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000
FXUS66 KSEW 031914 AAA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1215 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...BUT WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...TEMPS AT A NUMBER OF PLACES WERE RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN AT THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY...THANKS TO INCREASED ONSHORE
FLOW AND THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS. FORECAST WAS UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

SHORT TERM... STRATUS BLANKETED MUCH OF THE COAST THIS MORNING WHILE
THE INTERIOR /EAST OF THE OLYMPIC RANGE/ WAS BLANKETED BY MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES FALLING FROM THE ALTOCUMULUS
CLOUDS. IN CONTRAST...SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE OLYMPICS...
MUCH OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR. ANTICIPATE CLEARING FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COAST...WHERE STRATUS WILL PERSIST OVER SOME
AREAS.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVER OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY TODAY. THE MAIN IMPACT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON OUR
WEATHER WILL BE TO STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS.

LOW CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT
THEN  PUSH DOWN THE STRAIT AND THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP
OVERNIGHT. STRATUS WILL LIKELY FILL IN ACROSS MOST THE LOWLANDS
WITH A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BE
LOWER AND THE INCREASED MARINE INFLUENCE SHOULD HOLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO THE 70S OVER THE INTERIOR...NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY
AUGUST. THIS PATTERN WILL REPEAT ON WEDNESDAY. MERCER/05

.LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW SHOULD START TO MIGRATE EWD THURSDAY WITH WEAK
RIDGING ON FRIDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE LIGHTER WITH LESS CLOUDS
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MAY REACH THE LOW 80S
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

MODELS DISAGREE ON THE PATTERN THIS NEXT WEEKEND. SOLUTIONS RANGE
FROM A WEAK AND DRY SPLIT TROUGH TO A MORE CONSOLIDATED LOW. MOST
SOLUTIONS SHOW SOME QPF OVER THE PAC NW SO WILL LEAVE THE SHOWERS
IN  THE FORECAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROBABLY PICK UP WITH
MODERATING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING SW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE COAST TODAY...THEN MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. THE MAIN EFFECT
OF THE FRONT WILL BE TO SPREAD A DEEP STRATUS LAYER INLAND TONIGHT
AS WELL AS INCREASE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRIP OF SHALLOW
STRATUS ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AROUND PORT
ANGELES...AND A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS FROM THE WESTERN
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST TO WELL
OFFSHORE. IN THE INTERIOR THERE IS JUST ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS. EXPECT THE STRATUS IN THE STRAIT TO BURN OFF...BUT THE
STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THAT AREA. ACROSS
THE INTERIOR...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...REMNANTS OF OLD
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS A FRONT NOW OVER
NW VANCOUVER ISLAND SWINGS SE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE INCREASE IN
ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT STRATUS WITH BASES 040-050 TO SPREAD INLAND
THEN BASES WILL LOWER TO AROUND 020 OVERNIGHT. STRATUS BASES AROUND
010-015 TODAY AND THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY LOWER TO 007-010 LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. ALBRECHT

KSEA...GOOD VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CASCADES IS GIVING ONSHORE FLOW TO THE AREA. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT NOW OVER NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
WATERS. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING LATER IN THE WEEK.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REACH 30 TO 40 KNOTS
THERE THIS EVENING...THEN WILL SLOWLY RELAX EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE WATERS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AND A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TUESDAY
EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ADMIRALTY INLET
STARTING AT 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WITH THE
INFLOW THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BEYOND
10 NM FROM THE COASTLINE AS NW PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL RELAX MIDDAY
TUESDAY. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TIL 5 AM
 TUESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TIL
 11 AM TUESDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO
 CAPE SHOALWATER FROM 10 OUT TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 031914 AAA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1215 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...BUT WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...TEMPS AT A NUMBER OF PLACES WERE RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN AT THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY...THANKS TO INCREASED ONSHORE
FLOW AND THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS. FORECAST WAS UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

SHORT TERM... STRATUS BLANKETED MUCH OF THE COAST THIS MORNING WHILE
THE INTERIOR /EAST OF THE OLYMPIC RANGE/ WAS BLANKETED BY MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES FALLING FROM THE ALTOCUMULUS
CLOUDS. IN CONTRAST...SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE OLYMPICS...
MUCH OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR. ANTICIPATE CLEARING FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COAST...WHERE STRATUS WILL PERSIST OVER SOME
AREAS.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVER OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY TODAY. THE MAIN IMPACT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON OUR
WEATHER WILL BE TO STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS.

LOW CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT
THEN  PUSH DOWN THE STRAIT AND THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP
OVERNIGHT. STRATUS WILL LIKELY FILL IN ACROSS MOST THE LOWLANDS
WITH A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BE
LOWER AND THE INCREASED MARINE INFLUENCE SHOULD HOLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO THE 70S OVER THE INTERIOR...NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY
AUGUST. THIS PATTERN WILL REPEAT ON WEDNESDAY. MERCER/05

.LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW SHOULD START TO MIGRATE EWD THURSDAY WITH WEAK
RIDGING ON FRIDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE LIGHTER WITH LESS CLOUDS
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MAY REACH THE LOW 80S
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

MODELS DISAGREE ON THE PATTERN THIS NEXT WEEKEND. SOLUTIONS RANGE
FROM A WEAK AND DRY SPLIT TROUGH TO A MORE CONSOLIDATED LOW. MOST
SOLUTIONS SHOW SOME QPF OVER THE PAC NW SO WILL LEAVE THE SHOWERS
IN  THE FORECAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROBABLY PICK UP WITH
MODERATING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING SW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE COAST TODAY...THEN MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. THE MAIN EFFECT
OF THE FRONT WILL BE TO SPREAD A DEEP STRATUS LAYER INLAND TONIGHT
AS WELL AS INCREASE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRIP OF SHALLOW
STRATUS ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AROUND PORT
ANGELES...AND A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS FROM THE WESTERN
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST TO WELL
OFFSHORE. IN THE INTERIOR THERE IS JUST ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS. EXPECT THE STRATUS IN THE STRAIT TO BURN OFF...BUT THE
STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THAT AREA. ACROSS
THE INTERIOR...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...REMNANTS OF OLD
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS A FRONT NOW OVER
NW VANCOUVER ISLAND SWINGS SE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE INCREASE IN
ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT STRATUS WITH BASES 040-050 TO SPREAD INLAND
THEN BASES WILL LOWER TO AROUND 020 OVERNIGHT. STRATUS BASES AROUND
010-015 TODAY AND THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY LOWER TO 007-010 LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. ALBRECHT

KSEA...GOOD VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CASCADES IS GIVING ONSHORE FLOW TO THE AREA. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT NOW OVER NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
WATERS. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING LATER IN THE WEEK.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REACH 30 TO 40 KNOTS
THERE THIS EVENING...THEN WILL SLOWLY RELAX EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE WATERS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AND A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TUESDAY
EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ADMIRALTY INLET
STARTING AT 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WITH THE
INFLOW THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BEYOND
10 NM FROM THE COASTLINE AS NW PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL RELAX MIDDAY
TUESDAY. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TIL 5 AM
 TUESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TIL
 11 AM TUESDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO
 CAPE SHOALWATER FROM 10 OUT TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 031914 AAA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1215 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...BUT WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...TEMPS AT A NUMBER OF PLACES WERE RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN AT THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY...THANKS TO INCREASED ONSHORE
FLOW AND THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS. FORECAST WAS UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

SHORT TERM... STRATUS BLANKETED MUCH OF THE COAST THIS MORNING WHILE
THE INTERIOR /EAST OF THE OLYMPIC RANGE/ WAS BLANKETED BY MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES FALLING FROM THE ALTOCUMULUS
CLOUDS. IN CONTRAST...SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE OLYMPICS...
MUCH OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR. ANTICIPATE CLEARING FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COAST...WHERE STRATUS WILL PERSIST OVER SOME
AREAS.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVER OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY TODAY. THE MAIN IMPACT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON OUR
WEATHER WILL BE TO STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS.

LOW CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT
THEN  PUSH DOWN THE STRAIT AND THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP
OVERNIGHT. STRATUS WILL LIKELY FILL IN ACROSS MOST THE LOWLANDS
WITH A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BE
LOWER AND THE INCREASED MARINE INFLUENCE SHOULD HOLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO THE 70S OVER THE INTERIOR...NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY
AUGUST. THIS PATTERN WILL REPEAT ON WEDNESDAY. MERCER/05

.LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW SHOULD START TO MIGRATE EWD THURSDAY WITH WEAK
RIDGING ON FRIDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE LIGHTER WITH LESS CLOUDS
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MAY REACH THE LOW 80S
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

MODELS DISAGREE ON THE PATTERN THIS NEXT WEEKEND. SOLUTIONS RANGE
FROM A WEAK AND DRY SPLIT TROUGH TO A MORE CONSOLIDATED LOW. MOST
SOLUTIONS SHOW SOME QPF OVER THE PAC NW SO WILL LEAVE THE SHOWERS
IN  THE FORECAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROBABLY PICK UP WITH
MODERATING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING SW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE COAST TODAY...THEN MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. THE MAIN EFFECT
OF THE FRONT WILL BE TO SPREAD A DEEP STRATUS LAYER INLAND TONIGHT
AS WELL AS INCREASE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRIP OF SHALLOW
STRATUS ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AROUND PORT
ANGELES...AND A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS FROM THE WESTERN
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST TO WELL
OFFSHORE. IN THE INTERIOR THERE IS JUST ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS. EXPECT THE STRATUS IN THE STRAIT TO BURN OFF...BUT THE
STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THAT AREA. ACROSS
THE INTERIOR...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...REMNANTS OF OLD
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS A FRONT NOW OVER
NW VANCOUVER ISLAND SWINGS SE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE INCREASE IN
ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT STRATUS WITH BASES 040-050 TO SPREAD INLAND
THEN BASES WILL LOWER TO AROUND 020 OVERNIGHT. STRATUS BASES AROUND
010-015 TODAY AND THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY LOWER TO 007-010 LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. ALBRECHT

KSEA...GOOD VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CASCADES IS GIVING ONSHORE FLOW TO THE AREA. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT NOW OVER NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
WATERS. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING LATER IN THE WEEK.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REACH 30 TO 40 KNOTS
THERE THIS EVENING...THEN WILL SLOWLY RELAX EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE WATERS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AND A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TUESDAY
EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ADMIRALTY INLET
STARTING AT 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WITH THE
INFLOW THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BEYOND
10 NM FROM THE COASTLINE AS NW PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL RELAX MIDDAY
TUESDAY. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TIL 5 AM
 TUESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TIL
 11 AM TUESDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO
 CAPE SHOALWATER FROM 10 OUT TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 031914 AAA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1215 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...BUT WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...TEMPS AT A NUMBER OF PLACES WERE RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN AT THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY...THANKS TO INCREASED ONSHORE
FLOW AND THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS. FORECAST WAS UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

SHORT TERM... STRATUS BLANKETED MUCH OF THE COAST THIS MORNING WHILE
THE INTERIOR /EAST OF THE OLYMPIC RANGE/ WAS BLANKETED BY MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES FALLING FROM THE ALTOCUMULUS
CLOUDS. IN CONTRAST...SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE OLYMPICS...
MUCH OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR. ANTICIPATE CLEARING FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COAST...WHERE STRATUS WILL PERSIST OVER SOME
AREAS.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVER OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY TODAY. THE MAIN IMPACT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON OUR
WEATHER WILL BE TO STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS.

LOW CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT
THEN  PUSH DOWN THE STRAIT AND THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP
OVERNIGHT. STRATUS WILL LIKELY FILL IN ACROSS MOST THE LOWLANDS
WITH A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BE
LOWER AND THE INCREASED MARINE INFLUENCE SHOULD HOLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO THE 70S OVER THE INTERIOR...NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY
AUGUST. THIS PATTERN WILL REPEAT ON WEDNESDAY. MERCER/05

.LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW SHOULD START TO MIGRATE EWD THURSDAY WITH WEAK
RIDGING ON FRIDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE LIGHTER WITH LESS CLOUDS
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MAY REACH THE LOW 80S
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

MODELS DISAGREE ON THE PATTERN THIS NEXT WEEKEND. SOLUTIONS RANGE
FROM A WEAK AND DRY SPLIT TROUGH TO A MORE CONSOLIDATED LOW. MOST
SOLUTIONS SHOW SOME QPF OVER THE PAC NW SO WILL LEAVE THE SHOWERS
IN  THE FORECAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROBABLY PICK UP WITH
MODERATING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING SW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE COAST TODAY...THEN MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. THE MAIN EFFECT
OF THE FRONT WILL BE TO SPREAD A DEEP STRATUS LAYER INLAND TONIGHT
AS WELL AS INCREASE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRIP OF SHALLOW
STRATUS ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AROUND PORT
ANGELES...AND A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS FROM THE WESTERN
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST TO WELL
OFFSHORE. IN THE INTERIOR THERE IS JUST ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS. EXPECT THE STRATUS IN THE STRAIT TO BURN OFF...BUT THE
STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THAT AREA. ACROSS
THE INTERIOR...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...REMNANTS OF OLD
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS A FRONT NOW OVER
NW VANCOUVER ISLAND SWINGS SE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE INCREASE IN
ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT STRATUS WITH BASES 040-050 TO SPREAD INLAND
THEN BASES WILL LOWER TO AROUND 020 OVERNIGHT. STRATUS BASES AROUND
010-015 TODAY AND THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY LOWER TO 007-010 LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. ALBRECHT

KSEA...GOOD VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CASCADES IS GIVING ONSHORE FLOW TO THE AREA. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT NOW OVER NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
WATERS. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING LATER IN THE WEEK.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REACH 30 TO 40 KNOTS
THERE THIS EVENING...THEN WILL SLOWLY RELAX EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE WATERS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AND A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TUESDAY
EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ADMIRALTY INLET
STARTING AT 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WITH THE
INFLOW THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BEYOND
10 NM FROM THE COASTLINE AS NW PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL RELAX MIDDAY
TUESDAY. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TIL 5 AM
 TUESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TIL
 11 AM TUESDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO
 CAPE SHOALWATER FROM 10 OUT TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KOTX 031746
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1046 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
The ongoing drought combined with high heat and low humidity will
contribute to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest.
Temperatures on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an
increase in clouds. Cooler temperatures and locally breezy winds
are expected mainly Monday through Wednesday following the arrival
of a cold front. Another threat of showers and thunderstorms
arrives next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today: No significant changes to the fcst. Winds will
become gusty this afternoon and evening as pressure gradients
strengthen...most notably near the Cascades (Wenatchee region)
and parts of the Palouse. Otherwise...a weak short- wave trough
over Oregon will move NE and keep the threat of very light showers
in the fcst for all areas outside of the Columbia Basin. Pcpn
amnts should be no more than a trace for most towns due to
unimpressive instability and a very dry sub-cloud layer below
10-15k ft.bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Wildfire smoke will continue to reduce visibilities to
to around 5 miles at times for most TAF sites...especially KMWH
and the Spokane area sites into early afternoon. This is similar
to the last few days. Expect greater restrictions around the Lake
Chelan area...including the town of Chelan. A weak weather disturbance
passing through today and tonight will result in mainly mid and
high level clouds...with a few sprinkles possibly reaching the
surface.bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        93  66  87  59  82  57 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  93  62  87  57  82  54 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        91  57  86  54  82  52 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Lewiston       97  68  95  63  90  61 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       97  60  89  56  86  54 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      90  57  85  51  80  49 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        95  58  86  54  81  52 /   0  20  20  10  10  10
Moses Lake     95  62  92  59  88  58 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      94  69  90  66  88  64 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           96  62  92  58  88  57 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT Tuesday for East Washington
     Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East Washington Northern
     Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East Washington South Central
     Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 031746
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1046 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
The ongoing drought combined with high heat and low humidity will
contribute to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest.
Temperatures on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an
increase in clouds. Cooler temperatures and locally breezy winds
are expected mainly Monday through Wednesday following the arrival
of a cold front. Another threat of showers and thunderstorms
arrives next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today: No significant changes to the fcst. Winds will
become gusty this afternoon and evening as pressure gradients
strengthen...most notably near the Cascades (Wenatchee region)
and parts of the Palouse. Otherwise...a weak short- wave trough
over Oregon will move NE and keep the threat of very light showers
in the fcst for all areas outside of the Columbia Basin. Pcpn
amnts should be no more than a trace for most towns due to
unimpressive instability and a very dry sub-cloud layer below
10-15k ft.bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Wildfire smoke will continue to reduce visibilities to
to around 5 miles at times for most TAF sites...especially KMWH
and the Spokane area sites into early afternoon. This is similar
to the last few days. Expect greater restrictions around the Lake
Chelan area...including the town of Chelan. A weak weather disturbance
passing through today and tonight will result in mainly mid and
high level clouds...with a few sprinkles possibly reaching the
surface.bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        93  66  87  59  82  57 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  93  62  87  57  82  54 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        91  57  86  54  82  52 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Lewiston       97  68  95  63  90  61 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       97  60  89  56  86  54 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      90  57  85  51  80  49 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        95  58  86  54  81  52 /   0  20  20  10  10  10
Moses Lake     95  62  92  59  88  58 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      94  69  90  66  88  64 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           96  62  92  58  88  57 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT Tuesday for East Washington
     Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East Washington Northern
     Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East Washington South Central
     Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 031638
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
938 AM PDT MON AUG  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED NORTH INTO OREGON AND
WASHINGTON SUNDAY WAS STILL LINGERING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...
AND WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN
UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR MORE NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS...AS WELL AS PRODUCE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL PUSH CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA. AFTER A BRIEF
RESPITE LATE IN THE WEEK...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...
STEERING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO OREGON AND WASHINGTON. THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF MOISTURE LINGERS OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE FINALLY
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BIT FASTER ON THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS THAN THE NAM12. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE CLOUDS BREAK AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.

IN THE MEANTIME...WE STILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS AROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS...AND FINALLY HAVE A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING
STRIKES NEAR OAKRIDGE IN THE PAST HOUR. THERE ARE A FEW ECHOES
FARTHER WEST AS WELL. THESE WILL NOT END UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THIS WILL TEND TO PUSH THE
CONVECTION LATER TODAY TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLY LINGERING NEAR THE CASCADE CREST.

THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE B.C. COAST THAT IS ALREADY SAGGING
SOUTH TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MORE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS 500 MB HEIGHTS
FALL INTO THE UPPER 570S. LOOK FOR MORE MORNING LOW CLOUDS INLAND IN
THE NORTH ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WEEK OR SO.
TEMPS WILL COOL INLAND AS WELL...WITH NEAR 80 NORTH BUT STILL MID TO
UPPER 80S NEAR EUGENE.

THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MORE
NORTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW AND MORE MORNING LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY NORTH.
TEMPS INLAND IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY WILL BE 75 TO 80 WITH 80 TO 85
NEAR EUGENE. THIS WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK/FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. WITH DECREASING
ONSHORE FLOW WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 80S
BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH
REGARDS TO ITS TIMING AND STRENGTH. UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...SO WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON CASCADES. AS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH PUSHES INLAND WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE CASCADES. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND LOOK TO FALL BACK
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS. /64
&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS OVERHEAD. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY
POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE LIGHTNING THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS
OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CIGS
CONTINUING THROUGH TUE. HOWEVER...MARINE STRATUS LOOKS TO PUSH UP THE
COLUMBIA RIVER EARLY TUE MORNING AND COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS TO THE METRO TERMINALS.

MVFR STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT AND SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR MARINE
STRATUS LOOKS TO RETURN THIS EVENING...WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBY
POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
MID/HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY SCATTERING THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z TUE AS MARINE STRATUS PUSHES UP THE COLUMBIA
RIVER. /64
&&

.MARINE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING AND COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE LIGHTNING THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY. THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME...BUT NOT EXPECTING THESE TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY. WINDS FURTHER INCREASE ON TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SUSPECT
AN ADVISORY FOR WINDS WILL BE NECESSARY.

MEANWHILE...OVERALL WAVE HEIGHTS DECREASING A FEW FEET TODAY...BUT
GIVEN THAT SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD AND WIND DRIVEN WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA TODAY...BUT AN ADVISOR FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE NEEDED AT A LATER TIME. /64/CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 031638
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
938 AM PDT MON AUG  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED NORTH INTO OREGON AND
WASHINGTON SUNDAY WAS STILL LINGERING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...
AND WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN
UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR MORE NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS...AS WELL AS PRODUCE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL PUSH CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA. AFTER A BRIEF
RESPITE LATE IN THE WEEK...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...
STEERING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO OREGON AND WASHINGTON. THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF MOISTURE LINGERS OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE FINALLY
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BIT FASTER ON THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS THAN THE NAM12. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE CLOUDS BREAK AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.

IN THE MEANTIME...WE STILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS AROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS...AND FINALLY HAVE A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING
STRIKES NEAR OAKRIDGE IN THE PAST HOUR. THERE ARE A FEW ECHOES
FARTHER WEST AS WELL. THESE WILL NOT END UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THIS WILL TEND TO PUSH THE
CONVECTION LATER TODAY TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLY LINGERING NEAR THE CASCADE CREST.

THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE B.C. COAST THAT IS ALREADY SAGGING
SOUTH TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MORE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS 500 MB HEIGHTS
FALL INTO THE UPPER 570S. LOOK FOR MORE MORNING LOW CLOUDS INLAND IN
THE NORTH ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WEEK OR SO.
TEMPS WILL COOL INLAND AS WELL...WITH NEAR 80 NORTH BUT STILL MID TO
UPPER 80S NEAR EUGENE.

THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MORE
NORTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW AND MORE MORNING LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY NORTH.
TEMPS INLAND IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY WILL BE 75 TO 80 WITH 80 TO 85
NEAR EUGENE. THIS WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK/FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. WITH DECREASING
ONSHORE FLOW WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 80S
BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH
REGARDS TO ITS TIMING AND STRENGTH. UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...SO WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON CASCADES. AS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH PUSHES INLAND WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE CASCADES. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND LOOK TO FALL BACK
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS. /64
&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS OVERHEAD. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY
POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE LIGHTNING THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS
OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CIGS
CONTINUING THROUGH TUE. HOWEVER...MARINE STRATUS LOOKS TO PUSH UP THE
COLUMBIA RIVER EARLY TUE MORNING AND COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS TO THE METRO TERMINALS.

MVFR STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT AND SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR MARINE
STRATUS LOOKS TO RETURN THIS EVENING...WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBY
POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
MID/HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY SCATTERING THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z TUE AS MARINE STRATUS PUSHES UP THE COLUMBIA
RIVER. /64
&&

.MARINE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING AND COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE LIGHTNING THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY. THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME...BUT NOT EXPECTING THESE TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY. WINDS FURTHER INCREASE ON TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SUSPECT
AN ADVISORY FOR WINDS WILL BE NECESSARY.

MEANWHILE...OVERALL WAVE HEIGHTS DECREASING A FEW FEET TODAY...BUT
GIVEN THAT SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD AND WIND DRIVEN WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA TODAY...BUT AN ADVISOR FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE NEEDED AT A LATER TIME. /64/CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 031638
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
938 AM PDT MON AUG  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED NORTH INTO OREGON AND
WASHINGTON SUNDAY WAS STILL LINGERING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...
AND WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN
UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR MORE NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS...AS WELL AS PRODUCE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL PUSH CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA. AFTER A BRIEF
RESPITE LATE IN THE WEEK...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...
STEERING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO OREGON AND WASHINGTON. THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF MOISTURE LINGERS OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE FINALLY
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BIT FASTER ON THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS THAN THE NAM12. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE CLOUDS BREAK AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.

IN THE MEANTIME...WE STILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS AROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS...AND FINALLY HAVE A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING
STRIKES NEAR OAKRIDGE IN THE PAST HOUR. THERE ARE A FEW ECHOES
FARTHER WEST AS WELL. THESE WILL NOT END UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THIS WILL TEND TO PUSH THE
CONVECTION LATER TODAY TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLY LINGERING NEAR THE CASCADE CREST.

THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE B.C. COAST THAT IS ALREADY SAGGING
SOUTH TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MORE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS 500 MB HEIGHTS
FALL INTO THE UPPER 570S. LOOK FOR MORE MORNING LOW CLOUDS INLAND IN
THE NORTH ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WEEK OR SO.
TEMPS WILL COOL INLAND AS WELL...WITH NEAR 80 NORTH BUT STILL MID TO
UPPER 80S NEAR EUGENE.

THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MORE
NORTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW AND MORE MORNING LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY NORTH.
TEMPS INLAND IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY WILL BE 75 TO 80 WITH 80 TO 85
NEAR EUGENE. THIS WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK/FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. WITH DECREASING
ONSHORE FLOW WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 80S
BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH
REGARDS TO ITS TIMING AND STRENGTH. UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...SO WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON CASCADES. AS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH PUSHES INLAND WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE CASCADES. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND LOOK TO FALL BACK
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS. /64
&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS OVERHEAD. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY
POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE LIGHTNING THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS
OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CIGS
CONTINUING THROUGH TUE. HOWEVER...MARINE STRATUS LOOKS TO PUSH UP THE
COLUMBIA RIVER EARLY TUE MORNING AND COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS TO THE METRO TERMINALS.

MVFR STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT AND SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR MARINE
STRATUS LOOKS TO RETURN THIS EVENING...WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBY
POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
MID/HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY SCATTERING THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z TUE AS MARINE STRATUS PUSHES UP THE COLUMBIA
RIVER. /64
&&

.MARINE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING AND COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE LIGHTNING THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY. THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME...BUT NOT EXPECTING THESE TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY. WINDS FURTHER INCREASE ON TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SUSPECT
AN ADVISORY FOR WINDS WILL BE NECESSARY.

MEANWHILE...OVERALL WAVE HEIGHTS DECREASING A FEW FEET TODAY...BUT
GIVEN THAT SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD AND WIND DRIVEN WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA TODAY...BUT AN ADVISOR FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE NEEDED AT A LATER TIME. /64/CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 031638
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
938 AM PDT MON AUG  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED NORTH INTO OREGON AND
WASHINGTON SUNDAY WAS STILL LINGERING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...
AND WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN
UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR MORE NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS...AS WELL AS PRODUCE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL PUSH CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA. AFTER A BRIEF
RESPITE LATE IN THE WEEK...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...
STEERING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO OREGON AND WASHINGTON. THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF MOISTURE LINGERS OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE FINALLY
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BIT FASTER ON THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS THAN THE NAM12. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE CLOUDS BREAK AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.

IN THE MEANTIME...WE STILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS AROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS...AND FINALLY HAVE A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING
STRIKES NEAR OAKRIDGE IN THE PAST HOUR. THERE ARE A FEW ECHOES
FARTHER WEST AS WELL. THESE WILL NOT END UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THIS WILL TEND TO PUSH THE
CONVECTION LATER TODAY TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLY LINGERING NEAR THE CASCADE CREST.

THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE B.C. COAST THAT IS ALREADY SAGGING
SOUTH TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MORE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS 500 MB HEIGHTS
FALL INTO THE UPPER 570S. LOOK FOR MORE MORNING LOW CLOUDS INLAND IN
THE NORTH ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WEEK OR SO.
TEMPS WILL COOL INLAND AS WELL...WITH NEAR 80 NORTH BUT STILL MID TO
UPPER 80S NEAR EUGENE.

THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MORE
NORTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW AND MORE MORNING LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY NORTH.
TEMPS INLAND IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY WILL BE 75 TO 80 WITH 80 TO 85
NEAR EUGENE. THIS WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK/FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. WITH DECREASING
ONSHORE FLOW WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 80S
BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH
REGARDS TO ITS TIMING AND STRENGTH. UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...SO WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON CASCADES. AS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH PUSHES INLAND WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE CASCADES. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND LOOK TO FALL BACK
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS. /64
&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS OVERHEAD. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY
POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE LIGHTNING THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS
OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CIGS
CONTINUING THROUGH TUE. HOWEVER...MARINE STRATUS LOOKS TO PUSH UP THE
COLUMBIA RIVER EARLY TUE MORNING AND COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS TO THE METRO TERMINALS.

MVFR STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT AND SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR MARINE
STRATUS LOOKS TO RETURN THIS EVENING...WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBY
POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
MID/HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY SCATTERING THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z TUE AS MARINE STRATUS PUSHES UP THE COLUMBIA
RIVER. /64
&&

.MARINE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING AND COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE LIGHTNING THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY. THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME...BUT NOT EXPECTING THESE TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY. WINDS FURTHER INCREASE ON TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SUSPECT
AN ADVISORY FOR WINDS WILL BE NECESSARY.

MEANWHILE...OVERALL WAVE HEIGHTS DECREASING A FEW FEET TODAY...BUT
GIVEN THAT SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD AND WIND DRIVEN WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA TODAY...BUT AN ADVISOR FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE NEEDED AT A LATER TIME. /64/CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 031600
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...BUT WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
STRATUS BLANKETED MUCH OF THE COAST THIS MORNING WHILE THE
INTERIOR /EAST OF THE OLYMPIC RANGE/ WAS BLANKETED BY MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES FALLING FROM THE
ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS. IN CONTRAST...SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE
OLYMPICS...MUCH OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR. ANTICIPATE CLEARING FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING...WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COAST...WHERE STRATUS
WILL PERSIST OVER SOME AREAS.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVER OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY TODAY. THE MAIN IMPACT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON OUR
WEATHER WILL BE TO STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS.

LOW CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT
THEN  PUSH DOWN THE STRAIT AND THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP
OVERNIGHT. STRATUS WILL LIKELY FILL IN ACROSS MOST THE LOWLANDS
WITH A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BE
LOWER AND THE INCREASED MARINE INFLUENCE SHOULD HOLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO THE 70S OVER THE INTERIOR...NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY
AUGUST. THIS PATTERN WILL REPEAT ON WEDNESDAY. MERCER/05

.LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW SHOULD START TO MIGRATE EWD THURSDAY WITH WEAK
RIDGING ON FRIDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE LIGHTER WITH LESS CLOUDS
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MAY REACH THE LOW 80S
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

MODELS DISAGREE ON THE PATTERN THIS NEXT WEEKEND. SOLUTIONS RANGE
FROM A WEAK AND DRY SPLIT TROUGH TO A MORE CONSOLIDATED LOW. MOST
SOLUTIONS SHOW SOME QPF OVER THE PAC NW SO WILL LEAVE THE SHOWERS
IN  THE FORECAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROBABLY PICK UP WITH
MODERATING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING SW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE COAST TODAY...THEN MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. THE MAIN EFFECT
OF THE FRONT WILL BE TO SPREAD A DEEP STRATUS LAYER INLAND TONIGHT
AS WELL AS INCREASE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRIP OF SHALLOW
STRATUS ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AROUND PORT
ANGELES...AND A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS FROM THE WESTERN
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST TO WELL
OFFSHORE. IN THE INTERIOR THERE IS JUST ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS. EXPECT THE STRATUS IN THE STRAIT TO BURN OFF...BUT THE
STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THAT AREA. ACROSS
THE INTERIOR...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...REMNANTS OF OLD
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS A FRONT NOW OVER
NW VANCOUVER ISLAND SWINGS SE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE INCREASE IN
ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT STRATUS WITH BASES 040-050 TO SPREAD INLAND
THEN BASES WILL LOWER TO AROUND 020 OVERNIGHT. STRATUS BASES AROUND
010-015 TODAY AND THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY LOWER TO 007-010 LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. ALBRECHT

KSEA...GOOD VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CASCADES IS GIVING ONSHORE FLOW TO THE AREA. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT NOW OVER NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
WATERS. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING LATER IN THE WEEK.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REACH 30 TO 40 KNOTS
THERE THIS EVENING...THEN WILL SLOWLY RELAX EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE WATERS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AND A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TUESDAY
EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ADMIRALTY INLET
STARTING AT 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WITH THE
INFLOW THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BEYOND
10 NM FROM THE COASTLINE AS NW PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL RELAX MIDDAY
TUESDAY. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TIL 5 AM
 TUESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TIL
 11 AM TUESDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO
 CAPE SHOALWATER FROM 10 OUT TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KSEW 031600
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...BUT WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
STRATUS BLANKETED MUCH OF THE COAST THIS MORNING WHILE THE
INTERIOR /EAST OF THE OLYMPIC RANGE/ WAS BLANKETED BY MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES FALLING FROM THE
ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS. IN CONTRAST...SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE
OLYMPICS...MUCH OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR. ANTICIPATE CLEARING FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING...WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COAST...WHERE STRATUS
WILL PERSIST OVER SOME AREAS.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVER OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY TODAY. THE MAIN IMPACT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON OUR
WEATHER WILL BE TO STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS.

LOW CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT
THEN  PUSH DOWN THE STRAIT AND THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP
OVERNIGHT. STRATUS WILL LIKELY FILL IN ACROSS MOST THE LOWLANDS
WITH A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BE
LOWER AND THE INCREASED MARINE INFLUENCE SHOULD HOLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO THE 70S OVER THE INTERIOR...NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY
AUGUST. THIS PATTERN WILL REPEAT ON WEDNESDAY. MERCER/05

.LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW SHOULD START TO MIGRATE EWD THURSDAY WITH WEAK
RIDGING ON FRIDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE LIGHTER WITH LESS CLOUDS
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MAY REACH THE LOW 80S
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

MODELS DISAGREE ON THE PATTERN THIS NEXT WEEKEND. SOLUTIONS RANGE
FROM A WEAK AND DRY SPLIT TROUGH TO A MORE CONSOLIDATED LOW. MOST
SOLUTIONS SHOW SOME QPF OVER THE PAC NW SO WILL LEAVE THE SHOWERS
IN  THE FORECAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROBABLY PICK UP WITH
MODERATING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING SW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE COAST TODAY...THEN MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. THE MAIN EFFECT
OF THE FRONT WILL BE TO SPREAD A DEEP STRATUS LAYER INLAND TONIGHT
AS WELL AS INCREASE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRIP OF SHALLOW
STRATUS ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AROUND PORT
ANGELES...AND A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS FROM THE WESTERN
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST TO WELL
OFFSHORE. IN THE INTERIOR THERE IS JUST ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS. EXPECT THE STRATUS IN THE STRAIT TO BURN OFF...BUT THE
STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THAT AREA. ACROSS
THE INTERIOR...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...REMNANTS OF OLD
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS A FRONT NOW OVER
NW VANCOUVER ISLAND SWINGS SE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE INCREASE IN
ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT STRATUS WITH BASES 040-050 TO SPREAD INLAND
THEN BASES WILL LOWER TO AROUND 020 OVERNIGHT. STRATUS BASES AROUND
010-015 TODAY AND THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY LOWER TO 007-010 LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. ALBRECHT

KSEA...GOOD VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CASCADES IS GIVING ONSHORE FLOW TO THE AREA. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT NOW OVER NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
WATERS. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING LATER IN THE WEEK.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REACH 30 TO 40 KNOTS
THERE THIS EVENING...THEN WILL SLOWLY RELAX EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE WATERS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AND A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TUESDAY
EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ADMIRALTY INLET
STARTING AT 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WITH THE
INFLOW THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BEYOND
10 NM FROM THE COASTLINE AS NW PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL RELAX MIDDAY
TUESDAY. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TIL 5 AM
 TUESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TIL
 11 AM TUESDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO
 CAPE SHOALWATER FROM 10 OUT TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KSEW 031600
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...BUT WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
STRATUS BLANKETED MUCH OF THE COAST THIS MORNING WHILE THE
INTERIOR /EAST OF THE OLYMPIC RANGE/ WAS BLANKETED BY MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES FALLING FROM THE
ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS. IN CONTRAST...SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE
OLYMPICS...MUCH OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR. ANTICIPATE CLEARING FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING...WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COAST...WHERE STRATUS
WILL PERSIST OVER SOME AREAS.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVER OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY TODAY. THE MAIN IMPACT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON OUR
WEATHER WILL BE TO STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS.

LOW CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT
THEN  PUSH DOWN THE STRAIT AND THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP
OVERNIGHT. STRATUS WILL LIKELY FILL IN ACROSS MOST THE LOWLANDS
WITH A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BE
LOWER AND THE INCREASED MARINE INFLUENCE SHOULD HOLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO THE 70S OVER THE INTERIOR...NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY
AUGUST. THIS PATTERN WILL REPEAT ON WEDNESDAY. MERCER/05

.LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW SHOULD START TO MIGRATE EWD THURSDAY WITH WEAK
RIDGING ON FRIDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE LIGHTER WITH LESS CLOUDS
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MAY REACH THE LOW 80S
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

MODELS DISAGREE ON THE PATTERN THIS NEXT WEEKEND. SOLUTIONS RANGE
FROM A WEAK AND DRY SPLIT TROUGH TO A MORE CONSOLIDATED LOW. MOST
SOLUTIONS SHOW SOME QPF OVER THE PAC NW SO WILL LEAVE THE SHOWERS
IN  THE FORECAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROBABLY PICK UP WITH
MODERATING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING SW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE COAST TODAY...THEN MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. THE MAIN EFFECT
OF THE FRONT WILL BE TO SPREAD A DEEP STRATUS LAYER INLAND TONIGHT
AS WELL AS INCREASE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRIP OF SHALLOW
STRATUS ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AROUND PORT
ANGELES...AND A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS FROM THE WESTERN
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST TO WELL
OFFSHORE. IN THE INTERIOR THERE IS JUST ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS. EXPECT THE STRATUS IN THE STRAIT TO BURN OFF...BUT THE
STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THAT AREA. ACROSS
THE INTERIOR...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...REMNANTS OF OLD
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS A FRONT NOW OVER
NW VANCOUVER ISLAND SWINGS SE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE INCREASE IN
ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT STRATUS WITH BASES 040-050 TO SPREAD INLAND
THEN BASES WILL LOWER TO AROUND 020 OVERNIGHT. STRATUS BASES AROUND
010-015 TODAY AND THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY LOWER TO 007-010 LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. ALBRECHT

KSEA...GOOD VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CASCADES IS GIVING ONSHORE FLOW TO THE AREA. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT NOW OVER NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
WATERS. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING LATER IN THE WEEK.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REACH 30 TO 40 KNOTS
THERE THIS EVENING...THEN WILL SLOWLY RELAX EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE WATERS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AND A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TUESDAY
EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ADMIRALTY INLET
STARTING AT 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WITH THE
INFLOW THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BEYOND
10 NM FROM THE COASTLINE AS NW PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL RELAX MIDDAY
TUESDAY. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TIL 5 AM
 TUESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TIL
 11 AM TUESDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO
 CAPE SHOALWATER FROM 10 OUT TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KSEW 031600
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...BUT WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
STRATUS BLANKETED MUCH OF THE COAST THIS MORNING WHILE THE
INTERIOR /EAST OF THE OLYMPIC RANGE/ WAS BLANKETED BY MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES FALLING FROM THE
ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS. IN CONTRAST...SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE
OLYMPICS...MUCH OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR. ANTICIPATE CLEARING FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING...WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COAST...WHERE STRATUS
WILL PERSIST OVER SOME AREAS.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVER OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY TODAY. THE MAIN IMPACT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON OUR
WEATHER WILL BE TO STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS.

LOW CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT
THEN  PUSH DOWN THE STRAIT AND THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP
OVERNIGHT. STRATUS WILL LIKELY FILL IN ACROSS MOST THE LOWLANDS
WITH A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BE
LOWER AND THE INCREASED MARINE INFLUENCE SHOULD HOLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO THE 70S OVER THE INTERIOR...NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY
AUGUST. THIS PATTERN WILL REPEAT ON WEDNESDAY. MERCER/05

.LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW SHOULD START TO MIGRATE EWD THURSDAY WITH WEAK
RIDGING ON FRIDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE LIGHTER WITH LESS CLOUDS
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MAY REACH THE LOW 80S
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

MODELS DISAGREE ON THE PATTERN THIS NEXT WEEKEND. SOLUTIONS RANGE
FROM A WEAK AND DRY SPLIT TROUGH TO A MORE CONSOLIDATED LOW. MOST
SOLUTIONS SHOW SOME QPF OVER THE PAC NW SO WILL LEAVE THE SHOWERS
IN  THE FORECAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROBABLY PICK UP WITH
MODERATING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING SW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE COAST TODAY...THEN MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. THE MAIN EFFECT
OF THE FRONT WILL BE TO SPREAD A DEEP STRATUS LAYER INLAND TONIGHT
AS WELL AS INCREASE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRIP OF SHALLOW
STRATUS ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AROUND PORT
ANGELES...AND A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS FROM THE WESTERN
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST TO WELL
OFFSHORE. IN THE INTERIOR THERE IS JUST ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS. EXPECT THE STRATUS IN THE STRAIT TO BURN OFF...BUT THE
STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THAT AREA. ACROSS
THE INTERIOR...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...REMNANTS OF OLD
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS A FRONT NOW OVER
NW VANCOUVER ISLAND SWINGS SE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE INCREASE IN
ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT STRATUS WITH BASES 040-050 TO SPREAD INLAND
THEN BASES WILL LOWER TO AROUND 020 OVERNIGHT. STRATUS BASES AROUND
010-015 TODAY AND THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY LOWER TO 007-010 LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. ALBRECHT

KSEA...GOOD VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CASCADES IS GIVING ONSHORE FLOW TO THE AREA. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT NOW OVER NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
WATERS. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING LATER IN THE WEEK.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REACH 30 TO 40 KNOTS
THERE THIS EVENING...THEN WILL SLOWLY RELAX EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE WATERS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AND A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TUESDAY
EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ADMIRALTY INLET
STARTING AT 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WITH THE
INFLOW THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BEYOND
10 NM FROM THE COASTLINE AS NW PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL RELAX MIDDAY
TUESDAY. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TIL 5 AM
 TUESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TIL
 11 AM TUESDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO
 CAPE SHOALWATER FROM 10 OUT TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KOTX 031345
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
645 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
The ongoing drought combined with high heat and low humidity will
contribute to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest.
Temperatures on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an
increase in clouds. Cooler temperatures and locally breezy winds
are expected mainly Monday through Wednesday following the arrival
of a cold front. Another threat of showers and thunderstorms
arrives next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A quick update this morning to upgrade the Fire Weather Watch to a
Red Flag Warning. Winds are expected to be breezy on the
Waterville Plateau and out into southwestern portion of Grant
County, so these locations have also been included in the Warning.
Strongest winds are expected during the late afternoon and evening
hours. Similar conditions can be expected Tuesday afternoon as
well. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Wildfire smoke will continue to reduce visibilities to
between 3-9 miles over much of the region...with greater
restrictions around Chelan. A weak weather disturbance passing
through today and tonight will result in mainly mid and high level
clouds...with a few sprinkles possibly reaching the surface. /SVH



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        93  66  87  59  82  57 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  94  62  87  57  82  54 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        92  57  86  54  82  52 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Lewiston       97  68  95  63  90  61 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       97  60  89  56  86  54 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      90  57  85  51  80  49 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        95  58  86  54  81  52 /   0  20  20  10  10  10
Moses Lake     97  62  92  59  88  58 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      94  69  90  66  88  64 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           96  62  92  58  88  57 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning from Noon today to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for East
     Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East
     Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 031345
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
645 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
The ongoing drought combined with high heat and low humidity will
contribute to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest.
Temperatures on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an
increase in clouds. Cooler temperatures and locally breezy winds
are expected mainly Monday through Wednesday following the arrival
of a cold front. Another threat of showers and thunderstorms
arrives next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A quick update this morning to upgrade the Fire Weather Watch to a
Red Flag Warning. Winds are expected to be breezy on the
Waterville Plateau and out into southwestern portion of Grant
County, so these locations have also been included in the Warning.
Strongest winds are expected during the late afternoon and evening
hours. Similar conditions can be expected Tuesday afternoon as
well. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Wildfire smoke will continue to reduce visibilities to
between 3-9 miles over much of the region...with greater
restrictions around Chelan. A weak weather disturbance passing
through today and tonight will result in mainly mid and high level
clouds...with a few sprinkles possibly reaching the surface. /SVH



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        93  66  87  59  82  57 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  94  62  87  57  82  54 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        92  57  86  54  82  52 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Lewiston       97  68  95  63  90  61 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       97  60  89  56  86  54 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      90  57  85  51  80  49 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        95  58  86  54  81  52 /   0  20  20  10  10  10
Moses Lake     97  62  92  59  88  58 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      94  69  90  66  88  64 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           96  62  92  58  88  57 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning from Noon today to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for East
     Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East
     Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 031142
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
442 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
The ongoing drought combined with high heat and low humidity will
contribute to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest.
Temperatures on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an
increase in clouds. Cooler temperatures and locally breezy winds
are expected mainly Monday through Wednesday following the arrival
of a cold front. Another threat of showers and thunderstorms
arrives next weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight: An upper level ridge of high pressure across
the Rockies will keep the region under southerly flow through tonight.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows a shortwave disturbance
pushing across northern CA and into OR. Moisture at mid levels
will increase out ahead of this wave, but models do not show much
cooling taking place aloft to result in any substantial steepening
of the mid level lapse rates. The weak instability is resulting in
shallow convection with not enough charge separation to generate
lightning. This trend will continue as the disturbance pushes
north through this morning and into the afternoon. Thunderstorms
were removed from the forecast for the most part. The only
exception is over the higher mountain peaks in ID near the border
of MT. All other areas are expected to see plenty of mid and high
level cloud cover with passing very light showers or sprinkles.

Winds will also increase through the Cascade gaps today. Low
levels remain very dry and this will not change even with the
increasing moisture at mid levels. Although temperatures will be
cooler today compared to over the weekend, relative humidity will
be at critical levels with rapid fire spread possible as the winds
increase. The Fire Weather Watch for the central and northern
Cascade valleys remains valid, which covers both Monday and
Tuesday afternoons.

Tuesday: The upper level low pressure system currently spinning
over northwest BC early this morning will drop into central BC. A
cold front will also sweep across eastern WA and is denoted by the
darkening on the water vapor imagery northwest of Vancouver
Island. The darkening on water vapor is indicative of more dry air
approaching the region behind the front. This dry air will likely
keep much of the region free of showers. Best chances will be
near the Canadian border. Winds will continue to be breezy through
the Cascade gaps on Tuesday as well. /SVH

Tuesday night through Monday...The models are showing some differences
out towards the end of the run. But mostly they are in very good
agreement showing an upper level low moving through southern B.C.
Tuesday through Thursday. Then another low pressure system looks
to move into B.C. again Saturday and Sunday.

Tuesday night through Thursday...The upper level low will track
through the region. Lingering moisture and weak instability will
combine with up-sloping flow for a low end chance of showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday evening. Behind the front much drier air
will move into the region. This will put a cap on any additional
convection and all the chances for showers were taken out of the
forecast. A second wave will move through the low Wednesday night
and Thursday. Again this wave will be moisture starved and models
are showing little if any instability south of the Canadian
border. As such pops were lowered and any chance for thunderstorms
were taken out as well.

There is much better confidence in temperatures cooling off into
the low to mid 80s on Wednesday and upper 70s to low 80s on
Thursday. This may be as much as 10 degrees below normal on
Thursday. Southwest winds will be on the increase as the surface
gradient across the Cascades tightens up. Winds speeds of 10-20
mph with gusts 20-25 mph will be coming through the Cascade gaps
and likely on to the Waterville Plateau and into the deep Basin.
As mentioned earlier much drier air is progged to move in behind
the front dropping relative humidity down into the teen to lower
20s. This combination will be a good set up for fire weather
concerns Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday night through early Saturday a transient ridge of high
pressure will track through the region resulting in a short lived
warm up with another round of low relative humidity.

Saturday night through Monday...the models begin to break down on
the timing of the next upper level low. The GFS/Canadian model
bring the low through the quickest as an open wave which would
give the northern zones another glancing blow of showers and
possibly thunderstorms. The ECMWF is much slower, deeper and
further south. This pattern would be much wetter and cooler for
the region and is a perfect set up for thunderstorms. Consensus is
to lean in direction of the faster moving system. This would
result in isolated to scattered showers near the mountains. And
continued warm and dry for the remainder of the forecast area.
Tobin


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Wildfire smoke will continue to reduce visibilities to
between 3-9 miles over much of the region...with greater
restrictions around Chelan. A weak weather disturbance passing
through today and tonight will result in mainly mid and high level
clouds...with a few sprinkles possibly reaching the surface. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        93  66  87  59  82  57 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  94  62  87  57  82  54 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        92  57  86  54  82  52 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Lewiston       97  68  95  63  90  61 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       97  60  89  56  86  54 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      90  57  85  51  80  49 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        95  58  86  54  81  52 /   0  20  20  10  10  10
Moses Lake     97  62  92  59  88  58 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      94  69  90  66  88  64 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           96  62  92  58  88  57 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Noon PDT today through Tuesday evening
     for East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East
     Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 031142
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
442 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
The ongoing drought combined with high heat and low humidity will
contribute to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest.
Temperatures on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an
increase in clouds. Cooler temperatures and locally breezy winds
are expected mainly Monday through Wednesday following the arrival
of a cold front. Another threat of showers and thunderstorms
arrives next weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight: An upper level ridge of high pressure across
the Rockies will keep the region under southerly flow through tonight.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows a shortwave disturbance
pushing across northern CA and into OR. Moisture at mid levels
will increase out ahead of this wave, but models do not show much
cooling taking place aloft to result in any substantial steepening
of the mid level lapse rates. The weak instability is resulting in
shallow convection with not enough charge separation to generate
lightning. This trend will continue as the disturbance pushes
north through this morning and into the afternoon. Thunderstorms
were removed from the forecast for the most part. The only
exception is over the higher mountain peaks in ID near the border
of MT. All other areas are expected to see plenty of mid and high
level cloud cover with passing very light showers or sprinkles.

Winds will also increase through the Cascade gaps today. Low
levels remain very dry and this will not change even with the
increasing moisture at mid levels. Although temperatures will be
cooler today compared to over the weekend, relative humidity will
be at critical levels with rapid fire spread possible as the winds
increase. The Fire Weather Watch for the central and northern
Cascade valleys remains valid, which covers both Monday and
Tuesday afternoons.

Tuesday: The upper level low pressure system currently spinning
over northwest BC early this morning will drop into central BC. A
cold front will also sweep across eastern WA and is denoted by the
darkening on the water vapor imagery northwest of Vancouver
Island. The darkening on water vapor is indicative of more dry air
approaching the region behind the front. This dry air will likely
keep much of the region free of showers. Best chances will be
near the Canadian border. Winds will continue to be breezy through
the Cascade gaps on Tuesday as well. /SVH

Tuesday night through Monday...The models are showing some differences
out towards the end of the run. But mostly they are in very good
agreement showing an upper level low moving through southern B.C.
Tuesday through Thursday. Then another low pressure system looks
to move into B.C. again Saturday and Sunday.

Tuesday night through Thursday...The upper level low will track
through the region. Lingering moisture and weak instability will
combine with up-sloping flow for a low end chance of showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday evening. Behind the front much drier air
will move into the region. This will put a cap on any additional
convection and all the chances for showers were taken out of the
forecast. A second wave will move through the low Wednesday night
and Thursday. Again this wave will be moisture starved and models
are showing little if any instability south of the Canadian
border. As such pops were lowered and any chance for thunderstorms
were taken out as well.

There is much better confidence in temperatures cooling off into
the low to mid 80s on Wednesday and upper 70s to low 80s on
Thursday. This may be as much as 10 degrees below normal on
Thursday. Southwest winds will be on the increase as the surface
gradient across the Cascades tightens up. Winds speeds of 10-20
mph with gusts 20-25 mph will be coming through the Cascade gaps
and likely on to the Waterville Plateau and into the deep Basin.
As mentioned earlier much drier air is progged to move in behind
the front dropping relative humidity down into the teen to lower
20s. This combination will be a good set up for fire weather
concerns Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday night through early Saturday a transient ridge of high
pressure will track through the region resulting in a short lived
warm up with another round of low relative humidity.

Saturday night through Monday...the models begin to break down on
the timing of the next upper level low. The GFS/Canadian model
bring the low through the quickest as an open wave which would
give the northern zones another glancing blow of showers and
possibly thunderstorms. The ECMWF is much slower, deeper and
further south. This pattern would be much wetter and cooler for
the region and is a perfect set up for thunderstorms. Consensus is
to lean in direction of the faster moving system. This would
result in isolated to scattered showers near the mountains. And
continued warm and dry for the remainder of the forecast area.
Tobin


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Wildfire smoke will continue to reduce visibilities to
between 3-9 miles over much of the region...with greater
restrictions around Chelan. A weak weather disturbance passing
through today and tonight will result in mainly mid and high level
clouds...with a few sprinkles possibly reaching the surface. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        93  66  87  59  82  57 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  94  62  87  57  82  54 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        92  57  86  54  82  52 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Lewiston       97  68  95  63  90  61 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       97  60  89  56  86  54 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      90  57  85  51  80  49 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        95  58  86  54  81  52 /   0  20  20  10  10  10
Moses Lake     97  62  92  59  88  58 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      94  69  90  66  88  64 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           96  62  92  58  88  57 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Noon PDT today through Tuesday evening
     for East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East
     Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 031142
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
442 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
The ongoing drought combined with high heat and low humidity will
contribute to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest.
Temperatures on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an
increase in clouds. Cooler temperatures and locally breezy winds
are expected mainly Monday through Wednesday following the arrival
of a cold front. Another threat of showers and thunderstorms
arrives next weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight: An upper level ridge of high pressure across
the Rockies will keep the region under southerly flow through tonight.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows a shortwave disturbance
pushing across northern CA and into OR. Moisture at mid levels
will increase out ahead of this wave, but models do not show much
cooling taking place aloft to result in any substantial steepening
of the mid level lapse rates. The weak instability is resulting in
shallow convection with not enough charge separation to generate
lightning. This trend will continue as the disturbance pushes
north through this morning and into the afternoon. Thunderstorms
were removed from the forecast for the most part. The only
exception is over the higher mountain peaks in ID near the border
of MT. All other areas are expected to see plenty of mid and high
level cloud cover with passing very light showers or sprinkles.

Winds will also increase through the Cascade gaps today. Low
levels remain very dry and this will not change even with the
increasing moisture at mid levels. Although temperatures will be
cooler today compared to over the weekend, relative humidity will
be at critical levels with rapid fire spread possible as the winds
increase. The Fire Weather Watch for the central and northern
Cascade valleys remains valid, which covers both Monday and
Tuesday afternoons.

Tuesday: The upper level low pressure system currently spinning
over northwest BC early this morning will drop into central BC. A
cold front will also sweep across eastern WA and is denoted by the
darkening on the water vapor imagery northwest of Vancouver
Island. The darkening on water vapor is indicative of more dry air
approaching the region behind the front. This dry air will likely
keep much of the region free of showers. Best chances will be
near the Canadian border. Winds will continue to be breezy through
the Cascade gaps on Tuesday as well. /SVH

Tuesday night through Monday...The models are showing some differences
out towards the end of the run. But mostly they are in very good
agreement showing an upper level low moving through southern B.C.
Tuesday through Thursday. Then another low pressure system looks
to move into B.C. again Saturday and Sunday.

Tuesday night through Thursday...The upper level low will track
through the region. Lingering moisture and weak instability will
combine with up-sloping flow for a low end chance of showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday evening. Behind the front much drier air
will move into the region. This will put a cap on any additional
convection and all the chances for showers were taken out of the
forecast. A second wave will move through the low Wednesday night
and Thursday. Again this wave will be moisture starved and models
are showing little if any instability south of the Canadian
border. As such pops were lowered and any chance for thunderstorms
were taken out as well.

There is much better confidence in temperatures cooling off into
the low to mid 80s on Wednesday and upper 70s to low 80s on
Thursday. This may be as much as 10 degrees below normal on
Thursday. Southwest winds will be on the increase as the surface
gradient across the Cascades tightens up. Winds speeds of 10-20
mph with gusts 20-25 mph will be coming through the Cascade gaps
and likely on to the Waterville Plateau and into the deep Basin.
As mentioned earlier much drier air is progged to move in behind
the front dropping relative humidity down into the teen to lower
20s. This combination will be a good set up for fire weather
concerns Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday night through early Saturday a transient ridge of high
pressure will track through the region resulting in a short lived
warm up with another round of low relative humidity.

Saturday night through Monday...the models begin to break down on
the timing of the next upper level low. The GFS/Canadian model
bring the low through the quickest as an open wave which would
give the northern zones another glancing blow of showers and
possibly thunderstorms. The ECMWF is much slower, deeper and
further south. This pattern would be much wetter and cooler for
the region and is a perfect set up for thunderstorms. Consensus is
to lean in direction of the faster moving system. This would
result in isolated to scattered showers near the mountains. And
continued warm and dry for the remainder of the forecast area.
Tobin


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Wildfire smoke will continue to reduce visibilities to
between 3-9 miles over much of the region...with greater
restrictions around Chelan. A weak weather disturbance passing
through today and tonight will result in mainly mid and high level
clouds...with a few sprinkles possibly reaching the surface. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        93  66  87  59  82  57 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  94  62  87  57  82  54 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        92  57  86  54  82  52 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Lewiston       97  68  95  63  90  61 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       97  60  89  56  86  54 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      90  57  85  51  80  49 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        95  58  86  54  81  52 /   0  20  20  10  10  10
Moses Lake     97  62  92  59  88  58 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      94  69  90  66  88  64 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           96  62  92  58  88  57 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Noon PDT today through Tuesday evening
     for East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East
     Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 031142
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
442 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
The ongoing drought combined with high heat and low humidity will
contribute to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest.
Temperatures on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an
increase in clouds. Cooler temperatures and locally breezy winds
are expected mainly Monday through Wednesday following the arrival
of a cold front. Another threat of showers and thunderstorms
arrives next weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight: An upper level ridge of high pressure across
the Rockies will keep the region under southerly flow through tonight.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows a shortwave disturbance
pushing across northern CA and into OR. Moisture at mid levels
will increase out ahead of this wave, but models do not show much
cooling taking place aloft to result in any substantial steepening
of the mid level lapse rates. The weak instability is resulting in
shallow convection with not enough charge separation to generate
lightning. This trend will continue as the disturbance pushes
north through this morning and into the afternoon. Thunderstorms
were removed from the forecast for the most part. The only
exception is over the higher mountain peaks in ID near the border
of MT. All other areas are expected to see plenty of mid and high
level cloud cover with passing very light showers or sprinkles.

Winds will also increase through the Cascade gaps today. Low
levels remain very dry and this will not change even with the
increasing moisture at mid levels. Although temperatures will be
cooler today compared to over the weekend, relative humidity will
be at critical levels with rapid fire spread possible as the winds
increase. The Fire Weather Watch for the central and northern
Cascade valleys remains valid, which covers both Monday and
Tuesday afternoons.

Tuesday: The upper level low pressure system currently spinning
over northwest BC early this morning will drop into central BC. A
cold front will also sweep across eastern WA and is denoted by the
darkening on the water vapor imagery northwest of Vancouver
Island. The darkening on water vapor is indicative of more dry air
approaching the region behind the front. This dry air will likely
keep much of the region free of showers. Best chances will be
near the Canadian border. Winds will continue to be breezy through
the Cascade gaps on Tuesday as well. /SVH

Tuesday night through Monday...The models are showing some differences
out towards the end of the run. But mostly they are in very good
agreement showing an upper level low moving through southern B.C.
Tuesday through Thursday. Then another low pressure system looks
to move into B.C. again Saturday and Sunday.

Tuesday night through Thursday...The upper level low will track
through the region. Lingering moisture and weak instability will
combine with up-sloping flow for a low end chance of showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday evening. Behind the front much drier air
will move into the region. This will put a cap on any additional
convection and all the chances for showers were taken out of the
forecast. A second wave will move through the low Wednesday night
and Thursday. Again this wave will be moisture starved and models
are showing little if any instability south of the Canadian
border. As such pops were lowered and any chance for thunderstorms
were taken out as well.

There is much better confidence in temperatures cooling off into
the low to mid 80s on Wednesday and upper 70s to low 80s on
Thursday. This may be as much as 10 degrees below normal on
Thursday. Southwest winds will be on the increase as the surface
gradient across the Cascades tightens up. Winds speeds of 10-20
mph with gusts 20-25 mph will be coming through the Cascade gaps
and likely on to the Waterville Plateau and into the deep Basin.
As mentioned earlier much drier air is progged to move in behind
the front dropping relative humidity down into the teen to lower
20s. This combination will be a good set up for fire weather
concerns Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday night through early Saturday a transient ridge of high
pressure will track through the region resulting in a short lived
warm up with another round of low relative humidity.

Saturday night through Monday...the models begin to break down on
the timing of the next upper level low. The GFS/Canadian model
bring the low through the quickest as an open wave which would
give the northern zones another glancing blow of showers and
possibly thunderstorms. The ECMWF is much slower, deeper and
further south. This pattern would be much wetter and cooler for
the region and is a perfect set up for thunderstorms. Consensus is
to lean in direction of the faster moving system. This would
result in isolated to scattered showers near the mountains. And
continued warm and dry for the remainder of the forecast area.
Tobin


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Wildfire smoke will continue to reduce visibilities to
between 3-9 miles over much of the region...with greater
restrictions around Chelan. A weak weather disturbance passing
through today and tonight will result in mainly mid and high level
clouds...with a few sprinkles possibly reaching the surface. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        93  66  87  59  82  57 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  94  62  87  57  82  54 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        92  57  86  54  82  52 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Lewiston       97  68  95  63  90  61 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       97  60  89  56  86  54 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      90  57  85  51  80  49 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        95  58  86  54  81  52 /   0  20  20  10  10  10
Moses Lake     97  62  92  59  88  58 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      94  69  90  66  88  64 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           96  62  92  58  88  57 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Noon PDT today through Tuesday evening
     for East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East
     Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 031142
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
442 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
The ongoing drought combined with high heat and low humidity will
contribute to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest.
Temperatures on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an
increase in clouds. Cooler temperatures and locally breezy winds
are expected mainly Monday through Wednesday following the arrival
of a cold front. Another threat of showers and thunderstorms
arrives next weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight: An upper level ridge of high pressure across
the Rockies will keep the region under southerly flow through tonight.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows a shortwave disturbance
pushing across northern CA and into OR. Moisture at mid levels
will increase out ahead of this wave, but models do not show much
cooling taking place aloft to result in any substantial steepening
of the mid level lapse rates. The weak instability is resulting in
shallow convection with not enough charge separation to generate
lightning. This trend will continue as the disturbance pushes
north through this morning and into the afternoon. Thunderstorms
were removed from the forecast for the most part. The only
exception is over the higher mountain peaks in ID near the border
of MT. All other areas are expected to see plenty of mid and high
level cloud cover with passing very light showers or sprinkles.

Winds will also increase through the Cascade gaps today. Low
levels remain very dry and this will not change even with the
increasing moisture at mid levels. Although temperatures will be
cooler today compared to over the weekend, relative humidity will
be at critical levels with rapid fire spread possible as the winds
increase. The Fire Weather Watch for the central and northern
Cascade valleys remains valid, which covers both Monday and
Tuesday afternoons.

Tuesday: The upper level low pressure system currently spinning
over northwest BC early this morning will drop into central BC. A
cold front will also sweep across eastern WA and is denoted by the
darkening on the water vapor imagery northwest of Vancouver
Island. The darkening on water vapor is indicative of more dry air
approaching the region behind the front. This dry air will likely
keep much of the region free of showers. Best chances will be
near the Canadian border. Winds will continue to be breezy through
the Cascade gaps on Tuesday as well. /SVH

Tuesday night through Monday...The models are showing some differences
out towards the end of the run. But mostly they are in very good
agreement showing an upper level low moving through southern B.C.
Tuesday through Thursday. Then another low pressure system looks
to move into B.C. again Saturday and Sunday.

Tuesday night through Thursday...The upper level low will track
through the region. Lingering moisture and weak instability will
combine with up-sloping flow for a low end chance of showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday evening. Behind the front much drier air
will move into the region. This will put a cap on any additional
convection and all the chances for showers were taken out of the
forecast. A second wave will move through the low Wednesday night
and Thursday. Again this wave will be moisture starved and models
are showing little if any instability south of the Canadian
border. As such pops were lowered and any chance for thunderstorms
were taken out as well.

There is much better confidence in temperatures cooling off into
the low to mid 80s on Wednesday and upper 70s to low 80s on
Thursday. This may be as much as 10 degrees below normal on
Thursday. Southwest winds will be on the increase as the surface
gradient across the Cascades tightens up. Winds speeds of 10-20
mph with gusts 20-25 mph will be coming through the Cascade gaps
and likely on to the Waterville Plateau and into the deep Basin.
As mentioned earlier much drier air is progged to move in behind
the front dropping relative humidity down into the teen to lower
20s. This combination will be a good set up for fire weather
concerns Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday night through early Saturday a transient ridge of high
pressure will track through the region resulting in a short lived
warm up with another round of low relative humidity.

Saturday night through Monday...the models begin to break down on
the timing of the next upper level low. The GFS/Canadian model
bring the low through the quickest as an open wave which would
give the northern zones another glancing blow of showers and
possibly thunderstorms. The ECMWF is much slower, deeper and
further south. This pattern would be much wetter and cooler for
the region and is a perfect set up for thunderstorms. Consensus is
to lean in direction of the faster moving system. This would
result in isolated to scattered showers near the mountains. And
continued warm and dry for the remainder of the forecast area.
Tobin


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Wildfire smoke will continue to reduce visibilities to
between 3-9 miles over much of the region...with greater
restrictions around Chelan. A weak weather disturbance passing
through today and tonight will result in mainly mid and high level
clouds...with a few sprinkles possibly reaching the surface. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        93  66  87  59  82  57 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  94  62  87  57  82  54 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        92  57  86  54  82  52 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Lewiston       97  68  95  63  90  61 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       97  60  89  56  86  54 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      90  57  85  51  80  49 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        95  58  86  54  81  52 /   0  20  20  10  10  10
Moses Lake     97  62  92  59  88  58 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      94  69  90  66  88  64 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           96  62  92  58  88  57 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Noon PDT today through Tuesday evening
     for East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East
     Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 031142
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
442 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
The ongoing drought combined with high heat and low humidity will
contribute to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest.
Temperatures on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an
increase in clouds. Cooler temperatures and locally breezy winds
are expected mainly Monday through Wednesday following the arrival
of a cold front. Another threat of showers and thunderstorms
arrives next weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight: An upper level ridge of high pressure across
the Rockies will keep the region under southerly flow through tonight.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows a shortwave disturbance
pushing across northern CA and into OR. Moisture at mid levels
will increase out ahead of this wave, but models do not show much
cooling taking place aloft to result in any substantial steepening
of the mid level lapse rates. The weak instability is resulting in
shallow convection with not enough charge separation to generate
lightning. This trend will continue as the disturbance pushes
north through this morning and into the afternoon. Thunderstorms
were removed from the forecast for the most part. The only
exception is over the higher mountain peaks in ID near the border
of MT. All other areas are expected to see plenty of mid and high
level cloud cover with passing very light showers or sprinkles.

Winds will also increase through the Cascade gaps today. Low
levels remain very dry and this will not change even with the
increasing moisture at mid levels. Although temperatures will be
cooler today compared to over the weekend, relative humidity will
be at critical levels with rapid fire spread possible as the winds
increase. The Fire Weather Watch for the central and northern
Cascade valleys remains valid, which covers both Monday and
Tuesday afternoons.

Tuesday: The upper level low pressure system currently spinning
over northwest BC early this morning will drop into central BC. A
cold front will also sweep across eastern WA and is denoted by the
darkening on the water vapor imagery northwest of Vancouver
Island. The darkening on water vapor is indicative of more dry air
approaching the region behind the front. This dry air will likely
keep much of the region free of showers. Best chances will be
near the Canadian border. Winds will continue to be breezy through
the Cascade gaps on Tuesday as well. /SVH

Tuesday night through Monday...The models are showing some differences
out towards the end of the run. But mostly they are in very good
agreement showing an upper level low moving through southern B.C.
Tuesday through Thursday. Then another low pressure system looks
to move into B.C. again Saturday and Sunday.

Tuesday night through Thursday...The upper level low will track
through the region. Lingering moisture and weak instability will
combine with up-sloping flow for a low end chance of showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday evening. Behind the front much drier air
will move into the region. This will put a cap on any additional
convection and all the chances for showers were taken out of the
forecast. A second wave will move through the low Wednesday night
and Thursday. Again this wave will be moisture starved and models
are showing little if any instability south of the Canadian
border. As such pops were lowered and any chance for thunderstorms
were taken out as well.

There is much better confidence in temperatures cooling off into
the low to mid 80s on Wednesday and upper 70s to low 80s on
Thursday. This may be as much as 10 degrees below normal on
Thursday. Southwest winds will be on the increase as the surface
gradient across the Cascades tightens up. Winds speeds of 10-20
mph with gusts 20-25 mph will be coming through the Cascade gaps
and likely on to the Waterville Plateau and into the deep Basin.
As mentioned earlier much drier air is progged to move in behind
the front dropping relative humidity down into the teen to lower
20s. This combination will be a good set up for fire weather
concerns Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday night through early Saturday a transient ridge of high
pressure will track through the region resulting in a short lived
warm up with another round of low relative humidity.

Saturday night through Monday...the models begin to break down on
the timing of the next upper level low. The GFS/Canadian model
bring the low through the quickest as an open wave which would
give the northern zones another glancing blow of showers and
possibly thunderstorms. The ECMWF is much slower, deeper and
further south. This pattern would be much wetter and cooler for
the region and is a perfect set up for thunderstorms. Consensus is
to lean in direction of the faster moving system. This would
result in isolated to scattered showers near the mountains. And
continued warm and dry for the remainder of the forecast area.
Tobin


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Wildfire smoke will continue to reduce visibilities to
between 3-9 miles over much of the region...with greater
restrictions around Chelan. A weak weather disturbance passing
through today and tonight will result in mainly mid and high level
clouds...with a few sprinkles possibly reaching the surface. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        93  66  87  59  82  57 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  94  62  87  57  82  54 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        92  57  86  54  82  52 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Lewiston       97  68  95  63  90  61 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       97  60  89  56  86  54 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      90  57  85  51  80  49 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        95  58  86  54  81  52 /   0  20  20  10  10  10
Moses Lake     97  62  92  59  88  58 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      94  69  90  66  88  64 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           96  62  92  58  88  57 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Noon PDT today through Tuesday evening
     for East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East
     Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSEW 030954
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA MOST OF THE COMING
WEEK MID WEEK WITH LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE WILL ALSO BE
AN INCREASE IN NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS BY TUESDAY. HIGHER
PRESSURE BY THURSDAY SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A THREAT OF
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY AS A TROUGH
DIGS SWD TOWARD THE AREA. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW TODAY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LATEST FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY SHOWS SOME PATCHY
STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE N COAST AND NEAR THE W ENTRANCE TO THE
STRAIT. LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY NOT BECOME VERY WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING
BUT MARINE AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY TO DROP 4-8 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY.

LOW CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT THEN
PUSH DOWN THE STRAIT AND THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP OVERNIGHT. STRATUS
WILL LIKELY FILL IN ACROSS MOST THE LOWLANDS WITH A CLOUDY START TO THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWER AND THE INCREASED MARINE
INFLUENCE SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 70S OVER THE
INTERIOR...NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST. THIS PATTERN WILL REPEAT
ON WEDNESDAY.

MOST MODELS SHOW DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEKEND. SW FLOW ALOFT IS A
STABLE UPPER AIR PATTERN AND NOT USUALLY CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE REMOVED WITH THE MORNING
FORECAST ISSUANCE. WILL ALSO REMOVE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH
LOOKS TO BE DRY AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW SHOULD START TO MIGRATE EWD THURSDAY WITH
WEAK RIDGING ON FRIDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE LIGHTER WITH LESS
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MAY REACH THE LOW 80S
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

MODELS DISAGREE ON THE PATTERN THIS NEXT WEEKEND. SOLUTIONS RANGE
FROM A WEAK AND DRY SPLIT TROUGH TO A MORE CONSOLIDATED LOW. MOST
SOLUTIONS SHOW SOME QPF OVER THE PAC NW SO WILL LEAVE THE SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROBABLY PICK UP WITH MODERATING
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.  MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT...IN-
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MT AND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER CENTRAL B.C.  A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST
TODAY...THEN MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE DIRECT
AFFECT BUT WILL INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT WHICH WILL MOISTEN
THE LOWER AIR MASS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR TODAY...THE AIR MASS OVER W WA REMAINS MAINLY DRY. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING N FROM OREGON TODAY IN THE SW FLOW
ALOFT. ONSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BRING STRATUS TO THE
COAST AND PARTWAY INLAND THIS MORNING. HOWEVER LIMITED OBSERVATIONS
ONLY SHOW STRATUS AT KUIL SO FAR THIS MORNING. THERE IS STILL A FAIR
CHANCE THAT IFR STRATUS WILL REACH KHQM THIS MORNING AND A LOWER
CHANCE THAT SOME WILL REACH KCLM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS GETTING LOWER.
REGARDLESS THE STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY EXCEPT FOR THE COAST.
OTHERWISE GOOD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS W WA THROUGH TODAY.

KSEA...GOOD VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA SHOULD MOVE E THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT N SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE N-NW 3-7 KT THIS MORNING.
KAM

&&

.MARINE...AN OFFSHORE SURFACE RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURE
OVER E WA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THIS
WEEK.

LAST NIGHTS GALE IN THE STRAIT IS HAVING TROUBLE GIVING UP. THE UIL-
BLI PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RISEN TO 2.7 MB AT 2 AM WITH BORDERLINE
GALE CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL
5 AM. IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE SCA RANGE THE
REST OF THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE RISING BACK TO GALE
LEVELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE STRONGEST OF THIS WEEK. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH W WA TODAY THEN MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO PRODUCE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SCA WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY TONIGHT IN ADMIRALTY INLET AND OVER
THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS...WHICH ARE ADJACENT TO THE STRAIT.

SCA NW WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING OVER
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. THIS SCA IS ALREADY IN EFFECT. THERE IS
ALSO A CHANCE OF BORDERLINE SCA WINDS OVER THE INNER COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING S OF JAMES ISLAND. THIS IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN SO THE
WINDS HAVE BEEN HELD TO 10-20 KT FOR NOW.

THE ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO EASILY PRODUCE SCA WINDS IN THE STRAIT...WITH BORDERLINE
GALE FORCE WINDS STILL A POSSIBILITY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN THE ONSHORE FLOW A
BIT MORE THURSDAY NIGHT. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT TO TUE MORNING.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA 5 AM
     THIS MORNING TO 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
     GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA UNTIL 5 AM
     THIS MORNING AND THEN FROM 3 PM THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KSEW 030954
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA MOST OF THE COMING
WEEK MID WEEK WITH LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE WILL ALSO BE
AN INCREASE IN NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS BY TUESDAY. HIGHER
PRESSURE BY THURSDAY SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A THREAT OF
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY AS A TROUGH
DIGS SWD TOWARD THE AREA. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW TODAY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LATEST FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY SHOWS SOME PATCHY
STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE N COAST AND NEAR THE W ENTRANCE TO THE
STRAIT. LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY NOT BECOME VERY WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING
BUT MARINE AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY TO DROP 4-8 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY.

LOW CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT THEN
PUSH DOWN THE STRAIT AND THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP OVERNIGHT. STRATUS
WILL LIKELY FILL IN ACROSS MOST THE LOWLANDS WITH A CLOUDY START TO THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWER AND THE INCREASED MARINE
INFLUENCE SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 70S OVER THE
INTERIOR...NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST. THIS PATTERN WILL REPEAT
ON WEDNESDAY.

MOST MODELS SHOW DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEKEND. SW FLOW ALOFT IS A
STABLE UPPER AIR PATTERN AND NOT USUALLY CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE REMOVED WITH THE MORNING
FORECAST ISSUANCE. WILL ALSO REMOVE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH
LOOKS TO BE DRY AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW SHOULD START TO MIGRATE EWD THURSDAY WITH
WEAK RIDGING ON FRIDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE LIGHTER WITH LESS
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MAY REACH THE LOW 80S
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

MODELS DISAGREE ON THE PATTERN THIS NEXT WEEKEND. SOLUTIONS RANGE
FROM A WEAK AND DRY SPLIT TROUGH TO A MORE CONSOLIDATED LOW. MOST
SOLUTIONS SHOW SOME QPF OVER THE PAC NW SO WILL LEAVE THE SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROBABLY PICK UP WITH MODERATING
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.  MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT...IN-
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MT AND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER CENTRAL B.C.  A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST
TODAY...THEN MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE DIRECT
AFFECT BUT WILL INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT WHICH WILL MOISTEN
THE LOWER AIR MASS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR TODAY...THE AIR MASS OVER W WA REMAINS MAINLY DRY. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING N FROM OREGON TODAY IN THE SW FLOW
ALOFT. ONSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BRING STRATUS TO THE
COAST AND PARTWAY INLAND THIS MORNING. HOWEVER LIMITED OBSERVATIONS
ONLY SHOW STRATUS AT KUIL SO FAR THIS MORNING. THERE IS STILL A FAIR
CHANCE THAT IFR STRATUS WILL REACH KHQM THIS MORNING AND A LOWER
CHANCE THAT SOME WILL REACH KCLM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS GETTING LOWER.
REGARDLESS THE STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY EXCEPT FOR THE COAST.
OTHERWISE GOOD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS W WA THROUGH TODAY.

KSEA...GOOD VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA SHOULD MOVE E THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT N SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE N-NW 3-7 KT THIS MORNING.
KAM

&&

.MARINE...AN OFFSHORE SURFACE RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURE
OVER E WA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THIS
WEEK.

LAST NIGHTS GALE IN THE STRAIT IS HAVING TROUBLE GIVING UP. THE UIL-
BLI PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RISEN TO 2.7 MB AT 2 AM WITH BORDERLINE
GALE CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL
5 AM. IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE SCA RANGE THE
REST OF THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE RISING BACK TO GALE
LEVELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE STRONGEST OF THIS WEEK. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH W WA TODAY THEN MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO PRODUCE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SCA WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY TONIGHT IN ADMIRALTY INLET AND OVER
THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS...WHICH ARE ADJACENT TO THE STRAIT.

SCA NW WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING OVER
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. THIS SCA IS ALREADY IN EFFECT. THERE IS
ALSO A CHANCE OF BORDERLINE SCA WINDS OVER THE INNER COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING S OF JAMES ISLAND. THIS IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN SO THE
WINDS HAVE BEEN HELD TO 10-20 KT FOR NOW.

THE ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO EASILY PRODUCE SCA WINDS IN THE STRAIT...WITH BORDERLINE
GALE FORCE WINDS STILL A POSSIBILITY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN THE ONSHORE FLOW A
BIT MORE THURSDAY NIGHT. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT TO TUE MORNING.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA 5 AM
     THIS MORNING TO 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
     GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA UNTIL 5 AM
     THIS MORNING AND THEN FROM 3 PM THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KOTX 030950
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
250 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
The ongoing drought combined with high heat and low humidity will
contribute to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest.
Temperatures on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an
increase in clouds. Cooler temperatures and locally breezy winds
are expected mainly Monday through Wednesday following the arrival
of a cold front. Another threat of showers and thunderstorms
arrives next weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight: An upper level ridge of high pressure across
the Rockies will keep the region under southerly flow through tonight.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows a shortwave disturbance
pushing across northern CA and into OR. Moisture at mid levels
will increase out ahead of this wave, but models do not show much
cooling taking place aloft to result in any substantial steepening
of the mid level lapse rates. The weak instability is resulting in
shallow convection with not enough charge separation to generate
lightning. This trend will continue as the disturbance pushes
north through this morning and into the afternoon. Thunderstorms
were removed from the forecast for the most part. The only
exception is over the higher mountain peaks in ID near the border
of MT. All other areas are expected to see plenty of mid and high
level cloud cover with passing very light showers or sprinkles.

Winds will also increase through the Cascade gaps today. Low
levels remain very dry and this will not change even with the
increasing moisture at mid levels. Although temperatures will be
cooler today compared to over the weekend, relative humidity will
be at critical levels with rapid fire spread possible as the winds
increase. The Fire Weather Watch for the central and northern
Cascade valleys remains valid, which covers both Monday and
Tuesday afternoons.

Tuesday: The upper level low pressure system currently spinning
over northwest BC early this morning will drop into central BC. A
cold front will also sweep across eastern WA and is denoted by the
darkening on the water vapor imagery northwest of Vancouver
Island. The darkening on water vapor is indicative of more dry air
approaching the region behind the front. This dry air will likely
keep much of the region free of showers. Best chances will be
near the Canadian border. Winds will continue to be breezy through
the Cascade gaps on Tuesday as well. /SVH

Tuesday night through Monday...The models are showing some differences
out towards the end of the run. But mostly they are in very good
agreement showing an upper level low moving through southern B.C.
Tuesday through Thursday. Then another low pressure system looks
to move into B.C. again Saturday and Sunday.

Tuesday night through Thursday...The upper level low will track
through the region. Lingering moisture and weak instability will
combine with up-sloping flow for a low end chance of showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday evening. Behind the front much drier air
will move into the region. This will put a cap on any additional
convection and all the chances for showers were taken out of the
forecast. A second wave will move through the low Wednesday night
and Thursday. Again this wave will be moisture starved and models
are showing little if any instability south of the Canadian
border. As such pops were lowered and any chance for thunderstorms
were taken out as well.

There is much better confidence in temperatures cooling off into
the low to mid 80s on Wednesday and upper 70s to low 80s on
Thursday. This may be as much as 10 degrees below normal on
Thursday. Southwest winds will be on the increase as the surface
gradient across the Cascades tightens up. Winds speeds of 10-20
mph with gusts 20-25 mph will be coming through the Cascade gaps
and likely on to the Waterville Plateau and into the deep Basin.
As mentioned earlier much drier air is progged to move in behind
the front dropping relative humidity down into the teen to lower
20s. This combination will be a good set up for fire weather
concerns Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday night through early Saturday a transient ridge of high
pressure will track through the region resulting in a short lived
warm up with another round of low relative humidity.

Saturday night through Monday...the models begin to break down on
the timing of the next upper level low. The GFS/Canadian model
bring the low through the quickest as an open wave which would
give the northern zones another glancing blow of showers and
possibly thunderstorms. The ECMWF is much slower, deeper and
further south. This pattern would be much wetter and cooler for
the region and is a perfect set up for thunderstorms. Consensus is
to lean in direction of the faster moving system. This would
result in isolated to scattered showers near the mountains. And
continued warm and dry for the remainder of the forecast area.
Tobin



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Wildfire smoke will continue to reduce visibilities to
between 3-9 miles over much of the region...with greater
restrictions around Chelan. A weak weather disturbance passing
through tomorrow will result in mainly mid and high level
clouds...with a few sprinkles possibly reaching the surface.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        93  66  87  59  82  57 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  94  62  87  57  82  54 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        92  57  86  54  82  52 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Lewiston       97  68  95  63  90  61 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       97  60  89  56  86  54 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      90  57  85  51  80  49 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        95  58  86  54  81  52 /   0  20  20  10  10  10
Moses Lake     97  62  92  59  88  58 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      94  69  90  66  88  64 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           96  62  92  58  88  57 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Noon PDT today through Tuesday evening
     for East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East
     Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 030950
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
250 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
The ongoing drought combined with high heat and low humidity will
contribute to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest.
Temperatures on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an
increase in clouds. Cooler temperatures and locally breezy winds
are expected mainly Monday through Wednesday following the arrival
of a cold front. Another threat of showers and thunderstorms
arrives next weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight: An upper level ridge of high pressure across
the Rockies will keep the region under southerly flow through tonight.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows a shortwave disturbance
pushing across northern CA and into OR. Moisture at mid levels
will increase out ahead of this wave, but models do not show much
cooling taking place aloft to result in any substantial steepening
of the mid level lapse rates. The weak instability is resulting in
shallow convection with not enough charge separation to generate
lightning. This trend will continue as the disturbance pushes
north through this morning and into the afternoon. Thunderstorms
were removed from the forecast for the most part. The only
exception is over the higher mountain peaks in ID near the border
of MT. All other areas are expected to see plenty of mid and high
level cloud cover with passing very light showers or sprinkles.

Winds will also increase through the Cascade gaps today. Low
levels remain very dry and this will not change even with the
increasing moisture at mid levels. Although temperatures will be
cooler today compared to over the weekend, relative humidity will
be at critical levels with rapid fire spread possible as the winds
increase. The Fire Weather Watch for the central and northern
Cascade valleys remains valid, which covers both Monday and
Tuesday afternoons.

Tuesday: The upper level low pressure system currently spinning
over northwest BC early this morning will drop into central BC. A
cold front will also sweep across eastern WA and is denoted by the
darkening on the water vapor imagery northwest of Vancouver
Island. The darkening on water vapor is indicative of more dry air
approaching the region behind the front. This dry air will likely
keep much of the region free of showers. Best chances will be
near the Canadian border. Winds will continue to be breezy through
the Cascade gaps on Tuesday as well. /SVH

Tuesday night through Monday...The models are showing some differences
out towards the end of the run. But mostly they are in very good
agreement showing an upper level low moving through southern B.C.
Tuesday through Thursday. Then another low pressure system looks
to move into B.C. again Saturday and Sunday.

Tuesday night through Thursday...The upper level low will track
through the region. Lingering moisture and weak instability will
combine with up-sloping flow for a low end chance of showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday evening. Behind the front much drier air
will move into the region. This will put a cap on any additional
convection and all the chances for showers were taken out of the
forecast. A second wave will move through the low Wednesday night
and Thursday. Again this wave will be moisture starved and models
are showing little if any instability south of the Canadian
border. As such pops were lowered and any chance for thunderstorms
were taken out as well.

There is much better confidence in temperatures cooling off into
the low to mid 80s on Wednesday and upper 70s to low 80s on
Thursday. This may be as much as 10 degrees below normal on
Thursday. Southwest winds will be on the increase as the surface
gradient across the Cascades tightens up. Winds speeds of 10-20
mph with gusts 20-25 mph will be coming through the Cascade gaps
and likely on to the Waterville Plateau and into the deep Basin.
As mentioned earlier much drier air is progged to move in behind
the front dropping relative humidity down into the teen to lower
20s. This combination will be a good set up for fire weather
concerns Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday night through early Saturday a transient ridge of high
pressure will track through the region resulting in a short lived
warm up with another round of low relative humidity.

Saturday night through Monday...the models begin to break down on
the timing of the next upper level low. The GFS/Canadian model
bring the low through the quickest as an open wave which would
give the northern zones another glancing blow of showers and
possibly thunderstorms. The ECMWF is much slower, deeper and
further south. This pattern would be much wetter and cooler for
the region and is a perfect set up for thunderstorms. Consensus is
to lean in direction of the faster moving system. This would
result in isolated to scattered showers near the mountains. And
continued warm and dry for the remainder of the forecast area.
Tobin



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Wildfire smoke will continue to reduce visibilities to
between 3-9 miles over much of the region...with greater
restrictions around Chelan. A weak weather disturbance passing
through tomorrow will result in mainly mid and high level
clouds...with a few sprinkles possibly reaching the surface.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        93  66  87  59  82  57 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  94  62  87  57  82  54 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        92  57  86  54  82  52 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Lewiston       97  68  95  63  90  61 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       97  60  89  56  86  54 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      90  57  85  51  80  49 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        95  58  86  54  81  52 /   0  20  20  10  10  10
Moses Lake     97  62  92  59  88  58 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      94  69  90  66  88  64 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           96  62  92  58  88  57 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Noon PDT today through Tuesday evening
     for East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East
     Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 030927
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON EARLY TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE BC COAST
WILL MOVE S DOWN THE COAST...PUSHING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW TONIGHT
THROUGH WED FOR A PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES LASTING THROUGH MID
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN IN WATER VPOAR IMAGERY
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS N CA...SLOWLY LIFTING NE. PLENTY OF HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE PRECEDED THE SHORTWAVES ACROSS WESTERN OREGON...AND
RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN OR
AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS. AT TIMES THERE HAS BEEN SOME LIGHTNING SEEN
ACROSS SW OREGON AND OFFSHORE...SUGGESTING SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL
INSTABILITY REMAINED. 00Z SOUNDINGS AT SLE AND MFR...AND MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAINED PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT GIVEN THE TRACK RECORD OF THE AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A LOW POP FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS MORNING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE
SHORTWAVE DEPICTED BY THE MODELS MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY. ONCE
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO MOVE OUT FOR MORE SUNSHINE THAN OCCURRED SUN
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP CLOSER TO WHAT H8
TEMPS WOULD OTHERWISE SUGGEST FOR HIGHS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
BETTER INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING REMAINING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CASCADES...SO WILL NEED TO LEAVE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THERE THROUGH THE EVENING.

AN UPPER LOW SINKING S ALONG THE BC COAST WILL THEN BRING COOLING
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WED. A NW ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASED
PRESENCE OF MARINE AIR TO THE REGION. MARINE CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST PUSHING LOCALLY INLAND DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS EACH DAY...WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF CLOUDS COMING UP THE
LOWER COLUMBIA AND INTO THE N PART OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THE NW
LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH MODEL FORECAST H8 TEMPS DOWN IN THE 12 TO 14 DEG
C RANGE SUGGEST HIGHS TUE AND WED NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. WILL ADD A
MENTION OF MORNING DRIZZLE ALONG THE N PART OF THE COAST TUE AND WED
 AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM DUE TO DEEPER MARINE AIR AND MAYBE A LITTLE
LIFT BY WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT LOW OVER BC.

LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A WEAK/FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. WITH DECREASING ONSHORE FLOW WE
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 80S BY FRIDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO ITS
TIMING AND STRENGTH. UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON CASCADES. AS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH PUSHES INLAND WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE CASCADES. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND LOOK TO FALL BACK
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS. /64 &&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR EARLY TODAY WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS REMAINING OVERHEAD. SOME LIGHT CONVECTION ONGOING MOVING
FROM S TO N...WITH SHOWERS LARGELY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS
AND THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS...BUT ALSO A FEW WEAK SHOWERS MAKING
THEIR WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY NEAR KEUG. STILL A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW IN PINPOINTING THE LOCATION/TIMING
OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP...IF ANY MORE DO AT ALL. LOW STRATUS
REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE COASTLINE. THIS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN AT KONP THROUGH DAYBREAK AND MAY ALSO PUSH ONSHORE FOR THE
NORTH OREGON COAST TOO. OTHERWISE VFR CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING THU BEFORE SCATTERING OUT BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.


KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SCATTERING BY AFTERNOON.
REMAINS A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 16Z...BUT VERY
LOW CHANCE OF THIS MATERIALIZING. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...ISOLATED SHOWERS...WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...REMAIN
JUST BEYOND THE OUTER WATERS OF CENTRAL OREGON. LIGHTNING APPEARS
TO BE TAPERING OFF WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY BUT REMAINING HEAVIER
SHOWERS MOVING FROM S TO N MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. THE PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT FOR MON AFTERNOON/EVENING. FEW LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...BUT NOT EXPECTING THESE TO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. WINDS FURTHER INCREASE
ON TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SUSPECT AN ADVISORY FOR WINDS WILL BE
NECESSARY.

MEANWHILE...OVERALL WAVE HEIGHTS DECREASING A FEW FEET TODAY...BUT
GIVEN THAT SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD AND WIND DRIVEN WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WATERS.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA FOR MON...BUT AN
ADVISOR FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE NEEDED AT A LATER TIME. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 030927
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON EARLY TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE BC COAST
WILL MOVE S DOWN THE COAST...PUSHING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW TONIGHT
THROUGH WED FOR A PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES LASTING THROUGH MID
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN IN WATER VPOAR IMAGERY
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS N CA...SLOWLY LIFTING NE. PLENTY OF HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE PRECEDED THE SHORTWAVES ACROSS WESTERN OREGON...AND
RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN OR
AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS. AT TIMES THERE HAS BEEN SOME LIGHTNING SEEN
ACROSS SW OREGON AND OFFSHORE...SUGGESTING SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL
INSTABILITY REMAINED. 00Z SOUNDINGS AT SLE AND MFR...AND MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAINED PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT GIVEN THE TRACK RECORD OF THE AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A LOW POP FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS MORNING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE
SHORTWAVE DEPICTED BY THE MODELS MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY. ONCE
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO MOVE OUT FOR MORE SUNSHINE THAN OCCURRED SUN
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP CLOSER TO WHAT H8
TEMPS WOULD OTHERWISE SUGGEST FOR HIGHS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
BETTER INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING REMAINING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CASCADES...SO WILL NEED TO LEAVE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THERE THROUGH THE EVENING.

AN UPPER LOW SINKING S ALONG THE BC COAST WILL THEN BRING COOLING
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WED. A NW ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASED
PRESENCE OF MARINE AIR TO THE REGION. MARINE CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST PUSHING LOCALLY INLAND DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS EACH DAY...WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF CLOUDS COMING UP THE
LOWER COLUMBIA AND INTO THE N PART OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THE NW
LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH MODEL FORECAST H8 TEMPS DOWN IN THE 12 TO 14 DEG
C RANGE SUGGEST HIGHS TUE AND WED NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. WILL ADD A
MENTION OF MORNING DRIZZLE ALONG THE N PART OF THE COAST TUE AND WED
 AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM DUE TO DEEPER MARINE AIR AND MAYBE A LITTLE
LIFT BY WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT LOW OVER BC.

LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A WEAK/FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. WITH DECREASING ONSHORE FLOW WE
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 80S BY FRIDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO ITS
TIMING AND STRENGTH. UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON CASCADES. AS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH PUSHES INLAND WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE CASCADES. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND LOOK TO FALL BACK
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS. /64 &&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR EARLY TODAY WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS REMAINING OVERHEAD. SOME LIGHT CONVECTION ONGOING MOVING
FROM S TO N...WITH SHOWERS LARGELY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS
AND THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS...BUT ALSO A FEW WEAK SHOWERS MAKING
THEIR WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY NEAR KEUG. STILL A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW IN PINPOINTING THE LOCATION/TIMING
OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP...IF ANY MORE DO AT ALL. LOW STRATUS
REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE COASTLINE. THIS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN AT KONP THROUGH DAYBREAK AND MAY ALSO PUSH ONSHORE FOR THE
NORTH OREGON COAST TOO. OTHERWISE VFR CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING THU BEFORE SCATTERING OUT BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.


KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SCATTERING BY AFTERNOON.
REMAINS A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 16Z...BUT VERY
LOW CHANCE OF THIS MATERIALIZING. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...ISOLATED SHOWERS...WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...REMAIN
JUST BEYOND THE OUTER WATERS OF CENTRAL OREGON. LIGHTNING APPEARS
TO BE TAPERING OFF WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY BUT REMAINING HEAVIER
SHOWERS MOVING FROM S TO N MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. THE PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT FOR MON AFTERNOON/EVENING. FEW LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...BUT NOT EXPECTING THESE TO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. WINDS FURTHER INCREASE
ON TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SUSPECT AN ADVISORY FOR WINDS WILL BE
NECESSARY.

MEANWHILE...OVERALL WAVE HEIGHTS DECREASING A FEW FEET TODAY...BUT
GIVEN THAT SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD AND WIND DRIVEN WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WATERS.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA FOR MON...BUT AN
ADVISOR FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE NEEDED AT A LATER TIME. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 030927
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON EARLY TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE BC COAST
WILL MOVE S DOWN THE COAST...PUSHING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW TONIGHT
THROUGH WED FOR A PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES LASTING THROUGH MID
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN IN WATER VPOAR IMAGERY
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS N CA...SLOWLY LIFTING NE. PLENTY OF HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE PRECEDED THE SHORTWAVES ACROSS WESTERN OREGON...AND
RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN OR
AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS. AT TIMES THERE HAS BEEN SOME LIGHTNING SEEN
ACROSS SW OREGON AND OFFSHORE...SUGGESTING SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL
INSTABILITY REMAINED. 00Z SOUNDINGS AT SLE AND MFR...AND MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAINED PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT GIVEN THE TRACK RECORD OF THE AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A LOW POP FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS MORNING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE
SHORTWAVE DEPICTED BY THE MODELS MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY. ONCE
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO MOVE OUT FOR MORE SUNSHINE THAN OCCURRED SUN
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP CLOSER TO WHAT H8
TEMPS WOULD OTHERWISE SUGGEST FOR HIGHS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
BETTER INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING REMAINING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CASCADES...SO WILL NEED TO LEAVE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THERE THROUGH THE EVENING.

AN UPPER LOW SINKING S ALONG THE BC COAST WILL THEN BRING COOLING
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WED. A NW ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASED
PRESENCE OF MARINE AIR TO THE REGION. MARINE CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST PUSHING LOCALLY INLAND DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS EACH DAY...WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF CLOUDS COMING UP THE
LOWER COLUMBIA AND INTO THE N PART OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THE NW
LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH MODEL FORECAST H8 TEMPS DOWN IN THE 12 TO 14 DEG
C RANGE SUGGEST HIGHS TUE AND WED NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. WILL ADD A
MENTION OF MORNING DRIZZLE ALONG THE N PART OF THE COAST TUE AND WED
 AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM DUE TO DEEPER MARINE AIR AND MAYBE A LITTLE
LIFT BY WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT LOW OVER BC.

LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A WEAK/FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. WITH DECREASING ONSHORE FLOW WE
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 80S BY FRIDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO ITS
TIMING AND STRENGTH. UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON CASCADES. AS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH PUSHES INLAND WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE CASCADES. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND LOOK TO FALL BACK
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS. /64 &&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR EARLY TODAY WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS REMAINING OVERHEAD. SOME LIGHT CONVECTION ONGOING MOVING
FROM S TO N...WITH SHOWERS LARGELY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS
AND THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS...BUT ALSO A FEW WEAK SHOWERS MAKING
THEIR WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY NEAR KEUG. STILL A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW IN PINPOINTING THE LOCATION/TIMING
OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP...IF ANY MORE DO AT ALL. LOW STRATUS
REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE COASTLINE. THIS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN AT KONP THROUGH DAYBREAK AND MAY ALSO PUSH ONSHORE FOR THE
NORTH OREGON COAST TOO. OTHERWISE VFR CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING THU BEFORE SCATTERING OUT BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.


KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SCATTERING BY AFTERNOON.
REMAINS A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 16Z...BUT VERY
LOW CHANCE OF THIS MATERIALIZING. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...ISOLATED SHOWERS...WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...REMAIN
JUST BEYOND THE OUTER WATERS OF CENTRAL OREGON. LIGHTNING APPEARS
TO BE TAPERING OFF WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY BUT REMAINING HEAVIER
SHOWERS MOVING FROM S TO N MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. THE PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT FOR MON AFTERNOON/EVENING. FEW LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...BUT NOT EXPECTING THESE TO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. WINDS FURTHER INCREASE
ON TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SUSPECT AN ADVISORY FOR WINDS WILL BE
NECESSARY.

MEANWHILE...OVERALL WAVE HEIGHTS DECREASING A FEW FEET TODAY...BUT
GIVEN THAT SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD AND WIND DRIVEN WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WATERS.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA FOR MON...BUT AN
ADVISOR FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE NEEDED AT A LATER TIME. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 030545
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1045 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
The ongoing drought combined with high heat and low humidity will
contribute to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest.
Temperatures on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an
increase in clouds. Cooler temperatures and locally breezy winds
are expected mainly Monday through Wednesday following the arrival
of a cold front. Another threat of showers and thunderstorms
arrives next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: Satellite shows a closed low off the central California
coast with south-southwest flow drawing up mid and high level
moisture. Radar shows some high based returns along the East
Slopes of the Cascades this evening...but most...if not all of
this should evaporate before reaching the ground given our very
dry low level air mass. Sky cover was increased a bit over North
Central Washington tonight to account for more mid level cloud
cover moving in.

The biggest update to the forecast was to add the Wenatchee,
Entiat, and Chelan areas to a fire weather watch for Monday and
Tuesday. Latest guidance, especially the NAM, is showing breezy
winds and low humidity both Monday and Tuesday in these areas.
Guidance shows Wednesday could be breezy as well but will hold off
for now for Wednesday given this is still several days out. This
is a good wind pattern through the Cascade gaps with the break
down of the hot ridge followed by several days of westerly flow as
a closed low over Central BC slowly drops south.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Wildfire smoke will continue to reduce visibilities to
between 3-9 miles over much of the region...with greater
restrictions around Chelan. A weak weather disturbance passing
through tomorrow will result in mainly mid and high level
clouds...with a few sprinkles possibly reaching the surface.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  94  67  87  60  83 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  59  94  65  87  58  83 /   0   0  20  10  10  10
Pullman        56  93  59  87  55  82 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Lewiston       68  96  69  94  64  90 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       57  96  60  89  57  87 /   0  10  20  20  20  20
Sandpoint      52  96  54  84  53  81 /   0   0  30  20  10  10
Kellogg        58  94  64  85  55  81 /   0   0  30  30  20  10
Moses Lake     66  94  63  93  60  88 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      73  93  70  93  66  88 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Omak           68  95  65  92  59  89 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening
     for East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East
     Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 030545
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1045 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
The ongoing drought combined with high heat and low humidity will
contribute to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest.
Temperatures on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an
increase in clouds. Cooler temperatures and locally breezy winds
are expected mainly Monday through Wednesday following the arrival
of a cold front. Another threat of showers and thunderstorms
arrives next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: Satellite shows a closed low off the central California
coast with south-southwest flow drawing up mid and high level
moisture. Radar shows some high based returns along the East
Slopes of the Cascades this evening...but most...if not all of
this should evaporate before reaching the ground given our very
dry low level air mass. Sky cover was increased a bit over North
Central Washington tonight to account for more mid level cloud
cover moving in.

The biggest update to the forecast was to add the Wenatchee,
Entiat, and Chelan areas to a fire weather watch for Monday and
Tuesday. Latest guidance, especially the NAM, is showing breezy
winds and low humidity both Monday and Tuesday in these areas.
Guidance shows Wednesday could be breezy as well but will hold off
for now for Wednesday given this is still several days out. This
is a good wind pattern through the Cascade gaps with the break
down of the hot ridge followed by several days of westerly flow as
a closed low over Central BC slowly drops south.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Wildfire smoke will continue to reduce visibilities to
between 3-9 miles over much of the region...with greater
restrictions around Chelan. A weak weather disturbance passing
through tomorrow will result in mainly mid and high level
clouds...with a few sprinkles possibly reaching the surface.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  94  67  87  60  83 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  59  94  65  87  58  83 /   0   0  20  10  10  10
Pullman        56  93  59  87  55  82 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Lewiston       68  96  69  94  64  90 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       57  96  60  89  57  87 /   0  10  20  20  20  20
Sandpoint      52  96  54  84  53  81 /   0   0  30  20  10  10
Kellogg        58  94  64  85  55  81 /   0   0  30  30  20  10
Moses Lake     66  94  63  93  60  88 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      73  93  70  93  66  88 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Omak           68  95  65  92  59  89 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening
     for East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East
     Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 030545
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1045 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
The ongoing drought combined with high heat and low humidity will
contribute to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest.
Temperatures on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an
increase in clouds. Cooler temperatures and locally breezy winds
are expected mainly Monday through Wednesday following the arrival
of a cold front. Another threat of showers and thunderstorms
arrives next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: Satellite shows a closed low off the central California
coast with south-southwest flow drawing up mid and high level
moisture. Radar shows some high based returns along the East
Slopes of the Cascades this evening...but most...if not all of
this should evaporate before reaching the ground given our very
dry low level air mass. Sky cover was increased a bit over North
Central Washington tonight to account for more mid level cloud
cover moving in.

The biggest update to the forecast was to add the Wenatchee,
Entiat, and Chelan areas to a fire weather watch for Monday and
Tuesday. Latest guidance, especially the NAM, is showing breezy
winds and low humidity both Monday and Tuesday in these areas.
Guidance shows Wednesday could be breezy as well but will hold off
for now for Wednesday given this is still several days out. This
is a good wind pattern through the Cascade gaps with the break
down of the hot ridge followed by several days of westerly flow as
a closed low over Central BC slowly drops south.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Wildfire smoke will continue to reduce visibilities to
between 3-9 miles over much of the region...with greater
restrictions around Chelan. A weak weather disturbance passing
through tomorrow will result in mainly mid and high level
clouds...with a few sprinkles possibly reaching the surface.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  94  67  87  60  83 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  59  94  65  87  58  83 /   0   0  20  10  10  10
Pullman        56  93  59  87  55  82 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Lewiston       68  96  69  94  64  90 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       57  96  60  89  57  87 /   0  10  20  20  20  20
Sandpoint      52  96  54  84  53  81 /   0   0  30  20  10  10
Kellogg        58  94  64  85  55  81 /   0   0  30  30  20  10
Moses Lake     66  94  63  93  60  88 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      73  93  70  93  66  88 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Omak           68  95  65  92  59  89 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening
     for East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East
     Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 030434
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
934 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
The ongoing drought combined with high heat and low humidity will
contribute to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest.
Temperatures on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an
increase in clouds. Cooler temperatures and locally breezy winds
are expected mainly Monday through Wednesday following the arrival
of a cold front. Another threat of showers and thunderstorms
arrives next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: Satellite shows a closed low off the central California
coast with south-southwest flow drawing up mid and high level
moisture. Radar shows some high based returns along the East
Slopes of the Cascades this evening...but most...if not all of
this should evaporate before reaching the ground given our very
dry low level air mass. Sky cover was increased a bit over North
Central Washington tonight to account for more mid level cloud
cover moving in.

The biggest update to the forecast was to add the Wenatchee,
Entiat, and Chelan areas to a fire weather watch for Monday and
Tuesday. Latest guidance, especially the NAM, is showing breezy
winds and low humidity both Monday and Tuesday in these areas.
Guidance shows Wednesday could be breezy as well but will hold off
for now for Wednesday given this is still several days out. This
is a good wind pattern through the Cascade gaps with the break
down of the hot ridge followed by several days of westerly flow as
a closed low over Central BC slowly drops south.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Wildfire smoke will continue to reduce visibilities to
between 4-7 miles over much of the region...with greater
restrictions around Chelan. A weak weather disturbance passing
through tomorrow will result in mainly mid and high level
clouds...with a few sprinkles possibly reaching the surface. There
will also be a slight chance of thunderstorms on Monday in the
Cascades. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  94  67  87  60  83 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  59  94  65  87  58  83 /   0   0  20  10  10  10
Pullman        56  93  59  87  55  82 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Lewiston       68  96  69  94  64  90 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       57  96  60  89  57  87 /   0  10  20  20  20  20
Sandpoint      52  96  54  84  53  81 /   0   0  30  20  10  10
Kellogg        58  94  64  85  55  81 /   0   0  30  30  20  10
Moses Lake     66  94  63  93  60  88 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      73  93  70  93  66  88 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Omak           68  95  65  92  59  89 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening
     for East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East
     Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 030434
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
934 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
The ongoing drought combined with high heat and low humidity will
contribute to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest.
Temperatures on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an
increase in clouds. Cooler temperatures and locally breezy winds
are expected mainly Monday through Wednesday following the arrival
of a cold front. Another threat of showers and thunderstorms
arrives next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: Satellite shows a closed low off the central California
coast with south-southwest flow drawing up mid and high level
moisture. Radar shows some high based returns along the East
Slopes of the Cascades this evening...but most...if not all of
this should evaporate before reaching the ground given our very
dry low level air mass. Sky cover was increased a bit over North
Central Washington tonight to account for more mid level cloud
cover moving in.

The biggest update to the forecast was to add the Wenatchee,
Entiat, and Chelan areas to a fire weather watch for Monday and
Tuesday. Latest guidance, especially the NAM, is showing breezy
winds and low humidity both Monday and Tuesday in these areas.
Guidance shows Wednesday could be breezy as well but will hold off
for now for Wednesday given this is still several days out. This
is a good wind pattern through the Cascade gaps with the break
down of the hot ridge followed by several days of westerly flow as
a closed low over Central BC slowly drops south.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Wildfire smoke will continue to reduce visibilities to
between 4-7 miles over much of the region...with greater
restrictions around Chelan. A weak weather disturbance passing
through tomorrow will result in mainly mid and high level
clouds...with a few sprinkles possibly reaching the surface. There
will also be a slight chance of thunderstorms on Monday in the
Cascades. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  94  67  87  60  83 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  59  94  65  87  58  83 /   0   0  20  10  10  10
Pullman        56  93  59  87  55  82 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Lewiston       68  96  69  94  64  90 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       57  96  60  89  57  87 /   0  10  20  20  20  20
Sandpoint      52  96  54  84  53  81 /   0   0  30  20  10  10
Kellogg        58  94  64  85  55  81 /   0   0  30  30  20  10
Moses Lake     66  94  63  93  60  88 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      73  93  70  93  66  88 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Omak           68  95  65  92  59  89 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening
     for East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East
     Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 030434
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
934 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
The ongoing drought combined with high heat and low humidity will
contribute to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest.
Temperatures on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an
increase in clouds. Cooler temperatures and locally breezy winds
are expected mainly Monday through Wednesday following the arrival
of a cold front. Another threat of showers and thunderstorms
arrives next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: Satellite shows a closed low off the central California
coast with south-southwest flow drawing up mid and high level
moisture. Radar shows some high based returns along the East
Slopes of the Cascades this evening...but most...if not all of
this should evaporate before reaching the ground given our very
dry low level air mass. Sky cover was increased a bit over North
Central Washington tonight to account for more mid level cloud
cover moving in.

The biggest update to the forecast was to add the Wenatchee,
Entiat, and Chelan areas to a fire weather watch for Monday and
Tuesday. Latest guidance, especially the NAM, is showing breezy
winds and low humidity both Monday and Tuesday in these areas.
Guidance shows Wednesday could be breezy as well but will hold off
for now for Wednesday given this is still several days out. This
is a good wind pattern through the Cascade gaps with the break
down of the hot ridge followed by several days of westerly flow as
a closed low over Central BC slowly drops south.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Wildfire smoke will continue to reduce visibilities to
between 4-7 miles over much of the region...with greater
restrictions around Chelan. A weak weather disturbance passing
through tomorrow will result in mainly mid and high level
clouds...with a few sprinkles possibly reaching the surface. There
will also be a slight chance of thunderstorms on Monday in the
Cascades. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  94  67  87  60  83 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  59  94  65  87  58  83 /   0   0  20  10  10  10
Pullman        56  93  59  87  55  82 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Lewiston       68  96  69  94  64  90 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       57  96  60  89  57  87 /   0  10  20  20  20  20
Sandpoint      52  96  54  84  53  81 /   0   0  30  20  10  10
Kellogg        58  94  64  85  55  81 /   0   0  30  30  20  10
Moses Lake     66  94  63  93  60  88 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      73  93  70  93  66  88 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Omak           68  95  65  92  59  89 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening
     for East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East
     Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 030434
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
934 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
The ongoing drought combined with high heat and low humidity will
contribute to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest.
Temperatures on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an
increase in clouds. Cooler temperatures and locally breezy winds
are expected mainly Monday through Wednesday following the arrival
of a cold front. Another threat of showers and thunderstorms
arrives next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: Satellite shows a closed low off the central California
coast with south-southwest flow drawing up mid and high level
moisture. Radar shows some high based returns along the East
Slopes of the Cascades this evening...but most...if not all of
this should evaporate before reaching the ground given our very
dry low level air mass. Sky cover was increased a bit over North
Central Washington tonight to account for more mid level cloud
cover moving in.

The biggest update to the forecast was to add the Wenatchee,
Entiat, and Chelan areas to a fire weather watch for Monday and
Tuesday. Latest guidance, especially the NAM, is showing breezy
winds and low humidity both Monday and Tuesday in these areas.
Guidance shows Wednesday could be breezy as well but will hold off
for now for Wednesday given this is still several days out. This
is a good wind pattern through the Cascade gaps with the break
down of the hot ridge followed by several days of westerly flow as
a closed low over Central BC slowly drops south.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Wildfire smoke will continue to reduce visibilities to
between 4-7 miles over much of the region...with greater
restrictions around Chelan. A weak weather disturbance passing
through tomorrow will result in mainly mid and high level
clouds...with a few sprinkles possibly reaching the surface. There
will also be a slight chance of thunderstorms on Monday in the
Cascades. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  94  67  87  60  83 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  59  94  65  87  58  83 /   0   0  20  10  10  10
Pullman        56  93  59  87  55  82 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Lewiston       68  96  69  94  64  90 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       57  96  60  89  57  87 /   0  10  20  20  20  20
Sandpoint      52  96  54  84  53  81 /   0   0  30  20  10  10
Kellogg        58  94  64  85  55  81 /   0   0  30  30  20  10
Moses Lake     66  94  63  93  60  88 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      73  93  70  93  66  88 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Omak           68  95  65  92  59  89 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening
     for East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East
     Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 030434
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
934 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
The ongoing drought combined with high heat and low humidity will
contribute to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest.
Temperatures on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an
increase in clouds. Cooler temperatures and locally breezy winds
are expected mainly Monday through Wednesday following the arrival
of a cold front. Another threat of showers and thunderstorms
arrives next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: Satellite shows a closed low off the central California
coast with south-southwest flow drawing up mid and high level
moisture. Radar shows some high based returns along the East
Slopes of the Cascades this evening...but most...if not all of
this should evaporate before reaching the ground given our very
dry low level air mass. Sky cover was increased a bit over North
Central Washington tonight to account for more mid level cloud
cover moving in.

The biggest update to the forecast was to add the Wenatchee,
Entiat, and Chelan areas to a fire weather watch for Monday and
Tuesday. Latest guidance, especially the NAM, is showing breezy
winds and low humidity both Monday and Tuesday in these areas.
Guidance shows Wednesday could be breezy as well but will hold off
for now for Wednesday given this is still several days out. This
is a good wind pattern through the Cascade gaps with the break
down of the hot ridge followed by several days of westerly flow as
a closed low over Central BC slowly drops south.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Wildfire smoke will continue to reduce visibilities to
between 4-7 miles over much of the region...with greater
restrictions around Chelan. A weak weather disturbance passing
through tomorrow will result in mainly mid and high level
clouds...with a few sprinkles possibly reaching the surface. There
will also be a slight chance of thunderstorms on Monday in the
Cascades. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  94  67  87  60  83 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  59  94  65  87  58  83 /   0   0  20  10  10  10
Pullman        56  93  59  87  55  82 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Lewiston       68  96  69  94  64  90 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       57  96  60  89  57  87 /   0  10  20  20  20  20
Sandpoint      52  96  54  84  53  81 /   0   0  30  20  10  10
Kellogg        58  94  64  85  55  81 /   0   0  30  30  20  10
Moses Lake     66  94  63  93  60  88 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      73  93  70  93  66  88 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Omak           68  95  65  92  59  89 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...FIRE Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening
     for East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East
     Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KPQR 030401
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
900 PM PDT SUN AUG  2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AS AN
UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST STEERS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
OVER WESTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. THIS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE
B.C. COAST THEN MOVES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
MORNING CLOUDS TO THE AREA FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&

.UPDATE...MOISTURE AND LIMITED INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO FLOW
NORTHWARD AROUND WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. 00Z SLE SOUNDING SHOWED
MOST OF THE MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB...BUT RELATIVELY DRY DOWN LOW FOR
NEGLIGIBLE CAPE AND MOSTLY TRACE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EARLIER
TODAY. NOT EXPECTING SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN THERMODYNAMICS
OVERNIGHT... ALTHOUGH SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE 850-700 MB ALONG
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER SWRN ORE PROGGED TO REACH NWRN ORE AROUND
09Z. HRRR DEVELOPS AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS IN A BAND FROM
CNTRL OREGON COAST TO EASTERN PDX METRO BETWEEN 06-08Z...LIFTING
NORTHWARD THEREAFTER. SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AND GIVEN SLIGHT INCREASE IN
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE...AN ISOLATED ELEVATED NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THIS
WELL WITH MAXIMUM IN POPS LATE NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THEN
AIRMASS DRIES FROM THE WEST AS PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES COASTLINE
18Z-00Z...USHERING IN A PERIOD OF MORE NORMAL WEATHER FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK. BRIGHT

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM PDT SUN AUG  2 2015/

SHORT TERM...CONVECTIVE CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TODAY AS A STEADY STREAM OF MID AND HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH FROM THE SIERRAS AND FROM NEVADA...BEING
STEERED BY AN UPPER LOW LOCATED WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND WERE THICKEST OVER THE COAST RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THE SIERRAS...AND NORTHERN NEVADA THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS CLOUD
COVER IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
THE MODELS SHOW A DECENT JET SEGMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AS
IT MOVES THROUGH...GIVING SUPPORT TO THE IDEA OF ELEVATED NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION CONTINUING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS HOW THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED OVER THE LAST 24 TO 36 HOURS.

THE SHORT WAVE OR VORTICITY LOBE AND MOISTURE AREA WILL STILL BE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

DESPITE A RATHER WARM AIR MASS REMAINING OVER OUR AREA...THE CLOUDS
HAVE SUPPRESSED TEMPERATURES THOUGH THE HUMIDITY HAS RISEN QUITE A
BIT WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. UNLESS MORE SUNBREAKS
DEVELOP THAN ARE NOW EXPECTED...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL HAVE TROUBLE
REACHING 90 DEGREES TODAY...AND SO WILL END THE HEAT ADVISORY.

BY MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL BE SAGGING SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TURN THE
UPPER FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...AND LIMIT THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER MONDAY TO OUR SOUTHERN CASCADE AREAS AND
TO ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CREST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTH WITH MORE ENERGY IN WASHINGTON BY TUESDAY... WITH MORE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON.
AGAIN...THE MAIN THREAT OF THUNDER FOR OUR AREA WILL BE NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS LATER TUESDAY...AND EVEN THAT IS NOT CERTAIN.

THE MARINE LAYER WAS AGAIN SHALLOW AND CONFINED TO NEAR THE COAST
THIS MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY THICKEN SOME FROM THE
SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS THROUGH...
POSSIBLY TRYING TO PUSH INTO THE COASTAL GAPS BY MONDAY MORNING...
BUT INLAND COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY. EXPECT BETTER INLAND COVERAGE OF
LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...WITH THE INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH.

WE WILL PROBABLY SEE MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON THAN THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH A GRADUAL COOLING OF THE AIR MASS. TEMPS WILL
TEND TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S...COOLEST NORTH. TEMPS WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER THE NORTHWEST ONSHORE
FLOW. TOLLESON

LONG TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK/FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. WITH
DECREASING ONSHORE FLOW WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO
THE MID 80S BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO ITS TIMING AND STRENGTH. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON
CASCADES. AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PUSHES INLAND WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON SOME
LINGERING INSTABILITY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CASCADES. TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND LOOK TO FALL BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS. /64
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE ONE EXCEPTION
IS THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST NEAR KONP WHERE MARINE STRATUS HAS
BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR CIGS. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY STORMS THAT
MAY DEVELOP. REGARDLESS...COULD GET SOME OUTFLOW GUSTS AROUND 25
KTS.

LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE COAST TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE HOW EXTENSIVE IT IS ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE FURTHER INLAND ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA
RIVER MONDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY REACHING KSPB. EXPECT CLEARING
AND CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. TJ

&&

.MARINE...A RAPIDSCAT IMAGE EARLIER THIS EVENING SHOWED GUSTS OF
25 KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BEYOND 20 NM
OUT...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT GOES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING GUSTIER IN
THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL FLIRT WITH
ADVISORY CRITERIA MON AFTERNOON...BUT HAS A BETTER CHANCE TUE
AFTERNOON. THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT A TAD. THEY ARE MOSTLY WIND
DRIVEN AND WILL BECOME STEEP AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS IN THE AFTERNOONS. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 030401
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
900 PM PDT SUN AUG  2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AS AN
UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST STEERS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
OVER WESTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. THIS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE
B.C. COAST THEN MOVES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
MORNING CLOUDS TO THE AREA FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&

.UPDATE...MOISTURE AND LIMITED INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO FLOW
NORTHWARD AROUND WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. 00Z SLE SOUNDING SHOWED
MOST OF THE MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB...BUT RELATIVELY DRY DOWN LOW FOR
NEGLIGIBLE CAPE AND MOSTLY TRACE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EARLIER
TODAY. NOT EXPECTING SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN THERMODYNAMICS
OVERNIGHT... ALTHOUGH SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE 850-700 MB ALONG
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER SWRN ORE PROGGED TO REACH NWRN ORE AROUND
09Z. HRRR DEVELOPS AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS IN A BAND FROM
CNTRL OREGON COAST TO EASTERN PDX METRO BETWEEN 06-08Z...LIFTING
NORTHWARD THEREAFTER. SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AND GIVEN SLIGHT INCREASE IN
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE...AN ISOLATED ELEVATED NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THIS
WELL WITH MAXIMUM IN POPS LATE NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THEN
AIRMASS DRIES FROM THE WEST AS PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES COASTLINE
18Z-00Z...USHERING IN A PERIOD OF MORE NORMAL WEATHER FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK. BRIGHT

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM PDT SUN AUG  2 2015/

SHORT TERM...CONVECTIVE CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TODAY AS A STEADY STREAM OF MID AND HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH FROM THE SIERRAS AND FROM NEVADA...BEING
STEERED BY AN UPPER LOW LOCATED WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND WERE THICKEST OVER THE COAST RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THE SIERRAS...AND NORTHERN NEVADA THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS CLOUD
COVER IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
THE MODELS SHOW A DECENT JET SEGMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AS
IT MOVES THROUGH...GIVING SUPPORT TO THE IDEA OF ELEVATED NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION CONTINUING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS HOW THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED OVER THE LAST 24 TO 36 HOURS.

THE SHORT WAVE OR VORTICITY LOBE AND MOISTURE AREA WILL STILL BE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

DESPITE A RATHER WARM AIR MASS REMAINING OVER OUR AREA...THE CLOUDS
HAVE SUPPRESSED TEMPERATURES THOUGH THE HUMIDITY HAS RISEN QUITE A
BIT WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. UNLESS MORE SUNBREAKS
DEVELOP THAN ARE NOW EXPECTED...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL HAVE TROUBLE
REACHING 90 DEGREES TODAY...AND SO WILL END THE HEAT ADVISORY.

BY MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL BE SAGGING SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TURN THE
UPPER FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...AND LIMIT THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER MONDAY TO OUR SOUTHERN CASCADE AREAS AND
TO ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CREST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTH WITH MORE ENERGY IN WASHINGTON BY TUESDAY... WITH MORE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON.
AGAIN...THE MAIN THREAT OF THUNDER FOR OUR AREA WILL BE NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS LATER TUESDAY...AND EVEN THAT IS NOT CERTAIN.

THE MARINE LAYER WAS AGAIN SHALLOW AND CONFINED TO NEAR THE COAST
THIS MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY THICKEN SOME FROM THE
SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS THROUGH...
POSSIBLY TRYING TO PUSH INTO THE COASTAL GAPS BY MONDAY MORNING...
BUT INLAND COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY. EXPECT BETTER INLAND COVERAGE OF
LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...WITH THE INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH.

WE WILL PROBABLY SEE MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON THAN THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH A GRADUAL COOLING OF THE AIR MASS. TEMPS WILL
TEND TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S...COOLEST NORTH. TEMPS WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER THE NORTHWEST ONSHORE
FLOW. TOLLESON

LONG TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK/FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. WITH
DECREASING ONSHORE FLOW WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO
THE MID 80S BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO ITS TIMING AND STRENGTH. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON
CASCADES. AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PUSHES INLAND WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON SOME
LINGERING INSTABILITY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CASCADES. TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND LOOK TO FALL BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS. /64
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE ONE EXCEPTION
IS THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST NEAR KONP WHERE MARINE STRATUS HAS
BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR CIGS. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY STORMS THAT
MAY DEVELOP. REGARDLESS...COULD GET SOME OUTFLOW GUSTS AROUND 25
KTS.

LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE COAST TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE HOW EXTENSIVE IT IS ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE FURTHER INLAND ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA
RIVER MONDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY REACHING KSPB. EXPECT CLEARING
AND CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. TJ

&&

.MARINE...A RAPIDSCAT IMAGE EARLIER THIS EVENING SHOWED GUSTS OF
25 KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BEYOND 20 NM
OUT...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT GOES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING GUSTIER IN
THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL FLIRT WITH
ADVISORY CRITERIA MON AFTERNOON...BUT HAS A BETTER CHANCE TUE
AFTERNOON. THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT A TAD. THEY ARE MOSTLY WIND
DRIVEN AND WILL BECOME STEEP AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS IN THE AFTERNOONS. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 030342
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
842 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA MOST OF THE
COMING WEEK WITH LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE FEW
DAYS AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL COOL HIGHS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. IT WILL ALSO BRING AN
INCREASE IN NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT.
IT LOOKS GENERALLY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON MONDAY NEAR THE CASCADE CREST
WHEN SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD DRIFT UP FROM THE SOUTH IN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HEIGHTS ACTUALLY START TO RISE
ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA MOVES WELL TO
THE EAST. ONSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS ALSO WEAKEN. A WARMING TREND
SHOULD BEGIN WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY.

THE TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE AREA ON BOTH WEEKEND DAYS. HAVE
INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE WHOLE CWA ON BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S. BURKE

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NW THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS
DRY EXCEPT FOR HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING N FROM OREGON. MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW SHALLOW STRATUS TO FORM ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT...AND SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND
FROM KHQM OVER THE SW PART OF PUGET SOUND OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNDER THE STRATUS...BUT IT SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 19Z. EXCEPT FOR THE STRATUS GOOD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

KSEA...GOOD VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL MOVE E MONDAY AFTERNOON. ONSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD STRATUS OVER THE FAR SW PART OF PUGET
SOUND MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE STRATUS IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
KSEA. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY UP TO 5 KT THROUGH 06Z THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THE REST OF TONIGHT. KAM

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CASCADES THROUGH THIS WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG THROUGH
MIDWEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES TONIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN AT
TIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND E STRAIT THIS
EVENING. THE UIL-BLI PRESSURE GRADIENT IS UP TO 2.1 MB...SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT. A BRIEF GALE IS STILL A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY
THIS EVENING. A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL/EAST STRAIT TO COVER
THE WEAKENING WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING QUITE AS MUCH OVERNIGHT AS PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...SO PER THE CANADIAN LAM MODEL THERE IS A CHANCE THAT LOW
END SCA LEVEL WINDS COULD CONTINUE IN THE STRAIT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH W WA FROM THE NW ON
MONDAY...CROSSING THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
TO STRONGLY INCREASE THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON MONDAY AS IT
APPROACHES. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SOLID GALE
FORCE WESTERLIES IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH IS ALREADY IN EFFECT AND
WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING IN THE EARLY MORNING
FORECAST. SCA WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT.

MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCA WINDS ARE HIGHLY LIKELY IN THE STRAIT AND GALES
ARE POSSIBLE. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER
     10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
     SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE
     U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM PDT MONDAY
     FOR CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST
     ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL U.S. WATERS
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF
     JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KSEW 030342
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
842 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA MOST OF THE
COMING WEEK WITH LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE FEW
DAYS AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL COOL HIGHS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. IT WILL ALSO BRING AN
INCREASE IN NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT.
IT LOOKS GENERALLY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON MONDAY NEAR THE CASCADE CREST
WHEN SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD DRIFT UP FROM THE SOUTH IN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HEIGHTS ACTUALLY START TO RISE
ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA MOVES WELL TO
THE EAST. ONSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS ALSO WEAKEN. A WARMING TREND
SHOULD BEGIN WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY.

THE TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE AREA ON BOTH WEEKEND DAYS. HAVE
INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE WHOLE CWA ON BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S. BURKE

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NW THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS
DRY EXCEPT FOR HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING N FROM OREGON. MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW SHALLOW STRATUS TO FORM ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT...AND SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND
FROM KHQM OVER THE SW PART OF PUGET SOUND OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNDER THE STRATUS...BUT IT SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 19Z. EXCEPT FOR THE STRATUS GOOD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

KSEA...GOOD VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL MOVE E MONDAY AFTERNOON. ONSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD STRATUS OVER THE FAR SW PART OF PUGET
SOUND MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE STRATUS IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
KSEA. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY UP TO 5 KT THROUGH 06Z THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THE REST OF TONIGHT. KAM

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CASCADES THROUGH THIS WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG THROUGH
MIDWEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES TONIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN AT
TIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND E STRAIT THIS
EVENING. THE UIL-BLI PRESSURE GRADIENT IS UP TO 2.1 MB...SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT. A BRIEF GALE IS STILL A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY
THIS EVENING. A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL/EAST STRAIT TO COVER
THE WEAKENING WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING QUITE AS MUCH OVERNIGHT AS PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...SO PER THE CANADIAN LAM MODEL THERE IS A CHANCE THAT LOW
END SCA LEVEL WINDS COULD CONTINUE IN THE STRAIT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH W WA FROM THE NW ON
MONDAY...CROSSING THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
TO STRONGLY INCREASE THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON MONDAY AS IT
APPROACHES. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SOLID GALE
FORCE WESTERLIES IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH IS ALREADY IN EFFECT AND
WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING IN THE EARLY MORNING
FORECAST. SCA WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT.

MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCA WINDS ARE HIGHLY LIKELY IN THE STRAIT AND GALES
ARE POSSIBLE. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER
     10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
     SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE
     U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM PDT MONDAY
     FOR CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST
     ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL U.S. WATERS
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF
     JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KOTX 022353
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
453 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
The ongoing drought combined with high heat and low humidity will
contribute to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest.
Temperatures on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an
increase in clouds. Cooler temperatures and locally breezy winds
are expected mainly Monday through Wednesday following the arrival
of a cold front. Another threat of showers and thunderstorms
arrives next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Mon: We`ve continued with the trend of increasing
clouds with only a slight chance of thunder for the east slopes of
the Cascades and the rest of the mtn zones through Mon. The best
chance will be Mon afternoon and evening as the short- wave trough
now over Nrn Calif and Srn Oregon lifts northeast across the
region. We`re not looking for much in the way of pcpn given the
very dry sub- cloud layer below 700-600mb as well as a lack of
notable sfc-based or elevated instability. However, there still
may be sufficient instability to produce a few drops of rain for
most of Ern Wa and N Idaho late Monday. Expect winds to increase
substantially by Mon evening as this wave passes and pressure
gradients strengthen.bz

Monday night through Wednesday: Models are in good agreement of
the wave exiting north ID early Tuesday morning. The models seem
to be speeding up the time of it leaving. We do keep a chance of
showers and thunderstorms overnight Monday night into Tuesday for
the northeast corner of WA and the northern ID Panhandle. Then
through the day on Tuesday the best chance of showers and
thunderstorms will reside along the US/Canadian border. The closed
low in central British Columbia will swing a wave into the area
Tuesday and another one on Wednesday. Both times the best chance
of showers and thunderstorms will reside along the border. Took
out chance of precipitation across the Blue Mountains and Camas
Prairie, as it looks like best potential remains further north. Am
not as excited about thunder potential, models are not showing a
lot of instability. The main concern Tuesday and Wednesday will be
winds. Each afternoon westerly winds will increase with winds
peaking the late afternoon and early evening hours. Even though
our temperatures will finally approach near average values on
Tuesday and maybe actually below average values by Wednesday...it
will still be very very dry. The breezy winds combined with low
daytime relative humidity values will create fire weather concerns
each day. Have issued a fire weather watch for Tuesday with the
possibility of needing one for Wednesday as well for the Kittitas
Valley. Winds will actually be more widespread than just in the
Kittitas, but for now it looks like this area will have the best
chance of reaching red flag conditions. Breezy winds are also
expected across the Wenatchee Valley...Waterville Plateau and into
the Columbia Basin/Palouse and Spokane areas. /Nisbet

Wednesday night through Sunday: Models continue to suffer from
some consistency issues, but a general trend suggests the Inland
NW will be in a progressive pattern with shower chances early this
period and again toward the weekend. Temperatures are forecast to
be near to slightly below average at the periods start, warm up
into Saturday and cool down toward next Sunday again.

So first Wednesday night into Thursday an upper trough will
continue to exit. The threat of showers will linger near the
Cascades and Canadian border, but the better lift and instability
will be north of the region. Otherwise look for thinning middle to
high clouds. It is possible there could also be lingering wildfire
smoke but there are too many variable, many of which are non-
meteorological, to have much confidence. Then Thursday night into
Friday shortwave a flat ridge enters, with continued dry weather.

From Friday night into Sunday a couple features move on the
region. First a trough in the Pacific moves toward the coast. One
or two impulses rounding it will have opportunity to move across
the Cascades and northern mountains, if not the entire region.
There is disagreement on the strength and track of these impulses.
Yet it is enough to suggest increased clouds through the region
starting Friday night and a shower/thunderstorm threat by the
weekend across the Cascades and northern mountains. Secondly low
pressure off the CA coast is projected to shift inland Friday and
track northeast Friday night into the weekend, at least skimming
by southeast WA and the lower Panhandle. This too will lead to
some increased cloud cover throughout the region. A threat of
showers and thunderstorms from this feature comes toward the Blues
and Camas Prairie Friday night. In tandem with energy coming
around the Pacific trough, this threat expand throughout the
Panhandle mountains by next weekend. Whether the precipitation
threat will also extend into the eastern Columbia Basin and
eastern valleys next weekend is less certain given the wide range
of model solutions. However given the opportunity for the
atmosphere to become increasingly moist with each passing wave and
some semblance of this threat amongst the model solutions, I added
a slight chance to aforementioned areas for next Sunday. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Wildfire smoke will continue to reduce visibilities to
between 4-7 miles over much of the region...with greater
restrictions around Chelan. A weak weather disturbance passing
through tomorrow will result in mainly mid and high level
clouds...with a few sprinkles possibly reaching the surface. There
will also be a slight chance of thunderstorms on Monday in the
Cascades. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  94  67  87  60  83 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  59  94  65  87  58  83 /   0   0  20  10  10  10
Pullman        56  93  59  87  55  82 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Lewiston       68  96  69  94  64  90 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       57  96  60  89  57  87 /   0  10  20  20  20  20
Sandpoint      52  96  54  84  53  81 /   0   0  30  20  10  10
Kellogg        58  94  64  85  55  81 /   0   0  30  30  20  10
Moses Lake     66  94  63  93  60  88 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      73  93  70  93  66  88 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Omak           68  95  65  92  59  89 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 022353
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
453 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
The ongoing drought combined with high heat and low humidity will
contribute to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest.
Temperatures on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an
increase in clouds. Cooler temperatures and locally breezy winds
are expected mainly Monday through Wednesday following the arrival
of a cold front. Another threat of showers and thunderstorms
arrives next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Mon: We`ve continued with the trend of increasing
clouds with only a slight chance of thunder for the east slopes of
the Cascades and the rest of the mtn zones through Mon. The best
chance will be Mon afternoon and evening as the short- wave trough
now over Nrn Calif and Srn Oregon lifts northeast across the
region. We`re not looking for much in the way of pcpn given the
very dry sub- cloud layer below 700-600mb as well as a lack of
notable sfc-based or elevated instability. However, there still
may be sufficient instability to produce a few drops of rain for
most of Ern Wa and N Idaho late Monday. Expect winds to increase
substantially by Mon evening as this wave passes and pressure
gradients strengthen.bz

Monday night through Wednesday: Models are in good agreement of
the wave exiting north ID early Tuesday morning. The models seem
to be speeding up the time of it leaving. We do keep a chance of
showers and thunderstorms overnight Monday night into Tuesday for
the northeast corner of WA and the northern ID Panhandle. Then
through the day on Tuesday the best chance of showers and
thunderstorms will reside along the US/Canadian border. The closed
low in central British Columbia will swing a wave into the area
Tuesday and another one on Wednesday. Both times the best chance
of showers and thunderstorms will reside along the border. Took
out chance of precipitation across the Blue Mountains and Camas
Prairie, as it looks like best potential remains further north. Am
not as excited about thunder potential, models are not showing a
lot of instability. The main concern Tuesday and Wednesday will be
winds. Each afternoon westerly winds will increase with winds
peaking the late afternoon and early evening hours. Even though
our temperatures will finally approach near average values on
Tuesday and maybe actually below average values by Wednesday...it
will still be very very dry. The breezy winds combined with low
daytime relative humidity values will create fire weather concerns
each day. Have issued a fire weather watch for Tuesday with the
possibility of needing one for Wednesday as well for the Kittitas
Valley. Winds will actually be more widespread than just in the
Kittitas, but for now it looks like this area will have the best
chance of reaching red flag conditions. Breezy winds are also
expected across the Wenatchee Valley...Waterville Plateau and into
the Columbia Basin/Palouse and Spokane areas. /Nisbet

Wednesday night through Sunday: Models continue to suffer from
some consistency issues, but a general trend suggests the Inland
NW will be in a progressive pattern with shower chances early this
period and again toward the weekend. Temperatures are forecast to
be near to slightly below average at the periods start, warm up
into Saturday and cool down toward next Sunday again.

So first Wednesday night into Thursday an upper trough will
continue to exit. The threat of showers will linger near the
Cascades and Canadian border, but the better lift and instability
will be north of the region. Otherwise look for thinning middle to
high clouds. It is possible there could also be lingering wildfire
smoke but there are too many variable, many of which are non-
meteorological, to have much confidence. Then Thursday night into
Friday shortwave a flat ridge enters, with continued dry weather.

From Friday night into Sunday a couple features move on the
region. First a trough in the Pacific moves toward the coast. One
or two impulses rounding it will have opportunity to move across
the Cascades and northern mountains, if not the entire region.
There is disagreement on the strength and track of these impulses.
Yet it is enough to suggest increased clouds through the region
starting Friday night and a shower/thunderstorm threat by the
weekend across the Cascades and northern mountains. Secondly low
pressure off the CA coast is projected to shift inland Friday and
track northeast Friday night into the weekend, at least skimming
by southeast WA and the lower Panhandle. This too will lead to
some increased cloud cover throughout the region. A threat of
showers and thunderstorms from this feature comes toward the Blues
and Camas Prairie Friday night. In tandem with energy coming
around the Pacific trough, this threat expand throughout the
Panhandle mountains by next weekend. Whether the precipitation
threat will also extend into the eastern Columbia Basin and
eastern valleys next weekend is less certain given the wide range
of model solutions. However given the opportunity for the
atmosphere to become increasingly moist with each passing wave and
some semblance of this threat amongst the model solutions, I added
a slight chance to aforementioned areas for next Sunday. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Wildfire smoke will continue to reduce visibilities to
between 4-7 miles over much of the region...with greater
restrictions around Chelan. A weak weather disturbance passing
through tomorrow will result in mainly mid and high level
clouds...with a few sprinkles possibly reaching the surface. There
will also be a slight chance of thunderstorms on Monday in the
Cascades. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  94  67  87  60  83 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  59  94  65  87  58  83 /   0   0  20  10  10  10
Pullman        56  93  59  87  55  82 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Lewiston       68  96  69  94  64  90 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       57  96  60  89  57  87 /   0  10  20  20  20  20
Sandpoint      52  96  54  84  53  81 /   0   0  30  20  10  10
Kellogg        58  94  64  85  55  81 /   0   0  30  30  20  10
Moses Lake     66  94  63  93  60  88 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      73  93  70  93  66  88 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Omak           68  95  65  92  59  89 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 022219
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
315 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY RETURN BY TUESDAY...BRINGING AREAS OF MORNING
CLOUDS AND LOWER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL GIVE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AFTER A
DRY DAY FRIDAY SHOWERS COULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST BUT MOST AREAS HAVE RECEIVED PLENTY OF SUN TODAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOTABLY LOWER TODAY FROM ABOUT SEATTLE NORTH AND IT
APPEARS THE STREAK OF 90+ DAYS AT KSEA IS OVER. THERE PROBABLY WILL
BE SOME 90+ DEGREE HIGHS OVER THE SOUTHWEST.

LATER TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH CASCADES AND
THESE WILL SPREAD NORTH TO THE REST OF THE CASCADES MONDAY.
MEANWHILE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT SHOULD BRING SOME STRATUS TO
THE COAST AND SOME DISTANCE INLAND...THEN IT WILL EVAPORATE BACK TO
THE COAST BY NOON OR SO. HEIGHTS MONDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER
THAN TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA MOVES CLOSER. THE
UPSHOT WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S INLAND AND NEAR 70 ON THE COAST.

ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER MONDAY NIGHT AND MARINE
CLOUDS SHOULD PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND AND PERSIST LONGER. HEIGHTS
ARE LOWER YET ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S
THOUGH THE COAST MAY NOT REACH 70. THE PATTERN WILL BE SIMILAR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SIMILAR TEMPS WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES A BIT CLOSER. BURKE

.LONG TERM...HEIGHTS ACTUALLY START TO RISE ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA MOVES WELL TO THE EAST. ONSHORE SURFACE
GRADIENTS ALSO WEAKEN. A WARMING TREND SHOULD BEGIN WITH HIGHS BACK
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY.

THE TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE AREA ON BOTH WEEKEND DAYS. HAVE
INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE WHOLE CWA ON BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S. BURKE

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE BUT GENERALLY DRY...EXCEPT FOR SHALLOW MARINE
MOISTURE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

THERE IS LITTLE OR NO STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY HIGH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. MARINE STRATUS WILL PROBABLY FORM OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE COASTAL ZONES...LOWER CHEHALIS
VALLEY...AND STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA FOR LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS LATER
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD BURN OFF IN MOST AREAS MIDDAY
MONDAY.

KSEA...NORTHWEST WIND 4-10 KT...BECOMING VARIABLE 6 KT OR LESS
TONIGHT...THEN NORTHWEST 4-10 KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST
OF THE CASCADES THROUGH THIS WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG THROUGH MIDWEEK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS ZONES TONIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN AT TIMES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BRIEF WESTERLY GALES OCCURRED IN THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT SATURDAY EVENING... AND CONDITIONS
LOOK SIMILAR THIS EVENING. IN FACT THE QUILLAYUTE TO BELLINGHAM
PRESSURE DIFFERENCE -- A KEY INDICATOR -- IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THIS
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH...BUT I THINK THERE IS
A GOOD ENOUGH CHANCE FOR BRIEF WESTERLY GALES THIS EVENING TO ISSUE
A GALE WARNING WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. PSPC VANCOUVER ALSO HAS
A GALE WARNING IN EFFECT. GALE FORCE WESTERLIES ARE A GOOD BET
MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE FORECAST IS FOR 30 TO 40 KT. THEY COULD OCCUR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL.   MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT ZONE 150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT UNTIL 6 PM TODAY.
     GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT FROM 6 PM TO MIDNIGHT.
     GALE WATCH CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 022219
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
315 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY RETURN BY TUESDAY...BRINGING AREAS OF MORNING
CLOUDS AND LOWER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL GIVE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AFTER A
DRY DAY FRIDAY SHOWERS COULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST BUT MOST AREAS HAVE RECEIVED PLENTY OF SUN TODAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOTABLY LOWER TODAY FROM ABOUT SEATTLE NORTH AND IT
APPEARS THE STREAK OF 90+ DAYS AT KSEA IS OVER. THERE PROBABLY WILL
BE SOME 90+ DEGREE HIGHS OVER THE SOUTHWEST.

LATER TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH CASCADES AND
THESE WILL SPREAD NORTH TO THE REST OF THE CASCADES MONDAY.
MEANWHILE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT SHOULD BRING SOME STRATUS TO
THE COAST AND SOME DISTANCE INLAND...THEN IT WILL EVAPORATE BACK TO
THE COAST BY NOON OR SO. HEIGHTS MONDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER
THAN TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA MOVES CLOSER. THE
UPSHOT WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S INLAND AND NEAR 70 ON THE COAST.

ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER MONDAY NIGHT AND MARINE
CLOUDS SHOULD PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND AND PERSIST LONGER. HEIGHTS
ARE LOWER YET ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S
THOUGH THE COAST MAY NOT REACH 70. THE PATTERN WILL BE SIMILAR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SIMILAR TEMPS WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES A BIT CLOSER. BURKE

.LONG TERM...HEIGHTS ACTUALLY START TO RISE ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA MOVES WELL TO THE EAST. ONSHORE SURFACE
GRADIENTS ALSO WEAKEN. A WARMING TREND SHOULD BEGIN WITH HIGHS BACK
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY.

THE TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE AREA ON BOTH WEEKEND DAYS. HAVE
INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE WHOLE CWA ON BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S. BURKE

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE BUT GENERALLY DRY...EXCEPT FOR SHALLOW MARINE
MOISTURE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

THERE IS LITTLE OR NO STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY HIGH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. MARINE STRATUS WILL PROBABLY FORM OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE COASTAL ZONES...LOWER CHEHALIS
VALLEY...AND STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA FOR LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS LATER
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD BURN OFF IN MOST AREAS MIDDAY
MONDAY.

KSEA...NORTHWEST WIND 4-10 KT...BECOMING VARIABLE 6 KT OR LESS
TONIGHT...THEN NORTHWEST 4-10 KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST
OF THE CASCADES THROUGH THIS WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG THROUGH MIDWEEK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS ZONES TONIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN AT TIMES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BRIEF WESTERLY GALES OCCURRED IN THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT SATURDAY EVENING... AND CONDITIONS
LOOK SIMILAR THIS EVENING. IN FACT THE QUILLAYUTE TO BELLINGHAM
PRESSURE DIFFERENCE -- A KEY INDICATOR -- IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THIS
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH...BUT I THINK THERE IS
A GOOD ENOUGH CHANCE FOR BRIEF WESTERLY GALES THIS EVENING TO ISSUE
A GALE WARNING WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. PSPC VANCOUVER ALSO HAS
A GALE WARNING IN EFFECT. GALE FORCE WESTERLIES ARE A GOOD BET
MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE FORECAST IS FOR 30 TO 40 KT. THEY COULD OCCUR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL.   MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT ZONE 150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT UNTIL 6 PM TODAY.
     GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT FROM 6 PM TO MIDNIGHT.
     GALE WATCH CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 022219
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
315 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY RETURN BY TUESDAY...BRINGING AREAS OF MORNING
CLOUDS AND LOWER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL GIVE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AFTER A
DRY DAY FRIDAY SHOWERS COULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST BUT MOST AREAS HAVE RECEIVED PLENTY OF SUN TODAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOTABLY LOWER TODAY FROM ABOUT SEATTLE NORTH AND IT
APPEARS THE STREAK OF 90+ DAYS AT KSEA IS OVER. THERE PROBABLY WILL
BE SOME 90+ DEGREE HIGHS OVER THE SOUTHWEST.

LATER TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH CASCADES AND
THESE WILL SPREAD NORTH TO THE REST OF THE CASCADES MONDAY.
MEANWHILE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT SHOULD BRING SOME STRATUS TO
THE COAST AND SOME DISTANCE INLAND...THEN IT WILL EVAPORATE BACK TO
THE COAST BY NOON OR SO. HEIGHTS MONDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER
THAN TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA MOVES CLOSER. THE
UPSHOT WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S INLAND AND NEAR 70 ON THE COAST.

ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER MONDAY NIGHT AND MARINE
CLOUDS SHOULD PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND AND PERSIST LONGER. HEIGHTS
ARE LOWER YET ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S
THOUGH THE COAST MAY NOT REACH 70. THE PATTERN WILL BE SIMILAR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SIMILAR TEMPS WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES A BIT CLOSER. BURKE

.LONG TERM...HEIGHTS ACTUALLY START TO RISE ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA MOVES WELL TO THE EAST. ONSHORE SURFACE
GRADIENTS ALSO WEAKEN. A WARMING TREND SHOULD BEGIN WITH HIGHS BACK
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY.

THE TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE AREA ON BOTH WEEKEND DAYS. HAVE
INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE WHOLE CWA ON BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S. BURKE

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE BUT GENERALLY DRY...EXCEPT FOR SHALLOW MARINE
MOISTURE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

THERE IS LITTLE OR NO STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY HIGH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. MARINE STRATUS WILL PROBABLY FORM OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE COASTAL ZONES...LOWER CHEHALIS
VALLEY...AND STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA FOR LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS LATER
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD BURN OFF IN MOST AREAS MIDDAY
MONDAY.

KSEA...NORTHWEST WIND 4-10 KT...BECOMING VARIABLE 6 KT OR LESS
TONIGHT...THEN NORTHWEST 4-10 KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST
OF THE CASCADES THROUGH THIS WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG THROUGH MIDWEEK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS ZONES TONIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN AT TIMES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BRIEF WESTERLY GALES OCCURRED IN THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT SATURDAY EVENING... AND CONDITIONS
LOOK SIMILAR THIS EVENING. IN FACT THE QUILLAYUTE TO BELLINGHAM
PRESSURE DIFFERENCE -- A KEY INDICATOR -- IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THIS
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH...BUT I THINK THERE IS
A GOOD ENOUGH CHANCE FOR BRIEF WESTERLY GALES THIS EVENING TO ISSUE
A GALE WARNING WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. PSPC VANCOUVER ALSO HAS
A GALE WARNING IN EFFECT. GALE FORCE WESTERLIES ARE A GOOD BET
MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE FORECAST IS FOR 30 TO 40 KT. THEY COULD OCCUR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL.   MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT ZONE 150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT UNTIL 6 PM TODAY.
     GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT FROM 6 PM TO MIDNIGHT.
     GALE WATCH CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 022219
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
315 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY RETURN BY TUESDAY...BRINGING AREAS OF MORNING
CLOUDS AND LOWER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL GIVE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AFTER A
DRY DAY FRIDAY SHOWERS COULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST BUT MOST AREAS HAVE RECEIVED PLENTY OF SUN TODAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOTABLY LOWER TODAY FROM ABOUT SEATTLE NORTH AND IT
APPEARS THE STREAK OF 90+ DAYS AT KSEA IS OVER. THERE PROBABLY WILL
BE SOME 90+ DEGREE HIGHS OVER THE SOUTHWEST.

LATER TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH CASCADES AND
THESE WILL SPREAD NORTH TO THE REST OF THE CASCADES MONDAY.
MEANWHILE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT SHOULD BRING SOME STRATUS TO
THE COAST AND SOME DISTANCE INLAND...THEN IT WILL EVAPORATE BACK TO
THE COAST BY NOON OR SO. HEIGHTS MONDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER
THAN TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA MOVES CLOSER. THE
UPSHOT WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S INLAND AND NEAR 70 ON THE COAST.

ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER MONDAY NIGHT AND MARINE
CLOUDS SHOULD PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND AND PERSIST LONGER. HEIGHTS
ARE LOWER YET ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S
THOUGH THE COAST MAY NOT REACH 70. THE PATTERN WILL BE SIMILAR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SIMILAR TEMPS WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES A BIT CLOSER. BURKE

.LONG TERM...HEIGHTS ACTUALLY START TO RISE ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA MOVES WELL TO THE EAST. ONSHORE SURFACE
GRADIENTS ALSO WEAKEN. A WARMING TREND SHOULD BEGIN WITH HIGHS BACK
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY.

THE TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE AREA ON BOTH WEEKEND DAYS. HAVE
INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE WHOLE CWA ON BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S. BURKE

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE BUT GENERALLY DRY...EXCEPT FOR SHALLOW MARINE
MOISTURE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

THERE IS LITTLE OR NO STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY HIGH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. MARINE STRATUS WILL PROBABLY FORM OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE COASTAL ZONES...LOWER CHEHALIS
VALLEY...AND STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA FOR LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS LATER
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD BURN OFF IN MOST AREAS MIDDAY
MONDAY.

KSEA...NORTHWEST WIND 4-10 KT...BECOMING VARIABLE 6 KT OR LESS
TONIGHT...THEN NORTHWEST 4-10 KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST
OF THE CASCADES THROUGH THIS WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG THROUGH MIDWEEK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS ZONES TONIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN AT TIMES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BRIEF WESTERLY GALES OCCURRED IN THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT SATURDAY EVENING... AND CONDITIONS
LOOK SIMILAR THIS EVENING. IN FACT THE QUILLAYUTE TO BELLINGHAM
PRESSURE DIFFERENCE -- A KEY INDICATOR -- IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THIS
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH...BUT I THINK THERE IS
A GOOD ENOUGH CHANCE FOR BRIEF WESTERLY GALES THIS EVENING TO ISSUE
A GALE WARNING WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. PSPC VANCOUVER ALSO HAS
A GALE WARNING IN EFFECT. GALE FORCE WESTERLIES ARE A GOOD BET
MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE FORECAST IS FOR 30 TO 40 KT. THEY COULD OCCUR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL.   MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT ZONE 150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT UNTIL 6 PM TODAY.
     GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT FROM 6 PM TO MIDNIGHT.
     GALE WATCH CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KPQR 022153
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
253 PM PDT SUN AUG  2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AS A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES
TO MOVE EAST TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
CONTINUES TO STEER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN
OREGON AND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. THIS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR A THREAT OF SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE B.C. COAST
WILL BEGIN MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT
AND ON MONDAY...AND HAVE AN INCREASING IMPACT OVER SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD FOR COOLER
TEMPS AND MORE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...CONVECTIVE CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TODAY AS A STEADY STREAM OF MID AND HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH FROM THE SIERRAS AND FROM NEVADA...BEING
STEERED BY AN UPPER LOW LOCATED WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND WERE THICKEST OVER THE COAST RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THE SIERRAS...AND NORTHERN NEVADA THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS CLOUD
COVER IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
THE MODELS SHOW A DECENT JET SEGMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AS
IT MOVES THROUGH...GIVING SUPPORT TO THE IDEA OF ELEVATED NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION CONTINUING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS HOW THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED OVER THE LAST 24 TO 36 HOURS.

THE SHORT WAVE OR VORTICITY LOBE AND MOISTURE AREA WILL STILL BE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

DESPITE A RATHER WARM AIR MASS REMAINING OVER OUR AREA...THE CLOUDS
HAVE SUPPRESSED TEMPERATURES THOUGH THE HUMIDITY HAS RISEN QUITE A
BIT WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. UNLESS MORE SUNBREAKS
DEVELOP THAN ARE NOW EXPECTED...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL HAVE TROUBLE
REACHING 90 DEGREES TODAY...AND SO WILL END THE HEAT ADVISORY.

BY MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL BE SAGGING SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TURN THE
UPPER FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...AND LIMIT THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER MONDAY TO OUR SOUTHERN CASCADE AREAS AND
TO ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CREST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTH WITH MORE ENERGY IN WASHINGTON BY TUESDAY... WITH MORE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON.
AGAIN...THE MAIN THREAT OF THUNDER FOR OUR AREA WILL BE NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS LATER TUESDAY...AND EVEN THAT IS NOT CERTAIN.

THE MARINE LAYER WAS AGAIN SHALLOW AND CONFINED TO NEAR THE COAST
THIS MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY THICKEN SOME FROM THE
SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS THROUGH...
POSSIBLY TRYING TO PUSH INTO THE COASTAL GAPS BY MONDAY MORNING...
BUT INLAND COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY. EXPECT BETTER INLAND COVERAGE OF
LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...WITH THE INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH.

WE WILL PROBABLY SEE MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON THAN THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH A GRADUAL COOLING OF THE AIR MASS. TEMPS WILL
TEND TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S...COOLEST NORTH. TEMPS WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER THE NORTHWEST ONSHORE
FLOW. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK/FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. WITH
DECREASING ONSHORE FLOW WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO
THE MID 80S BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO ITS TIMING AND STRENGTH. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON
CASCADES. AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PUSHES INLAND WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON SOME
LINGERING INSTABILITY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CASCADES. TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND LOOK TO FALL BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS. /64
&&

.AVIATION...BROAD AREA OF INSTABILITY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. MOSTLY MID LEVEL SHOWERS AT THIS POINT ALTHOUGH THERE
IS THUNDERSTORM ACTION FROM ABOUT KRBG TO THE SOUTH AND WELL OFFSHORE
AT THIS HOUR. EXPECT THE GENERAL THREAT FOR THUNDER TO MOVE NORTH
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
MOVING NORTH ACTS AS A LIFTING TRIGGER. IN GENERAL...AM EXPECTING
ISOLATED COVERAGE WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THOSE SINGLE STORMS
WILL SPECIFICALLY DEVELOP AND THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TAF INCLUSION
AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND AS CONDITIONS
EVOLVE. REGARDLESS...COULD GET SOME OUTFLOW GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS WITH
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF 35 KTS FROM THE STORMS THAT DO FORM. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH LOW CLOUD FROM THESE SHOWERS OR STORMS AND NOT ANY VSBY
REDUCTIONS EITHER.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE STRATUS IMPACTS AT THE COAST TODAY AND A BIT
LONGER THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. IT HAS BURNED OFF AT KAST AND SOUTH
THROUGH KTMK BUT STILL APPEARS TO BE IN THE VCTY OF KONP WHERE
REDUCTIONS RECENTLY OCCURRED. CONTINUING TO HAVE A HARD TIME
FOLLOWING STRATUS MOVEMENT VIA SATELLITE AS THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE OBSCURING. HAVE NO REASON TO DOUBT LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN
TONIGHT. /JBONK

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM. BEST TIMING WILL BE
FROM 23Z THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL SURFACE PATTERN FOR THE WEEK
AHEAD WITH N WINDS OVER THE WATERS. HAVE CUT BACK THE COVERAGE OF THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS TO COVER JUST THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS. MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON CURRENT CLOUD COVER OVER SW OREGON
AND NRN CALIFORNIA MAY INHIBITING THE STRENGTH OF THE LAND HEATING
AND THUS THE LIGHTER WINDS OVERALL. STILL COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
WELL. DONT FEEL LIKE THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BUT COULD SEE SOME OUTFLOW GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT
UNDER THE STRONGEST CELLS.

MEANWHILE...THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE GENERATING A STEEP
FRESH SWELL 5 TO 6 FEET AT 7 TO 9 SECONDS. STILL AM SEEING OCCASIONAL
SQUARE SEAS OUT AT BUOY 89 WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LONG PERIOD SW
SWELL. THEY CONTINUE TO BE ISOLATED AND SPORADIC WITH FOCUS TOWARD
THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF OUR BORDERS. AS SUCH...DROPPED THE ADVISORY
FOR SEAS EARLIER TODAY. STILL FAIRLY STEEP NONETHELESS. /JBONK

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 022153
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
253 PM PDT SUN AUG  2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AS A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES
TO MOVE EAST TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
CONTINUES TO STEER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN
OREGON AND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. THIS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR A THREAT OF SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE B.C. COAST
WILL BEGIN MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT
AND ON MONDAY...AND HAVE AN INCREASING IMPACT OVER SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD FOR COOLER
TEMPS AND MORE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...CONVECTIVE CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TODAY AS A STEADY STREAM OF MID AND HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH FROM THE SIERRAS AND FROM NEVADA...BEING
STEERED BY AN UPPER LOW LOCATED WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND WERE THICKEST OVER THE COAST RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THE SIERRAS...AND NORTHERN NEVADA THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS CLOUD
COVER IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
THE MODELS SHOW A DECENT JET SEGMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AS
IT MOVES THROUGH...GIVING SUPPORT TO THE IDEA OF ELEVATED NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION CONTINUING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS HOW THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED OVER THE LAST 24 TO 36 HOURS.

THE SHORT WAVE OR VORTICITY LOBE AND MOISTURE AREA WILL STILL BE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

DESPITE A RATHER WARM AIR MASS REMAINING OVER OUR AREA...THE CLOUDS
HAVE SUPPRESSED TEMPERATURES THOUGH THE HUMIDITY HAS RISEN QUITE A
BIT WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. UNLESS MORE SUNBREAKS
DEVELOP THAN ARE NOW EXPECTED...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL HAVE TROUBLE
REACHING 90 DEGREES TODAY...AND SO WILL END THE HEAT ADVISORY.

BY MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL BE SAGGING SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TURN THE
UPPER FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...AND LIMIT THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER MONDAY TO OUR SOUTHERN CASCADE AREAS AND
TO ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CREST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTH WITH MORE ENERGY IN WASHINGTON BY TUESDAY... WITH MORE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON.
AGAIN...THE MAIN THREAT OF THUNDER FOR OUR AREA WILL BE NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS LATER TUESDAY...AND EVEN THAT IS NOT CERTAIN.

THE MARINE LAYER WAS AGAIN SHALLOW AND CONFINED TO NEAR THE COAST
THIS MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY THICKEN SOME FROM THE
SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS THROUGH...
POSSIBLY TRYING TO PUSH INTO THE COASTAL GAPS BY MONDAY MORNING...
BUT INLAND COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY. EXPECT BETTER INLAND COVERAGE OF
LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...WITH THE INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH.

WE WILL PROBABLY SEE MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON THAN THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH A GRADUAL COOLING OF THE AIR MASS. TEMPS WILL
TEND TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S...COOLEST NORTH. TEMPS WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER THE NORTHWEST ONSHORE
FLOW. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK/FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. WITH
DECREASING ONSHORE FLOW WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO
THE MID 80S BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO ITS TIMING AND STRENGTH. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON
CASCADES. AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PUSHES INLAND WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON SOME
LINGERING INSTABILITY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CASCADES. TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND LOOK TO FALL BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS. /64
&&

.AVIATION...BROAD AREA OF INSTABILITY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. MOSTLY MID LEVEL SHOWERS AT THIS POINT ALTHOUGH THERE
IS THUNDERSTORM ACTION FROM ABOUT KRBG TO THE SOUTH AND WELL OFFSHORE
AT THIS HOUR. EXPECT THE GENERAL THREAT FOR THUNDER TO MOVE NORTH
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
MOVING NORTH ACTS AS A LIFTING TRIGGER. IN GENERAL...AM EXPECTING
ISOLATED COVERAGE WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THOSE SINGLE STORMS
WILL SPECIFICALLY DEVELOP AND THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TAF INCLUSION
AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND AS CONDITIONS
EVOLVE. REGARDLESS...COULD GET SOME OUTFLOW GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS WITH
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF 35 KTS FROM THE STORMS THAT DO FORM. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH LOW CLOUD FROM THESE SHOWERS OR STORMS AND NOT ANY VSBY
REDUCTIONS EITHER.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE STRATUS IMPACTS AT THE COAST TODAY AND A BIT
LONGER THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. IT HAS BURNED OFF AT KAST AND SOUTH
THROUGH KTMK BUT STILL APPEARS TO BE IN THE VCTY OF KONP WHERE
REDUCTIONS RECENTLY OCCURRED. CONTINUING TO HAVE A HARD TIME
FOLLOWING STRATUS MOVEMENT VIA SATELLITE AS THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE OBSCURING. HAVE NO REASON TO DOUBT LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN
TONIGHT. /JBONK

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM. BEST TIMING WILL BE
FROM 23Z THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL SURFACE PATTERN FOR THE WEEK
AHEAD WITH N WINDS OVER THE WATERS. HAVE CUT BACK THE COVERAGE OF THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS TO COVER JUST THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS. MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON CURRENT CLOUD COVER OVER SW OREGON
AND NRN CALIFORNIA MAY INHIBITING THE STRENGTH OF THE LAND HEATING
AND THUS THE LIGHTER WINDS OVERALL. STILL COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
WELL. DONT FEEL LIKE THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BUT COULD SEE SOME OUTFLOW GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT
UNDER THE STRONGEST CELLS.

MEANWHILE...THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE GENERATING A STEEP
FRESH SWELL 5 TO 6 FEET AT 7 TO 9 SECONDS. STILL AM SEEING OCCASIONAL
SQUARE SEAS OUT AT BUOY 89 WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LONG PERIOD SW
SWELL. THEY CONTINUE TO BE ISOLATED AND SPORADIC WITH FOCUS TOWARD
THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF OUR BORDERS. AS SUCH...DROPPED THE ADVISORY
FOR SEAS EARLIER TODAY. STILL FAIRLY STEEP NONETHELESS. /JBONK

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 022151
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
251 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
The ongoing drought combined with high heat and low humidity will
contribute to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest.
Temperatures on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an
increase in clouds. Cooler temperatures and locally breezy winds
are expected mainly Monday through Wednesday following the arrival
of a cold front. Another threat of showers and thunderstorms
arrives next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Mon: We`ve continued with the trend of increasing
clouds with only a slight chance of thunder for the east slopes of
the Cascades and the rest of the mtn zones through Mon. The best
chance will be Mon afternoon and evening as the short- wave trough
now over Nrn Calif and Srn Oregon lifts northeast across the
region. We`re not looking for much in the way of pcpn given the
very dry sub- cloud layer below 700-600mb as well as a lack of
notable sfc-based or elevated instability. However, there still
may be sufficient instability to produce a few drops of rain for
most of Ern Wa and N Idaho late Monday. Expect winds to increase
substantially by Mon evening as this wave passes and pressure
gradients strengthen.bz

Monday night through Wednesday: Models are in good agreement of
the wave exiting north ID early Tuesday morning. The models seem
to be speeding up the time of it leaving. We do keep a chance of
showers and thunderstorms overnight Monday night into Tuesday for
the northeast corner of WA and the northern ID Panhandle. Then
through the day on Tuesday the best chance of showers and
thunderstorms will reside along the US/Canadian border. The closed
low in central British Columbia will swing a wave into the area
Tuesday and another one on Wednesday. Both times the best chance
of showers and thunderstorms will reside along the border. Took
out chance of precipitation across the Blue Mountains and Camas
Prairie, as it looks like best potential remains further north. Am
not as excited about thunder potential, models are not showing a
lot of instability. The main concern Tuesday and Wednesday will be
winds. Each afternoon westerly winds will increase with winds
peaking the late afternoon and early evening hours. Even though
our temperatures will finally approach near average values on
Tuesday and maybe actually below average values by Wednesday...it
will still be very very dry. The breezy winds combined with low
daytime relative humidity values will create fire weather concerns
each day. Have issued a fire weather watch for Tuesday with the
possibility of needing one for Wednesday as well for the Kittitas
Valley. Winds will actually be more widespread than just in the
Kittitas, but for now it looks like this area will have the best
chance of reaching red flag conditions. Breezy winds are also
expected across the Wenatchee Valley...Waterville Plateau and into
the Columbia Basin/Palouse and Spokane areas. /Nisbet

Wednesday night through Sunday: Models continue to suffer from
some consistency issues, but a general trend suggests the Inland
NW will be in a progressive pattern with shower chances early this
period and again toward the weekend. Temperatures are forecast to
be near to slightly below average at the periods start, warm up
into Saturday and cool down toward next Sunday again.

So first Wednesday night into Thursday an upper trough will
continue to exit. The threat of showers will linger near the
Cascades and Canadian border, but the better lift and instability
will be north of the region. Otherwise look for thinning middle to
high clouds. It is possible there could also be lingering wildfire
smoke but there are too many variable, many of which are non-
meteorological, to have much confidence. Then Thursday night into
Friday shortwave a flat ridge enters, with continued dry weather.

From Friday night into Sunday a couple features move on the
region. First a trough in the Pacific moves toward the coast. One
or two impulses rounding it will have opportunity to move across
the Cascades and northern mountains, if not the entire region.
There is disagreement on the strength and track of these impulses.
Yet it is enough to suggest increased clouds through the region
starting Friday night and a shower/thunderstorm threat by the
weekend across the Cascades and northern mountains. Secondly low
pressure off the CA coast is projected to shift inland Friday and
track northeast Friday night into the weekend, at least skimming
by southeast WA and the lower Panhandle. This too will lead to
some increased cloud cover throughout the region. A threat of
showers and thunderstorms from this feature comes toward the Blues
and Camas Prairie Friday night. In tandem with energy coming
around the Pacific trough, this threat expand throughout the
Panhandle mountains by next weekend. Whether the precipitation
threat will also extend into the eastern Columbia Basin and
eastern valleys next weekend is less certain given the wide range
of model solutions. However given the opportunity for the
atmosphere to become increasingly moist with each passing wave and
some semblance of this threat amongst the model solutions, I added
a slight chance to aforementioned areas for next Sunday. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Areas of smoke will not be a big concern, though vsbys
may tempo-down to near MVFR briefly. Otherwise the smoke will be
either. Mid and high level clouds will increase...with winds
remaining around 10kt this afternoon. Local higher gusts are
possible. Downslope gap winds will increase after 02z especially
in KEAT where speeds will reach around 15kt. bz


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  94  67  87  60  83 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  59  94  65  87  58  83 /   0   0  20  10  10  10
Pullman        56  93  59  87  55  82 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Lewiston       68  96  69  94  64  90 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       57  96  60  89  57  87 /   0  10  20  20  20  20
Sandpoint      52  96  54  84  53  81 /   0   0  30  20  10  10
Kellogg        58  94  64  85  55  81 /   0   0  30  30  20  10
Moses Lake     66  94  63  93  60  88 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      73  93  70  93  66  88 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Omak           68  95  65  92  59  89 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 022151
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
251 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
The ongoing drought combined with high heat and low humidity will
contribute to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest.
Temperatures on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an
increase in clouds. Cooler temperatures and locally breezy winds
are expected mainly Monday through Wednesday following the arrival
of a cold front. Another threat of showers and thunderstorms
arrives next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Mon: We`ve continued with the trend of increasing
clouds with only a slight chance of thunder for the east slopes of
the Cascades and the rest of the mtn zones through Mon. The best
chance will be Mon afternoon and evening as the short- wave trough
now over Nrn Calif and Srn Oregon lifts northeast across the
region. We`re not looking for much in the way of pcpn given the
very dry sub- cloud layer below 700-600mb as well as a lack of
notable sfc-based or elevated instability. However, there still
may be sufficient instability to produce a few drops of rain for
most of Ern Wa and N Idaho late Monday. Expect winds to increase
substantially by Mon evening as this wave passes and pressure
gradients strengthen.bz

Monday night through Wednesday: Models are in good agreement of
the wave exiting north ID early Tuesday morning. The models seem
to be speeding up the time of it leaving. We do keep a chance of
showers and thunderstorms overnight Monday night into Tuesday for
the northeast corner of WA and the northern ID Panhandle. Then
through the day on Tuesday the best chance of showers and
thunderstorms will reside along the US/Canadian border. The closed
low in central British Columbia will swing a wave into the area
Tuesday and another one on Wednesday. Both times the best chance
of showers and thunderstorms will reside along the border. Took
out chance of precipitation across the Blue Mountains and Camas
Prairie, as it looks like best potential remains further north. Am
not as excited about thunder potential, models are not showing a
lot of instability. The main concern Tuesday and Wednesday will be
winds. Each afternoon westerly winds will increase with winds
peaking the late afternoon and early evening hours. Even though
our temperatures will finally approach near average values on
Tuesday and maybe actually below average values by Wednesday...it
will still be very very dry. The breezy winds combined with low
daytime relative humidity values will create fire weather concerns
each day. Have issued a fire weather watch for Tuesday with the
possibility of needing one for Wednesday as well for the Kittitas
Valley. Winds will actually be more widespread than just in the
Kittitas, but for now it looks like this area will have the best
chance of reaching red flag conditions. Breezy winds are also
expected across the Wenatchee Valley...Waterville Plateau and into
the Columbia Basin/Palouse and Spokane areas. /Nisbet

Wednesday night through Sunday: Models continue to suffer from
some consistency issues, but a general trend suggests the Inland
NW will be in a progressive pattern with shower chances early this
period and again toward the weekend. Temperatures are forecast to
be near to slightly below average at the periods start, warm up
into Saturday and cool down toward next Sunday again.

So first Wednesday night into Thursday an upper trough will
continue to exit. The threat of showers will linger near the
Cascades and Canadian border, but the better lift and instability
will be north of the region. Otherwise look for thinning middle to
high clouds. It is possible there could also be lingering wildfire
smoke but there are too many variable, many of which are non-
meteorological, to have much confidence. Then Thursday night into
Friday shortwave a flat ridge enters, with continued dry weather.

From Friday night into Sunday a couple features move on the
region. First a trough in the Pacific moves toward the coast. One
or two impulses rounding it will have opportunity to move across
the Cascades and northern mountains, if not the entire region.
There is disagreement on the strength and track of these impulses.
Yet it is enough to suggest increased clouds through the region
starting Friday night and a shower/thunderstorm threat by the
weekend across the Cascades and northern mountains. Secondly low
pressure off the CA coast is projected to shift inland Friday and
track northeast Friday night into the weekend, at least skimming
by southeast WA and the lower Panhandle. This too will lead to
some increased cloud cover throughout the region. A threat of
showers and thunderstorms from this feature comes toward the Blues
and Camas Prairie Friday night. In tandem with energy coming
around the Pacific trough, this threat expand throughout the
Panhandle mountains by next weekend. Whether the precipitation
threat will also extend into the eastern Columbia Basin and
eastern valleys next weekend is less certain given the wide range
of model solutions. However given the opportunity for the
atmosphere to become increasingly moist with each passing wave and
some semblance of this threat amongst the model solutions, I added
a slight chance to aforementioned areas for next Sunday. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Areas of smoke will not be a big concern, though vsbys
may tempo-down to near MVFR briefly. Otherwise the smoke will be
either. Mid and high level clouds will increase...with winds
remaining around 10kt this afternoon. Local higher gusts are
possible. Downslope gap winds will increase after 02z especially
in KEAT where speeds will reach around 15kt. bz


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  94  67  87  60  83 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  59  94  65  87  58  83 /   0   0  20  10  10  10
Pullman        56  93  59  87  55  82 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Lewiston       68  96  69  94  64  90 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       57  96  60  89  57  87 /   0  10  20  20  20  20
Sandpoint      52  96  54  84  53  81 /   0   0  30  20  10  10
Kellogg        58  94  64  85  55  81 /   0   0  30  30  20  10
Moses Lake     66  94  63  93  60  88 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      73  93  70  93  66  88 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Omak           68  95  65  92  59  89 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 021756
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1056 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Another hot and smokey day will be on tap today with triple digit
heat over much of central and southeast Washington. The ongoing
drought combined with high heat and low humidity will contribute
to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest. Temperatures
on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an increase in
clouds. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures and locally breezy
winds are expected Tuesday through Friday following the arrival
of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today: Low visibilities...below a mile...are still a
persistent issue for the Lake Chelan and adjacent towns, and is
not expected to change much the next 24 hours. We increased cloud
cover some...mainly for the E Slopes of the Cascades as the high-
based convective ceilings currently over Nrn Oregon moves north.
There may be brief isolated showers for the Cascades late
afternoon, but the better chance is this evening. Thunder is not
expected until Monday for the Cascades associated with a weak wave
passing northeast across the area. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Areas of smoke will not be a big concern, though vsbys
may tempo-down to near MVFR briefly. Otherwise the smoke will be
either. Mid and high level clouds will increase...with winds
remaining around 10kt this afternoon. Local higher gusts are
possible. Downslope gap winds will increase after 02z especially
in KEAT where speeds will reach around 15kt. bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  95  66  87  59 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  59  97  61  87  56 /   0   0   0  20  10  10
Pullman        98  56  93  58  86  53 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      104  68  99  68  93  63 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Colville      100  57  98  59  89  55 /   0   0  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      96  52  97  54  83  52 /   0   0   0  30  20  10
Kellogg        96  58  96  60  84  54 /   0   0   0  30  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  97  62  93  59 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee     101  73  97  68  92  65 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Omak          100  68  97  63  92  59 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 021756
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1056 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Another hot and smokey day will be on tap today with triple digit
heat over much of central and southeast Washington. The ongoing
drought combined with high heat and low humidity will contribute
to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest. Temperatures
on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an increase in
clouds. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures and locally breezy
winds are expected Tuesday through Friday following the arrival
of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today: Low visibilities...below a mile...are still a
persistent issue for the Lake Chelan and adjacent towns, and is
not expected to change much the next 24 hours. We increased cloud
cover some...mainly for the E Slopes of the Cascades as the high-
based convective ceilings currently over Nrn Oregon moves north.
There may be brief isolated showers for the Cascades late
afternoon, but the better chance is this evening. Thunder is not
expected until Monday for the Cascades associated with a weak wave
passing northeast across the area. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Areas of smoke will not be a big concern, though vsbys
may tempo-down to near MVFR briefly. Otherwise the smoke will be
either. Mid and high level clouds will increase...with winds
remaining around 10kt this afternoon. Local higher gusts are
possible. Downslope gap winds will increase after 02z especially
in KEAT where speeds will reach around 15kt. bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  95  66  87  59 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  59  97  61  87  56 /   0   0   0  20  10  10
Pullman        98  56  93  58  86  53 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      104  68  99  68  93  63 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Colville      100  57  98  59  89  55 /   0   0  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      96  52  97  54  83  52 /   0   0   0  30  20  10
Kellogg        96  58  96  60  84  54 /   0   0   0  30  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  97  62  93  59 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee     101  73  97  68  92  65 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Omak          100  68  97  63  92  59 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 021756
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1056 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Another hot and smokey day will be on tap today with triple digit
heat over much of central and southeast Washington. The ongoing
drought combined with high heat and low humidity will contribute
to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest. Temperatures
on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an increase in
clouds. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures and locally breezy
winds are expected Tuesday through Friday following the arrival
of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today: Low visibilities...below a mile...are still a
persistent issue for the Lake Chelan and adjacent towns, and is
not expected to change much the next 24 hours. We increased cloud
cover some...mainly for the E Slopes of the Cascades as the high-
based convective ceilings currently over Nrn Oregon moves north.
There may be brief isolated showers for the Cascades late
afternoon, but the better chance is this evening. Thunder is not
expected until Monday for the Cascades associated with a weak wave
passing northeast across the area. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Areas of smoke will not be a big concern, though vsbys
may tempo-down to near MVFR briefly. Otherwise the smoke will be
either. Mid and high level clouds will increase...with winds
remaining around 10kt this afternoon. Local higher gusts are
possible. Downslope gap winds will increase after 02z especially
in KEAT where speeds will reach around 15kt. bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  95  66  87  59 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  59  97  61  87  56 /   0   0   0  20  10  10
Pullman        98  56  93  58  86  53 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      104  68  99  68  93  63 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Colville      100  57  98  59  89  55 /   0   0  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      96  52  97  54  83  52 /   0   0   0  30  20  10
Kellogg        96  58  96  60  84  54 /   0   0   0  30  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  97  62  93  59 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee     101  73  97  68  92  65 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Omak          100  68  97  63  92  59 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 021756
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1056 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Another hot and smokey day will be on tap today with triple digit
heat over much of central and southeast Washington. The ongoing
drought combined with high heat and low humidity will contribute
to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest. Temperatures
on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an increase in
clouds. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures and locally breezy
winds are expected Tuesday through Friday following the arrival
of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today: Low visibilities...below a mile...are still a
persistent issue for the Lake Chelan and adjacent towns, and is
not expected to change much the next 24 hours. We increased cloud
cover some...mainly for the E Slopes of the Cascades as the high-
based convective ceilings currently over Nrn Oregon moves north.
There may be brief isolated showers for the Cascades late
afternoon, but the better chance is this evening. Thunder is not
expected until Monday for the Cascades associated with a weak wave
passing northeast across the area. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Areas of smoke will not be a big concern, though vsbys
may tempo-down to near MVFR briefly. Otherwise the smoke will be
either. Mid and high level clouds will increase...with winds
remaining around 10kt this afternoon. Local higher gusts are
possible. Downslope gap winds will increase after 02z especially
in KEAT where speeds will reach around 15kt. bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  95  66  87  59 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  59  97  61  87  56 /   0   0   0  20  10  10
Pullman        98  56  93  58  86  53 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      104  68  99  68  93  63 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Colville      100  57  98  59  89  55 /   0   0  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      96  52  97  54  83  52 /   0   0   0  30  20  10
Kellogg        96  58  96  60  84  54 /   0   0   0  30  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  97  62  93  59 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee     101  73  97  68  92  65 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Omak          100  68  97  63  92  59 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 021718 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1018 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION MARINE AND W/W/A SECTIONS

.SYNOPSIS...AS A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST TODAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
CONTINUE STEERING MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWARD OVER
WESTERN OREGON AND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TODAY INTO MONDAY... FOR
A THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND HAVE AN INCREASING IMPACT
OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD FOR COOLER TEMPS AND MORE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AS SUSPECTED SATURDAY...A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS AND DEBRIS HAVE ALREADY SPREAD OVER NORTHWEST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING...AND EVEN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LIGHTNING LATE SATURDAY WAS MAINLY NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS...THEN SHIFTED TO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
AND THIS MORNING.

THE AREA OF MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND OVER THE NORTH
COASTAL MOUNTAINS INTO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WITH SOME
SHOWERS. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LIGHTNING WITH THIS AREA IN A WHILE. THIS
AREA OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
WASHINGTON DURING THE MID DAY PERIOD AND SLOWLY OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE MODELS THIS MORNING SHOWED A WEAK UPPER JET SEGMENT WITH
THIS MOISTURE THAT MOVES NORTH OUT OF OUR AREA LATER TODAY.

ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE IS MOVING NORTH FROM SOUTHWEST OREGON INTO
LANE COUNTY THIS MORNING...AND DID PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING AN HOUR OR
TWO AGO AS IT WAS CROSSING INTO LANE COUNTY FROM DOUGLAS COUNTY. THIS
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH THROUGH NORTHWEST OREGON AND
EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER JET SEGMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE PIVOTING THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THIS TAKES SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACK TO THE COAST AND
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AGAIN. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA AS THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED NORTH. CANNOT REALLY RULE
OUT THUNDER ANYWHERE AS WELL. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE OF THUNDER IN
THE SOUTH PART OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING SPREADING NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE SHORT WAVE AND MOISTURE AREA WILL STILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY MONDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL BE SAGGING SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TURN THE
UPPER FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...AND LIMIT THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER MONDAY TO OUR SOUTHERN CASCADE AREAS AND
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CREST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTH WITH MORE ENERGY IN WASHINGTON BY TUESDAY...WITH MORE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON.
AGAIN...THE MAIN THREAT OF THUNDER FOR OUR AREA WILL BE NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS LATER TUESDAY.

THE MARINE LAYER IS AGAIN SHALLOW AND NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING.
WILL CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS TODAY...
THOUGH THE CLOUDS MAY AFFECT HOW WARM WE GET TODAY. HUMIDITIES WILL
BE SLOWLY RISING TODAY AS WELL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BEGIN PUSHING
INTO THE COASTAL GAPS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BUT INLAND
COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY. INLAND TEMPS WILL BE LOWER MONDAY DUE TO THE
GRADUAL COOLING OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT. EXPECT BETTER INLAND COVERAGE
OF LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ESPECIALLY NORTH. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THE GENERAL TREND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER
WEATHER. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRUSHING BY
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY...BUT KEEPS MOST OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES FOR LATE TUESDAY DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE USED A BROAD
BRUSH APPROACH FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON CASCADES. /64
&&

.AVIATION...BROAD AREA OF INSTABILITY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MOSTLY MID LEVEL SHOWERS AT THIS POINT
ALTHOUGH THERE IS THUNDERSTORM ACTION FROM ABOUT KRBG TO THE SOUTH
AT THIS HOUR. EXPECT THE GENERAL THREAT FOR THUNDER TO MOVE NORTH
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT
WAVE MOVING NORTH ACTS AS A LIFTING TRIGGER. IN GENERAL...AM
EXPECTING ISOLATED COVERAGE WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THOSE
SINGLE STORMS WILL SPECIFICALLY DEVELOP AND THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
TAF INCLUSION AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND AS
CONDITIONS EVOLVE. REGARDLESS...COULD GET SOME OUTFLOW GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF 35 KTS FROM THE STORMS
THAT DO FORM. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH LOW CLOUD FROM THESE SHOWERS OR
STORMS AND NOT ANY VSBY REDUCTIONS EITHER.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE STRATUS IMPACTS AT THE COAST TODAY AND A BIT
LONGER THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. STILL SEEMS LIKE IT WILL BURN
BACK OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL HAVE A HARD TIME FOLLOWING
VIA SATELLITE AS THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OBSCURING.
THUS WILL HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE ACTUAL EXTENT TODAY. HAVE NO
REASON TO DOUBT LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TONIGHT. /JBONK

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM. BEST TIMING
WILL BE FROM 23Z THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...MAIN CHANGE FOR TODAY IS THE INTRODUCTION OF SHOWERS AND
A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DONT FEEL LIKE THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF THUNDER COVERAGE BUT COULD SEE SOME OUTFLOW
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS.

OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR SUNDAY WITH
N WINDS OVER THE WATERS. SPEEDS HAVE DRAMATICALLY DROPPED OFF THIS
MORNING AS EXPECTED. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND GUSTS IN THE 20
TO 25 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER MODELS BUT AM HAVING
SOME DOUBTS AS THEY APPEAR TO BE MORE THERMALLY DRIVEN FROM
HEATING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. CURRENT CLOUD COVER OVER SW
OREGON AND NRN CALIFORNIA MAY INHIBIT THE STRENGTH OF THE HEATING.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR NOW AND KEEP THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ADVISORY FOR WINDS IN PLACE.

MEANWHILE...THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE GENERATING A STEEP
FRESH SWELL 5 TO 6 FEET AT 7 TO 9 SECONDS. AM SEEING OCCASIONAL
SQUARE SEAS OUT AT BUOY 89 WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LONG PERIOD SW
SWELL. IT APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED AND SPORADIC WITH FOCUS TOWARD
THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF OUR BORDERS SINCE THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY
INDICATION OF SQUARE SEAS SINCE LATE LAST EVENING. AS
SUCH...DROPPED THE ADVISORY FOR SEAS. STILL FAIRLY STEEP
NONETHELESS. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND
     METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER
     HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ
     COUNTY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 021718 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1018 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION MARINE AND W/W/A SECTIONS

.SYNOPSIS...AS A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST TODAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
CONTINUE STEERING MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWARD OVER
WESTERN OREGON AND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TODAY INTO MONDAY... FOR
A THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND HAVE AN INCREASING IMPACT
OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD FOR COOLER TEMPS AND MORE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AS SUSPECTED SATURDAY...A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS AND DEBRIS HAVE ALREADY SPREAD OVER NORTHWEST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING...AND EVEN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LIGHTNING LATE SATURDAY WAS MAINLY NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS...THEN SHIFTED TO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
AND THIS MORNING.

THE AREA OF MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND OVER THE NORTH
COASTAL MOUNTAINS INTO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WITH SOME
SHOWERS. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LIGHTNING WITH THIS AREA IN A WHILE. THIS
AREA OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
WASHINGTON DURING THE MID DAY PERIOD AND SLOWLY OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE MODELS THIS MORNING SHOWED A WEAK UPPER JET SEGMENT WITH
THIS MOISTURE THAT MOVES NORTH OUT OF OUR AREA LATER TODAY.

ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE IS MOVING NORTH FROM SOUTHWEST OREGON INTO
LANE COUNTY THIS MORNING...AND DID PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING AN HOUR OR
TWO AGO AS IT WAS CROSSING INTO LANE COUNTY FROM DOUGLAS COUNTY. THIS
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH THROUGH NORTHWEST OREGON AND
EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER JET SEGMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE PIVOTING THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THIS TAKES SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACK TO THE COAST AND
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AGAIN. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA AS THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED NORTH. CANNOT REALLY RULE
OUT THUNDER ANYWHERE AS WELL. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE OF THUNDER IN
THE SOUTH PART OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING SPREADING NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE SHORT WAVE AND MOISTURE AREA WILL STILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY MONDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL BE SAGGING SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TURN THE
UPPER FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...AND LIMIT THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER MONDAY TO OUR SOUTHERN CASCADE AREAS AND
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CREST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTH WITH MORE ENERGY IN WASHINGTON BY TUESDAY...WITH MORE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON.
AGAIN...THE MAIN THREAT OF THUNDER FOR OUR AREA WILL BE NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS LATER TUESDAY.

THE MARINE LAYER IS AGAIN SHALLOW AND NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING.
WILL CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS TODAY...
THOUGH THE CLOUDS MAY AFFECT HOW WARM WE GET TODAY. HUMIDITIES WILL
BE SLOWLY RISING TODAY AS WELL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BEGIN PUSHING
INTO THE COASTAL GAPS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BUT INLAND
COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY. INLAND TEMPS WILL BE LOWER MONDAY DUE TO THE
GRADUAL COOLING OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT. EXPECT BETTER INLAND COVERAGE
OF LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ESPECIALLY NORTH. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THE GENERAL TREND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER
WEATHER. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRUSHING BY
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY...BUT KEEPS MOST OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES FOR LATE TUESDAY DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE USED A BROAD
BRUSH APPROACH FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON CASCADES. /64
&&

.AVIATION...BROAD AREA OF INSTABILITY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MOSTLY MID LEVEL SHOWERS AT THIS POINT
ALTHOUGH THERE IS THUNDERSTORM ACTION FROM ABOUT KRBG TO THE SOUTH
AT THIS HOUR. EXPECT THE GENERAL THREAT FOR THUNDER TO MOVE NORTH
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT
WAVE MOVING NORTH ACTS AS A LIFTING TRIGGER. IN GENERAL...AM
EXPECTING ISOLATED COVERAGE WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THOSE
SINGLE STORMS WILL SPECIFICALLY DEVELOP AND THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
TAF INCLUSION AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND AS
CONDITIONS EVOLVE. REGARDLESS...COULD GET SOME OUTFLOW GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF 35 KTS FROM THE STORMS
THAT DO FORM. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH LOW CLOUD FROM THESE SHOWERS OR
STORMS AND NOT ANY VSBY REDUCTIONS EITHER.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE STRATUS IMPACTS AT THE COAST TODAY AND A BIT
LONGER THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. STILL SEEMS LIKE IT WILL BURN
BACK OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL HAVE A HARD TIME FOLLOWING
VIA SATELLITE AS THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OBSCURING.
THUS WILL HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE ACTUAL EXTENT TODAY. HAVE NO
REASON TO DOUBT LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TONIGHT. /JBONK

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM. BEST TIMING
WILL BE FROM 23Z THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...MAIN CHANGE FOR TODAY IS THE INTRODUCTION OF SHOWERS AND
A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DONT FEEL LIKE THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF THUNDER COVERAGE BUT COULD SEE SOME OUTFLOW
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS.

OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR SUNDAY WITH
N WINDS OVER THE WATERS. SPEEDS HAVE DRAMATICALLY DROPPED OFF THIS
MORNING AS EXPECTED. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND GUSTS IN THE 20
TO 25 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER MODELS BUT AM HAVING
SOME DOUBTS AS THEY APPEAR TO BE MORE THERMALLY DRIVEN FROM
HEATING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. CURRENT CLOUD COVER OVER SW
OREGON AND NRN CALIFORNIA MAY INHIBIT THE STRENGTH OF THE HEATING.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR NOW AND KEEP THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ADVISORY FOR WINDS IN PLACE.

MEANWHILE...THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE GENERATING A STEEP
FRESH SWELL 5 TO 6 FEET AT 7 TO 9 SECONDS. AM SEEING OCCASIONAL
SQUARE SEAS OUT AT BUOY 89 WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LONG PERIOD SW
SWELL. IT APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED AND SPORADIC WITH FOCUS TOWARD
THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF OUR BORDERS SINCE THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY
INDICATION OF SQUARE SEAS SINCE LATE LAST EVENING. AS
SUCH...DROPPED THE ADVISORY FOR SEAS. STILL FAIRLY STEEP
NONETHELESS. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND
     METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER
     HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ
     COUNTY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 021718 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1018 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION MARINE AND W/W/A SECTIONS

.SYNOPSIS...AS A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST TODAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
CONTINUE STEERING MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWARD OVER
WESTERN OREGON AND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TODAY INTO MONDAY... FOR
A THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND HAVE AN INCREASING IMPACT
OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD FOR COOLER TEMPS AND MORE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AS SUSPECTED SATURDAY...A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS AND DEBRIS HAVE ALREADY SPREAD OVER NORTHWEST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING...AND EVEN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LIGHTNING LATE SATURDAY WAS MAINLY NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS...THEN SHIFTED TO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
AND THIS MORNING.

THE AREA OF MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND OVER THE NORTH
COASTAL MOUNTAINS INTO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WITH SOME
SHOWERS. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LIGHTNING WITH THIS AREA IN A WHILE. THIS
AREA OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
WASHINGTON DURING THE MID DAY PERIOD AND SLOWLY OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE MODELS THIS MORNING SHOWED A WEAK UPPER JET SEGMENT WITH
THIS MOISTURE THAT MOVES NORTH OUT OF OUR AREA LATER TODAY.

ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE IS MOVING NORTH FROM SOUTHWEST OREGON INTO
LANE COUNTY THIS MORNING...AND DID PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING AN HOUR OR
TWO AGO AS IT WAS CROSSING INTO LANE COUNTY FROM DOUGLAS COUNTY. THIS
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH THROUGH NORTHWEST OREGON AND
EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER JET SEGMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE PIVOTING THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THIS TAKES SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACK TO THE COAST AND
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AGAIN. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA AS THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED NORTH. CANNOT REALLY RULE
OUT THUNDER ANYWHERE AS WELL. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE OF THUNDER IN
THE SOUTH PART OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING SPREADING NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE SHORT WAVE AND MOISTURE AREA WILL STILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY MONDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL BE SAGGING SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TURN THE
UPPER FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...AND LIMIT THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER MONDAY TO OUR SOUTHERN CASCADE AREAS AND
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CREST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTH WITH MORE ENERGY IN WASHINGTON BY TUESDAY...WITH MORE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON.
AGAIN...THE MAIN THREAT OF THUNDER FOR OUR AREA WILL BE NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS LATER TUESDAY.

THE MARINE LAYER IS AGAIN SHALLOW AND NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING.
WILL CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS TODAY...
THOUGH THE CLOUDS MAY AFFECT HOW WARM WE GET TODAY. HUMIDITIES WILL
BE SLOWLY RISING TODAY AS WELL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BEGIN PUSHING
INTO THE COASTAL GAPS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BUT INLAND
COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY. INLAND TEMPS WILL BE LOWER MONDAY DUE TO THE
GRADUAL COOLING OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT. EXPECT BETTER INLAND COVERAGE
OF LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ESPECIALLY NORTH. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THE GENERAL TREND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER
WEATHER. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRUSHING BY
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY...BUT KEEPS MOST OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES FOR LATE TUESDAY DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE USED A BROAD
BRUSH APPROACH FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON CASCADES. /64
&&

.AVIATION...BROAD AREA OF INSTABILITY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MOSTLY MID LEVEL SHOWERS AT THIS POINT
ALTHOUGH THERE IS THUNDERSTORM ACTION FROM ABOUT KRBG TO THE SOUTH
AT THIS HOUR. EXPECT THE GENERAL THREAT FOR THUNDER TO MOVE NORTH
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT
WAVE MOVING NORTH ACTS AS A LIFTING TRIGGER. IN GENERAL...AM
EXPECTING ISOLATED COVERAGE WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THOSE
SINGLE STORMS WILL SPECIFICALLY DEVELOP AND THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
TAF INCLUSION AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND AS
CONDITIONS EVOLVE. REGARDLESS...COULD GET SOME OUTFLOW GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF 35 KTS FROM THE STORMS
THAT DO FORM. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH LOW CLOUD FROM THESE SHOWERS OR
STORMS AND NOT ANY VSBY REDUCTIONS EITHER.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE STRATUS IMPACTS AT THE COAST TODAY AND A BIT
LONGER THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. STILL SEEMS LIKE IT WILL BURN
BACK OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL HAVE A HARD TIME FOLLOWING
VIA SATELLITE AS THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OBSCURING.
THUS WILL HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE ACTUAL EXTENT TODAY. HAVE NO
REASON TO DOUBT LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TONIGHT. /JBONK

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM. BEST TIMING
WILL BE FROM 23Z THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...MAIN CHANGE FOR TODAY IS THE INTRODUCTION OF SHOWERS AND
A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DONT FEEL LIKE THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF THUNDER COVERAGE BUT COULD SEE SOME OUTFLOW
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS.

OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR SUNDAY WITH
N WINDS OVER THE WATERS. SPEEDS HAVE DRAMATICALLY DROPPED OFF THIS
MORNING AS EXPECTED. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND GUSTS IN THE 20
TO 25 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER MODELS BUT AM HAVING
SOME DOUBTS AS THEY APPEAR TO BE MORE THERMALLY DRIVEN FROM
HEATING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. CURRENT CLOUD COVER OVER SW
OREGON AND NRN CALIFORNIA MAY INHIBIT THE STRENGTH OF THE HEATING.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR NOW AND KEEP THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ADVISORY FOR WINDS IN PLACE.

MEANWHILE...THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE GENERATING A STEEP
FRESH SWELL 5 TO 6 FEET AT 7 TO 9 SECONDS. AM SEEING OCCASIONAL
SQUARE SEAS OUT AT BUOY 89 WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LONG PERIOD SW
SWELL. IT APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED AND SPORADIC WITH FOCUS TOWARD
THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF OUR BORDERS SINCE THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY
INDICATION OF SQUARE SEAS SINCE LATE LAST EVENING. AS
SUCH...DROPPED THE ADVISORY FOR SEAS. STILL FAIRLY STEEP
NONETHELESS. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND
     METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER
     HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ
     COUNTY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 021718 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1018 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION MARINE AND W/W/A SECTIONS

.SYNOPSIS...AS A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST TODAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
CONTINUE STEERING MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWARD OVER
WESTERN OREGON AND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TODAY INTO MONDAY... FOR
A THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND HAVE AN INCREASING IMPACT
OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD FOR COOLER TEMPS AND MORE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AS SUSPECTED SATURDAY...A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS AND DEBRIS HAVE ALREADY SPREAD OVER NORTHWEST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING...AND EVEN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LIGHTNING LATE SATURDAY WAS MAINLY NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS...THEN SHIFTED TO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
AND THIS MORNING.

THE AREA OF MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND OVER THE NORTH
COASTAL MOUNTAINS INTO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WITH SOME
SHOWERS. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LIGHTNING WITH THIS AREA IN A WHILE. THIS
AREA OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
WASHINGTON DURING THE MID DAY PERIOD AND SLOWLY OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE MODELS THIS MORNING SHOWED A WEAK UPPER JET SEGMENT WITH
THIS MOISTURE THAT MOVES NORTH OUT OF OUR AREA LATER TODAY.

ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE IS MOVING NORTH FROM SOUTHWEST OREGON INTO
LANE COUNTY THIS MORNING...AND DID PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING AN HOUR OR
TWO AGO AS IT WAS CROSSING INTO LANE COUNTY FROM DOUGLAS COUNTY. THIS
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH THROUGH NORTHWEST OREGON AND
EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER JET SEGMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE PIVOTING THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THIS TAKES SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACK TO THE COAST AND
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AGAIN. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA AS THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED NORTH. CANNOT REALLY RULE
OUT THUNDER ANYWHERE AS WELL. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE OF THUNDER IN
THE SOUTH PART OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING SPREADING NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE SHORT WAVE AND MOISTURE AREA WILL STILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY MONDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL BE SAGGING SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TURN THE
UPPER FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...AND LIMIT THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER MONDAY TO OUR SOUTHERN CASCADE AREAS AND
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CREST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTH WITH MORE ENERGY IN WASHINGTON BY TUESDAY...WITH MORE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON.
AGAIN...THE MAIN THREAT OF THUNDER FOR OUR AREA WILL BE NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS LATER TUESDAY.

THE MARINE LAYER IS AGAIN SHALLOW AND NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING.
WILL CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS TODAY...
THOUGH THE CLOUDS MAY AFFECT HOW WARM WE GET TODAY. HUMIDITIES WILL
BE SLOWLY RISING TODAY AS WELL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BEGIN PUSHING
INTO THE COASTAL GAPS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BUT INLAND
COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY. INLAND TEMPS WILL BE LOWER MONDAY DUE TO THE
GRADUAL COOLING OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT. EXPECT BETTER INLAND COVERAGE
OF LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ESPECIALLY NORTH. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THE GENERAL TREND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER
WEATHER. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRUSHING BY
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY...BUT KEEPS MOST OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES FOR LATE TUESDAY DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE USED A BROAD
BRUSH APPROACH FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON CASCADES. /64
&&

.AVIATION...BROAD AREA OF INSTABILITY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MOSTLY MID LEVEL SHOWERS AT THIS POINT
ALTHOUGH THERE IS THUNDERSTORM ACTION FROM ABOUT KRBG TO THE SOUTH
AT THIS HOUR. EXPECT THE GENERAL THREAT FOR THUNDER TO MOVE NORTH
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT
WAVE MOVING NORTH ACTS AS A LIFTING TRIGGER. IN GENERAL...AM
EXPECTING ISOLATED COVERAGE WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THOSE
SINGLE STORMS WILL SPECIFICALLY DEVELOP AND THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
TAF INCLUSION AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND AS
CONDITIONS EVOLVE. REGARDLESS...COULD GET SOME OUTFLOW GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF 35 KTS FROM THE STORMS
THAT DO FORM. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH LOW CLOUD FROM THESE SHOWERS OR
STORMS AND NOT ANY VSBY REDUCTIONS EITHER.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE STRATUS IMPACTS AT THE COAST TODAY AND A BIT
LONGER THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. STILL SEEMS LIKE IT WILL BURN
BACK OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL HAVE A HARD TIME FOLLOWING
VIA SATELLITE AS THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OBSCURING.
THUS WILL HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE ACTUAL EXTENT TODAY. HAVE NO
REASON TO DOUBT LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TONIGHT. /JBONK

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM. BEST TIMING
WILL BE FROM 23Z THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...MAIN CHANGE FOR TODAY IS THE INTRODUCTION OF SHOWERS AND
A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DONT FEEL LIKE THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF THUNDER COVERAGE BUT COULD SEE SOME OUTFLOW
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS.

OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR SUNDAY WITH
N WINDS OVER THE WATERS. SPEEDS HAVE DRAMATICALLY DROPPED OFF THIS
MORNING AS EXPECTED. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND GUSTS IN THE 20
TO 25 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER MODELS BUT AM HAVING
SOME DOUBTS AS THEY APPEAR TO BE MORE THERMALLY DRIVEN FROM
HEATING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. CURRENT CLOUD COVER OVER SW
OREGON AND NRN CALIFORNIA MAY INHIBIT THE STRENGTH OF THE HEATING.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR NOW AND KEEP THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ADVISORY FOR WINDS IN PLACE.

MEANWHILE...THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE GENERATING A STEEP
FRESH SWELL 5 TO 6 FEET AT 7 TO 9 SECONDS. AM SEEING OCCASIONAL
SQUARE SEAS OUT AT BUOY 89 WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LONG PERIOD SW
SWELL. IT APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED AND SPORADIC WITH FOCUS TOWARD
THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF OUR BORDERS SINCE THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY
INDICATION OF SQUARE SEAS SINCE LATE LAST EVENING. AS
SUCH...DROPPED THE ADVISORY FOR SEAS. STILL FAIRLY STEEP
NONETHELESS. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND
     METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER
     HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ
     COUNTY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 021617
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
916 AM PDT SUN AUG  2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AS A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST TODAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
CONTINUE STEERING MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWARD OVER
WESTERN OREGON AND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TODAY INTO MONDAY... FOR
A THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND HAVE AN INCREASING IMPACT
OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD FOR COOLER TEMPS AND MORE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AS SUSPECTED SATURDAY...A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS AND DEBRIS HAVE ALREADY SPREAD OVER NORTHWEST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING...AND EVEN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LIGHTNING LATE SATURDAY WAS MAINLY NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS...THEN SHIFTED TO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
AND THIS MORNING.

THE AREA OF MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND OVER THE NORTH
COASTAL MOUNTAINS INTO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WITH SOME
SHOWERS. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LIGHTNING WITH THIS AREA IN A WHILE. THIS
AREA OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
WASHINGTON DURING THE MID DAY PERIOD AND SLOWLY OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE MODELS THIS MORNING SHOWED A WEAK UPPER JET SEGMENT WITH
THIS MOISTURE THAT MOVES NORTH OUT OF OUR AREA LATER TODAY.

ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE IS MOVING NORTH FROM SOUTHWEST OREGON INTO
LANE COUNTY THIS MORNING...AND DID PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING AN HOUR OR
TWO AGO AS IT WAS CROSSING INTO LANE COUNTY FROM DOUGLAS COUNTY. THIS
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH THROUGH NORTHWEST OREGON AND
EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER JET SEGMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE PIVOTING THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THIS TAKES SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACK TO THE COAST AND
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AGAIN. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA AS THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED NORTH. CANNOT REALLY RULE
OUT THUNDER ANYWHERE AS WELL. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE OF THUNDER IN
THE SOUTH PART OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING SPREADING NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE SHORT WAVE AND MOISTURE AREA WILL STILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY MONDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL BE SAGGING SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TURN THE
UPPER FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...AND LIMIT THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER MONDAY TO OUR SOUTHERN CASCADE AREAS AND
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CREST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTH WITH MORE ENERGY IN WASHINGTON BY TUESDAY...WITH MORE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON.
AGAIN...THE MAIN THREAT OF THUNDER FOR OUR AREA WILL BE NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS LATER TUESDAY.

THE MARINE LAYER IS AGAIN SHALLOW AND NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING.
WILL CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS TODAY...
THOUGH THE CLOUDS MAY AFFECT HOW WARM WE GET TODAY. HUMIDITIES WILL
BE SLOWLY RISING TODAY AS WELL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BEGIN PUSHING
INTO THE COASTAL GAPS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BUT INLAND
COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY. INLAND TEMPS WILL BE LOWER MONDAY DUE TO THE
GRADUAL COOLING OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT. EXPECT BETTER INLAND COVERAGE
OF LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ESPECIALLY NORTH. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THE GENERAL TREND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER
WEATHER. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRUSHING BY
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY...BUT KEEPS MOST OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES FOR LATE TUESDAY DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE USED A BROAD
BRUSH APPROACH FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON CASCADES. /64
&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VFR INLAND THIS MORNING BUT WITH
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OVER SW OREGON WILL DRIFT OVER
THE REGION. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN/THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA 10Z-17Z BUT CHANCE APPEARS SMALL ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE MENTION IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF. AT THE COAST...SHALLOW IFR
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND LIKELY DEVELOPS
ALONG THE NORTH COAST BY 11Z. THIS STRATUS WILL RETREAT OFFSHORE
AROUND 18Z FOR VFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT DEVELOPING
CUMULUS SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPANDING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE COAST RANGE 03Z-10Z
TUE...BUT AGAIN INSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN ANY PARTICULAR
TAF AT THIS TIME.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOME
RESIDUAL MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OVER SW OREGON WILL DRIFT
OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. LIKELY SEE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM. CHANCES BEST S AND E OF
TERMINAL AND IN CASCADES...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ONE IMPACTING THE
TERMINAL DURING 04Z-10Z.   CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE ARE
DRIFTING FROM S TO N INTO THE OUTER CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. POTENTIAL THREATS ARE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS...WITH THE THREAT AREA EXPANDING TO COVER MUCH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN IN THE EVENING HOURS.

OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR SUNDAY WITH N
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. AN OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS REVEALED WINDS STILL
AROUND 20 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS...SO WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY FOR
WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 10 AM AS AREAS OF MARGINALLY ADVISORY
STRENGTH WINDS MAY STILL EXIST. ANOTHER SCA FOR WINDS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTS TO 25 KT EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP.

MEANWHILE...THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE MAINTAINING STEEP SEAS
OVER THE WATERS OF 6 TO 7 FEET AT 6 TO 8 SECONDS. THEREFORE...WITH
CONDITIONS FLUCTUATING ABOVE OR VERY NEAR OUR CRITERIA FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS...THE ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS LOOKS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.
CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND
     METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER
     HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ
     COUNTY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
     WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 021617
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
916 AM PDT SUN AUG  2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AS A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST TODAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
CONTINUE STEERING MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWARD OVER
WESTERN OREGON AND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TODAY INTO MONDAY... FOR
A THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND HAVE AN INCREASING IMPACT
OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD FOR COOLER TEMPS AND MORE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AS SUSPECTED SATURDAY...A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS AND DEBRIS HAVE ALREADY SPREAD OVER NORTHWEST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING...AND EVEN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LIGHTNING LATE SATURDAY WAS MAINLY NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS...THEN SHIFTED TO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
AND THIS MORNING.

THE AREA OF MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND OVER THE NORTH
COASTAL MOUNTAINS INTO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WITH SOME
SHOWERS. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LIGHTNING WITH THIS AREA IN A WHILE. THIS
AREA OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
WASHINGTON DURING THE MID DAY PERIOD AND SLOWLY OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE MODELS THIS MORNING SHOWED A WEAK UPPER JET SEGMENT WITH
THIS MOISTURE THAT MOVES NORTH OUT OF OUR AREA LATER TODAY.

ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE IS MOVING NORTH FROM SOUTHWEST OREGON INTO
LANE COUNTY THIS MORNING...AND DID PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING AN HOUR OR
TWO AGO AS IT WAS CROSSING INTO LANE COUNTY FROM DOUGLAS COUNTY. THIS
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH THROUGH NORTHWEST OREGON AND
EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER JET SEGMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE PIVOTING THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THIS TAKES SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACK TO THE COAST AND
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AGAIN. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA AS THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED NORTH. CANNOT REALLY RULE
OUT THUNDER ANYWHERE AS WELL. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE OF THUNDER IN
THE SOUTH PART OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING SPREADING NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE SHORT WAVE AND MOISTURE AREA WILL STILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY MONDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL BE SAGGING SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TURN THE
UPPER FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...AND LIMIT THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER MONDAY TO OUR SOUTHERN CASCADE AREAS AND
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CREST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTH WITH MORE ENERGY IN WASHINGTON BY TUESDAY...WITH MORE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON.
AGAIN...THE MAIN THREAT OF THUNDER FOR OUR AREA WILL BE NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS LATER TUESDAY.

THE MARINE LAYER IS AGAIN SHALLOW AND NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING.
WILL CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS TODAY...
THOUGH THE CLOUDS MAY AFFECT HOW WARM WE GET TODAY. HUMIDITIES WILL
BE SLOWLY RISING TODAY AS WELL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BEGIN PUSHING
INTO THE COASTAL GAPS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BUT INLAND
COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY. INLAND TEMPS WILL BE LOWER MONDAY DUE TO THE
GRADUAL COOLING OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT. EXPECT BETTER INLAND COVERAGE
OF LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ESPECIALLY NORTH. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THE GENERAL TREND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER
WEATHER. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRUSHING BY
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY...BUT KEEPS MOST OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES FOR LATE TUESDAY DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE USED A BROAD
BRUSH APPROACH FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON CASCADES. /64
&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VFR INLAND THIS MORNING BUT WITH
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OVER SW OREGON WILL DRIFT OVER
THE REGION. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN/THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA 10Z-17Z BUT CHANCE APPEARS SMALL ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE MENTION IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF. AT THE COAST...SHALLOW IFR
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND LIKELY DEVELOPS
ALONG THE NORTH COAST BY 11Z. THIS STRATUS WILL RETREAT OFFSHORE
AROUND 18Z FOR VFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT DEVELOPING
CUMULUS SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPANDING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE COAST RANGE 03Z-10Z
TUE...BUT AGAIN INSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN ANY PARTICULAR
TAF AT THIS TIME.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOME
RESIDUAL MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OVER SW OREGON WILL DRIFT
OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. LIKELY SEE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM. CHANCES BEST S AND E OF
TERMINAL AND IN CASCADES...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ONE IMPACTING THE
TERMINAL DURING 04Z-10Z.   CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE ARE
DRIFTING FROM S TO N INTO THE OUTER CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. POTENTIAL THREATS ARE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS...WITH THE THREAT AREA EXPANDING TO COVER MUCH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN IN THE EVENING HOURS.

OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR SUNDAY WITH N
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. AN OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS REVEALED WINDS STILL
AROUND 20 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS...SO WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY FOR
WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 10 AM AS AREAS OF MARGINALLY ADVISORY
STRENGTH WINDS MAY STILL EXIST. ANOTHER SCA FOR WINDS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTS TO 25 KT EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP.

MEANWHILE...THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE MAINTAINING STEEP SEAS
OVER THE WATERS OF 6 TO 7 FEET AT 6 TO 8 SECONDS. THEREFORE...WITH
CONDITIONS FLUCTUATING ABOVE OR VERY NEAR OUR CRITERIA FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS...THE ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS LOOKS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.
CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND
     METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER
     HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ
     COUNTY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
     WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 021607
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
915 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST TODAY...THEN WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID
WEEK. WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND ALSO TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OFF THE OREGON
COAST OVERNIGHT COVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN WASHINGTON. THESE CLOUDS WILL
DRIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND BY AFTERNOON SUNNY SKIES WILL RETURN OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE GRIDS AND FORECASTS FOR
MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT
IN DEFERENCE TO THE CLOUD COVER. STILL LOOKING FOR 80S AND LOW 90S
OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY.

REST OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. EXPECTING SOME INTRUSION OF
MARINE STRATUS MONDAY MORNING BUT THIS WILL RAPIDLY RETREAT TO THE
COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL BE AFFECTING
THE AREA WITH CONSIDERABLY LOWER HEIGHTS SO HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 80S INLAND AND NEAR 70 ON THE COAST UNDER MORE
PERSISTENT STRATUS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE CASCADES ON MONDAY.

A STRONGER MARINE PUSH MONDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE IN THE CARDS. THIS
WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO PUGET SOUND TUESDAY MORNING. THOUGH THEY WILL
PROBABLY EVAPORATE BACK TO THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON...HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE LOWER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR A WEEK...IN THE 70S
AND LOW 80S. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PAC NW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD MUCH LESS MOISTURE SO THERE IS LITTLE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. LEFT THE SHOWERS IN OVER THE MOUNTAINS
BUT IF ANY RAIN DOES FALL IT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL AGAIN
TOP OUT MOSTLY IN THE 70S.

MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO VARY MORE STARTING THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
TREND IS TOWARD WEAK RIDGING. THIS MAY BE TRANSITORY BUT THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. THIS MAY CARRY OVER INTO FRIDAY BUT ANOTHER
TROUGH MAY APPROACH THE REGION AND THE AFFECTS COULD BEGIN TO BE
FELT FRIDAY OR OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY START TO MODERATE BY SATURDAY...
FALLING BACK TO THE 70S OR LOW 80S...WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THIS NEXT WEEKEND IS
LOW.  MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE STABLE
AND DRY...EXCEPT FOR SHALLOW MARINE MOISTURE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

THERE IS PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE LOWER
CHEHALIS VALLEY AND SOUTH INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. IT SHOULD
BURN OFF THIS MORNING...AND STRATUS AND FOG COULD RETURN TO THOSE
AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS
BELOW 12000 FT.

KSEA...NORTH WIND 4-10 KT BECOMING NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
BECOMING VARIABLE 6 KT OR LESS TONIGHT.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES WILL RESULT IN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THEN
AGAIN AT TIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK. BRIEF WESTERLY GALES OCCURRED IN THE
CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT SATURDAY
EVENING...AND CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR AGAIN THIS EVENING. FOR NOW I
WILL STAY WITH OUR FORECAST OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KT THERE TONIGHT...BUT I MAY DECIDE TO UPGRADE THAT TO A
GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WESTERLIES ARE A GOOD BET
THERE MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS WELL.   MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR PARTS
     OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT ZONE 150...CENTRAL
STRAIT      OF JUAN DE FUCA...EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.      GALE WATCH
CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 021607
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
915 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST TODAY...THEN WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID
WEEK. WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND ALSO TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OFF THE OREGON
COAST OVERNIGHT COVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN WASHINGTON. THESE CLOUDS WILL
DRIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND BY AFTERNOON SUNNY SKIES WILL RETURN OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE GRIDS AND FORECASTS FOR
MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT
IN DEFERENCE TO THE CLOUD COVER. STILL LOOKING FOR 80S AND LOW 90S
OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY.

REST OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. EXPECTING SOME INTRUSION OF
MARINE STRATUS MONDAY MORNING BUT THIS WILL RAPIDLY RETREAT TO THE
COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL BE AFFECTING
THE AREA WITH CONSIDERABLY LOWER HEIGHTS SO HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 80S INLAND AND NEAR 70 ON THE COAST UNDER MORE
PERSISTENT STRATUS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE CASCADES ON MONDAY.

A STRONGER MARINE PUSH MONDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE IN THE CARDS. THIS
WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO PUGET SOUND TUESDAY MORNING. THOUGH THEY WILL
PROBABLY EVAPORATE BACK TO THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON...HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE LOWER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR A WEEK...IN THE 70S
AND LOW 80S. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PAC NW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD MUCH LESS MOISTURE SO THERE IS LITTLE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. LEFT THE SHOWERS IN OVER THE MOUNTAINS
BUT IF ANY RAIN DOES FALL IT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL AGAIN
TOP OUT MOSTLY IN THE 70S.

MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO VARY MORE STARTING THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
TREND IS TOWARD WEAK RIDGING. THIS MAY BE TRANSITORY BUT THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. THIS MAY CARRY OVER INTO FRIDAY BUT ANOTHER
TROUGH MAY APPROACH THE REGION AND THE AFFECTS COULD BEGIN TO BE
FELT FRIDAY OR OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY START TO MODERATE BY SATURDAY...
FALLING BACK TO THE 70S OR LOW 80S...WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THIS NEXT WEEKEND IS
LOW.  MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE STABLE
AND DRY...EXCEPT FOR SHALLOW MARINE MOISTURE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

THERE IS PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE LOWER
CHEHALIS VALLEY AND SOUTH INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. IT SHOULD
BURN OFF THIS MORNING...AND STRATUS AND FOG COULD RETURN TO THOSE
AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS
BELOW 12000 FT.

KSEA...NORTH WIND 4-10 KT BECOMING NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
BECOMING VARIABLE 6 KT OR LESS TONIGHT.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES WILL RESULT IN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THEN
AGAIN AT TIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK. BRIEF WESTERLY GALES OCCURRED IN THE
CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT SATURDAY
EVENING...AND CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR AGAIN THIS EVENING. FOR NOW I
WILL STAY WITH OUR FORECAST OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KT THERE TONIGHT...BUT I MAY DECIDE TO UPGRADE THAT TO A
GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WESTERLIES ARE A GOOD BET
THERE MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS WELL.   MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR PARTS
     OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT ZONE 150...CENTRAL
STRAIT      OF JUAN DE FUCA...EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.      GALE WATCH
CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 021607
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
915 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST TODAY...THEN WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID
WEEK. WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND ALSO TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OFF THE OREGON
COAST OVERNIGHT COVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN WASHINGTON. THESE CLOUDS WILL
DRIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND BY AFTERNOON SUNNY SKIES WILL RETURN OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE GRIDS AND FORECASTS FOR
MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT
IN DEFERENCE TO THE CLOUD COVER. STILL LOOKING FOR 80S AND LOW 90S
OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY.

REST OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. EXPECTING SOME INTRUSION OF
MARINE STRATUS MONDAY MORNING BUT THIS WILL RAPIDLY RETREAT TO THE
COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL BE AFFECTING
THE AREA WITH CONSIDERABLY LOWER HEIGHTS SO HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 80S INLAND AND NEAR 70 ON THE COAST UNDER MORE
PERSISTENT STRATUS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE CASCADES ON MONDAY.

A STRONGER MARINE PUSH MONDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE IN THE CARDS. THIS
WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO PUGET SOUND TUESDAY MORNING. THOUGH THEY WILL
PROBABLY EVAPORATE BACK TO THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON...HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE LOWER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR A WEEK...IN THE 70S
AND LOW 80S. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PAC NW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD MUCH LESS MOISTURE SO THERE IS LITTLE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. LEFT THE SHOWERS IN OVER THE MOUNTAINS
BUT IF ANY RAIN DOES FALL IT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL AGAIN
TOP OUT MOSTLY IN THE 70S.

MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO VARY MORE STARTING THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
TREND IS TOWARD WEAK RIDGING. THIS MAY BE TRANSITORY BUT THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. THIS MAY CARRY OVER INTO FRIDAY BUT ANOTHER
TROUGH MAY APPROACH THE REGION AND THE AFFECTS COULD BEGIN TO BE
FELT FRIDAY OR OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY START TO MODERATE BY SATURDAY...
FALLING BACK TO THE 70S OR LOW 80S...WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THIS NEXT WEEKEND IS
LOW.  MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE STABLE
AND DRY...EXCEPT FOR SHALLOW MARINE MOISTURE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

THERE IS PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE LOWER
CHEHALIS VALLEY AND SOUTH INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. IT SHOULD
BURN OFF THIS MORNING...AND STRATUS AND FOG COULD RETURN TO THOSE
AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS
BELOW 12000 FT.

KSEA...NORTH WIND 4-10 KT BECOMING NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
BECOMING VARIABLE 6 KT OR LESS TONIGHT.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES WILL RESULT IN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THEN
AGAIN AT TIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK. BRIEF WESTERLY GALES OCCURRED IN THE
CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT SATURDAY
EVENING...AND CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR AGAIN THIS EVENING. FOR NOW I
WILL STAY WITH OUR FORECAST OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KT THERE TONIGHT...BUT I MAY DECIDE TO UPGRADE THAT TO A
GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WESTERLIES ARE A GOOD BET
THERE MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS WELL.   MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR PARTS
     OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT ZONE 150...CENTRAL
STRAIT      OF JUAN DE FUCA...EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.      GALE WATCH
CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 021607
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
915 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST TODAY...THEN WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID
WEEK. WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND ALSO TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OFF THE OREGON
COAST OVERNIGHT COVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN WASHINGTON. THESE CLOUDS WILL
DRIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND BY AFTERNOON SUNNY SKIES WILL RETURN OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE GRIDS AND FORECASTS FOR
MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT
IN DEFERENCE TO THE CLOUD COVER. STILL LOOKING FOR 80S AND LOW 90S
OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY.

REST OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. EXPECTING SOME INTRUSION OF
MARINE STRATUS MONDAY MORNING BUT THIS WILL RAPIDLY RETREAT TO THE
COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL BE AFFECTING
THE AREA WITH CONSIDERABLY LOWER HEIGHTS SO HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 80S INLAND AND NEAR 70 ON THE COAST UNDER MORE
PERSISTENT STRATUS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE CASCADES ON MONDAY.

A STRONGER MARINE PUSH MONDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE IN THE CARDS. THIS
WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO PUGET SOUND TUESDAY MORNING. THOUGH THEY WILL
PROBABLY EVAPORATE BACK TO THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON...HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE LOWER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR A WEEK...IN THE 70S
AND LOW 80S. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PAC NW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD MUCH LESS MOISTURE SO THERE IS LITTLE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. LEFT THE SHOWERS IN OVER THE MOUNTAINS
BUT IF ANY RAIN DOES FALL IT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL AGAIN
TOP OUT MOSTLY IN THE 70S.

MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO VARY MORE STARTING THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
TREND IS TOWARD WEAK RIDGING. THIS MAY BE TRANSITORY BUT THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. THIS MAY CARRY OVER INTO FRIDAY BUT ANOTHER
TROUGH MAY APPROACH THE REGION AND THE AFFECTS COULD BEGIN TO BE
FELT FRIDAY OR OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY START TO MODERATE BY SATURDAY...
FALLING BACK TO THE 70S OR LOW 80S...WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THIS NEXT WEEKEND IS
LOW.  MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE STABLE
AND DRY...EXCEPT FOR SHALLOW MARINE MOISTURE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

THERE IS PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE LOWER
CHEHALIS VALLEY AND SOUTH INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. IT SHOULD
BURN OFF THIS MORNING...AND STRATUS AND FOG COULD RETURN TO THOSE
AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS
BELOW 12000 FT.

KSEA...NORTH WIND 4-10 KT BECOMING NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
BECOMING VARIABLE 6 KT OR LESS TONIGHT.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES WILL RESULT IN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THEN
AGAIN AT TIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK. BRIEF WESTERLY GALES OCCURRED IN THE
CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT SATURDAY
EVENING...AND CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR AGAIN THIS EVENING. FOR NOW I
WILL STAY WITH OUR FORECAST OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KT THERE TONIGHT...BUT I MAY DECIDE TO UPGRADE THAT TO A
GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WESTERLIES ARE A GOOD BET
THERE MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS WELL.   MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR PARTS
     OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT ZONE 150...CENTRAL
STRAIT      OF JUAN DE FUCA...EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.      GALE WATCH
CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KOTX 021347
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
646 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Another hot and smokey day will be on tap today with triple digit
heat over much of central and southeast Washington. The ongoing
drought combined with high heat and low humidity will contribute
to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest. Temperatures
on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an increase in
clouds. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures and locally breezy
winds are expected Tuesday through Friday following the arrival
of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A quick update this morning to increase the amount of smoke across
northeast Washington and north Idaho this morning as seen on the
visible satellite images.

Today through Monday night: Expect one more hot and dry day
today, then expect conditions to gradually moisten up and cool
slightly. The ridge of high pressure will stay firm over the
Inland Northwest today as the surface trough spans from the
Columbia Basin to north Idaho. This ridge is expected to shift
east tonight into Monday as an upper trough of low pressure swings
down across B.C. This will enhance a moist southwest flow and
advect moisture and clouds into the region.

Temperatures: Only a degree or two change in temperatures is
expected today as low levels remain warm. It will be another hot
and unstable day. This could make current wildfire more active
once again. Could see a few near record highs, today in Moses
Lake, Plain, Stehekin and Omak. The heat advisory will continue
for another day in the LC valley as daytime temperatures top out
from 93 to 103. Monday`s temperatures will cool a few more degrees
with mainly 90s expected.

Winds/humidity: Downslope Cascade gap winds will be another
concern today especially with the extremely dry humidity levels,
from the upper single digits to mid teens. Wind speeds will
lighten up this morning and could see some terrain driven
upslope/up valley winds in sheltered valleys. Surface pressure
gradients are expected to tighten to about 4-5 mb this afternoon
and should see a repeat of gusty gap winds into the evening across
the Cascade valleys, but speeds don`t look to be as strong as
those on Saturday. Some local afternoon gusts of 15 mph are also
possible across the Columbia Basin as the dry and unstable
atmosphere mixes. Northwest to westerly winds will prevail for
much of the day on Monday although humidity values will gradually
increase.

Clouds/weather: Areas of smoke will be a concern this morning and
into the afternoon as the wildfires remain active. The Wolverine
fire near Lake Chelan will be the main culprit although other
smaller fires especially near the Canadian border will add to the
smokey haze. High clouds will be on the increase today as cirrus
rotates in from the southwest. This moisture is associated with a
monsoonal fetch coming up from California. This moisture will
increase tonight especially across the Cascades and could squeeze
a few sprinkles. A weak disturbance in the moist southwest flow
will ripple up the Cascades Monday morning with a small chance of
elevated convection and more sprinkles. As the upper trough drops
across B.C., this will push the disturbance and moisture band
across the Inland Northwest Monday afternoon and evening.
Instability will remain and this could generate more high based
thunderstorms across northeast Washington and north Idaho. There
looks to be a better chance of measurable precipitation across
north Idaho late Monday night, albeit it will still be light.
/rfox.

Tuesday and Wednesday: A 500mb low will reside over British
Columbia Tuesday and Wednesday. The evening runs of the GFS and
ECMWF are in decent agreement that the majority of eastern
Washington and north Idaho will be under the influence of dry
westerly flow Tuesday and Wednesday. However, there may be enough
cool cyclonic flow aloft along the Canadian border to allow the
formation of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
and Wednesday. A 20-30 percent chance for showers and
thunderstorms has also been retained for the Idaho Panhandle
mountains along the Montana border Tuesday, but the evening models
have trended quicker pushing moisture out of the Panhandle. If
this trend continues, Tuesday will be a dry day for most of the
Panhandle. Tuesday and Wednesday look breezy with sustained 10 to
15 mph common across the Basin, Palouse and Spokane area. Gusts to
20 mph will be likely in the afternoon with localized gusts in the
25 to 30 mph range through the Cascasde gaps during the early
evening hours. Even though temperatures will be trending down
Tuesday and Wednesday, wind and low relative humidity levels could
be a concern given the exceedingly dry conditions following the
heat of the weekend.

Thursday through Saturday: It is hard to get too excited about
chances for showers Thursday through Saturday. (Though....some of
us will be excited about the cooler, more seasonal temperatures.)
With the departure of the 500mb low out of British Columbia
Thursday night, the Pacific Northwest will be under a flat
westerly flow Thursday and Friday. The persistent on-shore flow
should bring a gradual increase in our surface dewpoints Thursday
through Saturday, but probably not enough to produce much
instability. There is a hint of a weak shorwave trough on
Saturday, so a 20 percent chance of mountain showers and
thunderstorms enters ther forecast Saturday afternoon. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Areas of smoke will be a concern for some of the TAF
sites in the next 24 hours, especially for KMWH where the
norther winds advect lcl MVFR conditions over the site. Expect
some improvement this afternoon with daytime mixing and westerly
winds. Otherwise smoke will be either high level or cause local
MVFR vsbys. Mid and high level clouds will increase through the
period. Winds should remain under 10kt this afternoon but local
higher gusts are possible. Downslope gap winds will increase after
02z especially in KEAT where speeds will reach around 14kt. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  95  66  87  59 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  59  97  61  87  56 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Pullman        98  56  93  58  86  53 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      104  68  99  68  93  63 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville      100  57  98  59  89  55 /   0   0  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      96  52  97  54  83  52 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Kellogg        96  58  96  60  84  54 /   0   0   0  30  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  97  62  93  59 /  10   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee     101  73  97  68  92  65 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Omak          100  68  97  63  92  59 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 021347
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
646 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Another hot and smokey day will be on tap today with triple digit
heat over much of central and southeast Washington. The ongoing
drought combined with high heat and low humidity will contribute
to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest. Temperatures
on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an increase in
clouds. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures and locally breezy
winds are expected Tuesday through Friday following the arrival
of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A quick update this morning to increase the amount of smoke across
northeast Washington and north Idaho this morning as seen on the
visible satellite images.

Today through Monday night: Expect one more hot and dry day
today, then expect conditions to gradually moisten up and cool
slightly. The ridge of high pressure will stay firm over the
Inland Northwest today as the surface trough spans from the
Columbia Basin to north Idaho. This ridge is expected to shift
east tonight into Monday as an upper trough of low pressure swings
down across B.C. This will enhance a moist southwest flow and
advect moisture and clouds into the region.

Temperatures: Only a degree or two change in temperatures is
expected today as low levels remain warm. It will be another hot
and unstable day. This could make current wildfire more active
once again. Could see a few near record highs, today in Moses
Lake, Plain, Stehekin and Omak. The heat advisory will continue
for another day in the LC valley as daytime temperatures top out
from 93 to 103. Monday`s temperatures will cool a few more degrees
with mainly 90s expected.

Winds/humidity: Downslope Cascade gap winds will be another
concern today especially with the extremely dry humidity levels,
from the upper single digits to mid teens. Wind speeds will
lighten up this morning and could see some terrain driven
upslope/up valley winds in sheltered valleys. Surface pressure
gradients are expected to tighten to about 4-5 mb this afternoon
and should see a repeat of gusty gap winds into the evening across
the Cascade valleys, but speeds don`t look to be as strong as
those on Saturday. Some local afternoon gusts of 15 mph are also
possible across the Columbia Basin as the dry and unstable
atmosphere mixes. Northwest to westerly winds will prevail for
much of the day on Monday although humidity values will gradually
increase.

Clouds/weather: Areas of smoke will be a concern this morning and
into the afternoon as the wildfires remain active. The Wolverine
fire near Lake Chelan will be the main culprit although other
smaller fires especially near the Canadian border will add to the
smokey haze. High clouds will be on the increase today as cirrus
rotates in from the southwest. This moisture is associated with a
monsoonal fetch coming up from California. This moisture will
increase tonight especially across the Cascades and could squeeze
a few sprinkles. A weak disturbance in the moist southwest flow
will ripple up the Cascades Monday morning with a small chance of
elevated convection and more sprinkles. As the upper trough drops
across B.C., this will push the disturbance and moisture band
across the Inland Northwest Monday afternoon and evening.
Instability will remain and this could generate more high based
thunderstorms across northeast Washington and north Idaho. There
looks to be a better chance of measurable precipitation across
north Idaho late Monday night, albeit it will still be light.
/rfox.

Tuesday and Wednesday: A 500mb low will reside over British
Columbia Tuesday and Wednesday. The evening runs of the GFS and
ECMWF are in decent agreement that the majority of eastern
Washington and north Idaho will be under the influence of dry
westerly flow Tuesday and Wednesday. However, there may be enough
cool cyclonic flow aloft along the Canadian border to allow the
formation of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
and Wednesday. A 20-30 percent chance for showers and
thunderstorms has also been retained for the Idaho Panhandle
mountains along the Montana border Tuesday, but the evening models
have trended quicker pushing moisture out of the Panhandle. If
this trend continues, Tuesday will be a dry day for most of the
Panhandle. Tuesday and Wednesday look breezy with sustained 10 to
15 mph common across the Basin, Palouse and Spokane area. Gusts to
20 mph will be likely in the afternoon with localized gusts in the
25 to 30 mph range through the Cascasde gaps during the early
evening hours. Even though temperatures will be trending down
Tuesday and Wednesday, wind and low relative humidity levels could
be a concern given the exceedingly dry conditions following the
heat of the weekend.

Thursday through Saturday: It is hard to get too excited about
chances for showers Thursday through Saturday. (Though....some of
us will be excited about the cooler, more seasonal temperatures.)
With the departure of the 500mb low out of British Columbia
Thursday night, the Pacific Northwest will be under a flat
westerly flow Thursday and Friday. The persistent on-shore flow
should bring a gradual increase in our surface dewpoints Thursday
through Saturday, but probably not enough to produce much
instability. There is a hint of a weak shorwave trough on
Saturday, so a 20 percent chance of mountain showers and
thunderstorms enters ther forecast Saturday afternoon. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Areas of smoke will be a concern for some of the TAF
sites in the next 24 hours, especially for KMWH where the
norther winds advect lcl MVFR conditions over the site. Expect
some improvement this afternoon with daytime mixing and westerly
winds. Otherwise smoke will be either high level or cause local
MVFR vsbys. Mid and high level clouds will increase through the
period. Winds should remain under 10kt this afternoon but local
higher gusts are possible. Downslope gap winds will increase after
02z especially in KEAT where speeds will reach around 14kt. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  95  66  87  59 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  59  97  61  87  56 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Pullman        98  56  93  58  86  53 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      104  68  99  68  93  63 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville      100  57  98  59  89  55 /   0   0  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      96  52  97  54  83  52 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Kellogg        96  58  96  60  84  54 /   0   0   0  30  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  97  62  93  59 /  10   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee     101  73  97  68  92  65 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Omak          100  68  97  63  92  59 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 021347
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
646 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Another hot and smokey day will be on tap today with triple digit
heat over much of central and southeast Washington. The ongoing
drought combined with high heat and low humidity will contribute
to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest. Temperatures
on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an increase in
clouds. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures and locally breezy
winds are expected Tuesday through Friday following the arrival
of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A quick update this morning to increase the amount of smoke across
northeast Washington and north Idaho this morning as seen on the
visible satellite images.

Today through Monday night: Expect one more hot and dry day
today, then expect conditions to gradually moisten up and cool
slightly. The ridge of high pressure will stay firm over the
Inland Northwest today as the surface trough spans from the
Columbia Basin to north Idaho. This ridge is expected to shift
east tonight into Monday as an upper trough of low pressure swings
down across B.C. This will enhance a moist southwest flow and
advect moisture and clouds into the region.

Temperatures: Only a degree or two change in temperatures is
expected today as low levels remain warm. It will be another hot
and unstable day. This could make current wildfire more active
once again. Could see a few near record highs, today in Moses
Lake, Plain, Stehekin and Omak. The heat advisory will continue
for another day in the LC valley as daytime temperatures top out
from 93 to 103. Monday`s temperatures will cool a few more degrees
with mainly 90s expected.

Winds/humidity: Downslope Cascade gap winds will be another
concern today especially with the extremely dry humidity levels,
from the upper single digits to mid teens. Wind speeds will
lighten up this morning and could see some terrain driven
upslope/up valley winds in sheltered valleys. Surface pressure
gradients are expected to tighten to about 4-5 mb this afternoon
and should see a repeat of gusty gap winds into the evening across
the Cascade valleys, but speeds don`t look to be as strong as
those on Saturday. Some local afternoon gusts of 15 mph are also
possible across the Columbia Basin as the dry and unstable
atmosphere mixes. Northwest to westerly winds will prevail for
much of the day on Monday although humidity values will gradually
increase.

Clouds/weather: Areas of smoke will be a concern this morning and
into the afternoon as the wildfires remain active. The Wolverine
fire near Lake Chelan will be the main culprit although other
smaller fires especially near the Canadian border will add to the
smokey haze. High clouds will be on the increase today as cirrus
rotates in from the southwest. This moisture is associated with a
monsoonal fetch coming up from California. This moisture will
increase tonight especially across the Cascades and could squeeze
a few sprinkles. A weak disturbance in the moist southwest flow
will ripple up the Cascades Monday morning with a small chance of
elevated convection and more sprinkles. As the upper trough drops
across B.C., this will push the disturbance and moisture band
across the Inland Northwest Monday afternoon and evening.
Instability will remain and this could generate more high based
thunderstorms across northeast Washington and north Idaho. There
looks to be a better chance of measurable precipitation across
north Idaho late Monday night, albeit it will still be light.
/rfox.

Tuesday and Wednesday: A 500mb low will reside over British
Columbia Tuesday and Wednesday. The evening runs of the GFS and
ECMWF are in decent agreement that the majority of eastern
Washington and north Idaho will be under the influence of dry
westerly flow Tuesday and Wednesday. However, there may be enough
cool cyclonic flow aloft along the Canadian border to allow the
formation of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
and Wednesday. A 20-30 percent chance for showers and
thunderstorms has also been retained for the Idaho Panhandle
mountains along the Montana border Tuesday, but the evening models
have trended quicker pushing moisture out of the Panhandle. If
this trend continues, Tuesday will be a dry day for most of the
Panhandle. Tuesday and Wednesday look breezy with sustained 10 to
15 mph common across the Basin, Palouse and Spokane area. Gusts to
20 mph will be likely in the afternoon with localized gusts in the
25 to 30 mph range through the Cascasde gaps during the early
evening hours. Even though temperatures will be trending down
Tuesday and Wednesday, wind and low relative humidity levels could
be a concern given the exceedingly dry conditions following the
heat of the weekend.

Thursday through Saturday: It is hard to get too excited about
chances for showers Thursday through Saturday. (Though....some of
us will be excited about the cooler, more seasonal temperatures.)
With the departure of the 500mb low out of British Columbia
Thursday night, the Pacific Northwest will be under a flat
westerly flow Thursday and Friday. The persistent on-shore flow
should bring a gradual increase in our surface dewpoints Thursday
through Saturday, but probably not enough to produce much
instability. There is a hint of a weak shorwave trough on
Saturday, so a 20 percent chance of mountain showers and
thunderstorms enters ther forecast Saturday afternoon. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Areas of smoke will be a concern for some of the TAF
sites in the next 24 hours, especially for KMWH where the
norther winds advect lcl MVFR conditions over the site. Expect
some improvement this afternoon with daytime mixing and westerly
winds. Otherwise smoke will be either high level or cause local
MVFR vsbys. Mid and high level clouds will increase through the
period. Winds should remain under 10kt this afternoon but local
higher gusts are possible. Downslope gap winds will increase after
02z especially in KEAT where speeds will reach around 14kt. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  95  66  87  59 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  59  97  61  87  56 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Pullman        98  56  93  58  86  53 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      104  68  99  68  93  63 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville      100  57  98  59  89  55 /   0   0  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      96  52  97  54  83  52 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Kellogg        96  58  96  60  84  54 /   0   0   0  30  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  97  62  93  59 /  10   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee     101  73  97  68  92  65 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Omak          100  68  97  63  92  59 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 021347
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
646 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Another hot and smokey day will be on tap today with triple digit
heat over much of central and southeast Washington. The ongoing
drought combined with high heat and low humidity will contribute
to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest. Temperatures
on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an increase in
clouds. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures and locally breezy
winds are expected Tuesday through Friday following the arrival
of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A quick update this morning to increase the amount of smoke across
northeast Washington and north Idaho this morning as seen on the
visible satellite images.

Today through Monday night: Expect one more hot and dry day
today, then expect conditions to gradually moisten up and cool
slightly. The ridge of high pressure will stay firm over the
Inland Northwest today as the surface trough spans from the
Columbia Basin to north Idaho. This ridge is expected to shift
east tonight into Monday as an upper trough of low pressure swings
down across B.C. This will enhance a moist southwest flow and
advect moisture and clouds into the region.

Temperatures: Only a degree or two change in temperatures is
expected today as low levels remain warm. It will be another hot
and unstable day. This could make current wildfire more active
once again. Could see a few near record highs, today in Moses
Lake, Plain, Stehekin and Omak. The heat advisory will continue
for another day in the LC valley as daytime temperatures top out
from 93 to 103. Monday`s temperatures will cool a few more degrees
with mainly 90s expected.

Winds/humidity: Downslope Cascade gap winds will be another
concern today especially with the extremely dry humidity levels,
from the upper single digits to mid teens. Wind speeds will
lighten up this morning and could see some terrain driven
upslope/up valley winds in sheltered valleys. Surface pressure
gradients are expected to tighten to about 4-5 mb this afternoon
and should see a repeat of gusty gap winds into the evening across
the Cascade valleys, but speeds don`t look to be as strong as
those on Saturday. Some local afternoon gusts of 15 mph are also
possible across the Columbia Basin as the dry and unstable
atmosphere mixes. Northwest to westerly winds will prevail for
much of the day on Monday although humidity values will gradually
increase.

Clouds/weather: Areas of smoke will be a concern this morning and
into the afternoon as the wildfires remain active. The Wolverine
fire near Lake Chelan will be the main culprit although other
smaller fires especially near the Canadian border will add to the
smokey haze. High clouds will be on the increase today as cirrus
rotates in from the southwest. This moisture is associated with a
monsoonal fetch coming up from California. This moisture will
increase tonight especially across the Cascades and could squeeze
a few sprinkles. A weak disturbance in the moist southwest flow
will ripple up the Cascades Monday morning with a small chance of
elevated convection and more sprinkles. As the upper trough drops
across B.C., this will push the disturbance and moisture band
across the Inland Northwest Monday afternoon and evening.
Instability will remain and this could generate more high based
thunderstorms across northeast Washington and north Idaho. There
looks to be a better chance of measurable precipitation across
north Idaho late Monday night, albeit it will still be light.
/rfox.

Tuesday and Wednesday: A 500mb low will reside over British
Columbia Tuesday and Wednesday. The evening runs of the GFS and
ECMWF are in decent agreement that the majority of eastern
Washington and north Idaho will be under the influence of dry
westerly flow Tuesday and Wednesday. However, there may be enough
cool cyclonic flow aloft along the Canadian border to allow the
formation of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
and Wednesday. A 20-30 percent chance for showers and
thunderstorms has also been retained for the Idaho Panhandle
mountains along the Montana border Tuesday, but the evening models
have trended quicker pushing moisture out of the Panhandle. If
this trend continues, Tuesday will be a dry day for most of the
Panhandle. Tuesday and Wednesday look breezy with sustained 10 to
15 mph common across the Basin, Palouse and Spokane area. Gusts to
20 mph will be likely in the afternoon with localized gusts in the
25 to 30 mph range through the Cascasde gaps during the early
evening hours. Even though temperatures will be trending down
Tuesday and Wednesday, wind and low relative humidity levels could
be a concern given the exceedingly dry conditions following the
heat of the weekend.

Thursday through Saturday: It is hard to get too excited about
chances for showers Thursday through Saturday. (Though....some of
us will be excited about the cooler, more seasonal temperatures.)
With the departure of the 500mb low out of British Columbia
Thursday night, the Pacific Northwest will be under a flat
westerly flow Thursday and Friday. The persistent on-shore flow
should bring a gradual increase in our surface dewpoints Thursday
through Saturday, but probably not enough to produce much
instability. There is a hint of a weak shorwave trough on
Saturday, so a 20 percent chance of mountain showers and
thunderstorms enters ther forecast Saturday afternoon. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Areas of smoke will be a concern for some of the TAF
sites in the next 24 hours, especially for KMWH where the
norther winds advect lcl MVFR conditions over the site. Expect
some improvement this afternoon with daytime mixing and westerly
winds. Otherwise smoke will be either high level or cause local
MVFR vsbys. Mid and high level clouds will increase through the
period. Winds should remain under 10kt this afternoon but local
higher gusts are possible. Downslope gap winds will increase after
02z especially in KEAT where speeds will reach around 14kt. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  95  66  87  59 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  59  97  61  87  56 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Pullman        98  56  93  58  86  53 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      104  68  99  68  93  63 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville      100  57  98  59  89  55 /   0   0  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      96  52  97  54  83  52 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Kellogg        96  58  96  60  84  54 /   0   0   0  30  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  97  62  93  59 /  10   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee     101  73  97  68  92  65 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Omak          100  68  97  63  92  59 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 021142
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
442 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Another hot and smokey day will be on tap today with triple digit
heat over much of central and southeast Washington. The ongoing
drought combined with high heat and low humidity will contribute
to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest. Temperatures
on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an increase in
clouds. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures and locally breezy
winds are expected Tuesday through Friday following the arrival
of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday night: Expect one more hot and dry day
today, then expect conditions to gradually moisten up and cool
slightly. The ridge of high pressure will stay firm over the
Inland Northwest today as the surface trough spans from the
Columbia Basin to north Idaho. This ridge is expected to shift
east tonight into Monday as an upper trough of low pressure swings
down across B.C. This will enhance a moist southwest flow and
advect moisture and clouds into the region.

Temperatures: Only a degree or two change in temperatures is
expected today as low levels remain warm. It will be another hot
and unstable day. This could make current wildfire more active
once again. Could see a few near record highs, today in Moses
Lake, Plain, Stehekin and Omak. The heat advisory will continue
for another day in the LC valley as daytime temperatures top out
from 93 to 103. Monday`s temperatures will cool a few more degrees
with mainly 90s expected.

Winds/humidity: Downslope Cascade gap winds will be another
concern today especially with the extremely dry humidity levels,
from the upper single digits to mid teens. Wind speeds will
lighten up this morning and could see some terrain driven
upslope/up valley winds in sheltered valleys. Surface pressure
gradients are expected to tighten to about 4-5 mb this afternoon
and should see a repeat of gusty gap winds into the evening across
the Cascade valleys, but speeds don`t look to be as strong as
those on Saturday. Some local afternoon gusts of 15 mph are also
possible across the Columbia Basin as the dry and unstable
atmosphere mixes. Northwest to westerly winds will prevail for
much of the day on Monday although humidity values will gradually
increase.

Clouds/weather: Areas of smoke will be a concern this morning and
into the afternoon as the wildfires remain active. The Wolverine
fire near Lake Chelan will be the main culprit although other
smaller fires especially near the Canadian border will add to the
smokey haze. High clouds will be on the increase today as cirrus
rotates in from the southwest. This moisture is associated with a
monsoonal fetch coming up from California. This moisture will
increase tonight especially across the Cascades and could squeeze
a few sprinkles. A weak disturbance in the moist southwest flow
will ripple up the Cascades Monday morning with a small chance of
elevated convection and more sprinkles. As the upper trough drops
across B.C., this will push the disturbance and moisture band
across the Inland Northwest Monday afternoon and evening.
Instability will remain and this could generate more high based
thunderstorms across northeast Washington and north Idaho. There
looks to be a better chance of measurable precipitation across
north Idaho late Monday night, albeit it will still be light.
/rfox.

Tuesday and Wednesday: A 500mb low will reside over British
Columbia Tuesday and Wednesday. The evening runs of the GFS and
ECMWF are in decent agreement that the majority of eastern
Washington and north Idaho will be under the influence of dry
westerly flow Tuesday and Wednesday. However, there may be enough
cool cyclonic flow aloft along the Canadian border to allow the
formation of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
and Wednesday. A 20-30 percent chance for showers and
thunderstorms has also been retained for the Idaho Panhandle
mountains along the Montana border Tuesday, but the evening models
have trended quicker pushing moisture out of the Panhandle. If
this trend continues, Tuesday will be a dry day for most of the
Panhandle. Tuesday and Wednesday look breezy with sustained 10 to
15 mph common across the Basin, Palouse and Spokane area. Gusts to
20 mph will be likely in the afternoon with localized gusts in the
25 to 30 mph range through the Cascasde gaps during the early
evening hours. Even though temperatures will be trending down
Tuesday and Wednesday, wind and low relative humidity levels could
be a concern given the exceedingly dry conditions following the
heat of the weekend.

Thursday through Saturday: It is hard to get too excited about
chances for showers Thursday through Saturday. (Though....some of
us will be excited about the cooler, more seasonal temperatures.)
With the departure of the 500mb low out of British Columbia
Thursday night, the Pacific Northwest will be under a flat
westerly flow Thursday and Friday. The persistent on-shore flow
should bring a gradual increase in our surface dewpoints Thursday
through Saturday, but probably not enough to produce much
instability. There is a hint of a weak shorwave trough on
Saturday, so a 20 percent chance of mountain showers and
thunderstorms enters ther forecast Saturday afternoon. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Areas of smoke will be a concern for some of the TAF
sites in the next 24 hours, especially for KMWH where the
norther winds advect lcl MVFR conditions over the site. Expect
some improvement this afternoon with daytime mixing and westerly
winds. Otherwise smoke will be either high level or cause local
MVFR vsbys. Mid and high level clouds will increase through the
period. Winds should remain under 10kt this afternoon but local
higher gusts are possible. Downslope gap winds will increase after
02z especially in KEAT where speeds will reach around 14kt. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  95  66  87  59 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  59  97  61  87  56 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Pullman        98  56  93  58  86  53 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      104  68  99  68  93  63 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville      100  57  98  59  89  55 /   0   0  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      96  52  97  54  83  52 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Kellogg        96  58  96  60  84  54 /   0   0   0  30  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  97  62  93  59 /  10   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee     101  73  97  68  92  65 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Omak          100  68  97  63  92  59 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 021142
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
442 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Another hot and smokey day will be on tap today with triple digit
heat over much of central and southeast Washington. The ongoing
drought combined with high heat and low humidity will contribute
to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest. Temperatures
on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an increase in
clouds. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures and locally breezy
winds are expected Tuesday through Friday following the arrival
of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday night: Expect one more hot and dry day
today, then expect conditions to gradually moisten up and cool
slightly. The ridge of high pressure will stay firm over the
Inland Northwest today as the surface trough spans from the
Columbia Basin to north Idaho. This ridge is expected to shift
east tonight into Monday as an upper trough of low pressure swings
down across B.C. This will enhance a moist southwest flow and
advect moisture and clouds into the region.

Temperatures: Only a degree or two change in temperatures is
expected today as low levels remain warm. It will be another hot
and unstable day. This could make current wildfire more active
once again. Could see a few near record highs, today in Moses
Lake, Plain, Stehekin and Omak. The heat advisory will continue
for another day in the LC valley as daytime temperatures top out
from 93 to 103. Monday`s temperatures will cool a few more degrees
with mainly 90s expected.

Winds/humidity: Downslope Cascade gap winds will be another
concern today especially with the extremely dry humidity levels,
from the upper single digits to mid teens. Wind speeds will
lighten up this morning and could see some terrain driven
upslope/up valley winds in sheltered valleys. Surface pressure
gradients are expected to tighten to about 4-5 mb this afternoon
and should see a repeat of gusty gap winds into the evening across
the Cascade valleys, but speeds don`t look to be as strong as
those on Saturday. Some local afternoon gusts of 15 mph are also
possible across the Columbia Basin as the dry and unstable
atmosphere mixes. Northwest to westerly winds will prevail for
much of the day on Monday although humidity values will gradually
increase.

Clouds/weather: Areas of smoke will be a concern this morning and
into the afternoon as the wildfires remain active. The Wolverine
fire near Lake Chelan will be the main culprit although other
smaller fires especially near the Canadian border will add to the
smokey haze. High clouds will be on the increase today as cirrus
rotates in from the southwest. This moisture is associated with a
monsoonal fetch coming up from California. This moisture will
increase tonight especially across the Cascades and could squeeze
a few sprinkles. A weak disturbance in the moist southwest flow
will ripple up the Cascades Monday morning with a small chance of
elevated convection and more sprinkles. As the upper trough drops
across B.C., this will push the disturbance and moisture band
across the Inland Northwest Monday afternoon and evening.
Instability will remain and this could generate more high based
thunderstorms across northeast Washington and north Idaho. There
looks to be a better chance of measurable precipitation across
north Idaho late Monday night, albeit it will still be light.
/rfox.

Tuesday and Wednesday: A 500mb low will reside over British
Columbia Tuesday and Wednesday. The evening runs of the GFS and
ECMWF are in decent agreement that the majority of eastern
Washington and north Idaho will be under the influence of dry
westerly flow Tuesday and Wednesday. However, there may be enough
cool cyclonic flow aloft along the Canadian border to allow the
formation of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
and Wednesday. A 20-30 percent chance for showers and
thunderstorms has also been retained for the Idaho Panhandle
mountains along the Montana border Tuesday, but the evening models
have trended quicker pushing moisture out of the Panhandle. If
this trend continues, Tuesday will be a dry day for most of the
Panhandle. Tuesday and Wednesday look breezy with sustained 10 to
15 mph common across the Basin, Palouse and Spokane area. Gusts to
20 mph will be likely in the afternoon with localized gusts in the
25 to 30 mph range through the Cascasde gaps during the early
evening hours. Even though temperatures will be trending down
Tuesday and Wednesday, wind and low relative humidity levels could
be a concern given the exceedingly dry conditions following the
heat of the weekend.

Thursday through Saturday: It is hard to get too excited about
chances for showers Thursday through Saturday. (Though....some of
us will be excited about the cooler, more seasonal temperatures.)
With the departure of the 500mb low out of British Columbia
Thursday night, the Pacific Northwest will be under a flat
westerly flow Thursday and Friday. The persistent on-shore flow
should bring a gradual increase in our surface dewpoints Thursday
through Saturday, but probably not enough to produce much
instability. There is a hint of a weak shorwave trough on
Saturday, so a 20 percent chance of mountain showers and
thunderstorms enters ther forecast Saturday afternoon. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Areas of smoke will be a concern for some of the TAF
sites in the next 24 hours, especially for KMWH where the
norther winds advect lcl MVFR conditions over the site. Expect
some improvement this afternoon with daytime mixing and westerly
winds. Otherwise smoke will be either high level or cause local
MVFR vsbys. Mid and high level clouds will increase through the
period. Winds should remain under 10kt this afternoon but local
higher gusts are possible. Downslope gap winds will increase after
02z especially in KEAT where speeds will reach around 14kt. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  95  66  87  59 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  59  97  61  87  56 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Pullman        98  56  93  58  86  53 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      104  68  99  68  93  63 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville      100  57  98  59  89  55 /   0   0  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      96  52  97  54  83  52 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Kellogg        96  58  96  60  84  54 /   0   0   0  30  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  97  62  93  59 /  10   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee     101  73  97  68  92  65 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Omak          100  68  97  63  92  59 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 021142
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
442 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Another hot and smokey day will be on tap today with triple digit
heat over much of central and southeast Washington. The ongoing
drought combined with high heat and low humidity will contribute
to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest. Temperatures
on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an increase in
clouds. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures and locally breezy
winds are expected Tuesday through Friday following the arrival
of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday night: Expect one more hot and dry day
today, then expect conditions to gradually moisten up and cool
slightly. The ridge of high pressure will stay firm over the
Inland Northwest today as the surface trough spans from the
Columbia Basin to north Idaho. This ridge is expected to shift
east tonight into Monday as an upper trough of low pressure swings
down across B.C. This will enhance a moist southwest flow and
advect moisture and clouds into the region.

Temperatures: Only a degree or two change in temperatures is
expected today as low levels remain warm. It will be another hot
and unstable day. This could make current wildfire more active
once again. Could see a few near record highs, today in Moses
Lake, Plain, Stehekin and Omak. The heat advisory will continue
for another day in the LC valley as daytime temperatures top out
from 93 to 103. Monday`s temperatures will cool a few more degrees
with mainly 90s expected.

Winds/humidity: Downslope Cascade gap winds will be another
concern today especially with the extremely dry humidity levels,
from the upper single digits to mid teens. Wind speeds will
lighten up this morning and could see some terrain driven
upslope/up valley winds in sheltered valleys. Surface pressure
gradients are expected to tighten to about 4-5 mb this afternoon
and should see a repeat of gusty gap winds into the evening across
the Cascade valleys, but speeds don`t look to be as strong as
those on Saturday. Some local afternoon gusts of 15 mph are also
possible across the Columbia Basin as the dry and unstable
atmosphere mixes. Northwest to westerly winds will prevail for
much of the day on Monday although humidity values will gradually
increase.

Clouds/weather: Areas of smoke will be a concern this morning and
into the afternoon as the wildfires remain active. The Wolverine
fire near Lake Chelan will be the main culprit although other
smaller fires especially near the Canadian border will add to the
smokey haze. High clouds will be on the increase today as cirrus
rotates in from the southwest. This moisture is associated with a
monsoonal fetch coming up from California. This moisture will
increase tonight especially across the Cascades and could squeeze
a few sprinkles. A weak disturbance in the moist southwest flow
will ripple up the Cascades Monday morning with a small chance of
elevated convection and more sprinkles. As the upper trough drops
across B.C., this will push the disturbance and moisture band
across the Inland Northwest Monday afternoon and evening.
Instability will remain and this could generate more high based
thunderstorms across northeast Washington and north Idaho. There
looks to be a better chance of measurable precipitation across
north Idaho late Monday night, albeit it will still be light.
/rfox.

Tuesday and Wednesday: A 500mb low will reside over British
Columbia Tuesday and Wednesday. The evening runs of the GFS and
ECMWF are in decent agreement that the majority of eastern
Washington and north Idaho will be under the influence of dry
westerly flow Tuesday and Wednesday. However, there may be enough
cool cyclonic flow aloft along the Canadian border to allow the
formation of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
and Wednesday. A 20-30 percent chance for showers and
thunderstorms has also been retained for the Idaho Panhandle
mountains along the Montana border Tuesday, but the evening models
have trended quicker pushing moisture out of the Panhandle. If
this trend continues, Tuesday will be a dry day for most of the
Panhandle. Tuesday and Wednesday look breezy with sustained 10 to
15 mph common across the Basin, Palouse and Spokane area. Gusts to
20 mph will be likely in the afternoon with localized gusts in the
25 to 30 mph range through the Cascasde gaps during the early
evening hours. Even though temperatures will be trending down
Tuesday and Wednesday, wind and low relative humidity levels could
be a concern given the exceedingly dry conditions following the
heat of the weekend.

Thursday through Saturday: It is hard to get too excited about
chances for showers Thursday through Saturday. (Though....some of
us will be excited about the cooler, more seasonal temperatures.)
With the departure of the 500mb low out of British Columbia
Thursday night, the Pacific Northwest will be under a flat
westerly flow Thursday and Friday. The persistent on-shore flow
should bring a gradual increase in our surface dewpoints Thursday
through Saturday, but probably not enough to produce much
instability. There is a hint of a weak shorwave trough on
Saturday, so a 20 percent chance of mountain showers and
thunderstorms enters ther forecast Saturday afternoon. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Areas of smoke will be a concern for some of the TAF
sites in the next 24 hours, especially for KMWH where the
norther winds advect lcl MVFR conditions over the site. Expect
some improvement this afternoon with daytime mixing and westerly
winds. Otherwise smoke will be either high level or cause local
MVFR vsbys. Mid and high level clouds will increase through the
period. Winds should remain under 10kt this afternoon but local
higher gusts are possible. Downslope gap winds will increase after
02z especially in KEAT where speeds will reach around 14kt. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  95  66  87  59 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  59  97  61  87  56 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Pullman        98  56  93  58  86  53 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      104  68  99  68  93  63 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville      100  57  98  59  89  55 /   0   0  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      96  52  97  54  83  52 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Kellogg        96  58  96  60  84  54 /   0   0   0  30  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  97  62  93  59 /  10   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee     101  73  97  68  92  65 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Omak          100  68  97  63  92  59 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 021142
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
442 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Another hot and smokey day will be on tap today with triple digit
heat over much of central and southeast Washington. The ongoing
drought combined with high heat and low humidity will contribute
to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest. Temperatures
on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an increase in
clouds. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures and locally breezy
winds are expected Tuesday through Friday following the arrival
of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday night: Expect one more hot and dry day
today, then expect conditions to gradually moisten up and cool
slightly. The ridge of high pressure will stay firm over the
Inland Northwest today as the surface trough spans from the
Columbia Basin to north Idaho. This ridge is expected to shift
east tonight into Monday as an upper trough of low pressure swings
down across B.C. This will enhance a moist southwest flow and
advect moisture and clouds into the region.

Temperatures: Only a degree or two change in temperatures is
expected today as low levels remain warm. It will be another hot
and unstable day. This could make current wildfire more active
once again. Could see a few near record highs, today in Moses
Lake, Plain, Stehekin and Omak. The heat advisory will continue
for another day in the LC valley as daytime temperatures top out
from 93 to 103. Monday`s temperatures will cool a few more degrees
with mainly 90s expected.

Winds/humidity: Downslope Cascade gap winds will be another
concern today especially with the extremely dry humidity levels,
from the upper single digits to mid teens. Wind speeds will
lighten up this morning and could see some terrain driven
upslope/up valley winds in sheltered valleys. Surface pressure
gradients are expected to tighten to about 4-5 mb this afternoon
and should see a repeat of gusty gap winds into the evening across
the Cascade valleys, but speeds don`t look to be as strong as
those on Saturday. Some local afternoon gusts of 15 mph are also
possible across the Columbia Basin as the dry and unstable
atmosphere mixes. Northwest to westerly winds will prevail for
much of the day on Monday although humidity values will gradually
increase.

Clouds/weather: Areas of smoke will be a concern this morning and
into the afternoon as the wildfires remain active. The Wolverine
fire near Lake Chelan will be the main culprit although other
smaller fires especially near the Canadian border will add to the
smokey haze. High clouds will be on the increase today as cirrus
rotates in from the southwest. This moisture is associated with a
monsoonal fetch coming up from California. This moisture will
increase tonight especially across the Cascades and could squeeze
a few sprinkles. A weak disturbance in the moist southwest flow
will ripple up the Cascades Monday morning with a small chance of
elevated convection and more sprinkles. As the upper trough drops
across B.C., this will push the disturbance and moisture band
across the Inland Northwest Monday afternoon and evening.
Instability will remain and this could generate more high based
thunderstorms across northeast Washington and north Idaho. There
looks to be a better chance of measurable precipitation across
north Idaho late Monday night, albeit it will still be light.
/rfox.

Tuesday and Wednesday: A 500mb low will reside over British
Columbia Tuesday and Wednesday. The evening runs of the GFS and
ECMWF are in decent agreement that the majority of eastern
Washington and north Idaho will be under the influence of dry
westerly flow Tuesday and Wednesday. However, there may be enough
cool cyclonic flow aloft along the Canadian border to allow the
formation of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
and Wednesday. A 20-30 percent chance for showers and
thunderstorms has also been retained for the Idaho Panhandle
mountains along the Montana border Tuesday, but the evening models
have trended quicker pushing moisture out of the Panhandle. If
this trend continues, Tuesday will be a dry day for most of the
Panhandle. Tuesday and Wednesday look breezy with sustained 10 to
15 mph common across the Basin, Palouse and Spokane area. Gusts to
20 mph will be likely in the afternoon with localized gusts in the
25 to 30 mph range through the Cascasde gaps during the early
evening hours. Even though temperatures will be trending down
Tuesday and Wednesday, wind and low relative humidity levels could
be a concern given the exceedingly dry conditions following the
heat of the weekend.

Thursday through Saturday: It is hard to get too excited about
chances for showers Thursday through Saturday. (Though....some of
us will be excited about the cooler, more seasonal temperatures.)
With the departure of the 500mb low out of British Columbia
Thursday night, the Pacific Northwest will be under a flat
westerly flow Thursday and Friday. The persistent on-shore flow
should bring a gradual increase in our surface dewpoints Thursday
through Saturday, but probably not enough to produce much
instability. There is a hint of a weak shorwave trough on
Saturday, so a 20 percent chance of mountain showers and
thunderstorms enters ther forecast Saturday afternoon. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Areas of smoke will be a concern for some of the TAF
sites in the next 24 hours, especially for KMWH where the
norther winds advect lcl MVFR conditions over the site. Expect
some improvement this afternoon with daytime mixing and westerly
winds. Otherwise smoke will be either high level or cause local
MVFR vsbys. Mid and high level clouds will increase through the
period. Winds should remain under 10kt this afternoon but local
higher gusts are possible. Downslope gap winds will increase after
02z especially in KEAT where speeds will reach around 14kt. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  95  66  87  59 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  59  97  61  87  56 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Pullman        98  56  93  58  86  53 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      104  68  99  68  93  63 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville      100  57  98  59  89  55 /   0   0  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      96  52  97  54  83  52 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Kellogg        96  58  96  60  84  54 /   0   0   0  30  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  97  62  93  59 /  10   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee     101  73  97  68  92  65 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Omak          100  68  97  63  92  59 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 021142
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
442 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Another hot and smokey day will be on tap today with triple digit
heat over much of central and southeast Washington. The ongoing
drought combined with high heat and low humidity will contribute
to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest. Temperatures
on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an increase in
clouds. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures and locally breezy
winds are expected Tuesday through Friday following the arrival
of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday night: Expect one more hot and dry day
today, then expect conditions to gradually moisten up and cool
slightly. The ridge of high pressure will stay firm over the
Inland Northwest today as the surface trough spans from the
Columbia Basin to north Idaho. This ridge is expected to shift
east tonight into Monday as an upper trough of low pressure swings
down across B.C. This will enhance a moist southwest flow and
advect moisture and clouds into the region.

Temperatures: Only a degree or two change in temperatures is
expected today as low levels remain warm. It will be another hot
and unstable day. This could make current wildfire more active
once again. Could see a few near record highs, today in Moses
Lake, Plain, Stehekin and Omak. The heat advisory will continue
for another day in the LC valley as daytime temperatures top out
from 93 to 103. Monday`s temperatures will cool a few more degrees
with mainly 90s expected.

Winds/humidity: Downslope Cascade gap winds will be another
concern today especially with the extremely dry humidity levels,
from the upper single digits to mid teens. Wind speeds will
lighten up this morning and could see some terrain driven
upslope/up valley winds in sheltered valleys. Surface pressure
gradients are expected to tighten to about 4-5 mb this afternoon
and should see a repeat of gusty gap winds into the evening across
the Cascade valleys, but speeds don`t look to be as strong as
those on Saturday. Some local afternoon gusts of 15 mph are also
possible across the Columbia Basin as the dry and unstable
atmosphere mixes. Northwest to westerly winds will prevail for
much of the day on Monday although humidity values will gradually
increase.

Clouds/weather: Areas of smoke will be a concern this morning and
into the afternoon as the wildfires remain active. The Wolverine
fire near Lake Chelan will be the main culprit although other
smaller fires especially near the Canadian border will add to the
smokey haze. High clouds will be on the increase today as cirrus
rotates in from the southwest. This moisture is associated with a
monsoonal fetch coming up from California. This moisture will
increase tonight especially across the Cascades and could squeeze
a few sprinkles. A weak disturbance in the moist southwest flow
will ripple up the Cascades Monday morning with a small chance of
elevated convection and more sprinkles. As the upper trough drops
across B.C., this will push the disturbance and moisture band
across the Inland Northwest Monday afternoon and evening.
Instability will remain and this could generate more high based
thunderstorms across northeast Washington and north Idaho. There
looks to be a better chance of measurable precipitation across
north Idaho late Monday night, albeit it will still be light.
/rfox.

Tuesday and Wednesday: A 500mb low will reside over British
Columbia Tuesday and Wednesday. The evening runs of the GFS and
ECMWF are in decent agreement that the majority of eastern
Washington and north Idaho will be under the influence of dry
westerly flow Tuesday and Wednesday. However, there may be enough
cool cyclonic flow aloft along the Canadian border to allow the
formation of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
and Wednesday. A 20-30 percent chance for showers and
thunderstorms has also been retained for the Idaho Panhandle
mountains along the Montana border Tuesday, but the evening models
have trended quicker pushing moisture out of the Panhandle. If
this trend continues, Tuesday will be a dry day for most of the
Panhandle. Tuesday and Wednesday look breezy with sustained 10 to
15 mph common across the Basin, Palouse and Spokane area. Gusts to
20 mph will be likely in the afternoon with localized gusts in the
25 to 30 mph range through the Cascasde gaps during the early
evening hours. Even though temperatures will be trending down
Tuesday and Wednesday, wind and low relative humidity levels could
be a concern given the exceedingly dry conditions following the
heat of the weekend.

Thursday through Saturday: It is hard to get too excited about
chances for showers Thursday through Saturday. (Though....some of
us will be excited about the cooler, more seasonal temperatures.)
With the departure of the 500mb low out of British Columbia
Thursday night, the Pacific Northwest will be under a flat
westerly flow Thursday and Friday. The persistent on-shore flow
should bring a gradual increase in our surface dewpoints Thursday
through Saturday, but probably not enough to produce much
instability. There is a hint of a weak shorwave trough on
Saturday, so a 20 percent chance of mountain showers and
thunderstorms enters ther forecast Saturday afternoon. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Areas of smoke will be a concern for some of the TAF
sites in the next 24 hours, especially for KMWH where the
norther winds advect lcl MVFR conditions over the site. Expect
some improvement this afternoon with daytime mixing and westerly
winds. Otherwise smoke will be either high level or cause local
MVFR vsbys. Mid and high level clouds will increase through the
period. Winds should remain under 10kt this afternoon but local
higher gusts are possible. Downslope gap winds will increase after
02z especially in KEAT where speeds will reach around 14kt. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  95  66  87  59 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  59  97  61  87  56 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Pullman        98  56  93  58  86  53 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      104  68  99  68  93  63 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville      100  57  98  59  89  55 /   0   0  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      96  52  97  54  83  52 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Kellogg        96  58  96  60  84  54 /   0   0   0  30  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  97  62  93  59 /  10   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee     101  73  97  68  92  65 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Omak          100  68  97  63  92  59 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 021142
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
442 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Another hot and smokey day will be on tap today with triple digit
heat over much of central and southeast Washington. The ongoing
drought combined with high heat and low humidity will contribute
to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest. Temperatures
on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an increase in
clouds. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures and locally breezy
winds are expected Tuesday through Friday following the arrival
of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday night: Expect one more hot and dry day
today, then expect conditions to gradually moisten up and cool
slightly. The ridge of high pressure will stay firm over the
Inland Northwest today as the surface trough spans from the
Columbia Basin to north Idaho. This ridge is expected to shift
east tonight into Monday as an upper trough of low pressure swings
down across B.C. This will enhance a moist southwest flow and
advect moisture and clouds into the region.

Temperatures: Only a degree or two change in temperatures is
expected today as low levels remain warm. It will be another hot
and unstable day. This could make current wildfire more active
once again. Could see a few near record highs, today in Moses
Lake, Plain, Stehekin and Omak. The heat advisory will continue
for another day in the LC valley as daytime temperatures top out
from 93 to 103. Monday`s temperatures will cool a few more degrees
with mainly 90s expected.

Winds/humidity: Downslope Cascade gap winds will be another
concern today especially with the extremely dry humidity levels,
from the upper single digits to mid teens. Wind speeds will
lighten up this morning and could see some terrain driven
upslope/up valley winds in sheltered valleys. Surface pressure
gradients are expected to tighten to about 4-5 mb this afternoon
and should see a repeat of gusty gap winds into the evening across
the Cascade valleys, but speeds don`t look to be as strong as
those on Saturday. Some local afternoon gusts of 15 mph are also
possible across the Columbia Basin as the dry and unstable
atmosphere mixes. Northwest to westerly winds will prevail for
much of the day on Monday although humidity values will gradually
increase.

Clouds/weather: Areas of smoke will be a concern this morning and
into the afternoon as the wildfires remain active. The Wolverine
fire near Lake Chelan will be the main culprit although other
smaller fires especially near the Canadian border will add to the
smokey haze. High clouds will be on the increase today as cirrus
rotates in from the southwest. This moisture is associated with a
monsoonal fetch coming up from California. This moisture will
increase tonight especially across the Cascades and could squeeze
a few sprinkles. A weak disturbance in the moist southwest flow
will ripple up the Cascades Monday morning with a small chance of
elevated convection and more sprinkles. As the upper trough drops
across B.C., this will push the disturbance and moisture band
across the Inland Northwest Monday afternoon and evening.
Instability will remain and this could generate more high based
thunderstorms across northeast Washington and north Idaho. There
looks to be a better chance of measurable precipitation across
north Idaho late Monday night, albeit it will still be light.
/rfox.

Tuesday and Wednesday: A 500mb low will reside over British
Columbia Tuesday and Wednesday. The evening runs of the GFS and
ECMWF are in decent agreement that the majority of eastern
Washington and north Idaho will be under the influence of dry
westerly flow Tuesday and Wednesday. However, there may be enough
cool cyclonic flow aloft along the Canadian border to allow the
formation of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
and Wednesday. A 20-30 percent chance for showers and
thunderstorms has also been retained for the Idaho Panhandle
mountains along the Montana border Tuesday, but the evening models
have trended quicker pushing moisture out of the Panhandle. If
this trend continues, Tuesday will be a dry day for most of the
Panhandle. Tuesday and Wednesday look breezy with sustained 10 to
15 mph common across the Basin, Palouse and Spokane area. Gusts to
20 mph will be likely in the afternoon with localized gusts in the
25 to 30 mph range through the Cascasde gaps during the early
evening hours. Even though temperatures will be trending down
Tuesday and Wednesday, wind and low relative humidity levels could
be a concern given the exceedingly dry conditions following the
heat of the weekend.

Thursday through Saturday: It is hard to get too excited about
chances for showers Thursday through Saturday. (Though....some of
us will be excited about the cooler, more seasonal temperatures.)
With the departure of the 500mb low out of British Columbia
Thursday night, the Pacific Northwest will be under a flat
westerly flow Thursday and Friday. The persistent on-shore flow
should bring a gradual increase in our surface dewpoints Thursday
through Saturday, but probably not enough to produce much
instability. There is a hint of a weak shorwave trough on
Saturday, so a 20 percent chance of mountain showers and
thunderstorms enters ther forecast Saturday afternoon. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Areas of smoke will be a concern for some of the TAF
sites in the next 24 hours, especially for KMWH where the
norther winds advect lcl MVFR conditions over the site. Expect
some improvement this afternoon with daytime mixing and westerly
winds. Otherwise smoke will be either high level or cause local
MVFR vsbys. Mid and high level clouds will increase through the
period. Winds should remain under 10kt this afternoon but local
higher gusts are possible. Downslope gap winds will increase after
02z especially in KEAT where speeds will reach around 14kt. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  95  66  87  59 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  59  97  61  87  56 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Pullman        98  56  93  58  86  53 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      104  68  99  68  93  63 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville      100  57  98  59  89  55 /   0   0  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      96  52  97  54  83  52 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Kellogg        96  58  96  60  84  54 /   0   0   0  30  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  97  62  93  59 /  10   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee     101  73  97  68  92  65 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Omak          100  68  97  63  92  59 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 021048
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST TODAY...THEN WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID
WEEK. WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND ALSO TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE PROVIDING THE RECENT STRETCH OF
DRY AND HOT WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY. SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE NEARLY FLAT THIS
MORNING WITH A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY IN OREGON NORTH THROUGH THE SW INTERIOR OF WA
OVER THE OLYMPICS. LIGHT OR WEAK OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
E OF THE LOW AXIS TODAY WITH SEA-BREEZE AFFECTS HINDERING POTENTIAL
HIGHS JUST A BIT NEAR THE WATER. 500 MB HEIGHTS DROP ABOUT 20M FROM
YESTERDAY BUT WITHOUT A DECENT ONSHORE PUSH...TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO TOP OUT CLOSE TO YESTERDAY`S HIGHS. TEMPERATURES WERE
NUDGED HIGHER BY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS WHICH
HAS PERFORMED BETTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND IS
THE WARMEST OF THE BUNCH FOR TODAY. IF SEA-TAC MANAGES TO HIT 90
DEGREES TODAY IT WILL AGAIN TIE THE RECORD FOR 5 CONSECUTIVE 90+
DEGREE DAYS FOR THE SECOND TIME THIS SUMMER.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY SHIFT E OF OUR
AREA OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES BY MONDAY. WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO FALL TONIGHT...MOST MODELS SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
ONSHORE FLOW OVER INTERIOR WRN WA RATHER THAN A SOLID STRONG ONSHORE
PUSH. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOW STRATUS MAKING A DEBUT IN THE STRAIT
AND AREAS NEAR THE E ENTRANCE...AND ALSO THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP.
WHILE SOME MARINE AIR FILTERS FURTHER INLAND...IT APPEARS LOW CLOUDS
MAY HOLD OFF OVER MUCH OF PUGET SOUND UNTIL A STRONGER ONSHORE PUSH
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER GIVEN THE
PARTIAL INTRODUCTION OF MARINE AIR AND LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS. HIGHS
WILL STAY IN THE 70S NEAR THE COAST AND UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR.

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTING DETECTION SHOWS A LINE OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST THIS MORNING EMBEDDED
IN SLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE WILL REACH WRN WA. THE
CURRENT FLOW AT 700 MB IS MORE SWLY ACROSS WRN WA WITH LIGHT WLY
FLOW AT 500 FLOW. WHILE MODELS INSIST SOME OF THIS MOISTURE REACHES
THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE FLOW PATTERN IS NOT ALL THAT
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS W OF THE CREST. REGARDLESS...THE
GFS/ECWMF DO STILL SHOW SOME LIGHT SPOTTY QPF ALONG THE CASCADE
CREST LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE
MORE LIKELY.

THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES
ACROSS WRN WA ON TUESDAY WITH DECENT HEIGHT FALLS. A STRONG ONSHORE
PUSH WILL DEVELOP LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUE TUESDAY. THIS MAY BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH SOLID MORNING CLOUDS...MOSTLY BURNING
OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PAC NW WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EWD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
MUCH LESS MOISTURE SO THERE IS LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION OVER
THE AREA. LEFT THE SHOWERS IN OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT IF ANY RAIN
DOES FALL IT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL AGAIN TOP OUT MOSTLY IN
THE 70S.

MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO VARY MORE STARTING THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
TREND IS TOWARD WEAK RIDGING. THIS MAY BE TRANSITORY BUT THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. THIS MAY CARRY OVER INTO FRIDAY BUT ANOTHER
TROUGH MAY APPROACH THE REGION AND THE AFFECTS COULD BEGIN TO BE
FELT FRIDAY OR OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY START TO MODERATE BY SAT
URDAY...FALLING BACK TO THE 70S OR LOW 80S...WHICH IS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THIS
NEXT WEEKEND IS LOW.  MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY WITH LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT. THE RIDGE IS MOVING E AND
ON MONDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
BE MOVING OVER CENTRAL B.C.

THE AIR MASS OVER W WA WILL REMAIN DRY AND VERY WARM AGAIN
TODAY...WITH THE DENSITY ALTITUDE HIGHER THAN NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVER THE AREA TODAY...REMNANTS OF
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. AS OF 3 AM STRATUS HAD NOT YET FORMED OVER
W WA ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL TIME FOR PATCHY IFR STRATUS TO FORM
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE STRAIT. OTHERWISE GOOD VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

KSEA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY FOR GOOD VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE NE 3-7 KT THROUGH 18Z THEN SHIFT NW 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. KAM

&&

.MARINE...AN OFFSHORE SURFACE RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURE
OVER E WA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE GFS INDICATES THE UIL-BLI PRESSURE GRADIENT
TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS LAST NIGHT...AND THE CANADIAN LAM
MODEL KEEPS WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. I WILL STICK WITH A HIGH
END SCA TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE OF A BRIEF GALE AT RACE ROCKS
CAN NEVER BE RULED OUT.

BORDERLINE SCA NW WINDS OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT SO THE SCA WAS EXTENDED. SCA NW WINDS ALSO
DEVELOPED OVER THE INNER COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND SOUTHWARD
LAST EVENING...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THAT WILL REPEAT AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS.

STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST. THERE IS A
HIGH PROBABILITY OF A GALE IN THE CENTRAL AND E STRAIT. THE GFS HAS
A 4.4 MB UIL-BLI PRESSURE GRADIENT AT 00Z...THE CANADIAN LAM MODEL
SHOWS GALE FORCE WINDS...AND THE U.S. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW SOLID
SCA WINDS.

THE GFS SHOWS PRETTY GOOD ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING PAST MID WEEK SO
AT THE VERY LEAST SCA W WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE STRAIT...WITH A
CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS AT TIMES. KAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED...RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED.
HOWEVER...IT JUST MEANS THAT WEATHER WILL BE LESS OF AN AGGRAVATING
FACTOR IN THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT. BACKGROUND FIRE DANGER WILL STILL BE
ELEVATED DUE TO DRY FUELS.

THE NEW WRINKLE IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST IS THE INTRODUCTION OF
ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING TO THE CASCADES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP AND BRING NORTH THE NEEDED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. TODAY`S
MODELS CAME AROUND TO SHOWING THE CASCADES AT THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF
A LARGER-SCALE LIGHTNING RISK AREA. THE FIRST THREAT OVER THE
CASCADES WILL BE FROM HIGH-BASED NOCTURNAL CONVECTION THAT COULD
BRING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING TO THE CASCADES FROM MOUNT RAINIER ON
SOUTH IN THE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY. THE LIGHTNING THREAT
WILL REACH THE NORTH CASCADES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN END ON
MONDAY EVENING. A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND THE STEADY FORWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS IS A RECIPE FOR SUB-WETTING RAINS WITH ANY
STORMS. HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR PARTS
     OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND TWO SOUTHERN
     INNER COASTAL WATERS ZONES...CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE
     FUCA...EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 021048
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST TODAY...THEN WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID
WEEK. WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND ALSO TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE PROVIDING THE RECENT STRETCH OF
DRY AND HOT WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY. SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE NEARLY FLAT THIS
MORNING WITH A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY IN OREGON NORTH THROUGH THE SW INTERIOR OF WA
OVER THE OLYMPICS. LIGHT OR WEAK OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
E OF THE LOW AXIS TODAY WITH SEA-BREEZE AFFECTS HINDERING POTENTIAL
HIGHS JUST A BIT NEAR THE WATER. 500 MB HEIGHTS DROP ABOUT 20M FROM
YESTERDAY BUT WITHOUT A DECENT ONSHORE PUSH...TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO TOP OUT CLOSE TO YESTERDAY`S HIGHS. TEMPERATURES WERE
NUDGED HIGHER BY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS WHICH
HAS PERFORMED BETTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND IS
THE WARMEST OF THE BUNCH FOR TODAY. IF SEA-TAC MANAGES TO HIT 90
DEGREES TODAY IT WILL AGAIN TIE THE RECORD FOR 5 CONSECUTIVE 90+
DEGREE DAYS FOR THE SECOND TIME THIS SUMMER.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY SHIFT E OF OUR
AREA OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES BY MONDAY. WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO FALL TONIGHT...MOST MODELS SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
ONSHORE FLOW OVER INTERIOR WRN WA RATHER THAN A SOLID STRONG ONSHORE
PUSH. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOW STRATUS MAKING A DEBUT IN THE STRAIT
AND AREAS NEAR THE E ENTRANCE...AND ALSO THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP.
WHILE SOME MARINE AIR FILTERS FURTHER INLAND...IT APPEARS LOW CLOUDS
MAY HOLD OFF OVER MUCH OF PUGET SOUND UNTIL A STRONGER ONSHORE PUSH
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER GIVEN THE
PARTIAL INTRODUCTION OF MARINE AIR AND LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS. HIGHS
WILL STAY IN THE 70S NEAR THE COAST AND UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR.

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTING DETECTION SHOWS A LINE OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST THIS MORNING EMBEDDED
IN SLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE WILL REACH WRN WA. THE
CURRENT FLOW AT 700 MB IS MORE SWLY ACROSS WRN WA WITH LIGHT WLY
FLOW AT 500 FLOW. WHILE MODELS INSIST SOME OF THIS MOISTURE REACHES
THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE FLOW PATTERN IS NOT ALL THAT
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS W OF THE CREST. REGARDLESS...THE
GFS/ECWMF DO STILL SHOW SOME LIGHT SPOTTY QPF ALONG THE CASCADE
CREST LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE
MORE LIKELY.

THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES
ACROSS WRN WA ON TUESDAY WITH DECENT HEIGHT FALLS. A STRONG ONSHORE
PUSH WILL DEVELOP LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUE TUESDAY. THIS MAY BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH SOLID MORNING CLOUDS...MOSTLY BURNING
OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PAC NW WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EWD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
MUCH LESS MOISTURE SO THERE IS LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION OVER
THE AREA. LEFT THE SHOWERS IN OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT IF ANY RAIN
DOES FALL IT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL AGAIN TOP OUT MOSTLY IN
THE 70S.

MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO VARY MORE STARTING THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
TREND IS TOWARD WEAK RIDGING. THIS MAY BE TRANSITORY BUT THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. THIS MAY CARRY OVER INTO FRIDAY BUT ANOTHER
TROUGH MAY APPROACH THE REGION AND THE AFFECTS COULD BEGIN TO BE
FELT FRIDAY OR OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY START TO MODERATE BY SAT
URDAY...FALLING BACK TO THE 70S OR LOW 80S...WHICH IS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THIS
NEXT WEEKEND IS LOW.  MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY WITH LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT. THE RIDGE IS MOVING E AND
ON MONDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
BE MOVING OVER CENTRAL B.C.

THE AIR MASS OVER W WA WILL REMAIN DRY AND VERY WARM AGAIN
TODAY...WITH THE DENSITY ALTITUDE HIGHER THAN NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVER THE AREA TODAY...REMNANTS OF
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. AS OF 3 AM STRATUS HAD NOT YET FORMED OVER
W WA ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL TIME FOR PATCHY IFR STRATUS TO FORM
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE STRAIT. OTHERWISE GOOD VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

KSEA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY FOR GOOD VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE NE 3-7 KT THROUGH 18Z THEN SHIFT NW 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. KAM

&&

.MARINE...AN OFFSHORE SURFACE RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURE
OVER E WA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE GFS INDICATES THE UIL-BLI PRESSURE GRADIENT
TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS LAST NIGHT...AND THE CANADIAN LAM
MODEL KEEPS WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. I WILL STICK WITH A HIGH
END SCA TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE OF A BRIEF GALE AT RACE ROCKS
CAN NEVER BE RULED OUT.

BORDERLINE SCA NW WINDS OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT SO THE SCA WAS EXTENDED. SCA NW WINDS ALSO
DEVELOPED OVER THE INNER COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND SOUTHWARD
LAST EVENING...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THAT WILL REPEAT AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS.

STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST. THERE IS A
HIGH PROBABILITY OF A GALE IN THE CENTRAL AND E STRAIT. THE GFS HAS
A 4.4 MB UIL-BLI PRESSURE GRADIENT AT 00Z...THE CANADIAN LAM MODEL
SHOWS GALE FORCE WINDS...AND THE U.S. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW SOLID
SCA WINDS.

THE GFS SHOWS PRETTY GOOD ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING PAST MID WEEK SO
AT THE VERY LEAST SCA W WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE STRAIT...WITH A
CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS AT TIMES. KAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED...RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED.
HOWEVER...IT JUST MEANS THAT WEATHER WILL BE LESS OF AN AGGRAVATING
FACTOR IN THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT. BACKGROUND FIRE DANGER WILL STILL BE
ELEVATED DUE TO DRY FUELS.

THE NEW WRINKLE IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST IS THE INTRODUCTION OF
ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING TO THE CASCADES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP AND BRING NORTH THE NEEDED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. TODAY`S
MODELS CAME AROUND TO SHOWING THE CASCADES AT THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF
A LARGER-SCALE LIGHTNING RISK AREA. THE FIRST THREAT OVER THE
CASCADES WILL BE FROM HIGH-BASED NOCTURNAL CONVECTION THAT COULD
BRING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING TO THE CASCADES FROM MOUNT RAINIER ON
SOUTH IN THE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY. THE LIGHTNING THREAT
WILL REACH THE NORTH CASCADES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN END ON
MONDAY EVENING. A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND THE STEADY FORWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS IS A RECIPE FOR SUB-WETTING RAINS WITH ANY
STORMS. HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR PARTS
     OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND TWO SOUTHERN
     INNER COASTAL WATERS ZONES...CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE
     FUCA...EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KSEW 021048
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST TODAY...THEN WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID
WEEK. WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND ALSO TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE PROVIDING THE RECENT STRETCH OF
DRY AND HOT WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY. SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE NEARLY FLAT THIS
MORNING WITH A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY IN OREGON NORTH THROUGH THE SW INTERIOR OF WA
OVER THE OLYMPICS. LIGHT OR WEAK OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
E OF THE LOW AXIS TODAY WITH SEA-BREEZE AFFECTS HINDERING POTENTIAL
HIGHS JUST A BIT NEAR THE WATER. 500 MB HEIGHTS DROP ABOUT 20M FROM
YESTERDAY BUT WITHOUT A DECENT ONSHORE PUSH...TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO TOP OUT CLOSE TO YESTERDAY`S HIGHS. TEMPERATURES WERE
NUDGED HIGHER BY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS WHICH
HAS PERFORMED BETTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND IS
THE WARMEST OF THE BUNCH FOR TODAY. IF SEA-TAC MANAGES TO HIT 90
DEGREES TODAY IT WILL AGAIN TIE THE RECORD FOR 5 CONSECUTIVE 90+
DEGREE DAYS FOR THE SECOND TIME THIS SUMMER.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY SHIFT E OF OUR
AREA OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES BY MONDAY. WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO FALL TONIGHT...MOST MODELS SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
ONSHORE FLOW OVER INTERIOR WRN WA RATHER THAN A SOLID STRONG ONSHORE
PUSH. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOW STRATUS MAKING A DEBUT IN THE STRAIT
AND AREAS NEAR THE E ENTRANCE...AND ALSO THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP.
WHILE SOME MARINE AIR FILTERS FURTHER INLAND...IT APPEARS LOW CLOUDS
MAY HOLD OFF OVER MUCH OF PUGET SOUND UNTIL A STRONGER ONSHORE PUSH
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER GIVEN THE
PARTIAL INTRODUCTION OF MARINE AIR AND LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS. HIGHS
WILL STAY IN THE 70S NEAR THE COAST AND UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR.

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTING DETECTION SHOWS A LINE OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST THIS MORNING EMBEDDED
IN SLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE WILL REACH WRN WA. THE
CURRENT FLOW AT 700 MB IS MORE SWLY ACROSS WRN WA WITH LIGHT WLY
FLOW AT 500 FLOW. WHILE MODELS INSIST SOME OF THIS MOISTURE REACHES
THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE FLOW PATTERN IS NOT ALL THAT
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS W OF THE CREST. REGARDLESS...THE
GFS/ECWMF DO STILL SHOW SOME LIGHT SPOTTY QPF ALONG THE CASCADE
CREST LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE
MORE LIKELY.

THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES
ACROSS WRN WA ON TUESDAY WITH DECENT HEIGHT FALLS. A STRONG ONSHORE
PUSH WILL DEVELOP LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUE TUESDAY. THIS MAY BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH SOLID MORNING CLOUDS...MOSTLY BURNING
OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PAC NW WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EWD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
MUCH LESS MOISTURE SO THERE IS LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION OVER
THE AREA. LEFT THE SHOWERS IN OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT IF ANY RAIN
DOES FALL IT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL AGAIN TOP OUT MOSTLY IN
THE 70S.

MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO VARY MORE STARTING THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
TREND IS TOWARD WEAK RIDGING. THIS MAY BE TRANSITORY BUT THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. THIS MAY CARRY OVER INTO FRIDAY BUT ANOTHER
TROUGH MAY APPROACH THE REGION AND THE AFFECTS COULD BEGIN TO BE
FELT FRIDAY OR OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY START TO MODERATE BY SAT
URDAY...FALLING BACK TO THE 70S OR LOW 80S...WHICH IS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THIS
NEXT WEEKEND IS LOW.  MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY WITH LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT. THE RIDGE IS MOVING E AND
ON MONDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
BE MOVING OVER CENTRAL B.C.

THE AIR MASS OVER W WA WILL REMAIN DRY AND VERY WARM AGAIN
TODAY...WITH THE DENSITY ALTITUDE HIGHER THAN NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVER THE AREA TODAY...REMNANTS OF
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. AS OF 3 AM STRATUS HAD NOT YET FORMED OVER
W WA ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL TIME FOR PATCHY IFR STRATUS TO FORM
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE STRAIT. OTHERWISE GOOD VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

KSEA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY FOR GOOD VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE NE 3-7 KT THROUGH 18Z THEN SHIFT NW 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. KAM

&&

.MARINE...AN OFFSHORE SURFACE RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURE
OVER E WA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE GFS INDICATES THE UIL-BLI PRESSURE GRADIENT
TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS LAST NIGHT...AND THE CANADIAN LAM
MODEL KEEPS WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. I WILL STICK WITH A HIGH
END SCA TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE OF A BRIEF GALE AT RACE ROCKS
CAN NEVER BE RULED OUT.

BORDERLINE SCA NW WINDS OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT SO THE SCA WAS EXTENDED. SCA NW WINDS ALSO
DEVELOPED OVER THE INNER COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND SOUTHWARD
LAST EVENING...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THAT WILL REPEAT AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS.

STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST. THERE IS A
HIGH PROBABILITY OF A GALE IN THE CENTRAL AND E STRAIT. THE GFS HAS
A 4.4 MB UIL-BLI PRESSURE GRADIENT AT 00Z...THE CANADIAN LAM MODEL
SHOWS GALE FORCE WINDS...AND THE U.S. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW SOLID
SCA WINDS.

THE GFS SHOWS PRETTY GOOD ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING PAST MID WEEK SO
AT THE VERY LEAST SCA W WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE STRAIT...WITH A
CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS AT TIMES. KAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED...RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED.
HOWEVER...IT JUST MEANS THAT WEATHER WILL BE LESS OF AN AGGRAVATING
FACTOR IN THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT. BACKGROUND FIRE DANGER WILL STILL BE
ELEVATED DUE TO DRY FUELS.

THE NEW WRINKLE IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST IS THE INTRODUCTION OF
ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING TO THE CASCADES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP AND BRING NORTH THE NEEDED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. TODAY`S
MODELS CAME AROUND TO SHOWING THE CASCADES AT THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF
A LARGER-SCALE LIGHTNING RISK AREA. THE FIRST THREAT OVER THE
CASCADES WILL BE FROM HIGH-BASED NOCTURNAL CONVECTION THAT COULD
BRING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING TO THE CASCADES FROM MOUNT RAINIER ON
SOUTH IN THE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY. THE LIGHTNING THREAT
WILL REACH THE NORTH CASCADES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN END ON
MONDAY EVENING. A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND THE STEADY FORWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS IS A RECIPE FOR SUB-WETTING RAINS WITH ANY
STORMS. HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR PARTS
     OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND TWO SOUTHERN
     INNER COASTAL WATERS ZONES...CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE
     FUCA...EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 021048
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST TODAY...THEN WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID
WEEK. WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND ALSO TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE PROVIDING THE RECENT STRETCH OF
DRY AND HOT WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY. SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE NEARLY FLAT THIS
MORNING WITH A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY IN OREGON NORTH THROUGH THE SW INTERIOR OF WA
OVER THE OLYMPICS. LIGHT OR WEAK OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
E OF THE LOW AXIS TODAY WITH SEA-BREEZE AFFECTS HINDERING POTENTIAL
HIGHS JUST A BIT NEAR THE WATER. 500 MB HEIGHTS DROP ABOUT 20M FROM
YESTERDAY BUT WITHOUT A DECENT ONSHORE PUSH...TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO TOP OUT CLOSE TO YESTERDAY`S HIGHS. TEMPERATURES WERE
NUDGED HIGHER BY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS WHICH
HAS PERFORMED BETTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND IS
THE WARMEST OF THE BUNCH FOR TODAY. IF SEA-TAC MANAGES TO HIT 90
DEGREES TODAY IT WILL AGAIN TIE THE RECORD FOR 5 CONSECUTIVE 90+
DEGREE DAYS FOR THE SECOND TIME THIS SUMMER.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY SHIFT E OF OUR
AREA OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES BY MONDAY. WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO FALL TONIGHT...MOST MODELS SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
ONSHORE FLOW OVER INTERIOR WRN WA RATHER THAN A SOLID STRONG ONSHORE
PUSH. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOW STRATUS MAKING A DEBUT IN THE STRAIT
AND AREAS NEAR THE E ENTRANCE...AND ALSO THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP.
WHILE SOME MARINE AIR FILTERS FURTHER INLAND...IT APPEARS LOW CLOUDS
MAY HOLD OFF OVER MUCH OF PUGET SOUND UNTIL A STRONGER ONSHORE PUSH
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER GIVEN THE
PARTIAL INTRODUCTION OF MARINE AIR AND LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS. HIGHS
WILL STAY IN THE 70S NEAR THE COAST AND UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR.

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTING DETECTION SHOWS A LINE OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST THIS MORNING EMBEDDED
IN SLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE WILL REACH WRN WA. THE
CURRENT FLOW AT 700 MB IS MORE SWLY ACROSS WRN WA WITH LIGHT WLY
FLOW AT 500 FLOW. WHILE MODELS INSIST SOME OF THIS MOISTURE REACHES
THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE FLOW PATTERN IS NOT ALL THAT
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS W OF THE CREST. REGARDLESS...THE
GFS/ECWMF DO STILL SHOW SOME LIGHT SPOTTY QPF ALONG THE CASCADE
CREST LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE
MORE LIKELY.

THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES
ACROSS WRN WA ON TUESDAY WITH DECENT HEIGHT FALLS. A STRONG ONSHORE
PUSH WILL DEVELOP LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUE TUESDAY. THIS MAY BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH SOLID MORNING CLOUDS...MOSTLY BURNING
OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PAC NW WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EWD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
MUCH LESS MOISTURE SO THERE IS LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION OVER
THE AREA. LEFT THE SHOWERS IN OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT IF ANY RAIN
DOES FALL IT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL AGAIN TOP OUT MOSTLY IN
THE 70S.

MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO VARY MORE STARTING THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
TREND IS TOWARD WEAK RIDGING. THIS MAY BE TRANSITORY BUT THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. THIS MAY CARRY OVER INTO FRIDAY BUT ANOTHER
TROUGH MAY APPROACH THE REGION AND THE AFFECTS COULD BEGIN TO BE
FELT FRIDAY OR OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY START TO MODERATE BY SAT
URDAY...FALLING BACK TO THE 70S OR LOW 80S...WHICH IS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THIS
NEXT WEEKEND IS LOW.  MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY WITH LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT. THE RIDGE IS MOVING E AND
ON MONDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
BE MOVING OVER CENTRAL B.C.

THE AIR MASS OVER W WA WILL REMAIN DRY AND VERY WARM AGAIN
TODAY...WITH THE DENSITY ALTITUDE HIGHER THAN NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVER THE AREA TODAY...REMNANTS OF
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. AS OF 3 AM STRATUS HAD NOT YET FORMED OVER
W WA ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL TIME FOR PATCHY IFR STRATUS TO FORM
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE STRAIT. OTHERWISE GOOD VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

KSEA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY FOR GOOD VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE NE 3-7 KT THROUGH 18Z THEN SHIFT NW 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. KAM

&&

.MARINE...AN OFFSHORE SURFACE RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURE
OVER E WA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE GFS INDICATES THE UIL-BLI PRESSURE GRADIENT
TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS LAST NIGHT...AND THE CANADIAN LAM
MODEL KEEPS WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. I WILL STICK WITH A HIGH
END SCA TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE OF A BRIEF GALE AT RACE ROCKS
CAN NEVER BE RULED OUT.

BORDERLINE SCA NW WINDS OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT SO THE SCA WAS EXTENDED. SCA NW WINDS ALSO
DEVELOPED OVER THE INNER COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND SOUTHWARD
LAST EVENING...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THAT WILL REPEAT AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS.

STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST. THERE IS A
HIGH PROBABILITY OF A GALE IN THE CENTRAL AND E STRAIT. THE GFS HAS
A 4.4 MB UIL-BLI PRESSURE GRADIENT AT 00Z...THE CANADIAN LAM MODEL
SHOWS GALE FORCE WINDS...AND THE U.S. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW SOLID
SCA WINDS.

THE GFS SHOWS PRETTY GOOD ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING PAST MID WEEK SO
AT THE VERY LEAST SCA W WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE STRAIT...WITH A
CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS AT TIMES. KAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED...RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED.
HOWEVER...IT JUST MEANS THAT WEATHER WILL BE LESS OF AN AGGRAVATING
FACTOR IN THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT. BACKGROUND FIRE DANGER WILL STILL BE
ELEVATED DUE TO DRY FUELS.

THE NEW WRINKLE IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST IS THE INTRODUCTION OF
ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING TO THE CASCADES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP AND BRING NORTH THE NEEDED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. TODAY`S
MODELS CAME AROUND TO SHOWING THE CASCADES AT THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF
A LARGER-SCALE LIGHTNING RISK AREA. THE FIRST THREAT OVER THE
CASCADES WILL BE FROM HIGH-BASED NOCTURNAL CONVECTION THAT COULD
BRING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING TO THE CASCADES FROM MOUNT RAINIER ON
SOUTH IN THE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY. THE LIGHTNING THREAT
WILL REACH THE NORTH CASCADES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN END ON
MONDAY EVENING. A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND THE STEADY FORWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS IS A RECIPE FOR SUB-WETTING RAINS WITH ANY
STORMS. HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR PARTS
     OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND TWO SOUTHERN
     INNER COASTAL WATERS ZONES...CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE
     FUCA...EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KOTX 020948
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
248 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Another hot and smokey day will be on tap today with triple digit
heat over much of central and southeast Washington. The ongoing
drought combined with high heat and low humidity will contribute
to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest. Temperatures
on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an increase in
clouds. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures and locally breezy
winds are expected Tuesday through Friday following the arrival
of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday night: Expect one more hot and dry day
today, then expect conditions to gradually moisten up and cool
slightly. The ridge of high pressure will stay firm over the
Inland Northwest today as the surface trough spans from the
Columbia Basin to north Idaho. This ridge is expected to shift
east tonight into Monday as an upper trough of low pressure swings
down across B.C. This will enhance a moist southwest flow and
advect moisture and clouds into the region.

Temperatures: Only a degree or two change in temperatures is
expected today as low levels remain warm. It will be another hot
and unstable day. This could make current wildfire more active
once again. Could see a few near record highs, today in Moses
Lake, Plain, Stehekin and Omak. The heat advisory will continue
for another day in the LC valley as daytime temperatures top out
from 93 to 103. Monday`s temperatures will cool a few more degrees
with mainly 90s expected.

Winds/humidity: Downslope Cascade gap winds will be another
concern today especially with the extremely dry humidity levels,
from the upper single digits to mid teens. Wind speeds will
lighten up this morning and could see some terrain driven
upslope/up valley winds in sheltered valleys. Surface pressure
gradients are expected to tighten to about 4-5 mb this afternoon
and should see a repeat of gusty gap winds into the evening across
the Cascade valleys, but speeds don`t look to be as strong as
those on Saturday. Some local afternoon gusts of 15 mph are also
possible across the Columbia Basin as the dry and unstable
atmosphere mixes. Northwest to westerly winds will prevail for
much of the day on Monday although humidity values will gradually
increase.

Clouds/weather: Areas of smoke will be a concern this morning and
into the afternoon as the wildfires remain active. The Wolverine
fire near Lake Chelan will be the main culprit although other
smaller fires especially near the Canadian border will add to the
smokey haze. High clouds will be on the increase today as cirrus
rotates in from the southwest. This moisture is associated with a
monsoonal fetch coming up from California. This moisture will
increase tonight especially across the Cascades and could squeeze
a few sprinkles. A weak disturbance in the moist southwest flow
will ripple up the Cascades Monday morning with a small chance of
elevated convection and more sprinkles. As the upper trough drops
across B.C., this will push the disturbance and moisture band
across the Inland Northwest Monday afternoon and evening.
Instability will remain and this could generate more high based
thunderstorms across northeast Washington and north Idaho. There
looks to be a better chance of measurable precipitation across
north Idaho late Monday night, albeit it will still be light.
/rfox.

Tuesday and Wednesday: A 500mb low will reside over British
Columbia Tuesday and Wednesday. The evening runs of the GFS and
ECMWF are in decent agreement that the majority of eastern
Washington and north Idaho will be under the influence of dry
westerly flow Tuesday and Wednesday. However, there may be enough
cool cyclonic flow aloft along the Canadian border to allow the
formation of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
and Wednesday. A 20-30 percent chance for showers and
thunderstorms has also been retained for the Idaho Panhandle
mountains along the Montana border Tuesday, but the evening models
have trended quicker pushing moisture out of the Panhandle. If
this trend continues, Tuesday will be a dry day for most of the
Panhandle. Tuesday and Wednesday look breezy with sustained 10 to
15 mph common across the Basin, Palouse and Spokane area. Gusts to
20 mph will be likely in the afternoon with localized gusts in the
25 to 30 mph range through the Cascasde gaps during the early
evening hours. Even though temperatures will be trending down
Tuesday and Wednesday, wind and low relative humidity levels could
be a concern given the exceedingly dry conditions following the
heat of the weekend.

Thursday through Saturday: It is hard to get too excited about
chances for showers Thursday through Saturday. (Though....some of
us will be excited about the cooler, more seasonal temperatures.)
With the departure of the 500mb low out of British Columbia
Thursday night, the Pacific Northwest will be under a flat
westerly flow Thursday and Friday. The persistent on-shore flow
should bring a gradual increase in our surface dewpoints Thursday
through Saturday, but probably not enough to produce much
instability. There is a hint of a weak shorwave trough on
Saturday, so a 20 percent chance of mountain showers and
thunderstorms enters ther forecast Saturday afternoon. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Smoke will continue to be the main aviation concern
through Sunday. The smoke will be most prevalent in portions of
central Washington near the Wolverine Fire. Lower level smoke
will increase around Chelan tonight, with the BlueSky model
keeping this smoke east of KEAT again...but impacting KMWH
overnight into Sunday morning. Confidence is not high concerning
timing of MVFR visibility as KMWH...so went with a compromise
between timing of BlueSky model and persistance. Some improvement
is expected Sunday afternoon at KMWH as surface winds switch from
N-NW to SW. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  95  66  87  59 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  59  97  61  87  56 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Pullman        98  56  93  58  86  53 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      104  68  99  68  93  63 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville      100  57  98  59  89  55 /   0   0  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      96  52  97  54  83  52 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Kellogg        96  58  96  60  84  54 /   0   0   0  30  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  97  62  93  59 /  10   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee     101  73  97  68  92  65 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Omak          100  68  97  63  92  59 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 020948
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
248 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Another hot and smokey day will be on tap today with triple digit
heat over much of central and southeast Washington. The ongoing
drought combined with high heat and low humidity will contribute
to high fire danger throughout the Inland Northwest. Temperatures
on Monday should be a few degrees cooler with an increase in
clouds. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures and locally breezy
winds are expected Tuesday through Friday following the arrival
of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday night: Expect one more hot and dry day
today, then expect conditions to gradually moisten up and cool
slightly. The ridge of high pressure will stay firm over the
Inland Northwest today as the surface trough spans from the
Columbia Basin to north Idaho. This ridge is expected to shift
east tonight into Monday as an upper trough of low pressure swings
down across B.C. This will enhance a moist southwest flow and
advect moisture and clouds into the region.

Temperatures: Only a degree or two change in temperatures is
expected today as low levels remain warm. It will be another hot
and unstable day. This could make current wildfire more active
once again. Could see a few near record highs, today in Moses
Lake, Plain, Stehekin and Omak. The heat advisory will continue
for another day in the LC valley as daytime temperatures top out
from 93 to 103. Monday`s temperatures will cool a few more degrees
with mainly 90s expected.

Winds/humidity: Downslope Cascade gap winds will be another
concern today especially with the extremely dry humidity levels,
from the upper single digits to mid teens. Wind speeds will
lighten up this morning and could see some terrain driven
upslope/up valley winds in sheltered valleys. Surface pressure
gradients are expected to tighten to about 4-5 mb this afternoon
and should see a repeat of gusty gap winds into the evening across
the Cascade valleys, but speeds don`t look to be as strong as
those on Saturday. Some local afternoon gusts of 15 mph are also
possible across the Columbia Basin as the dry and unstable
atmosphere mixes. Northwest to westerly winds will prevail for
much of the day on Monday although humidity values will gradually
increase.

Clouds/weather: Areas of smoke will be a concern this morning and
into the afternoon as the wildfires remain active. The Wolverine
fire near Lake Chelan will be the main culprit although other
smaller fires especially near the Canadian border will add to the
smokey haze. High clouds will be on the increase today as cirrus
rotates in from the southwest. This moisture is associated with a
monsoonal fetch coming up from California. This moisture will
increase tonight especially across the Cascades and could squeeze
a few sprinkles. A weak disturbance in the moist southwest flow
will ripple up the Cascades Monday morning with a small chance of
elevated convection and more sprinkles. As the upper trough drops
across B.C., this will push the disturbance and moisture band
across the Inland Northwest Monday afternoon and evening.
Instability will remain and this could generate more high based
thunderstorms across northeast Washington and north Idaho. There
looks to be a better chance of measurable precipitation across
north Idaho late Monday night, albeit it will still be light.
/rfox.

Tuesday and Wednesday: A 500mb low will reside over British
Columbia Tuesday and Wednesday. The evening runs of the GFS and
ECMWF are in decent agreement that the majority of eastern
Washington and north Idaho will be under the influence of dry
westerly flow Tuesday and Wednesday. However, there may be enough
cool cyclonic flow aloft along the Canadian border to allow the
formation of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
and Wednesday. A 20-30 percent chance for showers and
thunderstorms has also been retained for the Idaho Panhandle
mountains along the Montana border Tuesday, but the evening models
have trended quicker pushing moisture out of the Panhandle. If
this trend continues, Tuesday will be a dry day for most of the
Panhandle. Tuesday and Wednesday look breezy with sustained 10 to
15 mph common across the Basin, Palouse and Spokane area. Gusts to
20 mph will be likely in the afternoon with localized gusts in the
25 to 30 mph range through the Cascasde gaps during the early
evening hours. Even though temperatures will be trending down
Tuesday and Wednesday, wind and low relative humidity levels could
be a concern given the exceedingly dry conditions following the
heat of the weekend.

Thursday through Saturday: It is hard to get too excited about
chances for showers Thursday through Saturday. (Though....some of
us will be excited about the cooler, more seasonal temperatures.)
With the departure of the 500mb low out of British Columbia
Thursday night, the Pacific Northwest will be under a flat
westerly flow Thursday and Friday. The persistent on-shore flow
should bring a gradual increase in our surface dewpoints Thursday
through Saturday, but probably not enough to produce much
instability. There is a hint of a weak shorwave trough on
Saturday, so a 20 percent chance of mountain showers and
thunderstorms enters ther forecast Saturday afternoon. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Smoke will continue to be the main aviation concern
through Sunday. The smoke will be most prevalent in portions of
central Washington near the Wolverine Fire. Lower level smoke
will increase around Chelan tonight, with the BlueSky model
keeping this smoke east of KEAT again...but impacting KMWH
overnight into Sunday morning. Confidence is not high concerning
timing of MVFR visibility as KMWH...so went with a compromise
between timing of BlueSky model and persistance. Some improvement
is expected Sunday afternoon at KMWH as surface winds switch from
N-NW to SW. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  95  66  87  59 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  59  97  61  87  56 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Pullman        98  56  93  58  86  53 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston      104  68  99  68  93  63 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville      100  57  98  59  89  55 /   0   0  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      96  52  97  54  83  52 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Kellogg        96  58  96  60  84  54 /   0   0   0  30  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  97  62  93  59 /  10   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee     101  73  97  68  92  65 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Omak          100  68  97  63  92  59 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 020943
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
243 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT E TODAY AND MON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL STEER SOME MOISTURE N OVER WESTERN OREGON INTO
MONDAY BRINGING A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR GRADUAL COOLING.
&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS TENDING TO
REGENERATE OVER COASTAL PARTS OF SW OREGON AND UP OFF THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST. THIS IS AN AREA AT THE HEAD OF A DRY SLOT SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH TENDS TO BE FAVORED FOR CONVECTION.
EVENING MVFR SOUNDING SUGGESTS CONVECTION IS FAIRLY HIGH
BASED...DRIVEN BY INSTABILITY ALOFT AND WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE
UPPER RIDGE DOMINANT THE LAST FEW DAYS WAS BEGINNING TO SHIFT
E...ALLOWING THE LOW OFF THE CA COAST TO LIFT HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY N. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING
THROUGH SUN NIGHT IT BECOMES DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT
CONVECTION ANYWHERE...ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INSTABILITY
ALOFT IS MARGINAL AT BEST. FOR THE MORNING WILL STICK WITH CURRENT
TRENDS AND SUPPORTED BEST BY HRRR...AND EXPAND THE AREA FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS N...ESP UP THE COAST. BY AFTERNOON MODELS RETURN
TO FAVORING CASCADES WITH BEST CONDITIONS FOR INSTABILITY...BUT
AGAIN WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT HIGH BASED WILL CARRY A THREAT W TO
THE COAST. MODELS TENDING TO INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING N
THROUGH WESTERN OREGON OVERNIGHT TONIGHT PROVIDING A POTENTIAL FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM THREAT...SO WILL EXPAND CHANCES FOR THUNDER FURTHER
N AND W INTO THE COAST RANGE...BUT KEEP POPS LOW DUE TO MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE ALOFT AND AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE
FLOW...ESP ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST RANGE OVERNIGHT...WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO TEMPS BEGINNING TO MODERATE TODAY. H8 TEMPS STILL
SUPPORT INLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S TODAY SO WILL KEEP THE
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY.

PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR PUSHED IN WITH A STRONGER NW ONSHORE FLOW
MON AND TUE...BRINGING TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL BY TUE. AS THE
UPPER FLOW TURN MORE SW MON...AND EVENTUALLY WESTERLY TUE TO
CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BECOME LIMITED TO THE CASCADE CREST.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE GENERAL
TREND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER WEATHER. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRUSHING BY THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY...BUT KEEPS MOST OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR LATE
TUESDAY DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES RETURN
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE GO
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE USED A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH FOR
NEXT WEEKEND AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
OREGON CASCADES. /64

&&

.AVIATION...VFR INLAND THIS MORNING BUT WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
FROM CONVECTION OVER SW OREGON WILL DRIFT OVER THE REGION. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN/THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA 10Z-17Z BUT CHANCE APPEARS SMALL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
MENTION IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF. AT THE COAST...SHALLOW IFR STRATUS
WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND LIKELY DEVELOPS ALONG
THE NORTH COAST BY 11Z. THIS STRATUS WILL RETREAT OFFSHORE AROUND
18Z FOR VFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT DEVELOPING CUMULUS
SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPANDING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE COAST RANGE 03Z-10Z
TUE...BUT AGAIN INSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN ANY
PARTICULAR TAF AT THIS TIME.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOME
RESIDUAL MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OVER SW OREGON WILL DRIFT
OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. LIKELY SEE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM. CHANCES BEST S
AND E OF TERMINAL AND IN CASCADES...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ONE
IMPACTING THE TERMINAL DURING 04Z-10Z.   CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE ARE DRIFTING FROM S TO N
INTO THE OUTER CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
POTENTIAL THREATS ARE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...WITH THE
THREAT AREA EXPANDING TO COVER MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN IN THE EVENING HOURS.

OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR SUNDAY WITH
N WINDS OVER THE WATERS. AN OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS REVEALED WINDS
STILL AROUND 20 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS...SO WILL ALLOW THE
ADVISORY FOR WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 10 AM AS AREAS OF
MARGINALLY ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS MAY STILL EXIST. ANOTHER SCA
FOR WINDS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MORE WIDESPREAD
GUSTS TO 25 KT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP.

MEANWHILE...THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE MAINTAINING STEEP
SEAS OVER THE WATERS OF 6 TO 7 FEET AT 6 TO 8 SECONDS.
THEREFORE...WITH CONDITIONS FLUCTUATING ABOVE OR VERY NEAR OUR
CRITERIA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...THE ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
LOOKS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND
     METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER
     HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ
     COUNTY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
     WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 020528
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1028 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Expect a very hot weekend with afternoon temperatures in the mid
90s to near 105. The ongoing drought combined with high heat and
low humidity will raise concerns for wildfires the next several
days. A cold front will bring temperatures back closer to average
on Tuesday. Temperatures Wednesday through Friday will likely be
at or below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: Overall a quiet night in place with an upper ridge
persisting over the region. Main story is the area wildfires which
has contributed quite a smoke to several areas across Central and
Eastern Washington into North Idaho. The biggest
fire...Wolverine...near Lake Chelan has been putting up the
largest amount of smoke while other fires near Ione and earlier
near Sprague have also been a contributor. With the fires near
Lake Chelan and Ione still burning active as of 9 pm per evidence
from satellite and/or radar with an inversion setting in...there
will likely be quite a bit of smoke around the area tonight.
Forecast has been updated to increase coverage of smoke
tonight...as well as around the Moses Lake, Ephrata, and southern
Okanogan Valley areas for Sunday. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Smoke will continue to be the main aviation concern
through Sunday. The smoke will be most prevalent in portions of
central Washington near the Wolverine Fire. Lower level smoke
will increase around Chelan tonight, with the BlueSky model
keeping this smoke east of KEAT again...but impacting KMWH
overnight into Sunday morning. Confidence is not high concerning
timing of MVFR visibility as KMWH...so went with a compromise
between timing of BlueSky model and persistance. Some improvement
is expected Sunday afternoon at KMWH as surface winds switch from
N-NW to SW. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        63  97  70  94  67  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  96  63  94  64  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Pullman        56  97  62  92  60  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       66 103  72  98  69  95 /   0   0  10  10  20  10
Colville       56  99  62  95  62  89 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Sandpoint      50  95  58  91  60  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Kellogg        58  95  58  94  61  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Moses Lake     59  99  69  97  64  93 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee      68  98  76  96  70  91 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Omak           60 100  70  98  64  92 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA...     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 020528
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1028 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Expect a very hot weekend with afternoon temperatures in the mid
90s to near 105. The ongoing drought combined with high heat and
low humidity will raise concerns for wildfires the next several
days. A cold front will bring temperatures back closer to average
on Tuesday. Temperatures Wednesday through Friday will likely be
at or below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: Overall a quiet night in place with an upper ridge
persisting over the region. Main story is the area wildfires which
has contributed quite a smoke to several areas across Central and
Eastern Washington into North Idaho. The biggest
fire...Wolverine...near Lake Chelan has been putting up the
largest amount of smoke while other fires near Ione and earlier
near Sprague have also been a contributor. With the fires near
Lake Chelan and Ione still burning active as of 9 pm per evidence
from satellite and/or radar with an inversion setting in...there
will likely be quite a bit of smoke around the area tonight.
Forecast has been updated to increase coverage of smoke
tonight...as well as around the Moses Lake, Ephrata, and southern
Okanogan Valley areas for Sunday. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Smoke will continue to be the main aviation concern
through Sunday. The smoke will be most prevalent in portions of
central Washington near the Wolverine Fire. Lower level smoke
will increase around Chelan tonight, with the BlueSky model
keeping this smoke east of KEAT again...but impacting KMWH
overnight into Sunday morning. Confidence is not high concerning
timing of MVFR visibility as KMWH...so went with a compromise
between timing of BlueSky model and persistance. Some improvement
is expected Sunday afternoon at KMWH as surface winds switch from
N-NW to SW. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        63  97  70  94  67  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  96  63  94  64  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Pullman        56  97  62  92  60  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       66 103  72  98  69  95 /   0   0  10  10  20  10
Colville       56  99  62  95  62  89 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Sandpoint      50  95  58  91  60  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Kellogg        58  95  58  94  61  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Moses Lake     59  99  69  97  64  93 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee      68  98  76  96  70  91 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Omak           60 100  70  98  64  92 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA...     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 020422
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
922 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Expect a very hot weekend with afternoon temperatures in the mid
90s to near 105. The ongoing drought combined with high heat and
low humidity will raise concerns for wildfires the next several
days. A cold front will bring temperatures back closer to average
on Tuesday. Temperatures Wednesday through Friday will likely be
at or below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: Overall a quiet night in place with an upper ridge
persisting over the region. Main story is the area wildfires which
has contributed quite a smoke to several areas across Central and
Eastern Washington into North Idaho. The biggest
fire...Wolverine...near Lake Chelan has been putting up the
largest amount of smoke while other fires near Ione and earlier
near Sprague have also been a contributor. With the fires near
Lake Chelan and Ione still burning active as of 9 pm per evidence
from satellite and/or radar with an inversion setting in...there
will likely be quite a bit of smoke around the area tonight.
Forecast has been updated to increase coverage of smoke
tonight...as well as around the Moses Lake, Ephrata, and southern
Okanogan Valley areas for Sunday. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A large plume of elevated smoke will continue to track
towards Grand Coulee, Spokane, and Coeur D`Alene areas tonight
but prevailing surface visibilities should remain VFR...although a
fire near Sprague could track smoke up towards KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. As
the inversions sets in...lower level smoke will increase around
Chelan, with the BlueSky model keeping this smoke east of KEAT
again...but impacting KMWH overnight into Sunday morning.
Confidence is not high concerning timing of MVFR visibility as
KMWH...so went with a compromise between timing of BlueSky model
and persistance. Some improvement is expected Sunday afternoon at
KMWH as surface winds switch from N-NW to SW. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        63  97  70  94  67  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  96  63  94  64  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Pullman        56  97  62  92  60  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       66 103  72  98  69  95 /   0   0  10  10  20  10
Colville       56  99  62  95  62  89 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Sandpoint      50  95  58  91  60  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Kellogg        58  95  58  94  61  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Moses Lake     59  99  69  97  64  93 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee      68  98  76  96  70  91 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Omak           60 100  70  98  64  92 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA...     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 020422
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
922 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Expect a very hot weekend with afternoon temperatures in the mid
90s to near 105. The ongoing drought combined with high heat and
low humidity will raise concerns for wildfires the next several
days. A cold front will bring temperatures back closer to average
on Tuesday. Temperatures Wednesday through Friday will likely be
at or below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: Overall a quiet night in place with an upper ridge
persisting over the region. Main story is the area wildfires which
has contributed quite a smoke to several areas across Central and
Eastern Washington into North Idaho. The biggest
fire...Wolverine...near Lake Chelan has been putting up the
largest amount of smoke while other fires near Ione and earlier
near Sprague have also been a contributor. With the fires near
Lake Chelan and Ione still burning active as of 9 pm per evidence
from satellite and/or radar with an inversion setting in...there
will likely be quite a bit of smoke around the area tonight.
Forecast has been updated to increase coverage of smoke
tonight...as well as around the Moses Lake, Ephrata, and southern
Okanogan Valley areas for Sunday. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A large plume of elevated smoke will continue to track
towards Grand Coulee, Spokane, and Coeur D`Alene areas tonight
but prevailing surface visibilities should remain VFR...although a
fire near Sprague could track smoke up towards KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. As
the inversions sets in...lower level smoke will increase around
Chelan, with the BlueSky model keeping this smoke east of KEAT
again...but impacting KMWH overnight into Sunday morning.
Confidence is not high concerning timing of MVFR visibility as
KMWH...so went with a compromise between timing of BlueSky model
and persistance. Some improvement is expected Sunday afternoon at
KMWH as surface winds switch from N-NW to SW. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        63  97  70  94  67  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  96  63  94  64  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Pullman        56  97  62  92  60  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       66 103  72  98  69  95 /   0   0  10  10  20  10
Colville       56  99  62  95  62  89 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Sandpoint      50  95  58  91  60  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Kellogg        58  95  58  94  61  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Moses Lake     59  99  69  97  64  93 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee      68  98  76  96  70  91 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Omak           60 100  70  98  64  92 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA...     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 020358 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
831 PM PDT SAT AUG  1 2015

CORRECTION FOR HAZARD SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY MAINTAINING HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL STEER SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER WESTERN
OREGON INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
OREGON CASCADES...WITH SOME DEBRIS MOISTURE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
CASCADES LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR GRADUAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WE HAD ANOTHER TEMPERATURE RECORD BREAKING DAY TODAY
WITH FIVE CLIMATE LOCATIONS SETTING NEW DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS.

A LOW OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS HELPING TO STEER MONSOONAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN OREGON. THE LOW AND THE MOISTURE HAS
RESULTED IN QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE PORTLAND
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS
BRUSHED ALONG THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STORMS ARE WINDING DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
LANE COUNTY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT INLAND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF
ONSHORE WINDS. THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP STEER THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH FURTHER NORTHWARD OVER NW OREGON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW
OREGON SUNDAY.

THE INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. INTERIOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S RATHER THAN THE TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES OF LATE.
HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED TO REPLACE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE
INTERIOR LOW LANDS WITH A HEAT ADVISORY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A
DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO DROP THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE
COAST RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY
SOME MARINE CLOUDS REACHING PORTLAND AND EUGENE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO KEEP INLAND TEMPERATURES JUST AROUND 90. THUNDER AFTER MONDAY
MORNING WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER CASCADES AND IN THE
SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE MODELS INDICATE A BETTER MARINE INTRUSION INLAND ON TUESDAY
MORNING AND WENT WITH MORE MORNING CLOUDS IN THE NORTH VALLEY THEN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE NORTH VALLEY AND
MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY THUNDER
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES...BUT LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAKES THAT NOT CERTAIN EITHER. TJ/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE GENERAL
TREND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER WEATHER. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRUSHING BY THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY...BUT KEEPS MOST OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR LATE
TUESDAY DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES RETURN
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE GO
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE USED A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH FOR
NEXT WEEKEND AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
OREGON CASCADES. /64

&&

.AVIATION...VFR INLAND. AN AREA OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO STAY CLOSE
TO THE COASTLINE WITH POCKETS OF IFR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST. EXPECT STRATUS AND IFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO
NORTH COAST LATER TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS OVER SW OREGON/NOCAL WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
CUMULUS BUILD UPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE EUGENE AND
PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS SALEM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PRESSURE
PATTERN. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 25 KTS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN EASING MONDAY.

THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS IS PRODUCING CHOPPY SEAS OF 6 TO 7
FT WITH SHORT PERIODS MAKING IT ROUGH FOR BOATS VENTURING OUT FOR
RECREATION. TW

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 05Z FOR
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 5-6. MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER
THE NORTH ZONES...NORTH OF A LINE FROM AROUND BENTON COUNTY EAST TO
MT. JEFFERSON. MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FILTERING INTO THE SOUTH
ZONES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 4 VALUES...HELPING TO
REDUCE POTENTIAL COLUMN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. ONE OTHER NEAR-TERM
CONCERN IS LIGHTNING IN THE FAR SE PART OF THE AREA. AT 22Z A FEW
STRIKES NOTED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST NEAR WILLAMETTE PASS. FEEL ANY
CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ZONE 608 AND PERHAPS
THE EAST HALF OF ZONE 606. CONVECTIVE THREAT SPREADS NORTH AND WEST
SUNDAY AS SOUTH FLOW ALOFT FURTHER NORTH AND 500 MB RIDGE AXIS
GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTH AS WELL. HAVE SPREAD MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE S WA CASCADES SUN EVENING THROUGH MON MORNING. WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS FOR SUN...BUT FOR NOW FEEL LIKE
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG. ALSO...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER THE S HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY WILL TEND TO BECOME
WETTER DUE TO THE LONGER-DURATION MOIST SOUTH FLOW. CONVECTIVE
THREAT GETS PUSHED EAST OF THE CASCADES MON NIGHT AND TUE...WITH ANY
THREAT TUE NEAR THE CREST OF ZONE 608. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST RANGE-MT.HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE CREST-NORTH
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE-
     WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST-WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-
     LOWER COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER
     VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK COUNTY
     LOWLANDS-EAST WILLAPA HILLS-EXTREME SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WATERS

     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 020358 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
831 PM PDT SAT AUG  1 2015

CORRECTION FOR HAZARD SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY MAINTAINING HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL STEER SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER WESTERN
OREGON INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
OREGON CASCADES...WITH SOME DEBRIS MOISTURE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
CASCADES LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR GRADUAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WE HAD ANOTHER TEMPERATURE RECORD BREAKING DAY TODAY
WITH FIVE CLIMATE LOCATIONS SETTING NEW DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS.

A LOW OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS HELPING TO STEER MONSOONAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN OREGON. THE LOW AND THE MOISTURE HAS
RESULTED IN QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE PORTLAND
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS
BRUSHED ALONG THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STORMS ARE WINDING DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
LANE COUNTY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT INLAND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF
ONSHORE WINDS. THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP STEER THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH FURTHER NORTHWARD OVER NW OREGON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW
OREGON SUNDAY.

THE INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. INTERIOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S RATHER THAN THE TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES OF LATE.
HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED TO REPLACE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE
INTERIOR LOW LANDS WITH A HEAT ADVISORY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A
DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO DROP THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE
COAST RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY
SOME MARINE CLOUDS REACHING PORTLAND AND EUGENE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO KEEP INLAND TEMPERATURES JUST AROUND 90. THUNDER AFTER MONDAY
MORNING WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER CASCADES AND IN THE
SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE MODELS INDICATE A BETTER MARINE INTRUSION INLAND ON TUESDAY
MORNING AND WENT WITH MORE MORNING CLOUDS IN THE NORTH VALLEY THEN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE NORTH VALLEY AND
MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY THUNDER
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES...BUT LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAKES THAT NOT CERTAIN EITHER. TJ/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE GENERAL
TREND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER WEATHER. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRUSHING BY THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY...BUT KEEPS MOST OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR LATE
TUESDAY DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES RETURN
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE GO
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE USED A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH FOR
NEXT WEEKEND AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
OREGON CASCADES. /64

&&

.AVIATION...VFR INLAND. AN AREA OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO STAY CLOSE
TO THE COASTLINE WITH POCKETS OF IFR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST. EXPECT STRATUS AND IFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO
NORTH COAST LATER TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS OVER SW OREGON/NOCAL WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
CUMULUS BUILD UPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE EUGENE AND
PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS SALEM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PRESSURE
PATTERN. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 25 KTS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN EASING MONDAY.

THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS IS PRODUCING CHOPPY SEAS OF 6 TO 7
FT WITH SHORT PERIODS MAKING IT ROUGH FOR BOATS VENTURING OUT FOR
RECREATION. TW

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 05Z FOR
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 5-6. MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER
THE NORTH ZONES...NORTH OF A LINE FROM AROUND BENTON COUNTY EAST TO
MT. JEFFERSON. MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FILTERING INTO THE SOUTH
ZONES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 4 VALUES...HELPING TO
REDUCE POTENTIAL COLUMN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. ONE OTHER NEAR-TERM
CONCERN IS LIGHTNING IN THE FAR SE PART OF THE AREA. AT 22Z A FEW
STRIKES NOTED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST NEAR WILLAMETTE PASS. FEEL ANY
CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ZONE 608 AND PERHAPS
THE EAST HALF OF ZONE 606. CONVECTIVE THREAT SPREADS NORTH AND WEST
SUNDAY AS SOUTH FLOW ALOFT FURTHER NORTH AND 500 MB RIDGE AXIS
GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTH AS WELL. HAVE SPREAD MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE S WA CASCADES SUN EVENING THROUGH MON MORNING. WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS FOR SUN...BUT FOR NOW FEEL LIKE
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG. ALSO...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER THE S HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY WILL TEND TO BECOME
WETTER DUE TO THE LONGER-DURATION MOIST SOUTH FLOW. CONVECTIVE
THREAT GETS PUSHED EAST OF THE CASCADES MON NIGHT AND TUE...WITH ANY
THREAT TUE NEAR THE CREST OF ZONE 608. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST RANGE-MT.HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE CREST-NORTH
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE-
     WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST-WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-
     LOWER COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER
     VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK COUNTY
     LOWLANDS-EAST WILLAPA HILLS-EXTREME SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WATERS

     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 020358 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
831 PM PDT SAT AUG  1 2015

CORRECTION FOR HAZARD SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY MAINTAINING HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL STEER SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER WESTERN
OREGON INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
OREGON CASCADES...WITH SOME DEBRIS MOISTURE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
CASCADES LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR GRADUAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WE HAD ANOTHER TEMPERATURE RECORD BREAKING DAY TODAY
WITH FIVE CLIMATE LOCATIONS SETTING NEW DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS.

A LOW OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS HELPING TO STEER MONSOONAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN OREGON. THE LOW AND THE MOISTURE HAS
RESULTED IN QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE PORTLAND
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS
BRUSHED ALONG THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STORMS ARE WINDING DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
LANE COUNTY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT INLAND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF
ONSHORE WINDS. THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP STEER THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH FURTHER NORTHWARD OVER NW OREGON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW
OREGON SUNDAY.

THE INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. INTERIOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S RATHER THAN THE TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES OF LATE.
HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED TO REPLACE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE
INTERIOR LOW LANDS WITH A HEAT ADVISORY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A
DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO DROP THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE
COAST RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY
SOME MARINE CLOUDS REACHING PORTLAND AND EUGENE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO KEEP INLAND TEMPERATURES JUST AROUND 90. THUNDER AFTER MONDAY
MORNING WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER CASCADES AND IN THE
SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE MODELS INDICATE A BETTER MARINE INTRUSION INLAND ON TUESDAY
MORNING AND WENT WITH MORE MORNING CLOUDS IN THE NORTH VALLEY THEN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE NORTH VALLEY AND
MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY THUNDER
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES...BUT LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAKES THAT NOT CERTAIN EITHER. TJ/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE GENERAL
TREND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER WEATHER. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRUSHING BY THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY...BUT KEEPS MOST OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR LATE
TUESDAY DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES RETURN
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE GO
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE USED A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH FOR
NEXT WEEKEND AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
OREGON CASCADES. /64

&&

.AVIATION...VFR INLAND. AN AREA OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO STAY CLOSE
TO THE COASTLINE WITH POCKETS OF IFR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST. EXPECT STRATUS AND IFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO
NORTH COAST LATER TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS OVER SW OREGON/NOCAL WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
CUMULUS BUILD UPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE EUGENE AND
PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS SALEM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PRESSURE
PATTERN. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 25 KTS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN EASING MONDAY.

THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS IS PRODUCING CHOPPY SEAS OF 6 TO 7
FT WITH SHORT PERIODS MAKING IT ROUGH FOR BOATS VENTURING OUT FOR
RECREATION. TW

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 05Z FOR
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 5-6. MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER
THE NORTH ZONES...NORTH OF A LINE FROM AROUND BENTON COUNTY EAST TO
MT. JEFFERSON. MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FILTERING INTO THE SOUTH
ZONES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 4 VALUES...HELPING TO
REDUCE POTENTIAL COLUMN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. ONE OTHER NEAR-TERM
CONCERN IS LIGHTNING IN THE FAR SE PART OF THE AREA. AT 22Z A FEW
STRIKES NOTED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST NEAR WILLAMETTE PASS. FEEL ANY
CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ZONE 608 AND PERHAPS
THE EAST HALF OF ZONE 606. CONVECTIVE THREAT SPREADS NORTH AND WEST
SUNDAY AS SOUTH FLOW ALOFT FURTHER NORTH AND 500 MB RIDGE AXIS
GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTH AS WELL. HAVE SPREAD MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE S WA CASCADES SUN EVENING THROUGH MON MORNING. WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS FOR SUN...BUT FOR NOW FEEL LIKE
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG. ALSO...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER THE S HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY WILL TEND TO BECOME
WETTER DUE TO THE LONGER-DURATION MOIST SOUTH FLOW. CONVECTIVE
THREAT GETS PUSHED EAST OF THE CASCADES MON NIGHT AND TUE...WITH ANY
THREAT TUE NEAR THE CREST OF ZONE 608. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST RANGE-MT.HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE CREST-NORTH
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE-
     WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST-WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-
     LOWER COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER
     VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK COUNTY
     LOWLANDS-EAST WILLAPA HILLS-EXTREME SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WATERS

     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 020331
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
831 PM PDT SAT AUG  1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY MAINTAINING HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL STEER SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER WESTERN
OREGON INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
OREGON CASCADES...WITH SOME DEBRIS MOISTURE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
CASCADES LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR GRADUAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WE HAD ANOTHER TEMPERATURE RECORD BREAKING DAY TODAY
WITH FIVE CLIMATE LOCATIONS SETTING NEW DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS.

A LOW OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS HELPING TO STEER MONSOONAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN OREGON. THE LOW AND THE MOISTURE HAS
RESULTED IN QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE PORTLAND
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS
BRUSHED ALONG THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STORMS ARE WINDING DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
LANE COUNTY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT INLAND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF
ONSHORE WINDS. THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP STEER THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH FURTHER NORTHWARD OVER NW OREGON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW
OREGON SUNDAY.

THE INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. INTERIOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S RATHER THAN THE TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES OF LATE.
HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED TO REPLACE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE
INTERIOR LOW LANDS WITH A HEAT ADVISORY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A
DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO DROP THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE
COAST RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY
SOME MARINE CLOUDS REACHING PORTLAND AND EUGENE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO KEEP INLAND TEMPERATURES JUST AROUND 90. THUNDER AFTER MONDAY
MORNING WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER CASCADES AND IN THE
SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE MODELS INDICATE A BETTER MARINE INTRUSION INLAND ON TUESDAY
MORNING AND WENT WITH MORE MORNING CLOUDS IN THE NORTH VALLEY THEN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE NORTH VALLEY AND
MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY THUNDER
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES...BUT LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAKES THAT NOT CERTAIN EITHER. TJ/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE GENERAL
TREND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER WEATHER. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRUSHING BY THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY...BUT KEEPS MOST OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR LATE
TUESDAY DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES RETURN
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE GO
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE USED A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH FOR
NEXT WEEKEND AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
OREGON CASCADES. /64

&&

.AVIATION...VFR INLAND. AN AREA OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO STAY CLOSE
TO THE COASTLINE WITH POCKETS OF IFR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST. EXPECT STRATUS AND IFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO
NORTH COAST LATER TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS OVER SW OREGON/NOCAL WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
CUMULUS BUILD UPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE EUGENE AND
PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS SALEM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PRESSURE
PATTERN. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 25 KTS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN EASING MONDAY.

THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS IS PRODUCING CHOPPY SEAS OF 6 TO 7
FT WITH SHORT PERIODS MAKING IT ROUGH FOR BOATS VENTURING OUT FOR
RECREATION. TW

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 05Z FOR
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 5-6. MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER
THE NORTH ZONES...NORTH OF A LINE FROM AROUND BENTON COUNTY EAST TO
MT. JEFFERSON. MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FILTERING INTO THE SOUTH
ZONES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 4 VALUES...HELPING TO
REDUCE POTENTIAL COLUMN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. ONE OTHER NEAR-TERM
CONCERN IS LIGHTNING IN THE FAR SE PART OF THE AREA. AT 22Z A FEW
STRIKES NOTED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST NEAR WILLAMETTE PASS. FEEL ANY
CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ZONE 608 AND PERHAPS
THE EAST HALF OF ZONE 606. CONVECTIVE THREAT SPREADS NORTH AND WEST
SUNDAY AS SOUTH FLOW ALOFT FURTHER NORTH AND 500 MB RIDGE AXIS
GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTH AS WELL. HAVE SPREAD MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE S WA CASCADES SUN EVENING THROUGH MON MORNING. WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS FOR SUN...BUT FOR NOW FEEL LIKE
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG. ALSO...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER THE S HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY WILL TEND TO BECOME
WETTER DUE TO THE LONGER-DURATION MOIST SOUTH FLOW. CONVECTIVE
THREAT GETS PUSHED EAST OF THE CASCADES MON NIGHT AND TUE...WITH ANY
THREAT TUE NEAR THE CREST OF ZONE 608. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST RANGE-MT.HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE CREST-NORTH
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE-
     WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST-WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-
     LOWER COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER
     VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK COUNTY
     LOWLANDS-EAST WILLAPA HILLS-EXTREME SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WATERS

     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 020331
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
831 PM PDT SAT AUG  1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY MAINTAINING HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL STEER SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER WESTERN
OREGON INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
OREGON CASCADES...WITH SOME DEBRIS MOISTURE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
CASCADES LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR GRADUAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WE HAD ANOTHER TEMPERATURE RECORD BREAKING DAY TODAY
WITH FIVE CLIMATE LOCATIONS SETTING NEW DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS.

A LOW OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS HELPING TO STEER MONSOONAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN OREGON. THE LOW AND THE MOISTURE HAS
RESULTED IN QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE PORTLAND
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS
BRUSHED ALONG THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STORMS ARE WINDING DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
LANE COUNTY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT INLAND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF
ONSHORE WINDS. THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP STEER THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH FURTHER NORTHWARD OVER NW OREGON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW
OREGON SUNDAY.

THE INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. INTERIOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S RATHER THAN THE TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES OF LATE.
HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED TO REPLACE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE
INTERIOR LOW LANDS WITH A HEAT ADVISORY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A
DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO DROP THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE
COAST RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY
SOME MARINE CLOUDS REACHING PORTLAND AND EUGENE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO KEEP INLAND TEMPERATURES JUST AROUND 90. THUNDER AFTER MONDAY
MORNING WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER CASCADES AND IN THE
SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE MODELS INDICATE A BETTER MARINE INTRUSION INLAND ON TUESDAY
MORNING AND WENT WITH MORE MORNING CLOUDS IN THE NORTH VALLEY THEN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE NORTH VALLEY AND
MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY THUNDER
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES...BUT LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAKES THAT NOT CERTAIN EITHER. TJ/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE GENERAL
TREND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER WEATHER. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRUSHING BY THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY...BUT KEEPS MOST OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR LATE
TUESDAY DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES RETURN
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE GO
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE USED A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH FOR
NEXT WEEKEND AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
OREGON CASCADES. /64

&&

.AVIATION...VFR INLAND. AN AREA OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO STAY CLOSE
TO THE COASTLINE WITH POCKETS OF IFR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST. EXPECT STRATUS AND IFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO
NORTH COAST LATER TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS OVER SW OREGON/NOCAL WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
CUMULUS BUILD UPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE EUGENE AND
PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS SALEM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PRESSURE
PATTERN. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 25 KTS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN EASING MONDAY.

THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS IS PRODUCING CHOPPY SEAS OF 6 TO 7
FT WITH SHORT PERIODS MAKING IT ROUGH FOR BOATS VENTURING OUT FOR
RECREATION. TW

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 05Z FOR
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 5-6. MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER
THE NORTH ZONES...NORTH OF A LINE FROM AROUND BENTON COUNTY EAST TO
MT. JEFFERSON. MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FILTERING INTO THE SOUTH
ZONES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 4 VALUES...HELPING TO
REDUCE POTENTIAL COLUMN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. ONE OTHER NEAR-TERM
CONCERN IS LIGHTNING IN THE FAR SE PART OF THE AREA. AT 22Z A FEW
STRIKES NOTED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST NEAR WILLAMETTE PASS. FEEL ANY
CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ZONE 608 AND PERHAPS
THE EAST HALF OF ZONE 606. CONVECTIVE THREAT SPREADS NORTH AND WEST
SUNDAY AS SOUTH FLOW ALOFT FURTHER NORTH AND 500 MB RIDGE AXIS
GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTH AS WELL. HAVE SPREAD MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE S WA CASCADES SUN EVENING THROUGH MON MORNING. WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS FOR SUN...BUT FOR NOW FEEL LIKE
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG. ALSO...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER THE S HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY WILL TEND TO BECOME
WETTER DUE TO THE LONGER-DURATION MOIST SOUTH FLOW. CONVECTIVE
THREAT GETS PUSHED EAST OF THE CASCADES MON NIGHT AND TUE...WITH ANY
THREAT TUE NEAR THE CREST OF ZONE 608. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST RANGE-MT.HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE CREST-NORTH
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE-
     WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST-WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-
     LOWER COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER
     VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK COUNTY
     LOWLANDS-EAST WILLAPA HILLS-EXTREME SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WATERS

     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 020331
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
831 PM PDT SAT AUG  1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY MAINTAINING HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL STEER SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER WESTERN
OREGON INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
OREGON CASCADES...WITH SOME DEBRIS MOISTURE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
CASCADES LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR GRADUAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WE HAD ANOTHER TEMPERATURE RECORD BREAKING DAY TODAY
WITH FIVE CLIMATE LOCATIONS SETTING NEW DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS.

A LOW OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS HELPING TO STEER MONSOONAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN OREGON. THE LOW AND THE MOISTURE HAS
RESULTED IN QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE PORTLAND
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS
BRUSHED ALONG THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STORMS ARE WINDING DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
LANE COUNTY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT INLAND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF
ONSHORE WINDS. THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP STEER THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH FURTHER NORTHWARD OVER NW OREGON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW
OREGON SUNDAY.

THE INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. INTERIOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S RATHER THAN THE TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES OF LATE.
HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED TO REPLACE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE
INTERIOR LOW LANDS WITH A HEAT ADVISORY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A
DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO DROP THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE
COAST RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY
SOME MARINE CLOUDS REACHING PORTLAND AND EUGENE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO KEEP INLAND TEMPERATURES JUST AROUND 90. THUNDER AFTER MONDAY
MORNING WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER CASCADES AND IN THE
SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE MODELS INDICATE A BETTER MARINE INTRUSION INLAND ON TUESDAY
MORNING AND WENT WITH MORE MORNING CLOUDS IN THE NORTH VALLEY THEN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE NORTH VALLEY AND
MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY THUNDER
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES...BUT LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAKES THAT NOT CERTAIN EITHER. TJ/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE GENERAL
TREND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER WEATHER. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRUSHING BY THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY...BUT KEEPS MOST OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR LATE
TUESDAY DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES RETURN
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE GO
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE USED A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH FOR
NEXT WEEKEND AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
OREGON CASCADES. /64

&&

.AVIATION...VFR INLAND. AN AREA OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO STAY CLOSE
TO THE COASTLINE WITH POCKETS OF IFR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST. EXPECT STRATUS AND IFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO
NORTH COAST LATER TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS OVER SW OREGON/NOCAL WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
CUMULUS BUILD UPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE EUGENE AND
PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS SALEM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PRESSURE
PATTERN. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 25 KTS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN EASING MONDAY.

THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS IS PRODUCING CHOPPY SEAS OF 6 TO 7
FT WITH SHORT PERIODS MAKING IT ROUGH FOR BOATS VENTURING OUT FOR
RECREATION. TW

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 05Z FOR
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 5-6. MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER
THE NORTH ZONES...NORTH OF A LINE FROM AROUND BENTON COUNTY EAST TO
MT. JEFFERSON. MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FILTERING INTO THE SOUTH
ZONES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 4 VALUES...HELPING TO
REDUCE POTENTIAL COLUMN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. ONE OTHER NEAR-TERM
CONCERN IS LIGHTNING IN THE FAR SE PART OF THE AREA. AT 22Z A FEW
STRIKES NOTED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST NEAR WILLAMETTE PASS. FEEL ANY
CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ZONE 608 AND PERHAPS
THE EAST HALF OF ZONE 606. CONVECTIVE THREAT SPREADS NORTH AND WEST
SUNDAY AS SOUTH FLOW ALOFT FURTHER NORTH AND 500 MB RIDGE AXIS
GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTH AS WELL. HAVE SPREAD MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE S WA CASCADES SUN EVENING THROUGH MON MORNING. WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS FOR SUN...BUT FOR NOW FEEL LIKE
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG. ALSO...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER THE S HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY WILL TEND TO BECOME
WETTER DUE TO THE LONGER-DURATION MOIST SOUTH FLOW. CONVECTIVE
THREAT GETS PUSHED EAST OF THE CASCADES MON NIGHT AND TUE...WITH ANY
THREAT TUE NEAR THE CREST OF ZONE 608. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST RANGE-MT.HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE CREST-NORTH
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE-
     WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST-WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-
     LOWER COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER
     VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK COUNTY
     LOWLANDS-EAST WILLAPA HILLS-EXTREME SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WATERS

     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 020331
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
831 PM PDT SAT AUG  1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY MAINTAINING HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL STEER SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER WESTERN
OREGON INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
OREGON CASCADES...WITH SOME DEBRIS MOISTURE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
CASCADES LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR GRADUAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WE HAD ANOTHER TEMPERATURE RECORD BREAKING DAY TODAY
WITH FIVE CLIMATE LOCATIONS SETTING NEW DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS.

A LOW OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS HELPING TO STEER MONSOONAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN OREGON. THE LOW AND THE MOISTURE HAS
RESULTED IN QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE PORTLAND
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS
BRUSHED ALONG THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STORMS ARE WINDING DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
LANE COUNTY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT INLAND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF
ONSHORE WINDS. THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP STEER THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH FURTHER NORTHWARD OVER NW OREGON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW
OREGON SUNDAY.

THE INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. INTERIOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S RATHER THAN THE TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES OF LATE.
HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED TO REPLACE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE
INTERIOR LOW LANDS WITH A HEAT ADVISORY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A
DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO DROP THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE
COAST RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY
SOME MARINE CLOUDS REACHING PORTLAND AND EUGENE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO KEEP INLAND TEMPERATURES JUST AROUND 90. THUNDER AFTER MONDAY
MORNING WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER CASCADES AND IN THE
SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE MODELS INDICATE A BETTER MARINE INTRUSION INLAND ON TUESDAY
MORNING AND WENT WITH MORE MORNING CLOUDS IN THE NORTH VALLEY THEN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE NORTH VALLEY AND
MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY THUNDER
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES...BUT LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAKES THAT NOT CERTAIN EITHER. TJ/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE GENERAL
TREND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS COOLER WEATHER. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRUSHING BY THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY...BUT KEEPS MOST OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR LATE
TUESDAY DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES RETURN
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE GO
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE USED A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH FOR
NEXT WEEKEND AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
OREGON CASCADES. /64

&&

.AVIATION...VFR INLAND. AN AREA OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO STAY CLOSE
TO THE COASTLINE WITH POCKETS OF IFR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST. EXPECT STRATUS AND IFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO
NORTH COAST LATER TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS OVER SW OREGON/NOCAL WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
CUMULUS BUILD UPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE EUGENE AND
PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS SALEM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PRESSURE
PATTERN. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 25 KTS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN EASING MONDAY.

THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS IS PRODUCING CHOPPY SEAS OF 6 TO 7
FT WITH SHORT PERIODS MAKING IT ROUGH FOR BOATS VENTURING OUT FOR
RECREATION. TW

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 05Z FOR
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 5-6. MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER
THE NORTH ZONES...NORTH OF A LINE FROM AROUND BENTON COUNTY EAST TO
MT. JEFFERSON. MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FILTERING INTO THE SOUTH
ZONES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 4 VALUES...HELPING TO
REDUCE POTENTIAL COLUMN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. ONE OTHER NEAR-TERM
CONCERN IS LIGHTNING IN THE FAR SE PART OF THE AREA. AT 22Z A FEW
STRIKES NOTED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST NEAR WILLAMETTE PASS. FEEL ANY
CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ZONE 608 AND PERHAPS
THE EAST HALF OF ZONE 606. CONVECTIVE THREAT SPREADS NORTH AND WEST
SUNDAY AS SOUTH FLOW ALOFT FURTHER NORTH AND 500 MB RIDGE AXIS
GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTH AS WELL. HAVE SPREAD MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE S WA CASCADES SUN EVENING THROUGH MON MORNING. WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS FOR SUN...BUT FOR NOW FEEL LIKE
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG. ALSO...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER THE S HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY WILL TEND TO BECOME
WETTER DUE TO THE LONGER-DURATION MOIST SOUTH FLOW. CONVECTIVE
THREAT GETS PUSHED EAST OF THE CASCADES MON NIGHT AND TUE...WITH ANY
THREAT TUE NEAR THE CREST OF ZONE 608. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST RANGE-MT.HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE CREST-NORTH
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE-
     WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST-WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-
     LOWER COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER
     VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK COUNTY
     LOWLANDS-EAST WILLAPA HILLS-EXTREME SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WATERS

     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 020317
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
817 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR COOLER
WEATHER. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS LATER IN THE WEEK

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE
SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING.
IN GENERAL...THE WEATHER WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY...SUNNY
AND VERY WARM. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY COOL SLIGHTLY BUT
INLAND AREAS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH RECORD HIGHS AGAIN. A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY FROM SEATTLE SOUTH.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO
NEAR THE COAST MONDAY MORNING BUT HIGHS WILL COOL OVER THE
INTERIOR BY SEVERAL DEGREES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER NEAR THE CASCADE CREST AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
INCREASE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THERE
SHOULD BE MORNING CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE FOR THE
INTERIOR AND HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER TROUGH IN BRITISH
COLUMBIA CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MAINLY IT IS A MATTER OF
DEPRESSING THE HEIGHTS AND GIVING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS. HAVE KEPT THE LOWLANDS DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS PAST BY FRIDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE ACTUALLY
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WHOLE AREA INCLUDING THE
MOUNTAINS DRY...WITH SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND. BURKE


&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WEST FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT WILL
BECOME SW ON SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE STABLE AND DRY...EXCEPT
FOR SHALLOW MARINE MOISTURE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

MARINE STRATUS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER
THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING LOCAL IFR
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS W WA.

KSEA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR GOOD VFR
CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH 5-10 KT THIS EVENING
BECOMING NE 3-7 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. KAM

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES WILL RESULT IN STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TWO INNER COASTAL WATERS ZONES. HIGH END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WESTERLIES ARE LIKELY IN THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND GALES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. GALE FORCE WESTERLIES ARE A GOOD BET
THERE MONDAY NIGHT. MCDONNAL/KAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH
HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE VERY DRY AIR MASS IN RECENT DAYS WILL
START TO LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE AREA ON SUNDAY. IN FACT...AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND EXIT EAST TO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AIR
MASS TO MOISTEN JUST ENOUGH TO LET THE RED FLAG WARNINGS EXPIRE
THIS EVENING. ONCE THE RED FLAG WARNING DOES EXPIRE LATE THIS
EVENING...IT JUST MEANS THAT WEATHER WILL BE LESS OF AN
AGGRAVATING FACTOR IN THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT. BACKGROUND FIRE DANGER
WILL STILL BE ELEVATED DUE TO DRY FUELS.

THE NEW WRINKLE IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST IS THE INTRODUCTION OF
ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING TO THE CASCADES FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL
EARLY MONDAY EVENING. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST...SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AND BRING NORTH THE NEEDED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. TODAY`S MODELS CAME AROUND TO SHOWING THE CASCADES AT
THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF A LARGER-SCALE LIGHTNING RISK AREA. THE FIRST
THREAT OVER THE CASCADES WILL BE FROM HIGH-BASED NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION THAT COULD BRING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING TO THE CASCADES
FROM MOUNT RAINIER ON SOUTH IN THE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY.
THE LIGHTNING THREAT WILL REACH THE NORTH CASCADES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN END ON MONDAY EVENING. A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND
THE STEADY FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS IS A RECIPE FOR SUB-
WETTING RAINS WITH ANY STORMS. HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR BELLEVUE AND VICINITY-
     EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-SEATTLE AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST
     INTERIOR-TACOMA AREA.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     CASCADES-EAST PORTION OF THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS-NORTH
     CASCADES-WEST PORTION OF THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT
     10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL U.S.
     WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 020317
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
817 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR COOLER
WEATHER. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS LATER IN THE WEEK

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE
SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING.
IN GENERAL...THE WEATHER WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY...SUNNY
AND VERY WARM. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY COOL SLIGHTLY BUT
INLAND AREAS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH RECORD HIGHS AGAIN. A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY FROM SEATTLE SOUTH.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO
NEAR THE COAST MONDAY MORNING BUT HIGHS WILL COOL OVER THE
INTERIOR BY SEVERAL DEGREES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER NEAR THE CASCADE CREST AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
INCREASE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THERE
SHOULD BE MORNING CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE FOR THE
INTERIOR AND HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER TROUGH IN BRITISH
COLUMBIA CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MAINLY IT IS A MATTER OF
DEPRESSING THE HEIGHTS AND GIVING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS. HAVE KEPT THE LOWLANDS DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS PAST BY FRIDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE ACTUALLY
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WHOLE AREA INCLUDING THE
MOUNTAINS DRY...WITH SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND. BURKE


&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WEST FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT WILL
BECOME SW ON SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE STABLE AND DRY...EXCEPT
FOR SHALLOW MARINE MOISTURE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

MARINE STRATUS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER
THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING LOCAL IFR
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS W WA.

KSEA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR GOOD VFR
CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH 5-10 KT THIS EVENING
BECOMING NE 3-7 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. KAM

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES WILL RESULT IN STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TWO INNER COASTAL WATERS ZONES. HIGH END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WESTERLIES ARE LIKELY IN THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND GALES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. GALE FORCE WESTERLIES ARE A GOOD BET
THERE MONDAY NIGHT. MCDONNAL/KAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH
HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE VERY DRY AIR MASS IN RECENT DAYS WILL
START TO LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE AREA ON SUNDAY. IN FACT...AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND EXIT EAST TO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AIR
MASS TO MOISTEN JUST ENOUGH TO LET THE RED FLAG WARNINGS EXPIRE
THIS EVENING. ONCE THE RED FLAG WARNING DOES EXPIRE LATE THIS
EVENING...IT JUST MEANS THAT WEATHER WILL BE LESS OF AN
AGGRAVATING FACTOR IN THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT. BACKGROUND FIRE DANGER
WILL STILL BE ELEVATED DUE TO DRY FUELS.

THE NEW WRINKLE IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST IS THE INTRODUCTION OF
ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING TO THE CASCADES FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL
EARLY MONDAY EVENING. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST...SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AND BRING NORTH THE NEEDED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. TODAY`S MODELS CAME AROUND TO SHOWING THE CASCADES AT
THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF A LARGER-SCALE LIGHTNING RISK AREA. THE FIRST
THREAT OVER THE CASCADES WILL BE FROM HIGH-BASED NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION THAT COULD BRING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING TO THE CASCADES
FROM MOUNT RAINIER ON SOUTH IN THE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY.
THE LIGHTNING THREAT WILL REACH THE NORTH CASCADES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN END ON MONDAY EVENING. A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND
THE STEADY FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS IS A RECIPE FOR SUB-
WETTING RAINS WITH ANY STORMS. HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR BELLEVUE AND VICINITY-
     EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-SEATTLE AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST
     INTERIOR-TACOMA AREA.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     CASCADES-EAST PORTION OF THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS-NORTH
     CASCADES-WEST PORTION OF THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT
     10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL U.S.
     WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KOTX 020028
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
528 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Expect a very hot weekend with afternoon temperatures in the mid
90s to near 105. The ongoing drought combined with high heat and
low humidity will raise concerns for wildfires the next several
days. A cold front will bring temperatures back closer to average
on Tuesday. Temperatures Wednesday through Friday will likely be
at or below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday: No changes to the fcst outside of increasing
the areal coverage of smoke near the Cascades. Visibilities will
likely remain obscured to less than one mile for certainly the
immediate Lake Chelan area from the Wolverine fire. Low temps were
warmed a bit also in these smoke-filled valleys based on low temps
this morning.bz

Sunday night through Wednesday: Models are back in pretty good
agreement of the large scale synoptic pattern through the first
part of the work week. They are showing a wave move up from the
south Sunday night through Monday. With this wave will be an
increase in moisture and some very weak instability. Have added
some sprinkles and thunderstorms to the forecast. Expect the area
of sprinkles and thunderstorms to move up into the central
Cascades early Monday morning and then spread north and east
through the day and out of the area by Tuesday morning. With the
additional cloud cover Sunday night and Monday night have
increased temperatures several degrees to about 6-10 degrees above
average for this time of the year. Tuesday and Wednesday we
transition into a more west or northwesterly flow as an upper
level low pressure system moves into central British Columbia. The
track of this low is indicative of breezy winds in the Cascades,
Columbia Basin and into the Palouse and Spokane/CDA areas (about
10-20 mph). The best chance of showers or thunderstorms will
reside across the mountains. Daytime Temperatures will finally
drop to around average for Tuesday and maybe even below average
for Wednesday. /Nisbet

Wednesday night through Saturday: Expect relatively cool
temperatures and a few opportunities for showers mainly around
the mountains. Model agreement regarding the precise evolution of
the pattern degrades with a lack of solid consistency. Loose
agreement suggests an upper trough will continue to migrate across
the Pacific NW early this period. This is followed by brief
shortwave ridging before another trough approaches. Additionally
the low spinning off the CA coast moves inland and potentially by
southeast WA and southern ID late next week. In short,
shower/t-storm chances will linger around the Cascades and
northern mountains Thursday and return here and toward the Blues
through central Panhandle Saturday with approach of the next
trough from the west and possible wave approaching from the south.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal early this
period, warming back closer to an above normal by late in the
period. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A large plume of elevated smoke will continue to track
towards Grand Coulee, Spokane, and Coeur D`Alene areas tonight
but prevailing surface visibilities should remain VFR...although a
fire near Sprague could track smoke up towards KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. As
the inversions sets in...lower level smoke will increase around
Chelan, with the BlueSky model keeping this smoke east of KEAT
again...but impacting KMWH overnight into Sunday morning.
Confidence is not high concerning timing of MVFR visibility as
KMWH...so went with a compromise between timing of BlueSky model
and persistance. Some improvement is expected Sunday afternoon at
KMWH as surface winds switch from N-NW to SW. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        63  97  70  94  67  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  96  63  94  64  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Pullman        56  97  62  92  60  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       66 103  72  98  69  95 /   0   0  10  10  20  10
Colville       56  99  62  95  62  89 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Sandpoint      50  95  58  91  60  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Kellogg        58  95  58  94  61  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Moses Lake     59  99  69  97  64  93 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee      68  98  76  96  70  91 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Omak           60 100  70  98  64  92 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
Asotin Counties.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 020028
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
528 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Expect a very hot weekend with afternoon temperatures in the mid
90s to near 105. The ongoing drought combined with high heat and
low humidity will raise concerns for wildfires the next several
days. A cold front will bring temperatures back closer to average
on Tuesday. Temperatures Wednesday through Friday will likely be
at or below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday: No changes to the fcst outside of increasing
the areal coverage of smoke near the Cascades. Visibilities will
likely remain obscured to less than one mile for certainly the
immediate Lake Chelan area from the Wolverine fire. Low temps were
warmed a bit also in these smoke-filled valleys based on low temps
this morning.bz

Sunday night through Wednesday: Models are back in pretty good
agreement of the large scale synoptic pattern through the first
part of the work week. They are showing a wave move up from the
south Sunday night through Monday. With this wave will be an
increase in moisture and some very weak instability. Have added
some sprinkles and thunderstorms to the forecast. Expect the area
of sprinkles and thunderstorms to move up into the central
Cascades early Monday morning and then spread north and east
through the day and out of the area by Tuesday morning. With the
additional cloud cover Sunday night and Monday night have
increased temperatures several degrees to about 6-10 degrees above
average for this time of the year. Tuesday and Wednesday we
transition into a more west or northwesterly flow as an upper
level low pressure system moves into central British Columbia. The
track of this low is indicative of breezy winds in the Cascades,
Columbia Basin and into the Palouse and Spokane/CDA areas (about
10-20 mph). The best chance of showers or thunderstorms will
reside across the mountains. Daytime Temperatures will finally
drop to around average for Tuesday and maybe even below average
for Wednesday. /Nisbet

Wednesday night through Saturday: Expect relatively cool
temperatures and a few opportunities for showers mainly around
the mountains. Model agreement regarding the precise evolution of
the pattern degrades with a lack of solid consistency. Loose
agreement suggests an upper trough will continue to migrate across
the Pacific NW early this period. This is followed by brief
shortwave ridging before another trough approaches. Additionally
the low spinning off the CA coast moves inland and potentially by
southeast WA and southern ID late next week. In short,
shower/t-storm chances will linger around the Cascades and
northern mountains Thursday and return here and toward the Blues
through central Panhandle Saturday with approach of the next
trough from the west and possible wave approaching from the south.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal early this
period, warming back closer to an above normal by late in the
period. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A large plume of elevated smoke will continue to track
towards Grand Coulee, Spokane, and Coeur D`Alene areas tonight
but prevailing surface visibilities should remain VFR...although a
fire near Sprague could track smoke up towards KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. As
the inversions sets in...lower level smoke will increase around
Chelan, with the BlueSky model keeping this smoke east of KEAT
again...but impacting KMWH overnight into Sunday morning.
Confidence is not high concerning timing of MVFR visibility as
KMWH...so went with a compromise between timing of BlueSky model
and persistance. Some improvement is expected Sunday afternoon at
KMWH as surface winds switch from N-NW to SW. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        63  97  70  94  67  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  96  63  94  64  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Pullman        56  97  62  92  60  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       66 103  72  98  69  95 /   0   0  10  10  20  10
Colville       56  99  62  95  62  89 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Sandpoint      50  95  58  91  60  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Kellogg        58  95  58  94  61  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Moses Lake     59  99  69  97  64  93 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee      68  98  76  96  70  91 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Omak           60 100  70  98  64  92 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 020028
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
528 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Expect a very hot weekend with afternoon temperatures in the mid
90s to near 105. The ongoing drought combined with high heat and
low humidity will raise concerns for wildfires the next several
days. A cold front will bring temperatures back closer to average
on Tuesday. Temperatures Wednesday through Friday will likely be
at or below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday: No changes to the fcst outside of increasing
the areal coverage of smoke near the Cascades. Visibilities will
likely remain obscured to less than one mile for certainly the
immediate Lake Chelan area from the Wolverine fire. Low temps were
warmed a bit also in these smoke-filled valleys based on low temps
this morning.bz

Sunday night through Wednesday: Models are back in pretty good
agreement of the large scale synoptic pattern through the first
part of the work week. They are showing a wave move up from the
south Sunday night through Monday. With this wave will be an
increase in moisture and some very weak instability. Have added
some sprinkles and thunderstorms to the forecast. Expect the area
of sprinkles and thunderstorms to move up into the central
Cascades early Monday morning and then spread north and east
through the day and out of the area by Tuesday morning. With the
additional cloud cover Sunday night and Monday night have
increased temperatures several degrees to about 6-10 degrees above
average for this time of the year. Tuesday and Wednesday we
transition into a more west or northwesterly flow as an upper
level low pressure system moves into central British Columbia. The
track of this low is indicative of breezy winds in the Cascades,
Columbia Basin and into the Palouse and Spokane/CDA areas (about
10-20 mph). The best chance of showers or thunderstorms will
reside across the mountains. Daytime Temperatures will finally
drop to around average for Tuesday and maybe even below average
for Wednesday. /Nisbet

Wednesday night through Saturday: Expect relatively cool
temperatures and a few opportunities for showers mainly around
the mountains. Model agreement regarding the precise evolution of
the pattern degrades with a lack of solid consistency. Loose
agreement suggests an upper trough will continue to migrate across
the Pacific NW early this period. This is followed by brief
shortwave ridging before another trough approaches. Additionally
the low spinning off the CA coast moves inland and potentially by
southeast WA and southern ID late next week. In short,
shower/t-storm chances will linger around the Cascades and
northern mountains Thursday and return here and toward the Blues
through central Panhandle Saturday with approach of the next
trough from the west and possible wave approaching from the south.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal early this
period, warming back closer to an above normal by late in the
period. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A large plume of elevated smoke will continue to track
towards Grand Coulee, Spokane, and Coeur D`Alene areas tonight
but prevailing surface visibilities should remain VFR...although a
fire near Sprague could track smoke up towards KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. As
the inversions sets in...lower level smoke will increase around
Chelan, with the BlueSky model keeping this smoke east of KEAT
again...but impacting KMWH overnight into Sunday morning.
Confidence is not high concerning timing of MVFR visibility as
KMWH...so went with a compromise between timing of BlueSky model
and persistance. Some improvement is expected Sunday afternoon at
KMWH as surface winds switch from N-NW to SW. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        63  97  70  94  67  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  96  63  94  64  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Pullman        56  97  62  92  60  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       66 103  72  98  69  95 /   0   0  10  10  20  10
Colville       56  99  62  95  62  89 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Sandpoint      50  95  58  91  60  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Kellogg        58  95  58  94  61  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Moses Lake     59  99  69  97  64  93 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee      68  98  76  96  70  91 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Omak           60 100  70  98  64  92 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
Asotin Counties.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSEW 012251
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
400 PM 900 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR COOLER
WEATHER. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY IS ANOTHER 90+ DEGREE DAY FOR THE INTERIOR FROM
SEATTLE SOUTHWARD. HEIGHTS SUNDAY ARE JUST A TAD LOWER SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER.
STILL LOOKING AT 90 DEGREES SUNDAY FOR THE SEATTLE AREA. THE HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THE INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

MODELS SHOW SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE CASCADES
BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY EVENING. HAVE
ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CASCADES THEN. OTHERWISE
MONDAY LOOKS MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOLER. HEIGHTS FALL INTO THE 570S AS
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER INLAND AREAS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
HEIGHTS FALL FURTHER OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. SOME MODELS HAVE HAD A
FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER WASHINGTON AS THIS TROUGH MOVES PAST
THE AREA. HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE PRETTY DRY NOW. HAVE
REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE
LOWLANDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S
WITH SOME LOW 80S OVER THE SOUTH INTERIOR. BURKE

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER TROUGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MAINLY IT IS A MATTER OF DEPRESSING THE HEIGHTS AND GIVING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE KEPT THE LOWLANDS DRY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS PAST BY FRIDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE ACTUALLY
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WHOLE AREA INCLUDING THE
MOUNTAINS DRY...WITH SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND. BURKE

&&

.CLIMATE...JULY 2015 WAS THE WARMEST MONTH ON RECORD IN SEATTLE WITH
AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 71.2 DEGREES. THE OLD RECORD WAS 71.1
DEGREES SET IN AUGUST OF 1967. THIS RECORD INCLUDES THE FEDERAL
BUILDING RECORDS WHICH GO BACK TO THE 1890S.

IT WAS THE WARMEST JULY ON RECORD AT BOTH HOQUIAM AND FORKS. AT
HOQUIAM THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR JULY WAS 63.9 DEGREES BREAKING
THE RECORD OF 63.0 DEGREES SET IN 1958. AT FORKS THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 63.0 DEGREES BREAKING THE RECORD OF 61.4 SET IN
1990. RECORDS BEGAN IN HOQUIAM IN 1953 AND AT FORKS IN 1966.

OTHER LOCATIONS AROUND WESTERN WASHINGTON...AT BELLINGHAM IT WAS THE
2ND WARMEST JULY ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 67.2. THE
RECORD IS 68.0 DEGREES SET IN 1958. OLYMPIA ALSO HAD THE SECOND
WARMEST JULY ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 68.0 DEGREES.
THE RECORD IS 69.1 SET ALSO IN 1958. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE STABLE
AND DRY...EXCEPT FOR SHALLOW MARINE MOISTURE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO
THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING LOCAL IFR
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

KSEA...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND MOSTLY 4-10 KT.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES WILL RESULT IN STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWESTERLIES THIS EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO
INNER COASTAL WATERS ZONES. HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES
ARE LIKELY IN THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE
STRAIT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND GALES ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. GALE FORCE WESTERLIES ARE A GOOD BET THERE MONDAY NIGHT.
MCDONNAL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE VERY DRY AIR MASS IN RECENT DAYS WILL START TO LOOSEN ITS GRIP
ON THE AREA ON SUNDAY. IN FACT...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS
WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND EXIT EAST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY
SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO MOISTEN JUST ENOUGH
TO LET THE RED FLAG WARNINGS EXPIRE THIS EVENING. ONCE THE RED FLAG
WARNING DOES EXPIRE LATE THIS EVENING...IT JUST MEANS THAT WEATHER
WILL BE LESS OF AN AGGRAVATING FACTOR IN THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT.
BACKGROUND FIRE DANGER WILL STILL BE ELEVATED DUE TO DRY FUELS.

THE NEW WRINKLE IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST IS THE INTRODUCTION OF
ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING TO THE CASCADES FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL
EARLY MONDAY EVENING. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST...SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AND BRING NORTH THE NEEDED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. TODAY`S MODELS CAME AROUND TO SHOWING THE CASCADES AT
THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF A LARGER-SCALE LIGHTNING RISK AREA. THE FIRST
THREAT OVER THE CASCADES WILL BE FROM HIGH-BASED NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION THAT COULD BRING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING TO THE CASCADES
FROM MOUNT RAINIER ON SOUTH IN THE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY.
THE LIGHTNING THREAT WILL REACH THE NORTH CASCADES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN END ON MONDAY EVENING. A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND
THE STEADY FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS IS A RECIPE FOR SUB-
WETTING RAINS WITH ANY STORMS.HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT TIL 8 PM SUNDAY FOR PARTS OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

     RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TIL 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE
CASCADES AND OLYMPICS ABOVE 2000 FEET.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND TWO SOUTHERN
      INNER COASTAL WATERS ZONES...CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA...EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.

&&

$$

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 012251
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
400 PM 900 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR COOLER
WEATHER. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY IS ANOTHER 90+ DEGREE DAY FOR THE INTERIOR FROM
SEATTLE SOUTHWARD. HEIGHTS SUNDAY ARE JUST A TAD LOWER SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER.
STILL LOOKING AT 90 DEGREES SUNDAY FOR THE SEATTLE AREA. THE HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THE INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

MODELS SHOW SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE CASCADES
BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY EVENING. HAVE
ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CASCADES THEN. OTHERWISE
MONDAY LOOKS MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOLER. HEIGHTS FALL INTO THE 570S AS
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER INLAND AREAS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
HEIGHTS FALL FURTHER OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. SOME MODELS HAVE HAD A
FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER WASHINGTON AS THIS TROUGH MOVES PAST
THE AREA. HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE PRETTY DRY NOW. HAVE
REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE
LOWLANDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S
WITH SOME LOW 80S OVER THE SOUTH INTERIOR. BURKE

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER TROUGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MAINLY IT IS A MATTER OF DEPRESSING THE HEIGHTS AND GIVING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE KEPT THE LOWLANDS DRY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS PAST BY FRIDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE ACTUALLY
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WHOLE AREA INCLUDING THE
MOUNTAINS DRY...WITH SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND. BURKE

&&

.CLIMATE...JULY 2015 WAS THE WARMEST MONTH ON RECORD IN SEATTLE WITH
AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 71.2 DEGREES. THE OLD RECORD WAS 71.1
DEGREES SET IN AUGUST OF 1967. THIS RECORD INCLUDES THE FEDERAL
BUILDING RECORDS WHICH GO BACK TO THE 1890S.

IT WAS THE WARMEST JULY ON RECORD AT BOTH HOQUIAM AND FORKS. AT
HOQUIAM THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR JULY WAS 63.9 DEGREES BREAKING
THE RECORD OF 63.0 DEGREES SET IN 1958. AT FORKS THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 63.0 DEGREES BREAKING THE RECORD OF 61.4 SET IN
1990. RECORDS BEGAN IN HOQUIAM IN 1953 AND AT FORKS IN 1966.

OTHER LOCATIONS AROUND WESTERN WASHINGTON...AT BELLINGHAM IT WAS THE
2ND WARMEST JULY ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 67.2. THE
RECORD IS 68.0 DEGREES SET IN 1958. OLYMPIA ALSO HAD THE SECOND
WARMEST JULY ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 68.0 DEGREES.
THE RECORD IS 69.1 SET ALSO IN 1958. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE STABLE
AND DRY...EXCEPT FOR SHALLOW MARINE MOISTURE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO
THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING LOCAL IFR
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

KSEA...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND MOSTLY 4-10 KT.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES WILL RESULT IN STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWESTERLIES THIS EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO
INNER COASTAL WATERS ZONES. HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES
ARE LIKELY IN THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE
STRAIT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND GALES ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. GALE FORCE WESTERLIES ARE A GOOD BET THERE MONDAY NIGHT.
MCDONNAL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE VERY DRY AIR MASS IN RECENT DAYS WILL START TO LOOSEN ITS GRIP
ON THE AREA ON SUNDAY. IN FACT...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS
WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND EXIT EAST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY
SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO MOISTEN JUST ENOUGH
TO LET THE RED FLAG WARNINGS EXPIRE THIS EVENING. ONCE THE RED FLAG
WARNING DOES EXPIRE LATE THIS EVENING...IT JUST MEANS THAT WEATHER
WILL BE LESS OF AN AGGRAVATING FACTOR IN THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT.
BACKGROUND FIRE DANGER WILL STILL BE ELEVATED DUE TO DRY FUELS.

THE NEW WRINKLE IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST IS THE INTRODUCTION OF
ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING TO THE CASCADES FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL
EARLY MONDAY EVENING. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST...SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AND BRING NORTH THE NEEDED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. TODAY`S MODELS CAME AROUND TO SHOWING THE CASCADES AT
THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF A LARGER-SCALE LIGHTNING RISK AREA. THE FIRST
THREAT OVER THE CASCADES WILL BE FROM HIGH-BASED NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION THAT COULD BRING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING TO THE CASCADES
FROM MOUNT RAINIER ON SOUTH IN THE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY.
THE LIGHTNING THREAT WILL REACH THE NORTH CASCADES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN END ON MONDAY EVENING. A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND
THE STEADY FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS IS A RECIPE FOR SUB-
WETTING RAINS WITH ANY STORMS.HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT TIL 8 PM SUNDAY FOR PARTS OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

     RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TIL 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE
CASCADES AND OLYMPICS ABOVE 2000 FEET.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND TWO SOUTHERN
      INNER COASTAL WATERS ZONES...CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA...EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.

&&

$$

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KSEW 012251
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
400 PM 900 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR COOLER
WEATHER. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY IS ANOTHER 90+ DEGREE DAY FOR THE INTERIOR FROM
SEATTLE SOUTHWARD. HEIGHTS SUNDAY ARE JUST A TAD LOWER SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER.
STILL LOOKING AT 90 DEGREES SUNDAY FOR THE SEATTLE AREA. THE HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THE INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

MODELS SHOW SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE CASCADES
BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY EVENING. HAVE
ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CASCADES THEN. OTHERWISE
MONDAY LOOKS MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOLER. HEIGHTS FALL INTO THE 570S AS
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER INLAND AREAS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
HEIGHTS FALL FURTHER OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. SOME MODELS HAVE HAD A
FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER WASHINGTON AS THIS TROUGH MOVES PAST
THE AREA. HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE PRETTY DRY NOW. HAVE
REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE
LOWLANDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S
WITH SOME LOW 80S OVER THE SOUTH INTERIOR. BURKE

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER TROUGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MAINLY IT IS A MATTER OF DEPRESSING THE HEIGHTS AND GIVING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE KEPT THE LOWLANDS DRY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS PAST BY FRIDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE ACTUALLY
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WHOLE AREA INCLUDING THE
MOUNTAINS DRY...WITH SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND. BURKE

&&

.CLIMATE...JULY 2015 WAS THE WARMEST MONTH ON RECORD IN SEATTLE WITH
AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 71.2 DEGREES. THE OLD RECORD WAS 71.1
DEGREES SET IN AUGUST OF 1967. THIS RECORD INCLUDES THE FEDERAL
BUILDING RECORDS WHICH GO BACK TO THE 1890S.

IT WAS THE WARMEST JULY ON RECORD AT BOTH HOQUIAM AND FORKS. AT
HOQUIAM THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR JULY WAS 63.9 DEGREES BREAKING
THE RECORD OF 63.0 DEGREES SET IN 1958. AT FORKS THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 63.0 DEGREES BREAKING THE RECORD OF 61.4 SET IN
1990. RECORDS BEGAN IN HOQUIAM IN 1953 AND AT FORKS IN 1966.

OTHER LOCATIONS AROUND WESTERN WASHINGTON...AT BELLINGHAM IT WAS THE
2ND WARMEST JULY ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 67.2. THE
RECORD IS 68.0 DEGREES SET IN 1958. OLYMPIA ALSO HAD THE SECOND
WARMEST JULY ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 68.0 DEGREES.
THE RECORD IS 69.1 SET ALSO IN 1958. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE STABLE
AND DRY...EXCEPT FOR SHALLOW MARINE MOISTURE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO
THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING LOCAL IFR
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

KSEA...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND MOSTLY 4-10 KT.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES WILL RESULT IN STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWESTERLIES THIS EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO
INNER COASTAL WATERS ZONES. HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES
ARE LIKELY IN THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE
STRAIT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND GALES ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. GALE FORCE WESTERLIES ARE A GOOD BET THERE MONDAY NIGHT.
MCDONNAL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE VERY DRY AIR MASS IN RECENT DAYS WILL START TO LOOSEN ITS GRIP
ON THE AREA ON SUNDAY. IN FACT...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS
WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND EXIT EAST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY
SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO MOISTEN JUST ENOUGH
TO LET THE RED FLAG WARNINGS EXPIRE THIS EVENING. ONCE THE RED FLAG
WARNING DOES EXPIRE LATE THIS EVENING...IT JUST MEANS THAT WEATHER
WILL BE LESS OF AN AGGRAVATING FACTOR IN THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT.
BACKGROUND FIRE DANGER WILL STILL BE ELEVATED DUE TO DRY FUELS.

THE NEW WRINKLE IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST IS THE INTRODUCTION OF
ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING TO THE CASCADES FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL
EARLY MONDAY EVENING. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST...SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AND BRING NORTH THE NEEDED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. TODAY`S MODELS CAME AROUND TO SHOWING THE CASCADES AT
THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF A LARGER-SCALE LIGHTNING RISK AREA. THE FIRST
THREAT OVER THE CASCADES WILL BE FROM HIGH-BASED NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION THAT COULD BRING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING TO THE CASCADES
FROM MOUNT RAINIER ON SOUTH IN THE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY.
THE LIGHTNING THREAT WILL REACH THE NORTH CASCADES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN END ON MONDAY EVENING. A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND
THE STEADY FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS IS A RECIPE FOR SUB-
WETTING RAINS WITH ANY STORMS.HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT TIL 8 PM SUNDAY FOR PARTS OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

     RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TIL 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE
CASCADES AND OLYMPICS ABOVE 2000 FEET.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND TWO SOUTHERN
      INNER COASTAL WATERS ZONES...CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA...EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.

&&

$$

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KPQR 012228
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
327 PM PDT SAT AUG  1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
AROUND 590 DM WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL STEER SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
WESTERN OREGON THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE OREGON CASCADES
INITIALLY...WITH SOME DEBRIS MOISTURE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE CASCADES
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A SLOWLY
DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THE
THERMAL TROUGH EAST OF THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY WILL BRING GRADUAL
COOLING TO THE AREA AFTER TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR MORE COOLING AND
POSSIBLY EVEN SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SET UP THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO
HAVE A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH 590
DM 500MB HEIGHTS INTO NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.
THERE IS A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST WITH NORTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE COAST. AN UPPER LOW IS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW SPREADING MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORM
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRAS TOWARD WESTERN OREGON...WITH
SOME LIGHTNING NEAR MEDFORD THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH OREGON COAST WITH DEEPER STRATUS
THERE...BUT THE MODELS INDICATED THESE WINDS WILL HAVE TROUBLE
REACHING OUR COAST VERY SOON DESPITE THE FAVORABLE WIND FLOW ALOFT.

WE ARE SEEING ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 23 DEG
C TODAY...SIMILAR TO THOSE FRIDAY. WE ARE SEEING A BIT OF THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TO OUR SOUTH SPREADING INTO LANE COUNTY. WE ARE
RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BEHIND FRIDAY AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL
SHOULD GET WELL UP INTO THE 90S AND POSSIBLE TOUCH 100 AT A FEW
SPOTS. REGARDING THE THUNDERSTORM DEBRIS MOVING NORTHWARD...THE
MODELS ALL SAY THE MAIN CHANCE OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE IN THE CASCADES AND HAVE CONTINUED THAT IDEA FOR NOW
BUT IT WILL BARE WATCHING.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SO NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN SINCE LAST
WEEKEND. QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LOCATED. THE MODELS SEEM PRETTY CERTAIN THAT THEY WILL SPREAD FARTHER
NORTH THROUGH THE OREGON CASCADES ON SUNDAY...BUT FEEL THAT THERE IS
A CHANCE TOWARD THE COAST RANGE ON SUNDAY. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE MORNING FORECAST ALONG THOSE LINES AND WILL STAY WITH THAT IDEA
IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

THE MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN NEVADA SPREADING
NORTH THROUGH WESTERN OREGON AND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...LIKELY MODULATED BY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY SPREAD THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES. THIS COULD BE A BETTER TRIGGER FOR SOME
CONVECTION IN THE VALLEYS AS WELL AND CLOSE TO THE COAST RANGE.

THE MODELS SHOW THE THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING BACK OVER THE WESTERN
VALLEY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOVING EAST OF THE CASCADES ON
SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE. AFTER POSSIBLY FLIRTING
WITH 100 AGAIN IN MANY INLAND AREAS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPS
INLAND WILL PROBABLY FALL INTO 90 TO 95 RANGE ON SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME MARINE
CLOUDS REACHING PORTLAND AND EUGENE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
INLAND TEMPS NOT MUCH ABOVE 90..IF THAT.

THUNDER AFTER MONDAY MORNING WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
CASCADES AND IN THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE MODELS INDICATE A BIT BETTER MARINE INTRUSION INLAND ON TUESDAY
MORNING AND WENT WITH MORE MORNING CLOUDS IN THE NORTH VALLEY THEN.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE NORTH VALLEY AND MID TO
UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY THUNDER ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES...BUT LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAKES THAT NOT CERTAIN EITHER. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THE GENERAL TREND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
TOWARDS COOLER WEATHER. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRUSHING BY THE REGION LATE TUESDAY...BUT KEEPS MOST OF THE
ENERGY TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR LATE TUESDAY DUE TO SOME LINGERING
INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES RETURN TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS BY
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS
SUCH...HAVE USED A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON
CASCADES. /64
&&

.AVIATION...VFR INLAND. A RIBBON OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO HUG THE
COASTLINE AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF MOVING ONSHORE AFTER BURNED OFF THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE EARLIER. STILL FEEL THERE IS A MODERATE OR BETTER
CHANCE OF IT RETURNING INLAND THIS EVENING WITH IMPACTS LIKELY
LIMITED TO KAST AND KONP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. CONVECTION DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM EARLIER ARE REMAINING HIGH LEVEL WITH RADAR INDICATING SOME
VIRGA FROM THEM. NEW CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE SISKIYOUS AND
THE SOUTH CASCADES WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER
THE CENTRAL CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BETTER CHANCE FOR
IMPACTS TO THE TAF TERMINALS WILL HAPPEN OVERNIGHT FROM ADDITIONAL
DEBRIS DRIFTING NORTH BRINGING ALTO CUMULUS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWER
POTENTIAL. DEEPER CONVECTION BECOMES POSSIBLE CLOSER TOWARD 03/00Z
FOR INLAND AREAS INCLUDING KEUG AND NORTH THROUGH KSLE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH DENSER MID-LEVEL
POCKETS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
LONGER RANGE EASTERN APPROACHES THROUGH 02/02Z. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PRESSURE PATTERN.
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHERLY COMPONENT WINDS OVER THE WATERS WITH
VARYING DEGREES OF STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENT SET OF
WINDS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON AND EVENING GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS ACROSS THE
FULL SET OF WATERS. THE INNER WATER SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF AROUND
SUNSET WHILE THE OUTER WATERS CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL
SET OF GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
EASING BELOW CRITERIA FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE SPLIT THE
ADVISORY FOR WINDS TO BETTER REFLECT EXPECTED CONDITIONS AND ALSO FOR
WHAT REALITY HAS BROUGHT THE PAST 48 HOUR.

THIS LONGER TIME FRAME OF PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS IS PRODUCING
CHOPPY SEAS AND HAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND THE 7 FT SQUARE SEA MINIMUM
CRITERIA. REALITY IS SHOWING SEAS ABOUT A FOOT BELOW WW3 GUIDANCE SO
HAVE DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AT THIS TIME
BUT STILL FEEL LIKE WE ARE WALKING A FINE LINE. OTHERWISE /JBONK
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 05Z FOR
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 5-6. MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER
THE NORTH ZONES...NORTH OF A LINE FROM AROUND BENTON COUNTY EAST TO
MT. JEFFERSON. MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FILTERING INTO THE SOUTH
ZONES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 4 VALUES...HELPING TO
REDUCE POTENTIAL COLUMN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. ONE OTHER NEAR-TERM
CONCERN IS LIGHTNING IN THE FAR SE PART OF THE AREA. AT 22Z A FEW
STRIKES NOTED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST NEAR WILLAMETTE PASS. FEEL ANY
CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ZONE 608 AND PERHAPS
THE EAST HALF OF ZONE 606. CONVECTIVE THREAT SPREADS NORTH AND WEST
SUNDAY AS SOUTH FLOW ALOFT FURTHER NORTH AND 500 MB RIDGE AXIS
GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTH AS WELL. HAVE SPREAD MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE S WA CASCADES SUN EVENING THROUGH MON MORNING. WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS FOR SUN...BUT FOR NOW FEEL LIKE
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG. ALSO...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER THE S HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY WILL TEND TO BECOME
WETTER DUE TO THE LONGER-DURATION MOIST SOUTH FLOW. CONVECTIVE
THREAT GETS PUSHED EAST OF THE CASCADES MON NIGHT AND TUE...WITH ANY
THREAT TUE NEAR THE CREST OF ZONE 608. WEISHAAR
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD
     RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST RANGE-MT. HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE
     CREST-NORTH OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE-
     WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST-WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS
     IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-
     NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

WA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK COUNTY
     LOWLANDS-EAST WILLAPA HILLS-EXTREME SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.
&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 012228
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
327 PM PDT SAT AUG  1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
AROUND 590 DM WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL STEER SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
WESTERN OREGON THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE OREGON CASCADES
INITIALLY...WITH SOME DEBRIS MOISTURE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE CASCADES
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A SLOWLY
DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THE
THERMAL TROUGH EAST OF THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY WILL BRING GRADUAL
COOLING TO THE AREA AFTER TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR MORE COOLING AND
POSSIBLY EVEN SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SET UP THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO
HAVE A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH 590
DM 500MB HEIGHTS INTO NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.
THERE IS A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST WITH NORTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE COAST. AN UPPER LOW IS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW SPREADING MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORM
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRAS TOWARD WESTERN OREGON...WITH
SOME LIGHTNING NEAR MEDFORD THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH OREGON COAST WITH DEEPER STRATUS
THERE...BUT THE MODELS INDICATED THESE WINDS WILL HAVE TROUBLE
REACHING OUR COAST VERY SOON DESPITE THE FAVORABLE WIND FLOW ALOFT.

WE ARE SEEING ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 23 DEG
C TODAY...SIMILAR TO THOSE FRIDAY. WE ARE SEEING A BIT OF THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TO OUR SOUTH SPREADING INTO LANE COUNTY. WE ARE
RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BEHIND FRIDAY AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL
SHOULD GET WELL UP INTO THE 90S AND POSSIBLE TOUCH 100 AT A FEW
SPOTS. REGARDING THE THUNDERSTORM DEBRIS MOVING NORTHWARD...THE
MODELS ALL SAY THE MAIN CHANCE OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE IN THE CASCADES AND HAVE CONTINUED THAT IDEA FOR NOW
BUT IT WILL BARE WATCHING.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SO NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN SINCE LAST
WEEKEND. QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LOCATED. THE MODELS SEEM PRETTY CERTAIN THAT THEY WILL SPREAD FARTHER
NORTH THROUGH THE OREGON CASCADES ON SUNDAY...BUT FEEL THAT THERE IS
A CHANCE TOWARD THE COAST RANGE ON SUNDAY. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE MORNING FORECAST ALONG THOSE LINES AND WILL STAY WITH THAT IDEA
IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

THE MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN NEVADA SPREADING
NORTH THROUGH WESTERN OREGON AND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...LIKELY MODULATED BY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY SPREAD THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES. THIS COULD BE A BETTER TRIGGER FOR SOME
CONVECTION IN THE VALLEYS AS WELL AND CLOSE TO THE COAST RANGE.

THE MODELS SHOW THE THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING BACK OVER THE WESTERN
VALLEY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOVING EAST OF THE CASCADES ON
SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE. AFTER POSSIBLY FLIRTING
WITH 100 AGAIN IN MANY INLAND AREAS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPS
INLAND WILL PROBABLY FALL INTO 90 TO 95 RANGE ON SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME MARINE
CLOUDS REACHING PORTLAND AND EUGENE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
INLAND TEMPS NOT MUCH ABOVE 90..IF THAT.

THUNDER AFTER MONDAY MORNING WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
CASCADES AND IN THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE MODELS INDICATE A BIT BETTER MARINE INTRUSION INLAND ON TUESDAY
MORNING AND WENT WITH MORE MORNING CLOUDS IN THE NORTH VALLEY THEN.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE NORTH VALLEY AND MID TO
UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY THUNDER ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES...BUT LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAKES THAT NOT CERTAIN EITHER. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THE GENERAL TREND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
TOWARDS COOLER WEATHER. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRUSHING BY THE REGION LATE TUESDAY...BUT KEEPS MOST OF THE
ENERGY TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR LATE TUESDAY DUE TO SOME LINGERING
INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES RETURN TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS BY
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS
SUCH...HAVE USED A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON
CASCADES. /64
&&

.AVIATION...VFR INLAND. A RIBBON OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO HUG THE
COASTLINE AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF MOVING ONSHORE AFTER BURNED OFF THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE EARLIER. STILL FEEL THERE IS A MODERATE OR BETTER
CHANCE OF IT RETURNING INLAND THIS EVENING WITH IMPACTS LIKELY
LIMITED TO KAST AND KONP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. CONVECTION DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM EARLIER ARE REMAINING HIGH LEVEL WITH RADAR INDICATING SOME
VIRGA FROM THEM. NEW CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE SISKIYOUS AND
THE SOUTH CASCADES WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER
THE CENTRAL CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BETTER CHANCE FOR
IMPACTS TO THE TAF TERMINALS WILL HAPPEN OVERNIGHT FROM ADDITIONAL
DEBRIS DRIFTING NORTH BRINGING ALTO CUMULUS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWER
POTENTIAL. DEEPER CONVECTION BECOMES POSSIBLE CLOSER TOWARD 03/00Z
FOR INLAND AREAS INCLUDING KEUG AND NORTH THROUGH KSLE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH DENSER MID-LEVEL
POCKETS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
LONGER RANGE EASTERN APPROACHES THROUGH 02/02Z. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PRESSURE PATTERN.
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHERLY COMPONENT WINDS OVER THE WATERS WITH
VARYING DEGREES OF STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENT SET OF
WINDS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON AND EVENING GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS ACROSS THE
FULL SET OF WATERS. THE INNER WATER SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF AROUND
SUNSET WHILE THE OUTER WATERS CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL
SET OF GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
EASING BELOW CRITERIA FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE SPLIT THE
ADVISORY FOR WINDS TO BETTER REFLECT EXPECTED CONDITIONS AND ALSO FOR
WHAT REALITY HAS BROUGHT THE PAST 48 HOUR.

THIS LONGER TIME FRAME OF PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS IS PRODUCING
CHOPPY SEAS AND HAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND THE 7 FT SQUARE SEA MINIMUM
CRITERIA. REALITY IS SHOWING SEAS ABOUT A FOOT BELOW WW3 GUIDANCE SO
HAVE DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AT THIS TIME
BUT STILL FEEL LIKE WE ARE WALKING A FINE LINE. OTHERWISE /JBONK
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 05Z FOR
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 5-6. MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER
THE NORTH ZONES...NORTH OF A LINE FROM AROUND BENTON COUNTY EAST TO
MT. JEFFERSON. MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FILTERING INTO THE SOUTH
ZONES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 4 VALUES...HELPING TO
REDUCE POTENTIAL COLUMN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. ONE OTHER NEAR-TERM
CONCERN IS LIGHTNING IN THE FAR SE PART OF THE AREA. AT 22Z A FEW
STRIKES NOTED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST NEAR WILLAMETTE PASS. FEEL ANY
CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ZONE 608 AND PERHAPS
THE EAST HALF OF ZONE 606. CONVECTIVE THREAT SPREADS NORTH AND WEST
SUNDAY AS SOUTH FLOW ALOFT FURTHER NORTH AND 500 MB RIDGE AXIS
GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTH AS WELL. HAVE SPREAD MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE S WA CASCADES SUN EVENING THROUGH MON MORNING. WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS FOR SUN...BUT FOR NOW FEEL LIKE
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG. ALSO...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER THE S HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY WILL TEND TO BECOME
WETTER DUE TO THE LONGER-DURATION MOIST SOUTH FLOW. CONVECTIVE
THREAT GETS PUSHED EAST OF THE CASCADES MON NIGHT AND TUE...WITH ANY
THREAT TUE NEAR THE CREST OF ZONE 608. WEISHAAR
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD
     RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST RANGE-MT. HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE
     CREST-NORTH OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE-
     WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST-WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS
     IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-
     NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

WA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK COUNTY
     LOWLANDS-EAST WILLAPA HILLS-EXTREME SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.
&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 012228
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
327 PM PDT SAT AUG  1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
AROUND 590 DM WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL STEER SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
WESTERN OREGON THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE OREGON CASCADES
INITIALLY...WITH SOME DEBRIS MOISTURE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE CASCADES
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A SLOWLY
DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THE
THERMAL TROUGH EAST OF THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY WILL BRING GRADUAL
COOLING TO THE AREA AFTER TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR MORE COOLING AND
POSSIBLY EVEN SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SET UP THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO
HAVE A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH 590
DM 500MB HEIGHTS INTO NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.
THERE IS A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST WITH NORTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE COAST. AN UPPER LOW IS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW SPREADING MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORM
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRAS TOWARD WESTERN OREGON...WITH
SOME LIGHTNING NEAR MEDFORD THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH OREGON COAST WITH DEEPER STRATUS
THERE...BUT THE MODELS INDICATED THESE WINDS WILL HAVE TROUBLE
REACHING OUR COAST VERY SOON DESPITE THE FAVORABLE WIND FLOW ALOFT.

WE ARE SEEING ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 23 DEG
C TODAY...SIMILAR TO THOSE FRIDAY. WE ARE SEEING A BIT OF THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TO OUR SOUTH SPREADING INTO LANE COUNTY. WE ARE
RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BEHIND FRIDAY AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL
SHOULD GET WELL UP INTO THE 90S AND POSSIBLE TOUCH 100 AT A FEW
SPOTS. REGARDING THE THUNDERSTORM DEBRIS MOVING NORTHWARD...THE
MODELS ALL SAY THE MAIN CHANCE OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE IN THE CASCADES AND HAVE CONTINUED THAT IDEA FOR NOW
BUT IT WILL BARE WATCHING.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SO NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN SINCE LAST
WEEKEND. QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LOCATED. THE MODELS SEEM PRETTY CERTAIN THAT THEY WILL SPREAD FARTHER
NORTH THROUGH THE OREGON CASCADES ON SUNDAY...BUT FEEL THAT THERE IS
A CHANCE TOWARD THE COAST RANGE ON SUNDAY. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE MORNING FORECAST ALONG THOSE LINES AND WILL STAY WITH THAT IDEA
IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

THE MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN NEVADA SPREADING
NORTH THROUGH WESTERN OREGON AND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...LIKELY MODULATED BY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY SPREAD THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES. THIS COULD BE A BETTER TRIGGER FOR SOME
CONVECTION IN THE VALLEYS AS WELL AND CLOSE TO THE COAST RANGE.

THE MODELS SHOW THE THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING BACK OVER THE WESTERN
VALLEY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOVING EAST OF THE CASCADES ON
SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE. AFTER POSSIBLY FLIRTING
WITH 100 AGAIN IN MANY INLAND AREAS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPS
INLAND WILL PROBABLY FALL INTO 90 TO 95 RANGE ON SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME MARINE
CLOUDS REACHING PORTLAND AND EUGENE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
INLAND TEMPS NOT MUCH ABOVE 90..IF THAT.

THUNDER AFTER MONDAY MORNING WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
CASCADES AND IN THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE MODELS INDICATE A BIT BETTER MARINE INTRUSION INLAND ON TUESDAY
MORNING AND WENT WITH MORE MORNING CLOUDS IN THE NORTH VALLEY THEN.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE NORTH VALLEY AND MID TO
UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY THUNDER ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES...BUT LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAKES THAT NOT CERTAIN EITHER. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THE GENERAL TREND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
TOWARDS COOLER WEATHER. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRUSHING BY THE REGION LATE TUESDAY...BUT KEEPS MOST OF THE
ENERGY TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR LATE TUESDAY DUE TO SOME LINGERING
INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES RETURN TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS BY
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS
SUCH...HAVE USED A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON
CASCADES. /64
&&

.AVIATION...VFR INLAND. A RIBBON OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO HUG THE
COASTLINE AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF MOVING ONSHORE AFTER BURNED OFF THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE EARLIER. STILL FEEL THERE IS A MODERATE OR BETTER
CHANCE OF IT RETURNING INLAND THIS EVENING WITH IMPACTS LIKELY
LIMITED TO KAST AND KONP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. CONVECTION DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM EARLIER ARE REMAINING HIGH LEVEL WITH RADAR INDICATING SOME
VIRGA FROM THEM. NEW CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE SISKIYOUS AND
THE SOUTH CASCADES WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER
THE CENTRAL CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BETTER CHANCE FOR
IMPACTS TO THE TAF TERMINALS WILL HAPPEN OVERNIGHT FROM ADDITIONAL
DEBRIS DRIFTING NORTH BRINGING ALTO CUMULUS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWER
POTENTIAL. DEEPER CONVECTION BECOMES POSSIBLE CLOSER TOWARD 03/00Z
FOR INLAND AREAS INCLUDING KEUG AND NORTH THROUGH KSLE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH DENSER MID-LEVEL
POCKETS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
LONGER RANGE EASTERN APPROACHES THROUGH 02/02Z. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PRESSURE PATTERN.
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHERLY COMPONENT WINDS OVER THE WATERS WITH
VARYING DEGREES OF STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENT SET OF
WINDS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON AND EVENING GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS ACROSS THE
FULL SET OF WATERS. THE INNER WATER SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF AROUND
SUNSET WHILE THE OUTER WATERS CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL
SET OF GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
EASING BELOW CRITERIA FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE SPLIT THE
ADVISORY FOR WINDS TO BETTER REFLECT EXPECTED CONDITIONS AND ALSO FOR
WHAT REALITY HAS BROUGHT THE PAST 48 HOUR.

THIS LONGER TIME FRAME OF PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS IS PRODUCING
CHOPPY SEAS AND HAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND THE 7 FT SQUARE SEA MINIMUM
CRITERIA. REALITY IS SHOWING SEAS ABOUT A FOOT BELOW WW3 GUIDANCE SO
HAVE DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AT THIS TIME
BUT STILL FEEL LIKE WE ARE WALKING A FINE LINE. OTHERWISE /JBONK
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 05Z FOR
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 5-6. MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER
THE NORTH ZONES...NORTH OF A LINE FROM AROUND BENTON COUNTY EAST TO
MT. JEFFERSON. MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FILTERING INTO THE SOUTH
ZONES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 4 VALUES...HELPING TO
REDUCE POTENTIAL COLUMN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. ONE OTHER NEAR-TERM
CONCERN IS LIGHTNING IN THE FAR SE PART OF THE AREA. AT 22Z A FEW
STRIKES NOTED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST NEAR WILLAMETTE PASS. FEEL ANY
CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ZONE 608 AND PERHAPS
THE EAST HALF OF ZONE 606. CONVECTIVE THREAT SPREADS NORTH AND WEST
SUNDAY AS SOUTH FLOW ALOFT FURTHER NORTH AND 500 MB RIDGE AXIS
GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTH AS WELL. HAVE SPREAD MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE S WA CASCADES SUN EVENING THROUGH MON MORNING. WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS FOR SUN...BUT FOR NOW FEEL LIKE
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG. ALSO...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER THE S HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY WILL TEND TO BECOME
WETTER DUE TO THE LONGER-DURATION MOIST SOUTH FLOW. CONVECTIVE
THREAT GETS PUSHED EAST OF THE CASCADES MON NIGHT AND TUE...WITH ANY
THREAT TUE NEAR THE CREST OF ZONE 608. WEISHAAR
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD
     RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST RANGE-MT. HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE
     CREST-NORTH OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE-
     WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST-WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS
     IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-
     NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

WA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK COUNTY
     LOWLANDS-EAST WILLAPA HILLS-EXTREME SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.
&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 012228
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
327 PM PDT SAT AUG  1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
AROUND 590 DM WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL STEER SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
WESTERN OREGON THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE OREGON CASCADES
INITIALLY...WITH SOME DEBRIS MOISTURE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE CASCADES
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A SLOWLY
DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THE
THERMAL TROUGH EAST OF THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY WILL BRING GRADUAL
COOLING TO THE AREA AFTER TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR MORE COOLING AND
POSSIBLY EVEN SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SET UP THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO
HAVE A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH 590
DM 500MB HEIGHTS INTO NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.
THERE IS A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST WITH NORTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE COAST. AN UPPER LOW IS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW SPREADING MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORM
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRAS TOWARD WESTERN OREGON...WITH
SOME LIGHTNING NEAR MEDFORD THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH OREGON COAST WITH DEEPER STRATUS
THERE...BUT THE MODELS INDICATED THESE WINDS WILL HAVE TROUBLE
REACHING OUR COAST VERY SOON DESPITE THE FAVORABLE WIND FLOW ALOFT.

WE ARE SEEING ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 23 DEG
C TODAY...SIMILAR TO THOSE FRIDAY. WE ARE SEEING A BIT OF THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TO OUR SOUTH SPREADING INTO LANE COUNTY. WE ARE
RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BEHIND FRIDAY AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL
SHOULD GET WELL UP INTO THE 90S AND POSSIBLE TOUCH 100 AT A FEW
SPOTS. REGARDING THE THUNDERSTORM DEBRIS MOVING NORTHWARD...THE
MODELS ALL SAY THE MAIN CHANCE OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE IN THE CASCADES AND HAVE CONTINUED THAT IDEA FOR NOW
BUT IT WILL BARE WATCHING.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SO NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN SINCE LAST
WEEKEND. QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LOCATED. THE MODELS SEEM PRETTY CERTAIN THAT THEY WILL SPREAD FARTHER
NORTH THROUGH THE OREGON CASCADES ON SUNDAY...BUT FEEL THAT THERE IS
A CHANCE TOWARD THE COAST RANGE ON SUNDAY. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE MORNING FORECAST ALONG THOSE LINES AND WILL STAY WITH THAT IDEA
IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

THE MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN NEVADA SPREADING
NORTH THROUGH WESTERN OREGON AND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...LIKELY MODULATED BY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY SPREAD THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES. THIS COULD BE A BETTER TRIGGER FOR SOME
CONVECTION IN THE VALLEYS AS WELL AND CLOSE TO THE COAST RANGE.

THE MODELS SHOW THE THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING BACK OVER THE WESTERN
VALLEY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOVING EAST OF THE CASCADES ON
SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE. AFTER POSSIBLY FLIRTING
WITH 100 AGAIN IN MANY INLAND AREAS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPS
INLAND WILL PROBABLY FALL INTO 90 TO 95 RANGE ON SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME MARINE
CLOUDS REACHING PORTLAND AND EUGENE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
INLAND TEMPS NOT MUCH ABOVE 90..IF THAT.

THUNDER AFTER MONDAY MORNING WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
CASCADES AND IN THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE MODELS INDICATE A BIT BETTER MARINE INTRUSION INLAND ON TUESDAY
MORNING AND WENT WITH MORE MORNING CLOUDS IN THE NORTH VALLEY THEN.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE NORTH VALLEY AND MID TO
UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY THUNDER ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES...BUT LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAKES THAT NOT CERTAIN EITHER. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THE GENERAL TREND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
TOWARDS COOLER WEATHER. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRUSHING BY THE REGION LATE TUESDAY...BUT KEEPS MOST OF THE
ENERGY TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR LATE TUESDAY DUE TO SOME LINGERING
INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES RETURN TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS BY
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS
SUCH...HAVE USED A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON
CASCADES. /64
&&

.AVIATION...VFR INLAND. A RIBBON OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO HUG THE
COASTLINE AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF MOVING ONSHORE AFTER BURNED OFF THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE EARLIER. STILL FEEL THERE IS A MODERATE OR BETTER
CHANCE OF IT RETURNING INLAND THIS EVENING WITH IMPACTS LIKELY
LIMITED TO KAST AND KONP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. CONVECTION DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM EARLIER ARE REMAINING HIGH LEVEL WITH RADAR INDICATING SOME
VIRGA FROM THEM. NEW CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE SISKIYOUS AND
THE SOUTH CASCADES WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER
THE CENTRAL CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BETTER CHANCE FOR
IMPACTS TO THE TAF TERMINALS WILL HAPPEN OVERNIGHT FROM ADDITIONAL
DEBRIS DRIFTING NORTH BRINGING ALTO CUMULUS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWER
POTENTIAL. DEEPER CONVECTION BECOMES POSSIBLE CLOSER TOWARD 03/00Z
FOR INLAND AREAS INCLUDING KEUG AND NORTH THROUGH KSLE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH DENSER MID-LEVEL
POCKETS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
LONGER RANGE EASTERN APPROACHES THROUGH 02/02Z. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PRESSURE PATTERN.
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHERLY COMPONENT WINDS OVER THE WATERS WITH
VARYING DEGREES OF STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENT SET OF
WINDS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON AND EVENING GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS ACROSS THE
FULL SET OF WATERS. THE INNER WATER SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF AROUND
SUNSET WHILE THE OUTER WATERS CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL
SET OF GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
EASING BELOW CRITERIA FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE SPLIT THE
ADVISORY FOR WINDS TO BETTER REFLECT EXPECTED CONDITIONS AND ALSO FOR
WHAT REALITY HAS BROUGHT THE PAST 48 HOUR.

THIS LONGER TIME FRAME OF PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS IS PRODUCING
CHOPPY SEAS AND HAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND THE 7 FT SQUARE SEA MINIMUM
CRITERIA. REALITY IS SHOWING SEAS ABOUT A FOOT BELOW WW3 GUIDANCE SO
HAVE DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AT THIS TIME
BUT STILL FEEL LIKE WE ARE WALKING A FINE LINE. OTHERWISE /JBONK
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 05Z FOR
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 5-6. MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER
THE NORTH ZONES...NORTH OF A LINE FROM AROUND BENTON COUNTY EAST TO
MT. JEFFERSON. MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FILTERING INTO THE SOUTH
ZONES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 4 VALUES...HELPING TO
REDUCE POTENTIAL COLUMN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. ONE OTHER NEAR-TERM
CONCERN IS LIGHTNING IN THE FAR SE PART OF THE AREA. AT 22Z A FEW
STRIKES NOTED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST NEAR WILLAMETTE PASS. FEEL ANY
CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ZONE 608 AND PERHAPS
THE EAST HALF OF ZONE 606. CONVECTIVE THREAT SPREADS NORTH AND WEST
SUNDAY AS SOUTH FLOW ALOFT FURTHER NORTH AND 500 MB RIDGE AXIS
GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTH AS WELL. HAVE SPREAD MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE S WA CASCADES SUN EVENING THROUGH MON MORNING. WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS FOR SUN...BUT FOR NOW FEEL LIKE
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG. ALSO...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER THE S HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY WILL TEND TO BECOME
WETTER DUE TO THE LONGER-DURATION MOIST SOUTH FLOW. CONVECTIVE
THREAT GETS PUSHED EAST OF THE CASCADES MON NIGHT AND TUE...WITH ANY
THREAT TUE NEAR THE CREST OF ZONE 608. WEISHAAR
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD
     RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST RANGE-MT. HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE
     CREST-NORTH OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE-
     WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST-WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS
     IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-
     NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

WA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK COUNTY
     LOWLANDS-EAST WILLAPA HILLS-EXTREME SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.
&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 012228
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
327 PM PDT SAT AUG  1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
AROUND 590 DM WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL STEER SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
WESTERN OREGON THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE OREGON CASCADES
INITIALLY...WITH SOME DEBRIS MOISTURE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE CASCADES
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A SLOWLY
DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THE
THERMAL TROUGH EAST OF THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY WILL BRING GRADUAL
COOLING TO THE AREA AFTER TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR MORE COOLING AND
POSSIBLY EVEN SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SET UP THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO
HAVE A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH 590
DM 500MB HEIGHTS INTO NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.
THERE IS A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST WITH NORTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE COAST. AN UPPER LOW IS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW SPREADING MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORM
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRAS TOWARD WESTERN OREGON...WITH
SOME LIGHTNING NEAR MEDFORD THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH OREGON COAST WITH DEEPER STRATUS
THERE...BUT THE MODELS INDICATED THESE WINDS WILL HAVE TROUBLE
REACHING OUR COAST VERY SOON DESPITE THE FAVORABLE WIND FLOW ALOFT.

WE ARE SEEING ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 23 DEG
C TODAY...SIMILAR TO THOSE FRIDAY. WE ARE SEEING A BIT OF THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TO OUR SOUTH SPREADING INTO LANE COUNTY. WE ARE
RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BEHIND FRIDAY AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL
SHOULD GET WELL UP INTO THE 90S AND POSSIBLE TOUCH 100 AT A FEW
SPOTS. REGARDING THE THUNDERSTORM DEBRIS MOVING NORTHWARD...THE
MODELS ALL SAY THE MAIN CHANCE OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE IN THE CASCADES AND HAVE CONTINUED THAT IDEA FOR NOW
BUT IT WILL BARE WATCHING.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SO NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN SINCE LAST
WEEKEND. QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LOCATED. THE MODELS SEEM PRETTY CERTAIN THAT THEY WILL SPREAD FARTHER
NORTH THROUGH THE OREGON CASCADES ON SUNDAY...BUT FEEL THAT THERE IS
A CHANCE TOWARD THE COAST RANGE ON SUNDAY. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE MORNING FORECAST ALONG THOSE LINES AND WILL STAY WITH THAT IDEA
IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

THE MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN NEVADA SPREADING
NORTH THROUGH WESTERN OREGON AND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...LIKELY MODULATED BY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY SPREAD THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES. THIS COULD BE A BETTER TRIGGER FOR SOME
CONVECTION IN THE VALLEYS AS WELL AND CLOSE TO THE COAST RANGE.

THE MODELS SHOW THE THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING BACK OVER THE WESTERN
VALLEY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOVING EAST OF THE CASCADES ON
SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE. AFTER POSSIBLY FLIRTING
WITH 100 AGAIN IN MANY INLAND AREAS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPS
INLAND WILL PROBABLY FALL INTO 90 TO 95 RANGE ON SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME MARINE
CLOUDS REACHING PORTLAND AND EUGENE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
INLAND TEMPS NOT MUCH ABOVE 90..IF THAT.

THUNDER AFTER MONDAY MORNING WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
CASCADES AND IN THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE MODELS INDICATE A BIT BETTER MARINE INTRUSION INLAND ON TUESDAY
MORNING AND WENT WITH MORE MORNING CLOUDS IN THE NORTH VALLEY THEN.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE NORTH VALLEY AND MID TO
UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY THUNDER ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES...BUT LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAKES THAT NOT CERTAIN EITHER. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THE GENERAL TREND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
TOWARDS COOLER WEATHER. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRUSHING BY THE REGION LATE TUESDAY...BUT KEEPS MOST OF THE
ENERGY TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR LATE TUESDAY DUE TO SOME LINGERING
INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES RETURN TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS BY
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS
SUCH...HAVE USED A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON
CASCADES. /64
&&

.AVIATION...VFR INLAND. A RIBBON OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO HUG THE
COASTLINE AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF MOVING ONSHORE AFTER BURNED OFF THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE EARLIER. STILL FEEL THERE IS A MODERATE OR BETTER
CHANCE OF IT RETURNING INLAND THIS EVENING WITH IMPACTS LIKELY
LIMITED TO KAST AND KONP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. CONVECTION DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM EARLIER ARE REMAINING HIGH LEVEL WITH RADAR INDICATING SOME
VIRGA FROM THEM. NEW CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE SISKIYOUS AND
THE SOUTH CASCADES WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER
THE CENTRAL CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BETTER CHANCE FOR
IMPACTS TO THE TAF TERMINALS WILL HAPPEN OVERNIGHT FROM ADDITIONAL
DEBRIS DRIFTING NORTH BRINGING ALTO CUMULUS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWER
POTENTIAL. DEEPER CONVECTION BECOMES POSSIBLE CLOSER TOWARD 03/00Z
FOR INLAND AREAS INCLUDING KEUG AND NORTH THROUGH KSLE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH DENSER MID-LEVEL
POCKETS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
LONGER RANGE EASTERN APPROACHES THROUGH 02/02Z. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PRESSURE PATTERN.
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHERLY COMPONENT WINDS OVER THE WATERS WITH
VARYING DEGREES OF STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENT SET OF
WINDS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON AND EVENING GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS ACROSS THE
FULL SET OF WATERS. THE INNER WATER SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF AROUND
SUNSET WHILE THE OUTER WATERS CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL
SET OF GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
EASING BELOW CRITERIA FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE SPLIT THE
ADVISORY FOR WINDS TO BETTER REFLECT EXPECTED CONDITIONS AND ALSO FOR
WHAT REALITY HAS BROUGHT THE PAST 48 HOUR.

THIS LONGER TIME FRAME OF PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS IS PRODUCING
CHOPPY SEAS AND HAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND THE 7 FT SQUARE SEA MINIMUM
CRITERIA. REALITY IS SHOWING SEAS ABOUT A FOOT BELOW WW3 GUIDANCE SO
HAVE DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AT THIS TIME
BUT STILL FEEL LIKE WE ARE WALKING A FINE LINE. OTHERWISE /JBONK
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 05Z FOR
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 5-6. MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER
THE NORTH ZONES...NORTH OF A LINE FROM AROUND BENTON COUNTY EAST TO
MT. JEFFERSON. MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FILTERING INTO THE SOUTH
ZONES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH-LEVEL HAINES 4 VALUES...HELPING TO
REDUCE POTENTIAL COLUMN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. ONE OTHER NEAR-TERM
CONCERN IS LIGHTNING IN THE FAR SE PART OF THE AREA. AT 22Z A FEW
STRIKES NOTED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST NEAR WILLAMETTE PASS. FEEL ANY
CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ZONE 608 AND PERHAPS
THE EAST HALF OF ZONE 606. CONVECTIVE THREAT SPREADS NORTH AND WEST
SUNDAY AS SOUTH FLOW ALOFT FURTHER NORTH AND 500 MB RIDGE AXIS
GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTH AS WELL. HAVE SPREAD MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE S WA CASCADES SUN EVENING THROUGH MON MORNING. WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS FOR SUN...BUT FOR NOW FEEL LIKE
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG. ALSO...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER THE S HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY WILL TEND TO BECOME
WETTER DUE TO THE LONGER-DURATION MOIST SOUTH FLOW. CONVECTIVE
THREAT GETS PUSHED EAST OF THE CASCADES MON NIGHT AND TUE...WITH ANY
THREAT TUE NEAR THE CREST OF ZONE 608. WEISHAAR
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD
     RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST RANGE-MT. HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE
     CREST-NORTH OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE-
     WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST-WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS
     IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-
     NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

WA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-WESTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK COUNTY
     LOWLANDS-EAST WILLAPA HILLS-EXTREME SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.
&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 012123
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
223 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Expect a very hot weekend with afternoon temperatures in the mid
90s to near 105. The ongoing drought combined with high heat and
low humidity will raise concerns for wildfires the next several
days. A cold front will bring temperatures back closer to average
on Tuesday. Temperatures Wednesday through Friday will likely be
at or below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday: No changes to the fcst outside of increasing
the areal coverage of smoke near the Cascades. Visibilities will
likely remain obscured to less than one mile for certainly the
immediate Lake Chelan area from the Wolverine fire. Low temps were
warmed a bit also in these smoke-filled valleys based on low temps
this morning.bz

Sunday night through Wednesday: Models are back in pretty good
agreement of the large scale synoptic pattern through the first
part of the work week. They are showing a wave move up from the
south Sunday night through Monday. With this wave will be an
increase in moisture and some very weak instability. Have added
some sprinkles and thunderstorms to the forecast. Expect the area
of sprinkles and thunderstorms to move up into the central
Cascades early Monday morning and then spread north and east
through the day and out of the area by Tuesday morning. With the
additional cloud cover Sunday night and Monday night have
increased temperatures several degrees to about 6-10 degrees above
average for this time of the year. Tuesday and Wednesday we
transition into a more west or northwesterly flow as an upper
level low pressure system moves into central British Columbia. The
track of this low is indicative of breezy winds in the Cascades,
Columbia Basin and into the Palouse and Spokane/CDA areas (about
10-20 mph). The best chance of showers or thunderstorms will
reside across the mountains. Daytime Temperatures will finally
drop to around average for Tuesday and maybe even below average
for Wednesday. /Nisbet

Wednesday night through Saturday: Expect relatively cool
temperatures and a few opportunities for showers mainly around
the mountains. Model agreement regarding the precise evolution of
the pattern degrades with a lack of solid consistency. Loose
agreement suggests an upper trough will continue to migrate across
the Pacific NW early this period. This is followed by brief
shortwave ridging before another trough approaches. Additionally
the low spinning off the CA coast moves inland and potentially by
southeast WA and southern ID late next week. In short,
shower/t-storm chances will linger around the Cascades and
northern mountains Thursday and return here and toward the Blues
through central Panhandle Saturday with approach of the next
trough from the west and possible wave approaching from the south.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal early this
period, warming back closer to an above normal by late in the
period. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected for most sites for at
least the next 24 hours. All locations should see some smoke that
doesn`t restrict vsbys. The exception will be for the KMWH/KEPH
area late tonight and into midday Sunday where MVFR vsbys from
smoke are possible. High pressure across the region means only
light diurnal winds through Sunday. Gap winds however will
increase at KEAT after 02z but remain in the 9-12kt range.bz


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        63  97  70  94  67  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  96  63  94  64  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Pullman        56  97  62  92  60  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       66 103  72  98  69  95 /   0   0  10  10  20  10
Colville       56  99  62  95  62  89 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Sandpoint      50  95  58  91  60  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Kellogg        58  95  58  94  61  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Moses Lake     59  99  69  97  64  93 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee      68  98  76  96  70  91 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Omak           60 100  70  98  64  92 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 012123
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
223 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Expect a very hot weekend with afternoon temperatures in the mid
90s to near 105. The ongoing drought combined with high heat and
low humidity will raise concerns for wildfires the next several
days. A cold front will bring temperatures back closer to average
on Tuesday. Temperatures Wednesday through Friday will likely be
at or below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday: No changes to the fcst outside of increasing
the areal coverage of smoke near the Cascades. Visibilities will
likely remain obscured to less than one mile for certainly the
immediate Lake Chelan area from the Wolverine fire. Low temps were
warmed a bit also in these smoke-filled valleys based on low temps
this morning.bz

Sunday night through Wednesday: Models are back in pretty good
agreement of the large scale synoptic pattern through the first
part of the work week. They are showing a wave move up from the
south Sunday night through Monday. With this wave will be an
increase in moisture and some very weak instability. Have added
some sprinkles and thunderstorms to the forecast. Expect the area
of sprinkles and thunderstorms to move up into the central
Cascades early Monday morning and then spread north and east
through the day and out of the area by Tuesday morning. With the
additional cloud cover Sunday night and Monday night have
increased temperatures several degrees to about 6-10 degrees above
average for this time of the year. Tuesday and Wednesday we
transition into a more west or northwesterly flow as an upper
level low pressure system moves into central British Columbia. The
track of this low is indicative of breezy winds in the Cascades,
Columbia Basin and into the Palouse and Spokane/CDA areas (about
10-20 mph). The best chance of showers or thunderstorms will
reside across the mountains. Daytime Temperatures will finally
drop to around average for Tuesday and maybe even below average
for Wednesday. /Nisbet

Wednesday night through Saturday: Expect relatively cool
temperatures and a few opportunities for showers mainly around
the mountains. Model agreement regarding the precise evolution of
the pattern degrades with a lack of solid consistency. Loose
agreement suggests an upper trough will continue to migrate across
the Pacific NW early this period. This is followed by brief
shortwave ridging before another trough approaches. Additionally
the low spinning off the CA coast moves inland and potentially by
southeast WA and southern ID late next week. In short,
shower/t-storm chances will linger around the Cascades and
northern mountains Thursday and return here and toward the Blues
through central Panhandle Saturday with approach of the next
trough from the west and possible wave approaching from the south.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal early this
period, warming back closer to an above normal by late in the
period. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected for most sites for at
least the next 24 hours. All locations should see some smoke that
doesn`t restrict vsbys. The exception will be for the KMWH/KEPH
area late tonight and into midday Sunday where MVFR vsbys from
smoke are possible. High pressure across the region means only
light diurnal winds through Sunday. Gap winds however will
increase at KEAT after 02z but remain in the 9-12kt range.bz


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        63  97  70  94  67  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  96  63  94  64  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Pullman        56  97  62  92  60  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       66 103  72  98  69  95 /   0   0  10  10  20  10
Colville       56  99  62  95  62  89 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Sandpoint      50  95  58  91  60  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Kellogg        58  95  58  94  61  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Moses Lake     59  99  69  97  64  93 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee      68  98  76  96  70  91 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Omak           60 100  70  98  64  92 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 012123
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
223 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Expect a very hot weekend with afternoon temperatures in the mid
90s to near 105. The ongoing drought combined with high heat and
low humidity will raise concerns for wildfires the next several
days. A cold front will bring temperatures back closer to average
on Tuesday. Temperatures Wednesday through Friday will likely be
at or below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday: No changes to the fcst outside of increasing
the areal coverage of smoke near the Cascades. Visibilities will
likely remain obscured to less than one mile for certainly the
immediate Lake Chelan area from the Wolverine fire. Low temps were
warmed a bit also in these smoke-filled valleys based on low temps
this morning.bz

Sunday night through Wednesday: Models are back in pretty good
agreement of the large scale synoptic pattern through the first
part of the work week. They are showing a wave move up from the
south Sunday night through Monday. With this wave will be an
increase in moisture and some very weak instability. Have added
some sprinkles and thunderstorms to the forecast. Expect the area
of sprinkles and thunderstorms to move up into the central
Cascades early Monday morning and then spread north and east
through the day and out of the area by Tuesday morning. With the
additional cloud cover Sunday night and Monday night have
increased temperatures several degrees to about 6-10 degrees above
average for this time of the year. Tuesday and Wednesday we
transition into a more west or northwesterly flow as an upper
level low pressure system moves into central British Columbia. The
track of this low is indicative of breezy winds in the Cascades,
Columbia Basin and into the Palouse and Spokane/CDA areas (about
10-20 mph). The best chance of showers or thunderstorms will
reside across the mountains. Daytime Temperatures will finally
drop to around average for Tuesday and maybe even below average
for Wednesday. /Nisbet

Wednesday night through Saturday: Expect relatively cool
temperatures and a few opportunities for showers mainly around
the mountains. Model agreement regarding the precise evolution of
the pattern degrades with a lack of solid consistency. Loose
agreement suggests an upper trough will continue to migrate across
the Pacific NW early this period. This is followed by brief
shortwave ridging before another trough approaches. Additionally
the low spinning off the CA coast moves inland and potentially by
southeast WA and southern ID late next week. In short,
shower/t-storm chances will linger around the Cascades and
northern mountains Thursday and return here and toward the Blues
through central Panhandle Saturday with approach of the next
trough from the west and possible wave approaching from the south.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal early this
period, warming back closer to an above normal by late in the
period. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected for most sites for at
least the next 24 hours. All locations should see some smoke that
doesn`t restrict vsbys. The exception will be for the KMWH/KEPH
area late tonight and into midday Sunday where MVFR vsbys from
smoke are possible. High pressure across the region means only
light diurnal winds through Sunday. Gap winds however will
increase at KEAT after 02z but remain in the 9-12kt range.bz


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        63  97  70  94  67  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  96  63  94  64  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Pullman        56  97  62  92  60  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       66 103  72  98  69  95 /   0   0  10  10  20  10
Colville       56  99  62  95  62  89 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Sandpoint      50  95  58  91  60  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Kellogg        58  95  58  94  61  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Moses Lake     59  99  69  97  64  93 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee      68  98  76  96  70  91 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Omak           60 100  70  98  64  92 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 012123
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
223 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Expect a very hot weekend with afternoon temperatures in the mid
90s to near 105. The ongoing drought combined with high heat and
low humidity will raise concerns for wildfires the next several
days. A cold front will bring temperatures back closer to average
on Tuesday. Temperatures Wednesday through Friday will likely be
at or below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday: No changes to the fcst outside of increasing
the areal coverage of smoke near the Cascades. Visibilities will
likely remain obscured to less than one mile for certainly the
immediate Lake Chelan area from the Wolverine fire. Low temps were
warmed a bit also in these smoke-filled valleys based on low temps
this morning.bz

Sunday night through Wednesday: Models are back in pretty good
agreement of the large scale synoptic pattern through the first
part of the work week. They are showing a wave move up from the
south Sunday night through Monday. With this wave will be an
increase in moisture and some very weak instability. Have added
some sprinkles and thunderstorms to the forecast. Expect the area
of sprinkles and thunderstorms to move up into the central
Cascades early Monday morning and then spread north and east
through the day and out of the area by Tuesday morning. With the
additional cloud cover Sunday night and Monday night have
increased temperatures several degrees to about 6-10 degrees above
average for this time of the year. Tuesday and Wednesday we
transition into a more west or northwesterly flow as an upper
level low pressure system moves into central British Columbia. The
track of this low is indicative of breezy winds in the Cascades,
Columbia Basin and into the Palouse and Spokane/CDA areas (about
10-20 mph). The best chance of showers or thunderstorms will
reside across the mountains. Daytime Temperatures will finally
drop to around average for Tuesday and maybe even below average
for Wednesday. /Nisbet

Wednesday night through Saturday: Expect relatively cool
temperatures and a few opportunities for showers mainly around
the mountains. Model agreement regarding the precise evolution of
the pattern degrades with a lack of solid consistency. Loose
agreement suggests an upper trough will continue to migrate across
the Pacific NW early this period. This is followed by brief
shortwave ridging before another trough approaches. Additionally
the low spinning off the CA coast moves inland and potentially by
southeast WA and southern ID late next week. In short,
shower/t-storm chances will linger around the Cascades and
northern mountains Thursday and return here and toward the Blues
through central Panhandle Saturday with approach of the next
trough from the west and possible wave approaching from the south.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal early this
period, warming back closer to an above normal by late in the
period. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected for most sites for at
least the next 24 hours. All locations should see some smoke that
doesn`t restrict vsbys. The exception will be for the KMWH/KEPH
area late tonight and into midday Sunday where MVFR vsbys from
smoke are possible. High pressure across the region means only
light diurnal winds through Sunday. Gap winds however will
increase at KEAT after 02z but remain in the 9-12kt range.bz


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        63  97  70  94  67  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  96  63  94  64  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Pullman        56  97  62  92  60  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       66 103  72  98  69  95 /   0   0  10  10  20  10
Colville       56  99  62  95  62  89 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Sandpoint      50  95  58  91  60  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Kellogg        58  95  58  94  61  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Moses Lake     59  99  69  97  64  93 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee      68  98  76  96  70  91 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Omak           60 100  70  98  64  92 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




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