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000
FXUS66 KSEW 241025
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY
AS A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME
RAIN BACK TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING RAIN AND LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER WET AND BREEZY AT TIMES
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM....LATEST RADAR AND OBS INDICATE SHOWERS ARE PERSISTING
ACROSS WRN WA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH
A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER THE AREA. LIGHTNING DETECTION IS STILL
PICKING UP A FEW STRIKES NEAR THE W ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT...BUT
NOTHING OVER THE INTERIOR. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE WANING COMPARED TO
LAST EVENING AND MODELS SHOW THIS DECREASING TREND TO CONTINUE.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS STILL ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER
DEVELOPING SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PAC NW.

THE LATEST 00Z/06Z MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SEEN ON WV IMAGERY TRACKING
EWD NEAR 40 N INSIDE 140 W. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIVING SWD OVER THE
PACIFIC IS IN THE PROCESS OF PHASING WITH SRN STREAM MOISTURE.
CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS WITH THE
DEEPENING LOW APPROACHING 40 N/130 W TONIGHT. HOW DEEP THE LOW
BECOMES AND EXACTLY HOW IT CONSOLIDATES AND TRACKS TO THE N/NE WILL
DETERMINE HOW WINDY WE GET HERE IN PARTS OF WRN WA.

MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A WARM FRONT WILL REACH SRN PORTIONS OF WRN WA
THIS EVENING WITH A TRIPLE POINT FEATURE JUST OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE COAST WILL CREATE STRONG CROSS CASCADE GRADIENTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG E WINDS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS EXTENDING AS FAR W
AS THE I405/BELLEVUE VICINITY. THE 00Z WRFGFS AND 00Z/06Z NAM12
SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE WIND TO SOME DEGREE BUT STILL SHOW
SOME 25-30 KT WIND MAXIMUMS ALONG THE FOOTHILL WHICH BRIEFLY EXTEND
TO I405 AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. CROSS SECTION DISPLAYS ON THE
WRFGFS/NAM12 BOTH SHOW SOME WEAK FLOW REVERSAL AT 700 MB AND 30-40
KT JUST OFF THE SURFACE E OF LAKE WASHINGTON. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR AREAS E OF LAKE WASHINGTON INCLUDING BELLEVUE AND
VICINITY FOR GUSTS 45-50 MPH...STRONGEST CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS.
THE ADVISORY WILL RUN THROUGH 18Z FOR THE FOOTHILLS BUT END SOONER
AT 12Z FOR THE BELLEVUE ZONE SINCE STRONGER WINDS THERE WILL BE
BRIEF.

LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT OFFSHORE WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY OUTRUN THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW FEATURE OFF NRN CA/OREGON. VIRTUALLY ALL THE MODELS WANT
TO CONSOLIDATE THE LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX AS IT LIFTS N-NE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO BE FASTER GIVING THE SYSTEM LESS
TIME TO PHASE WITH THE NRN STREAM TROUGH. THIS RESULTS IN A
STRETCHED OUT SURFACE LOW FEATURE WITH THE BULK OF ENERGY GOING
INLAND S OF OUR AREA. OTHER MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW WHICH ALLOWS FOR BETTER CONSOLIDATION AS IT
APPROACHES THE N OREGON/S WA COASTS. 00Z GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUNS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT ON SLOWLY FILLING THE LOW AND TRACKING IT NE THROUGH
SRN WA NEAR PUGET SOUND. USUALLY THE ECMWF IS THE FAVORED MODEL AS
IT TENDS TO HANDLE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE THE BEST. THIS
IS HAPPENS TO BE THE STRONGEST OF THE MODELS WHICH STILL SHOWS
DECENT PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE LOW AND A +12-13 MB KBLI-KPDX
GRADIENT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR PUGET SOUND.
AS USUAL...THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS AND THE MESO MODELS FROM THE
NAM12 TO THE WRFGFS DO NOT CLEARLY SUPPORT THE STRONGER ECMWF
SOLUTION. TAKING EVERYTHING INTO ACCOUNT...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS IN WRN WA HAS DECREASED. THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WHICH
WAS TONED DOWN LAST EVENING WILL BE CONTINUED WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF TO THE NE ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER IN THE MID 50S
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL FEEL RATHER CHILLY GIVEN THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...A LULL OR BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY
BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING. THE 00Z MODELS HAVE
TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH CONTAINS
THE REMNANTS OF AN EX-TROPICAL SYSTEM. FORTUNATELY IT WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT RAIN AMOUNTS. THERE WILL BE A LOT
OF GRADIENT WITH THIS LOW AND LOCATIONS PRONE TO SE WIND...LIKE
WHIDBEY ISLAND NWD...COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS ON TUESDAY. MODELS
WEAKEN THE LOW AS IT CROSSES NEAR OR JUST N OF WA SO STRONG WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER OTHER INLAND AREAS AT THIS POINT.

YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS SET TO ARRIVE MID WEEK. MODELS
DIVERGE ON THE LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION BY THURSDAY SO IT IS
DIFFICULT TO TELL WHETHER ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR AREA.
THE ECMWF SHIFTS THE TROUGH FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE KEEPING A TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW.  MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS BUT
AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT. THE SKOKOMISH RIVER
IN MASON COUNTY FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING AND FLOODING IS
NO LONGER EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. AIR MASS
STABLE. WARM FRONT MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT.

CEILINGS STILL IN THE 4000 TO 6000 FOOT RANGE OVER THE INTERIOR IN
THE WAKE OF A BAND OF SHOWERS THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
CEILINGS ALONG THE COAST AOA 10000 FEET. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE OVER
THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING TO AOA 10000 FEET. WARM FRONT MOVING UP
FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING 00Z-06Z TO THE 3500 TO
5000 FOOT RANGE WITH RAIN BEGINNING AT THAT TIME AS WELL.

KSEA...CEILINGS 4000 TO 6000 FEET IMPROVE TO AOA 10000 FEET BY 16Z.
CEILINGS LOWERING AROUND 03Z TONIGHT BACK DOWN TO NEAR 4000 FEET
WITH RAIN. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 4 TO 8 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHEAST LATER
THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY 8 TO 12 KNOTS AFTER 03Z WITH
POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY WITH HIGHER PRESSURE EAST OF
THE CASCADES AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH
THE WATERS TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE OREGON
WATERS ON SATURDAY REACHING THE WESTERN WASHINGTON INTERIOR LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS THE
LOW APPROACHES. LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS HAVE WEAKENED THE SURFACE
LOW AS IT REACHES WESTERN WASHINGTON SO HAVE KEPT WINDS BELOW GALE.
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE INLAND WATERS BEHIND THE LOW SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS
SUNDAY AND REMAINING INTO MONDAY. FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING
985 MB LOW APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL BRING AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS BACK TO A PORTION OF THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH
     SATURDAY MORNING.
     WIND ADVISORY FOR BELLEVUE AND VICINITY TONIGHT.

PZ...NONE.



&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML











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000
FXUS66 KPQR 241002
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
302 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN INTO SW OREGON
THIS MORNING AND ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS
THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY EASED THIS MORNING BUT STRATIFORM RAIN WILL
RETURN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO INDUCE OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE. THE NORTH
ZONES SHOULD BE DRY FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

A LOW WELL OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. ALTHOUGH MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW...AND THE GFS HAS CONSOLIDATED THE SYSTEM INTO ONE
SINGLE LOW INSTEAD OF AN ELONGATED TWO...THERE ARE STILL
DISCREPANCIES ON THE STRENGTH. RAIN IS CERTAIN BASED ON THE TRACK BUT
WINDS WILL DEPEND VERY MUCH ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW SO CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER IN THAT REGARD WITH THE SYSTEM. THE NAM AND ECM SHOW
SLIGHTLY SW FLOW THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING WHICH
WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER WINDS THAN THE SLIGHTLY SE FLOW
DEPICTED BY THE GFS. FAVORED THE NAM/ECM SOLUTION WITH COASTAL WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ON THE IMMEDIATE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST...AND VALLEY WIND GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 45 MPH
SATURDAY EVENING BUT THESE NUMBERS MAY CHANGE AS THE MODELS HOPEFULLY
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY...SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHORT-WAVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO NEAR CASCADE PASS LEVELS SUNDAY. WEAK RIDGING MOVES
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCES
DWINDLING BRIEFLY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. BOWEN/TJ

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM...INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANA...WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING CONTINUED RAIN AND
WINDS ALONG THE COAST. SHORTWAVES WILL SUPPORT RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BEGINNING AROUND THURSDAY THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
TO THE EXTENT THAT CLIMO SEEMS THE BEST BET AT THIS POINT FOR THE
REMAINING 24 HRS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  BOWEN/27

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THIS MORNING...MAY BE A FEW SPOTS OF MVFR
CIGS. AFTER 18Z A WARM FRONT LIFTING N WILL SPREAD SOME RAIN N INTO
NW OREGON...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR...WITH
RAIN DECREASING AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO WA.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z...BEFORE A
MORE GENERAL RAIN DEVELOPS. ALTHOUGH UNLIKELY...THERE IS ABOUT A 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SEEING A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BEFORE 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS TODAY AS LIGHT S WINDS BACK
AROUND TO THE E LATE IN THE DAY. A LOW PRES SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN TO AROUND 995 MB AND APPROACH FROM THE SW TONIGHT...THEN MOVE
N THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS SAT BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER WESTERN
WA LATE SAT. THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW ARE STILL IN
QUESTION...BUT OVERALL EXPECTATION IS FOR SOUTHERLY GALES WITH THIS
LOW SAT. THE GALES WILL BRING STEEP SEAS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS EXPECTED
TO PEAK AROUND 17 TO 20 FT LATE SAT...BUT AGAIN...THIS WILL DEPEND
ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW.

ONCE THE LOW MOVES INLAND MON EVENING...WINDS WILL TURN TO BACK
TO THE W AND DECREASE ALONG WITH SEAS SUBSIDING. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE W EARLY NEXT WEEK...AROUND MON NIGHT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     7 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 241002
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
302 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN INTO SW OREGON
THIS MORNING AND ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS
THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY EASED THIS MORNING BUT STRATIFORM RAIN WILL
RETURN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO INDUCE OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE. THE NORTH
ZONES SHOULD BE DRY FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

A LOW WELL OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. ALTHOUGH MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW...AND THE GFS HAS CONSOLIDATED THE SYSTEM INTO ONE
SINGLE LOW INSTEAD OF AN ELONGATED TWO...THERE ARE STILL
DISCREPANCIES ON THE STRENGTH. RAIN IS CERTAIN BASED ON THE TRACK BUT
WINDS WILL DEPEND VERY MUCH ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW SO CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER IN THAT REGARD WITH THE SYSTEM. THE NAM AND ECM SHOW
SLIGHTLY SW FLOW THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING WHICH
WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER WINDS THAN THE SLIGHTLY SE FLOW
DEPICTED BY THE GFS. FAVORED THE NAM/ECM SOLUTION WITH COASTAL WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ON THE IMMEDIATE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST...AND VALLEY WIND GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 45 MPH
SATURDAY EVENING BUT THESE NUMBERS MAY CHANGE AS THE MODELS HOPEFULLY
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY...SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHORT-WAVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO NEAR CASCADE PASS LEVELS SUNDAY. WEAK RIDGING MOVES
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCES
DWINDLING BRIEFLY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. BOWEN/TJ

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM...INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANA...WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING CONTINUED RAIN AND
WINDS ALONG THE COAST. SHORTWAVES WILL SUPPORT RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BEGINNING AROUND THURSDAY THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
TO THE EXTENT THAT CLIMO SEEMS THE BEST BET AT THIS POINT FOR THE
REMAINING 24 HRS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  BOWEN/27

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THIS MORNING...MAY BE A FEW SPOTS OF MVFR
CIGS. AFTER 18Z A WARM FRONT LIFTING N WILL SPREAD SOME RAIN N INTO
NW OREGON...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR...WITH
RAIN DECREASING AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO WA.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z...BEFORE A
MORE GENERAL RAIN DEVELOPS. ALTHOUGH UNLIKELY...THERE IS ABOUT A 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SEEING A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BEFORE 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS TODAY AS LIGHT S WINDS BACK
AROUND TO THE E LATE IN THE DAY. A LOW PRES SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN TO AROUND 995 MB AND APPROACH FROM THE SW TONIGHT...THEN MOVE
N THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS SAT BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER WESTERN
WA LATE SAT. THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW ARE STILL IN
QUESTION...BUT OVERALL EXPECTATION IS FOR SOUTHERLY GALES WITH THIS
LOW SAT. THE GALES WILL BRING STEEP SEAS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS EXPECTED
TO PEAK AROUND 17 TO 20 FT LATE SAT...BUT AGAIN...THIS WILL DEPEND
ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW.

ONCE THE LOW MOVES INLAND MON EVENING...WINDS WILL TURN TO BACK
TO THE W AND DECREASE ALONG WITH SEAS SUBSIDING. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE W EARLY NEXT WEEK...AROUND MON NIGHT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     7 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&



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000
FXUS66 KOTX 240950
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
250 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy and unsettled conditions will continue for the rest
of today but be on the decrease tonight and into tomorrow. This is
only temporary as rain is expected to return Friday night and
Saturday. A strong cold front passage Saturday Night and Sunday
will produce very windy conditions with gusts in excess of 40 mph.
The pattern will continue to be active into early next week. This
includes the potential for widespread rain into early next week as
moisture associated with former typhoons makes its way toward the
Pacific Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tonight...Looks like this period will see a little
break in the action in regards to our recent string of wet weather.
The anomalously moist atmospheric river has temporarily dipped
south of our forecast area. As of 2am...about the only weather
action was a blanket of high level moisture covering most of the
region. This cloud cover was associated with the 130-150kt upper
level jet. This dry respite will gradually come to an end this
morning in response to deep upstream trough centered near
35n/139w. Models in good agreement that as this trough moves
closer to the coast...the atmospheric river will buckle northward
as a warm front and push steadily across the Oregon/Washington
border. This transition will be accompanied by backing mid-level
flow (southerly winds)...leading toward a significant increase in
isentropic ascent and moisture advection. This will result in an
increasing chance of precipitation. By midday most of the
precipitation will be just south of our forecast area...however
some light rain could creep into the Blue Mountains and Camas
Prairie. By the latter half of the day...there is good model
agreement that the northern edge of the preciptiation will lie
approximately from Pullman to Moses Lake.

The front will continue to surge northward overnight...reaching
the Canadian Border well after midnight. Based on the good
moisture availability and moderate isentropic ascent...most areas
will receive some precipitation. Confidence is highest however
near the Cascades...as the 850-700 mb layer takes on a well
defined southeast-east wind regime. This will lead to good
orographic ascent which will only be bolstered by strong
divergence aloft. Categorical pops will be justified for locations
west of a Republic to Wenatchee line...and QPF totals will likely
range from a quarter to half inch. Snow levels will likely be
fairly high...ranging from 5.5-6k feet. This should not pose any
travel problems...however some snow can be expected to fall late
tonight over the highest parts of the North Cascades Highway.
While the precipitation really gets going late tonight over
locations near the Canadian Border...it will begin to taper off
near the Oregon border as the dry slot move in behind the warm
front. fx

Saturday through Monday Night: An upper level trough and surface
low will approach the southern Oregon coast Saturday. This weather
disturbance will bring an increase in cloud cover through the day.
As the surface low moves up the coast through the day and then
pushes inland through the evening our chance of precipitation will
increase. Have increased chance of precipitation for most
locations as many locations should receive at least 0.01 of
precip as this feature moves through. Even normally dry locations
such as the basin and east slope of the Cascades valleys could see
rain given the decent southeast upslope flow ahead of the cold
front.

...Breezy to windy conditions expected Saturday Night and Sunday...

Winds  associated with the cold front will be quite strong.
Saturday evening southerly winds 10 to 20 mph will be common
across most of the Columbia Basin and into the Palouse and
Spokane/CDA areas. Those winds will increase through the overnight
hours and into Sunday morning to 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 or
45 mph. Right now the strongest winds look to stretch from the
Blue Mountains up through the Palouse. Winds will slowly decrease
through Sunday afternoon and into the evening hours as the surface
low weakens and continues to move east across southern Canada.

Sunday the chance of precipitation will decrease through the
evening hours. The exception to this will be the Cascade crest and
ID Panhandle where showers will likely continue. A flat ridge
moves into the Inland Northwest Monday ahead of the next
potentially big soaker. Chance of precip will increase through the
overnight hours and into Tuesday morning, especially along the
Cascade Mountains and nearby valleys as the next weather system
moves onto the west coast.

Temperatures will start out at or above average on Saturday and
then drop to near average readings by Sunday and then to slightly
below average readings by Monday. /Nisbet

Tuesday through Thursday: The models are depicting a shortwave
trough pushing through the region followed by a weak ridge
building into the region for this period. For Tuesday, widespread
rain is expected in the morning. Precip chances will decrease from
West to East as the period progresses into Wednesday leaving only
the Idaho Panhandle with high potential to receive rain. Model
agreement on Thursday is not high but they are indicating a Low
in the Gulf of Alaska beginning to press into the Pacific
Northwest and bringing some precip to the Cascades. Light winds
associated with this pattern has potential for morning fog int he
northern valleys. Temperatures will still be above normal with
highs in the mid 50s to low 60s and lows in the upper 30s to mid
40s. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The stalled frontal band has moved southeast, ending
precipitation across southeast WA and the Idaho panhandle.
Abundant low level moisture available from recent rainfall will
promote formation of fog and low clouds overnight and into Friday
morning. Models show this front will lift back north from Oregon
and push into southern WA and the central panhandle of Idaho as a
wet warm front Friday afternoon/evening. /EK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  44  65  43  52  36 /   0  60  30  80  30  10
Coeur d`Alene  55  42  65  42  51  34 /  10  50  30  90  30  20
Pullman        55  45  68  42  49  38 /  30  50  20  80  30  20
Lewiston       59  44  72  47  56  41 /  40  50  10  60  20  20
Colville       54  42  62  45  52  35 /  10  70  30  80  50  20
Sandpoint      53  40  61  42  48  34 /  10  70  30  90  50  30
Kellogg        52  41  64  40  45  34 /  10  60  20  90  40  30
Moses Lake     57  45  60  45  59  37 /  10  80  20  30  10  10
Wenatchee      57  44  57  43  55  38 /  10  80  60  40  10  10
Omak           56  42  55  43  54  35 /  10  90  50  50  30  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&





000
FXUS66 KOTX 240543
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1043 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy and unsettled conditions will continue for the rest
of today but be on the decrease tonight and into tomorrow. This is
only temporary as rain is expected to return Friday night and
Saturday. A strong cold front passage Saturday Night and Sunday
will produce very windy conditions with gusts in excess of 40 mph.
The pattern will continue to be active into early next week. This
includes the potential for widespread rain into early next week as
moisture associated with former typhoons makes its way toward the
Pacific Northwest.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
The broad frontal band of precipitation that was draped across the
southeast zones this evening has finally moved off to the south
and east. A few showers continue to pop up over the northern
panhandle of Idaho in the unstable post frontal air mass. Return
of westerly flow will keep a few showers over the Cascade crest
and the panhandle overnight but these will be hit or miss with
little additional rainfall accumulations. Ample low level moisture
will allow fog and low stratus to develop across the northeast
valleys and also in some of the Cascade gap valleys overnight.
This will keep min temperatures from bottoming out tonight. Those
areas that see some clearing could get rather chilly tonight as
winds have dropped off significantly. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The stalled frontal band has moved southeast, ending
precipitation across southeast WA and the Idaho panhandle.
Abundant low level moisture available from recent rainfall will
promote formation of fog and low clouds overnight and into Friday
morning. Models show this front will lift back north from Oregon
and push into southern WA and the central panhandle of Idaho as a
wet warm front Friday afternoon/evening. /EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        40  57  43  65  44  53 /  20  10  30  30  80  30
Coeur d`Alene  42  57  40  64  42  53 /  20  10  20  30  90  30
Pullman        43  59  45  69  44  52 /  20  10  40  20  80  30
Lewiston       48  64  46  72  48  58 /  20  20  30  10  60  20
Colville       37  59  41  63  44  53 /  20  10  40  30  80  50
Sandpoint      40  56  38  60  41  49 /  40  10  30  30  90  50
Kellogg        39  53  41  63  42  46 /  60  20  30  20  90  40
Moses Lake     41  59  44  62  46  60 /  10  10  60  20  30  10
Wenatchee      42  57  47  58  46  57 /  10  10  70  60  40  10
Omak           36  58  42  56  44  56 /  10  10  60  50  50  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 240503
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1000 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN BACK TO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER WET AND BREEZY AT TIMES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM....THAT LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS MOVING ONTO
THE SOUTH WA COAST AT 10PM IS HOLDING TOGETHER...SO IT WILL LIKELY
REACH THE CENTRAL AND THEN THE NORTH WA COAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...FORECASTS UPDATED FOR THAT. BUT FOR THE INTERIOR THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY AS
A LITTLE UPPER RIDGING AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL HAVE A WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM A DEEP LOW CENTER OFF
NRN CALIF LATE FRIDAY...ACROSS NW OREGON AND ALONG THE WA/ORE
BORDER. THE FRONT MOVES NORTH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE
INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND AND SW B.C. BY MIDDAY SAT. THE NAM SHOWS THAT
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA GETS STRETCHED OUT ALONG THE WA AND ORE
COASTAL WATERS BY THAT TIME AS PRECIP FILLS IN OVER MOST OF WRN WA.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE INTERIOR OF WRN WA SATURDAY EVENING
AND GIVE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS IN STRONG ONSHORE FLOW. SUNDAY LOOKS
LIKE A COOL DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A PSCZ...SHOWERS
LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND A SNOW LEVEL NEAR PASS LEVEL.

.LONG TERM...AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY...ANOTHER
LOW WILL MOVE INLAND OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND ON TUESDAY BRINGING WET
AND POSSIBLY BREEZY WEATHER TO THE AREA. WET AND LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS YET
MORE FEATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HYDROLOGICALLY
SIGNIFICANT. THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY FELL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT WEAKENING ON FRIDAY.
AIR MASS REMAINING UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT THEN STABILIZING FRIDAY
MORNING. WARM FRONT MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

CEILINGS AOA 10000 FEET. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE OVER THE NEXT
THREE HOURS AS ONE LAST BAND OF SHOWERS APPROACHING THE COAST AT 05Z
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CEILINGS LOWERING TO NEAR 4000 FEET IN THE
SHOWERS. BAND WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA BY 09Z. BETWEEN 10Z-16Z
ISOLATED VISIBILITIES 1-3SM WITH CEILINGS BELOW 500 FEET ALONG THE
I-5 CORRIDOR FROM ABOUT KOLM SOUTHWARD.

KSEA...BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH AROUND 06Z TO 09Z WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING TO NEAR 5000 FEET. OUTSIDE OF THAT WINDOW CEILINGS
AOA 10000 FEET. SOUTHERLY WINDS 4 TO 8 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHEAST
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THEN NORTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...THE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT
DUE TO FALLING PRES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ON FRIDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO A 992
MB LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SW. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO
996 MB AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WASHINGTON COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND THE COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW SATURDAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS...IF THE NE MOVING LOW MOVES INTO FAR
SW BRITISH COLUMBIA. IF IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN OREGON OR TRACKS
ACROSS FAR SW WASHINGTON...THE THREAT OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE
CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA. THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS MODEL
CONSENSUS. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN
     MASON COUNTY.

PZ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SATURDAY
     MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KSEW 240435
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN BACK TO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER WET AND BREEZY AT TIMES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL
BE A DRY DAY AS A LITTLE UPPER RIDGING AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL HAVE A WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM A
DEEP LOW CENTER OFF NRN CALIF LATE FRIDAY...ACROSS NW OREGON AND
ALONG THE WA/ORE BORDER. THE FRONT MOVES NORTH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SHOULD BE INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND AND SW B.C. BY MIDDAY SAT.
THE NAM SHOWS THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA GETS STRETCHED OUT ALONG
THE WA AND ORE COASTAL WATERS BY THAT TIME AS PRECIP FILLS IN OVER
MOST OF WRN WA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE INTERIOR OF WRN WA
SATURDAY EVENING AND GIVE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS IN STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A COOL DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A PSCZ...SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND A SNOW LEVEL
NEAR PASS LEVEL.

.LONG TERM...AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY...ANOTHER
LOW WILL MOVE INLAND OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND ON TUESDAY BRINGING WET
AND POSSIBLY BREEZY WEATHER TO THE AREA. WET AND LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS YET
MORE FEATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HYDROLOGICALLY
SIGNIFICANT. THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY FELL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT WEAKENING ON FRIDAY.
AIR MASS REMAINING UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT THEN STABILIZING FRIDAY
MORNING. WARM FRONT MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

CEILINGS AOA 10000 FEET. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE OVER THE NEXT
THREE HOURS AS ONE LAST BAND OF SHOWERS APPROACHING THE COAST AT 05Z
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CEILINGS LOWERING TO NEAR 4000 FEET IN THE
SHOWERS. BAND WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA BY 09Z. BETWEEN 10Z-16Z
ISOLATED VISIBILITIES 1-3SM WITH CEILINGS BELOW 500 FEET ALONG THE
I-5 CORRIDOR FROM ABOUT KOLM SOUTHWARD.

KSEA...BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH AROUND 06Z TO 09Z WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING TO NEAR 5000 FEET. OUTSIDE OF THAT WINDOW CEILINGS
AOA 10000 FEET. SOUTHERLY WINDS 4 TO 8 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHEAST
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THEN NORTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...THE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT
DUE TO FALLING PRES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ON FRIDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO A 992
MB LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SW. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO
996 MB AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WASHINGTON COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND THE COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW SATURDAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS...IF THE NE MOVING LOW MOVES INTO FAR
SW BRITISH COLUMBIA. IF IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN OREGON OR TRACKS
ACROSS FAR SW WASHINGTON...THE THREAT OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE
CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA. THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS MODEL
CONSENSUS. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN
     MASON COUNTY.

PZ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SATURDAY
     MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KPQR 240339
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
839 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE AIR MASS
SLOWLY STABILIZES. A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN INTO SW OREGON
FRIDAY MORNING AND ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS
THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&
.UPDATE...A NWS STORM SURVEY TEAM DETERMINED THAT THE TORNADO THAT
TOUCHED DOWN IN LONGVIEW WA THIS AFTERNOON WAS AN EF-1. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SHOWERS THAT SHOWERS HAVE EASED SINCE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE
STILL FAIRLY PERSISTENT OVER SW WASHINGTON. THERE HAS BEEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE THAT ARE JUST ENTERING
THE NORTHERN OREGON COASTAL WATERS AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WATERS AND SW WA COAST FOR THIS EVENING. THE
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT IN MOST AREAS...AND REMAIN ON THE DRY
SIDE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE SW WA COAST
AND THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES. RAIN WILL RETURN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
LATE FRIDAY MORNING TO THE AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE
AREA.

FROM PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO SW
OREGON FRI MORNING AND THEN LIFTS NORTH FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL ALSO INDUCE OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMBIA
GORGE AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE. THE NORTH ZONES COULD BE DRY
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF FRI AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM
FRONT. THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT FRI INTO SAT MORNING.

MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR 12Z SAT CREATE A HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW STRENGTH...TRACK AND TIMING. THE GFS IS THE
MOST CONSOLIDATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW 12Z SAT...WHILE THE ECMWF AND
NAM HAVE A MORE ELONGATED LOW WITH MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS. THE LATEST
GFS IS NOW THE SLOWEST WITH THE LOW...WITH A 990 MB CENTER NEAR
NEWPORT 18Z SAT. THE ECWMF AND NAM HAVE THE MAIN LOW CENTER NEAR THE
FAR N OREGON OR S WA COAST. THE WRF-GFS VALID 18Z SAT HAS A SMALL
CORE OF 60-70 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG THE S PART OF THE CENTRAL
COAST...BUT BY 21Z WIND GUST SPEEDS FALL OFF TO 40-50 KT. IT ALSO
SHOWS A SMALL CORE OF 40-50 KT GUSTS IN THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY
AT 21Z.

DESPITE ALL OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THERE IS A HIGHER
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE REGARDING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY SAT AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT GUSTS TO AT
LEAST 40 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED AS A HEADS UP TO
THIS POSSIBILITY. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AND
MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OVER THE AREA
TODAY...SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHORT-WAVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO NEAR CASCADE PASS LEVELS SUNDAY. TJ/WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STILL AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER A BRIEF DRYING
PERIOD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY...THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANA...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS
NEXT THURSDAY. ALL IN ALL...EXPECT WET AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS AS THESE FRONTS MOVE THROUGH. /27
&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THIS EVENING. THE LOWER AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST AND
WITH ENOUGH CLOUD BREAKS THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE
THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER TO PREVENT
WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS OR FOG FROM DEVELOPING. NEXT FRONT MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRI AFTERNOON SPREADING RAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH 12Z WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS FROM 12Z-17Z FRI.

&&

.MARINE...BRIEF BREAK IN WINDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS ADVERTISING OFFSHORE FLOW
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING THE A QUICK SWITCH TO SOUTHERLIES OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. AT SOME POINT ON SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE GALE
FORCE WINDS AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SUGGEST
LANDFALL WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE NORTH OREGON COAST AND
VANCOUVER ISLAND. IT SEEMS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE IS MOST LIKELY.
A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS. REGARDLESS OF THE TRACKS PROVIDED BY VARIOUS
MODELS...GALE FORCE WINDS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE
WATERS LATE SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LOW END STORM FORCE GUSTS
OF 50 KT IF THE STRONGER AND MORE SOUTHERN TRACK PANS OUT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THIS POINT BUT ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE THE GALE WATCH FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE REFINED AS
MODELS CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. SEAS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BECOME
STEEP AND WIND DOMINATED...POSSIBLY REACHING UPWARDS OF 20 FT LATE
SATURDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THE DETAILS AT
THIS POINT IN TIME REMAIN UNCERTAIN. MODELS DO SUGGEST SEAS WILL
RELAX IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. /NEUMAN/MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     3 AM TO 7 AM PDT FRIDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     3 PM TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 240339
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
839 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE AIR MASS
SLOWLY STABILIZES. A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN INTO SW OREGON
FRIDAY MORNING AND ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS
THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&
.UPDATE...A NWS STORM SURVEY TEAM DETERMINED THAT THE TORNADO THAT
TOUCHED DOWN IN LONGVIEW WA THIS AFTERNOON WAS AN EF-1. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SHOWERS THAT SHOWERS HAVE EASED SINCE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE
STILL FAIRLY PERSISTENT OVER SW WASHINGTON. THERE HAS BEEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE THAT ARE JUST ENTERING
THE NORTHERN OREGON COASTAL WATERS AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WATERS AND SW WA COAST FOR THIS EVENING. THE
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT IN MOST AREAS...AND REMAIN ON THE DRY
SIDE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE SW WA COAST
AND THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES. RAIN WILL RETURN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
LATE FRIDAY MORNING TO THE AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE
AREA.

FROM PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO SW
OREGON FRI MORNING AND THEN LIFTS NORTH FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL ALSO INDUCE OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMBIA
GORGE AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE. THE NORTH ZONES COULD BE DRY
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF FRI AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM
FRONT. THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT FRI INTO SAT MORNING.

MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR 12Z SAT CREATE A HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW STRENGTH...TRACK AND TIMING. THE GFS IS THE
MOST CONSOLIDATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW 12Z SAT...WHILE THE ECMWF AND
NAM HAVE A MORE ELONGATED LOW WITH MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS. THE LATEST
GFS IS NOW THE SLOWEST WITH THE LOW...WITH A 990 MB CENTER NEAR
NEWPORT 18Z SAT. THE ECWMF AND NAM HAVE THE MAIN LOW CENTER NEAR THE
FAR N OREGON OR S WA COAST. THE WRF-GFS VALID 18Z SAT HAS A SMALL
CORE OF 60-70 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG THE S PART OF THE CENTRAL
COAST...BUT BY 21Z WIND GUST SPEEDS FALL OFF TO 40-50 KT. IT ALSO
SHOWS A SMALL CORE OF 40-50 KT GUSTS IN THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY
AT 21Z.

DESPITE ALL OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THERE IS A HIGHER
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE REGARDING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY SAT AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT GUSTS TO AT
LEAST 40 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED AS A HEADS UP TO
THIS POSSIBILITY. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AND
MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OVER THE AREA
TODAY...SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHORT-WAVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO NEAR CASCADE PASS LEVELS SUNDAY. TJ/WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STILL AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER A BRIEF DRYING
PERIOD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY...THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANA...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS
NEXT THURSDAY. ALL IN ALL...EXPECT WET AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS AS THESE FRONTS MOVE THROUGH. /27
&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THIS EVENING. THE LOWER AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST AND
WITH ENOUGH CLOUD BREAKS THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE
THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER TO PREVENT
WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS OR FOG FROM DEVELOPING. NEXT FRONT MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRI AFTERNOON SPREADING RAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH 12Z WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS FROM 12Z-17Z FRI.

&&

.MARINE...BRIEF BREAK IN WINDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS ADVERTISING OFFSHORE FLOW
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING THE A QUICK SWITCH TO SOUTHERLIES OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. AT SOME POINT ON SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE GALE
FORCE WINDS AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SUGGEST
LANDFALL WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE NORTH OREGON COAST AND
VANCOUVER ISLAND. IT SEEMS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE IS MOST LIKELY.
A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS. REGARDLESS OF THE TRACKS PROVIDED BY VARIOUS
MODELS...GALE FORCE WINDS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE
WATERS LATE SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LOW END STORM FORCE GUSTS
OF 50 KT IF THE STRONGER AND MORE SOUTHERN TRACK PANS OUT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THIS POINT BUT ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE THE GALE WATCH FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE REFINED AS
MODELS CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. SEAS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BECOME
STEEP AND WIND DOMINATED...POSSIBLY REACHING UPWARDS OF 20 FT LATE
SATURDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THE DETAILS AT
THIS POINT IN TIME REMAIN UNCERTAIN. MODELS DO SUGGEST SEAS WILL
RELAX IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. /NEUMAN/MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     3 AM TO 7 AM PDT FRIDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     3 PM TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 232344
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
444 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy and unsettled conditions will continue for the rest
of today but be on the decrease tonight and into tomorrow. This is
only temporary as rain is expected to return Friday night and
Saturday. A strong cold front passage Saturday Night and Sunday
will produce very windy conditions with gusts in excess of 40 mph.
The pattern will continue to be active into early next week. This
includes the potential for widespread rain into early next week as
moisture associated with former typhoons makes its way toward the
Pacific Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Friday...Expectation for decreasing clouds and pops
overnight as the northern end of the large baroclinic band
extending southwest out into the East Pacific continues to pass
through the forecast area as a wet cold front. The cool
conditionally unstable airmass on the north side of this front
does have numerous small mesoscale shortwaves rotating in it close
to the baroclinic band, and with enough lingering moisture from
recent rainfall a small mention of thunderstorms in proximity to
the exiting frontal zone remain into the early evening hours. The
band continues to work its way to the south and stalls somewhere
in Oregon and Central Idaho which is far enough to the south to
leave a relatively dry forecast for Friday with some mention of
fog/stratus for the early morning hours. The front will come back
up again as a warm front of sorts later on Friday. Due to the
dynamic nature of the forecast and expectation cloud cover will
work to moderate temperatures forecast temperatures remain on the
warm side of what would be considered normal for this time of
year. /Pelatti

Friday night through Sunday night...Quite the active weather pattern
will be coming up through this period of the forecast. And for an
active pattern the models are in pretty good agreement. A warm
front will move back north through the forecast area ahead of an
upstream upper level low. This will bring our first shot of of
precipitation to the area. A cold front will follow Saturday
night with the upper trough lingering over the Inland Northwest
through Sunday night. This will allow the precipitation to become
showery. Also expect decreasing snow levels and windy conditions
Saturday night and Sunday.

*Precipitation: Yes, and quite a bit. The warm front will tap into the
 next atmospheric river...with PWATs rising to between .70 to .80
 which is right around 200 percent of normal. Wet indeed.
 Isentropic up-glide is fairly vigorous and with southeast-south
 low to mid level flow the Cascades east to the western basin
 should receive a pretty good shot of measurable precipitation.
 The warm front will get pushed east early Saturday as the flow
 becomes south-southwesterly. This will shift the focus across the
 northern mountains and finally the Idaho Panhandle Saturday
 afternoon. The cold front will follow Saturday evening. Ample
 showers will continue near the Cascade crest...the northern
 mountains and the Idaho Panhandle through Sunday night, but the
 lower east slopes...Columbia basin and the Palouse will see a
 decrease in the showers by Sunday morning. QPF totals through
 Sunday evening will be between one half and one inch in the
 Cascades. From one quarter to one half in the northern mountains
 and the Idaho Panhandle, and from several hundredths to around
 .20 in the Basin, Palouse and the Spokane/Coeur D`Alene areas.
 Snow levels will start out from 5k feet across the northwest to
 over 7k feet across the southeast and rise 1500-2000 feet through
 the night. So precipitation as mainly rain with some high level
 snow. The snow levels will drop behind the front to below 5k
 feet, but by this time the precipitation should be on the
 decrease. Still several inches of snow will be possible for the
 higher terrain over the Cascades and a couple of inches of snow
 for the Panhandle mountains Saturday night and Sunday. Small
 stream and rivers will have to be monitored for rises...but right
 now the thinking is that there should be no flooding.

*Winds: East to southeast winds Friday and Saturday will switch to the
 southwest ahead of the cold front late Saturday afternoon, then
 increase Saturday night and remain windy/gusty Sunday. Model
 guidance is indicating about 3-6 hour time frame of peak winds
 between 06-12z Sunday. Sustained winds of 25 mph to 30 mph with
 gusts 25 to 40 mph will be common for the ridges...The deep
 basin...The west Plains...but the models focus the strongest
 winds across the Palouse and the lower slopes of the blues where
 sustained winds of 30 to 35 mph or higher with gusts 40 to 50 mph
 will be possible. Winds will decrease by morning but expect a
 windy day on Sunday. This will have to be monitored closely over
 the next 48-72 hours to pin point where the potential problem
 areas may be. No highlights are expected with this forecast
 package.

*Temps: Temperatures will increase on Saturday with the strong
 warm advection associated with the warm front with highs 8-12
 degrees above normal. The temps will then cool back down into the
 50s on Sunday behind the cold front. /Tobin

Monday through Thursday: An active weather pattern continues,
with temperatures hovering around average. The remnants of
Tropical Storm Ana come into the Pacific Northwest early in the
week. This is followed by the approach and possible passage of
additional systems through the week. However by middle to late
week model consistency degrades. Some runs are more eager to bring
systems inland and keep the region wet; other runs hold them
offshore and keep the region drier.

First on Monday a weak shortwave ridge nudges in from the west-
southwest, with a mid-level impulse/jet streak riding over the top
of it during the day. This keeps shower chances alive across
southeast WA to the central Panhandle and near the immediate
Cascade crest. Cooler air behind Sunday`s trough pushes snow level
down toward 4-4.5kft; this means possible snow at pass level. So
we will monitor this, (especially across the central Panhandle
including the I-90 corridor toward Lookout Pass) for some light
accumulations. Quiet weather is expected over the rest of the
region.

From Monday night through Tuesday night that next system comes
in. Ostensibly it comes with another modest moisture fetch which
includes the remains Tropical Storm Ana that are picked up by a
system currently to its northwest. Models are coming into better
agreement. Confidence is not as high as it could be given recent
model inconsistencies, but right now it looks like Tuesday could
be rather wet. Expect thickening clouds Monday night with the main
rain chances increasing over the Cascades. The precipitation
chances rise throughout the region Tuesday as the system moves
inland, with some moderate to locally rainfall possible in the
Cascades and northeast WA and north ID. Snow levels linger around
4-5kft in the morning, then rise to around 5-7kft in the afternoon
over a large part of the region. The main exception could be
across the Canadian border counties where they may linger around
that 4-5kft mark. So if precipitation starts early enough there
could be some snow accumulation around the passes, with the best
threat of it lingering through the day around Sherman Pass where
the warmer air may not reach. With this said, there is still a lot
of room for model changes but it is something to monitor.

By Tuesday night the precipitation focus gradually backs against
the Cascades and retreats to the eastern mountains as the front
passes and a shortwave ridge moves in. From Wednesday to Thursday
models now depict a shortwave ridge dominating the pattern.
However previous runs brought a trough inland. I have trended PoPs
downward away from the Cascades, but still kept some low chances
alive given uncertainty. But if trends hold the forecast may be
dried out completely away from the Cascades. I also increased the
potential for fog across the northern valleys and portions of the
Spokane/C`dA area for the night and early morning hours. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A slow-moving frontal zone currently draped across
extreme SE WA and central panhandle of ID will keep rain and some
low stratus clouds in the KLWS-KPUW area this evening.
Additionally the unstable air behind the front on the north side
of it may allow isolated thunderstorms to develop late this
afternoon into early evening. Gusty winds associated with the
front will diminish after sunset. Abundant low level moisture
available from recent rainfall will promote formation of fog and
low clouds overnight and into Friday morning as the front sags to
the south. Models show this same front will lift back north from
Oregon and push through the aviation area as a wet warm front
Friday evening/night. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        40  57  43  65  44  53 /  60  10  30  20  50  30
Coeur d`Alene  39  57  40  64  42  53 /  60  10  20  20  60  30
Pullman        42  59  45  69  44  52 /  60  10  40  10  50  30
Lewiston       46  64  46  72  48  58 /  60  20  30  10  40  20
Colville       36  59  41  63  44  53 /  50  10  40  30  70  50
Sandpoint      37  56  38  60  41  49 /  80  10  30  20  80  50
Kellogg        39  53  41  63  42  46 /  80  20  30  10  70  40
Moses Lake     40  59  44  62  46  60 /  10  10  60  20  30  10
Wenatchee      42  57  47  58  46  57 /  10  10  70  50  40  10
Omak           36  58  42  56  44  56 /  10  10  60  50  50  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 232259 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
359 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

CORRECTED MINOR TYPO IN THE AVIATION SEGMENT.

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH THAT IS GIVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN BACK TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS
LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS MAINLY WET AND BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG WSW 140-150 KT JET AT 300 MB AND AN
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING IN ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW
WASHINGTON TODAY. THESE FEATURES HAVE GIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING WEAK ROTATION ON OUR RADARS. ONE
LIKELY SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED BY RADAR EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON IN
NORTHERN GRAYS HARBOR COUNTY. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT AND COME TO AN END EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM OF A DEVELOPING LOW NOW SEEN NEAR
38N 140W.

THE LOW NOW STARTING TO SHOW ITSELF WELL OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST IS DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO A COLD TROUGH THAT DROPPED DOWN
OUT OF THE BERING SEA AS IT PHASED WITH WARMTH AND MOISTURE
STREAMING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A SUBTROPICAL FEATURE OUT OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL PACIFIC. 18Z AND 12Z MODELS ARE A LITTLE WEAKER THAN
SOLUTIONS FROM LAST NIGHT...BUT THEY REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING
THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT AT AROUND 990 MB OFF THE OREGON COAST THEN
MOVING INLAND OVER SW WASHINGTON THEN INTO THE SEATTLE AREA SATURDAY
EVENING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INLAND.

AHEAD OF THE LOW...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD ON FRIDAY.
THEN FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OFFSHORE...A FRONTAL
INVERSION ALOFT LOWERS...AND FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AROUND 700
MB...WINDY CONDITIONS FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. THIS
IS BEST SHOWN BY THE NAM12.

WIND SPEEDS WITH AND BEHIND THE LOW LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REALLY DEPEND ON HOW DEEP THE LOW GETS...HOW
QUICKLY IT FILLS AS IT MOVES INLAND...AND ITS WIND FIELD STRUCTURE
AS IT MOVES INLAND. THE NAM12 AND ECMWF SHOW A SAGGY TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LOW THAT WOULD INHIBIT A PUNCH OF STRONG PRESSURE RISES
BEHIND THE LOW. AT THIS POINT...FORECASTS INDICATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH BEHIND THE LOW. A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED JUST AS A HEADS UP. IF LATER
SOLUTIONS BECOME DEEPER WITH THE LOW AGAIN...A HIGH WIND WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

POST FRONTAL SHOWERS IN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AND
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY...ANOTHER
LOW WILL MOVE INLAND OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND ON TUESDAY BRINGING WET
AND POSSIBLY BREEZY WEATHER TO THE AREA. WET AND LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS YET
MORE FEATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HYDROLOGICALLY
SIGNIFICANT.

THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...IT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS
EVENING. REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT BULLETIN FOR THE MOST
UP TO DATE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
SLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE AIR MASS WAS UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE AREA. EXPECT THE
AIR MASS TO STABILIZE AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE THREAT OF TSTMS
ENDING.

MEANWHILE...THERE WILL BE AREAS OF CIGS IN THE 2-3K FT RANGE WITH
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS THRU THIS EVENING. LOCALIZED VSBYS OF 2-5SM /DUE
TO FOG/ AND CIGS AOB 1K FT ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG
THE I-5 CORRIDOR FROM ABOUT KOLM SWD.

KSEA...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF TSTMS OVER THE TERMINAL TIL ABOUT
0200 UTC. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE TSTMS WILL BE BRIEF GUSTS TO
NEAR 25 KNOTS...HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE TERMINAL...ALTHOUGH A HEAVY SHOWER
THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE THE VSBY TO NEAR 2SM AND CIGS TO
NEAR 3K FT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT DUE TO
FALLING PRES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON
FRI AND WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO A 990 MB LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE SW. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO 993 MB AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE WASHINGTON COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND THE COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT.

THERE CONTINUED TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING...
TRACK...AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS...IF
THE NE MOVING LOW MOVES INTO FAR SW BRITISH COLUMBIA. IF IT MOVES
INTO NORTHERN OREGON OR TRACKS ACROSS FAR SW WASHINGTON...THE THREAT
OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA. THE FORECAST
REFLECTS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN
     MASON COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
     COASTAL WATERS...CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...NORTHERN
     INLAND WATERS...AND PUGET SOUND TIL 6 PM PDT TODAY.

     GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SATURDAY
     MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 232256
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
355 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH THAT IS GIVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN BACK TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS
LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS MAINLY WET AND BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG WSW 140-150 KT JET AT 300 MB AND AN
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING IN ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW
WASHINGTON TODAY. THESE FEATURES HAVE GIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING WEAK ROTATION ON OUR RADARS. ONE
LIKELY SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED BY RADAR EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON IN
NORTHERN GRAYS HARBOR COUNTY. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT AND COME TO AN END EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM OF A DEVELOPING LOW NOW SEEN NEAR
38N 140W.

THE LOW NOW STARTING TO SHOW ITSELF WELL OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST IS DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO A COLD TROUGH THAT DROPPED DOWN
OUT OF THE BERING SEA AS IT PHASED WITH WARMTH AND MOISTURE
STREAMING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A SUBTROPICAL FEATURE OUT OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL PACIFIC. 18Z AND 12Z MODELS ARE A LITTLE WEAKER THAN
SOLUTIONS FROM LAST NIGHT...BUT THEY REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING
THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT AT AROUND 990 MB OFF THE OREGON COAST THEN
MOVING INLAND OVER SW WASHINGTON THEN INTO THE SEATTLE AREA SATURDAY
EVENING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INLAND.

AHEAD OF THE LOW...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD ON FRIDAY.
THEN FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OFFSHORE...A FRONTAL
INVERSION ALOFT LOWERS...AND FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AROUND 700
MB...WINDY CONDITIONS FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. THIS
IS BEST SHOWN BY THE NAM12.

WIND SPEEDS WITH AND BEHIND THE LOW LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REALLY DEPEND ON HOW DEEP THE LOW GETS...HOW
QUICKLY IT FILLS AS IT MOVES INLAND...AND ITS WIND FIELD STRUCTURE
AS IT MOVES INLAND. THE NAM12 AND ECMWF SHOW A SAGGY TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LOW THAT WOULD INHIBIT A PUNCH OF STRONG PRESSURE RISES
BEHIND THE LOW. AT THIS POINT...FORECASTS INDICATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH BEHIND THE LOW. A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED JUST AS A HEADS UP. IF LATER
SOLUTIONS BECOME DEEPER WITH THE LOW AGAIN...A HIGH WIND WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

POST FRONTAL SHOWERS IN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AND
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY...ANOTHER
LOW WILL MOVE INLAND OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND ON TUESDAY BRINGING WET
AND POSSIBLY BREEZY WEATHER TO THE AREA. WET AND LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS YET
MORE FEATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HYDROLOGICALLY
SIGNIFICANT.

THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...IT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS
EVENING. REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT BULLETIN FOR THE MOST
UP TO DATE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
SLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE AIR MASS WAS UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE AREA. EXPECT THE AIR
MASS TO STABILIZE AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE THREAT OF TSTMS ENDING.

MEANWHILE...THERE WILL BE AREAS OF CIGS IN THE 2-3K FT RANGE WITH
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS THRU THIS EVENING. LOCALIZED VSBYS OF 2-5SM /DUE
TO FOG/ AND CIGS AOB 1K FT ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG
THE I-5 CORRIDOR FROM ABOUT KOLM SWD.

KSEA...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF TSTMS OVER THE TERMINAL TIL ABOUT
0200 UTC. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE TSTMS WILL BE BRIEF GUSTS TO
NEAR 25 KNOTS...HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE TERMINAL...ALTHOUGH A HEAVY SHOWER
THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE THE VSBY TO NEAR 2SM AND CIGS TO
NEAR 3K FT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT DUE TO
FALLING PRES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON
FRI AND WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO A 990 MB LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE SW. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO 993 MB AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE WASHINGTON COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND THE COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT.

THERE CONTINUED TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING...
TRACK...AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS...IF
THE NE MOVING LOW MOVES INTO FAR SW BRITISH COLUMBIA. IF IT MOVES
INTO NORTHERN OREGON OR TRACKS ACROSS FAR SW WASHINGTON...THE THREAT
OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA. THE FORECAST
REFLECTS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON
      COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
      COASTAL WATERS...CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...
      NORTHERN      INLAND WATERS...AND PUGET SOUND TIL 6 PM PDT
      TODAY.

     GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SATURDAY
     MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KPQR 232153
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
251 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE AIR MASS
SLOWLY BECOMES LESS UNSTABLE. A SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL
RAPIDLY DEEPEN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE NORTH
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO SW OREGON FRIDAY MORNING
AND THEN DRIFTS NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ELONGATED
SURFACE LOW FORMS JUST OFF THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN SWINGS
TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY...EARLY AFTERNOON HAS
BECOME MORE ACTIVE. KRTX DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR NEWBERG TO
CAMAS...WA SHORTLY BEFORE 20Z. RECEIVED A CALL FROM AN EMERGENCY
MANAGER IN SW WA JUST AFTER 20Z REGARDING A POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR
KELSO AND LONGVIEW THAT PRODUCED SOME ROOF DAMAGE. KRTX DOPPLER RADAR
VELOCITY AND STORM-RELATIVE MOTION DISPLAYS INDICATED SOME DEGREE OF
ROTATION WITHIN THIS CELL. THIS ACTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
AREA OF COLD AIR CUMULUS OFF THE WA AND N OREGON COAST. SW-W 850 MB
FLOW OF 15-25 KT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GOOD OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN ELEVATED TERRAIN SUCH AS THE OREGON
COAST RANGE...SW WA WILLAPA HILLS...AND THE CASCADE ZONES.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT...BUT DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES LESS UNSTABLE. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE A
NEW LOW THAT DEVELOPS AROUND 40N 130W 00Z SAT. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO SW OREGON FRI MORNING AND THEN LIFTS NORTH FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO INDUCE OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE. THE NORTH
ZONES COULD BE DRY FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF FRI AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT FRI
INTO SAT MORNING. MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR 12Z SAT CREATE A
HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW STRENGTH...TRACK AND
TIMING. THE GFS IS THE MOST CONSOLIDATED WITH THE SURFAFE LOW 12Z
SAT...WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAM HAVE A MORE ELONGATED LOW WITH MULTIPLE
LOW CENTERS. THE LATEST GFS IS NOW THE SLOWEST WITH THE LOW...WITH A
990 MB CENTER NEAR NEWPORT 18Z SAT. THE ECWMF AND NAM HAVE THE MAIN
LOW CENTER NEAR THE FAR N OREGON OR S WA COAST. THE WRF-GFS VALID 18Z
SAT HAS A SMALL CORE OF 60-70 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG THE S PART OF THE
CENTRAL COAST...BUT BY 21Z WIND GUST SPEEDS FALL OFF TO 40-50 KT. IT
ALSO SHOWS A SMALL CORE OF 40-50 KT GUSTS IN THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AT 21Z. DESPITE ALL OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THERE IS A HIGHER
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE REGARDING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPIONG
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY SAT AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT GUSTS TO AT
LEAST 40 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED AS A HEADS UP TO
THIS POSSIBILITY. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AND
MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OVER THE AREA
TODAY...SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHORT-WAVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO NEAR CASCADE PASS LEVELS SUNDAY. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STILL AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER A BRIEF DRYING
PERIOD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY...THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANA...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS
NEXT THURSDAY. ALL IN ALL...EXPECT WET AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS AS THESE FRONTS MOVE THROUGH. /27
&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
EVENING MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.
DEPENDING ON BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...IFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD CERTAINLY DEVELOP TOWARDS 12Z FRIDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW
AT THIS POINT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE VFR TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...BUT DEPENDING ON BREAKS IN THE MID TO UPPER CLOUDS
TONIGHT...IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS COULD CERTAINLY DEVELOP TOWARDS
12Z FRIDAY. /NEUMAN /MH

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE NOW BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
OVER THE WATERS HOWEVER SEAS ARE STILL AROUND 10 TO 12 FEET SO
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING LESS WIND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ALLOW SEAS TO DROP
BELOW 10 FT FOR FRIDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WELL OFF
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND TRACK EITHER NORTHWARD OR
NORTHEASTWARD JUST BEYOND OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE SATURDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WHERE IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL SO CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. MODELS SUGGEST LANDFALL WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE NORTH OREGON COAST AND VANCOUVER ISLAND. IT SEEMS
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE IS MOST LIKELY. A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. REGARDLESS OF THE
TRACKS PROVIDED BY VARIOUS MODELS...GALE FORCE WINDS APPEAR
INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE
FOR LOW END STORM FORCE GUSTS OF 50 KT IF THE STRONGER AND MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK PANS OUT. SEAS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BECOME STEEP
AND WIND DOMINATED...POSSIBLY REACHING UPWARDS OF 20 FT LATE
SATURDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT THE DETAILS AT THIS
POINT IN TIME REMAIN UNCERTAIN. MODELS DO SUGGEST SEAS WILL RELAX
IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 AM
     TO 7 AM PDT FRIDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 232153
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
251 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE AIR MASS
SLOWLY BECOMES LESS UNSTABLE. A SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL
RAPIDLY DEEPEN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE NORTH
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO SW OREGON FRIDAY MORNING
AND THEN DRIFTS NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ELONGATED
SURFACE LOW FORMS JUST OFF THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN SWINGS
TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY...EARLY AFTERNOON HAS
BECOME MORE ACTIVE. KRTX DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR NEWBERG TO
CAMAS...WA SHORTLY BEFORE 20Z. RECEIVED A CALL FROM AN EMERGENCY
MANAGER IN SW WA JUST AFTER 20Z REGARDING A POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR
KELSO AND LONGVIEW THAT PRODUCED SOME ROOF DAMAGE. KRTX DOPPLER RADAR
VELOCITY AND STORM-RELATIVE MOTION DISPLAYS INDICATED SOME DEGREE OF
ROTATION WITHIN THIS CELL. THIS ACTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
AREA OF COLD AIR CUMULUS OFF THE WA AND N OREGON COAST. SW-W 850 MB
FLOW OF 15-25 KT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GOOD OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN ELEVATED TERRAIN SUCH AS THE OREGON
COAST RANGE...SW WA WILLAPA HILLS...AND THE CASCADE ZONES.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT...BUT DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES LESS UNSTABLE. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE A
NEW LOW THAT DEVELOPS AROUND 40N 130W 00Z SAT. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO SW OREGON FRI MORNING AND THEN LIFTS NORTH FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO INDUCE OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE. THE NORTH
ZONES COULD BE DRY FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF FRI AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT FRI
INTO SAT MORNING. MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR 12Z SAT CREATE A
HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW STRENGTH...TRACK AND
TIMING. THE GFS IS THE MOST CONSOLIDATED WITH THE SURFAFE LOW 12Z
SAT...WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAM HAVE A MORE ELONGATED LOW WITH MULTIPLE
LOW CENTERS. THE LATEST GFS IS NOW THE SLOWEST WITH THE LOW...WITH A
990 MB CENTER NEAR NEWPORT 18Z SAT. THE ECWMF AND NAM HAVE THE MAIN
LOW CENTER NEAR THE FAR N OREGON OR S WA COAST. THE WRF-GFS VALID 18Z
SAT HAS A SMALL CORE OF 60-70 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG THE S PART OF THE
CENTRAL COAST...BUT BY 21Z WIND GUST SPEEDS FALL OFF TO 40-50 KT. IT
ALSO SHOWS A SMALL CORE OF 40-50 KT GUSTS IN THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AT 21Z. DESPITE ALL OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THERE IS A HIGHER
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE REGARDING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPIONG
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY SAT AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT GUSTS TO AT
LEAST 40 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED AS A HEADS UP TO
THIS POSSIBILITY. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AND
MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OVER THE AREA
TODAY...SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHORT-WAVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO NEAR CASCADE PASS LEVELS SUNDAY. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STILL AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER A BRIEF DRYING
PERIOD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY...THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANA...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS
NEXT THURSDAY. ALL IN ALL...EXPECT WET AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS AS THESE FRONTS MOVE THROUGH. /27
&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
EVENING MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.
DEPENDING ON BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...IFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD CERTAINLY DEVELOP TOWARDS 12Z FRIDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW
AT THIS POINT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE VFR TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...BUT DEPENDING ON BREAKS IN THE MID TO UPPER CLOUDS
TONIGHT...IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS COULD CERTAINLY DEVELOP TOWARDS
12Z FRIDAY. /NEUMAN /MH

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE NOW BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
OVER THE WATERS HOWEVER SEAS ARE STILL AROUND 10 TO 12 FEET SO
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING LESS WIND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ALLOW SEAS TO DROP
BELOW 10 FT FOR FRIDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WELL OFF
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND TRACK EITHER NORTHWARD OR
NORTHEASTWARD JUST BEYOND OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE SATURDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WHERE IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL SO CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. MODELS SUGGEST LANDFALL WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE NORTH OREGON COAST AND VANCOUVER ISLAND. IT SEEMS
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE IS MOST LIKELY. A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. REGARDLESS OF THE
TRACKS PROVIDED BY VARIOUS MODELS...GALE FORCE WINDS APPEAR
INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE
FOR LOW END STORM FORCE GUSTS OF 50 KT IF THE STRONGER AND MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK PANS OUT. SEAS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BECOME STEEP
AND WIND DOMINATED...POSSIBLY REACHING UPWARDS OF 20 FT LATE
SATURDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT THE DETAILS AT THIS
POINT IN TIME REMAIN UNCERTAIN. MODELS DO SUGGEST SEAS WILL RELAX
IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 AM
     TO 7 AM PDT FRIDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 232121
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
221 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy and unsettled conditions will continue for the rest
of today but be on the decrease tonight and into tomorrow. This is
only temporary as rain is expected to return Friday night and
Saturday. A strong cold front passage Saturday Night and Sunday
will produce very windy conditions with gusts in excess of 40 mph.
The pattern will continue to be active into early next week. This
includes the potential for widespread rain into early next week as
moisture associated with former typhoons makes its way toward the
Pacific Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Friday...Expectation for decreasing clouds and pops
overnight as the northern end of the large baroclinic band
extending southwest out into the East Pacific continues to pass
through the forecast area as a wet cold front. The cool
conditionally unstable airmass on the north side of this front
does have numerous small mesoscale shortwaves rotating in it close
to the baroclinic band, and with enough lingering moisture from
recent rainfall a small mention of thunderstorms in proximity to
the exiting frontal zone remain into the early evening hours. The
band continues to work its way to the south and stalls somewhere
in Oregon and Central Idaho which is far enough to the south to
leave a relatively dry forecast for Friday with some mention of
fog/stratus for the early morning hours. The front will come back
up again as a warm front of sorts later on Friday. Due to the
dynamic nature of the forecast and expectation cloud cover will
work to moderate temperatures forecast temperatures remain on the
warm side of what would be considered normal for this time of
year. /Pelatti

Friday night through Sunday night...Quite the active weather pattern
will be coming up through this period of the forecast. And for an
active pattern the models are in pretty good agreement. A warm
front will move back north through the forecast area ahead of an
upstream upper level low. This will bring our first shot of of
precipitation to the area. A cold front will follow Saturday
night with the upper trough lingering over the Inland Northwest
through Sunday night. This will allow the precipitation to become
showery. Also expect decreasing snow levels and windy conditions
Saturday night and Sunday.

*Precipitation: Yes, and quite a bit. The warm front will tap into the
 next atmospheric river...with PWATs rising to between .70 to .80
 which is right around 200 percent of normal. Wet indeed.
 Isentropic up-glide is fairly vigorous and with southeast-south
 low to mid level flow the Cascades east to the western basin
 should receive a pretty good shot of measurable precipitation.
 The warm front will get pushed east early Saturday as the flow
 becomes south-southwesterly. This will shift the focus across the
 northern mountains and finally the Idaho Panhandle Saturday
 afternoon. The cold front will follow Saturday evening. Ample
 showers will continue near the Cascade crest...the northern
 mountains and the Idaho Panhandle through Sunday night, but the
 lower east slopes...Columbia basin and the Palouse will see a
 decrease in the showers by Sunday morning. QPF totals through
 Sunday evening will be between one half and one inch in the
 Cascades. From one quarter to one half in the northern mountains
 and the Idaho Panhandle, and from several hundredths to around
 .20 in the Basin, Palouse and the Spokane/Coeur D`Alene areas.
 Snow levels will start out from 5k feet across the northwest to
 over 7k feet across the southeast and rise 1500-2000 feet through
 the night. So precipitation as mainly rain with some high level
 snow. The snow levels will drop behind the front to below 5k
 feet, but by this time the precipitation should be on the
 decrease. Still several inches of snow will be possible for the
 higher terrain over the Cascades and a couple of inches of snow
 for the Panhandle mountains Saturday night and Sunday. Small
 stream and rivers will have to be monitored for rises...but right
 now the thinking is that there should be no flooding.

*Winds: East to southeast winds Friday and Saturday will switch to the
 southwest ahead of the cold front late Saturday afternoon, then
 increase Saturday night and remain windy/gusty Sunday. Model
 guidance is indicating about 3-6 hour time frame of peak winds
 between 06-12z Sunday. Sustained winds of 25 mph to 30 mph with
 gusts 25 to 40 mph will be common for the ridges...The deep
 basin...The west Plains...but the models focus the strongest
 winds across the Palouse and the lower slopes of the blues where
 sustained winds of 30 to 35 mph or higher with gusts 40 to 50 mph
 will be possible. Winds will decrease by morning but expect a
 windy day on Sunday. This will have to be monitored closely over
 the next 48-72 hours to pin point where the potential problem
 areas may be. No highlights are expected with this forecast
 package.

*Temps: Temperatures will increase on Saturday with the strong
 warm advection associated with the warm front with highs 8-12
 degrees above normal. The temps will then cool back down into the
 50s on Sunday behind the cold front. /Tobin

Monday through Thursday: An active weather pattern continues,
with temperatures hovering around average. The remnants of
Tropical Storm Ana come into the Pacific Northwest early in the
week. This is followed by the approach and possible passage of
additional systems through the week. However by middle to late
week model consistency degrades. Some runs are more eager to bring
systems inland and keep the region wet; other runs hold them
offshore and keep the region drier.

First on Monday a weak shortwave ridge nudges in from the west-
southwest, with a mid-level impulse/jet streak riding over the top
of it during the day. This keeps shower chances alive across
southeast WA to the central Panhandle and near the immediate
Cascade crest. Cooler air behind Sunday`s trough pushes snow level
down toward 4-4.5kft; this means possible snow at pass level. So
we will monitor this, (especially across the central Panhandle
including the I-90 corridor toward Lookout Pass) for some light
accumulations. Quiet weather is expected over the rest of the
region.

From Monday night through Tuesday night that next system comes
in. Ostensibly it comes with another modest moisture fetch which
includes the remains Tropical Storm Ana that are picked up by a
system currently to its northwest. Models are coming into better
agreement. Confidence is not as high as it could be given recent
model inconsistencies, but right now it looks like Tuesday could
be rather wet. Expect thickening clouds Monday night with the main
rain chances increasing over the Cascades. The precipitation
chances rise throughout the region Tuesday as the system moves
inland, with some moderate to locally rainfall possible in the
Cascades and northeast WA and north ID. Snow levels linger around
4-5kft in the morning, then rise to around 5-7kft in the afternoon
over a large part of the region. The main exception could be
across the Canadian border counties where they may linger around
that 4-5kft mark. So if precipitation starts early enough there
could be some snow accumulation around the passes, with the best
threat of it lingering through the day around Sherman Pass where
the warmer air may not reach. With this said, there is still a lot
of room for model changes but it is something to monitor.

By Tuesday night the precipitation focus gradually backs against
the Cascades and retreats to the eastern mountains as the front
passes and a shortwave ridge moves in. From Wednesday to Thursday
models now depict a shortwave ridge dominating the pattern.
However previous runs brought a trough inland. I have trended PoPs
downward away from the Cascades, but still kept some low chances
alive given uncertainty. But if trends hold the forecast may be
dried out completely away from the Cascades. I also increased the
potential for fog across the northern valleys and portions of the
Spokane/C`dA area for the night and early morning hours. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Large stalled out frontal zone draped across the
aviation area will keep rain, and some low stratus clouds
associated with it, in the forecast for much of the day. Additionally
the cool conditionally unstable air behind the front on the north
side of it and various shortwaves moving along the edge of the
front is enough to allow for a minor mention of thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Winds aloft remain robust and from the
southwest and some locations remain decoupled from it this morning
so have included mention of non- convective low level windshear in
those locations as winds shift from light or light from the
northeast to more robust prevalent southwest winds aloft. As to be
expected with such a complicated wind pattern there are likely to
be wind gusts in the afternoon, possibly as high as 30-40kts. With
so much low level moisture available from this recent rainfall
there is some potential for fog and low cloud formation overnight
and into Friday Morning as the front sags to the south. Models
hint that this same front will lift back up from Oregon and push
through the aviation area as a wet warm front Friday
evening/night. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        40  57  43  65  44  53 /  60  10  30  20  50  30
Coeur d`Alene  39  57  40  64  42  53 /  60  10  20  20  60  30
Pullman        42  59  45  69  44  52 /  60  10  40  10  50  30
Lewiston       46  64  46  72  48  58 /  60  20  30  10  40  20
Colville       36  59  41  63  44  53 /  50  10  40  30  70  50
Sandpoint      37  56  38  60  41  49 /  80  10  30  20  80  50
Kellogg        39  53  41  63  42  46 /  80  20  30  10  70  40
Moses Lake     40  59  44  62  46  60 /  10  10  60  20  30  10
Wenatchee      42  57  47  58  46  57 /  10  10  70  50  40  10
Omak           36  58  42  56  44  56 /  10  10  60  50  50  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 231741
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1040 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy and unsettled conditions will continue today...followed by
some light rain Friday. A strong cold front passage Saturday
Night and Sunday will produce very windy conditions with gusts
in excess of 40 mph. The pattern will continue to be active into
early next week. This includes the potential for widespread rain
into early next week as moisture associated with former typhoons
makes its way toward the Pacific Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Forecast updated to increase pops and qpf based on how filled the
radar is with returns this morning along with many surface
observation sites reporting some measurable rainfall this
morning. The chance of thunderstorms this afternoon remains in the
forecast as the atmosphere becomes conditionally unstable north of
the large baroclinic band associated with the jet stream which is
to passing to the south through Oregon and bending up and exiting
through parts of North Idaho and into Northwest Montana. May go
back and increase surface wind gusts this afternoon as the upper
level winds near 700mb at KOTX were near 50kts and around 35kts at
800mb and convection in this conditionally unstable airmass is
likely to mix these robust upper level winds down to the surface
as wind gusts. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Large stalled out frontal zone draped across the
aviation area will keep rain, and some low stratus clouds
associated with it, in the forecast for much of the day. Additionally
the cool conditionally unstable air behind the front on the north
side of it and various shortwaves moving along the edge of the
front is enough to allow for a minor mention of thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Winds aloft remain robust and from the
southwest and some locations remain decoupled from it this morning
so have included mention of non- convective low level windshear in
those locations as winds shift from light or light from the
northeast to more robust prevalent southwest winds aloft. As to be
expected with such a complicated wind pattern there are likely to
be wind gusts in the afternoon, possibly as high as 30-40kts. With
so much low level moisture available from this recent rainfall
there is some potential for fog and low cloud formation overnight
and into Friday Morning as the front sags to the south. Models
hint that this same front will lift back up from Oregon and push
through the aviation area as a wet warm front Friday
evening/night. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        58  40  57  44  65  46 / 100  20  10  20  20  50
Coeur d`Alene  55  39  57  41  65  44 / 100  40  10  20  20  50
Pullman        58  42  59  47  70  46 /  90  30  10  40  10  40
Lewiston       65  46  64  46  73  48 /  70  30  20  40  10  30
Colville       56  36  59  41  66  44 /  70  30  10  50  30  70
Sandpoint      53  37  56  38  62  43 / 100  70  10  30  20  70
Kellogg        51  39  53  42  63  42 / 100  70  20  20  10  60
Moses Lake     65  40  59  45  63  48 /  70  10  10  40  20  30
Wenatchee      62  42  57  47  60  46 /  90  10  10  60  40  30
Omak           61  36  58  44  58  45 /  50  10  10  60  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 231741
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1040 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy and unsettled conditions will continue today...followed by
some light rain Friday. A strong cold front passage Saturday
Night and Sunday will produce very windy conditions with gusts
in excess of 40 mph. The pattern will continue to be active into
early next week. This includes the potential for widespread rain
into early next week as moisture associated with former typhoons
makes its way toward the Pacific Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Forecast updated to increase pops and qpf based on how filled the
radar is with returns this morning along with many surface
observation sites reporting some measurable rainfall this
morning. The chance of thunderstorms this afternoon remains in the
forecast as the atmosphere becomes conditionally unstable north of
the large baroclinic band associated with the jet stream which is
to passing to the south through Oregon and bending up and exiting
through parts of North Idaho and into Northwest Montana. May go
back and increase surface wind gusts this afternoon as the upper
level winds near 700mb at KOTX were near 50kts and around 35kts at
800mb and convection in this conditionally unstable airmass is
likely to mix these robust upper level winds down to the surface
as wind gusts. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Large stalled out frontal zone draped across the
aviation area will keep rain, and some low stratus clouds
associated with it, in the forecast for much of the day. Additionally
the cool conditionally unstable air behind the front on the north
side of it and various shortwaves moving along the edge of the
front is enough to allow for a minor mention of thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Winds aloft remain robust and from the
southwest and some locations remain decoupled from it this morning
so have included mention of non- convective low level windshear in
those locations as winds shift from light or light from the
northeast to more robust prevalent southwest winds aloft. As to be
expected with such a complicated wind pattern there are likely to
be wind gusts in the afternoon, possibly as high as 30-40kts. With
so much low level moisture available from this recent rainfall
there is some potential for fog and low cloud formation overnight
and into Friday Morning as the front sags to the south. Models
hint that this same front will lift back up from Oregon and push
through the aviation area as a wet warm front Friday
evening/night. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        58  40  57  44  65  46 / 100  20  10  20  20  50
Coeur d`Alene  55  39  57  41  65  44 / 100  40  10  20  20  50
Pullman        58  42  59  47  70  46 /  90  30  10  40  10  40
Lewiston       65  46  64  46  73  48 /  70  30  20  40  10  30
Colville       56  36  59  41  66  44 /  70  30  10  50  30  70
Sandpoint      53  37  56  38  62  43 / 100  70  10  30  20  70
Kellogg        51  39  53  42  63  42 / 100  70  20  20  10  60
Moses Lake     65  40  59  45  63  48 /  70  10  10  40  20  30
Wenatchee      62  42  57  47  60  46 /  90  10  10  60  40  30
Omak           61  36  58  44  58  45 /  50  10  10  60  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 231631
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERY WEATHER OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER
TONIGHT. FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN BACK TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG WSW 140-150 KT JET AT 300 MB IS AIMED AT NW
OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A
FAVORED REGION OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE SEEN OVER
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SOME TSTMS SEEN FROM AROUND VANCOUVER BC
SW TO FORKS AND SOME MORE TSTM ACTIVITY FROM THE SW OLYMPICS TO OFF
THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER IN THE N OREGON COASTAL WATERS. THE
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ENOUGH TODAY TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MAIN GULF OF ALASKA LOW
CENTERED NEAR 53N 142W SOUTHWESTWARD TO 44N 165W IS DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TO CAUSE
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF A SYSTEM AROUND 40N 132W LATER FRI. DOWNSTREAM
FROM THIS SYSTEM MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN FORMING WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH
PRES OVER NE WA. THE END RESULT FOR OUR AREA WILL BE A DECREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY THU NIGHT AND A RATHER DRY DAY ON FRIDAY IN LOW
LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS AROUND.

THE 12Z NAM12 AND GFS BOTH SHOW THE LOW BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED
AS IT REACHES ITS MAXIMUM DEPTH AROUND THE NW OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS
SAT MORNING. THIS WILL INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE
AREA...BUT WITH 700 MB FLOW TURNING TO THE S AND 850 MB FLOW FROM
THE EAST WITH A GRADUALLY LOWERING FRONTAL INVERSION...MAY
RESULT IN SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE FOOTHILLS OF THE
CASCADES. SOME AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 405 IN THE CENTRAL PUGET
SOUND AREA MAY GET RATHER WINDY FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. WHILE THE GFS SHOWS 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN FRI NIGHT OR
EARLY SAT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY GET CUT BACK NEAR THE
CASCADES AS A RESULT OF THE GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS.

THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING WILL BE TRICKY AND
WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND DEPTH OF THE OFFSHORE LOW AS IT MOVES
NE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY COME INTO A
CONSENSUS THAT THE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 977-990 MB OFF THE NW OREGON
OFFSHORE WATERS THEN SLOWLY FILL TO 985-995 MB AS IT LIFTS NE TO
A TRACK FROM ABOUT HOQUIAM TO SEATTLE THEN INTO THE N CASCADES.
KPDX-KBLI PRES GRADIENTS RANGE FROM 10 MB IN THE WEAKER AND SOMEWHAT
LESS DEVELOPED 12Z GFS...TO UP TO 15 MB IN THE 12Z NAM12 AND 00Z
CANADIAN SOLUTIONS AND 12-14 MB IN THE 00Z ECMWF. THE GFS TENDS TO
BE A BIT UNDERDEVELOPED WITH THESE SYSTEMS. THIS WOULD HINT THAT THE
COAST AND THE INTERIOR FROM SEATTLE SOUTHWARD COULD SEE SOME WINDS
TOUCH THE HIGH WIND CRITERIA --35-40 MB WITH GUSTS TO 50-60 MPH--
FOR A FEW HOURS LATE SAT AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL LIKELY ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER LOOKING AT THE
WRFGFS...12Z CANADIAN AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SUN WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND
THE LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT AND THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SUN NIGHT. MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE A LULL
BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

THE GFS BRINGS THE NEXT SYSTEM CONTAINING THE REMNANTS OF ANA INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOST MODELS RAPIDLY FILL THE LOW
RAPIDLY AS IT APPROACHES SO WIND MAY NOT BE AN ISSUE BUT IT ALSO
BARES WATCHING. IT SHOULD BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA BUT AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS TO BE A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WHICH WILL LIMIT THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL. ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN INTO THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.  MERCER/ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TODAY BUT ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS
WILL NOT BE HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT. THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BUT GRADUALLY RECEDE TODAY...FALLING BELOW
FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING. REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT
BULLETIN FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION.

WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. BUT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DRIVE ANY RIVERS ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE. MERCER/ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...AIR MASS UNSTABLE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

NOTHING REALLY ORGANIZED MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BUT SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OFFSHORE EXTENDING BACK TO NEAR 160W. IN GENERAL CEILINGS IN
THE 4000 TO 6000 FOOT RANGE LOWERING DOWN TO NEAR 2000 FEET WITH
VISIBILITIES 3-5SM BRIEFLY IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE AIR MASS IS
UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

KSEA...CEILINGS IN THE 4000-6000 FOOT RANGE DROPPING DOWN TO NEAR
2000 FEET IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...
LOWER PRES OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND HIGHER PRES OVER CALIFORNIA
WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY
ON FRI DUE TO A SURFACE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SW. THIS LOW WILL
DEEPEN TO 987 MB OFF THE OREGON COAST. EXPECT IT TO WEAKEN TO 990 MB
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WASHINGTON COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS WERE STILL NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TRACK...TIMING...AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED THE
END OF THIS WEEK. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT...THIS SYSTEM
COULD PRODUCE ANYWHERE FROM HIGH END GALE OR LOW END STORM FORCE
WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA OR INCONSEQUENTIAL WIND SPEEDS. THE
FORECAST REFLECTS THE CONSENSUS.


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON
      COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
      COASTAL WATERS...CENTRAL/EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE
      FUCA...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...ADMIRALTY INLET...AND PUGET
      SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS
      EVENING FOR THE GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KPQR 231626
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
923 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A RELATIVELY COOL AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE SHOWER ACTIVITY...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING VERY STRONG WIND TO THE COAST AND WINDY CONDITIONS
INLAND...BUT TIMING AND STRENGTH ARE STILL IN DOUBT. ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TODAY THRU SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH
MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS. A LARGE SWATH OF COLD AIR CUMULUS OVER
THE NE PACIFIC WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT OVER THE AREA TODAY.
THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OFFSHORE WITHIN THIS CUMULUS
FIELD SO CANNOT RULE OUT A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE
MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SW-W 850 MB FLOW OF 15-25 KT WILL PROVIDE GOOD
OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE OREGON COAST RANGE...SW
WA WILLAPA HILLS...AND THE CASCADE ZONES.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT...BUT DIMINISH IN COVERAGE.
ALL THE MODELS SHOW A NEW LOW DEVELOPING AT THE BASE OF THE OFFSHORE
LONG WAVE TROUGH...THEN LIFTING NORTH TOWARD OUR AREA ON FRIDAY.
WHILE SOME DETAILS VARY AMONGST THE MODELS...THE MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR SOME MORE RAIN. MODELS THEN SWING A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MORE WIND
AND RAIN. CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE REGARDING THE
TIMING...TRACK AND OVERALL STRENGHT OF THIS DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW.
THE LATEST NAM LOOKS TO BE THE QUICKEST MOVING THE LOW INTO THE S
WASHINGTON WATERS SAT AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS SLIGHLY SLOWER AND HAS
THE LOW CENTER INTO WRN WA BY 00Z SUN. THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST BUT
ALSO HAS THE LOW CENTER ALONG THE WA COASTLINE AS WELL. THERE IS
REASONABLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THE COASTAL AREAS COULD GET ANOTHER SHOT
OF HIGH WIND. THE BIGGER QUESTION MARK IS HOW MUCH WIND THE INLAND
AREAS RECEIVE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ADVISORY-LEVEL WIND GUSTS
FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY LATE SAT AFTEROON. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED
AS A HEADS UP TO THIS POSSIBILITY. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE
ON THIS SYSTEM AND MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION EVERY 24 TO 48 HOURS. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
SHOULD GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5000 FT SUNDAY AND MONDAY SO CASCADE PASSES MAY
SEE SOME SNOW BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH MUCH LESS AGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS. IN FACT THE 00Z GFS IS ALMOST COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH
THE 00Z EURO IN THE UPPER LEVELS STARTING MIDWEEK. BOWEN/TJ

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF SHOWERS TODAY WILL OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE
A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND MVFR CONDITIONS
INLAND...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE MAIN STORY TODAY AS
SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN SPREADS OVER THE REGION. THE VFR TREND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT DEPENDING ON BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS COULD CERTAINLY
DEVELOP TOWARDS 12Z FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z
FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...PERIODS OF SHOWERS TODAY WILL OCCASIONALLY
PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE MAIN
STORY. THE VFR TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT DEPENDING
ON BREAKS IN THE MID TO UPPER CLOUDS TONIGHT...IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS
COULD CERTAINLY DEVELOP TOWARDS 12Z FRIDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...AFTER SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT TODAY ACROSS THE
WATERS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LESS WIND TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AND ALLOW SEAS TO DROP BELOW 10 FT FOR FRIDAY.

HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
WELL OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND TRACK EITHER NORTHWARD
OR NORTHEASTWARD JUST BEYOND OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE
SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WHERE IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW. MODELS SUGGEST LANDFALL WILL OCCUR
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE NORTH OREGON COAST AND VANCOUVER ISLAND. IT
SEEMS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE IS MOST LIKELY. A MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
REGARDLESS OF THE TRACKS PROVIDED BY VARIOUS MODELS...GALE FORCE
WINDS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SATURDAY
WITH A CHANCE FOR LOW END STORM FORCE GUSTS OF 50 KT IF THE
STRONGER AND MORE SOUTHERN TRACK PANS OUT. SEAS WILL ALMOST
CERTAINLY BECOME STEEP AND WIND DOMINATED...POSSIBLY REACHING
UPWARDS OF 20 FT LATE SATURDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT THE DETAILS AT THIS
POINT IN TIME REMAIN UNCERTAIN. MODELS DO SUGGEST SEAS WILL RELAX
IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 AM TO
     7 AM PDT FRIDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 231446
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
746 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy and unsettled conditions will continue today...followed by
some light rain Friday. A strong cold front passage Saturday
Night and Sunday will produce very windy conditions with gusts
in excess of 40 mph. The pattern will continue to be active into
early next week. This includes the potential for widespread rain
into early next week as moisture associated with former typhoons
makes its way toward the Pacific Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Forecast updated to increase pops and qpf based on how filled the
radar is with returns this morning along with many surface
obseration sites reporting some measurable rainfall this morning.
The chance of thunderstorms this afternoon remains in the forecast
as the atmosphere becomes conditionally unstable north of the
large baroclinic band associated with the jet stream which is to
passing to the south through Oregon and bending up and exiting
through parts of North Idaho and into Northwest Montana. May go
back and increase surface wind gusts this afternoon as the upper
level winds near 700mb at KOTX were near 50kts and around 35kts at
800mb and convection in this conditionally unstable airmass is
likely to mix these robust upper level winds down to the surface
as wind gusts. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Moist occluded front will continue to cover the SE
forecast sites through most of the day. This will equate to
periodic or at least vicinity showers through 00z for LWS and
PUW. The shower threat will increase for all locations as a
shortwave trough crosses the Cascades around 18z...and heads into
eastern WA/north Idaho between 21-00z. Thunderstorms are a
possibility across the eastern third of Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle...as well as the threat of wind gusts from 30-40kts.
Despite the unsettled weather...cigs will generally remain in the
VFR category. Weather will dry at all sites overnight as shortwave
ridging moves in. Fog and stratus will be a possibility...but
too small to place in forecasts for now. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        58  40  57  44  65  46 / 100  20  10  20  20  50
Coeur d`Alene  55  39  57  41  65  44 / 100  40  10  20  20  50
Pullman        58  42  59  47  70  46 /  90  30  10  40  10  40
Lewiston       65  46  64  46  73  48 /  70  30  20  40  10  30
Colville       56  36  59  41  66  44 /  70  30  10  50  30  70
Sandpoint      53  37  56  38  62  43 / 100  70  10  30  20  70
Kellogg        51  39  53  42  63  42 / 100  70  20  20  10  60
Moses Lake     65  40  59  45  63  48 /  70  10  10  40  20  30
Wenatchee      62  42  57  47  60  46 /  90  10  10  60  40  30
Omak           61  36  58  44  58  45 /  50  10  10  60  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 231446
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
746 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy and unsettled conditions will continue today...followed by
some light rain Friday. A strong cold front passage Saturday
Night and Sunday will produce very windy conditions with gusts
in excess of 40 mph. The pattern will continue to be active into
early next week. This includes the potential for widespread rain
into early next week as moisture associated with former typhoons
makes its way toward the Pacific Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Forecast updated to increase pops and qpf based on how filled the
radar is with returns this morning along with many surface
obseration sites reporting some measurable rainfall this morning.
The chance of thunderstorms this afternoon remains in the forecast
as the atmosphere becomes conditionally unstable north of the
large baroclinic band associated with the jet stream which is to
passing to the south through Oregon and bending up and exiting
through parts of North Idaho and into Northwest Montana. May go
back and increase surface wind gusts this afternoon as the upper
level winds near 700mb at KOTX were near 50kts and around 35kts at
800mb and convection in this conditionally unstable airmass is
likely to mix these robust upper level winds down to the surface
as wind gusts. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Moist occluded front will continue to cover the SE
forecast sites through most of the day. This will equate to
periodic or at least vicinity showers through 00z for LWS and
PUW. The shower threat will increase for all locations as a
shortwave trough crosses the Cascades around 18z...and heads into
eastern WA/north Idaho between 21-00z. Thunderstorms are a
possibility across the eastern third of Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle...as well as the threat of wind gusts from 30-40kts.
Despite the unsettled weather...cigs will generally remain in the
VFR category. Weather will dry at all sites overnight as shortwave
ridging moves in. Fog and stratus will be a possibility...but
too small to place in forecasts for now. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        58  40  57  44  65  46 / 100  20  10  20  20  50
Coeur d`Alene  55  39  57  41  65  44 / 100  40  10  20  20  50
Pullman        58  42  59  47  70  46 /  90  30  10  40  10  40
Lewiston       65  46  64  46  73  48 /  70  30  20  40  10  30
Colville       56  36  59  41  66  44 /  70  30  10  50  30  70
Sandpoint      53  37  56  38  62  43 / 100  70  10  30  20  70
Kellogg        51  39  53  42  63  42 / 100  70  20  20  10  60
Moses Lake     65  40  59  45  63  48 /  70  10  10  40  20  30
Wenatchee      62  42  57  47  60  46 /  90  10  10  60  40  30
Omak           61  36  58  44  58  45 /  50  10  10  60  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 231159
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
459 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy and unsettled conditions will continue today...followed by
some light rain Friday. A strong cold front passage Saturday
Night and Sunday will produce very windy conditions with gusts
in excess of 40 mph. The pattern will continue to be active into
early next week. This includes the potential for widespread rain
into early next week as moisture associated with former typhoons
makes its way toward the Pacific Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tonight...The occluded front and atmospheric river which
impacted much of the Inland Northwest has now shifted into
extreme eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. Widespread
precipitation continues to fall along and ahead of the
front...while drier air has infiltrated areas west of the
front...with the precipitation turning increasingly showery. Thus
far most of the post-frontal showers have occurred near the
Cascade Crest and points westward. This was due to the presence of
the drier air combined with increased westerly mid-level flow over
the Cascades. This trend will likely continue through much of the
morning...with the drier air spreading slowly eastward. So for the
morning...the most widespread precipitation is expected to fall
either near the crest or over southern half of the Idaho Panhandle
and adjacent portions of southeast Washington.

Precipitation chances will increase once again during the afternoon.
This is in response to a weak shortwave trough forming just east
of 45n/130w. All model guidance depicts the current location of
this feature...and most take it over the Cascades by midday and
across the remainder of the forecast area during the afternoon.
Although this feature won`t have the deep moisture to work with as
the atmospheric river continues to sag south...it will feast off a
rapidly destabilizing atmosphere.. 500 mb temperatures ahead of
the feature will fall anywhere from 3-5c vs yesterday while the
low-level temperatures actually warm. This results in lifted index
values dropping below zero near the Cascades...as well as near the
Canadian border...most of the Idaho Panhandle and extreme eastern
Washington. MUCAPE values also rise into the 300-700 j/kg range.
Although these values aren`t terribly impressive by
themselves...model soundings suggest there will be a potential for
thunderstorms with equilibrium level temperatures at -20c or
colder. Since this is a borderline case...we don`t necessarily
expect widespread thunder...but certainly enough to warrant
throwing in the forecast. Precipitation amounts should be
generally light compared to yesterday...but the rain rates could
be considerably higher. Storms which form will likely move rapidly
northeast and could result in gusty winds to 30-40 mph.

The weather will settle down tonight as the shortwave trough pushes
east of the forecast area...and drier and more stable air
overtakes the region. Skies will generally undergo a clearing
trend...and valley fog will become an issue overnight...especially
for the northern valleys where winds are expected to remain the
lightest. fx

Fri through Sunday: No big changes for Fri and Fri Nt as the
slow-moving warm front doesn`t move north across Ern Wa until
Sat morning. Southeast flow/downslope off the Palouse should help
to keep rainfall amnts light for SE Wa and the Idaho Panhandle.
The areal coverage of the heaviest pcpn remains unchanged and
limited to a zone of upslope and modest isentropic ascent north
of a line from Moses Lake to Colville. Much of our focus has been
on the weekend fcst as the upper trough and strong sfc cyclone
lifts NE along the Pac Nw coast Sat. Model guidance is in better
agreement with the track of this low, with an overall slower
passage of the upper trough. This slower timing should allow much
of Ern Wa and N Idaho to remain dry and mild with well above
normal high temps within a northward-surging 850mb thermal ridge
of 10c-15c for SE Wa. Once fropa occurs Sat Nt, the pressure
gradient remains very tight as the deep sfc low moves into BC. We
should see 850mb winds of 40-50kts Sat Nt and Sunday as the post-
frontal dry slot axis moves across the Columbia Basin. If this
pattern remains unchanged, we`ll likely see very gusty winds Sat
Nt and Sunday that would easily reach wind advsy criteria with
gusts at or above 45 mph. Though snow levels lower Sat Nt and
Sunday potentially to 4500 ft for all mtn zones bordering BC,
significant accumulations are not expected. bz

Monday through Wednesday: The Southwest flow pattern will continue
to push waves of moisture and instability across the region during
this period. The models are in fairly good agreement on the track
and moisture associated with these waves. The wave on Monday is
trending drier than the wave on Tuesday. Warmer temperatures
associated with this pattern will keep the precip to mainly rain
with a chance of a few snowflakes in the higher elevations of the
Cascades. The entire Inland Northwest is expected to receive some
precip with the weakest chances on the East side of the Cascades.
Temperatures will be on the warming trend with highs starting
around low 50s and ending near 60. The lows will range from mid
30s to mid 40s. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Moist occluded front will continue to cover the SE
forecast sites through most of the day. This will equate to
periodic or at least vicinity showers through 00z for LWS and
PUW. The shower threat will increase for all locations as a
shortwave trough crosses the Cascades around 18z...and heads into
eastern WA/north Idaho between 21-00z. Thunderstorms are a
possibility across the eastern third of Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle...as well as the threat of wind gusts from 30-40kts.
Despite the unsettled weather...cigs will generally remain in the
VFR category. Weather will dry at all sites overnight as shortwave
ridging moves in. Fog and stratus will be a possibility...but
too small to place in forecasts for now. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        58  40  57  44  65  46 /  70  20  10  20  20  50
Coeur d`Alene  55  39  57  41  65  44 /  80  40  10  20  20  50
Pullman        58  42  59  47  70  46 /  80  30  10  40  10  40
Lewiston       65  46  64  46  73  48 /  70  30  20  40  10  30
Colville       56  36  59  41  66  44 /  70  30  10  50  30  70
Sandpoint      53  37  56  38  62  43 / 100  70  10  30  20  70
Kellogg        51  39  53  42  63  42 /  90  70  20  20  10  60
Moses Lake     65  40  59  45  63  48 /  50  10  10  40  20  30
Wenatchee      62  42  57  47  60  46 /  50  10  10  60  40  30
Omak           61  36  58  44  58  45 /  50  10  10  60  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 231033
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERY WEATHER OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN BACK TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH SOME LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG WESTERLY 140-150KT JET WILL STAY AIMED INTO
OREGON TODAY KEEPING WRN UNDER A FAVORED REGION OF LIFT. A SHORT
WAVE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY APPROACHING THE COAST WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. THE IR SATELLITE IMAGE
INDICATES COOLING CLOUD TOPS SO THE IDEA OF INCREASED INSTABILITY
TODAY LOOKS ON TRACK. MODEL LI`S ARE FORECAST -1 TO -2C WITH CAPE UP
TO 500J/KG WHICH WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
LIGHTING DETECTION IS ALREADY SHOWING STRIKES JUST OFFSHORE AND ALSO
OVER WHATCOM COUNTY UNDER AN ENHANCED BAND OF SHOWERS. MODELS ARE
HINTING THAT SURFACE RIDGING MAY DEVELOP LATER TODAY W OF PUGET
SOUND. THIS COULD GENERATE A CONVERGENCE ZONE AROUND WRN SNOHOMISH
COUNTY LATER IN THE DAY. IT IS UNLIKELY TO PERSIST VERY LONG AS THE
JET LIFTS NWD DIRECTLY OVER WRN WA AND THE SURFACE PATTERN WEAKENS
TONIGHT.

THE FLOW BECOME MORE ZONAL TONIGHT BUT THE GFS STILL BRINGS ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE
FLOW LIFTS FAR ENOUGH TO THE N SO THAT THE JET BECOMES DIRECTED INTO
B.C. RATHER THAN WA. THIS SHOULD HAPPEN FRIDAY MORNING...SO SHOWERS
SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE AND MOSTLY END BY AFTERNOON. ANY BREAK IN
RAINFALL FRIDAY WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING
OFFSHORE.

00Z MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD NRN
STREAM TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM THE BERING SEA CAN BEEN SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR QUICKLY DRIVING SWD OVER THE PACIFIC. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL
ENCOUNTER THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE THAT HAS TAPPED THE
TROPICS. WHEN THESE TWO MERGE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...CYCLOGENESIS
WILL OCCUR ALONG THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY JUST S OF 40 N AND
130-140W. AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS THE FLOW OVER THE PAC NW
WILL LIFT NWD. A WARM FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH WRN
WA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA. AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE TO ELY FLOW SUCH AS THE FOOTHILLS AND GAPS
NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS MAY BECOME BREEZY UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
N.

MODELS MOSTLY AGREE THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO ROUGHLY
980-985 MB AS IT WOBBLES NWD ALONG 130 W OFF THE NRN CA/S OREGON
COASTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD REACH THE NRN OREGON OR S WA
COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY BUT SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE PROCESS OF
FILLING. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW DEEP AND CONSOLIDATED THE LOW WILL
REMAIN AS IT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY. THE 00Z MODEL TRACKS ARE
CLUSTERED AROUND THE LOW REACHING THE S WA COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING
BUT FILLING AS IT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS SYSTEM BARES WATCHING AS THE
REGION OF DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS IN
OUR AREA. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE HOWEVER THAT MOST MODELS ARE
SHOWING MATURE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE FRIDAY...THEN SLOWLY FILL THE LOW
AS IT REACHES THE PAC NW WHICH WOULD LIMIT WIND POTENTIAL. SOME
MODELS ALSO DO NOT FULLY CONSOLIDATE THE LOW OR THEY BRING IT INLAND
S OF PUGET SOUND WHICH COULD KEEP STRONGER WINDS S OF THE AREA. A
LOT COULD CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS SO IT WILL BE A GOOD IDEA
TO MONITOR FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...MOST MODELS TRACK LOW PRESSURE NE ACROSS WA ON SUNDAY.
IT COULD BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK. RAIN IS
LIKELY EARLY ON BUT WILL BECOME SHOWERY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES
BEHIND THE LOW. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WILL A LULL
ON MONDAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

THE GFS BRINGS THE NEXT SYSTEM CONTAINING THE REMNANTS OF ANNA INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOST MODELS RAPIDLY FILL THE LOW
RAPIDLY AS IT APPROACHES SO WIND MAY NOT BE AN ISSUE BUT IT ALSO
BARES WATCHING. IT SHOULD BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA BUT AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS TO BE A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WHICH WILL LIMIT THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL. ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN INTO THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.  MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TODAY BUT ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS
WILL NOT BE HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT. THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BUT GRADUALLY RECEDE TODAY...FALLING BELOW
FLOOD STAGE LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING. REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENT BULLETIN FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION.

WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. BUT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DRIVE ANY RIVERS ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...AIR MASS UNSTABLE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

NOTHING REALLY ORGANIZED MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BUT SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OFFSHORE EXTENDING BACK TO NEAR 160W. IN GENERAL CEILINGS IN
THE 4000 TO 6000 FOOT RANGE LOWERING DOWN TO NEAR 2000 FEET WITH
VISIBILITIES 3-5SM BRIEFLY IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE AIR MASS IS
UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

KSEA...CEILINGS IN THE 4000-6000 FOOT RANGE DROPPING DOWN TO NEAR
2000 FEET IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS 6 TO 10 KNOTS WITH BRIEF HIGHER
GUSTS IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY BUT
WITH THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
GETTING MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY FOR THE
INLAND WATERS. SWELL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS STILL IN DOUBLE DIGITS
BUT WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 10 FEET TONIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS. A 988 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND MOVE INTO THE OREGON COASTAL WATERS ON
SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE INLAND
WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BE CRUCIAL IN HOW
MUCH WIND DEVELOPS OVER THE MARINE AREAS. AT THIS POINT GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING OVER ALL OF
THE WATERS. THE WINDS WILL EASE ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON
      COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
     FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM
     TODAY.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT INLAND WATERS AND
     ADMIRALTY INLET TODAY.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT THIS
     AFTERNOON.

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KPQR 231006
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
306 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR CUMULUS
OFFSHORE THAT WILL SPREAD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH. THE NEXT RATHER
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED
STRONG COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALSO MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WITH A BOUT OF FAIRLY STRONG WINDS AT THE COAST AND
POSSIBLY INLAND. YET ANOTHER FRONT IS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY...THERE IS A
GOOD AREA OF COLD AIR CUMULUS AND SHOWERS WITH A BIT OF CONSISTENT
LIGHTNING OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THAT WILL SPREAD ONSHORE TODAY FOR
MORE SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THEM...SO A THREAT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SOME
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT...BUT THEN ALL THE MODELS SHOW A NEW
LOW DEVELOPING AT THE BASE OF THE OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH...THEN
LIFTING NORTH TOWARD OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. WHILE SOME DETAILS VARY
AMONGST THE MODELS...THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOME MORE RAIN
WHILE CAUSING EAST WINDS TO0 DEVELOP. THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MORE RAIN. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES ONSHORE LATE SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS
DISAGREE ON WHERE...AND COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AT
THE COAST AND POSSIBLY INLAND AS WELL. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE
ON THIS SYSTEM AND MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINDS IN THE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
BOWEN/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH FRONTAL
SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EVERY 24 TO 48 HOURS. A WARM FRONT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5000 FT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY SO CASCADE PASSES MAY SEE SOME SNOW BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT A
COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH MUCH
LESS AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. IN FACT THE 00Z GFS IS ALMOST
COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH THE 00Z EURO IN THE UPPER LEVELS
STARTING MIDWEEK. BOWEN/TJ

&&

.AVIATION...WITH THE COLD FRONT DOWN INTO SW OREGON THIS MORNING
SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TODAY AND TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE SHOWERS ESP
BEFORE 03Z THIS EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME OF THE
SHOWERS THROUGH 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...QUIETER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND
FRI WITH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20 KTS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO
JUST UNDER 10 FT BY FRI.

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITHE BOTH THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW...A DEEP LOW PRES SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH FROM THE SW FRI NIGHT...AND MOVE NE UP OFF THE OREGON COAST
SAT...AND INLAND OVER NW WA SAT NIGHT. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN STORM FORCE
GUSTS LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS BUILDING
AS HIGH AS 20 FT. A COASTAL JET WOULD LIKELY ENHANCE NEARSHORE
WINDS SAT EVENING.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 230958
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
258 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy and unsettled conditions will continue today...followed by
some light rain Friday. A strong cold front passage Saturday
Night and Sunday will produce very windy conditions with gusts
in excess of 40 mph. The pattern will continue to be active into
early next week. This includes the potential for widespread rain
into early next week as moisture associated with former typhoons
makes its way toward the Pacific Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tonight...The occluded front and atmospheric river which
impacted much of the Inland Northwest has now shifted into
extreme eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. Widespread
precipitation continues to fall along and ahead of the
front...while drier air has infiltrated areas west of the
front...with the precipitation turning increasingly showery. Thus
far most of the post-frontal showers have occurred near the
Cascade Crest and points westward. This was due to the presence of
the drier air combined with increased westerly mid-level flow over
the Cascades. This trend will likely continue through much of the
morning...with the drier air spreading slowly eastward. So for the
morning...the most widespread precipitation is expected to fall
either near the crest or over southern half of the Idaho Panhandle
and adjacent portions of southeast Washington.

Precipitation chances will increase once again during the afternoon.
This is in response to a weak shortwave trough forming just east
of 45n/130w. All model guidance depicts the current location of
this feature...and most take it over the Cascades by midday and
across the remainder of the forecast area during the afternoon.
Although this feature won`t have the deep moisture to work with as
the atmospheric river continues to sag south...it will feast off a
rapidly destabilizing atmosphere.. 500 mb temperatures ahead of
the feature will fall anywhere from 3-5c vs yesterday while the
low-level temperatures actually warm. This results in lifted index
values dropping below zero near the Cascades...as well as near the
Canadian border...most of the Idaho Panhandle and extreme eastern
Washington. MUCAPE values also rise into the 300-700 j/kg range.
Although these values aren`t terribly impressive by
themselves...model soundings suggest there will be a potential for
thunderstorms with equilibrium level temperatures at -20c or
colder. Since this is a borderline case...we don`t necessarily
expect widespread thunder...but certainly enough to warrant
throwing in the forecast. Precipitation amounts should be
generally light compared to yesterday...but the rain rates could
be considerably higher. Storms which form will likely move rapidly
northeast and could result in gusty winds to 30-40 mph.

The weather will settle down tonight as the shortwave trough pushes
east of the forecast area...and drier and more stable air
overtakes the region. Skies will generally undergo a clearing
trend...and valley fog will become an issue overnight...especially
for the northern valleys where winds are expected to remain the
lightest. fx

Fri through Sunday: No big changes for Fri and Fri Nt as the
slow-moving warm front doesn`t move north across Ern Wa until
Sat morning. Southeast flow/downslope off the Palouse should help
to keep rainfall amnts light for SE Wa and the Idaho Panhandle.
The areal coverage of the heaviest pcpn remains unchanged and
limited to a zone of upslope and modest isentropic ascent north
of a line from Moses Lake to Colville. Much of our focus has been
on the weekend fcst as the upper trough and strong sfc cyclone
lifts NE along the Pac Nw coast Sat. Model guidance is in better
agreement with the track of this low, with an overall slower
passage of the upper trough. This slower timing should allow much
of Ern Wa and N Idaho to remain dry and mild with well above
normal high temps within a northward-surging 850mb thermal ridge
of 10c-15c for SE Wa. Once fropa occurs Sat Nt, the pressure
gradient remains very tight as the deep sfc low moves into BC. We
should see 850mb winds of 40-50kts Sat Nt and Sunday as the post-
frontal dry slot axis moves across the Columbia Basin. If this
pattern remains unchanged, we`ll likely see very gusty winds Sat
Nt and Sunday that would easily reach wind advsy criteria with
gusts at or above 45 mph. Though snow levels lower Sat Nt and
Sunday potentially to 4500 ft for all mtn zones bordering BC,
significant accumulations are not expected. bz

Monday through Wednesday: The Southwest flow pattern will continue
to push waves of moisture and instability across the region during
this period. The models are in fairly good agreement on the track
and moisture associated with these waves. The wave on Monday is
trending drier than the wave on Tuesday. Warmer temperatures
associated with this pattern will keep the precip to mainly rain
with a chance of a few snowflakes in the higher elevations of the
Cascades. The entire Inland Northwest is expected to receive some
precip with the weakest chances on the East side of the Cascades.
Temperatures will be on the warming trend with highs starting
around low 50s and ending near 60. The lows will range from mid
30s to mid 40s. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A trailing occluded front will sweep through the region
overnight with heavier rain along and immediately behind the
front. A moist boundary layer even after the FROPA will likely
promote continued MVFR (and possibly IFR) stratus ceilings through
20Z Thursday at the KGEG area TAF sites and KEAT. Gusty winds will
help to lift low stratus after 20Z Thursday. Scattered showers
will develop across the higher terrain surrounding the basin
during the afternoon hours. Isolated thunderstorms may develop
north of the KGEG-KCOE area and are not likely to affect any TAF
site. /EK




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        58  40  57  44  65  46 /  70  20  10  20  20  50
Coeur d`Alene  55  39  57  41  65  44 /  80  40  10  20  20  50
Pullman        58  42  59  47  70  46 /  80  30  10  40  10  40
Lewiston       65  46  64  46  73  48 /  70  30  20  40  10  30
Colville       56  36  59  41  66  44 /  70  30  10  50  30  70
Sandpoint      53  37  56  38  62  43 / 100  70  10  30  20  70
Kellogg        51  39  53  42  63  42 /  90  70  20  20  10  60
Moses Lake     65  40  59  45  63  48 /  50  10  10  40  20  30
Wenatchee      62  42  57  47  60  46 /  50  10  10  60  40  30
Omak           61  36  58  44  58  45 /  50  10  10  60  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 230958
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
258 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy and unsettled conditions will continue today...followed by
some light rain Friday. A strong cold front passage Saturday
Night and Sunday will produce very windy conditions with gusts
in excess of 40 mph. The pattern will continue to be active into
early next week. This includes the potential for widespread rain
into early next week as moisture associated with former typhoons
makes its way toward the Pacific Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tonight...The occluded front and atmospheric river which
impacted much of the Inland Northwest has now shifted into
extreme eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. Widespread
precipitation continues to fall along and ahead of the
front...while drier air has infiltrated areas west of the
front...with the precipitation turning increasingly showery. Thus
far most of the post-frontal showers have occurred near the
Cascade Crest and points westward. This was due to the presence of
the drier air combined with increased westerly mid-level flow over
the Cascades. This trend will likely continue through much of the
morning...with the drier air spreading slowly eastward. So for the
morning...the most widespread precipitation is expected to fall
either near the crest or over southern half of the Idaho Panhandle
and adjacent portions of southeast Washington.

Precipitation chances will increase once again during the afternoon.
This is in response to a weak shortwave trough forming just east
of 45n/130w. All model guidance depicts the current location of
this feature...and most take it over the Cascades by midday and
across the remainder of the forecast area during the afternoon.
Although this feature won`t have the deep moisture to work with as
the atmospheric river continues to sag south...it will feast off a
rapidly destabilizing atmosphere.. 500 mb temperatures ahead of
the feature will fall anywhere from 3-5c vs yesterday while the
low-level temperatures actually warm. This results in lifted index
values dropping below zero near the Cascades...as well as near the
Canadian border...most of the Idaho Panhandle and extreme eastern
Washington. MUCAPE values also rise into the 300-700 j/kg range.
Although these values aren`t terribly impressive by
themselves...model soundings suggest there will be a potential for
thunderstorms with equilibrium level temperatures at -20c or
colder. Since this is a borderline case...we don`t necessarily
expect widespread thunder...but certainly enough to warrant
throwing in the forecast. Precipitation amounts should be
generally light compared to yesterday...but the rain rates could
be considerably higher. Storms which form will likely move rapidly
northeast and could result in gusty winds to 30-40 mph.

The weather will settle down tonight as the shortwave trough pushes
east of the forecast area...and drier and more stable air
overtakes the region. Skies will generally undergo a clearing
trend...and valley fog will become an issue overnight...especially
for the northern valleys where winds are expected to remain the
lightest. fx

Fri through Sunday: No big changes for Fri and Fri Nt as the
slow-moving warm front doesn`t move north across Ern Wa until
Sat morning. Southeast flow/downslope off the Palouse should help
to keep rainfall amnts light for SE Wa and the Idaho Panhandle.
The areal coverage of the heaviest pcpn remains unchanged and
limited to a zone of upslope and modest isentropic ascent north
of a line from Moses Lake to Colville. Much of our focus has been
on the weekend fcst as the upper trough and strong sfc cyclone
lifts NE along the Pac Nw coast Sat. Model guidance is in better
agreement with the track of this low, with an overall slower
passage of the upper trough. This slower timing should allow much
of Ern Wa and N Idaho to remain dry and mild with well above
normal high temps within a northward-surging 850mb thermal ridge
of 10c-15c for SE Wa. Once fropa occurs Sat Nt, the pressure
gradient remains very tight as the deep sfc low moves into BC. We
should see 850mb winds of 40-50kts Sat Nt and Sunday as the post-
frontal dry slot axis moves across the Columbia Basin. If this
pattern remains unchanged, we`ll likely see very gusty winds Sat
Nt and Sunday that would easily reach wind advsy criteria with
gusts at or above 45 mph. Though snow levels lower Sat Nt and
Sunday potentially to 4500 ft for all mtn zones bordering BC,
significant accumulations are not expected. bz

Monday through Wednesday: The Southwest flow pattern will continue
to push waves of moisture and instability across the region during
this period. The models are in fairly good agreement on the track
and moisture associated with these waves. The wave on Monday is
trending drier than the wave on Tuesday. Warmer temperatures
associated with this pattern will keep the precip to mainly rain
with a chance of a few snowflakes in the higher elevations of the
Cascades. The entire Inland Northwest is expected to receive some
precip with the weakest chances on the East side of the Cascades.
Temperatures will be on the warming trend with highs starting
around low 50s and ending near 60. The lows will range from mid
30s to mid 40s. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A trailing occluded front will sweep through the region
overnight with heavier rain along and immediately behind the
front. A moist boundary layer even after the FROPA will likely
promote continued MVFR (and possibly IFR) stratus ceilings through
20Z Thursday at the KGEG area TAF sites and KEAT. Gusty winds will
help to lift low stratus after 20Z Thursday. Scattered showers
will develop across the higher terrain surrounding the basin
during the afternoon hours. Isolated thunderstorms may develop
north of the KGEG-KCOE area and are not likely to affect any TAF
site. /EK




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        58  40  57  44  65  46 /  70  20  10  20  20  50
Coeur d`Alene  55  39  57  41  65  44 /  80  40  10  20  20  50
Pullman        58  42  59  47  70  46 /  80  30  10  40  10  40
Lewiston       65  46  64  46  73  48 /  70  30  20  40  10  30
Colville       56  36  59  41  66  44 /  70  30  10  50  30  70
Sandpoint      53  37  56  38  62  43 / 100  70  10  30  20  70
Kellogg        51  39  53  42  63  42 /  90  70  20  20  10  60
Moses Lake     65  40  59  45  63  48 /  50  10  10  40  20  30
Wenatchee      62  42  57  47  60  46 /  50  10  10  60  40  30
Omak           61  36  58  44  58  45 /  50  10  10  60  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 230547
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1047 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A very moist frontal boundary will produce heavy rain and high
elevation snow for the mountains and steady rain in the valleys
and basin tonight. Breezy and unsettled conditions will continue
through Thursday. A strong cold front will produce windy conditions
Saturday night into Sunday morning. The pattern will continue to
be active into early next week. This includes the potential for
widespread rain into early next week, as moisture associated with
former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific Northwest.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
The first round of precipitation is currently moving across extreme
eastern WA into north Idaho this evening. Regional radar mosaic
shows a broad band of steady precip moving north-northeast across
the region. It looks like all but the extreme southeast corner of
the forecast area will see some light rain from this feature. The
Lewis-Clark Valley and Camas Prairie may not get measurable precip
from this feature. PoPs and QPF were adjusted to account for a
quicker advancement of this warm frontal band. Some patchy fog was
added to the weather grids in response to reports of fog in the
Spokane and West Plains area. Webcams show that the problem area
could be the North Spokane area. Patchy fog was added to the
northeast valleys that are typically favorable to fog formation.
Winds were also bumped up across the Camas Prairie and into the
Lewiston area. The windy spots could see winds of 20 to 25 kts
with gusts to 40 kts. Solidly windy but still below advisory
criteria. The occluded front appears to be on track, just reaching
the Cascade crest as of 8pm. This feature has been dropping a
quick quarter inch or so as it moved inland across western WA. It
should pass through eastern WA by 12Z then across north ID by 18Z.
The entire forecast area should see a quick soaking as the front
passes through. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A trailing occluded front will sweep through the region
overnight with heavier rain along and immediately behind the
front. A moist boundary layer even after the FROPA will likely
promote continued MVFR (and possibly IFR) stratus ceilings through
20Z Thursday at the KGEG area TAF sites and KEAT. Gusty winds will
help to lift low stratus after 20Z Thursday. Scattered showers
will develop across the higher terrain surrounding the basin
during the afternoon hours. Isolated thunderstorms may develop
north of the KGEG-KCOE area and are not likely to affect any TAF
site. /EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        48  59  43  57  44  63 / 100  50  50  10  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  46  58  41  57  41  64 / 100  70  50  10  20  20
Pullman        48  59  45  59  47  69 /  90  80  50  10  40  10
Lewiston       53  63  48  64  46  72 /  40  60  50  20  40  10
Colville       48  57  41  58  41  60 / 100  60  50  10  50  30
Sandpoint      44  55  38  56  38  60 / 100 100  70  20  30  20
Kellogg        46  54  41  53  42  62 /  90  80  80  20  20  10
Moses Lake     50  64  43  61  45  63 /  90  20  10  10  40  20
Wenatchee      48  61  44  57  47  58 / 100  30  10  10  60  40
Omak           48  59  40  58  44  58 / 100  40  10  10  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 230443
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
940 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIRECT SHOWERS INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE
FLOW. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL REACH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH BLUSTERY WINDS DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER TROUGH IS JUST OFFSHORE...SENDING SHOWERS
INTO THE REGION. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVED THROUGH WESTERN WA THIS
EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY WINDS...OLM-BLI WAS
+4MB AT 9PM. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL REACH THE COAST AROUND 8AM
THU AND MOVE THROUGH THE INTERIOR OF WRN WA THRU MIDDAY. THE SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE THU NITE. TEMPORARY RIDGING MOVES OVER WRN WA FRIDAY
WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW FOR A DRY DAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
THRU THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NITE AND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
THROUGH WRN WA AND FILLS WINDS WILL BECOME BLUSTERY SAT NITE.

.LONG TERM...SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND SATURDAY NIGHTS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. BEYOND THAT TIME...MODELS ARE HAVING A
TOUGH TIME WITH THE DETAILS. THE ECMWF HAS A STORM TRACK TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGES HERE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE STORM TRACK ON THE GFS IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...STILL A WET ONE FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON BUT LESS WINDY. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. IN ANY CASE THE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH
RIVER IN MASON COUNTY. THE SKOKOMISH AT POTLATCH CRESTED AROUND 17.2
FEET AT NOON TODAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT
AND GRADUALLY RECEDE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. BUT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DRIVE ANY RIVERS ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT OVER THE CASCADES AT 04Z WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST. AIR MASS UNSTABLE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

CEILINGS IN THE 4000 TO 6000 FOOT RANGE LOWERING DOWN TO NEAR 2000
FEET WITH VISIBILITIES 3-5SM IN SHOWERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY EASING UP
OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASING AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

KSEA...CEILINGS NEAR 2000 FEET IN SHOWERS OTHERWISE CEILINGS IN THE
4000-6000 FOOT RANGE. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25
KNOTS UNTIL 06Z. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...COLD FRONT EAST OF THE WATERS THIS EVENING. PRESSURE RISES
BEHIND THE FRONT GIVING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLIES TO THE
INLAND WATERS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE INLAND WATERS ON THURSDAY
SHIFTING EAST OF THE CASCADES ON FRIDAY. A 990 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND MOVE INTO THE OREGON COASTAL
WATERS ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE
INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL BE CRUCIAL IN HOW MUCH WIND DEVELOPS OVER THE MARINE AREAS. AT
THIS POINT GALE FORCE WINDS OR HIGHER ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON
      COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR HAZARDOUS IN EFFECT
     FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM
     THURSDAY FOR THE GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT INLAND WATERS AND ADMIRALTY
     INLET.

&&

$$

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YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 230443
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
940 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIRECT SHOWERS INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE
FLOW. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL REACH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH BLUSTERY WINDS DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER TROUGH IS JUST OFFSHORE...SENDING SHOWERS
INTO THE REGION. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVED THROUGH WESTERN WA THIS
EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY WINDS...OLM-BLI WAS
+4MB AT 9PM. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL REACH THE COAST AROUND 8AM
THU AND MOVE THROUGH THE INTERIOR OF WRN WA THRU MIDDAY. THE SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE THU NITE. TEMPORARY RIDGING MOVES OVER WRN WA FRIDAY
WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW FOR A DRY DAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
THRU THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NITE AND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
THROUGH WRN WA AND FILLS WINDS WILL BECOME BLUSTERY SAT NITE.

.LONG TERM...SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND SATURDAY NIGHTS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. BEYOND THAT TIME...MODELS ARE HAVING A
TOUGH TIME WITH THE DETAILS. THE ECMWF HAS A STORM TRACK TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGES HERE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE STORM TRACK ON THE GFS IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...STILL A WET ONE FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON BUT LESS WINDY. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. IN ANY CASE THE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH
RIVER IN MASON COUNTY. THE SKOKOMISH AT POTLATCH CRESTED AROUND 17.2
FEET AT NOON TODAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT
AND GRADUALLY RECEDE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. BUT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DRIVE ANY RIVERS ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT OVER THE CASCADES AT 04Z WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST. AIR MASS UNSTABLE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

CEILINGS IN THE 4000 TO 6000 FOOT RANGE LOWERING DOWN TO NEAR 2000
FEET WITH VISIBILITIES 3-5SM IN SHOWERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY EASING UP
OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASING AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

KSEA...CEILINGS NEAR 2000 FEET IN SHOWERS OTHERWISE CEILINGS IN THE
4000-6000 FOOT RANGE. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25
KNOTS UNTIL 06Z. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...COLD FRONT EAST OF THE WATERS THIS EVENING. PRESSURE RISES
BEHIND THE FRONT GIVING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLIES TO THE
INLAND WATERS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE INLAND WATERS ON THURSDAY
SHIFTING EAST OF THE CASCADES ON FRIDAY. A 990 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND MOVE INTO THE OREGON COASTAL
WATERS ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE
INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL BE CRUCIAL IN HOW MUCH WIND DEVELOPS OVER THE MARINE AREAS. AT
THIS POINT GALE FORCE WINDS OR HIGHER ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON
      COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR HAZARDOUS IN EFFECT
     FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM
     THURSDAY FOR THE GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT INLAND WATERS AND ADMIRALTY
     INLET.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KPQR 230355
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
855 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WET STRONG COLD FRONT WAS FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE
WAVE HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR CUMULUS OFFSHORE THAT WILL SPREAD INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH. THE NEXT RATHER STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD
FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALSO MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
POSSIBLY WITH A BOUT OF FAIRLY STRONG WINDS. YET ANOTHER FRONT IS
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE WAS A
DECENT SURFACE WAVE THAT MOVED ALONG OUR SLOW MOVING FRONT THAT
PRODUCED SOME MODERATELY STRONG NORTH COASTAL WINDS. THE WAVE HAS
MOVED ONSHORE AND HELPED PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH AND INLAND INTO THE
CASCADES...AND WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY. AS
A RESULT...AREAS THAT HAD PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN TODAY HAS SEEN THE
RAINFALL BREAK UP AND EASE. SOME OF THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE
IMPRESSIVE...WITH 6 HOUR AMOUNTS OF 1.5 INCHES OR MORE EVEN IN THE
NORTH VALLEY. AREA RIVERS HAVE CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE...AND
BELIEVE THE THREAT OF RIVER FLOODING IS OVER. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
GOOD AREA OF COLD AIR CUMULUS AND SHOWERS OFF THE COAST THAT WILL
SPREAD ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND SOME DECENT BRIEF RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THEM...SO THERE IS A THREAT OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN ALL THE
MODELS SHOW A NEW LOW DEVELOPING AT THE BASE OF THE OFFSHORE LONG
WAVE TROUGH...THEN LIFTING NORTH TOWARD OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. WHILE
SOME DETAILS VARY AMONGST THE MODELS...THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR SOME MORE RAIN WHILE CAUSING EAST WINDS TO0 DEVELOP. THEN THE
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT LIKELY MOVES ON SATURDAY FOR MORE RAIN.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES ONSHORE AND INLAND SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE
COAST AND POSSIBLY INLAND AS WELL. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION EVERY 24 TO 48 HOURS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS DWINDLING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS
MAY DROP DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES WITH THE
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
SHOULD GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN LESS AGREEMENT
WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW WITH THIS STORM...BUT ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF RAIN. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH TJ.
&&

.AVIATION...THE STEADY RAINS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS
WITH SHOWERS NOW MOVING INTO THE AREA. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER
THE INTERIOR WITH SPLIT BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR ON THE COAST. SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED IFR CIGS AND VIS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD
TEMPORARILY REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON
COASTAL AREAS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL BUT THERE
SHOULD BE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. A MORE ORGANIZED
SHOWERS MAY BRING INCREASED MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON. /26
&&

.MARINE...THE LAST LOW THAT MODELS HANDLED SOMEWHAT POORLY MOVED
THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BRINGING
DECENT GALES THERE. WINDS ARE ON THE DECREASE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD
DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER MODELS
ARE SHOWING ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND
SHOULD BRING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS AS THERE IS STILL THE STRONG ZONAL JET IN ABOUT THE SAME
POSITION AND CONCERN IS FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT THAN WHAT MODELS ARE
DEPICTING RIGHT NOW. SEAS WILL IN GENERAL BE ON THE DECREASE AND
SHOULD BE SUBSIDING BELOW 10 FT LATER THURSDAY. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS
RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE WATERS AS SEAS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 10
FT.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THIS WEEKENDS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
CONTINUE TO VARY ON THE DETAILS...BUT GENERALLY AGREE A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AROUND 985MB...WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INSIDE 130 W
AND POSSIBLY MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN VANCOUVER ISLAND AND THE
NORTH OREGON COAST. THIS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PRODUCE GALE FORCE
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF
LOW END STORM FORCE GUSTS OF 50 KT. SEAS TO 20 FT SEEM MORE THAN
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY.

AFTER A BREAK LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS
SUGGEST ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST
NEXT TUESDAY. GALE FORCE TO STORM FORCE WINDS CERTAINLY APPEAR
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM AS WELL. /NEUMAN /26
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 PM PDT THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 230355
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
855 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WET STRONG COLD FRONT WAS FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE
WAVE HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR CUMULUS OFFSHORE THAT WILL SPREAD INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH. THE NEXT RATHER STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD
FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALSO MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
POSSIBLY WITH A BOUT OF FAIRLY STRONG WINDS. YET ANOTHER FRONT IS
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE WAS A
DECENT SURFACE WAVE THAT MOVED ALONG OUR SLOW MOVING FRONT THAT
PRODUCED SOME MODERATELY STRONG NORTH COASTAL WINDS. THE WAVE HAS
MOVED ONSHORE AND HELPED PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH AND INLAND INTO THE
CASCADES...AND WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY. AS
A RESULT...AREAS THAT HAD PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN TODAY HAS SEEN THE
RAINFALL BREAK UP AND EASE. SOME OF THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE
IMPRESSIVE...WITH 6 HOUR AMOUNTS OF 1.5 INCHES OR MORE EVEN IN THE
NORTH VALLEY. AREA RIVERS HAVE CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE...AND
BELIEVE THE THREAT OF RIVER FLOODING IS OVER. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
GOOD AREA OF COLD AIR CUMULUS AND SHOWERS OFF THE COAST THAT WILL
SPREAD ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND SOME DECENT BRIEF RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THEM...SO THERE IS A THREAT OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN ALL THE
MODELS SHOW A NEW LOW DEVELOPING AT THE BASE OF THE OFFSHORE LONG
WAVE TROUGH...THEN LIFTING NORTH TOWARD OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. WHILE
SOME DETAILS VARY AMONGST THE MODELS...THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR SOME MORE RAIN WHILE CAUSING EAST WINDS TO0 DEVELOP. THEN THE
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT LIKELY MOVES ON SATURDAY FOR MORE RAIN.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES ONSHORE AND INLAND SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE
COAST AND POSSIBLY INLAND AS WELL. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION EVERY 24 TO 48 HOURS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS DWINDLING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS
MAY DROP DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES WITH THE
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
SHOULD GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN LESS AGREEMENT
WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW WITH THIS STORM...BUT ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF RAIN. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH TJ.
&&

.AVIATION...THE STEADY RAINS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS
WITH SHOWERS NOW MOVING INTO THE AREA. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER
THE INTERIOR WITH SPLIT BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR ON THE COAST. SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED IFR CIGS AND VIS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD
TEMPORARILY REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON
COASTAL AREAS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL BUT THERE
SHOULD BE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. A MORE ORGANIZED
SHOWERS MAY BRING INCREASED MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON. /26
&&

.MARINE...THE LAST LOW THAT MODELS HANDLED SOMEWHAT POORLY MOVED
THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BRINGING
DECENT GALES THERE. WINDS ARE ON THE DECREASE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD
DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER MODELS
ARE SHOWING ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND
SHOULD BRING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS AS THERE IS STILL THE STRONG ZONAL JET IN ABOUT THE SAME
POSITION AND CONCERN IS FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT THAN WHAT MODELS ARE
DEPICTING RIGHT NOW. SEAS WILL IN GENERAL BE ON THE DECREASE AND
SHOULD BE SUBSIDING BELOW 10 FT LATER THURSDAY. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS
RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE WATERS AS SEAS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 10
FT.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THIS WEEKENDS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
CONTINUE TO VARY ON THE DETAILS...BUT GENERALLY AGREE A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AROUND 985MB...WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INSIDE 130 W
AND POSSIBLY MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN VANCOUVER ISLAND AND THE
NORTH OREGON COAST. THIS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PRODUCE GALE FORCE
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF
LOW END STORM FORCE GUSTS OF 50 KT. SEAS TO 20 FT SEEM MORE THAN
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY.

AFTER A BREAK LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS
SUGGEST ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST
NEXT TUESDAY. GALE FORCE TO STORM FORCE WINDS CERTAINLY APPEAR
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM AS WELL. /NEUMAN /26
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 PM PDT THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 230337
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
837 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A very moist frontal boundary will produce heavy rain and high
elevation snow for the mountains and steady rain in the valleys
and basin tonight. Breezy and unsettled conditions will continue
through Thursday. A strong cold front will produce windy conditions
Saturday night into Sunday morning. The pattern will continue to
be active into early next week. This includes the potential for
widespread rain into early next week, as moisture associated with
former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific Northwest.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
The first round of precipitation is currently moving across extreme
eastern WA into north Idaho this evening. Regional radar mosaic
shows a broad band of steady precip moving north-northeast across
the region. It looks like all but the extreme southeast corner of
the forecast area will see some light rain from this feature. The
Lewis-Clark Valley and Camas Prairie may not get measurable precip
from this feature. PoPs and QPF were adjusted to account for a
quicker advancement of this warm frontal band. Some patchy fog was
added to the weather grids in response to reports of fog in the
Spokane and West Plains area. Webcams show that the problem area
could be the North Spokane area. Patchy fog was added to the
northeast valleys that are typically favorable to fog formation.
Winds were also bumped up across the Camas Prairie and into the
Lewiston area. The windy spots could see winds of 20 to 25 kts
with gusts to 40 kts. Solidly windy but still below advisory
criteria. The occluded front appears to be on track, just reaching
the Cascade crest as of 8pm. This feature has been dropping a
quick quarter inch or so as it moved inland across western WA. It
should pass through eastern WA by 12Z then across north ID by 18Z.
The entire forecast area should see a quick soaking as the front
passes through. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A very moist stream of Pacific moisture will enhance
over a slow moving developing warm front draped west to east
across the region today with gradually deteriorating conditions at
all TAF sites except KPUW and KLWS...where dry downslope winds
will promote increasing clouds but generally dry conditions today.
MVFR ceilings likely in RA at KEAT and possibly KMWH tonight. At
the KGEG area TAF sites mostly VFR showers are expected with
steady stratiform rain and occasional MVFR ceilings developing
after 04Z. Tonight a trailing occluding front will sweep through
the region with heavier rain along and immediately behind the
front. A moist boundary layer even after the FROPA will likely
promote continued MVFR (and possibly IFR) stratus ceilings
through 20Z Thursday at the KGEG area TAF sites and KEAT. Gusty
winds will help to lift low stratus after 20Z Thursday. /EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        48  59  43  57  44  63 / 100  50  50  10  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  46  58  41  57  41  64 / 100  70  50  10  20  20
Pullman        48  59  45  59  47  69 /  90  80  50  10  40  10
Lewiston       53  63  48  64  46  72 /  40  60  50  20  40  10
Colville       48  57  41  58  41  60 / 100  60  50  10  50  30
Sandpoint      44  55  38  56  38  60 / 100 100  70  20  30  20
Kellogg        46  54  41  53  42  62 /  90  80  80  20  20  10
Moses Lake     50  64  43  61  45  63 /  90  20  10  10  40  20
Wenatchee      48  61  44  57  47  58 / 100  30  10  10  60  40
Omak           48  59  40  58  44  58 / 100  40  10  10  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 230337
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
837 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A very moist frontal boundary will produce heavy rain and high
elevation snow for the mountains and steady rain in the valleys
and basin tonight. Breezy and unsettled conditions will continue
through Thursday. A strong cold front will produce windy conditions
Saturday night into Sunday morning. The pattern will continue to
be active into early next week. This includes the potential for
widespread rain into early next week, as moisture associated with
former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific Northwest.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
The first round of precipitation is currently moving across extreme
eastern WA into north Idaho this evening. Regional radar mosaic
shows a broad band of steady precip moving north-northeast across
the region. It looks like all but the extreme southeast corner of
the forecast area will see some light rain from this feature. The
Lewis-Clark Valley and Camas Prairie may not get measurable precip
from this feature. PoPs and QPF were adjusted to account for a
quicker advancement of this warm frontal band. Some patchy fog was
added to the weather grids in response to reports of fog in the
Spokane and West Plains area. Webcams show that the problem area
could be the North Spokane area. Patchy fog was added to the
northeast valleys that are typically favorable to fog formation.
Winds were also bumped up across the Camas Prairie and into the
Lewiston area. The windy spots could see winds of 20 to 25 kts
with gusts to 40 kts. Solidly windy but still below advisory
criteria. The occluded front appears to be on track, just reaching
the Cascade crest as of 8pm. This feature has been dropping a
quick quarter inch or so as it moved inland across western WA. It
should pass through eastern WA by 12Z then across north ID by 18Z.
The entire forecast area should see a quick soaking as the front
passes through. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A very moist stream of Pacific moisture will enhance
over a slow moving developing warm front draped west to east
across the region today with gradually deteriorating conditions at
all TAF sites except KPUW and KLWS...where dry downslope winds
will promote increasing clouds but generally dry conditions today.
MVFR ceilings likely in RA at KEAT and possibly KMWH tonight. At
the KGEG area TAF sites mostly VFR showers are expected with
steady stratiform rain and occasional MVFR ceilings developing
after 04Z. Tonight a trailing occluding front will sweep through
the region with heavier rain along and immediately behind the
front. A moist boundary layer even after the FROPA will likely
promote continued MVFR (and possibly IFR) stratus ceilings
through 20Z Thursday at the KGEG area TAF sites and KEAT. Gusty
winds will help to lift low stratus after 20Z Thursday. /EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        48  59  43  57  44  63 / 100  50  50  10  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  46  58  41  57  41  64 / 100  70  50  10  20  20
Pullman        48  59  45  59  47  69 /  90  80  50  10  40  10
Lewiston       53  63  48  64  46  72 /  40  60  50  20  40  10
Colville       48  57  41  58  41  60 / 100  60  50  10  50  30
Sandpoint      44  55  38  56  38  60 / 100 100  70  20  30  20
Kellogg        46  54  41  53  42  62 /  90  80  80  20  20  10
Moses Lake     50  64  43  61  45  63 /  90  20  10  10  40  20
Wenatchee      48  61  44  57  47  58 / 100  30  10  10  60  40
Omak           48  59  40  58  44  58 / 100  40  10  10  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 222344
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
444 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A very moist frontal boundary will produce heavy rain and high
elevation snow for the mountains and steady rain in the valleys
and basin tonight. Breezy and unsettled conditions will continue
through Thursday. A strong cold front will produce windy conditions
Saturday night into Sunday morning. The pattern will continue to
be active into early next week. This includes the potential for
widespread rain into early next week, as moisture associated with
former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday...Pacific satellite loop displays a
baroclinic leaf cloud structure developing over western Washington
this afternoon...indicative of a frontal couplet featuring a warm
front running west to east over eastern Washington followed by a
cold occluded front running southwest to northeast just off the
Pacific Coast. This frontal complex is being fueled by a deep and
well directed fetch of sub-tropical moisture. The passage of this
sopping wet frontal complex will drive the weather for the next 24
to 36 hours. The entire forecast area is or soon will be in the
thick of this wet storm...with surface observation already
recording a general 1/2 to 1 inch of rain and high mountain snow
WE over the Cascades in the last 12 hours...with even the
normally dry deep basin locations receiving from a few hundredths
to a tenth of and inch already this afternoon. The surface
pressure gradient is producing a downslope southeast wind field
over the Palouse and points south which is retarding the onset of
precipitation.

Two regimes or rounds will occur over the next 24 hours. The
first round will occur this evening over the west and through
tonight over the east and will be characterized by steady light
to moderate stratiform rain enhancing isentropically over the slow
moving or nearly stationary warm front. Low level upslope flow
into the Cascades will assure continued precipitation even over
the normally dry deep basin. Snow levels will remain around 6000
feet in this warm advective scenario. The currently dry Palouse
and LC valley will succumb to the rain later tonight as the fetch
becomes better directed and in particular as the robust lift
along the occlusion moves through towards dawn.

The arrival of the occluded front will mark the beginning of the
second round. Passing trough the Cascades around midnight and into
the Idaho Panhandle around dawn this front will bring an area of
dense and occasionally heavy showers just ahead of it...followed
by a quick shut off of significant precipitation but a quick
increase in winds especially over the exposed terrain of the
basin. A moist orographic regime will dominate with the usual rain
shadow off the Cascades and continued orographic showers feeding
into the northeast Washington and Idaho Panhandle mountains.

Winds on Thursday look to be solidly breezy with gust potential up
to 30-35 mph or so on exposed terrain but the models are similar
in depicting a gradient that will not justify any wind highlights
at this time. These winds will help keep temperatures on the warm
side of normal in a well mixed and adiabatically dominated surface
layer.

Hydrology Issues...rainfall totals from this storm will range
from over 2 inches near the Cascade Crest to 1 to 2 inches in the
mountains north and east of the basin. Lowland locations will
range from 1/4 to 1/2 inch in the basin to near an inch or so in
the valleys branching off the basin. River levels appear to be low
enough to be able to handle this runoff with no trouble but
smaller streams and tributaries draining the mountains will likely
see significant rises but probably no small stream flooding. The
wild card issue is how the recent burn scars in the Cascades will
handle this soaking rain. Rain rates will not be sufficient to
trigger classic flash floods but as the soil becomes saturated
there is a possibility of denuded slopes becoming unstable and
producing debris flows. These debris flows in gullies and stream
beds could also produce debris dams in the channels and lead to a
higher threat of dambreak flooding or "Ice Jam" type upstream
flooding. There is a great deal of uncertainty and little
experience/case history with these possibilities and these areas
will need to be monitored closely over the next 24 hours. /Fugazzi

Thursday night through Friday: Moist and unstable upslope flow
will produce lingering showers across the ID Panhandle. These
showers will be most numerous Thursday evening and taper off
through Friday. All of the rain from the current weather system
impacting the region will result in substantial boundary layer
moisture. This will increase the threat for fog overnight Thursday
into Friday morning as mid level clouds clear west to east across
eastern WA. Friday will be fairly benign with the region in
between weather systems. High temperatures will be near to or
slightly above normal in the 50s to low 60s.

Friday night through Saturday night: A vigorous shortwave trough
of lower pressure will pivot around the upper level low pressure
system in the Gulf of Alaska on Friday. In addition, a moderate to
strong jet streak will be draped across the state of WA. A strong
vorticity maximum at the base of the shortwave trough and favorable
jet dynamics for large scale lift in the right entrance region of
the jet streak will result in rapid surface cyclogenesis along
130W off the coast of northern CA and southern OR. Models show
good agreement with this surface low tracking northeast into
northwest WA on Saturday. The GFS is on the faster side of the
medium range model guidance available, but good agreement overall.

The warm front is progged to push north across the region Friday
night. This will result in increased low level flow out of the
east. The front itself does not appear to be particularly strong
or moist. Easterly flow down the east slopes of the ID Panhandle
Mountains will result in some downward motions across these areas
out into the eastern basin. This will counteract the lift along
the warm front somewhat. Best chances for precip will likely be
across the western portion of the forecast area, and more so in
the East Slopes of the Northern Cascades where easterly flow will
create some orographic enhancement. Temperatures will likely be
fairly mild across the eastern portion of the forecast area
behind the warm front on Saturday.

Cold front passage with this system is expected Saturday night.
This will result in increasing chances for precipitation from west
to east along the front. Precipitation with this system is not
expected to be much of a concern with light to moderate amounts
anticipated. The greater concern with the front will be the
winds. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty still at this
time, but the surface low will be pushing inland across northwest WA
near its peak intensity. The 12Z GFS and NAM model guidance has
come in with an 850 mb jet of around 50-55 kt winds. There will be
some decent cold air advection with the front, so I anticipate
these winds will have a chance to mix down to the surface even
though it will push across after sunset. These solutions are much
stronger than previous runs, so confidence is still only moderate
at this time. A wind highlight may be needed if these stronger
solutions continue as the event approaches. /SVH

Sunday through Wednesday: Models continue to depict an active
pattern, with temperature held closer to seasonal averages;
however agreement over the details decreases in the new work week.

Sunday and Sunday night a surface low over southwest Canada
tracks east. A trough trailing it sags across northeast WA and
north ID, weakening and pulling away by Monday morning. In tandem,
the supporting upper trough migrates from the Pacific NW to the
northern High Plains, with the steering flow switching from
southwest to west-northwest. Moisture and low-grade instability
wrapped up in these features will continue providing shower chances
across much of the Inland NW. Yet the best chances will be near
the Cascade crest and the mountains of northeast WA and ID; the
lowest chances will be in the lee of the Cascades and L-C Valley.

From Sunday night into Monday the threat will retreat to just the
mountain areas and if anything falls it looks light. There will
be a stratus and patchy fog threat over the eastern Columbia Basin
into the eastern mountain valleys in the night and morning hours
too, given the lower level southwest flow and moisture provided
from recent rains.

From Monday night through Tuesday night the next system comes in,
ostensibly with another modest moisture fetch which includes the
remains former tropical system Ana. However there is wide
variation amongst models over the precise track and timing of the
system. Some runs bring a defined low toward the central BC coast
and others bring a smaller scale low toward the northern Oregon
coast. The further south solutions offer higher precipitation
amounts for the Inland NW and the further north solution shows
more diffuse, lighter precipitation. These details will continue
to be monitored and fine-tuned as we get more information. Right
now look for thickening clouds on Monday night with the main rain
chances increasing over the Cascades. The precipitation chances
increase across the rest of the area going into Tuesday and
Tuesday night as the system moves inland. By Wednesday models
depict a shortwave ridge builds in, leading to a relative decrease
in the precipitation threat and some stratus/patchy fog threat
again over the eastern third of WA and north ID, especially in the
sheltered valleys. Rain chances will begin to increase from the
west again late as that next system approaches. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A very moist stream of Pacific moisture will enhance
over a slow moving developing warm front draped west to east
across the region today with gradually deteriorating conditions at
all TAF sites except KPUW and KLWS...where dry downslope winds
will promote increasing clouds but generally dry conditions today.
MVFR ceilings likely in RA at KEAT and possibly KMWH tonight. At
the KGEG area TAF sites mostly VFR showers are expected with
steady stratiform rain and occasional MVFR ceilings developing
after 04Z. Tonight a trailing occluding front will sweep through
the region with heavier rain along and immediately behind the
front. A moist boundary layer even after the FROPA will likely
promote continued MVFR (and possibly IFR) stratus ceilings
through 20Z Thursday at the KGEG area TAF sites and KEAT. Gusty
winds will help to lift low stratus after 20Z Thursday. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        48  59  43  57  44  63 / 100  50  50  10  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  46  58  41  57  41  64 / 100  70  50  20  20  20
Pullman        48  59  45  59  47  69 /  90  80  50  10  40  10
Lewiston       53  63  48  64  46  72 /  40  60  50  20  40  10
Colville       48  57  41  58  41  60 / 100  60  50  10  50  30
Sandpoint      45  55  38  56  38  60 / 100 100  70  20  30  20
Kellogg        46  54  41  53  42  62 /  90  80  80  30  20  10
Moses Lake     50  64  43  61  45  63 /  90  20  10  10  40  20
Wenatchee      49  61  44  57  47  58 / 100  30  10  10  60  40
Omak           48  59  40  58  44  58 / 100  40  10  10  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 222252 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
352 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

CORRECTED MINOR TYPO IN THE SECOND PARAGRAPH OF THE MARINE SEGMENT.

.SYNOPSIS...DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND AN UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE AIR MASS IS UNSTABLE...SO THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE COAST TONIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE IT WILL REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...A BRIEF AND WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED
WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE DRIER WEATHER. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADARS SHOW THE FRONT THAT MOVED
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IS NOW NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE
CASCADES INTO NORTHWESTERN OREGON. A BROAD AND RATHER DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED AROUND 145W LONGITUDE. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ARE ROTATING AROUND THIS TROUGH AND ARE RIDING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION TODAY AS IT MOVED NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER WAVE NOW OVER THE OREGON
OFFSHORE WATERS SHIFTING NE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE AXIS OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE SHIFTED ABOUT 50 TO
100 MILES FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF WHERE THE RAIN WAS SEEN
TODAY. YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE...THIS ONE NOW SEEN AS WHAT APPEARS
TO BE A DEVELOPING INSTANT OCCLUSION NORTH OF THE FRONT NEAR
135W...APPEARS THAT IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT WAS SEEN EARLIER TODAY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS HAS MAINLY MOVED INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND...BUT SOME ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN STILL BE SEEN OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE
SEEN ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE WESTERN OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS. THE AIR
MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE UNSTABLE OVER THE INTERIOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE INSTANT OCCLUSION MOVES NE ACROSS THE
AREA. LIFTED INDEX VALUES FALL TO AROUND -2.1 AND CAPES RISE TO
ABOUT 500 J/KG IN THE SEATTLE AREA 21Z THU PER THE NAM12 AND THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE. SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON THU.

SHOWERS DIMINISH THU NIGHT AND COME TO AN END FRI MORNING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AS A DEEP LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHERN OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS LOW APPEARS TO BE
DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM DROPPING SE FROM THE BERING SEA
AS IT PHASES SOMEWHAT WITH THE REMAINS OF ANA NW OF HAWAII. THE
LATEST NAM12 AND GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW THE LOW REACHING ITS MAXIMUM
DEPTH AT AROUND 985 MB OFF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST WHILE THE
CANADIAN AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE 5-10 MB DEEPER. OFFSHORE FLOW AND
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT MAY BRING A RATHER DRY PERIOD...ALBEIT
CLOUDY...TO THE AREA FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING.

THE LOW QUICKLY BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED IN ALL OF THE MODELS OFF
THE OREGON COAST...THEN IT MATURES...MOVES NORTHEAST...AND GRADUALLY
DECAYS AS IT MOVES NE ACROSS OUR AREA SAT EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE
DEPTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW...IT MAY GET WINDY OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT WITH THE
LOW DECAYING AND WIND FIELD EXPANDING...EXPECT THE THREAT OF HIGH
WIND IN THE FORECAST AREA TO BE BELOW 25 PERCENT. SOME MODEL
SOLUTIONS...LIKE THE 12Z CANADIAN SOLUTION...KEEP THE TRACK OF THE
LOW SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NOT UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE
GENERAL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN BEING SEEN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. OF LATE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND IT WILL
REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND SATURDAY NIGHTS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. BEYOND THAT TIME...MODELS ARE HAVING A
TOUGH TIME WITH THE DETAILS. THE ECMWF HAS A STORM TRACK TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGES HERE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE STORM TRACK ON THE GFS IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...STILL A WET ONE FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON BUT LESS WINDY. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. IN ANY CASE THE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH
RIVER IN MASON COUNTY. THE SKOKOMISH AT POTLATCH CRESTED AROUND 17.2
FEET AT NOON TODAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT
AND GRADUALLY RECEDE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. BUT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DRIVE ANY RIVERS ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...A SLOW-MOVING CDFNT OVER THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED TO BE
E OF THE CASCADES BY 0600 UTC THU. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONT OVER THE REGION THRU
TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN SLY.

EXPECT AREAS OF CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE 1-3K FT AND 3-5SM RANGE...
RESPECTIVELY...THRU TONIGHT. HOWEVER HEAVY PRECIP WILL RESULT IN
OCNL IFR CIGS/VSBYS.

KSEA...CIGS HAVE LIFTED INTO THE VFR CATEGORY BUT OCNLY CIGS IN THE
2-3K FT RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED THRU PART OF TONIGHT. CIGS NEAR 2K FT
MAY BECOME PREDOMINANT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THU.

&&

.MARINE...
A 1001 MB LOW DEVELOPED OVER THE OREGON COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS HAS SLOWED DOWN THE COLD FRONT OVER THE PUGET
SOUND REGION. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE E OF THE CASCADES BY LATE
THIS EVENING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A BURST OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 25 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT TO 60 NM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NE.

BEYOND THIS AFTERNOON...NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS WERE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK...TIMING...AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED THE END OF THIS WEEK. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE ANYWHERE FROM HIGH END GALE OR
LOW END STORM FORCE WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA TO INCONSEQUENTIAL
WIND SPEEDS. THE FORECAST REFLECTS THE CONSENSUS. THUS ANTICIPATE
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON
      COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR HAZARDOUS IN EFFECT FOR
      THE COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
      FUCA.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM
      THURSDAY FOR THE GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 222252 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
352 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

CORRECTED MINOR TYPO IN THE SECOND PARAGRAPH OF THE MARINE SEGMENT.

.SYNOPSIS...DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND AN UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE AIR MASS IS UNSTABLE...SO THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE COAST TONIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE IT WILL REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...A BRIEF AND WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED
WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE DRIER WEATHER. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADARS SHOW THE FRONT THAT MOVED
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IS NOW NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE
CASCADES INTO NORTHWESTERN OREGON. A BROAD AND RATHER DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED AROUND 145W LONGITUDE. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ARE ROTATING AROUND THIS TROUGH AND ARE RIDING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION TODAY AS IT MOVED NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER WAVE NOW OVER THE OREGON
OFFSHORE WATERS SHIFTING NE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE AXIS OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE SHIFTED ABOUT 50 TO
100 MILES FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF WHERE THE RAIN WAS SEEN
TODAY. YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE...THIS ONE NOW SEEN AS WHAT APPEARS
TO BE A DEVELOPING INSTANT OCCLUSION NORTH OF THE FRONT NEAR
135W...APPEARS THAT IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT WAS SEEN EARLIER TODAY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS HAS MAINLY MOVED INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND...BUT SOME ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN STILL BE SEEN OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE
SEEN ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE WESTERN OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS. THE AIR
MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE UNSTABLE OVER THE INTERIOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE INSTANT OCCLUSION MOVES NE ACROSS THE
AREA. LIFTED INDEX VALUES FALL TO AROUND -2.1 AND CAPES RISE TO
ABOUT 500 J/KG IN THE SEATTLE AREA 21Z THU PER THE NAM12 AND THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE. SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON THU.

SHOWERS DIMINISH THU NIGHT AND COME TO AN END FRI MORNING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AS A DEEP LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHERN OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS LOW APPEARS TO BE
DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM DROPPING SE FROM THE BERING SEA
AS IT PHASES SOMEWHAT WITH THE REMAINS OF ANA NW OF HAWAII. THE
LATEST NAM12 AND GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW THE LOW REACHING ITS MAXIMUM
DEPTH AT AROUND 985 MB OFF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST WHILE THE
CANADIAN AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE 5-10 MB DEEPER. OFFSHORE FLOW AND
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT MAY BRING A RATHER DRY PERIOD...ALBEIT
CLOUDY...TO THE AREA FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING.

THE LOW QUICKLY BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED IN ALL OF THE MODELS OFF
THE OREGON COAST...THEN IT MATURES...MOVES NORTHEAST...AND GRADUALLY
DECAYS AS IT MOVES NE ACROSS OUR AREA SAT EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE
DEPTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW...IT MAY GET WINDY OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT WITH THE
LOW DECAYING AND WIND FIELD EXPANDING...EXPECT THE THREAT OF HIGH
WIND IN THE FORECAST AREA TO BE BELOW 25 PERCENT. SOME MODEL
SOLUTIONS...LIKE THE 12Z CANADIAN SOLUTION...KEEP THE TRACK OF THE
LOW SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NOT UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE
GENERAL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN BEING SEEN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. OF LATE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND IT WILL
REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND SATURDAY NIGHTS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. BEYOND THAT TIME...MODELS ARE HAVING A
TOUGH TIME WITH THE DETAILS. THE ECMWF HAS A STORM TRACK TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGES HERE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE STORM TRACK ON THE GFS IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...STILL A WET ONE FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON BUT LESS WINDY. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. IN ANY CASE THE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH
RIVER IN MASON COUNTY. THE SKOKOMISH AT POTLATCH CRESTED AROUND 17.2
FEET AT NOON TODAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT
AND GRADUALLY RECEDE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. BUT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DRIVE ANY RIVERS ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...A SLOW-MOVING CDFNT OVER THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED TO BE
E OF THE CASCADES BY 0600 UTC THU. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONT OVER THE REGION THRU
TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN SLY.

EXPECT AREAS OF CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE 1-3K FT AND 3-5SM RANGE...
RESPECTIVELY...THRU TONIGHT. HOWEVER HEAVY PRECIP WILL RESULT IN
OCNL IFR CIGS/VSBYS.

KSEA...CIGS HAVE LIFTED INTO THE VFR CATEGORY BUT OCNLY CIGS IN THE
2-3K FT RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED THRU PART OF TONIGHT. CIGS NEAR 2K FT
MAY BECOME PREDOMINANT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THU.

&&

.MARINE...
A 1001 MB LOW DEVELOPED OVER THE OREGON COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS HAS SLOWED DOWN THE COLD FRONT OVER THE PUGET
SOUND REGION. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE E OF THE CASCADES BY LATE
THIS EVENING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A BURST OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 25 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT TO 60 NM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NE.

BEYOND THIS AFTERNOON...NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS WERE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK...TIMING...AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED THE END OF THIS WEEK. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE ANYWHERE FROM HIGH END GALE OR
LOW END STORM FORCE WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA TO INCONSEQUENTIAL
WIND SPEEDS. THE FORECAST REFLECTS THE CONSENSUS. THUS ANTICIPATE
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON
      COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR HAZARDOUS IN EFFECT FOR
      THE COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
      FUCA.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM
      THURSDAY FOR THE GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 222233
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
333 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND AN UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE AIR MASS IS UNSTABLE...SO THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE COAST TONIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE IT WILL REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...A BRIEF AND WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED
WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE DRIER WEATHER. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADARS SHOW THE FRONT THAT MOVED
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IS NOW NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE
CASCADES INTO NORTHWESTERN OREGON. A BROAD AND RATHER DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED AROUND 145W LONGITUDE. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ARE ROTATING AROUND THIS TROUGH AND ARE RIDING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION TODAY AS IT MOVED NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER WAVE NOW OVER THE OREGON
OFFSHORE WATERS SHIFTING NE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE AXIS OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE SHIFTED ABOUT 50 TO
100 MILES FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF WHERE THE RAIN WAS SEEN
TODAY. YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE...THIS ONE NOW SEEN AS WHAT APPEARS
TO BE A DEVELOPING INSTANT OCCLUSION NORTH OF THE FRONT NEAR
135W...APPEARS THAT IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT WAS SEEN EARLIER TODAY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS HAS MAINLY MOVED INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND...BUT SOME ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN STILL BE SEEN OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE
SEEN ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE WESTERN OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS. THE AIR
MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE UNSTABLE OVER THE INTERIOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE INSTANT OCCLUSION MOVES NE ACROSS THE
AREA. LIFTED INDEX VALUES FALL TO AROUND -2.1 AND CAPES RISE TO
ABOUT 500 J/KG IN THE SEATTLE AREA 21Z THU PER THE NAM12 AND THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE. SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON THU.

SHOWERS DIMINISH THU NIGHT AND COME TO AN END FRI MORNING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AS A DEEP LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHERN OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS LOW APPEARS TO BE
DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM DROPPING SE FROM THE BERING SEA
AS IT PHASES SOMEWHAT WITH THE REMAINS OF ANA NW OF HAWAII. THE
LATEST NAM12 AND GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW THE LOW REACHING ITS MAXIMUM
DEPTH AT AROUND 985 MB OFF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST WHILE THE
CANADIAN AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE 5-10 MB DEEPER. OFFSHORE FLOW AND
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT MAY BRING A RATHER DRY PERIOD...ALBEIT
CLOUDY...TO THE AREA FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING.

THE LOW QUICKLY BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED IN ALL OF THE MODELS OFF
THE OREGON COAST...THEN IT MATURES...MOVES NORTHEAST...AND GRADUALLY
DECAYS AS IT MOVES NE ACROSS OUR AREA SAT EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE
DEPTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW...IT MAY GET WINDY OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT WITH THE
LOW DECAYING AND WIND FIELD EXPANDING...EXPECT THE THREAT OF HIGH
WIND IN THE FORECAST AREA TO BE BELOW 25 PERCENT. SOME MODEL
SOLUTIONS...LIKE THE 12Z CANADIAN SOLUTION...KEEP THE TRACK OF THE
LOW SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NOT UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE
GENERAL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN BEING SEEN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. OF LATE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND IT WILL
REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND SATURDAY NIGHTS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. BEYOND THAT TIME...MODELS ARE HAVING A
TOUGH TIME WITH THE DETAILS. THE ECMWF HAS A STORM TRACK TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGES HERE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE STORM TRACK ON THE GFS IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...STILL A WET ONE FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON BUT LESS WINDY. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. IN ANY CASE THE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH
RIVER IN MASON COUNTY. THE SKOKOMISH AT POTLATCH CRESTED AROUND 17.2
FEET AT NOON TODAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT
AND GRADUALLY RECEDE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. BUT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DRIVE ANY RIVERS ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...A SLOW-MOVING CDFNT OVER THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED TO BE
E OF THE CASCADES BY 0600 UTC THU. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONT OVER THE REGION THRU
TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN SLY.

EXPECT AREAS OF CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE 1-3K FT AND 3-5SM RANGE...
RESPECTIVELY...THRU TONIGHT. HOWEVER HEAVY PRECIP WILL RESULT IN
OCNL IFR CIGS/VSBYS.

KSEA...CIGS HAVE LIFTED INTO THE VFR CATEGORY BUT OCNLY CIGS IN THE
2-3K FT RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED THRU PART OF TONIGHT. CIGS NEAR 2K FT
MAY BECOME PREDOMINANT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THU.

&&

.MARINE...
A 1001 MB LOW DEVELOPED OVER THE OREGON COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS HAS SLOWED DOWN THE COLD FRONT OVER THE PUGET
SOUND REGION. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE E OF THE CASCADES BY LATE
THIS EVENING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A BURST OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 25 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT TO 60 NM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NE.

BEYOND THIS AFTERNOON...NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS WERE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK...TIMING...AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED THE END OF THIS WEEK. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE ANYWHERE FROM HIGH END GALE OR
LOW END STORM FORCE WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA OR INCONSEQUENTIAL
WIND SPEEDS. THE FORECAST REFLECTS THE CONSENSUS. THUS ANTICIPATE
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON
      COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR HAZARDOUS IN EFFECT FOR
      THE COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
      FUCA.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM
      THURSDAY FOR THE GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KPQR 222225 CCB
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
307 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS BRINGING HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...MOVING
INTO THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PLENTY OF POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE NORTH COAST. ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY STRONG SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE RAIN AND WIND TO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. YET ANOTHER FRONT IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A LOOK AT THE
LATEST DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WIDE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. AMSU SATELLITE DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE SHOWING AROUND 1.25 INCHES FEEDING INTO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE RAIN BAND HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY...AS A DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LED TO
A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF WHICH EFFECTIVELY STALLED THE FRONT.
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE NEAR
43N 130W AT CURRENT. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITATION TOTALS SO FAR
ARE IN THE S WA AND N OR COAST RANGE AND THE S WA CASCADES...WHERE
GENERALLY 1.5 TO 3 INCHES HAVE FALLEN SO FAR. THE FOCUS OF THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL OR COAST
RANGE AND N WILLAMETTE VALLEY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

EXPECT THE HEAVY RAIN TO PUSH VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS DO NOT INDICATE ANY RIVER
FLOODING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE COASTAL
RIVERS DRAINING THE COAST RANGE ARE SHOWING SHARP RISES THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN STREET FLOODING
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL
INTO THIS EVENING. THERE ARE ALSO PLENTY OF LEAVES AROUND...SO
CLOGGED STORM DRAINS COULD BE A CONCERN. THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO QUIET
DOWN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE STEADIER RAIN MOVES INTO
THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES. HOWEVER...EXPECT PLENTY OF POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THU. A BROAD CLOSED LOW
OFF OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL SPIN A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
TOWARD THE PAC NW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO
ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MAY EVEN BRING A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS
TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS BUILD UPSTREAM OF RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES. WARMER
AIR ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...MODEL
AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS IN AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION IS BEING MODELED FOR MOST OF THE
REGION BEHIND THE WARM FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. CONFIDENCE IS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE THAT THE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN
RAPIDLY OFFSHORE LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT...THEN PUSH ONSHORE ALONG
THE WA COAST LATE SAT. IF THE LOW TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE OREGON
COAST...LIKE THE GFS 12Z IS INDICATING...THERE COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR
VERY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. HOWEVER...THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF MODEL SPREAD IN THE EXACT TIMING AND TRAJECTORY OF THE
LOW...WHICH WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON HOW THIS SYSTEM
IMPACTS OUR FCST AREA.AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER WET
AND WINDY PERIOD IS LIKELY SAT...BUT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH FRONTAL
SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EVERY 24 TO 48 HOURS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS DWINDLING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES
WITH THE SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM SHOULD GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN LESS
AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW WITH THIS
STORM...BUT ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF RAIN. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER FRONT IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY
ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH TJ.
&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF IFR...MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE
LOWER CEILINGS. AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE
SHOWERY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW
SUIT. ANOTHER DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD TEMPORARILY
REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS INTO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY MORNING
INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND
TOWARDS A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
CONDITIONS LIKELY TURN VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS AND BASED ON WEATHER STATIONS AT NEWPORT AND
FLORENCE...IT APPEARS TO BE EXITING THE WATERS. WILL MONITOR
TRENDS...BUT THE GALE WARNING FOR THE INNER CENTRAL OREGON WATERS
APPEARS ABOUT OVER DESPITE SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTING OTHERWISE.
WILL LET EVENING SHIFT TAKE IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS BEFORE CANCELING
THE GALE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON INNER WATERS.

FURTHER NORTH...A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH OR WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN WATERS. IT HAS DEEPENED MORE THAN
ANTICIPATED AND JUST STARTED PRODUCING LOW END GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
OF 35 KT AT BUOY 29. IF WINDS HAVE NOT PEAKED ALREADY AT BUOY
29...SUSPECT THEY WILL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BEFORE SPREADING
INTO THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS AROUND THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER. AS A RESULT...A GALE WARNING FOR WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT WAS
ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW.

FOR THURSDAY...SEAS WILL IN GENERAL BE ON THE DECREASE.
HOWEVER...ONE MODEL SUGGESTS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS. THIS COULD RESULT IN
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS THURSDAY MORNING. SIMILAR TO TODAYS WINDS...THIS MAY SLOW
THE DOWNWARD TREND IN SEAS.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE WATERS AS SEAS WILL
LIKELY DROP BELOW 10 FT.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THIS WEEKENDS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
CONTINUE TO VARY ON THE DETAILS...BUT GENERALLY AGREE A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AROUND 985MB...WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INSIDE 130
W AND MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN VANCOUVER ISLAND AND THE NORTH
OREGON COAST. THIS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF LOW END
STORM FORCE GUSTS OF 50 KT. SEAS WILL LIKELY RISE SHARPLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND APPROACH 20 FT LATE SATURDAY.

AFTER A BREAK IN THE WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE LANDFALL
ON THE WEST COAST NEXT TUESDAY. GALE FORCE TO LOW END STORM FORCE
WINDS CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.
/NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE. PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM PDT
     THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 222210 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
307 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS BRINGING HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...MOVING
INTO THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PLENTY OF POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE NORTH COAST. ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY STRONG SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE RAIN AND WIND TO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. YET ANOTHER FRONT IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A LOOK AT THE
LATEST DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WIDE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. AMSU SATELLITE DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE SHOWING AROUND 1.25 INCHES FEEDING INTO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE RAIN BAND HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY...AS A DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LED TO
A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF WHICH EFFECTIVELY STALLED THE FRONT.
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE NEAR
43N 130W AT CURRENT. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITATION TOTALS SO FAR
ARE IN THE S WA AND N OR COAST RANGE AND THE S WA CASCADES...WHERE
GENERALLY 1.5 TO 3 INCHES HAVE FALLEN SO FAR. THE FOCUS OF THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL OR COAST
RANGE AND N WILLAMETTE VALLEY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

EXPECT THE HEAVY RAIN TO PUSH VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS DO NOT INDICATE ANY RIVER
FLOODING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE COASTAL
RIVERS DRAINING THE COAST RANGE ARE SHOWING SHARP RISES THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN STREET FLOODING
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL
INTO THIS EVENING. THERE ARE ALSO PLENTY OF LEAVES AROUND...SO
CLOGGED STORM DRAINS COULD BE A CONCERN. THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO QUIET
DOWN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE STEADIER RAIN MOVES INTO
THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES. HOWEVER...EXPECT PLENTY OF POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THU. A BROAD CLOSED LOW
OFF OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL SPIN A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
TOWARD THE PAC NW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO
ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MAY EVEN BRING A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS
TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS BUILD UPSTREAM OF RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES. WARMER
AIR ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...MODEL
AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS IN AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION IS BEING MODELED FOR MOST OF THE
REGION BEHIND THE WARM FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. CONFIDENCE IS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE THAT THE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN
RAPIDLY OFFSHORE LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT...THEN PUSH ONSHORE ALONG
THE WA COAST LATE SAT. IF THE LOW TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE OREGON
COAST...LIKE THE GFS 12Z IS INDICATING...THERE COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR
VERY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. HOWEVER...THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF MODEL SPREAD IN THE EXACT TIMING AND TRAJECTORY OF THE
LOW...WHICH WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON HOW THIS SYSTEM
IMPACTS OUR FCST AREA.AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER WET
AND WINDY PERIOD IS LIKELY SAT...BUT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH FRONTAL
SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EVERY 24 TO 48 HOURS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS DWINDLING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES
WITH THE SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM SHOULD GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN LESS
AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW WITH THIS
STORM...BUT ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF RAIN. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER FRONT IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY
ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH TJ.
&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF IFR...MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE
LOWER CEILINGS. AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE
SHOWERY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW
SUIT. ANOTHER DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD
TEMPORARILY REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...STEAD RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND
TOWARDS A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE CONDITIONS LIKELY TURN VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS AND BASED ON WEATHER STATIONS AT NEWPORT AND
FLORENCE...IT APPEARS TO BE EXITING THE WATERS. WILL MONITOR
TRENDS...BUT THE GALE WARNING FOR THE INNER CENTRAL OREGON WATERS
APPEARS ABOUT OVER DESPITE SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTING OTHERWISE.
WILL LET EVENING SHIFT TAKE IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS BEFORE CANCELING
THE GALE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON INNER WATERS.

FURTHER NORTH...A LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER OUR
NORTHWESTERN WATERS. IT HAS DEEPENED MORE THAN ANTICIPATED AND
JUST STARTED PRODUCING LOW END GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 35 KT AT
BUOY 29. IF WINDS HAVE NOT PEAKED ALREADY AT BUOY 29...SUSPECT
THEY WILL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE
NORTHERN INNER WATERS AROUND THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. AS A
RESULT...A GALE WARNING FOR WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT WAS ISSUED FOR THE
NORTHERN WATERS. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW.

FOR THURSDAY...SEAS WILL IN GENERAL BE ON THE DECREASE.
HOWEVER...ONE MODEL SUGGESTS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS. THIS COULD RESULT IN
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS THURSDAY MORNING. SIMILAR TO TODAYS WINDS...THIS MAY SLOW
THE DOWNWARD TREND IN SEAS.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE WATERS AS SEAS WILL
LIKELY DROP BELOW 10 FT.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THIS WEEKENDS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
CONTINUE TO VARY ON THE DETAILS...BUT GENERALLY AGREE A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AROUND 985MB...WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INSIDE 130
W AND MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN VANCOUVER ISLAND AND THE NORTH
OREGON COAST. THIS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF LOW END
STORM FORCE GUSTS OF 50 KT. SEAS WILL LIKELY RISE SHARPLY AND
APPROACH 20 FT LATE SATURDAY.

AFTER A BREAK IN THE WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE LANDFALL
ON THE WEST COAST NEXT TUESDAY. GALE FORCE TO LOW END STORM FORCE
WINDS CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.
/NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE. PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM PDT
     THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 222207
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
307 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS BRINGING HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...MOVING
INTO THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PLENTY OF POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE NORTH COAST. ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY STRONG SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE RAIN AND WIND TO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. YET ANOTHER FRONT IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A LOOK AT THE
LATEST DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WIDE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. AMSU SATELLITE DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE SHOWING AROUND 1.25 INCHES FEEDING INTO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE RAIN BAND HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY...AS A DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LED TO
A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF WHICH EFFECTIVELY STALLED THE FRONT.
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE NEAR
43N 130W AT CURRENT. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITATION TOTALS SO FAR
ARE IN THE S WA AND N OR COAST RANGE AND THE S WA CASCADES...WHERE
GENERALLY 1.5 TO 3 INCHES HAVE FALLEN SO FAR. THE FOCUS OF THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL OR COAST
RANGE AND N WILLAMETTE VALLEY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

EXPECT THE HEAVY RAIN TO PUSH VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS DO NOT INDICATE ANY RIVER
FLOODING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE COASTAL
RIVERS DRAINING THE COAST RANGE ARE SHOWING SHARP RISES THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN STREET FLOODING
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL
INTO THIS EVENING. THERE ARE ALSO PLENTY OF LEAVES AROUND...SO
CLOGGED STORM DRAINS COULD BE A CONCERN. THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO QUIET
DOWN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE STEADIER RAIN MOVES INTO
THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES. HOWEVER...EXPECT PLENTY OF POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THU. A BROAD CLOSED LOW
OFF OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL SPIN A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
TOWARD THE PAC NW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO
ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MAY EVEN BRING A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS
TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS BUILD UPSTREAM OF RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES. WARMER
AIR ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...MODEL
AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS IN AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION IS BEING MODELED FOR MOST OF THE
REGION BEHIND THE WARM FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. CONFIDENCE IS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE THAT THE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN
RAPIDLY OFFSHORE LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT...THEN PUSH ONSHORE ALONG
THE WA COAST LATE SAT. IF THE LOW TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE OREGON
COAST...LIKE THE GFS 12Z IS INDICATING...THERE COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR
VERY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. HOWEVER...THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF MODEL SPREAD IN THE EXACT TIMING AND TRAJECTORY OF THE
LOW...WHICH WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON HOW THIS SYSTEM
IMPACTS OUR FCST AREA.AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER WET
AND WINDY PERIOD IS LIKELY SAT...BUT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH FRONTAL
SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EVERY 24 TO 48 HOURS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS DWINDLING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES
WITH THE SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM SHOULD GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN LESS
AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW WITH THIS
STORM...BUT ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF RAIN. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER FRONT IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY
ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH TJ.
&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF IFR...MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE
LOWER CEILINGS. AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE
SHOWERY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW
SUIT. ANOTHER DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD
TEMPORARILY REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...STEAD RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND
TOWARDS A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE CONDITIONS LIKELY TURN VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS AND BASED ON WEATHER STATIONS AT NEWPORT AND
FLORENCE...IT APPEARS TO BE EXITING THE WATERS. WILL MONITOR
TRENDS...BUT THE GALE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS
APPEARS ABOUT OVER DESPITE SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTING OTHERWISE.
WILL LET EVENING SHIFT TAKE IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS BEFORE
CANCELING THE GALE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON INNER WATERS.

FURTHER NORTH...A LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER OUR
NORTHWESTERN WATERS. IT HAS DEEPENED MORE THAN ANTICIPATED AND
JUST STARTED PRODUCING LOW END GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 35 KT AT
BUOY 29. IF WINDS HAVE NOT PEAKED ALREADY AT BUOY 29...SUSPECT
THEY WILL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE
NORTHERN INNER WATERS AROUND THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. AS A
RESULT...A GALE WARNING FOR WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT WAS ISSUED FOR THE
NORTHERN WATERS. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW.

FOR THURSDAY...SEAS WILL IN GENERAL BE ON THE DECREASE.
HOWEVER...ONE MODEL SUGGESTS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS. THIS COULD RESULT IN
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS THURSDAY MORNING. SIMILAR TO TODAYS WINDS...THIS MAY SLOW
THE DOWNWARD TREND IN SEAS.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE WATERS AS SEAS WILL
LIKELY DROP BELOW 10 FT.

THE BIG STORY WILL THIS WEEKENDS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
CONTINUE TO VARY ON THE DETAILS...BUT GENERALLY AGREE A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 985MB WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INSIDE 130 W
AND POSSIBLY MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN VANCOUVER ISLAND AND
THE NORTH OREGON COAST. THIS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PRODUCE GALE
FORCE WINDS SATURDAY...WITH A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF LOW END STORM
FORCE GUSTS OF 50 KT SATURDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WOULD CERTAINLY
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 20 FT SEAS.

AFTER A BREAK LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS
SUGGEST ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST
NEXT TUESDAY. GALE FORCE TO STORM FORCE WINDS CERTAINLY APPEAR
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM AS WELL. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE. PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM PDT
     THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 222127
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
227 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A very moist frontal boundary will produce heavy rain and high
elevation snow for the mountains and steady rain in the valleys
and basin tonight. Breezy and unsettled conditions will continue
through Thursday. A strong cold front will produce windy conditions
Saturday night into Sunday morning. The pattern will continue to
be active into early next week. This includes the potential for
widespread rain into early next week, as moisture associated with
former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday...Pacific satellite loop displays a
baroclinic leaf cloud structure developing over western Washington
this afternoon...indicative of a frontal couplet featuring a warm
front running west to east over eastern Washington followed by a
cold occluded front running southwest to northeast just off the
Pacific Coast. This frontal complex is being fueled by a deep and
well directed fetch of sub-tropical moisture. The passage of this
sopping wet frontal complex will drive the weather for the next 24
to 36 hours. The entire forecast area is or soon will be in the
thick of this wet storm...with surface observation already
recording a general 1/2 to 1 inch of rain and high mountain snow
WE over the Cascades in the last 12 hours...with even the
normally dry deep basin locations receiving from a few hundredths
to a tenth of and inch already this afternoon. The surface
pressure gradient is producing a downslope southeast wind field
over the Palouse and points south which is retarding the onset of
precipitation.

Two regimes or rounds will occur over the next 24 hours. The
first round will occur this evening over the west and through
tonight over the east and will be characterized by steady light
to moderate stratiform rain enhancing isentropically over the slow
moving or nearly stationary warm front. Low level upslope flow
into the Cascades will assure continued precipitation even over
the normally dry deep basin. Snow levels will remain around 6000
feet in this warm advective scenario. The currently dry Palouse
and LC valley will succumb to the rain later tonight as the fetch
becomes better directed and in particular as the robust lift
along the occlusion moves through towards dawn.

The arrival of the occluded front will mark the beginning of the
second round. Passing trough the Cascades around midnight and into
the Idaho Panhandle around dawn this front will bring an area of
dense and occasionally heavy showers just ahead of it...followed
by a quick shut off of significant precipitation but a quick
increase in winds especially over the exposed terrain of the
basin. A moist orographic regime will dominate with the usual rain
shadow off the Cascades and continued orographic showers feeding
into the northeast Washington and Idaho Panhandle mountains.

Winds on Thursday look to be solidly breezy with gust potential up
to 30-35 mph or so on exposed terrain but the models are similar
in depicting a gradient that will not justify any wind highlights
at this time. These winds will help keep temperatures on the warm
side of normal in a well mixed and adiabatically dominated surface
layer.

Hydrology Issues...rainfall totals from this storm will range
from over 2 inches near the Cascade Crest to 1 to 2 inches in the
mountains north and east of the basin. Lowland locations will
range from 1/4 to 1/2 inch in the basin to near an inch or so in
the valleys branching off the basin. River levels appear to be low
enough to be able to handle this runoff with no trouble but
smaller streams and tributaries draining the mountains will likely
see significant rises but probably no small stream flooding. The
wild card issue is how the recent burn scars in the Cascades will
handle this soaking rain. Rain rates will not be sufficient to
trigger classic flash floods but as the soil becomes saturated
there is a possibility of denuded slopes becoming unstable and
producing debris flows. These debris flows in gullies and stream
beds could also produce debris dams in the channels and lead to a
higher threat of dambreak flooding or "Ice Jam" type upstream
flooding. There is a great deal of uncertainty and little
experience/case history with these possibilities and these areas
will need to be monitored closely over the next 24 hours. /Fugazzi

Thursday night through Friday: Moist and unstable upslope flow
will produce lingering showers across the ID Panhandle. These
showers will be most numerous Thursday evening and taper off
through Friday. All of the rain from the current weather system
impacting the region will result in substantial boundary layer
moisture. This will increase the threat for fog overnight Thursday
into Friday morning as mid level clouds clear west to east across
eastern WA. Friday will be fairly benign with the region in
between weather systems. High temperatures will be near to or
slightly above normal in the 50s to low 60s.

Friday night through Saturday night: A vigorous shortwave trough
of lower pressure will pivot around the upper level low pressure
system in the Gulf of Alaska on Friday. In addition, a moderate to
strong jet streak will be draped across the state of WA. A strong
vorticity maximum at the base of the shortwave trough and favorable
jet dynamics for large scale lift in the right entrance region of
the jet streak will result in rapid surface cyclogenesis along
130W off the coast of northern CA and southern OR. Models show
good agreement with this surface low tracking northeast into
northwest WA on Saturday. The GFS is on the faster side of the
medium range model guidance available, but good agreement overall.

The warm front is progged to push north across the region Friday
night. This will result in increased low level flow out of the
east. The front itself does not appear to be particularly strong
or moist. Easterly flow down the east slopes of the ID Panhandle
Mountains will result in some downward motions across these areas
out into the eastern basin. This will counteract the lift along
the warm front somewhat. Best chances for precip will likely be
across the western portion of the forecast area, and more so in
the East Slopes of the Northern Cascades where easterly flow will
create some orographic enhancement. Temperatures will likely be
fairly mild across the eastern portion of the forecast area
behind the warm front on Saturday.

Cold front passage with this system is expected Saturday night.
This will result in increasing chances for precipitation from west
to east along the front. Precipitation with this system is not
expected to be much of a concern with light to moderate amounts
anticipated. The greater concern with the front will be the
winds. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty still at this
time, but the surface low will be pushing inland across northwest WA
near its peak intensity. The 12Z GFS and NAM model guidance has
come in with an 850 mb jet of around 50-55 kt winds. There will be
some decent cold air advection with the front, so I anticipate
these winds will have a chance to mix down to the surface even
though it will push across after sunset. These solutions are much
stronger than previous runs, so confidence is still only moderate
at this time. A wind highlight may be needed if these stronger
solutions continue as the event approaches. /SVH

Sunday through Wednesday: Models continue to depict an active
pattern, with temperature held closer to seasonal averages;
however agreement over the details decreases in the new work week.

Sunday and Sunday night a surface low over southwest Canada
tracks east. A trough trailing it sags across northeast WA and
north ID, weakening and pulling away by Monday morning. In tandem,
the supporting upper trough migrates from the Pacific NW to the
northern High Plains, with the steering flow switching from
southwest to west-northwest. Moisture and low-grade instability
wrapped up in these features will continue providing shower chances
across much of the Inland NW. Yet the best chances will be near
the Cascade crest and the mountains of northeast WA and ID; the
lowest chances will be in the lee of the Cascades and L-C Valley.

From Sunday night into Monday the threat will retreat to just the
mountain areas and if anything falls it looks light. There will
be a stratus and patchy fog threat over the eastern Columbia Basin
into the eastern mountain valleys in the night and morning hours
too, given the lower level southwest flow and moisture provided
from recent rains.

From Monday night through Tuesday night the next system comes in,
ostensibly with another modest moisture fetch which includes the
remains former tropical system Ana. However there is wide
variation amongst models over the precise track and timing of the
system. Some runs bring a defined low toward the central BC coast
and others bring a smaller scale low toward the northern Oregon
coast. The further south solutions offer higher precipitation
amounts for the Inland NW and the further north solution shows
more diffuse, lighter precipitation. These details will continue
to be monitored and fine-tuned as we get more information. Right
now look for thickening clouds on Monday night with the main rain
chances increasing over the Cascades. The precipitation chances
increase across the rest of the area going into Tuesday and
Tuesday night as the system moves inland. By Wednesday models
depict a shortwave ridge builds in, leading to a relative decrease
in the precipitation threat and some stratus/patchy fog threat
again over the eastern third of WA and north ID, especially in the
sheltered valleys. Rain chances will begin to increase from the
west again late as that next system approaches. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A very moist stream of Pacific moisture will enhance
over a slow moving developing warm front draped west to east
across the region today with gradually deteriorating conditions at
all TAF sites except KPUW and KLWS...where dry downslope winds
will promote increasing clouds but generally dry conditions today.
MVFR ceilings in RA will likely develop at KEAT and possibly KMWH
during the day today. At the KGEG area TAF sites mostly VFR
showers are expected through 00Z with steady stratiform rain and
occasional MVFR ceilings developing after 00Z. Tonight a trailing
occluding front will sweep through the region with heavier rain
along and immediately behind the front. A moist boundary layer
even after the FROPA will likely promote continued IFR stratus
ceilings through 18Z Thursday at the KGEG area TAF sites and
KEAT. /MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        48  59  43  57  44  63 / 100  50  50  10  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  46  58  41  57  41  64 / 100  70  50  20  20  20
Pullman        48  59  45  59  47  69 /  90  80  50  10  40  10
Lewiston       53  63  48  64  46  72 /  40  60  50  20  40  10
Colville       48  57  41  58  41  60 / 100  60  50  10  50  30
Sandpoint      45  55  38  56  38  60 / 100 100  70  20  30  20
Kellogg        46  54  41  53  42  62 /  90  80  80  30  20  10
Moses Lake     50  64  43  61  45  63 /  90  20  10  10  40  20
Wenatchee      49  61  44  57  47  58 / 100  30  10  10  60  40
Omak           48  59  40  58  44  58 / 100  40  10  10  60  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 221704
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1004 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Through Wednesday night, a very moist frontal boundary will
produce heavy precipitation for the Cascades and possibly the
mountains of North Idaho. Though the heavy rains end Thursday
Night, the pattern will continue to be active into early next
week. This includes the potential for widespread rain Friday into
Saturday, then again Monday into  Tuesday, as moisture associated
with former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today...Satellite imagery reveals a deep and well
directed fetch of Pacific moisture beginning to hose into the
region this morning. This moisture will be efficiently enhanced
into widespread rain and high mountain snow over a developing warm
front draped across the region today. A general deterioration
first into increasingly common showers...then into outright steady
rain will overtake the eastern half of the forecast area as the
day wears on. Over the western half...the Cascades to a Moses
lake- Republic line...Steady light to moderate rain has already
begun or soon will begin with many locations in the Cascades
already tallying 1/3 to >1/2 inch in the last 12 hours. The best
chance of dry but increasingly cloudy conditions today will be
over the Central Panhandle Mountains and the Palouse and points
south where downsloping east winds will help keep the sub-cloud
layer drier for longer today...but eventually...probably sometime
this evening...rain will begin here as well.

Inherited forecast from the mid-shift has this trend well in
hand...and only a few minor tweaks in pops and temperatures have
been made fro the morning zone update. No need to update State
Forecast Product at this time. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A very moist stream of Pacific moisture will enhance
over a slow moving developing warm front draped west to east
across the region today with gradually deteriorating conditions at
all TAF sites except KPUW and KLWS...where dry downslope winds
will promote increasing clouds but generally dry conditions today.
MVFR ceilings in RA will likely develop at KEAT and possibly KMWH
during the day today. At the KGEG area TAF sites mostly VFR
showers are expected through 00Z with steady stratiform rain and
occasional MVFR ceilings developing after 00Z. Tonight a trailing
occluding front will sweep through the region with heavier rain
along and immediately behind the front. A moist boundary layer
even after the FROPA will likely promote continued IFR stratus
ceilings through 18Z Thursday at the KGEG area TAF sites and
KEAT. /MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  48  59  43  56  44 /  70 100  50  20  40  60
Coeur d`Alene  55  45  58  41  55  41 /  60 100  70  30  40  60
Pullman        62  47  59  45  58  47 /  30  80  60  30  50  50
Lewiston       66  51  63  48  61  46 /  10  40  60  40  60  30
Colville       53  45  57  41  59  41 / 100 100  60  30  20  60
Sandpoint      54  43  55  38  57  38 /  80 100  90  50  20  60
Kellogg        52  45  54  41  53  42 /  20  90  80  60  40  60
Moses Lake     59  48  64  43  58  45 /  90  90  20  10  50  60
Wenatchee      55  48  61  44  55  47 / 100 100  30  10  60  70
Omak           56  46  59  40  58  44 / 100 100  40  20  20  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 221704
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1004 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Through Wednesday night, a very moist frontal boundary will
produce heavy precipitation for the Cascades and possibly the
mountains of North Idaho. Though the heavy rains end Thursday
Night, the pattern will continue to be active into early next
week. This includes the potential for widespread rain Friday into
Saturday, then again Monday into  Tuesday, as moisture associated
with former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today...Satellite imagery reveals a deep and well
directed fetch of Pacific moisture beginning to hose into the
region this morning. This moisture will be efficiently enhanced
into widespread rain and high mountain snow over a developing warm
front draped across the region today. A general deterioration
first into increasingly common showers...then into outright steady
rain will overtake the eastern half of the forecast area as the
day wears on. Over the western half...the Cascades to a Moses
lake- Republic line...Steady light to moderate rain has already
begun or soon will begin with many locations in the Cascades
already tallying 1/3 to >1/2 inch in the last 12 hours. The best
chance of dry but increasingly cloudy conditions today will be
over the Central Panhandle Mountains and the Palouse and points
south where downsloping east winds will help keep the sub-cloud
layer drier for longer today...but eventually...probably sometime
this evening...rain will begin here as well.

Inherited forecast from the mid-shift has this trend well in
hand...and only a few minor tweaks in pops and temperatures have
been made fro the morning zone update. No need to update State
Forecast Product at this time. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A very moist stream of Pacific moisture will enhance
over a slow moving developing warm front draped west to east
across the region today with gradually deteriorating conditions at
all TAF sites except KPUW and KLWS...where dry downslope winds
will promote increasing clouds but generally dry conditions today.
MVFR ceilings in RA will likely develop at KEAT and possibly KMWH
during the day today. At the KGEG area TAF sites mostly VFR
showers are expected through 00Z with steady stratiform rain and
occasional MVFR ceilings developing after 00Z. Tonight a trailing
occluding front will sweep through the region with heavier rain
along and immediately behind the front. A moist boundary layer
even after the FROPA will likely promote continued IFR stratus
ceilings through 18Z Thursday at the KGEG area TAF sites and
KEAT. /MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  48  59  43  56  44 /  70 100  50  20  40  60
Coeur d`Alene  55  45  58  41  55  41 /  60 100  70  30  40  60
Pullman        62  47  59  45  58  47 /  30  80  60  30  50  50
Lewiston       66  51  63  48  61  46 /  10  40  60  40  60  30
Colville       53  45  57  41  59  41 / 100 100  60  30  20  60
Sandpoint      54  43  55  38  57  38 /  80 100  90  50  20  60
Kellogg        52  45  54  41  53  42 /  20  90  80  60  40  60
Moses Lake     59  48  64  43  58  45 /  90  90  20  10  50  60
Wenatchee      55  48  61  44  55  47 / 100 100  30  10  60  70
Omak           56  46  59  40  58  44 / 100 100  40  20  20  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 221638
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
940 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS
ACCESS TO A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE WHICH STRETCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC...MEANING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST WILL REMAIN WINDY THROUGH MORNING...AND
POTENTIALLY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT
AS IT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. ANOTHER WET AND
POTENTIALLY WINDY SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS LASHED
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG AND MOIST
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING ONSHORE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SO FAR HAS FALLEN
OVER THE S WASHINGTON AND N OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE...WHERE
GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED. FAST RESPONDING STREAMS IN THIS AREA SUCH AS THE GRAYS
RIVER AND THE NASELLE RIVER AS SHOWING SHARP RISES OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. WE WILL BE MONITORING CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS THE
LATEST FORECAST FOR THE THE GRAYS HAS THE RIVER STAGE REACHING JUST
SHORT OF FLOOD STAGE. AS THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST...THE BAND OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE
FOCUSED OVER THE CASCADES...WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND OREGON COAST
RANGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FORECASTED RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE
ENTIRE EVENT AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1-2 INCHES IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...AND 3-5 INCHES FOR
MOST OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. IN ADDITION TO WATCHING OUR FAST
RESPONDING RIVERS AND STREAMS DRAINING THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING OVER
THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. THIS THREAT COULD BE EXACERBATED BY FALLEN
LEAVES CLOGGING STORM DRAINS.

THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE BEEN GUSTY...BUT HAVE
FALLEN SHORT OF EXPECTATIONS FOR THE MOST PART. MOST BEACH AND
HEADLAND LOCATIONS HAVE TOPPED OUT AROUND 45-55 MPH...WITH A FEW
SPOTS GUSTING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ALONG THE NORTH OREGON
COAST. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE NOW CONFINED MAINLY TO THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE. DECIDED TO ALLOW THE HIGH WIND WARNING
TO EXPIRE FOR THE NORTH OREGON COAST AS OF 9 AM. THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE SHORT TERM HRRR AND RAP MODELS INDICATE THAT A WAVE MOVING ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY RE-ENERGIZE THE WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST AGAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...THE HIGH WIND WARNING
CURRENTLY SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT NOON MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. WILL
MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PYLE

.REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION REMAINS UNCHANGED...
THURSDAY THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. RAINFALL THURSDAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN WEDNESDAY. COULD BE A COUPLE SUNBREAKS BETWEEN
SHOWERS...SO INCREASED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY.

THERE IS ANOTHER STRONG AND WET STORM EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ALONG
THE COAST AND IMPACT NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
SIGNIFICANTLY ON FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS...THIS SYSTEM IS
LOOKING QUITE WET AGAIN...WITH A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL PROBABLY BRING
MORE WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS TO THE COAST AND A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF
TRACKS SUGGEST POSSIBLY VERY WINDY CONDITIONS INLAND AS WELL. AUTUMN
IS KICKING INTO FULL GEAR WITH A BANG.WEAGLE/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE
TO KEEP THE REGION IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH EVERY OTHER. WHILE SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES REMAIN...MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT
ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE BRINGING A
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL FOR LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS LIKELY LINGER FOR SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR MORE RAINFALL.
WHILE SOME QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
EVOLVE AND TRACK...AND JUST HOW STRONG THEY WILL BE...IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT WE WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH WET WEATHER AT
TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY AT KAST.
CONDITIONS MAY HOLD IN IFR A BIT LONGER AT KONP. FURTHER
INLAND...WEAKENING WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
STEADY RAIN MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...AND
SCATTERED BRIEF BOUTS OF IFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW ALL INTERIOR TAF SITES TO GENERALLY
RETURN TO VFR OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LASTING THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING STEADY RAIN
TODAY. HOWEVER...BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES VFR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AS WINDS WEAKEN
TOWARDS 00Z TO 06Z THURSDAY...MVFR TO EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND THIS TIME. HOWEVER...INCREASING
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE WATERS...STRETCHING
FROM BUOY 50 NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT WINDS ARE GENERALLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY
DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE WEST ALONG THE FRONT...AND MAY PUSH THE
FRONT BACK NORTHWARD AND TEMPORARILY STRENGTHEN IT THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST. AS A RESULT...KEPT THE GALE WARNING GOING FOR THE CENTRAL
OREGON WATERS AND WILL DECIDE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WHETHER OR
NOT TO EXTEND IT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS IN THE MODELS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY WAY OVERDONE ON THEIR WIND SPEEDS...MAKING
IT DIFFICULT TO TRUST THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...THE WIND FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST EVEN IF THE GALE WARNING IS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
OR IF IT IS EXTENDED.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE...GENERALLY IN THE
17 TO 19 FT RANGE. GIVEN WINDS HAVE DROPPED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS
THE WATERS...SEAS SHOULD RESPOND FAIRLY QUICK IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AND DROP INTO THE 14 TO 16 FT RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SEAS MAY HOLD STEADY FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS
MATERIALIZE...BUT OTHERWISE THEY SHOULD CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND
INTO THE 11 TO 13 FT RANGE BY THURSDAY MORNING.

SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW 10 FT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO CONVERGE TOWARDS A COMMON SOLUTION THAT WOULD RESULT
IN A DEEPENING 985MB-ISH LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD INSIDE 130
W. THIS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 50 KT OR
GREATER SATURDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 FT OR MORE SEAS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION...ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING AT LEAST GALE FORCE WINDS MAY IMPACT THE WATERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 AM PDT
     THURSDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM.

&&


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR NORTH OREGON
     COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 AM
     PDT THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 221638
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
940 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS
ACCESS TO A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE WHICH STRETCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC...MEANING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST WILL REMAIN WINDY THROUGH MORNING...AND
POTENTIALLY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT
AS IT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. ANOTHER WET AND
POTENTIALLY WINDY SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS LASHED
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG AND MOIST
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING ONSHORE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SO FAR HAS FALLEN
OVER THE S WASHINGTON AND N OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE...WHERE
GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED. FAST RESPONDING STREAMS IN THIS AREA SUCH AS THE GRAYS
RIVER AND THE NASELLE RIVER AS SHOWING SHARP RISES OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. WE WILL BE MONITORING CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS THE
LATEST FORECAST FOR THE THE GRAYS HAS THE RIVER STAGE REACHING JUST
SHORT OF FLOOD STAGE. AS THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST...THE BAND OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE
FOCUSED OVER THE CASCADES...WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND OREGON COAST
RANGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FORECASTED RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE
ENTIRE EVENT AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1-2 INCHES IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...2-4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...AND 3-5 INCHES FOR
MOST OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. IN ADDITION TO WATCHING OUR FAST
RESPONDING RIVERS AND STREAMS DRAINING THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING OVER
THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. THIS THREAT COULD BE EXACERBATED BY FALLEN
LEAVES CLOGGING STORM DRAINS.

THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE BEEN GUSTY...BUT HAVE
FALLEN SHORT OF EXPECTATIONS FOR THE MOST PART. MOST BEACH AND
HEADLAND LOCATIONS HAVE TOPPED OUT AROUND 45-55 MPH...WITH A FEW
SPOTS GUSTING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ALONG THE NORTH OREGON
COAST. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE NOW CONFINED MAINLY TO THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE. DECIDED TO ALLOW THE HIGH WIND WARNING
TO EXPIRE FOR THE NORTH OREGON COAST AS OF 9 AM. THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE SHORT TERM HRRR AND RAP MODELS INDICATE THAT A WAVE MOVING ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY RE-ENERGIZE THE WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST AGAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...THE HIGH WIND WARNING
CURRENTLY SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT NOON MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. WILL
MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PYLE

.REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION REMAINS UNCHANGED...
THURSDAY THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. RAINFALL THURSDAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN WEDNESDAY. COULD BE A COUPLE SUNBREAKS BETWEEN
SHOWERS...SO INCREASED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY.

THERE IS ANOTHER STRONG AND WET STORM EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ALONG
THE COAST AND IMPACT NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
SIGNIFICANTLY ON FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS...THIS SYSTEM IS
LOOKING QUITE WET AGAIN...WITH A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL PROBABLY BRING
MORE WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS TO THE COAST AND A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF
TRACKS SUGGEST POSSIBLY VERY WINDY CONDITIONS INLAND AS WELL. AUTUMN
IS KICKING INTO FULL GEAR WITH A BANG.WEAGLE/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE
TO KEEP THE REGION IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH EVERY OTHER. WHILE SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES REMAIN...MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT
ANOTHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE BRINGING A
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL FOR LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS LIKELY LINGER FOR SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR MORE RAINFALL.
WHILE SOME QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
EVOLVE AND TRACK...AND JUST HOW STRONG THEY WILL BE...IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT WE WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH WET WEATHER AT
TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY AT KAST.
CONDITIONS MAY HOLD IN IFR A BIT LONGER AT KONP. FURTHER
INLAND...WEAKENING WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
STEADY RAIN MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...AND
SCATTERED BRIEF BOUTS OF IFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW ALL INTERIOR TAF SITES TO GENERALLY
RETURN TO VFR OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LASTING THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING STEADY RAIN
TODAY. HOWEVER...BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES VFR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AS WINDS WEAKEN
TOWARDS 00Z TO 06Z THURSDAY...MVFR TO EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND THIS TIME. HOWEVER...INCREASING
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE WATERS...STRETCHING
FROM BUOY 50 NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT WINDS ARE GENERALLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY
DEVELOPING FURTHER TO THE WEST ALONG THE FRONT...AND MAY PUSH THE
FRONT BACK NORTHWARD AND TEMPORARILY STRENGTHEN IT THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST. AS A RESULT...KEPT THE GALE WARNING GOING FOR THE CENTRAL
OREGON WATERS AND WILL DECIDE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WHETHER OR
NOT TO EXTEND IT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS IN THE MODELS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY WAY OVERDONE ON THEIR WIND SPEEDS...MAKING
IT DIFFICULT TO TRUST THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...THE WIND FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST EVEN IF THE GALE WARNING IS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
OR IF IT IS EXTENDED.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE...GENERALLY IN THE
17 TO 19 FT RANGE. GIVEN WINDS HAVE DROPPED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS
THE WATERS...SEAS SHOULD RESPOND FAIRLY QUICK IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AND DROP INTO THE 14 TO 16 FT RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SEAS MAY HOLD STEADY FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS
MATERIALIZE...BUT OTHERWISE THEY SHOULD CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND
INTO THE 11 TO 13 FT RANGE BY THURSDAY MORNING.

SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW 10 FT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO CONVERGE TOWARDS A COMMON SOLUTION THAT WOULD RESULT
IN A DEEPENING 985MB-ISH LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD INSIDE 130
W. THIS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 50 KT OR
GREATER SATURDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 FT OR MORE SEAS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION...ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING AT LEAST GALE FORCE WINDS MAY IMPACT THE WATERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 AM PDT
     THURSDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM.

&&


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR NORTH OREGON
     COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 AM
     PDT THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KSEW 221624
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
925 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
WINDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IS MOVING INTO THE CASCADES THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE AIR MASS IS
UNSTABLE...SO THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE AREA ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADARS SHOW THE FRONT THAT
BROUGHT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA DRAPED
FROM THE NORTHERN CASCADES INTO NORTHWEST OREGON THIS MORNING. THE
FRONT IS MOVING OFF TO THE SE. WIND ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR DROPPED OFF RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT...SO ALL OF
THE WIND ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DROPPED. THE NATURE OF
THE PRECIPITATION HAS BECOME SHOWERY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND RADAR
AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. AS A
RESULT...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS ADDED TO THE COAST AND
COASTAL WATERS FOR TODAY.

THE 12Z NAM12 AND GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW THE COOL AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
OFFSHORE GRADUALLY MOVING INLAND TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES RISING TO ABOUT 500 J/KG OVER THE
INTERIOR ON THU AND GFS MOS SHOWS THE CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF
TSTMS RISING TO OVER 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. SO A CHANCE
OF TSTMS WAS ADDED TO THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA FOR TONIGHT AND THE
ENTIRE AREA ON THU AS DISTURBANCES IN THE COOL AIR ROTATE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SW.

SHOWERS DIMINISH THU NIGHT AND COME TO AN END FRI MORNING AS A DEEP
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS LOW
APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM DROPPING SE FROM
THE BERING SEA INTERACTS WITH THE REMAINS OF ANA NW OF HAWAII. THE
LATEST NAM12 AND GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW THE LOW REACHING ITS MAXIMUM
DEPTH AT AROUND 985-987 MB OFF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST...WITH A
VERTICALLY STACKED MATURE LOW IN ITS DECAYING STAGE AS IT MOVES NE
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON SAT NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW AND SHORT WAVE
RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW WILL LIKELY GIVE A DRY PERIOD FRI
AFTN THROUGH EARLY SAT WITH RAIN MOVING IN LATER SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
WHILE IT APPEARS THAT SUNDAY WILL BE WINDY...THE THREAT OF A WIND
STORM OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE DECAYING NATURE OF THE STORM AND THE WIND FIELD
SPREADING OUT FROM ITS CENTER. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN COOL AND UNSTABLE ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INLAND. A RIDGE WILL THEN PASS OVERHEAD ON MON FOR A BREAK IN
THE WEATHER...WILL LIKELY SEE POPS DECREASED OVER THIS PERIOD. THEN
MORE RAIN AND BLUSTERY WEATHER BY TUE AS ANOTHER WET PAC FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES IN. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH
RIVER IN MASON COUNTY. THE RIVER SHOULD CREST BY NOON TODAY THEN
SLOWLY FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN IN THE CASCADES IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE ANY
OF THE CASCADE RIVERS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...A CDFNT OVER THE INTERIOR WILL CONT MOVING SLOWLY E.
THIS FRONT WILL BE E OF THE CASCADES BY 0600 UTC THU. CONTD LOW
LEVEL SLY FLOW. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE OVER THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON FOR A RISK OF ISOLD TSTMS. CONTD STRONG SW FLOW
ALOFT. THE MTNS WILL BE OBSCD.

MEANWHILE...EXPECT AREAS OF CIGS NEAR 1K FT ALONG WITH VSBYS IN THE
2-4SM RANGE DUE TO RAIN AND/OR FOG THIS MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS OF CIGS IN THE 2-3K FT
RANGE ANTICIPATED. THERE WILL ALSO BE AREAS OF VSBYS IN THE 3-5SM
RANGE WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON.

KSEA...EXPECT OCNL CIGS IN THE 2-3K FT RANGE TODAY. VSBYS WILL
LIKELY LOWER INTO THE 4-6SM RANGE WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIP. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY SLY AT 6-12 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...A SERIES OF SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THU. THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A RISK OF
TSTMS. MEANWHILE...LOWER PRES OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND HIGH PRES
OVER CA WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THU. THE FLOW WILL
BECOME OFFSHORE OR EASTERLY ON FRI IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE OREGON WATERS FROM THE SW.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON
      COUNTY.
     FLOOD WATCH MASON COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT
      THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR IN EFFECT TIL 6 AM
      THURSDAY FOR THE GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 221624
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
925 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
WINDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IS MOVING INTO THE CASCADES THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE AIR MASS IS
UNSTABLE...SO THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE AREA ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADARS SHOW THE FRONT THAT
BROUGHT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA DRAPED
FROM THE NORTHERN CASCADES INTO NORTHWEST OREGON THIS MORNING. THE
FRONT IS MOVING OFF TO THE SE. WIND ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR DROPPED OFF RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT...SO ALL OF
THE WIND ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DROPPED. THE NATURE OF
THE PRECIPITATION HAS BECOME SHOWERY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND RADAR
AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. AS A
RESULT...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS ADDED TO THE COAST AND
COASTAL WATERS FOR TODAY.

THE 12Z NAM12 AND GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW THE COOL AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
OFFSHORE GRADUALLY MOVING INLAND TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES RISING TO ABOUT 500 J/KG OVER THE
INTERIOR ON THU AND GFS MOS SHOWS THE CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF
TSTMS RISING TO OVER 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. SO A CHANCE
OF TSTMS WAS ADDED TO THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA FOR TONIGHT AND THE
ENTIRE AREA ON THU AS DISTURBANCES IN THE COOL AIR ROTATE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SW.

SHOWERS DIMINISH THU NIGHT AND COME TO AN END FRI MORNING AS A DEEP
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS LOW
APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM DROPPING SE FROM
THE BERING SEA INTERACTS WITH THE REMAINS OF ANA NW OF HAWAII. THE
LATEST NAM12 AND GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW THE LOW REACHING ITS MAXIMUM
DEPTH AT AROUND 985-987 MB OFF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST...WITH A
VERTICALLY STACKED MATURE LOW IN ITS DECAYING STAGE AS IT MOVES NE
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON SAT NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW AND SHORT WAVE
RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW WILL LIKELY GIVE A DRY PERIOD FRI
AFTN THROUGH EARLY SAT WITH RAIN MOVING IN LATER SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
WHILE IT APPEARS THAT SUNDAY WILL BE WINDY...THE THREAT OF A WIND
STORM OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE DECAYING NATURE OF THE STORM AND THE WIND FIELD
SPREADING OUT FROM ITS CENTER. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN COOL AND UNSTABLE ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INLAND. A RIDGE WILL THEN PASS OVERHEAD ON MON FOR A BREAK IN
THE WEATHER...WILL LIKELY SEE POPS DECREASED OVER THIS PERIOD. THEN
MORE RAIN AND BLUSTERY WEATHER BY TUE AS ANOTHER WET PAC FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES IN. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH
RIVER IN MASON COUNTY. THE RIVER SHOULD CREST BY NOON TODAY THEN
SLOWLY FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN IN THE CASCADES IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE ANY
OF THE CASCADE RIVERS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...A CDFNT OVER THE INTERIOR WILL CONT MOVING SLOWLY E.
THIS FRONT WILL BE E OF THE CASCADES BY 0600 UTC THU. CONTD LOW
LEVEL SLY FLOW. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE OVER THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON FOR A RISK OF ISOLD TSTMS. CONTD STRONG SW FLOW
ALOFT. THE MTNS WILL BE OBSCD.

MEANWHILE...EXPECT AREAS OF CIGS NEAR 1K FT ALONG WITH VSBYS IN THE
2-4SM RANGE DUE TO RAIN AND/OR FOG THIS MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS OF CIGS IN THE 2-3K FT
RANGE ANTICIPATED. THERE WILL ALSO BE AREAS OF VSBYS IN THE 3-5SM
RANGE WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON.

KSEA...EXPECT OCNL CIGS IN THE 2-3K FT RANGE TODAY. VSBYS WILL
LIKELY LOWER INTO THE 4-6SM RANGE WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIP. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY SLY AT 6-12 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...A SERIES OF SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THU. THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A RISK OF
TSTMS. MEANWHILE...LOWER PRES OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND HIGH PRES
OVER CA WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THU. THE FLOW WILL
BECOME OFFSHORE OR EASTERLY ON FRI IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE OREGON WATERS FROM THE SW.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON
      COUNTY.
     FLOOD WATCH MASON COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT
      THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR IN EFFECT TIL 6 AM
      THURSDAY FOR THE GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KOTX 221220
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
520 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Through Wednesday night, a very moist frontal boundary will
produce heavy precipitation for the Cascades and possibly the
mountains of North Idaho. Though the heavy rains end Thursday
Night, the pattern will continue to be active into early next
week. This includes the potential for widespread rain Friday into
Saturday, then again Monday into  Tuesday, as moisture associated
with former typhoons makes its way toward the Pacific Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tonight...Wet period awaits most of the Inland Northwest
during this period. The latest satellite images are showing a
very moist occluded front extending from deep upper level low over
the eastern Gulf of Alaska south-southwest through Vancouver
Island and the Olympic Peninsula. The blended precipitable water
product shows a very impressive atmospheric river streaming from
west of the Dateline all the way to the Washington coast.
Precipitable water values within this front ranged from 1 to 1.3
inches...which is about 2 standard deviations above normal for
this time of year. This moisture will eventually push east of the
Cascades...but the question is when. Over the past several hours
the eastward progression of the front has slowed...likely in
response to a shortwave trough forming near 42/135. This should
delay the onset of the precipitation in the lee of the Cascades.
00Z models aren`t depicting this slowing trend well....however the
new 06z NAM is doing much better. Through late morning...most of
the precipitation will occur west of a line from Colville .to
Rtzville.. By late afternoon...that line will extend from Kellogg
to the Blue Mountains. Once the precipitation begins...it will
continue through much of the night for most of the night as low-
level moisture transport and isentropic ascent look very
formidable. The only drying trend during this period will occur
after midnight in the lee of the Cascades...as the mid-level flow
trends to the west and the precipitable water plume shifts south
and east of that area. QPF amounts during this period will be
impressive with the heaviest amounts expected over the northern
Cascades. Values ranging from 1-1.5 inches will be possible...with
amounts around an inch extending across the northern mountains of
Washington. Despite the lofty precipitation amounts...hydro
problems if any...will be minor due to relatively dry in situ
conditions and low river levels...combined with a slow but steady
stratiform precipitation regime (as opposed to a rapid convective
event). If problems were to occur...it would likely be near the
Cascade burn scars. We will continue to issue hydrological
statements to address this issue. The location with the lightest
precipitation amounts will be over the LC Valley...due the the
late onset of the precipitation (last area for front to arrive)
and persistent southerly downslope flow off the Blues.

Aside from the widespread threat of precipitation...we are looking
at another warm and perhaps windy day. Until the front and
precipitation arrives...most of the area will be subject to
moderate south-southeast winds...combined with warm 850 mb
temperatures. Between late afternoon and early evening...850 mb
temps surge above 10c over the SE quarter of Washington and the
southern Idaho Panhandle. Enhanced mixing potential will allow
temperatures to surge into the mid to upper 60s (if not slightly
warmer) across SE Washington and adjacent portions of Idaho.
Meanwhile temperatures will be significantly cooler across the NW
portions of the forecast area. With the rain likely to develop
early...the impacts of diurnal heating will be largely mitigated.
Highs in these areas won`t be much warmer than the current
temperatures which suggests readings in the mid 50s. fx

Thurs through Sat: For Thurs, we slowly progressed the frontal
boundary and associated rich moisture plume through southeast Wa
and the Cntrl Idaho Panhandle. The tricky part will be determining
how far east across the Cascades and Upper Columbia Basin to bring
the post-frontal dry slot as well as steep mid-level lapse rates.
It`s possible we`ll see some cloud breaks Thurs afternoon that
would help to enhance any sfc-based instability and produce
localized heavier embedded showers. This will be especially true
for the Cascades as an inbound vort max reaches NW Wa by
afternoon. We increased winds as well for Thurs as the vertical
profile becomes nearly unidirectional from the SW in the dry slot,
with 850mb winds around 30 kts. Once the vort max moves into Srn
BC, rapidly rising hts aloft ahead of a warm front over Oregon
will help to quickly end the persistent heavy pcpn threat Thurs
Nt. Concerning this warm front, we made some significant changes
to the timing of the pcpn as this front moves north across Ern Wa.
This includes slowing down the onset of light rain, keeping Nrn
Wa and much of the N Idaho Panhandle near BC dry for Fri.bz

Sunday through Wednesday: The models are indicating a dry period
on Sunday followed by an extended period of rainshowers through
midweek with multiple systems passing through the region. The
temperatures are expected to be near the season normals with highs
around mid 50s and lows around 40. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Focus for this period will center on strong low-level
warm air and moisture advection ahead of front currently on the WA
Coast. As the best advection heads east of the Cascades...all
sites will see an increasing and lowering cloud trend as well as
an increasing chance of rain. The rain will become widespread
before 18z at MWH and EAT...and hold off closer to 00z or a little
later for the remaining sites. The last location expected to see
rain is LWS due to downslope southerly winds. Generally
speaking...strong warm air advection cases do not lead to
widespread IFR cigs however brief MVFR cigs will be
possible...especially for EAT and MWH later today and the GEG-COE
corridor later this evening. Threat was too small to list as a
prevailing condition in forecast. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  48  59  43  56  44 /  60 100  50  20  40  60
Coeur d`Alene  53  45  58  41  55  41 /  40 100  70  30  40  60
Pullman        63  47  59  45  58  47 /  30  80  60  30  50  50
Lewiston       67  51  63  48  61  46 /  10  40  60  40  60  30
Colville       50  45  57  41  59  41 / 100 100  60  30  20  60
Sandpoint      54  43  55  38  57  38 /  60 100  90  50  20  60
Kellogg        53  45  54  41  53  42 /  20  90  80  60  40  60
Moses Lake     60  48  64  43  58  45 /  90  90  20  10  50  60
Wenatchee      56  48  61  44  55  47 / 100 100  30  10  60  70
Omak           57  46  59  40  58  44 / 100 100  40  20  20  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





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