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000
FXUS66 KSEW 301055
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
355 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER THE INTERIOR.
NORTHERLY WINDS RIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE HAS BROKEN UP THE LOW CLOUDS
ALONG THE NORTH COAST WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF THE LOW
CLOUDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM RANGED FROM NEAR 50 AT FORKS AND FRIDAY HARBOR
TO THE MID 60S IN THE SEATTLE METRO AREA.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS IN THE MID 580 DMS. THERE WAS A
LITTLE SURGE OF MARINE AIR INTO THE INTERIOR LAST NIGHT WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. EVEN THROUGH THE STRATUS
DID NOT MAKE IT DOWN THE STRAIT OR MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN SHELTON
DEW POINTS THIS MORNING ARE 2 TO 6 DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT
OVER THE INTERIOR. MODEL 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TOUCH COOLER
TODAY VERSUS THE LAST TWO DAYS. ADD THIS TO THE WEAK MARINE AIR
INTRUSION WILL GO FOR A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING FOR THE HIGHS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY. MID 70S TO UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR THE STRAIT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

PRETTY MUCH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE
LOW CLOUDS FORMING ALONG THE COAST IN THE EVENING PUSHING INLAND
DOWN THE STRAIT AND THROUGH THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY INTO THE VERY
SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OFT HE PUGET SOUND IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
EACH DAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW WITH THE STRATUS BURNING
BACK TO THE COAST EACH MORNING. HIGHS ALONG THE COAST AND STRAIT
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH HIGHS IN THE INTERIOR
IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S.

A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THE PERSISTENCE FORECAST IS OVER THE CENTRAL
WASHINGTON CASCADES. 00Z MODEL RUNS SHOW THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES. MONSOON MOISTURE
ROTATING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE  HAS
RESULTED IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS NEAR AS THE OREGON CASCADES
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. EVEN WITH THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
THE 00Z MODEL RUNS DO NOT HAVE ANY CONVECTION ON THIS SIDE OF THE
CASCADES THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST UNCHANGED.

.LONG TERM...ALL OF THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOWING A VERY WEAK FEATURE
MOVING UP OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON ON SATURDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS FEATURE COULD CAUSE WOULD BE AN INCREASE
IN THE CONVECTION OVER THE CASCADES. THE GFS SHOWS A LITTLE
SOMETHING OVER THE NORTH CASCADES ON SATURDAY WHILE THE REST OF THE
MODELS KEEP THE ACTIVITY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. CURRENT
FORECAST JUST SHOWS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS THIS IS A GOOD WAY TO
GO AT THIS POINT. SOME MORE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL ON SUNDAY WITH
THE GFS AND CANADIAN KEEPING THE WEAK FEATURE IN THE AREA WHICH
WOULD KEEP A CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE ECMWF HAS
THE FEATURE FURTHER EAST. GFS MAINTAINS SOME WEAK TROUGHINESS INTO
MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF TURNS THE FLOW ALOFT WESTERLY. CURRENT
FORECAST JUST HAS INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON. WILL STAY WITH THIS IDEA FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LOWLANDS. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE A
LITTLE LOWER...IN THE LOWER 580 DMS AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE A
LITTLE STRONGER FOR A CHANCE OF THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS GETTING
FURTHER INLAND BUT THE ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE STRATUS FROM BURNING BACK TO THE COAST EACH DAY. 00Z RUNS
MAX TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER VERSUS THE RUNS
YESTERDAY MORNING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES LOOK FOR THE MAX TEMPS TO
BE KNOCKED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND. EVEN WITH THE
COOLER MAX TEMPERATURES HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE NEAR TO A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE INTERIOR...MID 70S TO MID 80S...THE
COAST AND STRAIT WILL REMAIN NEAR 70 FOR HIGHS EACH DAY. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH SW
FLOW ALOFT OVER WA. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE AIR IS DRY AND
STABLE EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...MAINLY COAST AND
STRAIT. OTHERWISE...MORE SUNNY WEATHER ON TAP TODAY.

KSEA...CLEAR WITH NLY BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH LOWER PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE VARYING DEGREES OF ONSHORE FLOW EACH
DAY. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE. WEAKER ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF OF JUAN DE
FUCA.


&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KSEW 301055
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
355 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER THE INTERIOR.
NORTHERLY WINDS RIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE HAS BROKEN UP THE LOW CLOUDS
ALONG THE NORTH COAST WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF THE LOW
CLOUDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM RANGED FROM NEAR 50 AT FORKS AND FRIDAY HARBOR
TO THE MID 60S IN THE SEATTLE METRO AREA.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS IN THE MID 580 DMS. THERE WAS A
LITTLE SURGE OF MARINE AIR INTO THE INTERIOR LAST NIGHT WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. EVEN THROUGH THE STRATUS
DID NOT MAKE IT DOWN THE STRAIT OR MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN SHELTON
DEW POINTS THIS MORNING ARE 2 TO 6 DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT
OVER THE INTERIOR. MODEL 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TOUCH COOLER
TODAY VERSUS THE LAST TWO DAYS. ADD THIS TO THE WEAK MARINE AIR
INTRUSION WILL GO FOR A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING FOR THE HIGHS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY. MID 70S TO UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR THE STRAIT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

PRETTY MUCH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE
LOW CLOUDS FORMING ALONG THE COAST IN THE EVENING PUSHING INLAND
DOWN THE STRAIT AND THROUGH THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY INTO THE VERY
SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OFT HE PUGET SOUND IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
EACH DAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW WITH THE STRATUS BURNING
BACK TO THE COAST EACH MORNING. HIGHS ALONG THE COAST AND STRAIT
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH HIGHS IN THE INTERIOR
IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S.

A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THE PERSISTENCE FORECAST IS OVER THE CENTRAL
WASHINGTON CASCADES. 00Z MODEL RUNS SHOW THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES. MONSOON MOISTURE
ROTATING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE  HAS
RESULTED IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS NEAR AS THE OREGON CASCADES
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. EVEN WITH THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
THE 00Z MODEL RUNS DO NOT HAVE ANY CONVECTION ON THIS SIDE OF THE
CASCADES THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST UNCHANGED.

.LONG TERM...ALL OF THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOWING A VERY WEAK FEATURE
MOVING UP OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON ON SATURDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS FEATURE COULD CAUSE WOULD BE AN INCREASE
IN THE CONVECTION OVER THE CASCADES. THE GFS SHOWS A LITTLE
SOMETHING OVER THE NORTH CASCADES ON SATURDAY WHILE THE REST OF THE
MODELS KEEP THE ACTIVITY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. CURRENT
FORECAST JUST SHOWS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS THIS IS A GOOD WAY TO
GO AT THIS POINT. SOME MORE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL ON SUNDAY WITH
THE GFS AND CANADIAN KEEPING THE WEAK FEATURE IN THE AREA WHICH
WOULD KEEP A CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE ECMWF HAS
THE FEATURE FURTHER EAST. GFS MAINTAINS SOME WEAK TROUGHINESS INTO
MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF TURNS THE FLOW ALOFT WESTERLY. CURRENT
FORECAST JUST HAS INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON. WILL STAY WITH THIS IDEA FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LOWLANDS. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE A
LITTLE LOWER...IN THE LOWER 580 DMS AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE A
LITTLE STRONGER FOR A CHANCE OF THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS GETTING
FURTHER INLAND BUT THE ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE STRATUS FROM BURNING BACK TO THE COAST EACH DAY. 00Z RUNS
MAX TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER VERSUS THE RUNS
YESTERDAY MORNING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES LOOK FOR THE MAX TEMPS TO
BE KNOCKED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND. EVEN WITH THE
COOLER MAX TEMPERATURES HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE NEAR TO A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE INTERIOR...MID 70S TO MID 80S...THE
COAST AND STRAIT WILL REMAIN NEAR 70 FOR HIGHS EACH DAY. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH SW
FLOW ALOFT OVER WA. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE AIR IS DRY AND
STABLE EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...MAINLY COAST AND
STRAIT. OTHERWISE...MORE SUNNY WEATHER ON TAP TODAY.

KSEA...CLEAR WITH NLY BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH LOWER PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE VARYING DEGREES OF ONSHORE FLOW EACH
DAY. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE. WEAKER ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF OF JUAN DE
FUCA.


&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 301006
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
305 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF
THE  WEST COAST OF CANADA LEAVING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES BRINGS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY LANE COUNTY.
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM IDAHO TO ARIZONA WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE B.C. COAST. THE
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  AS A RESULT
VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPS
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE COASTAL
AREAS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH THE STRONG INFLUENCE OF THE MARINE
LAYER.

THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE OREGON CASCADES WILL VARY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OCCUR OVER.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS MOISTURE IS LACKING AND
INSTABILITY BELOW 500 MB IS LOW. THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES APPEAR TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS VORT
MAX CLIPS THE AREA.  BETTER CHANCES FOR THU/THU NIGHT AS THE REMNANT
MOISTURE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN LIFT NORTH AND POSSIBLY
COMBINE WITH ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. NAM VERTICAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN MORE INLINE WITH OBSERVATIONS
SO WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS HIGH MOISTURE VALUES. THE HIGH OREGON
CASCADES ARE THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO GET THE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS FURTHER WEST COULD BE AFFECTED IF
THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL IN SOME SE FLOW ALOFT.
FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE
CREST OF THE OREGON CASCADES THU/THU NIGHT.  SIMILAR THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON CASCADES RETURN FRI AFTERNOON. WEAGLE/MH

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS ON THE WEST
SIDE OF  AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE UP THIS RIDGE AND BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE WILL STAY
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL KEEP HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNTIL
THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EITHER BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
-MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG REMAINING ALONG THE COASTLINE WITH IFR
AND LOCAL LIFR PERSISTING THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS
STRATUS LOOKS TO CONTINUE PUSHING UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA...WITH
CIGS AROUND 1000 FT MAKING IT TO KKLS. EXPECT THIS PUSH TO
CONTINUE TOWARDS THE PORTLAND METRO TERMINALS...WITH CIGS LIKELY
FORMING AT KSPB BUT STILL LESS CONFIDENCE THAT PUSH WILL MAKE IT
TO KPDX OR KTTD. ANY STRATUS INLAND SHOULD CLEAR BY 17Z
TODAY...WITH THE COASTAL AREAS IMPROVING TO VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. STRATUS MAY MAKE A RETURN TO THE COAST THIS
EVENING...THOUGH PERHAPS NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z NEAR KAST. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. LOW
MVFR TO HIGH IFR STRATUS MAY APPROACH THE TERMINAL FROM THE W AFT
12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW. ANY CIGS THAT DO FORM
SHOULD CLEAR BY 16Z WITH VFR THEREAFTER.  CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY AS HIGH PRES
IS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE NE PAC. MEANWHILE...THE THERMAL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER N CALIFORNIA AND WILL RISE SLIGHTLY N IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
A BIT OVER THE OREGON WATERS WITH GUSTIER WINDS...TO AROUND 25 KT
AT TIMES. ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND NORTHERN INNER WATERS... WITH STRONGEST WINDS MOSTLY S
OF TILLAMOOK.

SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO PRIMARILY BE A MIXTURE OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL...AND INDISTINGUISHABLE AT TIMES...SO CONTINUED TO
COMBINE THE SEAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS WILL REMAIN
STEEP AND IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEK...THROUGH COULD
INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 7 FT AT TIMES WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. SEAS
WILL BE STEEPEST WHEN THE WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST...DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...PARTICULARLY S OF TILLAMOOK AND
NEAR SHORE. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM AND COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE
     HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 301006
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
305 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF
THE  WEST COAST OF CANADA LEAVING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES BRINGS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY LANE COUNTY.
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM IDAHO TO ARIZONA WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE B.C. COAST. THE
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  AS A RESULT
VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPS
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE COASTAL
AREAS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH THE STRONG INFLUENCE OF THE MARINE
LAYER.

THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE OREGON CASCADES WILL VARY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OCCUR OVER.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS MOISTURE IS LACKING AND
INSTABILITY BELOW 500 MB IS LOW. THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES APPEAR TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS VORT
MAX CLIPS THE AREA.  BETTER CHANCES FOR THU/THU NIGHT AS THE REMNANT
MOISTURE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN LIFT NORTH AND POSSIBLY
COMBINE WITH ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. NAM VERTICAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN MORE INLINE WITH OBSERVATIONS
SO WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS HIGH MOISTURE VALUES. THE HIGH OREGON
CASCADES ARE THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO GET THE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS FURTHER WEST COULD BE AFFECTED IF
THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL IN SOME SE FLOW ALOFT.
FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE
CREST OF THE OREGON CASCADES THU/THU NIGHT.  SIMILAR THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON CASCADES RETURN FRI AFTERNOON. WEAGLE/MH

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS ON THE WEST
SIDE OF  AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE UP THIS RIDGE AND BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE WILL STAY
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL KEEP HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNTIL
THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EITHER BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
-MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG REMAINING ALONG THE COASTLINE WITH IFR
AND LOCAL LIFR PERSISTING THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS
STRATUS LOOKS TO CONTINUE PUSHING UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA...WITH
CIGS AROUND 1000 FT MAKING IT TO KKLS. EXPECT THIS PUSH TO
CONTINUE TOWARDS THE PORTLAND METRO TERMINALS...WITH CIGS LIKELY
FORMING AT KSPB BUT STILL LESS CONFIDENCE THAT PUSH WILL MAKE IT
TO KPDX OR KTTD. ANY STRATUS INLAND SHOULD CLEAR BY 17Z
TODAY...WITH THE COASTAL AREAS IMPROVING TO VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. STRATUS MAY MAKE A RETURN TO THE COAST THIS
EVENING...THOUGH PERHAPS NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z NEAR KAST. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. LOW
MVFR TO HIGH IFR STRATUS MAY APPROACH THE TERMINAL FROM THE W AFT
12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW. ANY CIGS THAT DO FORM
SHOULD CLEAR BY 16Z WITH VFR THEREAFTER.  CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY AS HIGH PRES
IS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE NE PAC. MEANWHILE...THE THERMAL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER N CALIFORNIA AND WILL RISE SLIGHTLY N IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
A BIT OVER THE OREGON WATERS WITH GUSTIER WINDS...TO AROUND 25 KT
AT TIMES. ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND NORTHERN INNER WATERS... WITH STRONGEST WINDS MOSTLY S
OF TILLAMOOK.

SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO PRIMARILY BE A MIXTURE OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL...AND INDISTINGUISHABLE AT TIMES...SO CONTINUED TO
COMBINE THE SEAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS WILL REMAIN
STEEP AND IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEK...THROUGH COULD
INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 7 FT AT TIMES WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. SEAS
WILL BE STEEPEST WHEN THE WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST...DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...PARTICULARLY S OF TILLAMOOK AND
NEAR SHORE. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM AND COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE
     HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 301006
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
305 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF
THE  WEST COAST OF CANADA LEAVING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES BRINGS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY LANE COUNTY.
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM IDAHO TO ARIZONA WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE B.C. COAST. THE
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  AS A RESULT
VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPS
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE COASTAL
AREAS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH THE STRONG INFLUENCE OF THE MARINE
LAYER.

THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE OREGON CASCADES WILL VARY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OCCUR OVER.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS MOISTURE IS LACKING AND
INSTABILITY BELOW 500 MB IS LOW. THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES APPEAR TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS VORT
MAX CLIPS THE AREA.  BETTER CHANCES FOR THU/THU NIGHT AS THE REMNANT
MOISTURE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN LIFT NORTH AND POSSIBLY
COMBINE WITH ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. NAM VERTICAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN MORE INLINE WITH OBSERVATIONS
SO WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS HIGH MOISTURE VALUES. THE HIGH OREGON
CASCADES ARE THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO GET THE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS FURTHER WEST COULD BE AFFECTED IF
THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL IN SOME SE FLOW ALOFT.
FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE
CREST OF THE OREGON CASCADES THU/THU NIGHT.  SIMILAR THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON CASCADES RETURN FRI AFTERNOON. WEAGLE/MH

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS ON THE WEST
SIDE OF  AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE UP THIS RIDGE AND BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE WILL STAY
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL KEEP HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNTIL
THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EITHER BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
-MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG REMAINING ALONG THE COASTLINE WITH IFR
AND LOCAL LIFR PERSISTING THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS
STRATUS LOOKS TO CONTINUE PUSHING UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA...WITH
CIGS AROUND 1000 FT MAKING IT TO KKLS. EXPECT THIS PUSH TO
CONTINUE TOWARDS THE PORTLAND METRO TERMINALS...WITH CIGS LIKELY
FORMING AT KSPB BUT STILL LESS CONFIDENCE THAT PUSH WILL MAKE IT
TO KPDX OR KTTD. ANY STRATUS INLAND SHOULD CLEAR BY 17Z
TODAY...WITH THE COASTAL AREAS IMPROVING TO VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. STRATUS MAY MAKE A RETURN TO THE COAST THIS
EVENING...THOUGH PERHAPS NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z NEAR KAST. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. LOW
MVFR TO HIGH IFR STRATUS MAY APPROACH THE TERMINAL FROM THE W AFT
12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW. ANY CIGS THAT DO FORM
SHOULD CLEAR BY 16Z WITH VFR THEREAFTER.  CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY AS HIGH PRES
IS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE NE PAC. MEANWHILE...THE THERMAL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER N CALIFORNIA AND WILL RISE SLIGHTLY N IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
A BIT OVER THE OREGON WATERS WITH GUSTIER WINDS...TO AROUND 25 KT
AT TIMES. ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND NORTHERN INNER WATERS... WITH STRONGEST WINDS MOSTLY S
OF TILLAMOOK.

SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO PRIMARILY BE A MIXTURE OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL...AND INDISTINGUISHABLE AT TIMES...SO CONTINUED TO
COMBINE THE SEAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS WILL REMAIN
STEEP AND IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEK...THROUGH COULD
INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 7 FT AT TIMES WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. SEAS
WILL BE STEEPEST WHEN THE WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST...DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...PARTICULARLY S OF TILLAMOOK AND
NEAR SHORE. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM AND COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE
     HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 301006
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
305 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF
THE  WEST COAST OF CANADA LEAVING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES BRINGS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY LANE COUNTY.
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM IDAHO TO ARIZONA WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE B.C. COAST. THE
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  AS A RESULT
VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPS
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE COASTAL
AREAS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH THE STRONG INFLUENCE OF THE MARINE
LAYER.

THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE OREGON CASCADES WILL VARY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OCCUR OVER.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS MOISTURE IS LACKING AND
INSTABILITY BELOW 500 MB IS LOW. THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES APPEAR TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS VORT
MAX CLIPS THE AREA.  BETTER CHANCES FOR THU/THU NIGHT AS THE REMNANT
MOISTURE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN LIFT NORTH AND POSSIBLY
COMBINE WITH ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. NAM VERTICAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN MORE INLINE WITH OBSERVATIONS
SO WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS HIGH MOISTURE VALUES. THE HIGH OREGON
CASCADES ARE THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO GET THE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS FURTHER WEST COULD BE AFFECTED IF
THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL IN SOME SE FLOW ALOFT.
FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE
CREST OF THE OREGON CASCADES THU/THU NIGHT.  SIMILAR THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON CASCADES RETURN FRI AFTERNOON. WEAGLE/MH

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS ON THE WEST
SIDE OF  AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE UP THIS RIDGE AND BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE WILL STAY
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL KEEP HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNTIL
THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EITHER BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
-MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG REMAINING ALONG THE COASTLINE WITH IFR
AND LOCAL LIFR PERSISTING THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS
STRATUS LOOKS TO CONTINUE PUSHING UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA...WITH
CIGS AROUND 1000 FT MAKING IT TO KKLS. EXPECT THIS PUSH TO
CONTINUE TOWARDS THE PORTLAND METRO TERMINALS...WITH CIGS LIKELY
FORMING AT KSPB BUT STILL LESS CONFIDENCE THAT PUSH WILL MAKE IT
TO KPDX OR KTTD. ANY STRATUS INLAND SHOULD CLEAR BY 17Z
TODAY...WITH THE COASTAL AREAS IMPROVING TO VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. STRATUS MAY MAKE A RETURN TO THE COAST THIS
EVENING...THOUGH PERHAPS NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z NEAR KAST. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. LOW
MVFR TO HIGH IFR STRATUS MAY APPROACH THE TERMINAL FROM THE W AFT
12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW. ANY CIGS THAT DO FORM
SHOULD CLEAR BY 16Z WITH VFR THEREAFTER.  CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY AS HIGH PRES
IS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE NE PAC. MEANWHILE...THE THERMAL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER N CALIFORNIA AND WILL RISE SLIGHTLY N IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
A BIT OVER THE OREGON WATERS WITH GUSTIER WINDS...TO AROUND 25 KT
AT TIMES. ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND NORTHERN INNER WATERS... WITH STRONGEST WINDS MOSTLY S
OF TILLAMOOK.

SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO PRIMARILY BE A MIXTURE OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL...AND INDISTINGUISHABLE AT TIMES...SO CONTINUED TO
COMBINE THE SEAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS WILL REMAIN
STEEP AND IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEK...THROUGH COULD
INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 7 FT AT TIMES WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. SEAS
WILL BE STEEPEST WHEN THE WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST...DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...PARTICULARLY S OF TILLAMOOK AND
NEAR SHORE. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM AND COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE
     HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KOTX 300920
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
220 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny and hot weather will continue over the Inland Northwest
through at least Friday. A gradual increase in clouds over the
next few days may knock temperatures down a few degrees, but mid
90s to low 100s will be common through the work week. The threat
for thunderstorms should increase over the weekend which may
knock temperatures down a bit more.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...The ridge of high pressure will remain
fixed over the region keeping temperatures well above normal. Dry
conditions will prevail for much of the forecast area but isolated
showers and thunderstorms will be possible for some of the higher
terrain today and Thursday. We did see a couple convective cells
pop up over the North Cascades Tuesday and since there will be a
bit stronger impulse brushing the area today, isolated TS were
added to the forecast there. The better (but still low) chance of
showers and thunderstorms will be across the southeast zones where
monsoonal moisture will push up from the south. Satellite imagery
at 2 am PDT shows this moisture headed our way and models are
showing a better, but still modest, surge for Thursday. Convective
parameters are not impressive but definitely worth a slight chance
of thunder in the forecast. One question mark is the moisture from
the remnants of a tropical system that is streaming into soCal but
models are keeping this well to our south around Nevada. The
increased cloud cover will work to keep daytime temperatures a
couple of degrees cooler than Tuesday, but not much more than
that. The heat will continue on Thursday with valley temps in the
mid 90s to low triple digits. Overnight lows will remain quite
warm, mainly in the 60s, with poor RH recovery, especially for the
mid-slope locations. /Kelch

Thursday night through Tuesday...An Omega blocking pattern will be
over North America through Tuesday. Deep upper lows will be in the
eastern Pacific and another near Hudson bay...with a mean ridge of
high pressure in between. The ridge axis is expected to move far
enough east over the next 24-36 hours for southwest flow to
develop across the Pacific Northwest, this will allow moisture to
move up from the south and southwest. In addition there will be a
series of weak weather disturbances moving trough the region.
While this flow pattern will result in a slight cool down in
temperatures, daily highs will remain 5-10 degrees above seasonal
averages. Moisture advection into the region will help to further
destabilize the atmosphere and in combination with the forcing
provided by the weak disturbances there will be a chance late day
convection each day. This convection will be mainly tied to the
mountain terrain each afternoon, but in reality an afternoon
thunderstorm will be possible anywhere in the forecast area.
/Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Scattered mid/high level clouds will continue to
overspread most sites through the period. However, little to no
precipitation is expected with this cloud cover. ty


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        97  67  96  67  94  65 /   0  10  10   0  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  95  62  94  61  93  62 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        95  56  94  59  92  57 /  10  10  10  10  10  20
Lewiston      102  70 101  71  99  68 /  10  10  10  10  20  20
Colville      102  57 101  58  97  59 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      93  54  92  54  90  56 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        93  61  93  61  91  62 /  10  10  20  10  10  20
Moses Lake    102  64 101  64  99  64 /  10   0   0  10  10  10
Wenatchee     100  71 100  71  98  71 /  10   0   0  10  10  10
Omak          102  65 100  65 100  68 /   0   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 300920
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
220 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny and hot weather will continue over the Inland Northwest
through at least Friday. A gradual increase in clouds over the
next few days may knock temperatures down a few degrees, but mid
90s to low 100s will be common through the work week. The threat
for thunderstorms should increase over the weekend which may
knock temperatures down a bit more.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...The ridge of high pressure will remain
fixed over the region keeping temperatures well above normal. Dry
conditions will prevail for much of the forecast area but isolated
showers and thunderstorms will be possible for some of the higher
terrain today and Thursday. We did see a couple convective cells
pop up over the North Cascades Tuesday and since there will be a
bit stronger impulse brushing the area today, isolated TS were
added to the forecast there. The better (but still low) chance of
showers and thunderstorms will be across the southeast zones where
monsoonal moisture will push up from the south. Satellite imagery
at 2 am PDT shows this moisture headed our way and models are
showing a better, but still modest, surge for Thursday. Convective
parameters are not impressive but definitely worth a slight chance
of thunder in the forecast. One question mark is the moisture from
the remnants of a tropical system that is streaming into soCal but
models are keeping this well to our south around Nevada. The
increased cloud cover will work to keep daytime temperatures a
couple of degrees cooler than Tuesday, but not much more than
that. The heat will continue on Thursday with valley temps in the
mid 90s to low triple digits. Overnight lows will remain quite
warm, mainly in the 60s, with poor RH recovery, especially for the
mid-slope locations. /Kelch

Thursday night through Tuesday...An Omega blocking pattern will be
over North America through Tuesday. Deep upper lows will be in the
eastern Pacific and another near Hudson bay...with a mean ridge of
high pressure in between. The ridge axis is expected to move far
enough east over the next 24-36 hours for southwest flow to
develop across the Pacific Northwest, this will allow moisture to
move up from the south and southwest. In addition there will be a
series of weak weather disturbances moving trough the region.
While this flow pattern will result in a slight cool down in
temperatures, daily highs will remain 5-10 degrees above seasonal
averages. Moisture advection into the region will help to further
destabilize the atmosphere and in combination with the forcing
provided by the weak disturbances there will be a chance late day
convection each day. This convection will be mainly tied to the
mountain terrain each afternoon, but in reality an afternoon
thunderstorm will be possible anywhere in the forecast area.
/Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Scattered mid/high level clouds will continue to
overspread most sites through the period. However, little to no
precipitation is expected with this cloud cover. ty


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        97  67  96  67  94  65 /   0  10  10   0  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  95  62  94  61  93  62 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        95  56  94  59  92  57 /  10  10  10  10  10  20
Lewiston      102  70 101  71  99  68 /  10  10  10  10  20  20
Colville      102  57 101  58  97  59 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      93  54  92  54  90  56 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        93  61  93  61  91  62 /  10  10  20  10  10  20
Moses Lake    102  64 101  64  99  64 /  10   0   0  10  10  10
Wenatchee     100  71 100  71  98  71 /  10   0   0  10  10  10
Omak          102  65 100  65 100  68 /   0   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 300920
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
220 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny and hot weather will continue over the Inland Northwest
through at least Friday. A gradual increase in clouds over the
next few days may knock temperatures down a few degrees, but mid
90s to low 100s will be common through the work week. The threat
for thunderstorms should increase over the weekend which may
knock temperatures down a bit more.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...The ridge of high pressure will remain
fixed over the region keeping temperatures well above normal. Dry
conditions will prevail for much of the forecast area but isolated
showers and thunderstorms will be possible for some of the higher
terrain today and Thursday. We did see a couple convective cells
pop up over the North Cascades Tuesday and since there will be a
bit stronger impulse brushing the area today, isolated TS were
added to the forecast there. The better (but still low) chance of
showers and thunderstorms will be across the southeast zones where
monsoonal moisture will push up from the south. Satellite imagery
at 2 am PDT shows this moisture headed our way and models are
showing a better, but still modest, surge for Thursday. Convective
parameters are not impressive but definitely worth a slight chance
of thunder in the forecast. One question mark is the moisture from
the remnants of a tropical system that is streaming into soCal but
models are keeping this well to our south around Nevada. The
increased cloud cover will work to keep daytime temperatures a
couple of degrees cooler than Tuesday, but not much more than
that. The heat will continue on Thursday with valley temps in the
mid 90s to low triple digits. Overnight lows will remain quite
warm, mainly in the 60s, with poor RH recovery, especially for the
mid-slope locations. /Kelch

Thursday night through Tuesday...An Omega blocking pattern will be
over North America through Tuesday. Deep upper lows will be in the
eastern Pacific and another near Hudson bay...with a mean ridge of
high pressure in between. The ridge axis is expected to move far
enough east over the next 24-36 hours for southwest flow to
develop across the Pacific Northwest, this will allow moisture to
move up from the south and southwest. In addition there will be a
series of weak weather disturbances moving trough the region.
While this flow pattern will result in a slight cool down in
temperatures, daily highs will remain 5-10 degrees above seasonal
averages. Moisture advection into the region will help to further
destabilize the atmosphere and in combination with the forcing
provided by the weak disturbances there will be a chance late day
convection each day. This convection will be mainly tied to the
mountain terrain each afternoon, but in reality an afternoon
thunderstorm will be possible anywhere in the forecast area.
/Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Scattered mid/high level clouds will continue to
overspread most sites through the period. However, little to no
precipitation is expected with this cloud cover. ty


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        97  67  96  67  94  65 /   0  10  10   0  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  95  62  94  61  93  62 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        95  56  94  59  92  57 /  10  10  10  10  10  20
Lewiston      102  70 101  71  99  68 /  10  10  10  10  20  20
Colville      102  57 101  58  97  59 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      93  54  92  54  90  56 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        93  61  93  61  91  62 /  10  10  20  10  10  20
Moses Lake    102  64 101  64  99  64 /  10   0   0  10  10  10
Wenatchee     100  71 100  71  98  71 /  10   0   0  10  10  10
Omak          102  65 100  65 100  68 /   0   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 300920
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
220 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny and hot weather will continue over the Inland Northwest
through at least Friday. A gradual increase in clouds over the
next few days may knock temperatures down a few degrees, but mid
90s to low 100s will be common through the work week. The threat
for thunderstorms should increase over the weekend which may
knock temperatures down a bit more.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...The ridge of high pressure will remain
fixed over the region keeping temperatures well above normal. Dry
conditions will prevail for much of the forecast area but isolated
showers and thunderstorms will be possible for some of the higher
terrain today and Thursday. We did see a couple convective cells
pop up over the North Cascades Tuesday and since there will be a
bit stronger impulse brushing the area today, isolated TS were
added to the forecast there. The better (but still low) chance of
showers and thunderstorms will be across the southeast zones where
monsoonal moisture will push up from the south. Satellite imagery
at 2 am PDT shows this moisture headed our way and models are
showing a better, but still modest, surge for Thursday. Convective
parameters are not impressive but definitely worth a slight chance
of thunder in the forecast. One question mark is the moisture from
the remnants of a tropical system that is streaming into soCal but
models are keeping this well to our south around Nevada. The
increased cloud cover will work to keep daytime temperatures a
couple of degrees cooler than Tuesday, but not much more than
that. The heat will continue on Thursday with valley temps in the
mid 90s to low triple digits. Overnight lows will remain quite
warm, mainly in the 60s, with poor RH recovery, especially for the
mid-slope locations. /Kelch

Thursday night through Tuesday...An Omega blocking pattern will be
over North America through Tuesday. Deep upper lows will be in the
eastern Pacific and another near Hudson bay...with a mean ridge of
high pressure in between. The ridge axis is expected to move far
enough east over the next 24-36 hours for southwest flow to
develop across the Pacific Northwest, this will allow moisture to
move up from the south and southwest. In addition there will be a
series of weak weather disturbances moving trough the region.
While this flow pattern will result in a slight cool down in
temperatures, daily highs will remain 5-10 degrees above seasonal
averages. Moisture advection into the region will help to further
destabilize the atmosphere and in combination with the forcing
provided by the weak disturbances there will be a chance late day
convection each day. This convection will be mainly tied to the
mountain terrain each afternoon, but in reality an afternoon
thunderstorm will be possible anywhere in the forecast area.
/Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Scattered mid/high level clouds will continue to
overspread most sites through the period. However, little to no
precipitation is expected with this cloud cover. ty


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        97  67  96  67  94  65 /   0  10  10   0  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  95  62  94  61  93  62 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        95  56  94  59  92  57 /  10  10  10  10  10  20
Lewiston      102  70 101  71  99  68 /  10  10  10  10  20  20
Colville      102  57 101  58  97  59 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      93  54  92  54  90  56 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        93  61  93  61  91  62 /  10  10  20  10  10  20
Moses Lake    102  64 101  64  99  64 /  10   0   0  10  10  10
Wenatchee     100  71 100  71  98  71 /  10   0   0  10  10  10
Omak          102  65 100  65 100  68 /   0   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 300555
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1054 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny and hot weather will continue over the Inland Northwest
through at least Friday. A gradual increase in clouds over the
next few days may knock temperatures down a few degrees, but mid
90s to low 100s will be common through the work week. The threat
for thunderstorms should increase over the weekend which may
knock temperatures down a bit more.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms that had developed over some of the
higher terrain this evening has since dissipated with the loss of
daytime heating. There is a weak disturbance that is lifting
north through Oregon, which is mainly spreading mid-level cloud
cover into the region. Not expecting any precipitation with this
feature, but the increased cloud cover will keep low temperatures
in check. Went ahead and nudged readings upwards a degree or so
over many areas, but otherwise the previous forecast had this all
well handled. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Scattered mid/high level clouds will continue to
overspread most sites through the period. However, little to no
precipitation is expected with this cloud cover. ty

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        69  97  68  96  67  93 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  63  95  63  94  62  92 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        59  95  58  94  59  91 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       72 102  71 101  71  98 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Colville       60 102  58 101  59  97 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      56  93  55  92  54  91 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        63  93  61  93  62  90 /   0  10  20  10  10  10
Moses Lake     66 102  64 101  65  99 /   0  10   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      73 100  70 100  72  99 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           68 101  65 100  66  99 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 300555
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1054 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny and hot weather will continue over the Inland Northwest
through at least Friday. A gradual increase in clouds over the
next few days may knock temperatures down a few degrees, but mid
90s to low 100s will be common through the work week. The threat
for thunderstorms should increase over the weekend which may
knock temperatures down a bit more.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms that had developed over some of the
higher terrain this evening has since dissipated with the loss of
daytime heating. There is a weak disturbance that is lifting
north through Oregon, which is mainly spreading mid-level cloud
cover into the region. Not expecting any precipitation with this
feature, but the increased cloud cover will keep low temperatures
in check. Went ahead and nudged readings upwards a degree or so
over many areas, but otherwise the previous forecast had this all
well handled. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Scattered mid/high level clouds will continue to
overspread most sites through the period. However, little to no
precipitation is expected with this cloud cover. ty

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        69  97  68  96  67  93 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  63  95  63  94  62  92 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        59  95  58  94  59  91 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       72 102  71 101  71  98 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Colville       60 102  58 101  59  97 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      56  93  55  92  54  91 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        63  93  61  93  62  90 /   0  10  20  10  10  10
Moses Lake     66 102  64 101  65  99 /   0  10   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      73 100  70 100  72  99 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           68 101  65 100  66  99 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 300446
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
945 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny and hot weather will continue over the Inland Northwest
through at least Friday. A gradual increase in clouds over the
next few days may knock temperatures down a few degrees, but mid
90s to low 100s will be common through the work week. The threat
for thunderstorms should increase over the weekend which may
knock temperatures down a bit more.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms that had developed over some of the
higher terrain this evening has since dissipated with the loss of
daytime heating. There is a weak disturbance that is lifting
north through Oregon, which is mainly spreading mid-level cloud
cover into the region. Not expecting any precipitation with this
feature, but the increased cloud cover will keep low temperatures
in check. Went ahead and nudged readings upwards a degree or so
over many areas, but otherwise the previous forecast had this all
well handled. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at all forecast sites during
this period as strong ridge remains over the region. A weak
disturbance moving across the OR/WA border after 12z will deliver
increasing mid and high level clouds to all sites...but little
else. ty

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        69  97  68  96  67  93 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  63  95  63  94  62  92 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        59  95  58  94  59  91 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       72 102  71 101  71  98 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Colville       60 102  58 101  59  97 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      56  93  55  92  54  91 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        63  93  61  93  62  90 /   0  10  20  10  10  10
Moses Lake     66 102  64 101  65  99 /   0  10   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      73 100  70 100  72  99 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           68 101  65 100  66  99 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 300446
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
945 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny and hot weather will continue over the Inland Northwest
through at least Friday. A gradual increase in clouds over the
next few days may knock temperatures down a few degrees, but mid
90s to low 100s will be common through the work week. The threat
for thunderstorms should increase over the weekend which may
knock temperatures down a bit more.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms that had developed over some of the
higher terrain this evening has since dissipated with the loss of
daytime heating. There is a weak disturbance that is lifting
north through Oregon, which is mainly spreading mid-level cloud
cover into the region. Not expecting any precipitation with this
feature, but the increased cloud cover will keep low temperatures
in check. Went ahead and nudged readings upwards a degree or so
over many areas, but otherwise the previous forecast had this all
well handled. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at all forecast sites during
this period as strong ridge remains over the region. A weak
disturbance moving across the OR/WA border after 12z will deliver
increasing mid and high level clouds to all sites...but little
else. ty

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        69  97  68  96  67  93 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  63  95  63  94  62  92 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        59  95  58  94  59  91 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       72 102  71 101  71  98 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Colville       60 102  58 101  59  97 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      56  93  55  92  54  91 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        63  93  61  93  62  90 /   0  10  20  10  10  10
Moses Lake     66 102  64 101  65  99 /   0  10   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      73 100  70 100  72  99 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           68 101  65 100  66  99 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 300356
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
856 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA LEAVING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES
BRINGS VERY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY LANE COUNTY.
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.UPDATE...THE BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS DRIFTED EAST OF THE
CASCADE CREST AS THE AXIS FROM THE WEAK SHORTWAVE DESCRIBED BELOW
HAS LARGELY CROSSED THE CREST. ADD IN THE PREDOMINANT DRY AIR BEHIND
THE WAVE AND IT LOOKS LIKE CONCERN FOR OUR SIDE HAS ENDED. STILL
MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING...HOWEVER...AS IT APPEARS A FINAL ROUND OF DEVELOPMENT
COULD CLIP THE WILLAMETTE PASS AREA UNDER A STRONG STORM LEFT MOVER
SCENARIO DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...AM SEEING A
STRONGER MARINE PUSH THIS EVENING NOTED BY TEMPERATURES AT KELSO AND
CORVALLIS AIRPORTS LOWERING NEAR TO THE 70 DEGREE MARK ALREADY. THUS
HAVE PRETTY GOOD CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME STRATUS PUSH
UP THE COLUMBIA LIKELY REACHING THE PORTLAND METRO BY OR SLIGHTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE HANDLED THIS PRETTY WELL.
IN ALL...THE GRID PACKAGE IS IN VERY REASONABLE SHAPE WITH MINIMAL
CHANGES REQUIRED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. /JBONK

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 246 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONE
PARTICULARLY LARGE CELL WHICH WAS WARNED ON NEAR MCKENZIE PASS.
RADAR HAIL SIZE ESTIMATES MAXED OUT AT 1.75 INCHES...APPROACHING
PING PONG BALL SIZE...THOUGH ACTUAL HAIL SIZE WAS LIKELY A BIT LOWER
THAN THAT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REALLY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
THIS STORM APPEARS TO HAVE FED A BIT OFF OF CONVERGING UPSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AS IT DRIFTED NORTHWARD. PERHAPS ONE OR TWO
MORE STRONG CELLS COULD DEVELOP SIMILARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE
ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THIS TO BE A WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE.

ANOTHER DRIVER FOR THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WAS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE AND JET MAX PUSHING INTO THE OREGON CASCADES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ALSO MAY HAVE HELPED PUSH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
CELL TO SEVERE LIMITS. AS THE JET MAX MOVES ON AND THE SUN GOES DOWN
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING.

FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE MAIN STORY IS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER INLAND. TEMPS ARE APPROACHING OR
HAVE ALREADY SURPASSED 90 DEGREES AT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS AS OF 2
PM. WHILE TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF NICELY INTO THE 50S IN THE OUTLYING
VALLEYS...URBAN AREAS AND EXPOSED HILLSIDES HAVE SEEN LESS RELIEF
WITH TEMPS ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 60S. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ONLY GRADUALLY
WEAKENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. COASTAL AREAS WILL
REMAIN COOLER AS A WEAK ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW CONTINUES.

RISK FOR THUNDER DECREASES TEMPORARILY WEDNESDAY AS MOST MODELS
DEPICT WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE REGION. STILL CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT THUNDER ON THE CREST AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN DECENT.
MOISTURE APPEARS LESS ABUNDANT THOUGH...AND AGAIN THERE SHOULD BE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING. CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THU/THU
NIGHT AS THE REMNANT MOISTURE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN LIFT
NORTH AND POSSIBLY COMBINE WITH ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES PRESENTLY
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEYOND 130W. FOR NOW...MOST MODELS SUGGEST
THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE ARE TARGETING AREAS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST
AND POINTS EAST. HOWEVER IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS FURTHER
WEST COULD BE AFFECTED IF THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL
IN SOME SE FLOW ALOFT. FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE
CREST OF THE OREGON CASCADES THU/THU NIGHT.  WEAGLE

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE UP THIS RIDGE AND BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE WILL STAY ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST.THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
KEEP HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNTIL THIS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE EITHER BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE COASTLINE
WITH IFR AND LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO WED
MORNING. WITH NW FLOW IN PLACE...EXPECT THE COASTAL STRATUS TO
PUSH PARTIALLY UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA OVERNIGHT. THE STRATUS WILL
LIKELY MAKE IT TO KSPB...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT CLOUDS WILL
REACH AS FAR AS KPDX AND KTTD. THE OTHER INLAND AIRPORTS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH TOMORROW. ANY INLAND STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR BY
ABOUT 16Z TOMORROW. EXPECT THE COAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. STRATUS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE
COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS TOMORROW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW
MVFR OR IFR STRATUS MAY APPROACH THE TERMINAL FROM THE WEST AFTER
12Z...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY 16Z. PYLE

&&

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED MOSTLY JUST SHORT-TERM WINDS FOR THE EVENING
PACKAGE TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBS. WITH BUOY 50 GUSTING TO
ONLY 10-15 KT...WILL CANCEL SCA FOR OFFSHORE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS....BUT WILL LET NEAR SHORE SCA RIDE AS NOS STATIONS AT
TILLAMOOK BAY AND NEWPORT CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY GUST TO 20-30
KT. WILL LEAVE DECISIONS ABOUT SCA FOR WEDNESDAY UP TO THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT AS NEAR SHORE WINDS LOOK MARGINAL WITH OFFSHORE
WINDS INCREASING LATER IN THE PERIOD.

ONLY OTHER CHANGE IS TO SHORTEN PERIODS TO 5-6 SECONDS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON RECENT OBS FROM BUOYS 29 AND 50 AS
WELL AS LATEST GUIDANCE. THIS MEANS SEAS ARE QUITE STEEP WITH 4-5
FEET AT 5-6 SECONDS AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. LONGER TERM FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. BOWEN

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC AS A
THERMAL TROUGH HOLDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS RESULTING
IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OREGON WATERS. GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK.

THE SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL WINDS. STEEP SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
BACKGROUND LONGER PERIOD SEAS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP ON
THE BUOYS...BUT THESE ARE VERY SMALL...1 FOOT OR LESS...AND LESS
SIGNIFICANT TO THE MARINER THAN THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS. THE STEEP SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH AND HAVE
THEREFORE COMBINED THE SEAS IN THE FORECAST. THE SEAS WILL BE THE
STEEPEST WHEN THE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST...DURING THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND NEAR SHORE.
TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 300356
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
856 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA LEAVING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES
BRINGS VERY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY LANE COUNTY.
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.UPDATE...THE BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS DRIFTED EAST OF THE
CASCADE CREST AS THE AXIS FROM THE WEAK SHORTWAVE DESCRIBED BELOW
HAS LARGELY CROSSED THE CREST. ADD IN THE PREDOMINANT DRY AIR BEHIND
THE WAVE AND IT LOOKS LIKE CONCERN FOR OUR SIDE HAS ENDED. STILL
MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING...HOWEVER...AS IT APPEARS A FINAL ROUND OF DEVELOPMENT
COULD CLIP THE WILLAMETTE PASS AREA UNDER A STRONG STORM LEFT MOVER
SCENARIO DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...AM SEEING A
STRONGER MARINE PUSH THIS EVENING NOTED BY TEMPERATURES AT KELSO AND
CORVALLIS AIRPORTS LOWERING NEAR TO THE 70 DEGREE MARK ALREADY. THUS
HAVE PRETTY GOOD CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME STRATUS PUSH
UP THE COLUMBIA LIKELY REACHING THE PORTLAND METRO BY OR SLIGHTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE HANDLED THIS PRETTY WELL.
IN ALL...THE GRID PACKAGE IS IN VERY REASONABLE SHAPE WITH MINIMAL
CHANGES REQUIRED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. /JBONK

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 246 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONE
PARTICULARLY LARGE CELL WHICH WAS WARNED ON NEAR MCKENZIE PASS.
RADAR HAIL SIZE ESTIMATES MAXED OUT AT 1.75 INCHES...APPROACHING
PING PONG BALL SIZE...THOUGH ACTUAL HAIL SIZE WAS LIKELY A BIT LOWER
THAN THAT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REALLY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
THIS STORM APPEARS TO HAVE FED A BIT OFF OF CONVERGING UPSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AS IT DRIFTED NORTHWARD. PERHAPS ONE OR TWO
MORE STRONG CELLS COULD DEVELOP SIMILARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE
ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THIS TO BE A WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE.

ANOTHER DRIVER FOR THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WAS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE AND JET MAX PUSHING INTO THE OREGON CASCADES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ALSO MAY HAVE HELPED PUSH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
CELL TO SEVERE LIMITS. AS THE JET MAX MOVES ON AND THE SUN GOES DOWN
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING.

FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE MAIN STORY IS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER INLAND. TEMPS ARE APPROACHING OR
HAVE ALREADY SURPASSED 90 DEGREES AT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS AS OF 2
PM. WHILE TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF NICELY INTO THE 50S IN THE OUTLYING
VALLEYS...URBAN AREAS AND EXPOSED HILLSIDES HAVE SEEN LESS RELIEF
WITH TEMPS ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 60S. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ONLY GRADUALLY
WEAKENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. COASTAL AREAS WILL
REMAIN COOLER AS A WEAK ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW CONTINUES.

RISK FOR THUNDER DECREASES TEMPORARILY WEDNESDAY AS MOST MODELS
DEPICT WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE REGION. STILL CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT THUNDER ON THE CREST AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN DECENT.
MOISTURE APPEARS LESS ABUNDANT THOUGH...AND AGAIN THERE SHOULD BE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING. CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THU/THU
NIGHT AS THE REMNANT MOISTURE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN LIFT
NORTH AND POSSIBLY COMBINE WITH ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES PRESENTLY
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEYOND 130W. FOR NOW...MOST MODELS SUGGEST
THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE ARE TARGETING AREAS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST
AND POINTS EAST. HOWEVER IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS FURTHER
WEST COULD BE AFFECTED IF THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL
IN SOME SE FLOW ALOFT. FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE
CREST OF THE OREGON CASCADES THU/THU NIGHT.  WEAGLE

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE UP THIS RIDGE AND BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE WILL STAY ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST.THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
KEEP HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNTIL THIS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE EITHER BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE COASTLINE
WITH IFR AND LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO WED
MORNING. WITH NW FLOW IN PLACE...EXPECT THE COASTAL STRATUS TO
PUSH PARTIALLY UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA OVERNIGHT. THE STRATUS WILL
LIKELY MAKE IT TO KSPB...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT CLOUDS WILL
REACH AS FAR AS KPDX AND KTTD. THE OTHER INLAND AIRPORTS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH TOMORROW. ANY INLAND STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR BY
ABOUT 16Z TOMORROW. EXPECT THE COAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. STRATUS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE
COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS TOMORROW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW
MVFR OR IFR STRATUS MAY APPROACH THE TERMINAL FROM THE WEST AFTER
12Z...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY 16Z. PYLE

&&

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED MOSTLY JUST SHORT-TERM WINDS FOR THE EVENING
PACKAGE TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBS. WITH BUOY 50 GUSTING TO
ONLY 10-15 KT...WILL CANCEL SCA FOR OFFSHORE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS....BUT WILL LET NEAR SHORE SCA RIDE AS NOS STATIONS AT
TILLAMOOK BAY AND NEWPORT CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY GUST TO 20-30
KT. WILL LEAVE DECISIONS ABOUT SCA FOR WEDNESDAY UP TO THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT AS NEAR SHORE WINDS LOOK MARGINAL WITH OFFSHORE
WINDS INCREASING LATER IN THE PERIOD.

ONLY OTHER CHANGE IS TO SHORTEN PERIODS TO 5-6 SECONDS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON RECENT OBS FROM BUOYS 29 AND 50 AS
WELL AS LATEST GUIDANCE. THIS MEANS SEAS ARE QUITE STEEP WITH 4-5
FEET AT 5-6 SECONDS AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. LONGER TERM FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. BOWEN

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC AS A
THERMAL TROUGH HOLDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS RESULTING
IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OREGON WATERS. GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK.

THE SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL WINDS. STEEP SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
BACKGROUND LONGER PERIOD SEAS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP ON
THE BUOYS...BUT THESE ARE VERY SMALL...1 FOOT OR LESS...AND LESS
SIGNIFICANT TO THE MARINER THAN THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS. THE STEEP SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH AND HAVE
THEREFORE COMBINED THE SEAS IN THE FORECAST. THE SEAS WILL BE THE
STEEPEST WHEN THE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST...DURING THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND NEAR SHORE.
TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 300356
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
856 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA LEAVING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES
BRINGS VERY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY LANE COUNTY.
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.UPDATE...THE BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS DRIFTED EAST OF THE
CASCADE CREST AS THE AXIS FROM THE WEAK SHORTWAVE DESCRIBED BELOW
HAS LARGELY CROSSED THE CREST. ADD IN THE PREDOMINANT DRY AIR BEHIND
THE WAVE AND IT LOOKS LIKE CONCERN FOR OUR SIDE HAS ENDED. STILL
MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING...HOWEVER...AS IT APPEARS A FINAL ROUND OF DEVELOPMENT
COULD CLIP THE WILLAMETTE PASS AREA UNDER A STRONG STORM LEFT MOVER
SCENARIO DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...AM SEEING A
STRONGER MARINE PUSH THIS EVENING NOTED BY TEMPERATURES AT KELSO AND
CORVALLIS AIRPORTS LOWERING NEAR TO THE 70 DEGREE MARK ALREADY. THUS
HAVE PRETTY GOOD CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME STRATUS PUSH
UP THE COLUMBIA LIKELY REACHING THE PORTLAND METRO BY OR SLIGHTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE HANDLED THIS PRETTY WELL.
IN ALL...THE GRID PACKAGE IS IN VERY REASONABLE SHAPE WITH MINIMAL
CHANGES REQUIRED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. /JBONK

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 246 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONE
PARTICULARLY LARGE CELL WHICH WAS WARNED ON NEAR MCKENZIE PASS.
RADAR HAIL SIZE ESTIMATES MAXED OUT AT 1.75 INCHES...APPROACHING
PING PONG BALL SIZE...THOUGH ACTUAL HAIL SIZE WAS LIKELY A BIT LOWER
THAN THAT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REALLY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
THIS STORM APPEARS TO HAVE FED A BIT OFF OF CONVERGING UPSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AS IT DRIFTED NORTHWARD. PERHAPS ONE OR TWO
MORE STRONG CELLS COULD DEVELOP SIMILARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE
ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THIS TO BE A WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE.

ANOTHER DRIVER FOR THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WAS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE AND JET MAX PUSHING INTO THE OREGON CASCADES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ALSO MAY HAVE HELPED PUSH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
CELL TO SEVERE LIMITS. AS THE JET MAX MOVES ON AND THE SUN GOES DOWN
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING.

FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE MAIN STORY IS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER INLAND. TEMPS ARE APPROACHING OR
HAVE ALREADY SURPASSED 90 DEGREES AT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS AS OF 2
PM. WHILE TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF NICELY INTO THE 50S IN THE OUTLYING
VALLEYS...URBAN AREAS AND EXPOSED HILLSIDES HAVE SEEN LESS RELIEF
WITH TEMPS ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 60S. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ONLY GRADUALLY
WEAKENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. COASTAL AREAS WILL
REMAIN COOLER AS A WEAK ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW CONTINUES.

RISK FOR THUNDER DECREASES TEMPORARILY WEDNESDAY AS MOST MODELS
DEPICT WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE REGION. STILL CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT THUNDER ON THE CREST AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN DECENT.
MOISTURE APPEARS LESS ABUNDANT THOUGH...AND AGAIN THERE SHOULD BE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING. CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THU/THU
NIGHT AS THE REMNANT MOISTURE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN LIFT
NORTH AND POSSIBLY COMBINE WITH ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES PRESENTLY
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEYOND 130W. FOR NOW...MOST MODELS SUGGEST
THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE ARE TARGETING AREAS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST
AND POINTS EAST. HOWEVER IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS FURTHER
WEST COULD BE AFFECTED IF THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL
IN SOME SE FLOW ALOFT. FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE
CREST OF THE OREGON CASCADES THU/THU NIGHT.  WEAGLE

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE UP THIS RIDGE AND BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE WILL STAY ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST.THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
KEEP HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNTIL THIS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE EITHER BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE COASTLINE
WITH IFR AND LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO WED
MORNING. WITH NW FLOW IN PLACE...EXPECT THE COASTAL STRATUS TO
PUSH PARTIALLY UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA OVERNIGHT. THE STRATUS WILL
LIKELY MAKE IT TO KSPB...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT CLOUDS WILL
REACH AS FAR AS KPDX AND KTTD. THE OTHER INLAND AIRPORTS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH TOMORROW. ANY INLAND STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR BY
ABOUT 16Z TOMORROW. EXPECT THE COAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. STRATUS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE
COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS TOMORROW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW
MVFR OR IFR STRATUS MAY APPROACH THE TERMINAL FROM THE WEST AFTER
12Z...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY 16Z. PYLE

&&

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED MOSTLY JUST SHORT-TERM WINDS FOR THE EVENING
PACKAGE TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBS. WITH BUOY 50 GUSTING TO
ONLY 10-15 KT...WILL CANCEL SCA FOR OFFSHORE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS....BUT WILL LET NEAR SHORE SCA RIDE AS NOS STATIONS AT
TILLAMOOK BAY AND NEWPORT CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY GUST TO 20-30
KT. WILL LEAVE DECISIONS ABOUT SCA FOR WEDNESDAY UP TO THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT AS NEAR SHORE WINDS LOOK MARGINAL WITH OFFSHORE
WINDS INCREASING LATER IN THE PERIOD.

ONLY OTHER CHANGE IS TO SHORTEN PERIODS TO 5-6 SECONDS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON RECENT OBS FROM BUOYS 29 AND 50 AS
WELL AS LATEST GUIDANCE. THIS MEANS SEAS ARE QUITE STEEP WITH 4-5
FEET AT 5-6 SECONDS AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. LONGER TERM FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. BOWEN

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC AS A
THERMAL TROUGH HOLDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS RESULTING
IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OREGON WATERS. GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK.

THE SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL WINDS. STEEP SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
BACKGROUND LONGER PERIOD SEAS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP ON
THE BUOYS...BUT THESE ARE VERY SMALL...1 FOOT OR LESS...AND LESS
SIGNIFICANT TO THE MARINER THAN THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS. THE STEEP SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH AND HAVE
THEREFORE COMBINED THE SEAS IN THE FORECAST. THE SEAS WILL BE THE
STEEPEST WHEN THE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST...DURING THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND NEAR SHORE.
TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&



000
FXUS66 KSEW 300341
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS FROM A 5940 HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IS STILL GENERALLY WEAK...BUT
THERE IS A STRONGER SEABREEZE THIS EVENING WITH GALE WESTERLIES
BLOWING IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. THE FORECAST AREA HAS MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR THE MARINE STRATUS HUGGING THE COAST.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
STRATUS WILL PUSH WEAKLY INLAND TONIGHT -- THROUGH THE STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA TO WHIDBEY ISLAND AND THE SAN JUANS...AND THROUGH THE
CHEHALIS GAP TO THE SOUTH PUGET SOUND REGION AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. THE SEATTLE AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...
AND THE STRATUS THAT DOES MOVE INLAND SHOULD BURN OFF MID TO LATE
MORNING. SO WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER GENERALLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST AND MID 70S TO MID 80S INLAND.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION NOTED BELOW.

MONSOON MOISTURE ROTATING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER
HIGH HAS RESULTED IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS NEAR AS THE OREGON
CASCADES THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. AND THIS EVENING SOME CONVECTION
DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES ALONG THE BORDER OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON. WE CAN BE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO JUST MISS OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. HOWEVER SOME MODEL RUNS DO SHOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WASHINGTON CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.   MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...HERE IS THE LONG TERM SECTION FROM THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST DISCUSSION -- THE ECMWF/GFS/AND TO SOME EXTENT THE CANADIAN
ARE SLOW TO SHIFT THE SHORT WAVE OUT OF THE AREA. JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING
NEAR THE CREST. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT THE WRFGFS AND EXTENSION MODEL
MOST THE QPF DOES INDEED STAY ALONG THE CREST OR ON THE EAST SIDE
THROUGH MONDAY. WITH MOST THE ACTIVITY LIKELY TO BE JUST OUTSIDE OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL INDICATE INCREASING AFTERNOON/EVENING CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND LEAVE IT AT THAT FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH IMPACT ON THE LOWLANDS. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING CLOUDS IN FURTHER OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SHOULD BURN OFF BY
MIDDAY. HIGHS MAY STILL TOP OUT NEAR 80 GIVEN THE 500 MB HEIGHTS
STILL ABOVE 5800M EVEN IF THE WEAK UPPER LOW LIFTS ACROSS.

AFTER THE LOW KICKS OUT THE RIDGE REMAINS FLAT AND THERE IS A CHANCE
OF WLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WOULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES
AND BRING MARINE AIR FURTHER INLAND. BUT SOME MODELS MAINTAIN A
STUBBORNLY STRONG RIDGE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. WILL GO WITH A
COMPROMISE AND KEEP DRY WEATHER AND HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
WHICH HAS BEEN THE DOMINATE PATTERN. MERCER

&&

.CLIMATE...TODAY MARKS 5 YEARS SINCE THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS SET AT SEA-TAC WAS SET ALONG WITH OTHER RECORD
HIGHS. SEATTLE(SEA-TAC) 103...NWS SEATTLE 105...CENTRALIA
107...OLYMPIA 104...ELMA 104...EVERETT 100...BELLINGHAM
96...ABERDEEN 95.

IN ADDITION...A TOTAL OF 0.31 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED ON
THIS DAY SINCE RECORDS STARTED AT SEATTLE-TACOMA AIRPORT IN 1945
MAKING THIS THE DRIEST DAY OF THE YEAR IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL
FOR THE DAY AT SEA-TAC.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH SW
FLOW ALOFT OVER WA. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE AIR IS DRY AND
STABLE EXCEPT FOR A SHALLOW COASTAL MARINE LAYER. SOME AREAS OF FOG
OR LOW CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED IN AS FAR AS WRN WHIDBEY ISLAND THIS
EVENING...SO AREAS OF MORNING FOG ARE A GOOD BET UP AROUND WHIDBEY
AND IN THE STRAIT. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG OR LOW CLOUDS INTO OLYMPIA
AND SHELTON AS WELL BY DAYBREAK...THAT WILL LAST A FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE...MORE SUNNY WEATHER ON TAP ON WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR THE
LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE OCEAN BEACHES.

KSEA...CLEAR WITH NLY BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH LOWER PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE VARYING DEGREES OF ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS STRONGER THIS EVENING AND A
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN
DE FUCA...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ADJACENT TO THE GALE WARNING
AREA...THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT...THE NORTHERN INLAND
WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY INLET. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE WED THROUGH SAT.
SLIGHTLY WEAKER ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL STILL GIVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST
      ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT
      OF JUAN DE FUCA...ADMIRALTY INLET...AND NORTHERN INLAND
      WATERS.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 300341
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS FROM A 5940 HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IS STILL GENERALLY WEAK...BUT
THERE IS A STRONGER SEABREEZE THIS EVENING WITH GALE WESTERLIES
BLOWING IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. THE FORECAST AREA HAS MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR THE MARINE STRATUS HUGGING THE COAST.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
STRATUS WILL PUSH WEAKLY INLAND TONIGHT -- THROUGH THE STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA TO WHIDBEY ISLAND AND THE SAN JUANS...AND THROUGH THE
CHEHALIS GAP TO THE SOUTH PUGET SOUND REGION AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. THE SEATTLE AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...
AND THE STRATUS THAT DOES MOVE INLAND SHOULD BURN OFF MID TO LATE
MORNING. SO WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER GENERALLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST AND MID 70S TO MID 80S INLAND.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION NOTED BELOW.

MONSOON MOISTURE ROTATING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER
HIGH HAS RESULTED IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS NEAR AS THE OREGON
CASCADES THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. AND THIS EVENING SOME CONVECTION
DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES ALONG THE BORDER OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON. WE CAN BE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO JUST MISS OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. HOWEVER SOME MODEL RUNS DO SHOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WASHINGTON CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.   MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...HERE IS THE LONG TERM SECTION FROM THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST DISCUSSION -- THE ECMWF/GFS/AND TO SOME EXTENT THE CANADIAN
ARE SLOW TO SHIFT THE SHORT WAVE OUT OF THE AREA. JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING
NEAR THE CREST. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT THE WRFGFS AND EXTENSION MODEL
MOST THE QPF DOES INDEED STAY ALONG THE CREST OR ON THE EAST SIDE
THROUGH MONDAY. WITH MOST THE ACTIVITY LIKELY TO BE JUST OUTSIDE OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL INDICATE INCREASING AFTERNOON/EVENING CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND LEAVE IT AT THAT FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH IMPACT ON THE LOWLANDS. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING CLOUDS IN FURTHER OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SHOULD BURN OFF BY
MIDDAY. HIGHS MAY STILL TOP OUT NEAR 80 GIVEN THE 500 MB HEIGHTS
STILL ABOVE 5800M EVEN IF THE WEAK UPPER LOW LIFTS ACROSS.

AFTER THE LOW KICKS OUT THE RIDGE REMAINS FLAT AND THERE IS A CHANCE
OF WLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WOULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES
AND BRING MARINE AIR FURTHER INLAND. BUT SOME MODELS MAINTAIN A
STUBBORNLY STRONG RIDGE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. WILL GO WITH A
COMPROMISE AND KEEP DRY WEATHER AND HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
WHICH HAS BEEN THE DOMINATE PATTERN. MERCER

&&

.CLIMATE...TODAY MARKS 5 YEARS SINCE THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS SET AT SEA-TAC WAS SET ALONG WITH OTHER RECORD
HIGHS. SEATTLE(SEA-TAC) 103...NWS SEATTLE 105...CENTRALIA
107...OLYMPIA 104...ELMA 104...EVERETT 100...BELLINGHAM
96...ABERDEEN 95.

IN ADDITION...A TOTAL OF 0.31 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED ON
THIS DAY SINCE RECORDS STARTED AT SEATTLE-TACOMA AIRPORT IN 1945
MAKING THIS THE DRIEST DAY OF THE YEAR IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL
FOR THE DAY AT SEA-TAC.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH SW
FLOW ALOFT OVER WA. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE AIR IS DRY AND
STABLE EXCEPT FOR A SHALLOW COASTAL MARINE LAYER. SOME AREAS OF FOG
OR LOW CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED IN AS FAR AS WRN WHIDBEY ISLAND THIS
EVENING...SO AREAS OF MORNING FOG ARE A GOOD BET UP AROUND WHIDBEY
AND IN THE STRAIT. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG OR LOW CLOUDS INTO OLYMPIA
AND SHELTON AS WELL BY DAYBREAK...THAT WILL LAST A FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE...MORE SUNNY WEATHER ON TAP ON WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR THE
LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE OCEAN BEACHES.

KSEA...CLEAR WITH NLY BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH LOWER PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE VARYING DEGREES OF ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS STRONGER THIS EVENING AND A
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN
DE FUCA...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ADJACENT TO THE GALE WARNING
AREA...THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT...THE NORTHERN INLAND
WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY INLET. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE WED THROUGH SAT.
SLIGHTLY WEAKER ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL STILL GIVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST
      ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT
      OF JUAN DE FUCA...ADMIRALTY INLET...AND NORTHERN INLAND
      WATERS.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 300341
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS FROM A 5940 HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IS STILL GENERALLY WEAK...BUT
THERE IS A STRONGER SEABREEZE THIS EVENING WITH GALE WESTERLIES
BLOWING IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. THE FORECAST AREA HAS MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR THE MARINE STRATUS HUGGING THE COAST.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
STRATUS WILL PUSH WEAKLY INLAND TONIGHT -- THROUGH THE STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA TO WHIDBEY ISLAND AND THE SAN JUANS...AND THROUGH THE
CHEHALIS GAP TO THE SOUTH PUGET SOUND REGION AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. THE SEATTLE AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...
AND THE STRATUS THAT DOES MOVE INLAND SHOULD BURN OFF MID TO LATE
MORNING. SO WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER GENERALLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST AND MID 70S TO MID 80S INLAND.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION NOTED BELOW.

MONSOON MOISTURE ROTATING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER
HIGH HAS RESULTED IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS NEAR AS THE OREGON
CASCADES THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. AND THIS EVENING SOME CONVECTION
DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES ALONG THE BORDER OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON. WE CAN BE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO JUST MISS OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. HOWEVER SOME MODEL RUNS DO SHOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WASHINGTON CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.   MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...HERE IS THE LONG TERM SECTION FROM THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST DISCUSSION -- THE ECMWF/GFS/AND TO SOME EXTENT THE CANADIAN
ARE SLOW TO SHIFT THE SHORT WAVE OUT OF THE AREA. JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING
NEAR THE CREST. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT THE WRFGFS AND EXTENSION MODEL
MOST THE QPF DOES INDEED STAY ALONG THE CREST OR ON THE EAST SIDE
THROUGH MONDAY. WITH MOST THE ACTIVITY LIKELY TO BE JUST OUTSIDE OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL INDICATE INCREASING AFTERNOON/EVENING CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND LEAVE IT AT THAT FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH IMPACT ON THE LOWLANDS. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING CLOUDS IN FURTHER OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SHOULD BURN OFF BY
MIDDAY. HIGHS MAY STILL TOP OUT NEAR 80 GIVEN THE 500 MB HEIGHTS
STILL ABOVE 5800M EVEN IF THE WEAK UPPER LOW LIFTS ACROSS.

AFTER THE LOW KICKS OUT THE RIDGE REMAINS FLAT AND THERE IS A CHANCE
OF WLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WOULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES
AND BRING MARINE AIR FURTHER INLAND. BUT SOME MODELS MAINTAIN A
STUBBORNLY STRONG RIDGE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. WILL GO WITH A
COMPROMISE AND KEEP DRY WEATHER AND HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
WHICH HAS BEEN THE DOMINATE PATTERN. MERCER

&&

.CLIMATE...TODAY MARKS 5 YEARS SINCE THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS SET AT SEA-TAC WAS SET ALONG WITH OTHER RECORD
HIGHS. SEATTLE(SEA-TAC) 103...NWS SEATTLE 105...CENTRALIA
107...OLYMPIA 104...ELMA 104...EVERETT 100...BELLINGHAM
96...ABERDEEN 95.

IN ADDITION...A TOTAL OF 0.31 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED ON
THIS DAY SINCE RECORDS STARTED AT SEATTLE-TACOMA AIRPORT IN 1945
MAKING THIS THE DRIEST DAY OF THE YEAR IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL
FOR THE DAY AT SEA-TAC.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH SW
FLOW ALOFT OVER WA. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE AIR IS DRY AND
STABLE EXCEPT FOR A SHALLOW COASTAL MARINE LAYER. SOME AREAS OF FOG
OR LOW CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED IN AS FAR AS WRN WHIDBEY ISLAND THIS
EVENING...SO AREAS OF MORNING FOG ARE A GOOD BET UP AROUND WHIDBEY
AND IN THE STRAIT. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG OR LOW CLOUDS INTO OLYMPIA
AND SHELTON AS WELL BY DAYBREAK...THAT WILL LAST A FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE...MORE SUNNY WEATHER ON TAP ON WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR THE
LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE OCEAN BEACHES.

KSEA...CLEAR WITH NLY BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH LOWER PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE VARYING DEGREES OF ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS STRONGER THIS EVENING AND A
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN
DE FUCA...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ADJACENT TO THE GALE WARNING
AREA...THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT...THE NORTHERN INLAND
WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY INLET. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE WED THROUGH SAT.
SLIGHTLY WEAKER ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL STILL GIVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST
      ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT
      OF JUAN DE FUCA...ADMIRALTY INLET...AND NORTHERN INLAND
      WATERS.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 300341
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS FROM A 5940 HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IS STILL GENERALLY WEAK...BUT
THERE IS A STRONGER SEABREEZE THIS EVENING WITH GALE WESTERLIES
BLOWING IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. THE FORECAST AREA HAS MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR THE MARINE STRATUS HUGGING THE COAST.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
STRATUS WILL PUSH WEAKLY INLAND TONIGHT -- THROUGH THE STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA TO WHIDBEY ISLAND AND THE SAN JUANS...AND THROUGH THE
CHEHALIS GAP TO THE SOUTH PUGET SOUND REGION AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. THE SEATTLE AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...
AND THE STRATUS THAT DOES MOVE INLAND SHOULD BURN OFF MID TO LATE
MORNING. SO WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER GENERALLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST AND MID 70S TO MID 80S INLAND.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION NOTED BELOW.

MONSOON MOISTURE ROTATING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER
HIGH HAS RESULTED IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS NEAR AS THE OREGON
CASCADES THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. AND THIS EVENING SOME CONVECTION
DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES ALONG THE BORDER OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON. WE CAN BE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO JUST MISS OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. HOWEVER SOME MODEL RUNS DO SHOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WASHINGTON CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.   MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...HERE IS THE LONG TERM SECTION FROM THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST DISCUSSION -- THE ECMWF/GFS/AND TO SOME EXTENT THE CANADIAN
ARE SLOW TO SHIFT THE SHORT WAVE OUT OF THE AREA. JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING
NEAR THE CREST. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT THE WRFGFS AND EXTENSION MODEL
MOST THE QPF DOES INDEED STAY ALONG THE CREST OR ON THE EAST SIDE
THROUGH MONDAY. WITH MOST THE ACTIVITY LIKELY TO BE JUST OUTSIDE OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL INDICATE INCREASING AFTERNOON/EVENING CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND LEAVE IT AT THAT FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH IMPACT ON THE LOWLANDS. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING CLOUDS IN FURTHER OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SHOULD BURN OFF BY
MIDDAY. HIGHS MAY STILL TOP OUT NEAR 80 GIVEN THE 500 MB HEIGHTS
STILL ABOVE 5800M EVEN IF THE WEAK UPPER LOW LIFTS ACROSS.

AFTER THE LOW KICKS OUT THE RIDGE REMAINS FLAT AND THERE IS A CHANCE
OF WLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WOULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES
AND BRING MARINE AIR FURTHER INLAND. BUT SOME MODELS MAINTAIN A
STUBBORNLY STRONG RIDGE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. WILL GO WITH A
COMPROMISE AND KEEP DRY WEATHER AND HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
WHICH HAS BEEN THE DOMINATE PATTERN. MERCER

&&

.CLIMATE...TODAY MARKS 5 YEARS SINCE THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS SET AT SEA-TAC WAS SET ALONG WITH OTHER RECORD
HIGHS. SEATTLE(SEA-TAC) 103...NWS SEATTLE 105...CENTRALIA
107...OLYMPIA 104...ELMA 104...EVERETT 100...BELLINGHAM
96...ABERDEEN 95.

IN ADDITION...A TOTAL OF 0.31 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED ON
THIS DAY SINCE RECORDS STARTED AT SEATTLE-TACOMA AIRPORT IN 1945
MAKING THIS THE DRIEST DAY OF THE YEAR IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL
FOR THE DAY AT SEA-TAC.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH SW
FLOW ALOFT OVER WA. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE AIR IS DRY AND
STABLE EXCEPT FOR A SHALLOW COASTAL MARINE LAYER. SOME AREAS OF FOG
OR LOW CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED IN AS FAR AS WRN WHIDBEY ISLAND THIS
EVENING...SO AREAS OF MORNING FOG ARE A GOOD BET UP AROUND WHIDBEY
AND IN THE STRAIT. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG OR LOW CLOUDS INTO OLYMPIA
AND SHELTON AS WELL BY DAYBREAK...THAT WILL LAST A FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE...MORE SUNNY WEATHER ON TAP ON WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR THE
LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE OCEAN BEACHES.

KSEA...CLEAR WITH NLY BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH LOWER PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE VARYING DEGREES OF ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS STRONGER THIS EVENING AND A
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN
DE FUCA...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ADJACENT TO THE GALE WARNING
AREA...THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT...THE NORTHERN INLAND
WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY INLET. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE WED THROUGH SAT.
SLIGHTLY WEAKER ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL STILL GIVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST
      ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT
      OF JUAN DE FUCA...ADMIRALTY INLET...AND NORTHERN INLAND
      WATERS.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 292215
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM DAYS TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW CLOUDS
ALONG THE COAST TO INTRUDE THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND
LOWER CHEHALIS GAP DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS GREATER PUGET SOUND WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WRN U.S.
WILL KEEP DRY SW FLOW ALOFT OVER WA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN LAST
EVENING SO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE
STRAIT...AROUND THE EAST ENTRANCE...AND THROUGH THE LOWER CHEHALIS
GAP INTO ABOUT SHELTON. BUT MARINE AIR WILL LIKELY NOT FULLY MAKE IT
INTO THE SOUND SO TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF WARM AND SHOULD REACH
THE LOW TO MID 80S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MODELS HAVE LATCHED ON TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE LIFTING NWD
TOWARD THE PAC NOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND SKIRTING E OF THE CASCADES ON
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY HELP INDUCE STRONGER LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
BUT HOW STRONG OF A SWLY PUSH DEVELOPS IS IN QUESTION. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD COME DOWN AT LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES BUT PROBABLY STILL HOVER
NEAR THE LOW 80S...UNLESS THE PUSH IS QUITE STRONG.

ANOTHER EFFECT FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE TO GENERATE WEAK INSTABILITY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE TRAJECTORY OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THERE WILL BE JUST CUMULUS
OVER THE CASCADES/OLYMPICS OR POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. MODELS
STARTED PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE LAST NIGHT AND MOST OF THEM AGREE
THAT IT AFFECTS OUR REGION BUT EACH DIFFERENTLY. THE NAM-12 AND
CANADIAN BOTH INDICATE THE VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY LIFT
MAINLY NE THROUGH ERN OREGON AND ERN WA. THIS MIGHT RESULT IN SOME
CU OVER THE CASCADES BUT PROBABLY NOT MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE CANADIAN HAS A TRAILING TROUGH THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN
THUNDER BY SATURDAY BUT THAT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF AND GFS
ARE STRONGER WITH THIS SHORT WAVE WHICH ORIGINATED FROM THE TROPICS.
THESE TWO MODELS HAVE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE CASCADES AND
OLYMPICS AS THE TROUGH LIFTS MORE NWD THAN THE OTHER MODELS. SO THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HOW TO WEIGH THE MODELS AND WHETHER OR NOT TO
INTRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKING AT THE VAST DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 5
DIFFERENT MODELS MY CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW ON WHERE THIS SHORT WAVE
WILL TRACK. DECIDED THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS IS TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE CASCADES/OLYMPICS DURING THE AFTERNOON EVENING HOURS
IMPLYING CUMULUS BUILD UP. WILL WAIT FOR MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE
INTRODUCING ANY THREAT OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...THE ECMWF/GFS/AND TO SOME EXTENT THE CANADIAN ARE SLOW
TO SHIFT THE SHORT WAVE OUT OF THE AREA. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
LIFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING NEAR THE CREST.
HOWEVER...LOOKING AT THE WRFGFS AND EXTENSION MODEL MOST THE QPF
DOES INDEED STAY ALONG THE CREST OR ON THE EAST SIDE THROUGH
MONDAY. WITH MOST THE ACTIVITY LIKELY TO BE JUST OUTSIDE OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL INDICATE INCREASING AFTERNOON/EVENING CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND LEAVE IT AT THAT FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH IMPACT ON THE LOWLANDS. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING CLOUDS IN FURTHER OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SHOULD BURN OFF BY
MIDDAY. HIGHS MAY STILL TOP OUT NEAR 80 GIVEN THE 500 MB HEIGHTS
STILL ABOVE 5800M EVEN IF THE WEAK UPPER LOW LIFTS ACROSS.

AFTER THE LOW KICKS OUT THE RIDGE REMAINS FLAT AND THERE IS A CHANCE
OF WLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WOULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES
AND BRING MARINE AIR FURTHER INLAND. BUT SOME MODELS MAINTAIN A
STUBBORNLY STRONG RIDGE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. WILL GO WITH A
COMPROMISE AND KEEP DRY WEATHER AND HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
WHICH HAS BEEN THE DOMINATE PATTERN. MERCER

&&

.CLIMATE...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TODAY MARKS 5 YEARS SINCE THE
ALL TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS SET AT SEA-TAC WAS SET ALONG
WITH OTHER RECORD HIGHS. SEATTLE(SEA-TAC) 103...NWS SEATTLE
105...CENTRALIA 107...OLYMPIA 104...ELMA 104...EVERETT
100...BELLINGHAM 96...ABERDEEN 95.

IN ADDITION...A TOTAL OF 0.31 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED ON
THIS DAY SINCE RECORDS STARTED AT SEATTLE-TACOMA AIRPORT IN 1945
MAKING THIS THE DRIEST DAY OF THE YEAR IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL
FOR THE DAY AT SEA-TAC.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST COMBINED WITH A TROUGH ALONG ABOUT 140W WILL GIVE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURE EAST
OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THE AIR MASS IS
DRY AND STABLE...EXCEPT FOR A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST.

THE MARINE LAYER WILL ONTO THE WASHINGTON COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING
THEN EAST THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND IN THROUGH THE
CHEHALIS GAP OVERNIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONGER THAN LAST
EVENING AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRATUS AND FOG PUSHING INLAND
FARTHER THAN THIS MORNING. THE TERMINAL MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED
WILL BE KPAE...BUT KOLM MAY ALSO GET SOME FOG AND STRATUS WED
MORNING. ANY LOCATION GETTING STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY SEE IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS WED MORNING WHILE OTHER AREAS WILL
REMAIN CLEAR.  ALBRECHT

KSEA...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT FOG OR STRATUS WILL REACH THE TERMINAL WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT IT WILL LIKELY GET TO WITHIN 10 NM OF THE TERMINAL
OVER THE PUGET SOUND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL INCLUDE A
FEW002 CLOUD LAYER IN THE MORNING PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. NW
WIND 6 TO 9 KT WILL VEER TO NE 5-7 KT AFTER 04Z THIS EVENING THEN
BECOME VARIABLE AFTER 08Z. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS COMBINED
WITH LOWER PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE VARYING DEGREES
OF ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THAN IT HAS BEEN OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS. SO...A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 5 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO THE GALE WARNING AREA...THE WEST
ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT...THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY
INLET. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL GIVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE WED THROUGH SAT. SLIGHTLY
WEAKER ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL STILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST
      ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT
      OF JUAN DE FUCA...ADMIRALTY INLET...AND NORTHERN INLAND
      WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML














000
FXUS66 KSEW 292215
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM DAYS TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW CLOUDS
ALONG THE COAST TO INTRUDE THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND
LOWER CHEHALIS GAP DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS GREATER PUGET SOUND WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WRN U.S.
WILL KEEP DRY SW FLOW ALOFT OVER WA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN LAST
EVENING SO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE
STRAIT...AROUND THE EAST ENTRANCE...AND THROUGH THE LOWER CHEHALIS
GAP INTO ABOUT SHELTON. BUT MARINE AIR WILL LIKELY NOT FULLY MAKE IT
INTO THE SOUND SO TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF WARM AND SHOULD REACH
THE LOW TO MID 80S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MODELS HAVE LATCHED ON TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE LIFTING NWD
TOWARD THE PAC NOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND SKIRTING E OF THE CASCADES ON
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY HELP INDUCE STRONGER LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
BUT HOW STRONG OF A SWLY PUSH DEVELOPS IS IN QUESTION. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD COME DOWN AT LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES BUT PROBABLY STILL HOVER
NEAR THE LOW 80S...UNLESS THE PUSH IS QUITE STRONG.

ANOTHER EFFECT FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE TO GENERATE WEAK INSTABILITY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE TRAJECTORY OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THERE WILL BE JUST CUMULUS
OVER THE CASCADES/OLYMPICS OR POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. MODELS
STARTED PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE LAST NIGHT AND MOST OF THEM AGREE
THAT IT AFFECTS OUR REGION BUT EACH DIFFERENTLY. THE NAM-12 AND
CANADIAN BOTH INDICATE THE VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY LIFT
MAINLY NE THROUGH ERN OREGON AND ERN WA. THIS MIGHT RESULT IN SOME
CU OVER THE CASCADES BUT PROBABLY NOT MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE CANADIAN HAS A TRAILING TROUGH THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN
THUNDER BY SATURDAY BUT THAT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF AND GFS
ARE STRONGER WITH THIS SHORT WAVE WHICH ORIGINATED FROM THE TROPICS.
THESE TWO MODELS HAVE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE CASCADES AND
OLYMPICS AS THE TROUGH LIFTS MORE NWD THAN THE OTHER MODELS. SO THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HOW TO WEIGH THE MODELS AND WHETHER OR NOT TO
INTRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKING AT THE VAST DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 5
DIFFERENT MODELS MY CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW ON WHERE THIS SHORT WAVE
WILL TRACK. DECIDED THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS IS TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE CASCADES/OLYMPICS DURING THE AFTERNOON EVENING HOURS
IMPLYING CUMULUS BUILD UP. WILL WAIT FOR MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE
INTRODUCING ANY THREAT OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...THE ECMWF/GFS/AND TO SOME EXTENT THE CANADIAN ARE SLOW
TO SHIFT THE SHORT WAVE OUT OF THE AREA. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
LIFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING NEAR THE CREST.
HOWEVER...LOOKING AT THE WRFGFS AND EXTENSION MODEL MOST THE QPF
DOES INDEED STAY ALONG THE CREST OR ON THE EAST SIDE THROUGH
MONDAY. WITH MOST THE ACTIVITY LIKELY TO BE JUST OUTSIDE OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL INDICATE INCREASING AFTERNOON/EVENING CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND LEAVE IT AT THAT FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH IMPACT ON THE LOWLANDS. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING CLOUDS IN FURTHER OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SHOULD BURN OFF BY
MIDDAY. HIGHS MAY STILL TOP OUT NEAR 80 GIVEN THE 500 MB HEIGHTS
STILL ABOVE 5800M EVEN IF THE WEAK UPPER LOW LIFTS ACROSS.

AFTER THE LOW KICKS OUT THE RIDGE REMAINS FLAT AND THERE IS A CHANCE
OF WLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WOULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES
AND BRING MARINE AIR FURTHER INLAND. BUT SOME MODELS MAINTAIN A
STUBBORNLY STRONG RIDGE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. WILL GO WITH A
COMPROMISE AND KEEP DRY WEATHER AND HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
WHICH HAS BEEN THE DOMINATE PATTERN. MERCER

&&

.CLIMATE...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TODAY MARKS 5 YEARS SINCE THE
ALL TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS SET AT SEA-TAC WAS SET ALONG
WITH OTHER RECORD HIGHS. SEATTLE(SEA-TAC) 103...NWS SEATTLE
105...CENTRALIA 107...OLYMPIA 104...ELMA 104...EVERETT
100...BELLINGHAM 96...ABERDEEN 95.

IN ADDITION...A TOTAL OF 0.31 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED ON
THIS DAY SINCE RECORDS STARTED AT SEATTLE-TACOMA AIRPORT IN 1945
MAKING THIS THE DRIEST DAY OF THE YEAR IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL
FOR THE DAY AT SEA-TAC.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST COMBINED WITH A TROUGH ALONG ABOUT 140W WILL GIVE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURE EAST
OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THE AIR MASS IS
DRY AND STABLE...EXCEPT FOR A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST.

THE MARINE LAYER WILL ONTO THE WASHINGTON COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING
THEN EAST THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND IN THROUGH THE
CHEHALIS GAP OVERNIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONGER THAN LAST
EVENING AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRATUS AND FOG PUSHING INLAND
FARTHER THAN THIS MORNING. THE TERMINAL MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED
WILL BE KPAE...BUT KOLM MAY ALSO GET SOME FOG AND STRATUS WED
MORNING. ANY LOCATION GETTING STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY SEE IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS WED MORNING WHILE OTHER AREAS WILL
REMAIN CLEAR.  ALBRECHT

KSEA...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT FOG OR STRATUS WILL REACH THE TERMINAL WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT IT WILL LIKELY GET TO WITHIN 10 NM OF THE TERMINAL
OVER THE PUGET SOUND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL INCLUDE A
FEW002 CLOUD LAYER IN THE MORNING PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. NW
WIND 6 TO 9 KT WILL VEER TO NE 5-7 KT AFTER 04Z THIS EVENING THEN
BECOME VARIABLE AFTER 08Z. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS COMBINED
WITH LOWER PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE VARYING DEGREES
OF ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THAN IT HAS BEEN OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS. SO...A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 5 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO THE GALE WARNING AREA...THE WEST
ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT...THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY
INLET. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL GIVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE WED THROUGH SAT. SLIGHTLY
WEAKER ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL STILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST
      ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT
      OF JUAN DE FUCA...ADMIRALTY INLET...AND NORTHERN INLAND
      WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML















000
FXUS66 KPQR 292147
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
246 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA...AS A RESULT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS
UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT IS VERY WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE
THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE
CASCADES...ESPECIALLY LANE COUNTY. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS
OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONE
PARTICULARLY LARGE CELL WHICH WAS WARNED ON NEAR MCKENZIE PASS.
RADAR HAIL SIZE ESTIMATES MAXED OUT AT 1.75 INCHES...APPROACHING
PING PONG BALL SIZE...THOUGH ACTUAL HAIL SIZE WAS LIKELY A BIT LOWER
THAN THAT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REALLY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
THIS STORM APPEARS TO HAVE FED A BIT OFF OF CONVERGING UPSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AS IT DRIFTED NORTHWARD. PERHAPS ONE OR TWO
MORE STRONG CELLS COULD DEVELOP SIMILARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE
ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THIS TO BE A WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE.

ANOTHER DRIVER FOR THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WAS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE AND JET MAX PUSHING INTO THE OREGON CASCADES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ALSO MAY HAVE HELPED PUSH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
CELL TO SEVERE LIMITS. AS THE JET MAX MOVES ON AND THE SUN GOES DOWN
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING.

FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE MAIN STORY IS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER INLAND. TEMPS ARE APPROACHING OR
HAVE ALREADY SURPASSED 90 DEGREES AT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS AS OF 2
PM. WHILE TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF NICELY INTO THE 50S IN THE OUTLYING
VALLEYS...URBAN AREAS AND EXPOSED HILLSIDES HAVE SEEN LESS RELIEF
WITH TEMPS ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 60S. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ONLY GRADUALLY
WEAKENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. COASTAL AREAS WILL
REMAIN COOLER AS A WEAK ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW CONTINUES.

RISK FOR THUNDER DECREASES TEMPORARILY WEDNESDAY AS MOST MODELS
DEPICT WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE REGION. STILL CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT THUNDER ON THE CREST AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN DECENT.
MOISTURE APPEARS LESS ABUNDANT THOUGH...AND AGAIN THERE SHOULD BE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING. CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THU/THU
NIGHT AS THE REMNANT MOISTURE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN LIFT
NORTH AND POSSIBLY COMBINE WITH ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES PRESENTLY
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEYOND 130W. FOR NOW...MOST MODELS SUGGEST
THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE ARE TARGETING AREAS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST
AND POINTS EAST. HOWEVER IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS FURTHER
WEST COULD BE AFFECTED IF THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL
IN SOME SE FLOW ALOFT. FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE
CREST OF THE OREGON CASCADES THU/THU NIGHT.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE UP THIS RIDGE AND BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE WILL STAY ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST.THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
KEEP HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNTIL THIS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE EITHER BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE COASTLINE
WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE INLAND AIRPORTS TONIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THIS
EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF MT JEFFERSON. SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS
POSSIBLE OVER THE CASCADES DRIFTING NNE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING TONIGHT AND WED WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT N-NW SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC
AS A THERMAL TROUGH HOLDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS
RESULTING IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OREGON WATERS.
GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING
OR EXCEEDING 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST SOUTH OF
TILLAMOOK.

THE SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL WINDS. STEEP SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
BACKGROUND LONGER PERIOD SEAS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP ON
THE BUOYS...BUT THESE ARE VERY SMALL...1 FOOT OR LESS...AND LESS
SIGNIFICANT TO THE MARINER THAN THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS. THE STEEP SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH AND HAVE
THEREFORE COMBINED THE SEAS IN THE FORECAST. THE SEAS WILL BE THE
STEEPEST WHEN THE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST...DURING THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND NEAR SHORE.
TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 292147
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
246 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA...AS A RESULT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS
UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT IS VERY WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE
THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE
CASCADES...ESPECIALLY LANE COUNTY. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS
OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONE
PARTICULARLY LARGE CELL WHICH WAS WARNED ON NEAR MCKENZIE PASS.
RADAR HAIL SIZE ESTIMATES MAXED OUT AT 1.75 INCHES...APPROACHING
PING PONG BALL SIZE...THOUGH ACTUAL HAIL SIZE WAS LIKELY A BIT LOWER
THAN THAT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REALLY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
THIS STORM APPEARS TO HAVE FED A BIT OFF OF CONVERGING UPSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AS IT DRIFTED NORTHWARD. PERHAPS ONE OR TWO
MORE STRONG CELLS COULD DEVELOP SIMILARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE
ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THIS TO BE A WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE.

ANOTHER DRIVER FOR THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WAS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE AND JET MAX PUSHING INTO THE OREGON CASCADES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ALSO MAY HAVE HELPED PUSH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
CELL TO SEVERE LIMITS. AS THE JET MAX MOVES ON AND THE SUN GOES DOWN
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING.

FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE MAIN STORY IS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER INLAND. TEMPS ARE APPROACHING OR
HAVE ALREADY SURPASSED 90 DEGREES AT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS AS OF 2
PM. WHILE TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF NICELY INTO THE 50S IN THE OUTLYING
VALLEYS...URBAN AREAS AND EXPOSED HILLSIDES HAVE SEEN LESS RELIEF
WITH TEMPS ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 60S. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ONLY GRADUALLY
WEAKENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. COASTAL AREAS WILL
REMAIN COOLER AS A WEAK ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW CONTINUES.

RISK FOR THUNDER DECREASES TEMPORARILY WEDNESDAY AS MOST MODELS
DEPICT WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE REGION. STILL CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT THUNDER ON THE CREST AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN DECENT.
MOISTURE APPEARS LESS ABUNDANT THOUGH...AND AGAIN THERE SHOULD BE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING. CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THU/THU
NIGHT AS THE REMNANT MOISTURE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN LIFT
NORTH AND POSSIBLY COMBINE WITH ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES PRESENTLY
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEYOND 130W. FOR NOW...MOST MODELS SUGGEST
THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE ARE TARGETING AREAS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST
AND POINTS EAST. HOWEVER IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS FURTHER
WEST COULD BE AFFECTED IF THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL
IN SOME SE FLOW ALOFT. FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE
CREST OF THE OREGON CASCADES THU/THU NIGHT.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE UP THIS RIDGE AND BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE WILL STAY ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST.THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
KEEP HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNTIL THIS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE EITHER BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE COASTLINE
WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE INLAND AIRPORTS TONIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THIS
EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF MT JEFFERSON. SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS
POSSIBLE OVER THE CASCADES DRIFTING NNE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING TONIGHT AND WED WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT N-NW SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC
AS A THERMAL TROUGH HOLDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS
RESULTING IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OREGON WATERS.
GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING
OR EXCEEDING 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST SOUTH OF
TILLAMOOK.

THE SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL WINDS. STEEP SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
BACKGROUND LONGER PERIOD SEAS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP ON
THE BUOYS...BUT THESE ARE VERY SMALL...1 FOOT OR LESS...AND LESS
SIGNIFICANT TO THE MARINER THAN THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS. THE STEEP SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH AND HAVE
THEREFORE COMBINED THE SEAS IN THE FORECAST. THE SEAS WILL BE THE
STEEPEST WHEN THE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST...DURING THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND NEAR SHORE.
TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 292147
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
246 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA...AS A RESULT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS
UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT IS VERY WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE
THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE
CASCADES...ESPECIALLY LANE COUNTY. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS
OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONE
PARTICULARLY LARGE CELL WHICH WAS WARNED ON NEAR MCKENZIE PASS.
RADAR HAIL SIZE ESTIMATES MAXED OUT AT 1.75 INCHES...APPROACHING
PING PONG BALL SIZE...THOUGH ACTUAL HAIL SIZE WAS LIKELY A BIT LOWER
THAN THAT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REALLY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
THIS STORM APPEARS TO HAVE FED A BIT OFF OF CONVERGING UPSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AS IT DRIFTED NORTHWARD. PERHAPS ONE OR TWO
MORE STRONG CELLS COULD DEVELOP SIMILARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE
ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THIS TO BE A WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE.

ANOTHER DRIVER FOR THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WAS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE AND JET MAX PUSHING INTO THE OREGON CASCADES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ALSO MAY HAVE HELPED PUSH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
CELL TO SEVERE LIMITS. AS THE JET MAX MOVES ON AND THE SUN GOES DOWN
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING.

FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE MAIN STORY IS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER INLAND. TEMPS ARE APPROACHING OR
HAVE ALREADY SURPASSED 90 DEGREES AT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS AS OF 2
PM. WHILE TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF NICELY INTO THE 50S IN THE OUTLYING
VALLEYS...URBAN AREAS AND EXPOSED HILLSIDES HAVE SEEN LESS RELIEF
WITH TEMPS ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 60S. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ONLY GRADUALLY
WEAKENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. COASTAL AREAS WILL
REMAIN COOLER AS A WEAK ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW CONTINUES.

RISK FOR THUNDER DECREASES TEMPORARILY WEDNESDAY AS MOST MODELS
DEPICT WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE REGION. STILL CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT THUNDER ON THE CREST AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN DECENT.
MOISTURE APPEARS LESS ABUNDANT THOUGH...AND AGAIN THERE SHOULD BE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING. CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THU/THU
NIGHT AS THE REMNANT MOISTURE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN LIFT
NORTH AND POSSIBLY COMBINE WITH ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES PRESENTLY
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEYOND 130W. FOR NOW...MOST MODELS SUGGEST
THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE ARE TARGETING AREAS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST
AND POINTS EAST. HOWEVER IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS FURTHER
WEST COULD BE AFFECTED IF THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL
IN SOME SE FLOW ALOFT. FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE
CREST OF THE OREGON CASCADES THU/THU NIGHT.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE UP THIS RIDGE AND BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE WILL STAY ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST.THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
KEEP HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNTIL THIS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE EITHER BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE COASTLINE
WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE INLAND AIRPORTS TONIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THIS
EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF MT JEFFERSON. SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS
POSSIBLE OVER THE CASCADES DRIFTING NNE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING TONIGHT AND WED WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT N-NW SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC
AS A THERMAL TROUGH HOLDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS
RESULTING IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OREGON WATERS.
GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING
OR EXCEEDING 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST SOUTH OF
TILLAMOOK.

THE SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL WINDS. STEEP SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
BACKGROUND LONGER PERIOD SEAS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP ON
THE BUOYS...BUT THESE ARE VERY SMALL...1 FOOT OR LESS...AND LESS
SIGNIFICANT TO THE MARINER THAN THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS. THE STEEP SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH AND HAVE
THEREFORE COMBINED THE SEAS IN THE FORECAST. THE SEAS WILL BE THE
STEEPEST WHEN THE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST...DURING THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND NEAR SHORE.
TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 292143
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
243 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny and hot weather will continue over the Inland Northwest
through at least Friday. A gradual increase in clouds over the
next few days may knock temperatures down a few degrees, but mid
90s to low 100s will be common through the work week. The threat
for thunderstorms should increase over the weekend which may
knock temperatures down a bit more.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight...The region will remain under the control of a strong
upper level ridge. Any of the monsoonal moisture and instability
working slowly northward through northern Oregon/central Idaho
will generally remain south of our forecast area. However there is
a very small chance of a shower or thunderstorm early this evening
over the southern Idaho Panhandle or the extreme southeast corner
of Washington due to the greatest potential instability combined
with the weakest convective cap. After sunset most of the activity
will taper off rapidly. It will be a dry and mild night once again
with poor relative humidity recoveries for most locations. Clouds
will increase late tonight near the Oregon border as a pool of
mid-level instability and moisture surges slowly northward. We do
not expect any precipitation to occur...however there could be a
small field of ACCAS clouds and perhaps a sprinkle after sunrise.
fx

Wednesday through Friday: It is tough to get too excited about
precipitation chances for the majority of the Inland Northwest
Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday. The morning runs of the weather
models keep the lion`s share of the mid-level moisture and
surface based instability for thunderstorms over Oregon and
southern Idaho for the second half of the work week. The models
are in good agreement that a weak upper level disturbance off the
coast of northern California will dent the formidable upper level
ridge on Wednesday shunting a bit of mid-level moisture into the
Panhandle. The NAM looks to be the most aggressive generating
convection over the Idaho Panhandle mountains Wednesday afternoon
and evening, but it is tough to forecast more than a 20 percent
chance of showers and thunderstorms, even following the "moist"
NAM. Another marginal push of mid-level moisture is suggested on
Friday, possibly into the Cascades and southeast Washington. Once
again, it is tough to forecast more than 20 percent chance of
mainly terrain based convection.

Raw model output is generally hotter than MOS guidance Wednesday
through Friday. Given the relatively limited amount of cloud cover
expected, temperatures have been trended a bit hotter. 850mb
temperatures do not trend down much the second half of the week,
so it looks like a continuation of mid 90s to near 100 degrees for
most of the region. /GKoch

Friday night through Tuesday...Very odd interval of the forecast.
Pops were raised as at least three ECMWF runs hint fairly hard
that some remnant moisture and energy from post-tropical storm
Hernan gets ejected up from the East Pacific and into the
southerly/southwesterly flow on the west side of the longwave
ridge axis over the Western US. This leaves a good part of the
interval with increase pops and the QPF is something to ponder a
good time over. Many are noting some similarity in this solution
to what Hurricane Fabio did back around this same time period back
in late July of 2012. Discussion of this similarity last night
with other forecasters noted that remnants of Fabio were
associated with dropping 1.76 inches on Omak back on July 20,2012
along with 1.70 inches on Chelan and 0.92 inches Mazama on July
20,2012. Locations further east such as Spokane received 0.25
inches on July 20, 2012. Nobody is saying that this scenario will
repeat exactly as Fabio did in 2012 but it is worth looking back
and noting how much rain did fall back then. With this in mind as
far as Friday night through Sunday goes pops were increased some
with uncertainty noted as it is usually problematic to model
solution run to run consistency anytime tropical energy gets
ejected up into the mid-latitudes. Expectation is any/all
disturbances that may be remotely associated with remnant Hernan
moisture/energy will be to the east of the area and the prevailing
Southwest flow on the west side of the persistent longwave ridge
may steer additional shortwaves through either from the East
Pacific or up from the south but current model runs are not
aggressive in doing so. As such Sunday night through Tuesday pops
show a decrease and are lower in comparison to those over the
weekend. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at all forecast sites during
this period as strong ridge remains over the region. There could
be a weak disturbance moving across the OR/WA border after 12z
which could deliver increasing mid and high level clouds...but
little else. fx


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        68  97  68  96  67  93 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  64  95  63  94  62  92 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        58  95  58  94  59  91 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       71 102  71 101  71  98 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       59 102  58 101  59  97 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      55  93  55  92  54  91 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        63  93  61  93  62  90 /   0  10  20  10  10  10
Moses Lake     66 102  64 101  65  99 /   0  10   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      71 100  70 100  72  99 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           66 101  65 100  66  99 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 292143
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
243 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny and hot weather will continue over the Inland Northwest
through at least Friday. A gradual increase in clouds over the
next few days may knock temperatures down a few degrees, but mid
90s to low 100s will be common through the work week. The threat
for thunderstorms should increase over the weekend which may
knock temperatures down a bit more.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight...The region will remain under the control of a strong
upper level ridge. Any of the monsoonal moisture and instability
working slowly northward through northern Oregon/central Idaho
will generally remain south of our forecast area. However there is
a very small chance of a shower or thunderstorm early this evening
over the southern Idaho Panhandle or the extreme southeast corner
of Washington due to the greatest potential instability combined
with the weakest convective cap. After sunset most of the activity
will taper off rapidly. It will be a dry and mild night once again
with poor relative humidity recoveries for most locations. Clouds
will increase late tonight near the Oregon border as a pool of
mid-level instability and moisture surges slowly northward. We do
not expect any precipitation to occur...however there could be a
small field of ACCAS clouds and perhaps a sprinkle after sunrise.
fx

Wednesday through Friday: It is tough to get too excited about
precipitation chances for the majority of the Inland Northwest
Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday. The morning runs of the weather
models keep the lion`s share of the mid-level moisture and
surface based instability for thunderstorms over Oregon and
southern Idaho for the second half of the work week. The models
are in good agreement that a weak upper level disturbance off the
coast of northern California will dent the formidable upper level
ridge on Wednesday shunting a bit of mid-level moisture into the
Panhandle. The NAM looks to be the most aggressive generating
convection over the Idaho Panhandle mountains Wednesday afternoon
and evening, but it is tough to forecast more than a 20 percent
chance of showers and thunderstorms, even following the "moist"
NAM. Another marginal push of mid-level moisture is suggested on
Friday, possibly into the Cascades and southeast Washington. Once
again, it is tough to forecast more than 20 percent chance of
mainly terrain based convection.

Raw model output is generally hotter than MOS guidance Wednesday
through Friday. Given the relatively limited amount of cloud cover
expected, temperatures have been trended a bit hotter. 850mb
temperatures do not trend down much the second half of the week,
so it looks like a continuation of mid 90s to near 100 degrees for
most of the region. /GKoch

Friday night through Tuesday...Very odd interval of the forecast.
Pops were raised as at least three ECMWF runs hint fairly hard
that some remnant moisture and energy from post-tropical storm
Hernan gets ejected up from the East Pacific and into the
southerly/southwesterly flow on the west side of the longwave
ridge axis over the Western US. This leaves a good part of the
interval with increase pops and the QPF is something to ponder a
good time over. Many are noting some similarity in this solution
to what Hurricane Fabio did back around this same time period back
in late July of 2012. Discussion of this similarity last night
with other forecasters noted that remnants of Fabio were
associated with dropping 1.76 inches on Omak back on July 20,2012
along with 1.70 inches on Chelan and 0.92 inches Mazama on July
20,2012. Locations further east such as Spokane received 0.25
inches on July 20, 2012. Nobody is saying that this scenario will
repeat exactly as Fabio did in 2012 but it is worth looking back
and noting how much rain did fall back then. With this in mind as
far as Friday night through Sunday goes pops were increased some
with uncertainty noted as it is usually problematic to model
solution run to run consistency anytime tropical energy gets
ejected up into the mid-latitudes. Expectation is any/all
disturbances that may be remotely associated with remnant Hernan
moisture/energy will be to the east of the area and the prevailing
Southwest flow on the west side of the persistent longwave ridge
may steer additional shortwaves through either from the East
Pacific or up from the south but current model runs are not
aggressive in doing so. As such Sunday night through Tuesday pops
show a decrease and are lower in comparison to those over the
weekend. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at all forecast sites during
this period as strong ridge remains over the region. There could
be a weak disturbance moving across the OR/WA border after 12z
which could deliver increasing mid and high level clouds...but
little else. fx


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        68  97  68  96  67  93 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  64  95  63  94  62  92 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        58  95  58  94  59  91 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       71 102  71 101  71  98 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       59 102  58 101  59  97 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      55  93  55  92  54  91 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        63  93  61  93  62  90 /   0  10  20  10  10  10
Moses Lake     66 102  64 101  65  99 /   0  10   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      71 100  70 100  72  99 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           66 101  65 100  66  99 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 292143
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
243 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny and hot weather will continue over the Inland Northwest
through at least Friday. A gradual increase in clouds over the
next few days may knock temperatures down a few degrees, but mid
90s to low 100s will be common through the work week. The threat
for thunderstorms should increase over the weekend which may
knock temperatures down a bit more.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight...The region will remain under the control of a strong
upper level ridge. Any of the monsoonal moisture and instability
working slowly northward through northern Oregon/central Idaho
will generally remain south of our forecast area. However there is
a very small chance of a shower or thunderstorm early this evening
over the southern Idaho Panhandle or the extreme southeast corner
of Washington due to the greatest potential instability combined
with the weakest convective cap. After sunset most of the activity
will taper off rapidly. It will be a dry and mild night once again
with poor relative humidity recoveries for most locations. Clouds
will increase late tonight near the Oregon border as a pool of
mid-level instability and moisture surges slowly northward. We do
not expect any precipitation to occur...however there could be a
small field of ACCAS clouds and perhaps a sprinkle after sunrise.
fx

Wednesday through Friday: It is tough to get too excited about
precipitation chances for the majority of the Inland Northwest
Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday. The morning runs of the weather
models keep the lion`s share of the mid-level moisture and
surface based instability for thunderstorms over Oregon and
southern Idaho for the second half of the work week. The models
are in good agreement that a weak upper level disturbance off the
coast of northern California will dent the formidable upper level
ridge on Wednesday shunting a bit of mid-level moisture into the
Panhandle. The NAM looks to be the most aggressive generating
convection over the Idaho Panhandle mountains Wednesday afternoon
and evening, but it is tough to forecast more than a 20 percent
chance of showers and thunderstorms, even following the "moist"
NAM. Another marginal push of mid-level moisture is suggested on
Friday, possibly into the Cascades and southeast Washington. Once
again, it is tough to forecast more than 20 percent chance of
mainly terrain based convection.

Raw model output is generally hotter than MOS guidance Wednesday
through Friday. Given the relatively limited amount of cloud cover
expected, temperatures have been trended a bit hotter. 850mb
temperatures do not trend down much the second half of the week,
so it looks like a continuation of mid 90s to near 100 degrees for
most of the region. /GKoch

Friday night through Tuesday...Very odd interval of the forecast.
Pops were raised as at least three ECMWF runs hint fairly hard
that some remnant moisture and energy from post-tropical storm
Hernan gets ejected up from the East Pacific and into the
southerly/southwesterly flow on the west side of the longwave
ridge axis over the Western US. This leaves a good part of the
interval with increase pops and the QPF is something to ponder a
good time over. Many are noting some similarity in this solution
to what Hurricane Fabio did back around this same time period back
in late July of 2012. Discussion of this similarity last night
with other forecasters noted that remnants of Fabio were
associated with dropping 1.76 inches on Omak back on July 20,2012
along with 1.70 inches on Chelan and 0.92 inches Mazama on July
20,2012. Locations further east such as Spokane received 0.25
inches on July 20, 2012. Nobody is saying that this scenario will
repeat exactly as Fabio did in 2012 but it is worth looking back
and noting how much rain did fall back then. With this in mind as
far as Friday night through Sunday goes pops were increased some
with uncertainty noted as it is usually problematic to model
solution run to run consistency anytime tropical energy gets
ejected up into the mid-latitudes. Expectation is any/all
disturbances that may be remotely associated with remnant Hernan
moisture/energy will be to the east of the area and the prevailing
Southwest flow on the west side of the persistent longwave ridge
may steer additional shortwaves through either from the East
Pacific or up from the south but current model runs are not
aggressive in doing so. As such Sunday night through Tuesday pops
show a decrease and are lower in comparison to those over the
weekend. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at all forecast sites during
this period as strong ridge remains over the region. There could
be a weak disturbance moving across the OR/WA border after 12z
which could deliver increasing mid and high level clouds...but
little else. fx


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        68  97  68  96  67  93 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  64  95  63  94  62  92 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        58  95  58  94  59  91 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       71 102  71 101  71  98 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       59 102  58 101  59  97 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      55  93  55  92  54  91 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        63  93  61  93  62  90 /   0  10  20  10  10  10
Moses Lake     66 102  64 101  65  99 /   0  10   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      71 100  70 100  72  99 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           66 101  65 100  66  99 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 292143
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
243 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny and hot weather will continue over the Inland Northwest
through at least Friday. A gradual increase in clouds over the
next few days may knock temperatures down a few degrees, but mid
90s to low 100s will be common through the work week. The threat
for thunderstorms should increase over the weekend which may
knock temperatures down a bit more.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight...The region will remain under the control of a strong
upper level ridge. Any of the monsoonal moisture and instability
working slowly northward through northern Oregon/central Idaho
will generally remain south of our forecast area. However there is
a very small chance of a shower or thunderstorm early this evening
over the southern Idaho Panhandle or the extreme southeast corner
of Washington due to the greatest potential instability combined
with the weakest convective cap. After sunset most of the activity
will taper off rapidly. It will be a dry and mild night once again
with poor relative humidity recoveries for most locations. Clouds
will increase late tonight near the Oregon border as a pool of
mid-level instability and moisture surges slowly northward. We do
not expect any precipitation to occur...however there could be a
small field of ACCAS clouds and perhaps a sprinkle after sunrise.
fx

Wednesday through Friday: It is tough to get too excited about
precipitation chances for the majority of the Inland Northwest
Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday. The morning runs of the weather
models keep the lion`s share of the mid-level moisture and
surface based instability for thunderstorms over Oregon and
southern Idaho for the second half of the work week. The models
are in good agreement that a weak upper level disturbance off the
coast of northern California will dent the formidable upper level
ridge on Wednesday shunting a bit of mid-level moisture into the
Panhandle. The NAM looks to be the most aggressive generating
convection over the Idaho Panhandle mountains Wednesday afternoon
and evening, but it is tough to forecast more than a 20 percent
chance of showers and thunderstorms, even following the "moist"
NAM. Another marginal push of mid-level moisture is suggested on
Friday, possibly into the Cascades and southeast Washington. Once
again, it is tough to forecast more than 20 percent chance of
mainly terrain based convection.

Raw model output is generally hotter than MOS guidance Wednesday
through Friday. Given the relatively limited amount of cloud cover
expected, temperatures have been trended a bit hotter. 850mb
temperatures do not trend down much the second half of the week,
so it looks like a continuation of mid 90s to near 100 degrees for
most of the region. /GKoch

Friday night through Tuesday...Very odd interval of the forecast.
Pops were raised as at least three ECMWF runs hint fairly hard
that some remnant moisture and energy from post-tropical storm
Hernan gets ejected up from the East Pacific and into the
southerly/southwesterly flow on the west side of the longwave
ridge axis over the Western US. This leaves a good part of the
interval with increase pops and the QPF is something to ponder a
good time over. Many are noting some similarity in this solution
to what Hurricane Fabio did back around this same time period back
in late July of 2012. Discussion of this similarity last night
with other forecasters noted that remnants of Fabio were
associated with dropping 1.76 inches on Omak back on July 20,2012
along with 1.70 inches on Chelan and 0.92 inches Mazama on July
20,2012. Locations further east such as Spokane received 0.25
inches on July 20, 2012. Nobody is saying that this scenario will
repeat exactly as Fabio did in 2012 but it is worth looking back
and noting how much rain did fall back then. With this in mind as
far as Friday night through Sunday goes pops were increased some
with uncertainty noted as it is usually problematic to model
solution run to run consistency anytime tropical energy gets
ejected up into the mid-latitudes. Expectation is any/all
disturbances that may be remotely associated with remnant Hernan
moisture/energy will be to the east of the area and the prevailing
Southwest flow on the west side of the persistent longwave ridge
may steer additional shortwaves through either from the East
Pacific or up from the south but current model runs are not
aggressive in doing so. As such Sunday night through Tuesday pops
show a decrease and are lower in comparison to those over the
weekend. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at all forecast sites during
this period as strong ridge remains over the region. There could
be a weak disturbance moving across the OR/WA border after 12z
which could deliver increasing mid and high level clouds...but
little else. fx


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        68  97  68  96  67  93 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  64  95  63  94  62  92 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        58  95  58  94  59  91 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       71 102  71 101  71  98 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       59 102  58 101  59  97 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      55  93  55  92  54  91 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        63  93  61  93  62  90 /   0  10  20  10  10  10
Moses Lake     66 102  64 101  65  99 /   0  10   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      71 100  70 100  72  99 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           66 101  65 100  66  99 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 291856
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1155 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today...Based on morning sounding data from Spokane...this
should be the warmest day of the week and for some locations this
year. Most locations should be about 1-3f warmer than yesterday.
This was well handled in previous forecast...but based on actual
numbers...we decided to expand heat advisory into parts of the Okanogan
Valley...Wenatchee Area...and Waterville Plateau. Aside from the
heat we will see very little threat of convection deep enough to
support showers or thunderstorms. Model soundings are forecasting
good CAPE values in the Cascades and across the higher terrain of
the Idaho Panhandle and NE Washington...however there is also a
lot of convective inhibition to overcome. Lacking a significant
trigger...ie front or shortwave...this inhibition is nearly
impossible to overcome. Could we see a very isolated shower
develop later this afternoon or evening...yes...However the risk
is too small to place in the grids or forecasts. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at all forecast sites during
this period as strong ridge remains over the region. There could
be a weak disturbance moving across the OR/WA border after 12z
which could deliver increasing mid and high level clouds...but
little else. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        99  68  96  67  95  69 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  64  94  62  94  64 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Pullman        97  60  94  59  93  61 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston      105  72 101  68 100  72 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville      101  60  99  59  98  60 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      94  57  91  56  93  56 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        94  62  91  60  92  63 /   0   0  10  20  10  10
Moses Lake    104  67 101  65  99  66 /   0   0  10   0   0  10
Wenatchee     102  71 100  70  99  71 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak          103  66 102  65 100  66 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 291856
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1155 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today...Based on morning sounding data from Spokane...this
should be the warmest day of the week and for some locations this
year. Most locations should be about 1-3f warmer than yesterday.
This was well handled in previous forecast...but based on actual
numbers...we decided to expand heat advisory into parts of the Okanogan
Valley...Wenatchee Area...and Waterville Plateau. Aside from the
heat we will see very little threat of convection deep enough to
support showers or thunderstorms. Model soundings are forecasting
good CAPE values in the Cascades and across the higher terrain of
the Idaho Panhandle and NE Washington...however there is also a
lot of convective inhibition to overcome. Lacking a significant
trigger...ie front or shortwave...this inhibition is nearly
impossible to overcome. Could we see a very isolated shower
develop later this afternoon or evening...yes...However the risk
is too small to place in the grids or forecasts. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at all forecast sites during
this period as strong ridge remains over the region. There could
be a weak disturbance moving across the OR/WA border after 12z
which could deliver increasing mid and high level clouds...but
little else. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        99  68  96  67  95  69 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  64  94  62  94  64 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Pullman        97  60  94  59  93  61 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston      105  72 101  68 100  72 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville      101  60  99  59  98  60 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      94  57  91  56  93  56 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        94  62  91  60  92  63 /   0   0  10  20  10  10
Moses Lake    104  67 101  65  99  66 /   0   0  10   0   0  10
Wenatchee     102  71 100  70  99  71 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak          103  66 102  65 100  66 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 291856
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1155 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today...Based on morning sounding data from Spokane...this
should be the warmest day of the week and for some locations this
year. Most locations should be about 1-3f warmer than yesterday.
This was well handled in previous forecast...but based on actual
numbers...we decided to expand heat advisory into parts of the Okanogan
Valley...Wenatchee Area...and Waterville Plateau. Aside from the
heat we will see very little threat of convection deep enough to
support showers or thunderstorms. Model soundings are forecasting
good CAPE values in the Cascades and across the higher terrain of
the Idaho Panhandle and NE Washington...however there is also a
lot of convective inhibition to overcome. Lacking a significant
trigger...ie front or shortwave...this inhibition is nearly
impossible to overcome. Could we see a very isolated shower
develop later this afternoon or evening...yes...However the risk
is too small to place in the grids or forecasts. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at all forecast sites during
this period as strong ridge remains over the region. There could
be a weak disturbance moving across the OR/WA border after 12z
which could deliver increasing mid and high level clouds...but
little else. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        99  68  96  67  95  69 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  64  94  62  94  64 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Pullman        97  60  94  59  93  61 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston      105  72 101  68 100  72 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville      101  60  99  59  98  60 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      94  57  91  56  93  56 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        94  62  91  60  92  63 /   0   0  10  20  10  10
Moses Lake    104  67 101  65  99  66 /   0   0  10   0   0  10
Wenatchee     102  71 100  70  99  71 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak          103  66 102  65 100  66 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 291856
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1155 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today...Based on morning sounding data from Spokane...this
should be the warmest day of the week and for some locations this
year. Most locations should be about 1-3f warmer than yesterday.
This was well handled in previous forecast...but based on actual
numbers...we decided to expand heat advisory into parts of the Okanogan
Valley...Wenatchee Area...and Waterville Plateau. Aside from the
heat we will see very little threat of convection deep enough to
support showers or thunderstorms. Model soundings are forecasting
good CAPE values in the Cascades and across the higher terrain of
the Idaho Panhandle and NE Washington...however there is also a
lot of convective inhibition to overcome. Lacking a significant
trigger...ie front or shortwave...this inhibition is nearly
impossible to overcome. Could we see a very isolated shower
develop later this afternoon or evening...yes...However the risk
is too small to place in the grids or forecasts. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at all forecast sites during
this period as strong ridge remains over the region. There could
be a weak disturbance moving across the OR/WA border after 12z
which could deliver increasing mid and high level clouds...but
little else. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        99  68  96  67  95  69 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  64  94  62  94  64 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Pullman        97  60  94  59  93  61 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston      105  72 101  68 100  72 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville      101  60  99  59  98  60 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      94  57  91  56  93  56 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        94  62  91  60  92  63 /   0   0  10  20  10  10
Moses Lake    104  67 101  65  99  66 /   0   0  10   0   0  10
Wenatchee     102  71 100  70  99  71 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak          103  66 102  65 100  66 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 291635
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
934 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA...AS A RESULT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS
UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT IS VERY WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE
THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE
CASCADES...MAINLY LANE COUNTY. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL
PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.UPDATE...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME ALTOCUMULUS LIFTING INTO LANE COUNTY
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS INDICATES A BIT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...AND IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED IN ONE OF THESE
CLOUDS EAST OF EUGENE EARLIER THIS MORNING. A SIMILAR ALTOCUMULUS
BUILDUP IS HEADED TOWARD SANTIAM PASS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OUT OF THIS CELL EITHER. THUS WE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES EARLY TODAY AS
WELL AS THIS AFTERNOON.

BELIEVE THE ENVIRONMENT MOVING IN ALOFT OVER EAST LANE COUNTY IS
BETTER CHARACTERIZED BY THE 12Z MEDFORD SOUNDING THAN THE SALEM
SOUNDING. MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE MOISTURE ALOFT VERY
WELL. A WEAK DRY SLOT IS NOTABLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...HEADED
NORTH FROM THE OR/CA BORDER. THIS COULD PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE OREGON CASCADES
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WAS REFLECTED WELL IN THE MORNING
FORECAST AND MADE FEW CHANGES.WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 307 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE B.C. COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE FEATURES
AFFECTING THE WEATHER FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEK. LIGHT
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS. THE MARINE
LAYER REMAINS SHALLOW UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND IS LIMITED TO
THE COASTAL ZONES WITH A LITTLE SEEPAGE UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER.

VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE LOWER 500MB
HEIGHTS FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN THE
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP THE MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE
COAST TODAY. LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND MAY BRING SOME DRIZZLE TO THE
COAST.MARINE STRATUS SHOULD SEEP FURTHER INLAND AND TRY TO EXTEND
INLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND BUT ANYTHING WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND NOT HAVE
MUCH IMPACT. TEMPS INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH THURSDAY.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED FOR CLOUD
GROWTH UP TO THE -30C LEVEL AND WILL LIKELY NEED THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE CASCADES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. SO EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO
BE ISOLATED AT BEST. HOWEVER WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE A STRONG
CELL COULD DUMP A FAIR AMOUNT OF PCPN IN A SHORT TIME. THE PATTERN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ONE CHANGE IN THE MODELS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
DOWN TO 0.6 INCH FROM 1 INCH OVER YESTERDAYS RUN.


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO TRAVEL UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING OUR AREA. THESE IMPULSES BRING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE CASCADES...THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
SHORTWAVES AS MODEL RESOLUTION ACCURACY DECLINES RAPIDLY FURTHER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THESE SMALLER FEATURES. HAVE
DECREASED POPS FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED
ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR STORM CHANCES...AND DECREASED
CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO GREAT MODEL
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND LOCATION. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG IS HUGGING THE COAST AND SOME OF THE
COASTAL VALLEYS WITH IFR CONDITIONS. THE STRATUS MADE IT INTO
KKLS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRATUS BEGINNING
TO CLEAR INLAND...AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST BETWEEN
19 AND 21Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE INLAND
AIRPORTS. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA...MAINLY
SOUTH OF KSLE TODAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. TJ

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT N-NW SURFACE WINDS. CULLEN/TJ

&&

.MARINE...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE WEATHER THIS WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC AS A
THERMAL TROUGH HOLDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS RESULTING
IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OREGON WATERS. GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK.
HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO INCLUDE THE WATERS BEYOND 10 NM SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD.

THE SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL WINDS. STEEP SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
BACKGROUND LONGER PERIOD SEAS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP ON
THE BUOYS...BUT THESE ARE VERY SMALL...1 FOOT OR LESS...AND LESS
SIGNIFICANT TO THE MARINER THAN THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS. THE STEEP SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH AND HAVE
THEREFORE COMBINED THE SEAS. THE SEAS WILL BE THE STEEPEST WHEN
THE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST...DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND NEAR SHORE. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
     PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS AND FROM CASCADE
     HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 291635
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
934 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA...AS A RESULT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS
UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT IS VERY WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE
THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE
CASCADES...MAINLY LANE COUNTY. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL
PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.UPDATE...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME ALTOCUMULUS LIFTING INTO LANE COUNTY
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS INDICATES A BIT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...AND IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED IN ONE OF THESE
CLOUDS EAST OF EUGENE EARLIER THIS MORNING. A SIMILAR ALTOCUMULUS
BUILDUP IS HEADED TOWARD SANTIAM PASS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OUT OF THIS CELL EITHER. THUS WE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES EARLY TODAY AS
WELL AS THIS AFTERNOON.

BELIEVE THE ENVIRONMENT MOVING IN ALOFT OVER EAST LANE COUNTY IS
BETTER CHARACTERIZED BY THE 12Z MEDFORD SOUNDING THAN THE SALEM
SOUNDING. MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE MOISTURE ALOFT VERY
WELL. A WEAK DRY SLOT IS NOTABLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...HEADED
NORTH FROM THE OR/CA BORDER. THIS COULD PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE OREGON CASCADES
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WAS REFLECTED WELL IN THE MORNING
FORECAST AND MADE FEW CHANGES.WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 307 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE B.C. COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE FEATURES
AFFECTING THE WEATHER FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEK. LIGHT
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS. THE MARINE
LAYER REMAINS SHALLOW UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND IS LIMITED TO
THE COASTAL ZONES WITH A LITTLE SEEPAGE UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER.

VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE LOWER 500MB
HEIGHTS FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN THE
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP THE MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE
COAST TODAY. LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND MAY BRING SOME DRIZZLE TO THE
COAST.MARINE STRATUS SHOULD SEEP FURTHER INLAND AND TRY TO EXTEND
INLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND BUT ANYTHING WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND NOT HAVE
MUCH IMPACT. TEMPS INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH THURSDAY.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED FOR CLOUD
GROWTH UP TO THE -30C LEVEL AND WILL LIKELY NEED THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE CASCADES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. SO EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO
BE ISOLATED AT BEST. HOWEVER WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE A STRONG
CELL COULD DUMP A FAIR AMOUNT OF PCPN IN A SHORT TIME. THE PATTERN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ONE CHANGE IN THE MODELS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
DOWN TO 0.6 INCH FROM 1 INCH OVER YESTERDAYS RUN.


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO TRAVEL UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING OUR AREA. THESE IMPULSES BRING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE CASCADES...THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
SHORTWAVES AS MODEL RESOLUTION ACCURACY DECLINES RAPIDLY FURTHER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THESE SMALLER FEATURES. HAVE
DECREASED POPS FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED
ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR STORM CHANCES...AND DECREASED
CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO GREAT MODEL
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND LOCATION. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG IS HUGGING THE COAST AND SOME OF THE
COASTAL VALLEYS WITH IFR CONDITIONS. THE STRATUS MADE IT INTO
KKLS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRATUS BEGINNING
TO CLEAR INLAND...AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST BETWEEN
19 AND 21Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE INLAND
AIRPORTS. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA...MAINLY
SOUTH OF KSLE TODAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. TJ

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT N-NW SURFACE WINDS. CULLEN/TJ

&&

.MARINE...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE WEATHER THIS WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC AS A
THERMAL TROUGH HOLDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS RESULTING
IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OREGON WATERS. GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK.
HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO INCLUDE THE WATERS BEYOND 10 NM SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD.

THE SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL WINDS. STEEP SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
BACKGROUND LONGER PERIOD SEAS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP ON
THE BUOYS...BUT THESE ARE VERY SMALL...1 FOOT OR LESS...AND LESS
SIGNIFICANT TO THE MARINER THAN THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS. THE STEEP SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH AND HAVE
THEREFORE COMBINED THE SEAS. THE SEAS WILL BE THE STEEPEST WHEN
THE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST...DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND NEAR SHORE. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
     PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS AND FROM CASCADE
     HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 291635
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
934 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA...AS A RESULT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS
UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT IS VERY WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE
THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE
CASCADES...MAINLY LANE COUNTY. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL
PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.UPDATE...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME ALTOCUMULUS LIFTING INTO LANE COUNTY
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS INDICATES A BIT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...AND IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED IN ONE OF THESE
CLOUDS EAST OF EUGENE EARLIER THIS MORNING. A SIMILAR ALTOCUMULUS
BUILDUP IS HEADED TOWARD SANTIAM PASS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OUT OF THIS CELL EITHER. THUS WE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES EARLY TODAY AS
WELL AS THIS AFTERNOON.

BELIEVE THE ENVIRONMENT MOVING IN ALOFT OVER EAST LANE COUNTY IS
BETTER CHARACTERIZED BY THE 12Z MEDFORD SOUNDING THAN THE SALEM
SOUNDING. MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE MOISTURE ALOFT VERY
WELL. A WEAK DRY SLOT IS NOTABLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...HEADED
NORTH FROM THE OR/CA BORDER. THIS COULD PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE OREGON CASCADES
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WAS REFLECTED WELL IN THE MORNING
FORECAST AND MADE FEW CHANGES.WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 307 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE B.C. COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE FEATURES
AFFECTING THE WEATHER FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEK. LIGHT
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS. THE MARINE
LAYER REMAINS SHALLOW UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND IS LIMITED TO
THE COASTAL ZONES WITH A LITTLE SEEPAGE UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER.

VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE LOWER 500MB
HEIGHTS FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN THE
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP THE MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE
COAST TODAY. LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND MAY BRING SOME DRIZZLE TO THE
COAST.MARINE STRATUS SHOULD SEEP FURTHER INLAND AND TRY TO EXTEND
INLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND BUT ANYTHING WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND NOT HAVE
MUCH IMPACT. TEMPS INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH THURSDAY.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED FOR CLOUD
GROWTH UP TO THE -30C LEVEL AND WILL LIKELY NEED THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE CASCADES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. SO EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO
BE ISOLATED AT BEST. HOWEVER WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE A STRONG
CELL COULD DUMP A FAIR AMOUNT OF PCPN IN A SHORT TIME. THE PATTERN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ONE CHANGE IN THE MODELS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
DOWN TO 0.6 INCH FROM 1 INCH OVER YESTERDAYS RUN.


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO TRAVEL UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING OUR AREA. THESE IMPULSES BRING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE CASCADES...THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
SHORTWAVES AS MODEL RESOLUTION ACCURACY DECLINES RAPIDLY FURTHER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THESE SMALLER FEATURES. HAVE
DECREASED POPS FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED
ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR STORM CHANCES...AND DECREASED
CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO GREAT MODEL
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND LOCATION. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG IS HUGGING THE COAST AND SOME OF THE
COASTAL VALLEYS WITH IFR CONDITIONS. THE STRATUS MADE IT INTO
KKLS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRATUS BEGINNING
TO CLEAR INLAND...AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST BETWEEN
19 AND 21Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE INLAND
AIRPORTS. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA...MAINLY
SOUTH OF KSLE TODAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. TJ

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT N-NW SURFACE WINDS. CULLEN/TJ

&&

.MARINE...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE WEATHER THIS WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC AS A
THERMAL TROUGH HOLDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS RESULTING
IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OREGON WATERS. GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK.
HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO INCLUDE THE WATERS BEYOND 10 NM SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD.

THE SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL WINDS. STEEP SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
BACKGROUND LONGER PERIOD SEAS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP ON
THE BUOYS...BUT THESE ARE VERY SMALL...1 FOOT OR LESS...AND LESS
SIGNIFICANT TO THE MARINER THAN THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS. THE STEEP SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH AND HAVE
THEREFORE COMBINED THE SEAS. THE SEAS WILL BE THE STEEPEST WHEN
THE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST...DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND NEAR SHORE. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
     PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS AND FROM CASCADE
     HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 291635
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
934 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA...AS A RESULT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS
UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT IS VERY WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE
THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE
CASCADES...MAINLY LANE COUNTY. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL
PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.UPDATE...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME ALTOCUMULUS LIFTING INTO LANE COUNTY
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS INDICATES A BIT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...AND IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED IN ONE OF THESE
CLOUDS EAST OF EUGENE EARLIER THIS MORNING. A SIMILAR ALTOCUMULUS
BUILDUP IS HEADED TOWARD SANTIAM PASS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OUT OF THIS CELL EITHER. THUS WE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES EARLY TODAY AS
WELL AS THIS AFTERNOON.

BELIEVE THE ENVIRONMENT MOVING IN ALOFT OVER EAST LANE COUNTY IS
BETTER CHARACTERIZED BY THE 12Z MEDFORD SOUNDING THAN THE SALEM
SOUNDING. MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE MOISTURE ALOFT VERY
WELL. A WEAK DRY SLOT IS NOTABLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...HEADED
NORTH FROM THE OR/CA BORDER. THIS COULD PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE OREGON CASCADES
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WAS REFLECTED WELL IN THE MORNING
FORECAST AND MADE FEW CHANGES.WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 307 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE B.C. COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE FEATURES
AFFECTING THE WEATHER FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEK. LIGHT
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS. THE MARINE
LAYER REMAINS SHALLOW UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND IS LIMITED TO
THE COASTAL ZONES WITH A LITTLE SEEPAGE UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER.

VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE LOWER 500MB
HEIGHTS FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN THE
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP THE MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE
COAST TODAY. LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND MAY BRING SOME DRIZZLE TO THE
COAST.MARINE STRATUS SHOULD SEEP FURTHER INLAND AND TRY TO EXTEND
INLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND BUT ANYTHING WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND NOT HAVE
MUCH IMPACT. TEMPS INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH THURSDAY.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED FOR CLOUD
GROWTH UP TO THE -30C LEVEL AND WILL LIKELY NEED THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE CASCADES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. SO EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO
BE ISOLATED AT BEST. HOWEVER WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE A STRONG
CELL COULD DUMP A FAIR AMOUNT OF PCPN IN A SHORT TIME. THE PATTERN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ONE CHANGE IN THE MODELS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
DOWN TO 0.6 INCH FROM 1 INCH OVER YESTERDAYS RUN.


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO TRAVEL UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING OUR AREA. THESE IMPULSES BRING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE CASCADES...THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
SHORTWAVES AS MODEL RESOLUTION ACCURACY DECLINES RAPIDLY FURTHER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THESE SMALLER FEATURES. HAVE
DECREASED POPS FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED
ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR STORM CHANCES...AND DECREASED
CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO GREAT MODEL
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND LOCATION. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG IS HUGGING THE COAST AND SOME OF THE
COASTAL VALLEYS WITH IFR CONDITIONS. THE STRATUS MADE IT INTO
KKLS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRATUS BEGINNING
TO CLEAR INLAND...AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST BETWEEN
19 AND 21Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE INLAND
AIRPORTS. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA...MAINLY
SOUTH OF KSLE TODAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. TJ

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT N-NW SURFACE WINDS. CULLEN/TJ

&&

.MARINE...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE WEATHER THIS WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC AS A
THERMAL TROUGH HOLDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS RESULTING
IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OREGON WATERS. GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK.
HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO INCLUDE THE WATERS BEYOND 10 NM SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD.

THE SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL WINDS. STEEP SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
BACKGROUND LONGER PERIOD SEAS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP ON
THE BUOYS...BUT THESE ARE VERY SMALL...1 FOOT OR LESS...AND LESS
SIGNIFICANT TO THE MARINER THAN THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS. THE STEEP SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH AND HAVE
THEREFORE COMBINED THE SEAS. THE SEAS WILL BE THE STEEPEST WHEN
THE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST...DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND NEAR SHORE. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
     PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS AND FROM CASCADE
     HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 291635
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
934 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA...AS A RESULT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS
UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT IS VERY WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE
THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE
CASCADES...MAINLY LANE COUNTY. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL
PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.UPDATE...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME ALTOCUMULUS LIFTING INTO LANE COUNTY
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS INDICATES A BIT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...AND IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED IN ONE OF THESE
CLOUDS EAST OF EUGENE EARLIER THIS MORNING. A SIMILAR ALTOCUMULUS
BUILDUP IS HEADED TOWARD SANTIAM PASS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OUT OF THIS CELL EITHER. THUS WE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES EARLY TODAY AS
WELL AS THIS AFTERNOON.

BELIEVE THE ENVIRONMENT MOVING IN ALOFT OVER EAST LANE COUNTY IS
BETTER CHARACTERIZED BY THE 12Z MEDFORD SOUNDING THAN THE SALEM
SOUNDING. MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE MOISTURE ALOFT VERY
WELL. A WEAK DRY SLOT IS NOTABLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...HEADED
NORTH FROM THE OR/CA BORDER. THIS COULD PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE OREGON CASCADES
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WAS REFLECTED WELL IN THE MORNING
FORECAST AND MADE FEW CHANGES.WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 307 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE B.C. COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE FEATURES
AFFECTING THE WEATHER FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEK. LIGHT
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS. THE MARINE
LAYER REMAINS SHALLOW UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND IS LIMITED TO
THE COASTAL ZONES WITH A LITTLE SEEPAGE UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER.

VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE LOWER 500MB
HEIGHTS FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN THE
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP THE MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE
COAST TODAY. LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND MAY BRING SOME DRIZZLE TO THE
COAST.MARINE STRATUS SHOULD SEEP FURTHER INLAND AND TRY TO EXTEND
INLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND BUT ANYTHING WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND NOT HAVE
MUCH IMPACT. TEMPS INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH THURSDAY.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED FOR CLOUD
GROWTH UP TO THE -30C LEVEL AND WILL LIKELY NEED THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE CASCADES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. SO EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO
BE ISOLATED AT BEST. HOWEVER WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE A STRONG
CELL COULD DUMP A FAIR AMOUNT OF PCPN IN A SHORT TIME. THE PATTERN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ONE CHANGE IN THE MODELS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
DOWN TO 0.6 INCH FROM 1 INCH OVER YESTERDAYS RUN.


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO TRAVEL UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING OUR AREA. THESE IMPULSES BRING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE CASCADES...THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
SHORTWAVES AS MODEL RESOLUTION ACCURACY DECLINES RAPIDLY FURTHER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THESE SMALLER FEATURES. HAVE
DECREASED POPS FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED
ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR STORM CHANCES...AND DECREASED
CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO GREAT MODEL
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND LOCATION. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG IS HUGGING THE COAST AND SOME OF THE
COASTAL VALLEYS WITH IFR CONDITIONS. THE STRATUS MADE IT INTO
KKLS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRATUS BEGINNING
TO CLEAR INLAND...AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST BETWEEN
19 AND 21Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE INLAND
AIRPORTS. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA...MAINLY
SOUTH OF KSLE TODAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. TJ

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT N-NW SURFACE WINDS. CULLEN/TJ

&&

.MARINE...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE WEATHER THIS WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC AS A
THERMAL TROUGH HOLDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS RESULTING
IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OREGON WATERS. GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK.
HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO INCLUDE THE WATERS BEYOND 10 NM SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD.

THE SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL WINDS. STEEP SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
BACKGROUND LONGER PERIOD SEAS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP ON
THE BUOYS...BUT THESE ARE VERY SMALL...1 FOOT OR LESS...AND LESS
SIGNIFICANT TO THE MARINER THAN THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS. THE STEEP SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH AND HAVE
THEREFORE COMBINED THE SEAS. THE SEAS WILL BE THE STEEPEST WHEN
THE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST...DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND NEAR SHORE. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
     PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS AND FROM CASCADE
     HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 291627
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
927 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.



&&

.DISCUSSION...

The Heat Advisory has been expanded this afternoon to include the
Wenatchee area and the Okanogan Valley. Eastern Washington Heat
Advisory Criteria is temperatures of 103 degrees or more.
Elevations below 2000 feet from Oroville to Brewster to Wenatchee
should easily reach criteria this afternoon. The light winds will
make conditions this afternoon particularly stifling today. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: High pressure will continue to keep mostly clear skies
and light winds over the aviation area for the next 24 hours with
just some high clouds moving in from the south. /EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        99  68  96  67  95  69 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  64  94  62  94  64 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Pullman        97  60  94  59  93  61 /   0  10  20  10  10  10
Lewiston      105  72 101  68 100  72 /   0  10  20  20  20  20
Colville      101  60  99  59  98  60 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      94  57  91  56  93  56 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        94  62  91  60  92  63 /   0   0  10  20  10  10
Moses Lake    104  67 101  65  99  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee     102  71 100  70  99  71 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak          103  66 102  65 100  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 291616
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AT LEAST. WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW WILL ALLOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST TO INTRUDE THROUGH THE STRAIT
OF JUAN DE FUCA AND LOWER CHEHALIS GAP DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS GREATER PUGET SOUND WILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED WELL INLAND OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN TENDS TO RESULT IN
VARYING DEGREES OF MOSTLY WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENTS. LOW STRATUS ALONG
THE COAST INTRUDED INTO THE LOWER CHEHALIS GAP AS FAR AS SHELTON AND
ALSO DOWN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND AREAS SURROUNDING THE EAST
ENTRANCE. THESE CLOUDS WILL EASILY BURN BACK TO THE COAST BY MIDDAY.
WITH LACK OF ANY REAL DEEP MARINE INFLUENCE OVER THE INTERIOR AND
LITTLE CHANGE IN 500 MB HEIGHTS OR 850 MB TEMPS...WILL STICK WITH
THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS WHICH SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST...AND AROUND THE STRAIT DUE TO MARINE AIR. HIGHS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM THE WATER INCLUDING THE GREATER PUGET SOUND
SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WARMEST ACROSS THE SW INTERIOR
TO TACOMA AREAS.

THE WESTERLY PUSH IN THE STRAIT MAY BE A BIT STRONGER THIS EVENING
POSSIBLY ENOUGH TO INDUCE GALES. SEE THE MARINE SECTION BELOW. 500
MB HEIGHTS COME DOWN JUST ABOUT 20M WHICH IS NOT TOO SIGNIFICANT AND
850 MB TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSTANT. MARINE AIR MAY FLOOD A BIT
FURTHER INLAND TOWARD THE N PUGET SOUND AND AREAS SURROUNDING THE
STRAIT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE AREAS WILL SEE MORE COOLING.
CENTRAL AND S PUGET SOUND...AND THE SW INTERIOR WILL PROBABLY REACH
THE LOW TO MID 80S.

500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN LITTLE CHANGED INTO THURSDAY AND ONSHORE FLOW
APPEARS WEAK. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S COAST AND AROUND THE
STRAIT WILL CONTINUE WITH WARMER HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AT SPOTS AWAY FROM THE WATERS. BEYOND THURSDAY THERE
COULD BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST DISCUSSED BELOW. WILL
EVALUATION THE FULL SUITE OF 12/18Z MODELS TODAY AND MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED TO THE LONG RANGE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MERCER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS 330 AM DISCUSSION...AFTER A FEW RUNS OF
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED MODELS A COUPLE OF WRINKLES IN THE
PROGS THIS MORNING. THE GFS HAS CHANGED SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH SOME WEAK TROUGHINESS OVER THE AREA. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE
STILL HIGH...MID 580S DMS SO THERE IS STILL NO PRECIPITATION
FORECAST. THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE FLOW ALOFT COULD RESULT IN A
LITTLE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE ECMWF BRINGS A SMALL LOW UP FROM THE SOUTH
ON SATURDAY WITH PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE CANADIAN ALSO HAS THIS FEATURE ALTHOUGH IT IS MUCH MORE
DRIER THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. WITH THESE SOLUTIONS BEING NEW TO THE
MODEL RUNS WILL STAY WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION WHICH
KEEPS THE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL GOING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. FELTON

&&

.CLIMATE...TODAY MARKS 5 YEARS SINCE THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS SET AT SEA-TAC WAS SET ALONG WITH OTHER RECORD
HIGHS. SEATTLE(SEA-TAC) 103...NWS SEATTLE 105...CENTRALIA
107...OLYMPIA 104...ELMA 104...EVERETT 100...BELLINGHAM
96...ABERDEEN 95.

IN ADDITION...A TOTAL OF 0.31 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED ON
THIS DAY SINCE RECORDS STARTED AT SEATTLE-TACOMA AIRPORT IN 1945
MAKING THIS THE DRIEST DAY OF THE YEAR IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL
FOR THE DAY AT SEA-TAC.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST COMBINED WITH A TROUGH ALONG ABOUT 140W WILL GIVE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURE EAST
OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THE AIR MASS IS
DRY AND STABLE...EXCEPT FOR A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST.

AT 8 AM THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EXTENDS
INLAND OVER THE COASTAL ZONES AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP
TO ABOUT SHELTON. SOME FOG AND VERY LOW STRATUS IS ALSO SEEN
EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TO NORTHERN
WHIDBEY ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN ISLANDS. WHERE THE FOG AND
STRATUS ARE SEEN...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED. OTHER
LOCATIONS ARE CLEAR. THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL RAPIDLY BURN BACK TO
THE COASTLINE BY ABOUT 20Z.

LATEST FORECAST MODELS SHOW ONSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASING RAPIDLY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG HEATING TAKES PLACE EAST OF THE
CASCADES. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONGER THAN LAST EVENING AND
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRATUS AND FOG PUSHING INLAND FARTHER THAN
THIS MORNING. THE TERMINAL MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WILL BE
KPAE...BUT KOLM MAY ALSO GET SOME FOG AND STRATUS WED MORNING. ANY
LOCATION GETTING STRATUS WILL LIKELY SEE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FOR
A FEW HOURS WED MORNING WHILE OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN CLEAR.
ALBRECHT

KSEA...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
NW 6 TO 9 KT AROUND 20Z THEN WILL VEER TO NE 5-7 KT AFTER 04Z THIS
EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS COMBINED
WITH LOWER PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE VARYING DEGREES
OF ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THAN IT HAS BEEN OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS. SO...A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 5 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO THE GALE WARNING AREA...THE WEST
ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT...THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY
INLET. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL GIVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE WED THROUGH SAT. SLIGHTLY
WEAKER ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL STILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE
     TO THE STRAIT 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 5 AM WEDNESDAY.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     TONIGHT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
     FUCA...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY INLET 5 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON UNTIL 5 AM WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML











000
FXUS66 KSEW 291616
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AT LEAST. WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW WILL ALLOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST TO INTRUDE THROUGH THE STRAIT
OF JUAN DE FUCA AND LOWER CHEHALIS GAP DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS GREATER PUGET SOUND WILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED WELL INLAND OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN TENDS TO RESULT IN
VARYING DEGREES OF MOSTLY WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENTS. LOW STRATUS ALONG
THE COAST INTRUDED INTO THE LOWER CHEHALIS GAP AS FAR AS SHELTON AND
ALSO DOWN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND AREAS SURROUNDING THE EAST
ENTRANCE. THESE CLOUDS WILL EASILY BURN BACK TO THE COAST BY MIDDAY.
WITH LACK OF ANY REAL DEEP MARINE INFLUENCE OVER THE INTERIOR AND
LITTLE CHANGE IN 500 MB HEIGHTS OR 850 MB TEMPS...WILL STICK WITH
THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS WHICH SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST...AND AROUND THE STRAIT DUE TO MARINE AIR. HIGHS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM THE WATER INCLUDING THE GREATER PUGET SOUND
SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WARMEST ACROSS THE SW INTERIOR
TO TACOMA AREAS.

THE WESTERLY PUSH IN THE STRAIT MAY BE A BIT STRONGER THIS EVENING
POSSIBLY ENOUGH TO INDUCE GALES. SEE THE MARINE SECTION BELOW. 500
MB HEIGHTS COME DOWN JUST ABOUT 20M WHICH IS NOT TOO SIGNIFICANT AND
850 MB TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSTANT. MARINE AIR MAY FLOOD A BIT
FURTHER INLAND TOWARD THE N PUGET SOUND AND AREAS SURROUNDING THE
STRAIT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE AREAS WILL SEE MORE COOLING.
CENTRAL AND S PUGET SOUND...AND THE SW INTERIOR WILL PROBABLY REACH
THE LOW TO MID 80S.

500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN LITTLE CHANGED INTO THURSDAY AND ONSHORE FLOW
APPEARS WEAK. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S COAST AND AROUND THE
STRAIT WILL CONTINUE WITH WARMER HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AT SPOTS AWAY FROM THE WATERS. BEYOND THURSDAY THERE
COULD BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST DISCUSSED BELOW. WILL
EVALUATION THE FULL SUITE OF 12/18Z MODELS TODAY AND MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED TO THE LONG RANGE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MERCER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS 330 AM DISCUSSION...AFTER A FEW RUNS OF
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED MODELS A COUPLE OF WRINKLES IN THE
PROGS THIS MORNING. THE GFS HAS CHANGED SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH SOME WEAK TROUGHINESS OVER THE AREA. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE
STILL HIGH...MID 580S DMS SO THERE IS STILL NO PRECIPITATION
FORECAST. THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE FLOW ALOFT COULD RESULT IN A
LITTLE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE ECMWF BRINGS A SMALL LOW UP FROM THE SOUTH
ON SATURDAY WITH PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE CANADIAN ALSO HAS THIS FEATURE ALTHOUGH IT IS MUCH MORE
DRIER THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. WITH THESE SOLUTIONS BEING NEW TO THE
MODEL RUNS WILL STAY WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION WHICH
KEEPS THE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL GOING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. FELTON

&&

.CLIMATE...TODAY MARKS 5 YEARS SINCE THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS SET AT SEA-TAC WAS SET ALONG WITH OTHER RECORD
HIGHS. SEATTLE(SEA-TAC) 103...NWS SEATTLE 105...CENTRALIA
107...OLYMPIA 104...ELMA 104...EVERETT 100...BELLINGHAM
96...ABERDEEN 95.

IN ADDITION...A TOTAL OF 0.31 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED ON
THIS DAY SINCE RECORDS STARTED AT SEATTLE-TACOMA AIRPORT IN 1945
MAKING THIS THE DRIEST DAY OF THE YEAR IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL
FOR THE DAY AT SEA-TAC.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST COMBINED WITH A TROUGH ALONG ABOUT 140W WILL GIVE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURE EAST
OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THE AIR MASS IS
DRY AND STABLE...EXCEPT FOR A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST.

AT 8 AM THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EXTENDS
INLAND OVER THE COASTAL ZONES AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP
TO ABOUT SHELTON. SOME FOG AND VERY LOW STRATUS IS ALSO SEEN
EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TO NORTHERN
WHIDBEY ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN ISLANDS. WHERE THE FOG AND
STRATUS ARE SEEN...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED. OTHER
LOCATIONS ARE CLEAR. THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL RAPIDLY BURN BACK TO
THE COASTLINE BY ABOUT 20Z.

LATEST FORECAST MODELS SHOW ONSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASING RAPIDLY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG HEATING TAKES PLACE EAST OF THE
CASCADES. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONGER THAN LAST EVENING AND
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRATUS AND FOG PUSHING INLAND FARTHER THAN
THIS MORNING. THE TERMINAL MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WILL BE
KPAE...BUT KOLM MAY ALSO GET SOME FOG AND STRATUS WED MORNING. ANY
LOCATION GETTING STRATUS WILL LIKELY SEE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FOR
A FEW HOURS WED MORNING WHILE OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN CLEAR.
ALBRECHT

KSEA...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
NW 6 TO 9 KT AROUND 20Z THEN WILL VEER TO NE 5-7 KT AFTER 04Z THIS
EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS COMBINED
WITH LOWER PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE VARYING DEGREES
OF ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THAN IT HAS BEEN OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS. SO...A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 5 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO THE GALE WARNING AREA...THE WEST
ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT...THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY
INLET. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL GIVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE WED THROUGH SAT. SLIGHTLY
WEAKER ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL STILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE
     TO THE STRAIT 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 5 AM WEDNESDAY.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     TONIGHT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
     FUCA...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY INLET 5 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON UNTIL 5 AM WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KOTX 291122
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
422 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...The ridge of high pressure will continue
to dominate the weather pattern across the region. Hot and dry
conditions will prevail with today likely to be the hottest day.
Triple digit temperatures will be common for valley locations. A
Heat Advisory remains in effect for the lower basin and portions
of the Washington Palouse and the Lewis-Clark Valley. Weak
disturbances will ride along the ridge Wednesday and Thursday and
if enough monsoonal moisture gets caught up in the flow we could
see showers and thunderstorms pop up across the southeast zones.
The NAM is the most generous developing QPF into the forecast
area. Both the GFS and EC are dry Wednesday but do bring precip
right up to our southern border for Thursday. For now the forecast
will continue with slight chance thunderstorms from the NE Blue
Mts into the Central Panhandle Mts. The increasing cloud cover
streaming up from the south will help to bring daytime
temperatures down a couple of degrees for Wednesday and Thursday
but will act to keep overnight temperatures quite warm. This will
be especially true for the mid-slopes where overnight RH recovery
will be fair to poor. The one fortunate effect of this persistent
ridge is that winds will continue to be light and terrain driven.
/Kelch

Friday and Saturday: This period has the potential to very active.
The models are indicating a disturbance associated with remnants
of Tropical Storm Hernan moving through the region. The ECMWF has
been more consistent with bringing the disturbance through the
Pacific Northwest than GFS. With that in mind, the forecast leans
toward the ECMWF which brings more of the moisture with the system
further West towards the Central Columbia Basin. This led to an
increase in the POPs and cloud cover for the period. Afternoon
convection will lead to possible thunderstorms and a few
hundredths of an inch of rain to the region. The heavier rainfall
will be in Eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. The max
temperatures were lowered a couple of degrees to allow for the
increased cloud cover. Temperatures will still in the 90s for low
lying locations.

Sunday through Tuesday: Behind this system, a slight ridge pattern
will build in the Pacific Northwest. This will lead to a drying
trend in the region and decreasing chances of precip for the
Inland Northwest. Temperatures will still be in the 90s for the
period. /JDC


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: High pressure will continue to keep mostly clear skies
and light winds over the aviation area for the next 24 hours with
just some high clouds moving in from the south. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        99  68  96  67  95  69 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  64  94  62  94  64 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Pullman        97  60  94  59  93  61 /   0  10  20  10  10  10
Lewiston      105  72 101  68 100  72 /   0  10  20  20  20  20
Colville      101  60  99  59  98  60 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      94  57  91  56  93  56 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        94  62  91  60  92  63 /   0   0  10  20  10  10
Moses Lake    104  67 101  65  99  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee     102  71 100  70  99  71 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak          103  66 102  65 100  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Washington Palouse.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 291122
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
422 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...The ridge of high pressure will continue
to dominate the weather pattern across the region. Hot and dry
conditions will prevail with today likely to be the hottest day.
Triple digit temperatures will be common for valley locations. A
Heat Advisory remains in effect for the lower basin and portions
of the Washington Palouse and the Lewis-Clark Valley. Weak
disturbances will ride along the ridge Wednesday and Thursday and
if enough monsoonal moisture gets caught up in the flow we could
see showers and thunderstorms pop up across the southeast zones.
The NAM is the most generous developing QPF into the forecast
area. Both the GFS and EC are dry Wednesday but do bring precip
right up to our southern border for Thursday. For now the forecast
will continue with slight chance thunderstorms from the NE Blue
Mts into the Central Panhandle Mts. The increasing cloud cover
streaming up from the south will help to bring daytime
temperatures down a couple of degrees for Wednesday and Thursday
but will act to keep overnight temperatures quite warm. This will
be especially true for the mid-slopes where overnight RH recovery
will be fair to poor. The one fortunate effect of this persistent
ridge is that winds will continue to be light and terrain driven.
/Kelch

Friday and Saturday: This period has the potential to very active.
The models are indicating a disturbance associated with remnants
of Tropical Storm Hernan moving through the region. The ECMWF has
been more consistent with bringing the disturbance through the
Pacific Northwest than GFS. With that in mind, the forecast leans
toward the ECMWF which brings more of the moisture with the system
further West towards the Central Columbia Basin. This led to an
increase in the POPs and cloud cover for the period. Afternoon
convection will lead to possible thunderstorms and a few
hundredths of an inch of rain to the region. The heavier rainfall
will be in Eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. The max
temperatures were lowered a couple of degrees to allow for the
increased cloud cover. Temperatures will still in the 90s for low
lying locations.

Sunday through Tuesday: Behind this system, a slight ridge pattern
will build in the Pacific Northwest. This will lead to a drying
trend in the region and decreasing chances of precip for the
Inland Northwest. Temperatures will still be in the 90s for the
period. /JDC


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: High pressure will continue to keep mostly clear skies
and light winds over the aviation area for the next 24 hours with
just some high clouds moving in from the south. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        99  68  96  67  95  69 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  64  94  62  94  64 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Pullman        97  60  94  59  93  61 /   0  10  20  10  10  10
Lewiston      105  72 101  68 100  72 /   0  10  20  20  20  20
Colville      101  60  99  59  98  60 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      94  57  91  56  93  56 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        94  62  91  60  92  63 /   0   0  10  20  10  10
Moses Lake    104  67 101  65  99  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee     102  71 100  70  99  71 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak          103  66 102  65 100  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Washington Palouse.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 291122
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
422 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...The ridge of high pressure will continue
to dominate the weather pattern across the region. Hot and dry
conditions will prevail with today likely to be the hottest day.
Triple digit temperatures will be common for valley locations. A
Heat Advisory remains in effect for the lower basin and portions
of the Washington Palouse and the Lewis-Clark Valley. Weak
disturbances will ride along the ridge Wednesday and Thursday and
if enough monsoonal moisture gets caught up in the flow we could
see showers and thunderstorms pop up across the southeast zones.
The NAM is the most generous developing QPF into the forecast
area. Both the GFS and EC are dry Wednesday but do bring precip
right up to our southern border for Thursday. For now the forecast
will continue with slight chance thunderstorms from the NE Blue
Mts into the Central Panhandle Mts. The increasing cloud cover
streaming up from the south will help to bring daytime
temperatures down a couple of degrees for Wednesday and Thursday
but will act to keep overnight temperatures quite warm. This will
be especially true for the mid-slopes where overnight RH recovery
will be fair to poor. The one fortunate effect of this persistent
ridge is that winds will continue to be light and terrain driven.
/Kelch

Friday and Saturday: This period has the potential to very active.
The models are indicating a disturbance associated with remnants
of Tropical Storm Hernan moving through the region. The ECMWF has
been more consistent with bringing the disturbance through the
Pacific Northwest than GFS. With that in mind, the forecast leans
toward the ECMWF which brings more of the moisture with the system
further West towards the Central Columbia Basin. This led to an
increase in the POPs and cloud cover for the period. Afternoon
convection will lead to possible thunderstorms and a few
hundredths of an inch of rain to the region. The heavier rainfall
will be in Eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. The max
temperatures were lowered a couple of degrees to allow for the
increased cloud cover. Temperatures will still in the 90s for low
lying locations.

Sunday through Tuesday: Behind this system, a slight ridge pattern
will build in the Pacific Northwest. This will lead to a drying
trend in the region and decreasing chances of precip for the
Inland Northwest. Temperatures will still be in the 90s for the
period. /JDC


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: High pressure will continue to keep mostly clear skies
and light winds over the aviation area for the next 24 hours with
just some high clouds moving in from the south. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        99  68  96  67  95  69 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  64  94  62  94  64 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Pullman        97  60  94  59  93  61 /   0  10  20  10  10  10
Lewiston      105  72 101  68 100  72 /   0  10  20  20  20  20
Colville      101  60  99  59  98  60 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      94  57  91  56  93  56 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        94  62  91  60  92  63 /   0   0  10  20  10  10
Moses Lake    104  67 101  65  99  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee     102  71 100  70  99  71 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak          103  66 102  65 100  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Washington Palouse.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 291122
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
422 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...The ridge of high pressure will continue
to dominate the weather pattern across the region. Hot and dry
conditions will prevail with today likely to be the hottest day.
Triple digit temperatures will be common for valley locations. A
Heat Advisory remains in effect for the lower basin and portions
of the Washington Palouse and the Lewis-Clark Valley. Weak
disturbances will ride along the ridge Wednesday and Thursday and
if enough monsoonal moisture gets caught up in the flow we could
see showers and thunderstorms pop up across the southeast zones.
The NAM is the most generous developing QPF into the forecast
area. Both the GFS and EC are dry Wednesday but do bring precip
right up to our southern border for Thursday. For now the forecast
will continue with slight chance thunderstorms from the NE Blue
Mts into the Central Panhandle Mts. The increasing cloud cover
streaming up from the south will help to bring daytime
temperatures down a couple of degrees for Wednesday and Thursday
but will act to keep overnight temperatures quite warm. This will
be especially true for the mid-slopes where overnight RH recovery
will be fair to poor. The one fortunate effect of this persistent
ridge is that winds will continue to be light and terrain driven.
/Kelch

Friday and Saturday: This period has the potential to very active.
The models are indicating a disturbance associated with remnants
of Tropical Storm Hernan moving through the region. The ECMWF has
been more consistent with bringing the disturbance through the
Pacific Northwest than GFS. With that in mind, the forecast leans
toward the ECMWF which brings more of the moisture with the system
further West towards the Central Columbia Basin. This led to an
increase in the POPs and cloud cover for the period. Afternoon
convection will lead to possible thunderstorms and a few
hundredths of an inch of rain to the region. The heavier rainfall
will be in Eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. The max
temperatures were lowered a couple of degrees to allow for the
increased cloud cover. Temperatures will still in the 90s for low
lying locations.

Sunday through Tuesday: Behind this system, a slight ridge pattern
will build in the Pacific Northwest. This will lead to a drying
trend in the region and decreasing chances of precip for the
Inland Northwest. Temperatures will still be in the 90s for the
period. /JDC


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: High pressure will continue to keep mostly clear skies
and light winds over the aviation area for the next 24 hours with
just some high clouds moving in from the south. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        99  68  96  67  95  69 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  64  94  62  94  64 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Pullman        97  60  94  59  93  61 /   0  10  20  10  10  10
Lewiston      105  72 101  68 100  72 /   0  10  20  20  20  20
Colville      101  60  99  59  98  60 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      94  57  91  56  93  56 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        94  62  91  60  92  63 /   0   0  10  20  10  10
Moses Lake    104  67 101  65  99  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee     102  71 100  70  99  71 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak          103  66 102  65 100  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Washington Palouse.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 291059
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
355 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AT LEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SEATTLE 103...NWS SEATTLE 105...CENTRALIA 107...
OLYMPIA 104...ELMA 104...EVERETT 100...BELLINGHAM 96...ABERDEEN 95.
THESE WERE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FIVE YEARS AGO ON THIS DAY.
ARGUABLY THE WARMEST DAY ON RECORD IN WESTERN WASHINGTON. THIS WILL
NOT BE THE CASE TODAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS ALONG THE COAST MOVING SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF STRATUS
COMING DOWN THE STRAIT. CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM NEAR 50 TO THE MID 60S IN THE METRO
AREA AT 3 AM.

SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE A LITTLE MORE ONSHORE THIS MORNING VERSUS THE
LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS BUT STILL NOT VERY STRONG SO DON`T EXPECT
THE STRATUS TO GET MUCH FURTHER THAN SHELTON IN THE SOUTH AND EXPECT
THE STRATUS TO REMAIN IN THE STRAIT TO THE NORTH. NO CHANGE TO THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH WESTERN WASHINGTON ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. 500 MB HEIGHTS
STILL IN THE MID 580 DMS. MODEL 850 MB TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...PLUS 15 TO 18C. WITH THE ONSHORE GRADIENTS ONLY SLIGHTLY
STRONGER AND THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT SIMILAR NOT GOING FOR MUCH IN
THE WAY OF COOLING OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY WITH 80S COMMON ONCE
AGAIN AND THE WARMEST LOCATIONS PUSHING 90 DEGREES.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT...TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN IN THE MID 580 DMS WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION OVER
THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADES MINIMAL. AT THE SURFACE ANOTHER
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING FOR THE INTERIOR
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRATUS BEING A LITTLE MORE
PERSISTENT ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING HOURS. THURSDAY LOOKS TO
BE A REPEAT OF WEDNESDAY. EACH NIGHT THE MARINE STRATUS WILL PUSH
WEAKLY INLAND FROM THE COAST JUST REACHING WHIDBEY ISLAND THROUGH
THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND JUST TO THE SOUTH END OF PUGET
SOUND AND HOOD CANAL THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP. THE STRATUS WILL BURN
BACK TO THE COAST QUICKLY EACH MORNING.

.LONG TERM...AFTER A FEW RUNS OF GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED
MODELS A COUPLE OF WRINKLES IN THE PROGS THIS MORNING. THE GFS HAS
CHANGED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME WEAK TROUGHINESS OVER
THE AREA. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE STILL HIGH...MID 580S DMS SO THERE IS
STILL NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
COULD RESULT IN A LITTLE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE ECMWF BRINGS A SMALL LOW
UP FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY WITH PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. THE CANADIAN ALSO HAS THIS FEATURE ALTHOUGH IT
IS MUCH MORE DRIER THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. WITH THESE SOLUTIONS
BEING NEW TO THE MODEL RUNS WILL STAY WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS
SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GOING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
FELTON

&&

.CLIMATE...A TOTAL OF 0.31 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED ON THIS
DAY SINCE RECORDS STARTED AT SEATTLE-TACOMA AIRPORT IN 1945 MAKING
THIS THE DRIEST DAY OF THE YEAR IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL FOR THE
DAY AT SEA-TAC.

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL PERSIST. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE
INLAND. AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE THE AIR IS DRY AND
STABLE.

KSEA...CLEAR WITH A NLY BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE INLAND
WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME NW BREEZE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND A WLY SEA BREEZE IN THE STRAIT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS
OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE TWO SOUTHERN INNERMOST
COASTAL WATERS ZONES...JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER...AND FOR THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KSEW 291059
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
355 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AT LEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SEATTLE 103...NWS SEATTLE 105...CENTRALIA 107...
OLYMPIA 104...ELMA 104...EVERETT 100...BELLINGHAM 96...ABERDEEN 95.
THESE WERE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FIVE YEARS AGO ON THIS DAY.
ARGUABLY THE WARMEST DAY ON RECORD IN WESTERN WASHINGTON. THIS WILL
NOT BE THE CASE TODAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS ALONG THE COAST MOVING SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF STRATUS
COMING DOWN THE STRAIT. CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM NEAR 50 TO THE MID 60S IN THE METRO
AREA AT 3 AM.

SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE A LITTLE MORE ONSHORE THIS MORNING VERSUS THE
LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS BUT STILL NOT VERY STRONG SO DON`T EXPECT
THE STRATUS TO GET MUCH FURTHER THAN SHELTON IN THE SOUTH AND EXPECT
THE STRATUS TO REMAIN IN THE STRAIT TO THE NORTH. NO CHANGE TO THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH WESTERN WASHINGTON ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. 500 MB HEIGHTS
STILL IN THE MID 580 DMS. MODEL 850 MB TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...PLUS 15 TO 18C. WITH THE ONSHORE GRADIENTS ONLY SLIGHTLY
STRONGER AND THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT SIMILAR NOT GOING FOR MUCH IN
THE WAY OF COOLING OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY WITH 80S COMMON ONCE
AGAIN AND THE WARMEST LOCATIONS PUSHING 90 DEGREES.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT...TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN IN THE MID 580 DMS WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION OVER
THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADES MINIMAL. AT THE SURFACE ANOTHER
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING FOR THE INTERIOR
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRATUS BEING A LITTLE MORE
PERSISTENT ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING HOURS. THURSDAY LOOKS TO
BE A REPEAT OF WEDNESDAY. EACH NIGHT THE MARINE STRATUS WILL PUSH
WEAKLY INLAND FROM THE COAST JUST REACHING WHIDBEY ISLAND THROUGH
THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND JUST TO THE SOUTH END OF PUGET
SOUND AND HOOD CANAL THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP. THE STRATUS WILL BURN
BACK TO THE COAST QUICKLY EACH MORNING.

.LONG TERM...AFTER A FEW RUNS OF GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED
MODELS A COUPLE OF WRINKLES IN THE PROGS THIS MORNING. THE GFS HAS
CHANGED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME WEAK TROUGHINESS OVER
THE AREA. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE STILL HIGH...MID 580S DMS SO THERE IS
STILL NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
COULD RESULT IN A LITTLE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE ECMWF BRINGS A SMALL LOW
UP FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY WITH PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. THE CANADIAN ALSO HAS THIS FEATURE ALTHOUGH IT
IS MUCH MORE DRIER THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. WITH THESE SOLUTIONS
BEING NEW TO THE MODEL RUNS WILL STAY WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS
SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GOING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
FELTON

&&

.CLIMATE...A TOTAL OF 0.31 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED ON THIS
DAY SINCE RECORDS STARTED AT SEATTLE-TACOMA AIRPORT IN 1945 MAKING
THIS THE DRIEST DAY OF THE YEAR IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL FOR THE
DAY AT SEA-TAC.

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL PERSIST. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE
INLAND. AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE THE AIR IS DRY AND
STABLE.

KSEA...CLEAR WITH A NLY BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE INLAND
WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME NW BREEZE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND A WLY SEA BREEZE IN THE STRAIT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS
OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE TWO SOUTHERN INNERMOST
COASTAL WATERS ZONES...JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER...AND FOR THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KPQR 291009
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
307 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF
THE B.C. COAST. THE RESULTING LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OREGON CASCADES
IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.  THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW BUT
IS MORE SOLID...WITH A LITTLE SEEPAGE THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS
EXPECTED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE B.C. COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE FEATURES
AFFECTING THE WEATHER FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEK. LIGHT
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS. THE MARINE
LAYER REMAINS SHALLOW UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND IS LIMITED TO
THE COASTAL ZONES WITH A LITTLE SEEPAGE UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER.

VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE LOWER 500MB
HEIGHTS FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN THE
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP THE MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE
COAST TODAY. LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND MAY BRING SOME DRIZZLE TO THE
COAST.MARINE STRATUS SHOULD SEEP FURTHER INLAND AND TRY TO EXTEND
INLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND BUT ANYTHING WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND NOT HAVE
MUCH IMPACT. TEMPS INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH THURSDAY.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED FOR CLOUD
GROWTH UP TO THE -30C LEVEL AND WILL LIKELY NEED THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE CASCADES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. SO EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO
BE ISOLATED AT BEST. HOWEVER WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE A STRONG
CELL COULD DUMP A FAIR AMOUNT OF PCPN IN A SHORT TIME. THE PATTERN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ONE CHANGE IN THE MODELS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
DOWN TO 0.6 INCH FROM 1 INCH OVER YESTERDAYS RUN.


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO TRAVEL UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING OUR AREA. THESE IMPULSES BRING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE CASCADES...THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
SHORTWAVES AS MODEL RESOLUTION ACCURACY DECLINES RAPIDLY FURTHER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THESE SMALLER FEATURES. HAVE
DECREASED POPS FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED
ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR STORM CHANCES...AND DECREASED
CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO GREAT MODEL
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND LOCATION. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY THIS
MORNING ALONG THE S WA AND N AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST. THIS
COASTAL STRATUS SHOULD BURN BACK OFFSHORE BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AROUND 19-20Z. MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST ALONG KONP...BUT DO EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR AT
LEAST BRIEFLY. COASTAL STRATUS RETURNS AGAIN BY LATE TONIGHT. GUSTY
N WINDS ALONG THE COAST 19Z-03Z. DRY SW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRES
SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TAF SITES NEXT
24 HOURS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT N-NW SURFACE WINDS. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...FEW CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE WATERS THIS
WEEK AS N TO NW FLOW REMAINS IN CONTROL GIVEN HIGH PRES OVER THE
NE PAC AND A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROF OVER NW CALIFORNIA AND
EXTREME SW OREGON. A FEW SUBTLE CHANGES IN SURFACE PRES
GRADIENT...BUT LOOKS LIKE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONGEST OVER THE
INNER WATERS. WITH ONLY SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN SURFACE PATTERN FOR
TODAY...MAINTAINED A LARGELY PERSISTENCE BASED FCST FOR WINDS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE INNER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND EXPECT WIND GUSTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO TOP OUT
AROUND 20 KT THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW OCCASIONAL SMALL CRAFT
GUSTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 4 TO 6 FT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
ONLY SMALL BACKGROUND SWELL. THUS SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND
DOMINATED THROUGH THE WEEK AND CONDITIONS MAY BE CHOPPY AT
TIMES...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...IN
RESPONSE TO THE STRONGEST WINDS.   CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
   PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
   TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 290929
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
229 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...The ridge of high pressure will continue
to dominate the weather pattern across the region. Hot and dry
conditions will prevail with today likely to be the hottest day.
Triple digit temperatures will be common for valley locations. A
Heat Advisory remains in effect for the lower basin and portions
of the Washington Palouse and the Lewis-Clark Valley. Weak
disturbances will ride along the ridge Wednesday and Thursday and
if enough monsoonal moisture gets caught up in the flow we could
see showers and thunderstorms pop up across the southeast zones.
The NAM is the most generous developing QPF into the forecast
area. Both the GFS and EC are dry Wednesday but do bring precip
right up to our southern border for Thursday. For now the forecast
will continue with slight chance thunderstorms from the NE Blue
Mts into the Central Panhandle Mts. The increasing cloud cover
streaming up from the south will help to bring daytime
temperatures down a couple of degrees for Wednesday and Thursday
but will act to keep overnight temperatures quite warm. This will
be especially true for the mid-slopes where overnight RH recovery
will be fair to poor. The one fortunate effect of this persistent
ridge is that winds will continue to be light and terrain driven.
/Kelch

Friday and Saturday: This period has the potential to very active.
The models are indicating a disturbance associated with remnantsof
Tropical Storm Hernan moving through the region. The ECMWF has
been more consistent with bringing the disturbance through the
Pacific Northwest than GFS. With that in mind, the forecast leans
toward the ECMWF which brings more of the moisture with the system
further West towards the Central Columbia Basin. This led to an
increase in the POPs and cloud cover for the period. Afternoon
convection will lead to possible thunderstorms and a few
hundredths of an inch of rain to the region. The heavier rainfall
will be in Eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. The max
temperatures were lowered a couple of degrees to allow for the
increased cloud cover. Temperatures will still in the 90s for low
lying locations.

Sunday through Tuesday: Behind this system, a slight ridge pattern
will build in the Pacific Northwest. This will lead to a drying
trend in the region and decreasing chances of precip for the
Inland Northwest. Temperatures will still be in the 90s for the
period. /JDC


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure will continue to keep generally clear
skies and light winds over the aviation area for the next
24 hours. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        99  68  96  67  95  69 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  64  94  62  94  64 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Pullman        97  60  94  59  93  61 /   0  10  20  10  10  10
Lewiston      105  72 101  68 100  72 /   0  10  20  20  20  20
Colville      101  60  99  59  98  60 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      94  57  91  56  93  56 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        94  62  91  60  92  63 /   0   0  10  20  10  10
Moses Lake    104  67 101  65  99  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee     102  71 100  70  99  71 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak          103  66 102  65 100  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Washington Palouse.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 290929
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
229 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...The ridge of high pressure will continue
to dominate the weather pattern across the region. Hot and dry
conditions will prevail with today likely to be the hottest day.
Triple digit temperatures will be common for valley locations. A
Heat Advisory remains in effect for the lower basin and portions
of the Washington Palouse and the Lewis-Clark Valley. Weak
disturbances will ride along the ridge Wednesday and Thursday and
if enough monsoonal moisture gets caught up in the flow we could
see showers and thunderstorms pop up across the southeast zones.
The NAM is the most generous developing QPF into the forecast
area. Both the GFS and EC are dry Wednesday but do bring precip
right up to our southern border for Thursday. For now the forecast
will continue with slight chance thunderstorms from the NE Blue
Mts into the Central Panhandle Mts. The increasing cloud cover
streaming up from the south will help to bring daytime
temperatures down a couple of degrees for Wednesday and Thursday
but will act to keep overnight temperatures quite warm. This will
be especially true for the mid-slopes where overnight RH recovery
will be fair to poor. The one fortunate effect of this persistent
ridge is that winds will continue to be light and terrain driven.
/Kelch

Friday and Saturday: This period has the potential to very active.
The models are indicating a disturbance associated with remnantsof
Tropical Storm Hernan moving through the region. The ECMWF has
been more consistent with bringing the disturbance through the
Pacific Northwest than GFS. With that in mind, the forecast leans
toward the ECMWF which brings more of the moisture with the system
further West towards the Central Columbia Basin. This led to an
increase in the POPs and cloud cover for the period. Afternoon
convection will lead to possible thunderstorms and a few
hundredths of an inch of rain to the region. The heavier rainfall
will be in Eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. The max
temperatures were lowered a couple of degrees to allow for the
increased cloud cover. Temperatures will still in the 90s for low
lying locations.

Sunday through Tuesday: Behind this system, a slight ridge pattern
will build in the Pacific Northwest. This will lead to a drying
trend in the region and decreasing chances of precip for the
Inland Northwest. Temperatures will still be in the 90s for the
period. /JDC


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure will continue to keep generally clear
skies and light winds over the aviation area for the next
24 hours. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        99  68  96  67  95  69 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  64  94  62  94  64 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Pullman        97  60  94  59  93  61 /   0  10  20  10  10  10
Lewiston      105  72 101  68 100  72 /   0  10  20  20  20  20
Colville      101  60  99  59  98  60 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      94  57  91  56  93  56 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        94  62  91  60  92  63 /   0   0  10  20  10  10
Moses Lake    104  67 101  65  99  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee     102  71 100  70  99  71 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak          103  66 102  65 100  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 290453
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
953 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.Tonight...Quiet and mild weather expected tonight due to strong
upper level ridge persisting over the region. Skies will
generally be clear as weak upper level disturbance currently over
extreme southeast Washington shifts into western Montana. Light
winds will prevail while relative humidity recoveries will be
quite poor over the mid-slopes and ridges. fx

Tuesday and Wednesday: The ridge will be in full control over the
Inland Northwest midweek, with continued hot temperatures
expected. Tuesday looks to be the hottest day of the week, as 850
mb temperatures are around 27 degrees Celsius. Little in the way
of cloud cover will get in the way, and not much breeze will be
present to make it feel a little "cooler." Expect whatever high
temperatures you experience to day (Monday) to go up another
couple of degrees, but then fall a few degrees for Wednesday
afternoon. This is in response to an increase in cloud cover as
monsoonal moisture overspreads eastern portions of the region.
Temperatures will likely begin the day on Wednesday on the warm
side, as mid-level cloud cover increases beginning Tuesday night
(and continues into Wednesday). A weak disturbance embedded in
the weak flow aloft may be enough to trigger some afternoon
showers and thunderstorms. Any precipitation would be more likely
over far eastern Washington into the Idaho Panhandle. This is not
a strong disturbance so widespread precipitation is not expected.
However, with the presence of thunderstorms, some new fire starts
are possible. But with increased moisture, hopefully any
thunderstorm would stay on the wet side. ty

Wednesday evening through Monday...Longwave ridge with axis
placement to the east over Central Montana remains in place due to
longwave trof/low remaining in place offshore and in the vicinity
of the Gulf of Alaska and a similar stagnant trof remaining over
northeast North America which essentially keeps the ridge from
moving anywhere. This persistent pattern allows for a persistent
hot forecast for temperatures and the potential for shortwave
disturbances of varying intensity to run up under or along the
west side of the ridge axis in a trajectory from the south or
southwest and possibly kick off thunderstorms through the
interval. As it stands now there is run to run model consistency
in passing such disturbances through the area in the form of a
negatively tilted trof rotating around the periphery of the Gulf
of Alaska low on Friday, otherwise there have been spottier
depictions in the models of smaller disturbances with limited
moisture/energy/lift coming up from the south. With this in mind
the pops and sky cover ramp up highest Friday and continue on into
through the remainder of the forecast with the idea the longwave
ridge axis should be further east once the Friday negatively
tilted trof passages which allows for a slightly better storm
track for disturbances to move up from the South/Southwest.
One thing very interesting to note is discussion about the 12Z
ECMWF bringing a closed wet circulation up from the south for the
weekend. If one rocks a 12Z ECMWF 500mb height, vorticity, and
QPF loop back and forth it does seem to look like this feature is
built upon bits of old remant moisture and energy ejected out of
tropical storm Hernan which is out if the East Pacific off the
coast of Mexico right now. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure will continue to keep generally clear
skies and light winds over the aviation area for the next
24 hours. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        68  99  68  95  67  95 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  62  97  64  92  62  93 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Pullman        58  97  60  93  61  92 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Lewiston       71 103  72  99  68  99 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Colville       59 100  60  98  59  97 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      55  94  57  92  57  92 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Kellogg        62  93  62  89  60  90 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Moses Lake     65 104  67 101  67  99 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Wenatchee      72 102  71 100  70 100 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           67 102  66 101  66 100 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Washington Palouse.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 290453
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
953 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.Tonight...Quiet and mild weather expected tonight due to strong
upper level ridge persisting over the region. Skies will
generally be clear as weak upper level disturbance currently over
extreme southeast Washington shifts into western Montana. Light
winds will prevail while relative humidity recoveries will be
quite poor over the mid-slopes and ridges. fx

Tuesday and Wednesday: The ridge will be in full control over the
Inland Northwest midweek, with continued hot temperatures
expected. Tuesday looks to be the hottest day of the week, as 850
mb temperatures are around 27 degrees Celsius. Little in the way
of cloud cover will get in the way, and not much breeze will be
present to make it feel a little "cooler." Expect whatever high
temperatures you experience to day (Monday) to go up another
couple of degrees, but then fall a few degrees for Wednesday
afternoon. This is in response to an increase in cloud cover as
monsoonal moisture overspreads eastern portions of the region.
Temperatures will likely begin the day on Wednesday on the warm
side, as mid-level cloud cover increases beginning Tuesday night
(and continues into Wednesday). A weak disturbance embedded in
the weak flow aloft may be enough to trigger some afternoon
showers and thunderstorms. Any precipitation would be more likely
over far eastern Washington into the Idaho Panhandle. This is not
a strong disturbance so widespread precipitation is not expected.
However, with the presence of thunderstorms, some new fire starts
are possible. But with increased moisture, hopefully any
thunderstorm would stay on the wet side. ty

Wednesday evening through Monday...Longwave ridge with axis
placement to the east over Central Montana remains in place due to
longwave trof/low remaining in place offshore and in the vicinity
of the Gulf of Alaska and a similar stagnant trof remaining over
northeast North America which essentially keeps the ridge from
moving anywhere. This persistent pattern allows for a persistent
hot forecast for temperatures and the potential for shortwave
disturbances of varying intensity to run up under or along the
west side of the ridge axis in a trajectory from the south or
southwest and possibly kick off thunderstorms through the
interval. As it stands now there is run to run model consistency
in passing such disturbances through the area in the form of a
negatively tilted trof rotating around the periphery of the Gulf
of Alaska low on Friday, otherwise there have been spottier
depictions in the models of smaller disturbances with limited
moisture/energy/lift coming up from the south. With this in mind
the pops and sky cover ramp up highest Friday and continue on into
through the remainder of the forecast with the idea the longwave
ridge axis should be further east once the Friday negatively
tilted trof passages which allows for a slightly better storm
track for disturbances to move up from the South/Southwest.
One thing very interesting to note is discussion about the 12Z
ECMWF bringing a closed wet circulation up from the south for the
weekend. If one rocks a 12Z ECMWF 500mb height, vorticity, and
QPF loop back and forth it does seem to look like this feature is
built upon bits of old remant moisture and energy ejected out of
tropical storm Hernan which is out if the East Pacific off the
coast of Mexico right now. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure will continue to keep generally clear
skies and light winds over the aviation area for the next
24 hours. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        68  99  68  95  67  95 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  62  97  64  92  62  93 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Pullman        58  97  60  93  61  92 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Lewiston       71 103  72  99  68  99 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Colville       59 100  60  98  59  97 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      55  94  57  92  57  92 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Kellogg        62  93  62  89  60  90 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Moses Lake     65 104  67 101  67  99 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Wenatchee      72 102  71 100  70 100 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           67 102  66 101  66 100 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Washington Palouse.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 290453
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
953 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.Tonight...Quiet and mild weather expected tonight due to strong
upper level ridge persisting over the region. Skies will
generally be clear as weak upper level disturbance currently over
extreme southeast Washington shifts into western Montana. Light
winds will prevail while relative humidity recoveries will be
quite poor over the mid-slopes and ridges. fx

Tuesday and Wednesday: The ridge will be in full control over the
Inland Northwest midweek, with continued hot temperatures
expected. Tuesday looks to be the hottest day of the week, as 850
mb temperatures are around 27 degrees Celsius. Little in the way
of cloud cover will get in the way, and not much breeze will be
present to make it feel a little "cooler." Expect whatever high
temperatures you experience to day (Monday) to go up another
couple of degrees, but then fall a few degrees for Wednesday
afternoon. This is in response to an increase in cloud cover as
monsoonal moisture overspreads eastern portions of the region.
Temperatures will likely begin the day on Wednesday on the warm
side, as mid-level cloud cover increases beginning Tuesday night
(and continues into Wednesday). A weak disturbance embedded in
the weak flow aloft may be enough to trigger some afternoon
showers and thunderstorms. Any precipitation would be more likely
over far eastern Washington into the Idaho Panhandle. This is not
a strong disturbance so widespread precipitation is not expected.
However, with the presence of thunderstorms, some new fire starts
are possible. But with increased moisture, hopefully any
thunderstorm would stay on the wet side. ty

Wednesday evening through Monday...Longwave ridge with axis
placement to the east over Central Montana remains in place due to
longwave trof/low remaining in place offshore and in the vicinity
of the Gulf of Alaska and a similar stagnant trof remaining over
northeast North America which essentially keeps the ridge from
moving anywhere. This persistent pattern allows for a persistent
hot forecast for temperatures and the potential for shortwave
disturbances of varying intensity to run up under or along the
west side of the ridge axis in a trajectory from the south or
southwest and possibly kick off thunderstorms through the
interval. As it stands now there is run to run model consistency
in passing such disturbances through the area in the form of a
negatively tilted trof rotating around the periphery of the Gulf
of Alaska low on Friday, otherwise there have been spottier
depictions in the models of smaller disturbances with limited
moisture/energy/lift coming up from the south. With this in mind
the pops and sky cover ramp up highest Friday and continue on into
through the remainder of the forecast with the idea the longwave
ridge axis should be further east once the Friday negatively
tilted trof passages which allows for a slightly better storm
track for disturbances to move up from the South/Southwest.
One thing very interesting to note is discussion about the 12Z
ECMWF bringing a closed wet circulation up from the south for the
weekend. If one rocks a 12Z ECMWF 500mb height, vorticity, and
QPF loop back and forth it does seem to look like this feature is
built upon bits of old remant moisture and energy ejected out of
tropical storm Hernan which is out if the East Pacific off the
coast of Mexico right now. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure will continue to keep generally clear
skies and light winds over the aviation area for the next
24 hours. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        68  99  68  95  67  95 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  62  97  64  92  62  93 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Pullman        58  97  60  93  61  92 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Lewiston       71 103  72  99  68  99 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Colville       59 100  60  98  59  97 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      55  94  57  92  57  92 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Kellogg        62  93  62  89  60  90 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Moses Lake     65 104  67 101  67  99 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Wenatchee      72 102  71 100  70 100 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           67 102  66 101  66 100 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Washington Palouse.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 290453
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
953 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.Tonight...Quiet and mild weather expected tonight due to strong
upper level ridge persisting over the region. Skies will
generally be clear as weak upper level disturbance currently over
extreme southeast Washington shifts into western Montana. Light
winds will prevail while relative humidity recoveries will be
quite poor over the mid-slopes and ridges. fx

Tuesday and Wednesday: The ridge will be in full control over the
Inland Northwest midweek, with continued hot temperatures
expected. Tuesday looks to be the hottest day of the week, as 850
mb temperatures are around 27 degrees Celsius. Little in the way
of cloud cover will get in the way, and not much breeze will be
present to make it feel a little "cooler." Expect whatever high
temperatures you experience to day (Monday) to go up another
couple of degrees, but then fall a few degrees for Wednesday
afternoon. This is in response to an increase in cloud cover as
monsoonal moisture overspreads eastern portions of the region.
Temperatures will likely begin the day on Wednesday on the warm
side, as mid-level cloud cover increases beginning Tuesday night
(and continues into Wednesday). A weak disturbance embedded in
the weak flow aloft may be enough to trigger some afternoon
showers and thunderstorms. Any precipitation would be more likely
over far eastern Washington into the Idaho Panhandle. This is not
a strong disturbance so widespread precipitation is not expected.
However, with the presence of thunderstorms, some new fire starts
are possible. But with increased moisture, hopefully any
thunderstorm would stay on the wet side. ty

Wednesday evening through Monday...Longwave ridge with axis
placement to the east over Central Montana remains in place due to
longwave trof/low remaining in place offshore and in the vicinity
of the Gulf of Alaska and a similar stagnant trof remaining over
northeast North America which essentially keeps the ridge from
moving anywhere. This persistent pattern allows for a persistent
hot forecast for temperatures and the potential for shortwave
disturbances of varying intensity to run up under or along the
west side of the ridge axis in a trajectory from the south or
southwest and possibly kick off thunderstorms through the
interval. As it stands now there is run to run model consistency
in passing such disturbances through the area in the form of a
negatively tilted trof rotating around the periphery of the Gulf
of Alaska low on Friday, otherwise there have been spottier
depictions in the models of smaller disturbances with limited
moisture/energy/lift coming up from the south. With this in mind
the pops and sky cover ramp up highest Friday and continue on into
through the remainder of the forecast with the idea the longwave
ridge axis should be further east once the Friday negatively
tilted trof passages which allows for a slightly better storm
track for disturbances to move up from the South/Southwest.
One thing very interesting to note is discussion about the 12Z
ECMWF bringing a closed wet circulation up from the south for the
weekend. If one rocks a 12Z ECMWF 500mb height, vorticity, and
QPF loop back and forth it does seem to look like this feature is
built upon bits of old remant moisture and energy ejected out of
tropical storm Hernan which is out if the East Pacific off the
coast of Mexico right now. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure will continue to keep generally clear
skies and light winds over the aviation area for the next
24 hours. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        68  99  68  95  67  95 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  62  97  64  92  62  93 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Pullman        58  97  60  93  61  92 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Lewiston       71 103  72  99  68  99 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Colville       59 100  60  98  59  97 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      55  94  57  92  57  92 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Kellogg        62  93  62  89  60  90 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Moses Lake     65 104  67 101  67  99 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Wenatchee      72 102  71 100  70 100 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           67 102  66 101  66 100 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Washington Palouse.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 290425
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
925 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF
THE B.C. COAST. THE RESULTING LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
CASCADES AND ESPECIALLY IN OREGON IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW BUT IS MORE SOLID...WITH A LITTLE
SEEPAGE THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS EXPECTED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
&&

.UPDATE...HAD ONE GOOD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN
LANE COUNTY AND LASTED FOR THE BETTER PART OF A COUPLE HOURS. PRECIP
ESTIMATES FROM THE MEDFORD RADAR PUT UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ON
THE TUMBLEBUG COMPLEX BURN SCAR FROM 2009. GROUND TRUTH OF 0.54
INCHES AT A NEARBY RAWS AT LEAST GIVES CREDENCE TO THOSE ESTIMATES.
ISSUED A COUPLE NOWCASTS AND HIGHLIGHTED CONCERN FOR SOME LOCALIZED
DEBRIS FLOW COMING OUT OF TUMBLEBUG CREEK AND ECHO CREEK. IF ANY
FLOWS DID OCCUR...THEY ULTIMATELY COULD DRAIN INTO THE UPPER REACHES
OF THE WILLAMETTE MIDDLE FORK. IN OTHER AREAS...THE COASTAL STRATUS
HAS PUSHED A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND BRINGING VERY PATCHY FOG WITH
NEWPORT AIRPORT MAINLY REPORTING IN THE 1/2 MILE TO 1 MILE RANGE,
BUT BRIEFLY FALLING BELOW 1/4 MILE A COUPLE HOURS AGO. AS THE SEAS
BREEZE EASES UP THIS EVENING...EXPECT THERE TO BE ADDITIONAL PATCHY
FOG WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HAVE DOUBTS
THE STRATUS WILL PUSH VERY FAR INLAND PER SHORT TERM MODEL DATA BUT
WILL GIVE THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THE BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT IN BRINGING
THE CLOUDS IN TO AROUND KELSO. /JBONK

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 204 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE B.C. COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE FEATURES
THAT PRODUCE THE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WILL AFFECT THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH THIS
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE LIGHT MOSTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH
500 MB HEIGHTS. A MARINE LAYER HAS FORMED ALONG THE COAST...BUT THE
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER RATHER SHALLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK. WE WILL SEE SOME SEEPAGE INLAND THROUGH COASTAL
GAPS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

SKIES HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED ALONG THE COAST BUT THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ARE STILL FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...AND MAY NOT CLEAR BACK OFFSHORE
TOO MUCH MORE. THERE ARE SOME CUMULUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN SOUTH
CENTRAL OREGON IN KLAMATH AND SOUTHERN DESCHUTES COUNTY...INCLUDING
JUST EAST OF WILLAMETTE PASS. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN FAR EASTERN LANE COUNTY BUT NOT SURE WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE ANY
LIGHTNING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CASCADE CREST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE CONTROLLING WEATHER PATTERN IS THE SAME ON TUESDAY...THOUGH THERE
ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES. IT WILL STILL BE WARM INLAND WITH TEMPS
CLOSE TO 90. EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST WITH
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BACK ONTO THE COAST FAIRLY EARLY THIS EVENING BUT
REMAINING QUITE LOW AND SHALLOW...WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS LOCALLY
INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO KELSO EARLY
TUESDAY. ALSO...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE MOISTURE SPREADING
UP FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO
NEAR 1 INCH. THUS EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE OREGON CASCADES...PROBABLY STAYING
SOUTH OF MOUNT JEFFERSON. WHILE THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL TEND
TO BE A BIT DRY...A FEW MAY EVENTUALLY PRODUCE SOME RAINFALL...AND
THE GFS MODEL EVEN DEVELOPS A QPF BULLSEYE...POSSIBLY DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.

THE PATTERN WEDNESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PWS REMAIN AROUND 1 INCH. THE LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PROBABLY KEEP THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AGAIN.
THE MODELS IMPLY THE MARINE LAYER MAY BECOME MORE SOLID ALONG THE
COAST WEDNESDAY...AND MAY TRY TO EXTEND INLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND BUT
ANYTHING WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT. TEMPS INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90. NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY AND THE
FORECAST GRIDS ARE NOT MUCH DIFFERENT. TOLLESON

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO TRAVEL UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING OUR AREA. THESE IMPULSES BRING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE CASCADES...THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
SHORTWAVES AS MODEL RESOLUTION ACCURACY DECLINES RAPIDLY FURTHER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THESE SMALLER FEATURES. HAVE
DECREASED POPS FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED
ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR STORM CHANCES...AND DECREASED
CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO GREAT MODEL
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND LOCATION. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR/VLIFR STRATUS AND FOG PUSHED ONTO THE CENTRAL OR
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. IFR/LIFR STRATUS SHOULD ALSO PUSH INTO
THE N OR AND S WA COAST...INCLUDING KAST...BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z.
COASTAL STRATUS SHOULD BURN BACK OFFSHORE BY EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. INLAND SITES TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS AS
HIGH PRES RESIDES OVER THE REGION...WITH DRY SWLY FLOW ALOFT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...N/NW FLOW REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRES OVER
THE NE PAC AND A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROF OVER NW CALIF AND
FAR SW OREGON. PRES GRADIENTS WILL FLEX FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT
TIGHTEST GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. DECIDED TO
END THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT HAS
BEGUN TO WEAKEN...BUT ISSUED ANOTHER FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE INNER WATERS.

SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 4 TO 6 FT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A BIT CHOPPY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER WINDS. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD
     OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 290425
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
925 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF
THE B.C. COAST. THE RESULTING LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
CASCADES AND ESPECIALLY IN OREGON IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW BUT IS MORE SOLID...WITH A LITTLE
SEEPAGE THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS EXPECTED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
&&

.UPDATE...HAD ONE GOOD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN
LANE COUNTY AND LASTED FOR THE BETTER PART OF A COUPLE HOURS. PRECIP
ESTIMATES FROM THE MEDFORD RADAR PUT UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ON
THE TUMBLEBUG COMPLEX BURN SCAR FROM 2009. GROUND TRUTH OF 0.54
INCHES AT A NEARBY RAWS AT LEAST GIVES CREDENCE TO THOSE ESTIMATES.
ISSUED A COUPLE NOWCASTS AND HIGHLIGHTED CONCERN FOR SOME LOCALIZED
DEBRIS FLOW COMING OUT OF TUMBLEBUG CREEK AND ECHO CREEK. IF ANY
FLOWS DID OCCUR...THEY ULTIMATELY COULD DRAIN INTO THE UPPER REACHES
OF THE WILLAMETTE MIDDLE FORK. IN OTHER AREAS...THE COASTAL STRATUS
HAS PUSHED A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND BRINGING VERY PATCHY FOG WITH
NEWPORT AIRPORT MAINLY REPORTING IN THE 1/2 MILE TO 1 MILE RANGE,
BUT BRIEFLY FALLING BELOW 1/4 MILE A COUPLE HOURS AGO. AS THE SEAS
BREEZE EASES UP THIS EVENING...EXPECT THERE TO BE ADDITIONAL PATCHY
FOG WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HAVE DOUBTS
THE STRATUS WILL PUSH VERY FAR INLAND PER SHORT TERM MODEL DATA BUT
WILL GIVE THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THE BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT IN BRINGING
THE CLOUDS IN TO AROUND KELSO. /JBONK

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 204 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE B.C. COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE FEATURES
THAT PRODUCE THE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WILL AFFECT THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH THIS
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE LIGHT MOSTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH
500 MB HEIGHTS. A MARINE LAYER HAS FORMED ALONG THE COAST...BUT THE
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER RATHER SHALLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK. WE WILL SEE SOME SEEPAGE INLAND THROUGH COASTAL
GAPS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

SKIES HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED ALONG THE COAST BUT THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ARE STILL FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...AND MAY NOT CLEAR BACK OFFSHORE
TOO MUCH MORE. THERE ARE SOME CUMULUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN SOUTH
CENTRAL OREGON IN KLAMATH AND SOUTHERN DESCHUTES COUNTY...INCLUDING
JUST EAST OF WILLAMETTE PASS. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN FAR EASTERN LANE COUNTY BUT NOT SURE WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE ANY
LIGHTNING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CASCADE CREST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE CONTROLLING WEATHER PATTERN IS THE SAME ON TUESDAY...THOUGH THERE
ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES. IT WILL STILL BE WARM INLAND WITH TEMPS
CLOSE TO 90. EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST WITH
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BACK ONTO THE COAST FAIRLY EARLY THIS EVENING BUT
REMAINING QUITE LOW AND SHALLOW...WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS LOCALLY
INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO KELSO EARLY
TUESDAY. ALSO...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE MOISTURE SPREADING
UP FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO
NEAR 1 INCH. THUS EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE OREGON CASCADES...PROBABLY STAYING
SOUTH OF MOUNT JEFFERSON. WHILE THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL TEND
TO BE A BIT DRY...A FEW MAY EVENTUALLY PRODUCE SOME RAINFALL...AND
THE GFS MODEL EVEN DEVELOPS A QPF BULLSEYE...POSSIBLY DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.

THE PATTERN WEDNESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PWS REMAIN AROUND 1 INCH. THE LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PROBABLY KEEP THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AGAIN.
THE MODELS IMPLY THE MARINE LAYER MAY BECOME MORE SOLID ALONG THE
COAST WEDNESDAY...AND MAY TRY TO EXTEND INLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND BUT
ANYTHING WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT. TEMPS INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90. NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY AND THE
FORECAST GRIDS ARE NOT MUCH DIFFERENT. TOLLESON

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO TRAVEL UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING OUR AREA. THESE IMPULSES BRING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE CASCADES...THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
SHORTWAVES AS MODEL RESOLUTION ACCURACY DECLINES RAPIDLY FURTHER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THESE SMALLER FEATURES. HAVE
DECREASED POPS FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED
ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR STORM CHANCES...AND DECREASED
CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO GREAT MODEL
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND LOCATION. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR/VLIFR STRATUS AND FOG PUSHED ONTO THE CENTRAL OR
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. IFR/LIFR STRATUS SHOULD ALSO PUSH INTO
THE N OR AND S WA COAST...INCLUDING KAST...BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z.
COASTAL STRATUS SHOULD BURN BACK OFFSHORE BY EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. INLAND SITES TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS AS
HIGH PRES RESIDES OVER THE REGION...WITH DRY SWLY FLOW ALOFT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...N/NW FLOW REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRES OVER
THE NE PAC AND A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROF OVER NW CALIF AND
FAR SW OREGON. PRES GRADIENTS WILL FLEX FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT
TIGHTEST GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. DECIDED TO
END THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT HAS
BEGUN TO WEAKEN...BUT ISSUED ANOTHER FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE INNER WATERS.

SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 4 TO 6 FT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A BIT CHOPPY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER WINDS. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD
     OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 290349
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AT LEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON...AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE WESTERN PART OF
THE UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CASCADES IS MAINTAINING WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. SKIES
REMAINED GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING...
WITH MARINE STRATUS HUGGING THE COAST.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONG WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. MARINE
STRATUS WILL PUSH WEAKLY INLAND FROM THE COAST EACH NIGHT --
PROBABLY JUST REACHING WHIDBEY ISLAND AND THE SAN JUANS THROUGH THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND JUST TO THE SOUTH END OF PUGET SOUND
AND HOOD CANAL THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP. THE STRATUS WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY EACH MORNING...FOR SUNNY DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AT THE
COAST AND MAINLY IN THE 80S INLAND.

MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH IS PRODUCING SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OREGON CASCADES THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS
WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS WELL...PEAKING EACH DAY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEY COULD REACH THE BORDER
OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON SOME DAYS...BUT WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO
REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.   MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...HERE IS THE LONG TERM SECTION FROM THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST DISCUSSION -- AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN USA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PRIMARY
DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS WERE IN THE DETAILS. AS
STATED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION...WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE WRN U.S. AND IT WILL PERSIST.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES. SOME AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ALONG THE COAST WILL PUSH INTO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...OTHERWISE THE AIR IS DRY AND STABLE.

KSEA...CLEAR WITH A NLY BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE INLAND
WILL RESULT IN VARYING DEGREES OF ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONGEST WIND WILL OCCUR IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
     CENTRAL/EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 290349
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AT LEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON...AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE WESTERN PART OF
THE UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CASCADES IS MAINTAINING WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. SKIES
REMAINED GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING...
WITH MARINE STRATUS HUGGING THE COAST.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONG WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. MARINE
STRATUS WILL PUSH WEAKLY INLAND FROM THE COAST EACH NIGHT --
PROBABLY JUST REACHING WHIDBEY ISLAND AND THE SAN JUANS THROUGH THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND JUST TO THE SOUTH END OF PUGET SOUND
AND HOOD CANAL THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP. THE STRATUS WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY EACH MORNING...FOR SUNNY DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AT THE
COAST AND MAINLY IN THE 80S INLAND.

MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH IS PRODUCING SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OREGON CASCADES THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS
WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS WELL...PEAKING EACH DAY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEY COULD REACH THE BORDER
OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON SOME DAYS...BUT WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO
REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.   MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...HERE IS THE LONG TERM SECTION FROM THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST DISCUSSION -- AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN USA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PRIMARY
DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS WERE IN THE DETAILS. AS
STATED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION...WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE WRN U.S. AND IT WILL PERSIST.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES. SOME AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ALONG THE COAST WILL PUSH INTO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...OTHERWISE THE AIR IS DRY AND STABLE.

KSEA...CLEAR WITH A NLY BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE INLAND
WILL RESULT IN VARYING DEGREES OF ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONGEST WIND WILL OCCUR IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
     CENTRAL/EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 290349
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AT LEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON...AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE WESTERN PART OF
THE UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CASCADES IS MAINTAINING WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. SKIES
REMAINED GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING...
WITH MARINE STRATUS HUGGING THE COAST.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONG WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. MARINE
STRATUS WILL PUSH WEAKLY INLAND FROM THE COAST EACH NIGHT --
PROBABLY JUST REACHING WHIDBEY ISLAND AND THE SAN JUANS THROUGH THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND JUST TO THE SOUTH END OF PUGET SOUND
AND HOOD CANAL THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP. THE STRATUS WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY EACH MORNING...FOR SUNNY DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AT THE
COAST AND MAINLY IN THE 80S INLAND.

MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH IS PRODUCING SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OREGON CASCADES THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS
WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS WELL...PEAKING EACH DAY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEY COULD REACH THE BORDER
OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON SOME DAYS...BUT WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO
REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.   MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...HERE IS THE LONG TERM SECTION FROM THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST DISCUSSION -- AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN USA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PRIMARY
DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS WERE IN THE DETAILS. AS
STATED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION...WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE WRN U.S. AND IT WILL PERSIST.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES. SOME AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ALONG THE COAST WILL PUSH INTO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...OTHERWISE THE AIR IS DRY AND STABLE.

KSEA...CLEAR WITH A NLY BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE INLAND
WILL RESULT IN VARYING DEGREES OF ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONGEST WIND WILL OCCUR IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
     CENTRAL/EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 290349
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AT LEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON...AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE WESTERN PART OF
THE UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CASCADES IS MAINTAINING WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. SKIES
REMAINED GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING...
WITH MARINE STRATUS HUGGING THE COAST.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONG WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. MARINE
STRATUS WILL PUSH WEAKLY INLAND FROM THE COAST EACH NIGHT --
PROBABLY JUST REACHING WHIDBEY ISLAND AND THE SAN JUANS THROUGH THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND JUST TO THE SOUTH END OF PUGET SOUND
AND HOOD CANAL THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP. THE STRATUS WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY EACH MORNING...FOR SUNNY DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AT THE
COAST AND MAINLY IN THE 80S INLAND.

MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH IS PRODUCING SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OREGON CASCADES THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS
WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS WELL...PEAKING EACH DAY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEY COULD REACH THE BORDER
OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON SOME DAYS...BUT WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO
REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.   MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...HERE IS THE LONG TERM SECTION FROM THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST DISCUSSION -- AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN USA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PRIMARY
DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS WERE IN THE DETAILS. AS
STATED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION...WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE WRN U.S. AND IT WILL PERSIST.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES. SOME AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ALONG THE COAST WILL PUSH INTO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...OTHERWISE THE AIR IS DRY AND STABLE.

KSEA...CLEAR WITH A NLY BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE INLAND
WILL RESULT IN VARYING DEGREES OF ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONGEST WIND WILL OCCUR IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
     CENTRAL/EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KOTX 290020
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
519 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.Tonight...Quiet and mild weather expected tonight due to strong
upper level ridge persisting over the region. Skies will
generally be clear as weak upper level disturbance currently over
extreme southeast Washington shifts into western Montana. Light
winds will prevail while relative humidity recoveries will be
quite poor over the mid-slopes and ridges. fx

Tuesday and Wednesday: The ridge will be in full control over the
Inland Northwest midweek, with continued hot temperatures
expected. Tuesday looks to be the hottest day of the week, as 850
mb temperatures are around 27 degrees Celsius. Little in the way
of cloud cover will get in the way, and not much breeze will be
present to make it feel a little "cooler." Expect whatever high
temperatures you experience to day (Monday) to go up another
couple of degrees, but then fall a few degrees for Wednesday
afternoon. This is in response to an increase in cloud cover as
monsoonal moisture overspreads eastern portions of the region.
Temperatures will likely begin the day on Wednesday on the warm
side, as mid-level cloud cover increases beginning Tuesday night
(and continues into Wednesday). A weak disturbance embedded in
the weak flow aloft may be enough to trigger some afternoon
showers and thunderstorms. Any precipitation would be more likely
over far eastern Washington into the Idaho Panhandle. This is not
a strong disturbance so widespread precipitation is not expected.
However, with the presence of thunderstorms, some new fire starts
are possible. But with increased moisture, hopefully any
thunderstorm would stay on the wet side. ty

Wednesday evening through Monday...Longwave ridge with axis
placement to the east over Central Montana remains in place due to
longwave trof/low remaining in place offshore and in the vicinity
of the Gulf of Alaska and a similar stagnant trof remaining over
northeast North America which essentially keeps the ridge from
moving anywhere. This persistent pattern allows for a persistent
hot forecast for temperatures and the potential for shortwave
disturbances of varying intensity to run up under or along the
west side of the ridge axis in a trajectory from the south or
southwest and possibly kick off thunderstorms through the
interval. As it stands now there is run to run model consistency
in passing such disturbances through the area in the form of a
negatively tilted trof rotating around the periphery of the Gulf
of Alaska low on Friday, otherwise there have been spottier
depictions in the models of smaller disturbances with limited
moisture/energy/lift coming up from the south. With this in mind
the pops and sky cover ramp up highest Friday and continue on into
through the remainder of the forecast with the idea the longwave
ridge axis should be further east once the Friday negatively
tilted trof passages which allows for a slightly better storm
track for disturbances to move up from the South/Southwest.
One thing very interesting to note is discussion about the 12Z
ECMWF bringing a closed wet circulation up from the south for the
weekend. If one rocks a 12Z ECMWF 500mb height, vorticity, and
QPF loop back and forth it does seem to look like this feature is
built upon bits of old remant moisture and energy ejected out of
tropical storm Hernan which is out if the East Pacific off the
coast of Mexico right now. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Clear skies and light winds will prevail for the next 24
hours under high pressure. RJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        68  99  68  95  67  95 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  62  97  64  92  62  93 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Pullman        58  97  60  93  61  92 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Lewiston       71 103  72  99  68  99 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Colville       59 100  60  98  59  97 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      55  94  57  92  57  92 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Kellogg        62  93  62  89  60  90 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Moses Lake     65 104  67 101  67  99 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Wenatchee      72 102  71 100  70 100 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           67 102  66 101  66 100 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 290020
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
519 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.Tonight...Quiet and mild weather expected tonight due to strong
upper level ridge persisting over the region. Skies will
generally be clear as weak upper level disturbance currently over
extreme southeast Washington shifts into western Montana. Light
winds will prevail while relative humidity recoveries will be
quite poor over the mid-slopes and ridges. fx

Tuesday and Wednesday: The ridge will be in full control over the
Inland Northwest midweek, with continued hot temperatures
expected. Tuesday looks to be the hottest day of the week, as 850
mb temperatures are around 27 degrees Celsius. Little in the way
of cloud cover will get in the way, and not much breeze will be
present to make it feel a little "cooler." Expect whatever high
temperatures you experience to day (Monday) to go up another
couple of degrees, but then fall a few degrees for Wednesday
afternoon. This is in response to an increase in cloud cover as
monsoonal moisture overspreads eastern portions of the region.
Temperatures will likely begin the day on Wednesday on the warm
side, as mid-level cloud cover increases beginning Tuesday night
(and continues into Wednesday). A weak disturbance embedded in
the weak flow aloft may be enough to trigger some afternoon
showers and thunderstorms. Any precipitation would be more likely
over far eastern Washington into the Idaho Panhandle. This is not
a strong disturbance so widespread precipitation is not expected.
However, with the presence of thunderstorms, some new fire starts
are possible. But with increased moisture, hopefully any
thunderstorm would stay on the wet side. ty

Wednesday evening through Monday...Longwave ridge with axis
placement to the east over Central Montana remains in place due to
longwave trof/low remaining in place offshore and in the vicinity
of the Gulf of Alaska and a similar stagnant trof remaining over
northeast North America which essentially keeps the ridge from
moving anywhere. This persistent pattern allows for a persistent
hot forecast for temperatures and the potential for shortwave
disturbances of varying intensity to run up under or along the
west side of the ridge axis in a trajectory from the south or
southwest and possibly kick off thunderstorms through the
interval. As it stands now there is run to run model consistency
in passing such disturbances through the area in the form of a
negatively tilted trof rotating around the periphery of the Gulf
of Alaska low on Friday, otherwise there have been spottier
depictions in the models of smaller disturbances with limited
moisture/energy/lift coming up from the south. With this in mind
the pops and sky cover ramp up highest Friday and continue on into
through the remainder of the forecast with the idea the longwave
ridge axis should be further east once the Friday negatively
tilted trof passages which allows for a slightly better storm
track for disturbances to move up from the South/Southwest.
One thing very interesting to note is discussion about the 12Z
ECMWF bringing a closed wet circulation up from the south for the
weekend. If one rocks a 12Z ECMWF 500mb height, vorticity, and
QPF loop back and forth it does seem to look like this feature is
built upon bits of old remant moisture and energy ejected out of
tropical storm Hernan which is out if the East Pacific off the
coast of Mexico right now. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Clear skies and light winds will prevail for the next 24
hours under high pressure. RJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        68  99  68  95  67  95 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  62  97  64  92  62  93 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Pullman        58  97  60  93  61  92 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Lewiston       71 103  72  99  68  99 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Colville       59 100  60  98  59  97 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      55  94  57  92  57  92 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Kellogg        62  93  62  89  60  90 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Moses Lake     65 104  67 101  67  99 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Wenatchee      72 102  71 100  70 100 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           67 102  66 101  66 100 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Washington Palouse.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 282139
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
239 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES OVER THE CWA.

THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON WAS TIGHTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY AND WILL TIGHTEN MORE ON TUE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
STRATUS SPREADING FARTHER INLAND THAN THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
WED MORNING. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY ON WED...RESULTING IN LESS LOW CLOUDS OVER THE INTERIOR
THU MORNING.

WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES. STILL THINK THAT ANY TSTMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CWA BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
DISTURBANCE /ROTATING NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST UPPER HIGH/ CLIPPING THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
CWA.

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN
USA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS WERE IN THE DETAILS. AS STATED IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION...WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US
WILL PERSIST BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT GIVING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE
AREA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW TO THE AREA. WHILE SOME FOG AND STRATUS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL WORK IN THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND
ONTO THE COASTAL ZONES DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...THE
AIR MASS OVER THE INLAND AREAS WILL BE DRY AND STABLE RESULTING IN
GOOD VFR CONDITIONS. STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE COASTAL AREAS WILL
PULL BACK INTO THE WATERS OF THE PACIFIC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALBRECHT

KSEA...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS 8-11 KNOTS TO TURN NORTHEASTERLY 4-7 KNOTS
AFTER 05Z THIS EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND LOWER PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENT
FORECAST MODELS SHOW ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS A BIT HIGHER TUESDAY
EVENING THAN THIS EVENING OR WEDNESDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN
SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN VARYING DEGREES OF
ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...LIKELY RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
THERE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL BRIEFLY REACH GALE
FORCE IN THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TUESDAY EVENING.

AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA EACH DAY. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
     CENTRAL/EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 282139
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
239 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES OVER THE CWA.

THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON WAS TIGHTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY AND WILL TIGHTEN MORE ON TUE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
STRATUS SPREADING FARTHER INLAND THAN THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
WED MORNING. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY ON WED...RESULTING IN LESS LOW CLOUDS OVER THE INTERIOR
THU MORNING.

WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES. STILL THINK THAT ANY TSTMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CWA BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
DISTURBANCE /ROTATING NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST UPPER HIGH/ CLIPPING THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
CWA.

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN
USA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS WERE IN THE DETAILS. AS STATED IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION...WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US
WILL PERSIST BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT GIVING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE
AREA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW TO THE AREA. WHILE SOME FOG AND STRATUS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL WORK IN THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND
ONTO THE COASTAL ZONES DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...THE
AIR MASS OVER THE INLAND AREAS WILL BE DRY AND STABLE RESULTING IN
GOOD VFR CONDITIONS. STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE COASTAL AREAS WILL
PULL BACK INTO THE WATERS OF THE PACIFIC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALBRECHT

KSEA...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS 8-11 KNOTS TO TURN NORTHEASTERLY 4-7 KNOTS
AFTER 05Z THIS EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND LOWER PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENT
FORECAST MODELS SHOW ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS A BIT HIGHER TUESDAY
EVENING THAN THIS EVENING OR WEDNESDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN
SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN VARYING DEGREES OF
ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...LIKELY RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
THERE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL BRIEFLY REACH GALE
FORCE IN THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TUESDAY EVENING.

AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA EACH DAY. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
     CENTRAL/EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KOTX 282124
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
224 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.Tonight...Quiet and mild weather expected tonight due to strong
upper level ridge persisting over the region. Skies will
generally be clear as weak upper level disturbance currently over
extreme southeast Washington shifts into western Montana. Light
winds will prevail while relative humidity recoveries will be
quite poor over the mid-slopes and ridges. fx

Tuesday and Wednesday: The ridge will be in full control over the
Inland Northwest midweek, with continued hot temperatures
expected. Tuesday looks to be the hottest day of the week, as 850
mb temperatures are around 27 degrees Celsius. Little in the way
of cloud cover will get in the way, and not much breeze will be
present to make it feel a little "cooler." Expect whatever high
temperatures you experience to day (Monday) to go up another
couple of degrees, but then fall a few degrees for Wednesday
afternoon. This is in response to an increase in cloud cover as
monsoonal moisture overspreads eastern portions of the region.
Temperatures will likely begin the day on Wednesday on the warm
side, as mid-level cloud cover increases beginning Tuesday night
(and continues into Wednesday). A weak disturbance embedded in
the weak flow aloft may be enough to trigger some afternoon
showers and thunderstorms. Any precipitation would be more likely
over far eastern Washington into the Idaho Panhandle. This is not
a strong disturbance so widespread precipitation is not expected.
However, with the presence of thunderstorms, some new fire starts
are possible. But with increased moisture, hopefully any
thunderstorm would stay on the wet side. ty

Wednesday evening through Monday...Longwave ridge with axis
placement to the east over Central Montana remains in place due to
longwave trof/low remaining in place offshore and in the vicinity
of the Gulf of Alaska and a similar stagnant trof remaining over
northeast North America which essentially keeps the ridge from
moving anywhere. This persistent pattern allows for a persistent
hot forecast for temperatures and the potential for shortwave
disturbances of varying intensity to run up under or along the
west side of the ridge axis in a trajectory from the south or
southwest and possibly kick off thunderstorms through the
interval. As it stands now there is run to run model consistency
in passing such disturbances through the area in the form of a
negatively tilted trof rotating around the periphery of the Gulf
of Alaska low on Friday, otherwise there have been spottier
depictions in the models of smaller disturbances with limited
moisture/energy/lift coming up from the south. With this in mind
the pops and sky cover ramp up highest Friday and continue on into
through the remainder of the forecast with the idea the longwave
ridge axis should be further east once the Friday negatively
tilted trof passages which allows for a slightly better storm
track for disturbances to move up from the South/Southwest.
One thing very interesting to note is discussion about the 12Z
ECMWF bringing a closed wet circulation up from the south for the
weekend. If one rocks a 12Z ECMWF 500mb height, vorticity, and
QPF loop back and forth it does seem to look like this feature is
built upon bits of old remant moisture and energy ejected out of
tropical storm Hernan which is out if the East Pacific off the
coast of Mexico right now. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High pressure ridge will deliver generally clear skies
and VFR conditions to all sites through 18z Tue. Main weather will
be associated with a weak disturbance tracking northeast through
SE Washington and the southern ID Panhandle. This could bring some
temporary mid level cigs to PUW and LWS and perhaps a sprinkle
through 21z...but most of that will occur east of these sites. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        68  99  68  95  67  95 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  62  97  64  92  62  93 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Pullman        58  97  60  93  61  92 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Lewiston       71 103  72  99  68  99 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Colville       59 100  60  98  59  97 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      55  94  57  92  57  92 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Kellogg        62  93  62  89  60  90 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Moses Lake     65 104  67 101  67  99 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Wenatchee      72 102  71 100  70 100 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           67 102  66 101  66 100 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Washington Palouse.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 282124
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
224 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.Tonight...Quiet and mild weather expected tonight due to strong
upper level ridge persisting over the region. Skies will
generally be clear as weak upper level disturbance currently over
extreme southeast Washington shifts into western Montana. Light
winds will prevail while relative humidity recoveries will be
quite poor over the mid-slopes and ridges. fx

Tuesday and Wednesday: The ridge will be in full control over the
Inland Northwest midweek, with continued hot temperatures
expected. Tuesday looks to be the hottest day of the week, as 850
mb temperatures are around 27 degrees Celsius. Little in the way
of cloud cover will get in the way, and not much breeze will be
present to make it feel a little "cooler." Expect whatever high
temperatures you experience to day (Monday) to go up another
couple of degrees, but then fall a few degrees for Wednesday
afternoon. This is in response to an increase in cloud cover as
monsoonal moisture overspreads eastern portions of the region.
Temperatures will likely begin the day on Wednesday on the warm
side, as mid-level cloud cover increases beginning Tuesday night
(and continues into Wednesday). A weak disturbance embedded in
the weak flow aloft may be enough to trigger some afternoon
showers and thunderstorms. Any precipitation would be more likely
over far eastern Washington into the Idaho Panhandle. This is not
a strong disturbance so widespread precipitation is not expected.
However, with the presence of thunderstorms, some new fire starts
are possible. But with increased moisture, hopefully any
thunderstorm would stay on the wet side. ty

Wednesday evening through Monday...Longwave ridge with axis
placement to the east over Central Montana remains in place due to
longwave trof/low remaining in place offshore and in the vicinity
of the Gulf of Alaska and a similar stagnant trof remaining over
northeast North America which essentially keeps the ridge from
moving anywhere. This persistent pattern allows for a persistent
hot forecast for temperatures and the potential for shortwave
disturbances of varying intensity to run up under or along the
west side of the ridge axis in a trajectory from the south or
southwest and possibly kick off thunderstorms through the
interval. As it stands now there is run to run model consistency
in passing such disturbances through the area in the form of a
negatively tilted trof rotating around the periphery of the Gulf
of Alaska low on Friday, otherwise there have been spottier
depictions in the models of smaller disturbances with limited
moisture/energy/lift coming up from the south. With this in mind
the pops and sky cover ramp up highest Friday and continue on into
through the remainder of the forecast with the idea the longwave
ridge axis should be further east once the Friday negatively
tilted trof passages which allows for a slightly better storm
track for disturbances to move up from the South/Southwest.
One thing very interesting to note is discussion about the 12Z
ECMWF bringing a closed wet circulation up from the south for the
weekend. If one rocks a 12Z ECMWF 500mb height, vorticity, and
QPF loop back and forth it does seem to look like this feature is
built upon bits of old remant moisture and energy ejected out of
tropical storm Hernan which is out if the East Pacific off the
coast of Mexico right now. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High pressure ridge will deliver generally clear skies
and VFR conditions to all sites through 18z Tue. Main weather will
be associated with a weak disturbance tracking northeast through
SE Washington and the southern ID Panhandle. This could bring some
temporary mid level cigs to PUW and LWS and perhaps a sprinkle
through 21z...but most of that will occur east of these sites. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        68  99  68  95  67  95 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  62  97  64  92  62  93 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Pullman        58  97  60  93  61  92 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Lewiston       71 103  72  99  68  99 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Colville       59 100  60  98  59  97 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      55  94  57  92  57  92 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Kellogg        62  93  62  89  60  90 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Moses Lake     65 104  67 101  67  99 /   0   0   0  10   0  10
Wenatchee      72 102  71 100  70 100 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           67 102  66 101  66 100 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 282104
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
204 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF
THE B.C. COAST. THE RESULTING LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
CASCADES AND ESPECIALLY IN OREGON IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW BUT IS MORE SOLID...WITH A LITTLE
SEEPAGE THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS EXPECTED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE B.C. COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE FEATURES THAT
PRODUCE THE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WILL AFFECT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH THIS WEEK. THIS
WILL PRODUCE LIGHT MOSTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH 500 MB
HEIGHTS. A MARINE LAYER HAS FORMED ALONG THE COAST...BUT THE
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER RATHER SHALLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK. WE WILL SEE SOME SEEPAGE INLAND THROUGH COASTAL
GAPS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

SKIES HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED ALONG THE COAST BUT THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ARE STILL FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...AND MAY NOT CLEAR BACK OFFSHORE
TOO MUCH MORE. THERE ARE SOME CUMULUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN SOUTH
CENTRAL OREGON IN KLAMATH AND SOUTHERN DESCHUTES COUNTY...INCLUDING
JUST EAST OF WILLAMETTE PASS. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN FAR EASTERN LANE COUNTY BUT NOT SURE WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE ANY
LIGHTNING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CASCADE CREST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE CONTROLLING WEATHER PATTERN IS THE SAME ON TUESDAY...THOUGH THERE
ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES. IT WILL STILL BE WARM INLAND WITH TEMPS
CLOSE TO 90. EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST WITH
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BACK ONTO THE COAST FAIRLY EARLY THIS EVENING BUT
REMAINING QUITE LOW AND SHALLOW...WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS LOCALLY
INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO KELSO EARLY
TUESDAY. ALSO...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE MOISTURE SPREADING
UP FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO
NEAR 1 INCH. THUS EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE OREGON CASCADES...PROBABLY STAYING
SOUTH OF MOUNT JEFFERSON. WHILE THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL TEND
TO BE A BIT DRY...A FEW MAY EVENTUALLY PRODUCE SOME RAINFALL...AND
THE GFS MODEL EVEN DEVELOPS A QPF BULLSEYE...POSSIBLY DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.

THE PATTERN WEDNESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PWS REMAIN AROUND 1 INCH. THE LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PROBABLY KEEP THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AGAIN.
THE MODELS IMPLY THE MARINE LAYER MAY BECOME MORE SOLID ALONG THE
COAST WEDNESDAY...AND MAY TRY TO EXTEND INLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND BUT
ANYTHING WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT. TEMPS INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90. NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY AND THE
FORECAST GRIDS ARE NOT MUCH DIFFERENT. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO TRAVEL UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING OUR AREA. THESE IMPULSES BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE CASCADES...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE SHORTWAVES AS
MODEL RESOLUTION ACCURACY DECLINES RAPIDLY FURTHER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THESE SMALLER FEATURES. HAVE DECREASED POPS
FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR STORM CHANCES...AND DECREASED CONFIDENCE OF
THUNDER CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO GREAT MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING AND LOCATION. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MARINE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE COAST THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR AND OCCASIONAL VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
AFTER 00Z TUE. HIGH PRES OVER REGION...WITH DRY SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CIRRUS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...NO ADVERSE WX IMPACTS...WITH VFR. /27
&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRES REMAINS OVER THE NE PAC...WITH THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW CALIF
AND FAR SW OREGON. PRES GRADIENTS WILL FLEX FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT
TIGHTEST GRADIENT REMAINS OVER S OREGON COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT WINDS EASE A TAD ON TUE AND WED.

SEAS RUNNING 4 TO 7 FT...WITH HIGHEST SEAS S OF TILLAMOOK WHERE
DURATION OF NW WINDS CONTINUE TO BUILD UP THE SEAS.   ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 282104
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
204 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF
THE B.C. COAST. THE RESULTING LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
CASCADES AND ESPECIALLY IN OREGON IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW BUT IS MORE SOLID...WITH A LITTLE
SEEPAGE THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS EXPECTED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE B.C. COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE FEATURES THAT
PRODUCE THE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WILL AFFECT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH THIS WEEK. THIS
WILL PRODUCE LIGHT MOSTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH 500 MB
HEIGHTS. A MARINE LAYER HAS FORMED ALONG THE COAST...BUT THE
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER RATHER SHALLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK. WE WILL SEE SOME SEEPAGE INLAND THROUGH COASTAL
GAPS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

SKIES HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED ALONG THE COAST BUT THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ARE STILL FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...AND MAY NOT CLEAR BACK OFFSHORE
TOO MUCH MORE. THERE ARE SOME CUMULUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN SOUTH
CENTRAL OREGON IN KLAMATH AND SOUTHERN DESCHUTES COUNTY...INCLUDING
JUST EAST OF WILLAMETTE PASS. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN FAR EASTERN LANE COUNTY BUT NOT SURE WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE ANY
LIGHTNING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CASCADE CREST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE CONTROLLING WEATHER PATTERN IS THE SAME ON TUESDAY...THOUGH THERE
ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES. IT WILL STILL BE WARM INLAND WITH TEMPS
CLOSE TO 90. EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST WITH
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BACK ONTO THE COAST FAIRLY EARLY THIS EVENING BUT
REMAINING QUITE LOW AND SHALLOW...WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS LOCALLY
INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO KELSO EARLY
TUESDAY. ALSO...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE MOISTURE SPREADING
UP FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO
NEAR 1 INCH. THUS EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE OREGON CASCADES...PROBABLY STAYING
SOUTH OF MOUNT JEFFERSON. WHILE THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL TEND
TO BE A BIT DRY...A FEW MAY EVENTUALLY PRODUCE SOME RAINFALL...AND
THE GFS MODEL EVEN DEVELOPS A QPF BULLSEYE...POSSIBLY DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.

THE PATTERN WEDNESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PWS REMAIN AROUND 1 INCH. THE LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PROBABLY KEEP THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AGAIN.
THE MODELS IMPLY THE MARINE LAYER MAY BECOME MORE SOLID ALONG THE
COAST WEDNESDAY...AND MAY TRY TO EXTEND INLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND BUT
ANYTHING WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT. TEMPS INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90. NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY AND THE
FORECAST GRIDS ARE NOT MUCH DIFFERENT. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO TRAVEL UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING OUR AREA. THESE IMPULSES BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE CASCADES...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE SHORTWAVES AS
MODEL RESOLUTION ACCURACY DECLINES RAPIDLY FURTHER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THESE SMALLER FEATURES. HAVE DECREASED POPS
FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR STORM CHANCES...AND DECREASED CONFIDENCE OF
THUNDER CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO GREAT MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING AND LOCATION. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MARINE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE COAST THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR AND OCCASIONAL VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
AFTER 00Z TUE. HIGH PRES OVER REGION...WITH DRY SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CIRRUS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...NO ADVERSE WX IMPACTS...WITH VFR. /27
&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRES REMAINS OVER THE NE PAC...WITH THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW CALIF
AND FAR SW OREGON. PRES GRADIENTS WILL FLEX FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT
TIGHTEST GRADIENT REMAINS OVER S OREGON COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT WINDS EASE A TAD ON TUE AND WED.

SEAS RUNNING 4 TO 7 FT...WITH HIGHEST SEAS S OF TILLAMOOK WHERE
DURATION OF NW WINDS CONTINUE TO BUILD UP THE SEAS.   ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 281833
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1133 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of Today...Strong ridge continues to build over the Inland
Northwest today. This will result in hot temperatures for all
locations with triple digit heat expected across portions of the
LC Valley...lower Columbia Basin...and Okanogan Valley. The
warmest temperatures will generally coincide with the heat
advisory which was issued earlier for the lower Columbia Basin and
LC Valley. The heat will also feature low relative humidity values
for all locations. Fortunately, we only foresee light winds
across the region for this afternoon.

Aside from these issues...there is a weak disturbance pushing
through SE Washington at this time. There is a pool of mid-level
moisture and a little instability associated with said feature.
According to radar and local observations...some of this was
manifesting itself as sprinkles. Based on extrapolation and fine
temporal resolution model data, we would expect most of this to
shift into Montana and south of the Camas Prairie by 2 pm.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High pressure ridge will deliver generally clear skies
and VFR conditions to all sites through 18z Tue. Main weather will
be associated with a weak disturbance tracking northeast through
SE Washington and the southern ID Panhandle. This could bring some
temporary mid level cigs to PUW and LWS and perhaps a sprinkle
through 21z...but most of that will occur east of these sites. fx


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        97  67  99  69  94  67 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  95  61  97  64  91  62 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Pullman        97  57  97  61  90  61 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Lewiston      103  69 103  72  97  68 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Colville       98  57 100  60  98  59 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      92  54  94  57  91  57 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Kellogg        92  61  93  62  88  60 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Moses Lake    102  64 103  67  98  67 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee     102  71 102  71  98  70 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak          101  65 103  66 101  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Washington Palouse.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 281833
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1133 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of Today...Strong ridge continues to build over the Inland
Northwest today. This will result in hot temperatures for all
locations with triple digit heat expected across portions of the
LC Valley...lower Columbia Basin...and Okanogan Valley. The
warmest temperatures will generally coincide with the heat
advisory which was issued earlier for the lower Columbia Basin and
LC Valley. The heat will also feature low relative humidity values
for all locations. Fortunately, we only foresee light winds
across the region for this afternoon.

Aside from these issues...there is a weak disturbance pushing
through SE Washington at this time. There is a pool of mid-level
moisture and a little instability associated with said feature.
According to radar and local observations...some of this was
manifesting itself as sprinkles. Based on extrapolation and fine
temporal resolution model data, we would expect most of this to
shift into Montana and south of the Camas Prairie by 2 pm.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High pressure ridge will deliver generally clear skies
and VFR conditions to all sites through 18z Tue. Main weather will
be associated with a weak disturbance tracking northeast through
SE Washington and the southern ID Panhandle. This could bring some
temporary mid level cigs to PUW and LWS and perhaps a sprinkle
through 21z...but most of that will occur east of these sites. fx


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        97  67  99  69  94  67 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  95  61  97  64  91  62 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Pullman        97  57  97  61  90  61 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Lewiston      103  69 103  72  97  68 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Colville       98  57 100  60  98  59 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      92  54  94  57  91  57 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Kellogg        92  61  93  62  88  60 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Moses Lake    102  64 103  67  98  67 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee     102  71 102  71  98  70 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak          101  65 103  66 101  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 281633
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
933 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED
OFF THE B.C. COAST. THE RESULTING LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
CASCADES AND ESPECIALLY IN OREGON IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. THE
MARINE LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW BUT SLOWLY BECOME MORE SOLID THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH A LITTLE SEEPAGE THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE B.C. COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE WEATHER
PATTERN THAT WILL AFFECT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH THIS WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE
LIGHT MOSTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS. WHILE A
MARINE LAYER WAS FORMING ALONG THE COAST...THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
WILL KEEP IT RATHER SHALLOW THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH WE MAY START TO
SEE SOME SEEPAGE INLAND THROUGH COASTAL GAPS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

THE AIR MASS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
IN THE UPPER 580S TO NEAR 590 DM AND 850 TEMPS CLOSE TO 20 DEG C.
WITH LESS HIGHER CLOUDS TODAY...THERE SHOULD BE MORE AFTERNOON HIGHS
INLAND CRACKING THE 90 DEGREE MARK. THE COAST HAS MORE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS THIS MORNING THAT SHOULD BACK OFF THE COAST A LITTLE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70.

THE AIR MASS ALOFT IS QUITE DRY TODAY. WE DID NOT SEE ANY LIGHTNING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WE MAY NOT TODAY EITHER. HAVE
SHRUNK OUR SLIGHT CHANCE TO JUST FAR EASTERN LANE COUNTY. THE 12Z
SALEM SOUNDING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE DRY AND MAINTAIN PW
VALUES AROUND 0.7 INCH...SO THE THREAT IS SMALL AT BEST.

THE CONTROLLING WEATHER PATTERN IS THE SAME ON TUESDAY...THOUGH
THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM
INLAND WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO 90. EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO CONTINUE
NEAR THE COAST WITH NIGHT AND MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LOCALLY
INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO KELSO EARLY
TUESDAY. ALSO...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO NEAR 1 INCH. THUS
EXPECT A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE OREGON CASCADES...PROBABLY STAYING SOUTH OF MOUNT
JEFFERSON. WHILE THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL TEND TO BE A BIT
DRY...A FEW MAY EVENTUALLY PRODUCE SOME RAINFALL.

THE PATTERN WEDNESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PWS REMAIN AROUND 1 INCH. THE LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PROBABLY KEEP THUNDERSTORMS MAY SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AGAIN.
THE MODELS IMPLY THE MARINE LAYER MAY BECOME MORE SOLID ALONG THE
COAST WEDNESDAY...AND MAY TRY TO EXTEND INLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND BUT
ANYTHING WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT. TEMPS INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEK THIS WEEK.NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW DUE TO THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEING POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTH WILL
ALLOW LOW-LEVEL STRATUS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND THE
LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER.  DECREASED CLOUD COVER SOUTH OF THIS AXIS LATER
THIS WEEK...BUT ONLY A LITTLE DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON THE
LOCATION OF THIS AXIS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE
CREST DUE TO SHORTWAVE IMPULSES RIDING UP ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THESE STORMS SHOULD MAINLY OCCUR DURING
AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS...BUT SOME MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON
TIMING. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRES OVER REGION...WITH DRY SWLY FLOW ALOFT. LIKE
PAST MORNINGS...WILL SEE PATCHY FOG IN AND AROUND COASTAL BAYS AFTER
16Z TUE. IN ADDITION...COASTAL IFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
COAST THIS MORNING...BEFORE BREAKING UP AND PUSHING OFFSHORE BY 18Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR WITH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CIRRUS. /27

KPDX AND APPROACHES...NO ADVERSE WX IMPACTS...WITH VFR. ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRES REMAINS OVER THE NE PAC...WITH THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW CALIF
AND FAR SW OREGON. PRES GRADIENTS WILL FLEX FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT
TIGHTEST GRADIENT REMAINS OVER S OREGON COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT WINDS EASE A TAD ON TUE AND WED.

SEAS RUNNING 4 TO 7 FT...WITH HIGHEST SEAS S OF TILLAMOOK WHERE
DURATION OF NW WINDS CONTINUE TO BUILD UP THE SEAS.   ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 281633
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
933 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED
OFF THE B.C. COAST. THE RESULTING LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
CASCADES AND ESPECIALLY IN OREGON IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. THE
MARINE LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW BUT SLOWLY BECOME MORE SOLID THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH A LITTLE SEEPAGE THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE B.C. COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE WEATHER
PATTERN THAT WILL AFFECT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH THIS WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE
LIGHT MOSTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS. WHILE A
MARINE LAYER WAS FORMING ALONG THE COAST...THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
WILL KEEP IT RATHER SHALLOW THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH WE MAY START TO
SEE SOME SEEPAGE INLAND THROUGH COASTAL GAPS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

THE AIR MASS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
IN THE UPPER 580S TO NEAR 590 DM AND 850 TEMPS CLOSE TO 20 DEG C.
WITH LESS HIGHER CLOUDS TODAY...THERE SHOULD BE MORE AFTERNOON HIGHS
INLAND CRACKING THE 90 DEGREE MARK. THE COAST HAS MORE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS THIS MORNING THAT SHOULD BACK OFF THE COAST A LITTLE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70.

THE AIR MASS ALOFT IS QUITE DRY TODAY. WE DID NOT SEE ANY LIGHTNING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WE MAY NOT TODAY EITHER. HAVE
SHRUNK OUR SLIGHT CHANCE TO JUST FAR EASTERN LANE COUNTY. THE 12Z
SALEM SOUNDING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE DRY AND MAINTAIN PW
VALUES AROUND 0.7 INCH...SO THE THREAT IS SMALL AT BEST.

THE CONTROLLING WEATHER PATTERN IS THE SAME ON TUESDAY...THOUGH
THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM
INLAND WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO 90. EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO CONTINUE
NEAR THE COAST WITH NIGHT AND MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LOCALLY
INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO KELSO EARLY
TUESDAY. ALSO...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO NEAR 1 INCH. THUS
EXPECT A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE OREGON CASCADES...PROBABLY STAYING SOUTH OF MOUNT
JEFFERSON. WHILE THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL TEND TO BE A BIT
DRY...A FEW MAY EVENTUALLY PRODUCE SOME RAINFALL.

THE PATTERN WEDNESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PWS REMAIN AROUND 1 INCH. THE LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PROBABLY KEEP THUNDERSTORMS MAY SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AGAIN.
THE MODELS IMPLY THE MARINE LAYER MAY BECOME MORE SOLID ALONG THE
COAST WEDNESDAY...AND MAY TRY TO EXTEND INLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND BUT
ANYTHING WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT. TEMPS INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEK THIS WEEK.NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW DUE TO THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEING POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTH WILL
ALLOW LOW-LEVEL STRATUS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND THE
LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER.  DECREASED CLOUD COVER SOUTH OF THIS AXIS LATER
THIS WEEK...BUT ONLY A LITTLE DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON THE
LOCATION OF THIS AXIS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE
CREST DUE TO SHORTWAVE IMPULSES RIDING UP ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THESE STORMS SHOULD MAINLY OCCUR DURING
AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS...BUT SOME MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON
TIMING. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRES OVER REGION...WITH DRY SWLY FLOW ALOFT. LIKE
PAST MORNINGS...WILL SEE PATCHY FOG IN AND AROUND COASTAL BAYS AFTER
16Z TUE. IN ADDITION...COASTAL IFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
COAST THIS MORNING...BEFORE BREAKING UP AND PUSHING OFFSHORE BY 18Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR WITH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CIRRUS. /27

KPDX AND APPROACHES...NO ADVERSE WX IMPACTS...WITH VFR. ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRES REMAINS OVER THE NE PAC...WITH THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW CALIF
AND FAR SW OREGON. PRES GRADIENTS WILL FLEX FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT
TIGHTEST GRADIENT REMAINS OVER S OREGON COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT WINDS EASE A TAD ON TUE AND WED.

SEAS RUNNING 4 TO 7 FT...WITH HIGHEST SEAS S OF TILLAMOOK WHERE
DURATION OF NW WINDS CONTINUE TO BUILD UP THE SEAS.   ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 281630
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS THINKING BELOW.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES SHOWING NO SIGNS OF
WEAKENING OR MOVING TODAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 580 DAM. MODEL 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP A DEGREE
OR TWO C FROM YESTERDAY TO PLUS 16 TO 19 C. AT THE SURFACE...THE
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN REMAINED INTACT. WITH THE SLIGHT
WARMING ALOFT...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR TO WARM
A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY. ALONG THE COAST AND STRAIT... WHERE THE
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S.

NO CHANGE IN THE PATTERN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE SIMILAR TO READINGS OF TODAY. WILL GO
WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST ON TUESDAY.

A SMALL CHANGE WILL BE IN THE OFFING FOR WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH THE 500 MB HEIGHTS
WEAKENING A TOUCH. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL ALSO PICK UP
A TOUCH. BOTH THESE CHANGES ARE MINOR AND IT CERTAINLY DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A FULL BLOWN MARINE PUSH BUT WITH THE SMALL CHANGES
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO SPREAD A LITTLE INLAND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER OVER
THE INTERIOR WITH A LITTLE MORE COOLING ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN...BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL 500
MB HEIGHTS REMAIN IN THE MID 580 DAM WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AT
THE SURFACE. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL PUSH
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE OREGON CASCADES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADES. WITH THE PATTERN
REMAINING INTACT FOR OVER A WEEK IN A HALF...WILL HAVE TO START
THINKING ABOUT A MARINE PUSH AT SOME POINT LATE IN THE PERIOD OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT RIGHT NOW NEITHER THE GFS OR THE ECMWF
INDICATED ANYTHING EXCEPT SHALLOW MARINE PUSHES. END RESULT...A
CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT WEATHER WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US
WILL PERSIST BEYOND TUESDAY GIVING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND LOW
PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO THE
AREA. WHILE SOME FOG AND STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL WORK
IN THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND ONTO THE COASTAL ZONES
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...THE AIR MASS OVER THE
INLAND AREAS WILL BE DRY AND STABLE RESULTING IN GOOD VFR
CONDITIONS. STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE COASTAL AREAS WILL PULL BACK
INTO THE WATERS OF THE PACIFIC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. ALBRECHT

KSEA...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS 8-12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO TURN
NORTHEASTERLY 4-7 KNOTS AFTER 05Z THIS EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND LOWER PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN VARYING DEGREES OF ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE NEXT
WEEK OR SO. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST
STRAIT...LIKELY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SCA LEVELS AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA EACH DAY. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
     CENTRAL/EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.


&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 281630
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS THINKING BELOW.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES SHOWING NO SIGNS OF
WEAKENING OR MOVING TODAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 580 DAM. MODEL 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP A DEGREE
OR TWO C FROM YESTERDAY TO PLUS 16 TO 19 C. AT THE SURFACE...THE
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN REMAINED INTACT. WITH THE SLIGHT
WARMING ALOFT...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR TO WARM
A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY. ALONG THE COAST AND STRAIT... WHERE THE
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S.

NO CHANGE IN THE PATTERN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE SIMILAR TO READINGS OF TODAY. WILL GO
WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST ON TUESDAY.

A SMALL CHANGE WILL BE IN THE OFFING FOR WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH THE 500 MB HEIGHTS
WEAKENING A TOUCH. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL ALSO PICK UP
A TOUCH. BOTH THESE CHANGES ARE MINOR AND IT CERTAINLY DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A FULL BLOWN MARINE PUSH BUT WITH THE SMALL CHANGES
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO SPREAD A LITTLE INLAND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER OVER
THE INTERIOR WITH A LITTLE MORE COOLING ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN...BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL 500
MB HEIGHTS REMAIN IN THE MID 580 DAM WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AT
THE SURFACE. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL PUSH
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE OREGON CASCADES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADES. WITH THE PATTERN
REMAINING INTACT FOR OVER A WEEK IN A HALF...WILL HAVE TO START
THINKING ABOUT A MARINE PUSH AT SOME POINT LATE IN THE PERIOD OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT RIGHT NOW NEITHER THE GFS OR THE ECMWF
INDICATED ANYTHING EXCEPT SHALLOW MARINE PUSHES. END RESULT...A
CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT WEATHER WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US
WILL PERSIST BEYOND TUESDAY GIVING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND LOW
PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO THE
AREA. WHILE SOME FOG AND STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL WORK
IN THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND ONTO THE COASTAL ZONES
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...THE AIR MASS OVER THE
INLAND AREAS WILL BE DRY AND STABLE RESULTING IN GOOD VFR
CONDITIONS. STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE COASTAL AREAS WILL PULL BACK
INTO THE WATERS OF THE PACIFIC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. ALBRECHT

KSEA...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS 8-12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO TURN
NORTHEASTERLY 4-7 KNOTS AFTER 05Z THIS EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND LOWER PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN VARYING DEGREES OF ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE NEXT
WEEK OR SO. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST
STRAIT...LIKELY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SCA LEVELS AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA EACH DAY. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
     CENTRAL/EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.


&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KOTX 281122
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
422 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today to Tuesday: Dry, hot conditions prevail. A high-amplitude
ridge is anchored over the Rockies and the Inland NW will be in a
southwest flow on its west side. Mid-level disturbances in the
flow skirt eastern WA and north ID, but aside from some clouds
they aren`t expected to generate much of a precipitation threat.
One disturbance, a mid-level shortwave, was tracking into WA early
this morning and all guidance brings it into Montana around
midday. The available instability (HLTT, elevated CAPE, negative
dtheta/dz lapse rates) looks too weak to generate much of
precipitation or thunder threat. In addition, much of the moisture
is above ~12,000 feet and this moisture shifts east-northeast
through the morning. There have been a few returns on radar, but
at most I might expect a few sprinkles. A secondary disturbance
follows on its heels and passes by southeast WA and the lower ID
Panhandle. But it appears to weaken as it transits the area. Any
SBCAPE that develops through the day looks well capped. So that
secondary disturbance also does not appear to bring much of a
threat of precipitation this afternoon. Models do generate some
precipitation near the Clearwaters into northeast Oregon, but this
is expected to stay here. In general look for decreasing clouds
through this morning. Tuesday looks relatively quiet and
disturbance-free, though one shortwave starts to approach late in
the day. Look for a few more high clouds to enter then. Models
once again generate some showers around the Clearwaters into
northeast Oregon. But these are not expected to reach into our
area. Temperatures are expected to be hot today and Tuesday. Under
the ridge and southwest flow, 850mb temperatures warm about 3 to 5
degrees C over Sunday. This supports highs well above normal. This
means many areas reaching the middle to upper 90s and some areas
pushing into the lower 100s. A heat advisory remains in place
across the Columbia Basin, Palouse and L-C valley. It is a
borderline event, meaning forecast highs skirt advisory criteria.
But either way expect noticeable summertime heat. /J. Cote`

Tuesday night through Sunday...Models are in good agreement in
maintaining a strong ridge pattern over the forecast area through
the next week with a stubborn surface thermal trough over the
Columbia Basin. As yet neither the GFS or ECMWF advertise a return
to a more progressive Pacific flow regime within the confidently
foreseeable future...at least the next 5 to 7 days. This argues
strongly for a continued hot forecast. Less confidence concerns
the threat of monsoonal moisture fed thunderstorm activity...which
if history is any guide should eventually come to fruition under
this pattern. The latest guidance is converging on a common
solution in bringing a moisture surge and short wave impulse
up from the south and clipping across the southeastern zones and
Idaho Panhandle Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. This is
the highest confidence thunderstorm forecast in the extended
period. Beyond Wednesday some more moisture surges are
probable...possibly encompassing more of the region than the
Panhandle...but the models are somewhat nebulous and out of
agreement regarding details and timing these thunder fuel
injections. Thus...a small mention of thunderstorms across mainly
the eastern half of the forecast area each day is warranted...but
no sure bets for any particular day being especially active at
this time. /Fugazzi


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Mid/high level clouds will move over the area Monday
morning, decreasing after 15-18Z. A sprinkle is possible over
eastern WA and north ID before 16Z. Otherwise weather will remain
VFR for the next 24 hours. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        97  67  99  69  94  67 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  95  61  97  64  91  62 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Pullman        97  57  97  61  90  61 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Lewiston      103  69 103  72  97  68 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Colville       98  57 100  60  98  59 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      92  54  94  57  91  57 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Kellogg        92  61  93  62  88  60 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Moses Lake    102  64 103  67  98  67 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee     102  71 102  71  98  70 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak          101  65 103  66 101  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for
     Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for
     Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 281122
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
422 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today to Tuesday: Dry, hot conditions prevail. A high-amplitude
ridge is anchored over the Rockies and the Inland NW will be in a
southwest flow on its west side. Mid-level disturbances in the
flow skirt eastern WA and north ID, but aside from some clouds
they aren`t expected to generate much of a precipitation threat.
One disturbance, a mid-level shortwave, was tracking into WA early
this morning and all guidance brings it into Montana around
midday. The available instability (HLTT, elevated CAPE, negative
dtheta/dz lapse rates) looks too weak to generate much of
precipitation or thunder threat. In addition, much of the moisture
is above ~12,000 feet and this moisture shifts east-northeast
through the morning. There have been a few returns on radar, but
at most I might expect a few sprinkles. A secondary disturbance
follows on its heels and passes by southeast WA and the lower ID
Panhandle. But it appears to weaken as it transits the area. Any
SBCAPE that develops through the day looks well capped. So that
secondary disturbance also does not appear to bring much of a
threat of precipitation this afternoon. Models do generate some
precipitation near the Clearwaters into northeast Oregon, but this
is expected to stay here. In general look for decreasing clouds
through this morning. Tuesday looks relatively quiet and
disturbance-free, though one shortwave starts to approach late in
the day. Look for a few more high clouds to enter then. Models
once again generate some showers around the Clearwaters into
northeast Oregon. But these are not expected to reach into our
area. Temperatures are expected to be hot today and Tuesday. Under
the ridge and southwest flow, 850mb temperatures warm about 3 to 5
degrees C over Sunday. This supports highs well above normal. This
means many areas reaching the middle to upper 90s and some areas
pushing into the lower 100s. A heat advisory remains in place
across the Columbia Basin, Palouse and L-C valley. It is a
borderline event, meaning forecast highs skirt advisory criteria.
But either way expect noticeable summertime heat. /J. Cote`

Tuesday night through Sunday...Models are in good agreement in
maintaining a strong ridge pattern over the forecast area through
the next week with a stubborn surface thermal trough over the
Columbia Basin. As yet neither the GFS or ECMWF advertise a return
to a more progressive Pacific flow regime within the confidently
foreseeable future...at least the next 5 to 7 days. This argues
strongly for a continued hot forecast. Less confidence concerns
the threat of monsoonal moisture fed thunderstorm activity...which
if history is any guide should eventually come to fruition under
this pattern. The latest guidance is converging on a common
solution in bringing a moisture surge and short wave impulse
up from the south and clipping across the southeastern zones and
Idaho Panhandle Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. This is
the highest confidence thunderstorm forecast in the extended
period. Beyond Wednesday some more moisture surges are
probable...possibly encompassing more of the region than the
Panhandle...but the models are somewhat nebulous and out of
agreement regarding details and timing these thunder fuel
injections. Thus...a small mention of thunderstorms across mainly
the eastern half of the forecast area each day is warranted...but
no sure bets for any particular day being especially active at
this time. /Fugazzi


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Mid/high level clouds will move over the area Monday
morning, decreasing after 15-18Z. A sprinkle is possible over
eastern WA and north ID before 16Z. Otherwise weather will remain
VFR for the next 24 hours. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        97  67  99  69  94  67 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  95  61  97  64  91  62 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Pullman        97  57  97  61  90  61 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Lewiston      103  69 103  72  97  68 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Colville       98  57 100  60  98  59 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      92  54  94  57  91  57 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Kellogg        92  61  93  62  88  60 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Moses Lake    102  64 103  67  98  67 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee     102  71 102  71  98  70 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak          101  65 103  66 101  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for
     Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for
     Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 281122
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
422 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today to Tuesday: Dry, hot conditions prevail. A high-amplitude
ridge is anchored over the Rockies and the Inland NW will be in a
southwest flow on its west side. Mid-level disturbances in the
flow skirt eastern WA and north ID, but aside from some clouds
they aren`t expected to generate much of a precipitation threat.
One disturbance, a mid-level shortwave, was tracking into WA early
this morning and all guidance brings it into Montana around
midday. The available instability (HLTT, elevated CAPE, negative
dtheta/dz lapse rates) looks too weak to generate much of
precipitation or thunder threat. In addition, much of the moisture
is above ~12,000 feet and this moisture shifts east-northeast
through the morning. There have been a few returns on radar, but
at most I might expect a few sprinkles. A secondary disturbance
follows on its heels and passes by southeast WA and the lower ID
Panhandle. But it appears to weaken as it transits the area. Any
SBCAPE that develops through the day looks well capped. So that
secondary disturbance also does not appear to bring much of a
threat of precipitation this afternoon. Models do generate some
precipitation near the Clearwaters into northeast Oregon, but this
is expected to stay here. In general look for decreasing clouds
through this morning. Tuesday looks relatively quiet and
disturbance-free, though one shortwave starts to approach late in
the day. Look for a few more high clouds to enter then. Models
once again generate some showers around the Clearwaters into
northeast Oregon. But these are not expected to reach into our
area. Temperatures are expected to be hot today and Tuesday. Under
the ridge and southwest flow, 850mb temperatures warm about 3 to 5
degrees C over Sunday. This supports highs well above normal. This
means many areas reaching the middle to upper 90s and some areas
pushing into the lower 100s. A heat advisory remains in place
across the Columbia Basin, Palouse and L-C valley. It is a
borderline event, meaning forecast highs skirt advisory criteria.
But either way expect noticeable summertime heat. /J. Cote`

Tuesday night through Sunday...Models are in good agreement in
maintaining a strong ridge pattern over the forecast area through
the next week with a stubborn surface thermal trough over the
Columbia Basin. As yet neither the GFS or ECMWF advertise a return
to a more progressive Pacific flow regime within the confidently
foreseeable future...at least the next 5 to 7 days. This argues
strongly for a continued hot forecast. Less confidence concerns
the threat of monsoonal moisture fed thunderstorm activity...which
if history is any guide should eventually come to fruition under
this pattern. The latest guidance is converging on a common
solution in bringing a moisture surge and short wave impulse
up from the south and clipping across the southeastern zones and
Idaho Panhandle Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. This is
the highest confidence thunderstorm forecast in the extended
period. Beyond Wednesday some more moisture surges are
probable...possibly encompassing more of the region than the
Panhandle...but the models are somewhat nebulous and out of
agreement regarding details and timing these thunder fuel
injections. Thus...a small mention of thunderstorms across mainly
the eastern half of the forecast area each day is warranted...but
no sure bets for any particular day being especially active at
this time. /Fugazzi


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Mid/high level clouds will move over the area Monday
morning, decreasing after 15-18Z. A sprinkle is possible over
eastern WA and north ID before 16Z. Otherwise weather will remain
VFR for the next 24 hours. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        97  67  99  69  94  67 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  95  61  97  64  91  62 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Pullman        97  57  97  61  90  61 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Lewiston      103  69 103  72  97  68 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Colville       98  57 100  60  98  59 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      92  54  94  57  91  57 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Kellogg        92  61  93  62  88  60 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Moses Lake    102  64 103  67  98  67 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee     102  71 102  71  98  70 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak          101  65 103  66 101  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for
     Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for
     Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 281122
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
422 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today to Tuesday: Dry, hot conditions prevail. A high-amplitude
ridge is anchored over the Rockies and the Inland NW will be in a
southwest flow on its west side. Mid-level disturbances in the
flow skirt eastern WA and north ID, but aside from some clouds
they aren`t expected to generate much of a precipitation threat.
One disturbance, a mid-level shortwave, was tracking into WA early
this morning and all guidance brings it into Montana around
midday. The available instability (HLTT, elevated CAPE, negative
dtheta/dz lapse rates) looks too weak to generate much of
precipitation or thunder threat. In addition, much of the moisture
is above ~12,000 feet and this moisture shifts east-northeast
through the morning. There have been a few returns on radar, but
at most I might expect a few sprinkles. A secondary disturbance
follows on its heels and passes by southeast WA and the lower ID
Panhandle. But it appears to weaken as it transits the area. Any
SBCAPE that develops through the day looks well capped. So that
secondary disturbance also does not appear to bring much of a
threat of precipitation this afternoon. Models do generate some
precipitation near the Clearwaters into northeast Oregon, but this
is expected to stay here. In general look for decreasing clouds
through this morning. Tuesday looks relatively quiet and
disturbance-free, though one shortwave starts to approach late in
the day. Look for a few more high clouds to enter then. Models
once again generate some showers around the Clearwaters into
northeast Oregon. But these are not expected to reach into our
area. Temperatures are expected to be hot today and Tuesday. Under
the ridge and southwest flow, 850mb temperatures warm about 3 to 5
degrees C over Sunday. This supports highs well above normal. This
means many areas reaching the middle to upper 90s and some areas
pushing into the lower 100s. A heat advisory remains in place
across the Columbia Basin, Palouse and L-C valley. It is a
borderline event, meaning forecast highs skirt advisory criteria.
But either way expect noticeable summertime heat. /J. Cote`

Tuesday night through Sunday...Models are in good agreement in
maintaining a strong ridge pattern over the forecast area through
the next week with a stubborn surface thermal trough over the
Columbia Basin. As yet neither the GFS or ECMWF advertise a return
to a more progressive Pacific flow regime within the confidently
foreseeable future...at least the next 5 to 7 days. This argues
strongly for a continued hot forecast. Less confidence concerns
the threat of monsoonal moisture fed thunderstorm activity...which
if history is any guide should eventually come to fruition under
this pattern. The latest guidance is converging on a common
solution in bringing a moisture surge and short wave impulse
up from the south and clipping across the southeastern zones and
Idaho Panhandle Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. This is
the highest confidence thunderstorm forecast in the extended
period. Beyond Wednesday some more moisture surges are
probable...possibly encompassing more of the region than the
Panhandle...but the models are somewhat nebulous and out of
agreement regarding details and timing these thunder fuel
injections. Thus...a small mention of thunderstorms across mainly
the eastern half of the forecast area each day is warranted...but
no sure bets for any particular day being especially active at
this time. /Fugazzi


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Mid/high level clouds will move over the area Monday
morning, decreasing after 15-18Z. A sprinkle is possible over
eastern WA and north ID before 16Z. Otherwise weather will remain
VFR for the next 24 hours. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        97  67  99  69  94  67 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  95  61  97  64  91  62 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Pullman        97  57  97  61  90  61 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Lewiston      103  69 103  72  97  68 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Colville       98  57 100  60  98  59 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      92  54  94  57  91  57 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Kellogg        92  61  93  62  88  60 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Moses Lake    102  64 103  67  98  67 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee     102  71 102  71  98  70 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak          101  65 103  66 101  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for
     Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for
     Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 281122
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
422 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today to Tuesday: Dry, hot conditions prevail. A high-amplitude
ridge is anchored over the Rockies and the Inland NW will be in a
southwest flow on its west side. Mid-level disturbances in the
flow skirt eastern WA and north ID, but aside from some clouds
they aren`t expected to generate much of a precipitation threat.
One disturbance, a mid-level shortwave, was tracking into WA early
this morning and all guidance brings it into Montana around
midday. The available instability (HLTT, elevated CAPE, negative
dtheta/dz lapse rates) looks too weak to generate much of
precipitation or thunder threat. In addition, much of the moisture
is above ~12,000 feet and this moisture shifts east-northeast
through the morning. There have been a few returns on radar, but
at most I might expect a few sprinkles. A secondary disturbance
follows on its heels and passes by southeast WA and the lower ID
Panhandle. But it appears to weaken as it transits the area. Any
SBCAPE that develops through the day looks well capped. So that
secondary disturbance also does not appear to bring much of a
threat of precipitation this afternoon. Models do generate some
precipitation near the Clearwaters into northeast Oregon, but this
is expected to stay here. In general look for decreasing clouds
through this morning. Tuesday looks relatively quiet and
disturbance-free, though one shortwave starts to approach late in
the day. Look for a few more high clouds to enter then. Models
once again generate some showers around the Clearwaters into
northeast Oregon. But these are not expected to reach into our
area. Temperatures are expected to be hot today and Tuesday. Under
the ridge and southwest flow, 850mb temperatures warm about 3 to 5
degrees C over Sunday. This supports highs well above normal. This
means many areas reaching the middle to upper 90s and some areas
pushing into the lower 100s. A heat advisory remains in place
across the Columbia Basin, Palouse and L-C valley. It is a
borderline event, meaning forecast highs skirt advisory criteria.
But either way expect noticeable summertime heat. /J. Cote`

Tuesday night through Sunday...Models are in good agreement in
maintaining a strong ridge pattern over the forecast area through
the next week with a stubborn surface thermal trough over the
Columbia Basin. As yet neither the GFS or ECMWF advertise a return
to a more progressive Pacific flow regime within the confidently
foreseeable future...at least the next 5 to 7 days. This argues
strongly for a continued hot forecast. Less confidence concerns
the threat of monsoonal moisture fed thunderstorm activity...which
if history is any guide should eventually come to fruition under
this pattern. The latest guidance is converging on a common
solution in bringing a moisture surge and short wave impulse
up from the south and clipping across the southeastern zones and
Idaho Panhandle Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. This is
the highest confidence thunderstorm forecast in the extended
period. Beyond Wednesday some more moisture surges are
probable...possibly encompassing more of the region than the
Panhandle...but the models are somewhat nebulous and out of
agreement regarding details and timing these thunder fuel
injections. Thus...a small mention of thunderstorms across mainly
the eastern half of the forecast area each day is warranted...but
no sure bets for any particular day being especially active at
this time. /Fugazzi


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Mid/high level clouds will move over the area Monday
morning, decreasing after 15-18Z. A sprinkle is possible over
eastern WA and north ID before 16Z. Otherwise weather will remain
VFR for the next 24 hours. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        97  67  99  69  94  67 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  95  61  97  64  91  62 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Pullman        97  57  97  61  90  61 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Lewiston      103  69 103  72  97  68 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Colville       98  57 100  60  98  59 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      92  54  94  57  91  57 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Kellogg        92  61  93  62  88  60 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Moses Lake    102  64 103  67  98  67 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee     102  71 102  71  98  70 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak          101  65 103  66 101  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for
     Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for
     Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$




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