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000
FXUS66 KPQR 251636
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
910 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL MOVE N UP THE OREGON COAST TODAY
THEN MOVE INLAND OVER SW WA TOWARDS PUGET SOUND THIS EVENING
BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE LOW TURNING THE FLOW ONSHORE TONIGHT
AND SUN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE IN MON AND TUE AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...THE MAIN CHANGE THIS MORNING WAS TO EXPAND HIGH
WIND WARNING COVERAGE INTO THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST RANGE...WILLAPA
HILLS AND THE ENTIRE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND MOVE UP THE STARTING
TIME OF EXISTING HIGH WIND WARNINGS ALONG THE OREGON COAST.

A LOW PRESSURE SOMEWHERE IN THE UPPER 980S MB RANGE IS SLIDING NORTH
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST WHERE IT IS APPROXIMATELY
75 TO 100 MILES OFFSHORE. WINDS HAVE BEEN BLASTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
OREGON COAST AND HIGHER LOCATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHWEST OREGON. A
NUMBER OF STATIONS IN THIS GENERAL REGION HAVE REPORTED GUSTS BETWEEN
60 AND 100 MPH SO FAR. WHILE SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY FILL FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...THE RAP
ACTUALLY HOLDS THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE STEADY FOR THE NEXT
6 TO 8 HOURS...EVEN DEEPENING IT SLIGHTLY TO 987MB BEFORE IT MAKES
LANDFALL SOMEWHERE AROUND PACIFIC OR GRAYS HARBOR COUNTIES IN
WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP ALSO PEAKS THE KPDX TO KEUG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND 10 MB AND IS JUST OVER 20 MB BETWEEN KAST
AND KBOK THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP ALSO SUGGESTS A 3 HOUR PRESSURE
RISE OF GREATER THAN 9 MB PUSHING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COUPLED WITH AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON
TODAY...HIGH WINDS ALOFT SHOULD HAVE AN EASIER TIME MIXING DOWN TO
THE SURFACE.

WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH FOR CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND 75 TO
80 MPH GUSTS ALONG BEACHES AND HEADLANDS SHOULD BEGIN SHORTLY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OF THESE LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE
SLOWER TO START ALONG THE NORTH OREGON COAST...BUT SHOULD BEGIN
AROUND MIDDAY. FURTHER INLAND ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WIND
GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH APPEAR LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 60
MPH CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST WINDS APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO
IMPACT THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN 1 PM AND 5 PM. IT WILL CERTAINLY
REMAIN BREEZY AFTER THIS TIME FRAME...BUT THAT IS THE TIME OF
HIGHEST CONCERN RIGHT NOW. GIVEN FOLIAGE...THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY
SATURATED...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS...OPTED TO
ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ALL THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WHERE POWER
OUTAGES AND DOWN TREE POTENTIAL APPEARS HIGHER THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN
QUITE SOME TIME DESPITE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT WIND SPEEDS.

GIVEN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS UNCERTAIN...WILL KEEP THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT GOING FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST...AND
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR ZONES.
HOWEVER...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR THESE ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND MODEL DATA IN
CASE WARNINGS APPEAR NECESSARY FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

THE MENTION OF THUNDER WAS ALSO EXPANDED INTO INTERIOR LOCATIONS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL MONITOR RADAR CLOSELY FOR ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THAT WARRANT SHORT FUSED WARNINGS. /NEUMAN


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE LOW WAS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 40N
129W AT 08Z MOVING NE. BUOY 46002 SHOWED A PRES OF 990 MB N OF THE
LOW...SUGGESTING A CENTRAL PRES AT LEAST A FEW MB BELOW 990. OVERALL
PREFER THE ECMWF FOR PLACEMENT AND PRES...ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE COME
AROUND TO A MUCH MORE COHESIVE PICTURE OF LOW. A SOUTHERLY JET ALONG
THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUGGESTS A TURN TO THE N FOR THE LOW
TODAY...WHICH MODELS NOW UNIFORMLY BRING UP JUST OFF THE OREGON
COAST TODAY WHILE BEGINNING TO FILL. THERE IS A LITTLE SPREAD IN
WHERE THE MODELS BRING THE LOW INLAND...BUT CONSENSUS SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THE LOW MAKING LANDFALL ON THE S WA COAST BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z
TODAY BEFORE HEADING TOWARDS THE S PUGET SOUND AREA. WITH SURFACE
PRES GRADIENTS GENERALLY DEPICTED AROUND 14 TO 16 MB DOWN THE OREGON
COAST AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND...WILL POST HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THE
CENTRAL AND N OREGON COAST AND THE N OREGON COAST RANGE. S WA COAST
IS A LITTLE IFFY BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
LOW. WITH THE BEST GUESS FOR THE LOW MOVING INLAND OVER PACIFIC
COUNTY WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WARNINGS FOR THE S WA COAST AND WILLAPA
HILLS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY ULTIMATELY REQUIRE A WARNING LATER TODAY. A
THE TRACK OF THE LOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE S SOUND SUGGESTS WINDY
CONDITIONS EXTENDING INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND I-5 CORRIDOR
LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. MODELS INDICATING ABOUT A 6 MB PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN KEUG AND KPDX AS THE LOW PASSES BY TO THE
N..PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING BUT GUSTS TO 50 MPH
NONETHELESS. OVERALL THE PEAK WINDS TODAY AND THIS EVENING EXPECTED
TO BE RELATIVELY QUICK TO PASS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY AND
COLD FRONT FOLLOWS QUICKLY.

LIGHTING INDICATED ON LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORKS TO THE N OF THE
LOW EARLY THIS MORNING OFFSHORE. WILL ADD A MENTION OF THUNDER TO
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS THE LOW LIFTS N...AND INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN SW WA LATE TODAY. WITH THE WARM FRONT ALREADY N AND THE
LOW PASSING BY TO THE N...RAINFALL IS NOT A COMPLETE GIMMIE
TODAY...ESP POINTS FURTHER INLAND. BETTER POPS WILL COME TONIGHT IN
THE WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT AS THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE AND
OROGRAPHICS ADD LIFT TO THE WINDWARD MOUNTAINS. THE COOLER AIR
FOLLOWING THE FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 4500
FT BY SUN MORNING...IN TIME TO EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
FOR THE PASSES IN THE OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS.

A WEAK RIDGE SUN NIGHT WILL BRING A SLOW END TO THE SHOWERS AS WELL
AS SOME COOLER TEMPS. THE NEXT SYSTEM THOUGH...THIS ONE TRACKING E
ACROSS THE N PACIFIC TOWARDS BC...WILL BRING THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN
TO THE N PART OF THE FORECAST AREA MON IN AN AREA OF MOIST WARM AIR
ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THE LONG TERM
STARTS OUT WET WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MON NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM CONTAINS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANA...THAT
SKIRTED HAWAII LAST WEEK. MODELS MAY BE UNDER DOING THE  POTENTIAL
WITH THIS ONE. A STRONG JET STREAM WILL REMAIN DIRECTED AT WA AND
NRN OREGON THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MODELS SHOW LARGE VARIATIONS BEGINNING
WED...BUT EXPECT THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. THE ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW A TREND TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP LOW IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA AMPLIFIES THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...LOW PRES OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL PUSH NE TODAY AND
THEN INLAND OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG S
TO SW WINDS ALOFT TODAY...WITH GUSTY S TO SW WINDS DOWN TO GROUND
THROUGH 03Z. STRONGEST WINDS 20Z TO 01Z. MOSTLY VFR...BUT WILL
HAVE POCKETS OF MVFR UNDER SHOWERS. EXPECT ISOLATED TSTMS...MAINLY
FROM COAST RANGE AND WESTWARD. CONDITIONS RELAX AFTER 03Z...WITH
CONSIDERABLE LOW VFR AND MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THIS AM...
AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. MOSTLY VFR...BUT WILL HAVE
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND GUSTY
AFTER 17Z...WITH STRONGEST WINDS BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z WHEN GUSTS
MAY REACH 40 KT AT TIMES.     ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...A 985 MB LOW IS NOW ABOUT 200 MILES WEST OF NORTH
BEND AND IS MOVING THE NORTHEAST. LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE
JUST NORTH OF WILLAPA BAY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOLID SOUTHERLY
GALES ON THE WATERS TODAY. STRONGEST WINDS IN 2 TO 5 PM PERIOD AT
WHICH TIME MAY HAVE BRIEF COASTAL JET DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL TURN
WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND EASE THIS EVENING.

SEAS GENERALLY 10 TO 12 FT THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD BUILD QUICKLY
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BUOY OFF PORT ORFORD NOW AT
27 FT...SO GIVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN BOOSTING WAVE HEIGHTS ON OREGON
COASTAL WATERS FOR TODAY. WILL SEE PEAK OUT NEAR 20 FT FROM ABOUT
TILLAMOOK SOUTHWARD...AND 15 TO 18 FT FURTHER TO THE N. SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS WINDS DROP. ROCKEY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM TODAY FOR WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM TODAY FOR ALL OF THE COAST AND
       COAST RANGE.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM TODAY
       FOR LOWER COLUMBIA.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM TODAY FOR CLARK COUNTY.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM TODAY FOR WILLAPA HILLS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM TODAY FOR I-5
       CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

PZ...GALE WARNING TODAY ON ALL CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL WATERS...
OR FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE AND OUT 60 NM.
     GALE WARNING TODAY AND THIS EVENING ON S WASH/N ORE
       COASTAL WATERS...OR FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD
       AND OUT 60 NM.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
       CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&



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000
FXUS66 KSEW 251626
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP LOW WILL REACH THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
FILL AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE
SHOWERY. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY. WET AND BREEZY
WEATHER IS LIKELY AT TIMES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A DEEP LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TODAY...REACHING THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVING INLAND OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...EASING LATE. SHOWERS WILL
FOLLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT.

THE DEPTH AND TRACK OF THE INCOMING LOW PRESSURE CENTER VARY
SLIGHTLY IN THE LATEST MODELS. MOST AGREE ON THE BASIC IDEA THAT THE
LOW WILL MOVE ONTO THE COAST AROUND KQHM 23Z-01Z...THEN FILL AND
MOVE NORTHEAST UNTIL IT CROSSES ADMIRALTY INLET AROUND 03Z. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD
INLAND THIS EVENING.

THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND OVER THE SEATTLE AREAS WILL DEPEND ON THE
NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE KPDX-KBLI GRADIENT VARIES FROM
ABOUT 10 TO ABOUT 14 MB IN THE LATEST MODELS. IN GENERAL HIGH WIND
STARTS AROUND 12 OR 13 MB. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE IDEA OF AROUND A 12
MB GRADIENT FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING...IMPLYING HIGH END
ADVISORY WINDS OR 20-35 MPH GUSTING TO 50 MPH WITH PERHAPS A FEW
EXPOSED AREAS GOING A LITTLE HIGHER. A WIND ADVISORY COVERS MOST OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTH.

AS FAR AS WEATHER...A RAIN BAND IS MOVING THROUGH THE METRO AREA
THIS MORNING BUT RADAR INDICATES THERE COULD BE A BREAK OF A FEW
HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT
WILL BE HEAVIER ON THE COAST. RAIN WILL FALL EVERYWHERE TONIGHT
BEFORE TURNING MORE SHOWERY LATE. A DECENT CONVERGENCE ZONE IS
LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE PATTERN REMAINS SHOWERY
THE REST OF SUNDAY...WITH SOME SHOWERS STILL AROUND MONDAY. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
PAC NW ON TUESDAY WITH THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT BRINGING RAIN BACK
INTO WRN WA. POPS WERE BOOSTED AS MODELS MOSTLY AGREE ON THIS AND
RAIN SHADOWING WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. A 985-990 MB SURFACE LOW WILL
START TO FILL AS IT TRACKS E-NE ACROSS NRN VANCOUVER ISLAND BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE STRONG SE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
SO WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE PROBABLE FROM AROUND WHIDBEY ISLAND
NWD AND ALONG THE COAST. GRADIENTS NEVER TURN SWLY THROUGH PUGET
SOUND SO MUCH LESS WIND EXPECTED HERE. THIS WILL BE A WET SYSTEM
WITH 24 HOUR RAIN AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES LIKELY IN THE OLYMPICS AND
CASCADES...ESPECIALLY N.

THERE WILL BE A LULL IN SHOWERS BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT ON BRINGING ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. BUT MODELS ARE IMPLYING THIS SYSTEM WILL SPLIT...SO IT MAY
NOT BE WELL ORGANIZED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN AT TIMES THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SKOKOMISH RIVER APPEARS TO BE BOTTOMING OUT NEAR 15
FEET THIS MORNING. IT WILL RISE AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO HEAVY RAIN
TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THE RIVER WILL GET CLOSE TO FLOOD
STAGE LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT. FOR NOW THE FORECAST TAKES THE STAGE AT
POTLATCH TO BETWEEN 15.5 AND 16 FEET. FLOOD STAGE IS 16.5 FEET.

A BREAK IN THE RAIN WILL ALLOW THE SKOKOMISH TO RECEDE RIVER MONDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BRING 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN
TO THE SKOKOMISH BASIN. WILL NEED TO KEEP A WATCH ON THIS BUT THE
CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS THE RIVER BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

OTHERWISE...FLOODING ON OTHER RIVERS IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS. BURKE

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
TODAY...THEN VEER TO WESTERLY TONIGHT AS A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND ITS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE.

WE HAVE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND FOG. CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM REACHES THE AREA...AND AS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW FOLLOWS
THE FRONT. THERE COULD ALSO BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
COAST...BUT THEY ARE UNLIKELY OVER THE WESTERN WASHINGTON INTERIOR.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING WITH
AREAS OF SUSTAINED 20 TO 30 KT WINDS AND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

KSEA...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VARIABLE TO 15 KT TODAY...BUT THEY
SHOULD TREND TOWARD NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY AS A SURFACE LOW
APPROACHES WESTERN WASHINGTON FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 20-30 KT GUSTING 40
KT. WINDS WILL PROBABLY PEAK AROUND MIDNIGHT.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...A 992 MB LOW WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
TODAY...MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR
THIS. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS
EVENING...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY IN ITS WAKE. GALE
FORCE WEST OR SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS...THE ENTIRE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND PUGET SOUND AND
HOOD CANAL. HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE A GOOD BET FOR
ADMIRALTY INLET AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.

HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL REACH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE GALES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOME INLAND WATERS.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COAST...SOUTHWEST INTERIOR...EAST PUGET
     SOUND LOWLANDS...AND PUGET SOUND/HOOD CANAL AREA.
PZ...GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS...STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...PUGET
     SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ADMIRALTY INLET AND NORTHERN INLAND
     WATERS.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





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000
FXUS66 KOTX 251546
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
846 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A series of systems will pass through the region during the period.
The first system today is expected to bring the threat of isolated
thunderstorms and high winds to the region. Remnants of Hurricane Ana
on Tuesday will deliver widespread rainfall to the Inland
Northwest. Another rain producing system is possible by next
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Made a few updates to the forecast this morning based on radar and
satellite trends. The shield of high clouds from the baroclinic
leaf is slowing moving across extreme eastern Wasington and north
Idaho. This should give much of the region partly sunny skies with
not much in the way of precipitation for the morning and web cams
show little if any fog. The only exception being in the Cascade
valleys where the high clouds departed early enough and
raditational cooling led to early morning fog. Mild temperatures
are expected as the region remains in the warm sector for much of
the day. The cold front will be slowly approaching from the
southwest and bring a a swath of showers to the Cascades by midday
and spreading eastward through the afternoon. There is a small
chance of embedded thunderstorms with the showers which could kick
up some winds at times./rfox

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A warm front lifting into eastern WA and north ID will
bring areas of mainly light rain. The band of light rain has
lifted north of all TAF sites. Low level moisture and light winds
behind the warm front will promote low stratus and patchy fog for
KEAT and KMWH through at least 18Z Saturday. Confidence is low
that MVFR cigs may develop at KLWS but light downsloping winds
may keep VFR conditions there. Shower threat develops again
through the afternoon Saturday. This will be accompanied by
increased winds with gusts increasing to 25 to 30 kts after 03Z
Sunday.


12Z TAFS: The warm front lifted north with light rain in most
areas. Now that we are in the warm sector, expected a bit more fog
but the high clouds and breezy conditions are preventing any
widespread fog from developing. The exception is KEAT where a IFR
ceilings persist. This morning we expect conditions to improve
briefly before winds in most TAF locations turn southeast and
eventually southwest. The approaching cold front will bring
widespread rain showers with the very slight chance of
thunderstorms to the eastern sites...not enough of a threat to
include in the TAF. Ceilings and visibilities will remain marginal
to VFR in rain as winds continue to turn southwesterly and very
gusty by late evening. Updates to TAFs at 12z were limited to
adjusting for improved morning ceilings and adding stronger winds
in the last 6 hours.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        64  44  52  36  50  38 /  20  70  30  10  10  20
Coeur d`Alene  65  43  52  36  48  34 /  20  70  40  30  20  20
Pullman        69  43  52  37  51  36 /  20  60  30  20  10  10
Lewiston       71  48  58  41  56  40 /   0  60  20  20  10  10
Colville       62  44  53  32  51  35 /  30  80  50  20  10  20
Sandpoint      62  43  49  34  46  33 /  10  80  70  30  20  20
Kellogg        62  42  45  36  43  31 /  10  90  50  50  30  20
Moses Lake     64  46  59  35  55  40 /  20  50  10  10   0  30
Wenatchee      62  43  58  40  56  43 /  30  50  20  10   0  50
Omak           59  41  54  34  52  39 /  60  60  30  10   0  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 3 PM PDT Sunday for
     Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Spokane Area-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 251308
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014...CORRECTED TYPOS

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OFFSHORE WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG
EAST WIND ALONG THE CASCADE FOOTHILL EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT WILL ALSO
BE WET WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE
SHOWERY. MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ADVANCING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. WET AND BREEZY WEATHER IS LIKELY AT TIMES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WARM FRONT LIFTED NWD OVERNIGHT AND RADAR SHOWS MOST
THE RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED OVER EXTREME NRN AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE CROSS CASCADE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO CLIMB WITH SEA-EAT NEAR NEAR
-7.5 MB AT 3 AM. THE WRFGFS-4KM SHOWS GUSTY EAST WINDS ALONG THE
FOOTHILL CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE EASING. MESO WEST
OBS ARE SHOWING GUSTS TO NEAR 35-40 MPH AT SITES AROUND ENUMCLAW.
WITH THE CLIMBING GRADIENT THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD REACH 45 MPH AT
TIMES SO THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM PDT. THE
BELLEVUE ZONE WAS REMOVED AS STRONGER WINDS SHOW NO SIGNS OF
EXTENDING THAT FAR.

THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OFF
THE NRN CA COAST. MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON THE
COMPLEX STRUCTURE OF THIS LOW AS IT ORGANIZES AND MOVES NE TOWARD
OUR AREA. ITS CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ALREADY DOWN TO NEAR 985 MB AND A
BIT MORE DEEPENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN THE
NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES WHICH OFTEN INDICATE A DEEPENING SYSTEM.
THESE STRIKES ARE ALSO OCCURRING TO THE N/NE OF THE LOW WHICH SHOULD
GENERALLY TELL THE DIRECTION THE LOW WILL TRACK...IN THIS CASE TO
THE NE.

LATEST 00Z/06Z MODELS ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT SO THERE IS
SLIGHTLY MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THE LOW WILL CONSOLIDATE RAPIDLY TODAY
AND TRACK INLAND NEAR HOQUIAM. EVEN THE 00Z NAM12 WHICH WAS STILL
BRINGING THE LOW TOO FAR S FOR WIND HAS SHIFTED N WITH THE LOW TRACK
ON THE 06Z RUN...BRINGING IT NE THROUGH PUGET SOUND THIS EVENING.
VIRTUALLY ALL THE OTHER MODELS SHOW THIS CONSOLIDATION AND GENERAL
TRACK WITH ONLY SLIGHT VARIATIONS. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST ALARMING
WITH ITS MORE N-NELY TRACK JUST W OF PUGET SOUND RESULTING IN LOTS
OF SLY GRADIENT...+14 MB PDX-BLI...ALL THE WAY UP TO THE N INTERIOR.
THIS SOLUTION WOULD PROBABLY GIVE HIGH END ADVISORY FOR MUCH OR ALL
OF THE INTERIOR. MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS SHOW A MUCH SHORTER PERIOD OF
SWLY WINDS WITH THE INITIAL SHARP PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE LOW LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM12 AND WRFGFS-4KM BOTH INDICATE 3
HOUR PRESSURE RISES OF +8 TO +9 MB FROM THE COAST TO THE SW
INTERIOR/PUGET SOUND REGION BEHIND THE LOW. THOSE MODELS THEN SURGE
THE WESTERLIES DOWN THE STRAIT AND PRODUCE STRONG WINDS INTO WHIDBEY
ISLAND AND MAYBE THE HEADLANDS OF THE ERN STRAIT. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD CUT OFF STRONGER WINDS TO THE S...SO PUGET SOUND SWD WOULD
HAVE WINDS EASING BY MIDNIGHT. NOT ALL MODELS AGREE ON THESE DETAILS
BUT THIS IS THE BEST GUESS SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE COAST...SW INTERIOR...PUGET SOUND/HOOD CANAL...AND
THE ERN STRAIT/WHIDBEY ISLAND ZONES. MOST MODELS CUT OFF STRONGER
WINDS BEFORE REACHING EVERETT SO THAT ZONE WILL BE LEFT OUT OF THE
ADVISORY.

STRONG POST-LOW ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN
CHANGING TO SHOWERS. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID 50S...THOUGH IT WILL FEEL COLDER GIVEN THE BREEZE.

.LONG TERM...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE PAC NW ON TUESDAY
WITH THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT BRINGING RAIN BACK INTO WRN WA. POPS
WERE BOOSTED AS MODELS MOSTLY AGREE ON THIS AND RAIN SHADOWING WILL
NOT BE AN ISSUE. A 985-990 MB SURFACE LOW WILL START TO FILL AS IT
TRACKS E-NE ACROSS NRN VANCOUVER ISLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE STRONG SE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SO WIND ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS ARE PROBABLE FROM AROUND WHIDBEY ISLAND NWD AND ALONG
THE COAST. GRADIENTS NEVER TURN SWLY THROUGH PUGET SOUND SO MUCH
LESS WIND EXPECTED HERE. THIS WILL BE A WET SYSTEM WITH 24 HOUR RAIN
AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES LIKELY IN THE OLYMPICS AND
CASCADES...ESPECIALLY N.

THERE WILL BE A LULL IN SHOWERS BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT ON BRINGING ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. BUT MODELS ARE IMPLYING THIS SYSTEM WILL SPLIT...SO IT MAY
NOT BE WELL ORGANIZED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN AT TIMES THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WILL RISE AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO
HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. SINCE IT IS STILL RUNNING HIGH FROM
THE PREVIOUS RAINFALL...IT IS POSSIBLE THE RIVER WILL GET CLOSE TO
FLOOD STAGE LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT. FOR NOW THE FORECAST TAKES THE
STAGE AT POTLATCH TO BETWEEN 15.5 AND 16 FEET. FLOOD STAGE IS 16.5
FEET.

A BREAK IN RAIN WILL HELP WATER RECEDE ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER
MONDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING UP TO 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN
TO THE SKOKOMISH BASIN. WILL NEED TO KEEP A WATCH ON THIS BUT
CURRENT PROJECTIONS KEEP THE SKOKOMISH RIVER BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

OTHERWISE...FLOODING ON OTHER RIVERS IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WILL MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL MOISTEN WITH VFR CIGS THIS
MORNING LOWERING TO PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS WITH SPOTTY IFR CIGS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS ASTORIA AROUND 21Z AND ACROSS W WA
00Z-06Z. STRONG W-SW FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS IN SPOTS...SW20-35G45KT. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE SW PART.

KSEA...THE TERMINAL IS IN A LULL AT 11Z BETWEEN A WARM FRONT AND THE
COLD FRONT JUST OFFSHORE. RAIN WILL RETURN 15Z-19Z AS THE COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE AFTER THAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
AND SURFACE LOW FOLLOW. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEARS THE AREA WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH BKN030-050 THROUGH
AROUND 22Z THEN REACH THE MVFR RANGE AFTER THAT. WINDS ALOFT
FL050-FL100 WILL BE S 30-55KT FROM 15Z-00Z. N SURFACE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY 5-10KT AFTER 15Z AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
SURFACE WINDS SW15-30G35KT WILL DEVELOP AFTER 00Z. KAM

&&

.MARINE...A 995 MB SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. A 990 MB
LOW WILL MOVE NE ACROSS ASTORIA THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER PUGET SOUND
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS A BIT OF A COMPLEX PATTERN AND MODELS
ARE NOT QUITE IN LOCK STEP WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...TRACK...AND WIND
STRENGTH IN VARIOUS LOCATIONS. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE. THE
FIRST LOW SHOULD RAISE SOUTHERLY GALES ALONG THE COAST WITH SCA
WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE INLAND WATERS. THE SECOND STRONGER LOW
SHOULD GENERATE W-NW GALES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND SHOULD RAISE
FULL GALES IN THE STRAIT THIS EVENING. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE LOW
SHOULD RAISE WINDS IN PUGET SOUND BUT GALES ARE A LITTLE MORE
TENUOUS HERE. MODELS HAVE THE WEAKEST SCA LEVEL WINDS OVER ADMIRALTY
INLET AND THE N INLAND WATERS...BUT GALES ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION EITHER.

AFTER THE SECOND LOW EXITS TO THE NE TONIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD INLAND OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
ANOTHER VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY...THEN MOVE INLAND MONDAY EVENING. GALES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
COAST AND N INTERIOR. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS THROUGH 9 AM
     PDT THIS MORNING.
     WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COAST...SOUTHWEST
     INTERIOR...EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS...AND PUGET SOUND/HOOD
     CANAL FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
PZ...GALE WARNING COAST...STRAIT AND PUGET SOUND.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ADMIRALTY INLET AND NORTHERN INLAND
     WATERS.
&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
















000
FXUS66 KOTX 251140
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
440 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SYNOPSIS...

A series of systems will pass through the region during the period.
The first system today is expected to bring the threat of isolated
thunderstorms and high winds to the region. Remnants of Hurricane Ana
on Tuesday will deliver widespread rainfall to the Inland
Northwest. Another rain producing system is possible by next
weekend.

&&

DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight...
Taking a look at the big picture across the country, the one
feature that really stands out is the deep upper level trof
approaching the west coast. This vigorous system will usher in
quite a bit of high impact weather over the next 36 hours.

OVERVIEW:
At 12z, a 986 mb low is moving rapidly northeast toward the
Washington and Oregon coast...and will make landfall this
afternoon at about 993 mb between Astoria and Aberdeen. The warm
front that lifted north into British Columbia overnight will be
replaced by a cold front ahead of the center of low pressure.
Before the front pushes inland, much of the Inland Northwest will
see at least a partial clearing. The clearing skies coupled with
the warm temperatures should further destabilize the
atmosphere...resulting in the possibility of isolated
thunderstorms.

THUNDERSTORMS?
But first, a line of showers will develop along the cold
front...ushering clouds quickly back across the Inland Northwest
early this afternoon. The cold air aloft will further destabilize
the atmosphere leading to numerous showers by the evening hours
with the aforementioned isolated rumble of thunder. While we
painted much of eastern Washington and the entire Idaho panhandle
with isolated thunderstorms, the best chance will be late this
evening over extreme southeastern Washington and the central
panhandle. The models have not been too aggressive with the
chances of thunder but after bumping up afternoon high temperatures
due to the anticipated clearing in the warm sector, the NAM and
SREF especially are showing enough instability to warrant the
isolated chance. Either way, widespread showers will impact the
region late afternoon through the evening hours with localized
heavy downpours possible.

WIND:
The biggest impact from this storm system will be the wind. As
the main line of showers pass through the region late in the
evening, the pressure gradient will tighten considerably. Common
with this storm path, a lee-side low will develop east of the
Canadian Rockies over Alberta. The low that moves inland this
afternoon will eventually merge with the lee-side low. High
pressure building southwest of the region coupled with the 994 mb
low to our northeast will squeeze the pressure gradient and result
in strong winds. A wind advisory that was issued earlier will be
updated momentarily to include Spokane metro with gusts to 50 mph
not out of the question. The peak of the event will be
overnight...midnight through sunrise. In a way we are fortunate
that the timing is not during max heating. The overnight hours
will work against the strongest winds mixing down to the surface.
Despite the fortunate timing, we are still anticipating
several impacts from this storm.

IMPACTS:
The main impacts from this storm will be the possibility of light
weight objects being picked up and thrown by the gusty winds. This
includes branches that will likely fall on power lines and result
in local power outages. Caution is also advised on the roadways
with dangerous crosswinds affecting high profile vehicles. Lastly
and not nearly as important...but this storm will bring an end to
much of the very scenic fall foliage.
/AB

Sunday through Monday: Winds will be on the decrease during Sunday
as the deep low pressure system moves east of our area. These
situations are often tricky. The pressure gradient is decreasing
which should allow winds to decrease, but the daytime heating
allows more momentum mixing from aloft. Winds will be breezy to
windy through much of the day. Showers will mainly be confined to
the Panhandle and northeast Mountains, but there`s actually enough
afternoon instability to allow showers to develop over the eastern
Basin. These showers should die off Sunday evening.

As the upper trough swings through the area, the flow on the
backside of the trough turns to northwesterly, allowing cooler air
to filter into the Inland Northwest. This will result in the
coolest day of the Autumn so far. A few locations may not reach
50F on Monday. The Panhandle and extreme eastern WA will probably
start the day with a stratus layer that will slowly burn off by
midday. RJ

Monday Night through Wednesday: A southwest flow pattern will
carry the remnants of Hurricane Ana through the Pacific Northwest
during this period. The Eastern side of the Cascades will begin to
receive precip beginning Monday night. The moisture will continue
to progress West to East through the Inland Northwest on Tuesday
morning. With snow levels expected to be around four to five
thousand feet, the higher elevations could receive a light dusting
of snow with rain for the valleys. This system is expected to
bring more than half an inch of precip to the Cascades. The
Waterville Plateau could see a couple tenths of an inch. The
extreme Eastern Washington and Idaho Panhandle could get around a
quarter of an inch of rain. Winds with this system will remain
fairly light as gusts could reach around 18 MPH. High temperatures
will range from the mid 40s to 50s for most habitated locations.

Thursday through Saturday: The models disagree with this period.
The ECMWF is keeping a strong ridge over the region than the GFS
for this period. The GFS will begin to bring another round of
precip into the region on Thursday afternoon while the ECMWF keeps
it West of the Cascades until late Saturday. The POPs were
dropped to a slight chance for most of the Columbia Basin.
Temperatures for this period will still be several degrees above
normal with highs near 60 and lows near 40. /JDC

AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A warm front lifting into eastern WA and north ID will
bring areas of mainly light rain. The band of light rain has
lifted north of all TAF sites. Low level moisture and light winds
behind the warm front will promote low stratus and patchy fog for
KEAT and KMWH through at least 18Z Saturday. Confidence is low
that MVFR cigs may develop at KLWS but light downsloping winds
may keep VFR conditions there. Shower threat develops again
through the afternoon Saturday. This will be accompanied by
increased winds with gusts increasing to 25 to 30 kts after 03Z
Sunday.


12Z TAFS: The warm front lifted north with light rain in most
areas. Now that we are in the warm sector, expected a bit more fog
but the high clouds and breezy conditions are preventing any
widespread fog from developing. The exception is KEAT where a IFR
ceilings persist. This morning we expect conditions to improve
briefly before winds in most TAF locations turn southeast and
eventually southwest. The approaching cold front will bring
widespread rain showers with the very slight chance of
thunderstorms to the eastern sites...not enough of a threat to
include in the TAF. Ceilings and visibilities will remain marginal
to VFR in rain as winds continue to turn southwesterly and very
gusty by late evening. Updates to TAFs at 12z were limited to
adjusting for improved morning ceilings and adding stronger winds
in the last 6 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        64  44  52  36  50  38 /  20  70  30  10  10  20
Coeur d`Alene  65  43  52  36  48  34 /  20  70  40  30  20  20
Pullman        69  43  52  37  51  36 /  20  60  30  20  10  10
Lewiston       71  48  58  41  56  40 /   0  60  20  20  10  10
Colville       62  44  53  32  51  35 /  30  80  50  20  10  20
Sandpoint      62  43  49  34  46  33 /  10  80  70  30  20  20
Kellogg        62  42  45  36  43  31 /  10  90  50  50  30  20
Moses Lake     64  46  59  35  55  40 /  20  50  10  10   0  30
Wenatchee      62  43  58  40  56  43 /  30  50  20  10   0  50
Omak           59  41  54  34  52  39 /  60  60  30  10   0  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 3 PM PDT Sunday for
     Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Spokane Area-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 251140
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
440 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SYNOPSIS...

A series of systems will pass through the region during the period.
The first system today is expected to bring the threat of isolated
thunderstorms and high winds to the region. Remnants of Hurricane Ana
on Tuesday will deliver widespread rainfall to the Inland
Northwest. Another rain producing system is possible by next
weekend.

&&

DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight...
Taking a look at the big picture across the country, the one
feature that really stands out is the deep upper level trof
approaching the west coast. This vigorous system will usher in
quite a bit of high impact weather over the next 36 hours.

OVERVIEW:
At 12z, a 986 mb low is moving rapidly northeast toward the
Washington and Oregon coast...and will make landfall this
afternoon at about 993 mb between Astoria and Aberdeen. The warm
front that lifted north into British Columbia overnight will be
replaced by a cold front ahead of the center of low pressure.
Before the front pushes inland, much of the Inland Northwest will
see at least a partial clearing. The clearing skies coupled with
the warm temperatures should further destabilize the
atmosphere...resulting in the possibility of isolated
thunderstorms.

THUNDERSTORMS?
But first, a line of showers will develop along the cold
front...ushering clouds quickly back across the Inland Northwest
early this afternoon. The cold air aloft will further destabilize
the atmosphere leading to numerous showers by the evening hours
with the aforementioned isolated rumble of thunder. While we
painted much of eastern Washington and the entire Idaho panhandle
with isolated thunderstorms, the best chance will be late this
evening over extreme southeastern Washington and the central
panhandle. The models have not been too aggressive with the
chances of thunder but after bumping up afternoon high temperatures
due to the anticipated clearing in the warm sector, the NAM and
SREF especially are showing enough instability to warrant the
isolated chance. Either way, widespread showers will impact the
region late afternoon through the evening hours with localized
heavy downpours possible.

WIND:
The biggest impact from this storm system will be the wind. As
the main line of showers pass through the region late in the
evening, the pressure gradient will tighten considerably. Common
with this storm path, a lee-side low will develop east of the
Canadian Rockies over Alberta. The low that moves inland this
afternoon will eventually merge with the lee-side low. High
pressure building southwest of the region coupled with the 994 mb
low to our northeast will squeeze the pressure gradient and result
in strong winds. A wind advisory that was issued earlier will be
updated momentarily to include Spokane metro with gusts to 50 mph
not out of the question. The peak of the event will be
overnight...midnight through sunrise. In a way we are fortunate
that the timing is not during max heating. The overnight hours
will work against the strongest winds mixing down to the surface.
Despite the fortunate timing, we are still anticipating
several impacts from this storm.

IMPACTS:
The main impacts from this storm will be the possibility of light
weight objects being picked up and thrown by the gusty winds. This
includes branches that will likely fall on power lines and result
in local power outages. Caution is also advised on the roadways
with dangerous crosswinds affecting high profile vehicles. Lastly
and not nearly as important...but this storm will bring an end to
much of the very scenic fall foliage.
/AB

Sunday through Monday: Winds will be on the decrease during Sunday
as the deep low pressure system moves east of our area. These
situations are often tricky. The pressure gradient is decreasing
which should allow winds to decrease, but the daytime heating
allows more momentum mixing from aloft. Winds will be breezy to
windy through much of the day. Showers will mainly be confined to
the Panhandle and northeast Mountains, but there`s actually enough
afternoon instability to allow showers to develop over the eastern
Basin. These showers should die off Sunday evening.

As the upper trough swings through the area, the flow on the
backside of the trough turns to northwesterly, allowing cooler air
to filter into the Inland Northwest. This will result in the
coolest day of the Autumn so far. A few locations may not reach
50F on Monday. The Panhandle and extreme eastern WA will probably
start the day with a stratus layer that will slowly burn off by
midday. RJ

Monday Night through Wednesday: A southwest flow pattern will
carry the remnants of Hurricane Ana through the Pacific Northwest
during this period. The Eastern side of the Cascades will begin to
receive precip beginning Monday night. The moisture will continue
to progress West to East through the Inland Northwest on Tuesday
morning. With snow levels expected to be around four to five
thousand feet, the higher elevations could receive a light dusting
of snow with rain for the valleys. This system is expected to
bring more than half an inch of precip to the Cascades. The
Waterville Plateau could see a couple tenths of an inch. The
extreme Eastern Washington and Idaho Panhandle could get around a
quarter of an inch of rain. Winds with this system will remain
fairly light as gusts could reach around 18 MPH. High temperatures
will range from the mid 40s to 50s for most habitated locations.

Thursday through Saturday: The models disagree with this period.
The ECMWF is keeping a strong ridge over the region than the GFS
for this period. The GFS will begin to bring another round of
precip into the region on Thursday afternoon while the ECMWF keeps
it West of the Cascades until late Saturday. The POPs were
dropped to a slight chance for most of the Columbia Basin.
Temperatures for this period will still be several degrees above
normal with highs near 60 and lows near 40. /JDC

AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A warm front lifting into eastern WA and north ID will
bring areas of mainly light rain. The band of light rain has
lifted north of all TAF sites. Low level moisture and light winds
behind the warm front will promote low stratus and patchy fog for
KEAT and KMWH through at least 18Z Saturday. Confidence is low
that MVFR cigs may develop at KLWS but light downsloping winds
may keep VFR conditions there. Shower threat develops again
through the afternoon Saturday. This will be accompanied by
increased winds with gusts increasing to 25 to 30 kts after 03Z
Sunday.


12Z TAFS: The warm front lifted north with light rain in most
areas. Now that we are in the warm sector, expected a bit more fog
but the high clouds and breezy conditions are preventing any
widespread fog from developing. The exception is KEAT where a IFR
ceilings persist. This morning we expect conditions to improve
briefly before winds in most TAF locations turn southeast and
eventually southwest. The approaching cold front will bring
widespread rain showers with the very slight chance of
thunderstorms to the eastern sites...not enough of a threat to
include in the TAF. Ceilings and visibilities will remain marginal
to VFR in rain as winds continue to turn southwesterly and very
gusty by late evening. Updates to TAFs at 12z were limited to
adjusting for improved morning ceilings and adding stronger winds
in the last 6 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        64  44  52  36  50  38 /  20  70  30  10  10  20
Coeur d`Alene  65  43  52  36  48  34 /  20  70  40  30  20  20
Pullman        69  43  52  37  51  36 /  20  60  30  20  10  10
Lewiston       71  48  58  41  56  40 /   0  60  20  20  10  10
Colville       62  44  53  32  51  35 /  30  80  50  20  10  20
Sandpoint      62  43  49  34  46  33 /  10  80  70  30  20  20
Kellogg        62  42  45  36  43  31 /  10  90  50  50  30  20
Moses Lake     64  46  59  35  55  40 /  20  50  10  10   0  30
Wenatchee      62  43  58  40  56  43 /  30  50  20  10   0  50
Omak           59  41  54  34  52  39 /  60  60  30  10   0  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 3 PM PDT Sunday for
     Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Spokane Area-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 251046
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OFFSHORE WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG
EAST WIND ALONG THE CASCADE FOOTHILL EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT WILL ALSO
BE WET WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE
SHOWERY. MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ADVANCING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. WET AND BREEZY WEATHER IS LIKELY AT TIMES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WARM FRONT LIFTED NWD OVERNIGHT AND RADAR SHOWS MOST
THE RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED OVER EXTREME NRN AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE CROSS CASCADE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO CLIMB WITH SEA-EAT NEAR NEAR
-7.5 MB AT 3 AM. THE WRFGFS-4KM SHOWS GUSTY EAST WINDS ALONG THE
FOOTHILL CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE EASING. MESO WEST
OBS ARE SHOWING GUSTS TO NEAR 35-40 MPH AT SITES AROUND ENUMCLAW.
WITH THE CLIMBING GRADIENT THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD REACH 45 MPH AT
TIMES SO THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM PDT. THE
BELLEVUE ZONE WAS REMOVED AS STRONGER WINDS SHOW NO SIGNS OF
EXTENDING THAT FAR.

THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OFF
THE NRN CA COAST. MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON THE
COMPLEX STRUCTURE OF THIS LOW AS IT ORGANIZES AND MOVES NE TOWARD
OUR AREA. ITS CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ALREADY DOWN TO NEAR 985 MB AND A
BIT MORE DEEPENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN THE
NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES WHICH OFTEN INDICATE A DEEPENING SYSTEM.
THESE STRIKES ARE ALSO OCCURRING TO THE N/NE OF THE LOW WHICH SHOULD
GENERALLY TELL THE DIRECTION THE LOW WILL TRACK...IN THIS CASE TO
THE NE.

LATEST 00Z/06Z MODELS ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT SO THERE IS
SLIGHTLY MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THE LOW WILL CONSOLIDATE RAPIDLY TODAY
AND TRACK INLAND NEAR HOQUIAM. EVEN THE 00Z NAM12 WHICH WAS STILL
BRINGING THE LOW TOO FAR S FOR WIND HAS SHIFTED N WITH THE LOW TRACK
ON THE 06Z RUN...BRINGING IT NE THROUGH PUGET SOUND THIS EVENING.
VIRTUALLY ALL THE OTHER MODELS SHOW THIS CONSOLIDATION AND GENERAL
TRACK WITH ONLY SLIGHT VARIATIONS. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST ALARMING
WITH ITS MORE N-NELY TRACK JUST W OF PUGET SOUND RESULTING IN LOTS
OF SLY GRADIENT...+14 MB PDX-BLI...ALL THROUGH WAY UP TO THE N
INTERIOR. THIS SOLUTION WOULD PROBABLY GIVE HIGH END ADVISORY FOR
MUCH OR ALL OF THE INTERIOR. MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS SHOW A MUCH
SHORTER PERIOD OF SWLY WINDS WITH THE INITIAL SHARP PRESSURE RISES
BEHIND THE LOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM12 AND
WRFGFS-4KM BOTH INDICATE 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES OF +8 TO +9 MB FROM
THE COAST TO THE SW INTERIOR/PUGET SOUND REGION BEHIND THE LOW.
THOSE MODELS THEN SURGE THE WESTERLIES DOWN THE STRAIT AND PRODUCE
STRONG WINDS INTO WHIDBEY ISLAND AND MAYBE THE HEADLANDS OF THE ERN
STRAIT. THIS SCENARIO WOULD CUT OFF STRONGER WINDS TO THE S...SO
PUGET SOUND SWD WOULD HAVE WINDS EASING BY MIDNIGHT. NOT ALL MODELS
AGREE ON THESE DETAILS BUT THIS IS THE BEST GUESS SCENARIO AT THIS
TIME. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COAST...SW INTERIOR...PUGET
SOUND/HOOD CANAL...AND THE ERN STRAIT/WHIDBEY ISLAND ZONES. MOST
MODELS CUT OFF STRONGER WINDS BEFORE REACHING EVERETT SO THAT ZONE
WILL BE LEFT OUT OF THE ADVISORY. WILL ALSO ISSUE AN SPS TO COVER
THE REST OF THE AREA INDICATING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY WEATHER
POSSIBLE...BUT SUB ADVISORY. AT SOMETHING WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE
EVENT THE ECMWF IS CORRECT IN PRODUCING STRONG SLY GRADIENT ALL THE
WAY UP THE INTERIOR.


STRONG POST-LOW ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN
CHANGING TO SHOWERS. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID 50S...THOUGH IT WILL FEEL COLDER GIVEN THE BREEZE.

.LONG TERM...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE PAC NW ON TUESDAY
WITH THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT BRINGING RAIN BACK INTO WRN WA. POPS
WERE BOOSTED AS MODELS MOSTLY AGREE ON THIS AND RAIN SHADOWING WILL
NOT BE AN ISSUE. A 985-990 MB SURFACE LOW WILL START TO FILL AS IT
TRACKS E-NE ACROSS NRN VANCOUVER ISLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE STRONG SE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SO WIND ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS ARE PROBABLE FROM AROUND WHIDBEY ISLAND NWD AND ALONG
THE COAST. GRADIENTS NEVER TURN SWLY THROUGH PUGET SOUND SO MUCH
LESS WIND EXPECTED HERE. THIS WILL BE A WET SYSTEM WITH 24 HOUR RAIN
AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES LIKELY IN THE OLYMPICS AND
CASCADES...ESPECIALLY N.

THERE WILL BE A LULL IN SHOWERS BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT ON BRINGING ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. BUT MODELS ARE IMPLYING THIS SYSTEM WILL SPLIT...SO IT MAY
NOT BE WELL ORGANIZED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN AT TIMES THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WILL RISE AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO
HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. SINCE IT IS STILL RUNNING HIGH FROM
THE PREVIOUS RAINFALL...IT IS POSSIBLE THE RIVER WILL GET CLOSE TO
FLOOD STAGE LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT. FOR NOW THE FORECAST TAKES THE
STAGE AT POTLATCH TO BETWEEN 15.5 AND 16 FEET. FLOOD STAGE IS 16.5
FEET.

A BREAK IN RAIN WILL HELP WATER RECEDE ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER
MONDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING UP TO 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN
TO THE SKOKOMISH BASIN. WILL NEED TO KEEP A WATCH ON THIS BUT
CURRENT PROJECTIONS KEEP THE SKOKOMISH RIVER BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

OTHERWISE...FLOODING ON OTHER RIVERS IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WILL MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL MOISTEN WITH VFR CIGS THIS
MORNING LOWERING TO PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS WITH SPOTTY IFR CIGS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS ASTORIA AROUND 21Z AND ACROSS W WA
00Z-06Z. STRONG W-SW FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS IN SPOTS...SW20-35G45KT. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE SW PART.

KSEA...THE TERMINAL IS IN A LULL AT 11Z BETWEEN A WARM FRONT AND THE
COLD FRONT JUST OFFSHORE. RAIN WILL RETURN 15Z-19Z AS THE COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE AFTER THAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
AND SURFACE LOW FOLLOW. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEARS THE AREA WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH BKN030-050 THROUGH
AROUND 22Z THEN REACH THE MVFR RANGE AFTER THAT. WINDS ALOFT
FL050-FL100 WILL BE S 30-55KT FROM 15Z-00Z. N SURFACE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY 5-10KT AFTER 15Z AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
SURFACE WINDS SW15-30G35KT WILL DEVELOP AFTER 00Z. KAM

&&

.MARINE...A 995 MB SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. A 990 MB
LOW WILL MOVE NE ACROSS ASTORIA THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER PUGET SOUND
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS A BIT OF A COMPLEX PATTERN AND MODELS
ARE NOT QUITE IN LOCK STEP WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...TRACK...AND WIND
STRENGTH IN VARIOUS LOCATIONS. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE. THE
FIRST LOW SHOULD RAISE SOUTHERLY GALES ALONG THE COAST WITH SCA
WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE INLAND WATERS. THE SECOND STRONGER LOW
SHOULD GENERATE W-NW GALES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND SHOULD RAISE
FULL GALES IN THE STRAIT THIS EVENING. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE LOW
SHOULD RAISE WINDS IN PUGET SOUND BUT GALES ARE A LITTLE MORE
TENUOUS HERE. MODELS HAVE THE WEAKEST SCA LEVEL WINDS OVER ADMIRALTY
INLET AND THE N INLAND WATERS...BUT GALES ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION EITHER.

AFTER THE SECOND LOW EXITS TO THE NE TONIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD INLAND OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
ANOTHER VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY...THEN MOVE INLAND MONDAY EVENING. GALES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
COAST AND N INTERIOR. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS THROUGH 9 AM
     PDT THIS MORNING.
     WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COAST...SOUTHWEST
     INTERIOR...EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS...AND PUGET SOUND/HOOD
     CANAL FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
PZ...GALE WARNING COAST...STRAIT AND PUGET SOUND.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ADMIRALTY INLET AND NORTHERN INLAND
     WATERS.
&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KSEW 251046
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OFFSHORE WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG
EAST WIND ALONG THE CASCADE FOOTHILL EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT WILL ALSO
BE WET WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE
SHOWERY. MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ADVANCING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. WET AND BREEZY WEATHER IS LIKELY AT TIMES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WARM FRONT LIFTED NWD OVERNIGHT AND RADAR SHOWS MOST
THE RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED OVER EXTREME NRN AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE CROSS CASCADE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO CLIMB WITH SEA-EAT NEAR NEAR
-7.5 MB AT 3 AM. THE WRFGFS-4KM SHOWS GUSTY EAST WINDS ALONG THE
FOOTHILL CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE EASING. MESO WEST
OBS ARE SHOWING GUSTS TO NEAR 35-40 MPH AT SITES AROUND ENUMCLAW.
WITH THE CLIMBING GRADIENT THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD REACH 45 MPH AT
TIMES SO THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM PDT. THE
BELLEVUE ZONE WAS REMOVED AS STRONGER WINDS SHOW NO SIGNS OF
EXTENDING THAT FAR.

THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OFF
THE NRN CA COAST. MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON THE
COMPLEX STRUCTURE OF THIS LOW AS IT ORGANIZES AND MOVES NE TOWARD
OUR AREA. ITS CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ALREADY DOWN TO NEAR 985 MB AND A
BIT MORE DEEPENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN THE
NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES WHICH OFTEN INDICATE A DEEPENING SYSTEM.
THESE STRIKES ARE ALSO OCCURRING TO THE N/NE OF THE LOW WHICH SHOULD
GENERALLY TELL THE DIRECTION THE LOW WILL TRACK...IN THIS CASE TO
THE NE.

LATEST 00Z/06Z MODELS ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT SO THERE IS
SLIGHTLY MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THE LOW WILL CONSOLIDATE RAPIDLY TODAY
AND TRACK INLAND NEAR HOQUIAM. EVEN THE 00Z NAM12 WHICH WAS STILL
BRINGING THE LOW TOO FAR S FOR WIND HAS SHIFTED N WITH THE LOW TRACK
ON THE 06Z RUN...BRINGING IT NE THROUGH PUGET SOUND THIS EVENING.
VIRTUALLY ALL THE OTHER MODELS SHOW THIS CONSOLIDATION AND GENERAL
TRACK WITH ONLY SLIGHT VARIATIONS. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST ALARMING
WITH ITS MORE N-NELY TRACK JUST W OF PUGET SOUND RESULTING IN LOTS
OF SLY GRADIENT...+14 MB PDX-BLI...ALL THROUGH WAY UP TO THE N
INTERIOR. THIS SOLUTION WOULD PROBABLY GIVE HIGH END ADVISORY FOR
MUCH OR ALL OF THE INTERIOR. MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS SHOW A MUCH
SHORTER PERIOD OF SWLY WINDS WITH THE INITIAL SHARP PRESSURE RISES
BEHIND THE LOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM12 AND
WRFGFS-4KM BOTH INDICATE 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES OF +8 TO +9 MB FROM
THE COAST TO THE SW INTERIOR/PUGET SOUND REGION BEHIND THE LOW.
THOSE MODELS THEN SURGE THE WESTERLIES DOWN THE STRAIT AND PRODUCE
STRONG WINDS INTO WHIDBEY ISLAND AND MAYBE THE HEADLANDS OF THE ERN
STRAIT. THIS SCENARIO WOULD CUT OFF STRONGER WINDS TO THE S...SO
PUGET SOUND SWD WOULD HAVE WINDS EASING BY MIDNIGHT. NOT ALL MODELS
AGREE ON THESE DETAILS BUT THIS IS THE BEST GUESS SCENARIO AT THIS
TIME. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COAST...SW INTERIOR...PUGET
SOUND/HOOD CANAL...AND THE ERN STRAIT/WHIDBEY ISLAND ZONES. MOST
MODELS CUT OFF STRONGER WINDS BEFORE REACHING EVERETT SO THAT ZONE
WILL BE LEFT OUT OF THE ADVISORY. WILL ALSO ISSUE AN SPS TO COVER
THE REST OF THE AREA INDICATING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY WEATHER
POSSIBLE...BUT SUB ADVISORY. AT SOMETHING WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE
EVENT THE ECMWF IS CORRECT IN PRODUCING STRONG SLY GRADIENT ALL THE
WAY UP THE INTERIOR.


STRONG POST-LOW ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN
CHANGING TO SHOWERS. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID 50S...THOUGH IT WILL FEEL COLDER GIVEN THE BREEZE.

.LONG TERM...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE PAC NW ON TUESDAY
WITH THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT BRINGING RAIN BACK INTO WRN WA. POPS
WERE BOOSTED AS MODELS MOSTLY AGREE ON THIS AND RAIN SHADOWING WILL
NOT BE AN ISSUE. A 985-990 MB SURFACE LOW WILL START TO FILL AS IT
TRACKS E-NE ACROSS NRN VANCOUVER ISLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE STRONG SE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SO WIND ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS ARE PROBABLE FROM AROUND WHIDBEY ISLAND NWD AND ALONG
THE COAST. GRADIENTS NEVER TURN SWLY THROUGH PUGET SOUND SO MUCH
LESS WIND EXPECTED HERE. THIS WILL BE A WET SYSTEM WITH 24 HOUR RAIN
AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES LIKELY IN THE OLYMPICS AND
CASCADES...ESPECIALLY N.

THERE WILL BE A LULL IN SHOWERS BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT ON BRINGING ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. BUT MODELS ARE IMPLYING THIS SYSTEM WILL SPLIT...SO IT MAY
NOT BE WELL ORGANIZED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN AT TIMES THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WILL RISE AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO
HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. SINCE IT IS STILL RUNNING HIGH FROM
THE PREVIOUS RAINFALL...IT IS POSSIBLE THE RIVER WILL GET CLOSE TO
FLOOD STAGE LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT. FOR NOW THE FORECAST TAKES THE
STAGE AT POTLATCH TO BETWEEN 15.5 AND 16 FEET. FLOOD STAGE IS 16.5
FEET.

A BREAK IN RAIN WILL HELP WATER RECEDE ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER
MONDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING UP TO 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN
TO THE SKOKOMISH BASIN. WILL NEED TO KEEP A WATCH ON THIS BUT
CURRENT PROJECTIONS KEEP THE SKOKOMISH RIVER BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

OTHERWISE...FLOODING ON OTHER RIVERS IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WILL MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL MOISTEN WITH VFR CIGS THIS
MORNING LOWERING TO PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS WITH SPOTTY IFR CIGS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS ASTORIA AROUND 21Z AND ACROSS W WA
00Z-06Z. STRONG W-SW FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS IN SPOTS...SW20-35G45KT. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE SW PART.

KSEA...THE TERMINAL IS IN A LULL AT 11Z BETWEEN A WARM FRONT AND THE
COLD FRONT JUST OFFSHORE. RAIN WILL RETURN 15Z-19Z AS THE COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE AFTER THAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
AND SURFACE LOW FOLLOW. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEARS THE AREA WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH BKN030-050 THROUGH
AROUND 22Z THEN REACH THE MVFR RANGE AFTER THAT. WINDS ALOFT
FL050-FL100 WILL BE S 30-55KT FROM 15Z-00Z. N SURFACE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY 5-10KT AFTER 15Z AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
SURFACE WINDS SW15-30G35KT WILL DEVELOP AFTER 00Z. KAM

&&

.MARINE...A 995 MB SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. A 990 MB
LOW WILL MOVE NE ACROSS ASTORIA THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER PUGET SOUND
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS A BIT OF A COMPLEX PATTERN AND MODELS
ARE NOT QUITE IN LOCK STEP WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...TRACK...AND WIND
STRENGTH IN VARIOUS LOCATIONS. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE. THE
FIRST LOW SHOULD RAISE SOUTHERLY GALES ALONG THE COAST WITH SCA
WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE INLAND WATERS. THE SECOND STRONGER LOW
SHOULD GENERATE W-NW GALES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND SHOULD RAISE
FULL GALES IN THE STRAIT THIS EVENING. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE LOW
SHOULD RAISE WINDS IN PUGET SOUND BUT GALES ARE A LITTLE MORE
TENUOUS HERE. MODELS HAVE THE WEAKEST SCA LEVEL WINDS OVER ADMIRALTY
INLET AND THE N INLAND WATERS...BUT GALES ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION EITHER.

AFTER THE SECOND LOW EXITS TO THE NE TONIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD INLAND OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
ANOTHER VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY...THEN MOVE INLAND MONDAY EVENING. GALES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
COAST AND N INTERIOR. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS THROUGH 9 AM
     PDT THIS MORNING.
     WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COAST...SOUTHWEST
     INTERIOR...EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS...AND PUGET SOUND/HOOD
     CANAL FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
PZ...GALE WARNING COAST...STRAIT AND PUGET SOUND.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ADMIRALTY INLET AND NORTHERN INLAND
     WATERS.
&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KPQR 251041 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
340 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL MOVE N UP THE OREGON COAST TODAY
THEN MOVE INLAND OVER SW WA TOWARDS PUGET SOUND THIS EVENING
BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE LOW TURNING THE FLOW ONSHORE TONIGHT
AND SUN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE IN MON AND TUE AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE LOW WAS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 40N
129W AT 08Z MOVING NE. BUOY 46002 SHOWED A PRES OF 990 MB N OF THE
LOW...SUGGESTING A CENTRAL PRES AT LEAST A FEW MB BELOW 990. OVERALL
PREFER THE ECMWF FOR PLACEMENT AND PRES...ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE COME
AROUND TO A MUCH MORE COHESIVE PICTURE OF LOW. A SOUTHERLY JET ALONG
THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUGGESTS A TURN TO THE N FOR THE LOW
TODAY...WHICH MODELS NOW UNIFORMLY BRING UP JUST OFF THE OREGON
COAST TODAY WHILE BEGINNING TO FILL. THERE IS A LITTLE SPREAD IN
WHERE THE MODELS BRING THE LOW INLAND...BUT CONSENSUS SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THE LOWMAKING LANDFALL ON THE S WA COAST BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z
TODAY BEFORE HEADING TOWARDS THE S PUGET SOUND AREA. WITH SURFACE
PRES GRADIENTS GENERALLY DEPICTED AROUND 14 TO 16 MB DOWN THE OREOGN
COAST AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND...WILL POST HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THE
CENTRAL AND N OREGON COAST AND THE N OREGON COAST RANGE. S WA COAST
IS A LITTLE IFFY BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
LOW. WITH THE BEST GUESS FOR THE LOW MOVING INLAND OVER PACIFIC
COUNTY WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WARNINGS FOR THE S WA COAST AND WILLAPA
HILLS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY ULTIMATELY REQUIRE A WARNING LATER TODAY. A
THE TRACK OF THE LOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE S SOUND SUGGESTS WINDY
CONDITIONS EXTENDING INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND I-5 CORRIDOR
LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. MODELS INDICATING ABOUT A 6 MB PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN KEUG AND KPDX AS THE LOW PASSES BY TO THE
N..PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING BUT GUSTS TO 50 MPH
NONETHELESS. OVERALL THE PEAK WINDS TODAY AND THIS EVENING EXPECTED
TO BE RELATIVELY QUICK TO PASS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY AND
COLD FRONT FOLLOWS QUICKLY.

LIGHTING INDICATED ON LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORKS TO THE N OF THE
LOW EARLY THIS MORNING OFFSHORE. WILL ADD A MENTION OF THUNDER TO
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS THE LOW LIFTS N...AND INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN SW WA LATE TODAY. WITH THE WARM FRONT ALREADY N AND THE
LOW PASSING BY TO THE N...RAINFALL IS NOT A COMPLETE GIMMIE
TODAY...ESP POINTS FURTHER INLAND. BETTER POPS WILL COME TONIGHT IN
THE WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT AS THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE AND
OROGRAPHICS ADD LIFT TO THE WINDWARD MOUNTAINS. THE COOLER AIR
FOLLOWING THE FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 4500
FT BY SUN MORNING...IN TIME TO EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
FOR THE PASSES IN THE OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS.

A WEAK RIDGE SUN NIGHT WILL BRING A SLOW END TO THE SHOWERS AS WELL
AS SOME COOLER TEMPS. THE NEXT SYSTEM THOUGH...THIS ONE TRACKING E
ACROSS THE N PACIFIC TOWARDS BC...WILL BRING THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN
TO THE N PART OF THE FORECAST AREA MON IN AN AREA OF MOIST WARM AIR
ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THE LONG TERM
STARTS OUT WET WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MON NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM CONTAINS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANA...THAT
SKIRTED HAWAII LAST WEEK. MODELS MAY BE UNDER DOING THE  POTENTIAL
WITH THIS ONE. A STRONG JET STREAM WILL REMAIN DIRECTED AT WA AND
NRN OREGON THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MODELS SHOW LARGE VARIATIONS BEGINNING
WED...BUT EXPECT THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. THE ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW A TREND TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP LOW IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA AMPLIFIES THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...THE AREA IS CURRENTLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT. VFR PREVAILS CURRENTLY WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW. HOWEVER INLAND AREAS HAVE INCREASING IFR FOG
CONDITIONS AS CLOUDS HAVE THINNED SO AREAS OF FOG WILL PROBABLY
PERSIST THROUGH 16Z. A STRONG LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL
TRACK TO THE SOUTH WA COAST. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO IMPACT
COAST AFTER 18Z...THEN AFTER 22Z INLAND.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...PARTIAL CLEARING OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ALLOWING FOG TO DEVELOP. EXPECT IFR IN FOG AT TIMES THROUGH ABOUT
16Z FOR WESTERN APPROACHES. GUSTY EAST WINDS NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE THIS MORNING THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-35 KT ARE
EXPECTED 22Z SAT THROUGH 03Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...DEEPENING LOW PRES CENTER OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS
TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEAST AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...MAKING LANDFALL
ON THE SOUTH OR CENTRAL WASHINGTON COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY SWITCH TO
SOUTHERLY GALES AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT NEARS. THERE COULD
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF COASTAL JET DEVELOPMENT AS THE FRONT NEARS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...IN THE 2 TO 5 PM PERIOD. LATE AFTERNOON
THE WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THEN EASE
OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAIN GUSTY ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN ZONES
WHERE GALE GUSTS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE PAC NW SUN AND MON. ANOTHER FRONT EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS.

SEAS GENERALLY STARTING OUT AROUND 10 FT WILL PROBABLY BUILD TO
AROUND 15-17 FT GIVEN THE SHORT FETCH TIME. SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
BELOW 10 FT SUNDAY. SEAS LIKELY TO CLIMB TO AROUND 14 FT WITH THE
FRONT LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. /26
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-
     LOWER COLUMBIA.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 AM PDT
     SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 251041 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
340 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL MOVE N UP THE OREGON COAST TODAY
THEN MOVE INLAND OVER SW WA TOWARDS PUGET SOUND THIS EVENING
BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE LOW TURNING THE FLOW ONSHORE TONIGHT
AND SUN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE IN MON AND TUE AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE LOW WAS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 40N
129W AT 08Z MOVING NE. BUOY 46002 SHOWED A PRES OF 990 MB N OF THE
LOW...SUGGESTING A CENTRAL PRES AT LEAST A FEW MB BELOW 990. OVERALL
PREFER THE ECMWF FOR PLACEMENT AND PRES...ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE COME
AROUND TO A MUCH MORE COHESIVE PICTURE OF LOW. A SOUTHERLY JET ALONG
THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUGGESTS A TURN TO THE N FOR THE LOW
TODAY...WHICH MODELS NOW UNIFORMLY BRING UP JUST OFF THE OREGON
COAST TODAY WHILE BEGINNING TO FILL. THERE IS A LITTLE SPREAD IN
WHERE THE MODELS BRING THE LOW INLAND...BUT CONSENSUS SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THE LOWMAKING LANDFALL ON THE S WA COAST BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z
TODAY BEFORE HEADING TOWARDS THE S PUGET SOUND AREA. WITH SURFACE
PRES GRADIENTS GENERALLY DEPICTED AROUND 14 TO 16 MB DOWN THE OREOGN
COAST AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND...WILL POST HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THE
CENTRAL AND N OREGON COAST AND THE N OREGON COAST RANGE. S WA COAST
IS A LITTLE IFFY BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
LOW. WITH THE BEST GUESS FOR THE LOW MOVING INLAND OVER PACIFIC
COUNTY WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WARNINGS FOR THE S WA COAST AND WILLAPA
HILLS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY ULTIMATELY REQUIRE A WARNING LATER TODAY. A
THE TRACK OF THE LOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE S SOUND SUGGESTS WINDY
CONDITIONS EXTENDING INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND I-5 CORRIDOR
LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. MODELS INDICATING ABOUT A 6 MB PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN KEUG AND KPDX AS THE LOW PASSES BY TO THE
N..PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING BUT GUSTS TO 50 MPH
NONETHELESS. OVERALL THE PEAK WINDS TODAY AND THIS EVENING EXPECTED
TO BE RELATIVELY QUICK TO PASS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY AND
COLD FRONT FOLLOWS QUICKLY.

LIGHTING INDICATED ON LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORKS TO THE N OF THE
LOW EARLY THIS MORNING OFFSHORE. WILL ADD A MENTION OF THUNDER TO
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS THE LOW LIFTS N...AND INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN SW WA LATE TODAY. WITH THE WARM FRONT ALREADY N AND THE
LOW PASSING BY TO THE N...RAINFALL IS NOT A COMPLETE GIMMIE
TODAY...ESP POINTS FURTHER INLAND. BETTER POPS WILL COME TONIGHT IN
THE WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT AS THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE AND
OROGRAPHICS ADD LIFT TO THE WINDWARD MOUNTAINS. THE COOLER AIR
FOLLOWING THE FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 4500
FT BY SUN MORNING...IN TIME TO EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
FOR THE PASSES IN THE OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS.

A WEAK RIDGE SUN NIGHT WILL BRING A SLOW END TO THE SHOWERS AS WELL
AS SOME COOLER TEMPS. THE NEXT SYSTEM THOUGH...THIS ONE TRACKING E
ACROSS THE N PACIFIC TOWARDS BC...WILL BRING THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN
TO THE N PART OF THE FORECAST AREA MON IN AN AREA OF MOIST WARM AIR
ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THE LONG TERM
STARTS OUT WET WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MON NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM CONTAINS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANA...THAT
SKIRTED HAWAII LAST WEEK. MODELS MAY BE UNDER DOING THE  POTENTIAL
WITH THIS ONE. A STRONG JET STREAM WILL REMAIN DIRECTED AT WA AND
NRN OREGON THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MODELS SHOW LARGE VARIATIONS BEGINNING
WED...BUT EXPECT THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. THE ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW A TREND TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP LOW IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA AMPLIFIES THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...THE AREA IS CURRENTLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT. VFR PREVAILS CURRENTLY WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW. HOWEVER INLAND AREAS HAVE INCREASING IFR FOG
CONDITIONS AS CLOUDS HAVE THINNED SO AREAS OF FOG WILL PROBABLY
PERSIST THROUGH 16Z. A STRONG LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL
TRACK TO THE SOUTH WA COAST. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO IMPACT
COAST AFTER 18Z...THEN AFTER 22Z INLAND.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...PARTIAL CLEARING OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ALLOWING FOG TO DEVELOP. EXPECT IFR IN FOG AT TIMES THROUGH ABOUT
16Z FOR WESTERN APPROACHES. GUSTY EAST WINDS NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE THIS MORNING THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-35 KT ARE
EXPECTED 22Z SAT THROUGH 03Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...DEEPENING LOW PRES CENTER OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS
TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEAST AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...MAKING LANDFALL
ON THE SOUTH OR CENTRAL WASHINGTON COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY SWITCH TO
SOUTHERLY GALES AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT NEARS. THERE COULD
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF COASTAL JET DEVELOPMENT AS THE FRONT NEARS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...IN THE 2 TO 5 PM PERIOD. LATE AFTERNOON
THE WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THEN EASE
OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAIN GUSTY ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN ZONES
WHERE GALE GUSTS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE PAC NW SUN AND MON. ANOTHER FRONT EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS.

SEAS GENERALLY STARTING OUT AROUND 10 FT WILL PROBABLY BUILD TO
AROUND 15-17 FT GIVEN THE SHORT FETCH TIME. SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
BELOW 10 FT SUNDAY. SEAS LIKELY TO CLIMB TO AROUND 14 FT WITH THE
FRONT LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. /26
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-
     LOWER COLUMBIA.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 AM PDT
     SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 251032
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
331 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A series of systems will pass through the region during the period.
The first system today is expected to bring the threat of isolated
thunderstorms and high winds to the region. Remnants of Hurricane Ana
on Tuesday will deliver widespread rainfall to the Inland
Northwest. Another rain producing system is possible by next
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight...
Taking a look at the big picture across the country, the one
feature that really stands out is the deep upper level trof
approaching the west coast. This vigorous system will usher in
quite a bit of high impact weather over the next 36 hours.

OVERVIEW:
At 12z, a 986 mb low is moving rapidly northeast toward the
Washington and Oregon coast...and will make landfall this
afternoon at about 993 mb between Astoria and Aberdeen. The warm
front that lifted north into British Columbia overnight will be
replaced by a cold front ahead of the center of low pressure.
Before the front pushes inland, much of the Inland Northwest will
see at least a partial clearing. The clearing skies coupled with
the warm temperatures should further destabilize the
atmosphere...resulting in the possibility of isolated
thunderstorms.

THUNDERSTORMS?
But first, a line of showers will develop along the cold
front...ushering clouds quickly back across the Inland Northwest
early this afternoon. The cold air aloft will further destabilize
the atmosphere leading to numerous showers by the evening hours
with the aforementioned isolated rumble of thunder. While we
painted much of eastern Washington and the entire Idaho panhandle
with isolated thunderstorms, the best chance will be late this
evening over extreme southeastern Washington and the central
panhandle. The models have not been too aggressive with the
chances of thunder but after bumping up afternoon high temperatures
due to the anticipated clearing in the warm sector, the NAM and
SREF especially are showing enough instability to warrant the
isolated chance. Either way, widespread showers will impact the
region late afternoon through the evening hours with localized
heavy downpours possible.

WIND:
The biggest impact from this storm system will be the wind. As
the main line of showers pass through the region late in the
evening, the pressure gradient will tighten considerably. Common
with this storm path, a lee-side low will develop east of the
Canadian Rockies over Alberta. The low that moves inland this
afternoon will eventually merge with the lee-side low. High
pressure building southwest of the region coupled with the 994 mb
low to our northeast will squeeze the pressure gradient and result
in strong winds. A wind advisory that was issued earlier will be
updated momentarily to include Spokane metro with gusts to 50 mph
not out of the question. The peak of the event will be
overnight...midnight through sunrise. In a way we are fortunate
that the timing is not during max heating. The overnight hours
will work against the strongest winds mixing down to the surface.
Despite the fortunate timing, we are still anticipating
several impacts from this storm.

IMPACTS:
The main impacts from this storm will be the possibility of light
weight objects being picked up and thrown by the gusty winds. This
includes branches that will likely fall on power lines and result
in local power outages. Caution is also advised on the roadways
with dangerous crosswinds affecting high profile vehicles. Lastly
and not nearly as important...but this storm will bring an end to
much of the very scenic fall foliage.
/AB

Sunday through Monday: Winds will be on the decrease during Sunday
as the deep low pressure system moves east of our area. These
situations are often tricky. The pressure gradient is decreasing
which should allow winds to decrease, but the daytime heating
allows more momentum mixing from aloft. Winds will be breezy to
windy through much of the day. Showers will mainly be confined to
the Panhandle and northeast Mountains, but there`s actually enough
afternoon instability to allow showers to develop over the eastern
Basin. These showers should die off Sunday evening.

As the upper trough swings through the area, the flow on the
backside of the trough turns to northwesterly, allowing cooler air
to filter into the Inland Northwest. This will result in the
coolest day of the Autumn so far. A few locations may not reach
50F on Monday. The Panhandle and extreme eastern WA will probably
start the day with a stratus layer that will slowly burn off by
midday. RJ

Monday Night through Wednesday: A southwest flow pattern will
carry the remnants of Hurricane Ana through the Pacific Northwest
during this period. The Eastern side of the Cascades will begin to
receive precip beginning Monday night. The moisture will continue
to progress West to East through the Inland Northwest on Tuesday
morning. With snow levels expected to be around four to five
thousand feet, the higher elevations could receive a light dusting
of snow with rain for the valleys. This system is expected to
bring more than half an inch of precip to the Cascades. The
Waterville Plateau could see a couple tenths of an inch. The
extreme Eastern Washington and Idaho Panhandle could get around a
quarter of an inch of rain. Winds with this system will remain
fairly light as gusts could reach around 18 MPH. High temperatures
will range from the mid 40s to 50s for most habitated locations.

Thursday through Saturday: The models disagree with this period.
The ECMWF is keeping a strong ridge over the region than the GFS
for this period. The GFS will begin to bring another round of
precip into the region on Thursday afternoon while the ECMWF keeps
it West of the Cascades until late Saturday. The POPs were
dropped to a slight chance for most of the Columbia Basin.
Temperatures for this period will still be several degrees above
normal with highs near 60 and lows near 40. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A warm front lifting into eastern WA and north ID will
bring areas of mainly light rain. The band of light rain has
lifted north of all TAF sites. Low level moisture and light winds
behind the warm front will promote low stratus and patchy fog for
KEAT and KMWH through at least 18Z Saturday. Confidence is low
that MVFR cigs may develop at KLWS but light downsloping winds
may keep VFR conditions there. Shower threat develops again
through the afternoon Saturday. This will be accompanied by
increased winds with gusts increasing to 25 to 30 kts after 03Z
Sunday.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        64  44  52  36  50  38 /  20  70  30  10  10  20
Coeur d`Alene  65  43  52  36  48  34 /  20  70  40  30  20  20
Pullman        69  43  52  37  51  36 /  20  60  30  20  10  10
Lewiston       71  48  58  41  56  40 /   0  60  20  20  10  10
Colville       62  44  53  32  51  35 /  30  80  50  20  10  20
Sandpoint      62  43  49  34  46  33 /  10  80  70  30  20  20
Kellogg        62  42  45  36  43  31 /  10  90  50  50  30  20
Moses Lake     64  46  59  35  55  40 /  20  50  10  10   0  30
Wenatchee      62  43  58  40  56  43 /  30  50  20  10   0  50
Omak           59  41  54  34  52  39 /  60  60  30  10   0  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 3 PM PDT Sunday for
     Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Spokane Area-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 251032
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
331 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A series of systems will pass through the region during the period.
The first system today is expected to bring the threat of isolated
thunderstorms and high winds to the region. Remnants of Hurricane Ana
on Tuesday will deliver widespread rainfall to the Inland
Northwest. Another rain producing system is possible by next
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight...
Taking a look at the big picture across the country, the one
feature that really stands out is the deep upper level trof
approaching the west coast. This vigorous system will usher in
quite a bit of high impact weather over the next 36 hours.

OVERVIEW:
At 12z, a 986 mb low is moving rapidly northeast toward the
Washington and Oregon coast...and will make landfall this
afternoon at about 993 mb between Astoria and Aberdeen. The warm
front that lifted north into British Columbia overnight will be
replaced by a cold front ahead of the center of low pressure.
Before the front pushes inland, much of the Inland Northwest will
see at least a partial clearing. The clearing skies coupled with
the warm temperatures should further destabilize the
atmosphere...resulting in the possibility of isolated
thunderstorms.

THUNDERSTORMS?
But first, a line of showers will develop along the cold
front...ushering clouds quickly back across the Inland Northwest
early this afternoon. The cold air aloft will further destabilize
the atmosphere leading to numerous showers by the evening hours
with the aforementioned isolated rumble of thunder. While we
painted much of eastern Washington and the entire Idaho panhandle
with isolated thunderstorms, the best chance will be late this
evening over extreme southeastern Washington and the central
panhandle. The models have not been too aggressive with the
chances of thunder but after bumping up afternoon high temperatures
due to the anticipated clearing in the warm sector, the NAM and
SREF especially are showing enough instability to warrant the
isolated chance. Either way, widespread showers will impact the
region late afternoon through the evening hours with localized
heavy downpours possible.

WIND:
The biggest impact from this storm system will be the wind. As
the main line of showers pass through the region late in the
evening, the pressure gradient will tighten considerably. Common
with this storm path, a lee-side low will develop east of the
Canadian Rockies over Alberta. The low that moves inland this
afternoon will eventually merge with the lee-side low. High
pressure building southwest of the region coupled with the 994 mb
low to our northeast will squeeze the pressure gradient and result
in strong winds. A wind advisory that was issued earlier will be
updated momentarily to include Spokane metro with gusts to 50 mph
not out of the question. The peak of the event will be
overnight...midnight through sunrise. In a way we are fortunate
that the timing is not during max heating. The overnight hours
will work against the strongest winds mixing down to the surface.
Despite the fortunate timing, we are still anticipating
several impacts from this storm.

IMPACTS:
The main impacts from this storm will be the possibility of light
weight objects being picked up and thrown by the gusty winds. This
includes branches that will likely fall on power lines and result
in local power outages. Caution is also advised on the roadways
with dangerous crosswinds affecting high profile vehicles. Lastly
and not nearly as important...but this storm will bring an end to
much of the very scenic fall foliage.
/AB

Sunday through Monday: Winds will be on the decrease during Sunday
as the deep low pressure system moves east of our area. These
situations are often tricky. The pressure gradient is decreasing
which should allow winds to decrease, but the daytime heating
allows more momentum mixing from aloft. Winds will be breezy to
windy through much of the day. Showers will mainly be confined to
the Panhandle and northeast Mountains, but there`s actually enough
afternoon instability to allow showers to develop over the eastern
Basin. These showers should die off Sunday evening.

As the upper trough swings through the area, the flow on the
backside of the trough turns to northwesterly, allowing cooler air
to filter into the Inland Northwest. This will result in the
coolest day of the Autumn so far. A few locations may not reach
50F on Monday. The Panhandle and extreme eastern WA will probably
start the day with a stratus layer that will slowly burn off by
midday. RJ

Monday Night through Wednesday: A southwest flow pattern will
carry the remnants of Hurricane Ana through the Pacific Northwest
during this period. The Eastern side of the Cascades will begin to
receive precip beginning Monday night. The moisture will continue
to progress West to East through the Inland Northwest on Tuesday
morning. With snow levels expected to be around four to five
thousand feet, the higher elevations could receive a light dusting
of snow with rain for the valleys. This system is expected to
bring more than half an inch of precip to the Cascades. The
Waterville Plateau could see a couple tenths of an inch. The
extreme Eastern Washington and Idaho Panhandle could get around a
quarter of an inch of rain. Winds with this system will remain
fairly light as gusts could reach around 18 MPH. High temperatures
will range from the mid 40s to 50s for most habitated locations.

Thursday through Saturday: The models disagree with this period.
The ECMWF is keeping a strong ridge over the region than the GFS
for this period. The GFS will begin to bring another round of
precip into the region on Thursday afternoon while the ECMWF keeps
it West of the Cascades until late Saturday. The POPs were
dropped to a slight chance for most of the Columbia Basin.
Temperatures for this period will still be several degrees above
normal with highs near 60 and lows near 40. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A warm front lifting into eastern WA and north ID will
bring areas of mainly light rain. The band of light rain has
lifted north of all TAF sites. Low level moisture and light winds
behind the warm front will promote low stratus and patchy fog for
KEAT and KMWH through at least 18Z Saturday. Confidence is low
that MVFR cigs may develop at KLWS but light downsloping winds
may keep VFR conditions there. Shower threat develops again
through the afternoon Saturday. This will be accompanied by
increased winds with gusts increasing to 25 to 30 kts after 03Z
Sunday.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        64  44  52  36  50  38 /  20  70  30  10  10  20
Coeur d`Alene  65  43  52  36  48  34 /  20  70  40  30  20  20
Pullman        69  43  52  37  51  36 /  20  60  30  20  10  10
Lewiston       71  48  58  41  56  40 /   0  60  20  20  10  10
Colville       62  44  53  32  51  35 /  30  80  50  20  10  20
Sandpoint      62  43  49  34  46  33 /  10  80  70  30  20  20
Kellogg        62  42  45  36  43  31 /  10  90  50  50  30  20
Moses Lake     64  46  59  35  55  40 /  20  50  10  10   0  30
Wenatchee      62  43  58  40  56  43 /  30  50  20  10   0  50
Omak           59  41  54  34  52  39 /  60  60  30  10   0  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 3 PM PDT Sunday for
     Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Spokane Area-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 251017
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
317 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL MOVE N UP THE OREGON COAST TODAY
THEN MOVE INLAND OVER SW WA TOWARDS PUGET SOUND THIS EVENING
BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE LOW TURNING THE FLOW ONSHORE TONIGHT
AND SUN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE IN MON AND TUE AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE LOW WAS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 40N
129W AT 08Z MOVING NE. BUOY 46002 SHOWED A PRES OF 990 MB N OF THE
LOW...SUGGESTING A CENTRAL PRES AT LEAST A FEW MB BELOW 990. OVERALL
PREFER THE ECMWF FOR PLACEMENT AND PRES...ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE COME
AROUND TO A MUCH MORE COHESIVE PICTURE OF LOW. A SOUTHERLY JET ALONG
THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUGGESTS A TURN TO THE N FOR THE LOW
TODAY...WHICH MODELS NOW UNIFORMLY BRING UP JUST OFF THE OREGON
COAST TODAY WHILE BEGINNING TO FILL. THERE IS A LITTLE SPREAD IN
WHERE THE MODELS BRING THE LOW INLAND...BUT CONSENSUS SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THE LOWMAKING LANDFALL ON THE S WA COAST BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z
TODAY BEFORE HEADING TOWARDS THE S PUGET SOUND AREA. WITH SURFACE
PRES GRADIENTS GENERALLY DEPICTED AROUND 14 TO 16 MB DOWN THE OREOGN
COAST AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND...WILL POST HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THE
CENTRAL AND N OREGON COAST AND THE N OREGON COAST RANGE. S WA COAST
IS A LITTLE IFFY BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
LOW. WITH THE BEST GUESS FOR THE LOW MOVING INLAND OVER PACIFIC
COUNTY WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WARNINGS FOR THE S WA COAST AND WILLAPA
HILLS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY ULTIMATELY REQUIRE A WARNING LATER TODAY. A
THE TRACK OF THE LOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE S SOUND SUGGESTS WINDY
CONDITIONS EXTENDING INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND I-5 CORRIDOR
LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. MODELS INDICATING ABOUT A 6 MB PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN KEUG AND KPDX AS THE LOW PASSES BY TO THE
N..PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING BUT GUSTS TO 50 MPH
NONETHELESS. OVERALL THE PEAK WINDS TODAY AND THIS EVENING EXPECTED
TO BE RELATIVELY QUICK TO PASS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY AND
COLD FRONT FOLLOWS QUICKLY.

LIGHTING INDICATED ON LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORKS TO THE N OF THE
LOW EARLY THIS MORNING OFFSHORE. WILL ADD A MENTION OF THUNDER TO
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS THE LOW LIFTS N...AND INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN SW WA LATE TODAY. WITH THE WARM FRONT ALREADY N AND THE
LOW PASSING BY TO THE N...RAINFALL IS NOT A COMPLETE GIMMIE
TODAY...ESP POINTS FURTHER INLAND. BETTER POPS WILL COME TONIGHT IN
THE WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT AS THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE AND
OROGRAPHICS ADD LIFT TO THE WINDWARD MOUNTAINS. THE COOLER AIR
FOLLOWING THE FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 4500
FT BY SUN MORNING...IN TIME TO EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
FOR THE PASSES IN THE OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS.

A WEAK RIDGE SUN NIGHT WILL BRING A SLOW END TO THE SHOWERS AS WELL
AS SOME COOLER TEMPS. THE NEXT SYSTEM THOUGH...THIS ONE TRACKING E
ACROSS THE N PACIFIC TOWARDS BC...WILL BRING THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN
TO THE N PART OF THE FORECAST AREA MON IN AN AREA OF MOIST WARM AIR
ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THE LONG TERM
STARTS OUT WET WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MON NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM CONTAINS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANA...THAT
SKIRTED HAWAII LAST WEEK. MODELS MAY BE UNDER DOING THE  POTENTIAL
WITH THIS ONE. A STRONG JET STREAM WILL REMAIN DIRECTED AT WA AND
NRN OREGON THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MODELS SHOW LARGE VARIATIONS BEGINNING
WED...BUT EXPECT THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. THE ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW A TREND TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP LOW IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA AMPLIFIES THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...THE AREA IS CURRENTLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT. VFR PREVAILS CURRENTLY WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW. HOWEVER INLAND AREAS HAVE INCREASING IFR FOG
CONDITIONS AS CLOUDS HAVE THINNED SO AREAS OF FOG WILL PROBABLY
PERSIST THROUGH 16Z. A STRONG LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL
TRACK TO THE SOUTH WA COAST. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO IMPACT
COAST AFTER 18Z...THEN AFTER 22Z INLAND.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...PARTIAL CLEARING OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ALLOWING FOG TO DEVELOP. EXPECT IFR IN FOG AT TIMES THROUGH ABOUT
16Z. GUSTY EAST WINDS TOWARD THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE THIS
MORNING THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-35 KT ARE
EXPECTED 22Z SAT THROUGH 03Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...DEEPENING LOW PRES CENTER OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS
TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEAST AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...MAKING LANDFALL
ON THE SOUTH OR CENTRAL WASHINGTON COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY SWITCH TO
SOUTHERLY GALES AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT NEARS. THERE COULD
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF COASTAL JET DEVELOPMENT AS THE FRONT NEARS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...IN THE 2 TO 5 PM PERIOD. LATE AFTERNOON
THE WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THEN EASE
OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAIN GUSTY ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN ZONES
WHERE GALE GUSTS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE PAC NW SUN AND MON. ANOTHER FRONT EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS.

SEAS GENERALLY STARTING OUT AROUND 10 FT WILL PROBABLY BUILD TO
AROUND 15-17 FT GIVEN THE SHORT FETCH TIME. SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
BELOW 10 FT SUNDAY. SEAS LIKELY TO CLIMB TO AROUND 14 FT WITH THE
FRONT LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. /26
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-
     LOWER COLUMBIA.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 AM PDT
     SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 250556
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1056 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts into the region tonight with a band of rain. A
strong cold front passes Saturday Night into Sunday with very
windy conditions, including possible gusts in excess of 40 mph.
The pattern remains active into early next week. This includes the
potential for widespread rain again by Tuesday as moisture
associated with the remains of Tropical Storm Ana makes its way
toward the Pacific Northwest.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
A band of precipitation associated with a warm front is slowly
moving north across the forecast area this evening. The forecast
was updated to better time the precipitation as it moves north.
Some patchy fog was also added to the weather grids for the Lewis-
Clark Valley and into the Moses Lake and Wenatchee areas. Once the
rain ends there will be ample low level moisture and light winds
to allow fog to develop. Stronger winds will follow the cold
frontal passage Saturday evening and a wind advisory remains in
effect for the Palouse and the lower basin. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A warm front lifting into eastern WA and north ID will
bring areas of mainly light rain. The band of light rain has
lifted north of all TAF sites. Low level moisture and light winds
behind the warm front will promote low stratus and patchy fog for
KEAT and KMWH through at least 18Z Saturday. Confidence is low
that MVFR cigs may develop at KLWS but light downsloping winds
may keep VFR conditions there. Shower threat develops again
through the afternoon Saturday. This will be accompanied by
increased winds with gusts increasing to 25 to 30 kts after 03Z
Sunday.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        44  63  43  53  36  50 /  10  10  80  30  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  42  64  42  52  34  49 /  10  10  90  30  20  20
Pullman        45  66  43  50  38  50 /  10  10  70  30  20  20
Lewiston       44  70  47  55  41  56 /  10  10  60  20  20  10
Colville       42  62  44  53  34  51 /  70  20  80  50  20  10
Sandpoint      40  61  42  49  33  47 /  70  20 100  70  30  20
Kellogg        41  60  40  46  34  43 /  10  20 100  50  40  30
Moses Lake     45  61  44  58  36  54 /  10  20  50  10  10   0
Wenatchee      44  60  42  56  39  54 /  30  40  80  10  10  10
Omak           42  57  42  53  34  53 /  70  40  90  30  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Wind Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 3 PM PDT Sunday for Lower
     Garfield and Asotin Counties-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia
     Basin-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 250418
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
920 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT. A FILLING
LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...
BRINGING RAIN AND LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
BE SHOWERY. WET AND BREEZY WEATHER ARE LIKELY AT TIMES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT. RAIN HAS ALREADY SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHERN PUGET
SOUND AND SHOULD FILL IN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MESO MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY DISTINCT
BACK EDGE TO THE RAINS LATER TONIGHT AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTH
INTERIOR WILL SEE RAIN ENDING SOMETIME IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OR
EVEN LATE THIS EVENING. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME GUSTY EAST WINDS
OVER THE EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH
INCREASING EASTERLY GRADIENTS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE ON SATURDAY. AREAS WHERE RAIN TAPERS
LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD SEE RAIN REDEVELOP
DURING THE DAY. THE CURRENT CHANCE OF RAIN FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR ON SATURDAY MIGHT BE TOO OPTIMISTIC.

A FILLING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE NEAR THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON
DURING THE EVENING. BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTH TO WEST WINDS ARE LIKELY
BEHIND THE LOW IN THE EVENING. THIS LOOKS LIKE A BLUSTERY PATTERN
FOR THE SEATTLE AREA.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT BUT THE TREND
SHOULD BE FOR DECREASING PRECIPITATION AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS IN. IT LOOKS FAIRLY DRY MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING AGAIN ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS AGREE THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
BE NEARING THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A DEEP LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND
TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST GRADIENTS WILL BE STRONG ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON BUT WITH THIS PATTERN THERE IS USUALLY NO HIGH WIND.
AFTER RAIN TUESDAY...SHOWERS FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE AROUND NEXT FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK
WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE
40S. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WILL RISE AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO
HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SINCE IT IS STILL RUNNING HIGH FROM
THE PREVIOUS EVENT...IT IS POSSIBLE THE RIVER WILL GET CLOSE TO
FLOOD STAGE ON SATURDAY. FOR NOW THE FORECAST TAKES THE STAGE AT
POTLATCH TO BETWEEN 15.5 AND 16 FEET. FLOOD STAGE IS 16.5 FEET. ON
OTHER RIVERS FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER W WA AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES N ACROSS W WA THROUGH 12Z. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS...WITH SPOTTY IFR CONDITIONS...AS THE RAIN
MOISTENS THE LOWER AIR MASS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS W
WA SATURDAY MORNING. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW WILL
FOLLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREDOMINATE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

KSEA...WARM FRONT RAIN HAS REACHED KSEA AND CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER AS THE RAIN MOISTENS THE LOWER AIR MASS. CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH 07Z AND SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS AFTER 12Z. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO LOW-END MVFR AND PERHAPS OCCASIONAL IFR
IN RAIN AND FOG SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE N-NE 4-10KT
THROUGH 12Z. A SHIFT TO S WINDS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AROUND 15Z OR
SO. KAM

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
VARIOUS MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM INCLUDING THE STRUCTURE AND TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW OR LOWS. THEY HAVE LEANED TOWARD A SOLUTION THAT MOST OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE AND WHICH IS SIMILAR TO 12Z ECMWF. THIS
BRINGS ABOUT A 994 MB SURFACE LOW NE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON
SATURDAY. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. NEW
00Z NAM AND HRRR INDICATE AREAS OF GALE FORCE WINDS SPREADING N
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FOUR COASTAL ZONES LATE TONIGHT...THEN
CONTINUING OFF AND ON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE 00Z NAM
AND 12Z ECMWF THEN BRING A SECOND SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW NE ACROSS ASTORIA AROUND 00Z SUNDAY/5 PM SATURDAY
THEN CONTINUING N-NE TOWARD EITHER N CENTRAL WA OR THE N INTERIOR
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS TRACK HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA OR
BETTER WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW HERE BASED
ON THE UNCERTAIN TRACK OF THE SECOND LOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND BEGIN TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY. ANOTHER VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH
     SATURDAY MORNING.
     WIND ADVISORY FOR BELLEVUE AND VICINITY TONIGHT.
PZ...GALE WARNING SOUTHERN FOUR COASTAL ZONES.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERN TWO COASTAL ZONES AND WEST
      ENTRANCE OF THE STRAIT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KPQR 250357
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
856 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WIND BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING
...PRIMARILY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND IN THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE
SHOWER ACTIVITY. THERE WILL BE A SHORT DRYING PERIOD MONDAY...
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM TUESDAY. THE TUESDAY SYSTEM COULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WARM FRONT IS QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHWARD THIS EVENING
AND THE MAIN RAIN BAND IS NOW MOSTLY NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. I
SAY MOSTLY...BECAUSE THE FRONT IS BEGINNING TO TILT FROM SW TO NE AS
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW...CAUSING THE RAIN TO
PERSIST OVER THE NORTH COAST...NORTH OF CANNON BEACH. THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD BE COMPLETELY NORTH OF THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT RAIN FROM THE COLD FRONT WILL ALREADY BE
PUSHING ONSHORE.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE STRECHING VERTICALLY
SUGGESTING THAT THE TROUGH MAY SPLIT AS THE PREVIOUS NAM MODELS WERE
SHOWING. THERE WAS FAIR UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WINDS OF THIS FORECAST
BEFORE AS THE NAM WAS THE OUTLIER...BUT NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE NAM
MAY BE  THE GFS AND ECMWF. HAVE UPDATED THE WINDS TO
TREND TOWARDS THE 00Z NAM WHICH HAS INCREASED THE WINDS A TAD FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL FLIRTING WITH WARNING CRITERIA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE VALLEY WINDS WILL BE NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE 00Z GFS BEFORE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES
NOW...SINCE THERE IS SUCH A LARGE DISCREPANCY IN THE POSITION OF THE
SURFACE LOW BETWEEN THE 00 NAM AND THE 18Z GFS. IF THE GFS COMES MORE
IN LINE WITH THE NAM THAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE WILL STRENGTHEN...AND
THERE MAY BE THE NEED FOR SOME WIND PRODUCTS WITH THE MORNING
FORECAST PACKAGE.

BACK TO RAIN...THE RAIN WITH A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE TROUGH SPLITS THERE MAY BE
SOME AREAS ALONG THE COAST THAT WILL BE SLOWER TO SEE THE RAIN THAN
OTHERS. LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM WHICH SHOWS THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST
SEEING THE RAIN FIRST. RAIN SHOULD BE OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE CASCADES SATURDAY
EVENING WITH ABUNDANT SHOWERS FILLING IN BEHIND IT...OVER THE COAST
TO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. GENERALLY EXPECT AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
ALONG THE COAST...COAST RANGE AND THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES FROM
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH AROUND 0.4 INCH FOR
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND AROUND 0.6 INCH FOR THE OREGON CASCADES AND
CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAINTAIN
SHOWERS...AS SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO JUST ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES.
THIS TROUGH IS FAIRLY COOL WITH MODELED UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES
AROUND -25C. MODELED LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM...AND NEGATIVE LIS
INDICATE THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWS
THE MAIN INSTABILITY NEAR THE COAST BUT WESTERLY FLOW MAY CARRY ANY
STORMS THAT FORM WESTWARD. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EXPECT LOCAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 4500 FEET.

THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN
RAIN MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT MOIST FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT. TJ

.LONG TERM...THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT WET WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA MON NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM CONTAINS THE REMNANTS
OF HURRICANE ANA...THAT SKIRTED HAWAII LAST WEEK. MODELS MAY BE
UNDER DOING THE  POTENTIAL WITH THIS ONE. A STRONG JET
STREAM WILL REMAIN DIRECTED AT WA AND NRN OREGON THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
MODELS SHOW LARGE VARIATIONS BEGINNING WED...BUT EXPECT THE ACTIVE
PATTERN TO CONTINUE. THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A TREND TOWARD DRIER
CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
AMPLIFIES THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN HAS MOVED NORTH FASTER THAN MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
SHOWN FOR THIS EVENING...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WITH THE WARM
FRONT OVER THE SW WASHINGTON AND FAR NW OREGON COAST. EXPECT
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT BEFORE THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MIDDAY SAT. IFR/LIFR FOG OR LOW
STRATUS WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY
THROUGH AT LEAST 06-08Z SAT...AND LOCALLY IN THE NORTH WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. RAIN RETURNS TO THE COAST BETWEEN 12-14Z SAT...AND INLAND
BETWEEN 14-16Z SAT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE AREA
AFTER 14Z SAT...STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR NEXT 24 HRS...EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE FOR
BRIEF MVFR FOG OR LOW STRATUS FROM 08-12Z SAT. RAIN AND GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT POSSIBLE ARE EXPECTED AFTER 14-16Z
SAT...WITH STRONGEST WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. /27

&&

.MARINE...A DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW
LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON SAT BEFORE
MOVING INLAND LATE SAT NIGHT. STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO START LATE TONIGHT IN THE CENTRAL OR WATERS AND LAST
THROUGH SAT EVENING. IN THE NORTHERN OR AND SOUTHER WA
WATERS...EXPECT GALE CONDITIONS TO BEGIN EARLY SAT MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE GALES
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS PEAKING AT AROUND 15 FT SAT EVENING.

AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND...WINDS WILL BECOME W AND DECREASE WITH
SEAS LOWERING TO AROUND 7 TO 9 FT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE PAC
NW. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FT POSSIBLE. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 AM
     SATURDAY TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 250357
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
856 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WIND BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING
...PRIMARILY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND IN THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE
SHOWER ACTIVITY. THERE WILL BE A SHORT DRYING PERIOD MONDAY...
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM TUESDAY. THE TUESDAY SYSTEM COULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WARM FRONT IS QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHWARD THIS EVENING
AND THE MAIN RAIN BAND IS NOW MOSTLY NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. I
SAY MOSTLY...BECAUSE THE FRONT IS BEGINNING TO TILT FROM SW TO NE AS
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW...CAUSING THE RAIN TO
PERSIST OVER THE NORTH COAST...NORTH OF CANNON BEACH. THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD BE COMPLETELY NORTH OF THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT RAIN FROM THE COLD FRONT WILL ALREADY BE
PUSHING ONSHORE.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE STRECHING VERTICALLY
SUGGESTING THAT THE TROUGH MAY SPLIT AS THE PREVIOUS NAM MODELS WERE
SHOWING. THERE WAS FAIR UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WINDS OF THIS FORECAST
BEFORE AS THE NAM WAS THE OUTLIER...BUT NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE NAM
MAY BE  THE GFS AND ECMWF. HAVE UPDATED THE WINDS TO
TREND TOWARDS THE 00Z NAM WHICH HAS INCREASED THE WINDS A TAD FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL FLIRTING WITH WARNING CRITERIA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE VALLEY WINDS WILL BE NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE 00Z GFS BEFORE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES
NOW...SINCE THERE IS SUCH A LARGE DISCREPANCY IN THE POSITION OF THE
SURFACE LOW BETWEEN THE 00 NAM AND THE 18Z GFS. IF THE GFS COMES MORE
IN LINE WITH THE NAM THAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE WILL STRENGTHEN...AND
THERE MAY BE THE NEED FOR SOME WIND PRODUCTS WITH THE MORNING
FORECAST PACKAGE.

BACK TO RAIN...THE RAIN WITH A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE TROUGH SPLITS THERE MAY BE
SOME AREAS ALONG THE COAST THAT WILL BE SLOWER TO SEE THE RAIN THAN
OTHERS. LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM WHICH SHOWS THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST
SEEING THE RAIN FIRST. RAIN SHOULD BE OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE CASCADES SATURDAY
EVENING WITH ABUNDANT SHOWERS FILLING IN BEHIND IT...OVER THE COAST
TO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. GENERALLY EXPECT AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
ALONG THE COAST...COAST RANGE AND THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES FROM
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH AROUND 0.4 INCH FOR
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND AROUND 0.6 INCH FOR THE OREGON CASCADES AND
CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAINTAIN
SHOWERS...AS SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO JUST ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES.
THIS TROUGH IS FAIRLY COOL WITH MODELED UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES
AROUND -25C. MODELED LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM...AND NEGATIVE LIS
INDICATE THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWS
THE MAIN INSTABILITY NEAR THE COAST BUT WESTERLY FLOW MAY CARRY ANY
STORMS THAT FORM WESTWARD. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EXPECT LOCAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 4500 FEET.

THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN
RAIN MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT MOIST FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT. TJ

.LONG TERM...THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT WET WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA MON NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM CONTAINS THE REMNANTS
OF HURRICANE ANA...THAT SKIRTED HAWAII LAST WEEK. MODELS MAY BE
UNDER DOING THE  POTENTIAL WITH THIS ONE. A STRONG JET
STREAM WILL REMAIN DIRECTED AT WA AND NRN OREGON THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
MODELS SHOW LARGE VARIATIONS BEGINNING WED...BUT EXPECT THE ACTIVE
PATTERN TO CONTINUE. THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A TREND TOWARD DRIER
CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
AMPLIFIES THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN HAS MOVED NORTH FASTER THAN MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
SHOWN FOR THIS EVENING...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WITH THE WARM
FRONT OVER THE SW WASHINGTON AND FAR NW OREGON COAST. EXPECT
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT BEFORE THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MIDDAY SAT. IFR/LIFR FOG OR LOW
STRATUS WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY
THROUGH AT LEAST 06-08Z SAT...AND LOCALLY IN THE NORTH WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. RAIN RETURNS TO THE COAST BETWEEN 12-14Z SAT...AND INLAND
BETWEEN 14-16Z SAT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE AREA
AFTER 14Z SAT...STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR NEXT 24 HRS...EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE FOR
BRIEF MVFR FOG OR LOW STRATUS FROM 08-12Z SAT. RAIN AND GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT POSSIBLE ARE EXPECTED AFTER 14-16Z
SAT...WITH STRONGEST WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. /27

&&

.MARINE...A DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW
LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON SAT BEFORE
MOVING INLAND LATE SAT NIGHT. STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO START LATE TONIGHT IN THE CENTRAL OR WATERS AND LAST
THROUGH SAT EVENING. IN THE NORTHERN OR AND SOUTHER WA
WATERS...EXPECT GALE CONDITIONS TO BEGIN EARLY SAT MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE GALES
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS PEAKING AT AROUND 15 FT SAT EVENING.

AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND...WINDS WILL BECOME W AND DECREASE WITH
SEAS LOWERING TO AROUND 7 TO 9 FT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE PAC
NW. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FT POSSIBLE. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 AM
     SATURDAY TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 250233
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
733 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts into the region tonight with a band of rain. A
strong cold front passes Saturday Night into Sunday with very
windy conditions, including possible gusts in excess of 40 mph.
The pattern remains active into early next week. This includes the
potential for widespread rain again by Tuesday as moisture
associated with the remains of Tropical Storm Ana makes its way
toward the Pacific Northwest.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
A band of precipitation associated with a warm front is slowly
moving north across the forecast area this evening. The forecast
was updated to better time the precipitation as it moves north.
Some patchy fog was also added to the weather grids for the
Lewis-Clark Valley and into the Moses Lake and Wenatchee areas.
Once the rain ends there will be ample low level moisture and
light winds to allow fog to develop. Stronger winds will follow
the cold frontal passage Saturday evening and a wind advisory
remains in effect for the Palouse and the lower basin. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A warm front lifting into eastern WA and north ID will
bring areas of mainly light rain. The -ra is expected to
progress from near the WA/OR border at 00Z to the Canadian border
toward late evening/early overnight. This will impact the TAF
sites with a 2 to 4 hour period of light rain potential, around
LWS/PUW before 03-04Z and northward around 02-06Z. Primarily VFR
conditions are expected, save for near EAT and potentially MWH
where lcl MVFR/IFR cigs will develop in the low level upslope
flow. Look for lull in the precipitation threat around TAF sites
for the overnight and morning hours, before a shower threat
develops again through the afternoon Saturday. This will be
accompanied by increased winds. (Wind speeds will continue to
strengthen Saturday night into Sunday as a cold front pushes by).
/J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        44  63  43  53  36  50 / 100  10  80  30  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  42  64  42  52  34  49 /  90  10  90  30  20  20
Pullman        45  66  43  50  38  50 / 100  10  70  30  20  20
Lewiston       44  70  47  55  41  56 / 100  10  60  20  20  10
Colville       42  62  44  53  34  51 /  70  20  80  50  20  10
Sandpoint      40  61  42  49  33  47 /  70  20 100  70  30  20
Kellogg        41  60  40  46  34  43 /  90  20 100  50  40  30
Moses Lake     45  61  44  58  36  54 / 100  20  50  10  10   0
Wenatchee      44  60  42  56  39  54 / 100  40  80  10  10  10
Omak           42  57  42  53  34  53 /  90  40  90  30  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Wind Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 3 PM PDT Sunday for Lower
     Garfield and Asotin Counties-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia
     Basin-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 250104 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
604 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WIND BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING
...PRIMARILY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND IN THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE
SHOWER ACTIVITY. THERE WILL BE A SHORT DRYING PERIOD MONDAY...
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM TUESDAY. THE TUESDAY SYSTEM COULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST AREA.

&&
.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AS THE
FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH SLIGHTLY QUICKER THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATED.
ALSO UPDATED QPF AND TO REFLECT THE RAINFALL THAT WAS OBSERVED WITH
THE FRONT EARLIER AS IT WAS ACROSS LANE COUNTY. SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT JUST LIFTED NORTH
OF SALEM. LOW CLOUDS ARE FILLING IN THE INLAND VALLEYS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THERE IS WIDESPREAD RAIN NORTH OF SALEM. TJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...INFRA-RED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND KRTX DOPPLER RADAR SHOW A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST TO NORTH-CENTRAL OREGON. LIGHT RAIN
HAS REACHED A KMMV-KONP LINE AS OF 20Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE THROUGH 20Z HAVE BEEN RATHER
LIGHT..GENERALLY ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED A BIT SINCE THIS MORNING. 20Z KTTD-KDLS
GRADIENT AT -3.3 MB...STILL SLIGHTLY MORE THAN THE 6-HR NAM
FORECAST. HAVE HAD GUSTS TO 25 MPH AT CORBETT AND 35-40 MPH AT CROWN
POINT. GRADIENT SHOULD HOLD AROUND -3.5 MB THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE TO -5 TO -6 MB BY 12Z SAT.

BIGGEST SHORT-TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE DEVELOPING LOW NEAR
39N 132W. LATEST NAM INDICATED A 997 MB CENTER AT 18Z. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD DRY AIR INTRUSION ON THE EAST FLANK OF THE LOW. IT
IS ALSO STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF ELONGATION...SIMILAR TO THE NAM
SOLUTION. MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
DEPTH AND TRACK. BY 12Z SAT THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN
ELONGATED LOW...WITH THE PRIMARY LOW CENTER AT 41N 129W. THE
NAM...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ECMWF...SUGGEST A SECOND WEAKER LOW
CIRCULATION DEVELOPING OFF THE S WA OR FAR N OREGON COAST 12Z SAT.
THE PRESENCE OF TWO LOW CENTERS COULD RESULT IN AN OVERALL WEAKER
SYSTEM. AT 18Z SAT THE GFS MAINTAINS MORE OF A CONSOLIDATE LOW PRES
CENTER JUST W OF KOTH. THE NAM HOLDS ON TO TWO SEPARATE LOW CENTERS
WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE WEAKEST OF ALL MODELS WITH THE
TIGHTEST SURFACE GRADIENT ALONG THE N CALIFORNIA AND FAR S OREGON
COAST. THE 12Z WRF-GFS IS A BIT STRONGER THAN ITS 00Z RUN...
INDICATING A 3-HR PERIOD OF 55-60 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST STARTING AT 21Z SAT. THE 18Z NAM SHOWS 45 KT 975 MB WIND
SPEEDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST FOR 21Z SAT. BASED ON ALL OF THE
ABOVE...AM STILL NOT CONVINCED THE COAST WILL REACH WIDESPREAD
HIGH-WIND CRITERIA. WOULD NOT RULE OUT SPOTTY 55-60 MPH WIND GUSTS
ON THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST HEADLANDS BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND 00Z
SUN...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE THE FREQUENCY AND COVERAGE WARRANT A
HIGHLIGHT. HAVE A HIGHER DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE FOR BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD (2-4 HOURS) OF WINDY
CONDITIONS AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES N-NE INTO SW WA LATE SAT
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 12Z GFS SHOWS A +13 MB 6-HR PRES CHANGE
BULLSEYE NEAR KONP 06Z SUN...WHICH IS PRETTY CLOSE TO BENCHMARK
THRESHOLDS TO GET WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEY. WOULD LIKE TO SEE
THIS ISOBARIC CHANGE IN A MORE SOUTH-TO-NORTH ORIENTATION. IN ANY
EVENT...CURRENT FORECAST OF 35-45 MPH GUSTS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
LATE SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING LOOKS GOOD. STRONGEST GUSTS
SHOULD BE S OF KSLE. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SAT
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...AS THE COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ASHORE.

THIS BROAD UPPER TROUGH...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY...SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHORT-WAVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION. AS
USUAL...THE COAST RANGE...SW WA WILLAPA HILLS AND THE CASCADES WILL
HAVE THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS DUE TO 15-25 KT WLY 850 MB FLOW. SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO NEAR CASCADE PASS LEVELS AS WELL SUNDAY. WEAK RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. CUT BACK ON POPS A
BIT FOR MON...AND FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO TRIM THEM EVEN MORE.
WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT WET WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA MON NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM CONTAINS THE REMNANTS
OF HURRICANE ANA...THAT SKIRTED HAWAII LAST WEEK. MODELS MAY BE
UNDER DOING THE PRECIPITATON POTENTIAL WITH THIS ONE. A STRONG JET
STREAM WILL REMAIN DIRECTED AT WA AND NRN OREGON THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
MODELS SHOW LARGE VARIATIONS BEGINNING WED...BUT EXPECT THE ACTIVE
PATTERN TO CONTINUE. THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A TREND TOWARD DRIER
CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
AMPLIFIES THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN THROUGH 07Z.
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT RAIN
CHANCES TO DECREASE AFTER 08Z AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO WA. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 10Z. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF FOG AND MIST DEVELOPING TOMORROW MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z. WINDS WILL LIKELY TURN
TO THE EAST AFTER 23Z. HOWEVER...TIMING MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.
/64

&&

.MARINE...A DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW
LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON SAT BEFORE
MOVING INLAND ON LATE SAT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO START
LATE TONIGHT IN THE CENTRAL OR WATERS AND LAST THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. IN THE NORTHERN OR AND SOUTHER WA WATERS EXPECT GALE
CONDITIONS TO BEGIN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT. STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE GALES WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS PEAKING AT AROUND 15 FT SATURDAY EVENING.

AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND WINDS WILL BECOME W AND DECREASE WITH SEAS
LOWERING TO AROUND 7 TO 9 FT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE PAC NW.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FT POSSIBLE. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 8 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 AM TO
     8 AM PDT SATURDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 PM
     SATURDAY TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 242348
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
448 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts into the region tonight with a band of rain. A
strong cold front passes Saturday Night into Sunday with very
windy conditions, including possible gusts in excess of 40 mph.
The pattern remains active into early next week. This includes the
potential for widespread rain again by Tuesday as moisture
associated with the remains of Tropical Storm Ana makes its way
toward the Pacific Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Saturday...Warm front comes up from the south tonight
spreading clouds and precipitation from south to north. Saturday
is a bit more complicated as the warm front more or less exits
into Southern British Columbia and a cold frontal zone associated
with the same low pressure system the exiting warm front is tied
into moves inland. A surface low in the vicinity of where both
these fronts tie into low pressure system moves onto the coast as
well. The result of this scenario is an increase in the surface
pressure gradient and the moisture along and ahead of the cold
front invading the sky from the west and keeping a significant
amount of cloud cover in the forecast along with increasing
precipitation chances through the day Saturday. Winds increase
with a warming trend as well. /Pelatti

...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...

Saturday night through Monday night...The progressive pattern
will continue through this portion of the forecast and the models
seem to be doing a good job keeping up. A cold front will move
through the forecast area Saturday night, then stall along the
Montana border Sunday morning. The atmosphere will destabilize
ahead of the front, and with ample moisture available it will
result in widespread showers for the entire forecast area. Model
guidance is picking up on enough surface based and mid level
instability to support a slight chance of thunderstorms from about
Pomeroy northeast to about Mullan Pass. Thunderstorms are not
overly common this time of year and especially at night. This may
end up with some very heavy showers, but this much instability
thunderstorm potential can`t totally be ignored. Localized
moderate to heavy rain and snow showers will be probable through
early Sunday morning. Snow levels will drop behind he front to
between 4k-5k feet. The higher mountains could pick up several
inches of snow.

Another concern will be winds and wind gusts through the night
and into Sunday. A deep surface low will move off the Pacific and
northeast into B.C. This is a perfect set up for the Inland
Northwest to get gusty winds. The surface gradient will increase
to 10-12 mb between Portland and Kalispell, and 850 mb winds
increase to between 40-50kts. Mixing associated with the front
should have no trouble mixing these higher winds down to the
surface. Sustained winds of 20-35 mph with gusts 30-40 mph will be
possible. An area of concern will be the eastern Columbia basin,
the Palouse and the Foothills of the Blue mountains where model
guidance is showing winds 25-40 mph with gusts 40-50 mph. This
will either meet wind advisory criteria or be very close and an
advisory will be issued with the afternoon package.

Rain and mountain snow showers will continue through Sunday
evening with the focus closer to the higher terrain of the the
Cascade crest, the northern Washington and Idaho Panhandle
mountains. However showers will be possible just about anywhere
outside of the deep basin through sunset. Winds will remain strong
and gusty through Sunday but will begin to decrease through Sunday
afternoon.

Weak and short lived high pressure will build into the region on
Monday. Some lingering mountain showers will be possible in the
west-northwest flow but the forecast should be mainly dry. The
next frontal system will begin to move into the Cascades by Monday
evening. Warm over-running precipitation will begin along the
Cascades around 06z Tuesday and slowly push across the forecast
area the remainder of the night for another round of valley rain
and high elevation snow. /Tobin

Tuesday through Friday: The active pattern will continue,
especially early this period as the remnants of Tropical Storm Ana
come into the Pacific Northwest, but models start to disagree by
the second half of the work week. On Tuesday morning low pressure
is centered near northern Vancouver Island, with a warm front
draped across north-central WA through the lower ID Panhandle.
This set-up provides ample isentropic lift with a tap into a
subtropical moisture plume (with PWATs around 150-190% of normal),
until that low pressure center and a westerly 100kt jet pushes
inland. This will lead to the likely threat of rain during the day
outside of the deeper Basin, before the threat backs against the
Cascade crest and retreats to the eastern mountains Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Precipitation could be moderate to locally heavy
in the Cascades and northeast WA and north ID, especially on
Tuesday.

Snow levels linger around 4-5kft in the morning, then rise to
around 5-7kft in the afternoon over a large part of the region.
The main exception could be across the Canadian border counties
where they may linger around that 4-5kft mark. So if precipitation
starts early enough there could be some snow accumulation around
the passes, with the best threat of it lingering through the day
around Sherman Pass where the warmer air may not reach. With this
said, there is still a lot of room for model changes but it is
something to monitor.

From Wednesday night into Friday a long-wave trough deepens
across the eastern Pacific and nudges toward the Pacific Northwest
coast. The southwest flow increases going through this period,
with a warm front lifting back north around late Thursday or
Thursday night, followed by shortwave disturbances skirting by the
Cascades. Models disagree over whether to hold the higher
precipitation threat associated with these features in the
Cascades or to expand it over most of eastern WA/ID. I left at
least a slight chance in most spots from Thursday, with higher
PoPs in the Cascades and mountains. I expand higher PoPs eastward
again Friday as the ridge axis shifts east of the ID/MT border and
there will be more opportunity for any impulses to actually cross
the region and given those better precipitation chances. Given the
overall set-up with the trough offshore and ridge over the
northern Rockies, I also have some patchy fog in the forecast
largely for the night and morning hours across the sheltered
northeast valleys and out into some of the typical Spokane/C`DA
area spots (along the river and out toward the West Plains).

As for temperatures, values remain near to slightly below normal
early this week. Then values start to warm above normal with the
building ridge and southwest flow ahead of the offshore trough,
especially toward Thursday into Friday. The only possible caveat
will be the potential for any fog/stratus holding temperatures
back from reaching their full potential. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A warm front lifting into eastern WA and north ID will
bring areas of mainly light rain. The -ra is expected to
progress from near the WA/OR border at 00Z to the Canadian border
toward late evening/early overnight. This will impact the TAF
sites with a 2 to 4 hour period of light rain potential, around
LWS/PUW before 03-04Z and northward around 02-06Z. Primarily VFR
conditions are expected, save for near EAT and potentially MWH
where lcl MVFR/IFR cigs are possible in the low level upslope
flow. Look for lull in the precipitation threat around TAF sites
for the overnight and morning hours, before a shower threat develops
again through the afternoon Saturday. This will be accompanied by
increased winds. (Wind speeds will continue to strengthen Saturday
night into Sunday as a cold front pushes by). /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        44  63  43  53  36  50 /  60  10  80  30  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  42  64  42  52  34  49 /  50  10  90  30  20  20
Pullman        45  66  43  50  38  50 /  50  10  70  30  20  20
Lewiston       44  70  47  55  41  56 /  50  10  60  20  20  10
Colville       42  62  44  53  34  51 /  70  20  80  50  20  10
Sandpoint      40  61  42  49  33  47 /  70  20 100  70  30  20
Kellogg        41  60  40  46  34  43 /  60  20 100  50  40  30
Moses Lake     45  61  44  58  36  54 /  80  20  50  10  10   0
Wenatchee      44  60  42  56  39  54 /  80  40  80  10  10  10
Omak           42  57  42  53  34  53 /  90  40  90  30  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Wind Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 3 PM PDT Sunday for Lower
     Garfield and Asotin Counties-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia
     Basin-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 242210
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
308 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WIND BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING
...PRIMARILY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND IN THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE
SHOWER ACTIVITY. THERE WILL BE A SHORT DRYING PERIOD MONDAY...
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM TUESDAY. THE TUESDAY SYSTEM COULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND KRTX DOPPLER RADAR SHOW A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST TO NORTH-CENTRAL OREGON. LIGHT RAIN HAS REACHED A
KMMV-KONP LINE AS OF 20Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST AND COAST RANGE THROUGH 20Z HAVE BEEN RATHER LIGHT..GENERALLY
ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS
STRENGTHENED A BIT SINCE THIS MORNING. 20Z KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT AT -3.3
MB...STILL SLIGHTLY MORE THAN THE 6-HR NAM FORECAST. HAVE HAD GUSTS
TO 25 MPH AT CORBETT AND 35-40 MPH AT CROWN POINT. GRADIENT SHOULD
HOLD AROUND -3.5 MB THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE TO -5 TO -6
MB BY 12Z SAT.

BIGGEST SHORT-TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE DEVELOPING LOW NEAR
39N 132W. LATEST NAM INDICATED A 997 MB CENTER AT 18Z. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD DRY AIR INTRUSION ON THE EAST FLANK OF THE LOW. IT
IS ALSO STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF ELONGATION...SIMILAR TO THE NAM
SOLUTION. MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
DEPTH AND TRACK. BY 12Z SAT THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN
ELONGATED LOW...WITH THE PRIMARY LOW CENTER AT 41N 129W. THE
NAM...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ECMWF...SUGGEST A SECOND WEAKER LOW
CIRCULATION DEVELOPING OFF THE S WA OR FAR N OREGON COAST 12Z SAT.
THE PRESENCE OF TWO LOW CENTERS COULD RESULT IN AN OVERALL WEAKER
SYSTEM. AT 18Z SAT THE GFS MAINTAINS MORE OF A CONSOLIDATE LOW PRES
CENTER JUST W OF KOTH. THE NAM HOLDS ON TO TWO SEPARATE LOW CENTERS
WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE WEAKEST OF ALL MODELS WITH THE
TIGHTEST SURFACE GRADIENT ALONG THE N CALIFORNIA AND FAR S OREGON
COAST. THE 12Z WRF-GFS IS A BIT STRONGER THAN ITS 00Z RUN...
INDICATING A 3-HR PERIOD OF 55-60 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST STARTING AT 21Z SAT. THE 18Z NAM SHOWS 45 KT 975 MB WIND
SPEEDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST FOR 21Z SAT. BASED ON ALL OF THE
ABOVE...AM STILL NOT CONVINCED THE COAST WILL REACH WIDESPREAD
HIGH-WIND CRITERIA. WOULD NOT RULE OUT SPOTTY 55-60 MPH WIND GUSTS
ON THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST HEADLANDS BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND 00Z
SUN...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE THE FREQUENCY AND COVERAGE WARRANT A
HIGHLIGHT. HAVE A HIGHER DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE FOR BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD (2-4 HOURS) OF WINDY
CONDITIONS AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES N-NE INTO SW WA LATE SAT
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 12Z GFS SHOWS A +13 MB 6-HR PRES CHANGE
BULLSEYE NEAR KONP 06Z SUN...WHICH IS PRETTY CLOSE TO BENCHMARK
THRESHOLDS TO GET WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEY. WOULD LIKE TO SEE
THIS ISALLOBARIC CHANGE IN A MORE SOUTH-TO-NORTH ORIENTATION. IN ANY
EVENT...CURRENT FORECAST OF 35-45 MPH GUSTS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
LATE SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING LOOKS GOOD. STRONGEST GUSTS
SHOULD BE S OF KSLE. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SAT
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...AS THE COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ASHORE.

THIS BROAD UPPER TROUGH...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY...SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHORT-WAVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION. AS
USUAL...THE COAST RANGE...SW WA WILLAPA HILLS AND THE CASCADES WILL
HAVE THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS DUE TO 15-25 KT WLY 850 MB FLOW. SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO NEAR CASCADE PASS LEVELS AS WELL SUNDAY. WEAK RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. CUT BACK ON POPS A
BIT FOR MON...AND FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO TRIM THEM EVEN MORE.
WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT WET WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA MON NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM CONTAINS THE REMNANTS
OF HURRICANE ANA...THAT SKIRTED HAWAII LAST WEEK. MODELS MAY BE
UNDERDOING THE PRECIPITATON POTENTIAL WITH THIS ONE. A STRONG JET
STREAM WILL REMAIN DIRECTED AT WA AND NRN OREGON THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
MODELS SHOW LARGE VARIATIONS BEGINNING WED...BUT EXPECT THE ACTIVE
PATTERN TO CONTINUE. THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A TREND TOWARD DRIER
CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
AMPLIFIES THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN THROUGH 07Z.
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT RAIN
CHANCES TO DECREASE AFTER 08Z AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO WA. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 10Z. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF FOG AND MIST DEVELOPING TOMORROW MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z. WINDS WILL LIKELY TURN
TO THE EAST AFTER 23Z. HOWEVER...TIMING MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.
/64

&&

.MARINE...A DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW
LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON SAT BEFORE
MOVING INLAND ON LATE SAT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO START
LATE TONIGHT IN THE CENTRAL OR WATERS AND LAST THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. IN THE NORTHERN OR AND SOUTHER WA WATERS EXPECT GALE
CONDITIONS TO BEGIN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT. STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE GALES WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS PEAKING AT AROUND 15 FT SATURDAY EVENING.

AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND WINDS WILL BECOME W AND DECREASE WITH SEAS
LOWERING TO AROUND 7 TO 9 FT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE PAC NW.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FT POSSIBLE. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 8 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 AM TO
     8 AM PDT SATURDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 PM
     SATURDAY TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KSEW 242154
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT. A FILLING
LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...
BRINGING RAIN AND LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
BE SHOWERY. WET AND BREEZY WEATHER ARE LIKELY AT TIMES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A DEEP LOW CENTER WELL OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ONTO THE
WASHINGTON COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY NIGHT AND BE OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY.

THE FIRST FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS A WEAK WARM FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS WASHINGTON TONIGHT. THIS
WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA. AMOUNTS EAST OF PUGET SOUND ARE
LIKELY TO BE LIGHT AS STRONG EASTERLY WINDS BEGIN IN RESPONSE TO
EASTERLY GRADIENTS. MODELS DO SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER THE
OLYMPICS AND COAST...SPREADING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN INTERIOR
SATURDAY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE EAST
PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS AND THE BELLEVUE AREA.

THE SECOND FEATURE IS THE STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS THAT FOLLOW THE
PASSAGE OF THE LOW CENTER SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE ARE LIKELY TO BRING
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO MOST AREAS. AT THIS TIME THERE DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT OF HIGH WIND.

THE FINAL FEATURE IS THE 18 HOURS OR SO OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
OLYMPICS...FROM 06Z TONIGHT TO 00Z SUNDAY. THE RAINIER PARTS WILL
GET 2-3 INCHES...WITH MOST OF THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA GETTING AN INCH
OR MORE. RAIN WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY SATURDAY NIGHT...FIRST IN
THE OLYMPICS AND THEN IN THE CASCADES.

THE WEATHER WILL BE MORE SHOWERY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH LIKELY POPS
ON THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...CHANCE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS. HIGHS WILL NOT VARY MUCH...55-60 ON SATURDAY FALLING TO
AROUND 55 ON MONDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. BURKE

.LONG TERM...MODELS AGREE THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE NEARING THE COAST
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A DEEP LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT
IS FORECAST TO CROSS NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST
GRADIENTS WILL BE STRONG ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON BUT WITH THIS
PATTERN THERE IS USUALLY NO HIGH WIND. AFTER RAIN TUESDAY...SHOWERS
FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE AROUND
NEXT FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WILL RISE AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO
HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SINCE IT IS STILL RUNNING HIGH FROM
THE PREVIOUS EVENT...IT IS POSSIBLE THE RIVER WILL GET CLOSE TO
FLOOD STAGE ON SATURDAY. FOR NOW THE FORECAST TAKES THE STAGE AT
POTLATCH TO BETWEEN 15.5 AND 16 FEET. FLOOD STAGE IS 16.5 FEET. ON
OTHER RIVERS FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON THROUGH SATURDAY AS A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE REGION. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MOIST ALL LEVELS THIS EVENING
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THE SURFACE LOW
AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SATURDAY.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. RAIN BEGAN IN PORTLAND JUST BEFORE 2 PM. IT WILL REACH THE
SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...SEATTLE
AROUND 9 PM AND BELLINGHAM AROUND MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW-END MVFR AND LOCAL IFR
FROM ROUGHLY 6 AM TO NOON SATURDAY. MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY
SATURDAY.

KSEA...LIGHT WIND BECOMING NORTHEAST 5-12 KT..AND OCCASIONAL
EASTERLY GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY 8-16 KT SAT AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE
TO LOW-END MVFR AND PERHAPS OCCASIONAL IFR IN RAIN AND FOG SATURDAY
MORNING.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A
995 MB LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AND ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ALL WATERS AT SOME POINT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...BEGINNING WITH THE COASTAL WATERS AND SPREADING
INLAND. IN ADDITION THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SOUTHERLY GALES ALONG
THE INNER COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LOW ARRIVES. THE
TRACK OF THE LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AND CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS
OF THE FORECAST IS ACCORDINGLY LOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND BEGIN TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY. ANOTHER VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH
     SATURDAY MORNING.
     WIND ADVISORY FOR BELLEVUE AND VICINITY TONIGHT.
PZ...GALE WARNING FOR INNER COASTAL WATERS ZONES PZZ153 AND PZZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINING COASTAL WATERS ZONES AND WEST
     ENTRANCE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KOTX 242144
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
244 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift through the region tonight with a band of
rain. A strong cold front passage Saturday Night and Sunday will
produce very windy conditions with gusts in excess of 40 mph. The
pattern will continue to be active into early next week. This
includes the potential for widespread rain into early next week as
moisture associated with former typhoons makes its way toward the
Pacific Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Saturday...Warm front comes up from the south tonight
spreading clouds and precipitation from south to north. Saturday
is a bit more complicated as the warm front more or less exits
into Southern British Columbia and a cold frontal zone associated
with the same low pressure system the exiting warm front is tied
into moves inland. A surface low in the vicinity of where both
these fronts tie into low pressure system moves onto the coast as
well. The result of this scenario is an increase in the surface
pressure gradient and the moisture along and ahead of the cold
front invading the sky from the west and keeping a significant
amount of cloud cover in the forecast along with increasing
precipitation chances through the day Saturday. Winds increase
with a warming trend as well. /Pelatti

...strong...gusty winds are expected Saturday night and Sunday...

Saturday night through Monday night...The progressive pattern
will continue through this portion of the forecast and the models
seem to be doing a good job keeping up. A cold front will move
through the forecast area Saturday night, then stall along the
Montana border Sunday morning. The atmosphere will destabilize
ahead of the front, and with ample moisture available it will
result in widespread showers for the entire forecast area. Model
guidance is picking up on enough surface based and mid level
instability to support a slight chance of thunderstorms from about
Pomeroy northeast to about Mullan Pass. Thunderstorms are not
overly common this time of year and especially at night. This may
end up with some very heavy showers, but this much instability
thunderstorm potential can`t totally be ignored. Localized
moderate to heavy rain and snow showers will be probable through
early Sunday morning. Snow levels will drop behind he front to
between 4k-5k feet. The higher mountains could pick up several
inches of snow.

Another concern will be winds and wind gusts through the night
and into Sunday. A deep surface low will move off the Pacific and
northeast into B.C. This is a perfect set up for the Inland
Northwest to get gusty winds. The surface gradient will increase
to 10-12 mb between Portland and Kalispell, and 850 mb winds
increase to between 40-50kts. Mixing associated with the front
should have no trouble mixing these higher winds down to the
surface. Sustained winds of 20-35 mph with gusts 30-40 mph will be
possible. An area of concern will be the eastern Columbia basin,
the Palouse and the Foothills of the Blue mountains where model
guidance is showing winds 25-40 mph with gusts 40-50 mph. This
will either meet wind advisory criteria or be very close and an
advisory will be issued with the afternoon package.

Rain and mountain snow showers will continue through Sunday
evening with the focus closer to the higher terrain of the the
Cascade crest, the northern Washington and Idaho Panhandle
mountains. However showers will be possible just about anywhere
outside of the deep basin through sunset. Winds will remain strong
and gusty through Sunday but will begin to decrease through Sunday
afternoon.

Weak and short lived high pressure will build into the region on
Monday. Some lingering mountain showers will be possible in the
west-northwest flow but the forecast should be mainly dry. The
next frontal system will begin to move into the Cascades by Monday
evening. Warm over-running precipitation will begin along the
Cascades around 06z Tuesday and slowly push across the forecast
area the remainder of the night for another round of valley rain
and high elevation snow. /Tobin

Tuesday through Friday: The active pattern will continue,
especially early this period as the remnants of Tropical Storm Ana
come into the Pacific Northwest, but models start to disagree by
the second half of the work week. On Tuesday morning low pressure
is centered near northern Vancouver Island, with a warm front
draped across north-central WA through the lower ID Panhandle.
This set-up provides ample isentropic lift with a tap into a
subtropical moisture plume (with PWATs around 150-190% of normal),
until that low pressure center and a westerly 100kt jet pushes
inland. This will lead to the likely threat of rain during the day
outside of the deeper Basin, before the threat backs against the
Cascade crest and retreats to the eastern mountains Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Precipitation could be moderate to locally heavy
in the Cascades and northeast WA and north ID, especially on
Tuesday.

Snow levels linger around 4-5kft in the morning, then rise to
around 5-7kft in the afternoon over a large part of the region.
The main exception could be across the Canadian border counties
where they may linger around that 4-5kft mark. So if precipitation
starts early enough there could be some snow accumulation around
the passes, with the best threat of it lingering through the day
around Sherman Pass where the warmer air may not reach. With this
said, there is still a lot of room for model changes but it is
something to monitor.

From Wednesday night into Friday a long-wave trough deepens
across the eastern Pacific and nudges toward the Pacific Northwest
coast. The southwest flow increases going through this period,
with a warm front lifting back north around late Thursday or
Thursday night, followed by shortwave disturbances skirting by the
Cascades. Models disagree over whether to hold the higher
precipitation threat associated with these features in the
Cascades or to expand it over most of eastern WA/ID. I left at
least a slight chance in most spots from Thursday, with higher
PoPs in the Cascades and mountains. I expand higher PoPs eastward
again Friday as the ridge axis shifts east of the ID/MT border and
there will be more opportunity for any impulses to actually cross
the region and given those better precipitation chances. Given the
overall set-up with the trough offshore and ridge over the
northern Rockies, I also have some patchy fog in the forecast
largely for the night and morning hours across the sheltered
northeast valleys and out into some of the typical Spokane/C`DA
area spots (along the river and out toward the West Plains).

As for temperatures, values remain near to slightly below normal
early this week. Then values start to warm above normal with the
building ridge and southwest flow ahead of the offshore trough,
especially toward Thursday into Friday. The only possible caveat
will be the potential for any fog/stratus holding temperatures
back from reaching their full potential. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Little change to the previous forecast timing with VFR
conditions expected at all TAF sites through 00z with cigs steadily
lowering through the day ahead of a warm front, currently over
Oregon and Central Idaho, which will move north overnight. The
front will develop a east- west band of rain which will hit LWS
MWH EAT and PUW around 00z and push into the GEG SFF COE area
around 02z. Once the rain begins...we expect to see some clouds
develop below 030 but we don`t expect prevalent cigs at MVFR
levels. The one exception will be at EAT due to proximity to
Cascades combined with upslope flow. The warm front will deliver
about 6 hrs of precipitation to most sites (persisting a little
longer at EAT) with improving conditions after that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        44  63  43  53  36  50 /  60  10  80  30  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  42  64  42  52  34  49 /  50  10  90  30  20  20
Pullman        45  66  43  50  38  50 /  50  10  70  30  20  20
Lewiston       44  70  47  55  41  56 /  50  10  60  20  20  10
Colville       42  62  44  53  34  51 /  70  20  80  50  20  10
Sandpoint      40  61  42  49  33  47 /  70  20 100  70  30  20
Kellogg        41  60  40  46  34  43 /  60  20 100  50  40  30
Moses Lake     45  61  44  58  36  54 /  80  20  50  10  10   0
Wenatchee      44  60  42  56  39  54 /  80  40  80  10  10  10
Omak           42  57  42  53  34  53 /  90  40  90  30  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Wind Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 3 PM PDT Sunday for Lower
     Garfield and Asotin Counties-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia
     Basin-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 241744
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1044 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy and unsettled conditions will continue for the rest
of today but be on the decrease tonight and into tomorrow. This is
only temporary as rain is expected to return Friday night and
Saturday. A strong cold front passage Saturday Night and Sunday
will produce very windy conditions with gusts in excess of 40 mph.
The pattern will continue to be active into early next week. This
includes the potential for widespread rain into early next week as
moisture associated with former typhoons makes its way toward the
Pacific Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tonight...Looks like this period will see a little
break in the action in regards to our recent string of wet weather.
The anomalously moist atmospheric river has temporarily dipped
south of our forecast area. As of 2am...about the only weather
action was a blanket of high level moisture covering most of the
region. This cloud cover was associated with the 130-150kt upper
level jet. This dry respite will gradually come to an end this
morning in response to deep upstream trough centered near
35n/139w. Models in good agreement that as this trough moves
closer to the coast...the atmospheric river will buckle northward
as a warm front and push steadily across the Oregon/Washington
border. This transition will be accompanied by backing mid-level
flow (southerly winds)...leading toward a significant increase in
isentropic ascent and moisture advection. This will result in an
increasing chance of precipitation. By midday most of the
precipitation will be just south of our forecast area...however
some light rain could creep into the Blue Mountains and Camas
Prairie. By the latter half of the day...there is good model
agreement that the northern edge of the preciptiation will lie
approximately from Pullman to Moses Lake.

The front will continue to surge northward overnight...reaching
the Canadian Border well after midnight. Based on the good
moisture availability and moderate isentropic ascent...most areas
will receive some precipitation. Confidence is highest however
near the Cascades...as the 850-700 mb layer takes on a well
defined southeast-east wind regime. This will lead to good
orographic ascent which will only be bolstered by strong
divergence aloft. Categorical pops will be justified for locations
west of a Republic to Wenatchee line...and QPF totals will likely
range from a quarter to half inch. Snow levels will likely be
fairly high...ranging from 5.5-6k feet. This should not pose any
travel problems...however some snow can be expected to fall late
tonight over the highest parts of the North Cascades Highway.
While the precipitation really gets going late tonight over
locations near the Canadian Border...it will begin to taper off
near the Oregon border as the dry slot move in behind the warm
front. fx

Saturday through Monday Night: An upper level trough and surface
low will approach the southern Oregon coast Saturday. This weather
disturbance will bring an increase in cloud cover through the day.
As the surface low moves up the coast through the day and then
pushes inland through the evening our chance of precipitation will
increase. Have increased chance of precipitation for most
locations as many locations should receive at least 0.01 of
precip as this feature moves through. Even normally dry locations
such as the basin and east slope of the Cascades valleys could see
rain given the decent southeast upslope flow ahead of the cold
front.

...Breezy to windy conditions expected Saturday Night and Sunday...

Winds  associated with the cold front will be quite strong.
Saturday evening southerly winds 10 to 20 mph will be common
across most of the Columbia Basin and into the Palouse and
Spokane/CDA areas. Those winds will increase through the overnight
hours and into Sunday morning to 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 or
45 mph. Right now the strongest winds look to stretch from the
Blue Mountains up through the Palouse. Winds will slowly decrease
through Sunday afternoon and into the evening hours as the surface
low weakens and continues to move east across southern Canada.

Sunday the chance of precipitation will decrease through the
evening hours. The exception to this will be the Cascade crest and
ID Panhandle where showers will likely continue. A flat ridge
moves into the Inland Northwest Monday ahead of the next
potentially big soaker. Chance of precip will increase through the
overnight hours and into Tuesday morning, especially along the
Cascade Mountains and nearby valleys as the next weather system
moves onto the west coast.

Temperatures will start out at or above average on Saturday and
then drop to near average readings by Sunday and then to slightly
below average readings by Monday. /Nisbet

Tuesday through Thursday: The models are depicting a shortwave
trough pushing through the region followed by a weak ridge
building into the region for this period. For Tuesday, widespread
rain is expected in the morning. Precip chances will decrease from
West to East as the period progresses into Wednesday leaving only
the Idaho Panhandle with high potential to receive rain. Model
agreement on Thursday is not high but they are indicating a Low
in the Gulf of Alaska beginning to press into the Pacific
Northwest and bringing some precip to the Cascades. Light winds
associated with this pattern has potential for morning fog int he
northern valleys. Temperatures will still be above normal with
highs in the mid 50s to low 60s and lows in the upper 30s to mid
40s. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Little change to the previous forecast timing with VFR
conditions expected at all TAF sites through 00z with cigs steadily
lowering through the day ahead of a warm front, currently over
Oregon and Central Idaho, which will move north overnight. The
front will develop a east- west band of rain which will hit LWS
MWH EAT and PUW around 00z and push into the GEG SFF COE area
around 02z. Once the rain begins...we expect to see some clouds
develop below 030 but we don`t expect prevalent cigs at MVFR
levels. The one exception will be at EAT due to proximity to
Cascades combined with upslope flow. The warm front will deliver
about 6 hrs of precipitation to most sites (persisting a little
longer at EAT) with improving conditions after that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  44  65  43  52  36 /   0  60  30  80  30  10
Coeur d`Alene  55  42  65  42  51  34 /  10  50  30  90  30  20
Pullman        55  45  68  42  49  38 /  30  50  20  80  30  20
Lewiston       59  44  72  47  56  41 /  40  50  10  60  20  20
Colville       54  42  62  45  52  35 /  10  70  30  80  50  20
Sandpoint      53  40  61  42  48  34 /  10  70  30  90  50  30
Kellogg        52  41  64  40  45  34 /  10  60  20  90  40  30
Moses Lake     57  45  60  45  59  37 /  10  80  20  30  10  10
Wenatchee      57  44  57  43  55  38 /  10  80  60  40  10  10
Omak           56  42  55  43  54  35 /  10  90  50  50  30  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 241647
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
945 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN INTO SW OREGON
THIS MORNING AND ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS
THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...KRTX DOPPLER RADAR SHOWING SOME
LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. 15Z METARS NOT INDICATING ANY PRECIPITATION...EVEN AT KEUG.
SUSPECT MOST OF THE ECHOES ACROSS LANE COUNTY ARE VIRGA. PATCHY FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES AREA NEAR 39N 133W AT
15Z. WARM FRONT EXTENDING OUTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS SRN
OREGON...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N DURING THE DAY.

OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY. 15Z
KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT WAS -2.6 MB...WHICH IS A BIT STRONGER THAN THE
3-HR 12Z NAM FORECAST. GRADIENT LIKELY TO BE AROUND -3 TO -3.5 MB BY
00Z SAT...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE WEST END OF THE
COLUMBIA GORGE. AREAS N OF KSLE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTERNOON.

BIGGEST SHORT-TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE DEVELOPING LOW.
MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE DEPTH AND
TRACK. BY 12Z SAT THE 12Z NAM...06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW AN
ELONGATED LOW...WITH THE PRIMARY LOW CENTER AT 41N 129W. SOME
DIFFERENCES START TO CROP UP AT THE 18Z TIME STEP...WITH THE NAM
MOVING THE LOW FURTHER N UP THE OREGON COAST COMPARED TO THE 06Z GFS
AND 00Z ECMWF. THE 00Z WRF-GFS BACKED OFF ON THE PEAK WIND GUSTS FOR
THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. THE 12Z THU RUN SHOWED A SMALL CORE OF
60-70 KT GUSTS EARLY SAT AFTERNOON BETWEEN NEWPORT AND FLORENCE. THE
00Z RUN KNOCKED THESE DOWN TO AROUND 50 KT. THE 12Z NAM DOES INDICATE
TWO SEPARATE LOW CENTERS 18Z SAT...WITH THE TIGHTEST S GRADIENT ALONG
THE N CALIFORNIA COAST. THE NAM DOES SHOW 50 KT 975 MB WIND SPEEDS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST 18Z SAT...BUT BY 21Z THE STRONGEST 975 MB
WIND SPEED IS AROUND 40 KT. NOT CONVINCED THE COAST WILL REACH
HIGH-WIND CRITERIA. WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED 55-60 MPH WIND GUSTS
ON THE HEADLANDS BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND 00Z SUN. HAVE HIGHER DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE FOR BLUSTERY CONDITIONS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. EXPECT A
BRIEF PERIOD (2-4 HOURS) OF WINDY CONDITIONS AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
N-NE INTO SW WA LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 12Z GFS SHOWS A
+13 MB 6-HR PRES CHANGE BULLSEYE NEAR KONP 06Z SUN...WHICH IS PRETTY
CLOSE TO BENCHMARK THRESHOLDS TO GET WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEY.
WOULD LIKE TO SEE THIS ISALLOBARIC CHANGE IN A MORE SOUTH-TO-NORTH
ORIENTATION. IN ANY EVENT...CURRENT FORECAST OF 35-45 MPH GUSTS IN
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY LATE SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING LOOKS
GOOD. STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD BE S OF KSLE.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY...SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHORT-WAVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO NEAR CASCADE PASS LEVELS SUNDAY. WEAK RIDGING MOVES
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCES
DWINDLING BRIEFLY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM...INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ANA...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY BRINGING CONTINUED RAIN AND WINDS ALONG THE COAST. SHORTWAVES
WILL SUPPORT RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEGINNING AROUND THURSDAY THE
MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE EXTENT THAT CLIMO SEEMS THE BEST
BET AT THIS POINT FOR THE REMAINING 24 HRS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BOWEN/27

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGTH RAIN...MAINLY
SOUTH...THROUGH AROUND 19Z. A FEW LOCATIONS WITH MVFR OR IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AFTER 19Z
AND SPREAD RAIN INTO NW OR. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR
WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS. RAIN DECREASING AFTER 08Z AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO WA.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BEFORE
MORE GENERAL RAIN DEVELOPS...MAINLY AFTER 19Z AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO NW OR. /64

&&

.MARINE...MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH LIGHT E WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. A DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
FROM THE SW AND MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON SAT AND INLAND
LATE SAT. THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THE MOMENT AS MODELS HAVE THE LOW BECOMING MORE ELONGATED...BUT
STILL EXPECTING SOUTHERLY GALES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GALES WILL
BRING STEEP SEAS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING 20 FT POSSIBLE
THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND WINDS WILL BECOME W AND DECREASE WITH SEAS
LOWERING TO AROUND 8 TO 10 FT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE PAC NW.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
/64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
    60 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 AM TO
     8 AM PDT SATURDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KSEW 241602
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW AND A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP
WESTERN WASHINGTON DRY TODAY. RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TONIGHT. A FILLING LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN AND LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS. WET AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY WILL BE A QUIET AND MAINLY DRY DAY AS THE AREA
IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS. OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY THEN
INCREASE TONIGHT AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND MOVES NORTHEAST. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT
FOR EAST WINDS OVER THE EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS. RAIN WILL SPREAD
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT PASSES. AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY TO BE PRETTY LIGHT EAST OF PUGET SOUND WHERE THE OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL MAKE THE AIR MASS DRIER.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW...NOW FILLING...WILL REACH THE CENTRAL
COAST. IT WILL MOVE INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN ALONG WITH BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER MOST AREAS. ON
SUNDAY HIGH PRES WILL START TO BUILD AND SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS CALM AND
DRIER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL ALL THREE DAYS. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A LULL OR BREAK IN PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE QUICKLY
APPROACHING. THE 00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH CONTAINS THE REMNANTS OF AN EX-TROPICAL
SYSTEM. FORTUNATELY IT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT
RAIN AMOUNTS. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF GRADIENT WITH THIS LOW AND
LOCATIONS PRONE TO SE WIND...LIKE WHIDBEY ISLAND NWD...COULD SEE
SOME STRONG WINDS ON TUESDAY. MODELS WEAKEN THE LOW AS IT CROSSES
NEAR OR JUST N OF WA SO STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER OTHER
INLAND AREAS AT THIS POINT.

YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS SET TO ARRIVE MID WEEK. MODELS
DIVERGE ON THE LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION BY THURSDAY SO IT IS
DIFFICULT TO TELL WHETHER ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR AREA.
THE ECMWF SHIFTS THE TROUGH FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE KEEPING A TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW.  MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON THROUGH TONIGHT AS A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MOIST ALL LEVELS THIS EVENING
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SKY
COVER SCT-BKN035 SCT-BKN120. HOWEVER ISOLATED FOG WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE SOUTH PUGET SOUND REGION AND
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO WIDESPREAD LOW-END MVFR AND AREAS
OF IFR BY SATURDAY MORNING.

KSEA...LIGHT WIND BECOMING NORTHEAST 5-12 KT..AND OCCASIONAL
EASTERLY GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DETERIORATE TO LOW-END MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR IN RAIN AND FOG
SATURDAY MORNING.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST BRITISH COLUMBIA AND A
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST
OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL
MOVE NORTH THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT...AND THE LOW WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN WASHINGTON INTERIOR LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. GALES ARE POSSIBLE BUT UNLIKELY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
SUNDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA MONDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND ITS DEVELOPING LOW WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR
POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH
     SATURDAY MORNING.
     WIND ADVISORY FOR BELLEVUE AND VICINITY TONIGHT.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KOTX 241221
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
520 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy and unsettled conditions will continue for the rest
of today but be on the decrease tonight and into tomorrow. This is
only temporary as rain is expected to return Friday night and
Saturday. A strong cold front passage Saturday Night and Sunday
will produce very windy conditions with gusts in excess of 40 mph.
The pattern will continue to be active into early next week. This
includes the potential for widespread rain into early next week as
moisture associated with former typhoons makes its way toward the
Pacific Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tonight...Looks like this period will see a little
break in the action in regards to our recent string of wet weather.
The anomalously moist atmospheric river has temporarily dipped
south of our forecast area. As of 2am...about the only weather
action was a blanket of high level moisture covering most of the
region. This cloud cover was associated with the 130-150kt upper
level jet. This dry respite will gradually come to an end this
morning in response to deep upstream trough centered near
35n/139w. Models in good agreement that as this trough moves
closer to the coast...the atmospheric river will buckle northward
as a warm front and push steadily across the Oregon/Washington
border. This transition will be accompanied by backing mid-level
flow (southerly winds)...leading toward a significant increase in
isentropic ascent and moisture advection. This will result in an
increasing chance of precipitation. By midday most of the
precipitation will be just south of our forecast area...however
some light rain could creep into the Blue Mountains and Camas
Prairie. By the latter half of the day...there is good model
agreement that the northern edge of the preciptiation will lie
approximately from Pullman to Moses Lake.

The front will continue to surge northward overnight...reaching
the Canadian Border well after midnight. Based on the good
moisture availability and moderate isentropic ascent...most areas
will receive some precipitation. Confidence is highest however
near the Cascades...as the 850-700 mb layer takes on a well
defined southeast-east wind regime. This will lead to good
orographic ascent which will only be bolstered by strong
divergence aloft. Categorical pops will be justified for locations
west of a Republic to Wenatchee line...and QPF totals will likely
range from a quarter to half inch. Snow levels will likely be
fairly high...ranging from 5.5-6k feet. This should not pose any
travel problems...however some snow can be expected to fall late
tonight over the highest parts of the North Cascades Highway.
While the precipitation really gets going late tonight over
locations near the Canadian Border...it will begin to taper off
near the Oregon border as the dry slot move in behind the warm
front. fx

Saturday through Monday Night: An upper level trough and surface
low will approach the southern Oregon coast Saturday. This weather
disturbance will bring an increase in cloud cover through the day.
As the surface low moves up the coast through the day and then
pushes inland through the evening our chance of precipitation will
increase. Have increased chance of precipitation for most
locations as many locations should receive at least 0.01 of
precip as this feature moves through. Even normally dry locations
such as the basin and east slope of the Cascades valleys could see
rain given the decent southeast upslope flow ahead of the cold
front.

...Breezy to windy conditions expected Saturday Night and Sunday...

Winds  associated with the cold front will be quite strong.
Saturday evening southerly winds 10 to 20 mph will be common
across most of the Columbia Basin and into the Palouse and
Spokane/CDA areas. Those winds will increase through the overnight
hours and into Sunday morning to 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 or
45 mph. Right now the strongest winds look to stretch from the
Blue Mountains up through the Palouse. Winds will slowly decrease
through Sunday afternoon and into the evening hours as the surface
low weakens and continues to move east across southern Canada.

Sunday the chance of precipitation will decrease through the
evening hours. The exception to this will be the Cascade crest and
ID Panhandle where showers will likely continue. A flat ridge
moves into the Inland Northwest Monday ahead of the next
potentially big soaker. Chance of precip will increase through the
overnight hours and into Tuesday morning, especially along the
Cascade Mountains and nearby valleys as the next weather system
moves onto the west coast.

Temperatures will start out at or above average on Saturday and
then drop to near average readings by Sunday and then to slightly
below average readings by Monday. /Nisbet

Tuesday through Thursday: The models are depicting a shortwave
trough pushing through the region followed by a weak ridge
building into the region for this period. For Tuesday, widespread
rain is expected in the morning. Precip chances will decrease from
West to East as the period progresses into Wednesday leaving only
the Idaho Panhandle with high potential to receive rain. Model
agreement on Thursday is not high but they are indicating a Low
in the Gulf of Alaska beginning to press into the Pacific
Northwest and bringing some precip to the Cascades. Light winds
associated with this pattern has potential for morning fog int he
northern valleys. Temperatures will still be above normal with
highs in the mid 50s to low 60s and lows in the upper 30s to mid
40s. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at all forecast sites through
00z although cigs will steadily lower through the day ahead of
incoming warm front. The front will develop a east-west band of
rain which will hit LWS MWH EAT and PUW around 00z and push into
the GEG SFF COE area around 02z. Once the rain begins...we expect
to see some clouds develop below 030 but we don`t expect prevalent cigs
at MVFR levels. The one exception will be at EAT due to proximity
to Cascades combined with upslope flow. The warm front will
deliver about 6 hrs of precipitation to most sites (persisting a
little longer at EAT) with improving conditions after that. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  44  65  43  52  36 /   0  60  30  80  30  10
Coeur d`Alene  55  42  65  42  51  34 /  10  50  30  90  30  20
Pullman        55  45  68  42  49  38 /  30  50  20  80  30  20
Lewiston       59  44  72  47  56  41 /  40  50  10  60  20  20
Colville       54  42  62  45  52  35 /  10  70  30  80  50  20
Sandpoint      53  40  61  42  48  34 /  10  70  30  90  50  30
Kellogg        52  41  64  40  45  34 /  10  60  20  90  40  30
Moses Lake     57  45  60  45  59  37 /  10  80  20  30  10  10
Wenatchee      57  44  57  43  55  38 /  10  80  60  40  10  10
Omak           56  42  55  43  54  35 /  10  90  50  50  30  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&





000
FXUS66 KSEW 241025
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY
AS A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME
RAIN BACK TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING RAIN AND LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER WET AND BREEZY AT TIMES
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM....LATEST RADAR AND OBS INDICATE SHOWERS ARE PERSISTING
ACROSS WRN WA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH
A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER THE AREA. LIGHTNING DETECTION IS STILL
PICKING UP A FEW STRIKES NEAR THE W ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT...BUT
NOTHING OVER THE INTERIOR. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE WANING COMPARED TO
LAST EVENING AND MODELS SHOW THIS DECREASING TREND TO CONTINUE.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS STILL ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER
DEVELOPING SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PAC NW.

THE LATEST 00Z/06Z MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SEEN ON WV IMAGERY TRACKING
EWD NEAR 40 N INSIDE 140 W. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIVING SWD OVER THE
PACIFIC IS IN THE PROCESS OF PHASING WITH SRN STREAM MOISTURE.
CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS WITH THE
DEEPENING LOW APPROACHING 40 N/130 W TONIGHT. HOW DEEP THE LOW
BECOMES AND EXACTLY HOW IT CONSOLIDATES AND TRACKS TO THE N/NE WILL
DETERMINE HOW WINDY WE GET HERE IN PARTS OF WRN WA.

MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A WARM FRONT WILL REACH SRN PORTIONS OF WRN WA
THIS EVENING WITH A TRIPLE POINT FEATURE JUST OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE COAST WILL CREATE STRONG CROSS CASCADE GRADIENTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG E WINDS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS EXTENDING AS FAR W
AS THE I405/BELLEVUE VICINITY. THE 00Z WRFGFS AND 00Z/06Z NAM12
SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE WIND TO SOME DEGREE BUT STILL SHOW
SOME 25-30 KT WIND MAXIMUMS ALONG THE FOOTHILL WHICH BRIEFLY EXTEND
TO I405 AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. CROSS SECTION DISPLAYS ON THE
WRFGFS/NAM12 BOTH SHOW SOME WEAK FLOW REVERSAL AT 700 MB AND 30-40
KT JUST OFF THE SURFACE E OF LAKE WASHINGTON. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR AREAS E OF LAKE WASHINGTON INCLUDING BELLEVUE AND
VICINITY FOR GUSTS 45-50 MPH...STRONGEST CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS.
THE ADVISORY WILL RUN THROUGH 18Z FOR THE FOOTHILLS BUT END SOONER
AT 12Z FOR THE BELLEVUE ZONE SINCE STRONGER WINDS THERE WILL BE
BRIEF.

LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT OFFSHORE WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY OUTRUN THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW FEATURE OFF NRN CA/OREGON. VIRTUALLY ALL THE MODELS WANT
TO CONSOLIDATE THE LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX AS IT LIFTS N-NE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO BE FASTER GIVING THE SYSTEM LESS
TIME TO PHASE WITH THE NRN STREAM TROUGH. THIS RESULTS IN A
STRETCHED OUT SURFACE LOW FEATURE WITH THE BULK OF ENERGY GOING
INLAND S OF OUR AREA. OTHER MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW WHICH ALLOWS FOR BETTER CONSOLIDATION AS IT
APPROACHES THE N OREGON/S WA COASTS. 00Z GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUNS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT ON SLOWLY FILLING THE LOW AND TRACKING IT NE THROUGH
SRN WA NEAR PUGET SOUND. USUALLY THE ECMWF IS THE FAVORED MODEL AS
IT TENDS TO HANDLE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE THE BEST. THIS
IS HAPPENS TO BE THE STRONGEST OF THE MODELS WHICH STILL SHOWS
DECENT PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE LOW AND A +12-13 MB KBLI-KPDX
GRADIENT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR PUGET SOUND.
AS USUAL...THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS AND THE MESO MODELS FROM THE
NAM12 TO THE WRFGFS DO NOT CLEARLY SUPPORT THE STRONGER ECMWF
SOLUTION. TAKING EVERYTHING INTO ACCOUNT...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS IN WRN WA HAS DECREASED. THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WHICH
WAS TONED DOWN LAST EVENING WILL BE CONTINUED WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF TO THE NE ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER IN THE MID 50S
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL FEEL RATHER CHILLY GIVEN THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...A LULL OR BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY
BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING. THE 00Z MODELS HAVE
TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH CONTAINS
THE REMNANTS OF AN EX-TROPICAL SYSTEM. FORTUNATELY IT WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT RAIN AMOUNTS. THERE WILL BE A LOT
OF GRADIENT WITH THIS LOW AND LOCATIONS PRONE TO SE WIND...LIKE
WHIDBEY ISLAND NWD...COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS ON TUESDAY. MODELS
WEAKEN THE LOW AS IT CROSSES NEAR OR JUST N OF WA SO STRONG WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER OTHER INLAND AREAS AT THIS POINT.

YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS SET TO ARRIVE MID WEEK. MODELS
DIVERGE ON THE LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION BY THURSDAY SO IT IS
DIFFICULT TO TELL WHETHER ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR AREA.
THE ECMWF SHIFTS THE TROUGH FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE KEEPING A TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW.  MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS BUT
AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT. THE SKOKOMISH RIVER
IN MASON COUNTY FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING AND FLOODING IS
NO LONGER EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. AIR MASS
STABLE. WARM FRONT MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT.

CEILINGS STILL IN THE 4000 TO 6000 FOOT RANGE OVER THE INTERIOR IN
THE WAKE OF A BAND OF SHOWERS THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
CEILINGS ALONG THE COAST AOA 10000 FEET. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE OVER
THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING TO AOA 10000 FEET. WARM FRONT MOVING UP
FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING 00Z-06Z TO THE 3500 TO
5000 FOOT RANGE WITH RAIN BEGINNING AT THAT TIME AS WELL.

KSEA...CEILINGS 4000 TO 6000 FEET IMPROVE TO AOA 10000 FEET BY 16Z.
CEILINGS LOWERING AROUND 03Z TONIGHT BACK DOWN TO NEAR 4000 FEET
WITH RAIN. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 4 TO 8 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHEAST LATER
THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY 8 TO 12 KNOTS AFTER 03Z WITH
POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY WITH HIGHER PRESSURE EAST OF
THE CASCADES AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH
THE WATERS TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE OREGON
WATERS ON SATURDAY REACHING THE WESTERN WASHINGTON INTERIOR LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS THE
LOW APPROACHES. LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS HAVE WEAKENED THE SURFACE
LOW AS IT REACHES WESTERN WASHINGTON SO HAVE KEPT WINDS BELOW GALE.
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE INLAND WATERS BEHIND THE LOW SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS
SUNDAY AND REMAINING INTO MONDAY. FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING
985 MB LOW APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL BRING AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS BACK TO A PORTION OF THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH
     SATURDAY MORNING.
     WIND ADVISORY FOR BELLEVUE AND VICINITY TONIGHT.

PZ...NONE.



&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KPQR 241002
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
302 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN INTO SW OREGON
THIS MORNING AND ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS
THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY EASED THIS MORNING BUT STRATIFORM RAIN WILL
RETURN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO INDUCE OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE. THE NORTH
ZONES SHOULD BE DRY FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

A LOW WELL OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. ALTHOUGH MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW...AND THE GFS HAS CONSOLIDATED THE SYSTEM INTO ONE
SINGLE LOW INSTEAD OF AN ELONGATED TWO...THERE ARE STILL
DISCREPANCIES ON THE STRENGTH. RAIN IS CERTAIN BASED ON THE TRACK BUT
WINDS WILL DEPEND VERY MUCH ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW SO CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER IN THAT REGARD WITH THE SYSTEM. THE NAM AND ECM SHOW
SLIGHTLY SW FLOW THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING WHICH
WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER WINDS THAN THE SLIGHTLY SE FLOW
DEPICTED BY THE GFS. FAVORED THE NAM/ECM SOLUTION WITH COASTAL WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ON THE IMMEDIATE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST...AND VALLEY WIND GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 45 MPH
SATURDAY EVENING BUT THESE NUMBERS MAY CHANGE AS THE MODELS HOPEFULLY
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY...SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHORT-WAVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO NEAR CASCADE PASS LEVELS SUNDAY. WEAK RIDGING MOVES
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCES
DWINDLING BRIEFLY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. BOWEN/TJ

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM...INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANA...WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING CONTINUED RAIN AND
WINDS ALONG THE COAST. SHORTWAVES WILL SUPPORT RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BEGINNING AROUND THURSDAY THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
TO THE EXTENT THAT CLIMO SEEMS THE BEST BET AT THIS POINT FOR THE
REMAINING 24 HRS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  BOWEN/27

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THIS MORNING...MAY BE A FEW SPOTS OF MVFR
CIGS. AFTER 18Z A WARM FRONT LIFTING N WILL SPREAD SOME RAIN N INTO
NW OREGON...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR...WITH
RAIN DECREASING AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO WA.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z...BEFORE A
MORE GENERAL RAIN DEVELOPS. ALTHOUGH UNLIKELY...THERE IS ABOUT A 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SEEING A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BEFORE 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS TODAY AS LIGHT S WINDS BACK
AROUND TO THE E LATE IN THE DAY. A LOW PRES SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN TO AROUND 995 MB AND APPROACH FROM THE SW TONIGHT...THEN MOVE
N THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS SAT BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER WESTERN
WA LATE SAT. THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW ARE STILL IN
QUESTION...BUT OVERALL EXPECTATION IS FOR SOUTHERLY GALES WITH THIS
LOW SAT. THE GALES WILL BRING STEEP SEAS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS EXPECTED
TO PEAK AROUND 17 TO 20 FT LATE SAT...BUT AGAIN...THIS WILL DEPEND
ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW.

ONCE THE LOW MOVES INLAND MON EVENING...WINDS WILL TURN TO BACK
TO THE W AND DECREASE ALONG WITH SEAS SUBSIDING. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE W EARLY NEXT WEEK...AROUND MON NIGHT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     7 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 241002
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
302 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN INTO SW OREGON
THIS MORNING AND ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS
THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY EASED THIS MORNING BUT STRATIFORM RAIN WILL
RETURN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO INDUCE OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE. THE NORTH
ZONES SHOULD BE DRY FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

A LOW WELL OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. ALTHOUGH MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW...AND THE GFS HAS CONSOLIDATED THE SYSTEM INTO ONE
SINGLE LOW INSTEAD OF AN ELONGATED TWO...THERE ARE STILL
DISCREPANCIES ON THE STRENGTH. RAIN IS CERTAIN BASED ON THE TRACK BUT
WINDS WILL DEPEND VERY MUCH ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW SO CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER IN THAT REGARD WITH THE SYSTEM. THE NAM AND ECM SHOW
SLIGHTLY SW FLOW THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING WHICH
WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER WINDS THAN THE SLIGHTLY SE FLOW
DEPICTED BY THE GFS. FAVORED THE NAM/ECM SOLUTION WITH COASTAL WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ON THE IMMEDIATE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST...AND VALLEY WIND GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 45 MPH
SATURDAY EVENING BUT THESE NUMBERS MAY CHANGE AS THE MODELS HOPEFULLY
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY...SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHORT-WAVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO NEAR CASCADE PASS LEVELS SUNDAY. WEAK RIDGING MOVES
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCES
DWINDLING BRIEFLY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. BOWEN/TJ

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM...INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANA...WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING CONTINUED RAIN AND
WINDS ALONG THE COAST. SHORTWAVES WILL SUPPORT RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BEGINNING AROUND THURSDAY THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
TO THE EXTENT THAT CLIMO SEEMS THE BEST BET AT THIS POINT FOR THE
REMAINING 24 HRS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  BOWEN/27

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THIS MORNING...MAY BE A FEW SPOTS OF MVFR
CIGS. AFTER 18Z A WARM FRONT LIFTING N WILL SPREAD SOME RAIN N INTO
NW OREGON...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR...WITH
RAIN DECREASING AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO WA.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z...BEFORE A
MORE GENERAL RAIN DEVELOPS. ALTHOUGH UNLIKELY...THERE IS ABOUT A 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SEEING A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BEFORE 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS TODAY AS LIGHT S WINDS BACK
AROUND TO THE E LATE IN THE DAY. A LOW PRES SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN TO AROUND 995 MB AND APPROACH FROM THE SW TONIGHT...THEN MOVE
N THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS SAT BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER WESTERN
WA LATE SAT. THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW ARE STILL IN
QUESTION...BUT OVERALL EXPECTATION IS FOR SOUTHERLY GALES WITH THIS
LOW SAT. THE GALES WILL BRING STEEP SEAS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS EXPECTED
TO PEAK AROUND 17 TO 20 FT LATE SAT...BUT AGAIN...THIS WILL DEPEND
ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW.

ONCE THE LOW MOVES INLAND MON EVENING...WINDS WILL TURN TO BACK
TO THE W AND DECREASE ALONG WITH SEAS SUBSIDING. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE W EARLY NEXT WEEK...AROUND MON NIGHT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     7 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 240950
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
250 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy and unsettled conditions will continue for the rest
of today but be on the decrease tonight and into tomorrow. This is
only temporary as rain is expected to return Friday night and
Saturday. A strong cold front passage Saturday Night and Sunday
will produce very windy conditions with gusts in excess of 40 mph.
The pattern will continue to be active into early next week. This
includes the potential for widespread rain into early next week as
moisture associated with former typhoons makes its way toward the
Pacific Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tonight...Looks like this period will see a little
break in the action in regards to our recent string of wet weather.
The anomalously moist atmospheric river has temporarily dipped
south of our forecast area. As of 2am...about the only weather
action was a blanket of high level moisture covering most of the
region. This cloud cover was associated with the 130-150kt upper
level jet. This dry respite will gradually come to an end this
morning in response to deep upstream trough centered near
35n/139w. Models in good agreement that as this trough moves
closer to the coast...the atmospheric river will buckle northward
as a warm front and push steadily across the Oregon/Washington
border. This transition will be accompanied by backing mid-level
flow (southerly winds)...leading toward a significant increase in
isentropic ascent and moisture advection. This will result in an
increasing chance of precipitation. By midday most of the
precipitation will be just south of our forecast area...however
some light rain could creep into the Blue Mountains and Camas
Prairie. By the latter half of the day...there is good model
agreement that the northern edge of the preciptiation will lie
approximately from Pullman to Moses Lake.

The front will continue to surge northward overnight...reaching
the Canadian Border well after midnight. Based on the good
moisture availability and moderate isentropic ascent...most areas
will receive some precipitation. Confidence is highest however
near the Cascades...as the 850-700 mb layer takes on a well
defined southeast-east wind regime. This will lead to good
orographic ascent which will only be bolstered by strong
divergence aloft. Categorical pops will be justified for locations
west of a Republic to Wenatchee line...and QPF totals will likely
range from a quarter to half inch. Snow levels will likely be
fairly high...ranging from 5.5-6k feet. This should not pose any
travel problems...however some snow can be expected to fall late
tonight over the highest parts of the North Cascades Highway.
While the precipitation really gets going late tonight over
locations near the Canadian Border...it will begin to taper off
near the Oregon border as the dry slot move in behind the warm
front. fx

Saturday through Monday Night: An upper level trough and surface
low will approach the southern Oregon coast Saturday. This weather
disturbance will bring an increase in cloud cover through the day.
As the surface low moves up the coast through the day and then
pushes inland through the evening our chance of precipitation will
increase. Have increased chance of precipitation for most
locations as many locations should receive at least 0.01 of
precip as this feature moves through. Even normally dry locations
such as the basin and east slope of the Cascades valleys could see
rain given the decent southeast upslope flow ahead of the cold
front.

...Breezy to windy conditions expected Saturday Night and Sunday...

Winds  associated with the cold front will be quite strong.
Saturday evening southerly winds 10 to 20 mph will be common
across most of the Columbia Basin and into the Palouse and
Spokane/CDA areas. Those winds will increase through the overnight
hours and into Sunday morning to 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 or
45 mph. Right now the strongest winds look to stretch from the
Blue Mountains up through the Palouse. Winds will slowly decrease
through Sunday afternoon and into the evening hours as the surface
low weakens and continues to move east across southern Canada.

Sunday the chance of precipitation will decrease through the
evening hours. The exception to this will be the Cascade crest and
ID Panhandle where showers will likely continue. A flat ridge
moves into the Inland Northwest Monday ahead of the next
potentially big soaker. Chance of precip will increase through the
overnight hours and into Tuesday morning, especially along the
Cascade Mountains and nearby valleys as the next weather system
moves onto the west coast.

Temperatures will start out at or above average on Saturday and
then drop to near average readings by Sunday and then to slightly
below average readings by Monday. /Nisbet

Tuesday through Thursday: The models are depicting a shortwave
trough pushing through the region followed by a weak ridge
building into the region for this period. For Tuesday, widespread
rain is expected in the morning. Precip chances will decrease from
West to East as the period progresses into Wednesday leaving only
the Idaho Panhandle with high potential to receive rain. Model
agreement on Thursday is not high but they are indicating a Low
in the Gulf of Alaska beginning to press into the Pacific
Northwest and bringing some precip to the Cascades. Light winds
associated with this pattern has potential for morning fog int he
northern valleys. Temperatures will still be above normal with
highs in the mid 50s to low 60s and lows in the upper 30s to mid
40s. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The stalled frontal band has moved southeast, ending
precipitation across southeast WA and the Idaho panhandle.
Abundant low level moisture available from recent rainfall will
promote formation of fog and low clouds overnight and into Friday
morning. Models show this front will lift back north from Oregon
and push into southern WA and the central panhandle of Idaho as a
wet warm front Friday afternoon/evening. /EK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  44  65  43  52  36 /   0  60  30  80  30  10
Coeur d`Alene  55  42  65  42  51  34 /  10  50  30  90  30  20
Pullman        55  45  68  42  49  38 /  30  50  20  80  30  20
Lewiston       59  44  72  47  56  41 /  40  50  10  60  20  20
Colville       54  42  62  45  52  35 /  10  70  30  80  50  20
Sandpoint      53  40  61  42  48  34 /  10  70  30  90  50  30
Kellogg        52  41  64  40  45  34 /  10  60  20  90  40  30
Moses Lake     57  45  60  45  59  37 /  10  80  20  30  10  10
Wenatchee      57  44  57  43  55  38 /  10  80  60  40  10  10
Omak           56  42  55  43  54  35 /  10  90  50  50  30  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&





000
FXUS66 KOTX 240543
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1043 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy and unsettled conditions will continue for the rest
of today but be on the decrease tonight and into tomorrow. This is
only temporary as rain is expected to return Friday night and
Saturday. A strong cold front passage Saturday Night and Sunday
will produce very windy conditions with gusts in excess of 40 mph.
The pattern will continue to be active into early next week. This
includes the potential for widespread rain into early next week as
moisture associated with former typhoons makes its way toward the
Pacific Northwest.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
The broad frontal band of precipitation that was draped across the
southeast zones this evening has finally moved off to the south
and east. A few showers continue to pop up over the northern
panhandle of Idaho in the unstable post frontal air mass. Return
of westerly flow will keep a few showers over the Cascade crest
and the panhandle overnight but these will be hit or miss with
little additional rainfall accumulations. Ample low level moisture
will allow fog and low stratus to develop across the northeast
valleys and also in some of the Cascade gap valleys overnight.
This will keep min temperatures from bottoming out tonight. Those
areas that see some clearing could get rather chilly tonight as
winds have dropped off significantly. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The stalled frontal band has moved southeast, ending
precipitation across southeast WA and the Idaho panhandle.
Abundant low level moisture available from recent rainfall will
promote formation of fog and low clouds overnight and into Friday
morning. Models show this front will lift back north from Oregon
and push into southern WA and the central panhandle of Idaho as a
wet warm front Friday afternoon/evening. /EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        40  57  43  65  44  53 /  20  10  30  30  80  30
Coeur d`Alene  42  57  40  64  42  53 /  20  10  20  30  90  30
Pullman        43  59  45  69  44  52 /  20  10  40  20  80  30
Lewiston       48  64  46  72  48  58 /  20  20  30  10  60  20
Colville       37  59  41  63  44  53 /  20  10  40  30  80  50
Sandpoint      40  56  38  60  41  49 /  40  10  30  30  90  50
Kellogg        39  53  41  63  42  46 /  60  20  30  20  90  40
Moses Lake     41  59  44  62  46  60 /  10  10  60  20  30  10
Wenatchee      42  57  47  58  46  57 /  10  10  70  60  40  10
Omak           36  58  42  56  44  56 /  10  10  60  50  50  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 240503
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1000 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN BACK TO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER WET AND BREEZY AT TIMES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM....THAT LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS MOVING ONTO
THE SOUTH WA COAST AT 10PM IS HOLDING TOGETHER...SO IT WILL LIKELY
REACH THE CENTRAL AND THEN THE NORTH WA COAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...FORECASTS UPDATED FOR THAT. BUT FOR THE INTERIOR THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY AS
A LITTLE UPPER RIDGING AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL HAVE A WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM A DEEP LOW CENTER OFF
NRN CALIF LATE FRIDAY...ACROSS NW OREGON AND ALONG THE WA/ORE
BORDER. THE FRONT MOVES NORTH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE
INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND AND SW B.C. BY MIDDAY SAT. THE NAM SHOWS THAT
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA GETS STRETCHED OUT ALONG THE WA AND ORE
COASTAL WATERS BY THAT TIME AS PRECIP FILLS IN OVER MOST OF WRN WA.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE INTERIOR OF WRN WA SATURDAY EVENING
AND GIVE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS IN STRONG ONSHORE FLOW. SUNDAY LOOKS
LIKE A COOL DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A PSCZ...SHOWERS
LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND A SNOW LEVEL NEAR PASS LEVEL.

.LONG TERM...AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY...ANOTHER
LOW WILL MOVE INLAND OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND ON TUESDAY BRINGING WET
AND POSSIBLY BREEZY WEATHER TO THE AREA. WET AND LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS YET
MORE FEATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HYDROLOGICALLY
SIGNIFICANT. THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY FELL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT WEAKENING ON FRIDAY.
AIR MASS REMAINING UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT THEN STABILIZING FRIDAY
MORNING. WARM FRONT MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

CEILINGS AOA 10000 FEET. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE OVER THE NEXT
THREE HOURS AS ONE LAST BAND OF SHOWERS APPROACHING THE COAST AT 05Z
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CEILINGS LOWERING TO NEAR 4000 FEET IN THE
SHOWERS. BAND WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA BY 09Z. BETWEEN 10Z-16Z
ISOLATED VISIBILITIES 1-3SM WITH CEILINGS BELOW 500 FEET ALONG THE
I-5 CORRIDOR FROM ABOUT KOLM SOUTHWARD.

KSEA...BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH AROUND 06Z TO 09Z WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING TO NEAR 5000 FEET. OUTSIDE OF THAT WINDOW CEILINGS
AOA 10000 FEET. SOUTHERLY WINDS 4 TO 8 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHEAST
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THEN NORTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...THE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT
DUE TO FALLING PRES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ON FRIDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO A 992
MB LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SW. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO
996 MB AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WASHINGTON COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND THE COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW SATURDAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS...IF THE NE MOVING LOW MOVES INTO FAR
SW BRITISH COLUMBIA. IF IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN OREGON OR TRACKS
ACROSS FAR SW WASHINGTON...THE THREAT OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE
CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA. THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS MODEL
CONSENSUS. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN
     MASON COUNTY.

PZ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SATURDAY
     MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KSEW 240435
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN BACK TO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER WET AND BREEZY AT TIMES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL
BE A DRY DAY AS A LITTLE UPPER RIDGING AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL HAVE A WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM A
DEEP LOW CENTER OFF NRN CALIF LATE FRIDAY...ACROSS NW OREGON AND
ALONG THE WA/ORE BORDER. THE FRONT MOVES NORTH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SHOULD BE INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND AND SW B.C. BY MIDDAY SAT.
THE NAM SHOWS THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA GETS STRETCHED OUT ALONG
THE WA AND ORE COASTAL WATERS BY THAT TIME AS PRECIP FILLS IN OVER
MOST OF WRN WA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE INTERIOR OF WRN WA
SATURDAY EVENING AND GIVE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS IN STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A COOL DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A PSCZ...SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND A SNOW LEVEL
NEAR PASS LEVEL.

.LONG TERM...AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY...ANOTHER
LOW WILL MOVE INLAND OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND ON TUESDAY BRINGING WET
AND POSSIBLY BREEZY WEATHER TO THE AREA. WET AND LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS YET
MORE FEATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HYDROLOGICALLY
SIGNIFICANT. THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY FELL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT WEAKENING ON FRIDAY.
AIR MASS REMAINING UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT THEN STABILIZING FRIDAY
MORNING. WARM FRONT MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

CEILINGS AOA 10000 FEET. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE OVER THE NEXT
THREE HOURS AS ONE LAST BAND OF SHOWERS APPROACHING THE COAST AT 05Z
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CEILINGS LOWERING TO NEAR 4000 FEET IN THE
SHOWERS. BAND WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA BY 09Z. BETWEEN 10Z-16Z
ISOLATED VISIBILITIES 1-3SM WITH CEILINGS BELOW 500 FEET ALONG THE
I-5 CORRIDOR FROM ABOUT KOLM SOUTHWARD.

KSEA...BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH AROUND 06Z TO 09Z WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING TO NEAR 5000 FEET. OUTSIDE OF THAT WINDOW CEILINGS
AOA 10000 FEET. SOUTHERLY WINDS 4 TO 8 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHEAST
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THEN NORTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...THE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT
DUE TO FALLING PRES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ON FRIDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO A 992
MB LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SW. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO
996 MB AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WASHINGTON COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND THE COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW SATURDAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS...IF THE NE MOVING LOW MOVES INTO FAR
SW BRITISH COLUMBIA. IF IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN OREGON OR TRACKS
ACROSS FAR SW WASHINGTON...THE THREAT OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE
CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA. THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS MODEL
CONSENSUS. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN
     MASON COUNTY.

PZ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SATURDAY
     MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KPQR 240339
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
839 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE AIR MASS
SLOWLY STABILIZES. A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN INTO SW OREGON
FRIDAY MORNING AND ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS
THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&
.UPDATE...A NWS STORM SURVEY TEAM DETERMINED THAT THE TORNADO THAT
TOUCHED DOWN IN LONGVIEW WA THIS AFTERNOON WAS AN EF-1. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SHOWERS THAT SHOWERS HAVE EASED SINCE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE
STILL FAIRLY PERSISTENT OVER SW WASHINGTON. THERE HAS BEEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE THAT ARE JUST ENTERING
THE NORTHERN OREGON COASTAL WATERS AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WATERS AND SW WA COAST FOR THIS EVENING. THE
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT IN MOST AREAS...AND REMAIN ON THE DRY
SIDE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE SW WA COAST
AND THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES. RAIN WILL RETURN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
LATE FRIDAY MORNING TO THE AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE
AREA.

FROM PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO SW
OREGON FRI MORNING AND THEN LIFTS NORTH FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL ALSO INDUCE OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMBIA
GORGE AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE. THE NORTH ZONES COULD BE DRY
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF FRI AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM
FRONT. THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT FRI INTO SAT MORNING.

MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR 12Z SAT CREATE A HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW STRENGTH...TRACK AND TIMING. THE GFS IS THE
MOST CONSOLIDATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW 12Z SAT...WHILE THE ECMWF AND
NAM HAVE A MORE ELONGATED LOW WITH MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS. THE LATEST
GFS IS NOW THE SLOWEST WITH THE LOW...WITH A 990 MB CENTER NEAR
NEWPORT 18Z SAT. THE ECWMF AND NAM HAVE THE MAIN LOW CENTER NEAR THE
FAR N OREGON OR S WA COAST. THE WRF-GFS VALID 18Z SAT HAS A SMALL
CORE OF 60-70 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG THE S PART OF THE CENTRAL
COAST...BUT BY 21Z WIND GUST SPEEDS FALL OFF TO 40-50 KT. IT ALSO
SHOWS A SMALL CORE OF 40-50 KT GUSTS IN THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY
AT 21Z.

DESPITE ALL OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THERE IS A HIGHER
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE REGARDING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY SAT AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT GUSTS TO AT
LEAST 40 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED AS A HEADS UP TO
THIS POSSIBILITY. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AND
MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OVER THE AREA
TODAY...SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHORT-WAVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO NEAR CASCADE PASS LEVELS SUNDAY. TJ/WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STILL AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER A BRIEF DRYING
PERIOD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY...THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANA...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS
NEXT THURSDAY. ALL IN ALL...EXPECT WET AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS AS THESE FRONTS MOVE THROUGH. /27
&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THIS EVENING. THE LOWER AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST AND
WITH ENOUGH CLOUD BREAKS THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE
THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER TO PREVENT
WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS OR FOG FROM DEVELOPING. NEXT FRONT MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRI AFTERNOON SPREADING RAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH 12Z WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS FROM 12Z-17Z FRI.

&&

.MARINE...BRIEF BREAK IN WINDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS ADVERTISING OFFSHORE FLOW
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING THE A QUICK SWITCH TO SOUTHERLIES OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. AT SOME POINT ON SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE GALE
FORCE WINDS AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SUGGEST
LANDFALL WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE NORTH OREGON COAST AND
VANCOUVER ISLAND. IT SEEMS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE IS MOST LIKELY.
A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS. REGARDLESS OF THE TRACKS PROVIDED BY VARIOUS
MODELS...GALE FORCE WINDS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE
WATERS LATE SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LOW END STORM FORCE GUSTS
OF 50 KT IF THE STRONGER AND MORE SOUTHERN TRACK PANS OUT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THIS POINT BUT ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE THE GALE WATCH FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE REFINED AS
MODELS CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. SEAS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BECOME
STEEP AND WIND DOMINATED...POSSIBLY REACHING UPWARDS OF 20 FT LATE
SATURDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THE DETAILS AT
THIS POINT IN TIME REMAIN UNCERTAIN. MODELS DO SUGGEST SEAS WILL
RELAX IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. /NEUMAN/MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     3 AM TO 7 AM PDT FRIDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     3 PM TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 240339
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
839 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE AIR MASS
SLOWLY STABILIZES. A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN INTO SW OREGON
FRIDAY MORNING AND ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS
THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&
.UPDATE...A NWS STORM SURVEY TEAM DETERMINED THAT THE TORNADO THAT
TOUCHED DOWN IN LONGVIEW WA THIS AFTERNOON WAS AN EF-1. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SHOWERS THAT SHOWERS HAVE EASED SINCE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE
STILL FAIRLY PERSISTENT OVER SW WASHINGTON. THERE HAS BEEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE THAT ARE JUST ENTERING
THE NORTHERN OREGON COASTAL WATERS AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WATERS AND SW WA COAST FOR THIS EVENING. THE
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT IN MOST AREAS...AND REMAIN ON THE DRY
SIDE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE SW WA COAST
AND THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES. RAIN WILL RETURN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
LATE FRIDAY MORNING TO THE AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE
AREA.

FROM PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO SW
OREGON FRI MORNING AND THEN LIFTS NORTH FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL ALSO INDUCE OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMBIA
GORGE AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE. THE NORTH ZONES COULD BE DRY
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF FRI AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM
FRONT. THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT FRI INTO SAT MORNING.

MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR 12Z SAT CREATE A HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW STRENGTH...TRACK AND TIMING. THE GFS IS THE
MOST CONSOLIDATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW 12Z SAT...WHILE THE ECMWF AND
NAM HAVE A MORE ELONGATED LOW WITH MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS. THE LATEST
GFS IS NOW THE SLOWEST WITH THE LOW...WITH A 990 MB CENTER NEAR
NEWPORT 18Z SAT. THE ECWMF AND NAM HAVE THE MAIN LOW CENTER NEAR THE
FAR N OREGON OR S WA COAST. THE WRF-GFS VALID 18Z SAT HAS A SMALL
CORE OF 60-70 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG THE S PART OF THE CENTRAL
COAST...BUT BY 21Z WIND GUST SPEEDS FALL OFF TO 40-50 KT. IT ALSO
SHOWS A SMALL CORE OF 40-50 KT GUSTS IN THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY
AT 21Z.

DESPITE ALL OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THERE IS A HIGHER
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE REGARDING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY SAT AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT GUSTS TO AT
LEAST 40 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED AS A HEADS UP TO
THIS POSSIBILITY. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AND
MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OVER THE AREA
TODAY...SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHORT-WAVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO NEAR CASCADE PASS LEVELS SUNDAY. TJ/WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STILL AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER A BRIEF DRYING
PERIOD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY...THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANA...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS
NEXT THURSDAY. ALL IN ALL...EXPECT WET AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS AS THESE FRONTS MOVE THROUGH. /27
&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THIS EVENING. THE LOWER AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST AND
WITH ENOUGH CLOUD BREAKS THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE
THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER TO PREVENT
WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS OR FOG FROM DEVELOPING. NEXT FRONT MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRI AFTERNOON SPREADING RAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH 12Z WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS FROM 12Z-17Z FRI.

&&

.MARINE...BRIEF BREAK IN WINDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS ADVERTISING OFFSHORE FLOW
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING THE A QUICK SWITCH TO SOUTHERLIES OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. AT SOME POINT ON SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE GALE
FORCE WINDS AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SUGGEST
LANDFALL WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE NORTH OREGON COAST AND
VANCOUVER ISLAND. IT SEEMS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE IS MOST LIKELY.
A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS. REGARDLESS OF THE TRACKS PROVIDED BY VARIOUS
MODELS...GALE FORCE WINDS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE
WATERS LATE SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LOW END STORM FORCE GUSTS
OF 50 KT IF THE STRONGER AND MORE SOUTHERN TRACK PANS OUT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THIS POINT BUT ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE THE GALE WATCH FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE REFINED AS
MODELS CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. SEAS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BECOME
STEEP AND WIND DOMINATED...POSSIBLY REACHING UPWARDS OF 20 FT LATE
SATURDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THE DETAILS AT
THIS POINT IN TIME REMAIN UNCERTAIN. MODELS DO SUGGEST SEAS WILL
RELAX IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. /NEUMAN/MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     3 AM TO 7 AM PDT FRIDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     3 PM TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 232344
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
444 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy and unsettled conditions will continue for the rest
of today but be on the decrease tonight and into tomorrow. This is
only temporary as rain is expected to return Friday night and
Saturday. A strong cold front passage Saturday Night and Sunday
will produce very windy conditions with gusts in excess of 40 mph.
The pattern will continue to be active into early next week. This
includes the potential for widespread rain into early next week as
moisture associated with former typhoons makes its way toward the
Pacific Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Friday...Expectation for decreasing clouds and pops
overnight as the northern end of the large baroclinic band
extending southwest out into the East Pacific continues to pass
through the forecast area as a wet cold front. The cool
conditionally unstable airmass on the north side of this front
does have numerous small mesoscale shortwaves rotating in it close
to the baroclinic band, and with enough lingering moisture from
recent rainfall a small mention of thunderstorms in proximity to
the exiting frontal zone remain into the early evening hours. The
band continues to work its way to the south and stalls somewhere
in Oregon and Central Idaho which is far enough to the south to
leave a relatively dry forecast for Friday with some mention of
fog/stratus for the early morning hours. The front will come back
up again as a warm front of sorts later on Friday. Due to the
dynamic nature of the forecast and expectation cloud cover will
work to moderate temperatures forecast temperatures remain on the
warm side of what would be considered normal for this time of
year. /Pelatti

Friday night through Sunday night...Quite the active weather pattern
will be coming up through this period of the forecast. And for an
active pattern the models are in pretty good agreement. A warm
front will move back north through the forecast area ahead of an
upstream upper level low. This will bring our first shot of of
precipitation to the area. A cold front will follow Saturday
night with the upper trough lingering over the Inland Northwest
through Sunday night. This will allow the precipitation to become
showery. Also expect decreasing snow levels and windy conditions
Saturday night and Sunday.

*Precipitation: Yes, and quite a bit. The warm front will tap into the
 next atmospheric river...with PWATs rising to between .70 to .80
 which is right around 200 percent of normal. Wet indeed.
 Isentropic up-glide is fairly vigorous and with southeast-south
 low to mid level flow the Cascades east to the western basin
 should receive a pretty good shot of measurable precipitation.
 The warm front will get pushed east early Saturday as the flow
 becomes south-southwesterly. This will shift the focus across the
 northern mountains and finally the Idaho Panhandle Saturday
 afternoon. The cold front will follow Saturday evening. Ample
 showers will continue near the Cascade crest...the northern
 mountains and the Idaho Panhandle through Sunday night, but the
 lower east slopes...Columbia basin and the Palouse will see a
 decrease in the showers by Sunday morning. QPF totals through
 Sunday evening will be between one half and one inch in the
 Cascades. From one quarter to one half in the northern mountains
 and the Idaho Panhandle, and from several hundredths to around
 .20 in the Basin, Palouse and the Spokane/Coeur D`Alene areas.
 Snow levels will start out from 5k feet across the northwest to
 over 7k feet across the southeast and rise 1500-2000 feet through
 the night. So precipitation as mainly rain with some high level
 snow. The snow levels will drop behind the front to below 5k
 feet, but by this time the precipitation should be on the
 decrease. Still several inches of snow will be possible for the
 higher terrain over the Cascades and a couple of inches of snow
 for the Panhandle mountains Saturday night and Sunday. Small
 stream and rivers will have to be monitored for rises...but right
 now the thinking is that there should be no flooding.

*Winds: East to southeast winds Friday and Saturday will switch to the
 southwest ahead of the cold front late Saturday afternoon, then
 increase Saturday night and remain windy/gusty Sunday. Model
 guidance is indicating about 3-6 hour time frame of peak winds
 between 06-12z Sunday. Sustained winds of 25 mph to 30 mph with
 gusts 25 to 40 mph will be common for the ridges...The deep
 basin...The west Plains...but the models focus the strongest
 winds across the Palouse and the lower slopes of the blues where
 sustained winds of 30 to 35 mph or higher with gusts 40 to 50 mph
 will be possible. Winds will decrease by morning but expect a
 windy day on Sunday. This will have to be monitored closely over
 the next 48-72 hours to pin point where the potential problem
 areas may be. No highlights are expected with this forecast
 package.

*Temps: Temperatures will increase on Saturday with the strong
 warm advection associated with the warm front with highs 8-12
 degrees above normal. The temps will then cool back down into the
 50s on Sunday behind the cold front. /Tobin

Monday through Thursday: An active weather pattern continues,
with temperatures hovering around average. The remnants of
Tropical Storm Ana come into the Pacific Northwest early in the
week. This is followed by the approach and possible passage of
additional systems through the week. However by middle to late
week model consistency degrades. Some runs are more eager to bring
systems inland and keep the region wet; other runs hold them
offshore and keep the region drier.

First on Monday a weak shortwave ridge nudges in from the west-
southwest, with a mid-level impulse/jet streak riding over the top
of it during the day. This keeps shower chances alive across
southeast WA to the central Panhandle and near the immediate
Cascade crest. Cooler air behind Sunday`s trough pushes snow level
down toward 4-4.5kft; this means possible snow at pass level. So
we will monitor this, (especially across the central Panhandle
including the I-90 corridor toward Lookout Pass) for some light
accumulations. Quiet weather is expected over the rest of the
region.

From Monday night through Tuesday night that next system comes
in. Ostensibly it comes with another modest moisture fetch which
includes the remains Tropical Storm Ana that are picked up by a
system currently to its northwest. Models are coming into better
agreement. Confidence is not as high as it could be given recent
model inconsistencies, but right now it looks like Tuesday could
be rather wet. Expect thickening clouds Monday night with the main
rain chances increasing over the Cascades. The precipitation
chances rise throughout the region Tuesday as the system moves
inland, with some moderate to locally rainfall possible in the
Cascades and northeast WA and north ID. Snow levels linger around
4-5kft in the morning, then rise to around 5-7kft in the afternoon
over a large part of the region. The main exception could be
across the Canadian border counties where they may linger around
that 4-5kft mark. So if precipitation starts early enough there
could be some snow accumulation around the passes, with the best
threat of it lingering through the day around Sherman Pass where
the warmer air may not reach. With this said, there is still a lot
of room for model changes but it is something to monitor.

By Tuesday night the precipitation focus gradually backs against
the Cascades and retreats to the eastern mountains as the front
passes and a shortwave ridge moves in. From Wednesday to Thursday
models now depict a shortwave ridge dominating the pattern.
However previous runs brought a trough inland. I have trended PoPs
downward away from the Cascades, but still kept some low chances
alive given uncertainty. But if trends hold the forecast may be
dried out completely away from the Cascades. I also increased the
potential for fog across the northern valleys and portions of the
Spokane/C`dA area for the night and early morning hours. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A slow-moving frontal zone currently draped across
extreme SE WA and central panhandle of ID will keep rain and some
low stratus clouds in the KLWS-KPUW area this evening.
Additionally the unstable air behind the front on the north side
of it may allow isolated thunderstorms to develop late this
afternoon into early evening. Gusty winds associated with the
front will diminish after sunset. Abundant low level moisture
available from recent rainfall will promote formation of fog and
low clouds overnight and into Friday morning as the front sags to
the south. Models show this same front will lift back north from
Oregon and push through the aviation area as a wet warm front
Friday evening/night. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        40  57  43  65  44  53 /  60  10  30  20  50  30
Coeur d`Alene  39  57  40  64  42  53 /  60  10  20  20  60  30
Pullman        42  59  45  69  44  52 /  60  10  40  10  50  30
Lewiston       46  64  46  72  48  58 /  60  20  30  10  40  20
Colville       36  59  41  63  44  53 /  50  10  40  30  70  50
Sandpoint      37  56  38  60  41  49 /  80  10  30  20  80  50
Kellogg        39  53  41  63  42  46 /  80  20  30  10  70  40
Moses Lake     40  59  44  62  46  60 /  10  10  60  20  30  10
Wenatchee      42  57  47  58  46  57 /  10  10  70  50  40  10
Omak           36  58  42  56  44  56 /  10  10  60  50  50  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 232259 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
359 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

CORRECTED MINOR TYPO IN THE AVIATION SEGMENT.

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH THAT IS GIVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN BACK TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS
LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS MAINLY WET AND BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG WSW 140-150 KT JET AT 300 MB AND AN
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING IN ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW
WASHINGTON TODAY. THESE FEATURES HAVE GIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING WEAK ROTATION ON OUR RADARS. ONE
LIKELY SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED BY RADAR EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON IN
NORTHERN GRAYS HARBOR COUNTY. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT AND COME TO AN END EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM OF A DEVELOPING LOW NOW SEEN NEAR
38N 140W.

THE LOW NOW STARTING TO SHOW ITSELF WELL OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST IS DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO A COLD TROUGH THAT DROPPED DOWN
OUT OF THE BERING SEA AS IT PHASED WITH WARMTH AND MOISTURE
STREAMING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A SUBTROPICAL FEATURE OUT OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL PACIFIC. 18Z AND 12Z MODELS ARE A LITTLE WEAKER THAN
SOLUTIONS FROM LAST NIGHT...BUT THEY REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING
THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT AT AROUND 990 MB OFF THE OREGON COAST THEN
MOVING INLAND OVER SW WASHINGTON THEN INTO THE SEATTLE AREA SATURDAY
EVENING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INLAND.

AHEAD OF THE LOW...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD ON FRIDAY.
THEN FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OFFSHORE...A FRONTAL
INVERSION ALOFT LOWERS...AND FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AROUND 700
MB...WINDY CONDITIONS FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. THIS
IS BEST SHOWN BY THE NAM12.

WIND SPEEDS WITH AND BEHIND THE LOW LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REALLY DEPEND ON HOW DEEP THE LOW GETS...HOW
QUICKLY IT FILLS AS IT MOVES INLAND...AND ITS WIND FIELD STRUCTURE
AS IT MOVES INLAND. THE NAM12 AND ECMWF SHOW A SAGGY TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LOW THAT WOULD INHIBIT A PUNCH OF STRONG PRESSURE RISES
BEHIND THE LOW. AT THIS POINT...FORECASTS INDICATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH BEHIND THE LOW. A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED JUST AS A HEADS UP. IF LATER
SOLUTIONS BECOME DEEPER WITH THE LOW AGAIN...A HIGH WIND WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

POST FRONTAL SHOWERS IN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AND
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY...ANOTHER
LOW WILL MOVE INLAND OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND ON TUESDAY BRINGING WET
AND POSSIBLY BREEZY WEATHER TO THE AREA. WET AND LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS YET
MORE FEATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HYDROLOGICALLY
SIGNIFICANT.

THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...IT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS
EVENING. REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT BULLETIN FOR THE MOST
UP TO DATE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
SLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE AIR MASS WAS UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE AREA. EXPECT THE
AIR MASS TO STABILIZE AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE THREAT OF TSTMS
ENDING.

MEANWHILE...THERE WILL BE AREAS OF CIGS IN THE 2-3K FT RANGE WITH
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS THRU THIS EVENING. LOCALIZED VSBYS OF 2-5SM /DUE
TO FOG/ AND CIGS AOB 1K FT ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG
THE I-5 CORRIDOR FROM ABOUT KOLM SWD.

KSEA...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF TSTMS OVER THE TERMINAL TIL ABOUT
0200 UTC. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE TSTMS WILL BE BRIEF GUSTS TO
NEAR 25 KNOTS...HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE TERMINAL...ALTHOUGH A HEAVY SHOWER
THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE THE VSBY TO NEAR 2SM AND CIGS TO
NEAR 3K FT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT DUE TO
FALLING PRES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON
FRI AND WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO A 990 MB LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE SW. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO 993 MB AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE WASHINGTON COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND THE COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT.

THERE CONTINUED TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING...
TRACK...AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS...IF
THE NE MOVING LOW MOVES INTO FAR SW BRITISH COLUMBIA. IF IT MOVES
INTO NORTHERN OREGON OR TRACKS ACROSS FAR SW WASHINGTON...THE THREAT
OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA. THE FORECAST
REFLECTS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN
     MASON COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
     COASTAL WATERS...CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...NORTHERN
     INLAND WATERS...AND PUGET SOUND TIL 6 PM PDT TODAY.

     GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SATURDAY
     MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 232256
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
355 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH THAT IS GIVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN BACK TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS
LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS MAINLY WET AND BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG WSW 140-150 KT JET AT 300 MB AND AN
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING IN ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW
WASHINGTON TODAY. THESE FEATURES HAVE GIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING WEAK ROTATION ON OUR RADARS. ONE
LIKELY SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED BY RADAR EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON IN
NORTHERN GRAYS HARBOR COUNTY. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT AND COME TO AN END EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM OF A DEVELOPING LOW NOW SEEN NEAR
38N 140W.

THE LOW NOW STARTING TO SHOW ITSELF WELL OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST IS DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO A COLD TROUGH THAT DROPPED DOWN
OUT OF THE BERING SEA AS IT PHASED WITH WARMTH AND MOISTURE
STREAMING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A SUBTROPICAL FEATURE OUT OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL PACIFIC. 18Z AND 12Z MODELS ARE A LITTLE WEAKER THAN
SOLUTIONS FROM LAST NIGHT...BUT THEY REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING
THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT AT AROUND 990 MB OFF THE OREGON COAST THEN
MOVING INLAND OVER SW WASHINGTON THEN INTO THE SEATTLE AREA SATURDAY
EVENING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INLAND.

AHEAD OF THE LOW...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD ON FRIDAY.
THEN FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OFFSHORE...A FRONTAL
INVERSION ALOFT LOWERS...AND FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AROUND 700
MB...WINDY CONDITIONS FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. THIS
IS BEST SHOWN BY THE NAM12.

WIND SPEEDS WITH AND BEHIND THE LOW LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REALLY DEPEND ON HOW DEEP THE LOW GETS...HOW
QUICKLY IT FILLS AS IT MOVES INLAND...AND ITS WIND FIELD STRUCTURE
AS IT MOVES INLAND. THE NAM12 AND ECMWF SHOW A SAGGY TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LOW THAT WOULD INHIBIT A PUNCH OF STRONG PRESSURE RISES
BEHIND THE LOW. AT THIS POINT...FORECASTS INDICATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH BEHIND THE LOW. A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED JUST AS A HEADS UP. IF LATER
SOLUTIONS BECOME DEEPER WITH THE LOW AGAIN...A HIGH WIND WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

POST FRONTAL SHOWERS IN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AND
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY...ANOTHER
LOW WILL MOVE INLAND OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND ON TUESDAY BRINGING WET
AND POSSIBLY BREEZY WEATHER TO THE AREA. WET AND LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS YET
MORE FEATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HYDROLOGICALLY
SIGNIFICANT.

THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...IT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS
EVENING. REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT BULLETIN FOR THE MOST
UP TO DATE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
SLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE AIR MASS WAS UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE AREA. EXPECT THE AIR
MASS TO STABILIZE AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE THREAT OF TSTMS ENDING.

MEANWHILE...THERE WILL BE AREAS OF CIGS IN THE 2-3K FT RANGE WITH
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS THRU THIS EVENING. LOCALIZED VSBYS OF 2-5SM /DUE
TO FOG/ AND CIGS AOB 1K FT ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG
THE I-5 CORRIDOR FROM ABOUT KOLM SWD.

KSEA...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF TSTMS OVER THE TERMINAL TIL ABOUT
0200 UTC. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE TSTMS WILL BE BRIEF GUSTS TO
NEAR 25 KNOTS...HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE TERMINAL...ALTHOUGH A HEAVY SHOWER
THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE THE VSBY TO NEAR 2SM AND CIGS TO
NEAR 3K FT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT DUE TO
FALLING PRES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON
FRI AND WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO A 990 MB LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE SW. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO 993 MB AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE WASHINGTON COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND THE COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT.

THERE CONTINUED TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING...
TRACK...AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS...IF
THE NE MOVING LOW MOVES INTO FAR SW BRITISH COLUMBIA. IF IT MOVES
INTO NORTHERN OREGON OR TRACKS ACROSS FAR SW WASHINGTON...THE THREAT
OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA. THE FORECAST
REFLECTS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON
      COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
      COASTAL WATERS...CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...
      NORTHERN      INLAND WATERS...AND PUGET SOUND TIL 6 PM PDT
      TODAY.

     GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SATURDAY
     MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KPQR 232153
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
251 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE AIR MASS
SLOWLY BECOMES LESS UNSTABLE. A SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL
RAPIDLY DEEPEN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE NORTH
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO SW OREGON FRIDAY MORNING
AND THEN DRIFTS NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ELONGATED
SURFACE LOW FORMS JUST OFF THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN SWINGS
TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY...EARLY AFTERNOON HAS
BECOME MORE ACTIVE. KRTX DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR NEWBERG TO
CAMAS...WA SHORTLY BEFORE 20Z. RECEIVED A CALL FROM AN EMERGENCY
MANAGER IN SW WA JUST AFTER 20Z REGARDING A POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR
KELSO AND LONGVIEW THAT PRODUCED SOME ROOF DAMAGE. KRTX DOPPLER RADAR
VELOCITY AND STORM-RELATIVE MOTION DISPLAYS INDICATED SOME DEGREE OF
ROTATION WITHIN THIS CELL. THIS ACTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
AREA OF COLD AIR CUMULUS OFF THE WA AND N OREGON COAST. SW-W 850 MB
FLOW OF 15-25 KT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GOOD OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN ELEVATED TERRAIN SUCH AS THE OREGON
COAST RANGE...SW WA WILLAPA HILLS...AND THE CASCADE ZONES.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT...BUT DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES LESS UNSTABLE. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE A
NEW LOW THAT DEVELOPS AROUND 40N 130W 00Z SAT. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO SW OREGON FRI MORNING AND THEN LIFTS NORTH FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO INDUCE OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE. THE NORTH
ZONES COULD BE DRY FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF FRI AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT FRI
INTO SAT MORNING. MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR 12Z SAT CREATE A
HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW STRENGTH...TRACK AND
TIMING. THE GFS IS THE MOST CONSOLIDATED WITH THE SURFAFE LOW 12Z
SAT...WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAM HAVE A MORE ELONGATED LOW WITH MULTIPLE
LOW CENTERS. THE LATEST GFS IS NOW THE SLOWEST WITH THE LOW...WITH A
990 MB CENTER NEAR NEWPORT 18Z SAT. THE ECWMF AND NAM HAVE THE MAIN
LOW CENTER NEAR THE FAR N OREGON OR S WA COAST. THE WRF-GFS VALID 18Z
SAT HAS A SMALL CORE OF 60-70 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG THE S PART OF THE
CENTRAL COAST...BUT BY 21Z WIND GUST SPEEDS FALL OFF TO 40-50 KT. IT
ALSO SHOWS A SMALL CORE OF 40-50 KT GUSTS IN THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AT 21Z. DESPITE ALL OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THERE IS A HIGHER
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE REGARDING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPIONG
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY SAT AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT GUSTS TO AT
LEAST 40 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED AS A HEADS UP TO
THIS POSSIBILITY. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AND
MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OVER THE AREA
TODAY...SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHORT-WAVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO NEAR CASCADE PASS LEVELS SUNDAY. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STILL AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER A BRIEF DRYING
PERIOD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY...THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANA...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS
NEXT THURSDAY. ALL IN ALL...EXPECT WET AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS AS THESE FRONTS MOVE THROUGH. /27
&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
EVENING MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.
DEPENDING ON BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...IFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD CERTAINLY DEVELOP TOWARDS 12Z FRIDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW
AT THIS POINT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE VFR TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...BUT DEPENDING ON BREAKS IN THE MID TO UPPER CLOUDS
TONIGHT...IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS COULD CERTAINLY DEVELOP TOWARDS
12Z FRIDAY. /NEUMAN /MH

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE NOW BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
OVER THE WATERS HOWEVER SEAS ARE STILL AROUND 10 TO 12 FEET SO
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING LESS WIND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ALLOW SEAS TO DROP
BELOW 10 FT FOR FRIDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WELL OFF
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND TRACK EITHER NORTHWARD OR
NORTHEASTWARD JUST BEYOND OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE SATURDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WHERE IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL SO CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. MODELS SUGGEST LANDFALL WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE NORTH OREGON COAST AND VANCOUVER ISLAND. IT SEEMS
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE IS MOST LIKELY. A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. REGARDLESS OF THE
TRACKS PROVIDED BY VARIOUS MODELS...GALE FORCE WINDS APPEAR
INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE
FOR LOW END STORM FORCE GUSTS OF 50 KT IF THE STRONGER AND MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK PANS OUT. SEAS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BECOME STEEP
AND WIND DOMINATED...POSSIBLY REACHING UPWARDS OF 20 FT LATE
SATURDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT THE DETAILS AT THIS
POINT IN TIME REMAIN UNCERTAIN. MODELS DO SUGGEST SEAS WILL RELAX
IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 AM
     TO 7 AM PDT FRIDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 232153
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
251 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE AIR MASS
SLOWLY BECOMES LESS UNSTABLE. A SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL
RAPIDLY DEEPEN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE NORTH
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO SW OREGON FRIDAY MORNING
AND THEN DRIFTS NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ELONGATED
SURFACE LOW FORMS JUST OFF THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN SWINGS
TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY...EARLY AFTERNOON HAS
BECOME MORE ACTIVE. KRTX DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR NEWBERG TO
CAMAS...WA SHORTLY BEFORE 20Z. RECEIVED A CALL FROM AN EMERGENCY
MANAGER IN SW WA JUST AFTER 20Z REGARDING A POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR
KELSO AND LONGVIEW THAT PRODUCED SOME ROOF DAMAGE. KRTX DOPPLER RADAR
VELOCITY AND STORM-RELATIVE MOTION DISPLAYS INDICATED SOME DEGREE OF
ROTATION WITHIN THIS CELL. THIS ACTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
AREA OF COLD AIR CUMULUS OFF THE WA AND N OREGON COAST. SW-W 850 MB
FLOW OF 15-25 KT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GOOD OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN ELEVATED TERRAIN SUCH AS THE OREGON
COAST RANGE...SW WA WILLAPA HILLS...AND THE CASCADE ZONES.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT...BUT DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES LESS UNSTABLE. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE A
NEW LOW THAT DEVELOPS AROUND 40N 130W 00Z SAT. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO SW OREGON FRI MORNING AND THEN LIFTS NORTH FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO INDUCE OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE. THE NORTH
ZONES COULD BE DRY FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF FRI AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT FRI
INTO SAT MORNING. MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR 12Z SAT CREATE A
HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW STRENGTH...TRACK AND
TIMING. THE GFS IS THE MOST CONSOLIDATED WITH THE SURFAFE LOW 12Z
SAT...WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAM HAVE A MORE ELONGATED LOW WITH MULTIPLE
LOW CENTERS. THE LATEST GFS IS NOW THE SLOWEST WITH THE LOW...WITH A
990 MB CENTER NEAR NEWPORT 18Z SAT. THE ECWMF AND NAM HAVE THE MAIN
LOW CENTER NEAR THE FAR N OREGON OR S WA COAST. THE WRF-GFS VALID 18Z
SAT HAS A SMALL CORE OF 60-70 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG THE S PART OF THE
CENTRAL COAST...BUT BY 21Z WIND GUST SPEEDS FALL OFF TO 40-50 KT. IT
ALSO SHOWS A SMALL CORE OF 40-50 KT GUSTS IN THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AT 21Z. DESPITE ALL OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THERE IS A HIGHER
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE REGARDING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPIONG
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY SAT AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT GUSTS TO AT
LEAST 40 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED AS A HEADS UP TO
THIS POSSIBILITY. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AND
MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OVER THE AREA
TODAY...SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHORT-WAVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO NEAR CASCADE PASS LEVELS SUNDAY. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STILL AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER A BRIEF DRYING
PERIOD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY...THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANA...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS
NEXT THURSDAY. ALL IN ALL...EXPECT WET AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS AS THESE FRONTS MOVE THROUGH. /27
&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
EVENING MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.
DEPENDING ON BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...IFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD CERTAINLY DEVELOP TOWARDS 12Z FRIDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW
AT THIS POINT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE VFR TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...BUT DEPENDING ON BREAKS IN THE MID TO UPPER CLOUDS
TONIGHT...IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS COULD CERTAINLY DEVELOP TOWARDS
12Z FRIDAY. /NEUMAN /MH

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE NOW BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
OVER THE WATERS HOWEVER SEAS ARE STILL AROUND 10 TO 12 FEET SO
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING LESS WIND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ALLOW SEAS TO DROP
BELOW 10 FT FOR FRIDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WELL OFF
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND TRACK EITHER NORTHWARD OR
NORTHEASTWARD JUST BEYOND OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE SATURDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WHERE IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL SO CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. MODELS SUGGEST LANDFALL WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE NORTH OREGON COAST AND VANCOUVER ISLAND. IT SEEMS
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE IS MOST LIKELY. A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. REGARDLESS OF THE
TRACKS PROVIDED BY VARIOUS MODELS...GALE FORCE WINDS APPEAR
INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE
FOR LOW END STORM FORCE GUSTS OF 50 KT IF THE STRONGER AND MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK PANS OUT. SEAS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BECOME STEEP
AND WIND DOMINATED...POSSIBLY REACHING UPWARDS OF 20 FT LATE
SATURDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT THE DETAILS AT THIS
POINT IN TIME REMAIN UNCERTAIN. MODELS DO SUGGEST SEAS WILL RELAX
IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 AM
     TO 7 AM PDT FRIDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 232121
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
221 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy and unsettled conditions will continue for the rest
of today but be on the decrease tonight and into tomorrow. This is
only temporary as rain is expected to return Friday night and
Saturday. A strong cold front passage Saturday Night and Sunday
will produce very windy conditions with gusts in excess of 40 mph.
The pattern will continue to be active into early next week. This
includes the potential for widespread rain into early next week as
moisture associated with former typhoons makes its way toward the
Pacific Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Friday...Expectation for decreasing clouds and pops
overnight as the northern end of the large baroclinic band
extending southwest out into the East Pacific continues to pass
through the forecast area as a wet cold front. The cool
conditionally unstable airmass on the north side of this front
does have numerous small mesoscale shortwaves rotating in it close
to the baroclinic band, and with enough lingering moisture from
recent rainfall a small mention of thunderstorms in proximity to
the exiting frontal zone remain into the early evening hours. The
band continues to work its way to the south and stalls somewhere
in Oregon and Central Idaho which is far enough to the south to
leave a relatively dry forecast for Friday with some mention of
fog/stratus for the early morning hours. The front will come back
up again as a warm front of sorts later on Friday. Due to the
dynamic nature of the forecast and expectation cloud cover will
work to moderate temperatures forecast temperatures remain on the
warm side of what would be considered normal for this time of
year. /Pelatti

Friday night through Sunday night...Quite the active weather pattern
will be coming up through this period of the forecast. And for an
active pattern the models are in pretty good agreement. A warm
front will move back north through the forecast area ahead of an
upstream upper level low. This will bring our first shot of of
precipitation to the area. A cold front will follow Saturday
night with the upper trough lingering over the Inland Northwest
through Sunday night. This will allow the precipitation to become
showery. Also expect decreasing snow levels and windy conditions
Saturday night and Sunday.

*Precipitation: Yes, and quite a bit. The warm front will tap into the
 next atmospheric river...with PWATs rising to between .70 to .80
 which is right around 200 percent of normal. Wet indeed.
 Isentropic up-glide is fairly vigorous and with southeast-south
 low to mid level flow the Cascades east to the western basin
 should receive a pretty good shot of measurable precipitation.
 The warm front will get pushed east early Saturday as the flow
 becomes south-southwesterly. This will shift the focus across the
 northern mountains and finally the Idaho Panhandle Saturday
 afternoon. The cold front will follow Saturday evening. Ample
 showers will continue near the Cascade crest...the northern
 mountains and the Idaho Panhandle through Sunday night, but the
 lower east slopes...Columbia basin and the Palouse will see a
 decrease in the showers by Sunday morning. QPF totals through
 Sunday evening will be between one half and one inch in the
 Cascades. From one quarter to one half in the northern mountains
 and the Idaho Panhandle, and from several hundredths to around
 .20 in the Basin, Palouse and the Spokane/Coeur D`Alene areas.
 Snow levels will start out from 5k feet across the northwest to
 over 7k feet across the southeast and rise 1500-2000 feet through
 the night. So precipitation as mainly rain with some high level
 snow. The snow levels will drop behind the front to below 5k
 feet, but by this time the precipitation should be on the
 decrease. Still several inches of snow will be possible for the
 higher terrain over the Cascades and a couple of inches of snow
 for the Panhandle mountains Saturday night and Sunday. Small
 stream and rivers will have to be monitored for rises...but right
 now the thinking is that there should be no flooding.

*Winds: East to southeast winds Friday and Saturday will switch to the
 southwest ahead of the cold front late Saturday afternoon, then
 increase Saturday night and remain windy/gusty Sunday. Model
 guidance is indicating about 3-6 hour time frame of peak winds
 between 06-12z Sunday. Sustained winds of 25 mph to 30 mph with
 gusts 25 to 40 mph will be common for the ridges...The deep
 basin...The west Plains...but the models focus the strongest
 winds across the Palouse and the lower slopes of the blues where
 sustained winds of 30 to 35 mph or higher with gusts 40 to 50 mph
 will be possible. Winds will decrease by morning but expect a
 windy day on Sunday. This will have to be monitored closely over
 the next 48-72 hours to pin point where the potential problem
 areas may be. No highlights are expected with this forecast
 package.

*Temps: Temperatures will increase on Saturday with the strong
 warm advection associated with the warm front with highs 8-12
 degrees above normal. The temps will then cool back down into the
 50s on Sunday behind the cold front. /Tobin

Monday through Thursday: An active weather pattern continues,
with temperatures hovering around average. The remnants of
Tropical Storm Ana come into the Pacific Northwest early in the
week. This is followed by the approach and possible passage of
additional systems through the week. However by middle to late
week model consistency degrades. Some runs are more eager to bring
systems inland and keep the region wet; other runs hold them
offshore and keep the region drier.

First on Monday a weak shortwave ridge nudges in from the west-
southwest, with a mid-level impulse/jet streak riding over the top
of it during the day. This keeps shower chances alive across
southeast WA to the central Panhandle and near the immediate
Cascade crest. Cooler air behind Sunday`s trough pushes snow level
down toward 4-4.5kft; this means possible snow at pass level. So
we will monitor this, (especially across the central Panhandle
including the I-90 corridor toward Lookout Pass) for some light
accumulations. Quiet weather is expected over the rest of the
region.

From Monday night through Tuesday night that next system comes
in. Ostensibly it comes with another modest moisture fetch which
includes the remains Tropical Storm Ana that are picked up by a
system currently to its northwest. Models are coming into better
agreement. Confidence is not as high as it could be given recent
model inconsistencies, but right now it looks like Tuesday could
be rather wet. Expect thickening clouds Monday night with the main
rain chances increasing over the Cascades. The precipitation
chances rise throughout the region Tuesday as the system moves
inland, with some moderate to locally rainfall possible in the
Cascades and northeast WA and north ID. Snow levels linger around
4-5kft in the morning, then rise to around 5-7kft in the afternoon
over a large part of the region. The main exception could be
across the Canadian border counties where they may linger around
that 4-5kft mark. So if precipitation starts early enough there
could be some snow accumulation around the passes, with the best
threat of it lingering through the day around Sherman Pass where
the warmer air may not reach. With this said, there is still a lot
of room for model changes but it is something to monitor.

By Tuesday night the precipitation focus gradually backs against
the Cascades and retreats to the eastern mountains as the front
passes and a shortwave ridge moves in. From Wednesday to Thursday
models now depict a shortwave ridge dominating the pattern.
However previous runs brought a trough inland. I have trended PoPs
downward away from the Cascades, but still kept some low chances
alive given uncertainty. But if trends hold the forecast may be
dried out completely away from the Cascades. I also increased the
potential for fog across the northern valleys and portions of the
Spokane/C`dA area for the night and early morning hours. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Large stalled out frontal zone draped across the
aviation area will keep rain, and some low stratus clouds
associated with it, in the forecast for much of the day. Additionally
the cool conditionally unstable air behind the front on the north
side of it and various shortwaves moving along the edge of the
front is enough to allow for a minor mention of thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Winds aloft remain robust and from the
southwest and some locations remain decoupled from it this morning
so have included mention of non- convective low level windshear in
those locations as winds shift from light or light from the
northeast to more robust prevalent southwest winds aloft. As to be
expected with such a complicated wind pattern there are likely to
be wind gusts in the afternoon, possibly as high as 30-40kts. With
so much low level moisture available from this recent rainfall
there is some potential for fog and low cloud formation overnight
and into Friday Morning as the front sags to the south. Models
hint that this same front will lift back up from Oregon and push
through the aviation area as a wet warm front Friday
evening/night. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        40  57  43  65  44  53 /  60  10  30  20  50  30
Coeur d`Alene  39  57  40  64  42  53 /  60  10  20  20  60  30
Pullman        42  59  45  69  44  52 /  60  10  40  10  50  30
Lewiston       46  64  46  72  48  58 /  60  20  30  10  40  20
Colville       36  59  41  63  44  53 /  50  10  40  30  70  50
Sandpoint      37  56  38  60  41  49 /  80  10  30  20  80  50
Kellogg        39  53  41  63  42  46 /  80  20  30  10  70  40
Moses Lake     40  59  44  62  46  60 /  10  10  60  20  30  10
Wenatchee      42  57  47  58  46  57 /  10  10  70  50  40  10
Omak           36  58  42  56  44  56 /  10  10  60  50  50  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 231741
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1040 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy and unsettled conditions will continue today...followed by
some light rain Friday. A strong cold front passage Saturday
Night and Sunday will produce very windy conditions with gusts
in excess of 40 mph. The pattern will continue to be active into
early next week. This includes the potential for widespread rain
into early next week as moisture associated with former typhoons
makes its way toward the Pacific Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Forecast updated to increase pops and qpf based on how filled the
radar is with returns this morning along with many surface
observation sites reporting some measurable rainfall this
morning. The chance of thunderstorms this afternoon remains in the
forecast as the atmosphere becomes conditionally unstable north of
the large baroclinic band associated with the jet stream which is
to passing to the south through Oregon and bending up and exiting
through parts of North Idaho and into Northwest Montana. May go
back and increase surface wind gusts this afternoon as the upper
level winds near 700mb at KOTX were near 50kts and around 35kts at
800mb and convection in this conditionally unstable airmass is
likely to mix these robust upper level winds down to the surface
as wind gusts. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Large stalled out frontal zone draped across the
aviation area will keep rain, and some low stratus clouds
associated with it, in the forecast for much of the day. Additionally
the cool conditionally unstable air behind the front on the north
side of it and various shortwaves moving along the edge of the
front is enough to allow for a minor mention of thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Winds aloft remain robust and from the
southwest and some locations remain decoupled from it this morning
so have included mention of non- convective low level windshear in
those locations as winds shift from light or light from the
northeast to more robust prevalent southwest winds aloft. As to be
expected with such a complicated wind pattern there are likely to
be wind gusts in the afternoon, possibly as high as 30-40kts. With
so much low level moisture available from this recent rainfall
there is some potential for fog and low cloud formation overnight
and into Friday Morning as the front sags to the south. Models
hint that this same front will lift back up from Oregon and push
through the aviation area as a wet warm front Friday
evening/night. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        58  40  57  44  65  46 / 100  20  10  20  20  50
Coeur d`Alene  55  39  57  41  65  44 / 100  40  10  20  20  50
Pullman        58  42  59  47  70  46 /  90  30  10  40  10  40
Lewiston       65  46  64  46  73  48 /  70  30  20  40  10  30
Colville       56  36  59  41  66  44 /  70  30  10  50  30  70
Sandpoint      53  37  56  38  62  43 / 100  70  10  30  20  70
Kellogg        51  39  53  42  63  42 / 100  70  20  20  10  60
Moses Lake     65  40  59  45  63  48 /  70  10  10  40  20  30
Wenatchee      62  42  57  47  60  46 /  90  10  10  60  40  30
Omak           61  36  58  44  58  45 /  50  10  10  60  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 231741
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1040 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy and unsettled conditions will continue today...followed by
some light rain Friday. A strong cold front passage Saturday
Night and Sunday will produce very windy conditions with gusts
in excess of 40 mph. The pattern will continue to be active into
early next week. This includes the potential for widespread rain
into early next week as moisture associated with former typhoons
makes its way toward the Pacific Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Forecast updated to increase pops and qpf based on how filled the
radar is with returns this morning along with many surface
observation sites reporting some measurable rainfall this
morning. The chance of thunderstorms this afternoon remains in the
forecast as the atmosphere becomes conditionally unstable north of
the large baroclinic band associated with the jet stream which is
to passing to the south through Oregon and bending up and exiting
through parts of North Idaho and into Northwest Montana. May go
back and increase surface wind gusts this afternoon as the upper
level winds near 700mb at KOTX were near 50kts and around 35kts at
800mb and convection in this conditionally unstable airmass is
likely to mix these robust upper level winds down to the surface
as wind gusts. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Large stalled out frontal zone draped across the
aviation area will keep rain, and some low stratus clouds
associated with it, in the forecast for much of the day. Additionally
the cool conditionally unstable air behind the front on the north
side of it and various shortwaves moving along the edge of the
front is enough to allow for a minor mention of thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Winds aloft remain robust and from the
southwest and some locations remain decoupled from it this morning
so have included mention of non- convective low level windshear in
those locations as winds shift from light or light from the
northeast to more robust prevalent southwest winds aloft. As to be
expected with such a complicated wind pattern there are likely to
be wind gusts in the afternoon, possibly as high as 30-40kts. With
so much low level moisture available from this recent rainfall
there is some potential for fog and low cloud formation overnight
and into Friday Morning as the front sags to the south. Models
hint that this same front will lift back up from Oregon and push
through the aviation area as a wet warm front Friday
evening/night. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        58  40  57  44  65  46 / 100  20  10  20  20  50
Coeur d`Alene  55  39  57  41  65  44 / 100  40  10  20  20  50
Pullman        58  42  59  47  70  46 /  90  30  10  40  10  40
Lewiston       65  46  64  46  73  48 /  70  30  20  40  10  30
Colville       56  36  59  41  66  44 /  70  30  10  50  30  70
Sandpoint      53  37  56  38  62  43 / 100  70  10  30  20  70
Kellogg        51  39  53  42  63  42 / 100  70  20  20  10  60
Moses Lake     65  40  59  45  63  48 /  70  10  10  40  20  30
Wenatchee      62  42  57  47  60  46 /  90  10  10  60  40  30
Omak           61  36  58  44  58  45 /  50  10  10  60  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





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