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000
FXUS66 KSEW 241719
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
920 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WARM FRONT WILL SETTLE
OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING
RAINY AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEATHER...ALONG WITH MILD TEMPERATURES
TO CONTINUE. THANKSGIVING SHOULD BE WET TOO...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
FINALLY MOVES THROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY BRING A BRIEF COOLER
DRIER PERIOD ON SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY BRING A LITTLE RAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS IN PLACE OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING WITH THE AXIS ALONG ROUGHLY 130W. MODELS AND IR IMAGERY SHOW
HEALTHY WARM ADVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WHICH WILL SPREAD
RAIN INLAND OVER W WA TODAY. COASTAL RADAR SHOWS PRECIP FORMING
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT JUST OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE OFFSHORE
RIDGE WILL BUILD GRADUALLY IN PLACE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT
STRONG WARM ADVECTION WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE OVER W WA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS PATTERN IS A
CLASSIC RIVER FLOODING PATTERN WITH LOTS OF RAIN OVER THE CASCADES
AND HIGH SNOW LEVELS.

THE INITIAL WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD GIVE A
FAIRLY UNIFORM DOUSING TO THE CASCADES. LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN
CASCADES SOUTH OF SNOQUALMIE PASS. FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD AS
THE OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
HIGH...WITH RAIN AT ALL THE PASSES. THERE IS STILL HIGH UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL...WITH THE UW AND NWS WRF MODELS
HEAVIEST AND THE NAM MODELS A STEP BEHIND.

THE W WA LOWLANDS SHOULD GET SOMEWHERE BETWEEN A THIRD OF AN INCH UP
TO AN INCH OF RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOWEST AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE OLYMPICS WHERE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PUT THE RAIN SHADOW.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PER THE
12Z GFS...STRONG W FLOW ALOFT WITH AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL
GIVE ANOTHER 24-36 HOUR SHOT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO THE NORTH
CASCADES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 3 AM AFD...THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON THANKSGIVING AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF IN ITS WAKE ON
FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION WITH THAT FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY DECENT TOO.
IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY
DRIER COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW
COURTESY OF A SURFACE HIGH IN SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA.   MCDONNAL

&&

.HYDROLOGY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO AN INITIAL SURGE OF
MOISTURE THIS EVENING THAT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT EVENLY DISTRIBUTED N-S
ACROSS THE CASCADES. THEN HEAVIER PRECIP BECOMES FOCUSED ON THE
CASCADES S OF SNOQUALMIE PASS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.
THEN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTS SLOWLY N MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN OVER THE CASCADES FROM
SNOQUALMIE PASS NORTHWARD. THE UW AND NWS WRF MODELS SHOW MUCH
HEAVIER PRECIP OVER THE AREA WITH 6-9 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THE HIRES NAM CORE HAS MORE LIKE 5-8 INCHES AND
THE 12Z NAM12 MORE LIKE 2-5 INCHES. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING QPF AMOUNTS AND DISTRIBUTION BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE NEED TO BE ISSUED THIS MORNING...ONCE THE REST OF THE
12Z MODELS ARRIVE AND THE MORNING NWRFC FORECASTS. KAM

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 3 AM AFD...AS MENTIONED ABOVE 3 TO 6
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES DURING THE 48 HOURS FROM MIDDAY TODAY THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE TO AROUND 6500 FT TONIGHT AS THE
STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND REMAIN IN THE 6500 TO 7500 FT
RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS PATTERN OF STRONG MOIST WESTERLY FLOW JUST DOWNSTREAM OF A FLAT
UPPER RIDGE IS ONE OF THE CLASSIC FLOOD-PRODUCING PATTERNS FOR
WESTERN WASHINGTON...ESPECIALLY FOR THE RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. THIS EPISODE LOOKS SIMILAR TO -- BUT MUCH
LESS SEVERE THAN -- THE PATTERN THAT PRODUCED THE FLOODS OF LATE
NOVEMBER 1990 AND LATE NOVEMBER 1995.

THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED ARE HEAVY BUT NOT EXTREME...WHICH
MEANS THAT THE FLOOD THREAT WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO THE MOST
FLOOD-PRONE RIVERS THAT FLOW OFF THE CASCADES. THAT GENERALLY
INCLUDES THE COWLITZ...PUYALLUP NEAR ORTING...SNOQUALMIE...TOLT...
SKYKOMISH...SNOHOMISH...STILLAGUAMISH...AND NOOKSACK RIVERS. THE
RIVERS OF THE OLYMPICS ARE NOT LIKELY TO FLOOD IN THIS SCENARIO...
BUT IT DOES NOT SEEM SMART TO RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY ON THE
UNIQUELY FLOOD-PRONE SKOKOMISH RIVER.

IF FLOODING OCCURS...IT WOULD PROBABLY BE MINOR. HOWEVER...THE
FLOODING COULD BECOME WORSE IF THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS
FIXED OVER A PARTICULAR PART OF THE CASCADES FOR MOST OF THE EVENT.
THERE IS TOO MUCH INCONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO KNOW THOSE
DETAILS AT THIS TIME.

WE HAVE DECIDED TO UPDATE THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR NOW...RATHER
THAN GOING TO A FLOOD WATCH. THE DAY SHIFT SHOULD BE IN A BETTER
POSITION TO PIN DOWN A FLOOD WATCH LATER TODAY...AFTER THE 12Z SUITE
OF MODEL QPF IS IN AND THE NORTHWEST RIVER FORECAST CENTER HAS RUN
THE HYDROLOGIC MODEL.   MCDONNAL

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TO NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THEN BECOME STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON TONIGHT.
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IS STABLE AND WILL HAVE INCREASING MOISTURE
ALL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS WELL ABOVE 5K
FT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER GIVING 3-5K FT CEILINGS THIS
AFTERNOON THEN TO MVFR 1-2K FT THIS EVENING AS RAIN DEVELOPS.

KSEA...DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. SOUTHEAST WIND 5-8 KT WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO S10G20 KT THIS AFTERNOON...AND TO 15G25 KT
THIS EVENING. CHB

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-30 KT ARE LIKELY OVER ALL WATERS
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS.
THE WARM FRONT WILL REACH THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE WATERS THIS
EVENING THEN WILL BECOME STATIONARY TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY. THE
WARM FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
IN EFFECT OVER ALL WATERS INCLUDING THE CENTRAL STRAIT WHERE A BRIEF
WESTERLY PUSH IS LIKELY THIS EVENING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS ON
FRIDAY AS A COLD HIGH PRES SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. BY LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA WITH FRASER OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN INLAND
WATERS.

HAZARDOUS SWELL OF 10 FEET OR SO WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







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000
FXUS66 KPQR 241707
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
906 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
DRY THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
RAIN WITH RISING SNOW LEVELS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. A WARM FRONTAL ZONE STALLS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE
FRONTAL BAND BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO
DO SO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
THANKSGIVING DAY FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...NO APPRECIABLE RADAR
RETURNS SHOWING UP ON KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR AS OF 1630Z. AREAS
OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST TODAY. CLOUDS TO INCREASE AND THICKEN THIS AFTEROON
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT LATE TODAY APPEARS
TO BE OVER SW WA AND HAVE UPPED POPS THERE. A WARM FRONTAL BAROCLINC
ZONE AIDED BY A STRONG JET DEVELOPS OVER WRN WA AND EXTREME NW OREGON
TONIGHT. LATEST PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES INDICATE 1 TO 1.25
INCHES WITH THIS FEATURE. HEAVIEST QPF TONIGHT WILL BE CENTERED ON
THE SW WA FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES. HAVE NUDGED THE 06Z-12Z QPF NUMBERS
UP A BIT MORE FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...UP TO NEARLY 2/3 OF AN INCH
IN THE 6-HOUR PERIOD WHICH MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
MOST ROBUST WITH QPF...INDICATING 1 TO 1.25 INCHES IN THE SW WA
CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS IN THE 06Z-12Z PERIOD AND OVER 2 INCHES IN THE
12Z-18Z PERIOD. THESE VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE THOSE OF THE NAM AND
ECMWF. THE GFS DOES HAVE UPWARDS OF 40 KT WLY 850 MB FLOW INTO THE S
WA CASCADES WHICH WOULD GENERATE IMPRESSIVE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT.
WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THIS TIME PERIOD IN MORE DETAIL FOR THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST.

SNOW LEVELS RISE TO ABOVE 8000 FEET BY TONIGHT AND REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODELS GRADUALLY FORCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
NORTHWARD LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT. SW WA AND THE EXTREME NRN OREGON
ZONES MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY WED...BUT AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A
KTMK-KSLE LINE SHOULD BE DRY. 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 10C WED...BUT
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL TEMPER THE WARMING IN THOSE AREAS.
MODELS ARE COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXPECTED FOR EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL REACH THE
COAST BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY...PUSHING INLAND THROUGH NOON
THANKSGIVING DAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY..LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THANKSGIVING DAY AS A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY TAKE THE
DEPARTING FRONTS PLACE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS FURTHER INTO CANADA. MODELS ARE HINTING ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN OREGON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CASCADES
AND LOW PRESSURE SETTING UP JUST OFF THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA COAST.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP...BRINGING BREEZY EAST WINDS THROUGH THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. /27

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS AND VISIBILITY HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR SOUTH OF
SALEM THIS MORNING. THE FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS
NORTH OF SALEM SHOULD IMPROVE THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE SPOTTY AREAS OF FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING.
ESPECIALLY WHERE THE WINDS ARE CALM LIKE KHIO...KVUO...AND KMMV.
AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE COAST AROUND
NOON...ALTHOUGH THE NORTH COAST WILL CONTINUE MVFR CIGS THROUGH
THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PERIODIC REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES WITH LIGHT RAIN. MVFR CIGS AND
RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AD INTO TUE MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING BECOMING A
FRONT LOWERS CONDITIONS TO MVFR AFTER 00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT AROUND NOON. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOCALIZED GUSTS AROUND 35 KT WITH THE FRONT
PASSAGE...MAINLY WITHIN 20 NM BETWEEN 3 AND 7 PM. THE WINDS WILL
EASE BELOW 25 KT AND VEER TO THE SW TONIGHT. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY UP TO 25 KT. THESE WINDS ARE DUE TO
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT
MAY GENERATE SOUTHERLY GALES WED OR WED NIGHT.

A WEST SWELL WITH WAVE PERIODS AROUND 14 SECONDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WIND WAVES INCREASE IN HEIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
COMBINED SEAS AROUND 10 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS AT OR
ABOVE 10 FT MAY HOLD ON NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD INTO WED MORNING DUE
TO THE LOCALIZED STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY...BEFORE BUILDING WITH THE NEXT
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 11 PM
     PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 241707
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
906 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
DRY THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
RAIN WITH RISING SNOW LEVELS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. A WARM FRONTAL ZONE STALLS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE
FRONTAL BAND BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO
DO SO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
THANKSGIVING DAY FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...NO APPRECIABLE RADAR
RETURNS SHOWING UP ON KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR AS OF 1630Z. AREAS
OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST TODAY. CLOUDS TO INCREASE AND THICKEN THIS AFTEROON
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT LATE TODAY APPEARS
TO BE OVER SW WA AND HAVE UPPED POPS THERE. A WARM FRONTAL BAROCLINC
ZONE AIDED BY A STRONG JET DEVELOPS OVER WRN WA AND EXTREME NW OREGON
TONIGHT. LATEST PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES INDICATE 1 TO 1.25
INCHES WITH THIS FEATURE. HEAVIEST QPF TONIGHT WILL BE CENTERED ON
THE SW WA FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES. HAVE NUDGED THE 06Z-12Z QPF NUMBERS
UP A BIT MORE FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...UP TO NEARLY 2/3 OF AN INCH
IN THE 6-HOUR PERIOD WHICH MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
MOST ROBUST WITH QPF...INDICATING 1 TO 1.25 INCHES IN THE SW WA
CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS IN THE 06Z-12Z PERIOD AND OVER 2 INCHES IN THE
12Z-18Z PERIOD. THESE VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE THOSE OF THE NAM AND
ECMWF. THE GFS DOES HAVE UPWARDS OF 40 KT WLY 850 MB FLOW INTO THE S
WA CASCADES WHICH WOULD GENERATE IMPRESSIVE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT.
WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THIS TIME PERIOD IN MORE DETAIL FOR THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST.

SNOW LEVELS RISE TO ABOVE 8000 FEET BY TONIGHT AND REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODELS GRADUALLY FORCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
NORTHWARD LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT. SW WA AND THE EXTREME NRN OREGON
ZONES MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY WED...BUT AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A
KTMK-KSLE LINE SHOULD BE DRY. 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 10C WED...BUT
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL TEMPER THE WARMING IN THOSE AREAS.
MODELS ARE COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXPECTED FOR EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL REACH THE
COAST BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY...PUSHING INLAND THROUGH NOON
THANKSGIVING DAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY..LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THANKSGIVING DAY AS A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY TAKE THE
DEPARTING FRONTS PLACE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS FURTHER INTO CANADA. MODELS ARE HINTING ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN OREGON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CASCADES
AND LOW PRESSURE SETTING UP JUST OFF THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA COAST.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP...BRINGING BREEZY EAST WINDS THROUGH THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. /27

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS AND VISIBILITY HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR SOUTH OF
SALEM THIS MORNING. THE FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS
NORTH OF SALEM SHOULD IMPROVE THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE SPOTTY AREAS OF FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING.
ESPECIALLY WHERE THE WINDS ARE CALM LIKE KHIO...KVUO...AND KMMV.
AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE COAST AROUND
NOON...ALTHOUGH THE NORTH COAST WILL CONTINUE MVFR CIGS THROUGH
THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PERIODIC REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES WITH LIGHT RAIN. MVFR CIGS AND
RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AD INTO TUE MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING BECOMING A
FRONT LOWERS CONDITIONS TO MVFR AFTER 00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT AROUND NOON. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOCALIZED GUSTS AROUND 35 KT WITH THE FRONT
PASSAGE...MAINLY WITHIN 20 NM BETWEEN 3 AND 7 PM. THE WINDS WILL
EASE BELOW 25 KT AND VEER TO THE SW TONIGHT. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY UP TO 25 KT. THESE WINDS ARE DUE TO
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT
MAY GENERATE SOUTHERLY GALES WED OR WED NIGHT.

A WEST SWELL WITH WAVE PERIODS AROUND 14 SECONDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WIND WAVES INCREASE IN HEIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
COMBINED SEAS AROUND 10 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS AT OR
ABOVE 10 FT MAY HOLD ON NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD INTO WED MORNING DUE
TO THE LOCALIZED STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY...BEFORE BUILDING WITH THE NEXT
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 11 PM
     PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 241707
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
906 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
DRY THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
RAIN WITH RISING SNOW LEVELS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. A WARM FRONTAL ZONE STALLS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE
FRONTAL BAND BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO
DO SO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
THANKSGIVING DAY FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...NO APPRECIABLE RADAR
RETURNS SHOWING UP ON KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR AS OF 1630Z. AREAS
OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST TODAY. CLOUDS TO INCREASE AND THICKEN THIS AFTEROON
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT LATE TODAY APPEARS
TO BE OVER SW WA AND HAVE UPPED POPS THERE. A WARM FRONTAL BAROCLINC
ZONE AIDED BY A STRONG JET DEVELOPS OVER WRN WA AND EXTREME NW OREGON
TONIGHT. LATEST PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES INDICATE 1 TO 1.25
INCHES WITH THIS FEATURE. HEAVIEST QPF TONIGHT WILL BE CENTERED ON
THE SW WA FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES. HAVE NUDGED THE 06Z-12Z QPF NUMBERS
UP A BIT MORE FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...UP TO NEARLY 2/3 OF AN INCH
IN THE 6-HOUR PERIOD WHICH MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
MOST ROBUST WITH QPF...INDICATING 1 TO 1.25 INCHES IN THE SW WA
CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS IN THE 06Z-12Z PERIOD AND OVER 2 INCHES IN THE
12Z-18Z PERIOD. THESE VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE THOSE OF THE NAM AND
ECMWF. THE GFS DOES HAVE UPWARDS OF 40 KT WLY 850 MB FLOW INTO THE S
WA CASCADES WHICH WOULD GENERATE IMPRESSIVE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT.
WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THIS TIME PERIOD IN MORE DETAIL FOR THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST.

SNOW LEVELS RISE TO ABOVE 8000 FEET BY TONIGHT AND REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODELS GRADUALLY FORCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
NORTHWARD LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT. SW WA AND THE EXTREME NRN OREGON
ZONES MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY WED...BUT AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A
KTMK-KSLE LINE SHOULD BE DRY. 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 10C WED...BUT
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL TEMPER THE WARMING IN THOSE AREAS.
MODELS ARE COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXPECTED FOR EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL REACH THE
COAST BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY...PUSHING INLAND THROUGH NOON
THANKSGIVING DAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY..LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THANKSGIVING DAY AS A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY TAKE THE
DEPARTING FRONTS PLACE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS FURTHER INTO CANADA. MODELS ARE HINTING ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN OREGON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CASCADES
AND LOW PRESSURE SETTING UP JUST OFF THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA COAST.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP...BRINGING BREEZY EAST WINDS THROUGH THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. /27

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS AND VISIBILITY HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR SOUTH OF
SALEM THIS MORNING. THE FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS
NORTH OF SALEM SHOULD IMPROVE THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE SPOTTY AREAS OF FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING.
ESPECIALLY WHERE THE WINDS ARE CALM LIKE KHIO...KVUO...AND KMMV.
AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE COAST AROUND
NOON...ALTHOUGH THE NORTH COAST WILL CONTINUE MVFR CIGS THROUGH
THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PERIODIC REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES WITH LIGHT RAIN. MVFR CIGS AND
RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AD INTO TUE MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING BECOMING A
FRONT LOWERS CONDITIONS TO MVFR AFTER 00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT AROUND NOON. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOCALIZED GUSTS AROUND 35 KT WITH THE FRONT
PASSAGE...MAINLY WITHIN 20 NM BETWEEN 3 AND 7 PM. THE WINDS WILL
EASE BELOW 25 KT AND VEER TO THE SW TONIGHT. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY UP TO 25 KT. THESE WINDS ARE DUE TO
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT
MAY GENERATE SOUTHERLY GALES WED OR WED NIGHT.

A WEST SWELL WITH WAVE PERIODS AROUND 14 SECONDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WIND WAVES INCREASE IN HEIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
COMBINED SEAS AROUND 10 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS AT OR
ABOVE 10 FT MAY HOLD ON NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD INTO WED MORNING DUE
TO THE LOCALIZED STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY...BEFORE BUILDING WITH THE NEXT
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 11 PM
     PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 241707
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
906 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
DRY THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
RAIN WITH RISING SNOW LEVELS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. A WARM FRONTAL ZONE STALLS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE
FRONTAL BAND BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO
DO SO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
THANKSGIVING DAY FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...NO APPRECIABLE RADAR
RETURNS SHOWING UP ON KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR AS OF 1630Z. AREAS
OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST TODAY. CLOUDS TO INCREASE AND THICKEN THIS AFTEROON
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT LATE TODAY APPEARS
TO BE OVER SW WA AND HAVE UPPED POPS THERE. A WARM FRONTAL BAROCLINC
ZONE AIDED BY A STRONG JET DEVELOPS OVER WRN WA AND EXTREME NW OREGON
TONIGHT. LATEST PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES INDICATE 1 TO 1.25
INCHES WITH THIS FEATURE. HEAVIEST QPF TONIGHT WILL BE CENTERED ON
THE SW WA FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES. HAVE NUDGED THE 06Z-12Z QPF NUMBERS
UP A BIT MORE FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...UP TO NEARLY 2/3 OF AN INCH
IN THE 6-HOUR PERIOD WHICH MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
MOST ROBUST WITH QPF...INDICATING 1 TO 1.25 INCHES IN THE SW WA
CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS IN THE 06Z-12Z PERIOD AND OVER 2 INCHES IN THE
12Z-18Z PERIOD. THESE VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE THOSE OF THE NAM AND
ECMWF. THE GFS DOES HAVE UPWARDS OF 40 KT WLY 850 MB FLOW INTO THE S
WA CASCADES WHICH WOULD GENERATE IMPRESSIVE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT.
WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THIS TIME PERIOD IN MORE DETAIL FOR THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST.

SNOW LEVELS RISE TO ABOVE 8000 FEET BY TONIGHT AND REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODELS GRADUALLY FORCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
NORTHWARD LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT. SW WA AND THE EXTREME NRN OREGON
ZONES MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY WED...BUT AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A
KTMK-KSLE LINE SHOULD BE DRY. 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 10C WED...BUT
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL TEMPER THE WARMING IN THOSE AREAS.
MODELS ARE COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXPECTED FOR EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL REACH THE
COAST BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY...PUSHING INLAND THROUGH NOON
THANKSGIVING DAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY..LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THANKSGIVING DAY AS A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY TAKE THE
DEPARTING FRONTS PLACE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS FURTHER INTO CANADA. MODELS ARE HINTING ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN OREGON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CASCADES
AND LOW PRESSURE SETTING UP JUST OFF THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA COAST.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP...BRINGING BREEZY EAST WINDS THROUGH THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. /27

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS AND VISIBILITY HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR SOUTH OF
SALEM THIS MORNING. THE FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS
NORTH OF SALEM SHOULD IMPROVE THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE SPOTTY AREAS OF FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING.
ESPECIALLY WHERE THE WINDS ARE CALM LIKE KHIO...KVUO...AND KMMV.
AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE COAST AROUND
NOON...ALTHOUGH THE NORTH COAST WILL CONTINUE MVFR CIGS THROUGH
THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PERIODIC REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES WITH LIGHT RAIN. MVFR CIGS AND
RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AD INTO TUE MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING BECOMING A
FRONT LOWERS CONDITIONS TO MVFR AFTER 00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT AROUND NOON. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOCALIZED GUSTS AROUND 35 KT WITH THE FRONT
PASSAGE...MAINLY WITHIN 20 NM BETWEEN 3 AND 7 PM. THE WINDS WILL
EASE BELOW 25 KT AND VEER TO THE SW TONIGHT. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY UP TO 25 KT. THESE WINDS ARE DUE TO
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT
MAY GENERATE SOUTHERLY GALES WED OR WED NIGHT.

A WEST SWELL WITH WAVE PERIODS AROUND 14 SECONDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WIND WAVES INCREASE IN HEIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
COMBINED SEAS AROUND 10 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS AT OR
ABOVE 10 FT MAY HOLD ON NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD INTO WED MORNING DUE
TO THE LOCALIZED STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY...BEFORE BUILDING WITH THE NEXT
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 11 PM
     PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


  [top]

000
FXUS66 KOTX 241232
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
432 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather today will be relatively chilly and quiet prior to the
arrival of a wet storm system tonight. Rain and mountain snow is
expected to develop this evening. Tonight, Tuesday and Tuesday
night will be rainy with the Idaho Panhandle and the Cascades
receiving a couple inches of rain by Wednesday. A breezy and wet
but warm Thanksgiving Day will give way to a colder weather
pattern for the holiday weekend with the mountains receiving
several rounds of snow. Snow levels will fall to valley floors by
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today: For today, our attention will be on the potential for fog
development this morning. Satellite and web cameras show areas of
thick fog in the valleys north of Spokane around Colville, Priest
Lake, Cusick, and Lincoln. Winds have diminished overnight over
the West Plains, Spokane area, and Coeur D`Alene. There is a good
chance of fog development around sunrise in these locations. By
this afternoon, a low pressure system making landfall in southern
British Columbia will spread warm frontal precipitation into the
northern Cascades and the mountains along the Canadian border.
Precipitation will be in the form of snow this afternoon in these
areas.

Tonight through Tuesday: Precipitation is expected to blossom
quickly this evening over the Idaho Panhandle and eastern third of
Washington. Strong low level warm advection will likely lead to
precipitation falling in the form of rain or rain/snow mix in
Spokane, Coeur D`Alene and Pullman with no accumulation. The
valleys north of the metro will be a tough call as snow levels
will be rising through the night. At this time it looks like
Sandpoint, Bonners Ferry, Priest Lake, and Metaline Falls will
have a good shot at receiving 1 to 3 inches of wet accumulation
before snow transitions to rain on early Tuesday morning. At this
time, much of the Silver Valley looks to be too warm for
accumulating snow. A Winter Storm Watch will be issued for the
mountains of far north Idaho and northeast Washington above 4000
feet. Snow levels will make or break this event. It is possible
that warm advection could push snow levels high enough that all
but the highest peaks transition to rain Tuesday and Tuesday
night.

Of additional concern will be the rain amounts anticipated over
the Palouse, Shoshone County and the headwaters of the Stehekin
River. Thirty-six hour rainfall totals from the NAM and GFS
suggest 1 to 2 inches of precipitation, mostly in the form of rain
over the headwaters of the Palouse River. The combination of
rainfall and melting snow Tuesday into Wednesday raises our
concern for the creeks ad streams feeding the Palouse River
including Paradise Creek at Moscow. High snow levels over the
Cascades and two-day rain totals in the 2 to 3 inch range over the
Crest will also raise our concerns for the Stehekin River and some
of the tributaries feeding the Wenatchee River. We will be
coordinating the forecasts with the River Forecast Center this
morning to assess the potential for river statement or watches.
/GKoch

Wednesday through Friday night: Narrow elongated ridging off the
coast and the jet stream draped across it and just to the north in
Canada along with no cold air in valleys and lowlands to overrun
is how this interval of time should start off. Any disturbances
that ride along the periphery of the ridge are expected to remain
fairly close to the Northern British Columbia Border but have some
potential to penetrate further to the southeast over North Idaho
as the flow becomes more from the Northwest there. By Thursday
there is more digging into west side of the ridge off the coast
which allows this pattern to remain in place through Wednesday
night. At about Thanksgiving and beyond there is more uncertainty
due to the complexity of the meteorological setup with the
expectation that the Jet stream may be directly overhead parts of
Eastern Washington and North Idaho aligned southwest to northeast.
This is due to the earlier mentioned digging, deepening, and
intensification of the cold trof off the coast which deamplifies
the earlier mentioned Narrow elongated ridge off the coast. The
overall effect is to allow any moisture streaming through the
baroclinicity of the offshore trof and over the top of the the
remaining weak ridging in the area to sag southeast and pass over
Eastern Washington and North Idaho Thanksgiving day and night so
pops remain high with gusty brisk winds and snow levels that are
high enough to with valley rain and mountain snow wording...indeed
higher mountains will get snow and accumulate but the lodge level
elevations from about 4000 ft MSL and below will see mostly rain.
This moisture stream continues slow sag into Friday night but
current models are slower with this progression and not bringing
in the cold air from the north down as fast. This is an important
change so I adjusted the forecast for Friday and Friday night by
warming the temperatures and raising the snow levels and held off
on the shift to northerly winds until much later Friday night.
/Pelatti

Saturday through Monday: The zonal flow pattern will slowly
transition to a southern flow as a Low approaches the Oregon
coast and bring moist and warm air into the region. With the
temperatures expected to be near freezing this is expected to
bring snow to the mountains of the region and rain/snow mix to
the Basin and lower elevations. With more model runs, the type of
precip will become clearer. Returning travel from the Holiday
could be impacted especially in the mountain passes. Temperatures
will range from the mid 30s to low 20s during this period. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Low stratus of fog will be a good bet at Spokane and
Coeur D`Alene around sunrise. The satellite fog channel shows the
valleys north of the city filled with fog and a bit of low clouds
or fog south of town. Light south winds should push this low
stratus south of KGEG, KSFF and KCOE into these terminals. It is
tough to tell if this ragged low cloud is hugging the ground of a
few hundred feet above ground level. Some amendments will be
likely this morning. The NAM and GFS forecast the development of
precipitation between 0z-06z with rain the predominant
precipitation type at Spokane, Coeur D`Alene, Pullman and
Lewiston. It looks like snow for Sandpoint and Bonners Ferry.
/GKoch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  35  40  38  47  33 /  10  60  70  60  50  30
Coeur d`Alene  38  35  40  37  45  32 /  10  90  90  70  60  40
Pullman        42  38  48  45  50  35 /  10  70  80  60  30  30
Lewiston       49  40  52  46  54  38 /  10  70  80  30  20  20
Colville       37  32  39  34  42  28 /  20  70  70  70  50  40
Sandpoint      35  33  38  34  41  28 /  30 100  90  80  80  60
Kellogg        36  33  38  37  40  32 /  10 100 100 100  70  60
Moses Lake     41  35  46  40  52  34 /   0  10  20  10  20  10
Wenatchee      43  36  45  40  49  33 /  10  10  20  20  30  20
Omak           34  32  38  35  43  30 /  10  20  60  60  50  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Tuesday evening for
     Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Tuesday evening for
     Northeast Mountains.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 241232
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
432 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather today will be relatively chilly and quiet prior to the
arrival of a wet storm system tonight. Rain and mountain snow is
expected to develop this evening. Tonight, Tuesday and Tuesday
night will be rainy with the Idaho Panhandle and the Cascades
receiving a couple inches of rain by Wednesday. A breezy and wet
but warm Thanksgiving Day will give way to a colder weather
pattern for the holiday weekend with the mountains receiving
several rounds of snow. Snow levels will fall to valley floors by
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today: For today, our attention will be on the potential for fog
development this morning. Satellite and web cameras show areas of
thick fog in the valleys north of Spokane around Colville, Priest
Lake, Cusick, and Lincoln. Winds have diminished overnight over
the West Plains, Spokane area, and Coeur D`Alene. There is a good
chance of fog development around sunrise in these locations. By
this afternoon, a low pressure system making landfall in southern
British Columbia will spread warm frontal precipitation into the
northern Cascades and the mountains along the Canadian border.
Precipitation will be in the form of snow this afternoon in these
areas.

Tonight through Tuesday: Precipitation is expected to blossom
quickly this evening over the Idaho Panhandle and eastern third of
Washington. Strong low level warm advection will likely lead to
precipitation falling in the form of rain or rain/snow mix in
Spokane, Coeur D`Alene and Pullman with no accumulation. The
valleys north of the metro will be a tough call as snow levels
will be rising through the night. At this time it looks like
Sandpoint, Bonners Ferry, Priest Lake, and Metaline Falls will
have a good shot at receiving 1 to 3 inches of wet accumulation
before snow transitions to rain on early Tuesday morning. At this
time, much of the Silver Valley looks to be too warm for
accumulating snow. A Winter Storm Watch will be issued for the
mountains of far north Idaho and northeast Washington above 4000
feet. Snow levels will make or break this event. It is possible
that warm advection could push snow levels high enough that all
but the highest peaks transition to rain Tuesday and Tuesday
night.

Of additional concern will be the rain amounts anticipated over
the Palouse, Shoshone County and the headwaters of the Stehekin
River. Thirty-six hour rainfall totals from the NAM and GFS
suggest 1 to 2 inches of precipitation, mostly in the form of rain
over the headwaters of the Palouse River. The combination of
rainfall and melting snow Tuesday into Wednesday raises our
concern for the creeks ad streams feeding the Palouse River
including Paradise Creek at Moscow. High snow levels over the
Cascades and two-day rain totals in the 2 to 3 inch range over the
Crest will also raise our concerns for the Stehekin River and some
of the tributaries feeding the Wenatchee River. We will be
coordinating the forecasts with the River Forecast Center this
morning to assess the potential for river statement or watches.
/GKoch

Wednesday through Friday night: Narrow elongated ridging off the
coast and the jet stream draped across it and just to the north in
Canada along with no cold air in valleys and lowlands to overrun
is how this interval of time should start off. Any disturbances
that ride along the periphery of the ridge are expected to remain
fairly close to the Northern British Columbia Border but have some
potential to penetrate further to the southeast over North Idaho
as the flow becomes more from the Northwest there. By Thursday
there is more digging into west side of the ridge off the coast
which allows this pattern to remain in place through Wednesday
night. At about Thanksgiving and beyond there is more uncertainty
due to the complexity of the meteorological setup with the
expectation that the Jet stream may be directly overhead parts of
Eastern Washington and North Idaho aligned southwest to northeast.
This is due to the earlier mentioned digging, deepening, and
intensification of the cold trof off the coast which deamplifies
the earlier mentioned Narrow elongated ridge off the coast. The
overall effect is to allow any moisture streaming through the
baroclinicity of the offshore trof and over the top of the the
remaining weak ridging in the area to sag southeast and pass over
Eastern Washington and North Idaho Thanksgiving day and night so
pops remain high with gusty brisk winds and snow levels that are
high enough to with valley rain and mountain snow wording...indeed
higher mountains will get snow and accumulate but the lodge level
elevations from about 4000 ft MSL and below will see mostly rain.
This moisture stream continues slow sag into Friday night but
current models are slower with this progression and not bringing
in the cold air from the north down as fast. This is an important
change so I adjusted the forecast for Friday and Friday night by
warming the temperatures and raising the snow levels and held off
on the shift to northerly winds until much later Friday night.
/Pelatti

Saturday through Monday: The zonal flow pattern will slowly
transition to a southern flow as a Low approaches the Oregon
coast and bring moist and warm air into the region. With the
temperatures expected to be near freezing this is expected to
bring snow to the mountains of the region and rain/snow mix to
the Basin and lower elevations. With more model runs, the type of
precip will become clearer. Returning travel from the Holiday
could be impacted especially in the mountain passes. Temperatures
will range from the mid 30s to low 20s during this period. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Low stratus of fog will be a good bet at Spokane and
Coeur D`Alene around sunrise. The satellite fog channel shows the
valleys north of the city filled with fog and a bit of low clouds
or fog south of town. Light south winds should push this low
stratus south of KGEG, KSFF and KCOE into these terminals. It is
tough to tell if this ragged low cloud is hugging the ground of a
few hundred feet above ground level. Some amendments will be
likely this morning. The NAM and GFS forecast the development of
precipitation between 0z-06z with rain the predominant
precipitation type at Spokane, Coeur D`Alene, Pullman and
Lewiston. It looks like snow for Sandpoint and Bonners Ferry.
/GKoch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  35  40  38  47  33 /  10  60  70  60  50  30
Coeur d`Alene  38  35  40  37  45  32 /  10  90  90  70  60  40
Pullman        42  38  48  45  50  35 /  10  70  80  60  30  30
Lewiston       49  40  52  46  54  38 /  10  70  80  30  20  20
Colville       37  32  39  34  42  28 /  20  70  70  70  50  40
Sandpoint      35  33  38  34  41  28 /  30 100  90  80  80  60
Kellogg        36  33  38  37  40  32 /  10 100 100 100  70  60
Moses Lake     41  35  46  40  52  34 /   0  10  20  10  20  10
Wenatchee      43  36  45  40  49  33 /  10  10  20  20  30  20
Omak           34  32  38  35  43  30 /  10  20  60  60  50  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Tuesday evening for
     Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Tuesday evening for
     Northeast Mountains.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 241232
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
432 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather today will be relatively chilly and quiet prior to the
arrival of a wet storm system tonight. Rain and mountain snow is
expected to develop this evening. Tonight, Tuesday and Tuesday
night will be rainy with the Idaho Panhandle and the Cascades
receiving a couple inches of rain by Wednesday. A breezy and wet
but warm Thanksgiving Day will give way to a colder weather
pattern for the holiday weekend with the mountains receiving
several rounds of snow. Snow levels will fall to valley floors by
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today: For today, our attention will be on the potential for fog
development this morning. Satellite and web cameras show areas of
thick fog in the valleys north of Spokane around Colville, Priest
Lake, Cusick, and Lincoln. Winds have diminished overnight over
the West Plains, Spokane area, and Coeur D`Alene. There is a good
chance of fog development around sunrise in these locations. By
this afternoon, a low pressure system making landfall in southern
British Columbia will spread warm frontal precipitation into the
northern Cascades and the mountains along the Canadian border.
Precipitation will be in the form of snow this afternoon in these
areas.

Tonight through Tuesday: Precipitation is expected to blossom
quickly this evening over the Idaho Panhandle and eastern third of
Washington. Strong low level warm advection will likely lead to
precipitation falling in the form of rain or rain/snow mix in
Spokane, Coeur D`Alene and Pullman with no accumulation. The
valleys north of the metro will be a tough call as snow levels
will be rising through the night. At this time it looks like
Sandpoint, Bonners Ferry, Priest Lake, and Metaline Falls will
have a good shot at receiving 1 to 3 inches of wet accumulation
before snow transitions to rain on early Tuesday morning. At this
time, much of the Silver Valley looks to be too warm for
accumulating snow. A Winter Storm Watch will be issued for the
mountains of far north Idaho and northeast Washington above 4000
feet. Snow levels will make or break this event. It is possible
that warm advection could push snow levels high enough that all
but the highest peaks transition to rain Tuesday and Tuesday
night.

Of additional concern will be the rain amounts anticipated over
the Palouse, Shoshone County and the headwaters of the Stehekin
River. Thirty-six hour rainfall totals from the NAM and GFS
suggest 1 to 2 inches of precipitation, mostly in the form of rain
over the headwaters of the Palouse River. The combination of
rainfall and melting snow Tuesday into Wednesday raises our
concern for the creeks ad streams feeding the Palouse River
including Paradise Creek at Moscow. High snow levels over the
Cascades and two-day rain totals in the 2 to 3 inch range over the
Crest will also raise our concerns for the Stehekin River and some
of the tributaries feeding the Wenatchee River. We will be
coordinating the forecasts with the River Forecast Center this
morning to assess the potential for river statement or watches.
/GKoch

Wednesday through Friday night: Narrow elongated ridging off the
coast and the jet stream draped across it and just to the north in
Canada along with no cold air in valleys and lowlands to overrun
is how this interval of time should start off. Any disturbances
that ride along the periphery of the ridge are expected to remain
fairly close to the Northern British Columbia Border but have some
potential to penetrate further to the southeast over North Idaho
as the flow becomes more from the Northwest there. By Thursday
there is more digging into west side of the ridge off the coast
which allows this pattern to remain in place through Wednesday
night. At about Thanksgiving and beyond there is more uncertainty
due to the complexity of the meteorological setup with the
expectation that the Jet stream may be directly overhead parts of
Eastern Washington and North Idaho aligned southwest to northeast.
This is due to the earlier mentioned digging, deepening, and
intensification of the cold trof off the coast which deamplifies
the earlier mentioned Narrow elongated ridge off the coast. The
overall effect is to allow any moisture streaming through the
baroclinicity of the offshore trof and over the top of the the
remaining weak ridging in the area to sag southeast and pass over
Eastern Washington and North Idaho Thanksgiving day and night so
pops remain high with gusty brisk winds and snow levels that are
high enough to with valley rain and mountain snow wording...indeed
higher mountains will get snow and accumulate but the lodge level
elevations from about 4000 ft MSL and below will see mostly rain.
This moisture stream continues slow sag into Friday night but
current models are slower with this progression and not bringing
in the cold air from the north down as fast. This is an important
change so I adjusted the forecast for Friday and Friday night by
warming the temperatures and raising the snow levels and held off
on the shift to northerly winds until much later Friday night.
/Pelatti

Saturday through Monday: The zonal flow pattern will slowly
transition to a southern flow as a Low approaches the Oregon
coast and bring moist and warm air into the region. With the
temperatures expected to be near freezing this is expected to
bring snow to the mountains of the region and rain/snow mix to
the Basin and lower elevations. With more model runs, the type of
precip will become clearer. Returning travel from the Holiday
could be impacted especially in the mountain passes. Temperatures
will range from the mid 30s to low 20s during this period. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Low stratus of fog will be a good bet at Spokane and
Coeur D`Alene around sunrise. The satellite fog channel shows the
valleys north of the city filled with fog and a bit of low clouds
or fog south of town. Light south winds should push this low
stratus south of KGEG, KSFF and KCOE into these terminals. It is
tough to tell if this ragged low cloud is hugging the ground of a
few hundred feet above ground level. Some amendments will be
likely this morning. The NAM and GFS forecast the development of
precipitation between 0z-06z with rain the predominant
precipitation type at Spokane, Coeur D`Alene, Pullman and
Lewiston. It looks like snow for Sandpoint and Bonners Ferry.
/GKoch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  35  40  38  47  33 /  10  60  70  60  50  30
Coeur d`Alene  38  35  40  37  45  32 /  10  90  90  70  60  40
Pullman        42  38  48  45  50  35 /  10  70  80  60  30  30
Lewiston       49  40  52  46  54  38 /  10  70  80  30  20  20
Colville       37  32  39  34  42  28 /  20  70  70  70  50  40
Sandpoint      35  33  38  34  41  28 /  30 100  90  80  80  60
Kellogg        36  33  38  37  40  32 /  10 100 100 100  70  60
Moses Lake     41  35  46  40  52  34 /   0  10  20  10  20  10
Wenatchee      43  36  45  40  49  33 /  10  10  20  20  30  20
Omak           34  32  38  35  43  30 /  10  20  60  60  50  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Tuesday evening for
     Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Tuesday evening for
     Northeast Mountains.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 241232
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
432 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather today will be relatively chilly and quiet prior to the
arrival of a wet storm system tonight. Rain and mountain snow is
expected to develop this evening. Tonight, Tuesday and Tuesday
night will be rainy with the Idaho Panhandle and the Cascades
receiving a couple inches of rain by Wednesday. A breezy and wet
but warm Thanksgiving Day will give way to a colder weather
pattern for the holiday weekend with the mountains receiving
several rounds of snow. Snow levels will fall to valley floors by
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today: For today, our attention will be on the potential for fog
development this morning. Satellite and web cameras show areas of
thick fog in the valleys north of Spokane around Colville, Priest
Lake, Cusick, and Lincoln. Winds have diminished overnight over
the West Plains, Spokane area, and Coeur D`Alene. There is a good
chance of fog development around sunrise in these locations. By
this afternoon, a low pressure system making landfall in southern
British Columbia will spread warm frontal precipitation into the
northern Cascades and the mountains along the Canadian border.
Precipitation will be in the form of snow this afternoon in these
areas.

Tonight through Tuesday: Precipitation is expected to blossom
quickly this evening over the Idaho Panhandle and eastern third of
Washington. Strong low level warm advection will likely lead to
precipitation falling in the form of rain or rain/snow mix in
Spokane, Coeur D`Alene and Pullman with no accumulation. The
valleys north of the metro will be a tough call as snow levels
will be rising through the night. At this time it looks like
Sandpoint, Bonners Ferry, Priest Lake, and Metaline Falls will
have a good shot at receiving 1 to 3 inches of wet accumulation
before snow transitions to rain on early Tuesday morning. At this
time, much of the Silver Valley looks to be too warm for
accumulating snow. A Winter Storm Watch will be issued for the
mountains of far north Idaho and northeast Washington above 4000
feet. Snow levels will make or break this event. It is possible
that warm advection could push snow levels high enough that all
but the highest peaks transition to rain Tuesday and Tuesday
night.

Of additional concern will be the rain amounts anticipated over
the Palouse, Shoshone County and the headwaters of the Stehekin
River. Thirty-six hour rainfall totals from the NAM and GFS
suggest 1 to 2 inches of precipitation, mostly in the form of rain
over the headwaters of the Palouse River. The combination of
rainfall and melting snow Tuesday into Wednesday raises our
concern for the creeks ad streams feeding the Palouse River
including Paradise Creek at Moscow. High snow levels over the
Cascades and two-day rain totals in the 2 to 3 inch range over the
Crest will also raise our concerns for the Stehekin River and some
of the tributaries feeding the Wenatchee River. We will be
coordinating the forecasts with the River Forecast Center this
morning to assess the potential for river statement or watches.
/GKoch

Wednesday through Friday night: Narrow elongated ridging off the
coast and the jet stream draped across it and just to the north in
Canada along with no cold air in valleys and lowlands to overrun
is how this interval of time should start off. Any disturbances
that ride along the periphery of the ridge are expected to remain
fairly close to the Northern British Columbia Border but have some
potential to penetrate further to the southeast over North Idaho
as the flow becomes more from the Northwest there. By Thursday
there is more digging into west side of the ridge off the coast
which allows this pattern to remain in place through Wednesday
night. At about Thanksgiving and beyond there is more uncertainty
due to the complexity of the meteorological setup with the
expectation that the Jet stream may be directly overhead parts of
Eastern Washington and North Idaho aligned southwest to northeast.
This is due to the earlier mentioned digging, deepening, and
intensification of the cold trof off the coast which deamplifies
the earlier mentioned Narrow elongated ridge off the coast. The
overall effect is to allow any moisture streaming through the
baroclinicity of the offshore trof and over the top of the the
remaining weak ridging in the area to sag southeast and pass over
Eastern Washington and North Idaho Thanksgiving day and night so
pops remain high with gusty brisk winds and snow levels that are
high enough to with valley rain and mountain snow wording...indeed
higher mountains will get snow and accumulate but the lodge level
elevations from about 4000 ft MSL and below will see mostly rain.
This moisture stream continues slow sag into Friday night but
current models are slower with this progression and not bringing
in the cold air from the north down as fast. This is an important
change so I adjusted the forecast for Friday and Friday night by
warming the temperatures and raising the snow levels and held off
on the shift to northerly winds until much later Friday night.
/Pelatti

Saturday through Monday: The zonal flow pattern will slowly
transition to a southern flow as a Low approaches the Oregon
coast and bring moist and warm air into the region. With the
temperatures expected to be near freezing this is expected to
bring snow to the mountains of the region and rain/snow mix to
the Basin and lower elevations. With more model runs, the type of
precip will become clearer. Returning travel from the Holiday
could be impacted especially in the mountain passes. Temperatures
will range from the mid 30s to low 20s during this period. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Low stratus of fog will be a good bet at Spokane and
Coeur D`Alene around sunrise. The satellite fog channel shows the
valleys north of the city filled with fog and a bit of low clouds
or fog south of town. Light south winds should push this low
stratus south of KGEG, KSFF and KCOE into these terminals. It is
tough to tell if this ragged low cloud is hugging the ground of a
few hundred feet above ground level. Some amendments will be
likely this morning. The NAM and GFS forecast the development of
precipitation between 0z-06z with rain the predominant
precipitation type at Spokane, Coeur D`Alene, Pullman and
Lewiston. It looks like snow for Sandpoint and Bonners Ferry.
/GKoch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  35  40  38  47  33 /  10  60  70  60  50  30
Coeur d`Alene  38  35  40  37  45  32 /  10  90  90  70  60  40
Pullman        42  38  48  45  50  35 /  10  70  80  60  30  30
Lewiston       49  40  52  46  54  38 /  10  70  80  30  20  20
Colville       37  32  39  34  42  28 /  20  70  70  70  50  40
Sandpoint      35  33  38  34  41  28 /  30 100  90  80  80  60
Kellogg        36  33  38  37  40  32 /  10 100 100 100  70  60
Moses Lake     41  35  46  40  52  34 /   0  10  20  10  20  10
Wenatchee      43  36  45  40  49  33 /  10  10  20  20  30  20
Omak           34  32  38  35  43  30 /  10  20  60  60  50  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Tuesday evening for
     Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Tuesday evening for
     Northeast Mountains.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 241105
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
305 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather today will be relatively chilly and quiet prior to the
arrival of a wet storm system tonight. Rain and mountain snow is
expected to develop this evening. Tonight, Tuesday and Tuesday
night will be rainy with the Idaho Panhandle and the Cascades
receiving a couple inches of rain by Wednesday. A breezy and wet
but warm Thanksgiving Day will give way to a colder weather
pattern for the holiday weekend with the mountains receiving
several rounds of snow. Snow levels will fall to valley floors by
the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today: For today, our attention will be on the potential for fog
development this morning. Satellite and web cameras show areas of
thick fog in the valleys north of Spokane around Colville, Priest
Lake, Cusick, and Lincoln. Winds have diminished overnight over
the West Plains, Spokane area, and Coeur D`Alene. There is a good
chance of fog development around sunrise in these locations. By
this afternoon, a low pressure system making landfall in southern
British Columbia will spread warm frontal precipitation into the
northern Cascades and the mountains along the Canadian border.
Precipitation will be in the form of snow this afternoon in these
areas.

Tonight through Tuesday: Precipitation is expected to blossom
quickly this evening over the Idaho Panhandle and eastern third of
Washington. Strong low level warm advection will likely lead to
precipitation falling in the form of rain or rain/snow mix in
Spokane, Coeur D`Alene and Pullman with no accumulation. The
valleys north of the metro will be a tough call as snow levels
will be rising through the night. At this time it looks like
Sandpoint, Bonners Ferry, Priest Lake, and Metaline Falls will
have a good shot at receiving 1 to 3 inches of wet accumulation
before snow transitions to rain on early Tuesday morning. At this
time, much of the Silver Valley looks to be too warm for
accumulating snow. A Winter Storm Watch will be issued for the
mountains of far north Idaho and northeast Washington above 4000
feet. Snow levels will make or break this event. It is possible
that warm advection could push snow levels high enough that all
but the highest peaks transition to rain Tuesday and Tuesday
night.

Of additional concern will be the rain amounts anticipated over
the Palouse, Shoshone County and the headwaters of the Stehekin
River. Thirty-six hour rainfall totals from the NAM and GFS
suggest 1 to 2 inches of precipitation, mostly in the form of rain
over the headwaters of the Palouse River. The combination of
rainfall and melting snow Tuesday into Wednesday raises our
concern for the creeks ad streams feeding the Palouse River
including Paradise Creek at Moscow. High snow levels over the
Cascades and two-day rain totals in the 2 to 3 inch range over the
Crest will also raise our concerns for the Stehekin River and some
of the tributaries feeding the Wenatchee River. We will be
coordinating the forecasts with the River Forecast Center this
morning to assess the potential for river statement or watches.
/GKoch

Wednesday through Friday night: Narrow elongated ridging off the
coast and the jet stream draped across it and just to the north in
Canada along with no cold air in valleys and lowlands to overrun
is how this interval of time should start off. Any disturbances
that ride along the periphery of the ridge are expected to remain
fairly close to the Northern British Columbia Border but have some
potential to penetrate further to the southeast over North Idaho
as the flow becomes more from the Northwest there. By Thursday
there is more digging into west side of the ridge off the coast
which allows this pattern to remain in place through Wednesday
night. At about Thanksgiving and beyond there is more uncertainty
due to the complexity of the meteorological setup with the
expectation that the Jet stream may be directly overhead parts of
Eastern Washington and North Idaho aligned southwest to northeast.
This is due to the earlier mentioned digging, deepening, and
intensification of the cold trof off the coast which deamplifies
the earlier mentioned Narrow elongated ridge off the coast. The
overall effect is to allow any moisture streaming through the
baroclinicity of the offshore trof and over the top of the the
remaining weak ridging in the area to sag southeast and pass over
Eastern Washington and North Idaho Thanksgiving day and night so
pops remain high with gusty brisk winds and snow levels that are
high enough to with valley rain and mountain snow wording...indeed
higher mountains will get snow and accumulate but the lodge level
elevations from about 4000 ft MSL and below will see mostly rain.
This moisture stream continues slow sag into Friday night but
current models are slower with this progression and not bringing
in the cold air from the north down as fast. This is an important
change so I adjusted the forecast for Friday and Friday night by
warming the temperatures and raising the snow levels and held off
on the shift to northerly winds until much later Friday night.
/Pelatti

Saturday through Monday: The zonal flow pattern will slowly
transition to a southern flow as a Low approaches the Oregon
coast and bring moist and warm air into the region. With the
temperatures expected to be near freezing this is expected to
bring snow to the mountains of the region and rain/snow mix to
the Basin and lower elevations. With more model runs, the type of
precip will become clearer. Returning travel from the Holiday
could be impacted especially in the mountain passes. Temperatures
will range from the mid 30s to low 20s during this period. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The cold front has passed to the east of the region.
This has left a moist boundary layer in its wake across extreme
eastern WA and in the ID Panhandle. Satellite imagery shows an
expanding area of fog and stratus across the Northeast Mtns and in
the ID Panhandle. This is will begin to nudge into KCOE, KSFF,
KGEG and KPUW through the rest of tonight with MVFR/IFR cigs and
vis possible through Monday morning. Another Pacific weather
system will begin to push in over the region Monday afternoon and
evening. A little bit of mixing ahead of this system will result
in improving flight conditions through the afternoon with an
increasing threat for precipitation in the evening. /SVH



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  35  40  38  47  33 /  10  60  70  60  50  30
Coeur d`Alene  38  35  40  37  45  32 /  10  90  90  70  60  40
Pullman        42  38  48  45  50  35 /  10  70  80  60  30  30
Lewiston       49  40  52  46  54  38 /  10  70  80  30  20  20
Colville       37  32  39  34  42  28 /  20  70  70  70  50  40
Sandpoint      35  33  38  34  41  28 /  30 100  90  80  80  60
Kellogg        36  33  38  37  40  32 /  10 100 100 100  70  60
Moses Lake     41  35  46  40  52  34 /   0  10  20  10  20  10
Wenatchee      43  36  45  40  49  33 /  10  10  20  20  30  20
Omak           34  32  38  35  43  30 /  10  20  60  60  50  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 241105
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
305 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather today will be relatively chilly and quiet prior to the
arrival of a wet storm system tonight. Rain and mountain snow is
expected to develop this evening. Tonight, Tuesday and Tuesday
night will be rainy with the Idaho Panhandle and the Cascades
receiving a couple inches of rain by Wednesday. A breezy and wet
but warm Thanksgiving Day will give way to a colder weather
pattern for the holiday weekend with the mountains receiving
several rounds of snow. Snow levels will fall to valley floors by
the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today: For today, our attention will be on the potential for fog
development this morning. Satellite and web cameras show areas of
thick fog in the valleys north of Spokane around Colville, Priest
Lake, Cusick, and Lincoln. Winds have diminished overnight over
the West Plains, Spokane area, and Coeur D`Alene. There is a good
chance of fog development around sunrise in these locations. By
this afternoon, a low pressure system making landfall in southern
British Columbia will spread warm frontal precipitation into the
northern Cascades and the mountains along the Canadian border.
Precipitation will be in the form of snow this afternoon in these
areas.

Tonight through Tuesday: Precipitation is expected to blossom
quickly this evening over the Idaho Panhandle and eastern third of
Washington. Strong low level warm advection will likely lead to
precipitation falling in the form of rain or rain/snow mix in
Spokane, Coeur D`Alene and Pullman with no accumulation. The
valleys north of the metro will be a tough call as snow levels
will be rising through the night. At this time it looks like
Sandpoint, Bonners Ferry, Priest Lake, and Metaline Falls will
have a good shot at receiving 1 to 3 inches of wet accumulation
before snow transitions to rain on early Tuesday morning. At this
time, much of the Silver Valley looks to be too warm for
accumulating snow. A Winter Storm Watch will be issued for the
mountains of far north Idaho and northeast Washington above 4000
feet. Snow levels will make or break this event. It is possible
that warm advection could push snow levels high enough that all
but the highest peaks transition to rain Tuesday and Tuesday
night.

Of additional concern will be the rain amounts anticipated over
the Palouse, Shoshone County and the headwaters of the Stehekin
River. Thirty-six hour rainfall totals from the NAM and GFS
suggest 1 to 2 inches of precipitation, mostly in the form of rain
over the headwaters of the Palouse River. The combination of
rainfall and melting snow Tuesday into Wednesday raises our
concern for the creeks ad streams feeding the Palouse River
including Paradise Creek at Moscow. High snow levels over the
Cascades and two-day rain totals in the 2 to 3 inch range over the
Crest will also raise our concerns for the Stehekin River and some
of the tributaries feeding the Wenatchee River. We will be
coordinating the forecasts with the River Forecast Center this
morning to assess the potential for river statement or watches.
/GKoch

Wednesday through Friday night: Narrow elongated ridging off the
coast and the jet stream draped across it and just to the north in
Canada along with no cold air in valleys and lowlands to overrun
is how this interval of time should start off. Any disturbances
that ride along the periphery of the ridge are expected to remain
fairly close to the Northern British Columbia Border but have some
potential to penetrate further to the southeast over North Idaho
as the flow becomes more from the Northwest there. By Thursday
there is more digging into west side of the ridge off the coast
which allows this pattern to remain in place through Wednesday
night. At about Thanksgiving and beyond there is more uncertainty
due to the complexity of the meteorological setup with the
expectation that the Jet stream may be directly overhead parts of
Eastern Washington and North Idaho aligned southwest to northeast.
This is due to the earlier mentioned digging, deepening, and
intensification of the cold trof off the coast which deamplifies
the earlier mentioned Narrow elongated ridge off the coast. The
overall effect is to allow any moisture streaming through the
baroclinicity of the offshore trof and over the top of the the
remaining weak ridging in the area to sag southeast and pass over
Eastern Washington and North Idaho Thanksgiving day and night so
pops remain high with gusty brisk winds and snow levels that are
high enough to with valley rain and mountain snow wording...indeed
higher mountains will get snow and accumulate but the lodge level
elevations from about 4000 ft MSL and below will see mostly rain.
This moisture stream continues slow sag into Friday night but
current models are slower with this progression and not bringing
in the cold air from the north down as fast. This is an important
change so I adjusted the forecast for Friday and Friday night by
warming the temperatures and raising the snow levels and held off
on the shift to northerly winds until much later Friday night.
/Pelatti

Saturday through Monday: The zonal flow pattern will slowly
transition to a southern flow as a Low approaches the Oregon
coast and bring moist and warm air into the region. With the
temperatures expected to be near freezing this is expected to
bring snow to the mountains of the region and rain/snow mix to
the Basin and lower elevations. With more model runs, the type of
precip will become clearer. Returning travel from the Holiday
could be impacted especially in the mountain passes. Temperatures
will range from the mid 30s to low 20s during this period. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The cold front has passed to the east of the region.
This has left a moist boundary layer in its wake across extreme
eastern WA and in the ID Panhandle. Satellite imagery shows an
expanding area of fog and stratus across the Northeast Mtns and in
the ID Panhandle. This is will begin to nudge into KCOE, KSFF,
KGEG and KPUW through the rest of tonight with MVFR/IFR cigs and
vis possible through Monday morning. Another Pacific weather
system will begin to push in over the region Monday afternoon and
evening. A little bit of mixing ahead of this system will result
in improving flight conditions through the afternoon with an
increasing threat for precipitation in the evening. /SVH



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  35  40  38  47  33 /  10  60  70  60  50  30
Coeur d`Alene  38  35  40  37  45  32 /  10  90  90  70  60  40
Pullman        42  38  48  45  50  35 /  10  70  80  60  30  30
Lewiston       49  40  52  46  54  38 /  10  70  80  30  20  20
Colville       37  32  39  34  42  28 /  20  70  70  70  50  40
Sandpoint      35  33  38  34  41  28 /  30 100  90  80  80  60
Kellogg        36  33  38  37  40  32 /  10 100 100 100  70  60
Moses Lake     41  35  46  40  52  34 /   0  10  20  10  20  10
Wenatchee      43  36  45  40  49  33 /  10  10  20  20  30  20
Omak           34  32  38  35  43  30 /  10  20  60  60  50  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 241057
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT MOVING
THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINY AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEATHER...ALONG WITH
MILD TEMPERATURES...WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THANKSGIVING SHOULD BE WET TOO...AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES
THROUGH. COOLER BUT DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A DIRTY UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 130W
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON. HIGH CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT...BUT FOR THE TIME BEING
THERE IS LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES FELL INTO THE MID
30S TO MID 40S OVERNIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG IN THE USUAL SPOTS OF THE
SOUTH PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AHEAD OF THE STRONG
WARM FRONT THAT IS MAKING ITS WAY OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE. RAIN WILL START AT THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING
AND SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THE
WARM FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TONIGHT...AND MOIST WARM STRONGLY
BAROCLINIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OR EVEN
WEDNESDAY. THE BAND OF MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS AGREE WELL ON THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN...SHOWING LOTS OF
PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WITH
THE SNOW LEVEL MAINLY 6500 TO 7500 FT. THEY DIFFER ON WHERE AND WHEN
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WE CAN SAY WITH CONFIDENCE
THAT 3 TO 6 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ALONG THE WEST SLOPES
OF THE CASCADES DURING THE 48 HOUR PERIOD FROM MIDDAY TODAY THROUGH
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THE PORTION OF THE CASCADES FROM AROUND STEVENS
PASS SOUTHWARD WILL PROBABLY HAVE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
INITIALLY...WITH THE FOCUS MOVING NORTHWARD STARTING LATE TUESDAY.
SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE ON THIS.

THE OLYMPICS SHOULD GET LESS PRECIPITATION IN THIS PATTERN --
SOMETHING LIKE 2 TO 3.5 INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES SHOULD BE
COMMON ACROSS THE WESTERN WASHINGTON LOWLANDS. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY AT TIMES...MAINLY AT THE COAST AND IN THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.   MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON THANKSGIVING AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION
TAPERING OFF IN ITS WAKE ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION WITH THAT FEATURE
WILL BE FAIRLY DECENT TOO. IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
AND LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW COURTESY OF A SURFACE HIGH IN SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA.   MCDONNAL

&&

.HYDROLOGY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES DURING THE 48 HOURS
FROM MIDDAY TODAY THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE
TO AROUND 6500 FT TONIGHT AS THE STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...
AND REMAIN IN THE 6500 TO 7500 FT RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS PATTERN OF STRONG MOIST WESTERLY FLOW JUST DOWNSTREAM OF A FLAT
UPPER RIDGE IS ONE OF THE CLASSIC FLOOD-PRODUCING PATTERNS FOR
WESTERN WASHINGTON...ESPECIALLY FOR THE RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. THIS EPISODE LOOKS SIMILAR TO -- BUT MUCH
LESS SEVERE THAN -- THE PATTERN THAT PRODUCED THE FLOODS OF LATE
NOVEMBER 1990 AND LATE NOVEMBER 1995.

THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED ARE HEAVY BUT NOT EXTREME...WHICH
MEANS THAT THE FLOOD THREAT WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO THE MOST
FLOOD-PRONE RIVERS THAT FLOW OFF THE CASCADES. THAT GENERALLY
INCLUDES THE COWLITZ...PUYALLUP NEAR ORTING...SNOQUALMIE...TOLT...
SKYKOMISH...SNOHOMISH...STILLAGUAMISH...AND NOOKSACK RIVERS. THE
RIVERS OF THE OLYMPICS ARE NOT LIKELY TO FLOOD IN THIS SCENARIO...
BUT IT DOES NOT SEEM SMART TO RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY ON THE
UNIQUELY FLOOD-PRONE SKOKOMISH RIVER.

IF FLOODING OCCURS...IT WOULD PROBABLY BE MINOR. HOWEVER...THE
FLOODING COULD BECOME WORSE IF THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS
FIXED OVER A PARTICULAR PART OF THE CASCADES FOR MOST OF THE EVENT.
THERE IS TOO MUCH INCONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO KNOW THOSE
DETAILS AT THIS TIME.

WE HAVE DECIDED TO UPDATE THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR NOW...RATHER
THAN GOING TO A FLOOD WATCH. THE DAY SHIFT SHOULD BE IN A BETTER
POSITION TO PIN DOWN A FLOOD WATCH LATER TODAY...AFTER THE 12Z SUITE
OF MODEL QPF IS IN AND THE NORTHWEST RIVER FORECAST CENTER HAS RUN
THE HYDROLOGIC MODEL.   MCDONNAL

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT
FROM THE NW COAST OF CALIFORNIA INTO THE PACIFIC WILL LIFT INTO THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN BECOME STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF WA TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IS STABLE AND WILL
SEE INCREASING MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR FROM ABOUT KSEA NORTHWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING. SOUTH OF KSEA IN THE INTERIOR...AN AREA OF STRATUS WITH
BASES AROUND FL 010 AND VIS 1-3 SM BR HAS DEVELOPED. THE LOW CLOUDS
AND MIST WILL MIX OUT 16Z-18Z AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
LOWER TO AROUND FL030 MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON THEN TO 010-015 LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS PRECIPITATION INCREASES FROM THE
SW. ALBRECHT

KSEA...STRATUS AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN S OF THE TERMINAL. EXPECT SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY
LOWER TO AROUND 030 AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON AND ABOUT 015 AROUND 00Z
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SE WIND 5-8 KT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
S15G25 KT 21Z THIS AFTN. WIND AT FL 050 WILL INCREASE TO SW 35 KT
THIS AFTERNOON AND W 45 KT LATE THIS EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...SE TO S WIND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING
AS A WARM FRONT THAT SITS FROM THE NW CALIFORNIA COAST TO AROUND 46N
140W LIFTS NWD TOWARD THE WATERS. THE WARM FRONT WILL REACH THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE WATERS THIS EVENING THEN WILL BECOME
STATIONARY TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUE. THE WARM FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED
TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STRONG S-SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT CAN BE EXPECTED TO THE S OF
THE WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS NWD.

THE FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO DROP BACK
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRI AS A COLD HIGH PRES SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE INTERIOR OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. BY LATER FRI INTO THE WEEKEND
EXPECT STRONG NELY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS WITH FRASER
OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.

HAZARDOUS SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THIS MORNING
AND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 241057
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT MOVING
THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINY AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEATHER...ALONG WITH
MILD TEMPERATURES...WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THANKSGIVING SHOULD BE WET TOO...AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES
THROUGH. COOLER BUT DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A DIRTY UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 130W
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON. HIGH CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT...BUT FOR THE TIME BEING
THERE IS LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES FELL INTO THE MID
30S TO MID 40S OVERNIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG IN THE USUAL SPOTS OF THE
SOUTH PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AHEAD OF THE STRONG
WARM FRONT THAT IS MAKING ITS WAY OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE. RAIN WILL START AT THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING
AND SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THE
WARM FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TONIGHT...AND MOIST WARM STRONGLY
BAROCLINIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OR EVEN
WEDNESDAY. THE BAND OF MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS AGREE WELL ON THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN...SHOWING LOTS OF
PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WITH
THE SNOW LEVEL MAINLY 6500 TO 7500 FT. THEY DIFFER ON WHERE AND WHEN
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WE CAN SAY WITH CONFIDENCE
THAT 3 TO 6 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ALONG THE WEST SLOPES
OF THE CASCADES DURING THE 48 HOUR PERIOD FROM MIDDAY TODAY THROUGH
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THE PORTION OF THE CASCADES FROM AROUND STEVENS
PASS SOUTHWARD WILL PROBABLY HAVE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
INITIALLY...WITH THE FOCUS MOVING NORTHWARD STARTING LATE TUESDAY.
SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE ON THIS.

THE OLYMPICS SHOULD GET LESS PRECIPITATION IN THIS PATTERN --
SOMETHING LIKE 2 TO 3.5 INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES SHOULD BE
COMMON ACROSS THE WESTERN WASHINGTON LOWLANDS. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY AT TIMES...MAINLY AT THE COAST AND IN THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.   MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON THANKSGIVING AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION
TAPERING OFF IN ITS WAKE ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION WITH THAT FEATURE
WILL BE FAIRLY DECENT TOO. IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
AND LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW COURTESY OF A SURFACE HIGH IN SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA.   MCDONNAL

&&

.HYDROLOGY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES DURING THE 48 HOURS
FROM MIDDAY TODAY THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE
TO AROUND 6500 FT TONIGHT AS THE STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...
AND REMAIN IN THE 6500 TO 7500 FT RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS PATTERN OF STRONG MOIST WESTERLY FLOW JUST DOWNSTREAM OF A FLAT
UPPER RIDGE IS ONE OF THE CLASSIC FLOOD-PRODUCING PATTERNS FOR
WESTERN WASHINGTON...ESPECIALLY FOR THE RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. THIS EPISODE LOOKS SIMILAR TO -- BUT MUCH
LESS SEVERE THAN -- THE PATTERN THAT PRODUCED THE FLOODS OF LATE
NOVEMBER 1990 AND LATE NOVEMBER 1995.

THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED ARE HEAVY BUT NOT EXTREME...WHICH
MEANS THAT THE FLOOD THREAT WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO THE MOST
FLOOD-PRONE RIVERS THAT FLOW OFF THE CASCADES. THAT GENERALLY
INCLUDES THE COWLITZ...PUYALLUP NEAR ORTING...SNOQUALMIE...TOLT...
SKYKOMISH...SNOHOMISH...STILLAGUAMISH...AND NOOKSACK RIVERS. THE
RIVERS OF THE OLYMPICS ARE NOT LIKELY TO FLOOD IN THIS SCENARIO...
BUT IT DOES NOT SEEM SMART TO RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY ON THE
UNIQUELY FLOOD-PRONE SKOKOMISH RIVER.

IF FLOODING OCCURS...IT WOULD PROBABLY BE MINOR. HOWEVER...THE
FLOODING COULD BECOME WORSE IF THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS
FIXED OVER A PARTICULAR PART OF THE CASCADES FOR MOST OF THE EVENT.
THERE IS TOO MUCH INCONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO KNOW THOSE
DETAILS AT THIS TIME.

WE HAVE DECIDED TO UPDATE THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR NOW...RATHER
THAN GOING TO A FLOOD WATCH. THE DAY SHIFT SHOULD BE IN A BETTER
POSITION TO PIN DOWN A FLOOD WATCH LATER TODAY...AFTER THE 12Z SUITE
OF MODEL QPF IS IN AND THE NORTHWEST RIVER FORECAST CENTER HAS RUN
THE HYDROLOGIC MODEL.   MCDONNAL

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT
FROM THE NW COAST OF CALIFORNIA INTO THE PACIFIC WILL LIFT INTO THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN BECOME STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF WA TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IS STABLE AND WILL
SEE INCREASING MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR FROM ABOUT KSEA NORTHWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING. SOUTH OF KSEA IN THE INTERIOR...AN AREA OF STRATUS WITH
BASES AROUND FL 010 AND VIS 1-3 SM BR HAS DEVELOPED. THE LOW CLOUDS
AND MIST WILL MIX OUT 16Z-18Z AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
LOWER TO AROUND FL030 MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON THEN TO 010-015 LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS PRECIPITATION INCREASES FROM THE
SW. ALBRECHT

KSEA...STRATUS AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN S OF THE TERMINAL. EXPECT SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY
LOWER TO AROUND 030 AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON AND ABOUT 015 AROUND 00Z
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SE WIND 5-8 KT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
S15G25 KT 21Z THIS AFTN. WIND AT FL 050 WILL INCREASE TO SW 35 KT
THIS AFTERNOON AND W 45 KT LATE THIS EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...SE TO S WIND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING
AS A WARM FRONT THAT SITS FROM THE NW CALIFORNIA COAST TO AROUND 46N
140W LIFTS NWD TOWARD THE WATERS. THE WARM FRONT WILL REACH THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE WATERS THIS EVENING THEN WILL BECOME
STATIONARY TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUE. THE WARM FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED
TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STRONG S-SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT CAN BE EXPECTED TO THE S OF
THE WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS NWD.

THE FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO DROP BACK
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRI AS A COLD HIGH PRES SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE INTERIOR OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. BY LATER FRI INTO THE WEEKEND
EXPECT STRONG NELY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS WITH FRASER
OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.

HAZARDOUS SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THIS MORNING
AND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KPQR 241054
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
254 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION HAS
DISSIPATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THIS
MORNING...BUT A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE RAIN WITH RISING
SNOW LEVELS TO THE DISTRICT BY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
LIKELY RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT TUESDAY...BRINGING MORE RAIN TO
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WHILE THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY
DRY OUT. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THANKSGIVING DAY FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL SHOWERS HAVE
DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL COAST AND COAST RANGE AS SEEN ON KRTX RADAR
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS AND LOCALLY ALONG THE COAST. STILL NOT
EXPECTING FOG TO BECOME DENSE...BUT SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS OF DENSE FOG
ARE MORE LIKELY. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BURN OFF BY 10-11AM
PST THIS MORNING...DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS MAY PRODUCE A BIT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

ANOTHER VORTMAX IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING... WITH THE 06Z GFS AND NAM SHOWING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
QPF OVER SW WASHINGTON AS IT TAPS INTO A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER.
HAVE UPPED QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES IN
PARTICULAR...WITH 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE
RISEN ABOVE 6000 FT BY THAT POINT.

BY THEN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE DOMINANT SALEM SOUTHWARD...
WITH SOME FOG FORMING TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING IN THE VALLEYS. DESPITE
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS ALOFT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS UPWARDS OF
+10 DEG C WED...THE VALLEYS WILL LIKELY BE STUCK IN A BIT OF AN
INVERSION THUS LIMITING TEMPS SOMEWHAT. MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR WED
AFTERNOON WILL BE TRICKY AS A RESULT. IT DOES APPEAR WED WILL BE DRY
FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT AS UPPER RIDGING TAKES CHARGE.

MODELS ARE COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXPECTED FOR EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL REACH THE
COAST BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY...PUSHING INLAND THROUGH NOON
THANKSGIVING DAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WEAGLE/27

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY..LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THANKSGIVING DAY AS A PACIFIC
FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND
DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY TAKE THE DEPARTING FRONTS PLACE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS FURTHER INTO CANADA.
MODELS ARE HINTING ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN
OREGON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CASCADES
AND LOW PRESSURE SETTING UP JUST OFF THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA COAST.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP...BRINGING BREEZY EAST WINDS THROUGH THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. /27

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING ARE KEEPING AREAS MVFR
WILL OCCASIONAL IFR THIS MORNING. WIND IS KEEPING KEUG AND KSLE VFR
LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THIS WIND MAY
PUSH NORTHWARD WITH TIME THIS MORNING...WHICH COULD CLEAR OUT THE
LOW-LEVEL STRATUS. THIS COULD LIFT CIGS AND VISIBILITY TO VFR
ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY BY 18-21Z. COASTAL SITES ARE
REMAINING VFR CURRENTLY...THOUGH CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOG TO
DEVELOP SOON. EXPECT THESE SITES TO DEVELOP MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AND LIKELY WILL NOT CLEAR
UNTIL WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 15-18Z.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AROUND
00Z...WHICH COULD BRING CIGS AND VISIBILITY DOWN TO MVFR THIS
EVENING WITH RAIN.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LOW STRATUS KEEPING CIGS MVFR THIS MORNING.
LOW STRATUS LOOKS TO CLEAR OUT AROUND 16-18Z THIS MORNING BEFORE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL LIKELY BRING
CIGS BACK DOWN TO MVFR THIS EVENING AROUND 00Z. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY...BRINGING
SOUTHERLY WINDS BACK ABOVE 20 KT GUSTING TO 30 KT LATER THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE AND
WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY. SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 FT
TODAY...ONLY DROPPING BELOW 10 FT EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH OUR WATERS ON
TUESDAY...WHICH COULD BRING WINDS AND SEAS BACK UP TO SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. AS OF NOW...THIS LOOKS TO MAINLY IMPACT OUR NORTHERN
WATERS...THOUGH SOUTHERN WATERS LOOK TO GET CLOSE TO 10 FT SEAS. SEAS
DROP BACK BELOW 10 FT ON WEDNESDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BRINGS
ANOTHER FRONT IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY WHICH AS OF NOW LOOKS TO
AGAIN INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. -MCCOY


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
     PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
    FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 AM
    PST TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 241054
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
254 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION HAS
DISSIPATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THIS
MORNING...BUT A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE RAIN WITH RISING
SNOW LEVELS TO THE DISTRICT BY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
LIKELY RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT TUESDAY...BRINGING MORE RAIN TO
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WHILE THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY
DRY OUT. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THANKSGIVING DAY FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL SHOWERS HAVE
DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL COAST AND COAST RANGE AS SEEN ON KRTX RADAR
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS AND LOCALLY ALONG THE COAST. STILL NOT
EXPECTING FOG TO BECOME DENSE...BUT SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS OF DENSE FOG
ARE MORE LIKELY. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BURN OFF BY 10-11AM
PST THIS MORNING...DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS MAY PRODUCE A BIT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

ANOTHER VORTMAX IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING... WITH THE 06Z GFS AND NAM SHOWING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
QPF OVER SW WASHINGTON AS IT TAPS INTO A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER.
HAVE UPPED QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES IN
PARTICULAR...WITH 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE
RISEN ABOVE 6000 FT BY THAT POINT.

BY THEN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE DOMINANT SALEM SOUTHWARD...
WITH SOME FOG FORMING TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING IN THE VALLEYS. DESPITE
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS ALOFT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS UPWARDS OF
+10 DEG C WED...THE VALLEYS WILL LIKELY BE STUCK IN A BIT OF AN
INVERSION THUS LIMITING TEMPS SOMEWHAT. MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR WED
AFTERNOON WILL BE TRICKY AS A RESULT. IT DOES APPEAR WED WILL BE DRY
FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT AS UPPER RIDGING TAKES CHARGE.

MODELS ARE COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXPECTED FOR EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL REACH THE
COAST BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY...PUSHING INLAND THROUGH NOON
THANKSGIVING DAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WEAGLE/27

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY..LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THANKSGIVING DAY AS A PACIFIC
FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND
DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY TAKE THE DEPARTING FRONTS PLACE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS FURTHER INTO CANADA.
MODELS ARE HINTING ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN
OREGON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CASCADES
AND LOW PRESSURE SETTING UP JUST OFF THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA COAST.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP...BRINGING BREEZY EAST WINDS THROUGH THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. /27

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING ARE KEEPING AREAS MVFR
WILL OCCASIONAL IFR THIS MORNING. WIND IS KEEPING KEUG AND KSLE VFR
LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THIS WIND MAY
PUSH NORTHWARD WITH TIME THIS MORNING...WHICH COULD CLEAR OUT THE
LOW-LEVEL STRATUS. THIS COULD LIFT CIGS AND VISIBILITY TO VFR
ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY BY 18-21Z. COASTAL SITES ARE
REMAINING VFR CURRENTLY...THOUGH CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOG TO
DEVELOP SOON. EXPECT THESE SITES TO DEVELOP MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AND LIKELY WILL NOT CLEAR
UNTIL WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 15-18Z.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AROUND
00Z...WHICH COULD BRING CIGS AND VISIBILITY DOWN TO MVFR THIS
EVENING WITH RAIN.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LOW STRATUS KEEPING CIGS MVFR THIS MORNING.
LOW STRATUS LOOKS TO CLEAR OUT AROUND 16-18Z THIS MORNING BEFORE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL LIKELY BRING
CIGS BACK DOWN TO MVFR THIS EVENING AROUND 00Z. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY...BRINGING
SOUTHERLY WINDS BACK ABOVE 20 KT GUSTING TO 30 KT LATER THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE AND
WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY. SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 FT
TODAY...ONLY DROPPING BELOW 10 FT EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH OUR WATERS ON
TUESDAY...WHICH COULD BRING WINDS AND SEAS BACK UP TO SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. AS OF NOW...THIS LOOKS TO MAINLY IMPACT OUR NORTHERN
WATERS...THOUGH SOUTHERN WATERS LOOK TO GET CLOSE TO 10 FT SEAS. SEAS
DROP BACK BELOW 10 FT ON WEDNESDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BRINGS
ANOTHER FRONT IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY WHICH AS OF NOW LOOKS TO
AGAIN INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. -MCCOY


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
     PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
    FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 AM
    PST TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 241054
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
254 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION HAS
DISSIPATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THIS
MORNING...BUT A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE RAIN WITH RISING
SNOW LEVELS TO THE DISTRICT BY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
LIKELY RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT TUESDAY...BRINGING MORE RAIN TO
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WHILE THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY
DRY OUT. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THANKSGIVING DAY FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL SHOWERS HAVE
DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL COAST AND COAST RANGE AS SEEN ON KRTX RADAR
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS AND LOCALLY ALONG THE COAST. STILL NOT
EXPECTING FOG TO BECOME DENSE...BUT SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS OF DENSE FOG
ARE MORE LIKELY. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BURN OFF BY 10-11AM
PST THIS MORNING...DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS MAY PRODUCE A BIT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

ANOTHER VORTMAX IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING... WITH THE 06Z GFS AND NAM SHOWING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
QPF OVER SW WASHINGTON AS IT TAPS INTO A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER.
HAVE UPPED QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES IN
PARTICULAR...WITH 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE
RISEN ABOVE 6000 FT BY THAT POINT.

BY THEN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE DOMINANT SALEM SOUTHWARD...
WITH SOME FOG FORMING TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING IN THE VALLEYS. DESPITE
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS ALOFT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS UPWARDS OF
+10 DEG C WED...THE VALLEYS WILL LIKELY BE STUCK IN A BIT OF AN
INVERSION THUS LIMITING TEMPS SOMEWHAT. MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR WED
AFTERNOON WILL BE TRICKY AS A RESULT. IT DOES APPEAR WED WILL BE DRY
FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT AS UPPER RIDGING TAKES CHARGE.

MODELS ARE COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXPECTED FOR EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL REACH THE
COAST BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY...PUSHING INLAND THROUGH NOON
THANKSGIVING DAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WEAGLE/27

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY..LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THANKSGIVING DAY AS A PACIFIC
FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND
DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY TAKE THE DEPARTING FRONTS PLACE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS FURTHER INTO CANADA.
MODELS ARE HINTING ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN
OREGON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CASCADES
AND LOW PRESSURE SETTING UP JUST OFF THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA COAST.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP...BRINGING BREEZY EAST WINDS THROUGH THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. /27

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING ARE KEEPING AREAS MVFR
WILL OCCASIONAL IFR THIS MORNING. WIND IS KEEPING KEUG AND KSLE VFR
LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THIS WIND MAY
PUSH NORTHWARD WITH TIME THIS MORNING...WHICH COULD CLEAR OUT THE
LOW-LEVEL STRATUS. THIS COULD LIFT CIGS AND VISIBILITY TO VFR
ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY BY 18-21Z. COASTAL SITES ARE
REMAINING VFR CURRENTLY...THOUGH CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOG TO
DEVELOP SOON. EXPECT THESE SITES TO DEVELOP MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AND LIKELY WILL NOT CLEAR
UNTIL WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 15-18Z.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AROUND
00Z...WHICH COULD BRING CIGS AND VISIBILITY DOWN TO MVFR THIS
EVENING WITH RAIN.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LOW STRATUS KEEPING CIGS MVFR THIS MORNING.
LOW STRATUS LOOKS TO CLEAR OUT AROUND 16-18Z THIS MORNING BEFORE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL LIKELY BRING
CIGS BACK DOWN TO MVFR THIS EVENING AROUND 00Z. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY...BRINGING
SOUTHERLY WINDS BACK ABOVE 20 KT GUSTING TO 30 KT LATER THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE AND
WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY. SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 FT
TODAY...ONLY DROPPING BELOW 10 FT EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH OUR WATERS ON
TUESDAY...WHICH COULD BRING WINDS AND SEAS BACK UP TO SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. AS OF NOW...THIS LOOKS TO MAINLY IMPACT OUR NORTHERN
WATERS...THOUGH SOUTHERN WATERS LOOK TO GET CLOSE TO 10 FT SEAS. SEAS
DROP BACK BELOW 10 FT ON WEDNESDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BRINGS
ANOTHER FRONT IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY WHICH AS OF NOW LOOKS TO
AGAIN INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. -MCCOY


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
     PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
    FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 AM
    PST TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 241054
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
254 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION HAS
DISSIPATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THIS
MORNING...BUT A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE RAIN WITH RISING
SNOW LEVELS TO THE DISTRICT BY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
LIKELY RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT TUESDAY...BRINGING MORE RAIN TO
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WHILE THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY
DRY OUT. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THANKSGIVING DAY FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL SHOWERS HAVE
DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL COAST AND COAST RANGE AS SEEN ON KRTX RADAR
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS AND LOCALLY ALONG THE COAST. STILL NOT
EXPECTING FOG TO BECOME DENSE...BUT SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS OF DENSE FOG
ARE MORE LIKELY. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BURN OFF BY 10-11AM
PST THIS MORNING...DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS MAY PRODUCE A BIT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

ANOTHER VORTMAX IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING... WITH THE 06Z GFS AND NAM SHOWING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
QPF OVER SW WASHINGTON AS IT TAPS INTO A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER.
HAVE UPPED QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES IN
PARTICULAR...WITH 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE
RISEN ABOVE 6000 FT BY THAT POINT.

BY THEN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE DOMINANT SALEM SOUTHWARD...
WITH SOME FOG FORMING TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING IN THE VALLEYS. DESPITE
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS ALOFT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS UPWARDS OF
+10 DEG C WED...THE VALLEYS WILL LIKELY BE STUCK IN A BIT OF AN
INVERSION THUS LIMITING TEMPS SOMEWHAT. MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR WED
AFTERNOON WILL BE TRICKY AS A RESULT. IT DOES APPEAR WED WILL BE DRY
FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT AS UPPER RIDGING TAKES CHARGE.

MODELS ARE COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXPECTED FOR EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL REACH THE
COAST BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY...PUSHING INLAND THROUGH NOON
THANKSGIVING DAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WEAGLE/27

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY..LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THANKSGIVING DAY AS A PACIFIC
FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND
DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY TAKE THE DEPARTING FRONTS PLACE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS FURTHER INTO CANADA.
MODELS ARE HINTING ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN
OREGON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CASCADES
AND LOW PRESSURE SETTING UP JUST OFF THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA COAST.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP...BRINGING BREEZY EAST WINDS THROUGH THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. /27

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING ARE KEEPING AREAS MVFR
WILL OCCASIONAL IFR THIS MORNING. WIND IS KEEPING KEUG AND KSLE VFR
LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THIS WIND MAY
PUSH NORTHWARD WITH TIME THIS MORNING...WHICH COULD CLEAR OUT THE
LOW-LEVEL STRATUS. THIS COULD LIFT CIGS AND VISIBILITY TO VFR
ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY BY 18-21Z. COASTAL SITES ARE
REMAINING VFR CURRENTLY...THOUGH CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOG TO
DEVELOP SOON. EXPECT THESE SITES TO DEVELOP MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AND LIKELY WILL NOT CLEAR
UNTIL WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 15-18Z.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AROUND
00Z...WHICH COULD BRING CIGS AND VISIBILITY DOWN TO MVFR THIS
EVENING WITH RAIN.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LOW STRATUS KEEPING CIGS MVFR THIS MORNING.
LOW STRATUS LOOKS TO CLEAR OUT AROUND 16-18Z THIS MORNING BEFORE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL LIKELY BRING
CIGS BACK DOWN TO MVFR THIS EVENING AROUND 00Z. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY...BRINGING
SOUTHERLY WINDS BACK ABOVE 20 KT GUSTING TO 30 KT LATER THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE AND
WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY. SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 FT
TODAY...ONLY DROPPING BELOW 10 FT EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH OUR WATERS ON
TUESDAY...WHICH COULD BRING WINDS AND SEAS BACK UP TO SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. AS OF NOW...THIS LOOKS TO MAINLY IMPACT OUR NORTHERN
WATERS...THOUGH SOUTHERN WATERS LOOK TO GET CLOSE TO 10 FT SEAS. SEAS
DROP BACK BELOW 10 FT ON WEDNESDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BRINGS
ANOTHER FRONT IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY WHICH AS OF NOW LOOKS TO
AGAIN INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. -MCCOY


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
     PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
    FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 AM
    PST TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 240636
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1036 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The north Idaho mountains will continue to receive snow this
evening, along with the Cascade crest near Stevens Pass. The
breezy winds will taper off overnight, and Monday will be a
relatively quiet and chilly day. More rain and heavy mountain snow
is expected Monday night into Tuesday. A breezy and wet but warm
Thanksgiving Day will give way to a colder weather pattern for the
holiday weekend with the mountains receiving several rounds of
snow. Snow levels will fall to valley floors by the weekend.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
The Winter Weather Advisory has been cancelled for the Central
Panhandle Mountains as only some isolated snow showers are
expected through Monday morning. The snow from earlier this
evening and in the afternoon has compacted and formed some ice
over Lookout Pass. This will continue to create some slick
conditions for any travelers through at least Monday morning. /SVH


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The cold front has passed to the east of the region.
This has left a moist boundary layer in its wake across extreme
eastern WA and in the ID Panhandle. Satellite imagery shows an
expanding area of fog and stratus across the Northeast Mtns and in
the ID Panhandle. This is will begin to nudge into KCOE, KSFF,
KGEG and KPUW through the rest of tonight with MVFR/IFR cigs and
vis possible through Monday morning. Another Pacific weather
system will begin to push in over the region Monday afternoon and
evening. A little bit of mixing ahead of this system will result
in improving flight conditions through the afternoon with an
increasing threat for precipitation in the evening. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        27  37  33  42  39  47 /   0  10  50  60  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  28  38  34  40  40  45 /  10  10  60  80  60  70
Pullman        30  41  37  47  44  50 /  10  10  60  90  50  30
Lewiston       34  47  40  52  46  54 /  10  10  60  60  30  20
Colville       23  36  31  39  36  42 /   0  10  50  70  70  50
Sandpoint      28  36  31  38  36  41 /  10  10  70  80  80  80
Kellogg        28  36  33  37  37  40 /  20  10  80  90  80  70
Moses Lake     25  41  33  46  41  52 /   0   0  20  30  10  20
Wenatchee      31  40  35  44  42  49 /   0  10  30  50  30  30
Omak           24  35  30  38  36  43 /   0  10  30  50  70  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 240636
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1036 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The north Idaho mountains will continue to receive snow this
evening, along with the Cascade crest near Stevens Pass. The
breezy winds will taper off overnight, and Monday will be a
relatively quiet and chilly day. More rain and heavy mountain snow
is expected Monday night into Tuesday. A breezy and wet but warm
Thanksgiving Day will give way to a colder weather pattern for the
holiday weekend with the mountains receiving several rounds of
snow. Snow levels will fall to valley floors by the weekend.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
The Winter Weather Advisory has been cancelled for the Central
Panhandle Mountains as only some isolated snow showers are
expected through Monday morning. The snow from earlier this
evening and in the afternoon has compacted and formed some ice
over Lookout Pass. This will continue to create some slick
conditions for any travelers through at least Monday morning. /SVH


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The cold front has passed to the east of the region.
This has left a moist boundary layer in its wake across extreme
eastern WA and in the ID Panhandle. Satellite imagery shows an
expanding area of fog and stratus across the Northeast Mtns and in
the ID Panhandle. This is will begin to nudge into KCOE, KSFF,
KGEG and KPUW through the rest of tonight with MVFR/IFR cigs and
vis possible through Monday morning. Another Pacific weather
system will begin to push in over the region Monday afternoon and
evening. A little bit of mixing ahead of this system will result
in improving flight conditions through the afternoon with an
increasing threat for precipitation in the evening. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        27  37  33  42  39  47 /   0  10  50  60  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  28  38  34  40  40  45 /  10  10  60  80  60  70
Pullman        30  41  37  47  44  50 /  10  10  60  90  50  30
Lewiston       34  47  40  52  46  54 /  10  10  60  60  30  20
Colville       23  36  31  39  36  42 /   0  10  50  70  70  50
Sandpoint      28  36  31  38  36  41 /  10  10  70  80  80  80
Kellogg        28  36  33  37  37  40 /  20  10  80  90  80  70
Moses Lake     25  41  33  46  41  52 /   0   0  20  30  10  20
Wenatchee      31  40  35  44  42  49 /   0  10  30  50  30  30
Omak           24  35  30  38  36  43 /   0  10  30  50  70  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 240636
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1036 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The north Idaho mountains will continue to receive snow this
evening, along with the Cascade crest near Stevens Pass. The
breezy winds will taper off overnight, and Monday will be a
relatively quiet and chilly day. More rain and heavy mountain snow
is expected Monday night into Tuesday. A breezy and wet but warm
Thanksgiving Day will give way to a colder weather pattern for the
holiday weekend with the mountains receiving several rounds of
snow. Snow levels will fall to valley floors by the weekend.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
The Winter Weather Advisory has been cancelled for the Central
Panhandle Mountains as only some isolated snow showers are
expected through Monday morning. The snow from earlier this
evening and in the afternoon has compacted and formed some ice
over Lookout Pass. This will continue to create some slick
conditions for any travelers through at least Monday morning. /SVH


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The cold front has passed to the east of the region.
This has left a moist boundary layer in its wake across extreme
eastern WA and in the ID Panhandle. Satellite imagery shows an
expanding area of fog and stratus across the Northeast Mtns and in
the ID Panhandle. This is will begin to nudge into KCOE, KSFF,
KGEG and KPUW through the rest of tonight with MVFR/IFR cigs and
vis possible through Monday morning. Another Pacific weather
system will begin to push in over the region Monday afternoon and
evening. A little bit of mixing ahead of this system will result
in improving flight conditions through the afternoon with an
increasing threat for precipitation in the evening. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        27  37  33  42  39  47 /   0  10  50  60  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  28  38  34  40  40  45 /  10  10  60  80  60  70
Pullman        30  41  37  47  44  50 /  10  10  60  90  50  30
Lewiston       34  47  40  52  46  54 /  10  10  60  60  30  20
Colville       23  36  31  39  36  42 /   0  10  50  70  70  50
Sandpoint      28  36  31  38  36  41 /  10  10  70  80  80  80
Kellogg        28  36  33  37  37  40 /  20  10  80  90  80  70
Moses Lake     25  41  33  46  41  52 /   0   0  20  30  10  20
Wenatchee      31  40  35  44  42  49 /   0  10  30  50  30  30
Omak           24  35  30  38  36  43 /   0  10  30  50  70  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 240636
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1036 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The north Idaho mountains will continue to receive snow this
evening, along with the Cascade crest near Stevens Pass. The
breezy winds will taper off overnight, and Monday will be a
relatively quiet and chilly day. More rain and heavy mountain snow
is expected Monday night into Tuesday. A breezy and wet but warm
Thanksgiving Day will give way to a colder weather pattern for the
holiday weekend with the mountains receiving several rounds of
snow. Snow levels will fall to valley floors by the weekend.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
The Winter Weather Advisory has been cancelled for the Central
Panhandle Mountains as only some isolated snow showers are
expected through Monday morning. The snow from earlier this
evening and in the afternoon has compacted and formed some ice
over Lookout Pass. This will continue to create some slick
conditions for any travelers through at least Monday morning. /SVH


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The cold front has passed to the east of the region.
This has left a moist boundary layer in its wake across extreme
eastern WA and in the ID Panhandle. Satellite imagery shows an
expanding area of fog and stratus across the Northeast Mtns and in
the ID Panhandle. This is will begin to nudge into KCOE, KSFF,
KGEG and KPUW through the rest of tonight with MVFR/IFR cigs and
vis possible through Monday morning. Another Pacific weather
system will begin to push in over the region Monday afternoon and
evening. A little bit of mixing ahead of this system will result
in improving flight conditions through the afternoon with an
increasing threat for precipitation in the evening. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        27  37  33  42  39  47 /   0  10  50  60  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  28  38  34  40  40  45 /  10  10  60  80  60  70
Pullman        30  41  37  47  44  50 /  10  10  60  90  50  30
Lewiston       34  47  40  52  46  54 /  10  10  60  60  30  20
Colville       23  36  31  39  36  42 /   0  10  50  70  70  50
Sandpoint      28  36  31  38  36  41 /  10  10  70  80  80  80
Kellogg        28  36  33  37  37  40 /  20  10  80  90  80  70
Moses Lake     25  41  33  46  41  52 /   0   0  20  30  10  20
Wenatchee      31  40  35  44  42  49 /   0  10  30  50  30  30
Omak           24  35  30  38  36  43 /   0  10  30  50  70  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 240547
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
946 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL ZONE HAS STALLED BETWEEN SALEM AND EUGENE THIS
EVENING...AND CONTINUES TO BRING VALLEY RAIN AND CASCADE SNOW MORE OR
LESS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT
WITH PRECIPITATION DECREASING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY KEEP
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY MONDAY MORNING...BUT A WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING MORE RAIN WITH RISING SNOW LEVELS TO THE DISTRICT
BY MONDAY EVENING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY RIDE ALONG THIS
FRONT TUESDAY...BRINGING MORE RAIN TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WHILE THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY DRY OUT. AFTER A MAINLY DRY
DAY WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
THANKSGIVING DAY FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KRTX RADAR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE PRODUCING A PERSISTENT BAND
OF VALLEY RAIN AND CASCADE SNOW FROM ROUGHLY NEWPORT TO SANTIAM
PASS...ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION
ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE WAS FAIRLY HEAVY EARLIER THIS EVENING...
DROPPING A QUICK 4-7 INCHES OF SNOW EARLIER TODAY AND WARRANTING A
QUICK SNOW ADVISORY FOR AREAS NEAR MOUNT HOOD. VALLEY RAIN WAS HEAVY
AT TIMES AS WELL...WITH A QUICK HALF INCH OF RAIN COMING IN A 1-2
HOUR PERIOD AND RESULTING IN SOME MINOR URBAN FLOODING ISSUES
EARLIER THIS EVENING. PRECIP RATES WITHIN THE FRONTAL BAND ARE NOT
AS IMPRESSIVE AS THEY WERE A COUPLE HOURS AGO. THE ODOT WEBCAM AT
SANTIAM PASS SHOWED A DECENT AMOUNT OF SNOW FALLING...BUT ROADS WERE
GENERALLY WET THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
A COUPLE MORE INCHES AND MAINLY ABOVE 4500-5000 FT WITHIN THE
FRONTAL BAND.

DRY WEATHER PREVAILS BOTH TO THE NORTH AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ROUGHLY 20-30 MILE WIDE FRONTAL BAND...WITH SOME PATCHES OF FOG
FORMING. WE DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BECOME TOO DENSE AND WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT DUE TO VARIABLE CLOUDINESS PASSING BY AT THE MIDDLE AND HIGH
LEVELS. THE FRONTAL ZONE MAY DRIFT A BIT BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NOSES NORTHWARD FROM THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. HOWEVER THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD LOSE ITS DYNAMIC
SUPPORT SOMEWHAT AS THE MAIN UPPER JET AXIS SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE FRONT. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD
DWINDLE OVERNIGHT.

MODELS SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT
SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER WARM FRONT ACROSS THE DISTRICT MON/MON NIGHT.
THIS MAY PRODUCE A BIT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY. ANOTHER VORTMAX IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG
THIS FRONT TUESDAY...AND MOST 00Z MODELS ARE SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE
AMOUNT OF QPF FOR SW WASHINGTON AS IT TAPS INTO A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER. FOR EXAMPLE THE 00Z GFS SHOWING AS MUCH AS 1-3 INCHES FOR THE
S WA CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE RISEN ABOVE 6000 FT BY
THAT POINT.

BY THEN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE DOMINANT SALEM SOUTHWARD...
WITH SOME FOG FORMING TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING IN THE VALLEYS. DESPITE
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS ALOFT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS UPWARDS OF
+10 DEG C WED...THE VALLEYS WILL LIKELY BE STUCK IN A BIT OF AN
INVERSION THUS LIMITING TEMPS SOMEWHAT. MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR WED
AFTERNOON WILL BE TRICKY AS A RESULT. IT DOES APPEAR WED WILL BE DRY
FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT AS UPPER RIDGING TAKES CHARGE.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...MOVING ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES OF WHEN THE
RAIN WILL START. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT ONSHORE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL DAYBREAK. EXPECT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER
THE WEEKEND AND WILL BRING A MUCH STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM. SNOW
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND COULD DROP TO THE PASSES. AS OF NOW...IT
LOOKS LIKE WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR
THOSE RETURNING AFTER THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED CONTINUE TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. DETAILS OF THE
IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM NEXT WEEKENDS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE
REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64

&&

.AVIATION...A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM JUST NORTH OF NEWPORT THROUGH
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
SLOWLY SOUTH AND WEAKEN FURTHER LATER INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AREA OF THE RAIN BAND...WITH
AREAS OF MVFR FROM TIME TO TIME UNDERNEATH ANY HEAVIER RAIN.

BEHIND THE RAIN BAND...SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR WITH LOW MVFR
TO IFR STRATUS FORMING RATHER QUICKLY AFTER CLEARING. EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND WEST TO
EAST. COULD SEE VIS AS LOW AS LIFR...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST
AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTH VALLEY. SHALLOW FOG WILL
BURN OFF BY 17Z-18Z BUT ANY TERMINAL WHICH SEES SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
TONIGHT AND THUS THICKER FOG IN THE MORNING MAY HAVE TROUBLE
CLEARING MUCH AT ALL MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. SAID FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS FIRST TO
THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN INLAND MONDAY EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SOME CLEARING TONIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG
AND/OR LOW STRATUS TO FORM...LIKELY BURNING OFF BY 17Z-18Z.
BOWEN/PYLE

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKENING FRONT HAS MOVED SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY...AND IS NOW LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
NEWPORT. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF EVEN AS THE FRONT HAS CONTINUED TO
WEAKEN...AND ARE NOW WESTERLY AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.
EXPECT THE LULL IN THE WINDS TO LAST INTO EARLY MON. THEN THE
NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS TOMORROW. THE
LATEST FCST MODELS ARE SHOWING WEAKER WINDS THAN THE PREVIOUS
MODEL RUN AND THUS HAVE CANCELLED THE GALE WATCH AND INSTEAD
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND EXTENDED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN 12-15 FT THROUGH
TONIGHT...DECREASING TO 10-12 FEET DURING THE DAY MONDAY. BOWEN

WINDS MAY STAY A BIT GUSTIER ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MID
WEEK BEFORE A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE
WATERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOW END GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS MIGHT
BE SQUEEZED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM AT SOME POINT...BUT THE SCENARIO
DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT PROMISING FOR A SOLID GALE FORCE OR HIGHER
WIND EVENT FOR THE WATERS. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST MONDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 AM
     PST TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 240547
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
946 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL ZONE HAS STALLED BETWEEN SALEM AND EUGENE THIS
EVENING...AND CONTINUES TO BRING VALLEY RAIN AND CASCADE SNOW MORE OR
LESS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT
WITH PRECIPITATION DECREASING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY KEEP
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY MONDAY MORNING...BUT A WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING MORE RAIN WITH RISING SNOW LEVELS TO THE DISTRICT
BY MONDAY EVENING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY RIDE ALONG THIS
FRONT TUESDAY...BRINGING MORE RAIN TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WHILE THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY DRY OUT. AFTER A MAINLY DRY
DAY WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
THANKSGIVING DAY FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KRTX RADAR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE PRODUCING A PERSISTENT BAND
OF VALLEY RAIN AND CASCADE SNOW FROM ROUGHLY NEWPORT TO SANTIAM
PASS...ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION
ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE WAS FAIRLY HEAVY EARLIER THIS EVENING...
DROPPING A QUICK 4-7 INCHES OF SNOW EARLIER TODAY AND WARRANTING A
QUICK SNOW ADVISORY FOR AREAS NEAR MOUNT HOOD. VALLEY RAIN WAS HEAVY
AT TIMES AS WELL...WITH A QUICK HALF INCH OF RAIN COMING IN A 1-2
HOUR PERIOD AND RESULTING IN SOME MINOR URBAN FLOODING ISSUES
EARLIER THIS EVENING. PRECIP RATES WITHIN THE FRONTAL BAND ARE NOT
AS IMPRESSIVE AS THEY WERE A COUPLE HOURS AGO. THE ODOT WEBCAM AT
SANTIAM PASS SHOWED A DECENT AMOUNT OF SNOW FALLING...BUT ROADS WERE
GENERALLY WET THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
A COUPLE MORE INCHES AND MAINLY ABOVE 4500-5000 FT WITHIN THE
FRONTAL BAND.

DRY WEATHER PREVAILS BOTH TO THE NORTH AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ROUGHLY 20-30 MILE WIDE FRONTAL BAND...WITH SOME PATCHES OF FOG
FORMING. WE DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BECOME TOO DENSE AND WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT DUE TO VARIABLE CLOUDINESS PASSING BY AT THE MIDDLE AND HIGH
LEVELS. THE FRONTAL ZONE MAY DRIFT A BIT BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NOSES NORTHWARD FROM THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. HOWEVER THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD LOSE ITS DYNAMIC
SUPPORT SOMEWHAT AS THE MAIN UPPER JET AXIS SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE FRONT. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD
DWINDLE OVERNIGHT.

MODELS SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT
SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER WARM FRONT ACROSS THE DISTRICT MON/MON NIGHT.
THIS MAY PRODUCE A BIT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY. ANOTHER VORTMAX IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG
THIS FRONT TUESDAY...AND MOST 00Z MODELS ARE SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE
AMOUNT OF QPF FOR SW WASHINGTON AS IT TAPS INTO A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER. FOR EXAMPLE THE 00Z GFS SHOWING AS MUCH AS 1-3 INCHES FOR THE
S WA CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE RISEN ABOVE 6000 FT BY
THAT POINT.

BY THEN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE DOMINANT SALEM SOUTHWARD...
WITH SOME FOG FORMING TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING IN THE VALLEYS. DESPITE
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS ALOFT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS UPWARDS OF
+10 DEG C WED...THE VALLEYS WILL LIKELY BE STUCK IN A BIT OF AN
INVERSION THUS LIMITING TEMPS SOMEWHAT. MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR WED
AFTERNOON WILL BE TRICKY AS A RESULT. IT DOES APPEAR WED WILL BE DRY
FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT AS UPPER RIDGING TAKES CHARGE.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...MOVING ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES OF WHEN THE
RAIN WILL START. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT ONSHORE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL DAYBREAK. EXPECT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER
THE WEEKEND AND WILL BRING A MUCH STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM. SNOW
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND COULD DROP TO THE PASSES. AS OF NOW...IT
LOOKS LIKE WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR
THOSE RETURNING AFTER THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED CONTINUE TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. DETAILS OF THE
IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM NEXT WEEKENDS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE
REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64

&&

.AVIATION...A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM JUST NORTH OF NEWPORT THROUGH
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
SLOWLY SOUTH AND WEAKEN FURTHER LATER INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AREA OF THE RAIN BAND...WITH
AREAS OF MVFR FROM TIME TO TIME UNDERNEATH ANY HEAVIER RAIN.

BEHIND THE RAIN BAND...SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR WITH LOW MVFR
TO IFR STRATUS FORMING RATHER QUICKLY AFTER CLEARING. EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND WEST TO
EAST. COULD SEE VIS AS LOW AS LIFR...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST
AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTH VALLEY. SHALLOW FOG WILL
BURN OFF BY 17Z-18Z BUT ANY TERMINAL WHICH SEES SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
TONIGHT AND THUS THICKER FOG IN THE MORNING MAY HAVE TROUBLE
CLEARING MUCH AT ALL MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. SAID FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS FIRST TO
THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN INLAND MONDAY EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SOME CLEARING TONIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG
AND/OR LOW STRATUS TO FORM...LIKELY BURNING OFF BY 17Z-18Z.
BOWEN/PYLE

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKENING FRONT HAS MOVED SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY...AND IS NOW LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
NEWPORT. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF EVEN AS THE FRONT HAS CONTINUED TO
WEAKEN...AND ARE NOW WESTERLY AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.
EXPECT THE LULL IN THE WINDS TO LAST INTO EARLY MON. THEN THE
NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS TOMORROW. THE
LATEST FCST MODELS ARE SHOWING WEAKER WINDS THAN THE PREVIOUS
MODEL RUN AND THUS HAVE CANCELLED THE GALE WATCH AND INSTEAD
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND EXTENDED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN 12-15 FT THROUGH
TONIGHT...DECREASING TO 10-12 FEET DURING THE DAY MONDAY. BOWEN

WINDS MAY STAY A BIT GUSTIER ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MID
WEEK BEFORE A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE
WATERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOW END GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS MIGHT
BE SQUEEZED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM AT SOME POINT...BUT THE SCENARIO
DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT PROMISING FOR A SOLID GALE FORCE OR HIGHER
WIND EVENT FOR THE WATERS. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST MONDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 AM
     PST TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 240506
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
905 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A BREAK IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA LATE MONDAY WITH RAIN
DEVELOPING. WET WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS IN THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...JUST A NARROW CONVERGENCE ZONE PERSISTS AROUND
SNOQUALMIE PASS AT THIS TIME...WITH WSDOT CAMERAS SHOWING SNOW AT
THE PASS RIGHT NOW. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE SHOULD WASH OUT ANY TIME
NOW AS ONSHORE FLOW ENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH PREDOMINANTLY
PRECIP-FREE WEATHER FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WILL BE
SAFE TO LET THE WINTER STORM WARNING IN THE CASCADES EXPIRE AT 10
PM.

A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE NE PAC AND PAC NW
ON MON AND TUE. STRONG WARM ADVECTION LIFT NEAR THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH A WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONT
N-NE THROUGH THE FCST AREA LATER MON AND TUE. MOISTURE AND
INCREASING LIFT WILL CAUSE RAIN TO START DEVELOPING OVER WRN WA
AROUND MID-DAY MON...WITH EXPANSION AND INTENSIFICATION OF THE RAIN
ON MON NIGHT AND TUE. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE SUBSTANTIALLY ON MON NGT
AND TUE...SO ONLY LOOKING FOR A FEW HOURS OF SNOW IN THE MTN PASSES
AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP BEFORE A DECIDED CHANGE TO ALL RAIN ON MON
NGT.

THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED WARM FRONT WILL TURN UP STATIONARY SOMEWHERE
AROUND LATITUDE 48 TO 50 ON TUE. WRN WA WILL THEN BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS RUNNING ARND +5C TO
+7C. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE HIGH...AND STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO STRONG OROGRPHIC LIFT OVER THE MTNS. THIS
WILL BRING A FEW INCHES OF RAIN TO THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES ON TUE
AND TUE NGT...WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN LIFTING NORTH TO NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER ON WED.   HANER

.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED FORECAST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND IS CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR NOW WITH NO ATTEMPT TO SORT OUT
THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS OF LATE. THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO
MAKE THANKSGIVING WET BUT AFTER THAT THE FCSTS DIVERGE. THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE...THE DIRTY RIDGE WARM FRONT...SHOULD REDEVELOP AND
MERGE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IN THE CONFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER WA...SO THANKSGIVING COULD BE ANOTHER WET DAY.
BEYOND THAT IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHETHER WRN WA WILL REMAIN WET
AND MILD...OR COOL OFF LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WAS ISSUED FOR RIVERS FLOWING OFF
THE CASCADES FROM WHATCOM SOUTH THROUGH KING COUNTY. HEAVY RAIN WITH
HIGH SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. NWRFC FORECASTS SHOW THE RIVERS TO KEEP AN EYE ON ARE THE
NOOKSACK... STILLAGUAMISH... AND SNOQUALMIE. INDEED...THE STRONG
WARM ADVECTION AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT USUALLY FAVOR THESE BASINS IN
TERMS OF HEAVIER RAIN AND RIVER RISES.  HANER

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME WLY ON MON. AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES IS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. IT
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NE MON AS A WARM FRONT TO THE SW OF THE AREA
APPROACHES...THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA MON EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS IS STABLE AND MAINLY DRY THIS EVENING. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MON
MORNING WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA...AND LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MON AFTERNOON.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. SOME LOCAL IFR IN FOG CAN BE
EXPECTED IN MORE FOG-PRONE RIVER VALLEYS AND IN THE SOUTH INTERIOR.
CIGS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 030 MOST AREAS MON AFTERNOON THEN TO
015-020 MON AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION FORMS OVER THE AREA. ALBRECHT

KSEA...EXPECT ONLY SOME SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH MON MORNING WITH
SE WINDS 4-7 KT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER MON MORNING AND WILL
FALL TO AROUND 030 MID AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN WILL LOWER CIGS TO
AROUND 020 LATE MON AFTERNOON. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA THEN MOVES NE.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE S ON MON. THIS WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING S TO SE WINDS OVER THE WATERS MON AND MON NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE WATERS OR JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE WATERS ON TUE AND WED. STRONG SW FLOW ON THE ORDER OF
20 TO 30 KT CAN BE EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL SLIP BACK SOUTH ON THU...THEN FRASER OUTFLOW AND STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW IS POSSIBLE NEXT FRI.

HAZARDOUS SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MON MORNING
AND THEN SUBSIDE A BIT ON MON AFTN. HANER/ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING IN THE CASCADES EXPIRES AT 10 PM.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT...ADMIRALTY
      INLET AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS STARTING 7 AM PST MONDAY.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 240506
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
905 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A BREAK IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA LATE MONDAY WITH RAIN
DEVELOPING. WET WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS IN THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...JUST A NARROW CONVERGENCE ZONE PERSISTS AROUND
SNOQUALMIE PASS AT THIS TIME...WITH WSDOT CAMERAS SHOWING SNOW AT
THE PASS RIGHT NOW. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE SHOULD WASH OUT ANY TIME
NOW AS ONSHORE FLOW ENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH PREDOMINANTLY
PRECIP-FREE WEATHER FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WILL BE
SAFE TO LET THE WINTER STORM WARNING IN THE CASCADES EXPIRE AT 10
PM.

A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE NE PAC AND PAC NW
ON MON AND TUE. STRONG WARM ADVECTION LIFT NEAR THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH A WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONT
N-NE THROUGH THE FCST AREA LATER MON AND TUE. MOISTURE AND
INCREASING LIFT WILL CAUSE RAIN TO START DEVELOPING OVER WRN WA
AROUND MID-DAY MON...WITH EXPANSION AND INTENSIFICATION OF THE RAIN
ON MON NIGHT AND TUE. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE SUBSTANTIALLY ON MON NGT
AND TUE...SO ONLY LOOKING FOR A FEW HOURS OF SNOW IN THE MTN PASSES
AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP BEFORE A DECIDED CHANGE TO ALL RAIN ON MON
NGT.

THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED WARM FRONT WILL TURN UP STATIONARY SOMEWHERE
AROUND LATITUDE 48 TO 50 ON TUE. WRN WA WILL THEN BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS RUNNING ARND +5C TO
+7C. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE HIGH...AND STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO STRONG OROGRPHIC LIFT OVER THE MTNS. THIS
WILL BRING A FEW INCHES OF RAIN TO THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES ON TUE
AND TUE NGT...WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN LIFTING NORTH TO NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER ON WED.   HANER

.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED FORECAST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND IS CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR NOW WITH NO ATTEMPT TO SORT OUT
THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS OF LATE. THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO
MAKE THANKSGIVING WET BUT AFTER THAT THE FCSTS DIVERGE. THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE...THE DIRTY RIDGE WARM FRONT...SHOULD REDEVELOP AND
MERGE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IN THE CONFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER WA...SO THANKSGIVING COULD BE ANOTHER WET DAY.
BEYOND THAT IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHETHER WRN WA WILL REMAIN WET
AND MILD...OR COOL OFF LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WAS ISSUED FOR RIVERS FLOWING OFF
THE CASCADES FROM WHATCOM SOUTH THROUGH KING COUNTY. HEAVY RAIN WITH
HIGH SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. NWRFC FORECASTS SHOW THE RIVERS TO KEEP AN EYE ON ARE THE
NOOKSACK... STILLAGUAMISH... AND SNOQUALMIE. INDEED...THE STRONG
WARM ADVECTION AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT USUALLY FAVOR THESE BASINS IN
TERMS OF HEAVIER RAIN AND RIVER RISES.  HANER

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME WLY ON MON. AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES IS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. IT
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NE MON AS A WARM FRONT TO THE SW OF THE AREA
APPROACHES...THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA MON EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS IS STABLE AND MAINLY DRY THIS EVENING. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MON
MORNING WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA...AND LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MON AFTERNOON.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. SOME LOCAL IFR IN FOG CAN BE
EXPECTED IN MORE FOG-PRONE RIVER VALLEYS AND IN THE SOUTH INTERIOR.
CIGS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 030 MOST AREAS MON AFTERNOON THEN TO
015-020 MON AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION FORMS OVER THE AREA. ALBRECHT

KSEA...EXPECT ONLY SOME SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH MON MORNING WITH
SE WINDS 4-7 KT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER MON MORNING AND WILL
FALL TO AROUND 030 MID AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN WILL LOWER CIGS TO
AROUND 020 LATE MON AFTERNOON. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA THEN MOVES NE.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE S ON MON. THIS WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING S TO SE WINDS OVER THE WATERS MON AND MON NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE WATERS OR JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE WATERS ON TUE AND WED. STRONG SW FLOW ON THE ORDER OF
20 TO 30 KT CAN BE EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL SLIP BACK SOUTH ON THU...THEN FRASER OUTFLOW AND STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW IS POSSIBLE NEXT FRI.

HAZARDOUS SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MON MORNING
AND THEN SUBSIDE A BIT ON MON AFTN. HANER/ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING IN THE CASCADES EXPIRES AT 10 PM.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT...ADMIRALTY
      INLET AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS STARTING 7 AM PST MONDAY.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KOTX 240254
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
653 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The north Idaho mountains will continue to receive snow this
evening, along with the Cascade crest near Stevens Pass. The
breezy winds will taper off overnight, and Monday will be a
relatively quiet and chilly day. More rain and heavy mountain snow
is expected Monday night into Tuesday. A breezy and wet but warm
Thanksgiving Day will give way to a colder weather pattern for the
holiday weekend with the mountains receiving several rounds of
snow. Snow levels will fall to valley floors by the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update sent out to decrease cloud cover across much of the
region away from the Cascade crest and into the basin. Drier air
is beginning to funnel into the region behind the cold front
passage from this afternoon. Dew point temperatures will lower
steadily through tonight down into the 20s from west to east.
Skies will also continue to clear out across much of eastern WA.
This will promote strong radiational cooling as winds continue to
weaken overnight. Snow showers in the ID Panhandle will also
dwindle overnight. This will begin to shift our focus toward the
potential for icing on roadways, especially where moisture is
present. This may lead to a slick morning commute for Monday. The
highest threat areas will be across extreme eastern WA and into
the ID Panhandle. /SVH


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Radar and satellite trends show the band of
precipitation associated with a surface front moving southeast at
a good clip. This will affect the KPUW/KLWS TAF sites for the next
couple of hours before exiting to the south. Also of note is a
strong convergence band of precip just to the south of KEAT. A
weaker band may bring brief MVFR conditions to KEAT through 02Z.
Dry/downslope advection from the west/northwest this evening
should disperse stratus in the evening, but fog and low stratus
will crop up toward Monday morning from KPUW to KGEG and KSFF. The
next weather system will approach the KEAT area after 00Z Tuesday.
/EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        27  37  33  42  39  47 /  10  10  50  60  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  28  38  34  40  40  45 /  10  10  60  80  60  70
Pullman        30  41  37  47  44  50 /  10  10  60  90  50  30
Lewiston       34  47  40  52  46  54 /  20  10  60  60  30  20
Colville       23  36  31  39  36  42 /  10  10  50  70  70  50
Sandpoint      28  36  31  38  36  41 /  20  10  70  80  80  80
Kellogg        28  36  33  37  37  40 /  60  10  80  90  80  70
Moses Lake     25  41  33  46  41  52 /  10   0  20  30  10  20
Wenatchee      31  40  35  44  42  49 /  10  10  30  50  30  30
Omak           24  35  30  38  36  43 /  10  10  30  50  70  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 240254
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
653 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The north Idaho mountains will continue to receive snow this
evening, along with the Cascade crest near Stevens Pass. The
breezy winds will taper off overnight, and Monday will be a
relatively quiet and chilly day. More rain and heavy mountain snow
is expected Monday night into Tuesday. A breezy and wet but warm
Thanksgiving Day will give way to a colder weather pattern for the
holiday weekend with the mountains receiving several rounds of
snow. Snow levels will fall to valley floors by the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update sent out to decrease cloud cover across much of the
region away from the Cascade crest and into the basin. Drier air
is beginning to funnel into the region behind the cold front
passage from this afternoon. Dew point temperatures will lower
steadily through tonight down into the 20s from west to east.
Skies will also continue to clear out across much of eastern WA.
This will promote strong radiational cooling as winds continue to
weaken overnight. Snow showers in the ID Panhandle will also
dwindle overnight. This will begin to shift our focus toward the
potential for icing on roadways, especially where moisture is
present. This may lead to a slick morning commute for Monday. The
highest threat areas will be across extreme eastern WA and into
the ID Panhandle. /SVH


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Radar and satellite trends show the band of
precipitation associated with a surface front moving southeast at
a good clip. This will affect the KPUW/KLWS TAF sites for the next
couple of hours before exiting to the south. Also of note is a
strong convergence band of precip just to the south of KEAT. A
weaker band may bring brief MVFR conditions to KEAT through 02Z.
Dry/downslope advection from the west/northwest this evening
should disperse stratus in the evening, but fog and low stratus
will crop up toward Monday morning from KPUW to KGEG and KSFF. The
next weather system will approach the KEAT area after 00Z Tuesday.
/EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        27  37  33  42  39  47 /  10  10  50  60  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  28  38  34  40  40  45 /  10  10  60  80  60  70
Pullman        30  41  37  47  44  50 /  10  10  60  90  50  30
Lewiston       34  47  40  52  46  54 /  20  10  60  60  30  20
Colville       23  36  31  39  36  42 /  10  10  50  70  70  50
Sandpoint      28  36  31  38  36  41 /  20  10  70  80  80  80
Kellogg        28  36  33  37  37  40 /  60  10  80  90  80  70
Moses Lake     25  41  33  46  41  52 /  10   0  20  30  10  20
Wenatchee      31  40  35  44  42  49 /  10  10  30  50  30  30
Omak           24  35  30  38  36  43 /  10  10  30  50  70  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 232341
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
341 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The north Idaho mountains will continue to receive snow this
evening, along with the Cascade crest near Stevens Pass. The
breezy winds will taper off overnight, and Monday will be a
relatively quiet and chilly day. More rain and heavy mountain snow
is expected Monday night into Tuesday. A breezy and wet but warm
Thanksgiving Day will give way to a colder weather pattern for the
holiday weekend with the mountains receiving several rounds of
snow. Snow levels will fall to valley floors by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Monday: A temporary break in the wet weather can be
expected starting tonight. A moist and progressive cold front will
push south and east of Spokane and through north Idaho early this
evening. Somewhat drier air will move into the region from the
northwest, although enough residual moisture and favorable
orographic flow will keep the threat of mountain showers. This is
especially true along the Cascade crest near Stevens Pass where
hints of a PSCZ may linger and then Central Idaho panhandle
mountains. The only concern for accumulating valley snow would be
north of Bonners Ferry, but the front will quickly exit this area
and allow the threat of snow to taper off. Meanwhile, either the
valley locations will be done with snow for the evening, or have
warmed up and should just experience rain this evening especially
across the central and southern Idaho panhandle. Breezy winds will
continue into the early evening behind the front with gusts to 30
mph. These winds will decrease overnight and become light by
Monday as surface pressure gradients relax. Skies will clear for a
good chunk of eastern Washington. This coupled with lighter winds,
wet ground and radiational cooling will lead to rather chilly
temperatures overnight into the 20s. These sub freezing lows and
frozen ground will also raise the risk of icy roadways by early
Monday morning for the commute. Meanwhile, boundary layer moisture
remains high overnight especially across the Palouse and
Spokane/Coeur d`Alene area. Given the southwest winds and light
precipitation today, there is a good chance of seeing stratus and
patchy fog develop late tonight into Monday morning. This threat
will expand into the northern and Panhandle valleys as well. By
Monday, the low cloud deck will gradually erode but daytime
temperatures will be inhibited by the cloud cover. In addition,
mid and high level clouds will be on the increase as the next
weather system approaches. /rfox.

Monday night through Thursday morning...No major changes for the
mid forecast time frame. High pressure will build in the eastern
Pacific just off the coast. This will put the Inland Northwest in
a northwest flow...before coming around to westerly Wednesday
night. This flow will tap in deep Pacific moisture tap to move
over the ridge and drop through the region through the period. We
are looking at an extended wet and unsettled period through early
Wednesday evening.

* Precipitation: You bet. Precipitable water by Tuesday morning
  will approach an inch which is around 270% of normal. Quite wet
  indeed. Isentropic up-glide will get established over Pac NW
  early Tuesday evening and remain in place through Wednesday
  afternoon. A pretty substantial rain shadow will develop in the
  lee of the Cascades keeping the lower east slopes and the deep
  basin from getting much more than a few hundredths to maybe a
  tenth of an inch. Outside of the basin the lower elevations and
  northern mountains look to get from .25 to .55 if not slightly
  more. The Panhandle mountains from .50 to .80 and the higher
  elevation of the Cascades from .50 to well over an inch near the
  crest.

* Snow: A much trickier questions. Southerly surface winds and
  strong warm advection is what will cause the lifting processes to
  squeeze out all the moisture. But this will also raise snow
  levels rapidly Tuesday night. For all of the urban areas snow
  levels will be high enough for precipitation as all rain. The
  tricky parts will be the mountain valleys. By the time the
  heaviest precipitation gets into these areas the snow should
  turn to rain. At this time snow accumulations for all of the
  mountain valleys remain below highlight criteria. An even
  trickier snow forecast will be for northeast WA and ID Panhandle
  mountains above 3-4k feet where the same processes will be at
  work, but it will take a little longer to warm. 24 hour snow
  amounts will range from 6-9 inches which would be the low end of
  an advisory. I will hold off on any highlights...first because
  we already have advisories out for the central Panhandle
  mountains and second there is still a little uncertainty on just
  how fast temperatures will increase.

* Temperatures and wind: As mentioned above there will be strong
  warm air advection and breezy/gusty south-southwest winds.
  Temperatures on Tuesday will increase with high from the mid 30s
  across the north to the high 40s/lower 50s across the south.
  Then add 4-5 more degrees for Wednesday putting highs well into
  the 40s and 50s. South-southwest of 10-25 mph with gusts 25-35
  mph will be common across the region. /Tobin


Thanksgiving Day through Sunday...Another day, another fight
between medium range models. Why can`t we just get along? The
00Z run of the ECMWF was showing an arctic front dropping south
across the forecast area Thanksgiving Day, leading to a much
colder forecast than the more consistent GFS. Surprise...the 12Z
EC is much closer to the GFS solution. There are still differences
in several of the details but the general consensus is for warmer
temperatures in southerly flow at least through Turkey Day. The
stream of shortwave energy riding over the forecast area will
bring some precipitation to the higher elevations of the Inland
Northwest but valley precip is one of those pesky details that
model are having a hard time deciding on, depending on the
location of the upper jet and associated areas of enhanced lift.
This jet will be directing a fetch of deep moisture into the
region with Pwats approaching 200 percent of normal. At least
there is agreement on liquid precip as snow levels will be quite
high. Breezy southerly winds will keep the atmosphere somewhat
mixed overnight, keeping low temperatures at or above freezing for
most of the valleys. The exceptions will be across the extreme
northern valleys where winds will start to shift to the north and
colder, drier air will infiltrate the valleys. For Friday and into
the weekend, models start to fight again. The general trend will
be a cooldown as an arctic front slides south but timing and
southern extent of the very cold air is still being debated.
/Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Radar and satellite trends show the band of
precipitation associated with a surface front moving southeast at
a good clip. This will affect the KPUW/KLWS TAF sites for the next
couple of hours before exiting to the south. Also of note is a
strong convergence band of precip just to the south of KEAT. A
weaker band may bring brief MVFR conditions to KEAT through 02Z.
Dry/downslope advection from the west/northwest this evening
should disperse stratus in the evening, but fog and low stratus
will crop up toward Monday morning from KPUW to KGEG and KSFF. The
next weather system will approach the KEAT area after 00Z Tuesday.
/EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        27  37  33  42  39  47 /  10  10  50  60  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  28  38  34  40  40  45 /  20  10  60  80  60  70
Pullman        30  41  37  47  44  50 /  20  10  60  90  50  30
Lewiston       34  47  40  52  46  54 /  20  10  60  60  30  20
Colville       23  36  31  39  36  42 /  10  10  50  70  70  50
Sandpoint      28  36  31  38  36  41 /  40  10  70  80  80  80
Kellogg        28  36  33  37  37  40 /  70  10  80  90  80  70
Moses Lake     25  41  33  46  41  52 /  10   0  20  30  10  20
Wenatchee      31  40  35  44  42  49 /  10  10  30  50  30  30
Omak           24  35  30  38  36  43 /  10  10  30  50  70  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 232327
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES WILL TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA LATE MONDAY. WET WEATHER
IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY WITH A HIGH SNOW LEVEL IN THE MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES WILL TAPER OFF AS THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT GIVES OUT THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL END IN THE
LOWLANDS. A WARM FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA BY ABOUT MONDAY EVENING.
SURGES OF WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF WESTERN WA MON
NITE THRU WED MORNING. AREAS IN THE LEE OF THE OLYMPICS SHOULD NOT
END UP WITH MUCH RAINFALL WHILE THE NORTH CASCADES GET THE BRUNT OF
IT. HEAVY RAINFALL IN PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS GAVE WAY TO A MORE
REASONABLE SOLUTION TODAY WHICH SHOWS A 48 HOUR RAINFALL MAXIMUM
NEAR MT BAKER OF 5.6 INCHES ENDING 18Z WED...MUCH LESS RAIN THAN
EARLIER SOLUTIONS.

.LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS CLOSE TO
CLIMO FOR NOW WITH NO ATTEMPT TO SORT OUT THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS OF LATE. THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO MAKE THANKSGIVING WET
BUT AFTER THAT THE FCSTS DIVERGE. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...THE DIRTY
RIDGE WARM FRONT...SHOULD REDEVELOP AND MERGE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE IN THE CONFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER WA...SO
THANKSGIVING COULD BE ANOTHER WET DAY. BEYOND THAT IT IS DIFFICULT
TO SAY WHETHER WRN WA WILL REMAIN WET AND MILD...OR COOL OFF LIKE
THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WAS ISSUED FOR WHATCOM TO KING
COUNTY FOR NWRFC FORECASTS THAT SHOW THE RIVERS TO WATCH ARE THE
NOOKSACK...STILLAGUAMISH...AND SNOQUALMIE. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN
THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS
WERE EXTREMELY WET IN THE NORTH CASCADES BUT ALL THE MODELS NOW HAVE
MORE BELIEVABLE RAIN TOTALS. FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY IF THE 12Z AND
18Z NAM PRECIP AMOUNTS VERIFY AND THE 12Z EURO HAD MUCH LESS PRECIP
THAN THE OLD 00Z RUN SO THAT IS ENCOURAGING.

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT THIS EVENING...BECOMING MODERATE
SW FLOW ALOFT ON MON. THE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IS MOIST AND
UNSTABLE...BUT IT WILL BECOME STABLE ON MON AFTN AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS WRN WA. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY CONTRACTED IN
COVERAGE TO THE MTNS AND SW INTERIOR...AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO
SHRINK THIS EVNG AS ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS. LOOKING FOR A DECIDEDLY
DRY PERIOD FROM 12Z-18Z MON...THEN THE WARM FRONT WILL CAUSE SOME
LIGHT RAIN TO BLOSSOM OVER WRN WA ON MON AFTN. CIGS GENERALLY
RUNNING 2000 FEET MSL OR HIGHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

KSEA...THE TERMINAL IS LIKELY TO REMAIN RAIN-FREE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUDS ARND 025-040. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL
START TO DEVELOP AFT 21Z ON MON. AT THAT POINT...CLOUDS WILL FILL
IN...BECOMING OVERCAST AND SLOWLY LOWERING ON MON EVNG. SW SFC WINDS
WEAKENING THIS EVNG...AND THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WIND SHIFT LINE NEAR
DOWNTOWN SEATTLE SHOULD WASH OUT AND DISSIPATE. SOUTH WIND ON MON...
INCREASING IN SPEED THROUGH THE DAY.        HANER

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS ON MON AND MON NIGHT...
LEADING TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS STARTING MONDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE WATERS OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE WATERS ON TUE AND WED. STRONG SW FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30
KT CAN BE EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SLIP
BACK SOUTH ON THU...THEN FRASER OUTFLOW AND STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IS
POSSIBLE NEXT FRI.

HAZARDOUS SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MON MORNING
AND THEN SUBSIDE A BIT ON MON AFTN.     HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...WINTER STORM WARNING CASCADES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT PUGET SOUND.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KSEW 232327
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES WILL TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA LATE MONDAY. WET WEATHER
IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY WITH A HIGH SNOW LEVEL IN THE MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES WILL TAPER OFF AS THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT GIVES OUT THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL END IN THE
LOWLANDS. A WARM FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA BY ABOUT MONDAY EVENING.
SURGES OF WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF WESTERN WA MON
NITE THRU WED MORNING. AREAS IN THE LEE OF THE OLYMPICS SHOULD NOT
END UP WITH MUCH RAINFALL WHILE THE NORTH CASCADES GET THE BRUNT OF
IT. HEAVY RAINFALL IN PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS GAVE WAY TO A MORE
REASONABLE SOLUTION TODAY WHICH SHOWS A 48 HOUR RAINFALL MAXIMUM
NEAR MT BAKER OF 5.6 INCHES ENDING 18Z WED...MUCH LESS RAIN THAN
EARLIER SOLUTIONS.

.LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS CLOSE TO
CLIMO FOR NOW WITH NO ATTEMPT TO SORT OUT THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS OF LATE. THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO MAKE THANKSGIVING WET
BUT AFTER THAT THE FCSTS DIVERGE. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...THE DIRTY
RIDGE WARM FRONT...SHOULD REDEVELOP AND MERGE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE IN THE CONFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER WA...SO
THANKSGIVING COULD BE ANOTHER WET DAY. BEYOND THAT IT IS DIFFICULT
TO SAY WHETHER WRN WA WILL REMAIN WET AND MILD...OR COOL OFF LIKE
THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WAS ISSUED FOR WHATCOM TO KING
COUNTY FOR NWRFC FORECASTS THAT SHOW THE RIVERS TO WATCH ARE THE
NOOKSACK...STILLAGUAMISH...AND SNOQUALMIE. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN
THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS
WERE EXTREMELY WET IN THE NORTH CASCADES BUT ALL THE MODELS NOW HAVE
MORE BELIEVABLE RAIN TOTALS. FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY IF THE 12Z AND
18Z NAM PRECIP AMOUNTS VERIFY AND THE 12Z EURO HAD MUCH LESS PRECIP
THAN THE OLD 00Z RUN SO THAT IS ENCOURAGING.

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT THIS EVENING...BECOMING MODERATE
SW FLOW ALOFT ON MON. THE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IS MOIST AND
UNSTABLE...BUT IT WILL BECOME STABLE ON MON AFTN AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS WRN WA. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY CONTRACTED IN
COVERAGE TO THE MTNS AND SW INTERIOR...AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO
SHRINK THIS EVNG AS ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS. LOOKING FOR A DECIDEDLY
DRY PERIOD FROM 12Z-18Z MON...THEN THE WARM FRONT WILL CAUSE SOME
LIGHT RAIN TO BLOSSOM OVER WRN WA ON MON AFTN. CIGS GENERALLY
RUNNING 2000 FEET MSL OR HIGHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

KSEA...THE TERMINAL IS LIKELY TO REMAIN RAIN-FREE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUDS ARND 025-040. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL
START TO DEVELOP AFT 21Z ON MON. AT THAT POINT...CLOUDS WILL FILL
IN...BECOMING OVERCAST AND SLOWLY LOWERING ON MON EVNG. SW SFC WINDS
WEAKENING THIS EVNG...AND THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WIND SHIFT LINE NEAR
DOWNTOWN SEATTLE SHOULD WASH OUT AND DISSIPATE. SOUTH WIND ON MON...
INCREASING IN SPEED THROUGH THE DAY.        HANER

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS ON MON AND MON NIGHT...
LEADING TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS STARTING MONDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE WATERS OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE WATERS ON TUE AND WED. STRONG SW FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30
KT CAN BE EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SLIP
BACK SOUTH ON THU...THEN FRASER OUTFLOW AND STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IS
POSSIBLE NEXT FRI.

HAZARDOUS SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MON MORNING
AND THEN SUBSIDE A BIT ON MON AFTN.     HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...WINTER STORM WARNING CASCADES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT PUGET SOUND.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KPQR 232257
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
256 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT IS SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS NW OREGON THIS
EVENING...AND SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
VALLEY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A WARMER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT STALLED
OVER SW WASHINGTON THIS MORNING HAS MOVED SOUTH INTO OREGON EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERATING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...THUNDER AND HEAVY RAIN
FOR NW OREGON. THE FRONT...AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WILL THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAKE IT DOWN TO THE SALEM AREA AROUND 4 PM AND
POSSIBLY EVEN FURTHER SOUTH THAN THAT...DOWN TO ALBANY AROUND 5 PM.
HOWEVER THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET...AND THINK THE
THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS WELL.

THE PRECIPITATION BAND WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE CANCELED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE
RAIN WILL DECREASE AS IT MOVES SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND AM NOT SURE
WHETHER ANY RAIN WILL MAKE IT TO EUGENE. IF SO...IT SHOULD BE BRIEF
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. EXPECT THE RAIN TO END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH CLEARING SKIES LEADING TO FOG IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS BY MONDAY
MORNING.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT FROM THE
SOUTH WILL MERGE WITH A COLDER FRONT TO THE NORTH OFFSHORE BEFORE
PUSHING ONSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARMER PORTION OF THE FRONT
WILL FIRST MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE COLDER FRONT
MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE WELL
ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE
NE PACIFIC. THE RAIN SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN COAST
RANGE...COAST...AND NORTHERN CASCADES BY TUESDAY EVENING. BESIDES A
FEW MORNING SHOWERS OVER SW WASHINGTON EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...MOST
OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY. SHOULD BE A RETURN OF VALLEY FOG WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...MOVING ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES OF WHEN THE
RAIN WILL START. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT ONSHORE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL DAYBREAK. EXPECT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER
THE WEEKEND AND WILL BRING A MUCH STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM. SNOW
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND COULD DROP TO THE PASSES. AS OF NOW...IT
LOOKS LIKE WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR
THOSE RETURNING AFTER THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED CONTINUE TO BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. DETAILS OF THE
IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM NEXT WEEKENDS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE
REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64
&&

.AVIATION...A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM JUST SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK THROUGH
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH AND WEAKEN FURTHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME...WITH
AREAS OF MVFR FROM TIME TO TIME UNDERNEATH THE HEAVIER RAIN BAND.
THERE IS ALSO STILL ISOLATED THUNDER BEING DETECTED ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT THIS THREAT SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING.

EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AND THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW SOME PATCHY MVFR OR IFR FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO FORM
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS INTO THE COAST BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z MON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING
FRONT MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE CIGS INTO MVFR THROUGH 00Z. SOME
CLEARING TONIGHT MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO FORM
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY MON MORNING. PYLE
&&

.MARINE...A WEAKENING FRONT HAS MOVED SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY...AND IS NOW LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
TILLAMOOK. THERE IS STILL ISOLATED THUNDER BEING DETECTED ALONG
THE FRONT...BUT EXPECT THIS THREAT TO END BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
HAS WEAKENED...AND ARE NOW WESTERLY AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KT.
THUS...WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS TO DROP OFF
AT 3 PM. EXPECT THE LULL IN THE WINDS TO LAST INTO EARLY MON. THEN
THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS TOMORROW. THE
LATEST FCST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT LOW END GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE A POSSIBILITY TOMORROW...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. DECIDED TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH STARTING AT 10 AM.

WINDS MAY STAY A BIT GUSTIER ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MID
WEEK BEFORE A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE
WATERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOW END GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS MIGHT
BE SQUEEZED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM AT SOME POINT...BUT THE SCENARIO
DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT PROMISING FOR A SOLID GALE FORCE OR HIGHER
WIND EVENT FOR THE WATERS.

SEAS HAVE COME UP JUST A BIT TODAY...AND ARE NOW AROUND 12 TO 14
FT. EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT AND MON. HOWEVER...EXPECT
SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT INTO EARLY WED. PYLE
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM PST
     MONDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 232257
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
256 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT IS SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS NW OREGON THIS
EVENING...AND SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
VALLEY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A WARMER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT STALLED
OVER SW WASHINGTON THIS MORNING HAS MOVED SOUTH INTO OREGON EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERATING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...THUNDER AND HEAVY RAIN
FOR NW OREGON. THE FRONT...AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WILL THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAKE IT DOWN TO THE SALEM AREA AROUND 4 PM AND
POSSIBLY EVEN FURTHER SOUTH THAN THAT...DOWN TO ALBANY AROUND 5 PM.
HOWEVER THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET...AND THINK THE
THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS WELL.

THE PRECIPITATION BAND WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE CANCELED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE
RAIN WILL DECREASE AS IT MOVES SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND AM NOT SURE
WHETHER ANY RAIN WILL MAKE IT TO EUGENE. IF SO...IT SHOULD BE BRIEF
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. EXPECT THE RAIN TO END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH CLEARING SKIES LEADING TO FOG IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS BY MONDAY
MORNING.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT FROM THE
SOUTH WILL MERGE WITH A COLDER FRONT TO THE NORTH OFFSHORE BEFORE
PUSHING ONSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARMER PORTION OF THE FRONT
WILL FIRST MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE COLDER FRONT
MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE WELL
ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE
NE PACIFIC. THE RAIN SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN COAST
RANGE...COAST...AND NORTHERN CASCADES BY TUESDAY EVENING. BESIDES A
FEW MORNING SHOWERS OVER SW WASHINGTON EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...MOST
OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY. SHOULD BE A RETURN OF VALLEY FOG WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...MOVING ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES OF WHEN THE
RAIN WILL START. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT ONSHORE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL DAYBREAK. EXPECT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER
THE WEEKEND AND WILL BRING A MUCH STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM. SNOW
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND COULD DROP TO THE PASSES. AS OF NOW...IT
LOOKS LIKE WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR
THOSE RETURNING AFTER THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED CONTINUE TO BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. DETAILS OF THE
IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM NEXT WEEKENDS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE
REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64
&&

.AVIATION...A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM JUST SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK THROUGH
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH AND WEAKEN FURTHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME...WITH
AREAS OF MVFR FROM TIME TO TIME UNDERNEATH THE HEAVIER RAIN BAND.
THERE IS ALSO STILL ISOLATED THUNDER BEING DETECTED ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT THIS THREAT SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING.

EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AND THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW SOME PATCHY MVFR OR IFR FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO FORM
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS INTO THE COAST BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z MON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING
FRONT MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE CIGS INTO MVFR THROUGH 00Z. SOME
CLEARING TONIGHT MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO FORM
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY MON MORNING. PYLE
&&

.MARINE...A WEAKENING FRONT HAS MOVED SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY...AND IS NOW LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
TILLAMOOK. THERE IS STILL ISOLATED THUNDER BEING DETECTED ALONG
THE FRONT...BUT EXPECT THIS THREAT TO END BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
HAS WEAKENED...AND ARE NOW WESTERLY AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KT.
THUS...WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS TO DROP OFF
AT 3 PM. EXPECT THE LULL IN THE WINDS TO LAST INTO EARLY MON. THEN
THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS TOMORROW. THE
LATEST FCST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT LOW END GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE A POSSIBILITY TOMORROW...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. DECIDED TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH STARTING AT 10 AM.

WINDS MAY STAY A BIT GUSTIER ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MID
WEEK BEFORE A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE
WATERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOW END GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS MIGHT
BE SQUEEZED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM AT SOME POINT...BUT THE SCENARIO
DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT PROMISING FOR A SOLID GALE FORCE OR HIGHER
WIND EVENT FOR THE WATERS.

SEAS HAVE COME UP JUST A BIT TODAY...AND ARE NOW AROUND 12 TO 14
FT. EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT AND MON. HOWEVER...EXPECT
SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT INTO EARLY WED. PYLE
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM PST
     MONDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 232231
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
231 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The north Idaho mountains will continue to receive snow this
evening, along with the Cascade crest near Stevens Pass. The
breezy winds will taper off overnight, and Monday will be a
relatively quiet and chilly day. More rain and heavy mountain snow
is expected Monday night into Tuesday. A breezy and wet but warm
Thanksgiving Day will give way to a colder weather pattern for the
holiday weekend with the mountains receiving several rounds of
snow. Snow levels will fall to valley floors by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Monday: A temporary break in the wet weather can be
expected starting tonight. A moist and progressive cold front will
push south and east of Spokane and through north Idaho early this
evening. Somewhat drier air will move into the region from the
northwest, although enough residual moisture and favorable
orographic flow will keep the threat of mountain showers. This is
especially true along the Cascade crest near Stevens Pass where
hints of a PVCZ may linger and then Central Idaho panhandle
mountains. The only concern for accumulating valley snow would be
north of Bonners Ferry, but the front will quickly exit this area
and allow the threat of snow to taper off. Meanwhile, either the
valley locations will be done with snow for the evening, or have
warmed up and should just experience rain this evening especially
across the central and southern Idaho panhandle. Breezy winds will
continue into the early evening behind the front with gusts to 30
mph. These winds will decrease overnight and become light by
Monday as surface pressure gradients relax. Skies will clear for a
good chunk of eastern Washington. This coupled with lighter winds,
wet ground and radiational cooling will lead to rather chilly
temperatures overnight into the 20s. These sub freezing lows and
frozen ground will also raise the risk of icy roadways by early
Monday morning for the commute. Meanwhile, boundary layer moisture
remains high overnight especially across the Palouse and
Spokane/Coeur d`Alene area. Given the southwest winds and light
precipitation today, there is a good chance of seeing stratus and
patchy fog develop late tonight into Monday morning. This threat
will expand into the northern and Panhandle valleys as well. By
Monday, the low cloud deck will gradually erode but daytime
temperatures will be inhibited by the cloud cover. In addition,
mid and high level clouds will be on the increase as the next
weather system approaches. /rfox.

Monday night through Thursday morning...No major changes for the
mid forecast time frame. High pressure will build in the eastern
Pacific just off the coast. This will put the Inland Northwest in
a northwest flow...before coming around to westerly Wednesday
night. This flow will tap in deep Pacific moisture tap to move
over the ridge and drop through the region through the period. We
are looking at an extended wet and unsettled period through early
Wednesday evening.

* Precipitation: You bet. Precipitable water by Tuesday morning
  will approach an inch which is around 270% of normal. Quite wet
  indeed. Isentropic up-glide will get established over Pac NW
  early Tuesday evening and remain in place through Wednesday
  afternoon. A pretty substantial rain shadow will develop in the
  lee of the Cascades keeping the lower east slopes and the deep
  basin from getting much more than a few hundredths to maybe a
  tenth of an inch. Outside of the basin the lower elevations and
  northern mountains look to get from .25 to .55 if not slightly
  more. The Panhandle mountains from .50 to .80 and the higher
  elevation of the Cascades from .50 to well over an inch near the
  crest.

* Snow: A much trickier questions. Southerly surface winds and
  strong warm advection is what will cause the lifting procees to
  squeeze out all the moisture. But this will also raise snow
  levels rapidly Tuesday night. For all of the urban areas snow
  levels will be high enough for precipitation as all rain. The
  tricky parts will be the mountain valleys. By the time the
  heaviest precipitation gets into these areas the snow should
  turn to rain. At this time snow accumulations for all of the
  mountain valleys remain below highlight criteria. An even
  trickier snow forecast will be for northeast WA and ID Panhandle
  mountains above 3-4k feet where the same processes will be at
  work, but it will take a little longer to warm. 24 hour snow
  amounts will range from 6-9 inches which would be the low end of
  an advisory. I will hold off on any highlights...first because
  we already have advisories out for the central Panhandle
  mountains and second there is still a little uncertainty on just
  how fast temperatures will increase.

* Temperatures and wind: As mentioned above there will be strong
  warm air advection and breezy/gusty south-southwest winds.
  Temperatures on Tuesday will increase with high from the mid 30s
  across the north to the high 40s/lower 50s across the south.
  Then add 4-5 more degrees for Wednesday putting highs well into
  the 40s and 50s. South-southwest of 10-25 mph with gusts 25-35
  mph will be common across the region. /Tobin


Thanksgiving Day through Sunday...Another day, another fight
between medium range models. Why can`t we just get along? The
00Z run of the ECMWF was showing an arctic front dropping south
across the forecast area Thanksgiving Day, leading to a much
colder forecast than the more consistent GFS. Surprise...the 12Z
EC is much closer to the GFS solution. There are still differences
in several of the details but the general consensus is for warmer
temperatures in southerly flow at least through Turkey Day. The
stream of shortwave energy riding over the forecast area will
bring some precipitation to the higher elevations of the Inland
Northwest but valley precip is one of those pesky details that
model are having a hard time deciding on, depending on the
location of the upper jet and associated areas of enhanced lift.
This jet will be directing a fetch of deep moisture into the
region with Pwats approaching 200 percent of normal. At least
there is agreement on liquid precip as snow levels will be quite
high. Breezy southerly winds will keep the atmosphere somewhat
mixed overnight, keeping low temperatures at or above freezing for
most of the valleys. The exceptions will be across the extreme
northern valleys where winds will start to shift to the north and
colder, drier air will infiltrate the valleys. For Friday and into
the weekend, models start to fight again. The general trend will
be a cooldown as an arctic front slides south but timing and
southern extent of the very cold air is still being debated.
/Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Radar trends and 15z HRRR model show most of the shower
activity today will develop just east of KGEG/KSFF with light
rain and snow showers spanning from extreme northeast Washington,
north Idaho. Strong low level warm advection has raised both temps
and dewpoints, making the precipitation type mainly rain at the
TAF sites. Airports north of the metro like Bonners Ferry and
Colville may see a slushy runway accumulations up to an inch will
be possible. Gusty westerly winds will develop from KEAT to KMWH
this afternoon and evening. Dry/downslope advection from the
west/northwest this evening should disperse stratus in the
evening, but fog and low stratus may crop up toward Monday
morning from KPUW to KGEG and KSFF. /rfox



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        27  37  33  42  39  47 /  10  10  50  60  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  28  38  34  40  40  45 /  20  10  60  80  60  70
Pullman        30  41  37  47  44  50 /  20  10  60  90  50  30
Lewiston       34  47  40  52  46  54 /  20  10  60  60  30  20
Colville       23  36  31  39  36  42 /  10  10  50  70  70  50
Sandpoint      28  36  31  38  36  41 /  40  10  70  80  80  80
Kellogg        28  36  33  37  37  40 /  70  10  80  90  80  70
Moses Lake     25  41  33  46  41  52 /  10   0  20  30  10  20
Wenatchee      31  40  35  44  42  49 /  10  10  30  50  30  30
Omak           24  35  30  38  36  43 /  10  10  30  50  70  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 232231
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
231 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The north Idaho mountains will continue to receive snow this
evening, along with the Cascade crest near Stevens Pass. The
breezy winds will taper off overnight, and Monday will be a
relatively quiet and chilly day. More rain and heavy mountain snow
is expected Monday night into Tuesday. A breezy and wet but warm
Thanksgiving Day will give way to a colder weather pattern for the
holiday weekend with the mountains receiving several rounds of
snow. Snow levels will fall to valley floors by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Monday: A temporary break in the wet weather can be
expected starting tonight. A moist and progressive cold front will
push south and east of Spokane and through north Idaho early this
evening. Somewhat drier air will move into the region from the
northwest, although enough residual moisture and favorable
orographic flow will keep the threat of mountain showers. This is
especially true along the Cascade crest near Stevens Pass where
hints of a PVCZ may linger and then Central Idaho panhandle
mountains. The only concern for accumulating valley snow would be
north of Bonners Ferry, but the front will quickly exit this area
and allow the threat of snow to taper off. Meanwhile, either the
valley locations will be done with snow for the evening, or have
warmed up and should just experience rain this evening especially
across the central and southern Idaho panhandle. Breezy winds will
continue into the early evening behind the front with gusts to 30
mph. These winds will decrease overnight and become light by
Monday as surface pressure gradients relax. Skies will clear for a
good chunk of eastern Washington. This coupled with lighter winds,
wet ground and radiational cooling will lead to rather chilly
temperatures overnight into the 20s. These sub freezing lows and
frozen ground will also raise the risk of icy roadways by early
Monday morning for the commute. Meanwhile, boundary layer moisture
remains high overnight especially across the Palouse and
Spokane/Coeur d`Alene area. Given the southwest winds and light
precipitation today, there is a good chance of seeing stratus and
patchy fog develop late tonight into Monday morning. This threat
will expand into the northern and Panhandle valleys as well. By
Monday, the low cloud deck will gradually erode but daytime
temperatures will be inhibited by the cloud cover. In addition,
mid and high level clouds will be on the increase as the next
weather system approaches. /rfox.

Monday night through Thursday morning...No major changes for the
mid forecast time frame. High pressure will build in the eastern
Pacific just off the coast. This will put the Inland Northwest in
a northwest flow...before coming around to westerly Wednesday
night. This flow will tap in deep Pacific moisture tap to move
over the ridge and drop through the region through the period. We
are looking at an extended wet and unsettled period through early
Wednesday evening.

* Precipitation: You bet. Precipitable water by Tuesday morning
  will approach an inch which is around 270% of normal. Quite wet
  indeed. Isentropic up-glide will get established over Pac NW
  early Tuesday evening and remain in place through Wednesday
  afternoon. A pretty substantial rain shadow will develop in the
  lee of the Cascades keeping the lower east slopes and the deep
  basin from getting much more than a few hundredths to maybe a
  tenth of an inch. Outside of the basin the lower elevations and
  northern mountains look to get from .25 to .55 if not slightly
  more. The Panhandle mountains from .50 to .80 and the higher
  elevation of the Cascades from .50 to well over an inch near the
  crest.

* Snow: A much trickier questions. Southerly surface winds and
  strong warm advection is what will cause the lifting procees to
  squeeze out all the moisture. But this will also raise snow
  levels rapidly Tuesday night. For all of the urban areas snow
  levels will be high enough for precipitation as all rain. The
  tricky parts will be the mountain valleys. By the time the
  heaviest precipitation gets into these areas the snow should
  turn to rain. At this time snow accumulations for all of the
  mountain valleys remain below highlight criteria. An even
  trickier snow forecast will be for northeast WA and ID Panhandle
  mountains above 3-4k feet where the same processes will be at
  work, but it will take a little longer to warm. 24 hour snow
  amounts will range from 6-9 inches which would be the low end of
  an advisory. I will hold off on any highlights...first because
  we already have advisories out for the central Panhandle
  mountains and second there is still a little uncertainty on just
  how fast temperatures will increase.

* Temperatures and wind: As mentioned above there will be strong
  warm air advection and breezy/gusty south-southwest winds.
  Temperatures on Tuesday will increase with high from the mid 30s
  across the north to the high 40s/lower 50s across the south.
  Then add 4-5 more degrees for Wednesday putting highs well into
  the 40s and 50s. South-southwest of 10-25 mph with gusts 25-35
  mph will be common across the region. /Tobin


Thanksgiving Day through Sunday...Another day, another fight
between medium range models. Why can`t we just get along? The
00Z run of the ECMWF was showing an arctic front dropping south
across the forecast area Thanksgiving Day, leading to a much
colder forecast than the more consistent GFS. Surprise...the 12Z
EC is much closer to the GFS solution. There are still differences
in several of the details but the general consensus is for warmer
temperatures in southerly flow at least through Turkey Day. The
stream of shortwave energy riding over the forecast area will
bring some precipitation to the higher elevations of the Inland
Northwest but valley precip is one of those pesky details that
model are having a hard time deciding on, depending on the
location of the upper jet and associated areas of enhanced lift.
This jet will be directing a fetch of deep moisture into the
region with Pwats approaching 200 percent of normal. At least
there is agreement on liquid precip as snow levels will be quite
high. Breezy southerly winds will keep the atmosphere somewhat
mixed overnight, keeping low temperatures at or above freezing for
most of the valleys. The exceptions will be across the extreme
northern valleys where winds will start to shift to the north and
colder, drier air will infiltrate the valleys. For Friday and into
the weekend, models start to fight again. The general trend will
be a cooldown as an arctic front slides south but timing and
southern extent of the very cold air is still being debated.
/Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Radar trends and 15z HRRR model show most of the shower
activity today will develop just east of KGEG/KSFF with light
rain and snow showers spanning from extreme northeast Washington,
north Idaho. Strong low level warm advection has raised both temps
and dewpoints, making the precipitation type mainly rain at the
TAF sites. Airports north of the metro like Bonners Ferry and
Colville may see a slushy runway accumulations up to an inch will
be possible. Gusty westerly winds will develop from KEAT to KMWH
this afternoon and evening. Dry/downslope advection from the
west/northwest this evening should disperse stratus in the
evening, but fog and low stratus may crop up toward Monday
morning from KPUW to KGEG and KSFF. /rfox



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        27  37  33  42  39  47 /  10  10  50  60  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  28  38  34  40  40  45 /  20  10  60  80  60  70
Pullman        30  41  37  47  44  50 /  20  10  60  90  50  30
Lewiston       34  47  40  52  46  54 /  20  10  60  60  30  20
Colville       23  36  31  39  36  42 /  10  10  50  70  70  50
Sandpoint      28  36  31  38  36  41 /  40  10  70  80  80  80
Kellogg        28  36  33  37  37  40 /  70  10  80  90  80  70
Moses Lake     25  41  33  46  41  52 /  10   0  20  30  10  20
Wenatchee      31  40  35  44  42  49 /  10  10  30  50  30  30
Omak           24  35  30  38  36  43 /  10  10  30  50  70  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 231951
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1151 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The mountains will receive another round of accumulating snow
this afternoon and evening. Most of the lower elevations will
experience light rain, but some wet snow is possible in the far
northern valleys. Monday will be a relatively quiet and chilly
day. More rain and heavy mountain snow is expected Monday night
into Tuesday. A breezy and wet weather pattern will persist for
much of the week with the mountains receiving several rounds of
snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated the forecast to adjust temperatures and precipitation
coverage across the region. Temperatures warming with the
rain/snow line in the valleys stretching from Twisp, Republic, to
Colville to Bonners Ferry. Satellite shows the dry slot moving
across the northern Cascades, and should see the snow taper off in
the Methow valley this afternoon. Radar activity has enhanced over
northeast Washington and north Idaho and should continue through
mid afternoon. /rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Radar trends and 15z HRRR model show most of the shower
activity today will develop just east of KGEG/KSFF with light
rain and snow showers spanning from extreme northeast Washington,
north Idaho. Strong low level warm advection has raised both temps
and dewpoints, making the precipitation type mainly rain at the
TAF sites. Airports north of the metro like Bonners Ferry and
Colville may see a slushy runway accumulations up to an inch will
be possible. Gusty westerly winds will develop from KEAT to KMWH
this afternoon and evening. Dry/downslope advection from the
west/northwest this evening should disperse stratus in the
evening, but fog and low stratus may crop up toward Monday
morning from KPUW to KGEG and KSFF. /rfox


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  27  37  32  43  38 /  70  10  10  50  60  50
Coeur d`Alene  39  28  38  33  41  39 / 100  30  10  60  80  60
Pullman        45  30  41  36  46  42 /  80  60  10  60  90  50
Lewiston       49  34  47  39  50  44 /  50  60  10  60  60  30
Colville       35  23  36  30  39  36 /  70  10  10  50  70  70
Sandpoint      37  28  36  30  39  37 / 100  40  10  70  80  80
Kellogg        37  28  36  33  38  38 / 100  70  10  80  90  80
Moses Lake     48  25  41  32  48  40 /  20  10   0  20  30  10
Wenatchee      48  31  40  34  46  41 /  20  10  10  30  50  30
Omak           38  24  35  30  41  36 /  30  10  10  30  50  70

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 231951
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1151 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The mountains will receive another round of accumulating snow
this afternoon and evening. Most of the lower elevations will
experience light rain, but some wet snow is possible in the far
northern valleys. Monday will be a relatively quiet and chilly
day. More rain and heavy mountain snow is expected Monday night
into Tuesday. A breezy and wet weather pattern will persist for
much of the week with the mountains receiving several rounds of
snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated the forecast to adjust temperatures and precipitation
coverage across the region. Temperatures warming with the
rain/snow line in the valleys stretching from Twisp, Republic, to
Colville to Bonners Ferry. Satellite shows the dry slot moving
across the northern Cascades, and should see the snow taper off in
the Methow valley this afternoon. Radar activity has enhanced over
northeast Washington and north Idaho and should continue through
mid afternoon. /rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Radar trends and 15z HRRR model show most of the shower
activity today will develop just east of KGEG/KSFF with light
rain and snow showers spanning from extreme northeast Washington,
north Idaho. Strong low level warm advection has raised both temps
and dewpoints, making the precipitation type mainly rain at the
TAF sites. Airports north of the metro like Bonners Ferry and
Colville may see a slushy runway accumulations up to an inch will
be possible. Gusty westerly winds will develop from KEAT to KMWH
this afternoon and evening. Dry/downslope advection from the
west/northwest this evening should disperse stratus in the
evening, but fog and low stratus may crop up toward Monday
morning from KPUW to KGEG and KSFF. /rfox


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  27  37  32  43  38 /  70  10  10  50  60  50
Coeur d`Alene  39  28  38  33  41  39 / 100  30  10  60  80  60
Pullman        45  30  41  36  46  42 /  80  60  10  60  90  50
Lewiston       49  34  47  39  50  44 /  50  60  10  60  60  30
Colville       35  23  36  30  39  36 /  70  10  10  50  70  70
Sandpoint      37  28  36  30  39  37 / 100  40  10  70  80  80
Kellogg        37  28  36  33  38  38 / 100  70  10  80  90  80
Moses Lake     48  25  41  32  48  40 /  20  10   0  20  30  10
Wenatchee      48  31  40  34  46  41 /  20  10  10  30  50  30
Omak           38  24  35  30  41  36 /  30  10  10  30  50  70

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 231951
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1151 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The mountains will receive another round of accumulating snow
this afternoon and evening. Most of the lower elevations will
experience light rain, but some wet snow is possible in the far
northern valleys. Monday will be a relatively quiet and chilly
day. More rain and heavy mountain snow is expected Monday night
into Tuesday. A breezy and wet weather pattern will persist for
much of the week with the mountains receiving several rounds of
snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated the forecast to adjust temperatures and precipitation
coverage across the region. Temperatures warming with the
rain/snow line in the valleys stretching from Twisp, Republic, to
Colville to Bonners Ferry. Satellite shows the dry slot moving
across the northern Cascades, and should see the snow taper off in
the Methow valley this afternoon. Radar activity has enhanced over
northeast Washington and north Idaho and should continue through
mid afternoon. /rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Radar trends and 15z HRRR model show most of the shower
activity today will develop just east of KGEG/KSFF with light
rain and snow showers spanning from extreme northeast Washington,
north Idaho. Strong low level warm advection has raised both temps
and dewpoints, making the precipitation type mainly rain at the
TAF sites. Airports north of the metro like Bonners Ferry and
Colville may see a slushy runway accumulations up to an inch will
be possible. Gusty westerly winds will develop from KEAT to KMWH
this afternoon and evening. Dry/downslope advection from the
west/northwest this evening should disperse stratus in the
evening, but fog and low stratus may crop up toward Monday
morning from KPUW to KGEG and KSFF. /rfox


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  27  37  32  43  38 /  70  10  10  50  60  50
Coeur d`Alene  39  28  38  33  41  39 / 100  30  10  60  80  60
Pullman        45  30  41  36  46  42 /  80  60  10  60  90  50
Lewiston       49  34  47  39  50  44 /  50  60  10  60  60  30
Colville       35  23  36  30  39  36 /  70  10  10  50  70  70
Sandpoint      37  28  36  30  39  37 / 100  40  10  70  80  80
Kellogg        37  28  36  33  38  38 / 100  70  10  80  90  80
Moses Lake     48  25  41  32  48  40 /  20  10   0  20  30  10
Wenatchee      48  31  40  34  46  41 /  20  10  10  30  50  30
Omak           38  24  35  30  41  36 /  30  10  10  30  50  70

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 231951
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1151 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The mountains will receive another round of accumulating snow
this afternoon and evening. Most of the lower elevations will
experience light rain, but some wet snow is possible in the far
northern valleys. Monday will be a relatively quiet and chilly
day. More rain and heavy mountain snow is expected Monday night
into Tuesday. A breezy and wet weather pattern will persist for
much of the week with the mountains receiving several rounds of
snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated the forecast to adjust temperatures and precipitation
coverage across the region. Temperatures warming with the
rain/snow line in the valleys stretching from Twisp, Republic, to
Colville to Bonners Ferry. Satellite shows the dry slot moving
across the northern Cascades, and should see the snow taper off in
the Methow valley this afternoon. Radar activity has enhanced over
northeast Washington and north Idaho and should continue through
mid afternoon. /rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Radar trends and 15z HRRR model show most of the shower
activity today will develop just east of KGEG/KSFF with light
rain and snow showers spanning from extreme northeast Washington,
north Idaho. Strong low level warm advection has raised both temps
and dewpoints, making the precipitation type mainly rain at the
TAF sites. Airports north of the metro like Bonners Ferry and
Colville may see a slushy runway accumulations up to an inch will
be possible. Gusty westerly winds will develop from KEAT to KMWH
this afternoon and evening. Dry/downslope advection from the
west/northwest this evening should disperse stratus in the
evening, but fog and low stratus may crop up toward Monday
morning from KPUW to KGEG and KSFF. /rfox


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  27  37  32  43  38 /  70  10  10  50  60  50
Coeur d`Alene  39  28  38  33  41  39 / 100  30  10  60  80  60
Pullman        45  30  41  36  46  42 /  80  60  10  60  90  50
Lewiston       49  34  47  39  50  44 /  50  60  10  60  60  30
Colville       35  23  36  30  39  36 /  70  10  10  50  70  70
Sandpoint      37  28  36  30  39  37 / 100  40  10  70  80  80
Kellogg        37  28  36  33  38  38 / 100  70  10  80  90  80
Moses Lake     48  25  41  32  48  40 /  20  10   0  20  30  10
Wenatchee      48  31  40  34  46  41 /  20  10  10  30  50  30
Omak           38  24  35  30  41  36 /  30  10  10  30  50  70

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 231813
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1012 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER SW WASHINGTON AND
NW OREGON THROUGH THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SLOW MOVING FRONT THAT WILL STALL OVER NW WASHINGTON BEFORE FALLING
A PART OVER NW OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IS
EXPECTED FOR WASHINGTON THIS MORNING WITH LESS ACCUMULATIONS FOR
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO CALIFORNIA AND OREGON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK ENOUGH FOR SYSTEMS TO CLIP OUR NORTHERN ZONES WITH OCCASIONAL
WET WEATHER. VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY BUILD IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH FOG POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE PERSISTENT
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ORGANIZED FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR
THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...THE LONE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. A FEW CELLS
ARE SPROUTING UP AHEAD OF THIS LINE. ONE IN PARTICULAR...JUST OFF OF
LONG BEACH WA HAD STRONG ROTATION SIGNATURES INDICATIVE OF A TORNADO
AND A TORNADO WARNING WAS ISSUED AS THE STORM TRACKED INLAND. THE
STORM FINALLY WEAKENED OVER NASELLE WA. WE HAVE RECEIVED NO
OBSERVATIONS NEAR THIS STORM TO VERIFY OR DENY THE PRESENCE OF A
TORNADO. ONE SPOTTER JUST NORTH OF LONG BEACH HAD PEA-SIZE HAIL AND
LIGHTNING AND DID NOT SEE THE ROTATION. HOWEVER...THE BEST VIEWING OF
ANY ROTATION WOULD BE SOUTH OF THE STORM...AND SOUTH OF LONG BEACH.
VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE A THREAT FOR WEAKLY
ORGANIZED STORMS THROUGH NOON TODAY. MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
OVER THE WATERS...BUT THEY MAY OCCASIONAL MOVE ONSHORE. WE WILL BE
MONITORING RADAR CLOSELY THIS MORNING.

THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED .3 TO .5 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST 3 HOURS
NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONVECTIVE BAND. HOWEVER STILL THINK THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES
WILL SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 4000 FEET AND HAVE NOT MADE
ANY CHANGES TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THE UPDATE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT COOL AND RAINY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE REGION FAIRLY DRY BUT CLOUDY. BUT
THE THREAT FOR VALLEY FOG INCREASES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COAST. MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A FEW DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE
AND BRINGING SOME PRECIP MAINLY TO THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST ZONES BY
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT THIS PATTERN OF NORTHERN SHOWERS WITH SOUTHERN
VALLEY AND COASTAL FOG TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TJ/27

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS ARE
ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY. BUT ONCE
WE GET TO THANKSGIVING MORNING...MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY CONCERNING THE
NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION THANKSGIVING DAY.
THE 06Z GFS SHOWS A RATHER WELL-ORGANIZED FRONTAL BAND REACHING THE
SW WASHINGTON/NW OREGON COAST IN THE MORNING...WITH RAIN SPREADING
INLAND BY THE AFTERNOON...RIGHT IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING DINNER. WILL
HAVE TO SEE WHAT THE 12Z ECMWF DOES WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WHETHER OR
NOT IT MAINTAINS ITS LIGHTER RAIN/RIDGY SOLUTION. A MUCH
STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH
COULD POSE A THREAT TO TRAVELERS RETURNING AFTER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY. DETAILS AT THIS POINT ARE STILL UNKNOWN AND WILL BE REFINED
WITH FUTURE UPDATES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. /64/27

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY VFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. A FRONT ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IS PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. THE
FRONT IS FCST TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES INTO NORTHWEST OREGON LATER
THIS MORNING...BUT IT MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS
AT KAST LATER THIS MORNING AND THE KPDX METRO TAF SITES TOWARDS
MIDDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST TOWARDS 12Z
MONDAY FOR THE PORTLAND METRO TAF SITES. FARTHER SOUTH WHERE
CLEARING THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR...IFR
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AT KEUG...KSLE AND EVEN KHIO TOWARDS 12Z
MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD
TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH A DYING FRONT MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE CIGS INTO MVFR AROUND
MIDDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THESE CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST WELL
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...OR PERHAPS DETERIORATE INTO HIGH END IFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THESE DETAILS IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
PYLE/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A SLOW MOVING FRONT BROUGHT A BAND OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE W WASHINGTON COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING.
BASED ON SEVERAL REPORTS OF WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WITH SOME OF
THESE STORMS FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST...DECIDED TO
ISSUE A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR THE WATERS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
COLUMBIA RIVER BAR. EXPECT PERIODIC GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KT ALONG
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN WINDS DROP OFF
CONSIDERABLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. SEAS IN
THE 12 TO 13 FT RANGE AT CURRENT WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE MID TEENS
LATER TODAY BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE WATERS LATE MONDAY...BUT ASIDE
FROM SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT. WINDS MAY STAY A BIT GUSTIER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS EARLY TO MID WEEK BEFORE A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE WATERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOW END GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS MIGHT BE SQUEEZED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM AT SOME POINT...BUT
THE SCENARIO DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT PROMISING FOR A SOLID GALE
FORCE OR HIGHER WIND EVENT FOR THE WATERS. PYLE/NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR

     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
     PST MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 231813
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1012 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER SW WASHINGTON AND
NW OREGON THROUGH THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SLOW MOVING FRONT THAT WILL STALL OVER NW WASHINGTON BEFORE FALLING
A PART OVER NW OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IS
EXPECTED FOR WASHINGTON THIS MORNING WITH LESS ACCUMULATIONS FOR
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO CALIFORNIA AND OREGON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK ENOUGH FOR SYSTEMS TO CLIP OUR NORTHERN ZONES WITH OCCASIONAL
WET WEATHER. VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY BUILD IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH FOG POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE PERSISTENT
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ORGANIZED FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR
THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...THE LONE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. A FEW CELLS
ARE SPROUTING UP AHEAD OF THIS LINE. ONE IN PARTICULAR...JUST OFF OF
LONG BEACH WA HAD STRONG ROTATION SIGNATURES INDICATIVE OF A TORNADO
AND A TORNADO WARNING WAS ISSUED AS THE STORM TRACKED INLAND. THE
STORM FINALLY WEAKENED OVER NASELLE WA. WE HAVE RECEIVED NO
OBSERVATIONS NEAR THIS STORM TO VERIFY OR DENY THE PRESENCE OF A
TORNADO. ONE SPOTTER JUST NORTH OF LONG BEACH HAD PEA-SIZE HAIL AND
LIGHTNING AND DID NOT SEE THE ROTATION. HOWEVER...THE BEST VIEWING OF
ANY ROTATION WOULD BE SOUTH OF THE STORM...AND SOUTH OF LONG BEACH.
VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE A THREAT FOR WEAKLY
ORGANIZED STORMS THROUGH NOON TODAY. MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
OVER THE WATERS...BUT THEY MAY OCCASIONAL MOVE ONSHORE. WE WILL BE
MONITORING RADAR CLOSELY THIS MORNING.

THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED .3 TO .5 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST 3 HOURS
NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONVECTIVE BAND. HOWEVER STILL THINK THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES
WILL SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 4000 FEET AND HAVE NOT MADE
ANY CHANGES TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THE UPDATE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT COOL AND RAINY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE REGION FAIRLY DRY BUT CLOUDY. BUT
THE THREAT FOR VALLEY FOG INCREASES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COAST. MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A FEW DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE
AND BRINGING SOME PRECIP MAINLY TO THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST ZONES BY
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT THIS PATTERN OF NORTHERN SHOWERS WITH SOUTHERN
VALLEY AND COASTAL FOG TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TJ/27

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS ARE
ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY. BUT ONCE
WE GET TO THANKSGIVING MORNING...MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY CONCERNING THE
NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION THANKSGIVING DAY.
THE 06Z GFS SHOWS A RATHER WELL-ORGANIZED FRONTAL BAND REACHING THE
SW WASHINGTON/NW OREGON COAST IN THE MORNING...WITH RAIN SPREADING
INLAND BY THE AFTERNOON...RIGHT IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING DINNER. WILL
HAVE TO SEE WHAT THE 12Z ECMWF DOES WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WHETHER OR
NOT IT MAINTAINS ITS LIGHTER RAIN/RIDGY SOLUTION. A MUCH
STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH
COULD POSE A THREAT TO TRAVELERS RETURNING AFTER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY. DETAILS AT THIS POINT ARE STILL UNKNOWN AND WILL BE REFINED
WITH FUTURE UPDATES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. /64/27

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY VFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. A FRONT ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IS PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. THE
FRONT IS FCST TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES INTO NORTHWEST OREGON LATER
THIS MORNING...BUT IT MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS
AT KAST LATER THIS MORNING AND THE KPDX METRO TAF SITES TOWARDS
MIDDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST TOWARDS 12Z
MONDAY FOR THE PORTLAND METRO TAF SITES. FARTHER SOUTH WHERE
CLEARING THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR...IFR
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AT KEUG...KSLE AND EVEN KHIO TOWARDS 12Z
MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD
TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH A DYING FRONT MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE CIGS INTO MVFR AROUND
MIDDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THESE CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST WELL
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...OR PERHAPS DETERIORATE INTO HIGH END IFR
CONDITIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THESE DETAILS IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
PYLE/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A SLOW MOVING FRONT BROUGHT A BAND OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE W WASHINGTON COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING.
BASED ON SEVERAL REPORTS OF WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WITH SOME OF
THESE STORMS FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST...DECIDED TO
ISSUE A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR THE WATERS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
COLUMBIA RIVER BAR. EXPECT PERIODIC GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KT ALONG
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN WINDS DROP OFF
CONSIDERABLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. SEAS IN
THE 12 TO 13 FT RANGE AT CURRENT WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE MID TEENS
LATER TODAY BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE WATERS LATE MONDAY...BUT ASIDE
FROM SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT. WINDS MAY STAY A BIT GUSTIER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS EARLY TO MID WEEK BEFORE A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE WATERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOW END GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS MIGHT BE SQUEEZED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM AT SOME POINT...BUT
THE SCENARIO DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT PROMISING FOR A SOLID GALE
FORCE OR HIGHER WIND EVENT FOR THE WATERS. PYLE/NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR

     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
     PST MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 231738
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
938 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The mountains will receive another round of accumulating snow
this afternoon and evening. Most of the lower elevations will
experience light rain, but some wet snow is possible in the far
northern valleys. Monday will be a relatively quiet and chilly
day. More rain and heavy mountain snow is expected Monday night
into Tuesday. A breezy and wet weather pattern will persist for
much of the week with the mountains receiving several rounds of
snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated the forecast on snow levels and temperatures this morning.
The incoming weather system seems to have slowed slightly,
meanwhile overnight lows were not as cool due to the thicking
clouds. The delayed arrival of the the precipitation has allowed
both temps and dewpoints to rise slightly and makes the
precipitation type a little tricky. But along and south of a line
south of Coeur d`Alene, Spokane, Ephrata and Wenatchee, expect
mostly rain as wetbulbs are above freezing. Expect snow at the
onset north of this line with accumulations of 1 to 2 inches.
Although increased southerly flow will allow valley temperatures
to rise this afternoon and lead to valley rain and mountain snow
across the north. /rfox

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Radar trends and 15z HRRR model show most of the shower
activity today will develop just east of KGEG/KSFF with light
rain and snow showers spanning from extreme northeast Washington,
north Idaho. Strong low level warm advection has raised both temps
and dewpoints, making the precipitation type mainly rain at the
TAF sites. Airports north of the metro like Bonners Ferry and
Colville may see a slushy runway accumulations up to an inch will
be possible. Gusty westerly winds will develop from KEAT to KMWH
this afternoon and evening. Dry/downslope advection from the
west/northwest this evening should disperse stratus in the
evening, but fog and low stratus may crop up toward Monday
morning from KPUW to KGEG and KSFF. /rfox

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  27  36  32  43  38 /  90  20  10  50  60  40
Coeur d`Alene  38  28  37  33  41  39 / 100  40  10  60  80  60
Pullman        41  29  40  36  46  42 /  80  60  10  60  70  30
Lewiston       50  33  47  39  50  44 /  50  60  10  60  60  20
Colville       36  25  35  30  39  36 /  90  10  10  60  60  50
Sandpoint      36  29  36  30  39  37 / 100  40  10  70  80  80
Kellogg        40  28  36  33  38  38 / 100  80  10  70  90  70
Moses Lake     46  25  40  32  48  40 /  20  10  10  20  20  10
Wenatchee      48  29  37  34  46  41 /  10  10  10  20  30  20
Omak           37  22  33  30  41  36 /  30  10  10  30  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 231738
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
938 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The mountains will receive another round of accumulating snow
this afternoon and evening. Most of the lower elevations will
experience light rain, but some wet snow is possible in the far
northern valleys. Monday will be a relatively quiet and chilly
day. More rain and heavy mountain snow is expected Monday night
into Tuesday. A breezy and wet weather pattern will persist for
much of the week with the mountains receiving several rounds of
snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated the forecast on snow levels and temperatures this morning.
The incoming weather system seems to have slowed slightly,
meanwhile overnight lows were not as cool due to the thicking
clouds. The delayed arrival of the the precipitation has allowed
both temps and dewpoints to rise slightly and makes the
precipitation type a little tricky. But along and south of a line
south of Coeur d`Alene, Spokane, Ephrata and Wenatchee, expect
mostly rain as wetbulbs are above freezing. Expect snow at the
onset north of this line with accumulations of 1 to 2 inches.
Although increased southerly flow will allow valley temperatures
to rise this afternoon and lead to valley rain and mountain snow
across the north. /rfox

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Radar trends and 15z HRRR model show most of the shower
activity today will develop just east of KGEG/KSFF with light
rain and snow showers spanning from extreme northeast Washington,
north Idaho. Strong low level warm advection has raised both temps
and dewpoints, making the precipitation type mainly rain at the
TAF sites. Airports north of the metro like Bonners Ferry and
Colville may see a slushy runway accumulations up to an inch will
be possible. Gusty westerly winds will develop from KEAT to KMWH
this afternoon and evening. Dry/downslope advection from the
west/northwest this evening should disperse stratus in the
evening, but fog and low stratus may crop up toward Monday
morning from KPUW to KGEG and KSFF. /rfox

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  27  36  32  43  38 /  90  20  10  50  60  40
Coeur d`Alene  38  28  37  33  41  39 / 100  40  10  60  80  60
Pullman        41  29  40  36  46  42 /  80  60  10  60  70  30
Lewiston       50  33  47  39  50  44 /  50  60  10  60  60  20
Colville       36  25  35  30  39  36 /  90  10  10  60  60  50
Sandpoint      36  29  36  30  39  37 / 100  40  10  70  80  80
Kellogg        40  28  36  33  38  38 / 100  80  10  70  90  70
Moses Lake     46  25  40  32  48  40 /  20  10  10  20  20  10
Wenatchee      48  29  37  34  46  41 /  10  10  10  20  30  20
Omak           37  22  33  30  41  36 /  30  10  10  30  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 231738
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
938 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The mountains will receive another round of accumulating snow
this afternoon and evening. Most of the lower elevations will
experience light rain, but some wet snow is possible in the far
northern valleys. Monday will be a relatively quiet and chilly
day. More rain and heavy mountain snow is expected Monday night
into Tuesday. A breezy and wet weather pattern will persist for
much of the week with the mountains receiving several rounds of
snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated the forecast on snow levels and temperatures this morning.
The incoming weather system seems to have slowed slightly,
meanwhile overnight lows were not as cool due to the thicking
clouds. The delayed arrival of the the precipitation has allowed
both temps and dewpoints to rise slightly and makes the
precipitation type a little tricky. But along and south of a line
south of Coeur d`Alene, Spokane, Ephrata and Wenatchee, expect
mostly rain as wetbulbs are above freezing. Expect snow at the
onset north of this line with accumulations of 1 to 2 inches.
Although increased southerly flow will allow valley temperatures
to rise this afternoon and lead to valley rain and mountain snow
across the north. /rfox

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Radar trends and 15z HRRR model show most of the shower
activity today will develop just east of KGEG/KSFF with light
rain and snow showers spanning from extreme northeast Washington,
north Idaho. Strong low level warm advection has raised both temps
and dewpoints, making the precipitation type mainly rain at the
TAF sites. Airports north of the metro like Bonners Ferry and
Colville may see a slushy runway accumulations up to an inch will
be possible. Gusty westerly winds will develop from KEAT to KMWH
this afternoon and evening. Dry/downslope advection from the
west/northwest this evening should disperse stratus in the
evening, but fog and low stratus may crop up toward Monday
morning from KPUW to KGEG and KSFF. /rfox

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  27  36  32  43  38 /  90  20  10  50  60  40
Coeur d`Alene  38  28  37  33  41  39 / 100  40  10  60  80  60
Pullman        41  29  40  36  46  42 /  80  60  10  60  70  30
Lewiston       50  33  47  39  50  44 /  50  60  10  60  60  20
Colville       36  25  35  30  39  36 /  90  10  10  60  60  50
Sandpoint      36  29  36  30  39  37 / 100  40  10  70  80  80
Kellogg        40  28  36  33  38  38 / 100  80  10  70  90  70
Moses Lake     46  25  40  32  48  40 /  20  10  10  20  20  10
Wenatchee      48  29  37  34  46  41 /  10  10  10  20  30  20
Omak           37  22  33  30  41  36 /  30  10  10  30  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 231738
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
938 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The mountains will receive another round of accumulating snow
this afternoon and evening. Most of the lower elevations will
experience light rain, but some wet snow is possible in the far
northern valleys. Monday will be a relatively quiet and chilly
day. More rain and heavy mountain snow is expected Monday night
into Tuesday. A breezy and wet weather pattern will persist for
much of the week with the mountains receiving several rounds of
snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated the forecast on snow levels and temperatures this morning.
The incoming weather system seems to have slowed slightly,
meanwhile overnight lows were not as cool due to the thicking
clouds. The delayed arrival of the the precipitation has allowed
both temps and dewpoints to rise slightly and makes the
precipitation type a little tricky. But along and south of a line
south of Coeur d`Alene, Spokane, Ephrata and Wenatchee, expect
mostly rain as wetbulbs are above freezing. Expect snow at the
onset north of this line with accumulations of 1 to 2 inches.
Although increased southerly flow will allow valley temperatures
to rise this afternoon and lead to valley rain and mountain snow
across the north. /rfox

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Radar trends and 15z HRRR model show most of the shower
activity today will develop just east of KGEG/KSFF with light
rain and snow showers spanning from extreme northeast Washington,
north Idaho. Strong low level warm advection has raised both temps
and dewpoints, making the precipitation type mainly rain at the
TAF sites. Airports north of the metro like Bonners Ferry and
Colville may see a slushy runway accumulations up to an inch will
be possible. Gusty westerly winds will develop from KEAT to KMWH
this afternoon and evening. Dry/downslope advection from the
west/northwest this evening should disperse stratus in the
evening, but fog and low stratus may crop up toward Monday
morning from KPUW to KGEG and KSFF. /rfox

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  27  36  32  43  38 /  90  20  10  50  60  40
Coeur d`Alene  38  28  37  33  41  39 / 100  40  10  60  80  60
Pullman        41  29  40  36  46  42 /  80  60  10  60  70  30
Lewiston       50  33  47  39  50  44 /  50  60  10  60  60  20
Colville       36  25  35  30  39  36 /  90  10  10  60  60  50
Sandpoint      36  29  36  30  39  37 / 100  40  10  70  80  80
Kellogg        40  28  36  33  38  38 / 100  80  10  70  90  70
Moses Lake     46  25  40  32  48  40 /  20  10  10  20  20  10
Wenatchee      48  29  37  34  46  41 /  10  10  10  20  30  20
Omak           37  22  33  30  41  36 /  30  10  10  30  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 231726
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
920 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WAS OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS MORNING.
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT. PERIODS
OF HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. AFTER A BREAK IN
THE WEATHER LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...A WARM FRONT WILL
REACH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE WET WEATHER TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A FRONT GAVE SOME HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF WRN WA
AROUND DAYBREAK. AT 9AM THE FRONT IS OVER SW WA WITH SOME HEAVY
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A
BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE SNOHOMISH COUNTY LINE AT
9AM. SNOW WILL FALL IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE PORTLAND TO BELLINGHAM
GRADIENT IS +9MB FOR SOME BLUSTERY WEATHER...THE GRADIENT WILL
WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
WRN WA AND ORE. A DIRTY UPPER RIDGE AND WARM FRONT MOVING OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL POKE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON LATER MON AND
TUE. THIS WILL MEAN PERIODS OF RAIN WITH A HIGHER SNOW LEVELS IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS NOT VERY HIGH. THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE WILL PROBABLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...LEAVING WESTERN WASHINGTON NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF A
MOIST SOUTHWEST FETCH AND A COOLER DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN
CANADA. EARLIER MODEL RUNS GENERALLY FAVORED THE IDEA THAT THE DRIER
NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD PREVAIL THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. MORE
RECENT RUNS...ESPECIALLY OF THE GFS...SHOW THE WETTER PATTERN
DEVELOPING. WE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE
FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT WE HAVE DECIDED TO STAND PATE ON THE FORECAST
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.   MCDONNAL

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A SORT OF MENTAL BLEND OF THE MODELS SOLUTIONS THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF RIVER FLOODING FOR THE RIVERS
COMING OUT OF THE NORTH CASCADES BY WEDNESDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
FOCUS RATHER HEAVY RAIN IN THE NORTH CASCADES WHILE THE 12Z NAM
SURPRISINGLY ONLY SNOWS A 48HR TOTAL OF ABOUT THREE INCHES OF RAIN
SPREAD OUT ALONG ALL OF THE CASCADE RANGE. I HAVE NOT SEEN THE ECMWF
YET...BUT WILL TAKE THAT INTO CONSIDERATION FOR A HYDRO OUTLOOK
TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG WEST FLOW ALOFT MORNING...BECOMING MODERATE NW
FLOW THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. AIR MASS MOIST AND UNSTABLE...BUT THE
MOIST LAYER WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW TONIGHT.

ACTIVE LINE OF EAST-WEST ORIENTED THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN SPREADING
ONTO THE COAST SOUTH OF GRAYS HARBOR FOR THE PAST 2 HOURS...WITH
SOME INDIVIDUAL CELLS SHOWING SIGNS OF ROTATION AND SIGNIFICANT
ORGANIZATION...IE THESE ARE STRONG STORMS. MAIN IMPACT WITHIN OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN LEWIS COUNTY FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...A FEW BAND OF SHOWERS FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT FROM EARLIER
THIS MORNING. TREND WILL BE TOWARD DECREASING SHOWER COVERAGE AND
DECREASING WIND FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

KSEA...A BAND OF SHOWERS APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH 19Z...WITH THE
OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF A SINGLE LIGHTNING STRIKE. THEN A DECREASING
TREND ON SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE THIS AFTN AND EVNG. WINDS AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL ALSO START DECREASING THIS AFTN. MAY BE
EYEBALLING A CONVERGENCE ZONE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL THIS
AFTN...PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS DOWNTOWN OR NORTH SEATTLE FROM
22Z-02Z.        HANER

&&

.MARINE...COLD FRONT PASSED EARLIER THIS MORNING. IS NOW BEING
FOLLOWED BY SW FLOW AND A WESTERLY SURGE THROUGH THE STRAIT. THIS
HAS PROMPTED A GALE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STRAIT...WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
SUBSIDE THIS AFTN AND EVNG. WEST SWELL ALONG THE COAST WILL EASILY
CONTINUE ABOVE 10 FEET FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SELY AND INCREASE SOMEWHAT AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE SW ON MON. THEN THE WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PULL UP STATIONARY SOMEWHERE FROM BETWEEN CENTRAL
VANCOUVER ISLAND AND THE WASHINGTON WATERS. EXPECT RATHER STRONG SW
FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KT TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THIS FRONT
STALLS MON NIGHT THROUGH WED.   HANER/ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING CASCADES ABOVE 3000 FT.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINING WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KSEW 231726
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
920 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WAS OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS MORNING.
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT. PERIODS
OF HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. AFTER A BREAK IN
THE WEATHER LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...A WARM FRONT WILL
REACH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE WET WEATHER TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A FRONT GAVE SOME HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF WRN WA
AROUND DAYBREAK. AT 9AM THE FRONT IS OVER SW WA WITH SOME HEAVY
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A
BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE SNOHOMISH COUNTY LINE AT
9AM. SNOW WILL FALL IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE PORTLAND TO BELLINGHAM
GRADIENT IS +9MB FOR SOME BLUSTERY WEATHER...THE GRADIENT WILL
WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
WRN WA AND ORE. A DIRTY UPPER RIDGE AND WARM FRONT MOVING OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL POKE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON LATER MON AND
TUE. THIS WILL MEAN PERIODS OF RAIN WITH A HIGHER SNOW LEVELS IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS NOT VERY HIGH. THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE WILL PROBABLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...LEAVING WESTERN WASHINGTON NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF A
MOIST SOUTHWEST FETCH AND A COOLER DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN
CANADA. EARLIER MODEL RUNS GENERALLY FAVORED THE IDEA THAT THE DRIER
NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD PREVAIL THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. MORE
RECENT RUNS...ESPECIALLY OF THE GFS...SHOW THE WETTER PATTERN
DEVELOPING. WE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE
FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT WE HAVE DECIDED TO STAND PATE ON THE FORECAST
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.   MCDONNAL

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A SORT OF MENTAL BLEND OF THE MODELS SOLUTIONS THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF RIVER FLOODING FOR THE RIVERS
COMING OUT OF THE NORTH CASCADES BY WEDNESDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
FOCUS RATHER HEAVY RAIN IN THE NORTH CASCADES WHILE THE 12Z NAM
SURPRISINGLY ONLY SNOWS A 48HR TOTAL OF ABOUT THREE INCHES OF RAIN
SPREAD OUT ALONG ALL OF THE CASCADE RANGE. I HAVE NOT SEEN THE ECMWF
YET...BUT WILL TAKE THAT INTO CONSIDERATION FOR A HYDRO OUTLOOK
TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG WEST FLOW ALOFT MORNING...BECOMING MODERATE NW
FLOW THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. AIR MASS MOIST AND UNSTABLE...BUT THE
MOIST LAYER WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW TONIGHT.

ACTIVE LINE OF EAST-WEST ORIENTED THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN SPREADING
ONTO THE COAST SOUTH OF GRAYS HARBOR FOR THE PAST 2 HOURS...WITH
SOME INDIVIDUAL CELLS SHOWING SIGNS OF ROTATION AND SIGNIFICANT
ORGANIZATION...IE THESE ARE STRONG STORMS. MAIN IMPACT WITHIN OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN LEWIS COUNTY FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...A FEW BAND OF SHOWERS FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT FROM EARLIER
THIS MORNING. TREND WILL BE TOWARD DECREASING SHOWER COVERAGE AND
DECREASING WIND FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

KSEA...A BAND OF SHOWERS APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH 19Z...WITH THE
OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF A SINGLE LIGHTNING STRIKE. THEN A DECREASING
TREND ON SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE THIS AFTN AND EVNG. WINDS AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL ALSO START DECREASING THIS AFTN. MAY BE
EYEBALLING A CONVERGENCE ZONE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL THIS
AFTN...PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS DOWNTOWN OR NORTH SEATTLE FROM
22Z-02Z.        HANER

&&

.MARINE...COLD FRONT PASSED EARLIER THIS MORNING. IS NOW BEING
FOLLOWED BY SW FLOW AND A WESTERLY SURGE THROUGH THE STRAIT. THIS
HAS PROMPTED A GALE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STRAIT...WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
SUBSIDE THIS AFTN AND EVNG. WEST SWELL ALONG THE COAST WILL EASILY
CONTINUE ABOVE 10 FEET FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SELY AND INCREASE SOMEWHAT AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE SW ON MON. THEN THE WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PULL UP STATIONARY SOMEWHERE FROM BETWEEN CENTRAL
VANCOUVER ISLAND AND THE WASHINGTON WATERS. EXPECT RATHER STRONG SW
FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KT TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THIS FRONT
STALLS MON NIGHT THROUGH WED.   HANER/ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING CASCADES ABOVE 3000 FT.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINING WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KSEW 231726
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
920 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WAS OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS MORNING.
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT. PERIODS
OF HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. AFTER A BREAK IN
THE WEATHER LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...A WARM FRONT WILL
REACH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE WET WEATHER TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A FRONT GAVE SOME HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF WRN WA
AROUND DAYBREAK. AT 9AM THE FRONT IS OVER SW WA WITH SOME HEAVY
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A
BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE SNOHOMISH COUNTY LINE AT
9AM. SNOW WILL FALL IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE PORTLAND TO BELLINGHAM
GRADIENT IS +9MB FOR SOME BLUSTERY WEATHER...THE GRADIENT WILL
WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
WRN WA AND ORE. A DIRTY UPPER RIDGE AND WARM FRONT MOVING OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL POKE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON LATER MON AND
TUE. THIS WILL MEAN PERIODS OF RAIN WITH A HIGHER SNOW LEVELS IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS NOT VERY HIGH. THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE WILL PROBABLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...LEAVING WESTERN WASHINGTON NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF A
MOIST SOUTHWEST FETCH AND A COOLER DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN
CANADA. EARLIER MODEL RUNS GENERALLY FAVORED THE IDEA THAT THE DRIER
NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD PREVAIL THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. MORE
RECENT RUNS...ESPECIALLY OF THE GFS...SHOW THE WETTER PATTERN
DEVELOPING. WE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE
FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT WE HAVE DECIDED TO STAND PATE ON THE FORECAST
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.   MCDONNAL

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A SORT OF MENTAL BLEND OF THE MODELS SOLUTIONS THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF RIVER FLOODING FOR THE RIVERS
COMING OUT OF THE NORTH CASCADES BY WEDNESDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
FOCUS RATHER HEAVY RAIN IN THE NORTH CASCADES WHILE THE 12Z NAM
SURPRISINGLY ONLY SNOWS A 48HR TOTAL OF ABOUT THREE INCHES OF RAIN
SPREAD OUT ALONG ALL OF THE CASCADE RANGE. I HAVE NOT SEEN THE ECMWF
YET...BUT WILL TAKE THAT INTO CONSIDERATION FOR A HYDRO OUTLOOK
TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG WEST FLOW ALOFT MORNING...BECOMING MODERATE NW
FLOW THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. AIR MASS MOIST AND UNSTABLE...BUT THE
MOIST LAYER WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW TONIGHT.

ACTIVE LINE OF EAST-WEST ORIENTED THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN SPREADING
ONTO THE COAST SOUTH OF GRAYS HARBOR FOR THE PAST 2 HOURS...WITH
SOME INDIVIDUAL CELLS SHOWING SIGNS OF ROTATION AND SIGNIFICANT
ORGANIZATION...IE THESE ARE STRONG STORMS. MAIN IMPACT WITHIN OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN LEWIS COUNTY FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...A FEW BAND OF SHOWERS FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT FROM EARLIER
THIS MORNING. TREND WILL BE TOWARD DECREASING SHOWER COVERAGE AND
DECREASING WIND FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

KSEA...A BAND OF SHOWERS APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH 19Z...WITH THE
OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF A SINGLE LIGHTNING STRIKE. THEN A DECREASING
TREND ON SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE THIS AFTN AND EVNG. WINDS AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL ALSO START DECREASING THIS AFTN. MAY BE
EYEBALLING A CONVERGENCE ZONE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL THIS
AFTN...PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS DOWNTOWN OR NORTH SEATTLE FROM
22Z-02Z.        HANER

&&

.MARINE...COLD FRONT PASSED EARLIER THIS MORNING. IS NOW BEING
FOLLOWED BY SW FLOW AND A WESTERLY SURGE THROUGH THE STRAIT. THIS
HAS PROMPTED A GALE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STRAIT...WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
SUBSIDE THIS AFTN AND EVNG. WEST SWELL ALONG THE COAST WILL EASILY
CONTINUE ABOVE 10 FEET FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SELY AND INCREASE SOMEWHAT AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE SW ON MON. THEN THE WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PULL UP STATIONARY SOMEWHERE FROM BETWEEN CENTRAL
VANCOUVER ISLAND AND THE WASHINGTON WATERS. EXPECT RATHER STRONG SW
FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KT TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THIS FRONT
STALLS MON NIGHT THROUGH WED.   HANER/ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING CASCADES ABOVE 3000 FT.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINING WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KSEW 231726
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
920 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WAS OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS MORNING.
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT. PERIODS
OF HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. AFTER A BREAK IN
THE WEATHER LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...A WARM FRONT WILL
REACH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE WET WEATHER TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A FRONT GAVE SOME HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF WRN WA
AROUND DAYBREAK. AT 9AM THE FRONT IS OVER SW WA WITH SOME HEAVY
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A
BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE SNOHOMISH COUNTY LINE AT
9AM. SNOW WILL FALL IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE PORTLAND TO BELLINGHAM
GRADIENT IS +9MB FOR SOME BLUSTERY WEATHER...THE GRADIENT WILL
WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
WRN WA AND ORE. A DIRTY UPPER RIDGE AND WARM FRONT MOVING OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL POKE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON LATER MON AND
TUE. THIS WILL MEAN PERIODS OF RAIN WITH A HIGHER SNOW LEVELS IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS NOT VERY HIGH. THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE WILL PROBABLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...LEAVING WESTERN WASHINGTON NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF A
MOIST SOUTHWEST FETCH AND A COOLER DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN
CANADA. EARLIER MODEL RUNS GENERALLY FAVORED THE IDEA THAT THE DRIER
NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD PREVAIL THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. MORE
RECENT RUNS...ESPECIALLY OF THE GFS...SHOW THE WETTER PATTERN
DEVELOPING. WE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE
FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT WE HAVE DECIDED TO STAND PATE ON THE FORECAST
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.   MCDONNAL

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A SORT OF MENTAL BLEND OF THE MODELS SOLUTIONS THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF RIVER FLOODING FOR THE RIVERS
COMING OUT OF THE NORTH CASCADES BY WEDNESDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
FOCUS RATHER HEAVY RAIN IN THE NORTH CASCADES WHILE THE 12Z NAM
SURPRISINGLY ONLY SNOWS A 48HR TOTAL OF ABOUT THREE INCHES OF RAIN
SPREAD OUT ALONG ALL OF THE CASCADE RANGE. I HAVE NOT SEEN THE ECMWF
YET...BUT WILL TAKE THAT INTO CONSIDERATION FOR A HYDRO OUTLOOK
TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG WEST FLOW ALOFT MORNING...BECOMING MODERATE NW
FLOW THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. AIR MASS MOIST AND UNSTABLE...BUT THE
MOIST LAYER WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW TONIGHT.

ACTIVE LINE OF EAST-WEST ORIENTED THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN SPREADING
ONTO THE COAST SOUTH OF GRAYS HARBOR FOR THE PAST 2 HOURS...WITH
SOME INDIVIDUAL CELLS SHOWING SIGNS OF ROTATION AND SIGNIFICANT
ORGANIZATION...IE THESE ARE STRONG STORMS. MAIN IMPACT WITHIN OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN LEWIS COUNTY FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...A FEW BAND OF SHOWERS FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT FROM EARLIER
THIS MORNING. TREND WILL BE TOWARD DECREASING SHOWER COVERAGE AND
DECREASING WIND FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

KSEA...A BAND OF SHOWERS APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH 19Z...WITH THE
OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF A SINGLE LIGHTNING STRIKE. THEN A DECREASING
TREND ON SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE THIS AFTN AND EVNG. WINDS AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL ALSO START DECREASING THIS AFTN. MAY BE
EYEBALLING A CONVERGENCE ZONE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL THIS
AFTN...PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS DOWNTOWN OR NORTH SEATTLE FROM
22Z-02Z.        HANER

&&

.MARINE...COLD FRONT PASSED EARLIER THIS MORNING. IS NOW BEING
FOLLOWED BY SW FLOW AND A WESTERLY SURGE THROUGH THE STRAIT. THIS
HAS PROMPTED A GALE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STRAIT...WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
SUBSIDE THIS AFTN AND EVNG. WEST SWELL ALONG THE COAST WILL EASILY
CONTINUE ABOVE 10 FEET FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SELY AND INCREASE SOMEWHAT AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE SW ON MON. THEN THE WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PULL UP STATIONARY SOMEWHERE FROM BETWEEN CENTRAL
VANCOUVER ISLAND AND THE WASHINGTON WATERS. EXPECT RATHER STRONG SW
FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KT TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THIS FRONT
STALLS MON NIGHT THROUGH WED.   HANER/ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING CASCADES ABOVE 3000 FT.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINING WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KOTX 231644
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
844 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The mountains will receive another round of accumulating snow
this afternoon and evening. The lower elevations will experience a
mix of rain and wet snow today. Monday will be a relatively quiet
and chilly day. More rain and heavy mountain snow is expected
Monday night into Tuesday. A breezy and wet weather pattern will
persist for much of the week with the mountains receiving several
rounds of snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated the forecast on snow levels and temperatures this morning.
The incoming weather system seems to have slowed slightly,
meanwhile overnight lows were not as cool due to the thicking
clouds. The delayed arrival of the the precipitation has allowed
both temps and dewpoints to rise slightly and makes the
precipitation type a little tricky. But along and south of a line
south of Coeur d`Alene, Spokane, Ephrata and Wenatchee, expect
mostly rain as wetbulbs are above freezing. Expect snow at the
onset north of this line with accumulations of 1 to 2 inches.
Although increased southerly flow will allow valley temperatures
to rise this afternoon and lead to valley rain and mountain snow
across the north. /rfox

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A band of precipitation is expected to blossom over
north Idaho and eastern Washington between 17-19z along a warm
front. Precipitation over much of the region will initially be in
the form of snow. Strong low level warm advection will likely lead
to a transition to rain or rain/snow mix in Pullman, Spokane, and
Couer D`Alene between 19z-21z. The late morning/early afternoon
development of snow should limit accumulations to grassy surfaces
with the exception of airports north of the metro like Sandpoint,
Bonners Ferry and Colville where slushy runway accumulations up to
an inch will be possible. Dry/downslope advection from the
west/northwest this evening should disperse stratus in the
evening, but fog and low stratus may crop up toward Monday
morning. /GKoch



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  27  36  32  43  38 /  90  20  10  50  60  40
Coeur d`Alene  38  28  37  33  41  39 / 100  40  10  60  80  60
Pullman        41  29  40  36  46  42 /  80  60  10  60  70  30
Lewiston       50  33  47  39  50  44 /  50  60  10  60  60  20
Colville       36  25  35  30  39  36 /  90  10  10  60  60  50
Sandpoint      36  29  36  30  39  37 / 100  40  10  70  80  80
Kellogg        40  28  36  33  38  38 / 100  80  10  70  90  70
Moses Lake     46  25  40  32  48  40 /  20  10  10  20  20  10
Wenatchee      48  29  37  34  46  41 /  10  10  10  20  30  20
Omak           37  22  33  30  41  36 /  30  10  10  30  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 231644
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
844 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The mountains will receive another round of accumulating snow
this afternoon and evening. The lower elevations will experience a
mix of rain and wet snow today. Monday will be a relatively quiet
and chilly day. More rain and heavy mountain snow is expected
Monday night into Tuesday. A breezy and wet weather pattern will
persist for much of the week with the mountains receiving several
rounds of snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated the forecast on snow levels and temperatures this morning.
The incoming weather system seems to have slowed slightly,
meanwhile overnight lows were not as cool due to the thicking
clouds. The delayed arrival of the the precipitation has allowed
both temps and dewpoints to rise slightly and makes the
precipitation type a little tricky. But along and south of a line
south of Coeur d`Alene, Spokane, Ephrata and Wenatchee, expect
mostly rain as wetbulbs are above freezing. Expect snow at the
onset north of this line with accumulations of 1 to 2 inches.
Although increased southerly flow will allow valley temperatures
to rise this afternoon and lead to valley rain and mountain snow
across the north. /rfox

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A band of precipitation is expected to blossom over
north Idaho and eastern Washington between 17-19z along a warm
front. Precipitation over much of the region will initially be in
the form of snow. Strong low level warm advection will likely lead
to a transition to rain or rain/snow mix in Pullman, Spokane, and
Couer D`Alene between 19z-21z. The late morning/early afternoon
development of snow should limit accumulations to grassy surfaces
with the exception of airports north of the metro like Sandpoint,
Bonners Ferry and Colville where slushy runway accumulations up to
an inch will be possible. Dry/downslope advection from the
west/northwest this evening should disperse stratus in the
evening, but fog and low stratus may crop up toward Monday
morning. /GKoch



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  27  36  32  43  38 /  90  20  10  50  60  40
Coeur d`Alene  38  28  37  33  41  39 / 100  40  10  60  80  60
Pullman        41  29  40  36  46  42 /  80  60  10  60  70  30
Lewiston       50  33  47  39  50  44 /  50  60  10  60  60  20
Colville       36  25  35  30  39  36 /  90  10  10  60  60  50
Sandpoint      36  29  36  30  39  37 / 100  40  10  70  80  80
Kellogg        40  28  36  33  38  38 / 100  80  10  70  90  70
Moses Lake     46  25  40  32  48  40 /  20  10  10  20  20  10
Wenatchee      48  29  37  34  46  41 /  10  10  10  20  30  20
Omak           37  22  33  30  41  36 /  30  10  10  30  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 231644
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
844 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The mountains will receive another round of accumulating snow
this afternoon and evening. The lower elevations will experience a
mix of rain and wet snow today. Monday will be a relatively quiet
and chilly day. More rain and heavy mountain snow is expected
Monday night into Tuesday. A breezy and wet weather pattern will
persist for much of the week with the mountains receiving several
rounds of snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated the forecast on snow levels and temperatures this morning.
The incoming weather system seems to have slowed slightly,
meanwhile overnight lows were not as cool due to the thicking
clouds. The delayed arrival of the the precipitation has allowed
both temps and dewpoints to rise slightly and makes the
precipitation type a little tricky. But along and south of a line
south of Coeur d`Alene, Spokane, Ephrata and Wenatchee, expect
mostly rain as wetbulbs are above freezing. Expect snow at the
onset north of this line with accumulations of 1 to 2 inches.
Although increased southerly flow will allow valley temperatures
to rise this afternoon and lead to valley rain and mountain snow
across the north. /rfox

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A band of precipitation is expected to blossom over
north Idaho and eastern Washington between 17-19z along a warm
front. Precipitation over much of the region will initially be in
the form of snow. Strong low level warm advection will likely lead
to a transition to rain or rain/snow mix in Pullman, Spokane, and
Couer D`Alene between 19z-21z. The late morning/early afternoon
development of snow should limit accumulations to grassy surfaces
with the exception of airports north of the metro like Sandpoint,
Bonners Ferry and Colville where slushy runway accumulations up to
an inch will be possible. Dry/downslope advection from the
west/northwest this evening should disperse stratus in the
evening, but fog and low stratus may crop up toward Monday
morning. /GKoch



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  27  36  32  43  38 /  90  20  10  50  60  40
Coeur d`Alene  38  28  37  33  41  39 / 100  40  10  60  80  60
Pullman        41  29  40  36  46  42 /  80  60  10  60  70  30
Lewiston       50  33  47  39  50  44 /  50  60  10  60  60  20
Colville       36  25  35  30  39  36 /  90  10  10  60  60  50
Sandpoint      36  29  36  30  39  37 / 100  40  10  70  80  80
Kellogg        40  28  36  33  38  38 / 100  80  10  70  90  70
Moses Lake     46  25  40  32  48  40 /  20  10  10  20  20  10
Wenatchee      48  29  37  34  46  41 /  10  10  10  20  30  20
Omak           37  22  33  30  41  36 /  30  10  10  30  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 231644
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
844 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The mountains will receive another round of accumulating snow
this afternoon and evening. The lower elevations will experience a
mix of rain and wet snow today. Monday will be a relatively quiet
and chilly day. More rain and heavy mountain snow is expected
Monday night into Tuesday. A breezy and wet weather pattern will
persist for much of the week with the mountains receiving several
rounds of snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated the forecast on snow levels and temperatures this morning.
The incoming weather system seems to have slowed slightly,
meanwhile overnight lows were not as cool due to the thicking
clouds. The delayed arrival of the the precipitation has allowed
both temps and dewpoints to rise slightly and makes the
precipitation type a little tricky. But along and south of a line
south of Coeur d`Alene, Spokane, Ephrata and Wenatchee, expect
mostly rain as wetbulbs are above freezing. Expect snow at the
onset north of this line with accumulations of 1 to 2 inches.
Although increased southerly flow will allow valley temperatures
to rise this afternoon and lead to valley rain and mountain snow
across the north. /rfox

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A band of precipitation is expected to blossom over
north Idaho and eastern Washington between 17-19z along a warm
front. Precipitation over much of the region will initially be in
the form of snow. Strong low level warm advection will likely lead
to a transition to rain or rain/snow mix in Pullman, Spokane, and
Couer D`Alene between 19z-21z. The late morning/early afternoon
development of snow should limit accumulations to grassy surfaces
with the exception of airports north of the metro like Sandpoint,
Bonners Ferry and Colville where slushy runway accumulations up to
an inch will be possible. Dry/downslope advection from the
west/northwest this evening should disperse stratus in the
evening, but fog and low stratus may crop up toward Monday
morning. /GKoch



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  27  36  32  43  38 /  90  20  10  50  60  40
Coeur d`Alene  38  28  37  33  41  39 / 100  40  10  60  80  60
Pullman        41  29  40  36  46  42 /  80  60  10  60  70  30
Lewiston       50  33  47  39  50  44 /  50  60  10  60  60  20
Colville       36  25  35  30  39  36 /  90  10  10  60  60  50
Sandpoint      36  29  36  30  39  37 / 100  40  10  70  80  80
Kellogg        40  28  36  33  38  38 / 100  80  10  70  90  70
Moses Lake     46  25  40  32  48  40 /  20  10  10  20  20  10
Wenatchee      48  29  37  34  46  41 /  10  10  10  20  30  20
Omak           37  22  33  30  41  36 /  30  10  10  30  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 231526 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
726 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE
NEXT FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
MIDDAY TODAY...MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MINOR FOR THE NORTHERN OREGON PASSES. A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO CALIFORNIA AND OREGON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK ENOUGH FOR SYSTEMS TO CLIP OUR NORTHERN ZONES WITH OCCASIONAL
WET WEATHER. VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY BUILD IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH FOG POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE PERSISTENT
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY
BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION FOR THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...THERE IS A A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE JUST REACHING
THE SW WASHINGTON COAST. THIS LINE PREVIOUSLY PRODUCED SEVERAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST AND A FEW STRIKES
INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES. HAVE DONE A QUICK
UPDATE TO EXPAND THE AREA OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SW
WASHINGTON COAST TO THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES. THERE IS MORE
CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COAST THAN INLAND. HAVE ALSO
ISSUED A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE LINE
WILL GENERATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND ABUNDANT LIGHTNING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING VERY
SLOWLY...AND MODELS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT WILL FALL
APART SHORTLY OR BEFORE REACHING OREGON. WE WILL BE MONITORING THIS
CLOSELY AND MAKE FURTHER UPDATES IF NECESSARY. TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING BETWEEN 0.01-0.05 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
IN THE PAST 3 HOURS ACROSS THE COAST RANGE AND INLAND VALLEYS...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE CASCADES. THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT FRONTAL BAND IS ALREADY POPPING UP ON KATX AND KLGX RADARS IN
WASHINGTON...WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE COASTAL WATERS.

THE 06Z GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING DECENT CAPE VALUES FOR OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...AND GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AS
SEEN ON RADAR SO FAR THIS MORNING...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER OUR SW WASHINGTON/NW OREGON
COASTAL WATERS.

THERE HAS ALSO BEEN ENOUGH CLEARING THIS MORNING TO MAINTAIN SOME
LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS. EXPECT ANY LINGERING
FOG TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE INCREASING RAIN AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL BE FOCUSED
FURTHER NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS
NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND IN PARTICULAR THE SW WASHINGTON
CASCADES. 06Z NAM AND GFS SHOW A BULLSEYE OF ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BEFORE
MODELS HAVE THE FRONT SAG FURTHER SOUTHEAST. WITH SNOW LEVELS STILL
AROUND 4000 FT...STILL EXPECTING ABOUT 6-9 INCHES OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL IMPACT THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES... WHILE
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW COULD STILL FALL OVER THE NW OREGON CASCADES AS
THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH LATER TODAY. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WILL SEE
MUCH LESS.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT COOL AND RAINY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK RATHER MARGINAL...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
TOPPING OUT AROUND 0.15 INCHES OF RAIN IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. LOWER
PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE REGION FAIRLY DRY BUT CLOUDY. BUT
THE THREAT FOR VALLEY FOG INCREASES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COAST. MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A FEW DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE
AND BRINGING SOME PRECIP MAINLY TO THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST ZONES BY
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT THIS PATTERN OF NORTHERN SHOWERS WITH SOUTHERN
VALLEY AND COASTAL FOG TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /27

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS ARE
ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY. BUT ONCE
WE GET TO THANKSGIVING MORNING...MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY CONCERNING THE
NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION THANKSGIVING DAY.
THE 06Z GFS SHOWS A RATHER WELL-ORGANIZED FRONTAL BAND REACHING THE
SW WASHINGTON/NW OREGON COAST IN THE MORNING...WITH RAIN SPREADING
INLAND BY THE AFTERNOON...RIGHT IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING DINNER. WILL
HAVE TO SEE WHAT THE 12Z ECMWF DOES WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WHETHER OR
NOT IT MAINTAINS ITS LIGHTER RAIN/RIDGY SOLUTION. A MUCH
STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH
COULD POSE A THREAT TO TRAVELERS RETURNING AFTER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY. DETAILS AT THIS POINT ARE STILL UNKNOWN AND WILL BE REFINED
WITH FUTURE UPDATES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. /64/27

&&

.AVIATION...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO VFR
CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF SITES ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...OCCASIONALLY ENOUGH
CLEARING WILL OCCUR FOR SCATTERED TAF SITES TO DETERIORATE INTO
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN SUBSEQUENTLY
IMPROVE AS THE NEXT SHOWER MOVES OVERHEAD.

A FRONT OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST IS PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND A
NARROW BAND OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES
INTO NORTHWEST OREGON...BUT IT MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KAST AND THE KPDX METRO TAF SITES TOWARDS MIDDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY
FOR THE PORTLAND METRO TAF SITES. FARTHER SOUTH WHERE CLEARING
THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR...IFR CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP AT KEUG...KSLE AND EVEN KHIO TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD
TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH A DYING FRONT MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE CIGS INTO MVFR. THERE IS
A CHANCE THESE CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST WELL INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...OR PERHAPS DETERIORATE INTO HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THESE DETAILS IS LOW AT THIS POINT. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST IS PRODUCING A NARROW
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN A BURST OF LOW END GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS OF 35 KT MAY SURFACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING
AS THIS BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES THROUGH. CONTINUED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS UPSTREAM TO SEE
IF A SHORT FUSED GALE WARNING IS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS TO TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON...AND SEAS TO PEAK IN THE
MID TEENS BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE WATERS LATE MONDAY...BUT ASIDE
FROM SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT. WINDS MAY STAY A BIT GUSTIER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS EARLY TO MID WEEK BEFORE A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE WATERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOW END GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS MIGHT BE SQUEEZED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM AT SOME POINT...BUT
THE SCENARIO DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT PROMISING FOR A SOLID GALE
FORCE OR HIGHER WIND EVENT FOR THE WATERS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST
    THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
    FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
   OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
    PST MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 231526 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
726 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE
NEXT FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
MIDDAY TODAY...MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MINOR FOR THE NORTHERN OREGON PASSES. A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO CALIFORNIA AND OREGON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK ENOUGH FOR SYSTEMS TO CLIP OUR NORTHERN ZONES WITH OCCASIONAL
WET WEATHER. VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY BUILD IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH FOG POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE PERSISTENT
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY
BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION FOR THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...THERE IS A A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE JUST REACHING
THE SW WASHINGTON COAST. THIS LINE PREVIOUSLY PRODUCED SEVERAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST AND A FEW STRIKES
INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES. HAVE DONE A QUICK
UPDATE TO EXPAND THE AREA OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SW
WASHINGTON COAST TO THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES. THERE IS MORE
CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COAST THAN INLAND. HAVE ALSO
ISSUED A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE LINE
WILL GENERATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND ABUNDANT LIGHTNING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING VERY
SLOWLY...AND MODELS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT WILL FALL
APART SHORTLY OR BEFORE REACHING OREGON. WE WILL BE MONITORING THIS
CLOSELY AND MAKE FURTHER UPDATES IF NECESSARY. TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING BETWEEN 0.01-0.05 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
IN THE PAST 3 HOURS ACROSS THE COAST RANGE AND INLAND VALLEYS...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE CASCADES. THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT FRONTAL BAND IS ALREADY POPPING UP ON KATX AND KLGX RADARS IN
WASHINGTON...WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE COASTAL WATERS.

THE 06Z GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING DECENT CAPE VALUES FOR OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...AND GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AS
SEEN ON RADAR SO FAR THIS MORNING...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER OUR SW WASHINGTON/NW OREGON
COASTAL WATERS.

THERE HAS ALSO BEEN ENOUGH CLEARING THIS MORNING TO MAINTAIN SOME
LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS. EXPECT ANY LINGERING
FOG TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE INCREASING RAIN AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL BE FOCUSED
FURTHER NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS
NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND IN PARTICULAR THE SW WASHINGTON
CASCADES. 06Z NAM AND GFS SHOW A BULLSEYE OF ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BEFORE
MODELS HAVE THE FRONT SAG FURTHER SOUTHEAST. WITH SNOW LEVELS STILL
AROUND 4000 FT...STILL EXPECTING ABOUT 6-9 INCHES OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL IMPACT THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES... WHILE
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW COULD STILL FALL OVER THE NW OREGON CASCADES AS
THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH LATER TODAY. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WILL SEE
MUCH LESS.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT COOL AND RAINY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK RATHER MARGINAL...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
TOPPING OUT AROUND 0.15 INCHES OF RAIN IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. LOWER
PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE REGION FAIRLY DRY BUT CLOUDY. BUT
THE THREAT FOR VALLEY FOG INCREASES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COAST. MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A FEW DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE
AND BRINGING SOME PRECIP MAINLY TO THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST ZONES BY
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT THIS PATTERN OF NORTHERN SHOWERS WITH SOUTHERN
VALLEY AND COASTAL FOG TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /27

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS ARE
ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY. BUT ONCE
WE GET TO THANKSGIVING MORNING...MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY CONCERNING THE
NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION THANKSGIVING DAY.
THE 06Z GFS SHOWS A RATHER WELL-ORGANIZED FRONTAL BAND REACHING THE
SW WASHINGTON/NW OREGON COAST IN THE MORNING...WITH RAIN SPREADING
INLAND BY THE AFTERNOON...RIGHT IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING DINNER. WILL
HAVE TO SEE WHAT THE 12Z ECMWF DOES WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WHETHER OR
NOT IT MAINTAINS ITS LIGHTER RAIN/RIDGY SOLUTION. A MUCH
STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH
COULD POSE A THREAT TO TRAVELERS RETURNING AFTER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY. DETAILS AT THIS POINT ARE STILL UNKNOWN AND WILL BE REFINED
WITH FUTURE UPDATES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. /64/27

&&

.AVIATION...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO VFR
CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF SITES ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...OCCASIONALLY ENOUGH
CLEARING WILL OCCUR FOR SCATTERED TAF SITES TO DETERIORATE INTO
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN SUBSEQUENTLY
IMPROVE AS THE NEXT SHOWER MOVES OVERHEAD.

A FRONT OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST IS PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND A
NARROW BAND OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES
INTO NORTHWEST OREGON...BUT IT MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KAST AND THE KPDX METRO TAF SITES TOWARDS MIDDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY
FOR THE PORTLAND METRO TAF SITES. FARTHER SOUTH WHERE CLEARING
THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR...IFR CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP AT KEUG...KSLE AND EVEN KHIO TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD
TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH A DYING FRONT MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE CIGS INTO MVFR. THERE IS
A CHANCE THESE CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST WELL INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...OR PERHAPS DETERIORATE INTO HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THESE DETAILS IS LOW AT THIS POINT. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST IS PRODUCING A NARROW
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN A BURST OF LOW END GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS OF 35 KT MAY SURFACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING
AS THIS BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES THROUGH. CONTINUED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS UPSTREAM TO SEE
IF A SHORT FUSED GALE WARNING IS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS TO TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON...AND SEAS TO PEAK IN THE
MID TEENS BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE WATERS LATE MONDAY...BUT ASIDE
FROM SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT. WINDS MAY STAY A BIT GUSTIER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS EARLY TO MID WEEK BEFORE A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE WATERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOW END GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS MIGHT BE SQUEEZED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM AT SOME POINT...BUT
THE SCENARIO DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT PROMISING FOR A SOLID GALE
FORCE OR HIGHER WIND EVENT FOR THE WATERS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST
    THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
    FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
   OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
    PST MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 231209
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
409 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The mountains will receive another round of accumulating snow
this afternoon and evening. The lower elevations will experience a
mix of rain and wet snow today. Monday will be a relatively quiet
and chilly day. More rain and heavy mountain snow is expected
Monday night into Tuesday. A breezy and wet weather pattern will
persist for much of the week with the mountains receiving several
rounds of snow.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and Tonight: Another round of mountain snow is on the way
for this afternoon and evening. The mountains of the Idaho
Panhandle will likely receive additional 2 to 6 inches of snow
with amounts up to 8 inches for the ridges in southern Shoshone
county favored by northwest flow. The Cascade crest will also pick
up a quick 8 to 12 inches beginning early this morning.

The system bringing precipitation today and tonight is moving
inland at this hour (230 AM) into central British Columbia. As
the surface low tracks eastward today, Washington and north Idaho
will be in the warm sector leading to rising snow levels through
the day and increasing south winds. The primary forcing
mechanisms for precipitation will be warm/moist advection along a
warm front and vigorous westerly upslope flow into the Cascades
and Panhandle mountains. Despite the strong frontal forcing, the
models are in good agreement that the lee of the Cascades into the
Basin will be shadowed today due to mid-level, cross Cascade flow.
Places like Wenathcee, Moses Lake, and Grand Coulee probably won`t
see much (if any) precipitation today. The most significant
precipitation will likely occur this afternoon and early this
evening which isn`t good news for folks who want to see snow
accumulate. Places like Pullman, Spokane, Coeur D`Alene, and
Davenport should see precipitation in the form of snow through
early to mid afternoon. However temperatures in the mid to upper
30s will make it difficult for snow to stick except on grassy
surfaces. Places like Sandpoint, Bonners Ferry, Priest Lake and
Metaline Falls will have a better shot of 1 to 2 inch
accumulations this afternoon.

By this evening, precipitation should be confined to the Idaho
Panhandle and the Blue Mountains. Winds in the 850-700mb layer
will veer to the northwest as this system moves into Alberta. This
wind trajectory favors the mountains of Shoshone county, high
terrain of the Camas Prairie, and Blue Mountains. Elsewhere, look
for clearing skies this evening and light winds. Areas of fog
should develop in the sheltered valleys of northeast Washington
and possibly over the Palouse, West Plains, and Upper Columbia
Basin.

Monday: A flat high pressure ridge on Monday should provide a
break in the active weather on Monday at least during the morning.
Another moist warm front is progged by the models to reach
southern British Columbia by Monday afternoon. There some
uncertainty with the track of this frontal system, but the
majority of eastern Washington and north Idaho should remain dry
Monday. The northern Cascades and Okanogan Highlands may
experience some light snow Monday afternoon, but the heavier
rain/snow will arrive Monday night into Tuesday. /GKoch

Monday night through Wednesday Night...Larger scale ridging builds
in the vicinity of the west coast during this time interval and
alters the storm track pattern somewhat over time. Initially the
ridging is off the coast and allows disturbances to drop down with
a northwest to southeast trajectory and dig into any moisture
streaming over the top of the amplifying ridge and steer it down
to the south and southeast. Such an occurrence is expected Monday
night into Tuesday. By late Tuesday the ridging off the coast
stops amplifying and the ridge moves west which allows the
northwest to southeast oriented storm track and jet to remain
close in proximity to the Southern British Columbia Border and
down into Northwest Montana. The resulting close proximity of the
jet stream and potential and models hinting at various shortwaves
dropping down in the northwest flow on the east side of the narrow
ridge there is good potential for some brisk gusty winds Tuesday
and Wednesday. Since there is not much if any cold air in majority
of lowland locations for disturbances to overrun a good portion of
the lowlands in the lee of the Cascades and the North Idaho
Panhandle pops are likely to remain high for mountain locations to
the north but taper down to low to no pop amounts due to rain-
shadow development for most of this forecast interval. The ridging
and mixing brought about by disturbances dropping down the edges
of the ridge allow for the bulk of forecast temperatures to remain
on the warm side of what would be considered normal for this time
of year with an exception Wednesday night when a push of cold
Canadian air starts a cooling trend and lowers snow levels.
/Pelatti

Thanksgiving Thursday through Sunday: Once again we are faced
with the dilemma that we have seen all week and that is continued
poor model agreement in the extended forecast. For at least the
last three nights the models have flip flopped completely for the
end of the forecast. While some consistency was present for the
12Z runs and the afternoon forecast, it has all been lost with the
00Z runs. So what we have been debating for the past few days was
to buy into the warmer and drier ridge pattern for the end of the
week or take the cooler one with cold polar air dropping in from
Canada. For this forecast package I went with the cooler based on
agreement from other supporting models. The Euro today was the
cooler solution and it had good support from both the Canadian and
DGEX and even the 12Z GFS. The warmer solution this time
encompassed the 00Z and 18Z GFS along with the 12Z Euro. Funny
enough, just 24 hours ago this was exactly the opposite with the
majority in favor of the warmer solution.

The scenario that was incorporated into this forecast was a cold
polar front dropping in from Canada late Wednesday into
Thanksgiving Thursday bringing a good shot of precipitation with
moisture out ahead of the front. How to play POPs here was very
tricky and for the most part they were left unchanged until
models better agree. This would keep the mention of precip for
most throughout the extended, but if the Euro does verify we could
expect significant drying behind the cold front. Precip on
Wednesday into Thursday could lead to some less than stellar
travel conditions for turkey day mainly in the higher elevations
and far north, but due to low confidence I would hold off on
altering plans for now. Snow levels were lowered throughout and
are expected to reach most valley floors (minus the southern
valleys) by late Saturday as the cold air encompasses the region.
Temperatures were also trended lower to near normal by the
weekend, but will also need to be fine tuned once models better
agree. Overall we see a forecast full of uncertainties, but we
will expect better agreement once we get a little closer to this
timeframe. /Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A band of precipitation is expected to blossom over
north Idaho and eastern Washington between 17-19z along a warm
front. Precipitation over much of the region will initially be in
the form of snow. Strong low level warm advection will likely lead
to a transition to rain or rain/snow mix in Pullman, Spokane, and
Couer D`Alene between 19z-21z. The late morning/early afternoon
development of snow should limit accumulations to grassy surfaces
with the exception of airports north of the metro like Sandpoint,
Bonners Ferry and Colville where slushy runway accumulations up to
an inch will be possible. Dry/downslope advection from the
west/northwest this evening should disperse stratus in the
evening, but fog and low stratus may crop up toward Monday
morning. /GKoch


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  27  37  32  43  38 /  90  20  10  50  60  40
Coeur d`Alene  38  28  37  33  41  39 / 100  40  10  60  80  60
Pullman        41  29  40  36  46  42 /  80  60  10  60  70  30
Lewiston       50  33  45  39  50  44 /  50  60  10  60  60  20
Colville       36  25  37  30  39  36 /  90  10  10  60  60  50
Sandpoint      36  29  37  30  39  37 / 100  40  10  70  80  80
Kellogg        35  28  35  33  38  38 / 100  80  10  70  90  70
Moses Lake     46  25  41  32  48  40 /  20  10  10  20  20  10
Wenatchee      48  29  41  34  46  41 /  10  10  10  20  30  20
Omak           37  22  37  30  41  36 /  30  10  10  30  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 231209
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
409 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The mountains will receive another round of accumulating snow
this afternoon and evening. The lower elevations will experience a
mix of rain and wet snow today. Monday will be a relatively quiet
and chilly day. More rain and heavy mountain snow is expected
Monday night into Tuesday. A breezy and wet weather pattern will
persist for much of the week with the mountains receiving several
rounds of snow.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and Tonight: Another round of mountain snow is on the way
for this afternoon and evening. The mountains of the Idaho
Panhandle will likely receive additional 2 to 6 inches of snow
with amounts up to 8 inches for the ridges in southern Shoshone
county favored by northwest flow. The Cascade crest will also pick
up a quick 8 to 12 inches beginning early this morning.

The system bringing precipitation today and tonight is moving
inland at this hour (230 AM) into central British Columbia. As
the surface low tracks eastward today, Washington and north Idaho
will be in the warm sector leading to rising snow levels through
the day and increasing south winds. The primary forcing
mechanisms for precipitation will be warm/moist advection along a
warm front and vigorous westerly upslope flow into the Cascades
and Panhandle mountains. Despite the strong frontal forcing, the
models are in good agreement that the lee of the Cascades into the
Basin will be shadowed today due to mid-level, cross Cascade flow.
Places like Wenathcee, Moses Lake, and Grand Coulee probably won`t
see much (if any) precipitation today. The most significant
precipitation will likely occur this afternoon and early this
evening which isn`t good news for folks who want to see snow
accumulate. Places like Pullman, Spokane, Coeur D`Alene, and
Davenport should see precipitation in the form of snow through
early to mid afternoon. However temperatures in the mid to upper
30s will make it difficult for snow to stick except on grassy
surfaces. Places like Sandpoint, Bonners Ferry, Priest Lake and
Metaline Falls will have a better shot of 1 to 2 inch
accumulations this afternoon.

By this evening, precipitation should be confined to the Idaho
Panhandle and the Blue Mountains. Winds in the 850-700mb layer
will veer to the northwest as this system moves into Alberta. This
wind trajectory favors the mountains of Shoshone county, high
terrain of the Camas Prairie, and Blue Mountains. Elsewhere, look
for clearing skies this evening and light winds. Areas of fog
should develop in the sheltered valleys of northeast Washington
and possibly over the Palouse, West Plains, and Upper Columbia
Basin.

Monday: A flat high pressure ridge on Monday should provide a
break in the active weather on Monday at least during the morning.
Another moist warm front is progged by the models to reach
southern British Columbia by Monday afternoon. There some
uncertainty with the track of this frontal system, but the
majority of eastern Washington and north Idaho should remain dry
Monday. The northern Cascades and Okanogan Highlands may
experience some light snow Monday afternoon, but the heavier
rain/snow will arrive Monday night into Tuesday. /GKoch

Monday night through Wednesday Night...Larger scale ridging builds
in the vicinity of the west coast during this time interval and
alters the storm track pattern somewhat over time. Initially the
ridging is off the coast and allows disturbances to drop down with
a northwest to southeast trajectory and dig into any moisture
streaming over the top of the amplifying ridge and steer it down
to the south and southeast. Such an occurrence is expected Monday
night into Tuesday. By late Tuesday the ridging off the coast
stops amplifying and the ridge moves west which allows the
northwest to southeast oriented storm track and jet to remain
close in proximity to the Southern British Columbia Border and
down into Northwest Montana. The resulting close proximity of the
jet stream and potential and models hinting at various shortwaves
dropping down in the northwest flow on the east side of the narrow
ridge there is good potential for some brisk gusty winds Tuesday
and Wednesday. Since there is not much if any cold air in majority
of lowland locations for disturbances to overrun a good portion of
the lowlands in the lee of the Cascades and the North Idaho
Panhandle pops are likely to remain high for mountain locations to
the north but taper down to low to no pop amounts due to rain-
shadow development for most of this forecast interval. The ridging
and mixing brought about by disturbances dropping down the edges
of the ridge allow for the bulk of forecast temperatures to remain
on the warm side of what would be considered normal for this time
of year with an exception Wednesday night when a push of cold
Canadian air starts a cooling trend and lowers snow levels.
/Pelatti

Thanksgiving Thursday through Sunday: Once again we are faced
with the dilemma that we have seen all week and that is continued
poor model agreement in the extended forecast. For at least the
last three nights the models have flip flopped completely for the
end of the forecast. While some consistency was present for the
12Z runs and the afternoon forecast, it has all been lost with the
00Z runs. So what we have been debating for the past few days was
to buy into the warmer and drier ridge pattern for the end of the
week or take the cooler one with cold polar air dropping in from
Canada. For this forecast package I went with the cooler based on
agreement from other supporting models. The Euro today was the
cooler solution and it had good support from both the Canadian and
DGEX and even the 12Z GFS. The warmer solution this time
encompassed the 00Z and 18Z GFS along with the 12Z Euro. Funny
enough, just 24 hours ago this was exactly the opposite with the
majority in favor of the warmer solution.

The scenario that was incorporated into this forecast was a cold
polar front dropping in from Canada late Wednesday into
Thanksgiving Thursday bringing a good shot of precipitation with
moisture out ahead of the front. How to play POPs here was very
tricky and for the most part they were left unchanged until
models better agree. This would keep the mention of precip for
most throughout the extended, but if the Euro does verify we could
expect significant drying behind the cold front. Precip on
Wednesday into Thursday could lead to some less than stellar
travel conditions for turkey day mainly in the higher elevations
and far north, but due to low confidence I would hold off on
altering plans for now. Snow levels were lowered throughout and
are expected to reach most valley floors (minus the southern
valleys) by late Saturday as the cold air encompasses the region.
Temperatures were also trended lower to near normal by the
weekend, but will also need to be fine tuned once models better
agree. Overall we see a forecast full of uncertainties, but we
will expect better agreement once we get a little closer to this
timeframe. /Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A band of precipitation is expected to blossom over
north Idaho and eastern Washington between 17-19z along a warm
front. Precipitation over much of the region will initially be in
the form of snow. Strong low level warm advection will likely lead
to a transition to rain or rain/snow mix in Pullman, Spokane, and
Couer D`Alene between 19z-21z. The late morning/early afternoon
development of snow should limit accumulations to grassy surfaces
with the exception of airports north of the metro like Sandpoint,
Bonners Ferry and Colville where slushy runway accumulations up to
an inch will be possible. Dry/downslope advection from the
west/northwest this evening should disperse stratus in the
evening, but fog and low stratus may crop up toward Monday
morning. /GKoch


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  27  37  32  43  38 /  90  20  10  50  60  40
Coeur d`Alene  38  28  37  33  41  39 / 100  40  10  60  80  60
Pullman        41  29  40  36  46  42 /  80  60  10  60  70  30
Lewiston       50  33  45  39  50  44 /  50  60  10  60  60  20
Colville       36  25  37  30  39  36 /  90  10  10  60  60  50
Sandpoint      36  29  37  30  39  37 / 100  40  10  70  80  80
Kellogg        35  28  35  33  38  38 / 100  80  10  70  90  70
Moses Lake     46  25  41  32  48  40 /  20  10  10  20  20  10
Wenatchee      48  29  41  34  46  41 /  10  10  10  20  30  20
Omak           37  22  37  30  41  36 /  30  10  10  30  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 231209
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
409 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The mountains will receive another round of accumulating snow
this afternoon and evening. The lower elevations will experience a
mix of rain and wet snow today. Monday will be a relatively quiet
and chilly day. More rain and heavy mountain snow is expected
Monday night into Tuesday. A breezy and wet weather pattern will
persist for much of the week with the mountains receiving several
rounds of snow.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and Tonight: Another round of mountain snow is on the way
for this afternoon and evening. The mountains of the Idaho
Panhandle will likely receive additional 2 to 6 inches of snow
with amounts up to 8 inches for the ridges in southern Shoshone
county favored by northwest flow. The Cascade crest will also pick
up a quick 8 to 12 inches beginning early this morning.

The system bringing precipitation today and tonight is moving
inland at this hour (230 AM) into central British Columbia. As
the surface low tracks eastward today, Washington and north Idaho
will be in the warm sector leading to rising snow levels through
the day and increasing south winds. The primary forcing
mechanisms for precipitation will be warm/moist advection along a
warm front and vigorous westerly upslope flow into the Cascades
and Panhandle mountains. Despite the strong frontal forcing, the
models are in good agreement that the lee of the Cascades into the
Basin will be shadowed today due to mid-level, cross Cascade flow.
Places like Wenathcee, Moses Lake, and Grand Coulee probably won`t
see much (if any) precipitation today. The most significant
precipitation will likely occur this afternoon and early this
evening which isn`t good news for folks who want to see snow
accumulate. Places like Pullman, Spokane, Coeur D`Alene, and
Davenport should see precipitation in the form of snow through
early to mid afternoon. However temperatures in the mid to upper
30s will make it difficult for snow to stick except on grassy
surfaces. Places like Sandpoint, Bonners Ferry, Priest Lake and
Metaline Falls will have a better shot of 1 to 2 inch
accumulations this afternoon.

By this evening, precipitation should be confined to the Idaho
Panhandle and the Blue Mountains. Winds in the 850-700mb layer
will veer to the northwest as this system moves into Alberta. This
wind trajectory favors the mountains of Shoshone county, high
terrain of the Camas Prairie, and Blue Mountains. Elsewhere, look
for clearing skies this evening and light winds. Areas of fog
should develop in the sheltered valleys of northeast Washington
and possibly over the Palouse, West Plains, and Upper Columbia
Basin.

Monday: A flat high pressure ridge on Monday should provide a
break in the active weather on Monday at least during the morning.
Another moist warm front is progged by the models to reach
southern British Columbia by Monday afternoon. There some
uncertainty with the track of this frontal system, but the
majority of eastern Washington and north Idaho should remain dry
Monday. The northern Cascades and Okanogan Highlands may
experience some light snow Monday afternoon, but the heavier
rain/snow will arrive Monday night into Tuesday. /GKoch

Monday night through Wednesday Night...Larger scale ridging builds
in the vicinity of the west coast during this time interval and
alters the storm track pattern somewhat over time. Initially the
ridging is off the coast and allows disturbances to drop down with
a northwest to southeast trajectory and dig into any moisture
streaming over the top of the amplifying ridge and steer it down
to the south and southeast. Such an occurrence is expected Monday
night into Tuesday. By late Tuesday the ridging off the coast
stops amplifying and the ridge moves west which allows the
northwest to southeast oriented storm track and jet to remain
close in proximity to the Southern British Columbia Border and
down into Northwest Montana. The resulting close proximity of the
jet stream and potential and models hinting at various shortwaves
dropping down in the northwest flow on the east side of the narrow
ridge there is good potential for some brisk gusty winds Tuesday
and Wednesday. Since there is not much if any cold air in majority
of lowland locations for disturbances to overrun a good portion of
the lowlands in the lee of the Cascades and the North Idaho
Panhandle pops are likely to remain high for mountain locations to
the north but taper down to low to no pop amounts due to rain-
shadow development for most of this forecast interval. The ridging
and mixing brought about by disturbances dropping down the edges
of the ridge allow for the bulk of forecast temperatures to remain
on the warm side of what would be considered normal for this time
of year with an exception Wednesday night when a push of cold
Canadian air starts a cooling trend and lowers snow levels.
/Pelatti

Thanksgiving Thursday through Sunday: Once again we are faced
with the dilemma that we have seen all week and that is continued
poor model agreement in the extended forecast. For at least the
last three nights the models have flip flopped completely for the
end of the forecast. While some consistency was present for the
12Z runs and the afternoon forecast, it has all been lost with the
00Z runs. So what we have been debating for the past few days was
to buy into the warmer and drier ridge pattern for the end of the
week or take the cooler one with cold polar air dropping in from
Canada. For this forecast package I went with the cooler based on
agreement from other supporting models. The Euro today was the
cooler solution and it had good support from both the Canadian and
DGEX and even the 12Z GFS. The warmer solution this time
encompassed the 00Z and 18Z GFS along with the 12Z Euro. Funny
enough, just 24 hours ago this was exactly the opposite with the
majority in favor of the warmer solution.

The scenario that was incorporated into this forecast was a cold
polar front dropping in from Canada late Wednesday into
Thanksgiving Thursday bringing a good shot of precipitation with
moisture out ahead of the front. How to play POPs here was very
tricky and for the most part they were left unchanged until
models better agree. This would keep the mention of precip for
most throughout the extended, but if the Euro does verify we could
expect significant drying behind the cold front. Precip on
Wednesday into Thursday could lead to some less than stellar
travel conditions for turkey day mainly in the higher elevations
and far north, but due to low confidence I would hold off on
altering plans for now. Snow levels were lowered throughout and
are expected to reach most valley floors (minus the southern
valleys) by late Saturday as the cold air encompasses the region.
Temperatures were also trended lower to near normal by the
weekend, but will also need to be fine tuned once models better
agree. Overall we see a forecast full of uncertainties, but we
will expect better agreement once we get a little closer to this
timeframe. /Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A band of precipitation is expected to blossom over
north Idaho and eastern Washington between 17-19z along a warm
front. Precipitation over much of the region will initially be in
the form of snow. Strong low level warm advection will likely lead
to a transition to rain or rain/snow mix in Pullman, Spokane, and
Couer D`Alene between 19z-21z. The late morning/early afternoon
development of snow should limit accumulations to grassy surfaces
with the exception of airports north of the metro like Sandpoint,
Bonners Ferry and Colville where slushy runway accumulations up to
an inch will be possible. Dry/downslope advection from the
west/northwest this evening should disperse stratus in the
evening, but fog and low stratus may crop up toward Monday
morning. /GKoch


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  27  37  32  43  38 /  90  20  10  50  60  40
Coeur d`Alene  38  28  37  33  41  39 / 100  40  10  60  80  60
Pullman        41  29  40  36  46  42 /  80  60  10  60  70  30
Lewiston       50  33  45  39  50  44 /  50  60  10  60  60  20
Colville       36  25  37  30  39  36 /  90  10  10  60  60  50
Sandpoint      36  29  37  30  39  37 / 100  40  10  70  80  80
Kellogg        35  28  35  33  38  38 / 100  80  10  70  90  70
Moses Lake     46  25  41  32  48  40 /  20  10  10  20  20  10
Wenatchee      48  29  41  34  46  41 /  10  10  10  20  30  20
Omak           37  22  37  30  41  36 /  30  10  10  30  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 231209
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
409 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The mountains will receive another round of accumulating snow
this afternoon and evening. The lower elevations will experience a
mix of rain and wet snow today. Monday will be a relatively quiet
and chilly day. More rain and heavy mountain snow is expected
Monday night into Tuesday. A breezy and wet weather pattern will
persist for much of the week with the mountains receiving several
rounds of snow.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and Tonight: Another round of mountain snow is on the way
for this afternoon and evening. The mountains of the Idaho
Panhandle will likely receive additional 2 to 6 inches of snow
with amounts up to 8 inches for the ridges in southern Shoshone
county favored by northwest flow. The Cascade crest will also pick
up a quick 8 to 12 inches beginning early this morning.

The system bringing precipitation today and tonight is moving
inland at this hour (230 AM) into central British Columbia. As
the surface low tracks eastward today, Washington and north Idaho
will be in the warm sector leading to rising snow levels through
the day and increasing south winds. The primary forcing
mechanisms for precipitation will be warm/moist advection along a
warm front and vigorous westerly upslope flow into the Cascades
and Panhandle mountains. Despite the strong frontal forcing, the
models are in good agreement that the lee of the Cascades into the
Basin will be shadowed today due to mid-level, cross Cascade flow.
Places like Wenathcee, Moses Lake, and Grand Coulee probably won`t
see much (if any) precipitation today. The most significant
precipitation will likely occur this afternoon and early this
evening which isn`t good news for folks who want to see snow
accumulate. Places like Pullman, Spokane, Coeur D`Alene, and
Davenport should see precipitation in the form of snow through
early to mid afternoon. However temperatures in the mid to upper
30s will make it difficult for snow to stick except on grassy
surfaces. Places like Sandpoint, Bonners Ferry, Priest Lake and
Metaline Falls will have a better shot of 1 to 2 inch
accumulations this afternoon.

By this evening, precipitation should be confined to the Idaho
Panhandle and the Blue Mountains. Winds in the 850-700mb layer
will veer to the northwest as this system moves into Alberta. This
wind trajectory favors the mountains of Shoshone county, high
terrain of the Camas Prairie, and Blue Mountains. Elsewhere, look
for clearing skies this evening and light winds. Areas of fog
should develop in the sheltered valleys of northeast Washington
and possibly over the Palouse, West Plains, and Upper Columbia
Basin.

Monday: A flat high pressure ridge on Monday should provide a
break in the active weather on Monday at least during the morning.
Another moist warm front is progged by the models to reach
southern British Columbia by Monday afternoon. There some
uncertainty with the track of this frontal system, but the
majority of eastern Washington and north Idaho should remain dry
Monday. The northern Cascades and Okanogan Highlands may
experience some light snow Monday afternoon, but the heavier
rain/snow will arrive Monday night into Tuesday. /GKoch

Monday night through Wednesday Night...Larger scale ridging builds
in the vicinity of the west coast during this time interval and
alters the storm track pattern somewhat over time. Initially the
ridging is off the coast and allows disturbances to drop down with
a northwest to southeast trajectory and dig into any moisture
streaming over the top of the amplifying ridge and steer it down
to the south and southeast. Such an occurrence is expected Monday
night into Tuesday. By late Tuesday the ridging off the coast
stops amplifying and the ridge moves west which allows the
northwest to southeast oriented storm track and jet to remain
close in proximity to the Southern British Columbia Border and
down into Northwest Montana. The resulting close proximity of the
jet stream and potential and models hinting at various shortwaves
dropping down in the northwest flow on the east side of the narrow
ridge there is good potential for some brisk gusty winds Tuesday
and Wednesday. Since there is not much if any cold air in majority
of lowland locations for disturbances to overrun a good portion of
the lowlands in the lee of the Cascades and the North Idaho
Panhandle pops are likely to remain high for mountain locations to
the north but taper down to low to no pop amounts due to rain-
shadow development for most of this forecast interval. The ridging
and mixing brought about by disturbances dropping down the edges
of the ridge allow for the bulk of forecast temperatures to remain
on the warm side of what would be considered normal for this time
of year with an exception Wednesday night when a push of cold
Canadian air starts a cooling trend and lowers snow levels.
/Pelatti

Thanksgiving Thursday through Sunday: Once again we are faced
with the dilemma that we have seen all week and that is continued
poor model agreement in the extended forecast. For at least the
last three nights the models have flip flopped completely for the
end of the forecast. While some consistency was present for the
12Z runs and the afternoon forecast, it has all been lost with the
00Z runs. So what we have been debating for the past few days was
to buy into the warmer and drier ridge pattern for the end of the
week or take the cooler one with cold polar air dropping in from
Canada. For this forecast package I went with the cooler based on
agreement from other supporting models. The Euro today was the
cooler solution and it had good support from both the Canadian and
DGEX and even the 12Z GFS. The warmer solution this time
encompassed the 00Z and 18Z GFS along with the 12Z Euro. Funny
enough, just 24 hours ago this was exactly the opposite with the
majority in favor of the warmer solution.

The scenario that was incorporated into this forecast was a cold
polar front dropping in from Canada late Wednesday into
Thanksgiving Thursday bringing a good shot of precipitation with
moisture out ahead of the front. How to play POPs here was very
tricky and for the most part they were left unchanged until
models better agree. This would keep the mention of precip for
most throughout the extended, but if the Euro does verify we could
expect significant drying behind the cold front. Precip on
Wednesday into Thursday could lead to some less than stellar
travel conditions for turkey day mainly in the higher elevations
and far north, but due to low confidence I would hold off on
altering plans for now. Snow levels were lowered throughout and
are expected to reach most valley floors (minus the southern
valleys) by late Saturday as the cold air encompasses the region.
Temperatures were also trended lower to near normal by the
weekend, but will also need to be fine tuned once models better
agree. Overall we see a forecast full of uncertainties, but we
will expect better agreement once we get a little closer to this
timeframe. /Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A band of precipitation is expected to blossom over
north Idaho and eastern Washington between 17-19z along a warm
front. Precipitation over much of the region will initially be in
the form of snow. Strong low level warm advection will likely lead
to a transition to rain or rain/snow mix in Pullman, Spokane, and
Couer D`Alene between 19z-21z. The late morning/early afternoon
development of snow should limit accumulations to grassy surfaces
with the exception of airports north of the metro like Sandpoint,
Bonners Ferry and Colville where slushy runway accumulations up to
an inch will be possible. Dry/downslope advection from the
west/northwest this evening should disperse stratus in the
evening, but fog and low stratus may crop up toward Monday
morning. /GKoch


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  27  37  32  43  38 /  90  20  10  50  60  40
Coeur d`Alene  38  28  37  33  41  39 / 100  40  10  60  80  60
Pullman        41  29  40  36  46  42 /  80  60  10  60  70  30
Lewiston       50  33  45  39  50  44 /  50  60  10  60  60  20
Colville       36  25  37  30  39  36 /  90  10  10  60  60  50
Sandpoint      36  29  37  30  39  37 / 100  40  10  70  80  80
Kellogg        35  28  35  33  38  38 / 100  80  10  70  90  70
Moses Lake     46  25  41  32  48  40 /  20  10  10  20  20  10
Wenatchee      48  29  41  34  46  41 /  10  10  10  20  30  20
Omak           37  22  37  30  41  36 /  30  10  10  30  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 231105
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS
MORNING...WITH RAIN TURNING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER A BRIEF LULL TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...A WARM FRONT WILL RENEW RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WET WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TYPICAL LATE
NOVEMBER WEATHER IS LIKELY THANKSGIVING THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...STRONG MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING...JUST AHEAD OF A FLAT UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. A SMALL BUT RATHER VIGOROUS FRONTAL
SYSTEM IN THE WESTERLY FLOW IS MOVING INTO THE REGION...WITH RAIN
FALLING OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM RANGED
FROM 45 TO 50. THE SNOW LEVEL WAS JUST A BIT OVER 3000 FT.

THE COLD FRONT AND ITS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
WESTERN WASHINGTON FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL BRING MORE
RAIN OF COURSE...ALONG WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. MOIST
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE BEHIND IT. STEADY RAIN WILL TURN TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THE WINDS WILL EASE. THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE ANOTHER PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE. SHOWERS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND SPOTTY TONIGHT.

FAIRLY STEADY PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE ALL DAY IN THE
CASCADES...FIRST WITH THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AND
THEN WITH MOIST WESTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE
AROUND 3500 FT. SNOQUALMIE PASS -- AT 3000 FT -- MIGHT NOT GET MUCH
MORE SNOW...AS IT WILL PROBABLY BE JUST BELOW THE ELEVATION FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION. STEVENS PASS HAS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
HEAVY SNOW...SINCE IT IS JUST ABOVE 4000 FT AND THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
WILL PROBABLY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...WHILE A WARM
FRONT MOVING OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE MOVES INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN
AND HIGHER SNOW LEVELS -- IN THE 6000 TO 7000 FT RANGE -- THAT WILL
PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE THE MOST PRECIPITATION...AND ESPECIALLY
THE NORTH CASCADES. SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODEL RUNS SHOW AS MUCH AS
6 INCHES THERE DURING THE 48-HOUR PERIOD ENDING LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT.   MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY IS NOT VERY HIGH. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROBABLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...LEAVING WESTERN
WASHINGTON NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF A MOIST SOUTHWEST FETCH AND A
COOLER DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN CANADA. EARLIER MODEL RUNS
GENERALLY FAVORED THE IDEA THAT THE DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD
PREVAIL THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. MORE RECENT RUNS...ESPECIALLY
OF THE GFS...SHOW THE WETTER PATTERN DEVELOPING. WE INCREASED POPS
INTO THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT WE HAVE
DECIDED TO STAND PATE ON THE FORECAST FOR THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.   MCDONNAL

&&

.HYDROLOGY...MODELS SHOW AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION OVER
THE NORTH CASCADES DURING THE 48 HOUR PERIOD ENDING LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE SNOW LEVEL SHOULD BE 6000 TO 7000 FT. ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST RIVER FORECASTS FROM NORTHWEST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...THIS
COULD DRIVE THE NOOKSACK RIVER TO WITHIN ABOUT A FOOT OF FLOOD
STAGE. IN ADDITION SOME MODELS -- ESPECIALLY THE NAM -- SPREAD THE
PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH IN THE CASCADES...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES IN
THE BASINS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SNOHOMISH. THAT SCENARIO WOULD DRIVE
DECENT RISES ON THE SNOQUALMIE...TOLT...SKYKOMISH...SNOHOMISH...AND
STILLAGUAMISH RIVERS.

AT THIS POINT I WOULD SAY THERE IS A SLIGHT THREAT OF MINOR FLOODING
ON AT LEAST THE NOOKSACK AND POSSIBLY THE OTHER RIVERS MENTIONED
ABOVE. WE NEED TO SEE WHAT THE NEXT RUN OF THE RIVER MODELS WILL
SHOW LATER TODAY.   MCDONNAL

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE ONTO THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING THEN SHIFT WELL EAST OF
THE AREA MIDDAY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AND WILL GRADUALLY DRY
BEHIND THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW A RATHER VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS MOVING RAPIDLY
EASTWARD AND WILL MOVE ONTO THE NORTH WASHINGTON COAST BY 15Z AND
THROUGH THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON BY 18Z. LIGHTNING
DETECTION SYSTEM DATA SHOWS SEVERAL STRIKES EXTENDING SSW FROM THE
CENTRAL VANCOUVER ISLAND COAST INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THESE TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT MAY IMPACT THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND.

FOLLOWING THE FRONT...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH CEILINGS AND
PRECIPITATION BECOMING INCREASINGLY TIED TO THE TERRAIN AND A PUGET
SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE AIR MASS STABILIZES.

EXPECT CIGS GENERALLY BKN-OVC020-025 AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING
AND WITH POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE
FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING AT TIMES. VIS WILL MAINLY BE 5SM OR
MORE...BUT WILL OCCASIONALLY FALL TO 2-4 SM IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
WITH THE FRONT AND IN HEAVIER POST FRONTAL SHOWERS. ALBRECHT

KSEA...EXPECT CIGS 020-025 WITH INCREASING -RA EARLY THIS MORNING.
WIND WILL INCREASE TO S 14-18KT WITH G28 KT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
THE TERMINAL. FROPA CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 16Z AND 17Z AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY SW WIND 10-12 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CLEARING AT TIMES IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER 17Z. WSW WIND 40
KT AT 5000 FT WILL TURN TO W 45K BEHIND THE FRONT MIDDAY THEN WILL
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF A FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS THAT IS APPROACHING THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE BEING OBSERVED WITH THE FRONT OFFSHORE THAT
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL COAST OF VANCOUVER ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE DEVELOPING OVER ALL OF THE
WATERS THIS MORNING EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT. THE TREND OF THE MOST
RECENT HRRR MODEL SOLUTIONS IS TO DEVELOP GALES OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND INTO THE WEST ENTRANCE OF THE STRAIT AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THIS MORNING...SO A GALE WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR THOSE
WATERS. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA FOR A SURGE OF STRONG POST FRONTAL ONSHORE
FLOW MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL RAPIDLY RELAX THIS EVENING...AND WEAK HIGH PRES WILL GIVE
LIGHT WINDS TO THE WATERS BY EARLY MON MORNING.

FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SELY AND INCREASE SOMEWHAT AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE SW ON MON. THEN THE WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PULL UP STATIONARY SOMEWHERE FROM BETWEEN CENTRAL
VANCOUVER ISLAND AND THE WASHINGTON WATERS. EXPECT RATHER STRONG SW
FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KT TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THIS FRONT
STALLS MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING CASCADES ABOVE 3000 FT.
PZ...GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS AND ENTIRE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINING WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 231105
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS
MORNING...WITH RAIN TURNING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER A BRIEF LULL TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...A WARM FRONT WILL RENEW RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WET WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TYPICAL LATE
NOVEMBER WEATHER IS LIKELY THANKSGIVING THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...STRONG MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING...JUST AHEAD OF A FLAT UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. A SMALL BUT RATHER VIGOROUS FRONTAL
SYSTEM IN THE WESTERLY FLOW IS MOVING INTO THE REGION...WITH RAIN
FALLING OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM RANGED
FROM 45 TO 50. THE SNOW LEVEL WAS JUST A BIT OVER 3000 FT.

THE COLD FRONT AND ITS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
WESTERN WASHINGTON FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL BRING MORE
RAIN OF COURSE...ALONG WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. MOIST
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE BEHIND IT. STEADY RAIN WILL TURN TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THE WINDS WILL EASE. THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE ANOTHER PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE. SHOWERS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND SPOTTY TONIGHT.

FAIRLY STEADY PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE ALL DAY IN THE
CASCADES...FIRST WITH THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AND
THEN WITH MOIST WESTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE
AROUND 3500 FT. SNOQUALMIE PASS -- AT 3000 FT -- MIGHT NOT GET MUCH
MORE SNOW...AS IT WILL PROBABLY BE JUST BELOW THE ELEVATION FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION. STEVENS PASS HAS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
HEAVY SNOW...SINCE IT IS JUST ABOVE 4000 FT AND THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
WILL PROBABLY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...WHILE A WARM
FRONT MOVING OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE MOVES INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN
AND HIGHER SNOW LEVELS -- IN THE 6000 TO 7000 FT RANGE -- THAT WILL
PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE THE MOST PRECIPITATION...AND ESPECIALLY
THE NORTH CASCADES. SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODEL RUNS SHOW AS MUCH AS
6 INCHES THERE DURING THE 48-HOUR PERIOD ENDING LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT.   MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY IS NOT VERY HIGH. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROBABLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...LEAVING WESTERN
WASHINGTON NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF A MOIST SOUTHWEST FETCH AND A
COOLER DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN CANADA. EARLIER MODEL RUNS
GENERALLY FAVORED THE IDEA THAT THE DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD
PREVAIL THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. MORE RECENT RUNS...ESPECIALLY
OF THE GFS...SHOW THE WETTER PATTERN DEVELOPING. WE INCREASED POPS
INTO THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT WE HAVE
DECIDED TO STAND PATE ON THE FORECAST FOR THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.   MCDONNAL

&&

.HYDROLOGY...MODELS SHOW AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION OVER
THE NORTH CASCADES DURING THE 48 HOUR PERIOD ENDING LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE SNOW LEVEL SHOULD BE 6000 TO 7000 FT. ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST RIVER FORECASTS FROM NORTHWEST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...THIS
COULD DRIVE THE NOOKSACK RIVER TO WITHIN ABOUT A FOOT OF FLOOD
STAGE. IN ADDITION SOME MODELS -- ESPECIALLY THE NAM -- SPREAD THE
PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH IN THE CASCADES...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES IN
THE BASINS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SNOHOMISH. THAT SCENARIO WOULD DRIVE
DECENT RISES ON THE SNOQUALMIE...TOLT...SKYKOMISH...SNOHOMISH...AND
STILLAGUAMISH RIVERS.

AT THIS POINT I WOULD SAY THERE IS A SLIGHT THREAT OF MINOR FLOODING
ON AT LEAST THE NOOKSACK AND POSSIBLY THE OTHER RIVERS MENTIONED
ABOVE. WE NEED TO SEE WHAT THE NEXT RUN OF THE RIVER MODELS WILL
SHOW LATER TODAY.   MCDONNAL

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE ONTO THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING THEN SHIFT WELL EAST OF
THE AREA MIDDAY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AND WILL GRADUALLY DRY
BEHIND THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW A RATHER VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS MOVING RAPIDLY
EASTWARD AND WILL MOVE ONTO THE NORTH WASHINGTON COAST BY 15Z AND
THROUGH THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON BY 18Z. LIGHTNING
DETECTION SYSTEM DATA SHOWS SEVERAL STRIKES EXTENDING SSW FROM THE
CENTRAL VANCOUVER ISLAND COAST INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THESE TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT MAY IMPACT THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND.

FOLLOWING THE FRONT...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH CEILINGS AND
PRECIPITATION BECOMING INCREASINGLY TIED TO THE TERRAIN AND A PUGET
SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE AIR MASS STABILIZES.

EXPECT CIGS GENERALLY BKN-OVC020-025 AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING
AND WITH POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE
FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING AT TIMES. VIS WILL MAINLY BE 5SM OR
MORE...BUT WILL OCCASIONALLY FALL TO 2-4 SM IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
WITH THE FRONT AND IN HEAVIER POST FRONTAL SHOWERS. ALBRECHT

KSEA...EXPECT CIGS 020-025 WITH INCREASING -RA EARLY THIS MORNING.
WIND WILL INCREASE TO S 14-18KT WITH G28 KT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
THE TERMINAL. FROPA CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 16Z AND 17Z AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY SW WIND 10-12 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CLEARING AT TIMES IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER 17Z. WSW WIND 40
KT AT 5000 FT WILL TURN TO W 45K BEHIND THE FRONT MIDDAY THEN WILL
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF A FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS THAT IS APPROACHING THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE BEING OBSERVED WITH THE FRONT OFFSHORE THAT
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL COAST OF VANCOUVER ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE DEVELOPING OVER ALL OF THE
WATERS THIS MORNING EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT. THE TREND OF THE MOST
RECENT HRRR MODEL SOLUTIONS IS TO DEVELOP GALES OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND INTO THE WEST ENTRANCE OF THE STRAIT AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THIS MORNING...SO A GALE WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR THOSE
WATERS. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA FOR A SURGE OF STRONG POST FRONTAL ONSHORE
FLOW MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL RAPIDLY RELAX THIS EVENING...AND WEAK HIGH PRES WILL GIVE
LIGHT WINDS TO THE WATERS BY EARLY MON MORNING.

FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SELY AND INCREASE SOMEWHAT AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE SW ON MON. THEN THE WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PULL UP STATIONARY SOMEWHERE FROM BETWEEN CENTRAL
VANCOUVER ISLAND AND THE WASHINGTON WATERS. EXPECT RATHER STRONG SW
FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KT TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THIS FRONT
STALLS MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING CASCADES ABOVE 3000 FT.
PZ...GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS AND ENTIRE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINING WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KOTX 231053
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
253 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The mountains will receive another round of accumulating snow
this afternoon and evening. The lower elevations will experience a
mix of rain and wet snow today. Monday will be a relatively quiet
and chilly day. More rain and heavy mountain snow is expected
Monday night into Tuesday. A breezy and wet weather pattern will
persist for much of the week with the mountains receiving several
rounds of snow.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and Tonight: Another round of mountain snow is on the way
for this afternoon and evening. The mountains of the Idaho
Panhandle will likely receive additional 2 to 6 inches of snow
with amounts up to 8 inches for the ridges in southern Shoshone
county favored by northwest flow. The Cascade crest will also pick
up a quick 8 to 12 inches beginning early this morning.

The system bringing precipitation today and tonight is moving
inland at this hour (230 AM) into central British Columbia. As
the surface low tracks eastward today, Washington and north Idaho
will be in the warm sector leading to rising snow levels through
the day and increasing south winds. The primary forcing
mechanisms for precipitation will be warm/moist advection along a
warm front and vigorous westerly upslope flow into the Cascades
and Panhandle mountains. Despite the strong frontal forcing, the
models are in good agreement that the lee of the Cascades into the
Basin will be shadowed today due to mid-level, cross Cascade flow.
Places like Wenathcee, Moses Lake, and Grand Coulee probably won`t
see much (if any) precipitation today. The most significant
precipitation will likely occur this afternoon and early this
evening which isn`t good news for folks who want to see snow
accumulate. Places like Pullman, Spokane, Coeur D`Alene, and
Davenport should see precipitation in the form of snow through
early to mid afternoon. However temperatures in the mid to upper
30s will make it difficult for snow to stick except on grassy
surfaces. Places like Sandpoint, Bonners Ferry, Priest Lake and
Metaline Falls will have a better shot of 1 to 2 inch
accumulations this afternoon.

By this evening, precipitation should be confined to the Idaho
Panhandle and the Blue Mountains. Winds in the 850-700mb layer
will veer to the northwest as this system moves into Alberta. This
wind trajectory favors the mountains of Shoshone county, high
terrain of the Camas Prairie, and Blue Mountains. Elsewhere, look
for clearing skies this evening and light winds. Areas of fog
should develop in the sheltered valleys of northeast Washington
and possibly over the Palouse, West Plains, and Upper Columbia
Basin.

Monday: A flat high pressure ridge on Monday should provide a
break in the active weather on Monday at least during the morning.
Another moist warm front is progged by the models to reach
southern British Columbia by Monday afternoon. There some
uncertainty with the track of this frontal system, but the
majority of eastern Washington and north Idaho should remain dry
Monday. The northern Cascades and Okanogan Highlands may
experience some light snow Monday afternoon, but the heavier
rain/snow will arrive Monday night into Tuesday. /GKoch

Monday night through Wednesday Night...Larger scale ridging builds
in the vicinity of the west coast during this time interval and
alters the storm track pattern somewhat over time. Initially the
ridging is off the coast and allows disturbances to drop down with
a northwest to southeast trajectory and dig into any moisture
streaming over the top of the amplifying ridge and steer it down
to the south and southeast. Such an occurrence is expected Monday
night into Tuesday. By late Tuesday the ridging off the coast
stops amplifying and the ridge moves west which allows the
northwest to southeast oriented storm track and jet to remain
close in proximity to the Southern British Columbia Border and
down into Northwest Montana. The resulting close proximity of the
jet stream and potential and models hinting at various shortwaves
dropping down in the northwest flow on the east side of the narrow
ridge there is good potential for some brisk gusty winds Tuesday
and Wednesday. Since there is not much if any cold air in majority
of lowland locations for disturbances to overrun a good portion of
the lowlands in the lee of the Cascades and the North Idaho
Panhandle pops are likely to remain high for mountain locations to
the north but taper down to low to no pop amounts due to rain-
shadow development for most of this forecast interval. The ridging
and mixing brought about by disturbances dropping down the edges
of the ridge allow for the bulk of forecast temperatures to remain
on the warm side of what would be considered normal for this time
of year with an exception Wednesday night when a push of cold
Canadian air starts a cooling trend and lowers snow levels.
/Pelatti

Thanksgiving Thursday through Sunday: Once again we are faced
with the dilemma that we have seen all week and that is continued
poor model agreement in the extended forecast. For at least the
last three nights the models have flip flopped completely for the
end of the forecast. While some consistency was present for the
12Z runs and the afternoon forecast, it has all been lost with the
00Z runs. So what we have been debating for the past few days was
to buy into the warmer and drier ridge pattern for the end of the
week or take the cooler one with cold polar air dropping in from
Canada. For this forecast package I went with the cooler based on
agreement from other supporting models. The Euro today was the
cooler solution and it had good support from both the Canadian and
DGEX and even the 12Z GFS. The warmer solution this time
encompassed the 00Z and 18Z GFS along with the 12Z Euro. Funny
enough, just 24 hours ago this was exactly the opposite with the
majority in favor of the warmer solution.

The scenario that was incorporated into this forecast was a cold
polar front dropping in from Canada late Wednesday into
Thanksgiving Thursday bringing a good shot of precipitation with
moisture out ahead of the front. How to play POPs here was very
tricky and for the most part they were left unchanged until
models better agree. This would keep the mention of precip for
most throughout the extended, but if the Euro does verify we could
expect significant drying behind the cold front. Precip on
Wednesday into Thursday could lead to some less than stellar
travel conditions for turkey day mainly in the higher elevations
and far north, but due to low confidence I would hold off on
altering plans for now. Snow levels were lowered throughout and
are expected to reach most valley floors (minus the southern
valleys) by late Saturday as the cold air encompasses the region.
Temperatures were also trended lower to near normal by the
weekend, but will also need to be fine tuned once models better
agree. Overall we see a forecast full of uncertainties, but we
will expect better agreement once we get a little closer to this
timeframe. /Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The boundary layer remains saturated through this
evening. Models continue to show a low stratus deck expanding from
Idaho into eastern WA. Confidence is not high on the timing of
when stratus will expand, but it is expected that KGEG, KSFF and
KPUW will see MVFR/IFR cigs developing after 09Z tonight. Another
wet system will bring widespread precipitation Sunday with a
strong possibility for several hours of snow at KGEG/KCOE/KSZT/KPUW
...snow is expected to begin to switch over to rain between 16-19z.
The precipitation will bring cig/vsby down to IFR and even LIFR at
times through 00z Sunday. /SVH



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  27  37  32  43  38 /  90  20  10  50  60  40
Coeur d`Alene  38  28  37  33  41  39 / 100  40  10  60  80  60
Pullman        41  29  40  36  46  42 /  80  60  10  60  70  30
Lewiston       50  33  45  39  50  44 /  50  60  10  60  60  20
Colville       36  25  37  30  39  36 /  90  10  10  60  60  50
Sandpoint      36  29  37  30  39  37 / 100  40  10  70  80  80
Kellogg        35  28  35  33  38  38 / 100  80  10  70  90  70
Moses Lake     46  25  41  32  48  40 /  20  10  10  20  20  10
Wenatchee      48  29  41  34  46  41 /  10  10  10  20  30  20
Omak           37  22  37  30  41  36 /  30  10  10  30  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 231053
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
253 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
The mountains will receive another round of accumulating snow
this afternoon and evening. The lower elevations will experience a
mix of rain and wet snow today. Monday will be a relatively quiet
and chilly day. More rain and heavy mountain snow is expected
Monday night into Tuesday. A breezy and wet weather pattern will
persist for much of the week with the mountains receiving several
rounds of snow.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and Tonight: Another round of mountain snow is on the way
for this afternoon and evening. The mountains of the Idaho
Panhandle will likely receive additional 2 to 6 inches of snow
with amounts up to 8 inches for the ridges in southern Shoshone
county favored by northwest flow. The Cascade crest will also pick
up a quick 8 to 12 inches beginning early this morning.

The system bringing precipitation today and tonight is moving
inland at this hour (230 AM) into central British Columbia. As
the surface low tracks eastward today, Washington and north Idaho
will be in the warm sector leading to rising snow levels through
the day and increasing south winds. The primary forcing
mechanisms for precipitation will be warm/moist advection along a
warm front and vigorous westerly upslope flow into the Cascades
and Panhandle mountains. Despite the strong frontal forcing, the
models are in good agreement that the lee of the Cascades into the
Basin will be shadowed today due to mid-level, cross Cascade flow.
Places like Wenathcee, Moses Lake, and Grand Coulee probably won`t
see much (if any) precipitation today. The most significant
precipitation will likely occur this afternoon and early this
evening which isn`t good news for folks who want to see snow
accumulate. Places like Pullman, Spokane, Coeur D`Alene, and
Davenport should see precipitation in the form of snow through
early to mid afternoon. However temperatures in the mid to upper
30s will make it difficult for snow to stick except on grassy
surfaces. Places like Sandpoint, Bonners Ferry, Priest Lake and
Metaline Falls will have a better shot of 1 to 2 inch
accumulations this afternoon.

By this evening, precipitation should be confined to the Idaho
Panhandle and the Blue Mountains. Winds in the 850-700mb layer
will veer to the northwest as this system moves into Alberta. This
wind trajectory favors the mountains of Shoshone county, high
terrain of the Camas Prairie, and Blue Mountains. Elsewhere, look
for clearing skies this evening and light winds. Areas of fog
should develop in the sheltered valleys of northeast Washington
and possibly over the Palouse, West Plains, and Upper Columbia
Basin.

Monday: A flat high pressure ridge on Monday should provide a
break in the active weather on Monday at least during the morning.
Another moist warm front is progged by the models to reach
southern British Columbia by Monday afternoon. There some
uncertainty with the track of this frontal system, but the
majority of eastern Washington and north Idaho should remain dry
Monday. The northern Cascades and Okanogan Highlands may
experience some light snow Monday afternoon, but the heavier
rain/snow will arrive Monday night into Tuesday. /GKoch

Monday night through Wednesday Night...Larger scale ridging builds
in the vicinity of the west coast during this time interval and
alters the storm track pattern somewhat over time. Initially the
ridging is off the coast and allows disturbances to drop down with
a northwest to southeast trajectory and dig into any moisture
streaming over the top of the amplifying ridge and steer it down
to the south and southeast. Such an occurrence is expected Monday
night into Tuesday. By late Tuesday the ridging off the coast
stops amplifying and the ridge moves west which allows the
northwest to southeast oriented storm track and jet to remain
close in proximity to the Southern British Columbia Border and
down into Northwest Montana. The resulting close proximity of the
jet stream and potential and models hinting at various shortwaves
dropping down in the northwest flow on the east side of the narrow
ridge there is good potential for some brisk gusty winds Tuesday
and Wednesday. Since there is not much if any cold air in majority
of lowland locations for disturbances to overrun a good portion of
the lowlands in the lee of the Cascades and the North Idaho
Panhandle pops are likely to remain high for mountain locations to
the north but taper down to low to no pop amounts due to rain-
shadow development for most of this forecast interval. The ridging
and mixing brought about by disturbances dropping down the edges
of the ridge allow for the bulk of forecast temperatures to remain
on the warm side of what would be considered normal for this time
of year with an exception Wednesday night when a push of cold
Canadian air starts a cooling trend and lowers snow levels.
/Pelatti

Thanksgiving Thursday through Sunday: Once again we are faced
with the dilemma that we have seen all week and that is continued
poor model agreement in the extended forecast. For at least the
last three nights the models have flip flopped completely for the
end of the forecast. While some consistency was present for the
12Z runs and the afternoon forecast, it has all been lost with the
00Z runs. So what we have been debating for the past few days was
to buy into the warmer and drier ridge pattern for the end of the
week or take the cooler one with cold polar air dropping in from
Canada. For this forecast package I went with the cooler based on
agreement from other supporting models. The Euro today was the
cooler solution and it had good support from both the Canadian and
DGEX and even the 12Z GFS. The warmer solution this time
encompassed the 00Z and 18Z GFS along with the 12Z Euro. Funny
enough, just 24 hours ago this was exactly the opposite with the
majority in favor of the warmer solution.

The scenario that was incorporated into this forecast was a cold
polar front dropping in from Canada late Wednesday into
Thanksgiving Thursday bringing a good shot of precipitation with
moisture out ahead of the front. How to play POPs here was very
tricky and for the most part they were left unchanged until
models better agree. This would keep the mention of precip for
most throughout the extended, but if the Euro does verify we could
expect significant drying behind the cold front. Precip on
Wednesday into Thursday could lead to some less than stellar
travel conditions for turkey day mainly in the higher elevations
and far north, but due to low confidence I would hold off on
altering plans for now. Snow levels were lowered throughout and
are expected to reach most valley floors (minus the southern
valleys) by late Saturday as the cold air encompasses the region.
Temperatures were also trended lower to near normal by the
weekend, but will also need to be fine tuned once models better
agree. Overall we see a forecast full of uncertainties, but we
will expect better agreement once we get a little closer to this
timeframe. /Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The boundary layer remains saturated through this
evening. Models continue to show a low stratus deck expanding from
Idaho into eastern WA. Confidence is not high on the timing of
when stratus will expand, but it is expected that KGEG, KSFF and
KPUW will see MVFR/IFR cigs developing after 09Z tonight. Another
wet system will bring widespread precipitation Sunday with a
strong possibility for several hours of snow at KGEG/KCOE/KSZT/KPUW
...snow is expected to begin to switch over to rain between 16-19z.
The precipitation will bring cig/vsby down to IFR and even LIFR at
times through 00z Sunday. /SVH



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  27  37  32  43  38 /  90  20  10  50  60  40
Coeur d`Alene  38  28  37  33  41  39 / 100  40  10  60  80  60
Pullman        41  29  40  36  46  42 /  80  60  10  60  70  30
Lewiston       50  33  45  39  50  44 /  50  60  10  60  60  20
Colville       36  25  37  30  39  36 /  90  10  10  60  60  50
Sandpoint      36  29  37  30  39  37 / 100  40  10  70  80  80
Kellogg        35  28  35  33  38  38 / 100  80  10  70  90  70
Moses Lake     46  25  41  32  48  40 /  20  10  10  20  20  10
Wenatchee      48  29  41  34  46  41 /  10  10  10  20  30  20
Omak           37  22  37  30  41  36 /  30  10  10  30  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 231041
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
241 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE
NEXT FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
MIDDAY TODAY...MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MINOR FOR THE NORTHERN OREGON PASSES. A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO CALIFORNIA AND OREGON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK ENOUGH FOR SYSTEMS TO CLIP OUR NORTHERN ZONES WITH OCCASIONAL
WET WEATHER. VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY BUILD IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH FOG POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE PERSISTENT
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY
BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION FOR THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ARE SHOWING BETWEEN 0.01-0.05 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE PAST 3
HOURS ACROSS THE COAST RANGE AND INLAND VALLEYS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER THE CASCADES. THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL BAND
IS ALREADY POPPING UP ON KATX AND KLGX RADARS IN WASHINGTON...WITH
EMBEDDED LIGHTNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS.

THE 06Z GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING DECENT CAPE VALUES FOR OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...AND GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AS
SEEN ON RADAR SO FAR THIS MORNING...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER OUR SW WASHINGTON/NW OREGON
COASTAL WATERS.

THERE HAS ALSO BEEN ENOUGH CLEARING THIS MORNING TO MAINTAIN SOME
LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS. EXPECT ANY LINGERING
FOG TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE INCREASING RAIN AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL BE FOCUSED
FURTHER NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS
NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND IN PARTICULAR THE SW WASHINGTON
CASCADES. 06Z NAM AND GFS SHOW A BULLSEYE OF ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BEFORE
MODELS HAVE THE FRONT SAG FURTHER SOUTHEAST. WITH SNOW LEVELS STILL
AROUND 4000 FT...STILL EXPECTING ABOUT 6-9 INCHES OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL IMPACT THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES... WHILE
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW COULD STILL FALL OVER THE NW OREGON CASCADES AS
THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH LATER TODAY. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WILL SEE
MUCH LESS.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT COOL AND RAINY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK RATHER MARGINAL...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
TOPPING OUT AROUND 0.15 INCHES OF RAIN IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. LOWER
PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE REGION FAIRLY DRY BUT CLOUDY. BUT
THE THREAT FOR VALLEY FOG INCREASES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COAST. MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A FEW DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE
AND BRINGING SOME PRECIP MAINLY TO THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST ZONES BY
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT THIS PATTERN OF NORTHERN SHOWERS WITH SOUTHERN
VALLEY AND COASTAL FOG TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /27

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS ARE
ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY. BUT ONCE
WE GET TO THANKSGIVING MORNING...MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY CONCERNING THE
NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION THANKSGIVING DAY.
THE 06Z GFS SHOWS A RATHER WELL-ORGANIZED FRONTAL BAND REACHING THE
SW WASHINGTON/NW OREGON COAST IN THE MORNING...WITH RAIN SPREADING
INLAND BY THE AFTERNOON...RIGHT IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING DINNER. WILL
HAVE TO SEE WHAT THE 12Z ECMWF DOES WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WHETHER OR
NOT IT MAINTAINS ITS LIGHTER RAIN/RIDGY SOLUTION. A MUCH
STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH
COULD POSE A THREAT TO TRAVELERS RETURNING AFTER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY. DETAILS AT THIS POINT ARE STILL UNKNOWN AND WILL BE REFINED
WITH FUTURE UPDATES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. /64/27

&&

.AVIATION...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO VFR
CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF SITES ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...OCCASIONALLY ENOUGH
CLEARING WILL OCCUR FOR SCATTERED TAF SITES TO DETERIORATE INTO
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN SUBSEQUENTLY
IMPROVE AS THE NEXT SHOWER MOVES OVERHEAD.

A FRONT OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST IS PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND A
NARROW BAND OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES
INTO NORTHWEST OREGON...BUT IT MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KAST AND THE KPDX METRO TAF SITES TOWARDS MIDDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY
FOR THE PORTLAND METRO TAF SITES. FARTHER SOUTH WHERE CLEARING
THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR...IFR CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP AT KEUG...KSLE AND EVEN KHIO TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD
TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH A DYING FRONT MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE CIGS INTO MVFR. THERE IS
A CHANCE THESE CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST WELL INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...OR PERHAPS DETERIORATE INTO HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THESE DETAILS IS LOW AT THIS POINT. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST IS PRODUCING A NARROW
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN A BURST OF LOW END GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS OF 35 KT MAY SURFACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING
AS THIS BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES THROUGH. CONTINUED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS UPSTREAM TO SEE
IF A SHORT FUSED GALE WARNING IS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS TO TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON...AND SEAS TO PEAK IN THE
MID TEENS BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE WATERS LATE MONDAY...BUT ASIDE
FROM SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT. WINDS MAY STAY A BIT GUSTIER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS EARLY TO MID WEEK BEFORE A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE WATERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOW END GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS MIGHT BE SQUEEZED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM AT SOME POINT...BUT
THE SCENARIO DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT PROMISING FOR A SOLID GALE
FORCE OR HIGHER WIND EVENT FOR THE WATERS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST
    THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
    FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
   OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
    PST MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 231041
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
241 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE
NEXT FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
MIDDAY TODAY...MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MINOR FOR THE NORTHERN OREGON PASSES. A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO CALIFORNIA AND OREGON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK ENOUGH FOR SYSTEMS TO CLIP OUR NORTHERN ZONES WITH OCCASIONAL
WET WEATHER. VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY BUILD IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH FOG POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE PERSISTENT
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY
BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION FOR THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ARE SHOWING BETWEEN 0.01-0.05 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE PAST 3
HOURS ACROSS THE COAST RANGE AND INLAND VALLEYS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER THE CASCADES. THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL BAND
IS ALREADY POPPING UP ON KATX AND KLGX RADARS IN WASHINGTON...WITH
EMBEDDED LIGHTNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS.

THE 06Z GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING DECENT CAPE VALUES FOR OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...AND GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AS
SEEN ON RADAR SO FAR THIS MORNING...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER OUR SW WASHINGTON/NW OREGON
COASTAL WATERS.

THERE HAS ALSO BEEN ENOUGH CLEARING THIS MORNING TO MAINTAIN SOME
LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS. EXPECT ANY LINGERING
FOG TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE INCREASING RAIN AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL BE FOCUSED
FURTHER NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS
NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND IN PARTICULAR THE SW WASHINGTON
CASCADES. 06Z NAM AND GFS SHOW A BULLSEYE OF ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BEFORE
MODELS HAVE THE FRONT SAG FURTHER SOUTHEAST. WITH SNOW LEVELS STILL
AROUND 4000 FT...STILL EXPECTING ABOUT 6-9 INCHES OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL IMPACT THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES... WHILE
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW COULD STILL FALL OVER THE NW OREGON CASCADES AS
THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH LATER TODAY. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WILL SEE
MUCH LESS.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT COOL AND RAINY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK RATHER MARGINAL...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
TOPPING OUT AROUND 0.15 INCHES OF RAIN IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. LOWER
PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE REGION FAIRLY DRY BUT CLOUDY. BUT
THE THREAT FOR VALLEY FOG INCREASES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COAST. MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A FEW DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE
AND BRINGING SOME PRECIP MAINLY TO THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST ZONES BY
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT THIS PATTERN OF NORTHERN SHOWERS WITH SOUTHERN
VALLEY AND COASTAL FOG TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /27

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS ARE
ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY. BUT ONCE
WE GET TO THANKSGIVING MORNING...MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY CONCERNING THE
NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION THANKSGIVING DAY.
THE 06Z GFS SHOWS A RATHER WELL-ORGANIZED FRONTAL BAND REACHING THE
SW WASHINGTON/NW OREGON COAST IN THE MORNING...WITH RAIN SPREADING
INLAND BY THE AFTERNOON...RIGHT IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING DINNER. WILL
HAVE TO SEE WHAT THE 12Z ECMWF DOES WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WHETHER OR
NOT IT MAINTAINS ITS LIGHTER RAIN/RIDGY SOLUTION. A MUCH
STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH
COULD POSE A THREAT TO TRAVELERS RETURNING AFTER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY. DETAILS AT THIS POINT ARE STILL UNKNOWN AND WILL BE REFINED
WITH FUTURE UPDATES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. /64/27

&&

.AVIATION...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO VFR
CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF SITES ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...OCCASIONALLY ENOUGH
CLEARING WILL OCCUR FOR SCATTERED TAF SITES TO DETERIORATE INTO
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN SUBSEQUENTLY
IMPROVE AS THE NEXT SHOWER MOVES OVERHEAD.

A FRONT OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST IS PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND A
NARROW BAND OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES
INTO NORTHWEST OREGON...BUT IT MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KAST AND THE KPDX METRO TAF SITES TOWARDS MIDDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY
FOR THE PORTLAND METRO TAF SITES. FARTHER SOUTH WHERE CLEARING
THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR...IFR CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP AT KEUG...KSLE AND EVEN KHIO TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD
TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH A DYING FRONT MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE CIGS INTO MVFR. THERE IS
A CHANCE THESE CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST WELL INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...OR PERHAPS DETERIORATE INTO HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THESE DETAILS IS LOW AT THIS POINT. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST IS PRODUCING A NARROW
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN A BURST OF LOW END GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS OF 35 KT MAY SURFACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING
AS THIS BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES THROUGH. CONTINUED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS UPSTREAM TO SEE
IF A SHORT FUSED GALE WARNING IS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS TO TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON...AND SEAS TO PEAK IN THE
MID TEENS BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE WATERS LATE MONDAY...BUT ASIDE
FROM SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT. WINDS MAY STAY A BIT GUSTIER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS EARLY TO MID WEEK BEFORE A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE WATERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOW END GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS MIGHT BE SQUEEZED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM AT SOME POINT...BUT
THE SCENARIO DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT PROMISING FOR A SOLID GALE
FORCE OR HIGHER WIND EVENT FOR THE WATERS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST
    THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
    FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
   OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
    PST MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 231041
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
241 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE
NEXT FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
MIDDAY TODAY...MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MINOR FOR THE NORTHERN OREGON PASSES. A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO CALIFORNIA AND OREGON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK ENOUGH FOR SYSTEMS TO CLIP OUR NORTHERN ZONES WITH OCCASIONAL
WET WEATHER. VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY BUILD IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH FOG POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE PERSISTENT
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY
BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION FOR THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ARE SHOWING BETWEEN 0.01-0.05 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE PAST 3
HOURS ACROSS THE COAST RANGE AND INLAND VALLEYS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER THE CASCADES. THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL BAND
IS ALREADY POPPING UP ON KATX AND KLGX RADARS IN WASHINGTON...WITH
EMBEDDED LIGHTNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS.

THE 06Z GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING DECENT CAPE VALUES FOR OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...AND GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AS
SEEN ON RADAR SO FAR THIS MORNING...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER OUR SW WASHINGTON/NW OREGON
COASTAL WATERS.

THERE HAS ALSO BEEN ENOUGH CLEARING THIS MORNING TO MAINTAIN SOME
LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS. EXPECT ANY LINGERING
FOG TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE INCREASING RAIN AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL BE FOCUSED
FURTHER NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS
NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND IN PARTICULAR THE SW WASHINGTON
CASCADES. 06Z NAM AND GFS SHOW A BULLSEYE OF ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BEFORE
MODELS HAVE THE FRONT SAG FURTHER SOUTHEAST. WITH SNOW LEVELS STILL
AROUND 4000 FT...STILL EXPECTING ABOUT 6-9 INCHES OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL IMPACT THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES... WHILE
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW COULD STILL FALL OVER THE NW OREGON CASCADES AS
THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH LATER TODAY. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WILL SEE
MUCH LESS.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT COOL AND RAINY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK RATHER MARGINAL...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
TOPPING OUT AROUND 0.15 INCHES OF RAIN IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. LOWER
PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE REGION FAIRLY DRY BUT CLOUDY. BUT
THE THREAT FOR VALLEY FOG INCREASES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COAST. MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A FEW DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE
AND BRINGING SOME PRECIP MAINLY TO THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST ZONES BY
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT THIS PATTERN OF NORTHERN SHOWERS WITH SOUTHERN
VALLEY AND COASTAL FOG TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /27

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS ARE
ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY. BUT ONCE
WE GET TO THANKSGIVING MORNING...MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY CONCERNING THE
NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION THANKSGIVING DAY.
THE 06Z GFS SHOWS A RATHER WELL-ORGANIZED FRONTAL BAND REACHING THE
SW WASHINGTON/NW OREGON COAST IN THE MORNING...WITH RAIN SPREADING
INLAND BY THE AFTERNOON...RIGHT IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING DINNER. WILL
HAVE TO SEE WHAT THE 12Z ECMWF DOES WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WHETHER OR
NOT IT MAINTAINS ITS LIGHTER RAIN/RIDGY SOLUTION. A MUCH
STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH
COULD POSE A THREAT TO TRAVELERS RETURNING AFTER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY. DETAILS AT THIS POINT ARE STILL UNKNOWN AND WILL BE REFINED
WITH FUTURE UPDATES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. /64/27

&&

.AVIATION...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO VFR
CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF SITES ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...OCCASIONALLY ENOUGH
CLEARING WILL OCCUR FOR SCATTERED TAF SITES TO DETERIORATE INTO
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN SUBSEQUENTLY
IMPROVE AS THE NEXT SHOWER MOVES OVERHEAD.

A FRONT OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST IS PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND A
NARROW BAND OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES
INTO NORTHWEST OREGON...BUT IT MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KAST AND THE KPDX METRO TAF SITES TOWARDS MIDDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY
FOR THE PORTLAND METRO TAF SITES. FARTHER SOUTH WHERE CLEARING
THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR...IFR CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP AT KEUG...KSLE AND EVEN KHIO TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD
TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH A DYING FRONT MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE CIGS INTO MVFR. THERE IS
A CHANCE THESE CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST WELL INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...OR PERHAPS DETERIORATE INTO HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THESE DETAILS IS LOW AT THIS POINT. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST IS PRODUCING A NARROW
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN A BURST OF LOW END GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS OF 35 KT MAY SURFACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING
AS THIS BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES THROUGH. CONTINUED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS UPSTREAM TO SEE
IF A SHORT FUSED GALE WARNING IS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS TO TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON...AND SEAS TO PEAK IN THE
MID TEENS BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE WATERS LATE MONDAY...BUT ASIDE
FROM SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT. WINDS MAY STAY A BIT GUSTIER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS EARLY TO MID WEEK BEFORE A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE WATERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOW END GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS MIGHT BE SQUEEZED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM AT SOME POINT...BUT
THE SCENARIO DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT PROMISING FOR A SOLID GALE
FORCE OR HIGHER WIND EVENT FOR THE WATERS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST
    THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
    FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
   OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
    PST MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 231041
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
241 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE
NEXT FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
MIDDAY TODAY...MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MINOR FOR THE NORTHERN OREGON PASSES. A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO CALIFORNIA AND OREGON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK ENOUGH FOR SYSTEMS TO CLIP OUR NORTHERN ZONES WITH OCCASIONAL
WET WEATHER. VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY BUILD IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH FOG POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE PERSISTENT
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY
BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION FOR THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ARE SHOWING BETWEEN 0.01-0.05 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE PAST 3
HOURS ACROSS THE COAST RANGE AND INLAND VALLEYS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER THE CASCADES. THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL BAND
IS ALREADY POPPING UP ON KATX AND KLGX RADARS IN WASHINGTON...WITH
EMBEDDED LIGHTNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS.

THE 06Z GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING DECENT CAPE VALUES FOR OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...AND GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AS
SEEN ON RADAR SO FAR THIS MORNING...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER OUR SW WASHINGTON/NW OREGON
COASTAL WATERS.

THERE HAS ALSO BEEN ENOUGH CLEARING THIS MORNING TO MAINTAIN SOME
LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS. EXPECT ANY LINGERING
FOG TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE INCREASING RAIN AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL BE FOCUSED
FURTHER NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS
NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND IN PARTICULAR THE SW WASHINGTON
CASCADES. 06Z NAM AND GFS SHOW A BULLSEYE OF ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BEFORE
MODELS HAVE THE FRONT SAG FURTHER SOUTHEAST. WITH SNOW LEVELS STILL
AROUND 4000 FT...STILL EXPECTING ABOUT 6-9 INCHES OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL IMPACT THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES... WHILE
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW COULD STILL FALL OVER THE NW OREGON CASCADES AS
THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH LATER TODAY. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WILL SEE
MUCH LESS.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT COOL AND RAINY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK RATHER MARGINAL...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
TOPPING OUT AROUND 0.15 INCHES OF RAIN IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. LOWER
PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE REGION FAIRLY DRY BUT CLOUDY. BUT
THE THREAT FOR VALLEY FOG INCREASES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL COAST. MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A FEW DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE
AND BRINGING SOME PRECIP MAINLY TO THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST ZONES BY
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT THIS PATTERN OF NORTHERN SHOWERS WITH SOUTHERN
VALLEY AND COASTAL FOG TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /27

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS ARE
ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY. BUT ONCE
WE GET TO THANKSGIVING MORNING...MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY CONCERNING THE
NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION THANKSGIVING DAY.
THE 06Z GFS SHOWS A RATHER WELL-ORGANIZED FRONTAL BAND REACHING THE
SW WASHINGTON/NW OREGON COAST IN THE MORNING...WITH RAIN SPREADING
INLAND BY THE AFTERNOON...RIGHT IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING DINNER. WILL
HAVE TO SEE WHAT THE 12Z ECMWF DOES WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WHETHER OR
NOT IT MAINTAINS ITS LIGHTER RAIN/RIDGY SOLUTION. A MUCH
STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH
COULD POSE A THREAT TO TRAVELERS RETURNING AFTER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY. DETAILS AT THIS POINT ARE STILL UNKNOWN AND WILL BE REFINED
WITH FUTURE UPDATES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. /64/27

&&

.AVIATION...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO VFR
CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF SITES ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...OCCASIONALLY ENOUGH
CLEARING WILL OCCUR FOR SCATTERED TAF SITES TO DETERIORATE INTO
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN SUBSEQUENTLY
IMPROVE AS THE NEXT SHOWER MOVES OVERHEAD.

A FRONT OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST IS PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND A
NARROW BAND OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES
INTO NORTHWEST OREGON...BUT IT MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KAST AND THE KPDX METRO TAF SITES TOWARDS MIDDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY
FOR THE PORTLAND METRO TAF SITES. FARTHER SOUTH WHERE CLEARING
THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR...IFR CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP AT KEUG...KSLE AND EVEN KHIO TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD
TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH A DYING FRONT MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE CIGS INTO MVFR. THERE IS
A CHANCE THESE CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST WELL INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...OR PERHAPS DETERIORATE INTO HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THESE DETAILS IS LOW AT THIS POINT. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST IS PRODUCING A NARROW
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN A BURST OF LOW END GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS OF 35 KT MAY SURFACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING
AS THIS BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES THROUGH. CONTINUED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS UPSTREAM TO SEE
IF A SHORT FUSED GALE WARNING IS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS TO TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON...AND SEAS TO PEAK IN THE
MID TEENS BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE WATERS LATE MONDAY...BUT ASIDE
FROM SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT. WINDS MAY STAY A BIT GUSTIER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS EARLY TO MID WEEK BEFORE A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE WATERS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOW END GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS MIGHT BE SQUEEZED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM AT SOME POINT...BUT
THE SCENARIO DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT PROMISING FOR A SOLID GALE
FORCE OR HIGHER WIND EVENT FOR THE WATERS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST
    THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
    FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
   OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
    PST MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 230626
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1026 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain and snow showers will pass through the southeast
tonight. Another round of rain and snow will arrive Sunday and
could make for slick conditions on area passes. The mountains
will receive another round of heavy snow Monday night into
Tuesday. A break in the active weather pattern will be possible
late in the week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
The shortwave weather disturbance that moved across the southeast
portion of the forecast area has pushed southeast of the region
late this evening. Web cams over the Camas Prairie indicate that
the snowfall over this area has stopped with only some lingering
showers expected for the rest of tonight. As such, the Winter
Weather Advisory has been allowed to expire over the Camas
Prairie, but will remain for the Central Panhandle Mtns with
Sunday`s weather system.

The next weather system off of the eastern Pacific is beginning to
move into western WA. This will result in snow picking up over the
Cascade Mountains early this morning. Light snow is then expected
to cross into the eastern half of the forecast area through the
morning hours. I did adjust snow levels up a little bit late in
the morning into the early afternoon. Strong southerly flow at low
levels should result in a change over from wet snow to rain by the
early afternoon across the basin into the Spokane and Coeur
d`Alene areas. With current temperatures hovering right around
freezing, this could occur fairly quickly as those southerly winds
pick up. /SVH


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The boundary layer remains saturated through this
evening. Models continue to show a low stratus deck expanding from
Idaho into eastern WA. Confidence is not high on the timing of
when stratus will expand, but it is expected that KGEG, KSFF and
KPUW will see MVFR/IFR cigs developing after 09Z tonight. Another
wet system will bring widespread precipitation Sunday with a
strong possibility for several hours of snow at KGEG/KCOE/KSZT/KPUW
...snow is expected to begin to switch over to rain between 16-19z.
The precipitation will bring cig/vsby down to IFR and even LIFR at
times through 00z Sunday. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        31  38  28  37  32  43 /  10  90  30  10  50  60
Coeur d`Alene  31  38  29  37  33  41 /  10 100  50  20  60  80
Pullman        34  40  32  40  35  46 /  20 100  50  10  60  70
Lewiston       38  45  33  45  38  50 /  10  60  50  10  60  60
Colville       25  37  23  37  30  39 /  10  80  30  20  60  60
Sandpoint      31  36  29  37  31  39 /  10 100  50  30  70  80
Kellogg        32  35  31  35  32  38 /  50 100  70  20  70  90
Moses Lake     29  43  28  41  33  48 /   0  20  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      34  42  32  41  35  46 /  10  40  10  10  20  30
Omak           28  37  26  37  30  41 /  10  50  10  20  30  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 230626
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1026 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain and snow showers will pass through the southeast
tonight. Another round of rain and snow will arrive Sunday and
could make for slick conditions on area passes. The mountains
will receive another round of heavy snow Monday night into
Tuesday. A break in the active weather pattern will be possible
late in the week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
The shortwave weather disturbance that moved across the southeast
portion of the forecast area has pushed southeast of the region
late this evening. Web cams over the Camas Prairie indicate that
the snowfall over this area has stopped with only some lingering
showers expected for the rest of tonight. As such, the Winter
Weather Advisory has been allowed to expire over the Camas
Prairie, but will remain for the Central Panhandle Mtns with
Sunday`s weather system.

The next weather system off of the eastern Pacific is beginning to
move into western WA. This will result in snow picking up over the
Cascade Mountains early this morning. Light snow is then expected
to cross into the eastern half of the forecast area through the
morning hours. I did adjust snow levels up a little bit late in
the morning into the early afternoon. Strong southerly flow at low
levels should result in a change over from wet snow to rain by the
early afternoon across the basin into the Spokane and Coeur
d`Alene areas. With current temperatures hovering right around
freezing, this could occur fairly quickly as those southerly winds
pick up. /SVH


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The boundary layer remains saturated through this
evening. Models continue to show a low stratus deck expanding from
Idaho into eastern WA. Confidence is not high on the timing of
when stratus will expand, but it is expected that KGEG, KSFF and
KPUW will see MVFR/IFR cigs developing after 09Z tonight. Another
wet system will bring widespread precipitation Sunday with a
strong possibility for several hours of snow at KGEG/KCOE/KSZT/KPUW
...snow is expected to begin to switch over to rain between 16-19z.
The precipitation will bring cig/vsby down to IFR and even LIFR at
times through 00z Sunday. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        31  38  28  37  32  43 /  10  90  30  10  50  60
Coeur d`Alene  31  38  29  37  33  41 /  10 100  50  20  60  80
Pullman        34  40  32  40  35  46 /  20 100  50  10  60  70
Lewiston       38  45  33  45  38  50 /  10  60  50  10  60  60
Colville       25  37  23  37  30  39 /  10  80  30  20  60  60
Sandpoint      31  36  29  37  31  39 /  10 100  50  30  70  80
Kellogg        32  35  31  35  32  38 /  50 100  70  20  70  90
Moses Lake     29  43  28  41  33  48 /   0  20  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      34  42  32  41  35  46 /  10  40  10  10  20  30
Omak           28  37  26  37  30  41 /  10  50  10  20  30  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 230531
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
930 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AND LATE
TONIGHT. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SUNDAY MORNING...MOVING SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES...BUT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR FOR THE NORTHERN OREGON
PASSES. A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO CALIFORNIA AND OREGON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH FOR SYSTEMS TO
CLIP OUR NORTHERN ZONES WITH OCCASIONAL WET WEATHER. VALLEY
INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY BUILD IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE
VALLEY...WITH FOG POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE PERSISTENT NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION
FOR THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.EVENING UPDATE...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS REMAIN...BUT OVERALL THE AIR MASS IS BECOMING MORE STABLE.
COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES HAS ALSO DECREASED...SO WE
CANCELLED TONIGHTS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY A LITTLE EARLY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH
OR TWO ABOVE 3500-4000 FT.

THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN SOME PATCHES OF CLEARING THIS EVENING...
ALLOWING FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE WE COOLED LOW TEMPS
BY A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT IN THE VALLEYS...AND ADDED A LITTLE MORE FOG
TO THE FORECAST.

LOOKING FURTHER NORTH...A WELL-DEFINED AND COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS PUSHING INTO HAIDA GWAII...WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING
OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS SECONDARY SYSTEM WILL BE THE ONE
RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING ANOTHER FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE WA COAST BY SUNRISE AND
SPREADING SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN AROUND
4000 FEET MUCH OF THE DAY. COMBINE THIS WITH DECENT OROGRAPHICS AND
STRONG JET DYNAMICS...AND IT APPEARS OUR SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH
WA CASCADES LOOKS GOOD. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE
IN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE JET OVER WASHINGTON. MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SHARP QPF GRADIENT SOUTH OF
THE COLUMBIA. THEREFORE THE OREGON CASCADES REMAIN OUT OF THE SNOW
ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY...BUT MOUNT HOOD MAY RECEIVE CLOSE TO THE
NECESSARY 6 INCHES FOR AN ADVISORY. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WILL SEE MUCH
LESS.  WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 256 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A FEW UPPER SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NE PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW THIS EVENING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE ARE
CURRENTLY AROUND 4500 FEET. WEB CAMS SHOWS SNOW SHOWERS AT THE
WILLAMETTE...SANTIAM...AND TOMBSTONE PASSES WHICH ARE AT AROUND
5100...4800...AND 4200 FEET RESPECTIVELY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE SNOW
LEVEL IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN 4000 AND 4000 FEET. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL
CHANGE VERY LITTLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE SHOWERS ARE DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS MORE SHOWERS OFFSHORE APPROACHING THE AREA. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DETECTED WITH THESE OFFSHORE SHOWERS AND HAVE CONTINUED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 7PM. SINCE THESE SHOWERS MAY NOT
MAKE IT TO THE CASCADES UNTIL AROUND 9 PM AM HESITANT TO END THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT MIDNIGHT END
TIME...EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE A CONSIDERATE BREAK IN SHOWERS
BETWEEN 4 AND 9 PM.

THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. CLOUD BREAKS MAY LEAD TO
RADIATION COOLING AND FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS SOUTH OF SALEM. THE
NORTH IS LESS LIKELY TO HAVE FOG DUE TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND
POSSIBLY CLOUDIER SKIES. THE CLOUDIER SKIES WILL BE DUE TO THE NEXT
APPROACHING FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW.

DESPITE THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT WILL SNEAK
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS FRONT DOES NOT LOOK WELL DEFINED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY YET...BUT THE MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN RAIN AT THE SW WASHINGTON SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE...SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.

THE HIGHEST QPF WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER WHERE
THE SW WASHINGTON COAST AND THE WILLAPA HILLS CAN EXPECT AROUND A
HALF AN INCH OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SW WASHINGTON
CASCADES WILL SEE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS...AROUND 0.75 TO 1 INCH FOR
ELEVATIONS BELOW 4000 FEET...AND POSSIBLY 4 TO 9 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
ADDITIONAL SNOW ABOVE 4000 FEET. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED ANOTHER WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
4000 FEET.

PRECIPITATION WILL BE LESS FOR NW OREGON AND EXPECT AMOUNTS TO
BECOME GRADUALLY LESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH TOTALS FROM 0.40
INCH JUST NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER TO 0.10 INCHES ACROSS LANE COUNTY.

SHOWERS WILL DRAMATICALLY DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND EXPECT
MORE VALLEY FOG MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...BUT NW
OREGON WILL BE BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE TO THE SW AND ONE TO
THE NW. MODELS ARE LEANING TOWARDS KEEPING THESE STORMS OFFSHORE
MONDAY AND HAVE REDUCED POPS QUITE A BIT. HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF
THESE TWO STORMS WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE COAST AND
CASCADES.

THE TWO WEAK STORMS MAY MERGE OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING AND PUSH
ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT ON THIS BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS. THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD
BRING WARMER AIR TO THE REGION AND RAISE SNOW LEVELS WELL ABOVE THE
PASSES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TJ

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING OUT ON TUESDAY.
THEY TEND TO KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH WHICH JUSTIFIED
LOWERING THE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT KEEPING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
ALONG THE COAST. THE RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY...BUT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. A MUCH
STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH
COULD POSE A THREAT TO TRAVELERS RETURNING AFTER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY. DETAILS AT THIS POINT ARE STILL UNKNOWN AND WILL BE REFINED
WITH FUTURE UPDATES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. /64

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG OR LOW STRATUS WILL
FORM OVERNIGHT IN THE VALLEY PARTICULARLY. THINK IT WILL STAY
WELL MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP VFR IN CONTROL AT THE COAST. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL WORK IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUN MORNING...BRINGING
INCREASING RAIN AND LIKELY MVFR CIGS TO THE NORTHERNMOST TAF SITES
STARTING BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. THE FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOR
LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD
TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO SUN MORNING. PATCHY IFR FOG
IS POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z IF SKIES CLEAR OUT. A FRONT MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS IN BY
AROUND 18Z SUN. BOWEN/PYLE

&&

.MARINE...A GENERAL LULL IN W/NW WINDS SHOULD LAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT....BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE AGAIN SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE YET ANOTHER FRONT
BRINGS MORE SMALL CRAFT WINDS ON MON.

SEAS REMAIN AROUND 12 TO 14 FT AND SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE
THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT SUNDAY...SEAS MAY
INCREASE INTO THE MID TEENS. WITH ANOTHER FRONT ON MON AND
SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH TO OUR NORTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT UNTIL MIDWEEK. THE LATEST
ENP WAVE GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS THEY FALL BELOW 10 FT TUE OR WED.
BOWEN/PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 AM TO 2 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 AM
     PST MONDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 230516
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
915 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014...CORRECTED HEADLINES

.SYNOPSIS...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN LOWER ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW MUCH OF TONIGHT. A VIGOROUS FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...RENEWING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON. THE NEXT WARM FRONTAL WILL REACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. MORE WEATHER SYSTEMS MIGHT ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR IS PICKING UP BATCHES OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
WRN WA THIS EVENING UNDER A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THERE WAS ONE
LONE LIGHTNING STRIKE NEAR THE W ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT EARLIER AND
IF ANYTHING ELSE DOES OCCUR IT WOULD BE ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO
NEAR THE COAST. OTHERWISE...A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.

WARM ADVECTION ALREADY WORKING INTO WRN WA WILL BECOME MORE
NOTICEABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THE 02Z HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH (HRRR) IS INDICATING SOME
MILDER AIR INTRUDING AT 850 MB...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WARM
ADVECTION MOISTURE ALSO INCREASES. PASS TEMPERATURES AT SNOQUALMIE
AND STEVENS ARE ALREADY NEAR FREEZING WITH A COUPLE DEGREES WARMING
AT 850 MB EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT BELOW 3500 FEET AS STEADIER
PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW
MUCH SNOW WILL FALL AT THE LOWER PASSES COMPARED TO HIGHER SPOTS
LIKE STEVENS...PARADISE...AND MOUNT BAKER. MODELS TRENDS SUGGEST A
MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING AT SNOQUALMIE
BEFORE GOING BACK OVER TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. ABOVE 3500
FEET...PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THE DAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW STEADY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW PICKING UP AFTER
3-4 AM THEN TAPERING TO SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT WITH A
PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN SPOTS FAVORED IN STRONGER WLY FLOW
SUCH AS THE PASSES. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO BE FALLING TO 3000 FEET BY
THAT TIME AFFECTING EVEN SNOQUALMIE PASS. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND INDICATE THE HEAVIER
AMOUNTS OVER 1 FOOT MAINLY ABOVE 3500 FEET...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER 1 FOOT AT THE SKI RESORTS. SNOQUALMIE SHOULD SEE MORE
RAIN THAN SNOW BUT A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW POST FRONTAL SHOULD GIVE AT
LEAST A QUICK FEW INCHES. ALSO...WARNING AMOUNTS SEEM LIKELY AT
PARADISE AND ALPENTAL WHICH JUSTIFIES THE WARNING FOR THOSE ZONE.
WILL WORD THE WARNING STATEMENT ACCORDINGLY.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE RATHER QUICKLY BY SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AMPLIFIES AND MOVES OVER THE PAC NW THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING WARM
ADVECTION RAIN UNDER MODERATELY STRONG WLY FLOW. THIS STALLED FLOW
PATTERN COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS WRN WA THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH RELATIVELY HIGH SNOW LEVELS. SEE THE HYDRO DISCUSSION
BELOW. MERCER

.LONG TERM...NO UPDATE FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY IN THE NORTH CASCADES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE REST OF WRN WA SHOULD RECEIVE LIGHT RAIN
WHILE AREAS IN THE LEE OF THE OLYMPICS COULD BE FAIRLY DRY AND
BLUSTERY WITH WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN. THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK
LOOKS A LITTLE DIFFERENT IN EACH MODEL AND THE WEATHER FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY IS ESPECIALLY HARD TO FIGURE OUT. THE 06Z GFS HAD RATHER
COOL AIR OVER EASTERN WA WITH STRONG OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE
STATE AND A BREEZY DRY DAY FOR WRN WA ON THANKSGIVING. NOW THE
MODELS LOOK LIKE SOME SORT OF STATIONARY FRONT COULD BE HUNG UP OVER
THE REGION WHICH THEN MERGES WITH THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF NEW
SYSTEMS TRACKING ALONG IN THE PAC WESTERLIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE 12Z AND 18Z GFS RUNS SHOWED HEAVY RAIN IN THE NORTH
CASCADES NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN A 36HR PERIOD THRU MIDDAY WED.
THE 12Z ECMWF SPREAD THE RAIN OUT OVER THE ENTIRE CASCADE
RANGE...HAD MUCH LESS RAIN...AND SHIFTED THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BACK
NORTH INTO B.C. RATHER THAN LETTING IT PETER OUT OVER THE CASCADES
LIKE THE 12Z GFS. A HYDRO OUTLOOK PROBABLY COULD BE CONFINED TO JUST
WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES BASED ON THE GFS WHILE THE EURO PROBABLY
DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH PRECIP FOR RIVERS TO MAKE FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND
SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE. A COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL RAPIDLY SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY POST FRONTAL
ONSHORE FLOW SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHOWER ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE WEST SLOPES OF THE
OLYMPICS AND CASCADES THIS EVENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA 15Z-17Z. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY TIED TO THE TERRAIN AND A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE
MIDDAY SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
010-025 THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
ABOVE 5SM...WITH LOCAL 2-4 SM -RA BR WITH THE FRONT AND IN HEAVIER
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. ALBRECHT

KSEA...THE TERMINAL IS GENERALLY IN AN OLYMPIC RAIN SHADOW THIS
EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE ABOUT 12Z AS THE OFFSHORE FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA THEN TAPER TO OCNL -SHRA ABOUT 18Z SUN BEHIND
THE FRONT. SOUTH WIND 6-9 KT THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE TO 14-18 KT
WITH G28 KT 15-17Z THEN TURN SWLY 9-12KT 20Z SUN. WIND WSW 40 KT AT
5000 FT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WLY 45 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE GENERALLY EASED THIS EVENING. EXPECT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY S TO SW WINDS TO RAMP UP OVER ALL OF THE WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW NEARING 130W APPROACHES THE
WATERS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE COAST ABOUT 15Z SUN AND THROUGH
THE INLAND WATERS BY ABOUT 17Z SUN. EXPECT GALE FORCE WLY FLOW
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH EARLY SUN EVENING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS IN THE OTHER WATERS GRADUALLY RELAXING SUN AFTERNOON.

FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SELY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES NE ACROSS THE WATERS. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY JUST
NORTH OF THE WATERS TUE THROUGH WED WITH STRONG S-SW FLOW OVER MOST
OF THE WATERS. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM PST SUNDAY MORNING
     THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE CASCADES ABOVE 3000 FEET.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINING WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

















000
FXUS66 KSEW 230516
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
915 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014...CORRECTED HEADLINES

.SYNOPSIS...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN LOWER ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW MUCH OF TONIGHT. A VIGOROUS FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...RENEWING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON. THE NEXT WARM FRONTAL WILL REACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. MORE WEATHER SYSTEMS MIGHT ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR IS PICKING UP BATCHES OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
WRN WA THIS EVENING UNDER A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THERE WAS ONE
LONE LIGHTNING STRIKE NEAR THE W ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT EARLIER AND
IF ANYTHING ELSE DOES OCCUR IT WOULD BE ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO
NEAR THE COAST. OTHERWISE...A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.

WARM ADVECTION ALREADY WORKING INTO WRN WA WILL BECOME MORE
NOTICEABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THE 02Z HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH (HRRR) IS INDICATING SOME
MILDER AIR INTRUDING AT 850 MB...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WARM
ADVECTION MOISTURE ALSO INCREASES. PASS TEMPERATURES AT SNOQUALMIE
AND STEVENS ARE ALREADY NEAR FREEZING WITH A COUPLE DEGREES WARMING
AT 850 MB EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT BELOW 3500 FEET AS STEADIER
PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW
MUCH SNOW WILL FALL AT THE LOWER PASSES COMPARED TO HIGHER SPOTS
LIKE STEVENS...PARADISE...AND MOUNT BAKER. MODELS TRENDS SUGGEST A
MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING AT SNOQUALMIE
BEFORE GOING BACK OVER TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. ABOVE 3500
FEET...PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THE DAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW STEADY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW PICKING UP AFTER
3-4 AM THEN TAPERING TO SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT WITH A
PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN SPOTS FAVORED IN STRONGER WLY FLOW
SUCH AS THE PASSES. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO BE FALLING TO 3000 FEET BY
THAT TIME AFFECTING EVEN SNOQUALMIE PASS. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND INDICATE THE HEAVIER
AMOUNTS OVER 1 FOOT MAINLY ABOVE 3500 FEET...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER 1 FOOT AT THE SKI RESORTS. SNOQUALMIE SHOULD SEE MORE
RAIN THAN SNOW BUT A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW POST FRONTAL SHOULD GIVE AT
LEAST A QUICK FEW INCHES. ALSO...WARNING AMOUNTS SEEM LIKELY AT
PARADISE AND ALPENTAL WHICH JUSTIFIES THE WARNING FOR THOSE ZONE.
WILL WORD THE WARNING STATEMENT ACCORDINGLY.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE RATHER QUICKLY BY SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AMPLIFIES AND MOVES OVER THE PAC NW THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING WARM
ADVECTION RAIN UNDER MODERATELY STRONG WLY FLOW. THIS STALLED FLOW
PATTERN COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS WRN WA THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH RELATIVELY HIGH SNOW LEVELS. SEE THE HYDRO DISCUSSION
BELOW. MERCER

.LONG TERM...NO UPDATE FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY IN THE NORTH CASCADES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE REST OF WRN WA SHOULD RECEIVE LIGHT RAIN
WHILE AREAS IN THE LEE OF THE OLYMPICS COULD BE FAIRLY DRY AND
BLUSTERY WITH WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN. THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK
LOOKS A LITTLE DIFFERENT IN EACH MODEL AND THE WEATHER FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY IS ESPECIALLY HARD TO FIGURE OUT. THE 06Z GFS HAD RATHER
COOL AIR OVER EASTERN WA WITH STRONG OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE
STATE AND A BREEZY DRY DAY FOR WRN WA ON THANKSGIVING. NOW THE
MODELS LOOK LIKE SOME SORT OF STATIONARY FRONT COULD BE HUNG UP OVER
THE REGION WHICH THEN MERGES WITH THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF NEW
SYSTEMS TRACKING ALONG IN THE PAC WESTERLIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE 12Z AND 18Z GFS RUNS SHOWED HEAVY RAIN IN THE NORTH
CASCADES NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN A 36HR PERIOD THRU MIDDAY WED.
THE 12Z ECMWF SPREAD THE RAIN OUT OVER THE ENTIRE CASCADE
RANGE...HAD MUCH LESS RAIN...AND SHIFTED THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BACK
NORTH INTO B.C. RATHER THAN LETTING IT PETER OUT OVER THE CASCADES
LIKE THE 12Z GFS. A HYDRO OUTLOOK PROBABLY COULD BE CONFINED TO JUST
WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES BASED ON THE GFS WHILE THE EURO PROBABLY
DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH PRECIP FOR RIVERS TO MAKE FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND
SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE. A COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL RAPIDLY SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY POST FRONTAL
ONSHORE FLOW SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHOWER ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE WEST SLOPES OF THE
OLYMPICS AND CASCADES THIS EVENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA 15Z-17Z. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY TIED TO THE TERRAIN AND A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE
MIDDAY SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
010-025 THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
ABOVE 5SM...WITH LOCAL 2-4 SM -RA BR WITH THE FRONT AND IN HEAVIER
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. ALBRECHT

KSEA...THE TERMINAL IS GENERALLY IN AN OLYMPIC RAIN SHADOW THIS
EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE ABOUT 12Z AS THE OFFSHORE FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA THEN TAPER TO OCNL -SHRA ABOUT 18Z SUN BEHIND
THE FRONT. SOUTH WIND 6-9 KT THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE TO 14-18 KT
WITH G28 KT 15-17Z THEN TURN SWLY 9-12KT 20Z SUN. WIND WSW 40 KT AT
5000 FT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WLY 45 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE GENERALLY EASED THIS EVENING. EXPECT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY S TO SW WINDS TO RAMP UP OVER ALL OF THE WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW NEARING 130W APPROACHES THE
WATERS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE COAST ABOUT 15Z SUN AND THROUGH
THE INLAND WATERS BY ABOUT 17Z SUN. EXPECT GALE FORCE WLY FLOW
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH EARLY SUN EVENING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS IN THE OTHER WATERS GRADUALLY RELAXING SUN AFTERNOON.

FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SELY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES NE ACROSS THE WATERS. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY JUST
NORTH OF THE WATERS TUE THROUGH WED WITH STRONG S-SW FLOW OVER MOST
OF THE WATERS. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM PST SUNDAY MORNING
     THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE CASCADES ABOVE 3000 FEET.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINING WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

















000
FXUS66 KSEW 230516
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
915 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014...CORRECTED HEADLINES

.SYNOPSIS...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN LOWER ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW MUCH OF TONIGHT. A VIGOROUS FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...RENEWING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON. THE NEXT WARM FRONTAL WILL REACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. MORE WEATHER SYSTEMS MIGHT ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR IS PICKING UP BATCHES OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
WRN WA THIS EVENING UNDER A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THERE WAS ONE
LONE LIGHTNING STRIKE NEAR THE W ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT EARLIER AND
IF ANYTHING ELSE DOES OCCUR IT WOULD BE ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO
NEAR THE COAST. OTHERWISE...A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.

WARM ADVECTION ALREADY WORKING INTO WRN WA WILL BECOME MORE
NOTICEABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THE 02Z HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH (HRRR) IS INDICATING SOME
MILDER AIR INTRUDING AT 850 MB...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WARM
ADVECTION MOISTURE ALSO INCREASES. PASS TEMPERATURES AT SNOQUALMIE
AND STEVENS ARE ALREADY NEAR FREEZING WITH A COUPLE DEGREES WARMING
AT 850 MB EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT BELOW 3500 FEET AS STEADIER
PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW
MUCH SNOW WILL FALL AT THE LOWER PASSES COMPARED TO HIGHER SPOTS
LIKE STEVENS...PARADISE...AND MOUNT BAKER. MODELS TRENDS SUGGEST A
MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING AT SNOQUALMIE
BEFORE GOING BACK OVER TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. ABOVE 3500
FEET...PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THE DAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW STEADY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW PICKING UP AFTER
3-4 AM THEN TAPERING TO SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT WITH A
PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN SPOTS FAVORED IN STRONGER WLY FLOW
SUCH AS THE PASSES. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO BE FALLING TO 3000 FEET BY
THAT TIME AFFECTING EVEN SNOQUALMIE PASS. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND INDICATE THE HEAVIER
AMOUNTS OVER 1 FOOT MAINLY ABOVE 3500 FEET...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER 1 FOOT AT THE SKI RESORTS. SNOQUALMIE SHOULD SEE MORE
RAIN THAN SNOW BUT A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW POST FRONTAL SHOULD GIVE AT
LEAST A QUICK FEW INCHES. ALSO...WARNING AMOUNTS SEEM LIKELY AT
PARADISE AND ALPENTAL WHICH JUSTIFIES THE WARNING FOR THOSE ZONE.
WILL WORD THE WARNING STATEMENT ACCORDINGLY.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE RATHER QUICKLY BY SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AMPLIFIES AND MOVES OVER THE PAC NW THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING WARM
ADVECTION RAIN UNDER MODERATELY STRONG WLY FLOW. THIS STALLED FLOW
PATTERN COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS WRN WA THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH RELATIVELY HIGH SNOW LEVELS. SEE THE HYDRO DISCUSSION
BELOW. MERCER

.LONG TERM...NO UPDATE FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY IN THE NORTH CASCADES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE REST OF WRN WA SHOULD RECEIVE LIGHT RAIN
WHILE AREAS IN THE LEE OF THE OLYMPICS COULD BE FAIRLY DRY AND
BLUSTERY WITH WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN. THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK
LOOKS A LITTLE DIFFERENT IN EACH MODEL AND THE WEATHER FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY IS ESPECIALLY HARD TO FIGURE OUT. THE 06Z GFS HAD RATHER
COOL AIR OVER EASTERN WA WITH STRONG OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE
STATE AND A BREEZY DRY DAY FOR WRN WA ON THANKSGIVING. NOW THE
MODELS LOOK LIKE SOME SORT OF STATIONARY FRONT COULD BE HUNG UP OVER
THE REGION WHICH THEN MERGES WITH THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF NEW
SYSTEMS TRACKING ALONG IN THE PAC WESTERLIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE 12Z AND 18Z GFS RUNS SHOWED HEAVY RAIN IN THE NORTH
CASCADES NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN A 36HR PERIOD THRU MIDDAY WED.
THE 12Z ECMWF SPREAD THE RAIN OUT OVER THE ENTIRE CASCADE
RANGE...HAD MUCH LESS RAIN...AND SHIFTED THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BACK
NORTH INTO B.C. RATHER THAN LETTING IT PETER OUT OVER THE CASCADES
LIKE THE 12Z GFS. A HYDRO OUTLOOK PROBABLY COULD BE CONFINED TO JUST
WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES BASED ON THE GFS WHILE THE EURO PROBABLY
DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH PRECIP FOR RIVERS TO MAKE FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND
SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE. A COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL RAPIDLY SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY POST FRONTAL
ONSHORE FLOW SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHOWER ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE WEST SLOPES OF THE
OLYMPICS AND CASCADES THIS EVENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA 15Z-17Z. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY TIED TO THE TERRAIN AND A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE
MIDDAY SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
010-025 THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
ABOVE 5SM...WITH LOCAL 2-4 SM -RA BR WITH THE FRONT AND IN HEAVIER
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. ALBRECHT

KSEA...THE TERMINAL IS GENERALLY IN AN OLYMPIC RAIN SHADOW THIS
EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE ABOUT 12Z AS THE OFFSHORE FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA THEN TAPER TO OCNL -SHRA ABOUT 18Z SUN BEHIND
THE FRONT. SOUTH WIND 6-9 KT THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE TO 14-18 KT
WITH G28 KT 15-17Z THEN TURN SWLY 9-12KT 20Z SUN. WIND WSW 40 KT AT
5000 FT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WLY 45 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE GENERALLY EASED THIS EVENING. EXPECT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY S TO SW WINDS TO RAMP UP OVER ALL OF THE WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW NEARING 130W APPROACHES THE
WATERS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE COAST ABOUT 15Z SUN AND THROUGH
THE INLAND WATERS BY ABOUT 17Z SUN. EXPECT GALE FORCE WLY FLOW
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH EARLY SUN EVENING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS IN THE OTHER WATERS GRADUALLY RELAXING SUN AFTERNOON.

FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SELY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES NE ACROSS THE WATERS. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY JUST
NORTH OF THE WATERS TUE THROUGH WED WITH STRONG S-SW FLOW OVER MOST
OF THE WATERS. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM PST SUNDAY MORNING
     THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE CASCADES ABOVE 3000 FEET.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINING WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

















000
FXUS66 KSEW 230516
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
915 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014...CORRECTED HEADLINES

.SYNOPSIS...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN LOWER ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW MUCH OF TONIGHT. A VIGOROUS FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...RENEWING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON. THE NEXT WARM FRONTAL WILL REACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. MORE WEATHER SYSTEMS MIGHT ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR IS PICKING UP BATCHES OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
WRN WA THIS EVENING UNDER A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THERE WAS ONE
LONE LIGHTNING STRIKE NEAR THE W ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT EARLIER AND
IF ANYTHING ELSE DOES OCCUR IT WOULD BE ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO
NEAR THE COAST. OTHERWISE...A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.

WARM ADVECTION ALREADY WORKING INTO WRN WA WILL BECOME MORE
NOTICEABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THE 02Z HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH (HRRR) IS INDICATING SOME
MILDER AIR INTRUDING AT 850 MB...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WARM
ADVECTION MOISTURE ALSO INCREASES. PASS TEMPERATURES AT SNOQUALMIE
AND STEVENS ARE ALREADY NEAR FREEZING WITH A COUPLE DEGREES WARMING
AT 850 MB EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT BELOW 3500 FEET AS STEADIER
PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW
MUCH SNOW WILL FALL AT THE LOWER PASSES COMPARED TO HIGHER SPOTS
LIKE STEVENS...PARADISE...AND MOUNT BAKER. MODELS TRENDS SUGGEST A
MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING AT SNOQUALMIE
BEFORE GOING BACK OVER TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. ABOVE 3500
FEET...PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THE DAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW STEADY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW PICKING UP AFTER
3-4 AM THEN TAPERING TO SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT WITH A
PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN SPOTS FAVORED IN STRONGER WLY FLOW
SUCH AS THE PASSES. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO BE FALLING TO 3000 FEET BY
THAT TIME AFFECTING EVEN SNOQUALMIE PASS. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND INDICATE THE HEAVIER
AMOUNTS OVER 1 FOOT MAINLY ABOVE 3500 FEET...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER 1 FOOT AT THE SKI RESORTS. SNOQUALMIE SHOULD SEE MORE
RAIN THAN SNOW BUT A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW POST FRONTAL SHOULD GIVE AT
LEAST A QUICK FEW INCHES. ALSO...WARNING AMOUNTS SEEM LIKELY AT
PARADISE AND ALPENTAL WHICH JUSTIFIES THE WARNING FOR THOSE ZONE.
WILL WORD THE WARNING STATEMENT ACCORDINGLY.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE RATHER QUICKLY BY SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AMPLIFIES AND MOVES OVER THE PAC NW THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING WARM
ADVECTION RAIN UNDER MODERATELY STRONG WLY FLOW. THIS STALLED FLOW
PATTERN COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS WRN WA THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH RELATIVELY HIGH SNOW LEVELS. SEE THE HYDRO DISCUSSION
BELOW. MERCER

.LONG TERM...NO UPDATE FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY IN THE NORTH CASCADES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE REST OF WRN WA SHOULD RECEIVE LIGHT RAIN
WHILE AREAS IN THE LEE OF THE OLYMPICS COULD BE FAIRLY DRY AND
BLUSTERY WITH WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN. THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK
LOOKS A LITTLE DIFFERENT IN EACH MODEL AND THE WEATHER FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY IS ESPECIALLY HARD TO FIGURE OUT. THE 06Z GFS HAD RATHER
COOL AIR OVER EASTERN WA WITH STRONG OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE
STATE AND A BREEZY DRY DAY FOR WRN WA ON THANKSGIVING. NOW THE
MODELS LOOK LIKE SOME SORT OF STATIONARY FRONT COULD BE HUNG UP OVER
THE REGION WHICH THEN MERGES WITH THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF NEW
SYSTEMS TRACKING ALONG IN THE PAC WESTERLIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE 12Z AND 18Z GFS RUNS SHOWED HEAVY RAIN IN THE NORTH
CASCADES NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN A 36HR PERIOD THRU MIDDAY WED.
THE 12Z ECMWF SPREAD THE RAIN OUT OVER THE ENTIRE CASCADE
RANGE...HAD MUCH LESS RAIN...AND SHIFTED THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BACK
NORTH INTO B.C. RATHER THAN LETTING IT PETER OUT OVER THE CASCADES
LIKE THE 12Z GFS. A HYDRO OUTLOOK PROBABLY COULD BE CONFINED TO JUST
WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES BASED ON THE GFS WHILE THE EURO PROBABLY
DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH PRECIP FOR RIVERS TO MAKE FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND
SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE. A COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL RAPIDLY SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY POST FRONTAL
ONSHORE FLOW SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHOWER ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE WEST SLOPES OF THE
OLYMPICS AND CASCADES THIS EVENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA 15Z-17Z. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY TIED TO THE TERRAIN AND A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE
MIDDAY SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
010-025 THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
ABOVE 5SM...WITH LOCAL 2-4 SM -RA BR WITH THE FRONT AND IN HEAVIER
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. ALBRECHT

KSEA...THE TERMINAL IS GENERALLY IN AN OLYMPIC RAIN SHADOW THIS
EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE ABOUT 12Z AS THE OFFSHORE FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA THEN TAPER TO OCNL -SHRA ABOUT 18Z SUN BEHIND
THE FRONT. SOUTH WIND 6-9 KT THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE TO 14-18 KT
WITH G28 KT 15-17Z THEN TURN SWLY 9-12KT 20Z SUN. WIND WSW 40 KT AT
5000 FT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WLY 45 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE GENERALLY EASED THIS EVENING. EXPECT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY S TO SW WINDS TO RAMP UP OVER ALL OF THE WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW NEARING 130W APPROACHES THE
WATERS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE COAST ABOUT 15Z SUN AND THROUGH
THE INLAND WATERS BY ABOUT 17Z SUN. EXPECT GALE FORCE WLY FLOW
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH EARLY SUN EVENING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS IN THE OTHER WATERS GRADUALLY RELAXING SUN AFTERNOON.

FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SELY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES NE ACROSS THE WATERS. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY JUST
NORTH OF THE WATERS TUE THROUGH WED WITH STRONG S-SW FLOW OVER MOST
OF THE WATERS. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM PST SUNDAY MORNING
     THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE CASCADES ABOVE 3000 FEET.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINING WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

















000
FXUS66 KSEW 230447
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN LOWER ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW MUCH OF TONIGHT. A VIGOROUS FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...RENEWING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON. THE NEXT WARM FRONTAL WILL REACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. MORE WEATHER SYSTEMS MIGHT ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR IS PICKING UP BATCHES OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
WRN WA THIS EVENING UNDER A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THERE WAS ONE
LONE LIGHTNING STRIKE NEAR THE W ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT EARLIER AND
IF ANYTHING ELSE DOES OCCUR IT WOULD BE ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO
NEAR THE COAST. OTHERWISE...A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.

WARM ADVECTION ALREADY WORKING INTO WRN WA WILL BECOME MORE
NOTICEABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THE 02Z HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH (HRRR) IS INDICATING SOME
MILDER AIR INTRUDING AT 850 MB...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WARM
ADVECTION MOISTURE ALSO INCREASES. PASS TEMPERATURES AT SNOQUALMIE
AND STEVENS ARE ALREADY NEAR FREEZING WITH A COUPLE DEGREES WARMING
AT 850 MB EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT BELOW 3500 FEET AS STEADIER
PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW
MUCH SNOW WILL FALL AT THE LOWER PASSES COMPARED TO HIGHER SPOTS
LIKE STEVENS...PARADISE...AND MOUNT BAKER. MODELS TRENDS SUGGEST A
MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING AT SNOQUALMIE
BEFORE GOING BACK OVER TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. ABOVE 3500
FEET...PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THE DAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW STEADY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW PICKING UP AFTER
3-4 AM THEN TAPERING TO SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT WITH A
PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN SPOTS FAVORED IN STRONGER WLY FLOW
SUCH AS THE PASSES. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO BE FALLING TO 3000 FEET BY
THAT TIME AFFECTING EVEN SNOQUALMIE PASS. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND INDICATE THE HEAVIER
AMOUNTS OVER 1 FOOT MAINLY ABOVE 3500 FEET...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER 1 FOOT AT THE SKI RESORTS. SNOQUALMIE SHOULD SEE MORE
RAIN THAN SNOW BUT A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW POST FRONTAL SHOULD GIVE AT
LEAST A QUICK FEW INCHES. ALSO...WARNING AMOUNTS SEEM LIKELY AT
PARADISE AND ALPENTAL WHICH JUSTIFIES THE WARNING FOR THOSE ZONE.
WILL WORD THE WARNING STATEMENT ACCORDINGLY.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE RATHER QUICKLY BY SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AMPLIFIES AND MOVES OVER THE PAC NW THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING WARM
ADVECTION RAIN UNDER MODERATELY STRONG WLY FLOW. THIS STALLED FLOW
PATTERN COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS WRN WA THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH RELATIVELY HIGH SNOW LEVELS. SEE THE HYDRO DISCUSSION
BELOW. MERCER

.LONG TERM...NO UPDATE FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY IN THE NORTH CASCADES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE REST OF WRN WA SHOULD RECEIVE LIGHT RAIN
WHILE AREAS IN THE LEE OF THE OLYMPICS COULD BE FAIRLY DRY AND
BLUSTERY WITH WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN. THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK
LOOKS A LITTLE DIFFERENT IN EACH MODEL AND THE WEATHER FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY IS ESPECIALLY HARD TO FIGURE OUT. THE 06Z GFS HAD RATHER
COOL AIR OVER EASTERN WA WITH STRONG OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE
STATE AND A BREEZY DRY DAY FOR WRN WA ON THANKSGIVING. NOW THE
MODELS LOOK LIKE SOME SORT OF STATIONARY FRONT COULD BE HUNG UP OVER
THE REGION WHICH THEN MERGES WITH THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF NEW
SYSTEMS TRACKING ALONG IN THE PAC WESTERLIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE 12Z AND 18Z GFS RUNS SHOWED HEAVY RAIN IN THE NORTH
CASCADES NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN A 36HR PERIOD THRU MIDDAY WED.
THE 12Z ECMWF SPREAD THE RAIN OUT OVER THE ENTIRE CASCADE
RANGE...HAD MUCH LESS RAIN...AND SHIFTED THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BACK
NORTH INTO B.C. RATHER THAN LETTING IT PETER OUT OVER THE CASCADES
LIKE THE 12Z GFS. A HYDRO OUTLOOK PROBABLY COULD BE CONFINED TO JUST
WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES BASED ON THE GFS WHILE THE EURO PROBABLY
DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH PRECIP FOR RIVERS TO MAKE FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND
SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE. A COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL RAPIDLY SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY POST FRONTAL
ONSHORE FLOW SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHOWER ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE WEST SLOPES OF THE
OLYMPICS AND CASCADES THIS EVENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA 15Z-17Z. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY TIED TO THE TERRAIN AND A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE
MIDDAY SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
010-025 THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
ABOVE 5SM...WITH LOCAL 2-4 SM -RA BR WITH THE FRONT AND IN HEAVIER
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. ALBRECHT

KSEA...THE TERMINAL IS GENERALLY IN AN OLYMPIC RAIN SHADOW THIS
EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE ABOUT 12Z AS THE OFFSHORE FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA THEN TAPER TO OCNL -SHRA ABOUT 18Z SUN BEHIND
THE FRONT. SOUTH WIND 6-9 KT THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE TO 14-18 KT
WITH G28 KT 15-17Z THEN TURN SWLY 9-12KT 20Z SUN. WIND WSW 40 KT AT
5000 FT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WLY 45 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE GENERALLY EASED THIS EVENING. EXPECT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY S TO SW WINDS TO RAMP UP OVER ALL OF THE WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW NEARING 130W APPROACHES THE
WATERS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE COAST ABOUT 15Z SUN AND THROUGH
THE INLAND WATERS BY ABOUT 17Z SUN. EXPECT GALE FORCE WLY FLOW
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH EARLY SUN EVENING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS IN THE OTHER WATERS GRADUALLY RELAXING SUN AFTERNOON.

FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SELY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES NE ACROSS THE WATERS. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY JUST
NORTH OF THE WATERS TUE THROUGH WED WITH STRONG S-SW FLOW OVER MOST
OF THE WATERS. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINING WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR CONDITIONS.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM PST SUNDAY MORNING
     THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE CASCADES ABOVE 3000 FEET.


&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 230447
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN LOWER ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW MUCH OF TONIGHT. A VIGOROUS FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...RENEWING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON. THE NEXT WARM FRONTAL WILL REACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. MORE WEATHER SYSTEMS MIGHT ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR IS PICKING UP BATCHES OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
WRN WA THIS EVENING UNDER A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THERE WAS ONE
LONE LIGHTNING STRIKE NEAR THE W ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT EARLIER AND
IF ANYTHING ELSE DOES OCCUR IT WOULD BE ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO
NEAR THE COAST. OTHERWISE...A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.

WARM ADVECTION ALREADY WORKING INTO WRN WA WILL BECOME MORE
NOTICEABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THE 02Z HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH (HRRR) IS INDICATING SOME
MILDER AIR INTRUDING AT 850 MB...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WARM
ADVECTION MOISTURE ALSO INCREASES. PASS TEMPERATURES AT SNOQUALMIE
AND STEVENS ARE ALREADY NEAR FREEZING WITH A COUPLE DEGREES WARMING
AT 850 MB EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT BELOW 3500 FEET AS STEADIER
PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW
MUCH SNOW WILL FALL AT THE LOWER PASSES COMPARED TO HIGHER SPOTS
LIKE STEVENS...PARADISE...AND MOUNT BAKER. MODELS TRENDS SUGGEST A
MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING AT SNOQUALMIE
BEFORE GOING BACK OVER TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. ABOVE 3500
FEET...PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THE DAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW STEADY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW PICKING UP AFTER
3-4 AM THEN TAPERING TO SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT WITH A
PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN SPOTS FAVORED IN STRONGER WLY FLOW
SUCH AS THE PASSES. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO BE FALLING TO 3000 FEET BY
THAT TIME AFFECTING EVEN SNOQUALMIE PASS. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND INDICATE THE HEAVIER
AMOUNTS OVER 1 FOOT MAINLY ABOVE 3500 FEET...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER 1 FOOT AT THE SKI RESORTS. SNOQUALMIE SHOULD SEE MORE
RAIN THAN SNOW BUT A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW POST FRONTAL SHOULD GIVE AT
LEAST A QUICK FEW INCHES. ALSO...WARNING AMOUNTS SEEM LIKELY AT
PARADISE AND ALPENTAL WHICH JUSTIFIES THE WARNING FOR THOSE ZONE.
WILL WORD THE WARNING STATEMENT ACCORDINGLY.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE RATHER QUICKLY BY SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AMPLIFIES AND MOVES OVER THE PAC NW THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING WARM
ADVECTION RAIN UNDER MODERATELY STRONG WLY FLOW. THIS STALLED FLOW
PATTERN COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS WRN WA THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH RELATIVELY HIGH SNOW LEVELS. SEE THE HYDRO DISCUSSION
BELOW. MERCER

.LONG TERM...NO UPDATE FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY IN THE NORTH CASCADES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE REST OF WRN WA SHOULD RECEIVE LIGHT RAIN
WHILE AREAS IN THE LEE OF THE OLYMPICS COULD BE FAIRLY DRY AND
BLUSTERY WITH WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN. THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK
LOOKS A LITTLE DIFFERENT IN EACH MODEL AND THE WEATHER FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY IS ESPECIALLY HARD TO FIGURE OUT. THE 06Z GFS HAD RATHER
COOL AIR OVER EASTERN WA WITH STRONG OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE
STATE AND A BREEZY DRY DAY FOR WRN WA ON THANKSGIVING. NOW THE
MODELS LOOK LIKE SOME SORT OF STATIONARY FRONT COULD BE HUNG UP OVER
THE REGION WHICH THEN MERGES WITH THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF NEW
SYSTEMS TRACKING ALONG IN THE PAC WESTERLIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE 12Z AND 18Z GFS RUNS SHOWED HEAVY RAIN IN THE NORTH
CASCADES NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN A 36HR PERIOD THRU MIDDAY WED.
THE 12Z ECMWF SPREAD THE RAIN OUT OVER THE ENTIRE CASCADE
RANGE...HAD MUCH LESS RAIN...AND SHIFTED THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BACK
NORTH INTO B.C. RATHER THAN LETTING IT PETER OUT OVER THE CASCADES
LIKE THE 12Z GFS. A HYDRO OUTLOOK PROBABLY COULD BE CONFINED TO JUST
WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES BASED ON THE GFS WHILE THE EURO PROBABLY
DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH PRECIP FOR RIVERS TO MAKE FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND
SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE. A COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL RAPIDLY SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY POST FRONTAL
ONSHORE FLOW SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHOWER ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE WEST SLOPES OF THE
OLYMPICS AND CASCADES THIS EVENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA 15Z-17Z. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY TIED TO THE TERRAIN AND A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE
MIDDAY SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
010-025 THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
ABOVE 5SM...WITH LOCAL 2-4 SM -RA BR WITH THE FRONT AND IN HEAVIER
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. ALBRECHT

KSEA...THE TERMINAL IS GENERALLY IN AN OLYMPIC RAIN SHADOW THIS
EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE ABOUT 12Z AS THE OFFSHORE FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA THEN TAPER TO OCNL -SHRA ABOUT 18Z SUN BEHIND
THE FRONT. SOUTH WIND 6-9 KT THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE TO 14-18 KT
WITH G28 KT 15-17Z THEN TURN SWLY 9-12KT 20Z SUN. WIND WSW 40 KT AT
5000 FT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WLY 45 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE GENERALLY EASED THIS EVENING. EXPECT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY S TO SW WINDS TO RAMP UP OVER ALL OF THE WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW NEARING 130W APPROACHES THE
WATERS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE COAST ABOUT 15Z SUN AND THROUGH
THE INLAND WATERS BY ABOUT 17Z SUN. EXPECT GALE FORCE WLY FLOW
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH EARLY SUN EVENING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS IN THE OTHER WATERS GRADUALLY RELAXING SUN AFTERNOON.

FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SELY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES NE ACROSS THE WATERS. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY JUST
NORTH OF THE WATERS TUE THROUGH WED WITH STRONG S-SW FLOW OVER MOST
OF THE WATERS. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINING WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR CONDITIONS.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM PST SUNDAY MORNING
     THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE CASCADES ABOVE 3000 FEET.


&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML














000
FXUS66 KOTX 230236
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
636 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain and snow showers will pass through the southeast
tonight. Another round of rain and snow will arrive Sunday and
could make for slick conditions on area passes. The mountains
will receive another round of heavy snow Monday night into
Tuesday. A break in the active weather pattern will be possible
late in the week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued a short term Winter Weather Advisory for the Camas Prairie.
Unstable northwest flow into this area is producing moderate to
heavy snowfall above 3,000 feet in this area. Models show the
heaviest accumulations will continue through about 1000 PM this
evening. Bursts of heavy snow will result in quick accumulations
on road surfaces; it will also result in reduce visibility that
will result in hazardous travel across this area, which includes
highway 95 south of Lewiston on the Camas Prairie. /SVh


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A weather disturbance is moving through the region late
this afternoon and has initiated convective showers across the
southeast portion of the area...effecting mainly KLWS/KPUW through
04Z. Localized heavy showers may lower cigs/vsby for short
periods. In addition upsloping winds and a saturated boundary
layer will likely result in MVFR/IFR stratus overnight for
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW through 15z. Another wet system will bring
widespread precipitation Sunday with a strong possibility for
several hours of snow at KGEG/KCOE/KSZT/KPUW...snow should turn
over to rain between 19-21z. The precipitation will bring
cig/vsby down to IFR and even LIFR at times through 00z Sunday.
/Tobin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        30  38  28  37  32  43 /  10  90  30  10  50  60
Coeur d`Alene  30  38  29  37  33  41 /  10 100  50  20  60  80
Pullman        33  40  32  40  35  46 /  20 100  50  10  60  70
Lewiston       37  45  33  45  38  50 /  60  60  50  10  60  60
Colville       24  37  23  37  30  39 /  10  80  30  20  60  60
Sandpoint      30  36  29  37  31  39 /  20 100  50  30  70  80
Kellogg        32  35  31  35  32  38 /  50 100  70  20  70  90
Moses Lake     28  43  28  41  33  48 /   0  20  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      33  42  32  41  35  46 /  10  40  10  10  20  30
Omak           27  37  26  37  30  41 /  10  50  10  20  30  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Lewis
     and Southern Nez Perce Counties.

WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 230236
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
636 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain and snow showers will pass through the southeast
tonight. Another round of rain and snow will arrive Sunday and
could make for slick conditions on area passes. The mountains
will receive another round of heavy snow Monday night into
Tuesday. A break in the active weather pattern will be possible
late in the week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued a short term Winter Weather Advisory for the Camas Prairie.
Unstable northwest flow into this area is producing moderate to
heavy snowfall above 3,000 feet in this area. Models show the
heaviest accumulations will continue through about 1000 PM this
evening. Bursts of heavy snow will result in quick accumulations
on road surfaces; it will also result in reduce visibility that
will result in hazardous travel across this area, which includes
highway 95 south of Lewiston on the Camas Prairie. /SVh


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A weather disturbance is moving through the region late
this afternoon and has initiated convective showers across the
southeast portion of the area...effecting mainly KLWS/KPUW through
04Z. Localized heavy showers may lower cigs/vsby for short
periods. In addition upsloping winds and a saturated boundary
layer will likely result in MVFR/IFR stratus overnight for
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW through 15z. Another wet system will bring
widespread precipitation Sunday with a strong possibility for
several hours of snow at KGEG/KCOE/KSZT/KPUW...snow should turn
over to rain between 19-21z. The precipitation will bring
cig/vsby down to IFR and even LIFR at times through 00z Sunday.
/Tobin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        30  38  28  37  32  43 /  10  90  30  10  50  60
Coeur d`Alene  30  38  29  37  33  41 /  10 100  50  20  60  80
Pullman        33  40  32  40  35  46 /  20 100  50  10  60  70
Lewiston       37  45  33  45  38  50 /  60  60  50  10  60  60
Colville       24  37  23  37  30  39 /  10  80  30  20  60  60
Sandpoint      30  36  29  37  31  39 /  20 100  50  30  70  80
Kellogg        32  35  31  35  32  38 /  50 100  70  20  70  90
Moses Lake     28  43  28  41  33  48 /   0  20  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      33  42  32  41  35  46 /  10  40  10  10  20  30
Omak           27  37  26  37  30  41 /  10  50  10  20  30  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Lewis
     and Southern Nez Perce Counties.

WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 230027
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
425 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain and snow showers will pass through the southeast
tonight. Another round of rain and snow will arrive Sunday and
could make for slick conditions on area passes. The mountains
will receive another round of heavy snow Monday night into
Tuesday. A break in the active weather pattern will be possible
late in the week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sunday: The main focus for tonight will be an area of
showers associated with a vort max that is currently tracking
along the WA/OR border. As of 2PM, the circulation has crossed the
Cascades and clouds/radar echoes continue to blossom across the
lower Columbia Basin and north Oregon. This will not be an
extremely wet system but localized showers could be intense at
times given the cold and unstable air mass in place. Model trends
have been a bit further south placing the highest precipitation
chances south of a line from La Crosse to Avery...and current HRRR
runs suggest precipitation may struggle to expand north of
Lewiston. Gusty southerly flow ahead of this wave has resulted in
low 50s in the L-C Valley and observations from the Blues/Camas
Prairie suggest the best chance for any snow will be above 4500
feet. A secondary and even smaller wave will drop south from BC
bringing isolated snow showers across the northeast zones (NE
WA/Nrn ID) overnight. Again, these will be rather light.

So the question then becomes how much clearing will we see? This
becomes important because a wetter and more widespread
precipitation event arrives Sunday. This wave is currently visible
on afternoon Water Vapor near 140W off the WA Coast. The lift and
moisture will be much better with this wave and models are in
decent agreement of areas of east of a line from Colville to
Ritzville squeezing out between a tenth to three tenths of liquid.
Snow levels are the wildcard and ultimately comes down to how much
clearing occurs overnight. Our forecast is probably on the lower
end of the spectrum for snow levels and may need to be tweaked up
but would like to see how cold it gets tonight before doing so.
The best chance for lowland snow accumulations of 1-2 inches
will be in the NE valleys with lower amounts into the Upper
Columbia Basin and Spokane-CDA area. Elevations above 2500 feet
will carry the highest probabilities.  The eastern mountains will
receive another 2-5 inches with locally higher amounts in the
Central Panhandle Mtns and this was covered in the latest winter
weather advisory. Snow will also continue along the Cascade Crest
but taper off quickly in the lee of the Cascades where shadowing
normally occurs.

For Sunday, clouds and light precipitation will materialize
throughout the morning and intensify over the ID Panhandle and far
eastern reaches of WA (and Cascade Crest) Sunday afternoon. This
is another reason for lacking valley accumulations but mountain
passes are likely to experience snow covered roads and hazardous
travel. /sb

Sunday night through Tuesday night...Through this period of the
forecast high pressure will build in the eastern Pacific out
between 130-132W. This will keep northwest flow over the region
through Monday night then becoming west-northwest Monday night and
Tuesday. This flow pattern will allow a series of weak
disturbances to track over the ridge and drop through the forecast
area through the entire period.

Northwest flow Sunday night and Monday will keep orographic
showers across the eastern mountains...and some slop over showers
across the Cascade crest. Snow levels for the Panhandle range
from 3K feet across the south to just under 2k for the north
Panhandle. Some of the higher mountains south of I-90 could pick
up 3-4 inches of snow by Monday morning with much less for the
north Panhandle...with 1-3 inches near the Cascade crest.
Otherwise expect a dry forecast with temperatures near persistence
and near seasonal averages.

Monday night through Tuesday night the weather will move through
the region. Model guidance shows this system to have decent
moisture with PWATs going up to .85 or so. Isentropic up-glide
will increase just after 06z and quickly push across the northern
zones and finally into the eastern up-slope areas by morning.
Nothing in the way of a cold front passage will be available to
increase forcing so lift just by isentropic up-glide and
orographics. Still the models are spitting out some pretty hefty
precipitation totals. The lower east slopes and the deep basin
should get shadowed out by the Cascades but will still be able to
squeeze out a little rain.

Snow levels start out around 4K feet across the south and 2K
feet across the north but with south-southwest lower level winds
and moderate warm air advection snow levels will lift above 5k
feet across the south and above 3-3.5k feet across the north by
early Tuesday afternoon. This will result in most of the valleys
below 3k feet getting rain with snow in the mountains. 24-36 hour
snow amounts could be as high as 8-12 inches near the Cascade
crest...5-9 inches for the northeast mountains and Idaho Panhandle
mountains by Wednesday morning. A lot of these amounts will be
very dependent on just how fast the temperatures warm up during
the day Tuesday.

Tuesday will seem quite balmy with temperatures rising into the
upper 30s to lower 50s. Southwest will be on the increase again
Tuesday and Tuesday night with sustain 10-20 mph and gust 25-30
mph. /Tobin

Wednesday through Saturday...The busiest travel day of the year
will be unseasonably warm across the region as gusty southwest
winds keep the atmosphere well mixed. Temperatures will be in the
40s with low 50s possible in the southern valleys. This will keep
any precipitation in liquid form except for the high peaks. Snow
levels will start to drop as winds shift to the west during the
evening hours then become northerly overnight. Medium range models
are in general agreement on shortwave energy riding along a rather
flat ridge with the main threat of precipitation across the
northern zones on Wednesday. By Thanksgiving Day the track of the
band of moisture sinks as far south as the Palouse per the 12Z GFS
while the ECMWF keeps it more to the north. The 12Z GFS also
brings colder temps farther south with the possibility of some
light snow for the I-90 corridor. As I type this, the 18Z run of
the GFS is coming in warmer so there is quite a bit of uncertainty
as to p-type. The general trend will be cooling temperatures in
northerly flow for Friday and Friday night, then a gradual warming
as winds again shift to the southwest ahead of the next warm front
that could affect the Inland Northwest over the weekend. Warm air
moving in over the colder air entrenched at the surface could mean
the possibility of some mixed precipitation. Models disagree on
the southerly extend of the cold air at the surface and also on
the timing of this feature so for now we will keep sleet/FZRA out
of the weather grids. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A weather disturbance is moving through the region late
this afternoon and has initiated convective showers across the
southeast portion of the area...effecting mainly KLWS/KPUW through
04Z. Localized heavy showers may lower cigs/vsby for short
periods. In addition upsloping winds and a saturated boundary
layer will likely result in MVFR/IFR stratus overnight for
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW through 15z. Another wet system will bring
widespread precipitation Sunday with a strong possibility for
several hours of snow at KGEG/KCOE/KSZT/KPUW...snow should turn
over to rain between 19-21z. The precipitation will bring
cig/vsby down to IFR and even LIFR at times through 00z Sunday.
/Tobin



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        30  38  28  37  32  43 /  10  90  30  10  50  60
Coeur d`Alene  30  38  29  37  33  41 /  10 100  50  20  60  80
Pullman        33  40  32  40  35  46 /  20 100  50  10  60  70
Lewiston       37  45  33  45  38  50 /  60  60  50  10  60  60
Colville       24  37  23  37  30  39 /  10  80  30  20  60  60
Sandpoint      30  36  29  37  31  39 /  20 100  50  30  70  80
Kellogg        32  35  31  35  32  38 /  50 100  70  20  70  90
Moses Lake     28  43  28  41  33  48 /  10  20  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      33  42  32  41  35  46 /  10  40  10  10  20  30
Omak           27  37  26  37  30  41 /  10  50  10  20  30  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 230027
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
425 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain and snow showers will pass through the southeast
tonight. Another round of rain and snow will arrive Sunday and
could make for slick conditions on area passes. The mountains
will receive another round of heavy snow Monday night into
Tuesday. A break in the active weather pattern will be possible
late in the week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sunday: The main focus for tonight will be an area of
showers associated with a vort max that is currently tracking
along the WA/OR border. As of 2PM, the circulation has crossed the
Cascades and clouds/radar echoes continue to blossom across the
lower Columbia Basin and north Oregon. This will not be an
extremely wet system but localized showers could be intense at
times given the cold and unstable air mass in place. Model trends
have been a bit further south placing the highest precipitation
chances south of a line from La Crosse to Avery...and current HRRR
runs suggest precipitation may struggle to expand north of
Lewiston. Gusty southerly flow ahead of this wave has resulted in
low 50s in the L-C Valley and observations from the Blues/Camas
Prairie suggest the best chance for any snow will be above 4500
feet. A secondary and even smaller wave will drop south from BC
bringing isolated snow showers across the northeast zones (NE
WA/Nrn ID) overnight. Again, these will be rather light.

So the question then becomes how much clearing will we see? This
becomes important because a wetter and more widespread
precipitation event arrives Sunday. This wave is currently visible
on afternoon Water Vapor near 140W off the WA Coast. The lift and
moisture will be much better with this wave and models are in
decent agreement of areas of east of a line from Colville to
Ritzville squeezing out between a tenth to three tenths of liquid.
Snow levels are the wildcard and ultimately comes down to how much
clearing occurs overnight. Our forecast is probably on the lower
end of the spectrum for snow levels and may need to be tweaked up
but would like to see how cold it gets tonight before doing so.
The best chance for lowland snow accumulations of 1-2 inches
will be in the NE valleys with lower amounts into the Upper
Columbia Basin and Spokane-CDA area. Elevations above 2500 feet
will carry the highest probabilities.  The eastern mountains will
receive another 2-5 inches with locally higher amounts in the
Central Panhandle Mtns and this was covered in the latest winter
weather advisory. Snow will also continue along the Cascade Crest
but taper off quickly in the lee of the Cascades where shadowing
normally occurs.

For Sunday, clouds and light precipitation will materialize
throughout the morning and intensify over the ID Panhandle and far
eastern reaches of WA (and Cascade Crest) Sunday afternoon. This
is another reason for lacking valley accumulations but mountain
passes are likely to experience snow covered roads and hazardous
travel. /sb

Sunday night through Tuesday night...Through this period of the
forecast high pressure will build in the eastern Pacific out
between 130-132W. This will keep northwest flow over the region
through Monday night then becoming west-northwest Monday night and
Tuesday. This flow pattern will allow a series of weak
disturbances to track over the ridge and drop through the forecast
area through the entire period.

Northwest flow Sunday night and Monday will keep orographic
showers across the eastern mountains...and some slop over showers
across the Cascade crest. Snow levels for the Panhandle range
from 3K feet across the south to just under 2k for the north
Panhandle. Some of the higher mountains south of I-90 could pick
up 3-4 inches of snow by Monday morning with much less for the
north Panhandle...with 1-3 inches near the Cascade crest.
Otherwise expect a dry forecast with temperatures near persistence
and near seasonal averages.

Monday night through Tuesday night the weather will move through
the region. Model guidance shows this system to have decent
moisture with PWATs going up to .85 or so. Isentropic up-glide
will increase just after 06z and quickly push across the northern
zones and finally into the eastern up-slope areas by morning.
Nothing in the way of a cold front passage will be available to
increase forcing so lift just by isentropic up-glide and
orographics. Still the models are spitting out some pretty hefty
precipitation totals. The lower east slopes and the deep basin
should get shadowed out by the Cascades but will still be able to
squeeze out a little rain.

Snow levels start out around 4K feet across the south and 2K
feet across the north but with south-southwest lower level winds
and moderate warm air advection snow levels will lift above 5k
feet across the south and above 3-3.5k feet across the north by
early Tuesday afternoon. This will result in most of the valleys
below 3k feet getting rain with snow in the mountains. 24-36 hour
snow amounts could be as high as 8-12 inches near the Cascade
crest...5-9 inches for the northeast mountains and Idaho Panhandle
mountains by Wednesday morning. A lot of these amounts will be
very dependent on just how fast the temperatures warm up during
the day Tuesday.

Tuesday will seem quite balmy with temperatures rising into the
upper 30s to lower 50s. Southwest will be on the increase again
Tuesday and Tuesday night with sustain 10-20 mph and gust 25-30
mph. /Tobin

Wednesday through Saturday...The busiest travel day of the year
will be unseasonably warm across the region as gusty southwest
winds keep the atmosphere well mixed. Temperatures will be in the
40s with low 50s possible in the southern valleys. This will keep
any precipitation in liquid form except for the high peaks. Snow
levels will start to drop as winds shift to the west during the
evening hours then become northerly overnight. Medium range models
are in general agreement on shortwave energy riding along a rather
flat ridge with the main threat of precipitation across the
northern zones on Wednesday. By Thanksgiving Day the track of the
band of moisture sinks as far south as the Palouse per the 12Z GFS
while the ECMWF keeps it more to the north. The 12Z GFS also
brings colder temps farther south with the possibility of some
light snow for the I-90 corridor. As I type this, the 18Z run of
the GFS is coming in warmer so there is quite a bit of uncertainty
as to p-type. The general trend will be cooling temperatures in
northerly flow for Friday and Friday night, then a gradual warming
as winds again shift to the southwest ahead of the next warm front
that could affect the Inland Northwest over the weekend. Warm air
moving in over the colder air entrenched at the surface could mean
the possibility of some mixed precipitation. Models disagree on
the southerly extend of the cold air at the surface and also on
the timing of this feature so for now we will keep sleet/FZRA out
of the weather grids. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A weather disturbance is moving through the region late
this afternoon and has initiated convective showers across the
southeast portion of the area...effecting mainly KLWS/KPUW through
04Z. Localized heavy showers may lower cigs/vsby for short
periods. In addition upsloping winds and a saturated boundary
layer will likely result in MVFR/IFR stratus overnight for
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW through 15z. Another wet system will bring
widespread precipitation Sunday with a strong possibility for
several hours of snow at KGEG/KCOE/KSZT/KPUW...snow should turn
over to rain between 19-21z. The precipitation will bring
cig/vsby down to IFR and even LIFR at times through 00z Sunday.
/Tobin



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        30  38  28  37  32  43 /  10  90  30  10  50  60
Coeur d`Alene  30  38  29  37  33  41 /  10 100  50  20  60  80
Pullman        33  40  32  40  35  46 /  20 100  50  10  60  70
Lewiston       37  45  33  45  38  50 /  60  60  50  10  60  60
Colville       24  37  23  37  30  39 /  10  80  30  20  60  60
Sandpoint      30  36  29  37  31  39 /  20 100  50  30  70  80
Kellogg        32  35  31  35  32  38 /  50 100  70  20  70  90
Moses Lake     28  43  28  41  33  48 /  10  20  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      33  42  32  41  35  46 /  10  40  10  10  20  30
Omak           27  37  26  37  30  41 /  10  50  10  20  30  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 230027
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
425 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain and snow showers will pass through the southeast
tonight. Another round of rain and snow will arrive Sunday and
could make for slick conditions on area passes. The mountains
will receive another round of heavy snow Monday night into
Tuesday. A break in the active weather pattern will be possible
late in the week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sunday: The main focus for tonight will be an area of
showers associated with a vort max that is currently tracking
along the WA/OR border. As of 2PM, the circulation has crossed the
Cascades and clouds/radar echoes continue to blossom across the
lower Columbia Basin and north Oregon. This will not be an
extremely wet system but localized showers could be intense at
times given the cold and unstable air mass in place. Model trends
have been a bit further south placing the highest precipitation
chances south of a line from La Crosse to Avery...and current HRRR
runs suggest precipitation may struggle to expand north of
Lewiston. Gusty southerly flow ahead of this wave has resulted in
low 50s in the L-C Valley and observations from the Blues/Camas
Prairie suggest the best chance for any snow will be above 4500
feet. A secondary and even smaller wave will drop south from BC
bringing isolated snow showers across the northeast zones (NE
WA/Nrn ID) overnight. Again, these will be rather light.

So the question then becomes how much clearing will we see? This
becomes important because a wetter and more widespread
precipitation event arrives Sunday. This wave is currently visible
on afternoon Water Vapor near 140W off the WA Coast. The lift and
moisture will be much better with this wave and models are in
decent agreement of areas of east of a line from Colville to
Ritzville squeezing out between a tenth to three tenths of liquid.
Snow levels are the wildcard and ultimately comes down to how much
clearing occurs overnight. Our forecast is probably on the lower
end of the spectrum for snow levels and may need to be tweaked up
but would like to see how cold it gets tonight before doing so.
The best chance for lowland snow accumulations of 1-2 inches
will be in the NE valleys with lower amounts into the Upper
Columbia Basin and Spokane-CDA area. Elevations above 2500 feet
will carry the highest probabilities.  The eastern mountains will
receive another 2-5 inches with locally higher amounts in the
Central Panhandle Mtns and this was covered in the latest winter
weather advisory. Snow will also continue along the Cascade Crest
but taper off quickly in the lee of the Cascades where shadowing
normally occurs.

For Sunday, clouds and light precipitation will materialize
throughout the morning and intensify over the ID Panhandle and far
eastern reaches of WA (and Cascade Crest) Sunday afternoon. This
is another reason for lacking valley accumulations but mountain
passes are likely to experience snow covered roads and hazardous
travel. /sb

Sunday night through Tuesday night...Through this period of the
forecast high pressure will build in the eastern Pacific out
between 130-132W. This will keep northwest flow over the region
through Monday night then becoming west-northwest Monday night and
Tuesday. This flow pattern will allow a series of weak
disturbances to track over the ridge and drop through the forecast
area through the entire period.

Northwest flow Sunday night and Monday will keep orographic
showers across the eastern mountains...and some slop over showers
across the Cascade crest. Snow levels for the Panhandle range
from 3K feet across the south to just under 2k for the north
Panhandle. Some of the higher mountains south of I-90 could pick
up 3-4 inches of snow by Monday morning with much less for the
north Panhandle...with 1-3 inches near the Cascade crest.
Otherwise expect a dry forecast with temperatures near persistence
and near seasonal averages.

Monday night through Tuesday night the weather will move through
the region. Model guidance shows this system to have decent
moisture with PWATs going up to .85 or so. Isentropic up-glide
will increase just after 06z and quickly push across the northern
zones and finally into the eastern up-slope areas by morning.
Nothing in the way of a cold front passage will be available to
increase forcing so lift just by isentropic up-glide and
orographics. Still the models are spitting out some pretty hefty
precipitation totals. The lower east slopes and the deep basin
should get shadowed out by the Cascades but will still be able to
squeeze out a little rain.

Snow levels start out around 4K feet across the south and 2K
feet across the north but with south-southwest lower level winds
and moderate warm air advection snow levels will lift above 5k
feet across the south and above 3-3.5k feet across the north by
early Tuesday afternoon. This will result in most of the valleys
below 3k feet getting rain with snow in the mountains. 24-36 hour
snow amounts could be as high as 8-12 inches near the Cascade
crest...5-9 inches for the northeast mountains and Idaho Panhandle
mountains by Wednesday morning. A lot of these amounts will be
very dependent on just how fast the temperatures warm up during
the day Tuesday.

Tuesday will seem quite balmy with temperatures rising into the
upper 30s to lower 50s. Southwest will be on the increase again
Tuesday and Tuesday night with sustain 10-20 mph and gust 25-30
mph. /Tobin

Wednesday through Saturday...The busiest travel day of the year
will be unseasonably warm across the region as gusty southwest
winds keep the atmosphere well mixed. Temperatures will be in the
40s with low 50s possible in the southern valleys. This will keep
any precipitation in liquid form except for the high peaks. Snow
levels will start to drop as winds shift to the west during the
evening hours then become northerly overnight. Medium range models
are in general agreement on shortwave energy riding along a rather
flat ridge with the main threat of precipitation across the
northern zones on Wednesday. By Thanksgiving Day the track of the
band of moisture sinks as far south as the Palouse per the 12Z GFS
while the ECMWF keeps it more to the north. The 12Z GFS also
brings colder temps farther south with the possibility of some
light snow for the I-90 corridor. As I type this, the 18Z run of
the GFS is coming in warmer so there is quite a bit of uncertainty
as to p-type. The general trend will be cooling temperatures in
northerly flow for Friday and Friday night, then a gradual warming
as winds again shift to the southwest ahead of the next warm front
that could affect the Inland Northwest over the weekend. Warm air
moving in over the colder air entrenched at the surface could mean
the possibility of some mixed precipitation. Models disagree on
the southerly extend of the cold air at the surface and also on
the timing of this feature so for now we will keep sleet/FZRA out
of the weather grids. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A weather disturbance is moving through the region late
this afternoon and has initiated convective showers across the
southeast portion of the area...effecting mainly KLWS/KPUW through
04Z. Localized heavy showers may lower cigs/vsby for short
periods. In addition upsloping winds and a saturated boundary
layer will likely result in MVFR/IFR stratus overnight for
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW through 15z. Another wet system will bring
widespread precipitation Sunday with a strong possibility for
several hours of snow at KGEG/KCOE/KSZT/KPUW...snow should turn
over to rain between 19-21z. The precipitation will bring
cig/vsby down to IFR and even LIFR at times through 00z Sunday.
/Tobin



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        30  38  28  37  32  43 /  10  90  30  10  50  60
Coeur d`Alene  30  38  29  37  33  41 /  10 100  50  20  60  80
Pullman        33  40  32  40  35  46 /  20 100  50  10  60  70
Lewiston       37  45  33  45  38  50 /  60  60  50  10  60  60
Colville       24  37  23  37  30  39 /  10  80  30  20  60  60
Sandpoint      30  36  29  37  31  39 /  20 100  50  30  70  80
Kellogg        32  35  31  35  32  38 /  50 100  70  20  70  90
Moses Lake     28  43  28  41  33  48 /  10  20  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      33  42  32  41  35  46 /  10  40  10  10  20  30
Omak           27  37  26  37  30  41 /  10  50  10  20  30  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 230027
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
425 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain and snow showers will pass through the southeast
tonight. Another round of rain and snow will arrive Sunday and
could make for slick conditions on area passes. The mountains
will receive another round of heavy snow Monday night into
Tuesday. A break in the active weather pattern will be possible
late in the week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sunday: The main focus for tonight will be an area of
showers associated with a vort max that is currently tracking
along the WA/OR border. As of 2PM, the circulation has crossed the
Cascades and clouds/radar echoes continue to blossom across the
lower Columbia Basin and north Oregon. This will not be an
extremely wet system but localized showers could be intense at
times given the cold and unstable air mass in place. Model trends
have been a bit further south placing the highest precipitation
chances south of a line from La Crosse to Avery...and current HRRR
runs suggest precipitation may struggle to expand north of
Lewiston. Gusty southerly flow ahead of this wave has resulted in
low 50s in the L-C Valley and observations from the Blues/Camas
Prairie suggest the best chance for any snow will be above 4500
feet. A secondary and even smaller wave will drop south from BC
bringing isolated snow showers across the northeast zones (NE
WA/Nrn ID) overnight. Again, these will be rather light.

So the question then becomes how much clearing will we see? This
becomes important because a wetter and more widespread
precipitation event arrives Sunday. This wave is currently visible
on afternoon Water Vapor near 140W off the WA Coast. The lift and
moisture will be much better with this wave and models are in
decent agreement of areas of east of a line from Colville to
Ritzville squeezing out between a tenth to three tenths of liquid.
Snow levels are the wildcard and ultimately comes down to how much
clearing occurs overnight. Our forecast is probably on the lower
end of the spectrum for snow levels and may need to be tweaked up
but would like to see how cold it gets tonight before doing so.
The best chance for lowland snow accumulations of 1-2 inches
will be in the NE valleys with lower amounts into the Upper
Columbia Basin and Spokane-CDA area. Elevations above 2500 feet
will carry the highest probabilities.  The eastern mountains will
receive another 2-5 inches with locally higher amounts in the
Central Panhandle Mtns and this was covered in the latest winter
weather advisory. Snow will also continue along the Cascade Crest
but taper off quickly in the lee of the Cascades where shadowing
normally occurs.

For Sunday, clouds and light precipitation will materialize
throughout the morning and intensify over the ID Panhandle and far
eastern reaches of WA (and Cascade Crest) Sunday afternoon. This
is another reason for lacking valley accumulations but mountain
passes are likely to experience snow covered roads and hazardous
travel. /sb

Sunday night through Tuesday night...Through this period of the
forecast high pressure will build in the eastern Pacific out
between 130-132W. This will keep northwest flow over the region
through Monday night then becoming west-northwest Monday night and
Tuesday. This flow pattern will allow a series of weak
disturbances to track over the ridge and drop through the forecast
area through the entire period.

Northwest flow Sunday night and Monday will keep orographic
showers across the eastern mountains...and some slop over showers
across the Cascade crest. Snow levels for the Panhandle range
from 3K feet across the south to just under 2k for the north
Panhandle. Some of the higher mountains south of I-90 could pick
up 3-4 inches of snow by Monday morning with much less for the
north Panhandle...with 1-3 inches near the Cascade crest.
Otherwise expect a dry forecast with temperatures near persistence
and near seasonal averages.

Monday night through Tuesday night the weather will move through
the region. Model guidance shows this system to have decent
moisture with PWATs going up to .85 or so. Isentropic up-glide
will increase just after 06z and quickly push across the northern
zones and finally into the eastern up-slope areas by morning.
Nothing in the way of a cold front passage will be available to
increase forcing so lift just by isentropic up-glide and
orographics. Still the models are spitting out some pretty hefty
precipitation totals. The lower east slopes and the deep basin
should get shadowed out by the Cascades but will still be able to
squeeze out a little rain.

Snow levels start out around 4K feet across the south and 2K
feet across the north but with south-southwest lower level winds
and moderate warm air advection snow levels will lift above 5k
feet across the south and above 3-3.5k feet across the north by
early Tuesday afternoon. This will result in most of the valleys
below 3k feet getting rain with snow in the mountains. 24-36 hour
snow amounts could be as high as 8-12 inches near the Cascade
crest...5-9 inches for the northeast mountains and Idaho Panhandle
mountains by Wednesday morning. A lot of these amounts will be
very dependent on just how fast the temperatures warm up during
the day Tuesday.

Tuesday will seem quite balmy with temperatures rising into the
upper 30s to lower 50s. Southwest will be on the increase again
Tuesday and Tuesday night with sustain 10-20 mph and gust 25-30
mph. /Tobin

Wednesday through Saturday...The busiest travel day of the year
will be unseasonably warm across the region as gusty southwest
winds keep the atmosphere well mixed. Temperatures will be in the
40s with low 50s possible in the southern valleys. This will keep
any precipitation in liquid form except for the high peaks. Snow
levels will start to drop as winds shift to the west during the
evening hours then become northerly overnight. Medium range models
are in general agreement on shortwave energy riding along a rather
flat ridge with the main threat of precipitation across the
northern zones on Wednesday. By Thanksgiving Day the track of the
band of moisture sinks as far south as the Palouse per the 12Z GFS
while the ECMWF keeps it more to the north. The 12Z GFS also
brings colder temps farther south with the possibility of some
light snow for the I-90 corridor. As I type this, the 18Z run of
the GFS is coming in warmer so there is quite a bit of uncertainty
as to p-type. The general trend will be cooling temperatures in
northerly flow for Friday and Friday night, then a gradual warming
as winds again shift to the southwest ahead of the next warm front
that could affect the Inland Northwest over the weekend. Warm air
moving in over the colder air entrenched at the surface could mean
the possibility of some mixed precipitation. Models disagree on
the southerly extend of the cold air at the surface and also on
the timing of this feature so for now we will keep sleet/FZRA out
of the weather grids. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A weather disturbance is moving through the region late
this afternoon and has initiated convective showers across the
southeast portion of the area...effecting mainly KLWS/KPUW through
04Z. Localized heavy showers may lower cigs/vsby for short
periods. In addition upsloping winds and a saturated boundary
layer will likely result in MVFR/IFR stratus overnight for
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW through 15z. Another wet system will bring
widespread precipitation Sunday with a strong possibility for
several hours of snow at KGEG/KCOE/KSZT/KPUW...snow should turn
over to rain between 19-21z. The precipitation will bring
cig/vsby down to IFR and even LIFR at times through 00z Sunday.
/Tobin



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        30  38  28  37  32  43 /  10  90  30  10  50  60
Coeur d`Alene  30  38  29  37  33  41 /  10 100  50  20  60  80
Pullman        33  40  32  40  35  46 /  20 100  50  10  60  70
Lewiston       37  45  33  45  38  50 /  60  60  50  10  60  60
Colville       24  37  23  37  30  39 /  10  80  30  20  60  60
Sandpoint      30  36  29  37  31  39 /  20 100  50  30  70  80
Kellogg        32  35  31  35  32  38 /  50 100  70  20  70  90
Moses Lake     28  43  28  41  33  48 /  10  20  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      33  42  32  41  35  46 /  10  40  10  10  20  30
Omak           27  37  26  37  30  41 /  10  50  10  20  30  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 222326
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WESTERN WASHINGTON IS BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH JUST
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT. A VIGOROUS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WESTERN WASHINGTON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MORE WEATHER SYSTEMS MIGHT ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED OFF THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS. THE SNOQUALMIE PASS WEBCAMS WERE SNOWY MIDDAY BUT
SHOW BARE WET ROAD AT 3 PM. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRES
SHORTLY. SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE MIGHT WORK INTO WESTERN WA
TONIGHT. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST EARLY
THIS EVENING FROM ISOLATED CB. THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WESTERN WA SUNDAY...ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THE SYS WAS CENTERED OUT
AROUND 50N 135W THIS AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE AN INSTANT OCCLUSION
AND MIGHT NOT BE VERY WELL TAPPED INTO THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OF
THE BAROCLINIC BAND STREAMING THROUGH 40N 150W. THERE IS A WINTER
STORM WATCH UP FOR THE CASCADES SUNDAY WHERE ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW
MAY SNARL HEAVY WEEKEND TRAFFIC ON THE INTERSTATE. SHOWERS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARMER SYSTEM WILL REACH
THE B.C. COAST EARLY MONDAY WITH RAIN SAGGING SOUTH INTO WRN WA
MONDAY NIGHT AND 850MB TEMPS RISE TOWARD +5C LATER MON NITE.

.LONG TERM...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE NORTH CASCADES TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE REST OF WRN
WA SHOULD RECEIVE LIGHT RAIN WHILE AREAS IN THE LEE OF THE OLYMPICS
COULD BE FAIRLY DRY AND BLUSTERY WITH WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN. THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK LOOKS A LITTLE DIFFERENT IN EACH MODEL AND
THE WEATHER FORECAST FOR THURSDAY IS ESPECIALLY HARD TO FIGURE OUT.
THE 06Z GFS HAD RATHER COOL AIR OVER EASTERN WA WITH STRONG OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS ACROSS THE STATE AND A BREEZY DRY DAY FOR WRN WA ON
THANKSGIVING. NOW THE MODELS LOOK LIKE SOME SORT OF STATIONARY FRONT
COULD BE HUNG UP OVER THE REGION WHICH THEN MERGES WITH THE FIRST OF
A SERIES OF NEW SYSTEMS TRACKING ALONG IN THE PAC WESTERLIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE 12Z AND 18Z GFS SHOWED HEAVY RAIN IN THE NORTH
CASCADES NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN A 36HR PERIOD THRU MIDDAY WED.
THE 12Z ECMWF SPREAD THE RAIN OUT OVER THE ENTIRE CASCADE
RANGE...HAD MUCH LESS RAIN...AND SHIFTED THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BACK
NORTH INTO B.C. RATHER THAN LETTING IT PETER OUT OVER THE CASCADES
LIKE THE 12Z GFS. A HYDRO OUTLOOK PROBABLY COULD BE CONFINED TO JUST
WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES BASED ON THE GFS WHILE THE EURO PROBABLY
DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH PRECIP FOR RIVERS TO MAKE FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BECOMING STRONG SW FOR A
TIME ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND GENERALLY
UNSTABLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH THAT AIR MASS AND ONSHORE
FLOW...A SHOWER OCCASIONALLY MOVES ONTO THE COAST WITH OTHER SHOWERS
FOCUSING ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES. LATE
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST...CAUSING A PICKUP IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY AREAWIDE FROM ABOUT 09Z-16Z ON SUNDAY MORNING.
LOW-LEVEL SW WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AFTN...FOCUSING MAINLY IN THE MTNS
AND IN A DIFFUSE PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE.

KSEA...IN TERMS OF SHOWERS...IN A LULL RIGHT NOW UNTIL THE NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SLOW INCREASE IN SURROUNDING
SHOWER ACTIVITY STARTING AS EARLY AS 06Z...FOLLOWED BY A FASTER
INCREASE AROUND 10Z. SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS WILL ALSO INCRS LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED SFC WINDS PEAKING NEAR 20 KT ARND 15Z SUN
MORNING. ALL THE WHILE AT 4500 FT MSL...SW WINDS WILL PEAK NEAR 50
KT. SW WIND AND SHOWER ACTIVITY BOTH DECREASING QUICKLY ON SUNDAY
AFTN.   HANER

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT WESTERLIES ARE IN PROGRESS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN STRAIT. THEY WILL EASE OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. YET
ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY MORNING. IN
ADVANCE...GRADIENTS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE LATE TONIGHT.
WILL BE A CLOSE CALL WITH GALES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND AT THE
WEST ENTRANCE...BUT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT WINDS OF 25
TO 30 KT FOR NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP LATE TONIGHT
OVER THE INLAND WATERS...AS THE OLM-BLI GRADIENT PEAK AROUND +4 MB
FROM 4-7 AM.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP. A BRIEF
SURGE TO GALE-FORCE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT SEEMS MORE
LIKELY THAN NOT BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING...SO HAVE GONE WITH A GALE
WARNING THERE.

IN TERMS OF WIND...A LULL IN WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BE CENTERED ON THE
TIME AROUND LATE SUNDAY EVENING. THEN A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A
STEADY INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WIND ON MON AND MON NGT. ON TUE...THE
FRONT WILL TURN UP STATIONARY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...WITH
FAIRLY STRONG SW FLOW ON TUE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT.
HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT TIL 5 PM TODAY FOR THE
     CENTRAL CASCADES ABOVE 2500 FEET.

     WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR THE CASCADES ABOVE 3000 FEET.

PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINING WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML











000
FXUS66 KSEW 222326
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WESTERN WASHINGTON IS BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH JUST
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT. A VIGOROUS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WESTERN WASHINGTON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MORE WEATHER SYSTEMS MIGHT ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED OFF THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS. THE SNOQUALMIE PASS WEBCAMS WERE SNOWY MIDDAY BUT
SHOW BARE WET ROAD AT 3 PM. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRES
SHORTLY. SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE MIGHT WORK INTO WESTERN WA
TONIGHT. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST EARLY
THIS EVENING FROM ISOLATED CB. THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WESTERN WA SUNDAY...ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THE SYS WAS CENTERED OUT
AROUND 50N 135W THIS AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE AN INSTANT OCCLUSION
AND MIGHT NOT BE VERY WELL TAPPED INTO THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OF
THE BAROCLINIC BAND STREAMING THROUGH 40N 150W. THERE IS A WINTER
STORM WATCH UP FOR THE CASCADES SUNDAY WHERE ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW
MAY SNARL HEAVY WEEKEND TRAFFIC ON THE INTERSTATE. SHOWERS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARMER SYSTEM WILL REACH
THE B.C. COAST EARLY MONDAY WITH RAIN SAGGING SOUTH INTO WRN WA
MONDAY NIGHT AND 850MB TEMPS RISE TOWARD +5C LATER MON NITE.

.LONG TERM...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE NORTH CASCADES TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE REST OF WRN
WA SHOULD RECEIVE LIGHT RAIN WHILE AREAS IN THE LEE OF THE OLYMPICS
COULD BE FAIRLY DRY AND BLUSTERY WITH WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN. THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK LOOKS A LITTLE DIFFERENT IN EACH MODEL AND
THE WEATHER FORECAST FOR THURSDAY IS ESPECIALLY HARD TO FIGURE OUT.
THE 06Z GFS HAD RATHER COOL AIR OVER EASTERN WA WITH STRONG OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS ACROSS THE STATE AND A BREEZY DRY DAY FOR WRN WA ON
THANKSGIVING. NOW THE MODELS LOOK LIKE SOME SORT OF STATIONARY FRONT
COULD BE HUNG UP OVER THE REGION WHICH THEN MERGES WITH THE FIRST OF
A SERIES OF NEW SYSTEMS TRACKING ALONG IN THE PAC WESTERLIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE 12Z AND 18Z GFS SHOWED HEAVY RAIN IN THE NORTH
CASCADES NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN A 36HR PERIOD THRU MIDDAY WED.
THE 12Z ECMWF SPREAD THE RAIN OUT OVER THE ENTIRE CASCADE
RANGE...HAD MUCH LESS RAIN...AND SHIFTED THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BACK
NORTH INTO B.C. RATHER THAN LETTING IT PETER OUT OVER THE CASCADES
LIKE THE 12Z GFS. A HYDRO OUTLOOK PROBABLY COULD BE CONFINED TO JUST
WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES BASED ON THE GFS WHILE THE EURO PROBABLY
DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH PRECIP FOR RIVERS TO MAKE FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BECOMING STRONG SW FOR A
TIME ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND GENERALLY
UNSTABLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH THAT AIR MASS AND ONSHORE
FLOW...A SHOWER OCCASIONALLY MOVES ONTO THE COAST WITH OTHER SHOWERS
FOCUSING ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES. LATE
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST...CAUSING A PICKUP IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY AREAWIDE FROM ABOUT 09Z-16Z ON SUNDAY MORNING.
LOW-LEVEL SW WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AFTN...FOCUSING MAINLY IN THE MTNS
AND IN A DIFFUSE PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE.

KSEA...IN TERMS OF SHOWERS...IN A LULL RIGHT NOW UNTIL THE NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SLOW INCREASE IN SURROUNDING
SHOWER ACTIVITY STARTING AS EARLY AS 06Z...FOLLOWED BY A FASTER
INCREASE AROUND 10Z. SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS WILL ALSO INCRS LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED SFC WINDS PEAKING NEAR 20 KT ARND 15Z SUN
MORNING. ALL THE WHILE AT 4500 FT MSL...SW WINDS WILL PEAK NEAR 50
KT. SW WIND AND SHOWER ACTIVITY BOTH DECREASING QUICKLY ON SUNDAY
AFTN.   HANER

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT WESTERLIES ARE IN PROGRESS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN STRAIT. THEY WILL EASE OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. YET
ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY MORNING. IN
ADVANCE...GRADIENTS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE LATE TONIGHT.
WILL BE A CLOSE CALL WITH GALES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND AT THE
WEST ENTRANCE...BUT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT WINDS OF 25
TO 30 KT FOR NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP LATE TONIGHT
OVER THE INLAND WATERS...AS THE OLM-BLI GRADIENT PEAK AROUND +4 MB
FROM 4-7 AM.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP. A BRIEF
SURGE TO GALE-FORCE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT SEEMS MORE
LIKELY THAN NOT BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING...SO HAVE GONE WITH A GALE
WARNING THERE.

IN TERMS OF WIND...A LULL IN WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BE CENTERED ON THE
TIME AROUND LATE SUNDAY EVENING. THEN A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A
STEADY INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WIND ON MON AND MON NGT. ON TUE...THE
FRONT WILL TURN UP STATIONARY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...WITH
FAIRLY STRONG SW FLOW ON TUE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT.
HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT TIL 5 PM TODAY FOR THE
     CENTRAL CASCADES ABOVE 2500 FEET.

     WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR THE CASCADES ABOVE 3000 FEET.

PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINING WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KPQR 222256
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
256 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AND LATE
TONIGHT. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO SW
WASHINGTON SUNDAY MORNING. .MOVING SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE
WILL BE A BREAK IN RAIN MONDAY BEFORE A WARMER SYSTEM BRINGS
ADDITIONAL RAIN FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.THE NEXT FRONT IS
EXPECTED THANKSGIVING NIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A FEW UPPER SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NE PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW THIS EVENING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE ARE
CURRENTLY AROUND 4500 FEET. WEB CAMS SHOWS SNOW SHOWERS AT THE
WILLAMETTE...SANTIAM...AND TOMBSTONE PASSES WHICH ARE AT AROUND
5100...4800...AND 4200 FEET RESPECTIVELY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE SNOW
LEVEL IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN 4000 AND 4000 FEET. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL
CHANGE VERY LITTLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE SHOWERS ARE DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS MORE SHOWERS OFFSHORE APPROACHING THE AREA. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DETECTED WITH THESE OFFSHORE SHOWERS AND HAVE CONTINUED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 7PM. SINCE THESE SHOWERS MAY NOT
MAKE IT TO THE CASCADES UNTIL AROUND 9 PM AM HESITANT TO END THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT MIDNIGHT END
TIME...EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE A CONSIDERATE BREAK IN SHOWERS
BETWEEN 4 AND 9 PM.

THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. CLOUD BREAKS MAY LEAD TO
RADIATION COOLING AND FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS SOUTH OF SALEM. THE
NORTH IS LESS LIKELY TO HAVE FOG DUE TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND
POSSIBLY CLOUDIER SKIES. THE CLOUDIER SKIES WILL BE DUE TO THE NEXT
APPROACHING FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW.

DESPITE THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT WILL SNEAK
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS FRONT DOES NOT LOOK WELL DEFINED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY YET...BUT THE MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN RAIN AT THE SW WASHINGTON SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE...SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.

THE HIGHEST QPF WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER WHERE
THE SW WASHINGTON COAST AND THE WILLAPA HILLS CAN EXPECT AROUND A
HALF AN INCH OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SW WASHINGTON
CASCADES WILL SEE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS...AROUND 0.75 TO 1 INCH FOR
ELEVATIONS BELOW 4000 FEET...AND POSSIBLY 4 TO 9 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
ADDITIONAL SNOW ABOVE 4000 FEET. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED ANOTHER WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
4000 FEET.

PRECIPITATION WILL BE LESS FOR NW OREGON AND EXPECT AMOUNTS TO
BECOME GRADUALLY LESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH TOTALS FROM 0.40
INCH JUST NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER TO 0.10 INCHES ACROSS LANE COUNTY.

SHOWERS WILL DRAMATICALLY DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND EXPECT
MORE VALLEY FOG MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...BUT NW
OREGON WILL BE BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE TO THE SW AND ONE TO
THE NW. MODELS ARE LEANING TOWARDS KEEPING THESE STORMS OFFSHORE
MONDAY AND HAVE REDUCED POPS QUITE A BIT. HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF
THESE TWO STORMS WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE COAST AND
CASCADES.

THE TWO WEAK STORMS MAY MERGE OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING AND PUSH
ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT ON THIS BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS. THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD
BRING WARMER AIR TO THE REGION AND RAISE SNOW LEVELS WELL ABOVE THE
PASSES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TJ

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING OUT ON TUESDAY.
THEY TEND TO KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH WHICH JUSTIFIED
LOWERING THE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT KEEPING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
ALONG THE COAST. THE RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY...BUT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. A MUCH
STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH
COULD POSE A THREAT TO TRAVELERS RETURNING AFTER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY. DETAILS AT THIS POINT ARE STILL UNKNOWN AND WILL BE REFINED
WITH FUTURE UPDATES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. /64
&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BEING OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON IN
A SHOWERY AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG OR LOW STRATUS WILL
FORM OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH INCLUDING KEUG AND KSLE.
THINK IT WILL STAY WELL MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP VFR IN CONTROL AT THE
COAST AND OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR SITES. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
WORK IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUN MORNING...BRINGING INCREASING RAIN
AND LIKELY MVFR CIGS TO THE NORTHERNMOST TAF SITES BETWEEN 15Z AND
18Z. THE FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD
TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO SUN MORNING. A FRONT MOVING
IN FROM THE NORTH WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS IN
BY AROUND 18Z SUN. PYLE
&&

.MARINE...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS EARLIER TODAY HAVE EASED SOMEWHAT
THIS AFTERNOON...AND ARE NOW AROUND 15 KT. DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND
CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS THAT WAS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LULL IN THE WINDS SHOULD LAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AGAIN SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE YET
ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS MORE SMALL CRAFT WINDS ON MON.

SEAS REMAIN AROUND 12 TO 13 FT AND SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS MAY THEN INCREASE A BIT MORE INTO THE MID
TEENS ON SUN. THE NEXT FRONT ON MON AND SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH TO OUR NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE
10 FT UNTIL MIDWEEK. THE LATEST ENP WAVE GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS
THEY FALL BELOW 10 FT TUE OR WED.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR CASCADES
     IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 AM TO 2 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM PST
     SUNDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 222238
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
238 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain and snow showers will pass through the southeast
tonight. Another round of rain and snow will arrive Sunday and
could make for slick conditions on area passes. The mountains
will receive another round of heavy snow Monday night into
Tuesday. A break in the active weather pattern will be possible
late in the week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sunday: The main focus for tonight will be an area of
showers associated with a vort max that is currently tracking
along the WA/OR border. As of 2PM, the circulation has crossed the
Cascades and clouds/radar echoes continue to blossom across the
lower Columbia Basin and north Oregon. This will not be an
extremely wet system but localized showers could be intense at
times given the cold and unstable air mass in place. Model trends
have been a bit further south placing the highest precipitation
chances south of a line from La Crosse to Avery...and current HRRR
runs suggest precipitation may struggle to expand north of
Lewiston. Gusty southerly flow ahead of this wave has resulted in
low 50s in the L-C Valley and observations from the Blues/Camas
Prairie suggest the best chance for any snow will be above 4500
feet. A secondary and even smaller wave will drop south from BC
bringing isolated snow showers across the northeast zones (NE
WA/Nrn ID) overnight. Again, these will be rather light.

So the question then becomes how much clearing will we see? This
becomes important because a wetter and more widespread
precipitation event arrives Sunday. This wave is currently visible
on afternoon Water Vapor near 140W off the WA Coast. The lift and
moisture will be much better with this wave and models are in
decent agreement of areas of east of a line from Colville to
Ritzville squeezing out between a tenth to three tenths of liquid.
Snow levels are the wildcard and ultimately comes down to how much
clearing occurs overnight. Our forecast is probably on the lower
end of the spectrum for snow levels and may need to be tweaked up
but would like to see how cold it gets tonight before doing so.
The best chance for lowland snow accumulations of 1-2 inches
will be in the NE valleys with lower amounts into the Upper
Columbia Basin and Spokane-CDA area. Elevations above 2500 feet
will carry the highest probabilities.  The eastern mountains will
receive another 2-5 inches with locally higher amounts in the
Central Panhandle Mtns and this was covered in the latest winter
weather advisory. Snow will also continue along the Cascade Crest
but taper off quickly in the lee of the Cascades where shadowing
normally occurs.

For Sunday, clouds and light precipitation will materialize
throughout the morning and intensify over the ID Panhandle and far
eastern reaches of WA (and Cascade Crest) Sunday afternoon. This
is another reason for lacking valley accumulations but mountain
passes are likely to experience snow covered roads and hazardous
travel. /sb

Sunday night through Tuesday night...Through this period of the
forecast high pressure will build in the eastern Pacific out
between 130-132W. This will keep northwest flow over the region
through Monday night then becoming west-northwest Monday night and
Tuesday. This flow pattern will allow a series of weak
disturbances to track over the ridge and drop through the forecast
area through the entire period.

Northwest flow Sunday night and Monday will keep orographic
showers across the eastern mountains...and some slop over showers
across the Cascade crest. Snow levels for the Panhandle range
from 3K feet across the south to just under 2k for the north
Panhandle. Some of the higher mountains south of I-90 could pick
up 3-4 inches of snow by Monday morning with much less for the
north Panhandle...with 1-3 inches near the Cascade crest.
Otherwise expect a dry forecast with temperatures near persistence
and near seasonal averages.

Monday night through Tuesday night the weather will move through
the region. Model guidance shows this system to have decent
moisture with PWATs going up to .85 or so. Isentropic up-glide
will increase just after 06z and quickly push across the northern
zones and finally into the eastern up-slope areas by morning.
Nothing in the way of a cold front passage will be available to
increase forcing so lift just by isentropic up-glide and
orographics. Still the models are spitting out some pretty hefty
precipitation totals. The lower east slopes and the deep basin
should get shadowed out by the Cascades but will still be able to
squeeze out a little rain.

Snow levels start out around 4K feet across the south and 2K
feet across the north but with south-southwest lower level winds
and moderate warm air advection snow levels will lift above 5k
feet across the south and above 3-3.5k feet across the north by
early Tuesday afternoon. This will result in most of the valleys
below 3k feet getting rain with snow in the mountains. 24-36 hour
snow amounts could be as high as 8-12 inches near the Cascade
crest...5-9 inches for the northeast mountains and Idaho Panhandle
mountains by Wednesday morning. A lot of these amounts will be
very dependent on just how fast the temperatures warm up during
the day Tuesday.

Tuesday will seem quite balmy with temperatures rising into the
upper 30s to lower 50s. Southwest will be on the increase again
Tuesday and Tuesday night with sustain 10-20 mph and gust 25-30
mph. /Tobin

Wednesday through Saturday...The busiest travel day of the year
will be unseasonably warm across the region as gusty southwest
winds keep the atmosphere well mixed. Temperatures will be in the
40s with low 50s possible in the southern valleys. This will keep
any precipitation in liquid form except for the high peaks. Snow
levels will start to drop as winds shift to the west during the
evening hours then become northerly overnight. Medium range models
are in general agreement on shortwave energy riding along a rather
flat ridge with the main threat of precipitation across the
northern zones on Wednesday. By Thanksgiving Day the track of the
band of moisture sinks as far south as the Palouse per the 12Z GFS
while the ECMWF keeps it more to the north. The 12Z GFS also
brings colder temps farther south with the possibility of some
light snow for the I-90 corridor. As I type this, the 18Z run of
the GFS is coming in warmer so there is quite a bit of uncertainty
as to p-type. The general trend will be cooling temperatures in
northerly flow for Friday and Friday night, then a gradual warming
as winds again shift to the southwest ahead of the next warm front
that could affect the Inland Northwest over the weekend. Warm air
moving in over the colder air entrenched at the surface could mean
the possibility of some mixed precipitation. Models disagree on
the southerly extend of the cold air at the surface and also on
the timing of this feature so for now we will keep sleet/FZRA out
of the weather grids. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The focus for this afternoon and evening will be vort
max currently moving across the Cascades which will track along
the WA/OR border. This feature is bringing less wind than previous
thought and will incr cloud cover for most terminals. Areas of
rain will impact Pullman and Lewiston and a combination of upslope
winds and moistening boundary layer will promote an incr risk for
MVFR/IFR stratus overnight. A wetter system bring more wdsprd
precip Sunday with a strong possibility for several hours of snow
at Spokane, Coeur D Alene, Sandpoint, and potentially Pullman. The
precip is likely to bring regional ceiling and vis restrictions.
/sb



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        30  38  28  37  32  43 /  10  90  30  10  50  60
Coeur d`Alene  30  38  29  37  33  41 /  10 100  50  20  60  80
Pullman        33  40  32  40  35  46 /  20 100  50  10  60  70
Lewiston       37  45  33  45  38  50 /  60  60  50  10  60  60
Colville       24  37  23  37  30  39 /  10  80  30  20  60  60
Sandpoint      30  36  29  37  31  39 /  20 100  50  30  70  80
Kellogg        32  35  31  35  32  38 /  50 100  70  20  70  90
Moses Lake     28  43  28  41  33  48 /  10  20  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      33  42  32  41  35  46 /  10  40  10  10  20  30
Omak           27  37  26  37  30  41 /  10  50  10  20  30  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 222238
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
238 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain and snow showers will pass through the southeast
tonight. Another round of rain and snow will arrive Sunday and
could make for slick conditions on area passes. The mountains
will receive another round of heavy snow Monday night into
Tuesday. A break in the active weather pattern will be possible
late in the week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sunday: The main focus for tonight will be an area of
showers associated with a vort max that is currently tracking
along the WA/OR border. As of 2PM, the circulation has crossed the
Cascades and clouds/radar echoes continue to blossom across the
lower Columbia Basin and north Oregon. This will not be an
extremely wet system but localized showers could be intense at
times given the cold and unstable air mass in place. Model trends
have been a bit further south placing the highest precipitation
chances south of a line from La Crosse to Avery...and current HRRR
runs suggest precipitation may struggle to expand north of
Lewiston. Gusty southerly flow ahead of this wave has resulted in
low 50s in the L-C Valley and observations from the Blues/Camas
Prairie suggest the best chance for any snow will be above 4500
feet. A secondary and even smaller wave will drop south from BC
bringing isolated snow showers across the northeast zones (NE
WA/Nrn ID) overnight. Again, these will be rather light.

So the question then becomes how much clearing will we see? This
becomes important because a wetter and more widespread
precipitation event arrives Sunday. This wave is currently visible
on afternoon Water Vapor near 140W off the WA Coast. The lift and
moisture will be much better with this wave and models are in
decent agreement of areas of east of a line from Colville to
Ritzville squeezing out between a tenth to three tenths of liquid.
Snow levels are the wildcard and ultimately comes down to how much
clearing occurs overnight. Our forecast is probably on the lower
end of the spectrum for snow levels and may need to be tweaked up
but would like to see how cold it gets tonight before doing so.
The best chance for lowland snow accumulations of 1-2 inches
will be in the NE valleys with lower amounts into the Upper
Columbia Basin and Spokane-CDA area. Elevations above 2500 feet
will carry the highest probabilities.  The eastern mountains will
receive another 2-5 inches with locally higher amounts in the
Central Panhandle Mtns and this was covered in the latest winter
weather advisory. Snow will also continue along the Cascade Crest
but taper off quickly in the lee of the Cascades where shadowing
normally occurs.

For Sunday, clouds and light precipitation will materialize
throughout the morning and intensify over the ID Panhandle and far
eastern reaches of WA (and Cascade Crest) Sunday afternoon. This
is another reason for lacking valley accumulations but mountain
passes are likely to experience snow covered roads and hazardous
travel. /sb

Sunday night through Tuesday night...Through this period of the
forecast high pressure will build in the eastern Pacific out
between 130-132W. This will keep northwest flow over the region
through Monday night then becoming west-northwest Monday night and
Tuesday. This flow pattern will allow a series of weak
disturbances to track over the ridge and drop through the forecast
area through the entire period.

Northwest flow Sunday night and Monday will keep orographic
showers across the eastern mountains...and some slop over showers
across the Cascade crest. Snow levels for the Panhandle range
from 3K feet across the south to just under 2k for the north
Panhandle. Some of the higher mountains south of I-90 could pick
up 3-4 inches of snow by Monday morning with much less for the
north Panhandle...with 1-3 inches near the Cascade crest.
Otherwise expect a dry forecast with temperatures near persistence
and near seasonal averages.

Monday night through Tuesday night the weather will move through
the region. Model guidance shows this system to have decent
moisture with PWATs going up to .85 or so. Isentropic up-glide
will increase just after 06z and quickly push across the northern
zones and finally into the eastern up-slope areas by morning.
Nothing in the way of a cold front passage will be available to
increase forcing so lift just by isentropic up-glide and
orographics. Still the models are spitting out some pretty hefty
precipitation totals. The lower east slopes and the deep basin
should get shadowed out by the Cascades but will still be able to
squeeze out a little rain.

Snow levels start out around 4K feet across the south and 2K
feet across the north but with south-southwest lower level winds
and moderate warm air advection snow levels will lift above 5k
feet across the south and above 3-3.5k feet across the north by
early Tuesday afternoon. This will result in most of the valleys
below 3k feet getting rain with snow in the mountains. 24-36 hour
snow amounts could be as high as 8-12 inches near the Cascade
crest...5-9 inches for the northeast mountains and Idaho Panhandle
mountains by Wednesday morning. A lot of these amounts will be
very dependent on just how fast the temperatures warm up during
the day Tuesday.

Tuesday will seem quite balmy with temperatures rising into the
upper 30s to lower 50s. Southwest will be on the increase again
Tuesday and Tuesday night with sustain 10-20 mph and gust 25-30
mph. /Tobin

Wednesday through Saturday...The busiest travel day of the year
will be unseasonably warm across the region as gusty southwest
winds keep the atmosphere well mixed. Temperatures will be in the
40s with low 50s possible in the southern valleys. This will keep
any precipitation in liquid form except for the high peaks. Snow
levels will start to drop as winds shift to the west during the
evening hours then become northerly overnight. Medium range models
are in general agreement on shortwave energy riding along a rather
flat ridge with the main threat of precipitation across the
northern zones on Wednesday. By Thanksgiving Day the track of the
band of moisture sinks as far south as the Palouse per the 12Z GFS
while the ECMWF keeps it more to the north. The 12Z GFS also
brings colder temps farther south with the possibility of some
light snow for the I-90 corridor. As I type this, the 18Z run of
the GFS is coming in warmer so there is quite a bit of uncertainty
as to p-type. The general trend will be cooling temperatures in
northerly flow for Friday and Friday night, then a gradual warming
as winds again shift to the southwest ahead of the next warm front
that could affect the Inland Northwest over the weekend. Warm air
moving in over the colder air entrenched at the surface could mean
the possibility of some mixed precipitation. Models disagree on
the southerly extend of the cold air at the surface and also on
the timing of this feature so for now we will keep sleet/FZRA out
of the weather grids. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The focus for this afternoon and evening will be vort
max currently moving across the Cascades which will track along
the WA/OR border. This feature is bringing less wind than previous
thought and will incr cloud cover for most terminals. Areas of
rain will impact Pullman and Lewiston and a combination of upslope
winds and moistening boundary layer will promote an incr risk for
MVFR/IFR stratus overnight. A wetter system bring more wdsprd
precip Sunday with a strong possibility for several hours of snow
at Spokane, Coeur D Alene, Sandpoint, and potentially Pullman. The
precip is likely to bring regional ceiling and vis restrictions.
/sb



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        30  38  28  37  32  43 /  10  90  30  10  50  60
Coeur d`Alene  30  38  29  37  33  41 /  10 100  50  20  60  80
Pullman        33  40  32  40  35  46 /  20 100  50  10  60  70
Lewiston       37  45  33  45  38  50 /  60  60  50  10  60  60
Colville       24  37  23  37  30  39 /  10  80  30  20  60  60
Sandpoint      30  36  29  37  31  39 /  20 100  50  30  70  80
Kellogg        32  35  31  35  32  38 /  50 100  70  20  70  90
Moses Lake     28  43  28  41  33  48 /  10  20  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      33  42  32  41  35  46 /  10  40  10  10  20  30
Omak           27  37  26  37  30  41 /  10  50  10  20  30  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 222238
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
238 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain and snow showers will pass through the southeast
tonight. Another round of rain and snow will arrive Sunday and
could make for slick conditions on area passes. The mountains
will receive another round of heavy snow Monday night into
Tuesday. A break in the active weather pattern will be possible
late in the week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sunday: The main focus for tonight will be an area of
showers associated with a vort max that is currently tracking
along the WA/OR border. As of 2PM, the circulation has crossed the
Cascades and clouds/radar echoes continue to blossom across the
lower Columbia Basin and north Oregon. This will not be an
extremely wet system but localized showers could be intense at
times given the cold and unstable air mass in place. Model trends
have been a bit further south placing the highest precipitation
chances south of a line from La Crosse to Avery...and current HRRR
runs suggest precipitation may struggle to expand north of
Lewiston. Gusty southerly flow ahead of this wave has resulted in
low 50s in the L-C Valley and observations from the Blues/Camas
Prairie suggest the best chance for any snow will be above 4500
feet. A secondary and even smaller wave will drop south from BC
bringing isolated snow showers across the northeast zones (NE
WA/Nrn ID) overnight. Again, these will be rather light.

So the question then becomes how much clearing will we see? This
becomes important because a wetter and more widespread
precipitation event arrives Sunday. This wave is currently visible
on afternoon Water Vapor near 140W off the WA Coast. The lift and
moisture will be much better with this wave and models are in
decent agreement of areas of east of a line from Colville to
Ritzville squeezing out between a tenth to three tenths of liquid.
Snow levels are the wildcard and ultimately comes down to how much
clearing occurs overnight. Our forecast is probably on the lower
end of the spectrum for snow levels and may need to be tweaked up
but would like to see how cold it gets tonight before doing so.
The best chance for lowland snow accumulations of 1-2 inches
will be in the NE valleys with lower amounts into the Upper
Columbia Basin and Spokane-CDA area. Elevations above 2500 feet
will carry the highest probabilities.  The eastern mountains will
receive another 2-5 inches with locally higher amounts in the
Central Panhandle Mtns and this was covered in the latest winter
weather advisory. Snow will also continue along the Cascade Crest
but taper off quickly in the lee of the Cascades where shadowing
normally occurs.

For Sunday, clouds and light precipitation will materialize
throughout the morning and intensify over the ID Panhandle and far
eastern reaches of WA (and Cascade Crest) Sunday afternoon. This
is another reason for lacking valley accumulations but mountain
passes are likely to experience snow covered roads and hazardous
travel. /sb

Sunday night through Tuesday night...Through this period of the
forecast high pressure will build in the eastern Pacific out
between 130-132W. This will keep northwest flow over the region
through Monday night then becoming west-northwest Monday night and
Tuesday. This flow pattern will allow a series of weak
disturbances to track over the ridge and drop through the forecast
area through the entire period.

Northwest flow Sunday night and Monday will keep orographic
showers across the eastern mountains...and some slop over showers
across the Cascade crest. Snow levels for the Panhandle range
from 3K feet across the south to just under 2k for the north
Panhandle. Some of the higher mountains south of I-90 could pick
up 3-4 inches of snow by Monday morning with much less for the
north Panhandle...with 1-3 inches near the Cascade crest.
Otherwise expect a dry forecast with temperatures near persistence
and near seasonal averages.

Monday night through Tuesday night the weather will move through
the region. Model guidance shows this system to have decent
moisture with PWATs going up to .85 or so. Isentropic up-glide
will increase just after 06z and quickly push across the northern
zones and finally into the eastern up-slope areas by morning.
Nothing in the way of a cold front passage will be available to
increase forcing so lift just by isentropic up-glide and
orographics. Still the models are spitting out some pretty hefty
precipitation totals. The lower east slopes and the deep basin
should get shadowed out by the Cascades but will still be able to
squeeze out a little rain.

Snow levels start out around 4K feet across the south and 2K
feet across the north but with south-southwest lower level winds
and moderate warm air advection snow levels will lift above 5k
feet across the south and above 3-3.5k feet across the north by
early Tuesday afternoon. This will result in most of the valleys
below 3k feet getting rain with snow in the mountains. 24-36 hour
snow amounts could be as high as 8-12 inches near the Cascade
crest...5-9 inches for the northeast mountains and Idaho Panhandle
mountains by Wednesday morning. A lot of these amounts will be
very dependent on just how fast the temperatures warm up during
the day Tuesday.

Tuesday will seem quite balmy with temperatures rising into the
upper 30s to lower 50s. Southwest will be on the increase again
Tuesday and Tuesday night with sustain 10-20 mph and gust 25-30
mph. /Tobin

Wednesday through Saturday...The busiest travel day of the year
will be unseasonably warm across the region as gusty southwest
winds keep the atmosphere well mixed. Temperatures will be in the
40s with low 50s possible in the southern valleys. This will keep
any precipitation in liquid form except for the high peaks. Snow
levels will start to drop as winds shift to the west during the
evening hours then become northerly overnight. Medium range models
are in general agreement on shortwave energy riding along a rather
flat ridge with the main threat of precipitation across the
northern zones on Wednesday. By Thanksgiving Day the track of the
band of moisture sinks as far south as the Palouse per the 12Z GFS
while the ECMWF keeps it more to the north. The 12Z GFS also
brings colder temps farther south with the possibility of some
light snow for the I-90 corridor. As I type this, the 18Z run of
the GFS is coming in warmer so there is quite a bit of uncertainty
as to p-type. The general trend will be cooling temperatures in
northerly flow for Friday and Friday night, then a gradual warming
as winds again shift to the southwest ahead of the next warm front
that could affect the Inland Northwest over the weekend. Warm air
moving in over the colder air entrenched at the surface could mean
the possibility of some mixed precipitation. Models disagree on
the southerly extend of the cold air at the surface and also on
the timing of this feature so for now we will keep sleet/FZRA out
of the weather grids. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The focus for this afternoon and evening will be vort
max currently moving across the Cascades which will track along
the WA/OR border. This feature is bringing less wind than previous
thought and will incr cloud cover for most terminals. Areas of
rain will impact Pullman and Lewiston and a combination of upslope
winds and moistening boundary layer will promote an incr risk for
MVFR/IFR stratus overnight. A wetter system bring more wdsprd
precip Sunday with a strong possibility for several hours of snow
at Spokane, Coeur D Alene, Sandpoint, and potentially Pullman. The
precip is likely to bring regional ceiling and vis restrictions.
/sb



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        30  38  28  37  32  43 /  10  90  30  10  50  60
Coeur d`Alene  30  38  29  37  33  41 /  10 100  50  20  60  80
Pullman        33  40  32  40  35  46 /  20 100  50  10  60  70
Lewiston       37  45  33  45  38  50 /  60  60  50  10  60  60
Colville       24  37  23  37  30  39 /  10  80  30  20  60  60
Sandpoint      30  36  29  37  31  39 /  20 100  50  30  70  80
Kellogg        32  35  31  35  32  38 /  50 100  70  20  70  90
Moses Lake     28  43  28  41  33  48 /  10  20  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      33  42  32  41  35  46 /  10  40  10  10  20  30
Omak           27  37  26  37  30  41 /  10  50  10  20  30  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 222238
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
238 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain and snow showers will pass through the southeast
tonight. Another round of rain and snow will arrive Sunday and
could make for slick conditions on area passes. The mountains
will receive another round of heavy snow Monday night into
Tuesday. A break in the active weather pattern will be possible
late in the week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sunday: The main focus for tonight will be an area of
showers associated with a vort max that is currently tracking
along the WA/OR border. As of 2PM, the circulation has crossed the
Cascades and clouds/radar echoes continue to blossom across the
lower Columbia Basin and north Oregon. This will not be an
extremely wet system but localized showers could be intense at
times given the cold and unstable air mass in place. Model trends
have been a bit further south placing the highest precipitation
chances south of a line from La Crosse to Avery...and current HRRR
runs suggest precipitation may struggle to expand north of
Lewiston. Gusty southerly flow ahead of this wave has resulted in
low 50s in the L-C Valley and observations from the Blues/Camas
Prairie suggest the best chance for any snow will be above 4500
feet. A secondary and even smaller wave will drop south from BC
bringing isolated snow showers across the northeast zones (NE
WA/Nrn ID) overnight. Again, these will be rather light.

So the question then becomes how much clearing will we see? This
becomes important because a wetter and more widespread
precipitation event arrives Sunday. This wave is currently visible
on afternoon Water Vapor near 140W off the WA Coast. The lift and
moisture will be much better with this wave and models are in
decent agreement of areas of east of a line from Colville to
Ritzville squeezing out between a tenth to three tenths of liquid.
Snow levels are the wildcard and ultimately comes down to how much
clearing occurs overnight. Our forecast is probably on the lower
end of the spectrum for snow levels and may need to be tweaked up
but would like to see how cold it gets tonight before doing so.
The best chance for lowland snow accumulations of 1-2 inches
will be in the NE valleys with lower amounts into the Upper
Columbia Basin and Spokane-CDA area. Elevations above 2500 feet
will carry the highest probabilities.  The eastern mountains will
receive another 2-5 inches with locally higher amounts in the
Central Panhandle Mtns and this was covered in the latest winter
weather advisory. Snow will also continue along the Cascade Crest
but taper off quickly in the lee of the Cascades where shadowing
normally occurs.

For Sunday, clouds and light precipitation will materialize
throughout the morning and intensify over the ID Panhandle and far
eastern reaches of WA (and Cascade Crest) Sunday afternoon. This
is another reason for lacking valley accumulations but mountain
passes are likely to experience snow covered roads and hazardous
travel. /sb

Sunday night through Tuesday night...Through this period of the
forecast high pressure will build in the eastern Pacific out
between 130-132W. This will keep northwest flow over the region
through Monday night then becoming west-northwest Monday night and
Tuesday. This flow pattern will allow a series of weak
disturbances to track over the ridge and drop through the forecast
area through the entire period.

Northwest flow Sunday night and Monday will keep orographic
showers across the eastern mountains...and some slop over showers
across the Cascade crest. Snow levels for the Panhandle range
from 3K feet across the south to just under 2k for the north
Panhandle. Some of the higher mountains south of I-90 could pick
up 3-4 inches of snow by Monday morning with much less for the
north Panhandle...with 1-3 inches near the Cascade crest.
Otherwise expect a dry forecast with temperatures near persistence
and near seasonal averages.

Monday night through Tuesday night the weather will move through
the region. Model guidance shows this system to have decent
moisture with PWATs going up to .85 or so. Isentropic up-glide
will increase just after 06z and quickly push across the northern
zones and finally into the eastern up-slope areas by morning.
Nothing in the way of a cold front passage will be available to
increase forcing so lift just by isentropic up-glide and
orographics. Still the models are spitting out some pretty hefty
precipitation totals. The lower east slopes and the deep basin
should get shadowed out by the Cascades but will still be able to
squeeze out a little rain.

Snow levels start out around 4K feet across the south and 2K
feet across the north but with south-southwest lower level winds
and moderate warm air advection snow levels will lift above 5k
feet across the south and above 3-3.5k feet across the north by
early Tuesday afternoon. This will result in most of the valleys
below 3k feet getting rain with snow in the mountains. 24-36 hour
snow amounts could be as high as 8-12 inches near the Cascade
crest...5-9 inches for the northeast mountains and Idaho Panhandle
mountains by Wednesday morning. A lot of these amounts will be
very dependent on just how fast the temperatures warm up during
the day Tuesday.

Tuesday will seem quite balmy with temperatures rising into the
upper 30s to lower 50s. Southwest will be on the increase again
Tuesday and Tuesday night with sustain 10-20 mph and gust 25-30
mph. /Tobin

Wednesday through Saturday...The busiest travel day of the year
will be unseasonably warm across the region as gusty southwest
winds keep the atmosphere well mixed. Temperatures will be in the
40s with low 50s possible in the southern valleys. This will keep
any precipitation in liquid form except for the high peaks. Snow
levels will start to drop as winds shift to the west during the
evening hours then become northerly overnight. Medium range models
are in general agreement on shortwave energy riding along a rather
flat ridge with the main threat of precipitation across the
northern zones on Wednesday. By Thanksgiving Day the track of the
band of moisture sinks as far south as the Palouse per the 12Z GFS
while the ECMWF keeps it more to the north. The 12Z GFS also
brings colder temps farther south with the possibility of some
light snow for the I-90 corridor. As I type this, the 18Z run of
the GFS is coming in warmer so there is quite a bit of uncertainty
as to p-type. The general trend will be cooling temperatures in
northerly flow for Friday and Friday night, then a gradual warming
as winds again shift to the southwest ahead of the next warm front
that could affect the Inland Northwest over the weekend. Warm air
moving in over the colder air entrenched at the surface could mean
the possibility of some mixed precipitation. Models disagree on
the southerly extend of the cold air at the surface and also on
the timing of this feature so for now we will keep sleet/FZRA out
of the weather grids. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The focus for this afternoon and evening will be vort
max currently moving across the Cascades which will track along
the WA/OR border. This feature is bringing less wind than previous
thought and will incr cloud cover for most terminals. Areas of
rain will impact Pullman and Lewiston and a combination of upslope
winds and moistening boundary layer will promote an incr risk for
MVFR/IFR stratus overnight. A wetter system bring more wdsprd
precip Sunday with a strong possibility for several hours of snow
at Spokane, Coeur D Alene, Sandpoint, and potentially Pullman. The
precip is likely to bring regional ceiling and vis restrictions.
/sb



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        30  38  28  37  32  43 /  10  90  30  10  50  60
Coeur d`Alene  30  38  29  37  33  41 /  10 100  50  20  60  80
Pullman        33  40  32  40  35  46 /  20 100  50  10  60  70
Lewiston       37  45  33  45  38  50 /  60  60  50  10  60  60
Colville       24  37  23  37  30  39 /  10  80  30  20  60  60
Sandpoint      30  36  29  37  31  39 /  20 100  50  30  70  80
Kellogg        32  35  31  35  32  38 /  50 100  70  20  70  90
Moses Lake     28  43  28  41  33  48 /  10  20  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      33  42  32  41  35  46 /  10  40  10  10  20  30
Omak           27  37  26  37  30  41 /  10  50  10  20  30  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 221808
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1008 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be windy over most of the Inland Northwest. Snow
showers will persist over the Cascades and mountains of the Idaho
Panhandle. Another round of rain and wet snow is expected on
Sunday. The mountains will receive another round of heavy snow
Monday night into Tuesday. A break in the active weather pattern
will be possible Wednesday through Friday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: We have downgraded the winter storm warning for
the Central Idaho Panhandle Mtns to a winter weather advisory.
Drier air aloft has temporarily moved into the region and any
snow shower activity this afternoon will be light and not amount
to much.

This will change this evening as a second wave comes through the
region...re-moistening the dendritic layer...and increasing lift.
This wave is currently moving into Wrn MT and clouds are already
thickening east of the Cascades...a sign of the lift. Look for
light precipitation to accompany this wave across the lower Basin
this afternoon then into the lower ID panhandle this evening. This
will bring an additional 1-2 inches of snowfall into the Central
Panhandle Mtns with the biggest uncertainty whether it will remain
just over southern Shoshone County (south of I-90) or expand
northward toward the interstate. Several inches of snow will also
fall in the Blue Mtns and Camas Prairie mainly at or above 4000`.

Further west, we will see very little break in snow shower
activity along the Cascade Crest which at times will slop over
into Central and perhaps eastern Chelan County, especially where
narrow convergent bands setup.

Winds are having a hard time mixing down the surface in the
immediate lee of the Cascades so did adjust temperatures down some
for locations like Omak and Oroville.

A wetter storm system will bring more widespread precipitation
Sunday. This will lead to more wintry travel across the ID/MT
passes along with more localized wintry travel through the Cascade
Passes. More details to follow this afternoon. /sb




&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The focus for this afternoon and evening will be vort
max currently moving across the Cascades which will track along
the WA/OR border. This feature is bringing less wind than previous
thought and will incr cloud cover for most terminals. Areas of
rain will impact Pullman and Lewiston and a combination of upslope
winds and moistening boundary layer will promote an incr risk for
MVFR/IFR stratus overnight. A wetter system bring more wdsprd
precip Sunday with a strong possibility for several hours of snow
at Spokane, Coeur D Alene, Sandpoint, and potentially Pullman. The
precip is likely to bring regional ceiling and vis restrictions.
/sb


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  30  38  29  37  30 /  10  10  70  30  10  40
Coeur d`Alene  42  30  38  29  37  31 /  20  20  80  50  20  50
Pullman        45  33  40  32  40  33 /  20  50  80  50  10  30
Lewiston       50  36  45  33  44  36 /  40  40  50  50  10  20
Colville       41  24  37  24  37  28 /  10  10  70  30  20  60
Sandpoint      40  29  36  29  37  30 /  20  20  90  50  30  70
Kellogg        41  31  35  31  35  30 /  20  60 100  70  30  60
Moses Lake     45  29  43  30  42  31 /  20  10  30  10  10  20
Wenatchee      45  32  42  32  42  33 /  10  10  30  10  10  20
Omak           38  27  37  26  37  28 /  10  10  40  10  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 221808
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1008 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be windy over most of the Inland Northwest. Snow
showers will persist over the Cascades and mountains of the Idaho
Panhandle. Another round of rain and wet snow is expected on
Sunday. The mountains will receive another round of heavy snow
Monday night into Tuesday. A break in the active weather pattern
will be possible Wednesday through Friday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: We have downgraded the winter storm warning for
the Central Idaho Panhandle Mtns to a winter weather advisory.
Drier air aloft has temporarily moved into the region and any
snow shower activity this afternoon will be light and not amount
to much.

This will change this evening as a second wave comes through the
region...re-moistening the dendritic layer...and increasing lift.
This wave is currently moving into Wrn MT and clouds are already
thickening east of the Cascades...a sign of the lift. Look for
light precipitation to accompany this wave across the lower Basin
this afternoon then into the lower ID panhandle this evening. This
will bring an additional 1-2 inches of snowfall into the Central
Panhandle Mtns with the biggest uncertainty whether it will remain
just over southern Shoshone County (south of I-90) or expand
northward toward the interstate. Several inches of snow will also
fall in the Blue Mtns and Camas Prairie mainly at or above 4000`.

Further west, we will see very little break in snow shower
activity along the Cascade Crest which at times will slop over
into Central and perhaps eastern Chelan County, especially where
narrow convergent bands setup.

Winds are having a hard time mixing down the surface in the
immediate lee of the Cascades so did adjust temperatures down some
for locations like Omak and Oroville.

A wetter storm system will bring more widespread precipitation
Sunday. This will lead to more wintry travel across the ID/MT
passes along with more localized wintry travel through the Cascade
Passes. More details to follow this afternoon. /sb




&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The focus for this afternoon and evening will be vort
max currently moving across the Cascades which will track along
the WA/OR border. This feature is bringing less wind than previous
thought and will incr cloud cover for most terminals. Areas of
rain will impact Pullman and Lewiston and a combination of upslope
winds and moistening boundary layer will promote an incr risk for
MVFR/IFR stratus overnight. A wetter system bring more wdsprd
precip Sunday with a strong possibility for several hours of snow
at Spokane, Coeur D Alene, Sandpoint, and potentially Pullman. The
precip is likely to bring regional ceiling and vis restrictions.
/sb


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  30  38  29  37  30 /  10  10  70  30  10  40
Coeur d`Alene  42  30  38  29  37  31 /  20  20  80  50  20  50
Pullman        45  33  40  32  40  33 /  20  50  80  50  10  30
Lewiston       50  36  45  33  44  36 /  40  40  50  50  10  20
Colville       41  24  37  24  37  28 /  10  10  70  30  20  60
Sandpoint      40  29  36  29  37  30 /  20  20  90  50  30  70
Kellogg        41  31  35  31  35  30 /  20  60 100  70  30  60
Moses Lake     45  29  43  30  42  31 /  20  10  30  10  10  20
Wenatchee      45  32  42  32  42  33 /  10  10  30  10  10  20
Omak           38  27  37  26  37  28 /  10  10  40  10  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 221808
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1008 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be windy over most of the Inland Northwest. Snow
showers will persist over the Cascades and mountains of the Idaho
Panhandle. Another round of rain and wet snow is expected on
Sunday. The mountains will receive another round of heavy snow
Monday night into Tuesday. A break in the active weather pattern
will be possible Wednesday through Friday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: We have downgraded the winter storm warning for
the Central Idaho Panhandle Mtns to a winter weather advisory.
Drier air aloft has temporarily moved into the region and any
snow shower activity this afternoon will be light and not amount
to much.

This will change this evening as a second wave comes through the
region...re-moistening the dendritic layer...and increasing lift.
This wave is currently moving into Wrn MT and clouds are already
thickening east of the Cascades...a sign of the lift. Look for
light precipitation to accompany this wave across the lower Basin
this afternoon then into the lower ID panhandle this evening. This
will bring an additional 1-2 inches of snowfall into the Central
Panhandle Mtns with the biggest uncertainty whether it will remain
just over southern Shoshone County (south of I-90) or expand
northward toward the interstate. Several inches of snow will also
fall in the Blue Mtns and Camas Prairie mainly at or above 4000`.

Further west, we will see very little break in snow shower
activity along the Cascade Crest which at times will slop over
into Central and perhaps eastern Chelan County, especially where
narrow convergent bands setup.

Winds are having a hard time mixing down the surface in the
immediate lee of the Cascades so did adjust temperatures down some
for locations like Omak and Oroville.

A wetter storm system will bring more widespread precipitation
Sunday. This will lead to more wintry travel across the ID/MT
passes along with more localized wintry travel through the Cascade
Passes. More details to follow this afternoon. /sb




&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The focus for this afternoon and evening will be vort
max currently moving across the Cascades which will track along
the WA/OR border. This feature is bringing less wind than previous
thought and will incr cloud cover for most terminals. Areas of
rain will impact Pullman and Lewiston and a combination of upslope
winds and moistening boundary layer will promote an incr risk for
MVFR/IFR stratus overnight. A wetter system bring more wdsprd
precip Sunday with a strong possibility for several hours of snow
at Spokane, Coeur D Alene, Sandpoint, and potentially Pullman. The
precip is likely to bring regional ceiling and vis restrictions.
/sb


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  30  38  29  37  30 /  10  10  70  30  10  40
Coeur d`Alene  42  30  38  29  37  31 /  20  20  80  50  20  50
Pullman        45  33  40  32  40  33 /  20  50  80  50  10  30
Lewiston       50  36  45  33  44  36 /  40  40  50  50  10  20
Colville       41  24  37  24  37  28 /  10  10  70  30  20  60
Sandpoint      40  29  36  29  37  30 /  20  20  90  50  30  70
Kellogg        41  31  35  31  35  30 /  20  60 100  70  30  60
Moses Lake     45  29  43  30  42  31 /  20  10  30  10  10  20
Wenatchee      45  32  42  32  42  33 /  10  10  30  10  10  20
Omak           38  27  37  26  37  28 /  10  10  40  10  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 221808
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1008 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be windy over most of the Inland Northwest. Snow
showers will persist over the Cascades and mountains of the Idaho
Panhandle. Another round of rain and wet snow is expected on
Sunday. The mountains will receive another round of heavy snow
Monday night into Tuesday. A break in the active weather pattern
will be possible Wednesday through Friday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: We have downgraded the winter storm warning for
the Central Idaho Panhandle Mtns to a winter weather advisory.
Drier air aloft has temporarily moved into the region and any
snow shower activity this afternoon will be light and not amount
to much.

This will change this evening as a second wave comes through the
region...re-moistening the dendritic layer...and increasing lift.
This wave is currently moving into Wrn MT and clouds are already
thickening east of the Cascades...a sign of the lift. Look for
light precipitation to accompany this wave across the lower Basin
this afternoon then into the lower ID panhandle this evening. This
will bring an additional 1-2 inches of snowfall into the Central
Panhandle Mtns with the biggest uncertainty whether it will remain
just over southern Shoshone County (south of I-90) or expand
northward toward the interstate. Several inches of snow will also
fall in the Blue Mtns and Camas Prairie mainly at or above 4000`.

Further west, we will see very little break in snow shower
activity along the Cascade Crest which at times will slop over
into Central and perhaps eastern Chelan County, especially where
narrow convergent bands setup.

Winds are having a hard time mixing down the surface in the
immediate lee of the Cascades so did adjust temperatures down some
for locations like Omak and Oroville.

A wetter storm system will bring more widespread precipitation
Sunday. This will lead to more wintry travel across the ID/MT
passes along with more localized wintry travel through the Cascade
Passes. More details to follow this afternoon. /sb




&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The focus for this afternoon and evening will be vort
max currently moving across the Cascades which will track along
the WA/OR border. This feature is bringing less wind than previous
thought and will incr cloud cover for most terminals. Areas of
rain will impact Pullman and Lewiston and a combination of upslope
winds and moistening boundary layer will promote an incr risk for
MVFR/IFR stratus overnight. A wetter system bring more wdsprd
precip Sunday with a strong possibility for several hours of snow
at Spokane, Coeur D Alene, Sandpoint, and potentially Pullman. The
precip is likely to bring regional ceiling and vis restrictions.
/sb


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  30  38  29  37  30 /  10  10  70  30  10  40
Coeur d`Alene  42  30  38  29  37  31 /  20  20  80  50  20  50
Pullman        45  33  40  32  40  33 /  20  50  80  50  10  30
Lewiston       50  36  45  33  44  36 /  40  40  50  50  10  20
Colville       41  24  37  24  37  28 /  10  10  70  30  20  60
Sandpoint      40  29  36  29  37  30 /  20  20  90  50  30  70
Kellogg        41  31  35  31  35  30 /  20  60 100  70  30  60
Moses Lake     45  29  43  30  42  31 /  20  10  30  10  10  20
Wenatchee      45  32  42  32  42  33 /  10  10  30  10  10  20
Omak           38  27  37  26  37  28 /  10  10  40  10  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

WA...None.
&&

$$





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