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000
FXUS66 KPQR 252146
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
246 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN
WASHINGTON TODAY. MODERATE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE COASTAL DRIZZLE GIVING WAY TO PARTIAL AFTERNOON
CLEARING ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH. THERE IS A THREAT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG CREST OF THE S WASHINGTON
CASCADES TODAY AND TUE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT INTO IDAHO LATE TUE INTO WED...ALLOWING HIGH
PRES TO APPROACH THE PAC NW. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND WINDS
WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY BEGINNING WED. THIS WILL RESULT IN FEWER
CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE CASCADE CREST EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEKEND MAY BRING A RETURN TO THE
MARINE LAYER AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN WA TODAY. ONSHORE FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW BROUGHT
EXTENSIVE MARINE CLOUD COVER ONSHORE THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS ARE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CLEARING
OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHER HALF OF THE FCST AREA. EXPECT THE CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SUN BREAKS DEVELOPING FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR
NW PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT OF SUN OVER
THE CASCADES TODAY...AND A FEW ECHOES ARE NOW SHOWING UP ON THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...SO WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE S WA CASCADE
CREST INTO THIS EVENING.

EXPECT TUE WILL BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS
INTO EASTERN WA AND THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. BASED ON THE LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF MARINE
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS JUST OFFSHORE THAT SHOULD PUSH INLAND TONIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING. LIKE TODAY...EXPECT THE CLOUDS AND PATCHY COAST AND
COAST RANGE DRIZZLE TO BE AROUND FOR THE MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY
BURN OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MARINE LAYER
MAY BE A BIT MORE SHALLOW...SO THE CLOUDS MAY BURN OFF JUST AN HOUR
OR TWO FASTER THAN TODAY WITH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER. THE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY FOCUSED ALONG THE S WA
CASCADES...SO WILL KEEP A THUNDER THREAT IN THE FCST NEAR THE CREST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

BY WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE FURTHER EAST INTO IDAHO. THIS WILL
ALLOW A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES TO PUSH TOWARD THE PAC NW...RESULTING IN
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND AN EVEN SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER.
EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE A MORNING MARINE STRATUS PUSH WED
MORNING...BUT THE THICKNESS OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE LESS. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS. FCST HIGHS OVER THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS ARE INTO THE MID 70S. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY ALONG THE CASCADE CREST WED...AND WITH THE
700 MB WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM COULD TRY
TO RIDE ALONG THE CREST INSTEAD OF DRIFTING EASTWARD.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST ON THU. EXPECT A
WEAKER MARINE PUSH THU MORNING...AND MOST OF THE FCST AREA
SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 80 FOR THE MANY INTERIOR LOWLAND
LOCATIONS...WITH IS A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. PYLE

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
REGION WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE BRINING MARINE
CLOUDS INLAND OVERNIGHT...BUT STRATUS SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART CLEAR
OUT BY MIDDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES INLAND TO REACH INTO THE 70S OR
LOW 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE CASCADES COULD SEE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR EVEN POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST A LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WHICH WILL DISRUPT THE PERSISTENT PATTERN. SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL LIKELY SEE A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER. BECAUSE OF HOW FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD THIS SYSTEM IS...TIMING COULD VERY WELL CHANGE AS WE APPROACH
THIS WEEKEND. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS STARTING TO SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON. WE MAY SEE SOME THIN SPOTS OR EVEN SEE THE CLOUDS GO
BRIEFLY SCATTERED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A LOW INLAND OVER
WASHINGTON AND A LOT OF STRATOCUMULUS OFF THE COAST THAT WILL
ADVECT ONSHORE. EXPECT A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS MOST AREAS TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO VFR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WE MAY EVEN SEE MORE AREAS GO SCATTERED IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS ARE LIFTING TO VFR 030 TO 035 THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME BKN IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY BECOME SCATTERED FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS EITHER SIDE OF
00Z. CIGS SOLIDIFY AROUND 035 IN THE EVENING NEAR 26/03Z THEN
GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT CIGS TO AGAIN
LIFT TO VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY GOING TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS. PT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
WITH LOWER PRESSURE WELL INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS AT TIMES. MIXED SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK...WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
TIMES DUE TO A FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL MIXED WITH A LONGER PERIOD
MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 252146
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
246 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN
WASHINGTON TODAY. MODERATE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE COASTAL DRIZZLE GIVING WAY TO PARTIAL AFTERNOON
CLEARING ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH. THERE IS A THREAT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG CREST OF THE S WASHINGTON
CASCADES TODAY AND TUE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT INTO IDAHO LATE TUE INTO WED...ALLOWING HIGH
PRES TO APPROACH THE PAC NW. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND WINDS
WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY BEGINNING WED. THIS WILL RESULT IN FEWER
CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE CASCADE CREST EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEKEND MAY BRING A RETURN TO THE
MARINE LAYER AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN WA TODAY. ONSHORE FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW BROUGHT
EXTENSIVE MARINE CLOUD COVER ONSHORE THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS ARE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CLEARING
OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHER HALF OF THE FCST AREA. EXPECT THE CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SUN BREAKS DEVELOPING FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR
NW PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT OF SUN OVER
THE CASCADES TODAY...AND A FEW ECHOES ARE NOW SHOWING UP ON THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...SO WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE S WA CASCADE
CREST INTO THIS EVENING.

EXPECT TUE WILL BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS
INTO EASTERN WA AND THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. BASED ON THE LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF MARINE
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS JUST OFFSHORE THAT SHOULD PUSH INLAND TONIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING. LIKE TODAY...EXPECT THE CLOUDS AND PATCHY COAST AND
COAST RANGE DRIZZLE TO BE AROUND FOR THE MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY
BURN OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MARINE LAYER
MAY BE A BIT MORE SHALLOW...SO THE CLOUDS MAY BURN OFF JUST AN HOUR
OR TWO FASTER THAN TODAY WITH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER. THE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY FOCUSED ALONG THE S WA
CASCADES...SO WILL KEEP A THUNDER THREAT IN THE FCST NEAR THE CREST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

BY WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE FURTHER EAST INTO IDAHO. THIS WILL
ALLOW A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES TO PUSH TOWARD THE PAC NW...RESULTING IN
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND AN EVEN SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER.
EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE A MORNING MARINE STRATUS PUSH WED
MORNING...BUT THE THICKNESS OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE LESS. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS. FCST HIGHS OVER THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS ARE INTO THE MID 70S. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY ALONG THE CASCADE CREST WED...AND WITH THE
700 MB WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM COULD TRY
TO RIDE ALONG THE CREST INSTEAD OF DRIFTING EASTWARD.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST ON THU. EXPECT A
WEAKER MARINE PUSH THU MORNING...AND MOST OF THE FCST AREA
SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 80 FOR THE MANY INTERIOR LOWLAND
LOCATIONS...WITH IS A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. PYLE

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
REGION WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE BRINING MARINE
CLOUDS INLAND OVERNIGHT...BUT STRATUS SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART CLEAR
OUT BY MIDDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES INLAND TO REACH INTO THE 70S OR
LOW 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE CASCADES COULD SEE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR EVEN POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST A LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WHICH WILL DISRUPT THE PERSISTENT PATTERN. SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL LIKELY SEE A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER. BECAUSE OF HOW FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD THIS SYSTEM IS...TIMING COULD VERY WELL CHANGE AS WE APPROACH
THIS WEEKEND. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS STARTING TO SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON. WE MAY SEE SOME THIN SPOTS OR EVEN SEE THE CLOUDS GO
BRIEFLY SCATTERED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A LOW INLAND OVER
WASHINGTON AND A LOT OF STRATOCUMULUS OFF THE COAST THAT WILL
ADVECT ONSHORE. EXPECT A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS MOST AREAS TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO VFR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WE MAY EVEN SEE MORE AREAS GO SCATTERED IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS ARE LIFTING TO VFR 030 TO 035 THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME BKN IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY BECOME SCATTERED FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS EITHER SIDE OF
00Z. CIGS SOLIDIFY AROUND 035 IN THE EVENING NEAR 26/03Z THEN
GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT CIGS TO AGAIN
LIFT TO VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY GOING TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS. PT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
WITH LOWER PRESSURE WELL INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS AT TIMES. MIXED SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK...WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
TIMES DUE TO A FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL MIXED WITH A LONGER PERIOD
MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 252146
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
246 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN
WASHINGTON TODAY. MODERATE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE COASTAL DRIZZLE GIVING WAY TO PARTIAL AFTERNOON
CLEARING ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH. THERE IS A THREAT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG CREST OF THE S WASHINGTON
CASCADES TODAY AND TUE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT INTO IDAHO LATE TUE INTO WED...ALLOWING HIGH
PRES TO APPROACH THE PAC NW. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND WINDS
WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY BEGINNING WED. THIS WILL RESULT IN FEWER
CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE CASCADE CREST EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEKEND MAY BRING A RETURN TO THE
MARINE LAYER AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN WA TODAY. ONSHORE FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW BROUGHT
EXTENSIVE MARINE CLOUD COVER ONSHORE THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS ARE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CLEARING
OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHER HALF OF THE FCST AREA. EXPECT THE CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SUN BREAKS DEVELOPING FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR
NW PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT OF SUN OVER
THE CASCADES TODAY...AND A FEW ECHOES ARE NOW SHOWING UP ON THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...SO WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE S WA CASCADE
CREST INTO THIS EVENING.

EXPECT TUE WILL BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS
INTO EASTERN WA AND THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. BASED ON THE LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF MARINE
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS JUST OFFSHORE THAT SHOULD PUSH INLAND TONIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING. LIKE TODAY...EXPECT THE CLOUDS AND PATCHY COAST AND
COAST RANGE DRIZZLE TO BE AROUND FOR THE MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY
BURN OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MARINE LAYER
MAY BE A BIT MORE SHALLOW...SO THE CLOUDS MAY BURN OFF JUST AN HOUR
OR TWO FASTER THAN TODAY WITH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER. THE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY FOCUSED ALONG THE S WA
CASCADES...SO WILL KEEP A THUNDER THREAT IN THE FCST NEAR THE CREST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

BY WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE FURTHER EAST INTO IDAHO. THIS WILL
ALLOW A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES TO PUSH TOWARD THE PAC NW...RESULTING IN
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND AN EVEN SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER.
EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE A MORNING MARINE STRATUS PUSH WED
MORNING...BUT THE THICKNESS OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE LESS. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS. FCST HIGHS OVER THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS ARE INTO THE MID 70S. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY ALONG THE CASCADE CREST WED...AND WITH THE
700 MB WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM COULD TRY
TO RIDE ALONG THE CREST INSTEAD OF DRIFTING EASTWARD.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST ON THU. EXPECT A
WEAKER MARINE PUSH THU MORNING...AND MOST OF THE FCST AREA
SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 80 FOR THE MANY INTERIOR LOWLAND
LOCATIONS...WITH IS A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. PYLE

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
REGION WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE BRINING MARINE
CLOUDS INLAND OVERNIGHT...BUT STRATUS SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART CLEAR
OUT BY MIDDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES INLAND TO REACH INTO THE 70S OR
LOW 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE CASCADES COULD SEE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR EVEN POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST A LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WHICH WILL DISRUPT THE PERSISTENT PATTERN. SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL LIKELY SEE A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER. BECAUSE OF HOW FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD THIS SYSTEM IS...TIMING COULD VERY WELL CHANGE AS WE APPROACH
THIS WEEKEND. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS STARTING TO SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON. WE MAY SEE SOME THIN SPOTS OR EVEN SEE THE CLOUDS GO
BRIEFLY SCATTERED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A LOW INLAND OVER
WASHINGTON AND A LOT OF STRATOCUMULUS OFF THE COAST THAT WILL
ADVECT ONSHORE. EXPECT A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS MOST AREAS TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO VFR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WE MAY EVEN SEE MORE AREAS GO SCATTERED IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS ARE LIFTING TO VFR 030 TO 035 THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME BKN IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY BECOME SCATTERED FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS EITHER SIDE OF
00Z. CIGS SOLIDIFY AROUND 035 IN THE EVENING NEAR 26/03Z THEN
GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT CIGS TO AGAIN
LIFT TO VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY GOING TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS. PT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
WITH LOWER PRESSURE WELL INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS AT TIMES. MIXED SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK...WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
TIMES DUE TO A FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL MIXED WITH A LONGER PERIOD
MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KOTX 252114
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
214 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system will bring scattered afternoon
and evening thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest through
Wednesday. Locally heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and small
hail will be possible the next several days. Low pressure will
gradually depart by Thursday, bringing a decrease in precipitation
chances, but chances may increase again by early next week across
the region. Temperatures warm back above normal from Wednesday
into the end of the week, with highs pushing into 80s Thursday
onward.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Tuesday: The Inland Nortwest will be under the gun for
unsettled late spring weather as an upper level low slowly
meanders across the region. Anticipate showers and thunderstorms
especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures
will remain mild but not as warm as previously experienced, and it
will be muggy with light winds. Currently the mid level frontal
band will slowly depart from Idaho panhandle into Montana by this
evening. Then the track of the low center will help dictate the
path and coverage of convection. Currently the low center is
residing just north of the Cascades in BC as a shortwave rotates
southward and is helping ignite convection across the Okanogan
Highlands and upper Columbai Basin. This activity will gradually
spread eastward. The main concerns with the thunderstorms will be
frequent lightning, heavy downpours, small hail and gusty winds.
This activity will sweep eastward toward the northeast Washington,
north Idaho and Spokane/Coeur d`Alene area early this evening and
overnight as the low center takes this similar path. The low will
gradually fill and remain parked over eastern Washington through
much of the day on Tuesday. With pwats remaining near three
quarters of an inch and circulation spinning over the region,
anticiapte another round of thunderstorms rotating from east to
west across the northern mountains. This will bring a renewed
concern with heavy downpours as thunderstorms increase during the
afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday. /rfox.

Tuesday night through Monday: Low pressure exits and temperatures
begin to warm, but the threat of showers and thunderstorms
continues. First between Tuesday night and Wednesday night low
pressure migrates from the southeast WA/OR border to the
ID/southwest MT border. Without any real influx of drier air,
PWATs remain around 150% of normal (or 0.50 to 0.75 inches). In
addition there are pockets of elevated instability (CAPE and high
level total totals) during the night and early morning and
expansion of SBCAPE in the afternoon. The north-northeast flow on
the backside of the low and smaller scale impulses in that flow
will work with the moisture and instability to bring the threat of
showers and thunderstorms. These will be most numerous in the
afternoon hours. However there are two limiting factors. First the
large-scale pattern shows broader subsidence in the DIV-Q fields,
which may limit coverage away from the higher terrain.
Additionally, models show there is modest CIN across the deeper
Columbia Basin to overcome during the afternoon.

With the lack of significant sheer most storms are not expected
to be well-organized and without a strong steering flow it the
850-700mb layer, storms are expected to be relatively slow-moving.
So the main concern will remain locally heavy downpours and if any
cross a burn scar we will have to monitor for possible flash
flooding or debris flows. Storms may also produce some small hail
and gusty winds, and perhaps abundant lightning.

From Thursday to Monday the region transitions from a northerly
flow to west-southwest flow. Another low drops south across BC and
a deeper trough deepens off the Pacific coast. Impulses ride into
the region in this evolving flow. The precise timing and track of
these features is apt to change over the next several days. With
instability expanding each afternoon there will be some threat of
showers and thunderstorm each day, especially around the mountains
through Friday and potentially expanding to a broader area going
into early next week as models try to bring more a substantial
trough in. This latter set-up will be monitored for possible
organized/stronger thunderstorms for early next week, but it is
too far out to have high confidence yet. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A mid level cold front will exit north idaho by midday,
allowing the band of showers with embedded thunderstorms to push
east into Montana. The moist boundary layer and dewpoints in the
mid 40s to lower 50s will aid in the redevelopment of convection
behind the front. The best areas for convection will be across the
northern mountains, but as the storms drift south-southeast,
expect some activity reaching the TAF sites this afternoon and
early evening. Isolated to scattered showers will persist over
much of the region through 18Z Tuesday as the low center remains
over the region. /rfox

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  70  52  75  54  81 /  60  60  30  30  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  48  70  48  75  51  80 /  60  60  30  40  20  20
Pullman        45  68  48  71  49  78 /  20  40  30  40  20  20
Lewiston       53  74  55  76  56  84 /  20  50  40  40  20  10
Colville       49  73  49  80  51  84 /  60  70  40  30  20  30
Sandpoint      47  68  48  75  50  78 /  60  70  40  50  30  40
Kellogg        46  67  47  71  49  78 /  60  80  50  60  30  40
Moses Lake     52  79  52  82  55  88 /  30  40  20  20  10  10
Wenatchee      57  77  58  82  60  87 /  20  40  30  20  20  10
Omak           49  76  51  83  52  86 /  40  50  40  40  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 252114
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
214 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system will bring scattered afternoon
and evening thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest through
Wednesday. Locally heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and small
hail will be possible the next several days. Low pressure will
gradually depart by Thursday, bringing a decrease in precipitation
chances, but chances may increase again by early next week across
the region. Temperatures warm back above normal from Wednesday
into the end of the week, with highs pushing into 80s Thursday
onward.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Tuesday: The Inland Nortwest will be under the gun for
unsettled late spring weather as an upper level low slowly
meanders across the region. Anticipate showers and thunderstorms
especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures
will remain mild but not as warm as previously experienced, and it
will be muggy with light winds. Currently the mid level frontal
band will slowly depart from Idaho panhandle into Montana by this
evening. Then the track of the low center will help dictate the
path and coverage of convection. Currently the low center is
residing just north of the Cascades in BC as a shortwave rotates
southward and is helping ignite convection across the Okanogan
Highlands and upper Columbai Basin. This activity will gradually
spread eastward. The main concerns with the thunderstorms will be
frequent lightning, heavy downpours, small hail and gusty winds.
This activity will sweep eastward toward the northeast Washington,
north Idaho and Spokane/Coeur d`Alene area early this evening and
overnight as the low center takes this similar path. The low will
gradually fill and remain parked over eastern Washington through
much of the day on Tuesday. With pwats remaining near three
quarters of an inch and circulation spinning over the region,
anticiapte another round of thunderstorms rotating from east to
west across the northern mountains. This will bring a renewed
concern with heavy downpours as thunderstorms increase during the
afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday. /rfox.

Tuesday night through Monday: Low pressure exits and temperatures
begin to warm, but the threat of showers and thunderstorms
continues. First between Tuesday night and Wednesday night low
pressure migrates from the southeast WA/OR border to the
ID/southwest MT border. Without any real influx of drier air,
PWATs remain around 150% of normal (or 0.50 to 0.75 inches). In
addition there are pockets of elevated instability (CAPE and high
level total totals) during the night and early morning and
expansion of SBCAPE in the afternoon. The north-northeast flow on
the backside of the low and smaller scale impulses in that flow
will work with the moisture and instability to bring the threat of
showers and thunderstorms. These will be most numerous in the
afternoon hours. However there are two limiting factors. First the
large-scale pattern shows broader subsidence in the DIV-Q fields,
which may limit coverage away from the higher terrain.
Additionally, models show there is modest CIN across the deeper
Columbia Basin to overcome during the afternoon.

With the lack of significant sheer most storms are not expected
to be well-organized and without a strong steering flow it the
850-700mb layer, storms are expected to be relatively slow-moving.
So the main concern will remain locally heavy downpours and if any
cross a burn scar we will have to monitor for possible flash
flooding or debris flows. Storms may also produce some small hail
and gusty winds, and perhaps abundant lightning.

From Thursday to Monday the region transitions from a northerly
flow to west-southwest flow. Another low drops south across BC and
a deeper trough deepens off the Pacific coast. Impulses ride into
the region in this evolving flow. The precise timing and track of
these features is apt to change over the next several days. With
instability expanding each afternoon there will be some threat of
showers and thunderstorm each day, especially around the mountains
through Friday and potentially expanding to a broader area going
into early next week as models try to bring more a substantial
trough in. This latter set-up will be monitored for possible
organized/stronger thunderstorms for early next week, but it is
too far out to have high confidence yet. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A mid level cold front will exit north idaho by midday,
allowing the band of showers with embedded thunderstorms to push
east into Montana. The moist boundary layer and dewpoints in the
mid 40s to lower 50s will aid in the redevelopment of convection
behind the front. The best areas for convection will be across the
northern mountains, but as the storms drift south-southeast,
expect some activity reaching the TAF sites this afternoon and
early evening. Isolated to scattered showers will persist over
much of the region through 18Z Tuesday as the low center remains
over the region. /rfox

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  70  52  75  54  81 /  60  60  30  30  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  48  70  48  75  51  80 /  60  60  30  40  20  20
Pullman        45  68  48  71  49  78 /  20  40  30  40  20  20
Lewiston       53  74  55  76  56  84 /  20  50  40  40  20  10
Colville       49  73  49  80  51  84 /  60  70  40  30  20  30
Sandpoint      47  68  48  75  50  78 /  60  70  40  50  30  40
Kellogg        46  67  47  71  49  78 /  60  80  50  60  30  40
Moses Lake     52  79  52  82  55  88 /  30  40  20  20  10  10
Wenatchee      57  77  58  82  60  87 /  20  40  30  20  20  10
Omak           49  76  51  83  52  86 /  40  50  40  40  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 252114
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
214 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system will bring scattered afternoon
and evening thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest through
Wednesday. Locally heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and small
hail will be possible the next several days. Low pressure will
gradually depart by Thursday, bringing a decrease in precipitation
chances, but chances may increase again by early next week across
the region. Temperatures warm back above normal from Wednesday
into the end of the week, with highs pushing into 80s Thursday
onward.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Tuesday: The Inland Nortwest will be under the gun for
unsettled late spring weather as an upper level low slowly
meanders across the region. Anticipate showers and thunderstorms
especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures
will remain mild but not as warm as previously experienced, and it
will be muggy with light winds. Currently the mid level frontal
band will slowly depart from Idaho panhandle into Montana by this
evening. Then the track of the low center will help dictate the
path and coverage of convection. Currently the low center is
residing just north of the Cascades in BC as a shortwave rotates
southward and is helping ignite convection across the Okanogan
Highlands and upper Columbai Basin. This activity will gradually
spread eastward. The main concerns with the thunderstorms will be
frequent lightning, heavy downpours, small hail and gusty winds.
This activity will sweep eastward toward the northeast Washington,
north Idaho and Spokane/Coeur d`Alene area early this evening and
overnight as the low center takes this similar path. The low will
gradually fill and remain parked over eastern Washington through
much of the day on Tuesday. With pwats remaining near three
quarters of an inch and circulation spinning over the region,
anticiapte another round of thunderstorms rotating from east to
west across the northern mountains. This will bring a renewed
concern with heavy downpours as thunderstorms increase during the
afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday. /rfox.

Tuesday night through Monday: Low pressure exits and temperatures
begin to warm, but the threat of showers and thunderstorms
continues. First between Tuesday night and Wednesday night low
pressure migrates from the southeast WA/OR border to the
ID/southwest MT border. Without any real influx of drier air,
PWATs remain around 150% of normal (or 0.50 to 0.75 inches). In
addition there are pockets of elevated instability (CAPE and high
level total totals) during the night and early morning and
expansion of SBCAPE in the afternoon. The north-northeast flow on
the backside of the low and smaller scale impulses in that flow
will work with the moisture and instability to bring the threat of
showers and thunderstorms. These will be most numerous in the
afternoon hours. However there are two limiting factors. First the
large-scale pattern shows broader subsidence in the DIV-Q fields,
which may limit coverage away from the higher terrain.
Additionally, models show there is modest CIN across the deeper
Columbia Basin to overcome during the afternoon.

With the lack of significant sheer most storms are not expected
to be well-organized and without a strong steering flow it the
850-700mb layer, storms are expected to be relatively slow-moving.
So the main concern will remain locally heavy downpours and if any
cross a burn scar we will have to monitor for possible flash
flooding or debris flows. Storms may also produce some small hail
and gusty winds, and perhaps abundant lightning.

From Thursday to Monday the region transitions from a northerly
flow to west-southwest flow. Another low drops south across BC and
a deeper trough deepens off the Pacific coast. Impulses ride into
the region in this evolving flow. The precise timing and track of
these features is apt to change over the next several days. With
instability expanding each afternoon there will be some threat of
showers and thunderstorm each day, especially around the mountains
through Friday and potentially expanding to a broader area going
into early next week as models try to bring more a substantial
trough in. This latter set-up will be monitored for possible
organized/stronger thunderstorms for early next week, but it is
too far out to have high confidence yet. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A mid level cold front will exit north idaho by midday,
allowing the band of showers with embedded thunderstorms to push
east into Montana. The moist boundary layer and dewpoints in the
mid 40s to lower 50s will aid in the redevelopment of convection
behind the front. The best areas for convection will be across the
northern mountains, but as the storms drift south-southeast,
expect some activity reaching the TAF sites this afternoon and
early evening. Isolated to scattered showers will persist over
much of the region through 18Z Tuesday as the low center remains
over the region. /rfox

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  70  52  75  54  81 /  60  60  30  30  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  48  70  48  75  51  80 /  60  60  30  40  20  20
Pullman        45  68  48  71  49  78 /  20  40  30  40  20  20
Lewiston       53  74  55  76  56  84 /  20  50  40  40  20  10
Colville       49  73  49  80  51  84 /  60  70  40  30  20  30
Sandpoint      47  68  48  75  50  78 /  60  70  40  50  30  40
Kellogg        46  67  47  71  49  78 /  60  80  50  60  30  40
Moses Lake     52  79  52  82  55  88 /  30  40  20  20  10  10
Wenatchee      57  77  58  82  60  87 /  20  40  30  20  20  10
Omak           49  76  51  83  52  86 /  40  50  40  40  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 252114
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
214 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system will bring scattered afternoon
and evening thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest through
Wednesday. Locally heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and small
hail will be possible the next several days. Low pressure will
gradually depart by Thursday, bringing a decrease in precipitation
chances, but chances may increase again by early next week across
the region. Temperatures warm back above normal from Wednesday
into the end of the week, with highs pushing into 80s Thursday
onward.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Tuesday: The Inland Nortwest will be under the gun for
unsettled late spring weather as an upper level low slowly
meanders across the region. Anticipate showers and thunderstorms
especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures
will remain mild but not as warm as previously experienced, and it
will be muggy with light winds. Currently the mid level frontal
band will slowly depart from Idaho panhandle into Montana by this
evening. Then the track of the low center will help dictate the
path and coverage of convection. Currently the low center is
residing just north of the Cascades in BC as a shortwave rotates
southward and is helping ignite convection across the Okanogan
Highlands and upper Columbai Basin. This activity will gradually
spread eastward. The main concerns with the thunderstorms will be
frequent lightning, heavy downpours, small hail and gusty winds.
This activity will sweep eastward toward the northeast Washington,
north Idaho and Spokane/Coeur d`Alene area early this evening and
overnight as the low center takes this similar path. The low will
gradually fill and remain parked over eastern Washington through
much of the day on Tuesday. With pwats remaining near three
quarters of an inch and circulation spinning over the region,
anticiapte another round of thunderstorms rotating from east to
west across the northern mountains. This will bring a renewed
concern with heavy downpours as thunderstorms increase during the
afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday. /rfox.

Tuesday night through Monday: Low pressure exits and temperatures
begin to warm, but the threat of showers and thunderstorms
continues. First between Tuesday night and Wednesday night low
pressure migrates from the southeast WA/OR border to the
ID/southwest MT border. Without any real influx of drier air,
PWATs remain around 150% of normal (or 0.50 to 0.75 inches). In
addition there are pockets of elevated instability (CAPE and high
level total totals) during the night and early morning and
expansion of SBCAPE in the afternoon. The north-northeast flow on
the backside of the low and smaller scale impulses in that flow
will work with the moisture and instability to bring the threat of
showers and thunderstorms. These will be most numerous in the
afternoon hours. However there are two limiting factors. First the
large-scale pattern shows broader subsidence in the DIV-Q fields,
which may limit coverage away from the higher terrain.
Additionally, models show there is modest CIN across the deeper
Columbia Basin to overcome during the afternoon.

With the lack of significant sheer most storms are not expected
to be well-organized and without a strong steering flow it the
850-700mb layer, storms are expected to be relatively slow-moving.
So the main concern will remain locally heavy downpours and if any
cross a burn scar we will have to monitor for possible flash
flooding or debris flows. Storms may also produce some small hail
and gusty winds, and perhaps abundant lightning.

From Thursday to Monday the region transitions from a northerly
flow to west-southwest flow. Another low drops south across BC and
a deeper trough deepens off the Pacific coast. Impulses ride into
the region in this evolving flow. The precise timing and track of
these features is apt to change over the next several days. With
instability expanding each afternoon there will be some threat of
showers and thunderstorm each day, especially around the mountains
through Friday and potentially expanding to a broader area going
into early next week as models try to bring more a substantial
trough in. This latter set-up will be monitored for possible
organized/stronger thunderstorms for early next week, but it is
too far out to have high confidence yet. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A mid level cold front will exit north idaho by midday,
allowing the band of showers with embedded thunderstorms to push
east into Montana. The moist boundary layer and dewpoints in the
mid 40s to lower 50s will aid in the redevelopment of convection
behind the front. The best areas for convection will be across the
northern mountains, but as the storms drift south-southeast,
expect some activity reaching the TAF sites this afternoon and
early evening. Isolated to scattered showers will persist over
much of the region through 18Z Tuesday as the low center remains
over the region. /rfox

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  70  52  75  54  81 /  60  60  30  30  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  48  70  48  75  51  80 /  60  60  30  40  20  20
Pullman        45  68  48  71  49  78 /  20  40  30  40  20  20
Lewiston       53  74  55  76  56  84 /  20  50  40  40  20  10
Colville       49  73  49  80  51  84 /  60  70  40  30  20  30
Sandpoint      47  68  48  75  50  78 /  60  70  40  50  30  40
Kellogg        46  67  47  71  49  78 /  60  80  50  60  30  40
Moses Lake     52  79  52  82  55  88 /  30  40  20  20  10  10
Wenatchee      57  77  58  82  60  87 /  20  40  30  20  20  10
Omak           49  76  51  83  52  86 /  40  50  40  40  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 251731
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1031 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system will bring scattered afternoon
and evening thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest today through
Wednesday. Locally heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and small
hail will be possible the next several days. Low pressure will
gradually depart by Thursday bringing a decrease in precipitation
chances. Next weekend looks like it will be quite warm with
afternoon temperatures well into the 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Just a quick update for today. An upper level low sits just north
of the Cascades. Main frontal band is pushing across north Idaho
with scattered mid level showers with embedded thunderstorms.
Expect convection to increase through midday especially in the
vicinity of the low as it drops into north Central Washington
numerous showers and isolated/scattered thunderstorms are
expected. Main threat from these slow moving storms will be heavy
downpours and possible ponding of water, along with lightning,
small hail and gusty winds. The thunder threat will decrease
slightly this evening, although the close proximity of the low
will keep showers through the night. /rfox

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A mid level cold front will exit north idaho by midday,
allowing the band of showers with embedded thunderstorms to push
east into Montana. The moist boundary layer and dewpoints in the
mid 40s to lower 50s will aid in the redevelopment of convection
behind the front. The best areas for convection will be across the
northern mountains, but as the storms drift south-southeast,
expect some activity reaching the TAF sites this afternoon and
early evening. Isolated to scattered showers will persist over
much of the region through 18Z Tuesday as the low center remains
over the region. /rfox

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        70  51  70  52  76  54 /  40  40  70  40  30  20
Coeur d`Alene  67  49  69  50  75  51 /  70  40  70  40  40  30
Pullman        68  45  68  47  72  49 /  20  20  40  30  40  20
Lewiston       77  53  74  55  78  56 /  10  10  30  20  30  20
Colville       70  50  73  50  82  51 /  80  70  70  40  30  30
Sandpoint      64  47  69  49  74  50 /  80  50  70  50  40  30
Kellogg        67  45  68  47  73  49 /  80  50  70  50  50  40
Moses Lake     78  53  78  53  83  55 /  20  20  20  30  10  10
Wenatchee      77  57  76  59  83  60 /  20  20  50  30  20  20
Omak           76  50  76  51  82  52 /  70  70  70  40  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 251731
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1031 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system will bring scattered afternoon
and evening thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest today through
Wednesday. Locally heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and small
hail will be possible the next several days. Low pressure will
gradually depart by Thursday bringing a decrease in precipitation
chances. Next weekend looks like it will be quite warm with
afternoon temperatures well into the 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Just a quick update for today. An upper level low sits just north
of the Cascades. Main frontal band is pushing across north Idaho
with scattered mid level showers with embedded thunderstorms.
Expect convection to increase through midday especially in the
vicinity of the low as it drops into north Central Washington
numerous showers and isolated/scattered thunderstorms are
expected. Main threat from these slow moving storms will be heavy
downpours and possible ponding of water, along with lightning,
small hail and gusty winds. The thunder threat will decrease
slightly this evening, although the close proximity of the low
will keep showers through the night. /rfox

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A mid level cold front will exit north idaho by midday,
allowing the band of showers with embedded thunderstorms to push
east into Montana. The moist boundary layer and dewpoints in the
mid 40s to lower 50s will aid in the redevelopment of convection
behind the front. The best areas for convection will be across the
northern mountains, but as the storms drift south-southeast,
expect some activity reaching the TAF sites this afternoon and
early evening. Isolated to scattered showers will persist over
much of the region through 18Z Tuesday as the low center remains
over the region. /rfox

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        70  51  70  52  76  54 /  40  40  70  40  30  20
Coeur d`Alene  67  49  69  50  75  51 /  70  40  70  40  40  30
Pullman        68  45  68  47  72  49 /  20  20  40  30  40  20
Lewiston       77  53  74  55  78  56 /  10  10  30  20  30  20
Colville       70  50  73  50  82  51 /  80  70  70  40  30  30
Sandpoint      64  47  69  49  74  50 /  80  50  70  50  40  30
Kellogg        67  45  68  47  73  49 /  80  50  70  50  50  40
Moses Lake     78  53  78  53  83  55 /  20  20  20  30  10  10
Wenatchee      77  57  76  59  83  60 /  20  20  50  30  20  20
Omak           76  50  76  51  82  52 /  70  70  70  40  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 251731
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1031 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system will bring scattered afternoon
and evening thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest today through
Wednesday. Locally heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and small
hail will be possible the next several days. Low pressure will
gradually depart by Thursday bringing a decrease in precipitation
chances. Next weekend looks like it will be quite warm with
afternoon temperatures well into the 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Just a quick update for today. An upper level low sits just north
of the Cascades. Main frontal band is pushing across north Idaho
with scattered mid level showers with embedded thunderstorms.
Expect convection to increase through midday especially in the
vicinity of the low as it drops into north Central Washington
numerous showers and isolated/scattered thunderstorms are
expected. Main threat from these slow moving storms will be heavy
downpours and possible ponding of water, along with lightning,
small hail and gusty winds. The thunder threat will decrease
slightly this evening, although the close proximity of the low
will keep showers through the night. /rfox

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A mid level cold front will exit north idaho by midday,
allowing the band of showers with embedded thunderstorms to push
east into Montana. The moist boundary layer and dewpoints in the
mid 40s to lower 50s will aid in the redevelopment of convection
behind the front. The best areas for convection will be across the
northern mountains, but as the storms drift south-southeast,
expect some activity reaching the TAF sites this afternoon and
early evening. Isolated to scattered showers will persist over
much of the region through 18Z Tuesday as the low center remains
over the region. /rfox

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        70  51  70  52  76  54 /  40  40  70  40  30  20
Coeur d`Alene  67  49  69  50  75  51 /  70  40  70  40  40  30
Pullman        68  45  68  47  72  49 /  20  20  40  30  40  20
Lewiston       77  53  74  55  78  56 /  10  10  30  20  30  20
Colville       70  50  73  50  82  51 /  80  70  70  40  30  30
Sandpoint      64  47  69  49  74  50 /  80  50  70  50  40  30
Kellogg        67  45  68  47  73  49 /  80  50  70  50  50  40
Moses Lake     78  53  78  53  83  55 /  20  20  20  30  10  10
Wenatchee      77  57  76  59  83  60 /  20  20  50  30  20  20
Omak           76  50  76  51  82  52 /  70  70  70  40  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 251731
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1031 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system will bring scattered afternoon
and evening thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest today through
Wednesday. Locally heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and small
hail will be possible the next several days. Low pressure will
gradually depart by Thursday bringing a decrease in precipitation
chances. Next weekend looks like it will be quite warm with
afternoon temperatures well into the 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Just a quick update for today. An upper level low sits just north
of the Cascades. Main frontal band is pushing across north Idaho
with scattered mid level showers with embedded thunderstorms.
Expect convection to increase through midday especially in the
vicinity of the low as it drops into north Central Washington
numerous showers and isolated/scattered thunderstorms are
expected. Main threat from these slow moving storms will be heavy
downpours and possible ponding of water, along with lightning,
small hail and gusty winds. The thunder threat will decrease
slightly this evening, although the close proximity of the low
will keep showers through the night. /rfox

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A mid level cold front will exit north idaho by midday,
allowing the band of showers with embedded thunderstorms to push
east into Montana. The moist boundary layer and dewpoints in the
mid 40s to lower 50s will aid in the redevelopment of convection
behind the front. The best areas for convection will be across the
northern mountains, but as the storms drift south-southeast,
expect some activity reaching the TAF sites this afternoon and
early evening. Isolated to scattered showers will persist over
much of the region through 18Z Tuesday as the low center remains
over the region. /rfox

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        70  51  70  52  76  54 /  40  40  70  40  30  20
Coeur d`Alene  67  49  69  50  75  51 /  70  40  70  40  40  30
Pullman        68  45  68  47  72  49 /  20  20  40  30  40  20
Lewiston       77  53  74  55  78  56 /  10  10  30  20  30  20
Colville       70  50  73  50  82  51 /  80  70  70  40  30  30
Sandpoint      64  47  69  49  74  50 /  80  50  70  50  40  30
Kellogg        67  45  68  47  73  49 /  80  50  70  50  50  40
Moses Lake     78  53  78  53  83  55 /  20  20  20  30  10  10
Wenatchee      77  57  76  59  83  60 /  20  20  50  30  20  20
Omak           76  50  76  51  82  52 /  70  70  70  40  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSEW 251626
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
926 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN MOIST LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS WEEK. MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT WEAKER
ONSHORE FLOW FROM MID WEEK ONWARD ALONG WITH HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND A
WARMING TREND. THE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES WILL CONTINUE TO
BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE LATE IN THE DAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NEAR THE CREST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS
MOVED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING JUST N OF THE
WA CASCADES. AN AREA OF RETURN FLOW RAIN COMING S ON THE W SIDE OF
THE LOW HAS MOVED OVER THE FAR N INTERIOR OF W WA THIS MORNING. THIS
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT SHOWS UP IN BOTH THE NAM AND GFS. THE MODELS MOVE THE SHORTWAVE
OVER THE N CASCADES BY 18Z SO THE AREA OF RAIN SHOULD BE MOVING E
AWAY FROM BELLINGHAM LATE THIS MORNING. BASED ON MODEL VORTICITY...
IT LOOKS LIKE A WEAKER TROUGH COULD SLIDE S OVER THE N INTERIOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND PER THE HIRES-ARW ANOTHER MIGHT REACH THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH WHEN DEALING
WITH THESE SMALL FEATURES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS OVER THE
CASCADES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LIFTED INDICES ONLY DROP TO -2
OVER THE FAR NE CORNER. A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
STILL LOOKS FINE FOR THIS AREA...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
THE REST OF THE CASCADES NEAR THE CREST. N STEERING FLOW MAY ALSO
ALLOW CELLS OVER INTERIOR B.C. TO DRIFT S OVER THE N CASCADES.

RESIDUAL WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER MOIST TODAY.
THE HQM-SEA AND AST-SEA PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE FLAT AT 8 AM...BUT
SURFACE WINDS OVER SW WA REMAINED WEAK W-SW. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUD TOP MOTIONS MOVING INLAND FROM THE COAST...
CONFIRMING THE CONTINUING ONSHORE TENDENCY IN THE MARINE LAYER. SO
WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING IN THE MARINE LAYER OVER SW WA AND
AND HIGHER CLOUD LAYERS WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
MOVING S OVER THE N INTERIOR...IT DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT PROMISING
FOR ANY CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE ONLY SOME BRIEF
AFTERNOON SUNBREAKS AT BEST.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THIS WEEK BUT THE MODELS
CONTINUE THE TREND OF WEAKENING THE FLOW AND THE MARINE LAYER A
LITTLE EACH DAY. THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OR EVEN PARTIAL
CLEARING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS PARTLY SUNNY IN THE
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL WARM GRADUALLY THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS SUNSHINE INCREASES...AND AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
HEADS E AND AN OFFSHORE RIDGE BUILDS INLAND. MAX TEMPS MAY REACH THE
LOWER 70S IN SPOTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME UNSTABLE EACH
AFTERNOON FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE CREST. THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM IS LOW BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 335 PM AFD...EXTENDED
MODELS WHICH HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS
HAVE LOST A BIT OF CONSISTENCY BOTH AMONG THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS AND
RUN TO RUN. GFS SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE
BECAUSE OF YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE.
BOTH MODELS STILL HAVE DECENT 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON...MID 570 DMS AND WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. WILL STAY
WITH THE IDEA OF CONTINUING THE WARMING TREND ON THURSDAY WITH
PLENTY OF HIGHS IN THE 70S OVER THE INTERIOR. ECMWF CONTINUES TO
DROP THE LOW SOUTH ON FRIDAY INDUCING A STRONGER ONSHORE PATTERN
VERSUS THE GFS WHICH HAS THE LOW MUCH FURTHER NORTH. THE ECMWF DOES
KEEP THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE LOW NORTH OF THE BORDER. ON SATURDAY
THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW BACK TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION
CONTINUES TO PUT THE LOW FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST. MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING
NEAR HAIDA GWAII ON SUNDAY. CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS THE WARMER...BY
ABOUT 5 DEGREES...GFS SOLUTION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON THE COAST AND MID 60S TO MID 70S OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH THE WARMEST DAY BEING FRIDAY. WITH THE NEWER SOLUTIONS
IN THE EXTENDED RUNS THIS MORNING WILL LET THE CURRENT FORECAST RIDE
FOR ANOTHER FORECAST PACKAGE. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK...CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE S-SE THROUGH ERN WA
TODAY AND TUE...REACHING NE ORE LATE TUE NGT. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT
N-NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH TUE. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SFC WILL
KEEP THE AIR MASS MOIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AND SOMEWHAT MOIST
ALOFT. WEAKLY STABLE AIR MASS...EXCEPT UNSTABLE OVER THE CASCADES
DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVNG HOURS.

RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF RAIN SPREADING SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER...AFFECTING THE NORTH CASCADES AND BRUSHING KBLI FROM NOW
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...IFR AND MVFR CIGS OVER THE LOWLANDS
WILL LIFT TO MVFR AND VFR THIS AFTN...BUT SIGNIFICANT SCATTERING
IS UNLIKELY.

KSEA...CIGS WILL RISE TO 4K FT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS OCCURRED AROUND
22Z YESTERDAY...AND TIMING TREND WILL BE SIMILAR TODAY. THE DEEP
MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN INTACT ALONG WITH BKN-OVC CLOUD COVERAGE.
SW WIND 6-10 KT.     HANER

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WILL OCCUR AGAIN
THIS EVNG AND TUE EVNG...SIMPLY AS A FUNCTION OF DIURNAL
STRENGTHENING AND WEAKENING OF ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS.
LARGER-SCALE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAKER FROM WED THROUGH FRI.
HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML











000
FXUS66 KSEW 251626
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
926 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN MOIST LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS WEEK. MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT WEAKER
ONSHORE FLOW FROM MID WEEK ONWARD ALONG WITH HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND A
WARMING TREND. THE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES WILL CONTINUE TO
BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE LATE IN THE DAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NEAR THE CREST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS
MOVED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING JUST N OF THE
WA CASCADES. AN AREA OF RETURN FLOW RAIN COMING S ON THE W SIDE OF
THE LOW HAS MOVED OVER THE FAR N INTERIOR OF W WA THIS MORNING. THIS
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT SHOWS UP IN BOTH THE NAM AND GFS. THE MODELS MOVE THE SHORTWAVE
OVER THE N CASCADES BY 18Z SO THE AREA OF RAIN SHOULD BE MOVING E
AWAY FROM BELLINGHAM LATE THIS MORNING. BASED ON MODEL VORTICITY...
IT LOOKS LIKE A WEAKER TROUGH COULD SLIDE S OVER THE N INTERIOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND PER THE HIRES-ARW ANOTHER MIGHT REACH THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH WHEN DEALING
WITH THESE SMALL FEATURES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS OVER THE
CASCADES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LIFTED INDICES ONLY DROP TO -2
OVER THE FAR NE CORNER. A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
STILL LOOKS FINE FOR THIS AREA...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
THE REST OF THE CASCADES NEAR THE CREST. N STEERING FLOW MAY ALSO
ALLOW CELLS OVER INTERIOR B.C. TO DRIFT S OVER THE N CASCADES.

RESIDUAL WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER MOIST TODAY.
THE HQM-SEA AND AST-SEA PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE FLAT AT 8 AM...BUT
SURFACE WINDS OVER SW WA REMAINED WEAK W-SW. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUD TOP MOTIONS MOVING INLAND FROM THE COAST...
CONFIRMING THE CONTINUING ONSHORE TENDENCY IN THE MARINE LAYER. SO
WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING IN THE MARINE LAYER OVER SW WA AND
AND HIGHER CLOUD LAYERS WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
MOVING S OVER THE N INTERIOR...IT DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT PROMISING
FOR ANY CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE ONLY SOME BRIEF
AFTERNOON SUNBREAKS AT BEST.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THIS WEEK BUT THE MODELS
CONTINUE THE TREND OF WEAKENING THE FLOW AND THE MARINE LAYER A
LITTLE EACH DAY. THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OR EVEN PARTIAL
CLEARING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS PARTLY SUNNY IN THE
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL WARM GRADUALLY THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS SUNSHINE INCREASES...AND AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
HEADS E AND AN OFFSHORE RIDGE BUILDS INLAND. MAX TEMPS MAY REACH THE
LOWER 70S IN SPOTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME UNSTABLE EACH
AFTERNOON FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE CREST. THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM IS LOW BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 335 PM AFD...EXTENDED
MODELS WHICH HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS
HAVE LOST A BIT OF CONSISTENCY BOTH AMONG THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS AND
RUN TO RUN. GFS SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE
BECAUSE OF YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE.
BOTH MODELS STILL HAVE DECENT 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON...MID 570 DMS AND WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. WILL STAY
WITH THE IDEA OF CONTINUING THE WARMING TREND ON THURSDAY WITH
PLENTY OF HIGHS IN THE 70S OVER THE INTERIOR. ECMWF CONTINUES TO
DROP THE LOW SOUTH ON FRIDAY INDUCING A STRONGER ONSHORE PATTERN
VERSUS THE GFS WHICH HAS THE LOW MUCH FURTHER NORTH. THE ECMWF DOES
KEEP THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE LOW NORTH OF THE BORDER. ON SATURDAY
THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW BACK TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION
CONTINUES TO PUT THE LOW FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST. MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING
NEAR HAIDA GWAII ON SUNDAY. CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS THE WARMER...BY
ABOUT 5 DEGREES...GFS SOLUTION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON THE COAST AND MID 60S TO MID 70S OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH THE WARMEST DAY BEING FRIDAY. WITH THE NEWER SOLUTIONS
IN THE EXTENDED RUNS THIS MORNING WILL LET THE CURRENT FORECAST RIDE
FOR ANOTHER FORECAST PACKAGE. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK...CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE S-SE THROUGH ERN WA
TODAY AND TUE...REACHING NE ORE LATE TUE NGT. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT
N-NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH TUE. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SFC WILL
KEEP THE AIR MASS MOIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AND SOMEWHAT MOIST
ALOFT. WEAKLY STABLE AIR MASS...EXCEPT UNSTABLE OVER THE CASCADES
DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVNG HOURS.

RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF RAIN SPREADING SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER...AFFECTING THE NORTH CASCADES AND BRUSHING KBLI FROM NOW
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...IFR AND MVFR CIGS OVER THE LOWLANDS
WILL LIFT TO MVFR AND VFR THIS AFTN...BUT SIGNIFICANT SCATTERING
IS UNLIKELY.

KSEA...CIGS WILL RISE TO 4K FT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS OCCURRED AROUND
22Z YESTERDAY...AND TIMING TREND WILL BE SIMILAR TODAY. THE DEEP
MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN INTACT ALONG WITH BKN-OVC CLOUD COVERAGE.
SW WIND 6-10 KT.     HANER

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WILL OCCUR AGAIN
THIS EVNG AND TUE EVNG...SIMPLY AS A FUNCTION OF DIURNAL
STRENGTHENING AND WEAKENING OF ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS.
LARGER-SCALE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAKER FROM WED THROUGH FRI.
HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KPQR 251601
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
900 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN B.C. WILL SLOWLY
MOVE INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AND INTO IDAHO LATER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH LITTLE CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOONS. IT WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR NIGHT AND MORNING DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA...AS WELL AS A FEW
LATE DAY SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM IN THE HIGHER CASCADES. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WEAKENING THE ONSHORE FLOW AND ALLOWING
MORE SUNSHINE TO BREAK THROUGH WITH TEMPS WARMING ABOVE NORMAL.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEKEND MAY BRING A RETURN TO THE MARINE
LAYER AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES AGAIN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW SITS OVER SOUTHERN B.C. THIS
MORNING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MOVED ONSHORE
OVERNIGHT...DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER AND BRINGING SOME AREAS OF
DRIZZLE TO THE REGION. MOST OF THE OBSERVED DRIZZLE OCCURRED OVER THE
S WASHINGTON AND N OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE. THE ASTORIA ASOS AND
TIDEWATER RAWS IN THE N OREGON COAST RANGE HAVE BOTH RECORDED 0.04
INCHES OF DRIZZLE THIS MORNING...AND SEVERAL OTHER SITES HAVE
RECORDED A TRACE TO 0.01 INCH. EXTENSIVE MARINE STRATUS HAS ALSO
PUSHED INTO THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS...AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF CLEARING DOWN IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY...BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO BE
MORE PERSISTENT FURTHER NORTH. HOWEVER...EVEN UP NORTH...THINK THERE
WILL BE SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUD COVER FOR A FEW SUN BREAKS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SE INTO EASTERN WA LATER
TODAY AND TUE. EXPECT THE ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUE WITH CLOUDS REMAINING ALONG THE COAST...AND SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY INLAND. AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES BY TO THE
NE...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF NIGHTTIME AND MORNING DRIZZLE FOR THE N
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE S WA CASCADES TODAY AND TUE WHERE
INSTABILITY WITH BE BEST DUE TO COOL POOL ALOFT.

BY WED THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E INTO IDAHO...AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRES OFFSHORE PUSHES CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS WEAKENS THE
ONSHORE FLOW A BIT...MAKING THE LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS BREAKING UP IN
THE AFTERNOON GREATER. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM SOME...TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INLAND WED. WILL NEED TO KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADES WED A MORE
UNSTABLE WRAPS AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. PYLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACNW
MIDWEEK...DRYING OUT THE REGION. CONTINUED WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MARINE CLOUDS INLAND OVERNIGHT...BUT STRATUS
SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART CLEAR OUT BY MIDDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S AND MAYBE LOW 80S INLAND. A THERMAL LOW
DEVELOPS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY AND STARTS TO PUSH
NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH COULD HELP DEVELOP SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CREST OF
THE CASCADES ON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BACKGROUND FLOW WILL BE OUT
OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST THOUGH...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THESE STORMS FROM
DRIFTING WESTWARD INTO THE VALLEY. -MCCOY &&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING EXCEPT A FEW IFR
PATCHES ON THE COAST. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE
MORNING BUT STILL LEAVE THE NORTH OREGON COAST UNDER MVFR CIGS
WHILE THE CENTRAL COAST MAY BREAK OUT AGAIN AND INLAND AREAS
BECOME VFR CIGS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAY SEE THE CLOUDS IN SOME AREAS
ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND THIN IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY GO SCATTERED FOR A FEW HOURS. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A LOW INLAND OVER WASHINGTON AND A LOT OF
STRATOCUMULUS OFF THE COAST THAT WILL ADVECT ONSHORE. EXPECT A
RETURN TO MVFR CIGS MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS 025 TO 030 WILL PREVAIL UNTIL AROUND
20Z. THEN EXPECT LOW END VFR CIGS TO LIFT FURTHER IN THE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME BKN IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY BECOME SCATTERED FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS EITHER SIDE OF
00Z. CIGS SOLIDIFY AROUND 035 IN THE EVENING NEAR 26/03Z THEN
GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. PT
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
WITH LOWER PRESSURE WELL INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS AT TIMES. MIXED SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK...WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
TIMES DUE TO A FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL MIXED WITH A LONGER PERIOD
MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 251601
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
900 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN B.C. WILL SLOWLY
MOVE INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AND INTO IDAHO LATER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH LITTLE CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOONS. IT WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR NIGHT AND MORNING DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA...AS WELL AS A FEW
LATE DAY SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM IN THE HIGHER CASCADES. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WEAKENING THE ONSHORE FLOW AND ALLOWING
MORE SUNSHINE TO BREAK THROUGH WITH TEMPS WARMING ABOVE NORMAL.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEKEND MAY BRING A RETURN TO THE MARINE
LAYER AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES AGAIN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW SITS OVER SOUTHERN B.C. THIS
MORNING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MOVED ONSHORE
OVERNIGHT...DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER AND BRINGING SOME AREAS OF
DRIZZLE TO THE REGION. MOST OF THE OBSERVED DRIZZLE OCCURRED OVER THE
S WASHINGTON AND N OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE. THE ASTORIA ASOS AND
TIDEWATER RAWS IN THE N OREGON COAST RANGE HAVE BOTH RECORDED 0.04
INCHES OF DRIZZLE THIS MORNING...AND SEVERAL OTHER SITES HAVE
RECORDED A TRACE TO 0.01 INCH. EXTENSIVE MARINE STRATUS HAS ALSO
PUSHED INTO THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS...AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF CLEARING DOWN IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY...BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO BE
MORE PERSISTENT FURTHER NORTH. HOWEVER...EVEN UP NORTH...THINK THERE
WILL BE SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUD COVER FOR A FEW SUN BREAKS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SE INTO EASTERN WA LATER
TODAY AND TUE. EXPECT THE ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUE WITH CLOUDS REMAINING ALONG THE COAST...AND SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY INLAND. AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES BY TO THE
NE...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF NIGHTTIME AND MORNING DRIZZLE FOR THE N
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE S WA CASCADES TODAY AND TUE WHERE
INSTABILITY WITH BE BEST DUE TO COOL POOL ALOFT.

BY WED THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E INTO IDAHO...AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRES OFFSHORE PUSHES CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS WEAKENS THE
ONSHORE FLOW A BIT...MAKING THE LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS BREAKING UP IN
THE AFTERNOON GREATER. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM SOME...TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INLAND WED. WILL NEED TO KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADES WED A MORE
UNSTABLE WRAPS AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. PYLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACNW
MIDWEEK...DRYING OUT THE REGION. CONTINUED WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MARINE CLOUDS INLAND OVERNIGHT...BUT STRATUS
SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART CLEAR OUT BY MIDDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S AND MAYBE LOW 80S INLAND. A THERMAL LOW
DEVELOPS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY AND STARTS TO PUSH
NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH COULD HELP DEVELOP SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CREST OF
THE CASCADES ON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BACKGROUND FLOW WILL BE OUT
OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST THOUGH...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THESE STORMS FROM
DRIFTING WESTWARD INTO THE VALLEY. -MCCOY &&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING EXCEPT A FEW IFR
PATCHES ON THE COAST. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE
MORNING BUT STILL LEAVE THE NORTH OREGON COAST UNDER MVFR CIGS
WHILE THE CENTRAL COAST MAY BREAK OUT AGAIN AND INLAND AREAS
BECOME VFR CIGS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAY SEE THE CLOUDS IN SOME AREAS
ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND THIN IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY GO SCATTERED FOR A FEW HOURS. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A LOW INLAND OVER WASHINGTON AND A LOT OF
STRATOCUMULUS OFF THE COAST THAT WILL ADVECT ONSHORE. EXPECT A
RETURN TO MVFR CIGS MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS 025 TO 030 WILL PREVAIL UNTIL AROUND
20Z. THEN EXPECT LOW END VFR CIGS TO LIFT FURTHER IN THE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME BKN IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY BECOME SCATTERED FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS EITHER SIDE OF
00Z. CIGS SOLIDIFY AROUND 035 IN THE EVENING NEAR 26/03Z THEN
GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. PT
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
WITH LOWER PRESSURE WELL INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS AT TIMES. MIXED SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK...WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
TIMES DUE TO A FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL MIXED WITH A LONGER PERIOD
MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 251155
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
455 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system will bring scattered afternoon
and evening thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest today through
Wednesday. Locally heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and small
hail will be possible the next several days. Low pressure will
gradually depart by Thursday bringing a decrease in precipitation
chances. Next weekend looks like it will be quite warm with
afternoon temperatures well into the 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Memorial Day through Tuesday night: Satellite imagery early this
morning shows a tightly wrapped upper level low centered over
southern BC. Showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue to
form on the eastern portion of the upper level low through the
morning hours. This will include areas primarily northeast of a
line from Republic to Pullman. The upper level low will slowly
track over the northern portion of the WA Cascades and over the
Waterville Plateau through this afternoon. Water vapor satellite
imagery shows a dry slot extending across the northwest portion of
the forecast area through 2:00 AM this morning. This drier air
will also progress eastward through the day. This will result in a
decreasing chance for convective showers and thunderstorms from
west to east across portions of extreme eastern WA. However,
colder temperatures aloft associated with the upper level low will
result in steepening mid level lapse rates from the East Slopes of
the Northern Cascades to the Northeast Mtns and into the western
portion of the basin. This will result in showers increasing
through the late morning and afternoon hours across these areas.
Thunderstorms are also expected to occur as the atmosphere
destabilizes in the afternoon. These thunderstorms will be slow
moving and contain very heavy rainfall. Greatest coverage of
showers and thunderstorms is expected over the northern mountains
and mainly north of Lake Chelan in the Cascades over to the
Northeast Mtns. Heavy rainfall will be a concern for the recent
burn scars. Greatest concern this afternoon will be for the
potential of flash flooding and/or debris flows over and near the
Carlton Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars. Recent burn scars
south of Lake Chelan will also see the possibility for heavy
rainfall today, but chances are not quite as high.

The center of the upper level low will shift more into the basin
on Tuesday. This will result in another day of increased
convective activity through the late morning and afternoon hours.
All areas will see at least a chance for some isolated
thunderstorms. Chances will be a bit higher for thunderstorms
further south across the east slopes of the norther Cascades. This
will result in a better chance for heavy rainfall over the Chiwaukum,
Mills Canyon and Colokum Tarps burn scars, as well as, the Carlton
Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars. P-wats will be a bit higher
on Tuesday and is expected to be greater risk for flash flooding
and/or debris flows at or near these burn scars compared to today.

Temperatures will be noticeably cooler today compared to the past
few days. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid and
upper 60s and 70s across the region. Expect similar temperatures
on Tuesday. /SVH

Wednesday and Thursday: Our slow moving upper low is expected to
drift into northeast Oregon and the southern Idaho Panhandle on
Wednesday. Our highest concentration of showers and thunderstorms
should be in the vicinity of the 500mb cold pool including the
Blue Mountains, Camas Prairie, and Clearwater Mountains. The NAM,
GFS, ECWMF and SREF produce a secondary convective signal over the
northern Washington Cascades. So Wednesday has the potential to be
another day of closely monitoring the Cascade Burn Scars. By
Thursday, our pesky low should be over southern Idaho and northern
Utah leaving the Inland Northwest under the influence of weak
residual cyclonic 500mb flow...namely over the Idaho Panhandle.
With less upper support, afternoon/evening thunderstorms should be
more terrain based. The lowlands of the Columbia Basin, Palouse,
and West Plains will probably be free of showers while the
mountains have a shot at scattered diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms.

Friday through Sunday: The Pacific Northwest will be between a
weak upper ridge building over the Great Basin and an elongated,
strung-out trough over southwestern Canada Friday through Sunday.
The evening run of the medium range models are not as warm for the
upcoming weekend, but still suggest well above average
temperatures. It is doubtful that any given day between Friday and
Sunday will be completely free of showers, but it is tough to
figure what areas stand the best shot of convection given the
subtle differences in the strength of the ridge to the south and
the trough to the north. Even though the ECMWF and GFS have backed
off on their 20C and warmer 850mb temperatures for next weekend,
places like Lewiston, Moses Lake, Wenatchee, and Omak could have a
shot at hitting 90 degrees Friday, Saturday or Sunday for the
first time this year. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A mid level cold front will slowly push across extreme
eastern WA and into the ID Panhandle this morning into the early
afternoon. This will combine with some instability at mid levels
to generate showers and thunderstorms across the Spokane-Coeur
d`Alene corridor through the morning hours. A moist boundary layer
is also expected to result in some low stratus early this morning
with MVFR cigs possible. A short break is expected late in the
morning, but low levels will destabilize quickly in the afternoon
for the possibility of surface based showers and thunderstorms across
much of the northern portions of eastern WA over into the ID
Panhandle. This will include the KGEG, KSFF and KCOE TAF sites.
KEAT and KMWH may see isolated thunderstorms push in off of the
Cascades and the Waterville Plateau late this afternoon, but
confidence is low. Isolated to scattered showers will persist over
much of the region through 12Z Tuesday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        70  51  70  52  76  54 /  40  40  70  40  30  20
Coeur d`Alene  67  49  69  50  75  51 /  60  40  70  40  40  30
Pullman        68  45  68  47  72  49 /  20  10  40  30  40  20
Lewiston       77  53  74  55  78  56 /  20  10  30  20  30  20
Colville       70  50  73  50  82  51 /  80  70  70  40  30  30
Sandpoint      64  47  69  49  74  50 /  70  50  70  50  40  30
Kellogg        67  45  68  47  73  49 /  80  50  70  50  50  40
Moses Lake     78  53  78  53  83  55 /  20  20  20  20  10  10
Wenatchee      77  57  76  59  83  60 /  30  20  50  30  20  20
Omak           76  50  76  51  82  52 /  70  70  70  40  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 251155
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
455 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system will bring scattered afternoon
and evening thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest today through
Wednesday. Locally heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and small
hail will be possible the next several days. Low pressure will
gradually depart by Thursday bringing a decrease in precipitation
chances. Next weekend looks like it will be quite warm with
afternoon temperatures well into the 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Memorial Day through Tuesday night: Satellite imagery early this
morning shows a tightly wrapped upper level low centered over
southern BC. Showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue to
form on the eastern portion of the upper level low through the
morning hours. This will include areas primarily northeast of a
line from Republic to Pullman. The upper level low will slowly
track over the northern portion of the WA Cascades and over the
Waterville Plateau through this afternoon. Water vapor satellite
imagery shows a dry slot extending across the northwest portion of
the forecast area through 2:00 AM this morning. This drier air
will also progress eastward through the day. This will result in a
decreasing chance for convective showers and thunderstorms from
west to east across portions of extreme eastern WA. However,
colder temperatures aloft associated with the upper level low will
result in steepening mid level lapse rates from the East Slopes of
the Northern Cascades to the Northeast Mtns and into the western
portion of the basin. This will result in showers increasing
through the late morning and afternoon hours across these areas.
Thunderstorms are also expected to occur as the atmosphere
destabilizes in the afternoon. These thunderstorms will be slow
moving and contain very heavy rainfall. Greatest coverage of
showers and thunderstorms is expected over the northern mountains
and mainly north of Lake Chelan in the Cascades over to the
Northeast Mtns. Heavy rainfall will be a concern for the recent
burn scars. Greatest concern this afternoon will be for the
potential of flash flooding and/or debris flows over and near the
Carlton Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars. Recent burn scars
south of Lake Chelan will also see the possibility for heavy
rainfall today, but chances are not quite as high.

The center of the upper level low will shift more into the basin
on Tuesday. This will result in another day of increased
convective activity through the late morning and afternoon hours.
All areas will see at least a chance for some isolated
thunderstorms. Chances will be a bit higher for thunderstorms
further south across the east slopes of the norther Cascades. This
will result in a better chance for heavy rainfall over the Chiwaukum,
Mills Canyon and Colokum Tarps burn scars, as well as, the Carlton
Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars. P-wats will be a bit higher
on Tuesday and is expected to be greater risk for flash flooding
and/or debris flows at or near these burn scars compared to today.

Temperatures will be noticeably cooler today compared to the past
few days. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid and
upper 60s and 70s across the region. Expect similar temperatures
on Tuesday. /SVH

Wednesday and Thursday: Our slow moving upper low is expected to
drift into northeast Oregon and the southern Idaho Panhandle on
Wednesday. Our highest concentration of showers and thunderstorms
should be in the vicinity of the 500mb cold pool including the
Blue Mountains, Camas Prairie, and Clearwater Mountains. The NAM,
GFS, ECWMF and SREF produce a secondary convective signal over the
northern Washington Cascades. So Wednesday has the potential to be
another day of closely monitoring the Cascade Burn Scars. By
Thursday, our pesky low should be over southern Idaho and northern
Utah leaving the Inland Northwest under the influence of weak
residual cyclonic 500mb flow...namely over the Idaho Panhandle.
With less upper support, afternoon/evening thunderstorms should be
more terrain based. The lowlands of the Columbia Basin, Palouse,
and West Plains will probably be free of showers while the
mountains have a shot at scattered diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms.

Friday through Sunday: The Pacific Northwest will be between a
weak upper ridge building over the Great Basin and an elongated,
strung-out trough over southwestern Canada Friday through Sunday.
The evening run of the medium range models are not as warm for the
upcoming weekend, but still suggest well above average
temperatures. It is doubtful that any given day between Friday and
Sunday will be completely free of showers, but it is tough to
figure what areas stand the best shot of convection given the
subtle differences in the strength of the ridge to the south and
the trough to the north. Even though the ECMWF and GFS have backed
off on their 20C and warmer 850mb temperatures for next weekend,
places like Lewiston, Moses Lake, Wenatchee, and Omak could have a
shot at hitting 90 degrees Friday, Saturday or Sunday for the
first time this year. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A mid level cold front will slowly push across extreme
eastern WA and into the ID Panhandle this morning into the early
afternoon. This will combine with some instability at mid levels
to generate showers and thunderstorms across the Spokane-Coeur
d`Alene corridor through the morning hours. A moist boundary layer
is also expected to result in some low stratus early this morning
with MVFR cigs possible. A short break is expected late in the
morning, but low levels will destabilize quickly in the afternoon
for the possibility of surface based showers and thunderstorms across
much of the northern portions of eastern WA over into the ID
Panhandle. This will include the KGEG, KSFF and KCOE TAF sites.
KEAT and KMWH may see isolated thunderstorms push in off of the
Cascades and the Waterville Plateau late this afternoon, but
confidence is low. Isolated to scattered showers will persist over
much of the region through 12Z Tuesday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        70  51  70  52  76  54 /  40  40  70  40  30  20
Coeur d`Alene  67  49  69  50  75  51 /  60  40  70  40  40  30
Pullman        68  45  68  47  72  49 /  20  10  40  30  40  20
Lewiston       77  53  74  55  78  56 /  20  10  30  20  30  20
Colville       70  50  73  50  82  51 /  80  70  70  40  30  30
Sandpoint      64  47  69  49  74  50 /  70  50  70  50  40  30
Kellogg        67  45  68  47  73  49 /  80  50  70  50  50  40
Moses Lake     78  53  78  53  83  55 /  20  20  20  20  10  10
Wenatchee      77  57  76  59  83  60 /  30  20  50  30  20  20
Omak           76  50  76  51  82  52 /  70  70  70  40  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 251155
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
455 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system will bring scattered afternoon
and evening thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest today through
Wednesday. Locally heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and small
hail will be possible the next several days. Low pressure will
gradually depart by Thursday bringing a decrease in precipitation
chances. Next weekend looks like it will be quite warm with
afternoon temperatures well into the 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Memorial Day through Tuesday night: Satellite imagery early this
morning shows a tightly wrapped upper level low centered over
southern BC. Showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue to
form on the eastern portion of the upper level low through the
morning hours. This will include areas primarily northeast of a
line from Republic to Pullman. The upper level low will slowly
track over the northern portion of the WA Cascades and over the
Waterville Plateau through this afternoon. Water vapor satellite
imagery shows a dry slot extending across the northwest portion of
the forecast area through 2:00 AM this morning. This drier air
will also progress eastward through the day. This will result in a
decreasing chance for convective showers and thunderstorms from
west to east across portions of extreme eastern WA. However,
colder temperatures aloft associated with the upper level low will
result in steepening mid level lapse rates from the East Slopes of
the Northern Cascades to the Northeast Mtns and into the western
portion of the basin. This will result in showers increasing
through the late morning and afternoon hours across these areas.
Thunderstorms are also expected to occur as the atmosphere
destabilizes in the afternoon. These thunderstorms will be slow
moving and contain very heavy rainfall. Greatest coverage of
showers and thunderstorms is expected over the northern mountains
and mainly north of Lake Chelan in the Cascades over to the
Northeast Mtns. Heavy rainfall will be a concern for the recent
burn scars. Greatest concern this afternoon will be for the
potential of flash flooding and/or debris flows over and near the
Carlton Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars. Recent burn scars
south of Lake Chelan will also see the possibility for heavy
rainfall today, but chances are not quite as high.

The center of the upper level low will shift more into the basin
on Tuesday. This will result in another day of increased
convective activity through the late morning and afternoon hours.
All areas will see at least a chance for some isolated
thunderstorms. Chances will be a bit higher for thunderstorms
further south across the east slopes of the norther Cascades. This
will result in a better chance for heavy rainfall over the Chiwaukum,
Mills Canyon and Colokum Tarps burn scars, as well as, the Carlton
Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars. P-wats will be a bit higher
on Tuesday and is expected to be greater risk for flash flooding
and/or debris flows at or near these burn scars compared to today.

Temperatures will be noticeably cooler today compared to the past
few days. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid and
upper 60s and 70s across the region. Expect similar temperatures
on Tuesday. /SVH

Wednesday and Thursday: Our slow moving upper low is expected to
drift into northeast Oregon and the southern Idaho Panhandle on
Wednesday. Our highest concentration of showers and thunderstorms
should be in the vicinity of the 500mb cold pool including the
Blue Mountains, Camas Prairie, and Clearwater Mountains. The NAM,
GFS, ECWMF and SREF produce a secondary convective signal over the
northern Washington Cascades. So Wednesday has the potential to be
another day of closely monitoring the Cascade Burn Scars. By
Thursday, our pesky low should be over southern Idaho and northern
Utah leaving the Inland Northwest under the influence of weak
residual cyclonic 500mb flow...namely over the Idaho Panhandle.
With less upper support, afternoon/evening thunderstorms should be
more terrain based. The lowlands of the Columbia Basin, Palouse,
and West Plains will probably be free of showers while the
mountains have a shot at scattered diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms.

Friday through Sunday: The Pacific Northwest will be between a
weak upper ridge building over the Great Basin and an elongated,
strung-out trough over southwestern Canada Friday through Sunday.
The evening run of the medium range models are not as warm for the
upcoming weekend, but still suggest well above average
temperatures. It is doubtful that any given day between Friday and
Sunday will be completely free of showers, but it is tough to
figure what areas stand the best shot of convection given the
subtle differences in the strength of the ridge to the south and
the trough to the north. Even though the ECMWF and GFS have backed
off on their 20C and warmer 850mb temperatures for next weekend,
places like Lewiston, Moses Lake, Wenatchee, and Omak could have a
shot at hitting 90 degrees Friday, Saturday or Sunday for the
first time this year. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A mid level cold front will slowly push across extreme
eastern WA and into the ID Panhandle this morning into the early
afternoon. This will combine with some instability at mid levels
to generate showers and thunderstorms across the Spokane-Coeur
d`Alene corridor through the morning hours. A moist boundary layer
is also expected to result in some low stratus early this morning
with MVFR cigs possible. A short break is expected late in the
morning, but low levels will destabilize quickly in the afternoon
for the possibility of surface based showers and thunderstorms across
much of the northern portions of eastern WA over into the ID
Panhandle. This will include the KGEG, KSFF and KCOE TAF sites.
KEAT and KMWH may see isolated thunderstorms push in off of the
Cascades and the Waterville Plateau late this afternoon, but
confidence is low. Isolated to scattered showers will persist over
much of the region through 12Z Tuesday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        70  51  70  52  76  54 /  40  40  70  40  30  20
Coeur d`Alene  67  49  69  50  75  51 /  60  40  70  40  40  30
Pullman        68  45  68  47  72  49 /  20  10  40  30  40  20
Lewiston       77  53  74  55  78  56 /  20  10  30  20  30  20
Colville       70  50  73  50  82  51 /  80  70  70  40  30  30
Sandpoint      64  47  69  49  74  50 /  70  50  70  50  40  30
Kellogg        67  45  68  47  73  49 /  80  50  70  50  50  40
Moses Lake     78  53  78  53  83  55 /  20  20  20  20  10  10
Wenatchee      77  57  76  59  83  60 /  30  20  50  30  20  20
Omak           76  50  76  51  82  52 /  70  70  70  40  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSEW 251035
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
335 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH TUESDAY...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY. WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW FROM MID WEEK ONWARD ALONG WITH HIGHER
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE
AND A WARMING TREND. THE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES WILL CONTINUE TO
BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE LATE IN THE DAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NEAR THE CREST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING. OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON MORE OF THE SAME WITH CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM WERE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUING TODAY KEEPING SKIES CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA. TOPS OF THE
MARINE LAYER BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET SO ONCE AGAIN NO REAL
BREAKOUT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE THE LOW DRIFTING SOUTH
THIS MORNING AND GIVEN THE DEEP MARINE LAYER A LITTLE EXTRA LIFT
COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCAL DRIZZLE. BY 00Z TUESDAY UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF EASTERN WASHINGTON. AIR MASS OVER THE
CASCADES BECOMING SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ADDED ON TO
SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS IN THE LOWLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

UPPER LEVEL LOW NOT MOVING MUCH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE LOW
CENTER MODELED TO BE NEAR PASCO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LOW IN
THE VICINITY THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING IN THE
CASCADES. FOR THE LOWLANDS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY BUT BEGINS TO WEAKEN A TOUCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON INCREASING
THE CHANCES FOR A LITTLE SUN LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT LOW TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

UPPER LEVEL LOW KICKS OUT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OFFSHORE. THE SLOW
TREND OF WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING
IN A LITTLE SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO NOT
WARM MUCH WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ONLY RISING FROM AROUND PLUS
8 ON TUESDAY TO PLUS 10 ON WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW STILL STRONG
ENOUGH FOR PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE INTERIOR WITH THE CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MOS SEEMS A LITTLE OVER
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARM UP WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW STILL PRESENT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL UNDERCUT THE GUIDANCE BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES GOING FOR 60S AND LOWER 70S INLAND WHILE KEEPING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST. EVEN WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OFFSHORE
THE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOMING SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE LATE IN THE DAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY NEAR THE
CREST.

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED MODELS WHICH HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE
LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS HAVE LOST A BIT OF CONSISTENCY BOTH AMONG THE
INDIVIDUAL MODELS AND RUN TO RUN. GFS SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER WITH
THIS FEATURE BECAUSE OF YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO
CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH
THIS FEATURE. BOTH MODELS STILL HAVE DECENT 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON...MID 570 DMS AND WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW.
WILL STAY WITH THE IDEA OF CONTINUING THE WARMING TREND ON THURSDAY
WITH PLENTY OF HIGHS IN THE 70S OVER THE INTERIOR. ECMWF CONTINUES
TO DROP THE LOW SOUTH ON FRIDAY INDUCING A STRONGER ONSHORE PATTERN
VERSUS THE GFS WHICH HAS THE LOW MUCH FURTHER NORTH. THE ECMWF DOES
KEEP THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE LOW NORTH OF THE BORDER. ON SATURDAY
THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW BACK TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION
CONTINUES TO PUT THE LOW FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST. MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING
NEAR HAIDA GWAII ON SUNDAY. CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS THE WARMER...BY
ABOUT 5 DEGREES...GFS SOLUTION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON THE COAST AND MID 60S TO MID 70S OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH THE WARMEST DAY BEING FRIDAY. WITH THE NEWER SOLUTIONS
IN THE EXTENDED RUNS THIS MORNING WILL LET THE CURRENT FORECAST RIDE
FOR ANOTHER FORECAST PACKAGE. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH TUESDAY. LIGHT NW FLOW
ALOFT. AIR MASS IS MOIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND SOMEWHAT MOIST
ALOFT. STABLE CONDITIONS EXCEPT SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ALONG THE CASCADE
CREST.

THE UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND WEAK LIFT MAY PRODUCE
PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD MVFR IS LIKELY THIS MORNING
WITH PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS WHERE DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BRIEFLY SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT SHOULD FILL BACK
IN OVERNIGHT.

 KSEA...CEILING AROUND 1-3K FT WILL RISE TO 4K FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. THE DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN
INTACT. SW WIND 6-10 KT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WILL EACH EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
WEAKEN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KSEW 251035
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
335 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH TUESDAY...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY. WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW FROM MID WEEK ONWARD ALONG WITH HIGHER
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE
AND A WARMING TREND. THE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES WILL CONTINUE TO
BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE LATE IN THE DAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NEAR THE CREST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING. OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON MORE OF THE SAME WITH CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM WERE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUING TODAY KEEPING SKIES CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA. TOPS OF THE
MARINE LAYER BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET SO ONCE AGAIN NO REAL
BREAKOUT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE THE LOW DRIFTING SOUTH
THIS MORNING AND GIVEN THE DEEP MARINE LAYER A LITTLE EXTRA LIFT
COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCAL DRIZZLE. BY 00Z TUESDAY UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF EASTERN WASHINGTON. AIR MASS OVER THE
CASCADES BECOMING SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ADDED ON TO
SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS IN THE LOWLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

UPPER LEVEL LOW NOT MOVING MUCH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE LOW
CENTER MODELED TO BE NEAR PASCO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LOW IN
THE VICINITY THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING IN THE
CASCADES. FOR THE LOWLANDS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY BUT BEGINS TO WEAKEN A TOUCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON INCREASING
THE CHANCES FOR A LITTLE SUN LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT LOW TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

UPPER LEVEL LOW KICKS OUT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OFFSHORE. THE SLOW
TREND OF WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING
IN A LITTLE SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO NOT
WARM MUCH WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ONLY RISING FROM AROUND PLUS
8 ON TUESDAY TO PLUS 10 ON WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW STILL STRONG
ENOUGH FOR PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE INTERIOR WITH THE CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MOS SEEMS A LITTLE OVER
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARM UP WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW STILL PRESENT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL UNDERCUT THE GUIDANCE BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES GOING FOR 60S AND LOWER 70S INLAND WHILE KEEPING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST. EVEN WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OFFSHORE
THE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOMING SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE LATE IN THE DAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY NEAR THE
CREST.

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED MODELS WHICH HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE
LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS HAVE LOST A BIT OF CONSISTENCY BOTH AMONG THE
INDIVIDUAL MODELS AND RUN TO RUN. GFS SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER WITH
THIS FEATURE BECAUSE OF YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO
CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH
THIS FEATURE. BOTH MODELS STILL HAVE DECENT 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON...MID 570 DMS AND WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW.
WILL STAY WITH THE IDEA OF CONTINUING THE WARMING TREND ON THURSDAY
WITH PLENTY OF HIGHS IN THE 70S OVER THE INTERIOR. ECMWF CONTINUES
TO DROP THE LOW SOUTH ON FRIDAY INDUCING A STRONGER ONSHORE PATTERN
VERSUS THE GFS WHICH HAS THE LOW MUCH FURTHER NORTH. THE ECMWF DOES
KEEP THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE LOW NORTH OF THE BORDER. ON SATURDAY
THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW BACK TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION
CONTINUES TO PUT THE LOW FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST. MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING
NEAR HAIDA GWAII ON SUNDAY. CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS THE WARMER...BY
ABOUT 5 DEGREES...GFS SOLUTION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON THE COAST AND MID 60S TO MID 70S OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH THE WARMEST DAY BEING FRIDAY. WITH THE NEWER SOLUTIONS
IN THE EXTENDED RUNS THIS MORNING WILL LET THE CURRENT FORECAST RIDE
FOR ANOTHER FORECAST PACKAGE. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH TUESDAY. LIGHT NW FLOW
ALOFT. AIR MASS IS MOIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND SOMEWHAT MOIST
ALOFT. STABLE CONDITIONS EXCEPT SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ALONG THE CASCADE
CREST.

THE UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND WEAK LIFT MAY PRODUCE
PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD MVFR IS LIKELY THIS MORNING
WITH PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS WHERE DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BRIEFLY SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT SHOULD FILL BACK
IN OVERNIGHT.

 KSEA...CEILING AROUND 1-3K FT WILL RISE TO 4K FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. THE DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN
INTACT. SW WIND 6-10 KT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WILL EACH EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
WEAKEN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KOTX 250954
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
254 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system will bring scattered afternoon
and evening thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest today through
Wednesday. Locally heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and small
hail will be possible the next several days. Low pressure will
gradually depart by Thursday bringing a decrease in precipitation
chances. Next weekend looks like it will be quite warm with
afternoon temperatures well into the 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Memorial Day through Tuesday night: Satellite imagery early this
morning shows a tightly wrapped upper level low centered over
southern BC. Showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue to
form on the eastern portion of the upper level low through the
morning hours. This will include areas primarily northeast of a
line from Republic to Pullman. The upper level low will slowly
track over the northern portion of the WA Cascades and over the
Waterville Plateau through this afternoon. Water vapor satellite
imagery shows a dry slot extending across the northwest portion of
the forecast area through 2:00 AM this morning. This drier air
will also progress eastward through the day. This will result in a
decreasing chance for convective showers and thunderstorms from
west to east across portions of extreme eastern WA. However,
colder temperatures aloft associated with the upper level low will
result in steepening mid level lapse rates from the East Slopes of
the Northern Cascades to the Northeast Mtns and into the western
portion of the basin. This will result in showers increasing
through the late morning and afternoon hours across these areas.
Thunderstorms are also expected to occur as the atmosphere
destabilizes in the afternoon. These thunderstorms will be slow
moving and contain very heavy rainfall. Greatest coverage of
showers and thunderstorms is expected over the northern mountains
and mainly north of Lake Chelan in the Cascades over to the
Northeast Mtns. Heavy rainfall will be a concern for the recent
burn scars. Greatest concern this afternoon will be for the
potential of flash flooding and/or debris flows over and near the
Carlton Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars. Recent burn scars
south of Lake Chelan will also see the possibility for heavy
rainfall today, but chances are not quite as high.

The center of the upper level low will shift more into the basin
on Tuesday. This will result in another day of increased
convective activity through the late morning and afternoon hours.
All areas will see at least a chance for some isolated
thunderstorms. Chances will be a bit higher for thunderstorms
further south across the east slopes of the norther Cascades. This
will result in a better chance for heavy rainfall over the
Chiwaukum, Mills Canyon and Colokum Tarps burn scars, as well as,
the Carlton Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars. P-wats will be a
bit higher on Tuesday and is expected to be greater risk for flash
flooding and/or debris flows at or near these burn scars compared
to today.

Temperatures will be noticeably cooler today compared to the past
few days. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid and
upper 60s and 70s across the region. Expect similar temperatures
on Tuesday. /SVH

Wednesday and Thursday: Our slow moving upper low is expected to
drift into northeast Oregon and the southern Idaho Panhandle on
Wednesday. Our highest concentration of showers and thunderstorms
should be in the vicinity of the 500mb cold pool including the
Blue Mountains, Camas Prairie, and Clearwater Mountains. The NAM,
GFS, ECWMF and SREF produce a secondary convective signal over the
northern Washington Cascades. So Wednesday has the potential to be
another day of closely monitoring the Cascade Burn Scars. By
Thursday, our pesky low should be over southern Idaho and northern
Utah leaving the Inland Northwest under the influence of weak
residual cyclonic 500mb flow...namely over the Idaho Panhandle.
With less upper support, afternoon/evening thunderstorms should be
more terrain based. The lowlands of the Columbia Basin, Palouse,
and West Plains will probably be free of showers while the
mountains have a shot at scattered diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms.

Friday through Sunday: The Pacific Northwest will be between a
weak upper ridge building over the Great Basin and an elongated,
strung-out trough over southwestern Canada Friday through Sunday.
The evening run of the medium range models are not as warm for the
upcoming weekend, but still suggest well above average
temperatures. It is doubtful that any given day between Friday and
Sunday will be completely free of showers, but it is tough to
figure what areas stand the best shot of convection given the
subtle differences in the strength of the ridge to the south and
the trough to the north. Even though the ECMWF and GFS have backed
off on their 20C and warmer 850mb temperatures for next weekend,
places like Lewiston, Moses Lake, Wenatchee, and Omak could have a
shot at hitting 90 degrees Friday, Saturday or Sunday for the
first time this year. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A closed low in southern BC will drop south into
northern WA through Monday. This will result in showers and
scattered thunderstorms especially for the northern mountains and
Idaho Panhandle given the cold pool aloft with the low over the
area. The highest coverage of thunderstorm activity will be during
peak heating (20z Mon-02z Tue) but isolated nocturnal
thunderstorms will continue overnight into Monday morning with mid
level instability in place over Northeast Washington and North
Idaho. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        70  51  70  52  76  54 /  40  40  70  40  30  20
Coeur d`Alene  67  49  69  50  75  51 /  60  40  70  40  40  30
Pullman        68  45  68  47  72  49 /  20  10  40  30  40  20
Lewiston       77  53  74  55  78  56 /  20  10  30  20  30  20
Colville       70  50  73  50  82  51 /  80  70  70  40  30  30
Sandpoint      64  47  69  49  74  50 /  70  50  70  50  40  30
Kellogg        67  45  68  47  73  49 /  80  50  70  50  50  40
Moses Lake     78  53  78  53  83  55 /  20  20  20  20  10  10
Wenatchee      77  57  76  59  83  60 /  30  20  50  30  20  20
Omak           76  50  76  51  82  52 /  70  70  70  40  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 250954
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
254 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system will bring scattered afternoon
and evening thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest today through
Wednesday. Locally heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and small
hail will be possible the next several days. Low pressure will
gradually depart by Thursday bringing a decrease in precipitation
chances. Next weekend looks like it will be quite warm with
afternoon temperatures well into the 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Memorial Day through Tuesday night: Satellite imagery early this
morning shows a tightly wrapped upper level low centered over
southern BC. Showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue to
form on the eastern portion of the upper level low through the
morning hours. This will include areas primarily northeast of a
line from Republic to Pullman. The upper level low will slowly
track over the northern portion of the WA Cascades and over the
Waterville Plateau through this afternoon. Water vapor satellite
imagery shows a dry slot extending across the northwest portion of
the forecast area through 2:00 AM this morning. This drier air
will also progress eastward through the day. This will result in a
decreasing chance for convective showers and thunderstorms from
west to east across portions of extreme eastern WA. However,
colder temperatures aloft associated with the upper level low will
result in steepening mid level lapse rates from the East Slopes of
the Northern Cascades to the Northeast Mtns and into the western
portion of the basin. This will result in showers increasing
through the late morning and afternoon hours across these areas.
Thunderstorms are also expected to occur as the atmosphere
destabilizes in the afternoon. These thunderstorms will be slow
moving and contain very heavy rainfall. Greatest coverage of
showers and thunderstorms is expected over the northern mountains
and mainly north of Lake Chelan in the Cascades over to the
Northeast Mtns. Heavy rainfall will be a concern for the recent
burn scars. Greatest concern this afternoon will be for the
potential of flash flooding and/or debris flows over and near the
Carlton Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars. Recent burn scars
south of Lake Chelan will also see the possibility for heavy
rainfall today, but chances are not quite as high.

The center of the upper level low will shift more into the basin
on Tuesday. This will result in another day of increased
convective activity through the late morning and afternoon hours.
All areas will see at least a chance for some isolated
thunderstorms. Chances will be a bit higher for thunderstorms
further south across the east slopes of the norther Cascades. This
will result in a better chance for heavy rainfall over the
Chiwaukum, Mills Canyon and Colokum Tarps burn scars, as well as,
the Carlton Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars. P-wats will be a
bit higher on Tuesday and is expected to be greater risk for flash
flooding and/or debris flows at or near these burn scars compared
to today.

Temperatures will be noticeably cooler today compared to the past
few days. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid and
upper 60s and 70s across the region. Expect similar temperatures
on Tuesday. /SVH

Wednesday and Thursday: Our slow moving upper low is expected to
drift into northeast Oregon and the southern Idaho Panhandle on
Wednesday. Our highest concentration of showers and thunderstorms
should be in the vicinity of the 500mb cold pool including the
Blue Mountains, Camas Prairie, and Clearwater Mountains. The NAM,
GFS, ECWMF and SREF produce a secondary convective signal over the
northern Washington Cascades. So Wednesday has the potential to be
another day of closely monitoring the Cascade Burn Scars. By
Thursday, our pesky low should be over southern Idaho and northern
Utah leaving the Inland Northwest under the influence of weak
residual cyclonic 500mb flow...namely over the Idaho Panhandle.
With less upper support, afternoon/evening thunderstorms should be
more terrain based. The lowlands of the Columbia Basin, Palouse,
and West Plains will probably be free of showers while the
mountains have a shot at scattered diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms.

Friday through Sunday: The Pacific Northwest will be between a
weak upper ridge building over the Great Basin and an elongated,
strung-out trough over southwestern Canada Friday through Sunday.
The evening run of the medium range models are not as warm for the
upcoming weekend, but still suggest well above average
temperatures. It is doubtful that any given day between Friday and
Sunday will be completely free of showers, but it is tough to
figure what areas stand the best shot of convection given the
subtle differences in the strength of the ridge to the south and
the trough to the north. Even though the ECMWF and GFS have backed
off on their 20C and warmer 850mb temperatures for next weekend,
places like Lewiston, Moses Lake, Wenatchee, and Omak could have a
shot at hitting 90 degrees Friday, Saturday or Sunday for the
first time this year. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A closed low in southern BC will drop south into
northern WA through Monday. This will result in showers and
scattered thunderstorms especially for the northern mountains and
Idaho Panhandle given the cold pool aloft with the low over the
area. The highest coverage of thunderstorm activity will be during
peak heating (20z Mon-02z Tue) but isolated nocturnal
thunderstorms will continue overnight into Monday morning with mid
level instability in place over Northeast Washington and North
Idaho. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        70  51  70  52  76  54 /  40  40  70  40  30  20
Coeur d`Alene  67  49  69  50  75  51 /  60  40  70  40  40  30
Pullman        68  45  68  47  72  49 /  20  10  40  30  40  20
Lewiston       77  53  74  55  78  56 /  20  10  30  20  30  20
Colville       70  50  73  50  82  51 /  80  70  70  40  30  30
Sandpoint      64  47  69  49  74  50 /  70  50  70  50  40  30
Kellogg        67  45  68  47  73  49 /  80  50  70  50  50  40
Moses Lake     78  53  78  53  83  55 /  20  20  20  20  10  10
Wenatchee      77  57  76  59  83  60 /  30  20  50  30  20  20
Omak           76  50  76  51  82  52 /  70  70  70  40  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 250954
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
254 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system will bring scattered afternoon
and evening thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest today through
Wednesday. Locally heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and small
hail will be possible the next several days. Low pressure will
gradually depart by Thursday bringing a decrease in precipitation
chances. Next weekend looks like it will be quite warm with
afternoon temperatures well into the 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Memorial Day through Tuesday night: Satellite imagery early this
morning shows a tightly wrapped upper level low centered over
southern BC. Showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue to
form on the eastern portion of the upper level low through the
morning hours. This will include areas primarily northeast of a
line from Republic to Pullman. The upper level low will slowly
track over the northern portion of the WA Cascades and over the
Waterville Plateau through this afternoon. Water vapor satellite
imagery shows a dry slot extending across the northwest portion of
the forecast area through 2:00 AM this morning. This drier air
will also progress eastward through the day. This will result in a
decreasing chance for convective showers and thunderstorms from
west to east across portions of extreme eastern WA. However,
colder temperatures aloft associated with the upper level low will
result in steepening mid level lapse rates from the East Slopes of
the Northern Cascades to the Northeast Mtns and into the western
portion of the basin. This will result in showers increasing
through the late morning and afternoon hours across these areas.
Thunderstorms are also expected to occur as the atmosphere
destabilizes in the afternoon. These thunderstorms will be slow
moving and contain very heavy rainfall. Greatest coverage of
showers and thunderstorms is expected over the northern mountains
and mainly north of Lake Chelan in the Cascades over to the
Northeast Mtns. Heavy rainfall will be a concern for the recent
burn scars. Greatest concern this afternoon will be for the
potential of flash flooding and/or debris flows over and near the
Carlton Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars. Recent burn scars
south of Lake Chelan will also see the possibility for heavy
rainfall today, but chances are not quite as high.

The center of the upper level low will shift more into the basin
on Tuesday. This will result in another day of increased
convective activity through the late morning and afternoon hours.
All areas will see at least a chance for some isolated
thunderstorms. Chances will be a bit higher for thunderstorms
further south across the east slopes of the norther Cascades. This
will result in a better chance for heavy rainfall over the
Chiwaukum, Mills Canyon and Colokum Tarps burn scars, as well as,
the Carlton Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars. P-wats will be a
bit higher on Tuesday and is expected to be greater risk for flash
flooding and/or debris flows at or near these burn scars compared
to today.

Temperatures will be noticeably cooler today compared to the past
few days. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid and
upper 60s and 70s across the region. Expect similar temperatures
on Tuesday. /SVH

Wednesday and Thursday: Our slow moving upper low is expected to
drift into northeast Oregon and the southern Idaho Panhandle on
Wednesday. Our highest concentration of showers and thunderstorms
should be in the vicinity of the 500mb cold pool including the
Blue Mountains, Camas Prairie, and Clearwater Mountains. The NAM,
GFS, ECWMF and SREF produce a secondary convective signal over the
northern Washington Cascades. So Wednesday has the potential to be
another day of closely monitoring the Cascade Burn Scars. By
Thursday, our pesky low should be over southern Idaho and northern
Utah leaving the Inland Northwest under the influence of weak
residual cyclonic 500mb flow...namely over the Idaho Panhandle.
With less upper support, afternoon/evening thunderstorms should be
more terrain based. The lowlands of the Columbia Basin, Palouse,
and West Plains will probably be free of showers while the
mountains have a shot at scattered diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms.

Friday through Sunday: The Pacific Northwest will be between a
weak upper ridge building over the Great Basin and an elongated,
strung-out trough over southwestern Canada Friday through Sunday.
The evening run of the medium range models are not as warm for the
upcoming weekend, but still suggest well above average
temperatures. It is doubtful that any given day between Friday and
Sunday will be completely free of showers, but it is tough to
figure what areas stand the best shot of convection given the
subtle differences in the strength of the ridge to the south and
the trough to the north. Even though the ECMWF and GFS have backed
off on their 20C and warmer 850mb temperatures for next weekend,
places like Lewiston, Moses Lake, Wenatchee, and Omak could have a
shot at hitting 90 degrees Friday, Saturday or Sunday for the
first time this year. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A closed low in southern BC will drop south into
northern WA through Monday. This will result in showers and
scattered thunderstorms especially for the northern mountains and
Idaho Panhandle given the cold pool aloft with the low over the
area. The highest coverage of thunderstorm activity will be during
peak heating (20z Mon-02z Tue) but isolated nocturnal
thunderstorms will continue overnight into Monday morning with mid
level instability in place over Northeast Washington and North
Idaho. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        70  51  70  52  76  54 /  40  40  70  40  30  20
Coeur d`Alene  67  49  69  50  75  51 /  60  40  70  40  40  30
Pullman        68  45  68  47  72  49 /  20  10  40  30  40  20
Lewiston       77  53  74  55  78  56 /  20  10  30  20  30  20
Colville       70  50  73  50  82  51 /  80  70  70  40  30  30
Sandpoint      64  47  69  49  74  50 /  70  50  70  50  40  30
Kellogg        67  45  68  47  73  49 /  80  50  70  50  50  40
Moses Lake     78  53  78  53  83  55 /  20  20  20  20  10  10
Wenatchee      77  57  76  59  83  60 /  30  20  50  30  20  20
Omak           76  50  76  51  82  52 /  70  70  70  40  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 250954
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
254 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system will bring scattered afternoon
and evening thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest today through
Wednesday. Locally heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and small
hail will be possible the next several days. Low pressure will
gradually depart by Thursday bringing a decrease in precipitation
chances. Next weekend looks like it will be quite warm with
afternoon temperatures well into the 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Memorial Day through Tuesday night: Satellite imagery early this
morning shows a tightly wrapped upper level low centered over
southern BC. Showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue to
form on the eastern portion of the upper level low through the
morning hours. This will include areas primarily northeast of a
line from Republic to Pullman. The upper level low will slowly
track over the northern portion of the WA Cascades and over the
Waterville Plateau through this afternoon. Water vapor satellite
imagery shows a dry slot extending across the northwest portion of
the forecast area through 2:00 AM this morning. This drier air
will also progress eastward through the day. This will result in a
decreasing chance for convective showers and thunderstorms from
west to east across portions of extreme eastern WA. However,
colder temperatures aloft associated with the upper level low will
result in steepening mid level lapse rates from the East Slopes of
the Northern Cascades to the Northeast Mtns and into the western
portion of the basin. This will result in showers increasing
through the late morning and afternoon hours across these areas.
Thunderstorms are also expected to occur as the atmosphere
destabilizes in the afternoon. These thunderstorms will be slow
moving and contain very heavy rainfall. Greatest coverage of
showers and thunderstorms is expected over the northern mountains
and mainly north of Lake Chelan in the Cascades over to the
Northeast Mtns. Heavy rainfall will be a concern for the recent
burn scars. Greatest concern this afternoon will be for the
potential of flash flooding and/or debris flows over and near the
Carlton Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars. Recent burn scars
south of Lake Chelan will also see the possibility for heavy
rainfall today, but chances are not quite as high.

The center of the upper level low will shift more into the basin
on Tuesday. This will result in another day of increased
convective activity through the late morning and afternoon hours.
All areas will see at least a chance for some isolated
thunderstorms. Chances will be a bit higher for thunderstorms
further south across the east slopes of the norther Cascades. This
will result in a better chance for heavy rainfall over the
Chiwaukum, Mills Canyon and Colokum Tarps burn scars, as well as,
the Carlton Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars. P-wats will be a
bit higher on Tuesday and is expected to be greater risk for flash
flooding and/or debris flows at or near these burn scars compared
to today.

Temperatures will be noticeably cooler today compared to the past
few days. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid and
upper 60s and 70s across the region. Expect similar temperatures
on Tuesday. /SVH

Wednesday and Thursday: Our slow moving upper low is expected to
drift into northeast Oregon and the southern Idaho Panhandle on
Wednesday. Our highest concentration of showers and thunderstorms
should be in the vicinity of the 500mb cold pool including the
Blue Mountains, Camas Prairie, and Clearwater Mountains. The NAM,
GFS, ECWMF and SREF produce a secondary convective signal over the
northern Washington Cascades. So Wednesday has the potential to be
another day of closely monitoring the Cascade Burn Scars. By
Thursday, our pesky low should be over southern Idaho and northern
Utah leaving the Inland Northwest under the influence of weak
residual cyclonic 500mb flow...namely over the Idaho Panhandle.
With less upper support, afternoon/evening thunderstorms should be
more terrain based. The lowlands of the Columbia Basin, Palouse,
and West Plains will probably be free of showers while the
mountains have a shot at scattered diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms.

Friday through Sunday: The Pacific Northwest will be between a
weak upper ridge building over the Great Basin and an elongated,
strung-out trough over southwestern Canada Friday through Sunday.
The evening run of the medium range models are not as warm for the
upcoming weekend, but still suggest well above average
temperatures. It is doubtful that any given day between Friday and
Sunday will be completely free of showers, but it is tough to
figure what areas stand the best shot of convection given the
subtle differences in the strength of the ridge to the south and
the trough to the north. Even though the ECMWF and GFS have backed
off on their 20C and warmer 850mb temperatures for next weekend,
places like Lewiston, Moses Lake, Wenatchee, and Omak could have a
shot at hitting 90 degrees Friday, Saturday or Sunday for the
first time this year. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A closed low in southern BC will drop south into
northern WA through Monday. This will result in showers and
scattered thunderstorms especially for the northern mountains and
Idaho Panhandle given the cold pool aloft with the low over the
area. The highest coverage of thunderstorm activity will be during
peak heating (20z Mon-02z Tue) but isolated nocturnal
thunderstorms will continue overnight into Monday morning with mid
level instability in place over Northeast Washington and North
Idaho. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        70  51  70  52  76  54 /  40  40  70  40  30  20
Coeur d`Alene  67  49  69  50  75  51 /  60  40  70  40  40  30
Pullman        68  45  68  47  72  49 /  20  10  40  30  40  20
Lewiston       77  53  74  55  78  56 /  20  10  30  20  30  20
Colville       70  50  73  50  82  51 /  80  70  70  40  30  30
Sandpoint      64  47  69  49  74  50 /  70  50  70  50  40  30
Kellogg        67  45  68  47  73  49 /  80  50  70  50  50  40
Moses Lake     78  53  78  53  83  55 /  20  20  20  20  10  10
Wenatchee      77  57  76  59  83  60 /  30  20  50  30  20  20
Omak           76  50  76  51  82  52 /  70  70  70  40  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 250954
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
254 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system will bring scattered afternoon
and evening thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest today through
Wednesday. Locally heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and small
hail will be possible the next several days. Low pressure will
gradually depart by Thursday bringing a decrease in precipitation
chances. Next weekend looks like it will be quite warm with
afternoon temperatures well into the 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Memorial Day through Tuesday night: Satellite imagery early this
morning shows a tightly wrapped upper level low centered over
southern BC. Showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue to
form on the eastern portion of the upper level low through the
morning hours. This will include areas primarily northeast of a
line from Republic to Pullman. The upper level low will slowly
track over the northern portion of the WA Cascades and over the
Waterville Plateau through this afternoon. Water vapor satellite
imagery shows a dry slot extending across the northwest portion of
the forecast area through 2:00 AM this morning. This drier air
will also progress eastward through the day. This will result in a
decreasing chance for convective showers and thunderstorms from
west to east across portions of extreme eastern WA. However,
colder temperatures aloft associated with the upper level low will
result in steepening mid level lapse rates from the East Slopes of
the Northern Cascades to the Northeast Mtns and into the western
portion of the basin. This will result in showers increasing
through the late morning and afternoon hours across these areas.
Thunderstorms are also expected to occur as the atmosphere
destabilizes in the afternoon. These thunderstorms will be slow
moving and contain very heavy rainfall. Greatest coverage of
showers and thunderstorms is expected over the northern mountains
and mainly north of Lake Chelan in the Cascades over to the
Northeast Mtns. Heavy rainfall will be a concern for the recent
burn scars. Greatest concern this afternoon will be for the
potential of flash flooding and/or debris flows over and near the
Carlton Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars. Recent burn scars
south of Lake Chelan will also see the possibility for heavy
rainfall today, but chances are not quite as high.

The center of the upper level low will shift more into the basin
on Tuesday. This will result in another day of increased
convective activity through the late morning and afternoon hours.
All areas will see at least a chance for some isolated
thunderstorms. Chances will be a bit higher for thunderstorms
further south across the east slopes of the norther Cascades. This
will result in a better chance for heavy rainfall over the
Chiwaukum, Mills Canyon and Colokum Tarps burn scars, as well as,
the Carlton Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars. P-wats will be a
bit higher on Tuesday and is expected to be greater risk for flash
flooding and/or debris flows at or near these burn scars compared
to today.

Temperatures will be noticeably cooler today compared to the past
few days. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid and
upper 60s and 70s across the region. Expect similar temperatures
on Tuesday. /SVH

Wednesday and Thursday: Our slow moving upper low is expected to
drift into northeast Oregon and the southern Idaho Panhandle on
Wednesday. Our highest concentration of showers and thunderstorms
should be in the vicinity of the 500mb cold pool including the
Blue Mountains, Camas Prairie, and Clearwater Mountains. The NAM,
GFS, ECWMF and SREF produce a secondary convective signal over the
northern Washington Cascades. So Wednesday has the potential to be
another day of closely monitoring the Cascade Burn Scars. By
Thursday, our pesky low should be over southern Idaho and northern
Utah leaving the Inland Northwest under the influence of weak
residual cyclonic 500mb flow...namely over the Idaho Panhandle.
With less upper support, afternoon/evening thunderstorms should be
more terrain based. The lowlands of the Columbia Basin, Palouse,
and West Plains will probably be free of showers while the
mountains have a shot at scattered diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms.

Friday through Sunday: The Pacific Northwest will be between a
weak upper ridge building over the Great Basin and an elongated,
strung-out trough over southwestern Canada Friday through Sunday.
The evening run of the medium range models are not as warm for the
upcoming weekend, but still suggest well above average
temperatures. It is doubtful that any given day between Friday and
Sunday will be completely free of showers, but it is tough to
figure what areas stand the best shot of convection given the
subtle differences in the strength of the ridge to the south and
the trough to the north. Even though the ECMWF and GFS have backed
off on their 20C and warmer 850mb temperatures for next weekend,
places like Lewiston, Moses Lake, Wenatchee, and Omak could have a
shot at hitting 90 degrees Friday, Saturday or Sunday for the
first time this year. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A closed low in southern BC will drop south into
northern WA through Monday. This will result in showers and
scattered thunderstorms especially for the northern mountains and
Idaho Panhandle given the cold pool aloft with the low over the
area. The highest coverage of thunderstorm activity will be during
peak heating (20z Mon-02z Tue) but isolated nocturnal
thunderstorms will continue overnight into Monday morning with mid
level instability in place over Northeast Washington and North
Idaho. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        70  51  70  52  76  54 /  40  40  70  40  30  20
Coeur d`Alene  67  49  69  50  75  51 /  60  40  70  40  40  30
Pullman        68  45  68  47  72  49 /  20  10  40  30  40  20
Lewiston       77  53  74  55  78  56 /  20  10  30  20  30  20
Colville       70  50  73  50  82  51 /  80  70  70  40  30  30
Sandpoint      64  47  69  49  74  50 /  70  50  70  50  40  30
Kellogg        67  45  68  47  73  49 /  80  50  70  50  50  40
Moses Lake     78  53  78  53  83  55 /  20  20  20  20  10  10
Wenatchee      77  57  76  59  83  60 /  30  20  50  30  20  20
Omak           76  50  76  51  82  52 /  70  70  70  40  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KPQR 250911
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
212 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN B.C. WILL SLOWLY MOVE
INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY AND INTO IDAHO LATER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH LITTLE CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOONS. IT WILL ALSO PROVIDE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME NIGHT AND MORNING DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA...AS
WELL AS A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM IN THE HIGHER
CASCADES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WEAKENING THE ONSHORE FLOW AND
ALLOWING MORE SUNSHINE TO BREAK THROUGH WITH TEMPS WARMING ABOVE
NORMAL. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEKEND MAY BRING A RETURN TO THE
MARINE LAYER AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES
AGAIN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...MARINE AIR MASS REMAINED OVER NW OREGON AND SW WA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A LITTLE DRIZZLE HAS
BEEN REPORTED NEAR THE N OREGON AND S WA COAST...BUT SO FAR WAS NOT
WIDESPREAD. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES
MOVING SE OVER SOUTHERN BC. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SE
INTO EASTERN WA TODAY...AND EVENTAULLY INTO IDAHO BY WED. A MORE
WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING ACROSS THE N PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL TEND TO MAKE FOR A MORE PERSISTENT MARINE CLOUD LAYER IN
THE N TODAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT A PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUE WITH
CLOUDS REMAINING ALONG THE COAST...AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
LATE IN THE DAY INLAND. AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES BY TO THE NE...WILL
KEEP A MENTION OF NIGHTTIME AND MORNING DRIZZLE FOR THE N PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE S WA CASCADE WHERE INSTABILITY WITH BE BEST DUE TO COOL
POOL ALOFT.

BY WED THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E INTO IDAHO...AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRES OFFSHORE PUSHES CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS WEAKENS THE
ONSHORE FLOW A BIT...MAKING THE LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS BREAKING UP IN
THE AFTERNOON GREATER. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM SOME,,,TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INLAND WED. WILL NEED TO KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADES WED A MORE
UNSTABLE WRAPS AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACNW
MIDWEEK...DRYING OUT THE REGION. CONTINUED WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MARINE CLOUDS INLAND OVERNIGHT...BUT STRATUS
SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART CLEAR OUT BY MIDDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S AND MAYBE LOW 80S INLAND. A THERMAL LOW
DEVELOPS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY AND STARTS TO PUSH
NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH COULD HELP DEVELOP SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CREST OF
THE CASCADES ON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BACKGROUND FLOW WILL BE OUT
OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST THOUGH...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THESE STORMS FROM
DRIFTING WESTWARD INTO THE VALLEY. -MCCOY &&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR CIGS INLAND WITH SPOTTY IFR CIGS AT THE
COAST THIS MORNING. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING
BUT STILL LEAVE THE NORTH OREGON COAST UNDER MVFR CIGS WHILE THE
CENTRAL COAST MAY BREAK OUT AGAIN. ONSHORE FLOW WILL AGAIN WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TODAY ALLOWING DECENT POTENTIAL FOR THE INLAND AREAS TO
BREAK OUT FROM UNDER THE MARINE LAYER FOR SEVERAL HOURS. EXPECT TO
SEE CLOUDS FILL BACK IN WITH A 035 TO 045 AGL LAYER AFTER 26/03Z
BEFORE GRADUALLY DROPPING TO A MVFR LAYER OVERNIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS 025 TO 030 WILL PREVAIL UNTIL AROUND
18Z. THEN EXPECT LOW END VFR CIGS TO LIFT FURTHER AND SCATTER OUT
CLOSER TO 21Z. CIGS REDEVELOP AROUND 035 NEAR 26/03Z THEN
GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS. HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRES
OVER THE INLAND PAC NW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT MILD
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF ISOLATED ADVISORY GUSTS
ABOVE 21 KT SOUTH OF NEWPORT ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HOWEVER...DO NOT THINK THEY WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
ISSUING AN ADVISORY. MIXED SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS
WEEK...WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES DUE TO A FRESH NW
SWELL. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 250911
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
212 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN B.C. WILL SLOWLY MOVE
INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY AND INTO IDAHO LATER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH LITTLE CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOONS. IT WILL ALSO PROVIDE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME NIGHT AND MORNING DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA...AS
WELL AS A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM IN THE HIGHER
CASCADES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WEAKENING THE ONSHORE FLOW AND
ALLOWING MORE SUNSHINE TO BREAK THROUGH WITH TEMPS WARMING ABOVE
NORMAL. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEKEND MAY BRING A RETURN TO THE
MARINE LAYER AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES
AGAIN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...MARINE AIR MASS REMAINED OVER NW OREGON AND SW WA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A LITTLE DRIZZLE HAS
BEEN REPORTED NEAR THE N OREGON AND S WA COAST...BUT SO FAR WAS NOT
WIDESPREAD. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES
MOVING SE OVER SOUTHERN BC. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SE
INTO EASTERN WA TODAY...AND EVENTAULLY INTO IDAHO BY WED. A MORE
WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING ACROSS THE N PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL TEND TO MAKE FOR A MORE PERSISTENT MARINE CLOUD LAYER IN
THE N TODAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT A PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUE WITH
CLOUDS REMAINING ALONG THE COAST...AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
LATE IN THE DAY INLAND. AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES BY TO THE NE...WILL
KEEP A MENTION OF NIGHTTIME AND MORNING DRIZZLE FOR THE N PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE S WA CASCADE WHERE INSTABILITY WITH BE BEST DUE TO COOL
POOL ALOFT.

BY WED THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E INTO IDAHO...AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRES OFFSHORE PUSHES CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS WEAKENS THE
ONSHORE FLOW A BIT...MAKING THE LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS BREAKING UP IN
THE AFTERNOON GREATER. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM SOME,,,TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INLAND WED. WILL NEED TO KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADES WED A MORE
UNSTABLE WRAPS AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACNW
MIDWEEK...DRYING OUT THE REGION. CONTINUED WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MARINE CLOUDS INLAND OVERNIGHT...BUT STRATUS
SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART CLEAR OUT BY MIDDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S AND MAYBE LOW 80S INLAND. A THERMAL LOW
DEVELOPS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY AND STARTS TO PUSH
NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH COULD HELP DEVELOP SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CREST OF
THE CASCADES ON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BACKGROUND FLOW WILL BE OUT
OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST THOUGH...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THESE STORMS FROM
DRIFTING WESTWARD INTO THE VALLEY. -MCCOY &&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR CIGS INLAND WITH SPOTTY IFR CIGS AT THE
COAST THIS MORNING. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING
BUT STILL LEAVE THE NORTH OREGON COAST UNDER MVFR CIGS WHILE THE
CENTRAL COAST MAY BREAK OUT AGAIN. ONSHORE FLOW WILL AGAIN WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TODAY ALLOWING DECENT POTENTIAL FOR THE INLAND AREAS TO
BREAK OUT FROM UNDER THE MARINE LAYER FOR SEVERAL HOURS. EXPECT TO
SEE CLOUDS FILL BACK IN WITH A 035 TO 045 AGL LAYER AFTER 26/03Z
BEFORE GRADUALLY DROPPING TO A MVFR LAYER OVERNIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS 025 TO 030 WILL PREVAIL UNTIL AROUND
18Z. THEN EXPECT LOW END VFR CIGS TO LIFT FURTHER AND SCATTER OUT
CLOSER TO 21Z. CIGS REDEVELOP AROUND 035 NEAR 26/03Z THEN
GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS. HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRES
OVER THE INLAND PAC NW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT MILD
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF ISOLATED ADVISORY GUSTS
ABOVE 21 KT SOUTH OF NEWPORT ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HOWEVER...DO NOT THINK THEY WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
ISSUING AN ADVISORY. MIXED SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS
WEEK...WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES DUE TO A FRESH NW
SWELL. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 250911
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
212 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN B.C. WILL SLOWLY MOVE
INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY AND INTO IDAHO LATER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH LITTLE CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOONS. IT WILL ALSO PROVIDE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME NIGHT AND MORNING DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA...AS
WELL AS A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM IN THE HIGHER
CASCADES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WEAKENING THE ONSHORE FLOW AND
ALLOWING MORE SUNSHINE TO BREAK THROUGH WITH TEMPS WARMING ABOVE
NORMAL. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEKEND MAY BRING A RETURN TO THE
MARINE LAYER AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES
AGAIN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...MARINE AIR MASS REMAINED OVER NW OREGON AND SW WA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A LITTLE DRIZZLE HAS
BEEN REPORTED NEAR THE N OREGON AND S WA COAST...BUT SO FAR WAS NOT
WIDESPREAD. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES
MOVING SE OVER SOUTHERN BC. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SE
INTO EASTERN WA TODAY...AND EVENTAULLY INTO IDAHO BY WED. A MORE
WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING ACROSS THE N PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL TEND TO MAKE FOR A MORE PERSISTENT MARINE CLOUD LAYER IN
THE N TODAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT A PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUE WITH
CLOUDS REMAINING ALONG THE COAST...AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
LATE IN THE DAY INLAND. AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES BY TO THE NE...WILL
KEEP A MENTION OF NIGHTTIME AND MORNING DRIZZLE FOR THE N PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE S WA CASCADE WHERE INSTABILITY WITH BE BEST DUE TO COOL
POOL ALOFT.

BY WED THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E INTO IDAHO...AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRES OFFSHORE PUSHES CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS WEAKENS THE
ONSHORE FLOW A BIT...MAKING THE LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS BREAKING UP IN
THE AFTERNOON GREATER. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM SOME,,,TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INLAND WED. WILL NEED TO KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADES WED A MORE
UNSTABLE WRAPS AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACNW
MIDWEEK...DRYING OUT THE REGION. CONTINUED WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MARINE CLOUDS INLAND OVERNIGHT...BUT STRATUS
SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART CLEAR OUT BY MIDDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S AND MAYBE LOW 80S INLAND. A THERMAL LOW
DEVELOPS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY AND STARTS TO PUSH
NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH COULD HELP DEVELOP SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CREST OF
THE CASCADES ON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BACKGROUND FLOW WILL BE OUT
OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST THOUGH...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THESE STORMS FROM
DRIFTING WESTWARD INTO THE VALLEY. -MCCOY &&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR CIGS INLAND WITH SPOTTY IFR CIGS AT THE
COAST THIS MORNING. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING
BUT STILL LEAVE THE NORTH OREGON COAST UNDER MVFR CIGS WHILE THE
CENTRAL COAST MAY BREAK OUT AGAIN. ONSHORE FLOW WILL AGAIN WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TODAY ALLOWING DECENT POTENTIAL FOR THE INLAND AREAS TO
BREAK OUT FROM UNDER THE MARINE LAYER FOR SEVERAL HOURS. EXPECT TO
SEE CLOUDS FILL BACK IN WITH A 035 TO 045 AGL LAYER AFTER 26/03Z
BEFORE GRADUALLY DROPPING TO A MVFR LAYER OVERNIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS 025 TO 030 WILL PREVAIL UNTIL AROUND
18Z. THEN EXPECT LOW END VFR CIGS TO LIFT FURTHER AND SCATTER OUT
CLOSER TO 21Z. CIGS REDEVELOP AROUND 035 NEAR 26/03Z THEN
GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS. HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRES
OVER THE INLAND PAC NW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT MILD
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF ISOLATED ADVISORY GUSTS
ABOVE 21 KT SOUTH OF NEWPORT ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HOWEVER...DO NOT THINK THEY WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
ISSUING AN ADVISORY. MIXED SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS
WEEK...WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES DUE TO A FRESH NW
SWELL. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 250911
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
212 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN B.C. WILL SLOWLY MOVE
INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY AND INTO IDAHO LATER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH LITTLE CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOONS. IT WILL ALSO PROVIDE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME NIGHT AND MORNING DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA...AS
WELL AS A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM IN THE HIGHER
CASCADES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WEAKENING THE ONSHORE FLOW AND
ALLOWING MORE SUNSHINE TO BREAK THROUGH WITH TEMPS WARMING ABOVE
NORMAL. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEKEND MAY BRING A RETURN TO THE
MARINE LAYER AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES
AGAIN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...MARINE AIR MASS REMAINED OVER NW OREGON AND SW WA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A LITTLE DRIZZLE HAS
BEEN REPORTED NEAR THE N OREGON AND S WA COAST...BUT SO FAR WAS NOT
WIDESPREAD. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES
MOVING SE OVER SOUTHERN BC. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SE
INTO EASTERN WA TODAY...AND EVENTAULLY INTO IDAHO BY WED. A MORE
WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING ACROSS THE N PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL TEND TO MAKE FOR A MORE PERSISTENT MARINE CLOUD LAYER IN
THE N TODAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT A PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUE WITH
CLOUDS REMAINING ALONG THE COAST...AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
LATE IN THE DAY INLAND. AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES BY TO THE NE...WILL
KEEP A MENTION OF NIGHTTIME AND MORNING DRIZZLE FOR THE N PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE S WA CASCADE WHERE INSTABILITY WITH BE BEST DUE TO COOL
POOL ALOFT.

BY WED THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E INTO IDAHO...AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRES OFFSHORE PUSHES CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS WEAKENS THE
ONSHORE FLOW A BIT...MAKING THE LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS BREAKING UP IN
THE AFTERNOON GREATER. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM SOME,,,TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INLAND WED. WILL NEED TO KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADES WED A MORE
UNSTABLE WRAPS AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACNW
MIDWEEK...DRYING OUT THE REGION. CONTINUED WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MARINE CLOUDS INLAND OVERNIGHT...BUT STRATUS
SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART CLEAR OUT BY MIDDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S AND MAYBE LOW 80S INLAND. A THERMAL LOW
DEVELOPS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY AND STARTS TO PUSH
NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH COULD HELP DEVELOP SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CREST OF
THE CASCADES ON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BACKGROUND FLOW WILL BE OUT
OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST THOUGH...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THESE STORMS FROM
DRIFTING WESTWARD INTO THE VALLEY. -MCCOY &&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR CIGS INLAND WITH SPOTTY IFR CIGS AT THE
COAST THIS MORNING. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING
BUT STILL LEAVE THE NORTH OREGON COAST UNDER MVFR CIGS WHILE THE
CENTRAL COAST MAY BREAK OUT AGAIN. ONSHORE FLOW WILL AGAIN WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TODAY ALLOWING DECENT POTENTIAL FOR THE INLAND AREAS TO
BREAK OUT FROM UNDER THE MARINE LAYER FOR SEVERAL HOURS. EXPECT TO
SEE CLOUDS FILL BACK IN WITH A 035 TO 045 AGL LAYER AFTER 26/03Z
BEFORE GRADUALLY DROPPING TO A MVFR LAYER OVERNIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS 025 TO 030 WILL PREVAIL UNTIL AROUND
18Z. THEN EXPECT LOW END VFR CIGS TO LIFT FURTHER AND SCATTER OUT
CLOSER TO 21Z. CIGS REDEVELOP AROUND 035 NEAR 26/03Z THEN
GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS. HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRES
OVER THE INLAND PAC NW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT MILD
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF ISOLATED ADVISORY GUSTS
ABOVE 21 KT SOUTH OF NEWPORT ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HOWEVER...DO NOT THINK THEY WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
ISSUING AN ADVISORY. MIXED SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS
WEEK...WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES DUE TO A FRESH NW
SWELL. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 250911
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
212 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN B.C. WILL SLOWLY MOVE
INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY AND INTO IDAHO LATER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH LITTLE CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOONS. IT WILL ALSO PROVIDE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME NIGHT AND MORNING DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA...AS
WELL AS A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM IN THE HIGHER
CASCADES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WEAKENING THE ONSHORE FLOW AND
ALLOWING MORE SUNSHINE TO BREAK THROUGH WITH TEMPS WARMING ABOVE
NORMAL. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEKEND MAY BRING A RETURN TO THE
MARINE LAYER AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES
AGAIN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...MARINE AIR MASS REMAINED OVER NW OREGON AND SW WA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A LITTLE DRIZZLE HAS
BEEN REPORTED NEAR THE N OREGON AND S WA COAST...BUT SO FAR WAS NOT
WIDESPREAD. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES
MOVING SE OVER SOUTHERN BC. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SE
INTO EASTERN WA TODAY...AND EVENTAULLY INTO IDAHO BY WED. A MORE
WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING ACROSS THE N PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL TEND TO MAKE FOR A MORE PERSISTENT MARINE CLOUD LAYER IN
THE N TODAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT A PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUE WITH
CLOUDS REMAINING ALONG THE COAST...AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
LATE IN THE DAY INLAND. AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES BY TO THE NE...WILL
KEEP A MENTION OF NIGHTTIME AND MORNING DRIZZLE FOR THE N PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE S WA CASCADE WHERE INSTABILITY WITH BE BEST DUE TO COOL
POOL ALOFT.

BY WED THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E INTO IDAHO...AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRES OFFSHORE PUSHES CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS WEAKENS THE
ONSHORE FLOW A BIT...MAKING THE LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS BREAKING UP IN
THE AFTERNOON GREATER. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM SOME,,,TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INLAND WED. WILL NEED TO KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADES WED A MORE
UNSTABLE WRAPS AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACNW
MIDWEEK...DRYING OUT THE REGION. CONTINUED WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MARINE CLOUDS INLAND OVERNIGHT...BUT STRATUS
SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART CLEAR OUT BY MIDDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S AND MAYBE LOW 80S INLAND. A THERMAL LOW
DEVELOPS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY AND STARTS TO PUSH
NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH COULD HELP DEVELOP SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CREST OF
THE CASCADES ON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BACKGROUND FLOW WILL BE OUT
OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST THOUGH...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THESE STORMS FROM
DRIFTING WESTWARD INTO THE VALLEY. -MCCOY &&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR CIGS INLAND WITH SPOTTY IFR CIGS AT THE
COAST THIS MORNING. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING
BUT STILL LEAVE THE NORTH OREGON COAST UNDER MVFR CIGS WHILE THE
CENTRAL COAST MAY BREAK OUT AGAIN. ONSHORE FLOW WILL AGAIN WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TODAY ALLOWING DECENT POTENTIAL FOR THE INLAND AREAS TO
BREAK OUT FROM UNDER THE MARINE LAYER FOR SEVERAL HOURS. EXPECT TO
SEE CLOUDS FILL BACK IN WITH A 035 TO 045 AGL LAYER AFTER 26/03Z
BEFORE GRADUALLY DROPPING TO A MVFR LAYER OVERNIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS 025 TO 030 WILL PREVAIL UNTIL AROUND
18Z. THEN EXPECT LOW END VFR CIGS TO LIFT FURTHER AND SCATTER OUT
CLOSER TO 21Z. CIGS REDEVELOP AROUND 035 NEAR 26/03Z THEN
GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS. HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRES
OVER THE INLAND PAC NW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT MILD
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF ISOLATED ADVISORY GUSTS
ABOVE 21 KT SOUTH OF NEWPORT ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HOWEVER...DO NOT THINK THEY WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
ISSUING AN ADVISORY. MIXED SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS
WEEK...WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES DUE TO A FRESH NW
SWELL. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 250531
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1031 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves into the Inland Northwest through mid-week,
providing scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and
smaller chances in the morning and night. Locally heavy rain,
small hail and gusty winds will be possible in storms. Some chance
of showers continues into the second part of the week into next
weekend, especially in the mountains. Next weekend also looks to
warm with summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery this evening indicates a closed low over
southern BC slowly moving south. Earlier today afternoon heating
helped destabilize the atmosphere leading to the development of
showers and thunderstorms over the Northern Cascades, Okanogan
Valley and Highlands, extending south into the Upper Columbia
Basin and Waterville Plateau this evening. Meanwhile a secondary
area of showers and thunderstorms was found over the Central
Panhandle Mountains.

While surface based instability is on the decrease this evening...plenty
of mid level moisture and instability is present across Northeast
Washington and North Idaho. The main area of shower and
thunderstorm activity stretching from the Upper Columbia Basin and
NE Washington Mountains is shown by the GFS, HRRR, and NAM to
swing towards N Idaho through the overnight hours. Convection
between Coeur D`Alene and Shoshone county will also get drawn
north with the approaching low. Thus...POP`s were increased in
these areas. Models also show a general increase in showers across
the Spokane area possibly extending into the palouse late this
evening and overnight. Areas along and north of I-90 over NE
Washington and N Idaho will have the best opportunity for
nocturnal thunderstorms with MUCAPE values of 300-600 J/KG during
the overnight hours. Cloudy skies will result in mild overnight
lows in the mid 50s for NE WA and N Idaho and low temps were
increased.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A closed low in southern BC will drop south into
northern WA through Monday. This will result in showers and
scattered thunderstorms especially for the northern mountains and
Idaho Panhandle given the cold pool aloft with the low over the
area. The highest coverage of thunderstorm activity will be during
peak heating (20z Mon-02z Tue) but isolated nocturnal
thunderstorms will continue overnight into Monday morning with mid
level instability in place over Northeast Washington and North
Idaho. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  71  51  73  52  77 /  60  50  40  60  40  30
Coeur d`Alene  55  70  49  73  50  75 /  70  70  40  60  40  40
Pullman        49  69  45  71  47  73 /  20  20  10  40  30  40
Lewiston       55  77  52  78  55  79 /  10  20  10  20  20  30
Colville       55  74  50  76  50  81 /  90  90  60  70  40  30
Sandpoint      54  70  48  72  49  74 /  80  70  60  60  50  40
Kellogg        53  70  46  72  47  73 /  60  80  50  60  50  50
Moses Lake     54  79  54  80  53  84 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Wenatchee      56  78  56  79  59  84 /   0  20  20  40  30  20
Omak           50  77  50  78  51  84 /  20  50  50  60  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 250531
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1031 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves into the Inland Northwest through mid-week,
providing scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and
smaller chances in the morning and night. Locally heavy rain,
small hail and gusty winds will be possible in storms. Some chance
of showers continues into the second part of the week into next
weekend, especially in the mountains. Next weekend also looks to
warm with summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery this evening indicates a closed low over
southern BC slowly moving south. Earlier today afternoon heating
helped destabilize the atmosphere leading to the development of
showers and thunderstorms over the Northern Cascades, Okanogan
Valley and Highlands, extending south into the Upper Columbia
Basin and Waterville Plateau this evening. Meanwhile a secondary
area of showers and thunderstorms was found over the Central
Panhandle Mountains.

While surface based instability is on the decrease this evening...plenty
of mid level moisture and instability is present across Northeast
Washington and North Idaho. The main area of shower and
thunderstorm activity stretching from the Upper Columbia Basin and
NE Washington Mountains is shown by the GFS, HRRR, and NAM to
swing towards N Idaho through the overnight hours. Convection
between Coeur D`Alene and Shoshone county will also get drawn
north with the approaching low. Thus...POP`s were increased in
these areas. Models also show a general increase in showers across
the Spokane area possibly extending into the palouse late this
evening and overnight. Areas along and north of I-90 over NE
Washington and N Idaho will have the best opportunity for
nocturnal thunderstorms with MUCAPE values of 300-600 J/KG during
the overnight hours. Cloudy skies will result in mild overnight
lows in the mid 50s for NE WA and N Idaho and low temps were
increased.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A closed low in southern BC will drop south into
northern WA through Monday. This will result in showers and
scattered thunderstorms especially for the northern mountains and
Idaho Panhandle given the cold pool aloft with the low over the
area. The highest coverage of thunderstorm activity will be during
peak heating (20z Mon-02z Tue) but isolated nocturnal
thunderstorms will continue overnight into Monday morning with mid
level instability in place over Northeast Washington and North
Idaho. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  71  51  73  52  77 /  60  50  40  60  40  30
Coeur d`Alene  55  70  49  73  50  75 /  70  70  40  60  40  40
Pullman        49  69  45  71  47  73 /  20  20  10  40  30  40
Lewiston       55  77  52  78  55  79 /  10  20  10  20  20  30
Colville       55  74  50  76  50  81 /  90  90  60  70  40  30
Sandpoint      54  70  48  72  49  74 /  80  70  60  60  50  40
Kellogg        53  70  46  72  47  73 /  60  80  50  60  50  50
Moses Lake     54  79  54  80  53  84 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Wenatchee      56  78  56  79  59  84 /   0  20  20  40  30  20
Omak           50  77  50  78  51  84 /  20  50  50  60  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 250531
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1031 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves into the Inland Northwest through mid-week,
providing scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and
smaller chances in the morning and night. Locally heavy rain,
small hail and gusty winds will be possible in storms. Some chance
of showers continues into the second part of the week into next
weekend, especially in the mountains. Next weekend also looks to
warm with summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery this evening indicates a closed low over
southern BC slowly moving south. Earlier today afternoon heating
helped destabilize the atmosphere leading to the development of
showers and thunderstorms over the Northern Cascades, Okanogan
Valley and Highlands, extending south into the Upper Columbia
Basin and Waterville Plateau this evening. Meanwhile a secondary
area of showers and thunderstorms was found over the Central
Panhandle Mountains.

While surface based instability is on the decrease this evening...plenty
of mid level moisture and instability is present across Northeast
Washington and North Idaho. The main area of shower and
thunderstorm activity stretching from the Upper Columbia Basin and
NE Washington Mountains is shown by the GFS, HRRR, and NAM to
swing towards N Idaho through the overnight hours. Convection
between Coeur D`Alene and Shoshone county will also get drawn
north with the approaching low. Thus...POP`s were increased in
these areas. Models also show a general increase in showers across
the Spokane area possibly extending into the palouse late this
evening and overnight. Areas along and north of I-90 over NE
Washington and N Idaho will have the best opportunity for
nocturnal thunderstorms with MUCAPE values of 300-600 J/KG during
the overnight hours. Cloudy skies will result in mild overnight
lows in the mid 50s for NE WA and N Idaho and low temps were
increased.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A closed low in southern BC will drop south into
northern WA through Monday. This will result in showers and
scattered thunderstorms especially for the northern mountains and
Idaho Panhandle given the cold pool aloft with the low over the
area. The highest coverage of thunderstorm activity will be during
peak heating (20z Mon-02z Tue) but isolated nocturnal
thunderstorms will continue overnight into Monday morning with mid
level instability in place over Northeast Washington and North
Idaho. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  71  51  73  52  77 /  60  50  40  60  40  30
Coeur d`Alene  55  70  49  73  50  75 /  70  70  40  60  40  40
Pullman        49  69  45  71  47  73 /  20  20  10  40  30  40
Lewiston       55  77  52  78  55  79 /  10  20  10  20  20  30
Colville       55  74  50  76  50  81 /  90  90  60  70  40  30
Sandpoint      54  70  48  72  49  74 /  80  70  60  60  50  40
Kellogg        53  70  46  72  47  73 /  60  80  50  60  50  50
Moses Lake     54  79  54  80  53  84 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Wenatchee      56  78  56  79  59  84 /   0  20  20  40  30  20
Omak           50  77  50  78  51  84 /  20  50  50  60  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 250531
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1031 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves into the Inland Northwest through mid-week,
providing scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and
smaller chances in the morning and night. Locally heavy rain,
small hail and gusty winds will be possible in storms. Some chance
of showers continues into the second part of the week into next
weekend, especially in the mountains. Next weekend also looks to
warm with summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery this evening indicates a closed low over
southern BC slowly moving south. Earlier today afternoon heating
helped destabilize the atmosphere leading to the development of
showers and thunderstorms over the Northern Cascades, Okanogan
Valley and Highlands, extending south into the Upper Columbia
Basin and Waterville Plateau this evening. Meanwhile a secondary
area of showers and thunderstorms was found over the Central
Panhandle Mountains.

While surface based instability is on the decrease this evening...plenty
of mid level moisture and instability is present across Northeast
Washington and North Idaho. The main area of shower and
thunderstorm activity stretching from the Upper Columbia Basin and
NE Washington Mountains is shown by the GFS, HRRR, and NAM to
swing towards N Idaho through the overnight hours. Convection
between Coeur D`Alene and Shoshone county will also get drawn
north with the approaching low. Thus...POP`s were increased in
these areas. Models also show a general increase in showers across
the Spokane area possibly extending into the palouse late this
evening and overnight. Areas along and north of I-90 over NE
Washington and N Idaho will have the best opportunity for
nocturnal thunderstorms with MUCAPE values of 300-600 J/KG during
the overnight hours. Cloudy skies will result in mild overnight
lows in the mid 50s for NE WA and N Idaho and low temps were
increased.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A closed low in southern BC will drop south into
northern WA through Monday. This will result in showers and
scattered thunderstorms especially for the northern mountains and
Idaho Panhandle given the cold pool aloft with the low over the
area. The highest coverage of thunderstorm activity will be during
peak heating (20z Mon-02z Tue) but isolated nocturnal
thunderstorms will continue overnight into Monday morning with mid
level instability in place over Northeast Washington and North
Idaho. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  71  51  73  52  77 /  60  50  40  60  40  30
Coeur d`Alene  55  70  49  73  50  75 /  70  70  40  60  40  40
Pullman        49  69  45  71  47  73 /  20  20  10  40  30  40
Lewiston       55  77  52  78  55  79 /  10  20  10  20  20  30
Colville       55  74  50  76  50  81 /  90  90  60  70  40  30
Sandpoint      54  70  48  72  49  74 /  80  70  60  60  50  40
Kellogg        53  70  46  72  47  73 /  60  80  50  60  50  50
Moses Lake     54  79  54  80  53  84 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Wenatchee      56  78  56  79  59  84 /   0  20  20  40  30  20
Omak           50  77  50  78  51  84 /  20  50  50  60  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KPQR 250417
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
841 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN B.C. THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SLOWLY MOVE INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY AND INTO IDAHO LATER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH LITTLE OR NO CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOONS. IT WILL ALSO
PROVIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME NIGHT AND MORNING DRIZZLE OVER THE
AREA...AS WELL AS A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM IN
THE HIGHER CASCADES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WEAKENING THE ONSHORE
FLOW AND ALLOWING MORE SUNSHINE TO BREAK THROUGH WITH TEMPS WARMING
ABOVE NORMAL. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEKEND MAY BRING A RETURN TO
THE MARINE LAYER AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES
AGAIN.
&&

.UPDATE...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES WITH THE EVENING UPDATE AS
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER B.C. CANADA
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A DEEPENING MARINE
LAYER WILL CONTINUE MARINE CLOUDS FOR THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS WITH
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BRUSH THE SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOONS. TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...WE HAVE SEEN A NEAR REPEAT OF THE
LAST FEW DAYS AS CLOUDY CONDITIONS COVER MOST OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME THINNING SPOTS
NEAR THE NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE BUT SUSPECT THAT ANY CLEARING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE LIMITED. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BE
MODERATELY STRONG AS ANOTHER LOW IS IN SOUTHERN B.C.  THIS LOW HAS
ALSO TURNED THE WINDS ALOFT TO MORE WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY AS WELL
WHICH IS MAINTAINING THE ONSHORE FLOW. SOME CONVECTION IS TRYING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS
DRIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. ANY THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
BE CONFINED TO NEAR THE CREST.

TEMPS ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO THOSE SATURDAY...BUT THE THIN SPOTS MAY
ALLOW A FEW AREAS TO REACH THE MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SOUTHERN B.C. LOW WILL DROP INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON
ON MONDAY...REINFORCING THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND THE POSSIBILITY
NIGHT AND MORNING DRIZZLE AROUND THE AREA. BELIEVE THE CLOUDS WILL
HAVE A TOUGH TIME BREAKING UP MONDAY...WITH TEMPS STAYING IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S. WITH THE LOW CENTERED IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WASHINGTON...WE MAY SEE OUR NORTHERN CASCADES ZONES MAINLY NEAR THE
CREST CLIPPED BY A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.

THE LOW IS MOVING INTO IDAHO BY LATER TUESDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD CONTINUE...THOUGH WE MIGHT SEE A FEW MORE SUN BREAKS LATE IN
THE DAY AND THE EVENING VS MONDAY...AND THIS MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO GET
CLOSER TO 70. THE BIT MORE SUNSHINE IN THE HIGHER CASCADES COMBINED
WITH THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL MAINTAIN A
CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CREST OF OUR
NORTHERN CASCADE ZONES.

ON WEDNESDAY THE LOW IS FARTHER EAST...AND 500 MB HEIGHTS CLIMB AS
WELL. WE SHOULD SEE MORE CLEARING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
INLAND TEMPS SHOULD HAVE A CHANCE TO REACH AT LEAST THE MID 70S AND
POSSIBLY HIGHER. WE STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME LATE DAY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HIGHER CASCADES CREST...AIDED BY THE INCREASED
SUNSHINE. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE PACNW MIDWEEK...DRYING OUT THE REGION. CONTINUED WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MARINE CLOUDS INLAND
OVERNIGHT...BUT STRATUS SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART CLEAR OUT BY MIDDAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S AND MAYBE LOW 80S
INLAND. A THERMAL LOW DEVELOPS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY AND
STARTS TO PUSH NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH COULD HELP
DEVELOP SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE CREST OF THE CASCADES ON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BACKGROUND FLOW
WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST THOUGH...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THESE
STORMS FROM DRIFTING WESTWARD INTO THE VALLEY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK AND IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...EXCEPT INCREASING CIGS TO LOWER ONCE
AGAIN AFTER 04Z MON. MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL DROP TO LOW
END MVFR AFTER 08Z MON...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AROUND
700-1000 FT BETWEEN 11Z-16Z MON. VFR CIGS INLAND WILL LOWER TO
MVFR WITH CIGS AROUND 1400-2100 FT THROUGH MON AM. MONDAY WILL
LIKELY BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH MVFR CIGS EARLY AND SUN BREAKS
IN THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CIGS AROUND 4000 FT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
TO MVFR WITH CIGS AROUND 1500-2000 FT AFTER 08Z-10Z MON. VFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AFTER 25/18Z. /27

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRES
OVER THE INLAND PAC NW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT MILD
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF ISOLATED ADVISORY GUSTS
ABOVE 21 KT SOUTH OF NEWPORT ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HOWEVER...DO NOT THINK THEY WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
ISSUING AN ADVISORY. MIXED SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS
WEEK...WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES DUE TO A FRESH NW
SWELL. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 250417
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
841 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN B.C. THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SLOWLY MOVE INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY AND INTO IDAHO LATER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH LITTLE OR NO CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOONS. IT WILL ALSO
PROVIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME NIGHT AND MORNING DRIZZLE OVER THE
AREA...AS WELL AS A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM IN
THE HIGHER CASCADES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WEAKENING THE ONSHORE
FLOW AND ALLOWING MORE SUNSHINE TO BREAK THROUGH WITH TEMPS WARMING
ABOVE NORMAL. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEKEND MAY BRING A RETURN TO
THE MARINE LAYER AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES
AGAIN.
&&

.UPDATE...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES WITH THE EVENING UPDATE AS
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER B.C. CANADA
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A DEEPENING MARINE
LAYER WILL CONTINUE MARINE CLOUDS FOR THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS WITH
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BRUSH THE SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOONS. TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...WE HAVE SEEN A NEAR REPEAT OF THE
LAST FEW DAYS AS CLOUDY CONDITIONS COVER MOST OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME THINNING SPOTS
NEAR THE NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE BUT SUSPECT THAT ANY CLEARING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE LIMITED. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BE
MODERATELY STRONG AS ANOTHER LOW IS IN SOUTHERN B.C.  THIS LOW HAS
ALSO TURNED THE WINDS ALOFT TO MORE WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY AS WELL
WHICH IS MAINTAINING THE ONSHORE FLOW. SOME CONVECTION IS TRYING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS
DRIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. ANY THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
BE CONFINED TO NEAR THE CREST.

TEMPS ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO THOSE SATURDAY...BUT THE THIN SPOTS MAY
ALLOW A FEW AREAS TO REACH THE MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SOUTHERN B.C. LOW WILL DROP INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON
ON MONDAY...REINFORCING THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND THE POSSIBILITY
NIGHT AND MORNING DRIZZLE AROUND THE AREA. BELIEVE THE CLOUDS WILL
HAVE A TOUGH TIME BREAKING UP MONDAY...WITH TEMPS STAYING IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S. WITH THE LOW CENTERED IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WASHINGTON...WE MAY SEE OUR NORTHERN CASCADES ZONES MAINLY NEAR THE
CREST CLIPPED BY A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.

THE LOW IS MOVING INTO IDAHO BY LATER TUESDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD CONTINUE...THOUGH WE MIGHT SEE A FEW MORE SUN BREAKS LATE IN
THE DAY AND THE EVENING VS MONDAY...AND THIS MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO GET
CLOSER TO 70. THE BIT MORE SUNSHINE IN THE HIGHER CASCADES COMBINED
WITH THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL MAINTAIN A
CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CREST OF OUR
NORTHERN CASCADE ZONES.

ON WEDNESDAY THE LOW IS FARTHER EAST...AND 500 MB HEIGHTS CLIMB AS
WELL. WE SHOULD SEE MORE CLEARING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
INLAND TEMPS SHOULD HAVE A CHANCE TO REACH AT LEAST THE MID 70S AND
POSSIBLY HIGHER. WE STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME LATE DAY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HIGHER CASCADES CREST...AIDED BY THE INCREASED
SUNSHINE. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE PACNW MIDWEEK...DRYING OUT THE REGION. CONTINUED WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MARINE CLOUDS INLAND
OVERNIGHT...BUT STRATUS SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART CLEAR OUT BY MIDDAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S AND MAYBE LOW 80S
INLAND. A THERMAL LOW DEVELOPS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY AND
STARTS TO PUSH NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH COULD HELP
DEVELOP SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE CREST OF THE CASCADES ON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BACKGROUND FLOW
WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST THOUGH...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THESE
STORMS FROM DRIFTING WESTWARD INTO THE VALLEY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK AND IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...EXCEPT INCREASING CIGS TO LOWER ONCE
AGAIN AFTER 04Z MON. MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL DROP TO LOW
END MVFR AFTER 08Z MON...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AROUND
700-1000 FT BETWEEN 11Z-16Z MON. VFR CIGS INLAND WILL LOWER TO
MVFR WITH CIGS AROUND 1400-2100 FT THROUGH MON AM. MONDAY WILL
LIKELY BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH MVFR CIGS EARLY AND SUN BREAKS
IN THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CIGS AROUND 4000 FT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
TO MVFR WITH CIGS AROUND 1500-2000 FT AFTER 08Z-10Z MON. VFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AFTER 25/18Z. /27

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRES
OVER THE INLAND PAC NW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT MILD
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF ISOLATED ADVISORY GUSTS
ABOVE 21 KT SOUTH OF NEWPORT ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HOWEVER...DO NOT THINK THEY WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
ISSUING AN ADVISORY. MIXED SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS
WEEK...WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES DUE TO A FRESH NW
SWELL. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 250402
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
902 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH TUESDAY...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY. WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW FROM MID WEEK ONWARD ALONG WITH HIGHER
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE
AND A WARMING TREND. THE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES WILL CONTINUE TO
BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE LATE IN THE DAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NEAR THE CREST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN B.C. WILL SPIN OVER
WASHINGTON MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
THE CASCADES. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH
CASCADES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD POOL MOVES
OVERHEAD...HOWEVER MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE
CREST. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT EXITS EAST ON WEDNESDAY WHILE A
RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE LOWLANDS WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH A FEW SUNBREAKS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE INLAND OVER W WA ON THURSDAY THEN SHIFT E OVER MT ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE RIDGE WILL BE BROADENING AT THE SAME TIME SO
THAT W WA WILL REMAIN UNDER ITS INFLUENCE. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN ABOUT 500 NM OFFSHORE ALONG ROUGHLY 135W...BUT THE ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER W WA WILL BE WEAK AND PREDOMINANTLY
WESTERLY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MARINE MOISTURE SPREADING
INLAND OVER W WA EACH EVENING...RESULTING IN AFTERNOON CLEARING
AFTER AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. ADDITIONAL WARMING FROM THE RIDGE
WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE SHOULD KICK MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S OVER THE
INTERIOR. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE COAST IN THE 60S. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LIGHT NW
FLOW ALOFT. AIR MASS IS MOIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND SOMEWHAT MOIST
ALOFT. STABLE CONDITIONS EXCEPT SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ALONG THE CASCADE
CREST. THE UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND WEAK LIFT MAY
PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE MONDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BRIEFLY
SCATTER THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD
MVFR IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS WHERE
DRIZZLE DEVELOPS.

KSEA...CEILING AROUND 3K FT WILL LOWER TO 1-2K FT OVERNIGHT. DRIZZLE
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LIFT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
BUT ANY SCATTERING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE DEEP MARINE LAYER
REMAINS INTACT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND.
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT DURING THE EVENING
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY EACH EVENING IN THE
STRAIT TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
WEAKEN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 250402
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
902 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH TUESDAY...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY. WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW FROM MID WEEK ONWARD ALONG WITH HIGHER
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE
AND A WARMING TREND. THE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES WILL CONTINUE TO
BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE LATE IN THE DAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NEAR THE CREST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN B.C. WILL SPIN OVER
WASHINGTON MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
THE CASCADES. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH
CASCADES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD POOL MOVES
OVERHEAD...HOWEVER MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE
CREST. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT EXITS EAST ON WEDNESDAY WHILE A
RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE LOWLANDS WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH A FEW SUNBREAKS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE INLAND OVER W WA ON THURSDAY THEN SHIFT E OVER MT ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE RIDGE WILL BE BROADENING AT THE SAME TIME SO
THAT W WA WILL REMAIN UNDER ITS INFLUENCE. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN ABOUT 500 NM OFFSHORE ALONG ROUGHLY 135W...BUT THE ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER W WA WILL BE WEAK AND PREDOMINANTLY
WESTERLY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MARINE MOISTURE SPREADING
INLAND OVER W WA EACH EVENING...RESULTING IN AFTERNOON CLEARING
AFTER AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. ADDITIONAL WARMING FROM THE RIDGE
WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE SHOULD KICK MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S OVER THE
INTERIOR. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE COAST IN THE 60S. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LIGHT NW
FLOW ALOFT. AIR MASS IS MOIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND SOMEWHAT MOIST
ALOFT. STABLE CONDITIONS EXCEPT SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ALONG THE CASCADE
CREST. THE UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND WEAK LIFT MAY
PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE MONDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BRIEFLY
SCATTER THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD
MVFR IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS WHERE
DRIZZLE DEVELOPS.

KSEA...CEILING AROUND 3K FT WILL LOWER TO 1-2K FT OVERNIGHT. DRIZZLE
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LIFT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
BUT ANY SCATTERING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE DEEP MARINE LAYER
REMAINS INTACT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND.
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT DURING THE EVENING
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY EACH EVENING IN THE
STRAIT TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
WEAKEN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KOTX 250359
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
859 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves into the Inland Northwest through mid-week,
providing scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and
smaller chances in the morning and night. Locally heavy rain,
small hail and gusty winds will be possible in storms. Some chance
of showers continues into the second part of the week into next
weekend, especially in the mountains. Next weekend also looks to
warm with summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery this evening indicates a closed low over
southern BC slowly moving south. Earlier today afternoon heating
helped destabilize the atmosphere leading to the development of
showers and thunderstorms over the Northern Cascades, Okanogan
Valley and Highlands, extending south into the Upper Columbia
Basin and Waterville Plateau this evening. Meanwhile a secondary
area of showers and thunderstorms was found over the Central
Panhandle Mountains.

While surface based instability is on the decrease this evening...plenty
of mid level moisture and instability is present across Northeast
Washington and North Idaho. The main area of shower and
thunderstorm activity stretching from the Upper Columbia Basin and
NE Washington Mountains is shown by the GFS, HRRR, and NAM to
swing towards N Idaho through the overnight hours. Convection
between Coeur D`Alene and Shoshone county will also get drawn
north with the approaching low. Thus...POP`s were increased in
these areas. Models also show a general increase in showers across
the Spokane area possibly extending into the palouse late this
evening and overnight. Areas along and north of I-90 over NE
Washington and N Idaho will have the best opportunity for
nocturnal thunderstorms with MUCAPE values of 300-600 J/KG during
the overnight hours. Cloudy skies will result in mild overnight
lows in the mid 50s for NE WA and N Idaho and low temps were
increased.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A closed low in southern BC will drop south into
northern WA on Monday. This will result in showers and scattered
thunderstorms with the best coverage in the northern mountains and
Idaho Panhandle given the cold pool aloft with the low over the
area. The highest coverage of this activity will be during peak
heating (afternoon or evening) but showers and possibe nocturnal
thunderstorms will continue overnight into Monday morning with
mid level instability in place over Northeast Washington and North
Idaho. Gusty gap winds are expected in the Cascades this evening
impacting KEAT. JW



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  71  51  73  52  77 /  60  50  40  60  40  30
Coeur d`Alene  55  70  49  73  50  75 /  70  70  40  60  40  40
Pullman        49  69  45  71  47  73 /  20  20  10  40  30  40
Lewiston       55  77  52  78  55  79 /  10  20  10  20  20  30
Colville       55  74  50  76  50  81 /  90  90  60  70  40  30
Sandpoint      54  70  48  72  49  74 /  80  70  60  60  50  40
Kellogg        53  70  46  72  47  73 /  60  80  50  60  50  50
Moses Lake     54  79  54  80  53  84 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Wenatchee      56  78  56  79  59  84 /   0  20  20  40  30  20
Omak           50  77  50  78  51  84 /  20  50  50  60  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 250359
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
859 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves into the Inland Northwest through mid-week,
providing scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and
smaller chances in the morning and night. Locally heavy rain,
small hail and gusty winds will be possible in storms. Some chance
of showers continues into the second part of the week into next
weekend, especially in the mountains. Next weekend also looks to
warm with summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery this evening indicates a closed low over
southern BC slowly moving south. Earlier today afternoon heating
helped destabilize the atmosphere leading to the development of
showers and thunderstorms over the Northern Cascades, Okanogan
Valley and Highlands, extending south into the Upper Columbia
Basin and Waterville Plateau this evening. Meanwhile a secondary
area of showers and thunderstorms was found over the Central
Panhandle Mountains.

While surface based instability is on the decrease this evening...plenty
of mid level moisture and instability is present across Northeast
Washington and North Idaho. The main area of shower and
thunderstorm activity stretching from the Upper Columbia Basin and
NE Washington Mountains is shown by the GFS, HRRR, and NAM to
swing towards N Idaho through the overnight hours. Convection
between Coeur D`Alene and Shoshone county will also get drawn
north with the approaching low. Thus...POP`s were increased in
these areas. Models also show a general increase in showers across
the Spokane area possibly extending into the palouse late this
evening and overnight. Areas along and north of I-90 over NE
Washington and N Idaho will have the best opportunity for
nocturnal thunderstorms with MUCAPE values of 300-600 J/KG during
the overnight hours. Cloudy skies will result in mild overnight
lows in the mid 50s for NE WA and N Idaho and low temps were
increased.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A closed low in southern BC will drop south into
northern WA on Monday. This will result in showers and scattered
thunderstorms with the best coverage in the northern mountains and
Idaho Panhandle given the cold pool aloft with the low over the
area. The highest coverage of this activity will be during peak
heating (afternoon or evening) but showers and possibe nocturnal
thunderstorms will continue overnight into Monday morning with
mid level instability in place over Northeast Washington and North
Idaho. Gusty gap winds are expected in the Cascades this evening
impacting KEAT. JW



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  71  51  73  52  77 /  60  50  40  60  40  30
Coeur d`Alene  55  70  49  73  50  75 /  70  70  40  60  40  40
Pullman        49  69  45  71  47  73 /  20  20  10  40  30  40
Lewiston       55  77  52  78  55  79 /  10  20  10  20  20  30
Colville       55  74  50  76  50  81 /  90  90  60  70  40  30
Sandpoint      54  70  48  72  49  74 /  80  70  60  60  50  40
Kellogg        53  70  46  72  47  73 /  60  80  50  60  50  50
Moses Lake     54  79  54  80  53  84 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Wenatchee      56  78  56  79  59  84 /   0  20  20  40  30  20
Omak           50  77  50  78  51  84 /  20  50  50  60  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 250359
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
859 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves into the Inland Northwest through mid-week,
providing scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and
smaller chances in the morning and night. Locally heavy rain,
small hail and gusty winds will be possible in storms. Some chance
of showers continues into the second part of the week into next
weekend, especially in the mountains. Next weekend also looks to
warm with summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery this evening indicates a closed low over
southern BC slowly moving south. Earlier today afternoon heating
helped destabilize the atmosphere leading to the development of
showers and thunderstorms over the Northern Cascades, Okanogan
Valley and Highlands, extending south into the Upper Columbia
Basin and Waterville Plateau this evening. Meanwhile a secondary
area of showers and thunderstorms was found over the Central
Panhandle Mountains.

While surface based instability is on the decrease this evening...plenty
of mid level moisture and instability is present across Northeast
Washington and North Idaho. The main area of shower and
thunderstorm activity stretching from the Upper Columbia Basin and
NE Washington Mountains is shown by the GFS, HRRR, and NAM to
swing towards N Idaho through the overnight hours. Convection
between Coeur D`Alene and Shoshone county will also get drawn
north with the approaching low. Thus...POP`s were increased in
these areas. Models also show a general increase in showers across
the Spokane area possibly extending into the palouse late this
evening and overnight. Areas along and north of I-90 over NE
Washington and N Idaho will have the best opportunity for
nocturnal thunderstorms with MUCAPE values of 300-600 J/KG during
the overnight hours. Cloudy skies will result in mild overnight
lows in the mid 50s for NE WA and N Idaho and low temps were
increased.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A closed low in southern BC will drop south into
northern WA on Monday. This will result in showers and scattered
thunderstorms with the best coverage in the northern mountains and
Idaho Panhandle given the cold pool aloft with the low over the
area. The highest coverage of this activity will be during peak
heating (afternoon or evening) but showers and possibe nocturnal
thunderstorms will continue overnight into Monday morning with
mid level instability in place over Northeast Washington and North
Idaho. Gusty gap winds are expected in the Cascades this evening
impacting KEAT. JW



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  71  51  73  52  77 /  60  50  40  60  40  30
Coeur d`Alene  55  70  49  73  50  75 /  70  70  40  60  40  40
Pullman        49  69  45  71  47  73 /  20  20  10  40  30  40
Lewiston       55  77  52  78  55  79 /  10  20  10  20  20  30
Colville       55  74  50  76  50  81 /  90  90  60  70  40  30
Sandpoint      54  70  48  72  49  74 /  80  70  60  60  50  40
Kellogg        53  70  46  72  47  73 /  60  80  50  60  50  50
Moses Lake     54  79  54  80  53  84 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Wenatchee      56  78  56  79  59  84 /   0  20  20  40  30  20
Omak           50  77  50  78  51  84 /  20  50  50  60  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 250359
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
859 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves into the Inland Northwest through mid-week,
providing scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and
smaller chances in the morning and night. Locally heavy rain,
small hail and gusty winds will be possible in storms. Some chance
of showers continues into the second part of the week into next
weekend, especially in the mountains. Next weekend also looks to
warm with summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery this evening indicates a closed low over
southern BC slowly moving south. Earlier today afternoon heating
helped destabilize the atmosphere leading to the development of
showers and thunderstorms over the Northern Cascades, Okanogan
Valley and Highlands, extending south into the Upper Columbia
Basin and Waterville Plateau this evening. Meanwhile a secondary
area of showers and thunderstorms was found over the Central
Panhandle Mountains.

While surface based instability is on the decrease this evening...plenty
of mid level moisture and instability is present across Northeast
Washington and North Idaho. The main area of shower and
thunderstorm activity stretching from the Upper Columbia Basin and
NE Washington Mountains is shown by the GFS, HRRR, and NAM to
swing towards N Idaho through the overnight hours. Convection
between Coeur D`Alene and Shoshone county will also get drawn
north with the approaching low. Thus...POP`s were increased in
these areas. Models also show a general increase in showers across
the Spokane area possibly extending into the palouse late this
evening and overnight. Areas along and north of I-90 over NE
Washington and N Idaho will have the best opportunity for
nocturnal thunderstorms with MUCAPE values of 300-600 J/KG during
the overnight hours. Cloudy skies will result in mild overnight
lows in the mid 50s for NE WA and N Idaho and low temps were
increased.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A closed low in southern BC will drop south into
northern WA on Monday. This will result in showers and scattered
thunderstorms with the best coverage in the northern mountains and
Idaho Panhandle given the cold pool aloft with the low over the
area. The highest coverage of this activity will be during peak
heating (afternoon or evening) but showers and possibe nocturnal
thunderstorms will continue overnight into Monday morning with
mid level instability in place over Northeast Washington and North
Idaho. Gusty gap winds are expected in the Cascades this evening
impacting KEAT. JW



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  71  51  73  52  77 /  60  50  40  60  40  30
Coeur d`Alene  55  70  49  73  50  75 /  70  70  40  60  40  40
Pullman        49  69  45  71  47  73 /  20  20  10  40  30  40
Lewiston       55  77  52  78  55  79 /  10  20  10  20  20  30
Colville       55  74  50  76  50  81 /  90  90  60  70  40  30
Sandpoint      54  70  48  72  49  74 /  80  70  60  60  50  40
Kellogg        53  70  46  72  47  73 /  60  80  50  60  50  50
Moses Lake     54  79  54  80  53  84 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Wenatchee      56  78  56  79  59  84 /   0  20  20  40  30  20
Omak           50  77  50  78  51  84 /  20  50  50  60  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 250004
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
504 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves into the Inland Northwest through mid-week,
providing scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and
smaller chances in the morning and night. Locally heavy rain,
small hail and gusty winds will be possible in storms. Some chance
of showers continues into the second part of the week into next
weekend, especially in the mountains. Next weekend also looks to
warm with summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: Winds have been increased through the Cascade gaps and
Okanogan Valley this evening as a cold front tracks into the area.
Omak in the past hour (4-5pm) has reported a wind gust to around
40 mph. Outflow winds from thunderstorms could be contributing to
these stronger gusts. Otherwise remainder of discussion outlied
below is still on track.

Tonight through Monday: A low pressure will continue to move
across the Inland Northwest from Southern BC. The NAM has been
handling this situation better than the GFS and ECMWF as it was
picking up on the instability along the Northern Mtns better. With
cape values in the 500-1000 J/kg and -3 to -4 Lifted index,
decent development of these storms is possible. Small hail and
gusty winds from outflow boundaries could be produced from these
storms. Convection is expected to continue into the overnight
hours along the Northern Mtns but will be decreasing overnight as
sfc heating will decrease. The Camas Prairie and Central Panhandle
can expect thunderstorms from this system. With the moisture and
instability located over the Northern Mtns and ID Panhandle, burn
scar areas are not expected to be impacted with heavy rain showers
bringing flash flooding.

Memorial Day: While Monday is expected to be several degrees
cooler than Sunday, a very similar pattern is expected impact the
region. The Low will continue to slowly move through the region.
The indices are similar to Sunday. With the Low dropped further
south, the threat of thunderstorms is stretched into the lower
Columbia Basin during the afternoon hours. High temperatures are
expected to be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. /JDC

Monday night through Sunday: The Inland NW remains unsettled with
a threat of showers and thunderstorms most days, especially
through mid-week as an upper low migrates across the region.
Temperatures will also warm as the period progresses with milder
air being pumped in on an increasing southwest flow. If longer
range models are to be believed (and there is decent agreement at
this point) highs may approach the mid to upper 80s to lower 90s
by the week`s end.

First between Monday night and Wednesday low pressure migrates
from the Cascades to the northern Rockies. Moisture and
instability wrapped up in this feature will lead to showers and
thunderstorms. These will be most numerous through Tuesday, during
the afternoon and early evening with the prime instability, and
around the periphery of this low where lift and the focusing
mechanism will be best (i.e. the mountains and a theta-e ridge).
This means they will be most numerous outside of the deeper
Columbia Basin and lower Palouse into the L-C Valley. During the
overnight and morning hours the thunderstorm risk will decline,
while showers will become more isolated. By Wednesday the low
starts to shift east and some drier air and subsidence starts to
come in on the north to northwest flow. So by then the main
shower/thunderstorm chances begin to retreat to the mountains.
However chances will continue around the eastern third of WA into
the L-C Valley, with the overall best chance in these areas in the
afternoon/evening over the Palouse southward.

Potential impacts come from locally heavy downpours and possible
localized flash flooding/debris flow, especially around the burn
scars and with any slow-moving shower/t-storms. Other possible
impacts will be the threat of gusty winds, hail and localized
frequent lightning, with the best chances for these right now the
northeast WA and the ID Panhandle. But overall shear is not too
impressive to support long-lived organized cells.

From Thursday to Sunday the region transitions from a north/northwest
flow to west-southwest flow. Another low migrates south across BC
and a deeper trough deepens off the Pacific coast. Impulses ride
into the region in this evolving flow on Thursday, late Friday
into Saturday and again toward Sunday. However the precise
evolution of these features is apt to change over the next several
days. With instability expanding each afternoon there will be some
threat of showers and thunderstorm each day, especially around the
mountains through Friday and potentially expanding to a broader
area going into next weekend as models try to bring most
substantial impulses in. There is some disagreement and
inconsistency among models out that far. Yet this is a pattern to
monitor for possible organized/stronger thunderstorms with milder
air being pumped in and shortwave coming in from the southwest.
/J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A closed low in southern BC will drop south into
northern WA on Monday. This will result in showers and scattered
thunderstorms with the best coverage in the northern mountains and
Idaho Panhandle given the cold pool aloft with the low over the
area. The highest coverage of this activity will be during peak
heating (afternoon or evening) but showers and possibe nocturnal
thunderstorms will continue overnight into Monday morning with
mid level instability in place over Northeast Washington and North
Idaho. Gusty gap winds are expected in the Cascades this evening
impacting KEAT. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  71  51  73  52  77 /  40  50  40  60  40  30
Coeur d`Alene  53  70  49  73  50  75 /  50  70  40  60  40  40
Pullman        49  69  45  71  47  73 /  10  20  10  40  30  40
Lewiston       55  77  52  78  55  79 /  10  20  10  20  20  30
Colville       52  74  50  76  50  81 /  50  90  60  70  40  30
Sandpoint      51  70  48  72  49  74 /  50  70  60  60  50  40
Kellogg        51  70  46  72  47  73 /  20  80  50  60  50  50
Moses Lake     54  79  54  80  53  84 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Wenatchee      56  78  56  79  59  84 /  10  20  20  40  30  20
Omak           50  77  50  78  51  84 /  40  50  50  60  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSEW 242217
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
318 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH TUESDAY...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY. WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW FROM MID WEEK ONWARD ALONG WITH HIGHER
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE
AND A WARMING TREND. THE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES WILL CONTINUE TO
BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE LATE IN THE DAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NEAR THE CREST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF W WA STILL
COVERED IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE ARE A FEW MORE THIN
SPOTS AROUND THE INTERIOR...AND BIG BREAKS OVER THE SAN JUANS AND
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN WEAKLY ONSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING E OF THE CASCADE CREST AND
IT LOOKS LIKE STEERING WINDS ARE TAKING THE CLOUD ELEMENTS TO THE
NE. DEVELOPMENT W OF THE CREST DOES NOT LOOK TOO PROMISING...HOWEVER
IT IS STILL WORTHWHILE TO HANG ON TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES THIS EVENING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ON
TRACK AND ALMOST OVER VANCOUVER B.C. THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE IN MOVING THE LOW OVER THE CANADIAN
BORDER JUST E OF THE CASCADE CREST MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A MOIST
MARINE LAYER STILL IN PLACE OVER W WA...WEAK LIFT PROVIDED BY THE
LOW SHOULD PRODUCE AREAS OF DRIZZLE OVER W WA LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY DRIZZLE LOCATIONS WOULD BE CLOSER TO
THE LOW...LIKE THE N INTERIOR...AND THE GREATER PUGET SOUND REGION.
MODELS STILL INDICATE THE MARINE LAYER WILL BREAK UP A LITTLE BIT
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY SKIES LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE N INTERIOR AND SOME AFTERNOON SUNBREAKS
ELSEWHERE.

WITH THE LOW STILL JUST E OF THE CREST THE AIR MASS OVER THE
CASCADES WILL BECOME UNSTABLE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
JUST W OF THE CREST. N STEERING WINDS COULD ALSO SEND NEARBY
CANADIAN CELLS ACROSS THE BORDER.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE E OVER THE ID BORDER BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH N TO NE FLOW OVER THE CASCADES. THE AIR MASS OVER THE
CASCADES WILL BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
WEAKER WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER N-NW FLOW ALOFT MIXING INTO THE TOP OF
THE MARINE LAYER. THE STRATUS SHOULD BREAK UP ENOUGH FOR PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE
WARMEST SPOTS COULD REACH NEAR 70.

ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER ID AND NO LONGER A
FACTOR. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND
OVER W WA. A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES IN THE
AFTERNOON STILL MERITS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WEAK WESTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP THE MARINE LAYER DIFFUSE ENOUGH FOR
CLEARING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASED SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH
GENERAL AIR MASS WARMING FROM THE RIDGE SHOULD PUT MAX TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S OVER THE INTERIOR. KAM

.LONG TERM...THE OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE INLAND
OVER W WA ON THURSDAY THEN SHIFT E OVER MT ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE
RIDGE WILL BE BROADENING AT THE SAME TIME SO THAT W WA WILL REMAIN
UNDER ITS INFLUENCE. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ABOUT 500 NM
OFFSHORE ALONG ROUGHLY 135W...BUT THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
OVER W WA WILL BE WEAK AND PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY. THIS WILL LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF MARINE MOISTURE SPREADING INLAND OVER W WA EACH
EVENING...RESULTING IN AFTERNOON CLEARING AFTER AREAS OF MORNING LOW
CLOUDS. ADDITIONAL WARMING FROM THE RIDGE WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE
SHOULD KICK MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S OVER THE INTERIOR. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP THE COAST IN THE 60S. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE SE ACROSS WA THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. LIGHT NW ALOFT. AIR MASS MOIST IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...AND SOMEWHAT MOIST ALOFT. STABLE CONDITIONS EXCEPT ALONG
THE CASCADE CREST WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE
AFTERNOON/EVENINGS...MAINLY N. THE UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE
LAYER AND WEAK LIFT MAY PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
MORNING. MVFR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY SCATTER EARLY THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD
FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING
WITH PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS WHERE DRIZZLE DEVELOPS.

KSEA...CIGS BKN 1500-2500 FT MAY BRIEFLY SCATTER EARLY THIS EVENING.
1-2K FT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 05Z. PATCHY DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK LOW MOVES SE OVER CENTRAL/ERN WA.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN...ANY SCATTERING
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE DEEP MARINE LAYER REMAINS INTACT. DTM

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND.
SMALL CRAFT WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT DURING
THE EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY EACH EVENING
IN THE STRAIT TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY OF BRIEF GALE STRENGTH WINDS TONIGHT IN THE STRAIT.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT LATE THIS
     AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 242217
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
318 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH TUESDAY...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY. WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW FROM MID WEEK ONWARD ALONG WITH HIGHER
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE
AND A WARMING TREND. THE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES WILL CONTINUE TO
BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE LATE IN THE DAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NEAR THE CREST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF W WA STILL
COVERED IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE ARE A FEW MORE THIN
SPOTS AROUND THE INTERIOR...AND BIG BREAKS OVER THE SAN JUANS AND
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN WEAKLY ONSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING E OF THE CASCADE CREST AND
IT LOOKS LIKE STEERING WINDS ARE TAKING THE CLOUD ELEMENTS TO THE
NE. DEVELOPMENT W OF THE CREST DOES NOT LOOK TOO PROMISING...HOWEVER
IT IS STILL WORTHWHILE TO HANG ON TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES THIS EVENING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ON
TRACK AND ALMOST OVER VANCOUVER B.C. THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE IN MOVING THE LOW OVER THE CANADIAN
BORDER JUST E OF THE CASCADE CREST MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A MOIST
MARINE LAYER STILL IN PLACE OVER W WA...WEAK LIFT PROVIDED BY THE
LOW SHOULD PRODUCE AREAS OF DRIZZLE OVER W WA LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY DRIZZLE LOCATIONS WOULD BE CLOSER TO
THE LOW...LIKE THE N INTERIOR...AND THE GREATER PUGET SOUND REGION.
MODELS STILL INDICATE THE MARINE LAYER WILL BREAK UP A LITTLE BIT
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY SKIES LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE N INTERIOR AND SOME AFTERNOON SUNBREAKS
ELSEWHERE.

WITH THE LOW STILL JUST E OF THE CREST THE AIR MASS OVER THE
CASCADES WILL BECOME UNSTABLE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
JUST W OF THE CREST. N STEERING WINDS COULD ALSO SEND NEARBY
CANADIAN CELLS ACROSS THE BORDER.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE E OVER THE ID BORDER BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH N TO NE FLOW OVER THE CASCADES. THE AIR MASS OVER THE
CASCADES WILL BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
WEAKER WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER N-NW FLOW ALOFT MIXING INTO THE TOP OF
THE MARINE LAYER. THE STRATUS SHOULD BREAK UP ENOUGH FOR PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE
WARMEST SPOTS COULD REACH NEAR 70.

ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER ID AND NO LONGER A
FACTOR. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND
OVER W WA. A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES IN THE
AFTERNOON STILL MERITS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WEAK WESTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP THE MARINE LAYER DIFFUSE ENOUGH FOR
CLEARING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASED SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH
GENERAL AIR MASS WARMING FROM THE RIDGE SHOULD PUT MAX TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S OVER THE INTERIOR. KAM

.LONG TERM...THE OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE INLAND
OVER W WA ON THURSDAY THEN SHIFT E OVER MT ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE
RIDGE WILL BE BROADENING AT THE SAME TIME SO THAT W WA WILL REMAIN
UNDER ITS INFLUENCE. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ABOUT 500 NM
OFFSHORE ALONG ROUGHLY 135W...BUT THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
OVER W WA WILL BE WEAK AND PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY. THIS WILL LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF MARINE MOISTURE SPREADING INLAND OVER W WA EACH
EVENING...RESULTING IN AFTERNOON CLEARING AFTER AREAS OF MORNING LOW
CLOUDS. ADDITIONAL WARMING FROM THE RIDGE WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE
SHOULD KICK MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S OVER THE INTERIOR. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP THE COAST IN THE 60S. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE SE ACROSS WA THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. LIGHT NW ALOFT. AIR MASS MOIST IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...AND SOMEWHAT MOIST ALOFT. STABLE CONDITIONS EXCEPT ALONG
THE CASCADE CREST WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE
AFTERNOON/EVENINGS...MAINLY N. THE UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE
LAYER AND WEAK LIFT MAY PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
MORNING. MVFR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY SCATTER EARLY THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD
FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING
WITH PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS WHERE DRIZZLE DEVELOPS.

KSEA...CIGS BKN 1500-2500 FT MAY BRIEFLY SCATTER EARLY THIS EVENING.
1-2K FT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 05Z. PATCHY DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK LOW MOVES SE OVER CENTRAL/ERN WA.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN...ANY SCATTERING
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE DEEP MARINE LAYER REMAINS INTACT. DTM

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND.
SMALL CRAFT WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT DURING
THE EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY EACH EVENING
IN THE STRAIT TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY OF BRIEF GALE STRENGTH WINDS TONIGHT IN THE STRAIT.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT LATE THIS
     AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML














000
FXUS66 KSEW 242217
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
318 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH TUESDAY...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY. WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW FROM MID WEEK ONWARD ALONG WITH HIGHER
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE
AND A WARMING TREND. THE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES WILL CONTINUE TO
BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE LATE IN THE DAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NEAR THE CREST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF W WA STILL
COVERED IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE ARE A FEW MORE THIN
SPOTS AROUND THE INTERIOR...AND BIG BREAKS OVER THE SAN JUANS AND
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN WEAKLY ONSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING E OF THE CASCADE CREST AND
IT LOOKS LIKE STEERING WINDS ARE TAKING THE CLOUD ELEMENTS TO THE
NE. DEVELOPMENT W OF THE CREST DOES NOT LOOK TOO PROMISING...HOWEVER
IT IS STILL WORTHWHILE TO HANG ON TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES THIS EVENING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ON
TRACK AND ALMOST OVER VANCOUVER B.C. THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE IN MOVING THE LOW OVER THE CANADIAN
BORDER JUST E OF THE CASCADE CREST MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A MOIST
MARINE LAYER STILL IN PLACE OVER W WA...WEAK LIFT PROVIDED BY THE
LOW SHOULD PRODUCE AREAS OF DRIZZLE OVER W WA LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY DRIZZLE LOCATIONS WOULD BE CLOSER TO
THE LOW...LIKE THE N INTERIOR...AND THE GREATER PUGET SOUND REGION.
MODELS STILL INDICATE THE MARINE LAYER WILL BREAK UP A LITTLE BIT
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY SKIES LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE N INTERIOR AND SOME AFTERNOON SUNBREAKS
ELSEWHERE.

WITH THE LOW STILL JUST E OF THE CREST THE AIR MASS OVER THE
CASCADES WILL BECOME UNSTABLE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
JUST W OF THE CREST. N STEERING WINDS COULD ALSO SEND NEARBY
CANADIAN CELLS ACROSS THE BORDER.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE E OVER THE ID BORDER BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH N TO NE FLOW OVER THE CASCADES. THE AIR MASS OVER THE
CASCADES WILL BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
WEAKER WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER N-NW FLOW ALOFT MIXING INTO THE TOP OF
THE MARINE LAYER. THE STRATUS SHOULD BREAK UP ENOUGH FOR PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE
WARMEST SPOTS COULD REACH NEAR 70.

ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER ID AND NO LONGER A
FACTOR. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND
OVER W WA. A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES IN THE
AFTERNOON STILL MERITS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WEAK WESTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP THE MARINE LAYER DIFFUSE ENOUGH FOR
CLEARING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASED SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH
GENERAL AIR MASS WARMING FROM THE RIDGE SHOULD PUT MAX TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S OVER THE INTERIOR. KAM

.LONG TERM...THE OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE INLAND
OVER W WA ON THURSDAY THEN SHIFT E OVER MT ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE
RIDGE WILL BE BROADENING AT THE SAME TIME SO THAT W WA WILL REMAIN
UNDER ITS INFLUENCE. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ABOUT 500 NM
OFFSHORE ALONG ROUGHLY 135W...BUT THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
OVER W WA WILL BE WEAK AND PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY. THIS WILL LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF MARINE MOISTURE SPREADING INLAND OVER W WA EACH
EVENING...RESULTING IN AFTERNOON CLEARING AFTER AREAS OF MORNING LOW
CLOUDS. ADDITIONAL WARMING FROM THE RIDGE WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE
SHOULD KICK MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S OVER THE INTERIOR. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP THE COAST IN THE 60S. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE SE ACROSS WA THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. LIGHT NW ALOFT. AIR MASS MOIST IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...AND SOMEWHAT MOIST ALOFT. STABLE CONDITIONS EXCEPT ALONG
THE CASCADE CREST WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE
AFTERNOON/EVENINGS...MAINLY N. THE UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE
LAYER AND WEAK LIFT MAY PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
MORNING. MVFR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY SCATTER EARLY THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD
FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING
WITH PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS WHERE DRIZZLE DEVELOPS.

KSEA...CIGS BKN 1500-2500 FT MAY BRIEFLY SCATTER EARLY THIS EVENING.
1-2K FT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 05Z. PATCHY DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK LOW MOVES SE OVER CENTRAL/ERN WA.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN...ANY SCATTERING
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE DEEP MARINE LAYER REMAINS INTACT. DTM

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND.
SMALL CRAFT WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT DURING
THE EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY EACH EVENING
IN THE STRAIT TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY OF BRIEF GALE STRENGTH WINDS TONIGHT IN THE STRAIT.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT LATE THIS
     AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML














000
FXUS66 KSEW 242217
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
318 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH TUESDAY...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY. WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW FROM MID WEEK ONWARD ALONG WITH HIGHER
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE
AND A WARMING TREND. THE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES WILL CONTINUE TO
BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE LATE IN THE DAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NEAR THE CREST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF W WA STILL
COVERED IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE ARE A FEW MORE THIN
SPOTS AROUND THE INTERIOR...AND BIG BREAKS OVER THE SAN JUANS AND
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN WEAKLY ONSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING E OF THE CASCADE CREST AND
IT LOOKS LIKE STEERING WINDS ARE TAKING THE CLOUD ELEMENTS TO THE
NE. DEVELOPMENT W OF THE CREST DOES NOT LOOK TOO PROMISING...HOWEVER
IT IS STILL WORTHWHILE TO HANG ON TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES THIS EVENING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ON
TRACK AND ALMOST OVER VANCOUVER B.C. THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE IN MOVING THE LOW OVER THE CANADIAN
BORDER JUST E OF THE CASCADE CREST MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A MOIST
MARINE LAYER STILL IN PLACE OVER W WA...WEAK LIFT PROVIDED BY THE
LOW SHOULD PRODUCE AREAS OF DRIZZLE OVER W WA LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY DRIZZLE LOCATIONS WOULD BE CLOSER TO
THE LOW...LIKE THE N INTERIOR...AND THE GREATER PUGET SOUND REGION.
MODELS STILL INDICATE THE MARINE LAYER WILL BREAK UP A LITTLE BIT
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY SKIES LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE N INTERIOR AND SOME AFTERNOON SUNBREAKS
ELSEWHERE.

WITH THE LOW STILL JUST E OF THE CREST THE AIR MASS OVER THE
CASCADES WILL BECOME UNSTABLE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
JUST W OF THE CREST. N STEERING WINDS COULD ALSO SEND NEARBY
CANADIAN CELLS ACROSS THE BORDER.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE E OVER THE ID BORDER BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH N TO NE FLOW OVER THE CASCADES. THE AIR MASS OVER THE
CASCADES WILL BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
WEAKER WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER N-NW FLOW ALOFT MIXING INTO THE TOP OF
THE MARINE LAYER. THE STRATUS SHOULD BREAK UP ENOUGH FOR PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE
WARMEST SPOTS COULD REACH NEAR 70.

ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER ID AND NO LONGER A
FACTOR. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND
OVER W WA. A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES IN THE
AFTERNOON STILL MERITS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WEAK WESTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP THE MARINE LAYER DIFFUSE ENOUGH FOR
CLEARING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASED SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH
GENERAL AIR MASS WARMING FROM THE RIDGE SHOULD PUT MAX TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S OVER THE INTERIOR. KAM

.LONG TERM...THE OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE INLAND
OVER W WA ON THURSDAY THEN SHIFT E OVER MT ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE
RIDGE WILL BE BROADENING AT THE SAME TIME SO THAT W WA WILL REMAIN
UNDER ITS INFLUENCE. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ABOUT 500 NM
OFFSHORE ALONG ROUGHLY 135W...BUT THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
OVER W WA WILL BE WEAK AND PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY. THIS WILL LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF MARINE MOISTURE SPREADING INLAND OVER W WA EACH
EVENING...RESULTING IN AFTERNOON CLEARING AFTER AREAS OF MORNING LOW
CLOUDS. ADDITIONAL WARMING FROM THE RIDGE WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE
SHOULD KICK MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S OVER THE INTERIOR. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP THE COAST IN THE 60S. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE SE ACROSS WA THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. LIGHT NW ALOFT. AIR MASS MOIST IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...AND SOMEWHAT MOIST ALOFT. STABLE CONDITIONS EXCEPT ALONG
THE CASCADE CREST WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE
AFTERNOON/EVENINGS...MAINLY N. THE UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE
LAYER AND WEAK LIFT MAY PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
MORNING. MVFR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY SCATTER EARLY THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD
FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING
WITH PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS WHERE DRIZZLE DEVELOPS.

KSEA...CIGS BKN 1500-2500 FT MAY BRIEFLY SCATTER EARLY THIS EVENING.
1-2K FT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 05Z. PATCHY DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK LOW MOVES SE OVER CENTRAL/ERN WA.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN...ANY SCATTERING
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE DEEP MARINE LAYER REMAINS INTACT. DTM

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND.
SMALL CRAFT WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT DURING
THE EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY EACH EVENING
IN THE STRAIT TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY OF BRIEF GALE STRENGTH WINDS TONIGHT IN THE STRAIT.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT LATE THIS
     AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML














000
FXUS66 KSEW 242217
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
318 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH TUESDAY...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY. WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW FROM MID WEEK ONWARD ALONG WITH HIGHER
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE
AND A WARMING TREND. THE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES WILL CONTINUE TO
BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE LATE IN THE DAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NEAR THE CREST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF W WA STILL
COVERED IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE ARE A FEW MORE THIN
SPOTS AROUND THE INTERIOR...AND BIG BREAKS OVER THE SAN JUANS AND
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN WEAKLY ONSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING E OF THE CASCADE CREST AND
IT LOOKS LIKE STEERING WINDS ARE TAKING THE CLOUD ELEMENTS TO THE
NE. DEVELOPMENT W OF THE CREST DOES NOT LOOK TOO PROMISING...HOWEVER
IT IS STILL WORTHWHILE TO HANG ON TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES THIS EVENING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ON
TRACK AND ALMOST OVER VANCOUVER B.C. THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE IN MOVING THE LOW OVER THE CANADIAN
BORDER JUST E OF THE CASCADE CREST MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A MOIST
MARINE LAYER STILL IN PLACE OVER W WA...WEAK LIFT PROVIDED BY THE
LOW SHOULD PRODUCE AREAS OF DRIZZLE OVER W WA LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY DRIZZLE LOCATIONS WOULD BE CLOSER TO
THE LOW...LIKE THE N INTERIOR...AND THE GREATER PUGET SOUND REGION.
MODELS STILL INDICATE THE MARINE LAYER WILL BREAK UP A LITTLE BIT
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY SKIES LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE N INTERIOR AND SOME AFTERNOON SUNBREAKS
ELSEWHERE.

WITH THE LOW STILL JUST E OF THE CREST THE AIR MASS OVER THE
CASCADES WILL BECOME UNSTABLE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
JUST W OF THE CREST. N STEERING WINDS COULD ALSO SEND NEARBY
CANADIAN CELLS ACROSS THE BORDER.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE E OVER THE ID BORDER BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH N TO NE FLOW OVER THE CASCADES. THE AIR MASS OVER THE
CASCADES WILL BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
WEAKER WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER N-NW FLOW ALOFT MIXING INTO THE TOP OF
THE MARINE LAYER. THE STRATUS SHOULD BREAK UP ENOUGH FOR PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE
WARMEST SPOTS COULD REACH NEAR 70.

ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER ID AND NO LONGER A
FACTOR. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND
OVER W WA. A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES IN THE
AFTERNOON STILL MERITS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WEAK WESTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP THE MARINE LAYER DIFFUSE ENOUGH FOR
CLEARING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASED SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH
GENERAL AIR MASS WARMING FROM THE RIDGE SHOULD PUT MAX TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S OVER THE INTERIOR. KAM

.LONG TERM...THE OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE INLAND
OVER W WA ON THURSDAY THEN SHIFT E OVER MT ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE
RIDGE WILL BE BROADENING AT THE SAME TIME SO THAT W WA WILL REMAIN
UNDER ITS INFLUENCE. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ABOUT 500 NM
OFFSHORE ALONG ROUGHLY 135W...BUT THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
OVER W WA WILL BE WEAK AND PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY. THIS WILL LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF MARINE MOISTURE SPREADING INLAND OVER W WA EACH
EVENING...RESULTING IN AFTERNOON CLEARING AFTER AREAS OF MORNING LOW
CLOUDS. ADDITIONAL WARMING FROM THE RIDGE WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE
SHOULD KICK MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S OVER THE INTERIOR. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP THE COAST IN THE 60S. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE SE ACROSS WA THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. LIGHT NW ALOFT. AIR MASS MOIST IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...AND SOMEWHAT MOIST ALOFT. STABLE CONDITIONS EXCEPT ALONG
THE CASCADE CREST WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE
AFTERNOON/EVENINGS...MAINLY N. THE UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE
LAYER AND WEAK LIFT MAY PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
MORNING. MVFR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY SCATTER EARLY THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD
FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING
WITH PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS WHERE DRIZZLE DEVELOPS.

KSEA...CIGS BKN 1500-2500 FT MAY BRIEFLY SCATTER EARLY THIS EVENING.
1-2K FT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 05Z. PATCHY DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK LOW MOVES SE OVER CENTRAL/ERN WA.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN...ANY SCATTERING
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE DEEP MARINE LAYER REMAINS INTACT. DTM

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND.
SMALL CRAFT WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT DURING
THE EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY EACH EVENING
IN THE STRAIT TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY OF BRIEF GALE STRENGTH WINDS TONIGHT IN THE STRAIT.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT LATE THIS
     AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML














000
FXUS66 KPQR 242126
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
225 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN B.C. THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SLOWLY MOVE INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY AND INTO IDAHO LATER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH LITTLE OR NO CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOONS. IT WILL ALSO
PROVIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME NIGHT AND MORNING DRIZZLE OVER THE
AREA...AS WELL AS A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM IN
THE HIGHER CASCADES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WEAKENING THE ONSHORE
FLOW AND ALLOWING MORE SUNSHINE TO BREAK THROUGH WITH TEMPS WARMING
ABOVE NORMAL. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEKEND MAY BRING A RETURN TO
THE MARINE LAYER AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES
AGAIN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WE HAVE SEEN A NEAR REPEAT OF THE LAST FEW DAYS AS
CLOUDY CONDITIONS COVER MOST OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME THINNING SPOTS NEAR THE NORTH
OREGON COAST RANGE BUT SUSPECT THAT ANY CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE LIMITED. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BE MODERATELY
STRONG AS ANOTHER LOW IS IN SOUTHERN B.C.  THIS LOW HAS ALSO TURNED
THE WINDS ALOFT TO MORE WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY AS WELL WHICH IS
MAINTAINING THE ONSHORE FLOW. SOME CONVECTION IS TRYING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS DRIFTING
OFF TO THE EAST. ANY THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
CONFINED TO NEAR THE CREST.

TEMPS ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO THOSE SATURDAY...BUT THE THIN SPOTS MAY
ALLOW A FEW AREAS TO REACH THE MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SOUTHERN B.C. LOW WILL DROP INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON
ON MONDAY...REINFORCING THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND THE POSSIBILITY
NIGHT AND MORNING DRIZZLE AROUND THE AREA. BELIEVE THE CLOUDS WILL
HAVE A TOUGH TIME BREAKING UP MONDAY...WITH TEMPS STAYING IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S. WITH THE LOW CENTERED IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WASHINGTON...WE MAY SEE OUR NORTHERN CASCADES ZONES MAINLY NEAR THE
CREST CLIPPED BY A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.

THE LOW IS MOVING INTO IDAHO BY LATER TUESDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD CONTINUE...THOUGH WE MIGHT SEE A FEW MORE SUN BREAKS LATE IN
THE DAY AND THE EVENING VS MONDAY...AND THIS MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO GET
CLOSER TO 70. THE BIT MORE SUNSHINE IN THE HIGHER CASCADES COMBINED
WITH THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL MAINTAIN A
CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CREST OF OUR
NORTHERN CASCADE ZONES.

ON WEDNESDAY THE LOW IS FARTHER EAST...AND 500 MB HEIGHTS CLIMB AS
WELL. WE SHOULD SEE MORE CLEARING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
INLAND TEMPS SHOULD HAVE A CHANCE TO REACH AT LEAST THE MID 70S AND
POSSIBLY HIGHER. WE STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME LATE DAY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HIGHER CASCADES CREST...AIDED BY THE INCREASED
SUNSHINE. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE PACNW MIDWEEK...DRYING OUT THE REGION. CONTINUED WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MARINE CLOUDS INLAND
OVERNIGHT...BUT STRATUS SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART CLEAR OUT BY MIDDAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S AND MAYBE LOW 80S
INLAND. A THERMAL LOW DEVELOPS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY AND
STARTS TO PUSH NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH COULD HELP
DEVELOP SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE CREST OF THE CASCADES ON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BACKGROUND FLOW
WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST THOUGH...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THESE
STORMS FROM DRIFTING WESTWARD INTO THE VALLEY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION ARE CURRENTLY A MIXTURE OF
MVFR/VFR WITH CIGS BETWEEN 020 AND 040. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
SHOWING SUN BREAKS ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND CENTRAL COAST. THESE
BREAKS LOOK TO SPREAD INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND SHOULD ALLOW THE DECK TO SCATTER OUT BRIEFLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH-END MVFR CIGS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL LIFT TO VFR
THROUGH 23Z. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER THE NORTH COAST THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE A MIXTURE OF
MVFR/VFR CIGS. ANY VFR CIGS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
FILL IN AND LOWER AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT CIGS TO FALL BELOW 025
TONIGHT...WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN
25/06-15Z. TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH MVFR CIGS
EARLY AND SUN BREAKS IN THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO AROUND 045 THIS
AFTERNOON AND COULD EVEN SCATTER OUT FOR A FEW HOURS. EXPECT ANY
CLEARING TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH MVFR CIGS FALLING BELOW 020 AFTER
25/09Z. VFR CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER 25/18Z. /64
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRES OVER
THE INLAND PAC NW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT MILD CONDITIONS
OVER THE WATERS WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF ISOLATED ADVISORY GUSTS ABOVE 21 KT
SOUTH OF NEWPORT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...DO NOT THINK THEY WILL BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN ADVISORY. MIXED SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK...WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES
DUE TO A FRESH NW SWELL. /64
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 242126
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
225 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN B.C. THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SLOWLY MOVE INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY AND INTO IDAHO LATER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH LITTLE OR NO CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOONS. IT WILL ALSO
PROVIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME NIGHT AND MORNING DRIZZLE OVER THE
AREA...AS WELL AS A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM IN
THE HIGHER CASCADES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WEAKENING THE ONSHORE
FLOW AND ALLOWING MORE SUNSHINE TO BREAK THROUGH WITH TEMPS WARMING
ABOVE NORMAL. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEKEND MAY BRING A RETURN TO
THE MARINE LAYER AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES
AGAIN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WE HAVE SEEN A NEAR REPEAT OF THE LAST FEW DAYS AS
CLOUDY CONDITIONS COVER MOST OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME THINNING SPOTS NEAR THE NORTH
OREGON COAST RANGE BUT SUSPECT THAT ANY CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE LIMITED. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BE MODERATELY
STRONG AS ANOTHER LOW IS IN SOUTHERN B.C.  THIS LOW HAS ALSO TURNED
THE WINDS ALOFT TO MORE WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY AS WELL WHICH IS
MAINTAINING THE ONSHORE FLOW. SOME CONVECTION IS TRYING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS DRIFTING
OFF TO THE EAST. ANY THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
CONFINED TO NEAR THE CREST.

TEMPS ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO THOSE SATURDAY...BUT THE THIN SPOTS MAY
ALLOW A FEW AREAS TO REACH THE MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SOUTHERN B.C. LOW WILL DROP INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON
ON MONDAY...REINFORCING THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND THE POSSIBILITY
NIGHT AND MORNING DRIZZLE AROUND THE AREA. BELIEVE THE CLOUDS WILL
HAVE A TOUGH TIME BREAKING UP MONDAY...WITH TEMPS STAYING IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S. WITH THE LOW CENTERED IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WASHINGTON...WE MAY SEE OUR NORTHERN CASCADES ZONES MAINLY NEAR THE
CREST CLIPPED BY A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.

THE LOW IS MOVING INTO IDAHO BY LATER TUESDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD CONTINUE...THOUGH WE MIGHT SEE A FEW MORE SUN BREAKS LATE IN
THE DAY AND THE EVENING VS MONDAY...AND THIS MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO GET
CLOSER TO 70. THE BIT MORE SUNSHINE IN THE HIGHER CASCADES COMBINED
WITH THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL MAINTAIN A
CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CREST OF OUR
NORTHERN CASCADE ZONES.

ON WEDNESDAY THE LOW IS FARTHER EAST...AND 500 MB HEIGHTS CLIMB AS
WELL. WE SHOULD SEE MORE CLEARING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
INLAND TEMPS SHOULD HAVE A CHANCE TO REACH AT LEAST THE MID 70S AND
POSSIBLY HIGHER. WE STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME LATE DAY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HIGHER CASCADES CREST...AIDED BY THE INCREASED
SUNSHINE. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE PACNW MIDWEEK...DRYING OUT THE REGION. CONTINUED WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MARINE CLOUDS INLAND
OVERNIGHT...BUT STRATUS SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART CLEAR OUT BY MIDDAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S AND MAYBE LOW 80S
INLAND. A THERMAL LOW DEVELOPS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY AND
STARTS TO PUSH NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH COULD HELP
DEVELOP SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE CREST OF THE CASCADES ON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BACKGROUND FLOW
WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST THOUGH...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THESE
STORMS FROM DRIFTING WESTWARD INTO THE VALLEY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION ARE CURRENTLY A MIXTURE OF
MVFR/VFR WITH CIGS BETWEEN 020 AND 040. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
SHOWING SUN BREAKS ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND CENTRAL COAST. THESE
BREAKS LOOK TO SPREAD INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND SHOULD ALLOW THE DECK TO SCATTER OUT BRIEFLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH-END MVFR CIGS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL LIFT TO VFR
THROUGH 23Z. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER THE NORTH COAST THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE THE CENTRAL COAST WILL SEE A MIXTURE OF
MVFR/VFR CIGS. ANY VFR CIGS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
FILL IN AND LOWER AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT CIGS TO FALL BELOW 025
TONIGHT...WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN
25/06-15Z. TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH MVFR CIGS
EARLY AND SUN BREAKS IN THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO AROUND 045 THIS
AFTERNOON AND COULD EVEN SCATTER OUT FOR A FEW HOURS. EXPECT ANY
CLEARING TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH MVFR CIGS FALLING BELOW 020 AFTER
25/09Z. VFR CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER 25/18Z. /64
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRES OVER
THE INLAND PAC NW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT MILD CONDITIONS
OVER THE WATERS WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF ISOLATED ADVISORY GUSTS ABOVE 21 KT
SOUTH OF NEWPORT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...DO NOT THINK THEY WILL BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN ADVISORY. MIXED SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK...WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES
DUE TO A FRESH NW SWELL. /64
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 242116
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
216 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves into the Inland Northwest through mid-week,
providing scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and
smaller chances in the morning and night. Locally heavy rain,
small hail and gusty winds will be possible in storms. Some chance
of showers continues into the second part of the week into next
weekend, especially in the mountains. Next weekend also looks to
warm with summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday: A low pressure will continue to move
across the Inland Northwest from Southern BC. The NAM has been
handling this situation better than the GFS and ECMWF as it was
picking up on the instability along the Northern Mtns better. With
cape values in the 500-1000 J/kg and -3 to -4 Lifted index,
decent development of these storms is possible. Small hail and
gusty winds from outflow boundaries could be produced from these
storms. Convection is expected to continue into the overnight
hours along the Northern Mtns but will be decreasing overnight as
sfc heating will decrease. The Camas Prairie and Central Panhandle
can expect thunderstorms from this system. With the moisture and
instability located over the Northern Mtns and ID Panhandle, burn
scar areas are not expected to be impacted with heavy rain showers
bringing flash flooding.

Memorial Day: While Monday is expected to be several degrees
cooler than Sunday, a very similar pattern is expected impact the
region. The Low will continue to slowly move through the region.
The indices are similar to Sunday. With the Low dropped further
south, the threat of thunderstorms is stretched into the lower
Columbia Basin during the afternoon hours. High temperatures are
expected to be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. /JDC

Monday night through Sunday: The Inland NW remains unsettled with
a threat of showers and thunderstorms most days, especially
through mid-week as an upper low migrates across the region.
Temperatures will also warm as the period progresses with milder
air being pumped in on an increasing southwest flow. If longer
range models are to be believed (and there is decent agreement at
this point) highs may approach the mid to upper 80s to lower 90s
by the week`s end.

First between Monday night and Wednesday low pressure migrates
from the Cascades to the northern Rockies. Moisture and
instability wrapped up in this feature will lead to showers and
thunderstorms. These will be most numerous through Tuesday, during
the afternoon and early evening with the prime instability, and
around the periphery of this low where lift and the focusing
mechanism will be best (i.e. the mountains and a theta-e ridge).
This means they will be most numerous outside of the deeper
Columbia Basin and lower Palouse into the L-C Valley. During the
overnight and morning hours the thunderstorm risk will decline,
while showers will become more isolated. By Wednesday the low
starts to shift east and some drier air and subsidence starts to
come in on the north to northwest flow. So by then the main
shower/thunderstorm chances begin to retreat to the mountains.
However chances will continue around the eastern third of WA into
the L-C Valley, with the overall best chance in these areas in the
afternoon/evening over the Palouse southward.

Potential impacts come from locally heavy downpours and possible
localized flash flooding/debris flow, especially around the burn
scars and with any slow-moving shower/t-storms. Other possible
impacts will be the threat of gusty winds, hail and localized
frequent lightning, with the best chances for these right now the
northeast WA and the ID Panhandle. But overall shear is not too
impressive to support long-lived organized cells.

From Thursday to Sunday the region transitions from a north/northwest
flow to west-southwest flow. Another low migrates south across BC
and a deeper trough deepens off the Pacific coast. Impulses ride
into the region in this evolving flow on Thursday, late Friday
into Saturday and again toward Sunday. However the precise
evolution of these features is apt to change over the next several
days. With instability expanding each afternoon there will be some
threat of showers and thunderstorm each day, especially around the
mountains through Friday and potentially expanding to a broader
area going into next weekend as models try to bring most
substantial impulses in. There is some disagreement and
inconsistency among models out that far. Yet this is a pattern to
monitor for possible organized/stronger thunderstorms with milder
air being pumped in and shortwave coming in from the southwest.
/J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: During the afternoon, an upper level low pressure
system moves into the region bringing showers and thunderstorms
mainly east and north of KEAT. Best chances for thunderstorms
will be in the Cascade Mtns north of Lake Chelan over into the
Northern Panhandle. Thunderstorms will develop over the Cascades
early in the afternoon and then spread eastward through the day
into the overnight hours. There is moderate confidence that at
least isolated thunderstorms will impact KMWH, KGEG, KSFF and
KCOE. Confidence is low that thunderstorms will impact KEAT, KPUW
and KLWS. By 13Z, stable conditions have returned to region and
threats of thunderstorms have diminished. /JDC


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  71  51  73  52  77 /  40  50  40  60  40  30
Coeur d`Alene  53  70  49  73  50  75 /  50  70  40  60  40  40
Pullman        49  69  45  71  47  73 /  10  20  10  40  30  40
Lewiston       55  77  52  78  55  79 /  10  20  10  20  20  30
Colville       52  74  50  76  50  81 /  50  90  60  70  40  30
Sandpoint      51  70  48  72  49  74 /  50  70  60  60  50  40
Kellogg        51  70  46  72  47  73 /  20  80  50  60  50  50
Moses Lake     54  79  54  80  53  84 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Wenatchee      56  78  56  79  59  84 /  10  20  20  40  30  20
Omak           50  77  50  78  51  84 /  40  50  50  60  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 241753
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1053 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s over much of the Inland Northwest. The arrival of a
cold front tonight will cool temperatures closer to average on
Memorial Day. The front will also bring an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the region. Some thunderstorms across
the northern mountains may become strong with hail and gusty
outflows winds possible. Slow moving afternoon thunderstorms
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be capable of producing
locally heavy rain. Next weekend looks to be quite warm with
summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: The most noticeable change from the previous forecast was
the inclusion of the Moses Lake area into isolated thunderstorm
chance for this afternoon as a cold front pushes through the
region. The NAM still appears to be handling this system well as
it is picking up on the showers and instability along the east
side of the Okanogan Valley along the Canadian Border. With Cape
values in the 500 J/kg and precipitable water values of under an
inch, small hail and brief heavy rain burst could be possible with
these thunderstorms. Temperatures were adjusted slightly but still
expected to be in the low 80s to mid 70s for today. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: During the afternoon, an upper level low pressure
system moves into the region bringing showers and thunderstorms
mainly east and north of KEAT. Best chances for thunderstorms
will be in the Cascade Mtns north of Lake Chelan over into the
Northern Panhandle. Thunderstorms will develop over the Cascades
early in the afternoon and then spread eastward through the day
into the overnight hours. There is moderate confidence that at
least isolated thunderstorms will impact KMWH, KGEG, KSFF and
KCOE. Confidence is low that thunderstorms will impact KEAT, KPUW
and KLWS. By 13Z, stable conditions have returned to region and
threats of thunderstorms have diminished. /JDC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  54  71  51  73  52 /  10  50  60  40  50  40
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  70  49  73  50 /  10  30  60  40  50  40
Pullman        74  50  70  45  71  47 /  10  20  30  10  30  30
Lewiston       81  54  77  52  78  55 /  20  20  30  10  30  30
Colville       83  53  72  50  76  50 /  40  70  70  60  70  40
Sandpoint      79  52  70  48  71  50 /  10  50  70  60  60  50
Kellogg        78  51  71  46  72  47 /  10  30  70  50  60  50
Moses Lake     83  55  79  54  80  53 /  10  20  10  20  40  20
Wenatchee      82  55  78  56  78  58 /  20  10  20  20  50  30
Omak           83  53  76  51  78  51 /  60  60  60  50  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 241753
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1053 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s over much of the Inland Northwest. The arrival of a
cold front tonight will cool temperatures closer to average on
Memorial Day. The front will also bring an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the region. Some thunderstorms across
the northern mountains may become strong with hail and gusty
outflows winds possible. Slow moving afternoon thunderstorms
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be capable of producing
locally heavy rain. Next weekend looks to be quite warm with
summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: The most noticeable change from the previous forecast was
the inclusion of the Moses Lake area into isolated thunderstorm
chance for this afternoon as a cold front pushes through the
region. The NAM still appears to be handling this system well as
it is picking up on the showers and instability along the east
side of the Okanogan Valley along the Canadian Border. With Cape
values in the 500 J/kg and precipitable water values of under an
inch, small hail and brief heavy rain burst could be possible with
these thunderstorms. Temperatures were adjusted slightly but still
expected to be in the low 80s to mid 70s for today. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: During the afternoon, an upper level low pressure
system moves into the region bringing showers and thunderstorms
mainly east and north of KEAT. Best chances for thunderstorms
will be in the Cascade Mtns north of Lake Chelan over into the
Northern Panhandle. Thunderstorms will develop over the Cascades
early in the afternoon and then spread eastward through the day
into the overnight hours. There is moderate confidence that at
least isolated thunderstorms will impact KMWH, KGEG, KSFF and
KCOE. Confidence is low that thunderstorms will impact KEAT, KPUW
and KLWS. By 13Z, stable conditions have returned to region and
threats of thunderstorms have diminished. /JDC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  54  71  51  73  52 /  10  50  60  40  50  40
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  70  49  73  50 /  10  30  60  40  50  40
Pullman        74  50  70  45  71  47 /  10  20  30  10  30  30
Lewiston       81  54  77  52  78  55 /  20  20  30  10  30  30
Colville       83  53  72  50  76  50 /  40  70  70  60  70  40
Sandpoint      79  52  70  48  71  50 /  10  50  70  60  60  50
Kellogg        78  51  71  46  72  47 /  10  30  70  50  60  50
Moses Lake     83  55  79  54  80  53 /  10  20  10  20  40  20
Wenatchee      82  55  78  56  78  58 /  20  10  20  20  50  30
Omak           83  53  76  51  78  51 /  60  60  60  50  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 241753
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1053 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s over much of the Inland Northwest. The arrival of a
cold front tonight will cool temperatures closer to average on
Memorial Day. The front will also bring an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the region. Some thunderstorms across
the northern mountains may become strong with hail and gusty
outflows winds possible. Slow moving afternoon thunderstorms
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be capable of producing
locally heavy rain. Next weekend looks to be quite warm with
summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: The most noticeable change from the previous forecast was
the inclusion of the Moses Lake area into isolated thunderstorm
chance for this afternoon as a cold front pushes through the
region. The NAM still appears to be handling this system well as
it is picking up on the showers and instability along the east
side of the Okanogan Valley along the Canadian Border. With Cape
values in the 500 J/kg and precipitable water values of under an
inch, small hail and brief heavy rain burst could be possible with
these thunderstorms. Temperatures were adjusted slightly but still
expected to be in the low 80s to mid 70s for today. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: During the afternoon, an upper level low pressure
system moves into the region bringing showers and thunderstorms
mainly east and north of KEAT. Best chances for thunderstorms
will be in the Cascade Mtns north of Lake Chelan over into the
Northern Panhandle. Thunderstorms will develop over the Cascades
early in the afternoon and then spread eastward through the day
into the overnight hours. There is moderate confidence that at
least isolated thunderstorms will impact KMWH, KGEG, KSFF and
KCOE. Confidence is low that thunderstorms will impact KEAT, KPUW
and KLWS. By 13Z, stable conditions have returned to region and
threats of thunderstorms have diminished. /JDC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  54  71  51  73  52 /  10  50  60  40  50  40
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  70  49  73  50 /  10  30  60  40  50  40
Pullman        74  50  70  45  71  47 /  10  20  30  10  30  30
Lewiston       81  54  77  52  78  55 /  20  20  30  10  30  30
Colville       83  53  72  50  76  50 /  40  70  70  60  70  40
Sandpoint      79  52  70  48  71  50 /  10  50  70  60  60  50
Kellogg        78  51  71  46  72  47 /  10  30  70  50  60  50
Moses Lake     83  55  79  54  80  53 /  10  20  10  20  40  20
Wenatchee      82  55  78  56  78  58 /  20  10  20  20  50  30
Omak           83  53  76  51  78  51 /  60  60  60  50  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 241753
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1053 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s over much of the Inland Northwest. The arrival of a
cold front tonight will cool temperatures closer to average on
Memorial Day. The front will also bring an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the region. Some thunderstorms across
the northern mountains may become strong with hail and gusty
outflows winds possible. Slow moving afternoon thunderstorms
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be capable of producing
locally heavy rain. Next weekend looks to be quite warm with
summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: The most noticeable change from the previous forecast was
the inclusion of the Moses Lake area into isolated thunderstorm
chance for this afternoon as a cold front pushes through the
region. The NAM still appears to be handling this system well as
it is picking up on the showers and instability along the east
side of the Okanogan Valley along the Canadian Border. With Cape
values in the 500 J/kg and precipitable water values of under an
inch, small hail and brief heavy rain burst could be possible with
these thunderstorms. Temperatures were adjusted slightly but still
expected to be in the low 80s to mid 70s for today. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: During the afternoon, an upper level low pressure
system moves into the region bringing showers and thunderstorms
mainly east and north of KEAT. Best chances for thunderstorms
will be in the Cascade Mtns north of Lake Chelan over into the
Northern Panhandle. Thunderstorms will develop over the Cascades
early in the afternoon and then spread eastward through the day
into the overnight hours. There is moderate confidence that at
least isolated thunderstorms will impact KMWH, KGEG, KSFF and
KCOE. Confidence is low that thunderstorms will impact KEAT, KPUW
and KLWS. By 13Z, stable conditions have returned to region and
threats of thunderstorms have diminished. /JDC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  54  71  51  73  52 /  10  50  60  40  50  40
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  70  49  73  50 /  10  30  60  40  50  40
Pullman        74  50  70  45  71  47 /  10  20  30  10  30  30
Lewiston       81  54  77  52  78  55 /  20  20  30  10  30  30
Colville       83  53  72  50  76  50 /  40  70  70  60  70  40
Sandpoint      79  52  70  48  71  50 /  10  50  70  60  60  50
Kellogg        78  51  71  46  72  47 /  10  30  70  50  60  50
Moses Lake     83  55  79  54  80  53 /  10  20  10  20  40  20
Wenatchee      82  55  78  56  78  58 /  20  10  20  20  50  30
Omak           83  53  76  51  78  51 /  60  60  60  50  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 241753
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1053 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s over much of the Inland Northwest. The arrival of a
cold front tonight will cool temperatures closer to average on
Memorial Day. The front will also bring an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the region. Some thunderstorms across
the northern mountains may become strong with hail and gusty
outflows winds possible. Slow moving afternoon thunderstorms
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be capable of producing
locally heavy rain. Next weekend looks to be quite warm with
summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: The most noticeable change from the previous forecast was
the inclusion of the Moses Lake area into isolated thunderstorm
chance for this afternoon as a cold front pushes through the
region. The NAM still appears to be handling this system well as
it is picking up on the showers and instability along the east
side of the Okanogan Valley along the Canadian Border. With Cape
values in the 500 J/kg and precipitable water values of under an
inch, small hail and brief heavy rain burst could be possible with
these thunderstorms. Temperatures were adjusted slightly but still
expected to be in the low 80s to mid 70s for today. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: During the afternoon, an upper level low pressure
system moves into the region bringing showers and thunderstorms
mainly east and north of KEAT. Best chances for thunderstorms
will be in the Cascade Mtns north of Lake Chelan over into the
Northern Panhandle. Thunderstorms will develop over the Cascades
early in the afternoon and then spread eastward through the day
into the overnight hours. There is moderate confidence that at
least isolated thunderstorms will impact KMWH, KGEG, KSFF and
KCOE. Confidence is low that thunderstorms will impact KEAT, KPUW
and KLWS. By 13Z, stable conditions have returned to region and
threats of thunderstorms have diminished. /JDC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  54  71  51  73  52 /  10  50  60  40  50  40
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  70  49  73  50 /  10  30  60  40  50  40
Pullman        74  50  70  45  71  47 /  10  20  30  10  30  30
Lewiston       81  54  77  52  78  55 /  20  20  30  10  30  30
Colville       83  53  72  50  76  50 /  40  70  70  60  70  40
Sandpoint      79  52  70  48  71  50 /  10  50  70  60  60  50
Kellogg        78  51  71  46  72  47 /  10  30  70  50  60  50
Moses Lake     83  55  79  54  80  53 /  10  20  10  20  40  20
Wenatchee      82  55  78  56  78  58 /  20  10  20  20  50  30
Omak           83  53  76  51  78  51 /  60  60  60  50  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 241753
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1053 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s over much of the Inland Northwest. The arrival of a
cold front tonight will cool temperatures closer to average on
Memorial Day. The front will also bring an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the region. Some thunderstorms across
the northern mountains may become strong with hail and gusty
outflows winds possible. Slow moving afternoon thunderstorms
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be capable of producing
locally heavy rain. Next weekend looks to be quite warm with
summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: The most noticeable change from the previous forecast was
the inclusion of the Moses Lake area into isolated thunderstorm
chance for this afternoon as a cold front pushes through the
region. The NAM still appears to be handling this system well as
it is picking up on the showers and instability along the east
side of the Okanogan Valley along the Canadian Border. With Cape
values in the 500 J/kg and precipitable water values of under an
inch, small hail and brief heavy rain burst could be possible with
these thunderstorms. Temperatures were adjusted slightly but still
expected to be in the low 80s to mid 70s for today. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: During the afternoon, an upper level low pressure
system moves into the region bringing showers and thunderstorms
mainly east and north of KEAT. Best chances for thunderstorms
will be in the Cascade Mtns north of Lake Chelan over into the
Northern Panhandle. Thunderstorms will develop over the Cascades
early in the afternoon and then spread eastward through the day
into the overnight hours. There is moderate confidence that at
least isolated thunderstorms will impact KMWH, KGEG, KSFF and
KCOE. Confidence is low that thunderstorms will impact KEAT, KPUW
and KLWS. By 13Z, stable conditions have returned to region and
threats of thunderstorms have diminished. /JDC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  54  71  51  73  52 /  10  50  60  40  50  40
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  70  49  73  50 /  10  30  60  40  50  40
Pullman        74  50  70  45  71  47 /  10  20  30  10  30  30
Lewiston       81  54  77  52  78  55 /  20  20  30  10  30  30
Colville       83  53  72  50  76  50 /  40  70  70  60  70  40
Sandpoint      79  52  70  48  71  50 /  10  50  70  60  60  50
Kellogg        78  51  71  46  72  47 /  10  30  70  50  60  50
Moses Lake     83  55  79  54  80  53 /  10  20  10  20  40  20
Wenatchee      82  55  78  56  78  58 /  20  10  20  20  50  30
Omak           83  53  76  51  78  51 /  60  60  60  50  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 241642
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
941 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM SOUTHERN B.C.
TODAY ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY AND INTO IDAHO LATER TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH LITTLE OR NO CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOONS. IT WILL ALSO PROVIDE
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME NIGHT AND MORNING DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA...AS
WELL AS A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER CASCADES. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK...WEAKENING THE ONSHORE FLOW AND ALLOWING MORE SUNSHINE TO
BREAK THROUGH WITH WARMING TEMPS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WE ARE SEEING A NEAR REPEAT OF THE LAST FEW DAYS AS
CLOUDY CONDITIONS COVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BE MODERATELY STRONG AS ANOTHER LOW IS IN
SOUTHERN B.C.  HOWEVER...THIS HAS TURNED THE WINDS ALOFT TO MORE WEST
AND NORTHWESTERLY AS WELL...REINFORCING THE ONSHORE FLOW BUT ALSO
BRINGING AN END TO THE EASTERLY FLOW AND THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. IF
ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP TODAY IT WILL BE NEAR THE CREST OF THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES DUE TO FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN B.C. LOW.

TEMPS TODAY MIGHT CREEP UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...BUT STILL STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AS CLOUDS STAY
PERSISTENT.

THE SOUTHERN B.C. LOW WILL DROP INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON
ON MONDAY...MAINTAINING THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND THE POSSIBILITY
NIGHT AND MORNING DRIZZLE AROUND THE AREA. BELIEVE THE CLOUDS WILL
HAVE A TOUGH TIME AGAIN BREAKING UP MONDAY...WITH TEMPS STAYING IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH THE LOW CENTERED IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WASHINGTON...WE MAY SEE OUR NORTHERN CASCADES ZONES CLIPPED BY A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.

THE LOW IS MOVING INTO IDAHO BY LATER TUESDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD CONTINUE...THOUGH WE MIGHT SEE A FEW SUN BREAKS LATE IN THE
DAY AND IN THE EVENING. THE BIT MORE SUNSHINE IN THE HIGHER CASCADES
CONTINUED WITH THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS NEAR THE CREST OF OUR NORTHERN
CASCADE ZONES. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE
MONDAY SYSTEM WILL KEEP COOL CLOUDY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOST
PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY UP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CASCADES. BROUGHT TEMPS BACK DOWN SOME THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE REGION STAYING UNDER WEAK ONSHORE FLOW.
TEMPERATURES DO WARM SOME THU-SAT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE
REGION. A THERMAL LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL SET UP A GOOD PATTERN FOR DRY
WEATHER FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH CLEARER SKIES IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
CASCADES. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A NEAR REPEAT OF THE LAST 24 HOURS. MARINE LAYER
WILL REMAIN IN SOME FORM FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT DO STAND A BETTER
SHOT AT NOTABLE INLAND CLOUD BREAKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. MVFR CIGS AT THE COAST FOR THE DAY ALTHOUGH DO SEE HINTS IN
MODELS AT KONP BREAKING FREE FOR A FEW HOURS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.
MVFR CIGS INLAND THIS MORNING WILL LIFT TO A VFR CIG SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN 21-23Z. MAY ACTUALLY GET ENOUGH MIXING TO SEE THE DECK
SCATTER OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE FILLING BACK IN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. CIGS FALL BACK DOWN TO
MVFR AROUND 025 TONIGHT...WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST AFTER 25/06Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS AROUND 025 THROUGH ABOUT 22Z. WILL
SEE THE DECK LIFT TO BETWEEN 035 AND 045 PERHAPS OPENING THE DOOR TO
A PERIOD OF VISUAL APPROACHES IN THE 25/00-04Z TIME FRAME. MVFR CIGS
AROUND 020 LIKELY AFTER 25/09Z. /JBONK/64
&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HIGH
PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRES OVER THE INLAND PAC NW FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BENIGN CONDITIONS TO
THE WATERS WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR SOME ADVISORY GUSTS ABOVE 21 KT SUN AND MON AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SOUTH OF NEWPORT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT IT
WILL COME TO FRUITION. STRONGER WINDS OFF THE B.C. COAST ARE
PRODUCING A FRESH SWELL OUT OF THE NW AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. /64
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 241642
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
941 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM SOUTHERN B.C.
TODAY ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY AND INTO IDAHO LATER TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH LITTLE OR NO CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOONS. IT WILL ALSO PROVIDE
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME NIGHT AND MORNING DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA...AS
WELL AS A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER CASCADES. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK...WEAKENING THE ONSHORE FLOW AND ALLOWING MORE SUNSHINE TO
BREAK THROUGH WITH WARMING TEMPS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WE ARE SEEING A NEAR REPEAT OF THE LAST FEW DAYS AS
CLOUDY CONDITIONS COVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BE MODERATELY STRONG AS ANOTHER LOW IS IN
SOUTHERN B.C.  HOWEVER...THIS HAS TURNED THE WINDS ALOFT TO MORE WEST
AND NORTHWESTERLY AS WELL...REINFORCING THE ONSHORE FLOW BUT ALSO
BRINGING AN END TO THE EASTERLY FLOW AND THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. IF
ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP TODAY IT WILL BE NEAR THE CREST OF THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES DUE TO FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN B.C. LOW.

TEMPS TODAY MIGHT CREEP UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...BUT STILL STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AS CLOUDS STAY
PERSISTENT.

THE SOUTHERN B.C. LOW WILL DROP INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON
ON MONDAY...MAINTAINING THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND THE POSSIBILITY
NIGHT AND MORNING DRIZZLE AROUND THE AREA. BELIEVE THE CLOUDS WILL
HAVE A TOUGH TIME AGAIN BREAKING UP MONDAY...WITH TEMPS STAYING IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH THE LOW CENTERED IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WASHINGTON...WE MAY SEE OUR NORTHERN CASCADES ZONES CLIPPED BY A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.

THE LOW IS MOVING INTO IDAHO BY LATER TUESDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD CONTINUE...THOUGH WE MIGHT SEE A FEW SUN BREAKS LATE IN THE
DAY AND IN THE EVENING. THE BIT MORE SUNSHINE IN THE HIGHER CASCADES
CONTINUED WITH THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS NEAR THE CREST OF OUR NORTHERN
CASCADE ZONES. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE
MONDAY SYSTEM WILL KEEP COOL CLOUDY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOST
PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY UP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CASCADES. BROUGHT TEMPS BACK DOWN SOME THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE REGION STAYING UNDER WEAK ONSHORE FLOW.
TEMPERATURES DO WARM SOME THU-SAT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE
REGION. A THERMAL LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL SET UP A GOOD PATTERN FOR DRY
WEATHER FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH CLEARER SKIES IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
CASCADES. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A NEAR REPEAT OF THE LAST 24 HOURS. MARINE LAYER
WILL REMAIN IN SOME FORM FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT DO STAND A BETTER
SHOT AT NOTABLE INLAND CLOUD BREAKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. MVFR CIGS AT THE COAST FOR THE DAY ALTHOUGH DO SEE HINTS IN
MODELS AT KONP BREAKING FREE FOR A FEW HOURS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.
MVFR CIGS INLAND THIS MORNING WILL LIFT TO A VFR CIG SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN 21-23Z. MAY ACTUALLY GET ENOUGH MIXING TO SEE THE DECK
SCATTER OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE FILLING BACK IN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. CIGS FALL BACK DOWN TO
MVFR AROUND 025 TONIGHT...WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST AFTER 25/06Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS AROUND 025 THROUGH ABOUT 22Z. WILL
SEE THE DECK LIFT TO BETWEEN 035 AND 045 PERHAPS OPENING THE DOOR TO
A PERIOD OF VISUAL APPROACHES IN THE 25/00-04Z TIME FRAME. MVFR CIGS
AROUND 020 LIKELY AFTER 25/09Z. /JBONK/64
&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HIGH
PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRES OVER THE INLAND PAC NW FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BENIGN CONDITIONS TO
THE WATERS WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR SOME ADVISORY GUSTS ABOVE 21 KT SUN AND MON AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SOUTH OF NEWPORT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT IT
WILL COME TO FRUITION. STRONGER WINDS OFF THE B.C. COAST ARE
PRODUCING A FRESH SWELL OUT OF THE NW AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. /64
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 241601
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY. WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW FROM MID WEEK ONWARD WILL ALLOW
MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND. THE AIR MASS OVER THE
CASCADES WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE LATE IN THE DAY
KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS W WA UNDER CLOUDS
AGAIN THIS MORNING...WITH VARIOUS CLOUD LAYERS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN ONSHORE TODAY KEEPING THE MARINE
LAYER INTACT...SO AT THE BEST THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SUN BREAKS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SE OVER B.C. WILL END UP JUST N OF
VANCOUVER AT 00Z/5 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THE APPROACH OF THE LOW WILL
KEEP MID LEVEL STEERING WINDS WESTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM OVER THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON E OF THE
CREST. THE FORECAST STILL HAS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE CREST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH IS REASONABLE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE N CASCADES NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER MONDAY MORNING THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY OVER THE OKANOGAN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS TO CAUSE SOME SUBTLE BUT IMPORTANT CHANGES.
THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS INTACT AND WEAK LIFT FROM THE LOW MAY
PRODUCE AREAS OF DRIZZLE OVER THE INTERIOR MONDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY
EXTENDING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE CASCADES. DRIZZLE COVERAGE
WILL HAVE TO BE EXPANDED IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. DRIER N-NW FLOW
ON THE W SIDE OF THE LOW WILL WORK DOWN PAST 850 MB NEAR THE TOP OF
THE MARINE LAYER...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN THE MARINE LAYER ENOUGH FOR
SOME SUN BREAKS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. FINALLY...WITH THE
LOW CENTER OVER OR NEAR THE N CASCADES THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
UNSTABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. STEERING WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE
OR NORTHERLY WHICH WOULD OPEN MAINLY THE N CASCADES TO AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN.

ON TUESDAY...ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY NIGHT SEEMS TO HAVE A BIT MORE
WESTERLY COMPONENT AND IS WEAKER. IN ADDITION...DRIER N-NW FLOW
APPEARS TO WORK DOWN LOWER IN THE MARINE LAYER...TO AROUND 925
MB/2500 FEET. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE MARINE LAYER FURTHER...ENOUGH FOR
PARTIAL CLEARING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO
WARM TO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE
HANGING OUT NEAR SPOKANE SO THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE CASCADES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 315 AM AFD...EXTENDED
MODELS AGAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE
COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AND REMAINING OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 570 DMS WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO
AROUND PLUS 15C. SURFACE GRADIENTS REMAIN ONSHORE WHICH WILL TEMPER
THE WARMING TREND SOMEWHAT BUT THE ONSHORE GRADIENTS ALSO WEAKEN
LEADING TO MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER DAYS. HIGHS WILL GET INTO THE
70S IN MANY LOCATIONS IN THE INTERIOR ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN IN THE
70S THROUGH SATURDAY. THE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE KEEPING THE THREAT OF LATE DAY CONVECTION IN THE
FORECAST. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SRN B.C. THIS MORNING WILL
DIVE SWD OVER WA LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER. SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP WHEN THE CLOUD CEILINGS LIFT. BREAK OUT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS TODAY WITH PREDOMINATELY MVFR CIGS
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND WEAKLY
UNSTABLE ALOFT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT W-NWLY.

KSEA...CEILING 1-2K FT THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL IFR THROUGH
17Z... GRADUALLY LIFTING TO AROUND 2500 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT
DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR AS CEILINGS LIFT LATER TODAY. BREAKOUT IS NOT
EXPECTED. SW WIND 4-8 KT. DTM

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND.
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE STRAIT WILL RUN 10 TO 20 KT THROUGH EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON...THEN RISE TO SMALL CRAFT 15 TO 25 KT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY EACH EVENING IN THE
STRAIT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
BRIEF GALE STRENGTH WIND TONIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. CHB/DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT LATE THIS
     AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML











000
FXUS66 KSEW 241601
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY. WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW FROM MID WEEK ONWARD WILL ALLOW
MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND. THE AIR MASS OVER THE
CASCADES WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE LATE IN THE DAY
KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS W WA UNDER CLOUDS
AGAIN THIS MORNING...WITH VARIOUS CLOUD LAYERS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN ONSHORE TODAY KEEPING THE MARINE
LAYER INTACT...SO AT THE BEST THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SUN BREAKS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SE OVER B.C. WILL END UP JUST N OF
VANCOUVER AT 00Z/5 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THE APPROACH OF THE LOW WILL
KEEP MID LEVEL STEERING WINDS WESTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM OVER THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON E OF THE
CREST. THE FORECAST STILL HAS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE CREST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH IS REASONABLE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE N CASCADES NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER MONDAY MORNING THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY OVER THE OKANOGAN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS TO CAUSE SOME SUBTLE BUT IMPORTANT CHANGES.
THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS INTACT AND WEAK LIFT FROM THE LOW MAY
PRODUCE AREAS OF DRIZZLE OVER THE INTERIOR MONDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY
EXTENDING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE CASCADES. DRIZZLE COVERAGE
WILL HAVE TO BE EXPANDED IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. DRIER N-NW FLOW
ON THE W SIDE OF THE LOW WILL WORK DOWN PAST 850 MB NEAR THE TOP OF
THE MARINE LAYER...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN THE MARINE LAYER ENOUGH FOR
SOME SUN BREAKS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. FINALLY...WITH THE
LOW CENTER OVER OR NEAR THE N CASCADES THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
UNSTABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. STEERING WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE
OR NORTHERLY WHICH WOULD OPEN MAINLY THE N CASCADES TO AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN.

ON TUESDAY...ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY NIGHT SEEMS TO HAVE A BIT MORE
WESTERLY COMPONENT AND IS WEAKER. IN ADDITION...DRIER N-NW FLOW
APPEARS TO WORK DOWN LOWER IN THE MARINE LAYER...TO AROUND 925
MB/2500 FEET. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE MARINE LAYER FURTHER...ENOUGH FOR
PARTIAL CLEARING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO
WARM TO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE
HANGING OUT NEAR SPOKANE SO THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE CASCADES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 315 AM AFD...EXTENDED
MODELS AGAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE
COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AND REMAINING OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 570 DMS WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO
AROUND PLUS 15C. SURFACE GRADIENTS REMAIN ONSHORE WHICH WILL TEMPER
THE WARMING TREND SOMEWHAT BUT THE ONSHORE GRADIENTS ALSO WEAKEN
LEADING TO MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER DAYS. HIGHS WILL GET INTO THE
70S IN MANY LOCATIONS IN THE INTERIOR ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN IN THE
70S THROUGH SATURDAY. THE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE KEEPING THE THREAT OF LATE DAY CONVECTION IN THE
FORECAST. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SRN B.C. THIS MORNING WILL
DIVE SWD OVER WA LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER. SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP WHEN THE CLOUD CEILINGS LIFT. BREAK OUT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS TODAY WITH PREDOMINATELY MVFR CIGS
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND WEAKLY
UNSTABLE ALOFT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT W-NWLY.

KSEA...CEILING 1-2K FT THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL IFR THROUGH
17Z... GRADUALLY LIFTING TO AROUND 2500 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT
DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR AS CEILINGS LIFT LATER TODAY. BREAKOUT IS NOT
EXPECTED. SW WIND 4-8 KT. DTM

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND.
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE STRAIT WILL RUN 10 TO 20 KT THROUGH EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON...THEN RISE TO SMALL CRAFT 15 TO 25 KT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY EACH EVENING IN THE
STRAIT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
BRIEF GALE STRENGTH WIND TONIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. CHB/DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT LATE THIS
     AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KOTX 241558
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
858 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s over much of the Inland Northwest. The arrival of a
cold front tonight will cool temperatures closer to average on
Memorial Day. The front will also bring an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the region. Some thunderstorms across
the northern mountains may become strong with hail and gusty
outflows winds possible. Slow moving afternoon thunderstorms
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be capable of producing
locally heavy rain. Next weekend looks to be quite warm with
summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: The most noticeable change from the previous forecast was
the inclusion of the Moses Lake area into isolated thunderstorm
chance for this afternoon as a cold front pushes through the
region. The NAM still appears to be handling this system well as
it is picking up on the showers and instability along the east
sideof the Okanogan Valley along the Canadian Border. With Cape
values in the 500 J/kg and precipitable water values of under an
inch, small hail and brief heavy rain burst could be possible with
these thunderstorms. Temperatures were adjusted slightly but still
expected to be in the low 80s to mid 70s for today. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Abundant boundary layer moisture is expected to result
in low cumulus development through the morning at the KPUW TAF
site with MVFR cigs possible. An upper level low pressure system
will then push into the region out of southwestern British
Columbia this afternoon. This will result in scattered showers and
thunderstorms primarily east and north of the KEAT TAF site. Best
chances for thunderstorms will be in the Cascade Mtns north of
Lake Chelan over into the Northern Panhandle. Thunderstorms will
develop over the Cascades early in the afternoon and then spread
eastward through the day into the overnight hours. There is
moderate confidence that at least isolated thunderstorms will
impact the KMWH, KGEG, KSFF and KCOE TAF sites. Confidence is low
that thunderstorms will impact KEAT, KPUW and KLWS TAF sites. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  54  71  51  73  52 /  10  50  60  40  50  40
Coeur d`Alene  79  53  70  49  73  50 /  10  30  60  40  50  40
Pullman        73  50  70  45  71  47 /  10  20  30  10  30  30
Lewiston       81  54  77  52  78  55 /  20  20  30  10  30  30
Colville       83  53  72  50  76  50 /  40  70  70  60  70  40
Sandpoint      79  52  70  48  71  50 /  10  50  70  60  60  50
Kellogg        78  51  71  46  72  47 /  10  30  70  50  60  50
Moses Lake     84  55  79  54  80  53 /  20  20  10  20  40  20
Wenatchee      82  55  78  56  78  58 /  20  10  20  20  50  30
Omak           83  53  76  51  78  51 /  60  60  60  50  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 241558
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
858 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s over much of the Inland Northwest. The arrival of a
cold front tonight will cool temperatures closer to average on
Memorial Day. The front will also bring an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the region. Some thunderstorms across
the northern mountains may become strong with hail and gusty
outflows winds possible. Slow moving afternoon thunderstorms
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be capable of producing
locally heavy rain. Next weekend looks to be quite warm with
summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: The most noticeable change from the previous forecast was
the inclusion of the Moses Lake area into isolated thunderstorm
chance for this afternoon as a cold front pushes through the
region. The NAM still appears to be handling this system well as
it is picking up on the showers and instability along the east
sideof the Okanogan Valley along the Canadian Border. With Cape
values in the 500 J/kg and precipitable water values of under an
inch, small hail and brief heavy rain burst could be possible with
these thunderstorms. Temperatures were adjusted slightly but still
expected to be in the low 80s to mid 70s for today. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Abundant boundary layer moisture is expected to result
in low cumulus development through the morning at the KPUW TAF
site with MVFR cigs possible. An upper level low pressure system
will then push into the region out of southwestern British
Columbia this afternoon. This will result in scattered showers and
thunderstorms primarily east and north of the KEAT TAF site. Best
chances for thunderstorms will be in the Cascade Mtns north of
Lake Chelan over into the Northern Panhandle. Thunderstorms will
develop over the Cascades early in the afternoon and then spread
eastward through the day into the overnight hours. There is
moderate confidence that at least isolated thunderstorms will
impact the KMWH, KGEG, KSFF and KCOE TAF sites. Confidence is low
that thunderstorms will impact KEAT, KPUW and KLWS TAF sites. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  54  71  51  73  52 /  10  50  60  40  50  40
Coeur d`Alene  79  53  70  49  73  50 /  10  30  60  40  50  40
Pullman        73  50  70  45  71  47 /  10  20  30  10  30  30
Lewiston       81  54  77  52  78  55 /  20  20  30  10  30  30
Colville       83  53  72  50  76  50 /  40  70  70  60  70  40
Sandpoint      79  52  70  48  71  50 /  10  50  70  60  60  50
Kellogg        78  51  71  46  72  47 /  10  30  70  50  60  50
Moses Lake     84  55  79  54  80  53 /  20  20  10  20  40  20
Wenatchee      82  55  78  56  78  58 /  20  10  20  20  50  30
Omak           83  53  76  51  78  51 /  60  60  60  50  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 241202
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
502 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s over much of the Inland Northwest. The arrival of a
cold front tonight will cool temperatures closer to average on
Memorial Day. The front will also bring an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the region. Some thunderstorms across
the northern mountains may become strong with hail and gusty
outflows winds possible. Slow moving afternoon thunderstorms
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be capable of producing
locally heavy rain. Next weekend looks to be quite warm with
summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Sunday through Monday Night: The weather over the region will be
under the influence of an upper level low pressure system
currently residing over southwest BC. This low will drop further
south today. Not much will change at the surface as much of the
region will continue to be moist at the surface. Dew point
temperatures are generally running in the 40s and low 50s across
the region. In fact, the little bit of drier air that crept its
way into the northern half of the region is already getting
supplanted by more moist air from the south. The 00Z GFS solution
seems to dry out the boundary layer too much for this afternoon.
Some moisture should mix out as the inversion breaks; otherwise, I
do not see an air mass change and I prefer the 00Z NAM depiction
of CAPE profiles across the region. The more unstable NAM has up
around 500-1000 J/KG of CAPE to tap into for this afternoon. The
mountains will see the best chances for breaking the capping
inversion with convection possible by the early afternoon hours.
This will include the Northeast Blue Mtns and the ID Panhandle.
The low tracking down out of BC will also provide some lift,
especially across the northern portion of the region. This weather
system is expected to produce more organized convection from the
east slopes of the northern Cascades over to the western basin and
into the Okanogan Highlands by the mid afternoon hours. Chances
for thunderstorms will then increase eastward across the basin,
into the Northeast Mtns by the late afternoon hours; this trend
will continue into the overnight hours where the Panhandle will
see a chance for widespread showers and a chance for thunderstorms
through the night.

There will also be some shear to work with this afternoon. Models
indicate 0-6 km unidirectional shear of up to around 30-35 kts in
the Cascades north of Lake Chelan over into the Northeast Mtns by
the evening. These northern mountain areas will see a chance for
stronger thunderstorms today. There will be the possibility for
organized convection with hail and gusty outflow winds as
potential threats. Thunderstorms will also bring the potential
for frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and heavy
downpours. The good news is that these storms should be moving at
about 20 mph to the east and northeast. This is not a fast storm
motion, but will lesson the risk for flash flooding. With that
said, there will be the potential for heavy rainfall over some of
the 2014 burn scars in the Cascades and in the Okanogan Highlands
(most notably the Carlton Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars).

Stronger storms with large hail and strong outflow winds will be
less of a concern on Monday as the upper level low shifts further
over the region. Storm motion will be a bit slower, so heavy
rainfall with flooding impacts is expected to be the primary focus.
This would include the potential for flash flooding and/or debris
flows. Thunderstorms will be possible over recent burn scars
across the east slopes of the northern Cascades and in the
Okanogan Highlands, so these areas will need to be monitored in
particular.

One more "hot" day is in store for today. High temperatures will
once again be up in the 80s for many locations. Temperatures will
cool a bit on Monday, but will only cool to right around seasonal
normals. /SVH

Tuesday through Thursday: The Cascade burn scars stand a good shot
of afternoon and evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.
The medium range models produce moderate levels of surface based
instability over the spine of the northern and central Washington
Cascades several days in a row this week. Tuesday could produce
the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the Inland
Northwest (and the Cascades) as a slow moving, vertically stacked
low sets up over the Columbia Basin. The models are in good
agreement that the low will drift into the southern Idaho
Panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday, remnants of the low
will likely be well south of our region, but residual low level
moisture combined with afternoon instability will once again
generate scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The
synoptic set up Tuesday through Thursday is not our "text book"
heavy rain pattern which features southerly flow and high
precipitable water values. However, the slow progression of the
upper low through our region combined with weak storm steering
flow and moderate instability will likely yield cells capable of
heavy rainfall. It is tough to envision big burn scars like
Carlton (Methow Valley), Mills Canyon (south of Lake Chelan), and
Chiwaukum (Hwy 2) not being tested this week. Elsewhere, the
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday don`t appear to be much
more than our typical late spring storms. Weak shear and modest
instability suggest the potential for locally heavy rain. The lack
of shear will probably limit large hail to relatively brief
pulses.

Friday and Saturday: A warm high pressure ridge is expected to
build over the western U.S. Friday into next weekend. The 850mb
temperatures progged by the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models are
in the 18-20C neighborhood by Saturday. MOS guidance from the GFS
and ECMWF looks too cool, and raw model numbers look more
realistic given the warm air aloft. It looks like upper 80s and
lower 90s by Saturday. If early week rains pan out, residual
surface moisture could contribute to a "muggy feel" at least by
our region`s standards next weekend. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Abundant boundary layer moisture is expected to result
in low cumulus development through the morning at the KPUW TAF
site with MVFR cigs possible. An upper level low pressure system
will then push into the region out of southwestern British
Columbia this afternoon. This will result in scattered showers and
thunderstorms primarily east and north of the KEAT TAF site. Best
chances for thunderstorms will be in the Cascade Mtns north of
Lake Chelan over into the Northern Panhandle. Thunderstorms will
develop over the Cascades early in the afternoon and then spread
eastward through the day into the overnight hours. There is
moderate confidence that at least isolated thunderstorms will
impact the KMWH, KGEG, KSFF and KCOE TAF sites. Confidence is low
that thunderstorms will impact KEAT, KPUW and KLWS TAF sites. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  54  71  51  73  52 /  10  50  60  40  50  40
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  70  49  73  50 /  10  30  60  40  50  40
Pullman        74  50  70  45  71  47 /  10  20  30  10  30  30
Lewiston       81  54  77  52  78  55 /  20  20  30  10  30  30
Colville       83  53  72  50  76  50 /  40  70  70  60  70  40
Sandpoint      79  52  70  48  71  50 /  10  50  70  60  60  50
Kellogg        78  51  71  46  72  47 /  10  30  70  50  60  50
Moses Lake     83  55  79  54  80  53 /  10  20  10  20  40  20
Wenatchee      82  55  78  56  78  58 /  20  10  20  20  50  30
Omak           83  53  76  51  78  51 /  60  60  60  50  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 241202
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
502 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s over much of the Inland Northwest. The arrival of a
cold front tonight will cool temperatures closer to average on
Memorial Day. The front will also bring an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the region. Some thunderstorms across
the northern mountains may become strong with hail and gusty
outflows winds possible. Slow moving afternoon thunderstorms
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be capable of producing
locally heavy rain. Next weekend looks to be quite warm with
summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Sunday through Monday Night: The weather over the region will be
under the influence of an upper level low pressure system
currently residing over southwest BC. This low will drop further
south today. Not much will change at the surface as much of the
region will continue to be moist at the surface. Dew point
temperatures are generally running in the 40s and low 50s across
the region. In fact, the little bit of drier air that crept its
way into the northern half of the region is already getting
supplanted by more moist air from the south. The 00Z GFS solution
seems to dry out the boundary layer too much for this afternoon.
Some moisture should mix out as the inversion breaks; otherwise, I
do not see an air mass change and I prefer the 00Z NAM depiction
of CAPE profiles across the region. The more unstable NAM has up
around 500-1000 J/KG of CAPE to tap into for this afternoon. The
mountains will see the best chances for breaking the capping
inversion with convection possible by the early afternoon hours.
This will include the Northeast Blue Mtns and the ID Panhandle.
The low tracking down out of BC will also provide some lift,
especially across the northern portion of the region. This weather
system is expected to produce more organized convection from the
east slopes of the northern Cascades over to the western basin and
into the Okanogan Highlands by the mid afternoon hours. Chances
for thunderstorms will then increase eastward across the basin,
into the Northeast Mtns by the late afternoon hours; this trend
will continue into the overnight hours where the Panhandle will
see a chance for widespread showers and a chance for thunderstorms
through the night.

There will also be some shear to work with this afternoon. Models
indicate 0-6 km unidirectional shear of up to around 30-35 kts in
the Cascades north of Lake Chelan over into the Northeast Mtns by
the evening. These northern mountain areas will see a chance for
stronger thunderstorms today. There will be the possibility for
organized convection with hail and gusty outflow winds as
potential threats. Thunderstorms will also bring the potential
for frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and heavy
downpours. The good news is that these storms should be moving at
about 20 mph to the east and northeast. This is not a fast storm
motion, but will lesson the risk for flash flooding. With that
said, there will be the potential for heavy rainfall over some of
the 2014 burn scars in the Cascades and in the Okanogan Highlands
(most notably the Carlton Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars).

Stronger storms with large hail and strong outflow winds will be
less of a concern on Monday as the upper level low shifts further
over the region. Storm motion will be a bit slower, so heavy
rainfall with flooding impacts is expected to be the primary focus.
This would include the potential for flash flooding and/or debris
flows. Thunderstorms will be possible over recent burn scars
across the east slopes of the northern Cascades and in the
Okanogan Highlands, so these areas will need to be monitored in
particular.

One more "hot" day is in store for today. High temperatures will
once again be up in the 80s for many locations. Temperatures will
cool a bit on Monday, but will only cool to right around seasonal
normals. /SVH

Tuesday through Thursday: The Cascade burn scars stand a good shot
of afternoon and evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.
The medium range models produce moderate levels of surface based
instability over the spine of the northern and central Washington
Cascades several days in a row this week. Tuesday could produce
the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the Inland
Northwest (and the Cascades) as a slow moving, vertically stacked
low sets up over the Columbia Basin. The models are in good
agreement that the low will drift into the southern Idaho
Panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday, remnants of the low
will likely be well south of our region, but residual low level
moisture combined with afternoon instability will once again
generate scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The
synoptic set up Tuesday through Thursday is not our "text book"
heavy rain pattern which features southerly flow and high
precipitable water values. However, the slow progression of the
upper low through our region combined with weak storm steering
flow and moderate instability will likely yield cells capable of
heavy rainfall. It is tough to envision big burn scars like
Carlton (Methow Valley), Mills Canyon (south of Lake Chelan), and
Chiwaukum (Hwy 2) not being tested this week. Elsewhere, the
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday don`t appear to be much
more than our typical late spring storms. Weak shear and modest
instability suggest the potential for locally heavy rain. The lack
of shear will probably limit large hail to relatively brief
pulses.

Friday and Saturday: A warm high pressure ridge is expected to
build over the western U.S. Friday into next weekend. The 850mb
temperatures progged by the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models are
in the 18-20C neighborhood by Saturday. MOS guidance from the GFS
and ECMWF looks too cool, and raw model numbers look more
realistic given the warm air aloft. It looks like upper 80s and
lower 90s by Saturday. If early week rains pan out, residual
surface moisture could contribute to a "muggy feel" at least by
our region`s standards next weekend. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Abundant boundary layer moisture is expected to result
in low cumulus development through the morning at the KPUW TAF
site with MVFR cigs possible. An upper level low pressure system
will then push into the region out of southwestern British
Columbia this afternoon. This will result in scattered showers and
thunderstorms primarily east and north of the KEAT TAF site. Best
chances for thunderstorms will be in the Cascade Mtns north of
Lake Chelan over into the Northern Panhandle. Thunderstorms will
develop over the Cascades early in the afternoon and then spread
eastward through the day into the overnight hours. There is
moderate confidence that at least isolated thunderstorms will
impact the KMWH, KGEG, KSFF and KCOE TAF sites. Confidence is low
that thunderstorms will impact KEAT, KPUW and KLWS TAF sites. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  54  71  51  73  52 /  10  50  60  40  50  40
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  70  49  73  50 /  10  30  60  40  50  40
Pullman        74  50  70  45  71  47 /  10  20  30  10  30  30
Lewiston       81  54  77  52  78  55 /  20  20  30  10  30  30
Colville       83  53  72  50  76  50 /  40  70  70  60  70  40
Sandpoint      79  52  70  48  71  50 /  10  50  70  60  60  50
Kellogg        78  51  71  46  72  47 /  10  30  70  50  60  50
Moses Lake     83  55  79  54  80  53 /  10  20  10  20  40  20
Wenatchee      82  55  78  56  78  58 /  20  10  20  20  50  30
Omak           83  53  76  51  78  51 /  60  60  60  50  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 241202
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
502 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s over much of the Inland Northwest. The arrival of a
cold front tonight will cool temperatures closer to average on
Memorial Day. The front will also bring an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the region. Some thunderstorms across
the northern mountains may become strong with hail and gusty
outflows winds possible. Slow moving afternoon thunderstorms
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be capable of producing
locally heavy rain. Next weekend looks to be quite warm with
summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Sunday through Monday Night: The weather over the region will be
under the influence of an upper level low pressure system
currently residing over southwest BC. This low will drop further
south today. Not much will change at the surface as much of the
region will continue to be moist at the surface. Dew point
temperatures are generally running in the 40s and low 50s across
the region. In fact, the little bit of drier air that crept its
way into the northern half of the region is already getting
supplanted by more moist air from the south. The 00Z GFS solution
seems to dry out the boundary layer too much for this afternoon.
Some moisture should mix out as the inversion breaks; otherwise, I
do not see an air mass change and I prefer the 00Z NAM depiction
of CAPE profiles across the region. The more unstable NAM has up
around 500-1000 J/KG of CAPE to tap into for this afternoon. The
mountains will see the best chances for breaking the capping
inversion with convection possible by the early afternoon hours.
This will include the Northeast Blue Mtns and the ID Panhandle.
The low tracking down out of BC will also provide some lift,
especially across the northern portion of the region. This weather
system is expected to produce more organized convection from the
east slopes of the northern Cascades over to the western basin and
into the Okanogan Highlands by the mid afternoon hours. Chances
for thunderstorms will then increase eastward across the basin,
into the Northeast Mtns by the late afternoon hours; this trend
will continue into the overnight hours where the Panhandle will
see a chance for widespread showers and a chance for thunderstorms
through the night.

There will also be some shear to work with this afternoon. Models
indicate 0-6 km unidirectional shear of up to around 30-35 kts in
the Cascades north of Lake Chelan over into the Northeast Mtns by
the evening. These northern mountain areas will see a chance for
stronger thunderstorms today. There will be the possibility for
organized convection with hail and gusty outflow winds as
potential threats. Thunderstorms will also bring the potential
for frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and heavy
downpours. The good news is that these storms should be moving at
about 20 mph to the east and northeast. This is not a fast storm
motion, but will lesson the risk for flash flooding. With that
said, there will be the potential for heavy rainfall over some of
the 2014 burn scars in the Cascades and in the Okanogan Highlands
(most notably the Carlton Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars).

Stronger storms with large hail and strong outflow winds will be
less of a concern on Monday as the upper level low shifts further
over the region. Storm motion will be a bit slower, so heavy
rainfall with flooding impacts is expected to be the primary focus.
This would include the potential for flash flooding and/or debris
flows. Thunderstorms will be possible over recent burn scars
across the east slopes of the northern Cascades and in the
Okanogan Highlands, so these areas will need to be monitored in
particular.

One more "hot" day is in store for today. High temperatures will
once again be up in the 80s for many locations. Temperatures will
cool a bit on Monday, but will only cool to right around seasonal
normals. /SVH

Tuesday through Thursday: The Cascade burn scars stand a good shot
of afternoon and evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.
The medium range models produce moderate levels of surface based
instability over the spine of the northern and central Washington
Cascades several days in a row this week. Tuesday could produce
the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the Inland
Northwest (and the Cascades) as a slow moving, vertically stacked
low sets up over the Columbia Basin. The models are in good
agreement that the low will drift into the southern Idaho
Panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday, remnants of the low
will likely be well south of our region, but residual low level
moisture combined with afternoon instability will once again
generate scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The
synoptic set up Tuesday through Thursday is not our "text book"
heavy rain pattern which features southerly flow and high
precipitable water values. However, the slow progression of the
upper low through our region combined with weak storm steering
flow and moderate instability will likely yield cells capable of
heavy rainfall. It is tough to envision big burn scars like
Carlton (Methow Valley), Mills Canyon (south of Lake Chelan), and
Chiwaukum (Hwy 2) not being tested this week. Elsewhere, the
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday don`t appear to be much
more than our typical late spring storms. Weak shear and modest
instability suggest the potential for locally heavy rain. The lack
of shear will probably limit large hail to relatively brief
pulses.

Friday and Saturday: A warm high pressure ridge is expected to
build over the western U.S. Friday into next weekend. The 850mb
temperatures progged by the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models are
in the 18-20C neighborhood by Saturday. MOS guidance from the GFS
and ECMWF looks too cool, and raw model numbers look more
realistic given the warm air aloft. It looks like upper 80s and
lower 90s by Saturday. If early week rains pan out, residual
surface moisture could contribute to a "muggy feel" at least by
our region`s standards next weekend. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Abundant boundary layer moisture is expected to result
in low cumulus development through the morning at the KPUW TAF
site with MVFR cigs possible. An upper level low pressure system
will then push into the region out of southwestern British
Columbia this afternoon. This will result in scattered showers and
thunderstorms primarily east and north of the KEAT TAF site. Best
chances for thunderstorms will be in the Cascade Mtns north of
Lake Chelan over into the Northern Panhandle. Thunderstorms will
develop over the Cascades early in the afternoon and then spread
eastward through the day into the overnight hours. There is
moderate confidence that at least isolated thunderstorms will
impact the KMWH, KGEG, KSFF and KCOE TAF sites. Confidence is low
that thunderstorms will impact KEAT, KPUW and KLWS TAF sites. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  54  71  51  73  52 /  10  50  60  40  50  40
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  70  49  73  50 /  10  30  60  40  50  40
Pullman        74  50  70  45  71  47 /  10  20  30  10  30  30
Lewiston       81  54  77  52  78  55 /  20  20  30  10  30  30
Colville       83  53  72  50  76  50 /  40  70  70  60  70  40
Sandpoint      79  52  70  48  71  50 /  10  50  70  60  60  50
Kellogg        78  51  71  46  72  47 /  10  30  70  50  60  50
Moses Lake     83  55  79  54  80  53 /  10  20  10  20  40  20
Wenatchee      82  55  78  56  78  58 /  20  10  20  20  50  30
Omak           83  53  76  51  78  51 /  60  60  60  50  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 241202
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
502 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s over much of the Inland Northwest. The arrival of a
cold front tonight will cool temperatures closer to average on
Memorial Day. The front will also bring an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the region. Some thunderstorms across
the northern mountains may become strong with hail and gusty
outflows winds possible. Slow moving afternoon thunderstorms
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be capable of producing
locally heavy rain. Next weekend looks to be quite warm with
summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Sunday through Monday Night: The weather over the region will be
under the influence of an upper level low pressure system
currently residing over southwest BC. This low will drop further
south today. Not much will change at the surface as much of the
region will continue to be moist at the surface. Dew point
temperatures are generally running in the 40s and low 50s across
the region. In fact, the little bit of drier air that crept its
way into the northern half of the region is already getting
supplanted by more moist air from the south. The 00Z GFS solution
seems to dry out the boundary layer too much for this afternoon.
Some moisture should mix out as the inversion breaks; otherwise, I
do not see an air mass change and I prefer the 00Z NAM depiction
of CAPE profiles across the region. The more unstable NAM has up
around 500-1000 J/KG of CAPE to tap into for this afternoon. The
mountains will see the best chances for breaking the capping
inversion with convection possible by the early afternoon hours.
This will include the Northeast Blue Mtns and the ID Panhandle.
The low tracking down out of BC will also provide some lift,
especially across the northern portion of the region. This weather
system is expected to produce more organized convection from the
east slopes of the northern Cascades over to the western basin and
into the Okanogan Highlands by the mid afternoon hours. Chances
for thunderstorms will then increase eastward across the basin,
into the Northeast Mtns by the late afternoon hours; this trend
will continue into the overnight hours where the Panhandle will
see a chance for widespread showers and a chance for thunderstorms
through the night.

There will also be some shear to work with this afternoon. Models
indicate 0-6 km unidirectional shear of up to around 30-35 kts in
the Cascades north of Lake Chelan over into the Northeast Mtns by
the evening. These northern mountain areas will see a chance for
stronger thunderstorms today. There will be the possibility for
organized convection with hail and gusty outflow winds as
potential threats. Thunderstorms will also bring the potential
for frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and heavy
downpours. The good news is that these storms should be moving at
about 20 mph to the east and northeast. This is not a fast storm
motion, but will lesson the risk for flash flooding. With that
said, there will be the potential for heavy rainfall over some of
the 2014 burn scars in the Cascades and in the Okanogan Highlands
(most notably the Carlton Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars).

Stronger storms with large hail and strong outflow winds will be
less of a concern on Monday as the upper level low shifts further
over the region. Storm motion will be a bit slower, so heavy
rainfall with flooding impacts is expected to be the primary focus.
This would include the potential for flash flooding and/or debris
flows. Thunderstorms will be possible over recent burn scars
across the east slopes of the northern Cascades and in the
Okanogan Highlands, so these areas will need to be monitored in
particular.

One more "hot" day is in store for today. High temperatures will
once again be up in the 80s for many locations. Temperatures will
cool a bit on Monday, but will only cool to right around seasonal
normals. /SVH

Tuesday through Thursday: The Cascade burn scars stand a good shot
of afternoon and evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.
The medium range models produce moderate levels of surface based
instability over the spine of the northern and central Washington
Cascades several days in a row this week. Tuesday could produce
the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the Inland
Northwest (and the Cascades) as a slow moving, vertically stacked
low sets up over the Columbia Basin. The models are in good
agreement that the low will drift into the southern Idaho
Panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday, remnants of the low
will likely be well south of our region, but residual low level
moisture combined with afternoon instability will once again
generate scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The
synoptic set up Tuesday through Thursday is not our "text book"
heavy rain pattern which features southerly flow and high
precipitable water values. However, the slow progression of the
upper low through our region combined with weak storm steering
flow and moderate instability will likely yield cells capable of
heavy rainfall. It is tough to envision big burn scars like
Carlton (Methow Valley), Mills Canyon (south of Lake Chelan), and
Chiwaukum (Hwy 2) not being tested this week. Elsewhere, the
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday don`t appear to be much
more than our typical late spring storms. Weak shear and modest
instability suggest the potential for locally heavy rain. The lack
of shear will probably limit large hail to relatively brief
pulses.

Friday and Saturday: A warm high pressure ridge is expected to
build over the western U.S. Friday into next weekend. The 850mb
temperatures progged by the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models are
in the 18-20C neighborhood by Saturday. MOS guidance from the GFS
and ECMWF looks too cool, and raw model numbers look more
realistic given the warm air aloft. It looks like upper 80s and
lower 90s by Saturday. If early week rains pan out, residual
surface moisture could contribute to a "muggy feel" at least by
our region`s standards next weekend. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Abundant boundary layer moisture is expected to result
in low cumulus development through the morning at the KPUW TAF
site with MVFR cigs possible. An upper level low pressure system
will then push into the region out of southwestern British
Columbia this afternoon. This will result in scattered showers and
thunderstorms primarily east and north of the KEAT TAF site. Best
chances for thunderstorms will be in the Cascade Mtns north of
Lake Chelan over into the Northern Panhandle. Thunderstorms will
develop over the Cascades early in the afternoon and then spread
eastward through the day into the overnight hours. There is
moderate confidence that at least isolated thunderstorms will
impact the KMWH, KGEG, KSFF and KCOE TAF sites. Confidence is low
that thunderstorms will impact KEAT, KPUW and KLWS TAF sites. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  54  71  51  73  52 /  10  50  60  40  50  40
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  70  49  73  50 /  10  30  60  40  50  40
Pullman        74  50  70  45  71  47 /  10  20  30  10  30  30
Lewiston       81  54  77  52  78  55 /  20  20  30  10  30  30
Colville       83  53  72  50  76  50 /  40  70  70  60  70  40
Sandpoint      79  52  70  48  71  50 /  10  50  70  60  60  50
Kellogg        78  51  71  46  72  47 /  10  30  70  50  60  50
Moses Lake     83  55  79  54  80  53 /  10  20  10  20  40  20
Wenatchee      82  55  78  56  78  58 /  20  10  20  20  50  30
Omak           83  53  76  51  78  51 /  60  60  60  50  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSEW 241016
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
315 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY. WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW AFTER MID WEEK WILL ALLOW MORE
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND. THE AIR MASS OVER THE
CASCADES WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE LATE IN THE DAY
KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDY SKIES OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES HAVE POPPED
UP ON THE RADARS SINCE EARLY YESTERDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WERE IN
A NARROW RANGE AT 3 AM...LOWER TO MID 50S.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
KEEPING SKIES CLOUDY AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT KEEPING THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE CASCADES. WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER THE TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 DEGREES OR LESS PUTTING HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S TODAY. SOME SMALL CHANGES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
LATER TODAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES DOWN THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA BY 00Z MONDAY. THIS
WILL TURN THE FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WEST NORTHWESTERLY
WHICH WILL PUSH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE CASCADES LATER
TODAY TO THE EAST SLOPES.

UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUING TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MEMORIAL
DAY ENDING UP OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON BY MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON. THE
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS PLUS MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE CASCADES.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING KEEPING SKIES CLOUDY. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY LATER IN THE DAY ON MEMORIAL DAY. THIS SHOULD THIN
OUT THE MARINE LAYER A TOUCH SO THERE COULD BE SOME AFTERNOON
SUNBREAKS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP UP TO NEAR NORMAL ON
MEMORIAL DAY...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLING AROUND OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY WITH THE LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE WALLOWA
MOUNTAINS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. LOW STILL NOT FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO KEEP
THE THREAT OF LATE DAY CONVECTION OUT OF THE CASCADES WITH THE BEST
CHANCES NEAR THE CREST. FOR THE LOWLANDS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING
KEEPING SKIES CLOUDY. ONCE AGAIN THE MARINE LAYER THINS OUT A BIT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE SUNSHINE. HIGH IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WILL BE COMMON.

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED MODELS AGAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OFF THE COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND REMAINING OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. 500 MB
HEIGHTS RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 570 DMS WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO AROUND PLUS 15C. SURFACE GRADIENTS REMAIN ONSHORE WHICH
WILL TEMPER THE WARMING TREND SOMEWHAT BUT THE ONSHORE GRADIENTS
ALSO WEAKEN LEADING TO MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER DAYS. HIGHS WILL GET
INTO THE 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS IN THE INTERIOR ON THURSDAY AND
REMAIN IN THE 70S THROUGH SATURDAY. THE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE KEEPING THE THREAT OF LATE DAY
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW
AND DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER. AT THE SURFACE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR AFTER
MIDDAY BUT BREAKOUT IS UNLIKELY AT MOST TERMINALS.

KSEA...CEILING 1-2K FT THIS MORNING GRADUALLY LIFTING TO 3-4K
FT IN THE AFTERNOON BUT BREAKOUT IS NOT EXPECTED. SW WIND 4-8 KT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS MORNING IN THE STRAIT BEFORE TEMPORARILY DIMINISHING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY EACH EVENING
IN THE STRAIT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OF BRIEF GALE STRENGTH WIND TONIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KSEW 241016
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
315 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY. WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW AFTER MID WEEK WILL ALLOW MORE
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND. THE AIR MASS OVER THE
CASCADES WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE LATE IN THE DAY
KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDY SKIES OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES HAVE POPPED
UP ON THE RADARS SINCE EARLY YESTERDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WERE IN
A NARROW RANGE AT 3 AM...LOWER TO MID 50S.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
KEEPING SKIES CLOUDY AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT KEEPING THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE CASCADES. WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER THE TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 DEGREES OR LESS PUTTING HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S TODAY. SOME SMALL CHANGES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
LATER TODAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES DOWN THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA BY 00Z MONDAY. THIS
WILL TURN THE FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WEST NORTHWESTERLY
WHICH WILL PUSH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE CASCADES LATER
TODAY TO THE EAST SLOPES.

UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUING TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MEMORIAL
DAY ENDING UP OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON BY MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON. THE
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS PLUS MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE CASCADES.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING KEEPING SKIES CLOUDY. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY LATER IN THE DAY ON MEMORIAL DAY. THIS SHOULD THIN
OUT THE MARINE LAYER A TOUCH SO THERE COULD BE SOME AFTERNOON
SUNBREAKS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP UP TO NEAR NORMAL ON
MEMORIAL DAY...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLING AROUND OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY WITH THE LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE WALLOWA
MOUNTAINS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. LOW STILL NOT FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO KEEP
THE THREAT OF LATE DAY CONVECTION OUT OF THE CASCADES WITH THE BEST
CHANCES NEAR THE CREST. FOR THE LOWLANDS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING
KEEPING SKIES CLOUDY. ONCE AGAIN THE MARINE LAYER THINS OUT A BIT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE SUNSHINE. HIGH IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WILL BE COMMON.

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED MODELS AGAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OFF THE COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND REMAINING OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. 500 MB
HEIGHTS RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 570 DMS WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO AROUND PLUS 15C. SURFACE GRADIENTS REMAIN ONSHORE WHICH
WILL TEMPER THE WARMING TREND SOMEWHAT BUT THE ONSHORE GRADIENTS
ALSO WEAKEN LEADING TO MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER DAYS. HIGHS WILL GET
INTO THE 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS IN THE INTERIOR ON THURSDAY AND
REMAIN IN THE 70S THROUGH SATURDAY. THE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE KEEPING THE THREAT OF LATE DAY
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW
AND DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER. AT THE SURFACE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR AFTER
MIDDAY BUT BREAKOUT IS UNLIKELY AT MOST TERMINALS.

KSEA...CEILING 1-2K FT THIS MORNING GRADUALLY LIFTING TO 3-4K
FT IN THE AFTERNOON BUT BREAKOUT IS NOT EXPECTED. SW WIND 4-8 KT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS MORNING IN THE STRAIT BEFORE TEMPORARILY DIMINISHING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY EACH EVENING
IN THE STRAIT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OF BRIEF GALE STRENGTH WIND TONIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KOTX 241007
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
307 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s over much of the Inland Northwest. The arrival of a
cold front tonight will cool temperatures closer to average on
Memorial Day. The front will also bring an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the region. Some thunderstorms across
the northern mountains may become strong with hail and gusty
outflows winds possible. Slow moving afternoon thunderstorms
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be capable of producing
locally heavy rain. Next weekend looks to be quite warm with
summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Sunday through Monday Night: The weather over the region will be
under the influence of an upper level low pressure system
currently residing over southwest BC. This low will drop further
south today. Not much will change at the surface as much of the
region will continue to be moist at the surface. Dew point
temperatures are generally running in the 40s and low 50s across
the region. In fact, the little bit of drier air that crept its
way into the northern half of the region is already getting
supplanted by more moist air from the south. The 00Z GFS solution
seems to dry out the boundary layer too much for this afternoon.
Some moisture should mix out as the inversion breaks; otherwise, I
do not see an air mass change and I prefer the 00Z NAM depiction
of CAPE profiles across the region. The more unstable NAM has up
around 500-1000 J/KG of CAPE to tap into for this afternoon. The
mountains will see the best chances for breaking the capping
inversion with convection possible by the early afternoon hours.
This will include the Northeast Blue Mtns and the ID Panhandle.
The low tracking down out of BC will also provide some lift,
especially across the northern portion of the region. This weather
system is expected to produce more organized convection from the
east slopes of the northern Cascades over to the western basin and
into the Okanogan Highlands by the mid afternoon hours. Chances
for thunderstorms will then increase eastward across the basin,
into the Northeast Mtns by the late afternoon hours; this trend
will continue into the overnight hours where the Panhandle will
see a chance for widespread showers and a chance for thunderstorms
through the night.

There will also be some shear to work with this afternoon. Models
indicate 0-6 km unidirectional shear of up to around 30-35 kts in
the Cascades north of Lake Chelan over into the Northeast Mtns by
the evening. These northern mountain areas will see a chance for
stronger thunderstorms today. There will be the possibility for
organized convection with hail and gusty outflow winds as
potential threats. Thunderstorms will also bring the potential
for frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and heavy
downpours. The good news is that these storms should be moving at
about 20 mph to the east and northeast. This is not a fast storm
motion, but will lesson the risk for flash flooding. With that
said, there will be the potential for heavy rainfall over some of
the 2014 burn scars in the Cascades and in the Okanogan Highlands
(most notably the Carlton Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars).

Stronger storms with large hail and strong outflow winds will be
less of a concern on Monday as the upper level low shifts further
over the region. Storm motion will be a bit slower, so heavy
rainfall with flooding impacts is expected to be the primary focus.
This would include the potential for flash flooding and/or debris
flows. Thunderstorms will be possible over recent burn scars
across the east slopes of the northern Cascades and in the
Okanogan Highlands, so these areas will need to be monitored in
particular.

One more "hot" day is in store for today. High temperatures will
once again be up in the 80s for many locations. Temperatures will
cool a bit on Monday, but will only cool to right around seasonal
normals. /SVH

Tuesday through Thursday: The Cascade burn scars stand a good shot
of afternoon and evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.
The medium range models produce moderate levels of surface based
instability over the spine of the northern and central Washington
Cascades several days in a row this week. Tuesday could produce
the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the Inland
Northwest (and the Cascades) as a slow moving, vertically stacked
low sets up over the Columbia Basin. The models are in good
agreement that the low will drift into the southern Idaho
Panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday, remnants of the low
will likely be well south of our region, but residual low level
moisture combined with afternoon instability will once again
generate scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The
synoptic set up Tuesday through Thursday is not our "text book"
heavy rain pattern which features southerly flow and high
precipitable water values. However, the slow progression of the
upper low through our region combined with weak storm steering
flow and moderate instability will likely yield cells capable of
heavy rainfall. It is tough to envision big burn scars like
Carlton (Methow Valley), Mills Canyon (south of Lake Chelan), and
Chiwaukum (Hwy 2) not being tested this week. Elsewhere, the
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday don`t appear to be much
more than our typical late spring storms. Weak shear and modest
instability suggest the potential for locally heavy rain. The lack
of shear will probably limit large hail to relatively brief
pulses.

Friday and Saturday: A warm high pressure ridge is expected to
build over the western U.S. Friday into next weekend. The 850mb
temperatures progged by the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models are
in the 18-20C neighborhood by Saturday. MOS guidance from the GFS
and ECMWF looks too cool, and raw model numbers look more
realistic given the warm air aloft. It looks like upper 80s and
lower 90s by Saturday. If early week rains pan out, residual
surface moisture could contribute to a "muggy feel" at least by
our region`s standards next weekend. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Cluster of thunderstorms working their way through KPUW
have some dynamic forcing keeping them going this evening so
expectation is they will continue to make a slow passage to the
southwest at about 10 to 15 mph and produce occasional
lightning...small hail...and brief heavy downpours. They may be
out of the aviation area as early as 12Z but may take as long as
18Z to totally move out. Brief break in the convection at around
15Z Sunday but by 22Z a low pressure area moving down through
British Columbia acts as a kicker and allows for more showers and
thunderstorms as early as 22Z near the Cascades that spread to the
south and east on through the remainder of Sunday evening.
/Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  54  71  51  73  52 /  10  50  60  40  50  40
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  70  49  73  50 /  10  30  60  40  50  40
Pullman        74  50  70  45  71  47 /  10  20  30  10  30  30
Lewiston       81  54  77  52  78  55 /  20  20  30  10  30  30
Colville       83  53  72  50  76  50 /  40  70  70  60  70  40
Sandpoint      79  52  70  48  71  50 /  10  50  70  60  60  50
Kellogg        78  51  71  46  72  47 /  10  30  70  50  60  50
Moses Lake     83  55  79  54  80  53 /  10  20  10  20  40  20
Wenatchee      82  55  78  56  78  58 /  20  10  20  20  50  30
Omak           83  53  76  51  78  51 /  60  60  60  50  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 241007
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
307 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s over much of the Inland Northwest. The arrival of a
cold front tonight will cool temperatures closer to average on
Memorial Day. The front will also bring an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the region. Some thunderstorms across
the northern mountains may become strong with hail and gusty
outflows winds possible. Slow moving afternoon thunderstorms
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be capable of producing
locally heavy rain. Next weekend looks to be quite warm with
summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Sunday through Monday Night: The weather over the region will be
under the influence of an upper level low pressure system
currently residing over southwest BC. This low will drop further
south today. Not much will change at the surface as much of the
region will continue to be moist at the surface. Dew point
temperatures are generally running in the 40s and low 50s across
the region. In fact, the little bit of drier air that crept its
way into the northern half of the region is already getting
supplanted by more moist air from the south. The 00Z GFS solution
seems to dry out the boundary layer too much for this afternoon.
Some moisture should mix out as the inversion breaks; otherwise, I
do not see an air mass change and I prefer the 00Z NAM depiction
of CAPE profiles across the region. The more unstable NAM has up
around 500-1000 J/KG of CAPE to tap into for this afternoon. The
mountains will see the best chances for breaking the capping
inversion with convection possible by the early afternoon hours.
This will include the Northeast Blue Mtns and the ID Panhandle.
The low tracking down out of BC will also provide some lift,
especially across the northern portion of the region. This weather
system is expected to produce more organized convection from the
east slopes of the northern Cascades over to the western basin and
into the Okanogan Highlands by the mid afternoon hours. Chances
for thunderstorms will then increase eastward across the basin,
into the Northeast Mtns by the late afternoon hours; this trend
will continue into the overnight hours where the Panhandle will
see a chance for widespread showers and a chance for thunderstorms
through the night.

There will also be some shear to work with this afternoon. Models
indicate 0-6 km unidirectional shear of up to around 30-35 kts in
the Cascades north of Lake Chelan over into the Northeast Mtns by
the evening. These northern mountain areas will see a chance for
stronger thunderstorms today. There will be the possibility for
organized convection with hail and gusty outflow winds as
potential threats. Thunderstorms will also bring the potential
for frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and heavy
downpours. The good news is that these storms should be moving at
about 20 mph to the east and northeast. This is not a fast storm
motion, but will lesson the risk for flash flooding. With that
said, there will be the potential for heavy rainfall over some of
the 2014 burn scars in the Cascades and in the Okanogan Highlands
(most notably the Carlton Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars).

Stronger storms with large hail and strong outflow winds will be
less of a concern on Monday as the upper level low shifts further
over the region. Storm motion will be a bit slower, so heavy
rainfall with flooding impacts is expected to be the primary focus.
This would include the potential for flash flooding and/or debris
flows. Thunderstorms will be possible over recent burn scars
across the east slopes of the northern Cascades and in the
Okanogan Highlands, so these areas will need to be monitored in
particular.

One more "hot" day is in store for today. High temperatures will
once again be up in the 80s for many locations. Temperatures will
cool a bit on Monday, but will only cool to right around seasonal
normals. /SVH

Tuesday through Thursday: The Cascade burn scars stand a good shot
of afternoon and evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.
The medium range models produce moderate levels of surface based
instability over the spine of the northern and central Washington
Cascades several days in a row this week. Tuesday could produce
the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the Inland
Northwest (and the Cascades) as a slow moving, vertically stacked
low sets up over the Columbia Basin. The models are in good
agreement that the low will drift into the southern Idaho
Panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday, remnants of the low
will likely be well south of our region, but residual low level
moisture combined with afternoon instability will once again
generate scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The
synoptic set up Tuesday through Thursday is not our "text book"
heavy rain pattern which features southerly flow and high
precipitable water values. However, the slow progression of the
upper low through our region combined with weak storm steering
flow and moderate instability will likely yield cells capable of
heavy rainfall. It is tough to envision big burn scars like
Carlton (Methow Valley), Mills Canyon (south of Lake Chelan), and
Chiwaukum (Hwy 2) not being tested this week. Elsewhere, the
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday don`t appear to be much
more than our typical late spring storms. Weak shear and modest
instability suggest the potential for locally heavy rain. The lack
of shear will probably limit large hail to relatively brief
pulses.

Friday and Saturday: A warm high pressure ridge is expected to
build over the western U.S. Friday into next weekend. The 850mb
temperatures progged by the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models are
in the 18-20C neighborhood by Saturday. MOS guidance from the GFS
and ECMWF looks too cool, and raw model numbers look more
realistic given the warm air aloft. It looks like upper 80s and
lower 90s by Saturday. If early week rains pan out, residual
surface moisture could contribute to a "muggy feel" at least by
our region`s standards next weekend. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Cluster of thunderstorms working their way through KPUW
have some dynamic forcing keeping them going this evening so
expectation is they will continue to make a slow passage to the
southwest at about 10 to 15 mph and produce occasional
lightning...small hail...and brief heavy downpours. They may be
out of the aviation area as early as 12Z but may take as long as
18Z to totally move out. Brief break in the convection at around
15Z Sunday but by 22Z a low pressure area moving down through
British Columbia acts as a kicker and allows for more showers and
thunderstorms as early as 22Z near the Cascades that spread to the
south and east on through the remainder of Sunday evening.
/Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  54  71  51  73  52 /  10  50  60  40  50  40
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  70  49  73  50 /  10  30  60  40  50  40
Pullman        74  50  70  45  71  47 /  10  20  30  10  30  30
Lewiston       81  54  77  52  78  55 /  20  20  30  10  30  30
Colville       83  53  72  50  76  50 /  40  70  70  60  70  40
Sandpoint      79  52  70  48  71  50 /  10  50  70  60  60  50
Kellogg        78  51  71  46  72  47 /  10  30  70  50  60  50
Moses Lake     83  55  79  54  80  53 /  10  20  10  20  40  20
Wenatchee      82  55  78  56  78  58 /  20  10  20  20  50  30
Omak           83  53  76  51  78  51 /  60  60  60  50  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 241007
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
307 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s over much of the Inland Northwest. The arrival of a
cold front tonight will cool temperatures closer to average on
Memorial Day. The front will also bring an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the region. Some thunderstorms across
the northern mountains may become strong with hail and gusty
outflows winds possible. Slow moving afternoon thunderstorms
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be capable of producing
locally heavy rain. Next weekend looks to be quite warm with
summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Sunday through Monday Night: The weather over the region will be
under the influence of an upper level low pressure system
currently residing over southwest BC. This low will drop further
south today. Not much will change at the surface as much of the
region will continue to be moist at the surface. Dew point
temperatures are generally running in the 40s and low 50s across
the region. In fact, the little bit of drier air that crept its
way into the northern half of the region is already getting
supplanted by more moist air from the south. The 00Z GFS solution
seems to dry out the boundary layer too much for this afternoon.
Some moisture should mix out as the inversion breaks; otherwise, I
do not see an air mass change and I prefer the 00Z NAM depiction
of CAPE profiles across the region. The more unstable NAM has up
around 500-1000 J/KG of CAPE to tap into for this afternoon. The
mountains will see the best chances for breaking the capping
inversion with convection possible by the early afternoon hours.
This will include the Northeast Blue Mtns and the ID Panhandle.
The low tracking down out of BC will also provide some lift,
especially across the northern portion of the region. This weather
system is expected to produce more organized convection from the
east slopes of the northern Cascades over to the western basin and
into the Okanogan Highlands by the mid afternoon hours. Chances
for thunderstorms will then increase eastward across the basin,
into the Northeast Mtns by the late afternoon hours; this trend
will continue into the overnight hours where the Panhandle will
see a chance for widespread showers and a chance for thunderstorms
through the night.

There will also be some shear to work with this afternoon. Models
indicate 0-6 km unidirectional shear of up to around 30-35 kts in
the Cascades north of Lake Chelan over into the Northeast Mtns by
the evening. These northern mountain areas will see a chance for
stronger thunderstorms today. There will be the possibility for
organized convection with hail and gusty outflow winds as
potential threats. Thunderstorms will also bring the potential
for frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and heavy
downpours. The good news is that these storms should be moving at
about 20 mph to the east and northeast. This is not a fast storm
motion, but will lesson the risk for flash flooding. With that
said, there will be the potential for heavy rainfall over some of
the 2014 burn scars in the Cascades and in the Okanogan Highlands
(most notably the Carlton Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars).

Stronger storms with large hail and strong outflow winds will be
less of a concern on Monday as the upper level low shifts further
over the region. Storm motion will be a bit slower, so heavy
rainfall with flooding impacts is expected to be the primary focus.
This would include the potential for flash flooding and/or debris
flows. Thunderstorms will be possible over recent burn scars
across the east slopes of the northern Cascades and in the
Okanogan Highlands, so these areas will need to be monitored in
particular.

One more "hot" day is in store for today. High temperatures will
once again be up in the 80s for many locations. Temperatures will
cool a bit on Monday, but will only cool to right around seasonal
normals. /SVH

Tuesday through Thursday: The Cascade burn scars stand a good shot
of afternoon and evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.
The medium range models produce moderate levels of surface based
instability over the spine of the northern and central Washington
Cascades several days in a row this week. Tuesday could produce
the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the Inland
Northwest (and the Cascades) as a slow moving, vertically stacked
low sets up over the Columbia Basin. The models are in good
agreement that the low will drift into the southern Idaho
Panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday, remnants of the low
will likely be well south of our region, but residual low level
moisture combined with afternoon instability will once again
generate scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The
synoptic set up Tuesday through Thursday is not our "text book"
heavy rain pattern which features southerly flow and high
precipitable water values. However, the slow progression of the
upper low through our region combined with weak storm steering
flow and moderate instability will likely yield cells capable of
heavy rainfall. It is tough to envision big burn scars like
Carlton (Methow Valley), Mills Canyon (south of Lake Chelan), and
Chiwaukum (Hwy 2) not being tested this week. Elsewhere, the
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday don`t appear to be much
more than our typical late spring storms. Weak shear and modest
instability suggest the potential for locally heavy rain. The lack
of shear will probably limit large hail to relatively brief
pulses.

Friday and Saturday: A warm high pressure ridge is expected to
build over the western U.S. Friday into next weekend. The 850mb
temperatures progged by the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models are
in the 18-20C neighborhood by Saturday. MOS guidance from the GFS
and ECMWF looks too cool, and raw model numbers look more
realistic given the warm air aloft. It looks like upper 80s and
lower 90s by Saturday. If early week rains pan out, residual
surface moisture could contribute to a "muggy feel" at least by
our region`s standards next weekend. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Cluster of thunderstorms working their way through KPUW
have some dynamic forcing keeping them going this evening so
expectation is they will continue to make a slow passage to the
southwest at about 10 to 15 mph and produce occasional
lightning...small hail...and brief heavy downpours. They may be
out of the aviation area as early as 12Z but may take as long as
18Z to totally move out. Brief break in the convection at around
15Z Sunday but by 22Z a low pressure area moving down through
British Columbia acts as a kicker and allows for more showers and
thunderstorms as early as 22Z near the Cascades that spread to the
south and east on through the remainder of Sunday evening.
/Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  54  71  51  73  52 /  10  50  60  40  50  40
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  70  49  73  50 /  10  30  60  40  50  40
Pullman        74  50  70  45  71  47 /  10  20  30  10  30  30
Lewiston       81  54  77  52  78  55 /  20  20  30  10  30  30
Colville       83  53  72  50  76  50 /  40  70  70  60  70  40
Sandpoint      79  52  70  48  71  50 /  10  50  70  60  60  50
Kellogg        78  51  71  46  72  47 /  10  30  70  50  60  50
Moses Lake     83  55  79  54  80  53 /  10  20  10  20  40  20
Wenatchee      82  55  78  56  78  58 /  20  10  20  20  50  30
Omak           83  53  76  51  78  51 /  60  60  60  50  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 241007
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
307 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s over much of the Inland Northwest. The arrival of a
cold front tonight will cool temperatures closer to average on
Memorial Day. The front will also bring an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the region. Some thunderstorms across
the northern mountains may become strong with hail and gusty
outflows winds possible. Slow moving afternoon thunderstorms
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be capable of producing
locally heavy rain. Next weekend looks to be quite warm with
summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Sunday through Monday Night: The weather over the region will be
under the influence of an upper level low pressure system
currently residing over southwest BC. This low will drop further
south today. Not much will change at the surface as much of the
region will continue to be moist at the surface. Dew point
temperatures are generally running in the 40s and low 50s across
the region. In fact, the little bit of drier air that crept its
way into the northern half of the region is already getting
supplanted by more moist air from the south. The 00Z GFS solution
seems to dry out the boundary layer too much for this afternoon.
Some moisture should mix out as the inversion breaks; otherwise, I
do not see an air mass change and I prefer the 00Z NAM depiction
of CAPE profiles across the region. The more unstable NAM has up
around 500-1000 J/KG of CAPE to tap into for this afternoon. The
mountains will see the best chances for breaking the capping
inversion with convection possible by the early afternoon hours.
This will include the Northeast Blue Mtns and the ID Panhandle.
The low tracking down out of BC will also provide some lift,
especially across the northern portion of the region. This weather
system is expected to produce more organized convection from the
east slopes of the northern Cascades over to the western basin and
into the Okanogan Highlands by the mid afternoon hours. Chances
for thunderstorms will then increase eastward across the basin,
into the Northeast Mtns by the late afternoon hours; this trend
will continue into the overnight hours where the Panhandle will
see a chance for widespread showers and a chance for thunderstorms
through the night.

There will also be some shear to work with this afternoon. Models
indicate 0-6 km unidirectional shear of up to around 30-35 kts in
the Cascades north of Lake Chelan over into the Northeast Mtns by
the evening. These northern mountain areas will see a chance for
stronger thunderstorms today. There will be the possibility for
organized convection with hail and gusty outflow winds as
potential threats. Thunderstorms will also bring the potential
for frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and heavy
downpours. The good news is that these storms should be moving at
about 20 mph to the east and northeast. This is not a fast storm
motion, but will lesson the risk for flash flooding. With that
said, there will be the potential for heavy rainfall over some of
the 2014 burn scars in the Cascades and in the Okanogan Highlands
(most notably the Carlton Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars).

Stronger storms with large hail and strong outflow winds will be
less of a concern on Monday as the upper level low shifts further
over the region. Storm motion will be a bit slower, so heavy
rainfall with flooding impacts is expected to be the primary focus.
This would include the potential for flash flooding and/or debris
flows. Thunderstorms will be possible over recent burn scars
across the east slopes of the northern Cascades and in the
Okanogan Highlands, so these areas will need to be monitored in
particular.

One more "hot" day is in store for today. High temperatures will
once again be up in the 80s for many locations. Temperatures will
cool a bit on Monday, but will only cool to right around seasonal
normals. /SVH

Tuesday through Thursday: The Cascade burn scars stand a good shot
of afternoon and evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.
The medium range models produce moderate levels of surface based
instability over the spine of the northern and central Washington
Cascades several days in a row this week. Tuesday could produce
the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the Inland
Northwest (and the Cascades) as a slow moving, vertically stacked
low sets up over the Columbia Basin. The models are in good
agreement that the low will drift into the southern Idaho
Panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday, remnants of the low
will likely be well south of our region, but residual low level
moisture combined with afternoon instability will once again
generate scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The
synoptic set up Tuesday through Thursday is not our "text book"
heavy rain pattern which features southerly flow and high
precipitable water values. However, the slow progression of the
upper low through our region combined with weak storm steering
flow and moderate instability will likely yield cells capable of
heavy rainfall. It is tough to envision big burn scars like
Carlton (Methow Valley), Mills Canyon (south of Lake Chelan), and
Chiwaukum (Hwy 2) not being tested this week. Elsewhere, the
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday don`t appear to be much
more than our typical late spring storms. Weak shear and modest
instability suggest the potential for locally heavy rain. The lack
of shear will probably limit large hail to relatively brief
pulses.

Friday and Saturday: A warm high pressure ridge is expected to
build over the western U.S. Friday into next weekend. The 850mb
temperatures progged by the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models are
in the 18-20C neighborhood by Saturday. MOS guidance from the GFS
and ECMWF looks too cool, and raw model numbers look more
realistic given the warm air aloft. It looks like upper 80s and
lower 90s by Saturday. If early week rains pan out, residual
surface moisture could contribute to a "muggy feel" at least by
our region`s standards next weekend. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Cluster of thunderstorms working their way through KPUW
have some dynamic forcing keeping them going this evening so
expectation is they will continue to make a slow passage to the
southwest at about 10 to 15 mph and produce occasional
lightning...small hail...and brief heavy downpours. They may be
out of the aviation area as early as 12Z but may take as long as
18Z to totally move out. Brief break in the convection at around
15Z Sunday but by 22Z a low pressure area moving down through
British Columbia acts as a kicker and allows for more showers and
thunderstorms as early as 22Z near the Cascades that spread to the
south and east on through the remainder of Sunday evening.
/Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  54  71  51  73  52 /  10  50  60  40  50  40
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  70  49  73  50 /  10  30  60  40  50  40
Pullman        74  50  70  45  71  47 /  10  20  30  10  30  30
Lewiston       81  54  77  52  78  55 /  20  20  30  10  30  30
Colville       83  53  72  50  76  50 /  40  70  70  60  70  40
Sandpoint      79  52  70  48  71  50 /  10  50  70  60  60  50
Kellogg        78  51  71  46  72  47 /  10  30  70  50  60  50
Moses Lake     83  55  79  54  80  53 /  10  20  10  20  40  20
Wenatchee      82  55  78  56  78  58 /  20  10  20  20  50  30
Omak           83  53  76  51  78  51 /  60  60  60  50  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 241007
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
307 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s over much of the Inland Northwest. The arrival of a
cold front tonight will cool temperatures closer to average on
Memorial Day. The front will also bring an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the region. Some thunderstorms across
the northern mountains may become strong with hail and gusty
outflows winds possible. Slow moving afternoon thunderstorms
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be capable of producing
locally heavy rain. Next weekend looks to be quite warm with
summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Sunday through Monday Night: The weather over the region will be
under the influence of an upper level low pressure system
currently residing over southwest BC. This low will drop further
south today. Not much will change at the surface as much of the
region will continue to be moist at the surface. Dew point
temperatures are generally running in the 40s and low 50s across
the region. In fact, the little bit of drier air that crept its
way into the northern half of the region is already getting
supplanted by more moist air from the south. The 00Z GFS solution
seems to dry out the boundary layer too much for this afternoon.
Some moisture should mix out as the inversion breaks; otherwise, I
do not see an air mass change and I prefer the 00Z NAM depiction
of CAPE profiles across the region. The more unstable NAM has up
around 500-1000 J/KG of CAPE to tap into for this afternoon. The
mountains will see the best chances for breaking the capping
inversion with convection possible by the early afternoon hours.
This will include the Northeast Blue Mtns and the ID Panhandle.
The low tracking down out of BC will also provide some lift,
especially across the northern portion of the region. This weather
system is expected to produce more organized convection from the
east slopes of the northern Cascades over to the western basin and
into the Okanogan Highlands by the mid afternoon hours. Chances
for thunderstorms will then increase eastward across the basin,
into the Northeast Mtns by the late afternoon hours; this trend
will continue into the overnight hours where the Panhandle will
see a chance for widespread showers and a chance for thunderstorms
through the night.

There will also be some shear to work with this afternoon. Models
indicate 0-6 km unidirectional shear of up to around 30-35 kts in
the Cascades north of Lake Chelan over into the Northeast Mtns by
the evening. These northern mountain areas will see a chance for
stronger thunderstorms today. There will be the possibility for
organized convection with hail and gusty outflow winds as
potential threats. Thunderstorms will also bring the potential
for frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and heavy
downpours. The good news is that these storms should be moving at
about 20 mph to the east and northeast. This is not a fast storm
motion, but will lesson the risk for flash flooding. With that
said, there will be the potential for heavy rainfall over some of
the 2014 burn scars in the Cascades and in the Okanogan Highlands
(most notably the Carlton Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars).

Stronger storms with large hail and strong outflow winds will be
less of a concern on Monday as the upper level low shifts further
over the region. Storm motion will be a bit slower, so heavy
rainfall with flooding impacts is expected to be the primary focus.
This would include the potential for flash flooding and/or debris
flows. Thunderstorms will be possible over recent burn scars
across the east slopes of the northern Cascades and in the
Okanogan Highlands, so these areas will need to be monitored in
particular.

One more "hot" day is in store for today. High temperatures will
once again be up in the 80s for many locations. Temperatures will
cool a bit on Monday, but will only cool to right around seasonal
normals. /SVH

Tuesday through Thursday: The Cascade burn scars stand a good shot
of afternoon and evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.
The medium range models produce moderate levels of surface based
instability over the spine of the northern and central Washington
Cascades several days in a row this week. Tuesday could produce
the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the Inland
Northwest (and the Cascades) as a slow moving, vertically stacked
low sets up over the Columbia Basin. The models are in good
agreement that the low will drift into the southern Idaho
Panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday, remnants of the low
will likely be well south of our region, but residual low level
moisture combined with afternoon instability will once again
generate scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The
synoptic set up Tuesday through Thursday is not our "text book"
heavy rain pattern which features southerly flow and high
precipitable water values. However, the slow progression of the
upper low through our region combined with weak storm steering
flow and moderate instability will likely yield cells capable of
heavy rainfall. It is tough to envision big burn scars like
Carlton (Methow Valley), Mills Canyon (south of Lake Chelan), and
Chiwaukum (Hwy 2) not being tested this week. Elsewhere, the
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday don`t appear to be much
more than our typical late spring storms. Weak shear and modest
instability suggest the potential for locally heavy rain. The lack
of shear will probably limit large hail to relatively brief
pulses.

Friday and Saturday: A warm high pressure ridge is expected to
build over the western U.S. Friday into next weekend. The 850mb
temperatures progged by the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models are
in the 18-20C neighborhood by Saturday. MOS guidance from the GFS
and ECMWF looks too cool, and raw model numbers look more
realistic given the warm air aloft. It looks like upper 80s and
lower 90s by Saturday. If early week rains pan out, residual
surface moisture could contribute to a "muggy feel" at least by
our region`s standards next weekend. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Cluster of thunderstorms working their way through KPUW
have some dynamic forcing keeping them going this evening so
expectation is they will continue to make a slow passage to the
southwest at about 10 to 15 mph and produce occasional
lightning...small hail...and brief heavy downpours. They may be
out of the aviation area as early as 12Z but may take as long as
18Z to totally move out. Brief break in the convection at around
15Z Sunday but by 22Z a low pressure area moving down through
British Columbia acts as a kicker and allows for more showers and
thunderstorms as early as 22Z near the Cascades that spread to the
south and east on through the remainder of Sunday evening.
/Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  54  71  51  73  52 /  10  50  60  40  50  40
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  70  49  73  50 /  10  30  60  40  50  40
Pullman        74  50  70  45  71  47 /  10  20  30  10  30  30
Lewiston       81  54  77  52  78  55 /  20  20  30  10  30  30
Colville       83  53  72  50  76  50 /  40  70  70  60  70  40
Sandpoint      79  52  70  48  71  50 /  10  50  70  60  60  50
Kellogg        78  51  71  46  72  47 /  10  30  70  50  60  50
Moses Lake     83  55  79  54  80  53 /  10  20  10  20  40  20
Wenatchee      82  55  78  56  78  58 /  20  10  20  20  50  30
Omak           83  53  76  51  78  51 /  60  60  60  50  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 241007
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
307 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s over much of the Inland Northwest. The arrival of a
cold front tonight will cool temperatures closer to average on
Memorial Day. The front will also bring an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the region. Some thunderstorms across
the northern mountains may become strong with hail and gusty
outflows winds possible. Slow moving afternoon thunderstorms
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be capable of producing
locally heavy rain. Next weekend looks to be quite warm with
summer-like temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Sunday through Monday Night: The weather over the region will be
under the influence of an upper level low pressure system
currently residing over southwest BC. This low will drop further
south today. Not much will change at the surface as much of the
region will continue to be moist at the surface. Dew point
temperatures are generally running in the 40s and low 50s across
the region. In fact, the little bit of drier air that crept its
way into the northern half of the region is already getting
supplanted by more moist air from the south. The 00Z GFS solution
seems to dry out the boundary layer too much for this afternoon.
Some moisture should mix out as the inversion breaks; otherwise, I
do not see an air mass change and I prefer the 00Z NAM depiction
of CAPE profiles across the region. The more unstable NAM has up
around 500-1000 J/KG of CAPE to tap into for this afternoon. The
mountains will see the best chances for breaking the capping
inversion with convection possible by the early afternoon hours.
This will include the Northeast Blue Mtns and the ID Panhandle.
The low tracking down out of BC will also provide some lift,
especially across the northern portion of the region. This weather
system is expected to produce more organized convection from the
east slopes of the northern Cascades over to the western basin and
into the Okanogan Highlands by the mid afternoon hours. Chances
for thunderstorms will then increase eastward across the basin,
into the Northeast Mtns by the late afternoon hours; this trend
will continue into the overnight hours where the Panhandle will
see a chance for widespread showers and a chance for thunderstorms
through the night.

There will also be some shear to work with this afternoon. Models
indicate 0-6 km unidirectional shear of up to around 30-35 kts in
the Cascades north of Lake Chelan over into the Northeast Mtns by
the evening. These northern mountain areas will see a chance for
stronger thunderstorms today. There will be the possibility for
organized convection with hail and gusty outflow winds as
potential threats. Thunderstorms will also bring the potential
for frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and heavy
downpours. The good news is that these storms should be moving at
about 20 mph to the east and northeast. This is not a fast storm
motion, but will lesson the risk for flash flooding. With that
said, there will be the potential for heavy rainfall over some of
the 2014 burn scars in the Cascades and in the Okanogan Highlands
(most notably the Carlton Complex and Devils Elbow burn scars).

Stronger storms with large hail and strong outflow winds will be
less of a concern on Monday as the upper level low shifts further
over the region. Storm motion will be a bit slower, so heavy
rainfall with flooding impacts is expected to be the primary focus.
This would include the potential for flash flooding and/or debris
flows. Thunderstorms will be possible over recent burn scars
across the east slopes of the northern Cascades and in the
Okanogan Highlands, so these areas will need to be monitored in
particular.

One more "hot" day is in store for today. High temperatures will
once again be up in the 80s for many locations. Temperatures will
cool a bit on Monday, but will only cool to right around seasonal
normals. /SVH

Tuesday through Thursday: The Cascade burn scars stand a good shot
of afternoon and evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.
The medium range models produce moderate levels of surface based
instability over the spine of the northern and central Washington
Cascades several days in a row this week. Tuesday could produce
the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the Inland
Northwest (and the Cascades) as a slow moving, vertically stacked
low sets up over the Columbia Basin. The models are in good
agreement that the low will drift into the southern Idaho
Panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday, remnants of the low
will likely be well south of our region, but residual low level
moisture combined with afternoon instability will once again
generate scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The
synoptic set up Tuesday through Thursday is not our "text book"
heavy rain pattern which features southerly flow and high
precipitable water values. However, the slow progression of the
upper low through our region combined with weak storm steering
flow and moderate instability will likely yield cells capable of
heavy rainfall. It is tough to envision big burn scars like
Carlton (Methow Valley), Mills Canyon (south of Lake Chelan), and
Chiwaukum (Hwy 2) not being tested this week. Elsewhere, the
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday don`t appear to be much
more than our typical late spring storms. Weak shear and modest
instability suggest the potential for locally heavy rain. The lack
of shear will probably limit large hail to relatively brief
pulses.

Friday and Saturday: A warm high pressure ridge is expected to
build over the western U.S. Friday into next weekend. The 850mb
temperatures progged by the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models are
in the 18-20C neighborhood by Saturday. MOS guidance from the GFS
and ECMWF looks too cool, and raw model numbers look more
realistic given the warm air aloft. It looks like upper 80s and
lower 90s by Saturday. If early week rains pan out, residual
surface moisture could contribute to a "muggy feel" at least by
our region`s standards next weekend. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Cluster of thunderstorms working their way through KPUW
have some dynamic forcing keeping them going this evening so
expectation is they will continue to make a slow passage to the
southwest at about 10 to 15 mph and produce occasional
lightning...small hail...and brief heavy downpours. They may be
out of the aviation area as early as 12Z but may take as long as
18Z to totally move out. Brief break in the convection at around
15Z Sunday but by 22Z a low pressure area moving down through
British Columbia acts as a kicker and allows for more showers and
thunderstorms as early as 22Z near the Cascades that spread to the
south and east on through the remainder of Sunday evening.
/Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  54  71  51  73  52 /  10  50  60  40  50  40
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  70  49  73  50 /  10  30  60  40  50  40
Pullman        74  50  70  45  71  47 /  10  20  30  10  30  30
Lewiston       81  54  77  52  78  55 /  20  20  30  10  30  30
Colville       83  53  72  50  76  50 /  40  70  70  60  70  40
Sandpoint      79  52  70  48  71  50 /  10  50  70  60  60  50
Kellogg        78  51  71  46  72  47 /  10  30  70  50  60  50
Moses Lake     83  55  79  54  80  53 /  10  20  10  20  40  20
Wenatchee      82  55  78  56  78  58 /  20  10  20  20  50  30
Omak           83  53  76  51  78  51 /  60  60  60  50  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KPQR 240914
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
215 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS KEEPING A MARINE AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER WESTERN WA AND OREGON.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM SOUTHERN BC ACROSS EASTERN
WA AND INTO IDAHO THROUGH WED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT WILL BUILD
OVER THE E PAC EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN SHIFT INLAND LATE IN THE
WEEK WEAKENING THE ONSHORE FLOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...MARINE AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SAT EVENING WAS
AROUND 5K FT DEEP ON 00Z SLE SOUNDING. WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN STATES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE. MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT THE TOP OF THE MARINE AIR MASS WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MAKING THE MARINE AIR
MASS PROGRESSIVELY SHALLOWER. A LOW PRES CENTER ALOFT ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BC COAST EARLY SUN MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SE
ACROSS SOUTHERN BC AND EASTERN WA TODAY THROUGH TUE. TIME HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SUGGEST SOME BREAKS MAY DEVELOP IN THE MARINE
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH
WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SATURDAYS HIGHS.
SURFACE REPORTS HAVE SHOWN A FEW LIGHT PRECIPITATION REPORTS
OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND COAST
RANGE. WITH THE MARINE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEXT FEW MORNINGS...BUT APPEARS MOST
LIKELY MON AS THE UPPER LOW SINKS DOWN INTO WA WHILE MARINE LAYER
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP. WILL ALSO KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN OVER THE
S WA CASCADES AT TIMES IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE MONDAY SYSTEM
WILL KEEP COOL CLOUDY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD STAY UP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES.  BROUGHT
TEMPS BACK DOWN SOME THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS MODELS ARE NOW
SHOWING THE REGION STAYING UNDER WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES DO
WARM SOME THU-SAT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION. A
THERMAL LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL SET UP A GOOD PATTERN FOR DRY WEATHER
FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH CLEARER SKIES IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
CASCADES. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A NEAR REPEAT OF THE LAST 24 HOURS. MARINE
LAYER WILL REMAIN IN SOME FORM FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT DO STAND
A BETTER SHOT AT NOTABLE INLAND CLOUD BREAKS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MVFR CIGS AT THE COAST FOR THE DAY
ALTHOUGH DO SEE HINTS IN MODELS AT KONP BREAKING FREE FOR A FEW
HOURS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS INLAND TO START THE DAY AND
SEEING THE DECK LIFT TO A VFR CIG SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 21-23Z. MAY
ACTUALLY GET ENOUGH MIXING TO SEE THE DECK SCATTER OUT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE FILLING BACK IN
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. WILL THEN SEE THE CIGS FALL BACK DOWN TO
MVFR AROUND 025 AGL FOR THE REST OF TOMORROW NIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS 025 THROUGH ABOUT 22Z. WILL SEE
THE DECK LIFT TO BETWEEN 035 AND 045 PERHAPS OPENING THE DOOR TO A
PERIOD OF VISUAL APPROACHES IN THE 25/00 TO 04Z TIME FRAME. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HIGH
PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRES OVER THE INLAND PAC NW FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BENIGN CONDITIONS
TO THE WATERS WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ADVISORY GUSTS ABOVE 21 KT SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH OF NEWPORT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
THAT IT WILL COME TO FRUITION. STRONGER WINDS OFF OF THE B.C.
COAST ARE PRODUCING A FRESH SWELL OUT OF THE NW AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 240914
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
215 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS KEEPING A MARINE AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER WESTERN WA AND OREGON.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM SOUTHERN BC ACROSS EASTERN
WA AND INTO IDAHO THROUGH WED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT WILL BUILD
OVER THE E PAC EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN SHIFT INLAND LATE IN THE
WEEK WEAKENING THE ONSHORE FLOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...MARINE AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SAT EVENING WAS
AROUND 5K FT DEEP ON 00Z SLE SOUNDING. WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN STATES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE. MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT THE TOP OF THE MARINE AIR MASS WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MAKING THE MARINE AIR
MASS PROGRESSIVELY SHALLOWER. A LOW PRES CENTER ALOFT ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BC COAST EARLY SUN MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SE
ACROSS SOUTHERN BC AND EASTERN WA TODAY THROUGH TUE. TIME HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SUGGEST SOME BREAKS MAY DEVELOP IN THE MARINE
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH
WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SATURDAYS HIGHS.
SURFACE REPORTS HAVE SHOWN A FEW LIGHT PRECIPITATION REPORTS
OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND COAST
RANGE. WITH THE MARINE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEXT FEW MORNINGS...BUT APPEARS MOST
LIKELY MON AS THE UPPER LOW SINKS DOWN INTO WA WHILE MARINE LAYER
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP. WILL ALSO KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN OVER THE
S WA CASCADES AT TIMES IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE MONDAY SYSTEM
WILL KEEP COOL CLOUDY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD STAY UP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES.  BROUGHT
TEMPS BACK DOWN SOME THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS MODELS ARE NOW
SHOWING THE REGION STAYING UNDER WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES DO
WARM SOME THU-SAT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION. A
THERMAL LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL SET UP A GOOD PATTERN FOR DRY WEATHER
FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH CLEARER SKIES IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
CASCADES. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A NEAR REPEAT OF THE LAST 24 HOURS. MARINE
LAYER WILL REMAIN IN SOME FORM FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT DO STAND
A BETTER SHOT AT NOTABLE INLAND CLOUD BREAKS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MVFR CIGS AT THE COAST FOR THE DAY
ALTHOUGH DO SEE HINTS IN MODELS AT KONP BREAKING FREE FOR A FEW
HOURS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS INLAND TO START THE DAY AND
SEEING THE DECK LIFT TO A VFR CIG SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 21-23Z. MAY
ACTUALLY GET ENOUGH MIXING TO SEE THE DECK SCATTER OUT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE FILLING BACK IN
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. WILL THEN SEE THE CIGS FALL BACK DOWN TO
MVFR AROUND 025 AGL FOR THE REST OF TOMORROW NIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS 025 THROUGH ABOUT 22Z. WILL SEE
THE DECK LIFT TO BETWEEN 035 AND 045 PERHAPS OPENING THE DOOR TO A
PERIOD OF VISUAL APPROACHES IN THE 25/00 TO 04Z TIME FRAME. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HIGH
PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRES OVER THE INLAND PAC NW FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BENIGN CONDITIONS
TO THE WATERS WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ADVISORY GUSTS ABOVE 21 KT SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH OF NEWPORT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
THAT IT WILL COME TO FRUITION. STRONGER WINDS OFF OF THE B.C.
COAST ARE PRODUCING A FRESH SWELL OUT OF THE NW AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 240914
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
215 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS KEEPING A MARINE AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER WESTERN WA AND OREGON.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM SOUTHERN BC ACROSS EASTERN
WA AND INTO IDAHO THROUGH WED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT WILL BUILD
OVER THE E PAC EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN SHIFT INLAND LATE IN THE
WEEK WEAKENING THE ONSHORE FLOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...MARINE AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SAT EVENING WAS
AROUND 5K FT DEEP ON 00Z SLE SOUNDING. WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN STATES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE. MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT THE TOP OF THE MARINE AIR MASS WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MAKING THE MARINE AIR
MASS PROGRESSIVELY SHALLOWER. A LOW PRES CENTER ALOFT ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BC COAST EARLY SUN MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SE
ACROSS SOUTHERN BC AND EASTERN WA TODAY THROUGH TUE. TIME HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SUGGEST SOME BREAKS MAY DEVELOP IN THE MARINE
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH
WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SATURDAYS HIGHS.
SURFACE REPORTS HAVE SHOWN A FEW LIGHT PRECIPITATION REPORTS
OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND COAST
RANGE. WITH THE MARINE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEXT FEW MORNINGS...BUT APPEARS MOST
LIKELY MON AS THE UPPER LOW SINKS DOWN INTO WA WHILE MARINE LAYER
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP. WILL ALSO KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN OVER THE
S WA CASCADES AT TIMES IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE MONDAY SYSTEM
WILL KEEP COOL CLOUDY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD STAY UP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES.  BROUGHT
TEMPS BACK DOWN SOME THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS MODELS ARE NOW
SHOWING THE REGION STAYING UNDER WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES DO
WARM SOME THU-SAT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION. A
THERMAL LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL SET UP A GOOD PATTERN FOR DRY WEATHER
FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH CLEARER SKIES IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
CASCADES. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A NEAR REPEAT OF THE LAST 24 HOURS. MARINE
LAYER WILL REMAIN IN SOME FORM FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT DO STAND
A BETTER SHOT AT NOTABLE INLAND CLOUD BREAKS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MVFR CIGS AT THE COAST FOR THE DAY
ALTHOUGH DO SEE HINTS IN MODELS AT KONP BREAKING FREE FOR A FEW
HOURS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS INLAND TO START THE DAY AND
SEEING THE DECK LIFT TO A VFR CIG SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 21-23Z. MAY
ACTUALLY GET ENOUGH MIXING TO SEE THE DECK SCATTER OUT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE FILLING BACK IN
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. WILL THEN SEE THE CIGS FALL BACK DOWN TO
MVFR AROUND 025 AGL FOR THE REST OF TOMORROW NIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS 025 THROUGH ABOUT 22Z. WILL SEE
THE DECK LIFT TO BETWEEN 035 AND 045 PERHAPS OPENING THE DOOR TO A
PERIOD OF VISUAL APPROACHES IN THE 25/00 TO 04Z TIME FRAME. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HIGH
PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRES OVER THE INLAND PAC NW FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BENIGN CONDITIONS
TO THE WATERS WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ADVISORY GUSTS ABOVE 21 KT SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH OF NEWPORT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
THAT IT WILL COME TO FRUITION. STRONGER WINDS OFF OF THE B.C.
COAST ARE PRODUCING A FRESH SWELL OUT OF THE NW AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 240914
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
215 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS KEEPING A MARINE AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER WESTERN WA AND OREGON.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM SOUTHERN BC ACROSS EASTERN
WA AND INTO IDAHO THROUGH WED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT WILL BUILD
OVER THE E PAC EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN SHIFT INLAND LATE IN THE
WEEK WEAKENING THE ONSHORE FLOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...MARINE AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SAT EVENING WAS
AROUND 5K FT DEEP ON 00Z SLE SOUNDING. WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN STATES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE. MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT THE TOP OF THE MARINE AIR MASS WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MAKING THE MARINE AIR
MASS PROGRESSIVELY SHALLOWER. A LOW PRES CENTER ALOFT ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BC COAST EARLY SUN MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SE
ACROSS SOUTHERN BC AND EASTERN WA TODAY THROUGH TUE. TIME HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SUGGEST SOME BREAKS MAY DEVELOP IN THE MARINE
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH
WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SATURDAYS HIGHS.
SURFACE REPORTS HAVE SHOWN A FEW LIGHT PRECIPITATION REPORTS
OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND COAST
RANGE. WITH THE MARINE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEXT FEW MORNINGS...BUT APPEARS MOST
LIKELY MON AS THE UPPER LOW SINKS DOWN INTO WA WHILE MARINE LAYER
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP. WILL ALSO KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN OVER THE
S WA CASCADES AT TIMES IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE MONDAY SYSTEM
WILL KEEP COOL CLOUDY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD STAY UP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES.  BROUGHT
TEMPS BACK DOWN SOME THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS MODELS ARE NOW
SHOWING THE REGION STAYING UNDER WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES DO
WARM SOME THU-SAT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION. A
THERMAL LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL SET UP A GOOD PATTERN FOR DRY WEATHER
FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH CLEARER SKIES IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
CASCADES. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A NEAR REPEAT OF THE LAST 24 HOURS. MARINE
LAYER WILL REMAIN IN SOME FORM FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT DO STAND
A BETTER SHOT AT NOTABLE INLAND CLOUD BREAKS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MVFR CIGS AT THE COAST FOR THE DAY
ALTHOUGH DO SEE HINTS IN MODELS AT KONP BREAKING FREE FOR A FEW
HOURS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS INLAND TO START THE DAY AND
SEEING THE DECK LIFT TO A VFR CIG SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 21-23Z. MAY
ACTUALLY GET ENOUGH MIXING TO SEE THE DECK SCATTER OUT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE FILLING BACK IN
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. WILL THEN SEE THE CIGS FALL BACK DOWN TO
MVFR AROUND 025 AGL FOR THE REST OF TOMORROW NIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS 025 THROUGH ABOUT 22Z. WILL SEE
THE DECK LIFT TO BETWEEN 035 AND 045 PERHAPS OPENING THE DOOR TO A
PERIOD OF VISUAL APPROACHES IN THE 25/00 TO 04Z TIME FRAME. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HIGH
PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRES OVER THE INLAND PAC NW FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BENIGN CONDITIONS
TO THE WATERS WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ADVISORY GUSTS ABOVE 21 KT SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH OF NEWPORT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
THAT IT WILL COME TO FRUITION. STRONGER WINDS OFF OF THE B.C.
COAST ARE PRODUCING A FRESH SWELL OUT OF THE NW AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 240524
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1024 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another evening update to increase pops for some locations to the
south for rest of the night as the cluster of thunderstorms
currently working their way through Pullman must have some
dynamics associated with their continuation this evening. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Cluster of thunderstorms woking their way through KPUW
have some dynamic forcing keeping them going this evening so
expectation is they will continue to make a slow passage to the
southwest at about 10 to 15 mph and produce occasional
lightning...small hail...and brief heavy downpours. They may be
out of the aviation area as early as 12Z but may take as long as
18Z to totally move out. Brief break in the convection at around
15Z Sunday but by 22Z a low pressure area moving down through
British Columbia acts as a kicker and allows for more showers and
thunderstorms as early as 22Z near the Cascades that spread to the
south and east on through the remainder of Sunday evening.
/Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  70  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  70  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 240524
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1024 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another evening update to increase pops for some locations to the
south for rest of the night as the cluster of thunderstorms
currently working their way through Pullman must have some
dynamics associated with their continuation this evening. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Cluster of thunderstorms woking their way through KPUW
have some dynamic forcing keeping them going this evening so
expectation is they will continue to make a slow passage to the
southwest at about 10 to 15 mph and produce occasional
lightning...small hail...and brief heavy downpours. They may be
out of the aviation area as early as 12Z but may take as long as
18Z to totally move out. Brief break in the convection at around
15Z Sunday but by 22Z a low pressure area moving down through
British Columbia acts as a kicker and allows for more showers and
thunderstorms as early as 22Z near the Cascades that spread to the
south and east on through the remainder of Sunday evening.
/Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  70  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  70  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 240357 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES MILD THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAKER ONSHORE
FLOW AFTER MID WEEK WILL ALLOW MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND A MINOR
WARMING TREND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE STEERING FLOW TURNED WESTERLY THIS EVENING WITH
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH CASCADES PUSHING EAST OF THE CREST. SO
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TONIGHT TO DROP THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES
FOR CLOUDY SKIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN B.C. WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE CASCADES SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY AS IT MOVES INTO WASHINGTON.
THE LOWLANDS WILL BE DRY ALTHOUGH STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY AS ONSHORE
FLOW PERSISTS. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 60S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TO THE WA/ID BORDER ON
TUE. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE MAY CLIP THE CASCADES FOR MORE SHOWERS.
HOWEVER LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE E WA UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
FINALLY MOVE E OVER ID WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO SLIDE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE APPROACH OF THE
RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO WARM...BUT THE GREATER IMPACT WILL
BE THE CHANGE TO ONSHORE FLOW. ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
WEAKEN A BIT AND WILL SHIFT TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH MAKES IT
MORE DIFFICULT TO SPREAD STRATUS ACROSS PUGET SOUND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MORE AFTERNOON CLEARING FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH MAX
TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR WARMING INTO THE 70S. THE AIR MASS OVER THE
CASCADES WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE FOR THE STANDARD AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE
ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER. AT THE SURFACE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL DECREASE TONIGHT THEN INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIR
MASS IS MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE BUT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE CASCADE CREST.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE RESULTING
IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR AFTER MIDDAY BUT BREAKOUT IS UNLIKELY AT
MOST TERMINALS.

KSEA...CEILING 2500 FT FALLING TO 1-2K FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH CEILING GRADUALLY LIFTING TO 3-4K FT IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT BREAKOUT IS NOT EXPECTED. SW WIND 4-8 KT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY EACH EVENING
IN THE STRAIT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 240357 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES MILD THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAKER ONSHORE
FLOW AFTER MID WEEK WILL ALLOW MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND A MINOR
WARMING TREND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE STEERING FLOW TURNED WESTERLY THIS EVENING WITH
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH CASCADES PUSHING EAST OF THE CREST. SO
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TONIGHT TO DROP THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES
FOR CLOUDY SKIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN B.C. WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE CASCADES SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY AS IT MOVES INTO WASHINGTON.
THE LOWLANDS WILL BE DRY ALTHOUGH STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY AS ONSHORE
FLOW PERSISTS. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 60S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TO THE WA/ID BORDER ON
TUE. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE MAY CLIP THE CASCADES FOR MORE SHOWERS.
HOWEVER LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE E WA UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
FINALLY MOVE E OVER ID WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO SLIDE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE APPROACH OF THE
RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO WARM...BUT THE GREATER IMPACT WILL
BE THE CHANGE TO ONSHORE FLOW. ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
WEAKEN A BIT AND WILL SHIFT TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH MAKES IT
MORE DIFFICULT TO SPREAD STRATUS ACROSS PUGET SOUND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MORE AFTERNOON CLEARING FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH MAX
TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR WARMING INTO THE 70S. THE AIR MASS OVER THE
CASCADES WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE FOR THE STANDARD AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE
ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER. AT THE SURFACE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL DECREASE TONIGHT THEN INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIR
MASS IS MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE BUT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE CASCADE CREST.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE RESULTING
IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR AFTER MIDDAY BUT BREAKOUT IS UNLIKELY AT
MOST TERMINALS.

KSEA...CEILING 2500 FT FALLING TO 1-2K FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH CEILING GRADUALLY LIFTING TO 3-4K FT IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT BREAKOUT IS NOT EXPECTED. SW WIND 4-8 KT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY EACH EVENING
IN THE STRAIT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 240357 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES MILD THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAKER ONSHORE
FLOW AFTER MID WEEK WILL ALLOW MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND A MINOR
WARMING TREND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE STEERING FLOW TURNED WESTERLY THIS EVENING WITH
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH CASCADES PUSHING EAST OF THE CREST. SO
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TONIGHT TO DROP THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES
FOR CLOUDY SKIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN B.C. WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE CASCADES SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY AS IT MOVES INTO WASHINGTON.
THE LOWLANDS WILL BE DRY ALTHOUGH STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY AS ONSHORE
FLOW PERSISTS. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 60S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TO THE WA/ID BORDER ON
TUE. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE MAY CLIP THE CASCADES FOR MORE SHOWERS.
HOWEVER LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE E WA UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
FINALLY MOVE E OVER ID WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO SLIDE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE APPROACH OF THE
RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO WARM...BUT THE GREATER IMPACT WILL
BE THE CHANGE TO ONSHORE FLOW. ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
WEAKEN A BIT AND WILL SHIFT TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH MAKES IT
MORE DIFFICULT TO SPREAD STRATUS ACROSS PUGET SOUND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MORE AFTERNOON CLEARING FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH MAX
TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR WARMING INTO THE 70S. THE AIR MASS OVER THE
CASCADES WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE FOR THE STANDARD AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE
ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER. AT THE SURFACE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL DECREASE TONIGHT THEN INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIR
MASS IS MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE BUT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE CASCADE CREST.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE RESULTING
IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR AFTER MIDDAY BUT BREAKOUT IS UNLIKELY AT
MOST TERMINALS.

KSEA...CEILING 2500 FT FALLING TO 1-2K FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH CEILING GRADUALLY LIFTING TO 3-4K FT IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT BREAKOUT IS NOT EXPECTED. SW WIND 4-8 KT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY EACH EVENING
IN THE STRAIT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 240357 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES MILD THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAKER ONSHORE
FLOW AFTER MID WEEK WILL ALLOW MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND A MINOR
WARMING TREND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE STEERING FLOW TURNED WESTERLY THIS EVENING WITH
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH CASCADES PUSHING EAST OF THE CREST. SO
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TONIGHT TO DROP THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES
FOR CLOUDY SKIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN B.C. WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE CASCADES SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY AS IT MOVES INTO WASHINGTON.
THE LOWLANDS WILL BE DRY ALTHOUGH STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY AS ONSHORE
FLOW PERSISTS. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 60S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TO THE WA/ID BORDER ON
TUE. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE MAY CLIP THE CASCADES FOR MORE SHOWERS.
HOWEVER LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE E WA UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
FINALLY MOVE E OVER ID WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO SLIDE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE APPROACH OF THE
RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO WARM...BUT THE GREATER IMPACT WILL
BE THE CHANGE TO ONSHORE FLOW. ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
WEAKEN A BIT AND WILL SHIFT TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH MAKES IT
MORE DIFFICULT TO SPREAD STRATUS ACROSS PUGET SOUND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MORE AFTERNOON CLEARING FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH MAX
TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR WARMING INTO THE 70S. THE AIR MASS OVER THE
CASCADES WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE FOR THE STANDARD AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE
ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER. AT THE SURFACE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL DECREASE TONIGHT THEN INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIR
MASS IS MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE BUT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE CASCADE CREST.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE RESULTING
IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR AFTER MIDDAY BUT BREAKOUT IS UNLIKELY AT
MOST TERMINALS.

KSEA...CEILING 2500 FT FALLING TO 1-2K FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH CEILING GRADUALLY LIFTING TO 3-4K FT IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT BREAKOUT IS NOT EXPECTED. SW WIND 4-8 KT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRES INLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY EACH EVENING
IN THE STRAIT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KPQR 240317
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
817 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY. THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE
CONTINUED MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER
THE AREA...AS WELL AS LOCAL DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE
LATE NIGHT AND MORNINGS. THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON LOW FROM MONDAY WILL
MOVE EAST ENOUGH AROUND THE MID WEEK PERIOD TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH WARMING TEMPS.
&&

.UPDATE...ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST THIS EVENING AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE PORTLAND
FORECAST AREA...BUT HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR SW
WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN LOOMING NEAR BY.
THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED EAST OF THE CASCADES AND ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT.

MODELS SHOW A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME CLEARING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA AND MORE NORTHERLY FLOW. THINK
STRATO CU MAY LINGER AROUND..BUT THERE WILL BE MORE POCKETS OF
SUNSHINE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NW
MONDAY AND TUES FOR MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM THAT WAS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST LAST NIGHT IS ALREADY
WELL SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM DID
REINFORCED THE ONSHORE FLOW...WHICH IS MODERATE TO STRONG AND THUS
THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO APPEAR ON SATELLITE AS THOUGH THEY WILL
HAVE TROUBLE BREAKING UP AT ALL TODAY. AS THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED SO
FAR SOUTH...THE SHOWERS FROM LAST NIGHT AND EARLY TODAY HAVE WANED
CONSIDERABLY. COULD STILL BE SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER CASCADES
LATER TODAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS A BIT DOUBTFUL. CURRENT TEMP TRENDS
SUGGEST HIGHS WILL TOP OUT MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS WEST OF THE
CASCADES BETWEEN 60 AND 65...EXCEPT 55 TO 60 AT THE COAST.

THERE IS ANOTHER LOW CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL B.C. COAST THAT IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN B.C. LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN/REINFORCE THE ONSHORE FLOW...AS WELL AS FINALLY TURN THE
WINDS ALOFT TO A MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THERE IS STILL
A RISK OF SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AROUND EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WE MAY SEE A
FEW THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES AROUND
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST ON IN THE NORTHERN INLAND AREAS INCLUDING
PORTLAND. THE POSITION OF THE LOW INLAND OVER WASHINGTON ON MONDAY
SUGGESTS THAT CLEARING OF THE MARINE CLOUDS WEST OF THE CASCADES ON
MONDAY MAY BE DIFFICULT AGAIN. HOWEVER THE INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY SUGGEST THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA EITHER.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON DRIFTS TO
NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BE STRONG...BUT IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT WE GET SOME LATE DAY SUN BREAKS THAT COULD LEAD TO
SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES WHILE ALLOWING TEMPS TO
CLIMB BACK TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
BEHIND THE MONDAY SYSTEM WILL KEEP COOL CLOUDY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY UP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CASCADES.  BROUGHT TEMPS BACK DOWN SOME THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE REGION STAYING UNDER WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES DO WARM SOME THU-SAT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
OVER THE REGION. A THERMAL LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL SET UP A GOOD
PATTERN FOR DRY WEATHER FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH CLEARER
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON...AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...A MIXTURE OF MVFR TO VFR WITH CIGS GENERALLY BETWEEN
2000-3500 FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS INLAND WILL
DETERIORATE TOWARDS PREVAILING MVFR THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z-17Z SUNDAY. EXPECT A MIXTURE OF IFR/MVFR
CIGS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR IFR CIGS AND VSBY BETWEEN 08Z-16Z SUNDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 17Z-19Z SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE BRIEF VFR CIGS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE MVFR CIGS RETURN LATE SUNDAY. /27

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRES OVER THE INLAND
PAC NW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
BENIGN CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ADVISORY GUSTS ABOVE
21 KT SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH OF NEWPORT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH THAT IT WILL COME TO FRUITION. STRONGER WINDS OFF OF THE
B.C. COAST ARE PRODUCING A FRESH SWELL OUT OF THE NW AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 240317
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
817 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY. THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE
CONTINUED MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER
THE AREA...AS WELL AS LOCAL DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE
LATE NIGHT AND MORNINGS. THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON LOW FROM MONDAY WILL
MOVE EAST ENOUGH AROUND THE MID WEEK PERIOD TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH WARMING TEMPS.
&&

.UPDATE...ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST THIS EVENING AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE PORTLAND
FORECAST AREA...BUT HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR SW
WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN LOOMING NEAR BY.
THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED EAST OF THE CASCADES AND ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT.

MODELS SHOW A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME CLEARING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA AND MORE NORTHERLY FLOW. THINK
STRATO CU MAY LINGER AROUND..BUT THERE WILL BE MORE POCKETS OF
SUNSHINE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NW
MONDAY AND TUES FOR MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM THAT WAS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST LAST NIGHT IS ALREADY
WELL SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM DID
REINFORCED THE ONSHORE FLOW...WHICH IS MODERATE TO STRONG AND THUS
THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO APPEAR ON SATELLITE AS THOUGH THEY WILL
HAVE TROUBLE BREAKING UP AT ALL TODAY. AS THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED SO
FAR SOUTH...THE SHOWERS FROM LAST NIGHT AND EARLY TODAY HAVE WANED
CONSIDERABLY. COULD STILL BE SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER CASCADES
LATER TODAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS A BIT DOUBTFUL. CURRENT TEMP TRENDS
SUGGEST HIGHS WILL TOP OUT MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS WEST OF THE
CASCADES BETWEEN 60 AND 65...EXCEPT 55 TO 60 AT THE COAST.

THERE IS ANOTHER LOW CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL B.C. COAST THAT IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN B.C. LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN/REINFORCE THE ONSHORE FLOW...AS WELL AS FINALLY TURN THE
WINDS ALOFT TO A MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THERE IS STILL
A RISK OF SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AROUND EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WE MAY SEE A
FEW THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES AROUND
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST ON IN THE NORTHERN INLAND AREAS INCLUDING
PORTLAND. THE POSITION OF THE LOW INLAND OVER WASHINGTON ON MONDAY
SUGGESTS THAT CLEARING OF THE MARINE CLOUDS WEST OF THE CASCADES ON
MONDAY MAY BE DIFFICULT AGAIN. HOWEVER THE INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY SUGGEST THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA EITHER.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON DRIFTS TO
NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BE STRONG...BUT IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT WE GET SOME LATE DAY SUN BREAKS THAT COULD LEAD TO
SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES WHILE ALLOWING TEMPS TO
CLIMB BACK TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
BEHIND THE MONDAY SYSTEM WILL KEEP COOL CLOUDY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY UP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CASCADES.  BROUGHT TEMPS BACK DOWN SOME THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE REGION STAYING UNDER WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES DO WARM SOME THU-SAT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
OVER THE REGION. A THERMAL LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL SET UP A GOOD
PATTERN FOR DRY WEATHER FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH CLEARER
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON...AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...A MIXTURE OF MVFR TO VFR WITH CIGS GENERALLY BETWEEN
2000-3500 FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS INLAND WILL
DETERIORATE TOWARDS PREVAILING MVFR THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z-17Z SUNDAY. EXPECT A MIXTURE OF IFR/MVFR
CIGS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR IFR CIGS AND VSBY BETWEEN 08Z-16Z SUNDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 17Z-19Z SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE BRIEF VFR CIGS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE MVFR CIGS RETURN LATE SUNDAY. /27

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRES OVER THE INLAND
PAC NW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
BENIGN CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ADVISORY GUSTS ABOVE
21 KT SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH OF NEWPORT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH THAT IT WILL COME TO FRUITION. STRONGER WINDS OFF OF THE
B.C. COAST ARE PRODUCING A FRESH SWELL OUT OF THE NW AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 240132
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
632 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated to increase pops to around 70 percent and mention of
numerous thunderstorms near the Lewiston area down to the Camas
Prairie for this evening based on the activity on the radar
approaching the area with a mention of small hail and gusty wind.
/Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Much less shower and thunderstorm activity in the
forecast for the next 24 hours than in comparison to yesterday.
Ongoing thunderstorms near the Cascades are slowly moving to the
southwest and will not impact TAF sites. Showers and thunderstorms moving
to the Southwest roughly near and south of a line from KMLP to
KPUW may impact KPUW and KLWS within the vicinity this afternoon
and very early this evening but should be diminish and be gone
later this evening. General low pressure will linger on tomorrow
along with a small scale synoptic scale low pressure area
dropping down through British Columbia Sunday night. All if this
will allow more surface based showers and thunderstorms in the
aviation area tomorrow. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  20  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  70  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 240132
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
632 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated to increase pops to around 70 percent and mention of
numerous thunderstorms near the Lewiston area down to the Camas
Prairie for this evening based on the activity on the radar
approaching the area with a mention of small hail and gusty wind.
/Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Much less shower and thunderstorm activity in the
forecast for the next 24 hours than in comparison to yesterday.
Ongoing thunderstorms near the Cascades are slowly moving to the
southwest and will not impact TAF sites. Showers and thunderstorms moving
to the Southwest roughly near and south of a line from KMLP to
KPUW may impact KPUW and KLWS within the vicinity this afternoon
and very early this evening but should be diminish and be gone
later this evening. General low pressure will linger on tomorrow
along with a small scale synoptic scale low pressure area
dropping down through British Columbia Sunday night. All if this
will allow more surface based showers and thunderstorms in the
aviation area tomorrow. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  20  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  70  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 240132
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
632 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated to increase pops to around 70 percent and mention of
numerous thunderstorms near the Lewiston area down to the Camas
Prairie for this evening based on the activity on the radar
approaching the area with a mention of small hail and gusty wind.
/Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Much less shower and thunderstorm activity in the
forecast for the next 24 hours than in comparison to yesterday.
Ongoing thunderstorms near the Cascades are slowly moving to the
southwest and will not impact TAF sites. Showers and thunderstorms moving
to the Southwest roughly near and south of a line from KMLP to
KPUW may impact KPUW and KLWS within the vicinity this afternoon
and very early this evening but should be diminish and be gone
later this evening. General low pressure will linger on tomorrow
along with a small scale synoptic scale low pressure area
dropping down through British Columbia Sunday night. All if this
will allow more surface based showers and thunderstorms in the
aviation area tomorrow. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  20  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  70  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 240132
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
632 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated to increase pops to around 70 percent and mention of
numerous thunderstorms near the Lewiston area down to the Camas
Prairie for this evening based on the activity on the radar
approaching the area with a mention of small hail and gusty wind.
/Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Much less shower and thunderstorm activity in the
forecast for the next 24 hours than in comparison to yesterday.
Ongoing thunderstorms near the Cascades are slowly moving to the
southwest and will not impact TAF sites. Showers and thunderstorms moving
to the Southwest roughly near and south of a line from KMLP to
KPUW may impact KPUW and KLWS within the vicinity this afternoon
and very early this evening but should be diminish and be gone
later this evening. General low pressure will linger on tomorrow
along with a small scale synoptic scale low pressure area
dropping down through British Columbia Sunday night. All if this
will allow more surface based showers and thunderstorms in the
aviation area tomorrow. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  20  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  70  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 240132
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
632 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated to increase pops to around 70 percent and mention of
numerous thunderstorms near the Lewiston area down to the Camas
Prairie for this evening based on the activity on the radar
approaching the area with a mention of small hail and gusty wind.
/Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Much less shower and thunderstorm activity in the
forecast for the next 24 hours than in comparison to yesterday.
Ongoing thunderstorms near the Cascades are slowly moving to the
southwest and will not impact TAF sites. Showers and thunderstorms moving
to the Southwest roughly near and south of a line from KMLP to
KPUW may impact KPUW and KLWS within the vicinity this afternoon
and very early this evening but should be diminish and be gone
later this evening. General low pressure will linger on tomorrow
along with a small scale synoptic scale low pressure area
dropping down through British Columbia Sunday night. All if this
will allow more surface based showers and thunderstorms in the
aviation area tomorrow. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  20  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  70  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 240132
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
632 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated to increase pops to around 70 percent and mention of
numerous thunderstorms near the Lewiston area down to the Camas
Prairie for this evening based on the activity on the radar
approaching the area with a mention of small hail and gusty wind.
/Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Much less shower and thunderstorm activity in the
forecast for the next 24 hours than in comparison to yesterday.
Ongoing thunderstorms near the Cascades are slowly moving to the
southwest and will not impact TAF sites. Showers and thunderstorms moving
to the Southwest roughly near and south of a line from KMLP to
KPUW may impact KPUW and KLWS within the vicinity this afternoon
and very early this evening but should be diminish and be gone
later this evening. General low pressure will linger on tomorrow
along with a small scale synoptic scale low pressure area
dropping down through British Columbia Sunday night. All if this
will allow more surface based showers and thunderstorms in the
aviation area tomorrow. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  20  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  70  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 232343
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
443 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday: Our next round of pcpn, diurnally driven, has
began to produce a few lightning strikes in the high Cascades near
the BC border as well as over the Camas Prairie region of Idaho. A
decent amnt of sun has contributed to higher SBCAPE this
afternoon. Though there will be a short- wave trough (currently
upstream near the BC coast) that will move south across the region
by Sunday, it looks like it won`t have a significant contribution
synoptically for the thunder threat in the Cascades tonight. This
will be an important issue this evening and Sunday given the
recent burn scar potential for debris flow. As of now, we don`t
anticipate an issues. We also left thunder in the fcst for SE WA
and the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle tonight and Sunday as the wave
approaches and the sfc remains uncapped. There`s sufficient
convective inhibition, or even lack of CAPE altogether, across NE
Wa and the N Idaho Panhandle that thunder does not look like a
significant threat. The areal coverage of thunder will be greater
Sunday versus today, and gap winds near the Cascades may become
gusty Sunday evening. bz

Sunday night through Tuesday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Early this
period (Sunday night into Monday) low pressure initially centered
near southwest BC sags south across northwest Okanogan county
toward the Kittitas Valley/lee of the Cascades. This places much
of central and eastern WA and north ID in the favorable lift on
the northeast side of the low. First between Sunday night and
Monday morning the SBCAPE wanes with the loss of heating. Yet some
elevated instability (High Level Total Totals and pockets of
elevated CAPE) migrates over the northern mountains and upper
Columbia Basin. Tack on decent moisture (PWATs around 125 to 150%
of normal) there will be a good threat for showers and even some
thunder through this period. The highest threat will be across
eastern Okanogan county through the northern ID Panhandle, but
chances will also spread across the Columbia Basin through the
central Panhandle. Slight or lower chances will be found
elsewhere.

By Monday afternoon the SBCAPE expands again and the threat of
more scattered to numerous showers/t-storms expands. Models still
place some of the higher precipitation amounts in and around the
northern WA and ID Panhandle mountains and secondarily along the
highway 2 corridor and near the Camas Prairie. For the lower
Columbia Basin into the Palouse, however, models show a dry slot
wrapping in. This should keep the threat of showers lower.

Monday night into Tuesday the center of the low swings toward
toward the WA/ID border. Similar to the trend of the 24 hours
prior, SBCAPE wanes at night but a fair amount of elevated
instability continues within the core of the low, before being
revitalized in the afternoon heating. So look for a decrease, but
not end, in the shower/t-storm coverage at night and an expansion
again through Tuesday afternoon.

In the midst of this low, shear and overall storm motion will be
light, especially away from the Cascades. Thus there will be the
potential for some slow-moving shower/t-storms and locally heavy
downpours. We will have to monitor the situation for localized
flooding concerns. A few storms may also produce some hail.

Temperatures in general are expected to cool under the low, with
highs closer to seasonal norms or a degree or two above.

Tuesday night through Saturday: models are in some agreement in
tracking the low slowly east while another trough approaches the
coast late week. This, plus minor impulses riding in on the
developing north to westerly flow behind the first low, will work
with continued afternoon instability to keep the cycle of shower
and thunderstorm chances alive. This means an increasing chance
for isolated to scattered activity each afternoon, then waning for
the night hours. On a whole, the best chances will retreat to the
mountains from day-to-day until Saturday. By then that next trough
may revitalize the shower/t-storm threat region-wide again.
Temperatures are also projected to undergo a relative warming
trend with the low moving east. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Much less shower and thunderstorm activity in the
forecast for the next 24 hours than in comparison to yesterday.
Ongoing thunderstorms near the Cascades are slowly moving to the
southwest and will not impact TAF sites. Showers and thunderstorms moving
to the Southwest roughly near and south of a line from KMLP to
KPUW may impact KPUW and KLWS within the vicinity this afternoon
and very early this evening but should be diminish and be gone
later this evening. General low pressure will linger on tomorrow
along with a small scale synoptic scale low pressure area
dropping down through British Columbia Sunday night. All if this
will allow more surface based showers and thunderstorms in the
aviation area tomorrow. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  20  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  30  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 232343
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
443 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday: Our next round of pcpn, diurnally driven, has
began to produce a few lightning strikes in the high Cascades near
the BC border as well as over the Camas Prairie region of Idaho. A
decent amnt of sun has contributed to higher SBCAPE this
afternoon. Though there will be a short- wave trough (currently
upstream near the BC coast) that will move south across the region
by Sunday, it looks like it won`t have a significant contribution
synoptically for the thunder threat in the Cascades tonight. This
will be an important issue this evening and Sunday given the
recent burn scar potential for debris flow. As of now, we don`t
anticipate an issues. We also left thunder in the fcst for SE WA
and the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle tonight and Sunday as the wave
approaches and the sfc remains uncapped. There`s sufficient
convective inhibition, or even lack of CAPE altogether, across NE
Wa and the N Idaho Panhandle that thunder does not look like a
significant threat. The areal coverage of thunder will be greater
Sunday versus today, and gap winds near the Cascades may become
gusty Sunday evening. bz

Sunday night through Tuesday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Early this
period (Sunday night into Monday) low pressure initially centered
near southwest BC sags south across northwest Okanogan county
toward the Kittitas Valley/lee of the Cascades. This places much
of central and eastern WA and north ID in the favorable lift on
the northeast side of the low. First between Sunday night and
Monday morning the SBCAPE wanes with the loss of heating. Yet some
elevated instability (High Level Total Totals and pockets of
elevated CAPE) migrates over the northern mountains and upper
Columbia Basin. Tack on decent moisture (PWATs around 125 to 150%
of normal) there will be a good threat for showers and even some
thunder through this period. The highest threat will be across
eastern Okanogan county through the northern ID Panhandle, but
chances will also spread across the Columbia Basin through the
central Panhandle. Slight or lower chances will be found
elsewhere.

By Monday afternoon the SBCAPE expands again and the threat of
more scattered to numerous showers/t-storms expands. Models still
place some of the higher precipitation amounts in and around the
northern WA and ID Panhandle mountains and secondarily along the
highway 2 corridor and near the Camas Prairie. For the lower
Columbia Basin into the Palouse, however, models show a dry slot
wrapping in. This should keep the threat of showers lower.

Monday night into Tuesday the center of the low swings toward
toward the WA/ID border. Similar to the trend of the 24 hours
prior, SBCAPE wanes at night but a fair amount of elevated
instability continues within the core of the low, before being
revitalized in the afternoon heating. So look for a decrease, but
not end, in the shower/t-storm coverage at night and an expansion
again through Tuesday afternoon.

In the midst of this low, shear and overall storm motion will be
light, especially away from the Cascades. Thus there will be the
potential for some slow-moving shower/t-storms and locally heavy
downpours. We will have to monitor the situation for localized
flooding concerns. A few storms may also produce some hail.

Temperatures in general are expected to cool under the low, with
highs closer to seasonal norms or a degree or two above.

Tuesday night through Saturday: models are in some agreement in
tracking the low slowly east while another trough approaches the
coast late week. This, plus minor impulses riding in on the
developing north to westerly flow behind the first low, will work
with continued afternoon instability to keep the cycle of shower
and thunderstorm chances alive. This means an increasing chance
for isolated to scattered activity each afternoon, then waning for
the night hours. On a whole, the best chances will retreat to the
mountains from day-to-day until Saturday. By then that next trough
may revitalize the shower/t-storm threat region-wide again.
Temperatures are also projected to undergo a relative warming
trend with the low moving east. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Much less shower and thunderstorm activity in the
forecast for the next 24 hours than in comparison to yesterday.
Ongoing thunderstorms near the Cascades are slowly moving to the
southwest and will not impact TAF sites. Showers and thunderstorms moving
to the Southwest roughly near and south of a line from KMLP to
KPUW may impact KPUW and KLWS within the vicinity this afternoon
and very early this evening but should be diminish and be gone
later this evening. General low pressure will linger on tomorrow
along with a small scale synoptic scale low pressure area
dropping down through British Columbia Sunday night. All if this
will allow more surface based showers and thunderstorms in the
aviation area tomorrow. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  20  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  30  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 232343
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
443 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday: Our next round of pcpn, diurnally driven, has
began to produce a few lightning strikes in the high Cascades near
the BC border as well as over the Camas Prairie region of Idaho. A
decent amnt of sun has contributed to higher SBCAPE this
afternoon. Though there will be a short- wave trough (currently
upstream near the BC coast) that will move south across the region
by Sunday, it looks like it won`t have a significant contribution
synoptically for the thunder threat in the Cascades tonight. This
will be an important issue this evening and Sunday given the
recent burn scar potential for debris flow. As of now, we don`t
anticipate an issues. We also left thunder in the fcst for SE WA
and the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle tonight and Sunday as the wave
approaches and the sfc remains uncapped. There`s sufficient
convective inhibition, or even lack of CAPE altogether, across NE
Wa and the N Idaho Panhandle that thunder does not look like a
significant threat. The areal coverage of thunder will be greater
Sunday versus today, and gap winds near the Cascades may become
gusty Sunday evening. bz

Sunday night through Tuesday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Early this
period (Sunday night into Monday) low pressure initially centered
near southwest BC sags south across northwest Okanogan county
toward the Kittitas Valley/lee of the Cascades. This places much
of central and eastern WA and north ID in the favorable lift on
the northeast side of the low. First between Sunday night and
Monday morning the SBCAPE wanes with the loss of heating. Yet some
elevated instability (High Level Total Totals and pockets of
elevated CAPE) migrates over the northern mountains and upper
Columbia Basin. Tack on decent moisture (PWATs around 125 to 150%
of normal) there will be a good threat for showers and even some
thunder through this period. The highest threat will be across
eastern Okanogan county through the northern ID Panhandle, but
chances will also spread across the Columbia Basin through the
central Panhandle. Slight or lower chances will be found
elsewhere.

By Monday afternoon the SBCAPE expands again and the threat of
more scattered to numerous showers/t-storms expands. Models still
place some of the higher precipitation amounts in and around the
northern WA and ID Panhandle mountains and secondarily along the
highway 2 corridor and near the Camas Prairie. For the lower
Columbia Basin into the Palouse, however, models show a dry slot
wrapping in. This should keep the threat of showers lower.

Monday night into Tuesday the center of the low swings toward
toward the WA/ID border. Similar to the trend of the 24 hours
prior, SBCAPE wanes at night but a fair amount of elevated
instability continues within the core of the low, before being
revitalized in the afternoon heating. So look for a decrease, but
not end, in the shower/t-storm coverage at night and an expansion
again through Tuesday afternoon.

In the midst of this low, shear and overall storm motion will be
light, especially away from the Cascades. Thus there will be the
potential for some slow-moving shower/t-storms and locally heavy
downpours. We will have to monitor the situation for localized
flooding concerns. A few storms may also produce some hail.

Temperatures in general are expected to cool under the low, with
highs closer to seasonal norms or a degree or two above.

Tuesday night through Saturday: models are in some agreement in
tracking the low slowly east while another trough approaches the
coast late week. This, plus minor impulses riding in on the
developing north to westerly flow behind the first low, will work
with continued afternoon instability to keep the cycle of shower
and thunderstorm chances alive. This means an increasing chance
for isolated to scattered activity each afternoon, then waning for
the night hours. On a whole, the best chances will retreat to the
mountains from day-to-day until Saturday. By then that next trough
may revitalize the shower/t-storm threat region-wide again.
Temperatures are also projected to undergo a relative warming
trend with the low moving east. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Much less shower and thunderstorm activity in the
forecast for the next 24 hours than in comparison to yesterday.
Ongoing thunderstorms near the Cascades are slowly moving to the
southwest and will not impact TAF sites. Showers and thunderstorms moving
to the Southwest roughly near and south of a line from KMLP to
KPUW may impact KPUW and KLWS within the vicinity this afternoon
and very early this evening but should be diminish and be gone
later this evening. General low pressure will linger on tomorrow
along with a small scale synoptic scale low pressure area
dropping down through British Columbia Sunday night. All if this
will allow more surface based showers and thunderstorms in the
aviation area tomorrow. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  20  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  30  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 232343
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
443 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday: Our next round of pcpn, diurnally driven, has
began to produce a few lightning strikes in the high Cascades near
the BC border as well as over the Camas Prairie region of Idaho. A
decent amnt of sun has contributed to higher SBCAPE this
afternoon. Though there will be a short- wave trough (currently
upstream near the BC coast) that will move south across the region
by Sunday, it looks like it won`t have a significant contribution
synoptically for the thunder threat in the Cascades tonight. This
will be an important issue this evening and Sunday given the
recent burn scar potential for debris flow. As of now, we don`t
anticipate an issues. We also left thunder in the fcst for SE WA
and the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle tonight and Sunday as the wave
approaches and the sfc remains uncapped. There`s sufficient
convective inhibition, or even lack of CAPE altogether, across NE
Wa and the N Idaho Panhandle that thunder does not look like a
significant threat. The areal coverage of thunder will be greater
Sunday versus today, and gap winds near the Cascades may become
gusty Sunday evening. bz

Sunday night through Tuesday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Early this
period (Sunday night into Monday) low pressure initially centered
near southwest BC sags south across northwest Okanogan county
toward the Kittitas Valley/lee of the Cascades. This places much
of central and eastern WA and north ID in the favorable lift on
the northeast side of the low. First between Sunday night and
Monday morning the SBCAPE wanes with the loss of heating. Yet some
elevated instability (High Level Total Totals and pockets of
elevated CAPE) migrates over the northern mountains and upper
Columbia Basin. Tack on decent moisture (PWATs around 125 to 150%
of normal) there will be a good threat for showers and even some
thunder through this period. The highest threat will be across
eastern Okanogan county through the northern ID Panhandle, but
chances will also spread across the Columbia Basin through the
central Panhandle. Slight or lower chances will be found
elsewhere.

By Monday afternoon the SBCAPE expands again and the threat of
more scattered to numerous showers/t-storms expands. Models still
place some of the higher precipitation amounts in and around the
northern WA and ID Panhandle mountains and secondarily along the
highway 2 corridor and near the Camas Prairie. For the lower
Columbia Basin into the Palouse, however, models show a dry slot
wrapping in. This should keep the threat of showers lower.

Monday night into Tuesday the center of the low swings toward
toward the WA/ID border. Similar to the trend of the 24 hours
prior, SBCAPE wanes at night but a fair amount of elevated
instability continues within the core of the low, before being
revitalized in the afternoon heating. So look for a decrease, but
not end, in the shower/t-storm coverage at night and an expansion
again through Tuesday afternoon.

In the midst of this low, shear and overall storm motion will be
light, especially away from the Cascades. Thus there will be the
potential for some slow-moving shower/t-storms and locally heavy
downpours. We will have to monitor the situation for localized
flooding concerns. A few storms may also produce some hail.

Temperatures in general are expected to cool under the low, with
highs closer to seasonal norms or a degree or two above.

Tuesday night through Saturday: models are in some agreement in
tracking the low slowly east while another trough approaches the
coast late week. This, plus minor impulses riding in on the
developing north to westerly flow behind the first low, will work
with continued afternoon instability to keep the cycle of shower
and thunderstorm chances alive. This means an increasing chance
for isolated to scattered activity each afternoon, then waning for
the night hours. On a whole, the best chances will retreat to the
mountains from day-to-day until Saturday. By then that next trough
may revitalize the shower/t-storm threat region-wide again.
Temperatures are also projected to undergo a relative warming
trend with the low moving east. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Much less shower and thunderstorm activity in the
forecast for the next 24 hours than in comparison to yesterday.
Ongoing thunderstorms near the Cascades are slowly moving to the
southwest and will not impact TAF sites. Showers and thunderstorms moving
to the Southwest roughly near and south of a line from KMLP to
KPUW may impact KPUW and KLWS within the vicinity this afternoon
and very early this evening but should be diminish and be gone
later this evening. General low pressure will linger on tomorrow
along with a small scale synoptic scale low pressure area
dropping down through British Columbia Sunday night. All if this
will allow more surface based showers and thunderstorms in the
aviation area tomorrow. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  20  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  30  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 232343
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
443 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday: Our next round of pcpn, diurnally driven, has
began to produce a few lightning strikes in the high Cascades near
the BC border as well as over the Camas Prairie region of Idaho. A
decent amnt of sun has contributed to higher SBCAPE this
afternoon. Though there will be a short- wave trough (currently
upstream near the BC coast) that will move south across the region
by Sunday, it looks like it won`t have a significant contribution
synoptically for the thunder threat in the Cascades tonight. This
will be an important issue this evening and Sunday given the
recent burn scar potential for debris flow. As of now, we don`t
anticipate an issues. We also left thunder in the fcst for SE WA
and the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle tonight and Sunday as the wave
approaches and the sfc remains uncapped. There`s sufficient
convective inhibition, or even lack of CAPE altogether, across NE
Wa and the N Idaho Panhandle that thunder does not look like a
significant threat. The areal coverage of thunder will be greater
Sunday versus today, and gap winds near the Cascades may become
gusty Sunday evening. bz

Sunday night through Tuesday: The Inland NW remains unsettled
with some threat of showers and thunderstorms each day. Early this
period (Sunday night into Monday) low pressure initially centered
near southwest BC sags south across northwest Okanogan county
toward the Kittitas Valley/lee of the Cascades. This places much
of central and eastern WA and north ID in the favorable lift on
the northeast side of the low. First between Sunday night and
Monday morning the SBCAPE wanes with the loss of heating. Yet some
elevated instability (High Level Total Totals and pockets of
elevated CAPE) migrates over the northern mountains and upper
Columbia Basin. Tack on decent moisture (PWATs around 125 to 150%
of normal) there will be a good threat for showers and even some
thunder through this period. The highest threat will be across
eastern Okanogan county through the northern ID Panhandle, but
chances will also spread across the Columbia Basin through the
central Panhandle. Slight or lower chances will be found
elsewhere.

By Monday afternoon the SBCAPE expands again and the threat of
more scattered to numerous showers/t-storms expands. Models still
place some of the higher precipitation amounts in and around the
northern WA and ID Panhandle mountains and secondarily along the
highway 2 corridor and near the Camas Prairie. For the lower
Columbia Basin into the Palouse, however, models show a dry slot
wrapping in. This should keep the threat of showers lower.

Monday night into Tuesday the center of the low swings toward
toward the WA/ID border. Similar to the trend of the 24 hours
prior, SBCAPE wanes at night but a fair amount of elevated
instability continues within the core of the low, before being
revitalized in the afternoon heating. So look for a decrease, but
not end, in the shower/t-storm coverage at night and an expansion
again through Tuesday afternoon.

In the midst of this low, shear and overall storm motion will be
light, especially away from the Cascades. Thus there will be the
potential for some slow-moving shower/t-storms and locally heavy
downpours. We will have to monitor the situation for localized
flooding concerns. A few storms may also produce some hail.

Temperatures in general are expected to cool under the low, with
highs closer to seasonal norms or a degree or two above.

Tuesday night through Saturday: models are in some agreement in
tracking the low slowly east while another trough approaches the
coast late week. This, plus minor impulses riding in on the
developing north to westerly flow behind the first low, will work
with continued afternoon instability to keep the cycle of shower
and thunderstorm chances alive. This means an increasing chance
for isolated to scattered activity each afternoon, then waning for
the night hours. On a whole, the best chances will retreat to the
mountains from day-to-day until Saturday. By then that next trough
may revitalize the shower/t-storm threat region-wide again.
Temperatures are also projected to undergo a relative warming
trend with the low moving east. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Much less shower and thunderstorm activity in the
forecast for the next 24 hours than in comparison to yesterday.
Ongoing thunderstorms near the Cascades are slowly moving to the
southwest and will not impact TAF sites. Showers and thunderstorms moving
to the Southwest roughly near and south of a line from KMLP to
KPUW may impact KPUW and KLWS within the vicinity this afternoon
and very early this evening but should be diminish and be gone
later this evening. General low pressure will linger on tomorrow
along with a small scale synoptic scale low pressure area
dropping down through British Columbia Sunday night. All if this
will allow more surface based showers and thunderstorms in the
aviation area tomorrow. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  79  55  71  51  72 /  10  10  30  50  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  53  70  49  71 /  10  10  30  60  50  60
Pullman        46  74  49  70  45  70 /  20  10  10  30  20  40
Lewiston       53  81  56  77  52  77 /  30  10  20  20  20  30
Colville       51  83  52  72  50  74 /  10  20  50  70  60  60
Sandpoint      47  79  51  70  48  70 /   0  10  30  60  50  60
Kellogg        48  78  50  71  47  71 /  10  10  20  60  40  70
Moses Lake     53  83  55  79  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  20  30
Wenatchee      57  82  58  78  57  78 /  20  20  20  20  20  30
Omak           51  83  52  76  51  77 /  20  40  40  50  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




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