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000
FXUS66 KOTX 030302
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
702 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will pass through this evening, with potential
for scattered snow showers along with breezy conditions across
much of the region. The snow shower threat and winds abate
overnight into Tuesday.  Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of the
week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow for
the end of the week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updates to zones and grids to better address the localized snow
accumulations associated with the convective showers moving south
at about 25 mph through Eastern Washington and parts of North
Idaho right now. They are all associated with peak heating of the
evening and a shortwave dropping down through the area which is
quite visible as a small localized area of rotation on the water
vapor channel. Some webcams and spotters have noted they have
received up to two inches of snow under the more heavier snow
showers and/or have been hit with more than one snow shower this
evening. Zones have better wording to address this and note that
the trend is for all the convective snow showers to decrease
overnight. Potential additional impacts brought about by this snow
would be refreezing of any lingering snowmelt on roadways tonight
which could result in slick conditions later on tonight and into
Tuesday morning.  /Pelatti


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A shortwave will drop south across the east WA/north ID
between 00-06Z, with scattered snow showers. With unstable lapses
accompanying these some of these could be locally heavy, producing
brief reductions to MVFR conditions, especially around
GEG/SFF/COE. They will be more isolated toward PUW/LWS. The threat
will wane after 03-04Z over most locations, but could some
potential may linger through 08Z. EAT/MWH will mainly dry, with
only the off chance of a flurry. Otherwise look for VFR conditions
here. Expect breezy conditions around 15 to 25kts, with gusts to
30 around MWH. Other breezy conditions are expected at EAT, as
well as GEG to COE with the incoming shortwave. However speeds
will be a bit less, at 10 to 20kts. Speeds in general will abate
after 08-11Z. /J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        18  37  17  43  23  48 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  16  37  14  43  21  49 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        18  37  17  43  26  51 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       26  40  20  47  27  54 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       21  41  16  45  22  50 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      17  34  12  41  21  44 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        17  32  13  40  22  45 /  70   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     22  44  20  48  26  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      27  45  20  50  29  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           22  45  19  47  24  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 022343
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
343 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will pass through this evening, with potential
for scattered snow showers along with breezy conditions across
much of the region. The snow shower threat and winds abate
overnight into Tuesday.  Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of the
week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow for
the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tuesday: The snow shower threat will dissipate
across the Inland NW tonight on a breezy north wind, leading to a
drier and colder Tuesday. This evening a mid-level shortwave is
tracking across the eastern third of WA and north ID; it is
projected to sag toward central and southern ID late this evening
into the overnight. As that shortwave tracks by us it is
accompanied by a pool of colder 500mb temperatures, in the -30 to
-35 C range. This leads to some unstable lapse rates and so the
accompanying potential for convective showers. Furthermore, a
deformation axis/surface trough lingers across the eastern third
of WA through the night, though it does lose some of its
resolution overnight.

All of this means a threat of scattered to locally numerous snow
showers through, especially early this evening, between 00-04Z (4
to 8 PM), before the drier northerly flow take hold and the
precipitation threat begins to wind down. The deformation
axis/trough itself should help to focus those showers and right
now that been somewhat consistently across northeast mountain and
Spokane/C`dA area.

The convective nature of the system makes pinning down the
precise snow accumulations difficult in the valleys. Values could
range from nothing or a trace to as much as 1 inch or so under the
heaviest bands. The road and air temperatures, however, should
keep the snow from sticking to the roads and other surfaces
initially. However later this evening and overnight any
precipitation that falls would have every opportunity to freeze on
surface. How much of an impact that would have later this evening
and for the Tuesday morning commute is less certain, because areas
that would see little to no accumulation may have no problems but
if you happen to be that spot that gets more precipitation you be
more prone to slick spots. As for the mountains, snow amounts
could be in the 1 to 3 inch range, when all is said and done for
the entire system, with isolated higher amounts.

Late this evening and overnight, the main shower threat is
expected to shift toward the Central Panhandle and Camas Prairie,
and possibly the Blues. A secondary threat will linger within the
northeastern mountains, with a weak secondary wave dropping by and
the weakening deformation axis in the region. Tuesday looks mainly
dry and partly cloudy to clear.

Winds will be an issue this evening with the shortwave pushing in
coupling with a tightening pressure gradients. The strongest winds
are expected through the Okanogan Valley, where some channeling is
expected. However speeds will also be up across the remainder of
eastern WA and the north ID valleys. On average we are looking for
10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. However in the Okanogan
Valley speeds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are possible.
Going into the overnight and Tuesday the gradients begin to
slacken and the atmosphere decouples, so overall speeds should
begin to abate.

Temperatures tonight are expected to drop below normal thanks to
the push of colder, drier air from the north. Values could be some
10 or so degrees below average. This carries into Tuesday
afternoon with highs expected to remain below normal by 5 to 10
degrees. /J. Cote`

Tuesday night through Monday: A ridge of high pressure will be the
dominate weather feature through the period delivering mostly dry
conditions and a gradual warming trend. The only exception is
within the Friday time-frame. Models suggest the ridge will
flatten enough allowing a weak disturbance to skirt the
International Border before dropping southeast down the MT/ID
border. The ECMWF is an outlier at this time indicating the
potential for a tenth or so of liquid while the GFS/Canadian/Ensemble
Means only bring through trace amounts of liquid. Needless to say,
confidence is low regarding this feature and precipitation chances
but this looks to be the only chance for precipitation through
Monday. Temperatures will start off cool with 850mb temperatures
on the order of -5C but warm near 3-8C by the weekend. This will
equate to warming temperatures each day with temperatures expected
to warm well above normal by the weekend.

There are signs in the extended models that a large scale pattern
change will be possible which features the reversal of the Eastern
US trough and Western Ridge. There are some timing differences but
looks to occur around mid to late next week. Climate Prediction
Center looks to favor this change as well with the 8-14 day
outlook predicting the potential for warmer and wetter conditions
on the West Coast... conducive of the incoming trof and
mild/wetter southwest flow. /sb



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A shortwave will drop south across the east WA/north ID
between 00-06Z, with scattered snow showers. With unstable lapses
accompanying these some of these could be locally heavy, producing
brief reductions to MVFR conditions, especially around
GEG/SFF/COE. They will be more isolated toward PUW/LWS. The threat
will wane after 03-04Z over most locations, but could some
potential may linger through 08Z. EAT/MWH will mainly dry, with
only the off chance of a flurry. Otherwise look for VFR conditions
here. Expect breezy conditions around 15 to 25kts, with gusts to
30 around MWH. Other breezy conditions are expected at EAT, as
well as GEG to COE with the incoming shortwave. However speeds
will be a bit less, at 10 to 20kts. Speeds in general will abate
after 08-11Z. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        18  37  17  43  23  48 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  16  37  14  43  21  49 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        18  37  17  43  26  51 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       26  40  20  47  27  54 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       21  41  16  45  22  50 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      17  34  12  41  21  44 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        17  32  13  40  22  45 /  70   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     22  44  20  48  26  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      27  45  20  50  29  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           22  45  19  47  24  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 022343
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
343 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will pass through this evening, with potential
for scattered snow showers along with breezy conditions across
much of the region. The snow shower threat and winds abate
overnight into Tuesday.  Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of the
week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow for
the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tuesday: The snow shower threat will dissipate
across the Inland NW tonight on a breezy north wind, leading to a
drier and colder Tuesday. This evening a mid-level shortwave is
tracking across the eastern third of WA and north ID; it is
projected to sag toward central and southern ID late this evening
into the overnight. As that shortwave tracks by us it is
accompanied by a pool of colder 500mb temperatures, in the -30 to
-35 C range. This leads to some unstable lapse rates and so the
accompanying potential for convective showers. Furthermore, a
deformation axis/surface trough lingers across the eastern third
of WA through the night, though it does lose some of its
resolution overnight.

All of this means a threat of scattered to locally numerous snow
showers through, especially early this evening, between 00-04Z (4
to 8 PM), before the drier northerly flow take hold and the
precipitation threat begins to wind down. The deformation
axis/trough itself should help to focus those showers and right
now that been somewhat consistently across northeast mountain and
Spokane/C`dA area.

The convective nature of the system makes pinning down the
precise snow accumulations difficult in the valleys. Values could
range from nothing or a trace to as much as 1 inch or so under the
heaviest bands. The road and air temperatures, however, should
keep the snow from sticking to the roads and other surfaces
initially. However later this evening and overnight any
precipitation that falls would have every opportunity to freeze on
surface. How much of an impact that would have later this evening
and for the Tuesday morning commute is less certain, because areas
that would see little to no accumulation may have no problems but
if you happen to be that spot that gets more precipitation you be
more prone to slick spots. As for the mountains, snow amounts
could be in the 1 to 3 inch range, when all is said and done for
the entire system, with isolated higher amounts.

Late this evening and overnight, the main shower threat is
expected to shift toward the Central Panhandle and Camas Prairie,
and possibly the Blues. A secondary threat will linger within the
northeastern mountains, with a weak secondary wave dropping by and
the weakening deformation axis in the region. Tuesday looks mainly
dry and partly cloudy to clear.

Winds will be an issue this evening with the shortwave pushing in
coupling with a tightening pressure gradients. The strongest winds
are expected through the Okanogan Valley, where some channeling is
expected. However speeds will also be up across the remainder of
eastern WA and the north ID valleys. On average we are looking for
10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. However in the Okanogan
Valley speeds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are possible.
Going into the overnight and Tuesday the gradients begin to
slacken and the atmosphere decouples, so overall speeds should
begin to abate.

Temperatures tonight are expected to drop below normal thanks to
the push of colder, drier air from the north. Values could be some
10 or so degrees below average. This carries into Tuesday
afternoon with highs expected to remain below normal by 5 to 10
degrees. /J. Cote`

Tuesday night through Monday: A ridge of high pressure will be the
dominate weather feature through the period delivering mostly dry
conditions and a gradual warming trend. The only exception is
within the Friday time-frame. Models suggest the ridge will
flatten enough allowing a weak disturbance to skirt the
International Border before dropping southeast down the MT/ID
border. The ECMWF is an outlier at this time indicating the
potential for a tenth or so of liquid while the GFS/Canadian/Ensemble
Means only bring through trace amounts of liquid. Needless to say,
confidence is low regarding this feature and precipitation chances
but this looks to be the only chance for precipitation through
Monday. Temperatures will start off cool with 850mb temperatures
on the order of -5C but warm near 3-8C by the weekend. This will
equate to warming temperatures each day with temperatures expected
to warm well above normal by the weekend.

There are signs in the extended models that a large scale pattern
change will be possible which features the reversal of the Eastern
US trough and Western Ridge. There are some timing differences but
looks to occur around mid to late next week. Climate Prediction
Center looks to favor this change as well with the 8-14 day
outlook predicting the potential for warmer and wetter conditions
on the West Coast... conducive of the incoming trof and
mild/wetter southwest flow. /sb



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A shortwave will drop south across the east WA/north ID
between 00-06Z, with scattered snow showers. With unstable lapses
accompanying these some of these could be locally heavy, producing
brief reductions to MVFR conditions, especially around
GEG/SFF/COE. They will be more isolated toward PUW/LWS. The threat
will wane after 03-04Z over most locations, but could some
potential may linger through 08Z. EAT/MWH will mainly dry, with
only the off chance of a flurry. Otherwise look for VFR conditions
here. Expect breezy conditions around 15 to 25kts, with gusts to
30 around MWH. Other breezy conditions are expected at EAT, as
well as GEG to COE with the incoming shortwave. However speeds
will be a bit less, at 10 to 20kts. Speeds in general will abate
after 08-11Z. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        18  37  17  43  23  48 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  16  37  14  43  21  49 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        18  37  17  43  26  51 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       26  40  20  47  27  54 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       21  41  16  45  22  50 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      17  34  12  41  21  44 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        17  32  13  40  22  45 /  70   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     22  44  20  48  26  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      27  45  20  50  29  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           22  45  19  47  24  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 022343
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
343 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will pass through this evening, with potential
for scattered snow showers along with breezy conditions across
much of the region. The snow shower threat and winds abate
overnight into Tuesday.  Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of the
week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow for
the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tuesday: The snow shower threat will dissipate
across the Inland NW tonight on a breezy north wind, leading to a
drier and colder Tuesday. This evening a mid-level shortwave is
tracking across the eastern third of WA and north ID; it is
projected to sag toward central and southern ID late this evening
into the overnight. As that shortwave tracks by us it is
accompanied by a pool of colder 500mb temperatures, in the -30 to
-35 C range. This leads to some unstable lapse rates and so the
accompanying potential for convective showers. Furthermore, a
deformation axis/surface trough lingers across the eastern third
of WA through the night, though it does lose some of its
resolution overnight.

All of this means a threat of scattered to locally numerous snow
showers through, especially early this evening, between 00-04Z (4
to 8 PM), before the drier northerly flow take hold and the
precipitation threat begins to wind down. The deformation
axis/trough itself should help to focus those showers and right
now that been somewhat consistently across northeast mountain and
Spokane/C`dA area.

The convective nature of the system makes pinning down the
precise snow accumulations difficult in the valleys. Values could
range from nothing or a trace to as much as 1 inch or so under the
heaviest bands. The road and air temperatures, however, should
keep the snow from sticking to the roads and other surfaces
initially. However later this evening and overnight any
precipitation that falls would have every opportunity to freeze on
surface. How much of an impact that would have later this evening
and for the Tuesday morning commute is less certain, because areas
that would see little to no accumulation may have no problems but
if you happen to be that spot that gets more precipitation you be
more prone to slick spots. As for the mountains, snow amounts
could be in the 1 to 3 inch range, when all is said and done for
the entire system, with isolated higher amounts.

Late this evening and overnight, the main shower threat is
expected to shift toward the Central Panhandle and Camas Prairie,
and possibly the Blues. A secondary threat will linger within the
northeastern mountains, with a weak secondary wave dropping by and
the weakening deformation axis in the region. Tuesday looks mainly
dry and partly cloudy to clear.

Winds will be an issue this evening with the shortwave pushing in
coupling with a tightening pressure gradients. The strongest winds
are expected through the Okanogan Valley, where some channeling is
expected. However speeds will also be up across the remainder of
eastern WA and the north ID valleys. On average we are looking for
10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. However in the Okanogan
Valley speeds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are possible.
Going into the overnight and Tuesday the gradients begin to
slacken and the atmosphere decouples, so overall speeds should
begin to abate.

Temperatures tonight are expected to drop below normal thanks to
the push of colder, drier air from the north. Values could be some
10 or so degrees below average. This carries into Tuesday
afternoon with highs expected to remain below normal by 5 to 10
degrees. /J. Cote`

Tuesday night through Monday: A ridge of high pressure will be the
dominate weather feature through the period delivering mostly dry
conditions and a gradual warming trend. The only exception is
within the Friday time-frame. Models suggest the ridge will
flatten enough allowing a weak disturbance to skirt the
International Border before dropping southeast down the MT/ID
border. The ECMWF is an outlier at this time indicating the
potential for a tenth or so of liquid while the GFS/Canadian/Ensemble
Means only bring through trace amounts of liquid. Needless to say,
confidence is low regarding this feature and precipitation chances
but this looks to be the only chance for precipitation through
Monday. Temperatures will start off cool with 850mb temperatures
on the order of -5C but warm near 3-8C by the weekend. This will
equate to warming temperatures each day with temperatures expected
to warm well above normal by the weekend.

There are signs in the extended models that a large scale pattern
change will be possible which features the reversal of the Eastern
US trough and Western Ridge. There are some timing differences but
looks to occur around mid to late next week. Climate Prediction
Center looks to favor this change as well with the 8-14 day
outlook predicting the potential for warmer and wetter conditions
on the West Coast... conducive of the incoming trof and
mild/wetter southwest flow. /sb



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A shortwave will drop south across the east WA/north ID
between 00-06Z, with scattered snow showers. With unstable lapses
accompanying these some of these could be locally heavy, producing
brief reductions to MVFR conditions, especially around
GEG/SFF/COE. They will be more isolated toward PUW/LWS. The threat
will wane after 03-04Z over most locations, but could some
potential may linger through 08Z. EAT/MWH will mainly dry, with
only the off chance of a flurry. Otherwise look for VFR conditions
here. Expect breezy conditions around 15 to 25kts, with gusts to
30 around MWH. Other breezy conditions are expected at EAT, as
well as GEG to COE with the incoming shortwave. However speeds
will be a bit less, at 10 to 20kts. Speeds in general will abate
after 08-11Z. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        18  37  17  43  23  48 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  16  37  14  43  21  49 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        18  37  17  43  26  51 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       26  40  20  47  27  54 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       21  41  16  45  22  50 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      17  34  12  41  21  44 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        17  32  13  40  22  45 /  70   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     22  44  20  48  26  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      27  45  20  50  29  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           22  45  19  47  24  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 022343
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
343 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will pass through this evening, with potential
for scattered snow showers along with breezy conditions across
much of the region. The snow shower threat and winds abate
overnight into Tuesday.  Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of the
week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow for
the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tuesday: The snow shower threat will dissipate
across the Inland NW tonight on a breezy north wind, leading to a
drier and colder Tuesday. This evening a mid-level shortwave is
tracking across the eastern third of WA and north ID; it is
projected to sag toward central and southern ID late this evening
into the overnight. As that shortwave tracks by us it is
accompanied by a pool of colder 500mb temperatures, in the -30 to
-35 C range. This leads to some unstable lapse rates and so the
accompanying potential for convective showers. Furthermore, a
deformation axis/surface trough lingers across the eastern third
of WA through the night, though it does lose some of its
resolution overnight.

All of this means a threat of scattered to locally numerous snow
showers through, especially early this evening, between 00-04Z (4
to 8 PM), before the drier northerly flow take hold and the
precipitation threat begins to wind down. The deformation
axis/trough itself should help to focus those showers and right
now that been somewhat consistently across northeast mountain and
Spokane/C`dA area.

The convective nature of the system makes pinning down the
precise snow accumulations difficult in the valleys. Values could
range from nothing or a trace to as much as 1 inch or so under the
heaviest bands. The road and air temperatures, however, should
keep the snow from sticking to the roads and other surfaces
initially. However later this evening and overnight any
precipitation that falls would have every opportunity to freeze on
surface. How much of an impact that would have later this evening
and for the Tuesday morning commute is less certain, because areas
that would see little to no accumulation may have no problems but
if you happen to be that spot that gets more precipitation you be
more prone to slick spots. As for the mountains, snow amounts
could be in the 1 to 3 inch range, when all is said and done for
the entire system, with isolated higher amounts.

Late this evening and overnight, the main shower threat is
expected to shift toward the Central Panhandle and Camas Prairie,
and possibly the Blues. A secondary threat will linger within the
northeastern mountains, with a weak secondary wave dropping by and
the weakening deformation axis in the region. Tuesday looks mainly
dry and partly cloudy to clear.

Winds will be an issue this evening with the shortwave pushing in
coupling with a tightening pressure gradients. The strongest winds
are expected through the Okanogan Valley, where some channeling is
expected. However speeds will also be up across the remainder of
eastern WA and the north ID valleys. On average we are looking for
10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. However in the Okanogan
Valley speeds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are possible.
Going into the overnight and Tuesday the gradients begin to
slacken and the atmosphere decouples, so overall speeds should
begin to abate.

Temperatures tonight are expected to drop below normal thanks to
the push of colder, drier air from the north. Values could be some
10 or so degrees below average. This carries into Tuesday
afternoon with highs expected to remain below normal by 5 to 10
degrees. /J. Cote`

Tuesday night through Monday: A ridge of high pressure will be the
dominate weather feature through the period delivering mostly dry
conditions and a gradual warming trend. The only exception is
within the Friday time-frame. Models suggest the ridge will
flatten enough allowing a weak disturbance to skirt the
International Border before dropping southeast down the MT/ID
border. The ECMWF is an outlier at this time indicating the
potential for a tenth or so of liquid while the GFS/Canadian/Ensemble
Means only bring through trace amounts of liquid. Needless to say,
confidence is low regarding this feature and precipitation chances
but this looks to be the only chance for precipitation through
Monday. Temperatures will start off cool with 850mb temperatures
on the order of -5C but warm near 3-8C by the weekend. This will
equate to warming temperatures each day with temperatures expected
to warm well above normal by the weekend.

There are signs in the extended models that a large scale pattern
change will be possible which features the reversal of the Eastern
US trough and Western Ridge. There are some timing differences but
looks to occur around mid to late next week. Climate Prediction
Center looks to favor this change as well with the 8-14 day
outlook predicting the potential for warmer and wetter conditions
on the West Coast... conducive of the incoming trof and
mild/wetter southwest flow. /sb



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A shortwave will drop south across the east WA/north ID
between 00-06Z, with scattered snow showers. With unstable lapses
accompanying these some of these could be locally heavy, producing
brief reductions to MVFR conditions, especially around
GEG/SFF/COE. They will be more isolated toward PUW/LWS. The threat
will wane after 03-04Z over most locations, but could some
potential may linger through 08Z. EAT/MWH will mainly dry, with
only the off chance of a flurry. Otherwise look for VFR conditions
here. Expect breezy conditions around 15 to 25kts, with gusts to
30 around MWH. Other breezy conditions are expected at EAT, as
well as GEG to COE with the incoming shortwave. However speeds
will be a bit less, at 10 to 20kts. Speeds in general will abate
after 08-11Z. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        18  37  17  43  23  48 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  16  37  14  43  21  49 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        18  37  17  43  26  51 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       26  40  20  47  27  54 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       21  41  16  45  22  50 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      17  34  12  41  21  44 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        17  32  13  40  22  45 /  70   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     22  44  20  48  26  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      27  45  20  50  29  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           22  45  19  47  24  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 022343
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
343 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will pass through this evening, with potential
for scattered snow showers along with breezy conditions across
much of the region. The snow shower threat and winds abate
overnight into Tuesday.  Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of the
week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow for
the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tuesday: The snow shower threat will dissipate
across the Inland NW tonight on a breezy north wind, leading to a
drier and colder Tuesday. This evening a mid-level shortwave is
tracking across the eastern third of WA and north ID; it is
projected to sag toward central and southern ID late this evening
into the overnight. As that shortwave tracks by us it is
accompanied by a pool of colder 500mb temperatures, in the -30 to
-35 C range. This leads to some unstable lapse rates and so the
accompanying potential for convective showers. Furthermore, a
deformation axis/surface trough lingers across the eastern third
of WA through the night, though it does lose some of its
resolution overnight.

All of this means a threat of scattered to locally numerous snow
showers through, especially early this evening, between 00-04Z (4
to 8 PM), before the drier northerly flow take hold and the
precipitation threat begins to wind down. The deformation
axis/trough itself should help to focus those showers and right
now that been somewhat consistently across northeast mountain and
Spokane/C`dA area.

The convective nature of the system makes pinning down the
precise snow accumulations difficult in the valleys. Values could
range from nothing or a trace to as much as 1 inch or so under the
heaviest bands. The road and air temperatures, however, should
keep the snow from sticking to the roads and other surfaces
initially. However later this evening and overnight any
precipitation that falls would have every opportunity to freeze on
surface. How much of an impact that would have later this evening
and for the Tuesday morning commute is less certain, because areas
that would see little to no accumulation may have no problems but
if you happen to be that spot that gets more precipitation you be
more prone to slick spots. As for the mountains, snow amounts
could be in the 1 to 3 inch range, when all is said and done for
the entire system, with isolated higher amounts.

Late this evening and overnight, the main shower threat is
expected to shift toward the Central Panhandle and Camas Prairie,
and possibly the Blues. A secondary threat will linger within the
northeastern mountains, with a weak secondary wave dropping by and
the weakening deformation axis in the region. Tuesday looks mainly
dry and partly cloudy to clear.

Winds will be an issue this evening with the shortwave pushing in
coupling with a tightening pressure gradients. The strongest winds
are expected through the Okanogan Valley, where some channeling is
expected. However speeds will also be up across the remainder of
eastern WA and the north ID valleys. On average we are looking for
10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. However in the Okanogan
Valley speeds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are possible.
Going into the overnight and Tuesday the gradients begin to
slacken and the atmosphere decouples, so overall speeds should
begin to abate.

Temperatures tonight are expected to drop below normal thanks to
the push of colder, drier air from the north. Values could be some
10 or so degrees below average. This carries into Tuesday
afternoon with highs expected to remain below normal by 5 to 10
degrees. /J. Cote`

Tuesday night through Monday: A ridge of high pressure will be the
dominate weather feature through the period delivering mostly dry
conditions and a gradual warming trend. The only exception is
within the Friday time-frame. Models suggest the ridge will
flatten enough allowing a weak disturbance to skirt the
International Border before dropping southeast down the MT/ID
border. The ECMWF is an outlier at this time indicating the
potential for a tenth or so of liquid while the GFS/Canadian/Ensemble
Means only bring through trace amounts of liquid. Needless to say,
confidence is low regarding this feature and precipitation chances
but this looks to be the only chance for precipitation through
Monday. Temperatures will start off cool with 850mb temperatures
on the order of -5C but warm near 3-8C by the weekend. This will
equate to warming temperatures each day with temperatures expected
to warm well above normal by the weekend.

There are signs in the extended models that a large scale pattern
change will be possible which features the reversal of the Eastern
US trough and Western Ridge. There are some timing differences but
looks to occur around mid to late next week. Climate Prediction
Center looks to favor this change as well with the 8-14 day
outlook predicting the potential for warmer and wetter conditions
on the West Coast... conducive of the incoming trof and
mild/wetter southwest flow. /sb



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A shortwave will drop south across the east WA/north ID
between 00-06Z, with scattered snow showers. With unstable lapses
accompanying these some of these could be locally heavy, producing
brief reductions to MVFR conditions, especially around
GEG/SFF/COE. They will be more isolated toward PUW/LWS. The threat
will wane after 03-04Z over most locations, but could some
potential may linger through 08Z. EAT/MWH will mainly dry, with
only the off chance of a flurry. Otherwise look for VFR conditions
here. Expect breezy conditions around 15 to 25kts, with gusts to
30 around MWH. Other breezy conditions are expected at EAT, as
well as GEG to COE with the incoming shortwave. However speeds
will be a bit less, at 10 to 20kts. Speeds in general will abate
after 08-11Z. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        18  37  17  43  23  48 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  16  37  14  43  21  49 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        18  37  17  43  26  51 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       26  40  20  47  27  54 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       21  41  16  45  22  50 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      17  34  12  41  21  44 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        17  32  13  40  22  45 /  70   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     22  44  20  48  26  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      27  45  20  50  29  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           22  45  19  47  24  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 022343
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
343 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will pass through this evening, with potential
for scattered snow showers along with breezy conditions across
much of the region. The snow shower threat and winds abate
overnight into Tuesday.  Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of the
week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow for
the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tuesday: The snow shower threat will dissipate
across the Inland NW tonight on a breezy north wind, leading to a
drier and colder Tuesday. This evening a mid-level shortwave is
tracking across the eastern third of WA and north ID; it is
projected to sag toward central and southern ID late this evening
into the overnight. As that shortwave tracks by us it is
accompanied by a pool of colder 500mb temperatures, in the -30 to
-35 C range. This leads to some unstable lapse rates and so the
accompanying potential for convective showers. Furthermore, a
deformation axis/surface trough lingers across the eastern third
of WA through the night, though it does lose some of its
resolution overnight.

All of this means a threat of scattered to locally numerous snow
showers through, especially early this evening, between 00-04Z (4
to 8 PM), before the drier northerly flow take hold and the
precipitation threat begins to wind down. The deformation
axis/trough itself should help to focus those showers and right
now that been somewhat consistently across northeast mountain and
Spokane/C`dA area.

The convective nature of the system makes pinning down the
precise snow accumulations difficult in the valleys. Values could
range from nothing or a trace to as much as 1 inch or so under the
heaviest bands. The road and air temperatures, however, should
keep the snow from sticking to the roads and other surfaces
initially. However later this evening and overnight any
precipitation that falls would have every opportunity to freeze on
surface. How much of an impact that would have later this evening
and for the Tuesday morning commute is less certain, because areas
that would see little to no accumulation may have no problems but
if you happen to be that spot that gets more precipitation you be
more prone to slick spots. As for the mountains, snow amounts
could be in the 1 to 3 inch range, when all is said and done for
the entire system, with isolated higher amounts.

Late this evening and overnight, the main shower threat is
expected to shift toward the Central Panhandle and Camas Prairie,
and possibly the Blues. A secondary threat will linger within the
northeastern mountains, with a weak secondary wave dropping by and
the weakening deformation axis in the region. Tuesday looks mainly
dry and partly cloudy to clear.

Winds will be an issue this evening with the shortwave pushing in
coupling with a tightening pressure gradients. The strongest winds
are expected through the Okanogan Valley, where some channeling is
expected. However speeds will also be up across the remainder of
eastern WA and the north ID valleys. On average we are looking for
10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. However in the Okanogan
Valley speeds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are possible.
Going into the overnight and Tuesday the gradients begin to
slacken and the atmosphere decouples, so overall speeds should
begin to abate.

Temperatures tonight are expected to drop below normal thanks to
the push of colder, drier air from the north. Values could be some
10 or so degrees below average. This carries into Tuesday
afternoon with highs expected to remain below normal by 5 to 10
degrees. /J. Cote`

Tuesday night through Monday: A ridge of high pressure will be the
dominate weather feature through the period delivering mostly dry
conditions and a gradual warming trend. The only exception is
within the Friday time-frame. Models suggest the ridge will
flatten enough allowing a weak disturbance to skirt the
International Border before dropping southeast down the MT/ID
border. The ECMWF is an outlier at this time indicating the
potential for a tenth or so of liquid while the GFS/Canadian/Ensemble
Means only bring through trace amounts of liquid. Needless to say,
confidence is low regarding this feature and precipitation chances
but this looks to be the only chance for precipitation through
Monday. Temperatures will start off cool with 850mb temperatures
on the order of -5C but warm near 3-8C by the weekend. This will
equate to warming temperatures each day with temperatures expected
to warm well above normal by the weekend.

There are signs in the extended models that a large scale pattern
change will be possible which features the reversal of the Eastern
US trough and Western Ridge. There are some timing differences but
looks to occur around mid to late next week. Climate Prediction
Center looks to favor this change as well with the 8-14 day
outlook predicting the potential for warmer and wetter conditions
on the West Coast... conducive of the incoming trof and
mild/wetter southwest flow. /sb



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A shortwave will drop south across the east WA/north ID
between 00-06Z, with scattered snow showers. With unstable lapses
accompanying these some of these could be locally heavy, producing
brief reductions to MVFR conditions, especially around
GEG/SFF/COE. They will be more isolated toward PUW/LWS. The threat
will wane after 03-04Z over most locations, but could some
potential may linger through 08Z. EAT/MWH will mainly dry, with
only the off chance of a flurry. Otherwise look for VFR conditions
here. Expect breezy conditions around 15 to 25kts, with gusts to
30 around MWH. Other breezy conditions are expected at EAT, as
well as GEG to COE with the incoming shortwave. However speeds
will be a bit less, at 10 to 20kts. Speeds in general will abate
after 08-11Z. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        18  37  17  43  23  48 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  16  37  14  43  21  49 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        18  37  17  43  26  51 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       26  40  20  47  27  54 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       21  41  16  45  22  50 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      17  34  12  41  21  44 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        17  32  13  40  22  45 /  70   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     22  44  20  48  26  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      27  45  20  50  29  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           22  45  19  47  24  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 022343
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
343 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will pass through this evening, with potential
for scattered snow showers along with breezy conditions across
much of the region. The snow shower threat and winds abate
overnight into Tuesday.  Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of the
week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow for
the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tuesday: The snow shower threat will dissipate
across the Inland NW tonight on a breezy north wind, leading to a
drier and colder Tuesday. This evening a mid-level shortwave is
tracking across the eastern third of WA and north ID; it is
projected to sag toward central and southern ID late this evening
into the overnight. As that shortwave tracks by us it is
accompanied by a pool of colder 500mb temperatures, in the -30 to
-35 C range. This leads to some unstable lapse rates and so the
accompanying potential for convective showers. Furthermore, a
deformation axis/surface trough lingers across the eastern third
of WA through the night, though it does lose some of its
resolution overnight.

All of this means a threat of scattered to locally numerous snow
showers through, especially early this evening, between 00-04Z (4
to 8 PM), before the drier northerly flow take hold and the
precipitation threat begins to wind down. The deformation
axis/trough itself should help to focus those showers and right
now that been somewhat consistently across northeast mountain and
Spokane/C`dA area.

The convective nature of the system makes pinning down the
precise snow accumulations difficult in the valleys. Values could
range from nothing or a trace to as much as 1 inch or so under the
heaviest bands. The road and air temperatures, however, should
keep the snow from sticking to the roads and other surfaces
initially. However later this evening and overnight any
precipitation that falls would have every opportunity to freeze on
surface. How much of an impact that would have later this evening
and for the Tuesday morning commute is less certain, because areas
that would see little to no accumulation may have no problems but
if you happen to be that spot that gets more precipitation you be
more prone to slick spots. As for the mountains, snow amounts
could be in the 1 to 3 inch range, when all is said and done for
the entire system, with isolated higher amounts.

Late this evening and overnight, the main shower threat is
expected to shift toward the Central Panhandle and Camas Prairie,
and possibly the Blues. A secondary threat will linger within the
northeastern mountains, with a weak secondary wave dropping by and
the weakening deformation axis in the region. Tuesday looks mainly
dry and partly cloudy to clear.

Winds will be an issue this evening with the shortwave pushing in
coupling with a tightening pressure gradients. The strongest winds
are expected through the Okanogan Valley, where some channeling is
expected. However speeds will also be up across the remainder of
eastern WA and the north ID valleys. On average we are looking for
10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. However in the Okanogan
Valley speeds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are possible.
Going into the overnight and Tuesday the gradients begin to
slacken and the atmosphere decouples, so overall speeds should
begin to abate.

Temperatures tonight are expected to drop below normal thanks to
the push of colder, drier air from the north. Values could be some
10 or so degrees below average. This carries into Tuesday
afternoon with highs expected to remain below normal by 5 to 10
degrees. /J. Cote`

Tuesday night through Monday: A ridge of high pressure will be the
dominate weather feature through the period delivering mostly dry
conditions and a gradual warming trend. The only exception is
within the Friday time-frame. Models suggest the ridge will
flatten enough allowing a weak disturbance to skirt the
International Border before dropping southeast down the MT/ID
border. The ECMWF is an outlier at this time indicating the
potential for a tenth or so of liquid while the GFS/Canadian/Ensemble
Means only bring through trace amounts of liquid. Needless to say,
confidence is low regarding this feature and precipitation chances
but this looks to be the only chance for precipitation through
Monday. Temperatures will start off cool with 850mb temperatures
on the order of -5C but warm near 3-8C by the weekend. This will
equate to warming temperatures each day with temperatures expected
to warm well above normal by the weekend.

There are signs in the extended models that a large scale pattern
change will be possible which features the reversal of the Eastern
US trough and Western Ridge. There are some timing differences but
looks to occur around mid to late next week. Climate Prediction
Center looks to favor this change as well with the 8-14 day
outlook predicting the potential for warmer and wetter conditions
on the West Coast... conducive of the incoming trof and
mild/wetter southwest flow. /sb



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A shortwave will drop south across the east WA/north ID
between 00-06Z, with scattered snow showers. With unstable lapses
accompanying these some of these could be locally heavy, producing
brief reductions to MVFR conditions, especially around
GEG/SFF/COE. They will be more isolated toward PUW/LWS. The threat
will wane after 03-04Z over most locations, but could some
potential may linger through 08Z. EAT/MWH will mainly dry, with
only the off chance of a flurry. Otherwise look for VFR conditions
here. Expect breezy conditions around 15 to 25kts, with gusts to
30 around MWH. Other breezy conditions are expected at EAT, as
well as GEG to COE with the incoming shortwave. However speeds
will be a bit less, at 10 to 20kts. Speeds in general will abate
after 08-11Z. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        18  37  17  43  23  48 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  16  37  14  43  21  49 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        18  37  17  43  26  51 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       26  40  20  47  27  54 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       21  41  16  45  22  50 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      17  34  12  41  21  44 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        17  32  13  40  22  45 /  70   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     22  44  20  48  26  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      27  45  20  50  29  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           22  45  19  47  24  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 022343
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
343 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will pass through this evening, with potential
for scattered snow showers along with breezy conditions across
much of the region. The snow shower threat and winds abate
overnight into Tuesday.  Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of the
week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow for
the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tuesday: The snow shower threat will dissipate
across the Inland NW tonight on a breezy north wind, leading to a
drier and colder Tuesday. This evening a mid-level shortwave is
tracking across the eastern third of WA and north ID; it is
projected to sag toward central and southern ID late this evening
into the overnight. As that shortwave tracks by us it is
accompanied by a pool of colder 500mb temperatures, in the -30 to
-35 C range. This leads to some unstable lapse rates and so the
accompanying potential for convective showers. Furthermore, a
deformation axis/surface trough lingers across the eastern third
of WA through the night, though it does lose some of its
resolution overnight.

All of this means a threat of scattered to locally numerous snow
showers through, especially early this evening, between 00-04Z (4
to 8 PM), before the drier northerly flow take hold and the
precipitation threat begins to wind down. The deformation
axis/trough itself should help to focus those showers and right
now that been somewhat consistently across northeast mountain and
Spokane/C`dA area.

The convective nature of the system makes pinning down the
precise snow accumulations difficult in the valleys. Values could
range from nothing or a trace to as much as 1 inch or so under the
heaviest bands. The road and air temperatures, however, should
keep the snow from sticking to the roads and other surfaces
initially. However later this evening and overnight any
precipitation that falls would have every opportunity to freeze on
surface. How much of an impact that would have later this evening
and for the Tuesday morning commute is less certain, because areas
that would see little to no accumulation may have no problems but
if you happen to be that spot that gets more precipitation you be
more prone to slick spots. As for the mountains, snow amounts
could be in the 1 to 3 inch range, when all is said and done for
the entire system, with isolated higher amounts.

Late this evening and overnight, the main shower threat is
expected to shift toward the Central Panhandle and Camas Prairie,
and possibly the Blues. A secondary threat will linger within the
northeastern mountains, with a weak secondary wave dropping by and
the weakening deformation axis in the region. Tuesday looks mainly
dry and partly cloudy to clear.

Winds will be an issue this evening with the shortwave pushing in
coupling with a tightening pressure gradients. The strongest winds
are expected through the Okanogan Valley, where some channeling is
expected. However speeds will also be up across the remainder of
eastern WA and the north ID valleys. On average we are looking for
10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. However in the Okanogan
Valley speeds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are possible.
Going into the overnight and Tuesday the gradients begin to
slacken and the atmosphere decouples, so overall speeds should
begin to abate.

Temperatures tonight are expected to drop below normal thanks to
the push of colder, drier air from the north. Values could be some
10 or so degrees below average. This carries into Tuesday
afternoon with highs expected to remain below normal by 5 to 10
degrees. /J. Cote`

Tuesday night through Monday: A ridge of high pressure will be the
dominate weather feature through the period delivering mostly dry
conditions and a gradual warming trend. The only exception is
within the Friday time-frame. Models suggest the ridge will
flatten enough allowing a weak disturbance to skirt the
International Border before dropping southeast down the MT/ID
border. The ECMWF is an outlier at this time indicating the
potential for a tenth or so of liquid while the GFS/Canadian/Ensemble
Means only bring through trace amounts of liquid. Needless to say,
confidence is low regarding this feature and precipitation chances
but this looks to be the only chance for precipitation through
Monday. Temperatures will start off cool with 850mb temperatures
on the order of -5C but warm near 3-8C by the weekend. This will
equate to warming temperatures each day with temperatures expected
to warm well above normal by the weekend.

There are signs in the extended models that a large scale pattern
change will be possible which features the reversal of the Eastern
US trough and Western Ridge. There are some timing differences but
looks to occur around mid to late next week. Climate Prediction
Center looks to favor this change as well with the 8-14 day
outlook predicting the potential for warmer and wetter conditions
on the West Coast... conducive of the incoming trof and
mild/wetter southwest flow. /sb



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A shortwave will drop south across the east WA/north ID
between 00-06Z, with scattered snow showers. With unstable lapses
accompanying these some of these could be locally heavy, producing
brief reductions to MVFR conditions, especially around
GEG/SFF/COE. They will be more isolated toward PUW/LWS. The threat
will wane after 03-04Z over most locations, but could some
potential may linger through 08Z. EAT/MWH will mainly dry, with
only the off chance of a flurry. Otherwise look for VFR conditions
here. Expect breezy conditions around 15 to 25kts, with gusts to
30 around MWH. Other breezy conditions are expected at EAT, as
well as GEG to COE with the incoming shortwave. However speeds
will be a bit less, at 10 to 20kts. Speeds in general will abate
after 08-11Z. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        18  37  17  43  23  48 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  16  37  14  43  21  49 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        18  37  17  43  26  51 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       26  40  20  47  27  54 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       21  41  16  45  22  50 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      17  34  12  41  21  44 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        17  32  13  40  22  45 /  70   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     22  44  20  48  26  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      27  45  20  50  29  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           22  45  19  47  24  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSEW 022306
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE
MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MIDWEEK. A
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THURSDAY WILL WEAKEN THE
RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...COLD DRY AIR AND A HIGH OVER ALBERTA IS SENDING SOME
COOL DRY AIR INTO WESTERN WA AS WELL. THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS OUGHT TO
BE FROSTY IN THE NORMALLY COLDER WIND SHELTERED SPOTS. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS JUST OFFSHORE WITH NLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WA. THE RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN AFTER THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SYSTEM MOVES INTO
B.C...JUST BRUSHING THE NORTH PART OF WRN WA. IT WILL BE A LITTLE ON
THE COOL SIDE AT FIRST...BUT LOOKING AT THE 850MB TEMPS FROM THE
LATEST GFS SHOWS A WARMING TREND FROM AROUND -3C TUESDAY MORNING TO
AROUND +6C LATE IN THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM...AFTER THE RIDGE WEAKENS THURSDAY UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUND
FOR THE WEEKEND AND A WARMING TREND WILL LIKELY RESUME. THE FORECAST
WAS ADJUSTED TO LIMIT THE CHANCE OF PRECIP THU AND FRI TO JUST THE
NORTH CASCADES...MOST MODELS ARE DRY OVER ALL OF WRN WA ALL WEEK.
TEMPS WERE ALSO WARMED UP A BIT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFFSHORE. STRONG NLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY TUE. MODERATELY STRONG LOW
LEVEL NLY FLOW WILL BECOME ELY TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED BUT THERE MIGHT BE PATCHY SHALLOW FOG REDUCING VSBYS
INTO 3-5SM RANGE AFTER 1000 UTC FROM ABOUT KOLM SWD AND WWD.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU TUE MORNING. WIND WILL
BE NLY 10-15 KT /WITH OCNL GUSTS NEAR 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A 1039 MB HIGH OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT. LOOK FOR
A 1037 MB HIGH TO ALSO DEVELOP OVER MONTANA LATE TONIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH LOWER PRES OVER OREGON AND THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
CAUSE THE NORTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME EASTERLY OR OFFSHORE EARLY TUE.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY TUE...WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING FLAT BY TUE NIGHT.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KSEW 022306
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE
MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MIDWEEK. A
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THURSDAY WILL WEAKEN THE
RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...COLD DRY AIR AND A HIGH OVER ALBERTA IS SENDING SOME
COOL DRY AIR INTO WESTERN WA AS WELL. THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS OUGHT TO
BE FROSTY IN THE NORMALLY COLDER WIND SHELTERED SPOTS. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS JUST OFFSHORE WITH NLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WA. THE RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN AFTER THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SYSTEM MOVES INTO
B.C...JUST BRUSHING THE NORTH PART OF WRN WA. IT WILL BE A LITTLE ON
THE COOL SIDE AT FIRST...BUT LOOKING AT THE 850MB TEMPS FROM THE
LATEST GFS SHOWS A WARMING TREND FROM AROUND -3C TUESDAY MORNING TO
AROUND +6C LATE IN THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM...AFTER THE RIDGE WEAKENS THURSDAY UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUND
FOR THE WEEKEND AND A WARMING TREND WILL LIKELY RESUME. THE FORECAST
WAS ADJUSTED TO LIMIT THE CHANCE OF PRECIP THU AND FRI TO JUST THE
NORTH CASCADES...MOST MODELS ARE DRY OVER ALL OF WRN WA ALL WEEK.
TEMPS WERE ALSO WARMED UP A BIT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFFSHORE. STRONG NLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY TUE. MODERATELY STRONG LOW
LEVEL NLY FLOW WILL BECOME ELY TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED BUT THERE MIGHT BE PATCHY SHALLOW FOG REDUCING VSBYS
INTO 3-5SM RANGE AFTER 1000 UTC FROM ABOUT KOLM SWD AND WWD.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU TUE MORNING. WIND WILL
BE NLY 10-15 KT /WITH OCNL GUSTS NEAR 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A 1039 MB HIGH OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT. LOOK FOR
A 1037 MB HIGH TO ALSO DEVELOP OVER MONTANA LATE TONIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH LOWER PRES OVER OREGON AND THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
CAUSE THE NORTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME EASTERLY OR OFFSHORE EARLY TUE.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY TUE...WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING FLAT BY TUE NIGHT.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KSEW 022306
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE
MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MIDWEEK. A
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THURSDAY WILL WEAKEN THE
RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...COLD DRY AIR AND A HIGH OVER ALBERTA IS SENDING SOME
COOL DRY AIR INTO WESTERN WA AS WELL. THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS OUGHT TO
BE FROSTY IN THE NORMALLY COLDER WIND SHELTERED SPOTS. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS JUST OFFSHORE WITH NLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WA. THE RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN AFTER THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SYSTEM MOVES INTO
B.C...JUST BRUSHING THE NORTH PART OF WRN WA. IT WILL BE A LITTLE ON
THE COOL SIDE AT FIRST...BUT LOOKING AT THE 850MB TEMPS FROM THE
LATEST GFS SHOWS A WARMING TREND FROM AROUND -3C TUESDAY MORNING TO
AROUND +6C LATE IN THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM...AFTER THE RIDGE WEAKENS THURSDAY UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUND
FOR THE WEEKEND AND A WARMING TREND WILL LIKELY RESUME. THE FORECAST
WAS ADJUSTED TO LIMIT THE CHANCE OF PRECIP THU AND FRI TO JUST THE
NORTH CASCADES...MOST MODELS ARE DRY OVER ALL OF WRN WA ALL WEEK.
TEMPS WERE ALSO WARMED UP A BIT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFFSHORE. STRONG NLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY TUE. MODERATELY STRONG LOW
LEVEL NLY FLOW WILL BECOME ELY TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED BUT THERE MIGHT BE PATCHY SHALLOW FOG REDUCING VSBYS
INTO 3-5SM RANGE AFTER 1000 UTC FROM ABOUT KOLM SWD AND WWD.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU TUE MORNING. WIND WILL
BE NLY 10-15 KT /WITH OCNL GUSTS NEAR 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A 1039 MB HIGH OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT. LOOK FOR
A 1037 MB HIGH TO ALSO DEVELOP OVER MONTANA LATE TONIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH LOWER PRES OVER OREGON AND THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
CAUSE THE NORTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME EASTERLY OR OFFSHORE EARLY TUE.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY TUE...WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING FLAT BY TUE NIGHT.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KSEW 022306
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE
MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MIDWEEK. A
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THURSDAY WILL WEAKEN THE
RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...COLD DRY AIR AND A HIGH OVER ALBERTA IS SENDING SOME
COOL DRY AIR INTO WESTERN WA AS WELL. THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS OUGHT TO
BE FROSTY IN THE NORMALLY COLDER WIND SHELTERED SPOTS. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS JUST OFFSHORE WITH NLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WA. THE RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN AFTER THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SYSTEM MOVES INTO
B.C...JUST BRUSHING THE NORTH PART OF WRN WA. IT WILL BE A LITTLE ON
THE COOL SIDE AT FIRST...BUT LOOKING AT THE 850MB TEMPS FROM THE
LATEST GFS SHOWS A WARMING TREND FROM AROUND -3C TUESDAY MORNING TO
AROUND +6C LATE IN THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM...AFTER THE RIDGE WEAKENS THURSDAY UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUND
FOR THE WEEKEND AND A WARMING TREND WILL LIKELY RESUME. THE FORECAST
WAS ADJUSTED TO LIMIT THE CHANCE OF PRECIP THU AND FRI TO JUST THE
NORTH CASCADES...MOST MODELS ARE DRY OVER ALL OF WRN WA ALL WEEK.
TEMPS WERE ALSO WARMED UP A BIT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFFSHORE. STRONG NLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY TUE. MODERATELY STRONG LOW
LEVEL NLY FLOW WILL BECOME ELY TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED BUT THERE MIGHT BE PATCHY SHALLOW FOG REDUCING VSBYS
INTO 3-5SM RANGE AFTER 1000 UTC FROM ABOUT KOLM SWD AND WWD.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU TUE MORNING. WIND WILL
BE NLY 10-15 KT /WITH OCNL GUSTS NEAR 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON/. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A 1039 MB HIGH OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT. LOOK FOR
A 1037 MB HIGH TO ALSO DEVELOP OVER MONTANA LATE TONIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH LOWER PRES OVER OREGON AND THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
CAUSE THE NORTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME EASTERLY OR OFFSHORE EARLY TUE.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY TUE...WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING FLAT BY TUE NIGHT.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KOTX 022237
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
237 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will pass through this evening, with potential
for scattered snow showers along with breezy conditions across
much of the region. The snow shower threat and winds abate
overnight into Tuesday.  Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of the
week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow for
the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tuesday: The snow shower threat will dissipate
across the Inland NW tonight on a breezy north wind, leading to a
drier and colder Tuesday. This evening a mid-level shortwave is
tracking across the eastern third of WA and north ID; it is
projected to sag toward central and southern ID late this evening
into the overnight. As that shortwave tracks by us it is
accompanied by a pool of colder 500mb temperatures, in the -30 to
-35 C range. This leads to some unstable lapse rates and so the
accompanying potential for convective showers. Furthermore, a
deformation axis/surface trough lingers across the eastern third
of WA through the night, though it does lose some of its
resolution overnight.

All of this means a threat of scattered to locally numerous snow
showers through, especially early this evening, between 00-04Z (4
to 8 PM), before the drier northerly flow take hold and the
precipitation threat begins to wind down. The deformation
axis/trough itself should help to focus those showers and right
now that been somewhat consistently across northeast mountain and
Spokane/C`dA area.

The convective nature of the system makes pinning down the
precise snow accumulations difficult in the valleys. Values could
range from nothing or a trace to as much as 1 inch or so under the
heaviest bands. The road and air temperatures, however, should
keep the snow from sticking to the roads and other surfaces
initially. However later this evening and overnight any
precipitation that falls would have every opportunity to freeze on
surface. How much of an impact that would have later this evening
and for the Tuesday morning commute is less certain, because areas
that would see little to no accumulation may have no problems but
if you happen to be that spot that gets more precipitation you be
more prone to slick spots. As for the mountains, snow amounts
could be in the 1 to 3 inch range, when all is said and done for
the entire system, with isolated higher amounts.

Late this evening and overnight, the main shower threat is
expected to shift toward the Central Panhandle and Camas Prairie,
and possibly the Blues. A secondary threat will linger within the
northeastern mountains, with a weak secondary wave dropping by and
the weakening deformation axis in the region. Tuesday looks mainly
dry and partly cloudy to clear.

Winds will be an issue this evening with the shortwave pushing in
coupling with a tightening pressure gradients. The strongest winds
are expected through the Okanogan Valley, where some channeling is
expected. However speeds will also be up across the remainder of
eastern WA and the north ID valleys. On average we are looking for
10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. However in the Okanogan
Valley speeds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are possible.
Going into the overnight and Tuesday the gradients begin to
slacken and the atmosphere decouples, so overall speeds should
begin to abate.

Temperatures tonight are expected to drop below normal thanks to
the push of colder, drier air from the north. Values could be some
10 or so degrees below average. This carries into Tuesday
afternoon with highs expected to remain below normal by 5 to 10
degrees. /J. Cote`

Tuesday night through Monday: A ridge of high pressure will be the
dominate weather feature through the period delivering mostly dry
conditions and a gradual warming trend. The only exception is
within the Friday time-frame. Models suggest the ridge will
flatten enough allowing a weak disturbance to skirt the
International Border before dropping southeast down the MT/ID
border. The ECMWF is an outlier at this time indicating the
potential for a tenth or so of liquid while the GFS/Canadian/Ensemble
Means only bring through trace amounts of liquid. Needless to say,
confidence is low regarding this feature and precipitation chances
but this looks to be the only chance for precipitation through
Monday. Temperatures will start off cool with 850mb temperatures
on the order of -5C but warm near 3-8C by the weekend. This will
equate to warming temperatures each day with temperatures expected
to warm well above normal by the weekend.

There are signs in the extended models that a large scale pattern
change will be possible which features the reversal of the Eastern
US trough and Western Ridge. There are some timing differences but
looks to occur around mid to late next week. Climate Prediction
Center looks to favor this change as well with the 8-14 day
outlook predicting the potential for warmer and wetter conditions
on the West Coast... conducive of the incoming trof and
mild/wetter southwest flow. /sb



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Incoming shortwave will increase snow showers this
afternoon, around the GEG to COE to PUW/LWS area. Some locally
heavier bands of snow are possible in the convective pattern and
incoming vort max. Primarily VFR conditions are expected, but
local MVFR conditions are possible in the heavier bands. The
snow shower threat and clouds will dissipate after 03 to 07Z.
Western TAF sites are expected to see little other than flurries.
Winds will be on the increase through the afternoon and values
remain breezy through the evening, before abating overnight.
/J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        18  37  17  43  23  48 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  16  37  14  43  21  49 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        18  37  17  43  26  51 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       26  40  20  47  27  54 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       21  41  16  45  22  50 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      17  34  12  41  21  44 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        17  32  13  40  22  45 /  70   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     22  44  20  48  26  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      27  45  20  50  29  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           22  45  19  47  24  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 022237
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
237 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will pass through this evening, with potential
for scattered snow showers along with breezy conditions across
much of the region. The snow shower threat and winds abate
overnight into Tuesday.  Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of the
week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow for
the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tuesday: The snow shower threat will dissipate
across the Inland NW tonight on a breezy north wind, leading to a
drier and colder Tuesday. This evening a mid-level shortwave is
tracking across the eastern third of WA and north ID; it is
projected to sag toward central and southern ID late this evening
into the overnight. As that shortwave tracks by us it is
accompanied by a pool of colder 500mb temperatures, in the -30 to
-35 C range. This leads to some unstable lapse rates and so the
accompanying potential for convective showers. Furthermore, a
deformation axis/surface trough lingers across the eastern third
of WA through the night, though it does lose some of its
resolution overnight.

All of this means a threat of scattered to locally numerous snow
showers through, especially early this evening, between 00-04Z (4
to 8 PM), before the drier northerly flow take hold and the
precipitation threat begins to wind down. The deformation
axis/trough itself should help to focus those showers and right
now that been somewhat consistently across northeast mountain and
Spokane/C`dA area.

The convective nature of the system makes pinning down the
precise snow accumulations difficult in the valleys. Values could
range from nothing or a trace to as much as 1 inch or so under the
heaviest bands. The road and air temperatures, however, should
keep the snow from sticking to the roads and other surfaces
initially. However later this evening and overnight any
precipitation that falls would have every opportunity to freeze on
surface. How much of an impact that would have later this evening
and for the Tuesday morning commute is less certain, because areas
that would see little to no accumulation may have no problems but
if you happen to be that spot that gets more precipitation you be
more prone to slick spots. As for the mountains, snow amounts
could be in the 1 to 3 inch range, when all is said and done for
the entire system, with isolated higher amounts.

Late this evening and overnight, the main shower threat is
expected to shift toward the Central Panhandle and Camas Prairie,
and possibly the Blues. A secondary threat will linger within the
northeastern mountains, with a weak secondary wave dropping by and
the weakening deformation axis in the region. Tuesday looks mainly
dry and partly cloudy to clear.

Winds will be an issue this evening with the shortwave pushing in
coupling with a tightening pressure gradients. The strongest winds
are expected through the Okanogan Valley, where some channeling is
expected. However speeds will also be up across the remainder of
eastern WA and the north ID valleys. On average we are looking for
10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. However in the Okanogan
Valley speeds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are possible.
Going into the overnight and Tuesday the gradients begin to
slacken and the atmosphere decouples, so overall speeds should
begin to abate.

Temperatures tonight are expected to drop below normal thanks to
the push of colder, drier air from the north. Values could be some
10 or so degrees below average. This carries into Tuesday
afternoon with highs expected to remain below normal by 5 to 10
degrees. /J. Cote`

Tuesday night through Monday: A ridge of high pressure will be the
dominate weather feature through the period delivering mostly dry
conditions and a gradual warming trend. The only exception is
within the Friday time-frame. Models suggest the ridge will
flatten enough allowing a weak disturbance to skirt the
International Border before dropping southeast down the MT/ID
border. The ECMWF is an outlier at this time indicating the
potential for a tenth or so of liquid while the GFS/Canadian/Ensemble
Means only bring through trace amounts of liquid. Needless to say,
confidence is low regarding this feature and precipitation chances
but this looks to be the only chance for precipitation through
Monday. Temperatures will start off cool with 850mb temperatures
on the order of -5C but warm near 3-8C by the weekend. This will
equate to warming temperatures each day with temperatures expected
to warm well above normal by the weekend.

There are signs in the extended models that a large scale pattern
change will be possible which features the reversal of the Eastern
US trough and Western Ridge. There are some timing differences but
looks to occur around mid to late next week. Climate Prediction
Center looks to favor this change as well with the 8-14 day
outlook predicting the potential for warmer and wetter conditions
on the West Coast... conducive of the incoming trof and
mild/wetter southwest flow. /sb



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Incoming shortwave will increase snow showers this
afternoon, around the GEG to COE to PUW/LWS area. Some locally
heavier bands of snow are possible in the convective pattern and
incoming vort max. Primarily VFR conditions are expected, but
local MVFR conditions are possible in the heavier bands. The
snow shower threat and clouds will dissipate after 03 to 07Z.
Western TAF sites are expected to see little other than flurries.
Winds will be on the increase through the afternoon and values
remain breezy through the evening, before abating overnight.
/J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        18  37  17  43  23  48 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  16  37  14  43  21  49 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        18  37  17  43  26  51 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       26  40  20  47  27  54 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       21  41  16  45  22  50 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      17  34  12  41  21  44 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        17  32  13  40  22  45 /  70   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     22  44  20  48  26  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      27  45  20  50  29  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           22  45  19  47  24  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 022237
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
237 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will pass through this evening, with potential
for scattered snow showers along with breezy conditions across
much of the region. The snow shower threat and winds abate
overnight into Tuesday.  Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of the
week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow for
the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tuesday: The snow shower threat will dissipate
across the Inland NW tonight on a breezy north wind, leading to a
drier and colder Tuesday. This evening a mid-level shortwave is
tracking across the eastern third of WA and north ID; it is
projected to sag toward central and southern ID late this evening
into the overnight. As that shortwave tracks by us it is
accompanied by a pool of colder 500mb temperatures, in the -30 to
-35 C range. This leads to some unstable lapse rates and so the
accompanying potential for convective showers. Furthermore, a
deformation axis/surface trough lingers across the eastern third
of WA through the night, though it does lose some of its
resolution overnight.

All of this means a threat of scattered to locally numerous snow
showers through, especially early this evening, between 00-04Z (4
to 8 PM), before the drier northerly flow take hold and the
precipitation threat begins to wind down. The deformation
axis/trough itself should help to focus those showers and right
now that been somewhat consistently across northeast mountain and
Spokane/C`dA area.

The convective nature of the system makes pinning down the
precise snow accumulations difficult in the valleys. Values could
range from nothing or a trace to as much as 1 inch or so under the
heaviest bands. The road and air temperatures, however, should
keep the snow from sticking to the roads and other surfaces
initially. However later this evening and overnight any
precipitation that falls would have every opportunity to freeze on
surface. How much of an impact that would have later this evening
and for the Tuesday morning commute is less certain, because areas
that would see little to no accumulation may have no problems but
if you happen to be that spot that gets more precipitation you be
more prone to slick spots. As for the mountains, snow amounts
could be in the 1 to 3 inch range, when all is said and done for
the entire system, with isolated higher amounts.

Late this evening and overnight, the main shower threat is
expected to shift toward the Central Panhandle and Camas Prairie,
and possibly the Blues. A secondary threat will linger within the
northeastern mountains, with a weak secondary wave dropping by and
the weakening deformation axis in the region. Tuesday looks mainly
dry and partly cloudy to clear.

Winds will be an issue this evening with the shortwave pushing in
coupling with a tightening pressure gradients. The strongest winds
are expected through the Okanogan Valley, where some channeling is
expected. However speeds will also be up across the remainder of
eastern WA and the north ID valleys. On average we are looking for
10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. However in the Okanogan
Valley speeds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are possible.
Going into the overnight and Tuesday the gradients begin to
slacken and the atmosphere decouples, so overall speeds should
begin to abate.

Temperatures tonight are expected to drop below normal thanks to
the push of colder, drier air from the north. Values could be some
10 or so degrees below average. This carries into Tuesday
afternoon with highs expected to remain below normal by 5 to 10
degrees. /J. Cote`

Tuesday night through Monday: A ridge of high pressure will be the
dominate weather feature through the period delivering mostly dry
conditions and a gradual warming trend. The only exception is
within the Friday time-frame. Models suggest the ridge will
flatten enough allowing a weak disturbance to skirt the
International Border before dropping southeast down the MT/ID
border. The ECMWF is an outlier at this time indicating the
potential for a tenth or so of liquid while the GFS/Canadian/Ensemble
Means only bring through trace amounts of liquid. Needless to say,
confidence is low regarding this feature and precipitation chances
but this looks to be the only chance for precipitation through
Monday. Temperatures will start off cool with 850mb temperatures
on the order of -5C but warm near 3-8C by the weekend. This will
equate to warming temperatures each day with temperatures expected
to warm well above normal by the weekend.

There are signs in the extended models that a large scale pattern
change will be possible which features the reversal of the Eastern
US trough and Western Ridge. There are some timing differences but
looks to occur around mid to late next week. Climate Prediction
Center looks to favor this change as well with the 8-14 day
outlook predicting the potential for warmer and wetter conditions
on the West Coast... conducive of the incoming trof and
mild/wetter southwest flow. /sb



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Incoming shortwave will increase snow showers this
afternoon, around the GEG to COE to PUW/LWS area. Some locally
heavier bands of snow are possible in the convective pattern and
incoming vort max. Primarily VFR conditions are expected, but
local MVFR conditions are possible in the heavier bands. The
snow shower threat and clouds will dissipate after 03 to 07Z.
Western TAF sites are expected to see little other than flurries.
Winds will be on the increase through the afternoon and values
remain breezy through the evening, before abating overnight.
/J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        18  37  17  43  23  48 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  16  37  14  43  21  49 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        18  37  17  43  26  51 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       26  40  20  47  27  54 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       21  41  16  45  22  50 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      17  34  12  41  21  44 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        17  32  13  40  22  45 /  70   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     22  44  20  48  26  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      27  45  20  50  29  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           22  45  19  47  24  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 022237
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
237 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will pass through this evening, with potential
for scattered snow showers along with breezy conditions across
much of the region. The snow shower threat and winds abate
overnight into Tuesday.  Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of the
week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow for
the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tuesday: The snow shower threat will dissipate
across the Inland NW tonight on a breezy north wind, leading to a
drier and colder Tuesday. This evening a mid-level shortwave is
tracking across the eastern third of WA and north ID; it is
projected to sag toward central and southern ID late this evening
into the overnight. As that shortwave tracks by us it is
accompanied by a pool of colder 500mb temperatures, in the -30 to
-35 C range. This leads to some unstable lapse rates and so the
accompanying potential for convective showers. Furthermore, a
deformation axis/surface trough lingers across the eastern third
of WA through the night, though it does lose some of its
resolution overnight.

All of this means a threat of scattered to locally numerous snow
showers through, especially early this evening, between 00-04Z (4
to 8 PM), before the drier northerly flow take hold and the
precipitation threat begins to wind down. The deformation
axis/trough itself should help to focus those showers and right
now that been somewhat consistently across northeast mountain and
Spokane/C`dA area.

The convective nature of the system makes pinning down the
precise snow accumulations difficult in the valleys. Values could
range from nothing or a trace to as much as 1 inch or so under the
heaviest bands. The road and air temperatures, however, should
keep the snow from sticking to the roads and other surfaces
initially. However later this evening and overnight any
precipitation that falls would have every opportunity to freeze on
surface. How much of an impact that would have later this evening
and for the Tuesday morning commute is less certain, because areas
that would see little to no accumulation may have no problems but
if you happen to be that spot that gets more precipitation you be
more prone to slick spots. As for the mountains, snow amounts
could be in the 1 to 3 inch range, when all is said and done for
the entire system, with isolated higher amounts.

Late this evening and overnight, the main shower threat is
expected to shift toward the Central Panhandle and Camas Prairie,
and possibly the Blues. A secondary threat will linger within the
northeastern mountains, with a weak secondary wave dropping by and
the weakening deformation axis in the region. Tuesday looks mainly
dry and partly cloudy to clear.

Winds will be an issue this evening with the shortwave pushing in
coupling with a tightening pressure gradients. The strongest winds
are expected through the Okanogan Valley, where some channeling is
expected. However speeds will also be up across the remainder of
eastern WA and the north ID valleys. On average we are looking for
10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. However in the Okanogan
Valley speeds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are possible.
Going into the overnight and Tuesday the gradients begin to
slacken and the atmosphere decouples, so overall speeds should
begin to abate.

Temperatures tonight are expected to drop below normal thanks to
the push of colder, drier air from the north. Values could be some
10 or so degrees below average. This carries into Tuesday
afternoon with highs expected to remain below normal by 5 to 10
degrees. /J. Cote`

Tuesday night through Monday: A ridge of high pressure will be the
dominate weather feature through the period delivering mostly dry
conditions and a gradual warming trend. The only exception is
within the Friday time-frame. Models suggest the ridge will
flatten enough allowing a weak disturbance to skirt the
International Border before dropping southeast down the MT/ID
border. The ECMWF is an outlier at this time indicating the
potential for a tenth or so of liquid while the GFS/Canadian/Ensemble
Means only bring through trace amounts of liquid. Needless to say,
confidence is low regarding this feature and precipitation chances
but this looks to be the only chance for precipitation through
Monday. Temperatures will start off cool with 850mb temperatures
on the order of -5C but warm near 3-8C by the weekend. This will
equate to warming temperatures each day with temperatures expected
to warm well above normal by the weekend.

There are signs in the extended models that a large scale pattern
change will be possible which features the reversal of the Eastern
US trough and Western Ridge. There are some timing differences but
looks to occur around mid to late next week. Climate Prediction
Center looks to favor this change as well with the 8-14 day
outlook predicting the potential for warmer and wetter conditions
on the West Coast... conducive of the incoming trof and
mild/wetter southwest flow. /sb



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Incoming shortwave will increase snow showers this
afternoon, around the GEG to COE to PUW/LWS area. Some locally
heavier bands of snow are possible in the convective pattern and
incoming vort max. Primarily VFR conditions are expected, but
local MVFR conditions are possible in the heavier bands. The
snow shower threat and clouds will dissipate after 03 to 07Z.
Western TAF sites are expected to see little other than flurries.
Winds will be on the increase through the afternoon and values
remain breezy through the evening, before abating overnight.
/J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        18  37  17  43  23  48 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  16  37  14  43  21  49 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        18  37  17  43  26  51 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       26  40  20  47  27  54 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       21  41  16  45  22  50 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      17  34  12  41  21  44 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        17  32  13  40  22  45 /  70   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     22  44  20  48  26  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      27  45  20  50  29  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           22  45  19  47  24  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 022237
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
237 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will pass through this evening, with potential
for scattered snow showers along with breezy conditions across
much of the region. The snow shower threat and winds abate
overnight into Tuesday.  Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of the
week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow for
the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tuesday: The snow shower threat will dissipate
across the Inland NW tonight on a breezy north wind, leading to a
drier and colder Tuesday. This evening a mid-level shortwave is
tracking across the eastern third of WA and north ID; it is
projected to sag toward central and southern ID late this evening
into the overnight. As that shortwave tracks by us it is
accompanied by a pool of colder 500mb temperatures, in the -30 to
-35 C range. This leads to some unstable lapse rates and so the
accompanying potential for convective showers. Furthermore, a
deformation axis/surface trough lingers across the eastern third
of WA through the night, though it does lose some of its
resolution overnight.

All of this means a threat of scattered to locally numerous snow
showers through, especially early this evening, between 00-04Z (4
to 8 PM), before the drier northerly flow take hold and the
precipitation threat begins to wind down. The deformation
axis/trough itself should help to focus those showers and right
now that been somewhat consistently across northeast mountain and
Spokane/C`dA area.

The convective nature of the system makes pinning down the
precise snow accumulations difficult in the valleys. Values could
range from nothing or a trace to as much as 1 inch or so under the
heaviest bands. The road and air temperatures, however, should
keep the snow from sticking to the roads and other surfaces
initially. However later this evening and overnight any
precipitation that falls would have every opportunity to freeze on
surface. How much of an impact that would have later this evening
and for the Tuesday morning commute is less certain, because areas
that would see little to no accumulation may have no problems but
if you happen to be that spot that gets more precipitation you be
more prone to slick spots. As for the mountains, snow amounts
could be in the 1 to 3 inch range, when all is said and done for
the entire system, with isolated higher amounts.

Late this evening and overnight, the main shower threat is
expected to shift toward the Central Panhandle and Camas Prairie,
and possibly the Blues. A secondary threat will linger within the
northeastern mountains, with a weak secondary wave dropping by and
the weakening deformation axis in the region. Tuesday looks mainly
dry and partly cloudy to clear.

Winds will be an issue this evening with the shortwave pushing in
coupling with a tightening pressure gradients. The strongest winds
are expected through the Okanogan Valley, where some channeling is
expected. However speeds will also be up across the remainder of
eastern WA and the north ID valleys. On average we are looking for
10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. However in the Okanogan
Valley speeds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are possible.
Going into the overnight and Tuesday the gradients begin to
slacken and the atmosphere decouples, so overall speeds should
begin to abate.

Temperatures tonight are expected to drop below normal thanks to
the push of colder, drier air from the north. Values could be some
10 or so degrees below average. This carries into Tuesday
afternoon with highs expected to remain below normal by 5 to 10
degrees. /J. Cote`

Tuesday night through Monday: A ridge of high pressure will be the
dominate weather feature through the period delivering mostly dry
conditions and a gradual warming trend. The only exception is
within the Friday time-frame. Models suggest the ridge will
flatten enough allowing a weak disturbance to skirt the
International Border before dropping southeast down the MT/ID
border. The ECMWF is an outlier at this time indicating the
potential for a tenth or so of liquid while the GFS/Canadian/Ensemble
Means only bring through trace amounts of liquid. Needless to say,
confidence is low regarding this feature and precipitation chances
but this looks to be the only chance for precipitation through
Monday. Temperatures will start off cool with 850mb temperatures
on the order of -5C but warm near 3-8C by the weekend. This will
equate to warming temperatures each day with temperatures expected
to warm well above normal by the weekend.

There are signs in the extended models that a large scale pattern
change will be possible which features the reversal of the Eastern
US trough and Western Ridge. There are some timing differences but
looks to occur around mid to late next week. Climate Prediction
Center looks to favor this change as well with the 8-14 day
outlook predicting the potential for warmer and wetter conditions
on the West Coast... conducive of the incoming trof and
mild/wetter southwest flow. /sb



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Incoming shortwave will increase snow showers this
afternoon, around the GEG to COE to PUW/LWS area. Some locally
heavier bands of snow are possible in the convective pattern and
incoming vort max. Primarily VFR conditions are expected, but
local MVFR conditions are possible in the heavier bands. The
snow shower threat and clouds will dissipate after 03 to 07Z.
Western TAF sites are expected to see little other than flurries.
Winds will be on the increase through the afternoon and values
remain breezy through the evening, before abating overnight.
/J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        18  37  17  43  23  48 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  16  37  14  43  21  49 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        18  37  17  43  26  51 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       26  40  20  47  27  54 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       21  41  16  45  22  50 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      17  34  12  41  21  44 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        17  32  13  40  22  45 /  70   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     22  44  20  48  26  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      27  45  20  50  29  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           22  45  19  47  24  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 022237
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
237 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will pass through this evening, with potential
for scattered snow showers along with breezy conditions across
much of the region. The snow shower threat and winds abate
overnight into Tuesday.  Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of the
week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow for
the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tuesday: The snow shower threat will dissipate
across the Inland NW tonight on a breezy north wind, leading to a
drier and colder Tuesday. This evening a mid-level shortwave is
tracking across the eastern third of WA and north ID; it is
projected to sag toward central and southern ID late this evening
into the overnight. As that shortwave tracks by us it is
accompanied by a pool of colder 500mb temperatures, in the -30 to
-35 C range. This leads to some unstable lapse rates and so the
accompanying potential for convective showers. Furthermore, a
deformation axis/surface trough lingers across the eastern third
of WA through the night, though it does lose some of its
resolution overnight.

All of this means a threat of scattered to locally numerous snow
showers through, especially early this evening, between 00-04Z (4
to 8 PM), before the drier northerly flow take hold and the
precipitation threat begins to wind down. The deformation
axis/trough itself should help to focus those showers and right
now that been somewhat consistently across northeast mountain and
Spokane/C`dA area.

The convective nature of the system makes pinning down the
precise snow accumulations difficult in the valleys. Values could
range from nothing or a trace to as much as 1 inch or so under the
heaviest bands. The road and air temperatures, however, should
keep the snow from sticking to the roads and other surfaces
initially. However later this evening and overnight any
precipitation that falls would have every opportunity to freeze on
surface. How much of an impact that would have later this evening
and for the Tuesday morning commute is less certain, because areas
that would see little to no accumulation may have no problems but
if you happen to be that spot that gets more precipitation you be
more prone to slick spots. As for the mountains, snow amounts
could be in the 1 to 3 inch range, when all is said and done for
the entire system, with isolated higher amounts.

Late this evening and overnight, the main shower threat is
expected to shift toward the Central Panhandle and Camas Prairie,
and possibly the Blues. A secondary threat will linger within the
northeastern mountains, with a weak secondary wave dropping by and
the weakening deformation axis in the region. Tuesday looks mainly
dry and partly cloudy to clear.

Winds will be an issue this evening with the shortwave pushing in
coupling with a tightening pressure gradients. The strongest winds
are expected through the Okanogan Valley, where some channeling is
expected. However speeds will also be up across the remainder of
eastern WA and the north ID valleys. On average we are looking for
10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. However in the Okanogan
Valley speeds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are possible.
Going into the overnight and Tuesday the gradients begin to
slacken and the atmosphere decouples, so overall speeds should
begin to abate.

Temperatures tonight are expected to drop below normal thanks to
the push of colder, drier air from the north. Values could be some
10 or so degrees below average. This carries into Tuesday
afternoon with highs expected to remain below normal by 5 to 10
degrees. /J. Cote`

Tuesday night through Monday: A ridge of high pressure will be the
dominate weather feature through the period delivering mostly dry
conditions and a gradual warming trend. The only exception is
within the Friday time-frame. Models suggest the ridge will
flatten enough allowing a weak disturbance to skirt the
International Border before dropping southeast down the MT/ID
border. The ECMWF is an outlier at this time indicating the
potential for a tenth or so of liquid while the GFS/Canadian/Ensemble
Means only bring through trace amounts of liquid. Needless to say,
confidence is low regarding this feature and precipitation chances
but this looks to be the only chance for precipitation through
Monday. Temperatures will start off cool with 850mb temperatures
on the order of -5C but warm near 3-8C by the weekend. This will
equate to warming temperatures each day with temperatures expected
to warm well above normal by the weekend.

There are signs in the extended models that a large scale pattern
change will be possible which features the reversal of the Eastern
US trough and Western Ridge. There are some timing differences but
looks to occur around mid to late next week. Climate Prediction
Center looks to favor this change as well with the 8-14 day
outlook predicting the potential for warmer and wetter conditions
on the West Coast... conducive of the incoming trof and
mild/wetter southwest flow. /sb



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Incoming shortwave will increase snow showers this
afternoon, around the GEG to COE to PUW/LWS area. Some locally
heavier bands of snow are possible in the convective pattern and
incoming vort max. Primarily VFR conditions are expected, but
local MVFR conditions are possible in the heavier bands. The
snow shower threat and clouds will dissipate after 03 to 07Z.
Western TAF sites are expected to see little other than flurries.
Winds will be on the increase through the afternoon and values
remain breezy through the evening, before abating overnight.
/J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        18  37  17  43  23  48 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  16  37  14  43  21  49 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        18  37  17  43  26  51 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       26  40  20  47  27  54 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       21  41  16  45  22  50 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      17  34  12  41  21  44 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        17  32  13  40  22  45 /  70   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     22  44  20  48  26  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      27  45  20  50  29  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           22  45  19  47  24  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 022237
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
237 PM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will pass through this evening, with potential
for scattered snow showers along with breezy conditions across
much of the region. The snow shower threat and winds abate
overnight into Tuesday.  Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of the
week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow for
the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tuesday: The snow shower threat will dissipate
across the Inland NW tonight on a breezy north wind, leading to a
drier and colder Tuesday. This evening a mid-level shortwave is
tracking across the eastern third of WA and north ID; it is
projected to sag toward central and southern ID late this evening
into the overnight. As that shortwave tracks by us it is
accompanied by a pool of colder 500mb temperatures, in the -30 to
-35 C range. This leads to some unstable lapse rates and so the
accompanying potential for convective showers. Furthermore, a
deformation axis/surface trough lingers across the eastern third
of WA through the night, though it does lose some of its
resolution overnight.

All of this means a threat of scattered to locally numerous snow
showers through, especially early this evening, between 00-04Z (4
to 8 PM), before the drier northerly flow take hold and the
precipitation threat begins to wind down. The deformation
axis/trough itself should help to focus those showers and right
now that been somewhat consistently across northeast mountain and
Spokane/C`dA area.

The convective nature of the system makes pinning down the
precise snow accumulations difficult in the valleys. Values could
range from nothing or a trace to as much as 1 inch or so under the
heaviest bands. The road and air temperatures, however, should
keep the snow from sticking to the roads and other surfaces
initially. However later this evening and overnight any
precipitation that falls would have every opportunity to freeze on
surface. How much of an impact that would have later this evening
and for the Tuesday morning commute is less certain, because areas
that would see little to no accumulation may have no problems but
if you happen to be that spot that gets more precipitation you be
more prone to slick spots. As for the mountains, snow amounts
could be in the 1 to 3 inch range, when all is said and done for
the entire system, with isolated higher amounts.

Late this evening and overnight, the main shower threat is
expected to shift toward the Central Panhandle and Camas Prairie,
and possibly the Blues. A secondary threat will linger within the
northeastern mountains, with a weak secondary wave dropping by and
the weakening deformation axis in the region. Tuesday looks mainly
dry and partly cloudy to clear.

Winds will be an issue this evening with the shortwave pushing in
coupling with a tightening pressure gradients. The strongest winds
are expected through the Okanogan Valley, where some channeling is
expected. However speeds will also be up across the remainder of
eastern WA and the north ID valleys. On average we are looking for
10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. However in the Okanogan
Valley speeds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are possible.
Going into the overnight and Tuesday the gradients begin to
slacken and the atmosphere decouples, so overall speeds should
begin to abate.

Temperatures tonight are expected to drop below normal thanks to
the push of colder, drier air from the north. Values could be some
10 or so degrees below average. This carries into Tuesday
afternoon with highs expected to remain below normal by 5 to 10
degrees. /J. Cote`

Tuesday night through Monday: A ridge of high pressure will be the
dominate weather feature through the period delivering mostly dry
conditions and a gradual warming trend. The only exception is
within the Friday time-frame. Models suggest the ridge will
flatten enough allowing a weak disturbance to skirt the
International Border before dropping southeast down the MT/ID
border. The ECMWF is an outlier at this time indicating the
potential for a tenth or so of liquid while the GFS/Canadian/Ensemble
Means only bring through trace amounts of liquid. Needless to say,
confidence is low regarding this feature and precipitation chances
but this looks to be the only chance for precipitation through
Monday. Temperatures will start off cool with 850mb temperatures
on the order of -5C but warm near 3-8C by the weekend. This will
equate to warming temperatures each day with temperatures expected
to warm well above normal by the weekend.

There are signs in the extended models that a large scale pattern
change will be possible which features the reversal of the Eastern
US trough and Western Ridge. There are some timing differences but
looks to occur around mid to late next week. Climate Prediction
Center looks to favor this change as well with the 8-14 day
outlook predicting the potential for warmer and wetter conditions
on the West Coast... conducive of the incoming trof and
mild/wetter southwest flow. /sb



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Incoming shortwave will increase snow showers this
afternoon, around the GEG to COE to PUW/LWS area. Some locally
heavier bands of snow are possible in the convective pattern and
incoming vort max. Primarily VFR conditions are expected, but
local MVFR conditions are possible in the heavier bands. The
snow shower threat and clouds will dissipate after 03 to 07Z.
Western TAF sites are expected to see little other than flurries.
Winds will be on the increase through the afternoon and values
remain breezy through the evening, before abating overnight.
/J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        18  37  17  43  23  48 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  16  37  14  43  21  49 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        18  37  17  43  26  51 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       26  40  20  47  27  54 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       21  41  16  45  22  50 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      17  34  12  41  21  44 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        17  32  13  40  22  45 /  70   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     22  44  20  48  26  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      27  45  20  50  29  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           22  45  19  47  24  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 022224
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
223 PM PST MON MAR  2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRIER NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER SW WASHINGTON AND
NW OREGON LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A
SMALL AND COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER LARGE-SCALE FEATURES
INCLUDE A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 140W AND AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. VISIBLE SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD
FIELD FROM THE W SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE TO THE COAST AND ALSO OVER
THE CASCADE CREST AND INTO THE S WA CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

BRISK NLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TUE.
THE LATEST NAM AND ECMWF HINT AT A WEAK BACK-DOOR SYSTEM SLIDING S
ALONG THE ERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT WITH SOME VERY SPOTTY QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WILL KEEP THE MINIMAL POPS FOR THE HIGHER
CASCADES TONIGHT...BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ANYTHING WILL OCCUR. THE
BIGGER STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS. MAY ALSO
SEE A LITTLE EAST WIND DEVELOP IN THE GORGE LATE TONIGHT AS THE NAM
SHOWS A -3 TO -4 KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT BY 12Z TUE.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE SHORT TERM...AS IT HAS BEEN FOR MOST THE WINTER. SOME LOW-LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH WED SO NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL BE
RATHER LOCALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TUE NIGHT...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S FOR MANY INLAND VALLEYS. LATEST GFS AND NAM SHOW A WEAK
SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA 00Z-12Z TUE. WOULD EXPECT JUST HIGH
CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE. THE GFS AND ECMWF RUNS ALSO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE FLATTENING A BIT WED NIGHT AND THU. NAM CROSS-SECTION FROM NEAR
KAST THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE HINTS AT SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE...ABOVE 450 MB...WED NIGHT AND THU SO WOULD SUSPECT ANOTHER
SURGE OF CIRRUS CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WED WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS...BUT WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THU. SOME FAR SRN AREAS
COULD GET TO NEAR 60 DEG AS EARLY AS THU AFTERNOON. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...AND THE RIDGE CONTINUES. ECMWF ACTUALLY SHOWS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFYING FRI AS A SHORT-WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. 850  MB
TEMPS WARM A BIT MORE FRI...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST
SAT FOR A LITTLE MORE WARMING. ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST A LITTLE LOW-LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW FRI NIGHT AND SAT. LITTLE CHANGE SUN... ALTHOUGH THE
GFS STARTS MOVING THE RIDGE EAST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG A LINE
FROM KUIL-KREO. THE GEFS AND NAEFS MEAN CHARTS VALID 00Z MON SUGGEST
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES. BIGGER MODEL
DIFFERENCES CROP UP MON...AS THE GFS TRIES TO BRING AN UPPER LOW
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE RIDGE. WOULD TEND TO
LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...SINCE THE RIDGE HAS BEEN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THIS WINTER. EVEN IF THE GFS TURNS OUT MORE CORRECT...IT
TENDS TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE A LITTLE TOO FAST. INTRODUCED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE THE SOUTH COAST AND COAST RANGE SECTIONS
MON NIGHT FOR NOW. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...WHILE MOISTURE LINGERED A LITTLE LONGER THAN
EXPECTED...CIGS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS PERSIST DUE TO A
STRATOCUMULUS DECK IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
LINGERS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE...
BUT THESE SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY AFTER 00Z AS THE AIR MASS
STABILIZES. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING...GENERALLY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...THROUGH 03Z AS HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE TAKE OVER.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER
SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE TYPICAL FOG-PRONE VALLEYS.
KEUG/KHIO MAY SEE SOME FOG OR FREEZING FOG BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
TEMPS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING WILL LIKELY GET BELOW
FREEZING IN MOST OUTLYING VALLEYS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT-MODERATE N-NW
FLOW SFC AND ALOFT...DIMINISHING TONIGHT. WITH THE LIGHT WIND AND
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...THERE IS A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SOME FOG AFFECTING KPDX BY SUNRISE.  WEAGLE

&&

.MARINE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LUMBER ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE OREGON COAST...AND WAS CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF
FLORENCE AS OF 2 PM. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE LOW DELAYED THE
SURGE OF NORTH WINDS ENOUGH TO MITIGATE THE NEED FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS...AND ANY GRADIENT
WIND WILL LIKELY BE PUSHED OFFSHORE AS THE LAND BREEZE TAKES OVER
AROUND SUNSET. THEREFORE ONLY THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS REMAIN IN
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS. THE SCA FOR SEAS HAS BEEN
MARGINAL ALL ALONG...AND WE WILL ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE AT 3 PM. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD STILL NOTE THAT SEAS WILL BE STEEP IN THE GUSTY NORTH
WINDS OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS
CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING.
WINDS DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION...TURNING LIGHT OFFSHORE. A THERMAL TROUGH
BUILDING NORTH FROM CA MAY CAUSE A MODEST INCREASE IN N WINDS
MIDWEEK...MAINLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BENIGN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...AS THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH.  WEAGLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 022224
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
223 PM PST MON MAR  2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRIER NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER SW WASHINGTON AND
NW OREGON LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A
SMALL AND COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER LARGE-SCALE FEATURES
INCLUDE A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 140W AND AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. VISIBLE SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD
FIELD FROM THE W SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE TO THE COAST AND ALSO OVER
THE CASCADE CREST AND INTO THE S WA CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

BRISK NLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TUE.
THE LATEST NAM AND ECMWF HINT AT A WEAK BACK-DOOR SYSTEM SLIDING S
ALONG THE ERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT WITH SOME VERY SPOTTY QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WILL KEEP THE MINIMAL POPS FOR THE HIGHER
CASCADES TONIGHT...BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ANYTHING WILL OCCUR. THE
BIGGER STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS. MAY ALSO
SEE A LITTLE EAST WIND DEVELOP IN THE GORGE LATE TONIGHT AS THE NAM
SHOWS A -3 TO -4 KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT BY 12Z TUE.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE SHORT TERM...AS IT HAS BEEN FOR MOST THE WINTER. SOME LOW-LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH WED SO NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL BE
RATHER LOCALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TUE NIGHT...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S FOR MANY INLAND VALLEYS. LATEST GFS AND NAM SHOW A WEAK
SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA 00Z-12Z TUE. WOULD EXPECT JUST HIGH
CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE. THE GFS AND ECMWF RUNS ALSO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE FLATTENING A BIT WED NIGHT AND THU. NAM CROSS-SECTION FROM NEAR
KAST THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE HINTS AT SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE...ABOVE 450 MB...WED NIGHT AND THU SO WOULD SUSPECT ANOTHER
SURGE OF CIRRUS CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WED WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS...BUT WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THU. SOME FAR SRN AREAS
COULD GET TO NEAR 60 DEG AS EARLY AS THU AFTERNOON. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...AND THE RIDGE CONTINUES. ECMWF ACTUALLY SHOWS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFYING FRI AS A SHORT-WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. 850  MB
TEMPS WARM A BIT MORE FRI...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST
SAT FOR A LITTLE MORE WARMING. ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST A LITTLE LOW-LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW FRI NIGHT AND SAT. LITTLE CHANGE SUN... ALTHOUGH THE
GFS STARTS MOVING THE RIDGE EAST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG A LINE
FROM KUIL-KREO. THE GEFS AND NAEFS MEAN CHARTS VALID 00Z MON SUGGEST
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES. BIGGER MODEL
DIFFERENCES CROP UP MON...AS THE GFS TRIES TO BRING AN UPPER LOW
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE RIDGE. WOULD TEND TO
LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...SINCE THE RIDGE HAS BEEN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THIS WINTER. EVEN IF THE GFS TURNS OUT MORE CORRECT...IT
TENDS TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE A LITTLE TOO FAST. INTRODUCED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE THE SOUTH COAST AND COAST RANGE SECTIONS
MON NIGHT FOR NOW. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...WHILE MOISTURE LINGERED A LITTLE LONGER THAN
EXPECTED...CIGS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS PERSIST DUE TO A
STRATOCUMULUS DECK IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
LINGERS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE...
BUT THESE SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY AFTER 00Z AS THE AIR MASS
STABILIZES. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING...GENERALLY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...THROUGH 03Z AS HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE TAKE OVER.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER
SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE TYPICAL FOG-PRONE VALLEYS.
KEUG/KHIO MAY SEE SOME FOG OR FREEZING FOG BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
TEMPS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING WILL LIKELY GET BELOW
FREEZING IN MOST OUTLYING VALLEYS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT-MODERATE N-NW
FLOW SFC AND ALOFT...DIMINISHING TONIGHT. WITH THE LIGHT WIND AND
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...THERE IS A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SOME FOG AFFECTING KPDX BY SUNRISE.  WEAGLE

&&

.MARINE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LUMBER ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE OREGON COAST...AND WAS CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF
FLORENCE AS OF 2 PM. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE LOW DELAYED THE
SURGE OF NORTH WINDS ENOUGH TO MITIGATE THE NEED FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS...AND ANY GRADIENT
WIND WILL LIKELY BE PUSHED OFFSHORE AS THE LAND BREEZE TAKES OVER
AROUND SUNSET. THEREFORE ONLY THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS REMAIN IN
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS. THE SCA FOR SEAS HAS BEEN
MARGINAL ALL ALONG...AND WE WILL ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE AT 3 PM. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD STILL NOTE THAT SEAS WILL BE STEEP IN THE GUSTY NORTH
WINDS OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS
CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING.
WINDS DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION...TURNING LIGHT OFFSHORE. A THERMAL TROUGH
BUILDING NORTH FROM CA MAY CAUSE A MODEST INCREASE IN N WINDS
MIDWEEK...MAINLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BENIGN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...AS THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH.  WEAGLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 021940
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1140 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system will pass through the region today with the
potential for light snow mainly for the Idaho Panhandle, along
with breezy conditions across much of the region this afternoon and
tonight. Much colder air moves in behind this system, with
temperatures well below average for the middle of the week. A dry
period, with moderating temperature will follow for the end of the
week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: we continue to track a shortwave dropping south
across western Canada, working into northeast WA and north ID.
This feature will result in a couple things: snow showers and
breezy conditions.

Thus far much of Cascades, south and eastern WA and north ID are
mostly cloudy to cloudy. Some light flurries are falling from
these clouds. I except some isolated snow showers are falling in
this as well, especially over the higher terrain. However I am not
seeing much in the way of measurable precipitation or any sign of
it on area webcams. However things should change going into this
afternoon.

Most of the short-range models take the incoming shortwave and
some unstable lapse rates associated to blossom scattered to
locally numerous snow showers through the afternoon, especially
starting somewhere toward the 1 to 3 pm. I`m tracking the edge of
that shortwave on WV Satellite, coming toward southeast BC
near Blue River. Models track it south-southeast into northeast
WA/north ID later this afternoon, along with steepening lapse
rates. This should be the impetus for the increasing showers. And
given the atmospheric thermal profile, this should fall mostly as
snow.

In these kind of convective situations it is very, very difficult
to pin-down snow accumulations, especially away from the mountains.
On average amounts could range from a trace to two-tenths of an
inch in the valleys, but the heavier convective or more persistent
bands could produce local amounts to an inch or so. Then the
other question is how effectively that would accumulate, again
outside of the mountains, given things like ground temperature and
air temperature which are expected to be above freezing. So watch
for some heavier bands and perhaps some accumulation, but better
confidence for snow actually sticking more effectively would be in
the mountains above about 2500-3500 feet. About 2 to 4 inches is
possible there.

Lastly winds will be on the rise. They are already increasing
down the Okanogan Valley and are expected to increase elsewhere
later this afternoon and evening. However winds may wait to
increase away from the Okanogan Valley until that shortwave gets
into the region, which could be around 3 to 7 pm.

I made updates to tweak PoPs for the day and evening, then dry
things out over much of the region overnight, save for perhaps
around the northern mountains and central Panhandle to Camas
Prairie.

Temperatures are tricky, but I did lower them some across the east
and raise them or leave them the same toward the lee of the
Cascades.  /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Incoming shortwave will increase snow showers this
afternoon, around the GEG to COE to PUW/LWS area. Some locally
heavier bands of snow are possible in the convective pattern and
incoming vort max. Primarily VFR conditions are expected, but
local MVFR conditions are possible in the heavier bands. The
snow shower threat and clouds will dissipate after 03 to 07Z.
Western TAF sites are expected to see little other than flurries.
Winds will be on the increase through the afternoon and values
remain breezy through the evening, before abating overnight.
/J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        41  19  34  17  42  23 /  40  30  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  39  17  35  14  43  20 /  60  50  10   0   0   0
Pullman        43  21  35  17  43  25 /  40  30  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       46  26  39  20  47  26 /  20  20  10   0   0   0
Colville       43  22  39  16  45  21 /  50  40  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      37  16  33  12  40  20 /  60  40  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        37  17  31  13  40  21 /  80  70  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     50  24  43  20  47  25 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      51  27  44  20  49  27 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           49  22  44  19  48  23 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 021940
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1140 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system will pass through the region today with the
potential for light snow mainly for the Idaho Panhandle, along
with breezy conditions across much of the region this afternoon and
tonight. Much colder air moves in behind this system, with
temperatures well below average for the middle of the week. A dry
period, with moderating temperature will follow for the end of the
week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: we continue to track a shortwave dropping south
across western Canada, working into northeast WA and north ID.
This feature will result in a couple things: snow showers and
breezy conditions.

Thus far much of Cascades, south and eastern WA and north ID are
mostly cloudy to cloudy. Some light flurries are falling from
these clouds. I except some isolated snow showers are falling in
this as well, especially over the higher terrain. However I am not
seeing much in the way of measurable precipitation or any sign of
it on area webcams. However things should change going into this
afternoon.

Most of the short-range models take the incoming shortwave and
some unstable lapse rates associated to blossom scattered to
locally numerous snow showers through the afternoon, especially
starting somewhere toward the 1 to 3 pm. I`m tracking the edge of
that shortwave on WV Satellite, coming toward southeast BC
near Blue River. Models track it south-southeast into northeast
WA/north ID later this afternoon, along with steepening lapse
rates. This should be the impetus for the increasing showers. And
given the atmospheric thermal profile, this should fall mostly as
snow.

In these kind of convective situations it is very, very difficult
to pin-down snow accumulations, especially away from the mountains.
On average amounts could range from a trace to two-tenths of an
inch in the valleys, but the heavier convective or more persistent
bands could produce local amounts to an inch or so. Then the
other question is how effectively that would accumulate, again
outside of the mountains, given things like ground temperature and
air temperature which are expected to be above freezing. So watch
for some heavier bands and perhaps some accumulation, but better
confidence for snow actually sticking more effectively would be in
the mountains above about 2500-3500 feet. About 2 to 4 inches is
possible there.

Lastly winds will be on the rise. They are already increasing
down the Okanogan Valley and are expected to increase elsewhere
later this afternoon and evening. However winds may wait to
increase away from the Okanogan Valley until that shortwave gets
into the region, which could be around 3 to 7 pm.

I made updates to tweak PoPs for the day and evening, then dry
things out over much of the region overnight, save for perhaps
around the northern mountains and central Panhandle to Camas
Prairie.

Temperatures are tricky, but I did lower them some across the east
and raise them or leave them the same toward the lee of the
Cascades.  /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Incoming shortwave will increase snow showers this
afternoon, around the GEG to COE to PUW/LWS area. Some locally
heavier bands of snow are possible in the convective pattern and
incoming vort max. Primarily VFR conditions are expected, but
local MVFR conditions are possible in the heavier bands. The
snow shower threat and clouds will dissipate after 03 to 07Z.
Western TAF sites are expected to see little other than flurries.
Winds will be on the increase through the afternoon and values
remain breezy through the evening, before abating overnight.
/J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        41  19  34  17  42  23 /  40  30  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  39  17  35  14  43  20 /  60  50  10   0   0   0
Pullman        43  21  35  17  43  25 /  40  30  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       46  26  39  20  47  26 /  20  20  10   0   0   0
Colville       43  22  39  16  45  21 /  50  40  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      37  16  33  12  40  20 /  60  40  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        37  17  31  13  40  21 /  80  70  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     50  24  43  20  47  25 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      51  27  44  20  49  27 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           49  22  44  19  48  23 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 021940
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1140 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system will pass through the region today with the
potential for light snow mainly for the Idaho Panhandle, along
with breezy conditions across much of the region this afternoon and
tonight. Much colder air moves in behind this system, with
temperatures well below average for the middle of the week. A dry
period, with moderating temperature will follow for the end of the
week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: we continue to track a shortwave dropping south
across western Canada, working into northeast WA and north ID.
This feature will result in a couple things: snow showers and
breezy conditions.

Thus far much of Cascades, south and eastern WA and north ID are
mostly cloudy to cloudy. Some light flurries are falling from
these clouds. I except some isolated snow showers are falling in
this as well, especially over the higher terrain. However I am not
seeing much in the way of measurable precipitation or any sign of
it on area webcams. However things should change going into this
afternoon.

Most of the short-range models take the incoming shortwave and
some unstable lapse rates associated to blossom scattered to
locally numerous snow showers through the afternoon, especially
starting somewhere toward the 1 to 3 pm. I`m tracking the edge of
that shortwave on WV Satellite, coming toward southeast BC
near Blue River. Models track it south-southeast into northeast
WA/north ID later this afternoon, along with steepening lapse
rates. This should be the impetus for the increasing showers. And
given the atmospheric thermal profile, this should fall mostly as
snow.

In these kind of convective situations it is very, very difficult
to pin-down snow accumulations, especially away from the mountains.
On average amounts could range from a trace to two-tenths of an
inch in the valleys, but the heavier convective or more persistent
bands could produce local amounts to an inch or so. Then the
other question is how effectively that would accumulate, again
outside of the mountains, given things like ground temperature and
air temperature which are expected to be above freezing. So watch
for some heavier bands and perhaps some accumulation, but better
confidence for snow actually sticking more effectively would be in
the mountains above about 2500-3500 feet. About 2 to 4 inches is
possible there.

Lastly winds will be on the rise. They are already increasing
down the Okanogan Valley and are expected to increase elsewhere
later this afternoon and evening. However winds may wait to
increase away from the Okanogan Valley until that shortwave gets
into the region, which could be around 3 to 7 pm.

I made updates to tweak PoPs for the day and evening, then dry
things out over much of the region overnight, save for perhaps
around the northern mountains and central Panhandle to Camas
Prairie.

Temperatures are tricky, but I did lower them some across the east
and raise them or leave them the same toward the lee of the
Cascades.  /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Incoming shortwave will increase snow showers this
afternoon, around the GEG to COE to PUW/LWS area. Some locally
heavier bands of snow are possible in the convective pattern and
incoming vort max. Primarily VFR conditions are expected, but
local MVFR conditions are possible in the heavier bands. The
snow shower threat and clouds will dissipate after 03 to 07Z.
Western TAF sites are expected to see little other than flurries.
Winds will be on the increase through the afternoon and values
remain breezy through the evening, before abating overnight.
/J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        41  19  34  17  42  23 /  40  30  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  39  17  35  14  43  20 /  60  50  10   0   0   0
Pullman        43  21  35  17  43  25 /  40  30  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       46  26  39  20  47  26 /  20  20  10   0   0   0
Colville       43  22  39  16  45  21 /  50  40  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      37  16  33  12  40  20 /  60  40  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        37  17  31  13  40  21 /  80  70  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     50  24  43  20  47  25 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      51  27  44  20  49  27 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           49  22  44  19  48  23 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 021940
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1140 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system will pass through the region today with the
potential for light snow mainly for the Idaho Panhandle, along
with breezy conditions across much of the region this afternoon and
tonight. Much colder air moves in behind this system, with
temperatures well below average for the middle of the week. A dry
period, with moderating temperature will follow for the end of the
week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: we continue to track a shortwave dropping south
across western Canada, working into northeast WA and north ID.
This feature will result in a couple things: snow showers and
breezy conditions.

Thus far much of Cascades, south and eastern WA and north ID are
mostly cloudy to cloudy. Some light flurries are falling from
these clouds. I except some isolated snow showers are falling in
this as well, especially over the higher terrain. However I am not
seeing much in the way of measurable precipitation or any sign of
it on area webcams. However things should change going into this
afternoon.

Most of the short-range models take the incoming shortwave and
some unstable lapse rates associated to blossom scattered to
locally numerous snow showers through the afternoon, especially
starting somewhere toward the 1 to 3 pm. I`m tracking the edge of
that shortwave on WV Satellite, coming toward southeast BC
near Blue River. Models track it south-southeast into northeast
WA/north ID later this afternoon, along with steepening lapse
rates. This should be the impetus for the increasing showers. And
given the atmospheric thermal profile, this should fall mostly as
snow.

In these kind of convective situations it is very, very difficult
to pin-down snow accumulations, especially away from the mountains.
On average amounts could range from a trace to two-tenths of an
inch in the valleys, but the heavier convective or more persistent
bands could produce local amounts to an inch or so. Then the
other question is how effectively that would accumulate, again
outside of the mountains, given things like ground temperature and
air temperature which are expected to be above freezing. So watch
for some heavier bands and perhaps some accumulation, but better
confidence for snow actually sticking more effectively would be in
the mountains above about 2500-3500 feet. About 2 to 4 inches is
possible there.

Lastly winds will be on the rise. They are already increasing
down the Okanogan Valley and are expected to increase elsewhere
later this afternoon and evening. However winds may wait to
increase away from the Okanogan Valley until that shortwave gets
into the region, which could be around 3 to 7 pm.

I made updates to tweak PoPs for the day and evening, then dry
things out over much of the region overnight, save for perhaps
around the northern mountains and central Panhandle to Camas
Prairie.

Temperatures are tricky, but I did lower them some across the east
and raise them or leave them the same toward the lee of the
Cascades.  /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Incoming shortwave will increase snow showers this
afternoon, around the GEG to COE to PUW/LWS area. Some locally
heavier bands of snow are possible in the convective pattern and
incoming vort max. Primarily VFR conditions are expected, but
local MVFR conditions are possible in the heavier bands. The
snow shower threat and clouds will dissipate after 03 to 07Z.
Western TAF sites are expected to see little other than flurries.
Winds will be on the increase through the afternoon and values
remain breezy through the evening, before abating overnight.
/J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        41  19  34  17  42  23 /  40  30  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  39  17  35  14  43  20 /  60  50  10   0   0   0
Pullman        43  21  35  17  43  25 /  40  30  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       46  26  39  20  47  26 /  20  20  10   0   0   0
Colville       43  22  39  16  45  21 /  50  40  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      37  16  33  12  40  20 /  60  40  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        37  17  31  13  40  21 /  80  70  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     50  24  43  20  47  25 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      51  27  44  20  49  27 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           49  22  44  19  48  23 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 021750
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
949 AM PST MON MAR  2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG THE SOUTH OREGON AND
NORTH CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH
TODAY. DRIER NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER SW WASHINGTON AND NW
OREGON LATER TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN SMALL AND COMPACT
UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE N CALIFORNIA COAST. INFRA-RED
IMAGERY INDICATES RAPID CLEARING ALONG THE WA AND N OREGON COAST AS
OF 17Z. KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ANY APPRECIABLE ECHOES. THE LATEST HRRR RUN DEPICTS THESE TRENDS
WELL. CASCADE WEB CAMS ALSO SHOWING CLEARING SKIES. OVERALL QPF WITH
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WAS RATHER ANEMIC...ALTHOUGH THE HOODOO SKI AREA
CAM SHOWS A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE PARKING LOT. SKIES WILL CONTINUE
TO CLEAR NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL
TAKE LONGER DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE MID-CLOUD LAYER THAT EXISTS.

BRISK NLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TUE.
THE LATEST NAM HINTS AT A WEAK BACK-DOOR SYSTEM SLIDING S ALONG THE
ERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT WITH SOME VERY SPOTTY QPF ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. THE 00Z ECMWF ALSO SHOWED THIS FEATURE. WILL KEEP THE MINIMAL
POPS FOR THE HIGHER CASCADES TONIGHT...BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT
ANYTHING WILL OCCUR. BIGGER STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPS. MAY ALSO SEE A LITTLE EAST WIND DEVELOP IN THE GORGE
LATE TONIGHT AS THE NAM SHOWS A -3 TO -4 KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT BY 12Z
TUE.

UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE...AS IT HAS BEEN FOR
MOST THE WINTER. SOME LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH WED SO
NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL BE RATHER LOCALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TUE NIGHT...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MANY INLAND VALLEYS.
WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
LINGERS WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER THE NE PACIFIC
AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC JET STREAM
WELL TO OUR NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...AS MOST GUIDANCE PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE
IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR LINGERING THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OREGON COAST. EXPECT VFR ALL
AREAS BY 21Z AS CLOUDS LIFT/CLEAR...ASIDE FROM SOME SCT MTN
OBSCURATIONS. DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT
MOST AREAS...THOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE TYPICAL FOG-
PRONE VALLEYS. KEUG/KHIO MAY SEE SOME FOG/FREEZING FOG BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY GET BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
OUTLYING VALLEYS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT-MODERATE
N-NW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT...DIMINISHING TONIGHT. SCATTERED LOWER
CLOUDS AROUND 1000-1500 FT THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT/CLEAR OUT BY
20Z.  WEAGLE

&&

.MARINE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF NEWPORT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
WASHINGTON. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR WINDS IN OUR SOUTHERN WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM. THE GUSTY N WINDS COMBINED WITH A LITTLE BIT OF SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO WHIP UP STEEP SEAS IN OUR SOUTHERN WATERS...ESPECIALLY
OUTSIDE OF 30 NM OFFSHORE. WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION...TURNING LIGHT OFFSHORE. A THERMAL TROUGH
BUILDING NORTH FROM CA MAY CAUSE ANOTHER INCREASE IN N WINDS
MIDWEEK...MAINLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BENIGN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...AS THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH.  WEAGLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 021750
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
949 AM PST MON MAR  2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG THE SOUTH OREGON AND
NORTH CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH
TODAY. DRIER NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER SW WASHINGTON AND NW
OREGON LATER TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN SMALL AND COMPACT
UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE N CALIFORNIA COAST. INFRA-RED
IMAGERY INDICATES RAPID CLEARING ALONG THE WA AND N OREGON COAST AS
OF 17Z. KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ANY APPRECIABLE ECHOES. THE LATEST HRRR RUN DEPICTS THESE TRENDS
WELL. CASCADE WEB CAMS ALSO SHOWING CLEARING SKIES. OVERALL QPF WITH
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WAS RATHER ANEMIC...ALTHOUGH THE HOODOO SKI AREA
CAM SHOWS A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE PARKING LOT. SKIES WILL CONTINUE
TO CLEAR NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL
TAKE LONGER DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE MID-CLOUD LAYER THAT EXISTS.

BRISK NLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TUE.
THE LATEST NAM HINTS AT A WEAK BACK-DOOR SYSTEM SLIDING S ALONG THE
ERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT WITH SOME VERY SPOTTY QPF ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. THE 00Z ECMWF ALSO SHOWED THIS FEATURE. WILL KEEP THE MINIMAL
POPS FOR THE HIGHER CASCADES TONIGHT...BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT
ANYTHING WILL OCCUR. BIGGER STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPS. MAY ALSO SEE A LITTLE EAST WIND DEVELOP IN THE GORGE
LATE TONIGHT AS THE NAM SHOWS A -3 TO -4 KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT BY 12Z
TUE.

UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE...AS IT HAS BEEN FOR
MOST THE WINTER. SOME LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH WED SO
NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL BE RATHER LOCALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TUE NIGHT...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MANY INLAND VALLEYS.
WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
LINGERS WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER THE NE PACIFIC
AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC JET STREAM
WELL TO OUR NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...AS MOST GUIDANCE PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE
IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR LINGERING THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OREGON COAST. EXPECT VFR ALL
AREAS BY 21Z AS CLOUDS LIFT/CLEAR...ASIDE FROM SOME SCT MTN
OBSCURATIONS. DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT
MOST AREAS...THOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE TYPICAL FOG-
PRONE VALLEYS. KEUG/KHIO MAY SEE SOME FOG/FREEZING FOG BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY GET BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
OUTLYING VALLEYS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT-MODERATE
N-NW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT...DIMINISHING TONIGHT. SCATTERED LOWER
CLOUDS AROUND 1000-1500 FT THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT/CLEAR OUT BY
20Z.  WEAGLE

&&

.MARINE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF NEWPORT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
WASHINGTON. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR WINDS IN OUR SOUTHERN WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM. THE GUSTY N WINDS COMBINED WITH A LITTLE BIT OF SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO WHIP UP STEEP SEAS IN OUR SOUTHERN WATERS...ESPECIALLY
OUTSIDE OF 30 NM OFFSHORE. WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION...TURNING LIGHT OFFSHORE. A THERMAL TROUGH
BUILDING NORTH FROM CA MAY CAUSE ANOTHER INCREASE IN N WINDS
MIDWEEK...MAINLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BENIGN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...AS THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH.  WEAGLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 021750
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
949 AM PST MON MAR  2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG THE SOUTH OREGON AND
NORTH CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH
TODAY. DRIER NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER SW WASHINGTON AND NW
OREGON LATER TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN SMALL AND COMPACT
UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE N CALIFORNIA COAST. INFRA-RED
IMAGERY INDICATES RAPID CLEARING ALONG THE WA AND N OREGON COAST AS
OF 17Z. KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ANY APPRECIABLE ECHOES. THE LATEST HRRR RUN DEPICTS THESE TRENDS
WELL. CASCADE WEB CAMS ALSO SHOWING CLEARING SKIES. OVERALL QPF WITH
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WAS RATHER ANEMIC...ALTHOUGH THE HOODOO SKI AREA
CAM SHOWS A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE PARKING LOT. SKIES WILL CONTINUE
TO CLEAR NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL
TAKE LONGER DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE MID-CLOUD LAYER THAT EXISTS.

BRISK NLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TUE.
THE LATEST NAM HINTS AT A WEAK BACK-DOOR SYSTEM SLIDING S ALONG THE
ERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT WITH SOME VERY SPOTTY QPF ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. THE 00Z ECMWF ALSO SHOWED THIS FEATURE. WILL KEEP THE MINIMAL
POPS FOR THE HIGHER CASCADES TONIGHT...BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT
ANYTHING WILL OCCUR. BIGGER STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPS. MAY ALSO SEE A LITTLE EAST WIND DEVELOP IN THE GORGE
LATE TONIGHT AS THE NAM SHOWS A -3 TO -4 KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT BY 12Z
TUE.

UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE...AS IT HAS BEEN FOR
MOST THE WINTER. SOME LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH WED SO
NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL BE RATHER LOCALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TUE NIGHT...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MANY INLAND VALLEYS.
WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
LINGERS WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER THE NE PACIFIC
AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC JET STREAM
WELL TO OUR NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...AS MOST GUIDANCE PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE
IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR LINGERING THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OREGON COAST. EXPECT VFR ALL
AREAS BY 21Z AS CLOUDS LIFT/CLEAR...ASIDE FROM SOME SCT MTN
OBSCURATIONS. DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT
MOST AREAS...THOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE TYPICAL FOG-
PRONE VALLEYS. KEUG/KHIO MAY SEE SOME FOG/FREEZING FOG BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY GET BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
OUTLYING VALLEYS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT-MODERATE
N-NW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT...DIMINISHING TONIGHT. SCATTERED LOWER
CLOUDS AROUND 1000-1500 FT THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT/CLEAR OUT BY
20Z.  WEAGLE

&&

.MARINE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF NEWPORT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
WASHINGTON. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR WINDS IN OUR SOUTHERN WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM. THE GUSTY N WINDS COMBINED WITH A LITTLE BIT OF SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO WHIP UP STEEP SEAS IN OUR SOUTHERN WATERS...ESPECIALLY
OUTSIDE OF 30 NM OFFSHORE. WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION...TURNING LIGHT OFFSHORE. A THERMAL TROUGH
BUILDING NORTH FROM CA MAY CAUSE ANOTHER INCREASE IN N WINDS
MIDWEEK...MAINLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BENIGN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...AS THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH.  WEAGLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 021750
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
949 AM PST MON MAR  2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG THE SOUTH OREGON AND
NORTH CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH
TODAY. DRIER NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER SW WASHINGTON AND NW
OREGON LATER TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN SMALL AND COMPACT
UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE N CALIFORNIA COAST. INFRA-RED
IMAGERY INDICATES RAPID CLEARING ALONG THE WA AND N OREGON COAST AS
OF 17Z. KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ANY APPRECIABLE ECHOES. THE LATEST HRRR RUN DEPICTS THESE TRENDS
WELL. CASCADE WEB CAMS ALSO SHOWING CLEARING SKIES. OVERALL QPF WITH
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WAS RATHER ANEMIC...ALTHOUGH THE HOODOO SKI AREA
CAM SHOWS A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE PARKING LOT. SKIES WILL CONTINUE
TO CLEAR NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL
TAKE LONGER DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE MID-CLOUD LAYER THAT EXISTS.

BRISK NLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TUE.
THE LATEST NAM HINTS AT A WEAK BACK-DOOR SYSTEM SLIDING S ALONG THE
ERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT WITH SOME VERY SPOTTY QPF ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. THE 00Z ECMWF ALSO SHOWED THIS FEATURE. WILL KEEP THE MINIMAL
POPS FOR THE HIGHER CASCADES TONIGHT...BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT
ANYTHING WILL OCCUR. BIGGER STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPS. MAY ALSO SEE A LITTLE EAST WIND DEVELOP IN THE GORGE
LATE TONIGHT AS THE NAM SHOWS A -3 TO -4 KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT BY 12Z
TUE.

UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE...AS IT HAS BEEN FOR
MOST THE WINTER. SOME LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH WED SO
NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL BE RATHER LOCALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TUE NIGHT...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MANY INLAND VALLEYS.
WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
LINGERS WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER THE NE PACIFIC
AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC JET STREAM
WELL TO OUR NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...AS MOST GUIDANCE PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE
IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR LINGERING THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OREGON COAST. EXPECT VFR ALL
AREAS BY 21Z AS CLOUDS LIFT/CLEAR...ASIDE FROM SOME SCT MTN
OBSCURATIONS. DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT
MOST AREAS...THOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE TYPICAL FOG-
PRONE VALLEYS. KEUG/KHIO MAY SEE SOME FOG/FREEZING FOG BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY GET BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
OUTLYING VALLEYS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT-MODERATE
N-NW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT...DIMINISHING TONIGHT. SCATTERED LOWER
CLOUDS AROUND 1000-1500 FT THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT/CLEAR OUT BY
20Z.  WEAGLE

&&

.MARINE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF NEWPORT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
WASHINGTON. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR WINDS IN OUR SOUTHERN WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM. THE GUSTY N WINDS COMBINED WITH A LITTLE BIT OF SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO WHIP UP STEEP SEAS IN OUR SOUTHERN WATERS...ESPECIALLY
OUTSIDE OF 30 NM OFFSHORE. WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION...TURNING LIGHT OFFSHORE. A THERMAL TROUGH
BUILDING NORTH FROM CA MAY CAUSE ANOTHER INCREASE IN N WINDS
MIDWEEK...MAINLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BENIGN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...AS THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH.  WEAGLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 021750
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
949 AM PST MON MAR  2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG THE SOUTH OREGON AND
NORTH CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH
TODAY. DRIER NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER SW WASHINGTON AND NW
OREGON LATER TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN SMALL AND COMPACT
UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE N CALIFORNIA COAST. INFRA-RED
IMAGERY INDICATES RAPID CLEARING ALONG THE WA AND N OREGON COAST AS
OF 17Z. KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ANY APPRECIABLE ECHOES. THE LATEST HRRR RUN DEPICTS THESE TRENDS
WELL. CASCADE WEB CAMS ALSO SHOWING CLEARING SKIES. OVERALL QPF WITH
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WAS RATHER ANEMIC...ALTHOUGH THE HOODOO SKI AREA
CAM SHOWS A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE PARKING LOT. SKIES WILL CONTINUE
TO CLEAR NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL
TAKE LONGER DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE MID-CLOUD LAYER THAT EXISTS.

BRISK NLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TUE.
THE LATEST NAM HINTS AT A WEAK BACK-DOOR SYSTEM SLIDING S ALONG THE
ERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT WITH SOME VERY SPOTTY QPF ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. THE 00Z ECMWF ALSO SHOWED THIS FEATURE. WILL KEEP THE MINIMAL
POPS FOR THE HIGHER CASCADES TONIGHT...BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT
ANYTHING WILL OCCUR. BIGGER STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPS. MAY ALSO SEE A LITTLE EAST WIND DEVELOP IN THE GORGE
LATE TONIGHT AS THE NAM SHOWS A -3 TO -4 KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT BY 12Z
TUE.

UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE...AS IT HAS BEEN FOR
MOST THE WINTER. SOME LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH WED SO
NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL BE RATHER LOCALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TUE NIGHT...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MANY INLAND VALLEYS.
WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
LINGERS WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER THE NE PACIFIC
AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC JET STREAM
WELL TO OUR NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...AS MOST GUIDANCE PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE
IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR LINGERING THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OREGON COAST. EXPECT VFR ALL
AREAS BY 21Z AS CLOUDS LIFT/CLEAR...ASIDE FROM SOME SCT MTN
OBSCURATIONS. DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT
MOST AREAS...THOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE TYPICAL FOG-
PRONE VALLEYS. KEUG/KHIO MAY SEE SOME FOG/FREEZING FOG BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY GET BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
OUTLYING VALLEYS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT-MODERATE
N-NW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT...DIMINISHING TONIGHT. SCATTERED LOWER
CLOUDS AROUND 1000-1500 FT THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT/CLEAR OUT BY
20Z.  WEAGLE

&&

.MARINE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF NEWPORT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
WASHINGTON. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR WINDS IN OUR SOUTHERN WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM. THE GUSTY N WINDS COMBINED WITH A LITTLE BIT OF SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO WHIP UP STEEP SEAS IN OUR SOUTHERN WATERS...ESPECIALLY
OUTSIDE OF 30 NM OFFSHORE. WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION...TURNING LIGHT OFFSHORE. A THERMAL TROUGH
BUILDING NORTH FROM CA MAY CAUSE ANOTHER INCREASE IN N WINDS
MIDWEEK...MAINLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BENIGN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...AS THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH.  WEAGLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 021750
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
949 AM PST MON MAR  2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG THE SOUTH OREGON AND
NORTH CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH
TODAY. DRIER NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER SW WASHINGTON AND NW
OREGON LATER TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN SMALL AND COMPACT
UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE N CALIFORNIA COAST. INFRA-RED
IMAGERY INDICATES RAPID CLEARING ALONG THE WA AND N OREGON COAST AS
OF 17Z. KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ANY APPRECIABLE ECHOES. THE LATEST HRRR RUN DEPICTS THESE TRENDS
WELL. CASCADE WEB CAMS ALSO SHOWING CLEARING SKIES. OVERALL QPF WITH
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WAS RATHER ANEMIC...ALTHOUGH THE HOODOO SKI AREA
CAM SHOWS A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE PARKING LOT. SKIES WILL CONTINUE
TO CLEAR NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL
TAKE LONGER DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE MID-CLOUD LAYER THAT EXISTS.

BRISK NLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TUE.
THE LATEST NAM HINTS AT A WEAK BACK-DOOR SYSTEM SLIDING S ALONG THE
ERN CASCADE SLOPES TONIGHT WITH SOME VERY SPOTTY QPF ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. THE 00Z ECMWF ALSO SHOWED THIS FEATURE. WILL KEEP THE MINIMAL
POPS FOR THE HIGHER CASCADES TONIGHT...BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT
ANYTHING WILL OCCUR. BIGGER STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPS. MAY ALSO SEE A LITTLE EAST WIND DEVELOP IN THE GORGE
LATE TONIGHT AS THE NAM SHOWS A -3 TO -4 KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT BY 12Z
TUE.

UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE...AS IT HAS BEEN FOR
MOST THE WINTER. SOME LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH WED SO
NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL BE RATHER LOCALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TUE NIGHT...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MANY INLAND VALLEYS.
WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
LINGERS WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER THE NE PACIFIC
AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC JET STREAM
WELL TO OUR NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...AS MOST GUIDANCE PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE
IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR LINGERING THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OREGON COAST. EXPECT VFR ALL
AREAS BY 21Z AS CLOUDS LIFT/CLEAR...ASIDE FROM SOME SCT MTN
OBSCURATIONS. DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT
MOST AREAS...THOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE TYPICAL FOG-
PRONE VALLEYS. KEUG/KHIO MAY SEE SOME FOG/FREEZING FOG BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY GET BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
OUTLYING VALLEYS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT-MODERATE
N-NW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT...DIMINISHING TONIGHT. SCATTERED LOWER
CLOUDS AROUND 1000-1500 FT THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT/CLEAR OUT BY
20Z.  WEAGLE

&&

.MARINE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF NEWPORT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
WASHINGTON. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR WINDS IN OUR SOUTHERN WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM. THE GUSTY N WINDS COMBINED WITH A LITTLE BIT OF SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO WHIP UP STEEP SEAS IN OUR SOUTHERN WATERS...ESPECIALLY
OUTSIDE OF 30 NM OFFSHORE. WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION...TURNING LIGHT OFFSHORE. A THERMAL TROUGH
BUILDING NORTH FROM CA MAY CAUSE ANOTHER INCREASE IN N WINDS
MIDWEEK...MAINLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BENIGN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...AS THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH.  WEAGLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 021657
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM OVER WASHINGTON WILL MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A BREEZY NORTH WIND. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN DIGGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION
REMAINED DRY OR NEARLY DRY...THIS FEATURE BROUGHT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE REST OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. AT 2 AM SKIES WERE
STILL MAINLY CLOUDY...BUT PRECIPITATION WAS SPOTTY AND LIGHT. THE
AIR MASS IS RATHER COOL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
AND THE SNOW LEVEL AROUND 1500 FT.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER RIDGE
OFFSHORE ALONG 140W. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...WITH THE AIR MASS DRYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE TODAY. THE NORTHEAST SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN INCREASING OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH IN WESTERN
CANADA. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE BREEZY NORTH OR
NORTHEAST WINDS...WHICH WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE NORTH INTERIOR OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE FRASER RIVER.

DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS THE OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. CLEAR SKIES AND EASING NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL MEAN
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30S BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG OR FREEZING FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS IN THE SOUTH PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTH INTERIOR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS MAINLY 45 TO
55.

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND
DURING THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
RIDGE COULD BRUSH WESTERN WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME MODEL RUNS KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ENTIRELY DRY...AND IF ANY
PRECIPITATION FALLS IT WILL BE LIGHT AND MOST LIKELY LIMITED TO THE
NORTH COAST AND NORTH CASCADES.

THE MODELS ARE IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF
INDIVIDUAL MODELS HAS NOT BEEN VERY GOOD EITHER. FOR NOW SUFFICE IT
TO SAY THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BUILD OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY AND DURING THE WEEKEND FOR MORE DRY WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL KEEP THE FLOW
STRONG NLY THRU TONIGHT. MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL NLY FLOW WILL
BECOME ELY TONIGHT. AREAS OF CIGS IN THE 1-3K FT RANGE OVER THE
INTERIOR THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE BY 2000 UTC.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT OCNL CIGS NEAR 015 THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE NLY
AT GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS...WITH OCNL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG HIGH PRES OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH LOWER PRES OVER
OREGON WILL RESULT IN MODERATELY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY. A
1037 MB HIGH DEVELOPING OVER MONTANA WITH LOWER PRES OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME EASTERLY OR OFFSHORE
TONIGHT.

SO FAR...THE NORTHERLY PRES GRADIENT HAS BEEN RUNNING WEAKER THAN
WHAT THE MODELS PREDICTED. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFS MODEL PREDICTED
THAT THE BELLINGHAM TO WILLIAMS LAKE /BRITISH COLUMBIA/ PRES
GRADIENT WOULD BE -8.4 MB AT 4 AM THIS MORNING. THE OBSERVED PRES
GRADIENT WAS -3.9 MB. THEREFORE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
FORECAST SPEEDS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH IN SOME PLACES
ESPECIALLY FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.

     GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KSEW 021657
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM OVER WASHINGTON WILL MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A BREEZY NORTH WIND. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN DIGGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION
REMAINED DRY OR NEARLY DRY...THIS FEATURE BROUGHT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE REST OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. AT 2 AM SKIES WERE
STILL MAINLY CLOUDY...BUT PRECIPITATION WAS SPOTTY AND LIGHT. THE
AIR MASS IS RATHER COOL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
AND THE SNOW LEVEL AROUND 1500 FT.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER RIDGE
OFFSHORE ALONG 140W. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...WITH THE AIR MASS DRYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE TODAY. THE NORTHEAST SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN INCREASING OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH IN WESTERN
CANADA. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE BREEZY NORTH OR
NORTHEAST WINDS...WHICH WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE NORTH INTERIOR OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE FRASER RIVER.

DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS THE OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. CLEAR SKIES AND EASING NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL MEAN
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30S BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG OR FREEZING FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS IN THE SOUTH PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTH INTERIOR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS MAINLY 45 TO
55.

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND
DURING THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
RIDGE COULD BRUSH WESTERN WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME MODEL RUNS KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ENTIRELY DRY...AND IF ANY
PRECIPITATION FALLS IT WILL BE LIGHT AND MOST LIKELY LIMITED TO THE
NORTH COAST AND NORTH CASCADES.

THE MODELS ARE IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF
INDIVIDUAL MODELS HAS NOT BEEN VERY GOOD EITHER. FOR NOW SUFFICE IT
TO SAY THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BUILD OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY AND DURING THE WEEKEND FOR MORE DRY WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL KEEP THE FLOW
STRONG NLY THRU TONIGHT. MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL NLY FLOW WILL
BECOME ELY TONIGHT. AREAS OF CIGS IN THE 1-3K FT RANGE OVER THE
INTERIOR THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE BY 2000 UTC.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT OCNL CIGS NEAR 015 THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE NLY
AT GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS...WITH OCNL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG HIGH PRES OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH LOWER PRES OVER
OREGON WILL RESULT IN MODERATELY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY. A
1037 MB HIGH DEVELOPING OVER MONTANA WITH LOWER PRES OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME EASTERLY OR OFFSHORE
TONIGHT.

SO FAR...THE NORTHERLY PRES GRADIENT HAS BEEN RUNNING WEAKER THAN
WHAT THE MODELS PREDICTED. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFS MODEL PREDICTED
THAT THE BELLINGHAM TO WILLIAMS LAKE /BRITISH COLUMBIA/ PRES
GRADIENT WOULD BE -8.4 MB AT 4 AM THIS MORNING. THE OBSERVED PRES
GRADIENT WAS -3.9 MB. THEREFORE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
FORECAST SPEEDS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH IN SOME PLACES
ESPECIALLY FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.

     GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KSEW 021657
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM OVER WASHINGTON WILL MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A BREEZY NORTH WIND. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN DIGGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION
REMAINED DRY OR NEARLY DRY...THIS FEATURE BROUGHT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE REST OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. AT 2 AM SKIES WERE
STILL MAINLY CLOUDY...BUT PRECIPITATION WAS SPOTTY AND LIGHT. THE
AIR MASS IS RATHER COOL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
AND THE SNOW LEVEL AROUND 1500 FT.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER RIDGE
OFFSHORE ALONG 140W. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...WITH THE AIR MASS DRYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE TODAY. THE NORTHEAST SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN INCREASING OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH IN WESTERN
CANADA. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE BREEZY NORTH OR
NORTHEAST WINDS...WHICH WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE NORTH INTERIOR OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE FRASER RIVER.

DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS THE OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. CLEAR SKIES AND EASING NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL MEAN
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30S BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG OR FREEZING FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS IN THE SOUTH PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTH INTERIOR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS MAINLY 45 TO
55.

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND
DURING THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
RIDGE COULD BRUSH WESTERN WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME MODEL RUNS KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ENTIRELY DRY...AND IF ANY
PRECIPITATION FALLS IT WILL BE LIGHT AND MOST LIKELY LIMITED TO THE
NORTH COAST AND NORTH CASCADES.

THE MODELS ARE IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF
INDIVIDUAL MODELS HAS NOT BEEN VERY GOOD EITHER. FOR NOW SUFFICE IT
TO SAY THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BUILD OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY AND DURING THE WEEKEND FOR MORE DRY WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL KEEP THE FLOW
STRONG NLY THRU TONIGHT. MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL NLY FLOW WILL
BECOME ELY TONIGHT. AREAS OF CIGS IN THE 1-3K FT RANGE OVER THE
INTERIOR THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE BY 2000 UTC.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT OCNL CIGS NEAR 015 THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE NLY
AT GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS...WITH OCNL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG HIGH PRES OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH LOWER PRES OVER
OREGON WILL RESULT IN MODERATELY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY. A
1037 MB HIGH DEVELOPING OVER MONTANA WITH LOWER PRES OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME EASTERLY OR OFFSHORE
TONIGHT.

SO FAR...THE NORTHERLY PRES GRADIENT HAS BEEN RUNNING WEAKER THAN
WHAT THE MODELS PREDICTED. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFS MODEL PREDICTED
THAT THE BELLINGHAM TO WILLIAMS LAKE /BRITISH COLUMBIA/ PRES
GRADIENT WOULD BE -8.4 MB AT 4 AM THIS MORNING. THE OBSERVED PRES
GRADIENT WAS -3.9 MB. THEREFORE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
FORECAST SPEEDS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH IN SOME PLACES
ESPECIALLY FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.

     GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KSEW 021657
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM OVER WASHINGTON WILL MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A BREEZY NORTH WIND. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN DIGGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION
REMAINED DRY OR NEARLY DRY...THIS FEATURE BROUGHT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE REST OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. AT 2 AM SKIES WERE
STILL MAINLY CLOUDY...BUT PRECIPITATION WAS SPOTTY AND LIGHT. THE
AIR MASS IS RATHER COOL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
AND THE SNOW LEVEL AROUND 1500 FT.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER RIDGE
OFFSHORE ALONG 140W. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...WITH THE AIR MASS DRYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE TODAY. THE NORTHEAST SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN INCREASING OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH IN WESTERN
CANADA. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE BREEZY NORTH OR
NORTHEAST WINDS...WHICH WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE NORTH INTERIOR OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE FRASER RIVER.

DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS THE OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. CLEAR SKIES AND EASING NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL MEAN
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30S BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG OR FREEZING FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS IN THE SOUTH PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTH INTERIOR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS MAINLY 45 TO
55.

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND
DURING THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
RIDGE COULD BRUSH WESTERN WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME MODEL RUNS KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ENTIRELY DRY...AND IF ANY
PRECIPITATION FALLS IT WILL BE LIGHT AND MOST LIKELY LIMITED TO THE
NORTH COAST AND NORTH CASCADES.

THE MODELS ARE IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF
INDIVIDUAL MODELS HAS NOT BEEN VERY GOOD EITHER. FOR NOW SUFFICE IT
TO SAY THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BUILD OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY AND DURING THE WEEKEND FOR MORE DRY WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL KEEP THE FLOW
STRONG NLY THRU TONIGHT. MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL NLY FLOW WILL
BECOME ELY TONIGHT. AREAS OF CIGS IN THE 1-3K FT RANGE OVER THE
INTERIOR THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE BY 2000 UTC.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT OCNL CIGS NEAR 015 THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE NLY
AT GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS...WITH OCNL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG HIGH PRES OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH LOWER PRES OVER
OREGON WILL RESULT IN MODERATELY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY. A
1037 MB HIGH DEVELOPING OVER MONTANA WITH LOWER PRES OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME EASTERLY OR OFFSHORE
TONIGHT.

SO FAR...THE NORTHERLY PRES GRADIENT HAS BEEN RUNNING WEAKER THAN
WHAT THE MODELS PREDICTED. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFS MODEL PREDICTED
THAT THE BELLINGHAM TO WILLIAMS LAKE /BRITISH COLUMBIA/ PRES
GRADIENT WOULD BE -8.4 MB AT 4 AM THIS MORNING. THE OBSERVED PRES
GRADIENT WAS -3.9 MB. THEREFORE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
FORECAST SPEEDS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH IN SOME PLACES
ESPECIALLY FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.

     GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KOTX 021202
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
402 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system will pass through the region today with the
potential for light snow mainly for the Idaho Panhandle, along
with breezy conditions across much of the region this afternoon and
tonight. Much colder air moves in behind this system, with
temperatures well below average for the middle of the week. A dry
period, with moderating temperature will follow for the end of the
week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
For Today and this evening...Satellite imagery is matching up
with model guidance showing a vigorous upper level low dropping
south along the Oregon coast this morning. Some wrap around
moisture should make it east of the Cascades this morning to
support some light snow near the north Cascade crest. Snow
accumulations will be very light.

Satellite imagery is also showing the second advertised low
dropping south through Alberta and will give our eastern zones a
glancing blow from late this morning through this evening. Snow
showers should be confined to east of a line from about Colville
to Walla Walla...with the focus over the Panhandle mountains.
Plenty of dynamical lift to work with, but this disturbance is
lacking in any deep moisture. As such while pops are fairly high
through the afternoon and early evening, precipitation amounts are
on the lighter side. Precipitation will be as snow down to the
valley floor. Amounts will vary from a trace to a couple of
hundredths for the lower elevations around Colville...Deer
Park...Spokane metro and Pullman. Around an inch for the northeast
mountains of Washington. The north and central Panhandle mountains
may see anywhere from 2-6 inches.

The northerly flow will result in much cooler air moving into
the region down north-south valleys. The cold air advection
combined with a tightening of the surface pressure gradient, and
30-35kt 850mb winds will increase the winds down the Okanogan
valley and spilling into the Waterville Plateau and the Columbia
basin. The Purcell trench is somewhat protected form this flow but
should still see increase north-northeast winds later this
afternoon and early this evening. Winds will increase by mid day
with sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts 30-35 mph through the
afternoon, before decreasing an hour or two after sunset. For the
Purcell trench and spilling into the Spokane-Coeur D`Alene
corridor and into the Palouse north-northeast winds around 20 mph
with gusts 25-30 mph will be possible. This will result in a very
brisk/raw afternoon for the forecast area.

Tonight through Tuesday night...The upper level low will push east
and high pressure will build out around 130-135w. This will put
the forecast area in a dry northwest to northerly flow. Dry air
will push into the region for a drying trend. Some mid level
clouds will linger over the Panhandle mountains, otherwise mostly
sunny conditions. Temperatures will cool considerably. Once the
winds die down this evening and with clearing skies there should
be ample radiational cooling. Minimum temperatures will drop into
the low teens to low 20s both Tuesday and Wednesday morning...with
a few single digits possible for some of our frost-pockets. Max
temperatures will struggle to rise only into the mid 30s to lower
40s. Which is will be 8-10 degrees below normal. Tobin

Wednesday through Thursday night...A weak impulse will track
across the region Wednesday but will likely result in just some
mid to high clouds. Northerly flow will keep temperatures below
seasonal normals for one more day before starting a slow climb to
more seasonal levels as the ridge axis moves toward the coast.
Cold northerly flow will be replaced by a northwest trajectory
that will bring more of a marine influence to the air mass. This
will allow temperatures to start the warming trend with an
increase of about 5 to 7 degrees expected Thursday and again
Thursday night.

Friday through Sunday...medium range models continue to be at odds
concerning a shortwave trough affecting the area Friday into
Friday night. The latest ECMWF guidance continues to bring this
feature southeast across much of the forecast area while the GFS
remains firm in keeping it well to our northeast. No changes made
to this portion of the forecast until models settle on a solution.
For now, low end PoPs will remain over the higher terrain.
temperatures will moderate as the synoptic flow shifts from
northerly to more westerly. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A weather disturbance will drop south through the
northeast portion of the forecast area this afternoon and result
in a good chance for -SHSN over the north and central Idaho
Panhandle. Showers will be possible as far west as KGEG-KCOE
corridor and at KPUW. The best chance by far will be at KCOE. Cigs
will drop to bkn050-060 after 20z but remain VFR through the
forecast period. KCOE may see brief MVFR cigs/vsby with any
heavier -SHSN. Further to the south and east the remainder of the
TAF sites will remain VFR. Winds will increase at KMWH/KEAT after
20z with sustained northerly winds 18-20kts and gusts 26-30kts
through 06z. KGEG-KCOE may see gusts as high 15-20kts out of the
northeast between 21z-03z. Tobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  19  34  17  42  23 /  30  10  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  42  17  35  14  43  20 /  50  20  10   0   0   0
Pullman        42  21  35  17  43  25 /  40  20  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       46  26  39  20  47  26 /  20  20  10   0   0   0
Colville       45  22  39  16  45  21 /  50  10  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      39  16  33  12  40  20 /  60  30  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        38  17  31  13  40  21 /  80  60  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     50  24  43  20  47  25 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      51  27  44  20  49  27 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           47  22  44  19  48  23 /  10   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 021202
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
402 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system will pass through the region today with the
potential for light snow mainly for the Idaho Panhandle, along
with breezy conditions across much of the region this afternoon and
tonight. Much colder air moves in behind this system, with
temperatures well below average for the middle of the week. A dry
period, with moderating temperature will follow for the end of the
week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
For Today and this evening...Satellite imagery is matching up
with model guidance showing a vigorous upper level low dropping
south along the Oregon coast this morning. Some wrap around
moisture should make it east of the Cascades this morning to
support some light snow near the north Cascade crest. Snow
accumulations will be very light.

Satellite imagery is also showing the second advertised low
dropping south through Alberta and will give our eastern zones a
glancing blow from late this morning through this evening. Snow
showers should be confined to east of a line from about Colville
to Walla Walla...with the focus over the Panhandle mountains.
Plenty of dynamical lift to work with, but this disturbance is
lacking in any deep moisture. As such while pops are fairly high
through the afternoon and early evening, precipitation amounts are
on the lighter side. Precipitation will be as snow down to the
valley floor. Amounts will vary from a trace to a couple of
hundredths for the lower elevations around Colville...Deer
Park...Spokane metro and Pullman. Around an inch for the northeast
mountains of Washington. The north and central Panhandle mountains
may see anywhere from 2-6 inches.

The northerly flow will result in much cooler air moving into
the region down north-south valleys. The cold air advection
combined with a tightening of the surface pressure gradient, and
30-35kt 850mb winds will increase the winds down the Okanogan
valley and spilling into the Waterville Plateau and the Columbia
basin. The Purcell trench is somewhat protected form this flow but
should still see increase north-northeast winds later this
afternoon and early this evening. Winds will increase by mid day
with sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts 30-35 mph through the
afternoon, before decreasing an hour or two after sunset. For the
Purcell trench and spilling into the Spokane-Coeur D`Alene
corridor and into the Palouse north-northeast winds around 20 mph
with gusts 25-30 mph will be possible. This will result in a very
brisk/raw afternoon for the forecast area.

Tonight through Tuesday night...The upper level low will push east
and high pressure will build out around 130-135w. This will put
the forecast area in a dry northwest to northerly flow. Dry air
will push into the region for a drying trend. Some mid level
clouds will linger over the Panhandle mountains, otherwise mostly
sunny conditions. Temperatures will cool considerably. Once the
winds die down this evening and with clearing skies there should
be ample radiational cooling. Minimum temperatures will drop into
the low teens to low 20s both Tuesday and Wednesday morning...with
a few single digits possible for some of our frost-pockets. Max
temperatures will struggle to rise only into the mid 30s to lower
40s. Which is will be 8-10 degrees below normal. Tobin

Wednesday through Thursday night...A weak impulse will track
across the region Wednesday but will likely result in just some
mid to high clouds. Northerly flow will keep temperatures below
seasonal normals for one more day before starting a slow climb to
more seasonal levels as the ridge axis moves toward the coast.
Cold northerly flow will be replaced by a northwest trajectory
that will bring more of a marine influence to the air mass. This
will allow temperatures to start the warming trend with an
increase of about 5 to 7 degrees expected Thursday and again
Thursday night.

Friday through Sunday...medium range models continue to be at odds
concerning a shortwave trough affecting the area Friday into
Friday night. The latest ECMWF guidance continues to bring this
feature southeast across much of the forecast area while the GFS
remains firm in keeping it well to our northeast. No changes made
to this portion of the forecast until models settle on a solution.
For now, low end PoPs will remain over the higher terrain.
temperatures will moderate as the synoptic flow shifts from
northerly to more westerly. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A weather disturbance will drop south through the
northeast portion of the forecast area this afternoon and result
in a good chance for -SHSN over the north and central Idaho
Panhandle. Showers will be possible as far west as KGEG-KCOE
corridor and at KPUW. The best chance by far will be at KCOE. Cigs
will drop to bkn050-060 after 20z but remain VFR through the
forecast period. KCOE may see brief MVFR cigs/vsby with any
heavier -SHSN. Further to the south and east the remainder of the
TAF sites will remain VFR. Winds will increase at KMWH/KEAT after
20z with sustained northerly winds 18-20kts and gusts 26-30kts
through 06z. KGEG-KCOE may see gusts as high 15-20kts out of the
northeast between 21z-03z. Tobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  19  34  17  42  23 /  30  10  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  42  17  35  14  43  20 /  50  20  10   0   0   0
Pullman        42  21  35  17  43  25 /  40  20  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       46  26  39  20  47  26 /  20  20  10   0   0   0
Colville       45  22  39  16  45  21 /  50  10  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      39  16  33  12  40  20 /  60  30  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        38  17  31  13  40  21 /  80  60  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     50  24  43  20  47  25 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      51  27  44  20  49  27 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           47  22  44  19  48  23 /  10   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 021202
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
402 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system will pass through the region today with the
potential for light snow mainly for the Idaho Panhandle, along
with breezy conditions across much of the region this afternoon and
tonight. Much colder air moves in behind this system, with
temperatures well below average for the middle of the week. A dry
period, with moderating temperature will follow for the end of the
week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
For Today and this evening...Satellite imagery is matching up
with model guidance showing a vigorous upper level low dropping
south along the Oregon coast this morning. Some wrap around
moisture should make it east of the Cascades this morning to
support some light snow near the north Cascade crest. Snow
accumulations will be very light.

Satellite imagery is also showing the second advertised low
dropping south through Alberta and will give our eastern zones a
glancing blow from late this morning through this evening. Snow
showers should be confined to east of a line from about Colville
to Walla Walla...with the focus over the Panhandle mountains.
Plenty of dynamical lift to work with, but this disturbance is
lacking in any deep moisture. As such while pops are fairly high
through the afternoon and early evening, precipitation amounts are
on the lighter side. Precipitation will be as snow down to the
valley floor. Amounts will vary from a trace to a couple of
hundredths for the lower elevations around Colville...Deer
Park...Spokane metro and Pullman. Around an inch for the northeast
mountains of Washington. The north and central Panhandle mountains
may see anywhere from 2-6 inches.

The northerly flow will result in much cooler air moving into
the region down north-south valleys. The cold air advection
combined with a tightening of the surface pressure gradient, and
30-35kt 850mb winds will increase the winds down the Okanogan
valley and spilling into the Waterville Plateau and the Columbia
basin. The Purcell trench is somewhat protected form this flow but
should still see increase north-northeast winds later this
afternoon and early this evening. Winds will increase by mid day
with sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts 30-35 mph through the
afternoon, before decreasing an hour or two after sunset. For the
Purcell trench and spilling into the Spokane-Coeur D`Alene
corridor and into the Palouse north-northeast winds around 20 mph
with gusts 25-30 mph will be possible. This will result in a very
brisk/raw afternoon for the forecast area.

Tonight through Tuesday night...The upper level low will push east
and high pressure will build out around 130-135w. This will put
the forecast area in a dry northwest to northerly flow. Dry air
will push into the region for a drying trend. Some mid level
clouds will linger over the Panhandle mountains, otherwise mostly
sunny conditions. Temperatures will cool considerably. Once the
winds die down this evening and with clearing skies there should
be ample radiational cooling. Minimum temperatures will drop into
the low teens to low 20s both Tuesday and Wednesday morning...with
a few single digits possible for some of our frost-pockets. Max
temperatures will struggle to rise only into the mid 30s to lower
40s. Which is will be 8-10 degrees below normal. Tobin

Wednesday through Thursday night...A weak impulse will track
across the region Wednesday but will likely result in just some
mid to high clouds. Northerly flow will keep temperatures below
seasonal normals for one more day before starting a slow climb to
more seasonal levels as the ridge axis moves toward the coast.
Cold northerly flow will be replaced by a northwest trajectory
that will bring more of a marine influence to the air mass. This
will allow temperatures to start the warming trend with an
increase of about 5 to 7 degrees expected Thursday and again
Thursday night.

Friday through Sunday...medium range models continue to be at odds
concerning a shortwave trough affecting the area Friday into
Friday night. The latest ECMWF guidance continues to bring this
feature southeast across much of the forecast area while the GFS
remains firm in keeping it well to our northeast. No changes made
to this portion of the forecast until models settle on a solution.
For now, low end PoPs will remain over the higher terrain.
temperatures will moderate as the synoptic flow shifts from
northerly to more westerly. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A weather disturbance will drop south through the
northeast portion of the forecast area this afternoon and result
in a good chance for -SHSN over the north and central Idaho
Panhandle. Showers will be possible as far west as KGEG-KCOE
corridor and at KPUW. The best chance by far will be at KCOE. Cigs
will drop to bkn050-060 after 20z but remain VFR through the
forecast period. KCOE may see brief MVFR cigs/vsby with any
heavier -SHSN. Further to the south and east the remainder of the
TAF sites will remain VFR. Winds will increase at KMWH/KEAT after
20z with sustained northerly winds 18-20kts and gusts 26-30kts
through 06z. KGEG-KCOE may see gusts as high 15-20kts out of the
northeast between 21z-03z. Tobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  19  34  17  42  23 /  30  10  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  42  17  35  14  43  20 /  50  20  10   0   0   0
Pullman        42  21  35  17  43  25 /  40  20  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       46  26  39  20  47  26 /  20  20  10   0   0   0
Colville       45  22  39  16  45  21 /  50  10  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      39  16  33  12  40  20 /  60  30  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        38  17  31  13  40  21 /  80  60  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     50  24  43  20  47  25 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      51  27  44  20  49  27 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           47  22  44  19  48  23 /  10   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 021202
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
402 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system will pass through the region today with the
potential for light snow mainly for the Idaho Panhandle, along
with breezy conditions across much of the region this afternoon and
tonight. Much colder air moves in behind this system, with
temperatures well below average for the middle of the week. A dry
period, with moderating temperature will follow for the end of the
week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
For Today and this evening...Satellite imagery is matching up
with model guidance showing a vigorous upper level low dropping
south along the Oregon coast this morning. Some wrap around
moisture should make it east of the Cascades this morning to
support some light snow near the north Cascade crest. Snow
accumulations will be very light.

Satellite imagery is also showing the second advertised low
dropping south through Alberta and will give our eastern zones a
glancing blow from late this morning through this evening. Snow
showers should be confined to east of a line from about Colville
to Walla Walla...with the focus over the Panhandle mountains.
Plenty of dynamical lift to work with, but this disturbance is
lacking in any deep moisture. As such while pops are fairly high
through the afternoon and early evening, precipitation amounts are
on the lighter side. Precipitation will be as snow down to the
valley floor. Amounts will vary from a trace to a couple of
hundredths for the lower elevations around Colville...Deer
Park...Spokane metro and Pullman. Around an inch for the northeast
mountains of Washington. The north and central Panhandle mountains
may see anywhere from 2-6 inches.

The northerly flow will result in much cooler air moving into
the region down north-south valleys. The cold air advection
combined with a tightening of the surface pressure gradient, and
30-35kt 850mb winds will increase the winds down the Okanogan
valley and spilling into the Waterville Plateau and the Columbia
basin. The Purcell trench is somewhat protected form this flow but
should still see increase north-northeast winds later this
afternoon and early this evening. Winds will increase by mid day
with sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts 30-35 mph through the
afternoon, before decreasing an hour or two after sunset. For the
Purcell trench and spilling into the Spokane-Coeur D`Alene
corridor and into the Palouse north-northeast winds around 20 mph
with gusts 25-30 mph will be possible. This will result in a very
brisk/raw afternoon for the forecast area.

Tonight through Tuesday night...The upper level low will push east
and high pressure will build out around 130-135w. This will put
the forecast area in a dry northwest to northerly flow. Dry air
will push into the region for a drying trend. Some mid level
clouds will linger over the Panhandle mountains, otherwise mostly
sunny conditions. Temperatures will cool considerably. Once the
winds die down this evening and with clearing skies there should
be ample radiational cooling. Minimum temperatures will drop into
the low teens to low 20s both Tuesday and Wednesday morning...with
a few single digits possible for some of our frost-pockets. Max
temperatures will struggle to rise only into the mid 30s to lower
40s. Which is will be 8-10 degrees below normal. Tobin

Wednesday through Thursday night...A weak impulse will track
across the region Wednesday but will likely result in just some
mid to high clouds. Northerly flow will keep temperatures below
seasonal normals for one more day before starting a slow climb to
more seasonal levels as the ridge axis moves toward the coast.
Cold northerly flow will be replaced by a northwest trajectory
that will bring more of a marine influence to the air mass. This
will allow temperatures to start the warming trend with an
increase of about 5 to 7 degrees expected Thursday and again
Thursday night.

Friday through Sunday...medium range models continue to be at odds
concerning a shortwave trough affecting the area Friday into
Friday night. The latest ECMWF guidance continues to bring this
feature southeast across much of the forecast area while the GFS
remains firm in keeping it well to our northeast. No changes made
to this portion of the forecast until models settle on a solution.
For now, low end PoPs will remain over the higher terrain.
temperatures will moderate as the synoptic flow shifts from
northerly to more westerly. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A weather disturbance will drop south through the
northeast portion of the forecast area this afternoon and result
in a good chance for -SHSN over the north and central Idaho
Panhandle. Showers will be possible as far west as KGEG-KCOE
corridor and at KPUW. The best chance by far will be at KCOE. Cigs
will drop to bkn050-060 after 20z but remain VFR through the
forecast period. KCOE may see brief MVFR cigs/vsby with any
heavier -SHSN. Further to the south and east the remainder of the
TAF sites will remain VFR. Winds will increase at KMWH/KEAT after
20z with sustained northerly winds 18-20kts and gusts 26-30kts
through 06z. KGEG-KCOE may see gusts as high 15-20kts out of the
northeast between 21z-03z. Tobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  19  34  17  42  23 /  30  10  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  42  17  35  14  43  20 /  50  20  10   0   0   0
Pullman        42  21  35  17  43  25 /  40  20  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       46  26  39  20  47  26 /  20  20  10   0   0   0
Colville       45  22  39  16  45  21 /  50  10  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      39  16  33  12  40  20 /  60  30  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        38  17  31  13  40  21 /  80  60  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     50  24  43  20  47  25 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      51  27  44  20  49  27 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           47  22  44  19  48  23 /  10   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 021045
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM OVER WASHINGTON WILL MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A BREEZY NORTH WIND. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN DIGGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION
REMAINED DRY OR NEARLY DRY...THIS FEATURE BROUGHT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE REST OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. AT 2 AM SKIES WERE
STILL MAINLY CLOUDY...BUT PRECIPITATION WAS SPOTTY AND LIGHT. THE
AIR MASS IS RATHER COOL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
AND THE SNOW LEVEL AROUND 1500 FT.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER RIDGE
OFFSHORE ALONG 140W. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...WITH THE AIR MASS DRYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE TODAY. THE NORTHEAST SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN INCREASING OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH IN WESTERN
CANADA. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE BREEZY NORTH OR
NORTHEAST WINDS...WHICH WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE NORTH INTERIOR OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE FRASER RIVER.

DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS THE OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. CLEAR SKIES AND EASING NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL MEAN
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30S BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG OR FREEZING FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS IN THE SOUTH PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTH INTERIOR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS MAINLY 45 TO
55.   MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND
DURING THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
RIDGE COULD BRUSH WESTERN WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME MODEL RUNS KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ENTIRELY DRY...AND IF ANY
PRECIPITATION FALLS IT WILL BE LIGHT AND MOST LIKELY LIMITED TO THE
NORTH COAST AND NORTH CASCADES.

THE MODELS ARE IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF
INDIVIDUAL MODELS HAS NOT BEEN VERY GOOD EITHER. FOR NOW SUFFICE IT
TO SAY THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BUILD OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY AND DURING THE WEEKEND FOR MORE DRY WEATHER.   MCDONNAL

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE IN THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WA
EARLY THIS MORNING FROM A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
NORTHERLY. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KCLM
WHERE NE UPSLOPE WINDS WILL KEEP CIGS NEAR 2000 FT. 33

KSEA...NORTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE. CIGS ARE MAINLY VFR THIS MORNING.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES
THIS EVENING. 33

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER INTERIOR B.C. TODAY WITH
N/NE WINDS ACROSS WESTERN WA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
FOR ALL MARINE ZONES. GALES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS WITH FRASER RIVER OUTFLOW. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL EASE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WATERS. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.
     GALE WATCH NORTHERN INLAND WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 021045
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM OVER WASHINGTON WILL MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A BREEZY NORTH WIND. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN DIGGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION
REMAINED DRY OR NEARLY DRY...THIS FEATURE BROUGHT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE REST OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. AT 2 AM SKIES WERE
STILL MAINLY CLOUDY...BUT PRECIPITATION WAS SPOTTY AND LIGHT. THE
AIR MASS IS RATHER COOL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
AND THE SNOW LEVEL AROUND 1500 FT.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER RIDGE
OFFSHORE ALONG 140W. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...WITH THE AIR MASS DRYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE TODAY. THE NORTHEAST SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN INCREASING OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH IN WESTERN
CANADA. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE BREEZY NORTH OR
NORTHEAST WINDS...WHICH WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE NORTH INTERIOR OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE FRASER RIVER.

DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS THE OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. CLEAR SKIES AND EASING NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL MEAN
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30S BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG OR FREEZING FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS IN THE SOUTH PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTH INTERIOR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS MAINLY 45 TO
55.   MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND
DURING THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
RIDGE COULD BRUSH WESTERN WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME MODEL RUNS KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ENTIRELY DRY...AND IF ANY
PRECIPITATION FALLS IT WILL BE LIGHT AND MOST LIKELY LIMITED TO THE
NORTH COAST AND NORTH CASCADES.

THE MODELS ARE IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF
INDIVIDUAL MODELS HAS NOT BEEN VERY GOOD EITHER. FOR NOW SUFFICE IT
TO SAY THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BUILD OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY AND DURING THE WEEKEND FOR MORE DRY WEATHER.   MCDONNAL

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE IN THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WA
EARLY THIS MORNING FROM A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
NORTHERLY. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KCLM
WHERE NE UPSLOPE WINDS WILL KEEP CIGS NEAR 2000 FT. 33

KSEA...NORTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE. CIGS ARE MAINLY VFR THIS MORNING.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES
THIS EVENING. 33

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER INTERIOR B.C. TODAY WITH
N/NE WINDS ACROSS WESTERN WA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
FOR ALL MARINE ZONES. GALES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS WITH FRASER RIVER OUTFLOW. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL EASE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WATERS. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.
     GALE WATCH NORTHERN INLAND WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KPQR 021042
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
242 AM PST MON MAR  2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AS ADVERTISED...A WEATHER SYSTEM WAS MOVING SOUTH ALONG
THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...SPREADING RAIN TO THE COAST AND EVEN
SOME INLAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND BE MOSTLY
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATER THIS MORNING WITH DECREASING
SHOWERS AND SLOWLY DECREASING CLOUDS. AN UPPER RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS
OUT NEAR 140W WILL OTHERWISE BE THE MAIN FEATURE NEAR OUR FORECAST
AREA MOST OF THIS WEAK. SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES MAY BACKDOOR AND BRUSH THE CASCADE CREST AREA TONIGHT...
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND BEYOND. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN VACILLATING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A SYSTEM RIDING OVER
THE UPPER RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE PROBABLY
A BIT OF INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW. AT THIS POINT...DRY WEATHER COULD
LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE MODELS WERE PRETTY GOOD SHOWING A SYSTEM MOVING
SOUTH ALONG OUR COAST OVERNIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST
AND POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION SPREADING EAST OF THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THE RADAR ECHOES ACTUALLY FIT THE NAM12
PRECIPITATION FIELD PRETTY WELL THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA
BY LATER THIS MORNING...SO LOOK FOR RATHER DRAMATICALLY DECREASING
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. THERE ARE STILL
QUITE A FEW CLOUDS TRAILING THIS SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH...SO IT MAY TAKE
A WHILE TODAY FOR CLOUDS TO BREAK UP AND BEGIN CLEARING SOME... BUT
SOME SUNSHINE IS LIKELY TO BREAK THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE RATHER PERSISTENT THAT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES AND NEAR THE CREST OF THE CASCADES
TONIGHT...AS THAT AREA IS BACKDOORED BY SOME CLOUDS OR MOISTURE FOR A
WHILE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE THE UPPER RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS OUT NEAR 140W WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. AND THIS WILL BRING
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

ANY OFFSHORE FLOW AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES IS MODEST...WITH THE MAIN
EAST WIND NEAR THE GORGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SO WE COULD SEE SOME
LOCAL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE GORGE IN THE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE AROUND THE AREA. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE NIPPY WITH THE
FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH TEMPS IN MANY AREAS DOWN NEAR FREEZING LATE
AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE
NEAR OR EVEN POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
LINGERS WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER THE NE PACIFIC
AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC JET STREAM
WELL TO OUR NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...AS MOST GUIDANCE PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE
IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...WEAK LOW PRES ALONG THE COAST WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THIS
AM. THIS WILL MAINTAIN VFR INLAND...WITH MVFR ALONG THE COAST.
BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z...DRIER AIR FROM N WILL BRING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ALONG N OREGON COAST...AND SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD.
FARTHER INLAND...CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY LOW VFR THIS AM...WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT
RAIN UNTIL 16Z. WILL SEE CLOUDS BREAK UP AFTER 20Z AS INCREASING
DRIER AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO REGION.  ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NE PAC THIS
WEEK...WITH WINDS MOSTLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.

HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING S...THUS MAINTAINING GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE FAR
OUTER WATERS TODAY...BUT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE. ALSO HAVE SEAS
RUNNING AROUND 7 TO 9 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS...AND WITH THE SHORT
PERIOD DUE TO WINDS... WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE STEEP LOCALLY CHOPPY
SEAS TODAY. BUT AS WINDS EASE LATER TODAY...SO TOO WILL THE SEAS
SUBSIDE.    ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS
     MORNING FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD
     OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR

     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 021042
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
242 AM PST MON MAR  2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AS ADVERTISED...A WEATHER SYSTEM WAS MOVING SOUTH ALONG
THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...SPREADING RAIN TO THE COAST AND EVEN
SOME INLAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND BE MOSTLY
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATER THIS MORNING WITH DECREASING
SHOWERS AND SLOWLY DECREASING CLOUDS. AN UPPER RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS
OUT NEAR 140W WILL OTHERWISE BE THE MAIN FEATURE NEAR OUR FORECAST
AREA MOST OF THIS WEAK. SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES MAY BACKDOOR AND BRUSH THE CASCADE CREST AREA TONIGHT...
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND BEYOND. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN VACILLATING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A SYSTEM RIDING OVER
THE UPPER RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE PROBABLY
A BIT OF INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW. AT THIS POINT...DRY WEATHER COULD
LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE MODELS WERE PRETTY GOOD SHOWING A SYSTEM MOVING
SOUTH ALONG OUR COAST OVERNIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST
AND POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION SPREADING EAST OF THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THE RADAR ECHOES ACTUALLY FIT THE NAM12
PRECIPITATION FIELD PRETTY WELL THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA
BY LATER THIS MORNING...SO LOOK FOR RATHER DRAMATICALLY DECREASING
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. THERE ARE STILL
QUITE A FEW CLOUDS TRAILING THIS SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH...SO IT MAY TAKE
A WHILE TODAY FOR CLOUDS TO BREAK UP AND BEGIN CLEARING SOME... BUT
SOME SUNSHINE IS LIKELY TO BREAK THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE RATHER PERSISTENT THAT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES AND NEAR THE CREST OF THE CASCADES
TONIGHT...AS THAT AREA IS BACKDOORED BY SOME CLOUDS OR MOISTURE FOR A
WHILE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE THE UPPER RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS OUT NEAR 140W WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. AND THIS WILL BRING
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

ANY OFFSHORE FLOW AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES IS MODEST...WITH THE MAIN
EAST WIND NEAR THE GORGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SO WE COULD SEE SOME
LOCAL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE GORGE IN THE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE AROUND THE AREA. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE NIPPY WITH THE
FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH TEMPS IN MANY AREAS DOWN NEAR FREEZING LATE
AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE
NEAR OR EVEN POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION
LINGERS WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER THE NE PACIFIC
AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC JET STREAM
WELL TO OUR NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...AS MOST GUIDANCE PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE
IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...WEAK LOW PRES ALONG THE COAST WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THIS
AM. THIS WILL MAINTAIN VFR INLAND...WITH MVFR ALONG THE COAST.
BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z...DRIER AIR FROM N WILL BRING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ALONG N OREGON COAST...AND SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD.
FARTHER INLAND...CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY LOW VFR THIS AM...WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT
RAIN UNTIL 16Z. WILL SEE CLOUDS BREAK UP AFTER 20Z AS INCREASING
DRIER AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO REGION.  ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NE PAC THIS
WEEK...WITH WINDS MOSTLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.

HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING S...THUS MAINTAINING GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE FAR
OUTER WATERS TODAY...BUT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE. ALSO HAVE SEAS
RUNNING AROUND 7 TO 9 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS...AND WITH THE SHORT
PERIOD DUE TO WINDS... WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE STEEP LOCALLY CHOPPY
SEAS TODAY. BUT AS WINDS EASE LATER TODAY...SO TOO WILL THE SEAS
SUBSIDE.    ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS
     MORNING FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD
     OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR

     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 021035
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
235 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system will pass through the region today with the
potential for light snow mainly for the Idaho Panhandle, along
with breezy conditions across much of the region this afternoon and
tonight. Much colder air moves in behind this system, with
temperatures well below average for the middle of the week. A dry
period, with moderating temperature will follow for the end of the
week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
For Today and this evening...Satellite imagery is matching up
with model guidance showing a vigorous upper level low dropping
south along the Oregon coast this morning. Some wrap around
moisture should make it east of the Cascades this morning to
support some light snow near the north Cascade crest. Snow
accumulations will be very light.

Satellite imagery is also showing the second advertised low
dropping south through Alberta and will give our eastern zones a
glancing blow from late this morning through this evening. Snow
showers should be confined to east of a line from about Colville
to Walla Walla...with the focus over the Panhandle mountains.
Plenty of dynamical lift to work with, but this disturbance is
lacking in any deep moisture. As such while pops are fairly high
through the afternoon and early evening, precipitation amounts are
on the lighter side. Precipitation will be as snow down to the
valley floor. Amounts will vary from a trace to a couple of
hundredths for the lower elevations around Colville...Deer
Park...Spokane metro and Pullman. Around an inch for the northeast
mountains of Washington. The north and central Panhandle mountains
may see anywhere from 2-6 inches.

The northerly flow will result in much cooler air moving into
the region down north-south valleys. The cold air advection
combined with a tightening of the surface pressure gradient, and
30-35kt 850mb winds will increase the winds down the Okanogan
valley and spilling into the Waterville Plateau and the Columbia
basin. The Purcell trench is somewhat protected form this flow but
should still see increase north-northeast winds later this
afternoon and early this evening. Winds will increase by mid day
with sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts 30-35 mph through the
afternoon, before decreasing an hour or two after sunset. For the
Purcell trench and spilling into the Spokane-Coeur D`Alene
corridor and into the Palouse north-northeast winds around 20 mph
with gusts 25-30 mph will be possible. This will result in a very
brisk/raw afternoon for the forecast area.

Tonight through Tuesday night...The upper level low will push east
and high pressure will build out around 130-135w. This will put
the forecast area in a dry northwest to northerly flow. Dry air
will push into the region for a drying trend. Some mid level
clouds will linger over the Panhandle mountains, otherwise mostly
sunny conditions. Temperatures will cool considerably. Once the
winds die down this evening and with clearing skies there should
be ample radiational cooling. Minimum temperatures will drop into
the low teens to low 20s both Tuesday and Wednesday morning...with
a few single digits possible for some of our frost-pockets. Max
temperatures will struggle to rise only into the mid 30s to lower
40s. Which is will be 8-10 degrees below normal. Tobin

Wednesday through Thursday night...A weak impulse will track
across the region Wednesday but will likely result in just some
mid to high clouds. Northerly flow will keep temperatures below
seasonal normals for one more day before starting a slow climb to
more seasonal levels as the ridge axis moves toward the coast.
Cold northerly flow will be replaced by a northwest trajectory
that will bring more of a marine influence to the air mass. This
will allow temperatures to start the warming trend with an
increase of about 5 to 7 degrees expected Thursday and again
Thursday night.

Friday through Sunday...medium range models continue to be at odds
concerning a shortwave trough affecting the area Friday into
Friday night. The latest ECMWF guidance continues to bring this
feature southeast across much of the forecast area while the GFS
remains firm in keeping it well to our northeast. No changes made
to this portion of the forecast until models settle on a solution.
For now, low end PoPs will remain over the higher terrain.
temperatures will moderate as the synoptic flow shifts from
northerly to more westerly. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions to prevail at most taf sites. High
clouds continue to invade and thicken above in association with
incoming front. Little in way of prolonged and intense
precipitation expected with it so brief MVFR ceilings and
visibilities may be associated with any snow showers which occur.
In the wake of this front the northeast wind will increase in
intensity and be quite gusty from about 5Z Tuesday into the
evening. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  19  34  17  42  23 /  30  10  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  42  17  35  14  43  20 /  50  20  10   0   0   0
Pullman        42  21  35  17  43  25 /  40  20  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       46  26  39  20  47  26 /  20  20  10   0   0   0
Colville       45  22  39  16  45  21 /  50  10  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      39  16  33  12  40  20 /  60  30  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        38  17  31  13  40  21 /  80  60  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     50  24  43  20  47  25 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      51  27  44  20  49  27 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           47  22  44  19  48  23 /  10   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 021035
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
235 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system will pass through the region today with the
potential for light snow mainly for the Idaho Panhandle, along
with breezy conditions across much of the region this afternoon and
tonight. Much colder air moves in behind this system, with
temperatures well below average for the middle of the week. A dry
period, with moderating temperature will follow for the end of the
week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
For Today and this evening...Satellite imagery is matching up
with model guidance showing a vigorous upper level low dropping
south along the Oregon coast this morning. Some wrap around
moisture should make it east of the Cascades this morning to
support some light snow near the north Cascade crest. Snow
accumulations will be very light.

Satellite imagery is also showing the second advertised low
dropping south through Alberta and will give our eastern zones a
glancing blow from late this morning through this evening. Snow
showers should be confined to east of a line from about Colville
to Walla Walla...with the focus over the Panhandle mountains.
Plenty of dynamical lift to work with, but this disturbance is
lacking in any deep moisture. As such while pops are fairly high
through the afternoon and early evening, precipitation amounts are
on the lighter side. Precipitation will be as snow down to the
valley floor. Amounts will vary from a trace to a couple of
hundredths for the lower elevations around Colville...Deer
Park...Spokane metro and Pullman. Around an inch for the northeast
mountains of Washington. The north and central Panhandle mountains
may see anywhere from 2-6 inches.

The northerly flow will result in much cooler air moving into
the region down north-south valleys. The cold air advection
combined with a tightening of the surface pressure gradient, and
30-35kt 850mb winds will increase the winds down the Okanogan
valley and spilling into the Waterville Plateau and the Columbia
basin. The Purcell trench is somewhat protected form this flow but
should still see increase north-northeast winds later this
afternoon and early this evening. Winds will increase by mid day
with sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts 30-35 mph through the
afternoon, before decreasing an hour or two after sunset. For the
Purcell trench and spilling into the Spokane-Coeur D`Alene
corridor and into the Palouse north-northeast winds around 20 mph
with gusts 25-30 mph will be possible. This will result in a very
brisk/raw afternoon for the forecast area.

Tonight through Tuesday night...The upper level low will push east
and high pressure will build out around 130-135w. This will put
the forecast area in a dry northwest to northerly flow. Dry air
will push into the region for a drying trend. Some mid level
clouds will linger over the Panhandle mountains, otherwise mostly
sunny conditions. Temperatures will cool considerably. Once the
winds die down this evening and with clearing skies there should
be ample radiational cooling. Minimum temperatures will drop into
the low teens to low 20s both Tuesday and Wednesday morning...with
a few single digits possible for some of our frost-pockets. Max
temperatures will struggle to rise only into the mid 30s to lower
40s. Which is will be 8-10 degrees below normal. Tobin

Wednesday through Thursday night...A weak impulse will track
across the region Wednesday but will likely result in just some
mid to high clouds. Northerly flow will keep temperatures below
seasonal normals for one more day before starting a slow climb to
more seasonal levels as the ridge axis moves toward the coast.
Cold northerly flow will be replaced by a northwest trajectory
that will bring more of a marine influence to the air mass. This
will allow temperatures to start the warming trend with an
increase of about 5 to 7 degrees expected Thursday and again
Thursday night.

Friday through Sunday...medium range models continue to be at odds
concerning a shortwave trough affecting the area Friday into
Friday night. The latest ECMWF guidance continues to bring this
feature southeast across much of the forecast area while the GFS
remains firm in keeping it well to our northeast. No changes made
to this portion of the forecast until models settle on a solution.
For now, low end PoPs will remain over the higher terrain.
temperatures will moderate as the synoptic flow shifts from
northerly to more westerly. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions to prevail at most taf sites. High
clouds continue to invade and thicken above in association with
incoming front. Little in way of prolonged and intense
precipitation expected with it so brief MVFR ceilings and
visibilities may be associated with any snow showers which occur.
In the wake of this front the northeast wind will increase in
intensity and be quite gusty from about 5Z Tuesday into the
evening. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  19  34  17  42  23 /  30  10  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  42  17  35  14  43  20 /  50  20  10   0   0   0
Pullman        42  21  35  17  43  25 /  40  20  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       46  26  39  20  47  26 /  20  20  10   0   0   0
Colville       45  22  39  16  45  21 /  50  10  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      39  16  33  12  40  20 /  60  30  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        38  17  31  13  40  21 /  80  60  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     50  24  43  20  47  25 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      51  27  44  20  49  27 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           47  22  44  19  48  23 /  10   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 021035
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
235 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system will pass through the region today with the
potential for light snow mainly for the Idaho Panhandle, along
with breezy conditions across much of the region this afternoon and
tonight. Much colder air moves in behind this system, with
temperatures well below average for the middle of the week. A dry
period, with moderating temperature will follow for the end of the
week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
For Today and this evening...Satellite imagery is matching up
with model guidance showing a vigorous upper level low dropping
south along the Oregon coast this morning. Some wrap around
moisture should make it east of the Cascades this morning to
support some light snow near the north Cascade crest. Snow
accumulations will be very light.

Satellite imagery is also showing the second advertised low
dropping south through Alberta and will give our eastern zones a
glancing blow from late this morning through this evening. Snow
showers should be confined to east of a line from about Colville
to Walla Walla...with the focus over the Panhandle mountains.
Plenty of dynamical lift to work with, but this disturbance is
lacking in any deep moisture. As such while pops are fairly high
through the afternoon and early evening, precipitation amounts are
on the lighter side. Precipitation will be as snow down to the
valley floor. Amounts will vary from a trace to a couple of
hundredths for the lower elevations around Colville...Deer
Park...Spokane metro and Pullman. Around an inch for the northeast
mountains of Washington. The north and central Panhandle mountains
may see anywhere from 2-6 inches.

The northerly flow will result in much cooler air moving into
the region down north-south valleys. The cold air advection
combined with a tightening of the surface pressure gradient, and
30-35kt 850mb winds will increase the winds down the Okanogan
valley and spilling into the Waterville Plateau and the Columbia
basin. The Purcell trench is somewhat protected form this flow but
should still see increase north-northeast winds later this
afternoon and early this evening. Winds will increase by mid day
with sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts 30-35 mph through the
afternoon, before decreasing an hour or two after sunset. For the
Purcell trench and spilling into the Spokane-Coeur D`Alene
corridor and into the Palouse north-northeast winds around 20 mph
with gusts 25-30 mph will be possible. This will result in a very
brisk/raw afternoon for the forecast area.

Tonight through Tuesday night...The upper level low will push east
and high pressure will build out around 130-135w. This will put
the forecast area in a dry northwest to northerly flow. Dry air
will push into the region for a drying trend. Some mid level
clouds will linger over the Panhandle mountains, otherwise mostly
sunny conditions. Temperatures will cool considerably. Once the
winds die down this evening and with clearing skies there should
be ample radiational cooling. Minimum temperatures will drop into
the low teens to low 20s both Tuesday and Wednesday morning...with
a few single digits possible for some of our frost-pockets. Max
temperatures will struggle to rise only into the mid 30s to lower
40s. Which is will be 8-10 degrees below normal. Tobin

Wednesday through Thursday night...A weak impulse will track
across the region Wednesday but will likely result in just some
mid to high clouds. Northerly flow will keep temperatures below
seasonal normals for one more day before starting a slow climb to
more seasonal levels as the ridge axis moves toward the coast.
Cold northerly flow will be replaced by a northwest trajectory
that will bring more of a marine influence to the air mass. This
will allow temperatures to start the warming trend with an
increase of about 5 to 7 degrees expected Thursday and again
Thursday night.

Friday through Sunday...medium range models continue to be at odds
concerning a shortwave trough affecting the area Friday into
Friday night. The latest ECMWF guidance continues to bring this
feature southeast across much of the forecast area while the GFS
remains firm in keeping it well to our northeast. No changes made
to this portion of the forecast until models settle on a solution.
For now, low end PoPs will remain over the higher terrain.
temperatures will moderate as the synoptic flow shifts from
northerly to more westerly. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions to prevail at most taf sites. High
clouds continue to invade and thicken above in association with
incoming front. Little in way of prolonged and intense
precipitation expected with it so brief MVFR ceilings and
visibilities may be associated with any snow showers which occur.
In the wake of this front the northeast wind will increase in
intensity and be quite gusty from about 5Z Tuesday into the
evening. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  19  34  17  42  23 /  30  10  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  42  17  35  14  43  20 /  50  20  10   0   0   0
Pullman        42  21  35  17  43  25 /  40  20  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       46  26  39  20  47  26 /  20  20  10   0   0   0
Colville       45  22  39  16  45  21 /  50  10  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      39  16  33  12  40  20 /  60  30  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        38  17  31  13  40  21 /  80  60  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     50  24  43  20  47  25 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      51  27  44  20  49  27 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           47  22  44  19  48  23 /  10   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 021035
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
235 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system will pass through the region today with the
potential for light snow mainly for the Idaho Panhandle, along
with breezy conditions across much of the region this afternoon and
tonight. Much colder air moves in behind this system, with
temperatures well below average for the middle of the week. A dry
period, with moderating temperature will follow for the end of the
week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
For Today and this evening...Satellite imagery is matching up
with model guidance showing a vigorous upper level low dropping
south along the Oregon coast this morning. Some wrap around
moisture should make it east of the Cascades this morning to
support some light snow near the north Cascade crest. Snow
accumulations will be very light.

Satellite imagery is also showing the second advertised low
dropping south through Alberta and will give our eastern zones a
glancing blow from late this morning through this evening. Snow
showers should be confined to east of a line from about Colville
to Walla Walla...with the focus over the Panhandle mountains.
Plenty of dynamical lift to work with, but this disturbance is
lacking in any deep moisture. As such while pops are fairly high
through the afternoon and early evening, precipitation amounts are
on the lighter side. Precipitation will be as snow down to the
valley floor. Amounts will vary from a trace to a couple of
hundredths for the lower elevations around Colville...Deer
Park...Spokane metro and Pullman. Around an inch for the northeast
mountains of Washington. The north and central Panhandle mountains
may see anywhere from 2-6 inches.

The northerly flow will result in much cooler air moving into
the region down north-south valleys. The cold air advection
combined with a tightening of the surface pressure gradient, and
30-35kt 850mb winds will increase the winds down the Okanogan
valley and spilling into the Waterville Plateau and the Columbia
basin. The Purcell trench is somewhat protected form this flow but
should still see increase north-northeast winds later this
afternoon and early this evening. Winds will increase by mid day
with sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts 30-35 mph through the
afternoon, before decreasing an hour or two after sunset. For the
Purcell trench and spilling into the Spokane-Coeur D`Alene
corridor and into the Palouse north-northeast winds around 20 mph
with gusts 25-30 mph will be possible. This will result in a very
brisk/raw afternoon for the forecast area.

Tonight through Tuesday night...The upper level low will push east
and high pressure will build out around 130-135w. This will put
the forecast area in a dry northwest to northerly flow. Dry air
will push into the region for a drying trend. Some mid level
clouds will linger over the Panhandle mountains, otherwise mostly
sunny conditions. Temperatures will cool considerably. Once the
winds die down this evening and with clearing skies there should
be ample radiational cooling. Minimum temperatures will drop into
the low teens to low 20s both Tuesday and Wednesday morning...with
a few single digits possible for some of our frost-pockets. Max
temperatures will struggle to rise only into the mid 30s to lower
40s. Which is will be 8-10 degrees below normal. Tobin

Wednesday through Thursday night...A weak impulse will track
across the region Wednesday but will likely result in just some
mid to high clouds. Northerly flow will keep temperatures below
seasonal normals for one more day before starting a slow climb to
more seasonal levels as the ridge axis moves toward the coast.
Cold northerly flow will be replaced by a northwest trajectory
that will bring more of a marine influence to the air mass. This
will allow temperatures to start the warming trend with an
increase of about 5 to 7 degrees expected Thursday and again
Thursday night.

Friday through Sunday...medium range models continue to be at odds
concerning a shortwave trough affecting the area Friday into
Friday night. The latest ECMWF guidance continues to bring this
feature southeast across much of the forecast area while the GFS
remains firm in keeping it well to our northeast. No changes made
to this portion of the forecast until models settle on a solution.
For now, low end PoPs will remain over the higher terrain.
temperatures will moderate as the synoptic flow shifts from
northerly to more westerly. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions to prevail at most taf sites. High
clouds continue to invade and thicken above in association with
incoming front. Little in way of prolonged and intense
precipitation expected with it so brief MVFR ceilings and
visibilities may be associated with any snow showers which occur.
In the wake of this front the northeast wind will increase in
intensity and be quite gusty from about 5Z Tuesday into the
evening. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  19  34  17  42  23 /  30  10  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  42  17  35  14  43  20 /  50  20  10   0   0   0
Pullman        42  21  35  17  43  25 /  40  20  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       46  26  39  20  47  26 /  20  20  10   0   0   0
Colville       45  22  39  16  45  21 /  50  10  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      39  16  33  12  40  20 /  60  30  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        38  17  31  13  40  21 /  80  60  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     50  24  43  20  47  25 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      51  27  44  20  49  27 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           47  22  44  19  48  23 /  10   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 020519
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
919 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system will pass through the region tonight and
Monday with the potential for light snow mainly for the Idaho
Panhandle, along with breezy conditions across much of the region
Monday night. Much colder air moves in behind this system, with
temperatures well below average for the middle of the week. A dry
period, with moderating temperature will follow for the end of
the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Adjustments to the forecast this evening included a increase in
sky cover forecast with the incoming front tonight and some
cooling of forecast lows for tonight based on the trend this
evening. Additionaly have increased some of the northeast wind and
wind gusts expected Monday evening in the wake of this passing
weather system. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditons to prevail at most taf sites. High clouds
continue to invade and thicken above in association with incoming
front. Little in way of prolonged and intense precipitation
expected with it so brief MVFR ceilings and visibilities may be
associated with any snow showers which occur. In the wake of this
front the northeast wind will increase in intensity and be quite
gusty from about 5Z Tuesday into the evening. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        29  42  20  35  17  41 /  10  30  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  27  42  18  36  14  44 /  10  50  30  10   0   0
Pullman        29  41  21  35  17  44 /   0  40  20  10   0   0
Lewiston       30  46  25  40  20  47 /   0  20  20  10   0   0
Colville       28  44  22  40  16  46 /  10  50  10  10   0   0
Sandpoint      26  39  16  33  12  40 /  10  60  50  10   0   0
Kellogg        26  38  16  31  13  40 /   0  70  70  10   0   0
Moses Lake     32  49  25  44  20  48 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      32  50  25  44  21  49 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           29  45  22  45  19  49 /  10  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 020519
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
919 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system will pass through the region tonight and
Monday with the potential for light snow mainly for the Idaho
Panhandle, along with breezy conditions across much of the region
Monday night. Much colder air moves in behind this system, with
temperatures well below average for the middle of the week. A dry
period, with moderating temperature will follow for the end of
the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Adjustments to the forecast this evening included a increase in
sky cover forecast with the incoming front tonight and some
cooling of forecast lows for tonight based on the trend this
evening. Additionaly have increased some of the northeast wind and
wind gusts expected Monday evening in the wake of this passing
weather system. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditons to prevail at most taf sites. High clouds
continue to invade and thicken above in association with incoming
front. Little in way of prolonged and intense precipitation
expected with it so brief MVFR ceilings and visibilities may be
associated with any snow showers which occur. In the wake of this
front the northeast wind will increase in intensity and be quite
gusty from about 5Z Tuesday into the evening. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        29  42  20  35  17  41 /  10  30  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  27  42  18  36  14  44 /  10  50  30  10   0   0
Pullman        29  41  21  35  17  44 /   0  40  20  10   0   0
Lewiston       30  46  25  40  20  47 /   0  20  20  10   0   0
Colville       28  44  22  40  16  46 /  10  50  10  10   0   0
Sandpoint      26  39  16  33  12  40 /  10  60  50  10   0   0
Kellogg        26  38  16  31  13  40 /   0  70  70  10   0   0
Moses Lake     32  49  25  44  20  48 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      32  50  25  44  21  49 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           29  45  22  45  19  49 /  10  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 020519
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
919 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system will pass through the region tonight and
Monday with the potential for light snow mainly for the Idaho
Panhandle, along with breezy conditions across much of the region
Monday night. Much colder air moves in behind this system, with
temperatures well below average for the middle of the week. A dry
period, with moderating temperature will follow for the end of
the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Adjustments to the forecast this evening included a increase in
sky cover forecast with the incoming front tonight and some
cooling of forecast lows for tonight based on the trend this
evening. Additionaly have increased some of the northeast wind and
wind gusts expected Monday evening in the wake of this passing
weather system. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditons to prevail at most taf sites. High clouds
continue to invade and thicken above in association with incoming
front. Little in way of prolonged and intense precipitation
expected with it so brief MVFR ceilings and visibilities may be
associated with any snow showers which occur. In the wake of this
front the northeast wind will increase in intensity and be quite
gusty from about 5Z Tuesday into the evening. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        29  42  20  35  17  41 /  10  30  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  27  42  18  36  14  44 /  10  50  30  10   0   0
Pullman        29  41  21  35  17  44 /   0  40  20  10   0   0
Lewiston       30  46  25  40  20  47 /   0  20  20  10   0   0
Colville       28  44  22  40  16  46 /  10  50  10  10   0   0
Sandpoint      26  39  16  33  12  40 /  10  60  50  10   0   0
Kellogg        26  38  16  31  13  40 /   0  70  70  10   0   0
Moses Lake     32  49  25  44  20  48 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      32  50  25  44  21  49 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           29  45  22  45  19  49 /  10  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 020519
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
919 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system will pass through the region tonight and
Monday with the potential for light snow mainly for the Idaho
Panhandle, along with breezy conditions across much of the region
Monday night. Much colder air moves in behind this system, with
temperatures well below average for the middle of the week. A dry
period, with moderating temperature will follow for the end of
the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Adjustments to the forecast this evening included a increase in
sky cover forecast with the incoming front tonight and some
cooling of forecast lows for tonight based on the trend this
evening. Additionaly have increased some of the northeast wind and
wind gusts expected Monday evening in the wake of this passing
weather system. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditons to prevail at most taf sites. High clouds
continue to invade and thicken above in association with incoming
front. Little in way of prolonged and intense precipitation
expected with it so brief MVFR ceilings and visibilities may be
associated with any snow showers which occur. In the wake of this
front the northeast wind will increase in intensity and be quite
gusty from about 5Z Tuesday into the evening. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        29  42  20  35  17  41 /  10  30  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  27  42  18  36  14  44 /  10  50  30  10   0   0
Pullman        29  41  21  35  17  44 /   0  40  20  10   0   0
Lewiston       30  46  25  40  20  47 /   0  20  20  10   0   0
Colville       28  44  22  40  16  46 /  10  50  10  10   0   0
Sandpoint      26  39  16  33  12  40 /  10  60  50  10   0   0
Kellogg        26  38  16  31  13  40 /   0  70  70  10   0   0
Moses Lake     32  49  25  44  20  48 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      32  50  25  44  21  49 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           29  45  22  45  19  49 /  10  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 020519
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
919 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system will pass through the region tonight and
Monday with the potential for light snow mainly for the Idaho
Panhandle, along with breezy conditions across much of the region
Monday night. Much colder air moves in behind this system, with
temperatures well below average for the middle of the week. A dry
period, with moderating temperature will follow for the end of
the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Adjustments to the forecast this evening included a increase in
sky cover forecast with the incoming front tonight and some
cooling of forecast lows for tonight based on the trend this
evening. Additionaly have increased some of the northeast wind and
wind gusts expected Monday evening in the wake of this passing
weather system. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditons to prevail at most taf sites. High clouds
continue to invade and thicken above in association with incoming
front. Little in way of prolonged and intense precipitation
expected with it so brief MVFR ceilings and visibilities may be
associated with any snow showers which occur. In the wake of this
front the northeast wind will increase in intensity and be quite
gusty from about 5Z Tuesday into the evening. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        29  42  20  35  17  41 /  10  30  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  27  42  18  36  14  44 /  10  50  30  10   0   0
Pullman        29  41  21  35  17  44 /   0  40  20  10   0   0
Lewiston       30  46  25  40  20  47 /   0  20  20  10   0   0
Colville       28  44  22  40  16  46 /  10  50  10  10   0   0
Sandpoint      26  39  16  33  12  40 /  10  60  50  10   0   0
Kellogg        26  38  16  31  13  40 /   0  70  70  10   0   0
Moses Lake     32  49  25  44  20  48 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      32  50  25  44  21  49 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           29  45  22  45  19  49 /  10  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 020500
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
900 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WITH
THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM TRACKING OFFSHORE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST
MOVER...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINANT THIS WINTER IS THEN EXPECTED
TO RETURN...LIKELY LEADING TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE DROPPING QUICKLY
S DOWN THE WA AND N OREGON COASTLINE THIS EVENING. RADAR SHOWED THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN OFF THE COAST...BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN HAD MOVED
INLAND OVER WESTRN WA AND INTO THE N OREGON COAST RANGE. AS THE
SYSTEM DRIVES S OVERNIGHT WILL BUMP POPS ALONG THE COAST UP TO
CATEGORICAL...BUT FURTHER INLAND WILL LEAVE POPS MAINLY IN THE
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AS THE QUICK MOVEMENT AND BEST
DYNAMICS OFF THE COAST SUGGEST NOT A LOT OF PRECPITATION PUSHING
INLAND.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY DRY THINGS OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY. HOWEVER THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG NOR AS DRY
AS IT WAS SATURDAY...SO CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SLUGGISH TO
CLEAR. ALSO THE FLOW ALOFT TAKES SOME TIME TO TURN ANTICYCLONIC WITH
SOME SREF MEMBERS AND THE 18Z NAM EVEN HINTING AT SOME SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING IN THE CASCADES INTO MON NIGHT. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH SOME
SILENT POPS AND A LITTLE BIT OF EXTRA SKY COVER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FOR NOW. MODELS SHOW GOOD CONSENSUS THAT STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL
REBUILD OVER THE REGION TUE/WED...BRINGING US BACK TO AN UNSEASONABLY
DRY REGIME.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION LINGERS WHERE
IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC JET STREAM WELL TO OUR
NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
THEREFORE OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. CONDITIONS
MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE VALLEYS...AS MOST
GUIDANCE PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH
MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE COAST TONIGHT
WHILE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS A CHANCE STEADIER RAIN COULD PUSH
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
HILLSBORO AND PRODUCE MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. IF THESE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP...THEY COULD BE SOMEWHAT SLOW
TO CLEAR...PROBABLY 18Z TO 21Z MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK FRONT WILL RESULT IN LOWERING CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z TO 15Z MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
AROUND THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN RISING CIGS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER PLAYER THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT IS
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT AND WILL BRING
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT TO THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS SHOULD FIRST DROP OFF ACROSS THE NORTH IN
THE MORNING...AND FOLLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A REASONABLY GOOD SIZE FRESH SWELL WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND ABOUT 30 TO 40 NM OF THE COAST. EXPECT
A NORTHWEST SWELL TO TOP OUT IN THE 8 FT AT 8 SECOND RANGE. SEAS
SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NO MAJOR WIND CONCERNS ON THE HORIZON AND SEAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WELL UNDER 10 FT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 020500
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
900 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WITH
THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM TRACKING OFFSHORE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST
MOVER...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINANT THIS WINTER IS THEN EXPECTED
TO RETURN...LIKELY LEADING TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE DROPPING QUICKLY
S DOWN THE WA AND N OREGON COASTLINE THIS EVENING. RADAR SHOWED THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN OFF THE COAST...BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN HAD MOVED
INLAND OVER WESTRN WA AND INTO THE N OREGON COAST RANGE. AS THE
SYSTEM DRIVES S OVERNIGHT WILL BUMP POPS ALONG THE COAST UP TO
CATEGORICAL...BUT FURTHER INLAND WILL LEAVE POPS MAINLY IN THE
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AS THE QUICK MOVEMENT AND BEST
DYNAMICS OFF THE COAST SUGGEST NOT A LOT OF PRECPITATION PUSHING
INLAND.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY DRY THINGS OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY. HOWEVER THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG NOR AS DRY
AS IT WAS SATURDAY...SO CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SLUGGISH TO
CLEAR. ALSO THE FLOW ALOFT TAKES SOME TIME TO TURN ANTICYCLONIC WITH
SOME SREF MEMBERS AND THE 18Z NAM EVEN HINTING AT SOME SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING IN THE CASCADES INTO MON NIGHT. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH SOME
SILENT POPS AND A LITTLE BIT OF EXTRA SKY COVER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FOR NOW. MODELS SHOW GOOD CONSENSUS THAT STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL
REBUILD OVER THE REGION TUE/WED...BRINGING US BACK TO AN UNSEASONABLY
DRY REGIME.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION LINGERS WHERE
IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC JET STREAM WELL TO OUR
NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
THEREFORE OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. CONDITIONS
MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE VALLEYS...AS MOST
GUIDANCE PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH
MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE COAST TONIGHT
WHILE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS A CHANCE STEADIER RAIN COULD PUSH
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
HILLSBORO AND PRODUCE MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. IF THESE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP...THEY COULD BE SOMEWHAT SLOW
TO CLEAR...PROBABLY 18Z TO 21Z MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK FRONT WILL RESULT IN LOWERING CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z TO 15Z MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
AROUND THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN RISING CIGS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER PLAYER THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT IS
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT AND WILL BRING
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT TO THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS SHOULD FIRST DROP OFF ACROSS THE NORTH IN
THE MORNING...AND FOLLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A REASONABLY GOOD SIZE FRESH SWELL WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND ABOUT 30 TO 40 NM OF THE COAST. EXPECT
A NORTHWEST SWELL TO TOP OUT IN THE 8 FT AT 8 SECOND RANGE. SEAS
SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NO MAJOR WIND CONCERNS ON THE HORIZON AND SEAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WELL UNDER 10 FT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 020500
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
900 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WITH
THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM TRACKING OFFSHORE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST
MOVER...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINANT THIS WINTER IS THEN EXPECTED
TO RETURN...LIKELY LEADING TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE DROPPING QUICKLY
S DOWN THE WA AND N OREGON COASTLINE THIS EVENING. RADAR SHOWED THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN OFF THE COAST...BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN HAD MOVED
INLAND OVER WESTRN WA AND INTO THE N OREGON COAST RANGE. AS THE
SYSTEM DRIVES S OVERNIGHT WILL BUMP POPS ALONG THE COAST UP TO
CATEGORICAL...BUT FURTHER INLAND WILL LEAVE POPS MAINLY IN THE
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AS THE QUICK MOVEMENT AND BEST
DYNAMICS OFF THE COAST SUGGEST NOT A LOT OF PRECPITATION PUSHING
INLAND.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY DRY THINGS OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY. HOWEVER THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG NOR AS DRY
AS IT WAS SATURDAY...SO CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SLUGGISH TO
CLEAR. ALSO THE FLOW ALOFT TAKES SOME TIME TO TURN ANTICYCLONIC WITH
SOME SREF MEMBERS AND THE 18Z NAM EVEN HINTING AT SOME SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING IN THE CASCADES INTO MON NIGHT. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH SOME
SILENT POPS AND A LITTLE BIT OF EXTRA SKY COVER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FOR NOW. MODELS SHOW GOOD CONSENSUS THAT STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL
REBUILD OVER THE REGION TUE/WED...BRINGING US BACK TO AN UNSEASONABLY
DRY REGIME.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION LINGERS WHERE
IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC JET STREAM WELL TO OUR
NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
THEREFORE OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. CONDITIONS
MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE VALLEYS...AS MOST
GUIDANCE PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH
MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE COAST TONIGHT
WHILE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS A CHANCE STEADIER RAIN COULD PUSH
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
HILLSBORO AND PRODUCE MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. IF THESE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP...THEY COULD BE SOMEWHAT SLOW
TO CLEAR...PROBABLY 18Z TO 21Z MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK FRONT WILL RESULT IN LOWERING CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z TO 15Z MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
AROUND THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN RISING CIGS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER PLAYER THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT IS
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT AND WILL BRING
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT TO THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS SHOULD FIRST DROP OFF ACROSS THE NORTH IN
THE MORNING...AND FOLLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A REASONABLY GOOD SIZE FRESH SWELL WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND ABOUT 30 TO 40 NM OF THE COAST. EXPECT
A NORTHWEST SWELL TO TOP OUT IN THE 8 FT AT 8 SECOND RANGE. SEAS
SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NO MAJOR WIND CONCERNS ON THE HORIZON AND SEAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WELL UNDER 10 FT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 020500
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
900 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WITH
THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM TRACKING OFFSHORE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST
MOVER...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINANT THIS WINTER IS THEN EXPECTED
TO RETURN...LIKELY LEADING TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE DROPPING QUICKLY
S DOWN THE WA AND N OREGON COASTLINE THIS EVENING. RADAR SHOWED THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN OFF THE COAST...BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN HAD MOVED
INLAND OVER WESTRN WA AND INTO THE N OREGON COAST RANGE. AS THE
SYSTEM DRIVES S OVERNIGHT WILL BUMP POPS ALONG THE COAST UP TO
CATEGORICAL...BUT FURTHER INLAND WILL LEAVE POPS MAINLY IN THE
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AS THE QUICK MOVEMENT AND BEST
DYNAMICS OFF THE COAST SUGGEST NOT A LOT OF PRECPITATION PUSHING
INLAND.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY DRY THINGS OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY. HOWEVER THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG NOR AS DRY
AS IT WAS SATURDAY...SO CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SLUGGISH TO
CLEAR. ALSO THE FLOW ALOFT TAKES SOME TIME TO TURN ANTICYCLONIC WITH
SOME SREF MEMBERS AND THE 18Z NAM EVEN HINTING AT SOME SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING IN THE CASCADES INTO MON NIGHT. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH SOME
SILENT POPS AND A LITTLE BIT OF EXTRA SKY COVER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FOR NOW. MODELS SHOW GOOD CONSENSUS THAT STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL
REBUILD OVER THE REGION TUE/WED...BRINGING US BACK TO AN UNSEASONABLY
DRY REGIME.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION LINGERS WHERE
IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC JET STREAM WELL TO OUR
NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
THEREFORE OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. CONDITIONS
MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE VALLEYS...AS MOST
GUIDANCE PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH
MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE COAST TONIGHT
WHILE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS A CHANCE STEADIER RAIN COULD PUSH
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
HILLSBORO AND PRODUCE MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. IF THESE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP...THEY COULD BE SOMEWHAT SLOW
TO CLEAR...PROBABLY 18Z TO 21Z MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK FRONT WILL RESULT IN LOWERING CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z TO 15Z MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
AROUND THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN RISING CIGS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER PLAYER THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT IS
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT AND WILL BRING
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT TO THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS SHOULD FIRST DROP OFF ACROSS THE NORTH IN
THE MORNING...AND FOLLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A REASONABLY GOOD SIZE FRESH SWELL WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND ABOUT 30 TO 40 NM OF THE COAST. EXPECT
A NORTHWEST SWELL TO TOP OUT IN THE 8 FT AT 8 SECOND RANGE. SEAS
SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NO MAJOR WIND CONCERNS ON THE HORIZON AND SEAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WELL UNDER 10 FT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 020500
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT FOR AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AS PER CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY...WHILE...LOOKING AT OBS...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP IS
MAKING IT EAST OF PUGET SOUND. SHORT TERM MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
IN FOCUSING THEIR ATTENTION ON COASTAL AREAS FOR PRECIP...BUT STILL
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A STRAY BIT OF RAIN INLAND EITHER. AS
SUCH...INHERITED FORECAST HOLDING TOGETHER NICELY.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM EXITING THE AREA
QUICKLY...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. HELPING TO DRY OUT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THIS RIDGE IS LOW
LEVEL NORTH TO NORHTEAST OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AS A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THIS WILL HELP DIMINISH CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC BRINGING DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY. SMR/SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...FROM 230 PM DISCUSSION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...KEEPING THE WEATHER MAINLY
DRY. SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES
BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DIRTY RIDGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN TO WESTERN WA
TONIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS NORTHERLY. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY BEHIND
THIS FRONT LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. 33

KSEA...NORTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE. CIGS LOWERING OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS BY 09-12Z. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT MON
AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR SKIES MON EVENING. 33

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN WA TONIGHT
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY N/NW WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER INTERIOR B.C. ON MONDAY WITH N/NE WINDS
ACROSS WESTERN WA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES. GALES ARE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
WITH FRASER RIVER OUTFLOW. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL EASE ON TUE. WEAK
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
     GALE WATCH N INLAND WATERS MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 020500
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT FOR AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AS PER CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY...WHILE...LOOKING AT OBS...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP IS
MAKING IT EAST OF PUGET SOUND. SHORT TERM MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
IN FOCUSING THEIR ATTENTION ON COASTAL AREAS FOR PRECIP...BUT STILL
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A STRAY BIT OF RAIN INLAND EITHER. AS
SUCH...INHERITED FORECAST HOLDING TOGETHER NICELY.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM EXITING THE AREA
QUICKLY...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. HELPING TO DRY OUT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THIS RIDGE IS LOW
LEVEL NORTH TO NORHTEAST OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AS A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THIS WILL HELP DIMINISH CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC BRINGING DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY. SMR/SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...FROM 230 PM DISCUSSION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...KEEPING THE WEATHER MAINLY
DRY. SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES
BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DIRTY RIDGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN TO WESTERN WA
TONIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS NORTHERLY. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY BEHIND
THIS FRONT LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. 33

KSEA...NORTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE. CIGS LOWERING OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS BY 09-12Z. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT MON
AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR SKIES MON EVENING. 33

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN WA TONIGHT
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY N/NW WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER INTERIOR B.C. ON MONDAY WITH N/NE WINDS
ACROSS WESTERN WA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES. GALES ARE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
WITH FRASER RIVER OUTFLOW. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL EASE ON TUE. WEAK
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
     GALE WATCH N INLAND WATERS MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 020500
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT FOR AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AS PER CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY...WHILE...LOOKING AT OBS...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP IS
MAKING IT EAST OF PUGET SOUND. SHORT TERM MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
IN FOCUSING THEIR ATTENTION ON COASTAL AREAS FOR PRECIP...BUT STILL
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A STRAY BIT OF RAIN INLAND EITHER. AS
SUCH...INHERITED FORECAST HOLDING TOGETHER NICELY.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM EXITING THE AREA
QUICKLY...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. HELPING TO DRY OUT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THIS RIDGE IS LOW
LEVEL NORTH TO NORHTEAST OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AS A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THIS WILL HELP DIMINISH CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC BRINGING DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY. SMR/SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...FROM 230 PM DISCUSSION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...KEEPING THE WEATHER MAINLY
DRY. SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES
BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DIRTY RIDGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN TO WESTERN WA
TONIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS NORTHERLY. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY BEHIND
THIS FRONT LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. 33

KSEA...NORTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE. CIGS LOWERING OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS BY 09-12Z. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT MON
AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR SKIES MON EVENING. 33

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN WA TONIGHT
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY N/NW WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER INTERIOR B.C. ON MONDAY WITH N/NE WINDS
ACROSS WESTERN WA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES. GALES ARE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
WITH FRASER RIVER OUTFLOW. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL EASE ON TUE. WEAK
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
     GALE WATCH N INLAND WATERS MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KPQR 020500
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
900 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WITH
THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM TRACKING OFFSHORE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST
MOVER...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINANT THIS WINTER IS THEN EXPECTED
TO RETURN...LIKELY LEADING TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE DROPPING QUICKLY
S DOWN THE WA AND N OREGON COASTLINE THIS EVENING. RADAR SHOWED THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN OFF THE COAST...BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN HAD MOVED
INLAND OVER WESTRN WA AND INTO THE N OREGON COAST RANGE. AS THE
SYSTEM DRIVES S OVERNIGHT WILL BUMP POPS ALONG THE COAST UP TO
CATEGORICAL...BUT FURTHER INLAND WILL LEAVE POPS MAINLY IN THE
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AS THE QUICK MOVEMENT AND BEST
DYNAMICS OFF THE COAST SUGGEST NOT A LOT OF PRECPITATION PUSHING
INLAND.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY DRY THINGS OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY. HOWEVER THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG NOR AS DRY
AS IT WAS SATURDAY...SO CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SLUGGISH TO
CLEAR. ALSO THE FLOW ALOFT TAKES SOME TIME TO TURN ANTICYCLONIC WITH
SOME SREF MEMBERS AND THE 18Z NAM EVEN HINTING AT SOME SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING IN THE CASCADES INTO MON NIGHT. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH SOME
SILENT POPS AND A LITTLE BIT OF EXTRA SKY COVER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FOR NOW. MODELS SHOW GOOD CONSENSUS THAT STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL
REBUILD OVER THE REGION TUE/WED...BRINGING US BACK TO AN UNSEASONABLY
DRY REGIME.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION LINGERS WHERE
IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC JET STREAM WELL TO OUR
NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
THEREFORE OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. CONDITIONS
MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE VALLEYS...AS MOST
GUIDANCE PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH
MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE COAST TONIGHT
WHILE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS A CHANCE STEADIER RAIN COULD PUSH
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
HILLSBORO AND PRODUCE MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. IF THESE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP...THEY COULD BE SOMEWHAT SLOW
TO CLEAR...PROBABLY 18Z TO 21Z MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK FRONT WILL RESULT IN LOWERING CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z TO 15Z MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
AROUND THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN RISING CIGS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER PLAYER THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT IS
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT AND WILL BRING
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT TO THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS SHOULD FIRST DROP OFF ACROSS THE NORTH IN
THE MORNING...AND FOLLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A REASONABLY GOOD SIZE FRESH SWELL WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND ABOUT 30 TO 40 NM OF THE COAST. EXPECT
A NORTHWEST SWELL TO TOP OUT IN THE 8 FT AT 8 SECOND RANGE. SEAS
SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NO MAJOR WIND CONCERNS ON THE HORIZON AND SEAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WELL UNDER 10 FT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 020500
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
900 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WITH
THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM TRACKING OFFSHORE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST
MOVER...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINANT THIS WINTER IS THEN EXPECTED
TO RETURN...LIKELY LEADING TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE DROPPING QUICKLY
S DOWN THE WA AND N OREGON COASTLINE THIS EVENING. RADAR SHOWED THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN OFF THE COAST...BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN HAD MOVED
INLAND OVER WESTRN WA AND INTO THE N OREGON COAST RANGE. AS THE
SYSTEM DRIVES S OVERNIGHT WILL BUMP POPS ALONG THE COAST UP TO
CATEGORICAL...BUT FURTHER INLAND WILL LEAVE POPS MAINLY IN THE
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AS THE QUICK MOVEMENT AND BEST
DYNAMICS OFF THE COAST SUGGEST NOT A LOT OF PRECPITATION PUSHING
INLAND.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY DRY THINGS OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY. HOWEVER THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG NOR AS DRY
AS IT WAS SATURDAY...SO CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SLUGGISH TO
CLEAR. ALSO THE FLOW ALOFT TAKES SOME TIME TO TURN ANTICYCLONIC WITH
SOME SREF MEMBERS AND THE 18Z NAM EVEN HINTING AT SOME SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING IN THE CASCADES INTO MON NIGHT. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH SOME
SILENT POPS AND A LITTLE BIT OF EXTRA SKY COVER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FOR NOW. MODELS SHOW GOOD CONSENSUS THAT STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL
REBUILD OVER THE REGION TUE/WED...BRINGING US BACK TO AN UNSEASONABLY
DRY REGIME.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION LINGERS WHERE
IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC JET STREAM WELL TO OUR
NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
THEREFORE OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. CONDITIONS
MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE VALLEYS...AS MOST
GUIDANCE PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH
MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE COAST TONIGHT
WHILE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS A CHANCE STEADIER RAIN COULD PUSH
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
HILLSBORO AND PRODUCE MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. IF THESE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP...THEY COULD BE SOMEWHAT SLOW
TO CLEAR...PROBABLY 18Z TO 21Z MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK FRONT WILL RESULT IN LOWERING CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z TO 15Z MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
AROUND THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN RISING CIGS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER PLAYER THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT IS
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT AND WILL BRING
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT TO THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS SHOULD FIRST DROP OFF ACROSS THE NORTH IN
THE MORNING...AND FOLLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A REASONABLY GOOD SIZE FRESH SWELL WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND ABOUT 30 TO 40 NM OF THE COAST. EXPECT
A NORTHWEST SWELL TO TOP OUT IN THE 8 FT AT 8 SECOND RANGE. SEAS
SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NO MAJOR WIND CONCERNS ON THE HORIZON AND SEAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WELL UNDER 10 FT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 020500
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
900 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WITH
THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM TRACKING OFFSHORE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST
MOVER...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINANT THIS WINTER IS THEN EXPECTED
TO RETURN...LIKELY LEADING TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE DROPPING QUICKLY
S DOWN THE WA AND N OREGON COASTLINE THIS EVENING. RADAR SHOWED THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN OFF THE COAST...BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN HAD MOVED
INLAND OVER WESTRN WA AND INTO THE N OREGON COAST RANGE. AS THE
SYSTEM DRIVES S OVERNIGHT WILL BUMP POPS ALONG THE COAST UP TO
CATEGORICAL...BUT FURTHER INLAND WILL LEAVE POPS MAINLY IN THE
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AS THE QUICK MOVEMENT AND BEST
DYNAMICS OFF THE COAST SUGGEST NOT A LOT OF PRECPITATION PUSHING
INLAND.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY DRY THINGS OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY. HOWEVER THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG NOR AS DRY
AS IT WAS SATURDAY...SO CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SLUGGISH TO
CLEAR. ALSO THE FLOW ALOFT TAKES SOME TIME TO TURN ANTICYCLONIC WITH
SOME SREF MEMBERS AND THE 18Z NAM EVEN HINTING AT SOME SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING IN THE CASCADES INTO MON NIGHT. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH SOME
SILENT POPS AND A LITTLE BIT OF EXTRA SKY COVER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FOR NOW. MODELS SHOW GOOD CONSENSUS THAT STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL
REBUILD OVER THE REGION TUE/WED...BRINGING US BACK TO AN UNSEASONABLY
DRY REGIME.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION LINGERS WHERE
IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC JET STREAM WELL TO OUR
NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
THEREFORE OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. CONDITIONS
MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE VALLEYS...AS MOST
GUIDANCE PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH
MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE COAST TONIGHT
WHILE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS A CHANCE STEADIER RAIN COULD PUSH
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
HILLSBORO AND PRODUCE MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. IF THESE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP...THEY COULD BE SOMEWHAT SLOW
TO CLEAR...PROBABLY 18Z TO 21Z MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK FRONT WILL RESULT IN LOWERING CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z TO 15Z MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
AROUND THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN RISING CIGS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER PLAYER THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT IS
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT AND WILL BRING
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT TO THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS SHOULD FIRST DROP OFF ACROSS THE NORTH IN
THE MORNING...AND FOLLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A REASONABLY GOOD SIZE FRESH SWELL WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND ABOUT 30 TO 40 NM OF THE COAST. EXPECT
A NORTHWEST SWELL TO TOP OUT IN THE 8 FT AT 8 SECOND RANGE. SEAS
SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NO MAJOR WIND CONCERNS ON THE HORIZON AND SEAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WELL UNDER 10 FT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 020500
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
900 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WITH
THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM TRACKING OFFSHORE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST
MOVER...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINANT THIS WINTER IS THEN EXPECTED
TO RETURN...LIKELY LEADING TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE DROPPING QUICKLY
S DOWN THE WA AND N OREGON COASTLINE THIS EVENING. RADAR SHOWED THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN OFF THE COAST...BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN HAD MOVED
INLAND OVER WESTRN WA AND INTO THE N OREGON COAST RANGE. AS THE
SYSTEM DRIVES S OVERNIGHT WILL BUMP POPS ALONG THE COAST UP TO
CATEGORICAL...BUT FURTHER INLAND WILL LEAVE POPS MAINLY IN THE
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AS THE QUICK MOVEMENT AND BEST
DYNAMICS OFF THE COAST SUGGEST NOT A LOT OF PRECPITATION PUSHING
INLAND.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY DRY THINGS OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY. HOWEVER THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG NOR AS DRY
AS IT WAS SATURDAY...SO CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SLUGGISH TO
CLEAR. ALSO THE FLOW ALOFT TAKES SOME TIME TO TURN ANTICYCLONIC WITH
SOME SREF MEMBERS AND THE 18Z NAM EVEN HINTING AT SOME SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING IN THE CASCADES INTO MON NIGHT. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH SOME
SILENT POPS AND A LITTLE BIT OF EXTRA SKY COVER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FOR NOW. MODELS SHOW GOOD CONSENSUS THAT STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL
REBUILD OVER THE REGION TUE/WED...BRINGING US BACK TO AN UNSEASONABLY
DRY REGIME.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION LINGERS WHERE
IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC JET STREAM WELL TO OUR
NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
THEREFORE OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. CONDITIONS
MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE VALLEYS...AS MOST
GUIDANCE PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH
MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE COAST TONIGHT
WHILE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS A CHANCE STEADIER RAIN COULD PUSH
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
HILLSBORO AND PRODUCE MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. IF THESE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP...THEY COULD BE SOMEWHAT SLOW
TO CLEAR...PROBABLY 18Z TO 21Z MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK FRONT WILL RESULT IN LOWERING CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z TO 15Z MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
AROUND THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN RISING CIGS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER PLAYER THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT IS
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT AND WILL BRING
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT TO THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS SHOULD FIRST DROP OFF ACROSS THE NORTH IN
THE MORNING...AND FOLLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A REASONABLY GOOD SIZE FRESH SWELL WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND ABOUT 30 TO 40 NM OF THE COAST. EXPECT
A NORTHWEST SWELL TO TOP OUT IN THE 8 FT AT 8 SECOND RANGE. SEAS
SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NO MAJOR WIND CONCERNS ON THE HORIZON AND SEAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WELL UNDER 10 FT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 020020 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WARNINGS SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
230 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT FOR AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS WITH A LITTLE RAIN AT THE
COAST AND A CHANCE OF RAIN FARTHER INLAND.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORHTEAST
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AS A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL HELP DRY THE LOW LEVELS OUT AND
CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE LATER IN THE DAY. THERE WILL ALSO
BE SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH INTERIOR.

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BRING DRY AND MAINLY
SUNNY WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...KEEPING THE WEATHER MAINLY DRY. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY COULD BRING
A FEW SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
IT WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY
DIRTY RIDGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 140W
WILL MAINTAIN N-NW FLOW ACROSS W WA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE N FLOW AND APPROACHING
NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 22Z WILL MOVE SE OVER W WA BY 06Z. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN SPREADING OVER W WA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AFTER 00Z WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND BKN050 WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE N AROUND 03Z. LOWERING CIGS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
SPREAD S WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ANYWHERE FROM 06Z-18Z.

KSEA...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD S OVER THE TERMINAL THROUGH
03Z WITH CIGS BKN100 AND HIGHER. MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND 5000 FEET
WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REACH THE AREA BETWEEN 04Z-09Z. MVFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE S-SW 4-7 KT
THROUGH 03Z BUT A WIND SHIFT TO N-NE 4-8 KT IS EXPECTED SOMETIME
BETWEEN 03Z-05Z. KAM

&&

.MARINE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING NORTHERN
VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 2 PM WILL MOVE SE ACROSS W WA TONIGHT. NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER WA WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT.

BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A 1044 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE S
ACROSS INTERIOR B.C. ON MONDAY. RISING PRESSURES OVER B.C. WILL
INCREASE THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR OF W WA STARTING MONDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE INLAND WATERS ZONES FROM BELLINGHAM DOWN THROUGH PUGET
SOUND ON MONDAY...WITH LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THE B.C. SURFACE HIGH MOVES SE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS W WA
WILL SHIFT MORE E-NE AND STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW MODERATE TO STRONG E-NE FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE N
INLAND WATERS...EXTENDING OUT THROUGH THE STRAIT AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. THE 12Z NWS ARW MODEL PUT WINDS IN THE
30-35 KT RANGE OVER THE NORTH INLAND WATERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCA
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. THIS TIME AROUND THE 12Z CANADIAN MESOSCALE MODEL
WAS WEAKER KEEPING WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE. THE UW WRF-GFS
WAS NOT AVAILABLE IN TIME FOR THE FORECAST. NE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD
WEAKEN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES SE AND
WEAKENS. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
     GALE WATCH NORTH INLAND WATERS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML















000
FXUS66 KSEW 020020 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WARNINGS SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
230 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT FOR AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS WITH A LITTLE RAIN AT THE
COAST AND A CHANCE OF RAIN FARTHER INLAND.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORHTEAST
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AS A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL HELP DRY THE LOW LEVELS OUT AND
CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE LATER IN THE DAY. THERE WILL ALSO
BE SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH INTERIOR.

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BRING DRY AND MAINLY
SUNNY WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...KEEPING THE WEATHER MAINLY DRY. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY COULD BRING
A FEW SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
IT WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY
DIRTY RIDGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 140W
WILL MAINTAIN N-NW FLOW ACROSS W WA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE N FLOW AND APPROACHING
NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 22Z WILL MOVE SE OVER W WA BY 06Z. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN SPREADING OVER W WA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AFTER 00Z WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND BKN050 WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE N AROUND 03Z. LOWERING CIGS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
SPREAD S WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ANYWHERE FROM 06Z-18Z.

KSEA...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD S OVER THE TERMINAL THROUGH
03Z WITH CIGS BKN100 AND HIGHER. MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND 5000 FEET
WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REACH THE AREA BETWEEN 04Z-09Z. MVFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE S-SW 4-7 KT
THROUGH 03Z BUT A WIND SHIFT TO N-NE 4-8 KT IS EXPECTED SOMETIME
BETWEEN 03Z-05Z. KAM

&&

.MARINE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING NORTHERN
VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 2 PM WILL MOVE SE ACROSS W WA TONIGHT. NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER WA WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT.

BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A 1044 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE S
ACROSS INTERIOR B.C. ON MONDAY. RISING PRESSURES OVER B.C. WILL
INCREASE THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR OF W WA STARTING MONDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE INLAND WATERS ZONES FROM BELLINGHAM DOWN THROUGH PUGET
SOUND ON MONDAY...WITH LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THE B.C. SURFACE HIGH MOVES SE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS W WA
WILL SHIFT MORE E-NE AND STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW MODERATE TO STRONG E-NE FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE N
INLAND WATERS...EXTENDING OUT THROUGH THE STRAIT AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. THE 12Z NWS ARW MODEL PUT WINDS IN THE
30-35 KT RANGE OVER THE NORTH INLAND WATERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCA
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. THIS TIME AROUND THE 12Z CANADIAN MESOSCALE MODEL
WAS WEAKER KEEPING WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE. THE UW WRF-GFS
WAS NOT AVAILABLE IN TIME FOR THE FORECAST. NE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD
WEAKEN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES SE AND
WEAKENS. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
     GALE WATCH NORTH INLAND WATERS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
















000
FXUS66 KSEW 020020 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WARNINGS SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
230 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT FOR AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS WITH A LITTLE RAIN AT THE
COAST AND A CHANCE OF RAIN FARTHER INLAND.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORHTEAST
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AS A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL HELP DRY THE LOW LEVELS OUT AND
CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE LATER IN THE DAY. THERE WILL ALSO
BE SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH INTERIOR.

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BRING DRY AND MAINLY
SUNNY WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...KEEPING THE WEATHER MAINLY DRY. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY COULD BRING
A FEW SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
IT WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY
DIRTY RIDGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 140W
WILL MAINTAIN N-NW FLOW ACROSS W WA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE N FLOW AND APPROACHING
NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 22Z WILL MOVE SE OVER W WA BY 06Z. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN SPREADING OVER W WA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AFTER 00Z WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND BKN050 WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE N AROUND 03Z. LOWERING CIGS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
SPREAD S WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ANYWHERE FROM 06Z-18Z.

KSEA...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD S OVER THE TERMINAL THROUGH
03Z WITH CIGS BKN100 AND HIGHER. MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND 5000 FEET
WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REACH THE AREA BETWEEN 04Z-09Z. MVFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE S-SW 4-7 KT
THROUGH 03Z BUT A WIND SHIFT TO N-NE 4-8 KT IS EXPECTED SOMETIME
BETWEEN 03Z-05Z. KAM

&&

.MARINE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING NORTHERN
VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 2 PM WILL MOVE SE ACROSS W WA TONIGHT. NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER WA WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT.

BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A 1044 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE S
ACROSS INTERIOR B.C. ON MONDAY. RISING PRESSURES OVER B.C. WILL
INCREASE THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR OF W WA STARTING MONDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE INLAND WATERS ZONES FROM BELLINGHAM DOWN THROUGH PUGET
SOUND ON MONDAY...WITH LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THE B.C. SURFACE HIGH MOVES SE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS W WA
WILL SHIFT MORE E-NE AND STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW MODERATE TO STRONG E-NE FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE N
INLAND WATERS...EXTENDING OUT THROUGH THE STRAIT AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. THE 12Z NWS ARW MODEL PUT WINDS IN THE
30-35 KT RANGE OVER THE NORTH INLAND WATERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCA
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. THIS TIME AROUND THE 12Z CANADIAN MESOSCALE MODEL
WAS WEAKER KEEPING WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE. THE UW WRF-GFS
WAS NOT AVAILABLE IN TIME FOR THE FORECAST. NE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD
WEAKEN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES SE AND
WEAKENS. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
     GALE WATCH NORTH INLAND WATERS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML















000
FXUS66 KSEW 020020 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WARNINGS SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
230 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT FOR AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS WITH A LITTLE RAIN AT THE
COAST AND A CHANCE OF RAIN FARTHER INLAND.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORHTEAST
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AS A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL HELP DRY THE LOW LEVELS OUT AND
CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE LATER IN THE DAY. THERE WILL ALSO
BE SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH INTERIOR.

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BRING DRY AND MAINLY
SUNNY WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...KEEPING THE WEATHER MAINLY DRY. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY COULD BRING
A FEW SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
IT WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY
DIRTY RIDGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 140W
WILL MAINTAIN N-NW FLOW ACROSS W WA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE N FLOW AND APPROACHING
NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 22Z WILL MOVE SE OVER W WA BY 06Z. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN SPREADING OVER W WA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AFTER 00Z WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND BKN050 WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE N AROUND 03Z. LOWERING CIGS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
SPREAD S WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ANYWHERE FROM 06Z-18Z.

KSEA...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD S OVER THE TERMINAL THROUGH
03Z WITH CIGS BKN100 AND HIGHER. MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND 5000 FEET
WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REACH THE AREA BETWEEN 04Z-09Z. MVFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE S-SW 4-7 KT
THROUGH 03Z BUT A WIND SHIFT TO N-NE 4-8 KT IS EXPECTED SOMETIME
BETWEEN 03Z-05Z. KAM

&&

.MARINE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING NORTHERN
VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 2 PM WILL MOVE SE ACROSS W WA TONIGHT. NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER WA WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT.

BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A 1044 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE S
ACROSS INTERIOR B.C. ON MONDAY. RISING PRESSURES OVER B.C. WILL
INCREASE THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR OF W WA STARTING MONDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE INLAND WATERS ZONES FROM BELLINGHAM DOWN THROUGH PUGET
SOUND ON MONDAY...WITH LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THE B.C. SURFACE HIGH MOVES SE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS W WA
WILL SHIFT MORE E-NE AND STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW MODERATE TO STRONG E-NE FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE N
INLAND WATERS...EXTENDING OUT THROUGH THE STRAIT AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. THE 12Z NWS ARW MODEL PUT WINDS IN THE
30-35 KT RANGE OVER THE NORTH INLAND WATERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCA
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. THIS TIME AROUND THE 12Z CANADIAN MESOSCALE MODEL
WAS WEAKER KEEPING WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE. THE UW WRF-GFS
WAS NOT AVAILABLE IN TIME FOR THE FORECAST. NE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD
WEAKEN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES SE AND
WEAKENS. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
     GALE WATCH NORTH INLAND WATERS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
















000
FXUS66 KOTX 012324
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
324 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system will pass through the region tonight and
Monday with the potential for light snow mainly for the Idaho
Panhandle, along with breezy conditions across much of the region
Monday night. Much colder air moves in behind this system, with
temperatures well below average for the middle of the week. A dry
period, with moderating temperature will follow for the end of
the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday Night...Satellite imagery reveals a
northwest trajectory upper level short wave descending down the
Canadian Pacific coast this afternoon. Latest models initialize
this feature plausibly and are in agreement in tracking the
dynamic base of this wave to the west of the forecast area over
the next 24 hours. There is a weaker secondary wave embedded in
the main frontal band over northern British Columbia. While the
main wave will pass harmlessly to the west other than a few snow
showers in the Cascades tonight...the secondary wave will
sideswipe the region and provide some lift and frontal focus over
the Idaho Panhandle during the day on Monday...with some snow
shower activity slopping into far eastern Washington. The deep
basin and Cascades will be too far west to be impacted beyond
increased clouds and stray flurries in the mountains.

In the wake of this wave passage another shot of cold Canadian air
will invade the region Monday night...squeezing through the
northern gaps of the Okanogan Valley and Purcell trench for
blustery...windy and raw conditions overnight and into Tuesday
morning.

* Snow amounts: Scattered to numerous snow showers will arrive early
  Monday over north Idaho and the northeast Washington
  mountains...and spread over the entire Idaho Panhandle during
  the day (with fringing hit- and-miss snow showers over far
  eastern Washington) and linger over the Shoshone County High
  terrain and Camas Prairie Monday night. Snow amounts will range
  from less than an inch in the north Idaho Valleys to two to 4
  inches over the mountains above 4000 feet. Afternoon instability
  promoted by mild upper 30s to low 40s surface temperatures will
  combine with cold temperatures aloft in the cusp of this wave to
  promote instability showers over the threat area. Some of these
  snow showers could be briefly intense but will be mainly focused
  over high terrain. By afternoon road surface temperatures will
  be well above freezing so no significant impacts are expected
  unless an unusually burly shower dumps an inch or so in a short
  time thus overwhelming the specific heat capacity of the road
  surface. This possibility cannot be pinned down with any
  certainty at this time.

* Wind: Monday evening the next dry and cool Canadian air mass
  invasion will commence through the northern mountain gaps.
  Expected gradient orientation suggest the Okanogan Valley will
  be the favored channel for this dense dry air with the Purcell
  trench also receiving a windy push. At this time gradient
  strength does not look sufficient for any wind highlights but a
  solid 20 to 30 mph through the Okanogan and 15 to 25 mph through
  the Purcell trench looks quite plausible. This dense air will
  follow gravity into the deep basin with breezy conditions also
  expected over the Waterville Plateau and into the Moses Lake
  region. Ramifications of this push besides the normal wind
  hazards will be very cool wind chill temperatures Tuesday
  morning across much of the region.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Dry and mostly clear conditions will
return for this period with the next strong upper level ridge
building aloft with continued but diminishing dry northerly flow
at the surface. The main issue will be cold morning low
temperatures particularly on Wednesday morning as winds die out
and radiational cooling becomes dominant. Otherwise...no
significant weather is expected. /Fugazzi

Thursday through Sunday. Very few changes were made to the
extended forecast because very little weather is expected during
this time. The beginning of this time frame will feature an area
of high pressure centered just off shore from San Francisco Bay.
An upper level ridge will extend north and west. The upper level
ridge axis to our west and a broad trough over the eastern half of
the US places the Inland Northwest under northwesterly flow aloft.
The northwesterly flow aloft will usher in the occasional
disturbance bringing increased cloud coverage and enhancing the
chance for precipitation. At this time, a slight chance of
rain/snow was added to the forecast for one of these waves
embedded in the northwest flow. The best chance of precipitation
will occur over far northeastern Washington and the northern Idaho
counties. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected with near to
slightly above average temperatures.

Looking at the weekend and beyond, a very large low will deepen
over the eastern Pacific (near 40N 150W). The extended models are
in great agreement of this feature developing which by the end of
the weekend will displace the upper level ridge directly over the
Pacific Northwest. Then by early next week, the open trough over
the Pacific begins to eject moisture in the form of southwesterly
flow aloft toward our region. While this is typically a warm
pattern, it does introduce the possibility for rain and mountain
snow mid next week. That is well beyond what I feel comfortable
forecasting for but given our warm and dry weather, it`s worth
pointing out any potential changes to this stubborn pattern.
/AB


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected at all TAF sites through
Monday 00z. High clouds will thicken tonight. Some light snow is
possible over the north Cascades tonight but should not effect any
of the TAF sites. On Monday a weak weather disturbance will cross
the area from north to south. scattered -SHSN will develop over
the eastern third of WA and all of north ID. There is a chance of
brief MVFR visibilities in -SN at the KCOE TAF site during the
afternoon and some showers will exist in the vicinity of
KGEG...KSFF...KPUW and KLWS...but the densest concentration of
showers will lay to the east of the TAF sites with isolated _SHSN
over the Cascades. /MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        29  42  20  35  17  41 /  10  30  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  27  42  18  36  14  44 /  10  50  30  10   0   0
Pullman        29  41  21  35  17  44 /   0  40  20  10   0   0
Lewiston       30  46  25  40  20  47 /   0  20  20  10   0   0
Colville       28  44  22  40  16  46 /  10  50  10  10   0   0
Sandpoint      26  39  16  33  12  40 /  10  60  50  10   0   0
Kellogg        26  38  16  31  13  40 /   0  70  70  10   0   0
Moses Lake     32  49  25  44  20  48 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      32  50  25  44  21  49 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           29  45  22  45  19  49 /  10  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 012324
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
324 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system will pass through the region tonight and
Monday with the potential for light snow mainly for the Idaho
Panhandle, along with breezy conditions across much of the region
Monday night. Much colder air moves in behind this system, with
temperatures well below average for the middle of the week. A dry
period, with moderating temperature will follow for the end of
the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday Night...Satellite imagery reveals a
northwest trajectory upper level short wave descending down the
Canadian Pacific coast this afternoon. Latest models initialize
this feature plausibly and are in agreement in tracking the
dynamic base of this wave to the west of the forecast area over
the next 24 hours. There is a weaker secondary wave embedded in
the main frontal band over northern British Columbia. While the
main wave will pass harmlessly to the west other than a few snow
showers in the Cascades tonight...the secondary wave will
sideswipe the region and provide some lift and frontal focus over
the Idaho Panhandle during the day on Monday...with some snow
shower activity slopping into far eastern Washington. The deep
basin and Cascades will be too far west to be impacted beyond
increased clouds and stray flurries in the mountains.

In the wake of this wave passage another shot of cold Canadian air
will invade the region Monday night...squeezing through the
northern gaps of the Okanogan Valley and Purcell trench for
blustery...windy and raw conditions overnight and into Tuesday
morning.

* Snow amounts: Scattered to numerous snow showers will arrive early
  Monday over north Idaho and the northeast Washington
  mountains...and spread over the entire Idaho Panhandle during
  the day (with fringing hit- and-miss snow showers over far
  eastern Washington) and linger over the Shoshone County High
  terrain and Camas Prairie Monday night. Snow amounts will range
  from less than an inch in the north Idaho Valleys to two to 4
  inches over the mountains above 4000 feet. Afternoon instability
  promoted by mild upper 30s to low 40s surface temperatures will
  combine with cold temperatures aloft in the cusp of this wave to
  promote instability showers over the threat area. Some of these
  snow showers could be briefly intense but will be mainly focused
  over high terrain. By afternoon road surface temperatures will
  be well above freezing so no significant impacts are expected
  unless an unusually burly shower dumps an inch or so in a short
  time thus overwhelming the specific heat capacity of the road
  surface. This possibility cannot be pinned down with any
  certainty at this time.

* Wind: Monday evening the next dry and cool Canadian air mass
  invasion will commence through the northern mountain gaps.
  Expected gradient orientation suggest the Okanogan Valley will
  be the favored channel for this dense dry air with the Purcell
  trench also receiving a windy push. At this time gradient
  strength does not look sufficient for any wind highlights but a
  solid 20 to 30 mph through the Okanogan and 15 to 25 mph through
  the Purcell trench looks quite plausible. This dense air will
  follow gravity into the deep basin with breezy conditions also
  expected over the Waterville Plateau and into the Moses Lake
  region. Ramifications of this push besides the normal wind
  hazards will be very cool wind chill temperatures Tuesday
  morning across much of the region.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Dry and mostly clear conditions will
return for this period with the next strong upper level ridge
building aloft with continued but diminishing dry northerly flow
at the surface. The main issue will be cold morning low
temperatures particularly on Wednesday morning as winds die out
and radiational cooling becomes dominant. Otherwise...no
significant weather is expected. /Fugazzi

Thursday through Sunday. Very few changes were made to the
extended forecast because very little weather is expected during
this time. The beginning of this time frame will feature an area
of high pressure centered just off shore from San Francisco Bay.
An upper level ridge will extend north and west. The upper level
ridge axis to our west and a broad trough over the eastern half of
the US places the Inland Northwest under northwesterly flow aloft.
The northwesterly flow aloft will usher in the occasional
disturbance bringing increased cloud coverage and enhancing the
chance for precipitation. At this time, a slight chance of
rain/snow was added to the forecast for one of these waves
embedded in the northwest flow. The best chance of precipitation
will occur over far northeastern Washington and the northern Idaho
counties. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected with near to
slightly above average temperatures.

Looking at the weekend and beyond, a very large low will deepen
over the eastern Pacific (near 40N 150W). The extended models are
in great agreement of this feature developing which by the end of
the weekend will displace the upper level ridge directly over the
Pacific Northwest. Then by early next week, the open trough over
the Pacific begins to eject moisture in the form of southwesterly
flow aloft toward our region. While this is typically a warm
pattern, it does introduce the possibility for rain and mountain
snow mid next week. That is well beyond what I feel comfortable
forecasting for but given our warm and dry weather, it`s worth
pointing out any potential changes to this stubborn pattern.
/AB


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected at all TAF sites through
Monday 00z. High clouds will thicken tonight. Some light snow is
possible over the north Cascades tonight but should not effect any
of the TAF sites. On Monday a weak weather disturbance will cross
the area from north to south. scattered -SHSN will develop over
the eastern third of WA and all of north ID. There is a chance of
brief MVFR visibilities in -SN at the KCOE TAF site during the
afternoon and some showers will exist in the vicinity of
KGEG...KSFF...KPUW and KLWS...but the densest concentration of
showers will lay to the east of the TAF sites with isolated _SHSN
over the Cascades. /MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        29  42  20  35  17  41 /  10  30  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  27  42  18  36  14  44 /  10  50  30  10   0   0
Pullman        29  41  21  35  17  44 /   0  40  20  10   0   0
Lewiston       30  46  25  40  20  47 /   0  20  20  10   0   0
Colville       28  44  22  40  16  46 /  10  50  10  10   0   0
Sandpoint      26  39  16  33  12  40 /  10  60  50  10   0   0
Kellogg        26  38  16  31  13  40 /   0  70  70  10   0   0
Moses Lake     32  49  25  44  20  48 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      32  50  25  44  21  49 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           29  45  22  45  19  49 /  10  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 012324
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
324 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system will pass through the region tonight and
Monday with the potential for light snow mainly for the Idaho
Panhandle, along with breezy conditions across much of the region
Monday night. Much colder air moves in behind this system, with
temperatures well below average for the middle of the week. A dry
period, with moderating temperature will follow for the end of
the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday Night...Satellite imagery reveals a
northwest trajectory upper level short wave descending down the
Canadian Pacific coast this afternoon. Latest models initialize
this feature plausibly and are in agreement in tracking the
dynamic base of this wave to the west of the forecast area over
the next 24 hours. There is a weaker secondary wave embedded in
the main frontal band over northern British Columbia. While the
main wave will pass harmlessly to the west other than a few snow
showers in the Cascades tonight...the secondary wave will
sideswipe the region and provide some lift and frontal focus over
the Idaho Panhandle during the day on Monday...with some snow
shower activity slopping into far eastern Washington. The deep
basin and Cascades will be too far west to be impacted beyond
increased clouds and stray flurries in the mountains.

In the wake of this wave passage another shot of cold Canadian air
will invade the region Monday night...squeezing through the
northern gaps of the Okanogan Valley and Purcell trench for
blustery...windy and raw conditions overnight and into Tuesday
morning.

* Snow amounts: Scattered to numerous snow showers will arrive early
  Monday over north Idaho and the northeast Washington
  mountains...and spread over the entire Idaho Panhandle during
  the day (with fringing hit- and-miss snow showers over far
  eastern Washington) and linger over the Shoshone County High
  terrain and Camas Prairie Monday night. Snow amounts will range
  from less than an inch in the north Idaho Valleys to two to 4
  inches over the mountains above 4000 feet. Afternoon instability
  promoted by mild upper 30s to low 40s surface temperatures will
  combine with cold temperatures aloft in the cusp of this wave to
  promote instability showers over the threat area. Some of these
  snow showers could be briefly intense but will be mainly focused
  over high terrain. By afternoon road surface temperatures will
  be well above freezing so no significant impacts are expected
  unless an unusually burly shower dumps an inch or so in a short
  time thus overwhelming the specific heat capacity of the road
  surface. This possibility cannot be pinned down with any
  certainty at this time.

* Wind: Monday evening the next dry and cool Canadian air mass
  invasion will commence through the northern mountain gaps.
  Expected gradient orientation suggest the Okanogan Valley will
  be the favored channel for this dense dry air with the Purcell
  trench also receiving a windy push. At this time gradient
  strength does not look sufficient for any wind highlights but a
  solid 20 to 30 mph through the Okanogan and 15 to 25 mph through
  the Purcell trench looks quite plausible. This dense air will
  follow gravity into the deep basin with breezy conditions also
  expected over the Waterville Plateau and into the Moses Lake
  region. Ramifications of this push besides the normal wind
  hazards will be very cool wind chill temperatures Tuesday
  morning across much of the region.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Dry and mostly clear conditions will
return for this period with the next strong upper level ridge
building aloft with continued but diminishing dry northerly flow
at the surface. The main issue will be cold morning low
temperatures particularly on Wednesday morning as winds die out
and radiational cooling becomes dominant. Otherwise...no
significant weather is expected. /Fugazzi

Thursday through Sunday. Very few changes were made to the
extended forecast because very little weather is expected during
this time. The beginning of this time frame will feature an area
of high pressure centered just off shore from San Francisco Bay.
An upper level ridge will extend north and west. The upper level
ridge axis to our west and a broad trough over the eastern half of
the US places the Inland Northwest under northwesterly flow aloft.
The northwesterly flow aloft will usher in the occasional
disturbance bringing increased cloud coverage and enhancing the
chance for precipitation. At this time, a slight chance of
rain/snow was added to the forecast for one of these waves
embedded in the northwest flow. The best chance of precipitation
will occur over far northeastern Washington and the northern Idaho
counties. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected with near to
slightly above average temperatures.

Looking at the weekend and beyond, a very large low will deepen
over the eastern Pacific (near 40N 150W). The extended models are
in great agreement of this feature developing which by the end of
the weekend will displace the upper level ridge directly over the
Pacific Northwest. Then by early next week, the open trough over
the Pacific begins to eject moisture in the form of southwesterly
flow aloft toward our region. While this is typically a warm
pattern, it does introduce the possibility for rain and mountain
snow mid next week. That is well beyond what I feel comfortable
forecasting for but given our warm and dry weather, it`s worth
pointing out any potential changes to this stubborn pattern.
/AB


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected at all TAF sites through
Monday 00z. High clouds will thicken tonight. Some light snow is
possible over the north Cascades tonight but should not effect any
of the TAF sites. On Monday a weak weather disturbance will cross
the area from north to south. scattered -SHSN will develop over
the eastern third of WA and all of north ID. There is a chance of
brief MVFR visibilities in -SN at the KCOE TAF site during the
afternoon and some showers will exist in the vicinity of
KGEG...KSFF...KPUW and KLWS...but the densest concentration of
showers will lay to the east of the TAF sites with isolated _SHSN
over the Cascades. /MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        29  42  20  35  17  41 /  10  30  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  27  42  18  36  14  44 /  10  50  30  10   0   0
Pullman        29  41  21  35  17  44 /   0  40  20  10   0   0
Lewiston       30  46  25  40  20  47 /   0  20  20  10   0   0
Colville       28  44  22  40  16  46 /  10  50  10  10   0   0
Sandpoint      26  39  16  33  12  40 /  10  60  50  10   0   0
Kellogg        26  38  16  31  13  40 /   0  70  70  10   0   0
Moses Lake     32  49  25  44  20  48 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      32  50  25  44  21  49 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           29  45  22  45  19  49 /  10  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 012324
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
324 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system will pass through the region tonight and
Monday with the potential for light snow mainly for the Idaho
Panhandle, along with breezy conditions across much of the region
Monday night. Much colder air moves in behind this system, with
temperatures well below average for the middle of the week. A dry
period, with moderating temperature will follow for the end of
the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday Night...Satellite imagery reveals a
northwest trajectory upper level short wave descending down the
Canadian Pacific coast this afternoon. Latest models initialize
this feature plausibly and are in agreement in tracking the
dynamic base of this wave to the west of the forecast area over
the next 24 hours. There is a weaker secondary wave embedded in
the main frontal band over northern British Columbia. While the
main wave will pass harmlessly to the west other than a few snow
showers in the Cascades tonight...the secondary wave will
sideswipe the region and provide some lift and frontal focus over
the Idaho Panhandle during the day on Monday...with some snow
shower activity slopping into far eastern Washington. The deep
basin and Cascades will be too far west to be impacted beyond
increased clouds and stray flurries in the mountains.

In the wake of this wave passage another shot of cold Canadian air
will invade the region Monday night...squeezing through the
northern gaps of the Okanogan Valley and Purcell trench for
blustery...windy and raw conditions overnight and into Tuesday
morning.

* Snow amounts: Scattered to numerous snow showers will arrive early
  Monday over north Idaho and the northeast Washington
  mountains...and spread over the entire Idaho Panhandle during
  the day (with fringing hit- and-miss snow showers over far
  eastern Washington) and linger over the Shoshone County High
  terrain and Camas Prairie Monday night. Snow amounts will range
  from less than an inch in the north Idaho Valleys to two to 4
  inches over the mountains above 4000 feet. Afternoon instability
  promoted by mild upper 30s to low 40s surface temperatures will
  combine with cold temperatures aloft in the cusp of this wave to
  promote instability showers over the threat area. Some of these
  snow showers could be briefly intense but will be mainly focused
  over high terrain. By afternoon road surface temperatures will
  be well above freezing so no significant impacts are expected
  unless an unusually burly shower dumps an inch or so in a short
  time thus overwhelming the specific heat capacity of the road
  surface. This possibility cannot be pinned down with any
  certainty at this time.

* Wind: Monday evening the next dry and cool Canadian air mass
  invasion will commence through the northern mountain gaps.
  Expected gradient orientation suggest the Okanogan Valley will
  be the favored channel for this dense dry air with the Purcell
  trench also receiving a windy push. At this time gradient
  strength does not look sufficient for any wind highlights but a
  solid 20 to 30 mph through the Okanogan and 15 to 25 mph through
  the Purcell trench looks quite plausible. This dense air will
  follow gravity into the deep basin with breezy conditions also
  expected over the Waterville Plateau and into the Moses Lake
  region. Ramifications of this push besides the normal wind
  hazards will be very cool wind chill temperatures Tuesday
  morning across much of the region.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Dry and mostly clear conditions will
return for this period with the next strong upper level ridge
building aloft with continued but diminishing dry northerly flow
at the surface. The main issue will be cold morning low
temperatures particularly on Wednesday morning as winds die out
and radiational cooling becomes dominant. Otherwise...no
significant weather is expected. /Fugazzi

Thursday through Sunday. Very few changes were made to the
extended forecast because very little weather is expected during
this time. The beginning of this time frame will feature an area
of high pressure centered just off shore from San Francisco Bay.
An upper level ridge will extend north and west. The upper level
ridge axis to our west and a broad trough over the eastern half of
the US places the Inland Northwest under northwesterly flow aloft.
The northwesterly flow aloft will usher in the occasional
disturbance bringing increased cloud coverage and enhancing the
chance for precipitation. At this time, a slight chance of
rain/snow was added to the forecast for one of these waves
embedded in the northwest flow. The best chance of precipitation
will occur over far northeastern Washington and the northern Idaho
counties. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected with near to
slightly above average temperatures.

Looking at the weekend and beyond, a very large low will deepen
over the eastern Pacific (near 40N 150W). The extended models are
in great agreement of this feature developing which by the end of
the weekend will displace the upper level ridge directly over the
Pacific Northwest. Then by early next week, the open trough over
the Pacific begins to eject moisture in the form of southwesterly
flow aloft toward our region. While this is typically a warm
pattern, it does introduce the possibility for rain and mountain
snow mid next week. That is well beyond what I feel comfortable
forecasting for but given our warm and dry weather, it`s worth
pointing out any potential changes to this stubborn pattern.
/AB


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected at all TAF sites through
Monday 00z. High clouds will thicken tonight. Some light snow is
possible over the north Cascades tonight but should not effect any
of the TAF sites. On Monday a weak weather disturbance will cross
the area from north to south. scattered -SHSN will develop over
the eastern third of WA and all of north ID. There is a chance of
brief MVFR visibilities in -SN at the KCOE TAF site during the
afternoon and some showers will exist in the vicinity of
KGEG...KSFF...KPUW and KLWS...but the densest concentration of
showers will lay to the east of the TAF sites with isolated _SHSN
over the Cascades. /MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        29  42  20  35  17  41 /  10  30  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  27  42  18  36  14  44 /  10  50  30  10   0   0
Pullman        29  41  21  35  17  44 /   0  40  20  10   0   0
Lewiston       30  46  25  40  20  47 /   0  20  20  10   0   0
Colville       28  44  22  40  16  46 /  10  50  10  10   0   0
Sandpoint      26  39  16  33  12  40 /  10  60  50  10   0   0
Kellogg        26  38  16  31  13  40 /   0  70  70  10   0   0
Moses Lake     32  49  25  44  20  48 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      32  50  25  44  21  49 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           29  45  22  45  19  49 /  10  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 012229
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
230 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT FOR AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS WITH A LITTLE RAIN AT THE
COAST AND A CHANCE OF RAIN FARTHER INLAND.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORHTEAST
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AS A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL HELP DRY THE LOW LEVELS OUT AND
CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE LATER IN THE DAY. THERE WILL ALSO
BE SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH INTERIOR.

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BRING DRY AND MAINLY
SUNNY WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...KEEPING THE WEATHER MAINLY DRY. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY COULD BRING
A FEW SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
IT WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY
DIRTY RIDGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 140W
WILL MAINTAIN N-NW FLOW ACROSS W WA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE N FLOW AND APPROACHING
NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 22Z WILL MOVE SE OVER W WA BY 06Z. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN SPREADING OVER W WA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AFTER 00Z WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND BKN050 WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE N AROUND 03Z. LOWERING CIGS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
SPREAD S WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ANYWHERE FROM 06Z-18Z.

KSEA...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD S OVER THE TERMINAL THROUGH
03Z WITH CIGS BKN100 AND HIGHER. MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND 5000 FEET
WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REACH THE AREA BETWEEN 04Z-09Z. MVFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE S-SW 4-7 KT
THROUGH 03Z BUT A WIND SHIFT TO N-NE 4-8 KT IS EXPECTED SOMETIME
BETWEEN 03Z-05Z. KAM

&&

.MARINE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING NORTHERN
VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 2 PM WILL MOVE SE ACROSS W WA TONIGHT. NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER WA WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT.

BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A 1044 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE S
ACROSS INTERIOR B.C. ON MONDAY. RISING PRESSURES OVER B.C. WILL
INCREASE THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR OF W WA STARTING MONDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE INLAND WATERS ZONES FROM BELLINGHAM DOWN THROUGH PUGET
SOUND ON MONDAY...WITH LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THE B.C. SURFACE HIGH MOVES SE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS W WA
WILL SHIFT MORE E-NE AND STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW MODERATE TO STRONG E-NE FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE N
INLAND WATERS...EXTENDING OUT THROUGH THE STRAIT AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. THE 12Z NWS ARW MODEL PUT WINDS IN THE
30-35 KT RANGE OVER THE NORTH INLAND WATERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCA
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. THIS TIME AROUND THE 12Z CANADIAN MESOSCALE MODEL
WAS WEAKER KEEPING WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE. THE UW WRF-GFS
WAS NOT AVAILABLE IN TIME FOR THE FORECAST. NE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD
WEAKEN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES SE AND
WEAKENS. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KSEW 012229
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
230 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT FOR AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS WITH A LITTLE RAIN AT THE
COAST AND A CHANCE OF RAIN FARTHER INLAND.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORHTEAST
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AS A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL HELP DRY THE LOW LEVELS OUT AND
CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE LATER IN THE DAY. THERE WILL ALSO
BE SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH INTERIOR.

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BRING DRY AND MAINLY
SUNNY WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...KEEPING THE WEATHER MAINLY DRY. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY COULD BRING
A FEW SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
IT WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY
DIRTY RIDGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 140W
WILL MAINTAIN N-NW FLOW ACROSS W WA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE N FLOW AND APPROACHING
NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 22Z WILL MOVE SE OVER W WA BY 06Z. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN SPREADING OVER W WA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AFTER 00Z WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND BKN050 WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE N AROUND 03Z. LOWERING CIGS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
SPREAD S WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ANYWHERE FROM 06Z-18Z.

KSEA...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD S OVER THE TERMINAL THROUGH
03Z WITH CIGS BKN100 AND HIGHER. MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND 5000 FEET
WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REACH THE AREA BETWEEN 04Z-09Z. MVFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE S-SW 4-7 KT
THROUGH 03Z BUT A WIND SHIFT TO N-NE 4-8 KT IS EXPECTED SOMETIME
BETWEEN 03Z-05Z. KAM

&&

.MARINE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING NORTHERN
VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 2 PM WILL MOVE SE ACROSS W WA TONIGHT. NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER WA WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT.

BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A 1044 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE S
ACROSS INTERIOR B.C. ON MONDAY. RISING PRESSURES OVER B.C. WILL
INCREASE THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR OF W WA STARTING MONDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE INLAND WATERS ZONES FROM BELLINGHAM DOWN THROUGH PUGET
SOUND ON MONDAY...WITH LOCAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THE B.C. SURFACE HIGH MOVES SE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS W WA
WILL SHIFT MORE E-NE AND STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW MODERATE TO STRONG E-NE FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE N
INLAND WATERS...EXTENDING OUT THROUGH THE STRAIT AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. THE 12Z NWS ARW MODEL PUT WINDS IN THE
30-35 KT RANGE OVER THE NORTH INLAND WATERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCA
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. THIS TIME AROUND THE 12Z CANADIAN MESOSCALE MODEL
WAS WEAKER KEEPING WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE. THE UW WRF-GFS
WAS NOT AVAILABLE IN TIME FOR THE FORECAST. NE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD
WEAKEN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES SE AND
WEAKENS. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML













000
FXUS66 KOTX 012221
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
221 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system will pass through the region tonight and
Monday with the potential for light snow mainly for the Idaho
Panhandle, along with breezy conditions across much of the region
Monday night. Much colder air moves in behind this system, with
temperatures well below average for the middle of the week. A dry
period, with moderating temperature will follow for the end of
the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday Night...Satellite imagery reveals a
northwest trajectory upper level short wave descending down the
Canadian Pacific coast this afternoon. Latest models initialize
this feature plausibly and are in agreement in tracking the
dynamic base of this wave to the west of the forecast area over
the next 24 hours. There is a weaker secondary wave embedded in
the main frontal band over northern British Columbia. While the
main wave will pass harmlessly to the west other than a few snow
showers in the Cascades tonight...the secondary wave will
sideswipe the region and provide some lift and frontal focus over
the Idaho Panhandle during the day on Monday...with some snow
shower activity slopping into far eastern Washington. The deep
basin and Cascades will be too far west to be impacted beyond
increased clouds and stray flurries in the mountains.

In the wake of this wave passage another shot of cold Canadian air
will invade the region Monday night...squeezing through the
northern gaps of the Okanogan Valley and Purcell trench for
blustery...windy and raw conditions overnight and into Tuesday
morning.

* Snow amounts: Scattered to numerous snow showers will arrive early
  Monday over north Idaho and the northeast Washington
  mountains...and spread over the entire Idaho Panhandle during
  the day (with fringing hit- and-miss snow showers over far
  eastern Washington) and linger over the Shoshone County High
  terrain and Camas Prairie Monday night. Snow amounts will range
  from less than an inch in the north Idaho Valleys to two to 4
  inches over the mountains above 4000 feet. Afternoon instability
  promoted by mild upper 30s to low 40s surface temperatures will
  combine with cold temperatures aloft in the cusp of this wave to
  promote instability showers over the threat area. Some of these
  snow showers could be briefly intense but will be mainly focused
  over high terrain. By afternoon road surface temperatures will
  be well above freezing so no significant impacts are expected
  unless an unusually burly shower dumps an inch or so in a short
  time thus overwhelming the specific heat capacity of the road
  surface. This possibility cannot be pinned down with any
  certainty at this time.

* Wind: Monday evening the next dry and cool Canadian air mass
  invasion will commence through the northern mountain gaps.
  Expected gradient orientation suggest the Okanogan Valley will
  be the favored channel for this dense dry air with the Purcell
  trench also receiving a windy push. At this time gradient
  strength does not look sufficient for any wind highlights but a
  solid 20 to 30 mph through the Okanogan and 15 to 25 mph through
  the Purcell trench looks quite plausible. This dense air will
  follow gravity into the deep basin with breezy conditions also
  expected over the Waterville Plateau and into the Moses Lake
  region. Ramifications of this push besides the normal wind
  hazards will be very cool wind chill temperatures Tuesday
  morning across much of the region.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Dry and mostly clear conditions will
return for this period with the next strong upper level ridge
building aloft with continued but diminishing dry northerly flow
at the surface. The main issue will be cold morning low
temperatures particularly on Wednesday morning as winds die out
and radiational cooling becomes dominant. Otherwise...no
significant weather is expected. /Fugazzi

Thursday through Sunday. Very few changes were made to the
extended forecast because very little weather is expected during
this time. The beginning of this time frame will feature an area
of high pressure centered just off shore from San Francisco Bay.
An upper level ridge will extend north and west. The upper level
ridge axis to our west and a broad trough over the eastern half of
the US places the Inland Northwest under northwesterly flow aloft.
The northwesterly flow aloft will usher in the occasional
disturbance bringing increased cloud coverage and enhancing the
chance for precipitation. At this time, a slight chance of
rain/snow was added to the forecast for one of these waves
embedded in the northwest flow. The best chance of precipitation
will occur over far northeastern Washington and the northern Idaho
counties. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected with near to
slightly above average temperatures.

Looking at the weekend and beyond, a very large low will deepen
over the eastern Pacific (near 40N 150W). The extended models are
in great agreement of this feature developing which by the end of
the weekend will displace the upper level ridge directly over the
Pacific Northwest. Then by early next week, the open trough over
the Pacific begins to eject moisture in the form of southwesterly
flow aloft toward our region. While this is typically a warm
pattern, it does introduce the possibility for rain and mountain
snow mid next week. That is well beyond what I feel comfortable
forecasting for but given our warm and dry weather, it`s worth
pointing out any potential changes to this stubborn pattern.
/AB


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected at all TAF sites through
Monday 18z. High clouds will be on the increase this morning from
the north...then thicken tonight. Some light snow is possible over
the north Cascades tonight but should not effect any of the TAF
sites. Winds will be light. /MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        29  42  20  35  17  41 /  10  30  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  27  42  18  36  14  44 /  10  50  30  10   0   0
Pullman        29  41  21  35  17  44 /   0  40  20  10   0   0
Lewiston       30  46  25  40  20  47 /   0  20  20  10   0   0
Colville       28  44  22  40  16  46 /  10  50  10  10   0   0
Sandpoint      26  39  16  33  12  40 /  10  60  50  10   0   0
Kellogg        26  38  16  31  13  40 /   0  70  70  10   0   0
Moses Lake     32  49  25  44  20  48 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      32  50  25  44  21  49 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           29  45  22  45  19  49 /  10  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 012214
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
213 PM PST SUN MAR  1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WITH
THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM TRACKING OFFSHORE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST
MOVER...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINANT THIS WINTER IS THEN EXPECTED
TO RETURN...LIKELY LEADING TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWS A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO NRN VANCOUVER
ISLAND...AND MOVING RAPIDLY DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. SOME
HIGH CLOUDINESS IS ALREADY STARTING TO FILTER THE SUNSHINE IN THE
PORTLAND METRO AREA...THESE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND SPREAD SOUTH AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES.

POP/QPF FORECAST IS ACTUALLY A LITTLE CHALLENGING WITH THIS SYSTEM
FOR TONIGHT. MODELS HAD BACKED OFF ON THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP
INLAND OVERNIGHT...FAVORING A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK TO THE BEST JET
DYNAMICS. THAT STILL APPEARS TO BE THE CASE...BUT 18Z NAM/GFS AND 15Z
SREF PLUMES INDICATE A DECENT CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THEREFORE WE OPTED TO
KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...WITH CHANCES TAPERING OFF FROM THE NORTH MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER...SPEEDING ALONG ON A 100KT+ NORTHERLY
JET STREAM.

18Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS AROUND IN THE
1500-2000 FT RANGE...SO IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE HIGHER
FOOTHILL/COAST RANGE ELEVATIONS GET A QUICK DUSTING OF SNOW TONIGHT
AND/OR MONDAY MORNING.

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY DRY THINGS OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY. HOWEVER THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG NOR AS DRY
AS IT WAS SATURDAY...SO CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SLUGGISH TO
CLEAR. ALSO THE FLOW ALOFT TAKES SOME TIME TO TURN ANTICYCLONIC WITH
SOME SREF MEMBERS AND THE 18Z NAM EVEN HINTING AT SOME SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING IN THE CASCADES INTO MON NIGHT. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH SOME
SILENT POPS AND A LITTLE BIT OF EXTRA SKY COVER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FOR NOW. MODELS SHOW GOOD CONSENSUS THAT STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL
REBUILD OVER THE REGION TUE/WED...BRINGING US BACK TO AN UNSEASONABLY
DRY REGIME.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE
POSITION LINGERS WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER THE NE
PACIFIC AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC JET
STREAM WELL TO OUR NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...AS MOST GUIDANCE PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE
IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...CONTINUED LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND WITH VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL SEE SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AROUND 5000 TO 7000 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN MVFR CIG AND VIS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME -RA OR -DZ...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. MODELS ARE BACKING OFF ON MVFR CONDITIONS INLAND
SO EXPECT MOSTLY VFR INLAND WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR WITH ANY -RADZ.
VFR RETURNS EVERYWHERE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY MVFR CIG/VIS
OVERNIGHT BUT CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR BY ABOUT MIDDAY MONDAY.
BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
PLAYER THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS REGION TONIGHT INTO MON AM. NOT A LOT OF WIND EXPECTED
WITH FRONT...BUT ENOUGH TO POP 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS...MAINLY OFF CENTRAL OREGON COAST. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA AND WATCH WINDS OFFSHORE THE NORTHERN
OREGON COAST FOR ANY SCA NEED THERE. AFTER TOMORROW...WINDS LOOK
LIKE THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH THE WEEK. WILL SEE A
MIXED SWELL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH PERIODS RANGING FROM
AROUND 8 SECONDS TO AS LONG AS 20 SECONDS. HOWEVER MODELS SHOW
EACH SWELL AT ONLY ABOUT 2 FT SO COMBINED SEAS WILL STILL ONLY BE
3 TO 5 FT. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
     PST MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 012214
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
213 PM PST SUN MAR  1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WITH
THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM TRACKING OFFSHORE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST
MOVER...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINANT THIS WINTER IS THEN EXPECTED
TO RETURN...LIKELY LEADING TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWS A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO NRN VANCOUVER
ISLAND...AND MOVING RAPIDLY DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. SOME
HIGH CLOUDINESS IS ALREADY STARTING TO FILTER THE SUNSHINE IN THE
PORTLAND METRO AREA...THESE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND SPREAD SOUTH AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES.

POP/QPF FORECAST IS ACTUALLY A LITTLE CHALLENGING WITH THIS SYSTEM
FOR TONIGHT. MODELS HAD BACKED OFF ON THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP
INLAND OVERNIGHT...FAVORING A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK TO THE BEST JET
DYNAMICS. THAT STILL APPEARS TO BE THE CASE...BUT 18Z NAM/GFS AND 15Z
SREF PLUMES INDICATE A DECENT CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THEREFORE WE OPTED TO
KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...WITH CHANCES TAPERING OFF FROM THE NORTH MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER...SPEEDING ALONG ON A 100KT+ NORTHERLY
JET STREAM.

18Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS AROUND IN THE
1500-2000 FT RANGE...SO IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE HIGHER
FOOTHILL/COAST RANGE ELEVATIONS GET A QUICK DUSTING OF SNOW TONIGHT
AND/OR MONDAY MORNING.

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY DRY THINGS OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY. HOWEVER THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG NOR AS DRY
AS IT WAS SATURDAY...SO CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SLUGGISH TO
CLEAR. ALSO THE FLOW ALOFT TAKES SOME TIME TO TURN ANTICYCLONIC WITH
SOME SREF MEMBERS AND THE 18Z NAM EVEN HINTING AT SOME SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING IN THE CASCADES INTO MON NIGHT. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH SOME
SILENT POPS AND A LITTLE BIT OF EXTRA SKY COVER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FOR NOW. MODELS SHOW GOOD CONSENSUS THAT STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL
REBUILD OVER THE REGION TUE/WED...BRINGING US BACK TO AN UNSEASONABLY
DRY REGIME.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE
POSITION LINGERS WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER THE NE
PACIFIC AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC JET
STREAM WELL TO OUR NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...AS MOST GUIDANCE PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE
IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...CONTINUED LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND WITH VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL SEE SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AROUND 5000 TO 7000 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN MVFR CIG AND VIS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME -RA OR -DZ...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. MODELS ARE BACKING OFF ON MVFR CONDITIONS INLAND
SO EXPECT MOSTLY VFR INLAND WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR WITH ANY -RADZ.
VFR RETURNS EVERYWHERE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY MVFR CIG/VIS
OVERNIGHT BUT CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR BY ABOUT MIDDAY MONDAY.
BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
PLAYER THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS REGION TONIGHT INTO MON AM. NOT A LOT OF WIND EXPECTED
WITH FRONT...BUT ENOUGH TO POP 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS...MAINLY OFF CENTRAL OREGON COAST. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA AND WATCH WINDS OFFSHORE THE NORTHERN
OREGON COAST FOR ANY SCA NEED THERE. AFTER TOMORROW...WINDS LOOK
LIKE THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH THE WEEK. WILL SEE A
MIXED SWELL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH PERIODS RANGING FROM
AROUND 8 SECONDS TO AS LONG AS 20 SECONDS. HOWEVER MODELS SHOW
EACH SWELL AT ONLY ABOUT 2 FT SO COMBINED SEAS WILL STILL ONLY BE
3 TO 5 FT. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
     PST MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 012214
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
213 PM PST SUN MAR  1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WITH
THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM TRACKING OFFSHORE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST
MOVER...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINANT THIS WINTER IS THEN EXPECTED
TO RETURN...LIKELY LEADING TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWS A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO NRN VANCOUVER
ISLAND...AND MOVING RAPIDLY DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. SOME
HIGH CLOUDINESS IS ALREADY STARTING TO FILTER THE SUNSHINE IN THE
PORTLAND METRO AREA...THESE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND SPREAD SOUTH AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES.

POP/QPF FORECAST IS ACTUALLY A LITTLE CHALLENGING WITH THIS SYSTEM
FOR TONIGHT. MODELS HAD BACKED OFF ON THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP
INLAND OVERNIGHT...FAVORING A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK TO THE BEST JET
DYNAMICS. THAT STILL APPEARS TO BE THE CASE...BUT 18Z NAM/GFS AND 15Z
SREF PLUMES INDICATE A DECENT CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THEREFORE WE OPTED TO
KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...WITH CHANCES TAPERING OFF FROM THE NORTH MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER...SPEEDING ALONG ON A 100KT+ NORTHERLY
JET STREAM.

18Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS AROUND IN THE
1500-2000 FT RANGE...SO IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE HIGHER
FOOTHILL/COAST RANGE ELEVATIONS GET A QUICK DUSTING OF SNOW TONIGHT
AND/OR MONDAY MORNING.

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY DRY THINGS OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY. HOWEVER THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG NOR AS DRY
AS IT WAS SATURDAY...SO CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SLUGGISH TO
CLEAR. ALSO THE FLOW ALOFT TAKES SOME TIME TO TURN ANTICYCLONIC WITH
SOME SREF MEMBERS AND THE 18Z NAM EVEN HINTING AT SOME SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING IN THE CASCADES INTO MON NIGHT. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH SOME
SILENT POPS AND A LITTLE BIT OF EXTRA SKY COVER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FOR NOW. MODELS SHOW GOOD CONSENSUS THAT STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL
REBUILD OVER THE REGION TUE/WED...BRINGING US BACK TO AN UNSEASONABLY
DRY REGIME.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE
POSITION LINGERS WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER THE NE
PACIFIC AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC JET
STREAM WELL TO OUR NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...AS MOST GUIDANCE PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE
IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH MAY LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...CONTINUED LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND WITH VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL SEE SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AROUND 5000 TO 7000 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN MVFR CIG AND VIS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME -RA OR -DZ...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. MODELS ARE BACKING OFF ON MVFR CONDITIONS INLAND
SO EXPECT MOSTLY VFR INLAND WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR WITH ANY -RADZ.
VFR RETURNS EVERYWHERE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY MVFR CIG/VIS
OVERNIGHT BUT CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR BY ABOUT MIDDAY MONDAY.
BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
PLAYER THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS REGION TONIGHT INTO MON AM. NOT A LOT OF WIND EXPECTED
WITH FRONT...BUT ENOUGH TO POP 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS...MAINLY OFF CENTRAL OREGON COAST. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA AND WATCH WINDS OFFSHORE THE NORTHERN
OREGON COAST FOR ANY SCA NEED THERE. AFTER TOMORROW...WINDS LOOK
LIKE THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH THE WEEK. WILL SEE A
MIXED SWELL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH PERIODS RANGING FROM
AROUND 8 SECONDS TO AS LONG AS 20 SECONDS. HOWEVER MODELS SHOW
EACH SWELL AT ONLY ABOUT 2 FT SO COMBINED SEAS WILL STILL ONLY BE
3 TO 5 FT. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
     PST MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 011759
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
958 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TODAY AFTER A
SUNNY START. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA...CAUSING CLOUDS TO INCREASE AND BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. WITH THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM TRACKING OFFSHORE
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER...AND SKIES WILL ALREADY BE CLEARING
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN
DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...THOUGH SOME MODELS HINT AT A SWITCH
TO ONSHORE FLOW AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN DEVELOPING BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...WALL TO WALL SUNSHINE CONTINUES ACROSS THE DISTRICT
THIS MORNING...ASIDE FROM SOME VERY ISOLATED FOG PATCHES IN THE
NEHALEM RIVER VALLEY. INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA...THOUGH VISIBLE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THEY ARE RATHER THIN. HOWEVER MODELS AGREE THAT CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THICKEN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE PUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA. SOME RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PAC NW COAST.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WITH DECREASING POPS FURTHER
INLAND. OVERALL...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND DISCUSSION ARE ON
TRACK...THOUGH WE DID WARM UP TODAYS TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO BRING THEM
CLOSER TO PERSISTENCE.WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 225 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015/

.SHORT TERM...THE BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW OF SATURDAY WAS DECREASING
THIS MORNING AS THE NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF AN
UPPER LOW IN CALIFORNIA CONTINUED TO MOVE AWAY. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW
LOWERED DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA...AND HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL
CLOSE TO FREEZING IN MUCH OF THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFFECTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
WEEK WILL BE AN UPPER RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS OUT NEAR 140W. THIS IS
PRODUCING A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY
WITH MAINLY SOME HIGHER CLOUDS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE WILL
DROP SOUTH ALONG THE B.C. COAST TODAY AND MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE
WASHINGTON AND OREGON COASTS TONIGHT. THE TRACK WILL GIVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE COASTAL AREAS...WITH
DECREASING CHANCES INLAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOME COLDER AIR WITH
IT FOR SOME SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY THE FOOTHILLS AND
COAST RANGE...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT AS YOU GO EASTWARD AND
IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED.

THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA PRETTY EARLY MONDAY FOR
DRAMATICALLY DECREASING SHOWERS AND FOR DECREASING CLOUDS. IT THEN
LOOKS DRY INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH MAINLY A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS AT
TIMES AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OR TWO MOVES THROUGH.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW MARCH COMING IN LIKE A LAMB FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE MEAN
UPPER RIDGE POSITION LINGERS WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS
WINTER...OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD
KEEP THE PACIFIC JET STREAM WELL TO OUR NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY
CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. REMOVED MENTION OF ANY RAIN
FROM THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE VALLEYS...AS MOST GUIDANCE
PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH MAY LAST
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND WITH VFR THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE
POCKETS OF FOG MAINLY IN COWLITZ VALLEY. WEAK FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 02Z ALONG THE COAST...AND INLAND
AFTER 05Z. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
AND OBSCURED HIGHER TERRAIN.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEE INCREASING MVFR CIGS
AFTER 05Z AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM NW. BOWEN/ROCKEY

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
PLAYER THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS REGION TONIGHT INTO MON AM. NOT A LOT OF WIND EXPECTED
WITH FRONT...BUT ENOUGH TO POP 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS...MAINLY OFF CENTRAL OREGON COAST. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA AND WATCH WINDS OFFSHORE THE NORTHERN
OREGON COAST FOR ANY SCA NEED THERE. SEAS HOLDING AT 4 TO 6 FT.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE WATERS THU AND POSSIBLY
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20 KT.
BOWEN/ROCKEY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
     PST MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 011759
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
958 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TODAY AFTER A
SUNNY START. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA...CAUSING CLOUDS TO INCREASE AND BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. WITH THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM TRACKING OFFSHORE
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER...AND SKIES WILL ALREADY BE CLEARING
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN
DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...THOUGH SOME MODELS HINT AT A SWITCH
TO ONSHORE FLOW AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN DEVELOPING BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...WALL TO WALL SUNSHINE CONTINUES ACROSS THE DISTRICT
THIS MORNING...ASIDE FROM SOME VERY ISOLATED FOG PATCHES IN THE
NEHALEM RIVER VALLEY. INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA...THOUGH VISIBLE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THEY ARE RATHER THIN. HOWEVER MODELS AGREE THAT CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THICKEN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE PUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA. SOME RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PAC NW COAST.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WITH DECREASING POPS FURTHER
INLAND. OVERALL...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND DISCUSSION ARE ON
TRACK...THOUGH WE DID WARM UP TODAYS TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO BRING THEM
CLOSER TO PERSISTENCE.WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 225 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015/

.SHORT TERM...THE BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW OF SATURDAY WAS DECREASING
THIS MORNING AS THE NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF AN
UPPER LOW IN CALIFORNIA CONTINUED TO MOVE AWAY. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW
LOWERED DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA...AND HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL
CLOSE TO FREEZING IN MUCH OF THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFFECTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
WEEK WILL BE AN UPPER RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS OUT NEAR 140W. THIS IS
PRODUCING A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY
WITH MAINLY SOME HIGHER CLOUDS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE WILL
DROP SOUTH ALONG THE B.C. COAST TODAY AND MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE
WASHINGTON AND OREGON COASTS TONIGHT. THE TRACK WILL GIVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE COASTAL AREAS...WITH
DECREASING CHANCES INLAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOME COLDER AIR WITH
IT FOR SOME SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY THE FOOTHILLS AND
COAST RANGE...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT AS YOU GO EASTWARD AND
IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED.

THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA PRETTY EARLY MONDAY FOR
DRAMATICALLY DECREASING SHOWERS AND FOR DECREASING CLOUDS. IT THEN
LOOKS DRY INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH MAINLY A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS AT
TIMES AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OR TWO MOVES THROUGH.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW MARCH COMING IN LIKE A LAMB FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE MEAN
UPPER RIDGE POSITION LINGERS WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS
WINTER...OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD
KEEP THE PACIFIC JET STREAM WELL TO OUR NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY
CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. REMOVED MENTION OF ANY RAIN
FROM THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE VALLEYS...AS MOST GUIDANCE
PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH MAY LAST
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND WITH VFR THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE
POCKETS OF FOG MAINLY IN COWLITZ VALLEY. WEAK FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 02Z ALONG THE COAST...AND INLAND
AFTER 05Z. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
AND OBSCURED HIGHER TERRAIN.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEE INCREASING MVFR CIGS
AFTER 05Z AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM NW. BOWEN/ROCKEY

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
PLAYER THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS REGION TONIGHT INTO MON AM. NOT A LOT OF WIND EXPECTED
WITH FRONT...BUT ENOUGH TO POP 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS...MAINLY OFF CENTRAL OREGON COAST. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA AND WATCH WINDS OFFSHORE THE NORTHERN
OREGON COAST FOR ANY SCA NEED THERE. SEAS HOLDING AT 4 TO 6 FT.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE WATERS THU AND POSSIBLY
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20 KT.
BOWEN/ROCKEY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
     PST MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 011759
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
958 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TODAY AFTER A
SUNNY START. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA...CAUSING CLOUDS TO INCREASE AND BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. WITH THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM TRACKING OFFSHORE
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER...AND SKIES WILL ALREADY BE CLEARING
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN
DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...THOUGH SOME MODELS HINT AT A SWITCH
TO ONSHORE FLOW AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN DEVELOPING BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...WALL TO WALL SUNSHINE CONTINUES ACROSS THE DISTRICT
THIS MORNING...ASIDE FROM SOME VERY ISOLATED FOG PATCHES IN THE
NEHALEM RIVER VALLEY. INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA...THOUGH VISIBLE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THEY ARE RATHER THIN. HOWEVER MODELS AGREE THAT CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THICKEN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE PUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA. SOME RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PAC NW COAST.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WITH DECREASING POPS FURTHER
INLAND. OVERALL...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND DISCUSSION ARE ON
TRACK...THOUGH WE DID WARM UP TODAYS TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO BRING THEM
CLOSER TO PERSISTENCE.WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 225 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015/

.SHORT TERM...THE BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW OF SATURDAY WAS DECREASING
THIS MORNING AS THE NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF AN
UPPER LOW IN CALIFORNIA CONTINUED TO MOVE AWAY. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW
LOWERED DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA...AND HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL
CLOSE TO FREEZING IN MUCH OF THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFFECTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
WEEK WILL BE AN UPPER RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS OUT NEAR 140W. THIS IS
PRODUCING A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY
WITH MAINLY SOME HIGHER CLOUDS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE WILL
DROP SOUTH ALONG THE B.C. COAST TODAY AND MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE
WASHINGTON AND OREGON COASTS TONIGHT. THE TRACK WILL GIVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE COASTAL AREAS...WITH
DECREASING CHANCES INLAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOME COLDER AIR WITH
IT FOR SOME SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY THE FOOTHILLS AND
COAST RANGE...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT AS YOU GO EASTWARD AND
IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED.

THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA PRETTY EARLY MONDAY FOR
DRAMATICALLY DECREASING SHOWERS AND FOR DECREASING CLOUDS. IT THEN
LOOKS DRY INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH MAINLY A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS AT
TIMES AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OR TWO MOVES THROUGH.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW MARCH COMING IN LIKE A LAMB FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE MEAN
UPPER RIDGE POSITION LINGERS WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS
WINTER...OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD
KEEP THE PACIFIC JET STREAM WELL TO OUR NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY
CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. REMOVED MENTION OF ANY RAIN
FROM THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE VALLEYS...AS MOST GUIDANCE
PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH MAY LAST
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND WITH VFR THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE
POCKETS OF FOG MAINLY IN COWLITZ VALLEY. WEAK FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 02Z ALONG THE COAST...AND INLAND
AFTER 05Z. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
AND OBSCURED HIGHER TERRAIN.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEE INCREASING MVFR CIGS
AFTER 05Z AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM NW. BOWEN/ROCKEY

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
PLAYER THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS REGION TONIGHT INTO MON AM. NOT A LOT OF WIND EXPECTED
WITH FRONT...BUT ENOUGH TO POP 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS...MAINLY OFF CENTRAL OREGON COAST. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA AND WATCH WINDS OFFSHORE THE NORTHERN
OREGON COAST FOR ANY SCA NEED THERE. SEAS HOLDING AT 4 TO 6 FT.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE WATERS THU AND POSSIBLY
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20 KT.
BOWEN/ROCKEY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
     PST MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 011737
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
937 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry, seasonal conditions will be found across the region today. A
weather system will pass through tonight into early Tuesday with
the potential for light snow, especially for the Idaho Panhandle,
along with breezy conditions. Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of
next week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow
for the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another day of dry and benign conditions albeit with increasing
high and mid level clouds to filter or occlude the sun especially
over the eastern half of the forecast area. Winds will be light
and variable with temperatures recovering off of chilly morning
lows to near or slightly below average. A weak and shearing wave
is descending out of Canada today. This will promote increasing
clouds but nothing beyond that. Any actual precipitation from this
incoming feature will be holding off until Monday and latest
models suggest the potential for only light snow concentrated
mainly over Idaho. Refining this forecast will be the focus of the
afternoon package effort. minimal updates to the Today forecast
to increase cloud cover. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected at all TAF sites through
Monday 18z. High clouds will be on the increase this morning from
the north...then thicken tonight. Some light snow is possible over
the north Cascades tonight but should not effect any of the TAF
sites. Winds will be light. /MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        44  27  41  20  33  17 /   0   0  30  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  45  25  41  18  33  14 /   0   0  60  30  10   0
Pullman        45  28  41  22  33  17 /   0   0  30  20  10   0
Lewiston       46  29  44  26  38  20 /   0   0  30  20  10   0
Colville       47  27  45  23  37  16 /   0  10  30  20  10   0
Sandpoint      40  24  38  17  31  12 /   0  10  60  70  10   0
Kellogg        41  26  38  18  29  13 /   0   0  60  70  10   0
Moses Lake     49  30  50  25  42  20 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      50  32  50  27  42  21 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Omak           50  29  50  23  43  19 /   0  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 011737
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
937 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry, seasonal conditions will be found across the region today. A
weather system will pass through tonight into early Tuesday with
the potential for light snow, especially for the Idaho Panhandle,
along with breezy conditions. Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of
next week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow
for the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another day of dry and benign conditions albeit with increasing
high and mid level clouds to filter or occlude the sun especially
over the eastern half of the forecast area. Winds will be light
and variable with temperatures recovering off of chilly morning
lows to near or slightly below average. A weak and shearing wave
is descending out of Canada today. This will promote increasing
clouds but nothing beyond that. Any actual precipitation from this
incoming feature will be holding off until Monday and latest
models suggest the potential for only light snow concentrated
mainly over Idaho. Refining this forecast will be the focus of the
afternoon package effort. minimal updates to the Today forecast
to increase cloud cover. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected at all TAF sites through
Monday 18z. High clouds will be on the increase this morning from
the north...then thicken tonight. Some light snow is possible over
the north Cascades tonight but should not effect any of the TAF
sites. Winds will be light. /MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        44  27  41  20  33  17 /   0   0  30  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  45  25  41  18  33  14 /   0   0  60  30  10   0
Pullman        45  28  41  22  33  17 /   0   0  30  20  10   0
Lewiston       46  29  44  26  38  20 /   0   0  30  20  10   0
Colville       47  27  45  23  37  16 /   0  10  30  20  10   0
Sandpoint      40  24  38  17  31  12 /   0  10  60  70  10   0
Kellogg        41  26  38  18  29  13 /   0   0  60  70  10   0
Moses Lake     49  30  50  25  42  20 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      50  32  50  27  42  21 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Omak           50  29  50  23  43  19 /   0  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 011737
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
937 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry, seasonal conditions will be found across the region today. A
weather system will pass through tonight into early Tuesday with
the potential for light snow, especially for the Idaho Panhandle,
along with breezy conditions. Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of
next week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow
for the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another day of dry and benign conditions albeit with increasing
high and mid level clouds to filter or occlude the sun especially
over the eastern half of the forecast area. Winds will be light
and variable with temperatures recovering off of chilly morning
lows to near or slightly below average. A weak and shearing wave
is descending out of Canada today. This will promote increasing
clouds but nothing beyond that. Any actual precipitation from this
incoming feature will be holding off until Monday and latest
models suggest the potential for only light snow concentrated
mainly over Idaho. Refining this forecast will be the focus of the
afternoon package effort. minimal updates to the Today forecast
to increase cloud cover. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected at all TAF sites through
Monday 18z. High clouds will be on the increase this morning from
the north...then thicken tonight. Some light snow is possible over
the north Cascades tonight but should not effect any of the TAF
sites. Winds will be light. /MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        44  27  41  20  33  17 /   0   0  30  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  45  25  41  18  33  14 /   0   0  60  30  10   0
Pullman        45  28  41  22  33  17 /   0   0  30  20  10   0
Lewiston       46  29  44  26  38  20 /   0   0  30  20  10   0
Colville       47  27  45  23  37  16 /   0  10  30  20  10   0
Sandpoint      40  24  38  17  31  12 /   0  10  60  70  10   0
Kellogg        41  26  38  18  29  13 /   0   0  60  70  10   0
Moses Lake     49  30  50  25  42  20 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      50  32  50  27  42  21 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Omak           50  29  50  23  43  19 /   0  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 011737
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
937 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry, seasonal conditions will be found across the region today. A
weather system will pass through tonight into early Tuesday with
the potential for light snow, especially for the Idaho Panhandle,
along with breezy conditions. Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of
next week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow
for the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another day of dry and benign conditions albeit with increasing
high and mid level clouds to filter or occlude the sun especially
over the eastern half of the forecast area. Winds will be light
and variable with temperatures recovering off of chilly morning
lows to near or slightly below average. A weak and shearing wave
is descending out of Canada today. This will promote increasing
clouds but nothing beyond that. Any actual precipitation from this
incoming feature will be holding off until Monday and latest
models suggest the potential for only light snow concentrated
mainly over Idaho. Refining this forecast will be the focus of the
afternoon package effort. minimal updates to the Today forecast
to increase cloud cover. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected at all TAF sites through
Monday 18z. High clouds will be on the increase this morning from
the north...then thicken tonight. Some light snow is possible over
the north Cascades tonight but should not effect any of the TAF
sites. Winds will be light. /MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        44  27  41  20  33  17 /   0   0  30  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  45  25  41  18  33  14 /   0   0  60  30  10   0
Pullman        45  28  41  22  33  17 /   0   0  30  20  10   0
Lewiston       46  29  44  26  38  20 /   0   0  30  20  10   0
Colville       47  27  45  23  37  16 /   0  10  30  20  10   0
Sandpoint      40  24  38  17  31  12 /   0  10  60  70  10   0
Kellogg        41  26  38  18  29  13 /   0   0  60  70  10   0
Moses Lake     49  30  50  25  42  20 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      50  32  50  27  42  21 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Omak           50  29  50  23  43  19 /   0  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 011645
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
845 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING
ANOTHER DAY OF FAIR WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY. A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
FOR AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH A FEW
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS WITH A LITTLE RAIN AT THE COAST AND
A CHANCE OF RAIN FARTHER INLAND.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORHTEAST
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AS A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL HELP DRY THE LOW LEVELS OUT AND
CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE LATER IN THE DAY. THERE WILL ALSO
BE SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS DURING THE DAY... ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH INTERIOR.

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BRING DRY AND MAINLY
SUNNY WEATHER TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT
TIMES. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND
MOVES TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE INLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH WEST OR NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON IN ITS WAKE.

A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE MOST
RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW THIS. HOWEVER
THE ECMWF AND EARLIER RUNS OF THE OTHER MODELS INDICATED DRY
WEATHER. I WILL STAND PAT WITH THE DRY FORECAST FOR NOW...AND
HOPEFULLY THE MODEL RUNS TODAY WILL HELP US PIN THIS DOWN.

ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR MORE
DRY WEATHER.   MCDONNAL

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 140W
WILL MAINTAIN DRY NW FLOW ACROSS W WA THROUGH 00Z. AREAS OF HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD S THROUGH 00Z AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. GOOD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL B.C. COAST AT 16Z
WILL MOVE SE OVER W WA BY 06Z. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN SPREADING
OVER W WA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AFTER 00Z WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND
BKN050 WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER THE N AFTER 03Z. LOWERING CIGS AND
AREAS OF RAIN WILL SPREAD S WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE 06Z-15Z.

KSEA...UNRESTRICTED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 03Z WITH JUST SOME HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AT TIMES. CIGS BKN050-100 INCREASING AFTER 03Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE S-SW 4-7 KT. KAM

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER W WA
TODAY...EMBEDDED IN A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS BETWEEN A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE AND ANOTHER CENTERED OVER MT. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ACROSS W WA WILL REMAIN WEAK...SO WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL B.C. COAST THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE SE ACROSS W WA TONIGHT. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE MODERATE N WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
THE MORNING UPDATE.

BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A 1044 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE S
ACROSS INTERIOR B.C. ON MONDAY. RISING PRESSURES OVER B.C. WILL
INCREASE THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR OF W WA STARTING MONDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
OK WITH AREAS OF SCA WINDS EXTENDING FROM THE N INLAND WATERS DOWN
THROUGH PUGET SOUND.

AS THE B.C. SURFACE HIGH MOVES SE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS W WA
WILL SHIFT MORE E-NE AND STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW MODERATE TO STRONG E-NE FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE N
INLAND WATERS...EXTENDING OUT THROUGH THE STRAIT AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. THE FLOW COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH
GALE FORCE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KSEW 011645
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
845 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING
ANOTHER DAY OF FAIR WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY. A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
FOR AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH A FEW
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS WITH A LITTLE RAIN AT THE COAST AND
A CHANCE OF RAIN FARTHER INLAND.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORHTEAST
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AS A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL HELP DRY THE LOW LEVELS OUT AND
CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE LATER IN THE DAY. THERE WILL ALSO
BE SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS DURING THE DAY... ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH INTERIOR.

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BRING DRY AND MAINLY
SUNNY WEATHER TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT
TIMES. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND
MOVES TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE INLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH WEST OR NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON IN ITS WAKE.

A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE MOST
RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW THIS. HOWEVER
THE ECMWF AND EARLIER RUNS OF THE OTHER MODELS INDICATED DRY
WEATHER. I WILL STAND PAT WITH THE DRY FORECAST FOR NOW...AND
HOPEFULLY THE MODEL RUNS TODAY WILL HELP US PIN THIS DOWN.

ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR MORE
DRY WEATHER.   MCDONNAL

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 140W
WILL MAINTAIN DRY NW FLOW ACROSS W WA THROUGH 00Z. AREAS OF HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD S THROUGH 00Z AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. GOOD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL B.C. COAST AT 16Z
WILL MOVE SE OVER W WA BY 06Z. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN SPREADING
OVER W WA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AFTER 00Z WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND
BKN050 WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER THE N AFTER 03Z. LOWERING CIGS AND
AREAS OF RAIN WILL SPREAD S WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE 06Z-15Z.

KSEA...UNRESTRICTED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 03Z WITH JUST SOME HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AT TIMES. CIGS BKN050-100 INCREASING AFTER 03Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE S-SW 4-7 KT. KAM

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER W WA
TODAY...EMBEDDED IN A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS BETWEEN A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE AND ANOTHER CENTERED OVER MT. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ACROSS W WA WILL REMAIN WEAK...SO WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL B.C. COAST THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE SE ACROSS W WA TONIGHT. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE MODERATE N WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
THE MORNING UPDATE.

BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A 1044 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE S
ACROSS INTERIOR B.C. ON MONDAY. RISING PRESSURES OVER B.C. WILL
INCREASE THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR OF W WA STARTING MONDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
OK WITH AREAS OF SCA WINDS EXTENDING FROM THE N INLAND WATERS DOWN
THROUGH PUGET SOUND.

AS THE B.C. SURFACE HIGH MOVES SE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS W WA
WILL SHIFT MORE E-NE AND STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW MODERATE TO STRONG E-NE FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE N
INLAND WATERS...EXTENDING OUT THROUGH THE STRAIT AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. THE FLOW COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH
GALE FORCE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KOTX 011156
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
356 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry, seasonal conditions will be found across the region today. A
weather system will pass through tonight into early Tuesday with
the potential for light snow, especially for the Idaho Panhandle,
along with breezy conditions. Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of
next week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow
for the end of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
For Today...A dry forecast is expected today as the region
will be in between weather systems. Another low pressure system
moving down out of BC will advect upper level moisture for an
increase in mainly high level clouds through the day. Temperatures
a couple of degrees warmer than on Saturday. Winds will be light
out of the east.

Tonight through Monday night...The next upper level low currently
moving through the Gulf of Alaska will spin off a weaker wave of
energy that will drop south along the coast...while the main upper
low drops south along the Continental Divide. The weaker wave will
tap into some Pacific moisture and result in a chance for short
period of snow along the Cascades crest. Snow accumulations of up
to an inch will be possible.

Better dynamics but not nearly as much moisture will track south
along the Idaho/Montana border Monday and Monday evening with the
stronger wave. The best chance for precipitation will be along and
just west of the border but light precipitation will be possible
as far west as Colville south to about Walla Walla. With little
moisture to work with precipitation amounts will be light. Snow
levels will be down to valley floors. Snow amounts will vary.
Accumulations from a trace to a couple of tenths of snow for the
West Plains and the Palouse...including the Spokane-Coeur D`Alene
metro area...Colville and possibly Pullman. The Panhandle
mountains will see around an inch or two with 2-3 inches possible
for the highest terrain. As you can see this is far from a big
snow producer.

Cold advection will cool temperatures down to the cool side of
normal for Monday. Minimum temperatures will drop down into the
mid teens to lower lower 20s. The pressure gradient will tighten
from the north Monday and Monday night. 850Mb winds will increase
to 20-30kts and with the cold air advection these winds will have
the potential to mix down to the surface through the afternoon and
evening hours. Winds will increase down the Okanogan valley and
then spill out into the Columbia basin. North winds of 10-20 mph
with gusts 25-30 mph. The stronger winds will result in wind
chills to drop down into the lower teens for the Okanogan valley.
Tobin

Tuesday through Wednesday night...An upper level trough will move
off to the southeast Tuesday with a few lingering snow showers for
the Idaho panhandle. Behind this system the region will be under
cooler northerly flow and daytime temperatures will remain below
seasonal normals. Northerly winds will be channeled down the
Okanogan valley and Purcell trench but the surface pressure
gradient will quickly relax. Clearing skies and light winds
overnight Tuesday will allow maximum efficiency of radiational
cooling. Min temperatures in the teens will be quite common across
the Inland Northwest in the dry continental airmass. By Wednesday
night we may see some clouds move over the region as a weak
shortwave moves through the area. Flow aloft will also shift from
north to northwest with more of a marine influence. This will
allow overnight temperatures to moderate somewhat while remaining
on the cool side of climo.

Thursday through Saturday...the ridge of high pressure will remain
over the region with dry conditions and more seasonal temperatures
prevailing. Medium range models diverge on the track of the next
shortwave trough that could bring some precip to the forecast area
Thursday night into Friday. Latest run of the GFS brings some
moisture to NE WA and the Idaho panhandle while the ECMWF keeps it
well to our north. For now we will keep dry conditions in the
forecast. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected at all TAF sites through
Monday 12z. High clouds will be on the increase this morning from
the north...then thicken tonight. Some light snow is possible over
the north Cascades tonight but should not effect any of the TAF
sites. Winds will be light out of the northeast-east
today...becoming southerly overnight. Tobin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        43  27  41  20  33  17 /   0   0  30  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  45  25  41  18  33  14 /   0   0  60  30  10   0
Pullman        43  28  41  22  33  17 /   0   0  30  20  10   0
Lewiston       46  29  44  26  38  20 /   0   0  30  20  10   0
Colville       47  27  45  23  37  16 /   0  10  30  20  10   0
Sandpoint      40  24  38  17  31  12 /   0  10  60  70  10   0
Kellogg        41  26  38  18  29  13 /   0   0  60  70  10   0
Moses Lake     49  30  50  25  42  20 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      50  32  50  27  42  21 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Omak           50  29  50  23  43  19 /   0  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 011156
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
356 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry, seasonal conditions will be found across the region today. A
weather system will pass through tonight into early Tuesday with
the potential for light snow, especially for the Idaho Panhandle,
along with breezy conditions. Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of
next week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow
for the end of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
For Today...A dry forecast is expected today as the region
will be in between weather systems. Another low pressure system
moving down out of BC will advect upper level moisture for an
increase in mainly high level clouds through the day. Temperatures
a couple of degrees warmer than on Saturday. Winds will be light
out of the east.

Tonight through Monday night...The next upper level low currently
moving through the Gulf of Alaska will spin off a weaker wave of
energy that will drop south along the coast...while the main upper
low drops south along the Continental Divide. The weaker wave will
tap into some Pacific moisture and result in a chance for short
period of snow along the Cascades crest. Snow accumulations of up
to an inch will be possible.

Better dynamics but not nearly as much moisture will track south
along the Idaho/Montana border Monday and Monday evening with the
stronger wave. The best chance for precipitation will be along and
just west of the border but light precipitation will be possible
as far west as Colville south to about Walla Walla. With little
moisture to work with precipitation amounts will be light. Snow
levels will be down to valley floors. Snow amounts will vary.
Accumulations from a trace to a couple of tenths of snow for the
West Plains and the Palouse...including the Spokane-Coeur D`Alene
metro area...Colville and possibly Pullman. The Panhandle
mountains will see around an inch or two with 2-3 inches possible
for the highest terrain. As you can see this is far from a big
snow producer.

Cold advection will cool temperatures down to the cool side of
normal for Monday. Minimum temperatures will drop down into the
mid teens to lower lower 20s. The pressure gradient will tighten
from the north Monday and Monday night. 850Mb winds will increase
to 20-30kts and with the cold air advection these winds will have
the potential to mix down to the surface through the afternoon and
evening hours. Winds will increase down the Okanogan valley and
then spill out into the Columbia basin. North winds of 10-20 mph
with gusts 25-30 mph. The stronger winds will result in wind
chills to drop down into the lower teens for the Okanogan valley.
Tobin

Tuesday through Wednesday night...An upper level trough will move
off to the southeast Tuesday with a few lingering snow showers for
the Idaho panhandle. Behind this system the region will be under
cooler northerly flow and daytime temperatures will remain below
seasonal normals. Northerly winds will be channeled down the
Okanogan valley and Purcell trench but the surface pressure
gradient will quickly relax. Clearing skies and light winds
overnight Tuesday will allow maximum efficiency of radiational
cooling. Min temperatures in the teens will be quite common across
the Inland Northwest in the dry continental airmass. By Wednesday
night we may see some clouds move over the region as a weak
shortwave moves through the area. Flow aloft will also shift from
north to northwest with more of a marine influence. This will
allow overnight temperatures to moderate somewhat while remaining
on the cool side of climo.

Thursday through Saturday...the ridge of high pressure will remain
over the region with dry conditions and more seasonal temperatures
prevailing. Medium range models diverge on the track of the next
shortwave trough that could bring some precip to the forecast area
Thursday night into Friday. Latest run of the GFS brings some
moisture to NE WA and the Idaho panhandle while the ECMWF keeps it
well to our north. For now we will keep dry conditions in the
forecast. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected at all TAF sites through
Monday 12z. High clouds will be on the increase this morning from
the north...then thicken tonight. Some light snow is possible over
the north Cascades tonight but should not effect any of the TAF
sites. Winds will be light out of the northeast-east
today...becoming southerly overnight. Tobin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        43  27  41  20  33  17 /   0   0  30  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  45  25  41  18  33  14 /   0   0  60  30  10   0
Pullman        43  28  41  22  33  17 /   0   0  30  20  10   0
Lewiston       46  29  44  26  38  20 /   0   0  30  20  10   0
Colville       47  27  45  23  37  16 /   0  10  30  20  10   0
Sandpoint      40  24  38  17  31  12 /   0  10  60  70  10   0
Kellogg        41  26  38  18  29  13 /   0   0  60  70  10   0
Moses Lake     49  30  50  25  42  20 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      50  32  50  27  42  21 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Omak           50  29  50  23  43  19 /   0  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 011113
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING
ANOTHER DAY OF FAIR WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY. A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
FOR AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
OFFSHORE ALONG 140W. A WEAK SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT
SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO WESTERN WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT. THE TEMPERATURES
AT 2 AM RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS OF
THE SOUTH PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTH INTERIOR TO 40 DEGREES IN
SEATTLE.

THE UPPER FLOW WILL BACK TO NORTHWEST TODAY AS A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER DRY DAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS...BUT
THE COAST WILL PROBABLY HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL DIG ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT. IT WILL
PRODUCE A LITTLE PRECIPITATION AT THE COAST...WITH A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION INLAND MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT. EVEN THE COAST AND OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS WILL GET ONLY UP
TO 0.25 INCH...WITH JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THE INTERIOR AND SOME
AREAS REMAINING DRY. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE AROUND 2500 FT.

AFTER SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION ONCE AGAIN AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST CANADA
TOO...PRODUCING NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THE NORTH INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL HAVE WINDY
CONDITIONS DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE FRASER RIVER.
MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOVES TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH WEST OR NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
IN ITS WAKE.

A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE MOST
RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW THIS. HOWEVER
THE ECMWF AND EARLIER RUNS OF THE OTHER MODELS INDICATED DRY
WEATHER. I WILL STAND PAT WITH THE DRY FORECAST FOR NOW...AND
HOPEFULLY THE MODEL RUNS TODAY WILL HELP US PIN THIS DOWN.

ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR MORE
DRY WEATHER.   MCDONNAL

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH JUST SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK
SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN WA TONIGHT FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT
RAIN MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH
SKIES CLEARING MONDAY AFTERNOON. 33

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 33

&&

.MARINE...WEAK LOW PRES WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY FOR MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH
BRIEF NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AR LIKELY. NORTH TO NE FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER INTERIOR B.C. THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS MAY SEE GALES WITH FRASER RIVER OUTFLOW. WINDS WILL
EASE TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KPQR 011025
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
225 AM PST SUN MAR  1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS OUT NEAR 140W WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE THIS WEEK...PRODUCING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH IN THIS
FLOW TODAY WITH MAINLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
TONIGHT. ITS TRACK WILL GIVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
COASTAL WATERS AND THE COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
AND SHOWERS DRAMATICALLY DECREASE MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH.
THEN IT LOOKS PRETTY DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
AROUND THURSDAY. THE MAIN EFFECT AT THIS POINT WILL BE TO TURN THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW ONSHORE AND PERHAPS GIVE A FEW CLOUDS TO THE AREA. ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING PRETTY IFFY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW OF SATURDAY WAS DECREASING
THIS MORNING AS THE NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF AN
UPPER LOW IN CALIFORNIA CONTINUED TO MOVE AWAY. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW
LOWERED DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA...AND HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL
CLOSE TO FREEZING IN MUCH OF THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFFECTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
WEEK WILL BE AN UPPER RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS OUT NEAR 140W. THIS IS
PRODUCING A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY
WITH MAINLY SOME HIGHER CLOUDS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE WILL
DROP SOUTH ALONG THE B.C. COAST TODAY AND MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE
WASHINGTON AND OREGON COASTS TONIGHT. THE TRACK WILL GIVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE COASTAL AREAS...WITH
DECREASING CHANCES INLAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOME COLDER AIR WITH
IT FOR SOME SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY THE FOOTHILLS AND
COAST RANGE...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT AS YOU GO EASTWARD AND
IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED.

THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA PRETTY EARLY MONDAY FOR
DRAMATICALLY DECREASING SHOWERS AND FOR DECREASING CLOUDS. IT THEN
LOOKS DRY INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH MAINLY A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS AT
TIMES AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OR TWO MOVES THROUGH.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW MARCH COMING IN LIKE A LAMB FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE MEAN
UPPER RIDGE POSITION LINGERS WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS
WINTER...OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD
KEEP THE PACIFIC JET STREAM WELL TO OUR NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY
CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. REMOVED MENTION OF ANY RAIN
FROM THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE VALLEYS...AS MOST GUIDANCE
PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH MAY LAST
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND WITH VFR THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE
POCKETS OF FOG...MAINLY IN COWLITZ VALLEY AND COASTAL AREAS. WEAK
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL REMAIN VFR...BUT CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 02Z
ALONG THE COAST...AND INLAND AFTER 05Z. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW TONIGHT
WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND OBSCURED HIGHER TERRAIN.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH INCREASING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEE INCREASING MVFR CIGS AFTER 05Z
AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM NW.    ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
PLAYER THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS
REGION TONIGHT INTO MON AM. NOT A LOT OF WIND EXPECTED WITH
FRONT...BUT ENOUGH TO POP 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS...MAINLY OFF CENTRAL OREGON COAST. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA. SEAS MOSTLY HOLDING AT 4 TO 6 FT.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE WATERS THU AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20 KT. ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR LATE TONIGHT TO MON AM
    ON OUTER COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN CASCADE HEAD AND FLORENCE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 011025
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
225 AM PST SUN MAR  1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS OUT NEAR 140W WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE THIS WEEK...PRODUCING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH IN THIS
FLOW TODAY WITH MAINLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
TONIGHT. ITS TRACK WILL GIVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
COASTAL WATERS AND THE COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
AND SHOWERS DRAMATICALLY DECREASE MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH.
THEN IT LOOKS PRETTY DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
AROUND THURSDAY. THE MAIN EFFECT AT THIS POINT WILL BE TO TURN THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW ONSHORE AND PERHAPS GIVE A FEW CLOUDS TO THE AREA. ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING PRETTY IFFY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW OF SATURDAY WAS DECREASING
THIS MORNING AS THE NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF AN
UPPER LOW IN CALIFORNIA CONTINUED TO MOVE AWAY. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW
LOWERED DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA...AND HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL
CLOSE TO FREEZING IN MUCH OF THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFFECTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
WEEK WILL BE AN UPPER RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS OUT NEAR 140W. THIS IS
PRODUCING A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY
WITH MAINLY SOME HIGHER CLOUDS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE WILL
DROP SOUTH ALONG THE B.C. COAST TODAY AND MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE
WASHINGTON AND OREGON COASTS TONIGHT. THE TRACK WILL GIVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE COASTAL AREAS...WITH
DECREASING CHANCES INLAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOME COLDER AIR WITH
IT FOR SOME SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY THE FOOTHILLS AND
COAST RANGE...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT AS YOU GO EASTWARD AND
IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED.

THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA PRETTY EARLY MONDAY FOR
DRAMATICALLY DECREASING SHOWERS AND FOR DECREASING CLOUDS. IT THEN
LOOKS DRY INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH MAINLY A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS AT
TIMES AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OR TWO MOVES THROUGH.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW MARCH COMING IN LIKE A LAMB FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE MEAN
UPPER RIDGE POSITION LINGERS WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS
WINTER...OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD
KEEP THE PACIFIC JET STREAM WELL TO OUR NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY
CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. REMOVED MENTION OF ANY RAIN
FROM THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE VALLEYS...AS MOST GUIDANCE
PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH MAY LAST
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND WITH VFR THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE
POCKETS OF FOG...MAINLY IN COWLITZ VALLEY AND COASTAL AREAS. WEAK
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL REMAIN VFR...BUT CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 02Z
ALONG THE COAST...AND INLAND AFTER 05Z. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW TONIGHT
WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND OBSCURED HIGHER TERRAIN.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH INCREASING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEE INCREASING MVFR CIGS AFTER 05Z
AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM NW.    ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
PLAYER THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS
REGION TONIGHT INTO MON AM. NOT A LOT OF WIND EXPECTED WITH
FRONT...BUT ENOUGH TO POP 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS...MAINLY OFF CENTRAL OREGON COAST. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA. SEAS MOSTLY HOLDING AT 4 TO 6 FT.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE WATERS THU AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20 KT. ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR LATE TONIGHT TO MON AM
    ON OUTER COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN CASCADE HEAD AND FLORENCE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 011019
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
219 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry, seasonal conditions will be found across the region today. A
weather system will pass through tonight into early Tuesday with
the potential for light snow, especially for the Idaho Panhandle,
along with breezy conditions. Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of
next week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow
for the end of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
For Today...A dry forecast is expected today as the region
will be in between weather systems. Another low pressure system
moving down out of BC will advect upper level moisture for an
increase in mainly high level clouds through the day. Temperatures
a couple of degrees warmer than on Saturday. Winds will be light
out of the east.

Tonight through Monday night...The next upper level low currently
moving through the Gulf of Alaska will spin off a weaker wave of
energy that will drop south along the coast...while the main upper
low drops south along the Continental Divide. The weaker wave will
tap into some Pacific moisture and result in a chance for short
period of snow along the Cascades crest. Snow accumulations of up
to an inch will be possible.

Better dynamics but not nearly as much moisture will track south
along the Idaho/Montana border Monday and Monday evening with the
stronger wave. The best chance for precipitation will be along and
just west of the border but light precipitation will be possible
as far west as Colville south to about Walla Walla. With little
moisture to work with precipitation amounts will be light. Snow
levels will be down to valley floors. Snow amounts will vary.
Accumulations from a trace to a couple of tenths of snow for the
West Plains and the Palouse...including the Spokane-Coeur D`Alene
metro area...Colville and possibly Pullman. The Panhandle
mountains will see around an inch or two with 2-3 inches possible
for the highest terrain. As you can see this is far from a big
snow producer.

Cold advection will cool temperatures down to the cool side of
normal for Monday. Minimum temperatures will drop down into the
mid teens to lower lower 20s. The pressure gradient will tighten
from the north Monday and Monday night. 850Mb winds will increase
to 20-30kts and with the cold air advection these winds will have
the potential to mix down to the surface through the afternoon and
evening hours. Winds will increase down the Okanogan valley and
then spill out into the Columbia basin. North winds of 10-20 mph
with gusts 25-30 mph. The stronger winds will result in wind
chills to drop down into the lower teens for the Okanogan valley.
Tobin

Tuesday through Wednesday night...An upper level trough will move
off to the southeast Tuesday with a few lingering snow showers for
the Idaho panhandle. Behind this system the region will be under
cooler northerly flow and daytime temperatures will remain below
seasonal normals. Northerly winds will be channeled down the
Okanogan valley and Purcell trench but the surface pressure
gradient will quickly relax. Clearing skies and light winds
overnight Tuesday will allow maximum efficiency of radiational
cooling. Min temperatures in the teens will be quite common across
the Inland Northwest in the dry continental airmass. By Wednesday
night we may see some clouds move over the region as a weak
shortwave moves through the area. Flow aloft will also shift from
north to northwest with more of a marine influence. This will
allow overnight temperatures to moderate somewhat while remaining
on the cool side of climo.

Thursday through Saturday...the ridge of high pressure will remain
over the region with dry conditions and more seasonal temperatures
prevailing. Medium range models diverge on the track of the next
shortwave trough that could bring some precip to the forecast area
Thursday night into Friday. Latest run of the GFS brings some
moisture to NE WA and the Idaho panhandle while the ECMWF keeps it
well to our north. For now we will keep dry conditions in the
forecast. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected at all TAF sites through
Sunday. Thin high clouds will move in from the north overnight and
lower slightly and thicken some by Sunday afternoon.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        43  27  41  20  33  17 /   0   0  30  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  45  25  41  18  33  14 /   0   0  60  30  10   0
Pullman        43  28  41  22  33  17 /   0   0  30  20  10   0
Lewiston       46  29  44  26  38  20 /   0   0  30  20  10   0
Colville       47  27  45  23  37  16 /   0  10  30  20  10   0
Sandpoint      40  24  38  17  31  12 /   0  10  60  70  10   0
Kellogg        41  26  38  18  29  13 /   0   0  60  70  10   0
Moses Lake     49  30  50  25  42  20 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      50  32  50  27  42  21 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Omak           50  29  50  23  43  19 /   0  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 011019
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
219 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry, seasonal conditions will be found across the region today. A
weather system will pass through tonight into early Tuesday with
the potential for light snow, especially for the Idaho Panhandle,
along with breezy conditions. Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of
next week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow
for the end of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
For Today...A dry forecast is expected today as the region
will be in between weather systems. Another low pressure system
moving down out of BC will advect upper level moisture for an
increase in mainly high level clouds through the day. Temperatures
a couple of degrees warmer than on Saturday. Winds will be light
out of the east.

Tonight through Monday night...The next upper level low currently
moving through the Gulf of Alaska will spin off a weaker wave of
energy that will drop south along the coast...while the main upper
low drops south along the Continental Divide. The weaker wave will
tap into some Pacific moisture and result in a chance for short
period of snow along the Cascades crest. Snow accumulations of up
to an inch will be possible.

Better dynamics but not nearly as much moisture will track south
along the Idaho/Montana border Monday and Monday evening with the
stronger wave. The best chance for precipitation will be along and
just west of the border but light precipitation will be possible
as far west as Colville south to about Walla Walla. With little
moisture to work with precipitation amounts will be light. Snow
levels will be down to valley floors. Snow amounts will vary.
Accumulations from a trace to a couple of tenths of snow for the
West Plains and the Palouse...including the Spokane-Coeur D`Alene
metro area...Colville and possibly Pullman. The Panhandle
mountains will see around an inch or two with 2-3 inches possible
for the highest terrain. As you can see this is far from a big
snow producer.

Cold advection will cool temperatures down to the cool side of
normal for Monday. Minimum temperatures will drop down into the
mid teens to lower lower 20s. The pressure gradient will tighten
from the north Monday and Monday night. 850Mb winds will increase
to 20-30kts and with the cold air advection these winds will have
the potential to mix down to the surface through the afternoon and
evening hours. Winds will increase down the Okanogan valley and
then spill out into the Columbia basin. North winds of 10-20 mph
with gusts 25-30 mph. The stronger winds will result in wind
chills to drop down into the lower teens for the Okanogan valley.
Tobin

Tuesday through Wednesday night...An upper level trough will move
off to the southeast Tuesday with a few lingering snow showers for
the Idaho panhandle. Behind this system the region will be under
cooler northerly flow and daytime temperatures will remain below
seasonal normals. Northerly winds will be channeled down the
Okanogan valley and Purcell trench but the surface pressure
gradient will quickly relax. Clearing skies and light winds
overnight Tuesday will allow maximum efficiency of radiational
cooling. Min temperatures in the teens will be quite common across
the Inland Northwest in the dry continental airmass. By Wednesday
night we may see some clouds move over the region as a weak
shortwave moves through the area. Flow aloft will also shift from
north to northwest with more of a marine influence. This will
allow overnight temperatures to moderate somewhat while remaining
on the cool side of climo.

Thursday through Saturday...the ridge of high pressure will remain
over the region with dry conditions and more seasonal temperatures
prevailing. Medium range models diverge on the track of the next
shortwave trough that could bring some precip to the forecast area
Thursday night into Friday. Latest run of the GFS brings some
moisture to NE WA and the Idaho panhandle while the ECMWF keeps it
well to our north. For now we will keep dry conditions in the
forecast. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected at all TAF sites through
Sunday. Thin high clouds will move in from the north overnight and
lower slightly and thicken some by Sunday afternoon.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        43  27  41  20  33  17 /   0   0  30  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  45  25  41  18  33  14 /   0   0  60  30  10   0
Pullman        43  28  41  22  33  17 /   0   0  30  20  10   0
Lewiston       46  29  44  26  38  20 /   0   0  30  20  10   0
Colville       47  27  45  23  37  16 /   0  10  30  20  10   0
Sandpoint      40  24  38  17  31  12 /   0  10  60  70  10   0
Kellogg        41  26  38  18  29  13 /   0   0  60  70  10   0
Moses Lake     49  30  50  25  42  20 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      50  32  50  27  42  21 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Omak           50  29  50  23  43  19 /   0  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 011019
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
219 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry, seasonal conditions will be found across the region today. A
weather system will pass through tonight into early Tuesday with
the potential for light snow, especially for the Idaho Panhandle,
along with breezy conditions. Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of
next week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow
for the end of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
For Today...A dry forecast is expected today as the region
will be in between weather systems. Another low pressure system
moving down out of BC will advect upper level moisture for an
increase in mainly high level clouds through the day. Temperatures
a couple of degrees warmer than on Saturday. Winds will be light
out of the east.

Tonight through Monday night...The next upper level low currently
moving through the Gulf of Alaska will spin off a weaker wave of
energy that will drop south along the coast...while the main upper
low drops south along the Continental Divide. The weaker wave will
tap into some Pacific moisture and result in a chance for short
period of snow along the Cascades crest. Snow accumulations of up
to an inch will be possible.

Better dynamics but not nearly as much moisture will track south
along the Idaho/Montana border Monday and Monday evening with the
stronger wave. The best chance for precipitation will be along and
just west of the border but light precipitation will be possible
as far west as Colville south to about Walla Walla. With little
moisture to work with precipitation amounts will be light. Snow
levels will be down to valley floors. Snow amounts will vary.
Accumulations from a trace to a couple of tenths of snow for the
West Plains and the Palouse...including the Spokane-Coeur D`Alene
metro area...Colville and possibly Pullman. The Panhandle
mountains will see around an inch or two with 2-3 inches possible
for the highest terrain. As you can see this is far from a big
snow producer.

Cold advection will cool temperatures down to the cool side of
normal for Monday. Minimum temperatures will drop down into the
mid teens to lower lower 20s. The pressure gradient will tighten
from the north Monday and Monday night. 850Mb winds will increase
to 20-30kts and with the cold air advection these winds will have
the potential to mix down to the surface through the afternoon and
evening hours. Winds will increase down the Okanogan valley and
then spill out into the Columbia basin. North winds of 10-20 mph
with gusts 25-30 mph. The stronger winds will result in wind
chills to drop down into the lower teens for the Okanogan valley.
Tobin

Tuesday through Wednesday night...An upper level trough will move
off to the southeast Tuesday with a few lingering snow showers for
the Idaho panhandle. Behind this system the region will be under
cooler northerly flow and daytime temperatures will remain below
seasonal normals. Northerly winds will be channeled down the
Okanogan valley and Purcell trench but the surface pressure
gradient will quickly relax. Clearing skies and light winds
overnight Tuesday will allow maximum efficiency of radiational
cooling. Min temperatures in the teens will be quite common across
the Inland Northwest in the dry continental airmass. By Wednesday
night we may see some clouds move over the region as a weak
shortwave moves through the area. Flow aloft will also shift from
north to northwest with more of a marine influence. This will
allow overnight temperatures to moderate somewhat while remaining
on the cool side of climo.

Thursday through Saturday...the ridge of high pressure will remain
over the region with dry conditions and more seasonal temperatures
prevailing. Medium range models diverge on the track of the next
shortwave trough that could bring some precip to the forecast area
Thursday night into Friday. Latest run of the GFS brings some
moisture to NE WA and the Idaho panhandle while the ECMWF keeps it
well to our north. For now we will keep dry conditions in the
forecast. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected at all TAF sites through
Sunday. Thin high clouds will move in from the north overnight and
lower slightly and thicken some by Sunday afternoon.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        43  27  41  20  33  17 /   0   0  30  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  45  25  41  18  33  14 /   0   0  60  30  10   0
Pullman        43  28  41  22  33  17 /   0   0  30  20  10   0
Lewiston       46  29  44  26  38  20 /   0   0  30  20  10   0
Colville       47  27  45  23  37  16 /   0  10  30  20  10   0
Sandpoint      40  24  38  17  31  12 /   0  10  60  70  10   0
Kellogg        41  26  38  18  29  13 /   0   0  60  70  10   0
Moses Lake     49  30  50  25  42  20 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      50  32  50  27  42  21 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Omak           50  29  50  23  43  19 /   0  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 011019
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
219 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry, seasonal conditions will be found across the region today. A
weather system will pass through tonight into early Tuesday with
the potential for light snow, especially for the Idaho Panhandle,
along with breezy conditions. Much colder air moves in behind this
system, with temperatures well below average for the middle of
next week. A dry period, with moderating temperature will follow
for the end of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
For Today...A dry forecast is expected today as the region
will be in between weather systems. Another low pressure system
moving down out of BC will advect upper level moisture for an
increase in mainly high level clouds through the day. Temperatures
a couple of degrees warmer than on Saturday. Winds will be light
out of the east.

Tonight through Monday night...The next upper level low currently
moving through the Gulf of Alaska will spin off a weaker wave of
energy that will drop south along the coast...while the main upper
low drops south along the Continental Divide. The weaker wave will
tap into some Pacific moisture and result in a chance for short
period of snow along the Cascades crest. Snow accumulations of up
to an inch will be possible.

Better dynamics but not nearly as much moisture will track south
along the Idaho/Montana border Monday and Monday evening with the
stronger wave. The best chance for precipitation will be along and
just west of the border but light precipitation will be possible
as far west as Colville south to about Walla Walla. With little
moisture to work with precipitation amounts will be light. Snow
levels will be down to valley floors. Snow amounts will vary.
Accumulations from a trace to a couple of tenths of snow for the
West Plains and the Palouse...including the Spokane-Coeur D`Alene
metro area...Colville and possibly Pullman. The Panhandle
mountains will see around an inch or two with 2-3 inches possible
for the highest terrain. As you can see this is far from a big
snow producer.

Cold advection will cool temperatures down to the cool side of
normal for Monday. Minimum temperatures will drop down into the
mid teens to lower lower 20s. The pressure gradient will tighten
from the north Monday and Monday night. 850Mb winds will increase
to 20-30kts and with the cold air advection these winds will have
the potential to mix down to the surface through the afternoon and
evening hours. Winds will increase down the Okanogan valley and
then spill out into the Columbia basin. North winds of 10-20 mph
with gusts 25-30 mph. The stronger winds will result in wind
chills to drop down into the lower teens for the Okanogan valley.
Tobin

Tuesday through Wednesday night...An upper level trough will move
off to the southeast Tuesday with a few lingering snow showers for
the Idaho panhandle. Behind this system the region will be under
cooler northerly flow and daytime temperatures will remain below
seasonal normals. Northerly winds will be channeled down the
Okanogan valley and Purcell trench but the surface pressure
gradient will quickly relax. Clearing skies and light winds
overnight Tuesday will allow maximum efficiency of radiational
cooling. Min temperatures in the teens will be quite common across
the Inland Northwest in the dry continental airmass. By Wednesday
night we may see some clouds move over the region as a weak
shortwave moves through the area. Flow aloft will also shift from
north to northwest with more of a marine influence. This will
allow overnight temperatures to moderate somewhat while remaining
on the cool side of climo.

Thursday through Saturday...the ridge of high pressure will remain
over the region with dry conditions and more seasonal temperatures
prevailing. Medium range models diverge on the track of the next
shortwave trough that could bring some precip to the forecast area
Thursday night into Friday. Latest run of the GFS brings some
moisture to NE WA and the Idaho panhandle while the ECMWF keeps it
well to our north. For now we will keep dry conditions in the
forecast. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected at all TAF sites through
Sunday. Thin high clouds will move in from the north overnight and
lower slightly and thicken some by Sunday afternoon.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        43  27  41  20  33  17 /   0   0  30  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  45  25  41  18  33  14 /   0   0  60  30  10   0
Pullman        43  28  41  22  33  17 /   0   0  30  20  10   0
Lewiston       46  29  44  26  38  20 /   0   0  30  20  10   0
Colville       47  27  45  23  37  16 /   0  10  30  20  10   0
Sandpoint      40  24  38  17  31  12 /   0  10  60  70  10   0
Kellogg        41  26  38  18  29  13 /   0   0  60  70  10   0
Moses Lake     49  30  50  25  42  20 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      50  32  50  27  42  21 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Omak           50  29  50  23  43  19 /   0  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 010545
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
945 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry, seasonal conditions will found across the Inland Northwest
this weekend. A weather system will pass through Monday into early
Tuesday with the potential for light snow, especially for the
Idaho Panhandle, with breezy conditions. Much colder air moves in
behind this system, with temperatures well below average for the
middle of next week. A dry period, with moderating temperature
will follow for the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday night: A dry continental air mass will
reside over the region delivering mostly clear skies and seasonal
temperatures. The region remains under broad northwest flow aloft
with one disturbance well to the south and another tracking across
through the Gulf of Alaska. Consequently, shortwave ridging will
be the dominate weather feature through the remainder of the
weekend. Winds are currently at their peak and will continue to
wane this evening and overnight. Dew points are extremely dry
with many locations reporting teens to single digits. As winds
calm overnight, look for temperatures to rapidly cool with
readings Sunday morning into the teens to lower 20s. Without
sufficient mixing (i.e. winds) returning Sunday, temperatures
will remain cool but should recover back into the 40s...very close
to March 1st normals. The aforementioned disturbance in the Gulf
of AK will track into Northwestern WA late Sunday night with the
potential for light snow reaching the Cascade Crest by early
Monday morning. Amounts through this period will be light with the
potential for a few tenths after midnight but before sunrise. /sb

Monday through Saturday: The next system drops across the Pacific
Northwest early in the week, with some snow threat and another
shot of cold air, before milder and relatively drier conditions
return.  Between Monday and Tuesday night a couple mid-level
shortwave dives across western Canada and the northwest United
States. Models have been consistently in disagreement over the
past few days over the evolution of the second wave, however this
morning the wetter ECMWF trended toward the other drier guidance.
One shortwave will be sliding south along the WA/OR coastline
early Monday, bringing some shower chances to the Cascades early.
A second shortwave slips by northeast WA/north ID and MT Monday
afternoon into Monday night. This will ramp up precipitation
chances across the eastern third of WA and north ID, especially
during the afternoon and evening. Overnight into Tuesday drier air
comes in on the a north-northwest flow, with a weakening surface
trough/deformation axis. There will be a lingering shower threat
across the central Panhandle and Camas Prairie, as well as about
the mtns of northeast WA and north ID, but by this time the threat
of significant precipitation will be ending.

As for precipitation-type, snow looks predominant. However during
the afternoon hours surface temperatures warming above freezing
will limit the potential for accumulation outside of the
mountains. Overall it still looks like about 1 to 2 inches in the
eastern mountains and less than an inch in the valleys, if
anything accumulates at all in the valleys that is.

Behind the precipitation threat comes increased winds and that
next push of cold air. In general, however, look for increasing
northerly winds between Monday afternoon and Tuesday. The speeds
abate through the Tuesday night. Tuesday afternoon temperatures
are expected to be below normal by 5 to 10 degrees, followed by
lows dropping some 10 to 15 degrees below normal Tuesday night in
an atmosphere more conducive to good rational cooling (i.e. dry,
with few clouds and lighter winds). This means lows in the singles
digits and teens Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

Between Wednesday and Saturday the rebounded ridge is eventually
dampened again by another shortwave trough moving in from the
west. The primary wave stays north of the Canadian border, but
some weaker ripples do skim in on an the westerly flow. For the
most part the forecast is dry, but a few isolated showers cannot
be ruled out near the immediate Canadian border toward the end of
the work week. The rebounding ridge is also accompanied by some
milder air, so look for temperatures to moderate back toward
normal and, by Friday, slightly above normal again. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected at all TAF sites through
Sunday. Thin high clouds will move in from the north overnight and
lower slightly and thicken some by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        18  42  26  41  21  33 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  17  44  24  40  18  33 /   0   0   0  30  30  10
Pullman        20  44  27  40  22  33 /   0   0   0  30  20  10
Lewiston       24  47  28  44  26  38 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Colville       19  47  26  44  22  37 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Sandpoint      16  41  23  38  17  31 /   0   0  10  60  60  10
Kellogg        16  41  24  37  17  29 /   0   0   0  60  60  20
Moses Lake     23  48  29  49  26  42 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee      26  49  29  49  25  42 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           23  51  27  49  23  43 /   0   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 010545
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
945 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry, seasonal conditions will found across the Inland Northwest
this weekend. A weather system will pass through Monday into early
Tuesday with the potential for light snow, especially for the
Idaho Panhandle, with breezy conditions. Much colder air moves in
behind this system, with temperatures well below average for the
middle of next week. A dry period, with moderating temperature
will follow for the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday night: A dry continental air mass will
reside over the region delivering mostly clear skies and seasonal
temperatures. The region remains under broad northwest flow aloft
with one disturbance well to the south and another tracking across
through the Gulf of Alaska. Consequently, shortwave ridging will
be the dominate weather feature through the remainder of the
weekend. Winds are currently at their peak and will continue to
wane this evening and overnight. Dew points are extremely dry
with many locations reporting teens to single digits. As winds
calm overnight, look for temperatures to rapidly cool with
readings Sunday morning into the teens to lower 20s. Without
sufficient mixing (i.e. winds) returning Sunday, temperatures
will remain cool but should recover back into the 40s...very close
to March 1st normals. The aforementioned disturbance in the Gulf
of AK will track into Northwestern WA late Sunday night with the
potential for light snow reaching the Cascade Crest by early
Monday morning. Amounts through this period will be light with the
potential for a few tenths after midnight but before sunrise. /sb

Monday through Saturday: The next system drops across the Pacific
Northwest early in the week, with some snow threat and another
shot of cold air, before milder and relatively drier conditions
return.  Between Monday and Tuesday night a couple mid-level
shortwave dives across western Canada and the northwest United
States. Models have been consistently in disagreement over the
past few days over the evolution of the second wave, however this
morning the wetter ECMWF trended toward the other drier guidance.
One shortwave will be sliding south along the WA/OR coastline
early Monday, bringing some shower chances to the Cascades early.
A second shortwave slips by northeast WA/north ID and MT Monday
afternoon into Monday night. This will ramp up precipitation
chances across the eastern third of WA and north ID, especially
during the afternoon and evening. Overnight into Tuesday drier air
comes in on the a north-northwest flow, with a weakening surface
trough/deformation axis. There will be a lingering shower threat
across the central Panhandle and Camas Prairie, as well as about
the mtns of northeast WA and north ID, but by this time the threat
of significant precipitation will be ending.

As for precipitation-type, snow looks predominant. However during
the afternoon hours surface temperatures warming above freezing
will limit the potential for accumulation outside of the
mountains. Overall it still looks like about 1 to 2 inches in the
eastern mountains and less than an inch in the valleys, if
anything accumulates at all in the valleys that is.

Behind the precipitation threat comes increased winds and that
next push of cold air. In general, however, look for increasing
northerly winds between Monday afternoon and Tuesday. The speeds
abate through the Tuesday night. Tuesday afternoon temperatures
are expected to be below normal by 5 to 10 degrees, followed by
lows dropping some 10 to 15 degrees below normal Tuesday night in
an atmosphere more conducive to good rational cooling (i.e. dry,
with few clouds and lighter winds). This means lows in the singles
digits and teens Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

Between Wednesday and Saturday the rebounded ridge is eventually
dampened again by another shortwave trough moving in from the
west. The primary wave stays north of the Canadian border, but
some weaker ripples do skim in on an the westerly flow. For the
most part the forecast is dry, but a few isolated showers cannot
be ruled out near the immediate Canadian border toward the end of
the work week. The rebounding ridge is also accompanied by some
milder air, so look for temperatures to moderate back toward
normal and, by Friday, slightly above normal again. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected at all TAF sites through
Sunday. Thin high clouds will move in from the north overnight and
lower slightly and thicken some by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        18  42  26  41  21  33 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  17  44  24  40  18  33 /   0   0   0  30  30  10
Pullman        20  44  27  40  22  33 /   0   0   0  30  20  10
Lewiston       24  47  28  44  26  38 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Colville       19  47  26  44  22  37 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Sandpoint      16  41  23  38  17  31 /   0   0  10  60  60  10
Kellogg        16  41  24  37  17  29 /   0   0   0  60  60  20
Moses Lake     23  48  29  49  26  42 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee      26  49  29  49  25  42 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           23  51  27  49  23  43 /   0   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&





000
FXUS66 KOTX 010545
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
945 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry, seasonal conditions will found across the Inland Northwest
this weekend. A weather system will pass through Monday into early
Tuesday with the potential for light snow, especially for the
Idaho Panhandle, with breezy conditions. Much colder air moves in
behind this system, with temperatures well below average for the
middle of next week. A dry period, with moderating temperature
will follow for the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday night: A dry continental air mass will
reside over the region delivering mostly clear skies and seasonal
temperatures. The region remains under broad northwest flow aloft
with one disturbance well to the south and another tracking across
through the Gulf of Alaska. Consequently, shortwave ridging will
be the dominate weather feature through the remainder of the
weekend. Winds are currently at their peak and will continue to
wane this evening and overnight. Dew points are extremely dry
with many locations reporting teens to single digits. As winds
calm overnight, look for temperatures to rapidly cool with
readings Sunday morning into the teens to lower 20s. Without
sufficient mixing (i.e. winds) returning Sunday, temperatures
will remain cool but should recover back into the 40s...very close
to March 1st normals. The aforementioned disturbance in the Gulf
of AK will track into Northwestern WA late Sunday night with the
potential for light snow reaching the Cascade Crest by early
Monday morning. Amounts through this period will be light with the
potential for a few tenths after midnight but before sunrise. /sb

Monday through Saturday: The next system drops across the Pacific
Northwest early in the week, with some snow threat and another
shot of cold air, before milder and relatively drier conditions
return.  Between Monday and Tuesday night a couple mid-level
shortwave dives across western Canada and the northwest United
States. Models have been consistently in disagreement over the
past few days over the evolution of the second wave, however this
morning the wetter ECMWF trended toward the other drier guidance.
One shortwave will be sliding south along the WA/OR coastline
early Monday, bringing some shower chances to the Cascades early.
A second shortwave slips by northeast WA/north ID and MT Monday
afternoon into Monday night. This will ramp up precipitation
chances across the eastern third of WA and north ID, especially
during the afternoon and evening. Overnight into Tuesday drier air
comes in on the a north-northwest flow, with a weakening surface
trough/deformation axis. There will be a lingering shower threat
across the central Panhandle and Camas Prairie, as well as about
the mtns of northeast WA and north ID, but by this time the threat
of significant precipitation will be ending.

As for precipitation-type, snow looks predominant. However during
the afternoon hours surface temperatures warming above freezing
will limit the potential for accumulation outside of the
mountains. Overall it still looks like about 1 to 2 inches in the
eastern mountains and less than an inch in the valleys, if
anything accumulates at all in the valleys that is.

Behind the precipitation threat comes increased winds and that
next push of cold air. In general, however, look for increasing
northerly winds between Monday afternoon and Tuesday. The speeds
abate through the Tuesday night. Tuesday afternoon temperatures
are expected to be below normal by 5 to 10 degrees, followed by
lows dropping some 10 to 15 degrees below normal Tuesday night in
an atmosphere more conducive to good rational cooling (i.e. dry,
with few clouds and lighter winds). This means lows in the singles
digits and teens Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

Between Wednesday and Saturday the rebounded ridge is eventually
dampened again by another shortwave trough moving in from the
west. The primary wave stays north of the Canadian border, but
some weaker ripples do skim in on an the westerly flow. For the
most part the forecast is dry, but a few isolated showers cannot
be ruled out near the immediate Canadian border toward the end of
the work week. The rebounding ridge is also accompanied by some
milder air, so look for temperatures to moderate back toward
normal and, by Friday, slightly above normal again. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected at all TAF sites through
Sunday. Thin high clouds will move in from the north overnight and
lower slightly and thicken some by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        18  42  26  41  21  33 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  17  44  24  40  18  33 /   0   0   0  30  30  10
Pullman        20  44  27  40  22  33 /   0   0   0  30  20  10
Lewiston       24  47  28  44  26  38 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Colville       19  47  26  44  22  37 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Sandpoint      16  41  23  38  17  31 /   0   0  10  60  60  10
Kellogg        16  41  24  37  17  29 /   0   0   0  60  60  20
Moses Lake     23  48  29  49  26  42 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee      26  49  29  49  25  42 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           23  51  27  49  23  43 /   0   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 010545
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
945 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry, seasonal conditions will found across the Inland Northwest
this weekend. A weather system will pass through Monday into early
Tuesday with the potential for light snow, especially for the
Idaho Panhandle, with breezy conditions. Much colder air moves in
behind this system, with temperatures well below average for the
middle of next week. A dry period, with moderating temperature
will follow for the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday night: A dry continental air mass will
reside over the region delivering mostly clear skies and seasonal
temperatures. The region remains under broad northwest flow aloft
with one disturbance well to the south and another tracking across
through the Gulf of Alaska. Consequently, shortwave ridging will
be the dominate weather feature through the remainder of the
weekend. Winds are currently at their peak and will continue to
wane this evening and overnight. Dew points are extremely dry
with many locations reporting teens to single digits. As winds
calm overnight, look for temperatures to rapidly cool with
readings Sunday morning into the teens to lower 20s. Without
sufficient mixing (i.e. winds) returning Sunday, temperatures
will remain cool but should recover back into the 40s...very close
to March 1st normals. The aforementioned disturbance in the Gulf
of AK will track into Northwestern WA late Sunday night with the
potential for light snow reaching the Cascade Crest by early
Monday morning. Amounts through this period will be light with the
potential for a few tenths after midnight but before sunrise. /sb

Monday through Saturday: The next system drops across the Pacific
Northwest early in the week, with some snow threat and another
shot of cold air, before milder and relatively drier conditions
return.  Between Monday and Tuesday night a couple mid-level
shortwave dives across western Canada and the northwest United
States. Models have been consistently in disagreement over the
past few days over the evolution of the second wave, however this
morning the wetter ECMWF trended toward the other drier guidance.
One shortwave will be sliding south along the WA/OR coastline
early Monday, bringing some shower chances to the Cascades early.
A second shortwave slips by northeast WA/north ID and MT Monday
afternoon into Monday night. This will ramp up precipitation
chances across the eastern third of WA and north ID, especially
during the afternoon and evening. Overnight into Tuesday drier air
comes in on the a north-northwest flow, with a weakening surface
trough/deformation axis. There will be a lingering shower threat
across the central Panhandle and Camas Prairie, as well as about
the mtns of northeast WA and north ID, but by this time the threat
of significant precipitation will be ending.

As for precipitation-type, snow looks predominant. However during
the afternoon hours surface temperatures warming above freezing
will limit the potential for accumulation outside of the
mountains. Overall it still looks like about 1 to 2 inches in the
eastern mountains and less than an inch in the valleys, if
anything accumulates at all in the valleys that is.

Behind the precipitation threat comes increased winds and that
next push of cold air. In general, however, look for increasing
northerly winds between Monday afternoon and Tuesday. The speeds
abate through the Tuesday night. Tuesday afternoon temperatures
are expected to be below normal by 5 to 10 degrees, followed by
lows dropping some 10 to 15 degrees below normal Tuesday night in
an atmosphere more conducive to good rational cooling (i.e. dry,
with few clouds and lighter winds). This means lows in the singles
digits and teens Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

Between Wednesday and Saturday the rebounded ridge is eventually
dampened again by another shortwave trough moving in from the
west. The primary wave stays north of the Canadian border, but
some weaker ripples do skim in on an the westerly flow. For the
most part the forecast is dry, but a few isolated showers cannot
be ruled out near the immediate Canadian border toward the end of
the work week. The rebounding ridge is also accompanied by some
milder air, so look for temperatures to moderate back toward
normal and, by Friday, slightly above normal again. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions can be expected at all TAF sites through
Sunday. Thin high clouds will move in from the north overnight and
lower slightly and thicken some by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        18  42  26  41  21  33 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  17  44  24  40  18  33 /   0   0   0  30  30  10
Pullman        20  44  27  40  22  33 /   0   0   0  30  20  10
Lewiston       24  47  28  44  26  38 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Colville       19  47  26  44  22  37 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Sandpoint      16  41  23  38  17  31 /   0   0  10  60  60  10
Kellogg        16  41  24  37  17  29 /   0   0   0  60  60  20
Moses Lake     23  48  29  49  26  42 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee      26  49  29  49  25  42 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           23  51  27  49  23  43 /   0   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&





000
FXUS66 KSEW 010510
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
910 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ONE MORE
SUNNY DAY TO WESTERN WASHINGTON SUNDAY. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...STARTING TO SEE SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFT IN OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING ON THE LATEST IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT. 00Z GFS AND NAM
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO BE ALONG THE
COAST BUT CHANCES DWINDLE RAPIDLY AS YOU GO INLAND...WITH ANY PRECIP
THERE BEING PRETTY LIGHT AND SHORT LIVED. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE
WETTER SOLUTION AND THUS...AN OUTLIER. WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH
THE DRIER SOLUTIONS AND THE INHERITED FORECAST REFLECTING AN
EMPHASIS ON THE COAST AND NOT SO MUCH ON THE INTERIOR. THIS SYSTEM
DOES NOT LINGER WITH ANY CHANCES OF PRECIP APPROACHING NIL BY MONDAY
MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ONCE AGAIN RETURNS TO THE AREA. THIS
RIDGE WILL REMAIN TUESDAY AND...COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE
FLOW...WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SMR

.LONG TERM...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL WEDNESDAY. WHILE 12Z MODELS SHOWED A DRIER SOLUTION FOR
THURSDAY...18Z AND 00Z RUNS HAVE RETURNED TO THE SOLUTION OF
BRINGING A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM IN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THE CHANCE
FOR A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN. RIDGING REBUILDS THURSDAY EVENING...DRYING
THINGS OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE 30S. SMR

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH JUST SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS. 33

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT N/NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 33

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL MAINTAIN OFFSHORE FLOW
ACROSS WESTERN WA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTH TO NE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER INTERIOR B.C.
THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS MAY SEE GALES WITH FRASER RIVER OUTFLOW.
WINDS WILL EASE TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 010510
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
910 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ONE MORE
SUNNY DAY TO WESTERN WASHINGTON SUNDAY. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...STARTING TO SEE SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFT IN OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING ON THE LATEST IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT. 00Z GFS AND NAM
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO BE ALONG THE
COAST BUT CHANCES DWINDLE RAPIDLY AS YOU GO INLAND...WITH ANY PRECIP
THERE BEING PRETTY LIGHT AND SHORT LIVED. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE
WETTER SOLUTION AND THUS...AN OUTLIER. WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH
THE DRIER SOLUTIONS AND THE INHERITED FORECAST REFLECTING AN
EMPHASIS ON THE COAST AND NOT SO MUCH ON THE INTERIOR. THIS SYSTEM
DOES NOT LINGER WITH ANY CHANCES OF PRECIP APPROACHING NIL BY MONDAY
MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ONCE AGAIN RETURNS TO THE AREA. THIS
RIDGE WILL REMAIN TUESDAY AND...COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE
FLOW...WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SMR

.LONG TERM...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL WEDNESDAY. WHILE 12Z MODELS SHOWED A DRIER SOLUTION FOR
THURSDAY...18Z AND 00Z RUNS HAVE RETURNED TO THE SOLUTION OF
BRINGING A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM IN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THE CHANCE
FOR A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN. RIDGING REBUILDS THURSDAY EVENING...DRYING
THINGS OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE 30S. SMR

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH JUST SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS. 33

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT N/NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 33

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL MAINTAIN OFFSHORE FLOW
ACROSS WESTERN WA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTH TO NE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER INTERIOR B.C.
THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS MAY SEE GALES WITH FRASER RIVER OUTFLOW.
WINDS WILL EASE TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 010510
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
910 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ONE MORE
SUNNY DAY TO WESTERN WASHINGTON SUNDAY. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...STARTING TO SEE SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFT IN OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING ON THE LATEST IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT. 00Z GFS AND NAM
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO BE ALONG THE
COAST BUT CHANCES DWINDLE RAPIDLY AS YOU GO INLAND...WITH ANY PRECIP
THERE BEING PRETTY LIGHT AND SHORT LIVED. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE
WETTER SOLUTION AND THUS...AN OUTLIER. WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH
THE DRIER SOLUTIONS AND THE INHERITED FORECAST REFLECTING AN
EMPHASIS ON THE COAST AND NOT SO MUCH ON THE INTERIOR. THIS SYSTEM
DOES NOT LINGER WITH ANY CHANCES OF PRECIP APPROACHING NIL BY MONDAY
MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ONCE AGAIN RETURNS TO THE AREA. THIS
RIDGE WILL REMAIN TUESDAY AND...COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE
FLOW...WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SMR

.LONG TERM...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL WEDNESDAY. WHILE 12Z MODELS SHOWED A DRIER SOLUTION FOR
THURSDAY...18Z AND 00Z RUNS HAVE RETURNED TO THE SOLUTION OF
BRINGING A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM IN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THE CHANCE
FOR A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN. RIDGING REBUILDS THURSDAY EVENING...DRYING
THINGS OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE 30S. SMR

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH JUST SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS. 33

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT N/NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 33

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL MAINTAIN OFFSHORE FLOW
ACROSS WESTERN WA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTH TO NE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER INTERIOR B.C.
THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS MAY SEE GALES WITH FRASER RIVER OUTFLOW.
WINDS WILL EASE TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 010510
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
910 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ONE MORE
SUNNY DAY TO WESTERN WASHINGTON SUNDAY. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...STARTING TO SEE SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFT IN OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING ON THE LATEST IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT. 00Z GFS AND NAM
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO BE ALONG THE
COAST BUT CHANCES DWINDLE RAPIDLY AS YOU GO INLAND...WITH ANY PRECIP
THERE BEING PRETTY LIGHT AND SHORT LIVED. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE
WETTER SOLUTION AND THUS...AN OUTLIER. WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH
THE DRIER SOLUTIONS AND THE INHERITED FORECAST REFLECTING AN
EMPHASIS ON THE COAST AND NOT SO MUCH ON THE INTERIOR. THIS SYSTEM
DOES NOT LINGER WITH ANY CHANCES OF PRECIP APPROACHING NIL BY MONDAY
MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ONCE AGAIN RETURNS TO THE AREA. THIS
RIDGE WILL REMAIN TUESDAY AND...COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE
FLOW...WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SMR

.LONG TERM...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL WEDNESDAY. WHILE 12Z MODELS SHOWED A DRIER SOLUTION FOR
THURSDAY...18Z AND 00Z RUNS HAVE RETURNED TO THE SOLUTION OF
BRINGING A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM IN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THE CHANCE
FOR A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN. RIDGING REBUILDS THURSDAY EVENING...DRYING
THINGS OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE 30S. SMR

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH JUST SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS. 33

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT N/NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 33

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL MAINTAIN OFFSHORE FLOW
ACROSS WESTERN WA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTH TO NE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER INTERIOR B.C.
THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS MAY SEE GALES WITH FRASER RIVER OUTFLOW.
WINDS WILL EASE TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KPQR 010452
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
850 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO
CALIFORNIA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
BEHIND IT. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS
WEEKEND...WITH SEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS. A WEAKER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER
SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS AS LOW AS THE FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT. ANOTHER DRY SPELL IS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...00Z SLE SOUNDING SHOWED A VERY DRY AIRMASS SETTLEING
IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE AREA HAD A DRY
NE OFFSHORE FLOW...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS LEFT MANY
AREAS WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE 20S...EXCEPT FOR SOME 30S
LINGERING IN THE S WILLAMETTE VALLEY...THE LOWER COLUMBIA AND ALONG
THE COAST. THE DRY AIR WITH CLEAR SKEIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
BELOW FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. THE DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL DISCOURAGE
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL CUT BACK ON FOG AND LIMIT IT TO
THE COAST...LOWER COLUMBIA AND S WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...ASIDE FROM THE PATCHY
FOG...SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE...THOUGH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM MAY WORK THEIR WAY IN BY
THE END OF THE DAY.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH ALASKA...THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY SPLIT INTO TWO PIECES.
THE NORTHERN PORTION WILL BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE DOWN THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND EMERGE AS AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THE WEAKER WESTERN SYSTEM WILL
SLIDE DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...EVENTUALLY BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
MOST MODELS NOW SHOW THIS WESTERN SYSTEM TO BE IN A BIT OF A HURRY TO
JOIN THE MORE DOMINANT UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA... GUIDED BY A
100 KT+ NORTHERLY JET. AS A RESULT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER
AND QPF WILL BE LIGHT. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME
PRETTY LOW FREEZING LEVELS AS PRECIP TRIES TO MOVE IN SUN NIGHT/EARLY
MON...SO THE FOOTHILLS ABOVE 1500-2000 FT MAY GET A LIGHT DUSTING OF
SNOW BY MONDAY MORNING.

DRIER WEATHER WILL BE QUICK TO RETURN AS ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDS DOWN FROM WESTERN CANADA. MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
ANOTHER DRY AND CHILLY NIGHT WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPS IN THE OUTLYING
VALLEYS. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW RETURN.   WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MARCH
COMING IN LIKE A LAMB FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE MEAN UPPER
RIDGE POSITION LINGERS WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER
THE NE PACIFIC AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
PACIFIC JET STREAM WELL TO OUR NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. REMOVED MENTION OF ANY RAIN FROM THE
FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE VALLEYS...AS MOST GUIDANCE
PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH MAY LAST
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FLIGHT CONDITION
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
GIVES WAY TO A WEAK STORM SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA
LATE SUNDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...THERE IS A CHANCE COASTAL TAF
SITES AND POSSIBLY KHIO...KSLE AND KEUG COULD EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
MVFR OR IFR FLIGHT RESTRICTION PRIMARILY BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z
SUNDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GIVES WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS ABOVE 10KFT. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER PLAYER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND TEMPORARILY INCREASE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ENOUGH TO
LIKELY PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 25 KT ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE WATERS THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND...BUT NEITHER LOOKS TO BRING ANY NOTABLE
IMPACTS AT THIS POINT. SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER 10 FT DURING
THIS TIME. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM PST MONDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 010452
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
850 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO
CALIFORNIA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
BEHIND IT. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS
WEEKEND...WITH SEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS. A WEAKER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER
SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS AS LOW AS THE FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT. ANOTHER DRY SPELL IS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...00Z SLE SOUNDING SHOWED A VERY DRY AIRMASS SETTLEING
IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE AREA HAD A DRY
NE OFFSHORE FLOW...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS LEFT MANY
AREAS WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE 20S...EXCEPT FOR SOME 30S
LINGERING IN THE S WILLAMETTE VALLEY...THE LOWER COLUMBIA AND ALONG
THE COAST. THE DRY AIR WITH CLEAR SKEIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
BELOW FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. THE DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL DISCOURAGE
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL CUT BACK ON FOG AND LIMIT IT TO
THE COAST...LOWER COLUMBIA AND S WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...ASIDE FROM THE PATCHY
FOG...SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE...THOUGH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM MAY WORK THEIR WAY IN BY
THE END OF THE DAY.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH ALASKA...THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY SPLIT INTO TWO PIECES.
THE NORTHERN PORTION WILL BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE DOWN THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND EMERGE AS AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THE WEAKER WESTERN SYSTEM WILL
SLIDE DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...EVENTUALLY BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
MOST MODELS NOW SHOW THIS WESTERN SYSTEM TO BE IN A BIT OF A HURRY TO
JOIN THE MORE DOMINANT UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA... GUIDED BY A
100 KT+ NORTHERLY JET. AS A RESULT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER
AND QPF WILL BE LIGHT. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME
PRETTY LOW FREEZING LEVELS AS PRECIP TRIES TO MOVE IN SUN NIGHT/EARLY
MON...SO THE FOOTHILLS ABOVE 1500-2000 FT MAY GET A LIGHT DUSTING OF
SNOW BY MONDAY MORNING.

DRIER WEATHER WILL BE QUICK TO RETURN AS ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDS DOWN FROM WESTERN CANADA. MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
ANOTHER DRY AND CHILLY NIGHT WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPS IN THE OUTLYING
VALLEYS. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW RETURN.   WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MARCH
COMING IN LIKE A LAMB FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE MEAN UPPER
RIDGE POSITION LINGERS WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER
THE NE PACIFIC AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
PACIFIC JET STREAM WELL TO OUR NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. REMOVED MENTION OF ANY RAIN FROM THE
FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE VALLEYS...AS MOST GUIDANCE
PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH MAY LAST
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FLIGHT CONDITION
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
GIVES WAY TO A WEAK STORM SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA
LATE SUNDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...THERE IS A CHANCE COASTAL TAF
SITES AND POSSIBLY KHIO...KSLE AND KEUG COULD EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
MVFR OR IFR FLIGHT RESTRICTION PRIMARILY BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z
SUNDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GIVES WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS ABOVE 10KFT. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER PLAYER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND TEMPORARILY INCREASE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ENOUGH TO
LIKELY PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 25 KT ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE WATERS THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND...BUT NEITHER LOOKS TO BRING ANY NOTABLE
IMPACTS AT THIS POINT. SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER 10 FT DURING
THIS TIME. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM PST MONDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 010452
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
850 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO
CALIFORNIA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
BEHIND IT. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS
WEEKEND...WITH SEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS. A WEAKER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER
SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS AS LOW AS THE FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT. ANOTHER DRY SPELL IS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...00Z SLE SOUNDING SHOWED A VERY DRY AIRMASS SETTLEING
IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE AREA HAD A DRY
NE OFFSHORE FLOW...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS LEFT MANY
AREAS WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE 20S...EXCEPT FOR SOME 30S
LINGERING IN THE S WILLAMETTE VALLEY...THE LOWER COLUMBIA AND ALONG
THE COAST. THE DRY AIR WITH CLEAR SKEIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
BELOW FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. THE DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL DISCOURAGE
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL CUT BACK ON FOG AND LIMIT IT TO
THE COAST...LOWER COLUMBIA AND S WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...ASIDE FROM THE PATCHY
FOG...SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE...THOUGH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM MAY WORK THEIR WAY IN BY
THE END OF THE DAY.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH ALASKA...THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY SPLIT INTO TWO PIECES.
THE NORTHERN PORTION WILL BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE DOWN THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND EMERGE AS AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THE WEAKER WESTERN SYSTEM WILL
SLIDE DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...EVENTUALLY BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
MOST MODELS NOW SHOW THIS WESTERN SYSTEM TO BE IN A BIT OF A HURRY TO
JOIN THE MORE DOMINANT UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA... GUIDED BY A
100 KT+ NORTHERLY JET. AS A RESULT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER
AND QPF WILL BE LIGHT. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME
PRETTY LOW FREEZING LEVELS AS PRECIP TRIES TO MOVE IN SUN NIGHT/EARLY
MON...SO THE FOOTHILLS ABOVE 1500-2000 FT MAY GET A LIGHT DUSTING OF
SNOW BY MONDAY MORNING.

DRIER WEATHER WILL BE QUICK TO RETURN AS ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDS DOWN FROM WESTERN CANADA. MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
ANOTHER DRY AND CHILLY NIGHT WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPS IN THE OUTLYING
VALLEYS. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW RETURN.   WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MARCH
COMING IN LIKE A LAMB FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE MEAN UPPER
RIDGE POSITION LINGERS WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER
THE NE PACIFIC AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
PACIFIC JET STREAM WELL TO OUR NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. REMOVED MENTION OF ANY RAIN FROM THE
FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE VALLEYS...AS MOST GUIDANCE
PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH MAY LAST
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FLIGHT CONDITION
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
GIVES WAY TO A WEAK STORM SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA
LATE SUNDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...THERE IS A CHANCE COASTAL TAF
SITES AND POSSIBLY KHIO...KSLE AND KEUG COULD EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
MVFR OR IFR FLIGHT RESTRICTION PRIMARILY BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z
SUNDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GIVES WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS ABOVE 10KFT. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER PLAYER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND TEMPORARILY INCREASE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ENOUGH TO
LIKELY PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 25 KT ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE WATERS THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND...BUT NEITHER LOOKS TO BRING ANY NOTABLE
IMPACTS AT THIS POINT. SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER 10 FT DURING
THIS TIME. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM PST MONDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 010452
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
850 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO
CALIFORNIA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
BEHIND IT. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS
WEEKEND...WITH SEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS. A WEAKER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER
SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS AS LOW AS THE FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT. ANOTHER DRY SPELL IS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...00Z SLE SOUNDING SHOWED A VERY DRY AIRMASS SETTLEING
IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE AREA HAD A DRY
NE OFFSHORE FLOW...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS LEFT MANY
AREAS WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE 20S...EXCEPT FOR SOME 30S
LINGERING IN THE S WILLAMETTE VALLEY...THE LOWER COLUMBIA AND ALONG
THE COAST. THE DRY AIR WITH CLEAR SKEIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
BELOW FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. THE DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL DISCOURAGE
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL CUT BACK ON FOG AND LIMIT IT TO
THE COAST...LOWER COLUMBIA AND S WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...ASIDE FROM THE PATCHY
FOG...SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE...THOUGH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM MAY WORK THEIR WAY IN BY
THE END OF THE DAY.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH ALASKA...THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY SPLIT INTO TWO PIECES.
THE NORTHERN PORTION WILL BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE DOWN THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND EMERGE AS AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THE WEAKER WESTERN SYSTEM WILL
SLIDE DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...EVENTUALLY BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
MOST MODELS NOW SHOW THIS WESTERN SYSTEM TO BE IN A BIT OF A HURRY TO
JOIN THE MORE DOMINANT UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA... GUIDED BY A
100 KT+ NORTHERLY JET. AS A RESULT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER
AND QPF WILL BE LIGHT. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME
PRETTY LOW FREEZING LEVELS AS PRECIP TRIES TO MOVE IN SUN NIGHT/EARLY
MON...SO THE FOOTHILLS ABOVE 1500-2000 FT MAY GET A LIGHT DUSTING OF
SNOW BY MONDAY MORNING.

DRIER WEATHER WILL BE QUICK TO RETURN AS ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDS DOWN FROM WESTERN CANADA. MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
ANOTHER DRY AND CHILLY NIGHT WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPS IN THE OUTLYING
VALLEYS. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW RETURN.   WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MARCH
COMING IN LIKE A LAMB FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE MEAN UPPER
RIDGE POSITION LINGERS WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER...OVER
THE NE PACIFIC AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
PACIFIC JET STREAM WELL TO OUR NORTH...AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. REMOVED MENTION OF ANY RAIN FROM THE
FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE VALLEYS...AS MOST GUIDANCE
PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ONSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH MAY LAST
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FLIGHT CONDITION
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
GIVES WAY TO A WEAK STORM SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA
LATE SUNDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...THERE IS A CHANCE COASTAL TAF
SITES AND POSSIBLY KHIO...KSLE AND KEUG COULD EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
MVFR OR IFR FLIGHT RESTRICTION PRIMARILY BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z
SUNDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GIVES WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS ABOVE 10KFT. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER PLAYER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND TEMPORARILY INCREASE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ENOUGH TO
LIKELY PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 25 KT ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE WATERS THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND...BUT NEITHER LOOKS TO BRING ANY NOTABLE
IMPACTS AT THIS POINT. SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER 10 FT DURING
THIS TIME. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM PST MONDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



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