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000
FXUS66 KOTX 230549
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1048 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
An active and wet spring weather pattern can be expected across
the Inland Northwest. Showery conditions and breezy winds will
continue this evening and return on Wednesday. Some short-lived
valley snow is possible early Wednesday morning. The next Pacific
storm will bring rain on Thursday, with more showery conditions
Friday and into the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: The region is currently under the influence of
a cool upper-level trof with several embedded disturbances. One
midlevel wave and its associated shower activity is about to
depart Nrn ID while a second is crossing onto the WA Coast.
Between these features, skies are clearing. With dewpoints in the
20`s for much of the Basin, East Slopes, and lower ID Panhandle
temperatures will cool rather quickly until clouds spread in from
the west once again. This will support the idea of lowering snow
levels that have been advertised with the last few days. The one
caveat is across far NE WA and Nrn ID Panhandle where showers from
this afternoon/evening have moistened surface dewpoints into the
upper 30`s. While snow levels will still be low, overnight lows
will not be as cold as expected and the sheltered valleys could
likely see patchy fog.

Otherwise...showers will begin crossing the Cascades after
06z (11PM)...cross into the Columbia Basin 10-11z (3-4AM)...and
track toward the WA/ID border 12-14Z (5AM-7AM). Wetbulb zero
heights on the coolest model (NAM) are around 2000-2500 mainly
east of a line from Waterville to Ritzville to Lewiston which
which will bring the potential for light snow showers at locations
like Spokane...Pullman...CDA...Deary...and St Maries. The highest
threat for a quick burst of light snow will focus across
southeastern WA and the lower ID Panhandle mainly south of a line
from Sandpoint to Spokane to Ritzville where the best dynamics
will track. This is supported by recent model trends as well. This
will give locations above 2200` in the Blue Mtns and Palouse the
best chance for up to an inch of snow. As the showers move into
the ID Panhandle shortly after, snow will still be the dominate
p-type above 2200` but the increasing sun angle will lower the
threat for accumulating snow below 3000`. Locations north of Hwy 2
could see very little precipitation from the second wave. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...06z TAFS: An upper-level trof is currently anchored
over the region. There is a break in the precipitation at this
time but clouds/showers will begin crossing the Cascades
btwn 6z-9z...spreading toward the ID/WA border 13-15z. The
heaviest pcpn with this feature looks to focus across SE WA and
the lower ID Panhandle. Snow will be possible down to 2000` but
most accumulations will focus at elevations of 2500-3000` and
higher. Showers will carry the potential for MVFR cigs and any
intense snow shower could brielfy lead to IFR conditions.  Any
snow should have a hard time accumulating on area runways. Snow
levels will rise above all terminals aft 17z with breezy winds and
sct -shra through 23z. A small break arnd 00z will be followed by
lower cigs and incr -ra chances aft 03z as another moist warm
front lifts into the region. /sb


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        34  51  39  54  39  55 /  10  60  20 100  40  40
Coeur d`Alene  33  50  38  53  38  55 /  10  60  20 100  70  50
Pullman        34  50  41  54  40  54 /  20  60  40 100  40  60
Lewiston       38  56  45  59  45  59 /  20  50  30 100  50  60
Colville       35  57  35  56  37  62 /  20  50  10 100  40  30
Sandpoint      32  49  36  50  38  55 /  60  60  30 100  70  50
Kellogg        33  45  36  50  37  55 /  20  70  40 100  70  70
Moses Lake     39  61  44  65  39  63 /  20  20  50  60  10  20
Wenatchee      42  60  45  63  42  62 /  20  20  60  60  20  20
Omak           37  59  39  59  37  63 /  20  20  20  90  20  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 230423
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
922 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
An active and wet spring weather pattern can be expected across
the Inland Northwest. Showery conditions and breezy winds will
continue this evening and return on Wednesday. Some short-lived
valley snow is possible early Wednesday morning. The next Pacific
storm will bring rain on Thursday, with more showery conditions
Friday and into the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: The region is currently under the influence of
a cool upper-level trof with several embedded disturbances. One
midlevel wave and its associated shower activity is about to
depart Nrn ID while a second is crossing onto the WA Coast.
Between these features, skies are clearing. With dewpoints in the
20`s for much of the Basin, East Slopes, and lower ID Panhandle
temperatures will cool rather quickly until clouds spread in from
the west once again. This will support the idea of lowering snow
levels that have been advertised with the last few days. The one
caveat is across far NE WA and Nrn ID Panhandle where showers from
this afternoon/evening have moistened surface dewpoints into the
upper 30`s. While snow levels will still be low, overnight lows
will not be as cold as expected and the sheltered valleys could
likely see patchy fog.

Otherwise...showers will begin crossing the Cascades after
06z (11PM)...cross into the Columbia Basin 10-11z (3-4AM)...and
track toward the WA/ID border 12-14Z (5AM-7AM). Wetbulb zero
heights on the coolest model (NAM) are around 2000-2500 mainly
east of a line from Waterville to Ritzville to Lewiston which
which will bring the potential for light snow showers at locations
like Spokane...Pullman...CDA...Deary...and St Maries. The highest
threat for a quick burst of light snow will focus across
southeastern WA and the lower ID Panhandle mainly south of a line
from Sandpoint to Spokane to Ritzville where the best dynamics
will track. This is supported by recent model trends as well. This
will give locations above 2200` in the Blue Mtns and Palouse the
best chance for up to an inch of snow. As the showers move into
the ID Panhandle shortly after, snow will still be the dominate
p-type above 2200` but the increasing sun angle will lower the
threat for accumulating snow below 3000`. Locations north of Hwy 2
could see very little precipitation from the second wave. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...00z TAFS: A trof has become established over the
region. Two main features within this trof will deliver rounds of
scattered showers to the area. One will track from the Cascades
to N Idaho btwn 00-04z with a second 09-18z. Each will bring the
potential for MVFR cigs and light rain or snow showers. P-type at
GEG/COE/PUW carries low confidence and opted to stick with wx
types inherited with continued support from the 18z NAM guidance
for this p-type. Any snow should have a hard time accumulating on
area runways. In addition, winds will remain elevated through the
night...becoming breezy once again aft 18z. /sb.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        34  51  39  54  39  55 /  10  60  20 100  40  40
Coeur d`Alene  33  50  38  53  38  55 /  10  60  20 100  70  50
Pullman        34  50  41  54  40  54 /  20  60  40 100  40  60
Lewiston       38  56  45  59  45  59 /  20  50  30 100  50  60
Colville       35  57  35  56  37  62 /  20  50  10 100  40  30
Sandpoint      32  49  36  50  38  55 /  60  60  30 100  70  50
Kellogg        33  45  36  50  37  55 /  20  70  40 100  70  70
Moses Lake     39  61  44  65  39  63 /  20  20  50  60  10  20
Wenatchee      42  60  45  63  42  62 /  20  20  60  60  20  20
Omak           37  59  39  59  37  63 /  20  20  20  90  20  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




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000
FXUS66 KSEW 230401
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT INLAND THURSDAY
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS. A THIRD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS WILL BE NUMEROUS THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER
SHORT WAVE MOVES ONSHORE. THEY WILL PROBABLY TAPER A BIT AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

AFTER A BIT OF A BREAK FOR THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO WILL MOVE ONSHORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING FOR A PERIOD OF RAIN ALL AREAS.

THURSDAY WILL SEE SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOIST AND SOMEWHAT
UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOUTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL BE
PRETTY STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SOME BREEZY WINDS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY FOR
A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MOST OF THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FAR TO
THE SOUTH AND SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY AND NOT TOO ORGANIZED. THERE
SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IN BETWEEN SHOWERS. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
PAC NW WILL LEAD TO A FEW MORE SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN WA ON
SATURDAY. OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INLAND SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR A WETTER PERIOD OF WEATHER. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT - SHOWERS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE COAST
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.

ANOTHER PAC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION MON OR MON NIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PAC NW ON TUE FOR DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING REMAINS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE EXCEPTION IS THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF
THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE NEAR OSO WHERE A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THIS RIVER AS A
RESULT OF WATER POOLED BEHIND THE DEBRIS DAM THAT PARTIALLY BLOCKS
THE RIVER.

A FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY COULD GIVE 1.00 INCH OF
RAIN. IF THIS OCCURS...THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER IN
THE SLIDE AREA WILL SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT RISES THAN WHAT ARE
CURRENTLY INDICATED IN THE RIVER FORECASTS.

AT 8 PM...THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH NEAR ARLINGTON WAS AT
4.7 FT...OR 2880 CFS. THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER NEAR
OSO WAS AT 216.7 FT AT 2050 CFS. THE POOL EAST OF THE SLIDE WAS
282.7 FT AT 6 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WRN
WA TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN ANOTHER TROUGH ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT. MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS...DECREASING LATE TONIGHT...INCREASING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A MIX OF VFR AND 2-4K FT MVFR CEILINGS.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.

KSEA...CIGS VARIABLE BUT GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT 2-3K FT CIGS WITH
SHOWERS THROUGH 12. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-12 KT...EASING TO 4-8 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS
TONIGHT. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 5 AM PDT AND
INCLUDES ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT. WINDS SHOULD EASE
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EVENING
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING THURSDAY. THIS ONE LOOKS STRONGER
SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER MOST WATERS.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE ABOUT SATURDAY. DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
     STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT CENTRAL STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION PLEASE SEE
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML   (ALL LOWERCASE)








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000
FXUS66 KPQR 230332
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
831 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MORE WET WEATHER AHEAD FOR THIS WEEK.  SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST...KEEPING
A THREAT FOR RAIN GOING INTO WED. THERE WILL BE SNOW
DOWN TO THE CASCADE PASS LEVELS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.A MORE
ROBUST SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST
LATER WED INTO THU. ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WASHINGTON COAST. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ONSHORE
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM APPROACHING
WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW JUST ABOUT TO CROSS 140W. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE MORE RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND BREEZY COASTAL WINDS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EVENING FORECAST AND
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COOL UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE DAYTIME HEATING AND A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
AIR MASS INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY.  THERE WERE A FEW
REPORTS OF PEA SIZED HAIL ON THE COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CURRENT
RADAR SHOWING SOME SMALL CELLS WITH 50DBZ ECHOES...SO WILL ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING.

DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT AND WED MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP WITH THE APPROACHING RIDGE
ALOFT. BEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FOUND BETWEEN 285K AND 290K
ISENTROPIC SURFACES FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL WED EVENING. THIS
COUPLED WITH RATHER GENEROUS QPF FORECASTS IN ALL THE MODELS GIVES
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN WED. DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL THU MORNING...AS LIFTING MECHANISM SWITCHES
TO DYNAMICS GENERATED BY A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE THU
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP POPS CATEGORICAL THROUGH THU. MODELS SHOW A
FAIRLY DEEP LOW APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND THU MORNING. MODELS
VARY SOME ON THE POSITION BUT NOT BY MUCH. THE LOWEST CENTRAL
PRESSURE RANGES FROM 989MB TO 995MB. EITHER WAY THE FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BRING FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST...AND
IT COULD BE BREEZY INLAND AS WELL ON THU.  SHOWERS LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONT THU AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER TROUGH DIGS IN TOWARDS
THE COAST.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW CASCADE PASSES INTO WED...POSSIBLY INTO
WED EVENING...BEFORE WARMER AIR PUSHES IN WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU.
OROGRAPHICS ARE NOT GREAT LIKE A WINTER TIME STORM...BUT MODEL QPF
COMBINED WITH MODERATE OROGRAPHICS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE
ABOUT 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET FOR TONIGHT AND WED.
MODELS GENERALLY FOCUS OF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS NORTH OF MOUNT
JEFFERSON INTO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE A SNOW ADVISORY
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND WED.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND
FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND
IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START
NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...BUT RECENT TRENDS IN MODELS
GIVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS A MORE ORGANIZED
BAND/FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. STILL MAY SEE SOME SMALL HAIL IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND AS STEADIER RAIN INCREASES TONIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS
OR EVEN LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING ONSHORE INTO WEDNESDAY AS
SUBSEQUENT WAVES OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH...AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE...POSSIBLY PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS A MORE
ORGANIZED BAND OR A FRONT OF SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH CIGS AROUND 2500-3500 FT. A
MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR CONTINUES WEDNESDAY. PT/27

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A 1000 MB LOW OUT NEAR 48N 130W MOVES TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS AND STALLS NEAR THE COAST. A
TRAILING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LOW END GALE FORCE WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KT LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVE.
THEN A STRONGER LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 993 MB AS IT HEADS TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR MORE GALE FORCE
WINDS BEFORE THE LOW WEAKENS ALONG THE COAST AGAIN LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER RATHER STRONG PACIFIC FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE HIGH END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY OR POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS AGAIN.

SEAS WILL HOVER AROUND 10 TO 12 FT STARTING TONIGHT WITH THE
FIRST LOW...AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. SEAS MAY POSSIBLY
EVEN CLIMB ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO WITH THE SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN
     OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO
     FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 230332
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
831 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MORE WET WEATHER AHEAD FOR THIS WEEK.  SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST...KEEPING
A THREAT FOR RAIN GOING INTO WED. THERE WILL BE SNOW
DOWN TO THE CASCADE PASS LEVELS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.A MORE
ROBUST SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST
LATER WED INTO THU. ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WASHINGTON COAST. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ONSHORE
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM APPROACHING
WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW JUST ABOUT TO CROSS 140W. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE MORE RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND BREEZY COASTAL WINDS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EVENING FORECAST AND
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COOL UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE DAYTIME HEATING AND A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
AIR MASS INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY.  THERE WERE A FEW
REPORTS OF PEA SIZED HAIL ON THE COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CURRENT
RADAR SHOWING SOME SMALL CELLS WITH 50DBZ ECHOES...SO WILL ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING.

DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT AND WED MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP WITH THE APPROACHING RIDGE
ALOFT. BEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FOUND BETWEEN 285K AND 290K
ISENTROPIC SURFACES FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL WED EVENING. THIS
COUPLED WITH RATHER GENEROUS QPF FORECASTS IN ALL THE MODELS GIVES
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN WED. DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL THU MORNING...AS LIFTING MECHANISM SWITCHES
TO DYNAMICS GENERATED BY A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE THU
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP POPS CATEGORICAL THROUGH THU. MODELS SHOW A
FAIRLY DEEP LOW APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND THU MORNING. MODELS
VARY SOME ON THE POSITION BUT NOT BY MUCH. THE LOWEST CENTRAL
PRESSURE RANGES FROM 989MB TO 995MB. EITHER WAY THE FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BRING FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST...AND
IT COULD BE BREEZY INLAND AS WELL ON THU.  SHOWERS LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONT THU AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER TROUGH DIGS IN TOWARDS
THE COAST.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW CASCADE PASSES INTO WED...POSSIBLY INTO
WED EVENING...BEFORE WARMER AIR PUSHES IN WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU.
OROGRAPHICS ARE NOT GREAT LIKE A WINTER TIME STORM...BUT MODEL QPF
COMBINED WITH MODERATE OROGRAPHICS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE
ABOUT 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET FOR TONIGHT AND WED.
MODELS GENERALLY FOCUS OF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS NORTH OF MOUNT
JEFFERSON INTO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE A SNOW ADVISORY
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND WED.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND
FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND
IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START
NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...BUT RECENT TRENDS IN MODELS
GIVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS A MORE ORGANIZED
BAND/FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. STILL MAY SEE SOME SMALL HAIL IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND AS STEADIER RAIN INCREASES TONIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS
OR EVEN LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING ONSHORE INTO WEDNESDAY AS
SUBSEQUENT WAVES OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH...AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE...POSSIBLY PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS A MORE
ORGANIZED BAND OR A FRONT OF SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH CIGS AROUND 2500-3500 FT. A
MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR CONTINUES WEDNESDAY. PT/27

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A 1000 MB LOW OUT NEAR 48N 130W MOVES TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS AND STALLS NEAR THE COAST. A
TRAILING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LOW END GALE FORCE WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KT LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVE.
THEN A STRONGER LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 993 MB AS IT HEADS TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR MORE GALE FORCE
WINDS BEFORE THE LOW WEAKENS ALONG THE COAST AGAIN LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER RATHER STRONG PACIFIC FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE HIGH END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY OR POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS AGAIN.

SEAS WILL HOVER AROUND 10 TO 12 FT STARTING TONIGHT WITH THE
FIRST LOW...AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. SEAS MAY POSSIBLY
EVEN CLIMB ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO WITH THE SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN
     OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO
     FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 230332
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
831 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MORE WET WEATHER AHEAD FOR THIS WEEK.  SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST...KEEPING
A THREAT FOR RAIN GOING INTO WED. THERE WILL BE SNOW
DOWN TO THE CASCADE PASS LEVELS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.A MORE
ROBUST SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST
LATER WED INTO THU. ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WASHINGTON COAST. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ONSHORE
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM APPROACHING
WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW JUST ABOUT TO CROSS 140W. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE MORE RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND BREEZY COASTAL WINDS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EVENING FORECAST AND
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COOL UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE DAYTIME HEATING AND A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
AIR MASS INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY.  THERE WERE A FEW
REPORTS OF PEA SIZED HAIL ON THE COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CURRENT
RADAR SHOWING SOME SMALL CELLS WITH 50DBZ ECHOES...SO WILL ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING.

DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT AND WED MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP WITH THE APPROACHING RIDGE
ALOFT. BEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FOUND BETWEEN 285K AND 290K
ISENTROPIC SURFACES FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL WED EVENING. THIS
COUPLED WITH RATHER GENEROUS QPF FORECASTS IN ALL THE MODELS GIVES
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN WED. DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL THU MORNING...AS LIFTING MECHANISM SWITCHES
TO DYNAMICS GENERATED BY A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE THU
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP POPS CATEGORICAL THROUGH THU. MODELS SHOW A
FAIRLY DEEP LOW APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND THU MORNING. MODELS
VARY SOME ON THE POSITION BUT NOT BY MUCH. THE LOWEST CENTRAL
PRESSURE RANGES FROM 989MB TO 995MB. EITHER WAY THE FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BRING FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST...AND
IT COULD BE BREEZY INLAND AS WELL ON THU.  SHOWERS LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONT THU AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER TROUGH DIGS IN TOWARDS
THE COAST.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW CASCADE PASSES INTO WED...POSSIBLY INTO
WED EVENING...BEFORE WARMER AIR PUSHES IN WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU.
OROGRAPHICS ARE NOT GREAT LIKE A WINTER TIME STORM...BUT MODEL QPF
COMBINED WITH MODERATE OROGRAPHICS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE
ABOUT 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET FOR TONIGHT AND WED.
MODELS GENERALLY FOCUS OF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS NORTH OF MOUNT
JEFFERSON INTO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE A SNOW ADVISORY
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND WED.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND
FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND
IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START
NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...BUT RECENT TRENDS IN MODELS
GIVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS A MORE ORGANIZED
BAND/FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. STILL MAY SEE SOME SMALL HAIL IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND AS STEADIER RAIN INCREASES TONIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS
OR EVEN LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING ONSHORE INTO WEDNESDAY AS
SUBSEQUENT WAVES OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH...AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE...POSSIBLY PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS A MORE
ORGANIZED BAND OR A FRONT OF SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH CIGS AROUND 2500-3500 FT. A
MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR CONTINUES WEDNESDAY. PT/27

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A 1000 MB LOW OUT NEAR 48N 130W MOVES TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS AND STALLS NEAR THE COAST. A
TRAILING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LOW END GALE FORCE WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KT LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVE.
THEN A STRONGER LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 993 MB AS IT HEADS TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR MORE GALE FORCE
WINDS BEFORE THE LOW WEAKENS ALONG THE COAST AGAIN LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER RATHER STRONG PACIFIC FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE HIGH END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY OR POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS AGAIN.

SEAS WILL HOVER AROUND 10 TO 12 FT STARTING TONIGHT WITH THE
FIRST LOW...AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. SEAS MAY POSSIBLY
EVEN CLIMB ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO WITH THE SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN
     OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO
     FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KOTX 222349
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
448 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
An active and wet spring weather pattern can be expected across
the Inland Northwest. Showery conditions and breezy winds will
continue this evening and return on Wednesday. Some short-lived
valley snow is possible early Wednesday morning. The next Pacific
storm will bring rain on Thursday, with more showery conditions
Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday: In the wake of slowly departing cold front,
the rain and high mountain snow will decrease this evening across
the northern mountains. An upper level trough will pivot over the
region tonight as an 100+ kt upper level jet slides out of north
Idaho and into Montana. Anticipate a brief break in the weather
late this evening with some partial clearing. But it will be short
lived as the next weather system, a secondary shortwave off the
coast of Vancouver Island, will sheer inland overnight. This
secondary shortwave will cross Cascades by 12z and stretch to
north Idaho and weaken by 18z. The GFS seems more robust initially
with this feature, but both the NAM and GFS weaken it
significantly during the morning hours. The track of this feature
is not clear as the NAM takes a more northern track across
Canadian border, the GFS goes across central Washington, while the
ECMWF is right in between. The sensible weather is similar with
increasing clouds overnight and bands of showers developing during
the early morning hours. Given overnight low temperatures in the
low to mid 30s and snow levels down to 2-3k ft, could see some low
elevation snow showers Wednesday morning especially across extreme
eastern Washington and into north Idaho. Snow amounts are expected
to be light, but heavier showers could produce a short lived
intense snow or rain. Snow levels jump into the mountains by
midday and afternoon with valley rain and mountain snow as
instability increase with daytime heating. West to southwest winds
will increase Wednesday afternoon especially across the Columbia
Basin and Palouse with gusts to 30 mph. The winds and showers will
taper off quickly early Wednesday evening. Unseasonably cool
conditions will continue. /rfox.

Wednesday night through Friday...Satellite imagery near 150W
depicts a baroclinic leaf structure which will impact the forecast
area on Thursday. A very brief relatively dry period Wednesday
evening will give way to increasing chances of precipitation from
west to east as this system approaches the region. Model agreement
between the GFS and ECMWF is good regarding the character and
timing of this next wet storm. Initially manifesting itself as a
warm front which will be fed by a pacific moisture feed...a
negatively tilted short wave pushing the system along will nose
into the forecast area late in the day and decrease stability with
the cold air aloft moving over the warm front scoured low level
air mass.

What this portends is a round of widespread light stratiform rain
over just about all of the forecast area during the morning
hours..and into the afternoon over the far eastern and northern
zones...followed by showery conditions in the afternoon which may
be punctuated by thunderstorms on an axis defined from the north
Cascades to Colville and south to Lewiston. High temperatures will
be heavily impacted by precipitation and probably somewhat below
normal.

The deep parent trough (spawned from which will be the negatively
tilted minor shortwave) will then approach the coast keeping the
forecast area under the moist east flank baroclinic
region...setting the stage for a sustained period of frequent
showers over the eastern zones through Thursday night and Friday
in which the deep basin and Cascades lee zones will probably
experience less areal coverage but none-the-less still at risk for
showers. Temperatures on Friday under southerly flow aloft ahead
of this deep trough and with a more hit-and-miss shower regime
will probably climb to a few degrees warmer than Thursday...but at
best barely to seasonal averages and probably only in the deep
basin at that. /Fugazzi

Friday night through Tuesday...The region will be under the
influence of an upper level trough through the weekend. Two
distinct shortwaves, separated by a very brief shortwave ridge,
will bring a chance of showers to the Inland Northwest. The first
wave will transit the area Friday night into Saturday. Not much of
a break Saturday night before the next trough on Sunday. The
greater convective instability will be Sunday afternoon and
evening. Isolated thunderstorms may develop across the northeast
zones but confidence is not high enough for a mention in the
weather grids. Abundant cloud cover and showers will keep daytime
temperatures below seasonal normals.

For the start of the work week the 12z GFS is showing a much
flatter ridge than the ECMWF. The GFS solution would allow a deep
plume of moisture to slide over the region. While the more
amplified 00Z EC shunts this to our north with drier and warmer
conditions on tap, the new 12Z run is trending toward the wetter
GFS. Neither model has been stellar in run to run consistency so
will keep low chance PoPs in for Sunday night and Monday, then
continue to dry out the forecast for Monday night and Tuesday as
models are in better agreement in ridge building over the forecast
area. The ridge would lead to temperatures trending to the warm
side of climo. /Kelch

&&

..AVIATION...00z TAFS: A trof has become established over the
region. Two main features within this trof will deliver rounds of
scattered showers to the area. One will track from the Cascades
to N Idaho btwn 00-04z with a second 09-18z. Each will bring the
potential for MVFR cigs and light rain or snow showers. P-type at
GEG/COE/PUW carries low confidence and opted to stick with wx
types inherited with continued support from the 18z NAM guidance
for this p-type. Any snow should have a hard time accumulating on
area runways. In addition, winds will remain elevated through the
night...becoming breezy once again aft 18z. /sb.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        33  51  39  54  39  55 /  20  60  20 100  40  40
Coeur d`Alene  32  50  38  53  38  55 /  40  60  20 100  70  50
Pullman        34  50  41  54  40  54 /  20  60  40 100  40  60
Lewiston       38  56  45  59  45  59 /  20  50  30 100  50  60
Colville       32  57  35  56  37  62 /  30  60  10 100  40  30
Sandpoint      32  49  36  50  38  55 /  50  60  30 100  70  50
Kellogg        32  45  36  50  37  55 /  90  70  40 100  70  70
Moses Lake     39  61  44  65  39  63 /  20  20  50  60  10  20
Wenatchee      42  60  45  63  42  62 /  20  20  60  60  20  20
Omak           33  59  39  59  37  63 /  20  20  20  90  20  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 222229
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING
SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN NORTH
INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT INLAND THURSDAY MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE REGION CONTINUES TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE INLAND.
THE FRONT IS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS RIGHT NOW WITH SHOWERS REACHING
THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN SPREADING INTO THE INTERIOR BY
MIDNIGHT. WE MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER LATE WED MORNING
AND AFTERNOON...THEN MORE RAIN TOWARD THE EVENING AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES IN. MODELS SHOW RAIN SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND THURSDAY MORNING FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
MORE SHOWERS. A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL LIKELY FORM THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES. EXPECT A FEW
MORE SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES
WESTERN WA. 33

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW WILL LEAD TO A
FEW MORE SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN WA ON SATURDAY. OUR NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR A WETTER PERIOD OF
WEATHER. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
- SHOWERS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.

ANOTHER PAC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION MON OR MON NIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PAC NW ON TUE FOR DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING REMAINS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE EXCEPTION IS THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF
THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE NEAR OSO WHERE A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THIS RIVER AS A
RESULT OF WATER POOLED BEHIND THE DEBRIS DAM THAT PARTIALLY BLOCKS
THE RIVER.

A FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY COULD GIVE 1.00 INCH OF
RAIN. IF THIS OCCURS...THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER IN
THE SLIDE AREA WILL SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT RISES THAN WHAT ARE
CURRENTLY INDICATED IN THE RIVER FORECASTS.

AT 3 PM...THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH NEAR ARLINGTON WAS AT
4.8 FT...OR 3130 CFS. THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER NEAR
OSO WAS AT 216.7 FT AT 2120 CFS. THE SLIDE POOL EAST OF THE SLIDE
WAS AT 282.9 FT 1130 AM THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS WEAKLY UNSTABLE AND MOIST WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FRONT LIKE FEATURE JUST REACHING
THE COAST WITH WEAK CONVECTION CELLS OVER THE LAND.

THE FORECAST IS FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...THEN MORE
STEADY RAIN WILL OCCUR AS THE FRONT MOVES BY. RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME A
MIX OF VFR AND 2-4K FT MVFR CEILINGS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BEGINNING AROUND 03Z. WEDNESDAY SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME HOURS OF 3-4K FT CEILINGS 03Z-09Z.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-14G20 KT WILL TAPER AFTER 06Z. CHB

&&

.MARINE...SCATTERED CONVECTION COUPLED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT
BROUGHT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MOST WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE
CENTRAL STRAIT. IN GENERAL THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE ADVISORIES SET TO EXPIRE AT 11 PM.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY. THIS ONE LOOKS STRONGER SO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER MOST WATERS.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE ABOUT SATURDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
     STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT CENTRAL STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION PLEASE SEE
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML   (ALL LOWERCASE)






000
FXUS66 KPQR 222151
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
204 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MORE WET WEATHER AHEAD FOR THIS WEEK.  SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
COAST...KEEPING A THREAT FOR RAIN GOING INTO WED. THERE WILL BE SNOW
DOWN TO THE CASCADE PASS LEVELS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  A MORE
ROBUST SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST
LATER WED INTO THU. ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A COOL UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE DAYTIME HEATING AND A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR
MASS INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY.  THERE WERE A FEW
REPORTS OF PEA SIZED HAIL ON THE COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CURRENT
RADAR SHOWING SOME SMALL CELLS WITH 50DBZ ECHOES...SO WILL ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING.

DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT AND WED MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP WITH THE APPROACHING RIDGE
ALOFT. BEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FOUND BETWEEN 285K AND 290K
ISENTROPIC SURFACES FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL WED EVENING. THIS
COUPLED WITH RATHER GENEROUS QPF FORECASTS IN ALL THE MODELS GIVES
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN WED. DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL THU MORNING...AS LIFTING MECHANISM SWITCHES
TO DYNAMICS GENERATED BY A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE THU
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP POPS CATEGORICAL THROUGH THU. MODELS SHOW A
FAIRLY DEEP LOW APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND THU MORNING. MODELS
VARY SOME ON THE POSITION BUT NOT BY MUCH. THE LOWEST CENTRAL
PRESSURE RANGES FROM 989MB TO 995MB. EITHER WAY THE FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BRING FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST...AND
IT COULD BE BREEZY INLAND AS WELL ON THU.  SHOWERS LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONT THU AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER TROUGH DIGS IN TOWARDS
THE COAST.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW CASCADE PASSES INTO WED...POSSIBLY INTO
WED EVENING...BEFORE WARMER AIR PUSHES IN WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU.
OROGRAPHICS ARE NOT GREAT LIKE A WINTER TIME STORM...BUT MODEL QPF
COMBINED WITH MODERATE OROGRAPHICS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE
ABOUT 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET FOR TONIGHT AND WED.
MODELS GENERALLY FOCUS OF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS NORTH OF MOUNT
JEFFERSON INTO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE A SNOW ADVISORY
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND WED.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A
BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE
SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL
QUITE A WAY OUT...BUT RECENT TRENDS IN MODELS GIVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...THOUGH SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS OR EVEN LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THE NEXT
MORE ORGANIZED BAND OR FRONT WILL SPREAD STEADIER RAIN TO THE
COAST BY 00Z AND INLAND IN THE EVENING HOURS...AND SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THAT BAND. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SPREADING ONSHORE THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS SUBSEQUENT WAVES OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH...AND OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY. A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OR A FRONT OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY LINGERING UNTIL JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THAT WILL GIVE A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT A MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS
CONTINUE. PT
&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS HAVE RISEN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS A 1001 MB LOW OUT NEAR 48N 130W MOVES TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND
THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS AND STALLS NEAR THE COAST. A TRAILING
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LOW END GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE WATERS
LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVE. THEN A STRONGER
LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 993 MB AS IT HEADS TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR MORE GALE FORCE WINDS BEFORE THE
LOW WEAKENS ALONG THE COAST AGAIN LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER RATHER STRONG PACIFIC FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR
POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS AGAIN.

SEAS ARE FINALLY FELL TO NEAR 9 FT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL RISE
BACK TO AROUND 10 TO 12 FT TONIGHT WITH THE FIRST LOW...THEN
HOVER IN THAT RANGE...POSSIBLY EVEN CLIMB ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO WITH
THE SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 222151
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
204 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MORE WET WEATHER AHEAD FOR THIS WEEK.  SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
COAST...KEEPING A THREAT FOR RAIN GOING INTO WED. THERE WILL BE SNOW
DOWN TO THE CASCADE PASS LEVELS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  A MORE
ROBUST SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST
LATER WED INTO THU. ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A COOL UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE DAYTIME HEATING AND A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR
MASS INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY.  THERE WERE A FEW
REPORTS OF PEA SIZED HAIL ON THE COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CURRENT
RADAR SHOWING SOME SMALL CELLS WITH 50DBZ ECHOES...SO WILL ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING.

DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT AND WED MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP WITH THE APPROACHING RIDGE
ALOFT. BEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FOUND BETWEEN 285K AND 290K
ISENTROPIC SURFACES FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL WED EVENING. THIS
COUPLED WITH RATHER GENEROUS QPF FORECASTS IN ALL THE MODELS GIVES
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN WED. DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL THU MORNING...AS LIFTING MECHANISM SWITCHES
TO DYNAMICS GENERATED BY A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE THU
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP POPS CATEGORICAL THROUGH THU. MODELS SHOW A
FAIRLY DEEP LOW APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND THU MORNING. MODELS
VARY SOME ON THE POSITION BUT NOT BY MUCH. THE LOWEST CENTRAL
PRESSURE RANGES FROM 989MB TO 995MB. EITHER WAY THE FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BRING FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST...AND
IT COULD BE BREEZY INLAND AS WELL ON THU.  SHOWERS LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONT THU AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER TROUGH DIGS IN TOWARDS
THE COAST.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW CASCADE PASSES INTO WED...POSSIBLY INTO
WED EVENING...BEFORE WARMER AIR PUSHES IN WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU.
OROGRAPHICS ARE NOT GREAT LIKE A WINTER TIME STORM...BUT MODEL QPF
COMBINED WITH MODERATE OROGRAPHICS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE
ABOUT 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET FOR TONIGHT AND WED.
MODELS GENERALLY FOCUS OF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS NORTH OF MOUNT
JEFFERSON INTO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE A SNOW ADVISORY
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND WED.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A
BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE
SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL
QUITE A WAY OUT...BUT RECENT TRENDS IN MODELS GIVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...THOUGH SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS OR EVEN LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THE NEXT
MORE ORGANIZED BAND OR FRONT WILL SPREAD STEADIER RAIN TO THE
COAST BY 00Z AND INLAND IN THE EVENING HOURS...AND SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THAT BAND. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SPREADING ONSHORE THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS SUBSEQUENT WAVES OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH...AND OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY. A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OR A FRONT OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY LINGERING UNTIL JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THAT WILL GIVE A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT A MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS
CONTINUE. PT
&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS HAVE RISEN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS A 1001 MB LOW OUT NEAR 48N 130W MOVES TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND
THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS AND STALLS NEAR THE COAST. A TRAILING
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LOW END GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE WATERS
LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVE. THEN A STRONGER
LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 993 MB AS IT HEADS TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR MORE GALE FORCE WINDS BEFORE THE
LOW WEAKENS ALONG THE COAST AGAIN LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER RATHER STRONG PACIFIC FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR
POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS AGAIN.

SEAS ARE FINALLY FELL TO NEAR 9 FT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL RISE
BACK TO AROUND 10 TO 12 FT TONIGHT WITH THE FIRST LOW...THEN
HOVER IN THAT RANGE...POSSIBLY EVEN CLIMB ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO WITH
THE SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 222151
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
204 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MORE WET WEATHER AHEAD FOR THIS WEEK.  SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
COAST...KEEPING A THREAT FOR RAIN GOING INTO WED. THERE WILL BE SNOW
DOWN TO THE CASCADE PASS LEVELS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  A MORE
ROBUST SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST
LATER WED INTO THU. ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A COOL UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE DAYTIME HEATING AND A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR
MASS INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY.  THERE WERE A FEW
REPORTS OF PEA SIZED HAIL ON THE COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CURRENT
RADAR SHOWING SOME SMALL CELLS WITH 50DBZ ECHOES...SO WILL ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING.

DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT AND WED MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP WITH THE APPROACHING RIDGE
ALOFT. BEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FOUND BETWEEN 285K AND 290K
ISENTROPIC SURFACES FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL WED EVENING. THIS
COUPLED WITH RATHER GENEROUS QPF FORECASTS IN ALL THE MODELS GIVES
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN WED. DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL THU MORNING...AS LIFTING MECHANISM SWITCHES
TO DYNAMICS GENERATED BY A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE THU
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP POPS CATEGORICAL THROUGH THU. MODELS SHOW A
FAIRLY DEEP LOW APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND THU MORNING. MODELS
VARY SOME ON THE POSITION BUT NOT BY MUCH. THE LOWEST CENTRAL
PRESSURE RANGES FROM 989MB TO 995MB. EITHER WAY THE FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BRING FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST...AND
IT COULD BE BREEZY INLAND AS WELL ON THU.  SHOWERS LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONT THU AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER TROUGH DIGS IN TOWARDS
THE COAST.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW CASCADE PASSES INTO WED...POSSIBLY INTO
WED EVENING...BEFORE WARMER AIR PUSHES IN WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU.
OROGRAPHICS ARE NOT GREAT LIKE A WINTER TIME STORM...BUT MODEL QPF
COMBINED WITH MODERATE OROGRAPHICS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE
ABOUT 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET FOR TONIGHT AND WED.
MODELS GENERALLY FOCUS OF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS NORTH OF MOUNT
JEFFERSON INTO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE A SNOW ADVISORY
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND WED.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A
BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE
SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL
QUITE A WAY OUT...BUT RECENT TRENDS IN MODELS GIVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...THOUGH SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS OR EVEN LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THE NEXT
MORE ORGANIZED BAND OR FRONT WILL SPREAD STEADIER RAIN TO THE
COAST BY 00Z AND INLAND IN THE EVENING HOURS...AND SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THAT BAND. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SPREADING ONSHORE THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS SUBSEQUENT WAVES OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH...AND OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY. A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OR A FRONT OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY LINGERING UNTIL JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THAT WILL GIVE A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT A MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS
CONTINUE. PT
&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS HAVE RISEN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS A 1001 MB LOW OUT NEAR 48N 130W MOVES TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND
THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS AND STALLS NEAR THE COAST. A TRAILING
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LOW END GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE WATERS
LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVE. THEN A STRONGER
LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 993 MB AS IT HEADS TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR MORE GALE FORCE WINDS BEFORE THE
LOW WEAKENS ALONG THE COAST AGAIN LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER RATHER STRONG PACIFIC FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR
POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS AGAIN.

SEAS ARE FINALLY FELL TO NEAR 9 FT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL RISE
BACK TO AROUND 10 TO 12 FT TONIGHT WITH THE FIRST LOW...THEN
HOVER IN THAT RANGE...POSSIBLY EVEN CLIMB ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO WITH
THE SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 222151
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
204 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MORE WET WEATHER AHEAD FOR THIS WEEK.  SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
COAST...KEEPING A THREAT FOR RAIN GOING INTO WED. THERE WILL BE SNOW
DOWN TO THE CASCADE PASS LEVELS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  A MORE
ROBUST SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST
LATER WED INTO THU. ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A COOL UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE DAYTIME HEATING AND A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR
MASS INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY.  THERE WERE A FEW
REPORTS OF PEA SIZED HAIL ON THE COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CURRENT
RADAR SHOWING SOME SMALL CELLS WITH 50DBZ ECHOES...SO WILL ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING.

DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT AND WED MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP WITH THE APPROACHING RIDGE
ALOFT. BEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FOUND BETWEEN 285K AND 290K
ISENTROPIC SURFACES FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL WED EVENING. THIS
COUPLED WITH RATHER GENEROUS QPF FORECASTS IN ALL THE MODELS GIVES
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN WED. DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL THU MORNING...AS LIFTING MECHANISM SWITCHES
TO DYNAMICS GENERATED BY A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE THU
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP POPS CATEGORICAL THROUGH THU. MODELS SHOW A
FAIRLY DEEP LOW APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND THU MORNING. MODELS
VARY SOME ON THE POSITION BUT NOT BY MUCH. THE LOWEST CENTRAL
PRESSURE RANGES FROM 989MB TO 995MB. EITHER WAY THE FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BRING FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST...AND
IT COULD BE BREEZY INLAND AS WELL ON THU.  SHOWERS LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONT THU AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER TROUGH DIGS IN TOWARDS
THE COAST.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW CASCADE PASSES INTO WED...POSSIBLY INTO
WED EVENING...BEFORE WARMER AIR PUSHES IN WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU.
OROGRAPHICS ARE NOT GREAT LIKE A WINTER TIME STORM...BUT MODEL QPF
COMBINED WITH MODERATE OROGRAPHICS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE
ABOUT 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET FOR TONIGHT AND WED.
MODELS GENERALLY FOCUS OF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS NORTH OF MOUNT
JEFFERSON INTO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE A SNOW ADVISORY
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND WED.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A
BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE
SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL
QUITE A WAY OUT...BUT RECENT TRENDS IN MODELS GIVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...THOUGH SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS OR EVEN LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THE NEXT
MORE ORGANIZED BAND OR FRONT WILL SPREAD STEADIER RAIN TO THE
COAST BY 00Z AND INLAND IN THE EVENING HOURS...AND SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THAT BAND. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SPREADING ONSHORE THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS SUBSEQUENT WAVES OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH...AND OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY. A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OR A FRONT OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY LINGERING UNTIL JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THAT WILL GIVE A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT A MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS
CONTINUE. PT
&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS HAVE RISEN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS A 1001 MB LOW OUT NEAR 48N 130W MOVES TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND
THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS AND STALLS NEAR THE COAST. A TRAILING
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LOW END GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE WATERS
LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVE. THEN A STRONGER
LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 993 MB AS IT HEADS TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR MORE GALE FORCE WINDS BEFORE THE
LOW WEAKENS ALONG THE COAST AGAIN LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER RATHER STRONG PACIFIC FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR
POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS AGAIN.

SEAS ARE FINALLY FELL TO NEAR 9 FT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL RISE
BACK TO AROUND 10 TO 12 FT TONIGHT WITH THE FIRST LOW...THEN
HOVER IN THAT RANGE...POSSIBLY EVEN CLIMB ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO WITH
THE SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KOTX 222123
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
223 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
An active and wet spring weather pattern can be expected across
the Inland Northwest. Showery conditions and breezy winds will
continue this evening and return on Wednesday. Some short-lived
valley snow is possible early Wednesday morning. The next Pacific
storm will bring rain on Thursday, with more showery conditions
Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday: In the wake of slowly departing cold front,
the rain and high mountain snow will decrease this evening across
the northern mountains. An upper level trough will pivot over the
region tonight as an 100+ kt upper level jet slides out of north
Idaho and into Montana. Anticipate a brief break in the weather
late this evening with some partial clearing. But it will be short
lived as the next weather system, a secondary shortwave off the
coast of Vancouver Island, will sheer inland overnight. This
secondary shortwave will cross Cascades by 12z and stretch to
north Idaho and weaken by 18z. The GFS seems more robust initially
with this feature, but both the NAM and GFS weaken it
significantly during the morning hours. The track of this feature
is not clear as the NAM takes a more northern track across
Canadian border, the GFS goes across central Washington, while the
ECMWF is right in between. The sensible weather is similar with
increasing clouds overnight and bands of showers developing during
the early morning hours. Given overnight low temperatures in the
low to mid 30s and snow levels down to 2-3k ft, could see some low
elevation snow showers Wednesday morning especially across extreme
eastern Washington and into north Idaho. Snow amounts are expected
to be light, but heavier showers could produce a short lived
intense snow or rain. Snow levels jump into the mountains by
midday and afternoon with valley rain and mountain snow as
instability increase with daytime heating. West to southwest winds
will increase Wednesday afternoon especially across the Columbia
Basin and Palouse with gusts to 30 mph. The winds and showers will
taper off quickly early Wednesday evening. Unseasonably cool
conditions will continue. /rfox.

Wednesday night through Friday...Satellite imagery near 150W
depicts a baroclinic leaf structure which will impact the forecast
area on Thursday. A very brief relatively dry period Wednesday
evening will give way to increasing chances of precipitation from
west to east as this system approaches the region. Model agreement
between the GFS and ECMWF is good regarding the character and
timing of this next wet storm. Initially manifesting itself as a
warm front which will be fed by a pacific moisture feed...a
negatively tilted short wave pushing the system along will nose
into the forecast area late in the day and decrease stability with
the cold air aloft moving over the warm front scoured low level
air mass.

What this portends is a round of widespread light stratiform rain
over just about all of the forecast area during the morning
hours..and into the afternoon over the far eastern and northern
zones...followed by showery conditions in the afternoon which may
be punctuated by thunderstorms on an axis defined from the north
Cascades to Colville and south to Lewiston. High temperatures will
be heavily impacted by precipitation and probably somewhat below
normal.

The deep parent trough (spawned from which will be the negatively
tilted minor shortwave) will then approach the coast keeping the
forecast area under the moist east flank baroclinic
region...setting the stage for a sustained period of frequent
showers over the eastern zones through Thursday night and Friday
in which the deep basin and Cascades lee zones will probably
experience less areal coverage but none-the-less still at risk for
showers. Temperatures on Friday under southerly flow aloft ahead
of this deep trough and with a more hit-and-miss shower regime
will probably climb to a few degrees warmer than Thursday...but at
best barely to seasonal averages and probably only in the deep
basin at that. /Fugazzi

Friday night through Tuesday...The region will be under the
influence of an upper level trough through the weekend. Two
distinct shortwaves, separated by a very brief shortwave ridge,
will bring a chance of showers to the Inland Northwest. The first
wave will transit the area Friday night into Saturday. Not much of
a break Saturday night before the next trough on Sunday. The
greater convective instability will be Sunday afternoon and
evening. Isolated thunderstorms may develop across the northeast
zones but confidence is not high enough for a mention in the
weather grids. Abundant cloud cover and showers will keep daytime
temperatures below seasonal normals.

For the start of the work week the 12z GFS is showing a much
flatter ridge than the ECMWF. The GFS solution would allow a deep
plume of moisture to slide over the region. While the more
amplified 00Z EC shunts this to our north with drier and warmer
conditions on tap, the new 12Z run is trending toward the wetter
GFS. Neither model has been stellar in run to run consistency so
will keep low chance PoPs in for Sunday night and Monday, then
continue to dry out the forecast for Monday night and Tuesday as
models are in better agreement in ridge building over the forecast
area. The ridge would lead to temperatures trending to the warm
side of climo. /Kelch

&&

..AVIATION... 18z TAFS: The cold front will continue to slowly
lift out of the region this afternoon. The main rain band will be
from the KGEG area into the northern mountains toward KSZT with
areas of MVFR cigs and mountains obscured. Showery conditions
will be found from KCOE and south to KLWS with a gradual CIGS
improvements this afternoon. Showers will be ending from KEAT to
KMWH, but winds will be on the increase with gusts to 25-35kt, and
reaching the KPUW area. The showers and winds will taper off after
03z, followed by a brief clearing. A secondary shortwave will
move through the region by 12z with a return of MVFR cigs and
light rain or snow showers. The showers will be short lived and
decrease from the west after 15z. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        33  51  39  54  39  55 /  20  60  20 100  40  40
Coeur d`Alene  32  50  38  53  38  55 /  40  60  20 100  70  50
Pullman        34  50  41  54  40  54 /  20  60  40 100  40  60
Lewiston       38  56  45  59  45  59 /  20  50  30 100  50  60
Colville       32  57  35  56  37  62 /  30  60  10 100  40  30
Sandpoint      32  49  36  50  38  55 /  50  60  30 100  70  50
Kellogg        32  45  36  50  37  55 /  90  70  40 100  70  70
Moses Lake     39  61  44  65  39  63 /  20  20  50  60  10  20
Wenatchee      42  60  45  63  42  62 /  20  20  60  60  20  20
Omak           33  59  39  59  37  63 /  20  20  20  90  20  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 221740 AAB
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1040 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
An active and wet spring weather pattern can be expected across
the Inland Northwest. A cold front will bring a good chance of
rain and high mountain snow today followed by breezy winds.
Scattered showers will fall on Wednesday. Another Pacific storm
will bring rain on Thursday, with more showery conditions Friday
and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Made a few adjustments to the forecast. The cold front is slowly
pivoting through eastern Washington with radar indicating the best
rain rates have shifted north and west of Spokane, from Wilbur to
Chewelah and Sandpoint. The front will continue lifting northeast
during the day. Meanwhile surface pressure gradients are
increasing across the central Cascades and gusty winds have
developed in the lower Basin. Anticipate the best wind gusts to
stretch from Wenatchee to the Moses Lake area and into the western
Palouse. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler than yesterday,
while snow levels tumble. Fresh snow was spotted on the web cam at
Sherman pass this morning and this trend will continue through the
day. /rfox.

&&

.AVATION...
18z TAFS: The cold front will continue to slowly lift out of the
region this afternoon. The main rain band will be from the KGEG
area into the northern mountains toward KSZT with areas of MVFR
cigs and mountains obscurred. Showery conditions will be found
from KCOE and south to KLWS with a gradual CIGS improvements this
afternoon. Showers will be ending from KEAT to KMWH, but winds
will be on the increase with gusts to 25-35kt, and reaching the
KPUW area. The showers and winds will taper off after 03z,
followed by a brief clearing. A secondary shortwve will move
through the region by 12z with a return of MVFR cigs and light
rain or snow showers. The showers will be short lived and decrease
from the west after 15z. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  34  50  40  53  39 /  90  20  60  20  90  60
Coeur d`Alene  52  33  50  39  52  38 /  90  40  60  20  90  70
Pullman        51  35  51  42  52  40 /  90  20  60  30  90  60
Lewiston       57  39  56  46  58  44 /  90  20  60  40  80  60
Colville       58  32  58  36  57  39 /  90  30  40  10  90  40
Sandpoint      54  33  49  37  51  40 /  90  50  60  20  90  60
Kellogg        52  32  46  37  49  38 / 100  90  70  40  80  60
Moses Lake     60  39  62  44  64  38 /  80  20  10  40  50  10
Wenatchee      59  42  60  45  62  41 /  80  20  20  50  50  10
Omak           58  34  61  39  60  37 /  80  20  20  20  90  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 221733
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1033 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE AND WET SPRING WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE INLAND NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW TODAY FOLLOWED BY BREEZY WINDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL FALL ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM
WILL BRING RAIN ON THURSDAY, WITH MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY
PIVOTING THROUGH EASTERN WASHINGTON WITH RADAR INDICATING THE BEST
RAIN RATES HAVE SHIFTED NORTH AND WEST OF SPOKANE, FROM WILBUR TO
CHEWELAH AND SANDPOINT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE
INCREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CASCADES AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE LOWER BASIN. ANTICIPATE THE BEST WIND GUSTS TO
STRETCH FROM WENATCHEE TO THE MOSES LAKE AREA AND INTO THE WESTERN
PALOUSE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY,
WHILE SNOW LEVELS TUMBLE. FRESH SNOW WAS SPOTTED ON THE WEB CAM AT
SHERMAN PASS THIS MORNING AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. /RFOX.

&&

.AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT
OUT OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN RAIN BAND WILL BE FROM
THE KGEG AREA INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TOWARD KSZT WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURRED. SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL BE FROUND
FROM KCOE TO KPUW TO KLWS WITH GRADUAL IMPROVING CIGS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING FROM KEAT TO KMWH BUT WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS, ALONG WITH KPUW. THE
SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER 03Z, FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF
CLEARING. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY 12Z
WITH A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. THE
SHOWERS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND DECREASE FROM THE WEST AFTER 15Z.
/RFOX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        51  34  50  40  53  39 /  90  20  60  20  90  60
COEUR D`ALENE  52  33  50  39  52  38 /  90  40  60  20  90  70
PULLMAN        51  35  51  42  52  40 /  90  20  60  30  90  60
LEWISTON       57  39  56  46  58  44 /  90  20  60  40  80  60
COLVILLE       58  32  58  36  57  39 /  90  30  40  10  90  40
SANDPOINT      54  33  49  37  51  40 /  90  50  60  20  90  60
KELLOGG        52  32  46  37  49  38 / 100  90  70  40  80  60
MOSES LAKE     60  39  62  44  64  38 /  80  20  10  40  50  10
WENATCHEE      59  42  60  45  62  41 /  80  20  20  50  50  10
OMAK           58  34  61  39  60  37 /  80  20  20  20  90  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 221642
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
941 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
An active and wet spring weather pattern can be expected across
the Inland Northwest. A cold front will bring a good chance of
rain and high mountain snow today followed by breezy winds.
Scattered showers will fall on Wednesday. Another Pacific storm
will bring rain on Thursday, with more showery conditions Friday
and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Made a few adjustments to the forecast. The cold front is slowly
pivoting through eastern Washington with radar indicating the best
rain rates have shifted north and west of Spokane, from Wilbur to
Chewelah and Sandpoint. The front will continue lifting northeast
during the day. Meanwhile surface pressure gradients are
increasing across the central Cascades and gusty winds have
developed in the lower Basin. Anticipate the best wind gusts to
stretch from Wenatchee to the Moses Lake area and into the western
Palouse. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler than yesterday,
while snow levels tumble. Fresh snow was spotted on the web cam at
Sherman pass this morning and this trend will continue through the
day. /rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A cold front migrates in today. Precipitation will
continue to expand across the eastern TAF sites this morning and
remain likely at times through the early afternoon (21Z), before
turning showery and retreating toward the mountains between late
afternoon and evening as that cold front passes. It will be
accompanied by areas of MVFR/IFR cigs around GEG to COE and PUW
and local MVFR cigs are possible in LWS through afternoon. There
is a small threat for isolated embedded thunderstorms this
afternoon toward the NE WA/N ID mountains, but the risk at this
hour was too small to include in the official forecast.
Precipitation toward MWH/EAT will be more showery in nature, with
the threat waning this afternoon. Winds increase through the
afternoon, especially between 18-03Z. Wind gusts of 20 to 35 kts
are possible, before abating after dark. The overall shower threat
wanes later this evening, but another disturbance will renew at
least a slight shower threat toward the western Basin overnight.
/J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  34  50  40  53  39 /  90  20  60  20  90  60
Coeur d`Alene  52  33  50  39  52  38 /  90  40  60  20  90  70
Pullman        51  35  51  42  52  40 /  90  20  60  30  90  60
Lewiston       57  39  56  46  58  44 /  90  20  60  40  80  60
Colville       58  32  58  36  57  39 /  90  30  40  10  90  40
Sandpoint      54  33  49  37  51  40 /  90  50  60  20  90  60
Kellogg        52  32  46  37  49  38 / 100  90  70  40  80  60
Moses Lake     60  39  62  44  64  38 /  80  20  10  40  50  10
Wenatchee      59  42  60  45  62  41 /  80  20  20  50  50  10
Omak           58  34  61  39  60  37 /  80  20  20  20  90  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 221624
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
916 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL BRING COOL AND WET
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW TODAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE
COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR RAIN GOING TUE NIGHT INTO WED...THEN
ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A COOL UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW AIR MASS TO
DESTABILIZE AND AS AS A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT AND WED MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP WITH THE APPROACHING RIDGE
ALOFT. BEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FOUND BETWEEN 285K AND 290K
ISENTROPIC SURFACES FROM LATE TUE NIGHT UNTIL WED EVENING. THIS
COUPLED WITH RATHER GENEROUS QPF FORECASTS IN ALL THE MODELS GIVES
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN WED. DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL THU MORNING...AS LIFTING MECHANISM SWITCHES
TO DYNAMICS GENERATED BY A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE THU
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP POPS CATEGORICAL THROUGH THU MORNING.
SHOWERS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT THU AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER
TROUGH DIGS IN TOWARDS THE COAST.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW CASCADE PASSES INTO WED...BEFORE
WARMER AIR PUSHES IN WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU. OROGRAPHICS WOULD
SUGGEST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE BOTH TONIGHT AND WED AT THE
PASSES. OVERNIGHT MODEL RUNS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE
FOCUS OF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS.  THE SOUTH WA CASCADES AND POSSIBLY
THE NORTH OREGON CASCADES NEAR THE MT. HOOD AREA COULD SEE SNOW
ADVISORY AMOUNTS FOR LATER TONIGHT AND WED ABOVE 3500-4000 FT
ELEVATIONS. WILL SEE WHAT THE 12Z ECMWF QPF VALUES AND DECIDE IF AN
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED OR NOT.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY... EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE
REGION DURING THE DAY ON THU...WITH SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND
FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND
IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START
NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...SO IT THERE IS PLENTY OF
REASON NOT TO COMPLETELY BUY IN TO THIS SOLUTION...BUT STARTED TO
TREND THE FCST TOWARD DRIER AND WARMER FOR NEXT MON. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH ONLY
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL SPREAD STEADIER RAIN INTO THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING WITH SUBSEQUENT MVFR REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A DECENT SOUTH TO NORTH PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL MAKE IT TOUGH FOR
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE MUCH LOWER THAN MVFR.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
UNSTABLE UNDER ONSHORE FLOW AND A FEW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...A FRONT
SHOULD SPREAD STEADIER RAIN INTO THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING...WHICH
MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
WEDNESDAY. PT
&&

.MARINE...WEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TURN SOUTHERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TODAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A 1001 MB LOW OUT NEAR 48N 133W MOVES
TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS AND STALLS NEAR THE
COAST. A TRAILING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LOW END GALE FORCE
WINDS TO THE WATERS LATER WED MORNING INTO EARLY WED EVE. THEN A
STRONGER LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 994 MB AS IT HEADS TOWARD VANCOUVER
ISLAND WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR MORE GALE FORCE WINDS BEFORE THE
LOW WEAKENS ALONG THE COAST AGAIN LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER RATHER STRONG PACIFIC FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR
POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS AGAIN.

SEAS ARE STILL HOVERING NEAR 10 FT THIS MORNING...SO AM REISSUING
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUMP UP TO 10 TO 12 FT LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH THE FIRST LOW...THEN HOVER IN THAT RANGE...POSSIBLY
EVEN CLIMB ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO WITH THE SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KPQR 221624
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
916 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL BRING COOL AND WET
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW TODAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE
COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR RAIN GOING TUE NIGHT INTO WED...THEN
ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A COOL UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING.  SHOWERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW AIR MASS TO
DESTABILIZE AND AS AS A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT AND WED MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP WITH THE APPROACHING RIDGE
ALOFT. BEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FOUND BETWEEN 285K AND 290K
ISENTROPIC SURFACES FROM LATE TUE NIGHT UNTIL WED EVENING. THIS
COUPLED WITH RATHER GENEROUS QPF FORECASTS IN ALL THE MODELS GIVES
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN WED. DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL THU MORNING...AS LIFTING MECHANISM SWITCHES
TO DYNAMICS GENERATED BY A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE THU
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP POPS CATEGORICAL THROUGH THU MORNING.
SHOWERS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT THU AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER
TROUGH DIGS IN TOWARDS THE COAST.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW CASCADE PASSES INTO WED...BEFORE
WARMER AIR PUSHES IN WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU. OROGRAPHICS WOULD
SUGGEST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE BOTH TONIGHT AND WED AT THE
PASSES. OVERNIGHT MODEL RUNS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE
FOCUS OF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS.  THE SOUTH WA CASCADES AND POSSIBLY
THE NORTH OREGON CASCADES NEAR THE MT. HOOD AREA COULD SEE SNOW
ADVISORY AMOUNTS FOR LATER TONIGHT AND WED ABOVE 3500-4000 FT
ELEVATIONS. WILL SEE WHAT THE 12Z ECMWF QPF VALUES AND DECIDE IF AN
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED OR NOT.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY... EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE
REGION DURING THE DAY ON THU...WITH SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND
FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND
IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START
NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...SO IT THERE IS PLENTY OF
REASON NOT TO COMPLETELY BUY IN TO THIS SOLUTION...BUT STARTED TO
TREND THE FCST TOWARD DRIER AND WARMER FOR NEXT MON. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH ONLY
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL SPREAD STEADIER RAIN INTO THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING WITH SUBSEQUENT MVFR REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A DECENT SOUTH TO NORTH PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL MAKE IT TOUGH FOR
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE MUCH LOWER THAN MVFR.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
UNSTABLE UNDER ONSHORE FLOW AND A FEW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...A FRONT
SHOULD SPREAD STEADIER RAIN INTO THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING...WHICH
MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
WEDNESDAY. PT
&&

.MARINE...WEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TURN SOUTHERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TODAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A 1001 MB LOW OUT NEAR 48N 133W MOVES
TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS AND STALLS NEAR THE
COAST. A TRAILING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LOW END GALE FORCE
WINDS TO THE WATERS LATER WED MORNING INTO EARLY WED EVE. THEN A
STRONGER LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 994 MB AS IT HEADS TOWARD VANCOUVER
ISLAND WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR MORE GALE FORCE WINDS BEFORE THE
LOW WEAKENS ALONG THE COAST AGAIN LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER RATHER STRONG PACIFIC FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR
POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS AGAIN.

SEAS ARE STILL HOVERING NEAR 10 FT THIS MORNING...SO AM REISSUING
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUMP UP TO 10 TO 12 FT LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH THE FIRST LOW...THEN HOVER IN THAT RANGE...POSSIBLY
EVEN CLIMB ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO WITH THE SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KSEW 221613
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
912 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL KEEP COOL
AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF
WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONGEST
OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH WESTERN WA OVERNIGHT WITH
POST-FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN WA. SHOWERS ARE MAINLY OVER
KING/SNOHOMISH COUNTIES FROM A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE THIS
MORNING. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN ONSHORE TODAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IS COVERAGE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE INLAND. WE MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
WEATHER LATE WED MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN MORE RAIN TOWARD THE
EVENING AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN /RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH/.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE ANOTHER WET PERIOD
OF WEATHER AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...FOLLOWED
BY THE COLD FRONT. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WILL LINGER THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. A SECOND WELL DEFINED FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF
CONTINUING TO HINT AT A DRYING TREND AND A CHANGE TO MORE
RIDGING...WHILE THE GFS40 KEEPS SHOWERS AND ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING REMAINS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE EXCEPTION IS THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF
THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE NEAR OSO WHERE A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THIS RIVER AS A
RESULT OF WATER POOLED BEHIND THE DEBRIS DAM THAT PARTIALLY BLOCKS
THE RIVER.

RAINFALL FROM LAST NIGHTS FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RISES OF 0.5 TO 1 FT ON THE NORTH FORK OF THE
STILLAGUAMISH RIVER TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY COULD GIVE
1-2 INCHES OF RAIN. IF THIS OCCURS...THE NORTH FORK OF THE
STILLAGUAMISH RIVER IN THE SLIDE AREA WILL SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RISES THAN WHAT ARE CURRENTLY INDICATED IN THE RIVER FORECASTS.

AT 9 AM...THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH NEAR ARLINGTON WAS
AT 4.6 FT...OR 2900 CFS. THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER
NEAR OSO WAS AT 216.7 FT AT 2100 CFS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS WEAKLY UNSTABLE AND MOIST WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT OVER THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA WITH CONSIDERABLE CLEARING ELSEWHERE.

THE FORECAST IS FOR SHOWERS DECREASING THIS MORNING THEN INCREASING
AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS OVER CURRENTLY
CLEAR AREAS. CEILINGS ARE NONEXISTENT OR VFR OVER THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR SOME 2.5-3.5K FT CEILINGS FROM
PIERCE COUNTY NORTH. MOST TERMINALS WILL BE VFR BY LATE MORNING.

KSEA...DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. VFR CEILINGS AFTER 18Z. LIGHT WIND
BECOMING S 6-10 KT LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CHB

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT THROUGH
THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT WILL CONTINUE A FEW MORE HOURS THIS
MORNING. AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY. THIS ONE LOOKS STRONGER WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS POSSIBLE OVER MOST WATERS. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
     STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST AND CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION PLEASE SEE
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML   (ALL LOWERCASE)






000
FXUS66 KOTX 221143
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
442 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
An active and wet spring weather pattern can be expected across
the Inland Northwest. A cold front will bring a good chance of
rain today followed by breezy winds. Scattered showers will fall
on Wednesday. Another Pacific storm will bring rain on Thursday,
with more showery conditions Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight: a wet, breezy system moves across the Inland
Northwest. This morning a cold front was pushing into the
Cascades. It`s parent upper trough was moving onto the coastline,
with a 100kt jet streak on its southeast flank. The incoming
front, the diffluence in the LFQ of the jet and embedded impulses
in the southwesterly flow will mean deep-layer lift. Working with
PWATs between 0.50 to 0.75 inches (~150 to 200% of normal) this
will bring rain and higher mountain snow to the region through
this afternoon, before the threat wanes for some tonight.

Snow levels are forecast to be between 4-5kft near the Cascades
to near 6-7kft toward ID this morning. This afternoon and evening
snow levels to between 3.5-5kft this afternoon, before falling to
between 2-3kft overnight into Wednesday morning. Initially this
will mean the potential for light snow accumulations over the
Cascade passes, around Sherman Pass as the day progresses and
toward the Idaho Passes late this evening and overnight. Some may
even reach down to the higher valleys overnight, but by then the
threat of significant precipitation will have ended.

Precisely timing the precipitation will be the trickier part. Yet
thus far the HRRR model has been doing a reasonable approximation
of the near-term precipitation evolution. Following that guidance
and a radar extrapolation, I`m expecting precipitation to continue
moving north through the northern Cascades and Okanogan Valley and
Highlands early this morning. A second area of precipitation is
expected to expand north-northeast across the Upper Columbia Basin
and Blues into Spokane/C`DA area early this morning, then into the
northeastern WA mountains and ID Panhandle toward 15Z (8 AM PDT).
Between late morning and early afternoon, the cold front and upper
trough start to push east of the Cascades, allowing precipitation
to decrease to more widely scattered to isolated showers near the
Cascades and western Basin. Then late this afternoon and early
evening, the front pushes east toward the ID/MT border and the
primary upper trough axis will be on its heels. This will allow
the precipitation focus to back against the Cascades and into the
northeast and eastern mountains, while activity elsewhere becomes
more showery and dissipates into the evening. Overnight a second
shortwave disturbance pushes into the Cascades, renewing the
precipitation threat here and over the western Basin. The best
threat will remain in the Cascades. Further east the shower threat
lingers near the ID/MT border, but otherwise drier weather is
expected until Wednesday morning.

There were some isolated lightning strikes late Monday night into
early Tuesday morning south of our region. Toward midday/afternoon,
models depict some pockets of marginally favorable CAPE/LI values
across northeast WA/ID. However it is nothing really comparable to
the convective instability that was associated with the lightning
I was seeing south of our region last night. So my confidence that
it will result in some thunder in our region is low. So I have
elected to leave thunder out of the forecast for now. This will be
monitored.

The other issue of the day will be winds. As the front and upper
trough sweep in a second low pressure begins to develop east of
the Divide. The resulting tightening gradient and mixing along the
front will allow winds to increase through the late morning and
early afternoon. As for the numbers: sustained winds of of 15-25
mph, with gusts between 25-35 mph will be possible, especially
between about midday to 7 or 8 pm. The gradient slackens some
going into this evening which should allow for a decline in the
overall winds. /J. Cote`

Wed through Sunday: As the cold upper trough moves NE into Wrn
Montana Wed morning, we`ll slowly transition from a highly
convective regime to a more stable pattern under short-wave
ridging. The valleys of the north Idaho Panhandle and NE Wa Wed
morning are still under a threat of snow showers. But most likely
any significant accumulations will be limited to the mountains
above about 3k ft. The wrn end of the trowal structure that wraps
around the upper low nearly stalls across the BC border with Idaho
well into Wed. Lingering rain/snow is the result for the
aforementioned valleys and mtns. A quick- moving short-wave trough
also tracks SE through SE Wa and NE Oregon Wed, increasing the
chances of pcpn as backing winds increase isentropic ascent.
Beginning Wed Nt, a more widespread stratiform pcpn event will
keep high chances of pcpn in the fcst for most zones... especially
Thurs as deep isentropic ascent over an advancing warm front, then
an occluding cold front, moves NE across the region. Warm
advection is sufficient to put much of SE Wa in the warm sector
south of the warm front. Due to the shearing/splitting of the
accompanying upper trough in response to a jet speed max digging
toward northern California Thurs Nt, the occluded front will stall
directly across Ern Wa and N Idaho. This slowly weakening boundary
won`t begin to move out of the area until Sat, leading to a very
cool and showery Fri and Sat. There is also a significant vort max
that moves north into Ern Wa Fri as well, enhancing the prolonged
pcpn threat. Temperatures will remain below normal for most areas,
a result of the numerous short-waves... then the stalling front
Fri through the weekend. bz

Sunday Night through Tuesday: Region looks to be in a transition
period as we finally start to exit the very active and wet period
for more of a dry and much calmer pattern. Beginning Sunday night,
the large scale trough dipping down from the Gulf of Alaska
appears to be held at bay by a building ridge from the south.
Mainly remnant moisture remains which is one reason low chance
POPs were kept through Monday. Also as the ridge continues to
grasp control of the pattern, the jet will pass right over the
region Monday bringing some better dynamics. Both the Euro and
GFS currently agree on the solution of the building ridge allowing
for some confidence. Any notable precip looks to remain on the
west side of the Cascades. Moving into Monday night and Tuesday
the ridge continues to control with lowering chances for precip as
time passes. Changes to the forecast include lowering POPs Monday
night and Tuesday while also lowering winds. As the ridge builds,
we should finally start to see temps climb back to near or
slightly above normal. With this forecast in the far extended
major shifts in the models are still possible, but for now this
period could be a nice break from the active, wet weather noted in
the previous week. /Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A cold front migrates in today. Precipitation will
continue to expand across the eastern TAF sites this morning and
remain likely at times through the early afternoon (21Z), before
turning showery and retreating toward the mountains between late
afternoon and evening as that cold front passes. It will be
accompanied by areas of MVFR/IFR cigs around GEG to COE and PUW
and local MVFR cigs are possible in LWS through afternoon. There
is a small threat for isolated embedded thunderstorms this
afternoon toward the NE WA/N ID mountains, but the risk at this
hour was too small to include in the official forecast.
Precipitation toward MWH/EAT will be more showery in nature, with
the threat waning this afternoon. Winds increase through the
afternoon, especially between 18-03Z. Wind gusts of 20 to 35 kts
are possible, before abating after dark. The overall shower threat
wanes later this evening, but another disturbance will renew at
least a slight shower threat toward the western Basin overnight.
/J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  34  50  40  53  39 /  90  20  60  20  90  60
Coeur d`Alene  52  33  50  39  52  38 /  90  50  60  20  90  70
Pullman        51  35  51  42  52  40 /  90  30  60  30  90  60
Lewiston       57  39  56  46  58  44 /  90  20  60  40  80  60
Colville       58  32  58  36  57  39 /  90  30  40  10  90  40
Sandpoint      54  33  49  37  51  40 /  90  50  60  20  90  60
Kellogg        52  32  46  37  49  38 / 100  90  70  40  80  60
Moses Lake     60  39  62  44  64  38 /  60  20  10  40  50  10
Wenatchee      59  42  60  45  62  41 /  50  20  20  50  50  10
Omak           58  34  61  39  60  37 /  70  20  20  20  90  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 221053
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
350 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL KEEP COOL
AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF
WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONGEST
OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SHIFTING ONSHORE
OVER NIGHT WILL KEEP SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TODAY...WITH THE BEST BET
REMAINING THE CENTRAL SOUND INTO THE CASCADES THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS WITH THE EXPECTED WEAK PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE. SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO SPREAD MORE SHOWERS ONTO THE COAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
AND OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE EVENING.

WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
SHOWERS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA. WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A MORE ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEM
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY LOCAL RAIN AT TIMES ESPECIALLY OVER
THE COAST...OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND THE CASCADES THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...SHOWERS WILL LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA. A SECOND WELL DEFINED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER
ON EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO HINT AT A DRYING
TREND AND A CHANGE TO MORE RIDGING...WHILE THE GFS40 KEEPS SHOWERS
AND ZONAL FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING REMAINS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE EXCEPTION IS THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF
THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE NEAR OSO WHERE A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THIS RIVER AS A
RESULT OF WATER POOLED BEHIND THE DEBRIS DAM THAT PARTIALLY BLOCKS
THE RIVER.

RAINFALL FROM LAST NIGHTS FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RISES OF 0.5 TO 1 FT ON THE NORTH FORK OF THE
STILLAGUAMISH RIVER TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY COULD GIVE
1-2 INCHES OF RAIN. IF THIS OCCURS...THE NORTH FORK OF THE
STILLAGUAMISH RIVER IN THE SLIDE AREA WILL SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RISES THAN WHAT ARE CURRENTLY INDICATED IN THE RIVER FORECASTS.

AT 330 AM...THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH NEAR ARLINGTON WAS
AT 4.4 FT...OR 2587 CFS. THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER
NEAR OSO WAS AT 216.4 FT AT 1803 CFS. THE SLIDE POOL EAST OF THE
SLIDE WAS AT 283 FT AT 630 PM MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD
TONIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT. WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND MOIST WITH SHOWERS...DECREASING THIS MORNING...AND
INCREASING AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR AND PATCHY IFR
CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN IMPROVING TO A VFR CEILING DECK BY
18Z.

KSEA...MVFR CIGS 1500-2500 FEET EARLY AND POSSIBLY IFR 500-900 FEET
AT TIMES THROUGH 15Z. VFR CEILINGS AFTER 18Z. LIGHT WIND BECOMING S
6-10 KT LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DTM

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT THROUGH
THE CENTRAL/E STRAIT REACHING PORTIONS OF THE SRN N INLAND WATERS
AND N PART OF ADMIRALTY INLET...EASING THIS MORNING. ANOTHER
APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING RENEWED SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO THE
COASTAL WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY. THIS ONE LOOKS STRONGER WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS POSSIBLE OVER MOST WATERS. DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
     STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT...
     ADMIRALTY INLET...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS COAST.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION PLEASE SEE
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML   (ALL LOWERCASE)











000
FXUS66 KPQR 221002
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
302 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL BRING COOL AND WET
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW TODAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE
COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR RAIN GOING TUE NIGHT INTO WED...THEN
ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...RAIN CONTINUED OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING AS A BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS SLOWLY PUSHING THROUGH.
WATER VAPOR PICTURES SHOWED A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WAS E OF 130W APPROACHING THE COAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY ON IR
PICTURES WAS ISOLATED E OF 130W...BUT PICKED UP SOME FURTHER W. WILL
KEEP POPS HIGH OVER THE CASCADES THIS MORNING FOR THE DEPARTING
BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT LIMIT POPS FURTHER W TO CHANCE CATEGORY.
DAYTIME WILL ALLOW AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE SOME IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING AS A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.

DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN LATER TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP WITH THE APPROACHING RIDGE
ALOFT. BEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FOUND BETWEEN 285K AND 290K
ISENTROPIC SURFACES FROM LATE TUE NIGHT UNTIL WED EVENING. THIS
COUPLED WITH RATHER GENEROUS QPF FORECASTS IN ALL THE MODELS GIVES
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN WED. DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL THU MORNING...AS LIFTING MECHANISM SWITCHES
TO DYNAMICS GENERATED BY A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE THU
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP POPS CATEGORICAL THROUGH THU MORNING.
SHOWERS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT THU AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER
TROUGH DIGS IN TOWARDS THE COAST.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW CASCADE PASSES INTO WED...BEFORE
WARMER AIR PUSHES IN WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU. OROGRAPHICS WOULD
SUGGEST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE BOTH TUE NIGHT AND WED AT THE
PASSES.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY... EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE
REGION DURING THE DAY ON THU...WITH SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND
FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND
IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START
NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...SO IT THERE IS PLENTY OF
REASON NOT TO COMPLETELY BUY IN TO THIS SOLUTION...BUT STARTED TO
TREND THE FCST TOWARD DRIER AND WARMER FOR NEXT MON. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH ONLY
TEMPORARY HIGH END IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL SPREAD STEADIER RAIN INTO THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING WITH SUBSEQUENT MVFR REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A DECENT SOUTH TO NORTH PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL MAKE IT TOUGH FOR
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE MUCH LOWER THAN MVFR.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...THERE IS A CHANCE A TEMPORARY IFR/MVFR CIG
COULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 800 AND 1500 FT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS
MORNING DUE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING TO MOISTEN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THIS DEVELOPMENT REMAINS
LOW. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...A FRONT SHOULD SPREAD STEADIER RAIN INTO THE
TERMINAL THIS EVENING...WHICH MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...WEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TURN SOUTHERLY TODAY AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CREEPS EASTWARD TOWARDS VANCOUVER ISLAND.
EXPECT GUSTY 2O TO 30 KT WINDS TO DEVELOP SOON THEREAFTER. WINDS
MAY TEMPORARILY SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WEAKEN...BUT WINDS SHOULD PICK UP QUICKLY AROUND DAYBREAK AS
ANOTHER INCOMING FRONT TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. A COASTAL
JET SHOULD ENHANCE WINDS WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS...AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE
COLUMBIA RIVER. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT DUE TO THIS EVENT LIKELY BEING ON THE LOWER END
OF GALE FORCE CRITERIA IF IT HAPPENS...WILL LET THE DAYSHIFT
INGEST ONE MORE ROUND OF MODEL RUNS BEFORE A WATCH OR WARNING IS
HOISTED.

EITHER WAY...WINDS MAY TEMPORARILY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE
ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE BRINGS ANOTHER THREAT
OF LOW END GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN SPREAD INTO THE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY..BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL STORM SYSTEM
BRINGS POTENTIAL GALE FORCE WINDS SATURDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 AM
     THIS MORNING TO 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 10 PM
     THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KPQR 221002
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
302 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL BRING COOL AND WET
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW TODAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE
COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR RAIN GOING TUE NIGHT INTO WED...THEN
ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...RAIN CONTINUED OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING AS A BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS SLOWLY PUSHING THROUGH.
WATER VAPOR PICTURES SHOWED A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WAS E OF 130W APPROACHING THE COAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY ON IR
PICTURES WAS ISOLATED E OF 130W...BUT PICKED UP SOME FURTHER W. WILL
KEEP POPS HIGH OVER THE CASCADES THIS MORNING FOR THE DEPARTING
BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT LIMIT POPS FURTHER W TO CHANCE CATEGORY.
DAYTIME WILL ALLOW AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE SOME IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING AS A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.

DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN LATER TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP WITH THE APPROACHING RIDGE
ALOFT. BEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FOUND BETWEEN 285K AND 290K
ISENTROPIC SURFACES FROM LATE TUE NIGHT UNTIL WED EVENING. THIS
COUPLED WITH RATHER GENEROUS QPF FORECASTS IN ALL THE MODELS GIVES
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN WED. DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL THU MORNING...AS LIFTING MECHANISM SWITCHES
TO DYNAMICS GENERATED BY A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE THU
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP POPS CATEGORICAL THROUGH THU MORNING.
SHOWERS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT THU AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER
TROUGH DIGS IN TOWARDS THE COAST.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW CASCADE PASSES INTO WED...BEFORE
WARMER AIR PUSHES IN WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU. OROGRAPHICS WOULD
SUGGEST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE BOTH TUE NIGHT AND WED AT THE
PASSES.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY... EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE
REGION DURING THE DAY ON THU...WITH SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND
FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND
IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START
NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...SO IT THERE IS PLENTY OF
REASON NOT TO COMPLETELY BUY IN TO THIS SOLUTION...BUT STARTED TO
TREND THE FCST TOWARD DRIER AND WARMER FOR NEXT MON. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH ONLY
TEMPORARY HIGH END IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL SPREAD STEADIER RAIN INTO THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING WITH SUBSEQUENT MVFR REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A DECENT SOUTH TO NORTH PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL MAKE IT TOUGH FOR
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE MUCH LOWER THAN MVFR.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...THERE IS A CHANCE A TEMPORARY IFR/MVFR CIG
COULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 800 AND 1500 FT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS
MORNING DUE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING TO MOISTEN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THIS DEVELOPMENT REMAINS
LOW. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...A FRONT SHOULD SPREAD STEADIER RAIN INTO THE
TERMINAL THIS EVENING...WHICH MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...WEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TURN SOUTHERLY TODAY AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CREEPS EASTWARD TOWARDS VANCOUVER ISLAND.
EXPECT GUSTY 2O TO 30 KT WINDS TO DEVELOP SOON THEREAFTER. WINDS
MAY TEMPORARILY SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WEAKEN...BUT WINDS SHOULD PICK UP QUICKLY AROUND DAYBREAK AS
ANOTHER INCOMING FRONT TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. A COASTAL
JET SHOULD ENHANCE WINDS WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS...AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE
COLUMBIA RIVER. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT DUE TO THIS EVENT LIKELY BEING ON THE LOWER END
OF GALE FORCE CRITERIA IF IT HAPPENS...WILL LET THE DAYSHIFT
INGEST ONE MORE ROUND OF MODEL RUNS BEFORE A WATCH OR WARNING IS
HOISTED.

EITHER WAY...WINDS MAY TEMPORARILY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE
ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE BRINGS ANOTHER THREAT
OF LOW END GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN SPREAD INTO THE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY..BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL STORM SYSTEM
BRINGS POTENTIAL GALE FORCE WINDS SATURDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 AM
     THIS MORNING TO 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 10 PM
     THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KOTX 220945
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
244 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
An active and wet spring weather pattern can be expected across
the Inland Northwest. A cold front will bring a good chance of
rain today followed by breezy winds. Scattered showers will fall
on Wednesday. Another Pacific storm will bring rain on Thursday,
with more showery conditions Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight: a wet, breezy system moves across the Inland
Northwest. This morning a cold front was pushing into the
Cascades. It`s parent upper trough was moving onto the coastline,
with a 100kt jet streak on its southeast flank. The incoming
front, the diffluence in the LFQ of the jet and embedded impulses
in the southwesterly flow will mean deep-layer lift. Working with
PWATs between 0.50 to 0.75 inches (~150 to 200% of normal) this
will bring rain and higher mountain snow to the region through
this afternoon, before the threat wanes for some tonight.

Snow levels are forecast to be between 4-5kft near the Cascades
to near 6-7kft toward ID this morning. This afternoon and evening
snow levels to between 3.5-5kft this afternoon, before falling to
between 2-3kft overnight into Wednesday morning. Initially this
will mean the potential for light snow accumulations over the
Cascade passes, around Sherman Pass as the day progresses and
toward the Idaho Passes late this evening and overnight. Some may
even reach down to the higher valleys overnight, but by then the
threat of significant precipitation will have ended.

Precisely timing the precipitation will be the trickier part. Yet
thus far the HRRR model has been doing a reasonable approximation
of the near-term precipitation evolution. Following that guidance
and a radar extrapolation, I`m expecting precipitation to continue
moving north through the northern Cascades and Okanogan Valley and
Highlands early this morning. A second area of precipitation is
expected to expand north-northeast across the Upper Columbia Basin
and Blues into Spokane/C`DA area early this morning, then into the
northeastern WA mountains and ID Panhandle toward 15Z (8 AM PDT).
Between late morning and early afternoon, the cold front and upper
trough start to push east of the Cascades, allowing precipitation
to decrease to more widely scattered to isolated showers near the
Cascades and western Basin. Then late this afternoon and early
evening, the front pushes east toward the ID/MT border and the
primary upper trough axis will be on its heels. This will allow
the precipitation focus to back against the Cascades and into the
northeast and eastern mountains, while activity elsewhere becomes
more showery and dissipates into the evening. Overnight a second
shortwave disturbance pushes into the Cascades, renewing the
precipitation threat here and over the western Basin. The best
threat will remain in the Cascades. Further east the shower threat
lingers near the ID/MT border, but otherwise drier weather is
expected until Wednesday morning.

There were some isolated lightning strikes late Monday night into
early Tuesday morning south of our region. Toward midday/afternoon,
models depict some pockets of marginally favorable CAPE/LI values
across northeast WA/ID. However it is nothing really comparable to
the convective instability that was associated with the lightning
I was seeing south of our region last night. So my confidence that
it will result in some thunder in our region is low. So I have
elected to leave thunder out of the forecast for now. This will be
monitored.

The other issue of the day will be winds. As the front and upper
trough sweep in a second low pressure begins to develop east of
the Divide. The resulting tightening gradient and mixing along the
front will allow winds to increase through the late morning and
early afternoon. As for the numbers: sustained winds of of 15-25
mph, with gusts between 25-35 mph will be possible, especially
between about midday to 7 or 8 pm. The gradient slackens some
going into this evening which should allow for a decline in the
overall winds. /J. Cote`

Wed through Sunday: As the cold upper trough moves NE into Wrn
Montana Wed morning, we`ll slowly transition from a highly
convective regime to a more stable pattern under short-wave
ridging. The valleys of the north Idaho Panhandle and NE Wa Wed
morning are still under a threat of snow showers. But most likely
any significant accumulations will be limited to the mountains
above about 3k ft. The wrn end of the trowal structure that wraps
around the upper low nearly stalls across the BC border with Idaho
well into Wed. Lingering rain/snow is the result for the
aforementioned valleys and mtns. A quick- moving short-wave trough
also tracks SE through SE Wa and NE Oregon Wed, increasing the
chances of pcpn as backing winds increase isentropic ascent.
Beginning Wed Nt, a more widespread stratiform pcpn event will
keep high chances of pcpn in the fcst for most zones... especially
Thurs as deep isentropic ascent over an advancing warm front, then
an occluding cold front, moves NE across the region. Warm
advection is sufficient to put much of SE Wa in the warm sector
south of the warm front. Due to the shearing/splitting of the
accompanying upper trough in response to a jet speed max digging
toward northern California Thurs Nt, the occluded front will stall
directly across Ern Wa and N Idaho. This slowly weakening boundary
won`t begin to move out of the area until Sat, leading to a very
cool and showery Fri and Sat. There is also a significant vort max
that moves north into Ern Wa Fri as well, enhancing the prolonged
pcpn threat. Temperatures will remain below normal for most areas,
a result of the numerous short-waves... then the stalling front
Fri through the weekend. bz

Sunday Night through Tuesday: Region looks to be in a transition
period as we finally start to exit the very active and wet period
for more of a dry and much calmer pattern. Beginning Sunday night,
the large scale trough dipping down from the Gulf of Alaska
appears to be held at bay by a building ridge from the south.
Mainly remnant moisture remains which is one reason low chance
POPs were kept through Monday. Also as the ridge continues to
grasp control of the pattern, the jet will pass right over the
region Monday bringing some better dynamics. Both the Euro and
GFS currently agree on the solution of the building ridge allowing
for some confidence. Any notable precip looks to remain on the
west side of the Cascades. Moving into Monday night and Tuesday
the ridge continues to control with lowering chances for precip as
time passes. Changes to the forecast include lowering POPs Monday
night and Tuesday while also lowering winds. As the ridge builds,
we should finally start to see temps climb back to near or
slightly above normal. With this forecast in the far extended
major shifts in the models are still possible, but for now this
period could be a nice break from the active, wet weather noted in
the previous week. /Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Precipitation associated with a slow moving cold front
has started at KEAT and KMWH. An area of heavy rain will approach
these terminal sites around 07Z with MVFR cigs possible. The area
of precipitation will move east and bring lowering ceilings and
rain to the eastern TAF sites between 12Z and 18Z Tuesday. Post
frontal winds will shift to the southwest and increase after 17Z
with gusts to 25 kts common. At KEAT downsloping winds will be out
of the northwest with gusts increasing to 35 kts and possibly
higher in the late afternoon Tuesday. Scattered instability showers
will be possible throughout the afternoon in a post frontal air
mass. Winds will diminish after 03Z Wednesday. /EK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  34  50  40  53  39 /  90  20  60  20  90  60
Coeur d`Alene  52  33  50  39  52  38 /  90  50  60  20  90  70
Pullman        51  35  51  42  52  40 /  90  30  60  30  90  60
Lewiston       57  39  56  46  58  44 /  90  20  60  40  80  60
Colville       58  32  58  36  57  39 /  90  30  40  10  90  40
Sandpoint      54  33  49  37  51  40 /  90  50  60  20  90  60
Kellogg        52  32  46  37  49  38 / 100  90  70  40  80  60
Moses Lake     60  39  62  44  64  38 /  60  20  10  40  50  10
Wenatchee      59  42  60  45  62  41 /  50  20  20  50  50  10
Omak           58  34  61  39  60  37 /  70  20  20  20  90  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 220534
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1034 PM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
An active and wet spring weather pattern can be expected across
the Inland Northwest. A cold front will bring a good chance of
rain on Tuesday followed by breezy winds. Scattered showers will
fall on Wednesday. Another Pacific storm will bring rain on
Thursday, with more showery conditions Friday and into the
weekend.




&&

.DISCUSSION...
The cold front and associated precipitation is taking its time
moving east across the Inland Northwest this evening.
Precipitation has been falling along the Cascade crest for the
past couple of hours but the precip shield is just starting to
push in from the southwest, affecting the Wenatchee area and
portions of the lower basin. This will gradually move east
overnight with easternmost WA and north Idaho not seeing showers
until early Tuesday morning. Weather grids were adjusted slightly
to reflect recent trends in radar and surface observations.
/Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Precipitation associated with a slow moving cold front
has started at KEAT and KMWH. An area of heavy rain will approach
these terminal sites around 07Z with MVFR cigs possible. The area
of precipitation will move east and bring lowering ceilings and
rain to the eastern TAF sites between 12Z and 18Z Tuesday. Post
frontal winds will shift to the southwest and increase after 17Z
with gusts to 25 kts common. At KEAT downsloping winds will be out
of the northwest with gusts increasing to 35 kts and possibly
higher in the late afternoon Tuesday. Scattered instability showers
will be possible throughout the afternoon in a post frontal air
mass. Winds will diminish after 03Z Wednesday.  /EK





&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  51  34  50  39  53 /  40  90  30  50  10  80
Coeur d`Alene  43  52  33  50  38  52 /  30  90  50  60  20  80
Pullman        44  52  36  51  41  52 /  20  90  40  50  30  80
Lewiston       48  58  39  56  45  58 /  20  90  30  40  30  70
Colville       39  58  32  58  35  57 /  50  90  40  50  10  80
Sandpoint      39  54  34  49  36  51 /  20  90  80  70  30  70
Kellogg        41  52  33  46  36  49 /  20 100  90  70  40  80
Moses Lake     46  60  38  62  43  64 /  60  60  20  20  20  60
Wenatchee      46  59  41  60  44  62 /  70  60  20  20  20  70
Omak           43  58  34  61  38  60 /  70  70  20  20  10  90

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 220418
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
920 PM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS TONIGHT. A SERIES OF
WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK...KEEPING
THE WEATHER WET AT TIMES. THE WETTEST SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT ONSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE
AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALSO EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWERY WEATHER TUESDAY...BUT
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SPREADING MORE SHOWERS ONTO THE COAST
IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER THE INTERIOR TUESDAY
EVENING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER RELATIVE LULL IN THE SHOWERY WEATHER AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND MOST OF THE
WEATHER IS AIMED SOUTH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE ECMWF HAS SHOWERY WEATHER FURTHER NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND
CURRENT FORECAST LEAN IN THIS DIRECTION.

A MORE ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AT TIMES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE ON A DECREASING TREND AS A COOL UPPER
TROUGH OFFSHORE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. MOST OF THE DYNAMIC FORCING
WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WEAK SYSTEMS EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE COOL AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. A MORE WELL
DEFINED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. LONG TERM MODELS ARE HINTING AT A CHANGE TO MORE
RIDGING EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR GRADUAL DRYING AND WARMING. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE EXCEPTION IS THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF
THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE NEAR OSO WHERE A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THIS RIVER AS A
RESULT OF WATER POOLED BEHIND THE DEBRIS DAM THAT PARTIALLY BLOCKS
THE RIVER.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GIVE ABOUT ONE-HALF INCH OF RAIN
OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LANDSLIDE AREA NEAR OSO.
AFTER RISING 0.5 TO 1 FT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE NORTH FORK OF
THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY FALL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY EVENING AS ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AFFECT THE
AREA. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT COULD GIVE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...THE NORTH FORK OF
THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER IN THE SLIDE AREA WILL SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RISES THAN WHAT ARE CURRENTLY INDICATED IN THE RIVER FORECASTS.

AT 230 PM...THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH NEAR ARLINGTON WAS
AT 4.5 FT...OR 2745 CFS. THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER
NEAR OSO WAS AT 216.4 FT AT 1765 CFS. THE SLIDE POOL EAST OF THE
SLIDE WAS AT 283.2 FT AT 230 PM. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE PAC NW TONIGHT
AND TUE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND OVER WRN WA THIS EVENING WILL
WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES E. WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH
SHOWERS...DECREASING LATER TONIGHT...INCREASING AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY VFR BUT AREAS OF MVFR DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

KSEA...CEILINGS GENERALLY 3-5K FT. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF MVFR 2-3K
CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z. N WIND 4-8 KT. SHOWERS. DTM

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR WESTERLY
SWELL 10 TO 12 FEET CONTINUES TONIGHT FOR THE COAST. MODERATELY
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLY WINDS
20-30 KT WILL CONTINUE IN THE STRAIT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOME
OUTFLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR IN ADMIRALTY
INLET AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
STRENGTH WINDS ARE LIKELY ON THE COAST. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
THURSDAY. THIS ONE LOOKS STRONGER WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH
WINDS POSSIBLE OVER MOST WATERS. DTM/CHB
&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
      STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT...
     ADMIRALTY INLET...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS COASTAL WATERS.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION PLEASE SEE
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML   (ALL LOWERCASE)










000
FXUS66 KOTX 220410
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
910 PM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
An active and wet spring weather pattern can be expected across
the Inland Northwest. A cold front will bring a good chance of
rain on Tuesday followed by breezy winds. Scattered showers will
fall on Wednesday. Another Pacific storm will bring rain on
Thursday, with more showery conditions Friday and into the
weekend.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
The cold front and associated precipitation is taking its time
moving east across the Inland Northwest this evening.
Precipitation has been falling along the Cascade crest for the
past couple of hours but the precip shield is just starting to
push in from the southwest, affecting the Wenatchee area and
portions of the lower basin. This will gradually move east
overnight with easternmost WA and north Idaho not seeing showers
until early Tuesday morning. Weather grids were adjusted slightly
to reflect recent trends in radar and surface observations. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: The region will come under an increasingly moist
southerly flow pattern out ahead of a cold front pushing into
western WA. The main aviation impact for this evening will be
thickening mid to high level cloud cover. Any precip that falls
will be very light. The cold front in western WA will begin to
move into the Cascades this evening. This will increase chances
for rain showers at KEAT with MVFR cigs possible after 06Z. The
area of precipitation will move east and bring lowering ceilings
and rain to the eastern TAF sites between 12Z and 18Z Tuesday.
Post frontal winds will shift to the southwest and increase after
17Z with gusts to 25 kts common. At KEAT downsloping winds will be
out of the northwest with gusts increasing to 35 kts and possibly
higher in the late afternoon Tuesday. /EK




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  51  34  50  39  53 /  40  90  30  50  10  80
Coeur d`Alene  43  52  33  50  38  52 /  30  90  50  60  20  80
Pullman        44  52  36  51  41  52 /  20  90  40  50  30  80
Lewiston       48  58  39  56  45  58 /  20  90  30  40  30  70
Colville       39  58  32  58  35  57 /  50  90  40  50  10  80
Sandpoint      39  54  34  49  36  51 /  20  90  80  70  30  70
Kellogg        41  52  33  46  36  49 /  20 100  90  70  40  80
Moses Lake     46  60  38  62  43  64 /  60  60  20  20  20  60
Wenatchee      46  59  41  60  44  62 /  70  60  20  20  20  70
Omak           43  58  34  61  38  60 /  70  70  20  20  10  90

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 220339
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
838 PM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AND
WETTER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
MOVING ACROSS NW OREGON THIS EVENING AND WILL LINGER OVER THE
CASCADES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO CASCADE PASS LEVELS. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR RAIN GOING INTO
WED...THEN ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AS OF 7 PM...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS COMBINED WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A COLD FRONT IS JUST REACHING THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THERE HAS BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS
EVENING EAST OF THE CASCADES...NEAR THE DALLES...BUT NONE FOR THE
PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE IS BECOMING
MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT`S AXIS NEARS THE COAST...BUT THINK THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL VERY SLIM. SLIM...BUT NOT
IMPOSSIBLE AND AM GOING TO LEAVE THE SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHEN COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL SWING OVER THE AREA.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS INFLUENCING SW FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...AND THE VAD WIND PROFILE FOR KRTX SHOWS SW WINDS FROM 3K
FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE TO 20K ABOVE SURFACE. THE RAIN IS INFLUENCED
BY THIS FLOW AND THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE STREAMING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA.

POST FRONTAL SHOWERS DO NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND RAIN SHOULD LIGHTEN UP BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. COLDER AIR
WILL BE MOVING IN AS WELL AND THE SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN TO THE
CASCADE PASS LEVEL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION MAY STILL
BE HUNG UP OVER THE CASCADES AT THIS TIME WITH SOME BRIEF AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR THE CASCADE PASSES TUESDAY MORNING.
TUE NIGHT INTO WED...DEEP ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS KEEPING MID AND LOW
LEVELS MOIST. WITH UPPER HEIGHTS REBUILDING BEHIND THE TROUGH...WARM
AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN FOR THE LOWER LEVELS. GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST
SOME MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR 290K TUE NIGHT...THEN INCREASE
THE LIFT WED IN PARTICULAR FOR THE NW HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN WITH THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF FOR THE COAST...COAST RANGE AND THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES. WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW FOR THE CASCADE PASSES WED
MORNING BEFORE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION RAISES THE SNOW LEVELS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY... EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE
REGION DURING THE DAY ON THU...WITH SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND
FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND
IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START
NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...SO IT THERE IS PLENTY OF
REASON NOT TO COMPLETELY BUY IN TO THIS SOLUTION...BUT STARTED TO
TREND THE FCST TOWARD DRIER AND WARMER FOR NEXT MON. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT INCREASING MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE MAIN LOWER
LEVEL FRONT PUSHES INLAND TONIGHT...WITH CIGS AROUND 2000-3000 FT
THROUGH TUE MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MIDDAY TUE
ON THE COAST...WHILE CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR BY TUE AFTERNOON.
MTNS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OBSCURED NEXT 24 HRS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500-3000 FT WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN STEADIER RAIN AS THE MAIN FRONT MOVES INLAND.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LIFT TO VFR CIGS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
FEW SHOWERS CONTINUING. PT/27

&&

.MARINE...NW WINDS SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHERN WATERS AND THE
OUTER CENTRAL WATERS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT...
THEN RISE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM WHICH IS
NOW WEST OF VANCOUVER ISLAND MOVES TOWARD THE WASHINGTON AND B.C
COAST THEN MOVES INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A TRAILING
POSSIBLY STRONGER LOW WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.

SEAS 10 TO 12 FT THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY FALL BELOW 10 FEET
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEAS WILL RISE ABOVE 10 FT AGAIN LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FROM THAT NEXT
DISTURBANCE...BRIEFLY FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE RISING ABOVE 10
FT THURSDAY. PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 3 AM
     PDT TUESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 AM TO
     1 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 220339
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
838 PM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AND
WETTER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
MOVING ACROSS NW OREGON THIS EVENING AND WILL LINGER OVER THE
CASCADES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO CASCADE PASS LEVELS. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR RAIN GOING INTO
WED...THEN ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AS OF 7 PM...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS COMBINED WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A COLD FRONT IS JUST REACHING THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THERE HAS BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS
EVENING EAST OF THE CASCADES...NEAR THE DALLES...BUT NONE FOR THE
PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE IS BECOMING
MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT`S AXIS NEARS THE COAST...BUT THINK THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL VERY SLIM. SLIM...BUT NOT
IMPOSSIBLE AND AM GOING TO LEAVE THE SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHEN COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL SWING OVER THE AREA.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS INFLUENCING SW FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...AND THE VAD WIND PROFILE FOR KRTX SHOWS SW WINDS FROM 3K
FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE TO 20K ABOVE SURFACE. THE RAIN IS INFLUENCED
BY THIS FLOW AND THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE STREAMING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA.

POST FRONTAL SHOWERS DO NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND RAIN SHOULD LIGHTEN UP BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. COLDER AIR
WILL BE MOVING IN AS WELL AND THE SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN TO THE
CASCADE PASS LEVEL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION MAY STILL
BE HUNG UP OVER THE CASCADES AT THIS TIME WITH SOME BRIEF AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR THE CASCADE PASSES TUESDAY MORNING.
TUE NIGHT INTO WED...DEEP ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS KEEPING MID AND LOW
LEVELS MOIST. WITH UPPER HEIGHTS REBUILDING BEHIND THE TROUGH...WARM
AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN FOR THE LOWER LEVELS. GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST
SOME MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR 290K TUE NIGHT...THEN INCREASE
THE LIFT WED IN PARTICULAR FOR THE NW HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN WITH THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF FOR THE COAST...COAST RANGE AND THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES. WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW FOR THE CASCADE PASSES WED
MORNING BEFORE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION RAISES THE SNOW LEVELS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY... EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE
REGION DURING THE DAY ON THU...WITH SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND
FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND
IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START
NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...SO IT THERE IS PLENTY OF
REASON NOT TO COMPLETELY BUY IN TO THIS SOLUTION...BUT STARTED TO
TREND THE FCST TOWARD DRIER AND WARMER FOR NEXT MON. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT INCREASING MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE MAIN LOWER
LEVEL FRONT PUSHES INLAND TONIGHT...WITH CIGS AROUND 2000-3000 FT
THROUGH TUE MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MIDDAY TUE
ON THE COAST...WHILE CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR BY TUE AFTERNOON.
MTNS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OBSCURED NEXT 24 HRS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500-3000 FT WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN STEADIER RAIN AS THE MAIN FRONT MOVES INLAND.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LIFT TO VFR CIGS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
FEW SHOWERS CONTINUING. PT/27

&&

.MARINE...NW WINDS SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHERN WATERS AND THE
OUTER CENTRAL WATERS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT...
THEN RISE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM WHICH IS
NOW WEST OF VANCOUVER ISLAND MOVES TOWARD THE WASHINGTON AND B.C
COAST THEN MOVES INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A TRAILING
POSSIBLY STRONGER LOW WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.

SEAS 10 TO 12 FT THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY FALL BELOW 10 FEET
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEAS WILL RISE ABOVE 10 FT AGAIN LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FROM THAT NEXT
DISTURBANCE...BRIEFLY FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE RISING ABOVE 10
FT THURSDAY. PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 3 AM
     PDT TUESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 AM TO
     1 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 220339
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
838 PM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AND
WETTER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
MOVING ACROSS NW OREGON THIS EVENING AND WILL LINGER OVER THE
CASCADES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO CASCADE PASS LEVELS. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR RAIN GOING INTO
WED...THEN ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AS OF 7 PM...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS COMBINED WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A COLD FRONT IS JUST REACHING THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THERE HAS BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS
EVENING EAST OF THE CASCADES...NEAR THE DALLES...BUT NONE FOR THE
PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE IS BECOMING
MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT`S AXIS NEARS THE COAST...BUT THINK THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL VERY SLIM. SLIM...BUT NOT
IMPOSSIBLE AND AM GOING TO LEAVE THE SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHEN COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL SWING OVER THE AREA.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS INFLUENCING SW FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...AND THE VAD WIND PROFILE FOR KRTX SHOWS SW WINDS FROM 3K
FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE TO 20K ABOVE SURFACE. THE RAIN IS INFLUENCED
BY THIS FLOW AND THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE STREAMING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA.

POST FRONTAL SHOWERS DO NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND RAIN SHOULD LIGHTEN UP BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. COLDER AIR
WILL BE MOVING IN AS WELL AND THE SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN TO THE
CASCADE PASS LEVEL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION MAY STILL
BE HUNG UP OVER THE CASCADES AT THIS TIME WITH SOME BRIEF AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR THE CASCADE PASSES TUESDAY MORNING.
TUE NIGHT INTO WED...DEEP ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS KEEPING MID AND LOW
LEVELS MOIST. WITH UPPER HEIGHTS REBUILDING BEHIND THE TROUGH...WARM
AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN FOR THE LOWER LEVELS. GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST
SOME MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR 290K TUE NIGHT...THEN INCREASE
THE LIFT WED IN PARTICULAR FOR THE NW HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN WITH THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF FOR THE COAST...COAST RANGE AND THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES. WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW FOR THE CASCADE PASSES WED
MORNING BEFORE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION RAISES THE SNOW LEVELS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY... EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE
REGION DURING THE DAY ON THU...WITH SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND
FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND
IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START
NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...SO IT THERE IS PLENTY OF
REASON NOT TO COMPLETELY BUY IN TO THIS SOLUTION...BUT STARTED TO
TREND THE FCST TOWARD DRIER AND WARMER FOR NEXT MON. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT INCREASING MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE MAIN LOWER
LEVEL FRONT PUSHES INLAND TONIGHT...WITH CIGS AROUND 2000-3000 FT
THROUGH TUE MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MIDDAY TUE
ON THE COAST...WHILE CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR BY TUE AFTERNOON.
MTNS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OBSCURED NEXT 24 HRS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500-3000 FT WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN STEADIER RAIN AS THE MAIN FRONT MOVES INLAND.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LIFT TO VFR CIGS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
FEW SHOWERS CONTINUING. PT/27

&&

.MARINE...NW WINDS SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHERN WATERS AND THE
OUTER CENTRAL WATERS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT...
THEN RISE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM WHICH IS
NOW WEST OF VANCOUVER ISLAND MOVES TOWARD THE WASHINGTON AND B.C
COAST THEN MOVES INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A TRAILING
POSSIBLY STRONGER LOW WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.

SEAS 10 TO 12 FT THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY FALL BELOW 10 FEET
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEAS WILL RISE ABOVE 10 FT AGAIN LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FROM THAT NEXT
DISTURBANCE...BRIEFLY FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE RISING ABOVE 10
FT THURSDAY. PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 3 AM
     PDT TUESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 AM TO
     1 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 220339
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
838 PM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AND
WETTER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
MOVING ACROSS NW OREGON THIS EVENING AND WILL LINGER OVER THE
CASCADES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO CASCADE PASS LEVELS. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR RAIN GOING INTO
WED...THEN ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AS OF 7 PM...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS COMBINED WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A COLD FRONT IS JUST REACHING THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THERE HAS BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS
EVENING EAST OF THE CASCADES...NEAR THE DALLES...BUT NONE FOR THE
PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE IS BECOMING
MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT`S AXIS NEARS THE COAST...BUT THINK THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL VERY SLIM. SLIM...BUT NOT
IMPOSSIBLE AND AM GOING TO LEAVE THE SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHEN COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL SWING OVER THE AREA.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS INFLUENCING SW FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...AND THE VAD WIND PROFILE FOR KRTX SHOWS SW WINDS FROM 3K
FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE TO 20K ABOVE SURFACE. THE RAIN IS INFLUENCED
BY THIS FLOW AND THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE STREAMING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA.

POST FRONTAL SHOWERS DO NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND RAIN SHOULD LIGHTEN UP BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. COLDER AIR
WILL BE MOVING IN AS WELL AND THE SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN TO THE
CASCADE PASS LEVEL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION MAY STILL
BE HUNG UP OVER THE CASCADES AT THIS TIME WITH SOME BRIEF AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR THE CASCADE PASSES TUESDAY MORNING.
TUE NIGHT INTO WED...DEEP ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS KEEPING MID AND LOW
LEVELS MOIST. WITH UPPER HEIGHTS REBUILDING BEHIND THE TROUGH...WARM
AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN FOR THE LOWER LEVELS. GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST
SOME MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR 290K TUE NIGHT...THEN INCREASE
THE LIFT WED IN PARTICULAR FOR THE NW HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN WITH THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF FOR THE COAST...COAST RANGE AND THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES. WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW FOR THE CASCADE PASSES WED
MORNING BEFORE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION RAISES THE SNOW LEVELS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY... EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE
REGION DURING THE DAY ON THU...WITH SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND
FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND
IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START
NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...SO IT THERE IS PLENTY OF
REASON NOT TO COMPLETELY BUY IN TO THIS SOLUTION...BUT STARTED TO
TREND THE FCST TOWARD DRIER AND WARMER FOR NEXT MON. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT INCREASING MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE MAIN LOWER
LEVEL FRONT PUSHES INLAND TONIGHT...WITH CIGS AROUND 2000-3000 FT
THROUGH TUE MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MIDDAY TUE
ON THE COAST...WHILE CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR BY TUE AFTERNOON.
MTNS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OBSCURED NEXT 24 HRS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500-3000 FT WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN STEADIER RAIN AS THE MAIN FRONT MOVES INLAND.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LIFT TO VFR CIGS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
FEW SHOWERS CONTINUING. PT/27

&&

.MARINE...NW WINDS SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHERN WATERS AND THE
OUTER CENTRAL WATERS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT...
THEN RISE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM WHICH IS
NOW WEST OF VANCOUVER ISLAND MOVES TOWARD THE WASHINGTON AND B.C
COAST THEN MOVES INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A TRAILING
POSSIBLY STRONGER LOW WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.

SEAS 10 TO 12 FT THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY FALL BELOW 10 FEET
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEAS WILL RISE ABOVE 10 FT AGAIN LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FROM THAT NEXT
DISTURBANCE...BRIEFLY FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE RISING ABOVE 10
FT THURSDAY. PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 3 AM
     PDT TUESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 AM TO
     1 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 220043
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
543 PM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AND
WETTER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE NEXT PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHOWERS CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO CASCADE
PASS LEVELS. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT
FOR RAIN GOING INTO WED...THEN ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING
DUE TO A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
THE CURRENT RAIN IS FROM MOISTURE CAUGHT IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY JUST ALONG THE OREGON COAST. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE AREA...OVER NW CALIFORNIA...THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO NW OREGON THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE FRONT IS
PARALLEL TO THE COAST AND SUGGESTS THAT IT MAY SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NW
OREGON THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. THE FRONT  WILL MOVE OVER THE
CASCADES LATE TONIGHT...AND SHOWERS WILL EASE SOME LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

RAIN WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH WITH
COOLEST AIR ALOFT MOVES ACROSS...BRINGING SNOW DOWN 3000 FT
- BELOW CASCADE PASS LEVELS. BUT WITH WEAKENING OROGRAPHICS AND
DECREASING MOISTURE DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
TUE NIGHT INTO WED...DEEP ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS KEEPING MID AND LOW
LEVELS MOIST. WITH UPPER HEIGHTS REBUILDING BEHIND THE TROUGH...WARM
AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN FOR THE LOWER LEVELS. GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST
SOME MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR 290K INSENTROPE TUE
NIGHT...THEN INCREASE THE LIFT WED IN PARTICULAR FOR THE NW HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

THE WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING QUITE MOIST AND HAVE
INCREASED QPF FOR WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW FOR
THE CASCADE PASSES WED MORNING BEFORE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION RAISES
THE SNOW LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... EXPECT COOL AND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
THU...WITH SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE REGION. THERE MAY BE A
BIT OF A BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH
ONSHORE LATE SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND IS NOW TOWARD
BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START NEXT WEEK. IT
IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...SO IT THERE IS PLENTY OF REASON NOT TO
COMPLETELY BUY IN TO THIS SOLUTION...BUT STARTED TO TREND THE FCST
TOWARD DRIER AND WARMER FOR NEXT MON. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. THE MAIN LOWER LEVEL FRONT AND
MAIN PERIOD OF RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTH COAST
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS....THEN MOVE ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST AND WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH 4 OR 5 PM. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS INLAND TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY BUT EXPECT CIGS ESPECIALLY INLAND
TO LIFT TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND...THEN STEADIER RAIN
WITH THE MAIN FRONT WILL MOVE IN MID EVENING OR SO WITH LOWERING
CIGS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LIFT TO VFR CIGS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
SHOWERS CONTINUING. PT

&&

.MARINE...STILL HAVE SOME SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS IN THE INNER
WATER AREA OFF NEWPORT THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL SHIFT TO NW DURING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS NW WINDS SPREAD IN FROM THE
NORTHERN WATERS AND THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
TONIGHT...THEN RISE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM
WHICH IS NOW WEST OF VANCOUVER ISLAND MOVES TOWARD THE WASHINGTON
AND B.C COAST THEN MOVES INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A
TRAILING POSSIBLY STRONGER LOW WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.

SEAS REMAIN 12 TO 13 FT THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
THROUGH TONIGHT...FALLING BELOW 10 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL RISE ABOVE 10 FT AGAIN LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FROM THAT NEXT DISTURBANCE...BRIEFLY FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE RISING ABOVE 10 FT THURSDAY. PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO
     11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO     FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL     3
     AM PDT TUESDAY.
&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KPQR 220043
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
543 PM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AND
WETTER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE NEXT PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHOWERS CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO CASCADE
PASS LEVELS. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT
FOR RAIN GOING INTO WED...THEN ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING
DUE TO A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
THE CURRENT RAIN IS FROM MOISTURE CAUGHT IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY JUST ALONG THE OREGON COAST. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE AREA...OVER NW CALIFORNIA...THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO NW OREGON THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE FRONT IS
PARALLEL TO THE COAST AND SUGGESTS THAT IT MAY SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NW
OREGON THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. THE FRONT  WILL MOVE OVER THE
CASCADES LATE TONIGHT...AND SHOWERS WILL EASE SOME LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

RAIN WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH WITH
COOLEST AIR ALOFT MOVES ACROSS...BRINGING SNOW DOWN 3000 FT
- BELOW CASCADE PASS LEVELS. BUT WITH WEAKENING OROGRAPHICS AND
DECREASING MOISTURE DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
TUE NIGHT INTO WED...DEEP ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS KEEPING MID AND LOW
LEVELS MOIST. WITH UPPER HEIGHTS REBUILDING BEHIND THE TROUGH...WARM
AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN FOR THE LOWER LEVELS. GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST
SOME MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR 290K INSENTROPE TUE
NIGHT...THEN INCREASE THE LIFT WED IN PARTICULAR FOR THE NW HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

THE WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING QUITE MOIST AND HAVE
INCREASED QPF FOR WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW FOR
THE CASCADE PASSES WED MORNING BEFORE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION RAISES
THE SNOW LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... EXPECT COOL AND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
THU...WITH SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE REGION. THERE MAY BE A
BIT OF A BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH
ONSHORE LATE SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND IS NOW TOWARD
BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START NEXT WEEK. IT
IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...SO IT THERE IS PLENTY OF REASON NOT TO
COMPLETELY BUY IN TO THIS SOLUTION...BUT STARTED TO TREND THE FCST
TOWARD DRIER AND WARMER FOR NEXT MON. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. THE MAIN LOWER LEVEL FRONT AND
MAIN PERIOD OF RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTH COAST
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS....THEN MOVE ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST AND WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH 4 OR 5 PM. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS INLAND TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY BUT EXPECT CIGS ESPECIALLY INLAND
TO LIFT TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND...THEN STEADIER RAIN
WITH THE MAIN FRONT WILL MOVE IN MID EVENING OR SO WITH LOWERING
CIGS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LIFT TO VFR CIGS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
SHOWERS CONTINUING. PT

&&

.MARINE...STILL HAVE SOME SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS IN THE INNER
WATER AREA OFF NEWPORT THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL SHIFT TO NW DURING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS NW WINDS SPREAD IN FROM THE
NORTHERN WATERS AND THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
TONIGHT...THEN RISE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM
WHICH IS NOW WEST OF VANCOUVER ISLAND MOVES TOWARD THE WASHINGTON
AND B.C COAST THEN MOVES INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A
TRAILING POSSIBLY STRONGER LOW WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.

SEAS REMAIN 12 TO 13 FT THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
THROUGH TONIGHT...FALLING BELOW 10 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL RISE ABOVE 10 FT AGAIN LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FROM THAT NEXT DISTURBANCE...BRIEFLY FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE RISING ABOVE 10 FT THURSDAY. PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO
     11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO     FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL     3
     AM PDT TUESDAY.
&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KPQR 220043
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
543 PM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AND
WETTER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE NEXT PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHOWERS CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO CASCADE
PASS LEVELS. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT
FOR RAIN GOING INTO WED...THEN ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING
DUE TO A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
THE CURRENT RAIN IS FROM MOISTURE CAUGHT IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY JUST ALONG THE OREGON COAST. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE AREA...OVER NW CALIFORNIA...THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO NW OREGON THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE FRONT IS
PARALLEL TO THE COAST AND SUGGESTS THAT IT MAY SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NW
OREGON THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. THE FRONT  WILL MOVE OVER THE
CASCADES LATE TONIGHT...AND SHOWERS WILL EASE SOME LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

RAIN WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH WITH
COOLEST AIR ALOFT MOVES ACROSS...BRINGING SNOW DOWN 3000 FT
- BELOW CASCADE PASS LEVELS. BUT WITH WEAKENING OROGRAPHICS AND
DECREASING MOISTURE DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
TUE NIGHT INTO WED...DEEP ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS KEEPING MID AND LOW
LEVELS MOIST. WITH UPPER HEIGHTS REBUILDING BEHIND THE TROUGH...WARM
AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN FOR THE LOWER LEVELS. GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST
SOME MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR 290K INSENTROPE TUE
NIGHT...THEN INCREASE THE LIFT WED IN PARTICULAR FOR THE NW HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

THE WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING QUITE MOIST AND HAVE
INCREASED QPF FOR WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW FOR
THE CASCADE PASSES WED MORNING BEFORE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION RAISES
THE SNOW LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... EXPECT COOL AND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
THU...WITH SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE REGION. THERE MAY BE A
BIT OF A BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH
ONSHORE LATE SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND IS NOW TOWARD
BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START NEXT WEEK. IT
IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...SO IT THERE IS PLENTY OF REASON NOT TO
COMPLETELY BUY IN TO THIS SOLUTION...BUT STARTED TO TREND THE FCST
TOWARD DRIER AND WARMER FOR NEXT MON. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. THE MAIN LOWER LEVEL FRONT AND
MAIN PERIOD OF RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTH COAST
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS....THEN MOVE ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST AND WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH 4 OR 5 PM. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS INLAND TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY BUT EXPECT CIGS ESPECIALLY INLAND
TO LIFT TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND...THEN STEADIER RAIN
WITH THE MAIN FRONT WILL MOVE IN MID EVENING OR SO WITH LOWERING
CIGS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LIFT TO VFR CIGS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
SHOWERS CONTINUING. PT

&&

.MARINE...STILL HAVE SOME SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS IN THE INNER
WATER AREA OFF NEWPORT THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL SHIFT TO NW DURING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS NW WINDS SPREAD IN FROM THE
NORTHERN WATERS AND THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
TONIGHT...THEN RISE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM
WHICH IS NOW WEST OF VANCOUVER ISLAND MOVES TOWARD THE WASHINGTON
AND B.C COAST THEN MOVES INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A
TRAILING POSSIBLY STRONGER LOW WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.

SEAS REMAIN 12 TO 13 FT THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
THROUGH TONIGHT...FALLING BELOW 10 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL RISE ABOVE 10 FT AGAIN LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FROM THAT NEXT DISTURBANCE...BRIEFLY FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE RISING ABOVE 10 FT THURSDAY. PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO
     11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO     FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL     3
     AM PDT TUESDAY.
&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KPQR 220043
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
543 PM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AND
WETTER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE NEXT PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHOWERS CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO CASCADE
PASS LEVELS. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT
FOR RAIN GOING INTO WED...THEN ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING
DUE TO A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
THE CURRENT RAIN IS FROM MOISTURE CAUGHT IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY JUST ALONG THE OREGON COAST. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE AREA...OVER NW CALIFORNIA...THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO NW OREGON THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE FRONT IS
PARALLEL TO THE COAST AND SUGGESTS THAT IT MAY SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NW
OREGON THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. THE FRONT  WILL MOVE OVER THE
CASCADES LATE TONIGHT...AND SHOWERS WILL EASE SOME LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

RAIN WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH WITH
COOLEST AIR ALOFT MOVES ACROSS...BRINGING SNOW DOWN 3000 FT
- BELOW CASCADE PASS LEVELS. BUT WITH WEAKENING OROGRAPHICS AND
DECREASING MOISTURE DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
TUE NIGHT INTO WED...DEEP ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS KEEPING MID AND LOW
LEVELS MOIST. WITH UPPER HEIGHTS REBUILDING BEHIND THE TROUGH...WARM
AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN FOR THE LOWER LEVELS. GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST
SOME MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR 290K INSENTROPE TUE
NIGHT...THEN INCREASE THE LIFT WED IN PARTICULAR FOR THE NW HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

THE WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING QUITE MOIST AND HAVE
INCREASED QPF FOR WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW FOR
THE CASCADE PASSES WED MORNING BEFORE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION RAISES
THE SNOW LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... EXPECT COOL AND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
THU...WITH SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE REGION. THERE MAY BE A
BIT OF A BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH
ONSHORE LATE SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND IS NOW TOWARD
BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START NEXT WEEK. IT
IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...SO IT THERE IS PLENTY OF REASON NOT TO
COMPLETELY BUY IN TO THIS SOLUTION...BUT STARTED TO TREND THE FCST
TOWARD DRIER AND WARMER FOR NEXT MON. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. THE MAIN LOWER LEVEL FRONT AND
MAIN PERIOD OF RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTH COAST
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS....THEN MOVE ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST AND WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH 4 OR 5 PM. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS INLAND TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY BUT EXPECT CIGS ESPECIALLY INLAND
TO LIFT TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND...THEN STEADIER RAIN
WITH THE MAIN FRONT WILL MOVE IN MID EVENING OR SO WITH LOWERING
CIGS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LIFT TO VFR CIGS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
SHOWERS CONTINUING. PT

&&

.MARINE...STILL HAVE SOME SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS IN THE INNER
WATER AREA OFF NEWPORT THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL SHIFT TO NW DURING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS NW WINDS SPREAD IN FROM THE
NORTHERN WATERS AND THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
TONIGHT...THEN RISE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM
WHICH IS NOW WEST OF VANCOUVER ISLAND MOVES TOWARD THE WASHINGTON
AND B.C COAST THEN MOVES INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A
TRAILING POSSIBLY STRONGER LOW WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.

SEAS REMAIN 12 TO 13 FT THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
THROUGH TONIGHT...FALLING BELOW 10 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL RISE ABOVE 10 FT AGAIN LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FROM THAT NEXT DISTURBANCE...BRIEFLY FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE RISING ABOVE 10 FT THURSDAY. PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO
     11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO     FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL     3
     AM PDT TUESDAY.
&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KOTX 212332
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
432 PM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
An active and wet spring weather pattern can be expected across
the Inland Northwest. A cold front will be a good chance of rain
on Tuesday followed by breezy winds. Scattered showers will be
found on Wednesday. Then another Pacific storm will bring rain on
Thursday, with more showery conditions Friday and into the
weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday: Active and wet spring weather will be
found across the Inland NW this week as a series of Pacific storms
moving through the region. The models point at the wetter days to
be Tuesday and Thursday, while the subsequent days will see hit
and miss showers. After today`s mild temperatures, readings will
remain cool and below normal for the rest of the week. For
tonight, a slow moving frontal boundary will continue to slide
across the region. Anticipate sprinkles or light showers with this
feature for much of the evening, and showers increasing overnight.
The cold front will finally move through the region early Tuesday
morning near the Cascades, and by mid to late morning in north
Idaho. This boundary will bring the best chance of rain with one
to two tenths of an inch of rain possible, while several inches of
high mountain snow is possible in the Cascades. The rain is
expected to decrease to scattered showers by late Wednesday
afternoon and into the evening. Breezy winds will increase out of
the west to southwest behind the front. Speeds will increase to 10
to 20 mph with gusts to 30 to 35 mph and persist through Tuesday
night. Snow levels will tumble down to 3-4k ft by early Wednesday
morning while showery conditions continue. Could see some light
snow accumulations Wednesday morning across the northern mountains
and higher valleys. But this will be short lived as snow levels
rise slightly. Meanwhile, the shower activity will increase
through the day especially across the Columbia Basin. Breezy winds
will redevelop during the afternoon and evening hours. As the
showers decrease Wednesday night, the next weather system will
quickly arrive and push a moist warm front across the Inland
Northwest. Anticipate one tenth to almost a quarter of a inch of
rain possible with this feature. Snow levels will rise to 4-5k ft
with another round of high mountain snow possible. Next a cold
front will arrive by Thursday evening and keep orographic showers
persisting over northeast Washington and north Idaho through
Friday. /rfox.

Friday Night through Monday...
The active weather pattern continues as another Pacific weather
system continues pushing into the region Friday night enhancing
valley rain the mountain snow along the Cascades and the
Washington/Idaho border eastward. This activity will last into
late Saturday afternoon. Snow levels may dip as low as 4000 feet.
So far model precipitation forecasts for the mountains is for at
least a half an inch of of liquid which could put a few inches of
snow in the mountains of the Idaho Panhandle by Saturday
afternoon. The low pressure trough will linger into Sunday with
the forecast still harboring some showers particularly in the
mountains. Going into the beginning of next week the forecast gets
a little more unsure as there are indications that some drying and
warming could come a little sooner as early as Sunday. Overall we
have kept the shower potential through the forecast but a return
to more seasonal temperatures and less showers looks likely toward
the beginning of next week. TC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: The region will come under an increasingly moist
southerly flow pattern out ahead of a cold front pushing into
western WA. The main aviation impact for this evening will be
thickening mid to high level cloud cover. Any precip that falls
will be very light. The cold front in western WA will begin to
move into the Cascades this evening. This will increase chances
for rain showers at KEAT with MVFR cigs possible after 06Z. The
area of precipitation will move east and bring lowering ceilings
and rain to the eastern TAF sites between 12Z and 18Z Tuesday.
Post frontal winds will shift to the southwest and increase after
17Z with gusts to 25 kts common. At KEAT downsloping winds will be
out of the northwest with gusts increasing to 35 kts and possibly
higher in the late afternoon Tuesday. /EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  51  34  50  39  53 /  40  90  30  50  10  80
Coeur d`Alene  43  52  33  50  38  52 /  30  90  50  60  20  80
Pullman        44  52  36  51  41  52 /  20  90  40  50  30  80
Lewiston       48  58  39  56  45  58 /  20  90  30  40  30  70
Colville       39  58  32  58  35  57 /  50  90  40  50  10  80
Sandpoint      39  54  34  49  36  51 /  20  90  80  70  30  70
Kellogg        41  52  33  46  36  49 /  20 100  90  70  40  80
Moses Lake     46  60  38  62  43  64 /  60  60  20  20  20  60
Wenatchee      46  59  41  60  44  62 /  70  60  20  20  20  70
Omak           43  58  34  61  38  60 /  60  70  20  20  10  90

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 212156
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
252 PM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN WILL SPREAD INLAND THIS EVENING AS A STATIONARY
FRONT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MOVES INLAND. A COOL AND WET PATTERN
FOR APRIL IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A
SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A SURFACE FRONT IS MOVING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL PUSH INLAND THIS EVENING. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES SHOW MOST
OF THE RAIN ALONG TO ABOUT 75 NM WEST OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THE
FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT WILL
BE COMBINED WITH INCREASED DIVERGENCE FROM 300-500 MB. MANY
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-5 CORRIDOR...WILL
LIKELY SEE ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER
OFF ALONG THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
0.5-1 FT RISES ON THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER NEAR
ARLINGTON EASTWARD THROUGH THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE AREA.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY GIVING COOL
CONDITIONS AND SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO THE CASCADES AND IN THE
VICINITY OF WHERE CONVERGENCE ZONES FORM OVER CENTRAL PUGET SOUND
AND POSSIBLY OVER SKAGIT AND SOUTHERN WHATCOM COUNTIES EAST OF THE
SOUTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE LATER
AS THE DAY WEARS ON AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
CENTERED NEAR 49N 140W WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH POPS ARE
INDICATED FOR MOST AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND ABOUT A QUARTER INCH OF
PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED MOST AREAS IN SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY...FIRST WITH SOME ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND
TUESDAY NIGHTS SYSTEM...THEN WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT THAT WILL
BE LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL OREGON LATER IN THE DAY. HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER 0.5 TO 1 INCH...CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. FARTHER NORTH
THERE MAY BE SOME SUN BREAKS...AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHTER.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL AFFECT THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM...WHICH CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM 50N 160W SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE WEST CENTRAL PACIFIC
HAS ENTRAINED SOME MOISTURE FROM AN OLD TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR
THE MARIANA ISLANDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS OVER 40 MM WITH THE PLUME AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS
MOISTURE WILL WRAP INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES ON THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE CASCADES.

SNOW LEVELS STARTING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM 3000 TO 4500 FEET. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE PASSES. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE
ON A DECREASING TREND AS A COOL UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA. MOST OF THE DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS
WEAK SYSTEMS EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
COOL AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. A MORE WELL DEFINED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LONG TERM MODELS
ARE HINTING AT A CHANGE TO MORE RIDGING EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR GRADUAL
DRYING AND WARMING. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE EXCEPTION IS THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF
THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE NEAR OSO WHERE A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THIS RIVER AS A
RESULT OF WATER POOLED BEHIND THE DEBRIS DAM THAT PARTIALLY BLOCKS
THE RIVER.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GIVE ABOUT ONE-HALF INCH OF RAIN
OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LANDSLIDE AREA NEAR OSO.
AFTER RISING 0.5 TO 1 FT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE NORTH FORK OF
THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY FALL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY EVENING AS ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AFFECT THE
AREA. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT COULD GIVE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...THE NORTH FORK OF
THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER IN THE SLIDE AREA WILL SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RISES THAN WHAT ARE CURRENTLY INDICATED IN THE RIVER FORECASTS.

AT 230 PM...THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH NEAR ARLINGTON WAS
AT 4.5 FT...OR 2745 CFS. THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER
NEAR OSO WAS AT 216.4 FT AT 1765 CFS. THE SLIDE POOL EAST OF THE
SLIDE WAS AT 283.2 FT AT 230 PM. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...A FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY.
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME WESTERLY LATE TUESDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS STABLE WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. IT WILL
BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE AND MOIST AT ALL LEVELS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KSEA...CEILINGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 5K FT THIS EVENING. SHOULD
BE SOME MVFR 2-3K CEILINGS BEGINNING 08Z OR SO. SOUTHWEST WIND 4-8
KT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY 03Z. SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER 01Z. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR WESTERLY
SWELL 10 TO 12 FEET CONTINUES TONIGHT FOR THE COAST. THE ADVISORY
FOR THE WEST ENTRANCE EXPIRES AT 5 PM. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AFTER A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE STRAIT WITH WINDS 20-30
KT FORECAST. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME
OUTFLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR IN ADMIRALTY
INLET AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
STRENGTH WINDS ARE LIKELY ON THE COAST. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
THURSDAY. THIS ONE LOOKS STRONGER WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH
WINDS POSSIBLE OVER MOST WATERS. CHB


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
      STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT...
      ADMIRALTY INLET...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS COAST AND WEST STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KOTX 212134
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
233 PM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
An active and wet spring weather pattern can be expected across
the Inland Northwest. A cold front will be a good chance of rain
on Tuesday followed by breezy winds. Scattered showers will be
found on Wednesday. Then another Pacific storm will bring rain on
Thursday, with more showery conditions Friday and into the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday: Active and wet spring weather will be
found across the Inland NW this week as a series of Pacific storms
moving through the region. The models point at the wetter days to
be Tuesday and Thursday, while the subsequent days will see hit
and miss showers. After today`s mild temperatures, readings will
remain cool and below normal for the rest of the week. For
tonight, a slow moving frontal boundary will continue to slide
across the region. Anticipate sprinkles or light showers with this
feature for much of the evening, and showers increasing overnight.
The cold front will finally move through the region early Tuesday
morning near the Cascades, and by mid to late morning in north
Idaho. This boundary will bring the best chance of rain with one
to two tenths of an inch of rain possible, while several inches of
high mountain snow is possible in the Cascades. The rain is
expected to decrease to scattered showers by late Wednesday
afternoon and into the evening. Breezy winds will increase out of
the west to southwest behind the front. Speeds will increase to 10
to 20 mph with gusts to 30 to 35 mph and persist through Tuesday
night. Snow levels will tumble down to 3-4k ft by early Wednesday
morning while showery conditions continue. Could see some light
snow accumulations Wednesday morning across the northern mountains
and higher valleys. But this will be short lived as snow levels
rise slightly. Meanwhile, the shower activity will increase
through the day especially across the Columbia Basin. Breezy winds
will redevelop during the afternoon and evening hours. As the
showers decrease Wednesday night, the next weather system will
quickly arrive and push a moist warm front across the Inland
Northwest. Anticipate one tenth to almost a quarter of a inch of
rain possible with this feature. Snow levels will rise to 4-5k ft
with another round of high mountain snow possible. Next a cold
front will arrive by Thursday evening and keep orographic showers
persisting over northeast Washington and north Idaho through
Friday. /rfox.

Friday Night through Monday...
The active weather pattern continues as another Pacific weather
system continues pushing into the region Friday night enhancing
valley rain the mountain snow along the Cascades and the
Washington/Idaho border eastward. This activity will last into
late Saturday afternoon. Snow levels may dip as low as 4000 feet.
So far model precipitation forecasts for the mountains is for at
least a half an inch of of liquid which could put a few inches of
snow in the mountains of the Idaho Panhandle by Saturday
afternoon. The low pressure trough will linger into Sunday with
the forecast still harboring some showers particularly in the
mountains. Going into the beginning of next week the forecast gets
a little more unsure as there are indications that some drying and
warming could come a little sooner as early as Sunday. Overall we
have kept the shower potential through the forecast but a return
to more seasonal temperatures and less showers looks likely toward
the beginning of next week. TC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The region will come under an increasingly moist
southerly flow pattern out ahead of a cold front pushing into
western WA. The main aviation impact for this afternoon into this
evening will be thickening mid to high level cloud cover. Any
precip that falls will be very light. The cold front in western WA
will begin to move into the Cascades this evening. This will
increase chances for rain showers at KEAT with MVFR cigs possible
after 06Z. the area of precipitation will move east and bring
lowering ceilings and rain to the eastern TAF sites between 12Z
and 18Z Tuesday. /MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  51  34  50  39  53 /  40  90  30  50  10  80
Coeur d`Alene  43  52  33  50  38  52 /  30  90  50  60  20  80
Pullman        44  52  36  51  41  52 /  20  90  40  50  30  80
Lewiston       48  58  39  56  45  58 /  20  90  30  40  30  70
Colville       39  58  32  58  35  57 /  50  90  40  50  10  80
Sandpoint      39  54  34  49  36  51 /  20  90  80  70  30  70
Kellogg        41  52  33  46  36  49 /  20 100  90  70  40  80
Moses Lake     46  60  38  62  43  64 /  60  60  20  20  20  60
Wenatchee      46  59  41  60  44  62 /  70  60  20  20  20  70
Omak           43  58  34  61  38  60 /  60  70  20  20  10  90

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 211741
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1041 AM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing clouds can be expected today with possible sprinkles
through the day. Although we will see plenty of cloud cover today,
temperatures will be mild for mid April. A cool and showery
unsettled weather pattern returns Monday night and will linger
through much of the work week before showing signs of exiting for
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today...satellite indicates a highly meridional trough off
the coast slowly approaching the forecast area. mid and upper
level enhancement on the satellite loop over the forecast area in
the southerly flow ahead of this trough is mostly high
clouds...although regional radar suggests some lower cloud decks
featuring some virga scattered throughout the basin. The
meridional nature of this system suggest no real precipitation
threat until the main trough baroclinic region moves into the
forecast area tonight and tomorrow. Until then today will feature
thick mid level and high clouds...with the possibility of a few
sprinkles falling out of some of the thicker and lower decks.
otherwise a relatively quiet day albeit with no sunshine...and
mild temperatures in the warm advective southerly pre-trough flow
regime. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The region will come under an increasingly moist
southerly flow pattern out ahead of a cold front pushing into
western WA. The main aviation impact for this afternoon into this
evening will be thickening mid to high level cloud cover. Any
precip that falls will be very light. The cold front in western WA
will begin to move into the Cascades this evening. This will
increase chances for rain showers at KEAT with MVFR cigs possible
after 06Z. the area of precipitation will move east and bring
lowering ceilings and rain to the eastern TAF sites between 12Z
and 18Z Tuesday. /MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        61  44  51  35  50  36 /  10  40  80  30  50  10
Coeur d`Alene  65  44  51  34  49  35 /  10  30  90  50  60  20
Pullman        65  45  49  34  48  37 /  10  20  90  40  50  30
Lewiston       71  50  55  39  54  41 /  10  20  80  30  40  30
Colville       63  40  54  33  56  35 /  20  50  90  40  50  10
Sandpoint      64  42  52  33  49  36 /  20  20  90  80  70  30
Kellogg        65  42  51  33  48  36 /   0  20 100  80  70  40
Moses Lake     67  47  57  37  59  39 /  10  60  60  20  20  20
Wenatchee      65  48  55  41  57  42 /  20  70  60  10  20  20
Omak           64  43  54  34  57  36 /  20  60  70  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 211603
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
900 AM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AND
WETTER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE NEXT PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHOWERS CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO CASCADE
PASS LEVELS. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT
FOR RAIN GOING INTO WED...THEN ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 135W. MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW STREAMS INTO THE PACNW. A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED INLAND EARLY
THIS MORNING AND IS NOW OVER THE CASCADES. RADAR IS SHOWING MORE
SUBSTANTIAL PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A BAROCLININC ZONE APPROACHING THE
COAST. AIR MASS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT AN
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY WILL BEGIN TO USHER IN
COOLER MARINE AIR AGAIN ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SAME TREND AS CURRENT FORECAST...AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TODAY THEN RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL
FOR TONIGHT AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE PUSHES THROUGH AND THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. POPS REMAIN HIGH TUE AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WITH COOLEST AIR ALOFT MOVES ACROSS AND WILL PROBABLY BRING
SNOW DOWN 3000 FT - BELOW CASCADE PASS LEVELS. BUT WITH WEAKENING
OROGRAPHICS AND DECREASING MOISTURE DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.TUE NIGHT INTO WED...DEEP ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS
KEEPING MID AND LOW LEVELS MOIST. WITH UPPER HEIGHTS REBUILDING
BEHIND THE TROUGH...WARM AIR ADEVECTION KICKS IN FOR THE LOWER
LEVELS. GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST SOME MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR
290K INSENTROPE TUE NIGHT...THEN INCREASE THE LIFT WED IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE NW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP POPS HIGH FOR TUE
NIGHT...AND INCREASE POPS SOME FOR WED IN LIGHT OF THE DEPICTED
ISENTROPIC LIFT.

CONVECTION POTENTIAL...GFS SUGGESTS IN INSTABILITY DEEP ENOUGH TO
CARRY A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS...BUT NAM AND ECWMF DEPICT SHALLOWER
INSTABILITY THAT WOULD LIKELY NOT SUPPORT THUNDER. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH STABILTY PROFILES WILL NOT ALTER THE THREAT FOR
THUNDER ACROSS THE S IN FOR THE MORNING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED FCST
PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK CLOUDY...COOL...AND WET. MODEL AGREEMENT IS
GOOD THAT A WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN WED NIGHT INTO
EARLY THU...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
DAY ON THU. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND
LATER THU AND FRI AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
PAC NW. WE MAY ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME AS THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE REGION. EXPECT SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MODELED TO MOVE
ONSHORE SOMETIME LATER SAT OR SUN...WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING A ROUND
OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY VFR THIS MORNING...WITH A WEAK
UPPER FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
THE MAIN LOWER LEVEL FRONT AND MAIN PERIOD OF RAIN IS STILL JUST
OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING BUT WILL MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND INLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH IT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS AN UPPER
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STEADIER RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE MAIN
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. PT
&&

.MARINE...STILL HAVE SOME SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS IN THE INNER
WATER AREA OFF NEWPORT THIS MORNING THAT WILL SHIFT TO NW DURING
THIS AFTERNOON AS NW WINDS SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHERN WATERS AND
THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT...THEN RISE
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM WHICH IS NOW WEST OF
VANCOUVER ISLAND MOVES TOWARD THE WASHINGTON AND B.C COAST THEN
MOVERS INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A TRAILING POSSIBLY
STRONGER LOW WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.

SEAS REMAIN 12 TO 13 FT THIS MORNING...AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
THROUGH TONIGHT...FALLING BELOW 10 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL RISE ABOVE 10 FT LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FROM THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...BRIEFLY FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE RISING ABOVE 10 FT THURSDAY. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     3 AM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KPQR 211603
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
900 AM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AND
WETTER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE NEXT PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHOWERS CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO CASCADE
PASS LEVELS. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT
FOR RAIN GOING INTO WED...THEN ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 135W. MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW STREAMS INTO THE PACNW. A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED INLAND EARLY
THIS MORNING AND IS NOW OVER THE CASCADES. RADAR IS SHOWING MORE
SUBSTANTIAL PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A BAROCLININC ZONE APPROACHING THE
COAST. AIR MASS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT AN
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY WILL BEGIN TO USHER IN
COOLER MARINE AIR AGAIN ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SAME TREND AS CURRENT FORECAST...AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TODAY THEN RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL
FOR TONIGHT AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE PUSHES THROUGH AND THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. POPS REMAIN HIGH TUE AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WITH COOLEST AIR ALOFT MOVES ACROSS AND WILL PROBABLY BRING
SNOW DOWN 3000 FT - BELOW CASCADE PASS LEVELS. BUT WITH WEAKENING
OROGRAPHICS AND DECREASING MOISTURE DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.TUE NIGHT INTO WED...DEEP ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS
KEEPING MID AND LOW LEVELS MOIST. WITH UPPER HEIGHTS REBUILDING
BEHIND THE TROUGH...WARM AIR ADEVECTION KICKS IN FOR THE LOWER
LEVELS. GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST SOME MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR
290K INSENTROPE TUE NIGHT...THEN INCREASE THE LIFT WED IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE NW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP POPS HIGH FOR TUE
NIGHT...AND INCREASE POPS SOME FOR WED IN LIGHT OF THE DEPICTED
ISENTROPIC LIFT.

CONVECTION POTENTIAL...GFS SUGGESTS IN INSTABILITY DEEP ENOUGH TO
CARRY A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS...BUT NAM AND ECWMF DEPICT SHALLOWER
INSTABILITY THAT WOULD LIKELY NOT SUPPORT THUNDER. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH STABILTY PROFILES WILL NOT ALTER THE THREAT FOR
THUNDER ACROSS THE S IN FOR THE MORNING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED FCST
PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK CLOUDY...COOL...AND WET. MODEL AGREEMENT IS
GOOD THAT A WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN WED NIGHT INTO
EARLY THU...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
DAY ON THU. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND
LATER THU AND FRI AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
PAC NW. WE MAY ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME AS THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE REGION. EXPECT SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MODELED TO MOVE
ONSHORE SOMETIME LATER SAT OR SUN...WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING A ROUND
OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY VFR THIS MORNING...WITH A WEAK
UPPER FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
THE MAIN LOWER LEVEL FRONT AND MAIN PERIOD OF RAIN IS STILL JUST
OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING BUT WILL MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND INLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH IT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS AN UPPER
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STEADIER RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE MAIN
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. PT
&&

.MARINE...STILL HAVE SOME SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS IN THE INNER
WATER AREA OFF NEWPORT THIS MORNING THAT WILL SHIFT TO NW DURING
THIS AFTERNOON AS NW WINDS SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHERN WATERS AND
THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT...THEN RISE
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM WHICH IS NOW WEST OF
VANCOUVER ISLAND MOVES TOWARD THE WASHINGTON AND B.C COAST THEN
MOVERS INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A TRAILING POSSIBLY
STRONGER LOW WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.

SEAS REMAIN 12 TO 13 FT THIS MORNING...AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
THROUGH TONIGHT...FALLING BELOW 10 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL RISE ABOVE 10 FT LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FROM THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...BRIEFLY FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE RISING ABOVE 10 FT THURSDAY. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     3 AM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 211603
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
900 AM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AND
WETTER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE NEXT PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHOWERS CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO CASCADE
PASS LEVELS. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT
FOR RAIN GOING INTO WED...THEN ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 135W. MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW STREAMS INTO THE PACNW. A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED INLAND EARLY
THIS MORNING AND IS NOW OVER THE CASCADES. RADAR IS SHOWING MORE
SUBSTANTIAL PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A BAROCLININC ZONE APPROACHING THE
COAST. AIR MASS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT AN
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY WILL BEGIN TO USHER IN
COOLER MARINE AIR AGAIN ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SAME TREND AS CURRENT FORECAST...AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TODAY THEN RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL
FOR TONIGHT AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE PUSHES THROUGH AND THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. POPS REMAIN HIGH TUE AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WITH COOLEST AIR ALOFT MOVES ACROSS AND WILL PROBABLY BRING
SNOW DOWN 3000 FT - BELOW CASCADE PASS LEVELS. BUT WITH WEAKENING
OROGRAPHICS AND DECREASING MOISTURE DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.TUE NIGHT INTO WED...DEEP ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS
KEEPING MID AND LOW LEVELS MOIST. WITH UPPER HEIGHTS REBUILDING
BEHIND THE TROUGH...WARM AIR ADEVECTION KICKS IN FOR THE LOWER
LEVELS. GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST SOME MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR
290K INSENTROPE TUE NIGHT...THEN INCREASE THE LIFT WED IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE NW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP POPS HIGH FOR TUE
NIGHT...AND INCREASE POPS SOME FOR WED IN LIGHT OF THE DEPICTED
ISENTROPIC LIFT.

CONVECTION POTENTIAL...GFS SUGGESTS IN INSTABILITY DEEP ENOUGH TO
CARRY A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS...BUT NAM AND ECWMF DEPICT SHALLOWER
INSTABILITY THAT WOULD LIKELY NOT SUPPORT THUNDER. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH STABILTY PROFILES WILL NOT ALTER THE THREAT FOR
THUNDER ACROSS THE S IN FOR THE MORNING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED FCST
PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK CLOUDY...COOL...AND WET. MODEL AGREEMENT IS
GOOD THAT A WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN WED NIGHT INTO
EARLY THU...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
DAY ON THU. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND
LATER THU AND FRI AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
PAC NW. WE MAY ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME AS THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE REGION. EXPECT SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MODELED TO MOVE
ONSHORE SOMETIME LATER SAT OR SUN...WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING A ROUND
OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY VFR THIS MORNING...WITH A WEAK
UPPER FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
THE MAIN LOWER LEVEL FRONT AND MAIN PERIOD OF RAIN IS STILL JUST
OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING BUT WILL MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND INLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH IT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS AN UPPER
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STEADIER RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE MAIN
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. PT
&&

.MARINE...STILL HAVE SOME SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS IN THE INNER
WATER AREA OFF NEWPORT THIS MORNING THAT WILL SHIFT TO NW DURING
THIS AFTERNOON AS NW WINDS SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHERN WATERS AND
THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT...THEN RISE
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM WHICH IS NOW WEST OF
VANCOUVER ISLAND MOVES TOWARD THE WASHINGTON AND B.C COAST THEN
MOVERS INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A TRAILING POSSIBLY
STRONGER LOW WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.

SEAS REMAIN 12 TO 13 FT THIS MORNING...AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
THROUGH TONIGHT...FALLING BELOW 10 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL RISE ABOVE 10 FT LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FROM THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...BRIEFLY FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE RISING ABOVE 10 FT THURSDAY. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     3 AM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KSEW 211551
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
852 AM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BRING
LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST TODAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. A COOL AND WET
PATTERN FOR APRIL WILL SET UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEATHER RADARS
SHOW A STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM SOUTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND SSW
INTO THE OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS. THE FRONT MOVED FAR ENOUGH TO THE
EAST SO THAT STEADY LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED ONSHORE OVER THE NORTH
COAST. PRECIPITATION ALSO APPEARS TO BE NUDGING CLOSE TO THE PACIFIC
BEACHES IN GRAYS HARBOR COUNTY. THE INTERIOR IS JUST SEEING BROKEN
TO OVERCAST CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE
AND WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE GIVING LIGHT WINDS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING INLAND THIS EVENING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ABOUT 140W MOVES EASTWARD. PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE INLAND AND INCREASE SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT PUGET
SOUND AND INTERSTATE 5 EASTWARD...AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ABOVE
500 MB INCREASES WITH THE INCOMING UPPER TOUGH AIDED BY SOME LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE 06Z GFS AND THE
00Z 4 KM WRFGFS SOLUTIONS FROM LAST NIGHT SHOW WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.5-0.75 INCHES. THE 12Z NAM HAS MOVED FROM AN EARLIER
DRYER SOLUTION TOWARD THE WETTER GFS. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN 0.5-1 FT RISES ON THE NORTH FORK OF THE
STILLAGUAMISH RIVER NEAR ARLINGTON EASTWARD THROUGH THE SR 530
LANDSLIDE AREA.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY GIVING COOL
CONDITIONS AND SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO THE CASCADES AND IN THE
VICINITY OF WHERE CONVERGENCE ZONES FORM OVER CENTRAL PUGET SOUND
AND POSSIBLY OVER SKAGIT AND SOUTHERN WHATCOM COUNTIES EAST OF THE
SOUTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE LATER
AS THE DAY WEARS ON AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE 06Z GFS...IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF...BRINGS A SYSTEM - THE ONE NOW SITTING NEAR 50N 145W - ACROSS
THE AREA FOR RESUMED SHOWER. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS A RIPPLE IN THE
FLOW BRINGING RAINFALL THOUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE KEEPS THE SYSTEM MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. THE HIGHEST UNCERTAINTY CONCERNS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
FROM ABOUT SEATTLE AND FORKS NORTHWARD WHERE THE GFS IS DRIER.
HOPEFULLY THE INCOMING 12Z SOLUTIONS WILL CONVERGE A BIT.

AT THIS TIME...CURRENT FORECASTS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK. WILL MAKE A
MINOR UPDATE TO ADD SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH MIDDAY FOR THE
INTERIOR. OTHERWISE NO UPDATES ARE REQUIRED. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM SOLUTION...00Z EXTENDED
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A WETTER AND MORE ORGANIZED
FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM...CURRENTLY NEAR 170W...HAS SOME TAP TO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN PACIFIC AND MAY RESULT IN SOME MODERATE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SETTING UP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH
PULLING MORE OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT VERSUS THE ECMWF. THE CANADIAN WHICH WAS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKE THE GFS. AT THIS POINT
WITH THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE
MODELS ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS STAYING IN THE 50S. FELTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE EXCEPTION IS THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF
THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE NEAR OSO WHERE A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THIS RIVER AS A
RESULT OF WATER POOLED BEHIND THE DEBRIS DAM THAT PARTIALLY BLOCKS
THE RIVER.

AT 800 AM...THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH NEAR ARLINGTON IS AT
4.7 FT...OR 3010 CFS. THE RIVER WILL RECEDE TO AROUND 4.5 FEET BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
THE RIVER WILL RISE AGAIN ON TUESDAY CRESTING NEAR 5.5 FEET/4200 CFS
TUESDAY EVENING. THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER NEAR OSO
IS AT 216.5 FEET OR 1890 CFS. THE RIVER WILL RECEDE THROUGH LATE
TODAY THEN RISE TO 217.1 FT BY LATE TUESDAY. THE SLIDE POOL EAST OF
THE LANDSLIDE IS AT 283.5 FEET. IT WILL ALSO SLOWLY RECEDE TODAY
THEN RISE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...A FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW
ON TUESDAY. MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME WESTERLY LATE
TUESDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS STABLE WITH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. IT WILL
BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE AND MOIST AT ALL LEVELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

KSEA...CEILINGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 5K FT THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOUTHEAST WIND 4-8 KT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AFTER 00Z. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR WESTERLY
SWELL 10 TO 12 FEET CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE COAST AND
THROUGH TODAY FOR THE WEST ENTRANCE. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE STRAIT WITH WINDS 20-30 KT
FORECAST. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND ANOTHER WILL ARRIVE
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS ARE LIKELY ON THE
COAST WITH BOTH SYSTEMS. CHB


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
      STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS COAST AND WEST
      STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KOTX 211143
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
443 AM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing clouds can be expected today with occasional sprinkles
through the day. Although we will see plenty of cloud cover
today, temperatures will be mild for mid April. A cool and showery
unsettled weather pattern returns Monday night and will linger
through much of the work week before showing signs of exiting for
the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today: The flow pattern will become increasingly more southerly
today, which will draw up more moist and mild air into the region.
This will be in response to an approaching trough of lower
pressure in the eastern Pacific. The upper level trough will
continue to dig with time today as a moderately strong jet streak
of 160 kts pushes down on the backside of the trough. This will
orient the jet on the westerly side of the trough more
meridionally this afternoon. With the jet oriented more north-
south instead of the west-east, the cold front will likely take a
slower progression across the region. The cold front is already
beginning to shift west of 130W, but is not expected to push east
of the Cascades until tonight.

We will see increasing mid level moisture today. This will result
in thickening cloud cover with an increasing chance for some light
showers mainly across the Cascades and in the northern mtns. There
is enough drier air near the surface across the basin that mainly
virga showers or some sprinkles is expected today ahead of the
front. Although there will be plenty of cloud cover, temps are
expected to warm up nicely over the eastern half of the forecast
area compared to yesterday and will feel quite mild.

Tonight into Tuesday: Precip chances will increase markedly from
west to east overnight into Tuesday as the front pushes through.
Good upper level dynamics and forcing along the front will result
in rain showers over most areas. Rain showers will push as far
east as the ID border tonight into early Tuesday morning. Then
pick up in intensity across the eastern third of the WA and into
the ID Panhandle through Tuesday morning into the afternoon.
Pressure gradients will tighten behind the front with winds
increasing from the west through the afternoon. Expect sustained
winds of 20-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Rain showers and
cloud cover on Tuesday will hold down our temperatures through the
afternoon hours. Temperatures are expected to be 10-20 degrees
cooler compared to Monday with highs in the low to mid 50s for
most valley locations. /SVH

Tue Nt through Sat: As the cold upper trough moves NE into Wrn
Montana Wed morning, we`ll slowly transition from a highly
convective regime to a more stable pattern under short-wave
ridging. The valleys of the north Idaho Panhandle and NE Wa Wed
morning are still under a threat of snow showers. But most likely
any significant accumulations will be limited to the mountains
above about 3k ft. The wrn end of the trowal structure that wraps
around the upper low nearly stalls across the BC border with
Idaho even through Wed. Lingering rain/snow is the result for the
aforementioned valleys and mtns. Beginning Wed Nt, a more
widespread stratiform pcpn event will keep high chances of pcpn
in the fcst for most zones... especially Thurs as deep isentropic
ascent over an advancing warm front moves NE across the region.
Due to the shearing/splitting of the accompanying upper trough in
response to a jet speed max digging toward northern California
Thurs Nt, the cold front will stall directly across Ern Wa and N
Idaho. This slowly weakening boundary won`t begin to move out of
the area until Sat, leading to a very cool and showery Fri and
Sat. There is also a significant vort max that moves north into
Ern Wa Fri as well, enhancing the prolonged pcpn threat. bz

Sunday and Monday: An exiting trough will signal somewhat of a
drying trend for the early week. However, there is some indication
that yet another moist weather system will affect the region soon
after. While precipitation were nudged downward, did not want to
bring them too far down given this possibility. Temperatures on
Sunday will be slightly below normal, while warming toward normal
on Monday. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: The region will come under an increasingly moist
southerly flow pattern out ahead of a cold front pushing into
western WA. The main aviation impact for this afternoon into this
evening will be thickening mid to high level cloud cover. Any
precip that falls will be very light. The cold front in western WA
will begin to move into the Cascades this evening. This will
increase chances for rain showers at KEAT with MVFR cigs possible
after 06Z. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        64  44  51  35  50  36 /  10  40  80  30  50  10
Coeur d`Alene  68  44  51  34  49  35 /  10  30  90  50  60  20
Pullman        68  45  49  34  48  37 /  10  20  90  40  50  20
Lewiston       74  50  55  39  54  41 /   0  20  80  30  40  20
Colville       65  40  54  33  56  35 /  20  50  90  40  50  10
Sandpoint      66  42  52  33  49  36 /  20  20  90  80  70  30
Kellogg        66  42  51  33  48  36 /  10  10 100  80  70  30
Moses Lake     69  47  57  37  59  39 /  10  60  60  20  20  20
Wenatchee      67  48  55  41  57  42 /  10  70  60  10  20  20
Omak           66  43  54  34  57  36 /  20  60  70  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 211035
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
335 AM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST WILL BRING RAIN TO
THE NORTH COAST TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. A COOL AND WET PATTERN FOR APRIL WILL SET
UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MORE WEATHER
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDY SKIES OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON AT 3 AM. STATIONARY FRONT OFFSHORE EXTENDING FROM ABOUT
30 MILES WEST OF CAPE FLATTERY TO ABOUT 100 NM WEST OF HOQUIAM. RAIN
STARTED AT KUIL AROUND 0530Z/1030 PM LAST NIGHT. ABOUT A THIRD OF AN
INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT KUIL SINCE THE RAIN STARTED. TEMPERATURES
AT 3 AM WERE IN THE 40S.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH A COOL AND WET FOR
APRIL SPELL OF WEATHER THIS WEEK. DIGGING TROUGH OFFSHORE BETWEEN
130-140W COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER MONTANA WILL KEEP
THE FRONT OFFSHORE FROM MAKING MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS TODAY. RAIN
WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH COAST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WHILE THE DIFFLUENT SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS STILL IN PLACE
THE THICKNESS OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER THE AIR MASS FROM
BECOMING UNSTABLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CUT
BACK THE POPS AND TAKEN THE SHOWER CHANCES OUT OF THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS THIS MORNING. WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING OUT OF THE 50S.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST MOVING
EASTWARD TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT TO MOVE
INLAND OVERNIGHT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOLLOWING RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOWS
IN THE 40S.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION
CONVERGENCE PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL SOUND ENHANCING THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY. TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE CASCADES LATE IN THE
DAY WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DECREASING AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOLING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW 0C. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND A
COOL AIR MASS OVERHEAD HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...LOWER TO MID 50S.

SLIGHT BREAK IN THE WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WITH SOME TROUGHINESS
STILL OVER THE AREA WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST.

MODELS SOLUTIONS FOR WEDNESDAY ARE A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT ON THE
00Z RUN BUT STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES. THE GFS BUILDS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE COAST WHICH TURNS THE FLOW ALOFT WEST
NORTHWESTERLY PUSHING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOSTLY INTO WESTERN OREGON
AND SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON ON WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF DOESN`T BUILD
THE RIDGE OFF THE COAST KEEPING THE FLOW ALOFT WESTERLY MOVING THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE GFS HAS BEEN
SLOWLY TRENDING NORTHWARD WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE LAST FEW RUNS.
WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA...LIKELY IN THE CENTRAL...AND CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT NOT WARMING UP MUCH WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
JUST ABOVE 0. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...00Z EXTENDED MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A WETTER
AND MORE ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM...CURRENTLY NEAR 170W...HAS SOME TAP
TO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN PACIFIC AND MAY RESULT IN
SOME MODERATE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOL UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE
TROUGH PULLING MORE OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT VERSUS THE ECMWF. THE CANADIAN WHICH WAS
MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKE THE GFS. AT
THIS POINT WITH THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BETTER AGREEMENT
IN THE MODELS ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE 50S. FELTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE EXCEPTION IS THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF
THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE NEAR OSO WHERE A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THIS RIVER AS A
RESULT OF WATER POOLED BEHIND THE DEBRIS DAM THAT PARTIALLY BLOCKS
THE RIVER.

AT 215 AM...THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH NEAR ARLINGTON IS AT
4.9 FT...OR 3250 CFS. THE RIVER WILL RECEDE TO AROUND 4.5 FEET BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
THE RIVER WILL RISE AGAIN ON TUESDAY CRESTING NEAR 5.8 FEET/4700 CFS
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER NEAR OSO IS
AT 216.6 FEET OR 2030 CFS. THE RIVER WILL RECEDE THROUGH LATE TODAY.
THE SLIDE POOL EAST OF THE LANDSLIDE IS AT 283.7 FEET. IT WILL ALSO
SLOWLY RECEDE TODAY. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT JUST OFFSHORE
WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO WRN WA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODERATE S/SW
FLOW ALOFT. STABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...BECOMING
WEAKLY UNSTABLE AND MOIST AT ALL LEVELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHOWERS INCREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

KSEA...CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 5K FT THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT
WIND...BECOMING NW 3-6 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER
00Z.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT. WESTERLY
SWELL AROUND 12 TO 14 FEET OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL SUBSIDE TO
10 FEET BY THIS EVENING. SWELL OF 11 TO 13 FEET AT THE W ENTRANCE
WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 10 FT BY THIS EVENING.

PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT TODAY. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS THIS EVENING WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE
CENTRAL/E STRAIT.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
     STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS COAST AND WEST STRAIT
     OF JUAN DE FUCA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KOTX 211000
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
300 AM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing clouds can be expected today with occasional sprinkles
through the day. Although we will see plenty of cloud cover
today, temperatures will be mild for mid April. A cool and showery
unsettled weather pattern returns Monday night and will linger
through much of the work week before showing signs of exiting for
the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today: The flow pattern will become increasingly more southerly
today, which will draw up more moist and mild air into the region.
This will be in response to an approaching trough of lower
pressure in the eastern Pacific. The upper level trough will
continue to dig with time today as a moderately strong jet streak
of 160 kts pushes down on the backside of the trough. This will
orient the jet on the westerly side of the trough more
meridionally this afternoon. With the jet oriented more north-
south instead of the west-east, the cold front will likely take a
slower progression across the region. The cold front is already
beginning to shift west of 130W, but is not expected to push east
of the Cascades until tonight.

We will see increasing mid level moisture today. This will result
in thickening cloud cover with an increasing chance for some light
showers mainly across the Cascades and in the northern mtns. There
is enough drier air near the surface across the basin that mainly
virga showers or some sprinkles is expected today ahead of the
front. Although there will be plenty of cloud cover, temps are
expected to warm up nicely over the eastern half of the forecast
area compared to yesterday and will feel quite mild.

Tonight into Tuesday: Precip chances will increase markedly from
west to east overnight into Tuesday as the front pushes through.
Good upper level dynamics and forcing along the front will result
in rain showers over most areas. Rain showers will push as far
east as the ID border tonight into early Tuesday morning. Then
pick up in intensity across the eastern third of the WA and into
the ID Panhandle through Tuesday morning into the afternoon.
Pressure gradients will tighten behind the front with winds
increasing from the west through the afternoon. Expect sustained
winds of 20-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Rain showers and
cloud cover on Tuesday will hold down our temperatures through the
afternoon hours. Temperatures are expected to be 10-20 degrees
cooler compared to Monday with highs in the low to mid 50s for
most valley locations. /SVH

Tue Nt through Sat: As the cold upper trough moves NE into Wrn
Montana Wed morning, we`ll slowly transition from a highly
convective regime to a more stable pattern under short-wave
ridging. The valleys of the north Idaho Panhandle and NE Wa Wed
morning are still under a threat of snow showers. But most likely
any significant accumulations will be limited to the mountains
above about 3k ft. The wrn end of the trowal structure that wraps
around the upper low nearly stalls across the BC border with
Idaho even through Wed. Lingering rain/snow is the result for the
aforementioned valleys and mtns. Beginning Wed Nt, a more
widespread stratiform pcpn event will keep high chances of pcpn
in the fcst for most zones... especially Thurs as deep isentropic
ascent over an advancing warm front moves NE across the region.
Due to the shearing/splitting of the accompanying upper trough in
response to a jet speed max digging toward northern California
Thurs Nt, the cold front will stall directly across Ern Wa and N
Idaho. This slowly weakening boundary won`t begin to move out of
the area until Sat, leading to a very cool and showery Fri and
Sat. There is also a significant vort max that moves north into
Ern Wa Fri as well, enhancing the prolonged pcpn threat. bz

Sunday and Monday: An exiting trough will signal somewhat of a
drying trend for the early week. However, there is some indication
that yet another moist weather system will affect the region soon
after. While precipitation were nudged downward, did not want to
bring them too far down given this possibility. Temperatures on
Sunday will be slightly below normal, while warming toward normal
on Monday. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Weak warm front continues to move through the aviation
area this evening, spreading some mid to high level cloud cover
across the region from west to east as it does so. Clouds will
thicken and lower aft 12z Monday and some showers may occur near
the Cascades and the Columbia Basin as early as 18Z...spreading
north as east through Monday but remain VFR through 06Z Tuesday.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        64  44  51  35  50  36 /  10  40  80  30  50  10
Coeur d`Alene  68  44  51  34  49  35 /  10  30  90  50  60  20
Pullman        68  45  49  34  48  37 /  10  20  90  40  50  20
Lewiston       74  50  55  39  54  41 /   0  20  80  30  40  20
Colville       65  40  54  33  56  35 /  20  50  90  40  50  10
Sandpoint      66  42  52  33  49  36 /  20  20  90  80  70  30
Kellogg        66  42  51  33  48  36 /  10  10 100  80  70  30
Moses Lake     69  47  57  37  59  39 /  10  60  60  20  20  20
Wenatchee      67  48  55  41  57  42 /  10  70  60  10  20  20
Omak           66  43  54  34  57  36 /  20  60  70  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 210915
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
215 AM PDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AND
WETTER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE NEXT PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION MON AND MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT.
SHOWERS CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO CASCAE
PASS LEVELS. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT
FOR SHOWERS GOING WED...THEN ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE SHOWED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EDGING INTO THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS A SSW FLOW BROUGHT INCREASING MOISTURE
ABOVE 700 MB. A FEW SHOWERS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR
OFFSHORE...AND AS MOISTURE INCREASE TODAY AND BAROCLINIC ZONE
APPROACHES EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY. AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT AN ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY WILL BEGIN TO USHER IN COOLER MARINE AIR
AGAIN ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE SAME TREND AS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TODAY THEN RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR TONIGHT AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE PUSHES THROUGH AND THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
THE COAST. POPS REMAIN HIGH TUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH WITH COOLEST AIR
ALOFT MOVES ACROSS. GFS SUGGESTS IN INSTABILITY DEEP ENOUGH TO CARRY
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS MOVES ACROSS...BUT NAM AND ECWMF DEPICT SHALLOWER INSTABILITY
THAT WOULD LIKELY NOT SUPPORT THUNDER. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH
STABILTY PROFILES WILL NOT ALTER THE THREAT FOR THUNDER ACROSS
THE S IN FOR THE MORNING.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED DEEP ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS KEEPING MID AND LOW
LEVELS MOIST. WITH UPPER HEIGHTS REBUILDING BEHIND THE TROUGH...WARM
AIR ADEVECTION KICKS IN FOR THE LOWER LEVELS. GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST
SOME MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR 290K INSENTROPE TUE
NIGHT...THEN INCREASE THE LIFT WED IN PARTICULAR FOR THE NW HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP POPS HIGH FOR TUE NIGHT...AND INCREASE
POPS SOME FOR WED IN LIGHT OF THE DEPICTED ISENTROPIC LIFT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED FCST
PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK CLOUDY...COOL...AND WET. MODEL AGREEMENT IS
GOOD THAT A WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN WED NIGHT INTO
EARLY THU...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
DAY ON THU. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND
LATER THU AND FRI AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
PAC NW. WE MAY ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME AS THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE REGION. EXPECT SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MODELED TO MOVE
ONSHORE SOMETIME LATER SAT OR SUN...WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING A ROUND
OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING
AS AN OFFSHORE FRONT SLIDES CLOSER TO THE COAST AND CONTINUES
FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. LOWER LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
DRY BUT WILL MOISTEN THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASING MID CLOUDS BUT
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY. MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS RAIN REACHES THE COAST AROUND 21Z...AND
PUSHES INLAND ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER 01Z TUE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON....BUT INCREASING MID CLOUDS THIS
AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. LOWERING CIGS AND RAIN
EXPECTED AFTER 01Z TUE AS FRONT REACHES TERMINAL WITH BRIEF
REDUCTION TO MVFR POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.  CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN 13 TO 15 FT OVER THE WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY BUT REMAIN
NEAR 10 FT THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MONDAY. WHILE SEAS MAY DROP
SLIGHTLY BELOW 10 FT ON TUE...SEAS REBUILD TO NEAR 12 FT BY WED
AS THE NEXT WESTERLY SWELL ARRIVES.

A RELATIVELY QUIET START TO THE WEEK OVER THE WATERS IN TERMS OF
WIND. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVES WED OR THU...LIKELY
BRINGING SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO ALL WATERS.  CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     3 AM PDT TUESDAY.


&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




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