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000
FXUS66 KOTX 072332
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
332 PM PST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will develop tonight and persist into
Wednesday. Dry and mild conditions are expected for the first half
of the week. A more progressive and unsettled pattern will return
late this week bringing a chance of light rain Thursday in the
Cascades and over the rest of the region Friday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Monday: A ridge of high pressure will strengthen in
over the region the next 24 hours. Mid level moisture riding up
over the ridge this afternoon will decrease through the evening. A
few flurries may be possible over the Northern Panhandle before
skies clear out overnight. Strong inversions will develop with
patchy fog possible for many of the mountain valley locations.
This inversion will be even more difficult to break on Monday
compared to today. The fog that does develop may burn off a bit
later in the day and keep surface temperatures in the upper 30s
to low 40s for the mountain valleys. /SVH

Monday night through Thursday...This period will be characterized
by a strong upper level ridge...light winds...cool morning low
temperatures with varying fields of fog and low clouds each
morning and a general break out over most of the region during the
afternoon with high temperatures rising above normal for most
locations. The Palouse and L-C valley will be the clearest and
mildest regions with a general easterly gradient keeping fog
scarce and promoting well above average temperatures due to
downslope compressional warming each day. The deep basin and
Cascades valleys where the easterly gradient will transport and deposit
the more stagnant air will see the most fog and low clouds and the
weakest daily clearing potential below 4000 feet. Thursday the
ridge axis will begin to shift eastward...and allow a more moist
Pacific southwesterly flow to take over. Precipitation chances
will begin to increase over the Cascades and northern
mountains...but with little impact over the lion`s share of the
forecast area beyond increasing high clouds.

Thursday night through Sunday...Models are in pretty good
agreement for the remainder of the extended forecast period.
Thursday night the upper level rideg axis continues to migrate
east and out of the region with increasingly moist southwesterly
flow becoming established. Precipitation chances will begin to
spread through the forecast area from west to east. Snow levels
will remain quite high in this southwest warm advection
scenario...but the colder boundary layer air trapped in the
cascade Valleys may allow some freezing rain as early as Thursday
morning and a better chance on Friday morning. Friday will be a
transition day between the dry ridgy weather regime and a more
active Pacific storm regime. A cold front with a significant
potential fro valley rain and mountain snow will cross the region
on or about Friday night and Saturday. This evolution will scrub
the region by wiping out any lingering inversion and allow a
lowering of snow levels for subsequent storms. Another and
possibly better organized storm may approach the region on
Sunday...but model details are sketchy and unreliable at this
time. /Fugazzi


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A strong upper level ridge aloft and building high
pressure over Idaho will promote clearing skies tonight after mid
level cloud decks move out to the east this evening. A strong
nocturnal inversion is expected to develop overnight with fog
development by dawn especially near water courses. The best
candidates for morning LIFR conditions will be at KGEG and KSFF
and less likely but possible at KLWS and KEAT. Enough mixing is
expected to occur by 18Z or so to evaporate fog for VFR
conditions through 00Z Tuesday. /MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        27  44  30  47  31  46 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  28  46  30  47  31  47 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        31  51  32  53  34  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       35  54  34  54  37  55 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       25  41  26  41  29  43 /  10   0   0   0  10   0
Sandpoint      27  42  29  43  31  44 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Kellogg        28  45  29  48  32  46 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     28  45  29  46  31  46 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Wenatchee      30  40  30  41  31  44 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Omak           25  39  26  39  28  40 /  10   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



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000
FXUS66 KSEW 072308
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 PM PST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DRY AND MILD WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A
STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST BY WEDNESDAY OPENING THE DOOR TO MORE FRONTAL SYSTEMS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW WILL BRING DRY
AND MILD WEATHER TO WESTERN WA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL PREVAIL FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MAY SEE GUSTY EAST WINDS BELOW
THE CASCADE GAPS. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FORM OVER THE NE PAC ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
KICK THE RIDGE AXIS FARTHER INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A FEW
DEGREES BUT STILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE TAIL END OF A
FRONT MAY CLIP THE COAST FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN. 33

.LONG TERM...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH WESTERN WA ON
THURSDAY FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE BEEN BACKING OFF ON THIS SYSTEM AND MAY
NOT SEE MUCH RAIN IN THE INTERIOR. FRIDAY IS LOOKING WETTER AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OFF THE COAST AND MOVES INLAND. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT. WE MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER ON
SUNDAY...THEN A WETTER PAC SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT. CONTD WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE. AREAS OF LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS /DUE TO FOG/ ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DEVELOP MAINLY FROM KSHN TO KTCM SWD. AFTER 0600 UTC AND PERSIST
TIL 1800 UTC...

KSEA...NLY WINDS WILL PERSIST BUT WILL BECOME LIGHTER LATE TODAY OR
EARLY THIS EVENING. SHALLOW FOG IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
MON. ALTHOUGH...A LAYER OF CIRRUS MAY INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER
TONIGHT. FOR THIS REASON...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WAS NOT VERY
HIGH. WILL STAY WITH THE INHERITED IDEA OF SHALLOW FOG REDUCING
VSBYS TO 2SM AT THE TERMINAL EARLY MON.

&&

.MARINE... LOWER PRES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH A 1040 MB HIGH E
OF THE CASCADES WILL KEEP THE FLOW EASTERLY THROUGH
MIDWEEK...ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME. A WEAK
WARM FRONT MAY CLIP THE AREA ON WED.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT TO 10 NM AND THE
     WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



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000
FXUS66 KPQR 072223
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
222 PM PST SUN FEB  7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGH TUESDAY. RESULTANT OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE GORGE WHICH
BEGAN TODAY WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. LOOK FOR MORE VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS AWAY FROM THE GORGE BUT WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE WESTERN
GORGE AND IN PARTS OF THE PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER AREAS. THE FIRST
SYSTEM THAT WILL TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ARRIVE AT THE
COAST WEDNESDAY...WITH SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS BRINGING SOME RAIN AT TIMES
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CLOUDS WERE GENERALLY
MOVING NORTH OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE COAST CONTINUED TO BUILD
NORTHWARD. THE EXCEPTION WAS THE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THAT HAVE
CLEARED NORTH OF SALEM BUT WERE STILL PERSISTING IN THE SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THOSE ARE TRYING TO CLEAR...BUT NOT SURE IT WILL
BE ENTIRELY SUCCESSFUL. IF THEY DO SUCCESSFULLY CLEAR...THEY WILL
REFORM AGAIN FAIRLY EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN BUILD BACK NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

OFFSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS THROUGH THE GORGE HAVE SURPASSED
4 MB THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 7 OR 8 MB
TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 50 OR 55 MPH AT CORBETT AND ROOSTER ROCK...AND 65
TO 75 MPH OR SO AT CROWN POINT. THIS EAST WIND EVENT IS MOSTLY A GAP
FLOW EVENT...WITH AN INVERSION DEVELOPING NEAR THE CASCADE CREST.
THUS THE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND PARTS
OF THE PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER METRO AREAS THE MOST...AND RESTRICT FOG
IN THOSE AREAS. BUT AREAS AWAY FROM THE GORGE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
SEE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE AIR MASS IS QUITE WARM ABOVE THE DEVELOPING INVERSION...AND WE
WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS WELL UP INTO THE 60S IN PARTS OF THE COAST
RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND POSSIBLY
NEAR THE COAST. SOME AREAS IN THE VALLEYS THAT DO NOT HAVE MUCH FOG
COULD GET THERE AS WELL.

EAST WINDS RELAX TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
EAST AND THE FIRST SYSTEM TRYING TO KNOCK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE
REACHES OR APPROACHES THE COAST. WE SHOULD STILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF
MORNING FOG INLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL CHANCES
OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST AS THIS FIRST SYSTEM WEAKENS DRAMATICALLY.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ACTIVE AND
MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP FOR LATE THIS WEEK. COAST
MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE. THE FRONT IS FINALLY PUSHED
EASTWARD ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS
WESTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. RAIN TURNS TO SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT AND STARTS TO TAPER OFF LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
SATURDAY COULD BE MOSTLY DRY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS MORE RAIN
ON SUNDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW HAS RESULTED IN MOST LOCATIONS
TURNING VFR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN EXCEPTION TO THIS IDEA
BEING FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY WHERE IFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THESE CONDITIONS WILL NOT IMPROVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND EVEN IF THEY DO...KEUG
WILL LIKELY RETURN TO IFR VERY QUICKLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT INCREASING EAST WINDS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE TONIGHT. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THE KPDX AND KHIO WILL DECOUPLE
ENOUGH THAT THEY MAY SEE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND DETAILS REMAINS RATHER
LOW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...INCREASING EAST WINDS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE WILL BRING PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO THE
TERMINAL THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS COULD PUSH UP THE RIVER FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD
CENTERED AROUND 12 TO 15Z MONDAY AS WEAK WEST WINDS LIKELY DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT. /NEUMAN
&&

.MARINE...A WESTERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE MONDAY MORNING AND PUSH SEAS
INTO THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT WARM FRONTAL STORM
SYSTEM SHOULD SPREAD SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT INTO THE WATERS
LATE TUESDAY. SEVERAL ADDITIONAL WEAK FRONTAL STORM SYSTEMS MAY BRING
PERIODS OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS TO THE WATERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK...BUT AT THIS POINT...STRONGER WINDS APPEAR UNLIKELY.
NONETHELESS...STORM SYSTEMS FARTHER OFFSHORE WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY
STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME LARGER WESTERLY SWELLS TO PUSH SEAS
SOLIDLY INTO THE TEENS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. /NEUMAN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM TO
     9 PM PST MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     6 PM PST THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     10 AM TO 9 PM PST MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 072215
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
215 PM PST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will develop tonight and persist into
Wednesday. Dry and mild conditions are expected for the first half
of the week. A more progressive and unsettled pattern will return
late this week bringing a chance of light rain Thursday in the
Cascades and over the rest of the region Friday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Monday: A ridge of high pressure will strengthen in
over the region the next 24 hours. Mid level moisture riding up
over the ridge this afternoon will decrease through the evening. A
few flurries may be possible over the Northern Panhandle before
skies clear out overnight. Strong inversions will develop with
patchy fog possible for many of the mountain valley locations.
This inversion will be even more difficult to break on Monday
compared to today. The fog that does develop may burn off a bit
later in the day and keep surface temperatures in the upper 30s
to low 40s for the mountain valleys. /SVH

Monday night through Thursday...This period will be characterized
by a strong upper level ridge...light winds...cool morning low
temperatures with varying fields of fog and low clouds each
morning and a general break out over most of the region during the
afternoon with high temperatures rising above normal for most
locations. The Palouse and L-C valley will be the clearest and
mildest regions with a general easterly gradient keeping fog
scarce and promoting well above average temperatures due to
downslope compressional warming each day. The deep basin and
Cascades valleys where the easterly gradient will transport and deposit
the more stagnant air will see the most fog and low clouds and the
weakest daily clearing potential below 4000 feet. Thursday the
ridge axis will begin to shift eastward...and allow a more moist
Pacific southwesterly flow to take over. Precipitation chances
will begin to increase over the Cascades and northern
mountains...but with little impact over the lion`s share of the
forecast area beyond increasing high clouds.

Thursday night through Sunday...Models are in pretty good
agreement for the remainder of the extended forecast period.
Thursday night the upper level rideg axis continues to migrate
east and out of the region with increasingly moist southwesterly
flow becoming established. Precipitation chances will begin to
spread through the forecast area from west to east. Snow levels
will remain quite high in this southwest warm advection
scenario...but the colder boundary layer air trapped in the
cascade Valleys may allow some freezing rain as early as Thursday
morning and a better chance on Friday morning. Friday will be a
transition day between the dry ridgy weather regime and a more
active Pacific storm regime. A cold front with a significant
potential fro valley rain and mountain snow will cross the region
on or about Friday night and Saturday. This evolution will scrub
the region by wiping out any lingering inversion and allow a
lowering of snow levels for subsequent storms. Another and
possibly better organized storm may approach the region on
Sunday...but model details are sketchy and unreliable at this
time. /Fugazzi


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Shallow fog around the Spokane Area will result in VLIFR
conditions through 19Z, but should then quickly burn off for the
afternoon. High pressure will continue to build in today. High and
mid level clouds will filter in over the ridge with cigs generally
remaining above 8 kft agl. These clouds will thin out tonight with
more shallow fog possible around the region, especially near water
bodies and in deep valleys (including KSFF). /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        27  44  30  47  31  46 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  28  46  30  47  31  47 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        31  51  32  53  34  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       35  54  34  54  37  55 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       25  41  26  41  29  43 /  10   0   0   0  10   0
Sandpoint      27  42  29  43  31  44 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Kellogg        28  45  29  48  32  46 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     28  45  29  46  31  46 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Wenatchee      30  40  30  41  31  44 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Omak           25  39  26  39  28  40 /  10   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 072215
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
215 PM PST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will develop tonight and persist into
Wednesday. Dry and mild conditions are expected for the first half
of the week. A more progressive and unsettled pattern will return
late this week bringing a chance of light rain Thursday in the
Cascades and over the rest of the region Friday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Monday: A ridge of high pressure will strengthen in
over the region the next 24 hours. Mid level moisture riding up
over the ridge this afternoon will decrease through the evening. A
few flurries may be possible over the Northern Panhandle before
skies clear out overnight. Strong inversions will develop with
patchy fog possible for many of the mountain valley locations.
This inversion will be even more difficult to break on Monday
compared to today. The fog that does develop may burn off a bit
later in the day and keep surface temperatures in the upper 30s
to low 40s for the mountain valleys. /SVH

Monday night through Thursday...This period will be characterized
by a strong upper level ridge...light winds...cool morning low
temperatures with varying fields of fog and low clouds each
morning and a general break out over most of the region during the
afternoon with high temperatures rising above normal for most
locations. The Palouse and L-C valley will be the clearest and
mildest regions with a general easterly gradient keeping fog
scarce and promoting well above average temperatures due to
downslope compressional warming each day. The deep basin and
Cascades valleys where the easterly gradient will transport and deposit
the more stagnant air will see the most fog and low clouds and the
weakest daily clearing potential below 4000 feet. Thursday the
ridge axis will begin to shift eastward...and allow a more moist
Pacific southwesterly flow to take over. Precipitation chances
will begin to increase over the Cascades and northern
mountains...but with little impact over the lion`s share of the
forecast area beyond increasing high clouds.

Thursday night through Sunday...Models are in pretty good
agreement for the remainder of the extended forecast period.
Thursday night the upper level rideg axis continues to migrate
east and out of the region with increasingly moist southwesterly
flow becoming established. Precipitation chances will begin to
spread through the forecast area from west to east. Snow levels
will remain quite high in this southwest warm advection
scenario...but the colder boundary layer air trapped in the
cascade Valleys may allow some freezing rain as early as Thursday
morning and a better chance on Friday morning. Friday will be a
transition day between the dry ridgy weather regime and a more
active Pacific storm regime. A cold front with a significant
potential fro valley rain and mountain snow will cross the region
on or about Friday night and Saturday. This evolution will scrub
the region by wiping out any lingering inversion and allow a
lowering of snow levels for subsequent storms. Another and
possibly better organized storm may approach the region on
Sunday...but model details are sketchy and unreliable at this
time. /Fugazzi


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Shallow fog around the Spokane Area will result in VLIFR
conditions through 19Z, but should then quickly burn off for the
afternoon. High pressure will continue to build in today. High and
mid level clouds will filter in over the ridge with cigs generally
remaining above 8 kft agl. These clouds will thin out tonight with
more shallow fog possible around the region, especially near water
bodies and in deep valleys (including KSFF). /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        27  44  30  47  31  46 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  28  46  30  47  31  47 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        31  51  32  53  34  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       35  54  34  54  37  55 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       25  41  26  41  29  43 /  10   0   0   0  10   0
Sandpoint      27  42  29  43  31  44 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Kellogg        28  45  29  48  32  46 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     28  45  29  46  31  46 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Wenatchee      30  40  30  41  31  44 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Omak           25  39  26  39  28  40 /  10   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 072215
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
215 PM PST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will develop tonight and persist into
Wednesday. Dry and mild conditions are expected for the first half
of the week. A more progressive and unsettled pattern will return
late this week bringing a chance of light rain Thursday in the
Cascades and over the rest of the region Friday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Monday: A ridge of high pressure will strengthen in
over the region the next 24 hours. Mid level moisture riding up
over the ridge this afternoon will decrease through the evening. A
few flurries may be possible over the Northern Panhandle before
skies clear out overnight. Strong inversions will develop with
patchy fog possible for many of the mountain valley locations.
This inversion will be even more difficult to break on Monday
compared to today. The fog that does develop may burn off a bit
later in the day and keep surface temperatures in the upper 30s
to low 40s for the mountain valleys. /SVH

Monday night through Thursday...This period will be characterized
by a strong upper level ridge...light winds...cool morning low
temperatures with varying fields of fog and low clouds each
morning and a general break out over most of the region during the
afternoon with high temperatures rising above normal for most
locations. The Palouse and L-C valley will be the clearest and
mildest regions with a general easterly gradient keeping fog
scarce and promoting well above average temperatures due to
downslope compressional warming each day. The deep basin and
Cascades valleys where the easterly gradient will transport and deposit
the more stagnant air will see the most fog and low clouds and the
weakest daily clearing potential below 4000 feet. Thursday the
ridge axis will begin to shift eastward...and allow a more moist
Pacific southwesterly flow to take over. Precipitation chances
will begin to increase over the Cascades and northern
mountains...but with little impact over the lion`s share of the
forecast area beyond increasing high clouds.

Thursday night through Sunday...Models are in pretty good
agreement for the remainder of the extended forecast period.
Thursday night the upper level rideg axis continues to migrate
east and out of the region with increasingly moist southwesterly
flow becoming established. Precipitation chances will begin to
spread through the forecast area from west to east. Snow levels
will remain quite high in this southwest warm advection
scenario...but the colder boundary layer air trapped in the
cascade Valleys may allow some freezing rain as early as Thursday
morning and a better chance on Friday morning. Friday will be a
transition day between the dry ridgy weather regime and a more
active Pacific storm regime. A cold front with a significant
potential fro valley rain and mountain snow will cross the region
on or about Friday night and Saturday. This evolution will scrub
the region by wiping out any lingering inversion and allow a
lowering of snow levels for subsequent storms. Another and
possibly better organized storm may approach the region on
Sunday...but model details are sketchy and unreliable at this
time. /Fugazzi


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Shallow fog around the Spokane Area will result in VLIFR
conditions through 19Z, but should then quickly burn off for the
afternoon. High pressure will continue to build in today. High and
mid level clouds will filter in over the ridge with cigs generally
remaining above 8 kft agl. These clouds will thin out tonight with
more shallow fog possible around the region, especially near water
bodies and in deep valleys (including KSFF). /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        27  44  30  47  31  46 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  28  46  30  47  31  47 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        31  51  32  53  34  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       35  54  34  54  37  55 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       25  41  26  41  29  43 /  10   0   0   0  10   0
Sandpoint      27  42  29  43  31  44 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Kellogg        28  45  29  48  32  46 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     28  45  29  46  31  46 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Wenatchee      30  40  30  41  31  44 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Omak           25  39  26  39  28  40 /  10   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KPQR 071800
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1000 AM PST SUN FEB  7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING NORTH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY FOR CLEARING SKIES...WITH DECREASING FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS LATER TODAY. OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE GORGE HAS BEGUN BUT
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...WITH
MORE VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS AWAY FROM
THE GORGE. THE FIRST SYSTEM THAT WILL TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST WEDNESDAY... WITH SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS
BRINGING SOME RAIN AT TIMES THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE CLOUDS FROM THE WEAK WARM
FRONT HAVE MOVED NORTH THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE COAST
CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTHWARD. SKIES WERE CLEARING EXCEPT FOR SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND FOR VALLEY LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG THAT MAY TAKE UNTIL TO MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO FULLY
CLEAR. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS THROUGH THE GORGE ARE ALREADY NEARLY 4
MB...AND WILL HAVE SOME WIND TODAY NEAR THE GORGE.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. EAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE GRADIENT THROUGH
THE GORGE INCREASES TO 7 OR 8 MB. THIS WILL BE A SHALLOW GAP WIND
EVENT AS THE WINDS AT 850 AND 700 MB ARE LIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THUS THE MAIN WIND WILL BE IN THE GORGE AND PARTS OF THE PORTLAND AND
VANCOUVER AREAS. THUS...EXPECT MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO FORM IN THE
NIGHTS AND MORNINGS IN THE VALLEYS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AWAY FROM THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY NICE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH NO MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND PROBABLY NOT TOO BAD IN THE LOW CLOUDS AREAS ONCE THE
LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF. THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE TEMPS WILL BE LOWER NEAR
EUGENE WHERE THE FOG HANGS ON THE LONGEST...AND NOT TOO BAD IN THE
PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER AREAS THOUGH THE EAST WINDS MAY CAP THEM A
BIT. THE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
MID ELEVATIONS OF THE COAST RANGE AND THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS...WHICH
WILL FEEL THE BRUNT OF THE WARMER AIR ALOFT ABOVE THE DEVELOPING
INVERSION. THOSE AREAS COULD REACH WELL UP INTO THE 60S. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ON WED...OFFSHORE FLOW MUCH WEAKER.
AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH MINOR THREAT OF
RAIN ON THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THREAT OF RAIN LIKELY TO
INCREASE WED EVENING AS REMAINS OF THE FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE.
AFTERWARDS...WILL SEE A SERIES OF SYSTEMS THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND THAT WILL BRING AN CHANCE OF RAIN AT TIMES TO
REGION AT TIMES.
&&

.AVIATION...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN MOST
LOCATIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY AND 00Z MONDAY. EAST
WINDS NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND ALONG THE COAST SHOULD KEEP
THESE TAF SITES MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT WHILE KEUG AND KSLE DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY INTO LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z MONDAY. THERE IS
A DECENT CHANCE THE KHIO AND EVEN KPDX WILL DECOUPLE ENOUGH TO
EXPERIENCE A PERIOD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...INCREASING EAST WINDS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE WILL BRING PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO THE
TERMINAL THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS COULD PUSH UP THE RIVER BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z
MONDAY AS WEAK WEST WINDS LIKELY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. /NEUMAN
&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD OFFSHORE HAS RESULTED IN
WEAKER WINDS THAN EXPECTED SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND GUSTS
OF 25 KT HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A WESTERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE MONDAY
MORNING AND PUSH SEAS INTO THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE. WILL LIKELY ISSUE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT WARM FRONTAL STORM SYSTEM SHOULD SPREAD
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT INTO THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY. SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL WEAK FRONTAL STORM SYSTEMS MAY BRING PERIODS OF 25 TO 30
KT WINDS TO THE WATERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT AT
THIS POINT...STRONGER WINDS APPEAR UNLIKELY. NONETHELESS...STORM
SYSTEMS FARTHER OFFSHORE WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SOME LARGER WESTERLY SWELLS TO SOLIDLY PUSH SEAS INTO THE TEENS LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK. /NEUMAN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM PST THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 10 AM
     TO 9 PM PST MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 071800
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1000 AM PST SUN FEB  7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING NORTH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY FOR CLEARING SKIES...WITH DECREASING FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS LATER TODAY. OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE GORGE HAS BEGUN BUT
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...WITH
MORE VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS AWAY FROM
THE GORGE. THE FIRST SYSTEM THAT WILL TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST WEDNESDAY... WITH SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS
BRINGING SOME RAIN AT TIMES THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE CLOUDS FROM THE WEAK WARM
FRONT HAVE MOVED NORTH THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE COAST
CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTHWARD. SKIES WERE CLEARING EXCEPT FOR SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND FOR VALLEY LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG THAT MAY TAKE UNTIL TO MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO FULLY
CLEAR. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS THROUGH THE GORGE ARE ALREADY NEARLY 4
MB...AND WILL HAVE SOME WIND TODAY NEAR THE GORGE.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. EAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE GRADIENT THROUGH
THE GORGE INCREASES TO 7 OR 8 MB. THIS WILL BE A SHALLOW GAP WIND
EVENT AS THE WINDS AT 850 AND 700 MB ARE LIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THUS THE MAIN WIND WILL BE IN THE GORGE AND PARTS OF THE PORTLAND AND
VANCOUVER AREAS. THUS...EXPECT MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO FORM IN THE
NIGHTS AND MORNINGS IN THE VALLEYS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AWAY FROM THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY NICE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH NO MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND PROBABLY NOT TOO BAD IN THE LOW CLOUDS AREAS ONCE THE
LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF. THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE TEMPS WILL BE LOWER NEAR
EUGENE WHERE THE FOG HANGS ON THE LONGEST...AND NOT TOO BAD IN THE
PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER AREAS THOUGH THE EAST WINDS MAY CAP THEM A
BIT. THE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
MID ELEVATIONS OF THE COAST RANGE AND THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS...WHICH
WILL FEEL THE BRUNT OF THE WARMER AIR ALOFT ABOVE THE DEVELOPING
INVERSION. THOSE AREAS COULD REACH WELL UP INTO THE 60S. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ON WED...OFFSHORE FLOW MUCH WEAKER.
AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH MINOR THREAT OF
RAIN ON THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THREAT OF RAIN LIKELY TO
INCREASE WED EVENING AS REMAINS OF THE FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE.
AFTERWARDS...WILL SEE A SERIES OF SYSTEMS THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND THAT WILL BRING AN CHANCE OF RAIN AT TIMES TO
REGION AT TIMES.
&&

.AVIATION...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN MOST
LOCATIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY AND 00Z MONDAY. EAST
WINDS NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND ALONG THE COAST SHOULD KEEP
THESE TAF SITES MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT WHILE KEUG AND KSLE DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY INTO LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z MONDAY. THERE IS
A DECENT CHANCE THE KHIO AND EVEN KPDX WILL DECOUPLE ENOUGH TO
EXPERIENCE A PERIOD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...INCREASING EAST WINDS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE WILL BRING PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO THE
TERMINAL THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS COULD PUSH UP THE RIVER BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z
MONDAY AS WEAK WEST WINDS LIKELY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. /NEUMAN
&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD OFFSHORE HAS RESULTED IN
WEAKER WINDS THAN EXPECTED SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND GUSTS
OF 25 KT HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A WESTERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE MONDAY
MORNING AND PUSH SEAS INTO THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE. WILL LIKELY ISSUE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT WARM FRONTAL STORM SYSTEM SHOULD SPREAD
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT INTO THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY. SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL WEAK FRONTAL STORM SYSTEMS MAY BRING PERIODS OF 25 TO 30
KT WINDS TO THE WATERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT AT
THIS POINT...STRONGER WINDS APPEAR UNLIKELY. NONETHELESS...STORM
SYSTEMS FARTHER OFFSHORE WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SOME LARGER WESTERLY SWELLS TO SOLIDLY PUSH SEAS INTO THE TEENS LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK. /NEUMAN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM PST THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 10 AM
     TO 9 PM PST MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 071800
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1000 AM PST SUN FEB  7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING NORTH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY FOR CLEARING SKIES...WITH DECREASING FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS LATER TODAY. OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE GORGE HAS BEGUN BUT
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...WITH
MORE VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS AWAY FROM
THE GORGE. THE FIRST SYSTEM THAT WILL TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST WEDNESDAY... WITH SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS
BRINGING SOME RAIN AT TIMES THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE CLOUDS FROM THE WEAK WARM
FRONT HAVE MOVED NORTH THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE COAST
CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTHWARD. SKIES WERE CLEARING EXCEPT FOR SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND FOR VALLEY LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG THAT MAY TAKE UNTIL TO MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO FULLY
CLEAR. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS THROUGH THE GORGE ARE ALREADY NEARLY 4
MB...AND WILL HAVE SOME WIND TODAY NEAR THE GORGE.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. EAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE GRADIENT THROUGH
THE GORGE INCREASES TO 7 OR 8 MB. THIS WILL BE A SHALLOW GAP WIND
EVENT AS THE WINDS AT 850 AND 700 MB ARE LIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THUS THE MAIN WIND WILL BE IN THE GORGE AND PARTS OF THE PORTLAND AND
VANCOUVER AREAS. THUS...EXPECT MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO FORM IN THE
NIGHTS AND MORNINGS IN THE VALLEYS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AWAY FROM THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY NICE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH NO MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND PROBABLY NOT TOO BAD IN THE LOW CLOUDS AREAS ONCE THE
LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF. THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE TEMPS WILL BE LOWER NEAR
EUGENE WHERE THE FOG HANGS ON THE LONGEST...AND NOT TOO BAD IN THE
PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER AREAS THOUGH THE EAST WINDS MAY CAP THEM A
BIT. THE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
MID ELEVATIONS OF THE COAST RANGE AND THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS...WHICH
WILL FEEL THE BRUNT OF THE WARMER AIR ALOFT ABOVE THE DEVELOPING
INVERSION. THOSE AREAS COULD REACH WELL UP INTO THE 60S. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ON WED...OFFSHORE FLOW MUCH WEAKER.
AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH MINOR THREAT OF
RAIN ON THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THREAT OF RAIN LIKELY TO
INCREASE WED EVENING AS REMAINS OF THE FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE.
AFTERWARDS...WILL SEE A SERIES OF SYSTEMS THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND THAT WILL BRING AN CHANCE OF RAIN AT TIMES TO
REGION AT TIMES.
&&

.AVIATION...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN MOST
LOCATIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY AND 00Z MONDAY. EAST
WINDS NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND ALONG THE COAST SHOULD KEEP
THESE TAF SITES MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT WHILE KEUG AND KSLE DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY INTO LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z MONDAY. THERE IS
A DECENT CHANCE THE KHIO AND EVEN KPDX WILL DECOUPLE ENOUGH TO
EXPERIENCE A PERIOD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...INCREASING EAST WINDS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE WILL BRING PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO THE
TERMINAL THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS COULD PUSH UP THE RIVER BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z
MONDAY AS WEAK WEST WINDS LIKELY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. /NEUMAN
&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD OFFSHORE HAS RESULTED IN
WEAKER WINDS THAN EXPECTED SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND GUSTS
OF 25 KT HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A WESTERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE MONDAY
MORNING AND PUSH SEAS INTO THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE. WILL LIKELY ISSUE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT WARM FRONTAL STORM SYSTEM SHOULD SPREAD
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT INTO THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY. SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL WEAK FRONTAL STORM SYSTEMS MAY BRING PERIODS OF 25 TO 30
KT WINDS TO THE WATERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT AT
THIS POINT...STRONGER WINDS APPEAR UNLIKELY. NONETHELESS...STORM
SYSTEMS FARTHER OFFSHORE WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SOME LARGER WESTERLY SWELLS TO SOLIDLY PUSH SEAS INTO THE TEENS LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK. /NEUMAN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM PST THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 10 AM
     TO 9 PM PST MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 071752
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
952 AM PST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak upper level disturbance will produce clouds over the Inland
Northwest today. Strong high pressure will develop tonight and
persist into Wednesday. Dry and mild conditions are expected for
the first half of the week. The chance for light rain will return
Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Made some adjustments to the cloud cover for today. Much of the
region is only seeing very thin cirrus as mid level moisture tops
the ridge of high pressure. These clouds will thicken a bit during
the day and satellite is already showing some of this thicker cloud
cover push east of the Cascades this morning. Much of the southern
portion of the region will see filtered sunshine from around Moses
Lake to Kellogg and points southward. Clouds will likely increase
and thicken points northward. Very light precip will also be
possible, but will mainly be in the form of some sprinkles/flurries
for the mountains. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Shallow fog around the Spokane Area will result in VLIFR
conditions through 19Z, but should then quickly burn off for the
afternoon. High pressure will continue to build in today. High and
mid level clouds will filter in over the ridge with cigs generally
remaining above 8 kft agl. These clouds will thin out tonight with
more shallow fog possible around the region, especially near water
bodies and in deep valleys (including KSFF). /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  27  44  30  47  31 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  40  28  46  30  47  31 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Pullman        42  31  51  32  53  34 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       49  35  53  34  54  37 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       37  25  41  26  41  29 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      37  27  42  29  43  31 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Kellogg        37  28  45  29  48  32 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     43  28  44  29  46  31 /  10   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      40  30  40  30  41  31 /  10   0   0   0   0  10
Omak           36  25  39  26  39  28 /  10  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 071752
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
952 AM PST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak upper level disturbance will produce clouds over the Inland
Northwest today. Strong high pressure will develop tonight and
persist into Wednesday. Dry and mild conditions are expected for
the first half of the week. The chance for light rain will return
Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Made some adjustments to the cloud cover for today. Much of the
region is only seeing very thin cirrus as mid level moisture tops
the ridge of high pressure. These clouds will thicken a bit during
the day and satellite is already showing some of this thicker cloud
cover push east of the Cascades this morning. Much of the southern
portion of the region will see filtered sunshine from around Moses
Lake to Kellogg and points southward. Clouds will likely increase
and thicken points northward. Very light precip will also be
possible, but will mainly be in the form of some sprinkles/flurries
for the mountains. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Shallow fog around the Spokane Area will result in VLIFR
conditions through 19Z, but should then quickly burn off for the
afternoon. High pressure will continue to build in today. High and
mid level clouds will filter in over the ridge with cigs generally
remaining above 8 kft agl. These clouds will thin out tonight with
more shallow fog possible around the region, especially near water
bodies and in deep valleys (including KSFF). /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  27  44  30  47  31 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  40  28  46  30  47  31 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Pullman        42  31  51  32  53  34 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       49  35  53  34  54  37 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       37  25  41  26  41  29 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      37  27  42  29  43  31 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Kellogg        37  28  45  29  48  32 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     43  28  44  29  46  31 /  10   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      40  30  40  30  41  31 /  10   0   0   0   0  10
Omak           36  25  39  26  39  28 /  10  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSEW 071714
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
915 AM PST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CLIP THE COAST AND NORTH PART
TODAY. EXPECT DRY AND MILD WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
BY WEDNESDAY OPENING THE DOOR TO MORE FRONTAL SYSTEMS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK WARM FRONT IS CLIPPING WESTERN WA THIS MORNING
FOR CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF RAIN ON THE COAST AND NORTH PART.
THE FRONT WILL LIFT FARTHER NORTH INTO B.C. THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT RAIN TAPERING OFF. POPS WERE UPDATED THIS MORNING NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STALLS OVER THE PAC NW. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. THE GFS HAS A WEAK
FRONT REACHING THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
KEEP THIS FEATURE OFFSHORE. THE GFS HOLDS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN BRING THE
FRONT INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE CANADIAN AND THE ECMWF BUILD A
WEAK RIDGE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS IS
FURTHER EAST WITH THIS FEATURE ALLOWING ANOTHER FRONT TO APPROACH
THE COAST. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ON FRIDAY WITH A
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH ON SATURDAY. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS THE HIGHEST POPS ON FRIDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE MODEL INCONSISTENCIES WILL STAY
WITH THIS IDEA FOR THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. FELTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY
FOR WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A WMFNT MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO MAINLY THE COAST TODAY.
THERE WERE AREAS MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FROM ABOUT KSHN TO KOLM SWD THIS
MORNING. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

KSEA...VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MARINE... LOWER PRES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH A 1040 MB HIGH E
OF THE CASCADES WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE
SURFACE HIGH E OF THE CASCADES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL
     WATERS AND THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 071714
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
915 AM PST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CLIP THE COAST AND NORTH PART
TODAY. EXPECT DRY AND MILD WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
BY WEDNESDAY OPENING THE DOOR TO MORE FRONTAL SYSTEMS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK WARM FRONT IS CLIPPING WESTERN WA THIS MORNING
FOR CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF RAIN ON THE COAST AND NORTH PART.
THE FRONT WILL LIFT FARTHER NORTH INTO B.C. THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT RAIN TAPERING OFF. POPS WERE UPDATED THIS MORNING NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STALLS OVER THE PAC NW. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. THE GFS HAS A WEAK
FRONT REACHING THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
KEEP THIS FEATURE OFFSHORE. THE GFS HOLDS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN BRING THE
FRONT INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE CANADIAN AND THE ECMWF BUILD A
WEAK RIDGE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS IS
FURTHER EAST WITH THIS FEATURE ALLOWING ANOTHER FRONT TO APPROACH
THE COAST. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ON FRIDAY WITH A
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH ON SATURDAY. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS THE HIGHEST POPS ON FRIDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE MODEL INCONSISTENCIES WILL STAY
WITH THIS IDEA FOR THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. FELTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY
FOR WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A WMFNT MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO MAINLY THE COAST TODAY.
THERE WERE AREAS MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FROM ABOUT KSHN TO KOLM SWD THIS
MORNING. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

KSEA...VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MARINE... LOWER PRES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH A 1040 MB HIGH E
OF THE CASCADES WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE
SURFACE HIGH E OF THE CASCADES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL
     WATERS AND THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KSEW 071714
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
915 AM PST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CLIP THE COAST AND NORTH PART
TODAY. EXPECT DRY AND MILD WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
BY WEDNESDAY OPENING THE DOOR TO MORE FRONTAL SYSTEMS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK WARM FRONT IS CLIPPING WESTERN WA THIS MORNING
FOR CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF RAIN ON THE COAST AND NORTH PART.
THE FRONT WILL LIFT FARTHER NORTH INTO B.C. THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT RAIN TAPERING OFF. POPS WERE UPDATED THIS MORNING NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STALLS OVER THE PAC NW. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. THE GFS HAS A WEAK
FRONT REACHING THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
KEEP THIS FEATURE OFFSHORE. THE GFS HOLDS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN BRING THE
FRONT INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE CANADIAN AND THE ECMWF BUILD A
WEAK RIDGE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS IS
FURTHER EAST WITH THIS FEATURE ALLOWING ANOTHER FRONT TO APPROACH
THE COAST. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ON FRIDAY WITH A
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH ON SATURDAY. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS THE HIGHEST POPS ON FRIDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE MODEL INCONSISTENCIES WILL STAY
WITH THIS IDEA FOR THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. FELTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY
FOR WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A WMFNT MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO MAINLY THE COAST TODAY.
THERE WERE AREAS MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FROM ABOUT KSHN TO KOLM SWD THIS
MORNING. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

KSEA...VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MARINE... LOWER PRES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH A 1040 MB HIGH E
OF THE CASCADES WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE
SURFACE HIGH E OF THE CASCADES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL
     WATERS AND THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KOTX 071207
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
407 AM PST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak upper level disturbance will produce clouds over the Inland
Northwest today. Strong high pressure will develop tonight and
persist into Wednesday. Dry and mild conditions are expected for
the first half of the week. The chance for light rain will return
Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and Tonight: A weak upper level disturbance will over-top a
high pressure ridge today. Bands of clouds will accompany this
weak feature. As of 230 AM, the NWS radar mosaic was detecting
rain showers off the coast of the Olympic Peninsula, and by mid
to late morning some of this light precipitation should reach the
northern Cascades. On whole, precipitation should be weakening it
over-tops the 500mb ridge. There shouldn`t be much left of the
showers after crossing the Cascades. Some flurries and sprinkles
have been added to the forecast for the counties along the
Canadian border. Elsewhere, light winds and increasing clouds will
hinder warming this afternoon. High temperatures have been lowered
a bit. Skies should clear this evening from west to east as the
upper level disturbance slides into Montana. Strong mid-level
warming under our building ridge will produce a strong temperature
inversion, especially over central Washington. Mountains will
remain relatively mild with cold air settling into the valleys.
There is a good chance that we will see more fog tonight in the
valleys of northeast and north central Washington with the
strengthening inversion and surface dewpoints slowly recovering
following Friday night`s strong front.

Monday and Tuesday: The temperature forecast Monday and Tuesday
will be tough. Warming aloft will produce a very strong
temperature inversion. Mountain ridges and mid-slopes will have
the potential to be in the 40s and low 50s Monday and Tuesday
while lowlands could remain in the 30s and low 40s. A light
easterly pressure gradient will produce enough mixing to keep the
southern Idaho Panhandle and the Palouse free of fog and low
clouds. Similar weather patterns this time of year produce high
temperatures in the 50s for places like St Maries, Pullman,
Lewiston, Pomeroy, and LaCrosse. Afternoon temperatures in the
upper 40s to near 50 aren`t out of the question for Spokane, Coeur
d`Alene, Davenport, and Moses Lake. The presence of fog (and how
long it lingers Monday and Tuesday) will determine how warm
temperatures get. /GKoch

Wednesday through Saturday: Models are in good agreement of an
upper ridge moving east of the area for mid week as an upper
trough slowly advances towards the area from the west. Overall
models have trended slower with the trough with generally dry
weather expected Wednesday through Friday. Although a weak wave
tracking across could produce a few showers Wednesday night into
Thursday. With the upper ridge axis to the east and an upper
trough to the west of the region...this will place the Inland NW
in a mild southwest flow through Friday with above normal
temperatures. Late Friday into Saturday the latest 00z runs of the
GFS and ECMWF track the upper trough inland with a cold front
passage. This will likely bring a round of light to locally
moderate precipitation but with some timing uncertainty POP`s were
limited to chance. Snow levels come down behind the cold front and
could see snow showers returning to the mountains. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Spokane, Coeur d`Alene, and Sandpoint will experience a
bit of shallow fog this morning. At this time, it doesn`t appear
that the fog will linger much past 16z-17z since it is relatively
patchy and our air mass is quite mild for this time of the season.
Bands of mid and high clouds will spill over a high pressure ridge
today with cloud bases mainly at or above 10 thousand feet.
Clearing skies this evening will promote more radiation fog over
the valleys of far north Idaho as well as northeast and north
central Washington. /GKoch


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  27  44  30  47  31 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  40  28  46  30  47  31 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Pullman        42  31  51  32  53  34 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       49  35  53  34  54  37 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       37  25  41  26  41  29 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      37  27  42  29  43  31 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Kellogg        37  28  45  29  48  32 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     43  28  44  29  46  31 /  10   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      40  30  40  30  41  31 /  10   0   0   0   0  10
Omak           36  25  39  26  39  28 /  10  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 071207
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
407 AM PST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak upper level disturbance will produce clouds over the Inland
Northwest today. Strong high pressure will develop tonight and
persist into Wednesday. Dry and mild conditions are expected for
the first half of the week. The chance for light rain will return
Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and Tonight: A weak upper level disturbance will over-top a
high pressure ridge today. Bands of clouds will accompany this
weak feature. As of 230 AM, the NWS radar mosaic was detecting
rain showers off the coast of the Olympic Peninsula, and by mid
to late morning some of this light precipitation should reach the
northern Cascades. On whole, precipitation should be weakening it
over-tops the 500mb ridge. There shouldn`t be much left of the
showers after crossing the Cascades. Some flurries and sprinkles
have been added to the forecast for the counties along the
Canadian border. Elsewhere, light winds and increasing clouds will
hinder warming this afternoon. High temperatures have been lowered
a bit. Skies should clear this evening from west to east as the
upper level disturbance slides into Montana. Strong mid-level
warming under our building ridge will produce a strong temperature
inversion, especially over central Washington. Mountains will
remain relatively mild with cold air settling into the valleys.
There is a good chance that we will see more fog tonight in the
valleys of northeast and north central Washington with the
strengthening inversion and surface dewpoints slowly recovering
following Friday night`s strong front.

Monday and Tuesday: The temperature forecast Monday and Tuesday
will be tough. Warming aloft will produce a very strong
temperature inversion. Mountain ridges and mid-slopes will have
the potential to be in the 40s and low 50s Monday and Tuesday
while lowlands could remain in the 30s and low 40s. A light
easterly pressure gradient will produce enough mixing to keep the
southern Idaho Panhandle and the Palouse free of fog and low
clouds. Similar weather patterns this time of year produce high
temperatures in the 50s for places like St Maries, Pullman,
Lewiston, Pomeroy, and LaCrosse. Afternoon temperatures in the
upper 40s to near 50 aren`t out of the question for Spokane, Coeur
d`Alene, Davenport, and Moses Lake. The presence of fog (and how
long it lingers Monday and Tuesday) will determine how warm
temperatures get. /GKoch

Wednesday through Saturday: Models are in good agreement of an
upper ridge moving east of the area for mid week as an upper
trough slowly advances towards the area from the west. Overall
models have trended slower with the trough with generally dry
weather expected Wednesday through Friday. Although a weak wave
tracking across could produce a few showers Wednesday night into
Thursday. With the upper ridge axis to the east and an upper
trough to the west of the region...this will place the Inland NW
in a mild southwest flow through Friday with above normal
temperatures. Late Friday into Saturday the latest 00z runs of the
GFS and ECMWF track the upper trough inland with a cold front
passage. This will likely bring a round of light to locally
moderate precipitation but with some timing uncertainty POP`s were
limited to chance. Snow levels come down behind the cold front and
could see snow showers returning to the mountains. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Spokane, Coeur d`Alene, and Sandpoint will experience a
bit of shallow fog this morning. At this time, it doesn`t appear
that the fog will linger much past 16z-17z since it is relatively
patchy and our air mass is quite mild for this time of the season.
Bands of mid and high clouds will spill over a high pressure ridge
today with cloud bases mainly at or above 10 thousand feet.
Clearing skies this evening will promote more radiation fog over
the valleys of far north Idaho as well as northeast and north
central Washington. /GKoch


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  27  44  30  47  31 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  40  28  46  30  47  31 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Pullman        42  31  51  32  53  34 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       49  35  53  34  54  37 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       37  25  41  26  41  29 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      37  27  42  29  43  31 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Kellogg        37  28  45  29  48  32 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     43  28  44  29  46  31 /  10   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      40  30  40  30  41  31 /  10   0   0   0   0  10
Omak           36  25  39  26  39  28 /  10  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 071207
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
407 AM PST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak upper level disturbance will produce clouds over the Inland
Northwest today. Strong high pressure will develop tonight and
persist into Wednesday. Dry and mild conditions are expected for
the first half of the week. The chance for light rain will return
Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and Tonight: A weak upper level disturbance will over-top a
high pressure ridge today. Bands of clouds will accompany this
weak feature. As of 230 AM, the NWS radar mosaic was detecting
rain showers off the coast of the Olympic Peninsula, and by mid
to late morning some of this light precipitation should reach the
northern Cascades. On whole, precipitation should be weakening it
over-tops the 500mb ridge. There shouldn`t be much left of the
showers after crossing the Cascades. Some flurries and sprinkles
have been added to the forecast for the counties along the
Canadian border. Elsewhere, light winds and increasing clouds will
hinder warming this afternoon. High temperatures have been lowered
a bit. Skies should clear this evening from west to east as the
upper level disturbance slides into Montana. Strong mid-level
warming under our building ridge will produce a strong temperature
inversion, especially over central Washington. Mountains will
remain relatively mild with cold air settling into the valleys.
There is a good chance that we will see more fog tonight in the
valleys of northeast and north central Washington with the
strengthening inversion and surface dewpoints slowly recovering
following Friday night`s strong front.

Monday and Tuesday: The temperature forecast Monday and Tuesday
will be tough. Warming aloft will produce a very strong
temperature inversion. Mountain ridges and mid-slopes will have
the potential to be in the 40s and low 50s Monday and Tuesday
while lowlands could remain in the 30s and low 40s. A light
easterly pressure gradient will produce enough mixing to keep the
southern Idaho Panhandle and the Palouse free of fog and low
clouds. Similar weather patterns this time of year produce high
temperatures in the 50s for places like St Maries, Pullman,
Lewiston, Pomeroy, and LaCrosse. Afternoon temperatures in the
upper 40s to near 50 aren`t out of the question for Spokane, Coeur
d`Alene, Davenport, and Moses Lake. The presence of fog (and how
long it lingers Monday and Tuesday) will determine how warm
temperatures get. /GKoch

Wednesday through Saturday: Models are in good agreement of an
upper ridge moving east of the area for mid week as an upper
trough slowly advances towards the area from the west. Overall
models have trended slower with the trough with generally dry
weather expected Wednesday through Friday. Although a weak wave
tracking across could produce a few showers Wednesday night into
Thursday. With the upper ridge axis to the east and an upper
trough to the west of the region...this will place the Inland NW
in a mild southwest flow through Friday with above normal
temperatures. Late Friday into Saturday the latest 00z runs of the
GFS and ECMWF track the upper trough inland with a cold front
passage. This will likely bring a round of light to locally
moderate precipitation but with some timing uncertainty POP`s were
limited to chance. Snow levels come down behind the cold front and
could see snow showers returning to the mountains. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Spokane, Coeur d`Alene, and Sandpoint will experience a
bit of shallow fog this morning. At this time, it doesn`t appear
that the fog will linger much past 16z-17z since it is relatively
patchy and our air mass is quite mild for this time of the season.
Bands of mid and high clouds will spill over a high pressure ridge
today with cloud bases mainly at or above 10 thousand feet.
Clearing skies this evening will promote more radiation fog over
the valleys of far north Idaho as well as northeast and north
central Washington. /GKoch


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  27  44  30  47  31 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  40  28  46  30  47  31 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Pullman        42  31  51  32  53  34 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       49  35  53  34  54  37 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       37  25  41  26  41  29 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      37  27  42  29  43  31 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Kellogg        37  28  45  29  48  32 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     43  28  44  29  46  31 /  10   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      40  30  40  30  41  31 /  10   0   0   0   0  10
Omak           36  25  39  26  39  28 /  10  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 071137 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
318 AM PST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CLIP THE COAST AND NORTH CASCADES
TODAY. EXPECT DRY AND MILD WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
BY WEDNESDAY OPENING THE DOOR TO MORE FRONTAL SYSTEMS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
ALONG THE COAST WITH A WARM FRONT OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING.
HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT BUT THERE
STILL IS A FEW HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER AT 3 AM. WITH SOME BREAKS
IN THE HIGH CLOUD COVER FOG FORMED ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
ABOUT TACOMA AND CHEHALIS WITH VISIBILITIES 1 MILE OR LESS.
TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM WERE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE DAY IS HOW FAST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ALONG THE COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES WARMING OFF OF THE COAST WHICH GIVES THE EDGE TO THE
BUILDING RIDGE POSITION BUT THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE WARM
FRONT WON`T REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING. 00Z MODEL
RUNS ARE ALL VERY CONSISTENT WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS NEAR AT LEAST IN
THE UPPER 570 DMS BY 00Z MONDAY. DOPPLER RADAR STARTING TO PICK
UP SOME ECHOES IN THE LAST HOUR OFF THE COAST. WILL UP THE POPS
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE NORTH COAST WITH JUST CHANCE POPS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE COAST AND OVER THE NORTH CASCADES. EVEN
WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE SO NOT MUCH SUNSHINE IF ANY AT ALL TODAY. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH THE WARMER LOCATIONS NEAR
THE LEWIS/COWLITZ COUNTY LINE.

RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT PUSHING THE WARM
FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. SURFACE GRADIENTS GOING OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP RESTRICT FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH ONLY THE USUAL FOG
PRONE AREAS LIKE THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR FOGGING IN BY MONDAY
MORNING. EVEN THE LOCATIONS THAT DO GET SOME FOG WILL SEE SUNSHINE
BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARMING CONSIDERABLY ON MONDAY
WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR PLUS 14C BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH THE WARMER LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST.
RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND OVER THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BUT THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES. PERSISTENCE
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LACK OF
CONSISTENCY IN THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. THE GFS HAS A WEAK FRONT
REACHING THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP
THIS FEATURE OFFSHORE. THE GFS HOLDS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN BRING THE
FRONT INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE CANADIAN AND THE ECMWF BUILD A
WEAK RIDGE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS IS
FURTHER EAST WITH THIS FEATURE ALLOWING ANOTHER FRONT TO APPROACH
THE COAST. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ON FRIDAY WITH A
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH ON SATURDAY. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS THE HIGHEST POPS ON FRIDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE MODEL INCONSISTENCIES WILL
STAY WITH THIS IDEA FOR THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR FOR MOST TERMINALS IN WESTERN
WASHINGTON...THE EXCEPTION BEING THOSE PRONE TO FOG...SUCH AS
KOLM...WHERE VISIBILITIES ARE LIMITED AND CIGS ARE IFR OR LOWER.
THESE AREAS OF FOG LIKELY TO LINGER ON INTO MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE LIFTING. UPPER LEVEL WINDS REMAINING NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE MORNING...TURNING WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD.

INCOMING MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON MAY BRING CIGS DOWN TO MVFR IN SOME
LOCATIONS. MODELS HINTING AT A THREAT FOR SOME PRECIP TO GO WITH
THOSE FALLING CIGS...BUT LOOKS INCREDIBLY SCATTERED AND QUICK MOVING
AT BEST. VCSH IS PRESENT IN MOST TAF SITES TO TAKE THIS INTO
ACCOUNT...BUT GIVEN THE QUICK MOVING/LIGHT AMOUNT NATURE OF ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES EMERGE...NOT SURE IF IT REALLY MERITS ANY
FURTHER MENTION THAN THAT. SMR

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
MORNING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN BY THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE
TO MOISTURE AND THE TAIL END OF A WARM FRONT BRUSHING BY.
CIGS OF 020-040 SHOULD BE EXPECTED FROM 18Z THIS MORNING TO ABOUT
03Z THIS EVNG...WITH CLEARING EXPECTED AFTERWARD.SMR

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK AHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO VARYING DEGREES OF OFFSHORE FLOW
THROUGH AT LEAST TUE NGT.

THE TAIL END OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY...LEADING TO INCREASING E/SE WIND FOR THE COAST AND WEST
ENTRANCE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR THE INCREASED WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT. SMR

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO
     60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
     SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
     TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-WEST
     ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KSEW 071137 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
318 AM PST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CLIP THE COAST AND NORTH CASCADES
TODAY. EXPECT DRY AND MILD WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
BY WEDNESDAY OPENING THE DOOR TO MORE FRONTAL SYSTEMS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
ALONG THE COAST WITH A WARM FRONT OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING.
HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT BUT THERE
STILL IS A FEW HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER AT 3 AM. WITH SOME BREAKS
IN THE HIGH CLOUD COVER FOG FORMED ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
ABOUT TACOMA AND CHEHALIS WITH VISIBILITIES 1 MILE OR LESS.
TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM WERE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE DAY IS HOW FAST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ALONG THE COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES WARMING OFF OF THE COAST WHICH GIVES THE EDGE TO THE
BUILDING RIDGE POSITION BUT THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE WARM
FRONT WON`T REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING. 00Z MODEL
RUNS ARE ALL VERY CONSISTENT WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS NEAR AT LEAST IN
THE UPPER 570 DMS BY 00Z MONDAY. DOPPLER RADAR STARTING TO PICK
UP SOME ECHOES IN THE LAST HOUR OFF THE COAST. WILL UP THE POPS
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE NORTH COAST WITH JUST CHANCE POPS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE COAST AND OVER THE NORTH CASCADES. EVEN
WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE SO NOT MUCH SUNSHINE IF ANY AT ALL TODAY. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH THE WARMER LOCATIONS NEAR
THE LEWIS/COWLITZ COUNTY LINE.

RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT PUSHING THE WARM
FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. SURFACE GRADIENTS GOING OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP RESTRICT FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH ONLY THE USUAL FOG
PRONE AREAS LIKE THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR FOGGING IN BY MONDAY
MORNING. EVEN THE LOCATIONS THAT DO GET SOME FOG WILL SEE SUNSHINE
BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARMING CONSIDERABLY ON MONDAY
WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR PLUS 14C BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH THE WARMER LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST.
RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND OVER THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BUT THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES. PERSISTENCE
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LACK OF
CONSISTENCY IN THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. THE GFS HAS A WEAK FRONT
REACHING THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP
THIS FEATURE OFFSHORE. THE GFS HOLDS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN BRING THE
FRONT INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE CANADIAN AND THE ECMWF BUILD A
WEAK RIDGE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS IS
FURTHER EAST WITH THIS FEATURE ALLOWING ANOTHER FRONT TO APPROACH
THE COAST. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ON FRIDAY WITH A
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH ON SATURDAY. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS THE HIGHEST POPS ON FRIDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE MODEL INCONSISTENCIES WILL
STAY WITH THIS IDEA FOR THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR FOR MOST TERMINALS IN WESTERN
WASHINGTON...THE EXCEPTION BEING THOSE PRONE TO FOG...SUCH AS
KOLM...WHERE VISIBILITIES ARE LIMITED AND CIGS ARE IFR OR LOWER.
THESE AREAS OF FOG LIKELY TO LINGER ON INTO MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE LIFTING. UPPER LEVEL WINDS REMAINING NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE MORNING...TURNING WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD.

INCOMING MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON MAY BRING CIGS DOWN TO MVFR IN SOME
LOCATIONS. MODELS HINTING AT A THREAT FOR SOME PRECIP TO GO WITH
THOSE FALLING CIGS...BUT LOOKS INCREDIBLY SCATTERED AND QUICK MOVING
AT BEST. VCSH IS PRESENT IN MOST TAF SITES TO TAKE THIS INTO
ACCOUNT...BUT GIVEN THE QUICK MOVING/LIGHT AMOUNT NATURE OF ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES EMERGE...NOT SURE IF IT REALLY MERITS ANY
FURTHER MENTION THAN THAT. SMR

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
MORNING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN BY THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE
TO MOISTURE AND THE TAIL END OF A WARM FRONT BRUSHING BY.
CIGS OF 020-040 SHOULD BE EXPECTED FROM 18Z THIS MORNING TO ABOUT
03Z THIS EVNG...WITH CLEARING EXPECTED AFTERWARD.SMR

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK AHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO VARYING DEGREES OF OFFSHORE FLOW
THROUGH AT LEAST TUE NGT.

THE TAIL END OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY...LEADING TO INCREASING E/SE WIND FOR THE COAST AND WEST
ENTRANCE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR THE INCREASED WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT. SMR

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO
     60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
     SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
     TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-WEST
     ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 071118
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
318 AM PST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CLIP THE COAST AND NORTH CASCADES
TODAY. EXPECT DRY AND MILD WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
BY WEDNESDAY OPENING THE DOOR TO MORE FRONTAL SYSTEMS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
ALONG THE COAST WITH A WARM FRONT OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING.
HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT BUT THERE
STILL IS A FEW HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER AT 3 AM. WITH SOME BREAKS
IN THE HIGH CLOUD COVER FOG FORMED ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
ABOUT TACOMA AND CHEHALIS WITH VISIBILITIES 1 MILE OR LESS.
TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM WERE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE DAY IS HOW FAST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ALONG THE COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES WARMING OFF OF THE COAST WHICH GIVES THE EDGE TO THE
BUILDING RIDGE POSITION BUT THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE WARM
FRONT WON`T REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING. 00Z MODEL
RUNS ARE ALL VERY CONSISTENT WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS NEAR AT LEAST IN
THE UPPER 570 DMS BY 00Z MONDAY. DOPPLER RADAR STARTING TO PICK
UP SOME ECHOES IN THE LAST HOUR OFF THE COAST. WILL UP THE POPS
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE NORTH COAST WITH JUST CHANCE POPS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE COAST AND OVER THE NORTH CASCADES. EVEN
WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE SO NOT MUCH SUNSHINE IF ANY AT ALL TODAY. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH THE WARMER LOCATIONS NEAR
THE LEWIS/COWLITZ COUNTY LINE.

RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT PUSHING THE WARM
FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. SURFACE GRADIENTS GOING OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP RESTRICT FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH ONLY THE USUAL FOG
PRONE AREAS LIKE THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR FOGGING IN BY MONDAY
MORNING. EVEN THE LOCATIONS THAT DO GET SOME FOG WILL SEE SUNSHINE
BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARMING CONSIDERABLY ON MONDAY
WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR PLUS 14C BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH THE WARMER LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST.
RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND OVER THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BUT THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES. PERSISTENCE
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LACK OF
CONSISTENCY IN THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. THE GFS HAS A WEAK FRONT
REACHING THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP
THIS FEATURE OFFSHORE. THE GFS HOLDS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN BRING THE
FRONT INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE CANADIAN AND THE ECMWF BUILD A
WEAK RIDGE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS IS
FURTHER EAST WITH THIS FEATURE ALLOWING ANOTHER FRONT TO APPROACH
THE COAST. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ON FRIDAY WITH A
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH ON SATURDAY. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS THE HIGHEST POPS ON FRIDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE MODEL INCONSISTENCIES WILL
STAY WITH THIS IDEA FOR THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR FOR MOST TERMINALS IN WESTERN
WASHINGTON...THE EXCEPTION BEING THOSE PRONE TO FOG...SUCH AS
KOLM...WHERE VISIBILITIES ARE LIMITED AND CIGS ARE IFR OR LOWER.
THESE AREAS OF FOG LIKELY TO LINGER ON INTO MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE LIFTING. UPPER LEVEL WINDS REMAINING NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE MORNING...TURNING WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD.

INCOMING MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON MAY BRING CIGS DOWN TO MVFR IN SOME
LOCATIONS. MODELS HINTING AT A THREAT FOR SOME PRECIP TO GO WITH
THOSE FALLING CIGS...BUT LOOKS INCREDIBLY SCATTERED AND QUICK MOVING
AT BEST. VCSH IS PRESENT IN MOST TAF SITES TO TAKE THIS INTO
ACCOUNT...BUT GIVEN THE QUICK MOVING/LIGHT AMOUNT NATURE OF ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES EMERGE...NOT SURE IF IT REALLY MERITS ANY
FURTHER MENTION THAN THAT. SMR

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
MORNING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN BY THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE
TO MOISTURE AND THE TAIL END OF A WARM FRONT BRUSHING BY.
CIGS OF 020-040 SHOULD BE EXPECTED FROM 18Z THIS MORNING TO ABOUT
03Z THIS EVNG...WITH CLEARING EXPECTED AFTERWARD.SMR

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK AHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO VARYING DEGREES OF OFFSHORE FLOW
THROUGH AT LEAST TUE NGT.

THE TAIL END OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY...LEADING TO INCREASING E/SE WIND FOR THE COAST AND WEST
ENTRANCE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR THE INCREASED WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT. SMR

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO
     60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
     SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
     TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-WEST
     ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KSEW 071118
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
318 AM PST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CLIP THE COAST AND NORTH CASCADES
TODAY. EXPECT DRY AND MILD WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
BY WEDNESDAY OPENING THE DOOR TO MORE FRONTAL SYSTEMS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
ALONG THE COAST WITH A WARM FRONT OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING.
HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT BUT THERE
STILL IS A FEW HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER AT 3 AM. WITH SOME BREAKS
IN THE HIGH CLOUD COVER FOG FORMED ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
ABOUT TACOMA AND CHEHALIS WITH VISIBILITIES 1 MILE OR LESS.
TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM WERE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE DAY IS HOW FAST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ALONG THE COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES WARMING OFF OF THE COAST WHICH GIVES THE EDGE TO THE
BUILDING RIDGE POSITION BUT THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE WARM
FRONT WON`T REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING. 00Z MODEL
RUNS ARE ALL VERY CONSISTENT WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS NEAR AT LEAST IN
THE UPPER 570 DMS BY 00Z MONDAY. DOPPLER RADAR STARTING TO PICK
UP SOME ECHOES IN THE LAST HOUR OFF THE COAST. WILL UP THE POPS
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE NORTH COAST WITH JUST CHANCE POPS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE COAST AND OVER THE NORTH CASCADES. EVEN
WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE SO NOT MUCH SUNSHINE IF ANY AT ALL TODAY. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH THE WARMER LOCATIONS NEAR
THE LEWIS/COWLITZ COUNTY LINE.

RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT PUSHING THE WARM
FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. SURFACE GRADIENTS GOING OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP RESTRICT FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH ONLY THE USUAL FOG
PRONE AREAS LIKE THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR FOGGING IN BY MONDAY
MORNING. EVEN THE LOCATIONS THAT DO GET SOME FOG WILL SEE SUNSHINE
BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARMING CONSIDERABLY ON MONDAY
WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR PLUS 14C BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH THE WARMER LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST.
RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND OVER THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BUT THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES. PERSISTENCE
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LACK OF
CONSISTENCY IN THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. THE GFS HAS A WEAK FRONT
REACHING THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP
THIS FEATURE OFFSHORE. THE GFS HOLDS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN BRING THE
FRONT INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE CANADIAN AND THE ECMWF BUILD A
WEAK RIDGE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS IS
FURTHER EAST WITH THIS FEATURE ALLOWING ANOTHER FRONT TO APPROACH
THE COAST. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ON FRIDAY WITH A
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH ON SATURDAY. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS THE HIGHEST POPS ON FRIDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE MODEL INCONSISTENCIES WILL
STAY WITH THIS IDEA FOR THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR FOR MOST TERMINALS IN WESTERN
WASHINGTON...THE EXCEPTION BEING THOSE PRONE TO FOG...SUCH AS
KOLM...WHERE VISIBILITIES ARE LIMITED AND CIGS ARE IFR OR LOWER.
THESE AREAS OF FOG LIKELY TO LINGER ON INTO MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE LIFTING. UPPER LEVEL WINDS REMAINING NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE MORNING...TURNING WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD.

INCOMING MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON MAY BRING CIGS DOWN TO MVFR IN SOME
LOCATIONS. MODELS HINTING AT A THREAT FOR SOME PRECIP TO GO WITH
THOSE FALLING CIGS...BUT LOOKS INCREDIBLY SCATTERED AND QUICK MOVING
AT BEST. VCSH IS PRESENT IN MOST TAF SITES TO TAKE THIS INTO
ACCOUNT...BUT GIVEN THE QUICK MOVING/LIGHT AMOUNT NATURE OF ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES EMERGE...NOT SURE IF IT REALLY MERITS ANY
FURTHER MENTION THAN THAT. SMR

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
MORNING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN BY THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE
TO MOISTURE AND THE TAIL END OF A WARM FRONT BRUSHING BY.
CIGS OF 020-040 SHOULD BE EXPECTED FROM 18Z THIS MORNING TO ABOUT
03Z THIS EVNG...WITH CLEARING EXPECTED AFTERWARD.SMR

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK AHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO VARYING DEGREES OF OFFSHORE FLOW
THROUGH AT LEAST TUE NGT.

THE TAIL END OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY...LEADING TO INCREASING E/SE WIND FOR THE COAST AND WEST
ENTRANCE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR THE INCREASED WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT. SMR

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO
     60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
     SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
     TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-WEST
     ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KOTX 071108
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
308 AM PST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak upper level disturbance will produce clouds over the Inland
Northwest today. Strong high pressure will develop tonight and
persist into Wednesday. Dry and mild conditions are expected for
the first half of the week. The chance for light rain will return
Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and Tonight: A weak upper level disturbance will over-top a
high pressure ridge today. Bands of clouds will accompany this
weak feature. As of 230 AM, the NWS radar mosaic was detecting
rain showers off the coast of the Olympic Peninsula, and by mid
to late morning some of this light precipitation should reach the
northern Cascades. On whole, precipitation should be weakening it
over-tops the 500mb ridge. There shouldn`t be much left of the
showers after crossing the Cascades. Some flurries and sprinkles
have been added to the forecast for the counties along the
Canadian border. Elsewhere, light winds and increasing clouds will
hinder warming this afternoon. High temperatures have been lowered
a bit. Skies should clear this evening from west to east as the
upper level disturbance slides into Montana. Strong mid-level
warming under our building ridge will produce a strong temperature
inversion, especially over central Washington. Mountains will
remain relatively mild with cold air settling into the valleys.
There is a good chance that we will see more fog tonight in the
valleys of northeast and north central Washington with the
strengthening inversion and surface dewpoints slowly recovering
following Friday night`s strong front.

Monday and Tuesday: The temperature forecast Monday and Tuesday
will be tough. Warming aloft will produce a very strong
temperature inversion. Mountain ridges and mid-slopes will have
the potential to be in the 40s and low 50s Monday and Tuesday
while lowlands could remain in the 30s and low 40s. A light
easterly pressure gradient will produce enough mixing to keep the
southern Idaho Panhandle and the Palouse free of fog and low
clouds. Similar weather patterns this time of year produce high
temperatures in the 50s for places like St Maries, Pullman,
Lewiston, Pomeroy, and LaCrosse. Afternoon temperatures in the
upper 40s to near 50 aren`t out of the question for Spokane, Coeur
d`Alene, Davenport, and Moses Lake. The presence of fog (and how
long it lingers Monday and Tuesday) will determine how warm
temperatures get. /GKoch

Wednesday through Saturday: Models are in good agreement of an
upper ridge moving east of the area for mid week as an upper
trough slowly advances towards the area from the west. Overall
models have trended slower with the trough with generally dry
weather expected Wednesday through Friday. Although a weak wave
tracking across could produce a few showers Wednesday night into
Thursday. With the upper ridge axis to the east and an upper
trough to the west of the region...this will place the Inland NW
in a mild southwest flow through Friday with above normal
temperatures. Late Friday into Saturday the latest 00z runs of the
GFS and ECMWF track the upper trough inland with a cold front
passage. This will likely bring a round of light to locally
moderate precipitation but with some timing uncertainty POP`s were
limited to chance. Snow levels come down behind the cold front and
could see snow showers returning to the mountains. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A building ridge aloft and weak high pressure building
over the region will create dry and benign conditions for the
next 24 hours. In spite of light northeast winds,
temperature/dewpoint spreads at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE are just 3 degrees
at 06Z and could lead to fog or low stratus overnight. Otherwise,
expect VFR conditions at remaining TAF sites through 06Z Monday.
/EK




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  27  44  30  47  31 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  40  28  46  30  47  31 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Pullman        42  31  51  32  53  34 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       49  35  53  34  54  37 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       37  25  41  26  41  29 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      37  27  42  29  43  31 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Kellogg        37  28  45  29  48  32 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     43  28  44  29  46  31 /  10   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      40  30  40  30  41  31 /  10   0   0   0   0  10
Omak           36  25  39  26  39  28 /  10  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 071108
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
308 AM PST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak upper level disturbance will produce clouds over the Inland
Northwest today. Strong high pressure will develop tonight and
persist into Wednesday. Dry and mild conditions are expected for
the first half of the week. The chance for light rain will return
Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and Tonight: A weak upper level disturbance will over-top a
high pressure ridge today. Bands of clouds will accompany this
weak feature. As of 230 AM, the NWS radar mosaic was detecting
rain showers off the coast of the Olympic Peninsula, and by mid
to late morning some of this light precipitation should reach the
northern Cascades. On whole, precipitation should be weakening it
over-tops the 500mb ridge. There shouldn`t be much left of the
showers after crossing the Cascades. Some flurries and sprinkles
have been added to the forecast for the counties along the
Canadian border. Elsewhere, light winds and increasing clouds will
hinder warming this afternoon. High temperatures have been lowered
a bit. Skies should clear this evening from west to east as the
upper level disturbance slides into Montana. Strong mid-level
warming under our building ridge will produce a strong temperature
inversion, especially over central Washington. Mountains will
remain relatively mild with cold air settling into the valleys.
There is a good chance that we will see more fog tonight in the
valleys of northeast and north central Washington with the
strengthening inversion and surface dewpoints slowly recovering
following Friday night`s strong front.

Monday and Tuesday: The temperature forecast Monday and Tuesday
will be tough. Warming aloft will produce a very strong
temperature inversion. Mountain ridges and mid-slopes will have
the potential to be in the 40s and low 50s Monday and Tuesday
while lowlands could remain in the 30s and low 40s. A light
easterly pressure gradient will produce enough mixing to keep the
southern Idaho Panhandle and the Palouse free of fog and low
clouds. Similar weather patterns this time of year produce high
temperatures in the 50s for places like St Maries, Pullman,
Lewiston, Pomeroy, and LaCrosse. Afternoon temperatures in the
upper 40s to near 50 aren`t out of the question for Spokane, Coeur
d`Alene, Davenport, and Moses Lake. The presence of fog (and how
long it lingers Monday and Tuesday) will determine how warm
temperatures get. /GKoch

Wednesday through Saturday: Models are in good agreement of an
upper ridge moving east of the area for mid week as an upper
trough slowly advances towards the area from the west. Overall
models have trended slower with the trough with generally dry
weather expected Wednesday through Friday. Although a weak wave
tracking across could produce a few showers Wednesday night into
Thursday. With the upper ridge axis to the east and an upper
trough to the west of the region...this will place the Inland NW
in a mild southwest flow through Friday with above normal
temperatures. Late Friday into Saturday the latest 00z runs of the
GFS and ECMWF track the upper trough inland with a cold front
passage. This will likely bring a round of light to locally
moderate precipitation but with some timing uncertainty POP`s were
limited to chance. Snow levels come down behind the cold front and
could see snow showers returning to the mountains. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A building ridge aloft and weak high pressure building
over the region will create dry and benign conditions for the
next 24 hours. In spite of light northeast winds,
temperature/dewpoint spreads at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE are just 3 degrees
at 06Z and could lead to fog or low stratus overnight. Otherwise,
expect VFR conditions at remaining TAF sites through 06Z Monday.
/EK




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  27  44  30  47  31 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  40  28  46  30  47  31 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Pullman        42  31  51  32  53  34 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       49  35  53  34  54  37 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       37  25  41  26  41  29 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      37  27  42  29  43  31 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Kellogg        37  28  45  29  48  32 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     43  28  44  29  46  31 /  10   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      40  30  40  30  41  31 /  10   0   0   0   0  10
Omak           36  25  39  26  39  28 /  10  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KPQR 071025
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
222 AM PST SUN FEB  7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER REGION. WILL SEE INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW LATER TONIGHT AND MON. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH
WED...THEN A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH THREAT OF RAIN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
WEAK WARM FRONT OFFSHORE WILL PIVOT UP AND ACROSS BRIT COLUMBIA AND
WASHINGTON TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRUSH THE SW WASHINGTON AND EXTREME
NW OREGON...WITH OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES N OF A TILLAMOOK TO PORTLAND
LINE THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS REGION THIS AM. THESE CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WITH MUCH LESS CLOUDS SUN NIGHT...SHOULD SEE
AREAS OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS REFORM OVER INTERIOR...MAINLY IN COWLITZ AND
WILLAMETTE VALLEYS. BUT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO KEEP COASTAL AREAS MOSTLY FOG FREE... AS WELL AS AREAS ALONG
COLUMBIA RIVER.

WITH RIDGE MORE STRONG OVER REGION ON MON AND TUE... SHOULD SEE
MILDER TEMPERATURES UNDER MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW.  MODELS SHOW 850 MB TEMPS RATHER WARM...RUNNING
AROUND 15 TO 18 DEG C. IF FULLY REALIZED...THIS COULD PUSH DAYTIME
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S OR LOWER 70S IN THE COASTAL STRIP...COAST
RANGE AND FOOTHILLS. BUT NOT FULLY CONVINCED...AS THINK MODELS
RUNNING BIT TOO WARM. WILL KEEP HIGHS FOR THOSE AREAS IN THE MID
60S. TEMPERATURES FURTHER INLAND MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S...BUT PROB
ONLY GETTING THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR AREAS WHERE FOG/LOW CLOUDS
PERSIST...SUCH AS IN FAR SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND POSSIBLY THE
COWLITZ VALLEY. WARMEST DAY LIKELY TO BE MONDAY...AS OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL WEAKEN ON TUE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
ON WED...OFFSHORE FLOW MUCH WEAKER. AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION IN
THE AFTERNOON...WITH MINOR THREAT OF RAIN ON THE COAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THREAT OF RAIN LIKELY TO INCREASE WED EVENING AS REMAINS
OF THE FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE.  AFTERWARDS...WILL SEE A SERIES OF
SYSTEMS THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND THAT WILL
BRING AN CHANCE OF RAIN AT TIMES TO REGION AT TIMES.
&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS MAINLY MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR THIS
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
TO VFR GRADUALLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW
BEGINS TO INCREASE. THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY MON MORNING IN
THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTS 25 TO
35 KT NEAR THE WEST END OF THE GORGE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND
18Z. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF
THE REGION. VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH MON MORNING AS OFFSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS. PYLE
&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
MORNING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PERIOD OF 20 TO 25 KT
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. AN OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS LATER SUNDAY
AND CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. ANOTHER WARM FRONT IS MODELED
TO BRING INCREASING S WIND AGAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW 10 FT THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BACK ABOVE 10 FT FOR MON AND MON NIGHT BEFORE RELAXING A BIT
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF LARGE AND LONGER
PERIOD WEST SWELLS LOOK TO BRING SEAS WELL INTO THE TEENS LATE
NEXT WEEK. PYLE
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

WA...NONE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS TODYA ON OUTER NORTH COASTAL
 WATERS...OR FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD AND
 10 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
 CONDITIONS UNTIL 6 AM TODAY...AND AGAIN 2 PM TO 6 PM
 TODAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 070528
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
928 PM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest Sunday
bringing dry weather and light winds. Dry and mild conditions are
expected for the first half of the week. The chance for light
rain will return Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Main purpose of the evening update was to lower min temperatures
and sky cover to account for recent trends in observations. Cloud
cover has shifted to the south, leaving most of the forecast area
under clear skies. This, along with light winds, has allowed for
optimal radiational cooling with some of the northern valleys
cooling 10 degrees in the hour after sunset. Omak and Republic
have already fallen to the mid 20s as of 10 pm. At this rate,
they may reach the upper teens before high clouds rolling through
the offshore ridge move overhead. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A building ridge aloft and weak high pressure building
over the region will create dry and benign conditions for the
next 24 hours. In spite of light northeast winds,
temperature/dewpoint spreads at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE are just 3 degrees
at 06Z and could lead to fog or low stratus overnight. Otherwise,
expect VFR conditions at remaining TAF sites through 06Z Monday.
/EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        27  42  30  45  31  46 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  26  42  31  46  32  47 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Pullman        28  46  34  51  35  53 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       32  52  37  55  36  56 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Colville       27  37  30  41  31  43 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      27  38  30  41  32  44 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        25  39  31  45  32  48 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     29  44  29  45  31  47 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      28  39  30  40  31  42 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           20  35  29  38  29  40 /   0  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 070454
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
854 PM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CLIP THE COAST AND NORTH CASCADES
ON SUNDAY. EXPECT DRY AND MILD WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
BY WEDNESDAY OPENING THE DOOR TO MORE FRONTAL SYSTEMS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SKIES HAVE CLEARED A LITTLE THIS EVENING WHICH HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S MANY AREAS WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG ALREADY FOR THE SOUTH SOUND AND RIVER VALLEYS.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH A
WARM FRONT CLIPPING THE REGION FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN COAST AND
NORTH. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH AND HOW WIDESPREAD THIS RAIN WILL
BE. GIVEN THE HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW IT SEEMS LIKE IT SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN EVENT BUT
THE 00Z GFS AND NAM INSIST A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER
MOST OF THE AREA FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND MIDDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY FOR DRY
AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY ON TUESDAY
BUT IT WILL BE SHIFTING INLAND...OPENING THE DOOR FOR A FEW MORE
CLOUDS AND A LITTLE COOLING. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
SHIFT FARTHER INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS OVER
THE NE PAC. A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT MODELS ARE BACKING OFF SLIGHTLY ON THIS SYSTEM. RAIN
IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. 33

&&

.AVIATION...SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS OUT THERE...WITH THE THICKEST
CONCENTRATION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...MAINLY SOUTH
OF A KSEA-KHQM LINE. UPPER LEVEL WINDS REMAINING NORTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES MOVING EASTWARD...THEN
TURNING WESTERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS RIDGE AXIS ENTERS THE AREA.

LOWER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AS EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
CONTINUE...THUS ALLOWING CIGS TO REMAIN VFR INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
INCOMING MOISTURE HOWEVER MAY BRING CIGS DOWN TO MVFR IN SOME
LOCATIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HINTING AT A THREAT FOR SOME
PRECIP TO GO WITH THOSE FALLING CIGS...BUT LOOKS INCREDIBLY
SCATTERED AND QUICK MOVING AT BEST. THIS IS PRESENT IN INHERITED
TAFS...BUT MAY WARRANT RE-EVALUATION FOR 06Z ISSUANCE...PARTICULARLY
DUE TO A FULL 24 HOUR PERIOD OF DRYING AT LOWER LEVELS. SMR

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN SUNDAY IN
RESPONSE TO MOISTURE AND THE TAIL END OF A WARM FRONT BRUSHING BY.
CIGS OF 020-040 SHOULD BE EXPECTED FROM 18Z SUN MORNING TO ABOUT 03Z
SUN EVNG. CLEARING AFTERWARD ON SUN EVNG. SMR/HANER

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT AND
PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO VARYING
DEGREES OF OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST TUE NGT.

THE TAIL END OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...LEADING TO INCREASING E/SE WIND FOR THE
COAST AND WEST ENTRANCE. HAVE HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
STARTING LATER TONIGHT FOR THE INCREASE IN WIND.

HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AND WILL
FALL BELOW CRITERIA BY 10 PM THIS EVENING...THUS ADVISORY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HANER/SMR

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER
     10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
     SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES
     ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO
     JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO
     POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES
     ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 PM PST SUNDAY FOR WEST
     ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KPQR 070454
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
853 PM PST SAT FEB  6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE FROM AN OFFSHORE SYSTEM FLOWS INTO A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.   THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT NORTH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE FURTHER INTENSIFIES...OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL START TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE FIRST SYSTEM TRYING
TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE COAST
WEDNESDAY...THEN SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
BRINGING PRECIPITATION BACK TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON AT TIMES DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS ABOUT 300 MILES OFFSHORE BUT THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE RIDGE AND OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.  MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING TOWARD THE CENTRAL
COAST TONIGHT. BUT VERY HARD TO SEE IN SATELLITE WHILE SURFACE
ANALYSIS SUGGEST THE FRONT MAY BE JUST NORTH OF PORT ORFORD. WE MAY
SEE SOME SPRINKLES REACH THE COAST OVERNIGHT...THEN ALONG THE SW
WASHINGTON COAST SUN AS THE FEATURE LIFTS NORTH.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AND SHARPENS ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY...THE
CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER THE
MODEL CHANGES WE ARE SEEING INDICATE THAT THE EAST WIND WILL BE
SLOWER IN DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY...AND WITH LESS FOG EXPECTED...HAVE
RAISED MAX TEMPS A BIT FOR SUNDAY.  THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EVEN MORE
ON MON WITH H5 HEIGHTS AROUND 585 DAM. THIS WILL ALSO BRING VERY WARM
- FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR - 850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 16C AND 18C
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE VALLEYS WILL REMAIN UNDER A TEMPERATURE
INVERSION WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S. PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ON MONDAY.

THE MODELS SHOW THE EAST WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE GORGE IN
EARNEST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH GRADIENTS THROUGH THE GORGE OF AROUND 7
MB. THIS WOULD SUPPORT GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH AT CORBETT AND ROOSTER
ROCK...AND HIGHER...PERHAPS 60 TO 70 MPH AT CROWN POINT. WE SHOULD
SEE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP IN MOST OF THE INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM
THE GORGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK OUT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOONS. THIS WILL SUPPRESS MAX TEMPS BEGINNING MONDAY IN THOSE
AREAS... SUCH AS AROUND EUGENE AND NORTH OF KELSO.

AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE GORGE...LOOK FOR PERSISTENT LOW
CLOUDS AND LOCAL FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR PARKDALE AND HOOD RIVER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BEYOND.

THE EAST WIND NEAR PORTLAND WILL HELP THAT AREA WARM UP INTO THE 50S
MONDAY...BUT THAT WILL BE NOT AS WARM AS THE COAST...THE
FOOTHILLS...AND COAST RANGE WHERE SOME 60S ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE THE
VALLEY INVERSIONS.

THERE IS NO EAST WIND SUPPORT AT 850 MB AND 700 MB WITH THIS EAST
WIND EVENT...AND IN FACT THE WINDS ARE LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY AT THOSE
LEVELS. THIS SUPPORTS THE INVERSION IDEA AND A CRITICAL LEVEL ABOVE
THE GAP FLOW. THUS THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY A GAP FLOW EVENT. EXPECT
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE VALLEYS AWAY
FROM THE COLUMBIA RIVER THAT COULD PERSIST A WHILE IN THE AFTERNOONS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH MUCH LESS NEAR PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST COUNTY AREAS.

WE SEE A NEAR REPEAT ON TUESDAY OF THE WEATHER FROM MONDAY. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ONE MORE DRY OFFSHORE
FLOW DAY TUESDAY WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE
COLUMBIA GORGE. THE MODELS ARE SAYING THE FIRST SYSTEM TRYING TO
BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN A LOT AS IT ARRIVES AT THE COAST
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF SYSTEMS THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND THAT WILL BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF RAIN AT TIMES TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON...THOUGH SOME DRY AND MILD PERIODS APPEAR INTERSPERSED.
TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...PRIMARILY VFR INLAND AT 04Z EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF MVFR
CIGS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. ALSO SEEING
INCREASING MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST...FROM ABOUT A LITTLE N
OF KONP SOUTH TO KOTH. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE COASTAL
LOW CLOUDS WELL...AND SHOWS IT REACHING KAST BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
MODEL THEN SHOWS THE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING FROM S TO N SUN
MORNING AS OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. INLAND LOCATIONS TO
REMAIN VFR THROUGH SUN EVENING...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF MVFR IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. EXPECT LOCAL IFR IN THE SOUTH
VALLEY OVERNIGHT THROUGH 18Z SUN.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR AT 04Z WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM A
PASSING WARM FRONT. FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH 06Z MON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL IFR/MVFR ALONG
WRN APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z SUN. WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...A PASSING WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING WIND LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUN AFTERNOON FOR THE NRN OUTER WATERS. THE 00Z NAM
SLIGHTLY WEAKER ON WIND SPEEDS COMPARED TO THE 18Z RUN BUT STILL A
TOUCH STRONGER THAN THE 00Z GFS. BASED ON THIS NEW DATA...OPTED TO
DELAY THE ONSET OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND UNTIL 12Z SUN. PEAK
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT...BUT FAVORING THE FAR NW CORNER OF PZZ270. AN
OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS LATER SUNDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH
AT TUE. ANOTHER WARM FRONT IS MODELED TO BRING INCREASING S WIND
AGAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

SEAS HAVE DIPPED UNDER 10 FT AT 04Z AND HAVE ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEAS LOOK TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE 10 FT
FOR MON AND MON NIGHT BEFORE RELAXING A BIT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. A SERIES OF LARGE AND LONGER PERIOD WEST SWELLS LOOK TO
BRING SEAS WELL INTO THE TEENS LATE NEXT WEEK. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM TO 3 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     6 AM PST SUNDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 PM TO
     6 PM PST SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 070454
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
854 PM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CLIP THE COAST AND NORTH CASCADES
ON SUNDAY. EXPECT DRY AND MILD WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
BY WEDNESDAY OPENING THE DOOR TO MORE FRONTAL SYSTEMS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SKIES HAVE CLEARED A LITTLE THIS EVENING WHICH HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S MANY AREAS WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG ALREADY FOR THE SOUTH SOUND AND RIVER VALLEYS.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH A
WARM FRONT CLIPPING THE REGION FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN COAST AND
NORTH. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH AND HOW WIDESPREAD THIS RAIN WILL
BE. GIVEN THE HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW IT SEEMS LIKE IT SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN EVENT BUT
THE 00Z GFS AND NAM INSIST A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER
MOST OF THE AREA FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND MIDDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY FOR DRY
AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY ON TUESDAY
BUT IT WILL BE SHIFTING INLAND...OPENING THE DOOR FOR A FEW MORE
CLOUDS AND A LITTLE COOLING. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
SHIFT FARTHER INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS OVER
THE NE PAC. A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT MODELS ARE BACKING OFF SLIGHTLY ON THIS SYSTEM. RAIN
IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. 33

&&

.AVIATION...SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS OUT THERE...WITH THE THICKEST
CONCENTRATION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...MAINLY SOUTH
OF A KSEA-KHQM LINE. UPPER LEVEL WINDS REMAINING NORTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES MOVING EASTWARD...THEN
TURNING WESTERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS RIDGE AXIS ENTERS THE AREA.

LOWER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AS EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
CONTINUE...THUS ALLOWING CIGS TO REMAIN VFR INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
INCOMING MOISTURE HOWEVER MAY BRING CIGS DOWN TO MVFR IN SOME
LOCATIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HINTING AT A THREAT FOR SOME
PRECIP TO GO WITH THOSE FALLING CIGS...BUT LOOKS INCREDIBLY
SCATTERED AND QUICK MOVING AT BEST. THIS IS PRESENT IN INHERITED
TAFS...BUT MAY WARRANT RE-EVALUATION FOR 06Z ISSUANCE...PARTICULARLY
DUE TO A FULL 24 HOUR PERIOD OF DRYING AT LOWER LEVELS. SMR

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN SUNDAY IN
RESPONSE TO MOISTURE AND THE TAIL END OF A WARM FRONT BRUSHING BY.
CIGS OF 020-040 SHOULD BE EXPECTED FROM 18Z SUN MORNING TO ABOUT 03Z
SUN EVNG. CLEARING AFTERWARD ON SUN EVNG. SMR/HANER

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT AND
PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO VARYING
DEGREES OF OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST TUE NGT.

THE TAIL END OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...LEADING TO INCREASING E/SE WIND FOR THE
COAST AND WEST ENTRANCE. HAVE HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
STARTING LATER TONIGHT FOR THE INCREASE IN WIND.

HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AND WILL
FALL BELOW CRITERIA BY 10 PM THIS EVENING...THUS ADVISORY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HANER/SMR

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER
     10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
     SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES
     ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO
     JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO
     POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES
     ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 PM PST SUNDAY FOR WEST
     ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KPQR 070454
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
853 PM PST SAT FEB  6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE FROM AN OFFSHORE SYSTEM FLOWS INTO A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.   THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT NORTH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE FURTHER INTENSIFIES...OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL START TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE FIRST SYSTEM TRYING
TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE COAST
WEDNESDAY...THEN SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
BRINGING PRECIPITATION BACK TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON AT TIMES DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS ABOUT 300 MILES OFFSHORE BUT THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE RIDGE AND OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.  MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING TOWARD THE CENTRAL
COAST TONIGHT. BUT VERY HARD TO SEE IN SATELLITE WHILE SURFACE
ANALYSIS SUGGEST THE FRONT MAY BE JUST NORTH OF PORT ORFORD. WE MAY
SEE SOME SPRINKLES REACH THE COAST OVERNIGHT...THEN ALONG THE SW
WASHINGTON COAST SUN AS THE FEATURE LIFTS NORTH.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AND SHARPENS ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY...THE
CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER THE
MODEL CHANGES WE ARE SEEING INDICATE THAT THE EAST WIND WILL BE
SLOWER IN DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY...AND WITH LESS FOG EXPECTED...HAVE
RAISED MAX TEMPS A BIT FOR SUNDAY.  THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EVEN MORE
ON MON WITH H5 HEIGHTS AROUND 585 DAM. THIS WILL ALSO BRING VERY WARM
- FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR - 850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 16C AND 18C
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE VALLEYS WILL REMAIN UNDER A TEMPERATURE
INVERSION WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S. PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ON MONDAY.

THE MODELS SHOW THE EAST WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE GORGE IN
EARNEST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH GRADIENTS THROUGH THE GORGE OF AROUND 7
MB. THIS WOULD SUPPORT GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH AT CORBETT AND ROOSTER
ROCK...AND HIGHER...PERHAPS 60 TO 70 MPH AT CROWN POINT. WE SHOULD
SEE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP IN MOST OF THE INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM
THE GORGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK OUT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOONS. THIS WILL SUPPRESS MAX TEMPS BEGINNING MONDAY IN THOSE
AREAS... SUCH AS AROUND EUGENE AND NORTH OF KELSO.

AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE GORGE...LOOK FOR PERSISTENT LOW
CLOUDS AND LOCAL FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR PARKDALE AND HOOD RIVER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BEYOND.

THE EAST WIND NEAR PORTLAND WILL HELP THAT AREA WARM UP INTO THE 50S
MONDAY...BUT THAT WILL BE NOT AS WARM AS THE COAST...THE
FOOTHILLS...AND COAST RANGE WHERE SOME 60S ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE THE
VALLEY INVERSIONS.

THERE IS NO EAST WIND SUPPORT AT 850 MB AND 700 MB WITH THIS EAST
WIND EVENT...AND IN FACT THE WINDS ARE LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY AT THOSE
LEVELS. THIS SUPPORTS THE INVERSION IDEA AND A CRITICAL LEVEL ABOVE
THE GAP FLOW. THUS THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY A GAP FLOW EVENT. EXPECT
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE VALLEYS AWAY
FROM THE COLUMBIA RIVER THAT COULD PERSIST A WHILE IN THE AFTERNOONS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH MUCH LESS NEAR PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST COUNTY AREAS.

WE SEE A NEAR REPEAT ON TUESDAY OF THE WEATHER FROM MONDAY. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ONE MORE DRY OFFSHORE
FLOW DAY TUESDAY WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE
COLUMBIA GORGE. THE MODELS ARE SAYING THE FIRST SYSTEM TRYING TO
BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN A LOT AS IT ARRIVES AT THE COAST
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF SYSTEMS THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND THAT WILL BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF RAIN AT TIMES TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON...THOUGH SOME DRY AND MILD PERIODS APPEAR INTERSPERSED.
TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...PRIMARILY VFR INLAND AT 04Z EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF MVFR
CIGS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. ALSO SEEING
INCREASING MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST...FROM ABOUT A LITTLE N
OF KONP SOUTH TO KOTH. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE COASTAL
LOW CLOUDS WELL...AND SHOWS IT REACHING KAST BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
MODEL THEN SHOWS THE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING FROM S TO N SUN
MORNING AS OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. INLAND LOCATIONS TO
REMAIN VFR THROUGH SUN EVENING...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF MVFR IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. EXPECT LOCAL IFR IN THE SOUTH
VALLEY OVERNIGHT THROUGH 18Z SUN.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR AT 04Z WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM A
PASSING WARM FRONT. FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH 06Z MON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL IFR/MVFR ALONG
WRN APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z SUN. WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...A PASSING WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING WIND LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUN AFTERNOON FOR THE NRN OUTER WATERS. THE 00Z NAM
SLIGHTLY WEAKER ON WIND SPEEDS COMPARED TO THE 18Z RUN BUT STILL A
TOUCH STRONGER THAN THE 00Z GFS. BASED ON THIS NEW DATA...OPTED TO
DELAY THE ONSET OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND UNTIL 12Z SUN. PEAK
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT...BUT FAVORING THE FAR NW CORNER OF PZZ270. AN
OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS LATER SUNDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH
AT TUE. ANOTHER WARM FRONT IS MODELED TO BRING INCREASING S WIND
AGAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

SEAS HAVE DIPPED UNDER 10 FT AT 04Z AND HAVE ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEAS LOOK TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE 10 FT
FOR MON AND MON NIGHT BEFORE RELAXING A BIT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. A SERIES OF LARGE AND LONGER PERIOD WEST SWELLS LOOK TO
BRING SEAS WELL INTO THE TEENS LATE NEXT WEEK. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM TO 3 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     6 AM PST SUNDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 PM TO
     6 PM PST SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 070454
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
853 PM PST SAT FEB  6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE FROM AN OFFSHORE SYSTEM FLOWS INTO A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.   THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT NORTH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE FURTHER INTENSIFIES...OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL START TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE FIRST SYSTEM TRYING
TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE COAST
WEDNESDAY...THEN SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
BRINGING PRECIPITATION BACK TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON AT TIMES DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS ABOUT 300 MILES OFFSHORE BUT THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE RIDGE AND OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.  MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING TOWARD THE CENTRAL
COAST TONIGHT. BUT VERY HARD TO SEE IN SATELLITE WHILE SURFACE
ANALYSIS SUGGEST THE FRONT MAY BE JUST NORTH OF PORT ORFORD. WE MAY
SEE SOME SPRINKLES REACH THE COAST OVERNIGHT...THEN ALONG THE SW
WASHINGTON COAST SUN AS THE FEATURE LIFTS NORTH.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AND SHARPENS ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY...THE
CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER THE
MODEL CHANGES WE ARE SEEING INDICATE THAT THE EAST WIND WILL BE
SLOWER IN DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY...AND WITH LESS FOG EXPECTED...HAVE
RAISED MAX TEMPS A BIT FOR SUNDAY.  THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EVEN MORE
ON MON WITH H5 HEIGHTS AROUND 585 DAM. THIS WILL ALSO BRING VERY WARM
- FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR - 850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 16C AND 18C
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE VALLEYS WILL REMAIN UNDER A TEMPERATURE
INVERSION WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S. PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ON MONDAY.

THE MODELS SHOW THE EAST WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE GORGE IN
EARNEST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH GRADIENTS THROUGH THE GORGE OF AROUND 7
MB. THIS WOULD SUPPORT GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH AT CORBETT AND ROOSTER
ROCK...AND HIGHER...PERHAPS 60 TO 70 MPH AT CROWN POINT. WE SHOULD
SEE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP IN MOST OF THE INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM
THE GORGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK OUT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOONS. THIS WILL SUPPRESS MAX TEMPS BEGINNING MONDAY IN THOSE
AREAS... SUCH AS AROUND EUGENE AND NORTH OF KELSO.

AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE GORGE...LOOK FOR PERSISTENT LOW
CLOUDS AND LOCAL FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR PARKDALE AND HOOD RIVER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BEYOND.

THE EAST WIND NEAR PORTLAND WILL HELP THAT AREA WARM UP INTO THE 50S
MONDAY...BUT THAT WILL BE NOT AS WARM AS THE COAST...THE
FOOTHILLS...AND COAST RANGE WHERE SOME 60S ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE THE
VALLEY INVERSIONS.

THERE IS NO EAST WIND SUPPORT AT 850 MB AND 700 MB WITH THIS EAST
WIND EVENT...AND IN FACT THE WINDS ARE LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY AT THOSE
LEVELS. THIS SUPPORTS THE INVERSION IDEA AND A CRITICAL LEVEL ABOVE
THE GAP FLOW. THUS THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY A GAP FLOW EVENT. EXPECT
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE VALLEYS AWAY
FROM THE COLUMBIA RIVER THAT COULD PERSIST A WHILE IN THE AFTERNOONS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH MUCH LESS NEAR PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST COUNTY AREAS.

WE SEE A NEAR REPEAT ON TUESDAY OF THE WEATHER FROM MONDAY. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ONE MORE DRY OFFSHORE
FLOW DAY TUESDAY WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE
COLUMBIA GORGE. THE MODELS ARE SAYING THE FIRST SYSTEM TRYING TO
BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN A LOT AS IT ARRIVES AT THE COAST
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF SYSTEMS THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND THAT WILL BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF RAIN AT TIMES TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON...THOUGH SOME DRY AND MILD PERIODS APPEAR INTERSPERSED.
TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...PRIMARILY VFR INLAND AT 04Z EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF MVFR
CIGS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. ALSO SEEING
INCREASING MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST...FROM ABOUT A LITTLE N
OF KONP SOUTH TO KOTH. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE COASTAL
LOW CLOUDS WELL...AND SHOWS IT REACHING KAST BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
MODEL THEN SHOWS THE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING FROM S TO N SUN
MORNING AS OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. INLAND LOCATIONS TO
REMAIN VFR THROUGH SUN EVENING...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF MVFR IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. EXPECT LOCAL IFR IN THE SOUTH
VALLEY OVERNIGHT THROUGH 18Z SUN.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR AT 04Z WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM A
PASSING WARM FRONT. FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH 06Z MON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL IFR/MVFR ALONG
WRN APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z SUN. WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...A PASSING WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING WIND LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUN AFTERNOON FOR THE NRN OUTER WATERS. THE 00Z NAM
SLIGHTLY WEAKER ON WIND SPEEDS COMPARED TO THE 18Z RUN BUT STILL A
TOUCH STRONGER THAN THE 00Z GFS. BASED ON THIS NEW DATA...OPTED TO
DELAY THE ONSET OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND UNTIL 12Z SUN. PEAK
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT...BUT FAVORING THE FAR NW CORNER OF PZZ270. AN
OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS LATER SUNDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH
AT TUE. ANOTHER WARM FRONT IS MODELED TO BRING INCREASING S WIND
AGAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

SEAS HAVE DIPPED UNDER 10 FT AT 04Z AND HAVE ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEAS LOOK TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE 10 FT
FOR MON AND MON NIGHT BEFORE RELAXING A BIT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. A SERIES OF LARGE AND LONGER PERIOD WEST SWELLS LOOK TO
BRING SEAS WELL INTO THE TEENS LATE NEXT WEEK. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM TO 3 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     6 AM PST SUNDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 PM TO
     6 PM PST SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 070454
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
854 PM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CLIP THE COAST AND NORTH CASCADES
ON SUNDAY. EXPECT DRY AND MILD WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
BY WEDNESDAY OPENING THE DOOR TO MORE FRONTAL SYSTEMS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SKIES HAVE CLEARED A LITTLE THIS EVENING WHICH HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S MANY AREAS WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG ALREADY FOR THE SOUTH SOUND AND RIVER VALLEYS.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH A
WARM FRONT CLIPPING THE REGION FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN COAST AND
NORTH. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH AND HOW WIDESPREAD THIS RAIN WILL
BE. GIVEN THE HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW IT SEEMS LIKE IT SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN EVENT BUT
THE 00Z GFS AND NAM INSIST A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER
MOST OF THE AREA FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND MIDDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY FOR DRY
AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY ON TUESDAY
BUT IT WILL BE SHIFTING INLAND...OPENING THE DOOR FOR A FEW MORE
CLOUDS AND A LITTLE COOLING. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
SHIFT FARTHER INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS OVER
THE NE PAC. A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT MODELS ARE BACKING OFF SLIGHTLY ON THIS SYSTEM. RAIN
IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. 33

&&

.AVIATION...SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS OUT THERE...WITH THE THICKEST
CONCENTRATION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...MAINLY SOUTH
OF A KSEA-KHQM LINE. UPPER LEVEL WINDS REMAINING NORTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES MOVING EASTWARD...THEN
TURNING WESTERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS RIDGE AXIS ENTERS THE AREA.

LOWER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AS EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
CONTINUE...THUS ALLOWING CIGS TO REMAIN VFR INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
INCOMING MOISTURE HOWEVER MAY BRING CIGS DOWN TO MVFR IN SOME
LOCATIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HINTING AT A THREAT FOR SOME
PRECIP TO GO WITH THOSE FALLING CIGS...BUT LOOKS INCREDIBLY
SCATTERED AND QUICK MOVING AT BEST. THIS IS PRESENT IN INHERITED
TAFS...BUT MAY WARRANT RE-EVALUATION FOR 06Z ISSUANCE...PARTICULARLY
DUE TO A FULL 24 HOUR PERIOD OF DRYING AT LOWER LEVELS. SMR

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN SUNDAY IN
RESPONSE TO MOISTURE AND THE TAIL END OF A WARM FRONT BRUSHING BY.
CIGS OF 020-040 SHOULD BE EXPECTED FROM 18Z SUN MORNING TO ABOUT 03Z
SUN EVNG. CLEARING AFTERWARD ON SUN EVNG. SMR/HANER

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT AND
PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO VARYING
DEGREES OF OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST TUE NGT.

THE TAIL END OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...LEADING TO INCREASING E/SE WIND FOR THE
COAST AND WEST ENTRANCE. HAVE HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
STARTING LATER TONIGHT FOR THE INCREASE IN WIND.

HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AND WILL
FALL BELOW CRITERIA BY 10 PM THIS EVENING...THUS ADVISORY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HANER/SMR

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER
     10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
     SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES
     ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO
     JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO
     POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES
     ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 PM PST SUNDAY FOR WEST
     ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KOTX 062335
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
335 PM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest Sunday
bringing dry weather and light winds. Dry and mild conditions are
expected for the first half of the week. The chance for light
rain will return Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday...Ridge of high pressure building over the area
with the ridge placement just west of the Washington Cascades is
positioned in such a way as to allow minor disturbances and
moisture to flux through it and overtop it and move through
Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho during this time interval.
Since the disturbances are very weak and the moisture fairly
limited except at the middle and upper levels the probabilities of
precipitation remain quite low and confined primarily to the
northern periphery of the mountain zones but sky cover forecast
will reflect the presence of the moisture and disturbances fluxing
through with varable periods of cloud cover ranging from Partly
cloudy to cloudy. With the low amplitude of the ridge in the
vicinity and the lower level winds tending to have an easterly
component the forecast temperatures will be slightly on the warm
side of what would be considered normal for this time of year.
/Pelatti

Sunday night through Saturday...Model agreement suggests high
confidence of dry and stable conditions over the region through
Wednesday as an upper level ridge builds and becomes established.
This rideg will probably not stick around long enough to allow
significant air quality deterioration...but areas of fog and low
clouds will become increasingly common especially in the morning
hours through the middle of the week. The Palouse and points south
will benefit from a dry downslope breeze and should experience
considerable sunshine. Temperatures will run slightly above
average for this time of year and may be downright mild during the
days depending on sunshine prevalence.

On or about Thursday the latest GFS and ECMWF models are in
surprisingly good agreement for that far out in depicting a
breakdown of this ridge featuring a pair of cold
fronts...probably bearing mountain snow and valley rain
showers...the first one passing through Wednesday night and the
second on Friday night. This will herald a return to a more active
and progressive pattern. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A building ridge aloft and weak high pressure building
over Idaho will create dry and benign conditions over the region
for the next 24 hours. Moisture cresting this ridge will promote
occasionally thick mid level cloud ceilings AOA 10kft MSL. This
cloud cover will likely limit temperature drops tonight
stabilizing above the dew point and thus morning fog and low
stratus is unlikely at any TAF sites Sunday morning. VFR
conditions are expected at all TAF sites through 00Z Monday. /MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        28  42  30  45  31  46 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  26  42  31  46  32  47 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Pullman        30  46  34  51  35  53 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       32  52  37  55  36  56 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Colville       27  37  30  41  31  43 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      27  38  30  41  32  44 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        26  39  31  45  32  48 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     29  44  29  45  31  47 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      29  39  30  40  31  42 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           26  35  29  38  29  40 /   0  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 062335
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
335 PM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest Sunday
bringing dry weather and light winds. Dry and mild conditions are
expected for the first half of the week. The chance for light
rain will return Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday...Ridge of high pressure building over the area
with the ridge placement just west of the Washington Cascades is
positioned in such a way as to allow minor disturbances and
moisture to flux through it and overtop it and move through
Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho during this time interval.
Since the disturbances are very weak and the moisture fairly
limited except at the middle and upper levels the probabilities of
precipitation remain quite low and confined primarily to the
northern periphery of the mountain zones but sky cover forecast
will reflect the presence of the moisture and disturbances fluxing
through with varable periods of cloud cover ranging from Partly
cloudy to cloudy. With the low amplitude of the ridge in the
vicinity and the lower level winds tending to have an easterly
component the forecast temperatures will be slightly on the warm
side of what would be considered normal for this time of year.
/Pelatti

Sunday night through Saturday...Model agreement suggests high
confidence of dry and stable conditions over the region through
Wednesday as an upper level ridge builds and becomes established.
This rideg will probably not stick around long enough to allow
significant air quality deterioration...but areas of fog and low
clouds will become increasingly common especially in the morning
hours through the middle of the week. The Palouse and points south
will benefit from a dry downslope breeze and should experience
considerable sunshine. Temperatures will run slightly above
average for this time of year and may be downright mild during the
days depending on sunshine prevalence.

On or about Thursday the latest GFS and ECMWF models are in
surprisingly good agreement for that far out in depicting a
breakdown of this ridge featuring a pair of cold
fronts...probably bearing mountain snow and valley rain
showers...the first one passing through Wednesday night and the
second on Friday night. This will herald a return to a more active
and progressive pattern. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A building ridge aloft and weak high pressure building
over Idaho will create dry and benign conditions over the region
for the next 24 hours. Moisture cresting this ridge will promote
occasionally thick mid level cloud ceilings AOA 10kft MSL. This
cloud cover will likely limit temperature drops tonight
stabilizing above the dew point and thus morning fog and low
stratus is unlikely at any TAF sites Sunday morning. VFR
conditions are expected at all TAF sites through 00Z Monday. /MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        28  42  30  45  31  46 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  26  42  31  46  32  47 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Pullman        30  46  34  51  35  53 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       32  52  37  55  36  56 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Colville       27  37  30  41  31  43 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      27  38  30  41  32  44 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        26  39  31  45  32  48 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     29  44  29  45  31  47 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      29  39  30  40  31  42 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           26  35  29  38  29  40 /   0  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 062335
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
335 PM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest Sunday
bringing dry weather and light winds. Dry and mild conditions are
expected for the first half of the week. The chance for light
rain will return Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday...Ridge of high pressure building over the area
with the ridge placement just west of the Washington Cascades is
positioned in such a way as to allow minor disturbances and
moisture to flux through it and overtop it and move through
Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho during this time interval.
Since the disturbances are very weak and the moisture fairly
limited except at the middle and upper levels the probabilities of
precipitation remain quite low and confined primarily to the
northern periphery of the mountain zones but sky cover forecast
will reflect the presence of the moisture and disturbances fluxing
through with varable periods of cloud cover ranging from Partly
cloudy to cloudy. With the low amplitude of the ridge in the
vicinity and the lower level winds tending to have an easterly
component the forecast temperatures will be slightly on the warm
side of what would be considered normal for this time of year.
/Pelatti

Sunday night through Saturday...Model agreement suggests high
confidence of dry and stable conditions over the region through
Wednesday as an upper level ridge builds and becomes established.
This rideg will probably not stick around long enough to allow
significant air quality deterioration...but areas of fog and low
clouds will become increasingly common especially in the morning
hours through the middle of the week. The Palouse and points south
will benefit from a dry downslope breeze and should experience
considerable sunshine. Temperatures will run slightly above
average for this time of year and may be downright mild during the
days depending on sunshine prevalence.

On or about Thursday the latest GFS and ECMWF models are in
surprisingly good agreement for that far out in depicting a
breakdown of this ridge featuring a pair of cold
fronts...probably bearing mountain snow and valley rain
showers...the first one passing through Wednesday night and the
second on Friday night. This will herald a return to a more active
and progressive pattern. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A building ridge aloft and weak high pressure building
over Idaho will create dry and benign conditions over the region
for the next 24 hours. Moisture cresting this ridge will promote
occasionally thick mid level cloud ceilings AOA 10kft MSL. This
cloud cover will likely limit temperature drops tonight
stabilizing above the dew point and thus morning fog and low
stratus is unlikely at any TAF sites Sunday morning. VFR
conditions are expected at all TAF sites through 00Z Monday. /MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        28  42  30  45  31  46 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  26  42  31  46  32  47 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Pullman        30  46  34  51  35  53 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       32  52  37  55  36  56 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Colville       27  37  30  41  31  43 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      27  38  30  41  32  44 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        26  39  31  45  32  48 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     29  44  29  45  31  47 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      29  39  30  40  31  42 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           26  35  29  38  29  40 /   0  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 062323
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 PM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CLIP THE COAST AND NORTH CASCADES
ON SUNDAY. EXPECT DRY AND MILD WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
BY WEDNESDAY OPENING THE DOOR TO MORE FRONTAL SYSTEMS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE TURNING OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON
AND SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS WESTERN WA. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR 40.

A DIRTY RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS FRONT MAY CLIP WESTERN WA
FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN ON THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND NORTH CASCADES.
BUT WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AND 500 MB HEIGHTS IN THE 570S NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN QPF.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STALL OVER THE PAC NW MONDAY AND TUESDAY
FOR DRY AND MILD WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN WA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL BUMP UPWARDS A
FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH MID 60S
POSSIBLE AT THE COAST. 33

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT FARTHER INLAND ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS OVER THE NE PAC. A WEAK WARM
FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS ARE
BACKING OFF SLIGHTLY ON THIS SYSTEM. RAIN IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS OF 025-035 IN THE CENTRAL SOUND REGION (SEA-BFI-PAE-
PWT) WILL SOON QUICKLY CLEAR AWAY AS A DRYING EASTERLY COMPONENT OF
THE SFC WIND DEVELOPS...AND LOW-LEVEL LIFT TURNS TO LOW-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE FOR THIS EVNG. THIS WILL LEAVE WRN WA WITH VFR CONDS THIS
EVNG AND OVERNIGHT...WITH SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AOA 10000 FT MSL.
ON SUNDAY...WARM ADVECTION LIFT AND MOISTURE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SOME MVFR CIGS ON
SUNDAY AFTN...WITH SOME -RA POSSIBLE OVER THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND
THE INTERIOR NORTH OF SEATTLE. LOW- LEVEL AIR MASS DRYING THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN MOISTENING ON SUNDAY. MODERATE WEST WINDS ALOFT.

KSEA...MVFR CIGS IN THE 025-030 RANGE WILL CLEAR OUT ANY TIME
NOW...LEAVING A VFR EVNG AND OVERNIGHT WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. ON
SUNDAY...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE AND
THE TAIL END OF A WARM FRONT BRUSHING BY. CIGS OF 020-040 SHOULD BE
EXPECTED FROM 18Z SUN MORNING TO ABOUT 03Z SUN EVNG. CLEARING
AFTERWARD ON SUN EVNG.HANER

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT AND
PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO VARYING
DEGREES OF OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST TUE NGT.

THE TAIL END OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...LEADING TO INCREASING E/SE WIND FOR THE COAST
AND WEST ENTRANCE. HAVE HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES STARTING
LATER TONIGHT FOR THE INCREASE IN WIND.

HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ARE SUBSIDING NICELY. SEAS
HAVE DROPPED BELOW 10 FEET AT BUOY 87 AT THE WEST ENTRANCE...AND ARE
AT 10-11 FEET AT BUOY 41. ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...NONE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS COAST AND WEST
     ENTRANCE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KSEW 062323
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 PM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CLIP THE COAST AND NORTH CASCADES
ON SUNDAY. EXPECT DRY AND MILD WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
BY WEDNESDAY OPENING THE DOOR TO MORE FRONTAL SYSTEMS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE TURNING OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON
AND SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS WESTERN WA. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR 40.

A DIRTY RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS FRONT MAY CLIP WESTERN WA
FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN ON THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND NORTH CASCADES.
BUT WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AND 500 MB HEIGHTS IN THE 570S NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN QPF.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STALL OVER THE PAC NW MONDAY AND TUESDAY
FOR DRY AND MILD WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN WA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL BUMP UPWARDS A
FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH MID 60S
POSSIBLE AT THE COAST. 33

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT FARTHER INLAND ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS OVER THE NE PAC. A WEAK WARM
FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS ARE
BACKING OFF SLIGHTLY ON THIS SYSTEM. RAIN IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS OF 025-035 IN THE CENTRAL SOUND REGION (SEA-BFI-PAE-
PWT) WILL SOON QUICKLY CLEAR AWAY AS A DRYING EASTERLY COMPONENT OF
THE SFC WIND DEVELOPS...AND LOW-LEVEL LIFT TURNS TO LOW-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE FOR THIS EVNG. THIS WILL LEAVE WRN WA WITH VFR CONDS THIS
EVNG AND OVERNIGHT...WITH SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AOA 10000 FT MSL.
ON SUNDAY...WARM ADVECTION LIFT AND MOISTURE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SOME MVFR CIGS ON
SUNDAY AFTN...WITH SOME -RA POSSIBLE OVER THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND
THE INTERIOR NORTH OF SEATTLE. LOW- LEVEL AIR MASS DRYING THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN MOISTENING ON SUNDAY. MODERATE WEST WINDS ALOFT.

KSEA...MVFR CIGS IN THE 025-030 RANGE WILL CLEAR OUT ANY TIME
NOW...LEAVING A VFR EVNG AND OVERNIGHT WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. ON
SUNDAY...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE AND
THE TAIL END OF A WARM FRONT BRUSHING BY. CIGS OF 020-040 SHOULD BE
EXPECTED FROM 18Z SUN MORNING TO ABOUT 03Z SUN EVNG. CLEARING
AFTERWARD ON SUN EVNG.HANER

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT AND
PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO VARYING
DEGREES OF OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST TUE NGT.

THE TAIL END OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...LEADING TO INCREASING E/SE WIND FOR THE COAST
AND WEST ENTRANCE. HAVE HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES STARTING
LATER TONIGHT FOR THE INCREASE IN WIND.

HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ARE SUBSIDING NICELY. SEAS
HAVE DROPPED BELOW 10 FEET AT BUOY 87 AT THE WEST ENTRANCE...AND ARE
AT 10-11 FEET AT BUOY 41. ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...NONE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS COAST AND WEST
     ENTRANCE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 062323
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 PM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CLIP THE COAST AND NORTH CASCADES
ON SUNDAY. EXPECT DRY AND MILD WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
BY WEDNESDAY OPENING THE DOOR TO MORE FRONTAL SYSTEMS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE TURNING OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON
AND SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS WESTERN WA. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR 40.

A DIRTY RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS FRONT MAY CLIP WESTERN WA
FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN ON THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND NORTH CASCADES.
BUT WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AND 500 MB HEIGHTS IN THE 570S NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN QPF.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STALL OVER THE PAC NW MONDAY AND TUESDAY
FOR DRY AND MILD WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN WA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL BUMP UPWARDS A
FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH MID 60S
POSSIBLE AT THE COAST. 33

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT FARTHER INLAND ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS OVER THE NE PAC. A WEAK WARM
FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS ARE
BACKING OFF SLIGHTLY ON THIS SYSTEM. RAIN IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS OF 025-035 IN THE CENTRAL SOUND REGION (SEA-BFI-PAE-
PWT) WILL SOON QUICKLY CLEAR AWAY AS A DRYING EASTERLY COMPONENT OF
THE SFC WIND DEVELOPS...AND LOW-LEVEL LIFT TURNS TO LOW-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE FOR THIS EVNG. THIS WILL LEAVE WRN WA WITH VFR CONDS THIS
EVNG AND OVERNIGHT...WITH SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AOA 10000 FT MSL.
ON SUNDAY...WARM ADVECTION LIFT AND MOISTURE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SOME MVFR CIGS ON
SUNDAY AFTN...WITH SOME -RA POSSIBLE OVER THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND
THE INTERIOR NORTH OF SEATTLE. LOW- LEVEL AIR MASS DRYING THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN MOISTENING ON SUNDAY. MODERATE WEST WINDS ALOFT.

KSEA...MVFR CIGS IN THE 025-030 RANGE WILL CLEAR OUT ANY TIME
NOW...LEAVING A VFR EVNG AND OVERNIGHT WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. ON
SUNDAY...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE AND
THE TAIL END OF A WARM FRONT BRUSHING BY. CIGS OF 020-040 SHOULD BE
EXPECTED FROM 18Z SUN MORNING TO ABOUT 03Z SUN EVNG. CLEARING
AFTERWARD ON SUN EVNG.HANER

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT AND
PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO VARYING
DEGREES OF OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST TUE NGT.

THE TAIL END OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...LEADING TO INCREASING E/SE WIND FOR THE COAST
AND WEST ENTRANCE. HAVE HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES STARTING
LATER TONIGHT FOR THE INCREASE IN WIND.

HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ARE SUBSIDING NICELY. SEAS
HAVE DROPPED BELOW 10 FEET AT BUOY 87 AT THE WEST ENTRANCE...AND ARE
AT 10-11 FEET AT BUOY 41. ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...NONE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS COAST AND WEST
     ENTRANCE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KPQR 062239
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
239 PM PST SAT FEB  6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN INITIALLY MODEST UPPER RIDGE WAS CONTINUING TO SPREAD
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON. THIS WILL LIFT NORTH
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AND AS THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
THAT IS MOSTLY OFFSHORE ALSO LIFTS NORTH. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
INTENSIFIES...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL START TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE FIRST SYSTEM TRYING
TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE COAST
WEDNESDAY...THEN SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
BRINGING PRECIPITATION BACK TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON AT TIMES DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A MODEST UPPER RIDGE HAD
SPREAD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY...BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER WAS SPREADING OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS WAY OFFSHORE. THERE IS A WARM FRONT WITH
THIS STREAM OF MOISTURE...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY OFFSHORE. THE
MODELS INDICATE WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THIS MOISTURE AND WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH AND THE CLOUDS BREAK UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT... THINK
THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LESS EXTENSIVE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MUCH IN THE
SOUTH NEAR EUGENE. HAVE BOOSTED MIN TEMPS A BIT TONIGHT AS A RESULT.
THE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST AT SOME LIGHT RAIN CATCHING THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOME SPRINKLES POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST AND LOCALLY INLAND
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS WELL.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AND SHARPENS ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY... THE
CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER THE
MODEL CHANGES WE ARE SEEING INDICATE THAT THE EAST WIND WILL BE
SLOWER IN DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY...AND WITH LESS FOG EXPECTED...HAVE
RAISED MAX TEMPS A BIT FOR SUNDAY.

THE MODELS SHOW THE EAST WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE GORGE IN
EARNEST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH GRADIENTS THROUGH THE GORGE OF AROUND 7
MB. THIS WOULD SUPPORT GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH AT CORBETT AND ROOSTER
ROCK...AND HIGHER...PERHAPS 60 TO 70 MPH AT CROWN POINT. WE SHOULD
SEE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP IN MOST OF THE INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM
THE GORGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK OUT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOONS. THIS WILL SUPPRESS MAX TEMPS BEGINNING MONDAY IN THOSE
AREAS... SUCH AS AROUND EUGENE AND NORTH OF KELSO.

AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE GORGE...LOOK FOR PERSISTENT LOW
CLOUDS AND LOCAL FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR PARKDALE AND HOOD RIVER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BEYOND.

THE EAST WIND NEAR PORTLAND WILL HELP THAT AREA WARM UP INTO THE 50S
MONDAY...BUT THAT WILL BE NOT AS WARM AS THE COAST...THE
FOOTHILLS...AND COAST RANGE WHERE SOME 60S ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE THE
VALLEY INVERSIONS.

THERE IS NO EAST WIND SUPPORT AT 850 MB AND 700 MB WITH THIS EAST
WIND EVENT...AND IN FACT THE WINDS ARE LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY AT THOSE
LEVELS. THIS SUPPORTS THE INVERSION IDEA AND A CRITICAL LEVEL ABOVE
THE GAP FLOW. THUS THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY A GAP FLOW EVENT. EXPECT
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE VALLEYS AWAY
FROM THE COLUMBIA RIVER THAT COULD PERSIST A WHILE IN THE AFTERNOONS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH MUCH LESS NEAR PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST COUNTY AREAS.

WE SEE A NEAR REPEAT ON TUESDAY OF THE WEATHER FROM MONDAY. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ONE MORE DRY OFFSHORE
FLOW DAY TUESDAY WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE
COLUMBIA GORGE. THE MODELS ARE SAYING THE FIRST SYSTEM TRYING TO
BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN A LOT AS IT ARRIVES AT THE COAST
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF SYSTEMS THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND THAT WILL BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF RAIN AT TIMES TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON...THOUGH SOME DRY AND MILD PERIODS APPEAR INTERSPERSED.
TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...LIKELY THICKENING A
BIT BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THESE CLOUDS MAY PREVENT
WIDESPREAD FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING...BUT CANNOT RULE
SOME LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS STILL DEVELOPING AT SEVERAL OF OUR TAF
SITES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS SUCH TIMING AND WHICH
SITES WILL EXPERIENCE THE MOST SEVERE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS REMAINS
LOW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OFFSHORE
WILL BRING PERIODS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH
MAY LIMIT FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO ALLOW AT LEAST SOME FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP...BUT WHETHER THEY WILL BE BRIEF OR PROLONGED
AND IN THE MVFR OR IFR CATEGORY IS RATHER UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
/NEUMAN
&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
AND FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY THE OUTER
NORTHERN WATERS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY ONLY PEAK AROUND 25
KT THOUGH. AN OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...AND LIKELY LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
WARM FRONT IS MODELED TO BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW 10 FT THIS EVENING. SEAS LOOK TO CLIMB BACK
ABOVE 10 FT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE RELAXING A BIT TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF LARGE AND LONGER PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELLS LOOK TO BRING SEAS WELL INTO THE TEENS LATE NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM PST SUNDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PS
     THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     7 PM PST THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     1 AM TO 6 AM PST SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 062239
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
239 PM PST SAT FEB  6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN INITIALLY MODEST UPPER RIDGE WAS CONTINUING TO SPREAD
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON. THIS WILL LIFT NORTH
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AND AS THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
THAT IS MOSTLY OFFSHORE ALSO LIFTS NORTH. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
INTENSIFIES...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL START TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE FIRST SYSTEM TRYING
TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE COAST
WEDNESDAY...THEN SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
BRINGING PRECIPITATION BACK TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON AT TIMES DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A MODEST UPPER RIDGE HAD
SPREAD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY...BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER WAS SPREADING OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS WAY OFFSHORE. THERE IS A WARM FRONT WITH
THIS STREAM OF MOISTURE...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY OFFSHORE. THE
MODELS INDICATE WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THIS MOISTURE AND WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH AND THE CLOUDS BREAK UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT... THINK
THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LESS EXTENSIVE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MUCH IN THE
SOUTH NEAR EUGENE. HAVE BOOSTED MIN TEMPS A BIT TONIGHT AS A RESULT.
THE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST AT SOME LIGHT RAIN CATCHING THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOME SPRINKLES POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST AND LOCALLY INLAND
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS WELL.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AND SHARPENS ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY... THE
CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER THE
MODEL CHANGES WE ARE SEEING INDICATE THAT THE EAST WIND WILL BE
SLOWER IN DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY...AND WITH LESS FOG EXPECTED...HAVE
RAISED MAX TEMPS A BIT FOR SUNDAY.

THE MODELS SHOW THE EAST WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE GORGE IN
EARNEST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH GRADIENTS THROUGH THE GORGE OF AROUND 7
MB. THIS WOULD SUPPORT GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH AT CORBETT AND ROOSTER
ROCK...AND HIGHER...PERHAPS 60 TO 70 MPH AT CROWN POINT. WE SHOULD
SEE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP IN MOST OF THE INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM
THE GORGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK OUT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOONS. THIS WILL SUPPRESS MAX TEMPS BEGINNING MONDAY IN THOSE
AREAS... SUCH AS AROUND EUGENE AND NORTH OF KELSO.

AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE GORGE...LOOK FOR PERSISTENT LOW
CLOUDS AND LOCAL FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR PARKDALE AND HOOD RIVER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BEYOND.

THE EAST WIND NEAR PORTLAND WILL HELP THAT AREA WARM UP INTO THE 50S
MONDAY...BUT THAT WILL BE NOT AS WARM AS THE COAST...THE
FOOTHILLS...AND COAST RANGE WHERE SOME 60S ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE THE
VALLEY INVERSIONS.

THERE IS NO EAST WIND SUPPORT AT 850 MB AND 700 MB WITH THIS EAST
WIND EVENT...AND IN FACT THE WINDS ARE LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY AT THOSE
LEVELS. THIS SUPPORTS THE INVERSION IDEA AND A CRITICAL LEVEL ABOVE
THE GAP FLOW. THUS THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY A GAP FLOW EVENT. EXPECT
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE VALLEYS AWAY
FROM THE COLUMBIA RIVER THAT COULD PERSIST A WHILE IN THE AFTERNOONS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH MUCH LESS NEAR PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST COUNTY AREAS.

WE SEE A NEAR REPEAT ON TUESDAY OF THE WEATHER FROM MONDAY. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ONE MORE DRY OFFSHORE
FLOW DAY TUESDAY WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE
COLUMBIA GORGE. THE MODELS ARE SAYING THE FIRST SYSTEM TRYING TO
BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN A LOT AS IT ARRIVES AT THE COAST
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF SYSTEMS THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND THAT WILL BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF RAIN AT TIMES TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON...THOUGH SOME DRY AND MILD PERIODS APPEAR INTERSPERSED.
TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...LIKELY THICKENING A
BIT BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THESE CLOUDS MAY PREVENT
WIDESPREAD FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING...BUT CANNOT RULE
SOME LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS STILL DEVELOPING AT SEVERAL OF OUR TAF
SITES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS SUCH TIMING AND WHICH
SITES WILL EXPERIENCE THE MOST SEVERE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS REMAINS
LOW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OFFSHORE
WILL BRING PERIODS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH
MAY LIMIT FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO ALLOW AT LEAST SOME FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP...BUT WHETHER THEY WILL BE BRIEF OR PROLONGED
AND IN THE MVFR OR IFR CATEGORY IS RATHER UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
/NEUMAN
&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
AND FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY THE OUTER
NORTHERN WATERS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY ONLY PEAK AROUND 25
KT THOUGH. AN OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...AND LIKELY LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
WARM FRONT IS MODELED TO BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW 10 FT THIS EVENING. SEAS LOOK TO CLIMB BACK
ABOVE 10 FT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE RELAXING A BIT TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF LARGE AND LONGER PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELLS LOOK TO BRING SEAS WELL INTO THE TEENS LATE NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM PST SUNDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PS
     THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     7 PM PST THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     1 AM TO 6 AM PST SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 062239
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
239 PM PST SAT FEB  6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN INITIALLY MODEST UPPER RIDGE WAS CONTINUING TO SPREAD
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON. THIS WILL LIFT NORTH
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AND AS THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
THAT IS MOSTLY OFFSHORE ALSO LIFTS NORTH. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
INTENSIFIES...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL START TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE FIRST SYSTEM TRYING
TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE COAST
WEDNESDAY...THEN SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
BRINGING PRECIPITATION BACK TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON AT TIMES DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A MODEST UPPER RIDGE HAD
SPREAD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY...BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER WAS SPREADING OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS WAY OFFSHORE. THERE IS A WARM FRONT WITH
THIS STREAM OF MOISTURE...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY OFFSHORE. THE
MODELS INDICATE WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THIS MOISTURE AND WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH AND THE CLOUDS BREAK UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT... THINK
THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LESS EXTENSIVE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MUCH IN THE
SOUTH NEAR EUGENE. HAVE BOOSTED MIN TEMPS A BIT TONIGHT AS A RESULT.
THE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST AT SOME LIGHT RAIN CATCHING THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOME SPRINKLES POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST AND LOCALLY INLAND
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS WELL.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AND SHARPENS ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY... THE
CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER THE
MODEL CHANGES WE ARE SEEING INDICATE THAT THE EAST WIND WILL BE
SLOWER IN DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY...AND WITH LESS FOG EXPECTED...HAVE
RAISED MAX TEMPS A BIT FOR SUNDAY.

THE MODELS SHOW THE EAST WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE GORGE IN
EARNEST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH GRADIENTS THROUGH THE GORGE OF AROUND 7
MB. THIS WOULD SUPPORT GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH AT CORBETT AND ROOSTER
ROCK...AND HIGHER...PERHAPS 60 TO 70 MPH AT CROWN POINT. WE SHOULD
SEE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP IN MOST OF THE INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM
THE GORGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK OUT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOONS. THIS WILL SUPPRESS MAX TEMPS BEGINNING MONDAY IN THOSE
AREAS... SUCH AS AROUND EUGENE AND NORTH OF KELSO.

AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE GORGE...LOOK FOR PERSISTENT LOW
CLOUDS AND LOCAL FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR PARKDALE AND HOOD RIVER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BEYOND.

THE EAST WIND NEAR PORTLAND WILL HELP THAT AREA WARM UP INTO THE 50S
MONDAY...BUT THAT WILL BE NOT AS WARM AS THE COAST...THE
FOOTHILLS...AND COAST RANGE WHERE SOME 60S ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE THE
VALLEY INVERSIONS.

THERE IS NO EAST WIND SUPPORT AT 850 MB AND 700 MB WITH THIS EAST
WIND EVENT...AND IN FACT THE WINDS ARE LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY AT THOSE
LEVELS. THIS SUPPORTS THE INVERSION IDEA AND A CRITICAL LEVEL ABOVE
THE GAP FLOW. THUS THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY A GAP FLOW EVENT. EXPECT
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE VALLEYS AWAY
FROM THE COLUMBIA RIVER THAT COULD PERSIST A WHILE IN THE AFTERNOONS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH MUCH LESS NEAR PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST COUNTY AREAS.

WE SEE A NEAR REPEAT ON TUESDAY OF THE WEATHER FROM MONDAY. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ONE MORE DRY OFFSHORE
FLOW DAY TUESDAY WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE
COLUMBIA GORGE. THE MODELS ARE SAYING THE FIRST SYSTEM TRYING TO
BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN A LOT AS IT ARRIVES AT THE COAST
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF SYSTEMS THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND THAT WILL BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF RAIN AT TIMES TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON...THOUGH SOME DRY AND MILD PERIODS APPEAR INTERSPERSED.
TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...LIKELY THICKENING A
BIT BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THESE CLOUDS MAY PREVENT
WIDESPREAD FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING...BUT CANNOT RULE
SOME LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS STILL DEVELOPING AT SEVERAL OF OUR TAF
SITES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS SUCH TIMING AND WHICH
SITES WILL EXPERIENCE THE MOST SEVERE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS REMAINS
LOW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OFFSHORE
WILL BRING PERIODS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH
MAY LIMIT FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO ALLOW AT LEAST SOME FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP...BUT WHETHER THEY WILL BE BRIEF OR PROLONGED
AND IN THE MVFR OR IFR CATEGORY IS RATHER UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
/NEUMAN
&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
AND FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY THE OUTER
NORTHERN WATERS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY ONLY PEAK AROUND 25
KT THOUGH. AN OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...AND LIKELY LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
WARM FRONT IS MODELED TO BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW 10 FT THIS EVENING. SEAS LOOK TO CLIMB BACK
ABOVE 10 FT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE RELAXING A BIT TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF LARGE AND LONGER PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELLS LOOK TO BRING SEAS WELL INTO THE TEENS LATE NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM PST SUNDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PS
     THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     7 PM PST THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     1 AM TO 6 AM PST SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 062218
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
218 PM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest Sunday
bringing dry weather and light winds. Dry and mild conditions are
expected for the first half of the week. The chance for light
rain will return Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday...Ridge of high pressure building over the area
with the ridge placement just west of the Washington Cascades is
positioned in such a way as to allow minor disturbances and
moisture to flux through it and overtop it and move through
Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho during this time interval.
Since the disturbances are very weak and the moisture fairly
limited except at the middle and upper levels the probabilities of
precipitation remain quite low and confined primarily to the
northern periphery of the mountain zones but sky cover forecast
will reflect the presence of the moisture and disturbances fluxing
through with varable periods of cloud cover ranging from Partly
cloudy to cloudy. With the low amplitude of the ridge in the
vicinity and the lower level winds tending to have an easterly
component the forecast temperatures will be slightly on the warm
side of what would be considered normal for this time of year.
/Pelatti

Sunday night through Saturday...Model agreement suggests high
confidence of dry and stable conditions over the region through
Wednesday as an upper level ridge builds and becomes established.
This rideg will probably not stick around long enough to allow
significant air quality deterioration...but areas of fog and low
clouds will become increasingly common especially in the morning
hours through the middle of the week. The Palouse and points south
will benefit from a dry downslope breeze and should experience
considerable sunshine. Temperatures will run slightly above
average for this time of year and may be downright mild during the
days depending on sunshine prevalence.

On or about Thursday the latest GFS and ECMWF models are in
surprisingly good agreement for that far out in depicting a
breakdown of this ridge featuring a pair of cold
fronts...probably bearing mountain snow and valley rain
showers...the first one passing through Wednesday night and the
second on Friday night. This will herald a return to a more active
and progressive pattern. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A bit of slow stratus clouds still remains this morning
but primarily it is middle and high clouds streaming over the top
and through the ridge moving into the area as the trof responsible
for last nights increased winds and generally light precipitation
moves away and exits to the east. The ridge will remain for some
time so the forecast has some varying degrees of middle and high
clouds remaining as well with the low level winds becoming
generally more light and variable. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        28  42  30  45  31  46 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  26  42  31  46  32  47 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Pullman        30  46  34  51  35  53 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       32  52  37  55  36  56 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Colville       27  37  30  41  31  43 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      27  38  30  41  32  44 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        26  39  31  45  32  48 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     29  44  29  45  31  47 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      29  39  30  40  31  42 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           26  35  29  38  29  40 /   0  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 061742
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
942 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be breezy with rain and snow showers over the
mountains of the Idaho Panhandle and over the Cascades. Strong
high pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest Sunday
bringing dry weather and light winds. Mild high pressure is
expected for the first half of the week. The chance for light rain
will return Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updates to the morning forecast include warming the forecast high
temperatures a few degrees and reworking some of the cloud cover
overhead this morning as a combination of middle and upper level
clouds streaming through and over the top of the ridge building
into the area is overrunning some lower level stratus clouds, but
not as much as was prevalent in the area a day or more ago. With
the upper level winds peaking overnight and decreasing through the
day this morning as the trof/weather disturbance associated with
them exits to the east there will be some gusts to the afternoon
winds but not to the degree which occurred overnight. /Pelatti



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A bit of slow stratus clouds still remains this morning
but primarily it is middle and high clouds streaming over the top
and through the ridge moving into the area as the trof responsible
for last nights increased winds and generally light precipitation
moves away and exits to the east. The ridge will remain for some
time so the forecast has some varying degrees of middle and high
clouds remaining as well with the low level winds becoming
generally more light and variable. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        44  28  40  30  45  31 /  10   0  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  43  26  39  31  46  32 /  10   0  10  10   0   0
Pullman        45  30  44  34  50  35 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Lewiston       53  32  50  37  52  36 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Colville       40  27  36  30  41  31 /  10   0  10  10   0   0
Sandpoint      40  27  36  30  41  32 /  20  10  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        38  26  37  31  45  32 /  40  10  10  10   0   0
Moses Lake     47  29  43  29  45  31 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      42  29  38  30  41  31 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Omak           43  26  34  29  37  29 /   0   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 061725
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
925 AM PST SAT FEB  6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN INITIALLY MODEST UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE SPREADING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY...WITH SOME CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE
BRUSHING SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHARPEN AND BUILD ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW PICKING UP THROUGH THE GORGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE FIRST SYSTEM TRYING
TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE COAST
WEDNESDAY...THEN SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
BRINGING PRECIPITATION BACK TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON AT TIMES DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...A MODEST UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ONSHORE TODAY...WITH BETTER WEATHER OVER
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY AS COMPARED TO LATE
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS FROM THE
NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM THAT IS FLOWING OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND PROBABLY TONIGHT. THE
MODELS ARE A BIT SPARSE ON ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS...WITH THE
TYPICALLY WETTER/HIGHER RH NAM12 MODEL HAVING THE MOST. FEEL ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE NEAR
THE NORTH COAST INTO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES TODAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.

THE AREAS OF FOG THAT FORMED DOWN THE VALLEY WAS CLEARING LATE THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD ALL BE GONE SHORTLY. STILL HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF
SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING... BUT
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS FLOWING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE MAY GET IN THE WAY.

WILL ALSO KEEP A FEW SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTHERN CASCADES TODAY AS
MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT FROM FRIDAY IS HUNG UP THERE.

THE UPPER RIDGE SHARPENS AND BUILDS AS IT MOVES ONSHORE SUNDAY. THIS
SHOULD BRING SOME CLEARING OF THE MIDDLE CLOUD COVER AFTER ANY FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS BREAK UP. IN ADDITION...OFFSHORE GRADIENTS START TO
DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY AND THEN ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
GORGE. THIS WILL BRING STRONG EAST WINDS IN THE WESTERN GORGE AND
BLUSTERY EAST WINDS IN PARTS OF PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER METRO AREAS.
THERE IS NO EAST WIND SUPPORT AT 850 MB AND 700 MB...AND IN FACT THE
WINDS ARE LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS SUPPORTS THE INVERSION IDEA AND A
CRITICAL LEVEL ABOVE THE GAP FLOW. THUS THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY A GAP
FLOW EVENT. EXPECT AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN
THE VALLEYS AWAY FROM THE COLUMBIA RIVER THAT COULD PERSIST A WHILE
IN THE AFTERNOONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND MUCH LESS NEAR PORTLAND
AND VANCOUVER.

AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE GORGE...LOOK FOR PERSISTENT LOW
CLOUDS AND LOCAL FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR PARKDALE AND HOOD RIVER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BEYOND.

THE WARMING THAT BEGINS IN THE COAST RANGE AND FOOTHILLS ON SUNDAY
DUE TO THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND THE PEAK
OF THE INVERSION ON MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOWER TO MID 60S
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MID LEVEL SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND IN THE COAST
MTNS. THE LOW SUN ANGLE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY AND THE EAST WINDS THROUGH
THE GORGE WILL WORK TO MAINTAIN THE VALLEY INVERSIONS AND COOLER
TEMPS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ONE MORE DRY OFFSHORE FLOW
DAY TUESDAY WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COLUMBIA
GORGE. THE MODELS ARE SAYING THE FIRST SYSTEM TRYING TO BREAK DOWN
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN A LOT AS IT ARRIVES AT THE COAST WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF SYSTEMS THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND THAT WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
RAIN AT TIMES TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS LINGERING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS MORNING...EXPECT MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD
TO MANY TAF SITES DETERIORATING INTO LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY WHERE THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. THE
MAIN THING THAT COULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG FROM DEVELOPING WILL BE
THE OCCASIONAL PASSAGE OF VARYING CLOUD DECKS IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY
WILL BRING PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS AND
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SUNDAY...AND LIKELY LINGERING THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z SUNDAY. /NEUMAN
&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
AND FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY THE OUTER
NORTHERN WATERS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY ONLY PEAK AROUND 25
KT THOUGH. AN OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS SUNDAY AND WILL LIKELY
LAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER WARM FRONT IS MODELED TO
BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW 10 FT THIS EVENING. SEAS LOOK TO CLIMB BACK
ABOVE 10 FT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE RELAXING A BIT TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF LARGE AND LONGER PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELLS LOOK TO BRING SEAS WELL INTO THE TEENS LATE NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM PST SUNDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST
     THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     7 PM PST THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM
     TO 6 AM PST SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 061725
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
925 AM PST SAT FEB  6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN INITIALLY MODEST UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE SPREADING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY...WITH SOME CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE
BRUSHING SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHARPEN AND BUILD ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW PICKING UP THROUGH THE GORGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE FIRST SYSTEM TRYING
TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE COAST
WEDNESDAY...THEN SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
BRINGING PRECIPITATION BACK TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON AT TIMES DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...A MODEST UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ONSHORE TODAY...WITH BETTER WEATHER OVER
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY AS COMPARED TO LATE
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS FROM THE
NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM THAT IS FLOWING OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND PROBABLY TONIGHT. THE
MODELS ARE A BIT SPARSE ON ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS...WITH THE
TYPICALLY WETTER/HIGHER RH NAM12 MODEL HAVING THE MOST. FEEL ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE NEAR
THE NORTH COAST INTO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES TODAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.

THE AREAS OF FOG THAT FORMED DOWN THE VALLEY WAS CLEARING LATE THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD ALL BE GONE SHORTLY. STILL HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF
SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING... BUT
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS FLOWING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE MAY GET IN THE WAY.

WILL ALSO KEEP A FEW SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTHERN CASCADES TODAY AS
MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT FROM FRIDAY IS HUNG UP THERE.

THE UPPER RIDGE SHARPENS AND BUILDS AS IT MOVES ONSHORE SUNDAY. THIS
SHOULD BRING SOME CLEARING OF THE MIDDLE CLOUD COVER AFTER ANY FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS BREAK UP. IN ADDITION...OFFSHORE GRADIENTS START TO
DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY AND THEN ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
GORGE. THIS WILL BRING STRONG EAST WINDS IN THE WESTERN GORGE AND
BLUSTERY EAST WINDS IN PARTS OF PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER METRO AREAS.
THERE IS NO EAST WIND SUPPORT AT 850 MB AND 700 MB...AND IN FACT THE
WINDS ARE LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS SUPPORTS THE INVERSION IDEA AND A
CRITICAL LEVEL ABOVE THE GAP FLOW. THUS THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY A GAP
FLOW EVENT. EXPECT AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN
THE VALLEYS AWAY FROM THE COLUMBIA RIVER THAT COULD PERSIST A WHILE
IN THE AFTERNOONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND MUCH LESS NEAR PORTLAND
AND VANCOUVER.

AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE GORGE...LOOK FOR PERSISTENT LOW
CLOUDS AND LOCAL FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR PARKDALE AND HOOD RIVER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BEYOND.

THE WARMING THAT BEGINS IN THE COAST RANGE AND FOOTHILLS ON SUNDAY
DUE TO THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND THE PEAK
OF THE INVERSION ON MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOWER TO MID 60S
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MID LEVEL SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND IN THE COAST
MTNS. THE LOW SUN ANGLE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY AND THE EAST WINDS THROUGH
THE GORGE WILL WORK TO MAINTAIN THE VALLEY INVERSIONS AND COOLER
TEMPS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ONE MORE DRY OFFSHORE FLOW
DAY TUESDAY WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COLUMBIA
GORGE. THE MODELS ARE SAYING THE FIRST SYSTEM TRYING TO BREAK DOWN
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN A LOT AS IT ARRIVES AT THE COAST WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF SYSTEMS THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND THAT WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
RAIN AT TIMES TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS LINGERING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS MORNING...EXPECT MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD
TO MANY TAF SITES DETERIORATING INTO LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY WHERE THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. THE
MAIN THING THAT COULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG FROM DEVELOPING WILL BE
THE OCCASIONAL PASSAGE OF VARYING CLOUD DECKS IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY
WILL BRING PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS AND
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SUNDAY...AND LIKELY LINGERING THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z SUNDAY. /NEUMAN
&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
AND FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY THE OUTER
NORTHERN WATERS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY ONLY PEAK AROUND 25
KT THOUGH. AN OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS SUNDAY AND WILL LIKELY
LAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER WARM FRONT IS MODELED TO
BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW 10 FT THIS EVENING. SEAS LOOK TO CLIMB BACK
ABOVE 10 FT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE RELAXING A BIT TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF LARGE AND LONGER PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELLS LOOK TO BRING SEAS WELL INTO THE TEENS LATE NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM PST SUNDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST
     THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     7 PM PST THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM
     TO 6 AM PST SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 061724
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CLIP THE COAST AND NORTH CASCADES ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT DRY AND MILD WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST BY
WEDNESDAY OPENING THE DOOR TO MORE FRONTAL SYSTEMS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NUDGES IN AND ONSHORE FLOW EASES. EXPECT
HIGHS NEAR 50 DEGREES TODAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OVER WESTERN WA ON SUNDAY WHILE A
WARM FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. LIGHT PRECIP MAY
CLIP THE COAST/OLYMPICS AND NORTH CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE PAC NW ON MONDAY FOR
DRY AND MILD WEATHER. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE WITH SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL BUMP UPWARDS A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S TO LOWER 60S. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS SHIFTING
EAST ON TUESDAY BUT THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES RESULTING
IN ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY. ONCE AGAIN THE COAST WILL BE THE WARMEST
LOCATION. MODEL SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE AFTER TUESDAY WITH THE
GFS BRINGING A VERY WEAK SYSTEM INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF LEAVES THIS SYSTEM OFFSHORE AND THE CANADIAN IS A COMPROMISE
WITH SOME RAIN ON THE COAST. LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN THE 00Z MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS AND
CANADIAN HAVE THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THERE IS BETTER
CONSENSUS ON FRIDAY WILL ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATING SOME
PRECIPITATION. CURRENT FORECAST HAS CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE LACK OF
MODEL CONSISTENCY WILL STAY WITH THIS SCENARIO IN THE MORNING
FORECAST PACKAGE. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...WILL BE A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND TODAY IN TERMS OF
LIFTING AND SCATTERING OF IFR/MVFR CLOUD CIGS. IMPROVEMENT WILL BE
SLOW UNTIL 21Z...THEN THE IMPROVING TREND WILL ACCELERATE AFTER
THAT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE LATE AFTN AND EVNG.
OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH...
AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME WEAKLY OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ON
SUNDAY...WARM ADVECTION LIFT AND MOISTURE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING CLOUDS AND LOTS OF MVFR CIGS ON
SUNDAY AFTN...WITH SOME -RA OVER THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND THE
INTERIOR NORTH OF SEATTLE. LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS DRYING THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN MOISTENING ON SUNDAY. MODERATE WEST WINDS ALOFT.

KSEA...IFR CIGS BELOW 020 AS OF 17Z WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...BECOMING
SCATTERED BY 19Z. CIGS IN THE 020-030 RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL
ABOUT 22Z. AFTER THAT...A DRYING EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SFC WIND
WILL DEVELOP AND QUICKLY DISSIPATE ANY REMAINING CLOUDS BELOW 050.
MERELY SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE EVENING RUSH. ON SUNDAY...CIGS
WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE AND LIFT AS A
WARMER AIR MASS SPREAD IN. CIGS OF 020-040 SHOULD BE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.HANER

&&

.MARINE...GRADIENTS HAVE REALLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND
NO SMALL CRAFT WINDS ARE OBSERVED ANY MORE. HAVE THEREFORE DROPPED
ALL WIND-RELATED MARINE ADVISORIES. HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND FALL BELOW 10 FEET TONIGHT.

HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUE NGT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES SUNDAY ONWARD NEAR GAPS IN
THE TERRAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY IN THE OUTER
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HANER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...UPON FURTHER REVIEW IT TURNS OUT SEATTLE SET A RECORD
FOR THE MOST PRECIPITATION FROM DECEMBER 1ST THROUGH JANUARY 31ST
WITH 18.66 INCHES. THE OLD RECORD WAS 18.51 INCHES SET IN
2005-06. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS COAST AND WEST
     ENTRANCE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 061724
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CLIP THE COAST AND NORTH CASCADES ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT DRY AND MILD WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST BY
WEDNESDAY OPENING THE DOOR TO MORE FRONTAL SYSTEMS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NUDGES IN AND ONSHORE FLOW EASES. EXPECT
HIGHS NEAR 50 DEGREES TODAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OVER WESTERN WA ON SUNDAY WHILE A
WARM FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. LIGHT PRECIP MAY
CLIP THE COAST/OLYMPICS AND NORTH CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE PAC NW ON MONDAY FOR
DRY AND MILD WEATHER. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE WITH SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL BUMP UPWARDS A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S TO LOWER 60S. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS SHIFTING
EAST ON TUESDAY BUT THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES RESULTING
IN ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY. ONCE AGAIN THE COAST WILL BE THE WARMEST
LOCATION. MODEL SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE AFTER TUESDAY WITH THE
GFS BRINGING A VERY WEAK SYSTEM INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF LEAVES THIS SYSTEM OFFSHORE AND THE CANADIAN IS A COMPROMISE
WITH SOME RAIN ON THE COAST. LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN THE 00Z MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS AND
CANADIAN HAVE THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THERE IS BETTER
CONSENSUS ON FRIDAY WILL ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATING SOME
PRECIPITATION. CURRENT FORECAST HAS CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE LACK OF
MODEL CONSISTENCY WILL STAY WITH THIS SCENARIO IN THE MORNING
FORECAST PACKAGE. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...WILL BE A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND TODAY IN TERMS OF
LIFTING AND SCATTERING OF IFR/MVFR CLOUD CIGS. IMPROVEMENT WILL BE
SLOW UNTIL 21Z...THEN THE IMPROVING TREND WILL ACCELERATE AFTER
THAT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE LATE AFTN AND EVNG.
OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH...
AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME WEAKLY OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ON
SUNDAY...WARM ADVECTION LIFT AND MOISTURE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING CLOUDS AND LOTS OF MVFR CIGS ON
SUNDAY AFTN...WITH SOME -RA OVER THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND THE
INTERIOR NORTH OF SEATTLE. LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS DRYING THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN MOISTENING ON SUNDAY. MODERATE WEST WINDS ALOFT.

KSEA...IFR CIGS BELOW 020 AS OF 17Z WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...BECOMING
SCATTERED BY 19Z. CIGS IN THE 020-030 RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL
ABOUT 22Z. AFTER THAT...A DRYING EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SFC WIND
WILL DEVELOP AND QUICKLY DISSIPATE ANY REMAINING CLOUDS BELOW 050.
MERELY SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE EVENING RUSH. ON SUNDAY...CIGS
WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE AND LIFT AS A
WARMER AIR MASS SPREAD IN. CIGS OF 020-040 SHOULD BE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.HANER

&&

.MARINE...GRADIENTS HAVE REALLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND
NO SMALL CRAFT WINDS ARE OBSERVED ANY MORE. HAVE THEREFORE DROPPED
ALL WIND-RELATED MARINE ADVISORIES. HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND FALL BELOW 10 FEET TONIGHT.

HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUE NGT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES SUNDAY ONWARD NEAR GAPS IN
THE TERRAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY IN THE OUTER
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HANER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...UPON FURTHER REVIEW IT TURNS OUT SEATTLE SET A RECORD
FOR THE MOST PRECIPITATION FROM DECEMBER 1ST THROUGH JANUARY 31ST
WITH 18.66 INCHES. THE OLD RECORD WAS 18.51 INCHES SET IN
2005-06. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS COAST AND WEST
     ENTRANCE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KOTX 061153
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
353 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be breezy with rain and snow showers over the
mountains of the Idaho Panhandle and over the Cascades. Strong
high pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest Sunday
bringing dry weather and light winds. Mild high pressure is
expected for the first half of the week. The chance for light rain
will return Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today: A narrow band of precipitation (along a quick moving
frontal system) will impact the Idaho Panhandle early this
morning. As of 2 AM, moderate snow was falling over the mountains
of Shoshone county above 3500 feet. DOT cameras at Lookout Pass
showed accumulations on Interstate 90 at 4700 feet. The most
significant snow at Lookout Pass will occur between now and
sunrise with 2 to 4 inches expected before snow decreases to snow
showers by mid morning. Post frontal snow showers will also occur
over the northern Cascades early this morning. Westerlies of 45 to
55kts at 700mb will push some of these convective bands as far
east as Plain, Mazama, Twisp, and upper portions of Lake Chelan.
However, accumulations this morning should be an inch or less
given the mild temps and transient nature of these showers. Even
web cameras at Stevens Pass suggest the snow is having a tough
time accumulating so the Winter Weather Advisory for the East
Slopes of the Northern Cascades will be cancelled.

Breezy southwest winds will make it feel chilly today despite
above average temperatures. A few wind sensors gusted into the
40-45mph range with the passage of the cold front early this
morning, but the gustiness has abated a bit over the Palouse, West
Plains, and Upper Columbia Basin. Our surface pressure gradients
will relax through the day today, but we may see a resurgence of
gusts to 35 mph around mid morning following sunrise. By early
evening, winds region-wide should be 5 mph or less as surface high
pressure quickly becomes established under a building upper ridge.

Tonight and Sunday: Our upper ridge will have a good deal of mid
and upper level moisture associated with it tonight into Sunday.
Looking at model soundings from the GFS and NAM, it is tough to
tell how thick clouds will be tonight into Sunday. The sounding
carry a good deal of moisture, but don`t saturate suggesting
transient bands of clouds. A bit of very light precipitation is
depicted by the NAM and GFS Sunday afternoon and evening over the
Cascades, Okanogan Highlands, and northeast Washington mountains.
A 20-30 percent chance of light rain and snow has been added to
the forecast with little mountain snow accumulation expected.
/GKoch

Sunday night through Friday: Models continue to show an upper
ridge building Monday and Tuesday. This will lead to strengthening
temperature inversions with areas of low clouds and patchy fog
forming in the valleys. Above the inversion mostly clear skies and
mild conditions will occur in the mountains as 850mb temperatures
rise into the 5-10C range. The palouse, Lewiston area, possibly
extending west towards Ritzville will benefit from easterly
downslope boundary layer winds which keeps these areas out of the
low clouds with very mild temps in the lower to mid 50s. A few
record highs are possible. The ridge begins to weaken on Wednesday
however mild temperatures will continue. Thursday and Friday an
upper trough begins to approach the Washington and Oregon coast.
Models disagree with the details of when the next round of
potential precipitation arrives so did not make many changes.
Prevailing southwest flow however should result in a continuation
of mild temperatures and high snow levels when precip does arrive.
JW

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Strong mixing behind a departing cold front will
disperse the low clouds that have plagued the region for days. VFR
conditions are expected at the TAF sites today and most of
tonight. There may be a bit of fog development in the sheltered
areas of northeast Washington and north Idaho overnight into
Sunday morning, but that is at the outer portions of this 24 hour
TAF. /GKoch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        40  28  40  30  45  31 /  10   0  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  40  26  39  31  46  32 /  20   0  10  10   0   0
Pullman        42  30  44  34  50  35 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Lewiston       50  32  50  37  52  36 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Colville       39  27  36  30  41  31 /  10   0  10  10   0   0
Sandpoint      39  27  36  30  41  32 /  30  10  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        36  26  37  31  45  32 /  60  10  10  10   0   0
Moses Lake     46  29  43  29  45  31 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee      42  29  38  30  41  31 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           40  26  34  29  37  29 /   0   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 061153
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
353 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be breezy with rain and snow showers over the
mountains of the Idaho Panhandle and over the Cascades. Strong
high pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest Sunday
bringing dry weather and light winds. Mild high pressure is
expected for the first half of the week. The chance for light rain
will return Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today: A narrow band of precipitation (along a quick moving
frontal system) will impact the Idaho Panhandle early this
morning. As of 2 AM, moderate snow was falling over the mountains
of Shoshone county above 3500 feet. DOT cameras at Lookout Pass
showed accumulations on Interstate 90 at 4700 feet. The most
significant snow at Lookout Pass will occur between now and
sunrise with 2 to 4 inches expected before snow decreases to snow
showers by mid morning. Post frontal snow showers will also occur
over the northern Cascades early this morning. Westerlies of 45 to
55kts at 700mb will push some of these convective bands as far
east as Plain, Mazama, Twisp, and upper portions of Lake Chelan.
However, accumulations this morning should be an inch or less
given the mild temps and transient nature of these showers. Even
web cameras at Stevens Pass suggest the snow is having a tough
time accumulating so the Winter Weather Advisory for the East
Slopes of the Northern Cascades will be cancelled.

Breezy southwest winds will make it feel chilly today despite
above average temperatures. A few wind sensors gusted into the
40-45mph range with the passage of the cold front early this
morning, but the gustiness has abated a bit over the Palouse, West
Plains, and Upper Columbia Basin. Our surface pressure gradients
will relax through the day today, but we may see a resurgence of
gusts to 35 mph around mid morning following sunrise. By early
evening, winds region-wide should be 5 mph or less as surface high
pressure quickly becomes established under a building upper ridge.

Tonight and Sunday: Our upper ridge will have a good deal of mid
and upper level moisture associated with it tonight into Sunday.
Looking at model soundings from the GFS and NAM, it is tough to
tell how thick clouds will be tonight into Sunday. The sounding
carry a good deal of moisture, but don`t saturate suggesting
transient bands of clouds. A bit of very light precipitation is
depicted by the NAM and GFS Sunday afternoon and evening over the
Cascades, Okanogan Highlands, and northeast Washington mountains.
A 20-30 percent chance of light rain and snow has been added to
the forecast with little mountain snow accumulation expected.
/GKoch

Sunday night through Friday: Models continue to show an upper
ridge building Monday and Tuesday. This will lead to strengthening
temperature inversions with areas of low clouds and patchy fog
forming in the valleys. Above the inversion mostly clear skies and
mild conditions will occur in the mountains as 850mb temperatures
rise into the 5-10C range. The palouse, Lewiston area, possibly
extending west towards Ritzville will benefit from easterly
downslope boundary layer winds which keeps these areas out of the
low clouds with very mild temps in the lower to mid 50s. A few
record highs are possible. The ridge begins to weaken on Wednesday
however mild temperatures will continue. Thursday and Friday an
upper trough begins to approach the Washington and Oregon coast.
Models disagree with the details of when the next round of
potential precipitation arrives so did not make many changes.
Prevailing southwest flow however should result in a continuation
of mild temperatures and high snow levels when precip does arrive.
JW

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Strong mixing behind a departing cold front will
disperse the low clouds that have plagued the region for days. VFR
conditions are expected at the TAF sites today and most of
tonight. There may be a bit of fog development in the sheltered
areas of northeast Washington and north Idaho overnight into
Sunday morning, but that is at the outer portions of this 24 hour
TAF. /GKoch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        40  28  40  30  45  31 /  10   0  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  40  26  39  31  46  32 /  20   0  10  10   0   0
Pullman        42  30  44  34  50  35 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Lewiston       50  32  50  37  52  36 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Colville       39  27  36  30  41  31 /  10   0  10  10   0   0
Sandpoint      39  27  36  30  41  32 /  30  10  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        36  26  37  31  45  32 /  60  10  10  10   0   0
Moses Lake     46  29  43  29  45  31 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee      42  29  38  30  41  31 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           40  26  34  29  37  29 /   0   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 061152
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
352 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CLIP THE COAST AND NORTH CASCADES ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT DRY AND MILD WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST BY
WEDNESDAY OPENING THE DOOR TO MORE FRONTAL SYSTEMS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT IS
ALREADY OUT OF THE STATE. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS STILL EVIDENT
OFFSHORE BUT WITH SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION GOING ON WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT WARM FRONT THE SHOWERS ARE DECREASING.
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
KEEPING THE CENTRAL SOUND RAIN SHADOWED WITH AN AREA OF
CONVERGENCE IN THE CASCADES NORTH OF STEVENS PASS AND PLENTY OF
SHOWERS WEST OF PUGET SOUND AT 330 AM. TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM WERE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

TODAY LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STARTING TO BUILD OFF THE COAST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY NEAR 140W. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING
AND BECOME CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOMING LIGHT LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. STILL SOME SLIGHTLY COOL AIR LEFT IN THE WAKE
OF YESTERDAYS FRONT SO EVEN WITH A LITTLE SUNSHINE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...AROUND 50 DEGREES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE KEEPS BUILDING BETWEEN 130W AND THE COASTLINE
TONIGHT WHILE THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. WITH THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURES OFFSHORE LOW
LEVEL FLOW GOING OFFSHORE. WARM FRONT CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPREAD SOME
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT KEEPING THE
WORDING IN THE FORECAST MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A COLORFUL SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE 30S TO
MID 40S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ON SUNDAY AND SHIFT EAST OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON. 500 MB HEIGHTS BY 00Z MONDAY IN THE UPPER 570
DMS TO LOWER 580 DMS. STILL A CHANCE THE WARM FRONT MOVING OVER
THE RIDGE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COAST
AND NORTH CASCADES. WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THESE LOCATIONS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 50S.

WARM FRONT MOVING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RIGHT OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON IN MONDAY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE A
TOUCH. LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OFFSHORE. END RESULT WILL BE A WARM
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE RECORD HIGH OF 61 DEGREES AT KUIL WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF
BEING BROKEN WITH HIGHS ON THE COAST IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. 50S
AND LOWER 60S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE REST OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON...AROUND WHAT THE NORMAL HIGHS WOULD BE FOR THE MIDDLE
OF APRIL.

.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS SHIFTING EAST ON TUESDAY BUT
THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES RESULTING IN ANOTHER VERY
WARM DAY. ONCE AGAIN THE COAST WILL BE THE WARMEST LOCATION. MODEL
SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE AFTER TUESDAY WITH THE GFS BRINGING A
VERY WEAK SYSTEM INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF LEAVES THIS
SYSTEM OFFSHORE AND THE CANADIAN IS A COMPROMISE WITH SOME RAIN ON
THE COAST. LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING A FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN HAVE
THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THERE IS BETTER CONSENSUS
ON FRIDAY WILL ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATING SOME PRECIPITATION.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE LACK OF MODEL
CONSISTENCY WILL STAY WITH THIS SCENARIO IN THE MORNING FORECAST
PACKAGE. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST OF THE AREA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY.

CIGS REMAIN VFR TO MVFR AND ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT
WAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL OUT THERE...MAY SEE CIGS
DIP INTO MVFR TO IFR RANGE IN LOCATIONS THAT SEE PRECIP. AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON...EXPECTING
DRYING CONDITIONS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY. SMR

KSEA...CIGS GENERALLY VFR...HOWEVER THERE IS A PATCH OF SHOWERS
HEADING TOWARD KSEA WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS TO MVFR AS IT PASSES BY.
TIMING ON THIS LOOKS TO BE BY 12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DOMINANT. WINDS TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING EASTERLY BY EVENING. SPEEDS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE...10-14 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS EARLY THIS
MORNING...GENERALLY 8-12 KTS BY LATE MORNING AND STEADYING OFF AT 4-
7 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. SMR

&&

.MARINE...CURRENT BATCH OF GALES AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
GENERALLY LEFT INTACT WITH MORNING FORECAST. COASTAL WATERS ARE JUST
SHY OF SMALL CRAFT...TOO CLOSE FOR COMFORT...AND CENTRAL AND EAST
STRAIT ARE SIMILARLY JUST SHY OF GALE. REMAINING WATERS HAVE
LOCATIONS MEETING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS...SO TIMING ON
HEADLINES LOOKS OKAY AT THIS TIME. DID HOIST A SMALL CRAFT TO FOLLOW
THE GALE WARNING FOR CENTRAL STRAIT...WHILE EASTERN STRAIT LOOKS
LIKE IT MIGHT BE OKAY FOR NO ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS.

SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...PUTTING TO
REST ANY CONCERNS REGARDING SURF OR BEACH EROSION FOR THE TIME BEING.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN LIGHT TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES SUNDAY ONWARD NEAR
GAPS IN THE TERRAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY IN THE
OUTER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS. SMR

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE NORTH FORK OF THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IS RECEDING
AND THE SOUTH FORK IS CRESTING EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MAIN STEM
OF THE SKOKOMISH IS SLOWLY RISING BUT IS NEARLY A FOOT BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. WITH LITTLE RAIN EXPECTED TODAY WILL END THE WATCH FOR
MASON COUNTY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

IN ADDITION WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LEFT BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS
DRY WILL ALLOW THE LANDSLIDE THREAT STATEMENT TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM.
FELTON

&&

.CLIMATE...UPON FURTHER REVIEW IT TURNS OUT SEATTLE SET A RECORD
FOR THE MOST PRECIPITATION FROM DECEMBER 1ST THROUGH JANUARY 31ST
WITH 18.66 INCHES. THE OLD RECORD WAS 18.51 INCHES SET IN
2005-06. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO
     60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
     SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
     TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
     FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT
     10 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL U.S.
     WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ADMIRALTY INLET-NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN
     JUAN ISLANDS-PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 061152
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
352 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CLIP THE COAST AND NORTH CASCADES ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT DRY AND MILD WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST BY
WEDNESDAY OPENING THE DOOR TO MORE FRONTAL SYSTEMS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT IS
ALREADY OUT OF THE STATE. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS STILL EVIDENT
OFFSHORE BUT WITH SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION GOING ON WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT WARM FRONT THE SHOWERS ARE DECREASING.
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
KEEPING THE CENTRAL SOUND RAIN SHADOWED WITH AN AREA OF
CONVERGENCE IN THE CASCADES NORTH OF STEVENS PASS AND PLENTY OF
SHOWERS WEST OF PUGET SOUND AT 330 AM. TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM WERE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

TODAY LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STARTING TO BUILD OFF THE COAST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY NEAR 140W. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING
AND BECOME CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOMING LIGHT LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. STILL SOME SLIGHTLY COOL AIR LEFT IN THE WAKE
OF YESTERDAYS FRONT SO EVEN WITH A LITTLE SUNSHINE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...AROUND 50 DEGREES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE KEEPS BUILDING BETWEEN 130W AND THE COASTLINE
TONIGHT WHILE THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. WITH THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURES OFFSHORE LOW
LEVEL FLOW GOING OFFSHORE. WARM FRONT CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPREAD SOME
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT KEEPING THE
WORDING IN THE FORECAST MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A COLORFUL SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE 30S TO
MID 40S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ON SUNDAY AND SHIFT EAST OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON. 500 MB HEIGHTS BY 00Z MONDAY IN THE UPPER 570
DMS TO LOWER 580 DMS. STILL A CHANCE THE WARM FRONT MOVING OVER
THE RIDGE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COAST
AND NORTH CASCADES. WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THESE LOCATIONS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 50S.

WARM FRONT MOVING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RIGHT OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON IN MONDAY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE A
TOUCH. LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OFFSHORE. END RESULT WILL BE A WARM
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE RECORD HIGH OF 61 DEGREES AT KUIL WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF
BEING BROKEN WITH HIGHS ON THE COAST IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. 50S
AND LOWER 60S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE REST OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON...AROUND WHAT THE NORMAL HIGHS WOULD BE FOR THE MIDDLE
OF APRIL.

.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS SHIFTING EAST ON TUESDAY BUT
THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES RESULTING IN ANOTHER VERY
WARM DAY. ONCE AGAIN THE COAST WILL BE THE WARMEST LOCATION. MODEL
SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE AFTER TUESDAY WITH THE GFS BRINGING A
VERY WEAK SYSTEM INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF LEAVES THIS
SYSTEM OFFSHORE AND THE CANADIAN IS A COMPROMISE WITH SOME RAIN ON
THE COAST. LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING A FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN HAVE
THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THERE IS BETTER CONSENSUS
ON FRIDAY WILL ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATING SOME PRECIPITATION.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE LACK OF MODEL
CONSISTENCY WILL STAY WITH THIS SCENARIO IN THE MORNING FORECAST
PACKAGE. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST OF THE AREA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY.

CIGS REMAIN VFR TO MVFR AND ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT
WAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL OUT THERE...MAY SEE CIGS
DIP INTO MVFR TO IFR RANGE IN LOCATIONS THAT SEE PRECIP. AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON...EXPECTING
DRYING CONDITIONS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY. SMR

KSEA...CIGS GENERALLY VFR...HOWEVER THERE IS A PATCH OF SHOWERS
HEADING TOWARD KSEA WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS TO MVFR AS IT PASSES BY.
TIMING ON THIS LOOKS TO BE BY 12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DOMINANT. WINDS TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING EASTERLY BY EVENING. SPEEDS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE...10-14 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS EARLY THIS
MORNING...GENERALLY 8-12 KTS BY LATE MORNING AND STEADYING OFF AT 4-
7 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. SMR

&&

.MARINE...CURRENT BATCH OF GALES AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
GENERALLY LEFT INTACT WITH MORNING FORECAST. COASTAL WATERS ARE JUST
SHY OF SMALL CRAFT...TOO CLOSE FOR COMFORT...AND CENTRAL AND EAST
STRAIT ARE SIMILARLY JUST SHY OF GALE. REMAINING WATERS HAVE
LOCATIONS MEETING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS...SO TIMING ON
HEADLINES LOOKS OKAY AT THIS TIME. DID HOIST A SMALL CRAFT TO FOLLOW
THE GALE WARNING FOR CENTRAL STRAIT...WHILE EASTERN STRAIT LOOKS
LIKE IT MIGHT BE OKAY FOR NO ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS.

SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...PUTTING TO
REST ANY CONCERNS REGARDING SURF OR BEACH EROSION FOR THE TIME BEING.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN LIGHT TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES SUNDAY ONWARD NEAR
GAPS IN THE TERRAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY IN THE
OUTER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS. SMR

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE NORTH FORK OF THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IS RECEDING
AND THE SOUTH FORK IS CRESTING EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MAIN STEM
OF THE SKOKOMISH IS SLOWLY RISING BUT IS NEARLY A FOOT BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. WITH LITTLE RAIN EXPECTED TODAY WILL END THE WATCH FOR
MASON COUNTY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

IN ADDITION WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LEFT BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS
DRY WILL ALLOW THE LANDSLIDE THREAT STATEMENT TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM.
FELTON

&&

.CLIMATE...UPON FURTHER REVIEW IT TURNS OUT SEATTLE SET A RECORD
FOR THE MOST PRECIPITATION FROM DECEMBER 1ST THROUGH JANUARY 31ST
WITH 18.66 INCHES. THE OLD RECORD WAS 18.51 INCHES SET IN
2005-06. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO
     60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
     SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
     TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
     FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT
     10 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL U.S.
     WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ADMIRALTY INLET-NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN
     JUAN ISLANDS-PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KSEW 061152
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
352 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CLIP THE COAST AND NORTH CASCADES ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT DRY AND MILD WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST BY
WEDNESDAY OPENING THE DOOR TO MORE FRONTAL SYSTEMS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT IS
ALREADY OUT OF THE STATE. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS STILL EVIDENT
OFFSHORE BUT WITH SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION GOING ON WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT WARM FRONT THE SHOWERS ARE DECREASING.
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
KEEPING THE CENTRAL SOUND RAIN SHADOWED WITH AN AREA OF
CONVERGENCE IN THE CASCADES NORTH OF STEVENS PASS AND PLENTY OF
SHOWERS WEST OF PUGET SOUND AT 330 AM. TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM WERE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

TODAY LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STARTING TO BUILD OFF THE COAST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY NEAR 140W. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING
AND BECOME CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOMING LIGHT LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. STILL SOME SLIGHTLY COOL AIR LEFT IN THE WAKE
OF YESTERDAYS FRONT SO EVEN WITH A LITTLE SUNSHINE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...AROUND 50 DEGREES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE KEEPS BUILDING BETWEEN 130W AND THE COASTLINE
TONIGHT WHILE THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. WITH THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURES OFFSHORE LOW
LEVEL FLOW GOING OFFSHORE. WARM FRONT CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPREAD SOME
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT KEEPING THE
WORDING IN THE FORECAST MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A COLORFUL SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE 30S TO
MID 40S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ON SUNDAY AND SHIFT EAST OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON. 500 MB HEIGHTS BY 00Z MONDAY IN THE UPPER 570
DMS TO LOWER 580 DMS. STILL A CHANCE THE WARM FRONT MOVING OVER
THE RIDGE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COAST
AND NORTH CASCADES. WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THESE LOCATIONS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 50S.

WARM FRONT MOVING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RIGHT OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON IN MONDAY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE A
TOUCH. LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OFFSHORE. END RESULT WILL BE A WARM
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE RECORD HIGH OF 61 DEGREES AT KUIL WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF
BEING BROKEN WITH HIGHS ON THE COAST IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. 50S
AND LOWER 60S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE REST OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON...AROUND WHAT THE NORMAL HIGHS WOULD BE FOR THE MIDDLE
OF APRIL.

.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS SHIFTING EAST ON TUESDAY BUT
THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES RESULTING IN ANOTHER VERY
WARM DAY. ONCE AGAIN THE COAST WILL BE THE WARMEST LOCATION. MODEL
SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE AFTER TUESDAY WITH THE GFS BRINGING A
VERY WEAK SYSTEM INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF LEAVES THIS
SYSTEM OFFSHORE AND THE CANADIAN IS A COMPROMISE WITH SOME RAIN ON
THE COAST. LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING A FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN HAVE
THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THERE IS BETTER CONSENSUS
ON FRIDAY WILL ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATING SOME PRECIPITATION.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE LACK OF MODEL
CONSISTENCY WILL STAY WITH THIS SCENARIO IN THE MORNING FORECAST
PACKAGE. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST OF THE AREA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY.

CIGS REMAIN VFR TO MVFR AND ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT
WAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL OUT THERE...MAY SEE CIGS
DIP INTO MVFR TO IFR RANGE IN LOCATIONS THAT SEE PRECIP. AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON...EXPECTING
DRYING CONDITIONS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY. SMR

KSEA...CIGS GENERALLY VFR...HOWEVER THERE IS A PATCH OF SHOWERS
HEADING TOWARD KSEA WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS TO MVFR AS IT PASSES BY.
TIMING ON THIS LOOKS TO BE BY 12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DOMINANT. WINDS TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING EASTERLY BY EVENING. SPEEDS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE...10-14 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS EARLY THIS
MORNING...GENERALLY 8-12 KTS BY LATE MORNING AND STEADYING OFF AT 4-
7 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. SMR

&&

.MARINE...CURRENT BATCH OF GALES AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
GENERALLY LEFT INTACT WITH MORNING FORECAST. COASTAL WATERS ARE JUST
SHY OF SMALL CRAFT...TOO CLOSE FOR COMFORT...AND CENTRAL AND EAST
STRAIT ARE SIMILARLY JUST SHY OF GALE. REMAINING WATERS HAVE
LOCATIONS MEETING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS...SO TIMING ON
HEADLINES LOOKS OKAY AT THIS TIME. DID HOIST A SMALL CRAFT TO FOLLOW
THE GALE WARNING FOR CENTRAL STRAIT...WHILE EASTERN STRAIT LOOKS
LIKE IT MIGHT BE OKAY FOR NO ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS.

SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...PUTTING TO
REST ANY CONCERNS REGARDING SURF OR BEACH EROSION FOR THE TIME BEING.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN LIGHT TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES SUNDAY ONWARD NEAR
GAPS IN THE TERRAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY IN THE
OUTER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS. SMR

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE NORTH FORK OF THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IS RECEDING
AND THE SOUTH FORK IS CRESTING EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MAIN STEM
OF THE SKOKOMISH IS SLOWLY RISING BUT IS NEARLY A FOOT BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. WITH LITTLE RAIN EXPECTED TODAY WILL END THE WATCH FOR
MASON COUNTY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

IN ADDITION WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LEFT BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS
DRY WILL ALLOW THE LANDSLIDE THREAT STATEMENT TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM.
FELTON

&&

.CLIMATE...UPON FURTHER REVIEW IT TURNS OUT SEATTLE SET A RECORD
FOR THE MOST PRECIPITATION FROM DECEMBER 1ST THROUGH JANUARY 31ST
WITH 18.66 INCHES. THE OLD RECORD WAS 18.51 INCHES SET IN
2005-06. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO
     60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
     SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
     TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
     FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT
     10 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL U.S.
     WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ADMIRALTY INLET-NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN
     JUAN ISLANDS-PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KOTX 061100
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
300 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be breezy with rain and snow showers over the
mountains of the Idaho Panhandle and over the Cascades. Strong
high pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest Sunday
bringing dry weather and light winds. Mild high pressure is
expected for the first half of the week. The chance for light rain
will return Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today: A narrow band of precipitation (along a quick moving
frontal system) will impact the Idaho Panhandle early this
morning. As of 2 AM, moderate snow was falling over the mountains
of Shoshone county above 3500 feet. DOT cameras at Lookout Pass
showed accumulations on Interstate 90 at 4700 feet. The most
significant snow at Lookout Pass will occur between now and
sunrise with 2 to 4 inches expected before snow decreases to snow
showers by mid morning. Post frontal snow showers will also occur
over the northern Cascades early this morning. Westerlies of 45 to
55kts at 700mb will push some of these convective bands as far
east as Plain, Mazama, Twisp, and upper portions of Lake Chelan.
However, accumulations this morning should be an inch or less
given the mild temps and transient nature of these showers. Even
web cameras at Stevens Pass suggest the snow is having a tough
time accumulating so the Winter Weather Advisory for the East
Slopes of the Northern Cascades will be cancelled.

Breezy southwest winds will make it feel chilly today despite
above average temperatures. A few wind sensors gusted into the
40-45mph range with the passage of the cold front early this
morning, but the gustiness has abated a bit over the Palouse, West
Plains, and Upper Columbia Basin. Our surface pressure gradients
will relax through the day today, but we may see a resurgence of
gusts to 35 mph around mid morning following sunrise. By early
evening, winds region-wide should be 5 mph or less as surface high
pressure quickly becomes established under a building upper ridge.

Tonight and Sunday: Our upper ridge will have a good deal of mid
and upper level moisture associated with it tonight into Sunday.
Looking at model soundings from the GFS and NAM, it is tough to
tell how thick clouds will be tonight into Sunday. The sounding
carry a good deal of moisture, but don`t saturate suggesting
transient bands of clouds. A bit of very light precipitation is
depicted by the NAM and GFS Sunday afternoon and evening over the
Cascades, Okanogan Highlands, and northeast Washington mountains.
A 20-30 percent chance of light rain and snow has been added to
the forecast with little mountain snow accumulation expected.
/GKoch

Sunday night through Friday: Models continue to show an upper
ridge building Monday and Tuesday. This will lead to strengthening
temperature inversions with areas of low clouds and patchy fog
forming in the valleys. Above the inversion mostly clear skies and
mild conditions will occur in the mountains as 850mb temperatures
rise into the 5-10C range. The palouse, Lewiston area, possibly
extending west towards Ritzville will benefit from easterly
downslope boundary layer winds which keeps these areas out of the
low clouds with very mild temps in the lower to mid 50s. A few
record highs are possible. The ridge begins to weaken on Wednesday
however mild temperatures will continue. Thursday and Friday an
upper trough begins to approach the Washington and Oregon coast.
Models disagree with the details of when the next round of
potential precipitation arrives so did not make many changes.
Prevailing southwest flow however should result in a continuation
of mild temperatures and high snow levels when precip does arrive.
JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A cold front is east of KEAT/KMWH at 06Z and will pass
through the eastern TAF sites by 08Z. Ahead and along this front
expect mainly rain showers with possible MVFR ceilings. Ahead of
the front especially over the eastern TAF sites LLWS is expected
after sunset decouples the boundary layer until FROPA. Breezy and
gusty conditions will occur with the FROPA with precipitation
quickly tapering off...except for the Idaho Panhandle and possibly
the KCOE TAF site where upslope post- frontal showers will
continue into the morning hours. Generally decreasing winds and
VFR conditions will prevail during the day Saturday. Once winds
become light after 00Z Sunday...the threat of low stratus and fog
will return. /EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        40  28  40  30  45  31 /  10   0  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  40  26  39  31  46  32 /  20   0  10  10   0   0
Pullman        42  30  44  34  50  35 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Lewiston       50  32  50  37  52  36 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Colville       39  27  36  30  41  31 /  10   0  10  10   0   0
Sandpoint      39  27  36  30  41  32 /  30  10  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        36  26  37  31  45  32 /  60  10  10  10   0   0
Moses Lake     46  29  43  29  45  31 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee      42  29  38  30  41  31 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           40  26  34  29  37  29 /   0   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 061100
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
300 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be breezy with rain and snow showers over the
mountains of the Idaho Panhandle and over the Cascades. Strong
high pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest Sunday
bringing dry weather and light winds. Mild high pressure is
expected for the first half of the week. The chance for light rain
will return Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today: A narrow band of precipitation (along a quick moving
frontal system) will impact the Idaho Panhandle early this
morning. As of 2 AM, moderate snow was falling over the mountains
of Shoshone county above 3500 feet. DOT cameras at Lookout Pass
showed accumulations on Interstate 90 at 4700 feet. The most
significant snow at Lookout Pass will occur between now and
sunrise with 2 to 4 inches expected before snow decreases to snow
showers by mid morning. Post frontal snow showers will also occur
over the northern Cascades early this morning. Westerlies of 45 to
55kts at 700mb will push some of these convective bands as far
east as Plain, Mazama, Twisp, and upper portions of Lake Chelan.
However, accumulations this morning should be an inch or less
given the mild temps and transient nature of these showers. Even
web cameras at Stevens Pass suggest the snow is having a tough
time accumulating so the Winter Weather Advisory for the East
Slopes of the Northern Cascades will be cancelled.

Breezy southwest winds will make it feel chilly today despite
above average temperatures. A few wind sensors gusted into the
40-45mph range with the passage of the cold front early this
morning, but the gustiness has abated a bit over the Palouse, West
Plains, and Upper Columbia Basin. Our surface pressure gradients
will relax through the day today, but we may see a resurgence of
gusts to 35 mph around mid morning following sunrise. By early
evening, winds region-wide should be 5 mph or less as surface high
pressure quickly becomes established under a building upper ridge.

Tonight and Sunday: Our upper ridge will have a good deal of mid
and upper level moisture associated with it tonight into Sunday.
Looking at model soundings from the GFS and NAM, it is tough to
tell how thick clouds will be tonight into Sunday. The sounding
carry a good deal of moisture, but don`t saturate suggesting
transient bands of clouds. A bit of very light precipitation is
depicted by the NAM and GFS Sunday afternoon and evening over the
Cascades, Okanogan Highlands, and northeast Washington mountains.
A 20-30 percent chance of light rain and snow has been added to
the forecast with little mountain snow accumulation expected.
/GKoch

Sunday night through Friday: Models continue to show an upper
ridge building Monday and Tuesday. This will lead to strengthening
temperature inversions with areas of low clouds and patchy fog
forming in the valleys. Above the inversion mostly clear skies and
mild conditions will occur in the mountains as 850mb temperatures
rise into the 5-10C range. The palouse, Lewiston area, possibly
extending west towards Ritzville will benefit from easterly
downslope boundary layer winds which keeps these areas out of the
low clouds with very mild temps in the lower to mid 50s. A few
record highs are possible. The ridge begins to weaken on Wednesday
however mild temperatures will continue. Thursday and Friday an
upper trough begins to approach the Washington and Oregon coast.
Models disagree with the details of when the next round of
potential precipitation arrives so did not make many changes.
Prevailing southwest flow however should result in a continuation
of mild temperatures and high snow levels when precip does arrive.
JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A cold front is east of KEAT/KMWH at 06Z and will pass
through the eastern TAF sites by 08Z. Ahead and along this front
expect mainly rain showers with possible MVFR ceilings. Ahead of
the front especially over the eastern TAF sites LLWS is expected
after sunset decouples the boundary layer until FROPA. Breezy and
gusty conditions will occur with the FROPA with precipitation
quickly tapering off...except for the Idaho Panhandle and possibly
the KCOE TAF site where upslope post- frontal showers will
continue into the morning hours. Generally decreasing winds and
VFR conditions will prevail during the day Saturday. Once winds
become light after 00Z Sunday...the threat of low stratus and fog
will return. /EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        40  28  40  30  45  31 /  10   0  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  40  26  39  31  46  32 /  20   0  10  10   0   0
Pullman        42  30  44  34  50  35 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Lewiston       50  32  50  37  52  36 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Colville       39  27  36  30  41  31 /  10   0  10  10   0   0
Sandpoint      39  27  36  30  41  32 /  30  10  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        36  26  37  31  45  32 /  60  10  10  10   0   0
Moses Lake     46  29  43  29  45  31 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee      42  29  38  30  41  31 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           40  26  34  29  37  29 /   0   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 061100
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
300 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be breezy with rain and snow showers over the
mountains of the Idaho Panhandle and over the Cascades. Strong
high pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest Sunday
bringing dry weather and light winds. Mild high pressure is
expected for the first half of the week. The chance for light rain
will return Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today: A narrow band of precipitation (along a quick moving
frontal system) will impact the Idaho Panhandle early this
morning. As of 2 AM, moderate snow was falling over the mountains
of Shoshone county above 3500 feet. DOT cameras at Lookout Pass
showed accumulations on Interstate 90 at 4700 feet. The most
significant snow at Lookout Pass will occur between now and
sunrise with 2 to 4 inches expected before snow decreases to snow
showers by mid morning. Post frontal snow showers will also occur
over the northern Cascades early this morning. Westerlies of 45 to
55kts at 700mb will push some of these convective bands as far
east as Plain, Mazama, Twisp, and upper portions of Lake Chelan.
However, accumulations this morning should be an inch or less
given the mild temps and transient nature of these showers. Even
web cameras at Stevens Pass suggest the snow is having a tough
time accumulating so the Winter Weather Advisory for the East
Slopes of the Northern Cascades will be cancelled.

Breezy southwest winds will make it feel chilly today despite
above average temperatures. A few wind sensors gusted into the
40-45mph range with the passage of the cold front early this
morning, but the gustiness has abated a bit over the Palouse, West
Plains, and Upper Columbia Basin. Our surface pressure gradients
will relax through the day today, but we may see a resurgence of
gusts to 35 mph around mid morning following sunrise. By early
evening, winds region-wide should be 5 mph or less as surface high
pressure quickly becomes established under a building upper ridge.

Tonight and Sunday: Our upper ridge will have a good deal of mid
and upper level moisture associated with it tonight into Sunday.
Looking at model soundings from the GFS and NAM, it is tough to
tell how thick clouds will be tonight into Sunday. The sounding
carry a good deal of moisture, but don`t saturate suggesting
transient bands of clouds. A bit of very light precipitation is
depicted by the NAM and GFS Sunday afternoon and evening over the
Cascades, Okanogan Highlands, and northeast Washington mountains.
A 20-30 percent chance of light rain and snow has been added to
the forecast with little mountain snow accumulation expected.
/GKoch

Sunday night through Friday: Models continue to show an upper
ridge building Monday and Tuesday. This will lead to strengthening
temperature inversions with areas of low clouds and patchy fog
forming in the valleys. Above the inversion mostly clear skies and
mild conditions will occur in the mountains as 850mb temperatures
rise into the 5-10C range. The palouse, Lewiston area, possibly
extending west towards Ritzville will benefit from easterly
downslope boundary layer winds which keeps these areas out of the
low clouds with very mild temps in the lower to mid 50s. A few
record highs are possible. The ridge begins to weaken on Wednesday
however mild temperatures will continue. Thursday and Friday an
upper trough begins to approach the Washington and Oregon coast.
Models disagree with the details of when the next round of
potential precipitation arrives so did not make many changes.
Prevailing southwest flow however should result in a continuation
of mild temperatures and high snow levels when precip does arrive.
JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A cold front is east of KEAT/KMWH at 06Z and will pass
through the eastern TAF sites by 08Z. Ahead and along this front
expect mainly rain showers with possible MVFR ceilings. Ahead of
the front especially over the eastern TAF sites LLWS is expected
after sunset decouples the boundary layer until FROPA. Breezy and
gusty conditions will occur with the FROPA with precipitation
quickly tapering off...except for the Idaho Panhandle and possibly
the KCOE TAF site where upslope post- frontal showers will
continue into the morning hours. Generally decreasing winds and
VFR conditions will prevail during the day Saturday. Once winds
become light after 00Z Sunday...the threat of low stratus and fog
will return. /EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        40  28  40  30  45  31 /  10   0  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  40  26  39  31  46  32 /  20   0  10  10   0   0
Pullman        42  30  44  34  50  35 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Lewiston       50  32  50  37  52  36 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Colville       39  27  36  30  41  31 /  10   0  10  10   0   0
Sandpoint      39  27  36  30  41  32 /  30  10  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        36  26  37  31  45  32 /  60  10  10  10   0   0
Moses Lake     46  29  43  29  45  31 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee      42  29  38  30  41  31 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           40  26  34  29  37  29 /   0   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 061042
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
242 AM PST SAT FEB  6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING TODAY. THEN DRY FOR NEXT 3 TO 4
DAYS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WILL HAVE INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW LATER SUN AND MON...WHICH WILL WARM THE AIR MASS FOR
MILD DAYS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPPER TROUGH PUSHING OVER THE REGION THIS AM... WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL END LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
FARTHER EAST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. THE BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS N OF A TILLAMOOK TO MT HOOD LINE.
OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION...WITH SOME LARGE
AREAS OF OPEN SKIES. IN THESE OPEN SKY AREAS...WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS FORM...MAINLY FROM SALEM SOUTHWARD. MOST AREAS WILL
SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY.

AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR.
HOWEVER...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND STILL DAMP GROUND...SHOULD SEE
WIDESPREAD FOG/LOW CLOUDS LATER THIS EVENING AND PERSIST WELL INTO
SUN AM. OFFSHORE FLOW NOT ALL THAT STRONG UNTIL LATER SUN AFTERNOON.
SO...LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OFF QUICKLY ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR
COLUMBIA RIVER...BUT ELSEWHERE STRATUS WILL BE MUCH MORE STUBBORN IN
CLEARING. AS RESULT...HAVE LOWERED TEMPS TO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S IN
THOSE AREAS SUCH AS TO SOUTH OF SALEM AND COWLITZ VALLEY WHERE CLOUDS
WILL PERSIST LONGER ON SUN.

EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE TO INCREASE SUN NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT
THROUGH THE GORGE GETS UP TO AT LEAST 7 MB...HOWEVER THIS STILL LOOKS
LIKE A GAP FLOW EVENT. THIS GRADIENT SUPPORTS GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH
AT CORBETT AND ROOSTER ROCK...AND MUCH HIGHER AT CROWN
POINT...PERHAPS 60 TO 70 MPH. LOOK FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO BANK UP
AGAINST PARKDALE/HOOD RIVER VALLEY STARTING LATER SUN NIGHT. EXPECT
FOG/LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP IN VALLEYS AWAY FROM GORGE.

THE WARMING THAT BEGINS IN THE COAST RANGE AND FOOTHILLS ON SUNDAY
DUE TO THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND THE PEAK
OF THE INVERSION ON MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOWER TO MID 60S
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MID LEVEL SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND IN THE COAST
MTNS. THE LOW SUN ANGLE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY AND THE EAST WINDS THROUGH
THE GORGE WILL WORK TO MAINTAIN THE VALLEY INVERSIONS AND COOLER
TEMPS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS
OVER THE PAC NW. EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. THE FOG WILL
LIKELY BURN OFF LATE IN THE MORNING...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
IT PERSISTS INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE EAST WINDS NEAR THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE WILL HELP LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTH VALLEY.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB NEAR 60 EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IF THE FOG
LINGERS WE COULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. OUR NEXT SHOT AT RAIN
ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE BRINGS A STRETCHING FRONT
ACROSS THE PAC NW. THIS WILL HELP OPEN THE DOOR FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN...WITH WET WEATHER LIKELY CONTINUING LATE NEXT WEEK. /64
&&

.AVIATION...A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING THIS MORNING BEHIND LAST
NIGHTS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS CHANCE FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. WLY 850 MB FLOW OF 20-30
KT WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH FREQUENT OBSCUREMENT THROUGH THIS MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A PASSING SHOWER THIS AM...
THEN CLOUD COVER SCATTERS CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON. PYLE
&&

.MARINE...WESTERLY POST-COLD FRONTAL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
THIS MORNING. HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR
THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. WILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT FOR THE
NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING. THEN WINDS TO REMAIN
BELOW 20 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING
INCREASING WINDS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS SUNDAY AND
WILL LAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER WARM FRONT IS
MODELED TO BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN TUE NIGHT INTO
WED.

SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 10 FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE
STILL SHOWS SEAS BUILDING JUST ABOVE 10 FT LATE SUN NIGHT OR
MON...THEN FALLING BACK BELOW 10 FT MON NIGHT. A LONGER PERIOD
WESTERLY SWELL IS MODELED TO ARRIVE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. PYLE
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

WA...NONE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM THIS AM FOR THE
 NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...OR FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO
 CASCADE HEAD.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM THIS
 EVENING ON ALL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER CONDITIONS
 UNTIL 7 PM TODAY.
&&



$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 061042
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
242 AM PST SAT FEB  6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING TODAY. THEN DRY FOR NEXT 3 TO 4
DAYS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WILL HAVE INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW LATER SUN AND MON...WHICH WILL WARM THE AIR MASS FOR
MILD DAYS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPPER TROUGH PUSHING OVER THE REGION THIS AM... WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL END LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
FARTHER EAST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. THE BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS N OF A TILLAMOOK TO MT HOOD LINE.
OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION...WITH SOME LARGE
AREAS OF OPEN SKIES. IN THESE OPEN SKY AREAS...WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS FORM...MAINLY FROM SALEM SOUTHWARD. MOST AREAS WILL
SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY.

AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR.
HOWEVER...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND STILL DAMP GROUND...SHOULD SEE
WIDESPREAD FOG/LOW CLOUDS LATER THIS EVENING AND PERSIST WELL INTO
SUN AM. OFFSHORE FLOW NOT ALL THAT STRONG UNTIL LATER SUN AFTERNOON.
SO...LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OFF QUICKLY ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR
COLUMBIA RIVER...BUT ELSEWHERE STRATUS WILL BE MUCH MORE STUBBORN IN
CLEARING. AS RESULT...HAVE LOWERED TEMPS TO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S IN
THOSE AREAS SUCH AS TO SOUTH OF SALEM AND COWLITZ VALLEY WHERE CLOUDS
WILL PERSIST LONGER ON SUN.

EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE TO INCREASE SUN NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT
THROUGH THE GORGE GETS UP TO AT LEAST 7 MB...HOWEVER THIS STILL LOOKS
LIKE A GAP FLOW EVENT. THIS GRADIENT SUPPORTS GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH
AT CORBETT AND ROOSTER ROCK...AND MUCH HIGHER AT CROWN
POINT...PERHAPS 60 TO 70 MPH. LOOK FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO BANK UP
AGAINST PARKDALE/HOOD RIVER VALLEY STARTING LATER SUN NIGHT. EXPECT
FOG/LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP IN VALLEYS AWAY FROM GORGE.

THE WARMING THAT BEGINS IN THE COAST RANGE AND FOOTHILLS ON SUNDAY
DUE TO THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND THE PEAK
OF THE INVERSION ON MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOWER TO MID 60S
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MID LEVEL SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND IN THE COAST
MTNS. THE LOW SUN ANGLE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY AND THE EAST WINDS THROUGH
THE GORGE WILL WORK TO MAINTAIN THE VALLEY INVERSIONS AND COOLER
TEMPS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS
OVER THE PAC NW. EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. THE FOG WILL
LIKELY BURN OFF LATE IN THE MORNING...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
IT PERSISTS INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE EAST WINDS NEAR THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE WILL HELP LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTH VALLEY.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB NEAR 60 EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IF THE FOG
LINGERS WE COULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. OUR NEXT SHOT AT RAIN
ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE BRINGS A STRETCHING FRONT
ACROSS THE PAC NW. THIS WILL HELP OPEN THE DOOR FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN...WITH WET WEATHER LIKELY CONTINUING LATE NEXT WEEK. /64
&&

.AVIATION...A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING THIS MORNING BEHIND LAST
NIGHTS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS CHANCE FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. WLY 850 MB FLOW OF 20-30
KT WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH FREQUENT OBSCUREMENT THROUGH THIS MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A PASSING SHOWER THIS AM...
THEN CLOUD COVER SCATTERS CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON. PYLE
&&

.MARINE...WESTERLY POST-COLD FRONTAL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
THIS MORNING. HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR
THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. WILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT FOR THE
NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING. THEN WINDS TO REMAIN
BELOW 20 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING
INCREASING WINDS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS SUNDAY AND
WILL LAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER WARM FRONT IS
MODELED TO BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN TUE NIGHT INTO
WED.

SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 10 FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE
STILL SHOWS SEAS BUILDING JUST ABOVE 10 FT LATE SUN NIGHT OR
MON...THEN FALLING BACK BELOW 10 FT MON NIGHT. A LONGER PERIOD
WESTERLY SWELL IS MODELED TO ARRIVE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. PYLE
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

WA...NONE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM THIS AM FOR THE
 NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...OR FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO
 CASCADE HEAD.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM THIS
 EVENING ON ALL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER CONDITIONS
 UNTIL 7 PM TODAY.
&&



$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 060602
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1002 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Another frontal system will arrive tonight bringing rain to the
lowlands and snow to the mountains. It will become windy after
midnight tonight with gusts up to 45 mph over southeast
Washington, the Palouse, and West Plains. Dry weather and light
winds will develop on Sunday and continue through mid week as a
strong high pressure system sets up over the region. More active
weather is expected by the end of the work week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
The cold front is moving across eastern Washington as of 10 pm.
This feature is much weaker than forecast since it dropped much of
its moisture as it crested the Cascades. Stronger downslope flow
has limited the amount of precipitation falling other than the
slopover near the crest. The areal coverage of the Winter Weather
Advisory has been trimmed to exclude some locations away from the
crest. Have opted to keep the advisory going since we are
expecting convergence bands to develop tonight that could bring
periods of locally heavy snow. High resolution models are favoring
the Highway 2-Stevens Pass area. There are scattered radar returns
along the crest but so far the most consolidated bands remain
south of the forecast area closer to I-90/Stampede Pass.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A cold front is east of KEAT/KMWH at 06Z and will pass
through the eastern TAF sites by 08Z. Ahead and along this front
expect mainly rain showers with possible MVFR ceilings. Ahead of
the front especially over the eastern TAF sites LLWS is expected
after sunset decouples the boundary layer until FROPA. Breezy and
gusty conditions will occur with the FROPA with precipitation
quickly tapering off...except for the Idaho Panhandle and possibly
the KCOE TAF site where upslope post- frontal showers will
continue into the morning hours. Generally decreasing winds and
VFR conditions will prevail during the day Saturday. Once winds
become light after 00Z Sunday...the threat of low stratus and fog
will return. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        33  40  28  40  30  43 /  70  10   0  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  32  40  26  39  30  44 / 100  20  10  10   0   0
Pullman        36  42  30  44  33  48 /  60  10  10  10   0   0
Lewiston       40  50  32  50  35  54 /  20  10  10  10   0   0
Colville       30  39  27  36  29  41 /  60  10   0  10   0   0
Sandpoint      29  39  27  36  29  41 / 100  30  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        32  36  26  37  30  43 / 100  60  10  10   0   0
Moses Lake     32  46  29  43  31  45 /  10   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee      29  42  29  38  30  40 /  10  10   0  10   0   0
Omak           30  40  26  34  29  38 /  10   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 060602
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1002 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Another frontal system will arrive tonight bringing rain to the
lowlands and snow to the mountains. It will become windy after
midnight tonight with gusts up to 45 mph over southeast
Washington, the Palouse, and West Plains. Dry weather and light
winds will develop on Sunday and continue through mid week as a
strong high pressure system sets up over the region. More active
weather is expected by the end of the work week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
The cold front is moving across eastern Washington as of 10 pm.
This feature is much weaker than forecast since it dropped much of
its moisture as it crested the Cascades. Stronger downslope flow
has limited the amount of precipitation falling other than the
slopover near the crest. The areal coverage of the Winter Weather
Advisory has been trimmed to exclude some locations away from the
crest. Have opted to keep the advisory going since we are
expecting convergence bands to develop tonight that could bring
periods of locally heavy snow. High resolution models are favoring
the Highway 2-Stevens Pass area. There are scattered radar returns
along the crest but so far the most consolidated bands remain
south of the forecast area closer to I-90/Stampede Pass.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A cold front is east of KEAT/KMWH at 06Z and will pass
through the eastern TAF sites by 08Z. Ahead and along this front
expect mainly rain showers with possible MVFR ceilings. Ahead of
the front especially over the eastern TAF sites LLWS is expected
after sunset decouples the boundary layer until FROPA. Breezy and
gusty conditions will occur with the FROPA with precipitation
quickly tapering off...except for the Idaho Panhandle and possibly
the KCOE TAF site where upslope post- frontal showers will
continue into the morning hours. Generally decreasing winds and
VFR conditions will prevail during the day Saturday. Once winds
become light after 00Z Sunday...the threat of low stratus and fog
will return. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        33  40  28  40  30  43 /  70  10   0  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  32  40  26  39  30  44 / 100  20  10  10   0   0
Pullman        36  42  30  44  33  48 /  60  10  10  10   0   0
Lewiston       40  50  32  50  35  54 /  20  10  10  10   0   0
Colville       30  39  27  36  29  41 /  60  10   0  10   0   0
Sandpoint      29  39  27  36  29  41 / 100  30  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        32  36  26  37  30  43 / 100  60  10  10   0   0
Moses Lake     32  46  29  43  31  45 /  10   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee      29  42  29  38  30  40 /  10  10   0  10   0   0
Omak           30  40  26  34  29  38 /  10   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 060602
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1002 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Another frontal system will arrive tonight bringing rain to the
lowlands and snow to the mountains. It will become windy after
midnight tonight with gusts up to 45 mph over southeast
Washington, the Palouse, and West Plains. Dry weather and light
winds will develop on Sunday and continue through mid week as a
strong high pressure system sets up over the region. More active
weather is expected by the end of the work week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
The cold front is moving across eastern Washington as of 10 pm.
This feature is much weaker than forecast since it dropped much of
its moisture as it crested the Cascades. Stronger downslope flow
has limited the amount of precipitation falling other than the
slopover near the crest. The areal coverage of the Winter Weather
Advisory has been trimmed to exclude some locations away from the
crest. Have opted to keep the advisory going since we are
expecting convergence bands to develop tonight that could bring
periods of locally heavy snow. High resolution models are favoring
the Highway 2-Stevens Pass area. There are scattered radar returns
along the crest but so far the most consolidated bands remain
south of the forecast area closer to I-90/Stampede Pass.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A cold front is east of KEAT/KMWH at 06Z and will pass
through the eastern TAF sites by 08Z. Ahead and along this front
expect mainly rain showers with possible MVFR ceilings. Ahead of
the front especially over the eastern TAF sites LLWS is expected
after sunset decouples the boundary layer until FROPA. Breezy and
gusty conditions will occur with the FROPA with precipitation
quickly tapering off...except for the Idaho Panhandle and possibly
the KCOE TAF site where upslope post- frontal showers will
continue into the morning hours. Generally decreasing winds and
VFR conditions will prevail during the day Saturday. Once winds
become light after 00Z Sunday...the threat of low stratus and fog
will return. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        33  40  28  40  30  43 /  70  10   0  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  32  40  26  39  30  44 / 100  20  10  10   0   0
Pullman        36  42  30  44  33  48 /  60  10  10  10   0   0
Lewiston       40  50  32  50  35  54 /  20  10  10  10   0   0
Colville       30  39  27  36  29  41 /  60  10   0  10   0   0
Sandpoint      29  39  27  36  29  41 / 100  30  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        32  36  26  37  30  43 / 100  60  10  10   0   0
Moses Lake     32  46  29  43  31  45 /  10   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee      29  42  29  38  30  40 /  10  10   0  10   0   0
Omak           30  40  26  34  29  38 /  10   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 060454
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
845 PM PST FRI FEB  5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
WHICH COULD LAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WEATHER PATTERN
WILL BRING BRISK EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE AND POSSIBLY FOG FOR
AREAS AWAY FROM THE GORGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT MOVED TO THE
COAST BETWEEN 4 AND 5 PM AND INLAND AROUND 6 PM. IT IS NOW IN THE
MOVING INTO THE CASCADES. THERE WAS BRIEF HIGH WINDS ALONG THE BEACHES
AND HEADLANDS IN THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST AS THE
FRONT MADE LANDFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 0.3 TO 0.7 INCH IN THE COAST AND COAST RANGE AND
0.1 TO 0.2 INCH IN THE VALLEY IN THE PAST 6 HOURS ENDING AT 8 PM. RADAR
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. SATELLITE SHOWS LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF COLD TOP CUMULUS MOVING ASHORE SO EXPECT SHOWERS ACTIVITY TO BE
ON THE DECREASE.  WILL LOWER POPS INTO THE CHANCE/SCATTERED CATEGORY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER THE CASCADES WILL HOLD ON TO THE
STEADIER RAIN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE EASING.

SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL BELOW THE PASSES AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH BUT WITH THE PCPN EASING AMOUNTS LOOK BELOW SNOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT A FEW SPOTS FROM MOUNT HOOD NORTH COULD SEE 2 TO 4
INCHES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS AT SKI AREAS.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE
LATTER PART OF TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY FOR DECREASING
SHOWERS AND IMPROVING WEATHER.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD AND MOVES ONSHORE...CLOUD COVER SHOULD
TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP LATER SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PLENTY OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS FORMING
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO WET GROUND AND STABILIZING
CONDITIONS. THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY TAKE A WHILE TO BREAK UP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE GORGE...WHICH SHOULD AID THE CLEARING SUNDAY IN AREAS
AROUND THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND ALONG THE COAST. CLOUDS MAY STILL
LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND THE
I-5 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...AS THIS LOOKS LIKE A GAP FLOW
EVENT WITH LITTLE OR NO SUPPORT AT 850 MB OR 700 MB. THE PORTLAND AND
VANCOUVER AREAS WILL BE THE MAIN BENEFICIARIES OF THESE EAST WINDS.

LOOK FOR THE EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE GORGE GETS UP TO AT LEAST 7 MB...HOWEVER
THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE A GAP FLOW EVENT. THIS GRADIENT SUPPORTS GUSTS
TO AROUND 50 MPH AT CORBETT AND ROOSTER ROCK...AND MUCH HIGHER AT
CROWN POINT...PERHAPS 60 TO 70 MPH. LOOK FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO
BANK UP AGAINST PARKDALE HOOD RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. EXPECT
MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS AWAY FROM THE
GORGE...THOUGH THE STRENGTHENING EAST WINDS MAY PREVENT MUCH FOG IN
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER METRO AREAS.

THE WARMING THAT BEGINS IN THE COAST RANGE AND FOOTHILLS ON SUNDAY
DUE TO THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND THE PEAK
OF THE INVERSION ON MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT 60S ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE MID LEVEL SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND IN THE COAST RANGE. THE LOW
SUN ANGLE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY AND THE EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE
WILL WORK TO MAINTAIN THE VALLEY INVERSIONS AND COOLER TEMPS IN THE
VALLEYS. TOLLESON /MH
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS
OVER THE PAC NW. EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. THE FOG WILL
LIKELY BURN OFF LATE IN THE MORNING...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
IT PERSISTS INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE EAST WINDS NEAR THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE WILL HELP LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTH VALLEY.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB NEAR 60 EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IF THE FOG
LINGERS WE COULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. OUR NEXT SHOT AT RAIN
ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE BRINGS A STRETCHING FRONT
ACROSS THE PAC NW. THIS WILL HELP OPEN THE DOOR FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN...WITH WET WEATHER LIKELY CONTINUING LATE NEXT WEEK. /64
&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT ON A LINE FROM CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND NEAR
THE NORTH TO FAR NWRN CALIFORNIA AT 04Z. PRIMARILY VFR OVER THE
INLAND LOWLANDS AND A MIX OF CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. WLY 850
MB FLOW OF 20-30 KT WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH FREQUENT OBSCUREMENT THROUGH SAT MORNING.
EXPECTING PRIMARILY VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON...EXCEPT
FOR AREAS OF MVFR ALONG THE COAST THROUGH 12Z SAT AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOWER CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR AT THE TERMINAL AND ALONG APPROACHES AT
04Z. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z SUN. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 20
TO 30 PERCENT THREAT OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH SAT MORNING. WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SINCE LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE
DROPPED THE GALE WARNING AND REPLACED IT WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR WIND AND SEAS. STRONGEST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE NRN WATERS TONIGHT. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WIND CONDITIONS TO END OVER THE SRN WATERS AROUND
11Z...BUT MAY BE A LITTLE SOONER THAN THAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS SAT NIGHT WHICH COULD
RESULT IN 20 TO 25 KT WIND OVER THE OUTER NRN WATERS. OFFSHORE
FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS SUNDAY AND WILL LAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 10 FEET THROUGH SAT EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE
STILL SHOWS SEAS BUILDING JUST ABOVE 10 FT LATE SUN NIGHT OR
MON...THEN FALLING BACK BELOW 10 FT MON NIGHT. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 7 PM
     PST SATURDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 060427
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
827 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND TONIGHT WITH DECREASING
SHOWERS. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE CASCADES EARLY SATURDAY.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CLIP THE COAST AND NORTH CASCADES ON
SUNDAY. EXPECT DRY AND MILD WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...SHOWERS WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE CASCADES IN THE MORNING AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS
TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON ON SUNDAY FOR A MAINLY DRY DAY. A WARM FRONT CLIPPING
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA WILL BRING A LITTLE RAIN TO THE
COAST AND FAR NORTH. THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY FOR A DRY DAY. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
BY MONDAY AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BECOME ABUNDANT. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WESTERN WA DRY AND MILD THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT FARTHER INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY AS A TROUGH FORMS OVER THE NE PAC. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING
A FRONT INTO WESTERN WA FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN ON THURSDAY. A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE PAC NW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK FOR COOLER WEATHER AND A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
33

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FROM CURRENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO MORE WESTERLY BY VERY LATE TONIGHT...FINALLY
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS FRONTAL SYSTEM
WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 8 HOURS. WITH THE MAIN FRONT ALREADY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA...PRECIP WILL COME MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SHOWERS...MOST OF WHICH ARE CURRENTLY FOCUSED ON THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
EASTWARD AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

CIGS OVER THE AREA ARE SURPRISINGLY VFR TO MVFR...ALTHOUGH AS
SHOWERS SPREAD EASTWARD...MAY SEE CIGS DIP INTO MVFR TO IFR RANGE.
ONCE TROF PASSES...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
START TO DRY THINGS OUT...ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO START LIFTING TO
WIDESPREAD VFR AROUND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. SMR

KSEA...BRIEF PERIOD OF REST AS FRONTAL PRECIP IS EAST OF TERMINAL
WHILE SHOWERS STILL OFF A BIT TO THE WEST. MAY START TO SEE SHOWERS
MAKE THEIR WAY INTO KSEA AREA BETWEEN 05-07Z...MORE LIKELY TOWARD
THE END OF THAT WINDOW IF CURRENT RADAR TIMING HOLDS. MAY SEE SOME
SLIGHT CIG IMPROVEMENT NOW THAT FRONT HAS PASSED THOUGH...ALTHOUGH
WILL BE TEMPORARY AS EXPECTING CIGS TO DROP AGAIN WITH ANY INCOMING
SHOWERS...ULTIMATELY YIELDING A NET CHANGE OF ZERO. WINDS REMAINING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND GUSTY...ALTHOUGH SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
OVERNIGHT.  SMR

&&

.MARINE...A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. GALE
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...THUS THE GALE WARNING
THERE HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 1 AM PST TONIGHT. GALES WILL LIKELY TAPER
OFF PRIOR TO THAT. GALES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STRAIT...WITH EASTERN STRAIT FLIRTING WITH GALE SPEEDS...CENTRAL
DEFINITELY BLOWING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR REMAINING
WATERS...AND THAT SEEMS MOSTLY OKAY.

AN AREA OF 18-23 FT SWLY SEAS WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 14 SECONDS
IS OCCURRING WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE
HIGH SEAS ARE MAINLY BEING DIRECTED TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND AND HAVE
A SHORT PERIOD...AND ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE AFTER 9 PM.
HENCE...SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON THE
DAMAGED BEACHES IN OCEAN SHORES AND WESTPORT AND HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES ARE NOT WARRANTED ELSEWHERE.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF
THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW
THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES SUNDAY ONWARD NEAR GAPS IN THE
TERRAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY IN THE OUTER PORTIONS
OF THE COASTAL WATERS. SMR/ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON THE EXCEPTIONALLY FLOOD-
PRONE SKOKOMISH RIVER LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE RIVER FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

ABOUT AN INCH OF RAIN FELL OVER THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE HEAVY RAINS HAVE
ENDED AS OF 8 PM. AN INCH OF RAIN WOULD NOT NORMALLY BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE FLOODING BUT THE SKOKOMISH IS ALREADY RUNNING HIGH AND THE
GROUND IS SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINS. THE RIVER IS CURRENTLY
RISING SHARPLY AND THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.

IN ADDITION...THE USGS LANDSLIDE HAZARDS DATA SUGGEST THAT THE
RAINFALL FROM THE FRONT TODAY COULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
LANDSLIDES. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO
ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CASCADES OF
     PIERCE AND LEWIS COUNTIES-CASCADES OF SNOHOMISH AND KING
     COUNTIES-CASCADES OF WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MASON COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO
     60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
     SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
     TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10
     TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
     SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF
     JUAN DE FUCA.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL U.S. WATERS
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF
     JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ADMIRALTY INLET-
     NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS-PUGET
     SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KOTX 052338
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
338 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Another frontal system will arrive tonight bringing rain to the
lowlands and snow to the mountains. It will become windy after
midnight tonight with gusts up to 45 mph over southeast
Washington, the Palouse, and West Plains. Dry weather and light
winds will develop on Sunday and continue through mid week as a
strong high pressure system sets up over the region. More active
weather is expected by the end of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
...WINDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

Tonight and Saturday: A dynamic shortwave trough of lower pressure
will race across the region tonight. Satellite imagery shows the
cold front just off the coast of WA at around 2:00 PM this
afternoon. The water vapor channel indicates good darkening
immediately behind the front. This is a good signal that once the
precip shuts off, we will see low clouds mixing out and stronger
winds aloft mixing down. Precip will mainly be confined right
along the cold front for most areas. This will result in a short
duration precip event of between 2-4 hours. The exceptions will be
the east slopes of the northern Cascades and the ID Panhandle.

The slop over precip across the Cascade crest has the potential
to extend a bit further into the east slopes more than usual as
high resolution models (i.e. HRRR) indicate a moderately strong
Puget Sound Convergent Zone (PSCZ) setting up. Snow fall amounts
in the east slopes of the northern Cascades will likely be fairly
light with the front this evening, but snowfall rates may be quite
heavy underneath the PSCZ through the overnight hours. The HRRR
model shows this convergent zone first extending over the Methow
Valley late in the evening through about 2:00 AM and then
concentrating further south between Plain and Lake Chelan late
tonight into Saturday morning. It is not uncommon to see snowfall
rates of 1-2 inches per hour underneath the PSCZ due to the
convective nature of the snowfall. Because of this, we have made a
minor adjustment to the Winter Weather Advisory to include Plain
and locations along Lake Chelan such as Lucerne.

Snowfall amounts are not expected to be as heavy across the ID
Panhandle, but some ongoing snow showers are expected to continue
through Saturday morning. Some showers may be on the heavier side
behind the cold front as lapse rates steepen a bit. The main
impact will be going over Lookout Pass where around 2-4 inches of
snow will be possible.

The other impact with this storm system will be for some windy
conditions. The GFS model indicates the strongest potential for
winds. It shows winds up at 850 mbs of up around 50 kts, but other
model guidance are closer to 40-45 kts. There will be decent cold
air advection with the passage of the cold front with a degree of
confidence that these stronger winds aloft will be able to mix
down to the surface despite a nighttime passage. Strongest wind
gusts are expected to take place across the Spokane Area, on the
Palouse, and in the Northeast Blue Mtns (including around Pomeroy
and over Alpowa Summit). Strongest gust will likely occur with
cold front passage late tonight into early Saturday morning in the
range of 40-45 mph. Winds will then be generally breezy for the
rest of the day on Saturday. Gust potential will be borderline
advisory criteria, but confidence is low and duration will likely
be fairly short if achieved. /SVH

Saturday night through Friday...Model agreement is good and
consistent for multiple runs now in depicting a strong upper level
ridge over the region from Sunday through Wednesday. Confidence
is high for a run of dry weather after lingering snow showers from
Saturday`s system die out over the Idaho Panhandle. The areal
extent of at least morning fog and low clouds...potentially
deteriorating air quality and temperatures will be the main
forecast problems during this strong ridge inversion scenario.

The region may be broken out into three distinct areas of varying
weather. Firstly...over the Palouse and points south as far west
as Ritzville or so a persistent easterly gradient will likely keep
fog and low clouds to a minimum and allow temperatures to elevate
int the solid 40s and even into the 50s by mid week.

The easterly gradient will serve to pool an increasingly moist and
stagnant boundary layer in the deep basin and Cascades
Valleys...banked against the mountains. It is here where the best
chance of significant fog and stratus and the lowest chance of
daytime sun will be found. Also the coolest temperatures and
weakest diurnal swings.

Over the northern Columbia basin and many of the valleys of
northeast Washington and north Idaho a regime of overnight and
morning fog and low clouds with at least partial sunshine in the
afternoons and evenings look plausible...with the protected
valleys north of the basin slowest to scrub each day.

On or about Thursday models are coming into loose agreement on
breaking down or at least substantially weakening the upper ridge
with both the GFS and EC depicting a short wave passage either
Wednesday night or Thursday...followed by a more active close to
the work week with follow on waves. At this time none of these
disturbances looks particularly strong or organized...but well
worth increasing precipitation chances for valley rain and
mountain snow for late in the week. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A strong cold front laying along the Pac coast at 00Z
will pass through KEAT around 06Z and through the eastern TAF
sites around 09Z. Ahead and along this front expect mainly rain
showers with possible MVFR ceilings...except a short period of
snow at KEAT then changing to rain. Ahead of the front especially
over the eastern TAF sites LLWS is expected after sunset decouples
the boundary layer until FROPA. Breezy and gusty conditions will
occur with the FROPA with precipitation quickly tapering
off...except for the Idaho Panhandle and possibly the KCOE TAF
site where upslope post-frontal showers will continue into the
morning hours. Generally decreasing winds and VFR conditions will
prevail during the day Saturday. /MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        33  40  28  40  30  43 /  70  10   0  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  32  40  26  39  30  44 / 100  20  10  10   0   0
Pullman        36  42  30  44  33  48 /  60  10  10  10   0   0
Lewiston       40  50  32  50  35  54 /  20  10  10  10   0   0
Colville       32  39  27  36  29  41 /  80  10   0  10   0   0
Sandpoint      33  39  27  36  29  41 / 100  30  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        32  36  26  37  30  43 / 100  60  10  10   0   0
Moses Lake     32  46  29  43  31  45 /  40   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee      31  42  29  38  30  40 /  40  10   0  10   0   0
Omak           30  40  26  34  29  38 /  60   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM PST
     Saturday for East Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 052338
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
338 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Another frontal system will arrive tonight bringing rain to the
lowlands and snow to the mountains. It will become windy after
midnight tonight with gusts up to 45 mph over southeast
Washington, the Palouse, and West Plains. Dry weather and light
winds will develop on Sunday and continue through mid week as a
strong high pressure system sets up over the region. More active
weather is expected by the end of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
...WINDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

Tonight and Saturday: A dynamic shortwave trough of lower pressure
will race across the region tonight. Satellite imagery shows the
cold front just off the coast of WA at around 2:00 PM this
afternoon. The water vapor channel indicates good darkening
immediately behind the front. This is a good signal that once the
precip shuts off, we will see low clouds mixing out and stronger
winds aloft mixing down. Precip will mainly be confined right
along the cold front for most areas. This will result in a short
duration precip event of between 2-4 hours. The exceptions will be
the east slopes of the northern Cascades and the ID Panhandle.

The slop over precip across the Cascade crest has the potential
to extend a bit further into the east slopes more than usual as
high resolution models (i.e. HRRR) indicate a moderately strong
Puget Sound Convergent Zone (PSCZ) setting up. Snow fall amounts
in the east slopes of the northern Cascades will likely be fairly
light with the front this evening, but snowfall rates may be quite
heavy underneath the PSCZ through the overnight hours. The HRRR
model shows this convergent zone first extending over the Methow
Valley late in the evening through about 2:00 AM and then
concentrating further south between Plain and Lake Chelan late
tonight into Saturday morning. It is not uncommon to see snowfall
rates of 1-2 inches per hour underneath the PSCZ due to the
convective nature of the snowfall. Because of this, we have made a
minor adjustment to the Winter Weather Advisory to include Plain
and locations along Lake Chelan such as Lucerne.

Snowfall amounts are not expected to be as heavy across the ID
Panhandle, but some ongoing snow showers are expected to continue
through Saturday morning. Some showers may be on the heavier side
behind the cold front as lapse rates steepen a bit. The main
impact will be going over Lookout Pass where around 2-4 inches of
snow will be possible.

The other impact with this storm system will be for some windy
conditions. The GFS model indicates the strongest potential for
winds. It shows winds up at 850 mbs of up around 50 kts, but other
model guidance are closer to 40-45 kts. There will be decent cold
air advection with the passage of the cold front with a degree of
confidence that these stronger winds aloft will be able to mix
down to the surface despite a nighttime passage. Strongest wind
gusts are expected to take place across the Spokane Area, on the
Palouse, and in the Northeast Blue Mtns (including around Pomeroy
and over Alpowa Summit). Strongest gust will likely occur with
cold front passage late tonight into early Saturday morning in the
range of 40-45 mph. Winds will then be generally breezy for the
rest of the day on Saturday. Gust potential will be borderline
advisory criteria, but confidence is low and duration will likely
be fairly short if achieved. /SVH

Saturday night through Friday...Model agreement is good and
consistent for multiple runs now in depicting a strong upper level
ridge over the region from Sunday through Wednesday. Confidence
is high for a run of dry weather after lingering snow showers from
Saturday`s system die out over the Idaho Panhandle. The areal
extent of at least morning fog and low clouds...potentially
deteriorating air quality and temperatures will be the main
forecast problems during this strong ridge inversion scenario.

The region may be broken out into three distinct areas of varying
weather. Firstly...over the Palouse and points south as far west
as Ritzville or so a persistent easterly gradient will likely keep
fog and low clouds to a minimum and allow temperatures to elevate
int the solid 40s and even into the 50s by mid week.

The easterly gradient will serve to pool an increasingly moist and
stagnant boundary layer in the deep basin and Cascades
Valleys...banked against the mountains. It is here where the best
chance of significant fog and stratus and the lowest chance of
daytime sun will be found. Also the coolest temperatures and
weakest diurnal swings.

Over the northern Columbia basin and many of the valleys of
northeast Washington and north Idaho a regime of overnight and
morning fog and low clouds with at least partial sunshine in the
afternoons and evenings look plausible...with the protected
valleys north of the basin slowest to scrub each day.

On or about Thursday models are coming into loose agreement on
breaking down or at least substantially weakening the upper ridge
with both the GFS and EC depicting a short wave passage either
Wednesday night or Thursday...followed by a more active close to
the work week with follow on waves. At this time none of these
disturbances looks particularly strong or organized...but well
worth increasing precipitation chances for valley rain and
mountain snow for late in the week. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A strong cold front laying along the Pac coast at 00Z
will pass through KEAT around 06Z and through the eastern TAF
sites around 09Z. Ahead and along this front expect mainly rain
showers with possible MVFR ceilings...except a short period of
snow at KEAT then changing to rain. Ahead of the front especially
over the eastern TAF sites LLWS is expected after sunset decouples
the boundary layer until FROPA. Breezy and gusty conditions will
occur with the FROPA with precipitation quickly tapering
off...except for the Idaho Panhandle and possibly the KCOE TAF
site where upslope post-frontal showers will continue into the
morning hours. Generally decreasing winds and VFR conditions will
prevail during the day Saturday. /MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        33  40  28  40  30  43 /  70  10   0  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  32  40  26  39  30  44 / 100  20  10  10   0   0
Pullman        36  42  30  44  33  48 /  60  10  10  10   0   0
Lewiston       40  50  32  50  35  54 /  20  10  10  10   0   0
Colville       32  39  27  36  29  41 /  80  10   0  10   0   0
Sandpoint      33  39  27  36  29  41 / 100  30  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        32  36  26  37  30  43 / 100  60  10  10   0   0
Moses Lake     32  46  29  43  31  45 /  40   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee      31  42  29  38  30  40 /  40  10   0  10   0   0
Omak           30  40  26  34  29  38 /  60   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM PST
     Saturday for East Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 052338
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
338 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Another frontal system will arrive tonight bringing rain to the
lowlands and snow to the mountains. It will become windy after
midnight tonight with gusts up to 45 mph over southeast
Washington, the Palouse, and West Plains. Dry weather and light
winds will develop on Sunday and continue through mid week as a
strong high pressure system sets up over the region. More active
weather is expected by the end of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
...WINDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

Tonight and Saturday: A dynamic shortwave trough of lower pressure
will race across the region tonight. Satellite imagery shows the
cold front just off the coast of WA at around 2:00 PM this
afternoon. The water vapor channel indicates good darkening
immediately behind the front. This is a good signal that once the
precip shuts off, we will see low clouds mixing out and stronger
winds aloft mixing down. Precip will mainly be confined right
along the cold front for most areas. This will result in a short
duration precip event of between 2-4 hours. The exceptions will be
the east slopes of the northern Cascades and the ID Panhandle.

The slop over precip across the Cascade crest has the potential
to extend a bit further into the east slopes more than usual as
high resolution models (i.e. HRRR) indicate a moderately strong
Puget Sound Convergent Zone (PSCZ) setting up. Snow fall amounts
in the east slopes of the northern Cascades will likely be fairly
light with the front this evening, but snowfall rates may be quite
heavy underneath the PSCZ through the overnight hours. The HRRR
model shows this convergent zone first extending over the Methow
Valley late in the evening through about 2:00 AM and then
concentrating further south between Plain and Lake Chelan late
tonight into Saturday morning. It is not uncommon to see snowfall
rates of 1-2 inches per hour underneath the PSCZ due to the
convective nature of the snowfall. Because of this, we have made a
minor adjustment to the Winter Weather Advisory to include Plain
and locations along Lake Chelan such as Lucerne.

Snowfall amounts are not expected to be as heavy across the ID
Panhandle, but some ongoing snow showers are expected to continue
through Saturday morning. Some showers may be on the heavier side
behind the cold front as lapse rates steepen a bit. The main
impact will be going over Lookout Pass where around 2-4 inches of
snow will be possible.

The other impact with this storm system will be for some windy
conditions. The GFS model indicates the strongest potential for
winds. It shows winds up at 850 mbs of up around 50 kts, but other
model guidance are closer to 40-45 kts. There will be decent cold
air advection with the passage of the cold front with a degree of
confidence that these stronger winds aloft will be able to mix
down to the surface despite a nighttime passage. Strongest wind
gusts are expected to take place across the Spokane Area, on the
Palouse, and in the Northeast Blue Mtns (including around Pomeroy
and over Alpowa Summit). Strongest gust will likely occur with
cold front passage late tonight into early Saturday morning in the
range of 40-45 mph. Winds will then be generally breezy for the
rest of the day on Saturday. Gust potential will be borderline
advisory criteria, but confidence is low and duration will likely
be fairly short if achieved. /SVH

Saturday night through Friday...Model agreement is good and
consistent for multiple runs now in depicting a strong upper level
ridge over the region from Sunday through Wednesday. Confidence
is high for a run of dry weather after lingering snow showers from
Saturday`s system die out over the Idaho Panhandle. The areal
extent of at least morning fog and low clouds...potentially
deteriorating air quality and temperatures will be the main
forecast problems during this strong ridge inversion scenario.

The region may be broken out into three distinct areas of varying
weather. Firstly...over the Palouse and points south as far west
as Ritzville or so a persistent easterly gradient will likely keep
fog and low clouds to a minimum and allow temperatures to elevate
int the solid 40s and even into the 50s by mid week.

The easterly gradient will serve to pool an increasingly moist and
stagnant boundary layer in the deep basin and Cascades
Valleys...banked against the mountains. It is here where the best
chance of significant fog and stratus and the lowest chance of
daytime sun will be found. Also the coolest temperatures and
weakest diurnal swings.

Over the northern Columbia basin and many of the valleys of
northeast Washington and north Idaho a regime of overnight and
morning fog and low clouds with at least partial sunshine in the
afternoons and evenings look plausible...with the protected
valleys north of the basin slowest to scrub each day.

On or about Thursday models are coming into loose agreement on
breaking down or at least substantially weakening the upper ridge
with both the GFS and EC depicting a short wave passage either
Wednesday night or Thursday...followed by a more active close to
the work week with follow on waves. At this time none of these
disturbances looks particularly strong or organized...but well
worth increasing precipitation chances for valley rain and
mountain snow for late in the week. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A strong cold front laying along the Pac coast at 00Z
will pass through KEAT around 06Z and through the eastern TAF
sites around 09Z. Ahead and along this front expect mainly rain
showers with possible MVFR ceilings...except a short period of
snow at KEAT then changing to rain. Ahead of the front especially
over the eastern TAF sites LLWS is expected after sunset decouples
the boundary layer until FROPA. Breezy and gusty conditions will
occur with the FROPA with precipitation quickly tapering
off...except for the Idaho Panhandle and possibly the KCOE TAF
site where upslope post-frontal showers will continue into the
morning hours. Generally decreasing winds and VFR conditions will
prevail during the day Saturday. /MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        33  40  28  40  30  43 /  70  10   0  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  32  40  26  39  30  44 / 100  20  10  10   0   0
Pullman        36  42  30  44  33  48 /  60  10  10  10   0   0
Lewiston       40  50  32  50  35  54 /  20  10  10  10   0   0
Colville       32  39  27  36  29  41 /  80  10   0  10   0   0
Sandpoint      33  39  27  36  29  41 / 100  30  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        32  36  26  37  30  43 / 100  60  10  10   0   0
Moses Lake     32  46  29  43  31  45 /  40   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee      31  42  29  38  30  40 /  40  10   0  10   0   0
Omak           30  40  26  34  29  38 /  60   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM PST
     Saturday for East Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$




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