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000
FXUS66 KOTX 021756
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1056 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Another hot and smokey day will be on tap today with triple digit
heat over much of central and southeast Washington. The ongoing
drought combined with high heat and low humidity will contribute
to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest. Temperatures
on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an increase in
clouds. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures and locally breezy
winds are expected Tuesday through Friday following the arrival
of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today: Low visibilities...below a mile...are still a
persistent issue for the Lake Chelan and adjacent towns, and is
not expected to change much the next 24 hours. We increased cloud
cover some...mainly for the E Slopes of the Cascades as the high-
based convective ceilings currently over Nrn Oregon moves north.
There may be brief isolated showers for the Cascades late
afternoon, but the better chance is this evening. Thunder is not
expected until Monday for the Cascades associated with a weak wave
passing northeast across the area. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Areas of smoke will not be a big concern, though vsbys
may tempo-down to near MVFR briefly. Otherwise the smoke will be
either. Mid and high level clouds will increase...with winds
remaining around 10kt this afternoon. Local higher gusts are
possible. Downslope gap winds will increase after 02z especially
in KEAT where speeds will reach around 15kt. bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  95  66  87  59 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  59  97  61  87  56 /   0   0   0  20  10  10
Pullman        98  56  93  58  86  53 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      104  68  99  68  93  63 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Colville      100  57  98  59  89  55 /   0   0  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      96  52  97  54  83  52 /   0   0   0  30  20  10
Kellogg        96  58  96  60  84  54 /   0   0   0  30  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  97  62  93  59 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee     101  73  97  68  92  65 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Omak          100  68  97  63  92  59 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 021756
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1056 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Another hot and smokey day will be on tap today with triple digit
heat over much of central and southeast Washington. The ongoing
drought combined with high heat and low humidity will contribute
to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest. Temperatures
on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an increase in
clouds. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures and locally breezy
winds are expected Tuesday through Friday following the arrival
of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today: Low visibilities...below a mile...are still a
persistent issue for the Lake Chelan and adjacent towns, and is
not expected to change much the next 24 hours. We increased cloud
cover some...mainly for the E Slopes of the Cascades as the high-
based convective ceilings currently over Nrn Oregon moves north.
There may be brief isolated showers for the Cascades late
afternoon, but the better chance is this evening. Thunder is not
expected until Monday for the Cascades associated with a weak wave
passing northeast across the area. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Areas of smoke will not be a big concern, though vsbys
may tempo-down to near MVFR briefly. Otherwise the smoke will be
either. Mid and high level clouds will increase...with winds
remaining around 10kt this afternoon. Local higher gusts are
possible. Downslope gap winds will increase after 02z especially
in KEAT where speeds will reach around 15kt. bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  95  66  87  59 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  59  97  61  87  56 /   0   0   0  20  10  10
Pullman        98  56  93  58  86  53 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      104  68  99  68  93  63 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Colville      100  57  98  59  89  55 /   0   0  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      96  52  97  54  83  52 /   0   0   0  30  20  10
Kellogg        96  58  96  60  84  54 /   0   0   0  30  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  97  62  93  59 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee     101  73  97  68  92  65 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Omak          100  68  97  63  92  59 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 021756
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1056 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Another hot and smokey day will be on tap today with triple digit
heat over much of central and southeast Washington. The ongoing
drought combined with high heat and low humidity will contribute
to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest. Temperatures
on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an increase in
clouds. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures and locally breezy
winds are expected Tuesday through Friday following the arrival
of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today: Low visibilities...below a mile...are still a
persistent issue for the Lake Chelan and adjacent towns, and is
not expected to change much the next 24 hours. We increased cloud
cover some...mainly for the E Slopes of the Cascades as the high-
based convective ceilings currently over Nrn Oregon moves north.
There may be brief isolated showers for the Cascades late
afternoon, but the better chance is this evening. Thunder is not
expected until Monday for the Cascades associated with a weak wave
passing northeast across the area. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Areas of smoke will not be a big concern, though vsbys
may tempo-down to near MVFR briefly. Otherwise the smoke will be
either. Mid and high level clouds will increase...with winds
remaining around 10kt this afternoon. Local higher gusts are
possible. Downslope gap winds will increase after 02z especially
in KEAT where speeds will reach around 15kt. bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  95  66  87  59 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  59  97  61  87  56 /   0   0   0  20  10  10
Pullman        98  56  93  58  86  53 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      104  68  99  68  93  63 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Colville      100  57  98  59  89  55 /   0   0  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      96  52  97  54  83  52 /   0   0   0  30  20  10
Kellogg        96  58  96  60  84  54 /   0   0   0  30  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  97  62  93  59 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee     101  73  97  68  92  65 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Omak          100  68  97  63  92  59 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 021756
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1056 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Another hot and smokey day will be on tap today with triple digit
heat over much of central and southeast Washington. The ongoing
drought combined with high heat and low humidity will contribute
to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest. Temperatures
on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an increase in
clouds. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures and locally breezy
winds are expected Tuesday through Friday following the arrival
of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today: Low visibilities...below a mile...are still a
persistent issue for the Lake Chelan and adjacent towns, and is
not expected to change much the next 24 hours. We increased cloud
cover some...mainly for the E Slopes of the Cascades as the high-
based convective ceilings currently over Nrn Oregon moves north.
There may be brief isolated showers for the Cascades late
afternoon, but the better chance is this evening. Thunder is not
expected until Monday for the Cascades associated with a weak wave
passing northeast across the area. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Areas of smoke will not be a big concern, though vsbys
may tempo-down to near MVFR briefly. Otherwise the smoke will be
either. Mid and high level clouds will increase...with winds
remaining around 10kt this afternoon. Local higher gusts are
possible. Downslope gap winds will increase after 02z especially
in KEAT where speeds will reach around 15kt. bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  95  66  87  59 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  59  97  61  87  56 /   0   0   0  20  10  10
Pullman        98  56  93  58  86  53 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      104  68  99  68  93  63 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Colville      100  57  98  59  89  55 /   0   0  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      96  52  97  54  83  52 /   0   0   0  30  20  10
Kellogg        96  58  96  60  84  54 /   0   0   0  30  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  97  62  93  59 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee     101  73  97  68  92  65 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Omak          100  68  97  63  92  59 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

&&

$$



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000
FXUS66 KPQR 021718 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1018 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION MARINE AND W/W/A SECTIONS

.SYNOPSIS...AS A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST TODAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
CONTINUE STEERING MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWARD OVER
WESTERN OREGON AND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TODAY INTO MONDAY... FOR
A THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND HAVE AN INCREASING IMPACT
OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD FOR COOLER TEMPS AND MORE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AS SUSPECTED SATURDAY...A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS AND DEBRIS HAVE ALREADY SPREAD OVER NORTHWEST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING...AND EVEN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LIGHTNING LATE SATURDAY WAS MAINLY NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS...THEN SHIFTED TO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
AND THIS MORNING.

THE AREA OF MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND OVER THE NORTH
COASTAL MOUNTAINS INTO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WITH SOME
SHOWERS. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LIGHTNING WITH THIS AREA IN A WHILE. THIS
AREA OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
WASHINGTON DURING THE MID DAY PERIOD AND SLOWLY OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE MODELS THIS MORNING SHOWED A WEAK UPPER JET SEGMENT WITH
THIS MOISTURE THAT MOVES NORTH OUT OF OUR AREA LATER TODAY.

ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE IS MOVING NORTH FROM SOUTHWEST OREGON INTO
LANE COUNTY THIS MORNING...AND DID PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING AN HOUR OR
TWO AGO AS IT WAS CROSSING INTO LANE COUNTY FROM DOUGLAS COUNTY. THIS
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH THROUGH NORTHWEST OREGON AND
EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER JET SEGMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE PIVOTING THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THIS TAKES SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACK TO THE COAST AND
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AGAIN. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA AS THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED NORTH. CANNOT REALLY RULE
OUT THUNDER ANYWHERE AS WELL. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE OF THUNDER IN
THE SOUTH PART OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING SPREADING NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE SHORT WAVE AND MOISTURE AREA WILL STILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY MONDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL BE SAGGING SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TURN THE
UPPER FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...AND LIMIT THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER MONDAY TO OUR SOUTHERN CASCADE AREAS AND
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CREST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTH WITH MORE ENERGY IN WASHINGTON BY TUESDAY...WITH MORE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON.
AGAIN...THE MAIN THREAT OF THUNDER FOR OUR AREA WILL BE NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS LATER TUESDAY.

THE MARINE LAYER IS AGAIN SHALLOW AND NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING.
WILL CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS TODAY...
THOUGH THE CLOUDS MAY AFFECT HOW WARM WE GET TODAY. HUMIDITIES WILL
BE SLOWLY RISING TODAY AS WELL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BEGIN PUSHING
INTO THE COASTAL GAPS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BUT INLAND
COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY. INLAND TEMPS WILL BE LOWER MONDAY DUE TO THE
GRADUAL COOLING OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT. EXPECT BETTER INLAND COVERAGE
OF LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ESPECIALLY NORTH. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THE GENERAL TREND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER
WEATHER. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRUSHING BY
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY...BUT KEEPS MOST OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES FOR LATE TUESDAY DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE USED A BROAD
BRUSH APPROACH FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON CASCADES. /64
&&

.AVIATION...BROAD AREA OF INSTABILITY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MOSTLY MID LEVEL SHOWERS AT THIS POINT
ALTHOUGH THERE IS THUNDERSTORM ACTION FROM ABOUT KRBG TO THE SOUTH
AT THIS HOUR. EXPECT THE GENERAL THREAT FOR THUNDER TO MOVE NORTH
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT
WAVE MOVING NORTH ACTS AS A LIFTING TRIGGER. IN GENERAL...AM
EXPECTING ISOLATED COVERAGE WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THOSE
SINGLE STORMS WILL SPECIFICALLY DEVELOP AND THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
TAF INCLUSION AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND AS
CONDITIONS EVOLVE. REGARDLESS...COULD GET SOME OUTFLOW GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF 35 KTS FROM THE STORMS
THAT DO FORM. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH LOW CLOUD FROM THESE SHOWERS OR
STORMS AND NOT ANY VSBY REDUCTIONS EITHER.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE STRATUS IMPACTS AT THE COAST TODAY AND A BIT
LONGER THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. STILL SEEMS LIKE IT WILL BURN
BACK OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL HAVE A HARD TIME FOLLOWING
VIA SATELLITE AS THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OBSCURING.
THUS WILL HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE ACTUAL EXTENT TODAY. HAVE NO
REASON TO DOUBT LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TONIGHT. /JBONK

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM. BEST TIMING
WILL BE FROM 23Z THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...MAIN CHANGE FOR TODAY IS THE INTRODUCTION OF SHOWERS AND
A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DONT FEEL LIKE THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF THUNDER COVERAGE BUT COULD SEE SOME OUTFLOW
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS.

OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR SUNDAY WITH
N WINDS OVER THE WATERS. SPEEDS HAVE DRAMATICALLY DROPPED OFF THIS
MORNING AS EXPECTED. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND GUSTS IN THE 20
TO 25 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER MODELS BUT AM HAVING
SOME DOUBTS AS THEY APPEAR TO BE MORE THERMALLY DRIVEN FROM
HEATING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. CURRENT CLOUD COVER OVER SW
OREGON AND NRN CALIFORNIA MAY INHIBIT THE STRENGTH OF THE HEATING.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR NOW AND KEEP THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ADVISORY FOR WINDS IN PLACE.

MEANWHILE...THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE GENERATING A STEEP
FRESH SWELL 5 TO 6 FEET AT 7 TO 9 SECONDS. AM SEEING OCCASIONAL
SQUARE SEAS OUT AT BUOY 89 WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LONG PERIOD SW
SWELL. IT APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED AND SPORADIC WITH FOCUS TOWARD
THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF OUR BORDERS SINCE THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY
INDICATION OF SQUARE SEAS SINCE LATE LAST EVENING. AS
SUCH...DROPPED THE ADVISORY FOR SEAS. STILL FAIRLY STEEP
NONETHELESS. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND
     METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER
     HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ
     COUNTY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 021718 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1018 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION MARINE AND W/W/A SECTIONS

.SYNOPSIS...AS A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST TODAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
CONTINUE STEERING MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWARD OVER
WESTERN OREGON AND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TODAY INTO MONDAY... FOR
A THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND HAVE AN INCREASING IMPACT
OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD FOR COOLER TEMPS AND MORE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AS SUSPECTED SATURDAY...A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS AND DEBRIS HAVE ALREADY SPREAD OVER NORTHWEST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING...AND EVEN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LIGHTNING LATE SATURDAY WAS MAINLY NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS...THEN SHIFTED TO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
AND THIS MORNING.

THE AREA OF MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND OVER THE NORTH
COASTAL MOUNTAINS INTO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WITH SOME
SHOWERS. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LIGHTNING WITH THIS AREA IN A WHILE. THIS
AREA OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
WASHINGTON DURING THE MID DAY PERIOD AND SLOWLY OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE MODELS THIS MORNING SHOWED A WEAK UPPER JET SEGMENT WITH
THIS MOISTURE THAT MOVES NORTH OUT OF OUR AREA LATER TODAY.

ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE IS MOVING NORTH FROM SOUTHWEST OREGON INTO
LANE COUNTY THIS MORNING...AND DID PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING AN HOUR OR
TWO AGO AS IT WAS CROSSING INTO LANE COUNTY FROM DOUGLAS COUNTY. THIS
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH THROUGH NORTHWEST OREGON AND
EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER JET SEGMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE PIVOTING THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THIS TAKES SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACK TO THE COAST AND
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AGAIN. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA AS THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED NORTH. CANNOT REALLY RULE
OUT THUNDER ANYWHERE AS WELL. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE OF THUNDER IN
THE SOUTH PART OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING SPREADING NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE SHORT WAVE AND MOISTURE AREA WILL STILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY MONDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL BE SAGGING SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TURN THE
UPPER FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...AND LIMIT THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER MONDAY TO OUR SOUTHERN CASCADE AREAS AND
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CREST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTH WITH MORE ENERGY IN WASHINGTON BY TUESDAY...WITH MORE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON.
AGAIN...THE MAIN THREAT OF THUNDER FOR OUR AREA WILL BE NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS LATER TUESDAY.

THE MARINE LAYER IS AGAIN SHALLOW AND NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING.
WILL CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS TODAY...
THOUGH THE CLOUDS MAY AFFECT HOW WARM WE GET TODAY. HUMIDITIES WILL
BE SLOWLY RISING TODAY AS WELL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BEGIN PUSHING
INTO THE COASTAL GAPS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BUT INLAND
COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY. INLAND TEMPS WILL BE LOWER MONDAY DUE TO THE
GRADUAL COOLING OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT. EXPECT BETTER INLAND COVERAGE
OF LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ESPECIALLY NORTH. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THE GENERAL TREND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER
WEATHER. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRUSHING BY
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY...BUT KEEPS MOST OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES FOR LATE TUESDAY DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE USED A BROAD
BRUSH APPROACH FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON CASCADES. /64
&&

.AVIATION...BROAD AREA OF INSTABILITY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MOSTLY MID LEVEL SHOWERS AT THIS POINT
ALTHOUGH THERE IS THUNDERSTORM ACTION FROM ABOUT KRBG TO THE SOUTH
AT THIS HOUR. EXPECT THE GENERAL THREAT FOR THUNDER TO MOVE NORTH
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT
WAVE MOVING NORTH ACTS AS A LIFTING TRIGGER. IN GENERAL...AM
EXPECTING ISOLATED COVERAGE WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THOSE
SINGLE STORMS WILL SPECIFICALLY DEVELOP AND THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
TAF INCLUSION AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND AS
CONDITIONS EVOLVE. REGARDLESS...COULD GET SOME OUTFLOW GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF 35 KTS FROM THE STORMS
THAT DO FORM. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH LOW CLOUD FROM THESE SHOWERS OR
STORMS AND NOT ANY VSBY REDUCTIONS EITHER.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE STRATUS IMPACTS AT THE COAST TODAY AND A BIT
LONGER THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. STILL SEEMS LIKE IT WILL BURN
BACK OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL HAVE A HARD TIME FOLLOWING
VIA SATELLITE AS THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OBSCURING.
THUS WILL HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE ACTUAL EXTENT TODAY. HAVE NO
REASON TO DOUBT LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TONIGHT. /JBONK

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM. BEST TIMING
WILL BE FROM 23Z THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...MAIN CHANGE FOR TODAY IS THE INTRODUCTION OF SHOWERS AND
A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DONT FEEL LIKE THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF THUNDER COVERAGE BUT COULD SEE SOME OUTFLOW
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS.

OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR SUNDAY WITH
N WINDS OVER THE WATERS. SPEEDS HAVE DRAMATICALLY DROPPED OFF THIS
MORNING AS EXPECTED. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND GUSTS IN THE 20
TO 25 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER MODELS BUT AM HAVING
SOME DOUBTS AS THEY APPEAR TO BE MORE THERMALLY DRIVEN FROM
HEATING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. CURRENT CLOUD COVER OVER SW
OREGON AND NRN CALIFORNIA MAY INHIBIT THE STRENGTH OF THE HEATING.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR NOW AND KEEP THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ADVISORY FOR WINDS IN PLACE.

MEANWHILE...THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE GENERATING A STEEP
FRESH SWELL 5 TO 6 FEET AT 7 TO 9 SECONDS. AM SEEING OCCASIONAL
SQUARE SEAS OUT AT BUOY 89 WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LONG PERIOD SW
SWELL. IT APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED AND SPORADIC WITH FOCUS TOWARD
THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF OUR BORDERS SINCE THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY
INDICATION OF SQUARE SEAS SINCE LATE LAST EVENING. AS
SUCH...DROPPED THE ADVISORY FOR SEAS. STILL FAIRLY STEEP
NONETHELESS. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND
     METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER
     HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ
     COUNTY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 021718 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1018 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION MARINE AND W/W/A SECTIONS

.SYNOPSIS...AS A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST TODAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
CONTINUE STEERING MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWARD OVER
WESTERN OREGON AND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TODAY INTO MONDAY... FOR
A THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND HAVE AN INCREASING IMPACT
OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD FOR COOLER TEMPS AND MORE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AS SUSPECTED SATURDAY...A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS AND DEBRIS HAVE ALREADY SPREAD OVER NORTHWEST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING...AND EVEN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LIGHTNING LATE SATURDAY WAS MAINLY NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS...THEN SHIFTED TO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
AND THIS MORNING.

THE AREA OF MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND OVER THE NORTH
COASTAL MOUNTAINS INTO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WITH SOME
SHOWERS. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LIGHTNING WITH THIS AREA IN A WHILE. THIS
AREA OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
WASHINGTON DURING THE MID DAY PERIOD AND SLOWLY OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE MODELS THIS MORNING SHOWED A WEAK UPPER JET SEGMENT WITH
THIS MOISTURE THAT MOVES NORTH OUT OF OUR AREA LATER TODAY.

ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE IS MOVING NORTH FROM SOUTHWEST OREGON INTO
LANE COUNTY THIS MORNING...AND DID PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING AN HOUR OR
TWO AGO AS IT WAS CROSSING INTO LANE COUNTY FROM DOUGLAS COUNTY. THIS
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH THROUGH NORTHWEST OREGON AND
EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER JET SEGMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE PIVOTING THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THIS TAKES SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACK TO THE COAST AND
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AGAIN. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA AS THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED NORTH. CANNOT REALLY RULE
OUT THUNDER ANYWHERE AS WELL. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE OF THUNDER IN
THE SOUTH PART OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING SPREADING NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE SHORT WAVE AND MOISTURE AREA WILL STILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY MONDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL BE SAGGING SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TURN THE
UPPER FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...AND LIMIT THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER MONDAY TO OUR SOUTHERN CASCADE AREAS AND
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CREST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTH WITH MORE ENERGY IN WASHINGTON BY TUESDAY...WITH MORE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON.
AGAIN...THE MAIN THREAT OF THUNDER FOR OUR AREA WILL BE NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS LATER TUESDAY.

THE MARINE LAYER IS AGAIN SHALLOW AND NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING.
WILL CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS TODAY...
THOUGH THE CLOUDS MAY AFFECT HOW WARM WE GET TODAY. HUMIDITIES WILL
BE SLOWLY RISING TODAY AS WELL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BEGIN PUSHING
INTO THE COASTAL GAPS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BUT INLAND
COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY. INLAND TEMPS WILL BE LOWER MONDAY DUE TO THE
GRADUAL COOLING OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT. EXPECT BETTER INLAND COVERAGE
OF LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ESPECIALLY NORTH. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THE GENERAL TREND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER
WEATHER. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRUSHING BY
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY...BUT KEEPS MOST OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES FOR LATE TUESDAY DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE USED A BROAD
BRUSH APPROACH FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON CASCADES. /64
&&

.AVIATION...BROAD AREA OF INSTABILITY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MOSTLY MID LEVEL SHOWERS AT THIS POINT
ALTHOUGH THERE IS THUNDERSTORM ACTION FROM ABOUT KRBG TO THE SOUTH
AT THIS HOUR. EXPECT THE GENERAL THREAT FOR THUNDER TO MOVE NORTH
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT
WAVE MOVING NORTH ACTS AS A LIFTING TRIGGER. IN GENERAL...AM
EXPECTING ISOLATED COVERAGE WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THOSE
SINGLE STORMS WILL SPECIFICALLY DEVELOP AND THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
TAF INCLUSION AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND AS
CONDITIONS EVOLVE. REGARDLESS...COULD GET SOME OUTFLOW GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF 35 KTS FROM THE STORMS
THAT DO FORM. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH LOW CLOUD FROM THESE SHOWERS OR
STORMS AND NOT ANY VSBY REDUCTIONS EITHER.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE STRATUS IMPACTS AT THE COAST TODAY AND A BIT
LONGER THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. STILL SEEMS LIKE IT WILL BURN
BACK OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL HAVE A HARD TIME FOLLOWING
VIA SATELLITE AS THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OBSCURING.
THUS WILL HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE ACTUAL EXTENT TODAY. HAVE NO
REASON TO DOUBT LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TONIGHT. /JBONK

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM. BEST TIMING
WILL BE FROM 23Z THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...MAIN CHANGE FOR TODAY IS THE INTRODUCTION OF SHOWERS AND
A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DONT FEEL LIKE THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF THUNDER COVERAGE BUT COULD SEE SOME OUTFLOW
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS.

OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR SUNDAY WITH
N WINDS OVER THE WATERS. SPEEDS HAVE DRAMATICALLY DROPPED OFF THIS
MORNING AS EXPECTED. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND GUSTS IN THE 20
TO 25 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER MODELS BUT AM HAVING
SOME DOUBTS AS THEY APPEAR TO BE MORE THERMALLY DRIVEN FROM
HEATING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. CURRENT CLOUD COVER OVER SW
OREGON AND NRN CALIFORNIA MAY INHIBIT THE STRENGTH OF THE HEATING.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR NOW AND KEEP THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ADVISORY FOR WINDS IN PLACE.

MEANWHILE...THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE GENERATING A STEEP
FRESH SWELL 5 TO 6 FEET AT 7 TO 9 SECONDS. AM SEEING OCCASIONAL
SQUARE SEAS OUT AT BUOY 89 WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LONG PERIOD SW
SWELL. IT APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED AND SPORADIC WITH FOCUS TOWARD
THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF OUR BORDERS SINCE THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY
INDICATION OF SQUARE SEAS SINCE LATE LAST EVENING. AS
SUCH...DROPPED THE ADVISORY FOR SEAS. STILL FAIRLY STEEP
NONETHELESS. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND
     METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER
     HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ
     COUNTY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 021718 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1018 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION MARINE AND W/W/A SECTIONS

.SYNOPSIS...AS A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST TODAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
CONTINUE STEERING MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWARD OVER
WESTERN OREGON AND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TODAY INTO MONDAY... FOR
A THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND HAVE AN INCREASING IMPACT
OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD FOR COOLER TEMPS AND MORE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AS SUSPECTED SATURDAY...A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS AND DEBRIS HAVE ALREADY SPREAD OVER NORTHWEST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING...AND EVEN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LIGHTNING LATE SATURDAY WAS MAINLY NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS...THEN SHIFTED TO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
AND THIS MORNING.

THE AREA OF MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND OVER THE NORTH
COASTAL MOUNTAINS INTO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WITH SOME
SHOWERS. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LIGHTNING WITH THIS AREA IN A WHILE. THIS
AREA OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
WASHINGTON DURING THE MID DAY PERIOD AND SLOWLY OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE MODELS THIS MORNING SHOWED A WEAK UPPER JET SEGMENT WITH
THIS MOISTURE THAT MOVES NORTH OUT OF OUR AREA LATER TODAY.

ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE IS MOVING NORTH FROM SOUTHWEST OREGON INTO
LANE COUNTY THIS MORNING...AND DID PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING AN HOUR OR
TWO AGO AS IT WAS CROSSING INTO LANE COUNTY FROM DOUGLAS COUNTY. THIS
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH THROUGH NORTHWEST OREGON AND
EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER JET SEGMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE PIVOTING THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THIS TAKES SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACK TO THE COAST AND
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AGAIN. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA AS THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED NORTH. CANNOT REALLY RULE
OUT THUNDER ANYWHERE AS WELL. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE OF THUNDER IN
THE SOUTH PART OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING SPREADING NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE SHORT WAVE AND MOISTURE AREA WILL STILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY MONDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL BE SAGGING SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TURN THE
UPPER FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...AND LIMIT THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER MONDAY TO OUR SOUTHERN CASCADE AREAS AND
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CREST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTH WITH MORE ENERGY IN WASHINGTON BY TUESDAY...WITH MORE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON.
AGAIN...THE MAIN THREAT OF THUNDER FOR OUR AREA WILL BE NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS LATER TUESDAY.

THE MARINE LAYER IS AGAIN SHALLOW AND NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING.
WILL CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS TODAY...
THOUGH THE CLOUDS MAY AFFECT HOW WARM WE GET TODAY. HUMIDITIES WILL
BE SLOWLY RISING TODAY AS WELL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BEGIN PUSHING
INTO THE COASTAL GAPS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BUT INLAND
COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY. INLAND TEMPS WILL BE LOWER MONDAY DUE TO THE
GRADUAL COOLING OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT. EXPECT BETTER INLAND COVERAGE
OF LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ESPECIALLY NORTH. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THE GENERAL TREND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER
WEATHER. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRUSHING BY
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY...BUT KEEPS MOST OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES FOR LATE TUESDAY DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE USED A BROAD
BRUSH APPROACH FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON CASCADES. /64
&&

.AVIATION...BROAD AREA OF INSTABILITY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MOSTLY MID LEVEL SHOWERS AT THIS POINT
ALTHOUGH THERE IS THUNDERSTORM ACTION FROM ABOUT KRBG TO THE SOUTH
AT THIS HOUR. EXPECT THE GENERAL THREAT FOR THUNDER TO MOVE NORTH
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT
WAVE MOVING NORTH ACTS AS A LIFTING TRIGGER. IN GENERAL...AM
EXPECTING ISOLATED COVERAGE WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THOSE
SINGLE STORMS WILL SPECIFICALLY DEVELOP AND THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
TAF INCLUSION AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND AS
CONDITIONS EVOLVE. REGARDLESS...COULD GET SOME OUTFLOW GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF 35 KTS FROM THE STORMS
THAT DO FORM. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH LOW CLOUD FROM THESE SHOWERS OR
STORMS AND NOT ANY VSBY REDUCTIONS EITHER.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE STRATUS IMPACTS AT THE COAST TODAY AND A BIT
LONGER THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. STILL SEEMS LIKE IT WILL BURN
BACK OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL HAVE A HARD TIME FOLLOWING
VIA SATELLITE AS THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OBSCURING.
THUS WILL HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE ACTUAL EXTENT TODAY. HAVE NO
REASON TO DOUBT LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TONIGHT. /JBONK

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM. BEST TIMING
WILL BE FROM 23Z THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...MAIN CHANGE FOR TODAY IS THE INTRODUCTION OF SHOWERS AND
A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DONT FEEL LIKE THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF THUNDER COVERAGE BUT COULD SEE SOME OUTFLOW
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS.

OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR SUNDAY WITH
N WINDS OVER THE WATERS. SPEEDS HAVE DRAMATICALLY DROPPED OFF THIS
MORNING AS EXPECTED. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND GUSTS IN THE 20
TO 25 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER MODELS BUT AM HAVING
SOME DOUBTS AS THEY APPEAR TO BE MORE THERMALLY DRIVEN FROM
HEATING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. CURRENT CLOUD COVER OVER SW
OREGON AND NRN CALIFORNIA MAY INHIBIT THE STRENGTH OF THE HEATING.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR NOW AND KEEP THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ADVISORY FOR WINDS IN PLACE.

MEANWHILE...THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE GENERATING A STEEP
FRESH SWELL 5 TO 6 FEET AT 7 TO 9 SECONDS. AM SEEING OCCASIONAL
SQUARE SEAS OUT AT BUOY 89 WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LONG PERIOD SW
SWELL. IT APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED AND SPORADIC WITH FOCUS TOWARD
THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF OUR BORDERS SINCE THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY
INDICATION OF SQUARE SEAS SINCE LATE LAST EVENING. AS
SUCH...DROPPED THE ADVISORY FOR SEAS. STILL FAIRLY STEEP
NONETHELESS. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND
     METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER
     HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ
     COUNTY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 021617
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
916 AM PDT SUN AUG  2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AS A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST TODAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
CONTINUE STEERING MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWARD OVER
WESTERN OREGON AND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TODAY INTO MONDAY... FOR
A THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND HAVE AN INCREASING IMPACT
OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD FOR COOLER TEMPS AND MORE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AS SUSPECTED SATURDAY...A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS AND DEBRIS HAVE ALREADY SPREAD OVER NORTHWEST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING...AND EVEN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LIGHTNING LATE SATURDAY WAS MAINLY NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS...THEN SHIFTED TO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
AND THIS MORNING.

THE AREA OF MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND OVER THE NORTH
COASTAL MOUNTAINS INTO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WITH SOME
SHOWERS. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LIGHTNING WITH THIS AREA IN A WHILE. THIS
AREA OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
WASHINGTON DURING THE MID DAY PERIOD AND SLOWLY OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE MODELS THIS MORNING SHOWED A WEAK UPPER JET SEGMENT WITH
THIS MOISTURE THAT MOVES NORTH OUT OF OUR AREA LATER TODAY.

ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE IS MOVING NORTH FROM SOUTHWEST OREGON INTO
LANE COUNTY THIS MORNING...AND DID PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING AN HOUR OR
TWO AGO AS IT WAS CROSSING INTO LANE COUNTY FROM DOUGLAS COUNTY. THIS
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH THROUGH NORTHWEST OREGON AND
EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER JET SEGMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE PIVOTING THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THIS TAKES SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACK TO THE COAST AND
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AGAIN. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA AS THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED NORTH. CANNOT REALLY RULE
OUT THUNDER ANYWHERE AS WELL. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE OF THUNDER IN
THE SOUTH PART OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING SPREADING NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE SHORT WAVE AND MOISTURE AREA WILL STILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY MONDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL BE SAGGING SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TURN THE
UPPER FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...AND LIMIT THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER MONDAY TO OUR SOUTHERN CASCADE AREAS AND
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CREST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTH WITH MORE ENERGY IN WASHINGTON BY TUESDAY...WITH MORE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON.
AGAIN...THE MAIN THREAT OF THUNDER FOR OUR AREA WILL BE NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS LATER TUESDAY.

THE MARINE LAYER IS AGAIN SHALLOW AND NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING.
WILL CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS TODAY...
THOUGH THE CLOUDS MAY AFFECT HOW WARM WE GET TODAY. HUMIDITIES WILL
BE SLOWLY RISING TODAY AS WELL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BEGIN PUSHING
INTO THE COASTAL GAPS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BUT INLAND
COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY. INLAND TEMPS WILL BE LOWER MONDAY DUE TO THE
GRADUAL COOLING OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT. EXPECT BETTER INLAND COVERAGE
OF LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ESPECIALLY NORTH. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THE GENERAL TREND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER
WEATHER. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRUSHING BY
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY...BUT KEEPS MOST OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES FOR LATE TUESDAY DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE USED A BROAD
BRUSH APPROACH FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON CASCADES. /64
&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VFR INLAND THIS MORNING BUT WITH
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OVER SW OREGON WILL DRIFT OVER
THE REGION. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN/THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA 10Z-17Z BUT CHANCE APPEARS SMALL ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE MENTION IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF. AT THE COAST...SHALLOW IFR
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND LIKELY DEVELOPS
ALONG THE NORTH COAST BY 11Z. THIS STRATUS WILL RETREAT OFFSHORE
AROUND 18Z FOR VFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT DEVELOPING
CUMULUS SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPANDING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE COAST RANGE 03Z-10Z
TUE...BUT AGAIN INSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN ANY PARTICULAR
TAF AT THIS TIME.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOME
RESIDUAL MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OVER SW OREGON WILL DRIFT
OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. LIKELY SEE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM. CHANCES BEST S AND E OF
TERMINAL AND IN CASCADES...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ONE IMPACTING THE
TERMINAL DURING 04Z-10Z.   CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE ARE
DRIFTING FROM S TO N INTO THE OUTER CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. POTENTIAL THREATS ARE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS...WITH THE THREAT AREA EXPANDING TO COVER MUCH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN IN THE EVENING HOURS.

OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR SUNDAY WITH N
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. AN OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS REVEALED WINDS STILL
AROUND 20 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS...SO WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY FOR
WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 10 AM AS AREAS OF MARGINALLY ADVISORY
STRENGTH WINDS MAY STILL EXIST. ANOTHER SCA FOR WINDS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTS TO 25 KT EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP.

MEANWHILE...THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE MAINTAINING STEEP SEAS
OVER THE WATERS OF 6 TO 7 FEET AT 6 TO 8 SECONDS. THEREFORE...WITH
CONDITIONS FLUCTUATING ABOVE OR VERY NEAR OUR CRITERIA FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS...THE ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS LOOKS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.
CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND
     METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER
     HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ
     COUNTY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
     WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 021617
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
916 AM PDT SUN AUG  2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AS A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST TODAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
CONTINUE STEERING MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWARD OVER
WESTERN OREGON AND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TODAY INTO MONDAY... FOR
A THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND HAVE AN INCREASING IMPACT
OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD FOR COOLER TEMPS AND MORE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AS SUSPECTED SATURDAY...A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS AND DEBRIS HAVE ALREADY SPREAD OVER NORTHWEST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING...AND EVEN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LIGHTNING LATE SATURDAY WAS MAINLY NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS...THEN SHIFTED TO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
AND THIS MORNING.

THE AREA OF MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND OVER THE NORTH
COASTAL MOUNTAINS INTO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WITH SOME
SHOWERS. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LIGHTNING WITH THIS AREA IN A WHILE. THIS
AREA OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
WASHINGTON DURING THE MID DAY PERIOD AND SLOWLY OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE MODELS THIS MORNING SHOWED A WEAK UPPER JET SEGMENT WITH
THIS MOISTURE THAT MOVES NORTH OUT OF OUR AREA LATER TODAY.

ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE IS MOVING NORTH FROM SOUTHWEST OREGON INTO
LANE COUNTY THIS MORNING...AND DID PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING AN HOUR OR
TWO AGO AS IT WAS CROSSING INTO LANE COUNTY FROM DOUGLAS COUNTY. THIS
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH THROUGH NORTHWEST OREGON AND
EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER JET SEGMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE PIVOTING THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THIS TAKES SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACK TO THE COAST AND
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AGAIN. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA AS THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED NORTH. CANNOT REALLY RULE
OUT THUNDER ANYWHERE AS WELL. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE OF THUNDER IN
THE SOUTH PART OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING SPREADING NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE SHORT WAVE AND MOISTURE AREA WILL STILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY MONDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL BE SAGGING SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TURN THE
UPPER FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...AND LIMIT THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER MONDAY TO OUR SOUTHERN CASCADE AREAS AND
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CREST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTH WITH MORE ENERGY IN WASHINGTON BY TUESDAY...WITH MORE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON.
AGAIN...THE MAIN THREAT OF THUNDER FOR OUR AREA WILL BE NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS LATER TUESDAY.

THE MARINE LAYER IS AGAIN SHALLOW AND NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING.
WILL CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS TODAY...
THOUGH THE CLOUDS MAY AFFECT HOW WARM WE GET TODAY. HUMIDITIES WILL
BE SLOWLY RISING TODAY AS WELL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BEGIN PUSHING
INTO THE COASTAL GAPS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BUT INLAND
COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY. INLAND TEMPS WILL BE LOWER MONDAY DUE TO THE
GRADUAL COOLING OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT. EXPECT BETTER INLAND COVERAGE
OF LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ESPECIALLY NORTH. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THE GENERAL TREND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER
WEATHER. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRUSHING BY
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY...BUT KEEPS MOST OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES FOR LATE TUESDAY DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE USED A BROAD
BRUSH APPROACH FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON CASCADES. /64
&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VFR INLAND THIS MORNING BUT WITH
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OVER SW OREGON WILL DRIFT OVER
THE REGION. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN/THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA 10Z-17Z BUT CHANCE APPEARS SMALL ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE MENTION IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF. AT THE COAST...SHALLOW IFR
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND LIKELY DEVELOPS
ALONG THE NORTH COAST BY 11Z. THIS STRATUS WILL RETREAT OFFSHORE
AROUND 18Z FOR VFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT DEVELOPING
CUMULUS SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPANDING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE COAST RANGE 03Z-10Z
TUE...BUT AGAIN INSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN ANY PARTICULAR
TAF AT THIS TIME.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOME
RESIDUAL MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OVER SW OREGON WILL DRIFT
OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. LIKELY SEE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM. CHANCES BEST S AND E OF
TERMINAL AND IN CASCADES...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ONE IMPACTING THE
TERMINAL DURING 04Z-10Z.   CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE ARE
DRIFTING FROM S TO N INTO THE OUTER CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. POTENTIAL THREATS ARE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS...WITH THE THREAT AREA EXPANDING TO COVER MUCH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN IN THE EVENING HOURS.

OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR SUNDAY WITH N
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. AN OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS REVEALED WINDS STILL
AROUND 20 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS...SO WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY FOR
WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 10 AM AS AREAS OF MARGINALLY ADVISORY
STRENGTH WINDS MAY STILL EXIST. ANOTHER SCA FOR WINDS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTS TO 25 KT EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP.

MEANWHILE...THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE MAINTAINING STEEP SEAS
OVER THE WATERS OF 6 TO 7 FEET AT 6 TO 8 SECONDS. THEREFORE...WITH
CONDITIONS FLUCTUATING ABOVE OR VERY NEAR OUR CRITERIA FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS...THE ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS LOOKS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.
CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND
     METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER
     HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ
     COUNTY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
     WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSEW 021607
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
915 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST TODAY...THEN WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID
WEEK. WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND ALSO TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OFF THE OREGON
COAST OVERNIGHT COVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN WASHINGTON. THESE CLOUDS WILL
DRIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND BY AFTERNOON SUNNY SKIES WILL RETURN OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE GRIDS AND FORECASTS FOR
MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT
IN DEFERENCE TO THE CLOUD COVER. STILL LOOKING FOR 80S AND LOW 90S
OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY.

REST OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. EXPECTING SOME INTRUSION OF
MARINE STRATUS MONDAY MORNING BUT THIS WILL RAPIDLY RETREAT TO THE
COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL BE AFFECTING
THE AREA WITH CONSIDERABLY LOWER HEIGHTS SO HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 80S INLAND AND NEAR 70 ON THE COAST UNDER MORE
PERSISTENT STRATUS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE CASCADES ON MONDAY.

A STRONGER MARINE PUSH MONDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE IN THE CARDS. THIS
WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO PUGET SOUND TUESDAY MORNING. THOUGH THEY WILL
PROBABLY EVAPORATE BACK TO THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON...HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE LOWER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR A WEEK...IN THE 70S
AND LOW 80S. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PAC NW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD MUCH LESS MOISTURE SO THERE IS LITTLE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. LEFT THE SHOWERS IN OVER THE MOUNTAINS
BUT IF ANY RAIN DOES FALL IT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL AGAIN
TOP OUT MOSTLY IN THE 70S.

MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO VARY MORE STARTING THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
TREND IS TOWARD WEAK RIDGING. THIS MAY BE TRANSITORY BUT THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. THIS MAY CARRY OVER INTO FRIDAY BUT ANOTHER
TROUGH MAY APPROACH THE REGION AND THE AFFECTS COULD BEGIN TO BE
FELT FRIDAY OR OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY START TO MODERATE BY SATURDAY...
FALLING BACK TO THE 70S OR LOW 80S...WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THIS NEXT WEEKEND IS
LOW.  MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE STABLE
AND DRY...EXCEPT FOR SHALLOW MARINE MOISTURE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

THERE IS PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE LOWER
CHEHALIS VALLEY AND SOUTH INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. IT SHOULD
BURN OFF THIS MORNING...AND STRATUS AND FOG COULD RETURN TO THOSE
AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS
BELOW 12000 FT.

KSEA...NORTH WIND 4-10 KT BECOMING NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
BECOMING VARIABLE 6 KT OR LESS TONIGHT.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES WILL RESULT IN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THEN
AGAIN AT TIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK. BRIEF WESTERLY GALES OCCURRED IN THE
CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT SATURDAY
EVENING...AND CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR AGAIN THIS EVENING. FOR NOW I
WILL STAY WITH OUR FORECAST OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KT THERE TONIGHT...BUT I MAY DECIDE TO UPGRADE THAT TO A
GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WESTERLIES ARE A GOOD BET
THERE MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS WELL.   MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR PARTS
     OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT ZONE 150...CENTRAL
STRAIT      OF JUAN DE FUCA...EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.      GALE WATCH
CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 021607
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
915 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST TODAY...THEN WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID
WEEK. WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND ALSO TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OFF THE OREGON
COAST OVERNIGHT COVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN WASHINGTON. THESE CLOUDS WILL
DRIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND BY AFTERNOON SUNNY SKIES WILL RETURN OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE GRIDS AND FORECASTS FOR
MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT
IN DEFERENCE TO THE CLOUD COVER. STILL LOOKING FOR 80S AND LOW 90S
OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY.

REST OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. EXPECTING SOME INTRUSION OF
MARINE STRATUS MONDAY MORNING BUT THIS WILL RAPIDLY RETREAT TO THE
COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL BE AFFECTING
THE AREA WITH CONSIDERABLY LOWER HEIGHTS SO HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 80S INLAND AND NEAR 70 ON THE COAST UNDER MORE
PERSISTENT STRATUS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE CASCADES ON MONDAY.

A STRONGER MARINE PUSH MONDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE IN THE CARDS. THIS
WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO PUGET SOUND TUESDAY MORNING. THOUGH THEY WILL
PROBABLY EVAPORATE BACK TO THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON...HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE LOWER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR A WEEK...IN THE 70S
AND LOW 80S. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PAC NW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD MUCH LESS MOISTURE SO THERE IS LITTLE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. LEFT THE SHOWERS IN OVER THE MOUNTAINS
BUT IF ANY RAIN DOES FALL IT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL AGAIN
TOP OUT MOSTLY IN THE 70S.

MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO VARY MORE STARTING THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
TREND IS TOWARD WEAK RIDGING. THIS MAY BE TRANSITORY BUT THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. THIS MAY CARRY OVER INTO FRIDAY BUT ANOTHER
TROUGH MAY APPROACH THE REGION AND THE AFFECTS COULD BEGIN TO BE
FELT FRIDAY OR OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY START TO MODERATE BY SATURDAY...
FALLING BACK TO THE 70S OR LOW 80S...WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THIS NEXT WEEKEND IS
LOW.  MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE STABLE
AND DRY...EXCEPT FOR SHALLOW MARINE MOISTURE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

THERE IS PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE LOWER
CHEHALIS VALLEY AND SOUTH INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. IT SHOULD
BURN OFF THIS MORNING...AND STRATUS AND FOG COULD RETURN TO THOSE
AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS
BELOW 12000 FT.

KSEA...NORTH WIND 4-10 KT BECOMING NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
BECOMING VARIABLE 6 KT OR LESS TONIGHT.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES WILL RESULT IN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THEN
AGAIN AT TIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK. BRIEF WESTERLY GALES OCCURRED IN THE
CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT SATURDAY
EVENING...AND CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR AGAIN THIS EVENING. FOR NOW I
WILL STAY WITH OUR FORECAST OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KT THERE TONIGHT...BUT I MAY DECIDE TO UPGRADE THAT TO A
GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WESTERLIES ARE A GOOD BET
THERE MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS WELL.   MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR PARTS
     OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT ZONE 150...CENTRAL
STRAIT      OF JUAN DE FUCA...EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.      GALE WATCH
CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 021607
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
915 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST TODAY...THEN WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID
WEEK. WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND ALSO TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OFF THE OREGON
COAST OVERNIGHT COVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN WASHINGTON. THESE CLOUDS WILL
DRIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND BY AFTERNOON SUNNY SKIES WILL RETURN OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE GRIDS AND FORECASTS FOR
MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT
IN DEFERENCE TO THE CLOUD COVER. STILL LOOKING FOR 80S AND LOW 90S
OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY.

REST OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. EXPECTING SOME INTRUSION OF
MARINE STRATUS MONDAY MORNING BUT THIS WILL RAPIDLY RETREAT TO THE
COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL BE AFFECTING
THE AREA WITH CONSIDERABLY LOWER HEIGHTS SO HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 80S INLAND AND NEAR 70 ON THE COAST UNDER MORE
PERSISTENT STRATUS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE CASCADES ON MONDAY.

A STRONGER MARINE PUSH MONDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE IN THE CARDS. THIS
WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO PUGET SOUND TUESDAY MORNING. THOUGH THEY WILL
PROBABLY EVAPORATE BACK TO THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON...HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE LOWER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR A WEEK...IN THE 70S
AND LOW 80S. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PAC NW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD MUCH LESS MOISTURE SO THERE IS LITTLE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. LEFT THE SHOWERS IN OVER THE MOUNTAINS
BUT IF ANY RAIN DOES FALL IT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL AGAIN
TOP OUT MOSTLY IN THE 70S.

MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO VARY MORE STARTING THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
TREND IS TOWARD WEAK RIDGING. THIS MAY BE TRANSITORY BUT THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. THIS MAY CARRY OVER INTO FRIDAY BUT ANOTHER
TROUGH MAY APPROACH THE REGION AND THE AFFECTS COULD BEGIN TO BE
FELT FRIDAY OR OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY START TO MODERATE BY SATURDAY...
FALLING BACK TO THE 70S OR LOW 80S...WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THIS NEXT WEEKEND IS
LOW.  MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE STABLE
AND DRY...EXCEPT FOR SHALLOW MARINE MOISTURE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

THERE IS PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE LOWER
CHEHALIS VALLEY AND SOUTH INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. IT SHOULD
BURN OFF THIS MORNING...AND STRATUS AND FOG COULD RETURN TO THOSE
AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS
BELOW 12000 FT.

KSEA...NORTH WIND 4-10 KT BECOMING NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
BECOMING VARIABLE 6 KT OR LESS TONIGHT.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES WILL RESULT IN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THEN
AGAIN AT TIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK. BRIEF WESTERLY GALES OCCURRED IN THE
CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT SATURDAY
EVENING...AND CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR AGAIN THIS EVENING. FOR NOW I
WILL STAY WITH OUR FORECAST OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KT THERE TONIGHT...BUT I MAY DECIDE TO UPGRADE THAT TO A
GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WESTERLIES ARE A GOOD BET
THERE MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS WELL.   MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR PARTS
     OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT ZONE 150...CENTRAL
STRAIT      OF JUAN DE FUCA...EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.      GALE WATCH
CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 021607
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
915 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST TODAY...THEN WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID
WEEK. WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND ALSO TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OFF THE OREGON
COAST OVERNIGHT COVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN WASHINGTON. THESE CLOUDS WILL
DRIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND BY AFTERNOON SUNNY SKIES WILL RETURN OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE GRIDS AND FORECASTS FOR
MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT
IN DEFERENCE TO THE CLOUD COVER. STILL LOOKING FOR 80S AND LOW 90S
OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY.

REST OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. EXPECTING SOME INTRUSION OF
MARINE STRATUS MONDAY MORNING BUT THIS WILL RAPIDLY RETREAT TO THE
COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL BE AFFECTING
THE AREA WITH CONSIDERABLY LOWER HEIGHTS SO HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 80S INLAND AND NEAR 70 ON THE COAST UNDER MORE
PERSISTENT STRATUS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE CASCADES ON MONDAY.

A STRONGER MARINE PUSH MONDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE IN THE CARDS. THIS
WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO PUGET SOUND TUESDAY MORNING. THOUGH THEY WILL
PROBABLY EVAPORATE BACK TO THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON...HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE LOWER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR A WEEK...IN THE 70S
AND LOW 80S. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PAC NW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD MUCH LESS MOISTURE SO THERE IS LITTLE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. LEFT THE SHOWERS IN OVER THE MOUNTAINS
BUT IF ANY RAIN DOES FALL IT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL AGAIN
TOP OUT MOSTLY IN THE 70S.

MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO VARY MORE STARTING THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
TREND IS TOWARD WEAK RIDGING. THIS MAY BE TRANSITORY BUT THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. THIS MAY CARRY OVER INTO FRIDAY BUT ANOTHER
TROUGH MAY APPROACH THE REGION AND THE AFFECTS COULD BEGIN TO BE
FELT FRIDAY OR OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY START TO MODERATE BY SATURDAY...
FALLING BACK TO THE 70S OR LOW 80S...WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THIS NEXT WEEKEND IS
LOW.  MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE STABLE
AND DRY...EXCEPT FOR SHALLOW MARINE MOISTURE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

THERE IS PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE LOWER
CHEHALIS VALLEY AND SOUTH INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. IT SHOULD
BURN OFF THIS MORNING...AND STRATUS AND FOG COULD RETURN TO THOSE
AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS
BELOW 12000 FT.

KSEA...NORTH WIND 4-10 KT BECOMING NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
BECOMING VARIABLE 6 KT OR LESS TONIGHT.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES WILL RESULT IN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THEN
AGAIN AT TIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK. BRIEF WESTERLY GALES OCCURRED IN THE
CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT SATURDAY
EVENING...AND CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR AGAIN THIS EVENING. FOR NOW I
WILL STAY WITH OUR FORECAST OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KT THERE TONIGHT...BUT I MAY DECIDE TO UPGRADE THAT TO A
GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WESTERLIES ARE A GOOD BET
THERE MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS WELL.   MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR PARTS
     OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT ZONE 150...CENTRAL
STRAIT      OF JUAN DE FUCA...EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.      GALE WATCH
CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KOTX 021347
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
646 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Another hot and smokey day will be on tap today with triple digit
heat over much of central and southeast Washington. The ongoing
drought combined with high heat and low humidity will contribute
to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest. Temperatures
on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an increase in
clouds. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures and locally breezy
winds are expected Tuesday through Friday following the arrival
of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A quick update this morning to increase the amount of smoke across
northeast Washington and north Idaho this morning as seen on the
visible satellite images.

Today through Monday night: Expect one more hot and dry day
today, then expect conditions to gradually moisten up and cool
slightly. The ridge of high pressure will stay firm over the
Inland Northwest today as the surface trough spans from the
Columbia Basin to north Idaho. This ridge is expected to shift
east tonight into Monday as an upper trough of low pressure swings
down across B.C. This will enhance a moist southwest flow and
advect moisture and clouds into the region.

Temperatures: Only a degree or two change in temperatures is
expected today as low levels remain warm. It will be another hot
and unstable day. This could make current wildfire more active
once again. Could see a few near record highs, today in Moses
Lake, Plain, Stehekin and Omak. The heat advisory will continue
for another day in the LC valley as daytime temperatures top out
from 93 to 103. Monday`s temperatures will cool a few more degrees
with mainly 90s expected.

Winds/humidity: Downslope Cascade gap winds will be another
concern today especially with the extremely dry humidity levels,
from the upper single digits to mid teens. Wind speeds will
lighten up this morning and could see some terrain driven
upslope/up valley winds in sheltered valleys. Surface pressure
gradients are expected to tighten to about 4-5 mb this afternoon
and should see a repeat of gusty gap winds into the evening across
the Cascade valleys, but speeds don`t look to be as strong as
those on Saturday. Some local afternoon gusts of 15 mph are also
possible across the Columbia Basin as the dry and unstable
atmosphere mixes. Northwest to westerly winds will prevail for
much of the day on Monday although humidity values will gradually
increase.

Clouds/weather: Areas of smoke will be a concern this morning and
into the afternoon as the wildfires remain active. The Wolverine
fire near Lake Chelan will be the main culprit although other
smaller fires especially near the Canadian border will add to the
smokey haze. High clouds will be on the increase today as cirrus
rotates in from the southwest. This moisture is associated with a
monsoonal fetch coming up from California. This moisture will
increase tonight especially across the Cascades and could squeeze
a few sprinkles. A weak disturbance in the moist southwest flow
will ripple up the Cascades Monday morning with a small chance of
elevated convection and more sprinkles. As the upper trough drops
across B.C., this will push the disturbance and moisture band
across the Inland Northwest Monday afternoon and evening.
Instability will remain and this could generate more high based
thunderstorms across northeast Washington and north Idaho. There
looks to be a better chance of measurable precipitation across
north Idaho late Monday night, albeit it will still be light.
/rfox.

Tuesday and Wednesday: A 500mb low will reside over British
Columbia Tuesday and Wednesday. The evening runs of the GFS and
ECMWF are in decent agreement that the majority of eastern
Washington and north Idaho will be under the influence of dry
westerly flow Tuesday and Wednesday. However, there may be enough
cool cyclonic flow aloft along the Canadian border to allow the
formation of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
and Wednesday. A 20-30 percent chance for showers and
thunderstorms has also been retained for the Idaho Panhandle
mountains along the Montana border Tuesday, but the evening models
have trended quicker pushing moisture out of the Panhandle. If
this trend continues, Tuesday will be a dry day for most of the
Panhandle. Tuesday and Wednesday look breezy with sustained 10 to
15 mph common across the Basin, Palouse and Spokane area. Gusts to
20 mph will be likely in the afternoon with localized gusts in the
25 to 30 mph range through the Cascasde gaps during the early
evening hours. Even though temperatures will be trending down
Tuesday and Wednesday, wind and low relative humidity levels could
be a concern given the exceedingly dry conditions following the
heat of the weekend.

Thursday through Saturday: It is hard to get too excited about
chances for showers Thursday through Saturday. (Though....some of
us will be excited about the cooler, more seasonal temperatures.)
With the departure of the 500mb low out of British Columbia
Thursday night, the Pacific Northwest will be under a flat
westerly flow Thursday and Friday. The persistent on-shore flow
should bring a gradual increase in our surface dewpoints Thursday
through Saturday, but probably not enough to produce much
instability. There is a hint of a weak shorwave trough on
Saturday, so a 20 percent chance of mountain showers and
thunderstorms enters ther forecast Saturday afternoon. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Areas of smoke will be a concern for some of the TAF
sites in the next 24 hours, especially for KMWH where the
norther winds advect lcl MVFR conditions over the site. Expect
some improvement this afternoon with daytime mixing and westerly
winds. Otherwise smoke will be either high level or cause local
MVFR vsbys. Mid and high level clouds will increase through the
period. Winds should remain under 10kt this afternoon but local
higher gusts are possible. Downslope gap winds will increase after
02z especially in KEAT where speeds will reach around 14kt. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  95  66  87  59 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  59  97  61  87  56 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Pullman        98  56  93  58  86  53 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      104  68  99  68  93  63 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville      100  57  98  59  89  55 /   0   0  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      96  52  97  54  83  52 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Kellogg        96  58  96  60  84  54 /   0   0   0  30  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  97  62  93  59 /  10   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee     101  73  97  68  92  65 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Omak          100  68  97  63  92  59 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 021347
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
646 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Another hot and smokey day will be on tap today with triple digit
heat over much of central and southeast Washington. The ongoing
drought combined with high heat and low humidity will contribute
to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest. Temperatures
on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an increase in
clouds. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures and locally breezy
winds are expected Tuesday through Friday following the arrival
of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A quick update this morning to increase the amount of smoke across
northeast Washington and north Idaho this morning as seen on the
visible satellite images.

Today through Monday night: Expect one more hot and dry day
today, then expect conditions to gradually moisten up and cool
slightly. The ridge of high pressure will stay firm over the
Inland Northwest today as the surface trough spans from the
Columbia Basin to north Idaho. This ridge is expected to shift
east tonight into Monday as an upper trough of low pressure swings
down across B.C. This will enhance a moist southwest flow and
advect moisture and clouds into the region.

Temperatures: Only a degree or two change in temperatures is
expected today as low levels remain warm. It will be another hot
and unstable day. This could make current wildfire more active
once again. Could see a few near record highs, today in Moses
Lake, Plain, Stehekin and Omak. The heat advisory will continue
for another day in the LC valley as daytime temperatures top out
from 93 to 103. Monday`s temperatures will cool a few more degrees
with mainly 90s expected.

Winds/humidity: Downslope Cascade gap winds will be another
concern today especially with the extremely dry humidity levels,
from the upper single digits to mid teens. Wind speeds will
lighten up this morning and could see some terrain driven
upslope/up valley winds in sheltered valleys. Surface pressure
gradients are expected to tighten to about 4-5 mb this afternoon
and should see a repeat of gusty gap winds into the evening across
the Cascade valleys, but speeds don`t look to be as strong as
those on Saturday. Some local afternoon gusts of 15 mph are also
possible across the Columbia Basin as the dry and unstable
atmosphere mixes. Northwest to westerly winds will prevail for
much of the day on Monday although humidity values will gradually
increase.

Clouds/weather: Areas of smoke will be a concern this morning and
into the afternoon as the wildfires remain active. The Wolverine
fire near Lake Chelan will be the main culprit although other
smaller fires especially near the Canadian border will add to the
smokey haze. High clouds will be on the increase today as cirrus
rotates in from the southwest. This moisture is associated with a
monsoonal fetch coming up from California. This moisture will
increase tonight especially across the Cascades and could squeeze
a few sprinkles. A weak disturbance in the moist southwest flow
will ripple up the Cascades Monday morning with a small chance of
elevated convection and more sprinkles. As the upper trough drops
across B.C., this will push the disturbance and moisture band
across the Inland Northwest Monday afternoon and evening.
Instability will remain and this could generate more high based
thunderstorms across northeast Washington and north Idaho. There
looks to be a better chance of measurable precipitation across
north Idaho late Monday night, albeit it will still be light.
/rfox.

Tuesday and Wednesday: A 500mb low will reside over British
Columbia Tuesday and Wednesday. The evening runs of the GFS and
ECMWF are in decent agreement that the majority of eastern
Washington and north Idaho will be under the influence of dry
westerly flow Tuesday and Wednesday. However, there may be enough
cool cyclonic flow aloft along the Canadian border to allow the
formation of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
and Wednesday. A 20-30 percent chance for showers and
thunderstorms has also been retained for the Idaho Panhandle
mountains along the Montana border Tuesday, but the evening models
have trended quicker pushing moisture out of the Panhandle. If
this trend continues, Tuesday will be a dry day for most of the
Panhandle. Tuesday and Wednesday look breezy with sustained 10 to
15 mph common across the Basin, Palouse and Spokane area. Gusts to
20 mph will be likely in the afternoon with localized gusts in the
25 to 30 mph range through the Cascasde gaps during the early
evening hours. Even though temperatures will be trending down
Tuesday and Wednesday, wind and low relative humidity levels could
be a concern given the exceedingly dry conditions following the
heat of the weekend.

Thursday through Saturday: It is hard to get too excited about
chances for showers Thursday through Saturday. (Though....some of
us will be excited about the cooler, more seasonal temperatures.)
With the departure of the 500mb low out of British Columbia
Thursday night, the Pacific Northwest will be under a flat
westerly flow Thursday and Friday. The persistent on-shore flow
should bring a gradual increase in our surface dewpoints Thursday
through Saturday, but probably not enough to produce much
instability. There is a hint of a weak shorwave trough on
Saturday, so a 20 percent chance of mountain showers and
thunderstorms enters ther forecast Saturday afternoon. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Areas of smoke will be a concern for some of the TAF
sites in the next 24 hours, especially for KMWH where the
norther winds advect lcl MVFR conditions over the site. Expect
some improvement this afternoon with daytime mixing and westerly
winds. Otherwise smoke will be either high level or cause local
MVFR vsbys. Mid and high level clouds will increase through the
period. Winds should remain under 10kt this afternoon but local
higher gusts are possible. Downslope gap winds will increase after
02z especially in KEAT where speeds will reach around 14kt. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  95  66  87  59 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  59  97  61  87  56 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Pullman        98  56  93  58  86  53 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      104  68  99  68  93  63 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville      100  57  98  59  89  55 /   0   0  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      96  52  97  54  83  52 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Kellogg        96  58  96  60  84  54 /   0   0   0  30  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  97  62  93  59 /  10   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee     101  73  97  68  92  65 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Omak          100  68  97  63  92  59 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 021347
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
646 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Another hot and smokey day will be on tap today with triple digit
heat over much of central and southeast Washington. The ongoing
drought combined with high heat and low humidity will contribute
to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest. Temperatures
on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an increase in
clouds. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures and locally breezy
winds are expected Tuesday through Friday following the arrival
of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A quick update this morning to increase the amount of smoke across
northeast Washington and north Idaho this morning as seen on the
visible satellite images.

Today through Monday night: Expect one more hot and dry day
today, then expect conditions to gradually moisten up and cool
slightly. The ridge of high pressure will stay firm over the
Inland Northwest today as the surface trough spans from the
Columbia Basin to north Idaho. This ridge is expected to shift
east tonight into Monday as an upper trough of low pressure swings
down across B.C. This will enhance a moist southwest flow and
advect moisture and clouds into the region.

Temperatures: Only a degree or two change in temperatures is
expected today as low levels remain warm. It will be another hot
and unstable day. This could make current wildfire more active
once again. Could see a few near record highs, today in Moses
Lake, Plain, Stehekin and Omak. The heat advisory will continue
for another day in the LC valley as daytime temperatures top out
from 93 to 103. Monday`s temperatures will cool a few more degrees
with mainly 90s expected.

Winds/humidity: Downslope Cascade gap winds will be another
concern today especially with the extremely dry humidity levels,
from the upper single digits to mid teens. Wind speeds will
lighten up this morning and could see some terrain driven
upslope/up valley winds in sheltered valleys. Surface pressure
gradients are expected to tighten to about 4-5 mb this afternoon
and should see a repeat of gusty gap winds into the evening across
the Cascade valleys, but speeds don`t look to be as strong as
those on Saturday. Some local afternoon gusts of 15 mph are also
possible across the Columbia Basin as the dry and unstable
atmosphere mixes. Northwest to westerly winds will prevail for
much of the day on Monday although humidity values will gradually
increase.

Clouds/weather: Areas of smoke will be a concern this morning and
into the afternoon as the wildfires remain active. The Wolverine
fire near Lake Chelan will be the main culprit although other
smaller fires especially near the Canadian border will add to the
smokey haze. High clouds will be on the increase today as cirrus
rotates in from the southwest. This moisture is associated with a
monsoonal fetch coming up from California. This moisture will
increase tonight especially across the Cascades and could squeeze
a few sprinkles. A weak disturbance in the moist southwest flow
will ripple up the Cascades Monday morning with a small chance of
elevated convection and more sprinkles. As the upper trough drops
across B.C., this will push the disturbance and moisture band
across the Inland Northwest Monday afternoon and evening.
Instability will remain and this could generate more high based
thunderstorms across northeast Washington and north Idaho. There
looks to be a better chance of measurable precipitation across
north Idaho late Monday night, albeit it will still be light.
/rfox.

Tuesday and Wednesday: A 500mb low will reside over British
Columbia Tuesday and Wednesday. The evening runs of the GFS and
ECMWF are in decent agreement that the majority of eastern
Washington and north Idaho will be under the influence of dry
westerly flow Tuesday and Wednesday. However, there may be enough
cool cyclonic flow aloft along the Canadian border to allow the
formation of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
and Wednesday. A 20-30 percent chance for showers and
thunderstorms has also been retained for the Idaho Panhandle
mountains along the Montana border Tuesday, but the evening models
have trended quicker pushing moisture out of the Panhandle. If
this trend continues, Tuesday will be a dry day for most of the
Panhandle. Tuesday and Wednesday look breezy with sustained 10 to
15 mph common across the Basin, Palouse and Spokane area. Gusts to
20 mph will be likely in the afternoon with localized gusts in the
25 to 30 mph range through the Cascasde gaps during the early
evening hours. Even though temperatures will be trending down
Tuesday and Wednesday, wind and low relative humidity levels could
be a concern given the exceedingly dry conditions following the
heat of the weekend.

Thursday through Saturday: It is hard to get too excited about
chances for showers Thursday through Saturday. (Though....some of
us will be excited about the cooler, more seasonal temperatures.)
With the departure of the 500mb low out of British Columbia
Thursday night, the Pacific Northwest will be under a flat
westerly flow Thursday and Friday. The persistent on-shore flow
should bring a gradual increase in our surface dewpoints Thursday
through Saturday, but probably not enough to produce much
instability. There is a hint of a weak shorwave trough on
Saturday, so a 20 percent chance of mountain showers and
thunderstorms enters ther forecast Saturday afternoon. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Areas of smoke will be a concern for some of the TAF
sites in the next 24 hours, especially for KMWH where the
norther winds advect lcl MVFR conditions over the site. Expect
some improvement this afternoon with daytime mixing and westerly
winds. Otherwise smoke will be either high level or cause local
MVFR vsbys. Mid and high level clouds will increase through the
period. Winds should remain under 10kt this afternoon but local
higher gusts are possible. Downslope gap winds will increase after
02z especially in KEAT where speeds will reach around 14kt. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  95  66  87  59 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  59  97  61  87  56 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Pullman        98  56  93  58  86  53 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      104  68  99  68  93  63 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville      100  57  98  59  89  55 /   0   0  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      96  52  97  54  83  52 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Kellogg        96  58  96  60  84  54 /   0   0   0  30  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  97  62  93  59 /  10   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee     101  73  97  68  92  65 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Omak          100  68  97  63  92  59 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 021347
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
646 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Another hot and smokey day will be on tap today with triple digit
heat over much of central and southeast Washington. The ongoing
drought combined with high heat and low humidity will contribute
to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest. Temperatures
on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an increase in
clouds. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures and locally breezy
winds are expected Tuesday through Friday following the arrival
of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A quick update this morning to increase the amount of smoke across
northeast Washington and north Idaho this morning as seen on the
visible satellite images.

Today through Monday night: Expect one more hot and dry day
today, then expect conditions to gradually moisten up and cool
slightly. The ridge of high pressure will stay firm over the
Inland Northwest today as the surface trough spans from the
Columbia Basin to north Idaho. This ridge is expected to shift
east tonight into Monday as an upper trough of low pressure swings
down across B.C. This will enhance a moist southwest flow and
advect moisture and clouds into the region.

Temperatures: Only a degree or two change in temperatures is
expected today as low levels remain warm. It will be another hot
and unstable day. This could make current wildfire more active
once again. Could see a few near record highs, today in Moses
Lake, Plain, Stehekin and Omak. The heat advisory will continue
for another day in the LC valley as daytime temperatures top out
from 93 to 103. Monday`s temperatures will cool a few more degrees
with mainly 90s expected.

Winds/humidity: Downslope Cascade gap winds will be another
concern today especially with the extremely dry humidity levels,
from the upper single digits to mid teens. Wind speeds will
lighten up this morning and could see some terrain driven
upslope/up valley winds in sheltered valleys. Surface pressure
gradients are expected to tighten to about 4-5 mb this afternoon
and should see a repeat of gusty gap winds into the evening across
the Cascade valleys, but speeds don`t look to be as strong as
those on Saturday. Some local afternoon gusts of 15 mph are also
possible across the Columbia Basin as the dry and unstable
atmosphere mixes. Northwest to westerly winds will prevail for
much of the day on Monday although humidity values will gradually
increase.

Clouds/weather: Areas of smoke will be a concern this morning and
into the afternoon as the wildfires remain active. The Wolverine
fire near Lake Chelan will be the main culprit although other
smaller fires especially near the Canadian border will add to the
smokey haze. High clouds will be on the increase today as cirrus
rotates in from the southwest. This moisture is associated with a
monsoonal fetch coming up from California. This moisture will
increase tonight especially across the Cascades and could squeeze
a few sprinkles. A weak disturbance in the moist southwest flow
will ripple up the Cascades Monday morning with a small chance of
elevated convection and more sprinkles. As the upper trough drops
across B.C., this will push the disturbance and moisture band
across the Inland Northwest Monday afternoon and evening.
Instability will remain and this could generate more high based
thunderstorms across northeast Washington and north Idaho. There
looks to be a better chance of measurable precipitation across
north Idaho late Monday night, albeit it will still be light.
/rfox.

Tuesday and Wednesday: A 500mb low will reside over British
Columbia Tuesday and Wednesday. The evening runs of the GFS and
ECMWF are in decent agreement that the majority of eastern
Washington and north Idaho will be under the influence of dry
westerly flow Tuesday and Wednesday. However, there may be enough
cool cyclonic flow aloft along the Canadian border to allow the
formation of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
and Wednesday. A 20-30 percent chance for showers and
thunderstorms has also been retained for the Idaho Panhandle
mountains along the Montana border Tuesday, but the evening models
have trended quicker pushing moisture out of the Panhandle. If
this trend continues, Tuesday will be a dry day for most of the
Panhandle. Tuesday and Wednesday look breezy with sustained 10 to
15 mph common across the Basin, Palouse and Spokane area. Gusts to
20 mph will be likely in the afternoon with localized gusts in the
25 to 30 mph range through the Cascasde gaps during the early
evening hours. Even though temperatures will be trending down
Tuesday and Wednesday, wind and low relative humidity levels could
be a concern given the exceedingly dry conditions following the
heat of the weekend.

Thursday through Saturday: It is hard to get too excited about
chances for showers Thursday through Saturday. (Though....some of
us will be excited about the cooler, more seasonal temperatures.)
With the departure of the 500mb low out of British Columbia
Thursday night, the Pacific Northwest will be under a flat
westerly flow Thursday and Friday. The persistent on-shore flow
should bring a gradual increase in our surface dewpoints Thursday
through Saturday, but probably not enough to produce much
instability. There is a hint of a weak shorwave trough on
Saturday, so a 20 percent chance of mountain showers and
thunderstorms enters ther forecast Saturday afternoon. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Areas of smoke will be a concern for some of the TAF
sites in the next 24 hours, especially for KMWH where the
norther winds advect lcl MVFR conditions over the site. Expect
some improvement this afternoon with daytime mixing and westerly
winds. Otherwise smoke will be either high level or cause local
MVFR vsbys. Mid and high level clouds will increase through the
period. Winds should remain under 10kt this afternoon but local
higher gusts are possible. Downslope gap winds will increase after
02z especially in KEAT where speeds will reach around 14kt. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  95  66  87  59 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  59  97  61  87  56 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Pullman        98  56  93  58  86  53 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      104  68  99  68  93  63 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville      100  57  98  59  89  55 /   0   0  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      96  52  97  54  83  52 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Kellogg        96  58  96  60  84  54 /   0   0   0  30  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  97  62  93  59 /  10   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee     101  73  97  68  92  65 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Omak          100  68  97  63  92  59 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 021142
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
442 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Another hot and smokey day will be on tap today with triple digit
heat over much of central and southeast Washington. The ongoing
drought combined with high heat and low humidity will contribute
to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest. Temperatures
on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an increase in
clouds. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures and locally breezy
winds are expected Tuesday through Friday following the arrival
of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday night: Expect one more hot and dry day
today, then expect conditions to gradually moisten up and cool
slightly. The ridge of high pressure will stay firm over the
Inland Northwest today as the surface trough spans from the
Columbia Basin to north Idaho. This ridge is expected to shift
east tonight into Monday as an upper trough of low pressure swings
down across B.C. This will enhance a moist southwest flow and
advect moisture and clouds into the region.

Temperatures: Only a degree or two change in temperatures is
expected today as low levels remain warm. It will be another hot
and unstable day. This could make current wildfire more active
once again. Could see a few near record highs, today in Moses
Lake, Plain, Stehekin and Omak. The heat advisory will continue
for another day in the LC valley as daytime temperatures top out
from 93 to 103. Monday`s temperatures will cool a few more degrees
with mainly 90s expected.

Winds/humidity: Downslope Cascade gap winds will be another
concern today especially with the extremely dry humidity levels,
from the upper single digits to mid teens. Wind speeds will
lighten up this morning and could see some terrain driven
upslope/up valley winds in sheltered valleys. Surface pressure
gradients are expected to tighten to about 4-5 mb this afternoon
and should see a repeat of gusty gap winds into the evening across
the Cascade valleys, but speeds don`t look to be as strong as
those on Saturday. Some local afternoon gusts of 15 mph are also
possible across the Columbia Basin as the dry and unstable
atmosphere mixes. Northwest to westerly winds will prevail for
much of the day on Monday although humidity values will gradually
increase.

Clouds/weather: Areas of smoke will be a concern this morning and
into the afternoon as the wildfires remain active. The Wolverine
fire near Lake Chelan will be the main culprit although other
smaller fires especially near the Canadian border will add to the
smokey haze. High clouds will be on the increase today as cirrus
rotates in from the southwest. This moisture is associated with a
monsoonal fetch coming up from California. This moisture will
increase tonight especially across the Cascades and could squeeze
a few sprinkles. A weak disturbance in the moist southwest flow
will ripple up the Cascades Monday morning with a small chance of
elevated convection and more sprinkles. As the upper trough drops
across B.C., this will push the disturbance and moisture band
across the Inland Northwest Monday afternoon and evening.
Instability will remain and this could generate more high based
thunderstorms across northeast Washington and north Idaho. There
looks to be a better chance of measurable precipitation across
north Idaho late Monday night, albeit it will still be light.
/rfox.

Tuesday and Wednesday: A 500mb low will reside over British
Columbia Tuesday and Wednesday. The evening runs of the GFS and
ECMWF are in decent agreement that the majority of eastern
Washington and north Idaho will be under the influence of dry
westerly flow Tuesday and Wednesday. However, there may be enough
cool cyclonic flow aloft along the Canadian border to allow the
formation of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
and Wednesday. A 20-30 percent chance for showers and
thunderstorms has also been retained for the Idaho Panhandle
mountains along the Montana border Tuesday, but the evening models
have trended quicker pushing moisture out of the Panhandle. If
this trend continues, Tuesday will be a dry day for most of the
Panhandle. Tuesday and Wednesday look breezy with sustained 10 to
15 mph common across the Basin, Palouse and Spokane area. Gusts to
20 mph will be likely in the afternoon with localized gusts in the
25 to 30 mph range through the Cascasde gaps during the early
evening hours. Even though temperatures will be trending down
Tuesday and Wednesday, wind and low relative humidity levels could
be a concern given the exceedingly dry conditions following the
heat of the weekend.

Thursday through Saturday: It is hard to get too excited about
chances for showers Thursday through Saturday. (Though....some of
us will be excited about the cooler, more seasonal temperatures.)
With the departure of the 500mb low out of British Columbia
Thursday night, the Pacific Northwest will be under a flat
westerly flow Thursday and Friday. The persistent on-shore flow
should bring a gradual increase in our surface dewpoints Thursday
through Saturday, but probably not enough to produce much
instability. There is a hint of a weak shorwave trough on
Saturday, so a 20 percent chance of mountain showers and
thunderstorms enters ther forecast Saturday afternoon. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Areas of smoke will be a concern for some of the TAF
sites in the next 24 hours, especially for KMWH where the
norther winds advect lcl MVFR conditions over the site. Expect
some improvement this afternoon with daytime mixing and westerly
winds. Otherwise smoke will be either high level or cause local
MVFR vsbys. Mid and high level clouds will increase through the
period. Winds should remain under 10kt this afternoon but local
higher gusts are possible. Downslope gap winds will increase after
02z especially in KEAT where speeds will reach around 14kt. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  95  66  87  59 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  59  97  61  87  56 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Pullman        98  56  93  58  86  53 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      104  68  99  68  93  63 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville      100  57  98  59  89  55 /   0   0  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      96  52  97  54  83  52 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Kellogg        96  58  96  60  84  54 /   0   0   0  30  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  97  62  93  59 /  10   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee     101  73  97  68  92  65 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Omak          100  68  97  63  92  59 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 021142
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
442 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Another hot and smokey day will be on tap today with triple digit
heat over much of central and southeast Washington. The ongoing
drought combined with high heat and low humidity will contribute
to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest. Temperatures
on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an increase in
clouds. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures and locally breezy
winds are expected Tuesday through Friday following the arrival
of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday night: Expect one more hot and dry day
today, then expect conditions to gradually moisten up and cool
slightly. The ridge of high pressure will stay firm over the
Inland Northwest today as the surface trough spans from the
Columbia Basin to north Idaho. This ridge is expected to shift
east tonight into Monday as an upper trough of low pressure swings
down across B.C. This will enhance a moist southwest flow and
advect moisture and clouds into the region.

Temperatures: Only a degree or two change in temperatures is
expected today as low levels remain warm. It will be another hot
and unstable day. This could make current wildfire more active
once again. Could see a few near record highs, today in Moses
Lake, Plain, Stehekin and Omak. The heat advisory will continue
for another day in the LC valley as daytime temperatures top out
from 93 to 103. Monday`s temperatures will cool a few more degrees
with mainly 90s expected.

Winds/humidity: Downslope Cascade gap winds will be another
concern today especially with the extremely dry humidity levels,
from the upper single digits to mid teens. Wind speeds will
lighten up this morning and could see some terrain driven
upslope/up valley winds in sheltered valleys. Surface pressure
gradients are expected to tighten to about 4-5 mb this afternoon
and should see a repeat of gusty gap winds into the evening across
the Cascade valleys, but speeds don`t look to be as strong as
those on Saturday. Some local afternoon gusts of 15 mph are also
possible across the Columbia Basin as the dry and unstable
atmosphere mixes. Northwest to westerly winds will prevail for
much of the day on Monday although humidity values will gradually
increase.

Clouds/weather: Areas of smoke will be a concern this morning and
into the afternoon as the wildfires remain active. The Wolverine
fire near Lake Chelan will be the main culprit although other
smaller fires especially near the Canadian border will add to the
smokey haze. High clouds will be on the increase today as cirrus
rotates in from the southwest. This moisture is associated with a
monsoonal fetch coming up from California. This moisture will
increase tonight especially across the Cascades and could squeeze
a few sprinkles. A weak disturbance in the moist southwest flow
will ripple up the Cascades Monday morning with a small chance of
elevated convection and more sprinkles. As the upper trough drops
across B.C., this will push the disturbance and moisture band
across the Inland Northwest Monday afternoon and evening.
Instability will remain and this could generate more high based
thunderstorms across northeast Washington and north Idaho. There
looks to be a better chance of measurable precipitation across
north Idaho late Monday night, albeit it will still be light.
/rfox.

Tuesday and Wednesday: A 500mb low will reside over British
Columbia Tuesday and Wednesday. The evening runs of the GFS and
ECMWF are in decent agreement that the majority of eastern
Washington and north Idaho will be under the influence of dry
westerly flow Tuesday and Wednesday. However, there may be enough
cool cyclonic flow aloft along the Canadian border to allow the
formation of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
and Wednesday. A 20-30 percent chance for showers and
thunderstorms has also been retained for the Idaho Panhandle
mountains along the Montana border Tuesday, but the evening models
have trended quicker pushing moisture out of the Panhandle. If
this trend continues, Tuesday will be a dry day for most of the
Panhandle. Tuesday and Wednesday look breezy with sustained 10 to
15 mph common across the Basin, Palouse and Spokane area. Gusts to
20 mph will be likely in the afternoon with localized gusts in the
25 to 30 mph range through the Cascasde gaps during the early
evening hours. Even though temperatures will be trending down
Tuesday and Wednesday, wind and low relative humidity levels could
be a concern given the exceedingly dry conditions following the
heat of the weekend.

Thursday through Saturday: It is hard to get too excited about
chances for showers Thursday through Saturday. (Though....some of
us will be excited about the cooler, more seasonal temperatures.)
With the departure of the 500mb low out of British Columbia
Thursday night, the Pacific Northwest will be under a flat
westerly flow Thursday and Friday. The persistent on-shore flow
should bring a gradual increase in our surface dewpoints Thursday
through Saturday, but probably not enough to produce much
instability. There is a hint of a weak shorwave trough on
Saturday, so a 20 percent chance of mountain showers and
thunderstorms enters ther forecast Saturday afternoon. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Areas of smoke will be a concern for some of the TAF
sites in the next 24 hours, especially for KMWH where the
norther winds advect lcl MVFR conditions over the site. Expect
some improvement this afternoon with daytime mixing and westerly
winds. Otherwise smoke will be either high level or cause local
MVFR vsbys. Mid and high level clouds will increase through the
period. Winds should remain under 10kt this afternoon but local
higher gusts are possible. Downslope gap winds will increase after
02z especially in KEAT where speeds will reach around 14kt. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  95  66  87  59 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  59  97  61  87  56 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Pullman        98  56  93  58  86  53 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      104  68  99  68  93  63 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville      100  57  98  59  89  55 /   0   0  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      96  52  97  54  83  52 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Kellogg        96  58  96  60  84  54 /   0   0   0  30  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  97  62  93  59 /  10   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee     101  73  97  68  92  65 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Omak          100  68  97  63  92  59 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 021142
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
442 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Another hot and smokey day will be on tap today with triple digit
heat over much of central and southeast Washington. The ongoing
drought combined with high heat and low humidity will contribute
to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest. Temperatures
on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an increase in
clouds. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures and locally breezy
winds are expected Tuesday through Friday following the arrival
of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday night: Expect one more hot and dry day
today, then expect conditions to gradually moisten up and cool
slightly. The ridge of high pressure will stay firm over the
Inland Northwest today as the surface trough spans from the
Columbia Basin to north Idaho. This ridge is expected to shift
east tonight into Monday as an upper trough of low pressure swings
down across B.C. This will enhance a moist southwest flow and
advect moisture and clouds into the region.

Temperatures: Only a degree or two change in temperatures is
expected today as low levels remain warm. It will be another hot
and unstable day. This could make current wildfire more active
once again. Could see a few near record highs, today in Moses
Lake, Plain, Stehekin and Omak. The heat advisory will continue
for another day in the LC valley as daytime temperatures top out
from 93 to 103. Monday`s temperatures will cool a few more degrees
with mainly 90s expected.

Winds/humidity: Downslope Cascade gap winds will be another
concern today especially with the extremely dry humidity levels,
from the upper single digits to mid teens. Wind speeds will
lighten up this morning and could see some terrain driven
upslope/up valley winds in sheltered valleys. Surface pressure
gradients are expected to tighten to about 4-5 mb this afternoon
and should see a repeat of gusty gap winds into the evening across
the Cascade valleys, but speeds don`t look to be as strong as
those on Saturday. Some local afternoon gusts of 15 mph are also
possible across the Columbia Basin as the dry and unstable
atmosphere mixes. Northwest to westerly winds will prevail for
much of the day on Monday although humidity values will gradually
increase.

Clouds/weather: Areas of smoke will be a concern this morning and
into the afternoon as the wildfires remain active. The Wolverine
fire near Lake Chelan will be the main culprit although other
smaller fires especially near the Canadian border will add to the
smokey haze. High clouds will be on the increase today as cirrus
rotates in from the southwest. This moisture is associated with a
monsoonal fetch coming up from California. This moisture will
increase tonight especially across the Cascades and could squeeze
a few sprinkles. A weak disturbance in the moist southwest flow
will ripple up the Cascades Monday morning with a small chance of
elevated convection and more sprinkles. As the upper trough drops
across B.C., this will push the disturbance and moisture band
across the Inland Northwest Monday afternoon and evening.
Instability will remain and this could generate more high based
thunderstorms across northeast Washington and north Idaho. There
looks to be a better chance of measurable precipitation across
north Idaho late Monday night, albeit it will still be light.
/rfox.

Tuesday and Wednesday: A 500mb low will reside over British
Columbia Tuesday and Wednesday. The evening runs of the GFS and
ECMWF are in decent agreement that the majority of eastern
Washington and north Idaho will be under the influence of dry
westerly flow Tuesday and Wednesday. However, there may be enough
cool cyclonic flow aloft along the Canadian border to allow the
formation of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
and Wednesday. A 20-30 percent chance for showers and
thunderstorms has also been retained for the Idaho Panhandle
mountains along the Montana border Tuesday, but the evening models
have trended quicker pushing moisture out of the Panhandle. If
this trend continues, Tuesday will be a dry day for most of the
Panhandle. Tuesday and Wednesday look breezy with sustained 10 to
15 mph common across the Basin, Palouse and Spokane area. Gusts to
20 mph will be likely in the afternoon with localized gusts in the
25 to 30 mph range through the Cascasde gaps during the early
evening hours. Even though temperatures will be trending down
Tuesday and Wednesday, wind and low relative humidity levels could
be a concern given the exceedingly dry conditions following the
heat of the weekend.

Thursday through Saturday: It is hard to get too excited about
chances for showers Thursday through Saturday. (Though....some of
us will be excited about the cooler, more seasonal temperatures.)
With the departure of the 500mb low out of British Columbia
Thursday night, the Pacific Northwest will be under a flat
westerly flow Thursday and Friday. The persistent on-shore flow
should bring a gradual increase in our surface dewpoints Thursday
through Saturday, but probably not enough to produce much
instability. There is a hint of a weak shorwave trough on
Saturday, so a 20 percent chance of mountain showers and
thunderstorms enters ther forecast Saturday afternoon. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Areas of smoke will be a concern for some of the TAF
sites in the next 24 hours, especially for KMWH where the
norther winds advect lcl MVFR conditions over the site. Expect
some improvement this afternoon with daytime mixing and westerly
winds. Otherwise smoke will be either high level or cause local
MVFR vsbys. Mid and high level clouds will increase through the
period. Winds should remain under 10kt this afternoon but local
higher gusts are possible. Downslope gap winds will increase after
02z especially in KEAT where speeds will reach around 14kt. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  95  66  87  59 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  59  97  61  87  56 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Pullman        98  56  93  58  86  53 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      104  68  99  68  93  63 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville      100  57  98  59  89  55 /   0   0  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      96  52  97  54  83  52 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Kellogg        96  58  96  60  84  54 /   0   0   0  30  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  97  62  93  59 /  10   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee     101  73  97  68  92  65 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Omak          100  68  97  63  92  59 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 021142
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
442 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Another hot and smokey day will be on tap today with triple digit
heat over much of central and southeast Washington. The ongoing
drought combined with high heat and low humidity will contribute
to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest. Temperatures
on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an increase in
clouds. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures and locally breezy
winds are expected Tuesday through Friday following the arrival
of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday night: Expect one more hot and dry day
today, then expect conditions to gradually moisten up and cool
slightly. The ridge of high pressure will stay firm over the
Inland Northwest today as the surface trough spans from the
Columbia Basin to north Idaho. This ridge is expected to shift
east tonight into Monday as an upper trough of low pressure swings
down across B.C. This will enhance a moist southwest flow and
advect moisture and clouds into the region.

Temperatures: Only a degree or two change in temperatures is
expected today as low levels remain warm. It will be another hot
and unstable day. This could make current wildfire more active
once again. Could see a few near record highs, today in Moses
Lake, Plain, Stehekin and Omak. The heat advisory will continue
for another day in the LC valley as daytime temperatures top out
from 93 to 103. Monday`s temperatures will cool a few more degrees
with mainly 90s expected.

Winds/humidity: Downslope Cascade gap winds will be another
concern today especially with the extremely dry humidity levels,
from the upper single digits to mid teens. Wind speeds will
lighten up this morning and could see some terrain driven
upslope/up valley winds in sheltered valleys. Surface pressure
gradients are expected to tighten to about 4-5 mb this afternoon
and should see a repeat of gusty gap winds into the evening across
the Cascade valleys, but speeds don`t look to be as strong as
those on Saturday. Some local afternoon gusts of 15 mph are also
possible across the Columbia Basin as the dry and unstable
atmosphere mixes. Northwest to westerly winds will prevail for
much of the day on Monday although humidity values will gradually
increase.

Clouds/weather: Areas of smoke will be a concern this morning and
into the afternoon as the wildfires remain active. The Wolverine
fire near Lake Chelan will be the main culprit although other
smaller fires especially near the Canadian border will add to the
smokey haze. High clouds will be on the increase today as cirrus
rotates in from the southwest. This moisture is associated with a
monsoonal fetch coming up from California. This moisture will
increase tonight especially across the Cascades and could squeeze
a few sprinkles. A weak disturbance in the moist southwest flow
will ripple up the Cascades Monday morning with a small chance of
elevated convection and more sprinkles. As the upper trough drops
across B.C., this will push the disturbance and moisture band
across the Inland Northwest Monday afternoon and evening.
Instability will remain and this could generate more high based
thunderstorms across northeast Washington and north Idaho. There
looks to be a better chance of measurable precipitation across
north Idaho late Monday night, albeit it will still be light.
/rfox.

Tuesday and Wednesday: A 500mb low will reside over British
Columbia Tuesday and Wednesday. The evening runs of the GFS and
ECMWF are in decent agreement that the majority of eastern
Washington and north Idaho will be under the influence of dry
westerly flow Tuesday and Wednesday. However, there may be enough
cool cyclonic flow aloft along the Canadian border to allow the
formation of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
and Wednesday. A 20-30 percent chance for showers and
thunderstorms has also been retained for the Idaho Panhandle
mountains along the Montana border Tuesday, but the evening models
have trended quicker pushing moisture out of the Panhandle. If
this trend continues, Tuesday will be a dry day for most of the
Panhandle. Tuesday and Wednesday look breezy with sustained 10 to
15 mph common across the Basin, Palouse and Spokane area. Gusts to
20 mph will be likely in the afternoon with localized gusts in the
25 to 30 mph range through the Cascasde gaps during the early
evening hours. Even though temperatures will be trending down
Tuesday and Wednesday, wind and low relative humidity levels could
be a concern given the exceedingly dry conditions following the
heat of the weekend.

Thursday through Saturday: It is hard to get too excited about
chances for showers Thursday through Saturday. (Though....some of
us will be excited about the cooler, more seasonal temperatures.)
With the departure of the 500mb low out of British Columbia
Thursday night, the Pacific Northwest will be under a flat
westerly flow Thursday and Friday. The persistent on-shore flow
should bring a gradual increase in our surface dewpoints Thursday
through Saturday, but probably not enough to produce much
instability. There is a hint of a weak shorwave trough on
Saturday, so a 20 percent chance of mountain showers and
thunderstorms enters ther forecast Saturday afternoon. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Areas of smoke will be a concern for some of the TAF
sites in the next 24 hours, especially for KMWH where the
norther winds advect lcl MVFR conditions over the site. Expect
some improvement this afternoon with daytime mixing and westerly
winds. Otherwise smoke will be either high level or cause local
MVFR vsbys. Mid and high level clouds will increase through the
period. Winds should remain under 10kt this afternoon but local
higher gusts are possible. Downslope gap winds will increase after
02z especially in KEAT where speeds will reach around 14kt. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  95  66  87  59 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  59  97  61  87  56 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Pullman        98  56  93  58  86  53 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      104  68  99  68  93  63 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville      100  57  98  59  89  55 /   0   0  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      96  52  97  54  83  52 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Kellogg        96  58  96  60  84  54 /   0   0   0  30  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  97  62  93  59 /  10   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee     101  73  97  68  92  65 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Omak          100  68  97  63  92  59 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 021142
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
442 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Another hot and smokey day will be on tap today with triple digit
heat over much of central and southeast Washington. The ongoing
drought combined with high heat and low humidity will contribute
to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest. Temperatures
on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an increase in
clouds. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures and locally breezy
winds are expected Tuesday through Friday following the arrival
of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday night: Expect one more hot and dry day
today, then expect conditions to gradually moisten up and cool
slightly. The ridge of high pressure will stay firm over the
Inland Northwest today as the surface trough spans from the
Columbia Basin to north Idaho. This ridge is expected to shift
east tonight into Monday as an upper trough of low pressure swings
down across B.C. This will enhance a moist southwest flow and
advect moisture and clouds into the region.

Temperatures: Only a degree or two change in temperatures is
expected today as low levels remain warm. It will be another hot
and unstable day. This could make current wildfire more active
once again. Could see a few near record highs, today in Moses
Lake, Plain, Stehekin and Omak. The heat advisory will continue
for another day in the LC valley as daytime temperatures top out
from 93 to 103. Monday`s temperatures will cool a few more degrees
with mainly 90s expected.

Winds/humidity: Downslope Cascade gap winds will be another
concern today especially with the extremely dry humidity levels,
from the upper single digits to mid teens. Wind speeds will
lighten up this morning and could see some terrain driven
upslope/up valley winds in sheltered valleys. Surface pressure
gradients are expected to tighten to about 4-5 mb this afternoon
and should see a repeat of gusty gap winds into the evening across
the Cascade valleys, but speeds don`t look to be as strong as
those on Saturday. Some local afternoon gusts of 15 mph are also
possible across the Columbia Basin as the dry and unstable
atmosphere mixes. Northwest to westerly winds will prevail for
much of the day on Monday although humidity values will gradually
increase.

Clouds/weather: Areas of smoke will be a concern this morning and
into the afternoon as the wildfires remain active. The Wolverine
fire near Lake Chelan will be the main culprit although other
smaller fires especially near the Canadian border will add to the
smokey haze. High clouds will be on the increase today as cirrus
rotates in from the southwest. This moisture is associated with a
monsoonal fetch coming up from California. This moisture will
increase tonight especially across the Cascades and could squeeze
a few sprinkles. A weak disturbance in the moist southwest flow
will ripple up the Cascades Monday morning with a small chance of
elevated convection and more sprinkles. As the upper trough drops
across B.C., this will push the disturbance and moisture band
across the Inland Northwest Monday afternoon and evening.
Instability will remain and this could generate more high based
thunderstorms across northeast Washington and north Idaho. There
looks to be a better chance of measurable precipitation across
north Idaho late Monday night, albeit it will still be light.
/rfox.

Tuesday and Wednesday: A 500mb low will reside over British
Columbia Tuesday and Wednesday. The evening runs of the GFS and
ECMWF are in decent agreement that the majority of eastern
Washington and north Idaho will be under the influence of dry
westerly flow Tuesday and Wednesday. However, there may be enough
cool cyclonic flow aloft along the Canadian border to allow the
formation of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
and Wednesday. A 20-30 percent chance for showers and
thunderstorms has also been retained for the Idaho Panhandle
mountains along the Montana border Tuesday, but the evening models
have trended quicker pushing moisture out of the Panhandle. If
this trend continues, Tuesday will be a dry day for most of the
Panhandle. Tuesday and Wednesday look breezy with sustained 10 to
15 mph common across the Basin, Palouse and Spokane area. Gusts to
20 mph will be likely in the afternoon with localized gusts in the
25 to 30 mph range through the Cascasde gaps during the early
evening hours. Even though temperatures will be trending down
Tuesday and Wednesday, wind and low relative humidity levels could
be a concern given the exceedingly dry conditions following the
heat of the weekend.

Thursday through Saturday: It is hard to get too excited about
chances for showers Thursday through Saturday. (Though....some of
us will be excited about the cooler, more seasonal temperatures.)
With the departure of the 500mb low out of British Columbia
Thursday night, the Pacific Northwest will be under a flat
westerly flow Thursday and Friday. The persistent on-shore flow
should bring a gradual increase in our surface dewpoints Thursday
through Saturday, but probably not enough to produce much
instability. There is a hint of a weak shorwave trough on
Saturday, so a 20 percent chance of mountain showers and
thunderstorms enters ther forecast Saturday afternoon. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Areas of smoke will be a concern for some of the TAF
sites in the next 24 hours, especially for KMWH where the
norther winds advect lcl MVFR conditions over the site. Expect
some improvement this afternoon with daytime mixing and westerly
winds. Otherwise smoke will be either high level or cause local
MVFR vsbys. Mid and high level clouds will increase through the
period. Winds should remain under 10kt this afternoon but local
higher gusts are possible. Downslope gap winds will increase after
02z especially in KEAT where speeds will reach around 14kt. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  95  66  87  59 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  59  97  61  87  56 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Pullman        98  56  93  58  86  53 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      104  68  99  68  93  63 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville      100  57  98  59  89  55 /   0   0  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      96  52  97  54  83  52 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Kellogg        96  58  96  60  84  54 /   0   0   0  30  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  97  62  93  59 /  10   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee     101  73  97  68  92  65 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Omak          100  68  97  63  92  59 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 021142
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
442 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Another hot and smokey day will be on tap today with triple digit
heat over much of central and southeast Washington. The ongoing
drought combined with high heat and low humidity will contribute
to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest. Temperatures
on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an increase in
clouds. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures and locally breezy
winds are expected Tuesday through Friday following the arrival
of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday night: Expect one more hot and dry day
today, then expect conditions to gradually moisten up and cool
slightly. The ridge of high pressure will stay firm over the
Inland Northwest today as the surface trough spans from the
Columbia Basin to north Idaho. This ridge is expected to shift
east tonight into Monday as an upper trough of low pressure swings
down across B.C. This will enhance a moist southwest flow and
advect moisture and clouds into the region.

Temperatures: Only a degree or two change in temperatures is
expected today as low levels remain warm. It will be another hot
and unstable day. This could make current wildfire more active
once again. Could see a few near record highs, today in Moses
Lake, Plain, Stehekin and Omak. The heat advisory will continue
for another day in the LC valley as daytime temperatures top out
from 93 to 103. Monday`s temperatures will cool a few more degrees
with mainly 90s expected.

Winds/humidity: Downslope Cascade gap winds will be another
concern today especially with the extremely dry humidity levels,
from the upper single digits to mid teens. Wind speeds will
lighten up this morning and could see some terrain driven
upslope/up valley winds in sheltered valleys. Surface pressure
gradients are expected to tighten to about 4-5 mb this afternoon
and should see a repeat of gusty gap winds into the evening across
the Cascade valleys, but speeds don`t look to be as strong as
those on Saturday. Some local afternoon gusts of 15 mph are also
possible across the Columbia Basin as the dry and unstable
atmosphere mixes. Northwest to westerly winds will prevail for
much of the day on Monday although humidity values will gradually
increase.

Clouds/weather: Areas of smoke will be a concern this morning and
into the afternoon as the wildfires remain active. The Wolverine
fire near Lake Chelan will be the main culprit although other
smaller fires especially near the Canadian border will add to the
smokey haze. High clouds will be on the increase today as cirrus
rotates in from the southwest. This moisture is associated with a
monsoonal fetch coming up from California. This moisture will
increase tonight especially across the Cascades and could squeeze
a few sprinkles. A weak disturbance in the moist southwest flow
will ripple up the Cascades Monday morning with a small chance of
elevated convection and more sprinkles. As the upper trough drops
across B.C., this will push the disturbance and moisture band
across the Inland Northwest Monday afternoon and evening.
Instability will remain and this could generate more high based
thunderstorms across northeast Washington and north Idaho. There
looks to be a better chance of measurable precipitation across
north Idaho late Monday night, albeit it will still be light.
/rfox.

Tuesday and Wednesday: A 500mb low will reside over British
Columbia Tuesday and Wednesday. The evening runs of the GFS and
ECMWF are in decent agreement that the majority of eastern
Washington and north Idaho will be under the influence of dry
westerly flow Tuesday and Wednesday. However, there may be enough
cool cyclonic flow aloft along the Canadian border to allow the
formation of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
and Wednesday. A 20-30 percent chance for showers and
thunderstorms has also been retained for the Idaho Panhandle
mountains along the Montana border Tuesday, but the evening models
have trended quicker pushing moisture out of the Panhandle. If
this trend continues, Tuesday will be a dry day for most of the
Panhandle. Tuesday and Wednesday look breezy with sustained 10 to
15 mph common across the Basin, Palouse and Spokane area. Gusts to
20 mph will be likely in the afternoon with localized gusts in the
25 to 30 mph range through the Cascasde gaps during the early
evening hours. Even though temperatures will be trending down
Tuesday and Wednesday, wind and low relative humidity levels could
be a concern given the exceedingly dry conditions following the
heat of the weekend.

Thursday through Saturday: It is hard to get too excited about
chances for showers Thursday through Saturday. (Though....some of
us will be excited about the cooler, more seasonal temperatures.)
With the departure of the 500mb low out of British Columbia
Thursday night, the Pacific Northwest will be under a flat
westerly flow Thursday and Friday. The persistent on-shore flow
should bring a gradual increase in our surface dewpoints Thursday
through Saturday, but probably not enough to produce much
instability. There is a hint of a weak shorwave trough on
Saturday, so a 20 percent chance of mountain showers and
thunderstorms enters ther forecast Saturday afternoon. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Areas of smoke will be a concern for some of the TAF
sites in the next 24 hours, especially for KMWH where the
norther winds advect lcl MVFR conditions over the site. Expect
some improvement this afternoon with daytime mixing and westerly
winds. Otherwise smoke will be either high level or cause local
MVFR vsbys. Mid and high level clouds will increase through the
period. Winds should remain under 10kt this afternoon but local
higher gusts are possible. Downslope gap winds will increase after
02z especially in KEAT where speeds will reach around 14kt. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  95  66  87  59 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  59  97  61  87  56 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Pullman        98  56  93  58  86  53 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      104  68  99  68  93  63 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville      100  57  98  59  89  55 /   0   0  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      96  52  97  54  83  52 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Kellogg        96  58  96  60  84  54 /   0   0   0  30  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  97  62  93  59 /  10   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee     101  73  97  68  92  65 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Omak          100  68  97  63  92  59 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 021048
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST TODAY...THEN WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID
WEEK. WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND ALSO TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE PROVIDING THE RECENT STRETCH OF
DRY AND HOT WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY. SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE NEARLY FLAT THIS
MORNING WITH A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY IN OREGON NORTH THROUGH THE SW INTERIOR OF WA
OVER THE OLYMPICS. LIGHT OR WEAK OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
E OF THE LOW AXIS TODAY WITH SEA-BREEZE AFFECTS HINDERING POTENTIAL
HIGHS JUST A BIT NEAR THE WATER. 500 MB HEIGHTS DROP ABOUT 20M FROM
YESTERDAY BUT WITHOUT A DECENT ONSHORE PUSH...TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO TOP OUT CLOSE TO YESTERDAY`S HIGHS. TEMPERATURES WERE
NUDGED HIGHER BY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS WHICH
HAS PERFORMED BETTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND IS
THE WARMEST OF THE BUNCH FOR TODAY. IF SEA-TAC MANAGES TO HIT 90
DEGREES TODAY IT WILL AGAIN TIE THE RECORD FOR 5 CONSECUTIVE 90+
DEGREE DAYS FOR THE SECOND TIME THIS SUMMER.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY SHIFT E OF OUR
AREA OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES BY MONDAY. WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO FALL TONIGHT...MOST MODELS SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
ONSHORE FLOW OVER INTERIOR WRN WA RATHER THAN A SOLID STRONG ONSHORE
PUSH. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOW STRATUS MAKING A DEBUT IN THE STRAIT
AND AREAS NEAR THE E ENTRANCE...AND ALSO THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP.
WHILE SOME MARINE AIR FILTERS FURTHER INLAND...IT APPEARS LOW CLOUDS
MAY HOLD OFF OVER MUCH OF PUGET SOUND UNTIL A STRONGER ONSHORE PUSH
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER GIVEN THE
PARTIAL INTRODUCTION OF MARINE AIR AND LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS. HIGHS
WILL STAY IN THE 70S NEAR THE COAST AND UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR.

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTING DETECTION SHOWS A LINE OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST THIS MORNING EMBEDDED
IN SLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE WILL REACH WRN WA. THE
CURRENT FLOW AT 700 MB IS MORE SWLY ACROSS WRN WA WITH LIGHT WLY
FLOW AT 500 FLOW. WHILE MODELS INSIST SOME OF THIS MOISTURE REACHES
THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE FLOW PATTERN IS NOT ALL THAT
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS W OF THE CREST. REGARDLESS...THE
GFS/ECWMF DO STILL SHOW SOME LIGHT SPOTTY QPF ALONG THE CASCADE
CREST LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE
MORE LIKELY.

THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES
ACROSS WRN WA ON TUESDAY WITH DECENT HEIGHT FALLS. A STRONG ONSHORE
PUSH WILL DEVELOP LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUE TUESDAY. THIS MAY BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH SOLID MORNING CLOUDS...MOSTLY BURNING
OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PAC NW WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EWD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
MUCH LESS MOISTURE SO THERE IS LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION OVER
THE AREA. LEFT THE SHOWERS IN OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT IF ANY RAIN
DOES FALL IT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL AGAIN TOP OUT MOSTLY IN
THE 70S.

MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO VARY MORE STARTING THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
TREND IS TOWARD WEAK RIDGING. THIS MAY BE TRANSITORY BUT THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. THIS MAY CARRY OVER INTO FRIDAY BUT ANOTHER
TROUGH MAY APPROACH THE REGION AND THE AFFECTS COULD BEGIN TO BE
FELT FRIDAY OR OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY START TO MODERATE BY SAT
URDAY...FALLING BACK TO THE 70S OR LOW 80S...WHICH IS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THIS
NEXT WEEKEND IS LOW.  MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY WITH LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT. THE RIDGE IS MOVING E AND
ON MONDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
BE MOVING OVER CENTRAL B.C.

THE AIR MASS OVER W WA WILL REMAIN DRY AND VERY WARM AGAIN
TODAY...WITH THE DENSITY ALTITUDE HIGHER THAN NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVER THE AREA TODAY...REMNANTS OF
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. AS OF 3 AM STRATUS HAD NOT YET FORMED OVER
W WA ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL TIME FOR PATCHY IFR STRATUS TO FORM
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE STRAIT. OTHERWISE GOOD VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

KSEA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY FOR GOOD VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE NE 3-7 KT THROUGH 18Z THEN SHIFT NW 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. KAM

&&

.MARINE...AN OFFSHORE SURFACE RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURE
OVER E WA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE GFS INDICATES THE UIL-BLI PRESSURE GRADIENT
TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS LAST NIGHT...AND THE CANADIAN LAM
MODEL KEEPS WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. I WILL STICK WITH A HIGH
END SCA TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE OF A BRIEF GALE AT RACE ROCKS
CAN NEVER BE RULED OUT.

BORDERLINE SCA NW WINDS OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT SO THE SCA WAS EXTENDED. SCA NW WINDS ALSO
DEVELOPED OVER THE INNER COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND SOUTHWARD
LAST EVENING...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THAT WILL REPEAT AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS.

STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST. THERE IS A
HIGH PROBABILITY OF A GALE IN THE CENTRAL AND E STRAIT. THE GFS HAS
A 4.4 MB UIL-BLI PRESSURE GRADIENT AT 00Z...THE CANADIAN LAM MODEL
SHOWS GALE FORCE WINDS...AND THE U.S. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW SOLID
SCA WINDS.

THE GFS SHOWS PRETTY GOOD ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING PAST MID WEEK SO
AT THE VERY LEAST SCA W WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE STRAIT...WITH A
CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS AT TIMES. KAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED...RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED.
HOWEVER...IT JUST MEANS THAT WEATHER WILL BE LESS OF AN AGGRAVATING
FACTOR IN THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT. BACKGROUND FIRE DANGER WILL STILL BE
ELEVATED DUE TO DRY FUELS.

THE NEW WRINKLE IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST IS THE INTRODUCTION OF
ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING TO THE CASCADES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP AND BRING NORTH THE NEEDED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. TODAY`S
MODELS CAME AROUND TO SHOWING THE CASCADES AT THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF
A LARGER-SCALE LIGHTNING RISK AREA. THE FIRST THREAT OVER THE
CASCADES WILL BE FROM HIGH-BASED NOCTURNAL CONVECTION THAT COULD
BRING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING TO THE CASCADES FROM MOUNT RAINIER ON
SOUTH IN THE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY. THE LIGHTNING THREAT
WILL REACH THE NORTH CASCADES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN END ON
MONDAY EVENING. A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND THE STEADY FORWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS IS A RECIPE FOR SUB-WETTING RAINS WITH ANY
STORMS. HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR PARTS
     OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND TWO SOUTHERN
     INNER COASTAL WATERS ZONES...CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE
     FUCA...EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 021048
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST TODAY...THEN WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID
WEEK. WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND ALSO TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE PROVIDING THE RECENT STRETCH OF
DRY AND HOT WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY. SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE NEARLY FLAT THIS
MORNING WITH A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY IN OREGON NORTH THROUGH THE SW INTERIOR OF WA
OVER THE OLYMPICS. LIGHT OR WEAK OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
E OF THE LOW AXIS TODAY WITH SEA-BREEZE AFFECTS HINDERING POTENTIAL
HIGHS JUST A BIT NEAR THE WATER. 500 MB HEIGHTS DROP ABOUT 20M FROM
YESTERDAY BUT WITHOUT A DECENT ONSHORE PUSH...TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO TOP OUT CLOSE TO YESTERDAY`S HIGHS. TEMPERATURES WERE
NUDGED HIGHER BY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS WHICH
HAS PERFORMED BETTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND IS
THE WARMEST OF THE BUNCH FOR TODAY. IF SEA-TAC MANAGES TO HIT 90
DEGREES TODAY IT WILL AGAIN TIE THE RECORD FOR 5 CONSECUTIVE 90+
DEGREE DAYS FOR THE SECOND TIME THIS SUMMER.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY SHIFT E OF OUR
AREA OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES BY MONDAY. WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO FALL TONIGHT...MOST MODELS SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
ONSHORE FLOW OVER INTERIOR WRN WA RATHER THAN A SOLID STRONG ONSHORE
PUSH. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOW STRATUS MAKING A DEBUT IN THE STRAIT
AND AREAS NEAR THE E ENTRANCE...AND ALSO THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP.
WHILE SOME MARINE AIR FILTERS FURTHER INLAND...IT APPEARS LOW CLOUDS
MAY HOLD OFF OVER MUCH OF PUGET SOUND UNTIL A STRONGER ONSHORE PUSH
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER GIVEN THE
PARTIAL INTRODUCTION OF MARINE AIR AND LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS. HIGHS
WILL STAY IN THE 70S NEAR THE COAST AND UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR.

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTING DETECTION SHOWS A LINE OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST THIS MORNING EMBEDDED
IN SLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE WILL REACH WRN WA. THE
CURRENT FLOW AT 700 MB IS MORE SWLY ACROSS WRN WA WITH LIGHT WLY
FLOW AT 500 FLOW. WHILE MODELS INSIST SOME OF THIS MOISTURE REACHES
THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE FLOW PATTERN IS NOT ALL THAT
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS W OF THE CREST. REGARDLESS...THE
GFS/ECWMF DO STILL SHOW SOME LIGHT SPOTTY QPF ALONG THE CASCADE
CREST LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE
MORE LIKELY.

THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES
ACROSS WRN WA ON TUESDAY WITH DECENT HEIGHT FALLS. A STRONG ONSHORE
PUSH WILL DEVELOP LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUE TUESDAY. THIS MAY BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH SOLID MORNING CLOUDS...MOSTLY BURNING
OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PAC NW WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EWD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
MUCH LESS MOISTURE SO THERE IS LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION OVER
THE AREA. LEFT THE SHOWERS IN OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT IF ANY RAIN
DOES FALL IT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL AGAIN TOP OUT MOSTLY IN
THE 70S.

MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO VARY MORE STARTING THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
TREND IS TOWARD WEAK RIDGING. THIS MAY BE TRANSITORY BUT THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. THIS MAY CARRY OVER INTO FRIDAY BUT ANOTHER
TROUGH MAY APPROACH THE REGION AND THE AFFECTS COULD BEGIN TO BE
FELT FRIDAY OR OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY START TO MODERATE BY SAT
URDAY...FALLING BACK TO THE 70S OR LOW 80S...WHICH IS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THIS
NEXT WEEKEND IS LOW.  MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY WITH LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT. THE RIDGE IS MOVING E AND
ON MONDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
BE MOVING OVER CENTRAL B.C.

THE AIR MASS OVER W WA WILL REMAIN DRY AND VERY WARM AGAIN
TODAY...WITH THE DENSITY ALTITUDE HIGHER THAN NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVER THE AREA TODAY...REMNANTS OF
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. AS OF 3 AM STRATUS HAD NOT YET FORMED OVER
W WA ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL TIME FOR PATCHY IFR STRATUS TO FORM
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE STRAIT. OTHERWISE GOOD VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

KSEA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY FOR GOOD VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE NE 3-7 KT THROUGH 18Z THEN SHIFT NW 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. KAM

&&

.MARINE...AN OFFSHORE SURFACE RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURE
OVER E WA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE GFS INDICATES THE UIL-BLI PRESSURE GRADIENT
TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS LAST NIGHT...AND THE CANADIAN LAM
MODEL KEEPS WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. I WILL STICK WITH A HIGH
END SCA TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE OF A BRIEF GALE AT RACE ROCKS
CAN NEVER BE RULED OUT.

BORDERLINE SCA NW WINDS OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT SO THE SCA WAS EXTENDED. SCA NW WINDS ALSO
DEVELOPED OVER THE INNER COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND SOUTHWARD
LAST EVENING...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THAT WILL REPEAT AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS.

STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST. THERE IS A
HIGH PROBABILITY OF A GALE IN THE CENTRAL AND E STRAIT. THE GFS HAS
A 4.4 MB UIL-BLI PRESSURE GRADIENT AT 00Z...THE CANADIAN LAM MODEL
SHOWS GALE FORCE WINDS...AND THE U.S. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW SOLID
SCA WINDS.

THE GFS SHOWS PRETTY GOOD ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING PAST MID WEEK SO
AT THE VERY LEAST SCA W WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE STRAIT...WITH A
CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS AT TIMES. KAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED...RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED.
HOWEVER...IT JUST MEANS THAT WEATHER WILL BE LESS OF AN AGGRAVATING
FACTOR IN THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT. BACKGROUND FIRE DANGER WILL STILL BE
ELEVATED DUE TO DRY FUELS.

THE NEW WRINKLE IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST IS THE INTRODUCTION OF
ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING TO THE CASCADES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP AND BRING NORTH THE NEEDED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. TODAY`S
MODELS CAME AROUND TO SHOWING THE CASCADES AT THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF
A LARGER-SCALE LIGHTNING RISK AREA. THE FIRST THREAT OVER THE
CASCADES WILL BE FROM HIGH-BASED NOCTURNAL CONVECTION THAT COULD
BRING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING TO THE CASCADES FROM MOUNT RAINIER ON
SOUTH IN THE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY. THE LIGHTNING THREAT
WILL REACH THE NORTH CASCADES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN END ON
MONDAY EVENING. A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND THE STEADY FORWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS IS A RECIPE FOR SUB-WETTING RAINS WITH ANY
STORMS. HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR PARTS
     OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND TWO SOUTHERN
     INNER COASTAL WATERS ZONES...CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE
     FUCA...EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KSEW 021048
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST TODAY...THEN WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID
WEEK. WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND ALSO TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE PROVIDING THE RECENT STRETCH OF
DRY AND HOT WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY. SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE NEARLY FLAT THIS
MORNING WITH A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY IN OREGON NORTH THROUGH THE SW INTERIOR OF WA
OVER THE OLYMPICS. LIGHT OR WEAK OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
E OF THE LOW AXIS TODAY WITH SEA-BREEZE AFFECTS HINDERING POTENTIAL
HIGHS JUST A BIT NEAR THE WATER. 500 MB HEIGHTS DROP ABOUT 20M FROM
YESTERDAY BUT WITHOUT A DECENT ONSHORE PUSH...TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO TOP OUT CLOSE TO YESTERDAY`S HIGHS. TEMPERATURES WERE
NUDGED HIGHER BY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS WHICH
HAS PERFORMED BETTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND IS
THE WARMEST OF THE BUNCH FOR TODAY. IF SEA-TAC MANAGES TO HIT 90
DEGREES TODAY IT WILL AGAIN TIE THE RECORD FOR 5 CONSECUTIVE 90+
DEGREE DAYS FOR THE SECOND TIME THIS SUMMER.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY SHIFT E OF OUR
AREA OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES BY MONDAY. WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO FALL TONIGHT...MOST MODELS SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
ONSHORE FLOW OVER INTERIOR WRN WA RATHER THAN A SOLID STRONG ONSHORE
PUSH. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOW STRATUS MAKING A DEBUT IN THE STRAIT
AND AREAS NEAR THE E ENTRANCE...AND ALSO THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP.
WHILE SOME MARINE AIR FILTERS FURTHER INLAND...IT APPEARS LOW CLOUDS
MAY HOLD OFF OVER MUCH OF PUGET SOUND UNTIL A STRONGER ONSHORE PUSH
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER GIVEN THE
PARTIAL INTRODUCTION OF MARINE AIR AND LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS. HIGHS
WILL STAY IN THE 70S NEAR THE COAST AND UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR.

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTING DETECTION SHOWS A LINE OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST THIS MORNING EMBEDDED
IN SLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE WILL REACH WRN WA. THE
CURRENT FLOW AT 700 MB IS MORE SWLY ACROSS WRN WA WITH LIGHT WLY
FLOW AT 500 FLOW. WHILE MODELS INSIST SOME OF THIS MOISTURE REACHES
THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE FLOW PATTERN IS NOT ALL THAT
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS W OF THE CREST. REGARDLESS...THE
GFS/ECWMF DO STILL SHOW SOME LIGHT SPOTTY QPF ALONG THE CASCADE
CREST LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE
MORE LIKELY.

THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES
ACROSS WRN WA ON TUESDAY WITH DECENT HEIGHT FALLS. A STRONG ONSHORE
PUSH WILL DEVELOP LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUE TUESDAY. THIS MAY BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH SOLID MORNING CLOUDS...MOSTLY BURNING
OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PAC NW WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EWD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
MUCH LESS MOISTURE SO THERE IS LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION OVER
THE AREA. LEFT THE SHOWERS IN OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT IF ANY RAIN
DOES FALL IT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL AGAIN TOP OUT MOSTLY IN
THE 70S.

MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO VARY MORE STARTING THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
TREND IS TOWARD WEAK RIDGING. THIS MAY BE TRANSITORY BUT THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. THIS MAY CARRY OVER INTO FRIDAY BUT ANOTHER
TROUGH MAY APPROACH THE REGION AND THE AFFECTS COULD BEGIN TO BE
FELT FRIDAY OR OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY START TO MODERATE BY SAT
URDAY...FALLING BACK TO THE 70S OR LOW 80S...WHICH IS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THIS
NEXT WEEKEND IS LOW.  MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY WITH LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT. THE RIDGE IS MOVING E AND
ON MONDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
BE MOVING OVER CENTRAL B.C.

THE AIR MASS OVER W WA WILL REMAIN DRY AND VERY WARM AGAIN
TODAY...WITH THE DENSITY ALTITUDE HIGHER THAN NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVER THE AREA TODAY...REMNANTS OF
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. AS OF 3 AM STRATUS HAD NOT YET FORMED OVER
W WA ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL TIME FOR PATCHY IFR STRATUS TO FORM
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE STRAIT. OTHERWISE GOOD VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

KSEA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY FOR GOOD VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE NE 3-7 KT THROUGH 18Z THEN SHIFT NW 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. KAM

&&

.MARINE...AN OFFSHORE SURFACE RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURE
OVER E WA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE GFS INDICATES THE UIL-BLI PRESSURE GRADIENT
TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS LAST NIGHT...AND THE CANADIAN LAM
MODEL KEEPS WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. I WILL STICK WITH A HIGH
END SCA TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE OF A BRIEF GALE AT RACE ROCKS
CAN NEVER BE RULED OUT.

BORDERLINE SCA NW WINDS OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT SO THE SCA WAS EXTENDED. SCA NW WINDS ALSO
DEVELOPED OVER THE INNER COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND SOUTHWARD
LAST EVENING...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THAT WILL REPEAT AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS.

STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST. THERE IS A
HIGH PROBABILITY OF A GALE IN THE CENTRAL AND E STRAIT. THE GFS HAS
A 4.4 MB UIL-BLI PRESSURE GRADIENT AT 00Z...THE CANADIAN LAM MODEL
SHOWS GALE FORCE WINDS...AND THE U.S. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW SOLID
SCA WINDS.

THE GFS SHOWS PRETTY GOOD ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING PAST MID WEEK SO
AT THE VERY LEAST SCA W WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE STRAIT...WITH A
CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS AT TIMES. KAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED...RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED.
HOWEVER...IT JUST MEANS THAT WEATHER WILL BE LESS OF AN AGGRAVATING
FACTOR IN THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT. BACKGROUND FIRE DANGER WILL STILL BE
ELEVATED DUE TO DRY FUELS.

THE NEW WRINKLE IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST IS THE INTRODUCTION OF
ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING TO THE CASCADES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP AND BRING NORTH THE NEEDED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. TODAY`S
MODELS CAME AROUND TO SHOWING THE CASCADES AT THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF
A LARGER-SCALE LIGHTNING RISK AREA. THE FIRST THREAT OVER THE
CASCADES WILL BE FROM HIGH-BASED NOCTURNAL CONVECTION THAT COULD
BRING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING TO THE CASCADES FROM MOUNT RAINIER ON
SOUTH IN THE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY. THE LIGHTNING THREAT
WILL REACH THE NORTH CASCADES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN END ON
MONDAY EVENING. A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND THE STEADY FORWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS IS A RECIPE FOR SUB-WETTING RAINS WITH ANY
STORMS. HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR PARTS
     OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND TWO SOUTHERN
     INNER COASTAL WATERS ZONES...CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE
     FUCA...EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 021048
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST TODAY...THEN WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID
WEEK. WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND ALSO TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE PROVIDING THE RECENT STRETCH OF
DRY AND HOT WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY. SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE NEARLY FLAT THIS
MORNING WITH A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY IN OREGON NORTH THROUGH THE SW INTERIOR OF WA
OVER THE OLYMPICS. LIGHT OR WEAK OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
E OF THE LOW AXIS TODAY WITH SEA-BREEZE AFFECTS HINDERING POTENTIAL
HIGHS JUST A BIT NEAR THE WATER. 500 MB HEIGHTS DROP ABOUT 20M FROM
YESTERDAY BUT WITHOUT A DECENT ONSHORE PUSH...TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO TOP OUT CLOSE TO YESTERDAY`S HIGHS. TEMPERATURES WERE
NUDGED HIGHER BY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS WHICH
HAS PERFORMED BETTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND IS
THE WARMEST OF THE BUNCH FOR TODAY. IF SEA-TAC MANAGES TO HIT 90
DEGREES TODAY IT WILL AGAIN TIE THE RECORD FOR 5 CONSECUTIVE 90+
DEGREE DAYS FOR THE SECOND TIME THIS SUMMER.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY SHIFT E OF OUR
AREA OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES BY MONDAY. WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO FALL TONIGHT...MOST MODELS SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
ONSHORE FLOW OVER INTERIOR WRN WA RATHER THAN A SOLID STRONG ONSHORE
PUSH. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOW STRATUS MAKING A DEBUT IN THE STRAIT
AND AREAS NEAR THE E ENTRANCE...AND ALSO THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP.
WHILE SOME MARINE AIR FILTERS FURTHER INLAND...IT APPEARS LOW CLOUDS
MAY HOLD OFF OVER MUCH OF PUGET SOUND UNTIL A STRONGER ONSHORE PUSH
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER GIVEN THE
PARTIAL INTRODUCTION OF MARINE AIR AND LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS. HIGHS
WILL STAY IN THE 70S NEAR THE COAST AND UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR.

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTING DETECTION SHOWS A LINE OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST THIS MORNING EMBEDDED
IN SLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE WILL REACH WRN WA. THE
CURRENT FLOW AT 700 MB IS MORE SWLY ACROSS WRN WA WITH LIGHT WLY
FLOW AT 500 FLOW. WHILE MODELS INSIST SOME OF THIS MOISTURE REACHES
THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE FLOW PATTERN IS NOT ALL THAT
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS W OF THE CREST. REGARDLESS...THE
GFS/ECWMF DO STILL SHOW SOME LIGHT SPOTTY QPF ALONG THE CASCADE
CREST LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE
MORE LIKELY.

THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES
ACROSS WRN WA ON TUESDAY WITH DECENT HEIGHT FALLS. A STRONG ONSHORE
PUSH WILL DEVELOP LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUE TUESDAY. THIS MAY BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH SOLID MORNING CLOUDS...MOSTLY BURNING
OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PAC NW WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EWD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
MUCH LESS MOISTURE SO THERE IS LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION OVER
THE AREA. LEFT THE SHOWERS IN OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT IF ANY RAIN
DOES FALL IT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL AGAIN TOP OUT MOSTLY IN
THE 70S.

MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO VARY MORE STARTING THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
TREND IS TOWARD WEAK RIDGING. THIS MAY BE TRANSITORY BUT THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. THIS MAY CARRY OVER INTO FRIDAY BUT ANOTHER
TROUGH MAY APPROACH THE REGION AND THE AFFECTS COULD BEGIN TO BE
FELT FRIDAY OR OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY START TO MODERATE BY SAT
URDAY...FALLING BACK TO THE 70S OR LOW 80S...WHICH IS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THIS
NEXT WEEKEND IS LOW.  MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY WITH LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT. THE RIDGE IS MOVING E AND
ON MONDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
BE MOVING OVER CENTRAL B.C.

THE AIR MASS OVER W WA WILL REMAIN DRY AND VERY WARM AGAIN
TODAY...WITH THE DENSITY ALTITUDE HIGHER THAN NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVER THE AREA TODAY...REMNANTS OF
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. AS OF 3 AM STRATUS HAD NOT YET FORMED OVER
W WA ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL TIME FOR PATCHY IFR STRATUS TO FORM
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE STRAIT. OTHERWISE GOOD VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

KSEA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY FOR GOOD VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE NE 3-7 KT THROUGH 18Z THEN SHIFT NW 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. KAM

&&

.MARINE...AN OFFSHORE SURFACE RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURE
OVER E WA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE GFS INDICATES THE UIL-BLI PRESSURE GRADIENT
TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS LAST NIGHT...AND THE CANADIAN LAM
MODEL KEEPS WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. I WILL STICK WITH A HIGH
END SCA TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE OF A BRIEF GALE AT RACE ROCKS
CAN NEVER BE RULED OUT.

BORDERLINE SCA NW WINDS OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT SO THE SCA WAS EXTENDED. SCA NW WINDS ALSO
DEVELOPED OVER THE INNER COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND SOUTHWARD
LAST EVENING...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THAT WILL REPEAT AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS.

STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST. THERE IS A
HIGH PROBABILITY OF A GALE IN THE CENTRAL AND E STRAIT. THE GFS HAS
A 4.4 MB UIL-BLI PRESSURE GRADIENT AT 00Z...THE CANADIAN LAM MODEL
SHOWS GALE FORCE WINDS...AND THE U.S. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW SOLID
SCA WINDS.

THE GFS SHOWS PRETTY GOOD ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING PAST MID WEEK SO
AT THE VERY LEAST SCA W WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE STRAIT...WITH A
CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS AT TIMES. KAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED...RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED.
HOWEVER...IT JUST MEANS THAT WEATHER WILL BE LESS OF AN AGGRAVATING
FACTOR IN THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT. BACKGROUND FIRE DANGER WILL STILL BE
ELEVATED DUE TO DRY FUELS.

THE NEW WRINKLE IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST IS THE INTRODUCTION OF
ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING TO THE CASCADES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP AND BRING NORTH THE NEEDED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. TODAY`S
MODELS CAME AROUND TO SHOWING THE CASCADES AT THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF
A LARGER-SCALE LIGHTNING RISK AREA. THE FIRST THREAT OVER THE
CASCADES WILL BE FROM HIGH-BASED NOCTURNAL CONVECTION THAT COULD
BRING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING TO THE CASCADES FROM MOUNT RAINIER ON
SOUTH IN THE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY. THE LIGHTNING THREAT
WILL REACH THE NORTH CASCADES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN END ON
MONDAY EVENING. A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND THE STEADY FORWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS IS A RECIPE FOR SUB-WETTING RAINS WITH ANY
STORMS. HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR PARTS
     OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND TWO SOUTHERN
     INNER COASTAL WATERS ZONES...CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE
     FUCA...EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KOTX 020948
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
248 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Another hot and smokey day will be on tap today with triple digit
heat over much of central and southeast Washington. The ongoing
drought combined with high heat and low humidity will contribute
to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest. Temperatures
on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an increase in
clouds. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures and locally breezy
winds are expected Tuesday through Friday following the arrival
of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday night: Expect one more hot and dry day
today, then expect conditions to gradually moisten up and cool
slightly. The ridge of high pressure will stay firm over the
Inland Northwest today as the surface trough spans from the
Columbia Basin to north Idaho. This ridge is expected to shift
east tonight into Monday as an upper trough of low pressure swings
down across B.C. This will enhance a moist southwest flow and
advect moisture and clouds into the region.

Temperatures: Only a degree or two change in temperatures is
expected today as low levels remain warm. It will be another hot
and unstable day. This could make current wildfire more active
once again. Could see a few near record highs, today in Moses
Lake, Plain, Stehekin and Omak. The heat advisory will continue
for another day in the LC valley as daytime temperatures top out
from 93 to 103. Monday`s temperatures will cool a few more degrees
with mainly 90s expected.

Winds/humidity: Downslope Cascade gap winds will be another
concern today especially with the extremely dry humidity levels,
from the upper single digits to mid teens. Wind speeds will
lighten up this morning and could see some terrain driven
upslope/up valley winds in sheltered valleys. Surface pressure
gradients are expected to tighten to about 4-5 mb this afternoon
and should see a repeat of gusty gap winds into the evening across
the Cascade valleys, but speeds don`t look to be as strong as
those on Saturday. Some local afternoon gusts of 15 mph are also
possible across the Columbia Basin as the dry and unstable
atmosphere mixes. Northwest to westerly winds will prevail for
much of the day on Monday although humidity values will gradually
increase.

Clouds/weather: Areas of smoke will be a concern this morning and
into the afternoon as the wildfires remain active. The Wolverine
fire near Lake Chelan will be the main culprit although other
smaller fires especially near the Canadian border will add to the
smokey haze. High clouds will be on the increase today as cirrus
rotates in from the southwest. This moisture is associated with a
monsoonal fetch coming up from California. This moisture will
increase tonight especially across the Cascades and could squeeze
a few sprinkles. A weak disturbance in the moist southwest flow
will ripple up the Cascades Monday morning with a small chance of
elevated convection and more sprinkles. As the upper trough drops
across B.C., this will push the disturbance and moisture band
across the Inland Northwest Monday afternoon and evening.
Instability will remain and this could generate more high based
thunderstorms across northeast Washington and north Idaho. There
looks to be a better chance of measurable precipitation across
north Idaho late Monday night, albeit it will still be light.
/rfox.

Tuesday and Wednesday: A 500mb low will reside over British
Columbia Tuesday and Wednesday. The evening runs of the GFS and
ECMWF are in decent agreement that the majority of eastern
Washington and north Idaho will be under the influence of dry
westerly flow Tuesday and Wednesday. However, there may be enough
cool cyclonic flow aloft along the Canadian border to allow the
formation of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
and Wednesday. A 20-30 percent chance for showers and
thunderstorms has also been retained for the Idaho Panhandle
mountains along the Montana border Tuesday, but the evening models
have trended quicker pushing moisture out of the Panhandle. If
this trend continues, Tuesday will be a dry day for most of the
Panhandle. Tuesday and Wednesday look breezy with sustained 10 to
15 mph common across the Basin, Palouse and Spokane area. Gusts to
20 mph will be likely in the afternoon with localized gusts in the
25 to 30 mph range through the Cascasde gaps during the early
evening hours. Even though temperatures will be trending down
Tuesday and Wednesday, wind and low relative humidity levels could
be a concern given the exceedingly dry conditions following the
heat of the weekend.

Thursday through Saturday: It is hard to get too excited about
chances for showers Thursday through Saturday. (Though....some of
us will be excited about the cooler, more seasonal temperatures.)
With the departure of the 500mb low out of British Columbia
Thursday night, the Pacific Northwest will be under a flat
westerly flow Thursday and Friday. The persistent on-shore flow
should bring a gradual increase in our surface dewpoints Thursday
through Saturday, but probably not enough to produce much
instability. There is a hint of a weak shorwave trough on
Saturday, so a 20 percent chance of mountain showers and
thunderstorms enters ther forecast Saturday afternoon. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Smoke will continue to be the main aviation concern
through Sunday. The smoke will be most prevalent in portions of
central Washington near the Wolverine Fire. Lower level smoke
will increase around Chelan tonight, with the BlueSky model
keeping this smoke east of KEAT again...but impacting KMWH
overnight into Sunday morning. Confidence is not high concerning
timing of MVFR visibility as KMWH...so went with a compromise
between timing of BlueSky model and persistance. Some improvement
is expected Sunday afternoon at KMWH as surface winds switch from
N-NW to SW. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  95  66  87  59 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  59  97  61  87  56 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Pullman        98  56  93  58  86  53 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      104  68  99  68  93  63 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville      100  57  98  59  89  55 /   0   0  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      96  52  97  54  83  52 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Kellogg        96  58  96  60  84  54 /   0   0   0  30  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  97  62  93  59 /  10   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee     101  73  97  68  92  65 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Omak          100  68  97  63  92  59 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 020948
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
248 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Another hot and smokey day will be on tap today with triple digit
heat over much of central and southeast Washington. The ongoing
drought combined with high heat and low humidity will contribute
to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest. Temperatures
on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an increase in
clouds. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures and locally breezy
winds are expected Tuesday through Friday following the arrival
of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday night: Expect one more hot and dry day
today, then expect conditions to gradually moisten up and cool
slightly. The ridge of high pressure will stay firm over the
Inland Northwest today as the surface trough spans from the
Columbia Basin to north Idaho. This ridge is expected to shift
east tonight into Monday as an upper trough of low pressure swings
down across B.C. This will enhance a moist southwest flow and
advect moisture and clouds into the region.

Temperatures: Only a degree or two change in temperatures is
expected today as low levels remain warm. It will be another hot
and unstable day. This could make current wildfire more active
once again. Could see a few near record highs, today in Moses
Lake, Plain, Stehekin and Omak. The heat advisory will continue
for another day in the LC valley as daytime temperatures top out
from 93 to 103. Monday`s temperatures will cool a few more degrees
with mainly 90s expected.

Winds/humidity: Downslope Cascade gap winds will be another
concern today especially with the extremely dry humidity levels,
from the upper single digits to mid teens. Wind speeds will
lighten up this morning and could see some terrain driven
upslope/up valley winds in sheltered valleys. Surface pressure
gradients are expected to tighten to about 4-5 mb this afternoon
and should see a repeat of gusty gap winds into the evening across
the Cascade valleys, but speeds don`t look to be as strong as
those on Saturday. Some local afternoon gusts of 15 mph are also
possible across the Columbia Basin as the dry and unstable
atmosphere mixes. Northwest to westerly winds will prevail for
much of the day on Monday although humidity values will gradually
increase.

Clouds/weather: Areas of smoke will be a concern this morning and
into the afternoon as the wildfires remain active. The Wolverine
fire near Lake Chelan will be the main culprit although other
smaller fires especially near the Canadian border will add to the
smokey haze. High clouds will be on the increase today as cirrus
rotates in from the southwest. This moisture is associated with a
monsoonal fetch coming up from California. This moisture will
increase tonight especially across the Cascades and could squeeze
a few sprinkles. A weak disturbance in the moist southwest flow
will ripple up the Cascades Monday morning with a small chance of
elevated convection and more sprinkles. As the upper trough drops
across B.C., this will push the disturbance and moisture band
across the Inland Northwest Monday afternoon and evening.
Instability will remain and this could generate more high based
thunderstorms across northeast Washington and north Idaho. There
looks to be a better chance of measurable precipitation across
north Idaho late Monday night, albeit it will still be light.
/rfox.

Tuesday and Wednesday: A 500mb low will reside over British
Columbia Tuesday and Wednesday. The evening runs of the GFS and
ECMWF are in decent agreement that the majority of eastern
Washington and north Idaho will be under the influence of dry
westerly flow Tuesday and Wednesday. However, there may be enough
cool cyclonic flow aloft along the Canadian border to allow the
formation of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
and Wednesday. A 20-30 percent chance for showers and
thunderstorms has also been retained for the Idaho Panhandle
mountains along the Montana border Tuesday, but the evening models
have trended quicker pushing moisture out of the Panhandle. If
this trend continues, Tuesday will be a dry day for most of the
Panhandle. Tuesday and Wednesday look breezy with sustained 10 to
15 mph common across the Basin, Palouse and Spokane area. Gusts to
20 mph will be likely in the afternoon with localized gusts in the
25 to 30 mph range through the Cascasde gaps during the early
evening hours. Even though temperatures will be trending down
Tuesday and Wednesday, wind and low relative humidity levels could
be a concern given the exceedingly dry conditions following the
heat of the weekend.

Thursday through Saturday: It is hard to get too excited about
chances for showers Thursday through Saturday. (Though....some of
us will be excited about the cooler, more seasonal temperatures.)
With the departure of the 500mb low out of British Columbia
Thursday night, the Pacific Northwest will be under a flat
westerly flow Thursday and Friday. The persistent on-shore flow
should bring a gradual increase in our surface dewpoints Thursday
through Saturday, but probably not enough to produce much
instability. There is a hint of a weak shorwave trough on
Saturday, so a 20 percent chance of mountain showers and
thunderstorms enters ther forecast Saturday afternoon. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Smoke will continue to be the main aviation concern
through Sunday. The smoke will be most prevalent in portions of
central Washington near the Wolverine Fire. Lower level smoke
will increase around Chelan tonight, with the BlueSky model
keeping this smoke east of KEAT again...but impacting KMWH
overnight into Sunday morning. Confidence is not high concerning
timing of MVFR visibility as KMWH...so went with a compromise
between timing of BlueSky model and persistance. Some improvement
is expected Sunday afternoon at KMWH as surface winds switch from
N-NW to SW. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  95  66  87  59 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  59  97  61  87  56 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Pullman        98  56  93  58  86  53 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      104  68  99  68  93  63 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville      100  57  98  59  89  55 /   0   0  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      96  52  97  54  83  52 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Kellogg        96  58  96  60  84  54 /   0   0   0  30  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  97  62  93  59 /  10   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee     101  73  97  68  92  65 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Omak          100  68  97  63  92  59 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 020943
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
243 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT E TODAY AND MON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL STEER SOME MOISTURE N OVER WESTERN OREGON INTO
MONDAY BRINGING A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR GRADUAL COOLING.
&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS TENDING TO
REGENERATE OVER COASTAL PARTS OF SW OREGON AND UP OFF THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST. THIS IS AN AREA AT THE HEAD OF A DRY SLOT SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH TENDS TO BE FAVORED FOR CONVECTION.
EVENING MVFR SOUNDING SUGGESTS CONVECTION IS FAIRLY HIGH
BASED...DRIVEN BY INSTABILITY ALOFT AND WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE
UPPER RIDGE DOMINANT THE LAST FEW DAYS WAS BEGINNING TO SHIFT
E...ALLOWING THE LOW OFF THE CA COAST TO LIFT HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY N. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING
THROUGH SUN NIGHT IT BECOMES DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT
CONVECTION ANYWHERE...ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INSTABILITY
ALOFT IS MARGINAL AT BEST. FOR THE MORNING WILL STICK WITH CURRENT
TRENDS AND SUPPORTED BEST BY HRRR...AND EXPAND THE AREA FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS N...ESP UP THE COAST. BY AFTERNOON MODELS RETURN
TO FAVORING CASCADES WITH BEST CONDITIONS FOR INSTABILITY...BUT
AGAIN WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT HIGH BASED WILL CARRY A THREAT W TO
THE COAST. MODELS TENDING TO INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING N
THROUGH WESTERN OREGON OVERNIGHT TONIGHT PROVIDING A POTENTIAL FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM THREAT...SO WILL EXPAND CHANCES FOR THUNDER FURTHER
N AND W INTO THE COAST RANGE...BUT KEEP POPS LOW DUE TO MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE ALOFT AND AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE
FLOW...ESP ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST RANGE OVERNIGHT...WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO TEMPS BEGINNING TO MODERATE TODAY. H8 TEMPS STILL
SUPPORT INLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S TODAY SO WILL KEEP THE
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY.

PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR PUSHED IN WITH A STRONGER NW ONSHORE FLOW
MON AND TUE...BRINGING TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL BY TUE. AS THE
UPPER FLOW TURN MORE SW MON...AND EVENTUALLY WESTERLY TUE TO
CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BECOME LIMITED TO THE CASCADE CREST.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE GENERAL
TREND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER WEATHER. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRUSHING BY THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY...BUT KEEPS MOST OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR LATE
TUESDAY DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES RETURN
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE GO
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE USED A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH FOR
NEXT WEEKEND AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
OREGON CASCADES. /64

&&

.AVIATION...VFR INLAND THIS MORNING BUT WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
FROM CONVECTION OVER SW OREGON WILL DRIFT OVER THE REGION. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN/THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA 10Z-17Z BUT CHANCE APPEARS SMALL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
MENTION IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF. AT THE COAST...SHALLOW IFR STRATUS
WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND LIKELY DEVELOPS ALONG
THE NORTH COAST BY 11Z. THIS STRATUS WILL RETREAT OFFSHORE AROUND
18Z FOR VFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT DEVELOPING CUMULUS
SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPANDING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE COAST RANGE 03Z-10Z
TUE...BUT AGAIN INSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN ANY
PARTICULAR TAF AT THIS TIME.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOME
RESIDUAL MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OVER SW OREGON WILL DRIFT
OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. LIKELY SEE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM. CHANCES BEST S
AND E OF TERMINAL AND IN CASCADES...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ONE
IMPACTING THE TERMINAL DURING 04Z-10Z.   CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE ARE DRIFTING FROM S TO N
INTO THE OUTER CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
POTENTIAL THREATS ARE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...WITH THE
THREAT AREA EXPANDING TO COVER MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN IN THE EVENING HOURS.

OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR SUNDAY WITH
N WINDS OVER THE WATERS. AN OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS REVEALED WINDS
STILL AROUND 20 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS...SO WILL ALLOW THE
ADVISORY FOR WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 10 AM AS AREAS OF
MARGINALLY ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS MAY STILL EXIST. ANOTHER SCA
FOR WINDS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MORE WIDESPREAD
GUSTS TO 25 KT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP.

MEANWHILE...THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE MAINTAINING STEEP
SEAS OVER THE WATERS OF 6 TO 7 FEET AT 6 TO 8 SECONDS.
THEREFORE...WITH CONDITIONS FLUCTUATING ABOVE OR VERY NEAR OUR
CRITERIA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...THE ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
LOOKS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND
     METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER
     HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ
     COUNTY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
     WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 020528
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1028 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Expect a very hot weekend with afternoon temperatures in the mid
90s to near 105. The ongoing drought combined with high heat and
low humidity will raise concerns for wildfires the next several
days. A cold front will bring temperatures back closer to average
on Tuesday. Temperatures Wednesday through Friday will likely be
at or below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: Overall a quiet night in place with an upper ridge
persisting over the region. Main story is the area wildfires which
has contributed quite a smoke to several areas across Central and
Eastern Washington into North Idaho. The biggest
fire...Wolverine...near Lake Chelan has been putting up the
largest amount of smoke while other fires near Ione and earlier
near Sprague have also been a contributor. With the fires near
Lake Chelan and Ione still burning active as of 9 pm per evidence
from satellite and/or radar with an inversion setting in...there
will likely be quite a bit of smoke around the area tonight.
Forecast has been updated to increase coverage of smoke
tonight...as well as around the Moses Lake, Ephrata, and southern
Okanogan Valley areas for Sunday. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Smoke will continue to be the main aviation concern
through Sunday. The smoke will be most prevalent in portions of
central Washington near the Wolverine Fire. Lower level smoke
will increase around Chelan tonight, with the BlueSky model
keeping this smoke east of KEAT again...but impacting KMWH
overnight into Sunday morning. Confidence is not high concerning
timing of MVFR visibility as KMWH...so went with a compromise
between timing of BlueSky model and persistance. Some improvement
is expected Sunday afternoon at KMWH as surface winds switch from
N-NW to SW. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        63  97  70  94  67  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  96  63  94  64  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Pullman        56  97  62  92  60  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       66 103  72  98  69  95 /   0   0  10  10  20  10
Colville       56  99  62  95  62  89 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Sandpoint      50  95  58  91  60  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Kellogg        58  95  58  94  61  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Moses Lake     59  99  69  97  64  93 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee      68  98  76  96  70  91 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Omak           60 100  70  98  64  92 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA...     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 020528
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1028 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Expect a very hot weekend with afternoon temperatures in the mid
90s to near 105. The ongoing drought combined with high heat and
low humidity will raise concerns for wildfires the next several
days. A cold front will bring temperatures back closer to average
on Tuesday. Temperatures Wednesday through Friday will likely be
at or below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: Overall a quiet night in place with an upper ridge
persisting over the region. Main story is the area wildfires which
has contributed quite a smoke to several areas across Central and
Eastern Washington into North Idaho. The biggest
fire...Wolverine...near Lake Chelan has been putting up the
largest amount of smoke while other fires near Ione and earlier
near Sprague have also been a contributor. With the fires near
Lake Chelan and Ione still burning active as of 9 pm per evidence
from satellite and/or radar with an inversion setting in...there
will likely be quite a bit of smoke around the area tonight.
Forecast has been updated to increase coverage of smoke
tonight...as well as around the Moses Lake, Ephrata, and southern
Okanogan Valley areas for Sunday. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Smoke will continue to be the main aviation concern
through Sunday. The smoke will be most prevalent in portions of
central Washington near the Wolverine Fire. Lower level smoke
will increase around Chelan tonight, with the BlueSky model
keeping this smoke east of KEAT again...but impacting KMWH
overnight into Sunday morning. Confidence is not high concerning
timing of MVFR visibility as KMWH...so went with a compromise
between timing of BlueSky model and persistance. Some improvement
is expected Sunday afternoon at KMWH as surface winds switch from
N-NW to SW. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        63  97  70  94  67  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  96  63  94  64  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Pullman        56  97  62  92  60  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       66 103  72  98  69  95 /   0   0  10  10  20  10
Colville       56  99  62  95  62  89 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Sandpoint      50  95  58  91  60  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Kellogg        58  95  58  94  61  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Moses Lake     59  99  69  97  64  93 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee      68  98  76  96  70  91 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Omak           60 100  70  98  64  92 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA...     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 020422
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
922 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Expect a very hot weekend with afternoon temperatures in the mid
90s to near 105. The ongoing drought combined with high heat and
low humidity will raise concerns for wildfires the next several
days. A cold front will bring temperatures back closer to average
on Tuesday. Temperatures Wednesday through Friday will likely be
at or below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: Overall a quiet night in place with an upper ridge
persisting over the region. Main story is the area wildfires which
has contributed quite a smoke to several areas across Central and
Eastern Washington into North Idaho. The biggest
fire...Wolverine...near Lake Chelan has been putting up the
largest amount of smoke while other fires near Ione and earlier
near Sprague have also been a contributor. With the fires near
Lake Chelan and Ione still burning active as of 9 pm per evidence
from satellite and/or radar with an inversion setting in...there
will likely be quite a bit of smoke around the area tonight.
Forecast has been updated to increase coverage of smoke
tonight...as well as around the Moses Lake, Ephrata, and southern
Okanogan Valley areas for Sunday. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A large plume of elevated smoke will continue to track
towards Grand Coulee, Spokane, and Coeur D`Alene areas tonight
but prevailing surface visibilities should remain VFR...although a
fire near Sprague could track smoke up towards KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. As
the inversions sets in...lower level smoke will increase around
Chelan, with the BlueSky model keeping this smoke east of KEAT
again...but impacting KMWH overnight into Sunday morning.
Confidence is not high concerning timing of MVFR visibility as
KMWH...so went with a compromise between timing of BlueSky model
and persistance. Some improvement is expected Sunday afternoon at
KMWH as surface winds switch from N-NW to SW. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        63  97  70  94  67  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  96  63  94  64  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Pullman        56  97  62  92  60  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       66 103  72  98  69  95 /   0   0  10  10  20  10
Colville       56  99  62  95  62  89 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Sandpoint      50  95  58  91  60  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Kellogg        58  95  58  94  61  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Moses Lake     59  99  69  97  64  93 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee      68  98  76  96  70  91 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Omak           60 100  70  98  64  92 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA...     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 020422
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
922 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Expect a very hot weekend with afternoon temperatures in the mid
90s to near 105. The ongoing drought combined with high heat and
low humidity will raise concerns for wildfires the next several
days. A cold front will bring temperatures back closer to average
on Tuesday. Temperatures Wednesday through Friday will likely be
at or below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: Overall a quiet night in place with an upper ridge
persisting over the region. Main story is the area wildfires which
has contributed quite a smoke to several areas across Central and
Eastern Washington into North Idaho. The biggest
fire...Wolverine...near Lake Chelan has been putting up the
largest amount of smoke while other fires near Ione and earlier
near Sprague have also been a contributor. With the fires near
Lake Chelan and Ione still burning active as of 9 pm per evidence
from satellite and/or radar with an inversion setting in...there
will likely be quite a bit of smoke around the area tonight.
Forecast has been updated to increase coverage of smoke
tonight...as well as around the Moses Lake, Ephrata, and southern
Okanogan Valley areas for Sunday. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A large plume of elevated smoke will continue to track
towards Grand Coulee, Spokane, and Coeur D`Alene areas tonight
but prevailing surface visibilities should remain VFR...although a
fire near Sprague could track smoke up towards KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. As
the inversions sets in...lower level smoke will increase around
Chelan, with the BlueSky model keeping this smoke east of KEAT
again...but impacting KMWH overnight into Sunday morning.
Confidence is not high concerning timing of MVFR visibility as
KMWH...so went with a compromise between timing of BlueSky model
and persistance. Some improvement is expected Sunday afternoon at
KMWH as surface winds switch from N-NW to SW. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        63  97  70  94  67  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  96  63  94  64  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Pullman        56  97  62  92  60  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       66 103  72  98  69  95 /   0   0  10  10  20  10
Colville       56  99  62  95  62  89 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Sandpoint      50  95  58  91  60  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Kellogg        58  95  58  94  61  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Moses Lake     59  99  69  97  64  93 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee      68  98  76  96  70  91 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Omak           60 100  70  98  64  92 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA...     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 020358 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
831 PM PDT SAT AUG  1 2015

CORRECTION FOR HAZARD SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY MAINTAINING HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL STEER SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER WESTERN
OREGON INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
OREGON CASCADES...WITH SOME DEBRIS MOISTURE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
CASCADES LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR GRADUAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WE HAD ANOTHER TEMPERATURE RECORD BREAKING DAY TODAY
WITH FIVE CLIMATE LOCATIONS SETTING NEW DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS.

A LOW OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS HELPING TO STEER MONSOONAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN OREGON. THE LOW AND THE MOISTURE HAS
RESULTED IN QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE PORTLAND
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS
BRUSHED ALONG THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STORMS ARE WINDING DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
LANE COUNTY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT INLAND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF
ONSHORE WINDS. THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP STEER THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH FURTHER NORTHWARD OVER NW OREGON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW
OREGON SUNDAY.

THE INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. INTERIOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S RATHER THAN THE TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES OF LATE.
HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED TO REPLACE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE
INTERIOR LOW LANDS WITH A HEAT ADVISORY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A
DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO DROP THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE
COAST RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY
SOME MARINE CLOUDS REACHING PORTLAND AND EUGENE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO KEEP INLAND TEMPERATURES JUST AROUND 90. THUNDER AFTER MONDAY
MORNING WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER CASCADES AND IN THE
SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE MODELS INDICATE A BETTER MARINE INTRUSION INLAND ON TUESDAY
MORNING AND WENT WITH MORE MORNING CLOUDS IN THE NORTH VALLEY THEN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE NORTH VALLEY AND
MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY THUNDER
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES...BUT LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAKES THAT NOT CERTAIN EITHER. TJ/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE GENERAL
TREND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER WEATHER. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRUSHING BY THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY...BUT KEEPS MOST OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR LATE
TUESDAY DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES RETURN
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE GO
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE USED A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH FOR
NEXT WEEKEND AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
OREGON CASCADES. /64

&&

.AVIATION...VFR INLAND. AN AREA OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO STAY CLOSE
TO THE COASTLINE WITH POCKETS OF IFR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST. EXPECT STRATUS AND IFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO
NORTH COAST LATER TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS OVER SW OREGON/NOCAL WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
CUMULUS BUILD UPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE EUGENE AND
PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS SALEM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PRESSURE
PATTERN. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 25 KTS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN EASING MONDAY.

THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS IS PRODUCING CHOPPY SEAS OF 6 TO 7
FT WITH SHORT PERIODS MAKING IT ROUGH FOR BOATS VENTURING OUT FOR
RECREATION. TW

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 05Z FOR
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 5-6. MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER
THE NORTH ZONES...NORTH OF A LINE FROM AROUND BENTON COUNTY EAST TO
MT. JEFFERSON. MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FILTERING INTO THE SOUTH
ZONES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 4 VALUES...HELPING TO
REDUCE POTENTIAL COLUMN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. ONE OTHER NEAR-TERM
CONCERN IS LIGHTNING IN THE FAR SE PART OF THE AREA. AT 22Z A FEW
STRIKES NOTED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST NEAR WILLAMETTE PASS. FEEL ANY
CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ZONE 608 AND PERHAPS
THE EAST HALF OF ZONE 606. CONVECTIVE THREAT SPREADS NORTH AND WEST
SUNDAY AS SOUTH FLOW ALOFT FURTHER NORTH AND 500 MB RIDGE AXIS
GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTH AS WELL. HAVE SPREAD MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE S WA CASCADES SUN EVENING THROUGH MON MORNING. WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS FOR SUN...BUT FOR NOW FEEL LIKE
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG. ALSO...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER THE S HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY WILL TEND TO BECOME
WETTER DUE TO THE LONGER-DURATION MOIST SOUTH FLOW. CONVECTIVE
THREAT GETS PUSHED EAST OF THE CASCADES MON NIGHT AND TUE...WITH ANY
THREAT TUE NEAR THE CREST OF ZONE 608. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST RANGE-MT.HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE CREST-NORTH
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE-
     WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST-WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-
     LOWER COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER
     VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK COUNTY
     LOWLANDS-EAST WILLAPA HILLS-EXTREME SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WATERS

     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 020358 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
831 PM PDT SAT AUG  1 2015

CORRECTION FOR HAZARD SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY MAINTAINING HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL STEER SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER WESTERN
OREGON INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
OREGON CASCADES...WITH SOME DEBRIS MOISTURE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
CASCADES LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR GRADUAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WE HAD ANOTHER TEMPERATURE RECORD BREAKING DAY TODAY
WITH FIVE CLIMATE LOCATIONS SETTING NEW DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS.

A LOW OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS HELPING TO STEER MONSOONAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN OREGON. THE LOW AND THE MOISTURE HAS
RESULTED IN QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE PORTLAND
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS
BRUSHED ALONG THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STORMS ARE WINDING DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
LANE COUNTY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT INLAND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF
ONSHORE WINDS. THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP STEER THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH FURTHER NORTHWARD OVER NW OREGON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW
OREGON SUNDAY.

THE INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. INTERIOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S RATHER THAN THE TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES OF LATE.
HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED TO REPLACE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE
INTERIOR LOW LANDS WITH A HEAT ADVISORY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A
DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO DROP THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE
COAST RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY
SOME MARINE CLOUDS REACHING PORTLAND AND EUGENE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO KEEP INLAND TEMPERATURES JUST AROUND 90. THUNDER AFTER MONDAY
MORNING WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER CASCADES AND IN THE
SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE MODELS INDICATE A BETTER MARINE INTRUSION INLAND ON TUESDAY
MORNING AND WENT WITH MORE MORNING CLOUDS IN THE NORTH VALLEY THEN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE NORTH VALLEY AND
MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY THUNDER
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES...BUT LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAKES THAT NOT CERTAIN EITHER. TJ/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE GENERAL
TREND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER WEATHER. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRUSHING BY THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY...BUT KEEPS MOST OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR LATE
TUESDAY DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES RETURN
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE GO
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE USED A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH FOR
NEXT WEEKEND AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
OREGON CASCADES. /64

&&

.AVIATION...VFR INLAND. AN AREA OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO STAY CLOSE
TO THE COASTLINE WITH POCKETS OF IFR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST. EXPECT STRATUS AND IFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO
NORTH COAST LATER TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS OVER SW OREGON/NOCAL WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
CUMULUS BUILD UPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE EUGENE AND
PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS SALEM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PRESSURE
PATTERN. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 25 KTS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN EASING MONDAY.

THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS IS PRODUCING CHOPPY SEAS OF 6 TO 7
FT WITH SHORT PERIODS MAKING IT ROUGH FOR BOATS VENTURING OUT FOR
RECREATION. TW

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 05Z FOR
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 5-6. MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER
THE NORTH ZONES...NORTH OF A LINE FROM AROUND BENTON COUNTY EAST TO
MT. JEFFERSON. MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FILTERING INTO THE SOUTH
ZONES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 4 VALUES...HELPING TO
REDUCE POTENTIAL COLUMN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. ONE OTHER NEAR-TERM
CONCERN IS LIGHTNING IN THE FAR SE PART OF THE AREA. AT 22Z A FEW
STRIKES NOTED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST NEAR WILLAMETTE PASS. FEEL ANY
CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ZONE 608 AND PERHAPS
THE EAST HALF OF ZONE 606. CONVECTIVE THREAT SPREADS NORTH AND WEST
SUNDAY AS SOUTH FLOW ALOFT FURTHER NORTH AND 500 MB RIDGE AXIS
GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTH AS WELL. HAVE SPREAD MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE S WA CASCADES SUN EVENING THROUGH MON MORNING. WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS FOR SUN...BUT FOR NOW FEEL LIKE
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG. ALSO...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER THE S HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY WILL TEND TO BECOME
WETTER DUE TO THE LONGER-DURATION MOIST SOUTH FLOW. CONVECTIVE
THREAT GETS PUSHED EAST OF THE CASCADES MON NIGHT AND TUE...WITH ANY
THREAT TUE NEAR THE CREST OF ZONE 608. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST RANGE-MT.HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE CREST-NORTH
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE-
     WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST-WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-
     LOWER COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER
     VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK COUNTY
     LOWLANDS-EAST WILLAPA HILLS-EXTREME SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WATERS

     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 020358 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
831 PM PDT SAT AUG  1 2015

CORRECTION FOR HAZARD SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY MAINTAINING HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL STEER SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER WESTERN
OREGON INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
OREGON CASCADES...WITH SOME DEBRIS MOISTURE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
CASCADES LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR GRADUAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WE HAD ANOTHER TEMPERATURE RECORD BREAKING DAY TODAY
WITH FIVE CLIMATE LOCATIONS SETTING NEW DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS.

A LOW OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS HELPING TO STEER MONSOONAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN OREGON. THE LOW AND THE MOISTURE HAS
RESULTED IN QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE PORTLAND
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS
BRUSHED ALONG THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STORMS ARE WINDING DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
LANE COUNTY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT INLAND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF
ONSHORE WINDS. THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP STEER THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH FURTHER NORTHWARD OVER NW OREGON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW
OREGON SUNDAY.

THE INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. INTERIOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S RATHER THAN THE TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES OF LATE.
HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED TO REPLACE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE
INTERIOR LOW LANDS WITH A HEAT ADVISORY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A
DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO DROP THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE
COAST RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY
SOME MARINE CLOUDS REACHING PORTLAND AND EUGENE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO KEEP INLAND TEMPERATURES JUST AROUND 90. THUNDER AFTER MONDAY
MORNING WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER CASCADES AND IN THE
SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE MODELS INDICATE A BETTER MARINE INTRUSION INLAND ON TUESDAY
MORNING AND WENT WITH MORE MORNING CLOUDS IN THE NORTH VALLEY THEN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE NORTH VALLEY AND
MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY THUNDER
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES...BUT LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAKES THAT NOT CERTAIN EITHER. TJ/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE GENERAL
TREND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER WEATHER. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRUSHING BY THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY...BUT KEEPS MOST OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR LATE
TUESDAY DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES RETURN
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE GO
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE USED A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH FOR
NEXT WEEKEND AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
OREGON CASCADES. /64

&&

.AVIATION...VFR INLAND. AN AREA OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO STAY CLOSE
TO THE COASTLINE WITH POCKETS OF IFR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST. EXPECT STRATUS AND IFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO
NORTH COAST LATER TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS OVER SW OREGON/NOCAL WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
CUMULUS BUILD UPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE EUGENE AND
PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS SALEM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PRESSURE
PATTERN. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 25 KTS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN EASING MONDAY.

THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS IS PRODUCING CHOPPY SEAS OF 6 TO 7
FT WITH SHORT PERIODS MAKING IT ROUGH FOR BOATS VENTURING OUT FOR
RECREATION. TW

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 05Z FOR
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 5-6. MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER
THE NORTH ZONES...NORTH OF A LINE FROM AROUND BENTON COUNTY EAST TO
MT. JEFFERSON. MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FILTERING INTO THE SOUTH
ZONES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 4 VALUES...HELPING TO
REDUCE POTENTIAL COLUMN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. ONE OTHER NEAR-TERM
CONCERN IS LIGHTNING IN THE FAR SE PART OF THE AREA. AT 22Z A FEW
STRIKES NOTED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST NEAR WILLAMETTE PASS. FEEL ANY
CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ZONE 608 AND PERHAPS
THE EAST HALF OF ZONE 606. CONVECTIVE THREAT SPREADS NORTH AND WEST
SUNDAY AS SOUTH FLOW ALOFT FURTHER NORTH AND 500 MB RIDGE AXIS
GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTH AS WELL. HAVE SPREAD MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE S WA CASCADES SUN EVENING THROUGH MON MORNING. WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS FOR SUN...BUT FOR NOW FEEL LIKE
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG. ALSO...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER THE S HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY WILL TEND TO BECOME
WETTER DUE TO THE LONGER-DURATION MOIST SOUTH FLOW. CONVECTIVE
THREAT GETS PUSHED EAST OF THE CASCADES MON NIGHT AND TUE...WITH ANY
THREAT TUE NEAR THE CREST OF ZONE 608. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST RANGE-MT.HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE CREST-NORTH
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE-
     WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST-WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-
     LOWER COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER
     VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK COUNTY
     LOWLANDS-EAST WILLAPA HILLS-EXTREME SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WATERS

     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 020331
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
831 PM PDT SAT AUG  1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY MAINTAINING HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL STEER SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER WESTERN
OREGON INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
OREGON CASCADES...WITH SOME DEBRIS MOISTURE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
CASCADES LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR GRADUAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WE HAD ANOTHER TEMPERATURE RECORD BREAKING DAY TODAY
WITH FIVE CLIMATE LOCATIONS SETTING NEW DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS.

A LOW OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS HELPING TO STEER MONSOONAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN OREGON. THE LOW AND THE MOISTURE HAS
RESULTED IN QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE PORTLAND
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS
BRUSHED ALONG THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STORMS ARE WINDING DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
LANE COUNTY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT INLAND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF
ONSHORE WINDS. THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP STEER THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH FURTHER NORTHWARD OVER NW OREGON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW
OREGON SUNDAY.

THE INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. INTERIOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S RATHER THAN THE TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES OF LATE.
HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED TO REPLACE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE
INTERIOR LOW LANDS WITH A HEAT ADVISORY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A
DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO DROP THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE
COAST RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY
SOME MARINE CLOUDS REACHING PORTLAND AND EUGENE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO KEEP INLAND TEMPERATURES JUST AROUND 90. THUNDER AFTER MONDAY
MORNING WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER CASCADES AND IN THE
SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE MODELS INDICATE A BETTER MARINE INTRUSION INLAND ON TUESDAY
MORNING AND WENT WITH MORE MORNING CLOUDS IN THE NORTH VALLEY THEN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE NORTH VALLEY AND
MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY THUNDER
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES...BUT LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAKES THAT NOT CERTAIN EITHER. TJ/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE GENERAL
TREND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER WEATHER. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRUSHING BY THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY...BUT KEEPS MOST OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR LATE
TUESDAY DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES RETURN
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE GO
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE USED A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH FOR
NEXT WEEKEND AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
OREGON CASCADES. /64

&&

.AVIATION...VFR INLAND. AN AREA OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO STAY CLOSE
TO THE COASTLINE WITH POCKETS OF IFR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST. EXPECT STRATUS AND IFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO
NORTH COAST LATER TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS OVER SW OREGON/NOCAL WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
CUMULUS BUILD UPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE EUGENE AND
PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS SALEM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PRESSURE
PATTERN. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 25 KTS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN EASING MONDAY.

THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS IS PRODUCING CHOPPY SEAS OF 6 TO 7
FT WITH SHORT PERIODS MAKING IT ROUGH FOR BOATS VENTURING OUT FOR
RECREATION. TW

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 05Z FOR
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 5-6. MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER
THE NORTH ZONES...NORTH OF A LINE FROM AROUND BENTON COUNTY EAST TO
MT. JEFFERSON. MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FILTERING INTO THE SOUTH
ZONES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 4 VALUES...HELPING TO
REDUCE POTENTIAL COLUMN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. ONE OTHER NEAR-TERM
CONCERN IS LIGHTNING IN THE FAR SE PART OF THE AREA. AT 22Z A FEW
STRIKES NOTED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST NEAR WILLAMETTE PASS. FEEL ANY
CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ZONE 608 AND PERHAPS
THE EAST HALF OF ZONE 606. CONVECTIVE THREAT SPREADS NORTH AND WEST
SUNDAY AS SOUTH FLOW ALOFT FURTHER NORTH AND 500 MB RIDGE AXIS
GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTH AS WELL. HAVE SPREAD MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE S WA CASCADES SUN EVENING THROUGH MON MORNING. WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS FOR SUN...BUT FOR NOW FEEL LIKE
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG. ALSO...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER THE S HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY WILL TEND TO BECOME
WETTER DUE TO THE LONGER-DURATION MOIST SOUTH FLOW. CONVECTIVE
THREAT GETS PUSHED EAST OF THE CASCADES MON NIGHT AND TUE...WITH ANY
THREAT TUE NEAR THE CREST OF ZONE 608. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST RANGE-MT.HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE CREST-NORTH
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE-
     WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST-WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-
     LOWER COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER
     VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK COUNTY
     LOWLANDS-EAST WILLAPA HILLS-EXTREME SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WATERS

     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 020331
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
831 PM PDT SAT AUG  1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY MAINTAINING HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL STEER SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER WESTERN
OREGON INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
OREGON CASCADES...WITH SOME DEBRIS MOISTURE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
CASCADES LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR GRADUAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WE HAD ANOTHER TEMPERATURE RECORD BREAKING DAY TODAY
WITH FIVE CLIMATE LOCATIONS SETTING NEW DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS.

A LOW OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS HELPING TO STEER MONSOONAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN OREGON. THE LOW AND THE MOISTURE HAS
RESULTED IN QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE PORTLAND
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS
BRUSHED ALONG THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STORMS ARE WINDING DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
LANE COUNTY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT INLAND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF
ONSHORE WINDS. THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP STEER THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH FURTHER NORTHWARD OVER NW OREGON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW
OREGON SUNDAY.

THE INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. INTERIOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S RATHER THAN THE TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES OF LATE.
HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED TO REPLACE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE
INTERIOR LOW LANDS WITH A HEAT ADVISORY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A
DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO DROP THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE
COAST RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY
SOME MARINE CLOUDS REACHING PORTLAND AND EUGENE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO KEEP INLAND TEMPERATURES JUST AROUND 90. THUNDER AFTER MONDAY
MORNING WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER CASCADES AND IN THE
SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE MODELS INDICATE A BETTER MARINE INTRUSION INLAND ON TUESDAY
MORNING AND WENT WITH MORE MORNING CLOUDS IN THE NORTH VALLEY THEN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE NORTH VALLEY AND
MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY THUNDER
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES...BUT LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAKES THAT NOT CERTAIN EITHER. TJ/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE GENERAL
TREND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER WEATHER. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRUSHING BY THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY...BUT KEEPS MOST OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR LATE
TUESDAY DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES RETURN
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE GO
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE USED A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH FOR
NEXT WEEKEND AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
OREGON CASCADES. /64

&&

.AVIATION...VFR INLAND. AN AREA OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO STAY CLOSE
TO THE COASTLINE WITH POCKETS OF IFR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST. EXPECT STRATUS AND IFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO
NORTH COAST LATER TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS OVER SW OREGON/NOCAL WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
CUMULUS BUILD UPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE EUGENE AND
PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS SALEM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PRESSURE
PATTERN. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 25 KTS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN EASING MONDAY.

THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS IS PRODUCING CHOPPY SEAS OF 6 TO 7
FT WITH SHORT PERIODS MAKING IT ROUGH FOR BOATS VENTURING OUT FOR
RECREATION. TW

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 05Z FOR
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 5-6. MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER
THE NORTH ZONES...NORTH OF A LINE FROM AROUND BENTON COUNTY EAST TO
MT. JEFFERSON. MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FILTERING INTO THE SOUTH
ZONES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 4 VALUES...HELPING TO
REDUCE POTENTIAL COLUMN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. ONE OTHER NEAR-TERM
CONCERN IS LIGHTNING IN THE FAR SE PART OF THE AREA. AT 22Z A FEW
STRIKES NOTED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST NEAR WILLAMETTE PASS. FEEL ANY
CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ZONE 608 AND PERHAPS
THE EAST HALF OF ZONE 606. CONVECTIVE THREAT SPREADS NORTH AND WEST
SUNDAY AS SOUTH FLOW ALOFT FURTHER NORTH AND 500 MB RIDGE AXIS
GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTH AS WELL. HAVE SPREAD MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE S WA CASCADES SUN EVENING THROUGH MON MORNING. WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS FOR SUN...BUT FOR NOW FEEL LIKE
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG. ALSO...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER THE S HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY WILL TEND TO BECOME
WETTER DUE TO THE LONGER-DURATION MOIST SOUTH FLOW. CONVECTIVE
THREAT GETS PUSHED EAST OF THE CASCADES MON NIGHT AND TUE...WITH ANY
THREAT TUE NEAR THE CREST OF ZONE 608. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST RANGE-MT.HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE CREST-NORTH
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE-
     WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST-WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-
     LOWER COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER
     VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK COUNTY
     LOWLANDS-EAST WILLAPA HILLS-EXTREME SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WATERS

     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 020331
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
831 PM PDT SAT AUG  1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY MAINTAINING HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL STEER SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER WESTERN
OREGON INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
OREGON CASCADES...WITH SOME DEBRIS MOISTURE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
CASCADES LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR GRADUAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WE HAD ANOTHER TEMPERATURE RECORD BREAKING DAY TODAY
WITH FIVE CLIMATE LOCATIONS SETTING NEW DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS.

A LOW OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS HELPING TO STEER MONSOONAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN OREGON. THE LOW AND THE MOISTURE HAS
RESULTED IN QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE PORTLAND
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS
BRUSHED ALONG THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STORMS ARE WINDING DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
LANE COUNTY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT INLAND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF
ONSHORE WINDS. THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP STEER THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH FURTHER NORTHWARD OVER NW OREGON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW
OREGON SUNDAY.

THE INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. INTERIOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S RATHER THAN THE TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES OF LATE.
HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED TO REPLACE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE
INTERIOR LOW LANDS WITH A HEAT ADVISORY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A
DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO DROP THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE
COAST RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY
SOME MARINE CLOUDS REACHING PORTLAND AND EUGENE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO KEEP INLAND TEMPERATURES JUST AROUND 90. THUNDER AFTER MONDAY
MORNING WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER CASCADES AND IN THE
SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE MODELS INDICATE A BETTER MARINE INTRUSION INLAND ON TUESDAY
MORNING AND WENT WITH MORE MORNING CLOUDS IN THE NORTH VALLEY THEN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE NORTH VALLEY AND
MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY THUNDER
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES...BUT LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAKES THAT NOT CERTAIN EITHER. TJ/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE GENERAL
TREND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER WEATHER. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRUSHING BY THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY...BUT KEEPS MOST OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR LATE
TUESDAY DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES RETURN
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE GO
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE USED A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH FOR
NEXT WEEKEND AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
OREGON CASCADES. /64

&&

.AVIATION...VFR INLAND. AN AREA OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO STAY CLOSE
TO THE COASTLINE WITH POCKETS OF IFR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST. EXPECT STRATUS AND IFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO
NORTH COAST LATER TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS OVER SW OREGON/NOCAL WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
CUMULUS BUILD UPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE EUGENE AND
PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS SALEM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PRESSURE
PATTERN. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 25 KTS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN EASING MONDAY.

THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS IS PRODUCING CHOPPY SEAS OF 6 TO 7
FT WITH SHORT PERIODS MAKING IT ROUGH FOR BOATS VENTURING OUT FOR
RECREATION. TW

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 05Z FOR
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 5-6. MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER
THE NORTH ZONES...NORTH OF A LINE FROM AROUND BENTON COUNTY EAST TO
MT. JEFFERSON. MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FILTERING INTO THE SOUTH
ZONES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 4 VALUES...HELPING TO
REDUCE POTENTIAL COLUMN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. ONE OTHER NEAR-TERM
CONCERN IS LIGHTNING IN THE FAR SE PART OF THE AREA. AT 22Z A FEW
STRIKES NOTED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST NEAR WILLAMETTE PASS. FEEL ANY
CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ZONE 608 AND PERHAPS
THE EAST HALF OF ZONE 606. CONVECTIVE THREAT SPREADS NORTH AND WEST
SUNDAY AS SOUTH FLOW ALOFT FURTHER NORTH AND 500 MB RIDGE AXIS
GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTH AS WELL. HAVE SPREAD MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE S WA CASCADES SUN EVENING THROUGH MON MORNING. WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS FOR SUN...BUT FOR NOW FEEL LIKE
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG. ALSO...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER THE S HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY WILL TEND TO BECOME
WETTER DUE TO THE LONGER-DURATION MOIST SOUTH FLOW. CONVECTIVE
THREAT GETS PUSHED EAST OF THE CASCADES MON NIGHT AND TUE...WITH ANY
THREAT TUE NEAR THE CREST OF ZONE 608. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST RANGE-MT.HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE CREST-NORTH
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE-
     WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST-WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-
     LOWER COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER
     VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK COUNTY
     LOWLANDS-EAST WILLAPA HILLS-EXTREME SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WATERS

     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 020331
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
831 PM PDT SAT AUG  1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY MAINTAINING HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL STEER SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER WESTERN
OREGON INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
OREGON CASCADES...WITH SOME DEBRIS MOISTURE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
CASCADES LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR GRADUAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WE HAD ANOTHER TEMPERATURE RECORD BREAKING DAY TODAY
WITH FIVE CLIMATE LOCATIONS SETTING NEW DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS.

A LOW OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS HELPING TO STEER MONSOONAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN OREGON. THE LOW AND THE MOISTURE HAS
RESULTED IN QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE PORTLAND
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS
BRUSHED ALONG THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STORMS ARE WINDING DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
LANE COUNTY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT INLAND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF
ONSHORE WINDS. THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP STEER THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH FURTHER NORTHWARD OVER NW OREGON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW
OREGON SUNDAY.

THE INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. INTERIOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S RATHER THAN THE TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES OF LATE.
HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED TO REPLACE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE
INTERIOR LOW LANDS WITH A HEAT ADVISORY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A
DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO DROP THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE
COAST RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY
SOME MARINE CLOUDS REACHING PORTLAND AND EUGENE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO KEEP INLAND TEMPERATURES JUST AROUND 90. THUNDER AFTER MONDAY
MORNING WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER CASCADES AND IN THE
SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE MODELS INDICATE A BETTER MARINE INTRUSION INLAND ON TUESDAY
MORNING AND WENT WITH MORE MORNING CLOUDS IN THE NORTH VALLEY THEN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE NORTH VALLEY AND
MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY THUNDER
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES...BUT LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAKES THAT NOT CERTAIN EITHER. TJ/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE GENERAL
TREND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER WEATHER. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRUSHING BY THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY...BUT KEEPS MOST OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR LATE
TUESDAY DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES RETURN
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE GO
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE USED A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH FOR
NEXT WEEKEND AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
OREGON CASCADES. /64

&&

.AVIATION...VFR INLAND. AN AREA OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO STAY CLOSE
TO THE COASTLINE WITH POCKETS OF IFR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST. EXPECT STRATUS AND IFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO
NORTH COAST LATER TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS OVER SW OREGON/NOCAL WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
CUMULUS BUILD UPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE EUGENE AND
PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS SALEM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PRESSURE
PATTERN. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 25 KTS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN EASING MONDAY.

THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS IS PRODUCING CHOPPY SEAS OF 6 TO 7
FT WITH SHORT PERIODS MAKING IT ROUGH FOR BOATS VENTURING OUT FOR
RECREATION. TW

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 05Z FOR
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 5-6. MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER
THE NORTH ZONES...NORTH OF A LINE FROM AROUND BENTON COUNTY EAST TO
MT. JEFFERSON. MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FILTERING INTO THE SOUTH
ZONES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 4 VALUES...HELPING TO
REDUCE POTENTIAL COLUMN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. ONE OTHER NEAR-TERM
CONCERN IS LIGHTNING IN THE FAR SE PART OF THE AREA. AT 22Z A FEW
STRIKES NOTED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST NEAR WILLAMETTE PASS. FEEL ANY
CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ZONE 608 AND PERHAPS
THE EAST HALF OF ZONE 606. CONVECTIVE THREAT SPREADS NORTH AND WEST
SUNDAY AS SOUTH FLOW ALOFT FURTHER NORTH AND 500 MB RIDGE AXIS
GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTH AS WELL. HAVE SPREAD MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE S WA CASCADES SUN EVENING THROUGH MON MORNING. WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS FOR SUN...BUT FOR NOW FEEL LIKE
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG. ALSO...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER THE S HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY WILL TEND TO BECOME
WETTER DUE TO THE LONGER-DURATION MOIST SOUTH FLOW. CONVECTIVE
THREAT GETS PUSHED EAST OF THE CASCADES MON NIGHT AND TUE...WITH ANY
THREAT TUE NEAR THE CREST OF ZONE 608. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST RANGE-MT.HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE CREST-NORTH
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE-
     WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST-WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-
     LOWER COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER
     VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK COUNTY
     LOWLANDS-EAST WILLAPA HILLS-EXTREME SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WATERS

     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 020317
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
817 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR COOLER
WEATHER. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS LATER IN THE WEEK

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE
SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING.
IN GENERAL...THE WEATHER WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY...SUNNY
AND VERY WARM. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY COOL SLIGHTLY BUT
INLAND AREAS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH RECORD HIGHS AGAIN. A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY FROM SEATTLE SOUTH.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO
NEAR THE COAST MONDAY MORNING BUT HIGHS WILL COOL OVER THE
INTERIOR BY SEVERAL DEGREES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER NEAR THE CASCADE CREST AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
INCREASE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THERE
SHOULD BE MORNING CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE FOR THE
INTERIOR AND HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER TROUGH IN BRITISH
COLUMBIA CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MAINLY IT IS A MATTER OF
DEPRESSING THE HEIGHTS AND GIVING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS. HAVE KEPT THE LOWLANDS DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS PAST BY FRIDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE ACTUALLY
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WHOLE AREA INCLUDING THE
MOUNTAINS DRY...WITH SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND. BURKE


&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WEST FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT WILL
BECOME SW ON SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE STABLE AND DRY...EXCEPT
FOR SHALLOW MARINE MOISTURE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

MARINE STRATUS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER
THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING LOCAL IFR
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS W WA.

KSEA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR GOOD VFR
CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH 5-10 KT THIS EVENING
BECOMING NE 3-7 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. KAM

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES WILL RESULT IN STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TWO INNER COASTAL WATERS ZONES. HIGH END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WESTERLIES ARE LIKELY IN THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND GALES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. GALE FORCE WESTERLIES ARE A GOOD BET
THERE MONDAY NIGHT. MCDONNAL/KAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH
HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE VERY DRY AIR MASS IN RECENT DAYS WILL
START TO LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE AREA ON SUNDAY. IN FACT...AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND EXIT EAST TO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AIR
MASS TO MOISTEN JUST ENOUGH TO LET THE RED FLAG WARNINGS EXPIRE
THIS EVENING. ONCE THE RED FLAG WARNING DOES EXPIRE LATE THIS
EVENING...IT JUST MEANS THAT WEATHER WILL BE LESS OF AN
AGGRAVATING FACTOR IN THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT. BACKGROUND FIRE DANGER
WILL STILL BE ELEVATED DUE TO DRY FUELS.

THE NEW WRINKLE IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST IS THE INTRODUCTION OF
ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING TO THE CASCADES FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL
EARLY MONDAY EVENING. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST...SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AND BRING NORTH THE NEEDED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. TODAY`S MODELS CAME AROUND TO SHOWING THE CASCADES AT
THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF A LARGER-SCALE LIGHTNING RISK AREA. THE FIRST
THREAT OVER THE CASCADES WILL BE FROM HIGH-BASED NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION THAT COULD BRING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING TO THE CASCADES
FROM MOUNT RAINIER ON SOUTH IN THE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY.
THE LIGHTNING THREAT WILL REACH THE NORTH CASCADES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN END ON MONDAY EVENING. A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND
THE STEADY FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS IS A RECIPE FOR SUB-
WETTING RAINS WITH ANY STORMS. HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR BELLEVUE AND VICINITY-
     EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-SEATTLE AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST
     INTERIOR-TACOMA AREA.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     CASCADES-EAST PORTION OF THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS-NORTH
     CASCADES-WEST PORTION OF THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT
     10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL U.S.
     WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 020317
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
817 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR COOLER
WEATHER. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS LATER IN THE WEEK

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE
SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING.
IN GENERAL...THE WEATHER WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY...SUNNY
AND VERY WARM. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY COOL SLIGHTLY BUT
INLAND AREAS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH RECORD HIGHS AGAIN. A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY FROM SEATTLE SOUTH.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO
NEAR THE COAST MONDAY MORNING BUT HIGHS WILL COOL OVER THE
INTERIOR BY SEVERAL DEGREES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER NEAR THE CASCADE CREST AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
INCREASE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THERE
SHOULD BE MORNING CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE FOR THE
INTERIOR AND HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER TROUGH IN BRITISH
COLUMBIA CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MAINLY IT IS A MATTER OF
DEPRESSING THE HEIGHTS AND GIVING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS. HAVE KEPT THE LOWLANDS DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS PAST BY FRIDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE ACTUALLY
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WHOLE AREA INCLUDING THE
MOUNTAINS DRY...WITH SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND. BURKE


&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WEST FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT WILL
BECOME SW ON SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE STABLE AND DRY...EXCEPT
FOR SHALLOW MARINE MOISTURE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

MARINE STRATUS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER
THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING LOCAL IFR
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS W WA.

KSEA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR GOOD VFR
CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH 5-10 KT THIS EVENING
BECOMING NE 3-7 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. KAM

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES WILL RESULT IN STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TWO INNER COASTAL WATERS ZONES. HIGH END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WESTERLIES ARE LIKELY IN THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND GALES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. GALE FORCE WESTERLIES ARE A GOOD BET
THERE MONDAY NIGHT. MCDONNAL/KAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH
HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE VERY DRY AIR MASS IN RECENT DAYS WILL
START TO LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE AREA ON SUNDAY. IN FACT...AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND EXIT EAST TO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AIR
MASS TO MOISTEN JUST ENOUGH TO LET THE RED FLAG WARNINGS EXPIRE
THIS EVENING. ONCE THE RED FLAG WARNING DOES EXPIRE LATE THIS
EVENING...IT JUST MEANS THAT WEATHER WILL BE LESS OF AN
AGGRAVATING FACTOR IN THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT. BACKGROUND FIRE DANGER
WILL STILL BE ELEVATED DUE TO DRY FUELS.

THE NEW WRINKLE IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST IS THE INTRODUCTION OF
ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING TO THE CASCADES FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL
EARLY MONDAY EVENING. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST...SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AND BRING NORTH THE NEEDED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. TODAY`S MODELS CAME AROUND TO SHOWING THE CASCADES AT
THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF A LARGER-SCALE LIGHTNING RISK AREA. THE FIRST
THREAT OVER THE CASCADES WILL BE FROM HIGH-BASED NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION THAT COULD BRING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING TO THE CASCADES
FROM MOUNT RAINIER ON SOUTH IN THE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY.
THE LIGHTNING THREAT WILL REACH THE NORTH CASCADES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN END ON MONDAY EVENING. A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND
THE STEADY FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS IS A RECIPE FOR SUB-
WETTING RAINS WITH ANY STORMS. HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR BELLEVUE AND VICINITY-
     EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-SEATTLE AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST
     INTERIOR-TACOMA AREA.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     CASCADES-EAST PORTION OF THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS-NORTH
     CASCADES-WEST PORTION OF THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT
     10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL U.S.
     WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KOTX 020028
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
528 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Expect a very hot weekend with afternoon temperatures in the mid
90s to near 105. The ongoing drought combined with high heat and
low humidity will raise concerns for wildfires the next several
days. A cold front will bring temperatures back closer to average
on Tuesday. Temperatures Wednesday through Friday will likely be
at or below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday: No changes to the fcst outside of increasing
the areal coverage of smoke near the Cascades. Visibilities will
likely remain obscured to less than one mile for certainly the
immediate Lake Chelan area from the Wolverine fire. Low temps were
warmed a bit also in these smoke-filled valleys based on low temps
this morning.bz

Sunday night through Wednesday: Models are back in pretty good
agreement of the large scale synoptic pattern through the first
part of the work week. They are showing a wave move up from the
south Sunday night through Monday. With this wave will be an
increase in moisture and some very weak instability. Have added
some sprinkles and thunderstorms to the forecast. Expect the area
of sprinkles and thunderstorms to move up into the central
Cascades early Monday morning and then spread north and east
through the day and out of the area by Tuesday morning. With the
additional cloud cover Sunday night and Monday night have
increased temperatures several degrees to about 6-10 degrees above
average for this time of the year. Tuesday and Wednesday we
transition into a more west or northwesterly flow as an upper
level low pressure system moves into central British Columbia. The
track of this low is indicative of breezy winds in the Cascades,
Columbia Basin and into the Palouse and Spokane/CDA areas (about
10-20 mph). The best chance of showers or thunderstorms will
reside across the mountains. Daytime Temperatures will finally
drop to around average for Tuesday and maybe even below average
for Wednesday. /Nisbet

Wednesday night through Saturday: Expect relatively cool
temperatures and a few opportunities for showers mainly around
the mountains. Model agreement regarding the precise evolution of
the pattern degrades with a lack of solid consistency. Loose
agreement suggests an upper trough will continue to migrate across
the Pacific NW early this period. This is followed by brief
shortwave ridging before another trough approaches. Additionally
the low spinning off the CA coast moves inland and potentially by
southeast WA and southern ID late next week. In short,
shower/t-storm chances will linger around the Cascades and
northern mountains Thursday and return here and toward the Blues
through central Panhandle Saturday with approach of the next
trough from the west and possible wave approaching from the south.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal early this
period, warming back closer to an above normal by late in the
period. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A large plume of elevated smoke will continue to track
towards Grand Coulee, Spokane, and Coeur D`Alene areas tonight
but prevailing surface visibilities should remain VFR...although a
fire near Sprague could track smoke up towards KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. As
the inversions sets in...lower level smoke will increase around
Chelan, with the BlueSky model keeping this smoke east of KEAT
again...but impacting KMWH overnight into Sunday morning.
Confidence is not high concerning timing of MVFR visibility as
KMWH...so went with a compromise between timing of BlueSky model
and persistance. Some improvement is expected Sunday afternoon at
KMWH as surface winds switch from N-NW to SW. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        63  97  70  94  67  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  96  63  94  64  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Pullman        56  97  62  92  60  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       66 103  72  98  69  95 /   0   0  10  10  20  10
Colville       56  99  62  95  62  89 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Sandpoint      50  95  58  91  60  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Kellogg        58  95  58  94  61  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Moses Lake     59  99  69  97  64  93 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee      68  98  76  96  70  91 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Omak           60 100  70  98  64  92 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
Asotin Counties.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 020028
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
528 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Expect a very hot weekend with afternoon temperatures in the mid
90s to near 105. The ongoing drought combined with high heat and
low humidity will raise concerns for wildfires the next several
days. A cold front will bring temperatures back closer to average
on Tuesday. Temperatures Wednesday through Friday will likely be
at or below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday: No changes to the fcst outside of increasing
the areal coverage of smoke near the Cascades. Visibilities will
likely remain obscured to less than one mile for certainly the
immediate Lake Chelan area from the Wolverine fire. Low temps were
warmed a bit also in these smoke-filled valleys based on low temps
this morning.bz

Sunday night through Wednesday: Models are back in pretty good
agreement of the large scale synoptic pattern through the first
part of the work week. They are showing a wave move up from the
south Sunday night through Monday. With this wave will be an
increase in moisture and some very weak instability. Have added
some sprinkles and thunderstorms to the forecast. Expect the area
of sprinkles and thunderstorms to move up into the central
Cascades early Monday morning and then spread north and east
through the day and out of the area by Tuesday morning. With the
additional cloud cover Sunday night and Monday night have
increased temperatures several degrees to about 6-10 degrees above
average for this time of the year. Tuesday and Wednesday we
transition into a more west or northwesterly flow as an upper
level low pressure system moves into central British Columbia. The
track of this low is indicative of breezy winds in the Cascades,
Columbia Basin and into the Palouse and Spokane/CDA areas (about
10-20 mph). The best chance of showers or thunderstorms will
reside across the mountains. Daytime Temperatures will finally
drop to around average for Tuesday and maybe even below average
for Wednesday. /Nisbet

Wednesday night through Saturday: Expect relatively cool
temperatures and a few opportunities for showers mainly around
the mountains. Model agreement regarding the precise evolution of
the pattern degrades with a lack of solid consistency. Loose
agreement suggests an upper trough will continue to migrate across
the Pacific NW early this period. This is followed by brief
shortwave ridging before another trough approaches. Additionally
the low spinning off the CA coast moves inland and potentially by
southeast WA and southern ID late next week. In short,
shower/t-storm chances will linger around the Cascades and
northern mountains Thursday and return here and toward the Blues
through central Panhandle Saturday with approach of the next
trough from the west and possible wave approaching from the south.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal early this
period, warming back closer to an above normal by late in the
period. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A large plume of elevated smoke will continue to track
towards Grand Coulee, Spokane, and Coeur D`Alene areas tonight
but prevailing surface visibilities should remain VFR...although a
fire near Sprague could track smoke up towards KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. As
the inversions sets in...lower level smoke will increase around
Chelan, with the BlueSky model keeping this smoke east of KEAT
again...but impacting KMWH overnight into Sunday morning.
Confidence is not high concerning timing of MVFR visibility as
KMWH...so went with a compromise between timing of BlueSky model
and persistance. Some improvement is expected Sunday afternoon at
KMWH as surface winds switch from N-NW to SW. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        63  97  70  94  67  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  96  63  94  64  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Pullman        56  97  62  92  60  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       66 103  72  98  69  95 /   0   0  10  10  20  10
Colville       56  99  62  95  62  89 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Sandpoint      50  95  58  91  60  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Kellogg        58  95  58  94  61  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Moses Lake     59  99  69  97  64  93 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee      68  98  76  96  70  91 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Omak           60 100  70  98  64  92 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 020028
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
528 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Expect a very hot weekend with afternoon temperatures in the mid
90s to near 105. The ongoing drought combined with high heat and
low humidity will raise concerns for wildfires the next several
days. A cold front will bring temperatures back closer to average
on Tuesday. Temperatures Wednesday through Friday will likely be
at or below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday: No changes to the fcst outside of increasing
the areal coverage of smoke near the Cascades. Visibilities will
likely remain obscured to less than one mile for certainly the
immediate Lake Chelan area from the Wolverine fire. Low temps were
warmed a bit also in these smoke-filled valleys based on low temps
this morning.bz

Sunday night through Wednesday: Models are back in pretty good
agreement of the large scale synoptic pattern through the first
part of the work week. They are showing a wave move up from the
south Sunday night through Monday. With this wave will be an
increase in moisture and some very weak instability. Have added
some sprinkles and thunderstorms to the forecast. Expect the area
of sprinkles and thunderstorms to move up into the central
Cascades early Monday morning and then spread north and east
through the day and out of the area by Tuesday morning. With the
additional cloud cover Sunday night and Monday night have
increased temperatures several degrees to about 6-10 degrees above
average for this time of the year. Tuesday and Wednesday we
transition into a more west or northwesterly flow as an upper
level low pressure system moves into central British Columbia. The
track of this low is indicative of breezy winds in the Cascades,
Columbia Basin and into the Palouse and Spokane/CDA areas (about
10-20 mph). The best chance of showers or thunderstorms will
reside across the mountains. Daytime Temperatures will finally
drop to around average for Tuesday and maybe even below average
for Wednesday. /Nisbet

Wednesday night through Saturday: Expect relatively cool
temperatures and a few opportunities for showers mainly around
the mountains. Model agreement regarding the precise evolution of
the pattern degrades with a lack of solid consistency. Loose
agreement suggests an upper trough will continue to migrate across
the Pacific NW early this period. This is followed by brief
shortwave ridging before another trough approaches. Additionally
the low spinning off the CA coast moves inland and potentially by
southeast WA and southern ID late next week. In short,
shower/t-storm chances will linger around the Cascades and
northern mountains Thursday and return here and toward the Blues
through central Panhandle Saturday with approach of the next
trough from the west and possible wave approaching from the south.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal early this
period, warming back closer to an above normal by late in the
period. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A large plume of elevated smoke will continue to track
towards Grand Coulee, Spokane, and Coeur D`Alene areas tonight
but prevailing surface visibilities should remain VFR...although a
fire near Sprague could track smoke up towards KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. As
the inversions sets in...lower level smoke will increase around
Chelan, with the BlueSky model keeping this smoke east of KEAT
again...but impacting KMWH overnight into Sunday morning.
Confidence is not high concerning timing of MVFR visibility as
KMWH...so went with a compromise between timing of BlueSky model
and persistance. Some improvement is expected Sunday afternoon at
KMWH as surface winds switch from N-NW to SW. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        63  97  70  94  67  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  96  63  94  64  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Pullman        56  97  62  92  60  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       66 103  72  98  69  95 /   0   0  10  10  20  10
Colville       56  99  62  95  62  89 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Sandpoint      50  95  58  91  60  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Kellogg        58  95  58  94  61  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Moses Lake     59  99  69  97  64  93 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee      68  98  76  96  70  91 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Omak           60 100  70  98  64  92 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
Asotin Counties.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSEW 012251
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
400 PM 900 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR COOLER
WEATHER. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY IS ANOTHER 90+ DEGREE DAY FOR THE INTERIOR FROM
SEATTLE SOUTHWARD. HEIGHTS SUNDAY ARE JUST A TAD LOWER SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER.
STILL LOOKING AT 90 DEGREES SUNDAY FOR THE SEATTLE AREA. THE HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THE INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

MODELS SHOW SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE CASCADES
BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY EVENING. HAVE
ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CASCADES THEN. OTHERWISE
MONDAY LOOKS MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOLER. HEIGHTS FALL INTO THE 570S AS
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER INLAND AREAS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
HEIGHTS FALL FURTHER OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. SOME MODELS HAVE HAD A
FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER WASHINGTON AS THIS TROUGH MOVES PAST
THE AREA. HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE PRETTY DRY NOW. HAVE
REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE
LOWLANDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S
WITH SOME LOW 80S OVER THE SOUTH INTERIOR. BURKE

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER TROUGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MAINLY IT IS A MATTER OF DEPRESSING THE HEIGHTS AND GIVING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE KEPT THE LOWLANDS DRY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS PAST BY FRIDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE ACTUALLY
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WHOLE AREA INCLUDING THE
MOUNTAINS DRY...WITH SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND. BURKE

&&

.CLIMATE...JULY 2015 WAS THE WARMEST MONTH ON RECORD IN SEATTLE WITH
AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 71.2 DEGREES. THE OLD RECORD WAS 71.1
DEGREES SET IN AUGUST OF 1967. THIS RECORD INCLUDES THE FEDERAL
BUILDING RECORDS WHICH GO BACK TO THE 1890S.

IT WAS THE WARMEST JULY ON RECORD AT BOTH HOQUIAM AND FORKS. AT
HOQUIAM THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR JULY WAS 63.9 DEGREES BREAKING
THE RECORD OF 63.0 DEGREES SET IN 1958. AT FORKS THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 63.0 DEGREES BREAKING THE RECORD OF 61.4 SET IN
1990. RECORDS BEGAN IN HOQUIAM IN 1953 AND AT FORKS IN 1966.

OTHER LOCATIONS AROUND WESTERN WASHINGTON...AT BELLINGHAM IT WAS THE
2ND WARMEST JULY ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 67.2. THE
RECORD IS 68.0 DEGREES SET IN 1958. OLYMPIA ALSO HAD THE SECOND
WARMEST JULY ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 68.0 DEGREES.
THE RECORD IS 69.1 SET ALSO IN 1958. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE STABLE
AND DRY...EXCEPT FOR SHALLOW MARINE MOISTURE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO
THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING LOCAL IFR
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

KSEA...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND MOSTLY 4-10 KT.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES WILL RESULT IN STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWESTERLIES THIS EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO
INNER COASTAL WATERS ZONES. HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES
ARE LIKELY IN THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE
STRAIT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND GALES ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. GALE FORCE WESTERLIES ARE A GOOD BET THERE MONDAY NIGHT.
MCDONNAL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE VERY DRY AIR MASS IN RECENT DAYS WILL START TO LOOSEN ITS GRIP
ON THE AREA ON SUNDAY. IN FACT...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS
WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND EXIT EAST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY
SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO MOISTEN JUST ENOUGH
TO LET THE RED FLAG WARNINGS EXPIRE THIS EVENING. ONCE THE RED FLAG
WARNING DOES EXPIRE LATE THIS EVENING...IT JUST MEANS THAT WEATHER
WILL BE LESS OF AN AGGRAVATING FACTOR IN THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT.
BACKGROUND FIRE DANGER WILL STILL BE ELEVATED DUE TO DRY FUELS.

THE NEW WRINKLE IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST IS THE INTRODUCTION OF
ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING TO THE CASCADES FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL
EARLY MONDAY EVENING. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST...SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AND BRING NORTH THE NEEDED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. TODAY`S MODELS CAME AROUND TO SHOWING THE CASCADES AT
THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF A LARGER-SCALE LIGHTNING RISK AREA. THE FIRST
THREAT OVER THE CASCADES WILL BE FROM HIGH-BASED NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION THAT COULD BRING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING TO THE CASCADES
FROM MOUNT RAINIER ON SOUTH IN THE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY.
THE LIGHTNING THREAT WILL REACH THE NORTH CASCADES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN END ON MONDAY EVENING. A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND
THE STEADY FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS IS A RECIPE FOR SUB-
WETTING RAINS WITH ANY STORMS.HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT TIL 8 PM SUNDAY FOR PARTS OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

     RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TIL 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE
CASCADES AND OLYMPICS ABOVE 2000 FEET.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND TWO SOUTHERN
      INNER COASTAL WATERS ZONES...CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA...EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.

&&

$$

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 012251
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
400 PM 900 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR COOLER
WEATHER. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY IS ANOTHER 90+ DEGREE DAY FOR THE INTERIOR FROM
SEATTLE SOUTHWARD. HEIGHTS SUNDAY ARE JUST A TAD LOWER SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER.
STILL LOOKING AT 90 DEGREES SUNDAY FOR THE SEATTLE AREA. THE HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THE INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

MODELS SHOW SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE CASCADES
BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY EVENING. HAVE
ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CASCADES THEN. OTHERWISE
MONDAY LOOKS MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOLER. HEIGHTS FALL INTO THE 570S AS
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER INLAND AREAS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
HEIGHTS FALL FURTHER OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. SOME MODELS HAVE HAD A
FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER WASHINGTON AS THIS TROUGH MOVES PAST
THE AREA. HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE PRETTY DRY NOW. HAVE
REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE
LOWLANDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S
WITH SOME LOW 80S OVER THE SOUTH INTERIOR. BURKE

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER TROUGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MAINLY IT IS A MATTER OF DEPRESSING THE HEIGHTS AND GIVING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE KEPT THE LOWLANDS DRY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS PAST BY FRIDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE ACTUALLY
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WHOLE AREA INCLUDING THE
MOUNTAINS DRY...WITH SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND. BURKE

&&

.CLIMATE...JULY 2015 WAS THE WARMEST MONTH ON RECORD IN SEATTLE WITH
AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 71.2 DEGREES. THE OLD RECORD WAS 71.1
DEGREES SET IN AUGUST OF 1967. THIS RECORD INCLUDES THE FEDERAL
BUILDING RECORDS WHICH GO BACK TO THE 1890S.

IT WAS THE WARMEST JULY ON RECORD AT BOTH HOQUIAM AND FORKS. AT
HOQUIAM THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR JULY WAS 63.9 DEGREES BREAKING
THE RECORD OF 63.0 DEGREES SET IN 1958. AT FORKS THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 63.0 DEGREES BREAKING THE RECORD OF 61.4 SET IN
1990. RECORDS BEGAN IN HOQUIAM IN 1953 AND AT FORKS IN 1966.

OTHER LOCATIONS AROUND WESTERN WASHINGTON...AT BELLINGHAM IT WAS THE
2ND WARMEST JULY ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 67.2. THE
RECORD IS 68.0 DEGREES SET IN 1958. OLYMPIA ALSO HAD THE SECOND
WARMEST JULY ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 68.0 DEGREES.
THE RECORD IS 69.1 SET ALSO IN 1958. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE STABLE
AND DRY...EXCEPT FOR SHALLOW MARINE MOISTURE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO
THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING LOCAL IFR
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

KSEA...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND MOSTLY 4-10 KT.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES WILL RESULT IN STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWESTERLIES THIS EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO
INNER COASTAL WATERS ZONES. HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES
ARE LIKELY IN THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE
STRAIT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND GALES ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. GALE FORCE WESTERLIES ARE A GOOD BET THERE MONDAY NIGHT.
MCDONNAL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE VERY DRY AIR MASS IN RECENT DAYS WILL START TO LOOSEN ITS GRIP
ON THE AREA ON SUNDAY. IN FACT...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS
WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND EXIT EAST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY
SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO MOISTEN JUST ENOUGH
TO LET THE RED FLAG WARNINGS EXPIRE THIS EVENING. ONCE THE RED FLAG
WARNING DOES EXPIRE LATE THIS EVENING...IT JUST MEANS THAT WEATHER
WILL BE LESS OF AN AGGRAVATING FACTOR IN THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT.
BACKGROUND FIRE DANGER WILL STILL BE ELEVATED DUE TO DRY FUELS.

THE NEW WRINKLE IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST IS THE INTRODUCTION OF
ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING TO THE CASCADES FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL
EARLY MONDAY EVENING. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST...SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AND BRING NORTH THE NEEDED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. TODAY`S MODELS CAME AROUND TO SHOWING THE CASCADES AT
THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF A LARGER-SCALE LIGHTNING RISK AREA. THE FIRST
THREAT OVER THE CASCADES WILL BE FROM HIGH-BASED NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION THAT COULD BRING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING TO THE CASCADES
FROM MOUNT RAINIER ON SOUTH IN THE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY.
THE LIGHTNING THREAT WILL REACH THE NORTH CASCADES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN END ON MONDAY EVENING. A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND
THE STEADY FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS IS A RECIPE FOR SUB-
WETTING RAINS WITH ANY STORMS.HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT TIL 8 PM SUNDAY FOR PARTS OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

     RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TIL 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE
CASCADES AND OLYMPICS ABOVE 2000 FEET.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND TWO SOUTHERN
      INNER COASTAL WATERS ZONES...CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA...EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.

&&

$$

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KSEW 012251
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
400 PM 900 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR COOLER
WEATHER. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY IS ANOTHER 90+ DEGREE DAY FOR THE INTERIOR FROM
SEATTLE SOUTHWARD. HEIGHTS SUNDAY ARE JUST A TAD LOWER SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER.
STILL LOOKING AT 90 DEGREES SUNDAY FOR THE SEATTLE AREA. THE HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THE INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

MODELS SHOW SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE CASCADES
BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY EVENING. HAVE
ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CASCADES THEN. OTHERWISE
MONDAY LOOKS MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOLER. HEIGHTS FALL INTO THE 570S AS
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER INLAND AREAS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
HEIGHTS FALL FURTHER OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. SOME MODELS HAVE HAD A
FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER WASHINGTON AS THIS TROUGH MOVES PAST
THE AREA. HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE PRETTY DRY NOW. HAVE
REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE
LOWLANDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S
WITH SOME LOW 80S OVER THE SOUTH INTERIOR. BURKE

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER TROUGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MAINLY IT IS A MATTER OF DEPRESSING THE HEIGHTS AND GIVING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE KEPT THE LOWLANDS DRY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS PAST BY FRIDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE ACTUALLY
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WHOLE AREA INCLUDING THE
MOUNTAINS DRY...WITH SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND. BURKE

&&

.CLIMATE...JULY 2015 WAS THE WARMEST MONTH ON RECORD IN SEATTLE WITH
AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 71.2 DEGREES. THE OLD RECORD WAS 71.1
DEGREES SET IN AUGUST OF 1967. THIS RECORD INCLUDES THE FEDERAL
BUILDING RECORDS WHICH GO BACK TO THE 1890S.

IT WAS THE WARMEST JULY ON RECORD AT BOTH HOQUIAM AND FORKS. AT
HOQUIAM THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR JULY WAS 63.9 DEGREES BREAKING
THE RECORD OF 63.0 DEGREES SET IN 1958. AT FORKS THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 63.0 DEGREES BREAKING THE RECORD OF 61.4 SET IN
1990. RECORDS BEGAN IN HOQUIAM IN 1953 AND AT FORKS IN 1966.

OTHER LOCATIONS AROUND WESTERN WASHINGTON...AT BELLINGHAM IT WAS THE
2ND WARMEST JULY ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 67.2. THE
RECORD IS 68.0 DEGREES SET IN 1958. OLYMPIA ALSO HAD THE SECOND
WARMEST JULY ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 68.0 DEGREES.
THE RECORD IS 69.1 SET ALSO IN 1958. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE STABLE
AND DRY...EXCEPT FOR SHALLOW MARINE MOISTURE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO
THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING LOCAL IFR
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

KSEA...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND MOSTLY 4-10 KT.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES WILL RESULT IN STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWESTERLIES THIS EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO
INNER COASTAL WATERS ZONES. HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES
ARE LIKELY IN THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE
STRAIT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND GALES ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. GALE FORCE WESTERLIES ARE A GOOD BET THERE MONDAY NIGHT.
MCDONNAL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE VERY DRY AIR MASS IN RECENT DAYS WILL START TO LOOSEN ITS GRIP
ON THE AREA ON SUNDAY. IN FACT...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS
WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND EXIT EAST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY
SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO MOISTEN JUST ENOUGH
TO LET THE RED FLAG WARNINGS EXPIRE THIS EVENING. ONCE THE RED FLAG
WARNING DOES EXPIRE LATE THIS EVENING...IT JUST MEANS THAT WEATHER
WILL BE LESS OF AN AGGRAVATING FACTOR IN THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT.
BACKGROUND FIRE DANGER WILL STILL BE ELEVATED DUE TO DRY FUELS.

THE NEW WRINKLE IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST IS THE INTRODUCTION OF
ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING TO THE CASCADES FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL
EARLY MONDAY EVENING. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST...SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AND BRING NORTH THE NEEDED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. TODAY`S MODELS CAME AROUND TO SHOWING THE CASCADES AT
THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF A LARGER-SCALE LIGHTNING RISK AREA. THE FIRST
THREAT OVER THE CASCADES WILL BE FROM HIGH-BASED NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION THAT COULD BRING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING TO THE CASCADES
FROM MOUNT RAINIER ON SOUTH IN THE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY.
THE LIGHTNING THREAT WILL REACH THE NORTH CASCADES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN END ON MONDAY EVENING. A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND
THE STEADY FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS IS A RECIPE FOR SUB-
WETTING RAINS WITH ANY STORMS.HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT TIL 8 PM SUNDAY FOR PARTS OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

     RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TIL 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE
CASCADES AND OLYMPICS ABOVE 2000 FEET.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND TWO SOUTHERN
      INNER COASTAL WATERS ZONES...CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA...EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.

&&

$$

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KPQR 012228
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
327 PM PDT SAT AUG  1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
AROUND 590 DM WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL STEER SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
WESTERN OREGON THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE OREGON CASCADES
INITIALLY...WITH SOME DEBRIS MOISTURE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE CASCADES
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A SLOWLY
DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THE
THERMAL TROUGH EAST OF THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY WILL BRING GRADUAL
COOLING TO THE AREA AFTER TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR MORE COOLING AND
POSSIBLY EVEN SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SET UP THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO
HAVE A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH 590
DM 500MB HEIGHTS INTO NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.
THERE IS A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST WITH NORTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE COAST. AN UPPER LOW IS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW SPREADING MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORM
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRAS TOWARD WESTERN OREGON...WITH
SOME LIGHTNING NEAR MEDFORD THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH OREGON COAST WITH DEEPER STRATUS
THERE...BUT THE MODELS INDICATED THESE WINDS WILL HAVE TROUBLE
REACHING OUR COAST VERY SOON DESPITE THE FAVORABLE WIND FLOW ALOFT.

WE ARE SEEING ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 23 DEG
C TODAY...SIMILAR TO THOSE FRIDAY. WE ARE SEEING A BIT OF THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TO OUR SOUTH SPREADING INTO LANE COUNTY. WE ARE
RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BEHIND FRIDAY AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL
SHOULD GET WELL UP INTO THE 90S AND POSSIBLE TOUCH 100 AT A FEW
SPOTS. REGARDING THE THUNDERSTORM DEBRIS MOVING NORTHWARD...THE
MODELS ALL SAY THE MAIN CHANCE OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE IN THE CASCADES AND HAVE CONTINUED THAT IDEA FOR NOW
BUT IT WILL BARE WATCHING.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SO NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN SINCE LAST
WEEKEND. QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LOCATED. THE MODELS SEEM PRETTY CERTAIN THAT THEY WILL SPREAD FARTHER
NORTH THROUGH THE OREGON CASCADES ON SUNDAY...BUT FEEL THAT THERE IS
A CHANCE TOWARD THE COAST RANGE ON SUNDAY. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE MORNING FORECAST ALONG THOSE LINES AND WILL STAY WITH THAT IDEA
IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

THE MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN NEVADA SPREADING
NORTH THROUGH WESTERN OREGON AND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...LIKELY MODULATED BY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY SPREAD THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES. THIS COULD BE A BETTER TRIGGER FOR SOME
CONVECTION IN THE VALLEYS AS WELL AND CLOSE TO THE COAST RANGE.

THE MODELS SHOW THE THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING BACK OVER THE WESTERN
VALLEY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOVING EAST OF THE CASCADES ON
SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE. AFTER POSSIBLY FLIRTING
WITH 100 AGAIN IN MANY INLAND AREAS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPS
INLAND WILL PROBABLY FALL INTO 90 TO 95 RANGE ON SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME MARINE
CLOUDS REACHING PORTLAND AND EUGENE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
INLAND TEMPS NOT MUCH ABOVE 90..IF THAT.

THUNDER AFTER MONDAY MORNING WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
CASCADES AND IN THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE MODELS INDICATE A BIT BETTER MARINE INTRUSION INLAND ON TUESDAY
MORNING AND WENT WITH MORE MORNING CLOUDS IN THE NORTH VALLEY THEN.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE NORTH VALLEY AND MID TO
UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY THUNDER ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES...BUT LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAKES THAT NOT CERTAIN EITHER. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THE GENERAL TREND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
TOWARDS COOLER WEATHER. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRUSHING BY THE REGION LATE TUESDAY...BUT KEEPS MOST OF THE
ENERGY TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR LATE TUESDAY DUE TO SOME LINGERING
INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES RETURN TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS BY
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS
SUCH...HAVE USED A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON
CASCADES. /64
&&

.AVIATION...VFR INLAND. A RIBBON OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO HUG THE
COASTLINE AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF MOVING ONSHORE AFTER BURNED OFF THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE EARLIER. STILL FEEL THERE IS A MODERATE OR BETTER
CHANCE OF IT RETURNING INLAND THIS EVENING WITH IMPACTS LIKELY
LIMITED TO KAST AND KONP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. CONVECTION DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM EARLIER ARE REMAINING HIGH LEVEL WITH RADAR INDICATING SOME
VIRGA FROM THEM. NEW CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE SISKIYOUS AND
THE SOUTH CASCADES WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER
THE CENTRAL CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BETTER CHANCE FOR
IMPACTS TO THE TAF TERMINALS WILL HAPPEN OVERNIGHT FROM ADDITIONAL
DEBRIS DRIFTING NORTH BRINGING ALTO CUMULUS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWER
POTENTIAL. DEEPER CONVECTION BECOMES POSSIBLE CLOSER TOWARD 03/00Z
FOR INLAND AREAS INCLUDING KEUG AND NORTH THROUGH KSLE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH DENSER MID-LEVEL
POCKETS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
LONGER RANGE EASTERN APPROACHES THROUGH 02/02Z. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PRESSURE PATTERN.
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHERLY COMPONENT WINDS OVER THE WATERS WITH
VARYING DEGREES OF STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENT SET OF
WINDS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON AND EVENING GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS ACROSS THE
FULL SET OF WATERS. THE INNER WATER SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF AROUND
SUNSET WHILE THE OUTER WATERS CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL
SET OF GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
EASING BELOW CRITERIA FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE SPLIT THE
ADVISORY FOR WINDS TO BETTER REFLECT EXPECTED CONDITIONS AND ALSO FOR
WHAT REALITY HAS BROUGHT THE PAST 48 HOUR.

THIS LONGER TIME FRAME OF PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS IS PRODUCING
CHOPPY SEAS AND HAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND THE 7 FT SQUARE SEA MINIMUM
CRITERIA. REALITY IS SHOWING SEAS ABOUT A FOOT BELOW WW3 GUIDANCE SO
HAVE DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AT THIS TIME
BUT STILL FEEL LIKE WE ARE WALKING A FINE LINE. OTHERWISE /JBONK
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 05Z FOR
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 5-6. MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER
THE NORTH ZONES...NORTH OF A LINE FROM AROUND BENTON COUNTY EAST TO
MT. JEFFERSON. MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FILTERING INTO THE SOUTH
ZONES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 4 VALUES...HELPING TO
REDUCE POTENTIAL COLUMN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. ONE OTHER NEAR-TERM
CONCERN IS LIGHTNING IN THE FAR SE PART OF THE AREA. AT 22Z A FEW
STRIKES NOTED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST NEAR WILLAMETTE PASS. FEEL ANY
CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ZONE 608 AND PERHAPS
THE EAST HALF OF ZONE 606. CONVECTIVE THREAT SPREADS NORTH AND WEST
SUNDAY AS SOUTH FLOW ALOFT FURTHER NORTH AND 500 MB RIDGE AXIS
GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTH AS WELL. HAVE SPREAD MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE S WA CASCADES SUN EVENING THROUGH MON MORNING. WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS FOR SUN...BUT FOR NOW FEEL LIKE
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG. ALSO...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER THE S HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY WILL TEND TO BECOME
WETTER DUE TO THE LONGER-DURATION MOIST SOUTH FLOW. CONVECTIVE
THREAT GETS PUSHED EAST OF THE CASCADES MON NIGHT AND TUE...WITH ANY
THREAT TUE NEAR THE CREST OF ZONE 608. WEISHAAR
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD
     RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST RANGE-MT. HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE
     CREST-NORTH OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE-
     WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST-WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS
     IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-
     NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

WA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK COUNTY
     LOWLANDS-EAST WILLAPA HILLS-EXTREME SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.
&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 012228
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
327 PM PDT SAT AUG  1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
AROUND 590 DM WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL STEER SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
WESTERN OREGON THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE OREGON CASCADES
INITIALLY...WITH SOME DEBRIS MOISTURE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE CASCADES
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A SLOWLY
DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THE
THERMAL TROUGH EAST OF THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY WILL BRING GRADUAL
COOLING TO THE AREA AFTER TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR MORE COOLING AND
POSSIBLY EVEN SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SET UP THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO
HAVE A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH 590
DM 500MB HEIGHTS INTO NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.
THERE IS A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST WITH NORTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE COAST. AN UPPER LOW IS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW SPREADING MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORM
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRAS TOWARD WESTERN OREGON...WITH
SOME LIGHTNING NEAR MEDFORD THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH OREGON COAST WITH DEEPER STRATUS
THERE...BUT THE MODELS INDICATED THESE WINDS WILL HAVE TROUBLE
REACHING OUR COAST VERY SOON DESPITE THE FAVORABLE WIND FLOW ALOFT.

WE ARE SEEING ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 23 DEG
C TODAY...SIMILAR TO THOSE FRIDAY. WE ARE SEEING A BIT OF THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TO OUR SOUTH SPREADING INTO LANE COUNTY. WE ARE
RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BEHIND FRIDAY AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL
SHOULD GET WELL UP INTO THE 90S AND POSSIBLE TOUCH 100 AT A FEW
SPOTS. REGARDING THE THUNDERSTORM DEBRIS MOVING NORTHWARD...THE
MODELS ALL SAY THE MAIN CHANCE OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE IN THE CASCADES AND HAVE CONTINUED THAT IDEA FOR NOW
BUT IT WILL BARE WATCHING.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SO NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN SINCE LAST
WEEKEND. QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LOCATED. THE MODELS SEEM PRETTY CERTAIN THAT THEY WILL SPREAD FARTHER
NORTH THROUGH THE OREGON CASCADES ON SUNDAY...BUT FEEL THAT THERE IS
A CHANCE TOWARD THE COAST RANGE ON SUNDAY. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE MORNING FORECAST ALONG THOSE LINES AND WILL STAY WITH THAT IDEA
IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

THE MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN NEVADA SPREADING
NORTH THROUGH WESTERN OREGON AND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...LIKELY MODULATED BY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY SPREAD THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES. THIS COULD BE A BETTER TRIGGER FOR SOME
CONVECTION IN THE VALLEYS AS WELL AND CLOSE TO THE COAST RANGE.

THE MODELS SHOW THE THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING BACK OVER THE WESTERN
VALLEY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOVING EAST OF THE CASCADES ON
SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE. AFTER POSSIBLY FLIRTING
WITH 100 AGAIN IN MANY INLAND AREAS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPS
INLAND WILL PROBABLY FALL INTO 90 TO 95 RANGE ON SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME MARINE
CLOUDS REACHING PORTLAND AND EUGENE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
INLAND TEMPS NOT MUCH ABOVE 90..IF THAT.

THUNDER AFTER MONDAY MORNING WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
CASCADES AND IN THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE MODELS INDICATE A BIT BETTER MARINE INTRUSION INLAND ON TUESDAY
MORNING AND WENT WITH MORE MORNING CLOUDS IN THE NORTH VALLEY THEN.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE NORTH VALLEY AND MID TO
UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY THUNDER ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES...BUT LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAKES THAT NOT CERTAIN EITHER. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THE GENERAL TREND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
TOWARDS COOLER WEATHER. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRUSHING BY THE REGION LATE TUESDAY...BUT KEEPS MOST OF THE
ENERGY TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR LATE TUESDAY DUE TO SOME LINGERING
INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES RETURN TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS BY
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS
SUCH...HAVE USED A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON
CASCADES. /64
&&

.AVIATION...VFR INLAND. A RIBBON OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO HUG THE
COASTLINE AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF MOVING ONSHORE AFTER BURNED OFF THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE EARLIER. STILL FEEL THERE IS A MODERATE OR BETTER
CHANCE OF IT RETURNING INLAND THIS EVENING WITH IMPACTS LIKELY
LIMITED TO KAST AND KONP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. CONVECTION DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM EARLIER ARE REMAINING HIGH LEVEL WITH RADAR INDICATING SOME
VIRGA FROM THEM. NEW CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE SISKIYOUS AND
THE SOUTH CASCADES WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER
THE CENTRAL CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BETTER CHANCE FOR
IMPACTS TO THE TAF TERMINALS WILL HAPPEN OVERNIGHT FROM ADDITIONAL
DEBRIS DRIFTING NORTH BRINGING ALTO CUMULUS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWER
POTENTIAL. DEEPER CONVECTION BECOMES POSSIBLE CLOSER TOWARD 03/00Z
FOR INLAND AREAS INCLUDING KEUG AND NORTH THROUGH KSLE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH DENSER MID-LEVEL
POCKETS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
LONGER RANGE EASTERN APPROACHES THROUGH 02/02Z. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PRESSURE PATTERN.
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHERLY COMPONENT WINDS OVER THE WATERS WITH
VARYING DEGREES OF STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENT SET OF
WINDS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON AND EVENING GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS ACROSS THE
FULL SET OF WATERS. THE INNER WATER SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF AROUND
SUNSET WHILE THE OUTER WATERS CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL
SET OF GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
EASING BELOW CRITERIA FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE SPLIT THE
ADVISORY FOR WINDS TO BETTER REFLECT EXPECTED CONDITIONS AND ALSO FOR
WHAT REALITY HAS BROUGHT THE PAST 48 HOUR.

THIS LONGER TIME FRAME OF PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS IS PRODUCING
CHOPPY SEAS AND HAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND THE 7 FT SQUARE SEA MINIMUM
CRITERIA. REALITY IS SHOWING SEAS ABOUT A FOOT BELOW WW3 GUIDANCE SO
HAVE DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AT THIS TIME
BUT STILL FEEL LIKE WE ARE WALKING A FINE LINE. OTHERWISE /JBONK
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 05Z FOR
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 5-6. MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER
THE NORTH ZONES...NORTH OF A LINE FROM AROUND BENTON COUNTY EAST TO
MT. JEFFERSON. MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FILTERING INTO THE SOUTH
ZONES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 4 VALUES...HELPING TO
REDUCE POTENTIAL COLUMN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. ONE OTHER NEAR-TERM
CONCERN IS LIGHTNING IN THE FAR SE PART OF THE AREA. AT 22Z A FEW
STRIKES NOTED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST NEAR WILLAMETTE PASS. FEEL ANY
CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ZONE 608 AND PERHAPS
THE EAST HALF OF ZONE 606. CONVECTIVE THREAT SPREADS NORTH AND WEST
SUNDAY AS SOUTH FLOW ALOFT FURTHER NORTH AND 500 MB RIDGE AXIS
GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTH AS WELL. HAVE SPREAD MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE S WA CASCADES SUN EVENING THROUGH MON MORNING. WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS FOR SUN...BUT FOR NOW FEEL LIKE
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG. ALSO...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER THE S HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY WILL TEND TO BECOME
WETTER DUE TO THE LONGER-DURATION MOIST SOUTH FLOW. CONVECTIVE
THREAT GETS PUSHED EAST OF THE CASCADES MON NIGHT AND TUE...WITH ANY
THREAT TUE NEAR THE CREST OF ZONE 608. WEISHAAR
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD
     RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST RANGE-MT. HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE
     CREST-NORTH OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE-
     WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST-WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS
     IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-
     NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

WA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK COUNTY
     LOWLANDS-EAST WILLAPA HILLS-EXTREME SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.
&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 012228
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
327 PM PDT SAT AUG  1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
AROUND 590 DM WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL STEER SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
WESTERN OREGON THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE OREGON CASCADES
INITIALLY...WITH SOME DEBRIS MOISTURE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE CASCADES
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A SLOWLY
DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THE
THERMAL TROUGH EAST OF THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY WILL BRING GRADUAL
COOLING TO THE AREA AFTER TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR MORE COOLING AND
POSSIBLY EVEN SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SET UP THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO
HAVE A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH 590
DM 500MB HEIGHTS INTO NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.
THERE IS A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST WITH NORTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE COAST. AN UPPER LOW IS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW SPREADING MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORM
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRAS TOWARD WESTERN OREGON...WITH
SOME LIGHTNING NEAR MEDFORD THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH OREGON COAST WITH DEEPER STRATUS
THERE...BUT THE MODELS INDICATED THESE WINDS WILL HAVE TROUBLE
REACHING OUR COAST VERY SOON DESPITE THE FAVORABLE WIND FLOW ALOFT.

WE ARE SEEING ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 23 DEG
C TODAY...SIMILAR TO THOSE FRIDAY. WE ARE SEEING A BIT OF THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TO OUR SOUTH SPREADING INTO LANE COUNTY. WE ARE
RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BEHIND FRIDAY AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL
SHOULD GET WELL UP INTO THE 90S AND POSSIBLE TOUCH 100 AT A FEW
SPOTS. REGARDING THE THUNDERSTORM DEBRIS MOVING NORTHWARD...THE
MODELS ALL SAY THE MAIN CHANCE OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE IN THE CASCADES AND HAVE CONTINUED THAT IDEA FOR NOW
BUT IT WILL BARE WATCHING.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SO NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN SINCE LAST
WEEKEND. QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LOCATED. THE MODELS SEEM PRETTY CERTAIN THAT THEY WILL SPREAD FARTHER
NORTH THROUGH THE OREGON CASCADES ON SUNDAY...BUT FEEL THAT THERE IS
A CHANCE TOWARD THE COAST RANGE ON SUNDAY. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE MORNING FORECAST ALONG THOSE LINES AND WILL STAY WITH THAT IDEA
IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

THE MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN NEVADA SPREADING
NORTH THROUGH WESTERN OREGON AND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...LIKELY MODULATED BY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY SPREAD THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES. THIS COULD BE A BETTER TRIGGER FOR SOME
CONVECTION IN THE VALLEYS AS WELL AND CLOSE TO THE COAST RANGE.

THE MODELS SHOW THE THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING BACK OVER THE WESTERN
VALLEY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOVING EAST OF THE CASCADES ON
SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE. AFTER POSSIBLY FLIRTING
WITH 100 AGAIN IN MANY INLAND AREAS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPS
INLAND WILL PROBABLY FALL INTO 90 TO 95 RANGE ON SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME MARINE
CLOUDS REACHING PORTLAND AND EUGENE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
INLAND TEMPS NOT MUCH ABOVE 90..IF THAT.

THUNDER AFTER MONDAY MORNING WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
CASCADES AND IN THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE MODELS INDICATE A BIT BETTER MARINE INTRUSION INLAND ON TUESDAY
MORNING AND WENT WITH MORE MORNING CLOUDS IN THE NORTH VALLEY THEN.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE NORTH VALLEY AND MID TO
UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY THUNDER ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES...BUT LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAKES THAT NOT CERTAIN EITHER. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THE GENERAL TREND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
TOWARDS COOLER WEATHER. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRUSHING BY THE REGION LATE TUESDAY...BUT KEEPS MOST OF THE
ENERGY TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR LATE TUESDAY DUE TO SOME LINGERING
INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES RETURN TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS BY
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS
SUCH...HAVE USED A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON
CASCADES. /64
&&

.AVIATION...VFR INLAND. A RIBBON OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO HUG THE
COASTLINE AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF MOVING ONSHORE AFTER BURNED OFF THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE EARLIER. STILL FEEL THERE IS A MODERATE OR BETTER
CHANCE OF IT RETURNING INLAND THIS EVENING WITH IMPACTS LIKELY
LIMITED TO KAST AND KONP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. CONVECTION DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM EARLIER ARE REMAINING HIGH LEVEL WITH RADAR INDICATING SOME
VIRGA FROM THEM. NEW CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE SISKIYOUS AND
THE SOUTH CASCADES WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER
THE CENTRAL CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BETTER CHANCE FOR
IMPACTS TO THE TAF TERMINALS WILL HAPPEN OVERNIGHT FROM ADDITIONAL
DEBRIS DRIFTING NORTH BRINGING ALTO CUMULUS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWER
POTENTIAL. DEEPER CONVECTION BECOMES POSSIBLE CLOSER TOWARD 03/00Z
FOR INLAND AREAS INCLUDING KEUG AND NORTH THROUGH KSLE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH DENSER MID-LEVEL
POCKETS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
LONGER RANGE EASTERN APPROACHES THROUGH 02/02Z. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PRESSURE PATTERN.
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHERLY COMPONENT WINDS OVER THE WATERS WITH
VARYING DEGREES OF STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENT SET OF
WINDS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON AND EVENING GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS ACROSS THE
FULL SET OF WATERS. THE INNER WATER SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF AROUND
SUNSET WHILE THE OUTER WATERS CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL
SET OF GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
EASING BELOW CRITERIA FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE SPLIT THE
ADVISORY FOR WINDS TO BETTER REFLECT EXPECTED CONDITIONS AND ALSO FOR
WHAT REALITY HAS BROUGHT THE PAST 48 HOUR.

THIS LONGER TIME FRAME OF PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS IS PRODUCING
CHOPPY SEAS AND HAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND THE 7 FT SQUARE SEA MINIMUM
CRITERIA. REALITY IS SHOWING SEAS ABOUT A FOOT BELOW WW3 GUIDANCE SO
HAVE DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AT THIS TIME
BUT STILL FEEL LIKE WE ARE WALKING A FINE LINE. OTHERWISE /JBONK
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 05Z FOR
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 5-6. MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER
THE NORTH ZONES...NORTH OF A LINE FROM AROUND BENTON COUNTY EAST TO
MT. JEFFERSON. MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FILTERING INTO THE SOUTH
ZONES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 4 VALUES...HELPING TO
REDUCE POTENTIAL COLUMN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. ONE OTHER NEAR-TERM
CONCERN IS LIGHTNING IN THE FAR SE PART OF THE AREA. AT 22Z A FEW
STRIKES NOTED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST NEAR WILLAMETTE PASS. FEEL ANY
CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ZONE 608 AND PERHAPS
THE EAST HALF OF ZONE 606. CONVECTIVE THREAT SPREADS NORTH AND WEST
SUNDAY AS SOUTH FLOW ALOFT FURTHER NORTH AND 500 MB RIDGE AXIS
GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTH AS WELL. HAVE SPREAD MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE S WA CASCADES SUN EVENING THROUGH MON MORNING. WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS FOR SUN...BUT FOR NOW FEEL LIKE
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG. ALSO...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER THE S HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY WILL TEND TO BECOME
WETTER DUE TO THE LONGER-DURATION MOIST SOUTH FLOW. CONVECTIVE
THREAT GETS PUSHED EAST OF THE CASCADES MON NIGHT AND TUE...WITH ANY
THREAT TUE NEAR THE CREST OF ZONE 608. WEISHAAR
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD
     RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST RANGE-MT. HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE
     CREST-NORTH OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE-
     WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST-WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS
     IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-
     NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

WA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK COUNTY
     LOWLANDS-EAST WILLAPA HILLS-EXTREME SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.
&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 012228
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
327 PM PDT SAT AUG  1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
AROUND 590 DM WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL STEER SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
WESTERN OREGON THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE OREGON CASCADES
INITIALLY...WITH SOME DEBRIS MOISTURE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE CASCADES
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A SLOWLY
DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THE
THERMAL TROUGH EAST OF THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY WILL BRING GRADUAL
COOLING TO THE AREA AFTER TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR MORE COOLING AND
POSSIBLY EVEN SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SET UP THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO
HAVE A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH 590
DM 500MB HEIGHTS INTO NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.
THERE IS A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST WITH NORTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE COAST. AN UPPER LOW IS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW SPREADING MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORM
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRAS TOWARD WESTERN OREGON...WITH
SOME LIGHTNING NEAR MEDFORD THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH OREGON COAST WITH DEEPER STRATUS
THERE...BUT THE MODELS INDICATED THESE WINDS WILL HAVE TROUBLE
REACHING OUR COAST VERY SOON DESPITE THE FAVORABLE WIND FLOW ALOFT.

WE ARE SEEING ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 23 DEG
C TODAY...SIMILAR TO THOSE FRIDAY. WE ARE SEEING A BIT OF THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TO OUR SOUTH SPREADING INTO LANE COUNTY. WE ARE
RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BEHIND FRIDAY AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL
SHOULD GET WELL UP INTO THE 90S AND POSSIBLE TOUCH 100 AT A FEW
SPOTS. REGARDING THE THUNDERSTORM DEBRIS MOVING NORTHWARD...THE
MODELS ALL SAY THE MAIN CHANCE OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE IN THE CASCADES AND HAVE CONTINUED THAT IDEA FOR NOW
BUT IT WILL BARE WATCHING.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SO NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN SINCE LAST
WEEKEND. QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LOCATED. THE MODELS SEEM PRETTY CERTAIN THAT THEY WILL SPREAD FARTHER
NORTH THROUGH THE OREGON CASCADES ON SUNDAY...BUT FEEL THAT THERE IS
A CHANCE TOWARD THE COAST RANGE ON SUNDAY. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE MORNING FORECAST ALONG THOSE LINES AND WILL STAY WITH THAT IDEA
IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

THE MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN NEVADA SPREADING
NORTH THROUGH WESTERN OREGON AND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...LIKELY MODULATED BY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY SPREAD THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES. THIS COULD BE A BETTER TRIGGER FOR SOME
CONVECTION IN THE VALLEYS AS WELL AND CLOSE TO THE COAST RANGE.

THE MODELS SHOW THE THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING BACK OVER THE WESTERN
VALLEY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOVING EAST OF THE CASCADES ON
SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE. AFTER POSSIBLY FLIRTING
WITH 100 AGAIN IN MANY INLAND AREAS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPS
INLAND WILL PROBABLY FALL INTO 90 TO 95 RANGE ON SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME MARINE
CLOUDS REACHING PORTLAND AND EUGENE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
INLAND TEMPS NOT MUCH ABOVE 90..IF THAT.

THUNDER AFTER MONDAY MORNING WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
CASCADES AND IN THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE MODELS INDICATE A BIT BETTER MARINE INTRUSION INLAND ON TUESDAY
MORNING AND WENT WITH MORE MORNING CLOUDS IN THE NORTH VALLEY THEN.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE NORTH VALLEY AND MID TO
UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY THUNDER ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES...BUT LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAKES THAT NOT CERTAIN EITHER. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THE GENERAL TREND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
TOWARDS COOLER WEATHER. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRUSHING BY THE REGION LATE TUESDAY...BUT KEEPS MOST OF THE
ENERGY TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR LATE TUESDAY DUE TO SOME LINGERING
INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES RETURN TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS BY
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS
SUCH...HAVE USED A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON
CASCADES. /64
&&

.AVIATION...VFR INLAND. A RIBBON OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO HUG THE
COASTLINE AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF MOVING ONSHORE AFTER BURNED OFF THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE EARLIER. STILL FEEL THERE IS A MODERATE OR BETTER
CHANCE OF IT RETURNING INLAND THIS EVENING WITH IMPACTS LIKELY
LIMITED TO KAST AND KONP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. CONVECTION DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM EARLIER ARE REMAINING HIGH LEVEL WITH RADAR INDICATING SOME
VIRGA FROM THEM. NEW CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE SISKIYOUS AND
THE SOUTH CASCADES WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER
THE CENTRAL CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BETTER CHANCE FOR
IMPACTS TO THE TAF TERMINALS WILL HAPPEN OVERNIGHT FROM ADDITIONAL
DEBRIS DRIFTING NORTH BRINGING ALTO CUMULUS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWER
POTENTIAL. DEEPER CONVECTION BECOMES POSSIBLE CLOSER TOWARD 03/00Z
FOR INLAND AREAS INCLUDING KEUG AND NORTH THROUGH KSLE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH DENSER MID-LEVEL
POCKETS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
LONGER RANGE EASTERN APPROACHES THROUGH 02/02Z. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PRESSURE PATTERN.
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHERLY COMPONENT WINDS OVER THE WATERS WITH
VARYING DEGREES OF STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENT SET OF
WINDS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON AND EVENING GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS ACROSS THE
FULL SET OF WATERS. THE INNER WATER SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF AROUND
SUNSET WHILE THE OUTER WATERS CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL
SET OF GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
EASING BELOW CRITERIA FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE SPLIT THE
ADVISORY FOR WINDS TO BETTER REFLECT EXPECTED CONDITIONS AND ALSO FOR
WHAT REALITY HAS BROUGHT THE PAST 48 HOUR.

THIS LONGER TIME FRAME OF PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS IS PRODUCING
CHOPPY SEAS AND HAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND THE 7 FT SQUARE SEA MINIMUM
CRITERIA. REALITY IS SHOWING SEAS ABOUT A FOOT BELOW WW3 GUIDANCE SO
HAVE DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AT THIS TIME
BUT STILL FEEL LIKE WE ARE WALKING A FINE LINE. OTHERWISE /JBONK
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 05Z FOR
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 5-6. MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER
THE NORTH ZONES...NORTH OF A LINE FROM AROUND BENTON COUNTY EAST TO
MT. JEFFERSON. MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FILTERING INTO THE SOUTH
ZONES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 4 VALUES...HELPING TO
REDUCE POTENTIAL COLUMN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. ONE OTHER NEAR-TERM
CONCERN IS LIGHTNING IN THE FAR SE PART OF THE AREA. AT 22Z A FEW
STRIKES NOTED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST NEAR WILLAMETTE PASS. FEEL ANY
CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ZONE 608 AND PERHAPS
THE EAST HALF OF ZONE 606. CONVECTIVE THREAT SPREADS NORTH AND WEST
SUNDAY AS SOUTH FLOW ALOFT FURTHER NORTH AND 500 MB RIDGE AXIS
GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTH AS WELL. HAVE SPREAD MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE S WA CASCADES SUN EVENING THROUGH MON MORNING. WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS FOR SUN...BUT FOR NOW FEEL LIKE
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG. ALSO...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER THE S HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY WILL TEND TO BECOME
WETTER DUE TO THE LONGER-DURATION MOIST SOUTH FLOW. CONVECTIVE
THREAT GETS PUSHED EAST OF THE CASCADES MON NIGHT AND TUE...WITH ANY
THREAT TUE NEAR THE CREST OF ZONE 608. WEISHAAR
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD
     RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST RANGE-MT. HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE
     CREST-NORTH OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE-
     WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST-WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS
     IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-
     NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

WA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK COUNTY
     LOWLANDS-EAST WILLAPA HILLS-EXTREME SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.
&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 012228
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
327 PM PDT SAT AUG  1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
AROUND 590 DM WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL STEER SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
WESTERN OREGON THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE OREGON CASCADES
INITIALLY...WITH SOME DEBRIS MOISTURE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE CASCADES
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A SLOWLY
DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THE
THERMAL TROUGH EAST OF THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY WILL BRING GRADUAL
COOLING TO THE AREA AFTER TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR MORE COOLING AND
POSSIBLY EVEN SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SET UP THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO
HAVE A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH 590
DM 500MB HEIGHTS INTO NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.
THERE IS A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST WITH NORTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE COAST. AN UPPER LOW IS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW SPREADING MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORM
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRAS TOWARD WESTERN OREGON...WITH
SOME LIGHTNING NEAR MEDFORD THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH OREGON COAST WITH DEEPER STRATUS
THERE...BUT THE MODELS INDICATED THESE WINDS WILL HAVE TROUBLE
REACHING OUR COAST VERY SOON DESPITE THE FAVORABLE WIND FLOW ALOFT.

WE ARE SEEING ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 23 DEG
C TODAY...SIMILAR TO THOSE FRIDAY. WE ARE SEEING A BIT OF THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TO OUR SOUTH SPREADING INTO LANE COUNTY. WE ARE
RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BEHIND FRIDAY AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL
SHOULD GET WELL UP INTO THE 90S AND POSSIBLE TOUCH 100 AT A FEW
SPOTS. REGARDING THE THUNDERSTORM DEBRIS MOVING NORTHWARD...THE
MODELS ALL SAY THE MAIN CHANCE OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE IN THE CASCADES AND HAVE CONTINUED THAT IDEA FOR NOW
BUT IT WILL BARE WATCHING.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SO NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN SINCE LAST
WEEKEND. QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LOCATED. THE MODELS SEEM PRETTY CERTAIN THAT THEY WILL SPREAD FARTHER
NORTH THROUGH THE OREGON CASCADES ON SUNDAY...BUT FEEL THAT THERE IS
A CHANCE TOWARD THE COAST RANGE ON SUNDAY. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE MORNING FORECAST ALONG THOSE LINES AND WILL STAY WITH THAT IDEA
IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

THE MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN NEVADA SPREADING
NORTH THROUGH WESTERN OREGON AND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...LIKELY MODULATED BY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY SPREAD THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES. THIS COULD BE A BETTER TRIGGER FOR SOME
CONVECTION IN THE VALLEYS AS WELL AND CLOSE TO THE COAST RANGE.

THE MODELS SHOW THE THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING BACK OVER THE WESTERN
VALLEY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOVING EAST OF THE CASCADES ON
SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE. AFTER POSSIBLY FLIRTING
WITH 100 AGAIN IN MANY INLAND AREAS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPS
INLAND WILL PROBABLY FALL INTO 90 TO 95 RANGE ON SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME MARINE
CLOUDS REACHING PORTLAND AND EUGENE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
INLAND TEMPS NOT MUCH ABOVE 90..IF THAT.

THUNDER AFTER MONDAY MORNING WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
CASCADES AND IN THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE MODELS INDICATE A BIT BETTER MARINE INTRUSION INLAND ON TUESDAY
MORNING AND WENT WITH MORE MORNING CLOUDS IN THE NORTH VALLEY THEN.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE NORTH VALLEY AND MID TO
UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY THUNDER ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES...BUT LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAKES THAT NOT CERTAIN EITHER. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THE GENERAL TREND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
TOWARDS COOLER WEATHER. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRUSHING BY THE REGION LATE TUESDAY...BUT KEEPS MOST OF THE
ENERGY TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR LATE TUESDAY DUE TO SOME LINGERING
INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES RETURN TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS BY
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS
SUCH...HAVE USED A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON
CASCADES. /64
&&

.AVIATION...VFR INLAND. A RIBBON OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO HUG THE
COASTLINE AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF MOVING ONSHORE AFTER BURNED OFF THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE EARLIER. STILL FEEL THERE IS A MODERATE OR BETTER
CHANCE OF IT RETURNING INLAND THIS EVENING WITH IMPACTS LIKELY
LIMITED TO KAST AND KONP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. CONVECTION DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM EARLIER ARE REMAINING HIGH LEVEL WITH RADAR INDICATING SOME
VIRGA FROM THEM. NEW CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE SISKIYOUS AND
THE SOUTH CASCADES WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER
THE CENTRAL CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BETTER CHANCE FOR
IMPACTS TO THE TAF TERMINALS WILL HAPPEN OVERNIGHT FROM ADDITIONAL
DEBRIS DRIFTING NORTH BRINGING ALTO CUMULUS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWER
POTENTIAL. DEEPER CONVECTION BECOMES POSSIBLE CLOSER TOWARD 03/00Z
FOR INLAND AREAS INCLUDING KEUG AND NORTH THROUGH KSLE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH DENSER MID-LEVEL
POCKETS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
LONGER RANGE EASTERN APPROACHES THROUGH 02/02Z. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PRESSURE PATTERN.
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHERLY COMPONENT WINDS OVER THE WATERS WITH
VARYING DEGREES OF STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENT SET OF
WINDS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON AND EVENING GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS ACROSS THE
FULL SET OF WATERS. THE INNER WATER SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF AROUND
SUNSET WHILE THE OUTER WATERS CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL
SET OF GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
EASING BELOW CRITERIA FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE SPLIT THE
ADVISORY FOR WINDS TO BETTER REFLECT EXPECTED CONDITIONS AND ALSO FOR
WHAT REALITY HAS BROUGHT THE PAST 48 HOUR.

THIS LONGER TIME FRAME OF PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS IS PRODUCING
CHOPPY SEAS AND HAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND THE 7 FT SQUARE SEA MINIMUM
CRITERIA. REALITY IS SHOWING SEAS ABOUT A FOOT BELOW WW3 GUIDANCE SO
HAVE DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AT THIS TIME
BUT STILL FEEL LIKE WE ARE WALKING A FINE LINE. OTHERWISE /JBONK
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 05Z FOR
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 5-6. MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER
THE NORTH ZONES...NORTH OF A LINE FROM AROUND BENTON COUNTY EAST TO
MT. JEFFERSON. MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FILTERING INTO THE SOUTH
ZONES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 4 VALUES...HELPING TO
REDUCE POTENTIAL COLUMN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. ONE OTHER NEAR-TERM
CONCERN IS LIGHTNING IN THE FAR SE PART OF THE AREA. AT 22Z A FEW
STRIKES NOTED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST NEAR WILLAMETTE PASS. FEEL ANY
CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ZONE 608 AND PERHAPS
THE EAST HALF OF ZONE 606. CONVECTIVE THREAT SPREADS NORTH AND WEST
SUNDAY AS SOUTH FLOW ALOFT FURTHER NORTH AND 500 MB RIDGE AXIS
GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTH AS WELL. HAVE SPREAD MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE S WA CASCADES SUN EVENING THROUGH MON MORNING. WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS FOR SUN...BUT FOR NOW FEEL LIKE
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG. ALSO...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER THE S HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY WILL TEND TO BECOME
WETTER DUE TO THE LONGER-DURATION MOIST SOUTH FLOW. CONVECTIVE
THREAT GETS PUSHED EAST OF THE CASCADES MON NIGHT AND TUE...WITH ANY
THREAT TUE NEAR THE CREST OF ZONE 608. WEISHAAR
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD
     RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST RANGE-MT. HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE
     CREST-NORTH OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE-
     WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST-WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS
     IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-
     NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

WA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK COUNTY
     LOWLANDS-EAST WILLAPA HILLS-EXTREME SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.
&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 012123
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
223 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Expect a very hot weekend with afternoon temperatures in the mid
90s to near 105. The ongoing drought combined with high heat and
low humidity will raise concerns for wildfires the next several
days. A cold front will bring temperatures back closer to average
on Tuesday. Temperatures Wednesday through Friday will likely be
at or below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday: No changes to the fcst outside of increasing
the areal coverage of smoke near the Cascades. Visibilities will
likely remain obscured to less than one mile for certainly the
immediate Lake Chelan area from the Wolverine fire. Low temps were
warmed a bit also in these smoke-filled valleys based on low temps
this morning.bz

Sunday night through Wednesday: Models are back in pretty good
agreement of the large scale synoptic pattern through the first
part of the work week. They are showing a wave move up from the
south Sunday night through Monday. With this wave will be an
increase in moisture and some very weak instability. Have added
some sprinkles and thunderstorms to the forecast. Expect the area
of sprinkles and thunderstorms to move up into the central
Cascades early Monday morning and then spread north and east
through the day and out of the area by Tuesday morning. With the
additional cloud cover Sunday night and Monday night have
increased temperatures several degrees to about 6-10 degrees above
average for this time of the year. Tuesday and Wednesday we
transition into a more west or northwesterly flow as an upper
level low pressure system moves into central British Columbia. The
track of this low is indicative of breezy winds in the Cascades,
Columbia Basin and into the Palouse and Spokane/CDA areas (about
10-20 mph). The best chance of showers or thunderstorms will
reside across the mountains. Daytime Temperatures will finally
drop to around average for Tuesday and maybe even below average
for Wednesday. /Nisbet

Wednesday night through Saturday: Expect relatively cool
temperatures and a few opportunities for showers mainly around
the mountains. Model agreement regarding the precise evolution of
the pattern degrades with a lack of solid consistency. Loose
agreement suggests an upper trough will continue to migrate across
the Pacific NW early this period. This is followed by brief
shortwave ridging before another trough approaches. Additionally
the low spinning off the CA coast moves inland and potentially by
southeast WA and southern ID late next week. In short,
shower/t-storm chances will linger around the Cascades and
northern mountains Thursday and return here and toward the Blues
through central Panhandle Saturday with approach of the next
trough from the west and possible wave approaching from the south.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal early this
period, warming back closer to an above normal by late in the
period. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected for most sites for at
least the next 24 hours. All locations should see some smoke that
doesn`t restrict vsbys. The exception will be for the KMWH/KEPH
area late tonight and into midday Sunday where MVFR vsbys from
smoke are possible. High pressure across the region means only
light diurnal winds through Sunday. Gap winds however will
increase at KEAT after 02z but remain in the 9-12kt range.bz


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        63  97  70  94  67  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  96  63  94  64  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Pullman        56  97  62  92  60  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       66 103  72  98  69  95 /   0   0  10  10  20  10
Colville       56  99  62  95  62  89 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Sandpoint      50  95  58  91  60  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Kellogg        58  95  58  94  61  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Moses Lake     59  99  69  97  64  93 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee      68  98  76  96  70  91 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Omak           60 100  70  98  64  92 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 012123
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
223 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Expect a very hot weekend with afternoon temperatures in the mid
90s to near 105. The ongoing drought combined with high heat and
low humidity will raise concerns for wildfires the next several
days. A cold front will bring temperatures back closer to average
on Tuesday. Temperatures Wednesday through Friday will likely be
at or below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday: No changes to the fcst outside of increasing
the areal coverage of smoke near the Cascades. Visibilities will
likely remain obscured to less than one mile for certainly the
immediate Lake Chelan area from the Wolverine fire. Low temps were
warmed a bit also in these smoke-filled valleys based on low temps
this morning.bz

Sunday night through Wednesday: Models are back in pretty good
agreement of the large scale synoptic pattern through the first
part of the work week. They are showing a wave move up from the
south Sunday night through Monday. With this wave will be an
increase in moisture and some very weak instability. Have added
some sprinkles and thunderstorms to the forecast. Expect the area
of sprinkles and thunderstorms to move up into the central
Cascades early Monday morning and then spread north and east
through the day and out of the area by Tuesday morning. With the
additional cloud cover Sunday night and Monday night have
increased temperatures several degrees to about 6-10 degrees above
average for this time of the year. Tuesday and Wednesday we
transition into a more west or northwesterly flow as an upper
level low pressure system moves into central British Columbia. The
track of this low is indicative of breezy winds in the Cascades,
Columbia Basin and into the Palouse and Spokane/CDA areas (about
10-20 mph). The best chance of showers or thunderstorms will
reside across the mountains. Daytime Temperatures will finally
drop to around average for Tuesday and maybe even below average
for Wednesday. /Nisbet

Wednesday night through Saturday: Expect relatively cool
temperatures and a few opportunities for showers mainly around
the mountains. Model agreement regarding the precise evolution of
the pattern degrades with a lack of solid consistency. Loose
agreement suggests an upper trough will continue to migrate across
the Pacific NW early this period. This is followed by brief
shortwave ridging before another trough approaches. Additionally
the low spinning off the CA coast moves inland and potentially by
southeast WA and southern ID late next week. In short,
shower/t-storm chances will linger around the Cascades and
northern mountains Thursday and return here and toward the Blues
through central Panhandle Saturday with approach of the next
trough from the west and possible wave approaching from the south.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal early this
period, warming back closer to an above normal by late in the
period. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected for most sites for at
least the next 24 hours. All locations should see some smoke that
doesn`t restrict vsbys. The exception will be for the KMWH/KEPH
area late tonight and into midday Sunday where MVFR vsbys from
smoke are possible. High pressure across the region means only
light diurnal winds through Sunday. Gap winds however will
increase at KEAT after 02z but remain in the 9-12kt range.bz


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        63  97  70  94  67  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  96  63  94  64  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Pullman        56  97  62  92  60  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       66 103  72  98  69  95 /   0   0  10  10  20  10
Colville       56  99  62  95  62  89 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Sandpoint      50  95  58  91  60  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Kellogg        58  95  58  94  61  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Moses Lake     59  99  69  97  64  93 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee      68  98  76  96  70  91 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Omak           60 100  70  98  64  92 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 012123
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
223 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Expect a very hot weekend with afternoon temperatures in the mid
90s to near 105. The ongoing drought combined with high heat and
low humidity will raise concerns for wildfires the next several
days. A cold front will bring temperatures back closer to average
on Tuesday. Temperatures Wednesday through Friday will likely be
at or below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday: No changes to the fcst outside of increasing
the areal coverage of smoke near the Cascades. Visibilities will
likely remain obscured to less than one mile for certainly the
immediate Lake Chelan area from the Wolverine fire. Low temps were
warmed a bit also in these smoke-filled valleys based on low temps
this morning.bz

Sunday night through Wednesday: Models are back in pretty good
agreement of the large scale synoptic pattern through the first
part of the work week. They are showing a wave move up from the
south Sunday night through Monday. With this wave will be an
increase in moisture and some very weak instability. Have added
some sprinkles and thunderstorms to the forecast. Expect the area
of sprinkles and thunderstorms to move up into the central
Cascades early Monday morning and then spread north and east
through the day and out of the area by Tuesday morning. With the
additional cloud cover Sunday night and Monday night have
increased temperatures several degrees to about 6-10 degrees above
average for this time of the year. Tuesday and Wednesday we
transition into a more west or northwesterly flow as an upper
level low pressure system moves into central British Columbia. The
track of this low is indicative of breezy winds in the Cascades,
Columbia Basin and into the Palouse and Spokane/CDA areas (about
10-20 mph). The best chance of showers or thunderstorms will
reside across the mountains. Daytime Temperatures will finally
drop to around average for Tuesday and maybe even below average
for Wednesday. /Nisbet

Wednesday night through Saturday: Expect relatively cool
temperatures and a few opportunities for showers mainly around
the mountains. Model agreement regarding the precise evolution of
the pattern degrades with a lack of solid consistency. Loose
agreement suggests an upper trough will continue to migrate across
the Pacific NW early this period. This is followed by brief
shortwave ridging before another trough approaches. Additionally
the low spinning off the CA coast moves inland and potentially by
southeast WA and southern ID late next week. In short,
shower/t-storm chances will linger around the Cascades and
northern mountains Thursday and return here and toward the Blues
through central Panhandle Saturday with approach of the next
trough from the west and possible wave approaching from the south.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal early this
period, warming back closer to an above normal by late in the
period. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected for most sites for at
least the next 24 hours. All locations should see some smoke that
doesn`t restrict vsbys. The exception will be for the KMWH/KEPH
area late tonight and into midday Sunday where MVFR vsbys from
smoke are possible. High pressure across the region means only
light diurnal winds through Sunday. Gap winds however will
increase at KEAT after 02z but remain in the 9-12kt range.bz


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        63  97  70  94  67  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  96  63  94  64  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Pullman        56  97  62  92  60  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       66 103  72  98  69  95 /   0   0  10  10  20  10
Colville       56  99  62  95  62  89 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Sandpoint      50  95  58  91  60  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Kellogg        58  95  58  94  61  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Moses Lake     59  99  69  97  64  93 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee      68  98  76  96  70  91 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Omak           60 100  70  98  64  92 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 012123
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
223 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Expect a very hot weekend with afternoon temperatures in the mid
90s to near 105. The ongoing drought combined with high heat and
low humidity will raise concerns for wildfires the next several
days. A cold front will bring temperatures back closer to average
on Tuesday. Temperatures Wednesday through Friday will likely be
at or below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday: No changes to the fcst outside of increasing
the areal coverage of smoke near the Cascades. Visibilities will
likely remain obscured to less than one mile for certainly the
immediate Lake Chelan area from the Wolverine fire. Low temps were
warmed a bit also in these smoke-filled valleys based on low temps
this morning.bz

Sunday night through Wednesday: Models are back in pretty good
agreement of the large scale synoptic pattern through the first
part of the work week. They are showing a wave move up from the
south Sunday night through Monday. With this wave will be an
increase in moisture and some very weak instability. Have added
some sprinkles and thunderstorms to the forecast. Expect the area
of sprinkles and thunderstorms to move up into the central
Cascades early Monday morning and then spread north and east
through the day and out of the area by Tuesday morning. With the
additional cloud cover Sunday night and Monday night have
increased temperatures several degrees to about 6-10 degrees above
average for this time of the year. Tuesday and Wednesday we
transition into a more west or northwesterly flow as an upper
level low pressure system moves into central British Columbia. The
track of this low is indicative of breezy winds in the Cascades,
Columbia Basin and into the Palouse and Spokane/CDA areas (about
10-20 mph). The best chance of showers or thunderstorms will
reside across the mountains. Daytime Temperatures will finally
drop to around average for Tuesday and maybe even below average
for Wednesday. /Nisbet

Wednesday night through Saturday: Expect relatively cool
temperatures and a few opportunities for showers mainly around
the mountains. Model agreement regarding the precise evolution of
the pattern degrades with a lack of solid consistency. Loose
agreement suggests an upper trough will continue to migrate across
the Pacific NW early this period. This is followed by brief
shortwave ridging before another trough approaches. Additionally
the low spinning off the CA coast moves inland and potentially by
southeast WA and southern ID late next week. In short,
shower/t-storm chances will linger around the Cascades and
northern mountains Thursday and return here and toward the Blues
through central Panhandle Saturday with approach of the next
trough from the west and possible wave approaching from the south.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal early this
period, warming back closer to an above normal by late in the
period. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected for most sites for at
least the next 24 hours. All locations should see some smoke that
doesn`t restrict vsbys. The exception will be for the KMWH/KEPH
area late tonight and into midday Sunday where MVFR vsbys from
smoke are possible. High pressure across the region means only
light diurnal winds through Sunday. Gap winds however will
increase at KEAT after 02z but remain in the 9-12kt range.bz


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        63  97  70  94  67  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  96  63  94  64  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Pullman        56  97  62  92  60  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       66 103  72  98  69  95 /   0   0  10  10  20  10
Colville       56  99  62  95  62  89 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Sandpoint      50  95  58  91  60  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Kellogg        58  95  58  94  61  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Moses Lake     59  99  69  97  64  93 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee      68  98  76  96  70  91 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Omak           60 100  70  98  64  92 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 011833
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1133 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Expect a very hot weekend with afternoon temperatures in the mid
90s to near 105. The ongoing drought combined with high heat and
low humidity will raise concerns for wildfires the next several
days. A cold front will bring temperatures back closer to average
on Monday. Temperatures for Tuesday through Friday will likely be
at or below average.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today: We increased the areal coverage of the smoke for
the western part of the Columbia Basin...and especially the Lake
Chelan area. We also included significantly reduced vsbys for
these same areas. One-half mile vsby due to smoke is likely for
the Lake Chelan region as well. Vsbys down to as low as one mile
for the Waterville Plateau and Moses Lake/Ephrata areas look
likely as well. We`ll be closely watching winds for later today
for the Cascade gaps (Wenatchee region). Some of the hi- res
model data actually supports light and variable winds through late
afternoon. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected for most sites for at
least the next 24 hours. All locations should see some smoke that
doesn`t restrict vsbys. The exception will be for the KMWH/KEPH
area late tonight and into midday Sunday where MVFR vsbys from
smoke are possible. High pressure across the region means only
light diurnal winds through Sunday. Gap winds however will
increase at KEAT after 02z but remain in the 9-12kt range.bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        99  63  97  67  90  63 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  58  96  61  90  60 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Pullman        99  56  97  59  89  56 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      105  66 103  69  95  66 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Colville      101  56  99  59  91  58 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      97  50  95  56  87  56 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Kellogg        96  58  95  58  90  58 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Moses Lake    102  59  99  65  94  62 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Wenatchee     101  68  98  72  93  67 /   0   0  10   0  10  10
Omak          102  60 100  65  95  61 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA...     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 011833
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1133 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Expect a very hot weekend with afternoon temperatures in the mid
90s to near 105. The ongoing drought combined with high heat and
low humidity will raise concerns for wildfires the next several
days. A cold front will bring temperatures back closer to average
on Monday. Temperatures for Tuesday through Friday will likely be
at or below average.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today: We increased the areal coverage of the smoke for
the western part of the Columbia Basin...and especially the Lake
Chelan area. We also included significantly reduced vsbys for
these same areas. One-half mile vsby due to smoke is likely for
the Lake Chelan region as well. Vsbys down to as low as one mile
for the Waterville Plateau and Moses Lake/Ephrata areas look
likely as well. We`ll be closely watching winds for later today
for the Cascade gaps (Wenatchee region). Some of the hi- res
model data actually supports light and variable winds through late
afternoon. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected for most sites for at
least the next 24 hours. All locations should see some smoke that
doesn`t restrict vsbys. The exception will be for the KMWH/KEPH
area late tonight and into midday Sunday where MVFR vsbys from
smoke are possible. High pressure across the region means only
light diurnal winds through Sunday. Gap winds however will
increase at KEAT after 02z but remain in the 9-12kt range.bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        99  63  97  67  90  63 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  58  96  61  90  60 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Pullman        99  56  97  59  89  56 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      105  66 103  69  95  66 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Colville      101  56  99  59  91  58 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      97  50  95  56  87  56 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Kellogg        96  58  95  58  90  58 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Moses Lake    102  59  99  65  94  62 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Wenatchee     101  68  98  72  93  67 /   0   0  10   0  10  10
Omak          102  60 100  65  95  61 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA...     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 011833
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1133 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Expect a very hot weekend with afternoon temperatures in the mid
90s to near 105. The ongoing drought combined with high heat and
low humidity will raise concerns for wildfires the next several
days. A cold front will bring temperatures back closer to average
on Monday. Temperatures for Tuesday through Friday will likely be
at or below average.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today: We increased the areal coverage of the smoke for
the western part of the Columbia Basin...and especially the Lake
Chelan area. We also included significantly reduced vsbys for
these same areas. One-half mile vsby due to smoke is likely for
the Lake Chelan region as well. Vsbys down to as low as one mile
for the Waterville Plateau and Moses Lake/Ephrata areas look
likely as well. We`ll be closely watching winds for later today
for the Cascade gaps (Wenatchee region). Some of the hi- res
model data actually supports light and variable winds through late
afternoon. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected for most sites for at
least the next 24 hours. All locations should see some smoke that
doesn`t restrict vsbys. The exception will be for the KMWH/KEPH
area late tonight and into midday Sunday where MVFR vsbys from
smoke are possible. High pressure across the region means only
light diurnal winds through Sunday. Gap winds however will
increase at KEAT after 02z but remain in the 9-12kt range.bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        99  63  97  67  90  63 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  58  96  61  90  60 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Pullman        99  56  97  59  89  56 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      105  66 103  69  95  66 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Colville      101  56  99  59  91  58 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      97  50  95  56  87  56 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Kellogg        96  58  95  58  90  58 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Moses Lake    102  59  99  65  94  62 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Wenatchee     101  68  98  72  93  67 /   0   0  10   0  10  10
Omak          102  60 100  65  95  61 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA...     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 011833
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1133 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Expect a very hot weekend with afternoon temperatures in the mid
90s to near 105. The ongoing drought combined with high heat and
low humidity will raise concerns for wildfires the next several
days. A cold front will bring temperatures back closer to average
on Monday. Temperatures for Tuesday through Friday will likely be
at or below average.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today: We increased the areal coverage of the smoke for
the western part of the Columbia Basin...and especially the Lake
Chelan area. We also included significantly reduced vsbys for
these same areas. One-half mile vsby due to smoke is likely for
the Lake Chelan region as well. Vsbys down to as low as one mile
for the Waterville Plateau and Moses Lake/Ephrata areas look
likely as well. We`ll be closely watching winds for later today
for the Cascade gaps (Wenatchee region). Some of the hi- res
model data actually supports light and variable winds through late
afternoon. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected for most sites for at
least the next 24 hours. All locations should see some smoke that
doesn`t restrict vsbys. The exception will be for the KMWH/KEPH
area late tonight and into midday Sunday where MVFR vsbys from
smoke are possible. High pressure across the region means only
light diurnal winds through Sunday. Gap winds however will
increase at KEAT after 02z but remain in the 9-12kt range.bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        99  63  97  67  90  63 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  58  96  61  90  60 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Pullman        99  56  97  59  89  56 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      105  66 103  69  95  66 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Colville      101  56  99  59  91  58 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      97  50  95  56  87  56 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Kellogg        96  58  95  58  90  58 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Moses Lake    102  59  99  65  94  62 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Wenatchee     101  68  98  72  93  67 /   0   0  10   0  10  10
Omak          102  60 100  65  95  61 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA...     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 011617
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
917 AM PDT SAT AUG  1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
AROUND 590 DM WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BE
STEERING SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
WESTERN OREGON LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE OREGON CASCADES
INITIALLY...WITH SOME DEBRIS MOISTURE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE CASCADES
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A SLOWLY
DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THE
THERMAL TROUGH EAST OF THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY WILL BRING GRADUAL
COOLING TO THE AREA AFTER TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR MORE COOLING AND
POSSIBLY EVEN SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SET UP THIS MORNING HAS A
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH 590 DM
500MB HEIGHTS INTO NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. THERE
IS A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST WITH NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW ALONG THE COAST. AN UPPER LOW IS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH
A SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW SPREADING MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORM
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRAS TOWARD WESTERN OREGON...WITH
SOME LIGHTNING NEAR MEDFORD THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH OREGON COAST WITH DEEPER STRATUS
THERE...BUT THE MODELS INDICATED THESE WILL HAVE TROUBLE REACHING OUR
COAST VERY SOON DESPITE THE FAVORABLE WIND FLOW ALOFT.

WE WILL SEE ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 23 DEG C
TODAY...SIMILAR TO THOSE FRIDAY. WE WILL SEE A BIT OF THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD TO OUR SOUTH SPREADING INTO LANE COUNTY...BUT THE MODELS ALL
SAY THE MAIN CHANCE OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
IN THE CASCADES.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SPREADS NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SO NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN SINCE LAST WEEKEND.
QUESTION BECOMES WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE. THE MODELS SEEM
PRETTY CERTAIN THAT THEY WILL SPREAD FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THE OREGON
CASCADES...BUT FEEL THAT THERE IS A CHANCE TOWARD THE COAST RANGE ON
SUNDAY. MIGHT EVEN SEE SOME SPRINKLES OVER THE VALLEY SUNDAY...BUT
NOT SURE WHETHER THE INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE VALLEY YET OR NOT.

THE MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN NEVADA SPREADING
NORTH THROUGH WESTERN OREGON AND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...LIKELY MODULATED BY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY SPREAD THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES. THIS COULD BE A BETTER TRIGGER FOR SOME
CONVECTION IN THE VALLEYS AS WELL AND CLOSE TO THE COAST RANGE.

THE MODELS SHOW THE THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING BACK OVER THE WESTERN
VALLEY AGAIN TODAY...BUT MOVING EAST OF THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY AS
ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE. AFTER FLIRTING WITH 100 AGAIN IN
MANY INLAND AREAS AGAIN TODAY...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY FALL INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ON SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME MARINE CLOUDS REACHING PORTLAND AND EUGENE.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP INLAND TEMPS NOT MUCH ABOVE 90.

THUNDER AFTER MONDAY MORNING WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
CASCADES AND IN THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...A FEW MODEL
DISCREPANCIES START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY...BUT THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE LOW BY EARLY
TUESDAY WHEREAS THE GFS JUST SKIMS THE TOP OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS THEN HAVE TIMING ISSUES ON BRINGING A
TROUGH OVER THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...WE WILL SEE A GENERAL
COOLING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK
TO NORMAL. COULD SEE A THREAT FOR CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME
SHOWERS CLIP THE SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON COAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION COMES TO FRUITION. /27
&&

.AVIATION...VFR INLAND. A MIXED BAG ALONG THE COAST WHERE STRATUS IS
HUGGING THE COASTLINE. THE STRATUS WILL LIKELY BURN OFF TO JUST
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON BUT FEEL THERE IS A MODERATE OR BETTER CHANCE
OF IT RETURNING INLAND THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS AN AREA
OF CONVECTION ALONG SW OREGON EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD BUT WILL
LIKELY MAKE IT NORTH TO WEST CENTRAL OREGON AND NORTHWARD AS DEBRIS
CLOUDS ABOVE FL100 AND NOT MUCH MORE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH MAY SEE SOME DENSER
POCKETS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE DRIFT NORTHWARD AND AFFECT THE BROADER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN APPROACH PATHS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. GUSTY N WINDS
PERSIST THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND THERMAL TROUGH
INLAND. OVERALL WAVE COMPONENT DOMINATED BY N TO NW WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL...AND THESE ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR STEEP SEAS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR
SATURDAY AND MUCH OF SUNDAY...NAMELY CHOPPY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS BETWEEN N AND NW...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY. NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORIES AS THESE LOOK TO REMAIN
ON TRACK. CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD
     RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST RANGE-MT. HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE
     CREST-NORTH OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE-
     WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST-WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS
     IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-
     NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

WA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK COUNTY
     LOWLANDS-EAST WILLAPA HILLS-EXTREME SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 011617
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
917 AM PDT SAT AUG  1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
AROUND 590 DM WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BE
STEERING SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
WESTERN OREGON LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE OREGON CASCADES
INITIALLY...WITH SOME DEBRIS MOISTURE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE CASCADES
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A SLOWLY
DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THE
THERMAL TROUGH EAST OF THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY WILL BRING GRADUAL
COOLING TO THE AREA AFTER TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR MORE COOLING AND
POSSIBLY EVEN SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SET UP THIS MORNING HAS A
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH 590 DM
500MB HEIGHTS INTO NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. THERE
IS A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST WITH NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW ALONG THE COAST. AN UPPER LOW IS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH
A SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW SPREADING MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORM
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRAS TOWARD WESTERN OREGON...WITH
SOME LIGHTNING NEAR MEDFORD THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH OREGON COAST WITH DEEPER STRATUS
THERE...BUT THE MODELS INDICATED THESE WILL HAVE TROUBLE REACHING OUR
COAST VERY SOON DESPITE THE FAVORABLE WIND FLOW ALOFT.

WE WILL SEE ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 23 DEG C
TODAY...SIMILAR TO THOSE FRIDAY. WE WILL SEE A BIT OF THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD TO OUR SOUTH SPREADING INTO LANE COUNTY...BUT THE MODELS ALL
SAY THE MAIN CHANCE OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
IN THE CASCADES.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SPREADS NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SO NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN SINCE LAST WEEKEND.
QUESTION BECOMES WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE. THE MODELS SEEM
PRETTY CERTAIN THAT THEY WILL SPREAD FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THE OREGON
CASCADES...BUT FEEL THAT THERE IS A CHANCE TOWARD THE COAST RANGE ON
SUNDAY. MIGHT EVEN SEE SOME SPRINKLES OVER THE VALLEY SUNDAY...BUT
NOT SURE WHETHER THE INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE VALLEY YET OR NOT.

THE MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN NEVADA SPREADING
NORTH THROUGH WESTERN OREGON AND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...LIKELY MODULATED BY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY SPREAD THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES. THIS COULD BE A BETTER TRIGGER FOR SOME
CONVECTION IN THE VALLEYS AS WELL AND CLOSE TO THE COAST RANGE.

THE MODELS SHOW THE THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING BACK OVER THE WESTERN
VALLEY AGAIN TODAY...BUT MOVING EAST OF THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY AS
ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE. AFTER FLIRTING WITH 100 AGAIN IN
MANY INLAND AREAS AGAIN TODAY...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY FALL INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ON SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME MARINE CLOUDS REACHING PORTLAND AND EUGENE.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP INLAND TEMPS NOT MUCH ABOVE 90.

THUNDER AFTER MONDAY MORNING WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
CASCADES AND IN THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...A FEW MODEL
DISCREPANCIES START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY...BUT THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE LOW BY EARLY
TUESDAY WHEREAS THE GFS JUST SKIMS THE TOP OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS THEN HAVE TIMING ISSUES ON BRINGING A
TROUGH OVER THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...WE WILL SEE A GENERAL
COOLING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK
TO NORMAL. COULD SEE A THREAT FOR CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME
SHOWERS CLIP THE SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON COAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION COMES TO FRUITION. /27
&&

.AVIATION...VFR INLAND. A MIXED BAG ALONG THE COAST WHERE STRATUS IS
HUGGING THE COASTLINE. THE STRATUS WILL LIKELY BURN OFF TO JUST
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON BUT FEEL THERE IS A MODERATE OR BETTER CHANCE
OF IT RETURNING INLAND THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS AN AREA
OF CONVECTION ALONG SW OREGON EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD BUT WILL
LIKELY MAKE IT NORTH TO WEST CENTRAL OREGON AND NORTHWARD AS DEBRIS
CLOUDS ABOVE FL100 AND NOT MUCH MORE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH MAY SEE SOME DENSER
POCKETS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE DRIFT NORTHWARD AND AFFECT THE BROADER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN APPROACH PATHS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. GUSTY N WINDS
PERSIST THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND THERMAL TROUGH
INLAND. OVERALL WAVE COMPONENT DOMINATED BY N TO NW WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL...AND THESE ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR STEEP SEAS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR
SATURDAY AND MUCH OF SUNDAY...NAMELY CHOPPY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS BETWEEN N AND NW...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY. NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORIES AS THESE LOOK TO REMAIN
ON TRACK. CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD
     RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST RANGE-MT. HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE
     CREST-NORTH OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE-
     WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST-WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS
     IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-
     NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

WA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK COUNTY
     LOWLANDS-EAST WILLAPA HILLS-EXTREME SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 011617
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
917 AM PDT SAT AUG  1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
AROUND 590 DM WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BE
STEERING SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
WESTERN OREGON LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE OREGON CASCADES
INITIALLY...WITH SOME DEBRIS MOISTURE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE CASCADES
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A SLOWLY
DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THE
THERMAL TROUGH EAST OF THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY WILL BRING GRADUAL
COOLING TO THE AREA AFTER TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR MORE COOLING AND
POSSIBLY EVEN SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SET UP THIS MORNING HAS A
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH 590 DM
500MB HEIGHTS INTO NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. THERE
IS A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST WITH NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW ALONG THE COAST. AN UPPER LOW IS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH
A SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW SPREADING MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORM
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRAS TOWARD WESTERN OREGON...WITH
SOME LIGHTNING NEAR MEDFORD THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH OREGON COAST WITH DEEPER STRATUS
THERE...BUT THE MODELS INDICATED THESE WILL HAVE TROUBLE REACHING OUR
COAST VERY SOON DESPITE THE FAVORABLE WIND FLOW ALOFT.

WE WILL SEE ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 23 DEG C
TODAY...SIMILAR TO THOSE FRIDAY. WE WILL SEE A BIT OF THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD TO OUR SOUTH SPREADING INTO LANE COUNTY...BUT THE MODELS ALL
SAY THE MAIN CHANCE OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
IN THE CASCADES.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SPREADS NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SO NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN SINCE LAST WEEKEND.
QUESTION BECOMES WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE. THE MODELS SEEM
PRETTY CERTAIN THAT THEY WILL SPREAD FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THE OREGON
CASCADES...BUT FEEL THAT THERE IS A CHANCE TOWARD THE COAST RANGE ON
SUNDAY. MIGHT EVEN SEE SOME SPRINKLES OVER THE VALLEY SUNDAY...BUT
NOT SURE WHETHER THE INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE VALLEY YET OR NOT.

THE MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN NEVADA SPREADING
NORTH THROUGH WESTERN OREGON AND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...LIKELY MODULATED BY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY SPREAD THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES. THIS COULD BE A BETTER TRIGGER FOR SOME
CONVECTION IN THE VALLEYS AS WELL AND CLOSE TO THE COAST RANGE.

THE MODELS SHOW THE THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING BACK OVER THE WESTERN
VALLEY AGAIN TODAY...BUT MOVING EAST OF THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY AS
ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE. AFTER FLIRTING WITH 100 AGAIN IN
MANY INLAND AREAS AGAIN TODAY...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY FALL INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ON SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME MARINE CLOUDS REACHING PORTLAND AND EUGENE.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP INLAND TEMPS NOT MUCH ABOVE 90.

THUNDER AFTER MONDAY MORNING WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
CASCADES AND IN THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...A FEW MODEL
DISCREPANCIES START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY...BUT THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE LOW BY EARLY
TUESDAY WHEREAS THE GFS JUST SKIMS THE TOP OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS THEN HAVE TIMING ISSUES ON BRINGING A
TROUGH OVER THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...WE WILL SEE A GENERAL
COOLING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK
TO NORMAL. COULD SEE A THREAT FOR CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME
SHOWERS CLIP THE SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON COAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION COMES TO FRUITION. /27
&&

.AVIATION...VFR INLAND. A MIXED BAG ALONG THE COAST WHERE STRATUS IS
HUGGING THE COASTLINE. THE STRATUS WILL LIKELY BURN OFF TO JUST
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON BUT FEEL THERE IS A MODERATE OR BETTER CHANCE
OF IT RETURNING INLAND THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS AN AREA
OF CONVECTION ALONG SW OREGON EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD BUT WILL
LIKELY MAKE IT NORTH TO WEST CENTRAL OREGON AND NORTHWARD AS DEBRIS
CLOUDS ABOVE FL100 AND NOT MUCH MORE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH MAY SEE SOME DENSER
POCKETS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE DRIFT NORTHWARD AND AFFECT THE BROADER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN APPROACH PATHS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. GUSTY N WINDS
PERSIST THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND THERMAL TROUGH
INLAND. OVERALL WAVE COMPONENT DOMINATED BY N TO NW WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL...AND THESE ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR STEEP SEAS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR
SATURDAY AND MUCH OF SUNDAY...NAMELY CHOPPY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS BETWEEN N AND NW...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY. NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORIES AS THESE LOOK TO REMAIN
ON TRACK. CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD
     RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST RANGE-MT. HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE
     CREST-NORTH OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE-
     WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST-WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS
     IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-
     NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

WA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK COUNTY
     LOWLANDS-EAST WILLAPA HILLS-EXTREME SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 011550
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR
COOLER WEATHER. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST HAVE SPREAD INLAND UP THE CHEHALIS RIVER VALLEY AND ALSO DOWN
THE STRAIT. STRATUS IS PROBABLY AT ITS GREATEST EXTENT THIS MORNING
WITH ALL AREAS LIKELY TO BE CLEAR BY NOON OR SO. OF INTEREST IS THE
LARGE AREA OF SMOKE FROM THE PARADISE FIRE IN THE QUEETS RIVER
VALLEY OVER WESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY. THIS SMOKE WILL BE VISIBLE
FROM MANY PLACES IN THE WESTERN OLYMPIC PENINSULA TODAY AND COULD
GIVE A NICE SUNSET IN SEATTLE TONIGHT.

EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE IS THE SMOKE FROM THE WOLVERINE FIRE NEAR LAKE
CHELAN THAT HAS COVERED A SIGNIFICANT PART OF EASTERN WASHINGTON
THIS MORNING. THE FIRE APPEARS TO HAVE GREATLY EXPANDED OVERNIGHT.
THANKFULLY THE WOLVERINE FIRE IS NOT IN THE CWA BUT TRAVELERS
TO EASTERN WASHINGTON...ESPECIALLY THE LAKE CHELAN AREA...SHOULD
TAKE NOTE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL
DAYS WILL NOT MOVE TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER HOT DAY FOR
THE INTERIOR. SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE FLAT AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS GOING FOR A FEW DEGREES
OF COOLING TODAY BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL GO MORE
ALONG THE LINES OF PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS TODAY WITH THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND THE COOL SPOT BEING
THE COAST WITH 70S AND LOWER 80S.

SOME SMALL CHANGES BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST. BY 00Z MONDAY THE
THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON. THIS
WILL MODERATE TO STRONG SOME LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IN WESTERN
WASHINGTON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES LOWERING FROM PLUS 20C TO PLUS 18C. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO VARIABLES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...WITH LOWER 90S FROM SEATTLE SOUTHWARD. 80S
WILL BE COMMON NORTH OF SEATTLE WITH 70S ALONG THE COAST. EVEN WITH
THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UP
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE SEATTLE AREA...SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AND
EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND THERMALLY INDUCED
SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA. A MARINE PUSH WILL DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. MODEL ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND INDICATE A WEAK PUSH INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
CONTINUE TO COOL WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO PLUS 14 OR 15C
BY 00Z TUESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA.
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SHOW THE WINDS RIGHT OFF THE GROUND UP
THROUGH 700 MB REMAINING NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS ALSO SUPPORTS THE WEAK PUSH SCENARIO. IN GENERAL WILL GO FOR 5
TO 10 DEGREES OF COOLING ON MONDAY VERSUS THE SUNDAY MAX TEMPS. THIS
WILL PUT MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR MOSTLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S WITH 60S AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. FELTON/BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IF YOU ARE NOT A FAN OF THE HOT
WEATHER WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING THE LAST FEW DAYS THEN YOU WILL
LIKE THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WHILE THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY
IN THE MODELS THE GENERAL IDEA OF COOLER WEATHER IS EVIDENT IN ALL
OF THE EXTENDED SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF IS THE MORE OPTIMISTIC OF THE
MODELS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA UNTIL A WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS LATE IN THE WEEK. THE GFS AND CANADIAN BRING AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA/WESTERN WASHINGTON THURSDAY WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL
ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE VERSUS THE GFS. THE CANADIAN
KEEPS SOME WEAK TROFINESS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WHILE THE GFS DOES
SHOW SOME WEAK RIDGE BY LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EVEN THROUGH IT
IS THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRIEST TIME OF THE YEAR WITH THE LACK OF
CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS WILL STAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST THAT HAS
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...IN THE
70S FOR THE INTERIOR AND 60S FOR THE COAST. FELTON

&&

.CLIMATE...JULY 2015 WAS THE WARMEST MONTH ON RECORD IN SEATTLE WITH
AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 71.2 DEGREES. THE OLD RECORD WAS 71.1
DEGREES SET IN AUGUST OF 1967. THIS RECORD INCLUDES THE FEDERAL
BUILDING RECORDS WHICH GO BACK TO THE 1890S.

IT WAS THE WARMEST JULY ON RECORD AT BOTH HOQUIAM AND FORKS. AT
HOQUIAM THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR JULY WAS 63.9 DEGREES BREAKING
THE RECORD OF 63.0 DEGREES SET IN 1958. AT FORKS THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 63.0 DEGREES BREAKING THE RECORD OF 61.4 SET IN
1990. RECORDS BEGAN IN HOQUIAM IN 1953 AND AT FORKS IN 1966.

OTHER LOCATIONS AROUND WESTERN WASHINGTON...AT BELLINGHAM IT WAS THE
2ND WARMEST JULY ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 67.2. THE
RECORD IS 68.0 DEGREES SET IN 1958. OLYMPIA ALSO HAD THE SECOND
WARMEST JULY ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 68.0 DEGREES.
THE RECORD IS 69.1 SET ALSO IN 1958. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE STABLE
AND DRY...EXCEPT FOR SHALLOW MARINE MOISTURE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

THERE IS MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE LOWER CHEHALIS
VALLEY THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING AND
RETURN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

KSEA...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND MOSTLY 4-10 KT.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES WILL RESULT IN STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY NORTHWESTERLIES THIS EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO COASTAL
INNER COASTAL WATERS ZONES. HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES
ARE LIKELY IN THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE
STRAIT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND GALES ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. GALE FORCE WESTERLIES ARE A GOOD BET THERE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE 12Z QUILLAYUTE SOUNDING SHOWED EXTREMELY DRY AIR
THIS MORNING ATOP A SHALLOW 500-FOOT DEEP MARINE LAYER.
INDEED...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS FROM THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING WERE SHOWING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL UNDER 20 PERCENT
AT SUNRISE. LOOKING AT ONE MORE DAY AND NIGHT OF A VERY DRY AIR
MASS...COMBINED WITH A LITTLE BIT OF MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY. MANY
LOWLAND OBSERVATION SITES WILL AGAIN SEE THEIR RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DIP DOWN NEAR OR BELOW 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE
DRYNESS OF THE AIR MASS.

THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING ABOVE
2000 FEET. ONCE THE RED FLAG WARNING DOES EXPIRE LATE THIS
EVENING...IT JUST MEANS THAT WEATHER WILL BE LESS OF AN AGGRAVATING
FACTOR IN THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT. BACKGROUND FIRE DANGER WILL STILL BE
ELEVATED DUE TO DRY FUELS. HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 8 PM SUNDAY FOR PARTS OF
 THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

     RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TIL 10 PM SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
 CASCADES AND OLYMPICS ABOVE 2000 FEET.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND TWO SOUTHERN
      INNER COASTAL WATERS ZONES...CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA...EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.

&&

$$

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KSEW 011550
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR
COOLER WEATHER. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST HAVE SPREAD INLAND UP THE CHEHALIS RIVER VALLEY AND ALSO DOWN
THE STRAIT. STRATUS IS PROBABLY AT ITS GREATEST EXTENT THIS MORNING
WITH ALL AREAS LIKELY TO BE CLEAR BY NOON OR SO. OF INTEREST IS THE
LARGE AREA OF SMOKE FROM THE PARADISE FIRE IN THE QUEETS RIVER
VALLEY OVER WESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY. THIS SMOKE WILL BE VISIBLE
FROM MANY PLACES IN THE WESTERN OLYMPIC PENINSULA TODAY AND COULD
GIVE A NICE SUNSET IN SEATTLE TONIGHT.

EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE IS THE SMOKE FROM THE WOLVERINE FIRE NEAR LAKE
CHELAN THAT HAS COVERED A SIGNIFICANT PART OF EASTERN WASHINGTON
THIS MORNING. THE FIRE APPEARS TO HAVE GREATLY EXPANDED OVERNIGHT.
THANKFULLY THE WOLVERINE FIRE IS NOT IN THE CWA BUT TRAVELERS
TO EASTERN WASHINGTON...ESPECIALLY THE LAKE CHELAN AREA...SHOULD
TAKE NOTE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL
DAYS WILL NOT MOVE TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER HOT DAY FOR
THE INTERIOR. SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE FLAT AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS GOING FOR A FEW DEGREES
OF COOLING TODAY BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL GO MORE
ALONG THE LINES OF PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS TODAY WITH THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND THE COOL SPOT BEING
THE COAST WITH 70S AND LOWER 80S.

SOME SMALL CHANGES BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST. BY 00Z MONDAY THE
THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON. THIS
WILL MODERATE TO STRONG SOME LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IN WESTERN
WASHINGTON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES LOWERING FROM PLUS 20C TO PLUS 18C. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO VARIABLES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...WITH LOWER 90S FROM SEATTLE SOUTHWARD. 80S
WILL BE COMMON NORTH OF SEATTLE WITH 70S ALONG THE COAST. EVEN WITH
THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UP
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE SEATTLE AREA...SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AND
EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND THERMALLY INDUCED
SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA. A MARINE PUSH WILL DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. MODEL ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND INDICATE A WEAK PUSH INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
CONTINUE TO COOL WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO PLUS 14 OR 15C
BY 00Z TUESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA.
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SHOW THE WINDS RIGHT OFF THE GROUND UP
THROUGH 700 MB REMAINING NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS ALSO SUPPORTS THE WEAK PUSH SCENARIO. IN GENERAL WILL GO FOR 5
TO 10 DEGREES OF COOLING ON MONDAY VERSUS THE SUNDAY MAX TEMPS. THIS
WILL PUT MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR MOSTLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S WITH 60S AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. FELTON/BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IF YOU ARE NOT A FAN OF THE HOT
WEATHER WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING THE LAST FEW DAYS THEN YOU WILL
LIKE THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WHILE THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY
IN THE MODELS THE GENERAL IDEA OF COOLER WEATHER IS EVIDENT IN ALL
OF THE EXTENDED SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF IS THE MORE OPTIMISTIC OF THE
MODELS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA UNTIL A WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS LATE IN THE WEEK. THE GFS AND CANADIAN BRING AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA/WESTERN WASHINGTON THURSDAY WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL
ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE VERSUS THE GFS. THE CANADIAN
KEEPS SOME WEAK TROFINESS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WHILE THE GFS DOES
SHOW SOME WEAK RIDGE BY LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EVEN THROUGH IT
IS THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRIEST TIME OF THE YEAR WITH THE LACK OF
CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS WILL STAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST THAT HAS
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...IN THE
70S FOR THE INTERIOR AND 60S FOR THE COAST. FELTON

&&

.CLIMATE...JULY 2015 WAS THE WARMEST MONTH ON RECORD IN SEATTLE WITH
AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 71.2 DEGREES. THE OLD RECORD WAS 71.1
DEGREES SET IN AUGUST OF 1967. THIS RECORD INCLUDES THE FEDERAL
BUILDING RECORDS WHICH GO BACK TO THE 1890S.

IT WAS THE WARMEST JULY ON RECORD AT BOTH HOQUIAM AND FORKS. AT
HOQUIAM THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR JULY WAS 63.9 DEGREES BREAKING
THE RECORD OF 63.0 DEGREES SET IN 1958. AT FORKS THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 63.0 DEGREES BREAKING THE RECORD OF 61.4 SET IN
1990. RECORDS BEGAN IN HOQUIAM IN 1953 AND AT FORKS IN 1966.

OTHER LOCATIONS AROUND WESTERN WASHINGTON...AT BELLINGHAM IT WAS THE
2ND WARMEST JULY ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 67.2. THE
RECORD IS 68.0 DEGREES SET IN 1958. OLYMPIA ALSO HAD THE SECOND
WARMEST JULY ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 68.0 DEGREES.
THE RECORD IS 69.1 SET ALSO IN 1958. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE STABLE
AND DRY...EXCEPT FOR SHALLOW MARINE MOISTURE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

THERE IS MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE LOWER CHEHALIS
VALLEY THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING AND
RETURN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

KSEA...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND MOSTLY 4-10 KT.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES WILL RESULT IN STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY NORTHWESTERLIES THIS EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO COASTAL
INNER COASTAL WATERS ZONES. HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES
ARE LIKELY IN THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE
STRAIT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND GALES ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. GALE FORCE WESTERLIES ARE A GOOD BET THERE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE 12Z QUILLAYUTE SOUNDING SHOWED EXTREMELY DRY AIR
THIS MORNING ATOP A SHALLOW 500-FOOT DEEP MARINE LAYER.
INDEED...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS FROM THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING WERE SHOWING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL UNDER 20 PERCENT
AT SUNRISE. LOOKING AT ONE MORE DAY AND NIGHT OF A VERY DRY AIR
MASS...COMBINED WITH A LITTLE BIT OF MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY. MANY
LOWLAND OBSERVATION SITES WILL AGAIN SEE THEIR RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DIP DOWN NEAR OR BELOW 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE
DRYNESS OF THE AIR MASS.

THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING ABOVE
2000 FEET. ONCE THE RED FLAG WARNING DOES EXPIRE LATE THIS
EVENING...IT JUST MEANS THAT WEATHER WILL BE LESS OF AN AGGRAVATING
FACTOR IN THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT. BACKGROUND FIRE DANGER WILL STILL BE
ELEVATED DUE TO DRY FUELS. HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 8 PM SUNDAY FOR PARTS OF
 THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

     RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TIL 10 PM SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
 CASCADES AND OLYMPICS ABOVE 2000 FEET.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND TWO SOUTHERN
      INNER COASTAL WATERS ZONES...CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA...EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.

&&

$$

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KOTX 011453
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
753 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Expect a very hot weekend with afternoon temperatures in the mid
90s to near 105. The ongoing drought combined with high heat and
low humidity will raise concerns for wildfires the next several
days. A cold front will bring temperatures back closer to average
on Monday. Temperatures for Tuesday through Friday will likely be
at or below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today: We increased the areal coverage of the smoke for
the western part of the Columbia Basin...and especially the Lake
Chelan area. We also included significantly reduced vsbys for
these same areas. One-half mile vsby due to smoke is likely for
the Lake Chelan region as well. Vsbys down to as low as one mile
for the Waterville Plateau and Moses Lake/Ephrata areas look
likely as well. We`ll be closely watching winds for later today
for the Cascade gaps (Wenatchee region). Some of the hi- res
model data actually supports light and variable winds through late
afternoon. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected over the TAF sites for
the next 24 hours. Expect some smoke aloft with the best chance
for reduced surface visibilities around sunrise when the inversion
is the strongest...especially near Lake Chelan and in the Okanogan
valley. High pressure across the region means only light diurnal
winds through the day. Some local mustiness is possible during
the afternoon. Gap winds will increase winds at KEAT after 00z.
/rfox

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        99  63  97  67  90  63 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  58  96  61  90  60 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Pullman        99  56  97  59  89  56 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      105  66 103  69  95  66 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Colville      101  56  99  59  91  58 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      97  50  95  56  87  56 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Kellogg        96  58  95  58  90  58 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Moses Lake    102  59  99  65  94  62 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Wenatchee     101  68  98  72  93  67 /   0   0  10   0  10  10
Omak          102  60 100  65  95  61 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA...     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 011453
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
753 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Expect a very hot weekend with afternoon temperatures in the mid
90s to near 105. The ongoing drought combined with high heat and
low humidity will raise concerns for wildfires the next several
days. A cold front will bring temperatures back closer to average
on Monday. Temperatures for Tuesday through Friday will likely be
at or below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today: We increased the areal coverage of the smoke for
the western part of the Columbia Basin...and especially the Lake
Chelan area. We also included significantly reduced vsbys for
these same areas. One-half mile vsby due to smoke is likely for
the Lake Chelan region as well. Vsbys down to as low as one mile
for the Waterville Plateau and Moses Lake/Ephrata areas look
likely as well. We`ll be closely watching winds for later today
for the Cascade gaps (Wenatchee region). Some of the hi- res
model data actually supports light and variable winds through late
afternoon. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected over the TAF sites for
the next 24 hours. Expect some smoke aloft with the best chance
for reduced surface visibilities around sunrise when the inversion
is the strongest...especially near Lake Chelan and in the Okanogan
valley. High pressure across the region means only light diurnal
winds through the day. Some local mustiness is possible during
the afternoon. Gap winds will increase winds at KEAT after 00z.
/rfox

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        99  63  97  67  90  63 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  58  96  61  90  60 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Pullman        99  56  97  59  89  56 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      105  66 103  69  95  66 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Colville      101  56  99  59  91  58 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      97  50  95  56  87  56 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Kellogg        96  58  95  58  90  58 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Moses Lake    102  59  99  65  94  62 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Wenatchee     101  68  98  72  93  67 /   0   0  10   0  10  10
Omak          102  60 100  65  95  61 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA...     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 011348 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
350 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR
COOLER WEATHER. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AT 3 AM. WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA TEMPERATURES WERE IN A WIDE RANGE
AT 3 AM...LOWER 50S TO LOWER 70S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE AREA TODAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER
HOT DAY FOR THE INTERIOR. SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE FLAT AND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY`S READINGS. TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IS GOING FOR A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING TODAY BUT WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL GO MORE ALONG THE LINES OF PERSISTENCE
FOR HIGHS TODAY WITH THE WARMEST LOCATIONS ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S AND THE COOL SPOT BEING THE COAST WITH 70S AND LOWER 80S.

SOME SMALL CHANGES BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST. BY 00Z MONDAY THE
THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON. THIS
WILL INDUCE SOME LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IN WESTERN WASHINGTON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL SLIGHTLY...850 MB TEMPERATURES
LOWERING FROM NEAR PLUS 20C TO NEAR PLUS 18C. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO VARIABLES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...BUT STILL PLENTY WARM WITH LOWER 90S FROM SEATTLE
SOUTHWARD. 80S WILL BE COMMON NORTH OF SEATTLE WITH 70S ALONG THE
COAST. EVEN WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THE HEAT ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN UP THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE SEATTLE
AREA...SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AND EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH
EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT A MARINE PUSH WILL DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON. MODEL ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE
AND INDICATING MORE OF A WEAK PUSH INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
CONTINUE TO COOL...850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN AROUND PLUS 14 OR 15C BY
00Z TUESDAY...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA.
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SHOW THE WINDS RIGHT OFF THE GROUND UP
THROUGH 700 MB REMAINING NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS ALSO SUPPORTS THE WEAK PUSH SCENARIO. IN GENERAL WILL GO FOR 5
TO 10 DEGREES OF COOLING ON MONDAY VERSUS SUNDAYS MAX TEMPERATURE
READINGS. THIS WILL PUT MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR MOSTLY IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. WITH 60S AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM...IF YOU ARE NOT A FAN OF THE HOT WEATHER WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING THE LAST FEW DAYS THEN YOU WILL LIKE THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. WHILE THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS THE
GENERAL IDEA OF COOLER WEATHER IS EVIDENT IN ALL OF THE EXTENDED
SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF IS THE MORE OPTIMISTIC OF THE MODELS WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA UNTIL A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS
LATE IN THE WEEK. THE GFS AND CANADIAN BRING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA/WESTERN WASHINGTON THURSDAY WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL ABOUT
12 HOURS SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE VERSUS THE GFS. THE CANADIAN KEEPS
SOME WEAK TROFINESS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WHILE THE GFS DOES SHOW
SOME WEAK RIDGE BY LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EVEN THROUGH IT IS
THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRIEST TIME OF THE YEAR WITH THE LACK OF
CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS WILL STAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST THAT HAS
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...IN THE
70S FOR THE INTERIOR AND 60S FOR THE COAST. FELTON

&&

.CLIMATE...JULY ENDED UP BEING THE WARMEST MONTH ON RECORD IN
SEATTLE WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 71.2 DEGREES. THE OLD RECORD
WAS 71.1 DEGREES SET IN AUGUST OF 1967. THIS RECORD INCLUDES THE
FEDERAL BUILDING RECORDS WHICH GO BACK TO THE 1890`S.

IT WAS THE WARMEST JULY ON RECORD AT BOTH HOQUIAM AND FORKS. AT
HOQUIAM THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR JULY WAS 63.9 DEGREES BREAKING
THE RECORD OF 63.0 DEGREES SET IN 1958. AT FORKS THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 63.0 DEGREES BREAKING THE RECORD OF 61.4 SET IN
1990. RECORDS BEGAN IN HOQUIAM IN 1953 AND AT FORKS IN 1966.

OTHER LOCATIONS AROUND WESTERN WASHINGTON...AT BELLINGHAM IT WAS THE
2ND WARMEST JULY ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 67.2. THE
RECORD IS 68.0 DEGREES SET IN 1958. OLYMPIA ALSO HAD THE SECOND
WARMEST JULY ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 68.0 DEGREES.
THE RECORD IS 69.1 SET ALSO IN 1958.

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT W-SW FLOW ALOFT. EXCEPT
FOR AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS...THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN DRY...STABLE AND VERY WARM. THE DENSITY ALTITUDE WILL BE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AREAS OF IFR STRATUS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE COAST...OVER THE WESTERN
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND BETWEEN KHQM AND KSHN. THE STRATUS SHOULD
BURN OFF AGAIN BY 18Z THIS. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS W WA.

KSEA...CLEAR SKIES FOR GOOD VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN N 3-7 KT THIS MORNING THEN RISE TO N-NW 5-10 KT AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY. KAM

&&

.MARINE...A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL COMBINE WITH LOWER
PRESSURE OVER E WA TO MAINTAIN VARYING DEGREES OF ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
MODERATE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THIS
WEEKEND...BUT STRONG FLOW WITH POSSIBLE GALES IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN
DE FUCA IS POSSIBLE.

EARLIER MODELS SUGGESTED GALES IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT THIS
EVENING...BUT THE 00Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE UIL-BLI PRESSURE
GRADIENT. NONE OF THE U.S. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE CLOSE TO GALE FORCE
WINDS...AND BOTH THE 18Z AND 00Z 2.5KM CANADIAN LAM MODEL ONLY
SHOWED A TINY AREA OF 30-35 KT WINDS FOR JUST ONE HOUR. AS A RESULT
I HAVE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO A HIGH END SCA FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A SCA WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS FOR BORDERLINE SCA NW WINDS A TIMES. THIS NW FLOW ON
THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE INNER COASTAL WATERS ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING. KAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A CRITICAL PERIOD FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONTINUES OVER ALL OF WESTERN WASHINGTON...WITH A VERY DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE IMMEDIATE COAST HAS SEEN SOME RELIEF THIS
AFTERNOON FROM SEA BREEZES WHICH HAVE RAISED DEWPOINTS INTO THE
UPPER 50S AT HOQUIAM AND QUILLAYUTE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON...DRY AIR PERSISTS.

IN ADDITION...ELEVATED MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE FEELING THE ADDED
EFFECT OF SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL AIR...WITH BOTH MID-LEVEL AND
HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 5 CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BURST OF SMOKE THIS AFTERNOON
COMING FROM THE PARADISE FIRE...SO IT APPEARS THE FIRE IS FEELING
THE EFFECTS OF THE DRY AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG
WARNING GOING FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE DRY AND UNSTABLE AIR MAS. LARGE FIRE GROWTH IN WESTERN
WASHINGTON HISTORICALLY TAKES PLACE UNDER SUCH CONDITIONS. HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 8 PM SUNDAY FOR PARTS OF
THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TIL 10 PM SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
CASCADES AND OLYMPICS ABOVE 2000 FEET.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND CENTRAL AND EAST
    STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KSEW 011348 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
350 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR
COOLER WEATHER. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AT 3 AM. WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA TEMPERATURES WERE IN A WIDE RANGE
AT 3 AM...LOWER 50S TO LOWER 70S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE AREA TODAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER
HOT DAY FOR THE INTERIOR. SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE FLAT AND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY`S READINGS. TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IS GOING FOR A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING TODAY BUT WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL GO MORE ALONG THE LINES OF PERSISTENCE
FOR HIGHS TODAY WITH THE WARMEST LOCATIONS ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S AND THE COOL SPOT BEING THE COAST WITH 70S AND LOWER 80S.

SOME SMALL CHANGES BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST. BY 00Z MONDAY THE
THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON. THIS
WILL INDUCE SOME LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IN WESTERN WASHINGTON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL SLIGHTLY...850 MB TEMPERATURES
LOWERING FROM NEAR PLUS 20C TO NEAR PLUS 18C. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO VARIABLES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...BUT STILL PLENTY WARM WITH LOWER 90S FROM SEATTLE
SOUTHWARD. 80S WILL BE COMMON NORTH OF SEATTLE WITH 70S ALONG THE
COAST. EVEN WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THE HEAT ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN UP THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE SEATTLE
AREA...SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AND EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH
EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT A MARINE PUSH WILL DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON. MODEL ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE
AND INDICATING MORE OF A WEAK PUSH INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
CONTINUE TO COOL...850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN AROUND PLUS 14 OR 15C BY
00Z TUESDAY...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA.
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SHOW THE WINDS RIGHT OFF THE GROUND UP
THROUGH 700 MB REMAINING NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS ALSO SUPPORTS THE WEAK PUSH SCENARIO. IN GENERAL WILL GO FOR 5
TO 10 DEGREES OF COOLING ON MONDAY VERSUS SUNDAYS MAX TEMPERATURE
READINGS. THIS WILL PUT MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR MOSTLY IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. WITH 60S AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM...IF YOU ARE NOT A FAN OF THE HOT WEATHER WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING THE LAST FEW DAYS THEN YOU WILL LIKE THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. WHILE THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS THE
GENERAL IDEA OF COOLER WEATHER IS EVIDENT IN ALL OF THE EXTENDED
SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF IS THE MORE OPTIMISTIC OF THE MODELS WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA UNTIL A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS
LATE IN THE WEEK. THE GFS AND CANADIAN BRING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA/WESTERN WASHINGTON THURSDAY WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL ABOUT
12 HOURS SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE VERSUS THE GFS. THE CANADIAN KEEPS
SOME WEAK TROFINESS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WHILE THE GFS DOES SHOW
SOME WEAK RIDGE BY LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EVEN THROUGH IT IS
THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRIEST TIME OF THE YEAR WITH THE LACK OF
CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS WILL STAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST THAT HAS
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...IN THE
70S FOR THE INTERIOR AND 60S FOR THE COAST. FELTON

&&

.CLIMATE...JULY ENDED UP BEING THE WARMEST MONTH ON RECORD IN
SEATTLE WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 71.2 DEGREES. THE OLD RECORD
WAS 71.1 DEGREES SET IN AUGUST OF 1967. THIS RECORD INCLUDES THE
FEDERAL BUILDING RECORDS WHICH GO BACK TO THE 1890`S.

IT WAS THE WARMEST JULY ON RECORD AT BOTH HOQUIAM AND FORKS. AT
HOQUIAM THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR JULY WAS 63.9 DEGREES BREAKING
THE RECORD OF 63.0 DEGREES SET IN 1958. AT FORKS THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 63.0 DEGREES BREAKING THE RECORD OF 61.4 SET IN
1990. RECORDS BEGAN IN HOQUIAM IN 1953 AND AT FORKS IN 1966.

OTHER LOCATIONS AROUND WESTERN WASHINGTON...AT BELLINGHAM IT WAS THE
2ND WARMEST JULY ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 67.2. THE
RECORD IS 68.0 DEGREES SET IN 1958. OLYMPIA ALSO HAD THE SECOND
WARMEST JULY ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 68.0 DEGREES.
THE RECORD IS 69.1 SET ALSO IN 1958.

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT W-SW FLOW ALOFT. EXCEPT
FOR AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS...THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN DRY...STABLE AND VERY WARM. THE DENSITY ALTITUDE WILL BE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AREAS OF IFR STRATUS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE COAST...OVER THE WESTERN
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND BETWEEN KHQM AND KSHN. THE STRATUS SHOULD
BURN OFF AGAIN BY 18Z THIS. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS W WA.

KSEA...CLEAR SKIES FOR GOOD VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN N 3-7 KT THIS MORNING THEN RISE TO N-NW 5-10 KT AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY. KAM

&&

.MARINE...A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL COMBINE WITH LOWER
PRESSURE OVER E WA TO MAINTAIN VARYING DEGREES OF ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
MODERATE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THIS
WEEKEND...BUT STRONG FLOW WITH POSSIBLE GALES IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN
DE FUCA IS POSSIBLE.

EARLIER MODELS SUGGESTED GALES IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT THIS
EVENING...BUT THE 00Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE UIL-BLI PRESSURE
GRADIENT. NONE OF THE U.S. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE CLOSE TO GALE FORCE
WINDS...AND BOTH THE 18Z AND 00Z 2.5KM CANADIAN LAM MODEL ONLY
SHOWED A TINY AREA OF 30-35 KT WINDS FOR JUST ONE HOUR. AS A RESULT
I HAVE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO A HIGH END SCA FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A SCA WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS FOR BORDERLINE SCA NW WINDS A TIMES. THIS NW FLOW ON
THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE INNER COASTAL WATERS ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING. KAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A CRITICAL PERIOD FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONTINUES OVER ALL OF WESTERN WASHINGTON...WITH A VERY DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE IMMEDIATE COAST HAS SEEN SOME RELIEF THIS
AFTERNOON FROM SEA BREEZES WHICH HAVE RAISED DEWPOINTS INTO THE
UPPER 50S AT HOQUIAM AND QUILLAYUTE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON...DRY AIR PERSISTS.

IN ADDITION...ELEVATED MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE FEELING THE ADDED
EFFECT OF SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL AIR...WITH BOTH MID-LEVEL AND
HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 5 CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BURST OF SMOKE THIS AFTERNOON
COMING FROM THE PARADISE FIRE...SO IT APPEARS THE FIRE IS FEELING
THE EFFECTS OF THE DRY AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG
WARNING GOING FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE DRY AND UNSTABLE AIR MAS. LARGE FIRE GROWTH IN WESTERN
WASHINGTON HISTORICALLY TAKES PLACE UNDER SUCH CONDITIONS. HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 8 PM SUNDAY FOR PARTS OF
THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TIL 10 PM SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
CASCADES AND OLYMPICS ABOVE 2000 FEET.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND CENTRAL AND EAST
    STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KOTX 011124
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
424 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Expect a very hot weekend with afternoon temperatures in the mid
90s to near 105. The ongoing drought combined with high heat and
low humidity will raise concerns for wildfires the next several
days. A cold front will bring temperatures back closer to average
on Monday. Temperatures for Tuesday through Friday will likely be
at or below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday night: Expect more of the same - the hot and
dry weather continues. A ridge of high pressure remains parked
over the Inland Northwest and will stay put through the weekend. A
surface trough stretches across the Columbia Basin will only
waiver slightly through the period.

Winds: Downslope Cascade gap winds that picked up last evening are
decreasing. The winds will remain light through the day but
appears west/northwest winds will prevail across the Cascades in
many spots, like Wenatchee valley. Terrain driven winds will be
found in more of the sheltered valleys, like the Methow valley.
Surface pressure gradients tighten to about 5 mb this afternoon
and should see a repeat of gusty gap winds of 10 to 15 mph
especially from the Wenatchee valley onto the Waterville Plateau
into the evening hours. Afternoon gusts of 15 to 20 mph are also
possible across the Columbia Basin as the dry and unstable
atmosphere mixes. Sunday winds look to be slightly weaker with
speeds less than 10 mph with occasional gustiness.

Clouds/weather: The satellite fog product has been showing hot
spots from wildfires across the region and the hottest seems to be
the Wolverine in the northern Cascades. Anticipate plenty of smoke
over Lake Chelan and surrounding valleys this morning, possibly
spreading aloft as well. Initially the atmosphere will remain
starkly dry with a dry westerly flow aloft. But by tonight and
into Sunday, upper level moisture will filter in from the
southwest and south as it circulates around the dome of high
pressure. This moisture will raise Pwats to over half an inch or
more by Sunday, but this moisture will be above 500mb and be
mainly a cirrus deck.

Temperatures/humidity: Only subtle changes are anticipated with a
degree or two of cooling. That`s still hot with readings from the
mid 90s to 105. Will continue the Heat Advisory for the LC valley
which will be hottest location. A few locations will be within a
couple degrees of record highs for again today. For Sunday, the
increase of cloud cover will help alleviate some of the heat,
although the low levels will remain very warm. A couple degrees of
cooling is anticipated for Sunday with highs in the lower 90s to
103. Humitidy values will still remain quite dry through the
weekend. /rfox.

Monday and Tuesday: The trough promising to bring us cooler
weather looks to be coming inland more fragmented than initially
progged by the models. The evening models runs are now bringing an
initial wave through Oregon and Washington on Monday. Shower
chances on Monday look to be mainly confined to Oregon since the
resident air mass in Washington is so exceedingly dry. Even the
NAM which is often generous with its CAPE, doesn`t muster any
meaningful surface based instability. For Monday, the model
soundings from the GFS and NAM advertise the best moisture at or
above 12 thousand feet with marginal lapse rates aloft for any
high based showers. NAM and GFS sounding for Monday look like high
based clouds with virga. The good news for Monday is that the
latest model runs have decreased the potential for lightning. The
bad news is our chance for any meaningful precipitation on Monday
has also decreased.

Precipitation chances for Tuesday are marginally better than
Monday, however the models have trended drier over the last
several runs. The latest GFS and ECMWF track the upper trough
north of the Canadian border on Tuesday. This solution suggests
more wind and less shower activity. The increasing onshore flow
should establish a cross Cascade surface pressure gradient which
favors gusty gap winds along the East Slopes of the Cascades. We
should see the continuation of a cooling trend on Tuesday as well
as rising humidity levels as maritime air gradually spreads across
the Cascades.

Wednesday through Friday: The GFS and ECMWF reload the trough over
British Columbia on Wednesday and Thursday, but keep the trough
largely north of the Canadian border. There may be enough mid-
level cooling to produce widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the mountains, primarily along the Canadian
border. This pattern will likely perpetuate breezy conditions
along the East Slopes of the Cascades into the Columbia Basin and
Palouse. Temperatures for the second half of the work week should
be cooler than average. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected over the TAF sites for
the next 24 hours. Expect some smoke aloft with the best chance
for reduced surface visibilities around sunrise when the inversion
is the strongest...especially near Lake Chelan and in the Okanogan
valley. High pressure across the region means only light diurnal
winds through the day. Some local gustiness is possible during the
afternoon. Gap winds will increase winds at KEAT after 00z. /rfox

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        99  63  97  67  90  63 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  58  96  61  90  60 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Pullman        99  56  97  59  89  56 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      105  66 103  69  95  66 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Colville      101  56  99  59  91  58 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      97  50  95  56  87  56 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Kellogg        96  58  95  58  90  58 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Moses Lake    102  59  99  65  94  62 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Wenatchee     101  68  98  72  93  67 /   0   0  10   0  10  10
Omak          102  60 100  65  95  61 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 011124
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
424 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Expect a very hot weekend with afternoon temperatures in the mid
90s to near 105. The ongoing drought combined with high heat and
low humidity will raise concerns for wildfires the next several
days. A cold front will bring temperatures back closer to average
on Monday. Temperatures for Tuesday through Friday will likely be
at or below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday night: Expect more of the same - the hot and
dry weather continues. A ridge of high pressure remains parked
over the Inland Northwest and will stay put through the weekend. A
surface trough stretches across the Columbia Basin will only
waiver slightly through the period.

Winds: Downslope Cascade gap winds that picked up last evening are
decreasing. The winds will remain light through the day but
appears west/northwest winds will prevail across the Cascades in
many spots, like Wenatchee valley. Terrain driven winds will be
found in more of the sheltered valleys, like the Methow valley.
Surface pressure gradients tighten to about 5 mb this afternoon
and should see a repeat of gusty gap winds of 10 to 15 mph
especially from the Wenatchee valley onto the Waterville Plateau
into the evening hours. Afternoon gusts of 15 to 20 mph are also
possible across the Columbia Basin as the dry and unstable
atmosphere mixes. Sunday winds look to be slightly weaker with
speeds less than 10 mph with occasional gustiness.

Clouds/weather: The satellite fog product has been showing hot
spots from wildfires across the region and the hottest seems to be
the Wolverine in the northern Cascades. Anticipate plenty of smoke
over Lake Chelan and surrounding valleys this morning, possibly
spreading aloft as well. Initially the atmosphere will remain
starkly dry with a dry westerly flow aloft. But by tonight and
into Sunday, upper level moisture will filter in from the
southwest and south as it circulates around the dome of high
pressure. This moisture will raise Pwats to over half an inch or
more by Sunday, but this moisture will be above 500mb and be
mainly a cirrus deck.

Temperatures/humidity: Only subtle changes are anticipated with a
degree or two of cooling. That`s still hot with readings from the
mid 90s to 105. Will continue the Heat Advisory for the LC valley
which will be hottest location. A few locations will be within a
couple degrees of record highs for again today. For Sunday, the
increase of cloud cover will help alleviate some of the heat,
although the low levels will remain very warm. A couple degrees of
cooling is anticipated for Sunday with highs in the lower 90s to
103. Humitidy values will still remain quite dry through the
weekend. /rfox.

Monday and Tuesday: The trough promising to bring us cooler
weather looks to be coming inland more fragmented than initially
progged by the models. The evening models runs are now bringing an
initial wave through Oregon and Washington on Monday. Shower
chances on Monday look to be mainly confined to Oregon since the
resident air mass in Washington is so exceedingly dry. Even the
NAM which is often generous with its CAPE, doesn`t muster any
meaningful surface based instability. For Monday, the model
soundings from the GFS and NAM advertise the best moisture at or
above 12 thousand feet with marginal lapse rates aloft for any
high based showers. NAM and GFS sounding for Monday look like high
based clouds with virga. The good news for Monday is that the
latest model runs have decreased the potential for lightning. The
bad news is our chance for any meaningful precipitation on Monday
has also decreased.

Precipitation chances for Tuesday are marginally better than
Monday, however the models have trended drier over the last
several runs. The latest GFS and ECMWF track the upper trough
north of the Canadian border on Tuesday. This solution suggests
more wind and less shower activity. The increasing onshore flow
should establish a cross Cascade surface pressure gradient which
favors gusty gap winds along the East Slopes of the Cascades. We
should see the continuation of a cooling trend on Tuesday as well
as rising humidity levels as maritime air gradually spreads across
the Cascades.

Wednesday through Friday: The GFS and ECMWF reload the trough over
British Columbia on Wednesday and Thursday, but keep the trough
largely north of the Canadian border. There may be enough mid-
level cooling to produce widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the mountains, primarily along the Canadian
border. This pattern will likely perpetuate breezy conditions
along the East Slopes of the Cascades into the Columbia Basin and
Palouse. Temperatures for the second half of the work week should
be cooler than average. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected over the TAF sites for
the next 24 hours. Expect some smoke aloft with the best chance
for reduced surface visibilities around sunrise when the inversion
is the strongest...especially near Lake Chelan and in the Okanogan
valley. High pressure across the region means only light diurnal
winds through the day. Some local gustiness is possible during the
afternoon. Gap winds will increase winds at KEAT after 00z. /rfox

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        99  63  97  67  90  63 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  58  96  61  90  60 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Pullman        99  56  97  59  89  56 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      105  66 103  69  95  66 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Colville      101  56  99  59  91  58 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      97  50  95  56  87  56 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Kellogg        96  58  95  58  90  58 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Moses Lake    102  59  99  65  94  62 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Wenatchee     101  68  98  72  93  67 /   0   0  10   0  10  10
Omak          102  60 100  65  95  61 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 011124
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
424 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Expect a very hot weekend with afternoon temperatures in the mid
90s to near 105. The ongoing drought combined with high heat and
low humidity will raise concerns for wildfires the next several
days. A cold front will bring temperatures back closer to average
on Monday. Temperatures for Tuesday through Friday will likely be
at or below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday night: Expect more of the same - the hot and
dry weather continues. A ridge of high pressure remains parked
over the Inland Northwest and will stay put through the weekend. A
surface trough stretches across the Columbia Basin will only
waiver slightly through the period.

Winds: Downslope Cascade gap winds that picked up last evening are
decreasing. The winds will remain light through the day but
appears west/northwest winds will prevail across the Cascades in
many spots, like Wenatchee valley. Terrain driven winds will be
found in more of the sheltered valleys, like the Methow valley.
Surface pressure gradients tighten to about 5 mb this afternoon
and should see a repeat of gusty gap winds of 10 to 15 mph
especially from the Wenatchee valley onto the Waterville Plateau
into the evening hours. Afternoon gusts of 15 to 20 mph are also
possible across the Columbia Basin as the dry and unstable
atmosphere mixes. Sunday winds look to be slightly weaker with
speeds less than 10 mph with occasional gustiness.

Clouds/weather: The satellite fog product has been showing hot
spots from wildfires across the region and the hottest seems to be
the Wolverine in the northern Cascades. Anticipate plenty of smoke
over Lake Chelan and surrounding valleys this morning, possibly
spreading aloft as well. Initially the atmosphere will remain
starkly dry with a dry westerly flow aloft. But by tonight and
into Sunday, upper level moisture will filter in from the
southwest and south as it circulates around the dome of high
pressure. This moisture will raise Pwats to over half an inch or
more by Sunday, but this moisture will be above 500mb and be
mainly a cirrus deck.

Temperatures/humidity: Only subtle changes are anticipated with a
degree or two of cooling. That`s still hot with readings from the
mid 90s to 105. Will continue the Heat Advisory for the LC valley
which will be hottest location. A few locations will be within a
couple degrees of record highs for again today. For Sunday, the
increase of cloud cover will help alleviate some of the heat,
although the low levels will remain very warm. A couple degrees of
cooling is anticipated for Sunday with highs in the lower 90s to
103. Humitidy values will still remain quite dry through the
weekend. /rfox.

Monday and Tuesday: The trough promising to bring us cooler
weather looks to be coming inland more fragmented than initially
progged by the models. The evening models runs are now bringing an
initial wave through Oregon and Washington on Monday. Shower
chances on Monday look to be mainly confined to Oregon since the
resident air mass in Washington is so exceedingly dry. Even the
NAM which is often generous with its CAPE, doesn`t muster any
meaningful surface based instability. For Monday, the model
soundings from the GFS and NAM advertise the best moisture at or
above 12 thousand feet with marginal lapse rates aloft for any
high based showers. NAM and GFS sounding for Monday look like high
based clouds with virga. The good news for Monday is that the
latest model runs have decreased the potential for lightning. The
bad news is our chance for any meaningful precipitation on Monday
has also decreased.

Precipitation chances for Tuesday are marginally better than
Monday, however the models have trended drier over the last
several runs. The latest GFS and ECMWF track the upper trough
north of the Canadian border on Tuesday. This solution suggests
more wind and less shower activity. The increasing onshore flow
should establish a cross Cascade surface pressure gradient which
favors gusty gap winds along the East Slopes of the Cascades. We
should see the continuation of a cooling trend on Tuesday as well
as rising humidity levels as maritime air gradually spreads across
the Cascades.

Wednesday through Friday: The GFS and ECMWF reload the trough over
British Columbia on Wednesday and Thursday, but keep the trough
largely north of the Canadian border. There may be enough mid-
level cooling to produce widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the mountains, primarily along the Canadian
border. This pattern will likely perpetuate breezy conditions
along the East Slopes of the Cascades into the Columbia Basin and
Palouse. Temperatures for the second half of the work week should
be cooler than average. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected over the TAF sites for
the next 24 hours. Expect some smoke aloft with the best chance
for reduced surface visibilities around sunrise when the inversion
is the strongest...especially near Lake Chelan and in the Okanogan
valley. High pressure across the region means only light diurnal
winds through the day. Some local gustiness is possible during the
afternoon. Gap winds will increase winds at KEAT after 00z. /rfox

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        99  63  97  67  90  63 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  58  96  61  90  60 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Pullman        99  56  97  59  89  56 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      105  66 103  69  95  66 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Colville      101  56  99  59  91  58 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      97  50  95  56  87  56 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Kellogg        96  58  95  58  90  58 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Moses Lake    102  59  99  65  94  62 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Wenatchee     101  68  98  72  93  67 /   0   0  10   0  10  10
Omak          102  60 100  65  95  61 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 011124
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
424 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Expect a very hot weekend with afternoon temperatures in the mid
90s to near 105. The ongoing drought combined with high heat and
low humidity will raise concerns for wildfires the next several
days. A cold front will bring temperatures back closer to average
on Monday. Temperatures for Tuesday through Friday will likely be
at or below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday night: Expect more of the same - the hot and
dry weather continues. A ridge of high pressure remains parked
over the Inland Northwest and will stay put through the weekend. A
surface trough stretches across the Columbia Basin will only
waiver slightly through the period.

Winds: Downslope Cascade gap winds that picked up last evening are
decreasing. The winds will remain light through the day but
appears west/northwest winds will prevail across the Cascades in
many spots, like Wenatchee valley. Terrain driven winds will be
found in more of the sheltered valleys, like the Methow valley.
Surface pressure gradients tighten to about 5 mb this afternoon
and should see a repeat of gusty gap winds of 10 to 15 mph
especially from the Wenatchee valley onto the Waterville Plateau
into the evening hours. Afternoon gusts of 15 to 20 mph are also
possible across the Columbia Basin as the dry and unstable
atmosphere mixes. Sunday winds look to be slightly weaker with
speeds less than 10 mph with occasional gustiness.

Clouds/weather: The satellite fog product has been showing hot
spots from wildfires across the region and the hottest seems to be
the Wolverine in the northern Cascades. Anticipate plenty of smoke
over Lake Chelan and surrounding valleys this morning, possibly
spreading aloft as well. Initially the atmosphere will remain
starkly dry with a dry westerly flow aloft. But by tonight and
into Sunday, upper level moisture will filter in from the
southwest and south as it circulates around the dome of high
pressure. This moisture will raise Pwats to over half an inch or
more by Sunday, but this moisture will be above 500mb and be
mainly a cirrus deck.

Temperatures/humidity: Only subtle changes are anticipated with a
degree or two of cooling. That`s still hot with readings from the
mid 90s to 105. Will continue the Heat Advisory for the LC valley
which will be hottest location. A few locations will be within a
couple degrees of record highs for again today. For Sunday, the
increase of cloud cover will help alleviate some of the heat,
although the low levels will remain very warm. A couple degrees of
cooling is anticipated for Sunday with highs in the lower 90s to
103. Humitidy values will still remain quite dry through the
weekend. /rfox.

Monday and Tuesday: The trough promising to bring us cooler
weather looks to be coming inland more fragmented than initially
progged by the models. The evening models runs are now bringing an
initial wave through Oregon and Washington on Monday. Shower
chances on Monday look to be mainly confined to Oregon since the
resident air mass in Washington is so exceedingly dry. Even the
NAM which is often generous with its CAPE, doesn`t muster any
meaningful surface based instability. For Monday, the model
soundings from the GFS and NAM advertise the best moisture at or
above 12 thousand feet with marginal lapse rates aloft for any
high based showers. NAM and GFS sounding for Monday look like high
based clouds with virga. The good news for Monday is that the
latest model runs have decreased the potential for lightning. The
bad news is our chance for any meaningful precipitation on Monday
has also decreased.

Precipitation chances for Tuesday are marginally better than
Monday, however the models have trended drier over the last
several runs. The latest GFS and ECMWF track the upper trough
north of the Canadian border on Tuesday. This solution suggests
more wind and less shower activity. The increasing onshore flow
should establish a cross Cascade surface pressure gradient which
favors gusty gap winds along the East Slopes of the Cascades. We
should see the continuation of a cooling trend on Tuesday as well
as rising humidity levels as maritime air gradually spreads across
the Cascades.

Wednesday through Friday: The GFS and ECMWF reload the trough over
British Columbia on Wednesday and Thursday, but keep the trough
largely north of the Canadian border. There may be enough mid-
level cooling to produce widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the mountains, primarily along the Canadian
border. This pattern will likely perpetuate breezy conditions
along the East Slopes of the Cascades into the Columbia Basin and
Palouse. Temperatures for the second half of the work week should
be cooler than average. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected over the TAF sites for
the next 24 hours. Expect some smoke aloft with the best chance
for reduced surface visibilities around sunrise when the inversion
is the strongest...especially near Lake Chelan and in the Okanogan
valley. High pressure across the region means only light diurnal
winds through the day. Some local gustiness is possible during the
afternoon. Gap winds will increase winds at KEAT after 00z. /rfox

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        99  63  97  67  90  63 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  58  96  61  90  60 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Pullman        99  56  97  59  89  56 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      105  66 103  69  95  66 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Colville      101  56  99  59  91  58 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      97  50  95  56  87  56 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Kellogg        96  58  95  58  90  58 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Moses Lake    102  59  99  65  94  62 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Wenatchee     101  68  98  72  93  67 /   0   0  10   0  10  10
Omak          102  60 100  65  95  61 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 011124
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
424 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Expect a very hot weekend with afternoon temperatures in the mid
90s to near 105. The ongoing drought combined with high heat and
low humidity will raise concerns for wildfires the next several
days. A cold front will bring temperatures back closer to average
on Monday. Temperatures for Tuesday through Friday will likely be
at or below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday night: Expect more of the same - the hot and
dry weather continues. A ridge of high pressure remains parked
over the Inland Northwest and will stay put through the weekend. A
surface trough stretches across the Columbia Basin will only
waiver slightly through the period.

Winds: Downslope Cascade gap winds that picked up last evening are
decreasing. The winds will remain light through the day but
appears west/northwest winds will prevail across the Cascades in
many spots, like Wenatchee valley. Terrain driven winds will be
found in more of the sheltered valleys, like the Methow valley.
Surface pressure gradients tighten to about 5 mb this afternoon
and should see a repeat of gusty gap winds of 10 to 15 mph
especially from the Wenatchee valley onto the Waterville Plateau
into the evening hours. Afternoon gusts of 15 to 20 mph are also
possible across the Columbia Basin as the dry and unstable
atmosphere mixes. Sunday winds look to be slightly weaker with
speeds less than 10 mph with occasional gustiness.

Clouds/weather: The satellite fog product has been showing hot
spots from wildfires across the region and the hottest seems to be
the Wolverine in the northern Cascades. Anticipate plenty of smoke
over Lake Chelan and surrounding valleys this morning, possibly
spreading aloft as well. Initially the atmosphere will remain
starkly dry with a dry westerly flow aloft. But by tonight and
into Sunday, upper level moisture will filter in from the
southwest and south as it circulates around the dome of high
pressure. This moisture will raise Pwats to over half an inch or
more by Sunday, but this moisture will be above 500mb and be
mainly a cirrus deck.

Temperatures/humidity: Only subtle changes are anticipated with a
degree or two of cooling. That`s still hot with readings from the
mid 90s to 105. Will continue the Heat Advisory for the LC valley
which will be hottest location. A few locations will be within a
couple degrees of record highs for again today. For Sunday, the
increase of cloud cover will help alleviate some of the heat,
although the low levels will remain very warm. A couple degrees of
cooling is anticipated for Sunday with highs in the lower 90s to
103. Humitidy values will still remain quite dry through the
weekend. /rfox.

Monday and Tuesday: The trough promising to bring us cooler
weather looks to be coming inland more fragmented than initially
progged by the models. The evening models runs are now bringing an
initial wave through Oregon and Washington on Monday. Shower
chances on Monday look to be mainly confined to Oregon since the
resident air mass in Washington is so exceedingly dry. Even the
NAM which is often generous with its CAPE, doesn`t muster any
meaningful surface based instability. For Monday, the model
soundings from the GFS and NAM advertise the best moisture at or
above 12 thousand feet with marginal lapse rates aloft for any
high based showers. NAM and GFS sounding for Monday look like high
based clouds with virga. The good news for Monday is that the
latest model runs have decreased the potential for lightning. The
bad news is our chance for any meaningful precipitation on Monday
has also decreased.

Precipitation chances for Tuesday are marginally better than
Monday, however the models have trended drier over the last
several runs. The latest GFS and ECMWF track the upper trough
north of the Canadian border on Tuesday. This solution suggests
more wind and less shower activity. The increasing onshore flow
should establish a cross Cascade surface pressure gradient which
favors gusty gap winds along the East Slopes of the Cascades. We
should see the continuation of a cooling trend on Tuesday as well
as rising humidity levels as maritime air gradually spreads across
the Cascades.

Wednesday through Friday: The GFS and ECMWF reload the trough over
British Columbia on Wednesday and Thursday, but keep the trough
largely north of the Canadian border. There may be enough mid-
level cooling to produce widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the mountains, primarily along the Canadian
border. This pattern will likely perpetuate breezy conditions
along the East Slopes of the Cascades into the Columbia Basin and
Palouse. Temperatures for the second half of the work week should
be cooler than average. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected over the TAF sites for
the next 24 hours. Expect some smoke aloft with the best chance
for reduced surface visibilities around sunrise when the inversion
is the strongest...especially near Lake Chelan and in the Okanogan
valley. High pressure across the region means only light diurnal
winds through the day. Some local gustiness is possible during the
afternoon. Gap winds will increase winds at KEAT after 00z. /rfox

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        99  63  97  67  90  63 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  58  96  61  90  60 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Pullman        99  56  97  59  89  56 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      105  66 103  69  95  66 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Colville      101  56  99  59  91  58 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      97  50  95  56  87  56 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Kellogg        96  58  95  58  90  58 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Moses Lake    102  59  99  65  94  62 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Wenatchee     101  68  98  72  93  67 /   0   0  10   0  10  10
Omak          102  60 100  65  95  61 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 011124
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
424 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Expect a very hot weekend with afternoon temperatures in the mid
90s to near 105. The ongoing drought combined with high heat and
low humidity will raise concerns for wildfires the next several
days. A cold front will bring temperatures back closer to average
on Monday. Temperatures for Tuesday through Friday will likely be
at or below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday night: Expect more of the same - the hot and
dry weather continues. A ridge of high pressure remains parked
over the Inland Northwest and will stay put through the weekend. A
surface trough stretches across the Columbia Basin will only
waiver slightly through the period.

Winds: Downslope Cascade gap winds that picked up last evening are
decreasing. The winds will remain light through the day but
appears west/northwest winds will prevail across the Cascades in
many spots, like Wenatchee valley. Terrain driven winds will be
found in more of the sheltered valleys, like the Methow valley.
Surface pressure gradients tighten to about 5 mb this afternoon
and should see a repeat of gusty gap winds of 10 to 15 mph
especially from the Wenatchee valley onto the Waterville Plateau
into the evening hours. Afternoon gusts of 15 to 20 mph are also
possible across the Columbia Basin as the dry and unstable
atmosphere mixes. Sunday winds look to be slightly weaker with
speeds less than 10 mph with occasional gustiness.

Clouds/weather: The satellite fog product has been showing hot
spots from wildfires across the region and the hottest seems to be
the Wolverine in the northern Cascades. Anticipate plenty of smoke
over Lake Chelan and surrounding valleys this morning, possibly
spreading aloft as well. Initially the atmosphere will remain
starkly dry with a dry westerly flow aloft. But by tonight and
into Sunday, upper level moisture will filter in from the
southwest and south as it circulates around the dome of high
pressure. This moisture will raise Pwats to over half an inch or
more by Sunday, but this moisture will be above 500mb and be
mainly a cirrus deck.

Temperatures/humidity: Only subtle changes are anticipated with a
degree or two of cooling. That`s still hot with readings from the
mid 90s to 105. Will continue the Heat Advisory for the LC valley
which will be hottest location. A few locations will be within a
couple degrees of record highs for again today. For Sunday, the
increase of cloud cover will help alleviate some of the heat,
although the low levels will remain very warm. A couple degrees of
cooling is anticipated for Sunday with highs in the lower 90s to
103. Humitidy values will still remain quite dry through the
weekend. /rfox.

Monday and Tuesday: The trough promising to bring us cooler
weather looks to be coming inland more fragmented than initially
progged by the models. The evening models runs are now bringing an
initial wave through Oregon and Washington on Monday. Shower
chances on Monday look to be mainly confined to Oregon since the
resident air mass in Washington is so exceedingly dry. Even the
NAM which is often generous with its CAPE, doesn`t muster any
meaningful surface based instability. For Monday, the model
soundings from the GFS and NAM advertise the best moisture at or
above 12 thousand feet with marginal lapse rates aloft for any
high based showers. NAM and GFS sounding for Monday look like high
based clouds with virga. The good news for Monday is that the
latest model runs have decreased the potential for lightning. The
bad news is our chance for any meaningful precipitation on Monday
has also decreased.

Precipitation chances for Tuesday are marginally better than
Monday, however the models have trended drier over the last
several runs. The latest GFS and ECMWF track the upper trough
north of the Canadian border on Tuesday. This solution suggests
more wind and less shower activity. The increasing onshore flow
should establish a cross Cascade surface pressure gradient which
favors gusty gap winds along the East Slopes of the Cascades. We
should see the continuation of a cooling trend on Tuesday as well
as rising humidity levels as maritime air gradually spreads across
the Cascades.

Wednesday through Friday: The GFS and ECMWF reload the trough over
British Columbia on Wednesday and Thursday, but keep the trough
largely north of the Canadian border. There may be enough mid-
level cooling to produce widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the mountains, primarily along the Canadian
border. This pattern will likely perpetuate breezy conditions
along the East Slopes of the Cascades into the Columbia Basin and
Palouse. Temperatures for the second half of the work week should
be cooler than average. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected over the TAF sites for
the next 24 hours. Expect some smoke aloft with the best chance
for reduced surface visibilities around sunrise when the inversion
is the strongest...especially near Lake Chelan and in the Okanogan
valley. High pressure across the region means only light diurnal
winds through the day. Some local gustiness is possible during the
afternoon. Gap winds will increase winds at KEAT after 00z. /rfox

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        99  63  97  67  90  63 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  58  96  61  90  60 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Pullman        99  56  97  59  89  56 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      105  66 103  69  95  66 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Colville      101  56  99  59  91  58 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      97  50  95  56  87  56 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Kellogg        96  58  95  58  90  58 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Moses Lake    102  59  99  65  94  62 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Wenatchee     101  68  98  72  93  67 /   0   0  10   0  10  10
Omak          102  60 100  65  95  61 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 011053
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
350 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR
COOLER WEATHER. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AT 3 AM. WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA TEMPERATURES WERE IN A WIDE RANGE
AT 3 AM...LOWER 50S TO LOWER 70S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE AREA TODAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER
HOT DAY FOR THE INTERIOR. SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE FLAT AND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY`S READINGS. TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IS GOING FOR A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING TODAY BUT WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL GO MORE ALONG THE LINES OF PERSISTENCE
FOR HIGHS TODAY WITH THE WARMEST LOCATIONS ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S AND THE COOL SPOT BEING THE COAST WITH 70S AND LOWER 80S.

SOME SMALL CHANGES BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST. BY 00Z MONDAY THE
THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON. THIS
WILL INDUCE SOME LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IN WESTERN WASHINGTON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL SLIGHTLY...850 MB TEMPERATURES
LOWERING FROM NEAR PLUS 20C TO NEAR PLUS 18C. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO VARIABLES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...BUT STILL PLENTY WARM WITH LOWER 90S FROM SEATTLE
SOUTHWARD. 80S WILL BE COMMON NORTH OF SEATTLE WITH 70S ALONG THE
COAST. EVEN WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THE HEAT ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN UP THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE SEATTLE
AREA...SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AND EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH
EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT A MARINE PUSH WILL DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON. MODEL ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE
AND INDICATING MORE OF A WEAK PUSH INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
CONTINUE TO COOL...850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN AROUND PLUS 14 OR 15C BY
00Z TUESDAY...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA.
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SHOW THE WINDS RIGHT OFF THE GROUND UP
THROUGH 700 MB REMAINING NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS ALSO SUPPORTS THE WEAK PUSH SCENARIO. IN GENERAL WILL GO FOR 5
TO 10 DEGREES OF COOLING ON MONDAY VERSUS SUNDAYS MAX TEMPERATURE
READINGS. THIS WILL PUT MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR MOSTLY IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. WITH 60S AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
AND THERMALLY INDUCED THERMAL SURFACE TROUGH TO THE EAST. TROUGH IS
TWO VARIABLES WILL RE

.LONG TERM...IF YOU ARE NOT A FAN OF THE HOT WEATHER WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING THE LAST FEW DAYS THEN YOU WILL LIKE THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. WHILE THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS THE
GENERAL IDEA OF COOLER WEATHER IS EVIDENT IN ALL OF THE EXTENDED
SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF IS THE MORE OPTIMISTIC OF THE MODELS WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA UNTIL A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS
LATE IN THE WEEK. THE GFS AND CANADIAN BRING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA/WESTERN WASHINGTON THURSDAY WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL ABOUT
12 HOURS SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE VERSUS THE GFS. THE CANADIAN KEEPS
SOME WEAK TROFINESS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WHILE THE GFS DOES SHOW
SOME WEAK RIDGE BY LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EVEN THROUGH IT IS
THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRIEST TIME OF THE YEAR WITH THE LACK OF
CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS WILL STAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST THAT HAS
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...IN THE
70S FOR THE INTERIOR AND 60S FOR THE COAST. FELTON

&&

.CLIMATE...JULY ENDED UP BEING THE WARMEST MONTH ON RECORD IN
SEATTLE WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 71.2 DEGREES. THE OLD RECORD
WAS 71.1 DEGREES SET IN AUGUST OF 1967. THIS RECORD INCLUDES THE
FEDERAL BUILDING RECORDS WHICH GO BACK TO THE 1890`S.

IT WAS THE WARMEST JULY ON RECORD AT BOTH HOQUIAM AND FORKS. AT
HOQUIAM THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR JULY WAS 63.9 DEGREES BREAKING
THE RECORD OF 63.0 DEGREES SET IN 1958. AT FORKS THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 63.0 DEGREES BREAKING THE RECORD OF 61.4 SET IN
1990. RECORDS BEGAN IN HOQUIAM IN 1953 AND AT FORKS IN 1966.

OTHER LOCATIONS AROUND WESTERN WASHINGTON...AT BELLINGHAM IT WAS THE
2ND WARMEST JULY ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 67.2. THE
RECORD IS 68.0 DEGREES SET IN 1958. OLYMPIA ALSO HAD THE SECOND
WARMEST JULY ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 68.0 DEGREES.
THE RECORD IS 69.1 SET ALSO IN 1958.

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT W-SW FLOW ALOFT. EXCEPT
FOR AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS...THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN DRY...STABLE AND VERY WARM. THE DENSITY ALTITUDE WILL BE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AREAS OF IFR STRATUS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE COAST...OVER THE WESTERN
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND BETWEEN KHQM AND KSHN. THE STRATUS SHOULD
BURN OFF AGAIN BY 18Z THIS. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS W WA.

KSEA...CLEAR SKIES FOR GOOD VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN N 3-7 KT THIS MORNING THEN RISE TO N-NW 5-10 KT AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY. KAM

&&

.MARINE...A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL COMBINE WITH LOWER
PRESSURE OVER E WA TO MAINTAIN VARYING DEGREES OF ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
MODERATE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THIS
WEEKEND...BUT STRONG FLOW WITH POSSIBLE GALES IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN
DE FUCA IS POSSIBLE.

EARLIER MODELS SUGGESTED GALES IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT THIS
EVENING...BUT THE 00Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE UIL-BLI PRESSURE
GRADIENT. NONE OF THE U.S. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE CLOSE TO GALE FORCE
WINDS...AND BOTH THE 18Z AND 00Z 2.5KM CANADIAN LAM MODEL ONLY
SHOWED A TINY AREA OF 30-35 KT WINDS FOR JUST ONE HOUR. AS A RESULT
I HAVE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO A HIGH END SCA FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A SCA WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS FOR BORDERLINE SCA NW WINDS A TIMES. THIS NW FLOW ON
THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE INNER COASTAL WATERS ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING. KAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A CRITICAL PERIOD FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONTINUES OVER ALL OF WESTERN WASHINGTON...WITH A VERY DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE IMMEDIATE COAST HAS SEEN SOME RELIEF THIS
AFTERNOON FROM SEA BREEZES WHICH HAVE RAISED DEWPOINTS INTO THE
UPPER 50S AT HOQUIAM AND QUILLAYUTE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON...DRY AIR PERSISTS.

IN ADDITION...ELEVATED MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE FEELING THE ADDED
EFFECT OF SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL AIR...WITH BOTH MID-LEVEL AND
HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 5 CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BURST OF SMOKE THIS AFTERNOON
COMING FROM THE PARADISE FIRE...SO IT APPEARS THE FIRE IS FEELING
THE EFFECTS OF THE DRY AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG
WARNING GOING FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE DRY AND UNSTABLE AIR MAS. LARGE FIRE GROWTH IN WESTERN
WASHINGTON HISTORICALLY TAKES PLACE UNDER SUCH CONDITIONS. HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 8 PM SUNDAY FOR PARTS OF
THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TIL 10 PM SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
CASCADES AND OLYMPICS ABOVE 2000 FEET.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND CENTRAL AND EAST
    STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KOTX 010944
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
244 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Expect a very hot weekend with afternoon temperatures in the mid
90s to near 105. The ongoing drought combined with high heat and
low humidity will raise concerns for wildfires the next several
days. A cold front will bring temperatures back closer to average
on Monday. Temperatures for Tuesday through Friday will likely be
at or below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday night: Expect more of the same - the hot and
dry weather continues. A ridge of high pressure remains parked
over the Inland Northwest and will stay put through the weekend. A
surface trough stretches across the Columbia Basin will only
waiver slightly through the period.

Winds: Downslope Cascade gap winds that picked up last evening are
decreasing. The winds will remain light through the day but
appears west/northwest winds will prevail across the Cascades in
many spots, like Wenatchee valley. Terrain driven winds will be
found in more of the sheltered valleys, like the Methow valley.
Surface pressure gradients tighten to about 5 mb this afternoon
and should see a repeat of gusty gap winds of 10 to 15 mph
especially from the Wenatchee valley onto the Waterville Plateau
into the evening hours. Afternoon gusts of 15 to 20 mph are also
possible across the Columbia Basin as the dry and unstable
atmosphere mixes. Sunday winds look to be slightly weaker with
speeds less than 10 mph with occasional gustiness.

Clouds/weather: The satellite fog product has been showing hot
spots from wildfires across the region and the hottest seems to be
the Wolverine in the northern Cascades. Anticipate plenty of smoke
over Lake Chelan and surrounding valleys this morning, possibly
spreading aloft as well. Initially the atmosphere will remain
starkly dry with a dry westerly flow aloft. But by tonight and
into Sunday, upper level moisture will filter in from the
southwest and south as it circulates around the dome of high
pressure. This moisture will raise Pwats to over half an inch or
more by Sunday, but this moisture will be above 500mb and be
mainly a cirrus deck.

Temperatures/humidity: Only subtle changes are anticipated with a
degree or two of cooling. That`s still hot with readings from the
mid 90s to 105. Will continue the Heat Advisory for the LC valley
which will be hottest location. A few locations will be within a
couple degrees of record highs for again today. For Sunday, the
increase of cloud cover will help alleviate some of the heat,
although the low levels will remain very warm. A couple degrees of
cooling is anticipated for Sunday with highs in the lower 90s to
103. Humitidy values will still remain quite dry through the
weekend. /rfox.

Monday and Tuesday: The trough promising to bring us cooler
weather looks to be coming inland more fragmented than initially
progged by the models. The evening models runs are now bringing an
initial wave through Oregon and Washington on Monday. Shower
chances on Monday look to be mainly confined to Oregon since the
resident air mass in Washington is so exceedingly dry. Even the
NAM which is often generous with its CAPE, doesn`t muster any
meaningful surface based instability. For Monday, the model
soundings from the GFS and NAM advertise the best moisture at or
above 12 thousand feet with marginal lapse rates aloft for any
high based showers. NAM and GFS sounding for Monday look like high
based clouds with virga. The good news for Monday is that the
latest model runs have decreased the potential for lightning. The
bad news is our chance for any meaningful precipitation on Monday
has also decreased.

Precipitation chances for Tuesday are marginally better than
Monday, however the models have trended drier over the last
several runs. The latest GFS and ECMWF track the upper trough
north of the Canadian border on Tuesday. This solution suggests
more wind and less shower activity. The increasing onshore flow
should establish a cross Cascade surface pressure gradient which
favors gusty gap winds along the East Slopes of the Cascades. We
should see the continuation of a cooling trend on Tuesday as well
as rising humidity levels as maritime air gradually spreads across
the Cascades.

Wednesday through Friday: The GFS and ECMWF reload the trough over
British Columbia on Wednesday and Thursday, but keep the trough
largely north of the Canadian border. There may be enough mid-
level cooling to produce widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the mountains, primarily along the Canadian
border. This pattern will likely perpetuate breezy conditions
along the East Slopes of the Cascades into the Columbia Basin and
Palouse. Temperatures for the second half of the work week should
be cooler than average. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected over the TAF sites for
at least the next 24 hours. Expect some smoke aloft with the best
chance for reduced surface visibilities around sunrise when the
inversion is the strongest. High pressure across the region means
only light diurnal winds at the TAF sites. JL


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        99  63  97  67  90  63 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  58  96  61  90  60 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Pullman        99  56  97  59  89  56 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      105  66 103  69  95  66 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Colville      101  56  99  59  91  58 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      97  50  95  56  87  56 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Kellogg        96  58  95  58  90  58 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Moses Lake    102  59  99  65  94  62 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Wenatchee     101  68  98  72  93  67 /   0   0  10   0  10  10
Omak          102  60 100  65  95  61 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 010944
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
244 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Expect a very hot weekend with afternoon temperatures in the mid
90s to near 105. The ongoing drought combined with high heat and
low humidity will raise concerns for wildfires the next several
days. A cold front will bring temperatures back closer to average
on Monday. Temperatures for Tuesday through Friday will likely be
at or below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday night: Expect more of the same - the hot and
dry weather continues. A ridge of high pressure remains parked
over the Inland Northwest and will stay put through the weekend. A
surface trough stretches across the Columbia Basin will only
waiver slightly through the period.

Winds: Downslope Cascade gap winds that picked up last evening are
decreasing. The winds will remain light through the day but
appears west/northwest winds will prevail across the Cascades in
many spots, like Wenatchee valley. Terrain driven winds will be
found in more of the sheltered valleys, like the Methow valley.
Surface pressure gradients tighten to about 5 mb this afternoon
and should see a repeat of gusty gap winds of 10 to 15 mph
especially from the Wenatchee valley onto the Waterville Plateau
into the evening hours. Afternoon gusts of 15 to 20 mph are also
possible across the Columbia Basin as the dry and unstable
atmosphere mixes. Sunday winds look to be slightly weaker with
speeds less than 10 mph with occasional gustiness.

Clouds/weather: The satellite fog product has been showing hot
spots from wildfires across the region and the hottest seems to be
the Wolverine in the northern Cascades. Anticipate plenty of smoke
over Lake Chelan and surrounding valleys this morning, possibly
spreading aloft as well. Initially the atmosphere will remain
starkly dry with a dry westerly flow aloft. But by tonight and
into Sunday, upper level moisture will filter in from the
southwest and south as it circulates around the dome of high
pressure. This moisture will raise Pwats to over half an inch or
more by Sunday, but this moisture will be above 500mb and be
mainly a cirrus deck.

Temperatures/humidity: Only subtle changes are anticipated with a
degree or two of cooling. That`s still hot with readings from the
mid 90s to 105. Will continue the Heat Advisory for the LC valley
which will be hottest location. A few locations will be within a
couple degrees of record highs for again today. For Sunday, the
increase of cloud cover will help alleviate some of the heat,
although the low levels will remain very warm. A couple degrees of
cooling is anticipated for Sunday with highs in the lower 90s to
103. Humitidy values will still remain quite dry through the
weekend. /rfox.

Monday and Tuesday: The trough promising to bring us cooler
weather looks to be coming inland more fragmented than initially
progged by the models. The evening models runs are now bringing an
initial wave through Oregon and Washington on Monday. Shower
chances on Monday look to be mainly confined to Oregon since the
resident air mass in Washington is so exceedingly dry. Even the
NAM which is often generous with its CAPE, doesn`t muster any
meaningful surface based instability. For Monday, the model
soundings from the GFS and NAM advertise the best moisture at or
above 12 thousand feet with marginal lapse rates aloft for any
high based showers. NAM and GFS sounding for Monday look like high
based clouds with virga. The good news for Monday is that the
latest model runs have decreased the potential for lightning. The
bad news is our chance for any meaningful precipitation on Monday
has also decreased.

Precipitation chances for Tuesday are marginally better than
Monday, however the models have trended drier over the last
several runs. The latest GFS and ECMWF track the upper trough
north of the Canadian border on Tuesday. This solution suggests
more wind and less shower activity. The increasing onshore flow
should establish a cross Cascade surface pressure gradient which
favors gusty gap winds along the East Slopes of the Cascades. We
should see the continuation of a cooling trend on Tuesday as well
as rising humidity levels as maritime air gradually spreads across
the Cascades.

Wednesday through Friday: The GFS and ECMWF reload the trough over
British Columbia on Wednesday and Thursday, but keep the trough
largely north of the Canadian border. There may be enough mid-
level cooling to produce widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the mountains, primarily along the Canadian
border. This pattern will likely perpetuate breezy conditions
along the East Slopes of the Cascades into the Columbia Basin and
Palouse. Temperatures for the second half of the work week should
be cooler than average. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected over the TAF sites for
at least the next 24 hours. Expect some smoke aloft with the best
chance for reduced surface visibilities around sunrise when the
inversion is the strongest. High pressure across the region means
only light diurnal winds at the TAF sites. JL


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        99  63  97  67  90  63 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  58  96  61  90  60 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Pullman        99  56  97  59  89  56 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      105  66 103  69  95  66 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Colville      101  56  99  59  91  58 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      97  50  95  56  87  56 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Kellogg        96  58  95  58  90  58 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Moses Lake    102  59  99  65  94  62 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Wenatchee     101  68  98  72  93  67 /   0   0  10   0  10  10
Omak          102  60 100  65  95  61 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 010944
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
244 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Expect a very hot weekend with afternoon temperatures in the mid
90s to near 105. The ongoing drought combined with high heat and
low humidity will raise concerns for wildfires the next several
days. A cold front will bring temperatures back closer to average
on Monday. Temperatures for Tuesday through Friday will likely be
at or below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday night: Expect more of the same - the hot and
dry weather continues. A ridge of high pressure remains parked
over the Inland Northwest and will stay put through the weekend. A
surface trough stretches across the Columbia Basin will only
waiver slightly through the period.

Winds: Downslope Cascade gap winds that picked up last evening are
decreasing. The winds will remain light through the day but
appears west/northwest winds will prevail across the Cascades in
many spots, like Wenatchee valley. Terrain driven winds will be
found in more of the sheltered valleys, like the Methow valley.
Surface pressure gradients tighten to about 5 mb this afternoon
and should see a repeat of gusty gap winds of 10 to 15 mph
especially from the Wenatchee valley onto the Waterville Plateau
into the evening hours. Afternoon gusts of 15 to 20 mph are also
possible across the Columbia Basin as the dry and unstable
atmosphere mixes. Sunday winds look to be slightly weaker with
speeds less than 10 mph with occasional gustiness.

Clouds/weather: The satellite fog product has been showing hot
spots from wildfires across the region and the hottest seems to be
the Wolverine in the northern Cascades. Anticipate plenty of smoke
over Lake Chelan and surrounding valleys this morning, possibly
spreading aloft as well. Initially the atmosphere will remain
starkly dry with a dry westerly flow aloft. But by tonight and
into Sunday, upper level moisture will filter in from the
southwest and south as it circulates around the dome of high
pressure. This moisture will raise Pwats to over half an inch or
more by Sunday, but this moisture will be above 500mb and be
mainly a cirrus deck.

Temperatures/humidity: Only subtle changes are anticipated with a
degree or two of cooling. That`s still hot with readings from the
mid 90s to 105. Will continue the Heat Advisory for the LC valley
which will be hottest location. A few locations will be within a
couple degrees of record highs for again today. For Sunday, the
increase of cloud cover will help alleviate some of the heat,
although the low levels will remain very warm. A couple degrees of
cooling is anticipated for Sunday with highs in the lower 90s to
103. Humitidy values will still remain quite dry through the
weekend. /rfox.

Monday and Tuesday: The trough promising to bring us cooler
weather looks to be coming inland more fragmented than initially
progged by the models. The evening models runs are now bringing an
initial wave through Oregon and Washington on Monday. Shower
chances on Monday look to be mainly confined to Oregon since the
resident air mass in Washington is so exceedingly dry. Even the
NAM which is often generous with its CAPE, doesn`t muster any
meaningful surface based instability. For Monday, the model
soundings from the GFS and NAM advertise the best moisture at or
above 12 thousand feet with marginal lapse rates aloft for any
high based showers. NAM and GFS sounding for Monday look like high
based clouds with virga. The good news for Monday is that the
latest model runs have decreased the potential for lightning. The
bad news is our chance for any meaningful precipitation on Monday
has also decreased.

Precipitation chances for Tuesday are marginally better than
Monday, however the models have trended drier over the last
several runs. The latest GFS and ECMWF track the upper trough
north of the Canadian border on Tuesday. This solution suggests
more wind and less shower activity. The increasing onshore flow
should establish a cross Cascade surface pressure gradient which
favors gusty gap winds along the East Slopes of the Cascades. We
should see the continuation of a cooling trend on Tuesday as well
as rising humidity levels as maritime air gradually spreads across
the Cascades.

Wednesday through Friday: The GFS and ECMWF reload the trough over
British Columbia on Wednesday and Thursday, but keep the trough
largely north of the Canadian border. There may be enough mid-
level cooling to produce widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the mountains, primarily along the Canadian
border. This pattern will likely perpetuate breezy conditions
along the East Slopes of the Cascades into the Columbia Basin and
Palouse. Temperatures for the second half of the work week should
be cooler than average. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected over the TAF sites for
at least the next 24 hours. Expect some smoke aloft with the best
chance for reduced surface visibilities around sunrise when the
inversion is the strongest. High pressure across the region means
only light diurnal winds at the TAF sites. JL


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        99  63  97  67  90  63 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  58  96  61  90  60 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Pullman        99  56  97  59  89  56 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      105  66 103  69  95  66 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Colville      101  56  99  59  91  58 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      97  50  95  56  87  56 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Kellogg        96  58  95  58  90  58 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Moses Lake    102  59  99  65  94  62 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Wenatchee     101  68  98  72  93  67 /   0   0  10   0  10  10
Omak          102  60 100  65  95  61 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 010944
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
244 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Expect a very hot weekend with afternoon temperatures in the mid
90s to near 105. The ongoing drought combined with high heat and
low humidity will raise concerns for wildfires the next several
days. A cold front will bring temperatures back closer to average
on Monday. Temperatures for Tuesday through Friday will likely be
at or below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday night: Expect more of the same - the hot and
dry weather continues. A ridge of high pressure remains parked
over the Inland Northwest and will stay put through the weekend. A
surface trough stretches across the Columbia Basin will only
waiver slightly through the period.

Winds: Downslope Cascade gap winds that picked up last evening are
decreasing. The winds will remain light through the day but
appears west/northwest winds will prevail across the Cascades in
many spots, like Wenatchee valley. Terrain driven winds will be
found in more of the sheltered valleys, like the Methow valley.
Surface pressure gradients tighten to about 5 mb this afternoon
and should see a repeat of gusty gap winds of 10 to 15 mph
especially from the Wenatchee valley onto the Waterville Plateau
into the evening hours. Afternoon gusts of 15 to 20 mph are also
possible across the Columbia Basin as the dry and unstable
atmosphere mixes. Sunday winds look to be slightly weaker with
speeds less than 10 mph with occasional gustiness.

Clouds/weather: The satellite fog product has been showing hot
spots from wildfires across the region and the hottest seems to be
the Wolverine in the northern Cascades. Anticipate plenty of smoke
over Lake Chelan and surrounding valleys this morning, possibly
spreading aloft as well. Initially the atmosphere will remain
starkly dry with a dry westerly flow aloft. But by tonight and
into Sunday, upper level moisture will filter in from the
southwest and south as it circulates around the dome of high
pressure. This moisture will raise Pwats to over half an inch or
more by Sunday, but this moisture will be above 500mb and be
mainly a cirrus deck.

Temperatures/humidity: Only subtle changes are anticipated with a
degree or two of cooling. That`s still hot with readings from the
mid 90s to 105. Will continue the Heat Advisory for the LC valley
which will be hottest location. A few locations will be within a
couple degrees of record highs for again today. For Sunday, the
increase of cloud cover will help alleviate some of the heat,
although the low levels will remain very warm. A couple degrees of
cooling is anticipated for Sunday with highs in the lower 90s to
103. Humitidy values will still remain quite dry through the
weekend. /rfox.

Monday and Tuesday: The trough promising to bring us cooler
weather looks to be coming inland more fragmented than initially
progged by the models. The evening models runs are now bringing an
initial wave through Oregon and Washington on Monday. Shower
chances on Monday look to be mainly confined to Oregon since the
resident air mass in Washington is so exceedingly dry. Even the
NAM which is often generous with its CAPE, doesn`t muster any
meaningful surface based instability. For Monday, the model
soundings from the GFS and NAM advertise the best moisture at or
above 12 thousand feet with marginal lapse rates aloft for any
high based showers. NAM and GFS sounding for Monday look like high
based clouds with virga. The good news for Monday is that the
latest model runs have decreased the potential for lightning. The
bad news is our chance for any meaningful precipitation on Monday
has also decreased.

Precipitation chances for Tuesday are marginally better than
Monday, however the models have trended drier over the last
several runs. The latest GFS and ECMWF track the upper trough
north of the Canadian border on Tuesday. This solution suggests
more wind and less shower activity. The increasing onshore flow
should establish a cross Cascade surface pressure gradient which
favors gusty gap winds along the East Slopes of the Cascades. We
should see the continuation of a cooling trend on Tuesday as well
as rising humidity levels as maritime air gradually spreads across
the Cascades.

Wednesday through Friday: The GFS and ECMWF reload the trough over
British Columbia on Wednesday and Thursday, but keep the trough
largely north of the Canadian border. There may be enough mid-
level cooling to produce widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the mountains, primarily along the Canadian
border. This pattern will likely perpetuate breezy conditions
along the East Slopes of the Cascades into the Columbia Basin and
Palouse. Temperatures for the second half of the work week should
be cooler than average. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected over the TAF sites for
at least the next 24 hours. Expect some smoke aloft with the best
chance for reduced surface visibilities around sunrise when the
inversion is the strongest. High pressure across the region means
only light diurnal winds at the TAF sites. JL


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        99  63  97  67  90  63 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  58  96  61  90  60 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Pullman        99  56  97  59  89  56 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      105  66 103  69  95  66 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Colville      101  56  99  59  91  58 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      97  50  95  56  87  56 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Kellogg        96  58  95  58  90  58 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Moses Lake    102  59  99  65  94  62 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Wenatchee     101  68  98  72  93  67 /   0   0  10   0  10  10
Omak          102  60 100  65  95  61 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 010933
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
235 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE INLAND AREAS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TO THE OREGON CASCADES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...FOG CHANNEL ON SATELITE PICTURES SHOWED A NARROW BAND
OF STRATUS ALONG THE COAST. MOST OF THE CLOUDS APPEARED TO BE JUST
OFFSHORE ALONG THE OREGON COAST...BUT INLAND A LITTLE ON THE S WA
COAST. WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IT MAY BE
DIFFICULT TO GET CLOUDS OR FOG TO PUSH MUCH INLAND...SO EXPECT
CLOUDS THIS MORNING ON THE COAST MAINLY TO JUST BE PATCHY,

WATER VAPOR PICTURE SHOWED THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINED ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN OREGON. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT THE STRONG RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT N OVER THE REGION TODAY AND FINALLY SHIFT E TONIGHT AND
SUN. WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES SEEN IN 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES
AND H8 TEMPS...HIGHS TODAY ARE LIKELY TO COOL ONLY MARGINALLY WITH A
SLIGHTLY IMPROVED ONSHORE FLOW. THIS RESULTS IN ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A CONTINUATION OF HEAT
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS N LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL OPEN UP TO THE S. MODELS AGREE IN
STREAMING SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE N IN THIS FLOW TONIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY IS SEEN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS ALOFT...BUT
IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS TO OVERCOME A MID
LEVEL WARM LAYER. FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE OREGON CASCADES FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E SUN AND MON...UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DROP OFF
AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT
GRADUAL COOLING FOR SUN AND MON. H8 TEMPS AROUND 19 DEG C SUGGEST
HIGHS DOWN AROUND 90 IN THE INLAND VALLEYS BY MON.

&&

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...A FEW MODEL
DISCREPANCIES START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY...BUT THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE LOW BY EARLY
TUESDAY WHEREAS THE GFS JUST SKIMS THE TOP OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS THEN HAVE TIMING ISSUES ON BRINGING A
TROUGH OVER THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...WE WILL SEE A GENERAL
COOLING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK
TO NORMAL. COULD SEE A THREAT FOR CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME
SHOWERS CLIP THE SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON COAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION COMES TO FRUITION. /27

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE
INLAND TERMINALS. GUSTY N WINDS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NARROW BAND OF MARINE STRATUS REMAINS PRIMARILY JUST
OFFSHORE ALONG MUCH OF THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON COASTS AND IS
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY EXPAND. THIS IS A RATHER SHALLOW LAYER...WITH
LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED CLOUD TOP ESTIMATES SITTING AROUND 1500
FT. INCREASINGLY N WINDS AFT 18Z INCREASE CHANCES FOR STRATUS TO
PUSH AWAY FROM COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAKER NORTHERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT STARTING TO INCREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AROUND 17Z
SATURDAY. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...GUSTY N WINDS PERSIST THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND THERMAL TROUGH INLAND. OVERALL WAVE COMPONENT
DOMINATED BY N TO NW WIND WAVE AND FRESH SWELL...AND THESE ARE
RESPONSIBLE FOR STEEP SEAS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR SATURDAY AND MUCH OF
SUNDAY...NAMELY CHOPPY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN N AND
NW...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. NO
CHANGES TO THE ADVISORIES THIS EVENING AS THESE LOOK TO REMAIN ON
TRACK.    CULLEN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD
     RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL OREGON
     CASCADE FOOTHILLS-EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST
     RANGE-MT. HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE CREST-NORTH
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE-
     WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST-WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS
     IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-
     NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

WA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK COUNTY
     LOWLANDS-EAST WILLAPA HILLS-EXTREME SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 010933
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
235 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE INLAND AREAS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TO THE OREGON CASCADES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...FOG CHANNEL ON SATELITE PICTURES SHOWED A NARROW BAND
OF STRATUS ALONG THE COAST. MOST OF THE CLOUDS APPEARED TO BE JUST
OFFSHORE ALONG THE OREGON COAST...BUT INLAND A LITTLE ON THE S WA
COAST. WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IT MAY BE
DIFFICULT TO GET CLOUDS OR FOG TO PUSH MUCH INLAND...SO EXPECT
CLOUDS THIS MORNING ON THE COAST MAINLY TO JUST BE PATCHY,

WATER VAPOR PICTURE SHOWED THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINED ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN OREGON. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT THE STRONG RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT N OVER THE REGION TODAY AND FINALLY SHIFT E TONIGHT AND
SUN. WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES SEEN IN 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES
AND H8 TEMPS...HIGHS TODAY ARE LIKELY TO COOL ONLY MARGINALLY WITH A
SLIGHTLY IMPROVED ONSHORE FLOW. THIS RESULTS IN ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A CONTINUATION OF HEAT
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS N LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL OPEN UP TO THE S. MODELS AGREE IN
STREAMING SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE N IN THIS FLOW TONIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY IS SEEN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS ALOFT...BUT
IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS TO OVERCOME A MID
LEVEL WARM LAYER. FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE OREGON CASCADES FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E SUN AND MON...UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DROP OFF
AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT
GRADUAL COOLING FOR SUN AND MON. H8 TEMPS AROUND 19 DEG C SUGGEST
HIGHS DOWN AROUND 90 IN THE INLAND VALLEYS BY MON.

&&

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...A FEW MODEL
DISCREPANCIES START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY...BUT THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE LOW BY EARLY
TUESDAY WHEREAS THE GFS JUST SKIMS THE TOP OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS THEN HAVE TIMING ISSUES ON BRINGING A
TROUGH OVER THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...WE WILL SEE A GENERAL
COOLING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK
TO NORMAL. COULD SEE A THREAT FOR CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME
SHOWERS CLIP THE SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON COAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION COMES TO FRUITION. /27

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE
INLAND TERMINALS. GUSTY N WINDS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NARROW BAND OF MARINE STRATUS REMAINS PRIMARILY JUST
OFFSHORE ALONG MUCH OF THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON COASTS AND IS
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY EXPAND. THIS IS A RATHER SHALLOW LAYER...WITH
LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED CLOUD TOP ESTIMATES SITTING AROUND 1500
FT. INCREASINGLY N WINDS AFT 18Z INCREASE CHANCES FOR STRATUS TO
PUSH AWAY FROM COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAKER NORTHERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT STARTING TO INCREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AROUND 17Z
SATURDAY. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...GUSTY N WINDS PERSIST THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND THERMAL TROUGH INLAND. OVERALL WAVE COMPONENT
DOMINATED BY N TO NW WIND WAVE AND FRESH SWELL...AND THESE ARE
RESPONSIBLE FOR STEEP SEAS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR SATURDAY AND MUCH OF
SUNDAY...NAMELY CHOPPY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN N AND
NW...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. NO
CHANGES TO THE ADVISORIES THIS EVENING AS THESE LOOK TO REMAIN ON
TRACK.    CULLEN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD
     RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL OREGON
     CASCADE FOOTHILLS-EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST
     RANGE-MT. HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE CREST-NORTH
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE-
     WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST-WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS
     IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-
     NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

WA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK COUNTY
     LOWLANDS-EAST WILLAPA HILLS-EXTREME SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 010933
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
235 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE INLAND AREAS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TO THE OREGON CASCADES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...FOG CHANNEL ON SATELITE PICTURES SHOWED A NARROW BAND
OF STRATUS ALONG THE COAST. MOST OF THE CLOUDS APPEARED TO BE JUST
OFFSHORE ALONG THE OREGON COAST...BUT INLAND A LITTLE ON THE S WA
COAST. WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IT MAY BE
DIFFICULT TO GET CLOUDS OR FOG TO PUSH MUCH INLAND...SO EXPECT
CLOUDS THIS MORNING ON THE COAST MAINLY TO JUST BE PATCHY,

WATER VAPOR PICTURE SHOWED THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINED ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN OREGON. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT THE STRONG RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT N OVER THE REGION TODAY AND FINALLY SHIFT E TONIGHT AND
SUN. WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES SEEN IN 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES
AND H8 TEMPS...HIGHS TODAY ARE LIKELY TO COOL ONLY MARGINALLY WITH A
SLIGHTLY IMPROVED ONSHORE FLOW. THIS RESULTS IN ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A CONTINUATION OF HEAT
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS N LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL OPEN UP TO THE S. MODELS AGREE IN
STREAMING SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE N IN THIS FLOW TONIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY IS SEEN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS ALOFT...BUT
IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS TO OVERCOME A MID
LEVEL WARM LAYER. FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE OREGON CASCADES FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E SUN AND MON...UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DROP OFF
AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT
GRADUAL COOLING FOR SUN AND MON. H8 TEMPS AROUND 19 DEG C SUGGEST
HIGHS DOWN AROUND 90 IN THE INLAND VALLEYS BY MON.

&&

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...A FEW MODEL
DISCREPANCIES START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY...BUT THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE LOW BY EARLY
TUESDAY WHEREAS THE GFS JUST SKIMS THE TOP OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS THEN HAVE TIMING ISSUES ON BRINGING A
TROUGH OVER THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...WE WILL SEE A GENERAL
COOLING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK
TO NORMAL. COULD SEE A THREAT FOR CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME
SHOWERS CLIP THE SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON COAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION COMES TO FRUITION. /27

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE
INLAND TERMINALS. GUSTY N WINDS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NARROW BAND OF MARINE STRATUS REMAINS PRIMARILY JUST
OFFSHORE ALONG MUCH OF THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON COASTS AND IS
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY EXPAND. THIS IS A RATHER SHALLOW LAYER...WITH
LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED CLOUD TOP ESTIMATES SITTING AROUND 1500
FT. INCREASINGLY N WINDS AFT 18Z INCREASE CHANCES FOR STRATUS TO
PUSH AWAY FROM COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAKER NORTHERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT STARTING TO INCREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AROUND 17Z
SATURDAY. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...GUSTY N WINDS PERSIST THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND THERMAL TROUGH INLAND. OVERALL WAVE COMPONENT
DOMINATED BY N TO NW WIND WAVE AND FRESH SWELL...AND THESE ARE
RESPONSIBLE FOR STEEP SEAS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR SATURDAY AND MUCH OF
SUNDAY...NAMELY CHOPPY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN N AND
NW...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. NO
CHANGES TO THE ADVISORIES THIS EVENING AS THESE LOOK TO REMAIN ON
TRACK.    CULLEN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD
     RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL OREGON
     CASCADE FOOTHILLS-EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST
     RANGE-MT. HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE CREST-NORTH
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE-
     WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST-WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS
     IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-
     NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

WA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK COUNTY
     LOWLANDS-EAST WILLAPA HILLS-EXTREME SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 010933
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
235 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE INLAND AREAS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TO THE OREGON CASCADES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...FOG CHANNEL ON SATELITE PICTURES SHOWED A NARROW BAND
OF STRATUS ALONG THE COAST. MOST OF THE CLOUDS APPEARED TO BE JUST
OFFSHORE ALONG THE OREGON COAST...BUT INLAND A LITTLE ON THE S WA
COAST. WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IT MAY BE
DIFFICULT TO GET CLOUDS OR FOG TO PUSH MUCH INLAND...SO EXPECT
CLOUDS THIS MORNING ON THE COAST MAINLY TO JUST BE PATCHY,

WATER VAPOR PICTURE SHOWED THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINED ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN OREGON. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT THE STRONG RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT N OVER THE REGION TODAY AND FINALLY SHIFT E TONIGHT AND
SUN. WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES SEEN IN 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES
AND H8 TEMPS...HIGHS TODAY ARE LIKELY TO COOL ONLY MARGINALLY WITH A
SLIGHTLY IMPROVED ONSHORE FLOW. THIS RESULTS IN ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A CONTINUATION OF HEAT
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS N LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL OPEN UP TO THE S. MODELS AGREE IN
STREAMING SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE N IN THIS FLOW TONIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY IS SEEN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS ALOFT...BUT
IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS TO OVERCOME A MID
LEVEL WARM LAYER. FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE OREGON CASCADES FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E SUN AND MON...UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DROP OFF
AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT
GRADUAL COOLING FOR SUN AND MON. H8 TEMPS AROUND 19 DEG C SUGGEST
HIGHS DOWN AROUND 90 IN THE INLAND VALLEYS BY MON.

&&

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...A FEW MODEL
DISCREPANCIES START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY...BUT THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE LOW BY EARLY
TUESDAY WHEREAS THE GFS JUST SKIMS THE TOP OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS THEN HAVE TIMING ISSUES ON BRINGING A
TROUGH OVER THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...WE WILL SEE A GENERAL
COOLING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK
TO NORMAL. COULD SEE A THREAT FOR CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME
SHOWERS CLIP THE SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON COAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION COMES TO FRUITION. /27

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE
INLAND TERMINALS. GUSTY N WINDS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NARROW BAND OF MARINE STRATUS REMAINS PRIMARILY JUST
OFFSHORE ALONG MUCH OF THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON COASTS AND IS
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY EXPAND. THIS IS A RATHER SHALLOW LAYER...WITH
LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED CLOUD TOP ESTIMATES SITTING AROUND 1500
FT. INCREASINGLY N WINDS AFT 18Z INCREASE CHANCES FOR STRATUS TO
PUSH AWAY FROM COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAKER NORTHERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT STARTING TO INCREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AROUND 17Z
SATURDAY. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...GUSTY N WINDS PERSIST THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND THERMAL TROUGH INLAND. OVERALL WAVE COMPONENT
DOMINATED BY N TO NW WIND WAVE AND FRESH SWELL...AND THESE ARE
RESPONSIBLE FOR STEEP SEAS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR SATURDAY AND MUCH OF
SUNDAY...NAMELY CHOPPY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN N AND
NW...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. NO
CHANGES TO THE ADVISORIES THIS EVENING AS THESE LOOK TO REMAIN ON
TRACK.    CULLEN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD
     RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL OREGON
     CASCADE FOOTHILLS-EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST
     RANGE-MT. HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE CREST-NORTH
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE-
     WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST-WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS
     IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-
     NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

WA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK COUNTY
     LOWLANDS-EAST WILLAPA HILLS-EXTREME SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 010933
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
235 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE INLAND AREAS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TO THE OREGON CASCADES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...FOG CHANNEL ON SATELITE PICTURES SHOWED A NARROW BAND
OF STRATUS ALONG THE COAST. MOST OF THE CLOUDS APPEARED TO BE JUST
OFFSHORE ALONG THE OREGON COAST...BUT INLAND A LITTLE ON THE S WA
COAST. WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IT MAY BE
DIFFICULT TO GET CLOUDS OR FOG TO PUSH MUCH INLAND...SO EXPECT
CLOUDS THIS MORNING ON THE COAST MAINLY TO JUST BE PATCHY,

WATER VAPOR PICTURE SHOWED THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINED ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN OREGON. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT THE STRONG RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT N OVER THE REGION TODAY AND FINALLY SHIFT E TONIGHT AND
SUN. WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES SEEN IN 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES
AND H8 TEMPS...HIGHS TODAY ARE LIKELY TO COOL ONLY MARGINALLY WITH A
SLIGHTLY IMPROVED ONSHORE FLOW. THIS RESULTS IN ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A CONTINUATION OF HEAT
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS N LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL OPEN UP TO THE S. MODELS AGREE IN
STREAMING SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE N IN THIS FLOW TONIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY IS SEEN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS ALOFT...BUT
IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS TO OVERCOME A MID
LEVEL WARM LAYER. FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE OREGON CASCADES FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E SUN AND MON...UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DROP OFF
AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT
GRADUAL COOLING FOR SUN AND MON. H8 TEMPS AROUND 19 DEG C SUGGEST
HIGHS DOWN AROUND 90 IN THE INLAND VALLEYS BY MON.

&&

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...A FEW MODEL
DISCREPANCIES START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY...BUT THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE LOW BY EARLY
TUESDAY WHEREAS THE GFS JUST SKIMS THE TOP OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS THEN HAVE TIMING ISSUES ON BRINGING A
TROUGH OVER THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...WE WILL SEE A GENERAL
COOLING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK
TO NORMAL. COULD SEE A THREAT FOR CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME
SHOWERS CLIP THE SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON COAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION COMES TO FRUITION. /27

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE
INLAND TERMINALS. GUSTY N WINDS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NARROW BAND OF MARINE STRATUS REMAINS PRIMARILY JUST
OFFSHORE ALONG MUCH OF THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON COASTS AND IS
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY EXPAND. THIS IS A RATHER SHALLOW LAYER...WITH
LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED CLOUD TOP ESTIMATES SITTING AROUND 1500
FT. INCREASINGLY N WINDS AFT 18Z INCREASE CHANCES FOR STRATUS TO
PUSH AWAY FROM COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAKER NORTHERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT STARTING TO INCREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AROUND 17Z
SATURDAY. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...GUSTY N WINDS PERSIST THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND THERMAL TROUGH INLAND. OVERALL WAVE COMPONENT
DOMINATED BY N TO NW WIND WAVE AND FRESH SWELL...AND THESE ARE
RESPONSIBLE FOR STEEP SEAS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR SATURDAY AND MUCH OF
SUNDAY...NAMELY CHOPPY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN N AND
NW...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. NO
CHANGES TO THE ADVISORIES THIS EVENING AS THESE LOOK TO REMAIN ON
TRACK.    CULLEN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD
     RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL OREGON
     CASCADE FOOTHILLS-EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST
     RANGE-MT. HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE CREST-NORTH
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE-
     WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST-WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS
     IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-
     NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

WA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK COUNTY
     LOWLANDS-EAST WILLAPA HILLS-EXTREME SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 010933
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
235 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE INLAND AREAS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TO THE OREGON CASCADES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...FOG CHANNEL ON SATELITE PICTURES SHOWED A NARROW BAND
OF STRATUS ALONG THE COAST. MOST OF THE CLOUDS APPEARED TO BE JUST
OFFSHORE ALONG THE OREGON COAST...BUT INLAND A LITTLE ON THE S WA
COAST. WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IT MAY BE
DIFFICULT TO GET CLOUDS OR FOG TO PUSH MUCH INLAND...SO EXPECT
CLOUDS THIS MORNING ON THE COAST MAINLY TO JUST BE PATCHY,

WATER VAPOR PICTURE SHOWED THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINED ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN OREGON. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT THE STRONG RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT N OVER THE REGION TODAY AND FINALLY SHIFT E TONIGHT AND
SUN. WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES SEEN IN 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES
AND H8 TEMPS...HIGHS TODAY ARE LIKELY TO COOL ONLY MARGINALLY WITH A
SLIGHTLY IMPROVED ONSHORE FLOW. THIS RESULTS IN ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A CONTINUATION OF HEAT
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS N LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL OPEN UP TO THE S. MODELS AGREE IN
STREAMING SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE N IN THIS FLOW TONIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY IS SEEN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS ALOFT...BUT
IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS TO OVERCOME A MID
LEVEL WARM LAYER. FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE OREGON CASCADES FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E SUN AND MON...UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DROP OFF
AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT
GRADUAL COOLING FOR SUN AND MON. H8 TEMPS AROUND 19 DEG C SUGGEST
HIGHS DOWN AROUND 90 IN THE INLAND VALLEYS BY MON.

&&

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...A FEW MODEL
DISCREPANCIES START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY...BUT THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE LOW BY EARLY
TUESDAY WHEREAS THE GFS JUST SKIMS THE TOP OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS THEN HAVE TIMING ISSUES ON BRINGING A
TROUGH OVER THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...WE WILL SEE A GENERAL
COOLING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK
TO NORMAL. COULD SEE A THREAT FOR CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME
SHOWERS CLIP THE SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON COAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION COMES TO FRUITION. /27

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE
INLAND TERMINALS. GUSTY N WINDS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NARROW BAND OF MARINE STRATUS REMAINS PRIMARILY JUST
OFFSHORE ALONG MUCH OF THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON COASTS AND IS
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY EXPAND. THIS IS A RATHER SHALLOW LAYER...WITH
LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED CLOUD TOP ESTIMATES SITTING AROUND 1500
FT. INCREASINGLY N WINDS AFT 18Z INCREASE CHANCES FOR STRATUS TO
PUSH AWAY FROM COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAKER NORTHERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT STARTING TO INCREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AROUND 17Z
SATURDAY. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...GUSTY N WINDS PERSIST THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND THERMAL TROUGH INLAND. OVERALL WAVE COMPONENT
DOMINATED BY N TO NW WIND WAVE AND FRESH SWELL...AND THESE ARE
RESPONSIBLE FOR STEEP SEAS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR SATURDAY AND MUCH OF
SUNDAY...NAMELY CHOPPY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN N AND
NW...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. NO
CHANGES TO THE ADVISORIES THIS EVENING AS THESE LOOK TO REMAIN ON
TRACK.    CULLEN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD
     RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL OREGON
     CASCADE FOOTHILLS-EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST
     RANGE-MT. HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE CREST-NORTH
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE-
     WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST-WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS
     IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-
     NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

WA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK COUNTY
     LOWLANDS-EAST WILLAPA HILLS-EXTREME SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 010537
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1037 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Dry and hot weather will persist for the next several days. High
temperatures in the 90s to near 105 will be common through the
weekend. A cooling trend will start off the work week. A more
dramatic change to the hot pattern will be the chance of
thunderstorms each day from Monday through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Saturday: Outside of a few high clouds...and
valley smoke especially along Lake Chelan...the fcst will remain
very warm with overnight low temps and high temps tomorrow well
above average. We`ve extended the heat advsy through Sunday, with
triple digit, or near triple digit, highs expected again tomorrow.
The winds will remain light overall, though we may begin to see
increasing westerly winds in and near Cascade valleys tomorrow
evening.

Saturday Night and Sunday: The strong ridge remains with
continued very hot conditions. Main change to this portion of the
forecast was to extend the heat advisory across the
Lewiston/Clarkston area through Sunday evening. 850 mb temps on
all models show at or slightly warmer temperatures for Sunday
compared to Saturday. So, valley temps in the mid 90s with up to
105 or even slightly higher for those typical hot places across
the Basin/LC Valley/Entiat etc areas. Sunday we should see an
increase in some clouds from the south, but they will be fairly
high thin cirrus and shouldn`t have an impact on temperatures.

Sunday night through Wednesday: Models are in surprisingly good
agreement on Sunday night/Monday of some energy moving up from
the south into the Pacific Northwest. This would bring an increase
and thickening of clouds to the area. Sunday night could be quite
warm given this cloud cover. It is the warmest night currently in
the forecast with temps about 10 degrees above average for this
time of the year. Kept thunderstorms in during the overnight
period for our southeast forecast area. Then stretched that area
north and west into the Columbia Basin and Okanogan Highlands by
Monday morning and through the afternoon. By Monday evening the
best chance of thunderstorms should be confined to extreme eastern
WA and north ID. Sadly, after that wave moves through, the models
totally disagree for the midweek weather. The GFS now brings that
low off the central BC coast inland by Monday and puts us in a
more west or northwesterly flow for Tues/Wed. The ECMWF on the
other hand is similar with previous model runs in keeping the low
up off the BC coast and bringing some kind of cold front and
slightly negatively tilted trough axis through our area by
Wednesday. Needless to say two completely different scenarios with
two completely different affects on the weather. For now kept
forecast similar to what we previously had and trended toward the
ECMWF which is also similarly supported by the Canadian. Lowered
our chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday to slight chance and kept
our better chance of showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday.
Temperatures will finally decrease to near average conditions, and
perhaps by Wednesday be below average. /Nisbet

Thursday and Friday: The poor model agreement paints a murky
picture for the extended part of the forecast. The GFS is building
a ridge that will diminish the precip for the region while the
ECMWF brings another Low pressure system through the region. The
forecast leans toward the ECMWF as it has been more consistent
between runs. The region will be impacted by daytime isolated
thunderstorms along the Northern Cascades and weaker chances for
showers in the Idaho Panhandle. Temperatures for the region will
around the mid 80s for highs and lower 50s for lows. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected over the TAF sites for
at least the next 24 hours. Expect some smoke aloft with the best
chance for reduced surface visibilities around sunrise when the
inversion is the strongest. High pressure across the region means
only light diurnal winds at the TAF sites. JL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        64  97  65  98  69  89 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Coeur d`Alene  59  96  60  98  64  88 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Pullman        57  97  58  97  62  86 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Lewiston       68 104  70 104  72  93 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Colville       57  98  58 100  61  91 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Sandpoint      51  93  53  95  56  88 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Kellogg        59  95  58  97  59  87 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Moses Lake     60 101  63 102  69  93 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      69  99  71 102  75  93 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Omak           61 101  62 102  66  94 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA... Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
Asotin Counties.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 010537
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1037 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Dry and hot weather will persist for the next several days. High
temperatures in the 90s to near 105 will be common through the
weekend. A cooling trend will start off the work week. A more
dramatic change to the hot pattern will be the chance of
thunderstorms each day from Monday through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Saturday: Outside of a few high clouds...and
valley smoke especially along Lake Chelan...the fcst will remain
very warm with overnight low temps and high temps tomorrow well
above average. We`ve extended the heat advsy through Sunday, with
triple digit, or near triple digit, highs expected again tomorrow.
The winds will remain light overall, though we may begin to see
increasing westerly winds in and near Cascade valleys tomorrow
evening.

Saturday Night and Sunday: The strong ridge remains with
continued very hot conditions. Main change to this portion of the
forecast was to extend the heat advisory across the
Lewiston/Clarkston area through Sunday evening. 850 mb temps on
all models show at or slightly warmer temperatures for Sunday
compared to Saturday. So, valley temps in the mid 90s with up to
105 or even slightly higher for those typical hot places across
the Basin/LC Valley/Entiat etc areas. Sunday we should see an
increase in some clouds from the south, but they will be fairly
high thin cirrus and shouldn`t have an impact on temperatures.

Sunday night through Wednesday: Models are in surprisingly good
agreement on Sunday night/Monday of some energy moving up from
the south into the Pacific Northwest. This would bring an increase
and thickening of clouds to the area. Sunday night could be quite
warm given this cloud cover. It is the warmest night currently in
the forecast with temps about 10 degrees above average for this
time of the year. Kept thunderstorms in during the overnight
period for our southeast forecast area. Then stretched that area
north and west into the Columbia Basin and Okanogan Highlands by
Monday morning and through the afternoon. By Monday evening the
best chance of thunderstorms should be confined to extreme eastern
WA and north ID. Sadly, after that wave moves through, the models
totally disagree for the midweek weather. The GFS now brings that
low off the central BC coast inland by Monday and puts us in a
more west or northwesterly flow for Tues/Wed. The ECMWF on the
other hand is similar with previous model runs in keeping the low
up off the BC coast and bringing some kind of cold front and
slightly negatively tilted trough axis through our area by
Wednesday. Needless to say two completely different scenarios with
two completely different affects on the weather. For now kept
forecast similar to what we previously had and trended toward the
ECMWF which is also similarly supported by the Canadian. Lowered
our chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday to slight chance and kept
our better chance of showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday.
Temperatures will finally decrease to near average conditions, and
perhaps by Wednesday be below average. /Nisbet

Thursday and Friday: The poor model agreement paints a murky
picture for the extended part of the forecast. The GFS is building
a ridge that will diminish the precip for the region while the
ECMWF brings another Low pressure system through the region. The
forecast leans toward the ECMWF as it has been more consistent
between runs. The region will be impacted by daytime isolated
thunderstorms along the Northern Cascades and weaker chances for
showers in the Idaho Panhandle. Temperatures for the region will
around the mid 80s for highs and lower 50s for lows. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected over the TAF sites for
at least the next 24 hours. Expect some smoke aloft with the best
chance for reduced surface visibilities around sunrise when the
inversion is the strongest. High pressure across the region means
only light diurnal winds at the TAF sites. JL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        64  97  65  98  69  89 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Coeur d`Alene  59  96  60  98  64  88 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Pullman        57  97  58  97  62  86 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Lewiston       68 104  70 104  72  93 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Colville       57  98  58 100  61  91 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Sandpoint      51  93  53  95  56  88 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Kellogg        59  95  58  97  59  87 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Moses Lake     60 101  63 102  69  93 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      69  99  71 102  75  93 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Omak           61 101  62 102  66  94 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA... Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 010537
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1037 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Dry and hot weather will persist for the next several days. High
temperatures in the 90s to near 105 will be common through the
weekend. A cooling trend will start off the work week. A more
dramatic change to the hot pattern will be the chance of
thunderstorms each day from Monday through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Saturday: Outside of a few high clouds...and
valley smoke especially along Lake Chelan...the fcst will remain
very warm with overnight low temps and high temps tomorrow well
above average. We`ve extended the heat advsy through Sunday, with
triple digit, or near triple digit, highs expected again tomorrow.
The winds will remain light overall, though we may begin to see
increasing westerly winds in and near Cascade valleys tomorrow
evening.

Saturday Night and Sunday: The strong ridge remains with
continued very hot conditions. Main change to this portion of the
forecast was to extend the heat advisory across the
Lewiston/Clarkston area through Sunday evening. 850 mb temps on
all models show at or slightly warmer temperatures for Sunday
compared to Saturday. So, valley temps in the mid 90s with up to
105 or even slightly higher for those typical hot places across
the Basin/LC Valley/Entiat etc areas. Sunday we should see an
increase in some clouds from the south, but they will be fairly
high thin cirrus and shouldn`t have an impact on temperatures.

Sunday night through Wednesday: Models are in surprisingly good
agreement on Sunday night/Monday of some energy moving up from
the south into the Pacific Northwest. This would bring an increase
and thickening of clouds to the area. Sunday night could be quite
warm given this cloud cover. It is the warmest night currently in
the forecast with temps about 10 degrees above average for this
time of the year. Kept thunderstorms in during the overnight
period for our southeast forecast area. Then stretched that area
north and west into the Columbia Basin and Okanogan Highlands by
Monday morning and through the afternoon. By Monday evening the
best chance of thunderstorms should be confined to extreme eastern
WA and north ID. Sadly, after that wave moves through, the models
totally disagree for the midweek weather. The GFS now brings that
low off the central BC coast inland by Monday and puts us in a
more west or northwesterly flow for Tues/Wed. The ECMWF on the
other hand is similar with previous model runs in keeping the low
up off the BC coast and bringing some kind of cold front and
slightly negatively tilted trough axis through our area by
Wednesday. Needless to say two completely different scenarios with
two completely different affects on the weather. For now kept
forecast similar to what we previously had and trended toward the
ECMWF which is also similarly supported by the Canadian. Lowered
our chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday to slight chance and kept
our better chance of showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday.
Temperatures will finally decrease to near average conditions, and
perhaps by Wednesday be below average. /Nisbet

Thursday and Friday: The poor model agreement paints a murky
picture for the extended part of the forecast. The GFS is building
a ridge that will diminish the precip for the region while the
ECMWF brings another Low pressure system through the region. The
forecast leans toward the ECMWF as it has been more consistent
between runs. The region will be impacted by daytime isolated
thunderstorms along the Northern Cascades and weaker chances for
showers in the Idaho Panhandle. Temperatures for the region will
around the mid 80s for highs and lower 50s for lows. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected over the TAF sites for
at least the next 24 hours. Expect some smoke aloft with the best
chance for reduced surface visibilities around sunrise when the
inversion is the strongest. High pressure across the region means
only light diurnal winds at the TAF sites. JL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        64  97  65  98  69  89 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Coeur d`Alene  59  96  60  98  64  88 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Pullman        57  97  58  97  62  86 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Lewiston       68 104  70 104  72  93 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Colville       57  98  58 100  61  91 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Sandpoint      51  93  53  95  56  88 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Kellogg        59  95  58  97  59  87 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Moses Lake     60 101  63 102  69  93 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      69  99  71 102  75  93 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Omak           61 101  62 102  66  94 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA... Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
Asotin Counties.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KPQR 010408
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
908 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE INLAND AREAS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TO THE OREGON CASCADE CREST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.

&&

.UPDATE...INCREASED SUBSIDENCE TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD SHOULD LIMIT MARINE STRATUS. THINK SOME MAY STILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL BE VERY SHALLOW
AND NOT MOVE INLAND.

HAVE EXTENDED THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE INTERIOR LOW LANDS
THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE
FOOTHILLS AND THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER ON
SATURDAY...BUT THEY WILL STILL BE VERY HOT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD HELP LIMIT WARMING IN
THE NORTHERN AREAS. HAVE THEREFORE DROPPED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE AND THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER ALONG THE I-5
CORRIDOR. THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY SHOULD BE BELOW 100 DEGREES
SATURDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
WARRANTING A HEAT WARNING. THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY
HAVE BETTER CHANCES FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR 100. TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AS OF 230 PM...INLAND
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE REGION AND REMAIN ON
TRACK TO REACH OR EXCEED THE CENTURY MARK AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL MEET OR EXCEED
YESTERDAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS. THE COASTAL STRIP REMAINS
QUITE PLEASANT WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY DRIFTING
NORTHWARD FROM NOCAL AND THE GREAT BASIN WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS
BUILDING ALONG THE CASCADE CREST IN LANE COUNTY.  THE STEERING FLOW
REMAINS OUT OF SOUTHWEST SO ANY CLOUD BUILD UPS WILL REMAIN ON OR
EAST OF THE CASCADE CREST.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST DURING THE
WEEKEND...THE MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME OF THE INITIAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE TOO
HIGH TO PRODUCE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...BUT THIS MAY
BEGIN TO CHANGE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY ACROSS EASTERN LANE AND
LINN COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THOUGH...AS MODELS DO NOT
REALLY SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF A MID LEVEL TRIGGER.

THE INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS COMBINED WITH THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DECREASE A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...BUT INLAND
DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BELOW 90 DEGREES BY TUESDAY. TW

&&

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...A FEW MODEL
DISCREPANCIES START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY...BUT THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE LOW BY EARLY
TUESDAY WHEREAS THE GFS JUST SKIMS THE TOP OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS THEN HAVE TIMING ISSUES ON BRINGING A
TROUGH OVER THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...WE WILL SEE A GENERAL
COOLING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK
TO NORMAL. COULD SEE A THREAT FOR CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME
SHOWERS CLIP THE SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON COAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION COMES TO FRUITION. /27

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INLAND THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH WEAKER NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT RAMPING BACK UP LATE
SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AREAS OF SMOKE AND CUMULUS MAINLY ABOVE FL080 NEAR
AND ALONG THE CASCADES. COASTAL AREAS HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING
LOW STRATUS REDEVELOP AROUND 10Z SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING DOWN
CIGS AND VIS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
AROUND 16Z. KONP HAS ALREADY STARTED TO SEE SOME REDUCTIONS IN VIS
AND WILL PROBABLY BOUNCE IN AND OUT OF MVFR VIS AGAIN THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN BY 18Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAKER NORTHERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT STARTING TO INCREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AROUND 17Z
SATURDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH THERMAL TROUGH INLAND WILL
KEEP GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT STRONGER WINDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS...AND SOMEWHAT WEAKER WINDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS
THIS EVENING APPEAR TO BE GUSTING TO RIGHT AROUND 20 KTS AND COULD
INCREASE A BIT MORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SEAS REMAIN
DOMINATED BY N TO NW WIND WAVE AND FRESH SWELL...CREATING STEEP
SEAS ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS WHERE WINDS ARE A BIT
STRONGER MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SEAS CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY N TO NW WIND WAVES AND FRESH
SWELL THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH STEEPER SEAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS APPEARS TO
WEAKEN A BIT ON MONDAY ALLOWING A WEAK FRONT TO SLIDE THROUGH THE
WATERS. THIS FRONT SHOULD BRING WINDS AND SEAS DOWN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD
     RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON
     CASCADE FOOTHILLS-EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST
     RANGE-MT. HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE CREST-NORTH
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE-
     WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST-WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-NORTHERN
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

WA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CLARK COUNTY
     LOWLANDS-EAST WILLAPA HILLS-EXTREME SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 010408
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
908 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE INLAND AREAS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TO THE OREGON CASCADE CREST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.

&&

.UPDATE...INCREASED SUBSIDENCE TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD SHOULD LIMIT MARINE STRATUS. THINK SOME MAY STILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL BE VERY SHALLOW
AND NOT MOVE INLAND.

HAVE EXTENDED THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE INTERIOR LOW LANDS
THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE
FOOTHILLS AND THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER ON
SATURDAY...BUT THEY WILL STILL BE VERY HOT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD HELP LIMIT WARMING IN
THE NORTHERN AREAS. HAVE THEREFORE DROPPED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE AND THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER ALONG THE I-5
CORRIDOR. THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY SHOULD BE BELOW 100 DEGREES
SATURDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
WARRANTING A HEAT WARNING. THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY
HAVE BETTER CHANCES FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR 100. TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AS OF 230 PM...INLAND
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE REGION AND REMAIN ON
TRACK TO REACH OR EXCEED THE CENTURY MARK AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL MEET OR EXCEED
YESTERDAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS. THE COASTAL STRIP REMAINS
QUITE PLEASANT WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY DRIFTING
NORTHWARD FROM NOCAL AND THE GREAT BASIN WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS
BUILDING ALONG THE CASCADE CREST IN LANE COUNTY.  THE STEERING FLOW
REMAINS OUT OF SOUTHWEST SO ANY CLOUD BUILD UPS WILL REMAIN ON OR
EAST OF THE CASCADE CREST.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST DURING THE
WEEKEND...THE MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME OF THE INITIAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE TOO
HIGH TO PRODUCE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...BUT THIS MAY
BEGIN TO CHANGE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY ACROSS EASTERN LANE AND
LINN COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THOUGH...AS MODELS DO NOT
REALLY SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF A MID LEVEL TRIGGER.

THE INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS COMBINED WITH THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DECREASE A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...BUT INLAND
DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BELOW 90 DEGREES BY TUESDAY. TW

&&

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...A FEW MODEL
DISCREPANCIES START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY...BUT THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE LOW BY EARLY
TUESDAY WHEREAS THE GFS JUST SKIMS THE TOP OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS THEN HAVE TIMING ISSUES ON BRINGING A
TROUGH OVER THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...WE WILL SEE A GENERAL
COOLING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK
TO NORMAL. COULD SEE A THREAT FOR CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME
SHOWERS CLIP THE SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON COAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION COMES TO FRUITION. /27

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INLAND THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH WEAKER NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT RAMPING BACK UP LATE
SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AREAS OF SMOKE AND CUMULUS MAINLY ABOVE FL080 NEAR
AND ALONG THE CASCADES. COASTAL AREAS HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING
LOW STRATUS REDEVELOP AROUND 10Z SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING DOWN
CIGS AND VIS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
AROUND 16Z. KONP HAS ALREADY STARTED TO SEE SOME REDUCTIONS IN VIS
AND WILL PROBABLY BOUNCE IN AND OUT OF MVFR VIS AGAIN THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN BY 18Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAKER NORTHERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT STARTING TO INCREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AROUND 17Z
SATURDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH THERMAL TROUGH INLAND WILL
KEEP GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT STRONGER WINDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS...AND SOMEWHAT WEAKER WINDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS
THIS EVENING APPEAR TO BE GUSTING TO RIGHT AROUND 20 KTS AND COULD
INCREASE A BIT MORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SEAS REMAIN
DOMINATED BY N TO NW WIND WAVE AND FRESH SWELL...CREATING STEEP
SEAS ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS WHERE WINDS ARE A BIT
STRONGER MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SEAS CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY N TO NW WIND WAVES AND FRESH
SWELL THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH STEEPER SEAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS APPEARS TO
WEAKEN A BIT ON MONDAY ALLOWING A WEAK FRONT TO SLIDE THROUGH THE
WATERS. THIS FRONT SHOULD BRING WINDS AND SEAS DOWN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD
     RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON
     CASCADE FOOTHILLS-EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST
     RANGE-MT. HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE CREST-NORTH
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE-
     WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST-WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-NORTHERN
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

WA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CLARK COUNTY
     LOWLANDS-EAST WILLAPA HILLS-EXTREME SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 010320
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
820 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR
COOLER WEATHER. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT EXCEPT AT THE COAST
WHERE A LITTLE STRATUS OR FOG COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT UNDER WEAK
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW.

SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY FOR THE INTERIOR WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL. UPPER HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO FALL SLIGHTLY
BUT THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY WARM A LITTLE AND LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK AND NORTHWESTERLY. HIGHS SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S FOR PARTS OF THE INTERIOR. A
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SEATTLE SOUTHWARD.

UPPER HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...ONSHORE
FLOW WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER WARM DAY FOR THE INTERIOR...BUT PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES
COOLER COMPARED TO SATURDAY FOR MOST SPOTS.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT AND NOTICEABLE COOL-DOWN WILL OCCUR MONDAY. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BECOME STRONG AND MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. HIGHS SHOULD COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES...BACK TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ON TUESDAY MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE
AREA. EXPECT CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT PERHAPS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE MODELS DIVERGE...WITH THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DROPPING DOWN
ALONG THE COAST FROM HAIDA GWAII AND MOVING DIRECTLY OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY. IN THIS CASE...THE WHOLE AREA COULD SEE
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND HIGHS COULD FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE
TWO MOST RECENT GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN OUTLIERS...BRINGING THE LOW WELL
TO THE NORTH OF US ACROSS NORTHERN BC. IN THIS CASE...THE AREA WOULD
NOT SEE ANY SHOWERS AT ALL AND SEE NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK...HOPEFULLY THE MODELS WILL
BEGIN TO CONVERGE ON A SINGLE SOLUTION. JSMITH

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT W-SW FLOW ALOFT. EXCEPT
FOR AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS MAINLY OVER WATER
AREAS...THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM...DRY AND STABLE. THE
DENSITY ALTITUDE WILL BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AFTER
09Z ALONG THE COAST AND PARTWAY INLAND BETWEEN KHQM AND KSHN...AND
IN THE WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...BRINGING LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS. THE STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AGAIN BY 18Z SATURDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE W WA.

KSEA...CLEAR SKIES FOR GOOD VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN N-NE 3-7 KT TONIGHT THEN RISE TO N-NW 5-10 KT AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY. KAM

&&

.MARINE...A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL COMBINE WITH LOWER
PRESSURE OVER E WA TO MAINTAIN VARYING DEGREES OF ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATE
TO STRONG DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THIS WEEKEND
WITH POSSIBLE GALES IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY AS WELL.
THESE SCA NW WINDS MAY REACH THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THERE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A POSSIBLE GALE IN THE
STRAIT SATURDAY EVENING. THE 18Z GFS SHOWED ABOUT THE SAME UIL-BLI
PRESSURE GRADIENT SATURDAY EVENING AS THIS EVENING...WHICH SO FAR
HAS ONLY PRODUCED 29 KT AT RACE ROCKS. THE U.S. MESO MODELS ALL SHOW
WINDS WELL BELOW GALE. THE 18Z CANADIAN 2.5 KM LAM ONLY SHOWED A
BRIEF TINY AREA OF POSSIBLE GALE WINDS. FOR NOW THE GALE WATCH WILL
CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY EVENING. SOMEWHAT WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
PREVAIL NEXT WEEK. KAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A CRITICAL PERIOD FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONTINUES OVER ALL OF WESTERN WASHINGTON...WITH A VERY DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE IMMEDIATE COAST HAS SEEN SOME RELIEF THIS
AFTERNOON FROM SEA BREEZES WHICH HAVE RAISED DEWPOINTS INTO THE
UPPER 50S AT HOQUIAM AND QUILLAYUTE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON...DRY AIR PERSISTS.

IN ADDITION...ELEVATED MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE FEELING THE ADDED
EFFECT OF SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL AIR...WITH BOTH MID-LEVEL AND
HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 5 CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BURST OF SMOKE THIS AFTERNOON
COMING FROM THE PARADISE FIRE...SO IT APPEARS THE FIRE IS FEELING
THE EFFECTS OF THE DRY AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WILL KEEP THE RED
FLAG WARNING GOING FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET UNTIL SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE DRY AND UNSTABLE AIR MAS. LARGE FIRE GROWTH IN
WESTERN WASHINGTON HISTORICALLY TAKES PLACE UNDER SUCH CONDITIONS.
HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR BELLEVUE AND VICINITY-
     EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-SEATTLE AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST
     INTERIOR-TACOMA AREA.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL CASCADES-
     EAST PORTION OF THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS-NORTH CASCADES-WEST
     PORTION OF THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL U.S.
     WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT
     OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE
     U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.


&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KSEW 010320
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
820 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR
COOLER WEATHER. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT EXCEPT AT THE COAST
WHERE A LITTLE STRATUS OR FOG COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT UNDER WEAK
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW.

SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY FOR THE INTERIOR WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL. UPPER HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO FALL SLIGHTLY
BUT THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY WARM A LITTLE AND LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK AND NORTHWESTERLY. HIGHS SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S FOR PARTS OF THE INTERIOR. A
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SEATTLE SOUTHWARD.

UPPER HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...ONSHORE
FLOW WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER WARM DAY FOR THE INTERIOR...BUT PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES
COOLER COMPARED TO SATURDAY FOR MOST SPOTS.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT AND NOTICEABLE COOL-DOWN WILL OCCUR MONDAY. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BECOME STRONG AND MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. HIGHS SHOULD COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES...BACK TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ON TUESDAY MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE
AREA. EXPECT CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT PERHAPS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE MODELS DIVERGE...WITH THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DROPPING DOWN
ALONG THE COAST FROM HAIDA GWAII AND MOVING DIRECTLY OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY. IN THIS CASE...THE WHOLE AREA COULD SEE
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND HIGHS COULD FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE
TWO MOST RECENT GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN OUTLIERS...BRINGING THE LOW WELL
TO THE NORTH OF US ACROSS NORTHERN BC. IN THIS CASE...THE AREA WOULD
NOT SEE ANY SHOWERS AT ALL AND SEE NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK...HOPEFULLY THE MODELS WILL
BEGIN TO CONVERGE ON A SINGLE SOLUTION. JSMITH

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT W-SW FLOW ALOFT. EXCEPT
FOR AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS MAINLY OVER WATER
AREAS...THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM...DRY AND STABLE. THE
DENSITY ALTITUDE WILL BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AFTER
09Z ALONG THE COAST AND PARTWAY INLAND BETWEEN KHQM AND KSHN...AND
IN THE WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...BRINGING LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS. THE STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AGAIN BY 18Z SATURDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE W WA.

KSEA...CLEAR SKIES FOR GOOD VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN N-NE 3-7 KT TONIGHT THEN RISE TO N-NW 5-10 KT AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY. KAM

&&

.MARINE...A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL COMBINE WITH LOWER
PRESSURE OVER E WA TO MAINTAIN VARYING DEGREES OF ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATE
TO STRONG DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THIS WEEKEND
WITH POSSIBLE GALES IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY AS WELL.
THESE SCA NW WINDS MAY REACH THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THERE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A POSSIBLE GALE IN THE
STRAIT SATURDAY EVENING. THE 18Z GFS SHOWED ABOUT THE SAME UIL-BLI
PRESSURE GRADIENT SATURDAY EVENING AS THIS EVENING...WHICH SO FAR
HAS ONLY PRODUCED 29 KT AT RACE ROCKS. THE U.S. MESO MODELS ALL SHOW
WINDS WELL BELOW GALE. THE 18Z CANADIAN 2.5 KM LAM ONLY SHOWED A
BRIEF TINY AREA OF POSSIBLE GALE WINDS. FOR NOW THE GALE WATCH WILL
CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY EVENING. SOMEWHAT WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
PREVAIL NEXT WEEK. KAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A CRITICAL PERIOD FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONTINUES OVER ALL OF WESTERN WASHINGTON...WITH A VERY DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE IMMEDIATE COAST HAS SEEN SOME RELIEF THIS
AFTERNOON FROM SEA BREEZES WHICH HAVE RAISED DEWPOINTS INTO THE
UPPER 50S AT HOQUIAM AND QUILLAYUTE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON...DRY AIR PERSISTS.

IN ADDITION...ELEVATED MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE FEELING THE ADDED
EFFECT OF SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL AIR...WITH BOTH MID-LEVEL AND
HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 5 CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BURST OF SMOKE THIS AFTERNOON
COMING FROM THE PARADISE FIRE...SO IT APPEARS THE FIRE IS FEELING
THE EFFECTS OF THE DRY AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WILL KEEP THE RED
FLAG WARNING GOING FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET UNTIL SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE DRY AND UNSTABLE AIR MAS. LARGE FIRE GROWTH IN
WESTERN WASHINGTON HISTORICALLY TAKES PLACE UNDER SUCH CONDITIONS.
HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR BELLEVUE AND VICINITY-
     EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-SEATTLE AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST
     INTERIOR-TACOMA AREA.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL CASCADES-
     EAST PORTION OF THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS-NORTH CASCADES-WEST
     PORTION OF THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL U.S.
     WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT
     OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE
     U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.


&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KOTX 312327
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
427 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Dry and hot weather will persist for the next several days. High
temperatures in the 90s to near 105 will be common through the
weekend. A cooling trend will start off the work week. A more
dramatic change to the hot pattern will be the chance of
thunderstorms each day from Monday through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Saturday: Outside of a few high clouds...and
valley smoke especially along Lake Chelan...the fcst will remain
very warm with overnight low temps and high temps tomorrow well
above average. We`ve extended the heat advsy through Sunday, with
triple digit, or near triple digit, highs expected again tomorrow.
The winds will remain light overall, though we may begin to see
increasing westerly winds in and near Cascade valleys tomorrow
evening.

Saturday Night and Sunday: The strong ridge remains with
continued very hot conditions. Main change to this portion of the
forecast was to extend the heat advisory across the
Lewiston/Clarkston area through Sunday evening. 850 mb temps on
all models show at or slightly warmer temperatures for Sunday
compared to Saturday. So, valley temps in the mid 90s with up to
105 or even slightly higher for those typical hot places across
the Basin/LC Valley/Entiat etc areas. Sunday we should see an
increase in some clouds from the south, but they will be fairly
high thin cirrus and shouldn`t have an impact on temperatures.

Sunday night through Wednesday: Models are in surprisingly good
agreement on Sunday night/Monday of some energy moving up from
the south into the Pacific Northwest. This would bring an increase
and thickening of clouds to the area. Sunday night could be quite
warm given this cloud cover. It is the warmest night currently in
the forecast with temps about 10 degrees above average for this
time of the year. Kept thunderstorms in during the overnight
period for our southeast forecast area. Then stretched that area
north and west into the Columbia Basin and Okanogan Highlands by
Monday morning and through the afternoon. By Monday evening the
best chance of thunderstorms should be confined to extreme eastern
WA and north ID. Sadly, after that wave moves through, the models
totally disagree for the midweek weather. The GFS now brings that
low off the central BC coast inland by Monday and puts us in a
more west or northwesterly flow for Tues/Wed. The ECMWF on the
other hand is similar with previous model runs in keeping the low
up off the BC coast and bringing some kind of cold front and
slightly negatively tilted trough axis through our area by
Wednesday. Needless to say two completely different scenarios with
two completely different affects on the weather. For now kept
forecast similar to what we previously had and trended toward the
ECMWF which is also similarly supported by the Canadian. Lowered
our chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday to slight chance and kept
our better chance of showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday.
Temperatures will finally decrease to near average conditions, and
perhaps by Wednesday be below average. /Nisbet

Thursday and Friday: The poor model agreement paints a murky
picture for the extended part of the forecast. The GFS is building
a ridge that will diminish the precip for the region while the
ECMWF brings another Low pressure system through the region. The
forecast leans toward the ECMWF as it has been more consistent
between runs. The region will be impacted by daytime isolated
thunderstorms along the Northern Cascades and weaker chances for
showers in the Idaho Panhandle. Temperatures for the region will
around the mid 80s for highs and lower 50s for lows. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected over the TAF sites for
at least the next 24 hours. Smoke is possible in some locations
including the northern Cascade and Okanogan valleys. Expect
possible lower visibilities when inversions are strongest, around
sunrise. Light diurnal winds expected thru the forecast period.
JL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        64  97  65  98  69  89 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Coeur d`Alene  59  96  60  98  64  88 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Pullman        57  97  58  97  62  86 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Lewiston       68 104  70 104  72  93 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Colville       57  98  58 100  61  91 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Sandpoint      51  93  53  95  56  88 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Kellogg        59  95  58  97  59  87 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Moses Lake     60 101  63 102  69  93 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      69  99  71 102  75  93 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Omak           61 101  62 102  66  94 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA... Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 312327
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
427 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Dry and hot weather will persist for the next several days. High
temperatures in the 90s to near 105 will be common through the
weekend. A cooling trend will start off the work week. A more
dramatic change to the hot pattern will be the chance of
thunderstorms each day from Monday through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Saturday: Outside of a few high clouds...and
valley smoke especially along Lake Chelan...the fcst will remain
very warm with overnight low temps and high temps tomorrow well
above average. We`ve extended the heat advsy through Sunday, with
triple digit, or near triple digit, highs expected again tomorrow.
The winds will remain light overall, though we may begin to see
increasing westerly winds in and near Cascade valleys tomorrow
evening.

Saturday Night and Sunday: The strong ridge remains with
continued very hot conditions. Main change to this portion of the
forecast was to extend the heat advisory across the
Lewiston/Clarkston area through Sunday evening. 850 mb temps on
all models show at or slightly warmer temperatures for Sunday
compared to Saturday. So, valley temps in the mid 90s with up to
105 or even slightly higher for those typical hot places across
the Basin/LC Valley/Entiat etc areas. Sunday we should see an
increase in some clouds from the south, but they will be fairly
high thin cirrus and shouldn`t have an impact on temperatures.

Sunday night through Wednesday: Models are in surprisingly good
agreement on Sunday night/Monday of some energy moving up from
the south into the Pacific Northwest. This would bring an increase
and thickening of clouds to the area. Sunday night could be quite
warm given this cloud cover. It is the warmest night currently in
the forecast with temps about 10 degrees above average for this
time of the year. Kept thunderstorms in during the overnight
period for our southeast forecast area. Then stretched that area
north and west into the Columbia Basin and Okanogan Highlands by
Monday morning and through the afternoon. By Monday evening the
best chance of thunderstorms should be confined to extreme eastern
WA and north ID. Sadly, after that wave moves through, the models
totally disagree for the midweek weather. The GFS now brings that
low off the central BC coast inland by Monday and puts us in a
more west or northwesterly flow for Tues/Wed. The ECMWF on the
other hand is similar with previous model runs in keeping the low
up off the BC coast and bringing some kind of cold front and
slightly negatively tilted trough axis through our area by
Wednesday. Needless to say two completely different scenarios with
two completely different affects on the weather. For now kept
forecast similar to what we previously had and trended toward the
ECMWF which is also similarly supported by the Canadian. Lowered
our chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday to slight chance and kept
our better chance of showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday.
Temperatures will finally decrease to near average conditions, and
perhaps by Wednesday be below average. /Nisbet

Thursday and Friday: The poor model agreement paints a murky
picture for the extended part of the forecast. The GFS is building
a ridge that will diminish the precip for the region while the
ECMWF brings another Low pressure system through the region. The
forecast leans toward the ECMWF as it has been more consistent
between runs. The region will be impacted by daytime isolated
thunderstorms along the Northern Cascades and weaker chances for
showers in the Idaho Panhandle. Temperatures for the region will
around the mid 80s for highs and lower 50s for lows. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected over the TAF sites for
at least the next 24 hours. Smoke is possible in some locations
including the northern Cascade and Okanogan valleys. Expect
possible lower visibilities when inversions are strongest, around
sunrise. Light diurnal winds expected thru the forecast period.
JL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        64  97  65  98  69  89 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Coeur d`Alene  59  96  60  98  64  88 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Pullman        57  97  58  97  62  86 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Lewiston       68 104  70 104  72  93 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Colville       57  98  58 100  61  91 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Sandpoint      51  93  53  95  56  88 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Kellogg        59  95  58  97  59  87 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Moses Lake     60 101  63 102  69  93 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      69  99  71 102  75  93 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Omak           61 101  62 102  66  94 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA... Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 312327
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
427 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Dry and hot weather will persist for the next several days. High
temperatures in the 90s to near 105 will be common through the
weekend. A cooling trend will start off the work week. A more
dramatic change to the hot pattern will be the chance of
thunderstorms each day from Monday through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Saturday: Outside of a few high clouds...and
valley smoke especially along Lake Chelan...the fcst will remain
very warm with overnight low temps and high temps tomorrow well
above average. We`ve extended the heat advsy through Sunday, with
triple digit, or near triple digit, highs expected again tomorrow.
The winds will remain light overall, though we may begin to see
increasing westerly winds in and near Cascade valleys tomorrow
evening.

Saturday Night and Sunday: The strong ridge remains with
continued very hot conditions. Main change to this portion of the
forecast was to extend the heat advisory across the
Lewiston/Clarkston area through Sunday evening. 850 mb temps on
all models show at or slightly warmer temperatures for Sunday
compared to Saturday. So, valley temps in the mid 90s with up to
105 or even slightly higher for those typical hot places across
the Basin/LC Valley/Entiat etc areas. Sunday we should see an
increase in some clouds from the south, but they will be fairly
high thin cirrus and shouldn`t have an impact on temperatures.

Sunday night through Wednesday: Models are in surprisingly good
agreement on Sunday night/Monday of some energy moving up from
the south into the Pacific Northwest. This would bring an increase
and thickening of clouds to the area. Sunday night could be quite
warm given this cloud cover. It is the warmest night currently in
the forecast with temps about 10 degrees above average for this
time of the year. Kept thunderstorms in during the overnight
period for our southeast forecast area. Then stretched that area
north and west into the Columbia Basin and Okanogan Highlands by
Monday morning and through the afternoon. By Monday evening the
best chance of thunderstorms should be confined to extreme eastern
WA and north ID. Sadly, after that wave moves through, the models
totally disagree for the midweek weather. The GFS now brings that
low off the central BC coast inland by Monday and puts us in a
more west or northwesterly flow for Tues/Wed. The ECMWF on the
other hand is similar with previous model runs in keeping the low
up off the BC coast and bringing some kind of cold front and
slightly negatively tilted trough axis through our area by
Wednesday. Needless to say two completely different scenarios with
two completely different affects on the weather. For now kept
forecast similar to what we previously had and trended toward the
ECMWF which is also similarly supported by the Canadian. Lowered
our chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday to slight chance and kept
our better chance of showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday.
Temperatures will finally decrease to near average conditions, and
perhaps by Wednesday be below average. /Nisbet

Thursday and Friday: The poor model agreement paints a murky
picture for the extended part of the forecast. The GFS is building
a ridge that will diminish the precip for the region while the
ECMWF brings another Low pressure system through the region. The
forecast leans toward the ECMWF as it has been more consistent
between runs. The region will be impacted by daytime isolated
thunderstorms along the Northern Cascades and weaker chances for
showers in the Idaho Panhandle. Temperatures for the region will
around the mid 80s for highs and lower 50s for lows. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected over the TAF sites for
at least the next 24 hours. Smoke is possible in some locations
including the northern Cascade and Okanogan valleys. Expect
possible lower visibilities when inversions are strongest, around
sunrise. Light diurnal winds expected thru the forecast period.
JL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        64  97  65  98  69  89 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Coeur d`Alene  59  96  60  98  64  88 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Pullman        57  97  58  97  62  86 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Lewiston       68 104  70 104  72  93 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Colville       57  98  58 100  61  91 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Sandpoint      51  93  53  95  56  88 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Kellogg        59  95  58  97  59  87 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Moses Lake     60 101  63 102  69  93 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      69  99  71 102  75  93 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Omak           61 101  62 102  66  94 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA... Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
Asotin Counties.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 312327
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
427 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Dry and hot weather will persist for the next several days. High
temperatures in the 90s to near 105 will be common through the
weekend. A cooling trend will start off the work week. A more
dramatic change to the hot pattern will be the chance of
thunderstorms each day from Monday through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Saturday: Outside of a few high clouds...and
valley smoke especially along Lake Chelan...the fcst will remain
very warm with overnight low temps and high temps tomorrow well
above average. We`ve extended the heat advsy through Sunday, with
triple digit, or near triple digit, highs expected again tomorrow.
The winds will remain light overall, though we may begin to see
increasing westerly winds in and near Cascade valleys tomorrow
evening.

Saturday Night and Sunday: The strong ridge remains with
continued very hot conditions. Main change to this portion of the
forecast was to extend the heat advisory across the
Lewiston/Clarkston area through Sunday evening. 850 mb temps on
all models show at or slightly warmer temperatures for Sunday
compared to Saturday. So, valley temps in the mid 90s with up to
105 or even slightly higher for those typical hot places across
the Basin/LC Valley/Entiat etc areas. Sunday we should see an
increase in some clouds from the south, but they will be fairly
high thin cirrus and shouldn`t have an impact on temperatures.

Sunday night through Wednesday: Models are in surprisingly good
agreement on Sunday night/Monday of some energy moving up from
the south into the Pacific Northwest. This would bring an increase
and thickening of clouds to the area. Sunday night could be quite
warm given this cloud cover. It is the warmest night currently in
the forecast with temps about 10 degrees above average for this
time of the year. Kept thunderstorms in during the overnight
period for our southeast forecast area. Then stretched that area
north and west into the Columbia Basin and Okanogan Highlands by
Monday morning and through the afternoon. By Monday evening the
best chance of thunderstorms should be confined to extreme eastern
WA and north ID. Sadly, after that wave moves through, the models
totally disagree for the midweek weather. The GFS now brings that
low off the central BC coast inland by Monday and puts us in a
more west or northwesterly flow for Tues/Wed. The ECMWF on the
other hand is similar with previous model runs in keeping the low
up off the BC coast and bringing some kind of cold front and
slightly negatively tilted trough axis through our area by
Wednesday. Needless to say two completely different scenarios with
two completely different affects on the weather. For now kept
forecast similar to what we previously had and trended toward the
ECMWF which is also similarly supported by the Canadian. Lowered
our chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday to slight chance and kept
our better chance of showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday.
Temperatures will finally decrease to near average conditions, and
perhaps by Wednesday be below average. /Nisbet

Thursday and Friday: The poor model agreement paints a murky
picture for the extended part of the forecast. The GFS is building
a ridge that will diminish the precip for the region while the
ECMWF brings another Low pressure system through the region. The
forecast leans toward the ECMWF as it has been more consistent
between runs. The region will be impacted by daytime isolated
thunderstorms along the Northern Cascades and weaker chances for
showers in the Idaho Panhandle. Temperatures for the region will
around the mid 80s for highs and lower 50s for lows. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected over the TAF sites for
at least the next 24 hours. Smoke is possible in some locations
including the northern Cascade and Okanogan valleys. Expect
possible lower visibilities when inversions are strongest, around
sunrise. Light diurnal winds expected thru the forecast period.
JL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        64  97  65  98  69  89 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Coeur d`Alene  59  96  60  98  64  88 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Pullman        57  97  58  97  62  86 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Lewiston       68 104  70 104  72  93 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Colville       57  98  58 100  61  91 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Sandpoint      51  93  53  95  56  88 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Kellogg        59  95  58  97  59  87 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Moses Lake     60 101  63 102  69  93 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      69  99  71 102  75  93 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Omak           61 101  62 102  66  94 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA... Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
Asotin Counties.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSEW 312242
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRINGING HOT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY...WHEN IT
WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL NEAR THE
AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER
THE AREA. GRADIENTS NEAR THE SURFACE ARE NWLY AND THE FLOW IS LIGHT
TO MODERATE NLY AND ONSHORE. HIGHS MAY COOL OFF SLIGHTLY SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS DECREASING BY A FEW
DMS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM
THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WELL AS SATURDAY
NIGHT TO REMAIN AS HIGH AS THE MID 60S IN THE PUGET SOUND AREA.

LATER SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY MORNING...EXPECT A WEAK MARINE PUSH TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS SURFACE GRADIENTS SWITCH TO MORE WLY OR
SWLY AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD.
THIS SHOULD MODERATE TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT...DROPPING HIGHS INTO
THE 70S AND LOWER 80S ON MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY BRINGING AREAS OF
MORNING CLOUDS. JSMITH

.LONG TERM...ON TUESDAY MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA. EXPECT CONDITIONS
SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE MODELS DIVERGE...WITH THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DROPPING DOWN
ALONG THE COAST FROM HAIDA GWAII AND MOVING DIRECTLY OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY. IN THIS CASE...THE WHOLE AREA COULD SEE
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND HIGHS COULD FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE
TWO MOST RECENT GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN OUTLIERS...BRINGING THE LOW WELL
TO THE NORTH OF US ACROSS NORTHERN BC. IN THIS CASE...THE AREA WOULD
NOT SEE ANY SHOWERS AT ALL AND SEE NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK...HOPEFULLY THE MODELS WILL
BEGIN TO CONVERGE ON A SINGLE SOLUTION. JSMITH

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE DRY AND STABLE.

STRATUS WILL PROBABLY FORM ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST AND IN THE
WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TONIGHT...BRINGING LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS TO ADJACENT LAND AREAS. THE STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AGAIN
SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

KSEA...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND MOSTLY 4-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOWER PRESSURE EAST
OF THE CASCADES WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
LIKELY OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWESTERLIES DURING
THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO COASTAL INNER COASTAL WATERS
ZONES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES ARE LIKELY IN THE CENTRAL
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT TONIGHT...WITH GALE
FORCE WESTERLIES POSSIBLE THERE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A
GALE WATCH IS BEING ISSUED WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
SOMEWHAT WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A CRITICAL PERIOD FOR FIRE WEATHER CONTINUES OVER
ALL OF WESTERN WASHINGTON...WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE
IMMEDIATE COAST IS SEEING SOME RELIEF THIS AFTERNOON FROM SEA BREEZES
WHICH HAVE RAISED DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S AT HOQUIAM AND
QUILLAYUTE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON...DRY AIR PERSISTS.

IN ADDITION...ELEVATED MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE FEELING THE ADDED
EFFECT OF SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL AIR...WITH BOTH MID-LEVEL AND
HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 5 CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BURST OF SMOKE THIS AFTERNOON
COMING FROM THE PARADISE FIRE...SO IT APPEARS THE FIRE IS FEELING
THE EFFECTS OF THE DRY AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG
WARNING GOING FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE DRY AND UNSTABLE AIR MAS. LARGE FIRE GROWTH IN WESTERN
WASHINGTON HISTORICALLY TAKES PLACE UNDER SUCH CONDITIONS.HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 8 PM SUNDAY FOR PARTS OF
     THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

     RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TIL 10 PM SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
 CASCADES AND OLYMPICS ABOVE 2000 FEET.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT ZONE 150...CENTRAL
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.
     GALE WATCH CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...EAST ENTRANCE
     STRAIT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 312242
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRINGING HOT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY...WHEN IT
WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL NEAR THE
AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER
THE AREA. GRADIENTS NEAR THE SURFACE ARE NWLY AND THE FLOW IS LIGHT
TO MODERATE NLY AND ONSHORE. HIGHS MAY COOL OFF SLIGHTLY SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS DECREASING BY A FEW
DMS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM
THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WELL AS SATURDAY
NIGHT TO REMAIN AS HIGH AS THE MID 60S IN THE PUGET SOUND AREA.

LATER SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY MORNING...EXPECT A WEAK MARINE PUSH TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS SURFACE GRADIENTS SWITCH TO MORE WLY OR
SWLY AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD.
THIS SHOULD MODERATE TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT...DROPPING HIGHS INTO
THE 70S AND LOWER 80S ON MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY BRINGING AREAS OF
MORNING CLOUDS. JSMITH

.LONG TERM...ON TUESDAY MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA. EXPECT CONDITIONS
SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE MODELS DIVERGE...WITH THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DROPPING DOWN
ALONG THE COAST FROM HAIDA GWAII AND MOVING DIRECTLY OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY. IN THIS CASE...THE WHOLE AREA COULD SEE
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND HIGHS COULD FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE
TWO MOST RECENT GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN OUTLIERS...BRINGING THE LOW WELL
TO THE NORTH OF US ACROSS NORTHERN BC. IN THIS CASE...THE AREA WOULD
NOT SEE ANY SHOWERS AT ALL AND SEE NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK...HOPEFULLY THE MODELS WILL
BEGIN TO CONVERGE ON A SINGLE SOLUTION. JSMITH

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE DRY AND STABLE.

STRATUS WILL PROBABLY FORM ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST AND IN THE
WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TONIGHT...BRINGING LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS TO ADJACENT LAND AREAS. THE STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AGAIN
SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

KSEA...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND MOSTLY 4-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOWER PRESSURE EAST
OF THE CASCADES WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
LIKELY OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWESTERLIES DURING
THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO COASTAL INNER COASTAL WATERS
ZONES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES ARE LIKELY IN THE CENTRAL
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT TONIGHT...WITH GALE
FORCE WESTERLIES POSSIBLE THERE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A
GALE WATCH IS BEING ISSUED WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
SOMEWHAT WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A CRITICAL PERIOD FOR FIRE WEATHER CONTINUES OVER
ALL OF WESTERN WASHINGTON...WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE
IMMEDIATE COAST IS SEEING SOME RELIEF THIS AFTERNOON FROM SEA BREEZES
WHICH HAVE RAISED DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S AT HOQUIAM AND
QUILLAYUTE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON...DRY AIR PERSISTS.

IN ADDITION...ELEVATED MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE FEELING THE ADDED
EFFECT OF SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL AIR...WITH BOTH MID-LEVEL AND
HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 5 CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BURST OF SMOKE THIS AFTERNOON
COMING FROM THE PARADISE FIRE...SO IT APPEARS THE FIRE IS FEELING
THE EFFECTS OF THE DRY AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG
WARNING GOING FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE DRY AND UNSTABLE AIR MAS. LARGE FIRE GROWTH IN WESTERN
WASHINGTON HISTORICALLY TAKES PLACE UNDER SUCH CONDITIONS.HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 8 PM SUNDAY FOR PARTS OF
     THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

     RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TIL 10 PM SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
 CASCADES AND OLYMPICS ABOVE 2000 FEET.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT ZONE 150...CENTRAL
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.
     GALE WATCH CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...EAST ENTRANCE
     STRAIT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KOTX 312135
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
235 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Dry and hot weather will persist for the next several days. High
temperatures in the 90s to near 105 will be common through the
weekend. A cooling trend will start off the work week. A more
dramatic change to the hot pattern is the chance of thunderstorms
each day from Monday through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Saturday: Outside of a few high clouds...and
valley smoke especially along Lake Chelan...the fcst will remain
very warm with overnight low temps and high temps tomorrow well
above average. We`ve extended the heat advsy through Sunday, with
triple digit, or near triple digit, highs expected again tomorrow.
The winds will remain light overall, though we may begin to see
increasing westerly winds in and near Cascade valleys tomorrow
evening.

Saturday Night and Sunday: The strong ridge remains with
continued very hot conditions. Main change to this portion of the
forecast was to extend the heat advisory across the
Lewiston/Clarkston area through Sunday evening. 850 mb temps on
all models show at or slightly warmer temperatures for Sunday
compared to Saturday. So, valley temps in the mid 90s with up to
105 or even slightly higher for those typical hot places across
the Basin/LC Valley/Entiat etc areas. Sunday we should see an
increase in some clouds from the south, but they will be fairly
high thin cirrus and shouldn`t have an impact on temperatures.

Sunday night through Wednesday: Models are in surprisingly good
agreement on Sunday night/Monday of some energy moving up from
the south into the Pacific Northwest. This would bring an increase
and thickening of clouds to the area. Sunday night could be quite
warm given this cloud cover. It is the warmest night currently in
the forecast with temps about 10 degrees above average for this
time of the year. Kept thunderstorms in during the overnight
period for our southeast forecast area. Then stretched that area
north and west into the Columbia Basin and Okanogan Highlands by
Monday morning and through the afternoon. By Monday evening the
best chance of thunderstorms should be confined to extreme eastern
WA and north ID. Sadly, after that wave moves through, the models
totally disagree for the midweek weather. The GFS now brings that
low off the central BC coast inland by Monday and puts us in a
more west or northwesterly flow for Tues/Wed. The ECMWF on the
other hand is similar with previous model runs in keeping the low
up off the BC coast and bringing some kind of cold front and
slightly negatively tilted trough axis through our area by
Wednesday. Needless to say two completely different scenarios with
two completely different affects on the weather. For now kept
forecast similar to what we previously had and trended toward the
ECMWF which is also similarly supported by the Canadian. Lowered
our chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday to slight chance and kept
our better chance of showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday.
Temperatures will finally decrease to near average conditions, and
perhaps by Wednesday be below average. /Nisbet

Thursday and Friday: The poor model agreement paints a murky
picture for the extended part of the forecast. The GFS is building
a ridge that will diminish the precip for the region while the
ECMWF brings another Low pressure system through the region. The
forecast leans toward the ECMWF as it has been more consistent
between runs. The region will be impacted by daytime isolated
thunderstorms along the Northern Cascades and weaker chances for
showers in the Idaho Panhandle. Temperatures for the region will
around the mid 80s for highs and lower 50s for lows. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected over the TAF sites for at
least the next 24 hours. Smoke is possible across the northern
Cascades as the current fire near Lake Chelan gets more
active...but is not expected to reduce vsbys at KEAT tonight if
any inversion sets up.bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        64  97  65  98  69  89 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Coeur d`Alene  59  96  60  98  64  88 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Pullman        57  97  58  97  62  86 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Lewiston       68 104  70 104  72  93 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Colville       57  98  58 100  61  91 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Sandpoint      51  93  53  95  56  88 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Kellogg        59  95  58  97  59  87 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Moses Lake     60 101  63 102  69  93 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      69  99  71 102  75  93 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Omak           61 101  62 102  66  94 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA... Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 312135
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
235 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Dry and hot weather will persist for the next several days. High
temperatures in the 90s to near 105 will be common through the
weekend. A cooling trend will start off the work week. A more
dramatic change to the hot pattern is the chance of thunderstorms
each day from Monday through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Saturday: Outside of a few high clouds...and
valley smoke especially along Lake Chelan...the fcst will remain
very warm with overnight low temps and high temps tomorrow well
above average. We`ve extended the heat advsy through Sunday, with
triple digit, or near triple digit, highs expected again tomorrow.
The winds will remain light overall, though we may begin to see
increasing westerly winds in and near Cascade valleys tomorrow
evening.

Saturday Night and Sunday: The strong ridge remains with
continued very hot conditions. Main change to this portion of the
forecast was to extend the heat advisory across the
Lewiston/Clarkston area through Sunday evening. 850 mb temps on
all models show at or slightly warmer temperatures for Sunday
compared to Saturday. So, valley temps in the mid 90s with up to
105 or even slightly higher for those typical hot places across
the Basin/LC Valley/Entiat etc areas. Sunday we should see an
increase in some clouds from the south, but they will be fairly
high thin cirrus and shouldn`t have an impact on temperatures.

Sunday night through Wednesday: Models are in surprisingly good
agreement on Sunday night/Monday of some energy moving up from
the south into the Pacific Northwest. This would bring an increase
and thickening of clouds to the area. Sunday night could be quite
warm given this cloud cover. It is the warmest night currently in
the forecast with temps about 10 degrees above average for this
time of the year. Kept thunderstorms in during the overnight
period for our southeast forecast area. Then stretched that area
north and west into the Columbia Basin and Okanogan Highlands by
Monday morning and through the afternoon. By Monday evening the
best chance of thunderstorms should be confined to extreme eastern
WA and north ID. Sadly, after that wave moves through, the models
totally disagree for the midweek weather. The GFS now brings that
low off the central BC coast inland by Monday and puts us in a
more west or northwesterly flow for Tues/Wed. The ECMWF on the
other hand is similar with previous model runs in keeping the low
up off the BC coast and bringing some kind of cold front and
slightly negatively tilted trough axis through our area by
Wednesday. Needless to say two completely different scenarios with
two completely different affects on the weather. For now kept
forecast similar to what we previously had and trended toward the
ECMWF which is also similarly supported by the Canadian. Lowered
our chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday to slight chance and kept
our better chance of showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday.
Temperatures will finally decrease to near average conditions, and
perhaps by Wednesday be below average. /Nisbet

Thursday and Friday: The poor model agreement paints a murky
picture for the extended part of the forecast. The GFS is building
a ridge that will diminish the precip for the region while the
ECMWF brings another Low pressure system through the region. The
forecast leans toward the ECMWF as it has been more consistent
between runs. The region will be impacted by daytime isolated
thunderstorms along the Northern Cascades and weaker chances for
showers in the Idaho Panhandle. Temperatures for the region will
around the mid 80s for highs and lower 50s for lows. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected over the TAF sites for at
least the next 24 hours. Smoke is possible across the northern
Cascades as the current fire near Lake Chelan gets more
active...but is not expected to reduce vsbys at KEAT tonight if
any inversion sets up.bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        64  97  65  98  69  89 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Coeur d`Alene  59  96  60  98  64  88 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Pullman        57  97  58  97  62  86 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Lewiston       68 104  70 104  72  93 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Colville       57  98  58 100  61  91 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Sandpoint      51  93  53  95  56  88 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Kellogg        59  95  58  97  59  87 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Moses Lake     60 101  63 102  69  93 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      69  99  71 102  75  93 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Omak           61 101  62 102  66  94 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA... Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 312135
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
235 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Dry and hot weather will persist for the next several days. High
temperatures in the 90s to near 105 will be common through the
weekend. A cooling trend will start off the work week. A more
dramatic change to the hot pattern is the chance of thunderstorms
each day from Monday through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Saturday: Outside of a few high clouds...and
valley smoke especially along Lake Chelan...the fcst will remain
very warm with overnight low temps and high temps tomorrow well
above average. We`ve extended the heat advsy through Sunday, with
triple digit, or near triple digit, highs expected again tomorrow.
The winds will remain light overall, though we may begin to see
increasing westerly winds in and near Cascade valleys tomorrow
evening.

Saturday Night and Sunday: The strong ridge remains with
continued very hot conditions. Main change to this portion of the
forecast was to extend the heat advisory across the
Lewiston/Clarkston area through Sunday evening. 850 mb temps on
all models show at or slightly warmer temperatures for Sunday
compared to Saturday. So, valley temps in the mid 90s with up to
105 or even slightly higher for those typical hot places across
the Basin/LC Valley/Entiat etc areas. Sunday we should see an
increase in some clouds from the south, but they will be fairly
high thin cirrus and shouldn`t have an impact on temperatures.

Sunday night through Wednesday: Models are in surprisingly good
agreement on Sunday night/Monday of some energy moving up from
the south into the Pacific Northwest. This would bring an increase
and thickening of clouds to the area. Sunday night could be quite
warm given this cloud cover. It is the warmest night currently in
the forecast with temps about 10 degrees above average for this
time of the year. Kept thunderstorms in during the overnight
period for our southeast forecast area. Then stretched that area
north and west into the Columbia Basin and Okanogan Highlands by
Monday morning and through the afternoon. By Monday evening the
best chance of thunderstorms should be confined to extreme eastern
WA and north ID. Sadly, after that wave moves through, the models
totally disagree for the midweek weather. The GFS now brings that
low off the central BC coast inland by Monday and puts us in a
more west or northwesterly flow for Tues/Wed. The ECMWF on the
other hand is similar with previous model runs in keeping the low
up off the BC coast and bringing some kind of cold front and
slightly negatively tilted trough axis through our area by
Wednesday. Needless to say two completely different scenarios with
two completely different affects on the weather. For now kept
forecast similar to what we previously had and trended toward the
ECMWF which is also similarly supported by the Canadian. Lowered
our chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday to slight chance and kept
our better chance of showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday.
Temperatures will finally decrease to near average conditions, and
perhaps by Wednesday be below average. /Nisbet

Thursday and Friday: The poor model agreement paints a murky
picture for the extended part of the forecast. The GFS is building
a ridge that will diminish the precip for the region while the
ECMWF brings another Low pressure system through the region. The
forecast leans toward the ECMWF as it has been more consistent
between runs. The region will be impacted by daytime isolated
thunderstorms along the Northern Cascades and weaker chances for
showers in the Idaho Panhandle. Temperatures for the region will
around the mid 80s for highs and lower 50s for lows. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected over the TAF sites for at
least the next 24 hours. Smoke is possible across the northern
Cascades as the current fire near Lake Chelan gets more
active...but is not expected to reduce vsbys at KEAT tonight if
any inversion sets up.bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        64  97  65  98  69  89 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Coeur d`Alene  59  96  60  98  64  88 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Pullman        57  97  58  97  62  86 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Lewiston       68 104  70 104  72  93 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Colville       57  98  58 100  61  91 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Sandpoint      51  93  53  95  56  88 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Kellogg        59  95  58  97  59  87 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Moses Lake     60 101  63 102  69  93 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      69  99  71 102  75  93 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Omak           61 101  62 102  66  94 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA... Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 312135
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
235 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Dry and hot weather will persist for the next several days. High
temperatures in the 90s to near 105 will be common through the
weekend. A cooling trend will start off the work week. A more
dramatic change to the hot pattern is the chance of thunderstorms
each day from Monday through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Saturday: Outside of a few high clouds...and
valley smoke especially along Lake Chelan...the fcst will remain
very warm with overnight low temps and high temps tomorrow well
above average. We`ve extended the heat advsy through Sunday, with
triple digit, or near triple digit, highs expected again tomorrow.
The winds will remain light overall, though we may begin to see
increasing westerly winds in and near Cascade valleys tomorrow
evening.

Saturday Night and Sunday: The strong ridge remains with
continued very hot conditions. Main change to this portion of the
forecast was to extend the heat advisory across the
Lewiston/Clarkston area through Sunday evening. 850 mb temps on
all models show at or slightly warmer temperatures for Sunday
compared to Saturday. So, valley temps in the mid 90s with up to
105 or even slightly higher for those typical hot places across
the Basin/LC Valley/Entiat etc areas. Sunday we should see an
increase in some clouds from the south, but they will be fairly
high thin cirrus and shouldn`t have an impact on temperatures.

Sunday night through Wednesday: Models are in surprisingly good
agreement on Sunday night/Monday of some energy moving up from
the south into the Pacific Northwest. This would bring an increase
and thickening of clouds to the area. Sunday night could be quite
warm given this cloud cover. It is the warmest night currently in
the forecast with temps about 10 degrees above average for this
time of the year. Kept thunderstorms in during the overnight
period for our southeast forecast area. Then stretched that area
north and west into the Columbia Basin and Okanogan Highlands by
Monday morning and through the afternoon. By Monday evening the
best chance of thunderstorms should be confined to extreme eastern
WA and north ID. Sadly, after that wave moves through, the models
totally disagree for the midweek weather. The GFS now brings that
low off the central BC coast inland by Monday and puts us in a
more west or northwesterly flow for Tues/Wed. The ECMWF on the
other hand is similar with previous model runs in keeping the low
up off the BC coast and bringing some kind of cold front and
slightly negatively tilted trough axis through our area by
Wednesday. Needless to say two completely different scenarios with
two completely different affects on the weather. For now kept
forecast similar to what we previously had and trended toward the
ECMWF which is also similarly supported by the Canadian. Lowered
our chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday to slight chance and kept
our better chance of showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday.
Temperatures will finally decrease to near average conditions, and
perhaps by Wednesday be below average. /Nisbet

Thursday and Friday: The poor model agreement paints a murky
picture for the extended part of the forecast. The GFS is building
a ridge that will diminish the precip for the region while the
ECMWF brings another Low pressure system through the region. The
forecast leans toward the ECMWF as it has been more consistent
between runs. The region will be impacted by daytime isolated
thunderstorms along the Northern Cascades and weaker chances for
showers in the Idaho Panhandle. Temperatures for the region will
around the mid 80s for highs and lower 50s for lows. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected over the TAF sites for at
least the next 24 hours. Smoke is possible across the northern
Cascades as the current fire near Lake Chelan gets more
active...but is not expected to reduce vsbys at KEAT tonight if
any inversion sets up.bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        64  97  65  98  69  89 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Coeur d`Alene  59  96  60  98  64  88 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Pullman        57  97  58  97  62  86 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Lewiston       68 104  70 104  72  93 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Colville       57  98  58 100  61  91 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Sandpoint      51  93  53  95  56  88 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Kellogg        59  95  58  97  59  87 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Moses Lake     60 101  63 102  69  93 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      69  99  71 102  75  93 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Omak           61 101  62 102  66  94 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA... Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 312131
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE INLAND AREAS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TO THE OREGON CASCADE CREST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AS OF 230 PM...INLAND
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE REGION AND REMAIN ON
TRACK TO REACH OR EXCEED THE CENTURY MARK AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL MEET OR EXCEED
YESTERDAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS. THE COASTAL STRIP REMAINS
QUITE PLEASANT WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY DRIFTING
NORTHWARD FROM NOCAL AND THE GREAT BASIN WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS
BUILDING ALONG THE CASCADE CREST IN LANE COUNTY.  THE STEERING FLOW
REMAINS OUT OF SOUTHWEST SO ANY CLOUD BUILD UPS WILL REMAIN ON OR
EAST OF THE CASCADE CREST.AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO
SHIFT EAST DURING THE WEEKEND...THE MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS TO THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME OF THE INITIAL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE TOO HIGH TO PRODUCE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
ON SATURDAY...BUT THIS MAY BEGIN TO CHANGE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY ACROSS EASTERN LANE AND LINN COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
THOUGH...AS MODELS DO NOT REALLY SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF A MID LEVEL
TRIGGER.

THE INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS COMBINED WITH THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DECREASE A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...BUT INLAND
DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BELOW 90 DEGREES BY TUESDAY. TW

&&

.LONG TERM...A FEW MODEL DISCREPANCIES START OFF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY...BUT THE
ECMWF DEEPENS THE LOW BY EARLY TUESDAY WHEREAS THE GFS JUST SKIMS
THE TOP OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS THEN
HAVE TIMING ISSUES ON BRINGING A TROUGH OVER THE AREA LATE NEXT
WEEK. OVERALL...WE WILL SEE A GENERAL COOLING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO NORMAL. COULD SEE A THREAT
FOR CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS CLIP THE SW WASHINGTON AND
NW OREGON COAST BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION
COMES TO FRUITION. /27

&&


.AVIATION...INLAND VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE AREAS OF CUMULUS AND SMOKE MAINLY ABOVE FL080 NEAR
AND ALONG THE CASCADES. COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE A SHALLOW REGION OF
LOW STRATUS BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND AS THE SEA BREEZES MATURE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALSO EXPECT GUSTS MAINLY 20 TO 25 KT
THERE WITH LOCALIZED 25 TO 30 KT CLOSER TO FLORENCE. PLANNING ON
THE COASTAL STRATUS/MIST WILL RETURN TONIGHT AS WINDS EASE OVERNIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES LINGERING OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
SUN WILL KEEP N WINDS BLOWING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT THE WINDS TO PICK UP SOME LATER TODAY AS THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRES OVER WESTERN OREGON MOVES FURTHER
INLAND...RESULTING IN WIND GUSTS RISING INTO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE
FROM LATE TODAY INTO SUN. SEAS WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY N TO NW
WIND WAVES AND FRESH SWELL...KEEPING SEAS STEEP AND AT TIMES
NECESSITATING AN ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAINLY DURING LATE
AFTERNOON TO OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS BY LATE SUN AND MON...ALLOWING A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO MOVE S INTO THE WATERS LATE MON. SYSTEM LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH
TO ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD
     RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON
     CASCADE FOOTHILLS-EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST
     RANGE-MT. HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE CREST-NORTH
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE-
     WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST-WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS
     IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-COAST
     RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON
     CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

WA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CLARK COUNTY
     LOWLANDS-EAST WILLAPA HILLS-EXTREME SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR I-5 CORRIDOR IN
     COWLITZ COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL

     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
NM.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 312131
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE INLAND AREAS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TO THE OREGON CASCADE CREST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AS OF 230 PM...INLAND
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE REGION AND REMAIN ON
TRACK TO REACH OR EXCEED THE CENTURY MARK AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL MEET OR EXCEED
YESTERDAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS. THE COASTAL STRIP REMAINS
QUITE PLEASANT WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY DRIFTING
NORTHWARD FROM NOCAL AND THE GREAT BASIN WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS
BUILDING ALONG THE CASCADE CREST IN LANE COUNTY.  THE STEERING FLOW
REMAINS OUT OF SOUTHWEST SO ANY CLOUD BUILD UPS WILL REMAIN ON OR
EAST OF THE CASCADE CREST.AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO
SHIFT EAST DURING THE WEEKEND...THE MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS TO THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME OF THE INITIAL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE TOO HIGH TO PRODUCE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
ON SATURDAY...BUT THIS MAY BEGIN TO CHANGE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY ACROSS EASTERN LANE AND LINN COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
THOUGH...AS MODELS DO NOT REALLY SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF A MID LEVEL
TRIGGER.

THE INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS COMBINED WITH THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DECREASE A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...BUT INLAND
DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BELOW 90 DEGREES BY TUESDAY. TW

&&

.LONG TERM...A FEW MODEL DISCREPANCIES START OFF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY...BUT THE
ECMWF DEEPENS THE LOW BY EARLY TUESDAY WHEREAS THE GFS JUST SKIMS
THE TOP OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS THEN
HAVE TIMING ISSUES ON BRINGING A TROUGH OVER THE AREA LATE NEXT
WEEK. OVERALL...WE WILL SEE A GENERAL COOLING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO NORMAL. COULD SEE A THREAT
FOR CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS CLIP THE SW WASHINGTON AND
NW OREGON COAST BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION
COMES TO FRUITION. /27

&&


.AVIATION...INLAND VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE AREAS OF CUMULUS AND SMOKE MAINLY ABOVE FL080 NEAR
AND ALONG THE CASCADES. COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE A SHALLOW REGION OF
LOW STRATUS BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND AS THE SEA BREEZES MATURE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALSO EXPECT GUSTS MAINLY 20 TO 25 KT
THERE WITH LOCALIZED 25 TO 30 KT CLOSER TO FLORENCE. PLANNING ON
THE COASTAL STRATUS/MIST WILL RETURN TONIGHT AS WINDS EASE OVERNIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES LINGERING OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
SUN WILL KEEP N WINDS BLOWING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT THE WINDS TO PICK UP SOME LATER TODAY AS THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRES OVER WESTERN OREGON MOVES FURTHER
INLAND...RESULTING IN WIND GUSTS RISING INTO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE
FROM LATE TODAY INTO SUN. SEAS WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY N TO NW
WIND WAVES AND FRESH SWELL...KEEPING SEAS STEEP AND AT TIMES
NECESSITATING AN ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAINLY DURING LATE
AFTERNOON TO OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS BY LATE SUN AND MON...ALLOWING A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO MOVE S INTO THE WATERS LATE MON. SYSTEM LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH
TO ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD
     RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON
     CASCADE FOOTHILLS-EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST
     RANGE-MT. HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE CREST-NORTH
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE-
     WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST-WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS
     IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-COAST
     RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON
     CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

WA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CLARK COUNTY
     LOWLANDS-EAST WILLAPA HILLS-EXTREME SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR I-5 CORRIDOR IN
     COWLITZ COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL

     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
NM.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 312131
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE INLAND AREAS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TO THE OREGON CASCADE CREST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AS OF 230 PM...INLAND
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE REGION AND REMAIN ON
TRACK TO REACH OR EXCEED THE CENTURY MARK AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL MEET OR EXCEED
YESTERDAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS. THE COASTAL STRIP REMAINS
QUITE PLEASANT WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY DRIFTING
NORTHWARD FROM NOCAL AND THE GREAT BASIN WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS
BUILDING ALONG THE CASCADE CREST IN LANE COUNTY.  THE STEERING FLOW
REMAINS OUT OF SOUTHWEST SO ANY CLOUD BUILD UPS WILL REMAIN ON OR
EAST OF THE CASCADE CREST.AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO
SHIFT EAST DURING THE WEEKEND...THE MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS TO THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME OF THE INITIAL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE TOO HIGH TO PRODUCE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
ON SATURDAY...BUT THIS MAY BEGIN TO CHANGE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY ACROSS EASTERN LANE AND LINN COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
THOUGH...AS MODELS DO NOT REALLY SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF A MID LEVEL
TRIGGER.

THE INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS COMBINED WITH THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DECREASE A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...BUT INLAND
DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BELOW 90 DEGREES BY TUESDAY. TW

&&

.LONG TERM...A FEW MODEL DISCREPANCIES START OFF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY...BUT THE
ECMWF DEEPENS THE LOW BY EARLY TUESDAY WHEREAS THE GFS JUST SKIMS
THE TOP OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS THEN
HAVE TIMING ISSUES ON BRINGING A TROUGH OVER THE AREA LATE NEXT
WEEK. OVERALL...WE WILL SEE A GENERAL COOLING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO NORMAL. COULD SEE A THREAT
FOR CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS CLIP THE SW WASHINGTON AND
NW OREGON COAST BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION
COMES TO FRUITION. /27

&&


.AVIATION...INLAND VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE AREAS OF CUMULUS AND SMOKE MAINLY ABOVE FL080 NEAR
AND ALONG THE CASCADES. COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE A SHALLOW REGION OF
LOW STRATUS BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND AS THE SEA BREEZES MATURE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALSO EXPECT GUSTS MAINLY 20 TO 25 KT
THERE WITH LOCALIZED 25 TO 30 KT CLOSER TO FLORENCE. PLANNING ON
THE COASTAL STRATUS/MIST WILL RETURN TONIGHT AS WINDS EASE OVERNIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES LINGERING OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
SUN WILL KEEP N WINDS BLOWING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT THE WINDS TO PICK UP SOME LATER TODAY AS THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRES OVER WESTERN OREGON MOVES FURTHER
INLAND...RESULTING IN WIND GUSTS RISING INTO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE
FROM LATE TODAY INTO SUN. SEAS WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY N TO NW
WIND WAVES AND FRESH SWELL...KEEPING SEAS STEEP AND AT TIMES
NECESSITATING AN ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAINLY DURING LATE
AFTERNOON TO OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS BY LATE SUN AND MON...ALLOWING A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO MOVE S INTO THE WATERS LATE MON. SYSTEM LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH
TO ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD
     RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON
     CASCADE FOOTHILLS-EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST
     RANGE-MT. HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE CREST-NORTH
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE-
     WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST-WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS
     IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-COAST
     RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON
     CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

WA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CLARK COUNTY
     LOWLANDS-EAST WILLAPA HILLS-EXTREME SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR I-5 CORRIDOR IN
     COWLITZ COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL

     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
NM.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 312131
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE INLAND AREAS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TO THE OREGON CASCADE CREST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AS OF 230 PM...INLAND
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE REGION AND REMAIN ON
TRACK TO REACH OR EXCEED THE CENTURY MARK AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL MEET OR EXCEED
YESTERDAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS. THE COASTAL STRIP REMAINS
QUITE PLEASANT WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY DRIFTING
NORTHWARD FROM NOCAL AND THE GREAT BASIN WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS
BUILDING ALONG THE CASCADE CREST IN LANE COUNTY.  THE STEERING FLOW
REMAINS OUT OF SOUTHWEST SO ANY CLOUD BUILD UPS WILL REMAIN ON OR
EAST OF THE CASCADE CREST.AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO
SHIFT EAST DURING THE WEEKEND...THE MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS TO THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME OF THE INITIAL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE TOO HIGH TO PRODUCE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
ON SATURDAY...BUT THIS MAY BEGIN TO CHANGE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY ACROSS EASTERN LANE AND LINN COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
THOUGH...AS MODELS DO NOT REALLY SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF A MID LEVEL
TRIGGER.

THE INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS COMBINED WITH THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DECREASE A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...BUT INLAND
DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BELOW 90 DEGREES BY TUESDAY. TW

&&

.LONG TERM...A FEW MODEL DISCREPANCIES START OFF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY...BUT THE
ECMWF DEEPENS THE LOW BY EARLY TUESDAY WHEREAS THE GFS JUST SKIMS
THE TOP OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS THEN
HAVE TIMING ISSUES ON BRINGING A TROUGH OVER THE AREA LATE NEXT
WEEK. OVERALL...WE WILL SEE A GENERAL COOLING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO NORMAL. COULD SEE A THREAT
FOR CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS CLIP THE SW WASHINGTON AND
NW OREGON COAST BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION
COMES TO FRUITION. /27

&&


.AVIATION...INLAND VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE AREAS OF CUMULUS AND SMOKE MAINLY ABOVE FL080 NEAR
AND ALONG THE CASCADES. COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE A SHALLOW REGION OF
LOW STRATUS BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND AS THE SEA BREEZES MATURE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALSO EXPECT GUSTS MAINLY 20 TO 25 KT
THERE WITH LOCALIZED 25 TO 30 KT CLOSER TO FLORENCE. PLANNING ON
THE COASTAL STRATUS/MIST WILL RETURN TONIGHT AS WINDS EASE OVERNIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES LINGERING OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
SUN WILL KEEP N WINDS BLOWING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT THE WINDS TO PICK UP SOME LATER TODAY AS THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRES OVER WESTERN OREGON MOVES FURTHER
INLAND...RESULTING IN WIND GUSTS RISING INTO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE
FROM LATE TODAY INTO SUN. SEAS WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY N TO NW
WIND WAVES AND FRESH SWELL...KEEPING SEAS STEEP AND AT TIMES
NECESSITATING AN ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAINLY DURING LATE
AFTERNOON TO OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS BY LATE SUN AND MON...ALLOWING A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO MOVE S INTO THE WATERS LATE MON. SYSTEM LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH
TO ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD
     RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON
     CASCADE FOOTHILLS-EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST
     RANGE-MT. HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE CREST-NORTH
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE-
     WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST-WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS
     IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-COAST
     RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON
     CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

WA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CLARK COUNTY
     LOWLANDS-EAST WILLAPA HILLS-EXTREME SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR I-5 CORRIDOR IN
     COWLITZ COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL

     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
NM.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 311912
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1212 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Dry and hot weather will persist for the next several days. High
temperatures in the 90s to near 105 will be common through the
beginning of next week. A gradual cooling trend will take place by
mid week. A more dramatic change to the hot pattern is possible by
the middle of next week with an increasing threat of thunderstorms
each day from Monday through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today: No big changes to the fcst, with very hot wx
continuing under our strong upper ridge. The heat advsy remains in
effect for today. We`ll be focusing on the potential for gusty
winds near the Cascades for Saturday... then dealing with the
cool-down and thunder chances for next week resulting from a weak
cool front passage.bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected over the TAF sites for at
least the next 24 hours. Smoke is possible across the northern
Cascades as the current fire near Lake Chelan gets more
active...but is not expected to reduce vsbys at KEAT tonight if
any inversion sets up.bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        99  64  97  65  97  67 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  97  59  96  59  97  60 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        98  57  97  56  95  59 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Lewiston      105  68 104  66 103  70 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Colville      100  57  98  59 100  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      95  51  93  53  93  55 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        96  59  95  58  97  57 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Moses Lake    103  60 101  62 100  66 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee     101  69  99  70  99  72 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Omak          103  61 101  63 100  64 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Saturday for Lewiston Area.

WA... Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Saturday for Lower Garfield
and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 311912
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1212 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Dry and hot weather will persist for the next several days. High
temperatures in the 90s to near 105 will be common through the
beginning of next week. A gradual cooling trend will take place by
mid week. A more dramatic change to the hot pattern is possible by
the middle of next week with an increasing threat of thunderstorms
each day from Monday through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today: No big changes to the fcst, with very hot wx
continuing under our strong upper ridge. The heat advsy remains in
effect for today. We`ll be focusing on the potential for gusty
winds near the Cascades for Saturday... then dealing with the
cool-down and thunder chances for next week resulting from a weak
cool front passage.bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected over the TAF sites for at
least the next 24 hours. Smoke is possible across the northern
Cascades as the current fire near Lake Chelan gets more
active...but is not expected to reduce vsbys at KEAT tonight if
any inversion sets up.bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        99  64  97  65  97  67 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  97  59  96  59  97  60 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        98  57  97  56  95  59 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Lewiston      105  68 104  66 103  70 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Colville      100  57  98  59 100  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      95  51  93  53  93  55 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        96  59  95  58  97  57 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Moses Lake    103  60 101  62 100  66 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee     101  69  99  70  99  72 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Omak          103  61 101  63 100  64 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Saturday for Lewiston Area.

WA... Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Saturday for Lower Garfield
and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




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