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000
FXUS66 KPQR 271128
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
327 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY INLAND TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT AND FRI. THIS
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AGAIN EARLY FRI. ANOTHER STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRI INTO SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER WEATHER. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY SAT...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX A POSSIBILITY FOR THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS. HIGH PRES OVER THE INTERIOR NW WILL TURN THE FLOW OFFSHORE
BY SUN FOR DRY AND COLD WEATHER. ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE S
SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION UP
OVER THE COLD AIR MASS LEFT OVER FROM THE WEEKEND.
&&

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ARE KEEPING
EXCEPTIONALLY MILD CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON THIS MORNING. IN FACT...THE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S BEING OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AT CURRENT ARE VERY
CLOSE TO THE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPS FOR THE LAST WEEK OF NOVEMBER.
HOWEVER...THE PERIOD OF MILD WEATHER THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BE COMING TO AN END VERY SHORTLY.

THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST THIS MORNING IS NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE. LOOKING AT THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT IS
APPARENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE HAS MOVED
OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SURFACE FRONT CAN BE
MADE OUT ON SATELLITE JUST OFFSHORE AROUND BUOY 29. WITH ONLY SHALLOW
MOISTURE REMAINING AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING ALOFT...THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION THAT IS MOVING ONSHORE IS DEFINITELY ON THE
PATCHIER SIDE. THE RAIN HAS BECOME A BIT STEADIER OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS ALONG THE N COAST AND COAST RANGE...BUT MOST SITES ARE ONLY
PICKING UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN PER HOUR.
STILL...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A DECENT STEADY RAIN AS THE
FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVES INLAND THROUGH THE
DAY. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OREGON
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

THE OTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST THAT WE ARE WATCHING THIS MORNING IS A
PERSISTENT STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND FAR NORTHERN WASHINGTON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DRIVE THIS BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS A SHARP COLD
FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE STALLED FRONT OVER CENTRAL OREGON IS
FCST TO PUSH NORTHWARD AGAIN FRI MORNING. BETWEEN THESE TWO FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES...EXPECT RAINFALL TO STEADILY INCREASE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES FRI. AS THE SHARP COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH DIVES THROUGH
THE REGION LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT...A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS ALOFT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON SAT TO PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR POST FRONTAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY...WHILE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO KEEP SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
BASED ON MODEL 850MB TEMPS AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES...IT
APPEARS THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO AFFECT THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS AT TIMES ON SAT. THE TEMP AND THICKNESS INDICATORS
ARE ONLY MARGINAL AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE MODELS
JUST HOW COLD THE AIR MASS WILL BE...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT
HIGH THAT THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS WILL SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLAKES. AT
ANY RATE...WITH THE MILD TEMPS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IT
IS UNLIKELY THAT ROAD SURFACES WILL BE ABLE TO COOL FAST ENOUGH FOR
THERE TO BE MAJOR TRAVEL CONCERNS. PYLE


LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR SATURDAYS SHOWERS WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES SAT NIGHT...  ITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
COMING TO END OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME CLEARING SAT NIGHT AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH LOW TEMPS LIKELY
GETTING WELL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST SPOTS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE CASCADES...EXPECT STRONG EAST WINDS TO RAMP
UP THROUGH THE GORGE SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS SPILLING INTO THE
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. MONDAY MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WINDS
AS A SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH.

MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE FROM THE ALEUTIANS IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF
FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC JET AND SETTLE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THERE IS A
CHANCE THIS SYSTEM COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPREAD SOME PRECIP
NORTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS
OCCURS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
GORGE. CUTOFF LOWS SUCH AS THIS ONE ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST...AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THEM IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WHERE THIS UPPER LOW GOES WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...A MIXTURE OF IFR AND LOW MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD
ONTO THE COAST WITH THE FIRST INCOMING COLD FRONT EARLY THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS AT THE COAST WILL THEN CONTINUE IN THAT RANGE
INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE BUT STALLS AND SOME
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES AT TIMES. INLAND CONDITIONS ARE STILL VFR
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY. THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER
THE INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR
CIGS OR LOW END VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT INTO FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT
PERIODIC MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CHANGE THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT AS CIGS
HOVER BETWEEN MVFR AND LOW END VFR WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AT TIMES. PT
&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP AS THE FRONT MOVED FARTHER INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...AND GALE WARNING LOOKS GOOD. BELIEVE
WINDS IN THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS WILL EXTEND AN HOUR OR TWO
PAST 4 AM SO HAVE EXTENDED THE GALE THERE. THE FIRST COLD FRONT
MOVES ONSHORE THIS MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO EAST A
BIT...BUT THERE IS REALLY NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT.
THEN IT LOOKS LIKE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...INTO FRIDAY. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WHICH HAS MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY EVENING FOR
CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS...WITH WIND DIRECTIONS
SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL EASE ON SATURDAY...THEN OFFSHORE GAP ENHANCED EAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PROBABLY OF THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY VARIETY. THESE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK.

SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 10 FEET RIGHT NOW BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RUN
IN THE 10 TO 13 FT RANGE TODAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO
HOVER AROUND 10 FT INTO SATURDAY...THEN FALL BELOW 10 FT BY
SUNDAY. SEAS TODAY WILL BE CHOPPY WITH AROUND 8 SECOND PERIODS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PERIODS WILL LENGTHEN TO AROUND 14 SECONDS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT AND BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
WITH PERIODS AND 10 OR 11 SECONDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     6 AM PST FRIDAY.

&&


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
     PST THURSDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 271128
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
327 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY INLAND TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT AND FRI. THIS
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AGAIN EARLY FRI. ANOTHER STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRI INTO SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER WEATHER. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY SAT...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX A POSSIBILITY FOR THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS. HIGH PRES OVER THE INTERIOR NW WILL TURN THE FLOW OFFSHORE
BY SUN FOR DRY AND COLD WEATHER. ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE S
SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION UP
OVER THE COLD AIR MASS LEFT OVER FROM THE WEEKEND.
&&

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ARE KEEPING
EXCEPTIONALLY MILD CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON THIS MORNING. IN FACT...THE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S BEING OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AT CURRENT ARE VERY
CLOSE TO THE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPS FOR THE LAST WEEK OF NOVEMBER.
HOWEVER...THE PERIOD OF MILD WEATHER THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BE COMING TO AN END VERY SHORTLY.

THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST THIS MORNING IS NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE. LOOKING AT THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT IS
APPARENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE HAS MOVED
OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SURFACE FRONT CAN BE
MADE OUT ON SATELLITE JUST OFFSHORE AROUND BUOY 29. WITH ONLY SHALLOW
MOISTURE REMAINING AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING ALOFT...THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION THAT IS MOVING ONSHORE IS DEFINITELY ON THE
PATCHIER SIDE. THE RAIN HAS BECOME A BIT STEADIER OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS ALONG THE N COAST AND COAST RANGE...BUT MOST SITES ARE ONLY
PICKING UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN PER HOUR.
STILL...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A DECENT STEADY RAIN AS THE
FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVES INLAND THROUGH THE
DAY. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OREGON
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

THE OTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST THAT WE ARE WATCHING THIS MORNING IS A
PERSISTENT STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND FAR NORTHERN WASHINGTON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DRIVE THIS BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS A SHARP COLD
FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE STALLED FRONT OVER CENTRAL OREGON IS
FCST TO PUSH NORTHWARD AGAIN FRI MORNING. BETWEEN THESE TWO FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES...EXPECT RAINFALL TO STEADILY INCREASE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES FRI. AS THE SHARP COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH DIVES THROUGH
THE REGION LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT...A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS ALOFT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON SAT TO PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR POST FRONTAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY...WHILE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO KEEP SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
BASED ON MODEL 850MB TEMPS AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES...IT
APPEARS THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO AFFECT THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS AT TIMES ON SAT. THE TEMP AND THICKNESS INDICATORS
ARE ONLY MARGINAL AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE MODELS
JUST HOW COLD THE AIR MASS WILL BE...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT
HIGH THAT THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS WILL SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLAKES. AT
ANY RATE...WITH THE MILD TEMPS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IT
IS UNLIKELY THAT ROAD SURFACES WILL BE ABLE TO COOL FAST ENOUGH FOR
THERE TO BE MAJOR TRAVEL CONCERNS. PYLE


LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR SATURDAYS SHOWERS WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES SAT NIGHT...  ITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
COMING TO END OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME CLEARING SAT NIGHT AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH LOW TEMPS LIKELY
GETTING WELL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST SPOTS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE CASCADES...EXPECT STRONG EAST WINDS TO RAMP
UP THROUGH THE GORGE SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS SPILLING INTO THE
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. MONDAY MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WINDS
AS A SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH.

MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE FROM THE ALEUTIANS IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF
FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC JET AND SETTLE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THERE IS A
CHANCE THIS SYSTEM COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPREAD SOME PRECIP
NORTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS
OCCURS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
GORGE. CUTOFF LOWS SUCH AS THIS ONE ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST...AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THEM IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WHERE THIS UPPER LOW GOES WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...A MIXTURE OF IFR AND LOW MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD
ONTO THE COAST WITH THE FIRST INCOMING COLD FRONT EARLY THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS AT THE COAST WILL THEN CONTINUE IN THAT RANGE
INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE BUT STALLS AND SOME
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES AT TIMES. INLAND CONDITIONS ARE STILL VFR
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY. THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER
THE INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR
CIGS OR LOW END VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT INTO FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT
PERIODIC MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CHANGE THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT AS CIGS
HOVER BETWEEN MVFR AND LOW END VFR WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AT TIMES. PT
&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP AS THE FRONT MOVED FARTHER INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...AND GALE WARNING LOOKS GOOD. BELIEVE
WINDS IN THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS WILL EXTEND AN HOUR OR TWO
PAST 4 AM SO HAVE EXTENDED THE GALE THERE. THE FIRST COLD FRONT
MOVES ONSHORE THIS MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO EAST A
BIT...BUT THERE IS REALLY NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT.
THEN IT LOOKS LIKE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...INTO FRIDAY. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WHICH HAS MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY EVENING FOR
CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS...WITH WIND DIRECTIONS
SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL EASE ON SATURDAY...THEN OFFSHORE GAP ENHANCED EAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PROBABLY OF THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY VARIETY. THESE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK.

SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 10 FEET RIGHT NOW BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RUN
IN THE 10 TO 13 FT RANGE TODAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO
HOVER AROUND 10 FT INTO SATURDAY...THEN FALL BELOW 10 FT BY
SUNDAY. SEAS TODAY WILL BE CHOPPY WITH AROUND 8 SECOND PERIODS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PERIODS WILL LENGTHEN TO AROUND 14 SECONDS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT AND BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
WITH PERIODS AND 10 OR 11 SECONDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     6 AM PST FRIDAY.

&&


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
     PST THURSDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSEW 271122
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE AREA
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING GIVING FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SOME SNOW OR RAIN AND SNOW MIXED IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG
THIS SECOND FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STRONG FRASER
OUTFLOW WILL GIVE WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH INTERIOR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...VERY ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

A FRONTAL FEATURE MOVED INLAND THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
WHILE IT HAS BEEN WINDY ACROSS THE NORTH INTERIOR AND ALONG THE
NORTH COAST...WINDS HAVE BEEN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL
ALLOW THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM PST.

WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS ORIGINATING FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL PACIFIC. SO...WE CAN EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF
THE RATHER WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS THAT WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR STEADY IN THE 50S THROUGH
TONIGHT. STRONG ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT OF THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS - WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 50 - IS
RESULTING IN GOOD OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH POSSIBLY SOME INCREASE IN ONSHORE
FLOW TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON FORECAST
PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA AND ITS IMPACT ON LOCAL RIVER.

BIG CHANGES BEGIN TO OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT IS PASSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO SHARPEN AND DIG INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INTENSIFY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
THAT NOW SITS OVER THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE SOUND AND SWEEP IT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB BEGIN
FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FALLING FROM NEAR
550 DAM TO AROUND 520 DAM PER THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GFS SHOWS
HEIGHT FALLS A BIT WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT IS STILL VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND IS RATHER CONSISTENT. SO A SHARP FRONT MOVES SE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH EARLY MORNING HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN MOST AREAS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE FRONT PER MESOSCALE
MODELS LIKE THE UW WRFGFS ARE IMPRESSIVE FRIDAY MORNING. MOST AREAS
WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A MODIFIED ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REACH THE FAR NORTH
INTERIOR EARLY FRIDAY EVENING THEN TAKE ITS TIME MOVING SOUTH TO
AROUND EVERETT ABOUT MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE SEATTLE
AREA SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SHARP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND POSSIBLY A LEE SIDE LOW THAT FORMS OFF
VANCOUVER ISLAND AND MOVES INLAND SOMEWHERE AROUND THE SOUTH
INTERIOR SATURDAY MORNING. A CONVERGENCE ZONE-LIKE FEATURE CAN BE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE MODIFIED ARCTIC FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY DUE TO THE COOLING ALOFT...THEN SHOULD BE NEAR
SEA LEVEL SATURDAY MORNING ALL AREAS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE
LOWLANDS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. FORECAST MODELS RANGE
FROM ABOUT AN INCH IN THE GFS SOLUTION TO POSSIBLY 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH INTERIOR DOWN TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
SEATTLE PER THE ECMWF...NAM12 AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. CURRENT
FORECASTS WILL BE A MODEL BLEND BETWEEN THESE AMOUNTS AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

BEHIND THE MODIFIED ARCTIC FRONT...STRONG FRASER OUTFLOW WILL AFFECT
THE NORTH INTERIOR. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT BELLINGHAM TO
WILLIAMS LAKE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL FALL TO -18 TO -23 MB. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN N TO NE WINDS 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH SAT
MORNING BELLINGHAM NORTHWARD AND IN THE SAN JUANS.

WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE RAPIDLY CHANGING
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLE LOWLAND SNOW...AND LOCALLY VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...AFTER A COLD MORNING ON SUNDAY...EXPECT GRADUALLY
MODERATING CONDITIONS LATER SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
VERY ON PRECIPITATION THREATS STARTING MONDAY WITH THE GFS BRINGING
SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE INTO OREGON AND FAR SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS BRINGING A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE SAME PERIOD. AT THIS TIME THE DRY
FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED BUT CLOUDS WERE INCREASED. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SNOQUALMIE RIVER NEAR CARNATION REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE AS A RESULT OF THE HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS FALLING AND WILL DROP BELOW FLOOD
STAGE IN A FEW HOURS.

RAIN BEGAN SPREADING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE WEDNESDAY. AS EXPECTED THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS
BEEN OVER THE SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS...AND IN THE
CASCADES FROM ROUGHLY THE SNOHOMISH BASIN NORTHWARD. MANY STATIONS
THERE ARE REPORTING 0.6 TO 1.3 INCHES IN THE LAST 12 HOURS...AND
MOST OF THE RIVERS IN THE REGION HAVE STARTED RISING AGAIN.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH STRONG
OROGRAPHIC FORCING AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 40 KT OR SO
CONTINUE. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE OLYMPICS AND
NORTH CASCADES TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT...AND THEN THE FRONTAL BAND
AND HEAVIEST RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY. THE SNOW
LEVEL WILL BE 5500 TO 7000 FT THROUGH TONIGHT...AND IT SHOULD FALL
GRADUALLY ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA.

ANOTHER 3.0 TO 5.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY IN THE OLYMPICS
AND CASCADES FROM THE SNOHOMISH BASIN NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
COULD CAUSE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD...AND IT COULD REACH FLOOD
STAGE THIS EVENING. IN THE NORTH CASCADES...THE NOOKSACK AND SKAGIT
RIVERS CAME CLOSE TO FLOODING ON WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH FACE A THREAT
OF FLOODING IN THIS EPISODE. IN ADDITION THE STILLAGUAMISH...
SKYKOMISH...TOLT...SNOQUALMIE...AND SNOHOMISH RIVERS -- ALL OF WHICH
FLOODED OR NEARLY FLOODED IN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS -- COULD FLOOD AS
WELL. FLOODING ON THESE CASCADE RIVERS WOULD PROBABLY BEGIN TONIGHT
OR FRIDAY. A MAJOR FLOODING EPISODE IS UNLIKELY...BUT IT WOULD BE NO
SURPRISE IF MANY OF THESE RIVERS HAVE MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING.

THE CASCADES SOUTH OF THE SNOHOMISH BASIN WILL PROBABLY RECEIVE 2 TO
4 INCHES OF RAIN. MOST OF THAT COULD FALL ON FRIDAY AND SOME MODELS
-- ESPECIALLY THE UW WRF-GFS -- SHOW FAIRLY INTENSE RAINFALL IN THAT
AREA. SO THE RIVERS THERE FACE A THREAT OF FLOODING AS WELL. OF
COURSE SOME OF THEM RECENTLY FLOODED...AND THEY ARE ALL RUNNING
HIGH.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST OF WESTERN WASHINGTON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH COLD AND DRIER WEATHER LIKELY THIS WEEKEND. RIVERS
SHOULD THEN RECEDE AND THE FLOOD THREAT WILL END FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.   MCDONNAL

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT RAIN AT TIMES THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH WESTERN WA. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN -RA. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONT. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHIFTS S/SE INTO WESTERN WA.
33

KSEA...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES TODAY WITH CIGS NEAR 3000 FT.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 20015G25KT EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. 33

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN WA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH MODERATE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS -
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN TIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH INTO WESTERN WA. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER
INTERIOR B.C. WILL BRING N/NE FRASER RIVER OUTFLOW WINDS LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT WITH GALES POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL SUN AND MON WITH HIGH PRES EAST OF THE
CASCADES. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
      WESTERN WASHINGTON.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR BAR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KSEW 271122
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE AREA
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING GIVING FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SOME SNOW OR RAIN AND SNOW MIXED IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG
THIS SECOND FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STRONG FRASER
OUTFLOW WILL GIVE WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH INTERIOR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...VERY ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

A FRONTAL FEATURE MOVED INLAND THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
WHILE IT HAS BEEN WINDY ACROSS THE NORTH INTERIOR AND ALONG THE
NORTH COAST...WINDS HAVE BEEN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL
ALLOW THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM PST.

WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS ORIGINATING FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL PACIFIC. SO...WE CAN EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF
THE RATHER WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS THAT WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR STEADY IN THE 50S THROUGH
TONIGHT. STRONG ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT OF THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS - WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 50 - IS
RESULTING IN GOOD OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH POSSIBLY SOME INCREASE IN ONSHORE
FLOW TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON FORECAST
PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA AND ITS IMPACT ON LOCAL RIVER.

BIG CHANGES BEGIN TO OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT IS PASSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO SHARPEN AND DIG INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INTENSIFY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
THAT NOW SITS OVER THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE SOUND AND SWEEP IT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB BEGIN
FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FALLING FROM NEAR
550 DAM TO AROUND 520 DAM PER THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GFS SHOWS
HEIGHT FALLS A BIT WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT IS STILL VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND IS RATHER CONSISTENT. SO A SHARP FRONT MOVES SE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH EARLY MORNING HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN MOST AREAS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE FRONT PER MESOSCALE
MODELS LIKE THE UW WRFGFS ARE IMPRESSIVE FRIDAY MORNING. MOST AREAS
WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A MODIFIED ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REACH THE FAR NORTH
INTERIOR EARLY FRIDAY EVENING THEN TAKE ITS TIME MOVING SOUTH TO
AROUND EVERETT ABOUT MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE SEATTLE
AREA SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SHARP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND POSSIBLY A LEE SIDE LOW THAT FORMS OFF
VANCOUVER ISLAND AND MOVES INLAND SOMEWHERE AROUND THE SOUTH
INTERIOR SATURDAY MORNING. A CONVERGENCE ZONE-LIKE FEATURE CAN BE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE MODIFIED ARCTIC FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY DUE TO THE COOLING ALOFT...THEN SHOULD BE NEAR
SEA LEVEL SATURDAY MORNING ALL AREAS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE
LOWLANDS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. FORECAST MODELS RANGE
FROM ABOUT AN INCH IN THE GFS SOLUTION TO POSSIBLY 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH INTERIOR DOWN TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
SEATTLE PER THE ECMWF...NAM12 AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. CURRENT
FORECASTS WILL BE A MODEL BLEND BETWEEN THESE AMOUNTS AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

BEHIND THE MODIFIED ARCTIC FRONT...STRONG FRASER OUTFLOW WILL AFFECT
THE NORTH INTERIOR. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT BELLINGHAM TO
WILLIAMS LAKE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL FALL TO -18 TO -23 MB. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN N TO NE WINDS 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH SAT
MORNING BELLINGHAM NORTHWARD AND IN THE SAN JUANS.

WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE RAPIDLY CHANGING
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLE LOWLAND SNOW...AND LOCALLY VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...AFTER A COLD MORNING ON SUNDAY...EXPECT GRADUALLY
MODERATING CONDITIONS LATER SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
VERY ON PRECIPITATION THREATS STARTING MONDAY WITH THE GFS BRINGING
SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE INTO OREGON AND FAR SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS BRINGING A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE SAME PERIOD. AT THIS TIME THE DRY
FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED BUT CLOUDS WERE INCREASED. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SNOQUALMIE RIVER NEAR CARNATION REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE AS A RESULT OF THE HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS FALLING AND WILL DROP BELOW FLOOD
STAGE IN A FEW HOURS.

RAIN BEGAN SPREADING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE WEDNESDAY. AS EXPECTED THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS
BEEN OVER THE SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS...AND IN THE
CASCADES FROM ROUGHLY THE SNOHOMISH BASIN NORTHWARD. MANY STATIONS
THERE ARE REPORTING 0.6 TO 1.3 INCHES IN THE LAST 12 HOURS...AND
MOST OF THE RIVERS IN THE REGION HAVE STARTED RISING AGAIN.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH STRONG
OROGRAPHIC FORCING AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 40 KT OR SO
CONTINUE. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE OLYMPICS AND
NORTH CASCADES TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT...AND THEN THE FRONTAL BAND
AND HEAVIEST RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY. THE SNOW
LEVEL WILL BE 5500 TO 7000 FT THROUGH TONIGHT...AND IT SHOULD FALL
GRADUALLY ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA.

ANOTHER 3.0 TO 5.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY IN THE OLYMPICS
AND CASCADES FROM THE SNOHOMISH BASIN NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
COULD CAUSE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD...AND IT COULD REACH FLOOD
STAGE THIS EVENING. IN THE NORTH CASCADES...THE NOOKSACK AND SKAGIT
RIVERS CAME CLOSE TO FLOODING ON WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH FACE A THREAT
OF FLOODING IN THIS EPISODE. IN ADDITION THE STILLAGUAMISH...
SKYKOMISH...TOLT...SNOQUALMIE...AND SNOHOMISH RIVERS -- ALL OF WHICH
FLOODED OR NEARLY FLOODED IN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS -- COULD FLOOD AS
WELL. FLOODING ON THESE CASCADE RIVERS WOULD PROBABLY BEGIN TONIGHT
OR FRIDAY. A MAJOR FLOODING EPISODE IS UNLIKELY...BUT IT WOULD BE NO
SURPRISE IF MANY OF THESE RIVERS HAVE MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING.

THE CASCADES SOUTH OF THE SNOHOMISH BASIN WILL PROBABLY RECEIVE 2 TO
4 INCHES OF RAIN. MOST OF THAT COULD FALL ON FRIDAY AND SOME MODELS
-- ESPECIALLY THE UW WRF-GFS -- SHOW FAIRLY INTENSE RAINFALL IN THAT
AREA. SO THE RIVERS THERE FACE A THREAT OF FLOODING AS WELL. OF
COURSE SOME OF THEM RECENTLY FLOODED...AND THEY ARE ALL RUNNING
HIGH.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST OF WESTERN WASHINGTON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH COLD AND DRIER WEATHER LIKELY THIS WEEKEND. RIVERS
SHOULD THEN RECEDE AND THE FLOOD THREAT WILL END FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.   MCDONNAL

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT RAIN AT TIMES THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH WESTERN WA. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN -RA. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONT. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHIFTS S/SE INTO WESTERN WA.
33

KSEA...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES TODAY WITH CIGS NEAR 3000 FT.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 20015G25KT EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. 33

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN WA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH MODERATE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS -
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN TIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH INTO WESTERN WA. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER
INTERIOR B.C. WILL BRING N/NE FRASER RIVER OUTFLOW WINDS LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT WITH GALES POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL SUN AND MON WITH HIGH PRES EAST OF THE
CASCADES. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
      WESTERN WASHINGTON.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR BAR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KSEW 271122
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE AREA
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING GIVING FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SOME SNOW OR RAIN AND SNOW MIXED IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG
THIS SECOND FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STRONG FRASER
OUTFLOW WILL GIVE WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH INTERIOR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...VERY ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

A FRONTAL FEATURE MOVED INLAND THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
WHILE IT HAS BEEN WINDY ACROSS THE NORTH INTERIOR AND ALONG THE
NORTH COAST...WINDS HAVE BEEN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL
ALLOW THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM PST.

WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS ORIGINATING FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL PACIFIC. SO...WE CAN EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF
THE RATHER WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS THAT WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR STEADY IN THE 50S THROUGH
TONIGHT. STRONG ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT OF THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS - WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 50 - IS
RESULTING IN GOOD OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH POSSIBLY SOME INCREASE IN ONSHORE
FLOW TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON FORECAST
PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA AND ITS IMPACT ON LOCAL RIVER.

BIG CHANGES BEGIN TO OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT IS PASSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO SHARPEN AND DIG INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INTENSIFY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
THAT NOW SITS OVER THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE SOUND AND SWEEP IT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB BEGIN
FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FALLING FROM NEAR
550 DAM TO AROUND 520 DAM PER THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GFS SHOWS
HEIGHT FALLS A BIT WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT IS STILL VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND IS RATHER CONSISTENT. SO A SHARP FRONT MOVES SE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH EARLY MORNING HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN MOST AREAS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE FRONT PER MESOSCALE
MODELS LIKE THE UW WRFGFS ARE IMPRESSIVE FRIDAY MORNING. MOST AREAS
WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A MODIFIED ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REACH THE FAR NORTH
INTERIOR EARLY FRIDAY EVENING THEN TAKE ITS TIME MOVING SOUTH TO
AROUND EVERETT ABOUT MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE SEATTLE
AREA SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SHARP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND POSSIBLY A LEE SIDE LOW THAT FORMS OFF
VANCOUVER ISLAND AND MOVES INLAND SOMEWHERE AROUND THE SOUTH
INTERIOR SATURDAY MORNING. A CONVERGENCE ZONE-LIKE FEATURE CAN BE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE MODIFIED ARCTIC FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY DUE TO THE COOLING ALOFT...THEN SHOULD BE NEAR
SEA LEVEL SATURDAY MORNING ALL AREAS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE
LOWLANDS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. FORECAST MODELS RANGE
FROM ABOUT AN INCH IN THE GFS SOLUTION TO POSSIBLY 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH INTERIOR DOWN TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
SEATTLE PER THE ECMWF...NAM12 AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. CURRENT
FORECASTS WILL BE A MODEL BLEND BETWEEN THESE AMOUNTS AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

BEHIND THE MODIFIED ARCTIC FRONT...STRONG FRASER OUTFLOW WILL AFFECT
THE NORTH INTERIOR. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT BELLINGHAM TO
WILLIAMS LAKE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL FALL TO -18 TO -23 MB. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN N TO NE WINDS 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH SAT
MORNING BELLINGHAM NORTHWARD AND IN THE SAN JUANS.

WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE RAPIDLY CHANGING
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLE LOWLAND SNOW...AND LOCALLY VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...AFTER A COLD MORNING ON SUNDAY...EXPECT GRADUALLY
MODERATING CONDITIONS LATER SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
VERY ON PRECIPITATION THREATS STARTING MONDAY WITH THE GFS BRINGING
SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE INTO OREGON AND FAR SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS BRINGING A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE SAME PERIOD. AT THIS TIME THE DRY
FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED BUT CLOUDS WERE INCREASED. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SNOQUALMIE RIVER NEAR CARNATION REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE AS A RESULT OF THE HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS FALLING AND WILL DROP BELOW FLOOD
STAGE IN A FEW HOURS.

RAIN BEGAN SPREADING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE WEDNESDAY. AS EXPECTED THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS
BEEN OVER THE SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS...AND IN THE
CASCADES FROM ROUGHLY THE SNOHOMISH BASIN NORTHWARD. MANY STATIONS
THERE ARE REPORTING 0.6 TO 1.3 INCHES IN THE LAST 12 HOURS...AND
MOST OF THE RIVERS IN THE REGION HAVE STARTED RISING AGAIN.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH STRONG
OROGRAPHIC FORCING AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 40 KT OR SO
CONTINUE. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE OLYMPICS AND
NORTH CASCADES TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT...AND THEN THE FRONTAL BAND
AND HEAVIEST RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY. THE SNOW
LEVEL WILL BE 5500 TO 7000 FT THROUGH TONIGHT...AND IT SHOULD FALL
GRADUALLY ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA.

ANOTHER 3.0 TO 5.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY IN THE OLYMPICS
AND CASCADES FROM THE SNOHOMISH BASIN NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
COULD CAUSE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD...AND IT COULD REACH FLOOD
STAGE THIS EVENING. IN THE NORTH CASCADES...THE NOOKSACK AND SKAGIT
RIVERS CAME CLOSE TO FLOODING ON WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH FACE A THREAT
OF FLOODING IN THIS EPISODE. IN ADDITION THE STILLAGUAMISH...
SKYKOMISH...TOLT...SNOQUALMIE...AND SNOHOMISH RIVERS -- ALL OF WHICH
FLOODED OR NEARLY FLOODED IN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS -- COULD FLOOD AS
WELL. FLOODING ON THESE CASCADE RIVERS WOULD PROBABLY BEGIN TONIGHT
OR FRIDAY. A MAJOR FLOODING EPISODE IS UNLIKELY...BUT IT WOULD BE NO
SURPRISE IF MANY OF THESE RIVERS HAVE MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING.

THE CASCADES SOUTH OF THE SNOHOMISH BASIN WILL PROBABLY RECEIVE 2 TO
4 INCHES OF RAIN. MOST OF THAT COULD FALL ON FRIDAY AND SOME MODELS
-- ESPECIALLY THE UW WRF-GFS -- SHOW FAIRLY INTENSE RAINFALL IN THAT
AREA. SO THE RIVERS THERE FACE A THREAT OF FLOODING AS WELL. OF
COURSE SOME OF THEM RECENTLY FLOODED...AND THEY ARE ALL RUNNING
HIGH.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST OF WESTERN WASHINGTON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH COLD AND DRIER WEATHER LIKELY THIS WEEKEND. RIVERS
SHOULD THEN RECEDE AND THE FLOOD THREAT WILL END FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.   MCDONNAL

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT RAIN AT TIMES THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH WESTERN WA. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN -RA. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONT. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHIFTS S/SE INTO WESTERN WA.
33

KSEA...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES TODAY WITH CIGS NEAR 3000 FT.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 20015G25KT EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. 33

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN WA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH MODERATE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS -
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN TIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH INTO WESTERN WA. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER
INTERIOR B.C. WILL BRING N/NE FRASER RIVER OUTFLOW WINDS LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT WITH GALES POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL SUN AND MON WITH HIGH PRES EAST OF THE
CASCADES. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
      WESTERN WASHINGTON.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR BAR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KSEW 271122
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE AREA
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING GIVING FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SOME SNOW OR RAIN AND SNOW MIXED IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG
THIS SECOND FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STRONG FRASER
OUTFLOW WILL GIVE WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH INTERIOR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...VERY ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

A FRONTAL FEATURE MOVED INLAND THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
WHILE IT HAS BEEN WINDY ACROSS THE NORTH INTERIOR AND ALONG THE
NORTH COAST...WINDS HAVE BEEN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL
ALLOW THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM PST.

WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS ORIGINATING FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL PACIFIC. SO...WE CAN EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF
THE RATHER WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS THAT WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR STEADY IN THE 50S THROUGH
TONIGHT. STRONG ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT OF THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS - WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 50 - IS
RESULTING IN GOOD OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH POSSIBLY SOME INCREASE IN ONSHORE
FLOW TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON FORECAST
PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA AND ITS IMPACT ON LOCAL RIVER.

BIG CHANGES BEGIN TO OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT IS PASSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO SHARPEN AND DIG INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INTENSIFY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
THAT NOW SITS OVER THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE SOUND AND SWEEP IT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB BEGIN
FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FALLING FROM NEAR
550 DAM TO AROUND 520 DAM PER THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GFS SHOWS
HEIGHT FALLS A BIT WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT IS STILL VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND IS RATHER CONSISTENT. SO A SHARP FRONT MOVES SE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH EARLY MORNING HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN MOST AREAS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE FRONT PER MESOSCALE
MODELS LIKE THE UW WRFGFS ARE IMPRESSIVE FRIDAY MORNING. MOST AREAS
WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A MODIFIED ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REACH THE FAR NORTH
INTERIOR EARLY FRIDAY EVENING THEN TAKE ITS TIME MOVING SOUTH TO
AROUND EVERETT ABOUT MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE SEATTLE
AREA SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SHARP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND POSSIBLY A LEE SIDE LOW THAT FORMS OFF
VANCOUVER ISLAND AND MOVES INLAND SOMEWHERE AROUND THE SOUTH
INTERIOR SATURDAY MORNING. A CONVERGENCE ZONE-LIKE FEATURE CAN BE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE MODIFIED ARCTIC FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY DUE TO THE COOLING ALOFT...THEN SHOULD BE NEAR
SEA LEVEL SATURDAY MORNING ALL AREAS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE
LOWLANDS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. FORECAST MODELS RANGE
FROM ABOUT AN INCH IN THE GFS SOLUTION TO POSSIBLY 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH INTERIOR DOWN TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
SEATTLE PER THE ECMWF...NAM12 AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. CURRENT
FORECASTS WILL BE A MODEL BLEND BETWEEN THESE AMOUNTS AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

BEHIND THE MODIFIED ARCTIC FRONT...STRONG FRASER OUTFLOW WILL AFFECT
THE NORTH INTERIOR. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT BELLINGHAM TO
WILLIAMS LAKE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL FALL TO -18 TO -23 MB. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN N TO NE WINDS 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH SAT
MORNING BELLINGHAM NORTHWARD AND IN THE SAN JUANS.

WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE RAPIDLY CHANGING
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLE LOWLAND SNOW...AND LOCALLY VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...AFTER A COLD MORNING ON SUNDAY...EXPECT GRADUALLY
MODERATING CONDITIONS LATER SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
VERY ON PRECIPITATION THREATS STARTING MONDAY WITH THE GFS BRINGING
SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE INTO OREGON AND FAR SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS BRINGING A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE SAME PERIOD. AT THIS TIME THE DRY
FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED BUT CLOUDS WERE INCREASED. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SNOQUALMIE RIVER NEAR CARNATION REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE AS A RESULT OF THE HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS FALLING AND WILL DROP BELOW FLOOD
STAGE IN A FEW HOURS.

RAIN BEGAN SPREADING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE WEDNESDAY. AS EXPECTED THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS
BEEN OVER THE SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS...AND IN THE
CASCADES FROM ROUGHLY THE SNOHOMISH BASIN NORTHWARD. MANY STATIONS
THERE ARE REPORTING 0.6 TO 1.3 INCHES IN THE LAST 12 HOURS...AND
MOST OF THE RIVERS IN THE REGION HAVE STARTED RISING AGAIN.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH STRONG
OROGRAPHIC FORCING AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 40 KT OR SO
CONTINUE. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE OLYMPICS AND
NORTH CASCADES TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT...AND THEN THE FRONTAL BAND
AND HEAVIEST RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY. THE SNOW
LEVEL WILL BE 5500 TO 7000 FT THROUGH TONIGHT...AND IT SHOULD FALL
GRADUALLY ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA.

ANOTHER 3.0 TO 5.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY IN THE OLYMPICS
AND CASCADES FROM THE SNOHOMISH BASIN NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
COULD CAUSE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD...AND IT COULD REACH FLOOD
STAGE THIS EVENING. IN THE NORTH CASCADES...THE NOOKSACK AND SKAGIT
RIVERS CAME CLOSE TO FLOODING ON WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH FACE A THREAT
OF FLOODING IN THIS EPISODE. IN ADDITION THE STILLAGUAMISH...
SKYKOMISH...TOLT...SNOQUALMIE...AND SNOHOMISH RIVERS -- ALL OF WHICH
FLOODED OR NEARLY FLOODED IN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS -- COULD FLOOD AS
WELL. FLOODING ON THESE CASCADE RIVERS WOULD PROBABLY BEGIN TONIGHT
OR FRIDAY. A MAJOR FLOODING EPISODE IS UNLIKELY...BUT IT WOULD BE NO
SURPRISE IF MANY OF THESE RIVERS HAVE MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING.

THE CASCADES SOUTH OF THE SNOHOMISH BASIN WILL PROBABLY RECEIVE 2 TO
4 INCHES OF RAIN. MOST OF THAT COULD FALL ON FRIDAY AND SOME MODELS
-- ESPECIALLY THE UW WRF-GFS -- SHOW FAIRLY INTENSE RAINFALL IN THAT
AREA. SO THE RIVERS THERE FACE A THREAT OF FLOODING AS WELL. OF
COURSE SOME OF THEM RECENTLY FLOODED...AND THEY ARE ALL RUNNING
HIGH.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST OF WESTERN WASHINGTON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH COLD AND DRIER WEATHER LIKELY THIS WEEKEND. RIVERS
SHOULD THEN RECEDE AND THE FLOOD THREAT WILL END FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.   MCDONNAL

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT RAIN AT TIMES THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH WESTERN WA. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN -RA. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONT. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHIFTS S/SE INTO WESTERN WA.
33

KSEA...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES TODAY WITH CIGS NEAR 3000 FT.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 20015G25KT EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. 33

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN WA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH MODERATE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS -
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN TIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH INTO WESTERN WA. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER
INTERIOR B.C. WILL BRING N/NE FRASER RIVER OUTFLOW WINDS LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT WITH GALES POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL SUN AND MON WITH HIGH PRES EAST OF THE
CASCADES. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
      WESTERN WASHINGTON.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR BAR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








  [top]

000
FXUS66 KOTX 271044
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
244 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected Thanksgiving with areas of
fog in the morning. Snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions today through Friday afternoon.
The arrival of a very cold and windy arctic front Friday Night
into Saturday will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain
passes and much cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Fri: The biggest changes to the fcst were to
decrease the amnt of pcpn for all non-mountain zones, increase the
winds, and warm temperatures a bit. Though by far the most
eventful part of the fcst will be Fri Nt through the weekend as
we deal with a significant cold front passage that will produce
snow for all elevations, gusty cold north winds and temps as low
as the single digits, we have some relatively mild, but windy
weather to deal with first. Currently behind a cool frontal
passage late yesterday, we`re still anticipating sfc winds to
increase slowly and help to mix out any dense fog now in the Upper
Columbia Basin. We`ve extended the dense fog advsy a few more
hours and will be watched carefully. The good news is that temps
are above freezing, so very slick roads shouldn`t be a big problem
on this important Thanksgiving day travel morning. Today and
Friday all of Ern Wa and N Id will be in a mild pre-arctic cold
front air mass, with well- above normal temps. However, this same
pattern typically favors very gusty winds. This time it`s no
different. Most model guidance shows persistent 850mb winds
(roughly 5k ft above the sfc) from the southwest at 35-45kt.
Expect these winds to begin to increase this morning. Temps will
be mild, even low temps for areas that manage to remain coupled
with these winds aloft (non- valley sites). bz

Friday night through Sunday...The wet but mild weather pattern
will come to an end as an arctic front slides south across the
region bringing much colder and drier air with it. A strong
surface low will slide south across eastern WA and north ID Friday
night, bringing a good chance of precipitation to the eastern half
of the forecast area along with strong gusty southwest winds. Snow
levels will start out around 5k ft Friday evening then come
crashing down overnight. The bulk of the precip will fall as rain
in the valleys. By the time the cold air moves in, the low will be
over central Idaho with showers limited to the southeast zones.
The Camas Prairie may see some low end advisory snowfall but even
this amount is uncertain.

On Saturday the exiting low and building high pressure over
southern BC will set up a strong surface pressure gradient that
will channel northerly winds down the Okanogan Valley and Purcell
Trench and into the basin. This pattern shows the potential for
wind highlights and will continue to be monitored. Saturday
morning temperatures will likely be the high for the day as the
frigid air continues to march south across the area. The rest of
the weekend will continue the cold and dry trend with lows in the
single digits across the northern zones. Valley highs in the 20s
will be common.

Sunday night through Wednesday...The cold temperatures will start
to moderate as northerly winds are replaced by more westerly flow.
Model solutions diverge when it comes to moisture over the region.
The GFS wants to bring the surface boundary back north as a warm
front but the new run of the ECMWF brings a shortwave trough
across the northeast zones. No big changes made to the extended
forecast at this point other than to trend PoPs toward climo for
the end of the forecast period. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The region will remain in a stable pattern, especially
near the surface, with a few weak disturbances riding over in the
mid-levels. Abundant low level moisture will keep some low clouds
and fog across the Basin, with localized IFR cigs/vis around MWH.
This is expected to gradually improve toward 12-15Z. Patchier fog
or mist will be possible around the remaining TAF sites, but with
the incoming disturbance we are expecting MVFR/VFR conditions.
Some threat of showers will be found around GEG to COE, PUW and
LWS late overnight into Thursday, with the better chances closer
to the ID panhandle and about the mountains. Winds will pick up
through the day Thursday, with some gusts over 20kts possible.
Late Thursday evening there will the threat of MVFR/IFR cigs
returning over eastern TAF sites.

NOTE: the VIS sensor at EAT is out of service so amendments to
VIS are not scheduled. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        52  41  50  27  27  12 /  30  20  70  60  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  51  41  49  29  29  12 /  40  40  80  90  20  10
Pullman        54  43  53  32  32  16 /  30  30  90  90  50  10
Lewiston       56  46  56  38  38  23 /  20  20  60  70  60  20
Colville       50  40  47  22  22   7 /  50  40  70  60  10   0
Sandpoint      46  38  45  26  26   8 /  70  70  80  90  20  10
Kellogg        48  39  45  30  30  12 /  80  70  90 100  50  10
Moses Lake     56  41  56  27  27  12 /  10  20  30  30  10   0
Wenatchee      51  41  51  29  29  13 /  10  30  20  20  10   0
Omak           47  37  46  16  16   3 /  20  20  30  20  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM PST early this morning for
Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 271044
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
244 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected Thanksgiving with areas of
fog in the morning. Snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions today through Friday afternoon.
The arrival of a very cold and windy arctic front Friday Night
into Saturday will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain
passes and much cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Fri: The biggest changes to the fcst were to
decrease the amnt of pcpn for all non-mountain zones, increase the
winds, and warm temperatures a bit. Though by far the most
eventful part of the fcst will be Fri Nt through the weekend as
we deal with a significant cold front passage that will produce
snow for all elevations, gusty cold north winds and temps as low
as the single digits, we have some relatively mild, but windy
weather to deal with first. Currently behind a cool frontal
passage late yesterday, we`re still anticipating sfc winds to
increase slowly and help to mix out any dense fog now in the Upper
Columbia Basin. We`ve extended the dense fog advsy a few more
hours and will be watched carefully. The good news is that temps
are above freezing, so very slick roads shouldn`t be a big problem
on this important Thanksgiving day travel morning. Today and
Friday all of Ern Wa and N Id will be in a mild pre-arctic cold
front air mass, with well- above normal temps. However, this same
pattern typically favors very gusty winds. This time it`s no
different. Most model guidance shows persistent 850mb winds
(roughly 5k ft above the sfc) from the southwest at 35-45kt.
Expect these winds to begin to increase this morning. Temps will
be mild, even low temps for areas that manage to remain coupled
with these winds aloft (non- valley sites). bz

Friday night through Sunday...The wet but mild weather pattern
will come to an end as an arctic front slides south across the
region bringing much colder and drier air with it. A strong
surface low will slide south across eastern WA and north ID Friday
night, bringing a good chance of precipitation to the eastern half
of the forecast area along with strong gusty southwest winds. Snow
levels will start out around 5k ft Friday evening then come
crashing down overnight. The bulk of the precip will fall as rain
in the valleys. By the time the cold air moves in, the low will be
over central Idaho with showers limited to the southeast zones.
The Camas Prairie may see some low end advisory snowfall but even
this amount is uncertain.

On Saturday the exiting low and building high pressure over
southern BC will set up a strong surface pressure gradient that
will channel northerly winds down the Okanogan Valley and Purcell
Trench and into the basin. This pattern shows the potential for
wind highlights and will continue to be monitored. Saturday
morning temperatures will likely be the high for the day as the
frigid air continues to march south across the area. The rest of
the weekend will continue the cold and dry trend with lows in the
single digits across the northern zones. Valley highs in the 20s
will be common.

Sunday night through Wednesday...The cold temperatures will start
to moderate as northerly winds are replaced by more westerly flow.
Model solutions diverge when it comes to moisture over the region.
The GFS wants to bring the surface boundary back north as a warm
front but the new run of the ECMWF brings a shortwave trough
across the northeast zones. No big changes made to the extended
forecast at this point other than to trend PoPs toward climo for
the end of the forecast period. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The region will remain in a stable pattern, especially
near the surface, with a few weak disturbances riding over in the
mid-levels. Abundant low level moisture will keep some low clouds
and fog across the Basin, with localized IFR cigs/vis around MWH.
This is expected to gradually improve toward 12-15Z. Patchier fog
or mist will be possible around the remaining TAF sites, but with
the incoming disturbance we are expecting MVFR/VFR conditions.
Some threat of showers will be found around GEG to COE, PUW and
LWS late overnight into Thursday, with the better chances closer
to the ID panhandle and about the mountains. Winds will pick up
through the day Thursday, with some gusts over 20kts possible.
Late Thursday evening there will the threat of MVFR/IFR cigs
returning over eastern TAF sites.

NOTE: the VIS sensor at EAT is out of service so amendments to
VIS are not scheduled. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        52  41  50  27  27  12 /  30  20  70  60  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  51  41  49  29  29  12 /  40  40  80  90  20  10
Pullman        54  43  53  32  32  16 /  30  30  90  90  50  10
Lewiston       56  46  56  38  38  23 /  20  20  60  70  60  20
Colville       50  40  47  22  22   7 /  50  40  70  60  10   0
Sandpoint      46  38  45  26  26   8 /  70  70  80  90  20  10
Kellogg        48  39  45  30  30  12 /  80  70  90 100  50  10
Moses Lake     56  41  56  27  27  12 /  10  20  30  30  10   0
Wenatchee      51  41  51  29  29  13 /  10  30  20  20  10   0
Omak           47  37  46  16  16   3 /  20  20  30  20  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM PST early this morning for
Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 270636
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1036 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected tonight and Thanksgiving with
areas of fog. Snow levels should rise above the mountain passes.
Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes should
experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: The next couple mid-level disturbances will be
passing tonight and Thursday, shaking things up a little bit. This
will mean some increased threat of precipitation especially
around the mountain areas, and more peripherally around the
eastern Columbia Basin southward.

The broad area of dense fog has begun to decrease in some areas,
such as the Spokane area and northeast mountain valleys. While
some pockets of dense fog are still possible, it is not expected
to be widespread enough and wind are expected to increase some
overnight into Thursday AM. So the dense fog advisory was allowed
to expire in that region. It was however expanded over some of the
Upper Columbia Basin, Waterville Plateau and Moses Lake zones
through the night. HRRR models suggest this too will erode from
the southeast between 06-12Z, with the help of some mixing with
that first mid-level wave. This will be monitored and may
potentially be extended should this decreasing trend not
materialize.

Temperatures have been wonky in some spots this evening. At the
Spokane International Airport the temperature was 36 degrees near
sunset, but at this hour warmed to around 42 degrees, owing to the
fog/lower clouds breaking up some and the winds increased a bit
and mixing some of the warmer air aloft down. The 00Z sounding
showed a modest to strong low level inversion which makes this
warming not too surprising. However overall the confidence in
precise overnight lows is not high. Numbers should remain steady
or fall a degree or two from where they are now though. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The region will remain in a stable pattern, especially
near the surface, with a few weak disturbances riding over in the
mid-levels. Abundant low level moisture will keep some low clouds
and fog across the Basin, with localized IFR cigs/vis around MWH.
This is expected to gradually improve toward 12-15Z. Patchier fog
or mist will be possible around the remaining TAF sites, but with
the incoming disturbance we are expecting MVFR/VFR conditions.
Some threat of showers will be found around GEG to COE, PUW and
LWS late overnight into Thursday, with the better chances closer
to the ID panhandle and about the mountains. Winds will pick up
through the day Thursday, with some gusts over 20kts possible.
Late Thursday evening there will the threat of MVFR/IFR cigs
returning over eastern TAF sites.

NOTE: the VIS sensor at EAT is out of service so amendments to
VIS are not scheduled. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  49  41  46  27  30 /  30  30  20  70  60  10
Coeur d`Alene  36  47  41  45  29  31 /  30  40  40  80  90  20
Pullman        44  52  43  49  32  34 /  20  30  30  90  90  50
Lewiston       43  55  46  53  38  40 /  10  10  20  60  70  60
Colville       36  45  40  43  22  24 /  60  50  50  70  60  10
Sandpoint      33  45  38  42  26  26 /  70  60  70  80  90  20
Kellogg        37  44  39  41  30  31 /  60  80  60  90 100  50
Moses Lake     38  52  41  51  27  31 /  10  10  20  30  30  10
Wenatchee      39  47  41  48  29  30 /  10  10  30  30  20  10
Omak           34  43  37  41  16  20 /  30  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM PST Thursday for Moses Lake Area-
     Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 270636
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1036 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected tonight and Thanksgiving with
areas of fog. Snow levels should rise above the mountain passes.
Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes should
experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: The next couple mid-level disturbances will be
passing tonight and Thursday, shaking things up a little bit. This
will mean some increased threat of precipitation especially
around the mountain areas, and more peripherally around the
eastern Columbia Basin southward.

The broad area of dense fog has begun to decrease in some areas,
such as the Spokane area and northeast mountain valleys. While
some pockets of dense fog are still possible, it is not expected
to be widespread enough and wind are expected to increase some
overnight into Thursday AM. So the dense fog advisory was allowed
to expire in that region. It was however expanded over some of the
Upper Columbia Basin, Waterville Plateau and Moses Lake zones
through the night. HRRR models suggest this too will erode from
the southeast between 06-12Z, with the help of some mixing with
that first mid-level wave. This will be monitored and may
potentially be extended should this decreasing trend not
materialize.

Temperatures have been wonky in some spots this evening. At the
Spokane International Airport the temperature was 36 degrees near
sunset, but at this hour warmed to around 42 degrees, owing to the
fog/lower clouds breaking up some and the winds increased a bit
and mixing some of the warmer air aloft down. The 00Z sounding
showed a modest to strong low level inversion which makes this
warming not too surprising. However overall the confidence in
precise overnight lows is not high. Numbers should remain steady
or fall a degree or two from where they are now though. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The region will remain in a stable pattern, especially
near the surface, with a few weak disturbances riding over in the
mid-levels. Abundant low level moisture will keep some low clouds
and fog across the Basin, with localized IFR cigs/vis around MWH.
This is expected to gradually improve toward 12-15Z. Patchier fog
or mist will be possible around the remaining TAF sites, but with
the incoming disturbance we are expecting MVFR/VFR conditions.
Some threat of showers will be found around GEG to COE, PUW and
LWS late overnight into Thursday, with the better chances closer
to the ID panhandle and about the mountains. Winds will pick up
through the day Thursday, with some gusts over 20kts possible.
Late Thursday evening there will the threat of MVFR/IFR cigs
returning over eastern TAF sites.

NOTE: the VIS sensor at EAT is out of service so amendments to
VIS are not scheduled. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  49  41  46  27  30 /  30  30  20  70  60  10
Coeur d`Alene  36  47  41  45  29  31 /  30  40  40  80  90  20
Pullman        44  52  43  49  32  34 /  20  30  30  90  90  50
Lewiston       43  55  46  53  38  40 /  10  10  20  60  70  60
Colville       36  45  40  43  22  24 /  60  50  50  70  60  10
Sandpoint      33  45  38  42  26  26 /  70  60  70  80  90  20
Kellogg        37  44  39  41  30  31 /  60  80  60  90 100  50
Moses Lake     38  52  41  51  27  31 /  10  10  20  30  30  10
Wenatchee      39  47  41  48  29  30 /  10  10  30  30  20  10
Omak           34  43  37  41  16  20 /  30  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM PST Thursday for Moses Lake Area-
     Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 270531
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT
FOR MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON
THANKSGIVING DAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THEN
CROSSES THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW. COOLER AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL COMBINE FOR COOL
DRY WEATHER AND MORE SUNSHINE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS IMPENDING FRONT
OFF THE COAST WITH TIMING ON FROPA REMAINING CONSISTENT...HITTING
THE COAST AROUND OR JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND OVER PUGET SOUND BEFORE
12Z/4 AM. OBSERVED WINDS CONTINUING TO RAMP UP IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING FRONT...THOUGH NOT QUITE HITTING ANTICIPATED LOW END
ADVISORY SPEEDS JUST YET. SOME LOCATIONS ON THE NORTH COAST AND
AROUND BLI ARE GETTING CLOSE. NO CHANGE IN EXPECTATION FOR WINDS TO
EASE ONCE THE FRONT PASSES LATE TONIGHT. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS
ACTIVITY ALONG THE CASCADES AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...LEAVING
PUGET SOUND AND EAST PUGET LOWLANDS MOSTLY DRY FOR NOW. WILL EXPECT
THAT HOLE TO FILL IN AS FRONT DRAWS CLOSER.

PICTURE FOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND REMAINS CONSISTENTLY WET. FOLLOWING
FROPA TONIGHT...MAY CATCH A SLIGHT BREAK BEFORE SECOND FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING CONTINUED
WET CONDITIONS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN
A PERIOD STRETCHING FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON RANGE
FROM AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE LOWLANDS AND 3 TO 6
INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES AND
OLYMPICS. THE EXCEPTION BEING UP TO 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL AROUND MT.
BAKER. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL IMPACT RIVERS
THAT HAVE ALREADY HIT FLOOD STAGE TODAY. EVEN THOUGH THESE RIVERS
ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD WITH REGARD TO FLOW/LEVELS...THIS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER PEAK IN FLOW/LEVELS FRIDAY. FOR
FURTHER DETAILS...REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THANKSGIVING
BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO COOL. AN INTERESTING FORECAST CONUNDRUM
ARISES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A DIPPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING COLDER AIR TO WESTERN WASHINGTON FRIDAY NIGHT...JUST AT THE
TAIL END OF PRECIP EVENT. GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THINGS MAY
LINE UP JUST ENOUGH FOR MIXED LOWLAND PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWLAND SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST RUN OF THE WRF GFS
4KM DOES NOT LOOK AS CONVINCING AS THE OTHER TWO MODELS. INHERITED
FORECAST HAS INCLUDED MENTIONS OF MIXED PRECIP AND SNOW FOR THIS
TIME FRAME AND WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER REEXAMINATION WITH FUTURE
MODEL RUNS. SMR

.LONG TERM...FROM 410 PM DISCUSSION...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH SETTLING
OVER B.C. ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW COLD FRASER RIVER VALLEY OUTFLOW TO
DEVELOP...BRINGING MORE COLD AIR DRY S OVER W WA. THE AIR MASS WILL
DRY OUT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20S
SUNDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. THE FRASER VALLEY
OUTFLOW WILL PROBABLY GENERATE ADVISORY LEVEL NE WINDS OVER WHATCOM
AND SAN JUAN COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE ECMWF HAS LEANED MORE CONSISTENTLY THAN THE GFS IN KEEPING A
COOL DRY PATTERN OVER W WA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST ECMWF
NOW KEEPS THE PATTERN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SYSTEM THAT GET CLOSE. THE GFS HAD BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
RAIN UP OVER THE ARE FROM THE S...BUT HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THIS ON
THE 12Z AND 18Z RUNS. IT MAY HAVE BEEN PREMATURE...BUT I HAVE DRIED
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS SHAKY BUT HOPE IT STAYS THAT WAY.
KAM

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FROM 410 PM DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT HELD HEAVIER
RAINFALL NORTH OF THE WA/BRITISH COLUMBIA BORDER TODAY. THIS IS
ALLOWING MOST RIVERS TO SLOWLY RECEDE ACROSS WRN WA. RAIN AMOUNTS UP
TO 5 INCHES SINCE MONDAY IN PLACES LIKE MOUNT RAINIER AND THE
SKYKOMISH-SNOQUALMIE-TOLT-SNOHOMISH BASIN WILL STILL CAUSE SOME
RESIDUAL FLOODING...MAINLY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING RENEWED RAINFALL TO WRN WA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...LOCALLY HEAVY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH
CASCADES WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN EXPECTED. 1 TO 2 INCHES MAY FALL IN THE CENTRAL CASCADES. THE
SNOW LEVEL WILL BE NEAR 7000 FEET.

A SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. MODELS VARY MUCH MORE ON THE DISTRIBUTION AND POTENTIAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM. IN
GENERAL...HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SHOULD
OCCUR ALONG S/SW FACING SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS AND N
CASCADES...ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL CASCADES COULD ALSO SEE HEAVY
PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE. THIS MEANS THE 36-48 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE OLYMPICS
AND CASCADES MAY REACH 4 TO 7 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE N CASCADES.

THESE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY DRIVE SEVERAL RIVERS TO FLOOD...ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD MAJOR FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY. AT HIGHEST RISK FOR
FLOODING IS THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN THE OLYMPICS...THE NOOKSACK AND
SKAGIT RIVERS IN THE NORTH...AND THE
STILLAGUAMISH...SNOQUALMIE...AND TOLT ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS. IF THE
HEAVIER RAIN SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THEN FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE
ON THE DESCHUTES RIVER AND THE REACH OF THE SKOOKUMCHUCK RIVER NEAR
BUCODA IN THURSTON COUNTY.

A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH INCLUDES ALL
THE COUNTIES WITH RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES
AND MASON COUNTY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FLOOD ON THE SKOKOMISH.

COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...SO RIVERS SHOULD
RECEDE AND THE FLOOD THREAT WILL END FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN IN INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN WA TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. CIGS ARE
MAINLY VFR THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD LOWER INTO MVFR RANGE OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST AND NORTH INTERIOR. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING THE COAST AND
MOUNTAINS. 33

KSEA...EXPECT RAIN AT TIMES TONIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR
RANGE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 20015G25KT EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. 33

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INLAND TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS OVER THE WATERS. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND THE
NORTHERN INLAND WATERS. A GALE WARNING WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR ADMIRALTY
INLET. WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BUT WILL STILL SEE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN
TIGHT THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH FROM
B.C. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER INTERIOR B.C. WILL BRING N/NE FRASER
RIVER OUTFLOW WINDS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL SUN AND MON WITH HIGH PRES EAST OF THE CASCADES. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
     WESTERN WASHINGTON.
     WIND ADVISORY NORTH COAST...WESTERN WHATCOM...SAN
     JUANS...ADMIRALTY INLET AREA.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR BAR FOR ROUGH BAR.
    .GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES STRAIT OF JUAN DE
     FUCA...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...ADMIRALTY INLET.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 270531
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT
FOR MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON
THANKSGIVING DAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THEN
CROSSES THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW. COOLER AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL COMBINE FOR COOL
DRY WEATHER AND MORE SUNSHINE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS IMPENDING FRONT
OFF THE COAST WITH TIMING ON FROPA REMAINING CONSISTENT...HITTING
THE COAST AROUND OR JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND OVER PUGET SOUND BEFORE
12Z/4 AM. OBSERVED WINDS CONTINUING TO RAMP UP IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING FRONT...THOUGH NOT QUITE HITTING ANTICIPATED LOW END
ADVISORY SPEEDS JUST YET. SOME LOCATIONS ON THE NORTH COAST AND
AROUND BLI ARE GETTING CLOSE. NO CHANGE IN EXPECTATION FOR WINDS TO
EASE ONCE THE FRONT PASSES LATE TONIGHT. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS
ACTIVITY ALONG THE CASCADES AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...LEAVING
PUGET SOUND AND EAST PUGET LOWLANDS MOSTLY DRY FOR NOW. WILL EXPECT
THAT HOLE TO FILL IN AS FRONT DRAWS CLOSER.

PICTURE FOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND REMAINS CONSISTENTLY WET. FOLLOWING
FROPA TONIGHT...MAY CATCH A SLIGHT BREAK BEFORE SECOND FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING CONTINUED
WET CONDITIONS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN
A PERIOD STRETCHING FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON RANGE
FROM AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE LOWLANDS AND 3 TO 6
INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES AND
OLYMPICS. THE EXCEPTION BEING UP TO 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL AROUND MT.
BAKER. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL IMPACT RIVERS
THAT HAVE ALREADY HIT FLOOD STAGE TODAY. EVEN THOUGH THESE RIVERS
ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD WITH REGARD TO FLOW/LEVELS...THIS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER PEAK IN FLOW/LEVELS FRIDAY. FOR
FURTHER DETAILS...REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THANKSGIVING
BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO COOL. AN INTERESTING FORECAST CONUNDRUM
ARISES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A DIPPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING COLDER AIR TO WESTERN WASHINGTON FRIDAY NIGHT...JUST AT THE
TAIL END OF PRECIP EVENT. GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THINGS MAY
LINE UP JUST ENOUGH FOR MIXED LOWLAND PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWLAND SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST RUN OF THE WRF GFS
4KM DOES NOT LOOK AS CONVINCING AS THE OTHER TWO MODELS. INHERITED
FORECAST HAS INCLUDED MENTIONS OF MIXED PRECIP AND SNOW FOR THIS
TIME FRAME AND WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER REEXAMINATION WITH FUTURE
MODEL RUNS. SMR

.LONG TERM...FROM 410 PM DISCUSSION...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH SETTLING
OVER B.C. ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW COLD FRASER RIVER VALLEY OUTFLOW TO
DEVELOP...BRINGING MORE COLD AIR DRY S OVER W WA. THE AIR MASS WILL
DRY OUT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20S
SUNDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. THE FRASER VALLEY
OUTFLOW WILL PROBABLY GENERATE ADVISORY LEVEL NE WINDS OVER WHATCOM
AND SAN JUAN COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE ECMWF HAS LEANED MORE CONSISTENTLY THAN THE GFS IN KEEPING A
COOL DRY PATTERN OVER W WA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST ECMWF
NOW KEEPS THE PATTERN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SYSTEM THAT GET CLOSE. THE GFS HAD BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
RAIN UP OVER THE ARE FROM THE S...BUT HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THIS ON
THE 12Z AND 18Z RUNS. IT MAY HAVE BEEN PREMATURE...BUT I HAVE DRIED
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS SHAKY BUT HOPE IT STAYS THAT WAY.
KAM

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FROM 410 PM DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT HELD HEAVIER
RAINFALL NORTH OF THE WA/BRITISH COLUMBIA BORDER TODAY. THIS IS
ALLOWING MOST RIVERS TO SLOWLY RECEDE ACROSS WRN WA. RAIN AMOUNTS UP
TO 5 INCHES SINCE MONDAY IN PLACES LIKE MOUNT RAINIER AND THE
SKYKOMISH-SNOQUALMIE-TOLT-SNOHOMISH BASIN WILL STILL CAUSE SOME
RESIDUAL FLOODING...MAINLY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING RENEWED RAINFALL TO WRN WA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...LOCALLY HEAVY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH
CASCADES WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN EXPECTED. 1 TO 2 INCHES MAY FALL IN THE CENTRAL CASCADES. THE
SNOW LEVEL WILL BE NEAR 7000 FEET.

A SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. MODELS VARY MUCH MORE ON THE DISTRIBUTION AND POTENTIAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM. IN
GENERAL...HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SHOULD
OCCUR ALONG S/SW FACING SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS AND N
CASCADES...ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL CASCADES COULD ALSO SEE HEAVY
PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE. THIS MEANS THE 36-48 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE OLYMPICS
AND CASCADES MAY REACH 4 TO 7 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE N CASCADES.

THESE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY DRIVE SEVERAL RIVERS TO FLOOD...ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD MAJOR FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY. AT HIGHEST RISK FOR
FLOODING IS THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN THE OLYMPICS...THE NOOKSACK AND
SKAGIT RIVERS IN THE NORTH...AND THE
STILLAGUAMISH...SNOQUALMIE...AND TOLT ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS. IF THE
HEAVIER RAIN SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THEN FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE
ON THE DESCHUTES RIVER AND THE REACH OF THE SKOOKUMCHUCK RIVER NEAR
BUCODA IN THURSTON COUNTY.

A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH INCLUDES ALL
THE COUNTIES WITH RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES
AND MASON COUNTY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FLOOD ON THE SKOKOMISH.

COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...SO RIVERS SHOULD
RECEDE AND THE FLOOD THREAT WILL END FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN IN INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN WA TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. CIGS ARE
MAINLY VFR THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD LOWER INTO MVFR RANGE OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST AND NORTH INTERIOR. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING THE COAST AND
MOUNTAINS. 33

KSEA...EXPECT RAIN AT TIMES TONIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR
RANGE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 20015G25KT EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. 33

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INLAND TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS OVER THE WATERS. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND THE
NORTHERN INLAND WATERS. A GALE WARNING WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR ADMIRALTY
INLET. WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BUT WILL STILL SEE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN
TIGHT THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH FROM
B.C. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER INTERIOR B.C. WILL BRING N/NE FRASER
RIVER OUTFLOW WINDS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL SUN AND MON WITH HIGH PRES EAST OF THE CASCADES. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
     WESTERN WASHINGTON.
     WIND ADVISORY NORTH COAST...WESTERN WHATCOM...SAN
     JUANS...ADMIRALTY INLET AREA.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR BAR FOR ROUGH BAR.
    .GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES STRAIT OF JUAN DE
     FUCA...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...ADMIRALTY INLET.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 270531
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT
FOR MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON
THANKSGIVING DAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THEN
CROSSES THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW. COOLER AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL COMBINE FOR COOL
DRY WEATHER AND MORE SUNSHINE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS IMPENDING FRONT
OFF THE COAST WITH TIMING ON FROPA REMAINING CONSISTENT...HITTING
THE COAST AROUND OR JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND OVER PUGET SOUND BEFORE
12Z/4 AM. OBSERVED WINDS CONTINUING TO RAMP UP IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING FRONT...THOUGH NOT QUITE HITTING ANTICIPATED LOW END
ADVISORY SPEEDS JUST YET. SOME LOCATIONS ON THE NORTH COAST AND
AROUND BLI ARE GETTING CLOSE. NO CHANGE IN EXPECTATION FOR WINDS TO
EASE ONCE THE FRONT PASSES LATE TONIGHT. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS
ACTIVITY ALONG THE CASCADES AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...LEAVING
PUGET SOUND AND EAST PUGET LOWLANDS MOSTLY DRY FOR NOW. WILL EXPECT
THAT HOLE TO FILL IN AS FRONT DRAWS CLOSER.

PICTURE FOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND REMAINS CONSISTENTLY WET. FOLLOWING
FROPA TONIGHT...MAY CATCH A SLIGHT BREAK BEFORE SECOND FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING CONTINUED
WET CONDITIONS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN
A PERIOD STRETCHING FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON RANGE
FROM AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE LOWLANDS AND 3 TO 6
INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES AND
OLYMPICS. THE EXCEPTION BEING UP TO 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL AROUND MT.
BAKER. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL IMPACT RIVERS
THAT HAVE ALREADY HIT FLOOD STAGE TODAY. EVEN THOUGH THESE RIVERS
ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD WITH REGARD TO FLOW/LEVELS...THIS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER PEAK IN FLOW/LEVELS FRIDAY. FOR
FURTHER DETAILS...REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THANKSGIVING
BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO COOL. AN INTERESTING FORECAST CONUNDRUM
ARISES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A DIPPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING COLDER AIR TO WESTERN WASHINGTON FRIDAY NIGHT...JUST AT THE
TAIL END OF PRECIP EVENT. GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THINGS MAY
LINE UP JUST ENOUGH FOR MIXED LOWLAND PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWLAND SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST RUN OF THE WRF GFS
4KM DOES NOT LOOK AS CONVINCING AS THE OTHER TWO MODELS. INHERITED
FORECAST HAS INCLUDED MENTIONS OF MIXED PRECIP AND SNOW FOR THIS
TIME FRAME AND WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER REEXAMINATION WITH FUTURE
MODEL RUNS. SMR

.LONG TERM...FROM 410 PM DISCUSSION...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH SETTLING
OVER B.C. ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW COLD FRASER RIVER VALLEY OUTFLOW TO
DEVELOP...BRINGING MORE COLD AIR DRY S OVER W WA. THE AIR MASS WILL
DRY OUT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20S
SUNDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. THE FRASER VALLEY
OUTFLOW WILL PROBABLY GENERATE ADVISORY LEVEL NE WINDS OVER WHATCOM
AND SAN JUAN COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE ECMWF HAS LEANED MORE CONSISTENTLY THAN THE GFS IN KEEPING A
COOL DRY PATTERN OVER W WA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST ECMWF
NOW KEEPS THE PATTERN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SYSTEM THAT GET CLOSE. THE GFS HAD BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
RAIN UP OVER THE ARE FROM THE S...BUT HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THIS ON
THE 12Z AND 18Z RUNS. IT MAY HAVE BEEN PREMATURE...BUT I HAVE DRIED
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS SHAKY BUT HOPE IT STAYS THAT WAY.
KAM

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FROM 410 PM DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT HELD HEAVIER
RAINFALL NORTH OF THE WA/BRITISH COLUMBIA BORDER TODAY. THIS IS
ALLOWING MOST RIVERS TO SLOWLY RECEDE ACROSS WRN WA. RAIN AMOUNTS UP
TO 5 INCHES SINCE MONDAY IN PLACES LIKE MOUNT RAINIER AND THE
SKYKOMISH-SNOQUALMIE-TOLT-SNOHOMISH BASIN WILL STILL CAUSE SOME
RESIDUAL FLOODING...MAINLY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING RENEWED RAINFALL TO WRN WA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...LOCALLY HEAVY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH
CASCADES WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN EXPECTED. 1 TO 2 INCHES MAY FALL IN THE CENTRAL CASCADES. THE
SNOW LEVEL WILL BE NEAR 7000 FEET.

A SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. MODELS VARY MUCH MORE ON THE DISTRIBUTION AND POTENTIAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM. IN
GENERAL...HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SHOULD
OCCUR ALONG S/SW FACING SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS AND N
CASCADES...ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL CASCADES COULD ALSO SEE HEAVY
PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE. THIS MEANS THE 36-48 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE OLYMPICS
AND CASCADES MAY REACH 4 TO 7 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE N CASCADES.

THESE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY DRIVE SEVERAL RIVERS TO FLOOD...ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD MAJOR FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY. AT HIGHEST RISK FOR
FLOODING IS THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN THE OLYMPICS...THE NOOKSACK AND
SKAGIT RIVERS IN THE NORTH...AND THE
STILLAGUAMISH...SNOQUALMIE...AND TOLT ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS. IF THE
HEAVIER RAIN SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THEN FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE
ON THE DESCHUTES RIVER AND THE REACH OF THE SKOOKUMCHUCK RIVER NEAR
BUCODA IN THURSTON COUNTY.

A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH INCLUDES ALL
THE COUNTIES WITH RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES
AND MASON COUNTY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FLOOD ON THE SKOKOMISH.

COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...SO RIVERS SHOULD
RECEDE AND THE FLOOD THREAT WILL END FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN IN INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN WA TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. CIGS ARE
MAINLY VFR THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD LOWER INTO MVFR RANGE OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST AND NORTH INTERIOR. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING THE COAST AND
MOUNTAINS. 33

KSEA...EXPECT RAIN AT TIMES TONIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR
RANGE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 20015G25KT EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. 33

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INLAND TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS OVER THE WATERS. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND THE
NORTHERN INLAND WATERS. A GALE WARNING WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR ADMIRALTY
INLET. WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BUT WILL STILL SEE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN
TIGHT THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH FROM
B.C. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER INTERIOR B.C. WILL BRING N/NE FRASER
RIVER OUTFLOW WINDS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL SUN AND MON WITH HIGH PRES EAST OF THE CASCADES. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
     WESTERN WASHINGTON.
     WIND ADVISORY NORTH COAST...WESTERN WHATCOM...SAN
     JUANS...ADMIRALTY INLET AREA.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR BAR FOR ROUGH BAR.
    .GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES STRAIT OF JUAN DE
     FUCA...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...ADMIRALTY INLET.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 270531
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT
FOR MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON
THANKSGIVING DAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THEN
CROSSES THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW. COOLER AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL COMBINE FOR COOL
DRY WEATHER AND MORE SUNSHINE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS IMPENDING FRONT
OFF THE COAST WITH TIMING ON FROPA REMAINING CONSISTENT...HITTING
THE COAST AROUND OR JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND OVER PUGET SOUND BEFORE
12Z/4 AM. OBSERVED WINDS CONTINUING TO RAMP UP IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING FRONT...THOUGH NOT QUITE HITTING ANTICIPATED LOW END
ADVISORY SPEEDS JUST YET. SOME LOCATIONS ON THE NORTH COAST AND
AROUND BLI ARE GETTING CLOSE. NO CHANGE IN EXPECTATION FOR WINDS TO
EASE ONCE THE FRONT PASSES LATE TONIGHT. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS
ACTIVITY ALONG THE CASCADES AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...LEAVING
PUGET SOUND AND EAST PUGET LOWLANDS MOSTLY DRY FOR NOW. WILL EXPECT
THAT HOLE TO FILL IN AS FRONT DRAWS CLOSER.

PICTURE FOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND REMAINS CONSISTENTLY WET. FOLLOWING
FROPA TONIGHT...MAY CATCH A SLIGHT BREAK BEFORE SECOND FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING CONTINUED
WET CONDITIONS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN
A PERIOD STRETCHING FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON RANGE
FROM AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE LOWLANDS AND 3 TO 6
INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES AND
OLYMPICS. THE EXCEPTION BEING UP TO 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL AROUND MT.
BAKER. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL IMPACT RIVERS
THAT HAVE ALREADY HIT FLOOD STAGE TODAY. EVEN THOUGH THESE RIVERS
ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD WITH REGARD TO FLOW/LEVELS...THIS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER PEAK IN FLOW/LEVELS FRIDAY. FOR
FURTHER DETAILS...REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THANKSGIVING
BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO COOL. AN INTERESTING FORECAST CONUNDRUM
ARISES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A DIPPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING COLDER AIR TO WESTERN WASHINGTON FRIDAY NIGHT...JUST AT THE
TAIL END OF PRECIP EVENT. GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THINGS MAY
LINE UP JUST ENOUGH FOR MIXED LOWLAND PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWLAND SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST RUN OF THE WRF GFS
4KM DOES NOT LOOK AS CONVINCING AS THE OTHER TWO MODELS. INHERITED
FORECAST HAS INCLUDED MENTIONS OF MIXED PRECIP AND SNOW FOR THIS
TIME FRAME AND WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER REEXAMINATION WITH FUTURE
MODEL RUNS. SMR

.LONG TERM...FROM 410 PM DISCUSSION...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH SETTLING
OVER B.C. ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW COLD FRASER RIVER VALLEY OUTFLOW TO
DEVELOP...BRINGING MORE COLD AIR DRY S OVER W WA. THE AIR MASS WILL
DRY OUT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20S
SUNDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. THE FRASER VALLEY
OUTFLOW WILL PROBABLY GENERATE ADVISORY LEVEL NE WINDS OVER WHATCOM
AND SAN JUAN COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE ECMWF HAS LEANED MORE CONSISTENTLY THAN THE GFS IN KEEPING A
COOL DRY PATTERN OVER W WA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST ECMWF
NOW KEEPS THE PATTERN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SYSTEM THAT GET CLOSE. THE GFS HAD BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
RAIN UP OVER THE ARE FROM THE S...BUT HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THIS ON
THE 12Z AND 18Z RUNS. IT MAY HAVE BEEN PREMATURE...BUT I HAVE DRIED
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS SHAKY BUT HOPE IT STAYS THAT WAY.
KAM

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FROM 410 PM DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT HELD HEAVIER
RAINFALL NORTH OF THE WA/BRITISH COLUMBIA BORDER TODAY. THIS IS
ALLOWING MOST RIVERS TO SLOWLY RECEDE ACROSS WRN WA. RAIN AMOUNTS UP
TO 5 INCHES SINCE MONDAY IN PLACES LIKE MOUNT RAINIER AND THE
SKYKOMISH-SNOQUALMIE-TOLT-SNOHOMISH BASIN WILL STILL CAUSE SOME
RESIDUAL FLOODING...MAINLY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING RENEWED RAINFALL TO WRN WA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...LOCALLY HEAVY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH
CASCADES WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN EXPECTED. 1 TO 2 INCHES MAY FALL IN THE CENTRAL CASCADES. THE
SNOW LEVEL WILL BE NEAR 7000 FEET.

A SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. MODELS VARY MUCH MORE ON THE DISTRIBUTION AND POTENTIAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM. IN
GENERAL...HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SHOULD
OCCUR ALONG S/SW FACING SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS AND N
CASCADES...ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL CASCADES COULD ALSO SEE HEAVY
PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE. THIS MEANS THE 36-48 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE OLYMPICS
AND CASCADES MAY REACH 4 TO 7 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE N CASCADES.

THESE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY DRIVE SEVERAL RIVERS TO FLOOD...ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD MAJOR FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY. AT HIGHEST RISK FOR
FLOODING IS THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN THE OLYMPICS...THE NOOKSACK AND
SKAGIT RIVERS IN THE NORTH...AND THE
STILLAGUAMISH...SNOQUALMIE...AND TOLT ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS. IF THE
HEAVIER RAIN SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THEN FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE
ON THE DESCHUTES RIVER AND THE REACH OF THE SKOOKUMCHUCK RIVER NEAR
BUCODA IN THURSTON COUNTY.

A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH INCLUDES ALL
THE COUNTIES WITH RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES
AND MASON COUNTY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FLOOD ON THE SKOKOMISH.

COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...SO RIVERS SHOULD
RECEDE AND THE FLOOD THREAT WILL END FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN IN INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN WA TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. CIGS ARE
MAINLY VFR THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD LOWER INTO MVFR RANGE OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST AND NORTH INTERIOR. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING THE COAST AND
MOUNTAINS. 33

KSEA...EXPECT RAIN AT TIMES TONIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR
RANGE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 20015G25KT EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. 33

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INLAND TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS OVER THE WATERS. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND THE
NORTHERN INLAND WATERS. A GALE WARNING WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR ADMIRALTY
INLET. WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BUT WILL STILL SEE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN
TIGHT THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH FROM
B.C. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER INTERIOR B.C. WILL BRING N/NE FRASER
RIVER OUTFLOW WINDS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL SUN AND MON WITH HIGH PRES EAST OF THE CASCADES. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
     WESTERN WASHINGTON.
     WIND ADVISORY NORTH COAST...WESTERN WHATCOM...SAN
     JUANS...ADMIRALTY INLET AREA.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR BAR FOR ROUGH BAR.
    .GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES STRAIT OF JUAN DE
     FUCA...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...ADMIRALTY INLET.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
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000
FXUS66 KPQR 270512
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
901 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY INLAND TONIGHT AND
EARLY THU. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER WESTERN OREGON THU NIGHT
AND FRI...BEFORE ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S THROUGH THE
REGION FRI NIGHT USHERING COLDER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRES
OVER THE INTERIOR NW WILL TURN THE FLOW OFFSHORE BY SUN FOR DRY BUT
COLD WEATHER. SUN NIGHT AND MON A SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE S WILL
ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION UP OVER THE COLD AIR MASS LEFT
OVER FROM THE WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...NWS DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO
SPREAD ONSHORE ACROSS THE REGION...THROUGH OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN LIMITED THUS FAR...GENERALLY
ONLY A TRACE OR FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. FORECAST REMAINS
GENERALLY ON TRACK...BUT INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PER RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
THE FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS SOMEWHAT DISJOINTED IN
APPEARANCE AND EXPECT RAINFALL TO BE INITIALLY LIGHT FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE INCREASING LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM MAY SPLIT N AND S...LEAVING
MANY PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN FROM MIDDAY
THU THROUGH THU EVENING. ALSO NUDGED FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES LOWER IN LINE WITH OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.
CULLEN
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS OFFSHORE WED AFTERNOON...WITH
LAYERED CLOUDS SPREAD OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SHIFTS E TONIGHT AND THU THE FLOW
WILL TURN MORE TO THE SW...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AGREE IN SHOWING MOISTURE INITIALLY IN THEMID AND
HIGH LEVELS...ABOVE 700MB. BY LATE TONIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO
SPREAD IN IN THE LOWER LEVELS. DYNAMICS WITH THIS FRONT HOWEVER ON
THE WEAK SIDE...SO WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT INLAND
AREAS...WHILE THE COAST AND COAST RANGE WILL BENEFIT FROM AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SSW FLOW. WITH CLOUDS LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE AREA STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR...
SHOULD BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT. THU THE FRONT APPEARS TO
STALL OVER THE REGION AS THE LOW OFFSHORE DIGS IN A BIT MORE. WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED AND LOW LEVEL FLOW A LITTLE MORE ONSHORE
WILL TAKE POPS BACK UP TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS ONLY MODEST COOLING TO AIR MASS WITH THE
FRONT...CLOUDS AND EXPECTED OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL LIMIT HIGH
TEMPS TO THE 50S MOST LOW ELEVATION AREAS.

LATE THU NIGHT...AND ESP FRI BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES AS A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THROUGH BC WITH A TRUE COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN THE COAST AHEAD OF IT. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS IMPROVES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL...BEST
DEPICTED IN MODEL 290K ISENTROPIC FIELDS. AS SUCH...POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN PICKS UP CONSIDERABLY BY FRI.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING THE WESTERN
CANADIAN TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO THE PACIFIC NW STATES FRI NIGHT
AND SAT. ALL MODELS AT THIS POINT SHOWING A VIGOROUS CONTINENTAL
TYPE COLD FRONT MOVING S THROUGH SW WA AND NW OREGON FRI NIGHT.
PATTERN IS REMINISCENT OF A COLD FRONT FROM BACK ON 19 NOVEMBER 2003
THAT BROUGHT LOW ELEVATION SNOW TO INTERIOR N PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. KEYS TO DOING SOMETHING SIMILAR RELY ON SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL AS STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO ALLOW FOR DYNAMIC COOLING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
AT THIS POINT INDICATE SNOW LEVEL FALLING RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT
FRI NIGHT SUGGESTING AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN
TO FAIRLY LOW LEVELS. WHETHER IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO MIX SNOW AT
LOWEST ELEVATIONS IS ANYBODYS GUESS AT THIS POINT...BUT GIVEN THE
AGREEMENT IN MODELS AT THIS POINT WILL CARRY A MENTION OF MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE N PART OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. SAT SEES A
RATHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH A LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN
THE N...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR SATURDAYS MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES SAT NIGHT...
WITH ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS COMING TO END OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME
CLEARING SAT NIGHT AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WITH LOW TEMPS LIKELY GETTING WELL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
SPOTS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE CASCADES...
EXPECT STRONG EAST WINDS TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE GORGE SUNDAY MORNING
AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS SPILLING INTO THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. MONDAY MAY BE
A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WINDS AS A SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH.

MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE FROM THE ALEUTIANS IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF
FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC JET AND SETTLE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THERE IS A
CHANCE THIS SYSTEM COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPREAD SOME PRECIP
NORTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT OR MON. THE 12Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF. IF
THIS OCCURS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
GORGE. CUTOFF LOWS SUCH AS THIS ONE ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST...AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THEM IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WHERE THIS UPPER LOW GOES WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONTINUES FOR NOW EXCEPT FOR KAST WHERE PASSING
RAIN BANDS HAVE BRIEFLY LOWERED THE CIGS TO AROUND 029. EXPECT THE
OVERALL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE DETERIORATING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS THE OFFSHORE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. EVEN THEN
LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT TERRIBLY PESSIMISTIC WITH FLIGHT
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RADAR BACKS THIS
UP AS RETURNS ARE FAIRLY DISJOINTED IMPLYING A LACK OF
ORGANIZATION. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGES INTENT
OF SHOWING A LOWER AND WEAKLY CONVECTIVE DECK AFTER THE FRONT AND
LASTING THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY. THIS APPEARS TO RESULT IN IFR
CIGS AT THE COAST AND MVFR CIGS AROUND 020 INLAND.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THU WITH VISUAL APPROACHED BECOMING IMPACTED SHORTLY
THEREAFTER AS THE DECK LOWERS BEYOND 040. WILL LIKELY SEE CIGS
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 020 CLOSER TO 18Z WITH LITTLE LIFT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL CALENDAR DAY. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE BEEN UNDER PERFORMING THUS FAR TONIGHT WITH
THE HRRR MODEL HAVING AS GOOD OF A HANDLE AS ANYTHING. DO EXPECT
COASTAL JET ENHANCEMENT AS THE FRONT NEARS TONIGHT BUT LAST FEW
RUNS OF THE HRRR ONLY INDICATE A VERY MARGINAL GALE GUST SCENARIO
FROM ABOUT 15 NM OUT TOWARDS SHORE. BEST WINDS WILL STAY WELL
ELEVATED OFF THE WATER SURFACE AS BROAD ATMOSPHERIC LIFT IS NOT
SUPPORTING THE HIGHER SPEEDS GETTING MIXED TO THE SURFACE. WILL
MAINTAIN THE GALE WARNING SINCE IT HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.

BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS PERSIST
THU MORNING. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW 20-25 KT NW-N WIND DEVELOPING
OVER THE N WATERS FRI EVENING THEN SPREADING FURTHER S OVERNIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE WIND TURNS
OFFSHORE SAT WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS 20 TO 30 KT NEAR GAPS IN THE
COASTAL TERRAIN. WIND SPEEDS RELAX SUN.

SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 FT THIS EVENING THEN REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH AT LEAST SAT MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF
SAT AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. JBONK/WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
     PST THURSDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 270512
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
901 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY INLAND TONIGHT AND
EARLY THU. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER WESTERN OREGON THU NIGHT
AND FRI...BEFORE ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S THROUGH THE
REGION FRI NIGHT USHERING COLDER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRES
OVER THE INTERIOR NW WILL TURN THE FLOW OFFSHORE BY SUN FOR DRY BUT
COLD WEATHER. SUN NIGHT AND MON A SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE S WILL
ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION UP OVER THE COLD AIR MASS LEFT
OVER FROM THE WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...NWS DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO
SPREAD ONSHORE ACROSS THE REGION...THROUGH OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN LIMITED THUS FAR...GENERALLY
ONLY A TRACE OR FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. FORECAST REMAINS
GENERALLY ON TRACK...BUT INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PER RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
THE FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS SOMEWHAT DISJOINTED IN
APPEARANCE AND EXPECT RAINFALL TO BE INITIALLY LIGHT FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE INCREASING LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM MAY SPLIT N AND S...LEAVING
MANY PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN FROM MIDDAY
THU THROUGH THU EVENING. ALSO NUDGED FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES LOWER IN LINE WITH OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.
CULLEN
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS OFFSHORE WED AFTERNOON...WITH
LAYERED CLOUDS SPREAD OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SHIFTS E TONIGHT AND THU THE FLOW
WILL TURN MORE TO THE SW...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AGREE IN SHOWING MOISTURE INITIALLY IN THEMID AND
HIGH LEVELS...ABOVE 700MB. BY LATE TONIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO
SPREAD IN IN THE LOWER LEVELS. DYNAMICS WITH THIS FRONT HOWEVER ON
THE WEAK SIDE...SO WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT INLAND
AREAS...WHILE THE COAST AND COAST RANGE WILL BENEFIT FROM AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SSW FLOW. WITH CLOUDS LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE AREA STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR...
SHOULD BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT. THU THE FRONT APPEARS TO
STALL OVER THE REGION AS THE LOW OFFSHORE DIGS IN A BIT MORE. WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED AND LOW LEVEL FLOW A LITTLE MORE ONSHORE
WILL TAKE POPS BACK UP TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS ONLY MODEST COOLING TO AIR MASS WITH THE
FRONT...CLOUDS AND EXPECTED OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL LIMIT HIGH
TEMPS TO THE 50S MOST LOW ELEVATION AREAS.

LATE THU NIGHT...AND ESP FRI BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES AS A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THROUGH BC WITH A TRUE COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN THE COAST AHEAD OF IT. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS IMPROVES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL...BEST
DEPICTED IN MODEL 290K ISENTROPIC FIELDS. AS SUCH...POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN PICKS UP CONSIDERABLY BY FRI.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING THE WESTERN
CANADIAN TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO THE PACIFIC NW STATES FRI NIGHT
AND SAT. ALL MODELS AT THIS POINT SHOWING A VIGOROUS CONTINENTAL
TYPE COLD FRONT MOVING S THROUGH SW WA AND NW OREGON FRI NIGHT.
PATTERN IS REMINISCENT OF A COLD FRONT FROM BACK ON 19 NOVEMBER 2003
THAT BROUGHT LOW ELEVATION SNOW TO INTERIOR N PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. KEYS TO DOING SOMETHING SIMILAR RELY ON SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL AS STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO ALLOW FOR DYNAMIC COOLING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
AT THIS POINT INDICATE SNOW LEVEL FALLING RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT
FRI NIGHT SUGGESTING AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN
TO FAIRLY LOW LEVELS. WHETHER IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO MIX SNOW AT
LOWEST ELEVATIONS IS ANYBODYS GUESS AT THIS POINT...BUT GIVEN THE
AGREEMENT IN MODELS AT THIS POINT WILL CARRY A MENTION OF MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE N PART OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. SAT SEES A
RATHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH A LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN
THE N...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR SATURDAYS MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES SAT NIGHT...
WITH ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS COMING TO END OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME
CLEARING SAT NIGHT AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WITH LOW TEMPS LIKELY GETTING WELL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
SPOTS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE CASCADES...
EXPECT STRONG EAST WINDS TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE GORGE SUNDAY MORNING
AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS SPILLING INTO THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. MONDAY MAY BE
A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WINDS AS A SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH.

MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE FROM THE ALEUTIANS IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF
FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC JET AND SETTLE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THERE IS A
CHANCE THIS SYSTEM COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPREAD SOME PRECIP
NORTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT OR MON. THE 12Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF. IF
THIS OCCURS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
GORGE. CUTOFF LOWS SUCH AS THIS ONE ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST...AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THEM IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WHERE THIS UPPER LOW GOES WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONTINUES FOR NOW EXCEPT FOR KAST WHERE PASSING
RAIN BANDS HAVE BRIEFLY LOWERED THE CIGS TO AROUND 029. EXPECT THE
OVERALL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE DETERIORATING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS THE OFFSHORE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. EVEN THEN
LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT TERRIBLY PESSIMISTIC WITH FLIGHT
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RADAR BACKS THIS
UP AS RETURNS ARE FAIRLY DISJOINTED IMPLYING A LACK OF
ORGANIZATION. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGES INTENT
OF SHOWING A LOWER AND WEAKLY CONVECTIVE DECK AFTER THE FRONT AND
LASTING THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY. THIS APPEARS TO RESULT IN IFR
CIGS AT THE COAST AND MVFR CIGS AROUND 020 INLAND.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THU WITH VISUAL APPROACHED BECOMING IMPACTED SHORTLY
THEREAFTER AS THE DECK LOWERS BEYOND 040. WILL LIKELY SEE CIGS
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 020 CLOSER TO 18Z WITH LITTLE LIFT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL CALENDAR DAY. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE BEEN UNDER PERFORMING THUS FAR TONIGHT WITH
THE HRRR MODEL HAVING AS GOOD OF A HANDLE AS ANYTHING. DO EXPECT
COASTAL JET ENHANCEMENT AS THE FRONT NEARS TONIGHT BUT LAST FEW
RUNS OF THE HRRR ONLY INDICATE A VERY MARGINAL GALE GUST SCENARIO
FROM ABOUT 15 NM OUT TOWARDS SHORE. BEST WINDS WILL STAY WELL
ELEVATED OFF THE WATER SURFACE AS BROAD ATMOSPHERIC LIFT IS NOT
SUPPORTING THE HIGHER SPEEDS GETTING MIXED TO THE SURFACE. WILL
MAINTAIN THE GALE WARNING SINCE IT HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.

BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS PERSIST
THU MORNING. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW 20-25 KT NW-N WIND DEVELOPING
OVER THE N WATERS FRI EVENING THEN SPREADING FURTHER S OVERNIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE WIND TURNS
OFFSHORE SAT WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS 20 TO 30 KT NEAR GAPS IN THE
COASTAL TERRAIN. WIND SPEEDS RELAX SUN.

SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 FT THIS EVENING THEN REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH AT LEAST SAT MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF
SAT AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. JBONK/WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
     PST THURSDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 270512
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
901 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY INLAND TONIGHT AND
EARLY THU. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER WESTERN OREGON THU NIGHT
AND FRI...BEFORE ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S THROUGH THE
REGION FRI NIGHT USHERING COLDER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRES
OVER THE INTERIOR NW WILL TURN THE FLOW OFFSHORE BY SUN FOR DRY BUT
COLD WEATHER. SUN NIGHT AND MON A SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE S WILL
ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION UP OVER THE COLD AIR MASS LEFT
OVER FROM THE WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...NWS DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO
SPREAD ONSHORE ACROSS THE REGION...THROUGH OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN LIMITED THUS FAR...GENERALLY
ONLY A TRACE OR FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. FORECAST REMAINS
GENERALLY ON TRACK...BUT INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PER RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
THE FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS SOMEWHAT DISJOINTED IN
APPEARANCE AND EXPECT RAINFALL TO BE INITIALLY LIGHT FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE INCREASING LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM MAY SPLIT N AND S...LEAVING
MANY PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN FROM MIDDAY
THU THROUGH THU EVENING. ALSO NUDGED FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES LOWER IN LINE WITH OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.
CULLEN
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS OFFSHORE WED AFTERNOON...WITH
LAYERED CLOUDS SPREAD OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SHIFTS E TONIGHT AND THU THE FLOW
WILL TURN MORE TO THE SW...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AGREE IN SHOWING MOISTURE INITIALLY IN THEMID AND
HIGH LEVELS...ABOVE 700MB. BY LATE TONIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO
SPREAD IN IN THE LOWER LEVELS. DYNAMICS WITH THIS FRONT HOWEVER ON
THE WEAK SIDE...SO WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT INLAND
AREAS...WHILE THE COAST AND COAST RANGE WILL BENEFIT FROM AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SSW FLOW. WITH CLOUDS LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE AREA STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR...
SHOULD BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT. THU THE FRONT APPEARS TO
STALL OVER THE REGION AS THE LOW OFFSHORE DIGS IN A BIT MORE. WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED AND LOW LEVEL FLOW A LITTLE MORE ONSHORE
WILL TAKE POPS BACK UP TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS ONLY MODEST COOLING TO AIR MASS WITH THE
FRONT...CLOUDS AND EXPECTED OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL LIMIT HIGH
TEMPS TO THE 50S MOST LOW ELEVATION AREAS.

LATE THU NIGHT...AND ESP FRI BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES AS A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THROUGH BC WITH A TRUE COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN THE COAST AHEAD OF IT. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS IMPROVES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL...BEST
DEPICTED IN MODEL 290K ISENTROPIC FIELDS. AS SUCH...POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN PICKS UP CONSIDERABLY BY FRI.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING THE WESTERN
CANADIAN TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO THE PACIFIC NW STATES FRI NIGHT
AND SAT. ALL MODELS AT THIS POINT SHOWING A VIGOROUS CONTINENTAL
TYPE COLD FRONT MOVING S THROUGH SW WA AND NW OREGON FRI NIGHT.
PATTERN IS REMINISCENT OF A COLD FRONT FROM BACK ON 19 NOVEMBER 2003
THAT BROUGHT LOW ELEVATION SNOW TO INTERIOR N PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. KEYS TO DOING SOMETHING SIMILAR RELY ON SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL AS STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO ALLOW FOR DYNAMIC COOLING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
AT THIS POINT INDICATE SNOW LEVEL FALLING RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT
FRI NIGHT SUGGESTING AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN
TO FAIRLY LOW LEVELS. WHETHER IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO MIX SNOW AT
LOWEST ELEVATIONS IS ANYBODYS GUESS AT THIS POINT...BUT GIVEN THE
AGREEMENT IN MODELS AT THIS POINT WILL CARRY A MENTION OF MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE N PART OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. SAT SEES A
RATHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH A LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN
THE N...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR SATURDAYS MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES SAT NIGHT...
WITH ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS COMING TO END OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME
CLEARING SAT NIGHT AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WITH LOW TEMPS LIKELY GETTING WELL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
SPOTS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE CASCADES...
EXPECT STRONG EAST WINDS TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE GORGE SUNDAY MORNING
AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS SPILLING INTO THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. MONDAY MAY BE
A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WINDS AS A SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH.

MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE FROM THE ALEUTIANS IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF
FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC JET AND SETTLE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THERE IS A
CHANCE THIS SYSTEM COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPREAD SOME PRECIP
NORTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT OR MON. THE 12Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF. IF
THIS OCCURS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
GORGE. CUTOFF LOWS SUCH AS THIS ONE ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST...AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THEM IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WHERE THIS UPPER LOW GOES WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONTINUES FOR NOW EXCEPT FOR KAST WHERE PASSING
RAIN BANDS HAVE BRIEFLY LOWERED THE CIGS TO AROUND 029. EXPECT THE
OVERALL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE DETERIORATING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS THE OFFSHORE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. EVEN THEN
LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT TERRIBLY PESSIMISTIC WITH FLIGHT
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RADAR BACKS THIS
UP AS RETURNS ARE FAIRLY DISJOINTED IMPLYING A LACK OF
ORGANIZATION. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGES INTENT
OF SHOWING A LOWER AND WEAKLY CONVECTIVE DECK AFTER THE FRONT AND
LASTING THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY. THIS APPEARS TO RESULT IN IFR
CIGS AT THE COAST AND MVFR CIGS AROUND 020 INLAND.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THU WITH VISUAL APPROACHED BECOMING IMPACTED SHORTLY
THEREAFTER AS THE DECK LOWERS BEYOND 040. WILL LIKELY SEE CIGS
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 020 CLOSER TO 18Z WITH LITTLE LIFT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL CALENDAR DAY. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE BEEN UNDER PERFORMING THUS FAR TONIGHT WITH
THE HRRR MODEL HAVING AS GOOD OF A HANDLE AS ANYTHING. DO EXPECT
COASTAL JET ENHANCEMENT AS THE FRONT NEARS TONIGHT BUT LAST FEW
RUNS OF THE HRRR ONLY INDICATE A VERY MARGINAL GALE GUST SCENARIO
FROM ABOUT 15 NM OUT TOWARDS SHORE. BEST WINDS WILL STAY WELL
ELEVATED OFF THE WATER SURFACE AS BROAD ATMOSPHERIC LIFT IS NOT
SUPPORTING THE HIGHER SPEEDS GETTING MIXED TO THE SURFACE. WILL
MAINTAIN THE GALE WARNING SINCE IT HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.

BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS PERSIST
THU MORNING. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW 20-25 KT NW-N WIND DEVELOPING
OVER THE N WATERS FRI EVENING THEN SPREADING FURTHER S OVERNIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE WIND TURNS
OFFSHORE SAT WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS 20 TO 30 KT NEAR GAPS IN THE
COASTAL TERRAIN. WIND SPEEDS RELAX SUN.

SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 FT THIS EVENING THEN REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH AT LEAST SAT MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF
SAT AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. JBONK/WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
     PST THURSDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 270512
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
901 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY INLAND TONIGHT AND
EARLY THU. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER WESTERN OREGON THU NIGHT
AND FRI...BEFORE ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S THROUGH THE
REGION FRI NIGHT USHERING COLDER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRES
OVER THE INTERIOR NW WILL TURN THE FLOW OFFSHORE BY SUN FOR DRY BUT
COLD WEATHER. SUN NIGHT AND MON A SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE S WILL
ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION UP OVER THE COLD AIR MASS LEFT
OVER FROM THE WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...NWS DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO
SPREAD ONSHORE ACROSS THE REGION...THROUGH OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN LIMITED THUS FAR...GENERALLY
ONLY A TRACE OR FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. FORECAST REMAINS
GENERALLY ON TRACK...BUT INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PER RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
THE FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS SOMEWHAT DISJOINTED IN
APPEARANCE AND EXPECT RAINFALL TO BE INITIALLY LIGHT FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE INCREASING LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM MAY SPLIT N AND S...LEAVING
MANY PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN FROM MIDDAY
THU THROUGH THU EVENING. ALSO NUDGED FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES LOWER IN LINE WITH OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.
CULLEN
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS OFFSHORE WED AFTERNOON...WITH
LAYERED CLOUDS SPREAD OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SHIFTS E TONIGHT AND THU THE FLOW
WILL TURN MORE TO THE SW...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AGREE IN SHOWING MOISTURE INITIALLY IN THEMID AND
HIGH LEVELS...ABOVE 700MB. BY LATE TONIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO
SPREAD IN IN THE LOWER LEVELS. DYNAMICS WITH THIS FRONT HOWEVER ON
THE WEAK SIDE...SO WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT INLAND
AREAS...WHILE THE COAST AND COAST RANGE WILL BENEFIT FROM AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SSW FLOW. WITH CLOUDS LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE AREA STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR...
SHOULD BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT. THU THE FRONT APPEARS TO
STALL OVER THE REGION AS THE LOW OFFSHORE DIGS IN A BIT MORE. WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED AND LOW LEVEL FLOW A LITTLE MORE ONSHORE
WILL TAKE POPS BACK UP TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS ONLY MODEST COOLING TO AIR MASS WITH THE
FRONT...CLOUDS AND EXPECTED OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL LIMIT HIGH
TEMPS TO THE 50S MOST LOW ELEVATION AREAS.

LATE THU NIGHT...AND ESP FRI BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES AS A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THROUGH BC WITH A TRUE COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN THE COAST AHEAD OF IT. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS IMPROVES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL...BEST
DEPICTED IN MODEL 290K ISENTROPIC FIELDS. AS SUCH...POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN PICKS UP CONSIDERABLY BY FRI.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING THE WESTERN
CANADIAN TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO THE PACIFIC NW STATES FRI NIGHT
AND SAT. ALL MODELS AT THIS POINT SHOWING A VIGOROUS CONTINENTAL
TYPE COLD FRONT MOVING S THROUGH SW WA AND NW OREGON FRI NIGHT.
PATTERN IS REMINISCENT OF A COLD FRONT FROM BACK ON 19 NOVEMBER 2003
THAT BROUGHT LOW ELEVATION SNOW TO INTERIOR N PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. KEYS TO DOING SOMETHING SIMILAR RELY ON SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL AS STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO ALLOW FOR DYNAMIC COOLING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
AT THIS POINT INDICATE SNOW LEVEL FALLING RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT
FRI NIGHT SUGGESTING AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN
TO FAIRLY LOW LEVELS. WHETHER IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO MIX SNOW AT
LOWEST ELEVATIONS IS ANYBODYS GUESS AT THIS POINT...BUT GIVEN THE
AGREEMENT IN MODELS AT THIS POINT WILL CARRY A MENTION OF MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE N PART OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. SAT SEES A
RATHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH A LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN
THE N...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR SATURDAYS MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES SAT NIGHT...
WITH ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS COMING TO END OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME
CLEARING SAT NIGHT AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WITH LOW TEMPS LIKELY GETTING WELL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
SPOTS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE CASCADES...
EXPECT STRONG EAST WINDS TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE GORGE SUNDAY MORNING
AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS SPILLING INTO THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. MONDAY MAY BE
A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WINDS AS A SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH.

MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE FROM THE ALEUTIANS IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF
FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC JET AND SETTLE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THERE IS A
CHANCE THIS SYSTEM COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPREAD SOME PRECIP
NORTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT OR MON. THE 12Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF. IF
THIS OCCURS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
GORGE. CUTOFF LOWS SUCH AS THIS ONE ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST...AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THEM IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WHERE THIS UPPER LOW GOES WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONTINUES FOR NOW EXCEPT FOR KAST WHERE PASSING
RAIN BANDS HAVE BRIEFLY LOWERED THE CIGS TO AROUND 029. EXPECT THE
OVERALL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE DETERIORATING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS THE OFFSHORE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. EVEN THEN
LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT TERRIBLY PESSIMISTIC WITH FLIGHT
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RADAR BACKS THIS
UP AS RETURNS ARE FAIRLY DISJOINTED IMPLYING A LACK OF
ORGANIZATION. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGES INTENT
OF SHOWING A LOWER AND WEAKLY CONVECTIVE DECK AFTER THE FRONT AND
LASTING THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY. THIS APPEARS TO RESULT IN IFR
CIGS AT THE COAST AND MVFR CIGS AROUND 020 INLAND.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THU WITH VISUAL APPROACHED BECOMING IMPACTED SHORTLY
THEREAFTER AS THE DECK LOWERS BEYOND 040. WILL LIKELY SEE CIGS
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 020 CLOSER TO 18Z WITH LITTLE LIFT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL CALENDAR DAY. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE BEEN UNDER PERFORMING THUS FAR TONIGHT WITH
THE HRRR MODEL HAVING AS GOOD OF A HANDLE AS ANYTHING. DO EXPECT
COASTAL JET ENHANCEMENT AS THE FRONT NEARS TONIGHT BUT LAST FEW
RUNS OF THE HRRR ONLY INDICATE A VERY MARGINAL GALE GUST SCENARIO
FROM ABOUT 15 NM OUT TOWARDS SHORE. BEST WINDS WILL STAY WELL
ELEVATED OFF THE WATER SURFACE AS BROAD ATMOSPHERIC LIFT IS NOT
SUPPORTING THE HIGHER SPEEDS GETTING MIXED TO THE SURFACE. WILL
MAINTAIN THE GALE WARNING SINCE IT HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.

BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS PERSIST
THU MORNING. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW 20-25 KT NW-N WIND DEVELOPING
OVER THE N WATERS FRI EVENING THEN SPREADING FURTHER S OVERNIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE WIND TURNS
OFFSHORE SAT WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS 20 TO 30 KT NEAR GAPS IN THE
COASTAL TERRAIN. WIND SPEEDS RELAX SUN.

SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 FT THIS EVENING THEN REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH AT LEAST SAT MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF
SAT AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. JBONK/WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
     PST THURSDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 270011
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
410 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT
FOR MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON
THANKSGIVING DAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THEN
CROSSES THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW. COOLER AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL COMBINE FOR COOL
DRY WEATHER AND MORE SUNSHINE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE FRONT OFFSHORE ALONG 130W AT 23Z
MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE COAST. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS SYSTEM...WITH FROPA ON THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT AND OVER
PUGET SOUND BEFORE BEFORE 12Z/4 AM. SE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW END WIND ADVISORY
WINDS 20-35G45 MPH MAY DEVELOP OVER THE N COAST AND PARTS OF THE N
INTERIOR. WINDS WILL EASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL ALSO RAISE STRONG SW LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 35-45 KT
AROUND 850 MB WHICH SHOULD BRING HEAVY OROGRAPHIC RAIN TO THE
OLYMPICS AND N CASCADES. AFTER A BRIEF LULL BEHIND TONIGHTS
FRONT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S ALONG THE B.C. COAST BRINGING RAIN
AT TIMES TO W WA AHEAD OF IT THROUGH THANKSGIVING. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS W WA ON FRIDAY. THIS COLD FRONT IS ACTUALLY
THE OLD WARM FRONT THAT STALLED OVER SOUTHERN B.C. TODAY. A STRONG
COLD UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING DOWN THE B.C. COAST WILL
SHOVE THE BAROCLINIC BAND BACK SOUTHWARD AND ACROSS W WA AS A COLD
FRONT.

SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME STRONG AGAIN AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA ON THURSDAY...EXTENDING THE PERIOD OF HEAVY
OROGRAPHIC RAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
EASE OFF FROM THE NORTH AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. 48 HOUR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM 00Z THURSDAY/WED AFTERNOON THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WILL BE AROUND 4 INCHES FOR THE OLYMPICS AND 3-4.5
INCHES FOR THE NORTH CASCADES...EXCEPT FOR A BULLSEYE AROUND 6
INCHES AROUND MT BAKER. THIS MAY BRING SOME OF THE RIVERS FLOWING
OFF THE N CASCADES AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF THE CENTRAL CASCADES TO
FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE MILD AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY...THE COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD. THE AIR MASS WILL COOL ENOUGH SO THAT SNOW
LEVELS OVER THE LOWLAND LOWER TO 500-1000 FEET LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND
THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY AND LIFT. A PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL LIKELY SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND EXTEND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OVER
THE N INTERIOR...OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF THE N COAST AND WESTERN
STRAIT...NEAR THE CASCADES AND POSSIBLY IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 500-1000 FEET IN THESE AREAS. SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER TO BELOW 500 FEET THROUGHOUT W WA SATURDAY MORNING. WITH
THE TROUGH STILL OVERHEAD THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS A
CHANCE FOR A LITTLE MORE IN A CONVERGENCE ZONE. KAM

.LONG TERM...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER B.C. ON FRIDAY WILL
ALLOW COLD FRASER RIVER VALLEY OUTFLOW TO DEVELOP...BRINGING MORE
COLD AIR DRY S OVER W WA. THE AIR MASS WILL DRY OUT SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20S SUNDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY. THE FRASER VALLEY OUTFLOW WILL PROBABLY GENERATE
ADVISORY LEVEL NE WINDS OVER WHATCOM AND SAN JUAN COUNTY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE ECMWF HAS LEANED MORE CONSISTENTLY THAN THE GFS IN KEEPING A
COOL DRY PATTERN OVER W WA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST ECMWF
NOW KEEPS THE PATTERN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SYSTEM THAT GET CLOSE. THE GFS HAD BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
RAIN UP OVER THE ARE FROM THE S...BUT HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THIS ON
THE 12Z AND 18Z RUNS. IT MAY HAVE BEEN PREMATURE...BUT I HAVE DRIED
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS SHAKY BUT HOPE IT STAYS THAT WAY.
KAM

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A WARM FRONT HELD HEAVIER RAINFALL NORTH OF THE
WA/BRITISH COLUMBIA BORDER TODAY. THIS IS ALLOWING MOST RIVERS TO
SLOWLY RECEDE ACROSS WRN WA. RAIN AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES SINCE
MONDAY IN PLACES LIKE MOUNT RAINIER AND THE
SKYKOMISH-SNOQUALMIE-TOLT-SNOHOMISH BASIN WILL STILL CAUSE SOME
RESIDUAL FLOODING...MAINLY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING RENEWED RAINFALL TO WRN WA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...LOCALLY HEAVY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH
CASCADES WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN EXPECTED. 1 TO 2 INCHES MAY FALL IN THE CENTRAL CASCADES. THE
SNOW LEVEL WILL BE NEAR 7000 FEET.

A SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. MODELS VARY MUCH MORE ON THE DISTRIBUTION AND POTENTIAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM. IN
GENERAL...HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SHOULD
OCCUR ALONG S/SW FACING SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS AND N
CASCADES...ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL CASCADES COULD ALSO SEE HEAVY
PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE. THIS MEANS THE 36-48 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE OLYMPICS
AND CASCADES MAY REACH 4 TO 7 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE N CASCADES.

THESE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY DRIVE SEVERAL RIVERS TO FLOOD...ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD MAJOR FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY. AT HIGHEST RISK FOR
FLOODING IS THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN THE OLYMPICS...THE NOOKSACK AND
SKAGIT RIVERS IN THE NORTH...AND THE
STILLAGUAMISH...SNOQUALMIE...AND TOLT ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS. IF THE
HEAVIER RAIN SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THEN FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE
ON THE DESCHUTES RIVER AND THE REACH OF THE SKOOKUMCHUCK RIVER NEAR
BUCODA IN THURSTON COUNTY.

A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH INCLUDES ALL
THE COUNTIES WITH RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES
AND MASON COUNTY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FLOOD ON THE SKOKOMISH.

COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...SO RIVERS SHOULD
RECEDE AND THE FLOOD THREAT WILL END FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...THE FLOW ALOFT IS STRONG AND FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST.
THE AIR MASS IS RATHER MOIST AND RELATIVELY STABLE AFTER THE PASSAGE
OF A WARM FRONT. CIGS ARE CURRENTLY MVFR TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA. A
COLD FRONT IS TIMED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
DESTABILIZE THINGS...CIGS MAY RISE A BIT BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH...BUT THEN CIGS WILL DETERIORATE AFTERWARDS TO IFR OR MVFR.
SLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY WITH THE FRONT AND INTO
THE DAY THURSDAY.

KSEA...SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 12 TO 14 KT OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO
20 KT DURING AND AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 7 TO 9Z. CIGS WILL
CHANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR SHORTLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS A LOWER
DECK OF CLOUDS MOVES IN. JSMITH

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT. GALE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED TONIGHT FOR THE COAST...ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT...AND
NORTHERN INLAND WATERS AS THEY ARE MOST PRONE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS THAT THE FRONT WILL BRING. MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY...AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG FRASER OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE OTHER WATERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHER SEA LEVEL PRESSURE INLAND AND LOWER PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. JSMITH

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
      WESTERN WASHINGTON.
     WIND ADVISORY N COAST AND PARTS OF N INTERIOR TONIGHT.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR BAR FOR ROUGH BAR.
    .GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES STRAIT OF JUAN DE
     FUCA...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KSEW 270011
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
410 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT
FOR MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON
THANKSGIVING DAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THEN
CROSSES THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW. COOLER AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL COMBINE FOR COOL
DRY WEATHER AND MORE SUNSHINE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE FRONT OFFSHORE ALONG 130W AT 23Z
MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE COAST. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS SYSTEM...WITH FROPA ON THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT AND OVER
PUGET SOUND BEFORE BEFORE 12Z/4 AM. SE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW END WIND ADVISORY
WINDS 20-35G45 MPH MAY DEVELOP OVER THE N COAST AND PARTS OF THE N
INTERIOR. WINDS WILL EASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL ALSO RAISE STRONG SW LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 35-45 KT
AROUND 850 MB WHICH SHOULD BRING HEAVY OROGRAPHIC RAIN TO THE
OLYMPICS AND N CASCADES. AFTER A BRIEF LULL BEHIND TONIGHTS
FRONT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S ALONG THE B.C. COAST BRINGING RAIN
AT TIMES TO W WA AHEAD OF IT THROUGH THANKSGIVING. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS W WA ON FRIDAY. THIS COLD FRONT IS ACTUALLY
THE OLD WARM FRONT THAT STALLED OVER SOUTHERN B.C. TODAY. A STRONG
COLD UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING DOWN THE B.C. COAST WILL
SHOVE THE BAROCLINIC BAND BACK SOUTHWARD AND ACROSS W WA AS A COLD
FRONT.

SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME STRONG AGAIN AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA ON THURSDAY...EXTENDING THE PERIOD OF HEAVY
OROGRAPHIC RAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
EASE OFF FROM THE NORTH AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. 48 HOUR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM 00Z THURSDAY/WED AFTERNOON THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WILL BE AROUND 4 INCHES FOR THE OLYMPICS AND 3-4.5
INCHES FOR THE NORTH CASCADES...EXCEPT FOR A BULLSEYE AROUND 6
INCHES AROUND MT BAKER. THIS MAY BRING SOME OF THE RIVERS FLOWING
OFF THE N CASCADES AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF THE CENTRAL CASCADES TO
FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE MILD AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY...THE COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD. THE AIR MASS WILL COOL ENOUGH SO THAT SNOW
LEVELS OVER THE LOWLAND LOWER TO 500-1000 FEET LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND
THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY AND LIFT. A PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL LIKELY SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND EXTEND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OVER
THE N INTERIOR...OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF THE N COAST AND WESTERN
STRAIT...NEAR THE CASCADES AND POSSIBLY IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 500-1000 FEET IN THESE AREAS. SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER TO BELOW 500 FEET THROUGHOUT W WA SATURDAY MORNING. WITH
THE TROUGH STILL OVERHEAD THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS A
CHANCE FOR A LITTLE MORE IN A CONVERGENCE ZONE. KAM

.LONG TERM...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER B.C. ON FRIDAY WILL
ALLOW COLD FRASER RIVER VALLEY OUTFLOW TO DEVELOP...BRINGING MORE
COLD AIR DRY S OVER W WA. THE AIR MASS WILL DRY OUT SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20S SUNDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY. THE FRASER VALLEY OUTFLOW WILL PROBABLY GENERATE
ADVISORY LEVEL NE WINDS OVER WHATCOM AND SAN JUAN COUNTY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE ECMWF HAS LEANED MORE CONSISTENTLY THAN THE GFS IN KEEPING A
COOL DRY PATTERN OVER W WA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST ECMWF
NOW KEEPS THE PATTERN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SYSTEM THAT GET CLOSE. THE GFS HAD BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
RAIN UP OVER THE ARE FROM THE S...BUT HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THIS ON
THE 12Z AND 18Z RUNS. IT MAY HAVE BEEN PREMATURE...BUT I HAVE DRIED
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS SHAKY BUT HOPE IT STAYS THAT WAY.
KAM

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A WARM FRONT HELD HEAVIER RAINFALL NORTH OF THE
WA/BRITISH COLUMBIA BORDER TODAY. THIS IS ALLOWING MOST RIVERS TO
SLOWLY RECEDE ACROSS WRN WA. RAIN AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES SINCE
MONDAY IN PLACES LIKE MOUNT RAINIER AND THE
SKYKOMISH-SNOQUALMIE-TOLT-SNOHOMISH BASIN WILL STILL CAUSE SOME
RESIDUAL FLOODING...MAINLY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING RENEWED RAINFALL TO WRN WA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...LOCALLY HEAVY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH
CASCADES WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN EXPECTED. 1 TO 2 INCHES MAY FALL IN THE CENTRAL CASCADES. THE
SNOW LEVEL WILL BE NEAR 7000 FEET.

A SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. MODELS VARY MUCH MORE ON THE DISTRIBUTION AND POTENTIAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM. IN
GENERAL...HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SHOULD
OCCUR ALONG S/SW FACING SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS AND N
CASCADES...ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL CASCADES COULD ALSO SEE HEAVY
PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE. THIS MEANS THE 36-48 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE OLYMPICS
AND CASCADES MAY REACH 4 TO 7 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE N CASCADES.

THESE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY DRIVE SEVERAL RIVERS TO FLOOD...ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD MAJOR FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY. AT HIGHEST RISK FOR
FLOODING IS THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN THE OLYMPICS...THE NOOKSACK AND
SKAGIT RIVERS IN THE NORTH...AND THE
STILLAGUAMISH...SNOQUALMIE...AND TOLT ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS. IF THE
HEAVIER RAIN SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THEN FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE
ON THE DESCHUTES RIVER AND THE REACH OF THE SKOOKUMCHUCK RIVER NEAR
BUCODA IN THURSTON COUNTY.

A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH INCLUDES ALL
THE COUNTIES WITH RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES
AND MASON COUNTY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FLOOD ON THE SKOKOMISH.

COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...SO RIVERS SHOULD
RECEDE AND THE FLOOD THREAT WILL END FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...THE FLOW ALOFT IS STRONG AND FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST.
THE AIR MASS IS RATHER MOIST AND RELATIVELY STABLE AFTER THE PASSAGE
OF A WARM FRONT. CIGS ARE CURRENTLY MVFR TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA. A
COLD FRONT IS TIMED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
DESTABILIZE THINGS...CIGS MAY RISE A BIT BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH...BUT THEN CIGS WILL DETERIORATE AFTERWARDS TO IFR OR MVFR.
SLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY WITH THE FRONT AND INTO
THE DAY THURSDAY.

KSEA...SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 12 TO 14 KT OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO
20 KT DURING AND AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 7 TO 9Z. CIGS WILL
CHANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR SHORTLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS A LOWER
DECK OF CLOUDS MOVES IN. JSMITH

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT. GALE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED TONIGHT FOR THE COAST...ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT...AND
NORTHERN INLAND WATERS AS THEY ARE MOST PRONE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS THAT THE FRONT WILL BRING. MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY...AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG FRASER OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE OTHER WATERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHER SEA LEVEL PRESSURE INLAND AND LOWER PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. JSMITH

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
      WESTERN WASHINGTON.
     WIND ADVISORY N COAST AND PARTS OF N INTERIOR TONIGHT.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR BAR FOR ROUGH BAR.
    .GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES STRAIT OF JUAN DE
     FUCA...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML













000
FXUS66 KOTX 262344
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
343 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected tonight and Thanksgiving with
areas of dense fog. Snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Thursday: The region remains under a dirty upper-level
ridge. In general, the ridge is bringing much warmer air into the
region (at least in the midlevels) and is shoving the moist
frontal boundary northward into southern BC. Because the ridge has
fully translated east, some of this moisture is coming down the
eastern periphery of the ridge and continuing to bring light rain
and high mountain snow into the northern Idaho Panhandle. The
biggest impacts from the warming aloft is a moist inversion over
the Basin delivering widespread fog and low clouds. Dense fog has
plagued the Upper Columbia Basin through much of the day and will
continue for much of the night. As of 2PM...the worse visibilities
were found along Hwy 2 from Airway Heights to Waterville and
northward along Hwy 395 between Spokane and Colville. As such, a
dense fog advisory has been issued.

As we go into the night and Thanksgiving, the ridge will flatten
and the moist frontal boundary will sag back into Washington and
Northern Idaho. We will not see much in the way of cooling north
of the boundary but rather an increase in precipitation. The good
news is winds should begin picking up and we will lose the pockets
of cooler air in the northern valleys resulting in snow levels
between 5-6K ft. Modest westerly flow within the 850-700mb layer
will deliver somewhat of a rain shadow in the Basin but add lift
to the already strong isentropic omega over the northern and
eastern mountains.

Under this pattern, a wide range of temperatures will be found
across the region. Today for instance, we are seeing highs in the
30`s north to 60`s in the foothills of the Blue Mtns. Overnight
lows will drop very little from the current readings (with the
exception of the 60`s in the southeast) then tomorrow will have
the potential for widespread 40s and 50s with a few 60`s if the
winds can efficiency mix to the valley floors.  /sb

Thursday night through Saturday...A complex interplay between an
initially very moist air mass and a strong arctic push will bring
a very active weather regime to the region through this
period...featuring wet and windy but surprisingly mild late
November conditions Thursday night through Friday night...with a
stark drying trend with temperatures beginning to plunge like a
rock on Saturday.

Two features of note on Pacific satellite are the deep closed low
spinning off the coast...hosting a very moist air mass...and an
incipient arctic origin trough barely perceptible on satellite
over the Yukon dropping into northern BC this afternoon. The
latest GFS and ECMWF models are in better agreement today and
honing in on a solution that involves the digging arctic trough
picking up and enhancing the Pacific moisture over the forecast
area into a long running semi-orographic precipitation pattern
followed by a strong push of very dry arctic air down the Okanogan
Valley and eventually exchanging the current moist maritime air
mass over the region with a bone dry and cold air mass.

Thursday night will include a moist orographic pattern with
strong westerly flow across the mountains promoting a decent rain
shadow over the basin...with snow levels in this mild maritime
air mass maintaining between 5000 and 6000 feet. On Friday a deep
surface low pressure will form to the north and deepen
aggressively under the dynamic jet region ahead of the incoming
trough as it descends through the forecast area. This will allow
rain and high mountain snow to become more widespread and include
most of the Columbia Basin during the day Friday. Winds will
become very gusty during Friday afternoon especially over the
exposed basin terrain...and a Wind Advisory may be necessary with
model soundings suggesting 45 to 50 mph gust potential in the
mixed layer. This will also promote continued mild temperatures.

Friday night the arctic cold front will follow the now exiting
surface low with an impressively strong northerly gradient setting
up down the Okanogan Valley and eventually encompassing the deep
basin by Saturday. This is another potential Wind Advisory or
even a High Wind Warning pattern that will need to be monitored
and refined on subsequent shifts. By Saturday afternoon a stark
clearing trend from north to south will become apparent as very
dry air invades the region. As snow levels quickly drop
precipitation will be quickly ending so no winter storm highlights
are expected. Temperatures on Saturday may start out at their
high temperatures and either remain steady or plunge during the
day. /Fugazzi

Saturday Night through Sunday Night: A trough will exit the
region Saturday night with the best chance of snow extending from
Pullman south toward the Blue Mountains and Camas Prairie. The
flow will turn north to northeasterly which will bring in cold
Canadian air. Min temperatures will be about 7-14 degrees below
average for this time of the year. Temps in the single digits to
low teens will be common. Below zero is not out of the question
for the Methow and Okanogan Valleys. Sunday and Sunday Night the
models agree on showing a broad ridge in place with very dry
conditions. Have taken out all previous mention of snow and
decreased sky cover. There is the potential for valley fog, but am
not confident quite yet as to where it would form. Will have to
wait to see how much drying we get behind the trough.

Monday through Wednesday: Both the EC and GFS show another trough
moving through the area on Monday. There are some discrepancies
between the two...mainly being the GFS takes the main energy and
slides it along the Canadian border where the EC digs it further
south into our area. So we have some discrepancies as to where the
best chance of rain and snow will set up. Right now am trending
more towards the wetter/slightly warmer GFS and have chance of
precipitation across extreme eastern WA and all of the ID
Panhandle. This is quite a bit different from the previous
forecast that had a chance of precip just about everywhere. After
the trough passes Monday another broad ridge sets up across the
Inland Northwest. The best chance of precip will remain across
southeast WA and the LC Valley/Camas Prairie areas. Temperatures
will start to moderate a bit, but will still be below average for
this time of the year. /Nisbet

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A very moist boundary layer will promote widespread IFR
and LIFR ceilings and visibilities over the Columbia Basin through
06Z...affecting all TAF sites except KPUW and KLWS. After 06Z a
developing surface low over British Columbia will create a
southerly gradient breeze which may allow some improvement in
visibilities and marginal ceiling improvement...however since this
will be developing at night and thus involving a nocturnal
inversion locking in the low level moisture...confidence is only
moderate for this improvement. Confidence is higher for
significant improvement during the mid morning hours on Thursday
when diurnal mixing will play a larger role in breaking up the fog
and stratus.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  49  41  46  27  30 /  30  30  20  70  60  10
Coeur d`Alene  36  47  41  45  29  31 /  30  40  40  80  70  20
Pullman        44  52  43  49  32  34 /  20  30  30  90  90  50
Lewiston       43  55  46  53  38  40 /  10  10  20  60  70  60
Colville       36  45  40  43  22  24 /  60  50  50  70  30  10
Sandpoint      33  45  38  42  26  26 /  70  60  70  80  80  20
Kellogg        37  44  39  41  30  31 /  60  80  60  90 100  50
Moses Lake     38  52  41  51  27  31 /  10  10  20  30  30  10
Wenatchee      39  47  41  48  29  30 /  10  10  30  30  20  10
Omak           34  43  37  41  16  20 /  30  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Northeast
     Mountains-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville
     Plateau.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 262344
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
343 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected tonight and Thanksgiving with
areas of dense fog. Snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Thursday: The region remains under a dirty upper-level
ridge. In general, the ridge is bringing much warmer air into the
region (at least in the midlevels) and is shoving the moist
frontal boundary northward into southern BC. Because the ridge has
fully translated east, some of this moisture is coming down the
eastern periphery of the ridge and continuing to bring light rain
and high mountain snow into the northern Idaho Panhandle. The
biggest impacts from the warming aloft is a moist inversion over
the Basin delivering widespread fog and low clouds. Dense fog has
plagued the Upper Columbia Basin through much of the day and will
continue for much of the night. As of 2PM...the worse visibilities
were found along Hwy 2 from Airway Heights to Waterville and
northward along Hwy 395 between Spokane and Colville. As such, a
dense fog advisory has been issued.

As we go into the night and Thanksgiving, the ridge will flatten
and the moist frontal boundary will sag back into Washington and
Northern Idaho. We will not see much in the way of cooling north
of the boundary but rather an increase in precipitation. The good
news is winds should begin picking up and we will lose the pockets
of cooler air in the northern valleys resulting in snow levels
between 5-6K ft. Modest westerly flow within the 850-700mb layer
will deliver somewhat of a rain shadow in the Basin but add lift
to the already strong isentropic omega over the northern and
eastern mountains.

Under this pattern, a wide range of temperatures will be found
across the region. Today for instance, we are seeing highs in the
30`s north to 60`s in the foothills of the Blue Mtns. Overnight
lows will drop very little from the current readings (with the
exception of the 60`s in the southeast) then tomorrow will have
the potential for widespread 40s and 50s with a few 60`s if the
winds can efficiency mix to the valley floors.  /sb

Thursday night through Saturday...A complex interplay between an
initially very moist air mass and a strong arctic push will bring
a very active weather regime to the region through this
period...featuring wet and windy but surprisingly mild late
November conditions Thursday night through Friday night...with a
stark drying trend with temperatures beginning to plunge like a
rock on Saturday.

Two features of note on Pacific satellite are the deep closed low
spinning off the coast...hosting a very moist air mass...and an
incipient arctic origin trough barely perceptible on satellite
over the Yukon dropping into northern BC this afternoon. The
latest GFS and ECMWF models are in better agreement today and
honing in on a solution that involves the digging arctic trough
picking up and enhancing the Pacific moisture over the forecast
area into a long running semi-orographic precipitation pattern
followed by a strong push of very dry arctic air down the Okanogan
Valley and eventually exchanging the current moist maritime air
mass over the region with a bone dry and cold air mass.

Thursday night will include a moist orographic pattern with
strong westerly flow across the mountains promoting a decent rain
shadow over the basin...with snow levels in this mild maritime
air mass maintaining between 5000 and 6000 feet. On Friday a deep
surface low pressure will form to the north and deepen
aggressively under the dynamic jet region ahead of the incoming
trough as it descends through the forecast area. This will allow
rain and high mountain snow to become more widespread and include
most of the Columbia Basin during the day Friday. Winds will
become very gusty during Friday afternoon especially over the
exposed basin terrain...and a Wind Advisory may be necessary with
model soundings suggesting 45 to 50 mph gust potential in the
mixed layer. This will also promote continued mild temperatures.

Friday night the arctic cold front will follow the now exiting
surface low with an impressively strong northerly gradient setting
up down the Okanogan Valley and eventually encompassing the deep
basin by Saturday. This is another potential Wind Advisory or
even a High Wind Warning pattern that will need to be monitored
and refined on subsequent shifts. By Saturday afternoon a stark
clearing trend from north to south will become apparent as very
dry air invades the region. As snow levels quickly drop
precipitation will be quickly ending so no winter storm highlights
are expected. Temperatures on Saturday may start out at their
high temperatures and either remain steady or plunge during the
day. /Fugazzi

Saturday Night through Sunday Night: A trough will exit the
region Saturday night with the best chance of snow extending from
Pullman south toward the Blue Mountains and Camas Prairie. The
flow will turn north to northeasterly which will bring in cold
Canadian air. Min temperatures will be about 7-14 degrees below
average for this time of the year. Temps in the single digits to
low teens will be common. Below zero is not out of the question
for the Methow and Okanogan Valleys. Sunday and Sunday Night the
models agree on showing a broad ridge in place with very dry
conditions. Have taken out all previous mention of snow and
decreased sky cover. There is the potential for valley fog, but am
not confident quite yet as to where it would form. Will have to
wait to see how much drying we get behind the trough.

Monday through Wednesday: Both the EC and GFS show another trough
moving through the area on Monday. There are some discrepancies
between the two...mainly being the GFS takes the main energy and
slides it along the Canadian border where the EC digs it further
south into our area. So we have some discrepancies as to where the
best chance of rain and snow will set up. Right now am trending
more towards the wetter/slightly warmer GFS and have chance of
precipitation across extreme eastern WA and all of the ID
Panhandle. This is quite a bit different from the previous
forecast that had a chance of precip just about everywhere. After
the trough passes Monday another broad ridge sets up across the
Inland Northwest. The best chance of precip will remain across
southeast WA and the LC Valley/Camas Prairie areas. Temperatures
will start to moderate a bit, but will still be below average for
this time of the year. /Nisbet

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A very moist boundary layer will promote widespread IFR
and LIFR ceilings and visibilities over the Columbia Basin through
06Z...affecting all TAF sites except KPUW and KLWS. After 06Z a
developing surface low over British Columbia will create a
southerly gradient breeze which may allow some improvement in
visibilities and marginal ceiling improvement...however since this
will be developing at night and thus involving a nocturnal
inversion locking in the low level moisture...confidence is only
moderate for this improvement. Confidence is higher for
significant improvement during the mid morning hours on Thursday
when diurnal mixing will play a larger role in breaking up the fog
and stratus.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  49  41  46  27  30 /  30  30  20  70  60  10
Coeur d`Alene  36  47  41  45  29  31 /  30  40  40  80  70  20
Pullman        44  52  43  49  32  34 /  20  30  30  90  90  50
Lewiston       43  55  46  53  38  40 /  10  10  20  60  70  60
Colville       36  45  40  43  22  24 /  60  50  50  70  30  10
Sandpoint      33  45  38  42  26  26 /  70  60  70  80  80  20
Kellogg        37  44  39  41  30  31 /  60  80  60  90 100  50
Moses Lake     38  52  41  51  27  31 /  10  10  20  30  30  10
Wenatchee      39  47  41  48  29  30 /  10  10  30  30  20  10
Omak           34  43  37  41  16  20 /  30  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Northeast
     Mountains-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville
     Plateau.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 262343
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
343 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD AND BREEZY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THANKSGIVING WITH
AREAS OF DENSE FOG. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES. MOTORISTS WITH PLANS TO TRAVEL OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
SHOULD EXPERIENCE GOOD CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WILL BRING WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AND
MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY: THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DIRTY UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE. IN GENERAL, THE RIDGE IS BRINGING MUCH WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION (AT LEAST IN THE MIDLEVELS) AND IS SHOVING THE MOIST
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN BC. BECAUSE THE RIDGE HAS
FULLY TRANSLATED EAST, SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS COMING DOWN THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND CONTINUING TO BRING LIGHT RAIN
AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW INTO THE NORTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE. THE
BIGGEST IMPACTS FROM THE WARMING ALOFT IS A MOIST INVERSION OVER
THE BASIN DELIVERING WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. DENSE FOG HAS
PLAGUED THE UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AS OF 2PM...THE WORSE VISIBILITIES
WERE FOUND ALONG HWY 2 FROM AIRWAY HEIGHTS TO WATERVILLE AND
NORTHWARD ALONG HWY 395 BETWEEN SPOKANE AND COLVILLE. AS SUCH, A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

AS WE GO INTO THE NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING, THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
AND THE MOIST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG BACK INTO WASHINGTON AND
NORTHERN IDAHO. WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF COOLING NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY BUT RATHER AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION. THE GOOD
NEWS IS WINDS SHOULD BEGIN PICKING UP AND WE WILL LOSE THE POCKETS
OF COOLER AIR IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS RESULTING IN SNOW LEVELS
BETWEEN 5-6K FT. MODEST WESTERLY FLOW WITHIN THE 850-700MB LAYER
WILL DELIVER SOMEWHAT OF A RAIN SHADOW IN THE BASIN BUT ADD LIFT
TO THE ALREADY STRONG ISENTROPIC OMEGA OVER THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

UNDER THIS PATTERN, A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE REGION. TODAY FOR INSTANCE, WE ARE SEEING HIGHS IN THE
30`S NORTH TO 60`S IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MTNS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DROP VERY LITTLE FROM THE CURRENT READINGS (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE 60`S IN THE SOUTHEAST) THEN TOMORROW WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD 40S AND 50S WITH A FEW 60`S IF THE
WINDS CAN EFFICIENCY MIX TO THE VALLEY FLOORS.  /SB

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COMPLEX INTERPLAY BETWEEN AN
INITIALLY VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND A STRONG ARCTIC PUSH WILL BRING
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...FEATURING WET AND WINDY BUT SURPRISINGLY MILD LATE
NOVEMBER CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A
STARK DRYING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO PLUNGE LIKE A
ROCK ON SATURDAY.

TWO FEATURES OF NOTE ON PACIFIC SATELLITE ARE THE DEEP CLOSED LOW
SPINNING OFF THE COAST...HOSTING A VERY MOIST AIR MASS...AND AN
INCIPIENT ARCTIC ORIGIN TROUGH BARELY PERCEPTIBLE ON SATELLITE
OVER THE YUKON DROPPING INTO NORTHERN BC THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY AND
HONING IN ON A SOLUTION THAT INVOLVES THE DIGGING ARCTIC TROUGH
PICKING UP AND ENHANCING THE PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA INTO A LONG RUNNING SEMI-OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION PATTERN
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG PUSH OF VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR DOWN THE OKANOGAN
VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY EXCHANGING THE CURRENT MOIST MARITIME AIR
MASS OVER THE REGION WITH A BONE DRY AND COLD AIR MASS.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL INCLUDE A MOIST OROGRAPHIC PATTERN WITH
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS PROMOTING A DECENT RAIN
SHADOW OVER THE BASIN...WITH SNOW LEVELS IN THIS MILD MARITIME
AIR MASS MAINTAINING BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET. ON FRIDAY A DEEP
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM TO THE NORTH AND DEEPEN
AGGRESSIVELY UNDER THE DYNAMIC JET REGION AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
TROUGH AS IT DESCENDS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND INCLUDE
MOST OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME VERY GUSTY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EXPOSED BASIN TERRAIN...AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING 45 TO 50 MPH GUST POTENTIAL IN THE
MIXED LAYER. THIS WILL ALSO PROMOTE CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE NOW EXITING
SURFACE LOW WITH AN IMPRESSIVELY STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT SETTING
UP DOWN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSING THE DEEP
BASIN BY SATURDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER POTENTIAL WIND ADVISORY OR
EVEN A HIGH WIND WARNING PATTERN THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
AND REFINED ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON A STARK
CLEARING TREND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WILL BECOME APPARENT AS VERY
DRY AIR INVADES THE REGION. AS SNOW LEVELS QUICKLY DROP
PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUICKLY ENDING SO NO WINTER STORM HIGHLIGHTS
ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY MAY START OUT AT THEIR
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND EITHER REMAIN STEADY OR PLUNGE DURING THE
DAY. /FUGAZZI

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: A TROUGH WILL EXIT THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW EXTENDING FROM
PULLMAN SOUTH TOWARD THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND CAMAS PRAIRIE. THE
FLOW WILL TURN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL BRING IN COLD
CANADIAN AIR. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 7-14 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOW TEENS WILL BE COMMON. BELOW ZERO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR THE METHOW AND OKANOGAN VALLEYS. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE
MODELS AGREE ON SHOWING A BROAD RIDGE IN PLACE WITH VERY DRY
CONDITIONS. HAVE TAKEN OUT ALL PREVIOUS MENTION OF SNOW AND
DECREASED SKY COVER. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG, BUT AM
NOT CONFIDENT QUITE YET AS TO WHERE IT WOULD FORM. WILL HAVE TO
WAIT TO SEE HOW MUCH DRYING WE GET BEHIND THE TROUGH.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH THE EC AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE TWO...MAINLY BEING THE GFS TAKES THE MAIN ENERGY AND
SLIDES IT ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WHERE THE EC DIGS IT FURTHER
SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. SO WE HAVE SOME DISCREPANCIES AS TO WHERE THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL SET UP. RIGHT NOW AM TRENDING
MORE TOWARDS THE WETTER/SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS AND HAVE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN WA AND ALL OF THE ID
PANHANDLE. THIS IS QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THAT HAD A CHANCE OF PRECIP JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. AFTER
THE TROUGH PASSES MONDAY ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE SETS UP ACROSS THE
INLAND NORTHWEST. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WA AND THE LC VALLEY/CAMAS PRAIRIE AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL START TO MODERATE A BIT, BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. /NISBET

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROMOTE WIDESPREAD IFR
AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN THROUGH
06Z...AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KPUW AND KLWS. AFTER 06Z A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL CREATE A
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT BREEZE WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
VISIBILITIES AND MARGINAL CEILING IMPROVEMENT...HOWEVER SINCE THIS
WILL BE DEVELOPING AT NIGHT AND THUS INVOLVING A NOCTURNAL
INVERSION LOCKING IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CONFIDENCE IS ONLY
MODERATE FOR THIS IMPROVEMENT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY
WHEN DIURNAL MIXING WILL PLAY A LARGER ROLE IN BREAKING UP THE FOG
AND STRATUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        39  49  41  46  27  30 /  30  30  20  70  60  10
COEUR D`ALENE  36  47  41  45  29  31 /  30  40  40  80  70  20
PULLMAN        44  52  43  49  32  34 /  20  30  30  90  90  50
LEWISTON       43  55  46  53  38  40 /  10  10  20  60  70  60
COLVILLE       36  45  40  43  22  24 /  60  50  50  70  30  10
SANDPOINT      33  45  38  42  26  26 /  70  60  70  80  80  20
KELLOGG        37  44  39  41  30  31 /  60  80  60  90 100  50
MOSES LAKE     38  52  41  51  27  31 /  10  10  20  30  30  10
WENATCHEE      39  47  41  48  29  30 /  10  10  30  30  20  10
OMAK           34  43  37  41  16  20 /  30  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEAST
     MOUNTAINS-SPOKANE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-WATERVILLE
     PLATEAU.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 262343
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
343 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD AND BREEZY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THANKSGIVING WITH
AREAS OF DENSE FOG. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES. MOTORISTS WITH PLANS TO TRAVEL OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
SHOULD EXPERIENCE GOOD CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WILL BRING WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AND
MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY: THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DIRTY UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE. IN GENERAL, THE RIDGE IS BRINGING MUCH WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION (AT LEAST IN THE MIDLEVELS) AND IS SHOVING THE MOIST
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN BC. BECAUSE THE RIDGE HAS
FULLY TRANSLATED EAST, SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS COMING DOWN THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND CONTINUING TO BRING LIGHT RAIN
AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW INTO THE NORTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE. THE
BIGGEST IMPACTS FROM THE WARMING ALOFT IS A MOIST INVERSION OVER
THE BASIN DELIVERING WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. DENSE FOG HAS
PLAGUED THE UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AS OF 2PM...THE WORSE VISIBILITIES
WERE FOUND ALONG HWY 2 FROM AIRWAY HEIGHTS TO WATERVILLE AND
NORTHWARD ALONG HWY 395 BETWEEN SPOKANE AND COLVILLE. AS SUCH, A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

AS WE GO INTO THE NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING, THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
AND THE MOIST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG BACK INTO WASHINGTON AND
NORTHERN IDAHO. WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF COOLING NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY BUT RATHER AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION. THE GOOD
NEWS IS WINDS SHOULD BEGIN PICKING UP AND WE WILL LOSE THE POCKETS
OF COOLER AIR IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS RESULTING IN SNOW LEVELS
BETWEEN 5-6K FT. MODEST WESTERLY FLOW WITHIN THE 850-700MB LAYER
WILL DELIVER SOMEWHAT OF A RAIN SHADOW IN THE BASIN BUT ADD LIFT
TO THE ALREADY STRONG ISENTROPIC OMEGA OVER THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

UNDER THIS PATTERN, A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE REGION. TODAY FOR INSTANCE, WE ARE SEEING HIGHS IN THE
30`S NORTH TO 60`S IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MTNS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DROP VERY LITTLE FROM THE CURRENT READINGS (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE 60`S IN THE SOUTHEAST) THEN TOMORROW WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD 40S AND 50S WITH A FEW 60`S IF THE
WINDS CAN EFFICIENCY MIX TO THE VALLEY FLOORS.  /SB

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COMPLEX INTERPLAY BETWEEN AN
INITIALLY VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND A STRONG ARCTIC PUSH WILL BRING
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...FEATURING WET AND WINDY BUT SURPRISINGLY MILD LATE
NOVEMBER CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A
STARK DRYING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO PLUNGE LIKE A
ROCK ON SATURDAY.

TWO FEATURES OF NOTE ON PACIFIC SATELLITE ARE THE DEEP CLOSED LOW
SPINNING OFF THE COAST...HOSTING A VERY MOIST AIR MASS...AND AN
INCIPIENT ARCTIC ORIGIN TROUGH BARELY PERCEPTIBLE ON SATELLITE
OVER THE YUKON DROPPING INTO NORTHERN BC THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY AND
HONING IN ON A SOLUTION THAT INVOLVES THE DIGGING ARCTIC TROUGH
PICKING UP AND ENHANCING THE PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA INTO A LONG RUNNING SEMI-OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION PATTERN
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG PUSH OF VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR DOWN THE OKANOGAN
VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY EXCHANGING THE CURRENT MOIST MARITIME AIR
MASS OVER THE REGION WITH A BONE DRY AND COLD AIR MASS.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL INCLUDE A MOIST OROGRAPHIC PATTERN WITH
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS PROMOTING A DECENT RAIN
SHADOW OVER THE BASIN...WITH SNOW LEVELS IN THIS MILD MARITIME
AIR MASS MAINTAINING BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET. ON FRIDAY A DEEP
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM TO THE NORTH AND DEEPEN
AGGRESSIVELY UNDER THE DYNAMIC JET REGION AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
TROUGH AS IT DESCENDS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND INCLUDE
MOST OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME VERY GUSTY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EXPOSED BASIN TERRAIN...AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING 45 TO 50 MPH GUST POTENTIAL IN THE
MIXED LAYER. THIS WILL ALSO PROMOTE CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE NOW EXITING
SURFACE LOW WITH AN IMPRESSIVELY STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT SETTING
UP DOWN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSING THE DEEP
BASIN BY SATURDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER POTENTIAL WIND ADVISORY OR
EVEN A HIGH WIND WARNING PATTERN THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
AND REFINED ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON A STARK
CLEARING TREND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WILL BECOME APPARENT AS VERY
DRY AIR INVADES THE REGION. AS SNOW LEVELS QUICKLY DROP
PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUICKLY ENDING SO NO WINTER STORM HIGHLIGHTS
ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY MAY START OUT AT THEIR
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND EITHER REMAIN STEADY OR PLUNGE DURING THE
DAY. /FUGAZZI

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: A TROUGH WILL EXIT THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW EXTENDING FROM
PULLMAN SOUTH TOWARD THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND CAMAS PRAIRIE. THE
FLOW WILL TURN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL BRING IN COLD
CANADIAN AIR. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 7-14 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOW TEENS WILL BE COMMON. BELOW ZERO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR THE METHOW AND OKANOGAN VALLEYS. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE
MODELS AGREE ON SHOWING A BROAD RIDGE IN PLACE WITH VERY DRY
CONDITIONS. HAVE TAKEN OUT ALL PREVIOUS MENTION OF SNOW AND
DECREASED SKY COVER. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG, BUT AM
NOT CONFIDENT QUITE YET AS TO WHERE IT WOULD FORM. WILL HAVE TO
WAIT TO SEE HOW MUCH DRYING WE GET BEHIND THE TROUGH.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH THE EC AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE TWO...MAINLY BEING THE GFS TAKES THE MAIN ENERGY AND
SLIDES IT ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WHERE THE EC DIGS IT FURTHER
SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. SO WE HAVE SOME DISCREPANCIES AS TO WHERE THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL SET UP. RIGHT NOW AM TRENDING
MORE TOWARDS THE WETTER/SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS AND HAVE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN WA AND ALL OF THE ID
PANHANDLE. THIS IS QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THAT HAD A CHANCE OF PRECIP JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. AFTER
THE TROUGH PASSES MONDAY ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE SETS UP ACROSS THE
INLAND NORTHWEST. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WA AND THE LC VALLEY/CAMAS PRAIRIE AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL START TO MODERATE A BIT, BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. /NISBET

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROMOTE WIDESPREAD IFR
AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN THROUGH
06Z...AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KPUW AND KLWS. AFTER 06Z A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL CREATE A
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT BREEZE WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
VISIBILITIES AND MARGINAL CEILING IMPROVEMENT...HOWEVER SINCE THIS
WILL BE DEVELOPING AT NIGHT AND THUS INVOLVING A NOCTURNAL
INVERSION LOCKING IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CONFIDENCE IS ONLY
MODERATE FOR THIS IMPROVEMENT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY
WHEN DIURNAL MIXING WILL PLAY A LARGER ROLE IN BREAKING UP THE FOG
AND STRATUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        39  49  41  46  27  30 /  30  30  20  70  60  10
COEUR D`ALENE  36  47  41  45  29  31 /  30  40  40  80  70  20
PULLMAN        44  52  43  49  32  34 /  20  30  30  90  90  50
LEWISTON       43  55  46  53  38  40 /  10  10  20  60  70  60
COLVILLE       36  45  40  43  22  24 /  60  50  50  70  30  10
SANDPOINT      33  45  38  42  26  26 /  70  60  70  80  80  20
KELLOGG        37  44  39  41  30  31 /  60  80  60  90 100  50
MOSES LAKE     38  52  41  51  27  31 /  10  10  20  30  30  10
WENATCHEE      39  47  41  48  29  30 /  10  10  30  30  20  10
OMAK           34  43  37  41  16  20 /  30  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEAST
     MOUNTAINS-SPOKANE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-WATERVILLE
     PLATEAU.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 262343
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
343 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD AND BREEZY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THANKSGIVING WITH
AREAS OF DENSE FOG. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES. MOTORISTS WITH PLANS TO TRAVEL OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
SHOULD EXPERIENCE GOOD CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WILL BRING WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AND
MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY: THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DIRTY UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE. IN GENERAL, THE RIDGE IS BRINGING MUCH WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION (AT LEAST IN THE MIDLEVELS) AND IS SHOVING THE MOIST
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN BC. BECAUSE THE RIDGE HAS
FULLY TRANSLATED EAST, SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS COMING DOWN THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND CONTINUING TO BRING LIGHT RAIN
AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW INTO THE NORTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE. THE
BIGGEST IMPACTS FROM THE WARMING ALOFT IS A MOIST INVERSION OVER
THE BASIN DELIVERING WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. DENSE FOG HAS
PLAGUED THE UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AS OF 2PM...THE WORSE VISIBILITIES
WERE FOUND ALONG HWY 2 FROM AIRWAY HEIGHTS TO WATERVILLE AND
NORTHWARD ALONG HWY 395 BETWEEN SPOKANE AND COLVILLE. AS SUCH, A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

AS WE GO INTO THE NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING, THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
AND THE MOIST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG BACK INTO WASHINGTON AND
NORTHERN IDAHO. WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF COOLING NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY BUT RATHER AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION. THE GOOD
NEWS IS WINDS SHOULD BEGIN PICKING UP AND WE WILL LOSE THE POCKETS
OF COOLER AIR IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS RESULTING IN SNOW LEVELS
BETWEEN 5-6K FT. MODEST WESTERLY FLOW WITHIN THE 850-700MB LAYER
WILL DELIVER SOMEWHAT OF A RAIN SHADOW IN THE BASIN BUT ADD LIFT
TO THE ALREADY STRONG ISENTROPIC OMEGA OVER THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

UNDER THIS PATTERN, A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE REGION. TODAY FOR INSTANCE, WE ARE SEEING HIGHS IN THE
30`S NORTH TO 60`S IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MTNS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DROP VERY LITTLE FROM THE CURRENT READINGS (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE 60`S IN THE SOUTHEAST) THEN TOMORROW WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD 40S AND 50S WITH A FEW 60`S IF THE
WINDS CAN EFFICIENCY MIX TO THE VALLEY FLOORS.  /SB

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COMPLEX INTERPLAY BETWEEN AN
INITIALLY VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND A STRONG ARCTIC PUSH WILL BRING
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...FEATURING WET AND WINDY BUT SURPRISINGLY MILD LATE
NOVEMBER CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A
STARK DRYING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO PLUNGE LIKE A
ROCK ON SATURDAY.

TWO FEATURES OF NOTE ON PACIFIC SATELLITE ARE THE DEEP CLOSED LOW
SPINNING OFF THE COAST...HOSTING A VERY MOIST AIR MASS...AND AN
INCIPIENT ARCTIC ORIGIN TROUGH BARELY PERCEPTIBLE ON SATELLITE
OVER THE YUKON DROPPING INTO NORTHERN BC THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY AND
HONING IN ON A SOLUTION THAT INVOLVES THE DIGGING ARCTIC TROUGH
PICKING UP AND ENHANCING THE PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA INTO A LONG RUNNING SEMI-OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION PATTERN
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG PUSH OF VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR DOWN THE OKANOGAN
VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY EXCHANGING THE CURRENT MOIST MARITIME AIR
MASS OVER THE REGION WITH A BONE DRY AND COLD AIR MASS.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL INCLUDE A MOIST OROGRAPHIC PATTERN WITH
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS PROMOTING A DECENT RAIN
SHADOW OVER THE BASIN...WITH SNOW LEVELS IN THIS MILD MARITIME
AIR MASS MAINTAINING BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET. ON FRIDAY A DEEP
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM TO THE NORTH AND DEEPEN
AGGRESSIVELY UNDER THE DYNAMIC JET REGION AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
TROUGH AS IT DESCENDS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND INCLUDE
MOST OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME VERY GUSTY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EXPOSED BASIN TERRAIN...AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING 45 TO 50 MPH GUST POTENTIAL IN THE
MIXED LAYER. THIS WILL ALSO PROMOTE CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE NOW EXITING
SURFACE LOW WITH AN IMPRESSIVELY STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT SETTING
UP DOWN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSING THE DEEP
BASIN BY SATURDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER POTENTIAL WIND ADVISORY OR
EVEN A HIGH WIND WARNING PATTERN THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
AND REFINED ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON A STARK
CLEARING TREND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WILL BECOME APPARENT AS VERY
DRY AIR INVADES THE REGION. AS SNOW LEVELS QUICKLY DROP
PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUICKLY ENDING SO NO WINTER STORM HIGHLIGHTS
ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY MAY START OUT AT THEIR
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND EITHER REMAIN STEADY OR PLUNGE DURING THE
DAY. /FUGAZZI

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: A TROUGH WILL EXIT THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW EXTENDING FROM
PULLMAN SOUTH TOWARD THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND CAMAS PRAIRIE. THE
FLOW WILL TURN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL BRING IN COLD
CANADIAN AIR. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 7-14 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOW TEENS WILL BE COMMON. BELOW ZERO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR THE METHOW AND OKANOGAN VALLEYS. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE
MODELS AGREE ON SHOWING A BROAD RIDGE IN PLACE WITH VERY DRY
CONDITIONS. HAVE TAKEN OUT ALL PREVIOUS MENTION OF SNOW AND
DECREASED SKY COVER. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG, BUT AM
NOT CONFIDENT QUITE YET AS TO WHERE IT WOULD FORM. WILL HAVE TO
WAIT TO SEE HOW MUCH DRYING WE GET BEHIND THE TROUGH.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH THE EC AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE TWO...MAINLY BEING THE GFS TAKES THE MAIN ENERGY AND
SLIDES IT ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WHERE THE EC DIGS IT FURTHER
SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. SO WE HAVE SOME DISCREPANCIES AS TO WHERE THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL SET UP. RIGHT NOW AM TRENDING
MORE TOWARDS THE WETTER/SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS AND HAVE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN WA AND ALL OF THE ID
PANHANDLE. THIS IS QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THAT HAD A CHANCE OF PRECIP JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. AFTER
THE TROUGH PASSES MONDAY ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE SETS UP ACROSS THE
INLAND NORTHWEST. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WA AND THE LC VALLEY/CAMAS PRAIRIE AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL START TO MODERATE A BIT, BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. /NISBET

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROMOTE WIDESPREAD IFR
AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN THROUGH
06Z...AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KPUW AND KLWS. AFTER 06Z A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL CREATE A
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT BREEZE WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
VISIBILITIES AND MARGINAL CEILING IMPROVEMENT...HOWEVER SINCE THIS
WILL BE DEVELOPING AT NIGHT AND THUS INVOLVING A NOCTURNAL
INVERSION LOCKING IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CONFIDENCE IS ONLY
MODERATE FOR THIS IMPROVEMENT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY
WHEN DIURNAL MIXING WILL PLAY A LARGER ROLE IN BREAKING UP THE FOG
AND STRATUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        39  49  41  46  27  30 /  30  30  20  70  60  10
COEUR D`ALENE  36  47  41  45  29  31 /  30  40  40  80  70  20
PULLMAN        44  52  43  49  32  34 /  20  30  30  90  90  50
LEWISTON       43  55  46  53  38  40 /  10  10  20  60  70  60
COLVILLE       36  45  40  43  22  24 /  60  50  50  70  30  10
SANDPOINT      33  45  38  42  26  26 /  70  60  70  80  80  20
KELLOGG        37  44  39  41  30  31 /  60  80  60  90 100  50
MOSES LAKE     38  52  41  51  27  31 /  10  10  20  30  30  10
WENATCHEE      39  47  41  48  29  30 /  10  10  30  30  20  10
OMAK           34  43  37  41  16  20 /  30  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEAST
     MOUNTAINS-SPOKANE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-WATERVILLE
     PLATEAU.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 262343
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
343 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD AND BREEZY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THANKSGIVING WITH
AREAS OF DENSE FOG. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES. MOTORISTS WITH PLANS TO TRAVEL OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
SHOULD EXPERIENCE GOOD CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WILL BRING WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AND
MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY: THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DIRTY UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE. IN GENERAL, THE RIDGE IS BRINGING MUCH WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION (AT LEAST IN THE MIDLEVELS) AND IS SHOVING THE MOIST
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN BC. BECAUSE THE RIDGE HAS
FULLY TRANSLATED EAST, SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS COMING DOWN THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND CONTINUING TO BRING LIGHT RAIN
AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW INTO THE NORTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE. THE
BIGGEST IMPACTS FROM THE WARMING ALOFT IS A MOIST INVERSION OVER
THE BASIN DELIVERING WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. DENSE FOG HAS
PLAGUED THE UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AS OF 2PM...THE WORSE VISIBILITIES
WERE FOUND ALONG HWY 2 FROM AIRWAY HEIGHTS TO WATERVILLE AND
NORTHWARD ALONG HWY 395 BETWEEN SPOKANE AND COLVILLE. AS SUCH, A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

AS WE GO INTO THE NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING, THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
AND THE MOIST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG BACK INTO WASHINGTON AND
NORTHERN IDAHO. WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF COOLING NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY BUT RATHER AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION. THE GOOD
NEWS IS WINDS SHOULD BEGIN PICKING UP AND WE WILL LOSE THE POCKETS
OF COOLER AIR IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS RESULTING IN SNOW LEVELS
BETWEEN 5-6K FT. MODEST WESTERLY FLOW WITHIN THE 850-700MB LAYER
WILL DELIVER SOMEWHAT OF A RAIN SHADOW IN THE BASIN BUT ADD LIFT
TO THE ALREADY STRONG ISENTROPIC OMEGA OVER THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

UNDER THIS PATTERN, A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE REGION. TODAY FOR INSTANCE, WE ARE SEEING HIGHS IN THE
30`S NORTH TO 60`S IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MTNS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DROP VERY LITTLE FROM THE CURRENT READINGS (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE 60`S IN THE SOUTHEAST) THEN TOMORROW WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD 40S AND 50S WITH A FEW 60`S IF THE
WINDS CAN EFFICIENCY MIX TO THE VALLEY FLOORS.  /SB

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COMPLEX INTERPLAY BETWEEN AN
INITIALLY VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND A STRONG ARCTIC PUSH WILL BRING
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...FEATURING WET AND WINDY BUT SURPRISINGLY MILD LATE
NOVEMBER CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A
STARK DRYING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO PLUNGE LIKE A
ROCK ON SATURDAY.

TWO FEATURES OF NOTE ON PACIFIC SATELLITE ARE THE DEEP CLOSED LOW
SPINNING OFF THE COAST...HOSTING A VERY MOIST AIR MASS...AND AN
INCIPIENT ARCTIC ORIGIN TROUGH BARELY PERCEPTIBLE ON SATELLITE
OVER THE YUKON DROPPING INTO NORTHERN BC THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY AND
HONING IN ON A SOLUTION THAT INVOLVES THE DIGGING ARCTIC TROUGH
PICKING UP AND ENHANCING THE PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA INTO A LONG RUNNING SEMI-OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION PATTERN
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG PUSH OF VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR DOWN THE OKANOGAN
VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY EXCHANGING THE CURRENT MOIST MARITIME AIR
MASS OVER THE REGION WITH A BONE DRY AND COLD AIR MASS.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL INCLUDE A MOIST OROGRAPHIC PATTERN WITH
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS PROMOTING A DECENT RAIN
SHADOW OVER THE BASIN...WITH SNOW LEVELS IN THIS MILD MARITIME
AIR MASS MAINTAINING BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET. ON FRIDAY A DEEP
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM TO THE NORTH AND DEEPEN
AGGRESSIVELY UNDER THE DYNAMIC JET REGION AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
TROUGH AS IT DESCENDS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND INCLUDE
MOST OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME VERY GUSTY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EXPOSED BASIN TERRAIN...AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING 45 TO 50 MPH GUST POTENTIAL IN THE
MIXED LAYER. THIS WILL ALSO PROMOTE CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE NOW EXITING
SURFACE LOW WITH AN IMPRESSIVELY STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT SETTING
UP DOWN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSING THE DEEP
BASIN BY SATURDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER POTENTIAL WIND ADVISORY OR
EVEN A HIGH WIND WARNING PATTERN THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
AND REFINED ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON A STARK
CLEARING TREND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WILL BECOME APPARENT AS VERY
DRY AIR INVADES THE REGION. AS SNOW LEVELS QUICKLY DROP
PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUICKLY ENDING SO NO WINTER STORM HIGHLIGHTS
ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY MAY START OUT AT THEIR
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND EITHER REMAIN STEADY OR PLUNGE DURING THE
DAY. /FUGAZZI

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: A TROUGH WILL EXIT THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW EXTENDING FROM
PULLMAN SOUTH TOWARD THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND CAMAS PRAIRIE. THE
FLOW WILL TURN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL BRING IN COLD
CANADIAN AIR. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 7-14 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOW TEENS WILL BE COMMON. BELOW ZERO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR THE METHOW AND OKANOGAN VALLEYS. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE
MODELS AGREE ON SHOWING A BROAD RIDGE IN PLACE WITH VERY DRY
CONDITIONS. HAVE TAKEN OUT ALL PREVIOUS MENTION OF SNOW AND
DECREASED SKY COVER. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG, BUT AM
NOT CONFIDENT QUITE YET AS TO WHERE IT WOULD FORM. WILL HAVE TO
WAIT TO SEE HOW MUCH DRYING WE GET BEHIND THE TROUGH.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH THE EC AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE TWO...MAINLY BEING THE GFS TAKES THE MAIN ENERGY AND
SLIDES IT ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WHERE THE EC DIGS IT FURTHER
SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. SO WE HAVE SOME DISCREPANCIES AS TO WHERE THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL SET UP. RIGHT NOW AM TRENDING
MORE TOWARDS THE WETTER/SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS AND HAVE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN WA AND ALL OF THE ID
PANHANDLE. THIS IS QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THAT HAD A CHANCE OF PRECIP JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. AFTER
THE TROUGH PASSES MONDAY ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE SETS UP ACROSS THE
INLAND NORTHWEST. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WA AND THE LC VALLEY/CAMAS PRAIRIE AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL START TO MODERATE A BIT, BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. /NISBET

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROMOTE WIDESPREAD IFR
AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN THROUGH
06Z...AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KPUW AND KLWS. AFTER 06Z A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL CREATE A
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT BREEZE WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
VISIBILITIES AND MARGINAL CEILING IMPROVEMENT...HOWEVER SINCE THIS
WILL BE DEVELOPING AT NIGHT AND THUS INVOLVING A NOCTURNAL
INVERSION LOCKING IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CONFIDENCE IS ONLY
MODERATE FOR THIS IMPROVEMENT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY
WHEN DIURNAL MIXING WILL PLAY A LARGER ROLE IN BREAKING UP THE FOG
AND STRATUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        39  49  41  46  27  30 /  30  30  20  70  60  10
COEUR D`ALENE  36  47  41  45  29  31 /  30  40  40  80  70  20
PULLMAN        44  52  43  49  32  34 /  20  30  30  90  90  50
LEWISTON       43  55  46  53  38  40 /  10  10  20  60  70  60
COLVILLE       36  45  40  43  22  24 /  60  50  50  70  30  10
SANDPOINT      33  45  38  42  26  26 /  70  60  70  80  80  20
KELLOGG        37  44  39  41  30  31 /  60  80  60  90 100  50
MOSES LAKE     38  52  41  51  27  31 /  10  10  20  30  30  10
WENATCHEE      39  47  41  48  29  30 /  10  10  30  30  20  10
OMAK           34  43  37  41  16  20 /  30  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEAST
     MOUNTAINS-SPOKANE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-WATERVILLE
     PLATEAU.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 262232
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
231 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected tonight and Thanksgiving with
areas of dense fog. Snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Thursday: The region remains under a dirty upper-level
ridge. In general, the ridge is bringing much warmer air into the
region (at least in the midlevels) and is shoving the moist
frontal boundary northward into southern BC. Because the ridge has
not fully translated east, this moisture is coming down the
eastern periphery of the ridge and continuing to bring light rain
and high mountain snow into the northern Idaho Panhandle. A bigger
impact from the warming aloft is a moist inversion over the Basin
delivering widespread fog and low clouds. Dense fog has plagued
the Upper Columbia Basin through much of the day and will continue
for much of the night. As of 2PM...the worse visibilities were
found along Hwy 2 from Airway Heights to Waterville and northward
along Hwy 395 between Spokane and Colville. As such, a dense fog
advisory has been issued.

As we go into the night and Thanksgiving, the ridge will flatten
and the moist frontal boundary will sag back into Washington and
Northern Idaho. We will not see much in the way of cooling north
of the boundary but rather an increase in precipitation. The good
news is winds should begin picking up and we will lose the pockets
of cooler air in the northern valleys resulting in snow levels
between 5-6K ft. Modest westerly flow within the 850-700mb layer
will deliver somewhat of a rain shadow in the Basin but also add
lift to the already strong isentropic omega over the northern and
eastern mountains.

Under this pattern, a wide range of temperatures will be found
across the region. Today for instance, we are seeing highs in the
30`s north to 60`s in the foothills of the Blue Mtns. Overnight
lows will drop very little from the current readings (with the
exception of the 60`s in the southeast) then tomorrow will have
the potential for widespread 40s and 50s with a few 60`s if the
winds can efficiency mix to the valley floors.  /sb


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Recent rain/snow and warming aloft will promote areas
of fog and low clouds across most terminals this morning with
improving conditions expected through this evening. Areas of
LIFR/IFR fog currently stretches across the Upper Columbia Basin
from KCOE to KMWH. Confidence is low regarding exact timing for
improvements but gusty S/SW winds in the lower Basin should
promote improving conditions KPUW-KLWS by 20Z then expanding N
through 06z. KMWH/KEAT will carry the lower probabilities for
clearing. The upper-level ridge will flatten tomorrow suppressing
the moist frontal boundary back south lowering cigs btwn 4-6K ft
agl and incr the threat for light rain.  /sb





&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  49  41  46  27  30 /  30  30  20  70  60  10
Coeur d`Alene  36  47  41  45  29  31 /  30  40  40  80  70  20
Pullman        44  52  43  49  32  34 /  20  30  30  90  90  50
Lewiston       43  55  46  53  38  40 /  10  10  20  60  70  60
Colville       36  45  40  43  22  24 /  60  50  50  70  30  10
Sandpoint      33  45  38  42  26  26 /  70  60  70  80  80  20
Kellogg        37  44  39  41  30  31 /  60  80  60  90 100  50
Moses Lake     38  52  41  51  27  31 /  10  10  20  30  30  10
Wenatchee      39  47  41  48  29  30 /  10  10  30  30  20  10
Omak           34  43  37  41  16  20 /  30  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Northeast
     Mountains-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville
     Plateau.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 262232
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
231 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected tonight and Thanksgiving with
areas of dense fog. Snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Thursday: The region remains under a dirty upper-level
ridge. In general, the ridge is bringing much warmer air into the
region (at least in the midlevels) and is shoving the moist
frontal boundary northward into southern BC. Because the ridge has
not fully translated east, this moisture is coming down the
eastern periphery of the ridge and continuing to bring light rain
and high mountain snow into the northern Idaho Panhandle. A bigger
impact from the warming aloft is a moist inversion over the Basin
delivering widespread fog and low clouds. Dense fog has plagued
the Upper Columbia Basin through much of the day and will continue
for much of the night. As of 2PM...the worse visibilities were
found along Hwy 2 from Airway Heights to Waterville and northward
along Hwy 395 between Spokane and Colville. As such, a dense fog
advisory has been issued.

As we go into the night and Thanksgiving, the ridge will flatten
and the moist frontal boundary will sag back into Washington and
Northern Idaho. We will not see much in the way of cooling north
of the boundary but rather an increase in precipitation. The good
news is winds should begin picking up and we will lose the pockets
of cooler air in the northern valleys resulting in snow levels
between 5-6K ft. Modest westerly flow within the 850-700mb layer
will deliver somewhat of a rain shadow in the Basin but also add
lift to the already strong isentropic omega over the northern and
eastern mountains.

Under this pattern, a wide range of temperatures will be found
across the region. Today for instance, we are seeing highs in the
30`s north to 60`s in the foothills of the Blue Mtns. Overnight
lows will drop very little from the current readings (with the
exception of the 60`s in the southeast) then tomorrow will have
the potential for widespread 40s and 50s with a few 60`s if the
winds can efficiency mix to the valley floors.  /sb


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Recent rain/snow and warming aloft will promote areas
of fog and low clouds across most terminals this morning with
improving conditions expected through this evening. Areas of
LIFR/IFR fog currently stretches across the Upper Columbia Basin
from KCOE to KMWH. Confidence is low regarding exact timing for
improvements but gusty S/SW winds in the lower Basin should
promote improving conditions KPUW-KLWS by 20Z then expanding N
through 06z. KMWH/KEAT will carry the lower probabilities for
clearing. The upper-level ridge will flatten tomorrow suppressing
the moist frontal boundary back south lowering cigs btwn 4-6K ft
agl and incr the threat for light rain.  /sb





&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  49  41  46  27  30 /  30  30  20  70  60  10
Coeur d`Alene  36  47  41  45  29  31 /  30  40  40  80  70  20
Pullman        44  52  43  49  32  34 /  20  30  30  90  90  50
Lewiston       43  55  46  53  38  40 /  10  10  20  60  70  60
Colville       36  45  40  43  22  24 /  60  50  50  70  30  10
Sandpoint      33  45  38  42  26  26 /  70  60  70  80  80  20
Kellogg        37  44  39  41  30  31 /  60  80  60  90 100  50
Moses Lake     38  52  41  51  27  31 /  10  10  20  30  30  10
Wenatchee      39  47  41  48  29  30 /  10  10  30  30  20  10
Omak           34  43  37  41  16  20 /  30  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Northeast
     Mountains-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville
     Plateau.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 262228
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
228 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected tonight and Thanksgiving with
areas of dense fog. Snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Thursday: The region remains under a dirty upper-level
ridge. In general, the ridge is bringing much warmer air into the
region (at least in the midlevels) and is shoving the moist
frontal boundary northward into southern BC. Because the ridge has
fully translated east, some of this moisture is coming down the
eastern periphery of the ridge and continuing to bring light rain
and high mountain snow into the northern Idaho Panhandle. The
biggest impacts from the warming aloft is a moist inversion over
the Basin delivering widespread fog and low clouds. Dense fog has
plagued the Upper Columbia Basin through much of the day and will
continue for much of the night. As of 2PM...the worse visibilities
were found along Hwy 2 from Airway Heights to Waterville and
northward along Hwy 395 between Spokane and Colville. As such, a
dense fog advisory has been issued.

As we go into the night and Thanksgiving, the ridge will flatten
and the moist frontal boundary will sag back into Washington and
Northern Idaho. We will not see much in the way of cooling north
of the boundary but rather an increase in precipitation. The good
news is winds should begin picking up and we will lose the pockets
of cooler air in the northern valleys resulting in snow levels
between 5-6K ft. Modest westerly flow within the 850-700mb layer
will deliver somewhat of a rain shadow in the Basin but add lift
to the already strong isentropic omega over the northern and
eastern mountains.

Under this pattern, a wide range of temperatures will be found
across the region. Today for instance, we are seeing highs in the
30`s north to 60`s in the foothills of the Blue Mtns. Overnight
lows will drop very little from the current readings (with the
exception of the 60`s in the southeast) then tomorrow will have
the potential for widespread 40s and 50s with a few 60`s if the
winds can efficiency mix to the valley floors.  /sb

Thursday night through Saturday...A complex interplay between an
initially very moist air mass and a strong arctic push will bring
a very active weather regime to the region through this
period...featuring wet and windy but surprisingly mild late
November conditions Thursday night through Friday night...with a
stark drying trend with temperatures beginning to plunge like a
rock on Saturday.

Two features of note on Pacific satellite are the deep closed low
spinning off the coast...hosting a very moist air mass...and an
incipient arctic origin trough barely perceptible on satellite
over the Yukon dropping into northern BC this afternoon. The
latest GFS and ECMWF models are in better agreement today and
honing in on a solution that involves the digging arctic trough
picking up and enhancing the Pacific moisture over the forecast
area into a long running semi-orographic precipitation pattern
followed by a strong push of very dry arctic air down the Okanogan
Valley and eventually exchanging the current moist maritime air
mass over the region with a bone dry and cold air mass.

Thursday night will include a moist orographic pattern with
strong westerly flow across the mountains promoting a decent rain
shadow over the basin...with snow levels in this mild maritime
air mass maintaining between 5000 and 6000 feet. On Friday a deep
surface low pressure will form to the north and deepen
aggressively under the dynamic jet region ahead of the incoming
trough as it descends through the forecast area. This will allow
rain and high mountain snow to become more widespread and include
most of the Columbia Basin during the day Friday. Winds will
become very gusty during Friday afternoon especially over the
exposed basin terrain...and a Wind Advisory may be necessary with
model soundings suggesting 45 to 50 mph gust potential in the
mixed layer. This will also promote continued mild temperatures.

Friday night the arctic cold front will follow the now exiting
surface low with an impressively strong northerly gradient setting
up down the Okanogan Valley and eventually encompassing the deep
basin by Saturday. This is another potential Wind Advisory or
even a High Wind Warning pattern that will need to be monitored
and refined on subsequent shifts. By Saturday afternoon a stark
clearing trend from north to south will become apparent as very
dry air invades the region. As snow levels quickly drop
precipitation will be quickly ending so no winter storm highlights
are expected. Temperatures on Saturday may start out at their
high temperatures and either remain steady or plunge during the
day. /Fugazzi

Saturday Night through Sunday Night: A trough will exit the
region Saturday night with the best chance of snow extending from
Pullman south toward the Blue Mountains and Camas Prairie. The
flow will turn north to northeasterly which will bring in cold
Canadian air. Min temperatures will be about 7-14 degrees below
average for this time of the year. Temps in the single digits to
low teens will be common. Below zero is not out of the question
for the Methow and Okanogan Valleys. Sunday and Sunday Night the
models agree on showing a broad ridge in place with very dry
conditions. Have taken out all previous mention of snow and
decreased sky cover. There is the potential for valley fog, but am
not confident quite yet as to where it would form. Will have to
wait to see how much drying we get behind the trough.

Monday through Wednesday: Both the EC and GFS show another trough
moving through the area on Monday. There are some discrepancies
between the two...mainly being the GFS takes the main energy and
slides it along the Canadian border where the EC digs it further
south into our area. So we have some discrepancies as to where the
best chance of rain and snow will set up. Right now am trending
more towards the wetter/slightly warmer GFS and have chance of
precipitation across extreme eastern WA and all of the ID
Panhandle. This is quite a bit different from the previous
forecast that had a chance of precip just about everywhere. After
the trough passes Monday another broad ridge sets up across the
Inland Northwest. The best chance of precip will remain across
southeast WA and the LC Valley/Camas Prairie areas. Temperatures
will start to moderate a bit, but will still be below average for
this time of the year. /Nisbet

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Recent rain/snow and warming aloft will promote areas
of fog and low clouds across most terminals this morning with
improving conditions expected through this evening. Areas of
LIFR/IFR fog currently stretches across the Upper Columbia Basin
from KCOE to KMWH. Confidence is low regarding exact timing for
improvements but gusty S/SW winds in the lower Basin should
promote improving conditions KPUW-KLWS by 20Z then expanding N
through 06z. KMWH/KEAT will carry the lower probabilities for
clearing. The upper-level ridge will flatten tomorrow suppressing
the moist frontal boundary back south lowering cigs btwn 4-6K ft
agl and incr the threat for light rain.  /sb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  49  41  46  27  30 /  30  30  20  70  60  10
Coeur d`Alene  36  47  41  45  29  31 /  30  40  40  80  70  20
Pullman        44  52  43  49  32  34 /  20  30  30  90  90  50
Lewiston       43  55  46  53  38  40 /  10  10  20  60  70  60
Colville       36  45  40  43  22  24 /  60  50  50  70  30  10
Sandpoint      33  45  38  42  26  26 /  70  60  70  80  80  20
Kellogg        37  44  39  41  30  31 /  60  80  60  90 100  50
Moses Lake     38  52  41  51  27  31 /  10  10  20  30  30  10
Wenatchee      39  47  41  48  29  30 /  10  10  30  30  20  10
Omak           34  43  37  41  16  20 /  30  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Northeast
     Mountains-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville
     Plateau.

&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 262228
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
228 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected tonight and Thanksgiving with
areas of dense fog. Snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Thursday: The region remains under a dirty upper-level
ridge. In general, the ridge is bringing much warmer air into the
region (at least in the midlevels) and is shoving the moist
frontal boundary northward into southern BC. Because the ridge has
fully translated east, some of this moisture is coming down the
eastern periphery of the ridge and continuing to bring light rain
and high mountain snow into the northern Idaho Panhandle. The
biggest impacts from the warming aloft is a moist inversion over
the Basin delivering widespread fog and low clouds. Dense fog has
plagued the Upper Columbia Basin through much of the day and will
continue for much of the night. As of 2PM...the worse visibilities
were found along Hwy 2 from Airway Heights to Waterville and
northward along Hwy 395 between Spokane and Colville. As such, a
dense fog advisory has been issued.

As we go into the night and Thanksgiving, the ridge will flatten
and the moist frontal boundary will sag back into Washington and
Northern Idaho. We will not see much in the way of cooling north
of the boundary but rather an increase in precipitation. The good
news is winds should begin picking up and we will lose the pockets
of cooler air in the northern valleys resulting in snow levels
between 5-6K ft. Modest westerly flow within the 850-700mb layer
will deliver somewhat of a rain shadow in the Basin but add lift
to the already strong isentropic omega over the northern and
eastern mountains.

Under this pattern, a wide range of temperatures will be found
across the region. Today for instance, we are seeing highs in the
30`s north to 60`s in the foothills of the Blue Mtns. Overnight
lows will drop very little from the current readings (with the
exception of the 60`s in the southeast) then tomorrow will have
the potential for widespread 40s and 50s with a few 60`s if the
winds can efficiency mix to the valley floors.  /sb

Thursday night through Saturday...A complex interplay between an
initially very moist air mass and a strong arctic push will bring
a very active weather regime to the region through this
period...featuring wet and windy but surprisingly mild late
November conditions Thursday night through Friday night...with a
stark drying trend with temperatures beginning to plunge like a
rock on Saturday.

Two features of note on Pacific satellite are the deep closed low
spinning off the coast...hosting a very moist air mass...and an
incipient arctic origin trough barely perceptible on satellite
over the Yukon dropping into northern BC this afternoon. The
latest GFS and ECMWF models are in better agreement today and
honing in on a solution that involves the digging arctic trough
picking up and enhancing the Pacific moisture over the forecast
area into a long running semi-orographic precipitation pattern
followed by a strong push of very dry arctic air down the Okanogan
Valley and eventually exchanging the current moist maritime air
mass over the region with a bone dry and cold air mass.

Thursday night will include a moist orographic pattern with
strong westerly flow across the mountains promoting a decent rain
shadow over the basin...with snow levels in this mild maritime
air mass maintaining between 5000 and 6000 feet. On Friday a deep
surface low pressure will form to the north and deepen
aggressively under the dynamic jet region ahead of the incoming
trough as it descends through the forecast area. This will allow
rain and high mountain snow to become more widespread and include
most of the Columbia Basin during the day Friday. Winds will
become very gusty during Friday afternoon especially over the
exposed basin terrain...and a Wind Advisory may be necessary with
model soundings suggesting 45 to 50 mph gust potential in the
mixed layer. This will also promote continued mild temperatures.

Friday night the arctic cold front will follow the now exiting
surface low with an impressively strong northerly gradient setting
up down the Okanogan Valley and eventually encompassing the deep
basin by Saturday. This is another potential Wind Advisory or
even a High Wind Warning pattern that will need to be monitored
and refined on subsequent shifts. By Saturday afternoon a stark
clearing trend from north to south will become apparent as very
dry air invades the region. As snow levels quickly drop
precipitation will be quickly ending so no winter storm highlights
are expected. Temperatures on Saturday may start out at their
high temperatures and either remain steady or plunge during the
day. /Fugazzi

Saturday Night through Sunday Night: A trough will exit the
region Saturday night with the best chance of snow extending from
Pullman south toward the Blue Mountains and Camas Prairie. The
flow will turn north to northeasterly which will bring in cold
Canadian air. Min temperatures will be about 7-14 degrees below
average for this time of the year. Temps in the single digits to
low teens will be common. Below zero is not out of the question
for the Methow and Okanogan Valleys. Sunday and Sunday Night the
models agree on showing a broad ridge in place with very dry
conditions. Have taken out all previous mention of snow and
decreased sky cover. There is the potential for valley fog, but am
not confident quite yet as to where it would form. Will have to
wait to see how much drying we get behind the trough.

Monday through Wednesday: Both the EC and GFS show another trough
moving through the area on Monday. There are some discrepancies
between the two...mainly being the GFS takes the main energy and
slides it along the Canadian border where the EC digs it further
south into our area. So we have some discrepancies as to where the
best chance of rain and snow will set up. Right now am trending
more towards the wetter/slightly warmer GFS and have chance of
precipitation across extreme eastern WA and all of the ID
Panhandle. This is quite a bit different from the previous
forecast that had a chance of precip just about everywhere. After
the trough passes Monday another broad ridge sets up across the
Inland Northwest. The best chance of precip will remain across
southeast WA and the LC Valley/Camas Prairie areas. Temperatures
will start to moderate a bit, but will still be below average for
this time of the year. /Nisbet

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Recent rain/snow and warming aloft will promote areas
of fog and low clouds across most terminals this morning with
improving conditions expected through this evening. Areas of
LIFR/IFR fog currently stretches across the Upper Columbia Basin
from KCOE to KMWH. Confidence is low regarding exact timing for
improvements but gusty S/SW winds in the lower Basin should
promote improving conditions KPUW-KLWS by 20Z then expanding N
through 06z. KMWH/KEAT will carry the lower probabilities for
clearing. The upper-level ridge will flatten tomorrow suppressing
the moist frontal boundary back south lowering cigs btwn 4-6K ft
agl and incr the threat for light rain.  /sb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  49  41  46  27  30 /  30  30  20  70  60  10
Coeur d`Alene  36  47  41  45  29  31 /  30  40  40  80  70  20
Pullman        44  52  43  49  32  34 /  20  30  30  90  90  50
Lewiston       43  55  46  53  38  40 /  10  10  20  60  70  60
Colville       36  45  40  43  22  24 /  60  50  50  70  30  10
Sandpoint      33  45  38  42  26  26 /  70  60  70  80  80  20
Kellogg        37  44  39  41  30  31 /  60  80  60  90 100  50
Moses Lake     38  52  41  51  27  31 /  10  10  20  30  30  10
Wenatchee      39  47  41  48  29  30 /  10  10  30  30  20  10
Omak           34  43  37  41  16  20 /  30  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Northeast
     Mountains-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville
     Plateau.

&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 262159
AFDPQR

FXUS66 KPQR DDHHMM
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
200 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST WED AFTERNOON WILL PUSH
SLOWLY INLAND TONIGHT AND THU. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER WESTERN
OREGON THU NIGHT AND FRI...THEN ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE S THROUGH THE REGION FRI NIGHT USHERING COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRES OVER THE INTERIOR NW WILL TURN THE FLOW OFFSHORE
BY SUN FOR DRY BUT COLD WEATHER. SUN NIGHT AND MON A SYSTEM COMING
UP FROM THE S WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION UP OVER THE
COLD AIR MASS LEFT OVER FROM THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS OFFSHORE WED AFTERNOON...WITH
LAYERED CLOUDS SPREAD OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SHIFTS E TONIGHT AND THU THE FLOW
WILL TURN MORE TO THE SW...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AGREE IN SHOWING MOISTURE INITIALLY IN THEMID AND
HIGH LEVELS...ABOVE 700MB. BY LATE TONIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO
SPREAD IN IN THE LOWER LEVELS. DYNAMICS WITH THIS FRONT HOWEVER ON
THE WEAK SIDE...SO WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT INLAND
AREAS...WHILE THE COAST AND COAST RANGE WILL BENEFIT FROM AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SSW FLOW. WITH CLOUDS LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE AREA STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR...
SHOULD BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT. THU THE FRONT APPEARS TO
STALL OVER THE REGION AS THE LOW OFFSHORE DIGS IN A BIT MORE. WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED AND LOW LEVEL FLOW A LITTLE MORE ONSHORE
WILL TAKE POPS BACK UP TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS ONLY MODEST COOLING TO AIR MASS WITH THE
FRONT...CLOUDS AND EXPECTED OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL LIMIT HIGH
TEMPS TO THE 50S MOST LOW ELEVATION AREAS.

LATE THU NIGHT...AND ESP FRI BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES AS A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THROUGH BC WITH A TRUE COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN THE COAST AHEAD OF IT. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS IMPROVES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL...BEST
DEPICTED IN MODEL 290K ISENTROPIC FIELDS. AS SUCH...POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN PICKS UP CONSIDERABLY BY FRI.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING THE WESTERN
CANADIAN TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO THE PACIFIC NW STATES FRI NIGHT
AND SAT. ALL MODELS AT THIS POINT SHOWING A VIGOROUS CONTINENTAL
TYPE COLD FRONT MOVING S THROUGH SW WA AND NW OREGON FRI NIGHT.
PATTERN IS REMINISCENT OF A COLD FRONT FROM BACK ON 19 NOVEMBER 2003
THAT BROUGHT LOW ELEVATION SNOW TO INTERIOR N PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. KEYS TO DOING SOMETHING SIMILAR RELY ON SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL AS STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO ALLOW FOR DYNAMIC COOLING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
AT THIS POINT INDICATE SNOW LEVEL FALLING RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT
FRI NIGHT SUGGESTING AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN
TO FAIRLY LOW LEVELS. WHETHER IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO MIX SNOW AT
LOWEST ELEVATIONS IS ANYBODYS GUESS AT THIS POINT...BUT GIVEN THE
AGREEMENT IN MODELS AT THIS POINT WILL CARRY A MENTION OF MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE N PART OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. SAT SEES A
RATHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH A LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN
THE N...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR SATURDAYS MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES SAT NIGHT...
WITH ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS COMING TO END OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME
CLEARING SAT NIGHT AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WITH LOW TEMPS LIKELY GETTING WELL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
SPOTS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE CASCADES...
EXPECT STRONG EAST WINDS TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE GORGE SUNDAY MORNING
AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS SPILLING INTO THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. MONDAY MAY BE
A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WINDS AS A SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH.

MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE FROM THE ALEUTIANS IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF
FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC JET AND SETTLE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THERE IS A
CHANCE THIS SYSTEM COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPREAD SOME PRECIP
NORTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT OR MON. THE 12Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF. IF
THIS OCCURS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
GORGE. CUTOFF LOWS SUCH AS THIS ONE ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST...AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THEM IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WHERE THIS UPPER LOW GOES WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF IFR ALONG THE COAST FROM KAST TO KHQM. EXPECT
VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. CIGS LOWER
ALONG THE COAST AFTER 03Z THU AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOOK FOR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST TO FALL INTO MVFR BETWEEN 04Z TO 06Z
WITH PRECIP INCREASING OVERNIGHT. VFR SHOULD HOLD OVER THE INLAND
AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z THU...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS
INCREASE...WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED. CONSIDERABLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA THU WHICH WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THU. RAIN DEVELOPS OVER WRN APPROACHES AROUND 10Z THEN SPREADS
E THEREAFTER...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR DEVELOPING AFTER 13Z.
INCREASING MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS THU MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...WIND SPEEDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON STILL AT 15 TO 20 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. EXPECT SPEEDS TO RAMP UP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT MORE SO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOT A CLASSIC
CASE...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
COASTAL JET ENHANCEMENT WITHIN 20 NM. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO
40 KT IF THIS OCCURS. HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS PERSIST
THU MORNING. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW 20-25 KT NW-N WIND DEVELOPING
OVER THE N WATERS FRI EVENING THEN SPREADING FURTHER S OVERNIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE WIND TURNS
OFFSHORE SAT WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS 20 TO 30 KT NEAR GAPS IN THE
COASTAL TERRAIN. WIND SPEEDS RELAX SUN.

SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 FT THIS EVENING THEN REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH AT LEAST SAT MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF
SAT AFTERNOON AS OFFSHOR FLOW DEVELOPS. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 262159
AFDPQR

FXUS66 KPQR DDHHMM
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
200 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST WED AFTERNOON WILL PUSH
SLOWLY INLAND TONIGHT AND THU. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER WESTERN
OREGON THU NIGHT AND FRI...THEN ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE S THROUGH THE REGION FRI NIGHT USHERING COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRES OVER THE INTERIOR NW WILL TURN THE FLOW OFFSHORE
BY SUN FOR DRY BUT COLD WEATHER. SUN NIGHT AND MON A SYSTEM COMING
UP FROM THE S WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION UP OVER THE
COLD AIR MASS LEFT OVER FROM THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS OFFSHORE WED AFTERNOON...WITH
LAYERED CLOUDS SPREAD OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SHIFTS E TONIGHT AND THU THE FLOW
WILL TURN MORE TO THE SW...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AGREE IN SHOWING MOISTURE INITIALLY IN THEMID AND
HIGH LEVELS...ABOVE 700MB. BY LATE TONIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO
SPREAD IN IN THE LOWER LEVELS. DYNAMICS WITH THIS FRONT HOWEVER ON
THE WEAK SIDE...SO WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT INLAND
AREAS...WHILE THE COAST AND COAST RANGE WILL BENEFIT FROM AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SSW FLOW. WITH CLOUDS LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE AREA STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR...
SHOULD BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT. THU THE FRONT APPEARS TO
STALL OVER THE REGION AS THE LOW OFFSHORE DIGS IN A BIT MORE. WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED AND LOW LEVEL FLOW A LITTLE MORE ONSHORE
WILL TAKE POPS BACK UP TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS ONLY MODEST COOLING TO AIR MASS WITH THE
FRONT...CLOUDS AND EXPECTED OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL LIMIT HIGH
TEMPS TO THE 50S MOST LOW ELEVATION AREAS.

LATE THU NIGHT...AND ESP FRI BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES AS A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THROUGH BC WITH A TRUE COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN THE COAST AHEAD OF IT. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS IMPROVES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL...BEST
DEPICTED IN MODEL 290K ISENTROPIC FIELDS. AS SUCH...POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN PICKS UP CONSIDERABLY BY FRI.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING THE WESTERN
CANADIAN TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO THE PACIFIC NW STATES FRI NIGHT
AND SAT. ALL MODELS AT THIS POINT SHOWING A VIGOROUS CONTINENTAL
TYPE COLD FRONT MOVING S THROUGH SW WA AND NW OREGON FRI NIGHT.
PATTERN IS REMINISCENT OF A COLD FRONT FROM BACK ON 19 NOVEMBER 2003
THAT BROUGHT LOW ELEVATION SNOW TO INTERIOR N PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. KEYS TO DOING SOMETHING SIMILAR RELY ON SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL AS STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO ALLOW FOR DYNAMIC COOLING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
AT THIS POINT INDICATE SNOW LEVEL FALLING RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT
FRI NIGHT SUGGESTING AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN
TO FAIRLY LOW LEVELS. WHETHER IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO MIX SNOW AT
LOWEST ELEVATIONS IS ANYBODYS GUESS AT THIS POINT...BUT GIVEN THE
AGREEMENT IN MODELS AT THIS POINT WILL CARRY A MENTION OF MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE N PART OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. SAT SEES A
RATHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH A LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN
THE N...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR SATURDAYS MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES SAT NIGHT...
WITH ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS COMING TO END OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME
CLEARING SAT NIGHT AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WITH LOW TEMPS LIKELY GETTING WELL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
SPOTS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE CASCADES...
EXPECT STRONG EAST WINDS TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE GORGE SUNDAY MORNING
AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS SPILLING INTO THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. MONDAY MAY BE
A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WINDS AS A SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH.

MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE FROM THE ALEUTIANS IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF
FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC JET AND SETTLE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THERE IS A
CHANCE THIS SYSTEM COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPREAD SOME PRECIP
NORTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT OR MON. THE 12Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF. IF
THIS OCCURS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
GORGE. CUTOFF LOWS SUCH AS THIS ONE ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST...AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THEM IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WHERE THIS UPPER LOW GOES WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF IFR ALONG THE COAST FROM KAST TO KHQM. EXPECT
VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. CIGS LOWER
ALONG THE COAST AFTER 03Z THU AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOOK FOR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST TO FALL INTO MVFR BETWEEN 04Z TO 06Z
WITH PRECIP INCREASING OVERNIGHT. VFR SHOULD HOLD OVER THE INLAND
AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z THU...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS
INCREASE...WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED. CONSIDERABLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA THU WHICH WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THU. RAIN DEVELOPS OVER WRN APPROACHES AROUND 10Z THEN SPREADS
E THEREAFTER...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR DEVELOPING AFTER 13Z.
INCREASING MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS THU MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...WIND SPEEDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON STILL AT 15 TO 20 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. EXPECT SPEEDS TO RAMP UP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT MORE SO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOT A CLASSIC
CASE...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
COASTAL JET ENHANCEMENT WITHIN 20 NM. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO
40 KT IF THIS OCCURS. HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS PERSIST
THU MORNING. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW 20-25 KT NW-N WIND DEVELOPING
OVER THE N WATERS FRI EVENING THEN SPREADING FURTHER S OVERNIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE WIND TURNS
OFFSHORE SAT WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS 20 TO 30 KT NEAR GAPS IN THE
COASTAL TERRAIN. WIND SPEEDS RELAX SUN.

SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 FT THIS EVENING THEN REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH AT LEAST SAT MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF
SAT AFTERNOON AS OFFSHOR FLOW DEVELOPS. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 262159
AFDPQR

FXUS66 KPQR DDHHMM
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
200 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST WED AFTERNOON WILL PUSH
SLOWLY INLAND TONIGHT AND THU. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER WESTERN
OREGON THU NIGHT AND FRI...THEN ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE S THROUGH THE REGION FRI NIGHT USHERING COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRES OVER THE INTERIOR NW WILL TURN THE FLOW OFFSHORE
BY SUN FOR DRY BUT COLD WEATHER. SUN NIGHT AND MON A SYSTEM COMING
UP FROM THE S WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION UP OVER THE
COLD AIR MASS LEFT OVER FROM THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS OFFSHORE WED AFTERNOON...WITH
LAYERED CLOUDS SPREAD OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SHIFTS E TONIGHT AND THU THE FLOW
WILL TURN MORE TO THE SW...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AGREE IN SHOWING MOISTURE INITIALLY IN THEMID AND
HIGH LEVELS...ABOVE 700MB. BY LATE TONIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO
SPREAD IN IN THE LOWER LEVELS. DYNAMICS WITH THIS FRONT HOWEVER ON
THE WEAK SIDE...SO WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT INLAND
AREAS...WHILE THE COAST AND COAST RANGE WILL BENEFIT FROM AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SSW FLOW. WITH CLOUDS LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE AREA STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR...
SHOULD BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT. THU THE FRONT APPEARS TO
STALL OVER THE REGION AS THE LOW OFFSHORE DIGS IN A BIT MORE. WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED AND LOW LEVEL FLOW A LITTLE MORE ONSHORE
WILL TAKE POPS BACK UP TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS ONLY MODEST COOLING TO AIR MASS WITH THE
FRONT...CLOUDS AND EXPECTED OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL LIMIT HIGH
TEMPS TO THE 50S MOST LOW ELEVATION AREAS.

LATE THU NIGHT...AND ESP FRI BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES AS A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THROUGH BC WITH A TRUE COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN THE COAST AHEAD OF IT. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS IMPROVES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL...BEST
DEPICTED IN MODEL 290K ISENTROPIC FIELDS. AS SUCH...POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN PICKS UP CONSIDERABLY BY FRI.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING THE WESTERN
CANADIAN TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO THE PACIFIC NW STATES FRI NIGHT
AND SAT. ALL MODELS AT THIS POINT SHOWING A VIGOROUS CONTINENTAL
TYPE COLD FRONT MOVING S THROUGH SW WA AND NW OREGON FRI NIGHT.
PATTERN IS REMINISCENT OF A COLD FRONT FROM BACK ON 19 NOVEMBER 2003
THAT BROUGHT LOW ELEVATION SNOW TO INTERIOR N PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. KEYS TO DOING SOMETHING SIMILAR RELY ON SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL AS STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO ALLOW FOR DYNAMIC COOLING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
AT THIS POINT INDICATE SNOW LEVEL FALLING RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT
FRI NIGHT SUGGESTING AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN
TO FAIRLY LOW LEVELS. WHETHER IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO MIX SNOW AT
LOWEST ELEVATIONS IS ANYBODYS GUESS AT THIS POINT...BUT GIVEN THE
AGREEMENT IN MODELS AT THIS POINT WILL CARRY A MENTION OF MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE N PART OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. SAT SEES A
RATHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH A LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN
THE N...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR SATURDAYS MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES SAT NIGHT...
WITH ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS COMING TO END OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME
CLEARING SAT NIGHT AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WITH LOW TEMPS LIKELY GETTING WELL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
SPOTS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE CASCADES...
EXPECT STRONG EAST WINDS TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE GORGE SUNDAY MORNING
AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS SPILLING INTO THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. MONDAY MAY BE
A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WINDS AS A SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH.

MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE FROM THE ALEUTIANS IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF
FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC JET AND SETTLE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THERE IS A
CHANCE THIS SYSTEM COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPREAD SOME PRECIP
NORTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT OR MON. THE 12Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF. IF
THIS OCCURS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
GORGE. CUTOFF LOWS SUCH AS THIS ONE ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST...AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THEM IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WHERE THIS UPPER LOW GOES WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF IFR ALONG THE COAST FROM KAST TO KHQM. EXPECT
VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. CIGS LOWER
ALONG THE COAST AFTER 03Z THU AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOOK FOR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST TO FALL INTO MVFR BETWEEN 04Z TO 06Z
WITH PRECIP INCREASING OVERNIGHT. VFR SHOULD HOLD OVER THE INLAND
AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z THU...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS
INCREASE...WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED. CONSIDERABLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA THU WHICH WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THU. RAIN DEVELOPS OVER WRN APPROACHES AROUND 10Z THEN SPREADS
E THEREAFTER...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR DEVELOPING AFTER 13Z.
INCREASING MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS THU MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...WIND SPEEDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON STILL AT 15 TO 20 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. EXPECT SPEEDS TO RAMP UP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT MORE SO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOT A CLASSIC
CASE...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
COASTAL JET ENHANCEMENT WITHIN 20 NM. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO
40 KT IF THIS OCCURS. HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS PERSIST
THU MORNING. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW 20-25 KT NW-N WIND DEVELOPING
OVER THE N WATERS FRI EVENING THEN SPREADING FURTHER S OVERNIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE WIND TURNS
OFFSHORE SAT WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS 20 TO 30 KT NEAR GAPS IN THE
COASTAL TERRAIN. WIND SPEEDS RELAX SUN.

SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 FT THIS EVENING THEN REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH AT LEAST SAT MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF
SAT AFTERNOON AS OFFSHOR FLOW DEVELOPS. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 262159
AFDPQR

FXUS66 KPQR DDHHMM
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
200 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST WED AFTERNOON WILL PUSH
SLOWLY INLAND TONIGHT AND THU. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER WESTERN
OREGON THU NIGHT AND FRI...THEN ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE S THROUGH THE REGION FRI NIGHT USHERING COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRES OVER THE INTERIOR NW WILL TURN THE FLOW OFFSHORE
BY SUN FOR DRY BUT COLD WEATHER. SUN NIGHT AND MON A SYSTEM COMING
UP FROM THE S WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION UP OVER THE
COLD AIR MASS LEFT OVER FROM THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS OFFSHORE WED AFTERNOON...WITH
LAYERED CLOUDS SPREAD OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SHIFTS E TONIGHT AND THU THE FLOW
WILL TURN MORE TO THE SW...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AGREE IN SHOWING MOISTURE INITIALLY IN THEMID AND
HIGH LEVELS...ABOVE 700MB. BY LATE TONIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO
SPREAD IN IN THE LOWER LEVELS. DYNAMICS WITH THIS FRONT HOWEVER ON
THE WEAK SIDE...SO WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT INLAND
AREAS...WHILE THE COAST AND COAST RANGE WILL BENEFIT FROM AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SSW FLOW. WITH CLOUDS LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE AREA STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR...
SHOULD BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT. THU THE FRONT APPEARS TO
STALL OVER THE REGION AS THE LOW OFFSHORE DIGS IN A BIT MORE. WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED AND LOW LEVEL FLOW A LITTLE MORE ONSHORE
WILL TAKE POPS BACK UP TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS ONLY MODEST COOLING TO AIR MASS WITH THE
FRONT...CLOUDS AND EXPECTED OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL LIMIT HIGH
TEMPS TO THE 50S MOST LOW ELEVATION AREAS.

LATE THU NIGHT...AND ESP FRI BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES AS A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THROUGH BC WITH A TRUE COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN THE COAST AHEAD OF IT. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS IMPROVES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL...BEST
DEPICTED IN MODEL 290K ISENTROPIC FIELDS. AS SUCH...POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN PICKS UP CONSIDERABLY BY FRI.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING THE WESTERN
CANADIAN TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO THE PACIFIC NW STATES FRI NIGHT
AND SAT. ALL MODELS AT THIS POINT SHOWING A VIGOROUS CONTINENTAL
TYPE COLD FRONT MOVING S THROUGH SW WA AND NW OREGON FRI NIGHT.
PATTERN IS REMINISCENT OF A COLD FRONT FROM BACK ON 19 NOVEMBER 2003
THAT BROUGHT LOW ELEVATION SNOW TO INTERIOR N PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. KEYS TO DOING SOMETHING SIMILAR RELY ON SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL AS STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO ALLOW FOR DYNAMIC COOLING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
AT THIS POINT INDICATE SNOW LEVEL FALLING RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT
FRI NIGHT SUGGESTING AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN
TO FAIRLY LOW LEVELS. WHETHER IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO MIX SNOW AT
LOWEST ELEVATIONS IS ANYBODYS GUESS AT THIS POINT...BUT GIVEN THE
AGREEMENT IN MODELS AT THIS POINT WILL CARRY A MENTION OF MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE N PART OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. SAT SEES A
RATHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH A LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN
THE N...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR SATURDAYS MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES SAT NIGHT...
WITH ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS COMING TO END OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME
CLEARING SAT NIGHT AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WITH LOW TEMPS LIKELY GETTING WELL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
SPOTS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE CASCADES...
EXPECT STRONG EAST WINDS TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE GORGE SUNDAY MORNING
AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS SPILLING INTO THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. MONDAY MAY BE
A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WINDS AS A SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH.

MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE FROM THE ALEUTIANS IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF
FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC JET AND SETTLE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THERE IS A
CHANCE THIS SYSTEM COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPREAD SOME PRECIP
NORTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT OR MON. THE 12Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF. IF
THIS OCCURS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
GORGE. CUTOFF LOWS SUCH AS THIS ONE ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST...AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THEM IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WHERE THIS UPPER LOW GOES WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF IFR ALONG THE COAST FROM KAST TO KHQM. EXPECT
VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. CIGS LOWER
ALONG THE COAST AFTER 03Z THU AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOOK FOR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST TO FALL INTO MVFR BETWEEN 04Z TO 06Z
WITH PRECIP INCREASING OVERNIGHT. VFR SHOULD HOLD OVER THE INLAND
AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z THU...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS
INCREASE...WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED. CONSIDERABLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA THU WHICH WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THU. RAIN DEVELOPS OVER WRN APPROACHES AROUND 10Z THEN SPREADS
E THEREAFTER...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR DEVELOPING AFTER 13Z.
INCREASING MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS THU MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...WIND SPEEDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON STILL AT 15 TO 20 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. EXPECT SPEEDS TO RAMP UP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT MORE SO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOT A CLASSIC
CASE...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
COASTAL JET ENHANCEMENT WITHIN 20 NM. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO
40 KT IF THIS OCCURS. HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS PERSIST
THU MORNING. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW 20-25 KT NW-N WIND DEVELOPING
OVER THE N WATERS FRI EVENING THEN SPREADING FURTHER S OVERNIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE WIND TURNS
OFFSHORE SAT WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS 20 TO 30 KT NEAR GAPS IN THE
COASTAL TERRAIN. WIND SPEEDS RELAX SUN.

SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 FT THIS EVENING THEN REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH AT LEAST SAT MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF
SAT AFTERNOON AS OFFSHOR FLOW DEVELOPS. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 262159
AFDPQR

FXUS66 KPQR DDHHMM
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
200 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST WED AFTERNOON WILL PUSH
SLOWLY INLAND TONIGHT AND THU. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER WESTERN
OREGON THU NIGHT AND FRI...THEN ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE S THROUGH THE REGION FRI NIGHT USHERING COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRES OVER THE INTERIOR NW WILL TURN THE FLOW OFFSHORE
BY SUN FOR DRY BUT COLD WEATHER. SUN NIGHT AND MON A SYSTEM COMING
UP FROM THE S WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION UP OVER THE
COLD AIR MASS LEFT OVER FROM THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS OFFSHORE WED AFTERNOON...WITH
LAYERED CLOUDS SPREAD OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SHIFTS E TONIGHT AND THU THE FLOW
WILL TURN MORE TO THE SW...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AGREE IN SHOWING MOISTURE INITIALLY IN THEMID AND
HIGH LEVELS...ABOVE 700MB. BY LATE TONIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO
SPREAD IN IN THE LOWER LEVELS. DYNAMICS WITH THIS FRONT HOWEVER ON
THE WEAK SIDE...SO WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT INLAND
AREAS...WHILE THE COAST AND COAST RANGE WILL BENEFIT FROM AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SSW FLOW. WITH CLOUDS LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE AREA STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR...
SHOULD BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT. THU THE FRONT APPEARS TO
STALL OVER THE REGION AS THE LOW OFFSHORE DIGS IN A BIT MORE. WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED AND LOW LEVEL FLOW A LITTLE MORE ONSHORE
WILL TAKE POPS BACK UP TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS ONLY MODEST COOLING TO AIR MASS WITH THE
FRONT...CLOUDS AND EXPECTED OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL LIMIT HIGH
TEMPS TO THE 50S MOST LOW ELEVATION AREAS.

LATE THU NIGHT...AND ESP FRI BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES AS A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THROUGH BC WITH A TRUE COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN THE COAST AHEAD OF IT. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS IMPROVES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL...BEST
DEPICTED IN MODEL 290K ISENTROPIC FIELDS. AS SUCH...POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN PICKS UP CONSIDERABLY BY FRI.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING THE WESTERN
CANADIAN TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO THE PACIFIC NW STATES FRI NIGHT
AND SAT. ALL MODELS AT THIS POINT SHOWING A VIGOROUS CONTINENTAL
TYPE COLD FRONT MOVING S THROUGH SW WA AND NW OREGON FRI NIGHT.
PATTERN IS REMINISCENT OF A COLD FRONT FROM BACK ON 19 NOVEMBER 2003
THAT BROUGHT LOW ELEVATION SNOW TO INTERIOR N PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. KEYS TO DOING SOMETHING SIMILAR RELY ON SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL AS STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO ALLOW FOR DYNAMIC COOLING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
AT THIS POINT INDICATE SNOW LEVEL FALLING RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT
FRI NIGHT SUGGESTING AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN
TO FAIRLY LOW LEVELS. WHETHER IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO MIX SNOW AT
LOWEST ELEVATIONS IS ANYBODYS GUESS AT THIS POINT...BUT GIVEN THE
AGREEMENT IN MODELS AT THIS POINT WILL CARRY A MENTION OF MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE N PART OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. SAT SEES A
RATHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH A LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN
THE N...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR SATURDAYS MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES SAT NIGHT...
WITH ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS COMING TO END OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME
CLEARING SAT NIGHT AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WITH LOW TEMPS LIKELY GETTING WELL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
SPOTS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE CASCADES...
EXPECT STRONG EAST WINDS TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE GORGE SUNDAY MORNING
AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS SPILLING INTO THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. MONDAY MAY BE
A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WINDS AS A SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH.

MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE FROM THE ALEUTIANS IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF
FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC JET AND SETTLE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THERE IS A
CHANCE THIS SYSTEM COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPREAD SOME PRECIP
NORTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT OR MON. THE 12Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF. IF
THIS OCCURS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
GORGE. CUTOFF LOWS SUCH AS THIS ONE ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST...AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THEM IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WHERE THIS UPPER LOW GOES WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF IFR ALONG THE COAST FROM KAST TO KHQM. EXPECT
VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. CIGS LOWER
ALONG THE COAST AFTER 03Z THU AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOOK FOR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST TO FALL INTO MVFR BETWEEN 04Z TO 06Z
WITH PRECIP INCREASING OVERNIGHT. VFR SHOULD HOLD OVER THE INLAND
AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z THU...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS
INCREASE...WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED. CONSIDERABLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA THU WHICH WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THU. RAIN DEVELOPS OVER WRN APPROACHES AROUND 10Z THEN SPREADS
E THEREAFTER...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR DEVELOPING AFTER 13Z.
INCREASING MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS THU MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...WIND SPEEDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON STILL AT 15 TO 20 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. EXPECT SPEEDS TO RAMP UP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT MORE SO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOT A CLASSIC
CASE...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
COASTAL JET ENHANCEMENT WITHIN 20 NM. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO
40 KT IF THIS OCCURS. HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS PERSIST
THU MORNING. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW 20-25 KT NW-N WIND DEVELOPING
OVER THE N WATERS FRI EVENING THEN SPREADING FURTHER S OVERNIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE WIND TURNS
OFFSHORE SAT WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS 20 TO 30 KT NEAR GAPS IN THE
COASTAL TERRAIN. WIND SPEEDS RELAX SUN.

SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 FT THIS EVENING THEN REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH AT LEAST SAT MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF
SAT AFTERNOON AS OFFSHOR FLOW DEVELOPS. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 261952
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1152 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected today and Thanksgiving. By
late this morning, snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
We have issued a dense fog advisory to cover hazardous travel
along the Highway 2 corridor between Airway Heights to Wilbur and
onto the Waterville Plateau. With warmer air moving in aloft, the
inversions are strengthening and cloud decks are lowering with
visibilities down near 1/8 mile in spots. Fog looks to be clearing
down near Ritzville so hazard will mainly address travel along Highway
2. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Recent rain/snow and warming aloft will promote areas
of fog and low clouds across most terminals this morning with
improving conditions expected through this evening. Areas of
LIFR/IFR fog currently stretches across the Upper Columbia Basin
from KCOE to KMWH. Confidence is low regarding exact timing for
improvements but gusty S/SW winds in the lower Basin should
promote improving conditions KPUW-KLWS by 20Z then expanding N
through 06z. KMWH/KEAT will carry the lower probabilities for
clearing. The upper-level ridge will flatten tomorrow suppressing
the moist frontal boundary back south lowering cigs btwn 4-6K ft
agl and incr the threat for light rain.  /sb




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        46  42  50  41  46  27 /  20  30  30  20  70  60
Coeur d`Alene  45  41  48  41  45  29 /  40  30  30  40  80  70
Pullman        53  44  53  43  49  32 /  10  30  30  30  90  90
Lewiston       57  47  58  46  53  38 /  10  10  10  20  60  70
Colville       39  38  46  40  43  22 /  50  60  50  50  70  30
Sandpoint      39  38  45  38  42  26 /  70  70  60  70  80  80
Kellogg        42  40  44  39  41  30 /  60  60  70  60  90 100
Moses Lake     48  44  55  41  51  27 /   0  10  10  20  30  30
Wenatchee      46  42  50  41  48  29 /  10  10  10  30  30  20
Omak           39  38  46  37  41  16 /  20  30  30  20  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Spokane
     Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 261832 AAA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED ADDED AVN MAR SECTIONS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1032 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOR MORE RAIN
AND WINDY CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THEN CROSSES THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
SNOW. COOL DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WESTERN WASHINGTON IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A WARM
FRONT THAT IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN B.C. THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WERE RATHER MILD OVERNIGHT FROM THE GREATER PUGET SOUND
REGION SOUTHWARD...AND REMAIN SO THIS MORNING WITH READINGS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S. THE WARM AIR HAS NOT QUITE REACHED THE NW INTERIOR
WHERE TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE UPPER 40S...BUT SHOULD GET THERE
EVENTUALLY TODAY. THE LULL IN RAIN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE NEXT
FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT.

THE APPROACHING FRONT WAS OFFSHORE NEARING 130W AT 16Z/8 AM THIS
MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COAST AROUND 06Z/10 PM TONIGHT.
FROPA OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD BE BEFORE 12Z/4 AM. S-SE SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD PEAK THIS EVENING IN THE LOW END
WIND ADVISORY RANGE FOR THE USUAL AREAS...COAST AND N INTERIOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND.

IN ADDITION...STRONG SW LOW LEVEL FLOW ALOFT AT 850 MB IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING THEN CONTINUE IN THE
35-45KT RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT OVER B.C. MOVES
S. THE SW FLOW WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE OLYMPICS AND N CASCADES WITH
HEAVY RAIN...WITH WIDESPREAD 3 INCH AMOUNTS AND A BULLSEYE OF AROUND
5 INCHES AROUND MT BAKER FOR THE 36 HOUR PERIOD 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...6000 TO 7000 FEET TONIGHT
LOWERING TO 5000-6000 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVY RAIN HAS A GOOD
CHANCE OF PRODUCING SOME FLOODING ON SOME OF THE RIVERS FLOWING OFF
THE N CASCADES. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...SEE THE HYDRO
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

AFTER TONIGHTS FRONT EXITS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE OLD
WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN B.C. WILL BE DRIVEN SOUTH ACROSS W WA AS A
COLD FRONT...BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SOUTH FROM
NORTHERN B.C.  MODELS BRING THE BACK EDGE OF THE FRONT TO THE N
INTERIOR FRIDAY MORNING...THEN DOWN ACROSS PUGET SOUND LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN FINALLY APPROACHING THE OREGON BORDER LATE FRIDAY
EVENING. RAIN WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES S.

INTERESTING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS VERY
COLD ALOFT AND WILL GRADUALLY COOL THE AIR MASS ENOUGH OVERNIGHT SO
THAT RAIN AND SNOW MIXED OR JUST SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE
SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY. IN
ADDITION WINDS WILL BE RIGHT FOR A CONVERGENCE ZONE TO FORM OVER
CENTRAL PUGET SOUND.

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH FORMING OVER THE B.C.INTERIOR WILL GENERATE
FRASER RIVER VALLEY OUTFLOW WINDS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD COOL
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS W WA...WITH CLEARING FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NE WINDS COULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE FAR N INTERIOR. THE
COLD AIR WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE 20S ACROSS W WA SUNDAY MORNING. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 330 AM AFD...LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS OVER WESTERN WA ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRES OVER INTERIOR B.C. WILL MAINTAIN EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
PASSES. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE DOWN TO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S
ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS ARE ALSO BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S EXPECTED. MODELS WERE SHOWING SOME MOISTURE SPREADING
NORTH SUN NIGHT OR MON BUT THEY ARE NOW BACKING OFF ON THIS IDEA. SO
THE FORECAST IS NOW LOOKING DRIER OVER THIS PERIOD AS WELL. THE
FORECAST IS ALSO LOOKING DRIER THROUGH MIDWEEK NOW AS THE EURO TRIES
TO BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTH INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA THIS MORNING WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN NOW RESIDES. THE
COASTAL RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME STEADY LIGHT RAIN CONCENTRATED
ALONG THE COAST AND W/SW SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS. UP TO A COUPLE
TENTHS HAS FALLEN THE PAST 3 HOURS OVER THE OLYMPICS WITH THE
RAINFALL RATES CONTINUING A DOWNTREND. RAIN IS ALSO DECREASING
ACROSS THE N CASCADES WHERE UP TO 1 INCH FELL OVERNIGHT. RAIN IS NOW
IN A LULL ACROSS WRN WA AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN A HALF INCH AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE CASCADES OF
WHATCOM/SKAGIT COUNTIES AND THE OLYMPICS. BECAUSE RAINFALL HAS
TAPERED...THE ODDS OF THE NOOKSACK AT CEDARVILLE REACHING FLOOD
TODAY ARE LOW BUT STILL NEEDS TO BE WATCHED. THE STILLAGUAMISH
REACHED FLOOD OVERNIGHT BUT IS ON THE DOWNTURN AND SHOULD FALL BELOW
FLOOD LATER TODAY.

THE SNOQUALMIE RIVER AT THE FALLS CRESTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
THE CREST MOVING DOWNSTREAM THROUGH CARNATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FLOODING ON THE SNOQUALMIE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
SKYKOMISH RIVER RAN WITHIN A FOOT OF FLOOD STAGE EARLIER THIS
MORNING BUT IS NOW ON THE DOWNTURN. THE SNOHOMISH...WHICH IS FORMED
BY THE CONFLUENCE OF THE SKYKOMISH AND SNOQUALMIE RIVERS...COULD
HAVE SOME FLOODING LATER TODAY.

THE RIVERS THAT FLOW OFF MOUNT RAINIER ARE RECEDING. THE FLOODING
HAS ENDED FOR THE CARBON AND NISQUALLY RIVERS...BUT FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE COWLITZ AND REACH OF THE PUYALLUP NEAR ORTING.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING RENEWED RAINFALL TO WRN WA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...LOCALLY HEAVY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH
CASCADES WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...BUT LOCALLY UP TO 5
INCHES OVER MOUNT RAINIER AND SKYKOMISH-SNOQUALMIE-TOLT-SNOHOMISH
BASIN IS POSSIBLE TOO. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE 5500 TO 7000 FT FOR
MOST OF THE EVENT...THEN FALL ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PRECIPITATION DECREASES.

A MAJOR FLOODING EPISODE IS UNLIKELY...BUT THE RAINFALL COULD
CERTAINLY RENEW FLOODING ON THE RIVERS THAT FLOODED OR ALMOST
FLOODED AND SOME OTHER RIVERS COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE AS WELL. A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH INCLUDES ALL
THE COUNTIES WITH RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES
AND MASON COUNTY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FLOOD ON THE SKOKOMISH.

COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...SO RIVERS SHOULD
RECEDE AND THE FLOOD THREAT WILL END FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...THE FLOW ALOFT IS STRONG AND FROM THE WEST. THE AIR MASS
IS RATHER MOIST AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. CIGS ARE MVFR TO
VFR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS MOVE OUT. A
COLD FRONT IS TIMED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...CIGS WILL BE HIGHER JUST BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN
FALL JUST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE TO LOW MVFR IN MOST AREAS. SLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY WITH THE FRONT AND INTO THE
MORNING.

KSEA...SOUTH WIND INCREASING FROM 10 TO 12 KT TODAY TO 12 TO 14 KT
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT DURING AND AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
AROUND 7 OR 8Z. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES. JSMITH

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY AND MOVE
ONSHORE TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
COMMON IN MOST WATERS TODAY...THEN GALES FOR SOME WATERS TONIGHT AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG FRASER OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE OTHER WATERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. JSMITH

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
     WESTERN WASHINGTON.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR BAR FOR ROUGH BAR.
    .GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES STRAIT OF JUAN DE
     FUCA...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
     TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KOTX 261826
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1026 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected today and Thanksgiving. By
late this morning, snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: We continue to delay rising snow levels along the
Canadian Border however despite on and off snow at locations like
Laurier, Bonners Ferry, and Metaline Falls accumulations look to
be primarily on grassy (non-road) surfaces. Therefore, the winter
weather advisories were allowed to expire at 10AM this morning.

Travel across the region looks to be most problematic along Hwy
20 over Sherman Pass and into the Okanogan and Methow Valleys
where 12-18 inches of snow fell over the last 36 hours. The main
roads look mainly wet via cams but many secondary roads will
likely still be dealing with slick, slushy conditions. Periods of
light snow will remain a possibility through today with most
accumulations remaining on non-road surfaces.

Areas of dense fog will be a larger concern region-wide and will
restrict visibilities at times. The worse conditions look to be
along Hwy 2 between Airway Heights and Wenatchee and at times in
and around Moses Lake. Nearly all valley locations north of Hwy 2
can also expect fog and low clouds as warmer air moves in aloft
and strengthens inversions.

Quite the contrast in temperatures expected today with 60s in the
foothills of the Blue Mtns and Snake River Valley while
communities near the Canadian Border remain socked in the 30s.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Recent rain/snow and warming aloft will promote areas
of fog and low clouds across most terminals this morning with
improving conditions expected through this evening. Areas of
LIFR/IFR fog currently stretches across the Upper Columbia Basin
from KCOE to KMWH. Confidence is low regarding exact timing for
improvements but gusty S/SW winds in the lower Basin should
promote improving conditions KPUW-KLWS by 20Z then expanding N
through 06z. KMWH/KEAT will carry the lower probabilities for
clearing. The upper-level ridge will flatten tomorrow suppressing
the moist frontal boundary back south lowering cigs btwn 4-6K ft
agl and incr the threat for light rain.  /sb



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        46  42  50  40  45  26 /  20  30  30  20  80  60
Coeur d`Alene  45  41  48  40  44  27 /  40  30  30  20  90  70
Pullman        53  44  53  42  48  31 /  10  30  30  20  80  80
Lewiston       57  47  58  45  52  37 /  10  10  10  20  70  80
Colville       39  38  46  38  42  20 /  50  60  50  40  80  10
Sandpoint      39  38  45  37  41  25 /  70  70  60  50  90  50
Kellogg        42  40  44  38  40  29 /  60  60  70  70  90  80
Moses Lake     48  44  55  40  50  25 /   0  10  10  10  30  20
Wenatchee      46  42  50  41  47  27 /  10  10  10  20  30  10
Omak           39  38  46  35  40  14 /  20  30  30  30  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 261826
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1026 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected today and Thanksgiving. By
late this morning, snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: We continue to delay rising snow levels along the
Canadian Border however despite on and off snow at locations like
Laurier, Bonners Ferry, and Metaline Falls accumulations look to
be primarily on grassy (non-road) surfaces. Therefore, the winter
weather advisories were allowed to expire at 10AM this morning.

Travel across the region looks to be most problematic along Hwy
20 over Sherman Pass and into the Okanogan and Methow Valleys
where 12-18 inches of snow fell over the last 36 hours. The main
roads look mainly wet via cams but many secondary roads will
likely still be dealing with slick, slushy conditions. Periods of
light snow will remain a possibility through today with most
accumulations remaining on non-road surfaces.

Areas of dense fog will be a larger concern region-wide and will
restrict visibilities at times. The worse conditions look to be
along Hwy 2 between Airway Heights and Wenatchee and at times in
and around Moses Lake. Nearly all valley locations north of Hwy 2
can also expect fog and low clouds as warmer air moves in aloft
and strengthens inversions.

Quite the contrast in temperatures expected today with 60s in the
foothills of the Blue Mtns and Snake River Valley while
communities near the Canadian Border remain socked in the 30s.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Recent rain/snow and warming aloft will promote areas
of fog and low clouds across most terminals this morning with
improving conditions expected through this evening. Areas of
LIFR/IFR fog currently stretches across the Upper Columbia Basin
from KCOE to KMWH. Confidence is low regarding exact timing for
improvements but gusty S/SW winds in the lower Basin should
promote improving conditions KPUW-KLWS by 20Z then expanding N
through 06z. KMWH/KEAT will carry the lower probabilities for
clearing. The upper-level ridge will flatten tomorrow suppressing
the moist frontal boundary back south lowering cigs btwn 4-6K ft
agl and incr the threat for light rain.  /sb



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        46  42  50  40  45  26 /  20  30  30  20  80  60
Coeur d`Alene  45  41  48  40  44  27 /  40  30  30  20  90  70
Pullman        53  44  53  42  48  31 /  10  30  30  20  80  80
Lewiston       57  47  58  45  52  37 /  10  10  10  20  70  80
Colville       39  38  46  38  42  20 /  50  60  50  40  80  10
Sandpoint      39  38  45  37  41  25 /  70  70  60  50  90  50
Kellogg        42  40  44  38  40  29 /  60  60  70  70  90  80
Moses Lake     48  44  55  40  50  25 /   0  10  10  10  30  20
Wenatchee      46  42  50  41  47  27 /  10  10  10  20  30  10
Omak           39  38  46  35  40  14 /  20  30  30  30  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 261758
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1000 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT ACROSS WA THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY LIFT
FURTHER N THROUGH TONIGHT...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN A MILD AIR
MASS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING
BACK CHANCES FOR RAIN. A STRONGER COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
N WILL MOVE THROUGH FRI NIGHT BRINGING COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS TURNING OFFSHORE SUN. SUN NIGHT AND MON A
SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE S WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME
PRECIPITATION UP OVER THE COLD AIR MASS LEFT OVER FROM THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST MOST OF THE
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT ACROSS WA THIS MORNING WAS N OF
THE FORECAST AREA...SO WILL LEAVE JUST A LOW POP IN FOR TODAY N OF
THE COLUMBIA RIVER WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS DRY
AND IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY. WITH THE REGION REMAINING IN THE WARM
SECTOR TODAY...EXPECT PERSISTENCE TYPE TEMPS TODAY TO BE THE BEST
BET...MEANING SOME MORE TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY AGAIN BE IN JEOPARDY
TODAY.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT APPROACHING 130W EARLY THIS MORNING WILL REACH THE COAST AND
BEGIN SPREADING ONSHORE TONIGHT FOR MORE RAIN AND SOME BRISK COASTAL
WINDS...BUT LIKELY STAYING BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON THANKSGIVING FOR MORE
RAIN AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE
HIGH IN THE CASCADES.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BENEATH
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET MERGES WITH AN
INCREASING NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET. THIS WILL KEEP SOME RAIN GOING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

A SECONDARY COLDER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN SAGGING INTO OUR AREA FROM
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...MERGING WITH THE STALLED SOUTHERN COLD
FRONT...AND KEEPING THE RAIN GOING...PERHAPS A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN ON
PREVIOUS DAYS. SNOW LEVELS IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES MAY BEGIN
TO FALL LATE IN THE DAY AS THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH BUT
SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY STAY ABOVE THE PASS LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLVES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO SLIDE S THROUGH WA
AND INTO NRN OREGON. 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
ECMWF RUNS...DEPICTING A COLD AIR WEDGE IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE
BY 00Z SUN. LOOK FOR THE EAST WIND TO RETURN AS WELL...BEGINNING SAT
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY 00Z SUN THE GFS HAS -8
TO -10C 850 MB AIR IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
JUST A TOUCH WARMER. FORTUNATELY...THE DRIER NLY FLOW WILL SHUNT
PRECIP FURTHER TO THE S. A CLOSED LOW WELL OF THE NRN CA COAST SAT
STARTS TO DRIFT NE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
DEFORMATION BAND OVER NRN CA TO DRIFT NWD LATE SUN INTO MON. THIS
COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS THE MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE COLD
AIR....ESPECIALLY FOR THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY.
WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 17Z...EXCEPT FOR
AREAS OF IFR ALONG THE N OREGON AND S WA COAST. EXPECT VFR TO
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. CIGS LOWER ALONG THE
COAST AFTER 03Z THU AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOOK FOR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST TO FALL INTO MVFR BETWEEN 04Z TO 06Z
WITH PRECIP INCREASING OVERNIGHT. VFR SHOULD HOLD OVER THE INLAND
AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z THU...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS
INCREASE...WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THU. RAIN DEVELOPS OVER WRN APPROACHES AROUND 10Z THEN SPREADS
E THEREAFTER...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR DEVELOPING AFTER 13Z. WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...WIND SPEEDS HOLDING AT 15 TO 20 KT THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SPEEDS RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER
MUCH OF THE WATERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE SO IN THE 02Z
TO 08Z TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH NOT A CLASSIC CASE...SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME COASTAL JET
ENHANCEMENT WITHIN 20 NM. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 KT IF THIS
OCCURS. HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS PERSIST THU MORNING.
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW 20-25 KT NW WIND DEVELOPING OVER THE N
WATERS FRI EVENING THEN SPREADING FURTHER S OVERNIGHT. WIND TURNS
OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS 20 TO 30 KT NEAR
GAPS IN THE COASTAL TERRAIN.

SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 FT LATER TODAY THEN STAY ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 261758
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1000 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT ACROSS WA THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY LIFT
FURTHER N THROUGH TONIGHT...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN A MILD AIR
MASS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING
BACK CHANCES FOR RAIN. A STRONGER COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
N WILL MOVE THROUGH FRI NIGHT BRINGING COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS TURNING OFFSHORE SUN. SUN NIGHT AND MON A
SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE S WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME
PRECIPITATION UP OVER THE COLD AIR MASS LEFT OVER FROM THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST MOST OF THE
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT ACROSS WA THIS MORNING WAS N OF
THE FORECAST AREA...SO WILL LEAVE JUST A LOW POP IN FOR TODAY N OF
THE COLUMBIA RIVER WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS DRY
AND IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY. WITH THE REGION REMAINING IN THE WARM
SECTOR TODAY...EXPECT PERSISTENCE TYPE TEMPS TODAY TO BE THE BEST
BET...MEANING SOME MORE TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY AGAIN BE IN JEOPARDY
TODAY.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT APPROACHING 130W EARLY THIS MORNING WILL REACH THE COAST AND
BEGIN SPREADING ONSHORE TONIGHT FOR MORE RAIN AND SOME BRISK COASTAL
WINDS...BUT LIKELY STAYING BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON THANKSGIVING FOR MORE
RAIN AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE
HIGH IN THE CASCADES.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BENEATH
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET MERGES WITH AN
INCREASING NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET. THIS WILL KEEP SOME RAIN GOING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

A SECONDARY COLDER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN SAGGING INTO OUR AREA FROM
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...MERGING WITH THE STALLED SOUTHERN COLD
FRONT...AND KEEPING THE RAIN GOING...PERHAPS A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN ON
PREVIOUS DAYS. SNOW LEVELS IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES MAY BEGIN
TO FALL LATE IN THE DAY AS THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH BUT
SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY STAY ABOVE THE PASS LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLVES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO SLIDE S THROUGH WA
AND INTO NRN OREGON. 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
ECMWF RUNS...DEPICTING A COLD AIR WEDGE IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE
BY 00Z SUN. LOOK FOR THE EAST WIND TO RETURN AS WELL...BEGINNING SAT
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY 00Z SUN THE GFS HAS -8
TO -10C 850 MB AIR IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
JUST A TOUCH WARMER. FORTUNATELY...THE DRIER NLY FLOW WILL SHUNT
PRECIP FURTHER TO THE S. A CLOSED LOW WELL OF THE NRN CA COAST SAT
STARTS TO DRIFT NE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
DEFORMATION BAND OVER NRN CA TO DRIFT NWD LATE SUN INTO MON. THIS
COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS THE MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE COLD
AIR....ESPECIALLY FOR THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY.
WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 17Z...EXCEPT FOR
AREAS OF IFR ALONG THE N OREGON AND S WA COAST. EXPECT VFR TO
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. CIGS LOWER ALONG THE
COAST AFTER 03Z THU AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOOK FOR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST TO FALL INTO MVFR BETWEEN 04Z TO 06Z
WITH PRECIP INCREASING OVERNIGHT. VFR SHOULD HOLD OVER THE INLAND
AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z THU...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS
INCREASE...WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THU. RAIN DEVELOPS OVER WRN APPROACHES AROUND 10Z THEN SPREADS
E THEREAFTER...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR DEVELOPING AFTER 13Z. WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...WIND SPEEDS HOLDING AT 15 TO 20 KT THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SPEEDS RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER
MUCH OF THE WATERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE SO IN THE 02Z
TO 08Z TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH NOT A CLASSIC CASE...SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME COASTAL JET
ENHANCEMENT WITHIN 20 NM. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 KT IF THIS
OCCURS. HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS PERSIST THU MORNING.
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW 20-25 KT NW WIND DEVELOPING OVER THE N
WATERS FRI EVENING THEN SPREADING FURTHER S OVERNIGHT. WIND TURNS
OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS 20 TO 30 KT NEAR
GAPS IN THE COASTAL TERRAIN.

SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 FT LATER TODAY THEN STAY ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 261758
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1000 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT ACROSS WA THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY LIFT
FURTHER N THROUGH TONIGHT...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN A MILD AIR
MASS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING
BACK CHANCES FOR RAIN. A STRONGER COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
N WILL MOVE THROUGH FRI NIGHT BRINGING COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS TURNING OFFSHORE SUN. SUN NIGHT AND MON A
SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE S WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME
PRECIPITATION UP OVER THE COLD AIR MASS LEFT OVER FROM THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST MOST OF THE
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT ACROSS WA THIS MORNING WAS N OF
THE FORECAST AREA...SO WILL LEAVE JUST A LOW POP IN FOR TODAY N OF
THE COLUMBIA RIVER WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS DRY
AND IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY. WITH THE REGION REMAINING IN THE WARM
SECTOR TODAY...EXPECT PERSISTENCE TYPE TEMPS TODAY TO BE THE BEST
BET...MEANING SOME MORE TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY AGAIN BE IN JEOPARDY
TODAY.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT APPROACHING 130W EARLY THIS MORNING WILL REACH THE COAST AND
BEGIN SPREADING ONSHORE TONIGHT FOR MORE RAIN AND SOME BRISK COASTAL
WINDS...BUT LIKELY STAYING BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON THANKSGIVING FOR MORE
RAIN AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE
HIGH IN THE CASCADES.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BENEATH
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET MERGES WITH AN
INCREASING NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET. THIS WILL KEEP SOME RAIN GOING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

A SECONDARY COLDER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN SAGGING INTO OUR AREA FROM
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...MERGING WITH THE STALLED SOUTHERN COLD
FRONT...AND KEEPING THE RAIN GOING...PERHAPS A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN ON
PREVIOUS DAYS. SNOW LEVELS IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES MAY BEGIN
TO FALL LATE IN THE DAY AS THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH BUT
SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY STAY ABOVE THE PASS LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLVES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO SLIDE S THROUGH WA
AND INTO NRN OREGON. 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
ECMWF RUNS...DEPICTING A COLD AIR WEDGE IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE
BY 00Z SUN. LOOK FOR THE EAST WIND TO RETURN AS WELL...BEGINNING SAT
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY 00Z SUN THE GFS HAS -8
TO -10C 850 MB AIR IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
JUST A TOUCH WARMER. FORTUNATELY...THE DRIER NLY FLOW WILL SHUNT
PRECIP FURTHER TO THE S. A CLOSED LOW WELL OF THE NRN CA COAST SAT
STARTS TO DRIFT NE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
DEFORMATION BAND OVER NRN CA TO DRIFT NWD LATE SUN INTO MON. THIS
COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS THE MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE COLD
AIR....ESPECIALLY FOR THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY.
WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 17Z...EXCEPT FOR
AREAS OF IFR ALONG THE N OREGON AND S WA COAST. EXPECT VFR TO
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. CIGS LOWER ALONG THE
COAST AFTER 03Z THU AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOOK FOR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST TO FALL INTO MVFR BETWEEN 04Z TO 06Z
WITH PRECIP INCREASING OVERNIGHT. VFR SHOULD HOLD OVER THE INLAND
AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z THU...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS
INCREASE...WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THU. RAIN DEVELOPS OVER WRN APPROACHES AROUND 10Z THEN SPREADS
E THEREAFTER...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR DEVELOPING AFTER 13Z. WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...WIND SPEEDS HOLDING AT 15 TO 20 KT THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SPEEDS RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER
MUCH OF THE WATERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE SO IN THE 02Z
TO 08Z TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH NOT A CLASSIC CASE...SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME COASTAL JET
ENHANCEMENT WITHIN 20 NM. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 KT IF THIS
OCCURS. HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS PERSIST THU MORNING.
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW 20-25 KT NW WIND DEVELOPING OVER THE N
WATERS FRI EVENING THEN SPREADING FURTHER S OVERNIGHT. WIND TURNS
OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS 20 TO 30 KT NEAR
GAPS IN THE COASTAL TERRAIN.

SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 FT LATER TODAY THEN STAY ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 261758
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1000 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT ACROSS WA THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY LIFT
FURTHER N THROUGH TONIGHT...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN A MILD AIR
MASS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING
BACK CHANCES FOR RAIN. A STRONGER COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
N WILL MOVE THROUGH FRI NIGHT BRINGING COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS TURNING OFFSHORE SUN. SUN NIGHT AND MON A
SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE S WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME
PRECIPITATION UP OVER THE COLD AIR MASS LEFT OVER FROM THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST MOST OF THE
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT ACROSS WA THIS MORNING WAS N OF
THE FORECAST AREA...SO WILL LEAVE JUST A LOW POP IN FOR TODAY N OF
THE COLUMBIA RIVER WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS DRY
AND IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY. WITH THE REGION REMAINING IN THE WARM
SECTOR TODAY...EXPECT PERSISTENCE TYPE TEMPS TODAY TO BE THE BEST
BET...MEANING SOME MORE TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY AGAIN BE IN JEOPARDY
TODAY.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT APPROACHING 130W EARLY THIS MORNING WILL REACH THE COAST AND
BEGIN SPREADING ONSHORE TONIGHT FOR MORE RAIN AND SOME BRISK COASTAL
WINDS...BUT LIKELY STAYING BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON THANKSGIVING FOR MORE
RAIN AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE
HIGH IN THE CASCADES.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BENEATH
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET MERGES WITH AN
INCREASING NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET. THIS WILL KEEP SOME RAIN GOING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

A SECONDARY COLDER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN SAGGING INTO OUR AREA FROM
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...MERGING WITH THE STALLED SOUTHERN COLD
FRONT...AND KEEPING THE RAIN GOING...PERHAPS A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN ON
PREVIOUS DAYS. SNOW LEVELS IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES MAY BEGIN
TO FALL LATE IN THE DAY AS THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH BUT
SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY STAY ABOVE THE PASS LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLVES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO SLIDE S THROUGH WA
AND INTO NRN OREGON. 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
ECMWF RUNS...DEPICTING A COLD AIR WEDGE IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE
BY 00Z SUN. LOOK FOR THE EAST WIND TO RETURN AS WELL...BEGINNING SAT
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY 00Z SUN THE GFS HAS -8
TO -10C 850 MB AIR IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
JUST A TOUCH WARMER. FORTUNATELY...THE DRIER NLY FLOW WILL SHUNT
PRECIP FURTHER TO THE S. A CLOSED LOW WELL OF THE NRN CA COAST SAT
STARTS TO DRIFT NE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
DEFORMATION BAND OVER NRN CA TO DRIFT NWD LATE SUN INTO MON. THIS
COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS THE MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE COLD
AIR....ESPECIALLY FOR THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY.
WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 17Z...EXCEPT FOR
AREAS OF IFR ALONG THE N OREGON AND S WA COAST. EXPECT VFR TO
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. CIGS LOWER ALONG THE
COAST AFTER 03Z THU AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOOK FOR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST TO FALL INTO MVFR BETWEEN 04Z TO 06Z
WITH PRECIP INCREASING OVERNIGHT. VFR SHOULD HOLD OVER THE INLAND
AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z THU...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS
INCREASE...WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THU. RAIN DEVELOPS OVER WRN APPROACHES AROUND 10Z THEN SPREADS
E THEREAFTER...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR DEVELOPING AFTER 13Z. WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...WIND SPEEDS HOLDING AT 15 TO 20 KT THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SPEEDS RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER
MUCH OF THE WATERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE SO IN THE 02Z
TO 08Z TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH NOT A CLASSIC CASE...SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME COASTAL JET
ENHANCEMENT WITHIN 20 NM. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 KT IF THIS
OCCURS. HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS PERSIST THU MORNING.
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW 20-25 KT NW WIND DEVELOPING OVER THE N
WATERS FRI EVENING THEN SPREADING FURTHER S OVERNIGHT. WIND TURNS
OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS 20 TO 30 KT NEAR
GAPS IN THE COASTAL TERRAIN.

SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 FT LATER TODAY THEN STAY ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 261753
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
952 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOR MORE RAIN
AND WINDY CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THEN CROSSES THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
SNOW. COOL DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WESTERN WASHINGTON IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A WARM
FRONT THAT IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN B.C. THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WERE RATHER MILD OVERNIGHT FROM THE GREATER PUGET SOUND
REGION SOUTHWARD...AND REMAIN SO THIS MORNING WITH READINGS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S. THE WARM AIR HAS NOT QUITE REACHED THE NW INTERIOR
WHERE TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE UPPER 40S...BUT SHOULD GET THERE
EVENTUALLY TODAY. THE LULL IN RAIN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE NEXT
FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT.

THE APPROACHING FRONT WAS OFFSHORE NEARING 130W AT 16Z/8 AM THIS
MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COAST AROUND 06Z/10 PM TONIGHT.
FROPA OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD BE BEFORE 12Z/4 AM. S-SE SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD PEAK THIS EVENING IN THE LOW END
WIND ADVISORY RANGE FOR THE USUAL AREAS...COAST AND N INTERIOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND.

IN ADDITION...STRONG SW LOW LEVEL FLOW ALOFT AT 850 MB IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING THEN CONTINUE IN THE
35-45KT RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT OVER B.C. MOVES
S. THE SW FLOW WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE OLYMPICS AND N CASCADES WITH
HEAVY RAIN...WITH WIDESPREAD 3 INCH AMOUNTS AND A BULLSEYE OF AROUND
5 INCHES AROUND MT BAKER FOR THE 36 HOUR PERIOD 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...6000 TO 7000 FEET TONIGHT
LOWERING TO 5000-6000 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVY RAIN HAS A GOOD
CHANCE OF PRODUCING SOME FLOODING ON SOME OF THE RIVERS FLOWING OFF
THE N CASCADES. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...SEE THE HYDRO
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

AFTER TONIGHTS FRONT EXITS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE OLD
WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN B.C. WILL BE DRIVEN SOUTH ACROSS W WA AS A
COLD FRONT...BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SOUTH FROM
NORTHERN B.C.  MODELS BRING THE BACK EDGE OF THE FRONT TO THE N
INTERIOR FRIDAY MORNING...THEN DOWN ACROSS PUGET SOUND LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN FINALLY APPROACHING THE OREGON BORDER LATE FRIDAY
EVENING. RAIN WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES S.

INTERESTING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS VERY
COLD ALOFT AND WILL GRADUALLY COOL THE AIR MASS ENOUGH OVERNIGHT SO
THAT RAIN AND SNOW MIXED OR JUST SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE
SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY. IN
ADDITION WINDS WILL BE RIGHT FOR A CONVERGENCE ZONE TO FORM OVER
CENTRAL PUGET SOUND.

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH FORMING OVER THE B.C.INTERIOR WILL GENERATE
FRASER RIVER VALLEY OUTFLOW WINDS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD COOL
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS W WA...WITH CLEARING FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NE WINDS COULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE FAR N INTERIOR. THE
COLD AIR WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE 20S ACROSS W WA SUNDAY MORNING. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 330 AM AFD...LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS OVER WESTERN WA ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRES OVER INTERIOR B.C. WILL MAINTAIN EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
PASSES. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE DOWN TO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S
ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS ARE ALSO BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S EXPECTED. MODELS WERE SHOWING SOME MOISTURE SPREADING
NORTH SUN NIGHT OR MON BUT THEY ARE NOW BACKING OFF ON THIS IDEA. SO
THE FORECAST IS NOW LOOKING DRIER OVER THIS PERIOD AS WELL. THE
FORECAST IS ALSO LOOKING DRIER THROUGH MIDWEEK NOW AS THE EURO TRIES
TO BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTH INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA THIS MORNING WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN NOW RESIDES. THE
COASTAL RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME STEADY LIGHT RAIN CONCENTRATED
ALONG THE COAST AND W/SW SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS. UP TO A COUPLE
TENTHS HAS FALLEN THE PAST 3 HOURS OVER THE OLYMPICS WITH THE
RAINFALL RATES CONTINUING A DOWNTREND. RAIN IS ALSO DECREASING
ACROSS THE N CASCADES WHERE UP TO 1 INCH FELL OVERNIGHT. RAIN IS NOW
IN A LULL ACROSS WRN WA AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN A HALF INCH AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE CASCADES OF
WHATCOM/SKAGIT COUNTIES AND THE OLYMPICS. BECAUSE RAINFALL HAS
TAPERED...THE ODDS OF THE NOOKSACK AT CEDARVILLE REACHING FLOOD
TODAY ARE LOW BUT STILL NEEDS TO BE WATCHED. THE STILLAGUAMISH
REACHED FLOOD OVERNIGHT BUT IS ON THE DOWNTURN AND SHOULD FALL BELOW
FLOOD LATER TODAY.

THE SNOQUALMIE RIVER AT THE FALLS CRESTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
THE CREST MOVING DOWNSTREAM THROUGH CARNATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FLOODING ON THE SNOQUALMIE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
SKYKOMISH RIVER RAN WITHIN A FOOT OF FLOOD STAGE EARLIER THIS
MORNING BUT IS NOW ON THE DOWNTURN. THE SNOHOMISH...WHICH IS FORMED
BY THE CONFLUENCE OF THE SKYKOMISH AND SNOQUALMIE RIVERS...COULD
HAVE SOME FLOODING LATER TODAY.

THE RIVERS THAT FLOW OFF MOUNT RAINIER ARE RECEDING. THE FLOODING
HAS ENDED FOR THE CARBON AND NISQUALLY RIVERS...BUT FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE COWLITZ AND REACH OF THE PUYALLUP NEAR ORTING.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING RENEWED RAINFALL TO WRN WA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...LOCALLY HEAVY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH
CASCADES WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...BUT LOCALLY UP TO 5
INCHES OVER MOUNT RAINIER AND SKYKOMISH-SNOQUALMIE-TOLT-SNOHOMISH
BASIN IS POSSIBLE TOO. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE 5500 TO 7000 FT FOR
MOST OF THE EVENT...THEN FALL ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PRECIPITATION DECREASES.

A MAJOR FLOODING EPISODE IS UNLIKELY...BUT THE RAINFALL COULD
CERTAINLY RENEW FLOODING ON THE RIVERS THAT FLOODED OR ALMOST
FLOODED AND SOME OTHER RIVERS COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE AS WELL. A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH INCLUDES ALL
THE COUNTIES WITH RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES
AND MASON COUNTY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FLOOD ON THE SKOKOMISH.

COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...SO RIVERS SHOULD
RECEDE AND THE FLOOD THREAT WILL END FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...DELAYED...THE WARM FRONT THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RAIN TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS MOVED INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA. HOWEVER A WARM MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON WITH WIDESPREAD LOW-END MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING SOME VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM IN FOG AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.

IMPROVEMENT TODAY WILL BE GRADUAL AND MAINLY LIMITED TO THE PUGET
SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. ANOTHER VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE COAST LATE TODAY...SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN WASHINGTON INTERIOR THIS EVENING. WHATEVER IMPROVEMENT
OCCURS TODAY IS LIKELY TO BE QUICKLY UNDONE AS A RESULT.

KSEA...SOUTH WIND MOSTLY 10-16 KT GUSTING 24 KT THROUGH TONIGHT...
EXCEPT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
ARRIVES.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...DELAYED...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY AND
MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
COMMON MOST WATERS TODAY...THEN GALES FOR SOME WATERS TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG FRASER OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE OTHER WATERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
     WESTERN WASHINGTON.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR BAR FOR ROUGH BAR.
    .GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES STRAIT OF JUAN DE
     FUCA...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
     TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KSEW 261753
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
952 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOR MORE RAIN
AND WINDY CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THEN CROSSES THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
SNOW. COOL DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WESTERN WASHINGTON IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A WARM
FRONT THAT IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN B.C. THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WERE RATHER MILD OVERNIGHT FROM THE GREATER PUGET SOUND
REGION SOUTHWARD...AND REMAIN SO THIS MORNING WITH READINGS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S. THE WARM AIR HAS NOT QUITE REACHED THE NW INTERIOR
WHERE TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE UPPER 40S...BUT SHOULD GET THERE
EVENTUALLY TODAY. THE LULL IN RAIN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE NEXT
FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT.

THE APPROACHING FRONT WAS OFFSHORE NEARING 130W AT 16Z/8 AM THIS
MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COAST AROUND 06Z/10 PM TONIGHT.
FROPA OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD BE BEFORE 12Z/4 AM. S-SE SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD PEAK THIS EVENING IN THE LOW END
WIND ADVISORY RANGE FOR THE USUAL AREAS...COAST AND N INTERIOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND.

IN ADDITION...STRONG SW LOW LEVEL FLOW ALOFT AT 850 MB IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING THEN CONTINUE IN THE
35-45KT RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT OVER B.C. MOVES
S. THE SW FLOW WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE OLYMPICS AND N CASCADES WITH
HEAVY RAIN...WITH WIDESPREAD 3 INCH AMOUNTS AND A BULLSEYE OF AROUND
5 INCHES AROUND MT BAKER FOR THE 36 HOUR PERIOD 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...6000 TO 7000 FEET TONIGHT
LOWERING TO 5000-6000 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVY RAIN HAS A GOOD
CHANCE OF PRODUCING SOME FLOODING ON SOME OF THE RIVERS FLOWING OFF
THE N CASCADES. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...SEE THE HYDRO
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

AFTER TONIGHTS FRONT EXITS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE OLD
WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN B.C. WILL BE DRIVEN SOUTH ACROSS W WA AS A
COLD FRONT...BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SOUTH FROM
NORTHERN B.C.  MODELS BRING THE BACK EDGE OF THE FRONT TO THE N
INTERIOR FRIDAY MORNING...THEN DOWN ACROSS PUGET SOUND LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN FINALLY APPROACHING THE OREGON BORDER LATE FRIDAY
EVENING. RAIN WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES S.

INTERESTING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS VERY
COLD ALOFT AND WILL GRADUALLY COOL THE AIR MASS ENOUGH OVERNIGHT SO
THAT RAIN AND SNOW MIXED OR JUST SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE
SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY. IN
ADDITION WINDS WILL BE RIGHT FOR A CONVERGENCE ZONE TO FORM OVER
CENTRAL PUGET SOUND.

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH FORMING OVER THE B.C.INTERIOR WILL GENERATE
FRASER RIVER VALLEY OUTFLOW WINDS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD COOL
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS W WA...WITH CLEARING FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NE WINDS COULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE FAR N INTERIOR. THE
COLD AIR WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE 20S ACROSS W WA SUNDAY MORNING. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 330 AM AFD...LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS OVER WESTERN WA ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRES OVER INTERIOR B.C. WILL MAINTAIN EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
PASSES. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE DOWN TO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S
ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS ARE ALSO BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S EXPECTED. MODELS WERE SHOWING SOME MOISTURE SPREADING
NORTH SUN NIGHT OR MON BUT THEY ARE NOW BACKING OFF ON THIS IDEA. SO
THE FORECAST IS NOW LOOKING DRIER OVER THIS PERIOD AS WELL. THE
FORECAST IS ALSO LOOKING DRIER THROUGH MIDWEEK NOW AS THE EURO TRIES
TO BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTH INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA THIS MORNING WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN NOW RESIDES. THE
COASTAL RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME STEADY LIGHT RAIN CONCENTRATED
ALONG THE COAST AND W/SW SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS. UP TO A COUPLE
TENTHS HAS FALLEN THE PAST 3 HOURS OVER THE OLYMPICS WITH THE
RAINFALL RATES CONTINUING A DOWNTREND. RAIN IS ALSO DECREASING
ACROSS THE N CASCADES WHERE UP TO 1 INCH FELL OVERNIGHT. RAIN IS NOW
IN A LULL ACROSS WRN WA AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN A HALF INCH AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE CASCADES OF
WHATCOM/SKAGIT COUNTIES AND THE OLYMPICS. BECAUSE RAINFALL HAS
TAPERED...THE ODDS OF THE NOOKSACK AT CEDARVILLE REACHING FLOOD
TODAY ARE LOW BUT STILL NEEDS TO BE WATCHED. THE STILLAGUAMISH
REACHED FLOOD OVERNIGHT BUT IS ON THE DOWNTURN AND SHOULD FALL BELOW
FLOOD LATER TODAY.

THE SNOQUALMIE RIVER AT THE FALLS CRESTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
THE CREST MOVING DOWNSTREAM THROUGH CARNATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FLOODING ON THE SNOQUALMIE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
SKYKOMISH RIVER RAN WITHIN A FOOT OF FLOOD STAGE EARLIER THIS
MORNING BUT IS NOW ON THE DOWNTURN. THE SNOHOMISH...WHICH IS FORMED
BY THE CONFLUENCE OF THE SKYKOMISH AND SNOQUALMIE RIVERS...COULD
HAVE SOME FLOODING LATER TODAY.

THE RIVERS THAT FLOW OFF MOUNT RAINIER ARE RECEDING. THE FLOODING
HAS ENDED FOR THE CARBON AND NISQUALLY RIVERS...BUT FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE COWLITZ AND REACH OF THE PUYALLUP NEAR ORTING.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING RENEWED RAINFALL TO WRN WA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...LOCALLY HEAVY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH
CASCADES WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...BUT LOCALLY UP TO 5
INCHES OVER MOUNT RAINIER AND SKYKOMISH-SNOQUALMIE-TOLT-SNOHOMISH
BASIN IS POSSIBLE TOO. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE 5500 TO 7000 FT FOR
MOST OF THE EVENT...THEN FALL ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PRECIPITATION DECREASES.

A MAJOR FLOODING EPISODE IS UNLIKELY...BUT THE RAINFALL COULD
CERTAINLY RENEW FLOODING ON THE RIVERS THAT FLOODED OR ALMOST
FLOODED AND SOME OTHER RIVERS COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE AS WELL. A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH INCLUDES ALL
THE COUNTIES WITH RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES
AND MASON COUNTY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FLOOD ON THE SKOKOMISH.

COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...SO RIVERS SHOULD
RECEDE AND THE FLOOD THREAT WILL END FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...DELAYED...THE WARM FRONT THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RAIN TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS MOVED INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA. HOWEVER A WARM MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON WITH WIDESPREAD LOW-END MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING SOME VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM IN FOG AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.

IMPROVEMENT TODAY WILL BE GRADUAL AND MAINLY LIMITED TO THE PUGET
SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. ANOTHER VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE COAST LATE TODAY...SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN WASHINGTON INTERIOR THIS EVENING. WHATEVER IMPROVEMENT
OCCURS TODAY IS LIKELY TO BE QUICKLY UNDONE AS A RESULT.

KSEA...SOUTH WIND MOSTLY 10-16 KT GUSTING 24 KT THROUGH TONIGHT...
EXCEPT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
ARRIVES.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...DELAYED...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY AND
MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
COMMON MOST WATERS TODAY...THEN GALES FOR SOME WATERS TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG FRASER OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE OTHER WATERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
     WESTERN WASHINGTON.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR BAR FOR ROUGH BAR.
    .GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES STRAIT OF JUAN DE
     FUCA...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
     TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KOTX 261154
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
354 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected today and Thanksgiving. By
late this morning, snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today: The axis of the heaviest precipitation will continue to
migrate northward today as the jet stream is shunted Alberta and
Montana. Forecasting snow levels in the northern Cascades,
northeast Washington and far north Idaho over the last 24 hour has
been brutal. There has been a tremendously tight gradient between
snow levels of 6000 feet in places like Stevens Pass and the
valley floor in the Methow Valley. Fortunately this morning,
precipitation amounts will not be as heavy as they were yesterday
afternoon and evening. An additional 1 to 3 inches of snow
accumulation is expected this morning over the Pasayten Wilderness
to Sherman Pass to the mountains near Sandpoint. Another inch or
two of accumulation will also be possible early this morning over
Lookout Pass before snow transitions to rain shortly after
sunrise. Winter Weather Advisories will remain in effect through
10 AM for Lookout Pass and the northern portions of Stevens, Pend
Oreille, Bonner and Boundary counties.

The temperature forecast has been lowered along the East Slopes of
the Cascades, Waterville Plateau into the Moses Lake area. Thick
low clouds and fog will likely linger for a good portion of the
day. For the Palouse, West Plains and Ritzville areas, south winds
of 10 to 15 mph should develop by late morning providing mixing to
warm temperatures into the 40s and 50s.

Tonight into Thanksgiving: Snow levels will be at or above 6000
feet for Idaho and Washington tonight into Thanksgiving. Mountain
passes will experience periods of rain during this busy holiday
travel period, but the roads should be in relatively good shape.
Thanksgiving has the potential to be one of the warmest days of
the month. Despite mostly cloudy conditions, breezy southwest
winds will provide the mixing needed this time of year to push
temperatures into the 50s over much of the region. /GKoch

Friday through Sunday night...The region will start out under a
relatively warm and wet pattern Friday then transition to a much
colder but drier regime over the weekend. Westerly flow aloft will
continue to direct a moisture laden fetch across the region
Friday. The areas most favored for precipitation will be the
Cascade crest and the rising terrain north and east of the
Columbia Basin. The entire eastern half of the forecast area will
likely see a decent amount of precip as a surface low tracks south
from southeast British Columbia into central Idaho by Saturday.
Right now models are generally tracking it through the Idaho
panhandle but the precise track will determine how far west into
the basin the precip will extend. QPF could easily top an inch or
two for north Idaho as the low slowly sinks south. Snow levels
will start out quite high, ranging from 5k to 7k ft. Only the
highest peaks will see snow on Friday.

An arctic front will drop south across the forecast area Friday night
and Saturday, bringing in much drier and colder air, chasing
precip to the southeast zones by Saturday evening. Plunging snow
levels will allow accumulating snow for the southeast valleys with
possible winter highlight criteria being achieved, particularly
for the Camas Prairie on Saturday. Temperatures will plummet
Friday night with single digits for the typical cold spots in the
northern valleys. Most locations will see a 20 to 30 degree drop
overnight with only the southernmost valleys escaping freezing
temps. As the low drops south, the building arctic high over BC
will strengthen the surface pressure gradient between them. Winds
will increase down the north-south valleys and be funneled down
the Purcell trench and into the west Plains and basin. Expect wind
chill temperatures below zero in the Okanogan valley where the
strongest winds and very cold temps will prevail.

Cold conditions will continue Saturday night and Sunday with much
of the forecast area remaining dry. The exception will be the
southernmost counties where the surface front will stall. Surface
winds will diminish but remain northerly, reinforcing the cold air
in the valleys. Southwest flow ahead of the next Pacific trough
will result in strong warm air advection in the mid levels for
Sunday night into Monday. This layer of warm air overrunning the
resident cold air at the surface could bring mixed precipitation
to the Columbia Basin, Wenatchee Valley, L-C valley and possibly
as far north as the Spokane area. Temperature profiles for the
northern valleys appear to be cold enough to support all snow.
/Kelch

Monday through Wednesday: An active weather pattern is expected to
continue through this period. The GFS has been more consistent
with pushing warm moist air mass form the Southwest into the
region compared with the ECMWF which is depicting a dry Northwest
flow. This set up is expected to bring widespread precip to the
region. Snow for most locations in the Inland Northwest excluding
the rain for the Palouse and Camas Prairie areas through Tuesday
morning. A small ridge is expected to begin to build in the region
on Tuesday and bring a decrease in the precip Columbia Basin and
continues snow to the Cascades, Idaho Panhandle, and Canadian
Border regions. Temperatures are expected to range from upper 20s
for highs and low teens for lows. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A 24 hour rain event over much of the Inland Northwest
has left a soup of low stratus and fog. Deep surface low pressure
approaching Vancouver Island today will produce increasing
southwest winds over southeast Washington which should bring some
improvement to ceilings. Fog and stratus should lift at
Lewiston and Pullman this morning. Low level wind shear has been
included at Pullman prior to 17z. Nearby Alpowa summit is gusting
to 40 mph and NAM forecast sounding show strong winds at 2000 feet
off the deck. Cold air damming along the East Slopes of the
Cascades into the Moses Lake area could make ceiling and
visibility improvements very slow to evolve. The 12z TAFS show a
gradual lifting of the cloud deck, but this may be optimistic
looking at the dewpoints over the southern Columbia Basin which
will be advected into the cold stable air trapped along the East
Slopes. /GKoch


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        45  42  50  40  45  26 /  80  30  30  20  80  60
Coeur d`Alene  44  41  48  40  44  27 /  90  30  30  20  90  70
Pullman        54  44  53  42  48  31 /  30  30  30  20  80  80
Lewiston       56  47  58  45  52  37 /  10  10  10  20  70  80
Colville       38  38  46  38  42  20 /  90  60  50  40  80  10
Sandpoint      39  38  45  37  41  25 / 100  70  60  50  90  50
Kellogg        43  40  44  38  40  29 / 100  60  70  70  90  80
Moses Lake     46  44  55  40  50  25 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
Wenatchee      43  42  50  41  47  27 /  10  10  10  20  30  10
Omak           38  38  46  35  40  14 /  50  30  30  30  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for
     Northeast Mountains.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 261154
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
354 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected today and Thanksgiving. By
late this morning, snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today: The axis of the heaviest precipitation will continue to
migrate northward today as the jet stream is shunted Alberta and
Montana. Forecasting snow levels in the northern Cascades,
northeast Washington and far north Idaho over the last 24 hour has
been brutal. There has been a tremendously tight gradient between
snow levels of 6000 feet in places like Stevens Pass and the
valley floor in the Methow Valley. Fortunately this morning,
precipitation amounts will not be as heavy as they were yesterday
afternoon and evening. An additional 1 to 3 inches of snow
accumulation is expected this morning over the Pasayten Wilderness
to Sherman Pass to the mountains near Sandpoint. Another inch or
two of accumulation will also be possible early this morning over
Lookout Pass before snow transitions to rain shortly after
sunrise. Winter Weather Advisories will remain in effect through
10 AM for Lookout Pass and the northern portions of Stevens, Pend
Oreille, Bonner and Boundary counties.

The temperature forecast has been lowered along the East Slopes of
the Cascades, Waterville Plateau into the Moses Lake area. Thick
low clouds and fog will likely linger for a good portion of the
day. For the Palouse, West Plains and Ritzville areas, south winds
of 10 to 15 mph should develop by late morning providing mixing to
warm temperatures into the 40s and 50s.

Tonight into Thanksgiving: Snow levels will be at or above 6000
feet for Idaho and Washington tonight into Thanksgiving. Mountain
passes will experience periods of rain during this busy holiday
travel period, but the roads should be in relatively good shape.
Thanksgiving has the potential to be one of the warmest days of
the month. Despite mostly cloudy conditions, breezy southwest
winds will provide the mixing needed this time of year to push
temperatures into the 50s over much of the region. /GKoch

Friday through Sunday night...The region will start out under a
relatively warm and wet pattern Friday then transition to a much
colder but drier regime over the weekend. Westerly flow aloft will
continue to direct a moisture laden fetch across the region
Friday. The areas most favored for precipitation will be the
Cascade crest and the rising terrain north and east of the
Columbia Basin. The entire eastern half of the forecast area will
likely see a decent amount of precip as a surface low tracks south
from southeast British Columbia into central Idaho by Saturday.
Right now models are generally tracking it through the Idaho
panhandle but the precise track will determine how far west into
the basin the precip will extend. QPF could easily top an inch or
two for north Idaho as the low slowly sinks south. Snow levels
will start out quite high, ranging from 5k to 7k ft. Only the
highest peaks will see snow on Friday.

An arctic front will drop south across the forecast area Friday night
and Saturday, bringing in much drier and colder air, chasing
precip to the southeast zones by Saturday evening. Plunging snow
levels will allow accumulating snow for the southeast valleys with
possible winter highlight criteria being achieved, particularly
for the Camas Prairie on Saturday. Temperatures will plummet
Friday night with single digits for the typical cold spots in the
northern valleys. Most locations will see a 20 to 30 degree drop
overnight with only the southernmost valleys escaping freezing
temps. As the low drops south, the building arctic high over BC
will strengthen the surface pressure gradient between them. Winds
will increase down the north-south valleys and be funneled down
the Purcell trench and into the west Plains and basin. Expect wind
chill temperatures below zero in the Okanogan valley where the
strongest winds and very cold temps will prevail.

Cold conditions will continue Saturday night and Sunday with much
of the forecast area remaining dry. The exception will be the
southernmost counties where the surface front will stall. Surface
winds will diminish but remain northerly, reinforcing the cold air
in the valleys. Southwest flow ahead of the next Pacific trough
will result in strong warm air advection in the mid levels for
Sunday night into Monday. This layer of warm air overrunning the
resident cold air at the surface could bring mixed precipitation
to the Columbia Basin, Wenatchee Valley, L-C valley and possibly
as far north as the Spokane area. Temperature profiles for the
northern valleys appear to be cold enough to support all snow.
/Kelch

Monday through Wednesday: An active weather pattern is expected to
continue through this period. The GFS has been more consistent
with pushing warm moist air mass form the Southwest into the
region compared with the ECMWF which is depicting a dry Northwest
flow. This set up is expected to bring widespread precip to the
region. Snow for most locations in the Inland Northwest excluding
the rain for the Palouse and Camas Prairie areas through Tuesday
morning. A small ridge is expected to begin to build in the region
on Tuesday and bring a decrease in the precip Columbia Basin and
continues snow to the Cascades, Idaho Panhandle, and Canadian
Border regions. Temperatures are expected to range from upper 20s
for highs and low teens for lows. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A 24 hour rain event over much of the Inland Northwest
has left a soup of low stratus and fog. Deep surface low pressure
approaching Vancouver Island today will produce increasing
southwest winds over southeast Washington which should bring some
improvement to ceilings. Fog and stratus should lift at
Lewiston and Pullman this morning. Low level wind shear has been
included at Pullman prior to 17z. Nearby Alpowa summit is gusting
to 40 mph and NAM forecast sounding show strong winds at 2000 feet
off the deck. Cold air damming along the East Slopes of the
Cascades into the Moses Lake area could make ceiling and
visibility improvements very slow to evolve. The 12z TAFS show a
gradual lifting of the cloud deck, but this may be optimistic
looking at the dewpoints over the southern Columbia Basin which
will be advected into the cold stable air trapped along the East
Slopes. /GKoch


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        45  42  50  40  45  26 /  80  30  30  20  80  60
Coeur d`Alene  44  41  48  40  44  27 /  90  30  30  20  90  70
Pullman        54  44  53  42  48  31 /  30  30  30  20  80  80
Lewiston       56  47  58  45  52  37 /  10  10  10  20  70  80
Colville       38  38  46  38  42  20 /  90  60  50  40  80  10
Sandpoint      39  38  45  37  41  25 / 100  70  60  50  90  50
Kellogg        43  40  44  38  40  29 / 100  60  70  70  90  80
Moses Lake     46  44  55  40  50  25 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
Wenatchee      43  42  50  41  47  27 /  10  10  10  20  30  10
Omak           38  38  46  35  40  14 /  50  30  30  30  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for
     Northeast Mountains.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 261154
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
354 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected today and Thanksgiving. By
late this morning, snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today: The axis of the heaviest precipitation will continue to
migrate northward today as the jet stream is shunted Alberta and
Montana. Forecasting snow levels in the northern Cascades,
northeast Washington and far north Idaho over the last 24 hour has
been brutal. There has been a tremendously tight gradient between
snow levels of 6000 feet in places like Stevens Pass and the
valley floor in the Methow Valley. Fortunately this morning,
precipitation amounts will not be as heavy as they were yesterday
afternoon and evening. An additional 1 to 3 inches of snow
accumulation is expected this morning over the Pasayten Wilderness
to Sherman Pass to the mountains near Sandpoint. Another inch or
two of accumulation will also be possible early this morning over
Lookout Pass before snow transitions to rain shortly after
sunrise. Winter Weather Advisories will remain in effect through
10 AM for Lookout Pass and the northern portions of Stevens, Pend
Oreille, Bonner and Boundary counties.

The temperature forecast has been lowered along the East Slopes of
the Cascades, Waterville Plateau into the Moses Lake area. Thick
low clouds and fog will likely linger for a good portion of the
day. For the Palouse, West Plains and Ritzville areas, south winds
of 10 to 15 mph should develop by late morning providing mixing to
warm temperatures into the 40s and 50s.

Tonight into Thanksgiving: Snow levels will be at or above 6000
feet for Idaho and Washington tonight into Thanksgiving. Mountain
passes will experience periods of rain during this busy holiday
travel period, but the roads should be in relatively good shape.
Thanksgiving has the potential to be one of the warmest days of
the month. Despite mostly cloudy conditions, breezy southwest
winds will provide the mixing needed this time of year to push
temperatures into the 50s over much of the region. /GKoch

Friday through Sunday night...The region will start out under a
relatively warm and wet pattern Friday then transition to a much
colder but drier regime over the weekend. Westerly flow aloft will
continue to direct a moisture laden fetch across the region
Friday. The areas most favored for precipitation will be the
Cascade crest and the rising terrain north and east of the
Columbia Basin. The entire eastern half of the forecast area will
likely see a decent amount of precip as a surface low tracks south
from southeast British Columbia into central Idaho by Saturday.
Right now models are generally tracking it through the Idaho
panhandle but the precise track will determine how far west into
the basin the precip will extend. QPF could easily top an inch or
two for north Idaho as the low slowly sinks south. Snow levels
will start out quite high, ranging from 5k to 7k ft. Only the
highest peaks will see snow on Friday.

An arctic front will drop south across the forecast area Friday night
and Saturday, bringing in much drier and colder air, chasing
precip to the southeast zones by Saturday evening. Plunging snow
levels will allow accumulating snow for the southeast valleys with
possible winter highlight criteria being achieved, particularly
for the Camas Prairie on Saturday. Temperatures will plummet
Friday night with single digits for the typical cold spots in the
northern valleys. Most locations will see a 20 to 30 degree drop
overnight with only the southernmost valleys escaping freezing
temps. As the low drops south, the building arctic high over BC
will strengthen the surface pressure gradient between them. Winds
will increase down the north-south valleys and be funneled down
the Purcell trench and into the west Plains and basin. Expect wind
chill temperatures below zero in the Okanogan valley where the
strongest winds and very cold temps will prevail.

Cold conditions will continue Saturday night and Sunday with much
of the forecast area remaining dry. The exception will be the
southernmost counties where the surface front will stall. Surface
winds will diminish but remain northerly, reinforcing the cold air
in the valleys. Southwest flow ahead of the next Pacific trough
will result in strong warm air advection in the mid levels for
Sunday night into Monday. This layer of warm air overrunning the
resident cold air at the surface could bring mixed precipitation
to the Columbia Basin, Wenatchee Valley, L-C valley and possibly
as far north as the Spokane area. Temperature profiles for the
northern valleys appear to be cold enough to support all snow.
/Kelch

Monday through Wednesday: An active weather pattern is expected to
continue through this period. The GFS has been more consistent
with pushing warm moist air mass form the Southwest into the
region compared with the ECMWF which is depicting a dry Northwest
flow. This set up is expected to bring widespread precip to the
region. Snow for most locations in the Inland Northwest excluding
the rain for the Palouse and Camas Prairie areas through Tuesday
morning. A small ridge is expected to begin to build in the region
on Tuesday and bring a decrease in the precip Columbia Basin and
continues snow to the Cascades, Idaho Panhandle, and Canadian
Border regions. Temperatures are expected to range from upper 20s
for highs and low teens for lows. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A 24 hour rain event over much of the Inland Northwest
has left a soup of low stratus and fog. Deep surface low pressure
approaching Vancouver Island today will produce increasing
southwest winds over southeast Washington which should bring some
improvement to ceilings. Fog and stratus should lift at
Lewiston and Pullman this morning. Low level wind shear has been
included at Pullman prior to 17z. Nearby Alpowa summit is gusting
to 40 mph and NAM forecast sounding show strong winds at 2000 feet
off the deck. Cold air damming along the East Slopes of the
Cascades into the Moses Lake area could make ceiling and
visibility improvements very slow to evolve. The 12z TAFS show a
gradual lifting of the cloud deck, but this may be optimistic
looking at the dewpoints over the southern Columbia Basin which
will be advected into the cold stable air trapped along the East
Slopes. /GKoch


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        45  42  50  40  45  26 /  80  30  30  20  80  60
Coeur d`Alene  44  41  48  40  44  27 /  90  30  30  20  90  70
Pullman        54  44  53  42  48  31 /  30  30  30  20  80  80
Lewiston       56  47  58  45  52  37 /  10  10  10  20  70  80
Colville       38  38  46  38  42  20 /  90  60  50  40  80  10
Sandpoint      39  38  45  37  41  25 / 100  70  60  50  90  50
Kellogg        43  40  44  38  40  29 / 100  60  70  70  90  80
Moses Lake     46  44  55  40  50  25 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
Wenatchee      43  42  50  41  47  27 /  10  10  10  20  30  10
Omak           38  38  46  35  40  14 /  50  30  30  30  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for
     Northeast Mountains.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 261154
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
354 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected today and Thanksgiving. By
late this morning, snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today: The axis of the heaviest precipitation will continue to
migrate northward today as the jet stream is shunted Alberta and
Montana. Forecasting snow levels in the northern Cascades,
northeast Washington and far north Idaho over the last 24 hour has
been brutal. There has been a tremendously tight gradient between
snow levels of 6000 feet in places like Stevens Pass and the
valley floor in the Methow Valley. Fortunately this morning,
precipitation amounts will not be as heavy as they were yesterday
afternoon and evening. An additional 1 to 3 inches of snow
accumulation is expected this morning over the Pasayten Wilderness
to Sherman Pass to the mountains near Sandpoint. Another inch or
two of accumulation will also be possible early this morning over
Lookout Pass before snow transitions to rain shortly after
sunrise. Winter Weather Advisories will remain in effect through
10 AM for Lookout Pass and the northern portions of Stevens, Pend
Oreille, Bonner and Boundary counties.

The temperature forecast has been lowered along the East Slopes of
the Cascades, Waterville Plateau into the Moses Lake area. Thick
low clouds and fog will likely linger for a good portion of the
day. For the Palouse, West Plains and Ritzville areas, south winds
of 10 to 15 mph should develop by late morning providing mixing to
warm temperatures into the 40s and 50s.

Tonight into Thanksgiving: Snow levels will be at or above 6000
feet for Idaho and Washington tonight into Thanksgiving. Mountain
passes will experience periods of rain during this busy holiday
travel period, but the roads should be in relatively good shape.
Thanksgiving has the potential to be one of the warmest days of
the month. Despite mostly cloudy conditions, breezy southwest
winds will provide the mixing needed this time of year to push
temperatures into the 50s over much of the region. /GKoch

Friday through Sunday night...The region will start out under a
relatively warm and wet pattern Friday then transition to a much
colder but drier regime over the weekend. Westerly flow aloft will
continue to direct a moisture laden fetch across the region
Friday. The areas most favored for precipitation will be the
Cascade crest and the rising terrain north and east of the
Columbia Basin. The entire eastern half of the forecast area will
likely see a decent amount of precip as a surface low tracks south
from southeast British Columbia into central Idaho by Saturday.
Right now models are generally tracking it through the Idaho
panhandle but the precise track will determine how far west into
the basin the precip will extend. QPF could easily top an inch or
two for north Idaho as the low slowly sinks south. Snow levels
will start out quite high, ranging from 5k to 7k ft. Only the
highest peaks will see snow on Friday.

An arctic front will drop south across the forecast area Friday night
and Saturday, bringing in much drier and colder air, chasing
precip to the southeast zones by Saturday evening. Plunging snow
levels will allow accumulating snow for the southeast valleys with
possible winter highlight criteria being achieved, particularly
for the Camas Prairie on Saturday. Temperatures will plummet
Friday night with single digits for the typical cold spots in the
northern valleys. Most locations will see a 20 to 30 degree drop
overnight with only the southernmost valleys escaping freezing
temps. As the low drops south, the building arctic high over BC
will strengthen the surface pressure gradient between them. Winds
will increase down the north-south valleys and be funneled down
the Purcell trench and into the west Plains and basin. Expect wind
chill temperatures below zero in the Okanogan valley where the
strongest winds and very cold temps will prevail.

Cold conditions will continue Saturday night and Sunday with much
of the forecast area remaining dry. The exception will be the
southernmost counties where the surface front will stall. Surface
winds will diminish but remain northerly, reinforcing the cold air
in the valleys. Southwest flow ahead of the next Pacific trough
will result in strong warm air advection in the mid levels for
Sunday night into Monday. This layer of warm air overrunning the
resident cold air at the surface could bring mixed precipitation
to the Columbia Basin, Wenatchee Valley, L-C valley and possibly
as far north as the Spokane area. Temperature profiles for the
northern valleys appear to be cold enough to support all snow.
/Kelch

Monday through Wednesday: An active weather pattern is expected to
continue through this period. The GFS has been more consistent
with pushing warm moist air mass form the Southwest into the
region compared with the ECMWF which is depicting a dry Northwest
flow. This set up is expected to bring widespread precip to the
region. Snow for most locations in the Inland Northwest excluding
the rain for the Palouse and Camas Prairie areas through Tuesday
morning. A small ridge is expected to begin to build in the region
on Tuesday and bring a decrease in the precip Columbia Basin and
continues snow to the Cascades, Idaho Panhandle, and Canadian
Border regions. Temperatures are expected to range from upper 20s
for highs and low teens for lows. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A 24 hour rain event over much of the Inland Northwest
has left a soup of low stratus and fog. Deep surface low pressure
approaching Vancouver Island today will produce increasing
southwest winds over southeast Washington which should bring some
improvement to ceilings. Fog and stratus should lift at
Lewiston and Pullman this morning. Low level wind shear has been
included at Pullman prior to 17z. Nearby Alpowa summit is gusting
to 40 mph and NAM forecast sounding show strong winds at 2000 feet
off the deck. Cold air damming along the East Slopes of the
Cascades into the Moses Lake area could make ceiling and
visibility improvements very slow to evolve. The 12z TAFS show a
gradual lifting of the cloud deck, but this may be optimistic
looking at the dewpoints over the southern Columbia Basin which
will be advected into the cold stable air trapped along the East
Slopes. /GKoch


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        45  42  50  40  45  26 /  80  30  30  20  80  60
Coeur d`Alene  44  41  48  40  44  27 /  90  30  30  20  90  70
Pullman        54  44  53  42  48  31 /  30  30  30  20  80  80
Lewiston       56  47  58  45  52  37 /  10  10  10  20  70  80
Colville       38  38  46  38  42  20 /  90  60  50  40  80  10
Sandpoint      39  38  45  37  41  25 / 100  70  60  50  90  50
Kellogg        43  40  44  38  40  29 / 100  60  70  70  90  80
Moses Lake     46  44  55  40  50  25 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
Wenatchee      43  42  50  41  47  27 /  10  10  10  20  30  10
Omak           38  38  46  35  40  14 /  50  30  30  30  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for
     Northeast Mountains.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 261120
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
320 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOSTLY LIFTED NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH JUST A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BRUSHING SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...AND MILD AND DRY
WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE AREA EXCEPT SOME LOCAL MORNING FOG. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST AND START TO MOVE ONSHORE
TONIGHT...SPREADING ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING. LOOK FOR
RAIN AND COASTAL WIND. A SECONDARY COLDER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON FOR MORE RAIN ON
FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
JET STREAM IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF EAST WIND IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER DRAMATICALLY THIS WEEKEND...BUT SLOWLY RISE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR IS RATHER QUIET EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH JUST SOME
RESIDUAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. THE
MAIN WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...LEAVING SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON IN THE VERY MILD WARM SECTOR. MOST OF
THE AREA WILL BE DRY TODAY AND AGAIN QUITE MILD... AND A FEW RECORDS
MAINLY IN THE NORTH WILL BE IN REACH AGAIN TODAY. WE MAY ALSO SEE
LOCAL FOG THIS MORNING AS DEWPOINTS ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING 130W EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
REACH THE COAST AND BEGIN SPREADING ONSHORE TONIGHT FOR MORE RAIN AND
SOME BRISK COASTAL WINDS...BUT LIKELY STAYING BELOW HIGH WIND
CRITERIA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
THANKSGIVING FOR MORE RAIN AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH IN THE CASCADES.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BENEATH
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET MERGES WITH AN
INCREASING NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET. THIS WILL KEEP SOME RAIN GOING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

A SECONDARY COLDER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN SAGGING INTO OUR AREA FROM
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...MERGING WITH THE STALLED SOUTHERN COLD
FRONT...AND KEEPING THE RAIN GOING...PERHAPS A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN ON
PREVIOUS DAYS. SNOW LEVELS IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES MAY BEGIN
TO FALL LATE IN THE DAY AS THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH BUT
SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY STAY ABOVE THE PASS LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLVES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO SLIDE S THROUGH WA
AND INTO NRN OREGON. 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
ECMWF RUNS...DEPICTING A COLD AIR WEDGE IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE
BY 00Z SUN. LOOK FOR THE EAST WIND TO RETURN AS WELL...BEGINNING SAT
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY 00Z SUN THE GFS HAS -8
TO -10C 850 MB AIR IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
JUST A TOUCH WARMER. FORTUNATELY...THE DRIER NLY FLOW WILL SHUNT
PRECIP FURTHER TO THE S. A CLOSED LOW WELL OF THE NRN CA COAST SAT
STARTS TO DRIFT NE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
DEFORMATION BAND OVER NRN CA TO DRIFT NWD LATE SUN INTO MON. THIS
COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS THE MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE COLD
AIR....ESPECIALLY FOR THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY.
WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ON THE COAST SHOULD IMPROVE LATER
THIS MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS TURN SLIGHTLY MORE OFFSHORE.
INCREASING WINDS AND A NOSE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW CONDITIONS
TO EVEN TEMPORARILY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AS A COLD FRONT...LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN
IMPACT THE COAST TOWARDS 12Z THURSDAY. FURTHER INLAND...MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY...WHICH SHOULD
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...A STRATUS DECK NEAR 5KFT IS CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AND LITTLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING...ANY LOCATIONS THAT
CLEAR WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE RAPIDLY. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT
KEUG AND KSLE...BUT THESE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS COULD SNEAK INTO
THE PORTLAND METRO TOWARDS 15Z WEDNESDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING MAY GIVE WAY
TO MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS TOWARDS 15Z WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
DETERIORATING THESE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL MATERIALIZE.
REGARDLESS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT PLAYER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. /NEUMAN
&&

.MARINE...AN INCOMING FRONTAL STORM SYSTEM WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
INCREASE TODAY. EXPECT PRIMARILY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
GUSTS TO 30 KT. HOWEVER...A WEAK COASTAL JET WILL LIKELY ENHANCE WIND
SPEEDS WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS OF 35 KT TO SURFACE ACROSS THE WATERS. THE HIGHEST WINDS APPEAR
ON TRACK FOR THE 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM THURSDAY TIME FRAME. DUE TO
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THESE SITUATIONS WILL KEEP THE TIMING OF THE
GALE WARNING AS IS.

PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONTAL STORM
SYSTEM SO EXPECT PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE WEAK LOW PRESSURES
TO OUR WEST MAY KEEP GUSTY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SMALL CRAFT SEAS IN
THE LOWER TEENS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A FRONT
SLIDING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS
TO RELAX FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF WHEN THE FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. NONETHELESS... WINDS
SHOULD TURN MORE OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH GUSTY WINDS LIKELY
DEVELOPING NEAR COASTAL GAPS SUCH AS THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER
AND NEAR TILLAMOOK. /NEUMAN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING
     TO 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     9 AM PST THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 261120
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
320 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOSTLY LIFTED NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH JUST A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BRUSHING SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...AND MILD AND DRY
WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE AREA EXCEPT SOME LOCAL MORNING FOG. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST AND START TO MOVE ONSHORE
TONIGHT...SPREADING ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING. LOOK FOR
RAIN AND COASTAL WIND. A SECONDARY COLDER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON FOR MORE RAIN ON
FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
JET STREAM IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF EAST WIND IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER DRAMATICALLY THIS WEEKEND...BUT SLOWLY RISE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR IS RATHER QUIET EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH JUST SOME
RESIDUAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. THE
MAIN WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...LEAVING SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON IN THE VERY MILD WARM SECTOR. MOST OF
THE AREA WILL BE DRY TODAY AND AGAIN QUITE MILD... AND A FEW RECORDS
MAINLY IN THE NORTH WILL BE IN REACH AGAIN TODAY. WE MAY ALSO SEE
LOCAL FOG THIS MORNING AS DEWPOINTS ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING 130W EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
REACH THE COAST AND BEGIN SPREADING ONSHORE TONIGHT FOR MORE RAIN AND
SOME BRISK COASTAL WINDS...BUT LIKELY STAYING BELOW HIGH WIND
CRITERIA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
THANKSGIVING FOR MORE RAIN AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH IN THE CASCADES.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BENEATH
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET MERGES WITH AN
INCREASING NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET. THIS WILL KEEP SOME RAIN GOING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

A SECONDARY COLDER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN SAGGING INTO OUR AREA FROM
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...MERGING WITH THE STALLED SOUTHERN COLD
FRONT...AND KEEPING THE RAIN GOING...PERHAPS A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN ON
PREVIOUS DAYS. SNOW LEVELS IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES MAY BEGIN
TO FALL LATE IN THE DAY AS THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH BUT
SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY STAY ABOVE THE PASS LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN EVOLVES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO SLIDE S THROUGH WA
AND INTO NRN OREGON. 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
ECMWF RUNS...DEPICTING A COLD AIR WEDGE IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE
BY 00Z SUN. LOOK FOR THE EAST WIND TO RETURN AS WELL...BEGINNING SAT
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY 00Z SUN THE GFS HAS -8
TO -10C 850 MB AIR IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
JUST A TOUCH WARMER. FORTUNATELY...THE DRIER NLY FLOW WILL SHUNT
PRECIP FURTHER TO THE S. A CLOSED LOW WELL OF THE NRN CA COAST SAT
STARTS TO DRIFT NE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
DEFORMATION BAND OVER NRN CA TO DRIFT NWD LATE SUN INTO MON. THIS
COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS THE MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE COLD
AIR....ESPECIALLY FOR THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY.
WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ON THE COAST SHOULD IMPROVE LATER
THIS MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS TURN SLIGHTLY MORE OFFSHORE.
INCREASING WINDS AND A NOSE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW CONDITIONS
TO EVEN TEMPORARILY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AS A COLD FRONT...LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN
IMPACT THE COAST TOWARDS 12Z THURSDAY. FURTHER INLAND...MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY...WHICH SHOULD
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...A STRATUS DECK NEAR 5KFT IS CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AND LITTLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING...ANY LOCATIONS THAT
CLEAR WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE RAPIDLY. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT
KEUG AND KSLE...BUT THESE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS COULD SNEAK INTO
THE PORTLAND METRO TOWARDS 15Z WEDNESDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING MAY GIVE WAY
TO MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS TOWARDS 15Z WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
DETERIORATING THESE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL MATERIALIZE.
REGARDLESS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT PLAYER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. /NEUMAN
&&

.MARINE...AN INCOMING FRONTAL STORM SYSTEM WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
INCREASE TODAY. EXPECT PRIMARILY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
GUSTS TO 30 KT. HOWEVER...A WEAK COASTAL JET WILL LIKELY ENHANCE WIND
SPEEDS WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS OF 35 KT TO SURFACE ACROSS THE WATERS. THE HIGHEST WINDS APPEAR
ON TRACK FOR THE 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM THURSDAY TIME FRAME. DUE TO
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THESE SITUATIONS WILL KEEP THE TIMING OF THE
GALE WARNING AS IS.

PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONTAL STORM
SYSTEM SO EXPECT PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE WEAK LOW PRESSURES
TO OUR WEST MAY KEEP GUSTY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SMALL CRAFT SEAS IN
THE LOWER TEENS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A FRONT
SLIDING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS
TO RELAX FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF WHEN THE FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. NONETHELESS... WINDS
SHOULD TURN MORE OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH GUSTY WINDS LIKELY
DEVELOPING NEAR COASTAL GAPS SUCH AS THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER
AND NEAR TILLAMOOK. /NEUMAN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING
     TO 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     9 AM PST THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 261104
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOR MORE RAIN
AND WINDY CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THEN CROSSES THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. COOL DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WESTERN WASHINGTON IS IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTED NORTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...TEMPS
REMAINED MILD WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 50S THIS MORNING. THE WARM
FRONT IS OVER SOUTHERN B.C. NOW AND RAIN WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA TODAY...AND ALSO THE MOUNTAINS. RIVERS ARE
STILL RISING AND FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNING ARE IN EFFECT...SEE
HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INLAND. SE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MAY SEE WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS ALONG THE COAST
AND NORTH INTERIOR ZONES TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE MOUNTAINS...LEADING TO MORE FLOOD CONCERNS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH AT 6000 TO 7000 FT. EXPECT RAIN AT
TIMES IN THE LOWLANDS THROUGHOUT THANKSGIVING DAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS FROM NW TO SE THROUGH WESTERN WA ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS. THIS FRONT SHOULD
EXIT SOUTH FRI AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING GUSTY FRASER RIVER
OUTFLOW WINDS FRI AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS STRONG HIGH PRES OVER
INTERIOR B.C. SAGS SOUTH. THIS COOL AND DRY AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH
INTO WESTERN WA FRI NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL AND UNSTABLE AS
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ALSO CLIPS WESTERN WA DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE INTERIOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS
THIS TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOW TRYING TO FORM A
CONVERGENCE ZONE WHERE COOL NORTHERLY FRASER OUTFLOW MEETS THE MOIST
S/SW ONSHORE FLOW. COULD SEE RAIN/SNOW IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. BUT
THIS COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE IN THE INTERIOR. TOUGH TO PIN THIS DOWN
EXACTLY BUT DEFINITELY NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE IF THIS SCENARIO
PANS OUT. MODELS DO SHOW THE TROUGH EXITING SAT MORNING WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. 33

.LONG TERM...LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS OVER
WESTERN WA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRES OVER INTERIOR B.C. WILL MAINTAIN
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PASSES. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE DOWN
TO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS ARE ALSO BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXPECTED. MODELS WERE SHOWING
SOME MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH SUN NIGHT OR MON BUT THEY ARE NOW
BACKING OFF ON THIS IDEA. SO THE FORECAST IS NOW LOOKING DRIER OVER
THIS PERIOD AS WELL. THE FORECAST IS ALSO LOOKING DRIER THROUGH
MIDWEEK NOW AS THE EURO TRIES TO BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RAIN RATES HAVE DECREASED THROUGHOUT THE CASCADES
OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE WARM FRONT HAS CONTINUED MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.2 INCHES DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS WERE STILL COMMON FROM THE STILLAGUAMISH BASIN NORTHWARD...BUT
RATES THERE SHOULD DECREASE THIS MORNING. THE STILLAGUAMISH REACHED
FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FLOODING IS STILL A SHORT TERM
CONCERN FOR THE NOOKSACK RIVER.

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH RAIN OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF THE STILLAGUAMISH
BASIN -- GENERALLY 0.5 INCH OR LESS. THE THREE FORKS OF THE
SNOQUALMIE RIVER APPEAR TO HAVE CRESTED...SO THE SNOQUALMIE AT THE
FALLS SHOULD CREST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE CREST MOVING
DOWNSTREAM THROUGH CARNATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FLOODING ON THE
SNOQUALMIE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SKYKOMISH RIVER HAS
BEEN RUNNING WITHIN A FOOT OF FLOOD STAGE...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
BEGIN FALLING SOON. THE SNOHOMISH...WHICH IS FORMED BY THE
CONFLUENCE OF THE SKYKOMISH AND SNOQUALMIE RIVERS...COULD HAVE SOME
FLOODING LATER TODAY.

THE RIVERS THAT FLOW OFF MOUNT RAINIER ARE RECEDING. THE FLOODING
HAS ENDED FOR THE CARBON AND NISQUALLY RIVERS...BUT FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE COWLITZ AND REACH OF THE PUYALLUP NEAR ORTING.

NEXT WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WE ARE
EXPECTING STORM TOTALS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES DURING THE
36 HOURS FROM 4 PM TODAY THROUGH 4 AM FRIDAY. THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH
CASCADES WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...BUT LOCALLY UP TO 5
INCHES OVER MOUNT RAINIER AND SKYKOMISH-SNOQUALMIE-TOLT-SNOHOMISH
BASIN IS POSSIBLE TOO. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE 5500 TO 7000 FT FOR
MOST OF THE EVENT...THEN FALL ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PRECIPITATION DECREASES.

A MAJOR FLOODING EPISODE IS UNLIKELY...BUT THE RAINFALL COULD
CERTAINLY RENEW FLOODING ON THE RIVERS THAT FLOODED OR ALMOST
FLOODED AND SOME OTHER RIVERS COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE AS WELL. A
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH INCLUDES ALL THE
COUNTIES WITH RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND
MASON COUNTY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FLOOD ON THE SKOKOMISH.

COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...SO RIVERS SHOULD
RECEDE AND THE FLOOD THREAT WILL END FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
MCDONNAL

&&

.AVIATION...THE WARM FRONT THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RAIN TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS MOVED INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
HOWEVER A WARM MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH
WIDESPREAD LOW-END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...INCLUDING SOME
VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM IN FOG AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

IMPROVEMENT TODAY WILL BE GRADUAL AND MAINLY LIMITED TO THE PUGET
SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. ANOTHER VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE COAST LATE TODAY...SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN WASHINGTON INTERIOR THIS EVENING. WHATEVER IMPROVEMENT
OCCURS TODAY IS LIKELY TO BE QUICKLY UNDONE AS A RESULT.

KSEA...SOUTH WIND MOSTLY 10-16 KT GUSTING 24 KT THROUGH TONIGHT...
EXCEPT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
ARRIVES.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY AND MOVE
ONSHORE TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE COMMON
MOST WATERS TODAY...THEN GALES FOR SOME WATERS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL BEHIND
THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG FRASER OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE OTHER WATERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
     WESTERN WASHINGTON.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR BAR FOR ROUGH BAR.
    .GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES STRAIT OF JUAN DE
     FUCA...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
     TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 261104
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOR MORE RAIN
AND WINDY CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THEN CROSSES THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. COOL DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WESTERN WASHINGTON IS IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTED NORTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...TEMPS
REMAINED MILD WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 50S THIS MORNING. THE WARM
FRONT IS OVER SOUTHERN B.C. NOW AND RAIN WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA TODAY...AND ALSO THE MOUNTAINS. RIVERS ARE
STILL RISING AND FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNING ARE IN EFFECT...SEE
HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INLAND. SE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MAY SEE WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS ALONG THE COAST
AND NORTH INTERIOR ZONES TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE MOUNTAINS...LEADING TO MORE FLOOD CONCERNS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH AT 6000 TO 7000 FT. EXPECT RAIN AT
TIMES IN THE LOWLANDS THROUGHOUT THANKSGIVING DAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS FROM NW TO SE THROUGH WESTERN WA ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS. THIS FRONT SHOULD
EXIT SOUTH FRI AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING GUSTY FRASER RIVER
OUTFLOW WINDS FRI AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS STRONG HIGH PRES OVER
INTERIOR B.C. SAGS SOUTH. THIS COOL AND DRY AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH
INTO WESTERN WA FRI NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL AND UNSTABLE AS
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ALSO CLIPS WESTERN WA DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE INTERIOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS
THIS TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOW TRYING TO FORM A
CONVERGENCE ZONE WHERE COOL NORTHERLY FRASER OUTFLOW MEETS THE MOIST
S/SW ONSHORE FLOW. COULD SEE RAIN/SNOW IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. BUT
THIS COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE IN THE INTERIOR. TOUGH TO PIN THIS DOWN
EXACTLY BUT DEFINITELY NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE IF THIS SCENARIO
PANS OUT. MODELS DO SHOW THE TROUGH EXITING SAT MORNING WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. 33

.LONG TERM...LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS OVER
WESTERN WA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRES OVER INTERIOR B.C. WILL MAINTAIN
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PASSES. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE DOWN
TO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS ARE ALSO BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXPECTED. MODELS WERE SHOWING
SOME MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH SUN NIGHT OR MON BUT THEY ARE NOW
BACKING OFF ON THIS IDEA. SO THE FORECAST IS NOW LOOKING DRIER OVER
THIS PERIOD AS WELL. THE FORECAST IS ALSO LOOKING DRIER THROUGH
MIDWEEK NOW AS THE EURO TRIES TO BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RAIN RATES HAVE DECREASED THROUGHOUT THE CASCADES
OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE WARM FRONT HAS CONTINUED MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.2 INCHES DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS WERE STILL COMMON FROM THE STILLAGUAMISH BASIN NORTHWARD...BUT
RATES THERE SHOULD DECREASE THIS MORNING. THE STILLAGUAMISH REACHED
FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FLOODING IS STILL A SHORT TERM
CONCERN FOR THE NOOKSACK RIVER.

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH RAIN OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF THE STILLAGUAMISH
BASIN -- GENERALLY 0.5 INCH OR LESS. THE THREE FORKS OF THE
SNOQUALMIE RIVER APPEAR TO HAVE CRESTED...SO THE SNOQUALMIE AT THE
FALLS SHOULD CREST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE CREST MOVING
DOWNSTREAM THROUGH CARNATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FLOODING ON THE
SNOQUALMIE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SKYKOMISH RIVER HAS
BEEN RUNNING WITHIN A FOOT OF FLOOD STAGE...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
BEGIN FALLING SOON. THE SNOHOMISH...WHICH IS FORMED BY THE
CONFLUENCE OF THE SKYKOMISH AND SNOQUALMIE RIVERS...COULD HAVE SOME
FLOODING LATER TODAY.

THE RIVERS THAT FLOW OFF MOUNT RAINIER ARE RECEDING. THE FLOODING
HAS ENDED FOR THE CARBON AND NISQUALLY RIVERS...BUT FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE COWLITZ AND REACH OF THE PUYALLUP NEAR ORTING.

NEXT WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WE ARE
EXPECTING STORM TOTALS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES DURING THE
36 HOURS FROM 4 PM TODAY THROUGH 4 AM FRIDAY. THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH
CASCADES WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...BUT LOCALLY UP TO 5
INCHES OVER MOUNT RAINIER AND SKYKOMISH-SNOQUALMIE-TOLT-SNOHOMISH
BASIN IS POSSIBLE TOO. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE 5500 TO 7000 FT FOR
MOST OF THE EVENT...THEN FALL ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PRECIPITATION DECREASES.

A MAJOR FLOODING EPISODE IS UNLIKELY...BUT THE RAINFALL COULD
CERTAINLY RENEW FLOODING ON THE RIVERS THAT FLOODED OR ALMOST
FLOODED AND SOME OTHER RIVERS COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE AS WELL. A
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH INCLUDES ALL THE
COUNTIES WITH RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND
MASON COUNTY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FLOOD ON THE SKOKOMISH.

COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...SO RIVERS SHOULD
RECEDE AND THE FLOOD THREAT WILL END FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
MCDONNAL

&&

.AVIATION...THE WARM FRONT THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RAIN TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS MOVED INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
HOWEVER A WARM MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH
WIDESPREAD LOW-END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...INCLUDING SOME
VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM IN FOG AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

IMPROVEMENT TODAY WILL BE GRADUAL AND MAINLY LIMITED TO THE PUGET
SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. ANOTHER VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE COAST LATE TODAY...SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN WASHINGTON INTERIOR THIS EVENING. WHATEVER IMPROVEMENT
OCCURS TODAY IS LIKELY TO BE QUICKLY UNDONE AS A RESULT.

KSEA...SOUTH WIND MOSTLY 10-16 KT GUSTING 24 KT THROUGH TONIGHT...
EXCEPT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
ARRIVES.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY AND MOVE
ONSHORE TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE COMMON
MOST WATERS TODAY...THEN GALES FOR SOME WATERS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL BEHIND
THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG FRASER OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE OTHER WATERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
     WESTERN WASHINGTON.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR BAR FOR ROUGH BAR.
    .GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES STRAIT OF JUAN DE
     FUCA...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
     TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 261104
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOR MORE RAIN
AND WINDY CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THEN CROSSES THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. COOL DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WESTERN WASHINGTON IS IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTED NORTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...TEMPS
REMAINED MILD WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 50S THIS MORNING. THE WARM
FRONT IS OVER SOUTHERN B.C. NOW AND RAIN WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA TODAY...AND ALSO THE MOUNTAINS. RIVERS ARE
STILL RISING AND FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNING ARE IN EFFECT...SEE
HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INLAND. SE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MAY SEE WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS ALONG THE COAST
AND NORTH INTERIOR ZONES TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE MOUNTAINS...LEADING TO MORE FLOOD CONCERNS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH AT 6000 TO 7000 FT. EXPECT RAIN AT
TIMES IN THE LOWLANDS THROUGHOUT THANKSGIVING DAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS FROM NW TO SE THROUGH WESTERN WA ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS. THIS FRONT SHOULD
EXIT SOUTH FRI AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING GUSTY FRASER RIVER
OUTFLOW WINDS FRI AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS STRONG HIGH PRES OVER
INTERIOR B.C. SAGS SOUTH. THIS COOL AND DRY AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH
INTO WESTERN WA FRI NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL AND UNSTABLE AS
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ALSO CLIPS WESTERN WA DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE INTERIOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS
THIS TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOW TRYING TO FORM A
CONVERGENCE ZONE WHERE COOL NORTHERLY FRASER OUTFLOW MEETS THE MOIST
S/SW ONSHORE FLOW. COULD SEE RAIN/SNOW IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. BUT
THIS COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE IN THE INTERIOR. TOUGH TO PIN THIS DOWN
EXACTLY BUT DEFINITELY NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE IF THIS SCENARIO
PANS OUT. MODELS DO SHOW THE TROUGH EXITING SAT MORNING WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. 33

.LONG TERM...LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS OVER
WESTERN WA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRES OVER INTERIOR B.C. WILL MAINTAIN
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PASSES. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE DOWN
TO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS ARE ALSO BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXPECTED. MODELS WERE SHOWING
SOME MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH SUN NIGHT OR MON BUT THEY ARE NOW
BACKING OFF ON THIS IDEA. SO THE FORECAST IS NOW LOOKING DRIER OVER
THIS PERIOD AS WELL. THE FORECAST IS ALSO LOOKING DRIER THROUGH
MIDWEEK NOW AS THE EURO TRIES TO BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RAIN RATES HAVE DECREASED THROUGHOUT THE CASCADES
OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE WARM FRONT HAS CONTINUED MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.2 INCHES DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS WERE STILL COMMON FROM THE STILLAGUAMISH BASIN NORTHWARD...BUT
RATES THERE SHOULD DECREASE THIS MORNING. THE STILLAGUAMISH REACHED
FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FLOODING IS STILL A SHORT TERM
CONCERN FOR THE NOOKSACK RIVER.

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH RAIN OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF THE STILLAGUAMISH
BASIN -- GENERALLY 0.5 INCH OR LESS. THE THREE FORKS OF THE
SNOQUALMIE RIVER APPEAR TO HAVE CRESTED...SO THE SNOQUALMIE AT THE
FALLS SHOULD CREST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE CREST MOVING
DOWNSTREAM THROUGH CARNATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FLOODING ON THE
SNOQUALMIE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SKYKOMISH RIVER HAS
BEEN RUNNING WITHIN A FOOT OF FLOOD STAGE...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
BEGIN FALLING SOON. THE SNOHOMISH...WHICH IS FORMED BY THE
CONFLUENCE OF THE SKYKOMISH AND SNOQUALMIE RIVERS...COULD HAVE SOME
FLOODING LATER TODAY.

THE RIVERS THAT FLOW OFF MOUNT RAINIER ARE RECEDING. THE FLOODING
HAS ENDED FOR THE CARBON AND NISQUALLY RIVERS...BUT FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE COWLITZ AND REACH OF THE PUYALLUP NEAR ORTING.

NEXT WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WE ARE
EXPECTING STORM TOTALS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES DURING THE
36 HOURS FROM 4 PM TODAY THROUGH 4 AM FRIDAY. THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH
CASCADES WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...BUT LOCALLY UP TO 5
INCHES OVER MOUNT RAINIER AND SKYKOMISH-SNOQUALMIE-TOLT-SNOHOMISH
BASIN IS POSSIBLE TOO. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE 5500 TO 7000 FT FOR
MOST OF THE EVENT...THEN FALL ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PRECIPITATION DECREASES.

A MAJOR FLOODING EPISODE IS UNLIKELY...BUT THE RAINFALL COULD
CERTAINLY RENEW FLOODING ON THE RIVERS THAT FLOODED OR ALMOST
FLOODED AND SOME OTHER RIVERS COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE AS WELL. A
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH INCLUDES ALL THE
COUNTIES WITH RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND
MASON COUNTY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FLOOD ON THE SKOKOMISH.

COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...SO RIVERS SHOULD
RECEDE AND THE FLOOD THREAT WILL END FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
MCDONNAL

&&

.AVIATION...THE WARM FRONT THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RAIN TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS MOVED INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
HOWEVER A WARM MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH
WIDESPREAD LOW-END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...INCLUDING SOME
VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM IN FOG AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

IMPROVEMENT TODAY WILL BE GRADUAL AND MAINLY LIMITED TO THE PUGET
SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. ANOTHER VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE COAST LATE TODAY...SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN WASHINGTON INTERIOR THIS EVENING. WHATEVER IMPROVEMENT
OCCURS TODAY IS LIKELY TO BE QUICKLY UNDONE AS A RESULT.

KSEA...SOUTH WIND MOSTLY 10-16 KT GUSTING 24 KT THROUGH TONIGHT...
EXCEPT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
ARRIVES.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY AND MOVE
ONSHORE TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE COMMON
MOST WATERS TODAY...THEN GALES FOR SOME WATERS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL BEHIND
THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG FRASER OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE OTHER WATERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
     WESTERN WASHINGTON.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR BAR FOR ROUGH BAR.
    .GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES STRAIT OF JUAN DE
     FUCA...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
     TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
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000
FXUS66 KSEW 261104
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOR MORE RAIN
AND WINDY CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THEN CROSSES THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. COOL DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WESTERN WASHINGTON IS IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTED NORTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...TEMPS
REMAINED MILD WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 50S THIS MORNING. THE WARM
FRONT IS OVER SOUTHERN B.C. NOW AND RAIN WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA TODAY...AND ALSO THE MOUNTAINS. RIVERS ARE
STILL RISING AND FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNING ARE IN EFFECT...SEE
HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INLAND. SE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MAY SEE WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS ALONG THE COAST
AND NORTH INTERIOR ZONES TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE MOUNTAINS...LEADING TO MORE FLOOD CONCERNS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH AT 6000 TO 7000 FT. EXPECT RAIN AT
TIMES IN THE LOWLANDS THROUGHOUT THANKSGIVING DAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS FROM NW TO SE THROUGH WESTERN WA ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS. THIS FRONT SHOULD
EXIT SOUTH FRI AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING GUSTY FRASER RIVER
OUTFLOW WINDS FRI AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS STRONG HIGH PRES OVER
INTERIOR B.C. SAGS SOUTH. THIS COOL AND DRY AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH
INTO WESTERN WA FRI NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL AND UNSTABLE AS
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ALSO CLIPS WESTERN WA DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE INTERIOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS
THIS TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOW TRYING TO FORM A
CONVERGENCE ZONE WHERE COOL NORTHERLY FRASER OUTFLOW MEETS THE MOIST
S/SW ONSHORE FLOW. COULD SEE RAIN/SNOW IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. BUT
THIS COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE IN THE INTERIOR. TOUGH TO PIN THIS DOWN
EXACTLY BUT DEFINITELY NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE IF THIS SCENARIO
PANS OUT. MODELS DO SHOW THE TROUGH EXITING SAT MORNING WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. 33

.LONG TERM...LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS OVER
WESTERN WA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRES OVER INTERIOR B.C. WILL MAINTAIN
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PASSES. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE DOWN
TO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS ARE ALSO BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXPECTED. MODELS WERE SHOWING
SOME MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH SUN NIGHT OR MON BUT THEY ARE NOW
BACKING OFF ON THIS IDEA. SO THE FORECAST IS NOW LOOKING DRIER OVER
THIS PERIOD AS WELL. THE FORECAST IS ALSO LOOKING DRIER THROUGH
MIDWEEK NOW AS THE EURO TRIES TO BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RAIN RATES HAVE DECREASED THROUGHOUT THE CASCADES
OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE WARM FRONT HAS CONTINUED MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.2 INCHES DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS WERE STILL COMMON FROM THE STILLAGUAMISH BASIN NORTHWARD...BUT
RATES THERE SHOULD DECREASE THIS MORNING. THE STILLAGUAMISH REACHED
FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FLOODING IS STILL A SHORT TERM
CONCERN FOR THE NOOKSACK RIVER.

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH RAIN OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF THE STILLAGUAMISH
BASIN -- GENERALLY 0.5 INCH OR LESS. THE THREE FORKS OF THE
SNOQUALMIE RIVER APPEAR TO HAVE CRESTED...SO THE SNOQUALMIE AT THE
FALLS SHOULD CREST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE CREST MOVING
DOWNSTREAM THROUGH CARNATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FLOODING ON THE
SNOQUALMIE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SKYKOMISH RIVER HAS
BEEN RUNNING WITHIN A FOOT OF FLOOD STAGE...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
BEGIN FALLING SOON. THE SNOHOMISH...WHICH IS FORMED BY THE
CONFLUENCE OF THE SKYKOMISH AND SNOQUALMIE RIVERS...COULD HAVE SOME
FLOODING LATER TODAY.

THE RIVERS THAT FLOW OFF MOUNT RAINIER ARE RECEDING. THE FLOODING
HAS ENDED FOR THE CARBON AND NISQUALLY RIVERS...BUT FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE COWLITZ AND REACH OF THE PUYALLUP NEAR ORTING.

NEXT WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WE ARE
EXPECTING STORM TOTALS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES DURING THE
36 HOURS FROM 4 PM TODAY THROUGH 4 AM FRIDAY. THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH
CASCADES WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...BUT LOCALLY UP TO 5
INCHES OVER MOUNT RAINIER AND SKYKOMISH-SNOQUALMIE-TOLT-SNOHOMISH
BASIN IS POSSIBLE TOO. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE 5500 TO 7000 FT FOR
MOST OF THE EVENT...THEN FALL ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PRECIPITATION DECREASES.

A MAJOR FLOODING EPISODE IS UNLIKELY...BUT THE RAINFALL COULD
CERTAINLY RENEW FLOODING ON THE RIVERS THAT FLOODED OR ALMOST
FLOODED AND SOME OTHER RIVERS COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE AS WELL. A
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH INCLUDES ALL THE
COUNTIES WITH RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND
MASON COUNTY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FLOOD ON THE SKOKOMISH.

COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...SO RIVERS SHOULD
RECEDE AND THE FLOOD THREAT WILL END FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
MCDONNAL

&&

.AVIATION...THE WARM FRONT THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RAIN TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS MOVED INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
HOWEVER A WARM MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH
WIDESPREAD LOW-END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...INCLUDING SOME
VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM IN FOG AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

IMPROVEMENT TODAY WILL BE GRADUAL AND MAINLY LIMITED TO THE PUGET
SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. ANOTHER VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE COAST LATE TODAY...SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN WASHINGTON INTERIOR THIS EVENING. WHATEVER IMPROVEMENT
OCCURS TODAY IS LIKELY TO BE QUICKLY UNDONE AS A RESULT.

KSEA...SOUTH WIND MOSTLY 10-16 KT GUSTING 24 KT THROUGH TONIGHT...
EXCEPT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
ARRIVES.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY AND MOVE
ONSHORE TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE COMMON
MOST WATERS TODAY...THEN GALES FOR SOME WATERS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL BEHIND
THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG FRASER OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE OTHER WATERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
     WESTERN WASHINGTON.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR BAR FOR ROUGH BAR.
    .GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS...ENTRANCES STRAIT OF JUAN DE
     FUCA...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
     TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
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000
FXUS66 KOTX 261042
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
242 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected today and Thanksgiving. By
late this morning, snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today: The axis of the heaviest precipitation will continue to
migrate northward today as the jet stream is shunted Alberta and
Montana. Forecasting snow levels in the northern Cascades,
northeast Washington and far north Idaho over the last 24 hour has
been brutal. There has been a tremendously tight gradient between
snow levels of 6000 feet in places like Stevens Pass and the
valley floor in the Methow Valley. Fortunately this morning,
precipitation amounts will not be as heavy as they were yesterday
afternoon and evening. An additional 1 to 3 inches of snow
accumulation is expected this morning over the Pasayten Wilderness
to Sherman Pass to the mountains near Sandpoint. Another inch or
two of accumulation will also be possible early this morning over
Lookout Pass before snow transitions to rain shortly after
sunrise. Winter Weather Advisories will remain in effect through
10 AM for Lookout Pass and the northern portions of Stevens, Pend
Oreille, Bonner and Boundary counties.

The temperature forecast has been lowered along the East Slopes of
the Cascades, Waterville Plateau into the Moses Lake area. Thick
low clouds and fog will likely linger for a good portion of the
day. For the Palouse, West Plains and Ritzville areas, south winds
of 10 to 15 mph should develop by late morning providing mixing to
warm temperatures into the 40s and 50s.

Tonight into Thanksgiving: Snow levels will be at or above 6000
feet for Idaho and Washington tonight into Thanksgiving. Mountain
passes will experience periods of rain during this busy holiday
travel period, but the roads should be in relatively good shape.
Thanksgiving has the potential to be one of the warmest days of
the month. Despite mostly cloudy conditions, breezy southwest
winds will provide the mixing needed this time of year to push
temperatures into the 50s over much of the region. /GKoch

Friday through Sunday night...The region will start out under a
relatively warm and wet pattern Friday then transition to a much
colder but drier regime over the weekend. Westerly flow aloft will
continue to direct a moisture laden fetch across the region
Friday. The areas most favored for precipitation will be the
Cascade crest and the rising terrain north and east of the
Columbia Basin. The entire eastern half of the forecast area will
likely see a decent amount of precip as a surface low tracks south
from southeast British Columbia into central Idaho by Saturday.
Right now models are generally tracking it through the Idaho
panhandle but the precise track will determine how far west into
the basin the precip will extend. QPF could easily top an inch or
two for north Idaho as the low slowly sinks south. Snow levels
will start out quite high, ranging from 5k to 7k ft. Only the
highest peaks will see snow on Friday.

An arctic front will drop south across the forecast area Friday night
and Saturday, bringing in much drier and colder air, chasing
precip to the southeast zones by Saturday evening. Plunging snow
levels will allow accumulating snow for the southeast valleys with
possible winter highlight criteria being achieved, particularly
for the Camas Prairie on Saturday. Temperatures will plummet
Friday night with single digits for the typical cold spots in the
northern valleys. Most locations will see a 20 to 30 degree drop
overnight with only the southernmost valleys escaping freezing
temps. As the low drops south, the building arctic high over BC
will strengthen the surface pressure gradient between them. Winds
will increase down the north-south valleys and be funneled down
the Purcell trench and into the west Plains and basin. Expect wind
chill temperatures below zero in the Okanogan valley where the
strongest winds and very cold temps will prevail.

Cold conditions will continue Saturday night and Sunday with much
of the forecast area remaining dry. The exception will be the
southernmost counties where the surface front will stall. Surface
winds will diminish but remain northerly, reinforcing the cold air
in the valleys. Southwest flow ahead of the next Pacific trough
will result in strong warm air advection in the mid levels for
Sunday night into Monday. This layer of warm air overrunning the
resident cold air at the surface could bring mixed precipitation
to the Columbia Basin, Wenatchee Valley, L-C valley and possibly
as far north as the Spokane area. Temperature profiles for the
northern valleys appear to be cold enough to support all snow.
/Kelch

Monday through Wednesday: An active weather pattern is expected to
continue through this period. The GFS has been more consistent
with pushing warm moist air mass form the Southwest into the
region compared with the ECMWF which is depicting a dry Northwest
flow. This set up is expected to bring widespread precip to the
region. Snow for most locations in the Inland Northwest excluding
the rain for the Palouse and Camas Prairie areas through Tuesday
morning. A small ridge is expected to begin to build in the region
on Tuesday and bring a decrease in the precip Columbia Basin and
continues snow to the Cascades, Idaho Panhandle, and Canadian
Border regions. Temperatures are expected to range from upper 20s
for highs and low teens for lows. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A warm front will gradually lift into the region,
eventually overwhelming the colder air at the surface. Look for
periods of rain and snow toward the GEG to COE...PUW and in the
vcnty of EAT/LWS through the night, with the threat waning toward
12Z at most sites. The threat will linger longer near COE. In this
set-up look for IFR/LCL MVFR conditions, with stratus and fog. The
fog may be locally dense in spots, with the best confidence near
GEG at this time. Conditions are expected to improve somewhat
after 16-19Z, with cigs lifting slightly toward high IFR/MVFR
conditions around the eastern TAF sites and MVFR/VFR conditions
elsewhere. /J. Cote`




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        45  42  50  40  45  26 /  80  30  30  20  80  60
Coeur d`Alene  44  41  48  40  44  27 /  90  30  30  20  90  70
Pullman        54  44  53  42  48  31 /  30  30  30  20  80  80
Lewiston       56  47  58  45  52  37 /  10  10  10  20  70  80
Colville       38  38  46  38  42  20 /  90  60  50  40  80  10
Sandpoint      39  38  45  37  41  25 / 100  70  60  50  90  50
Kellogg        43  40  44  38  40  29 / 100  60  70  70  90  80
Moses Lake     46  44  55  40  50  25 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
Wenatchee      43  42  50  41  47  27 /  10  10  10  20  30  10
Omak           38  38  46  35  40  14 /  50  30  30  30  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for
     Northeast Mountains.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 261042
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
242 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected today and Thanksgiving. By
late this morning, snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today: The axis of the heaviest precipitation will continue to
migrate northward today as the jet stream is shunted Alberta and
Montana. Forecasting snow levels in the northern Cascades,
northeast Washington and far north Idaho over the last 24 hour has
been brutal. There has been a tremendously tight gradient between
snow levels of 6000 feet in places like Stevens Pass and the
valley floor in the Methow Valley. Fortunately this morning,
precipitation amounts will not be as heavy as they were yesterday
afternoon and evening. An additional 1 to 3 inches of snow
accumulation is expected this morning over the Pasayten Wilderness
to Sherman Pass to the mountains near Sandpoint. Another inch or
two of accumulation will also be possible early this morning over
Lookout Pass before snow transitions to rain shortly after
sunrise. Winter Weather Advisories will remain in effect through
10 AM for Lookout Pass and the northern portions of Stevens, Pend
Oreille, Bonner and Boundary counties.

The temperature forecast has been lowered along the East Slopes of
the Cascades, Waterville Plateau into the Moses Lake area. Thick
low clouds and fog will likely linger for a good portion of the
day. For the Palouse, West Plains and Ritzville areas, south winds
of 10 to 15 mph should develop by late morning providing mixing to
warm temperatures into the 40s and 50s.

Tonight into Thanksgiving: Snow levels will be at or above 6000
feet for Idaho and Washington tonight into Thanksgiving. Mountain
passes will experience periods of rain during this busy holiday
travel period, but the roads should be in relatively good shape.
Thanksgiving has the potential to be one of the warmest days of
the month. Despite mostly cloudy conditions, breezy southwest
winds will provide the mixing needed this time of year to push
temperatures into the 50s over much of the region. /GKoch

Friday through Sunday night...The region will start out under a
relatively warm and wet pattern Friday then transition to a much
colder but drier regime over the weekend. Westerly flow aloft will
continue to direct a moisture laden fetch across the region
Friday. The areas most favored for precipitation will be the
Cascade crest and the rising terrain north and east of the
Columbia Basin. The entire eastern half of the forecast area will
likely see a decent amount of precip as a surface low tracks south
from southeast British Columbia into central Idaho by Saturday.
Right now models are generally tracking it through the Idaho
panhandle but the precise track will determine how far west into
the basin the precip will extend. QPF could easily top an inch or
two for north Idaho as the low slowly sinks south. Snow levels
will start out quite high, ranging from 5k to 7k ft. Only the
highest peaks will see snow on Friday.

An arctic front will drop south across the forecast area Friday night
and Saturday, bringing in much drier and colder air, chasing
precip to the southeast zones by Saturday evening. Plunging snow
levels will allow accumulating snow for the southeast valleys with
possible winter highlight criteria being achieved, particularly
for the Camas Prairie on Saturday. Temperatures will plummet
Friday night with single digits for the typical cold spots in the
northern valleys. Most locations will see a 20 to 30 degree drop
overnight with only the southernmost valleys escaping freezing
temps. As the low drops south, the building arctic high over BC
will strengthen the surface pressure gradient between them. Winds
will increase down the north-south valleys and be funneled down
the Purcell trench and into the west Plains and basin. Expect wind
chill temperatures below zero in the Okanogan valley where the
strongest winds and very cold temps will prevail.

Cold conditions will continue Saturday night and Sunday with much
of the forecast area remaining dry. The exception will be the
southernmost counties where the surface front will stall. Surface
winds will diminish but remain northerly, reinforcing the cold air
in the valleys. Southwest flow ahead of the next Pacific trough
will result in strong warm air advection in the mid levels for
Sunday night into Monday. This layer of warm air overrunning the
resident cold air at the surface could bring mixed precipitation
to the Columbia Basin, Wenatchee Valley, L-C valley and possibly
as far north as the Spokane area. Temperature profiles for the
northern valleys appear to be cold enough to support all snow.
/Kelch

Monday through Wednesday: An active weather pattern is expected to
continue through this period. The GFS has been more consistent
with pushing warm moist air mass form the Southwest into the
region compared with the ECMWF which is depicting a dry Northwest
flow. This set up is expected to bring widespread precip to the
region. Snow for most locations in the Inland Northwest excluding
the rain for the Palouse and Camas Prairie areas through Tuesday
morning. A small ridge is expected to begin to build in the region
on Tuesday and bring a decrease in the precip Columbia Basin and
continues snow to the Cascades, Idaho Panhandle, and Canadian
Border regions. Temperatures are expected to range from upper 20s
for highs and low teens for lows. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A warm front will gradually lift into the region,
eventually overwhelming the colder air at the surface. Look for
periods of rain and snow toward the GEG to COE...PUW and in the
vcnty of EAT/LWS through the night, with the threat waning toward
12Z at most sites. The threat will linger longer near COE. In this
set-up look for IFR/LCL MVFR conditions, with stratus and fog. The
fog may be locally dense in spots, with the best confidence near
GEG at this time. Conditions are expected to improve somewhat
after 16-19Z, with cigs lifting slightly toward high IFR/MVFR
conditions around the eastern TAF sites and MVFR/VFR conditions
elsewhere. /J. Cote`




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        45  42  50  40  45  26 /  80  30  30  20  80  60
Coeur d`Alene  44  41  48  40  44  27 /  90  30  30  20  90  70
Pullman        54  44  53  42  48  31 /  30  30  30  20  80  80
Lewiston       56  47  58  45  52  37 /  10  10  10  20  70  80
Colville       38  38  46  38  42  20 /  90  60  50  40  80  10
Sandpoint      39  38  45  37  41  25 / 100  70  60  50  90  50
Kellogg        43  40  44  38  40  29 / 100  60  70  70  90  80
Moses Lake     46  44  55  40  50  25 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
Wenatchee      43  42  50  41  47  27 /  10  10  10  20  30  10
Omak           38  38  46  35  40  14 /  50  30  30  30  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for
     Northeast Mountains.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 261042
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
242 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected today and Thanksgiving. By
late this morning, snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today: The axis of the heaviest precipitation will continue to
migrate northward today as the jet stream is shunted Alberta and
Montana. Forecasting snow levels in the northern Cascades,
northeast Washington and far north Idaho over the last 24 hour has
been brutal. There has been a tremendously tight gradient between
snow levels of 6000 feet in places like Stevens Pass and the
valley floor in the Methow Valley. Fortunately this morning,
precipitation amounts will not be as heavy as they were yesterday
afternoon and evening. An additional 1 to 3 inches of snow
accumulation is expected this morning over the Pasayten Wilderness
to Sherman Pass to the mountains near Sandpoint. Another inch or
two of accumulation will also be possible early this morning over
Lookout Pass before snow transitions to rain shortly after
sunrise. Winter Weather Advisories will remain in effect through
10 AM for Lookout Pass and the northern portions of Stevens, Pend
Oreille, Bonner and Boundary counties.

The temperature forecast has been lowered along the East Slopes of
the Cascades, Waterville Plateau into the Moses Lake area. Thick
low clouds and fog will likely linger for a good portion of the
day. For the Palouse, West Plains and Ritzville areas, south winds
of 10 to 15 mph should develop by late morning providing mixing to
warm temperatures into the 40s and 50s.

Tonight into Thanksgiving: Snow levels will be at or above 6000
feet for Idaho and Washington tonight into Thanksgiving. Mountain
passes will experience periods of rain during this busy holiday
travel period, but the roads should be in relatively good shape.
Thanksgiving has the potential to be one of the warmest days of
the month. Despite mostly cloudy conditions, breezy southwest
winds will provide the mixing needed this time of year to push
temperatures into the 50s over much of the region. /GKoch

Friday through Sunday night...The region will start out under a
relatively warm and wet pattern Friday then transition to a much
colder but drier regime over the weekend. Westerly flow aloft will
continue to direct a moisture laden fetch across the region
Friday. The areas most favored for precipitation will be the
Cascade crest and the rising terrain north and east of the
Columbia Basin. The entire eastern half of the forecast area will
likely see a decent amount of precip as a surface low tracks south
from southeast British Columbia into central Idaho by Saturday.
Right now models are generally tracking it through the Idaho
panhandle but the precise track will determine how far west into
the basin the precip will extend. QPF could easily top an inch or
two for north Idaho as the low slowly sinks south. Snow levels
will start out quite high, ranging from 5k to 7k ft. Only the
highest peaks will see snow on Friday.

An arctic front will drop south across the forecast area Friday night
and Saturday, bringing in much drier and colder air, chasing
precip to the southeast zones by Saturday evening. Plunging snow
levels will allow accumulating snow for the southeast valleys with
possible winter highlight criteria being achieved, particularly
for the Camas Prairie on Saturday. Temperatures will plummet
Friday night with single digits for the typical cold spots in the
northern valleys. Most locations will see a 20 to 30 degree drop
overnight with only the southernmost valleys escaping freezing
temps. As the low drops south, the building arctic high over BC
will strengthen the surface pressure gradient between them. Winds
will increase down the north-south valleys and be funneled down
the Purcell trench and into the west Plains and basin. Expect wind
chill temperatures below zero in the Okanogan valley where the
strongest winds and very cold temps will prevail.

Cold conditions will continue Saturday night and Sunday with much
of the forecast area remaining dry. The exception will be the
southernmost counties where the surface front will stall. Surface
winds will diminish but remain northerly, reinforcing the cold air
in the valleys. Southwest flow ahead of the next Pacific trough
will result in strong warm air advection in the mid levels for
Sunday night into Monday. This layer of warm air overrunning the
resident cold air at the surface could bring mixed precipitation
to the Columbia Basin, Wenatchee Valley, L-C valley and possibly
as far north as the Spokane area. Temperature profiles for the
northern valleys appear to be cold enough to support all snow.
/Kelch

Monday through Wednesday: An active weather pattern is expected to
continue through this period. The GFS has been more consistent
with pushing warm moist air mass form the Southwest into the
region compared with the ECMWF which is depicting a dry Northwest
flow. This set up is expected to bring widespread precip to the
region. Snow for most locations in the Inland Northwest excluding
the rain for the Palouse and Camas Prairie areas through Tuesday
morning. A small ridge is expected to begin to build in the region
on Tuesday and bring a decrease in the precip Columbia Basin and
continues snow to the Cascades, Idaho Panhandle, and Canadian
Border regions. Temperatures are expected to range from upper 20s
for highs and low teens for lows. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A warm front will gradually lift into the region,
eventually overwhelming the colder air at the surface. Look for
periods of rain and snow toward the GEG to COE...PUW and in the
vcnty of EAT/LWS through the night, with the threat waning toward
12Z at most sites. The threat will linger longer near COE. In this
set-up look for IFR/LCL MVFR conditions, with stratus and fog. The
fog may be locally dense in spots, with the best confidence near
GEG at this time. Conditions are expected to improve somewhat
after 16-19Z, with cigs lifting slightly toward high IFR/MVFR
conditions around the eastern TAF sites and MVFR/VFR conditions
elsewhere. /J. Cote`




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        45  42  50  40  45  26 /  80  30  30  20  80  60
Coeur d`Alene  44  41  48  40  44  27 /  90  30  30  20  90  70
Pullman        54  44  53  42  48  31 /  30  30  30  20  80  80
Lewiston       56  47  58  45  52  37 /  10  10  10  20  70  80
Colville       38  38  46  38  42  20 /  90  60  50  40  80  10
Sandpoint      39  38  45  37  41  25 / 100  70  60  50  90  50
Kellogg        43  40  44  38  40  29 / 100  60  70  70  90  80
Moses Lake     46  44  55  40  50  25 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
Wenatchee      43  42  50  41  47  27 /  10  10  10  20  30  10
Omak           38  38  46  35  40  14 /  50  30  30  30  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for
     Northeast Mountains.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 261042
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
242 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather is expected today and Thanksgiving. By
late this morning, snow levels should rise above the mountain
passes. Motorists with plans to travel over the mountain passes
should experience good conditions this afternoon through Friday
afternoon. The arrival of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
will bring winter driving conditions to the mountain passes and
much cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today: The axis of the heaviest precipitation will continue to
migrate northward today as the jet stream is shunted Alberta and
Montana. Forecasting snow levels in the northern Cascades,
northeast Washington and far north Idaho over the last 24 hour has
been brutal. There has been a tremendously tight gradient between
snow levels of 6000 feet in places like Stevens Pass and the
valley floor in the Methow Valley. Fortunately this morning,
precipitation amounts will not be as heavy as they were yesterday
afternoon and evening. An additional 1 to 3 inches of snow
accumulation is expected this morning over the Pasayten Wilderness
to Sherman Pass to the mountains near Sandpoint. Another inch or
two of accumulation will also be possible early this morning over
Lookout Pass before snow transitions to rain shortly after
sunrise. Winter Weather Advisories will remain in effect through
10 AM for Lookout Pass and the northern portions of Stevens, Pend
Oreille, Bonner and Boundary counties.

The temperature forecast has been lowered along the East Slopes of
the Cascades, Waterville Plateau into the Moses Lake area. Thick
low clouds and fog will likely linger for a good portion of the
day. For the Palouse, West Plains and Ritzville areas, south winds
of 10 to 15 mph should develop by late morning providing mixing to
warm temperatures into the 40s and 50s.

Tonight into Thanksgiving: Snow levels will be at or above 6000
feet for Idaho and Washington tonight into Thanksgiving. Mountain
passes will experience periods of rain during this busy holiday
travel period, but the roads should be in relatively good shape.
Thanksgiving has the potential to be one of the warmest days of
the month. Despite mostly cloudy conditions, breezy southwest
winds will provide the mixing needed this time of year to push
temperatures into the 50s over much of the region. /GKoch

Friday through Sunday night...The region will start out under a
relatively warm and wet pattern Friday then transition to a much
colder but drier regime over the weekend. Westerly flow aloft will
continue to direct a moisture laden fetch across the region
Friday. The areas most favored for precipitation will be the
Cascade crest and the rising terrain north and east of the
Columbia Basin. The entire eastern half of the forecast area will
likely see a decent amount of precip as a surface low tracks south
from southeast British Columbia into central Idaho by Saturday.
Right now models are generally tracking it through the Idaho
panhandle but the precise track will determine how far west into
the basin the precip will extend. QPF could easily top an inch or
two for north Idaho as the low slowly sinks south. Snow levels
will start out quite high, ranging from 5k to 7k ft. Only the
highest peaks will see snow on Friday.

An arctic front will drop south across the forecast area Friday night
and Saturday, bringing in much drier and colder air, chasing
precip to the southeast zones by Saturday evening. Plunging snow
levels will allow accumulating snow for the southeast valleys with
possible winter highlight criteria being achieved, particularly
for the Camas Prairie on Saturday. Temperatures will plummet
Friday night with single digits for the typical cold spots in the
northern valleys. Most locations will see a 20 to 30 degree drop
overnight with only the southernmost valleys escaping freezing
temps. As the low drops south, the building arctic high over BC
will strengthen the surface pressure gradient between them. Winds
will increase down the north-south valleys and be funneled down
the Purcell trench and into the west Plains and basin. Expect wind
chill temperatures below zero in the Okanogan valley where the
strongest winds and very cold temps will prevail.

Cold conditions will continue Saturday night and Sunday with much
of the forecast area remaining dry. The exception will be the
southernmost counties where the surface front will stall. Surface
winds will diminish but remain northerly, reinforcing the cold air
in the valleys. Southwest flow ahead of the next Pacific trough
will result in strong warm air advection in the mid levels for
Sunday night into Monday. This layer of warm air overrunning the
resident cold air at the surface could bring mixed precipitation
to the Columbia Basin, Wenatchee Valley, L-C valley and possibly
as far north as the Spokane area. Temperature profiles for the
northern valleys appear to be cold enough to support all snow.
/Kelch

Monday through Wednesday: An active weather pattern is expected to
continue through this period. The GFS has been more consistent
with pushing warm moist air mass form the Southwest into the
region compared with the ECMWF which is depicting a dry Northwest
flow. This set up is expected to bring widespread precip to the
region. Snow for most locations in the Inland Northwest excluding
the rain for the Palouse and Camas Prairie areas through Tuesday
morning. A small ridge is expected to begin to build in the region
on Tuesday and bring a decrease in the precip Columbia Basin and
continues snow to the Cascades, Idaho Panhandle, and Canadian
Border regions. Temperatures are expected to range from upper 20s
for highs and low teens for lows. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A warm front will gradually lift into the region,
eventually overwhelming the colder air at the surface. Look for
periods of rain and snow toward the GEG to COE...PUW and in the
vcnty of EAT/LWS through the night, with the threat waning toward
12Z at most sites. The threat will linger longer near COE. In this
set-up look for IFR/LCL MVFR conditions, with stratus and fog. The
fog may be locally dense in spots, with the best confidence near
GEG at this time. Conditions are expected to improve somewhat
after 16-19Z, with cigs lifting slightly toward high IFR/MVFR
conditions around the eastern TAF sites and MVFR/VFR conditions
elsewhere. /J. Cote`




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        45  42  50  40  45  26 /  80  30  30  20  80  60
Coeur d`Alene  44  41  48  40  44  27 /  90  30  30  20  90  70
Pullman        54  44  53  42  48  31 /  30  30  30  20  80  80
Lewiston       56  47  58  45  52  37 /  10  10  10  20  70  80
Colville       38  38  46  38  42  20 /  90  60  50  40  80  10
Sandpoint      39  38  45  37  41  25 / 100  70  60  50  90  50
Kellogg        43  40  44  38  40  29 / 100  60  70  70  90  80
Moses Lake     46  44  55  40  50  25 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
Wenatchee      43  42  50  41  47  27 /  10  10  10  20  30  10
Omak           38  38  46  35  40  14 /  50  30  30  30  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for
     Northeast Mountains.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 260601
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1000 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and wet conditions will continue through Thursday. Snow
levels will be on the rise tonight...but expect some
accumulations for the areas near the Canadian border through
morning. Thanksgiving will be breezy...wet and continued warm.
Then a colder weather pattern is expected for the holiday weekend
with the mountains receiving several rounds of snow. Snow levels
will fall to valley floors by the weekend.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: Very messy and tricky weather pattern. The colder
air trapped near the lee of the Cascades, especially the Methow
and Okanogan Valley, has been harder to get out of those crevices
than coins that fell into the couch cushions. So I have been
playing catch up. Earlier this evening reports of snow in this
region have been in the 4 to 8 inch range, with local amounts near
a foot in place such as Mazama deep in the Methow valley closer to
the Cascades and near Molson, around 4000 feet. Recent reports and
a look at area webcams, including around Oroville going toward the
Canadian border show some rather sloppy/white conditions. SSome
snow has also been reported and seen on cameras about the
Waterville Plateau, near and north of the city of Waterville.

I expanded the areal coverage of the Winter Weather Advisory which
was in place here to include more of the Methow and Okanogan
Valley. The snow should continue to impact the region through the
next several hours, then begin to dissipate in intensity and
coverage overnight into Wednesday morning. So continue to look
for some snowfall through about midnight to 2 am, before
dissipating around the 2-4 AM hour.

Precipitation elsewhere has been in and out, but most of the
newest guidance keeps some moderate chance going across east-
central and northeast WA and north ID through at least the early
overnight, before the focus starts to retreat north and east into
the Panhandle by Wednesday morning. I decreased overall PoPs
across the Basin through the Spokane/C`dA area southward. However
they still remain in the lower likely category in that
Spokane/C`dA area and higher Palouse.

Overnight lows will be tricky. Most places may have already
reached their lows for the night, with many models suggesting
temperatures will remain steady or slowly rise overnight
especially away from the northern lee of the Cascades and
sheltered northern valleys. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A warm front will gradually lift into the region,
eventually overwhelming the colder air at the surface. Lookf or
periods of rain and snow toward the GEG to COE...PUW and in the
vcnty of EAT/LWS through the night, with the threat waning toward
12Z at most sites. The threat will linger longer near COE. In this
set-up look for IFR/LCL MVFR conditions, with stratus and fog. The
fog may be locally dense in spots, with the best confidence near
GEG at this time. Conditions are expected to improve somewhat
after 16-19Z, with cigs lifting slightly toward high IFR/MVFR
conditions around the eastern TAF sites and MVFR/VFR conditions
elsewhere.  /J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  48  42  49  40  45 /  70  40  30  20  30  70
Coeur d`Alene  35  48  41  47  40  44 /  70  80  50  50  30  80
Pullman        40  54  44  52  42  48 /  70  20  20  10  30  80
Lewiston       44  59  47  55  45  52 /  60  10  10  10  30  70
Colville       36  45  39  45  38  42 /  80  80  60  40  40  70
Sandpoint      33  44  38  43  37  41 /  70  80  70  60  60  80
Kellogg        34  43  40  42  38  39 / 100  90  60  60  60  90
Moses Lake     38  54  44  54  40  51 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Wenatchee      40  51  42  50  41  46 /  40  10  20  10  40  30
Omak           32  44  38  44  35  41 /  80  40  30  20  50  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northern
     Panhandle.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northeast
     Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 260601
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1000 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and wet conditions will continue through Thursday. Snow
levels will be on the rise tonight...but expect some
accumulations for the areas near the Canadian border through
morning. Thanksgiving will be breezy...wet and continued warm.
Then a colder weather pattern is expected for the holiday weekend
with the mountains receiving several rounds of snow. Snow levels
will fall to valley floors by the weekend.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: Very messy and tricky weather pattern. The colder
air trapped near the lee of the Cascades, especially the Methow
and Okanogan Valley, has been harder to get out of those crevices
than coins that fell into the couch cushions. So I have been
playing catch up. Earlier this evening reports of snow in this
region have been in the 4 to 8 inch range, with local amounts near
a foot in place such as Mazama deep in the Methow valley closer to
the Cascades and near Molson, around 4000 feet. Recent reports and
a look at area webcams, including around Oroville going toward the
Canadian border show some rather sloppy/white conditions. SSome
snow has also been reported and seen on cameras about the
Waterville Plateau, near and north of the city of Waterville.

I expanded the areal coverage of the Winter Weather Advisory which
was in place here to include more of the Methow and Okanogan
Valley. The snow should continue to impact the region through the
next several hours, then begin to dissipate in intensity and
coverage overnight into Wednesday morning. So continue to look
for some snowfall through about midnight to 2 am, before
dissipating around the 2-4 AM hour.

Precipitation elsewhere has been in and out, but most of the
newest guidance keeps some moderate chance going across east-
central and northeast WA and north ID through at least the early
overnight, before the focus starts to retreat north and east into
the Panhandle by Wednesday morning. I decreased overall PoPs
across the Basin through the Spokane/C`dA area southward. However
they still remain in the lower likely category in that
Spokane/C`dA area and higher Palouse.

Overnight lows will be tricky. Most places may have already
reached their lows for the night, with many models suggesting
temperatures will remain steady or slowly rise overnight
especially away from the northern lee of the Cascades and
sheltered northern valleys. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A warm front will gradually lift into the region,
eventually overwhelming the colder air at the surface. Lookf or
periods of rain and snow toward the GEG to COE...PUW and in the
vcnty of EAT/LWS through the night, with the threat waning toward
12Z at most sites. The threat will linger longer near COE. In this
set-up look for IFR/LCL MVFR conditions, with stratus and fog. The
fog may be locally dense in spots, with the best confidence near
GEG at this time. Conditions are expected to improve somewhat
after 16-19Z, with cigs lifting slightly toward high IFR/MVFR
conditions around the eastern TAF sites and MVFR/VFR conditions
elsewhere.  /J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  48  42  49  40  45 /  70  40  30  20  30  70
Coeur d`Alene  35  48  41  47  40  44 /  70  80  50  50  30  80
Pullman        40  54  44  52  42  48 /  70  20  20  10  30  80
Lewiston       44  59  47  55  45  52 /  60  10  10  10  30  70
Colville       36  45  39  45  38  42 /  80  80  60  40  40  70
Sandpoint      33  44  38  43  37  41 /  70  80  70  60  60  80
Kellogg        34  43  40  42  38  39 / 100  90  60  60  60  90
Moses Lake     38  54  44  54  40  51 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Wenatchee      40  51  42  50  41  46 /  40  10  20  10  40  30
Omak           32  44  38  44  35  41 /  80  40  30  20  50  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northern
     Panhandle.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northeast
     Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 260601
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1000 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and wet conditions will continue through Thursday. Snow
levels will be on the rise tonight...but expect some
accumulations for the areas near the Canadian border through
morning. Thanksgiving will be breezy...wet and continued warm.
Then a colder weather pattern is expected for the holiday weekend
with the mountains receiving several rounds of snow. Snow levels
will fall to valley floors by the weekend.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: Very messy and tricky weather pattern. The colder
air trapped near the lee of the Cascades, especially the Methow
and Okanogan Valley, has been harder to get out of those crevices
than coins that fell into the couch cushions. So I have been
playing catch up. Earlier this evening reports of snow in this
region have been in the 4 to 8 inch range, with local amounts near
a foot in place such as Mazama deep in the Methow valley closer to
the Cascades and near Molson, around 4000 feet. Recent reports and
a look at area webcams, including around Oroville going toward the
Canadian border show some rather sloppy/white conditions. SSome
snow has also been reported and seen on cameras about the
Waterville Plateau, near and north of the city of Waterville.

I expanded the areal coverage of the Winter Weather Advisory which
was in place here to include more of the Methow and Okanogan
Valley. The snow should continue to impact the region through the
next several hours, then begin to dissipate in intensity and
coverage overnight into Wednesday morning. So continue to look
for some snowfall through about midnight to 2 am, before
dissipating around the 2-4 AM hour.

Precipitation elsewhere has been in and out, but most of the
newest guidance keeps some moderate chance going across east-
central and northeast WA and north ID through at least the early
overnight, before the focus starts to retreat north and east into
the Panhandle by Wednesday morning. I decreased overall PoPs
across the Basin through the Spokane/C`dA area southward. However
they still remain in the lower likely category in that
Spokane/C`dA area and higher Palouse.

Overnight lows will be tricky. Most places may have already
reached their lows for the night, with many models suggesting
temperatures will remain steady or slowly rise overnight
especially away from the northern lee of the Cascades and
sheltered northern valleys. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A warm front will gradually lift into the region,
eventually overwhelming the colder air at the surface. Lookf or
periods of rain and snow toward the GEG to COE...PUW and in the
vcnty of EAT/LWS through the night, with the threat waning toward
12Z at most sites. The threat will linger longer near COE. In this
set-up look for IFR/LCL MVFR conditions, with stratus and fog. The
fog may be locally dense in spots, with the best confidence near
GEG at this time. Conditions are expected to improve somewhat
after 16-19Z, with cigs lifting slightly toward high IFR/MVFR
conditions around the eastern TAF sites and MVFR/VFR conditions
elsewhere.  /J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  48  42  49  40  45 /  70  40  30  20  30  70
Coeur d`Alene  35  48  41  47  40  44 /  70  80  50  50  30  80
Pullman        40  54  44  52  42  48 /  70  20  20  10  30  80
Lewiston       44  59  47  55  45  52 /  60  10  10  10  30  70
Colville       36  45  39  45  38  42 /  80  80  60  40  40  70
Sandpoint      33  44  38  43  37  41 /  70  80  70  60  60  80
Kellogg        34  43  40  42  38  39 / 100  90  60  60  60  90
Moses Lake     38  54  44  54  40  51 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Wenatchee      40  51  42  50  41  46 /  40  10  20  10  40  30
Omak           32  44  38  44  35  41 /  80  40  30  20  50  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northern
     Panhandle.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northeast
     Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 260601
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1000 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and wet conditions will continue through Thursday. Snow
levels will be on the rise tonight...but expect some
accumulations for the areas near the Canadian border through
morning. Thanksgiving will be breezy...wet and continued warm.
Then a colder weather pattern is expected for the holiday weekend
with the mountains receiving several rounds of snow. Snow levels
will fall to valley floors by the weekend.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: Very messy and tricky weather pattern. The colder
air trapped near the lee of the Cascades, especially the Methow
and Okanogan Valley, has been harder to get out of those crevices
than coins that fell into the couch cushions. So I have been
playing catch up. Earlier this evening reports of snow in this
region have been in the 4 to 8 inch range, with local amounts near
a foot in place such as Mazama deep in the Methow valley closer to
the Cascades and near Molson, around 4000 feet. Recent reports and
a look at area webcams, including around Oroville going toward the
Canadian border show some rather sloppy/white conditions. SSome
snow has also been reported and seen on cameras about the
Waterville Plateau, near and north of the city of Waterville.

I expanded the areal coverage of the Winter Weather Advisory which
was in place here to include more of the Methow and Okanogan
Valley. The snow should continue to impact the region through the
next several hours, then begin to dissipate in intensity and
coverage overnight into Wednesday morning. So continue to look
for some snowfall through about midnight to 2 am, before
dissipating around the 2-4 AM hour.

Precipitation elsewhere has been in and out, but most of the
newest guidance keeps some moderate chance going across east-
central and northeast WA and north ID through at least the early
overnight, before the focus starts to retreat north and east into
the Panhandle by Wednesday morning. I decreased overall PoPs
across the Basin through the Spokane/C`dA area southward. However
they still remain in the lower likely category in that
Spokane/C`dA area and higher Palouse.

Overnight lows will be tricky. Most places may have already
reached their lows for the night, with many models suggesting
temperatures will remain steady or slowly rise overnight
especially away from the northern lee of the Cascades and
sheltered northern valleys. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A warm front will gradually lift into the region,
eventually overwhelming the colder air at the surface. Lookf or
periods of rain and snow toward the GEG to COE...PUW and in the
vcnty of EAT/LWS through the night, with the threat waning toward
12Z at most sites. The threat will linger longer near COE. In this
set-up look for IFR/LCL MVFR conditions, with stratus and fog. The
fog may be locally dense in spots, with the best confidence near
GEG at this time. Conditions are expected to improve somewhat
after 16-19Z, with cigs lifting slightly toward high IFR/MVFR
conditions around the eastern TAF sites and MVFR/VFR conditions
elsewhere.  /J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  48  42  49  40  45 /  70  40  30  20  30  70
Coeur d`Alene  35  48  41  47  40  44 /  70  80  50  50  30  80
Pullman        40  54  44  52  42  48 /  70  20  20  10  30  80
Lewiston       44  59  47  55  45  52 /  60  10  10  10  30  70
Colville       36  45  39  45  38  42 /  80  80  60  40  40  70
Sandpoint      33  44  38  43  37  41 /  70  80  70  60  60  80
Kellogg        34  43  40  42  38  39 / 100  90  60  60  60  90
Moses Lake     38  54  44  54  40  51 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Wenatchee      40  51  42  50  41  46 /  40  10  20  10  40  30
Omak           32  44  38  44  35  41 /  80  40  30  20  50  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northern
     Panhandle.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northeast
     Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 260530
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN AT TIMES OVER THE NORTH PART AND
RAIN LIKELY ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. RAIN WILL DIMINISH WITH JUST A CHANCE
OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON
THANKSGIVING DAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
THEN CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COOL DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER
WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS MAY
BRING A LITTLE RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF PUGET SOUND AT
8 PM WITH SLY WINDS INCREASING S OF THE FRONT AND REMAINING MAINLY
LIGHT FROM NEAR THE E ENTRANCE TO THE N INTERIOR. ALKI WAS REPORTING
WIND GUSTS TO 43 KT THIS PAST HOUR AND OTHER OBS SITES AROUND THE
SOUND ARE GUSTY AS WELL. RAIN WILL PERSIST TO THE N OF THE FRONT SO
ANOTHER INCH OR LOCALLY 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE N
CASCADES. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT N OF THE WA/B.C. BORDER BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE BULK OF MOISTURE TO THE N OF WA. THERE
WILL BE SOME RAIN AT TIMES IN THE OLYMPICS AND AREAS N OF PUGET
SOUND AND THE CASCADES BUT AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK HYDROLOGICALLY
SIGNIFICANT.

RAIN WILL PICK UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WRN WA. THE STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR
HEAVIER RAIN ALONG S/SW FACING SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS AND N
CASCADES. 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL RENEWING THE FLOOD THREAT
FOR THE SKOKOMISH BASIN AND ALSO PRONE RIVERS IN THE N CASCADES.
SEE THE HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS. IT WILL ALSO RAIN ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS BUT THE STRONG SW FLOW WILL PROBABLY SHADOW PORTIONS OF
PUGET SOUND WITH LESS RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGING UP OVER
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS IS AHEAD OF A COLDER AIR MASS OVER B.C.
TRYING TO PUSH SWD. THE WLY FLOW WHICH STARTS OFF STRONG DURING THE
MORNING WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LIMIT
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE CASCADES. WHILE AN INCH OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE IMPACT ON
RIVERS WILL PROBABLY BE MINIMAL. WILL NEED TO LOOK OVER ALL THE 00Z
RUNS BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO QPF.

COLDER AIR WILL BE DAMMING UP ALONG THE CANADIAN ROCKIES LATER
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FRASER OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO START TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. SOME
MODELS SHOW RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SITUATION CLOSELY
AS THIS SET UP CAN SOMETIMES RESULT IN LOCALIZED LOWLAND SNOW. WILL
REVIEW THIS POTENTIAL FOR THE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE.

.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BASED ON AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WERE CLEARED OUT AND
THE MENTION OF RAIN DROPPED...EXCEPT FOR THE S PART LATE SUNDAY.
WITH COOL DRY N FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND COLD DRY NE FLOW FROM
THE FRASER VALLEY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...TEMPERATURES
COOL...AND N-NE WINDS BREEZY. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS STILL RATHER LOW...AND THE 18Z
GFS HAS JUST REVERSED COURSE AND BRINGS RAIN UP FROM OREGON ON
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT SO REMAINS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION. THE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE AND RAIN NORTHWARD FROM OREGON
SUNDAY NIGHT.  WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER W WA THERE MAY BE A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES AS
THE PRECIP MOVES NORTH. SO FAR THIS IS NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE
FORECASTS AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-EVALUATED ONCE MODEL CONSISTENCY
AND AGREEMENT IMPROVES. KAM

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAIN IN THE CASCADES EXTENDED FROM
THE SNOQUALMIE BASIN TO THE NORTH CASCADES THIS EVENING...AND IT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FOR THE EVENT
SO FAR HAS OCCURRED IN THE MOUNT RAINIER AREA...WHERE LOCALLY UP TO
7 INCHES HAS FALLEN SINCE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE COWLITZ... NISQUALLY
AND CARBON RIVERS ALL FLOODED. THAT AREA WILL ONLY RECEIVE ANOTHER
INCH OR SO OF RAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE NISQUALLY AND CARBON
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BELOW FLOOD STAGE...AND THE COWLITZ AT RANDLE
WILL CREST LATE THIS EVENING.

UP TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE BASINS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTH CASCADES...BUT SO FAR ONLY THE SNOQUALMIE RIVER IS FLOODING.
MORE HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL IN THIS AREA TONIGHT AS THE BAROCLINIC
BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD...WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES LIKELY AS THE
SNOW LEVEL REMAINS 7000 TO 8000 FT. SO OTHER RIVERS COULD STILL
FLOOD...AND IN FACT THE UPPER REACHES OF THE SNOQUALMIE AND
SKYKOMISH HAVE STARTED RISING AGAIN. IN ADDITION THE ELWHA
RIVER...FLOWING OFF THE NORTH SIDE OF THE OLYMPICS...IS RISING MORE
QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED AND IT WILL NEED WATCHING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RENEWING THE POSSIBILITY OF
FLOODING ON CASCADES RIVERS AND ALSO PERHAPS DRIVING THE SKOKOMISH
RIVER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
RAIN...WITH THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH CASCADES RECEIVING THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE 5500 TO 7000 FT.   MCDONNAL

&&

.AVIATION...A WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF PUGET SOUND WILL LIFT TOWARD
THE B.C. BORDER BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STABLE AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
BUT RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE. A FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
WRN WA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO IMPROVE NORTH OF
THE FRONT...BUT AFTER THE FRONT PASSES CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO LOW
END MVFR AT LEAST...1-2K FT...AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO 4-6SM
BR. LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT.

KSEA...MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LITTLE RAINFALL
EXPECTED DUE TO SHADOWING OFF THE OLYMPICS. SW WINDS 15-20 KT W/
GUSTS 30 KT...EASING TO 10 KT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT NORTH OF PUGET SOUND WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH
WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...EXCEPT GALE FORCE WINDS
IN PUGET SOUND.

WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST.
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER MOST
WATERS WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THE COAST AND OVER EXPOSED INLAND
AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST...THE
STRAIT ENTRANCES...AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG FRASER OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE OTHER WATERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CHB/MERCER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...VARIOUS FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
     WESTERN WASHINGTON.
PZ...GALE WARNING FOR PUGET SOUND THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT EAST ENTRANCE AND PUGET
     SOUND.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
     GALE WATCH COAST...ENTRANCES...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML















000
FXUS66 KSEW 260530
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN AT TIMES OVER THE NORTH PART AND
RAIN LIKELY ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. RAIN WILL DIMINISH WITH JUST A CHANCE
OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON
THANKSGIVING DAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
THEN CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COOL DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER
WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS MAY
BRING A LITTLE RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF PUGET SOUND AT
8 PM WITH SLY WINDS INCREASING S OF THE FRONT AND REMAINING MAINLY
LIGHT FROM NEAR THE E ENTRANCE TO THE N INTERIOR. ALKI WAS REPORTING
WIND GUSTS TO 43 KT THIS PAST HOUR AND OTHER OBS SITES AROUND THE
SOUND ARE GUSTY AS WELL. RAIN WILL PERSIST TO THE N OF THE FRONT SO
ANOTHER INCH OR LOCALLY 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE N
CASCADES. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT N OF THE WA/B.C. BORDER BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE BULK OF MOISTURE TO THE N OF WA. THERE
WILL BE SOME RAIN AT TIMES IN THE OLYMPICS AND AREAS N OF PUGET
SOUND AND THE CASCADES BUT AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK HYDROLOGICALLY
SIGNIFICANT.

RAIN WILL PICK UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WRN WA. THE STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR
HEAVIER RAIN ALONG S/SW FACING SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS AND N
CASCADES. 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL RENEWING THE FLOOD THREAT
FOR THE SKOKOMISH BASIN AND ALSO PRONE RIVERS IN THE N CASCADES.
SEE THE HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS. IT WILL ALSO RAIN ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS BUT THE STRONG SW FLOW WILL PROBABLY SHADOW PORTIONS OF
PUGET SOUND WITH LESS RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGING UP OVER
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS IS AHEAD OF A COLDER AIR MASS OVER B.C.
TRYING TO PUSH SWD. THE WLY FLOW WHICH STARTS OFF STRONG DURING THE
MORNING WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LIMIT
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE CASCADES. WHILE AN INCH OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE IMPACT ON
RIVERS WILL PROBABLY BE MINIMAL. WILL NEED TO LOOK OVER ALL THE 00Z
RUNS BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO QPF.

COLDER AIR WILL BE DAMMING UP ALONG THE CANADIAN ROCKIES LATER
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FRASER OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO START TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. SOME
MODELS SHOW RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SITUATION CLOSELY
AS THIS SET UP CAN SOMETIMES RESULT IN LOCALIZED LOWLAND SNOW. WILL
REVIEW THIS POTENTIAL FOR THE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE.

.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BASED ON AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WERE CLEARED OUT AND
THE MENTION OF RAIN DROPPED...EXCEPT FOR THE S PART LATE SUNDAY.
WITH COOL DRY N FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND COLD DRY NE FLOW FROM
THE FRASER VALLEY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...TEMPERATURES
COOL...AND N-NE WINDS BREEZY. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS STILL RATHER LOW...AND THE 18Z
GFS HAS JUST REVERSED COURSE AND BRINGS RAIN UP FROM OREGON ON
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT SO REMAINS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION. THE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE AND RAIN NORTHWARD FROM OREGON
SUNDAY NIGHT.  WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER W WA THERE MAY BE A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES AS
THE PRECIP MOVES NORTH. SO FAR THIS IS NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE
FORECASTS AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-EVALUATED ONCE MODEL CONSISTENCY
AND AGREEMENT IMPROVES. KAM

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAIN IN THE CASCADES EXTENDED FROM
THE SNOQUALMIE BASIN TO THE NORTH CASCADES THIS EVENING...AND IT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FOR THE EVENT
SO FAR HAS OCCURRED IN THE MOUNT RAINIER AREA...WHERE LOCALLY UP TO
7 INCHES HAS FALLEN SINCE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE COWLITZ... NISQUALLY
AND CARBON RIVERS ALL FLOODED. THAT AREA WILL ONLY RECEIVE ANOTHER
INCH OR SO OF RAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE NISQUALLY AND CARBON
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BELOW FLOOD STAGE...AND THE COWLITZ AT RANDLE
WILL CREST LATE THIS EVENING.

UP TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE BASINS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTH CASCADES...BUT SO FAR ONLY THE SNOQUALMIE RIVER IS FLOODING.
MORE HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL IN THIS AREA TONIGHT AS THE BAROCLINIC
BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD...WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES LIKELY AS THE
SNOW LEVEL REMAINS 7000 TO 8000 FT. SO OTHER RIVERS COULD STILL
FLOOD...AND IN FACT THE UPPER REACHES OF THE SNOQUALMIE AND
SKYKOMISH HAVE STARTED RISING AGAIN. IN ADDITION THE ELWHA
RIVER...FLOWING OFF THE NORTH SIDE OF THE OLYMPICS...IS RISING MORE
QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED AND IT WILL NEED WATCHING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RENEWING THE POSSIBILITY OF
FLOODING ON CASCADES RIVERS AND ALSO PERHAPS DRIVING THE SKOKOMISH
RIVER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
RAIN...WITH THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH CASCADES RECEIVING THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE 5500 TO 7000 FT.   MCDONNAL

&&

.AVIATION...A WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF PUGET SOUND WILL LIFT TOWARD
THE B.C. BORDER BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STABLE AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
BUT RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE. A FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
WRN WA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO IMPROVE NORTH OF
THE FRONT...BUT AFTER THE FRONT PASSES CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO LOW
END MVFR AT LEAST...1-2K FT...AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO 4-6SM
BR. LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT.

KSEA...MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LITTLE RAINFALL
EXPECTED DUE TO SHADOWING OFF THE OLYMPICS. SW WINDS 15-20 KT W/
GUSTS 30 KT...EASING TO 10 KT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT NORTH OF PUGET SOUND WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH
WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...EXCEPT GALE FORCE WINDS
IN PUGET SOUND.

WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST.
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER MOST
WATERS WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THE COAST AND OVER EXPOSED INLAND
AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST...THE
STRAIT ENTRANCES...AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG FRASER OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE OTHER WATERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CHB/MERCER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...VARIOUS FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
     WESTERN WASHINGTON.
PZ...GALE WARNING FOR PUGET SOUND THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT EAST ENTRANCE AND PUGET
     SOUND.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
     GALE WATCH COAST...ENTRANCES...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML















000
FXUS66 KSEW 260530
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN AT TIMES OVER THE NORTH PART AND
RAIN LIKELY ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. RAIN WILL DIMINISH WITH JUST A CHANCE
OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON
THANKSGIVING DAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
THEN CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COOL DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER
WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS MAY
BRING A LITTLE RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF PUGET SOUND AT
8 PM WITH SLY WINDS INCREASING S OF THE FRONT AND REMAINING MAINLY
LIGHT FROM NEAR THE E ENTRANCE TO THE N INTERIOR. ALKI WAS REPORTING
WIND GUSTS TO 43 KT THIS PAST HOUR AND OTHER OBS SITES AROUND THE
SOUND ARE GUSTY AS WELL. RAIN WILL PERSIST TO THE N OF THE FRONT SO
ANOTHER INCH OR LOCALLY 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE N
CASCADES. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT N OF THE WA/B.C. BORDER BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE BULK OF MOISTURE TO THE N OF WA. THERE
WILL BE SOME RAIN AT TIMES IN THE OLYMPICS AND AREAS N OF PUGET
SOUND AND THE CASCADES BUT AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK HYDROLOGICALLY
SIGNIFICANT.

RAIN WILL PICK UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WRN WA. THE STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR
HEAVIER RAIN ALONG S/SW FACING SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS AND N
CASCADES. 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL RENEWING THE FLOOD THREAT
FOR THE SKOKOMISH BASIN AND ALSO PRONE RIVERS IN THE N CASCADES.
SEE THE HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS. IT WILL ALSO RAIN ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS BUT THE STRONG SW FLOW WILL PROBABLY SHADOW PORTIONS OF
PUGET SOUND WITH LESS RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGING UP OVER
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS IS AHEAD OF A COLDER AIR MASS OVER B.C.
TRYING TO PUSH SWD. THE WLY FLOW WHICH STARTS OFF STRONG DURING THE
MORNING WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LIMIT
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE CASCADES. WHILE AN INCH OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE IMPACT ON
RIVERS WILL PROBABLY BE MINIMAL. WILL NEED TO LOOK OVER ALL THE 00Z
RUNS BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO QPF.

COLDER AIR WILL BE DAMMING UP ALONG THE CANADIAN ROCKIES LATER
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FRASER OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO START TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. SOME
MODELS SHOW RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SITUATION CLOSELY
AS THIS SET UP CAN SOMETIMES RESULT IN LOCALIZED LOWLAND SNOW. WILL
REVIEW THIS POTENTIAL FOR THE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE.

.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BASED ON AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WERE CLEARED OUT AND
THE MENTION OF RAIN DROPPED...EXCEPT FOR THE S PART LATE SUNDAY.
WITH COOL DRY N FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND COLD DRY NE FLOW FROM
THE FRASER VALLEY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...TEMPERATURES
COOL...AND N-NE WINDS BREEZY. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS STILL RATHER LOW...AND THE 18Z
GFS HAS JUST REVERSED COURSE AND BRINGS RAIN UP FROM OREGON ON
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT SO REMAINS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION. THE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE AND RAIN NORTHWARD FROM OREGON
SUNDAY NIGHT.  WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER W WA THERE MAY BE A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES AS
THE PRECIP MOVES NORTH. SO FAR THIS IS NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE
FORECASTS AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-EVALUATED ONCE MODEL CONSISTENCY
AND AGREEMENT IMPROVES. KAM

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAIN IN THE CASCADES EXTENDED FROM
THE SNOQUALMIE BASIN TO THE NORTH CASCADES THIS EVENING...AND IT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FOR THE EVENT
SO FAR HAS OCCURRED IN THE MOUNT RAINIER AREA...WHERE LOCALLY UP TO
7 INCHES HAS FALLEN SINCE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE COWLITZ... NISQUALLY
AND CARBON RIVERS ALL FLOODED. THAT AREA WILL ONLY RECEIVE ANOTHER
INCH OR SO OF RAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE NISQUALLY AND CARBON
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BELOW FLOOD STAGE...AND THE COWLITZ AT RANDLE
WILL CREST LATE THIS EVENING.

UP TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE BASINS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTH CASCADES...BUT SO FAR ONLY THE SNOQUALMIE RIVER IS FLOODING.
MORE HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL IN THIS AREA TONIGHT AS THE BAROCLINIC
BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD...WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES LIKELY AS THE
SNOW LEVEL REMAINS 7000 TO 8000 FT. SO OTHER RIVERS COULD STILL
FLOOD...AND IN FACT THE UPPER REACHES OF THE SNOQUALMIE AND
SKYKOMISH HAVE STARTED RISING AGAIN. IN ADDITION THE ELWHA
RIVER...FLOWING OFF THE NORTH SIDE OF THE OLYMPICS...IS RISING MORE
QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED AND IT WILL NEED WATCHING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RENEWING THE POSSIBILITY OF
FLOODING ON CASCADES RIVERS AND ALSO PERHAPS DRIVING THE SKOKOMISH
RIVER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
RAIN...WITH THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH CASCADES RECEIVING THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE 5500 TO 7000 FT.   MCDONNAL

&&

.AVIATION...A WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF PUGET SOUND WILL LIFT TOWARD
THE B.C. BORDER BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STABLE AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
BUT RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE. A FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
WRN WA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO IMPROVE NORTH OF
THE FRONT...BUT AFTER THE FRONT PASSES CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO LOW
END MVFR AT LEAST...1-2K FT...AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO 4-6SM
BR. LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT.

KSEA...MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LITTLE RAINFALL
EXPECTED DUE TO SHADOWING OFF THE OLYMPICS. SW WINDS 15-20 KT W/
GUSTS 30 KT...EASING TO 10 KT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT NORTH OF PUGET SOUND WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH
WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...EXCEPT GALE FORCE WINDS
IN PUGET SOUND.

WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST.
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER MOST
WATERS WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THE COAST AND OVER EXPOSED INLAND
AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST...THE
STRAIT ENTRANCES...AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG FRASER OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE OTHER WATERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CHB/MERCER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...VARIOUS FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
     WESTERN WASHINGTON.
PZ...GALE WARNING FOR PUGET SOUND THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT EAST ENTRANCE AND PUGET
     SOUND.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
     GALE WATCH COAST...ENTRANCES...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML















000
FXUS66 KSEW 260530
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN AT TIMES OVER THE NORTH PART AND
RAIN LIKELY ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. RAIN WILL DIMINISH WITH JUST A CHANCE
OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON
THANKSGIVING DAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
THEN CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COOL DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER
WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS MAY
BRING A LITTLE RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF PUGET SOUND AT
8 PM WITH SLY WINDS INCREASING S OF THE FRONT AND REMAINING MAINLY
LIGHT FROM NEAR THE E ENTRANCE TO THE N INTERIOR. ALKI WAS REPORTING
WIND GUSTS TO 43 KT THIS PAST HOUR AND OTHER OBS SITES AROUND THE
SOUND ARE GUSTY AS WELL. RAIN WILL PERSIST TO THE N OF THE FRONT SO
ANOTHER INCH OR LOCALLY 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE N
CASCADES. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT N OF THE WA/B.C. BORDER BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE BULK OF MOISTURE TO THE N OF WA. THERE
WILL BE SOME RAIN AT TIMES IN THE OLYMPICS AND AREAS N OF PUGET
SOUND AND THE CASCADES BUT AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK HYDROLOGICALLY
SIGNIFICANT.

RAIN WILL PICK UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WRN WA. THE STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR
HEAVIER RAIN ALONG S/SW FACING SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS AND N
CASCADES. 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL RENEWING THE FLOOD THREAT
FOR THE SKOKOMISH BASIN AND ALSO PRONE RIVERS IN THE N CASCADES.
SEE THE HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS. IT WILL ALSO RAIN ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS BUT THE STRONG SW FLOW WILL PROBABLY SHADOW PORTIONS OF
PUGET SOUND WITH LESS RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGING UP OVER
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS IS AHEAD OF A COLDER AIR MASS OVER B.C.
TRYING TO PUSH SWD. THE WLY FLOW WHICH STARTS OFF STRONG DURING THE
MORNING WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LIMIT
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE CASCADES. WHILE AN INCH OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE IMPACT ON
RIVERS WILL PROBABLY BE MINIMAL. WILL NEED TO LOOK OVER ALL THE 00Z
RUNS BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO QPF.

COLDER AIR WILL BE DAMMING UP ALONG THE CANADIAN ROCKIES LATER
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FRASER OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO START TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. SOME
MODELS SHOW RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SITUATION CLOSELY
AS THIS SET UP CAN SOMETIMES RESULT IN LOCALIZED LOWLAND SNOW. WILL
REVIEW THIS POTENTIAL FOR THE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE.

.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BASED ON AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WERE CLEARED OUT AND
THE MENTION OF RAIN DROPPED...EXCEPT FOR THE S PART LATE SUNDAY.
WITH COOL DRY N FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND COLD DRY NE FLOW FROM
THE FRASER VALLEY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...TEMPERATURES
COOL...AND N-NE WINDS BREEZY. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS STILL RATHER LOW...AND THE 18Z
GFS HAS JUST REVERSED COURSE AND BRINGS RAIN UP FROM OREGON ON
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT SO REMAINS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION. THE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE AND RAIN NORTHWARD FROM OREGON
SUNDAY NIGHT.  WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER W WA THERE MAY BE A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES AS
THE PRECIP MOVES NORTH. SO FAR THIS IS NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE
FORECASTS AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-EVALUATED ONCE MODEL CONSISTENCY
AND AGREEMENT IMPROVES. KAM

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAIN IN THE CASCADES EXTENDED FROM
THE SNOQUALMIE BASIN TO THE NORTH CASCADES THIS EVENING...AND IT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FOR THE EVENT
SO FAR HAS OCCURRED IN THE MOUNT RAINIER AREA...WHERE LOCALLY UP TO
7 INCHES HAS FALLEN SINCE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE COWLITZ... NISQUALLY
AND CARBON RIVERS ALL FLOODED. THAT AREA WILL ONLY RECEIVE ANOTHER
INCH OR SO OF RAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE NISQUALLY AND CARBON
RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BELOW FLOOD STAGE...AND THE COWLITZ AT RANDLE
WILL CREST LATE THIS EVENING.

UP TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE BASINS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTH CASCADES...BUT SO FAR ONLY THE SNOQUALMIE RIVER IS FLOODING.
MORE HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL IN THIS AREA TONIGHT AS THE BAROCLINIC
BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD...WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES LIKELY AS THE
SNOW LEVEL REMAINS 7000 TO 8000 FT. SO OTHER RIVERS COULD STILL
FLOOD...AND IN FACT THE UPPER REACHES OF THE SNOQUALMIE AND
SKYKOMISH HAVE STARTED RISING AGAIN. IN ADDITION THE ELWHA
RIVER...FLOWING OFF THE NORTH SIDE OF THE OLYMPICS...IS RISING MORE
QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED AND IT WILL NEED WATCHING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RENEWING THE POSSIBILITY OF
FLOODING ON CASCADES RIVERS AND ALSO PERHAPS DRIVING THE SKOKOMISH
RIVER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
RAIN...WITH THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH CASCADES RECEIVING THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE 5500 TO 7000 FT.   MCDONNAL

&&

.AVIATION...A WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF PUGET SOUND WILL LIFT TOWARD
THE B.C. BORDER BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STABLE AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
BUT RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE. A FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
WRN WA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO IMPROVE NORTH OF
THE FRONT...BUT AFTER THE FRONT PASSES CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO LOW
END MVFR AT LEAST...1-2K FT...AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO 4-6SM
BR. LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT.

KSEA...MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LITTLE RAINFALL
EXPECTED DUE TO SHADOWING OFF THE OLYMPICS. SW WINDS 15-20 KT W/
GUSTS 30 KT...EASING TO 10 KT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT NORTH OF PUGET SOUND WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH
WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...EXCEPT GALE FORCE WINDS
IN PUGET SOUND.

WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST.
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER MOST
WATERS WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THE COAST AND OVER EXPOSED INLAND
AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST...THE
STRAIT ENTRANCES...AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG FRASER OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE OTHER WATERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CHB/MERCER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...VARIOUS FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
     WESTERN WASHINGTON.
PZ...GALE WARNING FOR PUGET SOUND THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT EAST ENTRANCE AND PUGET
     SOUND.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
     GALE WATCH COAST...ENTRANCES...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML















000
FXUS66 KPQR 260511
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
909 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA
DRY...EXCEPT FOR SW WASHINGTON. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM REACHES THE
COAST LATE WED EVENING AND THEN MOVES INLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF EAST WIND IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER DRAMATICALLY THIS WEEKEND...BUT SLOWLY RISE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN...MOSTLY OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED...OVER THE COAST RANGE AND SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON
CASCADES...WITH RAIN RATES OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER
HOUR. AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TO REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH CLEARING
SKIES PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
VALLEY...SHOULD SEE SOME FOG LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT
ANY VISIBILITY BELOW ABOUT 1/2 MILE SHOULD BE ISOLATED. FOR THE
FORECAST UPDATE...TOOK OUT POPS FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND TAPERED RAIN CHANCES ELSEWHERE OFF SLIGHTLY
FASTER. ALSO RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BASED ON TODAY`S OBSERVED HIGHS AND A PERSISTENT PATTERN.
FINALLY...HAVE INCREASED WINDS ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW NIGHT BASED
ON LATEST MODELS. EXPECT WINDY BUT SUB-WARNING CONDITIONS. BOWEN

.SHORT TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...500 MB
RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED ALONG 130W WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE RIDING OVER
THE TOP. KLGX RADAR INDICATING RETURNS OVER MUCH OF SW WA.
HOWEVER...ECHO INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED AND THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE
LATEST 6-HR PRECIP AMOUNTS. RAINFALL RATES AS OF 21Z IN THE SW WA
CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS HAVE EASED TO AROUND ONE TENTH OR LESS. 24-HR
TOTALS GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH SOME SNOTELS COMING IN WITH 3.5
INCHES. 500 MB HEIGHTS NEAR 570 DM COMBINED WITH 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 550S AND 850 MB TEMPS 8-10C HAVE
RESULTED IN NEAR-RECORD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. THE MILD AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCING TO VALLEY FOG FORMATION
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINTS. FOG WILL
FAVOR THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.

THE THANKSGIVING FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE COASTLINE LATE
WED EVENING THEN MIGRATE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THANKSGIVING MORNING.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND CASCADES THANKSGIVING NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE THE
QPF FIELD VALID 06Z FRI QUITE DIFFERENTLY. THE GFS SHOWS AN OBVIOUS
BREAK IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH SEPARATE QPF BULLS-EYES OVER FAR
SW OREGON AND ALSO IN THE S WA CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. THE ECMWF SHOW
A MUCH LARGER SRN QPF AREA EXTENDING FURTHER N...TO THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND CASCADES. BY 12Z FRI THE ECMWF HAS A BROAD SWATH
OF QPF OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS THE TWO
SEPARATE AND DISTANT CORES. IN ANY EVENT...THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
QUITE MILD THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS WELL
ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES.

THINGS START TO CHANGE FRI AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET STREAM BRANCHES PHASING TOGETHER. BOTH
MODELS HAVE A MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR MASS SAGGING S THROUGH NRN WA
FRI. MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA OF ENHANCED QPF ALONG THE REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS IN QUESTION.
THE GFS HAS IT ALONG A LINE FROM NEWPORT TO ALBANY WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS IT A BIT MORE NORTH BUT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN
EVOLVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO SLIDE
S THROUGH WA AND INTO NRN OREGON. 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF ECMWF RUNS...DEPICTING A COLD AIR WEDGE IN THE
CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE BY 00Z SUN. LOOK FOR THE EAST WIND TO RETURN
AS WELL...BEGINNING SAT MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BY 00Z SUN THE GFS HAS -8 TO -10C 850 MB AIR IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA
GORGE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS JUST A TOUCH WARMER. FORTUNATELY...THE
DRIER NLY FLOW WILL SHUNT PRECIP FURTHER TO THE S. A CLOSED LOW WELL
OF THE NRN CA COAST SAT STARTS TO DRIFT NE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEFORMATION BAND OVER NRN CA TO DRIFT NWD LATE
SUN INTO MON. THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS THE MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE
COLD AIR....ESPECIALLY FOR THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER
VALLEY. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS HAVE DRAMATICALLY IMPROVED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS FOR THE INLAND LOCATIONS WHILE THE COAST HAS LARGELY
REMAINED IFR OR WORSE THIS EVENING. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING
THE SITUATION WELL AT ALL AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
REMAINED. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT TRANSITS
THE REGION WITH SURFACE WINDS ON DECREASING. DEW POINTS ARE IN
THE 50S AT THIS HOUR BUT SHOULD LOWER SOME THIS EVENING. HAVE
DOUBTS DEW POINTS WILL BE ABLE TO KEEP AHEAD OF TEMPERATURES AND
EXPECT TO SEE FOG DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS FAR TOO
LOW...HOWEVER...FOR SPECIFIC AREAS AND DECIDED AGAIN INCLUSION IN
THE TAF PACKAGES ASIDE FROM KSLE AND KEUG. REGARDLESS...HAVE
REASONABLE CONFIDENCE LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP INLAND WHERE FOG
DOESN`T. DONT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT ABOVE IFR UNTIL PERHAPS
AFTER 19-21Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CIGS CURRENTLY BUT EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP SOME WITH ENOUGH CLEARING ALLOWING FOR A LOWER STRATUS
DECK TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A 015 TO 020 DECK WILL REMAIN
UNTIL AROUND 20Z BEFORE CLEARING OUT THROUGH 27/06Z JBONK

&&

.MARINE...WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS HAVE STAYED BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WITH THE HRRR MODEL HAVING THE BEST HANDLE
ON THE SITUATION AT THIS TIME. THAT MODEL DOES NOT BRING A THREAT
FOR CRITERIA LEVEL GUSTS BACK UP UNTIL AFTER 5 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY.
AS SUCH HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT WIND ADVISORY FOR THE TIME
BEING. SEAS ARE ALSO RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT BELOW GUIDANCE AND THE
FORECAST SO HAVE ALSO LOWERED JUST A BIT.

THE CURRENT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE
AS A STRONG FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT HAVING ISSUED A GALE WARNING.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH BY THE SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW AND THE MODELS VARY ON HOW
FAR NORTH IT WILL REACH...AND ON THE TIMING. THEREFORE...THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR FRIDAY FORECAST. A LARGE LOW WILL DROP SOUTH
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY AND SETTLE SW OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND...AND GENERATE OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE
WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ENHANCED GUSTS NEAR THE COASTAL
GAPS...POSSIBLY NEEDING A WIND HEADLINE. JBONK/TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO 9
     AM PST WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM TO
     10 PM PST WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 260511
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
909 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA
DRY...EXCEPT FOR SW WASHINGTON. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM REACHES THE
COAST LATE WED EVENING AND THEN MOVES INLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF EAST WIND IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER DRAMATICALLY THIS WEEKEND...BUT SLOWLY RISE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN...MOSTLY OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED...OVER THE COAST RANGE AND SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON
CASCADES...WITH RAIN RATES OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER
HOUR. AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TO REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH CLEARING
SKIES PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
VALLEY...SHOULD SEE SOME FOG LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT
ANY VISIBILITY BELOW ABOUT 1/2 MILE SHOULD BE ISOLATED. FOR THE
FORECAST UPDATE...TOOK OUT POPS FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND TAPERED RAIN CHANCES ELSEWHERE OFF SLIGHTLY
FASTER. ALSO RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BASED ON TODAY`S OBSERVED HIGHS AND A PERSISTENT PATTERN.
FINALLY...HAVE INCREASED WINDS ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW NIGHT BASED
ON LATEST MODELS. EXPECT WINDY BUT SUB-WARNING CONDITIONS. BOWEN

.SHORT TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...500 MB
RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED ALONG 130W WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE RIDING OVER
THE TOP. KLGX RADAR INDICATING RETURNS OVER MUCH OF SW WA.
HOWEVER...ECHO INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED AND THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE
LATEST 6-HR PRECIP AMOUNTS. RAINFALL RATES AS OF 21Z IN THE SW WA
CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS HAVE EASED TO AROUND ONE TENTH OR LESS. 24-HR
TOTALS GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH SOME SNOTELS COMING IN WITH 3.5
INCHES. 500 MB HEIGHTS NEAR 570 DM COMBINED WITH 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 550S AND 850 MB TEMPS 8-10C HAVE
RESULTED IN NEAR-RECORD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. THE MILD AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCING TO VALLEY FOG FORMATION
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINTS. FOG WILL
FAVOR THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.

THE THANKSGIVING FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE COASTLINE LATE
WED EVENING THEN MIGRATE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THANKSGIVING MORNING.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND CASCADES THANKSGIVING NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE THE
QPF FIELD VALID 06Z FRI QUITE DIFFERENTLY. THE GFS SHOWS AN OBVIOUS
BREAK IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH SEPARATE QPF BULLS-EYES OVER FAR
SW OREGON AND ALSO IN THE S WA CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. THE ECMWF SHOW
A MUCH LARGER SRN QPF AREA EXTENDING FURTHER N...TO THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND CASCADES. BY 12Z FRI THE ECMWF HAS A BROAD SWATH
OF QPF OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS THE TWO
SEPARATE AND DISTANT CORES. IN ANY EVENT...THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
QUITE MILD THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS WELL
ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES.

THINGS START TO CHANGE FRI AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET STREAM BRANCHES PHASING TOGETHER. BOTH
MODELS HAVE A MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR MASS SAGGING S THROUGH NRN WA
FRI. MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA OF ENHANCED QPF ALONG THE REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS IN QUESTION.
THE GFS HAS IT ALONG A LINE FROM NEWPORT TO ALBANY WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS IT A BIT MORE NORTH BUT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN
EVOLVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO SLIDE
S THROUGH WA AND INTO NRN OREGON. 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF ECMWF RUNS...DEPICTING A COLD AIR WEDGE IN THE
CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE BY 00Z SUN. LOOK FOR THE EAST WIND TO RETURN
AS WELL...BEGINNING SAT MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BY 00Z SUN THE GFS HAS -8 TO -10C 850 MB AIR IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA
GORGE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS JUST A TOUCH WARMER. FORTUNATELY...THE
DRIER NLY FLOW WILL SHUNT PRECIP FURTHER TO THE S. A CLOSED LOW WELL
OF THE NRN CA COAST SAT STARTS TO DRIFT NE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEFORMATION BAND OVER NRN CA TO DRIFT NWD LATE
SUN INTO MON. THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS THE MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE
COLD AIR....ESPECIALLY FOR THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER
VALLEY. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS HAVE DRAMATICALLY IMPROVED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS FOR THE INLAND LOCATIONS WHILE THE COAST HAS LARGELY
REMAINED IFR OR WORSE THIS EVENING. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING
THE SITUATION WELL AT ALL AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
REMAINED. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT TRANSITS
THE REGION WITH SURFACE WINDS ON DECREASING. DEW POINTS ARE IN
THE 50S AT THIS HOUR BUT SHOULD LOWER SOME THIS EVENING. HAVE
DOUBTS DEW POINTS WILL BE ABLE TO KEEP AHEAD OF TEMPERATURES AND
EXPECT TO SEE FOG DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS FAR TOO
LOW...HOWEVER...FOR SPECIFIC AREAS AND DECIDED AGAIN INCLUSION IN
THE TAF PACKAGES ASIDE FROM KSLE AND KEUG. REGARDLESS...HAVE
REASONABLE CONFIDENCE LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP INLAND WHERE FOG
DOESN`T. DONT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT ABOVE IFR UNTIL PERHAPS
AFTER 19-21Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CIGS CURRENTLY BUT EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP SOME WITH ENOUGH CLEARING ALLOWING FOR A LOWER STRATUS
DECK TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A 015 TO 020 DECK WILL REMAIN
UNTIL AROUND 20Z BEFORE CLEARING OUT THROUGH 27/06Z JBONK

&&

.MARINE...WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS HAVE STAYED BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WITH THE HRRR MODEL HAVING THE BEST HANDLE
ON THE SITUATION AT THIS TIME. THAT MODEL DOES NOT BRING A THREAT
FOR CRITERIA LEVEL GUSTS BACK UP UNTIL AFTER 5 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY.
AS SUCH HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT WIND ADVISORY FOR THE TIME
BEING. SEAS ARE ALSO RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT BELOW GUIDANCE AND THE
FORECAST SO HAVE ALSO LOWERED JUST A BIT.

THE CURRENT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE
AS A STRONG FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT HAVING ISSUED A GALE WARNING.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH BY THE SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW AND THE MODELS VARY ON HOW
FAR NORTH IT WILL REACH...AND ON THE TIMING. THEREFORE...THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR FRIDAY FORECAST. A LARGE LOW WILL DROP SOUTH
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY AND SETTLE SW OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND...AND GENERATE OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE
WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ENHANCED GUSTS NEAR THE COASTAL
GAPS...POSSIBLY NEEDING A WIND HEADLINE. JBONK/TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO 9
     AM PST WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM TO
     10 PM PST WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 260503
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
903 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and wet conditions will continue through Thursday. Snow
levels will be on the rise tonight...but expect some
accumulations for the areas near the Canadian border through
morning. Thanksgiving will be breezy...wet and continued warm.
Then a colder weather pattern is expected for the holiday weekend
with the mountains receiving several rounds of snow. Snow levels
will fall to valley floors by the weekend.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: Very messy and tricky weather pattern. The colder
air trapped near the lee of the Cascades, especially the Methow
and Okanogan Valley, has been harder to get out of those crevices
than coins that fell into the couch cushions. So I have been
playing catch up. Earlier this evening reports of snow in this
region have been in the 4 to 8 inch range, with local amounts near
a foot in place such as Mazama deep in the Methow valley closer to
the Cascades and near Molson, around 4000 feet. Recent reports and
a look at area webcams, including around Oroville going toward the
Canadian border show some rather sloppy/white conditions.

I expanded the areal coverage of the Winter Weather Advisory which
was in place here to include more of the Methow and Okanogan
Valley. The snow should continue to impact the region through the
next several hours, then begin to dissipate in intensity and
coverage overnight into Wednesday morning. So continue to look
for some snowfall through about midnight to 2 am, before
dissipating around the 2-4 AM hour.

Precipitation elsewhere has been in and out, but most of the
newest guidance keeps some moderate chance going across east-
central and northeast WA and north ID through at least the early
overnight, before the focus starts to retreat north and east into
the Panhandle by Wednesday morning. I decreased overall PoPs
across the Basin through the Spokane/C`dA area southward. However
they still remain in the lower likely category in that
Spokane/C`dA area and higher Palouse.

Overnight lows will be tricky. Most places may have already
reached their lows for the night, with many models suggesting
temperatures will remain steady or slowly rise overnight
especially away from the northern lee of the Cascades and
sheltered northern valleys. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
00z TAFS: We are expecting the steady precipitation to begin
moving north through the forecast area this evening. Snow levels
will keep the precipitation at the TAF sites as rain.
However...expect moderate snow for a few hours for the northern
valleys including the Okanogan and Methow valleys through 12z. The
boundary layer will remain saturated and will support stratus and
some fog formation for the TAF sites with conditions wildly
fluctuating between MVFR to VFR/LIFR and back as bands of
precipitation move in and out of areas. Tobin



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  48  42  49  40  45 /  70  40  30  20  30  70
Coeur d`Alene  35  48  41  47  40  44 /  70  80  50  50  30  80
Pullman        40  54  44  52  42  48 /  70  20  20  10  30  80
Lewiston       44  59  47  55  45  52 /  60  10  10  10  30  70
Colville       36  45  39  45  38  42 /  80  80  60  40  40  70
Sandpoint      33  44  38  43  37  41 /  70  80  70  60  60  80
Kellogg        34  43  40  42  38  39 / 100  90  60  60  60  90
Moses Lake     38  54  44  54  40  51 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Wenatchee      40  51  42  50  41  46 /  40  10  20  10  40  30
Omak           32  44  38  44  35  41 /  80  40  30  20  50  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northern
     Panhandle.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northeast
     Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 260503
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
903 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and wet conditions will continue through Thursday. Snow
levels will be on the rise tonight...but expect some
accumulations for the areas near the Canadian border through
morning. Thanksgiving will be breezy...wet and continued warm.
Then a colder weather pattern is expected for the holiday weekend
with the mountains receiving several rounds of snow. Snow levels
will fall to valley floors by the weekend.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: Very messy and tricky weather pattern. The colder
air trapped near the lee of the Cascades, especially the Methow
and Okanogan Valley, has been harder to get out of those crevices
than coins that fell into the couch cushions. So I have been
playing catch up. Earlier this evening reports of snow in this
region have been in the 4 to 8 inch range, with local amounts near
a foot in place such as Mazama deep in the Methow valley closer to
the Cascades and near Molson, around 4000 feet. Recent reports and
a look at area webcams, including around Oroville going toward the
Canadian border show some rather sloppy/white conditions.

I expanded the areal coverage of the Winter Weather Advisory which
was in place here to include more of the Methow and Okanogan
Valley. The snow should continue to impact the region through the
next several hours, then begin to dissipate in intensity and
coverage overnight into Wednesday morning. So continue to look
for some snowfall through about midnight to 2 am, before
dissipating around the 2-4 AM hour.

Precipitation elsewhere has been in and out, but most of the
newest guidance keeps some moderate chance going across east-
central and northeast WA and north ID through at least the early
overnight, before the focus starts to retreat north and east into
the Panhandle by Wednesday morning. I decreased overall PoPs
across the Basin through the Spokane/C`dA area southward. However
they still remain in the lower likely category in that
Spokane/C`dA area and higher Palouse.

Overnight lows will be tricky. Most places may have already
reached their lows for the night, with many models suggesting
temperatures will remain steady or slowly rise overnight
especially away from the northern lee of the Cascades and
sheltered northern valleys. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
00z TAFS: We are expecting the steady precipitation to begin
moving north through the forecast area this evening. Snow levels
will keep the precipitation at the TAF sites as rain.
However...expect moderate snow for a few hours for the northern
valleys including the Okanogan and Methow valleys through 12z. The
boundary layer will remain saturated and will support stratus and
some fog formation for the TAF sites with conditions wildly
fluctuating between MVFR to VFR/LIFR and back as bands of
precipitation move in and out of areas. Tobin



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  48  42  49  40  45 /  70  40  30  20  30  70
Coeur d`Alene  35  48  41  47  40  44 /  70  80  50  50  30  80
Pullman        40  54  44  52  42  48 /  70  20  20  10  30  80
Lewiston       44  59  47  55  45  52 /  60  10  10  10  30  70
Colville       36  45  39  45  38  42 /  80  80  60  40  40  70
Sandpoint      33  44  38  43  37  41 /  70  80  70  60  60  80
Kellogg        34  43  40  42  38  39 / 100  90  60  60  60  90
Moses Lake     38  54  44  54  40  51 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Wenatchee      40  51  42  50  41  46 /  40  10  20  10  40  30
Omak           32  44  38  44  35  41 /  80  40  30  20  50  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northern
     Panhandle.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northeast
     Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 260503
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
903 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and wet conditions will continue through Thursday. Snow
levels will be on the rise tonight...but expect some
accumulations for the areas near the Canadian border through
morning. Thanksgiving will be breezy...wet and continued warm.
Then a colder weather pattern is expected for the holiday weekend
with the mountains receiving several rounds of snow. Snow levels
will fall to valley floors by the weekend.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: Very messy and tricky weather pattern. The colder
air trapped near the lee of the Cascades, especially the Methow
and Okanogan Valley, has been harder to get out of those crevices
than coins that fell into the couch cushions. So I have been
playing catch up. Earlier this evening reports of snow in this
region have been in the 4 to 8 inch range, with local amounts near
a foot in place such as Mazama deep in the Methow valley closer to
the Cascades and near Molson, around 4000 feet. Recent reports and
a look at area webcams, including around Oroville going toward the
Canadian border show some rather sloppy/white conditions.

I expanded the areal coverage of the Winter Weather Advisory which
was in place here to include more of the Methow and Okanogan
Valley. The snow should continue to impact the region through the
next several hours, then begin to dissipate in intensity and
coverage overnight into Wednesday morning. So continue to look
for some snowfall through about midnight to 2 am, before
dissipating around the 2-4 AM hour.

Precipitation elsewhere has been in and out, but most of the
newest guidance keeps some moderate chance going across east-
central and northeast WA and north ID through at least the early
overnight, before the focus starts to retreat north and east into
the Panhandle by Wednesday morning. I decreased overall PoPs
across the Basin through the Spokane/C`dA area southward. However
they still remain in the lower likely category in that
Spokane/C`dA area and higher Palouse.

Overnight lows will be tricky. Most places may have already
reached their lows for the night, with many models suggesting
temperatures will remain steady or slowly rise overnight
especially away from the northern lee of the Cascades and
sheltered northern valleys. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
00z TAFS: We are expecting the steady precipitation to begin
moving north through the forecast area this evening. Snow levels
will keep the precipitation at the TAF sites as rain.
However...expect moderate snow for a few hours for the northern
valleys including the Okanogan and Methow valleys through 12z. The
boundary layer will remain saturated and will support stratus and
some fog formation for the TAF sites with conditions wildly
fluctuating between MVFR to VFR/LIFR and back as bands of
precipitation move in and out of areas. Tobin



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  48  42  49  40  45 /  70  40  30  20  30  70
Coeur d`Alene  35  48  41  47  40  44 /  70  80  50  50  30  80
Pullman        40  54  44  52  42  48 /  70  20  20  10  30  80
Lewiston       44  59  47  55  45  52 /  60  10  10  10  30  70
Colville       36  45  39  45  38  42 /  80  80  60  40  40  70
Sandpoint      33  44  38  43  37  41 /  70  80  70  60  60  80
Kellogg        34  43  40  42  38  39 / 100  90  60  60  60  90
Moses Lake     38  54  44  54  40  51 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Wenatchee      40  51  42  50  41  46 /  40  10  20  10  40  30
Omak           32  44  38  44  35  41 /  80  40  30  20  50  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northern
     Panhandle.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northeast
     Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 260503
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
903 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and wet conditions will continue through Thursday. Snow
levels will be on the rise tonight...but expect some
accumulations for the areas near the Canadian border through
morning. Thanksgiving will be breezy...wet and continued warm.
Then a colder weather pattern is expected for the holiday weekend
with the mountains receiving several rounds of snow. Snow levels
will fall to valley floors by the weekend.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: Very messy and tricky weather pattern. The colder
air trapped near the lee of the Cascades, especially the Methow
and Okanogan Valley, has been harder to get out of those crevices
than coins that fell into the couch cushions. So I have been
playing catch up. Earlier this evening reports of snow in this
region have been in the 4 to 8 inch range, with local amounts near
a foot in place such as Mazama deep in the Methow valley closer to
the Cascades and near Molson, around 4000 feet. Recent reports and
a look at area webcams, including around Oroville going toward the
Canadian border show some rather sloppy/white conditions.

I expanded the areal coverage of the Winter Weather Advisory which
was in place here to include more of the Methow and Okanogan
Valley. The snow should continue to impact the region through the
next several hours, then begin to dissipate in intensity and
coverage overnight into Wednesday morning. So continue to look
for some snowfall through about midnight to 2 am, before
dissipating around the 2-4 AM hour.

Precipitation elsewhere has been in and out, but most of the
newest guidance keeps some moderate chance going across east-
central and northeast WA and north ID through at least the early
overnight, before the focus starts to retreat north and east into
the Panhandle by Wednesday morning. I decreased overall PoPs
across the Basin through the Spokane/C`dA area southward. However
they still remain in the lower likely category in that
Spokane/C`dA area and higher Palouse.

Overnight lows will be tricky. Most places may have already
reached their lows for the night, with many models suggesting
temperatures will remain steady or slowly rise overnight
especially away from the northern lee of the Cascades and
sheltered northern valleys. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
00z TAFS: We are expecting the steady precipitation to begin
moving north through the forecast area this evening. Snow levels
will keep the precipitation at the TAF sites as rain.
However...expect moderate snow for a few hours for the northern
valleys including the Okanogan and Methow valleys through 12z. The
boundary layer will remain saturated and will support stratus and
some fog formation for the TAF sites with conditions wildly
fluctuating between MVFR to VFR/LIFR and back as bands of
precipitation move in and out of areas. Tobin



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  48  42  49  40  45 /  70  40  30  20  30  70
Coeur d`Alene  35  48  41  47  40  44 /  70  80  50  50  30  80
Pullman        40  54  44  52  42  48 /  70  20  20  10  30  80
Lewiston       44  59  47  55  45  52 /  60  10  10  10  30  70
Colville       36  45  39  45  38  42 /  80  80  60  40  40  70
Sandpoint      33  44  38  43  37  41 /  70  80  70  60  60  80
Kellogg        34  43  40  42  38  39 / 100  90  60  60  60  90
Moses Lake     38  54  44  54  40  51 /  20  10  10  10  20  30
Wenatchee      40  51  42  50  41  46 /  40  10  20  10  40  30
Omak           32  44  38  44  35  41 /  80  40  30  20  50  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northern
     Panhandle.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northeast
     Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 260041
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
441 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and wet conditions will continue through Thursday. Snow
levels will be on the rise tonight...but expect some
accumulations for the areas near the Canadian border through
morning. Thanksgiving will be breezy...wet and continued warm.
Then a colder weather pattern is expected for the holiday weekend
with the mountains receiving several rounds of snow. Snow levels
will fall to valley floors by the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update...Snow levels are slower to rise for the Okanogan valley
and the Methow valley than previously thought. Observers are
indicating localized moderate to heavy snow. As such a winter
weather advisory for snow has been issued for these locations.

Tonight and Wednesday...The ridge of high pressure that built
into the region on Monday and overnight was pushed down by a short
wave disturbance moving over the top of the ridge this morning.
This did two things, first it pushed the moisture further south
over the southern zones today and second it allowed cooler and
drier air to filter into the northern valleys. For tonight and
Wednesday that front will push back to the north. This will
increase the precipitation potential across the northern zones and
begin to dry conditions out across the southern east slopes...the
basin and portions of the WA Palouse.

*Precipitation: Yes and plenty of it outside the Columbia basin
 and lower east slopes. The lower elevations will likely see .10
 to .20...the northern mountains from a quarter to a half
 inch...the Panhandle mountains from a half to just under an
 inch...and for the Cascades anywhere from about half inch to
 almost 2 inches.

*Snow levels: Currently snow levels are pretty high over the
 forecast area...between 4k-5k feet and with additional warm air
 advection they should remain high. So precipitation will be as
 rain. The exception will be across the northern mountains and
 dropping south along the Panhandle and the Okanogan and Methow
 valleys where the cooler and drier air has moved in. Many of the
 valley locations will most likely wet-bulb (evaporative cooling)
 to right around freezing and the some of the valleys up near the
 Canadian border may see wet snow accumulation of 1-3 inches
 overnight. The mountain will locally pick up 5-8 additional
 inches. So the Winter Weather advisory will be extended through
 Wednesday morning and issued down to the valley floor. A bigger
 challenge will be Shoshone county. For the most part snow levels
 are above 4-4.5k feet. A nose of cooler air has remained in the
 vicinity of Lookout Pass. I has been snowing up there all day and
 new guidance indicates that snow level for that area will not
 rise above Pass level until after 12z so that advisory will also
 be extended...but mainly for the Look Out pass area.

*Temperatures and Winds: Temperatures will remain mild through the night
 with highs on Wednesday in the 40s and 50s. Winds will increase
 through the night out of the Southwest 10-20 mph with gusts to 25
 mph. Tobin

Wednesday night through Friday night...An active and mostly wet
rather than white period is in store for this time frame. Pacific
satellite reveals a nearly stationary closed low way off the
Pacific coast in the southern Gulf of Alaska with an upper level
ridge ahead of it. Models are in good agreement and consistent
over previous runs in keeping this low offshore...but the issue
will be interplay between a currently ill defined short wave
dropping down the coast of the Alaska Panhandle right now...and
the deep fetch of subtropical moisture feeding ahead of the
Pacific closed low. The descending wave will flatten the current
ridge and direct the moisture feed directly into the forecast
area beginning Wednesday night and continuing through Friday
evening. Finally by late Friday night another shot of very dry
modified arctic air will be drawn into the region behind the
passage of the northern wave. The GFS model is more aggressive
with the evolution while the EC is slower. The ECMWF appears to be
more consistent over a series of previous runs and this model was
used as the basis for the forecast.

All of this reasoning adds up to a wet forecast as the moisture
plume feeds into the region...but there will likely be a
perceptible rain shadow in the Cascades Lee as the mid level flow
remains westerly...but this will also enhance precipitation into
the Idaho Panhandle and northeast Washington mountains. Snow
levels will stay very high in the warm advection pattern ahead of
the swooping coastal short wave. The best chance for a back fill
into the basin of significant rain will be on Friday as the main
fetch is enhanced along the cold front leading edge of the the
arctic air. Storm total precipitation totals through this 48 hour
period will range from upwards of 2 inches on the high Cascades
and northeast mountains (although much of this above 6000 feet
will be locked up as snow) to 1/2 to 1 inch of rain in the
valleys of these regions...to 1/2 to 3/4 of and inch of rain over
the rising terrain of the east basin and a tenth or two in the
deep basin.

Persistently breezy and potentially gusty southwest winds will
also characterize this period...with all models indicating a
slowly drifting but strengthening surface low pressure over
southern British Columbia promoting a tight southerly gradient
over the forecast area with a strong potential of mixing stronger
winds aloft down to the surface during the daylight periods.

Snow levels will crash Friday night from north to south...but by
this time the air mass will be aggressively drying out with the
only significant accumulations expected in the Idaho Panhandle
mountains above 3000 feet or so.

So...in general a raw...windy and wet pattern with relatively mild
temperatures is expected through Friday with a stark cooling trend
Friday night. /Fugazzi

Saturday through Tuesday: Period looks to have a variety of
weather including both periods of both dry and wet conditions.
We will start the weekend off with a continental polar front
dropping out of Canada ushering in much colder and drier air to
the region. This will bring an end to the precipitation chances
quickly for the north and central portions of the area as
dewpoints drop to the floor and skies begin to clear from north to
south. As the colder air rushes in, we may have the chance for
some snowfall especially in the southern portions of the forecast
area Saturday as enough moisture remains to promote rain and/or
snow. The set up is similar to an event we saw earlier this year
as the cold polar air will be battling the moist Pacific air and
along the boundary is where the best precip chances will be. For
the weekend it looks to stay in far southern WA, the southern
Panhandle and mainly Oregon. As the cold air advects in from the
north we will also see our winds increase as cold air advection
coupled with the downsloping topography of the region supports it.
The winds are something that will have to be further examined to
get a better idea of the magnitude we could be looking at. Usually
with cold air intrusions such as this we see pretty good amounts
of wind especially though the Purcell trench, the Okanogan valley
and also in the West Plains and Columbia Basin.

Now we will move to the more exciting part of the forecast as the
moisture tap shifts from the mentioned southern areas back across
a larger portion of the region. This shift looks to start late
Sunday into early Monday as the Pacific moisture overpowers the
arctic air. Both the GFS and Euro depict the moist air overrunning
the cold air in place allowing for what currently looks to be a
widespread snow event. This could potentially mark the first
significant snow event for many valley locations. Confidence is
moderate at this point as their is good model agreement in the
overall pattern and both would support a temperature profile for
snow for the majority. The one thing to watch would be the amount
of warm air that enters. Currently the GFS is quite cold at the
surface with wetbulb zero temps are well below zero for all of the
region. The Euro brings a good surge of warm air Monday that could
lead to a switch to rain for the LC Valley, the southern Basin and
portions of the Palouse. With models diverging at this point I
went for a compromise leaving snow for most with a mix in the
lowest southern valleys. How long the snow will last or how much
each area receives is currently still in the air as models are
wavering a bit. A lot of this will depend on the strength of a
ridge in the central part of the country determining which areas
see the best QPF amounts. The exact details of this will have to
wait, but for now many areas could get a good taste of winter.
/Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
00z TAFS: We are expecting the steady precipitation to begin
moving north through the forecast area this evening. Snow levels
will keep the precipitation at the TAF sites as rain.
However...expect moderate snow for a few hours for the northern
valleys including the Okanogan and Methow valleys through 12z. The
boundary layer will remain saturated and will support stratus and
some fog formation for the TAF sites with conditions wildly
fluctuating between MVFR to VFR/LIFR and back as bands of
precipitation move in and out of areas. Tobin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        37  48  42  49  40  45 / 100  40  30  20  30  70
Coeur d`Alene  36  48  41  47  40  44 / 100  80  50  50  30  80
Pullman        42  54  44  52  42  48 / 100  20  20  10  30  80
Lewiston       44  59  47  55  45  52 /  90  10  10  10  30  70
Colville       33  45  39  45  38  42 / 100  70  60  40  40  70
Sandpoint      33  44  38  43  37  41 / 100 100  70  60  60  80
Kellogg        35  43  40  42  38  39 / 100  90  60  60  60  90
Moses Lake     39  54  44  54  40  51 /  60   0  10  10  20  30
Wenatchee      37  51  42  50  41  46 /  40  10  20  10  40  30
Omak           33  44  38  44  35  41 /  90  60  30  20  50  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northern
     Panhandle.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northeast
     Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Okanogan
     Valley.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 260041
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
441 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and wet conditions will continue through Thursday. Snow
levels will be on the rise tonight...but expect some
accumulations for the areas near the Canadian border through
morning. Thanksgiving will be breezy...wet and continued warm.
Then a colder weather pattern is expected for the holiday weekend
with the mountains receiving several rounds of snow. Snow levels
will fall to valley floors by the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update...Snow levels are slower to rise for the Okanogan valley
and the Methow valley than previously thought. Observers are
indicating localized moderate to heavy snow. As such a winter
weather advisory for snow has been issued for these locations.

Tonight and Wednesday...The ridge of high pressure that built
into the region on Monday and overnight was pushed down by a short
wave disturbance moving over the top of the ridge this morning.
This did two things, first it pushed the moisture further south
over the southern zones today and second it allowed cooler and
drier air to filter into the northern valleys. For tonight and
Wednesday that front will push back to the north. This will
increase the precipitation potential across the northern zones and
begin to dry conditions out across the southern east slopes...the
basin and portions of the WA Palouse.

*Precipitation: Yes and plenty of it outside the Columbia basin
 and lower east slopes. The lower elevations will likely see .10
 to .20...the northern mountains from a quarter to a half
 inch...the Panhandle mountains from a half to just under an
 inch...and for the Cascades anywhere from about half inch to
 almost 2 inches.

*Snow levels: Currently snow levels are pretty high over the
 forecast area...between 4k-5k feet and with additional warm air
 advection they should remain high. So precipitation will be as
 rain. The exception will be across the northern mountains and
 dropping south along the Panhandle and the Okanogan and Methow
 valleys where the cooler and drier air has moved in. Many of the
 valley locations will most likely wet-bulb (evaporative cooling)
 to right around freezing and the some of the valleys up near the
 Canadian border may see wet snow accumulation of 1-3 inches
 overnight. The mountain will locally pick up 5-8 additional
 inches. So the Winter Weather advisory will be extended through
 Wednesday morning and issued down to the valley floor. A bigger
 challenge will be Shoshone county. For the most part snow levels
 are above 4-4.5k feet. A nose of cooler air has remained in the
 vicinity of Lookout Pass. I has been snowing up there all day and
 new guidance indicates that snow level for that area will not
 rise above Pass level until after 12z so that advisory will also
 be extended...but mainly for the Look Out pass area.

*Temperatures and Winds: Temperatures will remain mild through the night
 with highs on Wednesday in the 40s and 50s. Winds will increase
 through the night out of the Southwest 10-20 mph with gusts to 25
 mph. Tobin

Wednesday night through Friday night...An active and mostly wet
rather than white period is in store for this time frame. Pacific
satellite reveals a nearly stationary closed low way off the
Pacific coast in the southern Gulf of Alaska with an upper level
ridge ahead of it. Models are in good agreement and consistent
over previous runs in keeping this low offshore...but the issue
will be interplay between a currently ill defined short wave
dropping down the coast of the Alaska Panhandle right now...and
the deep fetch of subtropical moisture feeding ahead of the
Pacific closed low. The descending wave will flatten the current
ridge and direct the moisture feed directly into the forecast
area beginning Wednesday night and continuing through Friday
evening. Finally by late Friday night another shot of very dry
modified arctic air will be drawn into the region behind the
passage of the northern wave. The GFS model is more aggressive
with the evolution while the EC is slower. The ECMWF appears to be
more consistent over a series of previous runs and this model was
used as the basis for the forecast.

All of this reasoning adds up to a wet forecast as the moisture
plume feeds into the region...but there will likely be a
perceptible rain shadow in the Cascades Lee as the mid level flow
remains westerly...but this will also enhance precipitation into
the Idaho Panhandle and northeast Washington mountains. Snow
levels will stay very high in the warm advection pattern ahead of
the swooping coastal short wave. The best chance for a back fill
into the basin of significant rain will be on Friday as the main
fetch is enhanced along the cold front leading edge of the the
arctic air. Storm total precipitation totals through this 48 hour
period will range from upwards of 2 inches on the high Cascades
and northeast mountains (although much of this above 6000 feet
will be locked up as snow) to 1/2 to 1 inch of rain in the
valleys of these regions...to 1/2 to 3/4 of and inch of rain over
the rising terrain of the east basin and a tenth or two in the
deep basin.

Persistently breezy and potentially gusty southwest winds will
also characterize this period...with all models indicating a
slowly drifting but strengthening surface low pressure over
southern British Columbia promoting a tight southerly gradient
over the forecast area with a strong potential of mixing stronger
winds aloft down to the surface during the daylight periods.

Snow levels will crash Friday night from north to south...but by
this time the air mass will be aggressively drying out with the
only significant accumulations expected in the Idaho Panhandle
mountains above 3000 feet or so.

So...in general a raw...windy and wet pattern with relatively mild
temperatures is expected through Friday with a stark cooling trend
Friday night. /Fugazzi

Saturday through Tuesday: Period looks to have a variety of
weather including both periods of both dry and wet conditions.
We will start the weekend off with a continental polar front
dropping out of Canada ushering in much colder and drier air to
the region. This will bring an end to the precipitation chances
quickly for the north and central portions of the area as
dewpoints drop to the floor and skies begin to clear from north to
south. As the colder air rushes in, we may have the chance for
some snowfall especially in the southern portions of the forecast
area Saturday as enough moisture remains to promote rain and/or
snow. The set up is similar to an event we saw earlier this year
as the cold polar air will be battling the moist Pacific air and
along the boundary is where the best precip chances will be. For
the weekend it looks to stay in far southern WA, the southern
Panhandle and mainly Oregon. As the cold air advects in from the
north we will also see our winds increase as cold air advection
coupled with the downsloping topography of the region supports it.
The winds are something that will have to be further examined to
get a better idea of the magnitude we could be looking at. Usually
with cold air intrusions such as this we see pretty good amounts
of wind especially though the Purcell trench, the Okanogan valley
and also in the West Plains and Columbia Basin.

Now we will move to the more exciting part of the forecast as the
moisture tap shifts from the mentioned southern areas back across
a larger portion of the region. This shift looks to start late
Sunday into early Monday as the Pacific moisture overpowers the
arctic air. Both the GFS and Euro depict the moist air overrunning
the cold air in place allowing for what currently looks to be a
widespread snow event. This could potentially mark the first
significant snow event for many valley locations. Confidence is
moderate at this point as their is good model agreement in the
overall pattern and both would support a temperature profile for
snow for the majority. The one thing to watch would be the amount
of warm air that enters. Currently the GFS is quite cold at the
surface with wetbulb zero temps are well below zero for all of the
region. The Euro brings a good surge of warm air Monday that could
lead to a switch to rain for the LC Valley, the southern Basin and
portions of the Palouse. With models diverging at this point I
went for a compromise leaving snow for most with a mix in the
lowest southern valleys. How long the snow will last or how much
each area receives is currently still in the air as models are
wavering a bit. A lot of this will depend on the strength of a
ridge in the central part of the country determining which areas
see the best QPF amounts. The exact details of this will have to
wait, but for now many areas could get a good taste of winter.
/Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
00z TAFS: We are expecting the steady precipitation to begin
moving north through the forecast area this evening. Snow levels
will keep the precipitation at the TAF sites as rain.
However...expect moderate snow for a few hours for the northern
valleys including the Okanogan and Methow valleys through 12z. The
boundary layer will remain saturated and will support stratus and
some fog formation for the TAF sites with conditions wildly
fluctuating between MVFR to VFR/LIFR and back as bands of
precipitation move in and out of areas. Tobin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        37  48  42  49  40  45 / 100  40  30  20  30  70
Coeur d`Alene  36  48  41  47  40  44 / 100  80  50  50  30  80
Pullman        42  54  44  52  42  48 / 100  20  20  10  30  80
Lewiston       44  59  47  55  45  52 /  90  10  10  10  30  70
Colville       33  45  39  45  38  42 / 100  70  60  40  40  70
Sandpoint      33  44  38  43  37  41 / 100 100  70  60  60  80
Kellogg        35  43  40  42  38  39 / 100  90  60  60  60  90
Moses Lake     39  54  44  54  40  51 /  60   0  10  10  20  30
Wenatchee      37  51  42  50  41  46 /  40  10  20  10  40  30
Omak           33  44  38  44  35  41 /  90  60  30  20  50  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northern
     Panhandle.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northeast
     Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Okanogan
     Valley.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 260014
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
414 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN AT TIMES OVER THE NORTH PART AND
RAIN LIKELY ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. RAIN WILL DIMINISH WITH JUST A CHANCE
OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON
THANKSGIVING DAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
THEN CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COOL DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER
WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS MAY
BRING A LITTLE RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE WARM FRONT OVER W WA LOOKS LIKE IT HAS FINALLY
MOVED UP NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS RAIN
IS CONCENTRATED UP OVER WHATCOM COUNTY AND THE N CASCADES. HOWEVER W
FLOW IS STILL BRINGING SOME OROGRAPHIC RAIN TO THE REST OF THE W
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
THE BORDER TONIGHT BRINGING RAIN TO THE FAR NORTHERN LOWLANDS AND
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE N CASCADES. A LITTLE LIGHT
RAIN IS LIKELY OVER THE REST OF THE W WA LOWLANDS TONIGHT WITH
BREEZY S WINDS.

WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A LULL DAY WITH A WEAKER WARM FRONT STILL
UP OVER SOUTHERN B.C. AND THE NEXT FRONT STILL OFFSHORE. IR IMAGERY
SHOWS THIS OFFSHORE FRONT ALONG 140W NEAR THE MAIN LOW NEAR
40N/148W. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THIS FRONT ACROSS W
WA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BESIDES ANOTHER INCREASE IN RAIN...THE STRONG SW
LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE OLYMPICS AND N CASCADES. 3-5 INCHES OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...OR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. THIS MEANS
RAIN AT TIMES AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE LOWLANDS FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY...AND POTENTIALLY MORE RIVER FLOODING FOR N
CASCADES RIVERS AND POSSIBLY SOME OLYMPIC RIVERS.

THE OLD WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN B.C. WILL MOVE BACK SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...BEING PUSHED ALONG BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN N FLOW ALOFT OVER AK AND NORTHERN B.C.  THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT FROM N TO S ACROSS W WA ON
FRIDAY...WITH RAIN ENDING AND CLEARING FROM THE N. COLD NE FRASER
RIVER OUTFLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT BRINGING A COLD DRY AIR MASS AND BREEZY WINDS TO W WA.
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S. KAM

.LONG TERM...BASED ON AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WERE CLEARED OUT AND THE MENTION OF RAIN
DROPPED...EXCEPT FOR THE S PART LATE SUNDAY. WITH COOL DRY N FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND COLD DRY NE FLOW FROM THE FRASER
VALLEY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...TEMPERATURES COOL...AND N-NE
WINDS BREEZY. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS STILL RATHER LOW...AND THE 18Z
GFS HAS JUST REVERSED COURSE AND BRINGS RAIN UP FROM OREGON ON
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT SO REMAINS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION. THE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE AND RAIN NORTHWARD FROM OREGON
SUNDAY NIGHT.  WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER W WA THERE MAY BE A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES AS
THE PRECIP MOVES NORTH. SO FAR THIS IS NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE
FORECASTS AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-EVALUATED ONCE MODEL CONSISTENCY
AND AGREEMENT IMPROVES. KAM

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES WILL RESULT IN
FLOODING ON SEVERAL RIVERS. IN PARTICULAR THE PUYALLUP AT ORTING HAS
REACHED MAJOR FLOOD STAGE. WITH THE WARM FRONT SHIFTING NORTH TO
NEAR CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES HAS
DIMINISHED.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN TO THE N CASCADES
TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING A BIT MORE AND SHIFTING A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH OVER SOUTHERN B.C.  WEDNESDAY WILL BE A LULL DAY WITH RAIN
CONTINUING OVER THE N CASCADES...BUT NOT HEAVY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN HIGH...6000-7000 FEET TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MORE HEAVY RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. STRONG SW LOW LEVEL
FLOW...45-55 KT...WILL IMPACT THE OLYMPICS AND N CASCADES FROM
SNOQUALMIE PASS NORTHWARD. 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE DURING
THIS PERIOD WHICH MAY DRIVE SOME OF THE NORTHERN CASCADES RIVERS TO
FLOOD STAGE ON THURSDAY...INCLUDING THE NOOKSACK...SKAGIT...
STILLAGUAMISH AND SNOQUALMIE/SNOHOMISH BASINS. A FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THIS. RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE OLYMPICS MAY ALSO
REACH FLOOD STAGE...MOST NOTABLY THE SKOKOMISH AND POSSIBLY THE
BOGACHIEL. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER...IN THE 5500 TO 6500
FOOT RANGE.

THE RAIN WILL END LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL
PUGET SOUND AREA THIS AFTERNOON SLOWLY MOVES NORTH INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA TONIGHT. IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN STUBBORN
TO IMPROVE NORTH OF THE FRONT TODAY...BUT AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO LOW END MVFR AT LEAST...1-2K FT...AND
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO 4-6SM BR. LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

KSEA...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM THE CURRENT IFR TO LOW END
MVFR AROUND 00Z AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES NORTH PAST THE TERMINAL.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 10-14KT BEHIND THE FRONT ABOUT
00Z. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT OVER CENTRAL PUGET SOUND THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
STRENGTH WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST.
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER MOST
WATERS WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THE COAST AND OVER EXPOSED INLAND
AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST...THE
STRAIT ENTRANCES...AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG FRASER OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE OTHER WATERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT EAST ENTRANCE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
     GALE WATCH COAST...ENTRANCES...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KSEW 260014
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
414 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN AT TIMES OVER THE NORTH PART AND
RAIN LIKELY ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. RAIN WILL DIMINISH WITH JUST A CHANCE
OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON
THANKSGIVING DAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
THEN CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COOL DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER
WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS MAY
BRING A LITTLE RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE WARM FRONT OVER W WA LOOKS LIKE IT HAS FINALLY
MOVED UP NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS RAIN
IS CONCENTRATED UP OVER WHATCOM COUNTY AND THE N CASCADES. HOWEVER W
FLOW IS STILL BRINGING SOME OROGRAPHIC RAIN TO THE REST OF THE W
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
THE BORDER TONIGHT BRINGING RAIN TO THE FAR NORTHERN LOWLANDS AND
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE N CASCADES. A LITTLE LIGHT
RAIN IS LIKELY OVER THE REST OF THE W WA LOWLANDS TONIGHT WITH
BREEZY S WINDS.

WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A LULL DAY WITH A WEAKER WARM FRONT STILL
UP OVER SOUTHERN B.C. AND THE NEXT FRONT STILL OFFSHORE. IR IMAGERY
SHOWS THIS OFFSHORE FRONT ALONG 140W NEAR THE MAIN LOW NEAR
40N/148W. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THIS FRONT ACROSS W
WA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BESIDES ANOTHER INCREASE IN RAIN...THE STRONG SW
LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE OLYMPICS AND N CASCADES. 3-5 INCHES OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...OR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. THIS MEANS
RAIN AT TIMES AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE LOWLANDS FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY...AND POTENTIALLY MORE RIVER FLOODING FOR N
CASCADES RIVERS AND POSSIBLY SOME OLYMPIC RIVERS.

THE OLD WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN B.C. WILL MOVE BACK SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...BEING PUSHED ALONG BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN N FLOW ALOFT OVER AK AND NORTHERN B.C.  THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT FROM N TO S ACROSS W WA ON
FRIDAY...WITH RAIN ENDING AND CLEARING FROM THE N. COLD NE FRASER
RIVER OUTFLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT BRINGING A COLD DRY AIR MASS AND BREEZY WINDS TO W WA.
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S. KAM

.LONG TERM...BASED ON AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WERE CLEARED OUT AND THE MENTION OF RAIN
DROPPED...EXCEPT FOR THE S PART LATE SUNDAY. WITH COOL DRY N FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND COLD DRY NE FLOW FROM THE FRASER
VALLEY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...TEMPERATURES COOL...AND N-NE
WINDS BREEZY. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS STILL RATHER LOW...AND THE 18Z
GFS HAS JUST REVERSED COURSE AND BRINGS RAIN UP FROM OREGON ON
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT SO REMAINS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION. THE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE AND RAIN NORTHWARD FROM OREGON
SUNDAY NIGHT.  WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER W WA THERE MAY BE A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES AS
THE PRECIP MOVES NORTH. SO FAR THIS IS NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE
FORECASTS AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-EVALUATED ONCE MODEL CONSISTENCY
AND AGREEMENT IMPROVES. KAM

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES WILL RESULT IN
FLOODING ON SEVERAL RIVERS. IN PARTICULAR THE PUYALLUP AT ORTING HAS
REACHED MAJOR FLOOD STAGE. WITH THE WARM FRONT SHIFTING NORTH TO
NEAR CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES HAS
DIMINISHED.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN TO THE N CASCADES
TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING A BIT MORE AND SHIFTING A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH OVER SOUTHERN B.C.  WEDNESDAY WILL BE A LULL DAY WITH RAIN
CONTINUING OVER THE N CASCADES...BUT NOT HEAVY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN HIGH...6000-7000 FEET TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MORE HEAVY RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. STRONG SW LOW LEVEL
FLOW...45-55 KT...WILL IMPACT THE OLYMPICS AND N CASCADES FROM
SNOQUALMIE PASS NORTHWARD. 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE DURING
THIS PERIOD WHICH MAY DRIVE SOME OF THE NORTHERN CASCADES RIVERS TO
FLOOD STAGE ON THURSDAY...INCLUDING THE NOOKSACK...SKAGIT...
STILLAGUAMISH AND SNOQUALMIE/SNOHOMISH BASINS. A FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THIS. RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE OLYMPICS MAY ALSO
REACH FLOOD STAGE...MOST NOTABLY THE SKOKOMISH AND POSSIBLY THE
BOGACHIEL. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER...IN THE 5500 TO 6500
FOOT RANGE.

THE RAIN WILL END LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL
PUGET SOUND AREA THIS AFTERNOON SLOWLY MOVES NORTH INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA TONIGHT. IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN STUBBORN
TO IMPROVE NORTH OF THE FRONT TODAY...BUT AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO LOW END MVFR AT LEAST...1-2K FT...AND
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO 4-6SM BR. LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

KSEA...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM THE CURRENT IFR TO LOW END
MVFR AROUND 00Z AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES NORTH PAST THE TERMINAL.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 10-14KT BEHIND THE FRONT ABOUT
00Z. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT OVER CENTRAL PUGET SOUND THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
STRENGTH WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST.
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER MOST
WATERS WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THE COAST AND OVER EXPOSED INLAND
AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST...THE
STRAIT ENTRANCES...AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG FRASER OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE OTHER WATERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT EAST ENTRANCE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
     GALE WATCH COAST...ENTRANCES...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KSEW 260014
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
414 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN AT TIMES OVER THE NORTH PART AND
RAIN LIKELY ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. RAIN WILL DIMINISH WITH JUST A CHANCE
OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON
THANKSGIVING DAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
THEN CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COOL DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER
WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS MAY
BRING A LITTLE RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE WARM FRONT OVER W WA LOOKS LIKE IT HAS FINALLY
MOVED UP NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS RAIN
IS CONCENTRATED UP OVER WHATCOM COUNTY AND THE N CASCADES. HOWEVER W
FLOW IS STILL BRINGING SOME OROGRAPHIC RAIN TO THE REST OF THE W
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
THE BORDER TONIGHT BRINGING RAIN TO THE FAR NORTHERN LOWLANDS AND
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE N CASCADES. A LITTLE LIGHT
RAIN IS LIKELY OVER THE REST OF THE W WA LOWLANDS TONIGHT WITH
BREEZY S WINDS.

WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A LULL DAY WITH A WEAKER WARM FRONT STILL
UP OVER SOUTHERN B.C. AND THE NEXT FRONT STILL OFFSHORE. IR IMAGERY
SHOWS THIS OFFSHORE FRONT ALONG 140W NEAR THE MAIN LOW NEAR
40N/148W. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THIS FRONT ACROSS W
WA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BESIDES ANOTHER INCREASE IN RAIN...THE STRONG SW
LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE OLYMPICS AND N CASCADES. 3-5 INCHES OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...OR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. THIS MEANS
RAIN AT TIMES AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE LOWLANDS FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY...AND POTENTIALLY MORE RIVER FLOODING FOR N
CASCADES RIVERS AND POSSIBLY SOME OLYMPIC RIVERS.

THE OLD WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN B.C. WILL MOVE BACK SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...BEING PUSHED ALONG BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN N FLOW ALOFT OVER AK AND NORTHERN B.C.  THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT FROM N TO S ACROSS W WA ON
FRIDAY...WITH RAIN ENDING AND CLEARING FROM THE N. COLD NE FRASER
RIVER OUTFLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT BRINGING A COLD DRY AIR MASS AND BREEZY WINDS TO W WA.
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S. KAM

.LONG TERM...BASED ON AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WERE CLEARED OUT AND THE MENTION OF RAIN
DROPPED...EXCEPT FOR THE S PART LATE SUNDAY. WITH COOL DRY N FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND COLD DRY NE FLOW FROM THE FRASER
VALLEY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...TEMPERATURES COOL...AND N-NE
WINDS BREEZY. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS STILL RATHER LOW...AND THE 18Z
GFS HAS JUST REVERSED COURSE AND BRINGS RAIN UP FROM OREGON ON
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT SO REMAINS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION. THE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE AND RAIN NORTHWARD FROM OREGON
SUNDAY NIGHT.  WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER W WA THERE MAY BE A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES AS
THE PRECIP MOVES NORTH. SO FAR THIS IS NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE
FORECASTS AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-EVALUATED ONCE MODEL CONSISTENCY
AND AGREEMENT IMPROVES. KAM

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES WILL RESULT IN
FLOODING ON SEVERAL RIVERS. IN PARTICULAR THE PUYALLUP AT ORTING HAS
REACHED MAJOR FLOOD STAGE. WITH THE WARM FRONT SHIFTING NORTH TO
NEAR CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES HAS
DIMINISHED.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN TO THE N CASCADES
TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING A BIT MORE AND SHIFTING A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH OVER SOUTHERN B.C.  WEDNESDAY WILL BE A LULL DAY WITH RAIN
CONTINUING OVER THE N CASCADES...BUT NOT HEAVY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN HIGH...6000-7000 FEET TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MORE HEAVY RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. STRONG SW LOW LEVEL
FLOW...45-55 KT...WILL IMPACT THE OLYMPICS AND N CASCADES FROM
SNOQUALMIE PASS NORTHWARD. 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE DURING
THIS PERIOD WHICH MAY DRIVE SOME OF THE NORTHERN CASCADES RIVERS TO
FLOOD STAGE ON THURSDAY...INCLUDING THE NOOKSACK...SKAGIT...
STILLAGUAMISH AND SNOQUALMIE/SNOHOMISH BASINS. A FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THIS. RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE OLYMPICS MAY ALSO
REACH FLOOD STAGE...MOST NOTABLY THE SKOKOMISH AND POSSIBLY THE
BOGACHIEL. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER...IN THE 5500 TO 6500
FOOT RANGE.

THE RAIN WILL END LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL
PUGET SOUND AREA THIS AFTERNOON SLOWLY MOVES NORTH INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA TONIGHT. IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN STUBBORN
TO IMPROVE NORTH OF THE FRONT TODAY...BUT AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO LOW END MVFR AT LEAST...1-2K FT...AND
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO 4-6SM BR. LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

KSEA...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM THE CURRENT IFR TO LOW END
MVFR AROUND 00Z AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES NORTH PAST THE TERMINAL.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 10-14KT BEHIND THE FRONT ABOUT
00Z. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT OVER CENTRAL PUGET SOUND THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
STRENGTH WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST.
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER MOST
WATERS WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THE COAST AND OVER EXPOSED INLAND
AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST...THE
STRAIT ENTRANCES...AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG FRASER OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE OTHER WATERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT EAST ENTRANCE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
     GALE WATCH COAST...ENTRANCES...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KSEW 260014
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
414 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN AT TIMES OVER THE NORTH PART AND
RAIN LIKELY ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. RAIN WILL DIMINISH WITH JUST A CHANCE
OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON
THANKSGIVING DAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
THEN CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COOL DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER
WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS MAY
BRING A LITTLE RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE WARM FRONT OVER W WA LOOKS LIKE IT HAS FINALLY
MOVED UP NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS RAIN
IS CONCENTRATED UP OVER WHATCOM COUNTY AND THE N CASCADES. HOWEVER W
FLOW IS STILL BRINGING SOME OROGRAPHIC RAIN TO THE REST OF THE W
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
THE BORDER TONIGHT BRINGING RAIN TO THE FAR NORTHERN LOWLANDS AND
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE N CASCADES. A LITTLE LIGHT
RAIN IS LIKELY OVER THE REST OF THE W WA LOWLANDS TONIGHT WITH
BREEZY S WINDS.

WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A LULL DAY WITH A WEAKER WARM FRONT STILL
UP OVER SOUTHERN B.C. AND THE NEXT FRONT STILL OFFSHORE. IR IMAGERY
SHOWS THIS OFFSHORE FRONT ALONG 140W NEAR THE MAIN LOW NEAR
40N/148W. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THIS FRONT ACROSS W
WA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BESIDES ANOTHER INCREASE IN RAIN...THE STRONG SW
LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE OLYMPICS AND N CASCADES. 3-5 INCHES OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...OR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. THIS MEANS
RAIN AT TIMES AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE LOWLANDS FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY...AND POTENTIALLY MORE RIVER FLOODING FOR N
CASCADES RIVERS AND POSSIBLY SOME OLYMPIC RIVERS.

THE OLD WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN B.C. WILL MOVE BACK SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...BEING PUSHED ALONG BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN N FLOW ALOFT OVER AK AND NORTHERN B.C.  THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT FROM N TO S ACROSS W WA ON
FRIDAY...WITH RAIN ENDING AND CLEARING FROM THE N. COLD NE FRASER
RIVER OUTFLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT BRINGING A COLD DRY AIR MASS AND BREEZY WINDS TO W WA.
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S. KAM

.LONG TERM...BASED ON AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WERE CLEARED OUT AND THE MENTION OF RAIN
DROPPED...EXCEPT FOR THE S PART LATE SUNDAY. WITH COOL DRY N FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND COLD DRY NE FLOW FROM THE FRASER
VALLEY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...TEMPERATURES COOL...AND N-NE
WINDS BREEZY. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS STILL RATHER LOW...AND THE 18Z
GFS HAS JUST REVERSED COURSE AND BRINGS RAIN UP FROM OREGON ON
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT SO REMAINS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION. THE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE AND RAIN NORTHWARD FROM OREGON
SUNDAY NIGHT.  WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER W WA THERE MAY BE A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES AS
THE PRECIP MOVES NORTH. SO FAR THIS IS NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE
FORECASTS AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-EVALUATED ONCE MODEL CONSISTENCY
AND AGREEMENT IMPROVES. KAM

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES WILL RESULT IN
FLOODING ON SEVERAL RIVERS. IN PARTICULAR THE PUYALLUP AT ORTING HAS
REACHED MAJOR FLOOD STAGE. WITH THE WARM FRONT SHIFTING NORTH TO
NEAR CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES HAS
DIMINISHED.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN TO THE N CASCADES
TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING A BIT MORE AND SHIFTING A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH OVER SOUTHERN B.C.  WEDNESDAY WILL BE A LULL DAY WITH RAIN
CONTINUING OVER THE N CASCADES...BUT NOT HEAVY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN HIGH...6000-7000 FEET TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MORE HEAVY RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. STRONG SW LOW LEVEL
FLOW...45-55 KT...WILL IMPACT THE OLYMPICS AND N CASCADES FROM
SNOQUALMIE PASS NORTHWARD. 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE DURING
THIS PERIOD WHICH MAY DRIVE SOME OF THE NORTHERN CASCADES RIVERS TO
FLOOD STAGE ON THURSDAY...INCLUDING THE NOOKSACK...SKAGIT...
STILLAGUAMISH AND SNOQUALMIE/SNOHOMISH BASINS. A FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THIS. RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE OLYMPICS MAY ALSO
REACH FLOOD STAGE...MOST NOTABLY THE SKOKOMISH AND POSSIBLY THE
BOGACHIEL. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER...IN THE 5500 TO 6500
FOOT RANGE.

THE RAIN WILL END LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL
PUGET SOUND AREA THIS AFTERNOON SLOWLY MOVES NORTH INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA TONIGHT. IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN STUBBORN
TO IMPROVE NORTH OF THE FRONT TODAY...BUT AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO LOW END MVFR AT LEAST...1-2K FT...AND
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO 4-6SM BR. LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

KSEA...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM THE CURRENT IFR TO LOW END
MVFR AROUND 00Z AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES NORTH PAST THE TERMINAL.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 10-14KT BEHIND THE FRONT ABOUT
00Z. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT OVER CENTRAL PUGET SOUND THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
STRENGTH WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST.
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER MOST
WATERS WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THE COAST AND OVER EXPOSED INLAND
AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST...THE
STRAIT ENTRANCES...AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG FRASER OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE OTHER WATERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT EAST ENTRANCE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
     GALE WATCH COAST...ENTRANCES...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KOTX 252230
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
230 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and wet conditions will continue through Thursday. Snow
levels will be on the rise tonight...but expect some
accumulations for the areas near the Canadian border through
morning. Thanksgiving will be breezy...wet and continued warm.
Then a colder weather pattern is expected for the holiday weekend
with the mountains receiving several rounds of snow. Snow levels
will fall to valley floors by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Wednesday...The ridge of high pressure that built into
the region on Monday and overnight was pushed down by a short
wave disturbance moving over the top of the ridge this morning.
This did two things, first it pushed the moisture further south
over the southern zones today and second it allowed cooler and
drier air to filter into the northern valleys. For tonight and
Wednesday that front will push back to the north. This will
increase the precipitation potential across the northern zones and
begin to dry conditions out across the southern east slopes...the
basin and portions of the WA Palouse.

*Precipitation: Yes and plenty of it outside the Columbia basin
 and lower east slopes. The lower elevations will likely see .10
 to .20...the northern mountains from a quarter to a half
 inch...the Panhandle mountains from a half to just under an
 inch...and for the Cascades anywhere from about half inch to
 almost 2 inches.

*Snow levels: Currently snow levels are pretty high over the forecast
 area...between 4k-5k feet and with additional warm air advection
 they should remain high. So precipitation will be as rain. The
 exception will be across the northern mountains and dropping
 south along the Panhandle where the cooler and drier air moved
 in. Many of the valley locations will most likely wet-bulb
 (evaporative cooling) to right around freezing and the some of
 the valleys up near the Canadian border may see wet snow
 accumulation of 1-3 inches overnight. The mountain will locally
 pick up 5-8 additional inches. So the Winter Weather advisory
 will be extended through Wednesday morning and issued down to the
 valley floor. A bigger challenge will be Shoshone county. For the
 most part snow levels are above 4-4.5k feet. A nose of cooler air
 has remained in the vicinity of Lookout Pass. I has been snowing
 up there all day and new guidance indicates that snow level for
 that area will not rise above Pass level until after 12z so that
 advisory will also be extended...but mainly for the Look Out pass
 area.

*Temperatures and Winds: Temperatures will remain mild through the night
 with highs on Wednesday in the 40s and 50s. Winds will increase
 through the night out of the Southwest 10-20 mph with gusts to 25
 mph. Tobin

Wednesday night through Friday night...An active and mostly wet
rather than white period is in store for this time frame. Pacific
satellite reveals a nearly stationary closed low way off the
Pacific coast in the southern Gulf of Alaska with an upper level
ridge ahead of it. Models are in good agreement and consistent
over previous runs in keeping this low offshore...but the issue
will be interplay between a currently ill defined short wave
dropping down the coast of the Alaska Panhandle right now...and
the deep fetch of subtropical moisture feeding ahead of the
Pacific closed low. The descending wave will flatten the current
ridge and direct the moisture feed directly into the forecast
area beginning Wednesday night and continuing through Friday
evening. Finally by late Friday night another shot of very dry
modified arctic air will be drawn into the region behind the
passage of the northern wave. The GFS model is more aggressive
with the evolution while the EC is slower. The ECMWF appears to be
more consistent over a series of previous runs and this model was
used as the basis for the forecast.

All of this reasoning adds up to a wet forecast as the moisture
plume feeds into the region...but there will likely be a
perceptible rain shadow in the Cascades Lee as the mid level flow
remains westerly...but this will also enhance precipitation into
the Idaho Panhandle and northeast Washington mountains. Snow
levels will stay very high in the warm advection pattern ahead of
the swooping coastal short wave. The best chance for a back fill
into the basin of significant rain will be on Friday as the main
fetch is enhanced along the cold front leading edge of the the
arctic air. Storm total precipitation totals through this 48 hour
period will range from upwards of 2 inches on the high Cascades
and northeast mountains (although much of this above 6000 feet
will be locked up as snow) to 1/2 to 1 inch of rain in the
valleys of these regions...to 1/2 to 3/4 of and inch of rain over
the rising terrain of the east basin and a tenth or two in the
deep basin.

Persistently breezy and potentially gusty southwest winds will
also characterize this period...with all models indicating a
slowly drifting but strengthening surface low pressure over
southern British Columbia promoting a tight southerly gradient
over the forecast area with a strong potential of mixing stronger
winds aloft down to the surface during the daylight periods.

Snow levels will crash Friday night from north to south...but by
this time the air mass will be aggressively drying out with the
only significant accumulations expected in the Idaho Panhandle
mountains above 3000 feet or so.

So...in general a raw...windy and wet pattern with relatively mild
temperatures is expected through Friday with a stark cooling trend
Friday night. /Fugazzi

Saturday through Tuesday: Period looks to have a variety of
weather including both periods of both dry and wet conditions.
We will start the weekend off with a continental polar front
dropping out of Canada ushering in much colder and drier air to
the region. This will bring an end to the precipitation chances
quickly for the north and central portions of the area as
dewpoints drop to the floor and skies begin to clear from north to
south. As the colder air rushes in, we may have the chance for
some snowfall especially in the southern portions of the forecast
area Saturday as enough moisture remains to promote rain and/or
snow. The set up is similar to an event we saw earlier this year
as the cold polar air will be battling the moist Pacific air and
along the boundary is where the best precip chances will be. For
the weekend it looks to stay in far southern WA, the southern
Panhandle and mainly Oregon. As the cold air advects in from the
north we will also see our winds increase as cold air advection
coupled with the downsloping topography of the region supports it.
The winds are something that will have to be further examined to
get a better idea of the magnitude we could be looking at. Usually
with cold air intrusions such as this we see pretty good amounts
of wind especially though the Purcell trench, the Okanogan valley
and also in the West Plains and Columbia Basin.

Now we will move to the more exciting part of the forecast as the
moisture tap shifts from the mentioned southern areas back across
a larger portion of the region. This shift looks to start late
Sunday into early Monday as the Pacific moisture overpowers the
arctic air. Both the GFS and Euro depict the moist air overrunning
the cold air in place allowing for what currently looks to be a
widespread snow event. This could potentially mark the first
significant snow event for many valley locations. Confidence is
moderate at this point as their is good model agreement in the
overall pattern and both would support a temperature profile for
snow for the majority. The one thing to watch would be the amount
of warm air that enters. Currently the GFS is quite cold at the
surface with wetbulb zero temps are well below zero for all of the
region. The Euro brings a good surge of warm air Monday that could
lead to a switch to rain for the LC Valley, the southern Basin and
portions of the Palouse. With models diverging at this point I
went for a compromise leaving snow for most with a mix in the
lowest southern valleys. How long the snow will last or how much
each area receives is currently still in the air as models are
wavering a bit. A lot of this will depend on the strength of a
ridge in the central part of the country determining which areas
see the best QPF amounts. The exact details of this will have to
wait, but for now many areas could get a good taste of winter.
/Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
18z TAFS: Little change to the previous forecast discussion as we
expect a pretty steady rain today south of a line from the north
Cascades to near or just south of Mullan Pass. Expect
precipitation to shift back to the north this evening and
overnight. Snow levels keep precipitation as rain at all TAF
sites. The abundance of moisture will result in stratus and some
fog for the TAF sites with conditions wildly fluctuating between
MVFR to VFR/LIFR and back as bands of heavier precipitation moves
through the region. Southwest winds will be on the increase
overnight with gusts 15-25kts.Tobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        37  48  42  49  40  45 / 100  40  30  20  30  70
Coeur d`Alene  36  48  41  47  40  44 / 100  80  50  50  30  80
Pullman        42  54  44  52  42  48 / 100  20  20  10  30  80
Lewiston       44  59  47  55  45  52 /  90  10  10  10  30  70
Colville       33  45  39  45  38  42 / 100  70  60  40  40  70
Sandpoint      33  44  38  43  37  41 / 100 100  70  60  60  80
Kellogg        35  43  40  42  38  39 / 100  90  60  60  60  90
Moses Lake     39  54  44  54  40  51 /  60   0  10  10  20  30
Wenatchee      37  51  42  50  41  46 /  40  10  20  10  40  30
Omak           33  44  38  44  35  41 /  90  60  30  20  50  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northern
     Panhandle.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northeast
     Mountains.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 252230
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
230 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and wet conditions will continue through Thursday. Snow
levels will be on the rise tonight...but expect some
accumulations for the areas near the Canadian border through
morning. Thanksgiving will be breezy...wet and continued warm.
Then a colder weather pattern is expected for the holiday weekend
with the mountains receiving several rounds of snow. Snow levels
will fall to valley floors by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Wednesday...The ridge of high pressure that built into
the region on Monday and overnight was pushed down by a short
wave disturbance moving over the top of the ridge this morning.
This did two things, first it pushed the moisture further south
over the southern zones today and second it allowed cooler and
drier air to filter into the northern valleys. For tonight and
Wednesday that front will push back to the north. This will
increase the precipitation potential across the northern zones and
begin to dry conditions out across the southern east slopes...the
basin and portions of the WA Palouse.

*Precipitation: Yes and plenty of it outside the Columbia basin
 and lower east slopes. The lower elevations will likely see .10
 to .20...the northern mountains from a quarter to a half
 inch...the Panhandle mountains from a half to just under an
 inch...and for the Cascades anywhere from about half inch to
 almost 2 inches.

*Snow levels: Currently snow levels are pretty high over the forecast
 area...between 4k-5k feet and with additional warm air advection
 they should remain high. So precipitation will be as rain. The
 exception will be across the northern mountains and dropping
 south along the Panhandle where the cooler and drier air moved
 in. Many of the valley locations will most likely wet-bulb
 (evaporative cooling) to right around freezing and the some of
 the valleys up near the Canadian border may see wet snow
 accumulation of 1-3 inches overnight. The mountain will locally
 pick up 5-8 additional inches. So the Winter Weather advisory
 will be extended through Wednesday morning and issued down to the
 valley floor. A bigger challenge will be Shoshone county. For the
 most part snow levels are above 4-4.5k feet. A nose of cooler air
 has remained in the vicinity of Lookout Pass. I has been snowing
 up there all day and new guidance indicates that snow level for
 that area will not rise above Pass level until after 12z so that
 advisory will also be extended...but mainly for the Look Out pass
 area.

*Temperatures and Winds: Temperatures will remain mild through the night
 with highs on Wednesday in the 40s and 50s. Winds will increase
 through the night out of the Southwest 10-20 mph with gusts to 25
 mph. Tobin

Wednesday night through Friday night...An active and mostly wet
rather than white period is in store for this time frame. Pacific
satellite reveals a nearly stationary closed low way off the
Pacific coast in the southern Gulf of Alaska with an upper level
ridge ahead of it. Models are in good agreement and consistent
over previous runs in keeping this low offshore...but the issue
will be interplay between a currently ill defined short wave
dropping down the coast of the Alaska Panhandle right now...and
the deep fetch of subtropical moisture feeding ahead of the
Pacific closed low. The descending wave will flatten the current
ridge and direct the moisture feed directly into the forecast
area beginning Wednesday night and continuing through Friday
evening. Finally by late Friday night another shot of very dry
modified arctic air will be drawn into the region behind the
passage of the northern wave. The GFS model is more aggressive
with the evolution while the EC is slower. The ECMWF appears to be
more consistent over a series of previous runs and this model was
used as the basis for the forecast.

All of this reasoning adds up to a wet forecast as the moisture
plume feeds into the region...but there will likely be a
perceptible rain shadow in the Cascades Lee as the mid level flow
remains westerly...but this will also enhance precipitation into
the Idaho Panhandle and northeast Washington mountains. Snow
levels will stay very high in the warm advection pattern ahead of
the swooping coastal short wave. The best chance for a back fill
into the basin of significant rain will be on Friday as the main
fetch is enhanced along the cold front leading edge of the the
arctic air. Storm total precipitation totals through this 48 hour
period will range from upwards of 2 inches on the high Cascades
and northeast mountains (although much of this above 6000 feet
will be locked up as snow) to 1/2 to 1 inch of rain in the
valleys of these regions...to 1/2 to 3/4 of and inch of rain over
the rising terrain of the east basin and a tenth or two in the
deep basin.

Persistently breezy and potentially gusty southwest winds will
also characterize this period...with all models indicating a
slowly drifting but strengthening surface low pressure over
southern British Columbia promoting a tight southerly gradient
over the forecast area with a strong potential of mixing stronger
winds aloft down to the surface during the daylight periods.

Snow levels will crash Friday night from north to south...but by
this time the air mass will be aggressively drying out with the
only significant accumulations expected in the Idaho Panhandle
mountains above 3000 feet or so.

So...in general a raw...windy and wet pattern with relatively mild
temperatures is expected through Friday with a stark cooling trend
Friday night. /Fugazzi

Saturday through Tuesday: Period looks to have a variety of
weather including both periods of both dry and wet conditions.
We will start the weekend off with a continental polar front
dropping out of Canada ushering in much colder and drier air to
the region. This will bring an end to the precipitation chances
quickly for the north and central portions of the area as
dewpoints drop to the floor and skies begin to clear from north to
south. As the colder air rushes in, we may have the chance for
some snowfall especially in the southern portions of the forecast
area Saturday as enough moisture remains to promote rain and/or
snow. The set up is similar to an event we saw earlier this year
as the cold polar air will be battling the moist Pacific air and
along the boundary is where the best precip chances will be. For
the weekend it looks to stay in far southern WA, the southern
Panhandle and mainly Oregon. As the cold air advects in from the
north we will also see our winds increase as cold air advection
coupled with the downsloping topography of the region supports it.
The winds are something that will have to be further examined to
get a better idea of the magnitude we could be looking at. Usually
with cold air intrusions such as this we see pretty good amounts
of wind especially though the Purcell trench, the Okanogan valley
and also in the West Plains and Columbia Basin.

Now we will move to the more exciting part of the forecast as the
moisture tap shifts from the mentioned southern areas back across
a larger portion of the region. This shift looks to start late
Sunday into early Monday as the Pacific moisture overpowers the
arctic air. Both the GFS and Euro depict the moist air overrunning
the cold air in place allowing for what currently looks to be a
widespread snow event. This could potentially mark the first
significant snow event for many valley locations. Confidence is
moderate at this point as their is good model agreement in the
overall pattern and both would support a temperature profile for
snow for the majority. The one thing to watch would be the amount
of warm air that enters. Currently the GFS is quite cold at the
surface with wetbulb zero temps are well below zero for all of the
region. The Euro brings a good surge of warm air Monday that could
lead to a switch to rain for the LC Valley, the southern Basin and
portions of the Palouse. With models diverging at this point I
went for a compromise leaving snow for most with a mix in the
lowest southern valleys. How long the snow will last or how much
each area receives is currently still in the air as models are
wavering a bit. A lot of this will depend on the strength of a
ridge in the central part of the country determining which areas
see the best QPF amounts. The exact details of this will have to
wait, but for now many areas could get a good taste of winter.
/Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
18z TAFS: Little change to the previous forecast discussion as we
expect a pretty steady rain today south of a line from the north
Cascades to near or just south of Mullan Pass. Expect
precipitation to shift back to the north this evening and
overnight. Snow levels keep precipitation as rain at all TAF
sites. The abundance of moisture will result in stratus and some
fog for the TAF sites with conditions wildly fluctuating between
MVFR to VFR/LIFR and back as bands of heavier precipitation moves
through the region. Southwest winds will be on the increase
overnight with gusts 15-25kts.Tobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        37  48  42  49  40  45 / 100  40  30  20  30  70
Coeur d`Alene  36  48  41  47  40  44 / 100  80  50  50  30  80
Pullman        42  54  44  52  42  48 / 100  20  20  10  30  80
Lewiston       44  59  47  55  45  52 /  90  10  10  10  30  70
Colville       33  45  39  45  38  42 / 100  70  60  40  40  70
Sandpoint      33  44  38  43  37  41 / 100 100  70  60  60  80
Kellogg        35  43  40  42  38  39 / 100  90  60  60  60  90
Moses Lake     39  54  44  54  40  51 /  60   0  10  10  20  30
Wenatchee      37  51  42  50  41  46 /  40  10  20  10  40  30
Omak           33  44  38  44  35  41 /  90  60  30  20  50  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northern
     Panhandle.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northeast
     Mountains.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 252230
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
230 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and wet conditions will continue through Thursday. Snow
levels will be on the rise tonight...but expect some
accumulations for the areas near the Canadian border through
morning. Thanksgiving will be breezy...wet and continued warm.
Then a colder weather pattern is expected for the holiday weekend
with the mountains receiving several rounds of snow. Snow levels
will fall to valley floors by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Wednesday...The ridge of high pressure that built into
the region on Monday and overnight was pushed down by a short
wave disturbance moving over the top of the ridge this morning.
This did two things, first it pushed the moisture further south
over the southern zones today and second it allowed cooler and
drier air to filter into the northern valleys. For tonight and
Wednesday that front will push back to the north. This will
increase the precipitation potential across the northern zones and
begin to dry conditions out across the southern east slopes...the
basin and portions of the WA Palouse.

*Precipitation: Yes and plenty of it outside the Columbia basin
 and lower east slopes. The lower elevations will likely see .10
 to .20...the northern mountains from a quarter to a half
 inch...the Panhandle mountains from a half to just under an
 inch...and for the Cascades anywhere from about half inch to
 almost 2 inches.

*Snow levels: Currently snow levels are pretty high over the forecast
 area...between 4k-5k feet and with additional warm air advection
 they should remain high. So precipitation will be as rain. The
 exception will be across the northern mountains and dropping
 south along the Panhandle where the cooler and drier air moved
 in. Many of the valley locations will most likely wet-bulb
 (evaporative cooling) to right around freezing and the some of
 the valleys up near the Canadian border may see wet snow
 accumulation of 1-3 inches overnight. The mountain will locally
 pick up 5-8 additional inches. So the Winter Weather advisory
 will be extended through Wednesday morning and issued down to the
 valley floor. A bigger challenge will be Shoshone county. For the
 most part snow levels are above 4-4.5k feet. A nose of cooler air
 has remained in the vicinity of Lookout Pass. I has been snowing
 up there all day and new guidance indicates that snow level for
 that area will not rise above Pass level until after 12z so that
 advisory will also be extended...but mainly for the Look Out pass
 area.

*Temperatures and Winds: Temperatures will remain mild through the night
 with highs on Wednesday in the 40s and 50s. Winds will increase
 through the night out of the Southwest 10-20 mph with gusts to 25
 mph. Tobin

Wednesday night through Friday night...An active and mostly wet
rather than white period is in store for this time frame. Pacific
satellite reveals a nearly stationary closed low way off the
Pacific coast in the southern Gulf of Alaska with an upper level
ridge ahead of it. Models are in good agreement and consistent
over previous runs in keeping this low offshore...but the issue
will be interplay between a currently ill defined short wave
dropping down the coast of the Alaska Panhandle right now...and
the deep fetch of subtropical moisture feeding ahead of the
Pacific closed low. The descending wave will flatten the current
ridge and direct the moisture feed directly into the forecast
area beginning Wednesday night and continuing through Friday
evening. Finally by late Friday night another shot of very dry
modified arctic air will be drawn into the region behind the
passage of the northern wave. The GFS model is more aggressive
with the evolution while the EC is slower. The ECMWF appears to be
more consistent over a series of previous runs and this model was
used as the basis for the forecast.

All of this reasoning adds up to a wet forecast as the moisture
plume feeds into the region...but there will likely be a
perceptible rain shadow in the Cascades Lee as the mid level flow
remains westerly...but this will also enhance precipitation into
the Idaho Panhandle and northeast Washington mountains. Snow
levels will stay very high in the warm advection pattern ahead of
the swooping coastal short wave. The best chance for a back fill
into the basin of significant rain will be on Friday as the main
fetch is enhanced along the cold front leading edge of the the
arctic air. Storm total precipitation totals through this 48 hour
period will range from upwards of 2 inches on the high Cascades
and northeast mountains (although much of this above 6000 feet
will be locked up as snow) to 1/2 to 1 inch of rain in the
valleys of these regions...to 1/2 to 3/4 of and inch of rain over
the rising terrain of the east basin and a tenth or two in the
deep basin.

Persistently breezy and potentially gusty southwest winds will
also characterize this period...with all models indicating a
slowly drifting but strengthening surface low pressure over
southern British Columbia promoting a tight southerly gradient
over the forecast area with a strong potential of mixing stronger
winds aloft down to the surface during the daylight periods.

Snow levels will crash Friday night from north to south...but by
this time the air mass will be aggressively drying out with the
only significant accumulations expected in the Idaho Panhandle
mountains above 3000 feet or so.

So...in general a raw...windy and wet pattern with relatively mild
temperatures is expected through Friday with a stark cooling trend
Friday night. /Fugazzi

Saturday through Tuesday: Period looks to have a variety of
weather including both periods of both dry and wet conditions.
We will start the weekend off with a continental polar front
dropping out of Canada ushering in much colder and drier air to
the region. This will bring an end to the precipitation chances
quickly for the north and central portions of the area as
dewpoints drop to the floor and skies begin to clear from north to
south. As the colder air rushes in, we may have the chance for
some snowfall especially in the southern portions of the forecast
area Saturday as enough moisture remains to promote rain and/or
snow. The set up is similar to an event we saw earlier this year
as the cold polar air will be battling the moist Pacific air and
along the boundary is where the best precip chances will be. For
the weekend it looks to stay in far southern WA, the southern
Panhandle and mainly Oregon. As the cold air advects in from the
north we will also see our winds increase as cold air advection
coupled with the downsloping topography of the region supports it.
The winds are something that will have to be further examined to
get a better idea of the magnitude we could be looking at. Usually
with cold air intrusions such as this we see pretty good amounts
of wind especially though the Purcell trench, the Okanogan valley
and also in the West Plains and Columbia Basin.

Now we will move to the more exciting part of the forecast as the
moisture tap shifts from the mentioned southern areas back across
a larger portion of the region. This shift looks to start late
Sunday into early Monday as the Pacific moisture overpowers the
arctic air. Both the GFS and Euro depict the moist air overrunning
the cold air in place allowing for what currently looks to be a
widespread snow event. This could potentially mark the first
significant snow event for many valley locations. Confidence is
moderate at this point as their is good model agreement in the
overall pattern and both would support a temperature profile for
snow for the majority. The one thing to watch would be the amount
of warm air that enters. Currently the GFS is quite cold at the
surface with wetbulb zero temps are well below zero for all of the
region. The Euro brings a good surge of warm air Monday that could
lead to a switch to rain for the LC Valley, the southern Basin and
portions of the Palouse. With models diverging at this point I
went for a compromise leaving snow for most with a mix in the
lowest southern valleys. How long the snow will last or how much
each area receives is currently still in the air as models are
wavering a bit. A lot of this will depend on the strength of a
ridge in the central part of the country determining which areas
see the best QPF amounts. The exact details of this will have to
wait, but for now many areas could get a good taste of winter.
/Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
18z TAFS: Little change to the previous forecast discussion as we
expect a pretty steady rain today south of a line from the north
Cascades to near or just south of Mullan Pass. Expect
precipitation to shift back to the north this evening and
overnight. Snow levels keep precipitation as rain at all TAF
sites. The abundance of moisture will result in stratus and some
fog for the TAF sites with conditions wildly fluctuating between
MVFR to VFR/LIFR and back as bands of heavier precipitation moves
through the region. Southwest winds will be on the increase
overnight with gusts 15-25kts.Tobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        37  48  42  49  40  45 / 100  40  30  20  30  70
Coeur d`Alene  36  48  41  47  40  44 / 100  80  50  50  30  80
Pullman        42  54  44  52  42  48 / 100  20  20  10  30  80
Lewiston       44  59  47  55  45  52 /  90  10  10  10  30  70
Colville       33  45  39  45  38  42 / 100  70  60  40  40  70
Sandpoint      33  44  38  43  37  41 / 100 100  70  60  60  80
Kellogg        35  43  40  42  38  39 / 100  90  60  60  60  90
Moses Lake     39  54  44  54  40  51 /  60   0  10  10  20  30
Wenatchee      37  51  42  50  41  46 /  40  10  20  10  40  30
Omak           33  44  38  44  35  41 /  90  60  30  20  50  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northern
     Panhandle.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northeast
     Mountains.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 252230
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
230 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and wet conditions will continue through Thursday. Snow
levels will be on the rise tonight...but expect some
accumulations for the areas near the Canadian border through
morning. Thanksgiving will be breezy...wet and continued warm.
Then a colder weather pattern is expected for the holiday weekend
with the mountains receiving several rounds of snow. Snow levels
will fall to valley floors by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Wednesday...The ridge of high pressure that built into
the region on Monday and overnight was pushed down by a short
wave disturbance moving over the top of the ridge this morning.
This did two things, first it pushed the moisture further south
over the southern zones today and second it allowed cooler and
drier air to filter into the northern valleys. For tonight and
Wednesday that front will push back to the north. This will
increase the precipitation potential across the northern zones and
begin to dry conditions out across the southern east slopes...the
basin and portions of the WA Palouse.

*Precipitation: Yes and plenty of it outside the Columbia basin
 and lower east slopes. The lower elevations will likely see .10
 to .20...the northern mountains from a quarter to a half
 inch...the Panhandle mountains from a half to just under an
 inch...and for the Cascades anywhere from about half inch to
 almost 2 inches.

*Snow levels: Currently snow levels are pretty high over the forecast
 area...between 4k-5k feet and with additional warm air advection
 they should remain high. So precipitation will be as rain. The
 exception will be across the northern mountains and dropping
 south along the Panhandle where the cooler and drier air moved
 in. Many of the valley locations will most likely wet-bulb
 (evaporative cooling) to right around freezing and the some of
 the valleys up near the Canadian border may see wet snow
 accumulation of 1-3 inches overnight. The mountain will locally
 pick up 5-8 additional inches. So the Winter Weather advisory
 will be extended through Wednesday morning and issued down to the
 valley floor. A bigger challenge will be Shoshone county. For the
 most part snow levels are above 4-4.5k feet. A nose of cooler air
 has remained in the vicinity of Lookout Pass. I has been snowing
 up there all day and new guidance indicates that snow level for
 that area will not rise above Pass level until after 12z so that
 advisory will also be extended...but mainly for the Look Out pass
 area.

*Temperatures and Winds: Temperatures will remain mild through the night
 with highs on Wednesday in the 40s and 50s. Winds will increase
 through the night out of the Southwest 10-20 mph with gusts to 25
 mph. Tobin

Wednesday night through Friday night...An active and mostly wet
rather than white period is in store for this time frame. Pacific
satellite reveals a nearly stationary closed low way off the
Pacific coast in the southern Gulf of Alaska with an upper level
ridge ahead of it. Models are in good agreement and consistent
over previous runs in keeping this low offshore...but the issue
will be interplay between a currently ill defined short wave
dropping down the coast of the Alaska Panhandle right now...and
the deep fetch of subtropical moisture feeding ahead of the
Pacific closed low. The descending wave will flatten the current
ridge and direct the moisture feed directly into the forecast
area beginning Wednesday night and continuing through Friday
evening. Finally by late Friday night another shot of very dry
modified arctic air will be drawn into the region behind the
passage of the northern wave. The GFS model is more aggressive
with the evolution while the EC is slower. The ECMWF appears to be
more consistent over a series of previous runs and this model was
used as the basis for the forecast.

All of this reasoning adds up to a wet forecast as the moisture
plume feeds into the region...but there will likely be a
perceptible rain shadow in the Cascades Lee as the mid level flow
remains westerly...but this will also enhance precipitation into
the Idaho Panhandle and northeast Washington mountains. Snow
levels will stay very high in the warm advection pattern ahead of
the swooping coastal short wave. The best chance for a back fill
into the basin of significant rain will be on Friday as the main
fetch is enhanced along the cold front leading edge of the the
arctic air. Storm total precipitation totals through this 48 hour
period will range from upwards of 2 inches on the high Cascades
and northeast mountains (although much of this above 6000 feet
will be locked up as snow) to 1/2 to 1 inch of rain in the
valleys of these regions...to 1/2 to 3/4 of and inch of rain over
the rising terrain of the east basin and a tenth or two in the
deep basin.

Persistently breezy and potentially gusty southwest winds will
also characterize this period...with all models indicating a
slowly drifting but strengthening surface low pressure over
southern British Columbia promoting a tight southerly gradient
over the forecast area with a strong potential of mixing stronger
winds aloft down to the surface during the daylight periods.

Snow levels will crash Friday night from north to south...but by
this time the air mass will be aggressively drying out with the
only significant accumulations expected in the Idaho Panhandle
mountains above 3000 feet or so.

So...in general a raw...windy and wet pattern with relatively mild
temperatures is expected through Friday with a stark cooling trend
Friday night. /Fugazzi

Saturday through Tuesday: Period looks to have a variety of
weather including both periods of both dry and wet conditions.
We will start the weekend off with a continental polar front
dropping out of Canada ushering in much colder and drier air to
the region. This will bring an end to the precipitation chances
quickly for the north and central portions of the area as
dewpoints drop to the floor and skies begin to clear from north to
south. As the colder air rushes in, we may have the chance for
some snowfall especially in the southern portions of the forecast
area Saturday as enough moisture remains to promote rain and/or
snow. The set up is similar to an event we saw earlier this year
as the cold polar air will be battling the moist Pacific air and
along the boundary is where the best precip chances will be. For
the weekend it looks to stay in far southern WA, the southern
Panhandle and mainly Oregon. As the cold air advects in from the
north we will also see our winds increase as cold air advection
coupled with the downsloping topography of the region supports it.
The winds are something that will have to be further examined to
get a better idea of the magnitude we could be looking at. Usually
with cold air intrusions such as this we see pretty good amounts
of wind especially though the Purcell trench, the Okanogan valley
and also in the West Plains and Columbia Basin.

Now we will move to the more exciting part of the forecast as the
moisture tap shifts from the mentioned southern areas back across
a larger portion of the region. This shift looks to start late
Sunday into early Monday as the Pacific moisture overpowers the
arctic air. Both the GFS and Euro depict the moist air overrunning
the cold air in place allowing for what currently looks to be a
widespread snow event. This could potentially mark the first
significant snow event for many valley locations. Confidence is
moderate at this point as their is good model agreement in the
overall pattern and both would support a temperature profile for
snow for the majority. The one thing to watch would be the amount
of warm air that enters. Currently the GFS is quite cold at the
surface with wetbulb zero temps are well below zero for all of the
region. The Euro brings a good surge of warm air Monday that could
lead to a switch to rain for the LC Valley, the southern Basin and
portions of the Palouse. With models diverging at this point I
went for a compromise leaving snow for most with a mix in the
lowest southern valleys. How long the snow will last or how much
each area receives is currently still in the air as models are
wavering a bit. A lot of this will depend on the strength of a
ridge in the central part of the country determining which areas
see the best QPF amounts. The exact details of this will have to
wait, but for now many areas could get a good taste of winter.
/Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
18z TAFS: Little change to the previous forecast discussion as we
expect a pretty steady rain today south of a line from the north
Cascades to near or just south of Mullan Pass. Expect
precipitation to shift back to the north this evening and
overnight. Snow levels keep precipitation as rain at all TAF
sites. The abundance of moisture will result in stratus and some
fog for the TAF sites with conditions wildly fluctuating between
MVFR to VFR/LIFR and back as bands of heavier precipitation moves
through the region. Southwest winds will be on the increase
overnight with gusts 15-25kts.Tobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        37  48  42  49  40  45 / 100  40  30  20  30  70
Coeur d`Alene  36  48  41  47  40  44 / 100  80  50  50  30  80
Pullman        42  54  44  52  42  48 / 100  20  20  10  30  80
Lewiston       44  59  47  55  45  52 /  90  10  10  10  30  70
Colville       33  45  39  45  38  42 / 100  70  60  40  40  70
Sandpoint      33  44  38  43  37  41 / 100 100  70  60  60  80
Kellogg        35  43  40  42  38  39 / 100  90  60  60  60  90
Moses Lake     39  54  44  54  40  51 /  60   0  10  10  20  30
Wenatchee      37  51  42  50  41  46 /  40  10  20  10  40  30
Omak           33  44  38  44  35  41 /  90  60  30  20  50  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northern
     Panhandle.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northeast
     Mountains.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 252217
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
217 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY...EXCEPT FOR SW WASHINGTON. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST LATE WED EVENING AND THEN MOVES
INLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF EAST WIND IN
THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER DRAMATICALLY THIS
WEEKEND...BUT SLOWLY RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...500 MB RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED
ALONG 130W WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE RIDING OVER THE TOP. KLGX RADAR
INDICATING RETURNS OVER MUCH OF SW WA. HOWEVER...ECHO INTENSITY HAS
DIMINISHED AND THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST 6-HR PRECIP AMOUNTS.
RAINFALL RATES AS OF 21Z IN THE SW WA CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS HAVE
EASED TO AROUND ONE TENTH OR LESS. 24-HR TOTALS GENERALLY 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH SOME SNOTELS COMING IN WITH 3.5 INCHES. 500 MB HEIGHTS
NEAR 570 DM COMBINED WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 550S AND 850 MB TEMPS 8-10C HAVE RESULTED IN NEAR-RECORD
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THE MILD AIR MASS WILL
BE CONDUCING TO VALLEY FOG FORMATION TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINTS. FOG WILL FAVOR THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA
WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.

THE THANKSGIVING FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE COASTLINE LATE
WED EVENING THEN MIGRATE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THANKSGIVING MORNING.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND CASCADES THANKSGIVING NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE THE
QPF FIELD VALID 06Z FRI QUITE DIFFERWENTLY. THE GFS SHOWS AN OBVIOUS
BREAK IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH SEPARATE QPF BULLS-EYES OVER FAR
SW OREGON AND ALSO IN THE S WA CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. THE ECMWF SHOW
A MUCH LARGER SRN QPF AREA EXTENDING FURTHER N...TO THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND CASCADES. BY 12Z FRI THE ECMWF HAS A BROAD SWATH
OF QPF OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS THE TWO
SEPARATE AND DISTANT CORES. IN ANY EVENT...THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
QUITE MILD THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS WELL
ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES.

THINGS START TO CHANGE FRI AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET STREAM BRANCHES PHASING TOGETHER. BOTH
MODELS HAVE A MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR MASS SAGGING S THROUGH NRN WA
FRI. MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA OF ENHANCED QPF ALONG THE REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS IN QUESTION.
THE GFS HAS IT ALONG A LINE FROM NEWPORT TO ALBANY WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS IT A BIT MORE NORTH BUT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN
EVOLVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO SLIDE
S THROUGH WA AND INTO NRN OREGON. 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF ECMWF RUNS...DEPICTING A COLD AIR WEDGE IN THE
CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE BY 00Z SUN. LOOK FOR THE EAST WIND TO RETURN
AS WELL...BEGINNING SAT MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BY 00Z SUN THE GFS HAS -8 TO -10C 850 MB AIR IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA
GORGE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS JUST A TOUCH WARMER. FORTUNATELY...THE
DRIER NLY FLOW WILL SHUNT PRECIP FURTHER TO THE S. A CLOSED LOW WELL
OF THE NRN CA COAST SAT STARTS TO DRIFT NE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEFORMATION BAND OVER NRN CA TO DRIFT NWD LATE
SUN INTO MON. THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS THE MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE
COLD AIR....ESPECIALLY FOR THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER
VALLEY. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA IS
RESULTING IN A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS. THE COAST HAS IFR/MVFR
CIGS...AND INLAND AREAS ARE VFR/MVFR. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NORTH COAST AND KAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL HELP KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED AND PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SOME MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTH COAST. KONP HOWEVER WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IFR INTO WED MORNING. CIGS SHOULD LIFT INLAND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT SOME CLEARING. THEN EXPECT CIGS TO CRASH
AND VISIBILITIES TO REDUCE AS FOG DEVELOPS IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS
LATE TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE CLOUD
BREAKS. CIGS SHOULD LOWER THIS EVENING TO MVFR. IF CLEARING DOES
OCCUR THIS EVENING...THEN FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. TJ

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
PERSIST NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A
FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS GRADUALLY LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. SEAS WILL
HOVER AROUND 9 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE AS A STRONGER
FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE
WATCH.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH BY THE SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW AND THE MODELS VARY ON HOW
FAR NORTH IT WILL REACH...AND ON THE TIMING. THEREFORE...THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR FRIDAY FORECAST. A LARGE LOW WILL DROP SOUTH
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY AND SETTLE SW OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND...AND GENERATE OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE
WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ENHANCED GUSTS NEAR THE COASTAL
GAPS...POSSIBLY NEEDING A WIND HEADLINE. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     9 AM PST WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 252217
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
217 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY...EXCEPT FOR SW WASHINGTON. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST LATE WED EVENING AND THEN MOVES
INLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF EAST WIND IN
THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER DRAMATICALLY THIS
WEEKEND...BUT SLOWLY RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...500 MB RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED
ALONG 130W WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE RIDING OVER THE TOP. KLGX RADAR
INDICATING RETURNS OVER MUCH OF SW WA. HOWEVER...ECHO INTENSITY HAS
DIMINISHED AND THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST 6-HR PRECIP AMOUNTS.
RAINFALL RATES AS OF 21Z IN THE SW WA CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS HAVE
EASED TO AROUND ONE TENTH OR LESS. 24-HR TOTALS GENERALLY 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH SOME SNOTELS COMING IN WITH 3.5 INCHES. 500 MB HEIGHTS
NEAR 570 DM COMBINED WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 550S AND 850 MB TEMPS 8-10C HAVE RESULTED IN NEAR-RECORD
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THE MILD AIR MASS WILL
BE CONDUCING TO VALLEY FOG FORMATION TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINTS. FOG WILL FAVOR THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA
WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.

THE THANKSGIVING FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE COASTLINE LATE
WED EVENING THEN MIGRATE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THANKSGIVING MORNING.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND CASCADES THANKSGIVING NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE THE
QPF FIELD VALID 06Z FRI QUITE DIFFERWENTLY. THE GFS SHOWS AN OBVIOUS
BREAK IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH SEPARATE QPF BULLS-EYES OVER FAR
SW OREGON AND ALSO IN THE S WA CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. THE ECMWF SHOW
A MUCH LARGER SRN QPF AREA EXTENDING FURTHER N...TO THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND CASCADES. BY 12Z FRI THE ECMWF HAS A BROAD SWATH
OF QPF OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS THE TWO
SEPARATE AND DISTANT CORES. IN ANY EVENT...THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
QUITE MILD THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS WELL
ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES.

THINGS START TO CHANGE FRI AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET STREAM BRANCHES PHASING TOGETHER. BOTH
MODELS HAVE A MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR MASS SAGGING S THROUGH NRN WA
FRI. MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA OF ENHANCED QPF ALONG THE REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS IN QUESTION.
THE GFS HAS IT ALONG A LINE FROM NEWPORT TO ALBANY WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS IT A BIT MORE NORTH BUT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN
EVOLVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO SLIDE
S THROUGH WA AND INTO NRN OREGON. 12Z GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF ECMWF RUNS...DEPICTING A COLD AIR WEDGE IN THE
CENTRAL COLUMBIA GORGE BY 00Z SUN. LOOK FOR THE EAST WIND TO RETURN
AS WELL...BEGINNING SAT MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BY 00Z SUN THE GFS HAS -8 TO -10C 850 MB AIR IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA
GORGE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS JUST A TOUCH WARMER. FORTUNATELY...THE
DRIER NLY FLOW WILL SHUNT PRECIP FURTHER TO THE S. A CLOSED LOW WELL
OF THE NRN CA COAST SAT STARTS TO DRIFT NE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEFORMATION BAND OVER NRN CA TO DRIFT NWD LATE
SUN INTO MON. THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS THE MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE
COLD AIR....ESPECIALLY FOR THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER
VALLEY. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA IS
RESULTING IN A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS. THE COAST HAS IFR/MVFR
CIGS...AND INLAND AREAS ARE VFR/MVFR. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NORTH COAST AND KAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL HELP KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED AND PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SOME MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTH COAST. KONP HOWEVER WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IFR INTO WED MORNING. CIGS SHOULD LIFT INLAND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT SOME CLEARING. THEN EXPECT CIGS TO CRASH
AND VISIBILITIES TO REDUCE AS FOG DEVELOPS IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS
LATE TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE CLOUD
BREAKS. CIGS SHOULD LOWER THIS EVENING TO MVFR. IF CLEARING DOES
OCCUR THIS EVENING...THEN FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. TJ

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
PERSIST NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A
FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS GRADUALLY LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. SEAS WILL
HOVER AROUND 9 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE AS A STRONGER
FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE
WATCH.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH BY THE SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW AND THE MODELS VARY ON HOW
FAR NORTH IT WILL REACH...AND ON THE TIMING. THEREFORE...THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR FRIDAY FORECAST. A LARGE LOW WILL DROP SOUTH
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY AND SETTLE SW OF THE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND...AND GENERATE OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE
WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ENHANCED GUSTS NEAR THE COASTAL
GAPS...POSSIBLY NEEDING A WIND HEADLINE. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     9 AM PST WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 251857
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1057 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and rainy conditions are expected today with the southern and
central Idaho Panhandle receiving rain for much of the day. Snow
levels will be on the rise tonight into Wednesday bringing a break
in the heavy mountain snow. A breezy and wet but warm
Thanksgiving Day will give way to a colder weather pattern for the
holiday weekend with the mountains receiving several rounds of
snow. Snow levels will fall to valley floors by the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated were made to the forecast today...chiefly to reduce the
chance of precipitation and amount across the northeast zones and
slightly increase pops and raise amounts for areas further to the
south. A shortwave is moving over the ridge and had effectively
shifted the brunt of the moisture further south than previously
expected. This wave is also allowing cooler air to filter into
the region and temperatures for the northern zones have been
cooled off several degrees for today. Rain fall amounts have been
quite impressive since last night. Amounts range from around a
quarter inch to close to 2 inches for the Cascades and a quarter
inch to just over an inch for the central and north Panhandle
mountains.

The cooler air filtering into the northern valleys may result in
several hours of snow this evening before turning over to rain by
morning. otherwise expect wet conditions tonight and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
18z TAFS: Little change to the previous forecast discussion as we
expect a pretty steady rain today south of a line from the north
Cascades to near or just south of Mullan Pass. Expectprecipitation
to shift back to the north this evening and overnight. Snow levels
keep precipitation as rain at all TAF sites. The abundance of
moisture will result in stratus and some fog for the TAF sites
with conditions wildly fluctuating between MVFR to VFR/LIFR and
back as bands of heavier precipitation moves through the region.
Southwest winds will be on the increase overnight with gusts
15-25kts.Tobin



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        41  37  49  42  49  38 /  60 100  40  30  30  30
Coeur d`Alene  40  36  48  40  46  38 /  70 100  80  40  50  30
Pullman        50  43  53  44  52  41 / 100 100  20  20  20  30
Lewiston       49  44  59  47  54  43 / 100  90  10  10  20  40
Colville       37  34  46  38  45  36 /  20 100  70  60  40  30
Sandpoint      37  33  44  37  42  35 /  30 100 100  70  70  50
Kellogg        38  35  43  39  42  36 /  90 100  90  50  60  60
Moses Lake     39  39  55  45  53  39 /  40  60   0  10  10  20
Wenatchee      41  38  50  43  48  39 /  30  40  10  10  20  30
Omak           38  33  44  37  43  34 /  80  90  60  30  40  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for
     Northeast Mountains.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 251740
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
940 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAINY BREEZY WEATHER TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON TODAY...WITH HEAVY RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER A
RELATIVE LULL TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING MORE
RAINY WINDY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING. RAIN WILL
DECREASE ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
COOLER DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED OVER W WA THIS MORNING. LIGHT
RAIN AT TIMES IS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWLANDS WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE CASCADES. SO FAR A STRONG LOW LEVEL WESTERLY JET
PASSING S OF THE OLYMPICS HAS BEEN SLAMMING INTO THE CASCADES S OF
SNOQUALMIE PASS...PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. 24 HOUR PRECIP OVER THE
CASCADES FROM STEVENS PASS SOUTHWARD HAS RANGED FROM 2-5 INCHES WITH
THE 5 INCH BULLSEYES AROUND MT RAINIER.

THE WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE NEAR
40N/150W...ACROSS A BROAD FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST
OFFSHORE ALONG ROUGHLY 130W. MODELS STILL AGREE ON SHIFTING THE WARM
FRONT NORTH TODAY...EVENTUALLY STALLING IT ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
THIS EVENING. HRRR MODEL SHOWS THE HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
DIMINISHING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 21Z AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS
N. MODELS SEEM TO MOVE THE FRONT QUICK ENOUGH SO THAT MOST OF THE
REST OF THE CASCADES DO NOT GET AS MUCH HEAVY RAIN AS PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. HOWEVER THE FRONT IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE BORDER SO THAT
HEAVY RAIN COULD CONTINUE OVER FAR N CASCADES TONIGHT.

OVER THE LOWLANDS...RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM S TO N THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES N. RAIN WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE UP AROUND
BELLINGHAM WITH THE WARM FRONT STILL IN THE VICINITY.

A COLD FRONT ORIGINATING FROM THE OFFSHORE LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS W WA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND CONTINUE BEHIND IT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...UNTIL THE
LAST COLD FRONT MOVING S DOWN THE B.C. COAST FINALLY CROSSES THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THE STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MORE
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE N CASCADES AND OVER THE OLYMPICS. THE LOWLANDS
WILL GET RAIN...BUT PARTS OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION WILL BE SHADOWED
BY THE OLYMPICS AT TIMES.

ALL THE WARM ADVECTION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MILD WITH LOWS NEAR 50 AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
N INTERIOR. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 3 AM AFD...PRECIPITATION
OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON SHOULD DECREASE ON FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT THAT DIGS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
COME INTO FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA PRODUCES
NORTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENTS. THE WEEKEND WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S. THE DAYS SHOULD BE AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY. WE WILL KEEP A
LOW-END CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE VERY LIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE COOL DRY SPELL
WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LIFTING INTO
WESTERN WASHINGTON FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
MCDONNAL

&&

.HYDROLOGY...STRONG LOW LEVEL W FLOW ALOFT HAS DROPPED 2 TO 5 INCHES
OF RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES FROM ABOUT STEVENS PASS
SOUTHWARD...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER THE MT RAINIER AREA.
SEVERAL FLOOD WARNING HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED...AND A FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES FOR THE CASCADES...INCLUDING THE COWLITZ...PUYALLUP NEAR
ORTING...SNOQUALMIE... TOLT...SKYKOMISH...SNOHOMISH...
STILLAGUAMISH...AND NOOKSACK RIVERS.


THE HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
PARTICULARLY OVER THE MT RAINIER AREA. RAIN WILL DIMINISH THERE AS
THE WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA SHIFTS N...REACHING THE CANADIAN BORDER
EARLY THIS EVENING. MODELS APPEAR TO MOVE THE FRONT FAST ENOUGH SO
THAT ONLY MODERATE RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE NORTH CASCADES TODAY.

THE WARM FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT WHICH
COULD ALLOW MODERATE RAIN TO CONTINUE OVER THE N CASCADES IN WHATCOM
AND SKAGIT COUNTY TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER 0.75-1.50 INCHES POSSIBLE
FROM 03Z-15Z. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...FROM ROUGHLY 6000 TO
8000 FEET TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LOWERING TO 5000-6000 FEET
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE MORE OF A LULL IN RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG LOW LEVEL SW FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE SW DIRECTION SHOULD
PUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVER THE OLYMPICS AND N CASCADES WITH ANOTHER
3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL
GIVE LOW MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN TO MOST
TERMINALS TODAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL REACH THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

KSEA...CEILINGS AROUND 005 WITH VISIBILITY 3-5SM IN -RA BR. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ABOUT 00Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH VISIBILITY
RISING TO P6SM AND CIGS RISING TO 008-012. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY 10-14KT BEHIND THE FRONT ABOUT 00Z. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON THE COAST LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHTER INLAND.

WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST.
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER MOST
WATERS WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THE COAST AND OVER EXPOSED INLAND
AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST...THE
STRAIT ENTRANCES...AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG FRASER OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE OTHER WATERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST AND WEST ENTRANCE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
     GALE WATCH COAST...ENTRANCES...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KSEW 251740
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
940 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAINY BREEZY WEATHER TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON TODAY...WITH HEAVY RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER A
RELATIVE LULL TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING MORE
RAINY WINDY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING. RAIN WILL
DECREASE ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
COOLER DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED OVER W WA THIS MORNING. LIGHT
RAIN AT TIMES IS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWLANDS WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE CASCADES. SO FAR A STRONG LOW LEVEL WESTERLY JET
PASSING S OF THE OLYMPICS HAS BEEN SLAMMING INTO THE CASCADES S OF
SNOQUALMIE PASS...PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. 24 HOUR PRECIP OVER THE
CASCADES FROM STEVENS PASS SOUTHWARD HAS RANGED FROM 2-5 INCHES WITH
THE 5 INCH BULLSEYES AROUND MT RAINIER.

THE WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE NEAR
40N/150W...ACROSS A BROAD FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST
OFFSHORE ALONG ROUGHLY 130W. MODELS STILL AGREE ON SHIFTING THE WARM
FRONT NORTH TODAY...EVENTUALLY STALLING IT ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
THIS EVENING. HRRR MODEL SHOWS THE HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
DIMINISHING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 21Z AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS
N. MODELS SEEM TO MOVE THE FRONT QUICK ENOUGH SO THAT MOST OF THE
REST OF THE CASCADES DO NOT GET AS MUCH HEAVY RAIN AS PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. HOWEVER THE FRONT IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE BORDER SO THAT
HEAVY RAIN COULD CONTINUE OVER FAR N CASCADES TONIGHT.

OVER THE LOWLANDS...RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM S TO N THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES N. RAIN WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE UP AROUND
BELLINGHAM WITH THE WARM FRONT STILL IN THE VICINITY.

A COLD FRONT ORIGINATING FROM THE OFFSHORE LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS W WA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND CONTINUE BEHIND IT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...UNTIL THE
LAST COLD FRONT MOVING S DOWN THE B.C. COAST FINALLY CROSSES THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THE STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MORE
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE N CASCADES AND OVER THE OLYMPICS. THE LOWLANDS
WILL GET RAIN...BUT PARTS OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION WILL BE SHADOWED
BY THE OLYMPICS AT TIMES.

ALL THE WARM ADVECTION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MILD WITH LOWS NEAR 50 AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
N INTERIOR. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 3 AM AFD...PRECIPITATION
OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON SHOULD DECREASE ON FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT THAT DIGS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
COME INTO FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA PRODUCES
NORTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENTS. THE WEEKEND WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S. THE DAYS SHOULD BE AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY. WE WILL KEEP A
LOW-END CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE VERY LIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE COOL DRY SPELL
WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LIFTING INTO
WESTERN WASHINGTON FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
MCDONNAL

&&

.HYDROLOGY...STRONG LOW LEVEL W FLOW ALOFT HAS DROPPED 2 TO 5 INCHES
OF RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES FROM ABOUT STEVENS PASS
SOUTHWARD...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER THE MT RAINIER AREA.
SEVERAL FLOOD WARNING HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED...AND A FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES FOR THE CASCADES...INCLUDING THE COWLITZ...PUYALLUP NEAR
ORTING...SNOQUALMIE... TOLT...SKYKOMISH...SNOHOMISH...
STILLAGUAMISH...AND NOOKSACK RIVERS.


THE HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
PARTICULARLY OVER THE MT RAINIER AREA. RAIN WILL DIMINISH THERE AS
THE WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA SHIFTS N...REACHING THE CANADIAN BORDER
EARLY THIS EVENING. MODELS APPEAR TO MOVE THE FRONT FAST ENOUGH SO
THAT ONLY MODERATE RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE NORTH CASCADES TODAY.

THE WARM FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT WHICH
COULD ALLOW MODERATE RAIN TO CONTINUE OVER THE N CASCADES IN WHATCOM
AND SKAGIT COUNTY TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER 0.75-1.50 INCHES POSSIBLE
FROM 03Z-15Z. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...FROM ROUGHLY 6000 TO
8000 FEET TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LOWERING TO 5000-6000 FEET
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE MORE OF A LULL IN RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG LOW LEVEL SW FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE SW DIRECTION SHOULD
PUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVER THE OLYMPICS AND N CASCADES WITH ANOTHER
3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL
GIVE LOW MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN TO MOST
TERMINALS TODAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL REACH THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

KSEA...CEILINGS AROUND 005 WITH VISIBILITY 3-5SM IN -RA BR. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ABOUT 00Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH VISIBILITY
RISING TO P6SM AND CIGS RISING TO 008-012. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY 10-14KT BEHIND THE FRONT ABOUT 00Z. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON THE COAST LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHTER INLAND.

WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST.
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER MOST
WATERS WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THE COAST AND OVER EXPOSED INLAND
AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST...THE
STRAIT ENTRANCES...AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG FRASER OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE OTHER WATERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST AND WEST ENTRANCE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
     GALE WATCH COAST...ENTRANCES...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KPQR 251655
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
853 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY...EXCEPT FOR SW WASHINGTON. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST LATE WED EVENING AND THEN MOVES
INLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF EAST WIND IN THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER DRAMATICALLY THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH DETAILS VARY A FAIR AMOUNT AMONGST THE
MODELS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...CURRENT FORECAST
TRACKING NICELY THIS MORNING SO MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE.
WAR-FRONTAL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY RIDING OVER THE TOP OF A 500 MB RIDGE
OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO BE AIMED AT WESTERN WASHINGTON. 12 HR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH 16Z HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN
THE S WASHINGTON CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. THESE VALUES ARE CLOSER TO
YESTERDAYS 12Z NAM AND ECMWF VALUES. IT APPEARS THE 12Z GFS WAS TOO
HIGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY S OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER...WITH N OREGON CASCADE AND FOOTHILL AREAS PICKING UP AROUND
0.50 TO 1.25 INCHES IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE OTHER NOTICEABLE IMPACT
IS THE MILD MORNING TEMPERATURES. INLAND VALLEY AREAS HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. GOVERNMENT CAMP...NEAR 4000 FT MSL...WAS
IN THE UPPER 40S AT 16Z.

THE LATEST NOAA BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWS 1 TO
1.25 INCHES DIRECTED AT WESTERN WASHINGTON. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT SHOWING THIS WARM-FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTING N TODAY
AND TONIGHT. POPS AND QPF WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. THE S
INTERIOR VALLEYS STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF FOG FORMATION WITH SUCH A
MILD AIR MASS AND HIGH DEW POINTS. NRN LOCATIONS WILL HAVE PATCHIER
FOG DUE TO MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

THE THANKSGIVING FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE COASTLINE LATE
WED EVENING THEN MIGRATE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THANKSGIVING MORNING.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND CASCADES THANKSGIVING NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
QUITE MILD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH THE SNOW LEVEL WELL
ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN EXPECTED TO SET
UP FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE COLDER NRN
BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM SAGGING SOUTH FRI WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
SETTLING OFF THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS HANDLE THE NRN STREAM MUCH
DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF ALLOWS SOME OF THE COLDER AIR TO SEEP FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST SAT COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS HAS MAJOR RAMIFICATIONS
ON SNOW LEVELS. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE
ECMWF...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO THE LOWEST NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
GORGE BY SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF ALSO MAINTAINS A CLOSED LOW NEAR 35N
130W SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH MOISTURE OVER-RUNNING THE COLD AIR
BOUNDARY. THIS RESULTS IN THE THREAT OF SNOW BELOW 1500 TO 2000 FEET
ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE FORECAST...AND EVEN LOWER IN THE COLUMBIA
GORGE AND S WA CASCADES FOOTHILLS. A LOT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
SAT-MON TIME FRAME THUS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS NOT TOO
HIGH. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...COASTAL SITES SHOULD REMAIN IFR THROUGH TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. KONP HAS THE BEST CHANCE
OF BREAKING OUT OF THE IFR CONDITIONS...BUT THINK ANY IMPROVEMENT
WILL BE BRIEF. RAIN AND MVFR CIGS WILL PRIMARILY BE NORTH OF THE
OREGON BORDER TODAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY. SOME VALLEY AREAS IN THE SOUTH WILL HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS
THIS MORNING...LIKE KCVO AND KEUG. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS WEAKEN AND EXPECT MORE AREAS WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG IS LIKELY FOR THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS SOUTH OF SALEM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR AROUND 22Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. TJ/MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
PERSIST NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A
FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS GRADUALLY LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. SEAS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW 10 FEET THIS MORNING AND HAVE CANCELED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS. THEY WILL HOVER AROUND 9 FEET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE AS A STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH BY THE SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY.
MODELS HINT THAT AREAS SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD MAY HAVE A BRIEF
PERIOD WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. A LARGE LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SW THIS WEEKEND AND GENERATE OFFSHORE WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS MAY RESULT IN ENHANCED WINDS NEAR
THE COASTAL GAPS...POSSIBLY NEEDING A WIND HEADLINE. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     9 AM PST WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 251655
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
853 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY...EXCEPT FOR SW WASHINGTON. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST LATE WED EVENING AND THEN MOVES
INLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF EAST WIND IN THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER DRAMATICALLY THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH DETAILS VARY A FAIR AMOUNT AMONGST THE
MODELS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...CURRENT FORECAST
TRACKING NICELY THIS MORNING SO MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE.
WAR-FRONTAL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY RIDING OVER THE TOP OF A 500 MB RIDGE
OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO BE AIMED AT WESTERN WASHINGTON. 12 HR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH 16Z HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN
THE S WASHINGTON CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. THESE VALUES ARE CLOSER TO
YESTERDAYS 12Z NAM AND ECMWF VALUES. IT APPEARS THE 12Z GFS WAS TOO
HIGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY S OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER...WITH N OREGON CASCADE AND FOOTHILL AREAS PICKING UP AROUND
0.50 TO 1.25 INCHES IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE OTHER NOTICEABLE IMPACT
IS THE MILD MORNING TEMPERATURES. INLAND VALLEY AREAS HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. GOVERNMENT CAMP...NEAR 4000 FT MSL...WAS
IN THE UPPER 40S AT 16Z.

THE LATEST NOAA BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWS 1 TO
1.25 INCHES DIRECTED AT WESTERN WASHINGTON. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT SHOWING THIS WARM-FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTING N TODAY
AND TONIGHT. POPS AND QPF WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. THE S
INTERIOR VALLEYS STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF FOG FORMATION WITH SUCH A
MILD AIR MASS AND HIGH DEW POINTS. NRN LOCATIONS WILL HAVE PATCHIER
FOG DUE TO MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

THE THANKSGIVING FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE COASTLINE LATE
WED EVENING THEN MIGRATE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THANKSGIVING MORNING.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND CASCADES THANKSGIVING NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
QUITE MILD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH THE SNOW LEVEL WELL
ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN EXPECTED TO SET
UP FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE COLDER NRN
BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM SAGGING SOUTH FRI WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
SETTLING OFF THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS HANDLE THE NRN STREAM MUCH
DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF ALLOWS SOME OF THE COLDER AIR TO SEEP FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST SAT COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS HAS MAJOR RAMIFICATIONS
ON SNOW LEVELS. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE
ECMWF...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO THE LOWEST NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
GORGE BY SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF ALSO MAINTAINS A CLOSED LOW NEAR 35N
130W SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH MOISTURE OVER-RUNNING THE COLD AIR
BOUNDARY. THIS RESULTS IN THE THREAT OF SNOW BELOW 1500 TO 2000 FEET
ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE FORECAST...AND EVEN LOWER IN THE COLUMBIA
GORGE AND S WA CASCADES FOOTHILLS. A LOT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
SAT-MON TIME FRAME THUS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS NOT TOO
HIGH. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...COASTAL SITES SHOULD REMAIN IFR THROUGH TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. KONP HAS THE BEST CHANCE
OF BREAKING OUT OF THE IFR CONDITIONS...BUT THINK ANY IMPROVEMENT
WILL BE BRIEF. RAIN AND MVFR CIGS WILL PRIMARILY BE NORTH OF THE
OREGON BORDER TODAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY. SOME VALLEY AREAS IN THE SOUTH WILL HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS
THIS MORNING...LIKE KCVO AND KEUG. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS WEAKEN AND EXPECT MORE AREAS WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG IS LIKELY FOR THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS SOUTH OF SALEM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR AROUND 22Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. TJ/MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
PERSIST NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A
FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS GRADUALLY LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. SEAS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW 10 FEET THIS MORNING AND HAVE CANCELED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS. THEY WILL HOVER AROUND 9 FEET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE AS A STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH BY THE SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY.
MODELS HINT THAT AREAS SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD MAY HAVE A BRIEF
PERIOD WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. A LARGE LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SW THIS WEEKEND AND GENERATE OFFSHORE WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS MAY RESULT IN ENHANCED WINDS NEAR
THE COASTAL GAPS...POSSIBLY NEEDING A WIND HEADLINE. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     9 AM PST WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 251655
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
853 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY...EXCEPT FOR SW WASHINGTON. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST LATE WED EVENING AND THEN MOVES
INLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF EAST WIND IN THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER DRAMATICALLY THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH DETAILS VARY A FAIR AMOUNT AMONGST THE
MODELS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...CURRENT FORECAST
TRACKING NICELY THIS MORNING SO MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE.
WAR-FRONTAL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY RIDING OVER THE TOP OF A 500 MB RIDGE
OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO BE AIMED AT WESTERN WASHINGTON. 12 HR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH 16Z HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN
THE S WASHINGTON CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. THESE VALUES ARE CLOSER TO
YESTERDAYS 12Z NAM AND ECMWF VALUES. IT APPEARS THE 12Z GFS WAS TOO
HIGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY S OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER...WITH N OREGON CASCADE AND FOOTHILL AREAS PICKING UP AROUND
0.50 TO 1.25 INCHES IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE OTHER NOTICEABLE IMPACT
IS THE MILD MORNING TEMPERATURES. INLAND VALLEY AREAS HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. GOVERNMENT CAMP...NEAR 4000 FT MSL...WAS
IN THE UPPER 40S AT 16Z.

THE LATEST NOAA BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWS 1 TO
1.25 INCHES DIRECTED AT WESTERN WASHINGTON. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT SHOWING THIS WARM-FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTING N TODAY
AND TONIGHT. POPS AND QPF WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. THE S
INTERIOR VALLEYS STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF FOG FORMATION WITH SUCH A
MILD AIR MASS AND HIGH DEW POINTS. NRN LOCATIONS WILL HAVE PATCHIER
FOG DUE TO MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

THE THANKSGIVING FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE COASTLINE LATE
WED EVENING THEN MIGRATE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THANKSGIVING MORNING.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND CASCADES THANKSGIVING NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
QUITE MILD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH THE SNOW LEVEL WELL
ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN EXPECTED TO SET
UP FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE COLDER NRN
BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM SAGGING SOUTH FRI WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
SETTLING OFF THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS HANDLE THE NRN STREAM MUCH
DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF ALLOWS SOME OF THE COLDER AIR TO SEEP FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST SAT COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS HAS MAJOR RAMIFICATIONS
ON SNOW LEVELS. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE
ECMWF...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO THE LOWEST NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
GORGE BY SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF ALSO MAINTAINS A CLOSED LOW NEAR 35N
130W SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH MOISTURE OVER-RUNNING THE COLD AIR
BOUNDARY. THIS RESULTS IN THE THREAT OF SNOW BELOW 1500 TO 2000 FEET
ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE FORECAST...AND EVEN LOWER IN THE COLUMBIA
GORGE AND S WA CASCADES FOOTHILLS. A LOT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
SAT-MON TIME FRAME THUS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS NOT TOO
HIGH. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...COASTAL SITES SHOULD REMAIN IFR THROUGH TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. KONP HAS THE BEST CHANCE
OF BREAKING OUT OF THE IFR CONDITIONS...BUT THINK ANY IMPROVEMENT
WILL BE BRIEF. RAIN AND MVFR CIGS WILL PRIMARILY BE NORTH OF THE
OREGON BORDER TODAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY. SOME VALLEY AREAS IN THE SOUTH WILL HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS
THIS MORNING...LIKE KCVO AND KEUG. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS WEAKEN AND EXPECT MORE AREAS WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG IS LIKELY FOR THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS SOUTH OF SALEM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR AROUND 22Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. TJ/MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
PERSIST NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A
FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS GRADUALLY LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. SEAS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW 10 FEET THIS MORNING AND HAVE CANCELED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS. THEY WILL HOVER AROUND 9 FEET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE AS A STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH BY THE SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY.
MODELS HINT THAT AREAS SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD MAY HAVE A BRIEF
PERIOD WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. A LARGE LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SW THIS WEEKEND AND GENERATE OFFSHORE WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS MAY RESULT IN ENHANCED WINDS NEAR
THE COASTAL GAPS...POSSIBLY NEEDING A WIND HEADLINE. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     9 AM PST WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 251655
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
853 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY...EXCEPT FOR SW WASHINGTON. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST LATE WED EVENING AND THEN MOVES
INLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF EAST WIND IN THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER DRAMATICALLY THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH DETAILS VARY A FAIR AMOUNT AMONGST THE
MODELS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...CURRENT FORECAST
TRACKING NICELY THIS MORNING SO MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE.
WAR-FRONTAL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY RIDING OVER THE TOP OF A 500 MB RIDGE
OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO BE AIMED AT WESTERN WASHINGTON. 12 HR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH 16Z HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN
THE S WASHINGTON CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. THESE VALUES ARE CLOSER TO
YESTERDAYS 12Z NAM AND ECMWF VALUES. IT APPEARS THE 12Z GFS WAS TOO
HIGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY S OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER...WITH N OREGON CASCADE AND FOOTHILL AREAS PICKING UP AROUND
0.50 TO 1.25 INCHES IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE OTHER NOTICEABLE IMPACT
IS THE MILD MORNING TEMPERATURES. INLAND VALLEY AREAS HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. GOVERNMENT CAMP...NEAR 4000 FT MSL...WAS
IN THE UPPER 40S AT 16Z.

THE LATEST NOAA BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWS 1 TO
1.25 INCHES DIRECTED AT WESTERN WASHINGTON. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT SHOWING THIS WARM-FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTING N TODAY
AND TONIGHT. POPS AND QPF WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. THE S
INTERIOR VALLEYS STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF FOG FORMATION WITH SUCH A
MILD AIR MASS AND HIGH DEW POINTS. NRN LOCATIONS WILL HAVE PATCHIER
FOG DUE TO MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

THE THANKSGIVING FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE COASTLINE LATE
WED EVENING THEN MIGRATE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THANKSGIVING MORNING.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND CASCADES THANKSGIVING NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
QUITE MILD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH THE SNOW LEVEL WELL
ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN EXPECTED TO SET
UP FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE COLDER NRN
BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM SAGGING SOUTH FRI WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
SETTLING OFF THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS HANDLE THE NRN STREAM MUCH
DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF ALLOWS SOME OF THE COLDER AIR TO SEEP FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST SAT COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS HAS MAJOR RAMIFICATIONS
ON SNOW LEVELS. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE
ECMWF...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO THE LOWEST NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
GORGE BY SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF ALSO MAINTAINS A CLOSED LOW NEAR 35N
130W SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH MOISTURE OVER-RUNNING THE COLD AIR
BOUNDARY. THIS RESULTS IN THE THREAT OF SNOW BELOW 1500 TO 2000 FEET
ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE FORECAST...AND EVEN LOWER IN THE COLUMBIA
GORGE AND S WA CASCADES FOOTHILLS. A LOT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
SAT-MON TIME FRAME THUS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS NOT TOO
HIGH. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...COASTAL SITES SHOULD REMAIN IFR THROUGH TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. KONP HAS THE BEST CHANCE
OF BREAKING OUT OF THE IFR CONDITIONS...BUT THINK ANY IMPROVEMENT
WILL BE BRIEF. RAIN AND MVFR CIGS WILL PRIMARILY BE NORTH OF THE
OREGON BORDER TODAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY. SOME VALLEY AREAS IN THE SOUTH WILL HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS
THIS MORNING...LIKE KCVO AND KEUG. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS WEAKEN AND EXPECT MORE AREAS WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG IS LIKELY FOR THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS SOUTH OF SALEM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR AROUND 22Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. TJ/MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
PERSIST NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A
FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS GRADUALLY LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. SEAS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW 10 FEET THIS MORNING AND HAVE CANCELED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS. THEY WILL HOVER AROUND 9 FEET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE AS A STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH BY THE SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY.
MODELS HINT THAT AREAS SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD MAY HAVE A BRIEF
PERIOD WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. A LARGE LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SW THIS WEEKEND AND GENERATE OFFSHORE WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS MAY RESULT IN ENHANCED WINDS NEAR
THE COASTAL GAPS...POSSIBLY NEEDING A WIND HEADLINE. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     9 AM PST WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 251655
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
853 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY...EXCEPT FOR SW WASHINGTON. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST LATE WED EVENING AND THEN MOVES
INLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF EAST WIND IN THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER DRAMATICALLY THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH DETAILS VARY A FAIR AMOUNT AMONGST THE
MODELS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...CURRENT FORECAST
TRACKING NICELY THIS MORNING SO MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE.
WAR-FRONTAL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY RIDING OVER THE TOP OF A 500 MB RIDGE
OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO BE AIMED AT WESTERN WASHINGTON. 12 HR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH 16Z HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN
THE S WASHINGTON CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. THESE VALUES ARE CLOSER TO
YESTERDAYS 12Z NAM AND ECMWF VALUES. IT APPEARS THE 12Z GFS WAS TOO
HIGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY S OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER...WITH N OREGON CASCADE AND FOOTHILL AREAS PICKING UP AROUND
0.50 TO 1.25 INCHES IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE OTHER NOTICEABLE IMPACT
IS THE MILD MORNING TEMPERATURES. INLAND VALLEY AREAS HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. GOVERNMENT CAMP...NEAR 4000 FT MSL...WAS
IN THE UPPER 40S AT 16Z.

THE LATEST NOAA BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWS 1 TO
1.25 INCHES DIRECTED AT WESTERN WASHINGTON. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT SHOWING THIS WARM-FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTING N TODAY
AND TONIGHT. POPS AND QPF WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. THE S
INTERIOR VALLEYS STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF FOG FORMATION WITH SUCH A
MILD AIR MASS AND HIGH DEW POINTS. NRN LOCATIONS WILL HAVE PATCHIER
FOG DUE TO MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

THE THANKSGIVING FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE COASTLINE LATE
WED EVENING THEN MIGRATE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THANKSGIVING MORNING.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND CASCADES THANKSGIVING NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
QUITE MILD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH THE SNOW LEVEL WELL
ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN EXPECTED TO SET
UP FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE COLDER NRN
BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM SAGGING SOUTH FRI WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
SETTLING OFF THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS HANDLE THE NRN STREAM MUCH
DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF ALLOWS SOME OF THE COLDER AIR TO SEEP FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST SAT COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS HAS MAJOR RAMIFICATIONS
ON SNOW LEVELS. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE
ECMWF...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO THE LOWEST NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
GORGE BY SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF ALSO MAINTAINS A CLOSED LOW NEAR 35N
130W SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH MOISTURE OVER-RUNNING THE COLD AIR
BOUNDARY. THIS RESULTS IN THE THREAT OF SNOW BELOW 1500 TO 2000 FEET
ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE FORECAST...AND EVEN LOWER IN THE COLUMBIA
GORGE AND S WA CASCADES FOOTHILLS. A LOT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
SAT-MON TIME FRAME THUS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS NOT TOO
HIGH. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...COASTAL SITES SHOULD REMAIN IFR THROUGH TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. KONP HAS THE BEST CHANCE
OF BREAKING OUT OF THE IFR CONDITIONS...BUT THINK ANY IMPROVEMENT
WILL BE BRIEF. RAIN AND MVFR CIGS WILL PRIMARILY BE NORTH OF THE
OREGON BORDER TODAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY. SOME VALLEY AREAS IN THE SOUTH WILL HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS
THIS MORNING...LIKE KCVO AND KEUG. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS WEAKEN AND EXPECT MORE AREAS WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG IS LIKELY FOR THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS SOUTH OF SALEM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR AROUND 22Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. TJ/MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
PERSIST NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A
FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS GRADUALLY LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. SEAS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW 10 FEET THIS MORNING AND HAVE CANCELED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS. THEY WILL HOVER AROUND 9 FEET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE AS A STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH BY THE SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY.
MODELS HINT THAT AREAS SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD MAY HAVE A BRIEF
PERIOD WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. A LARGE LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SW THIS WEEKEND AND GENERATE OFFSHORE WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS MAY RESULT IN ENHANCED WINDS NEAR
THE COASTAL GAPS...POSSIBLY NEEDING A WIND HEADLINE. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     9 AM PST WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 251655
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
853 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY...EXCEPT FOR SW WASHINGTON. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST LATE WED EVENING AND THEN MOVES
INLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF EAST WIND IN THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER DRAMATICALLY THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH DETAILS VARY A FAIR AMOUNT AMONGST THE
MODELS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...CURRENT FORECAST
TRACKING NICELY THIS MORNING SO MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE.
WAR-FRONTAL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY RIDING OVER THE TOP OF A 500 MB RIDGE
OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO BE AIMED AT WESTERN WASHINGTON. 12 HR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH 16Z HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN
THE S WASHINGTON CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. THESE VALUES ARE CLOSER TO
YESTERDAYS 12Z NAM AND ECMWF VALUES. IT APPEARS THE 12Z GFS WAS TOO
HIGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY S OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER...WITH N OREGON CASCADE AND FOOTHILL AREAS PICKING UP AROUND
0.50 TO 1.25 INCHES IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE OTHER NOTICEABLE IMPACT
IS THE MILD MORNING TEMPERATURES. INLAND VALLEY AREAS HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. GOVERNMENT CAMP...NEAR 4000 FT MSL...WAS
IN THE UPPER 40S AT 16Z.

THE LATEST NOAA BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWS 1 TO
1.25 INCHES DIRECTED AT WESTERN WASHINGTON. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT SHOWING THIS WARM-FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTING N TODAY
AND TONIGHT. POPS AND QPF WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. THE S
INTERIOR VALLEYS STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF FOG FORMATION WITH SUCH A
MILD AIR MASS AND HIGH DEW POINTS. NRN LOCATIONS WILL HAVE PATCHIER
FOG DUE TO MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

THE THANKSGIVING FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE COASTLINE LATE
WED EVENING THEN MIGRATE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THANKSGIVING MORNING.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND CASCADES THANKSGIVING NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
QUITE MILD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH THE SNOW LEVEL WELL
ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN EXPECTED TO SET
UP FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE COLDER NRN
BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM SAGGING SOUTH FRI WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
SETTLING OFF THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS HANDLE THE NRN STREAM MUCH
DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF ALLOWS SOME OF THE COLDER AIR TO SEEP FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST SAT COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS HAS MAJOR RAMIFICATIONS
ON SNOW LEVELS. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE
ECMWF...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO THE LOWEST NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
GORGE BY SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF ALSO MAINTAINS A CLOSED LOW NEAR 35N
130W SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH MOISTURE OVER-RUNNING THE COLD AIR
BOUNDARY. THIS RESULTS IN THE THREAT OF SNOW BELOW 1500 TO 2000 FEET
ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE FORECAST...AND EVEN LOWER IN THE COLUMBIA
GORGE AND S WA CASCADES FOOTHILLS. A LOT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
SAT-MON TIME FRAME THUS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS NOT TOO
HIGH. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...COASTAL SITES SHOULD REMAIN IFR THROUGH TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. KONP HAS THE BEST CHANCE
OF BREAKING OUT OF THE IFR CONDITIONS...BUT THINK ANY IMPROVEMENT
WILL BE BRIEF. RAIN AND MVFR CIGS WILL PRIMARILY BE NORTH OF THE
OREGON BORDER TODAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY. SOME VALLEY AREAS IN THE SOUTH WILL HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS
THIS MORNING...LIKE KCVO AND KEUG. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS WEAKEN AND EXPECT MORE AREAS WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG IS LIKELY FOR THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS SOUTH OF SALEM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR AROUND 22Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. TJ/MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
PERSIST NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A
FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS GRADUALLY LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. SEAS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW 10 FEET THIS MORNING AND HAVE CANCELED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS. THEY WILL HOVER AROUND 9 FEET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE AS A STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH BY THE SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY.
MODELS HINT THAT AREAS SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD MAY HAVE A BRIEF
PERIOD WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. A LARGE LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SW THIS WEEKEND AND GENERATE OFFSHORE WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS MAY RESULT IN ENHANCED WINDS NEAR
THE COASTAL GAPS...POSSIBLY NEEDING A WIND HEADLINE. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     9 AM PST WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 251655
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
853 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY...EXCEPT FOR SW WASHINGTON. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST LATE WED EVENING AND THEN MOVES
INLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF EAST WIND IN THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER DRAMATICALLY THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH DETAILS VARY A FAIR AMOUNT AMONGST THE
MODELS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...CURRENT FORECAST
TRACKING NICELY THIS MORNING SO MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE.
WAR-FRONTAL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY RIDING OVER THE TOP OF A 500 MB RIDGE
OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO BE AIMED AT WESTERN WASHINGTON. 12 HR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH 16Z HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN
THE S WASHINGTON CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. THESE VALUES ARE CLOSER TO
YESTERDAYS 12Z NAM AND ECMWF VALUES. IT APPEARS THE 12Z GFS WAS TOO
HIGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY S OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER...WITH N OREGON CASCADE AND FOOTHILL AREAS PICKING UP AROUND
0.50 TO 1.25 INCHES IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE OTHER NOTICEABLE IMPACT
IS THE MILD MORNING TEMPERATURES. INLAND VALLEY AREAS HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. GOVERNMENT CAMP...NEAR 4000 FT MSL...WAS
IN THE UPPER 40S AT 16Z.

THE LATEST NOAA BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWS 1 TO
1.25 INCHES DIRECTED AT WESTERN WASHINGTON. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT SHOWING THIS WARM-FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTING N TODAY
AND TONIGHT. POPS AND QPF WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. THE S
INTERIOR VALLEYS STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF FOG FORMATION WITH SUCH A
MILD AIR MASS AND HIGH DEW POINTS. NRN LOCATIONS WILL HAVE PATCHIER
FOG DUE TO MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

THE THANKSGIVING FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE COASTLINE LATE
WED EVENING THEN MIGRATE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THANKSGIVING MORNING.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND CASCADES THANKSGIVING NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
QUITE MILD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH THE SNOW LEVEL WELL
ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN EXPECTED TO SET
UP FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE COLDER NRN
BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM SAGGING SOUTH FRI WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
SETTLING OFF THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS HANDLE THE NRN STREAM MUCH
DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF ALLOWS SOME OF THE COLDER AIR TO SEEP FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST SAT COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS HAS MAJOR RAMIFICATIONS
ON SNOW LEVELS. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE
ECMWF...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO THE LOWEST NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
GORGE BY SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF ALSO MAINTAINS A CLOSED LOW NEAR 35N
130W SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH MOISTURE OVER-RUNNING THE COLD AIR
BOUNDARY. THIS RESULTS IN THE THREAT OF SNOW BELOW 1500 TO 2000 FEET
ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE FORECAST...AND EVEN LOWER IN THE COLUMBIA
GORGE AND S WA CASCADES FOOTHILLS. A LOT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
SAT-MON TIME FRAME THUS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS NOT TOO
HIGH. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...COASTAL SITES SHOULD REMAIN IFR THROUGH TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. KONP HAS THE BEST CHANCE
OF BREAKING OUT OF THE IFR CONDITIONS...BUT THINK ANY IMPROVEMENT
WILL BE BRIEF. RAIN AND MVFR CIGS WILL PRIMARILY BE NORTH OF THE
OREGON BORDER TODAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY. SOME VALLEY AREAS IN THE SOUTH WILL HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS
THIS MORNING...LIKE KCVO AND KEUG. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS WEAKEN AND EXPECT MORE AREAS WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG IS LIKELY FOR THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS SOUTH OF SALEM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR AROUND 22Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. TJ/MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
PERSIST NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A
FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS GRADUALLY LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. SEAS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW 10 FEET THIS MORNING AND HAVE CANCELED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS. THEY WILL HOVER AROUND 9 FEET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE AS A STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH BY THE SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY.
MODELS HINT THAT AREAS SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD MAY HAVE A BRIEF
PERIOD WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. A LARGE LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SW THIS WEEKEND AND GENERATE OFFSHORE WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS MAY RESULT IN ENHANCED WINDS NEAR
THE COASTAL GAPS...POSSIBLY NEEDING A WIND HEADLINE. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     9 AM PST WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 251655
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
853 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY...EXCEPT FOR SW WASHINGTON. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST LATE WED EVENING AND THEN MOVES
INLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF EAST WIND IN THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER DRAMATICALLY THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH DETAILS VARY A FAIR AMOUNT AMONGST THE
MODELS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...CURRENT FORECAST
TRACKING NICELY THIS MORNING SO MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE.
WAR-FRONTAL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY RIDING OVER THE TOP OF A 500 MB RIDGE
OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO BE AIMED AT WESTERN WASHINGTON. 12 HR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH 16Z HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN
THE S WASHINGTON CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. THESE VALUES ARE CLOSER TO
YESTERDAYS 12Z NAM AND ECMWF VALUES. IT APPEARS THE 12Z GFS WAS TOO
HIGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY S OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER...WITH N OREGON CASCADE AND FOOTHILL AREAS PICKING UP AROUND
0.50 TO 1.25 INCHES IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE OTHER NOTICEABLE IMPACT
IS THE MILD MORNING TEMPERATURES. INLAND VALLEY AREAS HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. GOVERNMENT CAMP...NEAR 4000 FT MSL...WAS
IN THE UPPER 40S AT 16Z.

THE LATEST NOAA BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWS 1 TO
1.25 INCHES DIRECTED AT WESTERN WASHINGTON. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT SHOWING THIS WARM-FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTING N TODAY
AND TONIGHT. POPS AND QPF WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. THE S
INTERIOR VALLEYS STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF FOG FORMATION WITH SUCH A
MILD AIR MASS AND HIGH DEW POINTS. NRN LOCATIONS WILL HAVE PATCHIER
FOG DUE TO MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

THE THANKSGIVING FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE COASTLINE LATE
WED EVENING THEN MIGRATE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THANKSGIVING MORNING.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND CASCADES THANKSGIVING NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
QUITE MILD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH THE SNOW LEVEL WELL
ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN EXPECTED TO SET
UP FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE COLDER NRN
BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM SAGGING SOUTH FRI WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
SETTLING OFF THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS HANDLE THE NRN STREAM MUCH
DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF ALLOWS SOME OF THE COLDER AIR TO SEEP FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST SAT COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS HAS MAJOR RAMIFICATIONS
ON SNOW LEVELS. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE
ECMWF...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO THE LOWEST NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
GORGE BY SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF ALSO MAINTAINS A CLOSED LOW NEAR 35N
130W SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH MOISTURE OVER-RUNNING THE COLD AIR
BOUNDARY. THIS RESULTS IN THE THREAT OF SNOW BELOW 1500 TO 2000 FEET
ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE FORECAST...AND EVEN LOWER IN THE COLUMBIA
GORGE AND S WA CASCADES FOOTHILLS. A LOT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
SAT-MON TIME FRAME THUS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS NOT TOO
HIGH. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...COASTAL SITES SHOULD REMAIN IFR THROUGH TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. KONP HAS THE BEST CHANCE
OF BREAKING OUT OF THE IFR CONDITIONS...BUT THINK ANY IMPROVEMENT
WILL BE BRIEF. RAIN AND MVFR CIGS WILL PRIMARILY BE NORTH OF THE
OREGON BORDER TODAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY. SOME VALLEY AREAS IN THE SOUTH WILL HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS
THIS MORNING...LIKE KCVO AND KEUG. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS WEAKEN AND EXPECT MORE AREAS WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG IS LIKELY FOR THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS SOUTH OF SALEM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR AROUND 22Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. TJ/MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
PERSIST NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A
FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS GRADUALLY LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. SEAS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW 10 FEET THIS MORNING AND HAVE CANCELED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS. THEY WILL HOVER AROUND 9 FEET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE AS A STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH BY THE SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY.
MODELS HINT THAT AREAS SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD MAY HAVE A BRIEF
PERIOD WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. A LARGE LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SW THIS WEEKEND AND GENERATE OFFSHORE WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS MAY RESULT IN ENHANCED WINDS NEAR
THE COASTAL GAPS...POSSIBLY NEEDING A WIND HEADLINE. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     9 AM PST WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 251220
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
420 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and rainy conditions are expected today with the southern and
central Idaho Panhandle receiving rain for much of the day. Snow
levels will be on the rise tonight into Wednesday bringing a break
in the heavy mountain snow. A breezy and wet but warm
Thanksgiving Day will give way to a colder weather pattern for the
holiday weekend with the mountains receiving several rounds of
snow. Snow levels will fall to valley floors by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and Tonight: Rain is expected for most of the day and into
the night over the central and southern Idaho Panhandle. We will
be monitoring rain gauges over Shoshone, Latah, and Benewah
counties closely over the next 24 hours. Rain amounts today and
tonight will have a good chance of exceeding an inch over the
southern half of Shoshone county with a half to three quarters of
an inch in Benewah and Latah counties. Additional run-off from
mountain snow melt and poor absorption due to potentially frozen
ground may cause creeks and small streams to rise during the next
day or two.

A plume of deep level moisture is overtopping a flat upper level
ridge of high pressure this morning. The 2 AM water vapor
satellite imagery shows a well defined shortwave tracking through
southern Alberta leading to an increase in synoptic scale lift
over the Idaho Panhandle today. The Blue Mountains, Camas Prairie,
Clearwater Mountains and rising terrain of the Idaho Palouse will
be orographically favored as moisture rich northwesterly flow
remains focused over these areas through this evening. The strong
mid-level flow will also produce significant "slop-over"
precipitation over the East Slopes of the Cascades today in places
like Mazama, Stehekin and Plain. The snow pack in the high
elevations of the Cascades is probably deep enough to soak up a
good portion of the rain, but we will be closely monitoring the
Stehekin River and the smaller tributaries of the Wenatchee and
Similkameen over the next couple of days.

A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect over the mountains of
Northeast Washington and the mountains of the Northern and Central
Panhandle. Precipitation intensities have decreased around Priest
Lake, Metaline Falls and Sandpoint this morning as the mid-level
flow has become more northwesterly cutting off much of the
isentropic lift. More mid and high elevation snow is expected
tonight, but we may discontinue the advisory today since there
will be about 12 to 15 hours of little additional accumulation.

Wednesday: A warm front will surge northward on Wednesday pushing
the axis of heaviest precipitation into southern British Columbia.
Snow levels over north Idaho and northeast Washington will also
rise above 5000 feet on Wednesday leading to a transition from
snow to rain over the mountains around Sandpoint and Priest Lake.
Mild southerly winds will push temperatures into the upper 40s to
upper 50s region wide. The mild temperatures should improve road
conditions over the passes and travel conditions should be good
leading up to a busy holiday travel period Wednesday and Thursday.
/GKoch

Thursday through Saturday night...Flattened out ridging in the
region at this point allows the progressive flow to continue on.
The flow becomes more progressive and the ridge continues to
flatten and allow the baroclinic band/moisture source feeding up
into it to sag south as well and allow for cool northerly winds to
filter down behind it but slowly. So the moisture streaming
through the flat ridge keep high pops over parts of the East
Slopes of the North Cacades, Northern Mountains, and the Idaho
Panhandle with hint of a rain-shadow in the form of lower pops in
between for a good chunk of the Columbia Basin and a few other
lowland and valley locations close to it. Late Friday night into
Saturday the cold air and northerly winds behind the exiting
baroclinic band make good progress into the region allowing for a
substantial decrease in pops from north to south along with the
cooling. If all goes according to the models the baroclinic
band/frontal zone remains to the South of most of the forecast
area Saturday night allowing for further decrease in pops and
trending toward a much drier forecast to the north with continued
cold northerly/northeasterly winds maintaining influence. Forecast
temperatures depict this scenario with a gradual cooling trend.
Other issues of note would be the continuation of breezy/gusty
south to southwest winds Thursday through Friday with due to upper
level jet placement nearby. /Pelatti

Sunday through Tuesday: This period is expected to be wet and
cold. A Low pressure system off the coast of Oregon bring
widespread showers to the region. The temperatures are expected to
be near freezing and the precip is expected to be a wet snow as of
now. As the period gets closer and more model runs, this will
hopefully become more clear on the precip type. By late Monday, a
dry trough pushes into the region from the Northwest and decreases
the precip chances for Tuesday. The temperatures for this period
are expected to have highs near 30 and lows in the mid teens. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A persistent rain is expected for southeast Washington
and the southern Idaho Panhandle today into early evening. The
abundance of moisture will likely produce low stratus over much of
north Idaho and the eastern third of Washington. Ceilings between
500 and 1500 feet will likely occur at KGEG, KSFF, KCOE and KPUW
until a warm front arrives after 06z. Increased mixing and the
rain retreating northward should help to improve ceilings late
tonight. /GKoch


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        41  37  48  38  49  38 /  60  70  30  30  40  30
Coeur d`Alene  41  36  46  36  46  38 /  70  90  50  40  40  30
Pullman        49  44  52  39  52  41 / 100 100  10  10  30  30
Lewiston       53  45  56  42  54  43 / 100  90  10  10  20  40
Colville       39  33  44  35  45  36 /  40  80  40  60  60  30
Sandpoint      39  33  42  33  42  35 /  50  90  80  70  70  50
Kellogg        39  35  42  36  42  36 / 100 100  80  50  60  60
Moses Lake     47  40  53  39  53  39 /  30  20   0  10  10  20
Wenatchee      46  39  50  38  48  39 /  30  20  10  10  30  30
Omak           39  34  44  34  43  34 /  80  60  20  30  40  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for
     Northeast Mountains.

&&

$$




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