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000
FXUS66 KOTX 300527
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1027 PM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The Labor Day weekend will be cooler than normal with locally
breezy conditions over portions of central and eastern
Washington. With the exception of some isolated mountain showers,
the majority of the Inland Northwest will remain dry through the
weekend. A continuation of the cool weather pattern is expected
through next week. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms
will probably occur in the Wednesday or Thursday time frame.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: Satellite shows an upper level trough descending into the
Inland Northwest with a mid level front over southeast Washington
extending northeast through Spokane and the Idaho Panhandle. The
lower levels are dry and most of the returns on radar with the
front have been virga with rain evaporating before reaching the
ground. The area that is most likely to see spotty light showers
is from the Blue Mountains extending northeast through Lewiston,
Camas Prairie, and Central Panhandle Mountains. The NAM shows a
narrow ribbon of elevated instability with 700-500mb theta-e lapse
rates near -1 C/KM in these areas. Radar trends have been trending
towards more convective high based cells in this area with even a
few lightning strikes noted on radar south of Pendleton. The best
instability should remain south and east of the Camas Prairie per
GFS and NAM solutions so for now will not put any nocturnal
thunder in the forecast.

Some minor updates to sky cover and low temperatures have also
been made.  Cloud cover tonight is expected to be most extensive
along and south of Interstate 90 as a secondary wave now moving
into SW Washington and NW Oregon tracks east of the Cascades. Also
while pressure gradients will ease overnight with decreasing
winds...winds in the Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane area, and
Palouse should stay slightly elevated in the 5-10 mph range. Thus
have raised low temps slightly for most areas.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06z TAFS: VFR conditions are expected to continue through 06z
Sunday. A weak cold front will continue to pull away from the area
tonight with winds decreasing winds. Behind the front an increase
in low level moisture Saturday morning and upslope flow into the
high terrain in southeast Washington will result in an area of
stratocumulus but CIGS at PUW should remain VFR. A few showers are
possible tonight around KLWS but most of these should evaporate
before reaching the ground. On Saturday afternoon as the
atmospheric begins to destabilize especially near the Canadian
border more showers are expected to develop over the mountains.
Winds will become gusty again Saturday afternoon. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  73  50  70  52  73 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  52  72  47  69  48  72 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Pullman        53  72  45  71  46  73 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       61  78  54  77  56  80 /  20  10  10  10  10   0
Colville       46  76  44  73  44  77 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      51  70  42  68  44  69 /  10  10  20  10  20  10
Kellogg        52  68  47  66  49  70 /  10  10  20  20  20  10
Moses Lake     52  79  50  77  50  80 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      58  77  57  76  57  79 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Omak           52  79  51  75  51  79 /  10  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




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000
FXUS66 KSEW 300430
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 PM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND FOR COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE NEAR 130W AT 02Z/7 PM THAT IS PUSHING A SMALL
AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS TOWARD THE COAST. RADAR IS PICKING UP THESE
SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGHER
CLOUD TOPS SHOWING UP ON IR IMAGERY. THE SHOWERS ARE WEAK ENOUGH AND
SMALL ENOUGH IN SIZE FOR JUST SOME BRIEF RAIN. THIS IS COVERED BY
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN WA THIS EVENING WILL
MOVE SLOWLY E OVER ID BY SATURDAY EVENING. WHILE THE LARGE TROUGH IS
OVERHEAD THE TRAILING SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 50N/145W AT
01Z/6 PM...AND EMBEDDED IN THE FAST WNW FLOW ALOFT...WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST WHICH WILL
SUPPORT A CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS WHEN THE PASSING SHORTWAVE
MOVES OVERHEAD.

FAST ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 170W THIS EVENING
WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE
PREVIOUS TWO SHORTWAVES SO POPS INCREASE FROM CHANCE TO LIKELY
SUNDAY EVENING. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ON MONDAY FOR ABOUT A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE NAM SHOWS A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE-LIKE PRECIP SIGNATURE
OVER PUGET SOUND TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH JUST WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA IS NOT
CONTINUOUS...SO THIS PRECIP SIGNATURE MAY BE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE OLYMPICS AND PERIODIC SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. BOTTOM LINE...CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS OVER PUGET SOUND. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 3 PM AFD...THE MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE - FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC - HAS GENERALLY COME TOGETHER
REGARDING DAYS 4 THRU 7 OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALL DIG A SHORTWAVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NW AS THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE
WEEK. PRECIPITATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES TUESDAY AND EXITS BY
LATE WEDNESDAY - A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. THEN RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE OFFSHORE AS THERMALLY
INDUCED LOW PRESSURE NOSES NORTH FROM NORTHERN CAL AND WESTERN
OREGON. THERE HAS BEEN SOME SPECULATION THAT PERHAPS WE MAY NOT SEE
80 DEGREES AGAIN THIS YEAR. THIS PATTERN CHANGE MAY PRODUCE SOME 80S
WHEN IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE.

OF INTEREST...KSEA HAS HAD 39 DAYS OF 80 DEGREES OR BETTER THIS YEAR
MAKING IT THE 6TH MOST NUMBER OF WARM DAYS ON RECORD. THE MOST IS 47
DAYS OF 80 OR WARMER SET IN 1958. IN SHARP CONTRAST...1954 HAD ONLY
2 DAYS OF 80 OR BETTER - WHEW! BUEHNER

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS WRN WA
TONIGHT...THEN MOVE TO FAR ERN WA BY SAT EVNG. LARGE-SCALE LIFT
WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY FOCUSED WITHIN THE PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN KSEA AND KPAE...BUT A LARGER AREA OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EVIDENT OFFSHORE. THE OFFSHORE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD ACROSS WRN WA TONIGHT AND SAT. AS A RESULT...CIGS WILL BECOME
LOWER THROUGH MID-DAY SAT...WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS LOWERING CIGS BELOW
020 AND REDUCING VSBYS INTO 3-5SM RANGE.

KSEA...THE TERMINAL SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...SO LIGHT S WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. WITH THE MOIST AIR MASS...CIGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT INTO
020-030 RANGE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PICK UP IN THE 12Z-20Z TIME
FRAME...WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS BRINGING CIGS INTO 010-015 RANGE WITH
SHOWERS REDUCING VSBYS TO 3-5SM. SPOTTIER SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY
CONTINUE WELL BEYOND 20Z AS THE PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE AGAIN
GETS WITHIN 5-10SM OF THE AIRFIELD...LIKELY REMAINING NORTH OF THE
AIRFIELD.     HANER


&&

.MARINE...WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SAT. A WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN S
AND SE WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND ON SUN NIGHT OR MON
MORNING...WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE.     HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML














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000
FXUS66 KPQR 300403
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
903 PM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...ALONG
WITH A PERIODIC THREAT OF SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL
BE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND LATE SUNDAY. DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER
RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
PAC. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY MOVE IN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...EXPECT A COOL AND PRIMARILY CLOUDY WEEKEND AS A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE WILL BE
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH. ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY VISIBLE ON WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE NEAR 130W WILL APPROACH THE COAST TONIGHT. SOME
ENHANCEMENT IN THE CLOUDS IS APPARENT ON SATELLITE AND THERE ARE ALSO
SOME ECHOES SHOWING UP ON RADAR OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME OF THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE GROUND LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SHOWER CHANCES LOOK MORE IMPRESSIVE FOR TOMORROW. A MORE WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 110+
KT JET WILL PROVIDE BETTER DYNAMICS. ALSO...THE FCST MODELS INDICATE
A SURFACE BOUNDARY OR WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE BEGINNING AROUND
MIDDAY. GIVEN THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE FCST MODELS ARE INDICATING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...DECIDED TO NUDGE
POPS UP A BIT WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE CASCADES BY
SUNDAY MORNING...BUT EXPECT CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AS
WE REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. AN
ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE IS BEING MODELED TO MOVE ONSHORE LATE IN
THE DAY...AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO WRING OUT A FEW MORE
LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY AS WEAK RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO
REBUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD NUDGE TEMPERATURES
BACK UP TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS AND PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER CHANCES.
PYLE

.LONG TERM...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER WESTERN
CANADA THAT EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
THIS TROUGH STICKS AROUND FOR A WHILE BEFORE BEING SHEARED OFF TO
THE EAST ON THURSDAY. STILL KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
DESPITE THE DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. LATE NEXT WEEK THE MODELS
TRY TO DEVELOP A CUTOFF LOW. THIS HAS ADDED A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY TO
THE FORECAST. AS OF NOW...LEANING TOWARDS IT BEING CLEARER AND DRIER
FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS ARE VFR OVER AREAS INLAND FROM THE COAST
THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN SO MUCH OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER...STRATUS
WITH MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND AND REACH INTERIOR
TERMINALS AROUND 30/10Z SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. STRATUS WILL THEN
LIFT TO VFR AND BEGIN TO BREAK UP MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY.

AT THE COAST...STRATUS AND FOG WITH LIFR CIGS AND VIS ALREADY
ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE COASTAL STRIP (INCLUDING KONP) AND IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN OVER THE REST OF THE COAST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND THEN EDGE FURTHER INLAND OVERNIGHT. STRATUS AND FOG IS
EXPECTED TO BACK OFF SHORE LATE MORNING SATURDAY WITH IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
...PRIMARILY AT THE COAST AND NORTH OF KSLE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
EARLY TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN DECKS AT OR ABOVE 7 KFT. STRATUS WITH
MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AROUND 30/10Z AND REMAIN THROUGH
MID MORNING. CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR LATE MORNING SATURDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS SAT AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INLAND. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY AND A THIRD...POTENTIALLY STRONGER
FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE SEAS WILL COMPRISE OF A
SMALL SW SWELL OF 1 TO 2 FEET AT AROUND 15 SECONDS AND A NORTHWEST
FRESH SWELL FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AROUND 9 TO 10 SECONDS. LIGHT
WIND WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY
NIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 6 FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
RETURN TO THE WATERS. WRIGHT/SCHNEIDER

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 300403
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
903 PM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...ALONG
WITH A PERIODIC THREAT OF SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL
BE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND LATE SUNDAY. DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER
RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
PAC. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY MOVE IN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...EXPECT A COOL AND PRIMARILY CLOUDY WEEKEND AS A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE WILL BE
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH. ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY VISIBLE ON WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE NEAR 130W WILL APPROACH THE COAST TONIGHT. SOME
ENHANCEMENT IN THE CLOUDS IS APPARENT ON SATELLITE AND THERE ARE ALSO
SOME ECHOES SHOWING UP ON RADAR OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME OF THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE GROUND LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SHOWER CHANCES LOOK MORE IMPRESSIVE FOR TOMORROW. A MORE WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 110+
KT JET WILL PROVIDE BETTER DYNAMICS. ALSO...THE FCST MODELS INDICATE
A SURFACE BOUNDARY OR WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE BEGINNING AROUND
MIDDAY. GIVEN THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE FCST MODELS ARE INDICATING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...DECIDED TO NUDGE
POPS UP A BIT WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE CASCADES BY
SUNDAY MORNING...BUT EXPECT CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AS
WE REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. AN
ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE IS BEING MODELED TO MOVE ONSHORE LATE IN
THE DAY...AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO WRING OUT A FEW MORE
LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY AS WEAK RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO
REBUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD NUDGE TEMPERATURES
BACK UP TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS AND PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER CHANCES.
PYLE

.LONG TERM...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER WESTERN
CANADA THAT EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
THIS TROUGH STICKS AROUND FOR A WHILE BEFORE BEING SHEARED OFF TO
THE EAST ON THURSDAY. STILL KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
DESPITE THE DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. LATE NEXT WEEK THE MODELS
TRY TO DEVELOP A CUTOFF LOW. THIS HAS ADDED A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY TO
THE FORECAST. AS OF NOW...LEANING TOWARDS IT BEING CLEARER AND DRIER
FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS ARE VFR OVER AREAS INLAND FROM THE COAST
THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN SO MUCH OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER...STRATUS
WITH MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND AND REACH INTERIOR
TERMINALS AROUND 30/10Z SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. STRATUS WILL THEN
LIFT TO VFR AND BEGIN TO BREAK UP MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY.

AT THE COAST...STRATUS AND FOG WITH LIFR CIGS AND VIS ALREADY
ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE COASTAL STRIP (INCLUDING KONP) AND IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN OVER THE REST OF THE COAST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND THEN EDGE FURTHER INLAND OVERNIGHT. STRATUS AND FOG IS
EXPECTED TO BACK OFF SHORE LATE MORNING SATURDAY WITH IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
...PRIMARILY AT THE COAST AND NORTH OF KSLE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
EARLY TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN DECKS AT OR ABOVE 7 KFT. STRATUS WITH
MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AROUND 30/10Z AND REMAIN THROUGH
MID MORNING. CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR LATE MORNING SATURDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS SAT AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INLAND. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY AND A THIRD...POTENTIALLY STRONGER
FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE SEAS WILL COMPRISE OF A
SMALL SW SWELL OF 1 TO 2 FEET AT AROUND 15 SECONDS AND A NORTHWEST
FRESH SWELL FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AROUND 9 TO 10 SECONDS. LIGHT
WIND WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY
NIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 6 FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
RETURN TO THE WATERS. WRIGHT/SCHNEIDER

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 300402
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
902 PM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The Labor Day weekend will be cooler than normal with locally
breezy conditions over portions of central and eastern
Washington. With the exception of some isolated mountain showers,
the majority of the Inland Northwest will remain dry through the
weekend. A continuation of the cool weather pattern is expected
through next week. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms
will probably occur in the Wednesday or Thursday time frame.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: Satellite shows an upper level trough descending into the
Inland Northwest with a mid level front over southeast Washington
extending northeast through Spokane and the Idaho Panhandle. The
lower levels are dry and most of the returns on radar with the
front have been virga with rain evaporating before reaching the
ground. The area that is most likely to see spotty light showers
is from the Blue Mountains extending northeast through Lewiston,
Camas Prairie, and Central Panhandle Mountains. The NAM shows a
narrow ribbon of elevated instability with 700-500mb theta-e lapse
rates near -1 C/KM in these areas. Radar trends have been trending
towards more convective high based cells in this area with even a
few lightning strikes noted on radar south of Pendleton. The best
instability should remain south and east of the Camas Prairie per
GFS and NAM solutions so for now will not put any nocturnal
thunder in the forecast.

Some minor updates to sky cover and low temperatures have also
been made.  Cloud cover tonight is expected to be most extensive
along and south of Interstate 90 as a secondary wave now moving
into SW Washington and NW Oregon tracks east of the Cascades. Also
while pressure gradients will ease overnight with decreasing
winds...winds in the Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane area, and
Palouse should stay slightly elevated in the 5-10 mph range. Thus
have raised low temps slightly for most areas.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00z TAFS: VFR conditions are expected to continue through 00z
Sunday. A weak cold front will passing through early this evening
will result in mid and high clouds and gusty winds. Winds will
subside overnight as pressure gradients relax and mixing potential
decreases. Behind the front an increase in low level moisture
Saturday morning and upslope flow into the high terrain in
southeast Washington will result in an area of stratocumulus but
CIGS at PUW should remain VFR. A few showers are possible over the
mountains this evening with the passing cold front...as well as
Saturday afternoon as the atmospheric begins to destabilize
especially near the Canadian border. Winds will become gusty again
Saturday afternoon. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  73  50  70  52  73 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  52  72  47  69  48  72 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Pullman        53  72  45  71  46  73 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       61  78  54  77  56  80 /  20  10  10  10  10   0
Colville       46  76  44  73  44  77 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      51  70  42  68  44  69 /  10  10  20  10  20  10
Kellogg        52  68  47  66  49  70 /  10  10  20  20  20  10
Moses Lake     52  79  50  77  50  80 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      58  77  57  76  57  79 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Omak           52  79  51  75  51  79 /  10  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 300402
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
902 PM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The Labor Day weekend will be cooler than normal with locally
breezy conditions over portions of central and eastern
Washington. With the exception of some isolated mountain showers,
the majority of the Inland Northwest will remain dry through the
weekend. A continuation of the cool weather pattern is expected
through next week. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms
will probably occur in the Wednesday or Thursday time frame.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: Satellite shows an upper level trough descending into the
Inland Northwest with a mid level front over southeast Washington
extending northeast through Spokane and the Idaho Panhandle. The
lower levels are dry and most of the returns on radar with the
front have been virga with rain evaporating before reaching the
ground. The area that is most likely to see spotty light showers
is from the Blue Mountains extending northeast through Lewiston,
Camas Prairie, and Central Panhandle Mountains. The NAM shows a
narrow ribbon of elevated instability with 700-500mb theta-e lapse
rates near -1 C/KM in these areas. Radar trends have been trending
towards more convective high based cells in this area with even a
few lightning strikes noted on radar south of Pendleton. The best
instability should remain south and east of the Camas Prairie per
GFS and NAM solutions so for now will not put any nocturnal
thunder in the forecast.

Some minor updates to sky cover and low temperatures have also
been made.  Cloud cover tonight is expected to be most extensive
along and south of Interstate 90 as a secondary wave now moving
into SW Washington and NW Oregon tracks east of the Cascades. Also
while pressure gradients will ease overnight with decreasing
winds...winds in the Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane area, and
Palouse should stay slightly elevated in the 5-10 mph range. Thus
have raised low temps slightly for most areas.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00z TAFS: VFR conditions are expected to continue through 00z
Sunday. A weak cold front will passing through early this evening
will result in mid and high clouds and gusty winds. Winds will
subside overnight as pressure gradients relax and mixing potential
decreases. Behind the front an increase in low level moisture
Saturday morning and upslope flow into the high terrain in
southeast Washington will result in an area of stratocumulus but
CIGS at PUW should remain VFR. A few showers are possible over the
mountains this evening with the passing cold front...as well as
Saturday afternoon as the atmospheric begins to destabilize
especially near the Canadian border. Winds will become gusty again
Saturday afternoon. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  73  50  70  52  73 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  52  72  47  69  48  72 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Pullman        53  72  45  71  46  73 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       61  78  54  77  56  80 /  20  10  10  10  10   0
Colville       46  76  44  73  44  77 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      51  70  42  68  44  69 /  10  10  20  10  20  10
Kellogg        52  68  47  66  49  70 /  10  10  20  20  20  10
Moses Lake     52  79  50  77  50  80 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      58  77  57  76  57  79 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Omak           52  79  51  75  51  79 /  10  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 292340
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
440 PM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The Labor Day weekend will be cooler than normal with locally
breezy conditions over portions of central and eastern
Washington. With the exception of some isolated mountain showers,
the majority of the Inland Northwest will remain dry through the
weekend. A continuation of the cool weather pattern is expected
through next week. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms
will probably occur in the Wednesday or Thursday time frame.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Saturday: The issues will be thunder chances, gusty
Cascade gap winds, and cloud-cover/temps. The frontal passage
should present the main focus as gusty winds and pressure
gradients continue to increase across the Cascades. These observed
differences support gusts to 35 mph in the Cascades gaps
(Wenatchee,etc). Cloud cover tonight will help to keep low temps
warmer than last night for N Idaho, limiting the fog potential
significantly from what we saw this morning. We have a slight
chance of rain showers across the Nrn Wa and Cascade zones this
evening, though with hourly pcpn rates from a trace to a hundredth
today with this frontal band, only very light, or no pcpn is
expected. For thunder, it doesn`t look like there`s much chance at
all, especially with the high boundary lyr convective inhibition
over Nrn Wa. This is true also for the Camas Prairie of Idaho near
Lewiston early evening, but to a much lesser extent. This is our
best chance though for thunder this evening. The post-frontal dry
slot will keep skies sunny, cooler and breezy Saturday for most
zones. Still...the best chance of isolated thunder/showers will
be near the BC border and Camas Prairie of Idaho. bz

Saturday night through Monday night: The region will be in
northwest flow aloft which will keep temperatures on the cool side
of seasonal normals for the holiday weekend. Some moisture and
energy will ride along the large scale flow, bringing scattered
showers to the area but this will likely be limited to the higher
elevations. The only threat of thunderstorms will be for the NE WA
mts and extreme N ID for Saturday evening. This will end overnight
as the instability associated with the cold pool aloft moves east.
Persistent northwest flow will mean partly cloudy skies, breezy
winds at times, and cooler temperatures. Daytime readings will be
in the 70s to low 80s for most valley locations. Overnight lows
will start to get a bit chilly for the northern sheltered valleys
where mid 30s will be possible. /Kelch

Tuesday through Friday: A trough settles into the region, with a
few showers and cool conditions. Tuesday to Wednesday a cold front
tracks through SE WA/lower ID Panhandle into the Great Basin. The
frontal passage looks relatively dry. However the upper trough on
its heels and deformation axis wrapping back toward the northern
mountains sags in. Moisture pooling in this deformation axis, in
tandem with lift and instability with the upper trough, will bring
a shower and thunderstorm threat. On Tuesday into Tuesday night
the chances will be around the Cascades and northern mountains
zones. On Wednesday chances continue in this region, but expand
south toward the Highway 2/1-90 corridor (between the eastern
Waterville Plateau to the C`dA area) as that deformation axis sags
south. Still, the best chances will remain closer to the
mountains. Between Wednesday night and Friday model agreement
falters. Loose agreement shows the upper trough stretches
northeast toward the High Plains and a second trough digs south
along the OR/CA coast. This leaves a weak mid-level trough over
the Inland NW, but not really much significant forcing. In
addition, the atmosphere begins to dry out. On Thursday pockets of
convective instability linger around the Cascades and northern
mountains. On Friday some instability come toward central Idaho
with the developing southwest flow, bordering southeast WA and the
lower Panhandle. So some slight shower chances will linger in
these areas, on their respective days. Otherwise look for mostly
dry conditions with a few clouds. Below normal temperatures are
expected through this period, but look for some moderation late
week as the trough loses its resolution. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00z TAFS: VFR conditions are expected to continue through 00z
Sunday. A weak cold front will passing through early this evening
will result in mid and high clouds and gusty winds. Winds will
subside overnight as pressure gradients relax and mixing potential
decreases. Behind the front an increase in low level moisture
Saturday morning and upslope flow into the high terrain in
southeast Washington will result in an area of stratocumulus but
CIGS at PUW should remain VFR. A few showers are possible over the
mountains this evening with the passing cold front...as well as
Saturday afternoon as the atmospheric begins to destabilize
especially near the Canadian border. Winds will become gusty again
Saturday afternoon. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  73  50  70  52  73 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  52  72  47  69  48  72 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Pullman        50  72  45  71  46  73 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       60  78  54  77  56  80 /  10  10  10  10  10   0
Colville       46  76  44  73  44  77 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      51  70  42  68  44  69 /  10  10  20  10  20  10
Kellogg        52  68  47  66  49  70 /  10  10  20  20  20  10
Moses Lake     50  79  50  77  50  80 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      56  77  57  76  57  79 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Omak           52  79  51  75  51  79 /  10  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 292340
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
440 PM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The Labor Day weekend will be cooler than normal with locally
breezy conditions over portions of central and eastern
Washington. With the exception of some isolated mountain showers,
the majority of the Inland Northwest will remain dry through the
weekend. A continuation of the cool weather pattern is expected
through next week. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms
will probably occur in the Wednesday or Thursday time frame.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Saturday: The issues will be thunder chances, gusty
Cascade gap winds, and cloud-cover/temps. The frontal passage
should present the main focus as gusty winds and pressure
gradients continue to increase across the Cascades. These observed
differences support gusts to 35 mph in the Cascades gaps
(Wenatchee,etc). Cloud cover tonight will help to keep low temps
warmer than last night for N Idaho, limiting the fog potential
significantly from what we saw this morning. We have a slight
chance of rain showers across the Nrn Wa and Cascade zones this
evening, though with hourly pcpn rates from a trace to a hundredth
today with this frontal band, only very light, or no pcpn is
expected. For thunder, it doesn`t look like there`s much chance at
all, especially with the high boundary lyr convective inhibition
over Nrn Wa. This is true also for the Camas Prairie of Idaho near
Lewiston early evening, but to a much lesser extent. This is our
best chance though for thunder this evening. The post-frontal dry
slot will keep skies sunny, cooler and breezy Saturday for most
zones. Still...the best chance of isolated thunder/showers will
be near the BC border and Camas Prairie of Idaho. bz

Saturday night through Monday night: The region will be in
northwest flow aloft which will keep temperatures on the cool side
of seasonal normals for the holiday weekend. Some moisture and
energy will ride along the large scale flow, bringing scattered
showers to the area but this will likely be limited to the higher
elevations. The only threat of thunderstorms will be for the NE WA
mts and extreme N ID for Saturday evening. This will end overnight
as the instability associated with the cold pool aloft moves east.
Persistent northwest flow will mean partly cloudy skies, breezy
winds at times, and cooler temperatures. Daytime readings will be
in the 70s to low 80s for most valley locations. Overnight lows
will start to get a bit chilly for the northern sheltered valleys
where mid 30s will be possible. /Kelch

Tuesday through Friday: A trough settles into the region, with a
few showers and cool conditions. Tuesday to Wednesday a cold front
tracks through SE WA/lower ID Panhandle into the Great Basin. The
frontal passage looks relatively dry. However the upper trough on
its heels and deformation axis wrapping back toward the northern
mountains sags in. Moisture pooling in this deformation axis, in
tandem with lift and instability with the upper trough, will bring
a shower and thunderstorm threat. On Tuesday into Tuesday night
the chances will be around the Cascades and northern mountains
zones. On Wednesday chances continue in this region, but expand
south toward the Highway 2/1-90 corridor (between the eastern
Waterville Plateau to the C`dA area) as that deformation axis sags
south. Still, the best chances will remain closer to the
mountains. Between Wednesday night and Friday model agreement
falters. Loose agreement shows the upper trough stretches
northeast toward the High Plains and a second trough digs south
along the OR/CA coast. This leaves a weak mid-level trough over
the Inland NW, but not really much significant forcing. In
addition, the atmosphere begins to dry out. On Thursday pockets of
convective instability linger around the Cascades and northern
mountains. On Friday some instability come toward central Idaho
with the developing southwest flow, bordering southeast WA and the
lower Panhandle. So some slight shower chances will linger in
these areas, on their respective days. Otherwise look for mostly
dry conditions with a few clouds. Below normal temperatures are
expected through this period, but look for some moderation late
week as the trough loses its resolution. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00z TAFS: VFR conditions are expected to continue through 00z
Sunday. A weak cold front will passing through early this evening
will result in mid and high clouds and gusty winds. Winds will
subside overnight as pressure gradients relax and mixing potential
decreases. Behind the front an increase in low level moisture
Saturday morning and upslope flow into the high terrain in
southeast Washington will result in an area of stratocumulus but
CIGS at PUW should remain VFR. A few showers are possible over the
mountains this evening with the passing cold front...as well as
Saturday afternoon as the atmospheric begins to destabilize
especially near the Canadian border. Winds will become gusty again
Saturday afternoon. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  73  50  70  52  73 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  52  72  47  69  48  72 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Pullman        50  72  45  71  46  73 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       60  78  54  77  56  80 /  10  10  10  10  10   0
Colville       46  76  44  73  44  77 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      51  70  42  68  44  69 /  10  10  20  10  20  10
Kellogg        52  68  47  66  49  70 /  10  10  20  20  20  10
Moses Lake     50  79  50  77  50  80 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      56  77  57  76  57  79 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Omak           52  79  51  75  51  79 /  10  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 292204 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND FOR COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ONSHORE TUESDAY BEFORE HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS FOR A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WITH A
DECENT JETSTREAM FOR LATE AUGUST. PEAK OF THE JET NEAR THE DATELINE
WAS ABOUT 135 KNOTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SO EMBEDDED SYSTEMS SHOULD
MOVE RIGHT ALONG AND THAT IS WHAT THE LATEST PROGS SHOW THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE OFFSHORE UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING INSIDE 130W THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT WITH LIMITED LIGHT SHOWERS. THE
ASSOCIATED VERY WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED INLAND EARLIER TODAY AND
PRODUCED QUITE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN - MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS.

THE NEXT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE HAD PROGRESSED TO JUST INSIDE 160W EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. PROGS ARE SIMILAR IN BRINGING THIS SYSTEM ONSHORE
SATURDAY PM FOR ANOTHER INCREASE IN SHOWERS. THE FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE
WAS MOVING ACROSS THE DATELINE AND AGAIN THE PROGS ARE RATHER
SIMILAR IN BRINGING THIS ONE ONSHORE LATE SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER SURGE
OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS BEING THE WETTEST OF THE SERIES IN A RELATIVE
MANNER.

AMOUNTS IN GENERAL SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH THE GREATEST TOTALS IN OROGRAPHIC MOUNTAIN AREAS. IN
ADDITION...EACH SYSTEM MAY INCLUDE A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE AS
WELL - NOTED IN THE MESOSCALE MODEL OUTPUT AND IN THE GRAPHICAL
FORECASTS. HEIGHTS RISE MONDAY FOR A DRYING TREND WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND CONVERGENCE ZONE. DAYTIME TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. BUEHNER

.LONG TERM...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE - FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC - HAS
GENERALLY COME TOGETHER REGARDING DAYS 4 THRU 7 OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ALL DIG A SHORTWAVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW AS THE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ARRIVES TUESDAY AND EXITS BY LATE WEDNESDAY - A BIT QUICKER THAN
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. THEN RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNS MORE OFFSHORE AS THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE NOSES NORTH
FROM NORTHERN CAL AND WESTERN OREGON. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
SPECULATION THAT PERHAPS WE MAY NOT SEE 80 DEGREES AGAIN THIS YEAR.
THIS PATTERN CHANGE MAY PRODUCE SOME 80S WHEN IT IS ALL SAID AND
DONE.

OF INTEREST...KSEA HAS HAD 39 DAYS OF 80 DEGREES OR BETTER THIS YEAR
MAKING IT THE 6TH MOST NUMBER OF WARM DAYS ON RECORD. THE MOST IS 47
DAYS OF 80 OR WARMER SET IN 1958. IN SHARP CONTRAST...1954 HAD ONLY
2 DAYS OF 80 OR BETTER - WHEW! BUEHNER

&&

.AVIATION...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER WESTERN WA AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT BREAKS UP OVER WRN WA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A DEEP MARINE LAYER
IN PLACE TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OUT OVERNIGHT...THEN LIFT
AND BREAK UP IN TYPICAL FASHION SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY.

KSEA...THE CLOUDS WERE BREAKING UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WEAK COLD
FRONT DISSIPATED. WITH A MARINE LAYER IN PLACE LOW CLOUDS WILL
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND THEN BREAK UP AGAIN MIDDAY SAT. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ARE LIGHT AND THE WIND THIS EVENING MAY TURN FROM SW TO
JUST LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT BROKE UP OVER WRN WA THIS AFTERNOON.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND THE
FCST IS FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND
ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW
ACROSS WESTERN WA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM SATURDAY FOR THE
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KSEW 292204 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND FOR COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ONSHORE TUESDAY BEFORE HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS FOR A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WITH A
DECENT JETSTREAM FOR LATE AUGUST. PEAK OF THE JET NEAR THE DATELINE
WAS ABOUT 135 KNOTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SO EMBEDDED SYSTEMS SHOULD
MOVE RIGHT ALONG AND THAT IS WHAT THE LATEST PROGS SHOW THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE OFFSHORE UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING INSIDE 130W THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT WITH LIMITED LIGHT SHOWERS. THE
ASSOCIATED VERY WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED INLAND EARLIER TODAY AND
PRODUCED QUITE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN - MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS.

THE NEXT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE HAD PROGRESSED TO JUST INSIDE 160W EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. PROGS ARE SIMILAR IN BRINGING THIS SYSTEM ONSHORE
SATURDAY PM FOR ANOTHER INCREASE IN SHOWERS. THE FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE
WAS MOVING ACROSS THE DATELINE AND AGAIN THE PROGS ARE RATHER
SIMILAR IN BRINGING THIS ONE ONSHORE LATE SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER SURGE
OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS BEING THE WETTEST OF THE SERIES IN A RELATIVE
MANNER.

AMOUNTS IN GENERAL SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH THE GREATEST TOTALS IN OROGRAPHIC MOUNTAIN AREAS. IN
ADDITION...EACH SYSTEM MAY INCLUDE A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE AS
WELL - NOTED IN THE MESOSCALE MODEL OUTPUT AND IN THE GRAPHICAL
FORECASTS. HEIGHTS RISE MONDAY FOR A DRYING TREND WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND CONVERGENCE ZONE. DAYTIME TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. BUEHNER

.LONG TERM...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE - FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC - HAS
GENERALLY COME TOGETHER REGARDING DAYS 4 THRU 7 OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ALL DIG A SHORTWAVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW AS THE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ARRIVES TUESDAY AND EXITS BY LATE WEDNESDAY - A BIT QUICKER THAN
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. THEN RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNS MORE OFFSHORE AS THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE NOSES NORTH
FROM NORTHERN CAL AND WESTERN OREGON. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
SPECULATION THAT PERHAPS WE MAY NOT SEE 80 DEGREES AGAIN THIS YEAR.
THIS PATTERN CHANGE MAY PRODUCE SOME 80S WHEN IT IS ALL SAID AND
DONE.

OF INTEREST...KSEA HAS HAD 39 DAYS OF 80 DEGREES OR BETTER THIS YEAR
MAKING IT THE 6TH MOST NUMBER OF WARM DAYS ON RECORD. THE MOST IS 47
DAYS OF 80 OR WARMER SET IN 1958. IN SHARP CONTRAST...1954 HAD ONLY
2 DAYS OF 80 OR BETTER - WHEW! BUEHNER

&&

.AVIATION...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER WESTERN WA AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT BREAKS UP OVER WRN WA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A DEEP MARINE LAYER
IN PLACE TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OUT OVERNIGHT...THEN LIFT
AND BREAK UP IN TYPICAL FASHION SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY.

KSEA...THE CLOUDS WERE BREAKING UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WEAK COLD
FRONT DISSIPATED. WITH A MARINE LAYER IN PLACE LOW CLOUDS WILL
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND THEN BREAK UP AGAIN MIDDAY SAT. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ARE LIGHT AND THE WIND THIS EVENING MAY TURN FROM SW TO
JUST LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT BROKE UP OVER WRN WA THIS AFTERNOON.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND THE
FCST IS FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND
ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW
ACROSS WESTERN WA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM SATURDAY FOR THE
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML













000
FXUS66 KPQR 292156
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
255 PM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INCREASING. THIS WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS
FOR THIS WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SATURDAY AND
LATE SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER RESUMES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR SHOWING A THIN BROKEN BAND OF PRECIP STRETCHING
FROM MT RAINIER TO OFFSHORE CASCADE HEAD BUT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT SO FAR. UPDATED POPS FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON TO NORTH AND WEST OF PORTLAND METRO AND SOUTH ALONG
THE COAST TO SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK. TOMORROW LOOKS A BIT BETTER FOR RAIN
BUT MOSTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONE LAST TROUGH COMES
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON ...AGAIN WITH THE HIGHEST POPS NORTH. THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE SUNDAY EVENING BUT EVEN THAT
SHOULD BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. ALL IN ALL...NONE OF THE
RAINFALL WILL BE TERRIBLY SIGNIFICANT.

AS FOR MODELS...THEY SEEM TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT THE OVERALL
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE SOME
INTERESTING DIFFERENCES IN THE LIKELINESS OF SAID PATTERN TO PRODUCE
PRECIP ON SUNDAY. THE ECM IS VERY GENEROUS WITH POPS ACROSS INLAND
AREAS PARTICULARLY EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH THE NAM AND GFS FAVORING
JUST NORTHERN AREAS AND LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ENDED UP WITH A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE GFS AND NAM WITH BEST RAIN
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT...WANING MONDAY AND CLEARING OUT COMPLETELY BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER WESTERN
CANADA THAT EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
THIS TROUGH STICKS AROUND FOR A WHILE BEFORE BEING SHEARED OFF TO
THE EAST ON THURSDAY. STILL KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
DESPITE THE DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. LATE NEXT WEEK THE MODELS
TRY TO DEVELOP A CUTOFF LOW. THIS HAS ADDED A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY TO
THE FORECAST. AS OF NOW...LEANING TOWARDS IT BEING CLEARER AND DRIER
FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS OF BKN040-070 AS A WEAK FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE MAY
BE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN...MOSTLY ALOFT AS THE FRONT PASSES MAINLY
NORTH OF KPDX. IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST AND EXPECT THAT TO LIFT TO MVFR AS THE FRONT PASSES AROUND
22Z. STRATUS SHOULD REFORM OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL ABOUT 21Z SATURDAY WHEN CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT TO
MVFR. SCHNEIDER

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CIGS OF 050-070 EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL
ABOUT 10Z WHEN CLOUDS WILL REFORM AND BECOME MVFR AFT AROUND
10Z.SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MINOR IMPACTS TO WINDS WHICH ARE
RELATIVELY LIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
SATURDAY AND A THIRD...POTENTIALLY STRONGER FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE SEAS WILL COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL OF
1 TO 2 FEET AT AROUND 15 SECONDS AND A NORTHWEST FRESH SWELL FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA AROUND 9 TO 10 SECONDS. LIGHT WIND WAVES THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK
AROUND 6 FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE
WATERS. SCHNEIDER

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 292150
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND FOR COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WITH A
DECENT JETSTREAM FOR LATE AUGUST. PEAK OF THE JET NEAR THE DATELINE
WAS ABOUT 135 KNOTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SO EMBEDDED SYSTEMS SHOULD
MOVE RIGHT ALONG AND THAT IS WHAT THE LATEST PROGS SHOW THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE OFFSHORE UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING INSIDE 130W THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT WITH LIMITED LIGHT SHOWERS. THE
ASSOCIATED VERY WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED INLAND EARLIER TODAY AND
PRODUCED QUITE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN - MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS.

THE NEXT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE HAD PROGRESSED TO JUST INSIDE 160W EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. PROGS ARE SIMILAR IN BRINGING THIS SYSTEM ONSHORE
SATURDAY PM FOR ANOTHER INCREASE IN SHOWERS. THE FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE
WAS MOVING ACROSS THE DATELINE AND AGAIN THE PROGS ARE RATHER
SIMILAR IN BRINGING THIS ONE ONSHORE LATE SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER SURGE
OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS BEING THE WETTEST OF THE SERIES IN A RELATIVE
MANNER.

AMOUNTS IN GENERAL SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH THE GREATEST TOTALS IN OROGRAPHIC MOUNTAIN AREAS. IN
ADDITION...EACH SYSTEM MAY INCLUDE A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE AS
WELL - NOTED IN THE MESOSCALE MODEL OUTPUT AND IN THE GRAPHICAL
FORECASTS. HEIGHTS RISE MONDAY FOR A DRYING TREND WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND CONVERGENCE ZONE. DAYTIME TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. BUEHNER

.LONG TERM...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE - FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC - HAS
GENERALLY COME TOGETHER REGARDING DAYS 4 THRU 7 OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ALL DIG A SHORTWAVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW AS THE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ARRIVES TUESDAY AND EXITS BY LATE WEDNESDAY - A BIT QUICKER THAN
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. THEN RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNS MORE OFFSHORE AS THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE NOSES NORTH
FROM NORTHERN CAL AND WESTERN OREGON. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
SPECULATION THAT PERHAPS WE MAY NOT SEE 80 DEGREES AGAIN THIS YEAR.
THIS PATTERN CHANGE MAY PRODUCE SOME 80S WHEN IT IS ALL SAID AND
DONE.

OF INTEREST...KSEA HAS HAD 39 DAYS OF 80 DEGREES OR BETTER THIS YEAR
MAKING IT THE 6TH MOST NUMBER OF WARM DAYS ON RECORD. THE MOST IS 47
DAYS OF 80 OR WARMER SET IN 1958. IN SHARP CONTRAST...1954 HAD ONLY
2 DAYS OF 80 OR BETTER - WHEW! BUEHNER

&&

.AVIATION...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER WESTERN WA AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT BREAKS UP OVER WRN WA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A DEEP MARINE LAYER
IN PLACE TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OUT OVERNIGHT...THEN LIFT
AND BREAK UP IN TYPICAL FASHION SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY.

KSEA...THE CLOUDS WERE BREAKING UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WEAK COLD
FRONT DISSIPATED. WITH A MARINE LAYER IN PLACE LOW CLOUDS WILL
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND THEN BREAK UP AGAIN MIDDAY SAT. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ARE LIGHT AND THE WIND THIS EVENING MAY TURN FROM SW TO
JUST LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT BROKE UP OVER WRN WA THIS AFTERNOON.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND THE
FCST IS FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND
ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW
ACROSS WESTERN WA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM SATURDAY FOR THE
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KSEW 292150
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND FOR COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WITH A
DECENT JETSTREAM FOR LATE AUGUST. PEAK OF THE JET NEAR THE DATELINE
WAS ABOUT 135 KNOTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SO EMBEDDED SYSTEMS SHOULD
MOVE RIGHT ALONG AND THAT IS WHAT THE LATEST PROGS SHOW THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE OFFSHORE UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING INSIDE 130W THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT WITH LIMITED LIGHT SHOWERS. THE
ASSOCIATED VERY WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED INLAND EARLIER TODAY AND
PRODUCED QUITE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN - MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS.

THE NEXT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE HAD PROGRESSED TO JUST INSIDE 160W EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. PROGS ARE SIMILAR IN BRINGING THIS SYSTEM ONSHORE
SATURDAY PM FOR ANOTHER INCREASE IN SHOWERS. THE FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE
WAS MOVING ACROSS THE DATELINE AND AGAIN THE PROGS ARE RATHER
SIMILAR IN BRINGING THIS ONE ONSHORE LATE SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER SURGE
OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS BEING THE WETTEST OF THE SERIES IN A RELATIVE
MANNER.

AMOUNTS IN GENERAL SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH THE GREATEST TOTALS IN OROGRAPHIC MOUNTAIN AREAS. IN
ADDITION...EACH SYSTEM MAY INCLUDE A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE AS
WELL - NOTED IN THE MESOSCALE MODEL OUTPUT AND IN THE GRAPHICAL
FORECASTS. HEIGHTS RISE MONDAY FOR A DRYING TREND WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND CONVERGENCE ZONE. DAYTIME TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. BUEHNER

.LONG TERM...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE - FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC - HAS
GENERALLY COME TOGETHER REGARDING DAYS 4 THRU 7 OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ALL DIG A SHORTWAVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW AS THE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ARRIVES TUESDAY AND EXITS BY LATE WEDNESDAY - A BIT QUICKER THAN
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. THEN RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNS MORE OFFSHORE AS THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE NOSES NORTH
FROM NORTHERN CAL AND WESTERN OREGON. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
SPECULATION THAT PERHAPS WE MAY NOT SEE 80 DEGREES AGAIN THIS YEAR.
THIS PATTERN CHANGE MAY PRODUCE SOME 80S WHEN IT IS ALL SAID AND
DONE.

OF INTEREST...KSEA HAS HAD 39 DAYS OF 80 DEGREES OR BETTER THIS YEAR
MAKING IT THE 6TH MOST NUMBER OF WARM DAYS ON RECORD. THE MOST IS 47
DAYS OF 80 OR WARMER SET IN 1958. IN SHARP CONTRAST...1954 HAD ONLY
2 DAYS OF 80 OR BETTER - WHEW! BUEHNER

&&

.AVIATION...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER WESTERN WA AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT BREAKS UP OVER WRN WA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A DEEP MARINE LAYER
IN PLACE TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OUT OVERNIGHT...THEN LIFT
AND BREAK UP IN TYPICAL FASHION SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY.

KSEA...THE CLOUDS WERE BREAKING UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WEAK COLD
FRONT DISSIPATED. WITH A MARINE LAYER IN PLACE LOW CLOUDS WILL
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND THEN BREAK UP AGAIN MIDDAY SAT. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ARE LIGHT AND THE WIND THIS EVENING MAY TURN FROM SW TO
JUST LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT BROKE UP OVER WRN WA THIS AFTERNOON.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND THE
FCST IS FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND
ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW
ACROSS WESTERN WA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM SATURDAY FOR THE
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KOTX 292145
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
245 PM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The Labor Day weekend will be cooler than normal with locally
breezy conditions over portions of central and eastern
Washington. With the exception of some isolated mountain showers,
the majority of the Inland Northwest will remain dry through the
weekend. A continuation of the cool weather pattern is expected
through next week. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms
will probably occur in the Wednesday or Thursday time frame.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Saturday: The issues will be thunder chances, gusty
Cascade gap winds, and cloud-cover/temps. The frontal passage
should present the main focus as gusty winds and pressure
gradients continue to increase across the Cascades. These observed
differences support gusts to 35 mph in the Cascades gaps
(Wenatchee,etc). Cloud cover tonight will help to keep low temps
warmer than last night for N Idaho, limiting the fog potential
significantly from what we saw this morning. We have a slight
chance of rain showers across the Nrn Wa and Cascade zones this
evening, though with hourly pcpn rates from a trace to a hundredth
today with this frontal band, only very light, or no pcpn is
expected. For thunder, it doesn`t look like there`s much chance at
all, especially with the high boundary lyr convective inhibition
over Nrn Wa. This is true also for the Camas Prairie of Idaho near
Lewiston early evening, but to a much lesser extent. This is our
best chance though for thunder this evening. The post-frontal dry
slot will keep skies sunny, cooler and breezy Saturday for most
zones. Still...the best chance of isolated thunder/showers will
be near the BC border and Camas Prairie of Idaho. bz

Saturday night through Monday night: The region will be in
northwest flow aloft which will keep temperatures on the cool side
of seasonal normals for the holiday weekend. . Some moisture and
energy will ride along the large scale flow, bringing scattered
showers to the area but this will likely be limited to the higher
elevations. The only threat of thunderstorms will be for the NE WA
mts and extreme N ID for Saturday evening. This will end overnight
as the instability associated with the cold pool aloft moves east.
Persistent northwest flow will mean partly cloudy skies, breezy
winds at times, and cooler temperatures. Daytime readings will be
in the 70s to low 80s for most valley locations. Overnight lows
will start to get a bit chilly for the northern sheltered valleys
where mid 30s will be possible. /Kelch

Tuesday through Friday: A trough settles into the region, with a
few showers and cool conditions. Tuesday to Wednesday a cold front
tracks through SE WA/lower ID Panhandle into the Great Basin. The
frontal passage looks relatively dry. However the upper trough on
its heels and deformation axis wrapping back toward the northern
mountains sags in. Moisture pooling in this deformation axis, in
tandem with lift and instability with the upper trough, will bring
a shower and thunderstorm threat. On Tuesday into Tuesday night
the chances will be around the Cascades and northern mountains
zones. On Wednesday chances continue in this region, but expand
south toward the Highway 2/1-90 corridor (between the eastern
Waterville Plateau to the C`dA area) as that deformation axis sags
south. Still, the best chances will remain closer to the
mountains. Between Wednesday night and Friday model agreement
falters. Loose agreement shows the upper trough stretches
northeast toward the High Plains and a second trough digs south
along the OR/CA coast. This leaves a weak mid-level trough over
the Inland NW, but not really much significant forcing. In
addition, the atmosphere begins to dry out. On Thursday pockets of
convective instability linger around the Cascades and northern
mountains. On Friday some instability come toward central Idaho
with the developing southwest flow, bordering southeast WA and the
lower Panhandle. So some slight shower chances will linger in
these areas, on their respective days. Otherwise look for a mostly
dry conditions with a few clouds. Below normal temperatures are
expected through this period, but look for some moderation late
week as the trough loses its resolution. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A cool frontal boundary will move through the TAF sites
today. Expect west to southwest winds to increase late this
afternoon and early evening with gusts to 25 mph. Gusts to 35 mph
is possible for keat. Increasing clouds will produce ceilings
that remain VFR with no pcpn anticipated. Skies will then clear
overnight. There will be areas of haze, or thin, non-restricting
vsbys from smoke, but the smoke will be well aloft.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  73  50  70  52  73 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  52  72  47  69  48  72 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Pullman        50  72  45  71  46  73 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       60  78  54  77  56  80 /  10  10  10  10  10   0
Colville       46  76  44  73  44  77 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      51  70  42  68  44  69 /  10  10  20  10  20  10
Kellogg        52  68  47  66  49  70 /  10  10  20  20  20  10
Moses Lake     50  79  50  77  50  80 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      56  77  57  76  57  79 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Omak           52  79  51  75  51  79 /  10  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 292145
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
245 PM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The Labor Day weekend will be cooler than normal with locally
breezy conditions over portions of central and eastern
Washington. With the exception of some isolated mountain showers,
the majority of the Inland Northwest will remain dry through the
weekend. A continuation of the cool weather pattern is expected
through next week. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms
will probably occur in the Wednesday or Thursday time frame.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Saturday: The issues will be thunder chances, gusty
Cascade gap winds, and cloud-cover/temps. The frontal passage
should present the main focus as gusty winds and pressure
gradients continue to increase across the Cascades. These observed
differences support gusts to 35 mph in the Cascades gaps
(Wenatchee,etc). Cloud cover tonight will help to keep low temps
warmer than last night for N Idaho, limiting the fog potential
significantly from what we saw this morning. We have a slight
chance of rain showers across the Nrn Wa and Cascade zones this
evening, though with hourly pcpn rates from a trace to a hundredth
today with this frontal band, only very light, or no pcpn is
expected. For thunder, it doesn`t look like there`s much chance at
all, especially with the high boundary lyr convective inhibition
over Nrn Wa. This is true also for the Camas Prairie of Idaho near
Lewiston early evening, but to a much lesser extent. This is our
best chance though for thunder this evening. The post-frontal dry
slot will keep skies sunny, cooler and breezy Saturday for most
zones. Still...the best chance of isolated thunder/showers will
be near the BC border and Camas Prairie of Idaho. bz

Saturday night through Monday night: The region will be in
northwest flow aloft which will keep temperatures on the cool side
of seasonal normals for the holiday weekend. . Some moisture and
energy will ride along the large scale flow, bringing scattered
showers to the area but this will likely be limited to the higher
elevations. The only threat of thunderstorms will be for the NE WA
mts and extreme N ID for Saturday evening. This will end overnight
as the instability associated with the cold pool aloft moves east.
Persistent northwest flow will mean partly cloudy skies, breezy
winds at times, and cooler temperatures. Daytime readings will be
in the 70s to low 80s for most valley locations. Overnight lows
will start to get a bit chilly for the northern sheltered valleys
where mid 30s will be possible. /Kelch

Tuesday through Friday: A trough settles into the region, with a
few showers and cool conditions. Tuesday to Wednesday a cold front
tracks through SE WA/lower ID Panhandle into the Great Basin. The
frontal passage looks relatively dry. However the upper trough on
its heels and deformation axis wrapping back toward the northern
mountains sags in. Moisture pooling in this deformation axis, in
tandem with lift and instability with the upper trough, will bring
a shower and thunderstorm threat. On Tuesday into Tuesday night
the chances will be around the Cascades and northern mountains
zones. On Wednesday chances continue in this region, but expand
south toward the Highway 2/1-90 corridor (between the eastern
Waterville Plateau to the C`dA area) as that deformation axis sags
south. Still, the best chances will remain closer to the
mountains. Between Wednesday night and Friday model agreement
falters. Loose agreement shows the upper trough stretches
northeast toward the High Plains and a second trough digs south
along the OR/CA coast. This leaves a weak mid-level trough over
the Inland NW, but not really much significant forcing. In
addition, the atmosphere begins to dry out. On Thursday pockets of
convective instability linger around the Cascades and northern
mountains. On Friday some instability come toward central Idaho
with the developing southwest flow, bordering southeast WA and the
lower Panhandle. So some slight shower chances will linger in
these areas, on their respective days. Otherwise look for a mostly
dry conditions with a few clouds. Below normal temperatures are
expected through this period, but look for some moderation late
week as the trough loses its resolution. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A cool frontal boundary will move through the TAF sites
today. Expect west to southwest winds to increase late this
afternoon and early evening with gusts to 25 mph. Gusts to 35 mph
is possible for keat. Increasing clouds will produce ceilings
that remain VFR with no pcpn anticipated. Skies will then clear
overnight. There will be areas of haze, or thin, non-restricting
vsbys from smoke, but the smoke will be well aloft.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  73  50  70  52  73 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  52  72  47  69  48  72 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Pullman        50  72  45  71  46  73 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       60  78  54  77  56  80 /  10  10  10  10  10   0
Colville       46  76  44  73  44  77 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      51  70  42  68  44  69 /  10  10  20  10  20  10
Kellogg        52  68  47  66  49  70 /  10  10  20  20  20  10
Moses Lake     50  79  50  77  50  80 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      56  77  57  76  57  79 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Omak           52  79  51  75  51  79 /  10  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 292145
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
245 PM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The Labor Day weekend will be cooler than normal with locally
breezy conditions over portions of central and eastern
Washington. With the exception of some isolated mountain showers,
the majority of the Inland Northwest will remain dry through the
weekend. A continuation of the cool weather pattern is expected
through next week. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms
will probably occur in the Wednesday or Thursday time frame.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Saturday: The issues will be thunder chances, gusty
Cascade gap winds, and cloud-cover/temps. The frontal passage
should present the main focus as gusty winds and pressure
gradients continue to increase across the Cascades. These observed
differences support gusts to 35 mph in the Cascades gaps
(Wenatchee,etc). Cloud cover tonight will help to keep low temps
warmer than last night for N Idaho, limiting the fog potential
significantly from what we saw this morning. We have a slight
chance of rain showers across the Nrn Wa and Cascade zones this
evening, though with hourly pcpn rates from a trace to a hundredth
today with this frontal band, only very light, or no pcpn is
expected. For thunder, it doesn`t look like there`s much chance at
all, especially with the high boundary lyr convective inhibition
over Nrn Wa. This is true also for the Camas Prairie of Idaho near
Lewiston early evening, but to a much lesser extent. This is our
best chance though for thunder this evening. The post-frontal dry
slot will keep skies sunny, cooler and breezy Saturday for most
zones. Still...the best chance of isolated thunder/showers will
be near the BC border and Camas Prairie of Idaho. bz

Saturday night through Monday night: The region will be in
northwest flow aloft which will keep temperatures on the cool side
of seasonal normals for the holiday weekend. . Some moisture and
energy will ride along the large scale flow, bringing scattered
showers to the area but this will likely be limited to the higher
elevations. The only threat of thunderstorms will be for the NE WA
mts and extreme N ID for Saturday evening. This will end overnight
as the instability associated with the cold pool aloft moves east.
Persistent northwest flow will mean partly cloudy skies, breezy
winds at times, and cooler temperatures. Daytime readings will be
in the 70s to low 80s for most valley locations. Overnight lows
will start to get a bit chilly for the northern sheltered valleys
where mid 30s will be possible. /Kelch

Tuesday through Friday: A trough settles into the region, with a
few showers and cool conditions. Tuesday to Wednesday a cold front
tracks through SE WA/lower ID Panhandle into the Great Basin. The
frontal passage looks relatively dry. However the upper trough on
its heels and deformation axis wrapping back toward the northern
mountains sags in. Moisture pooling in this deformation axis, in
tandem with lift and instability with the upper trough, will bring
a shower and thunderstorm threat. On Tuesday into Tuesday night
the chances will be around the Cascades and northern mountains
zones. On Wednesday chances continue in this region, but expand
south toward the Highway 2/1-90 corridor (between the eastern
Waterville Plateau to the C`dA area) as that deformation axis sags
south. Still, the best chances will remain closer to the
mountains. Between Wednesday night and Friday model agreement
falters. Loose agreement shows the upper trough stretches
northeast toward the High Plains and a second trough digs south
along the OR/CA coast. This leaves a weak mid-level trough over
the Inland NW, but not really much significant forcing. In
addition, the atmosphere begins to dry out. On Thursday pockets of
convective instability linger around the Cascades and northern
mountains. On Friday some instability come toward central Idaho
with the developing southwest flow, bordering southeast WA and the
lower Panhandle. So some slight shower chances will linger in
these areas, on their respective days. Otherwise look for a mostly
dry conditions with a few clouds. Below normal temperatures are
expected through this period, but look for some moderation late
week as the trough loses its resolution. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A cool frontal boundary will move through the TAF sites
today. Expect west to southwest winds to increase late this
afternoon and early evening with gusts to 25 mph. Gusts to 35 mph
is possible for keat. Increasing clouds will produce ceilings
that remain VFR with no pcpn anticipated. Skies will then clear
overnight. There will be areas of haze, or thin, non-restricting
vsbys from smoke, but the smoke will be well aloft.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  73  50  70  52  73 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  52  72  47  69  48  72 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Pullman        50  72  45  71  46  73 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       60  78  54  77  56  80 /  10  10  10  10  10   0
Colville       46  76  44  73  44  77 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      51  70  42  68  44  69 /  10  10  20  10  20  10
Kellogg        52  68  47  66  49  70 /  10  10  20  20  20  10
Moses Lake     50  79  50  77  50  80 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      56  77  57  76  57  79 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Omak           52  79  51  75  51  79 /  10  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 292145
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
245 PM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The Labor Day weekend will be cooler than normal with locally
breezy conditions over portions of central and eastern
Washington. With the exception of some isolated mountain showers,
the majority of the Inland Northwest will remain dry through the
weekend. A continuation of the cool weather pattern is expected
through next week. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms
will probably occur in the Wednesday or Thursday time frame.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Saturday: The issues will be thunder chances, gusty
Cascade gap winds, and cloud-cover/temps. The frontal passage
should present the main focus as gusty winds and pressure
gradients continue to increase across the Cascades. These observed
differences support gusts to 35 mph in the Cascades gaps
(Wenatchee,etc). Cloud cover tonight will help to keep low temps
warmer than last night for N Idaho, limiting the fog potential
significantly from what we saw this morning. We have a slight
chance of rain showers across the Nrn Wa and Cascade zones this
evening, though with hourly pcpn rates from a trace to a hundredth
today with this frontal band, only very light, or no pcpn is
expected. For thunder, it doesn`t look like there`s much chance at
all, especially with the high boundary lyr convective inhibition
over Nrn Wa. This is true also for the Camas Prairie of Idaho near
Lewiston early evening, but to a much lesser extent. This is our
best chance though for thunder this evening. The post-frontal dry
slot will keep skies sunny, cooler and breezy Saturday for most
zones. Still...the best chance of isolated thunder/showers will
be near the BC border and Camas Prairie of Idaho. bz

Saturday night through Monday night: The region will be in
northwest flow aloft which will keep temperatures on the cool side
of seasonal normals for the holiday weekend. . Some moisture and
energy will ride along the large scale flow, bringing scattered
showers to the area but this will likely be limited to the higher
elevations. The only threat of thunderstorms will be for the NE WA
mts and extreme N ID for Saturday evening. This will end overnight
as the instability associated with the cold pool aloft moves east.
Persistent northwest flow will mean partly cloudy skies, breezy
winds at times, and cooler temperatures. Daytime readings will be
in the 70s to low 80s for most valley locations. Overnight lows
will start to get a bit chilly for the northern sheltered valleys
where mid 30s will be possible. /Kelch

Tuesday through Friday: A trough settles into the region, with a
few showers and cool conditions. Tuesday to Wednesday a cold front
tracks through SE WA/lower ID Panhandle into the Great Basin. The
frontal passage looks relatively dry. However the upper trough on
its heels and deformation axis wrapping back toward the northern
mountains sags in. Moisture pooling in this deformation axis, in
tandem with lift and instability with the upper trough, will bring
a shower and thunderstorm threat. On Tuesday into Tuesday night
the chances will be around the Cascades and northern mountains
zones. On Wednesday chances continue in this region, but expand
south toward the Highway 2/1-90 corridor (between the eastern
Waterville Plateau to the C`dA area) as that deformation axis sags
south. Still, the best chances will remain closer to the
mountains. Between Wednesday night and Friday model agreement
falters. Loose agreement shows the upper trough stretches
northeast toward the High Plains and a second trough digs south
along the OR/CA coast. This leaves a weak mid-level trough over
the Inland NW, but not really much significant forcing. In
addition, the atmosphere begins to dry out. On Thursday pockets of
convective instability linger around the Cascades and northern
mountains. On Friday some instability come toward central Idaho
with the developing southwest flow, bordering southeast WA and the
lower Panhandle. So some slight shower chances will linger in
these areas, on their respective days. Otherwise look for a mostly
dry conditions with a few clouds. Below normal temperatures are
expected through this period, but look for some moderation late
week as the trough loses its resolution. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A cool frontal boundary will move through the TAF sites
today. Expect west to southwest winds to increase late this
afternoon and early evening with gusts to 25 mph. Gusts to 35 mph
is possible for keat. Increasing clouds will produce ceilings
that remain VFR with no pcpn anticipated. Skies will then clear
overnight. There will be areas of haze, or thin, non-restricting
vsbys from smoke, but the smoke will be well aloft.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  73  50  70  52  73 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  52  72  47  69  48  72 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Pullman        50  72  45  71  46  73 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       60  78  54  77  56  80 /  10  10  10  10  10   0
Colville       46  76  44  73  44  77 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      51  70  42  68  44  69 /  10  10  20  10  20  10
Kellogg        52  68  47  66  49  70 /  10  10  20  20  20  10
Moses Lake     50  79  50  77  50  80 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      56  77  57  76  57  79 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Omak           52  79  51  75  51  79 /  10  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 291801
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1101 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The Labor Day weekend will be cooler than normal with locally
breezy conditions over portions of central and eastern
Washington. With the exception of some isolated mountain showers,
the majority of the Inland Northwest will remain dry through the
weekend. A continuation of the cool weather pattern is expected
through next week. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms
will probably occur in the Wednesday or Thursday time frame.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today: The issues will be thunder chances, gusty Cascade
gap winds, and cloud-cover/temps. The frontal passage today (visit
the radar mosaic along the Olympic Peninsula attm for frontal pcpn
band), should present the main focus as gusty winds as pressure gradients
increase across the Cascades. However, these gradients may be a
bit less if cloud cover in the Columbia Basin helps to limit the
high temps we currently have in the fcst for today. This will be
monitored. Wind advsys are not expected (gusts to 45 mph). We have
a slight chance of rain showers across the Nrn Wa and Cascade
zones later today, though with hourly pcpn rates from a trace to
a hundredth attm near Seattle, only very light amnts are expected.
For thunder, it doesn`t look like there`s much chance at
all...especially with the high boundary lyr convective inhibition
we`re expecting over Nrn Wa. This is true also for the Camas
Prairie of Idaho near Lewiston early evening, but to a much lesser
extent. This is our best chance though for thunder this evening.
bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A cool frontal boundary will move through the TAF sites
today. Expect west to southwest winds to increase late this
afternoon and early evening with gusts to 25 mph. Gusts to 35 mph
is possible for keat. Increasing clouds will produce ceilings
that remain VFR with no pcpn anticipated. Skies will then clear
overnight. There will be areas of haze, or thin, non-restricting
vsbys from smoke, but the smoke will be well aloft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  53  73  48  71  50 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  82  52  72  45  70  47 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        83  50  72  43  72  45 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       89  60  78  53  77  54 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       82  46  76  43  74  45 /  10  10  10  20  10  10
Sandpoint      79  51  70  39  68  44 /  10  10  20  20  10  20
Kellogg        79  52  68  47  66  49 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Moses Lake     84  50  79  47  78  51 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      82  56  77  56  78  56 /   0  10   0  10   0   0
Omak           82  52  77  50  76  50 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 291801
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1101 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The Labor Day weekend will be cooler than normal with locally
breezy conditions over portions of central and eastern
Washington. With the exception of some isolated mountain showers,
the majority of the Inland Northwest will remain dry through the
weekend. A continuation of the cool weather pattern is expected
through next week. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms
will probably occur in the Wednesday or Thursday time frame.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today: The issues will be thunder chances, gusty Cascade
gap winds, and cloud-cover/temps. The frontal passage today (visit
the radar mosaic along the Olympic Peninsula attm for frontal pcpn
band), should present the main focus as gusty winds as pressure gradients
increase across the Cascades. However, these gradients may be a
bit less if cloud cover in the Columbia Basin helps to limit the
high temps we currently have in the fcst for today. This will be
monitored. Wind advsys are not expected (gusts to 45 mph). We have
a slight chance of rain showers across the Nrn Wa and Cascade
zones later today, though with hourly pcpn rates from a trace to
a hundredth attm near Seattle, only very light amnts are expected.
For thunder, it doesn`t look like there`s much chance at
all...especially with the high boundary lyr convective inhibition
we`re expecting over Nrn Wa. This is true also for the Camas
Prairie of Idaho near Lewiston early evening, but to a much lesser
extent. This is our best chance though for thunder this evening.
bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A cool frontal boundary will move through the TAF sites
today. Expect west to southwest winds to increase late this
afternoon and early evening with gusts to 25 mph. Gusts to 35 mph
is possible for keat. Increasing clouds will produce ceilings
that remain VFR with no pcpn anticipated. Skies will then clear
overnight. There will be areas of haze, or thin, non-restricting
vsbys from smoke, but the smoke will be well aloft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  53  73  48  71  50 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  82  52  72  45  70  47 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        83  50  72  43  72  45 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       89  60  78  53  77  54 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       82  46  76  43  74  45 /  10  10  10  20  10  10
Sandpoint      79  51  70  39  68  44 /  10  10  20  20  10  20
Kellogg        79  52  68  47  66  49 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Moses Lake     84  50  79  47  78  51 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      82  56  77  56  78  56 /   0  10   0  10   0   0
Omak           82  52  77  50  76  50 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 291654
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
954 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INCREASING. THIS WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS
FOR THIS WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SATURDAY AND
LATE SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER RESUMES NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY OFFSHORE
SHOULD STALL NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE UPPER
PORTION OF THE FRONT SHEARS OFF AND MOVES INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON SO
PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO N OREGON COAST AND SW
WASHINGTON COAST. RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING TOWARD MOSTLY THE SW WASHINGTON COAST. 15Z HRRR INDICATES A
BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVING ONTO THE COAST AND AFFECTING AS FAR SOUTH
AS TILLAMOOK COUNTY BETWEEN 19Z AND 23Z WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ANY PRECIP LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WOULD LIKELY BE OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
SO SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINS PARTICULARLY ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE
COAST RANGE AND CASCADES...WITH MOISTURE FAVORING NORTH OREGON AND
SOUTH WASHINGTON. COOLER TEMPS TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES SAT AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE MORE COOLING AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AGAIN MAINLY FOR THE COAST AND NORTHERN
INTERIOR ZONES. SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CONTINUED COOLER
TEMPERATURES. BOWEN/26

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING SUN
NIGHT AND MON.SURFACE FEATURES WEAKEN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
COAST...BUT 850MB AND 700MB ONSHORE WINDS WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.25
INCH WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS TO THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES.  FURTHER
ON IN THE WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOT BUILDING QUITE SO STRONGLY AS
BEFORE. THERE IS MORE ENERGY BEING PUT INTO CARVING OUT A TROUGH OVER
WESTERN CANADA THE EVENTUALLY SAGS INTO THE WESTERN U.S LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE AIR MASS WILL BE GENERALLY DRY SO THREAT OF SHOWERS REMAIN
LOW AT THIS POINT. HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
FORECAST. THESE WILL BE FURTHER REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64/26
&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THE FRONT WAS SEEN ON RADAR NEAR KHQM AT 930
AM WITH SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT.
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING
WITH IFR AND LIFR ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
INLAND. EXPECT THE LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ALONG THE N
OREGON COAST AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND LIFTS THE MARINE
INVERSION AFTER 18Z BECOMING MVFR. THERE WILL BE SOME DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN AS THE FRONT MOVES IN MIDDAY ALONG THE COAST.
INLAND...EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY FROM NORTH OF KAUO 19Z-22Z.
CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK OUT SOME AND LIFT AFT 20-21Z. MARINE LAYER
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SCHNEIDER

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS 015 TO 020 WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
20Z THEN LIFT SOME AND BECOME VFR AFTER 21-22Z. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH SOME
BRIEF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD TODAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY AND THEN SHIFT MORE
WESTERLY THIS EVENING. SEVERAL MORE WEAK FRONTS WILL PASS OVER THE
WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND. THE SEAS WILL COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW
SWELL AT AROUND 15 SECONDS AND A NORTHWEST FRESH SWELL FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA AROUND 9 SECONDS. LIGHT WIND WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 7
FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 291654
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
954 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INCREASING. THIS WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS
FOR THIS WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SATURDAY AND
LATE SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER RESUMES NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY OFFSHORE
SHOULD STALL NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE UPPER
PORTION OF THE FRONT SHEARS OFF AND MOVES INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON SO
PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO N OREGON COAST AND SW
WASHINGTON COAST. RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING TOWARD MOSTLY THE SW WASHINGTON COAST. 15Z HRRR INDICATES A
BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVING ONTO THE COAST AND AFFECTING AS FAR SOUTH
AS TILLAMOOK COUNTY BETWEEN 19Z AND 23Z WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ANY PRECIP LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WOULD LIKELY BE OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
SO SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINS PARTICULARLY ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE
COAST RANGE AND CASCADES...WITH MOISTURE FAVORING NORTH OREGON AND
SOUTH WASHINGTON. COOLER TEMPS TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES SAT AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE MORE COOLING AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AGAIN MAINLY FOR THE COAST AND NORTHERN
INTERIOR ZONES. SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CONTINUED COOLER
TEMPERATURES. BOWEN/26

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING SUN
NIGHT AND MON.SURFACE FEATURES WEAKEN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
COAST...BUT 850MB AND 700MB ONSHORE WINDS WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.25
INCH WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS TO THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES.  FURTHER
ON IN THE WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOT BUILDING QUITE SO STRONGLY AS
BEFORE. THERE IS MORE ENERGY BEING PUT INTO CARVING OUT A TROUGH OVER
WESTERN CANADA THE EVENTUALLY SAGS INTO THE WESTERN U.S LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE AIR MASS WILL BE GENERALLY DRY SO THREAT OF SHOWERS REMAIN
LOW AT THIS POINT. HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
FORECAST. THESE WILL BE FURTHER REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64/26
&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THE FRONT WAS SEEN ON RADAR NEAR KHQM AT 930
AM WITH SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT.
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING
WITH IFR AND LIFR ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
INLAND. EXPECT THE LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ALONG THE N
OREGON COAST AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND LIFTS THE MARINE
INVERSION AFTER 18Z BECOMING MVFR. THERE WILL BE SOME DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN AS THE FRONT MOVES IN MIDDAY ALONG THE COAST.
INLAND...EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY FROM NORTH OF KAUO 19Z-22Z.
CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK OUT SOME AND LIFT AFT 20-21Z. MARINE LAYER
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SCHNEIDER

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS 015 TO 020 WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
20Z THEN LIFT SOME AND BECOME VFR AFTER 21-22Z. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH SOME
BRIEF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD TODAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY AND THEN SHIFT MORE
WESTERLY THIS EVENING. SEVERAL MORE WEAK FRONTS WILL PASS OVER THE
WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND. THE SEAS WILL COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW
SWELL AT AROUND 15 SECONDS AND A NORTHWEST FRESH SWELL FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA AROUND 9 SECONDS. LIGHT WIND WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 7
FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 291654
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
954 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INCREASING. THIS WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS
FOR THIS WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SATURDAY AND
LATE SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER RESUMES NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY OFFSHORE
SHOULD STALL NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE UPPER
PORTION OF THE FRONT SHEARS OFF AND MOVES INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON SO
PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO N OREGON COAST AND SW
WASHINGTON COAST. RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING TOWARD MOSTLY THE SW WASHINGTON COAST. 15Z HRRR INDICATES A
BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVING ONTO THE COAST AND AFFECTING AS FAR SOUTH
AS TILLAMOOK COUNTY BETWEEN 19Z AND 23Z WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ANY PRECIP LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WOULD LIKELY BE OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
SO SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINS PARTICULARLY ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE
COAST RANGE AND CASCADES...WITH MOISTURE FAVORING NORTH OREGON AND
SOUTH WASHINGTON. COOLER TEMPS TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES SAT AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE MORE COOLING AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AGAIN MAINLY FOR THE COAST AND NORTHERN
INTERIOR ZONES. SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CONTINUED COOLER
TEMPERATURES. BOWEN/26

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING SUN
NIGHT AND MON.SURFACE FEATURES WEAKEN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
COAST...BUT 850MB AND 700MB ONSHORE WINDS WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.25
INCH WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS TO THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES.  FURTHER
ON IN THE WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOT BUILDING QUITE SO STRONGLY AS
BEFORE. THERE IS MORE ENERGY BEING PUT INTO CARVING OUT A TROUGH OVER
WESTERN CANADA THE EVENTUALLY SAGS INTO THE WESTERN U.S LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE AIR MASS WILL BE GENERALLY DRY SO THREAT OF SHOWERS REMAIN
LOW AT THIS POINT. HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
FORECAST. THESE WILL BE FURTHER REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64/26
&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THE FRONT WAS SEEN ON RADAR NEAR KHQM AT 930
AM WITH SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT.
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING
WITH IFR AND LIFR ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
INLAND. EXPECT THE LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ALONG THE N
OREGON COAST AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND LIFTS THE MARINE
INVERSION AFTER 18Z BECOMING MVFR. THERE WILL BE SOME DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN AS THE FRONT MOVES IN MIDDAY ALONG THE COAST.
INLAND...EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY FROM NORTH OF KAUO 19Z-22Z.
CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK OUT SOME AND LIFT AFT 20-21Z. MARINE LAYER
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SCHNEIDER

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS 015 TO 020 WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
20Z THEN LIFT SOME AND BECOME VFR AFTER 21-22Z. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH SOME
BRIEF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD TODAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY AND THEN SHIFT MORE
WESTERLY THIS EVENING. SEVERAL MORE WEAK FRONTS WILL PASS OVER THE
WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND. THE SEAS WILL COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW
SWELL AT AROUND 15 SECONDS AND A NORTHWEST FRESH SWELL FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA AROUND 9 SECONDS. LIGHT WIND WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 7
FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 291627
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
927 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The Labor Day weekend will be cooler than normal with locally
breezy conditions over portions of central and eastern
Washington. With the exception of some isolated mountain showers,
the majority of the Inland Northwest will remain dry through the
weekend. A continuation of the cool weather pattern is expected
through next week. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms
will probably occur in the Wednesday or Thursday time frame.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today: The issues will be thunder chances, gusty Cascade
gap winds, and cloud-cover/temps. The frontal passage today (visit
the radar mosaic along the Olympic Peninsula attm for frontal pcpn
band), should present the main focus as gusty winds as pressure gradients
increase across the Cascades. However, these gradients may be a
bit less if cloud cover in the Columbia Basin helps to limit the
high temps we currently have in the fcst for today. This will be
monitored. Wind advsys are not expected (gusts to 45 mph). We have
a slight chance of rain showers across the Nrn Wa and Cascade
zones later today, though with hourly pcpn rates from a trace to
a hundredth attm near Seattle, only very light amnts are expected.
For thunder, it doesn`t look like there`s much chance at
all...especially with the high boundary lyr convective inhibition
we`re expecting over Nrn Wa. This is true also for the Camas
Prairie of Idaho near Lewiston early evening, but to a much lesser
extent. This is our best chance though for thunder this evening.
bz

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: An upper level warm front will keep high clouds over the
region this morning, then a mid level cold front will slide across
the TAF sites by afternoon. Expect west to southwest winds to
increase late this afternoon and early evening with local gusts to
25 mph. Clouds and winds will decrease overnight. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  53  73  48  71  50 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  82  52  72  45  70  47 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        83  50  72  43  72  45 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       89  60  78  53  77  54 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       82  46  76  43  74  45 /  10  10  10  20  10  10
Sandpoint      79  51  70  39  68  44 /  10  10  20  20  10  20
Kellogg        79  52  68  47  66  49 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Moses Lake     84  50  79  47  78  51 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      82  56  77  56  78  56 /   0  10   0  10   0   0
Omak           82  52  77  50  76  50 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 291627
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
927 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The Labor Day weekend will be cooler than normal with locally
breezy conditions over portions of central and eastern
Washington. With the exception of some isolated mountain showers,
the majority of the Inland Northwest will remain dry through the
weekend. A continuation of the cool weather pattern is expected
through next week. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms
will probably occur in the Wednesday or Thursday time frame.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today: The issues will be thunder chances, gusty Cascade
gap winds, and cloud-cover/temps. The frontal passage today (visit
the radar mosaic along the Olympic Peninsula attm for frontal pcpn
band), should present the main focus as gusty winds as pressure gradients
increase across the Cascades. However, these gradients may be a
bit less if cloud cover in the Columbia Basin helps to limit the
high temps we currently have in the fcst for today. This will be
monitored. Wind advsys are not expected (gusts to 45 mph). We have
a slight chance of rain showers across the Nrn Wa and Cascade
zones later today, though with hourly pcpn rates from a trace to
a hundredth attm near Seattle, only very light amnts are expected.
For thunder, it doesn`t look like there`s much chance at
all...especially with the high boundary lyr convective inhibition
we`re expecting over Nrn Wa. This is true also for the Camas
Prairie of Idaho near Lewiston early evening, but to a much lesser
extent. This is our best chance though for thunder this evening.
bz

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: An upper level warm front will keep high clouds over the
region this morning, then a mid level cold front will slide across
the TAF sites by afternoon. Expect west to southwest winds to
increase late this afternoon and early evening with local gusts to
25 mph. Clouds and winds will decrease overnight. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  53  73  48  71  50 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  82  52  72  45  70  47 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        83  50  72  43  72  45 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       89  60  78  53  77  54 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       82  46  76  43  74  45 /  10  10  10  20  10  10
Sandpoint      79  51  70  39  68  44 /  10  10  20  20  10  20
Kellogg        79  52  68  47  66  49 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Moses Lake     84  50  79  47  78  51 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      82  56  77  56  78  56 /   0  10   0  10   0   0
Omak           82  52  77  50  76  50 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 291627
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
927 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The Labor Day weekend will be cooler than normal with locally
breezy conditions over portions of central and eastern
Washington. With the exception of some isolated mountain showers,
the majority of the Inland Northwest will remain dry through the
weekend. A continuation of the cool weather pattern is expected
through next week. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms
will probably occur in the Wednesday or Thursday time frame.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today: The issues will be thunder chances, gusty Cascade
gap winds, and cloud-cover/temps. The frontal passage today (visit
the radar mosaic along the Olympic Peninsula attm for frontal pcpn
band), should present the main focus as gusty winds as pressure gradients
increase across the Cascades. However, these gradients may be a
bit less if cloud cover in the Columbia Basin helps to limit the
high temps we currently have in the fcst for today. This will be
monitored. Wind advsys are not expected (gusts to 45 mph). We have
a slight chance of rain showers across the Nrn Wa and Cascade
zones later today, though with hourly pcpn rates from a trace to
a hundredth attm near Seattle, only very light amnts are expected.
For thunder, it doesn`t look like there`s much chance at
all...especially with the high boundary lyr convective inhibition
we`re expecting over Nrn Wa. This is true also for the Camas
Prairie of Idaho near Lewiston early evening, but to a much lesser
extent. This is our best chance though for thunder this evening.
bz

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: An upper level warm front will keep high clouds over the
region this morning, then a mid level cold front will slide across
the TAF sites by afternoon. Expect west to southwest winds to
increase late this afternoon and early evening with local gusts to
25 mph. Clouds and winds will decrease overnight. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  53  73  48  71  50 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  82  52  72  45  70  47 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        83  50  72  43  72  45 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       89  60  78  53  77  54 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       82  46  76  43  74  45 /  10  10  10  20  10  10
Sandpoint      79  51  70  39  68  44 /  10  10  20  20  10  20
Kellogg        79  52  68  47  66  49 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Moses Lake     84  50  79  47  78  51 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      82  56  77  56  78  56 /   0  10   0  10   0   0
Omak           82  52  77  50  76  50 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 291627
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
927 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The Labor Day weekend will be cooler than normal with locally
breezy conditions over portions of central and eastern
Washington. With the exception of some isolated mountain showers,
the majority of the Inland Northwest will remain dry through the
weekend. A continuation of the cool weather pattern is expected
through next week. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms
will probably occur in the Wednesday or Thursday time frame.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today: The issues will be thunder chances, gusty Cascade
gap winds, and cloud-cover/temps. The frontal passage today (visit
the radar mosaic along the Olympic Peninsula attm for frontal pcpn
band), should present the main focus as gusty winds as pressure gradients
increase across the Cascades. However, these gradients may be a
bit less if cloud cover in the Columbia Basin helps to limit the
high temps we currently have in the fcst for today. This will be
monitored. Wind advsys are not expected (gusts to 45 mph). We have
a slight chance of rain showers across the Nrn Wa and Cascade
zones later today, though with hourly pcpn rates from a trace to
a hundredth attm near Seattle, only very light amnts are expected.
For thunder, it doesn`t look like there`s much chance at
all...especially with the high boundary lyr convective inhibition
we`re expecting over Nrn Wa. This is true also for the Camas
Prairie of Idaho near Lewiston early evening, but to a much lesser
extent. This is our best chance though for thunder this evening.
bz

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: An upper level warm front will keep high clouds over the
region this morning, then a mid level cold front will slide across
the TAF sites by afternoon. Expect west to southwest winds to
increase late this afternoon and early evening with local gusts to
25 mph. Clouds and winds will decrease overnight. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  53  73  48  71  50 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  82  52  72  45  70  47 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        83  50  72  43  72  45 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       89  60  78  53  77  54 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       82  46  76  43  74  45 /  10  10  10  20  10  10
Sandpoint      79  51  70  39  68  44 /  10  10  20  20  10  20
Kellogg        79  52  68  47  66  49 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Moses Lake     84  50  79  47  78  51 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      82  56  77  56  78  56 /   0  10   0  10   0   0
Omak           82  52  77  50  76  50 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 291535 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
835 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND FOR COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...JUST IN TIME FOR THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND
ASSOCIATED OUTDOOR EVENTS...A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN. MORE
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WITH A HEALTHY 120 KNOT JET
AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. AN UPPER TROUGH WAS APPROACHING 130W THIS
MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING ONSHORE AT THIS
HOUR WITH SOME EMBEDDED SHOWERS. THIS SYSTEM IS TIMED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN WA AND INTO THE CASCADES BY MIDDAY.
NESDIS NOTED THAT THE SOURCE OF THIS MOISTURE ORIGINATED FROM JAPAN
BACK ON AUGUST 21/22.

THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WAS ALSO SUPPORTING A WEAK PUGET
SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
ISSUED A NOWCAST FOR THIS MORNING PRECIPITATION.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR
170W THAT THE PROGS BRING ONSHORE SATURDAY PM FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF
SHOWERS. THEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS NEAR 165E THAT IS DUE TO ARRIVE
SUNDAY FOR MORE SHOWERS. 00Z PROGS HAD SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON
THESE SYSTEMS. WILL SEE WHAT THE 12Z GUIDANCE DOES FOR FURTHER
FINE-TUNING...YET THE NAM IS SATURDAY PM AND AGAIN SUNDAY PM.
DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN JUST A BIT BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. LESS
THAN SUNNY LABOR DAY WEEKEND FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. BUEHNER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT APPEARED THAT THE REGION WILL
BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE ON MON. BEYOND
MON...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WAS SOMEWHAT LOW. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS MIGHT BE LEANING TOWARD HOLDING ONTO AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA LONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. DUE TO LACK
OF CONFIDENCE...THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED WERE TO BLEND
BETTER WITH NEIGHBORS. NC

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING WRN WA TODAY. IN
SOME AREAS THE CIGS ARE RATHER LOW. VSBY WILL BE LOCALLY REDUCED IN
SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY.

KSEA...MORNING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT UP IN THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
THE PUGET SOUND AREA MIGHT SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
WITH THE VERY WEAK FRONT THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN WA TODAY. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND THE FCST IS FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN WA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM SATURDAY FOR THE
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 291535 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
835 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND FOR COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...JUST IN TIME FOR THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND
ASSOCIATED OUTDOOR EVENTS...A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN. MORE
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WITH A HEALTHY 120 KNOT JET
AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. AN UPPER TROUGH WAS APPROACHING 130W THIS
MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING ONSHORE AT THIS
HOUR WITH SOME EMBEDDED SHOWERS. THIS SYSTEM IS TIMED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN WA AND INTO THE CASCADES BY MIDDAY.
NESDIS NOTED THAT THE SOURCE OF THIS MOISTURE ORIGINATED FROM JAPAN
BACK ON AUGUST 21/22.

THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WAS ALSO SUPPORTING A WEAK PUGET
SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
ISSUED A NOWCAST FOR THIS MORNING PRECIPITATION.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR
170W THAT THE PROGS BRING ONSHORE SATURDAY PM FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF
SHOWERS. THEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS NEAR 165E THAT IS DUE TO ARRIVE
SUNDAY FOR MORE SHOWERS. 00Z PROGS HAD SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON
THESE SYSTEMS. WILL SEE WHAT THE 12Z GUIDANCE DOES FOR FURTHER
FINE-TUNING...YET THE NAM IS SATURDAY PM AND AGAIN SUNDAY PM.
DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN JUST A BIT BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. LESS
THAN SUNNY LABOR DAY WEEKEND FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. BUEHNER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT APPEARED THAT THE REGION WILL
BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE ON MON. BEYOND
MON...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WAS SOMEWHAT LOW. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS MIGHT BE LEANING TOWARD HOLDING ONTO AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA LONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. DUE TO LACK
OF CONFIDENCE...THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED WERE TO BLEND
BETTER WITH NEIGHBORS. NC

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING WRN WA TODAY. IN
SOME AREAS THE CIGS ARE RATHER LOW. VSBY WILL BE LOCALLY REDUCED IN
SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY.

KSEA...MORNING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT UP IN THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
THE PUGET SOUND AREA MIGHT SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
WITH THE VERY WEAK FRONT THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN WA TODAY. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND THE FCST IS FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN WA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM SATURDAY FOR THE
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 291535 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
835 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND FOR COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...JUST IN TIME FOR THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND
ASSOCIATED OUTDOOR EVENTS...A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN. MORE
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WITH A HEALTHY 120 KNOT JET
AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. AN UPPER TROUGH WAS APPROACHING 130W THIS
MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING ONSHORE AT THIS
HOUR WITH SOME EMBEDDED SHOWERS. THIS SYSTEM IS TIMED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN WA AND INTO THE CASCADES BY MIDDAY.
NESDIS NOTED THAT THE SOURCE OF THIS MOISTURE ORIGINATED FROM JAPAN
BACK ON AUGUST 21/22.

THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WAS ALSO SUPPORTING A WEAK PUGET
SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
ISSUED A NOWCAST FOR THIS MORNING PRECIPITATION.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR
170W THAT THE PROGS BRING ONSHORE SATURDAY PM FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF
SHOWERS. THEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS NEAR 165E THAT IS DUE TO ARRIVE
SUNDAY FOR MORE SHOWERS. 00Z PROGS HAD SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON
THESE SYSTEMS. WILL SEE WHAT THE 12Z GUIDANCE DOES FOR FURTHER
FINE-TUNING...YET THE NAM IS SATURDAY PM AND AGAIN SUNDAY PM.
DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN JUST A BIT BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. LESS
THAN SUNNY LABOR DAY WEEKEND FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. BUEHNER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT APPEARED THAT THE REGION WILL
BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE ON MON. BEYOND
MON...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WAS SOMEWHAT LOW. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS MIGHT BE LEANING TOWARD HOLDING ONTO AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA LONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. DUE TO LACK
OF CONFIDENCE...THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED WERE TO BLEND
BETTER WITH NEIGHBORS. NC

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING WRN WA TODAY. IN
SOME AREAS THE CIGS ARE RATHER LOW. VSBY WILL BE LOCALLY REDUCED IN
SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY.

KSEA...MORNING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT UP IN THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
THE PUGET SOUND AREA MIGHT SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
WITH THE VERY WEAK FRONT THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN WA TODAY. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND THE FCST IS FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN WA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM SATURDAY FOR THE
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 291535 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
835 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND FOR COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...JUST IN TIME FOR THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND
ASSOCIATED OUTDOOR EVENTS...A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN. MORE
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WITH A HEALTHY 120 KNOT JET
AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. AN UPPER TROUGH WAS APPROACHING 130W THIS
MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING ONSHORE AT THIS
HOUR WITH SOME EMBEDDED SHOWERS. THIS SYSTEM IS TIMED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN WA AND INTO THE CASCADES BY MIDDAY.
NESDIS NOTED THAT THE SOURCE OF THIS MOISTURE ORIGINATED FROM JAPAN
BACK ON AUGUST 21/22.

THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WAS ALSO SUPPORTING A WEAK PUGET
SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
ISSUED A NOWCAST FOR THIS MORNING PRECIPITATION.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR
170W THAT THE PROGS BRING ONSHORE SATURDAY PM FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF
SHOWERS. THEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS NEAR 165E THAT IS DUE TO ARRIVE
SUNDAY FOR MORE SHOWERS. 00Z PROGS HAD SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON
THESE SYSTEMS. WILL SEE WHAT THE 12Z GUIDANCE DOES FOR FURTHER
FINE-TUNING...YET THE NAM IS SATURDAY PM AND AGAIN SUNDAY PM.
DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN JUST A BIT BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. LESS
THAN SUNNY LABOR DAY WEEKEND FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. BUEHNER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT APPEARED THAT THE REGION WILL
BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE ON MON. BEYOND
MON...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WAS SOMEWHAT LOW. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS MIGHT BE LEANING TOWARD HOLDING ONTO AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA LONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. DUE TO LACK
OF CONFIDENCE...THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED WERE TO BLEND
BETTER WITH NEIGHBORS. NC

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING WRN WA TODAY. IN
SOME AREAS THE CIGS ARE RATHER LOW. VSBY WILL BE LOCALLY REDUCED IN
SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY.

KSEA...MORNING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT UP IN THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
THE PUGET SOUND AREA MIGHT SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
WITH THE VERY WEAK FRONT THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN WA TODAY. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND THE FCST IS FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN WA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM SATURDAY FOR THE
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KOTX 291121
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
420 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The Labor Day weekend will be cooler than normal with locally
breezy conditions over portions of central and eastern
Washington. With the exception of some isolated mountain showers,
the majority of the Inland Northwest will remain dry through the
weekend. A continuation of the cool weather pattern is expected
through next week. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms
will probably occur in the Wednesday or Thursday time frame.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday night: The weather will turn cooler, breezy
with mountain showers across the Inland Northwest as the weather
pattern evolves from a flat ridge to into an upper level trough.
Today will start the onset of the cooling with the arrival of a
cold front which will push across eastern Washington this
afternoon and reaching north Idaho by evening. Most of the
moisture will be in the mid to upper levels, which will lead to
little if any precipitation except for the mountains. The best
chance of showers will be the Cascade crest. The frontal band
weakens as it pushes east with spotty mountains showers in
northeast Washington and north Idaho. Instability is lacking with
the weakening front and will keep the mention of thunder for
today. Winds will kick up behind the front from the lee side
valleys into the Columbia Basin with speeds of 15 to 25 mph.
Temperatures will cool a few degrees with readings near seasonal
normals. Winds and chance of showers decrease this evening as a
drier pushes in from the west and skies clear. 500mb heights
continue to fall into Saturday as an upper trough digs over the
region as a shortwave rolls through the flow by Saturday afternoon
and evening. Expect another chance of showers primarily for the
mountains. Instability will be the highest near the Canadian
border where the cold pool will reside. Will keep the mention of
thunderstorms across the north during Saturday afternoon and
evening. Westerly winds will kick up again especially in the lee
side valleys into the Columbia Basin. More cooling expected with
widespread 70s across the low lands. /rfox.

Sunday through Thursday: Cooler than average temperatures will be
the rule next week under a persistent longwave trough over the
Pacific Northwest. The medium range models are in good agreement
that a large 500mb ridge will be anchored over the southeastern
and south central U.S. bringing hotter than average temperatures
to portions of the country that received very little heat much of
the summer. The prevailing mid-level flow pattern Sunday through
Tuesday is expected to be northwesterly which is generally a dry
pattern this time of year. The models are progging a progressive
shortwave in the northwest flow on Monday which may bring enough
moisture with it for mountain showers with the best shot of rain
along the Cascade Crest. At most, light rain amounts are expected
given the lack of deep layer instability.

There is reasonably good agreement that the trough will buckle
Tuesday night into Wednesday bringing a reinforcing shot of
cooler air into the region. It also appears that an upper level
cold pool will set up over northern Washington and the far north
Idaho Panhandle on Wednesday suggesting the potential for widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms. At this time the best
combination of lift and instability looks to be over northeast
Washington and far north Idaho...away from the Cascade burn scars.
/GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: An upper level warm front will keep high clouds over the
region this morning, then a mid level cold front will slide across
the TAF sites by afternoon. Expect west to southwest winds to
increase late this afternoon and early evening with local gusts to
25 mph. Clouds and winds will decrease overnight. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        81  53  73  48  71  50 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  81  52  72  45  70  47 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        81  50  72  43  72  45 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       88  60  78  53  77  54 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       82  46  76  43  74  45 /  10  10  10  20  10  10
Sandpoint      78  51  70  39  68  44 /   0  10  20  20  10  20
Kellogg        77  52  68  47  66  49 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Moses Lake     84  50  79  47  78  51 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      82  56  77  56  78  56 /   0  10   0  10   0   0
Omak           82  52  77  50  76  50 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 291121
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
420 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The Labor Day weekend will be cooler than normal with locally
breezy conditions over portions of central and eastern
Washington. With the exception of some isolated mountain showers,
the majority of the Inland Northwest will remain dry through the
weekend. A continuation of the cool weather pattern is expected
through next week. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms
will probably occur in the Wednesday or Thursday time frame.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday night: The weather will turn cooler, breezy
with mountain showers across the Inland Northwest as the weather
pattern evolves from a flat ridge to into an upper level trough.
Today will start the onset of the cooling with the arrival of a
cold front which will push across eastern Washington this
afternoon and reaching north Idaho by evening. Most of the
moisture will be in the mid to upper levels, which will lead to
little if any precipitation except for the mountains. The best
chance of showers will be the Cascade crest. The frontal band
weakens as it pushes east with spotty mountains showers in
northeast Washington and north Idaho. Instability is lacking with
the weakening front and will keep the mention of thunder for
today. Winds will kick up behind the front from the lee side
valleys into the Columbia Basin with speeds of 15 to 25 mph.
Temperatures will cool a few degrees with readings near seasonal
normals. Winds and chance of showers decrease this evening as a
drier pushes in from the west and skies clear. 500mb heights
continue to fall into Saturday as an upper trough digs over the
region as a shortwave rolls through the flow by Saturday afternoon
and evening. Expect another chance of showers primarily for the
mountains. Instability will be the highest near the Canadian
border where the cold pool will reside. Will keep the mention of
thunderstorms across the north during Saturday afternoon and
evening. Westerly winds will kick up again especially in the lee
side valleys into the Columbia Basin. More cooling expected with
widespread 70s across the low lands. /rfox.

Sunday through Thursday: Cooler than average temperatures will be
the rule next week under a persistent longwave trough over the
Pacific Northwest. The medium range models are in good agreement
that a large 500mb ridge will be anchored over the southeastern
and south central U.S. bringing hotter than average temperatures
to portions of the country that received very little heat much of
the summer. The prevailing mid-level flow pattern Sunday through
Tuesday is expected to be northwesterly which is generally a dry
pattern this time of year. The models are progging a progressive
shortwave in the northwest flow on Monday which may bring enough
moisture with it for mountain showers with the best shot of rain
along the Cascade Crest. At most, light rain amounts are expected
given the lack of deep layer instability.

There is reasonably good agreement that the trough will buckle
Tuesday night into Wednesday bringing a reinforcing shot of
cooler air into the region. It also appears that an upper level
cold pool will set up over northern Washington and the far north
Idaho Panhandle on Wednesday suggesting the potential for widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms. At this time the best
combination of lift and instability looks to be over northeast
Washington and far north Idaho...away from the Cascade burn scars.
/GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: An upper level warm front will keep high clouds over the
region this morning, then a mid level cold front will slide across
the TAF sites by afternoon. Expect west to southwest winds to
increase late this afternoon and early evening with local gusts to
25 mph. Clouds and winds will decrease overnight. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        81  53  73  48  71  50 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  81  52  72  45  70  47 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        81  50  72  43  72  45 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       88  60  78  53  77  54 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       82  46  76  43  74  45 /  10  10  10  20  10  10
Sandpoint      78  51  70  39  68  44 /   0  10  20  20  10  20
Kellogg        77  52  68  47  66  49 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Moses Lake     84  50  79  47  78  51 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      82  56  77  56  78  56 /   0  10   0  10   0   0
Omak           82  52  77  50  76  50 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 291051
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
334 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INCREASING. THIS WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS
FOR THIS WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SATURDAY AND
LATE SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER RESUMES NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LOW TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA IS MOVING EAST TO SE AK/WESTERN B.C.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
NEAR SE ALASKA WITH A FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO
OFF THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON COAST NEAR 130W. THE SURFACE
FRONT SHOULD STALL NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE UPPER
PORTION OF THE FRONT SHEARS OFF AND MOVES INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN MAINLY AT THE COAST AND SW
WASHINGTON INTERIOR ZONES. LOWER MARINE CLOUDS WILL FILL MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR LOW LANDS DURING THE MORNING...WITH HIGHER LAYERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPS TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES SAT AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE MORE COOLING AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AGAIN MAINLY FOR THE COAST AND NORTHERN
INTERIOR ZONES. NO CHANGE IN TRENDS FOR SUN...AS MORE LIKELY TO SEE
DRY CONDITIONS WITH MIX OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS. WITH LOW POPS FOR THE
SW WA ZONES.

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING SUN
NIGHT AND MON.SURFACE FEATURES WEAKEN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
COAST...BUT 850MB AND 700MB ONSHORE WINDS WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.25
INCH WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS TO THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES.  FURTHER
ON IN THE WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOT BUILDING QUITE SO STRONGLY AS
BEFORE. THERE IS MORE ENERGY BEING PUT INTO CARVING OUT A TROUGH OVER
WESTERN CANADA THE EVENTUALLY SAGS INTO THE WESTERN U.S LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE AIR MASS WILL BE GENERALLY DRY SO THREAT OF SHOWERS REMAIN
LOW AT THIS POINT. HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
FORECAST. THESE WILL BE FURTHER REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64/26
&&

.AVIATION...LOW MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG ARE RESULTING IN IFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO FILL
IN MOST OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS MORNING...BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE BRUSH BY THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING...AND POSSIBLY GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE NORTH
OF KSLE. AREAS SOUTH OF KSLE WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY KEEP
SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND IN NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST AFT 21Z. STRATUS
AND MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN INLAND TONIGHT...AS WILL IFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF STRATUS
JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL AND ANOTHER BAND OF STRATUS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER. AM CONFIDENT IN MVFR CIGS
FOR THE AIRPORT THIS MORNING...BY 12Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFT
20Z...BUT ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK FRONT WILL KEEP CLOUDS WITH
BASES AROUND 5 KFT AGL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NE
WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 22Z. TJ

&&

.MARINE...MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS MARINE FORECAST AND THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF
THE NW...BRIEFLY SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
SEAS WILL COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK
AROUND 7 FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE
WATERS.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 291051 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
351 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CORRECTED MINOR TYPOS IN THE SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM SEGMENTS.

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND FOR COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THERE WAS SOME LIGHT PRECIP OCCURRING WELL OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME.
THE 0600 UTC GFS ARRIVED AND WAS WETTER THAN THE PREVIOUS CYCLE.
THE CURRENT FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE 0000 UTC RUN...AND MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE DRY SIDE.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROF WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT A WEAK COLD FRONT
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE
TROF ON SATURDAY. THUS...EXPECT COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS QUANTITATIVE PRECIP FORECASTS MIGHT BE
UNDERESTIMATING THE PRECIP AMOUNTS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE
SATELLITE-DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER /PWAT/ IMAGERY INDICATED
THAT...IN GENERAL...THE AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WAS
QUITE MOIST. PWAT VALUES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE OR
OVER 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WAS ALREADY
BECOMING ENTRAINED IN THE SYSTEM OFF OUR COAST.

EXPECT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THERE WERE SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN THE TIMING AND...TO A LESSER
DEGREE...THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE FASTER
IN EJECTING THIS SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA WHEREAS THE CANADIAN AND NAM
WERE A LITTLE SLOWER. HAVE CHOSEN TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS.

.LONG TERM...
IT APPEARED THAT THE REGION WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE ON MON. BEYOND MON...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WAS
SOMEWHAT LOW. IT LOOKS LIKE THE THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS MIGHT
BE LEANING TOWARD HOLDING ONTO AN UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA LONGER
THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE...THE ONLY CHANGES
MADE TO THE EXTENDED WERE TO BLEND BETTER WITH NEIGHBORS.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN WA
TODAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. CIGS ARE A
MIXED BAG BUT SHOULD SEE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS. 33

KSEA...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT SLY. CIGS WILL RAISE TO AROUND 3000 FT THIS AFTERNOON.
33

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN WA TODAY. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ON
SUNDAY. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN WA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM SATURDAY FOR THE
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 291051 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
351 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CORRECTED MINOR TYPOS IN THE SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM SEGMENTS.

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND FOR COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THERE WAS SOME LIGHT PRECIP OCCURRING WELL OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME.
THE 0600 UTC GFS ARRIVED AND WAS WETTER THAN THE PREVIOUS CYCLE.
THE CURRENT FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE 0000 UTC RUN...AND MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE DRY SIDE.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROF WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT A WEAK COLD FRONT
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE
TROF ON SATURDAY. THUS...EXPECT COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS QUANTITATIVE PRECIP FORECASTS MIGHT BE
UNDERESTIMATING THE PRECIP AMOUNTS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE
SATELLITE-DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER /PWAT/ IMAGERY INDICATED
THAT...IN GENERAL...THE AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WAS
QUITE MOIST. PWAT VALUES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE OR
OVER 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WAS ALREADY
BECOMING ENTRAINED IN THE SYSTEM OFF OUR COAST.

EXPECT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THERE WERE SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN THE TIMING AND...TO A LESSER
DEGREE...THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE FASTER
IN EJECTING THIS SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA WHEREAS THE CANADIAN AND NAM
WERE A LITTLE SLOWER. HAVE CHOSEN TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS.

.LONG TERM...
IT APPEARED THAT THE REGION WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE ON MON. BEYOND MON...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WAS
SOMEWHAT LOW. IT LOOKS LIKE THE THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS MIGHT
BE LEANING TOWARD HOLDING ONTO AN UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA LONGER
THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE...THE ONLY CHANGES
MADE TO THE EXTENDED WERE TO BLEND BETTER WITH NEIGHBORS.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN WA
TODAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. CIGS ARE A
MIXED BAG BUT SHOULD SEE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS. 33

KSEA...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT SLY. CIGS WILL RAISE TO AROUND 3000 FT THIS AFTERNOON.
33

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN WA TODAY. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ON
SUNDAY. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN WA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM SATURDAY FOR THE
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KPQR 291051
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
334 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INCREASING. THIS WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS
FOR THIS WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SATURDAY AND
LATE SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER RESUMES NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LOW TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA IS MOVING EAST TO SE AK/WESTERN B.C.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
NEAR SE ALASKA WITH A FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO
OFF THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON COAST NEAR 130W. THE SURFACE
FRONT SHOULD STALL NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE UPPER
PORTION OF THE FRONT SHEARS OFF AND MOVES INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN MAINLY AT THE COAST AND SW
WASHINGTON INTERIOR ZONES. LOWER MARINE CLOUDS WILL FILL MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR LOW LANDS DURING THE MORNING...WITH HIGHER LAYERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPS TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES SAT AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE MORE COOLING AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AGAIN MAINLY FOR THE COAST AND NORTHERN
INTERIOR ZONES. NO CHANGE IN TRENDS FOR SUN...AS MORE LIKELY TO SEE
DRY CONDITIONS WITH MIX OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS. WITH LOW POPS FOR THE
SW WA ZONES.

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING SUN
NIGHT AND MON.SURFACE FEATURES WEAKEN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
COAST...BUT 850MB AND 700MB ONSHORE WINDS WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.25
INCH WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS TO THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES.  FURTHER
ON IN THE WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOT BUILDING QUITE SO STRONGLY AS
BEFORE. THERE IS MORE ENERGY BEING PUT INTO CARVING OUT A TROUGH OVER
WESTERN CANADA THE EVENTUALLY SAGS INTO THE WESTERN U.S LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE AIR MASS WILL BE GENERALLY DRY SO THREAT OF SHOWERS REMAIN
LOW AT THIS POINT. HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
FORECAST. THESE WILL BE FURTHER REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64/26
&&

.AVIATION...LOW MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG ARE RESULTING IN IFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO FILL
IN MOST OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS MORNING...BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE BRUSH BY THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING...AND POSSIBLY GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE NORTH
OF KSLE. AREAS SOUTH OF KSLE WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY KEEP
SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND IN NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST AFT 21Z. STRATUS
AND MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN INLAND TONIGHT...AS WILL IFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF STRATUS
JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL AND ANOTHER BAND OF STRATUS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER. AM CONFIDENT IN MVFR CIGS
FOR THE AIRPORT THIS MORNING...BY 12Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFT
20Z...BUT ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK FRONT WILL KEEP CLOUDS WITH
BASES AROUND 5 KFT AGL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NE
WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 22Z. TJ

&&

.MARINE...MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS MARINE FORECAST AND THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF
THE NW...BRIEFLY SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
SEAS WILL COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK
AROUND 7 FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE
WATERS.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 291051
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
334 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INCREASING. THIS WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS
FOR THIS WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SATURDAY AND
LATE SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER RESUMES NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LOW TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA IS MOVING EAST TO SE AK/WESTERN B.C.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
NEAR SE ALASKA WITH A FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO
OFF THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON COAST NEAR 130W. THE SURFACE
FRONT SHOULD STALL NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE UPPER
PORTION OF THE FRONT SHEARS OFF AND MOVES INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN MAINLY AT THE COAST AND SW
WASHINGTON INTERIOR ZONES. LOWER MARINE CLOUDS WILL FILL MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR LOW LANDS DURING THE MORNING...WITH HIGHER LAYERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPS TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES SAT AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE MORE COOLING AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AGAIN MAINLY FOR THE COAST AND NORTHERN
INTERIOR ZONES. NO CHANGE IN TRENDS FOR SUN...AS MORE LIKELY TO SEE
DRY CONDITIONS WITH MIX OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS. WITH LOW POPS FOR THE
SW WA ZONES.

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING SUN
NIGHT AND MON.SURFACE FEATURES WEAKEN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
COAST...BUT 850MB AND 700MB ONSHORE WINDS WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.25
INCH WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS TO THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES.  FURTHER
ON IN THE WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOT BUILDING QUITE SO STRONGLY AS
BEFORE. THERE IS MORE ENERGY BEING PUT INTO CARVING OUT A TROUGH OVER
WESTERN CANADA THE EVENTUALLY SAGS INTO THE WESTERN U.S LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE AIR MASS WILL BE GENERALLY DRY SO THREAT OF SHOWERS REMAIN
LOW AT THIS POINT. HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
FORECAST. THESE WILL BE FURTHER REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64/26
&&

.AVIATION...LOW MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG ARE RESULTING IN IFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO FILL
IN MOST OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS MORNING...BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE BRUSH BY THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING...AND POSSIBLY GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE NORTH
OF KSLE. AREAS SOUTH OF KSLE WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY KEEP
SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND IN NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST AFT 21Z. STRATUS
AND MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN INLAND TONIGHT...AS WILL IFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF STRATUS
JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL AND ANOTHER BAND OF STRATUS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER. AM CONFIDENT IN MVFR CIGS
FOR THE AIRPORT THIS MORNING...BY 12Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFT
20Z...BUT ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK FRONT WILL KEEP CLOUDS WITH
BASES AROUND 5 KFT AGL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NE
WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 22Z. TJ

&&

.MARINE...MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS MARINE FORECAST AND THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF
THE NW...BRIEFLY SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
SEAS WILL COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK
AROUND 7 FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE
WATERS.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 291051 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
351 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CORRECTED MINOR TYPOS IN THE SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM SEGMENTS.

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND FOR COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THERE WAS SOME LIGHT PRECIP OCCURRING WELL OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME.
THE 0600 UTC GFS ARRIVED AND WAS WETTER THAN THE PREVIOUS CYCLE.
THE CURRENT FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE 0000 UTC RUN...AND MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE DRY SIDE.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROF WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT A WEAK COLD FRONT
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE
TROF ON SATURDAY. THUS...EXPECT COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS QUANTITATIVE PRECIP FORECASTS MIGHT BE
UNDERESTIMATING THE PRECIP AMOUNTS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE
SATELLITE-DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER /PWAT/ IMAGERY INDICATED
THAT...IN GENERAL...THE AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WAS
QUITE MOIST. PWAT VALUES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE OR
OVER 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WAS ALREADY
BECOMING ENTRAINED IN THE SYSTEM OFF OUR COAST.

EXPECT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THERE WERE SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN THE TIMING AND...TO A LESSER
DEGREE...THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE FASTER
IN EJECTING THIS SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA WHEREAS THE CANADIAN AND NAM
WERE A LITTLE SLOWER. HAVE CHOSEN TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS.

.LONG TERM...
IT APPEARED THAT THE REGION WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE ON MON. BEYOND MON...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WAS
SOMEWHAT LOW. IT LOOKS LIKE THE THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS MIGHT
BE LEANING TOWARD HOLDING ONTO AN UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA LONGER
THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE...THE ONLY CHANGES
MADE TO THE EXTENDED WERE TO BLEND BETTER WITH NEIGHBORS.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN WA
TODAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. CIGS ARE A
MIXED BAG BUT SHOULD SEE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS. 33

KSEA...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT SLY. CIGS WILL RAISE TO AROUND 3000 FT THIS AFTERNOON.
33

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN WA TODAY. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ON
SUNDAY. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN WA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM SATURDAY FOR THE
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 291051 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
351 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CORRECTED MINOR TYPOS IN THE SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM SEGMENTS.

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND FOR COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THERE WAS SOME LIGHT PRECIP OCCURRING WELL OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME.
THE 0600 UTC GFS ARRIVED AND WAS WETTER THAN THE PREVIOUS CYCLE.
THE CURRENT FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE 0000 UTC RUN...AND MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE DRY SIDE.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROF WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT A WEAK COLD FRONT
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE
TROF ON SATURDAY. THUS...EXPECT COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS QUANTITATIVE PRECIP FORECASTS MIGHT BE
UNDERESTIMATING THE PRECIP AMOUNTS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE
SATELLITE-DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER /PWAT/ IMAGERY INDICATED
THAT...IN GENERAL...THE AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WAS
QUITE MOIST. PWAT VALUES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE OR
OVER 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WAS ALREADY
BECOMING ENTRAINED IN THE SYSTEM OFF OUR COAST.

EXPECT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THERE WERE SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN THE TIMING AND...TO A LESSER
DEGREE...THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE FASTER
IN EJECTING THIS SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA WHEREAS THE CANADIAN AND NAM
WERE A LITTLE SLOWER. HAVE CHOSEN TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS.

.LONG TERM...
IT APPEARED THAT THE REGION WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE ON MON. BEYOND MON...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WAS
SOMEWHAT LOW. IT LOOKS LIKE THE THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS MIGHT
BE LEANING TOWARD HOLDING ONTO AN UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA LONGER
THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE...THE ONLY CHANGES
MADE TO THE EXTENDED WERE TO BLEND BETTER WITH NEIGHBORS.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN WA
TODAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. CIGS ARE A
MIXED BAG BUT SHOULD SEE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS. 33

KSEA...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT SLY. CIGS WILL RAISE TO AROUND 3000 FT THIS AFTERNOON.
33

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN WA TODAY. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ON
SUNDAY. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN WA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM SATURDAY FOR THE
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KPQR 291051
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
334 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INCREASING. THIS WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS
FOR THIS WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SATURDAY AND
LATE SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER RESUMES NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LOW TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA IS MOVING EAST TO SE AK/WESTERN B.C.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
NEAR SE ALASKA WITH A FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO
OFF THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON COAST NEAR 130W. THE SURFACE
FRONT SHOULD STALL NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE UPPER
PORTION OF THE FRONT SHEARS OFF AND MOVES INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN MAINLY AT THE COAST AND SW
WASHINGTON INTERIOR ZONES. LOWER MARINE CLOUDS WILL FILL MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR LOW LANDS DURING THE MORNING...WITH HIGHER LAYERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPS TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES SAT AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE MORE COOLING AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AGAIN MAINLY FOR THE COAST AND NORTHERN
INTERIOR ZONES. NO CHANGE IN TRENDS FOR SUN...AS MORE LIKELY TO SEE
DRY CONDITIONS WITH MIX OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS. WITH LOW POPS FOR THE
SW WA ZONES.

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING SUN
NIGHT AND MON.SURFACE FEATURES WEAKEN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
COAST...BUT 850MB AND 700MB ONSHORE WINDS WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.25
INCH WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS TO THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES.  FURTHER
ON IN THE WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOT BUILDING QUITE SO STRONGLY AS
BEFORE. THERE IS MORE ENERGY BEING PUT INTO CARVING OUT A TROUGH OVER
WESTERN CANADA THE EVENTUALLY SAGS INTO THE WESTERN U.S LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE AIR MASS WILL BE GENERALLY DRY SO THREAT OF SHOWERS REMAIN
LOW AT THIS POINT. HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
FORECAST. THESE WILL BE FURTHER REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64/26
&&

.AVIATION...LOW MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG ARE RESULTING IN IFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO FILL
IN MOST OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS MORNING...BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE BRUSH BY THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING...AND POSSIBLY GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE NORTH
OF KSLE. AREAS SOUTH OF KSLE WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY KEEP
SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND IN NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST AFT 21Z. STRATUS
AND MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN INLAND TONIGHT...AS WILL IFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF STRATUS
JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL AND ANOTHER BAND OF STRATUS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER. AM CONFIDENT IN MVFR CIGS
FOR THE AIRPORT THIS MORNING...BY 12Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFT
20Z...BUT ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK FRONT WILL KEEP CLOUDS WITH
BASES AROUND 5 KFT AGL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NE
WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 22Z. TJ

&&

.MARINE...MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS MARINE FORECAST AND THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF
THE NW...BRIEFLY SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
SEAS WILL COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK
AROUND 7 FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE
WATERS.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 291051
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
334 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INCREASING. THIS WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS
FOR THIS WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SATURDAY AND
LATE SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER RESUMES NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LOW TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA IS MOVING EAST TO SE AK/WESTERN B.C.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
NEAR SE ALASKA WITH A FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO
OFF THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON COAST NEAR 130W. THE SURFACE
FRONT SHOULD STALL NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE UPPER
PORTION OF THE FRONT SHEARS OFF AND MOVES INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN MAINLY AT THE COAST AND SW
WASHINGTON INTERIOR ZONES. LOWER MARINE CLOUDS WILL FILL MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR LOW LANDS DURING THE MORNING...WITH HIGHER LAYERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPS TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES SAT AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE MORE COOLING AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AGAIN MAINLY FOR THE COAST AND NORTHERN
INTERIOR ZONES. NO CHANGE IN TRENDS FOR SUN...AS MORE LIKELY TO SEE
DRY CONDITIONS WITH MIX OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS. WITH LOW POPS FOR THE
SW WA ZONES.

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING SUN
NIGHT AND MON.SURFACE FEATURES WEAKEN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
COAST...BUT 850MB AND 700MB ONSHORE WINDS WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.25
INCH WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS TO THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES.  FURTHER
ON IN THE WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOT BUILDING QUITE SO STRONGLY AS
BEFORE. THERE IS MORE ENERGY BEING PUT INTO CARVING OUT A TROUGH OVER
WESTERN CANADA THE EVENTUALLY SAGS INTO THE WESTERN U.S LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE AIR MASS WILL BE GENERALLY DRY SO THREAT OF SHOWERS REMAIN
LOW AT THIS POINT. HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
FORECAST. THESE WILL BE FURTHER REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64/26
&&

.AVIATION...LOW MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG ARE RESULTING IN IFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO FILL
IN MOST OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS MORNING...BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE BRUSH BY THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING...AND POSSIBLY GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE NORTH
OF KSLE. AREAS SOUTH OF KSLE WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY KEEP
SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND IN NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST AFT 21Z. STRATUS
AND MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN INLAND TONIGHT...AS WILL IFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF STRATUS
JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL AND ANOTHER BAND OF STRATUS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER. AM CONFIDENT IN MVFR CIGS
FOR THE AIRPORT THIS MORNING...BY 12Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFT
20Z...BUT ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK FRONT WILL KEEP CLOUDS WITH
BASES AROUND 5 KFT AGL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NE
WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 22Z. TJ

&&

.MARINE...MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS MARINE FORECAST AND THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF
THE NW...BRIEFLY SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
SEAS WILL COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK
AROUND 7 FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE
WATERS.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 291051 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
351 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CORRECTED MINOR TYPOS IN THE SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM SEGMENTS.

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND FOR COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THERE WAS SOME LIGHT PRECIP OCCURRING WELL OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME.
THE 0600 UTC GFS ARRIVED AND WAS WETTER THAN THE PREVIOUS CYCLE.
THE CURRENT FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE 0000 UTC RUN...AND MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE DRY SIDE.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROF WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT A WEAK COLD FRONT
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE
TROF ON SATURDAY. THUS...EXPECT COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS QUANTITATIVE PRECIP FORECASTS MIGHT BE
UNDERESTIMATING THE PRECIP AMOUNTS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE
SATELLITE-DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER /PWAT/ IMAGERY INDICATED
THAT...IN GENERAL...THE AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WAS
QUITE MOIST. PWAT VALUES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE OR
OVER 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WAS ALREADY
BECOMING ENTRAINED IN THE SYSTEM OFF OUR COAST.

EXPECT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THERE WERE SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN THE TIMING AND...TO A LESSER
DEGREE...THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE FASTER
IN EJECTING THIS SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA WHEREAS THE CANADIAN AND NAM
WERE A LITTLE SLOWER. HAVE CHOSEN TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS.

.LONG TERM...
IT APPEARED THAT THE REGION WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE ON MON. BEYOND MON...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WAS
SOMEWHAT LOW. IT LOOKS LIKE THE THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS MIGHT
BE LEANING TOWARD HOLDING ONTO AN UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA LONGER
THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE...THE ONLY CHANGES
MADE TO THE EXTENDED WERE TO BLEND BETTER WITH NEIGHBORS.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN WA
TODAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. CIGS ARE A
MIXED BAG BUT SHOULD SEE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS. 33

KSEA...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT SLY. CIGS WILL RAISE TO AROUND 3000 FT THIS AFTERNOON.
33

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN WA TODAY. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ON
SUNDAY. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN WA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM SATURDAY FOR THE
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 291051 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
351 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CORRECTED MINOR TYPOS IN THE SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM SEGMENTS.

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND FOR COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THERE WAS SOME LIGHT PRECIP OCCURRING WELL OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME.
THE 0600 UTC GFS ARRIVED AND WAS WETTER THAN THE PREVIOUS CYCLE.
THE CURRENT FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE 0000 UTC RUN...AND MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE DRY SIDE.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROF WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT A WEAK COLD FRONT
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE
TROF ON SATURDAY. THUS...EXPECT COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS QUANTITATIVE PRECIP FORECASTS MIGHT BE
UNDERESTIMATING THE PRECIP AMOUNTS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE
SATELLITE-DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER /PWAT/ IMAGERY INDICATED
THAT...IN GENERAL...THE AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WAS
QUITE MOIST. PWAT VALUES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE OR
OVER 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WAS ALREADY
BECOMING ENTRAINED IN THE SYSTEM OFF OUR COAST.

EXPECT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THERE WERE SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN THE TIMING AND...TO A LESSER
DEGREE...THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE FASTER
IN EJECTING THIS SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA WHEREAS THE CANADIAN AND NAM
WERE A LITTLE SLOWER. HAVE CHOSEN TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS.

.LONG TERM...
IT APPEARED THAT THE REGION WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE ON MON. BEYOND MON...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WAS
SOMEWHAT LOW. IT LOOKS LIKE THE THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS MIGHT
BE LEANING TOWARD HOLDING ONTO AN UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA LONGER
THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE...THE ONLY CHANGES
MADE TO THE EXTENDED WERE TO BLEND BETTER WITH NEIGHBORS.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN WA
TODAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. CIGS ARE A
MIXED BAG BUT SHOULD SEE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS. 33

KSEA...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT SLY. CIGS WILL RAISE TO AROUND 3000 FT THIS AFTERNOON.
33

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN WA TODAY. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ON
SUNDAY. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN WA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM SATURDAY FOR THE
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KPQR 291051
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
334 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INCREASING. THIS WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS
FOR THIS WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SATURDAY AND
LATE SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER RESUMES NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LOW TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA IS MOVING EAST TO SE AK/WESTERN B.C.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
NEAR SE ALASKA WITH A FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO
OFF THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON COAST NEAR 130W. THE SURFACE
FRONT SHOULD STALL NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE UPPER
PORTION OF THE FRONT SHEARS OFF AND MOVES INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN MAINLY AT THE COAST AND SW
WASHINGTON INTERIOR ZONES. LOWER MARINE CLOUDS WILL FILL MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR LOW LANDS DURING THE MORNING...WITH HIGHER LAYERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPS TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES SAT AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE MORE COOLING AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AGAIN MAINLY FOR THE COAST AND NORTHERN
INTERIOR ZONES. NO CHANGE IN TRENDS FOR SUN...AS MORE LIKELY TO SEE
DRY CONDITIONS WITH MIX OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS. WITH LOW POPS FOR THE
SW WA ZONES.

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING SUN
NIGHT AND MON.SURFACE FEATURES WEAKEN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
COAST...BUT 850MB AND 700MB ONSHORE WINDS WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.25
INCH WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS TO THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES.  FURTHER
ON IN THE WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOT BUILDING QUITE SO STRONGLY AS
BEFORE. THERE IS MORE ENERGY BEING PUT INTO CARVING OUT A TROUGH OVER
WESTERN CANADA THE EVENTUALLY SAGS INTO THE WESTERN U.S LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE AIR MASS WILL BE GENERALLY DRY SO THREAT OF SHOWERS REMAIN
LOW AT THIS POINT. HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
FORECAST. THESE WILL BE FURTHER REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64/26
&&

.AVIATION...LOW MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG ARE RESULTING IN IFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO FILL
IN MOST OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS MORNING...BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE BRUSH BY THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING...AND POSSIBLY GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE NORTH
OF KSLE. AREAS SOUTH OF KSLE WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY KEEP
SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND IN NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST AFT 21Z. STRATUS
AND MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN INLAND TONIGHT...AS WILL IFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF STRATUS
JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL AND ANOTHER BAND OF STRATUS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER. AM CONFIDENT IN MVFR CIGS
FOR THE AIRPORT THIS MORNING...BY 12Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFT
20Z...BUT ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK FRONT WILL KEEP CLOUDS WITH
BASES AROUND 5 KFT AGL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NE
WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 22Z. TJ

&&

.MARINE...MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS MARINE FORECAST AND THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF
THE NW...BRIEFLY SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
SEAS WILL COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK
AROUND 7 FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE
WATERS.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 291051
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
334 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INCREASING. THIS WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS
FOR THIS WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SATURDAY AND
LATE SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER RESUMES NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LOW TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA IS MOVING EAST TO SE AK/WESTERN B.C.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
NEAR SE ALASKA WITH A FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO
OFF THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON COAST NEAR 130W. THE SURFACE
FRONT SHOULD STALL NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE UPPER
PORTION OF THE FRONT SHEARS OFF AND MOVES INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN MAINLY AT THE COAST AND SW
WASHINGTON INTERIOR ZONES. LOWER MARINE CLOUDS WILL FILL MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR LOW LANDS DURING THE MORNING...WITH HIGHER LAYERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPS TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES SAT AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE MORE COOLING AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AGAIN MAINLY FOR THE COAST AND NORTHERN
INTERIOR ZONES. NO CHANGE IN TRENDS FOR SUN...AS MORE LIKELY TO SEE
DRY CONDITIONS WITH MIX OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS. WITH LOW POPS FOR THE
SW WA ZONES.

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING SUN
NIGHT AND MON.SURFACE FEATURES WEAKEN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
COAST...BUT 850MB AND 700MB ONSHORE WINDS WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.25
INCH WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS TO THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES.  FURTHER
ON IN THE WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOT BUILDING QUITE SO STRONGLY AS
BEFORE. THERE IS MORE ENERGY BEING PUT INTO CARVING OUT A TROUGH OVER
WESTERN CANADA THE EVENTUALLY SAGS INTO THE WESTERN U.S LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE AIR MASS WILL BE GENERALLY DRY SO THREAT OF SHOWERS REMAIN
LOW AT THIS POINT. HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
FORECAST. THESE WILL BE FURTHER REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64/26
&&

.AVIATION...LOW MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG ARE RESULTING IN IFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO FILL
IN MOST OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS MORNING...BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE BRUSH BY THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING...AND POSSIBLY GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE NORTH
OF KSLE. AREAS SOUTH OF KSLE WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY KEEP
SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND IN NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST AFT 21Z. STRATUS
AND MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN INLAND TONIGHT...AS WILL IFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF STRATUS
JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL AND ANOTHER BAND OF STRATUS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER. AM CONFIDENT IN MVFR CIGS
FOR THE AIRPORT THIS MORNING...BY 12Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFT
20Z...BUT ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK FRONT WILL KEEP CLOUDS WITH
BASES AROUND 5 KFT AGL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NE
WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 22Z. TJ

&&

.MARINE...MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS MARINE FORECAST AND THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF
THE NW...BRIEFLY SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
SEAS WILL COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK
AROUND 7 FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE
WATERS.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 291051 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
351 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CORRECTED MINOR TYPOS IN THE SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM SEGMENTS.

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND FOR COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THERE WAS SOME LIGHT PRECIP OCCURRING WELL OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME.
THE 0600 UTC GFS ARRIVED AND WAS WETTER THAN THE PREVIOUS CYCLE.
THE CURRENT FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE 0000 UTC RUN...AND MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE DRY SIDE.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROF WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT A WEAK COLD FRONT
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE
TROF ON SATURDAY. THUS...EXPECT COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS QUANTITATIVE PRECIP FORECASTS MIGHT BE
UNDERESTIMATING THE PRECIP AMOUNTS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE
SATELLITE-DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER /PWAT/ IMAGERY INDICATED
THAT...IN GENERAL...THE AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WAS
QUITE MOIST. PWAT VALUES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE OR
OVER 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WAS ALREADY
BECOMING ENTRAINED IN THE SYSTEM OFF OUR COAST.

EXPECT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THERE WERE SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN THE TIMING AND...TO A LESSER
DEGREE...THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE FASTER
IN EJECTING THIS SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA WHEREAS THE CANADIAN AND NAM
WERE A LITTLE SLOWER. HAVE CHOSEN TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS.

.LONG TERM...
IT APPEARED THAT THE REGION WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE ON MON. BEYOND MON...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WAS
SOMEWHAT LOW. IT LOOKS LIKE THE THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS MIGHT
BE LEANING TOWARD HOLDING ONTO AN UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA LONGER
THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE...THE ONLY CHANGES
MADE TO THE EXTENDED WERE TO BLEND BETTER WITH NEIGHBORS.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN WA
TODAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. CIGS ARE A
MIXED BAG BUT SHOULD SEE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS. 33

KSEA...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT SLY. CIGS WILL RAISE TO AROUND 3000 FT THIS AFTERNOON.
33

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN WA TODAY. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ON
SUNDAY. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN WA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM SATURDAY FOR THE
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 291051 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
351 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CORRECTED MINOR TYPOS IN THE SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM SEGMENTS.

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND FOR COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THERE WAS SOME LIGHT PRECIP OCCURRING WELL OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME.
THE 0600 UTC GFS ARRIVED AND WAS WETTER THAN THE PREVIOUS CYCLE.
THE CURRENT FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE 0000 UTC RUN...AND MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE DRY SIDE.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROF WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT A WEAK COLD FRONT
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE
TROF ON SATURDAY. THUS...EXPECT COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS QUANTITATIVE PRECIP FORECASTS MIGHT BE
UNDERESTIMATING THE PRECIP AMOUNTS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE
SATELLITE-DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER /PWAT/ IMAGERY INDICATED
THAT...IN GENERAL...THE AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WAS
QUITE MOIST. PWAT VALUES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE OR
OVER 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WAS ALREADY
BECOMING ENTRAINED IN THE SYSTEM OFF OUR COAST.

EXPECT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THERE WERE SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN THE TIMING AND...TO A LESSER
DEGREE...THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE FASTER
IN EJECTING THIS SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA WHEREAS THE CANADIAN AND NAM
WERE A LITTLE SLOWER. HAVE CHOSEN TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS.

.LONG TERM...
IT APPEARED THAT THE REGION WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE ON MON. BEYOND MON...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WAS
SOMEWHAT LOW. IT LOOKS LIKE THE THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS MIGHT
BE LEANING TOWARD HOLDING ONTO AN UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA LONGER
THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE...THE ONLY CHANGES
MADE TO THE EXTENDED WERE TO BLEND BETTER WITH NEIGHBORS.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN WA
TODAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. CIGS ARE A
MIXED BAG BUT SHOULD SEE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS. 33

KSEA...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT SLY. CIGS WILL RAISE TO AROUND 3000 FT THIS AFTERNOON.
33

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN WA TODAY. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ON
SUNDAY. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN WA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM SATURDAY FOR THE
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KPQR 291051
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
334 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INCREASING. THIS WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS
FOR THIS WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SATURDAY AND
LATE SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER RESUMES NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LOW TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA IS MOVING EAST TO SE AK/WESTERN B.C.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
NEAR SE ALASKA WITH A FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO
OFF THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON COAST NEAR 130W. THE SURFACE
FRONT SHOULD STALL NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE UPPER
PORTION OF THE FRONT SHEARS OFF AND MOVES INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN MAINLY AT THE COAST AND SW
WASHINGTON INTERIOR ZONES. LOWER MARINE CLOUDS WILL FILL MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR LOW LANDS DURING THE MORNING...WITH HIGHER LAYERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPS TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES SAT AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE MORE COOLING AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AGAIN MAINLY FOR THE COAST AND NORTHERN
INTERIOR ZONES. NO CHANGE IN TRENDS FOR SUN...AS MORE LIKELY TO SEE
DRY CONDITIONS WITH MIX OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS. WITH LOW POPS FOR THE
SW WA ZONES.

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING SUN
NIGHT AND MON.SURFACE FEATURES WEAKEN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
COAST...BUT 850MB AND 700MB ONSHORE WINDS WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.25
INCH WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS TO THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES.  FURTHER
ON IN THE WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOT BUILDING QUITE SO STRONGLY AS
BEFORE. THERE IS MORE ENERGY BEING PUT INTO CARVING OUT A TROUGH OVER
WESTERN CANADA THE EVENTUALLY SAGS INTO THE WESTERN U.S LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE AIR MASS WILL BE GENERALLY DRY SO THREAT OF SHOWERS REMAIN
LOW AT THIS POINT. HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
FORECAST. THESE WILL BE FURTHER REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64/26
&&

.AVIATION...LOW MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG ARE RESULTING IN IFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO FILL
IN MOST OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS MORNING...BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE BRUSH BY THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING...AND POSSIBLY GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE NORTH
OF KSLE. AREAS SOUTH OF KSLE WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY KEEP
SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND IN NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST AFT 21Z. STRATUS
AND MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN INLAND TONIGHT...AS WILL IFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF STRATUS
JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL AND ANOTHER BAND OF STRATUS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER. AM CONFIDENT IN MVFR CIGS
FOR THE AIRPORT THIS MORNING...BY 12Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFT
20Z...BUT ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK FRONT WILL KEEP CLOUDS WITH
BASES AROUND 5 KFT AGL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NE
WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 22Z. TJ

&&

.MARINE...MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS MARINE FORECAST AND THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF
THE NW...BRIEFLY SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
SEAS WILL COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK
AROUND 7 FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE
WATERS.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 291051
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
334 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INCREASING. THIS WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS
FOR THIS WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SATURDAY AND
LATE SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER RESUMES NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LOW TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA IS MOVING EAST TO SE AK/WESTERN B.C.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
NEAR SE ALASKA WITH A FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO
OFF THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON COAST NEAR 130W. THE SURFACE
FRONT SHOULD STALL NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE UPPER
PORTION OF THE FRONT SHEARS OFF AND MOVES INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN MAINLY AT THE COAST AND SW
WASHINGTON INTERIOR ZONES. LOWER MARINE CLOUDS WILL FILL MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR LOW LANDS DURING THE MORNING...WITH HIGHER LAYERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPS TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES SAT AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE MORE COOLING AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AGAIN MAINLY FOR THE COAST AND NORTHERN
INTERIOR ZONES. NO CHANGE IN TRENDS FOR SUN...AS MORE LIKELY TO SEE
DRY CONDITIONS WITH MIX OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS. WITH LOW POPS FOR THE
SW WA ZONES.

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING SUN
NIGHT AND MON.SURFACE FEATURES WEAKEN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
COAST...BUT 850MB AND 700MB ONSHORE WINDS WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.25
INCH WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS TO THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES.  FURTHER
ON IN THE WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOT BUILDING QUITE SO STRONGLY AS
BEFORE. THERE IS MORE ENERGY BEING PUT INTO CARVING OUT A TROUGH OVER
WESTERN CANADA THE EVENTUALLY SAGS INTO THE WESTERN U.S LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE AIR MASS WILL BE GENERALLY DRY SO THREAT OF SHOWERS REMAIN
LOW AT THIS POINT. HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
FORECAST. THESE WILL BE FURTHER REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64/26
&&

.AVIATION...LOW MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG ARE RESULTING IN IFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO FILL
IN MOST OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS MORNING...BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE BRUSH BY THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING...AND POSSIBLY GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE NORTH
OF KSLE. AREAS SOUTH OF KSLE WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY KEEP
SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND IN NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST AFT 21Z. STRATUS
AND MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN INLAND TONIGHT...AS WILL IFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF STRATUS
JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL AND ANOTHER BAND OF STRATUS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER. AM CONFIDENT IN MVFR CIGS
FOR THE AIRPORT THIS MORNING...BY 12Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFT
20Z...BUT ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK FRONT WILL KEEP CLOUDS WITH
BASES AROUND 5 KFT AGL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NE
WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 22Z. TJ

&&

.MARINE...MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS MARINE FORECAST AND THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF
THE NW...BRIEFLY SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
SEAS WILL COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK
AROUND 7 FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE
WATERS.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 291028
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
328 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND FOR COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THERE WAS SOME LIGHT PRECIP OCCURRING WELL OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME.
THE 0600 UTC GFS ARRIVED AND WAS WETTER THAN THE PREVIOUS CYCLE.
THE CURRENT FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE 0000 UTC RUN...AND MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE DRY SIDE.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROF WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT A WEAK COLD FRONT
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE
TROF ON SATURDAY. THUS EXPECT COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS QUANTITATIVE PRECIP FORECASTS MIGHT BE
UNDERESTIMATING THE PRECIP AMOUNTS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER /PWAT/ INDICATED
THAT...IN GENERAL...THE AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WAS
QUITE MOIST. PWAT VALUES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE OR
ABOUT 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WAS ALREADY
BECOMING ENTRAINED IN THE SYSTEM OFF OUR COAST.

EXPECT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THERE WERE SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE TIMING AND TO A LESSER DEGREE
THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE FASTER IN
EJECTING THIS OUT OF THE AREA WHEREAS THE CANADIAN AND NAM WERE A
LITTLE SLOWER. HAVE CHOSEN TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS.

.LONG TERM...
IT APPEARED THAT THE REGION WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE ON MON. BEYOND MON...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WAS
SOMEWHAT LOW. IT LOOKS LIKE THE THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS MIGHT
BE LEANING TOWARD HOLDING ONTO AN UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA LONGER
THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE...THE ONLY
CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED WERE TO BLEND BETTER WITH NEIGHBORS.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN WA
TODAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. CIGS ARE A
MIXED BAG BUT SHOULD SEE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS. 33

KSEA...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT SLY. CIGS WILL RAISE TO AROUND 3000 FT THIS AFTERNOON.
33

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN WA TODAY. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ON
SUNDAY. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN WA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM SATURDAY FOR THE
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 291028
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
328 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND FOR COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THERE WAS SOME LIGHT PRECIP OCCURRING WELL OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME.
THE 0600 UTC GFS ARRIVED AND WAS WETTER THAN THE PREVIOUS CYCLE.
THE CURRENT FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE 0000 UTC RUN...AND MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE DRY SIDE.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROF WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT A WEAK COLD FRONT
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE
TROF ON SATURDAY. THUS EXPECT COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS QUANTITATIVE PRECIP FORECASTS MIGHT BE
UNDERESTIMATING THE PRECIP AMOUNTS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER /PWAT/ INDICATED
THAT...IN GENERAL...THE AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WAS
QUITE MOIST. PWAT VALUES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE OR
ABOUT 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WAS ALREADY
BECOMING ENTRAINED IN THE SYSTEM OFF OUR COAST.

EXPECT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THERE WERE SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE TIMING AND TO A LESSER DEGREE
THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE FASTER IN
EJECTING THIS OUT OF THE AREA WHEREAS THE CANADIAN AND NAM WERE A
LITTLE SLOWER. HAVE CHOSEN TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS.

.LONG TERM...
IT APPEARED THAT THE REGION WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE ON MON. BEYOND MON...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WAS
SOMEWHAT LOW. IT LOOKS LIKE THE THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS MIGHT
BE LEANING TOWARD HOLDING ONTO AN UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA LONGER
THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE...THE ONLY
CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED WERE TO BLEND BETTER WITH NEIGHBORS.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN WA
TODAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. CIGS ARE A
MIXED BAG BUT SHOULD SEE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS. 33

KSEA...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT SLY. CIGS WILL RAISE TO AROUND 3000 FT THIS AFTERNOON.
33

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN WA TODAY. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ON
SUNDAY. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN WA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM SATURDAY FOR THE
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 291028
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
328 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND FOR COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THERE WAS SOME LIGHT PRECIP OCCURRING WELL OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME.
THE 0600 UTC GFS ARRIVED AND WAS WETTER THAN THE PREVIOUS CYCLE.
THE CURRENT FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE 0000 UTC RUN...AND MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE DRY SIDE.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROF WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT A WEAK COLD FRONT
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE
TROF ON SATURDAY. THUS EXPECT COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS QUANTITATIVE PRECIP FORECASTS MIGHT BE
UNDERESTIMATING THE PRECIP AMOUNTS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER /PWAT/ INDICATED
THAT...IN GENERAL...THE AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WAS
QUITE MOIST. PWAT VALUES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE OR
ABOUT 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WAS ALREADY
BECOMING ENTRAINED IN THE SYSTEM OFF OUR COAST.

EXPECT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THERE WERE SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE TIMING AND TO A LESSER DEGREE
THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE FASTER IN
EJECTING THIS OUT OF THE AREA WHEREAS THE CANADIAN AND NAM WERE A
LITTLE SLOWER. HAVE CHOSEN TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS.

.LONG TERM...
IT APPEARED THAT THE REGION WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE ON MON. BEYOND MON...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WAS
SOMEWHAT LOW. IT LOOKS LIKE THE THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS MIGHT
BE LEANING TOWARD HOLDING ONTO AN UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA LONGER
THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE...THE ONLY
CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED WERE TO BLEND BETTER WITH NEIGHBORS.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN WA
TODAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. CIGS ARE A
MIXED BAG BUT SHOULD SEE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS. 33

KSEA...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT SLY. CIGS WILL RAISE TO AROUND 3000 FT THIS AFTERNOON.
33

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN WA TODAY. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ON
SUNDAY. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN WA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM SATURDAY FOR THE
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 291028
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
328 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND FOR COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THERE WAS SOME LIGHT PRECIP OCCURRING WELL OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME.
THE 0600 UTC GFS ARRIVED AND WAS WETTER THAN THE PREVIOUS CYCLE.
THE CURRENT FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE 0000 UTC RUN...AND MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE DRY SIDE.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROF WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT A WEAK COLD FRONT
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE
TROF ON SATURDAY. THUS EXPECT COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS QUANTITATIVE PRECIP FORECASTS MIGHT BE
UNDERESTIMATING THE PRECIP AMOUNTS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER /PWAT/ INDICATED
THAT...IN GENERAL...THE AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WAS
QUITE MOIST. PWAT VALUES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE OR
ABOUT 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WAS ALREADY
BECOMING ENTRAINED IN THE SYSTEM OFF OUR COAST.

EXPECT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THERE WERE SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE TIMING AND TO A LESSER DEGREE
THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE FASTER IN
EJECTING THIS OUT OF THE AREA WHEREAS THE CANADIAN AND NAM WERE A
LITTLE SLOWER. HAVE CHOSEN TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS.

.LONG TERM...
IT APPEARED THAT THE REGION WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE ON MON. BEYOND MON...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WAS
SOMEWHAT LOW. IT LOOKS LIKE THE THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS MIGHT
BE LEANING TOWARD HOLDING ONTO AN UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA LONGER
THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE...THE ONLY
CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED WERE TO BLEND BETTER WITH NEIGHBORS.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN WA
TODAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. CIGS ARE A
MIXED BAG BUT SHOULD SEE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS. 33

KSEA...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT SLY. CIGS WILL RAISE TO AROUND 3000 FT THIS AFTERNOON.
33

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN WA TODAY. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ON
SUNDAY. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN WA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM SATURDAY FOR THE
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KOTX 290949
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
249 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The Labor Day weekend will be cooler than normal with locally
breezy conditions over portions of central and eastern
Washington. With the exception of some isolated mountain showers,
the majority of the Inland Northwest will remain dry through the
weekend. A continuation of the cool weather pattern is expected
through next week. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms
will probably occur in the Wednesday or Thursday time frame.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday night: The weather will turn cooler, breezy
with mountain showers across the Inland Northwest as the weather
pattern evolves from a flat ridge to into an upper level trough.
Today will start the onset of the cooling with the arrival of a
cold front which will push across eastern Washington this
afternoon and reaching north Idaho by evening. Most of the
moisture will be in the mid to upper levels, which will lead to
little if any precipitation except for the mountains. The best
chance of showers will be the Cascade crest. The frontal band
weakens as it pushes east with spotty mountains showers in
northeast Washington and north Idaho. Instability is lacking with
the weakening front and will keep the mention of thunder for
today. Winds will kick up behind the front from the lee side
valleys into the Columbia Basin with speeds of 15 to 25 mph.
Temperatures will cool a few degrees with readings near seasonal
normals. Winds and chance of showers decrease this evening as a
drier pushes in from the west and skies clear. 500mb heights
continue to fall into Saturday as an upper trough digs over the
region as a shortwave rolls through the flow by Saturday afternoon
and evening. Expect another chance of showers primarily for the
mountains. Instability will be the highest near the Canadian
border where the cold pool will reside. Will keep the mention of
thunderstorms across the north during Saturday afternoon and
evening. Westerly winds will kick up again especially in the lee
side valleys into the Columbia Basin. More cooling expected with
widespread 70s across the low lands. /rfox.

Sunday through Thursday: Cooler than average temperatures will be
the rule next week under a persistent longwave trough over the
Pacific Northwest. The medium range models are in good agreement
that a large 500mb ridge will be anchored over the southeastern
and south central U.S. bringing hotter than average temperatures
to portions of the country that received very little heat much of
the summer. The prevailing mid-level flow pattern Sunday through
Tuesday is expected to be northwesterly which is generally a dry
pattern this time of year. The models are progging a progressive
shortwave in the northwest flow on Monday which may bring enough
moisture with it for mountain showers with the best shot of rain
along the Cascade Crest. At most, light rain amounts are expected
given the lack of deep layer instability.

There is reasonably good agreement that the trough will buckle
Tuesday night into Wednesday bringing a reinforcing shot of
cooler air into the region. It also appears that an upper level
cold pool will set up over northern Washington and the far north
Idaho Panhandle on Wednesday suggesting the potential for widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms. At this time the best
combination of lift and instability looks to be over northeast
Washington and far north Idaho...away from the Cascade burn scars.
/GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Mostly clear skies with scattered high clouds are
expected tonight as weak high pressure moves over the area. The
next system will spread a thicker deck of mid and high clouds
across the Inland Northwest Friday afternoon and evening...and
also bring breezy west-southwest winds over the area.
JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        81  53  73  48  71  50 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  81  52  72  45  70  47 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        81  50  72  43  72  45 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       88  60  78  53  77  54 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       82  46  76  43  74  45 /  10  10  10  20  10  10
Sandpoint      78  51  70  39  68  44 /   0  10  20  20  10  20
Kellogg        77  52  68  47  66  49 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Moses Lake     84  50  79  47  78  51 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      82  56  77  56  78  56 /   0  10   0  10   0   0
Omak           82  52  77  50  76  50 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 290949
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
249 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The Labor Day weekend will be cooler than normal with locally
breezy conditions over portions of central and eastern
Washington. With the exception of some isolated mountain showers,
the majority of the Inland Northwest will remain dry through the
weekend. A continuation of the cool weather pattern is expected
through next week. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms
will probably occur in the Wednesday or Thursday time frame.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday night: The weather will turn cooler, breezy
with mountain showers across the Inland Northwest as the weather
pattern evolves from a flat ridge to into an upper level trough.
Today will start the onset of the cooling with the arrival of a
cold front which will push across eastern Washington this
afternoon and reaching north Idaho by evening. Most of the
moisture will be in the mid to upper levels, which will lead to
little if any precipitation except for the mountains. The best
chance of showers will be the Cascade crest. The frontal band
weakens as it pushes east with spotty mountains showers in
northeast Washington and north Idaho. Instability is lacking with
the weakening front and will keep the mention of thunder for
today. Winds will kick up behind the front from the lee side
valleys into the Columbia Basin with speeds of 15 to 25 mph.
Temperatures will cool a few degrees with readings near seasonal
normals. Winds and chance of showers decrease this evening as a
drier pushes in from the west and skies clear. 500mb heights
continue to fall into Saturday as an upper trough digs over the
region as a shortwave rolls through the flow by Saturday afternoon
and evening. Expect another chance of showers primarily for the
mountains. Instability will be the highest near the Canadian
border where the cold pool will reside. Will keep the mention of
thunderstorms across the north during Saturday afternoon and
evening. Westerly winds will kick up again especially in the lee
side valleys into the Columbia Basin. More cooling expected with
widespread 70s across the low lands. /rfox.

Sunday through Thursday: Cooler than average temperatures will be
the rule next week under a persistent longwave trough over the
Pacific Northwest. The medium range models are in good agreement
that a large 500mb ridge will be anchored over the southeastern
and south central U.S. bringing hotter than average temperatures
to portions of the country that received very little heat much of
the summer. The prevailing mid-level flow pattern Sunday through
Tuesday is expected to be northwesterly which is generally a dry
pattern this time of year. The models are progging a progressive
shortwave in the northwest flow on Monday which may bring enough
moisture with it for mountain showers with the best shot of rain
along the Cascade Crest. At most, light rain amounts are expected
given the lack of deep layer instability.

There is reasonably good agreement that the trough will buckle
Tuesday night into Wednesday bringing a reinforcing shot of
cooler air into the region. It also appears that an upper level
cold pool will set up over northern Washington and the far north
Idaho Panhandle on Wednesday suggesting the potential for widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms. At this time the best
combination of lift and instability looks to be over northeast
Washington and far north Idaho...away from the Cascade burn scars.
/GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Mostly clear skies with scattered high clouds are
expected tonight as weak high pressure moves over the area. The
next system will spread a thicker deck of mid and high clouds
across the Inland Northwest Friday afternoon and evening...and
also bring breezy west-southwest winds over the area.
JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        81  53  73  48  71  50 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  81  52  72  45  70  47 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        81  50  72  43  72  45 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       88  60  78  53  77  54 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       82  46  76  43  74  45 /  10  10  10  20  10  10
Sandpoint      78  51  70  39  68  44 /   0  10  20  20  10  20
Kellogg        77  52  68  47  66  49 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Moses Lake     84  50  79  47  78  51 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      82  56  77  56  78  56 /   0  10   0  10   0   0
Omak           82  52  77  50  76  50 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 290949
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
249 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The Labor Day weekend will be cooler than normal with locally
breezy conditions over portions of central and eastern
Washington. With the exception of some isolated mountain showers,
the majority of the Inland Northwest will remain dry through the
weekend. A continuation of the cool weather pattern is expected
through next week. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms
will probably occur in the Wednesday or Thursday time frame.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday night: The weather will turn cooler, breezy
with mountain showers across the Inland Northwest as the weather
pattern evolves from a flat ridge to into an upper level trough.
Today will start the onset of the cooling with the arrival of a
cold front which will push across eastern Washington this
afternoon and reaching north Idaho by evening. Most of the
moisture will be in the mid to upper levels, which will lead to
little if any precipitation except for the mountains. The best
chance of showers will be the Cascade crest. The frontal band
weakens as it pushes east with spotty mountains showers in
northeast Washington and north Idaho. Instability is lacking with
the weakening front and will keep the mention of thunder for
today. Winds will kick up behind the front from the lee side
valleys into the Columbia Basin with speeds of 15 to 25 mph.
Temperatures will cool a few degrees with readings near seasonal
normals. Winds and chance of showers decrease this evening as a
drier pushes in from the west and skies clear. 500mb heights
continue to fall into Saturday as an upper trough digs over the
region as a shortwave rolls through the flow by Saturday afternoon
and evening. Expect another chance of showers primarily for the
mountains. Instability will be the highest near the Canadian
border where the cold pool will reside. Will keep the mention of
thunderstorms across the north during Saturday afternoon and
evening. Westerly winds will kick up again especially in the lee
side valleys into the Columbia Basin. More cooling expected with
widespread 70s across the low lands. /rfox.

Sunday through Thursday: Cooler than average temperatures will be
the rule next week under a persistent longwave trough over the
Pacific Northwest. The medium range models are in good agreement
that a large 500mb ridge will be anchored over the southeastern
and south central U.S. bringing hotter than average temperatures
to portions of the country that received very little heat much of
the summer. The prevailing mid-level flow pattern Sunday through
Tuesday is expected to be northwesterly which is generally a dry
pattern this time of year. The models are progging a progressive
shortwave in the northwest flow on Monday which may bring enough
moisture with it for mountain showers with the best shot of rain
along the Cascade Crest. At most, light rain amounts are expected
given the lack of deep layer instability.

There is reasonably good agreement that the trough will buckle
Tuesday night into Wednesday bringing a reinforcing shot of
cooler air into the region. It also appears that an upper level
cold pool will set up over northern Washington and the far north
Idaho Panhandle on Wednesday suggesting the potential for widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms. At this time the best
combination of lift and instability looks to be over northeast
Washington and far north Idaho...away from the Cascade burn scars.
/GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Mostly clear skies with scattered high clouds are
expected tonight as weak high pressure moves over the area. The
next system will spread a thicker deck of mid and high clouds
across the Inland Northwest Friday afternoon and evening...and
also bring breezy west-southwest winds over the area.
JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        81  53  73  48  71  50 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  81  52  72  45  70  47 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        81  50  72  43  72  45 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       88  60  78  53  77  54 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       82  46  76  43  74  45 /  10  10  10  20  10  10
Sandpoint      78  51  70  39  68  44 /   0  10  20  20  10  20
Kellogg        77  52  68  47  66  49 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Moses Lake     84  50  79  47  78  51 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      82  56  77  56  78  56 /   0  10   0  10   0   0
Omak           82  52  77  50  76  50 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 290949
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
249 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The Labor Day weekend will be cooler than normal with locally
breezy conditions over portions of central and eastern
Washington. With the exception of some isolated mountain showers,
the majority of the Inland Northwest will remain dry through the
weekend. A continuation of the cool weather pattern is expected
through next week. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms
will probably occur in the Wednesday or Thursday time frame.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday night: The weather will turn cooler, breezy
with mountain showers across the Inland Northwest as the weather
pattern evolves from a flat ridge to into an upper level trough.
Today will start the onset of the cooling with the arrival of a
cold front which will push across eastern Washington this
afternoon and reaching north Idaho by evening. Most of the
moisture will be in the mid to upper levels, which will lead to
little if any precipitation except for the mountains. The best
chance of showers will be the Cascade crest. The frontal band
weakens as it pushes east with spotty mountains showers in
northeast Washington and north Idaho. Instability is lacking with
the weakening front and will keep the mention of thunder for
today. Winds will kick up behind the front from the lee side
valleys into the Columbia Basin with speeds of 15 to 25 mph.
Temperatures will cool a few degrees with readings near seasonal
normals. Winds and chance of showers decrease this evening as a
drier pushes in from the west and skies clear. 500mb heights
continue to fall into Saturday as an upper trough digs over the
region as a shortwave rolls through the flow by Saturday afternoon
and evening. Expect another chance of showers primarily for the
mountains. Instability will be the highest near the Canadian
border where the cold pool will reside. Will keep the mention of
thunderstorms across the north during Saturday afternoon and
evening. Westerly winds will kick up again especially in the lee
side valleys into the Columbia Basin. More cooling expected with
widespread 70s across the low lands. /rfox.

Sunday through Thursday: Cooler than average temperatures will be
the rule next week under a persistent longwave trough over the
Pacific Northwest. The medium range models are in good agreement
that a large 500mb ridge will be anchored over the southeastern
and south central U.S. bringing hotter than average temperatures
to portions of the country that received very little heat much of
the summer. The prevailing mid-level flow pattern Sunday through
Tuesday is expected to be northwesterly which is generally a dry
pattern this time of year. The models are progging a progressive
shortwave in the northwest flow on Monday which may bring enough
moisture with it for mountain showers with the best shot of rain
along the Cascade Crest. At most, light rain amounts are expected
given the lack of deep layer instability.

There is reasonably good agreement that the trough will buckle
Tuesday night into Wednesday bringing a reinforcing shot of
cooler air into the region. It also appears that an upper level
cold pool will set up over northern Washington and the far north
Idaho Panhandle on Wednesday suggesting the potential for widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms. At this time the best
combination of lift and instability looks to be over northeast
Washington and far north Idaho...away from the Cascade burn scars.
/GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Mostly clear skies with scattered high clouds are
expected tonight as weak high pressure moves over the area. The
next system will spread a thicker deck of mid and high clouds
across the Inland Northwest Friday afternoon and evening...and
also bring breezy west-southwest winds over the area.
JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        81  53  73  48  71  50 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  81  52  72  45  70  47 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        81  50  72  43  72  45 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       88  60  78  53  77  54 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       82  46  76  43  74  45 /  10  10  10  20  10  10
Sandpoint      78  51  70  39  68  44 /   0  10  20  20  10  20
Kellogg        77  52  68  47  66  49 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Moses Lake     84  50  79  47  78  51 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      82  56  77  56  78  56 /   0  10   0  10   0   0
Omak           82  52  77  50  76  50 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 290456
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
955 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP MAINTAIN MARINE
CLOUDINESS IN MUCH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ONSHORE LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD FOR A DRIER LABOR DAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS MOVES ONSHORE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE HAVE MOVED INTO THE CASCADES THIS
EVENING. STRATUS ALONG THE COAST HAS NOT YET CONSOLIDATED WITH KUIL
STILL CLEAR AT 04Z WHILE KHQM IS OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES AT 9 PM WERE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S.

00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THE THE PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS. MAIN STORY FOR WESTERN
WASHINGTON IS THE WARM WEATHER IS OVER WITH A SPELL OF COOLER AND
CLOUDIER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONSHORE GRADIENTS
INCREASING A LITTLE OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY NEAR 135W...MOVING EASTWARD. THE INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP THE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST SPREAD INLAND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AT
9 PM SO EXPECT SOME OF THE STRATUS TO FORM IN PLACE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS WELL. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WARMING WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WARMING. IN ADDITION THE PARENT LOW OF THE SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
NORTHEAST WHICH IS SPLITTING AND WEAKENING THE SHORTWAVE AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENING...IT WILL NOT WEAKEN ENOUGH TO
TAKE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL ON FRIDAY WITH MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.

LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ARRIVING ON SATURDAY KEEPING AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST. THE SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE STRONGEST OF THE GROUP. IF THE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE LOOK
FOR THE POPS TO BE INCREASED ON SATURDAY.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. 00Z MODEL CONSISTENCY BOTH RUN TO RUN AND WITHIN
THE MODELS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY WITH THE NAM KEEPING THE
FASTER SOLUTIONS OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE 00Z GFS HAS SLOWED
THE SHORTWAVE DOWN MOVING IT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY WILL STAY WITH THE
CHANCE POPS FORECAST.

CURRENT FORECAST HAVE THE TRENDS COVERED. NO UPDATE THIS EVENING.
FELTON

.LONG TERM...THE PROGS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT STARTING ON TUESDAY WITH
THE GFS CLEARLY THE OUTLIER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE CMC AND
ECMWF BOTH DIG THE NEXT TROUGH INTO THE PACIFIC NW LATER ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT IT INLAND BY THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS LAGS
BEHIND. AGREE WITH THE PMD DISCUSSION AND HAVE THE FIRST WEEK OF
SCHOOL FORECAST INCREASING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN LATER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY. DAYTIME TEMPS DO NOT
REALLY GET MUCH OF CHANCE TO RECOVER FROM HOLIDAY WEEKEND READINGS.
BUEHNER

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN WA
TONIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. LOW CLOUDS WILL FILL IN
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS WESTERN WA ON FRI WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS. 33

KSEA...LOW CLOUDS WILL LOWER INTO MVFR RANGE OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SLY. EXPECT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY ON FRI
AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES WESTERN WA. CIGS WILL RAISE TO AROUND 3000
FT FRI AFTERNOON. 33

&&

.MARINE...POST-FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN WA
TONIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN
WA ON FRI WITH ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING FRI NIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH THE STRAIT. THEN
ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRES
OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN WA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KSEW 290456
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
955 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP MAINTAIN MARINE
CLOUDINESS IN MUCH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ONSHORE LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD FOR A DRIER LABOR DAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS MOVES ONSHORE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE HAVE MOVED INTO THE CASCADES THIS
EVENING. STRATUS ALONG THE COAST HAS NOT YET CONSOLIDATED WITH KUIL
STILL CLEAR AT 04Z WHILE KHQM IS OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES AT 9 PM WERE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S.

00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THE THE PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS. MAIN STORY FOR WESTERN
WASHINGTON IS THE WARM WEATHER IS OVER WITH A SPELL OF COOLER AND
CLOUDIER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONSHORE GRADIENTS
INCREASING A LITTLE OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY NEAR 135W...MOVING EASTWARD. THE INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP THE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST SPREAD INLAND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AT
9 PM SO EXPECT SOME OF THE STRATUS TO FORM IN PLACE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS WELL. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WARMING WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WARMING. IN ADDITION THE PARENT LOW OF THE SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
NORTHEAST WHICH IS SPLITTING AND WEAKENING THE SHORTWAVE AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENING...IT WILL NOT WEAKEN ENOUGH TO
TAKE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL ON FRIDAY WITH MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.

LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ARRIVING ON SATURDAY KEEPING AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST. THE SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE STRONGEST OF THE GROUP. IF THE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE LOOK
FOR THE POPS TO BE INCREASED ON SATURDAY.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. 00Z MODEL CONSISTENCY BOTH RUN TO RUN AND WITHIN
THE MODELS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY WITH THE NAM KEEPING THE
FASTER SOLUTIONS OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE 00Z GFS HAS SLOWED
THE SHORTWAVE DOWN MOVING IT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY WILL STAY WITH THE
CHANCE POPS FORECAST.

CURRENT FORECAST HAVE THE TRENDS COVERED. NO UPDATE THIS EVENING.
FELTON

.LONG TERM...THE PROGS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT STARTING ON TUESDAY WITH
THE GFS CLEARLY THE OUTLIER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE CMC AND
ECMWF BOTH DIG THE NEXT TROUGH INTO THE PACIFIC NW LATER ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT IT INLAND BY THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS LAGS
BEHIND. AGREE WITH THE PMD DISCUSSION AND HAVE THE FIRST WEEK OF
SCHOOL FORECAST INCREASING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN LATER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY. DAYTIME TEMPS DO NOT
REALLY GET MUCH OF CHANCE TO RECOVER FROM HOLIDAY WEEKEND READINGS.
BUEHNER

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN WA
TONIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. LOW CLOUDS WILL FILL IN
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS WESTERN WA ON FRI WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS. 33

KSEA...LOW CLOUDS WILL LOWER INTO MVFR RANGE OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SLY. EXPECT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY ON FRI
AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES WESTERN WA. CIGS WILL RAISE TO AROUND 3000
FT FRI AFTERNOON. 33

&&

.MARINE...POST-FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN WA
TONIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN
WA ON FRI WITH ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING FRI NIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH THE STRAIT. THEN
ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRES
OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN WA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KSEW 290456
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
955 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP MAINTAIN MARINE
CLOUDINESS IN MUCH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ONSHORE LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD FOR A DRIER LABOR DAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS MOVES ONSHORE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE HAVE MOVED INTO THE CASCADES THIS
EVENING. STRATUS ALONG THE COAST HAS NOT YET CONSOLIDATED WITH KUIL
STILL CLEAR AT 04Z WHILE KHQM IS OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES AT 9 PM WERE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S.

00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THE THE PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS. MAIN STORY FOR WESTERN
WASHINGTON IS THE WARM WEATHER IS OVER WITH A SPELL OF COOLER AND
CLOUDIER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONSHORE GRADIENTS
INCREASING A LITTLE OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY NEAR 135W...MOVING EASTWARD. THE INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP THE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST SPREAD INLAND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AT
9 PM SO EXPECT SOME OF THE STRATUS TO FORM IN PLACE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS WELL. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WARMING WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WARMING. IN ADDITION THE PARENT LOW OF THE SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
NORTHEAST WHICH IS SPLITTING AND WEAKENING THE SHORTWAVE AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENING...IT WILL NOT WEAKEN ENOUGH TO
TAKE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL ON FRIDAY WITH MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.

LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ARRIVING ON SATURDAY KEEPING AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST. THE SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE STRONGEST OF THE GROUP. IF THE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE LOOK
FOR THE POPS TO BE INCREASED ON SATURDAY.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. 00Z MODEL CONSISTENCY BOTH RUN TO RUN AND WITHIN
THE MODELS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY WITH THE NAM KEEPING THE
FASTER SOLUTIONS OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE 00Z GFS HAS SLOWED
THE SHORTWAVE DOWN MOVING IT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY WILL STAY WITH THE
CHANCE POPS FORECAST.

CURRENT FORECAST HAVE THE TRENDS COVERED. NO UPDATE THIS EVENING.
FELTON

.LONG TERM...THE PROGS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT STARTING ON TUESDAY WITH
THE GFS CLEARLY THE OUTLIER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE CMC AND
ECMWF BOTH DIG THE NEXT TROUGH INTO THE PACIFIC NW LATER ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT IT INLAND BY THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS LAGS
BEHIND. AGREE WITH THE PMD DISCUSSION AND HAVE THE FIRST WEEK OF
SCHOOL FORECAST INCREASING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN LATER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY. DAYTIME TEMPS DO NOT
REALLY GET MUCH OF CHANCE TO RECOVER FROM HOLIDAY WEEKEND READINGS.
BUEHNER

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN WA
TONIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. LOW CLOUDS WILL FILL IN
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS WESTERN WA ON FRI WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS. 33

KSEA...LOW CLOUDS WILL LOWER INTO MVFR RANGE OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SLY. EXPECT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY ON FRI
AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES WESTERN WA. CIGS WILL RAISE TO AROUND 3000
FT FRI AFTERNOON. 33

&&

.MARINE...POST-FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN WA
TONIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN
WA ON FRI WITH ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING FRI NIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH THE STRAIT. THEN
ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRES
OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN WA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KSEW 290456
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
955 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP MAINTAIN MARINE
CLOUDINESS IN MUCH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ONSHORE LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD FOR A DRIER LABOR DAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS MOVES ONSHORE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE HAVE MOVED INTO THE CASCADES THIS
EVENING. STRATUS ALONG THE COAST HAS NOT YET CONSOLIDATED WITH KUIL
STILL CLEAR AT 04Z WHILE KHQM IS OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES AT 9 PM WERE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S.

00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THE THE PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS. MAIN STORY FOR WESTERN
WASHINGTON IS THE WARM WEATHER IS OVER WITH A SPELL OF COOLER AND
CLOUDIER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONSHORE GRADIENTS
INCREASING A LITTLE OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY NEAR 135W...MOVING EASTWARD. THE INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP THE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST SPREAD INLAND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AT
9 PM SO EXPECT SOME OF THE STRATUS TO FORM IN PLACE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS WELL. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WARMING WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WARMING. IN ADDITION THE PARENT LOW OF THE SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
NORTHEAST WHICH IS SPLITTING AND WEAKENING THE SHORTWAVE AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENING...IT WILL NOT WEAKEN ENOUGH TO
TAKE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL ON FRIDAY WITH MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.

LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ARRIVING ON SATURDAY KEEPING AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST. THE SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE STRONGEST OF THE GROUP. IF THE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE LOOK
FOR THE POPS TO BE INCREASED ON SATURDAY.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. 00Z MODEL CONSISTENCY BOTH RUN TO RUN AND WITHIN
THE MODELS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY WITH THE NAM KEEPING THE
FASTER SOLUTIONS OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE 00Z GFS HAS SLOWED
THE SHORTWAVE DOWN MOVING IT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY WILL STAY WITH THE
CHANCE POPS FORECAST.

CURRENT FORECAST HAVE THE TRENDS COVERED. NO UPDATE THIS EVENING.
FELTON

.LONG TERM...THE PROGS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT STARTING ON TUESDAY WITH
THE GFS CLEARLY THE OUTLIER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE CMC AND
ECMWF BOTH DIG THE NEXT TROUGH INTO THE PACIFIC NW LATER ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT IT INLAND BY THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS LAGS
BEHIND. AGREE WITH THE PMD DISCUSSION AND HAVE THE FIRST WEEK OF
SCHOOL FORECAST INCREASING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN LATER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY. DAYTIME TEMPS DO NOT
REALLY GET MUCH OF CHANCE TO RECOVER FROM HOLIDAY WEEKEND READINGS.
BUEHNER

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN WA
TONIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. LOW CLOUDS WILL FILL IN
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS WESTERN WA ON FRI WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS. 33

KSEA...LOW CLOUDS WILL LOWER INTO MVFR RANGE OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SLY. EXPECT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY ON FRI
AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES WESTERN WA. CIGS WILL RAISE TO AROUND 3000
FT FRI AFTERNOON. 33

&&

.MARINE...POST-FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN WA
TONIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN
WA ON FRI WITH ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING FRI NIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH THE STRAIT. THEN
ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRES
OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN WA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KOTX 290426
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
926 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool down begins across the Inland Northwest, with an increase
of clouds and locally breezy winds. A weak system will bring a
chance of showers to the Cascades and northern mountains Friday.
Another, stronger system arrives during the holiday weekend. This
will result in breezy to windy conditions, along with an increased
chance for mountain showers. Temperatures will drop below normal
by the weekend, with low temperatures in the 30s possible Sunday
morning in the northern valleys of Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A strong mid level wave over Northwest Montana clipped the North
Idaho Panhandle earlier this evening bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms to a small area between Bonners Ferry and Sandpoint.
Water vapor satellite shows drier air aloft moving into North
Idaho with radar as of 915 pm showing showers out of the area. A
short wave ridge will move over the area tonight in advance of an
approaching upper level trough. This will lead to dry conditions
across the Inland Northwest although satellite does show high
clouds over and west of the Cascades moving east. Forecast has
been updated to remove the evening shower/thunderstorm wording for
the North Idaho Panhandle...and to make minor sky cover
adjustments.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Mostly clear skies with scattered high clouds are
expected tonight as weak high pressure moves over the area. The
next system will spread a thicker deck of mid and high clouds
across the Inland Northwest Friday afternoon and evening...and
also bring breezy west-southwest winds over the area.

JW



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        57  81  53  72  49  71 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  54  81  53  71  47  70 /  10   0  10  10  10  20
Pullman        50  81  49  71  44  72 /   0   0  10   0  10  10
Lewiston       60  88  59  77  54  77 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Colville       51  82  48  75  44  74 /  10  10  10  10  20  20
Sandpoint      50  78  51  69  41  69 /  10   0  10  20  20  20
Kellogg        55  77  52  67  48  67 /   0   0  10  20  20  20
Moses Lake     55  85  51  77  48  78 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      62  82  57  76  56  77 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak           56  83  54  76  51  78 /   0  10   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 290426
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
926 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool down begins across the Inland Northwest, with an increase
of clouds and locally breezy winds. A weak system will bring a
chance of showers to the Cascades and northern mountains Friday.
Another, stronger system arrives during the holiday weekend. This
will result in breezy to windy conditions, along with an increased
chance for mountain showers. Temperatures will drop below normal
by the weekend, with low temperatures in the 30s possible Sunday
morning in the northern valleys of Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A strong mid level wave over Northwest Montana clipped the North
Idaho Panhandle earlier this evening bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms to a small area between Bonners Ferry and Sandpoint.
Water vapor satellite shows drier air aloft moving into North
Idaho with radar as of 915 pm showing showers out of the area. A
short wave ridge will move over the area tonight in advance of an
approaching upper level trough. This will lead to dry conditions
across the Inland Northwest although satellite does show high
clouds over and west of the Cascades moving east. Forecast has
been updated to remove the evening shower/thunderstorm wording for
the North Idaho Panhandle...and to make minor sky cover
adjustments.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Mostly clear skies with scattered high clouds are
expected tonight as weak high pressure moves over the area. The
next system will spread a thicker deck of mid and high clouds
across the Inland Northwest Friday afternoon and evening...and
also bring breezy west-southwest winds over the area.

JW



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        57  81  53  72  49  71 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  54  81  53  71  47  70 /  10   0  10  10  10  20
Pullman        50  81  49  71  44  72 /   0   0  10   0  10  10
Lewiston       60  88  59  77  54  77 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Colville       51  82  48  75  44  74 /  10  10  10  10  20  20
Sandpoint      50  78  51  69  41  69 /  10   0  10  20  20  20
Kellogg        55  77  52  67  48  67 /   0   0  10  20  20  20
Moses Lake     55  85  51  77  48  78 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      62  82  57  76  56  77 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak           56  83  54  76  51  78 /   0  10   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 290317
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
815 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INCREASING. THIS WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS
FOR THIS WEEKEND. BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SATURDAY. DRY AND
MILD WEATHER RESUMES NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS NOW INCREASING JUST OFFSHORE AND INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT FRONT THAT LIES
MUCH FURTHER TO THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS ALSO SIGNIFY THE ONSET OF
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. AS OF 8 PM...LOW CLOUDS HAVE OVERTAKEN
NEARLY ALL COASTAL AREAS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE
INTERIOR OVERNIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS.

WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE ON THE COAST AND INTO THE COAST RANGE
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI AM. FURTHER INLAND...CLOUDS SHOULD FILL ALL OF
THE INTERIOR WITH MARINE CLOUDS EXTENDING WELL INTO THE CASCADES FRI
AM. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP FRI AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER. HIGHS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL RUN A GOOD 6 TO 12 DEG UNDER
WHAT SAW ON THU...WITH LARGEST DROPS TO S AND SE OF SALEM.

THE MAIN PART OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT AND
INTO SAT AM. WHILE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...MODELS STILL INDICATE
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION TOWARDS SAT AM. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR EVEN SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN DURING THAT
TIME. WILL LET NEXT SHIFT OR TWO CONTINUE TO SIFT OVER NEW 00Z AND
06Z MODEL DATA...BUT SUSPECT WILL HAVE TO BOOST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT.

NO CHANCE IN TRENDS FOR SUN...AS MORE LIKELY TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS
WITH MIX OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS. WILL KEEP MINOR THREAT OF SHOWERS
OVER THE CASCADES.     ROCKEY.

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE US A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...TEMPERATES WILL STILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SLIGHTLY PROGRESSIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WE COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
WASHINGTON AND OREGON BORDER AND INTO THE NORTHERN CASCADES FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
FORECAST. THESE WILL BE FURTHER REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64
&&

.AVIATION...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER
NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TONIGHT...RESULTING IN THE
RETURN OF STRATUS. STRATUS WITH LIFR CIGS AND AREAS IFR VIS HAS
ALREADY MOVED ONTO THE COAST...AND THIS STRATUS WILL SPREAD INLAND
THROUGH THE NIGHT LIKELY BRINGING MVFR CIGS TO INTERIOR TERMINALS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z. ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY AS A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST AREAS
OF STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT...BUT MARINE STRATUS WILL PUSH INTO THE TERMINAL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z. -WRIGHT
&&

.MARINE...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE NW...BRIEFLY
SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SEAS WILL
COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 7
FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS.
TW
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 290317
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
815 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INCREASING. THIS WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS
FOR THIS WEEKEND. BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SATURDAY. DRY AND
MILD WEATHER RESUMES NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS NOW INCREASING JUST OFFSHORE AND INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT FRONT THAT LIES
MUCH FURTHER TO THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS ALSO SIGNIFY THE ONSET OF
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. AS OF 8 PM...LOW CLOUDS HAVE OVERTAKEN
NEARLY ALL COASTAL AREAS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE
INTERIOR OVERNIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS.

WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE ON THE COAST AND INTO THE COAST RANGE
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI AM. FURTHER INLAND...CLOUDS SHOULD FILL ALL OF
THE INTERIOR WITH MARINE CLOUDS EXTENDING WELL INTO THE CASCADES FRI
AM. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP FRI AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER. HIGHS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL RUN A GOOD 6 TO 12 DEG UNDER
WHAT SAW ON THU...WITH LARGEST DROPS TO S AND SE OF SALEM.

THE MAIN PART OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT AND
INTO SAT AM. WHILE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...MODELS STILL INDICATE
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION TOWARDS SAT AM. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR EVEN SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN DURING THAT
TIME. WILL LET NEXT SHIFT OR TWO CONTINUE TO SIFT OVER NEW 00Z AND
06Z MODEL DATA...BUT SUSPECT WILL HAVE TO BOOST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT.

NO CHANCE IN TRENDS FOR SUN...AS MORE LIKELY TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS
WITH MIX OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS. WILL KEEP MINOR THREAT OF SHOWERS
OVER THE CASCADES.     ROCKEY.

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE US A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...TEMPERATES WILL STILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SLIGHTLY PROGRESSIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WE COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
WASHINGTON AND OREGON BORDER AND INTO THE NORTHERN CASCADES FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
FORECAST. THESE WILL BE FURTHER REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64
&&

.AVIATION...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER
NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TONIGHT...RESULTING IN THE
RETURN OF STRATUS. STRATUS WITH LIFR CIGS AND AREAS IFR VIS HAS
ALREADY MOVED ONTO THE COAST...AND THIS STRATUS WILL SPREAD INLAND
THROUGH THE NIGHT LIKELY BRINGING MVFR CIGS TO INTERIOR TERMINALS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z. ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY AS A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST AREAS
OF STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT...BUT MARINE STRATUS WILL PUSH INTO THE TERMINAL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z. -WRIGHT
&&

.MARINE...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE NW...BRIEFLY
SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SEAS WILL
COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 7
FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS.
TW
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 290317
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
815 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INCREASING. THIS WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS
FOR THIS WEEKEND. BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SATURDAY. DRY AND
MILD WEATHER RESUMES NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS NOW INCREASING JUST OFFSHORE AND INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT FRONT THAT LIES
MUCH FURTHER TO THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS ALSO SIGNIFY THE ONSET OF
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. AS OF 8 PM...LOW CLOUDS HAVE OVERTAKEN
NEARLY ALL COASTAL AREAS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE
INTERIOR OVERNIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS.

WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE ON THE COAST AND INTO THE COAST RANGE
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI AM. FURTHER INLAND...CLOUDS SHOULD FILL ALL OF
THE INTERIOR WITH MARINE CLOUDS EXTENDING WELL INTO THE CASCADES FRI
AM. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP FRI AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER. HIGHS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL RUN A GOOD 6 TO 12 DEG UNDER
WHAT SAW ON THU...WITH LARGEST DROPS TO S AND SE OF SALEM.

THE MAIN PART OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT AND
INTO SAT AM. WHILE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...MODELS STILL INDICATE
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION TOWARDS SAT AM. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR EVEN SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN DURING THAT
TIME. WILL LET NEXT SHIFT OR TWO CONTINUE TO SIFT OVER NEW 00Z AND
06Z MODEL DATA...BUT SUSPECT WILL HAVE TO BOOST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT.

NO CHANCE IN TRENDS FOR SUN...AS MORE LIKELY TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS
WITH MIX OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS. WILL KEEP MINOR THREAT OF SHOWERS
OVER THE CASCADES.     ROCKEY.

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE US A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...TEMPERATES WILL STILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SLIGHTLY PROGRESSIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WE COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
WASHINGTON AND OREGON BORDER AND INTO THE NORTHERN CASCADES FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
FORECAST. THESE WILL BE FURTHER REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64
&&

.AVIATION...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER
NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TONIGHT...RESULTING IN THE
RETURN OF STRATUS. STRATUS WITH LIFR CIGS AND AREAS IFR VIS HAS
ALREADY MOVED ONTO THE COAST...AND THIS STRATUS WILL SPREAD INLAND
THROUGH THE NIGHT LIKELY BRINGING MVFR CIGS TO INTERIOR TERMINALS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z. ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY AS A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST AREAS
OF STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT...BUT MARINE STRATUS WILL PUSH INTO THE TERMINAL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z. -WRIGHT
&&

.MARINE...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE NW...BRIEFLY
SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SEAS WILL
COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 7
FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS.
TW
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 290317
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
815 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INCREASING. THIS WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS
FOR THIS WEEKEND. BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SATURDAY. DRY AND
MILD WEATHER RESUMES NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS NOW INCREASING JUST OFFSHORE AND INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT FRONT THAT LIES
MUCH FURTHER TO THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS ALSO SIGNIFY THE ONSET OF
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. AS OF 8 PM...LOW CLOUDS HAVE OVERTAKEN
NEARLY ALL COASTAL AREAS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE
INTERIOR OVERNIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS.

WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE ON THE COAST AND INTO THE COAST RANGE
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI AM. FURTHER INLAND...CLOUDS SHOULD FILL ALL OF
THE INTERIOR WITH MARINE CLOUDS EXTENDING WELL INTO THE CASCADES FRI
AM. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP FRI AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER. HIGHS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL RUN A GOOD 6 TO 12 DEG UNDER
WHAT SAW ON THU...WITH LARGEST DROPS TO S AND SE OF SALEM.

THE MAIN PART OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT AND
INTO SAT AM. WHILE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...MODELS STILL INDICATE
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION TOWARDS SAT AM. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR EVEN SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN DURING THAT
TIME. WILL LET NEXT SHIFT OR TWO CONTINUE TO SIFT OVER NEW 00Z AND
06Z MODEL DATA...BUT SUSPECT WILL HAVE TO BOOST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT.

NO CHANCE IN TRENDS FOR SUN...AS MORE LIKELY TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS
WITH MIX OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS. WILL KEEP MINOR THREAT OF SHOWERS
OVER THE CASCADES.     ROCKEY.

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE US A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...TEMPERATES WILL STILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SLIGHTLY PROGRESSIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WE COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
WASHINGTON AND OREGON BORDER AND INTO THE NORTHERN CASCADES FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
FORECAST. THESE WILL BE FURTHER REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64
&&

.AVIATION...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER
NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TONIGHT...RESULTING IN THE
RETURN OF STRATUS. STRATUS WITH LIFR CIGS AND AREAS IFR VIS HAS
ALREADY MOVED ONTO THE COAST...AND THIS STRATUS WILL SPREAD INLAND
THROUGH THE NIGHT LIKELY BRINGING MVFR CIGS TO INTERIOR TERMINALS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z. ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY AS A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST AREAS
OF STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT...BUT MARINE STRATUS WILL PUSH INTO THE TERMINAL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z. -WRIGHT
&&

.MARINE...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE NW...BRIEFLY
SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SEAS WILL
COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 7
FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS.
TW
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 282351
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
450 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool down begins across the Inland Northwest, with an increase
of clouds and locally breezy winds. A weak system will bring a
chance of showers to the Cascades and northern mountains Friday.
Another, stronger system arrives during the holiday weekend. This
will result in breezy to windy conditions, along with an increased
chance for mountain showers. Temperatures will drop below normal
by the weekend, with low temperatures in the 30s possible Sunday
morning in the northern valleys of Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Friday: Brief ridging tonight will bring an end to
any stray showers over the northern panhandle. A stronger
shortwave will move through the region bringing a chance of
showers to the Cascades and across the northern tier. Any
precipitation will be quite local with a very low chance of any
wetting rains for the current wildfires. Thunderstorms and the
associated threat of brief heavy rain are not expected. The main
effect of this trough passage will be gusty westerly winds.
Relative humidity is already increasing this afternoon so the
threat of combined elevated winds and low RH is minimal at best.
Gusty winds will be accelerated down the east slope gap valleys
and will spread out into the Waterville Plateau, upper basin and
Palouse. Gusts will be in the 20 to 30 mph range for those favored
areas. Temperatures will start a cooling trend with readings in
the upper 70s in the northern valleys to upper 80s for the lower
valleys. /Kelch

Friday Nt through Monday: We`ve focused on three main areas.
Namely...winds Friday, wind and thunder Saturday, and cool low
temps Sunday morning. Cold fropa Saturday morning will lead to
mostly sunny skies and pleasant temps Saturday, though pressure
gradients are strong enough to produce breezy conditions...especially
near the Cascades such as the Wenatchee region. We did lower only
slightly the chance of showers and thunder for NE WA and the N ID
Panhandle for Saturday afternoon and evening. There are some level
of confidence issues concerning this, with model guidance not
agreeing with the strength and path of the vort max embedded in
the upper broad trough. The trend in guidance is for less pcpn
chances, and most locations have a sfc- based cap in the afternoon
across NE Wa and N Idaho. With winds decreasing overnight as skies
clear, Sunday morning lows could fall into the 30s across the more
sheltered NE Wa and N Idaho valleys...the typical frost-pocket
locations. Widespread frost is not expected. Wave number 2 quickly
moves across the region Sunday and Sunday night. But this wave has
a more stratified character (and even modest isentropic ascent),
so we still kept pcpn amnts light and limited to the higher
terrain for the Idaho Panhandle and the Cascades. Mon will see a
warming and drying trend with more sunshine. bz

Monday night through Thursday: Relatively benign weather is
followed by another chance of precipitation and breezy conditions
by the middle of next week. The Inland NW transitions from a
northwest to westerly flow early this period, with a relative
decrease in moisture and convective instability. One weak wave
exits through north ID at the start of the period, keeping a
slight shower threat here Monday night into Tuesday AM. Otherwise
look for dry conditions with mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions.
Late Tuesday into Thursday the next system digs south from the
Gulf of AK into the Inland NW. Models disagree over the precise
evolution of this system, especially how quickly it moves in. The
EC/GEM/GEFS have some agreement, as compared to the operational
GFS. Overall moisture begins to deepen this period, with a leading
warm front swinging in later Tuesday bringing the main chance of
precipitation to the Cascades. This is followed by a cold front
and unstable upper trough Wednesday into Thursday. Despite this
the bulk of the deeper moisture is above 500mbs (~15kft) and
models paint the main precipitation chances in the mountains
through Wednesday. It is not until Thursday that the moisture
deepens enough and there is enough instability to bring some
threat of showers to the Columbia Basin. The cool upper trough
will also bring some chance of thunder Wednesday and Thursday
afternoon. Expect some increase in winds, especially around
Wednesday afternoon and evening, as gradients and mixing increases
with the incoming front. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: One wave over NE Washington and North Idaho will move
east and out of the area this evening...followed by another system
crossing the Cascades late Friday afternoon. These two features
will result in varying amounts of mid and high clouds for the TAF
sites. Near the Canadian border, deeper instability early this
evening may result in isolated thunderstorms around Bonners Ferry.
JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        57  81  53  72  49  71 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  54  81  53  71  47  70 /  10   0  10  10  10  20
Pullman        50  81  49  71  44  72 /   0   0  10   0  10  10
Lewiston       60  88  59  77  54  77 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Colville       51  82  48  75  44  74 /  10  10  10  10  20  20
Sandpoint      50  78  51  69  41  69 /  10   0  10  20  20  20
Kellogg        55  77  52  67  48  67 /   0   0  10  20  20  20
Moses Lake     55  85  51  77  48  78 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      62  82  57  76  56  77 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak           56  83  54  76  51  78 /   0  10   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 282351
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
450 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool down begins across the Inland Northwest, with an increase
of clouds and locally breezy winds. A weak system will bring a
chance of showers to the Cascades and northern mountains Friday.
Another, stronger system arrives during the holiday weekend. This
will result in breezy to windy conditions, along with an increased
chance for mountain showers. Temperatures will drop below normal
by the weekend, with low temperatures in the 30s possible Sunday
morning in the northern valleys of Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Friday: Brief ridging tonight will bring an end to
any stray showers over the northern panhandle. A stronger
shortwave will move through the region bringing a chance of
showers to the Cascades and across the northern tier. Any
precipitation will be quite local with a very low chance of any
wetting rains for the current wildfires. Thunderstorms and the
associated threat of brief heavy rain are not expected. The main
effect of this trough passage will be gusty westerly winds.
Relative humidity is already increasing this afternoon so the
threat of combined elevated winds and low RH is minimal at best.
Gusty winds will be accelerated down the east slope gap valleys
and will spread out into the Waterville Plateau, upper basin and
Palouse. Gusts will be in the 20 to 30 mph range for those favored
areas. Temperatures will start a cooling trend with readings in
the upper 70s in the northern valleys to upper 80s for the lower
valleys. /Kelch

Friday Nt through Monday: We`ve focused on three main areas.
Namely...winds Friday, wind and thunder Saturday, and cool low
temps Sunday morning. Cold fropa Saturday morning will lead to
mostly sunny skies and pleasant temps Saturday, though pressure
gradients are strong enough to produce breezy conditions...especially
near the Cascades such as the Wenatchee region. We did lower only
slightly the chance of showers and thunder for NE WA and the N ID
Panhandle for Saturday afternoon and evening. There are some level
of confidence issues concerning this, with model guidance not
agreeing with the strength and path of the vort max embedded in
the upper broad trough. The trend in guidance is for less pcpn
chances, and most locations have a sfc- based cap in the afternoon
across NE Wa and N Idaho. With winds decreasing overnight as skies
clear, Sunday morning lows could fall into the 30s across the more
sheltered NE Wa and N Idaho valleys...the typical frost-pocket
locations. Widespread frost is not expected. Wave number 2 quickly
moves across the region Sunday and Sunday night. But this wave has
a more stratified character (and even modest isentropic ascent),
so we still kept pcpn amnts light and limited to the higher
terrain for the Idaho Panhandle and the Cascades. Mon will see a
warming and drying trend with more sunshine. bz

Monday night through Thursday: Relatively benign weather is
followed by another chance of precipitation and breezy conditions
by the middle of next week. The Inland NW transitions from a
northwest to westerly flow early this period, with a relative
decrease in moisture and convective instability. One weak wave
exits through north ID at the start of the period, keeping a
slight shower threat here Monday night into Tuesday AM. Otherwise
look for dry conditions with mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions.
Late Tuesday into Thursday the next system digs south from the
Gulf of AK into the Inland NW. Models disagree over the precise
evolution of this system, especially how quickly it moves in. The
EC/GEM/GEFS have some agreement, as compared to the operational
GFS. Overall moisture begins to deepen this period, with a leading
warm front swinging in later Tuesday bringing the main chance of
precipitation to the Cascades. This is followed by a cold front
and unstable upper trough Wednesday into Thursday. Despite this
the bulk of the deeper moisture is above 500mbs (~15kft) and
models paint the main precipitation chances in the mountains
through Wednesday. It is not until Thursday that the moisture
deepens enough and there is enough instability to bring some
threat of showers to the Columbia Basin. The cool upper trough
will also bring some chance of thunder Wednesday and Thursday
afternoon. Expect some increase in winds, especially around
Wednesday afternoon and evening, as gradients and mixing increases
with the incoming front. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: One wave over NE Washington and North Idaho will move
east and out of the area this evening...followed by another system
crossing the Cascades late Friday afternoon. These two features
will result in varying amounts of mid and high clouds for the TAF
sites. Near the Canadian border, deeper instability early this
evening may result in isolated thunderstorms around Bonners Ferry.
JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        57  81  53  72  49  71 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  54  81  53  71  47  70 /  10   0  10  10  10  20
Pullman        50  81  49  71  44  72 /   0   0  10   0  10  10
Lewiston       60  88  59  77  54  77 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Colville       51  82  48  75  44  74 /  10  10  10  10  20  20
Sandpoint      50  78  51  69  41  69 /  10   0  10  20  20  20
Kellogg        55  77  52  67  48  67 /   0   0  10  20  20  20
Moses Lake     55  85  51  77  48  78 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      62  82  57  76  56  77 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak           56  83  54  76  51  78 /   0  10   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 282351
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
450 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool down begins across the Inland Northwest, with an increase
of clouds and locally breezy winds. A weak system will bring a
chance of showers to the Cascades and northern mountains Friday.
Another, stronger system arrives during the holiday weekend. This
will result in breezy to windy conditions, along with an increased
chance for mountain showers. Temperatures will drop below normal
by the weekend, with low temperatures in the 30s possible Sunday
morning in the northern valleys of Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Friday: Brief ridging tonight will bring an end to
any stray showers over the northern panhandle. A stronger
shortwave will move through the region bringing a chance of
showers to the Cascades and across the northern tier. Any
precipitation will be quite local with a very low chance of any
wetting rains for the current wildfires. Thunderstorms and the
associated threat of brief heavy rain are not expected. The main
effect of this trough passage will be gusty westerly winds.
Relative humidity is already increasing this afternoon so the
threat of combined elevated winds and low RH is minimal at best.
Gusty winds will be accelerated down the east slope gap valleys
and will spread out into the Waterville Plateau, upper basin and
Palouse. Gusts will be in the 20 to 30 mph range for those favored
areas. Temperatures will start a cooling trend with readings in
the upper 70s in the northern valleys to upper 80s for the lower
valleys. /Kelch

Friday Nt through Monday: We`ve focused on three main areas.
Namely...winds Friday, wind and thunder Saturday, and cool low
temps Sunday morning. Cold fropa Saturday morning will lead to
mostly sunny skies and pleasant temps Saturday, though pressure
gradients are strong enough to produce breezy conditions...especially
near the Cascades such as the Wenatchee region. We did lower only
slightly the chance of showers and thunder for NE WA and the N ID
Panhandle for Saturday afternoon and evening. There are some level
of confidence issues concerning this, with model guidance not
agreeing with the strength and path of the vort max embedded in
the upper broad trough. The trend in guidance is for less pcpn
chances, and most locations have a sfc- based cap in the afternoon
across NE Wa and N Idaho. With winds decreasing overnight as skies
clear, Sunday morning lows could fall into the 30s across the more
sheltered NE Wa and N Idaho valleys...the typical frost-pocket
locations. Widespread frost is not expected. Wave number 2 quickly
moves across the region Sunday and Sunday night. But this wave has
a more stratified character (and even modest isentropic ascent),
so we still kept pcpn amnts light and limited to the higher
terrain for the Idaho Panhandle and the Cascades. Mon will see a
warming and drying trend with more sunshine. bz

Monday night through Thursday: Relatively benign weather is
followed by another chance of precipitation and breezy conditions
by the middle of next week. The Inland NW transitions from a
northwest to westerly flow early this period, with a relative
decrease in moisture and convective instability. One weak wave
exits through north ID at the start of the period, keeping a
slight shower threat here Monday night into Tuesday AM. Otherwise
look for dry conditions with mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions.
Late Tuesday into Thursday the next system digs south from the
Gulf of AK into the Inland NW. Models disagree over the precise
evolution of this system, especially how quickly it moves in. The
EC/GEM/GEFS have some agreement, as compared to the operational
GFS. Overall moisture begins to deepen this period, with a leading
warm front swinging in later Tuesday bringing the main chance of
precipitation to the Cascades. This is followed by a cold front
and unstable upper trough Wednesday into Thursday. Despite this
the bulk of the deeper moisture is above 500mbs (~15kft) and
models paint the main precipitation chances in the mountains
through Wednesday. It is not until Thursday that the moisture
deepens enough and there is enough instability to bring some
threat of showers to the Columbia Basin. The cool upper trough
will also bring some chance of thunder Wednesday and Thursday
afternoon. Expect some increase in winds, especially around
Wednesday afternoon and evening, as gradients and mixing increases
with the incoming front. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: One wave over NE Washington and North Idaho will move
east and out of the area this evening...followed by another system
crossing the Cascades late Friday afternoon. These two features
will result in varying amounts of mid and high clouds for the TAF
sites. Near the Canadian border, deeper instability early this
evening may result in isolated thunderstorms around Bonners Ferry.
JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        57  81  53  72  49  71 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  54  81  53  71  47  70 /  10   0  10  10  10  20
Pullman        50  81  49  71  44  72 /   0   0  10   0  10  10
Lewiston       60  88  59  77  54  77 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Colville       51  82  48  75  44  74 /  10  10  10  10  20  20
Sandpoint      50  78  51  69  41  69 /  10   0  10  20  20  20
Kellogg        55  77  52  67  48  67 /   0   0  10  20  20  20
Moses Lake     55  85  51  77  48  78 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      62  82  57  76  56  77 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak           56  83  54  76  51  78 /   0  10   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 282351
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
450 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool down begins across the Inland Northwest, with an increase
of clouds and locally breezy winds. A weak system will bring a
chance of showers to the Cascades and northern mountains Friday.
Another, stronger system arrives during the holiday weekend. This
will result in breezy to windy conditions, along with an increased
chance for mountain showers. Temperatures will drop below normal
by the weekend, with low temperatures in the 30s possible Sunday
morning in the northern valleys of Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Friday: Brief ridging tonight will bring an end to
any stray showers over the northern panhandle. A stronger
shortwave will move through the region bringing a chance of
showers to the Cascades and across the northern tier. Any
precipitation will be quite local with a very low chance of any
wetting rains for the current wildfires. Thunderstorms and the
associated threat of brief heavy rain are not expected. The main
effect of this trough passage will be gusty westerly winds.
Relative humidity is already increasing this afternoon so the
threat of combined elevated winds and low RH is minimal at best.
Gusty winds will be accelerated down the east slope gap valleys
and will spread out into the Waterville Plateau, upper basin and
Palouse. Gusts will be in the 20 to 30 mph range for those favored
areas. Temperatures will start a cooling trend with readings in
the upper 70s in the northern valleys to upper 80s for the lower
valleys. /Kelch

Friday Nt through Monday: We`ve focused on three main areas.
Namely...winds Friday, wind and thunder Saturday, and cool low
temps Sunday morning. Cold fropa Saturday morning will lead to
mostly sunny skies and pleasant temps Saturday, though pressure
gradients are strong enough to produce breezy conditions...especially
near the Cascades such as the Wenatchee region. We did lower only
slightly the chance of showers and thunder for NE WA and the N ID
Panhandle for Saturday afternoon and evening. There are some level
of confidence issues concerning this, with model guidance not
agreeing with the strength and path of the vort max embedded in
the upper broad trough. The trend in guidance is for less pcpn
chances, and most locations have a sfc- based cap in the afternoon
across NE Wa and N Idaho. With winds decreasing overnight as skies
clear, Sunday morning lows could fall into the 30s across the more
sheltered NE Wa and N Idaho valleys...the typical frost-pocket
locations. Widespread frost is not expected. Wave number 2 quickly
moves across the region Sunday and Sunday night. But this wave has
a more stratified character (and even modest isentropic ascent),
so we still kept pcpn amnts light and limited to the higher
terrain for the Idaho Panhandle and the Cascades. Mon will see a
warming and drying trend with more sunshine. bz

Monday night through Thursday: Relatively benign weather is
followed by another chance of precipitation and breezy conditions
by the middle of next week. The Inland NW transitions from a
northwest to westerly flow early this period, with a relative
decrease in moisture and convective instability. One weak wave
exits through north ID at the start of the period, keeping a
slight shower threat here Monday night into Tuesday AM. Otherwise
look for dry conditions with mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions.
Late Tuesday into Thursday the next system digs south from the
Gulf of AK into the Inland NW. Models disagree over the precise
evolution of this system, especially how quickly it moves in. The
EC/GEM/GEFS have some agreement, as compared to the operational
GFS. Overall moisture begins to deepen this period, with a leading
warm front swinging in later Tuesday bringing the main chance of
precipitation to the Cascades. This is followed by a cold front
and unstable upper trough Wednesday into Thursday. Despite this
the bulk of the deeper moisture is above 500mbs (~15kft) and
models paint the main precipitation chances in the mountains
through Wednesday. It is not until Thursday that the moisture
deepens enough and there is enough instability to bring some
threat of showers to the Columbia Basin. The cool upper trough
will also bring some chance of thunder Wednesday and Thursday
afternoon. Expect some increase in winds, especially around
Wednesday afternoon and evening, as gradients and mixing increases
with the incoming front. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: One wave over NE Washington and North Idaho will move
east and out of the area this evening...followed by another system
crossing the Cascades late Friday afternoon. These two features
will result in varying amounts of mid and high clouds for the TAF
sites. Near the Canadian border, deeper instability early this
evening may result in isolated thunderstorms around Bonners Ferry.
JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        57  81  53  72  49  71 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  54  81  53  71  47  70 /  10   0  10  10  10  20
Pullman        50  81  49  71  44  72 /   0   0  10   0  10  10
Lewiston       60  88  59  77  54  77 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Colville       51  82  48  75  44  74 /  10  10  10  10  20  20
Sandpoint      50  78  51  69  41  69 /  10   0  10  20  20  20
Kellogg        55  77  52  67  48  67 /   0   0  10  20  20  20
Moses Lake     55  85  51  77  48  78 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      62  82  57  76  56  77 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak           56  83  54  76  51  78 /   0  10   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 282234
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP MAINTAIN MARINE
CLOUDINESS IN MUCH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON THE REST OF THIS WEEK. A
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ONSHORE LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW
ON SUNDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD FOR A DRIER LABOR
DAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS
MOVES ONSHORE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC NOW. A VERY
WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING ASHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY
BREAK UP THE EXISTING MARINE LAYER TO SOME DEGREE THIS EVENING. SOME
RIDGING ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THE SHORTWAVE TONIGHT. EXPECT THE MARINE
LAYER TO FILL IN OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.

THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE WAS CROSSING 145W EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A SUPPORTING 120 KNOT JETSTREAM. 12Z PROGS ALL BRING IT ONSHORE
BY LATE FRIDAY INTRODUCING A THREAT OF SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. POSSIBLE PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW - HIGHLIGHTED IN THE WRF.

ALL THE PROGS GENERATE A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE DATELINE
THIS AFTERNOON ARRIVES SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF SHOWERS. THEN
SOME RIDGING/HIGHER HEIGHTS FOR WHAT WILL TURN IN TO A PARTLY SUNNY
LABOR DAY. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT NOT A TOTAL WASHOUT WEEKEND.
ANY RAIN AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE QUITE LIGHT. BUEHNER

.LONG TERM...THE PROGS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT STARTING ON TUESDAY WITH
THE GFS CLEARLY THE OUTLIER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE CMC AND
ECMWF BOTH DIG THE NEXT TROUGH INTO THE PACIFIC NW LATER ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT IT INLAND BY THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS LAGS
BEHIND. AGREE WITH THE PMD DISCUSSION AND HAVE THE FIRST WEEK OF
SCHOOL FORECAST INCREASING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN LATER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY. DAYTIME TEMPS DO NOT
REALLY GET MUCH OF CHANCE TO RECOVER FROM HOLIDAY WEEKEND READINGS.
BUEHNER

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE AREA FRIDAY...
HELPING KEEP SOME SOLID CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AND LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN ONSHORE.

LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AND THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER TODAY HELPED KEEP THE STRATUS LAYER IN
PLACE OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN WASHINGTON LOWLANDS WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SKIES HAVE SCATTERED OUT FROM THE NORTH OVER THE LAST
HOUR FROM THE CANADIAN BORDER TO NORTHERN KING COUNTY. EXPECT
CEILINGS FROM KBFI SOUTHWARD TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR
CONDITIONS AND ULTIMATELY SCATTER OUT AND CLEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COAST...WHICH WILL NOT CLEAR
COMPLETELY BUT REMAIN SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR THROUGH THE EVENING.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP SKIES FILL AND LOWER AGAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS
TO IFR LEVELS WITH LOCAL LIFR AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR AND EVEN VFR LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
THE PASSING YET WEAK SYSTEM WILL HELP MAINTAIN PRETTY SOLID CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE EVENING.

KSEA...CEILINGS WILL SCATTER QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH 08Z/1 AM...THEN FILL AND LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS BY AROUND
DAYBREAK AND THEN IFR LEVELS AROUND 13Z/6 AM. SLY WINDS 8 TO 10 KT
WILL BECOME SWLY AND WEAKEN TO 4 TO 6 KT AROUND 06Z/11 PM.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH WESTERN WA FRIDAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE MORNING AND THE INLAND
WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SECOND SYSTEM ON SATURDAY
WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER ALL WATERS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. KUIL TO KBLI GRADIENTS HAVE PICKED UP
OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO... EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF WESTERLIES
THROUGH THE STRAIT REACHING 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. GRADIENTS WILL RELAX FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 282234
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP MAINTAIN MARINE
CLOUDINESS IN MUCH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON THE REST OF THIS WEEK. A
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ONSHORE LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW
ON SUNDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD FOR A DRIER LABOR
DAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS
MOVES ONSHORE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC NOW. A VERY
WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING ASHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY
BREAK UP THE EXISTING MARINE LAYER TO SOME DEGREE THIS EVENING. SOME
RIDGING ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THE SHORTWAVE TONIGHT. EXPECT THE MARINE
LAYER TO FILL IN OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.

THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE WAS CROSSING 145W EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A SUPPORTING 120 KNOT JETSTREAM. 12Z PROGS ALL BRING IT ONSHORE
BY LATE FRIDAY INTRODUCING A THREAT OF SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. POSSIBLE PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW - HIGHLIGHTED IN THE WRF.

ALL THE PROGS GENERATE A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE DATELINE
THIS AFTERNOON ARRIVES SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF SHOWERS. THEN
SOME RIDGING/HIGHER HEIGHTS FOR WHAT WILL TURN IN TO A PARTLY SUNNY
LABOR DAY. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT NOT A TOTAL WASHOUT WEEKEND.
ANY RAIN AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE QUITE LIGHT. BUEHNER

.LONG TERM...THE PROGS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT STARTING ON TUESDAY WITH
THE GFS CLEARLY THE OUTLIER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE CMC AND
ECMWF BOTH DIG THE NEXT TROUGH INTO THE PACIFIC NW LATER ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT IT INLAND BY THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS LAGS
BEHIND. AGREE WITH THE PMD DISCUSSION AND HAVE THE FIRST WEEK OF
SCHOOL FORECAST INCREASING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN LATER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY. DAYTIME TEMPS DO NOT
REALLY GET MUCH OF CHANCE TO RECOVER FROM HOLIDAY WEEKEND READINGS.
BUEHNER

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE AREA FRIDAY...
HELPING KEEP SOME SOLID CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AND LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN ONSHORE.

LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AND THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER TODAY HELPED KEEP THE STRATUS LAYER IN
PLACE OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN WASHINGTON LOWLANDS WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SKIES HAVE SCATTERED OUT FROM THE NORTH OVER THE LAST
HOUR FROM THE CANADIAN BORDER TO NORTHERN KING COUNTY. EXPECT
CEILINGS FROM KBFI SOUTHWARD TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR
CONDITIONS AND ULTIMATELY SCATTER OUT AND CLEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COAST...WHICH WILL NOT CLEAR
COMPLETELY BUT REMAIN SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR THROUGH THE EVENING.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP SKIES FILL AND LOWER AGAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS
TO IFR LEVELS WITH LOCAL LIFR AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR AND EVEN VFR LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
THE PASSING YET WEAK SYSTEM WILL HELP MAINTAIN PRETTY SOLID CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE EVENING.

KSEA...CEILINGS WILL SCATTER QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH 08Z/1 AM...THEN FILL AND LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS BY AROUND
DAYBREAK AND THEN IFR LEVELS AROUND 13Z/6 AM. SLY WINDS 8 TO 10 KT
WILL BECOME SWLY AND WEAKEN TO 4 TO 6 KT AROUND 06Z/11 PM.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH WESTERN WA FRIDAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE MORNING AND THE INLAND
WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SECOND SYSTEM ON SATURDAY
WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER ALL WATERS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. KUIL TO KBLI GRADIENTS HAVE PICKED UP
OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO... EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF WESTERLIES
THROUGH THE STRAIT REACHING 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. GRADIENTS WILL RELAX FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 282234
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP MAINTAIN MARINE
CLOUDINESS IN MUCH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON THE REST OF THIS WEEK. A
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ONSHORE LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW
ON SUNDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD FOR A DRIER LABOR
DAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS
MOVES ONSHORE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC NOW. A VERY
WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING ASHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY
BREAK UP THE EXISTING MARINE LAYER TO SOME DEGREE THIS EVENING. SOME
RIDGING ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THE SHORTWAVE TONIGHT. EXPECT THE MARINE
LAYER TO FILL IN OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.

THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE WAS CROSSING 145W EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A SUPPORTING 120 KNOT JETSTREAM. 12Z PROGS ALL BRING IT ONSHORE
BY LATE FRIDAY INTRODUCING A THREAT OF SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. POSSIBLE PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW - HIGHLIGHTED IN THE WRF.

ALL THE PROGS GENERATE A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE DATELINE
THIS AFTERNOON ARRIVES SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF SHOWERS. THEN
SOME RIDGING/HIGHER HEIGHTS FOR WHAT WILL TURN IN TO A PARTLY SUNNY
LABOR DAY. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT NOT A TOTAL WASHOUT WEEKEND.
ANY RAIN AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE QUITE LIGHT. BUEHNER

.LONG TERM...THE PROGS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT STARTING ON TUESDAY WITH
THE GFS CLEARLY THE OUTLIER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE CMC AND
ECMWF BOTH DIG THE NEXT TROUGH INTO THE PACIFIC NW LATER ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT IT INLAND BY THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS LAGS
BEHIND. AGREE WITH THE PMD DISCUSSION AND HAVE THE FIRST WEEK OF
SCHOOL FORECAST INCREASING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN LATER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY. DAYTIME TEMPS DO NOT
REALLY GET MUCH OF CHANCE TO RECOVER FROM HOLIDAY WEEKEND READINGS.
BUEHNER

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE AREA FRIDAY...
HELPING KEEP SOME SOLID CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AND LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN ONSHORE.

LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AND THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER TODAY HELPED KEEP THE STRATUS LAYER IN
PLACE OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN WASHINGTON LOWLANDS WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SKIES HAVE SCATTERED OUT FROM THE NORTH OVER THE LAST
HOUR FROM THE CANADIAN BORDER TO NORTHERN KING COUNTY. EXPECT
CEILINGS FROM KBFI SOUTHWARD TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR
CONDITIONS AND ULTIMATELY SCATTER OUT AND CLEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COAST...WHICH WILL NOT CLEAR
COMPLETELY BUT REMAIN SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR THROUGH THE EVENING.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP SKIES FILL AND LOWER AGAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS
TO IFR LEVELS WITH LOCAL LIFR AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR AND EVEN VFR LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
THE PASSING YET WEAK SYSTEM WILL HELP MAINTAIN PRETTY SOLID CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE EVENING.

KSEA...CEILINGS WILL SCATTER QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH 08Z/1 AM...THEN FILL AND LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS BY AROUND
DAYBREAK AND THEN IFR LEVELS AROUND 13Z/6 AM. SLY WINDS 8 TO 10 KT
WILL BECOME SWLY AND WEAKEN TO 4 TO 6 KT AROUND 06Z/11 PM.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH WESTERN WA FRIDAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE MORNING AND THE INLAND
WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SECOND SYSTEM ON SATURDAY
WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER ALL WATERS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. KUIL TO KBLI GRADIENTS HAVE PICKED UP
OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO... EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF WESTERLIES
THROUGH THE STRAIT REACHING 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. GRADIENTS WILL RELAX FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 282234
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP MAINTAIN MARINE
CLOUDINESS IN MUCH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON THE REST OF THIS WEEK. A
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ONSHORE LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW
ON SUNDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD FOR A DRIER LABOR
DAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS
MOVES ONSHORE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC NOW. A VERY
WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING ASHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY
BREAK UP THE EXISTING MARINE LAYER TO SOME DEGREE THIS EVENING. SOME
RIDGING ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THE SHORTWAVE TONIGHT. EXPECT THE MARINE
LAYER TO FILL IN OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.

THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE WAS CROSSING 145W EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A SUPPORTING 120 KNOT JETSTREAM. 12Z PROGS ALL BRING IT ONSHORE
BY LATE FRIDAY INTRODUCING A THREAT OF SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. POSSIBLE PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW - HIGHLIGHTED IN THE WRF.

ALL THE PROGS GENERATE A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE DATELINE
THIS AFTERNOON ARRIVES SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF SHOWERS. THEN
SOME RIDGING/HIGHER HEIGHTS FOR WHAT WILL TURN IN TO A PARTLY SUNNY
LABOR DAY. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT NOT A TOTAL WASHOUT WEEKEND.
ANY RAIN AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE QUITE LIGHT. BUEHNER

.LONG TERM...THE PROGS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT STARTING ON TUESDAY WITH
THE GFS CLEARLY THE OUTLIER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE CMC AND
ECMWF BOTH DIG THE NEXT TROUGH INTO THE PACIFIC NW LATER ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT IT INLAND BY THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS LAGS
BEHIND. AGREE WITH THE PMD DISCUSSION AND HAVE THE FIRST WEEK OF
SCHOOL FORECAST INCREASING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN LATER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY. DAYTIME TEMPS DO NOT
REALLY GET MUCH OF CHANCE TO RECOVER FROM HOLIDAY WEEKEND READINGS.
BUEHNER

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE AREA FRIDAY...
HELPING KEEP SOME SOLID CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AND LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN ONSHORE.

LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AND THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER TODAY HELPED KEEP THE STRATUS LAYER IN
PLACE OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN WASHINGTON LOWLANDS WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SKIES HAVE SCATTERED OUT FROM THE NORTH OVER THE LAST
HOUR FROM THE CANADIAN BORDER TO NORTHERN KING COUNTY. EXPECT
CEILINGS FROM KBFI SOUTHWARD TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR
CONDITIONS AND ULTIMATELY SCATTER OUT AND CLEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COAST...WHICH WILL NOT CLEAR
COMPLETELY BUT REMAIN SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR THROUGH THE EVENING.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP SKIES FILL AND LOWER AGAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS
TO IFR LEVELS WITH LOCAL LIFR AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR AND EVEN VFR LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
THE PASSING YET WEAK SYSTEM WILL HELP MAINTAIN PRETTY SOLID CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE EVENING.

KSEA...CEILINGS WILL SCATTER QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH 08Z/1 AM...THEN FILL AND LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS BY AROUND
DAYBREAK AND THEN IFR LEVELS AROUND 13Z/6 AM. SLY WINDS 8 TO 10 KT
WILL BECOME SWLY AND WEAKEN TO 4 TO 6 KT AROUND 06Z/11 PM.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH WESTERN WA FRIDAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE MORNING AND THE INLAND
WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SECOND SYSTEM ON SATURDAY
WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER ALL WATERS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. KUIL TO KBLI GRADIENTS HAVE PICKED UP
OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO... EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF WESTERLIES
THROUGH THE STRAIT REACHING 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. GRADIENTS WILL RELAX FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KPQR 282142
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
242 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARM
WEATHER WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE N PAC TO ARRIVE...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND
EVEN A THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER RESUMES NEXT
WEEK...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A LINE OF CIRRUS DENOTING A VERY WEAK FRONT COULD BE
SEEN EARLIER TODAY MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND CAN STILL
FAINTLY BE MADE OUT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE STRETCHING FROM ABOUT
HERMISTON BACK TO EUGENE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT BROUGHT ESSENTIALLY NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES. BEHIND THE FRONT...MARINE PUSH TONIGHT
WILL BE STRONGER AND BRING CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA BUT ALSO
COOL MARINE AIR. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING
AND THEN HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE  COOLER THAN EARLIER THIS
WEEK.

A STRONGER FRONT..CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHERN BC COAST...COMES
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY WITH SOME SHOWER CHANCES ALONG THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS DO NOT SHOW A LOT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE EAST OF
THE COAST RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE CASCADES ANYWAY FOLLOWING THE THOUGHT THAT ENHANCED UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL ONLY INCREASE AN ALREADY EXISTING CHANCE OF
OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE THE EXPECTED PRECIP TYPE FOR ANYTHING THAT DOES
DEVELOP DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. BOWEN

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE US A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...TEMPERATES WILL STILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SLIGHTLY PROGRESSIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WE COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
WASHINGTON AND OREGON BORDER AND INTO THE NORTHERN CASCADES FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
FORECAST. THESE WILL BE FURTHER REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
NORTH COAST HAVE LIFTED TO A SCATTERED DECK IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE MARINE STRATUS WILL MOVE BACK
INTO THE COAST AFTER 02Z-03Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
MODELS INDICATE THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND PUSH
FURTHER INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND MOST OF
TONIGHT. EXPECT THE MARINE STRATUS TO PUSH INTO THE TERMINAL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING MVFR CIGS 11Z-13Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.MARINE...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE NW...BRIEFLY
SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SEAS WILL
COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 7
FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS.
TW

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 282142
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
242 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARM
WEATHER WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE N PAC TO ARRIVE...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND
EVEN A THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER RESUMES NEXT
WEEK...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A LINE OF CIRRUS DENOTING A VERY WEAK FRONT COULD BE
SEEN EARLIER TODAY MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND CAN STILL
FAINTLY BE MADE OUT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE STRETCHING FROM ABOUT
HERMISTON BACK TO EUGENE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT BROUGHT ESSENTIALLY NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES. BEHIND THE FRONT...MARINE PUSH TONIGHT
WILL BE STRONGER AND BRING CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA BUT ALSO
COOL MARINE AIR. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING
AND THEN HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE  COOLER THAN EARLIER THIS
WEEK.

A STRONGER FRONT..CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHERN BC COAST...COMES
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY WITH SOME SHOWER CHANCES ALONG THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS DO NOT SHOW A LOT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE EAST OF
THE COAST RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE CASCADES ANYWAY FOLLOWING THE THOUGHT THAT ENHANCED UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL ONLY INCREASE AN ALREADY EXISTING CHANCE OF
OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE THE EXPECTED PRECIP TYPE FOR ANYTHING THAT DOES
DEVELOP DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. BOWEN

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE US A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...TEMPERATES WILL STILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SLIGHTLY PROGRESSIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WE COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
WASHINGTON AND OREGON BORDER AND INTO THE NORTHERN CASCADES FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
FORECAST. THESE WILL BE FURTHER REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
NORTH COAST HAVE LIFTED TO A SCATTERED DECK IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE MARINE STRATUS WILL MOVE BACK
INTO THE COAST AFTER 02Z-03Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
MODELS INDICATE THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND PUSH
FURTHER INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND MOST OF
TONIGHT. EXPECT THE MARINE STRATUS TO PUSH INTO THE TERMINAL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING MVFR CIGS 11Z-13Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.MARINE...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE NW...BRIEFLY
SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SEAS WILL
COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 7
FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS.
TW

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 282142
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
242 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARM
WEATHER WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE N PAC TO ARRIVE...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND
EVEN A THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER RESUMES NEXT
WEEK...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A LINE OF CIRRUS DENOTING A VERY WEAK FRONT COULD BE
SEEN EARLIER TODAY MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND CAN STILL
FAINTLY BE MADE OUT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE STRETCHING FROM ABOUT
HERMISTON BACK TO EUGENE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT BROUGHT ESSENTIALLY NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES. BEHIND THE FRONT...MARINE PUSH TONIGHT
WILL BE STRONGER AND BRING CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA BUT ALSO
COOL MARINE AIR. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING
AND THEN HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE  COOLER THAN EARLIER THIS
WEEK.

A STRONGER FRONT..CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHERN BC COAST...COMES
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY WITH SOME SHOWER CHANCES ALONG THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS DO NOT SHOW A LOT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE EAST OF
THE COAST RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE CASCADES ANYWAY FOLLOWING THE THOUGHT THAT ENHANCED UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL ONLY INCREASE AN ALREADY EXISTING CHANCE OF
OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE THE EXPECTED PRECIP TYPE FOR ANYTHING THAT DOES
DEVELOP DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. BOWEN

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE US A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...TEMPERATES WILL STILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SLIGHTLY PROGRESSIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WE COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
WASHINGTON AND OREGON BORDER AND INTO THE NORTHERN CASCADES FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
FORECAST. THESE WILL BE FURTHER REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
NORTH COAST HAVE LIFTED TO A SCATTERED DECK IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE MARINE STRATUS WILL MOVE BACK
INTO THE COAST AFTER 02Z-03Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
MODELS INDICATE THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND PUSH
FURTHER INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND MOST OF
TONIGHT. EXPECT THE MARINE STRATUS TO PUSH INTO THE TERMINAL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING MVFR CIGS 11Z-13Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.MARINE...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE NW...BRIEFLY
SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SEAS WILL
COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 7
FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS.
TW

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 282142
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
242 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARM
WEATHER WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE N PAC TO ARRIVE...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND
EVEN A THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER RESUMES NEXT
WEEK...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A LINE OF CIRRUS DENOTING A VERY WEAK FRONT COULD BE
SEEN EARLIER TODAY MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND CAN STILL
FAINTLY BE MADE OUT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE STRETCHING FROM ABOUT
HERMISTON BACK TO EUGENE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT BROUGHT ESSENTIALLY NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES. BEHIND THE FRONT...MARINE PUSH TONIGHT
WILL BE STRONGER AND BRING CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA BUT ALSO
COOL MARINE AIR. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING
AND THEN HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE  COOLER THAN EARLIER THIS
WEEK.

A STRONGER FRONT..CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHERN BC COAST...COMES
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY WITH SOME SHOWER CHANCES ALONG THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS DO NOT SHOW A LOT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE EAST OF
THE COAST RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE CASCADES ANYWAY FOLLOWING THE THOUGHT THAT ENHANCED UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL ONLY INCREASE AN ALREADY EXISTING CHANCE OF
OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE THE EXPECTED PRECIP TYPE FOR ANYTHING THAT DOES
DEVELOP DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. BOWEN

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE US A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...TEMPERATES WILL STILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SLIGHTLY PROGRESSIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WE COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
WASHINGTON AND OREGON BORDER AND INTO THE NORTHERN CASCADES FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
FORECAST. THESE WILL BE FURTHER REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
NORTH COAST HAVE LIFTED TO A SCATTERED DECK IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE MARINE STRATUS WILL MOVE BACK
INTO THE COAST AFTER 02Z-03Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
MODELS INDICATE THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND PUSH
FURTHER INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND MOST OF
TONIGHT. EXPECT THE MARINE STRATUS TO PUSH INTO THE TERMINAL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING MVFR CIGS 11Z-13Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.MARINE...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE NW...BRIEFLY
SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SEAS WILL
COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 7
FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS.
TW

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 282137
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
237 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool down begins across the Inland Northwest, with an increase
of clouds and locally breezy winds. A weak system will bring a
chance of showers to the Cascades and northern mountains Friday.
Another, stronger system arrives during the holiday weekend. This
will result in breezy to windy conditions, along with an increased
chance for mountain showers. Temperatures will drop below normal
by the weekend, with low temperatures in the 30s possible Sunday
morning in the northern valleys of Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Friday: Brief ridging tonight will bring an end to
any stray showers over the northern panhandle. A stronger
shortwave will move through the region bringing a chance of
showers to the Cascades and across the northern tier. Any
precipitation will be quite local with a very low chance of any
wetting rains for the current wildfires. Thunderstorms and the
associated threat of brief heavy rain are not expected. The main
effect of this trough passage will be gusty westerly winds.
Relative humidity is already increasing this afternoon so the
threat of combined elevated winds and low RH is minimal at best.
Gusty winds will be accelerated down the east slope gap valleys
and will spread out into the Waterville Plateau, upper basin and
Palouse. Gusts will be in the 20 to 30 mph range for those favored
areas. Temperatures will start a cooling trend with readings in
the upper 70s in the northern valleys to upper 80s for the lower
valleys. /Kelch

Friday Nt through Monday: We`ve focused on three main areas.
Namely...winds Friday, wind and thunder Saturday, and cool low
temps Sunday morning. Cold fropa Saturday morning will lead to
mostly sunny skies and pleasant temps Saturday, though pressure
gradients are strong enough to produce breezy conditions...especially
near the Cascades such as the Wenatchee region. We did lower only
slightly the chance of showers and thunder for NE WA and the N ID
Panhandle for Saturday afternoon and evening. There are some level
of confidence issues concerning this, with model guidance not
agreeing with the strength and path of the vort max embedded in
the upper broad trough. The trend in guidance is for less pcpn
chances, and most locations have a sfc- based cap in the afternoon
across NE Wa and N Idaho. With winds decreasing overnight as skies
clear, Sunday morning lows could fall into the 30s across the more
sheltered NE Wa and N Idaho valleys...the typical frost-pocket
locations. Widespread frost is not expected. Wave number 2 quickly
moves across the region Sunday and Sunday night. But this wave has
a more stratified character (and even modest isentropic ascent),
so we still kept pcpn amnts light and limited to the higher
terrain for the Idaho Panhandle and the Cascades. Mon will see a
warming and drying trend with more sunshine. bz

Monday night through Thursday: Relatively benign weather is
followed by another chance of precipitation and breezy conditions
by the middle of next week. The Inland NW transitions from a
northwest to westerly flow early this period, with a relative
decrease in moisture and convective instability. One weak wave
exits through north ID at the start of the period, keeping a
slight shower threat here Monday night into Tuesday AM. Otherwise
look for dry conditions with mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions.
Late Tuesday into Thursday the next system digs south from the
Gulf of AK into the Inland NW. Models disagree over the precise
evolution of this system, especially how quickly it moves in. The
EC/GEM/GEFS have the some agreement, as compared to the operational
GFS. Overall moisture begins to deepen this period, with a leading
warm front swinging in later Tuesday bringing the main chance of
precipitation to the Cascades. This is followed by a cold front
and unstable upper trough Wednesday into Thursday. Despite this
the bulk of the deeper moisture is above 500mbs (~15kft) and
models paint the main precipitation chances in the mountains
through Wednesday. It is not until Thursday that the moisture
deepens enough and there is enough instability to bring some
threat of showers to the Columbia Basin. The cool upper trough
will also bring some chance of thunder Wednesday and Thursday
afternoon. Expect some increase in winds, especially around
Wednesday afternoon and evening, as gradients and mixing
increases with the incoming front. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Wave clouds continue over the Cascades this morning,
otherwise mid level moisture will be on the increase across the
northern mountains giving way to a chance of showers during the
afternoon and early evening. Isolated TS will be possible across
extreme north Idaho. This should remain north of the TAF sites.
Gusty west to southwest winds are already starting to pick up at
KPUW and will continue to develop across the area with gusts of 20
to 25 kts. Otherwise expect VFR conditions. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        57  81  53  72  49  71 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  54  81  53  71  47  70 /  10   0  10  10  10  20
Pullman        50  81  49  71  44  72 /   0   0  10   0  10  10
Lewiston       60  88  59  77  54  77 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Colville       51  82  48  75  44  74 /  10  10  10  10  20  20
Sandpoint      50  78  51  69  41  69 /  10   0  10  20  20  20
Kellogg        55  77  52  67  48  67 /   0   0  10  20  20  20
Moses Lake     55  85  51  77  48  78 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      62  82  57  76  56  77 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak           56  83  54  76  51  78 /   0  10   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 282137
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
237 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool down begins across the Inland Northwest, with an increase
of clouds and locally breezy winds. A weak system will bring a
chance of showers to the Cascades and northern mountains Friday.
Another, stronger system arrives during the holiday weekend. This
will result in breezy to windy conditions, along with an increased
chance for mountain showers. Temperatures will drop below normal
by the weekend, with low temperatures in the 30s possible Sunday
morning in the northern valleys of Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Friday: Brief ridging tonight will bring an end to
any stray showers over the northern panhandle. A stronger
shortwave will move through the region bringing a chance of
showers to the Cascades and across the northern tier. Any
precipitation will be quite local with a very low chance of any
wetting rains for the current wildfires. Thunderstorms and the
associated threat of brief heavy rain are not expected. The main
effect of this trough passage will be gusty westerly winds.
Relative humidity is already increasing this afternoon so the
threat of combined elevated winds and low RH is minimal at best.
Gusty winds will be accelerated down the east slope gap valleys
and will spread out into the Waterville Plateau, upper basin and
Palouse. Gusts will be in the 20 to 30 mph range for those favored
areas. Temperatures will start a cooling trend with readings in
the upper 70s in the northern valleys to upper 80s for the lower
valleys. /Kelch

Friday Nt through Monday: We`ve focused on three main areas.
Namely...winds Friday, wind and thunder Saturday, and cool low
temps Sunday morning. Cold fropa Saturday morning will lead to
mostly sunny skies and pleasant temps Saturday, though pressure
gradients are strong enough to produce breezy conditions...especially
near the Cascades such as the Wenatchee region. We did lower only
slightly the chance of showers and thunder for NE WA and the N ID
Panhandle for Saturday afternoon and evening. There are some level
of confidence issues concerning this, with model guidance not
agreeing with the strength and path of the vort max embedded in
the upper broad trough. The trend in guidance is for less pcpn
chances, and most locations have a sfc- based cap in the afternoon
across NE Wa and N Idaho. With winds decreasing overnight as skies
clear, Sunday morning lows could fall into the 30s across the more
sheltered NE Wa and N Idaho valleys...the typical frost-pocket
locations. Widespread frost is not expected. Wave number 2 quickly
moves across the region Sunday and Sunday night. But this wave has
a more stratified character (and even modest isentropic ascent),
so we still kept pcpn amnts light and limited to the higher
terrain for the Idaho Panhandle and the Cascades. Mon will see a
warming and drying trend with more sunshine. bz

Monday night through Thursday: Relatively benign weather is
followed by another chance of precipitation and breezy conditions
by the middle of next week. The Inland NW transitions from a
northwest to westerly flow early this period, with a relative
decrease in moisture and convective instability. One weak wave
exits through north ID at the start of the period, keeping a
slight shower threat here Monday night into Tuesday AM. Otherwise
look for dry conditions with mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions.
Late Tuesday into Thursday the next system digs south from the
Gulf of AK into the Inland NW. Models disagree over the precise
evolution of this system, especially how quickly it moves in. The
EC/GEM/GEFS have the some agreement, as compared to the operational
GFS. Overall moisture begins to deepen this period, with a leading
warm front swinging in later Tuesday bringing the main chance of
precipitation to the Cascades. This is followed by a cold front
and unstable upper trough Wednesday into Thursday. Despite this
the bulk of the deeper moisture is above 500mbs (~15kft) and
models paint the main precipitation chances in the mountains
through Wednesday. It is not until Thursday that the moisture
deepens enough and there is enough instability to bring some
threat of showers to the Columbia Basin. The cool upper trough
will also bring some chance of thunder Wednesday and Thursday
afternoon. Expect some increase in winds, especially around
Wednesday afternoon and evening, as gradients and mixing
increases with the incoming front. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Wave clouds continue over the Cascades this morning,
otherwise mid level moisture will be on the increase across the
northern mountains giving way to a chance of showers during the
afternoon and early evening. Isolated TS will be possible across
extreme north Idaho. This should remain north of the TAF sites.
Gusty west to southwest winds are already starting to pick up at
KPUW and will continue to develop across the area with gusts of 20
to 25 kts. Otherwise expect VFR conditions. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        57  81  53  72  49  71 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  54  81  53  71  47  70 /  10   0  10  10  10  20
Pullman        50  81  49  71  44  72 /   0   0  10   0  10  10
Lewiston       60  88  59  77  54  77 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Colville       51  82  48  75  44  74 /  10  10  10  10  20  20
Sandpoint      50  78  51  69  41  69 /  10   0  10  20  20  20
Kellogg        55  77  52  67  48  67 /   0   0  10  20  20  20
Moses Lake     55  85  51  77  48  78 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      62  82  57  76  56  77 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak           56  83  54  76  51  78 /   0  10   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 281736
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1036 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather will begin a cool down today with an increase of
clouds and locally breezy winds. The next storm system will arrive
during the holiday weekend. This will result in breezy to windy
conditions along with an increased chance for mountain showers.
Temperatures will drop below normal by the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update to increase the winds across the basin and Palouse
for the late morning period as surface observations show gusty
winds increasing at KPUW already. Slight chance thunderstorms was
also added to the northern panhandle of Idaho for the
afternoon/early evening hours. Instability looks adequate and SPC
has the panhandle in the general thunder area today. This current
wave is still looking rather weak so PoPs will remain limited to
the northern tier today. Other minor adjustments made to account
for current trends in observations.

On the Fire Weather side of the forecast, MOS guidance indicates
increased winds at KEAT for the afternoon but RH values do not
reach critical levels for fire weather highlights. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
18z TAFS: Wave clouds continue over the Cascades this morning,
otherwise mid level moisture will be on the increase across the
northern mountains giving way to a chance of showers during the
afternoon and early evening. Isolated TS will be possible across
extreme north Idaho. This should remain north of the TAF sites.
Gusty west to southwest winds are already starting to pick up at
KPUW and will continue to develop across the area with gusts of 20
to 25 kts. Otherwise expect VFR conditions. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        83  58  81  53  72  49 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  82  55  81  53  71  47 /   0  10   0  10  10  10
Pullman        82  51  81  49  71  44 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       89  61  88  59  77  54 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       87  53  82  48  75  44 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
Sandpoint      81  51  78  51  69  41 /  10  10   0  10  30  20
Kellogg        79  57  77  52  67  48 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Moses Lake     89  56  85  51  77  48 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      87  62  82  57  76  56 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           86  56  83  54  76  51 /  10   0  10   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 281642
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
942 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARM
WEATHER WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE N PAC TO ARRIVE...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND
EVEN A THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER RESUMES NEXT
WEEK...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A THIN MARINE
STRATUS LAYER ALONG THE COAST PARTICULARLY AROUND THE INLETS AND
BAYS...WITH THE STRATUS PUSH ALL THE WAY TO THE FOOTHILLS ALONG THE
COLUMBIA. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INLAND THIS MORNING...MOSTLY
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST OF A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS WILL
BRUSH NORTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS EVENING AND MOST
EVERYONE WILL WAKE UP TO  CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...LOWS
TONIGHT MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. NOT A
LOT OF CHANGE WITH THE MODELS THIS MORNING...SO HAVE LEFT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS IN FRIDAY WITH CHANCE ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS SECOND FRONT WILL USHER IN A SHORT PERIOD
OF EVEN COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ON
SATURDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
BOWEN

.LONG TERM...ECMWF...GFS AND DGEX TODAY DRASTICALLY CUT BACK ON
MOISTURE OVER OUR CWA FOR THIS WEEKEND...AND REMOVED MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THROUGH MONDAY.  THIS GOES
WITH THE TREND AND CLIMATOLOGY OF TROUGHS FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
TIME OF YEAR WHERE MOISTURE ISN`T SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OVER MOST OF OUR AREA. I LEFT A CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OVER THE OR COASTAL RANGE AND WA...BUT REDUCED POPS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF AND DROPPED POPS
INLAND SOUTH. EARLY NEXT WEEK WEAK RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD IN
INDICATING A WARMING TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MARINE CLOUDS REMAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST THIS
MORNING BRINGING PREDOMINATELY IFR CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COAST.
THE STRATUS WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST BY MID
TO LATE MORNING FOR VFR CONDITIONS. THE LOW MARINE CLOUDS MOVED
UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER TO KELSO AND THE PORTLAND-TROUTDALE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS. THE MARINE CLOUDS OVER THE INLAND AREA
WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE AROUND 18Z-19Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OUT ON THE COAST...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE MVFR ON THE NORTH COAST MOST OF THE DAY AND VFR FROM
CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH BY LATE MORNING. IFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST REGION THIS EVENING. MARINE STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO PUSH
FURTHER INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LOW MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING THROUGH
18Z....THEN VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THERE IS
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE NW...BRIEFLY
SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SEAS WILL
COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 7
FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS.
TW

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 281642
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
942 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARM
WEATHER WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE N PAC TO ARRIVE...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND
EVEN A THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER RESUMES NEXT
WEEK...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A THIN MARINE
STRATUS LAYER ALONG THE COAST PARTICULARLY AROUND THE INLETS AND
BAYS...WITH THE STRATUS PUSH ALL THE WAY TO THE FOOTHILLS ALONG THE
COLUMBIA. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INLAND THIS MORNING...MOSTLY
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST OF A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS WILL
BRUSH NORTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS EVENING AND MOST
EVERYONE WILL WAKE UP TO  CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...LOWS
TONIGHT MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. NOT A
LOT OF CHANGE WITH THE MODELS THIS MORNING...SO HAVE LEFT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS IN FRIDAY WITH CHANCE ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS SECOND FRONT WILL USHER IN A SHORT PERIOD
OF EVEN COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ON
SATURDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
BOWEN

.LONG TERM...ECMWF...GFS AND DGEX TODAY DRASTICALLY CUT BACK ON
MOISTURE OVER OUR CWA FOR THIS WEEKEND...AND REMOVED MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THROUGH MONDAY.  THIS GOES
WITH THE TREND AND CLIMATOLOGY OF TROUGHS FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
TIME OF YEAR WHERE MOISTURE ISN`T SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OVER MOST OF OUR AREA. I LEFT A CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OVER THE OR COASTAL RANGE AND WA...BUT REDUCED POPS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF AND DROPPED POPS
INLAND SOUTH. EARLY NEXT WEEK WEAK RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD IN
INDICATING A WARMING TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MARINE CLOUDS REMAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST THIS
MORNING BRINGING PREDOMINATELY IFR CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COAST.
THE STRATUS WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST BY MID
TO LATE MORNING FOR VFR CONDITIONS. THE LOW MARINE CLOUDS MOVED
UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER TO KELSO AND THE PORTLAND-TROUTDALE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS. THE MARINE CLOUDS OVER THE INLAND AREA
WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE AROUND 18Z-19Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OUT ON THE COAST...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE MVFR ON THE NORTH COAST MOST OF THE DAY AND VFR FROM
CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH BY LATE MORNING. IFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST REGION THIS EVENING. MARINE STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO PUSH
FURTHER INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LOW MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING THROUGH
18Z....THEN VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THERE IS
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE NW...BRIEFLY
SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SEAS WILL
COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 7
FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS.
TW

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 281642
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
942 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARM
WEATHER WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE N PAC TO ARRIVE...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND
EVEN A THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER RESUMES NEXT
WEEK...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A THIN MARINE
STRATUS LAYER ALONG THE COAST PARTICULARLY AROUND THE INLETS AND
BAYS...WITH THE STRATUS PUSH ALL THE WAY TO THE FOOTHILLS ALONG THE
COLUMBIA. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INLAND THIS MORNING...MOSTLY
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST OF A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS WILL
BRUSH NORTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS EVENING AND MOST
EVERYONE WILL WAKE UP TO  CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...LOWS
TONIGHT MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. NOT A
LOT OF CHANGE WITH THE MODELS THIS MORNING...SO HAVE LEFT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS IN FRIDAY WITH CHANCE ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS SECOND FRONT WILL USHER IN A SHORT PERIOD
OF EVEN COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ON
SATURDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
BOWEN

.LONG TERM...ECMWF...GFS AND DGEX TODAY DRASTICALLY CUT BACK ON
MOISTURE OVER OUR CWA FOR THIS WEEKEND...AND REMOVED MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THROUGH MONDAY.  THIS GOES
WITH THE TREND AND CLIMATOLOGY OF TROUGHS FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
TIME OF YEAR WHERE MOISTURE ISN`T SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OVER MOST OF OUR AREA. I LEFT A CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OVER THE OR COASTAL RANGE AND WA...BUT REDUCED POPS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF AND DROPPED POPS
INLAND SOUTH. EARLY NEXT WEEK WEAK RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD IN
INDICATING A WARMING TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MARINE CLOUDS REMAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST THIS
MORNING BRINGING PREDOMINATELY IFR CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COAST.
THE STRATUS WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST BY MID
TO LATE MORNING FOR VFR CONDITIONS. THE LOW MARINE CLOUDS MOVED
UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER TO KELSO AND THE PORTLAND-TROUTDALE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS. THE MARINE CLOUDS OVER THE INLAND AREA
WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE AROUND 18Z-19Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OUT ON THE COAST...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE MVFR ON THE NORTH COAST MOST OF THE DAY AND VFR FROM
CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH BY LATE MORNING. IFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST REGION THIS EVENING. MARINE STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO PUSH
FURTHER INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LOW MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING THROUGH
18Z....THEN VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THERE IS
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE NW...BRIEFLY
SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SEAS WILL
COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 7
FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS.
TW

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 281642
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
942 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARM
WEATHER WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE N PAC TO ARRIVE...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND
EVEN A THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER RESUMES NEXT
WEEK...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A THIN MARINE
STRATUS LAYER ALONG THE COAST PARTICULARLY AROUND THE INLETS AND
BAYS...WITH THE STRATUS PUSH ALL THE WAY TO THE FOOTHILLS ALONG THE
COLUMBIA. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INLAND THIS MORNING...MOSTLY
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST OF A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS WILL
BRUSH NORTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS EVENING AND MOST
EVERYONE WILL WAKE UP TO  CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...LOWS
TONIGHT MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. NOT A
LOT OF CHANGE WITH THE MODELS THIS MORNING...SO HAVE LEFT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS IN FRIDAY WITH CHANCE ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS SECOND FRONT WILL USHER IN A SHORT PERIOD
OF EVEN COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ON
SATURDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
BOWEN

.LONG TERM...ECMWF...GFS AND DGEX TODAY DRASTICALLY CUT BACK ON
MOISTURE OVER OUR CWA FOR THIS WEEKEND...AND REMOVED MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THROUGH MONDAY.  THIS GOES
WITH THE TREND AND CLIMATOLOGY OF TROUGHS FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
TIME OF YEAR WHERE MOISTURE ISN`T SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OVER MOST OF OUR AREA. I LEFT A CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OVER THE OR COASTAL RANGE AND WA...BUT REDUCED POPS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF AND DROPPED POPS
INLAND SOUTH. EARLY NEXT WEEK WEAK RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD IN
INDICATING A WARMING TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MARINE CLOUDS REMAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST THIS
MORNING BRINGING PREDOMINATELY IFR CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COAST.
THE STRATUS WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST BY MID
TO LATE MORNING FOR VFR CONDITIONS. THE LOW MARINE CLOUDS MOVED
UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER TO KELSO AND THE PORTLAND-TROUTDALE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS. THE MARINE CLOUDS OVER THE INLAND AREA
WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE AROUND 18Z-19Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OUT ON THE COAST...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE MVFR ON THE NORTH COAST MOST OF THE DAY AND VFR FROM
CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH BY LATE MORNING. IFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST REGION THIS EVENING. MARINE STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO PUSH
FURTHER INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LOW MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING THROUGH
18Z....THEN VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THERE IS
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE NW...BRIEFLY
SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SEAS WILL
COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 7
FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS.
TW

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 281612
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
915 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP PRODUCE MARINE
CLOUDINESS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF WESTERN WA TODAY. A
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ONSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW
ON SUNDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD FOR A DRIER LABOR
DAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC IS MORE ZONAL NOW.
THE UPPER RIDGE FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS FLATTENED AND MOVED INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A QUITE WEAK POSITIVE TILTED SHORTWAVE NEAR
130W THIS MORNING SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE TODAY. SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND KEEPING AN EYE ON DOPPLER
RADAR IN CASE THERE IS ANY LIGHT PRECIP.

THIS SHORTWAVE HELPED INDUCE STRONGER LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON HAS A MARINE CLOUD LAYER THIS
MORNING. 12Z KUIL RAOB SHOWS TOPS NEAR 2700 FEET. TOPS REPORTS FROM
SEATTLE APPROACH AROUND 15Z WERE BETWEEN 2200 AND 2400 FEET. THE
COMBO OF THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
LIMIT THE BREAKOUT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST COOLER HIGH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY - GIVE OR
TAKE. MADE A FEW GRID ADJUSTMENTS FOR SKY...POP AND QPF INTO TONIGHT
TO REFLECT CURRENT AND SHORT-TERM FORECASTS.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING NEAR 135W THIS MORNING SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE THIS
EVENING. A STRONGER LOOKING SHORTWAVE CROSSING 145W THIS MORNING
WITH AN ASSOCIATED 120 KT JET MAX...12Z PROGS IN THUS FAR BRING THIS
ONSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR A GREATER THREAT OF SHOWERS
MAINLY COAST AND MOUNTAINS. THE FLOW PATTERN MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF
PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

A FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE SUNDAY SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
GOING. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AS
WELL. BUEHNER

.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ON LABOR DAY. IF THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT...DAYTIME TEMPS ON MON COULD END UP ABOUT
NORMAL. THUS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY ON THE
COOL-SIDE FOR MON.

BEYOND MON...IT APPEARED THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL RETURN TO COOL AND UNSETTLED. IF THE ECMWF AND GFS
END UP BEING CORRECT...MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WILL ONLY BE
IN THE 50S NEXT WED. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN MODEL WAS WARMER FOR
DAY 7 AND INDICATED HIGHS IN THE 60S. ALL THREE MODELS HAD AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR FORECAST
MIGHT BE ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL NEED TO SEE IF THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF AN UPPER TROF OVER THE CWA LATE IN THE
PERIOD. LEFT THE INHERITED FORECAST UNCHANGED FOR THIS REASON. NC

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE STRATUS LAYER OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON TODAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN ONSHORE.

LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AND THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE
STRATUS LAYER CURRENTLY COVERING MOST OF THE WESTERN WASHINGTON
LOWLANDS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS TO RISE TO MVFR LEVELS AROUND
MIDDAY...THEN TO IFR LEVEL DURING THE AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT SKIES
TO SCATTER OUT MUCH BEYOND BROKEN CONDITIONS BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY HELP BREAK THINGS UP A BIT TO THE
LEE OF THE OLYMPICS. EXPECT CEILINGS TO FILL AND LOWER AGAIN OVER
THE LOWLANDS TO IFR LEVELS AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING.

KSEA...IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 18Z...RISING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TO MVFR AND THEN IFR LEVELS...BUT REMAINING OVERCAST TO
BROKEN.  LIGHT SLY WINDS 4 TO 6 KT WILL BECOME SWLY AND STRENGTHEN
SOMEWHAT TO 6 TO 8 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL FILL
OVERNIGHT AND LOWER AROUND DAYBREAK TO IFR LEVELS.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL AFFECT WESTERN WA THIS TODAY FOLLOWED
BY A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM WILL REACH THE AREA ON FRI. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GRADIENTS HAVE RELAXED A BIT THIS
MORNING WITH WINDS THROUGH THE STRAIT COMING DOWN TO 20 TO 25 KT
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT. GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN
THIS EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
THROUGH THE STRAIT TONIGHT IN THE POST-FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 281612
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
915 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP PRODUCE MARINE
CLOUDINESS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF WESTERN WA TODAY. A
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ONSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW
ON SUNDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD FOR A DRIER LABOR
DAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC IS MORE ZONAL NOW.
THE UPPER RIDGE FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS FLATTENED AND MOVED INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A QUITE WEAK POSITIVE TILTED SHORTWAVE NEAR
130W THIS MORNING SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE TODAY. SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND KEEPING AN EYE ON DOPPLER
RADAR IN CASE THERE IS ANY LIGHT PRECIP.

THIS SHORTWAVE HELPED INDUCE STRONGER LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON HAS A MARINE CLOUD LAYER THIS
MORNING. 12Z KUIL RAOB SHOWS TOPS NEAR 2700 FEET. TOPS REPORTS FROM
SEATTLE APPROACH AROUND 15Z WERE BETWEEN 2200 AND 2400 FEET. THE
COMBO OF THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
LIMIT THE BREAKOUT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST COOLER HIGH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY - GIVE OR
TAKE. MADE A FEW GRID ADJUSTMENTS FOR SKY...POP AND QPF INTO TONIGHT
TO REFLECT CURRENT AND SHORT-TERM FORECASTS.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING NEAR 135W THIS MORNING SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE THIS
EVENING. A STRONGER LOOKING SHORTWAVE CROSSING 145W THIS MORNING
WITH AN ASSOCIATED 120 KT JET MAX...12Z PROGS IN THUS FAR BRING THIS
ONSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR A GREATER THREAT OF SHOWERS
MAINLY COAST AND MOUNTAINS. THE FLOW PATTERN MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF
PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

A FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE SUNDAY SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
GOING. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AS
WELL. BUEHNER

.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ON LABOR DAY. IF THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT...DAYTIME TEMPS ON MON COULD END UP ABOUT
NORMAL. THUS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY ON THE
COOL-SIDE FOR MON.

BEYOND MON...IT APPEARED THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL RETURN TO COOL AND UNSETTLED. IF THE ECMWF AND GFS
END UP BEING CORRECT...MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WILL ONLY BE
IN THE 50S NEXT WED. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN MODEL WAS WARMER FOR
DAY 7 AND INDICATED HIGHS IN THE 60S. ALL THREE MODELS HAD AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR FORECAST
MIGHT BE ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL NEED TO SEE IF THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF AN UPPER TROF OVER THE CWA LATE IN THE
PERIOD. LEFT THE INHERITED FORECAST UNCHANGED FOR THIS REASON. NC

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE STRATUS LAYER OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON TODAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN ONSHORE.

LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AND THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE
STRATUS LAYER CURRENTLY COVERING MOST OF THE WESTERN WASHINGTON
LOWLANDS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS TO RISE TO MVFR LEVELS AROUND
MIDDAY...THEN TO IFR LEVEL DURING THE AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT SKIES
TO SCATTER OUT MUCH BEYOND BROKEN CONDITIONS BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY HELP BREAK THINGS UP A BIT TO THE
LEE OF THE OLYMPICS. EXPECT CEILINGS TO FILL AND LOWER AGAIN OVER
THE LOWLANDS TO IFR LEVELS AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING.

KSEA...IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 18Z...RISING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TO MVFR AND THEN IFR LEVELS...BUT REMAINING OVERCAST TO
BROKEN.  LIGHT SLY WINDS 4 TO 6 KT WILL BECOME SWLY AND STRENGTHEN
SOMEWHAT TO 6 TO 8 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL FILL
OVERNIGHT AND LOWER AROUND DAYBREAK TO IFR LEVELS.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL AFFECT WESTERN WA THIS TODAY FOLLOWED
BY A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM WILL REACH THE AREA ON FRI. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GRADIENTS HAVE RELAXED A BIT THIS
MORNING WITH WINDS THROUGH THE STRAIT COMING DOWN TO 20 TO 25 KT
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT. GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN
THIS EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
THROUGH THE STRAIT TONIGHT IN THE POST-FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 281612
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
915 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP PRODUCE MARINE
CLOUDINESS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF WESTERN WA TODAY. A
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ONSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW
ON SUNDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD FOR A DRIER LABOR
DAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC IS MORE ZONAL NOW.
THE UPPER RIDGE FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS FLATTENED AND MOVED INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A QUITE WEAK POSITIVE TILTED SHORTWAVE NEAR
130W THIS MORNING SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE TODAY. SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND KEEPING AN EYE ON DOPPLER
RADAR IN CASE THERE IS ANY LIGHT PRECIP.

THIS SHORTWAVE HELPED INDUCE STRONGER LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON HAS A MARINE CLOUD LAYER THIS
MORNING. 12Z KUIL RAOB SHOWS TOPS NEAR 2700 FEET. TOPS REPORTS FROM
SEATTLE APPROACH AROUND 15Z WERE BETWEEN 2200 AND 2400 FEET. THE
COMBO OF THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
LIMIT THE BREAKOUT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST COOLER HIGH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY - GIVE OR
TAKE. MADE A FEW GRID ADJUSTMENTS FOR SKY...POP AND QPF INTO TONIGHT
TO REFLECT CURRENT AND SHORT-TERM FORECASTS.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING NEAR 135W THIS MORNING SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE THIS
EVENING. A STRONGER LOOKING SHORTWAVE CROSSING 145W THIS MORNING
WITH AN ASSOCIATED 120 KT JET MAX...12Z PROGS IN THUS FAR BRING THIS
ONSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR A GREATER THREAT OF SHOWERS
MAINLY COAST AND MOUNTAINS. THE FLOW PATTERN MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF
PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

A FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE SUNDAY SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
GOING. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AS
WELL. BUEHNER

.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ON LABOR DAY. IF THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT...DAYTIME TEMPS ON MON COULD END UP ABOUT
NORMAL. THUS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY ON THE
COOL-SIDE FOR MON.

BEYOND MON...IT APPEARED THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL RETURN TO COOL AND UNSETTLED. IF THE ECMWF AND GFS
END UP BEING CORRECT...MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WILL ONLY BE
IN THE 50S NEXT WED. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN MODEL WAS WARMER FOR
DAY 7 AND INDICATED HIGHS IN THE 60S. ALL THREE MODELS HAD AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR FORECAST
MIGHT BE ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL NEED TO SEE IF THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF AN UPPER TROF OVER THE CWA LATE IN THE
PERIOD. LEFT THE INHERITED FORECAST UNCHANGED FOR THIS REASON. NC

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE STRATUS LAYER OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON TODAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN ONSHORE.

LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AND THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE
STRATUS LAYER CURRENTLY COVERING MOST OF THE WESTERN WASHINGTON
LOWLANDS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS TO RISE TO MVFR LEVELS AROUND
MIDDAY...THEN TO IFR LEVEL DURING THE AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT SKIES
TO SCATTER OUT MUCH BEYOND BROKEN CONDITIONS BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY HELP BREAK THINGS UP A BIT TO THE
LEE OF THE OLYMPICS. EXPECT CEILINGS TO FILL AND LOWER AGAIN OVER
THE LOWLANDS TO IFR LEVELS AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING.

KSEA...IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 18Z...RISING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TO MVFR AND THEN IFR LEVELS...BUT REMAINING OVERCAST TO
BROKEN.  LIGHT SLY WINDS 4 TO 6 KT WILL BECOME SWLY AND STRENGTHEN
SOMEWHAT TO 6 TO 8 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL FILL
OVERNIGHT AND LOWER AROUND DAYBREAK TO IFR LEVELS.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL AFFECT WESTERN WA THIS TODAY FOLLOWED
BY A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM WILL REACH THE AREA ON FRI. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GRADIENTS HAVE RELAXED A BIT THIS
MORNING WITH WINDS THROUGH THE STRAIT COMING DOWN TO 20 TO 25 KT
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT. GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN
THIS EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
THROUGH THE STRAIT TONIGHT IN THE POST-FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 281612
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
915 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP PRODUCE MARINE
CLOUDINESS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF WESTERN WA TODAY. A
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ONSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW
ON SUNDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD FOR A DRIER LABOR
DAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC IS MORE ZONAL NOW.
THE UPPER RIDGE FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS FLATTENED AND MOVED INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A QUITE WEAK POSITIVE TILTED SHORTWAVE NEAR
130W THIS MORNING SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE TODAY. SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND KEEPING AN EYE ON DOPPLER
RADAR IN CASE THERE IS ANY LIGHT PRECIP.

THIS SHORTWAVE HELPED INDUCE STRONGER LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON HAS A MARINE CLOUD LAYER THIS
MORNING. 12Z KUIL RAOB SHOWS TOPS NEAR 2700 FEET. TOPS REPORTS FROM
SEATTLE APPROACH AROUND 15Z WERE BETWEEN 2200 AND 2400 FEET. THE
COMBO OF THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
LIMIT THE BREAKOUT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST COOLER HIGH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY - GIVE OR
TAKE. MADE A FEW GRID ADJUSTMENTS FOR SKY...POP AND QPF INTO TONIGHT
TO REFLECT CURRENT AND SHORT-TERM FORECASTS.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING NEAR 135W THIS MORNING SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE THIS
EVENING. A STRONGER LOOKING SHORTWAVE CROSSING 145W THIS MORNING
WITH AN ASSOCIATED 120 KT JET MAX...12Z PROGS IN THUS FAR BRING THIS
ONSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR A GREATER THREAT OF SHOWERS
MAINLY COAST AND MOUNTAINS. THE FLOW PATTERN MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF
PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

A FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE SUNDAY SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
GOING. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AS
WELL. BUEHNER

.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ON LABOR DAY. IF THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT...DAYTIME TEMPS ON MON COULD END UP ABOUT
NORMAL. THUS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY ON THE
COOL-SIDE FOR MON.

BEYOND MON...IT APPEARED THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL RETURN TO COOL AND UNSETTLED. IF THE ECMWF AND GFS
END UP BEING CORRECT...MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WILL ONLY BE
IN THE 50S NEXT WED. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN MODEL WAS WARMER FOR
DAY 7 AND INDICATED HIGHS IN THE 60S. ALL THREE MODELS HAD AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR FORECAST
MIGHT BE ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL NEED TO SEE IF THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF AN UPPER TROF OVER THE CWA LATE IN THE
PERIOD. LEFT THE INHERITED FORECAST UNCHANGED FOR THIS REASON. NC

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE STRATUS LAYER OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON TODAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN ONSHORE.

LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AND THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE
STRATUS LAYER CURRENTLY COVERING MOST OF THE WESTERN WASHINGTON
LOWLANDS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS TO RISE TO MVFR LEVELS AROUND
MIDDAY...THEN TO IFR LEVEL DURING THE AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT SKIES
TO SCATTER OUT MUCH BEYOND BROKEN CONDITIONS BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY HELP BREAK THINGS UP A BIT TO THE
LEE OF THE OLYMPICS. EXPECT CEILINGS TO FILL AND LOWER AGAIN OVER
THE LOWLANDS TO IFR LEVELS AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING.

KSEA...IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 18Z...RISING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TO MVFR AND THEN IFR LEVELS...BUT REMAINING OVERCAST TO
BROKEN.  LIGHT SLY WINDS 4 TO 6 KT WILL BECOME SWLY AND STRENGTHEN
SOMEWHAT TO 6 TO 8 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL FILL
OVERNIGHT AND LOWER AROUND DAYBREAK TO IFR LEVELS.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL AFFECT WESTERN WA THIS TODAY FOLLOWED
BY A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM WILL REACH THE AREA ON FRI. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GRADIENTS HAVE RELAXED A BIT THIS
MORNING WITH WINDS THROUGH THE STRAIT COMING DOWN TO 20 TO 25 KT
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT. GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN
THIS EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
THROUGH THE STRAIT TONIGHT IN THE POST-FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KOTX 281139
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
439 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather will begin a cool down today with an increase of
clouds and locally breezy winds. The next storm system will arrive
during the holiday weekend. This will result in breezy to windy
conditions along with an increased chance for mountain showers
along with temperatures dropping below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today, tonight and Friday: Westerly flow aloft prevails across the
Inland Northwest as the strong upper level ridge weakens and get
shunted south. This will also begin the gradually cooldown for the
rest of the week. There will be a few disturbances rolling through
the upper flow that will give the region an increase of cloud
cover and the chance of showers. Currently one weak impulse is
skirting over southern BC with isolated showers and thunderstorms
this morning. There is a small chance of showers may brush near
the Canadian border and north Idaho early this morning as this
impulse slides east. Mid level moisture will linger through the
day as a stronger shortwave swings in from the BC coast inland
and pushes a thinning frontal boundary along the Canadian border.
Surface based instability increases across the northern mountains,
and there is a renewed chance of showers late this afternoon and
early evening. Southwest to westerly surface winds will pick up
this afternoon especially in the lee side valleys and across the
Columbia Basin with local gusts to 25 mph. Expect temperatures
about 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday. Late tonight, the
frontal boundary exits the region and a shortwave ridge builds in.
Winds will taper off in all by the lee side valleys as downslope
flow gets enhanced. On Friday, the next stronger shortwave will
dig a little further south and push a frontal boundary into
Washington. Expect an increase in clouds and a chance of showers
across the Cascades by Friday afternoon. Westerly winds will
become breezy again in the afternoon, as temperatures continue to
cool a few more degrees to the upper 70s to lower 80s, which is
pretty close to seasonal normals. /rfox.

Friday night through Thursday...Models are in good agreement in
depicting a more progressive...somewhat more showery and
definitely cooler and windier pattern from this weekend well into
next week. A series of fast moving and generally weak short waves
will clip through the forecast area Friday night and Saturday...on
or about Monday...and again on or about Wednesday with the
Wednesday trough shaping up to be a stronger system. The
interregnum periods between these waves will feature a northwest
or zonal flow regime.

None of these disturbances appear to be strong enough or dynamic
enough to create any widespread or sure bet precipitation
threats...but all have the potential for scattered showers and
isolated afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains arcing the
Columbia Basin. In the basin itself the main issue will be breezy
and occasionally gusty winds as a persistent westerly gradient
and advection of a cooler maritime air mass sets up and continues
through the period.

Expect a generally breezy Labor Day weekend with temperatures
reaching only into the 70s at most populated low land locations
from Saturday through Monday...and continuing on into the next
work week as this progressive Pacific pattern prevents any
significantly warmer air masses from becoming established before
being eroded by the next wave. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
12z TAFS: Will see some wave cloud development of high clouds over
the Cascades this morning, otherwise mid level moisture will be on
the increase across the northern mountains giving way to a chance
of showers during the afternoon and early evening. This should
remain north of the TAF sites. Gusty west to southwest will
develop between 21z and 29/02z. Otherwise expect VFR conditions.
/rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        83  58  81  53  72  49 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  82  55  81  53  71  47 /   0  10   0  10  10  10
Pullman        82  51  81  49  71  44 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       89  61  88  59  77  54 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       87  53  82  48  75  44 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
Sandpoint      81  51  78  51  69  41 /  10  10   0  10  30  20
Kellogg        79  57  77  52  67  48 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Moses Lake     89  56  85  51  77  48 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      87  62  82  57  76  56 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           86  56  83  54  76  51 /  10   0  10   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 281139
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
439 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather will begin a cool down today with an increase of
clouds and locally breezy winds. The next storm system will arrive
during the holiday weekend. This will result in breezy to windy
conditions along with an increased chance for mountain showers
along with temperatures dropping below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today, tonight and Friday: Westerly flow aloft prevails across the
Inland Northwest as the strong upper level ridge weakens and get
shunted south. This will also begin the gradually cooldown for the
rest of the week. There will be a few disturbances rolling through
the upper flow that will give the region an increase of cloud
cover and the chance of showers. Currently one weak impulse is
skirting over southern BC with isolated showers and thunderstorms
this morning. There is a small chance of showers may brush near
the Canadian border and north Idaho early this morning as this
impulse slides east. Mid level moisture will linger through the
day as a stronger shortwave swings in from the BC coast inland
and pushes a thinning frontal boundary along the Canadian border.
Surface based instability increases across the northern mountains,
and there is a renewed chance of showers late this afternoon and
early evening. Southwest to westerly surface winds will pick up
this afternoon especially in the lee side valleys and across the
Columbia Basin with local gusts to 25 mph. Expect temperatures
about 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday. Late tonight, the
frontal boundary exits the region and a shortwave ridge builds in.
Winds will taper off in all by the lee side valleys as downslope
flow gets enhanced. On Friday, the next stronger shortwave will
dig a little further south and push a frontal boundary into
Washington. Expect an increase in clouds and a chance of showers
across the Cascades by Friday afternoon. Westerly winds will
become breezy again in the afternoon, as temperatures continue to
cool a few more degrees to the upper 70s to lower 80s, which is
pretty close to seasonal normals. /rfox.

Friday night through Thursday...Models are in good agreement in
depicting a more progressive...somewhat more showery and
definitely cooler and windier pattern from this weekend well into
next week. A series of fast moving and generally weak short waves
will clip through the forecast area Friday night and Saturday...on
or about Monday...and again on or about Wednesday with the
Wednesday trough shaping up to be a stronger system. The
interregnum periods between these waves will feature a northwest
or zonal flow regime.

None of these disturbances appear to be strong enough or dynamic
enough to create any widespread or sure bet precipitation
threats...but all have the potential for scattered showers and
isolated afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains arcing the
Columbia Basin. In the basin itself the main issue will be breezy
and occasionally gusty winds as a persistent westerly gradient
and advection of a cooler maritime air mass sets up and continues
through the period.

Expect a generally breezy Labor Day weekend with temperatures
reaching only into the 70s at most populated low land locations
from Saturday through Monday...and continuing on into the next
work week as this progressive Pacific pattern prevents any
significantly warmer air masses from becoming established before
being eroded by the next wave. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
12z TAFS: Will see some wave cloud development of high clouds over
the Cascades this morning, otherwise mid level moisture will be on
the increase across the northern mountains giving way to a chance
of showers during the afternoon and early evening. This should
remain north of the TAF sites. Gusty west to southwest will
develop between 21z and 29/02z. Otherwise expect VFR conditions.
/rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        83  58  81  53  72  49 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  82  55  81  53  71  47 /   0  10   0  10  10  10
Pullman        82  51  81  49  71  44 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       89  61  88  59  77  54 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       87  53  82  48  75  44 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
Sandpoint      81  51  78  51  69  41 /  10  10   0  10  30  20
Kellogg        79  57  77  52  67  48 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Moses Lake     89  56  85  51  77  48 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      87  62  82  57  76  56 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           86  56  83  54  76  51 /  10   0  10   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 281029
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
329 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY FOR COOLER WEATHER. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND BELOW
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
STRATUS /ALONG WITH SOME FOG/ CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS THIS MORNING. THERE WAS ALSO A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK
PRESENT OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
BLANKET MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS BY MIDMORNING.

MEANWHILE...A WEAK UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
THE MAIN IMPACT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON OUR WEATHER WILL BE
COOLER TEMPS...WITH READINGS AT MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON
PREDICTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A RISK OF LIGHT PRECIP ON THE COAST...OLYMPICS...AND NORTH
CASCADES TODAY.

ANOTHER...BUT STRONGER...UPPER TROF WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND THIS WILL SERVE TO SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPEN THE
MARINE LAYER. THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON FRIDAY...LEADING TO A THREAT OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
COAST...MOUNTAINS...AND WITHIN THE PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE
/PSCZ/. THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER TROF...PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AND
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON FRI.

THE UPPER TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BUT
500 MB HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 570 DAM OVER THE CWA. OVERALL...
SATURDAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN FRI. THUS
ANTICIPATE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME TEMPS REMAINING 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...
500 MB HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND EARLY IN THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ON
LABOR DAY. IF THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT...DAYTIME
TEMPS ON MON COULD END UP ABOUT NORMAL. THUS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
WE MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY ON THE COOL-SIDE FOR MON.

BEYOND MON...IT APPEARED THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL RETURN TO COOL AND UNSETTLED. IF THE ECMWF AND GFS
END UP BEING CORRECT...MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WILL ONLY BE
IN THE 50S NEXT WED. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN MODEL WAS WARMER FOR
DAY 7 AND INDICATED HIGHS IN THE 60S. ALL THREE MODELS HAD AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR FORECAST
MIGHT BE ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL NEED TO SEE IF THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF AN UPPER TROF OVER THE CWA LATE IN THE
PERIOD. LEFT THE INHERITED FORECAST UNCHANGED FOR THIS REASON.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN WA THIS
MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WESTERN WA. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS WESTERLY. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW IS BRINGING THE MARINE
LAYER INTO THE INTERIOR AND MOST OF THE LOWLANDS WILL BE IN MVFR TO
IFR RANGE THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
A PSCZ MAY FORM OVER THE KING/SNOHOMISH BORDER THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AS WELL. OTHERWISE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. 33

KSEA...A STRONGER ONSHORE PUSH THIS MORNING WILL BRING MARINE CLOUDS
TO THE TERMINAL WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS
ARE LIGHT SLY. LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VFR
CONDITIONS. 33

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN WA THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL REACH THE AREA ON FRI. HIGHEST WINDS AND
WAVES ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
KUIL-KBLI PRES GRADIENT IS -2.4 MB THIS MORNING...DOWN FROM -3.3 MB
LAST EVENING. GALES VERIFIED LAST NIGHT BUT WINDS WILL EASE BY MID
MORNING AS THE PRES GRADIENT EASES FURTHER. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH THE STRAIT TONIGHT WITH
POST-FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN WA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY FOR THE CENTRAL
     AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 281029
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
329 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY FOR COOLER WEATHER. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND BELOW
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
STRATUS /ALONG WITH SOME FOG/ CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS THIS MORNING. THERE WAS ALSO A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK
PRESENT OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
BLANKET MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS BY MIDMORNING.

MEANWHILE...A WEAK UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
THE MAIN IMPACT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON OUR WEATHER WILL BE
COOLER TEMPS...WITH READINGS AT MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON
PREDICTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A RISK OF LIGHT PRECIP ON THE COAST...OLYMPICS...AND NORTH
CASCADES TODAY.

ANOTHER...BUT STRONGER...UPPER TROF WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND THIS WILL SERVE TO SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPEN THE
MARINE LAYER. THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON FRIDAY...LEADING TO A THREAT OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
COAST...MOUNTAINS...AND WITHIN THE PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE
/PSCZ/. THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER TROF...PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AND
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON FRI.

THE UPPER TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BUT
500 MB HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 570 DAM OVER THE CWA. OVERALL...
SATURDAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN FRI. THUS
ANTICIPATE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME TEMPS REMAINING 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...
500 MB HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND EARLY IN THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ON
LABOR DAY. IF THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT...DAYTIME
TEMPS ON MON COULD END UP ABOUT NORMAL. THUS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
WE MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY ON THE COOL-SIDE FOR MON.

BEYOND MON...IT APPEARED THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL RETURN TO COOL AND UNSETTLED. IF THE ECMWF AND GFS
END UP BEING CORRECT...MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WILL ONLY BE
IN THE 50S NEXT WED. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN MODEL WAS WARMER FOR
DAY 7 AND INDICATED HIGHS IN THE 60S. ALL THREE MODELS HAD AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR FORECAST
MIGHT BE ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL NEED TO SEE IF THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF AN UPPER TROF OVER THE CWA LATE IN THE
PERIOD. LEFT THE INHERITED FORECAST UNCHANGED FOR THIS REASON.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN WA THIS
MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WESTERN WA. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS WESTERLY. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW IS BRINGING THE MARINE
LAYER INTO THE INTERIOR AND MOST OF THE LOWLANDS WILL BE IN MVFR TO
IFR RANGE THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
A PSCZ MAY FORM OVER THE KING/SNOHOMISH BORDER THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AS WELL. OTHERWISE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. 33

KSEA...A STRONGER ONSHORE PUSH THIS MORNING WILL BRING MARINE CLOUDS
TO THE TERMINAL WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS
ARE LIGHT SLY. LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VFR
CONDITIONS. 33

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN WA THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL REACH THE AREA ON FRI. HIGHEST WINDS AND
WAVES ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
KUIL-KBLI PRES GRADIENT IS -2.4 MB THIS MORNING...DOWN FROM -3.3 MB
LAST EVENING. GALES VERIFIED LAST NIGHT BUT WINDS WILL EASE BY MID
MORNING AS THE PRES GRADIENT EASES FURTHER. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH THE STRAIT TONIGHT WITH
POST-FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN WA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY FOR THE CENTRAL
     AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 281029
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
329 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY FOR COOLER WEATHER. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND BELOW
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
STRATUS /ALONG WITH SOME FOG/ CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS THIS MORNING. THERE WAS ALSO A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK
PRESENT OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
BLANKET MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS BY MIDMORNING.

MEANWHILE...A WEAK UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
THE MAIN IMPACT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON OUR WEATHER WILL BE
COOLER TEMPS...WITH READINGS AT MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON
PREDICTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A RISK OF LIGHT PRECIP ON THE COAST...OLYMPICS...AND NORTH
CASCADES TODAY.

ANOTHER...BUT STRONGER...UPPER TROF WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND THIS WILL SERVE TO SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPEN THE
MARINE LAYER. THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON FRIDAY...LEADING TO A THREAT OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
COAST...MOUNTAINS...AND WITHIN THE PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE
/PSCZ/. THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER TROF...PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AND
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON FRI.

THE UPPER TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BUT
500 MB HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 570 DAM OVER THE CWA. OVERALL...
SATURDAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN FRI. THUS
ANTICIPATE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME TEMPS REMAINING 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...
500 MB HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND EARLY IN THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ON
LABOR DAY. IF THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT...DAYTIME
TEMPS ON MON COULD END UP ABOUT NORMAL. THUS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
WE MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY ON THE COOL-SIDE FOR MON.

BEYOND MON...IT APPEARED THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL RETURN TO COOL AND UNSETTLED. IF THE ECMWF AND GFS
END UP BEING CORRECT...MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WILL ONLY BE
IN THE 50S NEXT WED. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN MODEL WAS WARMER FOR
DAY 7 AND INDICATED HIGHS IN THE 60S. ALL THREE MODELS HAD AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR FORECAST
MIGHT BE ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL NEED TO SEE IF THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF AN UPPER TROF OVER THE CWA LATE IN THE
PERIOD. LEFT THE INHERITED FORECAST UNCHANGED FOR THIS REASON.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN WA THIS
MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WESTERN WA. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS WESTERLY. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW IS BRINGING THE MARINE
LAYER INTO THE INTERIOR AND MOST OF THE LOWLANDS WILL BE IN MVFR TO
IFR RANGE THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
A PSCZ MAY FORM OVER THE KING/SNOHOMISH BORDER THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AS WELL. OTHERWISE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. 33

KSEA...A STRONGER ONSHORE PUSH THIS MORNING WILL BRING MARINE CLOUDS
TO THE TERMINAL WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS
ARE LIGHT SLY. LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VFR
CONDITIONS. 33

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN WA THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL REACH THE AREA ON FRI. HIGHEST WINDS AND
WAVES ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
KUIL-KBLI PRES GRADIENT IS -2.4 MB THIS MORNING...DOWN FROM -3.3 MB
LAST EVENING. GALES VERIFIED LAST NIGHT BUT WINDS WILL EASE BY MID
MORNING AS THE PRES GRADIENT EASES FURTHER. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH THE STRAIT TONIGHT WITH
POST-FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN WA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY FOR THE CENTRAL
     AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 281029
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
329 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY FOR COOLER WEATHER. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND BELOW
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
STRATUS /ALONG WITH SOME FOG/ CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS THIS MORNING. THERE WAS ALSO A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK
PRESENT OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
BLANKET MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS BY MIDMORNING.

MEANWHILE...A WEAK UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
THE MAIN IMPACT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON OUR WEATHER WILL BE
COOLER TEMPS...WITH READINGS AT MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON
PREDICTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A RISK OF LIGHT PRECIP ON THE COAST...OLYMPICS...AND NORTH
CASCADES TODAY.

ANOTHER...BUT STRONGER...UPPER TROF WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND THIS WILL SERVE TO SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPEN THE
MARINE LAYER. THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON FRIDAY...LEADING TO A THREAT OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
COAST...MOUNTAINS...AND WITHIN THE PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE
/PSCZ/. THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER TROF...PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AND
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON FRI.

THE UPPER TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BUT
500 MB HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 570 DAM OVER THE CWA. OVERALL...
SATURDAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN FRI. THUS
ANTICIPATE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME TEMPS REMAINING 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...
500 MB HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND EARLY IN THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ON
LABOR DAY. IF THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT...DAYTIME
TEMPS ON MON COULD END UP ABOUT NORMAL. THUS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
WE MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY ON THE COOL-SIDE FOR MON.

BEYOND MON...IT APPEARED THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL RETURN TO COOL AND UNSETTLED. IF THE ECMWF AND GFS
END UP BEING CORRECT...MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WILL ONLY BE
IN THE 50S NEXT WED. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN MODEL WAS WARMER FOR
DAY 7 AND INDICATED HIGHS IN THE 60S. ALL THREE MODELS HAD AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR FORECAST
MIGHT BE ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL NEED TO SEE IF THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF AN UPPER TROF OVER THE CWA LATE IN THE
PERIOD. LEFT THE INHERITED FORECAST UNCHANGED FOR THIS REASON.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN WA THIS
MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WESTERN WA. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS WESTERLY. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW IS BRINGING THE MARINE
LAYER INTO THE INTERIOR AND MOST OF THE LOWLANDS WILL BE IN MVFR TO
IFR RANGE THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
A PSCZ MAY FORM OVER THE KING/SNOHOMISH BORDER THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AS WELL. OTHERWISE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. 33

KSEA...A STRONGER ONSHORE PUSH THIS MORNING WILL BRING MARINE CLOUDS
TO THE TERMINAL WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS
ARE LIGHT SLY. LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VFR
CONDITIONS. 33

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN WA THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL REACH THE AREA ON FRI. HIGHEST WINDS AND
WAVES ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
KUIL-KBLI PRES GRADIENT IS -2.4 MB THIS MORNING...DOWN FROM -3.3 MB
LAST EVENING. GALES VERIFIED LAST NIGHT BUT WINDS WILL EASE BY MID
MORNING AS THE PRES GRADIENT EASES FURTHER. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH THE STRAIT TONIGHT WITH
POST-FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN WA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY FOR THE CENTRAL
     AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KPQR 281022
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
317 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARM
WEATHER WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THU AND FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE N PAC TO ARRIVE...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND
EVEN A THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER RESUMES NEXT
WEEK...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY...A SLOW PATTERN CHANGE OCCURRING OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES...MORE CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PCPN.  THIS MORNING A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER
BRINGING EXTENSIVE STRATUS TO THE COAST AND GAPS LEADING INLAND.
THERE IS SOME FOG BUT NOT QUIET AS THICK AS WED MORNING. STRATUS HAS
WORK UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO KELSO. CURRENT KAST-KPDX GRADIENT
IS DECREASING BELOW 2 MB SO IT MAY JUST MAKE IT TO THE PDX AND
VICINITY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING.TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK TO
REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND WHILE THE COAST TOPS OUT IN THE MID
60S.

WATERVAPOR LOOP SHOWS A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT
MODELS TRACK INTO WESTERN B.C. ON FRIDAY. ONE SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY...MAINLY TO INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW
AND BRING SOME LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS.  AS THE LARGE TROUGH MOVES TO
WESTERN B.C. THE TRAILING END BRUSHES THE PACNW BRINGING LOW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON FRI...MAINLY TO THE NORTH COAST ZONES. THE TROUGH
FURTHER SAGS INTO THE PACNW ON SAT WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
ALONG WITH COOLER WEATHER. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE INTERIOR. WITH THE DEEP MARINE LAYER IN
PLACE...AGAIN EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY FOR THE COAST AND THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  SIDE NOTE - OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO THE AVERAGE
HIGH TEMPERATURES INLAND DROP BELOW 80.

.LONG TERM...ECMWF...GFS AND DGEX TODAY DRASTICALLY CUT BACK ON
MOISTURE OVER OUR CWA FOR THIS WEEKEND...AND REMOVED MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THROUGH MONDAY.  THIS GOES
WITH THE TREND AND CLIMATOLOGY OF TROUGHS FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
TIME OF YEAR WHERE MOISTURE ISN`T SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OVER MOST OF OUR AREA. I LEFT A CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OVER THE OR COASTAL RANGE AND WA...BUT REDUCED POPS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF AND DROPPED POPS
INLAND SOUTH. EARLY NEXT WEEK WEAK RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD IN
INDICATING A WARMING TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...LOW MARINE CLOUDS HAVE RESULTED IN IFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MARINE CLOUDS ARE PUSHING INLAND
WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT KSPB AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN 13 AND 16Z. FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR INLAND BY 18Z...BUT ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE COAST MOST OF THE DAY. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS FOR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE IFR CIGS RETURN THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF SMOKE ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN LANE COUNTY DUE
TO WILDFIRES. STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO PUSH FURTHER INTO THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AFT 13Z...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT MAY FORM SHOULD CLEAR
BY 18Z. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT. TJ

&&

.MARINE...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE NW...BRIEFLY
SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SEAS WILL
COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 7
FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS.
TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 281022
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
317 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARM
WEATHER WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THU AND FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE N PAC TO ARRIVE...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND
EVEN A THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER RESUMES NEXT
WEEK...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY...A SLOW PATTERN CHANGE OCCURRING OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES...MORE CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PCPN.  THIS MORNING A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER
BRINGING EXTENSIVE STRATUS TO THE COAST AND GAPS LEADING INLAND.
THERE IS SOME FOG BUT NOT QUIET AS THICK AS WED MORNING. STRATUS HAS
WORK UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO KELSO. CURRENT KAST-KPDX GRADIENT
IS DECREASING BELOW 2 MB SO IT MAY JUST MAKE IT TO THE PDX AND
VICINITY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING.TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK TO
REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND WHILE THE COAST TOPS OUT IN THE MID
60S.

WATERVAPOR LOOP SHOWS A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT
MODELS TRACK INTO WESTERN B.C. ON FRIDAY. ONE SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY...MAINLY TO INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW
AND BRING SOME LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS.  AS THE LARGE TROUGH MOVES TO
WESTERN B.C. THE TRAILING END BRUSHES THE PACNW BRINGING LOW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON FRI...MAINLY TO THE NORTH COAST ZONES. THE TROUGH
FURTHER SAGS INTO THE PACNW ON SAT WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
ALONG WITH COOLER WEATHER. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE INTERIOR. WITH THE DEEP MARINE LAYER IN
PLACE...AGAIN EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY FOR THE COAST AND THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  SIDE NOTE - OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO THE AVERAGE
HIGH TEMPERATURES INLAND DROP BELOW 80.

.LONG TERM...ECMWF...GFS AND DGEX TODAY DRASTICALLY CUT BACK ON
MOISTURE OVER OUR CWA FOR THIS WEEKEND...AND REMOVED MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THROUGH MONDAY.  THIS GOES
WITH THE TREND AND CLIMATOLOGY OF TROUGHS FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
TIME OF YEAR WHERE MOISTURE ISN`T SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OVER MOST OF OUR AREA. I LEFT A CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OVER THE OR COASTAL RANGE AND WA...BUT REDUCED POPS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF AND DROPPED POPS
INLAND SOUTH. EARLY NEXT WEEK WEAK RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD IN
INDICATING A WARMING TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...LOW MARINE CLOUDS HAVE RESULTED IN IFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MARINE CLOUDS ARE PUSHING INLAND
WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT KSPB AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN 13 AND 16Z. FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR INLAND BY 18Z...BUT ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE COAST MOST OF THE DAY. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS FOR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE IFR CIGS RETURN THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF SMOKE ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN LANE COUNTY DUE
TO WILDFIRES. STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO PUSH FURTHER INTO THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AFT 13Z...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT MAY FORM SHOULD CLEAR
BY 18Z. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT. TJ

&&

.MARINE...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE NW...BRIEFLY
SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SEAS WILL
COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 7
FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS.
TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 281022
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
317 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARM
WEATHER WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THU AND FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE N PAC TO ARRIVE...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND
EVEN A THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER RESUMES NEXT
WEEK...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY...A SLOW PATTERN CHANGE OCCURRING OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES...MORE CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PCPN.  THIS MORNING A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER
BRINGING EXTENSIVE STRATUS TO THE COAST AND GAPS LEADING INLAND.
THERE IS SOME FOG BUT NOT QUIET AS THICK AS WED MORNING. STRATUS HAS
WORK UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO KELSO. CURRENT KAST-KPDX GRADIENT
IS DECREASING BELOW 2 MB SO IT MAY JUST MAKE IT TO THE PDX AND
VICINITY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING.TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK TO
REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND WHILE THE COAST TOPS OUT IN THE MID
60S.

WATERVAPOR LOOP SHOWS A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT
MODELS TRACK INTO WESTERN B.C. ON FRIDAY. ONE SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY...MAINLY TO INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW
AND BRING SOME LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS.  AS THE LARGE TROUGH MOVES TO
WESTERN B.C. THE TRAILING END BRUSHES THE PACNW BRINGING LOW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON FRI...MAINLY TO THE NORTH COAST ZONES. THE TROUGH
FURTHER SAGS INTO THE PACNW ON SAT WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
ALONG WITH COOLER WEATHER. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE INTERIOR. WITH THE DEEP MARINE LAYER IN
PLACE...AGAIN EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY FOR THE COAST AND THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  SIDE NOTE - OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO THE AVERAGE
HIGH TEMPERATURES INLAND DROP BELOW 80.

.LONG TERM...ECMWF...GFS AND DGEX TODAY DRASTICALLY CUT BACK ON
MOISTURE OVER OUR CWA FOR THIS WEEKEND...AND REMOVED MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THROUGH MONDAY.  THIS GOES
WITH THE TREND AND CLIMATOLOGY OF TROUGHS FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
TIME OF YEAR WHERE MOISTURE ISN`T SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OVER MOST OF OUR AREA. I LEFT A CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OVER THE OR COASTAL RANGE AND WA...BUT REDUCED POPS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF AND DROPPED POPS
INLAND SOUTH. EARLY NEXT WEEK WEAK RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD IN
INDICATING A WARMING TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...LOW MARINE CLOUDS HAVE RESULTED IN IFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MARINE CLOUDS ARE PUSHING INLAND
WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT KSPB AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN 13 AND 16Z. FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR INLAND BY 18Z...BUT ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE COAST MOST OF THE DAY. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS FOR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE IFR CIGS RETURN THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF SMOKE ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN LANE COUNTY DUE
TO WILDFIRES. STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO PUSH FURTHER INTO THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AFT 13Z...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT MAY FORM SHOULD CLEAR
BY 18Z. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT. TJ

&&

.MARINE...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE NW...BRIEFLY
SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SEAS WILL
COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 7
FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS.
TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 280918
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
218 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather will begin a cool down today with an increase of
clouds and locally breezy winds. The next storm system will arrive
during the holiday weekend. This will result in breezy to windy
conditions along with an increased chance for mountain showers
along with temperatures dropping below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today, tonight and Friday: Westerly flow aloft prevails across the
Inland Northwest as the strong upper level ridge weakens and get
shunted south. This will also begin the gradually cooldown for the
rest of the week. There will be a few disturbances rolling through
the upper flow that will give the region an increase of cloud
cover and the chance of showers. Currently one weak impulse is
skirting over southern BC with isolated showers and thunderstorms
this morning. There is a small chance of showers may brush near
the Canadian border and north Idaho early this morning as this
impulse slides east. Mid level moisture will linger through the
day as a stronger shortwave swings in from the BC coast inland
and pushes a thinning frontal boundary along the Canadian border.
Surface based instability increases across the northern mountains,
and there is a renewed chance of showers late this afternoon and
early evening. Southwest to westerly surface winds will pick up
this afternoon especially in the lee side valleys and across the
Columbia Basin with local gusts to 25 mph. Expect temperatures
about 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday. Late tonight, the
frontal boundary exits the region and a shortwave ridge builds in.
Winds will taper off in all by the lee side valleys as downslope
flow gets enhanced. On Friday, the next stronger shortwave will
dig a little further south and push a frontal boundary into
Washington. Expect an increase in clouds and a chance of showers
across the Cascades by Friday afternoon. Westerly winds will
become breezy again in the afternoon, as temperatures continue to
cool a few more degrees to the upper 70s to lower 80s, which is
pretty close to seasonal normals. /rfox.

Friday night through Thursday...Models are in good agreement in
depicting a more progressive...somewhat more showery and
definitely cooler and windier pattern from this weekend well into
next week. A series of fast moving and generally weak short waves
will clip through the forecast area Friday night and Saturday...on
or about Monday...and again on or about Wednesday with the
Wednesday trough shaping up to be a stronger system. The
interregnum periods between these waves will feature a northwest
or zonal flow regime.

None of these disturbances appear to be strong enough or dynamic
enough to create any widespread or sure bet precipitation
threats...but all have the potential for scattered showers and
isolated afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains arcing the
Columbia Basin. In the basin itself the main issue will be breezy
and occasionally gusty winds as a persistent westerly gradient
and advection of a cooler maritime air mass sets up and continues
through the period.

Expect a generally breezy Labor Day weekend with temperatures
reaching only into the 70s at most populated low land locations
from Saturday through Monday...and continuing on into the next
work week as this progressive Pacific pattern prevents any
significantly warmer air masses from becoming established before
being eroded by the next wave. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A weak weather disturbance will clip the area on
Thursday. VFR conditions are expected over the aviation area
through 06Z Friday. Locally gusty winds will develop Thursday
afternoon along with isolated showers over the mountains near the
Canadian border. A stray thunderstorm can also not be completely
ruled out.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        83  58  81  53  72  49 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  82  55  81  53  71  47 /   0  10   0  10  10  10
Pullman        82  51  81  49  71  44 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       89  61  88  59  77  54 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       87  53  82  48  75  44 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
Sandpoint      81  51  78  51  69  41 /  10  10   0  10  30  20
Kellogg        79  57  77  52  67  48 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Moses Lake     89  56  85  51  77  48 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      87  62  82  57  76  56 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           86  56  83  54  76  51 /  10   0  10   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 280918
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
218 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather will begin a cool down today with an increase of
clouds and locally breezy winds. The next storm system will arrive
during the holiday weekend. This will result in breezy to windy
conditions along with an increased chance for mountain showers
along with temperatures dropping below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today, tonight and Friday: Westerly flow aloft prevails across the
Inland Northwest as the strong upper level ridge weakens and get
shunted south. This will also begin the gradually cooldown for the
rest of the week. There will be a few disturbances rolling through
the upper flow that will give the region an increase of cloud
cover and the chance of showers. Currently one weak impulse is
skirting over southern BC with isolated showers and thunderstorms
this morning. There is a small chance of showers may brush near
the Canadian border and north Idaho early this morning as this
impulse slides east. Mid level moisture will linger through the
day as a stronger shortwave swings in from the BC coast inland
and pushes a thinning frontal boundary along the Canadian border.
Surface based instability increases across the northern mountains,
and there is a renewed chance of showers late this afternoon and
early evening. Southwest to westerly surface winds will pick up
this afternoon especially in the lee side valleys and across the
Columbia Basin with local gusts to 25 mph. Expect temperatures
about 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday. Late tonight, the
frontal boundary exits the region and a shortwave ridge builds in.
Winds will taper off in all by the lee side valleys as downslope
flow gets enhanced. On Friday, the next stronger shortwave will
dig a little further south and push a frontal boundary into
Washington. Expect an increase in clouds and a chance of showers
across the Cascades by Friday afternoon. Westerly winds will
become breezy again in the afternoon, as temperatures continue to
cool a few more degrees to the upper 70s to lower 80s, which is
pretty close to seasonal normals. /rfox.

Friday night through Thursday...Models are in good agreement in
depicting a more progressive...somewhat more showery and
definitely cooler and windier pattern from this weekend well into
next week. A series of fast moving and generally weak short waves
will clip through the forecast area Friday night and Saturday...on
or about Monday...and again on or about Wednesday with the
Wednesday trough shaping up to be a stronger system. The
interregnum periods between these waves will feature a northwest
or zonal flow regime.

None of these disturbances appear to be strong enough or dynamic
enough to create any widespread or sure bet precipitation
threats...but all have the potential for scattered showers and
isolated afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains arcing the
Columbia Basin. In the basin itself the main issue will be breezy
and occasionally gusty winds as a persistent westerly gradient
and advection of a cooler maritime air mass sets up and continues
through the period.

Expect a generally breezy Labor Day weekend with temperatures
reaching only into the 70s at most populated low land locations
from Saturday through Monday...and continuing on into the next
work week as this progressive Pacific pattern prevents any
significantly warmer air masses from becoming established before
being eroded by the next wave. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A weak weather disturbance will clip the area on
Thursday. VFR conditions are expected over the aviation area
through 06Z Friday. Locally gusty winds will develop Thursday
afternoon along with isolated showers over the mountains near the
Canadian border. A stray thunderstorm can also not be completely
ruled out.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        83  58  81  53  72  49 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  82  55  81  53  71  47 /   0  10   0  10  10  10
Pullman        82  51  81  49  71  44 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       89  61  88  59  77  54 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       87  53  82  48  75  44 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
Sandpoint      81  51  78  51  69  41 /  10  10   0  10  30  20
Kellogg        79  57  77  52  67  48 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Moses Lake     89  56  85  51  77  48 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      87  62  82  57  76  56 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           86  56  83  54  76  51 /  10   0  10   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 280917
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
217 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER WILL BEGIN A COOL DOWN TODAY WITH AN INCREASE OF
CLOUDS AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY, TONIGHT AND FRIDAY: WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
INLAND NORTHWEST AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AND GET
SHUNTED SOUTH. THIS WILL ALSO BEGIN THE GRADUALLY COOLDOWN FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A FEW DISTURBANCES ROLLING THROUGH
THE UPPER FLOW THAT WILL GIVE THE REGION AN INCREASE OF CLOUD
COVER AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. CURRENTLY ONE WEAK IMPULSE IS
SKIRTING OVER SOUTHERN BC WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY BRUSH NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER AND NORTH IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING AS THIS
IMPULSE SLIDES EAST. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE SWINGS IN FROM THE BC COAST INLAND
AND PUSHES A THINNING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS,
AND THERE IS A RENEWED CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP
THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE SIDE VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE
COLUMBIA BASIN WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. LATE TONIGHT, THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITS THE REGION AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN.
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF IN ALL BY THE LEE SIDE VALLEYS AS DOWNSLOPE
FLOW GETS ENHANCED. ON FRIDAY, THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL
DIG A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
WASHINGTON. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CASCADES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON, AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
COOL A FEW MORE DEGREES TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, WHICH IS
PRETTY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. /RFOX.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DEPICTING A MORE PROGRESSIVE...SOMEWHAT MORE SHOWERY AND
DEFINITELY COOLER AND WINDIER PATTERN FROM THIS WEEKEND WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF FAST MOVING AND GENERALLY WEAK SHORT WAVES
WILL CLIP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ON
OR ABOUT MONDAY...AND AGAIN ON OR ABOUT WEDNESDAY WITH THE
WEDNESDAY TROUGH SHAPING UP TO BE A STRONGER SYSTEM. THE
INTERREGNUM PERIODS BETWEEN THESE WAVES WILL FEATURE A NORTHWEST
OR ZONAL FLOW REGIME.

NONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH OR DYNAMIC
ENOUGH TO CREATE ANY WIDESPREAD OR SURE BET PRECIPITATION
THREATS...BUT ALL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ARCING THE
COLUMBIA BASIN. IN THE BASIN ITSELF THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE BREEZY
AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS AS A PERSISTENT WESTERLY GRADIENT
AND ADVECTION OF A COOLER MARITIME AIR MASS SETS UP AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT A GENERALLY BREEZY LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING ONLY INTO THE 70S AT MOST POPULATED LOW LAND LOCATIONS
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AND CONTINUING ON INTO THE NEXT
WORK WEEK AS THIS PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC PATTERN PREVENTS ANY
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR MASSES FROM BECOMING ESTABLISHED BEFORE
BEING ERODED BY THE NEXT WAVE. /FUGAZZI

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AVIATION AREA
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CAN ALSO NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        83  58  81  53  72  49 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
COEUR D`ALENE  82  55  81  53  71  47 /   0  10   0  10  10  10
PULLMAN        82  51  81  49  71  44 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
LEWISTON       89  61  88  59  77  54 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
COLVILLE       87  53  82  48  75  44 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
SANDPOINT      81  51  78  51  69  41 /  10  10   0  10  30  20
KELLOGG        79  57  77  52  67  48 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
MOSES LAKE     89  56  85  51  77  48 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
WENATCHEE      87  62  82  57  76  56 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
OMAK           86  56  83  54  76  51 /  10   0  10   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 280917
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
217 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER WILL BEGIN A COOL DOWN TODAY WITH AN INCREASE OF
CLOUDS AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY, TONIGHT AND FRIDAY: WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
INLAND NORTHWEST AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AND GET
SHUNTED SOUTH. THIS WILL ALSO BEGIN THE GRADUALLY COOLDOWN FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A FEW DISTURBANCES ROLLING THROUGH
THE UPPER FLOW THAT WILL GIVE THE REGION AN INCREASE OF CLOUD
COVER AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. CURRENTLY ONE WEAK IMPULSE IS
SKIRTING OVER SOUTHERN BC WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY BRUSH NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER AND NORTH IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING AS THIS
IMPULSE SLIDES EAST. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE SWINGS IN FROM THE BC COAST INLAND
AND PUSHES A THINNING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS,
AND THERE IS A RENEWED CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP
THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE SIDE VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE
COLUMBIA BASIN WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. LATE TONIGHT, THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITS THE REGION AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN.
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF IN ALL BY THE LEE SIDE VALLEYS AS DOWNSLOPE
FLOW GETS ENHANCED. ON FRIDAY, THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL
DIG A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
WASHINGTON. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CASCADES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON, AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
COOL A FEW MORE DEGREES TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, WHICH IS
PRETTY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. /RFOX.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DEPICTING A MORE PROGRESSIVE...SOMEWHAT MORE SHOWERY AND
DEFINITELY COOLER AND WINDIER PATTERN FROM THIS WEEKEND WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF FAST MOVING AND GENERALLY WEAK SHORT WAVES
WILL CLIP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ON
OR ABOUT MONDAY...AND AGAIN ON OR ABOUT WEDNESDAY WITH THE
WEDNESDAY TROUGH SHAPING UP TO BE A STRONGER SYSTEM. THE
INTERREGNUM PERIODS BETWEEN THESE WAVES WILL FEATURE A NORTHWEST
OR ZONAL FLOW REGIME.

NONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH OR DYNAMIC
ENOUGH TO CREATE ANY WIDESPREAD OR SURE BET PRECIPITATION
THREATS...BUT ALL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ARCING THE
COLUMBIA BASIN. IN THE BASIN ITSELF THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE BREEZY
AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS AS A PERSISTENT WESTERLY GRADIENT
AND ADVECTION OF A COOLER MARITIME AIR MASS SETS UP AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT A GENERALLY BREEZY LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING ONLY INTO THE 70S AT MOST POPULATED LOW LAND LOCATIONS
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AND CONTINUING ON INTO THE NEXT
WORK WEEK AS THIS PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC PATTERN PREVENTS ANY
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR MASSES FROM BECOMING ESTABLISHED BEFORE
BEING ERODED BY THE NEXT WAVE. /FUGAZZI

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AVIATION AREA
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CAN ALSO NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        83  58  81  53  72  49 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
COEUR D`ALENE  82  55  81  53  71  47 /   0  10   0  10  10  10
PULLMAN        82  51  81  49  71  44 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
LEWISTON       89  61  88  59  77  54 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
COLVILLE       87  53  82  48  75  44 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
SANDPOINT      81  51  78  51  69  41 /  10  10   0  10  30  20
KELLOGG        79  57  77  52  67  48 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
MOSES LAKE     89  56  85  51  77  48 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
WENATCHEE      87  62  82  57  76  56 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
OMAK           86  56  83  54  76  51 /  10   0  10   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 280917
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
217 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER WILL BEGIN A COOL DOWN TODAY WITH AN INCREASE OF
CLOUDS AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY, TONIGHT AND FRIDAY: WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
INLAND NORTHWEST AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AND GET
SHUNTED SOUTH. THIS WILL ALSO BEGIN THE GRADUALLY COOLDOWN FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A FEW DISTURBANCES ROLLING THROUGH
THE UPPER FLOW THAT WILL GIVE THE REGION AN INCREASE OF CLOUD
COVER AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. CURRENTLY ONE WEAK IMPULSE IS
SKIRTING OVER SOUTHERN BC WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY BRUSH NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER AND NORTH IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING AS THIS
IMPULSE SLIDES EAST. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE SWINGS IN FROM THE BC COAST INLAND
AND PUSHES A THINNING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS,
AND THERE IS A RENEWED CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP
THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE SIDE VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE
COLUMBIA BASIN WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. LATE TONIGHT, THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITS THE REGION AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN.
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF IN ALL BY THE LEE SIDE VALLEYS AS DOWNSLOPE
FLOW GETS ENHANCED. ON FRIDAY, THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL
DIG A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
WASHINGTON. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CASCADES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON, AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
COOL A FEW MORE DEGREES TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, WHICH IS
PRETTY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. /RFOX.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DEPICTING A MORE PROGRESSIVE...SOMEWHAT MORE SHOWERY AND
DEFINITELY COOLER AND WINDIER PATTERN FROM THIS WEEKEND WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF FAST MOVING AND GENERALLY WEAK SHORT WAVES
WILL CLIP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ON
OR ABOUT MONDAY...AND AGAIN ON OR ABOUT WEDNESDAY WITH THE
WEDNESDAY TROUGH SHAPING UP TO BE A STRONGER SYSTEM. THE
INTERREGNUM PERIODS BETWEEN THESE WAVES WILL FEATURE A NORTHWEST
OR ZONAL FLOW REGIME.

NONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH OR DYNAMIC
ENOUGH TO CREATE ANY WIDESPREAD OR SURE BET PRECIPITATION
THREATS...BUT ALL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ARCING THE
COLUMBIA BASIN. IN THE BASIN ITSELF THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE BREEZY
AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS AS A PERSISTENT WESTERLY GRADIENT
AND ADVECTION OF A COOLER MARITIME AIR MASS SETS UP AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT A GENERALLY BREEZY LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING ONLY INTO THE 70S AT MOST POPULATED LOW LAND LOCATIONS
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AND CONTINUING ON INTO THE NEXT
WORK WEEK AS THIS PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC PATTERN PREVENTS ANY
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR MASSES FROM BECOMING ESTABLISHED BEFORE
BEING ERODED BY THE NEXT WAVE. /FUGAZZI

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AVIATION AREA
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CAN ALSO NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        83  58  81  53  72  49 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
COEUR D`ALENE  82  55  81  53  71  47 /   0  10   0  10  10  10
PULLMAN        82  51  81  49  71  44 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
LEWISTON       89  61  88  59  77  54 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
COLVILLE       87  53  82  48  75  44 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
SANDPOINT      81  51  78  51  69  41 /  10  10   0  10  30  20
KELLOGG        79  57  77  52  67  48 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
MOSES LAKE     89  56  85  51  77  48 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
WENATCHEE      87  62  82  57  76  56 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
OMAK           86  56  83  54  76  51 /  10   0  10   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 280917
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
217 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER WILL BEGIN A COOL DOWN TODAY WITH AN INCREASE OF
CLOUDS AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY, TONIGHT AND FRIDAY: WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
INLAND NORTHWEST AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AND GET
SHUNTED SOUTH. THIS WILL ALSO BEGIN THE GRADUALLY COOLDOWN FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A FEW DISTURBANCES ROLLING THROUGH
THE UPPER FLOW THAT WILL GIVE THE REGION AN INCREASE OF CLOUD
COVER AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. CURRENTLY ONE WEAK IMPULSE IS
SKIRTING OVER SOUTHERN BC WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY BRUSH NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER AND NORTH IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING AS THIS
IMPULSE SLIDES EAST. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE SWINGS IN FROM THE BC COAST INLAND
AND PUSHES A THINNING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS,
AND THERE IS A RENEWED CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP
THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE SIDE VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE
COLUMBIA BASIN WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. LATE TONIGHT, THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITS THE REGION AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN.
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF IN ALL BY THE LEE SIDE VALLEYS AS DOWNSLOPE
FLOW GETS ENHANCED. ON FRIDAY, THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL
DIG A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
WASHINGTON. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CASCADES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON, AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
COOL A FEW MORE DEGREES TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, WHICH IS
PRETTY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. /RFOX.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DEPICTING A MORE PROGRESSIVE...SOMEWHAT MORE SHOWERY AND
DEFINITELY COOLER AND WINDIER PATTERN FROM THIS WEEKEND WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF FAST MOVING AND GENERALLY WEAK SHORT WAVES
WILL CLIP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ON
OR ABOUT MONDAY...AND AGAIN ON OR ABOUT WEDNESDAY WITH THE
WEDNESDAY TROUGH SHAPING UP TO BE A STRONGER SYSTEM. THE
INTERREGNUM PERIODS BETWEEN THESE WAVES WILL FEATURE A NORTHWEST
OR ZONAL FLOW REGIME.

NONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH OR DYNAMIC
ENOUGH TO CREATE ANY WIDESPREAD OR SURE BET PRECIPITATION
THREATS...BUT ALL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ARCING THE
COLUMBIA BASIN. IN THE BASIN ITSELF THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE BREEZY
AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS AS A PERSISTENT WESTERLY GRADIENT
AND ADVECTION OF A COOLER MARITIME AIR MASS SETS UP AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT A GENERALLY BREEZY LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING ONLY INTO THE 70S AT MOST POPULATED LOW LAND LOCATIONS
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AND CONTINUING ON INTO THE NEXT
WORK WEEK AS THIS PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC PATTERN PREVENTS ANY
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR MASSES FROM BECOMING ESTABLISHED BEFORE
BEING ERODED BY THE NEXT WAVE. /FUGAZZI

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AVIATION AREA
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CAN ALSO NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        83  58  81  53  72  49 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
COEUR D`ALENE  82  55  81  53  71  47 /   0  10   0  10  10  10
PULLMAN        82  51  81  49  71  44 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
LEWISTON       89  61  88  59  77  54 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
COLVILLE       87  53  82  48  75  44 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
SANDPOINT      81  51  78  51  69  41 /  10  10   0  10  30  20
KELLOGG        79  57  77  52  67  48 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
MOSES LAKE     89  56  85  51  77  48 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
WENATCHEE      87  62  82  57  76  56 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
OMAK           86  56  83  54  76  51 /  10   0  10   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

$$




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