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000
FXUS66 KOTX 282335
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
435 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue this
evening and Friday. However they will be more focused around the
mountains. Expect a warming trend into the weekend, with highs in
the 80s, with a lingering threat of mainly mountain showers and
thunderstorms. By next Monday and Tuesday the next best chance of
showers and thunderstorms arrives, with the potential for some
stronger storms and the return of cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight...The satellite loop indicates the forecast area is in a
dynamically null weak ridge between the exiting upper low visible
over Wyoming and Montana and another upper low slowly descending
out of British Columbia. Despite lack of upper level energy the
air mass remains moist and as the peak afternoon surface heating
period occurs a "Ring of Fire" pattern is developing with showers
and thunderstorms pulsing over the mountains surrounding the
Columbia Basin. While tightly confined to ridges and peaks due to
the lack of any dynamic forcing...there is a small chance some of
these storms could wander off of the mountains and over adjacent
valleys late this afternoon and early evening before collapsing.
Brief heavy rain is possible in these collapsing cores and thus
the main threat for the next few hours will be flash flooding or
debris flows on the Cascade Burn scars. However the chance of a
beefy storm maintaining it`s integrity as it moves off of the
peaks is very small and thus this risk is not great enough to
warrant any Flash Flood Watches.

As the sun sets tonight the lion`s share of these storms will die
out...however there is a weak short wave...barely visible on
satellite generating an area of cirrus over BC just east of
Vancouver Isle...that will transit the forecast area overnight
tonight. Model soundings suggest there will remain a ribbon of
elevated instability through tonight across the northern tier
zones so the complete extinction of showers and thunderstorms may
not occur with the loss of solar heating tonight. A chance of
showers and brief elevated thunderstorm or two is warranted across
the mountains of north of the basin near the Canadian Border
through the night. Otherwise conditions across the remainder of
the region will be mostly clear and benign with rather mild
overnight lows as a surface thermal trough remains established
over the region. /Fugazzi

Sunday through Thursday...An upper level trough will move through
the region, bringing showers and thunderstorms to the Inland
Northwest starting Sunday evening. The threat will continue
through at least Wednesday as the trough will be slow to exit the
area. The first area to come under the threat of thunderstorms
will be the southeast zones as moist southwest flow allows a mid
level theta-e ridge to expand across the region Sunday evening.
There will be ample mid level instability and a possible short
wave kicker as the approaching trough directs this energy into the
forecast area. This will keep thunderstorms going during the
overnight period into Monday morning. Decent shear and CAPE values
will allow some storms to become organized with heavy rain, hail
and strong outflow winds possible impacts. Once the upper low
settles in overhead late Monday, we will see more general showers
and thunderstorms fed by diurnal heating and mainly tied to the
higher elevations around the periphery of the forecast area until
the low finally moves out of the region later in the week. Daytime
temperatures will be on a significant cooling trend from Sunday to
Monday as the region comes under the influence of the upper low
with associated clouds and precipitation. Expect widespread 80s on
Sunday to be replaced by 70s for the first half of the work week.
/Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS: General low pressure with weak weather
disturbances moving through it keep scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the aviation area this evening. There should be
some decrease overnight but no real ending of convection in the
area. Daytime heating tomorrow after 21Z should allow for an
increase in the shower and thunderstorm activity not too
dissimilar to what occurred today. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  82  59  83  59  82 /  10  10  20  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  52  82  57  82  56  82 /  10  10  20  20  10  10
Pullman        50  81  58  81  57  81 /  10  10  20  20  10  30
Lewiston       56  88  64  88  62  89 /  10  10  20  20  20  40
Colville       54  83  55  84  54  85 /  40  40  40  20  20  10
Sandpoint      50  81  53  81  53  81 /  40  20  30  30  20  10
Kellogg        48  81  55  80  54  81 /  40  10  30  40  20  30
Moses Lake     58  89  59  90  58  91 /  10   0  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      63  88  61  89  60  89 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           57  87  54  90  53  89 /  20  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 282335
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
435 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue this
evening and Friday. However they will be more focused around the
mountains. Expect a warming trend into the weekend, with highs in
the 80s, with a lingering threat of mainly mountain showers and
thunderstorms. By next Monday and Tuesday the next best chance of
showers and thunderstorms arrives, with the potential for some
stronger storms and the return of cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight...The satellite loop indicates the forecast area is in a
dynamically null weak ridge between the exiting upper low visible
over Wyoming and Montana and another upper low slowly descending
out of British Columbia. Despite lack of upper level energy the
air mass remains moist and as the peak afternoon surface heating
period occurs a "Ring of Fire" pattern is developing with showers
and thunderstorms pulsing over the mountains surrounding the
Columbia Basin. While tightly confined to ridges and peaks due to
the lack of any dynamic forcing...there is a small chance some of
these storms could wander off of the mountains and over adjacent
valleys late this afternoon and early evening before collapsing.
Brief heavy rain is possible in these collapsing cores and thus
the main threat for the next few hours will be flash flooding or
debris flows on the Cascade Burn scars. However the chance of a
beefy storm maintaining it`s integrity as it moves off of the
peaks is very small and thus this risk is not great enough to
warrant any Flash Flood Watches.

As the sun sets tonight the lion`s share of these storms will die
out...however there is a weak short wave...barely visible on
satellite generating an area of cirrus over BC just east of
Vancouver Isle...that will transit the forecast area overnight
tonight. Model soundings suggest there will remain a ribbon of
elevated instability through tonight across the northern tier
zones so the complete extinction of showers and thunderstorms may
not occur with the loss of solar heating tonight. A chance of
showers and brief elevated thunderstorm or two is warranted across
the mountains of north of the basin near the Canadian Border
through the night. Otherwise conditions across the remainder of
the region will be mostly clear and benign with rather mild
overnight lows as a surface thermal trough remains established
over the region. /Fugazzi

Sunday through Thursday...An upper level trough will move through
the region, bringing showers and thunderstorms to the Inland
Northwest starting Sunday evening. The threat will continue
through at least Wednesday as the trough will be slow to exit the
area. The first area to come under the threat of thunderstorms
will be the southeast zones as moist southwest flow allows a mid
level theta-e ridge to expand across the region Sunday evening.
There will be ample mid level instability and a possible short
wave kicker as the approaching trough directs this energy into the
forecast area. This will keep thunderstorms going during the
overnight period into Monday morning. Decent shear and CAPE values
will allow some storms to become organized with heavy rain, hail
and strong outflow winds possible impacts. Once the upper low
settles in overhead late Monday, we will see more general showers
and thunderstorms fed by diurnal heating and mainly tied to the
higher elevations around the periphery of the forecast area until
the low finally moves out of the region later in the week. Daytime
temperatures will be on a significant cooling trend from Sunday to
Monday as the region comes under the influence of the upper low
with associated clouds and precipitation. Expect widespread 80s on
Sunday to be replaced by 70s for the first half of the work week.
/Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS: General low pressure with weak weather
disturbances moving through it keep scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the aviation area this evening. There should be
some decrease overnight but no real ending of convection in the
area. Daytime heating tomorrow after 21Z should allow for an
increase in the shower and thunderstorm activity not too
dissimilar to what occurred today. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  82  59  83  59  82 /  10  10  20  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  52  82  57  82  56  82 /  10  10  20  20  10  10
Pullman        50  81  58  81  57  81 /  10  10  20  20  10  30
Lewiston       56  88  64  88  62  89 /  10  10  20  20  20  40
Colville       54  83  55  84  54  85 /  40  40  40  20  20  10
Sandpoint      50  81  53  81  53  81 /  40  20  30  30  20  10
Kellogg        48  81  55  80  54  81 /  40  10  30  40  20  30
Moses Lake     58  89  59  90  58  91 /  10   0  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      63  88  61  89  60  89 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           57  87  54  90  53  89 /  20  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSEW 282241
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
340 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES THIS EVENING  AND AGAIN FRIDAY. A
SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING INCREASING SHOWERS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...LOW CLOUDS HAVE RETREATED TO THE COAST LEAVING SUNNY
SKIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT BUT REMAIN GENERALLY DRY AS A CLOSED LOW
WORKS ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
HELP BOOST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH FRI. LEADING TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES AND SUBTLY COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE BEEN SEEING CONVECTION BUBBLE
ALONG THE CREST WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
THE RIDGELINE. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT TO INCLUDE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY SEE SIMILAR HIGH
TEMPERATURES BUT A MUCH DIMINISHED THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES.

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BUILDING
HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY SUNDAY AHEAD OF A NEGATIVE-TILTED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL LIKELY
BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS HELP PULL
MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE SOUTH...SPREADING NORTH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE FLOW PATTERN IS A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE TO
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVES INLAND MONDAY.
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. AND LOWS IN THE MID TO LOWER 50S. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK BRINGING
DRIER CONDITIONS AND A TYPICAL PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS AND
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION...MARINE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND WERE STILL SQUIRTING EAST INTO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AT
TIMES...OTHERWISE IT HAS BEEN A SUNNY AFTERNOON MOST PLACES. OVER
THE CASCADE CREST THERE ARE SCATTERED CB AND TSTMS WHERE THE AIR IS
THE MOST UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL
PUSH BACK INLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH PROBABLY ABOUT THE SAME
COVERAGE FRIDAY MORNING AS THERE WAS THIS MORNING.

KSEA...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING NLY BREEZE. FOR
FRIDAY MORNING...THE MARINE LAYER WILL ONCE AGAIN LIKELY BE TOO
SHALLOW TO MAKE IT TO SEA TAC.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRESSURE INLAND
WILL GIVE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST
BREEZE WILL BE EACH EVENING IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND THE
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN STRAIT IS FOR A WLY 15-25 KT WIND WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT WIND
WAVES. AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE
COASTAL WATERS EAST INTO THE STRAIT...AND THEN PARTLY INTO THE
INLAND WATERS BY DAYBREAK WITH ANOTHER TYPICAL BURNOFF FRIDAY.

&&


.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KSEW 282241
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
340 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES THIS EVENING  AND AGAIN FRIDAY. A
SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING INCREASING SHOWERS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...LOW CLOUDS HAVE RETREATED TO THE COAST LEAVING SUNNY
SKIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT BUT REMAIN GENERALLY DRY AS A CLOSED LOW
WORKS ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
HELP BOOST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH FRI. LEADING TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES AND SUBTLY COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE BEEN SEEING CONVECTION BUBBLE
ALONG THE CREST WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
THE RIDGELINE. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT TO INCLUDE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY SEE SIMILAR HIGH
TEMPERATURES BUT A MUCH DIMINISHED THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES.

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BUILDING
HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY SUNDAY AHEAD OF A NEGATIVE-TILTED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL LIKELY
BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS HELP PULL
MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE SOUTH...SPREADING NORTH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE FLOW PATTERN IS A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE TO
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVES INLAND MONDAY.
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. AND LOWS IN THE MID TO LOWER 50S. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK BRINGING
DRIER CONDITIONS AND A TYPICAL PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS AND
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION...MARINE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND WERE STILL SQUIRTING EAST INTO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AT
TIMES...OTHERWISE IT HAS BEEN A SUNNY AFTERNOON MOST PLACES. OVER
THE CASCADE CREST THERE ARE SCATTERED CB AND TSTMS WHERE THE AIR IS
THE MOST UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL
PUSH BACK INLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH PROBABLY ABOUT THE SAME
COVERAGE FRIDAY MORNING AS THERE WAS THIS MORNING.

KSEA...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING NLY BREEZE. FOR
FRIDAY MORNING...THE MARINE LAYER WILL ONCE AGAIN LIKELY BE TOO
SHALLOW TO MAKE IT TO SEA TAC.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRESSURE INLAND
WILL GIVE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST
BREEZE WILL BE EACH EVENING IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND THE
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN STRAIT IS FOR A WLY 15-25 KT WIND WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT WIND
WAVES. AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE
COASTAL WATERS EAST INTO THE STRAIT...AND THEN PARTLY INTO THE
INLAND WATERS BY DAYBREAK WITH ANOTHER TYPICAL BURNOFF FRIDAY.

&&


.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KSEW 282241
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
340 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES THIS EVENING  AND AGAIN FRIDAY. A
SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING INCREASING SHOWERS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...LOW CLOUDS HAVE RETREATED TO THE COAST LEAVING SUNNY
SKIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT BUT REMAIN GENERALLY DRY AS A CLOSED LOW
WORKS ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
HELP BOOST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH FRI. LEADING TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES AND SUBTLY COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE BEEN SEEING CONVECTION BUBBLE
ALONG THE CREST WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
THE RIDGELINE. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT TO INCLUDE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY SEE SIMILAR HIGH
TEMPERATURES BUT A MUCH DIMINISHED THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES.

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BUILDING
HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY SUNDAY AHEAD OF A NEGATIVE-TILTED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL LIKELY
BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS HELP PULL
MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE SOUTH...SPREADING NORTH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE FLOW PATTERN IS A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE TO
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVES INLAND MONDAY.
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. AND LOWS IN THE MID TO LOWER 50S. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK BRINGING
DRIER CONDITIONS AND A TYPICAL PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS AND
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION...MARINE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND WERE STILL SQUIRTING EAST INTO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AT
TIMES...OTHERWISE IT HAS BEEN A SUNNY AFTERNOON MOST PLACES. OVER
THE CASCADE CREST THERE ARE SCATTERED CB AND TSTMS WHERE THE AIR IS
THE MOST UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL
PUSH BACK INLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH PROBABLY ABOUT THE SAME
COVERAGE FRIDAY MORNING AS THERE WAS THIS MORNING.

KSEA...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING NLY BREEZE. FOR
FRIDAY MORNING...THE MARINE LAYER WILL ONCE AGAIN LIKELY BE TOO
SHALLOW TO MAKE IT TO SEA TAC.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRESSURE INLAND
WILL GIVE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST
BREEZE WILL BE EACH EVENING IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND THE
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN STRAIT IS FOR A WLY 15-25 KT WIND WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT WIND
WAVES. AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE
COASTAL WATERS EAST INTO THE STRAIT...AND THEN PARTLY INTO THE
INLAND WATERS BY DAYBREAK WITH ANOTHER TYPICAL BURNOFF FRIDAY.

&&


.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KSEW 282241
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
340 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES THIS EVENING  AND AGAIN FRIDAY. A
SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING INCREASING SHOWERS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...LOW CLOUDS HAVE RETREATED TO THE COAST LEAVING SUNNY
SKIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT BUT REMAIN GENERALLY DRY AS A CLOSED LOW
WORKS ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
HELP BOOST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH FRI. LEADING TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES AND SUBTLY COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE BEEN SEEING CONVECTION BUBBLE
ALONG THE CREST WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
THE RIDGELINE. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT TO INCLUDE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY SEE SIMILAR HIGH
TEMPERATURES BUT A MUCH DIMINISHED THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES.

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT BUILDING
HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY SUNDAY AHEAD OF A NEGATIVE-TILTED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL LIKELY
BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS HELP PULL
MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE SOUTH...SPREADING NORTH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE FLOW PATTERN IS A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE TO
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVES INLAND MONDAY.
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. AND LOWS IN THE MID TO LOWER 50S. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK BRINGING
DRIER CONDITIONS AND A TYPICAL PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS AND
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION...MARINE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND WERE STILL SQUIRTING EAST INTO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AT
TIMES...OTHERWISE IT HAS BEEN A SUNNY AFTERNOON MOST PLACES. OVER
THE CASCADE CREST THERE ARE SCATTERED CB AND TSTMS WHERE THE AIR IS
THE MOST UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL
PUSH BACK INLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH PROBABLY ABOUT THE SAME
COVERAGE FRIDAY MORNING AS THERE WAS THIS MORNING.

KSEA...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING NLY BREEZE. FOR
FRIDAY MORNING...THE MARINE LAYER WILL ONCE AGAIN LIKELY BE TOO
SHALLOW TO MAKE IT TO SEA TAC.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRESSURE INLAND
WILL GIVE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST
BREEZE WILL BE EACH EVENING IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND THE
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN STRAIT IS FOR A WLY 15-25 KT WIND WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT WIND
WAVES. AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE
COASTAL WATERS EAST INTO THE STRAIT...AND THEN PARTLY INTO THE
INLAND WATERS BY DAYBREAK WITH ANOTHER TYPICAL BURNOFF FRIDAY.

&&


.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 282201 RRA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
301 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. MEANWHILE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. WARMER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST LIKELY PEAKING ON
FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI AND SAT. THE HIGHER
CASCADES WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIM THREAT OF LATE-DAY
THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEXT UPPER LOW SWINGS
TOWARD THE OREGON COAST SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A LITTLE MORE COOLING
BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS. A MUCH DEEPER MARINE
LAYER IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
BUILDING OVER THE PAC NW TODAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO THE PAC NW THROUGH SAT. A CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE INTO B.C.
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WILL ACT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE A
BIT...BUT OTHERWISE HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER.

WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS IN CONTROL TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION IS AT THE COAST...WHERE
MARINE CLOUDS AND A COOLING NW BREEZE ARE KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 50S
AND 60S. TEMPERATURES ARE STEADILY CLIMBING OVER THE INTERIOR...WITH
CURRENT OBSERVED TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S FOR MOST OF THE
LOWLANDS. EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN CUMULUS BUILDING ALONG
THE CASCADE CREST SINCE AROUND MIDDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
A FEW OF THE CUMULUS BUILDUPS MAY DEVELOP INTO THUNDERSHOWERS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FRI LOOKS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY. EXPECT A WEAK MARINE PUSH
OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS ONLY ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE COAST RANGE GAPS
AND A LITTLE WAY UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER...LEAVING MOST OF THE INTERIOR
CLOUD FREE. FRI LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE STRETCH WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY. A SLIGHT THREAT OF
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST
WILL CONTINUE AS WELL.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER US FOR ONE LAST DAY ON SAT. EXPECT
IT WILL STILL BE WARM...BUT IT APPEARS THAT HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
ARRIVING DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
LOW. ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPS ARE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND FRI...EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS MAY KNOCK SURFACE TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY. THERE MAY AGAIN BE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN THREAT
REMAINING ALONG THE LANE COUNTY CASCADE CREST.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE COAST FROM THE SW ON SUN. THIS
WILL BRING A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND COOL TEMPS A LITTLE
MORE. THE FCST MODELS ALSO INDICATE A BETTER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FIRST AND STRONGEST
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE N-NE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT PROVIDING
FOR MUCH COOLER HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY GIVEN THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
AND MODELS SUGGESTING H8 TEMPS DECREASING AROUND 10 DEG C BY MONDAY
MORNING. WHILE MODELS SUGGEST SOME INSTABILITY...PARTICULARLY
TUESDAY AS THE COLD CORE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THINK MUCH
COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY LIMIT THUNDER CHANCES.
HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MAY ENHANCE THIS
POTENTIAL AT TIMES BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO REMAINS LOW
ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR NOW
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAINTAINING A CHANCE FOR MONDAY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE CASCADES SOUTH OF AROUND MT HOOD.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY REBOUND A LITTLE...CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMS...FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS SHOWERS END AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROVIDING FOR SOME AFTERNOON SUN AFTER MORNING
CLOUDS.  CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNDER DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES
THROUGH 04Z. MVFR STRATUS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12-18Z ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER. MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WILL BRING A
MIXTURE OF IFR/MVFR CIGS...WITH IFR VSBY POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRI.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE CASCADES THROUGH 04Z. MVFR
STRATUS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12-18Z. /64

&&

.MARINE...BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MIXED SEAS
AROUND 4 TO 6 FT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
SWELL TRAINS OUT OF THE W AND SW. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 282201 RRA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
301 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. MEANWHILE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. WARMER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST LIKELY PEAKING ON
FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI AND SAT. THE HIGHER
CASCADES WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIM THREAT OF LATE-DAY
THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEXT UPPER LOW SWINGS
TOWARD THE OREGON COAST SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A LITTLE MORE COOLING
BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS. A MUCH DEEPER MARINE
LAYER IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
BUILDING OVER THE PAC NW TODAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO THE PAC NW THROUGH SAT. A CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE INTO B.C.
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WILL ACT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE A
BIT...BUT OTHERWISE HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER.

WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS IN CONTROL TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION IS AT THE COAST...WHERE
MARINE CLOUDS AND A COOLING NW BREEZE ARE KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 50S
AND 60S. TEMPERATURES ARE STEADILY CLIMBING OVER THE INTERIOR...WITH
CURRENT OBSERVED TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S FOR MOST OF THE
LOWLANDS. EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN CUMULUS BUILDING ALONG
THE CASCADE CREST SINCE AROUND MIDDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
A FEW OF THE CUMULUS BUILDUPS MAY DEVELOP INTO THUNDERSHOWERS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FRI LOOKS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY. EXPECT A WEAK MARINE PUSH
OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS ONLY ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE COAST RANGE GAPS
AND A LITTLE WAY UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER...LEAVING MOST OF THE INTERIOR
CLOUD FREE. FRI LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE STRETCH WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY. A SLIGHT THREAT OF
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST
WILL CONTINUE AS WELL.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER US FOR ONE LAST DAY ON SAT. EXPECT
IT WILL STILL BE WARM...BUT IT APPEARS THAT HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
ARRIVING DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
LOW. ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPS ARE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND FRI...EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS MAY KNOCK SURFACE TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY. THERE MAY AGAIN BE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN THREAT
REMAINING ALONG THE LANE COUNTY CASCADE CREST.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE COAST FROM THE SW ON SUN. THIS
WILL BRING A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND COOL TEMPS A LITTLE
MORE. THE FCST MODELS ALSO INDICATE A BETTER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FIRST AND STRONGEST
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE N-NE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT PROVIDING
FOR MUCH COOLER HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY GIVEN THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
AND MODELS SUGGESTING H8 TEMPS DECREASING AROUND 10 DEG C BY MONDAY
MORNING. WHILE MODELS SUGGEST SOME INSTABILITY...PARTICULARLY
TUESDAY AS THE COLD CORE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THINK MUCH
COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY LIMIT THUNDER CHANCES.
HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MAY ENHANCE THIS
POTENTIAL AT TIMES BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO REMAINS LOW
ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR NOW
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAINTAINING A CHANCE FOR MONDAY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE CASCADES SOUTH OF AROUND MT HOOD.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY REBOUND A LITTLE...CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMS...FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS SHOWERS END AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROVIDING FOR SOME AFTERNOON SUN AFTER MORNING
CLOUDS.  CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNDER DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES
THROUGH 04Z. MVFR STRATUS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12-18Z ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER. MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WILL BRING A
MIXTURE OF IFR/MVFR CIGS...WITH IFR VSBY POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRI.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE CASCADES THROUGH 04Z. MVFR
STRATUS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12-18Z. /64

&&

.MARINE...BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MIXED SEAS
AROUND 4 TO 6 FT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
SWELL TRAINS OUT OF THE W AND SW. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 282116
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
216 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue this
evening and Friday. However they will be more focused around the
mountains. Expect a warming trend into the weekend, with highs in
the 80s, with a lingering threat of mainly mountain showers and
thunderstorms. By next Monday and Tuesday the next best chance of
showers and thunderstorms arrives, with the potential for some
stronger storms and the return of cooler temperatures.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight...The satellite loop indicates the forecast area is in a
dynamically null weak ridge between the exiting upper low visible
over Wyoming and Montana and another upper low slowly descending
out of British Columbia. Despite lack of upper level energy the
air mass remains moist and as the peak afternoon surface heating
period occurs a "Ring of Fire" pattern is developing with showers
and thunderstorms pulsing over the mountains surrounding the
Columbia Basin. While tightly confined to ridges and peaks due to
the lack of any dynamic forcing...there is a small chance some of
these storms could wander off of the mountains and over adjacent
valleys late this afternoon and early evening before collapsing.
Brief heavy rain is possible in these collapsing cores and thus
the main threat for the next few hours will be flash flooding or
debris flows on the Cascade Burn scars. However the chance of a
beefy storm maintaining it`s integrity as it moves off of the
peaks is very small and thus this risk is not great enough to
warrant any Flash Flood Watches.

As the sun sets tonight the lion`s share of these storms will die
out...however there is a weak short wave...barely visible on
satellite generating an area of cirrus over BC just east of
Vancouver Isle...that will transit the forecast area overnight
tonight. Model soundings suggest there will remain a ribbon of
elevated instability through tonight across the northern tier
zones so the complete extinction of showers and thunderstorms may
not occur with the loss of solar heating tonight. A chance of
showers and brief elevated thunderstorm or two is warranted across
the mountains of north of the basin near the Canadian Border
through the night. Otherwise conditions across the remainder of
the region will be mostly clear and benign with rather mild
overnight lows as a surface thermal trough remains established
over the region. /Fugazzi

Friday through Saturday night: The Inland NW will be sandwiched between
a ridge of high pressure building north from the Desert Southwest
and an area of low pressure anchored over south-central British
Columbia. This will equate to a modest warming trend and continued
threat for showers and thunderstorms, especially in the mountains.
A weak...westerly jet will develop between these features and
sling a few midlevel waves through the region. In addition to
afternoon heating over the mountains, these waves will be the
focus for showers and thunderstorms. Meanwhile, the lower levels
will warm nearly a dozen degrees above normal or generally in the
80s to near 90F. The warming will equate to increasing
instability. The jet will equate to increase wind shear. So the
wildcard will be the lift. Confidence is increasing that the
mountains will provide this lift given the strong afternoon
heating. The timing of each of these shortwaves will be key
whether a few clusters of storms will become better organized and
make it into the Basin. Generally speaking, if one of these
features come through during peak heating, we could see a few
stronger cells however at this time, confidence is low for any
strong convection with models suggesting timing of these waves
will not be favorable (either morning or night) but this will need
to be monitored closely.

So in summary...most thunderstorm activity Friday afternoon will be
in the mountains with nearly ridges carrying some threat. A
shortwave comes through Friday night bringing the potential for
scattered showers and perhaps thunder with the track currently
favoring southeastern WA and Idaho Panhandle. Most thunderstorm
activity on Saturday afternoon will focus on the higher terrain of
the Idaho Panhandle and NE Mtns of WA with drier conditions
returning to the Cascades. Another weak wave will keep the threat
for showers across far southeastern WA and the lower ID Panhandle
Saturday night. /sb

Sunday through Thursday...An upper level trough will move through
the region, bringing showers and thunderstorms to the Inland
Northwest starting Sunday evening. The threat will continue
through at least Wednesday as the trough will be slow to exit the
area. The first area to come under the threat of thunderstorms
will be the southeast zones as moist southwest flow allows a mid
level theta-e ridge to expand across the region Sunday evening.
There will be ample mid level instability and a possible short
wave kicker as the approaching trough directs this energy into the
forecast area. This will keep thunderstorms going during the
overnight period into Monday morning. Decent shear and CAPE values
will allow some storms to become organized with heavy rain, hail
and strong outflow winds possible impacts. Once the upper low
settles in overhead late Monday, we will see more general showers
and thunderstorms fed by diurnal heating and mainly tied to the
higher elevations around the periphery of the forecast area until
the low finally moves out of the region later in the week. Daytime
temperatures will be on a significant cooling trend from Sunday to
Monday as the region comes under the influence of the upper low
with associated clouds and precipitation. Expect widespread 80s on
Sunday to be replaced by 70s for the first half of the work week.
/Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS: A weak impulse of mid level energy is
producing light showers over the Central Panhandle Mtns this
morning. Higher heights will stabilize the atmosphere overall
behind this batch of showers. With that said, the boundary layer
remains moist and models show a weak cap over the mountains. Expect
increasing showers with isolated thunderstorms over the higher
terrain surrounding the Columbia Basin this afternoon; however,
this convection is not expected to impact the TAF locations. There
will be a weak impulse that moves into the region off of the
Pacific tonight should keep showers going over the northern mtns
overnight./MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  82  59  83  59  82 /  10  10  20  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  52  82  57  82  56  82 /  10  10  20  20  10  10
Pullman        50  81  58  81  57  81 /  10  10  20  20  10  30
Lewiston       56  88  64  88  62  89 /  10  10  20  20  20  40
Colville       54  83  55  84  54  85 /  40  40  40  20  20  10
Sandpoint      50  81  53  81  53  81 /  40  20  30  30  20  10
Kellogg        48  81  55  80  54  81 /  40  10  30  40  20  30
Moses Lake     58  89  59  90  58  91 /  10   0  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      63  88  61  89  60  89 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           57  87  54  90  53  89 /  20  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 281655
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
955 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue today
and Friday. However they will be more focused around the
mountains. Expect a warming trend into the weekend, with highs in
the 80s, with a lingering threat of mainly mountain showers and
thunderstorms. By next Monday and Tuesday the next best chance of
showers and thunderstorms arrives, with the potential for some
stronger storms and the return of cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite indicates the upper level low pressure which has
generated scattered showers and thunderstorms over the last two
days has now ejected out of the forecast area to the east. A weak
ridge aloft is developing between this exiting system and a
second upper low over coastal British Columbia. This ridging will
assist in suppressing convective activity this afternoon and
evening over the Columbia Basin...but moisture and instability
will still be available to be triggered by orographic
forcing...and in the northern Idaho Panhandle some weak dynamic
energy is forecasted by both the latest NAM and GFS models
associated with a weak embedded wave passing through the northwest
flow. Thus...forecast for this afternoon and evening will not
change appreciably over the forecast inherited from the mid shift.
a generally sunny-partly cloudy day and warming temperatures over
the basin...and another round of scattered mountain showers and a
few afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS: A weak impulse of mid level energy is
producing light showers over the Central Panhandle Mtns this
morning. Higher heights will stabilize the atmosphere overall
behind this batch of showers. With that said, the boundary layer
remains moist and models show a weak cap over the mountains. Expect
increasing showers with isolated thunderstorms over the higher
terrain surrounding the Columbia Basin this afternoon; however,
this convection is not expected to impact the TAF locations. There
will be a weak impulse that moves into the region off of the
Pacific tonight should keep showers going over the northern mtns
overnight./MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  57  82  59  82  59 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  78  54  82  57  82  56 /  10  10  10  20  20  10
Pullman        75  52  82  57  80  56 /  20  10  10  20  20  10
Lewiston       83  58  88  64  87  62 /  10  10  10  20  20  20
Colville       82  54  83  55  85  53 /  30  40  40  30  20  20
Sandpoint      78  51  81  52  80  52 /  40  40  30  20  20  20
Kellogg        76  49  81  54  80  53 /  40  40  20  30  30  20
Moses Lake     86  58  90  59  91  58 /   0  10   0  10  10  10
Wenatchee      86  64  89  63  89  62 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           86  56  87  54  89  53 /  10  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 281655
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
955 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue today
and Friday. However they will be more focused around the
mountains. Expect a warming trend into the weekend, with highs in
the 80s, with a lingering threat of mainly mountain showers and
thunderstorms. By next Monday and Tuesday the next best chance of
showers and thunderstorms arrives, with the potential for some
stronger storms and the return of cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite indicates the upper level low pressure which has
generated scattered showers and thunderstorms over the last two
days has now ejected out of the forecast area to the east. A weak
ridge aloft is developing between this exiting system and a
second upper low over coastal British Columbia. This ridging will
assist in suppressing convective activity this afternoon and
evening over the Columbia Basin...but moisture and instability
will still be available to be triggered by orographic
forcing...and in the northern Idaho Panhandle some weak dynamic
energy is forecasted by both the latest NAM and GFS models
associated with a weak embedded wave passing through the northwest
flow. Thus...forecast for this afternoon and evening will not
change appreciably over the forecast inherited from the mid shift.
a generally sunny-partly cloudy day and warming temperatures over
the basin...and another round of scattered mountain showers and a
few afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS: A weak impulse of mid level energy is
producing light showers over the Central Panhandle Mtns this
morning. Higher heights will stabilize the atmosphere overall
behind this batch of showers. With that said, the boundary layer
remains moist and models show a weak cap over the mountains. Expect
increasing showers with isolated thunderstorms over the higher
terrain surrounding the Columbia Basin this afternoon; however,
this convection is not expected to impact the TAF locations. There
will be a weak impulse that moves into the region off of the
Pacific tonight should keep showers going over the northern mtns
overnight./MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  57  82  59  82  59 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  78  54  82  57  82  56 /  10  10  10  20  20  10
Pullman        75  52  82  57  80  56 /  20  10  10  20  20  10
Lewiston       83  58  88  64  87  62 /  10  10  10  20  20  20
Colville       82  54  83  55  85  53 /  30  40  40  30  20  20
Sandpoint      78  51  81  52  80  52 /  40  40  30  20  20  20
Kellogg        76  49  81  54  80  53 /  40  40  20  30  30  20
Moses Lake     86  58  90  59  91  58 /   0  10   0  10  10  10
Wenatchee      86  64  89  63  89  62 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           86  56  87  54  89  53 /  10  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 281626 RRA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
926 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY. EXPECT A LITTLE MORE WARMING
TODAY...AND THEN INLAND DAYTIME TEMPERATURE SHOULD PEAK FRIDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN SATURDAY. THE HIGHER CASCADES WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIM THREAT OF LATE-DAY THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEXT UPPER LOW SWINGS CLOSER TO THE OREGON COAST
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A LITTLE MORE COOLING BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF
CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS. A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PLENTY OF MARINE STRATUS AT THE
COAST THIS MORNING. A WEAK INLAND PUSH BROUGHT A THIN STRATUS LAYER
INTO THE COASTAL GAPS AND UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA. CLOUDS FILLED IN THE
I-5 CORRIDOR IN SW WASH AND REACHED THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO
AREA. THE REST OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY STAYED CLOUD FREE. EXPECT THE
INLAND STRATUS TO BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TODAY...LIKELY BY AROUND
18Z. THEN ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPS ARE
FCST TO REACH 14 TO 15 C WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HIGHS INTO
THE LOW 80S FOR THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. THE COAST WILL STAY MUCH
COOLER WITH CLOUDS HANGING ON FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND A NW BREEZE OFF
OF THE OCEAN.

...PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED 149 AM THU MAY 28...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL IDAHO...AND A SECOND
LOW NEAR 55N 131W. A 500 MB RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS BETWEEN 125W AND 130W.
WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWS A DRY SLOT SLIDING SOUTH OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND
AND THE WA COAST. ON THE SMALLER SCALE...STRATUS HAS ALREADY REACHED
KKLS AT 08Z. THE 975 MB RH FORECAST FROM THE NAM VALID 09Z WAS A
LITTLE BEHIND...SHOWING THE 90 PCT OR GREATER VALUES A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST. MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE HIGHER CASCADES. THE UPPER LOW
THAT WAS CENTERED NEAR THE OREGON...WASHINGTON...IDAHO TRIPLE-POINT
00Z THU WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...MODEL
SOUNDINGS FOR A POINT NEAR SANTIAM PASS...ESPECIALLY THE
NAM...MAINTAIN SOME DEGREE OF INSTABILITY FROM LATE-AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING TODAY AND FRI. BELIEVE THE MODELS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
OVER-DOING THE LOW-LEVEL DEW POINTS...THUS GENERATING
HIGHER CAPE VALUES. ACTUALLY THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...
ALBEIT SLIM...WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER S WA CASCADES.

EXPECT A THINNER MARINE LAYER TODAY. THE 06Z NAM DOES NOT SHOW MARINE
STRATUS REACHING KPDX...ALTHOUGH THE HI-RES ARC DOES INDICATE STRATUS
GETTING TO NEAR MULTNOMAH FALLS BY 15Z. HI-RES MODEL ALSO SUGGESTING
THE BEACHES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY. MAY BE A SHORT PERIOD OF SCATTERED
SKY CONDITIONS LATE IN THE DAY FROM ABOUT KONP NORTHWARD. MODEL 850
MB TEMPS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15C TODAY IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...
UP ABOUT 1 DEG FROM WED. THIS SHOULD PUT THE INLAND VALLEYS IN THE
LOWER 80S. WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE FRI WITH A SLIGHTLY WARMER START.
THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN A BIT LATE FRI AS AN UPPER LOW OVER
NRN BRITISH COLUMBIA SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH.

LITTLE CHANGE SAT WITH 500 MB HIGH PRES REMAINING OVER THE AREA. A
SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION IN THE RIDGE SAT AFTERNOON DUE TO A DEVELOPING
LOW MODELS SHOW NEAR 34N 138W SAT AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO INDUCES
SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE SWLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE REGION. WILL LEAVE
THE SLIGHT THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES SAT
AFTERNOON. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SAT NIGHT WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARING 130W BY EARLY SUN. AS THIS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INLAND...INCREASING CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN BY LATE SUN
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIDES ONSHORE AND
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES
SOUTH OF AROUND MT HOOD. AS THIS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG
A GENERALLY SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST PATH ACROSS THE REGION AND
THEN EAST OF THE CASCADES...EXPECT CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER
WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND MIDWEEK. WHILE SOME MODEST
DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN EVOLUTION BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION AND TIMING OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REMARKABLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE SHOWERY PATTERN ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR INLAND WITH IFR STRATUS ALONG THE COLUMBIA
RIVER. EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO THIN AND LIFT THROUGH 18Z. DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS INLAND VFR...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES BETWEEN 20-04Z.
MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A MIXTURE OF
IFR/MVFR CIGS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...IFR STRATUS AROUND 600 FT WILL CONTINUE TO
BURN OFF THROUGH 17Z. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRI. /64

&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL. HIGH PRES REMAINS LOCKED OVER
THE NE PAC...WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENTS. SEAS CONTINUE AS A MIX OF W
AND SW SWELL TRAINS...BUT OVERALL SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 5 TO 6 FT
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 281626 RRA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
926 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY. EXPECT A LITTLE MORE WARMING
TODAY...AND THEN INLAND DAYTIME TEMPERATURE SHOULD PEAK FRIDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN SATURDAY. THE HIGHER CASCADES WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIM THREAT OF LATE-DAY THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEXT UPPER LOW SWINGS CLOSER TO THE OREGON COAST
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A LITTLE MORE COOLING BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF
CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS. A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PLENTY OF MARINE STRATUS AT THE
COAST THIS MORNING. A WEAK INLAND PUSH BROUGHT A THIN STRATUS LAYER
INTO THE COASTAL GAPS AND UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA. CLOUDS FILLED IN THE
I-5 CORRIDOR IN SW WASH AND REACHED THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO
AREA. THE REST OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY STAYED CLOUD FREE. EXPECT THE
INLAND STRATUS TO BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TODAY...LIKELY BY AROUND
18Z. THEN ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPS ARE
FCST TO REACH 14 TO 15 C WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HIGHS INTO
THE LOW 80S FOR THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. THE COAST WILL STAY MUCH
COOLER WITH CLOUDS HANGING ON FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND A NW BREEZE OFF
OF THE OCEAN.

...PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED 149 AM THU MAY 28...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL IDAHO...AND A SECOND
LOW NEAR 55N 131W. A 500 MB RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS BETWEEN 125W AND 130W.
WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWS A DRY SLOT SLIDING SOUTH OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND
AND THE WA COAST. ON THE SMALLER SCALE...STRATUS HAS ALREADY REACHED
KKLS AT 08Z. THE 975 MB RH FORECAST FROM THE NAM VALID 09Z WAS A
LITTLE BEHIND...SHOWING THE 90 PCT OR GREATER VALUES A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST. MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE HIGHER CASCADES. THE UPPER LOW
THAT WAS CENTERED NEAR THE OREGON...WASHINGTON...IDAHO TRIPLE-POINT
00Z THU WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...MODEL
SOUNDINGS FOR A POINT NEAR SANTIAM PASS...ESPECIALLY THE
NAM...MAINTAIN SOME DEGREE OF INSTABILITY FROM LATE-AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING TODAY AND FRI. BELIEVE THE MODELS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
OVER-DOING THE LOW-LEVEL DEW POINTS...THUS GENERATING
HIGHER CAPE VALUES. ACTUALLY THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...
ALBEIT SLIM...WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER S WA CASCADES.

EXPECT A THINNER MARINE LAYER TODAY. THE 06Z NAM DOES NOT SHOW MARINE
STRATUS REACHING KPDX...ALTHOUGH THE HI-RES ARC DOES INDICATE STRATUS
GETTING TO NEAR MULTNOMAH FALLS BY 15Z. HI-RES MODEL ALSO SUGGESTING
THE BEACHES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY. MAY BE A SHORT PERIOD OF SCATTERED
SKY CONDITIONS LATE IN THE DAY FROM ABOUT KONP NORTHWARD. MODEL 850
MB TEMPS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15C TODAY IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...
UP ABOUT 1 DEG FROM WED. THIS SHOULD PUT THE INLAND VALLEYS IN THE
LOWER 80S. WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE FRI WITH A SLIGHTLY WARMER START.
THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN A BIT LATE FRI AS AN UPPER LOW OVER
NRN BRITISH COLUMBIA SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH.

LITTLE CHANGE SAT WITH 500 MB HIGH PRES REMAINING OVER THE AREA. A
SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION IN THE RIDGE SAT AFTERNOON DUE TO A DEVELOPING
LOW MODELS SHOW NEAR 34N 138W SAT AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO INDUCES
SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE SWLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE REGION. WILL LEAVE
THE SLIGHT THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES SAT
AFTERNOON. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SAT NIGHT WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARING 130W BY EARLY SUN. AS THIS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INLAND...INCREASING CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN BY LATE SUN
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIDES ONSHORE AND
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES
SOUTH OF AROUND MT HOOD. AS THIS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG
A GENERALLY SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST PATH ACROSS THE REGION AND
THEN EAST OF THE CASCADES...EXPECT CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER
WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND MIDWEEK. WHILE SOME MODEST
DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN EVOLUTION BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION AND TIMING OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REMARKABLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE SHOWERY PATTERN ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR INLAND WITH IFR STRATUS ALONG THE COLUMBIA
RIVER. EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO THIN AND LIFT THROUGH 18Z. DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS INLAND VFR...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES BETWEEN 20-04Z.
MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A MIXTURE OF
IFR/MVFR CIGS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...IFR STRATUS AROUND 600 FT WILL CONTINUE TO
BURN OFF THROUGH 17Z. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRI. /64

&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL. HIGH PRES REMAINS LOCKED OVER
THE NE PAC...WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENTS. SEAS CONTINUE AS A MIX OF W
AND SW SWELL TRAINS...BUT OVERALL SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 5 TO 6 FT
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 281626 RRA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
926 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY. EXPECT A LITTLE MORE WARMING
TODAY...AND THEN INLAND DAYTIME TEMPERATURE SHOULD PEAK FRIDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN SATURDAY. THE HIGHER CASCADES WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIM THREAT OF LATE-DAY THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEXT UPPER LOW SWINGS CLOSER TO THE OREGON COAST
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A LITTLE MORE COOLING BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF
CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS. A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PLENTY OF MARINE STRATUS AT THE
COAST THIS MORNING. A WEAK INLAND PUSH BROUGHT A THIN STRATUS LAYER
INTO THE COASTAL GAPS AND UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA. CLOUDS FILLED IN THE
I-5 CORRIDOR IN SW WASH AND REACHED THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO
AREA. THE REST OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY STAYED CLOUD FREE. EXPECT THE
INLAND STRATUS TO BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TODAY...LIKELY BY AROUND
18Z. THEN ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPS ARE
FCST TO REACH 14 TO 15 C WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HIGHS INTO
THE LOW 80S FOR THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. THE COAST WILL STAY MUCH
COOLER WITH CLOUDS HANGING ON FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND A NW BREEZE OFF
OF THE OCEAN.

...PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED 149 AM THU MAY 28...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL IDAHO...AND A SECOND
LOW NEAR 55N 131W. A 500 MB RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS BETWEEN 125W AND 130W.
WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWS A DRY SLOT SLIDING SOUTH OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND
AND THE WA COAST. ON THE SMALLER SCALE...STRATUS HAS ALREADY REACHED
KKLS AT 08Z. THE 975 MB RH FORECAST FROM THE NAM VALID 09Z WAS A
LITTLE BEHIND...SHOWING THE 90 PCT OR GREATER VALUES A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST. MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE HIGHER CASCADES. THE UPPER LOW
THAT WAS CENTERED NEAR THE OREGON...WASHINGTON...IDAHO TRIPLE-POINT
00Z THU WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...MODEL
SOUNDINGS FOR A POINT NEAR SANTIAM PASS...ESPECIALLY THE
NAM...MAINTAIN SOME DEGREE OF INSTABILITY FROM LATE-AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING TODAY AND FRI. BELIEVE THE MODELS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
OVER-DOING THE LOW-LEVEL DEW POINTS...THUS GENERATING
HIGHER CAPE VALUES. ACTUALLY THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...
ALBEIT SLIM...WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER S WA CASCADES.

EXPECT A THINNER MARINE LAYER TODAY. THE 06Z NAM DOES NOT SHOW MARINE
STRATUS REACHING KPDX...ALTHOUGH THE HI-RES ARC DOES INDICATE STRATUS
GETTING TO NEAR MULTNOMAH FALLS BY 15Z. HI-RES MODEL ALSO SUGGESTING
THE BEACHES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY. MAY BE A SHORT PERIOD OF SCATTERED
SKY CONDITIONS LATE IN THE DAY FROM ABOUT KONP NORTHWARD. MODEL 850
MB TEMPS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15C TODAY IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...
UP ABOUT 1 DEG FROM WED. THIS SHOULD PUT THE INLAND VALLEYS IN THE
LOWER 80S. WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE FRI WITH A SLIGHTLY WARMER START.
THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN A BIT LATE FRI AS AN UPPER LOW OVER
NRN BRITISH COLUMBIA SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH.

LITTLE CHANGE SAT WITH 500 MB HIGH PRES REMAINING OVER THE AREA. A
SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION IN THE RIDGE SAT AFTERNOON DUE TO A DEVELOPING
LOW MODELS SHOW NEAR 34N 138W SAT AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO INDUCES
SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE SWLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE REGION. WILL LEAVE
THE SLIGHT THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES SAT
AFTERNOON. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SAT NIGHT WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARING 130W BY EARLY SUN. AS THIS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INLAND...INCREASING CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN BY LATE SUN
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIDES ONSHORE AND
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES
SOUTH OF AROUND MT HOOD. AS THIS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG
A GENERALLY SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST PATH ACROSS THE REGION AND
THEN EAST OF THE CASCADES...EXPECT CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER
WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND MIDWEEK. WHILE SOME MODEST
DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN EVOLUTION BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION AND TIMING OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REMARKABLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE SHOWERY PATTERN ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR INLAND WITH IFR STRATUS ALONG THE COLUMBIA
RIVER. EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO THIN AND LIFT THROUGH 18Z. DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS INLAND VFR...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES BETWEEN 20-04Z.
MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A MIXTURE OF
IFR/MVFR CIGS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...IFR STRATUS AROUND 600 FT WILL CONTINUE TO
BURN OFF THROUGH 17Z. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRI. /64

&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL. HIGH PRES REMAINS LOCKED OVER
THE NE PAC...WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENTS. SEAS CONTINUE AS A MIX OF W
AND SW SWELL TRAINS...BUT OVERALL SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 5 TO 6 FT
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 281626 RRA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
926 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY. EXPECT A LITTLE MORE WARMING
TODAY...AND THEN INLAND DAYTIME TEMPERATURE SHOULD PEAK FRIDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN SATURDAY. THE HIGHER CASCADES WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIM THREAT OF LATE-DAY THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEXT UPPER LOW SWINGS CLOSER TO THE OREGON COAST
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A LITTLE MORE COOLING BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF
CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS. A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PLENTY OF MARINE STRATUS AT THE
COAST THIS MORNING. A WEAK INLAND PUSH BROUGHT A THIN STRATUS LAYER
INTO THE COASTAL GAPS AND UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA. CLOUDS FILLED IN THE
I-5 CORRIDOR IN SW WASH AND REACHED THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO
AREA. THE REST OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY STAYED CLOUD FREE. EXPECT THE
INLAND STRATUS TO BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TODAY...LIKELY BY AROUND
18Z. THEN ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPS ARE
FCST TO REACH 14 TO 15 C WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HIGHS INTO
THE LOW 80S FOR THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. THE COAST WILL STAY MUCH
COOLER WITH CLOUDS HANGING ON FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND A NW BREEZE OFF
OF THE OCEAN.

...PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED 149 AM THU MAY 28...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL IDAHO...AND A SECOND
LOW NEAR 55N 131W. A 500 MB RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS BETWEEN 125W AND 130W.
WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWS A DRY SLOT SLIDING SOUTH OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND
AND THE WA COAST. ON THE SMALLER SCALE...STRATUS HAS ALREADY REACHED
KKLS AT 08Z. THE 975 MB RH FORECAST FROM THE NAM VALID 09Z WAS A
LITTLE BEHIND...SHOWING THE 90 PCT OR GREATER VALUES A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST. MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE HIGHER CASCADES. THE UPPER LOW
THAT WAS CENTERED NEAR THE OREGON...WASHINGTON...IDAHO TRIPLE-POINT
00Z THU WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...MODEL
SOUNDINGS FOR A POINT NEAR SANTIAM PASS...ESPECIALLY THE
NAM...MAINTAIN SOME DEGREE OF INSTABILITY FROM LATE-AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING TODAY AND FRI. BELIEVE THE MODELS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
OVER-DOING THE LOW-LEVEL DEW POINTS...THUS GENERATING
HIGHER CAPE VALUES. ACTUALLY THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...
ALBEIT SLIM...WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER S WA CASCADES.

EXPECT A THINNER MARINE LAYER TODAY. THE 06Z NAM DOES NOT SHOW MARINE
STRATUS REACHING KPDX...ALTHOUGH THE HI-RES ARC DOES INDICATE STRATUS
GETTING TO NEAR MULTNOMAH FALLS BY 15Z. HI-RES MODEL ALSO SUGGESTING
THE BEACHES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY. MAY BE A SHORT PERIOD OF SCATTERED
SKY CONDITIONS LATE IN THE DAY FROM ABOUT KONP NORTHWARD. MODEL 850
MB TEMPS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15C TODAY IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...
UP ABOUT 1 DEG FROM WED. THIS SHOULD PUT THE INLAND VALLEYS IN THE
LOWER 80S. WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE FRI WITH A SLIGHTLY WARMER START.
THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN A BIT LATE FRI AS AN UPPER LOW OVER
NRN BRITISH COLUMBIA SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH.

LITTLE CHANGE SAT WITH 500 MB HIGH PRES REMAINING OVER THE AREA. A
SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION IN THE RIDGE SAT AFTERNOON DUE TO A DEVELOPING
LOW MODELS SHOW NEAR 34N 138W SAT AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO INDUCES
SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE SWLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE REGION. WILL LEAVE
THE SLIGHT THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES SAT
AFTERNOON. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SAT NIGHT WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARING 130W BY EARLY SUN. AS THIS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INLAND...INCREASING CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN BY LATE SUN
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIDES ONSHORE AND
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES
SOUTH OF AROUND MT HOOD. AS THIS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG
A GENERALLY SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST PATH ACROSS THE REGION AND
THEN EAST OF THE CASCADES...EXPECT CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER
WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND MIDWEEK. WHILE SOME MODEST
DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN EVOLUTION BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION AND TIMING OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REMARKABLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE SHOWERY PATTERN ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR INLAND WITH IFR STRATUS ALONG THE COLUMBIA
RIVER. EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO THIN AND LIFT THROUGH 18Z. DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS INLAND VFR...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES BETWEEN 20-04Z.
MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A MIXTURE OF
IFR/MVFR CIGS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...IFR STRATUS AROUND 600 FT WILL CONTINUE TO
BURN OFF THROUGH 17Z. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRI. /64

&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL. HIGH PRES REMAINS LOCKED OVER
THE NE PAC...WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENTS. SEAS CONTINUE AS A MIX OF W
AND SW SWELL TRAINS...BUT OVERALL SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 5 TO 6 FT
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 281601 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINTAINING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
WASHINGTON THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY DRY
WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
BRINGING INCREASING SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MARINE STRATUS THAT SPREAD INTO ALL BUT THE CENTRAL
PUGET SOUND THIS MORNING HAS BEGUN TO ERODE IN THE LAST HOUR. EXPECT
LOW CLOUDS TO RETREAT TO THE COAST BY LATE MORNING. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CANNOT QUITE RULE
OUT THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE RISK IS
DECIDEDLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY.

A CLOSED LOW WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH AND EAST INTO CENTRAL BRITISH
COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HELP BOOST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH FRI...LEADING TO
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES AND SUBTLY
COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL...HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY SEE SIMILAR DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND A
DIMINISHED THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES.

.LONG TERM...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AHEAD OF A
NEGATIVE-TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BOOSTING HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP PULL MOISTURE UP FROM THE
SOUTH AND AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE SOUTH...SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS
PATTERN IS A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE TO THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY AS
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVES INLAND MONDAY. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL
LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK BRINGING DRIER
CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION...THE MORNING CLOUDS ARE SHALLOWER AND DID NOT COME IN AS
FAR THIS MORNING AND THEY WILL PULL BACK TO THE COAST QUICKLY TODAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT EVEN THE OCEAN BEACHES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR
AWHILE LATER TODAY.   THE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES WILL
DESTABILIZE  AGAIN WITH A SCATTERED BUILDUPS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COASTAL MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL PUSH
BACK INLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH PROBABLY ABOUT THE SAME COVERAGE
FRIDAY MORNING.

KSEA...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING NLY BREEZE. FOR
FRIDAY MORNING...THE MARINE LAYER WILL PROBABLY AGAIN BE TOO SHALLOW
TO MAKE IT TO SEA TAC.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG 140W WITH LOWER PRESSURE
INLAND WILL GIVE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
STRONGEST BREEZE WILL BE EACH EVENING IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA...AND THE FORECAST FOR NOW IS FOR A WLY 15-20 KT WIND WITH 2 OR
3 FOOT WAVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND ERN
STRAIT. AREAS OF FOG WILL BURN OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND SPREAD BACK INLAND AGAIN BY FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&


.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KSEW 281601 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINTAINING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
WASHINGTON THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY DRY
WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
BRINGING INCREASING SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MARINE STRATUS THAT SPREAD INTO ALL BUT THE CENTRAL
PUGET SOUND THIS MORNING HAS BEGUN TO ERODE IN THE LAST HOUR. EXPECT
LOW CLOUDS TO RETREAT TO THE COAST BY LATE MORNING. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CANNOT QUITE RULE
OUT THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE RISK IS
DECIDEDLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY.

A CLOSED LOW WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH AND EAST INTO CENTRAL BRITISH
COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HELP BOOST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH FRI...LEADING TO
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES AND SUBTLY
COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL...HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY SEE SIMILAR DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND A
DIMINISHED THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES.

.LONG TERM...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AHEAD OF A
NEGATIVE-TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BOOSTING HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP PULL MOISTURE UP FROM THE
SOUTH AND AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE SOUTH...SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS
PATTERN IS A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE TO THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY AS
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVES INLAND MONDAY. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL
LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK BRINGING DRIER
CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION...THE MORNING CLOUDS ARE SHALLOWER AND DID NOT COME IN AS
FAR THIS MORNING AND THEY WILL PULL BACK TO THE COAST QUICKLY TODAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT EVEN THE OCEAN BEACHES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR
AWHILE LATER TODAY.   THE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES WILL
DESTABILIZE  AGAIN WITH A SCATTERED BUILDUPS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COASTAL MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL PUSH
BACK INLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH PROBABLY ABOUT THE SAME COVERAGE
FRIDAY MORNING.

KSEA...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING NLY BREEZE. FOR
FRIDAY MORNING...THE MARINE LAYER WILL PROBABLY AGAIN BE TOO SHALLOW
TO MAKE IT TO SEA TAC.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG 140W WITH LOWER PRESSURE
INLAND WILL GIVE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
STRONGEST BREEZE WILL BE EACH EVENING IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA...AND THE FORECAST FOR NOW IS FOR A WLY 15-20 KT WIND WITH 2 OR
3 FOOT WAVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND ERN
STRAIT. AREAS OF FOG WILL BURN OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND SPREAD BACK INLAND AGAIN BY FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&


.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KOTX 281204
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
504 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue today
and Friday. However they will be more focused around the
mountains. Expect a warming trend into the weekend, with highs in
the 80s, with a lingering threat of mainly mountain showers and
thunderstorms. By next Monday and Tuesday the next best chance of
showers and thunderstorms arrives, with the potential for some
stronger storms and the return of cooler temperatures.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Friday: Another upper level low pressure system will
drop south over BC. This area of low pressure will not push much
further south than central BC though as ridging across California
and Oregon keeps it north of the region. Dew point temperatures
will be in the mid 40s to low 50s today. This will result in
uncapped or weakly capped CAPEs of around 200-500 J/KG across the
mountains. This will be enough instability for more isolated to
scattered shower activity with isolated thunderstorms also
possible. The NAM model has had a tendency this season to be too
unstable, so I am leaning toward the GFS depiction of our
potential instability today. This solution gives very little
instability over the basin. This makes sense as showers and
thunderstorm coverage was lacking yesterday with our previous low
pressure system making its exit. Heights aloft will be a bit
higher today compared to the last few days with that low moving
into the Rockies. This should result in little to no convection
over the basin this afternoon. A weak disturbance will push across
the region tonight. This will keep showers going over the northern
mountains. Mid level instability also looks fairly weak, so
thunderstorms are not expected to continue into the overnight
hours.

The better instability on Friday will reside over the northern
mountains. This should result in less of a chance for showers and
thunderstorms over the NE Blue Mtns over to the Central Panhandle
Mtns. However, we will see showers increasing through the day on
Friday over the northern mountains with a chance for thunderstorms
again in the afternoon. There will be a bit more shear on Friday,
which may lead to a few stronger cells compared to what we see
this afternoon. Any severe thunderstorms would be unlikely, but
small hail, heavy downpours and gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph
will be possible. Best potential for some stronger storms would
be closer to the Canadian border.

Temperatures will continue their upward trend with highs over much
of the region in the 80s. Some of the warmer locations across the
region such as Omak, Leavenworth, Wenatchee, Moses Lake and
Lewiston will be in the upper 80s and even approach the 90 degree
mark on Friday. /SVH

Friday night through Sunday...Not a big change in model guidance
through Sunday. To recap another closed low currently moving into
northern B.C. will drop south into central B.C. Then take a turn
to the east and weaken somewhat Friday night through Sunday. This
will result in zonal flow through the weekend. Drier air will
finally move into the region. This will result in a warming and
drying trend through late Sunday afternoon. Some late day showers
and thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday along the Montana
border due to some lingering moisture...otherwise expect dry
conditions. Temperatures will be mainly in the 80s and 90s both
days. Temperatures were cooled by a couple of degrees Sunday with
850 temps cooling a few degrees C. Late Sunday afternoon moisture
moving up from the south may result in a chance for
showers/thunderstorms across the Blues, the Camas Prairie, and up
into southern Shoshone county. Timing of the moisture will be
everything and we could easily just see some afternoon cloud
buildups.

Sunday through Thursday...Guidance has been showing a closed low,
currently out near 40n/150w finally make it`s way to the OR/CAL
coast by Sunday for several days. Southerly flow ahead of said low
will pump moisture up from the south helping to destabilize the
atmosphere. The models are similar up through Sunday evening, then
start showing major differences in timing the front as it moves
north through the region. As such confidence in this portion of
the forecast is less than average. This pattern is very good for
strong convection across the Pac NW. The challenge is all in the
timing.

At this time we are leaning strongly towards the GFS which brings
a cold front through the region on Monday. Mid and upper level
instability, DivQ and High Level Totals will increase through
Sunday evening and forcing due to a vigorous shortwave will
provide ample lift to tap into this instability and result in
nocturnal thunderstorms. Wind shear is between 40-50kts through
about 15z Monday morning. Ample moisture will result in locally
heavy rain, small to moderate sized hail, and gusty outflow winds.
For now the best chance for thunderstorms Sunday night will be
roughly east of a line from about the Tri-Cities to Mullan Pass.

There will likely be a break Monday morning, then surface based
capes increase to over 1000 j/kg according to the GFS. The front
will act as a focusing point for an active thunderstorm day
Monday. But there are some problems as well. For one the shear
drops down to around 20kts by mid-day Monday that should keep hail
from gaining any size. And ample cloud cover may inhibit deep
convection, but the front will likely overcome the cloud cover. So
an active day, likely not severe, but with PWAT`s over .75
localized very heavy rain is likely. Again timing will be
everything. There will also be a significant drop in temperatures
with highs dropping back to near seasonal norms. We expect model
guidance will tighten up over the next few days, and at this time
we feel this is the best solution.

Tuesday through Thursday afternoon and evening showers and
possible thunderstorms will linger across the region and were kept
in the forecast, but confidence in the forecast through this
period is even lower than for Monday. We do expect temperatures to
remain near or just on the warm side of normal through the end of
the week. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: A weak impulse of mid level energy is
producing light showers over the Central Panhandle Mtns this
morning. Higher heights will stabilize the atmosphere overall behind
this batch of showers. With that said, the boundary layer remains
moist and models show a weak cap over the mountains, so I do expect
increasing showers with isolated thunderstorms over the higher
terrain this afternoon; however, this convection is not expected to
impact the TAF locations. There will be a weak impulse that moves
into the region off of the Pacific tonight should keep showers going
over the northern mtns overnight. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  57  82  59  82  59 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  78  54  82  57  82  56 /  20  20  10  20  20  10
Pullman        75  52  82  57  80  56 /  10  10  10  20  20  10
Lewiston       83  58  88  64  87  62 /  10  10  10  20  20  20
Colville       82  54  83  55  85  53 /  30  40  40  30  20  20
Sandpoint      78  51  81  52  80  52 /  30  40  30  20  20  20
Kellogg        76  49  81  54  80  53 /  40  40  20  30  30  20
Moses Lake     86  58  90  59  91  58 /  10  10   0  10  10  10
Wenatchee      86  64  89  63  89  62 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           86  56  87  54  89  53 /  10  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 281204
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
504 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue today
and Friday. However they will be more focused around the
mountains. Expect a warming trend into the weekend, with highs in
the 80s, with a lingering threat of mainly mountain showers and
thunderstorms. By next Monday and Tuesday the next best chance of
showers and thunderstorms arrives, with the potential for some
stronger storms and the return of cooler temperatures.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Friday: Another upper level low pressure system will
drop south over BC. This area of low pressure will not push much
further south than central BC though as ridging across California
and Oregon keeps it north of the region. Dew point temperatures
will be in the mid 40s to low 50s today. This will result in
uncapped or weakly capped CAPEs of around 200-500 J/KG across the
mountains. This will be enough instability for more isolated to
scattered shower activity with isolated thunderstorms also
possible. The NAM model has had a tendency this season to be too
unstable, so I am leaning toward the GFS depiction of our
potential instability today. This solution gives very little
instability over the basin. This makes sense as showers and
thunderstorm coverage was lacking yesterday with our previous low
pressure system making its exit. Heights aloft will be a bit
higher today compared to the last few days with that low moving
into the Rockies. This should result in little to no convection
over the basin this afternoon. A weak disturbance will push across
the region tonight. This will keep showers going over the northern
mountains. Mid level instability also looks fairly weak, so
thunderstorms are not expected to continue into the overnight
hours.

The better instability on Friday will reside over the northern
mountains. This should result in less of a chance for showers and
thunderstorms over the NE Blue Mtns over to the Central Panhandle
Mtns. However, we will see showers increasing through the day on
Friday over the northern mountains with a chance for thunderstorms
again in the afternoon. There will be a bit more shear on Friday,
which may lead to a few stronger cells compared to what we see
this afternoon. Any severe thunderstorms would be unlikely, but
small hail, heavy downpours and gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph
will be possible. Best potential for some stronger storms would
be closer to the Canadian border.

Temperatures will continue their upward trend with highs over much
of the region in the 80s. Some of the warmer locations across the
region such as Omak, Leavenworth, Wenatchee, Moses Lake and
Lewiston will be in the upper 80s and even approach the 90 degree
mark on Friday. /SVH

Friday night through Sunday...Not a big change in model guidance
through Sunday. To recap another closed low currently moving into
northern B.C. will drop south into central B.C. Then take a turn
to the east and weaken somewhat Friday night through Sunday. This
will result in zonal flow through the weekend. Drier air will
finally move into the region. This will result in a warming and
drying trend through late Sunday afternoon. Some late day showers
and thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday along the Montana
border due to some lingering moisture...otherwise expect dry
conditions. Temperatures will be mainly in the 80s and 90s both
days. Temperatures were cooled by a couple of degrees Sunday with
850 temps cooling a few degrees C. Late Sunday afternoon moisture
moving up from the south may result in a chance for
showers/thunderstorms across the Blues, the Camas Prairie, and up
into southern Shoshone county. Timing of the moisture will be
everything and we could easily just see some afternoon cloud
buildups.

Sunday through Thursday...Guidance has been showing a closed low,
currently out near 40n/150w finally make it`s way to the OR/CAL
coast by Sunday for several days. Southerly flow ahead of said low
will pump moisture up from the south helping to destabilize the
atmosphere. The models are similar up through Sunday evening, then
start showing major differences in timing the front as it moves
north through the region. As such confidence in this portion of
the forecast is less than average. This pattern is very good for
strong convection across the Pac NW. The challenge is all in the
timing.

At this time we are leaning strongly towards the GFS which brings
a cold front through the region on Monday. Mid and upper level
instability, DivQ and High Level Totals will increase through
Sunday evening and forcing due to a vigorous shortwave will
provide ample lift to tap into this instability and result in
nocturnal thunderstorms. Wind shear is between 40-50kts through
about 15z Monday morning. Ample moisture will result in locally
heavy rain, small to moderate sized hail, and gusty outflow winds.
For now the best chance for thunderstorms Sunday night will be
roughly east of a line from about the Tri-Cities to Mullan Pass.

There will likely be a break Monday morning, then surface based
capes increase to over 1000 j/kg according to the GFS. The front
will act as a focusing point for an active thunderstorm day
Monday. But there are some problems as well. For one the shear
drops down to around 20kts by mid-day Monday that should keep hail
from gaining any size. And ample cloud cover may inhibit deep
convection, but the front will likely overcome the cloud cover. So
an active day, likely not severe, but with PWAT`s over .75
localized very heavy rain is likely. Again timing will be
everything. There will also be a significant drop in temperatures
with highs dropping back to near seasonal norms. We expect model
guidance will tighten up over the next few days, and at this time
we feel this is the best solution.

Tuesday through Thursday afternoon and evening showers and
possible thunderstorms will linger across the region and were kept
in the forecast, but confidence in the forecast through this
period is even lower than for Monday. We do expect temperatures to
remain near or just on the warm side of normal through the end of
the week. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: A weak impulse of mid level energy is
producing light showers over the Central Panhandle Mtns this
morning. Higher heights will stabilize the atmosphere overall behind
this batch of showers. With that said, the boundary layer remains
moist and models show a weak cap over the mountains, so I do expect
increasing showers with isolated thunderstorms over the higher
terrain this afternoon; however, this convection is not expected to
impact the TAF locations. There will be a weak impulse that moves
into the region off of the Pacific tonight should keep showers going
over the northern mtns overnight. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  57  82  59  82  59 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  78  54  82  57  82  56 /  20  20  10  20  20  10
Pullman        75  52  82  57  80  56 /  10  10  10  20  20  10
Lewiston       83  58  88  64  87  62 /  10  10  10  20  20  20
Colville       82  54  83  55  85  53 /  30  40  40  30  20  20
Sandpoint      78  51  81  52  80  52 /  30  40  30  20  20  20
Kellogg        76  49  81  54  80  53 /  40  40  20  30  30  20
Moses Lake     86  58  90  59  91  58 /  10  10   0  10  10  10
Wenatchee      86  64  89  63  89  62 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           86  56  87  54  89  53 /  10  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 281204
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
504 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue today
and Friday. However they will be more focused around the
mountains. Expect a warming trend into the weekend, with highs in
the 80s, with a lingering threat of mainly mountain showers and
thunderstorms. By next Monday and Tuesday the next best chance of
showers and thunderstorms arrives, with the potential for some
stronger storms and the return of cooler temperatures.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Friday: Another upper level low pressure system will
drop south over BC. This area of low pressure will not push much
further south than central BC though as ridging across California
and Oregon keeps it north of the region. Dew point temperatures
will be in the mid 40s to low 50s today. This will result in
uncapped or weakly capped CAPEs of around 200-500 J/KG across the
mountains. This will be enough instability for more isolated to
scattered shower activity with isolated thunderstorms also
possible. The NAM model has had a tendency this season to be too
unstable, so I am leaning toward the GFS depiction of our
potential instability today. This solution gives very little
instability over the basin. This makes sense as showers and
thunderstorm coverage was lacking yesterday with our previous low
pressure system making its exit. Heights aloft will be a bit
higher today compared to the last few days with that low moving
into the Rockies. This should result in little to no convection
over the basin this afternoon. A weak disturbance will push across
the region tonight. This will keep showers going over the northern
mountains. Mid level instability also looks fairly weak, so
thunderstorms are not expected to continue into the overnight
hours.

The better instability on Friday will reside over the northern
mountains. This should result in less of a chance for showers and
thunderstorms over the NE Blue Mtns over to the Central Panhandle
Mtns. However, we will see showers increasing through the day on
Friday over the northern mountains with a chance for thunderstorms
again in the afternoon. There will be a bit more shear on Friday,
which may lead to a few stronger cells compared to what we see
this afternoon. Any severe thunderstorms would be unlikely, but
small hail, heavy downpours and gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph
will be possible. Best potential for some stronger storms would
be closer to the Canadian border.

Temperatures will continue their upward trend with highs over much
of the region in the 80s. Some of the warmer locations across the
region such as Omak, Leavenworth, Wenatchee, Moses Lake and
Lewiston will be in the upper 80s and even approach the 90 degree
mark on Friday. /SVH

Friday night through Sunday...Not a big change in model guidance
through Sunday. To recap another closed low currently moving into
northern B.C. will drop south into central B.C. Then take a turn
to the east and weaken somewhat Friday night through Sunday. This
will result in zonal flow through the weekend. Drier air will
finally move into the region. This will result in a warming and
drying trend through late Sunday afternoon. Some late day showers
and thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday along the Montana
border due to some lingering moisture...otherwise expect dry
conditions. Temperatures will be mainly in the 80s and 90s both
days. Temperatures were cooled by a couple of degrees Sunday with
850 temps cooling a few degrees C. Late Sunday afternoon moisture
moving up from the south may result in a chance for
showers/thunderstorms across the Blues, the Camas Prairie, and up
into southern Shoshone county. Timing of the moisture will be
everything and we could easily just see some afternoon cloud
buildups.

Sunday through Thursday...Guidance has been showing a closed low,
currently out near 40n/150w finally make it`s way to the OR/CAL
coast by Sunday for several days. Southerly flow ahead of said low
will pump moisture up from the south helping to destabilize the
atmosphere. The models are similar up through Sunday evening, then
start showing major differences in timing the front as it moves
north through the region. As such confidence in this portion of
the forecast is less than average. This pattern is very good for
strong convection across the Pac NW. The challenge is all in the
timing.

At this time we are leaning strongly towards the GFS which brings
a cold front through the region on Monday. Mid and upper level
instability, DivQ and High Level Totals will increase through
Sunday evening and forcing due to a vigorous shortwave will
provide ample lift to tap into this instability and result in
nocturnal thunderstorms. Wind shear is between 40-50kts through
about 15z Monday morning. Ample moisture will result in locally
heavy rain, small to moderate sized hail, and gusty outflow winds.
For now the best chance for thunderstorms Sunday night will be
roughly east of a line from about the Tri-Cities to Mullan Pass.

There will likely be a break Monday morning, then surface based
capes increase to over 1000 j/kg according to the GFS. The front
will act as a focusing point for an active thunderstorm day
Monday. But there are some problems as well. For one the shear
drops down to around 20kts by mid-day Monday that should keep hail
from gaining any size. And ample cloud cover may inhibit deep
convection, but the front will likely overcome the cloud cover. So
an active day, likely not severe, but with PWAT`s over .75
localized very heavy rain is likely. Again timing will be
everything. There will also be a significant drop in temperatures
with highs dropping back to near seasonal norms. We expect model
guidance will tighten up over the next few days, and at this time
we feel this is the best solution.

Tuesday through Thursday afternoon and evening showers and
possible thunderstorms will linger across the region and were kept
in the forecast, but confidence in the forecast through this
period is even lower than for Monday. We do expect temperatures to
remain near or just on the warm side of normal through the end of
the week. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: A weak impulse of mid level energy is
producing light showers over the Central Panhandle Mtns this
morning. Higher heights will stabilize the atmosphere overall behind
this batch of showers. With that said, the boundary layer remains
moist and models show a weak cap over the mountains, so I do expect
increasing showers with isolated thunderstorms over the higher
terrain this afternoon; however, this convection is not expected to
impact the TAF locations. There will be a weak impulse that moves
into the region off of the Pacific tonight should keep showers going
over the northern mtns overnight. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  57  82  59  82  59 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  78  54  82  57  82  56 /  20  20  10  20  20  10
Pullman        75  52  82  57  80  56 /  10  10  10  20  20  10
Lewiston       83  58  88  64  87  62 /  10  10  10  20  20  20
Colville       82  54  83  55  85  53 /  30  40  40  30  20  20
Sandpoint      78  51  81  52  80  52 /  30  40  30  20  20  20
Kellogg        76  49  81  54  80  53 /  40  40  20  30  30  20
Moses Lake     86  58  90  59  91  58 /  10  10   0  10  10  10
Wenatchee      86  64  89  63  89  62 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           86  56  87  54  89  53 /  10  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 281204
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
504 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue today
and Friday. However they will be more focused around the
mountains. Expect a warming trend into the weekend, with highs in
the 80s, with a lingering threat of mainly mountain showers and
thunderstorms. By next Monday and Tuesday the next best chance of
showers and thunderstorms arrives, with the potential for some
stronger storms and the return of cooler temperatures.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Friday: Another upper level low pressure system will
drop south over BC. This area of low pressure will not push much
further south than central BC though as ridging across California
and Oregon keeps it north of the region. Dew point temperatures
will be in the mid 40s to low 50s today. This will result in
uncapped or weakly capped CAPEs of around 200-500 J/KG across the
mountains. This will be enough instability for more isolated to
scattered shower activity with isolated thunderstorms also
possible. The NAM model has had a tendency this season to be too
unstable, so I am leaning toward the GFS depiction of our
potential instability today. This solution gives very little
instability over the basin. This makes sense as showers and
thunderstorm coverage was lacking yesterday with our previous low
pressure system making its exit. Heights aloft will be a bit
higher today compared to the last few days with that low moving
into the Rockies. This should result in little to no convection
over the basin this afternoon. A weak disturbance will push across
the region tonight. This will keep showers going over the northern
mountains. Mid level instability also looks fairly weak, so
thunderstorms are not expected to continue into the overnight
hours.

The better instability on Friday will reside over the northern
mountains. This should result in less of a chance for showers and
thunderstorms over the NE Blue Mtns over to the Central Panhandle
Mtns. However, we will see showers increasing through the day on
Friday over the northern mountains with a chance for thunderstorms
again in the afternoon. There will be a bit more shear on Friday,
which may lead to a few stronger cells compared to what we see
this afternoon. Any severe thunderstorms would be unlikely, but
small hail, heavy downpours and gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph
will be possible. Best potential for some stronger storms would
be closer to the Canadian border.

Temperatures will continue their upward trend with highs over much
of the region in the 80s. Some of the warmer locations across the
region such as Omak, Leavenworth, Wenatchee, Moses Lake and
Lewiston will be in the upper 80s and even approach the 90 degree
mark on Friday. /SVH

Friday night through Sunday...Not a big change in model guidance
through Sunday. To recap another closed low currently moving into
northern B.C. will drop south into central B.C. Then take a turn
to the east and weaken somewhat Friday night through Sunday. This
will result in zonal flow through the weekend. Drier air will
finally move into the region. This will result in a warming and
drying trend through late Sunday afternoon. Some late day showers
and thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday along the Montana
border due to some lingering moisture...otherwise expect dry
conditions. Temperatures will be mainly in the 80s and 90s both
days. Temperatures were cooled by a couple of degrees Sunday with
850 temps cooling a few degrees C. Late Sunday afternoon moisture
moving up from the south may result in a chance for
showers/thunderstorms across the Blues, the Camas Prairie, and up
into southern Shoshone county. Timing of the moisture will be
everything and we could easily just see some afternoon cloud
buildups.

Sunday through Thursday...Guidance has been showing a closed low,
currently out near 40n/150w finally make it`s way to the OR/CAL
coast by Sunday for several days. Southerly flow ahead of said low
will pump moisture up from the south helping to destabilize the
atmosphere. The models are similar up through Sunday evening, then
start showing major differences in timing the front as it moves
north through the region. As such confidence in this portion of
the forecast is less than average. This pattern is very good for
strong convection across the Pac NW. The challenge is all in the
timing.

At this time we are leaning strongly towards the GFS which brings
a cold front through the region on Monday. Mid and upper level
instability, DivQ and High Level Totals will increase through
Sunday evening and forcing due to a vigorous shortwave will
provide ample lift to tap into this instability and result in
nocturnal thunderstorms. Wind shear is between 40-50kts through
about 15z Monday morning. Ample moisture will result in locally
heavy rain, small to moderate sized hail, and gusty outflow winds.
For now the best chance for thunderstorms Sunday night will be
roughly east of a line from about the Tri-Cities to Mullan Pass.

There will likely be a break Monday morning, then surface based
capes increase to over 1000 j/kg according to the GFS. The front
will act as a focusing point for an active thunderstorm day
Monday. But there are some problems as well. For one the shear
drops down to around 20kts by mid-day Monday that should keep hail
from gaining any size. And ample cloud cover may inhibit deep
convection, but the front will likely overcome the cloud cover. So
an active day, likely not severe, but with PWAT`s over .75
localized very heavy rain is likely. Again timing will be
everything. There will also be a significant drop in temperatures
with highs dropping back to near seasonal norms. We expect model
guidance will tighten up over the next few days, and at this time
we feel this is the best solution.

Tuesday through Thursday afternoon and evening showers and
possible thunderstorms will linger across the region and were kept
in the forecast, but confidence in the forecast through this
period is even lower than for Monday. We do expect temperatures to
remain near or just on the warm side of normal through the end of
the week. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: A weak impulse of mid level energy is
producing light showers over the Central Panhandle Mtns this
morning. Higher heights will stabilize the atmosphere overall behind
this batch of showers. With that said, the boundary layer remains
moist and models show a weak cap over the mountains, so I do expect
increasing showers with isolated thunderstorms over the higher
terrain this afternoon; however, this convection is not expected to
impact the TAF locations. There will be a weak impulse that moves
into the region off of the Pacific tonight should keep showers going
over the northern mtns overnight. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  57  82  59  82  59 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  78  54  82  57  82  56 /  20  20  10  20  20  10
Pullman        75  52  82  57  80  56 /  10  10  10  20  20  10
Lewiston       83  58  88  64  87  62 /  10  10  10  20  20  20
Colville       82  54  83  55  85  53 /  30  40  40  30  20  20
Sandpoint      78  51  81  52  80  52 /  30  40  30  20  20  20
Kellogg        76  49  81  54  80  53 /  40  40  20  30  30  20
Moses Lake     86  58  90  59  91  58 /  10  10   0  10  10  10
Wenatchee      86  64  89  63  89  62 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           86  56  87  54  89  53 /  10  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSEW 281046 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
345 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

CORRECTED TO FIX A COUPLE OF TYPOS.

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  OVER NORTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DRIFT
INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL. THIS
WILL PLACE THE AREA UNDER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SATURDAY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
STRATUS HAS MADE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE FAR SOUTHERN PUGET SOUND
AND ADMIRALTY INLET AREA AT THIS TIME. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO BLANKET MUCH OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE
RETREATING BACK TO THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...SO EXPECT ADDITIONAL WARMING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
DECIDED TO OMIT THE CHANCE OF TSTMS FOR TODAY. THE INGREDIENTS
/MOISTURE...LIFT...AND INSTABILITY/ PLUS THE STEERING FLOW DID NOT
APPEAR AS FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TODAY AS YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THIS
DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE THREAT OF TSTMS IS ZERO...JUST NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO MENTION THEM IN THE FORECAST.

A CUT-OFF LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL BEGIN TO EXERT MORE
INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRI. CONFIDENCE IN THE
CLOUD AND MAX TEMP FORECAST WAS NOT VERY HIGH. THIS WILL BE A
TRICKY FORECAST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SURFACE ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD BE STRONGER THAN WHAT THE MODELS
ADVERTISED...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO COOLER THAN PREDICTED TEMPS ON
FRI. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE A THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES ON FRI.

IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY...SO CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST WAS NOT HIGH. CHOSE TO LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER
SOLUTIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR...UNLESS THE ONSHORE GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING
TIGHTER THAN PREDICTED.

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF
A NEGATIVE-TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THUS...TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO
SATURDAY DUE TO WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER OREGON ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL COOL INTO THE
60S. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE SOUTH...CLOSE ENOUGH TO
KEEP SHOWERS AND CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE 60S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THINGS TO DRY OUT AND THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. SCHNEIDER/05

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL WEAKEN AND
SLIDE EAST TODAY. N FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME WLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE WITH A MARINE LAYER THAT
WILL BURN BACK TO THE COASTLINE MIDDAY.

VERY LOW STRATUS WITH AREAS OF FOG HAS PUSHED EAST THROUGH THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA ONTO WHIDBEY ISLAND. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL SLIDE SE THROUGH ADMIRALTY INLET TO AROUND THE KPAE TERMINAL BY
12Z. IN THE MEAN TIME LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS PUSHED INLAND THROUGH
THE CHEHALIS GAP TO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PUGET SOUND. EXPECT
THIS DECK TO REACH THE KSEA TERMINAL AROUND 12Z. STRATUS BASES ARE
003-005 MSL AND TOPS APPEAR TO BE 1000 FT OR LESS BASED ON ESTIMATES
FROM MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGES EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT ALL
OF THE STRATUS TO BURN BACK TO THE PACIFIC COASTLINE BY 19Z LEAVING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE INTERIOR. THE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES
WILL DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING 21Z-03Z THIS AFTERNOON GIVING
SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE CREST AS THE
STEERING FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NWLY. STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WILL
PUSH BACK INLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND REACH MOST OF THE INLAND
TERMINALS FRIDAY MORNING WITH COVERAGE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THIS
MORNING. ALBRECHT

KSEA...STRATUS WITH BASES 002-003 WILL REACH THE TERMINAL BY 13Z.
THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT VIS WILL LOWER TO 2SM OR LESS AS
THE BASES OF THE INCOMING STRATUS LAYER IS QUITE LOW -FL003 AT KSHN.
STRATUS WILL QUICKLY LIFT AND BURN OFF 18Z-19Z THEN MOVE BACK INLAND
13Z ON FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NWLY 4-7 KT AFTER 19Z THEN
TURN NORTH AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 140W COMBINED WITH LOWER PRES
E OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE FLOW THOUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA WILL
LIKELY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING
IN THE INTERIOR. ALBRECHT

&&


.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TIL 6 AM THIS MORNING FOR THE
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 281046 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
345 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

CORRECTED TO FIX A COUPLE OF TYPOS.

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  OVER NORTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DRIFT
INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL. THIS
WILL PLACE THE AREA UNDER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SATURDAY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
STRATUS HAS MADE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE FAR SOUTHERN PUGET SOUND
AND ADMIRALTY INLET AREA AT THIS TIME. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO BLANKET MUCH OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE
RETREATING BACK TO THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...SO EXPECT ADDITIONAL WARMING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
DECIDED TO OMIT THE CHANCE OF TSTMS FOR TODAY. THE INGREDIENTS
/MOISTURE...LIFT...AND INSTABILITY/ PLUS THE STEERING FLOW DID NOT
APPEAR AS FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TODAY AS YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THIS
DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE THREAT OF TSTMS IS ZERO...JUST NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO MENTION THEM IN THE FORECAST.

A CUT-OFF LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL BEGIN TO EXERT MORE
INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRI. CONFIDENCE IN THE
CLOUD AND MAX TEMP FORECAST WAS NOT VERY HIGH. THIS WILL BE A
TRICKY FORECAST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SURFACE ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD BE STRONGER THAN WHAT THE MODELS
ADVERTISED...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO COOLER THAN PREDICTED TEMPS ON
FRI. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE A THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES ON FRI.

IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY...SO CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST WAS NOT HIGH. CHOSE TO LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER
SOLUTIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR...UNLESS THE ONSHORE GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING
TIGHTER THAN PREDICTED.

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF
A NEGATIVE-TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THUS...TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO
SATURDAY DUE TO WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER OREGON ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL COOL INTO THE
60S. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE SOUTH...CLOSE ENOUGH TO
KEEP SHOWERS AND CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE 60S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THINGS TO DRY OUT AND THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. SCHNEIDER/05

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL WEAKEN AND
SLIDE EAST TODAY. N FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME WLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE WITH A MARINE LAYER THAT
WILL BURN BACK TO THE COASTLINE MIDDAY.

VERY LOW STRATUS WITH AREAS OF FOG HAS PUSHED EAST THROUGH THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA ONTO WHIDBEY ISLAND. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL SLIDE SE THROUGH ADMIRALTY INLET TO AROUND THE KPAE TERMINAL BY
12Z. IN THE MEAN TIME LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS PUSHED INLAND THROUGH
THE CHEHALIS GAP TO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PUGET SOUND. EXPECT
THIS DECK TO REACH THE KSEA TERMINAL AROUND 12Z. STRATUS BASES ARE
003-005 MSL AND TOPS APPEAR TO BE 1000 FT OR LESS BASED ON ESTIMATES
FROM MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGES EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT ALL
OF THE STRATUS TO BURN BACK TO THE PACIFIC COASTLINE BY 19Z LEAVING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE INTERIOR. THE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES
WILL DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING 21Z-03Z THIS AFTERNOON GIVING
SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE CREST AS THE
STEERING FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NWLY. STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WILL
PUSH BACK INLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND REACH MOST OF THE INLAND
TERMINALS FRIDAY MORNING WITH COVERAGE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THIS
MORNING. ALBRECHT

KSEA...STRATUS WITH BASES 002-003 WILL REACH THE TERMINAL BY 13Z.
THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT VIS WILL LOWER TO 2SM OR LESS AS
THE BASES OF THE INCOMING STRATUS LAYER IS QUITE LOW -FL003 AT KSHN.
STRATUS WILL QUICKLY LIFT AND BURN OFF 18Z-19Z THEN MOVE BACK INLAND
13Z ON FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NWLY 4-7 KT AFTER 19Z THEN
TURN NORTH AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 140W COMBINED WITH LOWER PRES
E OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE FLOW THOUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA WILL
LIKELY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING
IN THE INTERIOR. ALBRECHT

&&


.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TIL 6 AM THIS MORNING FOR THE
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 281046 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
345 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

CORRECTED TO FIX A COUPLE OF TYPOS.

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  OVER NORTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DRIFT
INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL. THIS
WILL PLACE THE AREA UNDER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SATURDAY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
STRATUS HAS MADE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE FAR SOUTHERN PUGET SOUND
AND ADMIRALTY INLET AREA AT THIS TIME. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO BLANKET MUCH OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE
RETREATING BACK TO THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...SO EXPECT ADDITIONAL WARMING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
DECIDED TO OMIT THE CHANCE OF TSTMS FOR TODAY. THE INGREDIENTS
/MOISTURE...LIFT...AND INSTABILITY/ PLUS THE STEERING FLOW DID NOT
APPEAR AS FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TODAY AS YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THIS
DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE THREAT OF TSTMS IS ZERO...JUST NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO MENTION THEM IN THE FORECAST.

A CUT-OFF LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL BEGIN TO EXERT MORE
INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRI. CONFIDENCE IN THE
CLOUD AND MAX TEMP FORECAST WAS NOT VERY HIGH. THIS WILL BE A
TRICKY FORECAST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SURFACE ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD BE STRONGER THAN WHAT THE MODELS
ADVERTISED...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO COOLER THAN PREDICTED TEMPS ON
FRI. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE A THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES ON FRI.

IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY...SO CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST WAS NOT HIGH. CHOSE TO LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER
SOLUTIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR...UNLESS THE ONSHORE GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING
TIGHTER THAN PREDICTED.

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF
A NEGATIVE-TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THUS...TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO
SATURDAY DUE TO WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER OREGON ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL COOL INTO THE
60S. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE SOUTH...CLOSE ENOUGH TO
KEEP SHOWERS AND CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE 60S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THINGS TO DRY OUT AND THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. SCHNEIDER/05

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL WEAKEN AND
SLIDE EAST TODAY. N FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME WLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE WITH A MARINE LAYER THAT
WILL BURN BACK TO THE COASTLINE MIDDAY.

VERY LOW STRATUS WITH AREAS OF FOG HAS PUSHED EAST THROUGH THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA ONTO WHIDBEY ISLAND. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL SLIDE SE THROUGH ADMIRALTY INLET TO AROUND THE KPAE TERMINAL BY
12Z. IN THE MEAN TIME LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS PUSHED INLAND THROUGH
THE CHEHALIS GAP TO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PUGET SOUND. EXPECT
THIS DECK TO REACH THE KSEA TERMINAL AROUND 12Z. STRATUS BASES ARE
003-005 MSL AND TOPS APPEAR TO BE 1000 FT OR LESS BASED ON ESTIMATES
FROM MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGES EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT ALL
OF THE STRATUS TO BURN BACK TO THE PACIFIC COASTLINE BY 19Z LEAVING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE INTERIOR. THE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES
WILL DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING 21Z-03Z THIS AFTERNOON GIVING
SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE CREST AS THE
STEERING FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NWLY. STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WILL
PUSH BACK INLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND REACH MOST OF THE INLAND
TERMINALS FRIDAY MORNING WITH COVERAGE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THIS
MORNING. ALBRECHT

KSEA...STRATUS WITH BASES 002-003 WILL REACH THE TERMINAL BY 13Z.
THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT VIS WILL LOWER TO 2SM OR LESS AS
THE BASES OF THE INCOMING STRATUS LAYER IS QUITE LOW -FL003 AT KSHN.
STRATUS WILL QUICKLY LIFT AND BURN OFF 18Z-19Z THEN MOVE BACK INLAND
13Z ON FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NWLY 4-7 KT AFTER 19Z THEN
TURN NORTH AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 140W COMBINED WITH LOWER PRES
E OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE FLOW THOUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA WILL
LIKELY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING
IN THE INTERIOR. ALBRECHT

&&


.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TIL 6 AM THIS MORNING FOR THE
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 281046 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
345 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

CORRECTED TO FIX A COUPLE OF TYPOS.

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  OVER NORTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DRIFT
INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL. THIS
WILL PLACE THE AREA UNDER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SATURDAY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
STRATUS HAS MADE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE FAR SOUTHERN PUGET SOUND
AND ADMIRALTY INLET AREA AT THIS TIME. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO BLANKET MUCH OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE
RETREATING BACK TO THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...SO EXPECT ADDITIONAL WARMING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
DECIDED TO OMIT THE CHANCE OF TSTMS FOR TODAY. THE INGREDIENTS
/MOISTURE...LIFT...AND INSTABILITY/ PLUS THE STEERING FLOW DID NOT
APPEAR AS FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TODAY AS YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THIS
DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE THREAT OF TSTMS IS ZERO...JUST NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO MENTION THEM IN THE FORECAST.

A CUT-OFF LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL BEGIN TO EXERT MORE
INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRI. CONFIDENCE IN THE
CLOUD AND MAX TEMP FORECAST WAS NOT VERY HIGH. THIS WILL BE A
TRICKY FORECAST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SURFACE ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD BE STRONGER THAN WHAT THE MODELS
ADVERTISED...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO COOLER THAN PREDICTED TEMPS ON
FRI. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE A THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES ON FRI.

IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY...SO CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST WAS NOT HIGH. CHOSE TO LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER
SOLUTIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR...UNLESS THE ONSHORE GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING
TIGHTER THAN PREDICTED.

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF
A NEGATIVE-TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THUS...TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO
SATURDAY DUE TO WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER OREGON ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL COOL INTO THE
60S. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE SOUTH...CLOSE ENOUGH TO
KEEP SHOWERS AND CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE 60S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THINGS TO DRY OUT AND THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. SCHNEIDER/05

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL WEAKEN AND
SLIDE EAST TODAY. N FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME WLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE WITH A MARINE LAYER THAT
WILL BURN BACK TO THE COASTLINE MIDDAY.

VERY LOW STRATUS WITH AREAS OF FOG HAS PUSHED EAST THROUGH THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA ONTO WHIDBEY ISLAND. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL SLIDE SE THROUGH ADMIRALTY INLET TO AROUND THE KPAE TERMINAL BY
12Z. IN THE MEAN TIME LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS PUSHED INLAND THROUGH
THE CHEHALIS GAP TO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PUGET SOUND. EXPECT
THIS DECK TO REACH THE KSEA TERMINAL AROUND 12Z. STRATUS BASES ARE
003-005 MSL AND TOPS APPEAR TO BE 1000 FT OR LESS BASED ON ESTIMATES
FROM MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGES EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT ALL
OF THE STRATUS TO BURN BACK TO THE PACIFIC COASTLINE BY 19Z LEAVING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE INTERIOR. THE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES
WILL DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING 21Z-03Z THIS AFTERNOON GIVING
SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE CREST AS THE
STEERING FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NWLY. STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WILL
PUSH BACK INLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND REACH MOST OF THE INLAND
TERMINALS FRIDAY MORNING WITH COVERAGE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THIS
MORNING. ALBRECHT

KSEA...STRATUS WITH BASES 002-003 WILL REACH THE TERMINAL BY 13Z.
THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT VIS WILL LOWER TO 2SM OR LESS AS
THE BASES OF THE INCOMING STRATUS LAYER IS QUITE LOW -FL003 AT KSHN.
STRATUS WILL QUICKLY LIFT AND BURN OFF 18Z-19Z THEN MOVE BACK INLAND
13Z ON FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NWLY 4-7 KT AFTER 19Z THEN
TURN NORTH AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 140W COMBINED WITH LOWER PRES
E OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE FLOW THOUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA WILL
LIKELY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING
IN THE INTERIOR. ALBRECHT

&&


.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TIL 6 AM THIS MORNING FOR THE
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 281029
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
329 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  OVER NORTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DRIFT
INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL. THIS
WILL PLACE THE AREA UNDER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SATURDAY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
STRATUS HAS MADE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE FAR SOUTHERN PUGET SOUND
AND ADMIRALTY INLET AREA AT THIS TIME. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO BLANKET MUCH OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE
RETREATING BACK TO THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...SO EXPECT ADDITIONAL WARMING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
DECIDED TO OMIT THE CHANCE OF TSTMS FOR TODAY. THE INGREDIENTS
/MOISTURE...LIFT...AND INSTABILITY/ PLUS THE STEERING FLOW DID NOT
APPEAR AS FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TODAY AS YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THIS
DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE THREAT OF TSTMS IS ZERO...JUST NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO BE CONFIDENT IN MENTIONING THEM IN THE FORECAST.

A CUT-OFF LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL BEGIN TO EXERT MORE
INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRI. CONFIDENCE IN THE
CLOUD AND MAX TEMP FORECAST WAS NOT VERY HIGH. THIS WILL BE A
TRICKY FORECAST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SURFACE ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD BE STRONGER THAN WHAT THE MODELS
ADVERTISED...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO COOLER THAN PREDICTED TEMPS ON
FRI. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE A THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES ON FRI.

IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY...SO CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST WAS NOT HIGH. CHOSE TO LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER
SOLUTIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR...UNLESS THE ONSHORE GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING
TIGHTER THAN PREDICTED.

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF
A NEGATIVE-TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THUS...TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO
SATURDAY DUE TO WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW. ...

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER OREGON ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL COOL INTO THE
60S. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE SOUTH...CLOSE ENOUGH TO
KEEP SHOWERS AND CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE 60S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THINGS TO DRY OUT AND THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. SCHNEIDER/05

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL WEAKEN AND
SLIDE EAST TODAY. N FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME WLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE WITH A MARINE LAYER THAT
WILL BURN BACK TO THE COASTLINE MIDDAY.

VERY LOW STRATUS WITH AREAS OF FOG HAS PUSHED EAST THROUGH THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA ONTO WHIDBEY ISLAND. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL SLIDE SE THROUGH ADMIRALTY INLET TO AROUND THE KPAE TERMINAL BY
12Z. IN THE MEAN TIME LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS PUSHED INLAND THROUGH
THE CHEHALIS GAP TO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PUGET SOUND. EXPECT
THIS DECK TO REACH THE KSEA TERMINAL AROUND 12Z. STRATUS BASES ARE
003-005 MSL AND TOPS APPEAR TO BE 1000 FT OR LESS BASED ON ESTIMATES
FROM MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGES EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT ALL
OF THE STRATUS TO BURN BACK TO THE PACIFIC COASTLINE BY 19Z LEAVING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE INTERIOR. THE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES
WILL DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING 21Z-03Z THIS AFTERNOON GIVING
SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE CREST AS THE
STEERING FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NWLY. STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WILL
PUSH BACK INLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND REACH MOST OF THE INLAND
TERMINALS FRIDAY MORNING WITH COVERAGE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THIS
MORNING. ALBRECHT

KSEA...STRATUS WITH BASES 002-003 WILL REACH THE TERMINAL BY 13Z.
THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT VIS WILL LOWER TO 2SM OR LESS AS
THE BASES OF THE INCOMING STRATUS LAYER IS QUITE LOW -FL003 AT KSHN.
STRATUS WILL QUICKLY LIFT AND BURN OFF 18Z-19Z THEN MOVE BACK INLAND
13Z ON FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NWLY 4-7 KT AFTER 19Z THEN
TURN NORTH AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 140W COMBINED WITH LOWER PRES
E OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE FLOW THOUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA WILL
LIKELY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING
IN THE INTERIOR. ALBRECHT

&&


.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TIL 6 AM THIS MORNING FOR THE
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 281029
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
329 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  OVER NORTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DRIFT
INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL. THIS
WILL PLACE THE AREA UNDER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SATURDAY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
STRATUS HAS MADE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE FAR SOUTHERN PUGET SOUND
AND ADMIRALTY INLET AREA AT THIS TIME. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO BLANKET MUCH OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE
RETREATING BACK TO THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...SO EXPECT ADDITIONAL WARMING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
DECIDED TO OMIT THE CHANCE OF TSTMS FOR TODAY. THE INGREDIENTS
/MOISTURE...LIFT...AND INSTABILITY/ PLUS THE STEERING FLOW DID NOT
APPEAR AS FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TODAY AS YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THIS
DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE THREAT OF TSTMS IS ZERO...JUST NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO BE CONFIDENT IN MENTIONING THEM IN THE FORECAST.

A CUT-OFF LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL BEGIN TO EXERT MORE
INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRI. CONFIDENCE IN THE
CLOUD AND MAX TEMP FORECAST WAS NOT VERY HIGH. THIS WILL BE A
TRICKY FORECAST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SURFACE ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD BE STRONGER THAN WHAT THE MODELS
ADVERTISED...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO COOLER THAN PREDICTED TEMPS ON
FRI. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE A THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES ON FRI.

IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY...SO CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST WAS NOT HIGH. CHOSE TO LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER
SOLUTIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR...UNLESS THE ONSHORE GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING
TIGHTER THAN PREDICTED.

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF
A NEGATIVE-TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THUS...TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO
SATURDAY DUE TO WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW. ...

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER OREGON ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL COOL INTO THE
60S. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE SOUTH...CLOSE ENOUGH TO
KEEP SHOWERS AND CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE 60S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THINGS TO DRY OUT AND THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. SCHNEIDER/05

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL WEAKEN AND
SLIDE EAST TODAY. N FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME WLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE WITH A MARINE LAYER THAT
WILL BURN BACK TO THE COASTLINE MIDDAY.

VERY LOW STRATUS WITH AREAS OF FOG HAS PUSHED EAST THROUGH THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA ONTO WHIDBEY ISLAND. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL SLIDE SE THROUGH ADMIRALTY INLET TO AROUND THE KPAE TERMINAL BY
12Z. IN THE MEAN TIME LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS PUSHED INLAND THROUGH
THE CHEHALIS GAP TO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PUGET SOUND. EXPECT
THIS DECK TO REACH THE KSEA TERMINAL AROUND 12Z. STRATUS BASES ARE
003-005 MSL AND TOPS APPEAR TO BE 1000 FT OR LESS BASED ON ESTIMATES
FROM MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGES EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT ALL
OF THE STRATUS TO BURN BACK TO THE PACIFIC COASTLINE BY 19Z LEAVING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE INTERIOR. THE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES
WILL DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING 21Z-03Z THIS AFTERNOON GIVING
SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE CREST AS THE
STEERING FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NWLY. STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WILL
PUSH BACK INLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND REACH MOST OF THE INLAND
TERMINALS FRIDAY MORNING WITH COVERAGE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THIS
MORNING. ALBRECHT

KSEA...STRATUS WITH BASES 002-003 WILL REACH THE TERMINAL BY 13Z.
THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT VIS WILL LOWER TO 2SM OR LESS AS
THE BASES OF THE INCOMING STRATUS LAYER IS QUITE LOW -FL003 AT KSHN.
STRATUS WILL QUICKLY LIFT AND BURN OFF 18Z-19Z THEN MOVE BACK INLAND
13Z ON FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NWLY 4-7 KT AFTER 19Z THEN
TURN NORTH AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 140W COMBINED WITH LOWER PRES
E OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE FLOW THOUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA WILL
LIKELY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING
IN THE INTERIOR. ALBRECHT

&&


.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TIL 6 AM THIS MORNING FOR THE
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 281029
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
329 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  OVER NORTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DRIFT
INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL. THIS
WILL PLACE THE AREA UNDER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SATURDAY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
STRATUS HAS MADE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE FAR SOUTHERN PUGET SOUND
AND ADMIRALTY INLET AREA AT THIS TIME. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO BLANKET MUCH OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE
RETREATING BACK TO THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...SO EXPECT ADDITIONAL WARMING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
DECIDED TO OMIT THE CHANCE OF TSTMS FOR TODAY. THE INGREDIENTS
/MOISTURE...LIFT...AND INSTABILITY/ PLUS THE STEERING FLOW DID NOT
APPEAR AS FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TODAY AS YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THIS
DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE THREAT OF TSTMS IS ZERO...JUST NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO BE CONFIDENT IN MENTIONING THEM IN THE FORECAST.

A CUT-OFF LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL BEGIN TO EXERT MORE
INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRI. CONFIDENCE IN THE
CLOUD AND MAX TEMP FORECAST WAS NOT VERY HIGH. THIS WILL BE A
TRICKY FORECAST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SURFACE ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD BE STRONGER THAN WHAT THE MODELS
ADVERTISED...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO COOLER THAN PREDICTED TEMPS ON
FRI. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE A THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES ON FRI.

IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY...SO CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST WAS NOT HIGH. CHOSE TO LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER
SOLUTIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR...UNLESS THE ONSHORE GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING
TIGHTER THAN PREDICTED.

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF
A NEGATIVE-TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THUS...TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO
SATURDAY DUE TO WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW. ...

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER OREGON ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL COOL INTO THE
60S. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE SOUTH...CLOSE ENOUGH TO
KEEP SHOWERS AND CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE 60S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THINGS TO DRY OUT AND THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. SCHNEIDER/05

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL WEAKEN AND
SLIDE EAST TODAY. N FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME WLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE WITH A MARINE LAYER THAT
WILL BURN BACK TO THE COASTLINE MIDDAY.

VERY LOW STRATUS WITH AREAS OF FOG HAS PUSHED EAST THROUGH THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA ONTO WHIDBEY ISLAND. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL SLIDE SE THROUGH ADMIRALTY INLET TO AROUND THE KPAE TERMINAL BY
12Z. IN THE MEAN TIME LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS PUSHED INLAND THROUGH
THE CHEHALIS GAP TO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PUGET SOUND. EXPECT
THIS DECK TO REACH THE KSEA TERMINAL AROUND 12Z. STRATUS BASES ARE
003-005 MSL AND TOPS APPEAR TO BE 1000 FT OR LESS BASED ON ESTIMATES
FROM MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGES EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT ALL
OF THE STRATUS TO BURN BACK TO THE PACIFIC COASTLINE BY 19Z LEAVING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE INTERIOR. THE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES
WILL DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING 21Z-03Z THIS AFTERNOON GIVING
SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE CREST AS THE
STEERING FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NWLY. STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WILL
PUSH BACK INLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND REACH MOST OF THE INLAND
TERMINALS FRIDAY MORNING WITH COVERAGE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THIS
MORNING. ALBRECHT

KSEA...STRATUS WITH BASES 002-003 WILL REACH THE TERMINAL BY 13Z.
THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT VIS WILL LOWER TO 2SM OR LESS AS
THE BASES OF THE INCOMING STRATUS LAYER IS QUITE LOW -FL003 AT KSHN.
STRATUS WILL QUICKLY LIFT AND BURN OFF 18Z-19Z THEN MOVE BACK INLAND
13Z ON FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NWLY 4-7 KT AFTER 19Z THEN
TURN NORTH AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 140W COMBINED WITH LOWER PRES
E OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE FLOW THOUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA WILL
LIKELY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING
IN THE INTERIOR. ALBRECHT

&&


.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TIL 6 AM THIS MORNING FOR THE
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 281029
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
329 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  OVER NORTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DRIFT
INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL. THIS
WILL PLACE THE AREA UNDER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SATURDAY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
STRATUS HAS MADE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE FAR SOUTHERN PUGET SOUND
AND ADMIRALTY INLET AREA AT THIS TIME. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO BLANKET MUCH OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE
RETREATING BACK TO THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...SO EXPECT ADDITIONAL WARMING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
DECIDED TO OMIT THE CHANCE OF TSTMS FOR TODAY. THE INGREDIENTS
/MOISTURE...LIFT...AND INSTABILITY/ PLUS THE STEERING FLOW DID NOT
APPEAR AS FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TODAY AS YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THIS
DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE THREAT OF TSTMS IS ZERO...JUST NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO BE CONFIDENT IN MENTIONING THEM IN THE FORECAST.

A CUT-OFF LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL BEGIN TO EXERT MORE
INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRI. CONFIDENCE IN THE
CLOUD AND MAX TEMP FORECAST WAS NOT VERY HIGH. THIS WILL BE A
TRICKY FORECAST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SURFACE ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD BE STRONGER THAN WHAT THE MODELS
ADVERTISED...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO COOLER THAN PREDICTED TEMPS ON
FRI. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE A THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES ON FRI.

IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY...SO CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST WAS NOT HIGH. CHOSE TO LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER
SOLUTIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR...UNLESS THE ONSHORE GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING
TIGHTER THAN PREDICTED.

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF
A NEGATIVE-TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THUS...TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO
SATURDAY DUE TO WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW. ...

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER OREGON ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL COOL INTO THE
60S. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE SOUTH...CLOSE ENOUGH TO
KEEP SHOWERS AND CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE 60S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THINGS TO DRY OUT AND THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. SCHNEIDER/05

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL WEAKEN AND
SLIDE EAST TODAY. N FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME WLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE WITH A MARINE LAYER THAT
WILL BURN BACK TO THE COASTLINE MIDDAY.

VERY LOW STRATUS WITH AREAS OF FOG HAS PUSHED EAST THROUGH THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA ONTO WHIDBEY ISLAND. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL SLIDE SE THROUGH ADMIRALTY INLET TO AROUND THE KPAE TERMINAL BY
12Z. IN THE MEAN TIME LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS PUSHED INLAND THROUGH
THE CHEHALIS GAP TO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PUGET SOUND. EXPECT
THIS DECK TO REACH THE KSEA TERMINAL AROUND 12Z. STRATUS BASES ARE
003-005 MSL AND TOPS APPEAR TO BE 1000 FT OR LESS BASED ON ESTIMATES
FROM MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGES EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT ALL
OF THE STRATUS TO BURN BACK TO THE PACIFIC COASTLINE BY 19Z LEAVING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE INTERIOR. THE AIR MASS OVER THE CASCADES
WILL DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING 21Z-03Z THIS AFTERNOON GIVING
SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE CREST AS THE
STEERING FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NWLY. STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WILL
PUSH BACK INLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND REACH MOST OF THE INLAND
TERMINALS FRIDAY MORNING WITH COVERAGE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THIS
MORNING. ALBRECHT

KSEA...STRATUS WITH BASES 002-003 WILL REACH THE TERMINAL BY 13Z.
THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT VIS WILL LOWER TO 2SM OR LESS AS
THE BASES OF THE INCOMING STRATUS LAYER IS QUITE LOW -FL003 AT KSHN.
STRATUS WILL QUICKLY LIFT AND BURN OFF 18Z-19Z THEN MOVE BACK INLAND
13Z ON FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NWLY 4-7 KT AFTER 19Z THEN
TURN NORTH AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 140W COMBINED WITH LOWER PRES
E OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE FLOW THOUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA WILL
LIKELY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING
IN THE INTERIOR. ALBRECHT

&&


.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TIL 6 AM THIS MORNING FOR THE
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KOTX 280931
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
231 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue today
and Friday. However they will be more focused around the
mountains. Expect a warming trend into the weekend, with highs in
the 80s, with a lingering threat of mainly mountain showers and
thunderstorms. By next Monday and Tuesday the next best chance of
showers and thunderstorms arrives, with the potential for some
stronger storms and the return of cooler temperatures.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Friday: Another upper level low pressure system will
drop south over BC. This area of low pressure will not push much
further south than central BC though as ridging across California
and Oregon keeps it north of the region. Dew point temperatures
will be in the mid 40s to low 50s today. This will result in
uncapped or weakly capped CAPEs of around 200-500 J/KG across the
mountains. This will be enough instability for more isolated to
scattered shower activity with isolated thunderstorms also
possible. The NAM model has had a tendency this season to be too
unstable, so I am leaning toward the GFS depiction of our
potential instability today. This solution gives very little
instability over the basin. This makes sense as showers and
thunderstorm coverage was lacking yesterday with our previous low
pressure system making its exit. Heights aloft will be a bit
higher today compared to the last few days with that low moving
into the Rockies. This should result in little to no convection
over the basin this afternoon. A weak disturbance will push across
the region tonight. This will keep showers going over the northern
mountains. Mid level instability also looks fairly weak, so
thunderstorms are not expected to continue into the overnight
hours.

The better instability on Friday will reside over the northern
mountains. This should result in less of a chance for showers and
thunderstorms over the NE Blue Mtns over to the Central Panhandle
Mtns. However, we will see showers increasing through the day on
Friday over the northern mountains with a chance for thunderstorms
again in the afternoon. There will be a bit more shear on Friday,
which may lead to a few stronger cells compared to what we see
this afternoon. Any severe thunderstorms would be unlikely, but
small hail, heavy downpours and gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph
will be possible. Best potential for some stronger storms would
be closer to the Canadian border.

Temperatures will continue their upward trend with highs over much
of the region in the 80s. Some of the warmer locations across the
region such as Omak, Leavenworth, Wenatchee, Moses Lake and
Lewiston will be in the upper 80s and even approach the 90 degree
mark on Friday. /SVH

Friday night through Sunday...Not a big change in model guidance
through Sunday. To recap another closed low currently moving into
northern B.C. will drop south into central B.C. Then take a turn
to the east and weaken somewhat Friday night through Sunday. This
will result in zonal flow through the weekend. Drier air will
finally move into the region. This will result in a warming and
drying trend through late Sunday afternoon. Some late day showers
and thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday along the Montana
border due to some lingering moisture...otherwise expect dry
conditions. Temperatures will be mainly in the 80s and 90s both
days. Temperatures were cooled by a couple of degrees Sunday with
850 temps cooling a few degrees C. Late Sunday afternoon moisture
moving up from the south may result in a chance for
showers/thunderstorms across the Blues, the Camas Prairie, and up
into southern Shoshone county. Timing of the moisture will be
everything and we could easily just see some afternoon cloud
buildups.

Sunday through Thursday...Guidance has been showing a closed low,
currently out near 40n/150w finally make it`s way to the OR/CAL
coast by Sunday for several days. Southerly flow ahead of said low
will pump moisture up from the south helping to destabilize the
atmosphere. The models are similar up through Sunday evening, then
start showing major differences in timing the front as it moves
north through the region. As such confidence in this portion of
the forecast is less than average. This pattern is very good for
strong convection across the Pac NW. The challenge is all in the
timing.

At this time we are leaning strongly towards the GFS which brings
a cold front through the region on Monday. Mid and upper level
instability, DivQ and High Level Totals will increase through
Sunday evening and forcing due to a vigorous shortwave will
provide ample lift to tap into this instability and result in
nocturnal thunderstorms. Wind shear is between 40-50kts through
about 15z Monday morning. Ample moisture will result in locally
heavy rain, small to moderate sized hail, and gusty outflow winds.
For now the best chance for thunderstorms Sunday night will be
roughly east of a line from about the Tri-Cities to Mullan Pass.

There will likely be a break Monday morning, then surface based
capes increase to over 1000 j/kg according to the GFS. The front
will act as a focusing point for an active thunderstorm day
Monday. But there are some problems as well. For one the shear
drops down to around 20kts by mid-day Monday that should keep hail
from gaining any size. And ample cloud cover may inhibit deep
convection, but the front will likely overcome the cloud cover. So
an active day, likely not severe, but with PWAT`s over .75
localized very heavy rain is likely. Again timing will be
everything. There will also be a significant drop in temperatures
with highs dropping back to near seasonal norms. We expect model
guidance will tighten up over the next few days, and at this time
we feel this is the best solution.

Tuesday through Thursday afternoon and evening showers and
possible thunderstorms will linger across the region and were kept
in the forecast, but confidence in the forecast through this
period is even lower than for Monday. We do expect temperatures to
remain near or just on the warm side of normal through the end of
the week. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Isolated -shra remain a threat tonight over the
NE TAF sites (GEG to COE) as a disturbance drops in from the
north, interacting with some elevated instability. The threat that
a shower may pass a TAF site is small. Behind the showers in the
morning there could be some patchy fog, but it should be shallow
and short-lived and may not impact TAF sites. Additional showers
and thunderstorms are expected in afternoon heating Thursday.
Confidence is highest around the mountains, but some may pass the
TAF sites too. In this latter region confidence is highest closer
to the ID border. The threat will wane again after dark Thursday
night. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  57  82  59  82  59 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  78  54  82  57  82  56 /  20  20  10  20  20  10
Pullman        75  52  82  57  80  56 /  10  10  10  20  20  10
Lewiston       83  58  88  64  87  62 /  10  10  10  20  20  20
Colville       82  54  83  55  85  53 /  30  40  40  30  20  20
Sandpoint      78  51  81  52  80  52 /  30  40  30  20  20  20
Kellogg        76  49  81  54  80  53 /  40  40  20  30  30  20
Moses Lake     86  58  90  59  91  58 /  10  10   0  10  10  10
Wenatchee      86  64  89  63  89  62 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           86  56  87  54  89  53 /  10  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 280931
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
231 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue today
and Friday. However they will be more focused around the
mountains. Expect a warming trend into the weekend, with highs in
the 80s, with a lingering threat of mainly mountain showers and
thunderstorms. By next Monday and Tuesday the next best chance of
showers and thunderstorms arrives, with the potential for some
stronger storms and the return of cooler temperatures.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Friday: Another upper level low pressure system will
drop south over BC. This area of low pressure will not push much
further south than central BC though as ridging across California
and Oregon keeps it north of the region. Dew point temperatures
will be in the mid 40s to low 50s today. This will result in
uncapped or weakly capped CAPEs of around 200-500 J/KG across the
mountains. This will be enough instability for more isolated to
scattered shower activity with isolated thunderstorms also
possible. The NAM model has had a tendency this season to be too
unstable, so I am leaning toward the GFS depiction of our
potential instability today. This solution gives very little
instability over the basin. This makes sense as showers and
thunderstorm coverage was lacking yesterday with our previous low
pressure system making its exit. Heights aloft will be a bit
higher today compared to the last few days with that low moving
into the Rockies. This should result in little to no convection
over the basin this afternoon. A weak disturbance will push across
the region tonight. This will keep showers going over the northern
mountains. Mid level instability also looks fairly weak, so
thunderstorms are not expected to continue into the overnight
hours.

The better instability on Friday will reside over the northern
mountains. This should result in less of a chance for showers and
thunderstorms over the NE Blue Mtns over to the Central Panhandle
Mtns. However, we will see showers increasing through the day on
Friday over the northern mountains with a chance for thunderstorms
again in the afternoon. There will be a bit more shear on Friday,
which may lead to a few stronger cells compared to what we see
this afternoon. Any severe thunderstorms would be unlikely, but
small hail, heavy downpours and gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph
will be possible. Best potential for some stronger storms would
be closer to the Canadian border.

Temperatures will continue their upward trend with highs over much
of the region in the 80s. Some of the warmer locations across the
region such as Omak, Leavenworth, Wenatchee, Moses Lake and
Lewiston will be in the upper 80s and even approach the 90 degree
mark on Friday. /SVH

Friday night through Sunday...Not a big change in model guidance
through Sunday. To recap another closed low currently moving into
northern B.C. will drop south into central B.C. Then take a turn
to the east and weaken somewhat Friday night through Sunday. This
will result in zonal flow through the weekend. Drier air will
finally move into the region. This will result in a warming and
drying trend through late Sunday afternoon. Some late day showers
and thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday along the Montana
border due to some lingering moisture...otherwise expect dry
conditions. Temperatures will be mainly in the 80s and 90s both
days. Temperatures were cooled by a couple of degrees Sunday with
850 temps cooling a few degrees C. Late Sunday afternoon moisture
moving up from the south may result in a chance for
showers/thunderstorms across the Blues, the Camas Prairie, and up
into southern Shoshone county. Timing of the moisture will be
everything and we could easily just see some afternoon cloud
buildups.

Sunday through Thursday...Guidance has been showing a closed low,
currently out near 40n/150w finally make it`s way to the OR/CAL
coast by Sunday for several days. Southerly flow ahead of said low
will pump moisture up from the south helping to destabilize the
atmosphere. The models are similar up through Sunday evening, then
start showing major differences in timing the front as it moves
north through the region. As such confidence in this portion of
the forecast is less than average. This pattern is very good for
strong convection across the Pac NW. The challenge is all in the
timing.

At this time we are leaning strongly towards the GFS which brings
a cold front through the region on Monday. Mid and upper level
instability, DivQ and High Level Totals will increase through
Sunday evening and forcing due to a vigorous shortwave will
provide ample lift to tap into this instability and result in
nocturnal thunderstorms. Wind shear is between 40-50kts through
about 15z Monday morning. Ample moisture will result in locally
heavy rain, small to moderate sized hail, and gusty outflow winds.
For now the best chance for thunderstorms Sunday night will be
roughly east of a line from about the Tri-Cities to Mullan Pass.

There will likely be a break Monday morning, then surface based
capes increase to over 1000 j/kg according to the GFS. The front
will act as a focusing point for an active thunderstorm day
Monday. But there are some problems as well. For one the shear
drops down to around 20kts by mid-day Monday that should keep hail
from gaining any size. And ample cloud cover may inhibit deep
convection, but the front will likely overcome the cloud cover. So
an active day, likely not severe, but with PWAT`s over .75
localized very heavy rain is likely. Again timing will be
everything. There will also be a significant drop in temperatures
with highs dropping back to near seasonal norms. We expect model
guidance will tighten up over the next few days, and at this time
we feel this is the best solution.

Tuesday through Thursday afternoon and evening showers and
possible thunderstorms will linger across the region and were kept
in the forecast, but confidence in the forecast through this
period is even lower than for Monday. We do expect temperatures to
remain near or just on the warm side of normal through the end of
the week. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Isolated -shra remain a threat tonight over the
NE TAF sites (GEG to COE) as a disturbance drops in from the
north, interacting with some elevated instability. The threat that
a shower may pass a TAF site is small. Behind the showers in the
morning there could be some patchy fog, but it should be shallow
and short-lived and may not impact TAF sites. Additional showers
and thunderstorms are expected in afternoon heating Thursday.
Confidence is highest around the mountains, but some may pass the
TAF sites too. In this latter region confidence is highest closer
to the ID border. The threat will wane again after dark Thursday
night. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  57  82  59  82  59 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  78  54  82  57  82  56 /  20  20  10  20  20  10
Pullman        75  52  82  57  80  56 /  10  10  10  20  20  10
Lewiston       83  58  88  64  87  62 /  10  10  10  20  20  20
Colville       82  54  83  55  85  53 /  30  40  40  30  20  20
Sandpoint      78  51  81  52  80  52 /  30  40  30  20  20  20
Kellogg        76  49  81  54  80  53 /  40  40  20  30  30  20
Moses Lake     86  58  90  59  91  58 /  10  10   0  10  10  10
Wenatchee      86  64  89  63  89  62 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           86  56  87  54  89  53 /  10  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 280931
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
231 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue today
and Friday. However they will be more focused around the
mountains. Expect a warming trend into the weekend, with highs in
the 80s, with a lingering threat of mainly mountain showers and
thunderstorms. By next Monday and Tuesday the next best chance of
showers and thunderstorms arrives, with the potential for some
stronger storms and the return of cooler temperatures.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Friday: Another upper level low pressure system will
drop south over BC. This area of low pressure will not push much
further south than central BC though as ridging across California
and Oregon keeps it north of the region. Dew point temperatures
will be in the mid 40s to low 50s today. This will result in
uncapped or weakly capped CAPEs of around 200-500 J/KG across the
mountains. This will be enough instability for more isolated to
scattered shower activity with isolated thunderstorms also
possible. The NAM model has had a tendency this season to be too
unstable, so I am leaning toward the GFS depiction of our
potential instability today. This solution gives very little
instability over the basin. This makes sense as showers and
thunderstorm coverage was lacking yesterday with our previous low
pressure system making its exit. Heights aloft will be a bit
higher today compared to the last few days with that low moving
into the Rockies. This should result in little to no convection
over the basin this afternoon. A weak disturbance will push across
the region tonight. This will keep showers going over the northern
mountains. Mid level instability also looks fairly weak, so
thunderstorms are not expected to continue into the overnight
hours.

The better instability on Friday will reside over the northern
mountains. This should result in less of a chance for showers and
thunderstorms over the NE Blue Mtns over to the Central Panhandle
Mtns. However, we will see showers increasing through the day on
Friday over the northern mountains with a chance for thunderstorms
again in the afternoon. There will be a bit more shear on Friday,
which may lead to a few stronger cells compared to what we see
this afternoon. Any severe thunderstorms would be unlikely, but
small hail, heavy downpours and gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph
will be possible. Best potential for some stronger storms would
be closer to the Canadian border.

Temperatures will continue their upward trend with highs over much
of the region in the 80s. Some of the warmer locations across the
region such as Omak, Leavenworth, Wenatchee, Moses Lake and
Lewiston will be in the upper 80s and even approach the 90 degree
mark on Friday. /SVH

Friday night through Sunday...Not a big change in model guidance
through Sunday. To recap another closed low currently moving into
northern B.C. will drop south into central B.C. Then take a turn
to the east and weaken somewhat Friday night through Sunday. This
will result in zonal flow through the weekend. Drier air will
finally move into the region. This will result in a warming and
drying trend through late Sunday afternoon. Some late day showers
and thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday along the Montana
border due to some lingering moisture...otherwise expect dry
conditions. Temperatures will be mainly in the 80s and 90s both
days. Temperatures were cooled by a couple of degrees Sunday with
850 temps cooling a few degrees C. Late Sunday afternoon moisture
moving up from the south may result in a chance for
showers/thunderstorms across the Blues, the Camas Prairie, and up
into southern Shoshone county. Timing of the moisture will be
everything and we could easily just see some afternoon cloud
buildups.

Sunday through Thursday...Guidance has been showing a closed low,
currently out near 40n/150w finally make it`s way to the OR/CAL
coast by Sunday for several days. Southerly flow ahead of said low
will pump moisture up from the south helping to destabilize the
atmosphere. The models are similar up through Sunday evening, then
start showing major differences in timing the front as it moves
north through the region. As such confidence in this portion of
the forecast is less than average. This pattern is very good for
strong convection across the Pac NW. The challenge is all in the
timing.

At this time we are leaning strongly towards the GFS which brings
a cold front through the region on Monday. Mid and upper level
instability, DivQ and High Level Totals will increase through
Sunday evening and forcing due to a vigorous shortwave will
provide ample lift to tap into this instability and result in
nocturnal thunderstorms. Wind shear is between 40-50kts through
about 15z Monday morning. Ample moisture will result in locally
heavy rain, small to moderate sized hail, and gusty outflow winds.
For now the best chance for thunderstorms Sunday night will be
roughly east of a line from about the Tri-Cities to Mullan Pass.

There will likely be a break Monday morning, then surface based
capes increase to over 1000 j/kg according to the GFS. The front
will act as a focusing point for an active thunderstorm day
Monday. But there are some problems as well. For one the shear
drops down to around 20kts by mid-day Monday that should keep hail
from gaining any size. And ample cloud cover may inhibit deep
convection, but the front will likely overcome the cloud cover. So
an active day, likely not severe, but with PWAT`s over .75
localized very heavy rain is likely. Again timing will be
everything. There will also be a significant drop in temperatures
with highs dropping back to near seasonal norms. We expect model
guidance will tighten up over the next few days, and at this time
we feel this is the best solution.

Tuesday through Thursday afternoon and evening showers and
possible thunderstorms will linger across the region and were kept
in the forecast, but confidence in the forecast through this
period is even lower than for Monday. We do expect temperatures to
remain near or just on the warm side of normal through the end of
the week. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Isolated -shra remain a threat tonight over the
NE TAF sites (GEG to COE) as a disturbance drops in from the
north, interacting with some elevated instability. The threat that
a shower may pass a TAF site is small. Behind the showers in the
morning there could be some patchy fog, but it should be shallow
and short-lived and may not impact TAF sites. Additional showers
and thunderstorms are expected in afternoon heating Thursday.
Confidence is highest around the mountains, but some may pass the
TAF sites too. In this latter region confidence is highest closer
to the ID border. The threat will wane again after dark Thursday
night. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  57  82  59  82  59 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  78  54  82  57  82  56 /  20  20  10  20  20  10
Pullman        75  52  82  57  80  56 /  10  10  10  20  20  10
Lewiston       83  58  88  64  87  62 /  10  10  10  20  20  20
Colville       82  54  83  55  85  53 /  30  40  40  30  20  20
Sandpoint      78  51  81  52  80  52 /  30  40  30  20  20  20
Kellogg        76  49  81  54  80  53 /  40  40  20  30  30  20
Moses Lake     86  58  90  59  91  58 /  10  10   0  10  10  10
Wenatchee      86  64  89  63  89  62 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           86  56  87  54  89  53 /  10  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KPQR 280850 RRA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
149 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL IDAHO TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY. EXPECT A LITTLE MORE WARMING
TODAY...AND THEN INLAND DAYTIME TEMPERATURE SHOULD PEAK FRIDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN SATURDAY. THE HIGHER CASCADES WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIM THREAT OF LATE-DAY THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEXT UPPER LOW SWINGS CLOSER TO THE OREGON COAST
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A LITTLE MORE COOLING BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF
CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS. A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS ONE
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL IDAHO...AND A SECOND LOW NEAR 55N 131W. A 500
MB RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWS A
DRY SLOT SLIDING SOUTH OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND AND THE WA COAST. ON THE
SMALLER SCALE...STRATUS HAS ALREADY REACHED KKLS AT 08Z. THE 975 MB
RH FORECAST FROM THE NAM VALID 09Z WAS A LITTLE BEHIND...SHOWING THE
90 PCT OR GREATER VALUES A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM
FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
HIGHER CASCADES. THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS CENTERED NEAR THE
OREGON...WASHINGTON...IDAHO TRIPLE-POINT 00Z THU WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR A POINT NEAR SANTIAM
PASS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...MAINTAIN SOME DEGREE OF INSTABILITY FROM
LATE-AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING TODAY AND FRI. BELIEVE THE MODELS
MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVER-DOING THE LOW-LEVEL DEW POINTS...THUS GENERATING
HIGHER CAPE VALUES. ACTUALLY THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...
ALBEIT SLIM...WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER S WA CASCADES.

EXPECT A THINNER MARINE LAYER TODAY. THE 06Z NAM DOES NOT SHOW MARINE
STRATUS REACHING KPDX...ALTHOUGH THE HI-RES ARW DOES INDICATE STRATUS
GETTING TO NEAR MULTNOMAH FALLS BY 15Z. HI-RES MODEL ALSO SUGGESTING
THE BEACHES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY. MAY BE A SHORT PERIOD OF SCATTERED
SKY CONDITIONS LATE IN THE DAY FROM ABOUT KONP NORTHWARD. MODEL 850
MB TEMPS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15C TODAY IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...
UP ABOUT 1 DEG FROM WED. THIS SHOULD PUT THE INLAND VALLEYS IN THE
LOWER 80S. WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE FRI WITH A SLIGHTLY WARMER START.
THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN A BIT LATE FRI AS AN UPPER LOW OVER
NRN BRITISH COLUMBIA SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH.

LITTLE CHANGE SAT WITH 500 MB HIGH PRES REMAINING OVER THE AREA. A
SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION IN THE RIDGE SAT AFTERNOON DUE TO A DEVELOPING
LOW MODELS SHOW NEAR 34N 138W SAT AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO INDUCES
SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE SWLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE REGION. WILL LEAVE
THE SLIGHT THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES SAT
AFTERNOON. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SAT NIGHT WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARING 130W BY EARLY SUN. AS THIS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INLAND...INCREASING CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN BY LATE SUN
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIDES ONSHORE AND
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES
SOUTH OF AROUND MT HOOD. AS THIS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG
A GENERALLY SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST PATH ACROSS THE REGION AND
THEN EAST OF THE CASCADES...EXPECT CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER
WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND MIDWEEK. WHILE SOME MODEST
DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN EVOLUTION BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION AND TIMING OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REMARKABLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE SHOWERY PATTERN ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH DRIER STABLE
N TO NW FLOW ALOFT. SHALLOW MARINE LAYER OVER THE PAC WILL KEEP
IFR STRATUS ON THE COAST JAMMED AGAINST THE COAST RANGE. TOPS
LIKELY IN 1000 TO 1200 FT RANGE. DO HAVE POCKETS OF STRATUS
EXTENDING INTO THE COAST RANGE AND UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER THIS
AM. STRATUS AT KKLS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING UPSTREAM...REACHING KPDX
AND KTTD ARUOND 12Z...THEN STRATUS WILL PUSH BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH
AGAINST THE CASCADES FOOTHILLS. BUT THOSE INLAND CLOUDS WILL BURN
OFF BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY WITH DRY STABLE AIR MASS ALOFT.
LIKE WED AM...LOW STRATUS WITH CIGS NEAR 800 FT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE N AROUND 12Z...BUT WILL BURN OUT BETWEEN 16Z AND 17Z. ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL. HIGH PRES REMAINS LOCKED OVER
THE NE PAC...WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENTS. SEAS CONTINUE AS A MIX OF W
AND SW SWELL TRAINS...BUT OVERALL SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 5 TO 6 FT
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 280520
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1020 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms decrease through sunset
Wednesday night, but the threat returns for the afternoon hours
on Thursday and Friday. However they will be more focused around
the mountains. Expect a warming trend into the weekend, with highs
in the 80s, with a lingering threat of mainly mountain showers
and thunderstorms. By next Monday and Tuesday the next best chance
of showers and thunderstorms arrives, with the potential for some
stronger storms and the return of cooler temperatures.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: the shower and thunderstorm threat is largely on
the wane. However there disturbances continue to pivot around the
exiting upper low. WV imagery shows the center of that exiting low
around eastern Idaho county (in lower panhandle of Idaho) this
hour. However disturbance rounding the backside of that low will
continue to provide some shower threat through the night. One wave
is dropping across southeast WA now. Another couple wave are
pushing toward the US/BC border. These latter two waves and at
least some indication of elevated instability through the night,
as well as trends on the HRRR suggest keeping some shower threat
going through the night across the northern mountains,
Spokane/C`dA area and Panhandle mountains. Though after 09Z-10Z
(2-3 AM) this threat may be on the wane as the waves leave the
main pool of potential elevated instability. Either way, I
continued the threat of showers going into the overnight the
aforementioned locations. I`m not as confident that there could be
any nocturnal thunder mixed in, so I left it out.

The remainder of the forecast looks generally on track. Only minor
tweaks to the Thursday afternoon/evening shower chances. With the
flow turning from northwest to westerly through tonight into
tomorrow this should help hold the main shower chances in the
mountains and closer to the WA/ID border eastward, leaving much of
the Basin dry. Yet there is still enough to say there is some
threat in the Spokane area into the higher Palouse, again with the
best chance closer to the Idaho border. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Isolated -shra remain a threat tonight over the
NE TAF sites (GEG to COE) as a disturbance drops in from the
north, interacting with some elevated instability. The threat that
a shower may pass a TAF site is small. Behind the showers in the
morning there could be some patchy fog, but it should be shallow
and short-lived and may not impact TAF sites. Additional showers
and thunderstorms are expected in afternoon heating Thursday.
Confidence is highest around the mountains, but some may pass the
TAF sites too. In this latter region confidence is highest closer
to the ID border. The threat will wane again after dark Thursday
night. /J. Cote`




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        52  79  57  82  59  85 /  20  10  10  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  49  78  54  82  56  83 /  20  20  20  30  20  20
Pullman        46  75  52  82  56  83 /  20  20  20  20  20  20
Lewiston       52  83  58  88  63  90 /  20  10  10  20  20  20
Colville       53  82  54  83  54  86 /  20  20  20  30  20  20
Sandpoint      50  78  51  81  52  80 /  20  20  20  30  20  20
Kellogg        47  76  49  81  53  81 /  20  40  40  30  30  20
Moses Lake     53  86  58  90  59  92 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      59  86  64  89  63  90 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           51  86  56  87  54  90 /  20  10  10  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 280520
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1020 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms decrease through sunset
Wednesday night, but the threat returns for the afternoon hours
on Thursday and Friday. However they will be more focused around
the mountains. Expect a warming trend into the weekend, with highs
in the 80s, with a lingering threat of mainly mountain showers
and thunderstorms. By next Monday and Tuesday the next best chance
of showers and thunderstorms arrives, with the potential for some
stronger storms and the return of cooler temperatures.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: the shower and thunderstorm threat is largely on
the wane. However there disturbances continue to pivot around the
exiting upper low. WV imagery shows the center of that exiting low
around eastern Idaho county (in lower panhandle of Idaho) this
hour. However disturbance rounding the backside of that low will
continue to provide some shower threat through the night. One wave
is dropping across southeast WA now. Another couple wave are
pushing toward the US/BC border. These latter two waves and at
least some indication of elevated instability through the night,
as well as trends on the HRRR suggest keeping some shower threat
going through the night across the northern mountains,
Spokane/C`dA area and Panhandle mountains. Though after 09Z-10Z
(2-3 AM) this threat may be on the wane as the waves leave the
main pool of potential elevated instability. Either way, I
continued the threat of showers going into the overnight the
aforementioned locations. I`m not as confident that there could be
any nocturnal thunder mixed in, so I left it out.

The remainder of the forecast looks generally on track. Only minor
tweaks to the Thursday afternoon/evening shower chances. With the
flow turning from northwest to westerly through tonight into
tomorrow this should help hold the main shower chances in the
mountains and closer to the WA/ID border eastward, leaving much of
the Basin dry. Yet there is still enough to say there is some
threat in the Spokane area into the higher Palouse, again with the
best chance closer to the Idaho border. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Isolated -shra remain a threat tonight over the
NE TAF sites (GEG to COE) as a disturbance drops in from the
north, interacting with some elevated instability. The threat that
a shower may pass a TAF site is small. Behind the showers in the
morning there could be some patchy fog, but it should be shallow
and short-lived and may not impact TAF sites. Additional showers
and thunderstorms are expected in afternoon heating Thursday.
Confidence is highest around the mountains, but some may pass the
TAF sites too. In this latter region confidence is highest closer
to the ID border. The threat will wane again after dark Thursday
night. /J. Cote`




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        52  79  57  82  59  85 /  20  10  10  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  49  78  54  82  56  83 /  20  20  20  30  20  20
Pullman        46  75  52  82  56  83 /  20  20  20  20  20  20
Lewiston       52  83  58  88  63  90 /  20  10  10  20  20  20
Colville       53  82  54  83  54  86 /  20  20  20  30  20  20
Sandpoint      50  78  51  81  52  80 /  20  20  20  30  20  20
Kellogg        47  76  49  81  53  81 /  20  40  40  30  30  20
Moses Lake     53  86  58  90  59  92 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      59  86  64  89  63  90 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           51  86  56  87  54  90 /  20  10  10  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSEW 280357
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY
SUNNY DAYS. AN UPPER LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE OVER THE CASCADES WITH
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP SHOWING LATE DAY CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY NEAR THE CASCADE CREST. A BATCH OF
THUNDERSTORMS DID MANAGE TO DRIFT SWD OUT OF B.C. INTO WHATCOM
COUNTY OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH SHORTLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS KEEP NEGATIVE
LI`S OVER THE UPPER W SLOPES OF THE CASCADES TO THE CREST THE NEXT
COUPLE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST BUT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT NEED TO BE ADDED NEAR THE CREST AND FAR
N. IT WILL REMAIN STABLE AND DRY ELSEWHERE.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY SWD ALONG THE B.C. COAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SHORT TERM AFFECT WILL BE TO MAINTAIN WEAK
ONSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING MARINE STRATUS ALONG COAST INTO
THE STRAIT AND THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. GRADIENTS ARE MARGINAL FOR BRINGING STRATUS BEYOND
THE FAR S SOUND INTO THE TACOMA/SEATTLE/BREMERTON AREAS. ASSUMING
EVEN A PARTIAL SHALLOW STRATUS PUSH...MODELS STILL SHOW 850MB TEMPS
WARMING FROM ABOUT +2 TO 3C THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SOME MIXING.
THE TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
INLAND...POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR 80 AROUND GREATER PUGET SOUND BY
FRIDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE STRENGTH OF ONSHORE FLOW AS A HEAVIER
MARINE INFLUENCE COULD HINDER HIGH TEMPERATURES. A MORE PRONOUNCED
MARINE PUSH IS LIKELY SOMETIME AROUND SUNDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND MORE CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AFTER SOME MORNING
LOW CLOUDS. HIGHS MIGHT EVEN WARM A LITTLE AS AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW EASES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER OREGON ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL COOL INTO THE
60S. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE SOUTH...CLOSE ENOUGH TO
KEEP SHOWERS AND CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE 60S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THINGS TO DRY OUT AND THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER IDAHO WILL GIVE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE WITH A MARINE LAYER OFFSHORE THAT WILL
PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS.

STRATUS BASES ALONG THE COAST ARE 008 MSL WITH VISIBILITIES
GENERALLY 5SM OR HIGHER. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE
THIS EVENING. THE 00Z NAM12 AND THE 02Z HRRR BOTH SHOW THE STRATUS
MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE GAPS IN THE TERRAIN MAKING IT EASTWARD TO
WHIDBEY ISLAND AND EVERETT ON THE NORTH AND TO AROUND KSEA ON THE
SOUTH. EXPECT CIGS 003 AT KSEA EARLY THU MORNING AND 1/2SM FOG AT
KPAE. ALL STRATUS AND FOG WILL BURN BACK TO THE COASTAL ZONES BY
18Z.  ALBRECHT

KSEA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. STRATUS WITH BASES 003 WILL TOUCH
THE TERMINAL FROM ABOUT 13Z TO 18Z. LIGHT NW WINDS EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL TURN SWLY TO 5 KT AFTER 08Z THEN WILL RETURN TO NWLY
ABOUT 20Z THU. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 140W COMBINED WITH LOWER
PRES E OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY
OR SATURDAY. THE FLOW THOUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN
DE FUCA WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. ONSHORE PRES
GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT FRI EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DROPS INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE NW. ALBRECHT


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
     UNTIL 1 AM PDT THURSDAY.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

















000
FXUS66 KSEW 280357
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY
SUNNY DAYS. AN UPPER LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE OVER THE CASCADES WITH
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP SHOWING LATE DAY CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY NEAR THE CASCADE CREST. A BATCH OF
THUNDERSTORMS DID MANAGE TO DRIFT SWD OUT OF B.C. INTO WHATCOM
COUNTY OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH SHORTLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS KEEP NEGATIVE
LI`S OVER THE UPPER W SLOPES OF THE CASCADES TO THE CREST THE NEXT
COUPLE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST BUT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT NEED TO BE ADDED NEAR THE CREST AND FAR
N. IT WILL REMAIN STABLE AND DRY ELSEWHERE.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY SWD ALONG THE B.C. COAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SHORT TERM AFFECT WILL BE TO MAINTAIN WEAK
ONSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING MARINE STRATUS ALONG COAST INTO
THE STRAIT AND THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. GRADIENTS ARE MARGINAL FOR BRINGING STRATUS BEYOND
THE FAR S SOUND INTO THE TACOMA/SEATTLE/BREMERTON AREAS. ASSUMING
EVEN A PARTIAL SHALLOW STRATUS PUSH...MODELS STILL SHOW 850MB TEMPS
WARMING FROM ABOUT +2 TO 3C THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SOME MIXING.
THE TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
INLAND...POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR 80 AROUND GREATER PUGET SOUND BY
FRIDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE STRENGTH OF ONSHORE FLOW AS A HEAVIER
MARINE INFLUENCE COULD HINDER HIGH TEMPERATURES. A MORE PRONOUNCED
MARINE PUSH IS LIKELY SOMETIME AROUND SUNDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND MORE CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AFTER SOME MORNING
LOW CLOUDS. HIGHS MIGHT EVEN WARM A LITTLE AS AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW EASES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER OREGON ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL COOL INTO THE
60S. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE SOUTH...CLOSE ENOUGH TO
KEEP SHOWERS AND CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE 60S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THINGS TO DRY OUT AND THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER IDAHO WILL GIVE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE WITH A MARINE LAYER OFFSHORE THAT WILL
PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS.

STRATUS BASES ALONG THE COAST ARE 008 MSL WITH VISIBILITIES
GENERALLY 5SM OR HIGHER. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE
THIS EVENING. THE 00Z NAM12 AND THE 02Z HRRR BOTH SHOW THE STRATUS
MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE GAPS IN THE TERRAIN MAKING IT EASTWARD TO
WHIDBEY ISLAND AND EVERETT ON THE NORTH AND TO AROUND KSEA ON THE
SOUTH. EXPECT CIGS 003 AT KSEA EARLY THU MORNING AND 1/2SM FOG AT
KPAE. ALL STRATUS AND FOG WILL BURN BACK TO THE COASTAL ZONES BY
18Z.  ALBRECHT

KSEA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. STRATUS WITH BASES 003 WILL TOUCH
THE TERMINAL FROM ABOUT 13Z TO 18Z. LIGHT NW WINDS EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL TURN SWLY TO 5 KT AFTER 08Z THEN WILL RETURN TO NWLY
ABOUT 20Z THU. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 140W COMBINED WITH LOWER
PRES E OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY
OR SATURDAY. THE FLOW THOUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN
DE FUCA WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. ONSHORE PRES
GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT FRI EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DROPS INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE NW. ALBRECHT


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
     UNTIL 1 AM PDT THURSDAY.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

















000
FXUS66 KSEW 280357
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY
SUNNY DAYS. AN UPPER LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE OVER THE CASCADES WITH
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP SHOWING LATE DAY CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY NEAR THE CASCADE CREST. A BATCH OF
THUNDERSTORMS DID MANAGE TO DRIFT SWD OUT OF B.C. INTO WHATCOM
COUNTY OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH SHORTLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS KEEP NEGATIVE
LI`S OVER THE UPPER W SLOPES OF THE CASCADES TO THE CREST THE NEXT
COUPLE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST BUT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT NEED TO BE ADDED NEAR THE CREST AND FAR
N. IT WILL REMAIN STABLE AND DRY ELSEWHERE.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY SWD ALONG THE B.C. COAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SHORT TERM AFFECT WILL BE TO MAINTAIN WEAK
ONSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING MARINE STRATUS ALONG COAST INTO
THE STRAIT AND THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. GRADIENTS ARE MARGINAL FOR BRINGING STRATUS BEYOND
THE FAR S SOUND INTO THE TACOMA/SEATTLE/BREMERTON AREAS. ASSUMING
EVEN A PARTIAL SHALLOW STRATUS PUSH...MODELS STILL SHOW 850MB TEMPS
WARMING FROM ABOUT +2 TO 3C THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SOME MIXING.
THE TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
INLAND...POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR 80 AROUND GREATER PUGET SOUND BY
FRIDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE STRENGTH OF ONSHORE FLOW AS A HEAVIER
MARINE INFLUENCE COULD HINDER HIGH TEMPERATURES. A MORE PRONOUNCED
MARINE PUSH IS LIKELY SOMETIME AROUND SUNDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND MORE CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AFTER SOME MORNING
LOW CLOUDS. HIGHS MIGHT EVEN WARM A LITTLE AS AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW EASES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER OREGON ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL COOL INTO THE
60S. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE SOUTH...CLOSE ENOUGH TO
KEEP SHOWERS AND CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE 60S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THINGS TO DRY OUT AND THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER IDAHO WILL GIVE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE WITH A MARINE LAYER OFFSHORE THAT WILL
PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS.

STRATUS BASES ALONG THE COAST ARE 008 MSL WITH VISIBILITIES
GENERALLY 5SM OR HIGHER. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE
THIS EVENING. THE 00Z NAM12 AND THE 02Z HRRR BOTH SHOW THE STRATUS
MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE GAPS IN THE TERRAIN MAKING IT EASTWARD TO
WHIDBEY ISLAND AND EVERETT ON THE NORTH AND TO AROUND KSEA ON THE
SOUTH. EXPECT CIGS 003 AT KSEA EARLY THU MORNING AND 1/2SM FOG AT
KPAE. ALL STRATUS AND FOG WILL BURN BACK TO THE COASTAL ZONES BY
18Z.  ALBRECHT

KSEA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. STRATUS WITH BASES 003 WILL TOUCH
THE TERMINAL FROM ABOUT 13Z TO 18Z. LIGHT NW WINDS EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL TURN SWLY TO 5 KT AFTER 08Z THEN WILL RETURN TO NWLY
ABOUT 20Z THU. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 140W COMBINED WITH LOWER
PRES E OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY
OR SATURDAY. THE FLOW THOUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN
DE FUCA WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. ONSHORE PRES
GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT FRI EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DROPS INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE NW. ALBRECHT


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
     UNTIL 1 AM PDT THURSDAY.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

















000
FXUS66 KSEW 280357
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY
SUNNY DAYS. AN UPPER LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE OVER THE CASCADES WITH
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP SHOWING LATE DAY CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY NEAR THE CASCADE CREST. A BATCH OF
THUNDERSTORMS DID MANAGE TO DRIFT SWD OUT OF B.C. INTO WHATCOM
COUNTY OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH SHORTLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS KEEP NEGATIVE
LI`S OVER THE UPPER W SLOPES OF THE CASCADES TO THE CREST THE NEXT
COUPLE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST BUT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT NEED TO BE ADDED NEAR THE CREST AND FAR
N. IT WILL REMAIN STABLE AND DRY ELSEWHERE.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY SWD ALONG THE B.C. COAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SHORT TERM AFFECT WILL BE TO MAINTAIN WEAK
ONSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING MARINE STRATUS ALONG COAST INTO
THE STRAIT AND THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. GRADIENTS ARE MARGINAL FOR BRINGING STRATUS BEYOND
THE FAR S SOUND INTO THE TACOMA/SEATTLE/BREMERTON AREAS. ASSUMING
EVEN A PARTIAL SHALLOW STRATUS PUSH...MODELS STILL SHOW 850MB TEMPS
WARMING FROM ABOUT +2 TO 3C THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SOME MIXING.
THE TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
INLAND...POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR 80 AROUND GREATER PUGET SOUND BY
FRIDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE STRENGTH OF ONSHORE FLOW AS A HEAVIER
MARINE INFLUENCE COULD HINDER HIGH TEMPERATURES. A MORE PRONOUNCED
MARINE PUSH IS LIKELY SOMETIME AROUND SUNDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND MORE CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AFTER SOME MORNING
LOW CLOUDS. HIGHS MIGHT EVEN WARM A LITTLE AS AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW EASES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER OREGON ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL COOL INTO THE
60S. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE SOUTH...CLOSE ENOUGH TO
KEEP SHOWERS AND CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE 60S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THINGS TO DRY OUT AND THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER IDAHO WILL GIVE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE WITH A MARINE LAYER OFFSHORE THAT WILL
PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS.

STRATUS BASES ALONG THE COAST ARE 008 MSL WITH VISIBILITIES
GENERALLY 5SM OR HIGHER. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE
THIS EVENING. THE 00Z NAM12 AND THE 02Z HRRR BOTH SHOW THE STRATUS
MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE GAPS IN THE TERRAIN MAKING IT EASTWARD TO
WHIDBEY ISLAND AND EVERETT ON THE NORTH AND TO AROUND KSEA ON THE
SOUTH. EXPECT CIGS 003 AT KSEA EARLY THU MORNING AND 1/2SM FOG AT
KPAE. ALL STRATUS AND FOG WILL BURN BACK TO THE COASTAL ZONES BY
18Z.  ALBRECHT

KSEA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. STRATUS WITH BASES 003 WILL TOUCH
THE TERMINAL FROM ABOUT 13Z TO 18Z. LIGHT NW WINDS EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL TURN SWLY TO 5 KT AFTER 08Z THEN WILL RETURN TO NWLY
ABOUT 20Z THU. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 140W COMBINED WITH LOWER
PRES E OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY
OR SATURDAY. THE FLOW THOUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN
DE FUCA WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. ONSHORE PRES
GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT FRI EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DROPS INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE NW. ALBRECHT


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
     UNTIL 1 AM PDT THURSDAY.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

















000
FXUS66 KSEW 280357
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY
SUNNY DAYS. AN UPPER LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE OVER THE CASCADES WITH
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP SHOWING LATE DAY CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY NEAR THE CASCADE CREST. A BATCH OF
THUNDERSTORMS DID MANAGE TO DRIFT SWD OUT OF B.C. INTO WHATCOM
COUNTY OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH SHORTLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS KEEP NEGATIVE
LI`S OVER THE UPPER W SLOPES OF THE CASCADES TO THE CREST THE NEXT
COUPLE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST BUT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT NEED TO BE ADDED NEAR THE CREST AND FAR
N. IT WILL REMAIN STABLE AND DRY ELSEWHERE.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY SWD ALONG THE B.C. COAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SHORT TERM AFFECT WILL BE TO MAINTAIN WEAK
ONSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING MARINE STRATUS ALONG COAST INTO
THE STRAIT AND THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. GRADIENTS ARE MARGINAL FOR BRINGING STRATUS BEYOND
THE FAR S SOUND INTO THE TACOMA/SEATTLE/BREMERTON AREAS. ASSUMING
EVEN A PARTIAL SHALLOW STRATUS PUSH...MODELS STILL SHOW 850MB TEMPS
WARMING FROM ABOUT +2 TO 3C THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SOME MIXING.
THE TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
INLAND...POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR 80 AROUND GREATER PUGET SOUND BY
FRIDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE STRENGTH OF ONSHORE FLOW AS A HEAVIER
MARINE INFLUENCE COULD HINDER HIGH TEMPERATURES. A MORE PRONOUNCED
MARINE PUSH IS LIKELY SOMETIME AROUND SUNDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND MORE CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AFTER SOME MORNING
LOW CLOUDS. HIGHS MIGHT EVEN WARM A LITTLE AS AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW EASES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER OREGON ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL COOL INTO THE
60S. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE SOUTH...CLOSE ENOUGH TO
KEEP SHOWERS AND CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE 60S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THINGS TO DRY OUT AND THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER IDAHO WILL GIVE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE WITH A MARINE LAYER OFFSHORE THAT WILL
PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS.

STRATUS BASES ALONG THE COAST ARE 008 MSL WITH VISIBILITIES
GENERALLY 5SM OR HIGHER. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE
THIS EVENING. THE 00Z NAM12 AND THE 02Z HRRR BOTH SHOW THE STRATUS
MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE GAPS IN THE TERRAIN MAKING IT EASTWARD TO
WHIDBEY ISLAND AND EVERETT ON THE NORTH AND TO AROUND KSEA ON THE
SOUTH. EXPECT CIGS 003 AT KSEA EARLY THU MORNING AND 1/2SM FOG AT
KPAE. ALL STRATUS AND FOG WILL BURN BACK TO THE COASTAL ZONES BY
18Z.  ALBRECHT

KSEA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. STRATUS WITH BASES 003 WILL TOUCH
THE TERMINAL FROM ABOUT 13Z TO 18Z. LIGHT NW WINDS EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL TURN SWLY TO 5 KT AFTER 08Z THEN WILL RETURN TO NWLY
ABOUT 20Z THU. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 140W COMBINED WITH LOWER
PRES E OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY
OR SATURDAY. THE FLOW THOUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN
DE FUCA WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. ONSHORE PRES
GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT FRI EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DROPS INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE NW. ALBRECHT


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
     UNTIL 1 AM PDT THURSDAY.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

















000
FXUS66 KSEW 280355
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY
SUNNY DAYS. AN UPPER LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE OVER THE CASCADES WITH
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP SHOWING LATE DAY CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY NEAR THE CASCADE CREST. A BATCH OF
THUNDERSTORMS DID MANAGE TO DRIFT SWD OUT OF B.C. INTO WHATCOM
COUNTY OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH SHORTLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS KEEP NEGATIVE
LI`S OVER THE UPPER W SLOPES OF THE CASCADES TO THE CREST THE NEXT
COUPLE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST BUT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT NEED TO BE ADDED NEAR THE CREST AND FAR
N. IT WILL REMAIN STABLE AND DRY ELSEWHERE.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY SWD ALONG THE B.C. COAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SHORT TERM AFFECT WILL BE BE TO MAINTAIN WEAK
ONSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING MARINE STRATUS ALONG COAST INTO
THE STRAIT AND THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. GRADIENTS ARE MARGINAL FOR BRINGING STRATUS BEYOND
THE FAR S SOUND INTO THE TACOMA/SEATTLE/BREMERTON AREAS. ASSUMING
EVEN A PARTIAL SHALLOW STRATUS PUSH...MODELS STILL SHOW 850MB TEMPS
WARMING FROM ABOUT +2 TO 3C THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SOME MIXING.
THE TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
INLAND...POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR 80 AROUND GREATER PUGET SOUND BY
FRIDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE STRENGTH OF ONSHORE FLOW AS A HEAVIER
MARINE INFLUENCE COULD HINDER HIGH TEMPERATURES. A MORE PRONOUNCED
MARINE PUSH IS LIKELY SOMETIME AROUND SUNDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND MORE CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AFTER SOME MORNING
LOW CLOUDS. HIGHS MIGHT EVEN WARM A LITTLE AS AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW EASES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER OREGON ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL COOL INTO THE
60S. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE SOUTH...CLOSE ENOUGH TO
KEEP SHOWERS AND CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE 60S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THINGS TO DRY OUT AND THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER IDAHO WILL GIVE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE WITH A MARINE LAYER OFFSHORE THAT WILL
PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS.

STRATUS BASES ALONG THE COAST ARE 008 MSL WITH VISIBILITIES
GENERALLY 5SM OR HIGHER. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE
THIS EVENING. THE 00Z NAM12 AND THE 02Z HRRR BOTH SHOW THE STRATUS
MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE GAPS IN THE TERRAIN MAKING IT EASTWARD TO
WHIDBEY ISLAND AND EVERETT ON THE NORTH AND TO AROUND KSEA ON THE
SOUTH. EXPECT CIGS 003 AT KSEA EARLY THU MORNING AND 1/2SM FOG AT
KPAE. ALL STRATUS AND FOG WILL BURN BACK TO THE COASTAL ZONES BY
18Z.  ALBRECHT

KSEA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. STRATUS WITH BASES 003 WILL TOUCH
THE TERMINAL FROM ABOUT 13Z TO 18Z. LIGHT NW WINDS EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL TURN SWLY TO 5 KT AFTER 08Z THEN WILL RETURN TO NWLY
ABOUT 20Z THU. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 140W COMBINED WITH LOWER
PRES E OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY
OR SATURDAY. THE FLOW THOUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN
DE FUCA WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. ONSHORE PRES
GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT FRI EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DROPS INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE NW. ALBRECHT


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
     UNTIL 1 AM PDT THURSDAY.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML













000
FXUS66 KSEW 280355
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY
SUNNY DAYS. AN UPPER LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE OVER THE CASCADES WITH
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP SHOWING LATE DAY CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY NEAR THE CASCADE CREST. A BATCH OF
THUNDERSTORMS DID MANAGE TO DRIFT SWD OUT OF B.C. INTO WHATCOM
COUNTY OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH SHORTLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS KEEP NEGATIVE
LI`S OVER THE UPPER W SLOPES OF THE CASCADES TO THE CREST THE NEXT
COUPLE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST BUT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT NEED TO BE ADDED NEAR THE CREST AND FAR
N. IT WILL REMAIN STABLE AND DRY ELSEWHERE.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY SWD ALONG THE B.C. COAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SHORT TERM AFFECT WILL BE BE TO MAINTAIN WEAK
ONSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING MARINE STRATUS ALONG COAST INTO
THE STRAIT AND THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. GRADIENTS ARE MARGINAL FOR BRINGING STRATUS BEYOND
THE FAR S SOUND INTO THE TACOMA/SEATTLE/BREMERTON AREAS. ASSUMING
EVEN A PARTIAL SHALLOW STRATUS PUSH...MODELS STILL SHOW 850MB TEMPS
WARMING FROM ABOUT +2 TO 3C THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SOME MIXING.
THE TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
INLAND...POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR 80 AROUND GREATER PUGET SOUND BY
FRIDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE STRENGTH OF ONSHORE FLOW AS A HEAVIER
MARINE INFLUENCE COULD HINDER HIGH TEMPERATURES. A MORE PRONOUNCED
MARINE PUSH IS LIKELY SOMETIME AROUND SUNDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND MORE CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AFTER SOME MORNING
LOW CLOUDS. HIGHS MIGHT EVEN WARM A LITTLE AS AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW EASES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER OREGON ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL COOL INTO THE
60S. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE SOUTH...CLOSE ENOUGH TO
KEEP SHOWERS AND CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE 60S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THINGS TO DRY OUT AND THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER IDAHO WILL GIVE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE WITH A MARINE LAYER OFFSHORE THAT WILL
PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS.

STRATUS BASES ALONG THE COAST ARE 008 MSL WITH VISIBILITIES
GENERALLY 5SM OR HIGHER. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE
THIS EVENING. THE 00Z NAM12 AND THE 02Z HRRR BOTH SHOW THE STRATUS
MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE GAPS IN THE TERRAIN MAKING IT EASTWARD TO
WHIDBEY ISLAND AND EVERETT ON THE NORTH AND TO AROUND KSEA ON THE
SOUTH. EXPECT CIGS 003 AT KSEA EARLY THU MORNING AND 1/2SM FOG AT
KPAE. ALL STRATUS AND FOG WILL BURN BACK TO THE COASTAL ZONES BY
18Z.  ALBRECHT

KSEA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. STRATUS WITH BASES 003 WILL TOUCH
THE TERMINAL FROM ABOUT 13Z TO 18Z. LIGHT NW WINDS EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL TURN SWLY TO 5 KT AFTER 08Z THEN WILL RETURN TO NWLY
ABOUT 20Z THU. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 140W COMBINED WITH LOWER
PRES E OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY
OR SATURDAY. THE FLOW THOUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN
DE FUCA WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. ONSHORE PRES
GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT FRI EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DROPS INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE NW. ALBRECHT


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
     UNTIL 1 AM PDT THURSDAY.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML













000
FXUS66 KSEW 280355
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY
SUNNY DAYS. AN UPPER LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE OVER THE CASCADES WITH
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP SHOWING LATE DAY CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY NEAR THE CASCADE CREST. A BATCH OF
THUNDERSTORMS DID MANAGE TO DRIFT SWD OUT OF B.C. INTO WHATCOM
COUNTY OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH SHORTLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS KEEP NEGATIVE
LI`S OVER THE UPPER W SLOPES OF THE CASCADES TO THE CREST THE NEXT
COUPLE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST BUT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT NEED TO BE ADDED NEAR THE CREST AND FAR
N. IT WILL REMAIN STABLE AND DRY ELSEWHERE.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY SWD ALONG THE B.C. COAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SHORT TERM AFFECT WILL BE BE TO MAINTAIN WEAK
ONSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING MARINE STRATUS ALONG COAST INTO
THE STRAIT AND THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. GRADIENTS ARE MARGINAL FOR BRINGING STRATUS BEYOND
THE FAR S SOUND INTO THE TACOMA/SEATTLE/BREMERTON AREAS. ASSUMING
EVEN A PARTIAL SHALLOW STRATUS PUSH...MODELS STILL SHOW 850MB TEMPS
WARMING FROM ABOUT +2 TO 3C THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SOME MIXING.
THE TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
INLAND...POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR 80 AROUND GREATER PUGET SOUND BY
FRIDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE STRENGTH OF ONSHORE FLOW AS A HEAVIER
MARINE INFLUENCE COULD HINDER HIGH TEMPERATURES. A MORE PRONOUNCED
MARINE PUSH IS LIKELY SOMETIME AROUND SUNDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND MORE CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AFTER SOME MORNING
LOW CLOUDS. HIGHS MIGHT EVEN WARM A LITTLE AS AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW EASES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER OREGON ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL COOL INTO THE
60S. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE SOUTH...CLOSE ENOUGH TO
KEEP SHOWERS AND CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE 60S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THINGS TO DRY OUT AND THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER IDAHO WILL GIVE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE WITH A MARINE LAYER OFFSHORE THAT WILL
PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS.

STRATUS BASES ALONG THE COAST ARE 008 MSL WITH VISIBILITIES
GENERALLY 5SM OR HIGHER. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE
THIS EVENING. THE 00Z NAM12 AND THE 02Z HRRR BOTH SHOW THE STRATUS
MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE GAPS IN THE TERRAIN MAKING IT EASTWARD TO
WHIDBEY ISLAND AND EVERETT ON THE NORTH AND TO AROUND KSEA ON THE
SOUTH. EXPECT CIGS 003 AT KSEA EARLY THU MORNING AND 1/2SM FOG AT
KPAE. ALL STRATUS AND FOG WILL BURN BACK TO THE COASTAL ZONES BY
18Z.  ALBRECHT

KSEA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. STRATUS WITH BASES 003 WILL TOUCH
THE TERMINAL FROM ABOUT 13Z TO 18Z. LIGHT NW WINDS EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL TURN SWLY TO 5 KT AFTER 08Z THEN WILL RETURN TO NWLY
ABOUT 20Z THU. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 140W COMBINED WITH LOWER
PRES E OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY
OR SATURDAY. THE FLOW THOUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN
DE FUCA WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. ONSHORE PRES
GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT FRI EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DROPS INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE NW. ALBRECHT


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
     UNTIL 1 AM PDT THURSDAY.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML













000
FXUS66 KSEW 280355
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY
SUNNY DAYS. AN UPPER LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE OVER THE CASCADES WITH
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP SHOWING LATE DAY CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY NEAR THE CASCADE CREST. A BATCH OF
THUNDERSTORMS DID MANAGE TO DRIFT SWD OUT OF B.C. INTO WHATCOM
COUNTY OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH SHORTLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS KEEP NEGATIVE
LI`S OVER THE UPPER W SLOPES OF THE CASCADES TO THE CREST THE NEXT
COUPLE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST BUT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT NEED TO BE ADDED NEAR THE CREST AND FAR
N. IT WILL REMAIN STABLE AND DRY ELSEWHERE.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY SWD ALONG THE B.C. COAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SHORT TERM AFFECT WILL BE BE TO MAINTAIN WEAK
ONSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING MARINE STRATUS ALONG COAST INTO
THE STRAIT AND THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. GRADIENTS ARE MARGINAL FOR BRINGING STRATUS BEYOND
THE FAR S SOUND INTO THE TACOMA/SEATTLE/BREMERTON AREAS. ASSUMING
EVEN A PARTIAL SHALLOW STRATUS PUSH...MODELS STILL SHOW 850MB TEMPS
WARMING FROM ABOUT +2 TO 3C THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SOME MIXING.
THE TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
INLAND...POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR 80 AROUND GREATER PUGET SOUND BY
FRIDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE STRENGTH OF ONSHORE FLOW AS A HEAVIER
MARINE INFLUENCE COULD HINDER HIGH TEMPERATURES. A MORE PRONOUNCED
MARINE PUSH IS LIKELY SOMETIME AROUND SUNDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND MORE CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AFTER SOME MORNING
LOW CLOUDS. HIGHS MIGHT EVEN WARM A LITTLE AS AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW EASES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER OREGON ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL COOL INTO THE
60S. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE SOUTH...CLOSE ENOUGH TO
KEEP SHOWERS AND CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE 60S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THINGS TO DRY OUT AND THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER IDAHO WILL GIVE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE WITH A MARINE LAYER OFFSHORE THAT WILL
PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS.

STRATUS BASES ALONG THE COAST ARE 008 MSL WITH VISIBILITIES
GENERALLY 5SM OR HIGHER. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE
THIS EVENING. THE 00Z NAM12 AND THE 02Z HRRR BOTH SHOW THE STRATUS
MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE GAPS IN THE TERRAIN MAKING IT EASTWARD TO
WHIDBEY ISLAND AND EVERETT ON THE NORTH AND TO AROUND KSEA ON THE
SOUTH. EXPECT CIGS 003 AT KSEA EARLY THU MORNING AND 1/2SM FOG AT
KPAE. ALL STRATUS AND FOG WILL BURN BACK TO THE COASTAL ZONES BY
18Z.  ALBRECHT

KSEA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. STRATUS WITH BASES 003 WILL TOUCH
THE TERMINAL FROM ABOUT 13Z TO 18Z. LIGHT NW WINDS EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL TURN SWLY TO 5 KT AFTER 08Z THEN WILL RETURN TO NWLY
ABOUT 20Z THU. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 140W COMBINED WITH LOWER
PRES E OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY
OR SATURDAY. THE FLOW THOUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN
DE FUCA WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. ONSHORE PRES
GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT FRI EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DROPS INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE NW. ALBRECHT


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
     UNTIL 1 AM PDT THURSDAY.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML













000
FXUS66 KPQR 280343 RRA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
837 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015


.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE PAC NW
FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS IS NOW CENTERED OVER WRN IDAHO. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH GRADUALLY EASTWARD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND
THU. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND...BRINGING A WARMER
AND DRIER AIR MASS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW LATE LATE SUN INTO
MON...BRINGING COOLER TEMPS AND A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...SOME THUNDERSTORMS FIRED UP OVER THE SOUTH WA CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT IS NOW ON THE DECREASE.WHILE
THE LOW IS FURTHER INLAND THAN TUE A SHORTWAVE DROPPED INTO EASTERN
WA THIS AFTERNOON BRINING MORE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COMPARED TO THE
NWLY FLOW TUE. MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER
SKAMANIA COUNTY SHOWED THIN CAPE ABOVE THE MOIST LAYER AROUND 850 MB.
  MARGINAL INSTABILITY RETURNS OVER THE CASCADES THU AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE MORE LIMITED THAN TODAY AND THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WIND ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION NEAR AND EAST OF THE
CASCADE CREST.

A MILD EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S INLAND. THE MARINE LAYER IS WORKING ITS WAY ONSHORE
WITH CLOUDY SKIES AT THE COAST AND TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE MID
50S.  SHOULD SEE STRATUS SEEP INLAND OVERNIGHT INTO THU
MORNING...PARTICULARLY ON THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO THE PORTLAND
AREA AND SOME IN THE  SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. HOWEVER WITH THE
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THERE WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW.
/26

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SHORT TERM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE PERSISTENT CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE PAC NW FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS
NOW CENTERED OVER WRN IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING UNDER
THE COLD LOW OVER ERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ALONG THE CREST
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
AGAIN REMAIN EAST OF THE CREST. OTHERWISE...A VERY NICE DAY IS
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE THINNER MARINE STRATUS LAYER TODAY
BURNED OFF QUITE A BIT SOONER THAN WE SAW THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...ALTHOUGH SOME STRATOCUMULUS HAVE FORMED OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME LOW LEVEL MIXING. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST EVERYONE IN THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS...WHILE THE COAST WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH NORTHWESTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW.

THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT FURTHER EAST TONIGHT AND THU. THIS WILL
ALLOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO PUSH TOWARD THE PAC NW...BRINGING A
GRADUALLY WARMER AND DRIER AIR MASS TO THE REGION. EXPECT THE MARINE
STRATUS TO PUSH TO BE EVEN WEAKER TONIGHT...WITH THE MAJORITY OF
INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS REMAINING CLOUD FREE. 850 MB TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 13 TO 15 C TOMORROW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
AFTER HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS.
THE COAST WILL AGAIN STAY COOLER WITH THE NW LOW LEVEL FLOW.

THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR FRI AND SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED OUT
SOMEWHAT BY A LOW MOVING IN TO THE NORTH OVER B.C. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MAY MOVE BRING SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE FLOW ON
FRI...BUT EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACT TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRI
AND SAT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THU WITH INTERIOR HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ALONG THE CASCADE
CREST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY. THE BEST
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON FRI AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SAT NIGHT WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARING 130W BY EARLY SUN. AS THIS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INLAND...INCREASING CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN BY LATE SUN
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIDES ONSHORE AND
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES
SOUTH OF AROUND MT HOOD. AS THIS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG
A GENERALLY SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST PATH ACROSS THE REGION AND
THEN EAST OF THE CASCADES...EXPECT CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER
WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND MIDWEEK. WHILE SOME MODEST
DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN EVOLUTION BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION AND TIMING OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REMARKABLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE SHOWERY PATTERN ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&

.AVIATION...THE SUMMERTIME STRATUS PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CIGS HAVE DROPPED MOSTLY TO IFR ALONG THE
COAST AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CIGS
PRESENT INLAND WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING. MVFR STRATUS
LOOKS TO PUSH INLAND THU MORNING WITH MORE SKY COVER IN THE NORTH
AND SOUTH VALLEY WITH LESS CHANCE OF CIGS AROUND SALEM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH SCT TO BKN CIG
AROUND 1000 FT DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING
HOW MUCH MVFR SKY COVER THERE WILL BE. EITHER WAY...CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY AROUND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MILD
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRES OFFSHORE
AND LOW PRES OVER THE INLAND PAC NW. EXPECT N TO NW WINDS TO
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF ISOLATED GUSTS ABOVE 21 KT ARE POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF NEWPORT IN THE EVENING. MIXED SEAS BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COULD BECOME CHOPPY AT TIMES
DUE TO THE FRESH NW SWELL BEING GENERATED OFF OF BC. THE SW SWELL
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINATE SWELL ON FRI. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 280343 RRA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
837 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015


.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE PAC NW
FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS IS NOW CENTERED OVER WRN IDAHO. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH GRADUALLY EASTWARD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND
THU. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND...BRINGING A WARMER
AND DRIER AIR MASS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW LATE LATE SUN INTO
MON...BRINGING COOLER TEMPS AND A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...SOME THUNDERSTORMS FIRED UP OVER THE SOUTH WA CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT IS NOW ON THE DECREASE.WHILE
THE LOW IS FURTHER INLAND THAN TUE A SHORTWAVE DROPPED INTO EASTERN
WA THIS AFTERNOON BRINING MORE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COMPARED TO THE
NWLY FLOW TUE. MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER
SKAMANIA COUNTY SHOWED THIN CAPE ABOVE THE MOIST LAYER AROUND 850 MB.
  MARGINAL INSTABILITY RETURNS OVER THE CASCADES THU AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE MORE LIMITED THAN TODAY AND THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WIND ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION NEAR AND EAST OF THE
CASCADE CREST.

A MILD EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S INLAND. THE MARINE LAYER IS WORKING ITS WAY ONSHORE
WITH CLOUDY SKIES AT THE COAST AND TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE MID
50S.  SHOULD SEE STRATUS SEEP INLAND OVERNIGHT INTO THU
MORNING...PARTICULARLY ON THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO THE PORTLAND
AREA AND SOME IN THE  SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. HOWEVER WITH THE
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THERE WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW.
/26

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SHORT TERM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE PERSISTENT CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE PAC NW FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS
NOW CENTERED OVER WRN IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING UNDER
THE COLD LOW OVER ERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ALONG THE CREST
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
AGAIN REMAIN EAST OF THE CREST. OTHERWISE...A VERY NICE DAY IS
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE THINNER MARINE STRATUS LAYER TODAY
BURNED OFF QUITE A BIT SOONER THAN WE SAW THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...ALTHOUGH SOME STRATOCUMULUS HAVE FORMED OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME LOW LEVEL MIXING. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST EVERYONE IN THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS...WHILE THE COAST WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH NORTHWESTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW.

THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT FURTHER EAST TONIGHT AND THU. THIS WILL
ALLOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO PUSH TOWARD THE PAC NW...BRINGING A
GRADUALLY WARMER AND DRIER AIR MASS TO THE REGION. EXPECT THE MARINE
STRATUS TO PUSH TO BE EVEN WEAKER TONIGHT...WITH THE MAJORITY OF
INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS REMAINING CLOUD FREE. 850 MB TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 13 TO 15 C TOMORROW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
AFTER HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS.
THE COAST WILL AGAIN STAY COOLER WITH THE NW LOW LEVEL FLOW.

THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR FRI AND SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED OUT
SOMEWHAT BY A LOW MOVING IN TO THE NORTH OVER B.C. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MAY MOVE BRING SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE FLOW ON
FRI...BUT EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACT TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRI
AND SAT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THU WITH INTERIOR HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ALONG THE CASCADE
CREST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY. THE BEST
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON FRI AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SAT NIGHT WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARING 130W BY EARLY SUN. AS THIS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INLAND...INCREASING CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN BY LATE SUN
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIDES ONSHORE AND
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES
SOUTH OF AROUND MT HOOD. AS THIS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG
A GENERALLY SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST PATH ACROSS THE REGION AND
THEN EAST OF THE CASCADES...EXPECT CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER
WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND MIDWEEK. WHILE SOME MODEST
DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN EVOLUTION BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION AND TIMING OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REMARKABLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE SHOWERY PATTERN ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&

.AVIATION...THE SUMMERTIME STRATUS PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CIGS HAVE DROPPED MOSTLY TO IFR ALONG THE
COAST AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CIGS
PRESENT INLAND WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING. MVFR STRATUS
LOOKS TO PUSH INLAND THU MORNING WITH MORE SKY COVER IN THE NORTH
AND SOUTH VALLEY WITH LESS CHANCE OF CIGS AROUND SALEM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH SCT TO BKN CIG
AROUND 1000 FT DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING
HOW MUCH MVFR SKY COVER THERE WILL BE. EITHER WAY...CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY AROUND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MILD
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRES OFFSHORE
AND LOW PRES OVER THE INLAND PAC NW. EXPECT N TO NW WINDS TO
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF ISOLATED GUSTS ABOVE 21 KT ARE POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF NEWPORT IN THE EVENING. MIXED SEAS BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COULD BECOME CHOPPY AT TIMES
DUE TO THE FRESH NW SWELL BEING GENERATED OFF OF BC. THE SW SWELL
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINATE SWELL ON FRI. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 280343 RRA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
837 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015


.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE PAC NW
FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS IS NOW CENTERED OVER WRN IDAHO. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH GRADUALLY EASTWARD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND
THU. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND...BRINGING A WARMER
AND DRIER AIR MASS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW LATE LATE SUN INTO
MON...BRINGING COOLER TEMPS AND A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...SOME THUNDERSTORMS FIRED UP OVER THE SOUTH WA CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT IS NOW ON THE DECREASE.WHILE
THE LOW IS FURTHER INLAND THAN TUE A SHORTWAVE DROPPED INTO EASTERN
WA THIS AFTERNOON BRINING MORE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COMPARED TO THE
NWLY FLOW TUE. MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER
SKAMANIA COUNTY SHOWED THIN CAPE ABOVE THE MOIST LAYER AROUND 850 MB.
  MARGINAL INSTABILITY RETURNS OVER THE CASCADES THU AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE MORE LIMITED THAN TODAY AND THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WIND ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION NEAR AND EAST OF THE
CASCADE CREST.

A MILD EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S INLAND. THE MARINE LAYER IS WORKING ITS WAY ONSHORE
WITH CLOUDY SKIES AT THE COAST AND TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE MID
50S.  SHOULD SEE STRATUS SEEP INLAND OVERNIGHT INTO THU
MORNING...PARTICULARLY ON THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO THE PORTLAND
AREA AND SOME IN THE  SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. HOWEVER WITH THE
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THERE WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW.
/26

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SHORT TERM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE PERSISTENT CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE PAC NW FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS
NOW CENTERED OVER WRN IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING UNDER
THE COLD LOW OVER ERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ALONG THE CREST
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
AGAIN REMAIN EAST OF THE CREST. OTHERWISE...A VERY NICE DAY IS
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE THINNER MARINE STRATUS LAYER TODAY
BURNED OFF QUITE A BIT SOONER THAN WE SAW THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...ALTHOUGH SOME STRATOCUMULUS HAVE FORMED OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME LOW LEVEL MIXING. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST EVERYONE IN THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS...WHILE THE COAST WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH NORTHWESTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW.

THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT FURTHER EAST TONIGHT AND THU. THIS WILL
ALLOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO PUSH TOWARD THE PAC NW...BRINGING A
GRADUALLY WARMER AND DRIER AIR MASS TO THE REGION. EXPECT THE MARINE
STRATUS TO PUSH TO BE EVEN WEAKER TONIGHT...WITH THE MAJORITY OF
INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS REMAINING CLOUD FREE. 850 MB TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 13 TO 15 C TOMORROW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
AFTER HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS.
THE COAST WILL AGAIN STAY COOLER WITH THE NW LOW LEVEL FLOW.

THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR FRI AND SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED OUT
SOMEWHAT BY A LOW MOVING IN TO THE NORTH OVER B.C. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MAY MOVE BRING SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE FLOW ON
FRI...BUT EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACT TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRI
AND SAT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THU WITH INTERIOR HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ALONG THE CASCADE
CREST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY. THE BEST
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON FRI AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SAT NIGHT WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARING 130W BY EARLY SUN. AS THIS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INLAND...INCREASING CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN BY LATE SUN
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIDES ONSHORE AND
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES
SOUTH OF AROUND MT HOOD. AS THIS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG
A GENERALLY SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST PATH ACROSS THE REGION AND
THEN EAST OF THE CASCADES...EXPECT CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER
WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND MIDWEEK. WHILE SOME MODEST
DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN EVOLUTION BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION AND TIMING OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REMARKABLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE SHOWERY PATTERN ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&

.AVIATION...THE SUMMERTIME STRATUS PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CIGS HAVE DROPPED MOSTLY TO IFR ALONG THE
COAST AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CIGS
PRESENT INLAND WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING. MVFR STRATUS
LOOKS TO PUSH INLAND THU MORNING WITH MORE SKY COVER IN THE NORTH
AND SOUTH VALLEY WITH LESS CHANCE OF CIGS AROUND SALEM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH SCT TO BKN CIG
AROUND 1000 FT DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING
HOW MUCH MVFR SKY COVER THERE WILL BE. EITHER WAY...CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY AROUND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MILD
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRES OFFSHORE
AND LOW PRES OVER THE INLAND PAC NW. EXPECT N TO NW WINDS TO
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF ISOLATED GUSTS ABOVE 21 KT ARE POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF NEWPORT IN THE EVENING. MIXED SEAS BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COULD BECOME CHOPPY AT TIMES
DUE TO THE FRESH NW SWELL BEING GENERATED OFF OF BC. THE SW SWELL
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINATE SWELL ON FRI. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 280343 RRA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
837 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015


.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE PAC NW
FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS IS NOW CENTERED OVER WRN IDAHO. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH GRADUALLY EASTWARD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND
THU. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND...BRINGING A WARMER
AND DRIER AIR MASS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW LATE LATE SUN INTO
MON...BRINGING COOLER TEMPS AND A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...SOME THUNDERSTORMS FIRED UP OVER THE SOUTH WA CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT IS NOW ON THE DECREASE.WHILE
THE LOW IS FURTHER INLAND THAN TUE A SHORTWAVE DROPPED INTO EASTERN
WA THIS AFTERNOON BRINING MORE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COMPARED TO THE
NWLY FLOW TUE. MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER
SKAMANIA COUNTY SHOWED THIN CAPE ABOVE THE MOIST LAYER AROUND 850 MB.
  MARGINAL INSTABILITY RETURNS OVER THE CASCADES THU AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE MORE LIMITED THAN TODAY AND THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WIND ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION NEAR AND EAST OF THE
CASCADE CREST.

A MILD EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S INLAND. THE MARINE LAYER IS WORKING ITS WAY ONSHORE
WITH CLOUDY SKIES AT THE COAST AND TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE MID
50S.  SHOULD SEE STRATUS SEEP INLAND OVERNIGHT INTO THU
MORNING...PARTICULARLY ON THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO THE PORTLAND
AREA AND SOME IN THE  SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. HOWEVER WITH THE
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THERE WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW.
/26

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SHORT TERM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE PERSISTENT CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE PAC NW FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS
NOW CENTERED OVER WRN IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING UNDER
THE COLD LOW OVER ERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ALONG THE CREST
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
AGAIN REMAIN EAST OF THE CREST. OTHERWISE...A VERY NICE DAY IS
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE THINNER MARINE STRATUS LAYER TODAY
BURNED OFF QUITE A BIT SOONER THAN WE SAW THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...ALTHOUGH SOME STRATOCUMULUS HAVE FORMED OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME LOW LEVEL MIXING. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST EVERYONE IN THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS...WHILE THE COAST WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH NORTHWESTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW.

THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT FURTHER EAST TONIGHT AND THU. THIS WILL
ALLOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO PUSH TOWARD THE PAC NW...BRINGING A
GRADUALLY WARMER AND DRIER AIR MASS TO THE REGION. EXPECT THE MARINE
STRATUS TO PUSH TO BE EVEN WEAKER TONIGHT...WITH THE MAJORITY OF
INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS REMAINING CLOUD FREE. 850 MB TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 13 TO 15 C TOMORROW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
AFTER HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS.
THE COAST WILL AGAIN STAY COOLER WITH THE NW LOW LEVEL FLOW.

THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR FRI AND SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED OUT
SOMEWHAT BY A LOW MOVING IN TO THE NORTH OVER B.C. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MAY MOVE BRING SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE FLOW ON
FRI...BUT EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACT TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRI
AND SAT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THU WITH INTERIOR HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ALONG THE CASCADE
CREST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY. THE BEST
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON FRI AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SAT NIGHT WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARING 130W BY EARLY SUN. AS THIS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INLAND...INCREASING CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN BY LATE SUN
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIDES ONSHORE AND
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES
SOUTH OF AROUND MT HOOD. AS THIS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG
A GENERALLY SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST PATH ACROSS THE REGION AND
THEN EAST OF THE CASCADES...EXPECT CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER
WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND MIDWEEK. WHILE SOME MODEST
DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN EVOLUTION BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION AND TIMING OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REMARKABLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE SHOWERY PATTERN ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&

.AVIATION...THE SUMMERTIME STRATUS PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CIGS HAVE DROPPED MOSTLY TO IFR ALONG THE
COAST AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CIGS
PRESENT INLAND WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING. MVFR STRATUS
LOOKS TO PUSH INLAND THU MORNING WITH MORE SKY COVER IN THE NORTH
AND SOUTH VALLEY WITH LESS CHANCE OF CIGS AROUND SALEM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH SCT TO BKN CIG
AROUND 1000 FT DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING
HOW MUCH MVFR SKY COVER THERE WILL BE. EITHER WAY...CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY AROUND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MILD
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRES OFFSHORE
AND LOW PRES OVER THE INLAND PAC NW. EXPECT N TO NW WINDS TO
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF ISOLATED GUSTS ABOVE 21 KT ARE POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF NEWPORT IN THE EVENING. MIXED SEAS BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COULD BECOME CHOPPY AT TIMES
DUE TO THE FRESH NW SWELL BEING GENERATED OFF OF BC. THE SW SWELL
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINATE SWELL ON FRI. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 280343 RRA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
837 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015


.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE PAC NW
FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS IS NOW CENTERED OVER WRN IDAHO. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH GRADUALLY EASTWARD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND
THU. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND...BRINGING A WARMER
AND DRIER AIR MASS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW LATE LATE SUN INTO
MON...BRINGING COOLER TEMPS AND A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...SOME THUNDERSTORMS FIRED UP OVER THE SOUTH WA CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT IS NOW ON THE DECREASE.WHILE
THE LOW IS FURTHER INLAND THAN TUE A SHORTWAVE DROPPED INTO EASTERN
WA THIS AFTERNOON BRINING MORE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COMPARED TO THE
NWLY FLOW TUE. MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER
SKAMANIA COUNTY SHOWED THIN CAPE ABOVE THE MOIST LAYER AROUND 850 MB.
  MARGINAL INSTABILITY RETURNS OVER THE CASCADES THU AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE MORE LIMITED THAN TODAY AND THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WIND ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION NEAR AND EAST OF THE
CASCADE CREST.

A MILD EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S INLAND. THE MARINE LAYER IS WORKING ITS WAY ONSHORE
WITH CLOUDY SKIES AT THE COAST AND TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE MID
50S.  SHOULD SEE STRATUS SEEP INLAND OVERNIGHT INTO THU
MORNING...PARTICULARLY ON THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO THE PORTLAND
AREA AND SOME IN THE  SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. HOWEVER WITH THE
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THERE WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW.
/26

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SHORT TERM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE PERSISTENT CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE PAC NW FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS
NOW CENTERED OVER WRN IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING UNDER
THE COLD LOW OVER ERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ALONG THE CREST
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
AGAIN REMAIN EAST OF THE CREST. OTHERWISE...A VERY NICE DAY IS
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE THINNER MARINE STRATUS LAYER TODAY
BURNED OFF QUITE A BIT SOONER THAN WE SAW THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...ALTHOUGH SOME STRATOCUMULUS HAVE FORMED OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME LOW LEVEL MIXING. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST EVERYONE IN THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS...WHILE THE COAST WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH NORTHWESTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW.

THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT FURTHER EAST TONIGHT AND THU. THIS WILL
ALLOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO PUSH TOWARD THE PAC NW...BRINGING A
GRADUALLY WARMER AND DRIER AIR MASS TO THE REGION. EXPECT THE MARINE
STRATUS TO PUSH TO BE EVEN WEAKER TONIGHT...WITH THE MAJORITY OF
INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS REMAINING CLOUD FREE. 850 MB TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 13 TO 15 C TOMORROW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
AFTER HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS.
THE COAST WILL AGAIN STAY COOLER WITH THE NW LOW LEVEL FLOW.

THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR FRI AND SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED OUT
SOMEWHAT BY A LOW MOVING IN TO THE NORTH OVER B.C. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MAY MOVE BRING SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE FLOW ON
FRI...BUT EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACT TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRI
AND SAT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THU WITH INTERIOR HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ALONG THE CASCADE
CREST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY. THE BEST
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON FRI AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SAT NIGHT WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARING 130W BY EARLY SUN. AS THIS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INLAND...INCREASING CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN BY LATE SUN
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIDES ONSHORE AND
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES
SOUTH OF AROUND MT HOOD. AS THIS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG
A GENERALLY SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST PATH ACROSS THE REGION AND
THEN EAST OF THE CASCADES...EXPECT CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER
WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND MIDWEEK. WHILE SOME MODEST
DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN EVOLUTION BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION AND TIMING OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REMARKABLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE SHOWERY PATTERN ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&

.AVIATION...THE SUMMERTIME STRATUS PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CIGS HAVE DROPPED MOSTLY TO IFR ALONG THE
COAST AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CIGS
PRESENT INLAND WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING. MVFR STRATUS
LOOKS TO PUSH INLAND THU MORNING WITH MORE SKY COVER IN THE NORTH
AND SOUTH VALLEY WITH LESS CHANCE OF CIGS AROUND SALEM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH SCT TO BKN CIG
AROUND 1000 FT DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING
HOW MUCH MVFR SKY COVER THERE WILL BE. EITHER WAY...CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY AROUND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MILD
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRES OFFSHORE
AND LOW PRES OVER THE INLAND PAC NW. EXPECT N TO NW WINDS TO
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF ISOLATED GUSTS ABOVE 21 KT ARE POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF NEWPORT IN THE EVENING. MIXED SEAS BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COULD BECOME CHOPPY AT TIMES
DUE TO THE FRESH NW SWELL BEING GENERATED OFF OF BC. THE SW SWELL
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINATE SWELL ON FRI. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 280310
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
810 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms decrease through sunset
Wednesday night, but the threat returns for the afternoon hours
on Thursday and Friday. However they will be more focused around
the mountains. Expect a warming trend into the weekend, with highs
in the 80s, with a lingering threat of mainly mountain showers
and thunderstorms. By next Monday and Tuesday the next best chance
of showers and thunderstorms arrives, with the potential for some
stronger storms and the return of cooler temperatures.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: the shower and thunderstorm threat is largely on
the wane. However there disturbances continue to pivot around the
exiting upper low. WV imagery shows the center of that exiting low
around eastern Idaho county (in lower panhandle of Idaho) this
hour. However disturbance rounding the backside of that low will
continue to provide some shower threat through the night. One wave
is dropping across southeast WA now. Another couple wave are
pushing toward the US/BC border. These latter two waves and at
least some indication of elevated instability through the night,
as well as trends on the HRRR suggest keeping some shower threat
going through the night across the northern mountains,
Spokane/C`dA area and Panhandle mountains. Though after 09Z-10Z
(2-3 AM) this threat may be on the wane as the waves leave the
main pool of potential elevated instability. Either way, I
continued the threat of showers going into the overnight the
aforementioned locations. I`m not as confident that there could be
any nocturnal thunder mixed in, so I left it out.

The remainder of the forecast looks generally on track. Only minor
tweaks to the Thursday afternoon/evening shower chances. With the
flow turning from northwest to westerly through tonight into
tomorrow this should help hold the main shower chances in the
mountains and closer to the WA/ID border eastward, leaving much of
the Basin dry. Yet there is still enough to say there is some
threat in the Spokane area into the higher Palouse, again with the
best chance closer to the Idaho border. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Isold to sct -shra/-tsra will be possible across much
of the region, with the best chance before 03Z. Thereafter the
main threat will dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. There
may be some lingering showers chances into the early overnight
between MWH, GEG, SFF, COE with the potential for the left over
showers over the northern mountains to drift south, before
abating but confidence is low.  The threat of showers/t-storms
will be renewed Thursday afternoon, with the main chances closer
to the mountains/ID border, including near EAT, COE, PUW, LWS and
maybe SFF. Brief heavy rain, gusty/erratic winds and small hail
are possible, along with isolated lightning strikes. There will
also be a small window where patchy fog is possible, between 11Z
and 16Z around SFF/COE and perhaps LWS. Confidence leans toward
this not being much of issue and if any develops it should be
shallow and short-lived. /J. Cote`




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        52  79  57  82  59  85 /  20  10  10  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  49  78  54  82  56  83 /  20  20  20  30  20  20
Pullman        46  75  52  82  56  83 /  20  20  20  20  20  20
Lewiston       52  83  58  88  63  90 /  20  10  10  20  20  20
Colville       53  82  54  83  54  86 /  20  20  20  30  20  20
Sandpoint      50  78  51  81  52  80 /  20  20  20  30  20  20
Kellogg        47  76  49  81  53  81 /  20  40  40  30  30  20
Moses Lake     53  86  58  90  59  92 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      59  86  64  89  63  90 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           51  86  56  87  54  90 /  20  10  10  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 280310
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
810 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms decrease through sunset
Wednesday night, but the threat returns for the afternoon hours
on Thursday and Friday. However they will be more focused around
the mountains. Expect a warming trend into the weekend, with highs
in the 80s, with a lingering threat of mainly mountain showers
and thunderstorms. By next Monday and Tuesday the next best chance
of showers and thunderstorms arrives, with the potential for some
stronger storms and the return of cooler temperatures.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: the shower and thunderstorm threat is largely on
the wane. However there disturbances continue to pivot around the
exiting upper low. WV imagery shows the center of that exiting low
around eastern Idaho county (in lower panhandle of Idaho) this
hour. However disturbance rounding the backside of that low will
continue to provide some shower threat through the night. One wave
is dropping across southeast WA now. Another couple wave are
pushing toward the US/BC border. These latter two waves and at
least some indication of elevated instability through the night,
as well as trends on the HRRR suggest keeping some shower threat
going through the night across the northern mountains,
Spokane/C`dA area and Panhandle mountains. Though after 09Z-10Z
(2-3 AM) this threat may be on the wane as the waves leave the
main pool of potential elevated instability. Either way, I
continued the threat of showers going into the overnight the
aforementioned locations. I`m not as confident that there could be
any nocturnal thunder mixed in, so I left it out.

The remainder of the forecast looks generally on track. Only minor
tweaks to the Thursday afternoon/evening shower chances. With the
flow turning from northwest to westerly through tonight into
tomorrow this should help hold the main shower chances in the
mountains and closer to the WA/ID border eastward, leaving much of
the Basin dry. Yet there is still enough to say there is some
threat in the Spokane area into the higher Palouse, again with the
best chance closer to the Idaho border. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Isold to sct -shra/-tsra will be possible across much
of the region, with the best chance before 03Z. Thereafter the
main threat will dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. There
may be some lingering showers chances into the early overnight
between MWH, GEG, SFF, COE with the potential for the left over
showers over the northern mountains to drift south, before
abating but confidence is low.  The threat of showers/t-storms
will be renewed Thursday afternoon, with the main chances closer
to the mountains/ID border, including near EAT, COE, PUW, LWS and
maybe SFF. Brief heavy rain, gusty/erratic winds and small hail
are possible, along with isolated lightning strikes. There will
also be a small window where patchy fog is possible, between 11Z
and 16Z around SFF/COE and perhaps LWS. Confidence leans toward
this not being much of issue and if any develops it should be
shallow and short-lived. /J. Cote`




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        52  79  57  82  59  85 /  20  10  10  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  49  78  54  82  56  83 /  20  20  20  30  20  20
Pullman        46  75  52  82  56  83 /  20  20  20  20  20  20
Lewiston       52  83  58  88  63  90 /  20  10  10  20  20  20
Colville       53  82  54  83  54  86 /  20  20  20  30  20  20
Sandpoint      50  78  51  81  52  80 /  20  20  20  30  20  20
Kellogg        47  76  49  81  53  81 /  20  40  40  30  30  20
Moses Lake     53  86  58  90  59  92 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      59  86  64  89  63  90 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           51  86  56  87  54  90 /  20  10  10  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 280310
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
810 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms decrease through sunset
Wednesday night, but the threat returns for the afternoon hours
on Thursday and Friday. However they will be more focused around
the mountains. Expect a warming trend into the weekend, with highs
in the 80s, with a lingering threat of mainly mountain showers
and thunderstorms. By next Monday and Tuesday the next best chance
of showers and thunderstorms arrives, with the potential for some
stronger storms and the return of cooler temperatures.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: the shower and thunderstorm threat is largely on
the wane. However there disturbances continue to pivot around the
exiting upper low. WV imagery shows the center of that exiting low
around eastern Idaho county (in lower panhandle of Idaho) this
hour. However disturbance rounding the backside of that low will
continue to provide some shower threat through the night. One wave
is dropping across southeast WA now. Another couple wave are
pushing toward the US/BC border. These latter two waves and at
least some indication of elevated instability through the night,
as well as trends on the HRRR suggest keeping some shower threat
going through the night across the northern mountains,
Spokane/C`dA area and Panhandle mountains. Though after 09Z-10Z
(2-3 AM) this threat may be on the wane as the waves leave the
main pool of potential elevated instability. Either way, I
continued the threat of showers going into the overnight the
aforementioned locations. I`m not as confident that there could be
any nocturnal thunder mixed in, so I left it out.

The remainder of the forecast looks generally on track. Only minor
tweaks to the Thursday afternoon/evening shower chances. With the
flow turning from northwest to westerly through tonight into
tomorrow this should help hold the main shower chances in the
mountains and closer to the WA/ID border eastward, leaving much of
the Basin dry. Yet there is still enough to say there is some
threat in the Spokane area into the higher Palouse, again with the
best chance closer to the Idaho border. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Isold to sct -shra/-tsra will be possible across much
of the region, with the best chance before 03Z. Thereafter the
main threat will dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. There
may be some lingering showers chances into the early overnight
between MWH, GEG, SFF, COE with the potential for the left over
showers over the northern mountains to drift south, before
abating but confidence is low.  The threat of showers/t-storms
will be renewed Thursday afternoon, with the main chances closer
to the mountains/ID border, including near EAT, COE, PUW, LWS and
maybe SFF. Brief heavy rain, gusty/erratic winds and small hail
are possible, along with isolated lightning strikes. There will
also be a small window where patchy fog is possible, between 11Z
and 16Z around SFF/COE and perhaps LWS. Confidence leans toward
this not being much of issue and if any develops it should be
shallow and short-lived. /J. Cote`




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        52  79  57  82  59  85 /  20  10  10  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  49  78  54  82  56  83 /  20  20  20  30  20  20
Pullman        46  75  52  82  56  83 /  20  20  20  20  20  20
Lewiston       52  83  58  88  63  90 /  20  10  10  20  20  20
Colville       53  82  54  83  54  86 /  20  20  20  30  20  20
Sandpoint      50  78  51  81  52  80 /  20  20  20  30  20  20
Kellogg        47  76  49  81  53  81 /  20  40  40  30  30  20
Moses Lake     53  86  58  90  59  92 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      59  86  64  89  63  90 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           51  86  56  87  54  90 /  20  10  10  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 280310
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
810 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms decrease through sunset
Wednesday night, but the threat returns for the afternoon hours
on Thursday and Friday. However they will be more focused around
the mountains. Expect a warming trend into the weekend, with highs
in the 80s, with a lingering threat of mainly mountain showers
and thunderstorms. By next Monday and Tuesday the next best chance
of showers and thunderstorms arrives, with the potential for some
stronger storms and the return of cooler temperatures.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: the shower and thunderstorm threat is largely on
the wane. However there disturbances continue to pivot around the
exiting upper low. WV imagery shows the center of that exiting low
around eastern Idaho county (in lower panhandle of Idaho) this
hour. However disturbance rounding the backside of that low will
continue to provide some shower threat through the night. One wave
is dropping across southeast WA now. Another couple wave are
pushing toward the US/BC border. These latter two waves and at
least some indication of elevated instability through the night,
as well as trends on the HRRR suggest keeping some shower threat
going through the night across the northern mountains,
Spokane/C`dA area and Panhandle mountains. Though after 09Z-10Z
(2-3 AM) this threat may be on the wane as the waves leave the
main pool of potential elevated instability. Either way, I
continued the threat of showers going into the overnight the
aforementioned locations. I`m not as confident that there could be
any nocturnal thunder mixed in, so I left it out.

The remainder of the forecast looks generally on track. Only minor
tweaks to the Thursday afternoon/evening shower chances. With the
flow turning from northwest to westerly through tonight into
tomorrow this should help hold the main shower chances in the
mountains and closer to the WA/ID border eastward, leaving much of
the Basin dry. Yet there is still enough to say there is some
threat in the Spokane area into the higher Palouse, again with the
best chance closer to the Idaho border. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Isold to sct -shra/-tsra will be possible across much
of the region, with the best chance before 03Z. Thereafter the
main threat will dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. There
may be some lingering showers chances into the early overnight
between MWH, GEG, SFF, COE with the potential for the left over
showers over the northern mountains to drift south, before
abating but confidence is low.  The threat of showers/t-storms
will be renewed Thursday afternoon, with the main chances closer
to the mountains/ID border, including near EAT, COE, PUW, LWS and
maybe SFF. Brief heavy rain, gusty/erratic winds and small hail
are possible, along with isolated lightning strikes. There will
also be a small window where patchy fog is possible, between 11Z
and 16Z around SFF/COE and perhaps LWS. Confidence leans toward
this not being much of issue and if any develops it should be
shallow and short-lived. /J. Cote`




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        52  79  57  82  59  85 /  20  10  10  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  49  78  54  82  56  83 /  20  20  20  30  20  20
Pullman        46  75  52  82  56  83 /  20  20  20  20  20  20
Lewiston       52  83  58  88  63  90 /  20  10  10  20  20  20
Colville       53  82  54  83  54  86 /  20  20  20  30  20  20
Sandpoint      50  78  51  81  52  80 /  20  20  20  30  20  20
Kellogg        47  76  49  81  53  81 /  20  40  40  30  30  20
Moses Lake     53  86  58  90  59  92 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      59  86  64  89  63  90 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           51  86  56  87  54  90 /  20  10  10  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 272345
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
445 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms decrease through sunset
Wednesday night, but the threat returns for the afternoon hours
on Thursday and Friday. However they will be more focused around
the mountains. Expect a warming trend into the weekend, with highs
in the 80s, with a lingering threat of mainly mountain showers
and thunderstorms. By next Monday and Tuesday the next best chance
of showers and thunderstorms arrives, with the potential for some
stronger storms and the return of cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

This evening and tonight: Showers and thunderstorms will continue
through sunset across a majority of southeastern WA and the lower
ID Panhandle as an area of low pressure slowly departs to the
south. Activity north of a line from Mullan to La Crosse will be
more isolated in nature and contend with increasing large scale
subsidence. We are seeing isolated cells busting through the CIN
layer near Loup Loup and another just north of Lake Wenatchee so
despite the lack of activity right now, a small threat will
remain in place through dark but the overall threat for heavy rain
on the burn scars is low. There are two satellite waves that will
enhance or produce small clusters of storms. One is diving south
into Adams County and will be out of our area soon. The second is
just entering far northeastern WA and could bring last gasp of
showers and storms across the NE Mtns and into the Upper Basin
through the evening.

The main threats with any storms will be brief heavy downpours...small
hail...and lightning strikes. Storms near the Blue Mtns and Camas
Prairie will be nearly stationary and more favored to produce
rainfall amounts that could lead to localized flood problems. On
the contrary, the lack of wind shear in this environment will also
mean less organization within the storm structure and quicker
collapse of initial updrafts.

Areas of fog possible again by morning, especially near rivers and
areas that receive appreciable rainfall this afternoon.
Temperatures will be near to slightly warmer compared to this
morning. /sb

Thursday through Saturday night...This period will be
characterized by a warming trend with plenty of sunshine over most
locations...but marred by the potential for afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms mainly over the high terrain surrounding
the basin. Overall...the upper level low currently circulating
over the region will move off to the east on Thursday and cease
to be a factor in convective initiation...however a second upper
low descending down the Canadian Pacific coast and ejecting inland
over British Columbia will prevent a strong ridge from moving over
the region. Instead this low will promote a more southwesterly low
aloft through Thursday and Friday...allowing a strong warm up to
well above normal temperatures...mainly in the 80s with a few low
90 readings in the deep basin by Saturday.

Adequate moisture to fuel thunderstorms will continue to prevail
over the region and assuming dew points remain elevated to near
current levels with expected high temperatures in general most
locations will achieve anywhere from a few hundreds to near 1000
Joules/Kg each afternoon. However...on Thursday dynamic support
will be absent so thunderstorms will be confined to the mountain
zones. On Friday the GFS and NAM models both sense a weak wave
crossing the region in the southwesterly flow aloft generating
some moderate dpva and jet divergence as well as weak cooling
aloft. This will likely allow another round of afternoon and
evening storms and the presence of this weak energy aloft may
allow storm initiation over the rising terrain of the eastern
basin and the Waterville Plateau...in addition to the mountain
zones.

By Saturday drier air finally invades the region effectively
suppressing any further thunderstorm threat except for a small
lingering chance over the Idaho Panhandle. The surface thermal
trough will remain over the basin and the drier air will heat more
efficiently resulting in the highest temperatures of the week for
a splendidly benign beginning for weekend outdoor activities.
/Fugazzi

Sunday through Wednesday...An active weather pattern will prevail
across the Inland Northwest during this time period as an upper
level trough takes aim at the region. Timing differences between
the GFS and ECMWF are starting to be resolved with the 12Z run
today. The GFS has shown better run-to-run consistency up to this
point and now the latest run of the EC is trending closer to the
GFS timing. With confidence increasing, I have increased PoPs and
thunderstorm coverage for Monday/Monday night time period. The
upper trough will track toward the PacNW coast Sunday, placing the
forecast area under warm and moist southwest flow. This will keep
temperatures above normal Sunday with some shower and thunderstorm
coverage possible across the southeast zones. As the trough swings
inland Sunday night into Monday it will take on a negative tilt.
This pattern is a favorable one for showers and thunderstorms
across the forecast area. A decent amount of shear and surface-
based CAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg Monday afternoon means that
some thunderstorms could become organized. A tap into a sub
tropical moisture fetch supports heavy rain as a threat as well.
Tuesday the upper low drifts over the Inland Northwest with the
threat of scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing in an
unstable atmosphere. By Wednesday the low starts to exit to the
east and thunderstorm coverage will be more focused on the eastern
zones. Daytime temperatures will be on a cooling trend as the
region comes under the influence of the upper low with associated
clouds and precipitation. Expect widespread 80s on Sunday to be
replaced by 70s for the first half of the work week. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Isold to sct -shra/-tsra will be possible across much
of the region, with the best chance before 03Z. Thereafter the
main threat will dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. There
may be some lingering showers chances into the early overnight
between MWH, GEG, SFF, COE with the potential for the left over
showers over the northern mountains to drift south, before
abating but confidence is low.  The threat of showers/t-storms
will be renewed Thursday afternoon, with the main chances closer
to the mountains/ID border, including near EAT, COE, PUW, LWS and
maybe SFF. Brief heavy rain, gusty/erratic winds and small hail
are possible, along with isolated lightning strikes. There will
also be a small window where patchy fog is possible, between 11Z
and 16Z around SFF/COE and perhaps LWS. Confidence leans toward
this not being much of issue and if any develops it should be
shallow and short-lived. /J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        52  79  57  82  59  85 /  20  10  10  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  49  78  54  82  56  83 /  30  20  20  30  20  20
Pullman        46  75  52  82  56  83 /  30  20  20  20  20  20
Lewiston       52  83  58  88  63  90 /  40  10  10  20  20  20
Colville       53  82  54  83  54  86 /  30  20  20  30  20  20
Sandpoint      50  78  51  81  52  80 /  30  20  20  30  20  20
Kellogg        47  76  49  81  53  81 /  40  40  40  30  30  20
Moses Lake     53  86  58  90  59  92 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      59  86  64  89  63  90 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           51  86  56  87  54  90 /  20  10  10  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 272345
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
445 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms decrease through sunset
Wednesday night, but the threat returns for the afternoon hours
on Thursday and Friday. However they will be more focused around
the mountains. Expect a warming trend into the weekend, with highs
in the 80s, with a lingering threat of mainly mountain showers
and thunderstorms. By next Monday and Tuesday the next best chance
of showers and thunderstorms arrives, with the potential for some
stronger storms and the return of cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

This evening and tonight: Showers and thunderstorms will continue
through sunset across a majority of southeastern WA and the lower
ID Panhandle as an area of low pressure slowly departs to the
south. Activity north of a line from Mullan to La Crosse will be
more isolated in nature and contend with increasing large scale
subsidence. We are seeing isolated cells busting through the CIN
layer near Loup Loup and another just north of Lake Wenatchee so
despite the lack of activity right now, a small threat will
remain in place through dark but the overall threat for heavy rain
on the burn scars is low. There are two satellite waves that will
enhance or produce small clusters of storms. One is diving south
into Adams County and will be out of our area soon. The second is
just entering far northeastern WA and could bring last gasp of
showers and storms across the NE Mtns and into the Upper Basin
through the evening.

The main threats with any storms will be brief heavy downpours...small
hail...and lightning strikes. Storms near the Blue Mtns and Camas
Prairie will be nearly stationary and more favored to produce
rainfall amounts that could lead to localized flood problems. On
the contrary, the lack of wind shear in this environment will also
mean less organization within the storm structure and quicker
collapse of initial updrafts.

Areas of fog possible again by morning, especially near rivers and
areas that receive appreciable rainfall this afternoon.
Temperatures will be near to slightly warmer compared to this
morning. /sb

Thursday through Saturday night...This period will be
characterized by a warming trend with plenty of sunshine over most
locations...but marred by the potential for afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms mainly over the high terrain surrounding
the basin. Overall...the upper level low currently circulating
over the region will move off to the east on Thursday and cease
to be a factor in convective initiation...however a second upper
low descending down the Canadian Pacific coast and ejecting inland
over British Columbia will prevent a strong ridge from moving over
the region. Instead this low will promote a more southwesterly low
aloft through Thursday and Friday...allowing a strong warm up to
well above normal temperatures...mainly in the 80s with a few low
90 readings in the deep basin by Saturday.

Adequate moisture to fuel thunderstorms will continue to prevail
over the region and assuming dew points remain elevated to near
current levels with expected high temperatures in general most
locations will achieve anywhere from a few hundreds to near 1000
Joules/Kg each afternoon. However...on Thursday dynamic support
will be absent so thunderstorms will be confined to the mountain
zones. On Friday the GFS and NAM models both sense a weak wave
crossing the region in the southwesterly flow aloft generating
some moderate dpva and jet divergence as well as weak cooling
aloft. This will likely allow another round of afternoon and
evening storms and the presence of this weak energy aloft may
allow storm initiation over the rising terrain of the eastern
basin and the Waterville Plateau...in addition to the mountain
zones.

By Saturday drier air finally invades the region effectively
suppressing any further thunderstorm threat except for a small
lingering chance over the Idaho Panhandle. The surface thermal
trough will remain over the basin and the drier air will heat more
efficiently resulting in the highest temperatures of the week for
a splendidly benign beginning for weekend outdoor activities.
/Fugazzi

Sunday through Wednesday...An active weather pattern will prevail
across the Inland Northwest during this time period as an upper
level trough takes aim at the region. Timing differences between
the GFS and ECMWF are starting to be resolved with the 12Z run
today. The GFS has shown better run-to-run consistency up to this
point and now the latest run of the EC is trending closer to the
GFS timing. With confidence increasing, I have increased PoPs and
thunderstorm coverage for Monday/Monday night time period. The
upper trough will track toward the PacNW coast Sunday, placing the
forecast area under warm and moist southwest flow. This will keep
temperatures above normal Sunday with some shower and thunderstorm
coverage possible across the southeast zones. As the trough swings
inland Sunday night into Monday it will take on a negative tilt.
This pattern is a favorable one for showers and thunderstorms
across the forecast area. A decent amount of shear and surface-
based CAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg Monday afternoon means that
some thunderstorms could become organized. A tap into a sub
tropical moisture fetch supports heavy rain as a threat as well.
Tuesday the upper low drifts over the Inland Northwest with the
threat of scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing in an
unstable atmosphere. By Wednesday the low starts to exit to the
east and thunderstorm coverage will be more focused on the eastern
zones. Daytime temperatures will be on a cooling trend as the
region comes under the influence of the upper low with associated
clouds and precipitation. Expect widespread 80s on Sunday to be
replaced by 70s for the first half of the work week. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Isold to sct -shra/-tsra will be possible across much
of the region, with the best chance before 03Z. Thereafter the
main threat will dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. There
may be some lingering showers chances into the early overnight
between MWH, GEG, SFF, COE with the potential for the left over
showers over the northern mountains to drift south, before
abating but confidence is low.  The threat of showers/t-storms
will be renewed Thursday afternoon, with the main chances closer
to the mountains/ID border, including near EAT, COE, PUW, LWS and
maybe SFF. Brief heavy rain, gusty/erratic winds and small hail
are possible, along with isolated lightning strikes. There will
also be a small window where patchy fog is possible, between 11Z
and 16Z around SFF/COE and perhaps LWS. Confidence leans toward
this not being much of issue and if any develops it should be
shallow and short-lived. /J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        52  79  57  82  59  85 /  20  10  10  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  49  78  54  82  56  83 /  30  20  20  30  20  20
Pullman        46  75  52  82  56  83 /  30  20  20  20  20  20
Lewiston       52  83  58  88  63  90 /  40  10  10  20  20  20
Colville       53  82  54  83  54  86 /  30  20  20  30  20  20
Sandpoint      50  78  51  81  52  80 /  30  20  20  30  20  20
Kellogg        47  76  49  81  53  81 /  40  40  40  30  30  20
Moses Lake     53  86  58  90  59  92 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      59  86  64  89  63  90 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           51  86  56  87  54  90 /  20  10  10  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KPQR 272158 RRA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
258 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015


.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE PAC NW
FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS IS NOW CENTERED OVER WRN IDAHO. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH GRADUALLY EASTWARD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND
THU. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND...BRINGING A WARMER
AND DRIER AIR MASS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW LATE LATE SUN INTO
MON...BRINGING COOLER TEMPS AND A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE PERSISTENT CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE PAC NW FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS
NOW CENTERED OVER WRN IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING UNDER
THE COLD LOW OVER ERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ALONG THE CREST
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
AGAIN REMAIN EAST OF THE CREST. OTHERWISE...A VERY NICE DAY IS
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE THINNER MARINE STRATUS LAYER TODAY
BURNED OFF QUITE A BIT SOONER THAN WE SAW THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...ALTHOUGH SOME STRATOCUMULUS HAVE FORMED OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME LOW LEVEL MIXING. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST EVERYONE IN THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS...WHILE THE COAST WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH NORTHWESTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW.

THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT FURTHER EAST TONIGHT AND THU. THIS WILL
ALLOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO PUSH TOWARD THE PAC NW...BRINGING A
GRADUALLY WARMER AND DRIER AIR MASS TO THE REGION. EXPECT THE MARINE
STRATUS TO PUSH TO BE EVEN WEAKER TONIGHT...WITH THE MAJORITY OF
INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS REMAINING CLOUD FREE. 850 MB TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 13 TO 15 C TOMORROW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
AFTER HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS.
THE COAST WILL AGAIN STAY COOLER WITH THE NW LOW LEVEL FLOW.

THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR FRI AND SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED OUT
SOMEWHAT BY A LOW MOVING IN TO THE NORTH OVER B.C. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MAY MOVE BRING SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE FLOW ON
FRI...BUT EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACT TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRI
AND SAT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THU WITH INTERIOR HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ALONG THE CASCADE
CREST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY. THE BEST
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON FRI AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SAT NIGHT WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARING 130W BY EARLY SUN. AS THIS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INLAND...INCREASING CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN BY LATE SUN
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIDES ONSHORE AND
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES
SOUTH OF AROUND MT HOOD. AS THIS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG
A GENERALLY SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST PATH ACROSS THE REGION AND
THEN EAST OF THE CASCADES...EXPECT CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER
WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND MIDWEEK. WHILE SOME MODEST
DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN EVOLUTION BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION AND TIMING OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REMARKABLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE SHOWERY PATTERN ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&

.AVIATION...THE SUMMERTIME STRATUS PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A MIXTURE OF CIGS CURRENTLY EXISTS ALONG
THE COAST. EXPECT THESE CIGS TO CONTINUE TO THIN AND LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. VFR CIGS
CONTINUE INLAND WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CASCADES.
MVFR STRATUS LIKELY RETURNS TO THE COAST THIS EVENING...WITH IFR
CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE EARLY THU MORNING. MVFR STRATUS LOOKS TO
PUSH INLAND THU MORNING. CONDITIONS THU LOOK TO BE A CARBON COPY
OF TODAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CASCADES THROUGH 04Z. MVFR
STRATUS LOOKS TO RETURN AFTER 14Z THU MORNING. /64

&&

.MARINE...MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRES OVER THE INLAND PAC NW. EXPECT NW WINDS
TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF ISOLATED GUSTS ABOVE 21 KT ARE POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF NEWPORT IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MIXED SEAS BETWEEN 5
AND 7 FT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COULD BECOME CHOPPY
AT TIMES DUE TO THE FRESH NW SWELL BEING GENERATED OFF OF B.C. THE
SW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINATE SWELL ON FRI. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 272158 RRA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
258 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015


.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE PAC NW
FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS IS NOW CENTERED OVER WRN IDAHO. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH GRADUALLY EASTWARD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND
THU. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND...BRINGING A WARMER
AND DRIER AIR MASS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW LATE LATE SUN INTO
MON...BRINGING COOLER TEMPS AND A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE PERSISTENT CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE PAC NW FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS
NOW CENTERED OVER WRN IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING UNDER
THE COLD LOW OVER ERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ALONG THE CREST
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
AGAIN REMAIN EAST OF THE CREST. OTHERWISE...A VERY NICE DAY IS
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE THINNER MARINE STRATUS LAYER TODAY
BURNED OFF QUITE A BIT SOONER THAN WE SAW THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...ALTHOUGH SOME STRATOCUMULUS HAVE FORMED OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME LOW LEVEL MIXING. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST EVERYONE IN THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS...WHILE THE COAST WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH NORTHWESTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW.

THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT FURTHER EAST TONIGHT AND THU. THIS WILL
ALLOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO PUSH TOWARD THE PAC NW...BRINGING A
GRADUALLY WARMER AND DRIER AIR MASS TO THE REGION. EXPECT THE MARINE
STRATUS TO PUSH TO BE EVEN WEAKER TONIGHT...WITH THE MAJORITY OF
INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS REMAINING CLOUD FREE. 850 MB TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 13 TO 15 C TOMORROW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
AFTER HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS.
THE COAST WILL AGAIN STAY COOLER WITH THE NW LOW LEVEL FLOW.

THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR FRI AND SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED OUT
SOMEWHAT BY A LOW MOVING IN TO THE NORTH OVER B.C. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MAY MOVE BRING SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE FLOW ON
FRI...BUT EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACT TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRI
AND SAT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THU WITH INTERIOR HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ALONG THE CASCADE
CREST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY. THE BEST
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON FRI AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SAT NIGHT WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARING 130W BY EARLY SUN. AS THIS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INLAND...INCREASING CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN BY LATE SUN
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIDES ONSHORE AND
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES
SOUTH OF AROUND MT HOOD. AS THIS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG
A GENERALLY SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST PATH ACROSS THE REGION AND
THEN EAST OF THE CASCADES...EXPECT CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER
WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND MIDWEEK. WHILE SOME MODEST
DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN EVOLUTION BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION AND TIMING OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REMARKABLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE SHOWERY PATTERN ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&

.AVIATION...THE SUMMERTIME STRATUS PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A MIXTURE OF CIGS CURRENTLY EXISTS ALONG
THE COAST. EXPECT THESE CIGS TO CONTINUE TO THIN AND LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH AROUND 03Z. VFR CIGS
CONTINUE INLAND WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CASCADES.
MVFR STRATUS LIKELY RETURNS TO THE COAST THIS EVENING...WITH IFR
CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE EARLY THU MORNING. MVFR STRATUS LOOKS TO
PUSH INLAND THU MORNING. CONDITIONS THU LOOK TO BE A CARBON COPY
OF TODAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CASCADES THROUGH 04Z. MVFR
STRATUS LOOKS TO RETURN AFTER 14Z THU MORNING. /64

&&

.MARINE...MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRES OVER THE INLAND PAC NW. EXPECT NW WINDS
TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF ISOLATED GUSTS ABOVE 21 KT ARE POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF NEWPORT IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MIXED SEAS BETWEEN 5
AND 7 FT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COULD BECOME CHOPPY
AT TIMES DUE TO THE FRESH NW SWELL BEING GENERATED OFF OF B.C. THE
SW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINATE SWELL ON FRI. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 272154
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
254 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will decrease after sunset but
return on Thursday and Friday although more focused on mountainous
areas. A warming trend into the mid 80s by Saturday and Sunday
will grace the region with a small chance of mainly mountain showers
and thunderstorms. The large next storm system will bring a better
chance of showers and thunderstorms and cooler temperatures on
Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

This evening and tonight: Showers and thunderstorms will continue
through sunset across a majority of southeastern WA and the lower
ID Panhandle as an area of low pressure slowly departs to the
south. Activity north of a line from Mullan to La Crosse will be
more isolated in nature and contend with increasing large scale
subsidence. We are seeing isolated cells busting through the CIN
layer near Loup Loup and another just north of Lake Wenatchee so
depsite the lack of activity right now, a small threat will remain
in place through dark but the overall threat for heavy rain on the
burn scars is low. There are two satellite waves that will enhance
or produce small clusters of storms. One is diving south into
Adams County and will be out of our area soon. The second is just
entering far northeastern WA and could bring last gasp of showers
and storms across the NE Mtns and into the Upper Basin through the
evening.

The main threats with any storms will be brief heavy downpours...small
hail...and lightning strikes. Storms near the Blue Mtns and Camas
Prairie will be nearly stationary and more favoraved to produce
rainfall amounts that could lead to localized flood problems. On
the contrary, the lack of wind shear in this environment will also
mean less organization within the storm structure and quicker
collapse of initial updrafts.

Areas of fog possible again by morning, especially near rivers and
areas that receive appreciable rainfall this afternoon.
Temperatures will be near to slightly warmer compared to this
morning. /sb

Thursday through Saturday night...This period will be
characterized by a warming trend with plenty of sunshine over most
locations...but marred by the potential for afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms mainly over the high terrain surrounding
the basin. Overall...the upper level low currently circulating
over the region will move off to the east on Thursday and cease
to be a factor in convective initiation...however a second upper
low descending down the Canadian Pacific coast and ejecting inland
over British Columbia will prevent a strong ridge from moving over
the region. Instead this low will promote a more southwesterly low
aloft through Thursday and Friday...allowing a strong warm up to
well above normal temperatures...mainly in the 80s with a few low
90 readings in the deep basin by Saturday.

Adequate moisture to fuel thunderstorms will continue to prevail
over the region and assuming dew points remain elevated to near
current levels with expected high temperatures in general most
locations will achieve anywhere from a few hundreds to near 1000
Joules/Kg each afternoon. However...on Thursday dynamic support
will be absent so thunderstorms will be confined to the mountain
zones. On Friday the GFS and NAM models both sense a weak wave
crossing the region in the southwesterly flow aloft generating
some moderate dpva and jet divergence as well as weak cooling
aloft. This will likely allow another round of afternoon and
evening storms and the presence of this weak energy aloft may
allow storm initiation over the rising terrain of the eastern
basin and the Waterville Plateau...in addition to the mountain
zones.

By Saturday drier air finally invades the region effectively
suppressing any further thunderstorm threat except for a small
lingering chance over the Idaho Panhandle. The surface thermal
trough will remain over the basin and the drier air will heat more
efficiently resulting in the highest temperatures of the week for
a splendidly benign beginning for weekend outdoor activities.
/Fugazzi

Sunday through Wednesday...An active weather pattern will prevail
across the Inland Northwest during this time period as an upper
level trough takes aim at the region. Timing differences between
the GFS and ECMWF are starting to be resolved with the 12Z run
today. The GFS has shown better run-to-run consistency up to this
point and now the latest run of the EC is trending closer to the
GFS timing. With confidence increasing, I have increased PoPs and
thunderstorm coverage for Monday/Monday night time period. The
upper trough will track toward the PacNW coast Sunday, placing the
forecast area under warm and moist southwest flow. This will keep
temperatures above normal Sunday with some shower and thunderstorm
coverage possible across the southeast zones. As the trough swings
inland Sunday night into Monday it will take on a negative tilt.
This pattern is a favorable one for showers and thunderstorms
across the forecast area. A decent amount of shear and surface-
based CAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg Monday afternoon means that
some thunderstorms could become organized. A tap into a sub
tropical moisture fetch supports heavy rain as a threat as well.
Tuesday the upper low drifts over the Inland Northwest with the
threat of scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing in an
unstable atmosphere. By Wednesday the low starts to exit to the
east and thunderstorm coverage will be more focused on the eastern
zones. Daytime temperatures will be on a cooling trend as the
region comes under the influence of the upper low with associated
clouds and precipitation. Expect widespread 80s on Sunday to be
replaced by 70s for the first half of the work week. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Isolated to scattered showers will be possible across
much of the region with the highest probabilities near KGEG,
KSFF, KCOE, KPUW, and KLWS TAF sites. The stronger cells will
bring the potential for heavy rainfall...small hail...and
occasional lightning strikes as well as brief MVFR conditions.
The moist atmosphere has produced very little in the way of wind
gusts with t-storms over the last few days. Most convection will
dissipate near sunset with a small chance for elevated showers to
drop south vcnty KEAT/KMWH after 03z assoc with a weak front. /sb



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        52  79  57  82  59  85 /  20  10  10  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  49  78  54  82  56  83 /  30  20  20  30  20  20
Pullman        46  75  52  82  56  83 /  30  20  20  20  20  20
Lewiston       52  83  58  88  63  90 /  40  10  10  20  20  20
Colville       53  82  54  83  54  86 /  30  20  20  30  20  20
Sandpoint      50  78  51  81  52  80 /  30  20  20  30  20  20
Kellogg        47  76  49  81  53  81 /  40  40  40  30  30  20
Moses Lake     53  86  58  90  59  92 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      59  86  64  89  63  90 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           51  86  56  87  54  90 /  20  10  10  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 272154
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
254 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will decrease after sunset but
return on Thursday and Friday although more focused on mountainous
areas. A warming trend into the mid 80s by Saturday and Sunday
will grace the region with a small chance of mainly mountain showers
and thunderstorms. The large next storm system will bring a better
chance of showers and thunderstorms and cooler temperatures on
Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

This evening and tonight: Showers and thunderstorms will continue
through sunset across a majority of southeastern WA and the lower
ID Panhandle as an area of low pressure slowly departs to the
south. Activity north of a line from Mullan to La Crosse will be
more isolated in nature and contend with increasing large scale
subsidence. We are seeing isolated cells busting through the CIN
layer near Loup Loup and another just north of Lake Wenatchee so
depsite the lack of activity right now, a small threat will remain
in place through dark but the overall threat for heavy rain on the
burn scars is low. There are two satellite waves that will enhance
or produce small clusters of storms. One is diving south into
Adams County and will be out of our area soon. The second is just
entering far northeastern WA and could bring last gasp of showers
and storms across the NE Mtns and into the Upper Basin through the
evening.

The main threats with any storms will be brief heavy downpours...small
hail...and lightning strikes. Storms near the Blue Mtns and Camas
Prairie will be nearly stationary and more favoraved to produce
rainfall amounts that could lead to localized flood problems. On
the contrary, the lack of wind shear in this environment will also
mean less organization within the storm structure and quicker
collapse of initial updrafts.

Areas of fog possible again by morning, especially near rivers and
areas that receive appreciable rainfall this afternoon.
Temperatures will be near to slightly warmer compared to this
morning. /sb

Thursday through Saturday night...This period will be
characterized by a warming trend with plenty of sunshine over most
locations...but marred by the potential for afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms mainly over the high terrain surrounding
the basin. Overall...the upper level low currently circulating
over the region will move off to the east on Thursday and cease
to be a factor in convective initiation...however a second upper
low descending down the Canadian Pacific coast and ejecting inland
over British Columbia will prevent a strong ridge from moving over
the region. Instead this low will promote a more southwesterly low
aloft through Thursday and Friday...allowing a strong warm up to
well above normal temperatures...mainly in the 80s with a few low
90 readings in the deep basin by Saturday.

Adequate moisture to fuel thunderstorms will continue to prevail
over the region and assuming dew points remain elevated to near
current levels with expected high temperatures in general most
locations will achieve anywhere from a few hundreds to near 1000
Joules/Kg each afternoon. However...on Thursday dynamic support
will be absent so thunderstorms will be confined to the mountain
zones. On Friday the GFS and NAM models both sense a weak wave
crossing the region in the southwesterly flow aloft generating
some moderate dpva and jet divergence as well as weak cooling
aloft. This will likely allow another round of afternoon and
evening storms and the presence of this weak energy aloft may
allow storm initiation over the rising terrain of the eastern
basin and the Waterville Plateau...in addition to the mountain
zones.

By Saturday drier air finally invades the region effectively
suppressing any further thunderstorm threat except for a small
lingering chance over the Idaho Panhandle. The surface thermal
trough will remain over the basin and the drier air will heat more
efficiently resulting in the highest temperatures of the week for
a splendidly benign beginning for weekend outdoor activities.
/Fugazzi

Sunday through Wednesday...An active weather pattern will prevail
across the Inland Northwest during this time period as an upper
level trough takes aim at the region. Timing differences between
the GFS and ECMWF are starting to be resolved with the 12Z run
today. The GFS has shown better run-to-run consistency up to this
point and now the latest run of the EC is trending closer to the
GFS timing. With confidence increasing, I have increased PoPs and
thunderstorm coverage for Monday/Monday night time period. The
upper trough will track toward the PacNW coast Sunday, placing the
forecast area under warm and moist southwest flow. This will keep
temperatures above normal Sunday with some shower and thunderstorm
coverage possible across the southeast zones. As the trough swings
inland Sunday night into Monday it will take on a negative tilt.
This pattern is a favorable one for showers and thunderstorms
across the forecast area. A decent amount of shear and surface-
based CAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg Monday afternoon means that
some thunderstorms could become organized. A tap into a sub
tropical moisture fetch supports heavy rain as a threat as well.
Tuesday the upper low drifts over the Inland Northwest with the
threat of scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing in an
unstable atmosphere. By Wednesday the low starts to exit to the
east and thunderstorm coverage will be more focused on the eastern
zones. Daytime temperatures will be on a cooling trend as the
region comes under the influence of the upper low with associated
clouds and precipitation. Expect widespread 80s on Sunday to be
replaced by 70s for the first half of the work week. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Isolated to scattered showers will be possible across
much of the region with the highest probabilities near KGEG,
KSFF, KCOE, KPUW, and KLWS TAF sites. The stronger cells will
bring the potential for heavy rainfall...small hail...and
occasional lightning strikes as well as brief MVFR conditions.
The moist atmosphere has produced very little in the way of wind
gusts with t-storms over the last few days. Most convection will
dissipate near sunset with a small chance for elevated showers to
drop south vcnty KEAT/KMWH after 03z assoc with a weak front. /sb



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        52  79  57  82  59  85 /  20  10  10  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  49  78  54  82  56  83 /  30  20  20  30  20  20
Pullman        46  75  52  82  56  83 /  30  20  20  20  20  20
Lewiston       52  83  58  88  63  90 /  40  10  10  20  20  20
Colville       53  82  54  83  54  86 /  30  20  20  30  20  20
Sandpoint      50  78  51  81  52  80 /  30  20  20  30  20  20
Kellogg        47  76  49  81  53  81 /  40  40  40  30  30  20
Moses Lake     53  86  58  90  59  92 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      59  86  64  89  63  90 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           51  86  56  87  54  90 /  20  10  10  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 272127
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
230 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY
SUNNY DAYS. AN UPPER LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN A BIT AND TURN MORE NORTHERLY. THE UPSHOT
IS AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS THEN MOSTLY SUNNY THURSDAY. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND.

500 MB HEIGHTS WILL FALL SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA SAGS SOUTH AND THEN EAST. THIS WILL CAUSE
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE A BIT. THAT SAID...IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE THESE CHANGES WILL HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON THE WEATHER. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AFTER SOME
MORNING LOW CLOUDS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME
FRIDAY AND HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
THE INTERIOR. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING
SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE NEAR THE CREST. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AFTER SOME MORNING
LOW CLOUDS. HIGHS MIGHT EVEN WARM A LITTLE AS AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW EASES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER OREGON ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL COOL INTO THE
60S. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE SOUTH...CLOSE ENOUGH TO
KEEP SHOWERS AND CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE 60S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THINGS TO DRY OUT AND THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. MARINE STRATUS
IS ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOST OF IT HAS BURNED OFF IN
THE INTERIOR. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
AND BURN OFF BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.

KSEA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND A FEW HOURS OF MORNING LOW
CLOUDS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE IS OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRESSURE INLAND.
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA COULD INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH BY EVENING.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML











000
FXUS66 KSEW 272127
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
230 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY
SUNNY DAYS. AN UPPER LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN A BIT AND TURN MORE NORTHERLY. THE UPSHOT
IS AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS THEN MOSTLY SUNNY THURSDAY. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND.

500 MB HEIGHTS WILL FALL SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA SAGS SOUTH AND THEN EAST. THIS WILL CAUSE
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE A BIT. THAT SAID...IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE THESE CHANGES WILL HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON THE WEATHER. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AFTER SOME
MORNING LOW CLOUDS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME
FRIDAY AND HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
THE INTERIOR. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING
SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE NEAR THE CREST. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AFTER SOME MORNING
LOW CLOUDS. HIGHS MIGHT EVEN WARM A LITTLE AS AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW EASES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER OREGON ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL COOL INTO THE
60S. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE SOUTH...CLOSE ENOUGH TO
KEEP SHOWERS AND CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE 60S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THINGS TO DRY OUT AND THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. MARINE STRATUS
IS ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOST OF IT HAS BURNED OFF IN
THE INTERIOR. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
AND BURN OFF BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.

KSEA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND A FEW HOURS OF MORNING LOW
CLOUDS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE IS OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRESSURE INLAND.
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA COULD INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH BY EVENING.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KOTX 272116
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
216 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system will bring scattered afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest
today. Locally heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and small
hail will be possible. Low pressure will gradually depart by
Thursday, bringing a decrease in precipitation chances, but
chances may increase again by early next week across the region.
Temperatures warm back above normal from Wednesday into the end of
the week, with highs pushing into the 80s Thursday onward.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

This evening and tonight: Showers and thunderstorms will continue
through sunset across a majority of southeastern WA and the lower
ID Panhandle as an area of low pressure slowly departs to the
south. Activity north of a line from Mullan to La Crosse will be
more isolated in nature and contend with increasing large scale
subsidence. We are seeing isolated cells busting through the CIN
layer near Loup Loup and another just north of Lake Wenatchee so
depsite the lack of activity right now, a small threat will remain
in place through dark but the overall threat for heavy rain on the
burn scars is low. There are two satellite waves that will enhance
or produce small clusters of storms. One is diving south into
Adams County and will be out of our area soon. The second is just
entering far northeastern WA and could bring last gasp of showers
and storms across the NE Mtns and into the Upper Basin through the
evening.

The main threats with any storms will be brief heavy downpours...small
hail...and lightning strikes. Storms near the Blue Mtns and Camas
Prairie will be nearly stationary and more favoraved to produce
rainfall amounts that could lead to localized flood problems. On
the contrary, the lack of wind shear in this environment will also
mean less organization within the storm structure and quicker
collapse of initial updrafts.

Areas of fog possible again by morning, especially near rivers and
areas that receive appreciable rainfall this afternoon.
Temperatures will be near to slightly warmer compared to this
morning. /sb

Thursday through Saturday night...This period will be
characterized by a warming trend with plenty of sunshine over most
locations...but marred by the potential for afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms mainly over the high terrain surrounding
the basin. Overall...the upper level low currently circulating
over the region will move off to the east on Thursday and cease
to be a factor in convective initiation...however a second upper
low descending down the Canadian Pacific coast and ejecting inland
over British Columbia will prevent a strong ridge from moving over
the region. Instead this low will promote a more southwesterly low
aloft through Thursday and Friday...allowing a strong warm up to
well above normal temperatures...mainly in the 80s with a few low
90 readings in the deep basin by Saturday.

Adequate moisture to fuel thunderstorms will continue to prevail
over the region and assuming dew points remain elevated to near
current levels with expected high temperatures in general most
locations will achieve anywhere from a few hundreds to near 1000
Joules/Kg each afternoon. However...on Thursday dynamic support
will be absent so thunderstorms will be confined to the mountain
zones. On Friday the GFS and NAM models both sense a weak wave
crossing the region in the southwesterly flow aloft generating
some moderate dpva and jet divergence as well as weak cooling
aloft. This will likely allow another round of afternoon and
evening storms and the presence of this weak energy aloft may
allow storm initiation over the rising terrain of the eastern
basin and the Waterville Plateau...in addition to the mountain
zones.

By Saturday drier air finally invades the region effectively
suppressing any further thunderstorm threat except for a small
lingering chance over the Idaho Panhandle. The surface thermal
trough will remain over the basin and the drier air will heat more
efficiently resulting in the highest temperatures of the week for
a splendidly benign beginning for weekend outdoor activities.
/Fugazzi

Sunday through Wednesday...An active weather pattern will prevail
across the Inland Northwest during this time period as an upper
level trough takes aim at the region. Timing differences between
the GFS and ECMWF are starting to be resolved with the 12Z run
today. The GFS has shown better run-to-run consistency up to this
point and now the latest run of the EC is trending closer to the
GFS timing. With confidence increasing, I have increased PoPs and
thunderstorm coverage for Monday/Monday night time period. The
upper trough will track toward the PacNW coast Sunday, placing the
forecast area under warm and moist southwest flow. This will keep
temperatures above normal Sunday with some shower and thunderstorm
coverage possible across the southeast zones. As the trough swings
inland Sunday night into Monday it will take on a negative tilt.
This pattern is a favorable one for showers and thunderstorms
across the forecast area. A decent amount of shear and surface-
based CAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg Monday afternoon means that
some thunderstorms could become organized. A tap into a sub
tropical moisture fetch supports heavy rain as a threat as well.
Tuesday the upper low drifts over the Inland Northwest with the
threat of scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing in an
unstable atmosphere. By Wednesday the low starts to exit to the
east and thunderstorm coverage will be more focused on the eastern
zones. Daytime temperatures will be on a cooling trend as the
region comes under the influence of the upper low with associated
clouds and precipitation. Expect widespread 80s on Sunday to be
replaced by 70s for the first half of the work week. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Isolated to scattered showers will be possible across
much of the region with the highest probabilities near KGEG,
KSFF, KCOE, KPUW, and KLWS TAF sites. The stronger cells will
bring the potential for heavy rainfall...small hail...and
occasional lightning strikes as well as brief MVFR conditions.
The moist atmosphere has produced very little in the way of wind
gusts with t-storms over the last few days. Most convection will
dissipate near sunset with a small chance for elevated showers to
drop south vcnty KEAT/KMWH after 03z assoc with a weak front. /sb



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        52  79  57  82  59  85 /  20  10  10  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  49  78  54  82  56  83 /  30  20  20  30  20  20
Pullman        46  75  52  82  56  83 /  30  20  20  20  20  20
Lewiston       52  83  58  88  63  90 /  40  10  10  20  20  20
Colville       53  82  54  83  54  86 /  30  20  20  30  20  20
Sandpoint      50  78  51  81  52  80 /  30  20  20  30  20  20
Kellogg        47  76  49  81  53  81 /  40  40  40  30  30  20
Moses Lake     53  86  58  90  59  92 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      59  86  64  89  63  90 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           51  86  56  87  54  90 /  20  10  10  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 272116
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
216 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system will bring scattered afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest
today. Locally heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and small
hail will be possible. Low pressure will gradually depart by
Thursday, bringing a decrease in precipitation chances, but
chances may increase again by early next week across the region.
Temperatures warm back above normal from Wednesday into the end of
the week, with highs pushing into the 80s Thursday onward.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

This evening and tonight: Showers and thunderstorms will continue
through sunset across a majority of southeastern WA and the lower
ID Panhandle as an area of low pressure slowly departs to the
south. Activity north of a line from Mullan to La Crosse will be
more isolated in nature and contend with increasing large scale
subsidence. We are seeing isolated cells busting through the CIN
layer near Loup Loup and another just north of Lake Wenatchee so
depsite the lack of activity right now, a small threat will remain
in place through dark but the overall threat for heavy rain on the
burn scars is low. There are two satellite waves that will enhance
or produce small clusters of storms. One is diving south into
Adams County and will be out of our area soon. The second is just
entering far northeastern WA and could bring last gasp of showers
and storms across the NE Mtns and into the Upper Basin through the
evening.

The main threats with any storms will be brief heavy downpours...small
hail...and lightning strikes. Storms near the Blue Mtns and Camas
Prairie will be nearly stationary and more favoraved to produce
rainfall amounts that could lead to localized flood problems. On
the contrary, the lack of wind shear in this environment will also
mean less organization within the storm structure and quicker
collapse of initial updrafts.

Areas of fog possible again by morning, especially near rivers and
areas that receive appreciable rainfall this afternoon.
Temperatures will be near to slightly warmer compared to this
morning. /sb

Thursday through Saturday night...This period will be
characterized by a warming trend with plenty of sunshine over most
locations...but marred by the potential for afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms mainly over the high terrain surrounding
the basin. Overall...the upper level low currently circulating
over the region will move off to the east on Thursday and cease
to be a factor in convective initiation...however a second upper
low descending down the Canadian Pacific coast and ejecting inland
over British Columbia will prevent a strong ridge from moving over
the region. Instead this low will promote a more southwesterly low
aloft through Thursday and Friday...allowing a strong warm up to
well above normal temperatures...mainly in the 80s with a few low
90 readings in the deep basin by Saturday.

Adequate moisture to fuel thunderstorms will continue to prevail
over the region and assuming dew points remain elevated to near
current levels with expected high temperatures in general most
locations will achieve anywhere from a few hundreds to near 1000
Joules/Kg each afternoon. However...on Thursday dynamic support
will be absent so thunderstorms will be confined to the mountain
zones. On Friday the GFS and NAM models both sense a weak wave
crossing the region in the southwesterly flow aloft generating
some moderate dpva and jet divergence as well as weak cooling
aloft. This will likely allow another round of afternoon and
evening storms and the presence of this weak energy aloft may
allow storm initiation over the rising terrain of the eastern
basin and the Waterville Plateau...in addition to the mountain
zones.

By Saturday drier air finally invades the region effectively
suppressing any further thunderstorm threat except for a small
lingering chance over the Idaho Panhandle. The surface thermal
trough will remain over the basin and the drier air will heat more
efficiently resulting in the highest temperatures of the week for
a splendidly benign beginning for weekend outdoor activities.
/Fugazzi

Sunday through Wednesday...An active weather pattern will prevail
across the Inland Northwest during this time period as an upper
level trough takes aim at the region. Timing differences between
the GFS and ECMWF are starting to be resolved with the 12Z run
today. The GFS has shown better run-to-run consistency up to this
point and now the latest run of the EC is trending closer to the
GFS timing. With confidence increasing, I have increased PoPs and
thunderstorm coverage for Monday/Monday night time period. The
upper trough will track toward the PacNW coast Sunday, placing the
forecast area under warm and moist southwest flow. This will keep
temperatures above normal Sunday with some shower and thunderstorm
coverage possible across the southeast zones. As the trough swings
inland Sunday night into Monday it will take on a negative tilt.
This pattern is a favorable one for showers and thunderstorms
across the forecast area. A decent amount of shear and surface-
based CAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg Monday afternoon means that
some thunderstorms could become organized. A tap into a sub
tropical moisture fetch supports heavy rain as a threat as well.
Tuesday the upper low drifts over the Inland Northwest with the
threat of scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing in an
unstable atmosphere. By Wednesday the low starts to exit to the
east and thunderstorm coverage will be more focused on the eastern
zones. Daytime temperatures will be on a cooling trend as the
region comes under the influence of the upper low with associated
clouds and precipitation. Expect widespread 80s on Sunday to be
replaced by 70s for the first half of the work week. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Isolated to scattered showers will be possible across
much of the region with the highest probabilities near KGEG,
KSFF, KCOE, KPUW, and KLWS TAF sites. The stronger cells will
bring the potential for heavy rainfall...small hail...and
occasional lightning strikes as well as brief MVFR conditions.
The moist atmosphere has produced very little in the way of wind
gusts with t-storms over the last few days. Most convection will
dissipate near sunset with a small chance for elevated showers to
drop south vcnty KEAT/KMWH after 03z assoc with a weak front. /sb



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        52  79  57  82  59  85 /  20  10  10  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  49  78  54  82  56  83 /  30  20  20  30  20  20
Pullman        46  75  52  82  56  83 /  30  20  20  20  20  20
Lewiston       52  83  58  88  63  90 /  40  10  10  20  20  20
Colville       53  82  54  83  54  86 /  30  20  20  30  20  20
Sandpoint      50  78  51  81  52  80 /  30  20  20  30  20  20
Kellogg        47  76  49  81  53  81 /  40  40  40  30  30  20
Moses Lake     53  86  58  90  59  92 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      59  86  64  89  63  90 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           51  86  56  87  54  90 /  20  10  10  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 271913
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1213 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system will bring scattered afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest
today. Locally heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and small
hail will be possible. Low pressure will gradually depart by
Thursday, bringing a decrease in precipitation chances, but
chances may increase again by early next week across the region.
Temperatures warm back above normal from Wednesday into the end of
the week, with highs pushing into the 80s Thursday onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Afternoon update: Showers and thunderstorms are starting to
blossom across the region with scattered activity found across the
far southeastern zones including the Blue Mtns...Camas
Prairie...and Central Panhandle Mtns. For these
locations...generally south of a line from Mullan to La Crosse,
thunderstorm activity will be a bit more scattered in nature due
to the proximity of the low pressure system.

North of this line, forcing is focusing on either the terrain or
smaller scale waves. One is currently tracking through
Lincoln/Adams Counties and has resulted in t-storms between Odessa
and Lind. A second one of these midlevel waves looks to be moving
across the North Idaho Panhandle and starting to enter NE WA with
activity a bit more scattered in nature.

Outside these waves, the terrain is acting as the main lifting
mechanism which is leading to slower development and coverage more
isolated in nature.

Most activity will wane with sunset. One item of note is a wind
switch coming into the northern Cascades and Okanogan Country
after 00z. Models indicate a switch to light northerly winds
within the 850-700mb layer and HRRR is picking up on this and
developing a line of convection. This may linger into the evening
and eventually work south into the Upper Basin if it comes to
fruition. Dprg/DT on the HRRR indicate a similar message each of
the last 4-5 runs but have slowed down the timing and intensity.
/sb

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Isolated to scattered showers will be possible across
much of the region with the highest probabilities near KGEG,
KSFF, KCOE, KPUW, and KLWS TAF sites. The stronger cells will
bring the potential for heavy rainfall...small hail...and
occasional lightning strikes as well as brief MVFR conditions.
The moist atmosphere has produced very little in the way of wind
gusts with t-storms over the last few days. Most convection will
dissipate near sunset with a small chance for elevated showers to
drop south vcnty KEAT/KMWH after 03z assoc with a weak front. /sb


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        75  52  80  56  83  60 /  30  20  10  10  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  74  49  79  54  82  56 /  40  30  20  20  30  20
Pullman        70  46  77  52  82  56 /  60  30  20  20  20  20
Lewiston       76  52  83  58  89  63 /  60  40  10  10  20  20
Colville       80  53  84  54  84  55 /  30  30  20  20  30  20
Sandpoint      74  50  78  51  81  52 /  50  30  20  20  30  20
Kellogg        71  47  77  49  81  54 /  70  40  40  40  30  30
Moses Lake     81  53  87  58  90  61 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      82  59  87  63  89  64 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           82  51  87  55  87  55 /  30  30  10  10  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 271913
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1213 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system will bring scattered afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest
today. Locally heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and small
hail will be possible. Low pressure will gradually depart by
Thursday, bringing a decrease in precipitation chances, but
chances may increase again by early next week across the region.
Temperatures warm back above normal from Wednesday into the end of
the week, with highs pushing into the 80s Thursday onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Afternoon update: Showers and thunderstorms are starting to
blossom across the region with scattered activity found across the
far southeastern zones including the Blue Mtns...Camas
Prairie...and Central Panhandle Mtns. For these
locations...generally south of a line from Mullan to La Crosse,
thunderstorm activity will be a bit more scattered in nature due
to the proximity of the low pressure system.

North of this line, forcing is focusing on either the terrain or
smaller scale waves. One is currently tracking through
Lincoln/Adams Counties and has resulted in t-storms between Odessa
and Lind. A second one of these midlevel waves looks to be moving
across the North Idaho Panhandle and starting to enter NE WA with
activity a bit more scattered in nature.

Outside these waves, the terrain is acting as the main lifting
mechanism which is leading to slower development and coverage more
isolated in nature.

Most activity will wane with sunset. One item of note is a wind
switch coming into the northern Cascades and Okanogan Country
after 00z. Models indicate a switch to light northerly winds
within the 850-700mb layer and HRRR is picking up on this and
developing a line of convection. This may linger into the evening
and eventually work south into the Upper Basin if it comes to
fruition. Dprg/DT on the HRRR indicate a similar message each of
the last 4-5 runs but have slowed down the timing and intensity.
/sb

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Isolated to scattered showers will be possible across
much of the region with the highest probabilities near KGEG,
KSFF, KCOE, KPUW, and KLWS TAF sites. The stronger cells will
bring the potential for heavy rainfall...small hail...and
occasional lightning strikes as well as brief MVFR conditions.
The moist atmosphere has produced very little in the way of wind
gusts with t-storms over the last few days. Most convection will
dissipate near sunset with a small chance for elevated showers to
drop south vcnty KEAT/KMWH after 03z assoc with a weak front. /sb


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        75  52  80  56  83  60 /  30  20  10  10  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  74  49  79  54  82  56 /  40  30  20  20  30  20
Pullman        70  46  77  52  82  56 /  60  30  20  20  20  20
Lewiston       76  52  83  58  89  63 /  60  40  10  10  20  20
Colville       80  53  84  54  84  55 /  30  30  20  20  30  20
Sandpoint      74  50  78  51  81  52 /  50  30  20  20  30  20
Kellogg        71  47  77  49  81  54 /  70  40  40  40  30  30
Moses Lake     81  53  87  58  90  61 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      82  59  87  63  89  64 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           82  51  87  55  87  55 /  30  30  10  10  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 271913
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1213 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system will bring scattered afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest
today. Locally heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and small
hail will be possible. Low pressure will gradually depart by
Thursday, bringing a decrease in precipitation chances, but
chances may increase again by early next week across the region.
Temperatures warm back above normal from Wednesday into the end of
the week, with highs pushing into the 80s Thursday onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Afternoon update: Showers and thunderstorms are starting to
blossom across the region with scattered activity found across the
far southeastern zones including the Blue Mtns...Camas
Prairie...and Central Panhandle Mtns. For these
locations...generally south of a line from Mullan to La Crosse,
thunderstorm activity will be a bit more scattered in nature due
to the proximity of the low pressure system.

North of this line, forcing is focusing on either the terrain or
smaller scale waves. One is currently tracking through
Lincoln/Adams Counties and has resulted in t-storms between Odessa
and Lind. A second one of these midlevel waves looks to be moving
across the North Idaho Panhandle and starting to enter NE WA with
activity a bit more scattered in nature.

Outside these waves, the terrain is acting as the main lifting
mechanism which is leading to slower development and coverage more
isolated in nature.

Most activity will wane with sunset. One item of note is a wind
switch coming into the northern Cascades and Okanogan Country
after 00z. Models indicate a switch to light northerly winds
within the 850-700mb layer and HRRR is picking up on this and
developing a line of convection. This may linger into the evening
and eventually work south into the Upper Basin if it comes to
fruition. Dprg/DT on the HRRR indicate a similar message each of
the last 4-5 runs but have slowed down the timing and intensity.
/sb

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Isolated to scattered showers will be possible across
much of the region with the highest probabilities near KGEG,
KSFF, KCOE, KPUW, and KLWS TAF sites. The stronger cells will
bring the potential for heavy rainfall...small hail...and
occasional lightning strikes as well as brief MVFR conditions.
The moist atmosphere has produced very little in the way of wind
gusts with t-storms over the last few days. Most convection will
dissipate near sunset with a small chance for elevated showers to
drop south vcnty KEAT/KMWH after 03z assoc with a weak front. /sb


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        75  52  80  56  83  60 /  30  20  10  10  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  74  49  79  54  82  56 /  40  30  20  20  30  20
Pullman        70  46  77  52  82  56 /  60  30  20  20  20  20
Lewiston       76  52  83  58  89  63 /  60  40  10  10  20  20
Colville       80  53  84  54  84  55 /  30  30  20  20  30  20
Sandpoint      74  50  78  51  81  52 /  50  30  20  20  30  20
Kellogg        71  47  77  49  81  54 /  70  40  40  40  30  30
Moses Lake     81  53  87  58  90  61 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      82  59  87  63  89  64 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           82  51  87  55  87  55 /  30  30  10  10  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KPQR 271636 RRA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
936 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015


.SYNOPSIS...PESKY UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE OR/WA/ID BORDER TODAY
WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES LATER TODAY AND THU. THIS
WILL USHER IN A WARMER AND DRIER AIR MASS. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL
APPROACH LATER THIS WEEKEND...BRING INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND
CLOUDS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND A THREAT OF SHOWERS...FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...BASED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...CUT BACK THE FCST SKY COVER FOR THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE WAS A MARINE STRATUS PUSH...BUT IT WAS PRETTY WEAK
WITH CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL GAPS AND UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA
INTO THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AREA. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN SOME
PATCHY FOG OBSERVED DOWN IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. GIVEN THE
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER AND THE DECREASED CLOUD COVER TO START...IT
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE INTERIOR WILL HAVE FULL SUNSHINE FOR THE
AFTERNOON. SO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS SEEMS LIKE A
GOOD BET. PYLE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE PESKY PATTERN WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL SLOWLY PUSH ON TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW THAT WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND THE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT...WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORMS POP OVER
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES...AND PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH OVER THE FAR NORTH OREGON CASCADES. NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT THAT
WILL SEE MUCH OF ANY SHOWERS TO SOUTH OF MT HOOD AS FLOW BECOMES LESS
FAVORABLE.  BUT WILL KEEP A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THERE WITH BEST THREAT
OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES. ALL SHOWERS WILL END SOON AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...AFTER MORNING CLOUDS...SHOULD HAVE AN ABUNDANCE OF
SUNSHINE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. COAST WILL BE LAST TO LOSE
THE CLOUDS. SHOULD GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS...BUT COAST WILL HOLD IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS FURTHER ON THU AND FRI...SO SUSPECT THAT THE
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS.  THIS LACK
OF CLOUDS INLAND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 80S.  EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LOW HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST...WILL
STILL HAVE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY OVER AREAS TO EAST OF THE CASCADES
EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE CASCADES CREST. SO WILL KEEP A VERY MINOR
THREAT OF A SHOWER OVER THE HIGH CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS.THAT SAID...MY CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW THAT WILL ANYTHING
OTHER THAN SOME SCRAWNY AFTERNOON CUMULUS.  ROCKEY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE
PACNW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE
A LOT LIKE FRIDAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES EARLY CLEARING TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CASCADE CREST.
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY ON
SUNDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER...TOO. UNDER WESTERLY FLOW
MODELS STILL SUGGEST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE CASCADES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHETHER THESE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
CLEARS OUT OVER THE CASCADES BY THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...MODELS SUGGEST SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...THE SUMMERTIME STRATUS PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IFR/MVFR STRATUS WILL LINGER ALONG THE
COAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. COASTAL STRATUS LOOKS TO CLEAR
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 21-03Z. A DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE WILL ALLOW
STRATUS TO RETURN INLAND THIS EVENING WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THU MORNING. INLAND TERMINALS LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY VFR
TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CASCADES THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE METRO TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
IFR/MVFR STRATUS THROUGH AROUND 18Z BEFORE THE DECK SCATTERS OUT.
MVFR STRATUS LIKELY RETURNS INLAND THU MORNING. CONDITIONS THU
LOOK TO BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...IFR/MVFR STRATUS LOOKS TO SCATTER OUT AROUND
18Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CASCADES BETWEEN 20-04Z. MVFR
STRATUS LIKELY RETURNS EARLY THU MORNING. /64

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BROKEN RECORD CONTINUES WITH FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A PAIR OF DOMINANT SWELL TRAINS HAVE ARRIVED TO THE
WATERS AND WILL REMAIN IN SOME FORM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
STILL HAVE SOME FRESH SWELL FROM NORTHWEST WINDS OFF THE WESTERN
BC COAST COMBINING WITH THE SWELLS TO PRODUCE SOMEWHAT CHOPPY
SEAS. COMBINED SEAS WILL HOVER BETWEEN 6 AND 7 FT THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS BEFORE EASING TO AROUND 5 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
STAY FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST WITH ONLY BRIEF AND LOCALIZED
GUSTS PUSHING TO 20 KTS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 271530
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
830 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALLOWING FOR WARMER AND SUNNIER WEATHER. AN
UPPER LOW WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL SLOWLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AND THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN A BIT AND TURN MORE NORTHERLY. THE UPSHOT
IS LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING SHOULD SCATTER THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S. THERE SHOULD BE LESS LOW
CLOUDS THURSDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA SAGS SOUTH TOWARDS WESTERN WASHINGTON.
THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE AGAIN. THAT
SAID...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THESE CHANGES WILL HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON
THE WEATHER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED FOR ANOTHER MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY WARM SLIGHTLY AND HIGHS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY LOWER
THIS WEEKEND WITH A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW.
THIS WILL CAUSE HIGHS TO COOL SLIGHTLY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL.

AN UPPER LOW OFF THE FAR NORTHERN CA COAST WILL EITHER MOVE INTO
OREGON OR WA ON MONDAY. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE MODELS WERE NOT IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HOW THIS WILL UNFOLD. THE GENERAL IDEA
WAS THAT MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL START TO IMPACT
THE CWA ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. THE UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN IN THE VICINITY FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY AS
CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASE. SCHNEIDER/05

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. THE AIR IS
MOIST WITH AREAS OF MARINE STRATUS THAT FOR THE MOST PART WILL LIFT
AND BURN OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

KSEA...THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT MIDDAY.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRESSURE
INLAND THROUGH THE WEEK. ONSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WEST WINDS IN
THE STRAIT.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 271530
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
830 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALLOWING FOR WARMER AND SUNNIER WEATHER. AN
UPPER LOW WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL SLOWLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AND THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN A BIT AND TURN MORE NORTHERLY. THE UPSHOT
IS LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING SHOULD SCATTER THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S. THERE SHOULD BE LESS LOW
CLOUDS THURSDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA SAGS SOUTH TOWARDS WESTERN WASHINGTON.
THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE AGAIN. THAT
SAID...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THESE CHANGES WILL HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON
THE WEATHER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED FOR ANOTHER MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY WARM SLIGHTLY AND HIGHS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY LOWER
THIS WEEKEND WITH A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW.
THIS WILL CAUSE HIGHS TO COOL SLIGHTLY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL.

AN UPPER LOW OFF THE FAR NORTHERN CA COAST WILL EITHER MOVE INTO
OREGON OR WA ON MONDAY. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE MODELS WERE NOT IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HOW THIS WILL UNFOLD. THE GENERAL IDEA
WAS THAT MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL START TO IMPACT
THE CWA ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. THE UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN IN THE VICINITY FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY AS
CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASE. SCHNEIDER/05

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. THE AIR IS
MOIST WITH AREAS OF MARINE STRATUS THAT FOR THE MOST PART WILL LIFT
AND BURN OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

KSEA...THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT MIDDAY.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRESSURE
INLAND THROUGH THE WEEK. ONSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WEST WINDS IN
THE STRAIT.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 271530
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
830 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALLOWING FOR WARMER AND SUNNIER WEATHER. AN
UPPER LOW WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL SLOWLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AND THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN A BIT AND TURN MORE NORTHERLY. THE UPSHOT
IS LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING SHOULD SCATTER THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S. THERE SHOULD BE LESS LOW
CLOUDS THURSDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA SAGS SOUTH TOWARDS WESTERN WASHINGTON.
THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE AGAIN. THAT
SAID...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THESE CHANGES WILL HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON
THE WEATHER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED FOR ANOTHER MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY WARM SLIGHTLY AND HIGHS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY LOWER
THIS WEEKEND WITH A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW.
THIS WILL CAUSE HIGHS TO COOL SLIGHTLY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL.

AN UPPER LOW OFF THE FAR NORTHERN CA COAST WILL EITHER MOVE INTO
OREGON OR WA ON MONDAY. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE MODELS WERE NOT IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HOW THIS WILL UNFOLD. THE GENERAL IDEA
WAS THAT MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL START TO IMPACT
THE CWA ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. THE UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN IN THE VICINITY FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY AS
CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASE. SCHNEIDER/05

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. THE AIR IS
MOIST WITH AREAS OF MARINE STRATUS THAT FOR THE MOST PART WILL LIFT
AND BURN OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

KSEA...THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT MIDDAY.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRESSURE
INLAND THROUGH THE WEEK. ONSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WEST WINDS IN
THE STRAIT.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KPQR 271153 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
453 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION FOR LOWER CLOUD DECKS THIS MORNING

.SYNOPSIS...PESKY UPPER LOW OVER NRN ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY PUSH
FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR MASS...WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARMING. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH LATER THIS
WEEKEND...BRING INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDS WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AND A THREAT OF SHOWERS...FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE PESKY PATTERN WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL SLOWLY PUSH ON TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW THAT WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND THE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT...WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORMS POP OVER
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES...AND PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH OVER THE FAR NORTH OREGON CASCADES. NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT THAT
WILL SEE MUCH OF ANY SHOWERS TO SOUTH OF MT HOOD AS FLOW BECOMES LESS
FAVORABLE.  BUT WILL KEEP A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THERE WITH BEST THREAT
OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES. ALL SHOWERS WILL END SOON AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...AFTER MORNING CLOUDS...SHOULD HAVE AN ABUNDANCE OF
SUNSHINE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. COAST WILL BE LAST TO LOSE
THE CLOUDS. SHOULD GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS...BUT COAST WILL HOLD IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS FURTHER ON THU AND FRI...SO SUSPECT THAT THE
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS.  THIS LACK
OF CLOUDS INLAND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 80S.  EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LOW HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST...WILL
STILL HAVE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY OVER AREAS TO EAST OF THE CASCADES
EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE CASCADES CREST. SO WILL KEEP A VERY MINOR
THREAT OF A SHOWER OVER THE HIGH CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS.THAT SAID...MY CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW THAT WILL ANYTHING
OTHER THAN SOME SCRAWNY AFTERNOON CUMULUS.  ROCKEY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE
PACNW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE
A LOT LIKE FRIDAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES EARLY CLEARING TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CASCADE CREST.
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY ON
SUNDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER...TOO. UNDER WESTERLY FLOW
MODELS STILL SUGGEST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE CASCADES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHETHER THESE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
CLEARS OUT OVER THE CASCADES BY THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...MODELS SUGGEST SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...HEADING INTO SOMEWHAT OF A SUMMERTIME STRATUS PATTERN
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HIGH END IFR/LOW END MVFR STRATUS WILL
LINGER NEAR THE COASTLINE WITH PERHAPS SEVERAL HOURS OF CLEARING
ROUGHLY 21-03Z BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE PULLS IT BACK OVER LAND FOR THE
LATE EVENING THROUGH THE MORNING. INLAND TERMINALS WILL ALSO LIKELY
SEE A HIGH END IFR/LOW END MVFR STRATUS DECK 008-015 AGL GENERALLY
DURING A 12Z TO 18Z PERIOD WITH OTHERWISE MAINLY SCT CLOUDS.
MODERATE CUMULUS AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE 18-04Z TODAY MAINLY NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...IFR CIGS HAVE MOVED OVER THE FIELD AND WILL
REMAIN THROUGH AROUND 17Z OR SO AS THEY SHOULD BE FAIRLY THIN.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHALLOW CUMULUS MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN APPROACHES AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CASCADE
CREST AND EAST SLOPES. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. ANOTHER
SET OF LOW STRATUS PROBABLY WILL RETURN LATE OVERNIGHT. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...BROKEN RECORD CONTINUES WITH FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A PAIR OF DOMINANT SWELL TRAINS HAVE ARRIVED
TO THE WATERS AND WILL REMAIN IN SOME FORM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. STILL HAVE SOME FRESH SWELL FROM NORTHWEST WINDS OFF THE
WESTERN BC COAST COMBINING WITH THE SWELLS TO PRODUCE SOMEWHAT
CHOPPY SEAS. COMBINED SEAS WILL HOVER BETWEEN 6 AND 7 FT THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS BEFORE EASING TO AROUND 5 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL STAY FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST WITH ONLY BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED GUSTS PUSHING TO 20 KTS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /JBONK
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 271153
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
453 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system will bring scattered afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest
today. Locally heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and small
hail will be possible. Low pressure will gradually depart by
Thursday, bringing a decrease in precipitation chances, but
chances may increase again by early next week across the region.
Temperatures warm back above normal from Wednesday into the end of
the week, with highs pushing into the 80s Thursday onward.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Thursday: The upper level low pressure system that has
brought showers and thunderstorms to the region the last few days
is currently circulating over southeast WA. The low will continue
on a southeast trajectory through this afternoon. This is expected
to focus more widespread shower activity over the southeast
portion of the region underneath the cold pool of the upper level
low. This will primarily include the Palouse, over into the
Central Panhandle Mtns and points southward. The boundary layer
will remain fairly moist across much of the rest of the region. We
will not see a situation where there will be an abundant amount of
drier air that filters into the region out of Canada. As such,
daytime heating is expected to result in afternoon convection
across much of the rest of the region as well (especially over the
mtns), but will be more isolated to scattered in coverage further
away from the center of the low.

Models do show fairly good surface based CAPEs over the east
slopes of the northern Cascade Mtns of around 700 J/KG and not
much in the way of CIN needed to be overcome. The atmosphere
itself will also remain on the juicier side with p-wats neat
three-quarters of an inch. Storm motion will be slow on the order
of 10-15 mph to the south-southwest. All these factors will once
again result in some concerns for heavy rain on recent burn scars
from the 2013 and 2014 fire seasons. Satellite imagery does not
show much mid to high level cloud cover upstream of the Cascades
early this morning. This should result in a good amount of
sunshine today with better surface heating expected compared to
the last couple of afternoons. This should make it easier for this
area to achieve there convective potential and realize the 700
J/G of CAPE. There is also the possibility of multiple slow moving
thunderstorms moving over the same area. This would be a worse
case scenario for the burn scar locations. The good news is that
the best instability looks to be a bit west of where the worst
burn scar locations are such as the Carlton Complex and Mills
Canyon burn scars. Confidence is low that heavy rain would lead to
flash flooding or debris flows, but at least a small risk will be
present for this afternoon.

The upper level low will push into Colorado on Thursday. With that
said, dew points will remain in the 40s and low 50s. CIN will be
weaker over the higher terrain and there will be a good chance for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms once again in the afternoon.
The basin will have a harder time getting any convection going
with a stronger cap in place.

Temperatures will see a warming trend over the next couple of
days. Many locations will be up over or near 80 degrees by
Thursday and back above normal for late May. /SVH

Thursday night through Wednesday...Zonal flow across the region
through the weekend as another closed low drops into central B.C.
Thursday and slowly moves east and out of the area on Sunday.
Meanwhile satellite imagery is also showing a deeper closed low
out near 40N/150W. This second feature will be the dominant
weather feature towards the end of the forecast period.

Thursday night through Saturday night...A closed low currently
seen on water vapor imagery just moving into Haida Qwaii will
drop into central B.C. Thursday night and slowly move east well
north of the border through early Sunday morning. This will put
the region into a zonal/westerly flow. This isn`t typically an
overly wet weather pattern for this area. However model guidance
continues to show little in the way of drying as the flow pattern
changes. PWAT`s remain 150% or more above normal. This additional
moisture will add to the normal destabilization process due to
afternoon heating. Several weak waves moving through the forecast
area will be the icing on the cake for late day showers and
embedded thunderstorms. Storm motion is on the low end so the
biggest challenge will be localized heavy rain. However models are
indicating a better shear environment each afternoon so there may
some localized pea sized or slightly larger hail. Temperatures
will be on the increase through the weekend with temperatures in
the 80s and 90s. I did cool off max temperatures Sunday due to
lower 850 temps and increased cloud cover.

Sunday through Wednesday...The previously mentioned low out in the
Pacific will finally make it`s way towards the west coast, again
as a closed low. Models are still having some timing issues but
they all have the low move through the forecast area in some
fashion Monday and Wednesday. This will result in cooler
temperatures and another round of wet, and likely very wet
convection. Interestingly this pattern is typically a good one for
thunderstorms but model guidance is not showing anything but weak
surface based cape and negative LIs for the southeast zones and
the Cascades. Pops were increased accordingly and will go ahead
and hold off on going to wild with the thunderstorm threat at this
time, but stay tuned, certainly there is more to come.
Temperatures will also cool from the very warm weekend with max
temperatures mainly in the 60s and 70s. But this is still above
seasonal averages. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: An upper level low pressure system will reside over KPUW
and KLWS today. Although there is some mid level clouds wrapping
around the low, there has been enough clearing overnight for low
stratus and fog to form across the northern valleys and may
briefly impact KGEG, KSFF and KCOE with MVFR vis possible through
15Z. Isolated to scattered showers will then develop in the
afternoon across much of the region; KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW, and
KLWS TAF sites will see the best chances for showers. Isolated
thunderstorms will also be possible at these TAF locations through
the afternoon with confidence a bit higher for thunderstorms at
KPUW and KLWS TAF locations. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        75  54  80  56  83  60 /  30  20  20  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  74  51  79  54  82  56 /  40  30  20  20  20  10
Pullman        70  49  77  52  82  56 /  60  20  20  10  10  10
Lewiston       76  54  83  58  89  63 /  60  20  10  10  10  10
Colville       80  51  84  54  84  55 /  30  30  20  30  30  20
Sandpoint      74  49  78  51  81  52 /  50  30  40  40  30  20
Kellogg        71  47  77  49  81  54 /  70  40  40  30  20  20
Moses Lake     81  55  87  58  90  61 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      82  61  87  63  89  64 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           82  53  87  55  87  55 /  30  30  10  20  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 271153
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
453 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system will bring scattered afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest
today. Locally heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and small
hail will be possible. Low pressure will gradually depart by
Thursday, bringing a decrease in precipitation chances, but
chances may increase again by early next week across the region.
Temperatures warm back above normal from Wednesday into the end of
the week, with highs pushing into the 80s Thursday onward.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Thursday: The upper level low pressure system that has
brought showers and thunderstorms to the region the last few days
is currently circulating over southeast WA. The low will continue
on a southeast trajectory through this afternoon. This is expected
to focus more widespread shower activity over the southeast
portion of the region underneath the cold pool of the upper level
low. This will primarily include the Palouse, over into the
Central Panhandle Mtns and points southward. The boundary layer
will remain fairly moist across much of the rest of the region. We
will not see a situation where there will be an abundant amount of
drier air that filters into the region out of Canada. As such,
daytime heating is expected to result in afternoon convection
across much of the rest of the region as well (especially over the
mtns), but will be more isolated to scattered in coverage further
away from the center of the low.

Models do show fairly good surface based CAPEs over the east
slopes of the northern Cascade Mtns of around 700 J/KG and not
much in the way of CIN needed to be overcome. The atmosphere
itself will also remain on the juicier side with p-wats neat
three-quarters of an inch. Storm motion will be slow on the order
of 10-15 mph to the south-southwest. All these factors will once
again result in some concerns for heavy rain on recent burn scars
from the 2013 and 2014 fire seasons. Satellite imagery does not
show much mid to high level cloud cover upstream of the Cascades
early this morning. This should result in a good amount of
sunshine today with better surface heating expected compared to
the last couple of afternoons. This should make it easier for this
area to achieve there convective potential and realize the 700
J/G of CAPE. There is also the possibility of multiple slow moving
thunderstorms moving over the same area. This would be a worse
case scenario for the burn scar locations. The good news is that
the best instability looks to be a bit west of where the worst
burn scar locations are such as the Carlton Complex and Mills
Canyon burn scars. Confidence is low that heavy rain would lead to
flash flooding or debris flows, but at least a small risk will be
present for this afternoon.

The upper level low will push into Colorado on Thursday. With that
said, dew points will remain in the 40s and low 50s. CIN will be
weaker over the higher terrain and there will be a good chance for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms once again in the afternoon.
The basin will have a harder time getting any convection going
with a stronger cap in place.

Temperatures will see a warming trend over the next couple of
days. Many locations will be up over or near 80 degrees by
Thursday and back above normal for late May. /SVH

Thursday night through Wednesday...Zonal flow across the region
through the weekend as another closed low drops into central B.C.
Thursday and slowly moves east and out of the area on Sunday.
Meanwhile satellite imagery is also showing a deeper closed low
out near 40N/150W. This second feature will be the dominant
weather feature towards the end of the forecast period.

Thursday night through Saturday night...A closed low currently
seen on water vapor imagery just moving into Haida Qwaii will
drop into central B.C. Thursday night and slowly move east well
north of the border through early Sunday morning. This will put
the region into a zonal/westerly flow. This isn`t typically an
overly wet weather pattern for this area. However model guidance
continues to show little in the way of drying as the flow pattern
changes. PWAT`s remain 150% or more above normal. This additional
moisture will add to the normal destabilization process due to
afternoon heating. Several weak waves moving through the forecast
area will be the icing on the cake for late day showers and
embedded thunderstorms. Storm motion is on the low end so the
biggest challenge will be localized heavy rain. However models are
indicating a better shear environment each afternoon so there may
some localized pea sized or slightly larger hail. Temperatures
will be on the increase through the weekend with temperatures in
the 80s and 90s. I did cool off max temperatures Sunday due to
lower 850 temps and increased cloud cover.

Sunday through Wednesday...The previously mentioned low out in the
Pacific will finally make it`s way towards the west coast, again
as a closed low. Models are still having some timing issues but
they all have the low move through the forecast area in some
fashion Monday and Wednesday. This will result in cooler
temperatures and another round of wet, and likely very wet
convection. Interestingly this pattern is typically a good one for
thunderstorms but model guidance is not showing anything but weak
surface based cape and negative LIs for the southeast zones and
the Cascades. Pops were increased accordingly and will go ahead
and hold off on going to wild with the thunderstorm threat at this
time, but stay tuned, certainly there is more to come.
Temperatures will also cool from the very warm weekend with max
temperatures mainly in the 60s and 70s. But this is still above
seasonal averages. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: An upper level low pressure system will reside over KPUW
and KLWS today. Although there is some mid level clouds wrapping
around the low, there has been enough clearing overnight for low
stratus and fog to form across the northern valleys and may
briefly impact KGEG, KSFF and KCOE with MVFR vis possible through
15Z. Isolated to scattered showers will then develop in the
afternoon across much of the region; KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW, and
KLWS TAF sites will see the best chances for showers. Isolated
thunderstorms will also be possible at these TAF locations through
the afternoon with confidence a bit higher for thunderstorms at
KPUW and KLWS TAF locations. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        75  54  80  56  83  60 /  30  20  20  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  74  51  79  54  82  56 /  40  30  20  20  20  10
Pullman        70  49  77  52  82  56 /  60  20  20  10  10  10
Lewiston       76  54  83  58  89  63 /  60  20  10  10  10  10
Colville       80  51  84  54  84  55 /  30  30  20  30  30  20
Sandpoint      74  49  78  51  81  52 /  50  30  40  40  30  20
Kellogg        71  47  77  49  81  54 /  70  40  40  30  20  20
Moses Lake     81  55  87  58  90  61 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      82  61  87  63  89  64 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           82  53  87  55  87  55 /  30  30  10  20  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 271153
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
453 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system will bring scattered afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest
today. Locally heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and small
hail will be possible. Low pressure will gradually depart by
Thursday, bringing a decrease in precipitation chances, but
chances may increase again by early next week across the region.
Temperatures warm back above normal from Wednesday into the end of
the week, with highs pushing into the 80s Thursday onward.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Thursday: The upper level low pressure system that has
brought showers and thunderstorms to the region the last few days
is currently circulating over southeast WA. The low will continue
on a southeast trajectory through this afternoon. This is expected
to focus more widespread shower activity over the southeast
portion of the region underneath the cold pool of the upper level
low. This will primarily include the Palouse, over into the
Central Panhandle Mtns and points southward. The boundary layer
will remain fairly moist across much of the rest of the region. We
will not see a situation where there will be an abundant amount of
drier air that filters into the region out of Canada. As such,
daytime heating is expected to result in afternoon convection
across much of the rest of the region as well (especially over the
mtns), but will be more isolated to scattered in coverage further
away from the center of the low.

Models do show fairly good surface based CAPEs over the east
slopes of the northern Cascade Mtns of around 700 J/KG and not
much in the way of CIN needed to be overcome. The atmosphere
itself will also remain on the juicier side with p-wats neat
three-quarters of an inch. Storm motion will be slow on the order
of 10-15 mph to the south-southwest. All these factors will once
again result in some concerns for heavy rain on recent burn scars
from the 2013 and 2014 fire seasons. Satellite imagery does not
show much mid to high level cloud cover upstream of the Cascades
early this morning. This should result in a good amount of
sunshine today with better surface heating expected compared to
the last couple of afternoons. This should make it easier for this
area to achieve there convective potential and realize the 700
J/G of CAPE. There is also the possibility of multiple slow moving
thunderstorms moving over the same area. This would be a worse
case scenario for the burn scar locations. The good news is that
the best instability looks to be a bit west of where the worst
burn scar locations are such as the Carlton Complex and Mills
Canyon burn scars. Confidence is low that heavy rain would lead to
flash flooding or debris flows, but at least a small risk will be
present for this afternoon.

The upper level low will push into Colorado on Thursday. With that
said, dew points will remain in the 40s and low 50s. CIN will be
weaker over the higher terrain and there will be a good chance for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms once again in the afternoon.
The basin will have a harder time getting any convection going
with a stronger cap in place.

Temperatures will see a warming trend over the next couple of
days. Many locations will be up over or near 80 degrees by
Thursday and back above normal for late May. /SVH

Thursday night through Wednesday...Zonal flow across the region
through the weekend as another closed low drops into central B.C.
Thursday and slowly moves east and out of the area on Sunday.
Meanwhile satellite imagery is also showing a deeper closed low
out near 40N/150W. This second feature will be the dominant
weather feature towards the end of the forecast period.

Thursday night through Saturday night...A closed low currently
seen on water vapor imagery just moving into Haida Qwaii will
drop into central B.C. Thursday night and slowly move east well
north of the border through early Sunday morning. This will put
the region into a zonal/westerly flow. This isn`t typically an
overly wet weather pattern for this area. However model guidance
continues to show little in the way of drying as the flow pattern
changes. PWAT`s remain 150% or more above normal. This additional
moisture will add to the normal destabilization process due to
afternoon heating. Several weak waves moving through the forecast
area will be the icing on the cake for late day showers and
embedded thunderstorms. Storm motion is on the low end so the
biggest challenge will be localized heavy rain. However models are
indicating a better shear environment each afternoon so there may
some localized pea sized or slightly larger hail. Temperatures
will be on the increase through the weekend with temperatures in
the 80s and 90s. I did cool off max temperatures Sunday due to
lower 850 temps and increased cloud cover.

Sunday through Wednesday...The previously mentioned low out in the
Pacific will finally make it`s way towards the west coast, again
as a closed low. Models are still having some timing issues but
they all have the low move through the forecast area in some
fashion Monday and Wednesday. This will result in cooler
temperatures and another round of wet, and likely very wet
convection. Interestingly this pattern is typically a good one for
thunderstorms but model guidance is not showing anything but weak
surface based cape and negative LIs for the southeast zones and
the Cascades. Pops were increased accordingly and will go ahead
and hold off on going to wild with the thunderstorm threat at this
time, but stay tuned, certainly there is more to come.
Temperatures will also cool from the very warm weekend with max
temperatures mainly in the 60s and 70s. But this is still above
seasonal averages. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: An upper level low pressure system will reside over KPUW
and KLWS today. Although there is some mid level clouds wrapping
around the low, there has been enough clearing overnight for low
stratus and fog to form across the northern valleys and may
briefly impact KGEG, KSFF and KCOE with MVFR vis possible through
15Z. Isolated to scattered showers will then develop in the
afternoon across much of the region; KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW, and
KLWS TAF sites will see the best chances for showers. Isolated
thunderstorms will also be possible at these TAF locations through
the afternoon with confidence a bit higher for thunderstorms at
KPUW and KLWS TAF locations. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        75  54  80  56  83  60 /  30  20  20  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  74  51  79  54  82  56 /  40  30  20  20  20  10
Pullman        70  49  77  52  82  56 /  60  20  20  10  10  10
Lewiston       76  54  83  58  89  63 /  60  20  10  10  10  10
Colville       80  51  84  54  84  55 /  30  30  20  30  30  20
Sandpoint      74  49  78  51  81  52 /  50  30  40  40  30  20
Kellogg        71  47  77  49  81  54 /  70  40  40  30  20  20
Moses Lake     81  55  87  58  90  61 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      82  61  87  63  89  64 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           82  53  87  55  87  55 /  30  30  10  20  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 271153
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
453 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system will bring scattered afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest
today. Locally heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and small
hail will be possible. Low pressure will gradually depart by
Thursday, bringing a decrease in precipitation chances, but
chances may increase again by early next week across the region.
Temperatures warm back above normal from Wednesday into the end of
the week, with highs pushing into the 80s Thursday onward.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Thursday: The upper level low pressure system that has
brought showers and thunderstorms to the region the last few days
is currently circulating over southeast WA. The low will continue
on a southeast trajectory through this afternoon. This is expected
to focus more widespread shower activity over the southeast
portion of the region underneath the cold pool of the upper level
low. This will primarily include the Palouse, over into the
Central Panhandle Mtns and points southward. The boundary layer
will remain fairly moist across much of the rest of the region. We
will not see a situation where there will be an abundant amount of
drier air that filters into the region out of Canada. As such,
daytime heating is expected to result in afternoon convection
across much of the rest of the region as well (especially over the
mtns), but will be more isolated to scattered in coverage further
away from the center of the low.

Models do show fairly good surface based CAPEs over the east
slopes of the northern Cascade Mtns of around 700 J/KG and not
much in the way of CIN needed to be overcome. The atmosphere
itself will also remain on the juicier side with p-wats neat
three-quarters of an inch. Storm motion will be slow on the order
of 10-15 mph to the south-southwest. All these factors will once
again result in some concerns for heavy rain on recent burn scars
from the 2013 and 2014 fire seasons. Satellite imagery does not
show much mid to high level cloud cover upstream of the Cascades
early this morning. This should result in a good amount of
sunshine today with better surface heating expected compared to
the last couple of afternoons. This should make it easier for this
area to achieve there convective potential and realize the 700
J/G of CAPE. There is also the possibility of multiple slow moving
thunderstorms moving over the same area. This would be a worse
case scenario for the burn scar locations. The good news is that
the best instability looks to be a bit west of where the worst
burn scar locations are such as the Carlton Complex and Mills
Canyon burn scars. Confidence is low that heavy rain would lead to
flash flooding or debris flows, but at least a small risk will be
present for this afternoon.

The upper level low will push into Colorado on Thursday. With that
said, dew points will remain in the 40s and low 50s. CIN will be
weaker over the higher terrain and there will be a good chance for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms once again in the afternoon.
The basin will have a harder time getting any convection going
with a stronger cap in place.

Temperatures will see a warming trend over the next couple of
days. Many locations will be up over or near 80 degrees by
Thursday and back above normal for late May. /SVH

Thursday night through Wednesday...Zonal flow across the region
through the weekend as another closed low drops into central B.C.
Thursday and slowly moves east and out of the area on Sunday.
Meanwhile satellite imagery is also showing a deeper closed low
out near 40N/150W. This second feature will be the dominant
weather feature towards the end of the forecast period.

Thursday night through Saturday night...A closed low currently
seen on water vapor imagery just moving into Haida Qwaii will
drop into central B.C. Thursday night and slowly move east well
north of the border through early Sunday morning. This will put
the region into a zonal/westerly flow. This isn`t typically an
overly wet weather pattern for this area. However model guidance
continues to show little in the way of drying as the flow pattern
changes. PWAT`s remain 150% or more above normal. This additional
moisture will add to the normal destabilization process due to
afternoon heating. Several weak waves moving through the forecast
area will be the icing on the cake for late day showers and
embedded thunderstorms. Storm motion is on the low end so the
biggest challenge will be localized heavy rain. However models are
indicating a better shear environment each afternoon so there may
some localized pea sized or slightly larger hail. Temperatures
will be on the increase through the weekend with temperatures in
the 80s and 90s. I did cool off max temperatures Sunday due to
lower 850 temps and increased cloud cover.

Sunday through Wednesday...The previously mentioned low out in the
Pacific will finally make it`s way towards the west coast, again
as a closed low. Models are still having some timing issues but
they all have the low move through the forecast area in some
fashion Monday and Wednesday. This will result in cooler
temperatures and another round of wet, and likely very wet
convection. Interestingly this pattern is typically a good one for
thunderstorms but model guidance is not showing anything but weak
surface based cape and negative LIs for the southeast zones and
the Cascades. Pops were increased accordingly and will go ahead
and hold off on going to wild with the thunderstorm threat at this
time, but stay tuned, certainly there is more to come.
Temperatures will also cool from the very warm weekend with max
temperatures mainly in the 60s and 70s. But this is still above
seasonal averages. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: An upper level low pressure system will reside over KPUW
and KLWS today. Although there is some mid level clouds wrapping
around the low, there has been enough clearing overnight for low
stratus and fog to form across the northern valleys and may
briefly impact KGEG, KSFF and KCOE with MVFR vis possible through
15Z. Isolated to scattered showers will then develop in the
afternoon across much of the region; KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW, and
KLWS TAF sites will see the best chances for showers. Isolated
thunderstorms will also be possible at these TAF locations through
the afternoon with confidence a bit higher for thunderstorms at
KPUW and KLWS TAF locations. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        75  54  80  56  83  60 /  30  20  20  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  74  51  79  54  82  56 /  40  30  20  20  20  10
Pullman        70  49  77  52  82  56 /  60  20  20  10  10  10
Lewiston       76  54  83  58  89  63 /  60  20  10  10  10  10
Colville       80  51  84  54  84  55 /  30  30  20  30  30  20
Sandpoint      74  49  78  51  81  52 /  50  30  40  40  30  20
Kellogg        71  47  77  49  81  54 /  70  40  40  30  20  20
Moses Lake     81  55  87  58  90  61 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      82  61  87  63  89  64 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           82  53  87  55  87  55 /  30  30  10  20  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KPQR 271153 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
453 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION FOR LOWER CLOUD DECKS THIS MORNING

.SYNOPSIS...PESKY UPPER LOW OVER NRN ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY PUSH
FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR MASS...WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARMING. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH LATER THIS
WEEKEND...BRING INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDS WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AND A THREAT OF SHOWERS...FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE PESKY PATTERN WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL SLOWLY PUSH ON TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW THAT WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND THE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT...WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORMS POP OVER
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES...AND PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH OVER THE FAR NORTH OREGON CASCADES. NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT THAT
WILL SEE MUCH OF ANY SHOWERS TO SOUTH OF MT HOOD AS FLOW BECOMES LESS
FAVORABLE.  BUT WILL KEEP A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THERE WITH BEST THREAT
OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES. ALL SHOWERS WILL END SOON AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...AFTER MORNING CLOUDS...SHOULD HAVE AN ABUNDANCE OF
SUNSHINE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. COAST WILL BE LAST TO LOSE
THE CLOUDS. SHOULD GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS...BUT COAST WILL HOLD IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS FURTHER ON THU AND FRI...SO SUSPECT THAT THE
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS.  THIS LACK
OF CLOUDS INLAND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 80S.  EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LOW HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST...WILL
STILL HAVE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY OVER AREAS TO EAST OF THE CASCADES
EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE CASCADES CREST. SO WILL KEEP A VERY MINOR
THREAT OF A SHOWER OVER THE HIGH CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS.THAT SAID...MY CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW THAT WILL ANYTHING
OTHER THAN SOME SCRAWNY AFTERNOON CUMULUS.  ROCKEY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE
PACNW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE
A LOT LIKE FRIDAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES EARLY CLEARING TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CASCADE CREST.
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY ON
SUNDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER...TOO. UNDER WESTERLY FLOW
MODELS STILL SUGGEST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE CASCADES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHETHER THESE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
CLEARS OUT OVER THE CASCADES BY THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...MODELS SUGGEST SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...HEADING INTO SOMEWHAT OF A SUMMERTIME STRATUS PATTERN
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HIGH END IFR/LOW END MVFR STRATUS WILL
LINGER NEAR THE COASTLINE WITH PERHAPS SEVERAL HOURS OF CLEARING
ROUGHLY 21-03Z BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE PULLS IT BACK OVER LAND FOR THE
LATE EVENING THROUGH THE MORNING. INLAND TERMINALS WILL ALSO LIKELY
SEE A HIGH END IFR/LOW END MVFR STRATUS DECK 008-015 AGL GENERALLY
DURING A 12Z TO 18Z PERIOD WITH OTHERWISE MAINLY SCT CLOUDS.
MODERATE CUMULUS AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE 18-04Z TODAY MAINLY NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...IFR CIGS HAVE MOVED OVER THE FIELD AND WILL
REMAIN THROUGH AROUND 17Z OR SO AS THEY SHOULD BE FAIRLY THIN.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHALLOW CUMULUS MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN APPROACHES AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CASCADE
CREST AND EAST SLOPES. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. ANOTHER
SET OF LOW STRATUS PROBABLY WILL RETURN LATE OVERNIGHT. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...BROKEN RECORD CONTINUES WITH FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A PAIR OF DOMINANT SWELL TRAINS HAVE ARRIVED
TO THE WATERS AND WILL REMAIN IN SOME FORM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. STILL HAVE SOME FRESH SWELL FROM NORTHWEST WINDS OFF THE
WESTERN BC COAST COMBINING WITH THE SWELLS TO PRODUCE SOMEWHAT
CHOPPY SEAS. COMBINED SEAS WILL HOVER BETWEEN 6 AND 7 FT THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS BEFORE EASING TO AROUND 5 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL STAY FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST WITH ONLY BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED GUSTS PUSHING TO 20 KTS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /JBONK
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 271019
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
319 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA MORE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THERE WERE MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS PRESENT OVER THE CWA AT THIS
TIME. CLOUDS SHOULD FILL IN OVER THE CLEAR AREAS BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE.

MEANWHILE...A CUT-OFF LOW OVER EASTERN WA WILL MOVE INTO ID
TONIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN WA MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE. TODAY SHOULD BE A WARMER DAY
DUE TO WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW AND LESS CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO DESTABILIZE OVER THE CASCADES IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR A RISK OF SHOWERS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT RISK
OF TSTMS NEAR THE CREST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON THU...AND THIS WILL ALLOW A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER FAR NORTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA TO SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTH DURING THE DAY. IT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER.
A WEAKER ONSHORE PRES GRADIENT PLUS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMING OF THE AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LESS
CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING OVER THE CWA. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO A RISK OF SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA ON
FRI. THIS SHOULD INDUCE AN ONSHORE PUSH LATER IN THE DAY. THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY THAT TEMPS ON THE COAST COULD END UP COOLER THAN
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THU
BUT MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER AT MOST
PLACES.

.LONG TERM...
500 MB HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY LOWER THIS WEEKEND WITH A BIT OF AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL CAUSE HIGHS TO COOL
SLIGHTLY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

AN UPPER LOW OFF THE FAR NORTHERN CA COAST WILL EITHER MOVE INTO
OREGON OR WA ON MONDAY. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE MODELS WERE NOT IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HOW THIS WILL UNFOLD. THE GENERAL IDEA
WAS THAT MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL START TO IMPACT
THE CWA ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. THE UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN IN THE VICINITY FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY AS
CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASE. SCHNEIDER/05

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EASTERN WASHINGTON TODAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON. AT THE SURFACE LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE. AIR MASS IS MOIST WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ALSO MARINE
STRATUS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS AND IN THE STRAIT. A CLEARING TREND
WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KSEA...DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TODAY
WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 5K FT. THERE IS A CHANCE MARINE STRATUS WILL
REACH THE TERMINAL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING AND WILL COVER THAT
WITH A TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAF. CLEARING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL BECOME NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. CHB

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRESSURE
INLAND THROUGH THE WEEK. CURRENTLY MODELS KEEP WINDS BELOW 20 KT
TODAY AND THURSDAY IN THE STRAIT. ONSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH
WEST WINDS IN THE STRAIT.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TIL 5 AM THIS MORNING FOR
     THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 271019
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
319 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA MORE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THERE WERE MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS PRESENT OVER THE CWA AT THIS
TIME. CLOUDS SHOULD FILL IN OVER THE CLEAR AREAS BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE.

MEANWHILE...A CUT-OFF LOW OVER EASTERN WA WILL MOVE INTO ID
TONIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN WA MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE. TODAY SHOULD BE A WARMER DAY
DUE TO WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW AND LESS CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO DESTABILIZE OVER THE CASCADES IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR A RISK OF SHOWERS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT RISK
OF TSTMS NEAR THE CREST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON THU...AND THIS WILL ALLOW A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER FAR NORTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA TO SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTH DURING THE DAY. IT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER.
A WEAKER ONSHORE PRES GRADIENT PLUS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMING OF THE AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LESS
CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING OVER THE CWA. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO A RISK OF SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA ON
FRI. THIS SHOULD INDUCE AN ONSHORE PUSH LATER IN THE DAY. THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY THAT TEMPS ON THE COAST COULD END UP COOLER THAN
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THU
BUT MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER AT MOST
PLACES.

.LONG TERM...
500 MB HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY LOWER THIS WEEKEND WITH A BIT OF AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL CAUSE HIGHS TO COOL
SLIGHTLY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

AN UPPER LOW OFF THE FAR NORTHERN CA COAST WILL EITHER MOVE INTO
OREGON OR WA ON MONDAY. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE MODELS WERE NOT IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HOW THIS WILL UNFOLD. THE GENERAL IDEA
WAS THAT MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL START TO IMPACT
THE CWA ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. THE UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN IN THE VICINITY FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY AS
CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASE. SCHNEIDER/05

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EASTERN WASHINGTON TODAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON. AT THE SURFACE LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE. AIR MASS IS MOIST WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ALSO MARINE
STRATUS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS AND IN THE STRAIT. A CLEARING TREND
WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KSEA...DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TODAY
WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 5K FT. THERE IS A CHANCE MARINE STRATUS WILL
REACH THE TERMINAL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING AND WILL COVER THAT
WITH A TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAF. CLEARING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL BECOME NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. CHB

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRESSURE
INLAND THROUGH THE WEEK. CURRENTLY MODELS KEEP WINDS BELOW 20 KT
TODAY AND THURSDAY IN THE STRAIT. ONSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH
WEST WINDS IN THE STRAIT.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TIL 5 AM THIS MORNING FOR
     THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 271019
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
319 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA MORE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THERE WERE MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS PRESENT OVER THE CWA AT THIS
TIME. CLOUDS SHOULD FILL IN OVER THE CLEAR AREAS BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE.

MEANWHILE...A CUT-OFF LOW OVER EASTERN WA WILL MOVE INTO ID
TONIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN WA MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE. TODAY SHOULD BE A WARMER DAY
DUE TO WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW AND LESS CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO DESTABILIZE OVER THE CASCADES IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR A RISK OF SHOWERS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT RISK
OF TSTMS NEAR THE CREST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON THU...AND THIS WILL ALLOW A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER FAR NORTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA TO SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTH DURING THE DAY. IT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER.
A WEAKER ONSHORE PRES GRADIENT PLUS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMING OF THE AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LESS
CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING OVER THE CWA. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO A RISK OF SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA ON
FRI. THIS SHOULD INDUCE AN ONSHORE PUSH LATER IN THE DAY. THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY THAT TEMPS ON THE COAST COULD END UP COOLER THAN
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THU
BUT MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER AT MOST
PLACES.

.LONG TERM...
500 MB HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY LOWER THIS WEEKEND WITH A BIT OF AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL CAUSE HIGHS TO COOL
SLIGHTLY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

AN UPPER LOW OFF THE FAR NORTHERN CA COAST WILL EITHER MOVE INTO
OREGON OR WA ON MONDAY. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE MODELS WERE NOT IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HOW THIS WILL UNFOLD. THE GENERAL IDEA
WAS THAT MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL START TO IMPACT
THE CWA ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. THE UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN IN THE VICINITY FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY AS
CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASE. SCHNEIDER/05

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EASTERN WASHINGTON TODAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON. AT THE SURFACE LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE. AIR MASS IS MOIST WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ALSO MARINE
STRATUS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS AND IN THE STRAIT. A CLEARING TREND
WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KSEA...DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TODAY
WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 5K FT. THERE IS A CHANCE MARINE STRATUS WILL
REACH THE TERMINAL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING AND WILL COVER THAT
WITH A TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAF. CLEARING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL BECOME NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. CHB

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRESSURE
INLAND THROUGH THE WEEK. CURRENTLY MODELS KEEP WINDS BELOW 20 KT
TODAY AND THURSDAY IN THE STRAIT. ONSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH
WEST WINDS IN THE STRAIT.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TIL 5 AM THIS MORNING FOR
     THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 271019
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
319 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA MORE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THERE WERE MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS PRESENT OVER THE CWA AT THIS
TIME. CLOUDS SHOULD FILL IN OVER THE CLEAR AREAS BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE.

MEANWHILE...A CUT-OFF LOW OVER EASTERN WA WILL MOVE INTO ID
TONIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN WA MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE. TODAY SHOULD BE A WARMER DAY
DUE TO WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW AND LESS CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO DESTABILIZE OVER THE CASCADES IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR A RISK OF SHOWERS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT RISK
OF TSTMS NEAR THE CREST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON THU...AND THIS WILL ALLOW A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER FAR NORTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA TO SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTH DURING THE DAY. IT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER.
A WEAKER ONSHORE PRES GRADIENT PLUS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMING OF THE AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LESS
CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING OVER THE CWA. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO A RISK OF SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA ON
FRI. THIS SHOULD INDUCE AN ONSHORE PUSH LATER IN THE DAY. THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY THAT TEMPS ON THE COAST COULD END UP COOLER THAN
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THU
BUT MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER AT MOST
PLACES.

.LONG TERM...
500 MB HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY LOWER THIS WEEKEND WITH A BIT OF AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL CAUSE HIGHS TO COOL
SLIGHTLY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

AN UPPER LOW OFF THE FAR NORTHERN CA COAST WILL EITHER MOVE INTO
OREGON OR WA ON MONDAY. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE MODELS WERE NOT IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HOW THIS WILL UNFOLD. THE GENERAL IDEA
WAS THAT MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL START TO IMPACT
THE CWA ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. THE UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN IN THE VICINITY FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY AS
CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASE. SCHNEIDER/05

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EASTERN WASHINGTON TODAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON. AT THE SURFACE LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE. AIR MASS IS MOIST WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ALSO MARINE
STRATUS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS AND IN THE STRAIT. A CLEARING TREND
WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KSEA...DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TODAY
WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 5K FT. THERE IS A CHANCE MARINE STRATUS WILL
REACH THE TERMINAL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING AND WILL COVER THAT
WITH A TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAF. CLEARING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL BECOME NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. CHB

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRESSURE
INLAND THROUGH THE WEEK. CURRENTLY MODELS KEEP WINDS BELOW 20 KT
TODAY AND THURSDAY IN THE STRAIT. ONSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH
WEST WINDS IN THE STRAIT.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TIL 5 AM THIS MORNING FOR
     THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KPQR 270946
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
245 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...PESKY UPPER LOW OVER NRN ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY PUSH
FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR MASS...WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARMING. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH LATER THIS
WEEKEND...BRING INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDS WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AND A THREAT OF SHOWERS...FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE PESKY PATTERN WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL SLOWLY PUSH ON TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW THAT WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND THE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT...WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORMS POP OVER
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES...AND PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH OVER THE FAR NORTH OREGON CASCADES. NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT THAT
WILL SEE MUCH OF ANY SHOWERS TO SOUTH OF MT HOOD AS FLOW BECOMES LESS
FAVORABLE.  BUT WILL KEEP A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THERE WITH BEST THREAT
OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES. ALL SHOWERS WILL END SOON AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...AFTER MORNING CLOUDS...SHOULD HAVE AN ABUNDANCE OF
SUNSHINE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. COAST WILL BE LAST TO LOSE
THE CLOUDS. SHOULD GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS...BUT COAST WILL HOLD IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS FURTHER ON THU AND FRI...SO SUSPECT THAT THE
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS.  THIS LACK
OF CLOUDS INLAND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 80S.  EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LOW HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST...WILL
STILL HAVE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY OVER AREAS TO EAST OF THE CASCADES
EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE CASCADES CREST. SO WILL KEEP A VERY MINOR
THREAT OF A SHOWER OVER THE HIGH CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS.THAT SAID...MY CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW THAT WILL ANYTHING
OTHER THAN SOME SCRAWNY AFTERNOON CUMULUS.  ROCKEY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE
PACNW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE
A LOT LIKE FRIDAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES EARLY CLEARING TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CASCADE CREST.
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY ON
SUNDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER...TOO. UNDER WESTERLY FLOW
MODELS STILL SUGGEST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE CASCADES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHETHER THESE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
CLEARS OUT OVER THE CASCADES BY THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...MODELS SUGGEST SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...HEADING INTO SOMEWHAT OF A SUMMERTIME STRATUS PATTERN
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HIGH END IFR/LOW END MVFR STRATUS WILL
LINGER NEAR THE COASTLINE WITH PERHAPS SEVERAL HOURS OF CLEARING
ROUGHLY 21-03Z BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE PULLS IT BACK OVER LAND FOR
THE LATE EVENING THROUGH THE MORNING. INLAND TERMINALS WILL LIKELY
SEE A LOWER END MVFR STRATUS DECK 010-015 AGL GENERALLY DURING A
12Z TO 18Z PERIOD WITH OTHERWISE MAINLY SCT CLOUDS. MODERATE
CUMULUS AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE 18-04Z TODAY MAINLY NEAR THE CASCADE
CREST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDS THROUGH ABOUT 14Z WHEN CIGS AT
ROUGHLY 012 POSSIBLY DRIFT OVER THE FIELD FROM THE NORTHWEST. IF
SO...THEY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND BURN OFF BY 17Z OR SO.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHALLOW CUMULUS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
APPROACHES WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AND
EAST SLOPES. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...BROKEN RECORD CONTINUES WITH FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A PAIR OF DOMINANT SWELL TRAINS HAVE ARRIVED
TO THE WATERS AND WILL REMAIN IN SOME FORM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. STILL HAVE SOME FRESH SWELL FROM NORTHWEST WINDS OFF THE
WESTERN BC COAST COMBINING WITH THE SWELLS TO PRODUCE SOMEWHAT
CHOPPY SEAS. COMBINED SEAS WILL HOVER BETWEEN 6 AND 7 FT THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS BEFORE EASING TO AROUND 5 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL STAY FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST WITH ONLY BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED GUSTS PUSHING TO 20 KTS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /JBONK
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 270937
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
237 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system will bring scattered afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest
today. Locally heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and small
hail will be possible. Low pressure will gradually depart by
Thursday, bringing a decrease in precipitation chances, but
chances may increase again by early next week across the region.
Temperatures warm back above normal from Wednesday into the end of
the week, with highs pushing into the 80s Thursday onward.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Thursday: The upper level low pressure system that has
brought showers and thunderstorms to the region the last few days
is currently circulating over southeast WA. The low will continue
on a southeast trajectory through this afternoon. This is expected
to focus more widespread shower activity over the southeast
portion of the region underneath the cold pool of the upper level
low. This will primarily include the Palouse, over into the
Central Panhandle Mtns and points southward. The boundary layer
will remain fairly moist across much of the rest of the region. We
will not see a situation where there will be an abundant amount of
drier air that filters into the region out of Canada. As such,
daytime heating is expected to result in afternoon convection
across much of the rest of the region as well (especially over the
mtns), but will be more isolated to scattered in coverage further
away from the center of the low.

Models do show fairly good surface based CAPEs over the east
slopes of the northern Cascade Mtns of around 700 J/KG and not
much in the way of CIN needed to be overcome. The atmosphere
itself will also remain on the juicier side with p-wats neat
three-quarters of an inch. Storm motion will be slow on the order
of 10-15 mph to the south-southwest. All these factors will once
again result in some concerns for heavy rain on recent burn scars
from the 2013 and 2014 fire seasons. Satellite imagery does not
show much mid to high level cloud cover upstream of the Cascades
early this morning. This should result in a good amount of
sunshine today with better surface heating expected compared to
the last couple of afternoons. This should make it easier for this
area to achieve there convective potential and realize the 700
J/G of CAPE. There is also the possibility of multiple slow moving
thunderstorms moving over the same area. This would be a worse
case scenario for the burn scar locations. The good news is that
the best instability looks to be a bit west of where the worst
burn scar locations are such as the Carlton Complex and Mills
Canyon burn scars. Confidence is low that heavy rain would lead to
flash flooding or debris flows, but at least a small risk will be
present for this afternoon.

The upper level low will push into Colorado on Thursday. With that
said, dew points will remain in the 40s and low 50s. CIN will be
weaker over the higher terrain and there will be a good chance for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms once again in the afternoon.
The basin will have a harder time getting any convection going
with a stronger cap in place.

Temperatures will see a warming trend over the next couple of
days. Many locations will be up over or near 80 degrees by
Thursday and back above normal for late May. /SVH

Thursday night through Wednesday...Zonal flow across the region
through the weekend as another closed low drops into central B.C.
Thursday and slowly moves east and out of the area on Sunday.
Meanwhile satellite imagery is also showing a deeper closed low
out near 40N/150W. This second feature will be the dominant
weather feature towards the end of the forecast period.

Thursday night through Saturday night...A closed low currently
seen on water vapor imagery just moving into Haida Qwaii will
drop into central B.C. Thursday night and slowly move east well
north of the border through early Sunday morning. This will put
the region into a zonal/westerly flow. This isn`t typically an
overly wet weather pattern for this area. However model guidance
continues to show little in the way of drying as the flow pattern
changes. PWAT`s remain 150% or more above normal. This additional
moisture will add to the normal destabilization process due to
afternoon heating. Several weak waves moving through the forecast
area will be the icing on the cake for late day showers and
embedded thunderstorms. Storm motion is on the low end so the
biggest challenge will be localized heavy rain. However models are
indicating a better shear environment each afternoon so there may
some localized pea sized or slightly larger hail. Temperatures
will be on the increase through the weekend with temperatures in
the 80s and 90s. I did cool off max temperatures Sunday due to
lower 850 temps and increased cloud cover.

Sunday through Wednesday...The previously mentioned low out in the
Pacific will finally make it`s way towards the west coast, again
as a closed low. Models are still having some timing issues but
they all have the low move through the forecast area in some
fashion Monday and Wednesday. This will result in cooler
temperatures and another round of wet, and likely very wet
convection. Interestingly this pattern is typically a good one for
thunderstorms but model guidance is not showing anything but weak
surface based cape and negative LIs for the southeast zones and
the Cascades. Pops were increased accordingly and will go ahead
and hold off on going to wild with the thunderstorm threat at this
time, but stay tuned, certainly there is more to come.
Temperatures will also cool from the very warm weekend with max
temperatures mainly in the 60s and 70s. But this is still above
seasonal averages. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Showers have died down this evening. With areas of
clearing and moist low levels patchy fog is expected between 8z-
14z...mainly in the valleys north and east of KGEG-KSFF-KCOE. This
fog will quickly burn off but then showers and isolated
thunderstorms will develop again late Wednesday morning into the
early evening especially in the mountains. With only isolated
thunderstorm coverage expected opted to remove VCTS from the
eastern TAF sites given low confidence if...and precisely when a
storm may occur.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        75  54  80  56  83  60 /  30  20  20  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  74  51  79  54  82  56 /  40  30  20  20  20  10
Pullman        70  49  77  52  82  56 /  60  20  20  10  10  10
Lewiston       76  54  83  58  89  63 /  60  20  10  10  10  10
Colville       80  51  84  54  84  55 /  30  30  20  30  30  20
Sandpoint      74  49  78  51  81  52 /  50  30  40  40  30  20
Kellogg        71  47  77  49  81  54 /  70  40  40  30  20  20
Moses Lake     81  55  87  58  90  61 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      82  61  87  63  89  64 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           82  53  87  55  87  55 /  30  30  10  20  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 270937
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
237 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system will bring scattered afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest
today. Locally heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and small
hail will be possible. Low pressure will gradually depart by
Thursday, bringing a decrease in precipitation chances, but
chances may increase again by early next week across the region.
Temperatures warm back above normal from Wednesday into the end of
the week, with highs pushing into the 80s Thursday onward.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Thursday: The upper level low pressure system that has
brought showers and thunderstorms to the region the last few days
is currently circulating over southeast WA. The low will continue
on a southeast trajectory through this afternoon. This is expected
to focus more widespread shower activity over the southeast
portion of the region underneath the cold pool of the upper level
low. This will primarily include the Palouse, over into the
Central Panhandle Mtns and points southward. The boundary layer
will remain fairly moist across much of the rest of the region. We
will not see a situation where there will be an abundant amount of
drier air that filters into the region out of Canada. As such,
daytime heating is expected to result in afternoon convection
across much of the rest of the region as well (especially over the
mtns), but will be more isolated to scattered in coverage further
away from the center of the low.

Models do show fairly good surface based CAPEs over the east
slopes of the northern Cascade Mtns of around 700 J/KG and not
much in the way of CIN needed to be overcome. The atmosphere
itself will also remain on the juicier side with p-wats neat
three-quarters of an inch. Storm motion will be slow on the order
of 10-15 mph to the south-southwest. All these factors will once
again result in some concerns for heavy rain on recent burn scars
from the 2013 and 2014 fire seasons. Satellite imagery does not
show much mid to high level cloud cover upstream of the Cascades
early this morning. This should result in a good amount of
sunshine today with better surface heating expected compared to
the last couple of afternoons. This should make it easier for this
area to achieve there convective potential and realize the 700
J/G of CAPE. There is also the possibility of multiple slow moving
thunderstorms moving over the same area. This would be a worse
case scenario for the burn scar locations. The good news is that
the best instability looks to be a bit west of where the worst
burn scar locations are such as the Carlton Complex and Mills
Canyon burn scars. Confidence is low that heavy rain would lead to
flash flooding or debris flows, but at least a small risk will be
present for this afternoon.

The upper level low will push into Colorado on Thursday. With that
said, dew points will remain in the 40s and low 50s. CIN will be
weaker over the higher terrain and there will be a good chance for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms once again in the afternoon.
The basin will have a harder time getting any convection going
with a stronger cap in place.

Temperatures will see a warming trend over the next couple of
days. Many locations will be up over or near 80 degrees by
Thursday and back above normal for late May. /SVH

Thursday night through Wednesday...Zonal flow across the region
through the weekend as another closed low drops into central B.C.
Thursday and slowly moves east and out of the area on Sunday.
Meanwhile satellite imagery is also showing a deeper closed low
out near 40N/150W. This second feature will be the dominant
weather feature towards the end of the forecast period.

Thursday night through Saturday night...A closed low currently
seen on water vapor imagery just moving into Haida Qwaii will
drop into central B.C. Thursday night and slowly move east well
north of the border through early Sunday morning. This will put
the region into a zonal/westerly flow. This isn`t typically an
overly wet weather pattern for this area. However model guidance
continues to show little in the way of drying as the flow pattern
changes. PWAT`s remain 150% or more above normal. This additional
moisture will add to the normal destabilization process due to
afternoon heating. Several weak waves moving through the forecast
area will be the icing on the cake for late day showers and
embedded thunderstorms. Storm motion is on the low end so the
biggest challenge will be localized heavy rain. However models are
indicating a better shear environment each afternoon so there may
some localized pea sized or slightly larger hail. Temperatures
will be on the increase through the weekend with temperatures in
the 80s and 90s. I did cool off max temperatures Sunday due to
lower 850 temps and increased cloud cover.

Sunday through Wednesday...The previously mentioned low out in the
Pacific will finally make it`s way towards the west coast, again
as a closed low. Models are still having some timing issues but
they all have the low move through the forecast area in some
fashion Monday and Wednesday. This will result in cooler
temperatures and another round of wet, and likely very wet
convection. Interestingly this pattern is typically a good one for
thunderstorms but model guidance is not showing anything but weak
surface based cape and negative LIs for the southeast zones and
the Cascades. Pops were increased accordingly and will go ahead
and hold off on going to wild with the thunderstorm threat at this
time, but stay tuned, certainly there is more to come.
Temperatures will also cool from the very warm weekend with max
temperatures mainly in the 60s and 70s. But this is still above
seasonal averages. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Showers have died down this evening. With areas of
clearing and moist low levels patchy fog is expected between 8z-
14z...mainly in the valleys north and east of KGEG-KSFF-KCOE. This
fog will quickly burn off but then showers and isolated
thunderstorms will develop again late Wednesday morning into the
early evening especially in the mountains. With only isolated
thunderstorm coverage expected opted to remove VCTS from the
eastern TAF sites given low confidence if...and precisely when a
storm may occur.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        75  54  80  56  83  60 /  30  20  20  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  74  51  79  54  82  56 /  40  30  20  20  20  10
Pullman        70  49  77  52  82  56 /  60  20  20  10  10  10
Lewiston       76  54  83  58  89  63 /  60  20  10  10  10  10
Colville       80  51  84  54  84  55 /  30  30  20  30  30  20
Sandpoint      74  49  78  51  81  52 /  50  30  40  40  30  20
Kellogg        71  47  77  49  81  54 /  70  40  40  30  20  20
Moses Lake     81  55  87  58  90  61 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      82  61  87  63  89  64 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           82  53  87  55  87  55 /  30  30  10  20  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 270536
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1036 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system will bring scattered afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest
through Wednesday. Locally heavy downpours, frequent lightning,
and small hail will be possible. Low pressure will gradually
depart by Thursday, bringing a decrease in precipitation chances,
but chances may increase again by early next week across the
region. Temperatures warm back above normal from Wednesday into
the end of the week, with highs pushing into the 80s Thursday
onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: Satellite imagery shows a continuation of decaying showers
due to the loss of daytime heating and lack of mid level
instability. Meanwhile areas of clearing are taking place with
relative humidities up to 85-100% over many valleys of Northeast
Washington into the Idaho Panhandle. Thus patchy fog was added to
the forecast. Over Southeast Washington into the Central Panhandle
Mountains there is still a chance for scattered showers to develop
overnight as the closed low drops south towards the region with a
bit more mid level instability. A few isolated showers are also
possible overnight for the northern mountains and East Slopes of
the Cascades due to moisture wrapping around the low into this
area.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Showers have died down this evening. With areas of
clearing and moist low levels patchy fog is expected between 8z-
14z...mainly in the valleys north and east of KGEG-KSFF-KCOE. This
fog will quickly burn off but then showers and isolated
thunderstorms will develop again late Wednesday morning into the
early evening especially in the mountains. With only isolated
thunderstorm coverage expected opted to remove VCTS from the
eastern TAF sites given low confidence if...and precisely when a
storm may occur.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  76  54  81  57  83 /  10  30  20  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  49  75  51  80  54  81 /  10  40  30  20  20  20
Pullman        47  71  50  77  51  82 /  30  50  30  20  20  10
Lewiston       54  77  55  84  57  88 /  30  50  30  10  10  10
Colville       49  80  50  85  54  83 /  20  30  20  20  30  30
Sandpoint      48  74  49  79  52  80 /  20  50  30  40  40  30
Kellogg        45  72  48  77  50  81 /  10  70  30  40  40  30
Moses Lake     53  82  56  88  58  91 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      57  83  61  88  64  90 /  20  10  20  10  10  10
Omak           51  83  53  87  56  88 /  20  30  20  10  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 270536
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1036 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system will bring scattered afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest
through Wednesday. Locally heavy downpours, frequent lightning,
and small hail will be possible. Low pressure will gradually
depart by Thursday, bringing a decrease in precipitation chances,
but chances may increase again by early next week across the
region. Temperatures warm back above normal from Wednesday into
the end of the week, with highs pushing into the 80s Thursday
onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: Satellite imagery shows a continuation of decaying showers
due to the loss of daytime heating and lack of mid level
instability. Meanwhile areas of clearing are taking place with
relative humidities up to 85-100% over many valleys of Northeast
Washington into the Idaho Panhandle. Thus patchy fog was added to
the forecast. Over Southeast Washington into the Central Panhandle
Mountains there is still a chance for scattered showers to develop
overnight as the closed low drops south towards the region with a
bit more mid level instability. A few isolated showers are also
possible overnight for the northern mountains and East Slopes of
the Cascades due to moisture wrapping around the low into this
area.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Showers have died down this evening. With areas of
clearing and moist low levels patchy fog is expected between 8z-
14z...mainly in the valleys north and east of KGEG-KSFF-KCOE. This
fog will quickly burn off but then showers and isolated
thunderstorms will develop again late Wednesday morning into the
early evening especially in the mountains. With only isolated
thunderstorm coverage expected opted to remove VCTS from the
eastern TAF sites given low confidence if...and precisely when a
storm may occur.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  76  54  81  57  83 /  10  30  20  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  49  75  51  80  54  81 /  10  40  30  20  20  20
Pullman        47  71  50  77  51  82 /  30  50  30  20  20  10
Lewiston       54  77  55  84  57  88 /  30  50  30  10  10  10
Colville       49  80  50  85  54  83 /  20  30  20  20  30  30
Sandpoint      48  74  49  79  52  80 /  20  50  30  40  40  30
Kellogg        45  72  48  77  50  81 /  10  70  30  40  40  30
Moses Lake     53  82  56  88  58  91 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      57  83  61  88  64  90 /  20  10  20  10  10  10
Omak           51  83  53  87  56  88 /  20  30  20  10  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 270536
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1036 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system will bring scattered afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest
through Wednesday. Locally heavy downpours, frequent lightning,
and small hail will be possible. Low pressure will gradually
depart by Thursday, bringing a decrease in precipitation chances,
but chances may increase again by early next week across the
region. Temperatures warm back above normal from Wednesday into
the end of the week, with highs pushing into the 80s Thursday
onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: Satellite imagery shows a continuation of decaying showers
due to the loss of daytime heating and lack of mid level
instability. Meanwhile areas of clearing are taking place with
relative humidities up to 85-100% over many valleys of Northeast
Washington into the Idaho Panhandle. Thus patchy fog was added to
the forecast. Over Southeast Washington into the Central Panhandle
Mountains there is still a chance for scattered showers to develop
overnight as the closed low drops south towards the region with a
bit more mid level instability. A few isolated showers are also
possible overnight for the northern mountains and East Slopes of
the Cascades due to moisture wrapping around the low into this
area.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Showers have died down this evening. With areas of
clearing and moist low levels patchy fog is expected between 8z-
14z...mainly in the valleys north and east of KGEG-KSFF-KCOE. This
fog will quickly burn off but then showers and isolated
thunderstorms will develop again late Wednesday morning into the
early evening especially in the mountains. With only isolated
thunderstorm coverage expected opted to remove VCTS from the
eastern TAF sites given low confidence if...and precisely when a
storm may occur.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  76  54  81  57  83 /  10  30  20  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  49  75  51  80  54  81 /  10  40  30  20  20  20
Pullman        47  71  50  77  51  82 /  30  50  30  20  20  10
Lewiston       54  77  55  84  57  88 /  30  50  30  10  10  10
Colville       49  80  50  85  54  83 /  20  30  20  20  30  30
Sandpoint      48  74  49  79  52  80 /  20  50  30  40  40  30
Kellogg        45  72  48  77  50  81 /  10  70  30  40  40  30
Moses Lake     53  82  56  88  58  91 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      57  83  61  88  64  90 /  20  10  20  10  10  10
Omak           51  83  53  87  56  88 /  20  30  20  10  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 270536
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1036 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system will bring scattered afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest
through Wednesday. Locally heavy downpours, frequent lightning,
and small hail will be possible. Low pressure will gradually
depart by Thursday, bringing a decrease in precipitation chances,
but chances may increase again by early next week across the
region. Temperatures warm back above normal from Wednesday into
the end of the week, with highs pushing into the 80s Thursday
onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: Satellite imagery shows a continuation of decaying showers
due to the loss of daytime heating and lack of mid level
instability. Meanwhile areas of clearing are taking place with
relative humidities up to 85-100% over many valleys of Northeast
Washington into the Idaho Panhandle. Thus patchy fog was added to
the forecast. Over Southeast Washington into the Central Panhandle
Mountains there is still a chance for scattered showers to develop
overnight as the closed low drops south towards the region with a
bit more mid level instability. A few isolated showers are also
possible overnight for the northern mountains and East Slopes of
the Cascades due to moisture wrapping around the low into this
area.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Showers have died down this evening. With areas of
clearing and moist low levels patchy fog is expected between 8z-
14z...mainly in the valleys north and east of KGEG-KSFF-KCOE. This
fog will quickly burn off but then showers and isolated
thunderstorms will develop again late Wednesday morning into the
early evening especially in the mountains. With only isolated
thunderstorm coverage expected opted to remove VCTS from the
eastern TAF sites given low confidence if...and precisely when a
storm may occur.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  76  54  81  57  83 /  10  30  20  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  49  75  51  80  54  81 /  10  40  30  20  20  20
Pullman        47  71  50  77  51  82 /  30  50  30  20  20  10
Lewiston       54  77  55  84  57  88 /  30  50  30  10  10  10
Colville       49  80  50  85  54  83 /  20  30  20  20  30  30
Sandpoint      48  74  49  79  52  80 /  20  50  30  40  40  30
Kellogg        45  72  48  77  50  81 /  10  70  30  40  40  30
Moses Lake     53  82  56  88  58  91 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      57  83  61  88  64  90 /  20  10  20  10  10  10
Omak           51  83  53  87  56  88 /  20  30  20  10  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSEW 270358
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH WARMER AND SUNNIER WEATHER AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. AN
UPPER TROUGH COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND COOLING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING ALONG THE WA/ID BORDER
THIS EVENING. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW IS MAINLY AFFECTING
EASTERN WA ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CASCADES.
THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS IT SHIFTS SE INTO CENTRAL
ID. MEANWHILE...WESTERN WA IS STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW WITH STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. HOWEVER...IT
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE MORE SUNBREAKS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE
INTERIOR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE CASCADES FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE CREST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAKER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR LESS
CLOUD COVER AND WARMER WEATHER. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY LOWER
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL CAUSE HIGHS TO COOL SLIGHTLY BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

AN UPPER LOW OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE TO THE WEST
COAST MONDAY. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH HOW THIS WILL UNFOLD. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT
MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL START TO IMPACT WESTERN
WASHINGTON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW NEARS FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY AS CLOUDS
AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASE. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EASTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL
EASE OVERNIGHT. AIR MASS IS MOIST WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
IS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. MARINE STRATUS IS LIKELY TO RETURN TO AT LEAST
SOME AREAS BY MORNING WITH MVFR CEILINGS. A CLEARING TREND WILL
BEGIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KSEA...DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. CEILINGS 6-9K FT WILL PERSIST THIS
EVENING. ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT SEEM STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING STRATUS
INLAND TO THE TERMINAL FROM THE COAST. BEST GUESS IS CONTINUED VFR
WITH CEILINGS PERHAPS GETTING AS LOW AS 4K FT. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRESSURE
INLAND THROUGH THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THEN EASE BY MORNING. CURRENTLY
MODELS KEEP WINDS BELOW 20 KT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK IN THE
STRAIT. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 270358
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH WARMER AND SUNNIER WEATHER AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. AN
UPPER TROUGH COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND COOLING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING ALONG THE WA/ID BORDER
THIS EVENING. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW IS MAINLY AFFECTING
EASTERN WA ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CASCADES.
THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS IT SHIFTS SE INTO CENTRAL
ID. MEANWHILE...WESTERN WA IS STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW WITH STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. HOWEVER...IT
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE MORE SUNBREAKS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE
INTERIOR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE CASCADES FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE CREST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAKER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR LESS
CLOUD COVER AND WARMER WEATHER. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY LOWER
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL CAUSE HIGHS TO COOL SLIGHTLY BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

AN UPPER LOW OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE TO THE WEST
COAST MONDAY. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH HOW THIS WILL UNFOLD. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT
MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL START TO IMPACT WESTERN
WASHINGTON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW NEARS FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY AS CLOUDS
AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASE. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EASTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL
EASE OVERNIGHT. AIR MASS IS MOIST WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
IS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. MARINE STRATUS IS LIKELY TO RETURN TO AT LEAST
SOME AREAS BY MORNING WITH MVFR CEILINGS. A CLEARING TREND WILL
BEGIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KSEA...DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. CEILINGS 6-9K FT WILL PERSIST THIS
EVENING. ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT SEEM STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING STRATUS
INLAND TO THE TERMINAL FROM THE COAST. BEST GUESS IS CONTINUED VFR
WITH CEILINGS PERHAPS GETTING AS LOW AS 4K FT. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH LOWER PRESSURE
INLAND THROUGH THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THEN EASE BY MORNING. CURRENTLY
MODELS KEEP WINDS BELOW 20 KT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK IN THE
STRAIT. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KOTX 270347
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
847 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system will bring scattered afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest
through Wednesday. Locally heavy downpours, frequent lightning,
and small hail will be possible. Low pressure will gradually
depart by Thursday, bringing a decrease in precipitation chances,
but chances may increase again by early next week across the
region. Temperatures warm back above normal from Wednesday into
the end of the week, with highs pushing into the 80s Thursday
onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: Satellite imagery indicated a broad closed low over the
Eastern Columbia Basin with showers rotating around the periphery
of this low over the northern mountains near the Canadian
border...and then south towards Quincy. Overall convection has
been on the decrease this evening with the loss of daytime heating
and expect this trend to continue into the night with the latest
model runs now not showing much mid level instability to keep
convection going. The one possible exception is over Southeast
Washington, Lewiston area, and Central Panhandle Mountains where
models show a bit more instability overnight as the low center
drops south towards this area. However even here the NAM only
shows MUCAPE values overnight of 100-200 J/KG with the GFS showing
no MUCAPE. For this reason the slight chance of thunderstorms for
the overnight hours was removed in these areas.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: An upper level low pressure circulating over KGEG at 00Z
Wednesday will weaken and move to near KMYL by 00Z Thursday. The
proximity of hti slow and a moist air mass will generate
widespread SHRA and TSRA this evening with most TAF sites subject
to showers and possibly a brief thunderstorm with MVFR cielings
and vis through 03-04Z. Shoers will become isolated after 04Z but
activity will increase Wednesday afternoon again. The KMWH and
KEAT will be at a smaller risk of storms on Wednesday and may be
missed altogether...while storms will be less widespread but still
present in the vicinity of the eastern TAF sites. /MJF



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  76  54  81  57  83 /  10  30  20  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  49  75  51  80  54  81 /  20  40  30  20  20  20
Pullman        47  71  50  77  51  82 /  30  50  30  20  20  10
Lewiston       54  77  55  84  57  88 /  30  50  30  10  10  10
Colville       49  80  50  85  54  83 /  40  30  20  20  30  30
Sandpoint      48  74  49  79  52  80 /  20  50  30  40  40  30
Kellogg        45  72  48  77  50  81 /  20  70  30  40  40  30
Moses Lake     53  82  56  88  58  91 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      57  83  61  88  64  90 /  20  10  20  10  10  10
Omak           51  83  53  87  56  88 /  20  30  20  10  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 270347
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
847 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system will bring scattered afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest
through Wednesday. Locally heavy downpours, frequent lightning,
and small hail will be possible. Low pressure will gradually
depart by Thursday, bringing a decrease in precipitation chances,
but chances may increase again by early next week across the
region. Temperatures warm back above normal from Wednesday into
the end of the week, with highs pushing into the 80s Thursday
onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: Satellite imagery indicated a broad closed low over the
Eastern Columbia Basin with showers rotating around the periphery
of this low over the northern mountains near the Canadian
border...and then south towards Quincy. Overall convection has
been on the decrease this evening with the loss of daytime heating
and expect this trend to continue into the night with the latest
model runs now not showing much mid level instability to keep
convection going. The one possible exception is over Southeast
Washington, Lewiston area, and Central Panhandle Mountains where
models show a bit more instability overnight as the low center
drops south towards this area. However even here the NAM only
shows MUCAPE values overnight of 100-200 J/KG with the GFS showing
no MUCAPE. For this reason the slight chance of thunderstorms for
the overnight hours was removed in these areas.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: An upper level low pressure circulating over KGEG at 00Z
Wednesday will weaken and move to near KMYL by 00Z Thursday. The
proximity of hti slow and a moist air mass will generate
widespread SHRA and TSRA this evening with most TAF sites subject
to showers and possibly a brief thunderstorm with MVFR cielings
and vis through 03-04Z. Shoers will become isolated after 04Z but
activity will increase Wednesday afternoon again. The KMWH and
KEAT will be at a smaller risk of storms on Wednesday and may be
missed altogether...while storms will be less widespread but still
present in the vicinity of the eastern TAF sites. /MJF



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  76  54  81  57  83 /  10  30  20  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  49  75  51  80  54  81 /  20  40  30  20  20  20
Pullman        47  71  50  77  51  82 /  30  50  30  20  20  10
Lewiston       54  77  55  84  57  88 /  30  50  30  10  10  10
Colville       49  80  50  85  54  83 /  40  30  20  20  30  30
Sandpoint      48  74  49  79  52  80 /  20  50  30  40  40  30
Kellogg        45  72  48  77  50  81 /  20  70  30  40  40  30
Moses Lake     53  82  56  88  58  91 /  20  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      57  83  61  88  64  90 /  20  10  20  10  10  10
Omak           51  83  53  87  56  88 /  20  30  20  10  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 270343
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
842 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EASTERN WA
WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE INTO IDAHO TONIGHT AND WED. THE LOW WILL THEN
MOVE OFF TO THE E AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM
OFF THE PACIFIC. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE COURSE OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN PROGRESSIVELY FEWER CLOUDS AND
WARMING TEMPS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES WILL
LIKELY BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES...MORE CLOUDS...AND INCREASING
SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...EVENING UPDATE...HAVE HAD A
FEW CLOSE CALLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLIER THIS EVENING WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TRYING TO SNEAK OVER THE SW WASHINGTON
CASCADES. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY STAYED EAST OF THE CASCADES...BUT MOST
LIKELY SAW BRIEF HEAVY RAIN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ROTATE OVER FAR EASTERN WASHINGTON THIS
EVENING AND THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA BORDER. MARINE STRATUS DISSIPATED QUITE A
BIT TODAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING SUN THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. MARINE STRATUS HAS ALREADY RETURNED TO THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST...AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH
THE COASTAL GAPS OVERNIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS
VALID.../27

THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD INTO IDAHO TONIGHT AND
WED. THIS WILL ALLOW HEIGHTS TO GRADUALLY RISE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH TOWARD THE PAC NW. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE MARINE LAYER WILL ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AS THE
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. SO EXPECT LESS AND LESS OVERNIGHT MARINE STRATUS
INTRUSION AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEK. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS
WILL FILL IN OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE VALLEY TONIGHT AND WED
MORNING...BUT THE CLOUDS WILL BE THINNER AND THINK THAT CLOUD BURN
OFF
WILL BE QUITE A BIT SOONER THAN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE INLAND PUSH LOOKS EVEN WEAKER FOR THU AND FRI
MORNINGS...AND IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN STRATUS FREE. THE COMBINATION OF DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND A
GRADUALLY WARMING AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 70S ON
WED AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S THU AND FRI. NW FLOW SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS AT THE COAST CAPPED IN THE 60S.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE
CREST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IT
APPEARS THAT WRAP AROUND FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
WILL KEEP SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE CASCADES THROUGH THU. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FRI AS WE DEVELOP
W/SW FLOW ALOFT. PYLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE
PACNW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE
A LOT LIKE FRIDAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES EARLY CLEARING TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CASCADE CREST.
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY ON
SUNDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER...TOO. UNDER WESTERLY FLOW
MODELS STILL SUGGEST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE CASCADES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHETHER THESE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
CLEARS OUT OVER THE CASCADES BY THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...MODELS SUGGEST SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...MARINE CLOUDS WORKING ITS WAY BACK TO THE COAST THIS
EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS EXPECTED. STRATUS AROUND
5000-7000 FEET ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON ADVANCING INTO THE
INTERIOR OF NW OREGON. BKN TO OVC CIGS GENERALLY NORTH OF KUAO.
MODELS ALL SHOW ENOUGH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO INDICATE
MORE MARINE CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE SHALLOWER THAN TODAY. SO CIGS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY MVFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE IFR ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY
NEAR KEUG. THE LOWER INVERSION SHOULD LEAD TO EARLIER CLEARING ON
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY BY NOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WED. THEN A LOWER LAYER SHOULD FORM PROVIDED
ENOUGH CLEARING FROM THE HIGHER LAYER. ANY MVFR CIGS THAT FORM IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN THE 18Z TO 20Z WED TIME FRAME. /MH

&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. WILL BEGIN
TO SEE A MORE DOMINANT PAIR OF SWELL TRAINS ARRIVE FROM WELL OFF
TO THE WEST AND THE DISTANT SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY STILL HAVE SOME
FRESH SWELL FROM WINDS OFF THE WESTERN BC COAST TO COMBINE AND
PRODUCE SOMEWHAT CHOPPY AND CONFUSED SEAS. ON THE UP SIDE...
DOMINANT SEAS WILL ONLY BRIEFLY COMBINE TO AROUND 7 FT MAXIMUM AT
TIMES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND THUS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. OVERALL WINDS WILL STAY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH
ONLY BRIEF AND LOCALIZED GUSTS PUSHING OVER 20 KTS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WATERS. /JBONK/PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 270343
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
842 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EASTERN WA
WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE INTO IDAHO TONIGHT AND WED. THE LOW WILL THEN
MOVE OFF TO THE E AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM
OFF THE PACIFIC. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE COURSE OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN PROGRESSIVELY FEWER CLOUDS AND
WARMING TEMPS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES WILL
LIKELY BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES...MORE CLOUDS...AND INCREASING
SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...EVENING UPDATE...HAVE HAD A
FEW CLOSE CALLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLIER THIS EVENING WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TRYING TO SNEAK OVER THE SW WASHINGTON
CASCADES. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY STAYED EAST OF THE CASCADES...BUT MOST
LIKELY SAW BRIEF HEAVY RAIN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ROTATE OVER FAR EASTERN WASHINGTON THIS
EVENING AND THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA BORDER. MARINE STRATUS DISSIPATED QUITE A
BIT TODAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING SUN THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. MARINE STRATUS HAS ALREADY RETURNED TO THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST...AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH
THE COASTAL GAPS OVERNIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS
VALID.../27

THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD INTO IDAHO TONIGHT AND
WED. THIS WILL ALLOW HEIGHTS TO GRADUALLY RISE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH TOWARD THE PAC NW. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE MARINE LAYER WILL ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AS THE
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. SO EXPECT LESS AND LESS OVERNIGHT MARINE STRATUS
INTRUSION AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEK. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS
WILL FILL IN OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE VALLEY TONIGHT AND WED
MORNING...BUT THE CLOUDS WILL BE THINNER AND THINK THAT CLOUD BURN
OFF
WILL BE QUITE A BIT SOONER THAN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE INLAND PUSH LOOKS EVEN WEAKER FOR THU AND FRI
MORNINGS...AND IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN STRATUS FREE. THE COMBINATION OF DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND A
GRADUALLY WARMING AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 70S ON
WED AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S THU AND FRI. NW FLOW SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS AT THE COAST CAPPED IN THE 60S.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE
CREST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IT
APPEARS THAT WRAP AROUND FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
WILL KEEP SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE CASCADES THROUGH THU. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FRI AS WE DEVELOP
W/SW FLOW ALOFT. PYLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE
PACNW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE
A LOT LIKE FRIDAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES EARLY CLEARING TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CASCADE CREST.
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY ON
SUNDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER...TOO. UNDER WESTERLY FLOW
MODELS STILL SUGGEST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE CASCADES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHETHER THESE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
CLEARS OUT OVER THE CASCADES BY THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...MODELS SUGGEST SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...MARINE CLOUDS WORKING ITS WAY BACK TO THE COAST THIS
EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS EXPECTED. STRATUS AROUND
5000-7000 FEET ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON ADVANCING INTO THE
INTERIOR OF NW OREGON. BKN TO OVC CIGS GENERALLY NORTH OF KUAO.
MODELS ALL SHOW ENOUGH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO INDICATE
MORE MARINE CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE SHALLOWER THAN TODAY. SO CIGS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY MVFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE IFR ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY
NEAR KEUG. THE LOWER INVERSION SHOULD LEAD TO EARLIER CLEARING ON
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY BY NOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WED. THEN A LOWER LAYER SHOULD FORM PROVIDED
ENOUGH CLEARING FROM THE HIGHER LAYER. ANY MVFR CIGS THAT FORM IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN THE 18Z TO 20Z WED TIME FRAME. /MH

&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. WILL BEGIN
TO SEE A MORE DOMINANT PAIR OF SWELL TRAINS ARRIVE FROM WELL OFF
TO THE WEST AND THE DISTANT SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY STILL HAVE SOME
FRESH SWELL FROM WINDS OFF THE WESTERN BC COAST TO COMBINE AND
PRODUCE SOMEWHAT CHOPPY AND CONFUSED SEAS. ON THE UP SIDE...
DOMINANT SEAS WILL ONLY BRIEFLY COMBINE TO AROUND 7 FT MAXIMUM AT
TIMES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND THUS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. OVERALL WINDS WILL STAY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH
ONLY BRIEF AND LOCALIZED GUSTS PUSHING OVER 20 KTS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WATERS. /JBONK/PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




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