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000
FXUS66 KPQR 241656
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
955 AM PDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT HAD MOVED INTO THE CASCADES THIS MORNING AND
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES LATER THIS MORNING. A BROAD AND COOL
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST AND SPREAD SHOWERS ONSHORE
AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE
AND THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON FRIDAY FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...THEN EAST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR DECREASING SHOWERS. THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE WET WEATHER SATURDAY. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY ON THE COAST WITH RAIN SPREADING INLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG COLD FRONT/SQUALL LINE MOVED THROUGH THE
PORTLAND METRO AREA DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE TODAY...AND WAS NOW IN
THE CASCADES...AND WILL BE EAST OF THE CASCADE BY AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS HAVE RISEN WELL ABOVE THE PASSES. THE RAIN WAS HEAVY
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME 24 HOUR AMOUNTS ABOVE 3
INCHES IN OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. DID BRIEFLY HIT FLOOD STAGE AT THE
GRAYS RIVER AT ROSBURG IN WAHKIAKUM COUNTY. NO OTHER RIVERS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE. A COOL BROAD UPPER LOW OR TROUGH WAS
OFF THE COAST AND WILL SPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR AREA AT TIMES TODAY
AND TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP BACK DOWN TO NEAR OR BELOW THE
PASSES LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE BELOW THE
PASSES ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LACK OF ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS BELOW SNOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT TODAY...WE WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME HEAVIER
SHOWERS DEVELOP AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SOME SMALL
HAIL POSSIBLE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND WITH THE MAIN COLD POOL ALOFT
REMAINING OFFSHORE...THE CHANCE OF THUNDER IS SMALL TODAY.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH/LOW COMES ONSHORE FRIDAY WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD POOL ALOFT...TEMPS AT 500 MB BETWEEN MINUS 30 AND MINUS 32
DEGREES C. THIS SHOULD GIVE A DECENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING SHOWERS
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONT COMES IN LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE SAT
NIGHT AND EARLY SUN. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH A TRANSITION TO SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY BEHIND
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRUSH THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON MON...BUT THE TREND WILL BE
TOWARD DRIER WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PAC NW.
RIGHT NOW...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT TUE WILL BE WARM AND DRY
WITH THE RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...AND HIGH TEMPS WERE RAISED
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE. MODEL UNCERTAINTY
BEGINS TO INCREASE WED...AS THE 12Z GFS AND SOME OF ITS ENSEMBLES
INDICATE THAT A TROF OVER THE NE PAC WILL SPLIT...WITH THE NORTHERN
ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW WED AS AN OPEN TROF. THE 12Z ECMWF
MAINTAINS A NE PAC CLOSED LOW THAT HARDLY MOVES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...ALLOWING RIDGING TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE PAC NW FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ON WED DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY. PYLE
&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT PUSHING UP AND OVER THE CASCADES AS OF 8 AM.
WORST CONDITIONS OVER THE CASCADES THROUGH 17Z WHERE MTNS WILL BE
OBSCURED IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP...ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO.
UNSETTLED AIR MASS OVER THE PAC WILL SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. OVERALL...MOSTLY VFR WITH POCKETS OF MVFR UNDER THE SHOWERS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL BRIEF MVFR CIGS
DUE TO SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING AFTER 18Z. NOT MUCH CHANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT. ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...MUCH MORE QUIET THIS AM. 996 MB LOW OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND
THIS AM WILL WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES FURTHER INTO CENTRAL BRITISH
COLUMBIA TODAY. STILL HAVE ENOUGH PRES GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW TO POP
FREQUENT GUSTS 20 TO 30 KT...MAINLY N OF CASCADE HEAD TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE WILL HAVE SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR/UNDER
THOSE SHOWERS.

SEAS RUNNING 10 TO 12 FT TODAY...BUT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH FRI.
HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE OVER THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW 10
FT OVER MOST ALL AREAS EARLY FRI AM.

NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE SAT...WITH S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT AND SEAS
BUILDING BACK INTO THE LOWER TEENS. ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING ON ALL
 COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TODAY THROUGH FRI
 ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
 TODAY...AND AGAIN 12 AM TO 5 AM FRI.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 241656
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
955 AM PDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT HAD MOVED INTO THE CASCADES THIS MORNING AND
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES LATER THIS MORNING. A BROAD AND COOL
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST AND SPREAD SHOWERS ONSHORE
AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE
AND THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON FRIDAY FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...THEN EAST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR DECREASING SHOWERS. THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE WET WEATHER SATURDAY. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY ON THE COAST WITH RAIN SPREADING INLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG COLD FRONT/SQUALL LINE MOVED THROUGH THE
PORTLAND METRO AREA DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE TODAY...AND WAS NOW IN
THE CASCADES...AND WILL BE EAST OF THE CASCADE BY AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS HAVE RISEN WELL ABOVE THE PASSES. THE RAIN WAS HEAVY
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME 24 HOUR AMOUNTS ABOVE 3
INCHES IN OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. DID BRIEFLY HIT FLOOD STAGE AT THE
GRAYS RIVER AT ROSBURG IN WAHKIAKUM COUNTY. NO OTHER RIVERS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE. A COOL BROAD UPPER LOW OR TROUGH WAS
OFF THE COAST AND WILL SPREAD SHOWERS INTO OUR AREA AT TIMES TODAY
AND TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP BACK DOWN TO NEAR OR BELOW THE
PASSES LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE BELOW THE
PASSES ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LACK OF ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS BELOW SNOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT TODAY...WE WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME HEAVIER
SHOWERS DEVELOP AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SOME SMALL
HAIL POSSIBLE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND WITH THE MAIN COLD POOL ALOFT
REMAINING OFFSHORE...THE CHANCE OF THUNDER IS SMALL TODAY.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH/LOW COMES ONSHORE FRIDAY WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD POOL ALOFT...TEMPS AT 500 MB BETWEEN MINUS 30 AND MINUS 32
DEGREES C. THIS SHOULD GIVE A DECENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING SHOWERS
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONT COMES IN LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE SAT
NIGHT AND EARLY SUN. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH A TRANSITION TO SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY BEHIND
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRUSH THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON MON...BUT THE TREND WILL BE
TOWARD DRIER WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PAC NW.
RIGHT NOW...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT TUE WILL BE WARM AND DRY
WITH THE RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...AND HIGH TEMPS WERE RAISED
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE. MODEL UNCERTAINTY
BEGINS TO INCREASE WED...AS THE 12Z GFS AND SOME OF ITS ENSEMBLES
INDICATE THAT A TROF OVER THE NE PAC WILL SPLIT...WITH THE NORTHERN
ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW WED AS AN OPEN TROF. THE 12Z ECMWF
MAINTAINS A NE PAC CLOSED LOW THAT HARDLY MOVES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...ALLOWING RIDGING TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE PAC NW FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ON WED DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY. PYLE
&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT PUSHING UP AND OVER THE CASCADES AS OF 8 AM.
WORST CONDITIONS OVER THE CASCADES THROUGH 17Z WHERE MTNS WILL BE
OBSCURED IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP...ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO.
UNSETTLED AIR MASS OVER THE PAC WILL SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. OVERALL...MOSTLY VFR WITH POCKETS OF MVFR UNDER THE SHOWERS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL BRIEF MVFR CIGS
DUE TO SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING AFTER 18Z. NOT MUCH CHANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT. ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...MUCH MORE QUIET THIS AM. 996 MB LOW OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND
THIS AM WILL WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES FURTHER INTO CENTRAL BRITISH
COLUMBIA TODAY. STILL HAVE ENOUGH PRES GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW TO POP
FREQUENT GUSTS 20 TO 30 KT...MAINLY N OF CASCADE HEAD TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE WILL HAVE SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR/UNDER
THOSE SHOWERS.

SEAS RUNNING 10 TO 12 FT TODAY...BUT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH FRI.
HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE OVER THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW 10
FT OVER MOST ALL AREAS EARLY FRI AM.

NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE SAT...WITH S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT AND SEAS
BUILDING BACK INTO THE LOWER TEENS. ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING ON ALL
 COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TODAY THROUGH FRI
 ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
 TODAY...AND AGAIN 12 AM TO 5 AM FRI.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSEW 241617
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
918 AM PDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MORE
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL MOVE INLAND ON FRIDAY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED
RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS INLAND
TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SEATTLE TO
BELLINGHAM THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE MID 50S TODAY WITH A FEW SUNBREAKS. SHOWERS WILL TAPER DOWN
TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY KEEPING THE AIR MASS
COOL AND UNSTABLE. EXPECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING.

SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY...THEN WET WEATHER WILL RETURN SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THE GFS SHOWS THE FRONT ALONG
THE COAST BY 06Z...WITH PRECIP SPREADING INLAND OVERNIGHT. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
EARLY ON WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
WEAK TROUGHINESS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY KEEPING SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. MODELS SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE ON MONDAY WITH THE GFS
BUILDING A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA WITH A DRYING TREND. THE ECMWF
ALSO SHOWS SOME RIDGE BUT BRINGS A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA LATER IN
THE DAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE CANADIAN MODEL ALSO HAS A WARM FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN FORECAST FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA AND LOW
LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS ON TUESDAY
IN THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE MODELS DISAGREE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN CONTINUING TO BUILD THE RIDGE OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WHILE THE GFS SHIFTS
THE RIDGE TO THE EAST WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING ONSHORE DURING
THE DAY. WITH THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY HAVE STAYED WITH THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE FORECAST OF ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. IF THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE RIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER TO MID
70S ON WEDNESDAY. FELTON

&&

.CLIMATE...AS OF 6 AM THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION SINCE FEBRUARY 1ST AT
SEATTLE-TACOMA AIRPORT IS 19.04 INCHES. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD FOR
THE WETTEST FEBRUARY...MARCH AND APRIL (FEBRUARY 1ST THROUGH APRIL
30TH) IN SEATTLE. THE OLD RECORD WAS 18.97 INCHES SET BACK IN 1972.
THIS RECORD INCLUDES THE FEDERAL BUILDING RECORDS WHICH GO BACK TO
1891. RECORDS STARTED AT SEA-TAC IN 1945. FELTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING REMAINS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE EXCEPTION REMAINS THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST
OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE NEAR OSO WHERE A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THIS RIVER AS A
RESULT OF WATER POOLED BEHIND THE DEBRIS DAM THAT PARTIALLY BLOCKS
THE RIVER.

AT 9 AM...THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH NEAR ARLINGTON WAS
AT 5.6 FT...OR 4470 CFS. THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER
NEAR OSO WAS AT 217.4 FT AT 2750 CFS. THE POOL EAST OF THE SLIDE WAS
281.9 FT EARLY THIS MORNING.

STEADY RAIN HAS ENDED BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS TODAY. THE
LATEST HYDROGRAPH SHOWS THE STILLAGUAMISH NEAR ARLINGTON CRESTING
CLOSE TO 6.5 FEET EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVALANCHE...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FURTHER HEAVY SNOW AND THEN
POTENTIAL RAIN SHOULD BE SEEN IN THE MT RAINIER TO MT HOOD AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS IS VERY LIKELY TO CAUSE WET LOOSE...STORM SLAB AND
WIND SLAB AVALANCHE CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA. AN AVALANCHE WARNING
CONTINUES FOR THE MT RAINIER TO MT HOOD AREA THIS MORNING. BACK
COUNTRY TRAVEL IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN IS THIS AREA IS NOT RECOMMENDED
THIS MORNING.

SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND AVALANCHE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN OTHER
AREAS BUT THAT ARE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN WARNING CRITERIA. AVALANCHES
ARE ALSO LIKELY IN THESE OTHER AREAS AS WELL.

PLEASE VISIT NWAC.US FOR DETAILS. GKF

&&

.AVIATION...FLOW ALOFT IS SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A MOIST AND SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT. RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. THIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SOME FILLING IN OF OPEN AREAS BY
AFTERNOON THEN SOME CLEARING THIS EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
TODAY WILL EASE TONIGHT.

CEILINGS ARE MOSTLY VFR BUT MVFR 2-3K FT CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KSEA...CURRENTLY IN AN OPEN AREA. MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS WITH A CHANCE
OF A DROP TO MVFR BRIEFLY. THE AFTERNOON IS LIKELY TO BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS A CUMULUS FIELD FORMS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND 10G20KT EASING
TONIGHT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE EASED ON THE COAST AND GALE WARNINGS THERE HAVE
BEEN CHANGED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WIND 15-30 KT. ELSEWHERE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
15-30 KT CONTINUE. WINDS WILL EASE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT.

AFTER A LULL IN THE ACTION FRIDAY...ANOTHER FRONT WILL SPREAD SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
     STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION PLEASE SEE
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML   (ALL LOWERCASE)






000
FXUS66 KSEW 241316 AAA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
615 AM PDT THU APR 24 2014...ADDED CLIMATE DATA

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WARM FRONT EAST OF THE AREA
WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN WASHINGTON
INTERIOR AT 10Z. TEMPERATURES WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER ARE IN A
NARROW RANGE...MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AT 3 AM.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CASCADES EARLY THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF
POST FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY EVIDENT ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS
THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE CASCADES THE KOLM-KBLI GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY. WITH A LACK OF WESTERLIES THROUGH THE STRAIT THIS
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY...15 TO 25 MPH...WINDS IN THE INTERIOR TODAY.
SHOWER ACTIVITY DECREASING SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. GFS MOS HAS 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SEATTLE. BUFR SOUNDING INDICATE
LIFTED INDEXES ABOVE ZERO...AROUND PLUS 2...THIS AFTERNOON WITH VERY
LITTLE CAPE OF SHEAR. THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER
50S SO A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT BUT FOR NOW THE
CHANCES TO NOT LOOK HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. AIR MASS
OVER THE AREA REMAINING COOL WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 0C
KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS BELOW NORMAL TODAY...IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVERNIGHT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUING. AIR MASS REMAINING SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THE COOL AIR MASS REMAINING OVERHEAD LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE COLDER LOCATIONS WILL GET DOWN INTO THE MID 30S.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WILL BE
COMMON.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INLAND OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON FRIDAY. JET
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON SO IT WILL TAKE SOME DAY
TIME HEATING TO INCREASE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT STILL COOL WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES STILL
AROUND 0C MAKING FOR ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
...LOWER TO MID 50S.

TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY DRYING UP OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. JET WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH BECOMING SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS
WILL SLOW THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH DOWN SO HAVE LEFT SOME
LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE TROUGH
AXIS HANGING UP OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IN
STORE...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH NO MODERATION OF THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

SOME INCONSISTENCIES IN THE TIMING OF THE NEXT ORGANIZED FRONT TO
REACH THE AREA. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE THE FASTER
SOLUTIONS...WITH RAIN FROM ABOUT PUGET SOUND WESTWARD SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS SLOWER KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE
UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS ZONAL
ON SATURDAY WHICH FAVORS THE FASTER SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON WITH THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK TROUGHINESS
OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY KEEPING SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. MODELS
SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE ON MONDAY WITH THE GFS BUILDING A WEAK
RIDGE OVER THE AREA WITH A DRYING TREND. THE ECMWF ALSO SHOWS SOME
RIDGE BUT BRINGS A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THE CANADIAN MODEL ALSO HAS A WARM FRONT MOVING INTO
THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TUESDAY WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 60S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE MODELS DISAGREE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN CONTINUING TO BUILD THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WHILE THE GFS SHIFTS THE
RIDGE TO THE EAST WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING ONSHORE DURING THE
DAY. WITH THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY HAVE STAYED WITH THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE FORECAST OF ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. IF THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE RIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER TO MID
70S ON WEDNESDAY. FELTON

&&

.CLIMATE...AS OF 6 AM THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION SINCE FEBRUARY 1ST AT
SEATTLE-TACOMA AIRPORT IS 19.04 INCHES. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD FOR
THE WETTEST FEBRUARY...MARCH AND APRIL (FEBRUARY 1ST THROUGH APRIL
30TH) IN SEATTLE. THE OLD RECORD WAS 18.97 INCHES SET BACK IN 1972.
THIS RECORD INCLUDES THE FEDERAL BUILDING RECORDS WHICH GO BACK TO
1891. RECORDS STARTED AT SEA-TAC IN 1945. FELTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING REMAINS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE EXCEPTION REMAINS THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST
OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE NEAR OSO WHERE A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THIS RIVER AS A
RESULT OF WATER POOLED BEHIND THE DEBRIS DAM THAT PARTIALLY BLOCKS
THE RIVER.

AT 315 AM...THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH NEAR ARLINGTON WAS
AT 4.6 FT...OR 2820 CFS. THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER
NEAR OSO WAS AT 216.4 FT AT 1800 CFS. THE POOL EAST OF THE SLIDE WAS
282.0 FT.

WITH THE STEADY RAIN COMING TO AN END OVER THE SLIDE AREA JUST SOME
SLIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH THE RIVER REMAINING
STEADY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LATEST HYDROGRAPH SHOWS THE
STILLAGUAMISH NEAR ARLINGTON CRESTING BELOW 5 FEET. FELTON

&&

.AVALANCHE...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FURTHER HEAVY SNOW AND THEN
POTENTIAL RAIN SHOULD BE SEEN IN THE MT RAINIER TO MT HOOD AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS IS VERY LIKELY TO CAUSE WET LOOSE...STORM SLAB AND
WIND SLAB AVALANCHE CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA. AN AVALANCHE WARNING
CONTINUES FOR THE MT RAINIER TO MT HOOD AREA THIS MORNING. BACK
COUNTRY TRAVEL IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN IS THIS AREA IS NOT RECOMMENDED
THIS MORNING.

SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND AVALANCHE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN OTHER
AREAS BUT THAT ARE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN WARNING CRITERIA. AVALANCHES
ARE ALSO LIKELY IN THESE OTHER AREAS AS WELL.

PLEASE VISIT NWAC.US FOR DETAILS. GKF

&&

.AVIATION...FLOW ALOFT IS SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A MOIST AND STABLE AIR
MASS BECOMING SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE LATER THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH PUGET SOUND AT 09Z WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT AROUND 15Z. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH MVFR CEILINGS WILL TURN
TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN
CEILINGS TOWARD AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT.

KSEA...MVFR CEILINGS 2-3K FT AT TIMES IN RAIN THIS MORNING. RAIN
TURNING TO SHOWERS AFTER 15Z WITH CEILINGS MOSTLY VFR THIS
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT NEAR SHOWERS. SOUTHEAST WIND 7 TO 12
KNOTS...BECOMING S-SW 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 15Z AND REMAINING GUSTY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE INLAND
WATERS AT 09Z WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW LATER THIS MORNING. GALE
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALL OTHER WATERS. STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL
FOLLOW A SURFACE LOW AS IT LIFTS INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME GUSTY SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
INLAND WATERS MUCH OF TODAY. WINDS COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH GALE FORCE
IN PARTS OF PUGET SOUND LATER THIS MORNING.

AFTER A LULL IN THE ACTION FRIDAY...ANOTHER FRONT WILL SPREAD SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. 27

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
     STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE.

PZ...GALE WARNING COAST.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL OTHER WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION PLEASE SEE
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML   (ALL LOWERCASE)












  [top]

000
FXUS66 KOTX 241149
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
448 AM PDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Occasional precipitation chances, breezy conditions and relatively
cool temperatures dominate the weather pattern. The next organized
storm system will bring periods of rain Thursday morning,
followed by a threat of scattered showers and thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon. Showers will remain a threat into the weekend,
before a relative lull comes for the start of the new work week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

Today and tonight: The Inland NW transitions from a stratiform
to a convective precipitation regime, before the threat of showers
wanes after dark. A warm front and its stable precipitation will
continue to shift into northeast WA and the ID Panhandle this
morning. Yet an occluding cold front and accompanying mid-level
shortwave will be coming east of the Cascades between 15-18Z (8-11
AM), before advancing east-northeast into north ID between 18-00Z
(11 AM-5 PM) and eventually out through MT tonight. This will keep
the precipitation threat high over the eastern third of WA and
north ID through the day, before starting to dissipate after about
00-03Z (5-8 PM). Precipitation turns more showery over central WA
westward to the Cascades before dying out with the loss of daytime
heating. Overall for this morning models place the higher
precipitation amounts across the eastern third of WA and the ID
Panhandle. By afternoon models place the higher QPF amounts over
northeast WA and north ID Panhandle, along and north of a line
from Davenport to Kellogg. However all areas will have a risk for
periods of locally heavy rain with instability and a thunderstorm
threat.

So yes, in addition to the generalized precipitation threat, there
will be potential for thunderstorms and some of these may be
strong. From near midday through early evening models show
convective instability blossoming. A swath of 200-500 J/kg of
CAPE and LIs between -1 and -3C across the Upper Columbia Basin
around 18Z (11AM) shift toward the eastern third of WA and north
ID between 21-00Z (2-5PM). A potential limiting factor in the
coverage and strength of storms will 0-6KM Bulk Shear. This is
favorable early today, with values between 25-40kts. However
toward midday this more favorable shear shifts south, mainly
impacting far southeast WA and the central Panhandle. Still this
is enough to be concerned that more organized storms are
possible, especially in this area. With a LLJ around 25-35kts
feeding into southeast WA and the central Panhandle and the
aforementioned instability, any organized storms will be capable
of strong winds, some hail and heavy downpours. With all these
factors I increased the thunderstorm chances from slight to chance
this afternoon across east-central and southeast WA and the
central and southern Panhandle. The best threat appears between
21-00Z (2 to 5 pm).

Snow levels will linger near about 4000 feet over the Cascade
crest, meaning some light snow accumulations in places such as
Stevens Pass. Snow levels near 4500-5000 feet will be common
elsewhere, meaning some snow once again over Sherman Pass and
across Lookout Pass into Montana.

Aside from the precipitation threat, the passing front will
increase the pressure gradient and mixing, leading to breezy and
locally gusty winds. Temperatures are expected to be near or
slightly below average. /J. Cote`

Friday through Sunday...The weather over the Inland NW will
continue to be subject to the whims of a deep upper level trough
which is expected to hang around through the weekend. Despite its
presence...the weather isn`t expected to be as wet as what we will
experience today and tonight as there are no signs of a sub-
tropical moisture intrusion.

For Thursday night and Friday the models are in good agreement
that the 500 mb trough axis will shift onto the coast which
should transition the mid-level flow to a southerly orientation.
Just how much precipitation this will result in isn`t
certain...but there quite a bit of model consensus that much of
the region will be dry...at least through the late morning hours.
The exception could be over the SE corner of WA and the adjacent
portions of the Idaho Panhandle. This is the location where
moisture from todays system could remain fixed as the negatively
tilted shortwave pushes through to the northeast. Whether it
remains fixed there or farther south through Friday morning isn`t
certain but there is a good chance that it will work its way back
to the north during the afternoon as the mid-level flow backs
toward the south. This will spread a high threat of stratiform
precipitation across the Idaho Panhandle south of I90 with a
lesser chance north. Across the remainder of the forecast area we
will likely see diurnal heating lead to convection as lapse rates
fall in advance of the 500 mb cold pool. Unstable conditions are
not expected to be deep enough to trigger thunderstorms...but some
could near the Cascades as 500 mb temps drop to near -30c late in
the day.

For Friday night and into early Saturday trof and 500 mb cold
pool will shear apart as the longwave pattern is undercut by a
strong upper level jet cutting through the desert SW. This will
still leave the stratiform rain shield fixed over the Idaho
Panhandle and the western portions of Montana. The chances for
measurable precipitation will decrease steadily from east to west
across the eastern half of Washington. By afternoon the approach
of a minor shortwave trough from the southwest could wrap some of
the Idaho moisture into the NE corner of Washington. Precipitation
totals from Friday night into Saturday could be appreciable over
portions of the Panhandle with readings nearing a half inch or
slightly more over SW facing slopes. Snow levels will generally be
above 4500 feet...so Mullan Pass could see some appreciable snow.

For Sunday the base of the trough is expected to retreat to the
north and it will gradually be undercut by moist west-southwest
flow. This will result in an increasing precipitation threat
beginning Sunday morning over SC Washington and gradually
spreading northeast across the remainder of the region during the
afternoon and evening. This could be the last batch of widespread
precipitation as the extended models are all hinting at an
amplifying ridge beginning to develop by Monday and persisting
into Tuesday and beyond. fx

Tuesday Night through Thursday: Models have come into better
agreement concerning the middle of next week placing the Inland NW
in a dry ridge pattern. By Tuesday night the ridge looks to be
firmly in place pushing the storm track to our north and leaving
our region in a stable, dry pattern. With the ridge overhead we
can expect clearing skies, warming temps and light winds. The
biggest question of this time frame currently is how high the
temperatures get throughout the daytime. Right now the models
have pegged next Thursday as the warmest day, but disagree on how
warm. With the strength of the ridge, the region will likely
approach the warmest temps we have seen so far this year. An easy
way to sum up this period would be...very pleasant. /Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: An occluding frontal wave pushing into the region will
bring rain, transiting to showers after 15-18Z, with a potential
for thunderstorms starting toward midday to early afternoon,
before the shower threat wanes after 00-03Z. Lcl MVFR/IFR cigs/vis
are possible in the heavier rains earlier today, before 15-17Z.
Thunderstorms be possible from about 18-03Z across much of eastern
WA and north ID, but the best threat at this time appears will be
over southeast WA to the central ID panhandle between 20-00Z. This
includes potentially near MWH, GEG to COE, and PUW/LWS. Some
stronger storms are possible with gusty winds, small hail and
heavier rain. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        56  36  54  37  55  36 / 100  60  30  30  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  53  35  54  37  54  34 / 100  70  40  40  40  20
Pullman        55  37  51  37  53  35 / 100  50  50  50  20  20
Lewiston       61  43  55  42  58  40 / 100  50  60  50  10  20
Colville       59  33  60  36  61  34 / 100  20  40  20  50  40
Sandpoint      50  34  54  37  53  34 / 100  80  40  70  80  40
Kellogg        51  34  52  36  49  34 / 100  70  60  80  70  30
Moses Lake     64  38  61  38  63  40 /  70  10  20  10   0  30
Wenatchee      62  42  61  41  63  43 /  60  10  30  10   0  30
Omak           62  34  61  35  63  36 / 100  10  20  10   0  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 241102
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
355 AM PDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND THIS MORNING WITH RAIN
FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER TODAY BUT SHOWERS WILL
BE LIGHTER. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH AND COLD AIR WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
RESULT. THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER SATURDAY.
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY ON THE
COAST WITH RAIN SPREADING INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT NEAR THE NORTH OREGON COAST AT 3AM WILL
PUSH INLAND DURING THE MORNING WITH RAIN TURNING TO SHOWERS. QUITE A
BIT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOCATIONS IN
THE NORTH COAST RANGE AND THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES IN THE 1.5
TO 2.5 INCH RANGE. RIVERS DRAINING THE COAST RANGE AND THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES HAVE RESPONDED WITH SOME RAPID RISES. I EXPECT
THE COWLITZ RIVER TO RISE ABOVE BANKFULL AT KELSO THIS MORNING BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE GRAYS RIVER IN PACIFIC COUNTY
WILL RISE ABOVE BANKFULL AND COULD APPROACH FLOOD STAGE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT IS ALMOST THERE AT 345 AM AND
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY 5 AM WITH ALLOWING FOR A RECESSION
AROUND 8 AM JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS FREQUENT MID DAY TODAY. I AM GOING TO
CANCEL THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADES AS THE SNOW LEVEL IS
AROUND 5500 TO 6500 FEET AND ABOVE THE PASSES. TIMBERLINE AND HIGHER
SKI AREAS ARE THE ONLY PLACES LIKELY TO GET MUCH SNOW THIS MORNING.
THEN THE SNOW LEVEL WILL DROP AS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY SOME SNOW
WILL FALL IN THE CASCADES AND AT THE HIGHEST PASSES BUT AMOUNTS WILL
NOT WARRANT AN ADVISORY. SNOW LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TOMORROW
DROPPING BELOW THE PASSES LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MID LEVEL
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW SO SNOW AMOUNTS
AT THE PASSES WILL BE LIGHT.

THERE IS PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TODAY OR ENOUGH COLD
AIR ALOFT TO RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL HAIL IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER...BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE NAM AND
GFS BOTH INDICATE THE COLD POOL IS OVER NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND
EXTENDS SOUTH WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT EXTENDING INTO NW OREGON. AIR
MASS IS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE INLAND AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE SHOWERS
SHOULD TAPER OFF DRAMATICALLY AFTER SUNSET. I THINK WE SHOULD HAVE A
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF SATURDAY...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST
WHERE LIGHT RAIN MAY SPREAD IN BY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL SPREAD INLAND
FROM THE NEXT WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL TIMING IS PRETTY
CONSISTENT. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN.
KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. A
WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ON MON...BUT THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD DRIER WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PAC NW. RIGHT NOW...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH
THAT TUE WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH THE RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...AND
HIGH TEMPS WERE RAISED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO INCREASE WED...AS THE 12Z GFS AND SOME OF
ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A TROF OVER THE NE PAC WILL SPLIT...WITH
THE NORTHERN ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW WED AS AN OPEN TROF. THE
12Z ECMWF MAINTAINS A NE PAC CLOSED LOW THAT HARDLY MOVES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING RIDGING TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
PAC NW FOR SEVERAL DAYS. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ON WED DUE
TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. PYLE &&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ONSHORE SOON...THEN PUSH INLAND
TO THE CASCADES BY 13Z-15Z. IFR AND MVFR AT THE COAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR INLAND WITH MAIN PRECIP SHIELD
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GUSTY S-SSW WINDS EASE SOME AND
BECOME SW.

BEHIND THIS FRONT THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE IN
NATURE. STEADY RAIN WILL SWITCH TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
IMPROVED VSBYS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HEAVIER
SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL IN THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VIS THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT
TIMES... UP TO 25 KT WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND 13-14Z.
AFTER THAT WINDS TURN W-SW WITH IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS BUT
CONTINUED SHOWERS. EXPECT GENERAL VFR WITH SHOWERS TODAY...THOUGH
PERIODS OF MVFR ARE LIKELY AT TIMES. WEAGLE/KMD

&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL PUSH INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA TODAY AND WEAKEN. THIS LOW WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
ONSHORE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BEFORE SUNRISE...BRINGING GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO THE INNER WATERS. CONDITIONS HAVE EASED FARTHER OFFSHORE
AND DROPPED THE GALE THERE.

AS THE LOW TRACKS INLAND...BLUSTERY W-SW FLOW WILL DOMINATE
THURSDAY...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY EASING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THERE MAY BE A GUST TO 35 KT IN THE FAR NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS...MOST GUIDANCE SUGGEST SUB-GALES WILL DOMINATE TODAY. VERY
CHOPPY COMBINED SEAS 11-14 FT LIKELY THROUGH THU MORNING...BUT
THIS SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER THU/THU NIGHT. LIGHTER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FRI/EARLY SAT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLS OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS SLACKEN OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH SHOWERS MAY BRING SQUALLY WIND GUSTS ON FRI.

ANOTHER ORGANIZED FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES AGAIN
LATER SAT. KMD

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM

     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM PDT
THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 10 PM
THIS EVENING TO 5
     AM PDT FRIDAY.

&&


$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 241102
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
355 AM PDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND THIS MORNING WITH RAIN
FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER TODAY BUT SHOWERS WILL
BE LIGHTER. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH AND COLD AIR WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
RESULT. THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER SATURDAY.
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY ON THE
COAST WITH RAIN SPREADING INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT NEAR THE NORTH OREGON COAST AT 3AM WILL
PUSH INLAND DURING THE MORNING WITH RAIN TURNING TO SHOWERS. QUITE A
BIT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOCATIONS IN
THE NORTH COAST RANGE AND THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES IN THE 1.5
TO 2.5 INCH RANGE. RIVERS DRAINING THE COAST RANGE AND THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES HAVE RESPONDED WITH SOME RAPID RISES. I EXPECT
THE COWLITZ RIVER TO RISE ABOVE BANKFULL AT KELSO THIS MORNING BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE GRAYS RIVER IN PACIFIC COUNTY
WILL RISE ABOVE BANKFULL AND COULD APPROACH FLOOD STAGE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT IS ALMOST THERE AT 345 AM AND
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY 5 AM WITH ALLOWING FOR A RECESSION
AROUND 8 AM JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS FREQUENT MID DAY TODAY. I AM GOING TO
CANCEL THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADES AS THE SNOW LEVEL IS
AROUND 5500 TO 6500 FEET AND ABOVE THE PASSES. TIMBERLINE AND HIGHER
SKI AREAS ARE THE ONLY PLACES LIKELY TO GET MUCH SNOW THIS MORNING.
THEN THE SNOW LEVEL WILL DROP AS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY SOME SNOW
WILL FALL IN THE CASCADES AND AT THE HIGHEST PASSES BUT AMOUNTS WILL
NOT WARRANT AN ADVISORY. SNOW LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TOMORROW
DROPPING BELOW THE PASSES LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MID LEVEL
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW SO SNOW AMOUNTS
AT THE PASSES WILL BE LIGHT.

THERE IS PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TODAY OR ENOUGH COLD
AIR ALOFT TO RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL HAIL IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER...BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE NAM AND
GFS BOTH INDICATE THE COLD POOL IS OVER NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND
EXTENDS SOUTH WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT EXTENDING INTO NW OREGON. AIR
MASS IS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE INLAND AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE SHOWERS
SHOULD TAPER OFF DRAMATICALLY AFTER SUNSET. I THINK WE SHOULD HAVE A
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF SATURDAY...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST
WHERE LIGHT RAIN MAY SPREAD IN BY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL SPREAD INLAND
FROM THE NEXT WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL TIMING IS PRETTY
CONSISTENT. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN.
KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. A
WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ON MON...BUT THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD DRIER WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PAC NW. RIGHT NOW...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH
THAT TUE WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH THE RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...AND
HIGH TEMPS WERE RAISED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO INCREASE WED...AS THE 12Z GFS AND SOME OF
ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT A TROF OVER THE NE PAC WILL SPLIT...WITH
THE NORTHERN ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW WED AS AN OPEN TROF. THE
12Z ECMWF MAINTAINS A NE PAC CLOSED LOW THAT HARDLY MOVES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING RIDGING TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
PAC NW FOR SEVERAL DAYS. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ON WED DUE
TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. PYLE &&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ONSHORE SOON...THEN PUSH INLAND
TO THE CASCADES BY 13Z-15Z. IFR AND MVFR AT THE COAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR INLAND WITH MAIN PRECIP SHIELD
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GUSTY S-SSW WINDS EASE SOME AND
BECOME SW.

BEHIND THIS FRONT THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE IN
NATURE. STEADY RAIN WILL SWITCH TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
IMPROVED VSBYS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HEAVIER
SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL IN THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VIS THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT
TIMES... UP TO 25 KT WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND 13-14Z.
AFTER THAT WINDS TURN W-SW WITH IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS BUT
CONTINUED SHOWERS. EXPECT GENERAL VFR WITH SHOWERS TODAY...THOUGH
PERIODS OF MVFR ARE LIKELY AT TIMES. WEAGLE/KMD

&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL PUSH INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA TODAY AND WEAKEN. THIS LOW WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
ONSHORE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BEFORE SUNRISE...BRINGING GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO THE INNER WATERS. CONDITIONS HAVE EASED FARTHER OFFSHORE
AND DROPPED THE GALE THERE.

AS THE LOW TRACKS INLAND...BLUSTERY W-SW FLOW WILL DOMINATE
THURSDAY...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY EASING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THERE MAY BE A GUST TO 35 KT IN THE FAR NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS...MOST GUIDANCE SUGGEST SUB-GALES WILL DOMINATE TODAY. VERY
CHOPPY COMBINED SEAS 11-14 FT LIKELY THROUGH THU MORNING...BUT
THIS SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER THU/THU NIGHT. LIGHTER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FRI/EARLY SAT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLS OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS SLACKEN OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH SHOWERS MAY BRING SQUALLY WIND GUSTS ON FRI.

ANOTHER ORGANIZED FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES AGAIN
LATER SAT. KMD

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM

     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM PDT
THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 10 PM
THIS EVENING TO 5
     AM PDT FRIDAY.

&&


$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KSEW 241047
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
345 AM PDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WARM FRONT EAST OF THE AREA
WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN WASHINGTON
INTERIOR AT 10Z. TEMPERATURES WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER ARE IN A
NARROW RANGE...MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AT 3 AM.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CASCADES EARLY THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF
POST FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY EVIDENT ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS
THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE CASCADES THE KOLM-KBLI GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY. WITH A LACK OF WESTERLIES THROUGH THE STRAIT THIS
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY...15 TO 25 MPH...WINDS IN THE INTERIOR TODAY.
SHOWER ACTIVITY DECREASING SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. GFS MOS HAS 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SEATTLE. BUFR SOUNDING INDICATE
LIFTED INDEXES ABOVE ZERO...AROUND PLUS 2...THIS AFTERNOON WITH VERY
LITTLE CAPE OF SHEAR. THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER
50S SO A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT BUT FOR NOW THE
CHANCES TO NOT LOOK HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. AIR MASS
OVER THE AREA REMAINING COOL WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 0C
KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS BELOW NORMAL TODAY...IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVERNIGHT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUING. AIR MASS REMAINING SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THE COOL AIR MASS REMAINING OVERHEAD LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE COLDER LOCATIONS WILL GET DOWN INTO THE MID 30S.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WILL BE
COMMON.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INLAND OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON FRIDAY. JET
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON SO IT WILL TAKE SOME DAY
TIME HEATING TO INCREASE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT STILL COOL WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES STILL
AROUND 0C MAKING FOR ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
...LOWER TO MID 50S.

TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY DRYING UP OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. JET WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH BECOMING SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS
WILL SLOW THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH DOWN SO HAVE LEFT SOME
LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE TROUGH
AXIS HANGING UP OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IN
STORE...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH NO MODERATION OF THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

SOME INCONSISTENCIES IN THE TIMING OF THE NEXT ORGANIZED FRONT TO
REACH THE AREA. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE THE FASTER
SOLUTIONS...WITH RAIN FROM ABOUT PUGET SOUND WESTWARD SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS SLOWER KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE
UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS ZONAL
ON SATURDAY WHICH FAVORS THE FASTER SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON WITH THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK TROUGHINESS
OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY KEEPING SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. MODELS
SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE ON MONDAY WITH THE GFS BUILDING A WEAK
RIDGE OVER THE AREA WITH A DRYING TREND. THE ECMWF ALSO SHOWS SOME
RIDGE BUT BRINGS A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THE CANADIAN MODEL ALSO HAS A WARM FRONT MOVING INTO
THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TUESDAY WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 60S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE MODELS DISAGREE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN CONTINUING TO BUILD THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WHILE THE GFS SHIFTS THE
RIDGE TO THE EAST WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING ONSHORE DURING THE
DAY. WITH THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY HAVE STAYED WITH THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE FORECAST OF ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. IF THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE RIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER TO MID
70S ON WEDNESDAY. FELTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING REMAINS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE EXCEPTION REMAINS THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST
OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE NEAR OSO WHERE A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THIS RIVER AS A
RESULT OF WATER POOLED BEHIND THE DEBRIS DAM THAT PARTIALLY BLOCKS
THE RIVER.

AT 315 AM...THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH NEAR ARLINGTON WAS
AT 4.6 FT...OR 2820 CFS. THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER
NEAR OSO WAS AT 216.4 FT AT 1800 CFS. THE POOL EAST OF THE SLIDE WAS
282.0 FT.

WITH THE STEADY RAIN COMING TO AN END OVER THE SLIDE AREA JUST SOME
SLIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH THE RIVER REMAINING
STEADY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LATEST HYDROGRAPH SHOWS THE
STILLAGUAMISH NEAR ARLINGTON CRESTING BELOW 5 FEET. FELTON

&&

.AVALANCHE...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FURTHER HEAVY SNOW AND THEN
POTENTIAL RAIN SHOULD BE SEEN IN THE MT RAINIER TO MT HOOD AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS IS VERY LIKELY TO CAUSE WET LOOSE...STORM SLAB AND
WIND SLAB AVALANCHE CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA. AN AVALANCHE WARNING
CONTINUES FOR THE MT RAINIER TO MT HOOD AREA THIS MORNING. BACK
COUNTRY TRAVEL IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN IS THIS AREA IS NOT RECOMMENDED
THIS MORNING.

SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND AVALANCHE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN OTHER
AREAS BUT THAT ARE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN WARNING CRITERIA. AVALANCHES
ARE ALSO LIKELY IN THESE OTHER AREAS AS WELL.

PLEASE VISIT NWAC.US FOR DETAILS. GKF

&&

.AVIATION...FLOW ALOFT IS SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A MOIST AND STABLE AIR
MASS BECOMING SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE LATER THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH PUGET SOUND AT 09Z WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT AROUND 15Z. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH MVFR CEILINGS WILL TURN
TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN
CEILINGS TOWARD AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT.

KSEA...MVFR CEILINGS 2-3K FT AT TIMES IN RAIN THIS MORNING. RAIN
TURNING TO SHOWERS AFTER 15Z WITH CEILINGS MOSTLY VFR THIS
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT NEAR SHOWERS. SOUTHEAST WIND 7 TO 12
KNOTS...BECOMING S-SW 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 15Z AND REMAINING GUSTY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE INLAND
WATERS AT 09Z WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW LATER THIS MORNING. GALE
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALL OTHER WATERS. STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL
FOLLOW A SURFACE LOW AS IT LIFTS INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME GUSTY SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
INLAND WATERS MUCH OF TODAY. WINDS COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH GALE FORCE
IN PARTS OF PUGET SOUND LATER THIS MORNING.

AFTER A LULL IN THE ACTION FRIDAY...ANOTHER FRONT WILL SPREAD SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. 27

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
     STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE.

PZ...GALE WARNING COAST.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL OTHER WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION PLEASE SEE
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML   (ALL LOWERCASE)










000
FXUS66 KOTX 240958
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
258 AM PDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Occasional precipitation chances, breezy conditions and relatively
cool temperatures dominate the weather pattern. The next organized
storm system will bring periods of rain Thursday morning,
followed by a threat of scattered showers and thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon. Showers will remain a threat into the weekend,
before a relative lull comes for the start of the new work week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...

...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

Today and tonight: The Inland NW transitions from a stable
to a convective precipitation regime, before the threat of showers
wanes after dark. A warm front and its stable precipitation will
continue to shift into northeast WA and the ID Panhandle this
morning. Yet an occluding cold front and accompanying mid-level
shortwave will be coming east of the Cascades between 15-18Z (8-11
AM), before advancing east-northeast into north ID between 18-00Z
(11 AM-5 PM) and eventually out through MT tonight. This will keep
the precipitation threat high over the eastern third of WA and
north ID through the day, before starting to dissipate after about
00-03Z (5-8 PM). Precipitation turns more showery over central WA
westward to the Cascades before dying out with the loss of daytime
heating. Overall for this morning models place the higher
precipitation amounts across the eastern third of WA and the ID
Panhandle. By afternoon models place the higher QPF amounts over
northeast WA and north ID Panhandle, along and north of a line
from Davenport to Kellogg. However all areas will have a risk for
periods of locally heavy rain with instability and a thunderstorm
threat.

So yes, in addition to the generalized precipitation threat, there
will be potential for thunderstorms and some of these may be
strong. From near midday through early evening models show
convective instability blossoming. A swath of 200-500 J/kg of
CAPE and LIs between -1 and -3C across the Upper Columbia Basin
around 18Z (11AM) shift toward the eastern third of WA and north
ID between 21-00Z (2-5PM). A potential limiting factor in the
coverage and strength of storms will 0-6KM Bulk Shear. This is
favorable early today, with values between 25-40kts. However
toward midday this more favorable shear shifts south, mainly
impacting far southeast WA and the central Panhandle. Still this
is enough to be concerned that more organized storms are
possible, especially in this area. With a LLJ around 25-35kts
feeding into southeast WA and the central Panhandle and the
aforementioned instability, any organized storms will be capable
of strong winds, some hail and heavy downpours. With all these
factors I increased the thunderstorm chances from slight to chance
this afternoon across east-central and southeast WA and the
central and southern Panhandle. The best threat appears between
21-00Z (2 to 5 pm).

Aside from the precipitation threat the passing front will
increase the pressure gradient and mixing, leading to breezy and
locally gusty winds. Temperatures are expected to be near or
slightly below average. /J. Cote`

Friday through Sunday...The weather over the Inland NW will
continue to be subject to the whims of a deep upper level trough
which is expected to hang around through the weekend. Despite its
presence...the weather isn`t expected to be as wet as what we will
experience today and tonight as there are no signs of a sub-
tropical moisture intrusion.

For Thursday night and Friday the models are in good agreement
that the 500 mb trough axis will shift onto the coast which
should transition the mid-level flow to a southerly orientation.
Just how much precipitation this will result in isn`t
certain...but there quite a bit of model consensus that much of
the region will be dry...at least through the late morning hours.
The exception could be over the SE corner of WA and the adjacent
portions of the Idaho Panhandle. This is the location where
moisture from todays system could remain fixed as the negatively
tilted shortwave pushes through to the northeast. Whether it
remains fixed there or farther south through Friday morning isn`t
certain but there is a good chance that it will work its way back
to the north during the afternoon as the mid-level flow backs
toward the south. This will spread a high threat of stratiform
precipitation across the Idaho Panhandle south of I90 with a
lesser chance north. Across the remainder of the forecast area we
will likely see diurnal heating lead to convection as lapse rates
fall in advance of the 500 mb cold pool. Unstable conditions are
not expected to be deep enough to trigger thunderstorms...but some
could near the Cascades as 500 mb temps drop to near -30c late in
the day.

For Friday night and into early Saturday trof and 500 mb cold
pool will shear apart as the longwave pattern is undercut by a
strong upper level jet cutting through the desert SW. This will
still leave the stratiform rain shield fixed over the Idaho
Panhandle and the western portions of Montana. The chances for
measurable precipitation will decrease steadily from east to west
across the eastern half of Washington. By afternoon the approach
of a minor shortwave trough from the southwest could wrap some of
the Idaho moisture into the NE corner of Washington. Precipitation
totals from Friday night into Saturday could be appreciable over
portions of the Panhandle with readings nearing a half inch or
slightly more over SW facing slopes. Snow levels will generally be
above 4500 feet...so Mullan Pass could see some appreciable snow.

For Sunday the base of the trough is expected to retreat to the
north and it will gradually be undercut by moist west-southwest
flow. This will result in an increasing precipitation threat
beginning Sunday morning over SC Washington and gradually
spreading northeast across the remainder of the region during the
afternoon and evening. This could be the last batch of widespread
precipitation as the extended models are all hinting at an
amplifying ridge beginning to develop by Monday and persisting
into Tuesday and beyond. fx

Tuesday Night through Thursday: Models have come into better
agreement concerning the middle of next week placing the Inland NW
in a dry ridge pattern. By Tuesday night the ridge looks to be
firmly in place pushing the storm track to our north and leaving
our region in a stable, dry pattern. With the ridge overhead we
can expect clearing skies, warming temps and light winds. The
biggest question of this time frame currently is how high the
temperatures get throughout the daytime. Right now the models
have pegged next Thursday as the warmest day, but disagree on how
warm. With the strength of the ridge, the region will likely
approach the warmest temps we have seen so far this year. An easy
way to sum up this period would be...very pleasant. /Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Steady rainfall continues to build northward through the
Columbia Basin with most terminals expecting pcpn by 08z. Cigs
will gradually lower and pcpn bcmg moderate temporarily as a cold
front presses through btwn 15-18z. The frontal passage will mark
the end of the steady rain and promote incr winds. A brief break
is possible however a destabilizing atmosphere will lead to widely
scattered -shra through late aftn with a good potential for isolated
thunderstorms. NAM/GFS indicate enough instability setting up btwn
MWH-GEG-COE to include vcts with the 06z issuance. Any storms will
have the potential for small hail and strong wind gusts. /sb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        56  36  54  37  55  36 / 100  60  30  30  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  53  35  54  37  54  34 / 100  70  40  40  40  20
Pullman        55  37  51  37  53  35 / 100  50  50  50  20  20
Lewiston       61  43  55  42  58  40 / 100  50  60  50  10  20
Colville       59  33  60  36  61  34 / 100  20  40  20  50  40
Sandpoint      50  34  54  37  53  34 / 100  80  40  70  80  40
Kellogg        51  34  52  36  49  34 / 100  70  60  80  70  30
Moses Lake     64  38  61  38  63  40 /  70  10  20  10   0  30
Wenatchee      62  42  61  41  63  43 /  60  10  30  10   0  30
Omak           62  34  61  35  63  36 / 100  10  20  10   0  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 240549
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1048 PM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Occasional precipitation chances, breezy conditions and relatively
cool temperatures dominate the weather pattern. The next organized
storm system will bring steady light rain late tonight and into
Thursday, followed by a threat of more scattered showers, and
perhaps some thunder, Thursday afternoon. Showers will remain a
threat into the weekend, before a relative lull comes for the
start of the new work week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Evening update: Rain continues to fill in across the lower
Columbia Basin as deep moisture continues to be transported ahead
an approaching warm front. As of 930PM...rain has materialized
from Lind to Moses Lake to Wenatchee. Amounts have only ranged
between a trace to 0.01" but this will change as a warm front
lifts toward the region. There is little doubt that widespread
rain will engulf a majority of the Columbia Basin...East
Slopes...and spread into the northern Mountains throughout the
next 6-12 hours and consequently, Pops have been nudged toward
100%.

Snow levels are currently on track which range from 4000-4500 in
the Cascades to 3500-4000` north and east. The threat for
accumulating snow at Stevens Pass is not as certain with
temperatures currently at 35F. Snow is likely by morning at
Sherman Pass and will be increasing during the early morning hours
at Lookout which is currently at the freezing mark.

Rainfall through 12z will generally range from a tenth to quarter
of an inch in the lowlands. Lower amounts are expected at
locations like Lewiston and in the foothills of the Blues due to
localized downsloping winds. This will also be the case for the
Camas Prairie and it is not out the realm of possibility that
these locations see only trace amounts of precipitation within the
overnight period. This will change however as the warm front lifts
north and a trailing cold front presses through btwn 12-18z. This
front will focus the steady pcpn southeast between the Blues...L-C
Valley...Camas Prairie and into the Central Panhandle Mtn as well
as the northern mountains and intensity into the moderate category
is a possibility.

What is more concerning is the potential for clearing and arrival
of a secondary wave. GFS/NAM indicate 400-700 J/kg of surface
based CAPE at 18z centered across the Central Basin which migrates
northeast through the aftn. There is some CIN but also a midlevel
shortwave which could provide the necessary lift. This could mean
two things...an early start to thunderstorms or at least the
potential for moderate to heavy showers bringing an additional
quarter to half an inch of rainfall. Will pass these thoughts on
to the night shift and see if any drastic changes show up with the
incoming ECMWF before adjusting timing/placement of thunderstorm
chances. /sb


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Steady rainfall continues to build northward through the
Columbia Basin with most terminals expecting pcpn by 08z. Cigs
will gradually lower and pcpn bcmg moderate temporarily as a cold
front presses through btwn 15-18z. The frontal passage will mark
the end of the steady rain and promote incr winds. A brief break
is possible however a destabilizing atmosphere will lead to widely
scattered -shra through late aftn with a good potential for isolated
thunderstorms. NAM/GFS indicate enough instability setting up btwn
MWH-GEG-COE to include vcts with the 06z issuance. Any storms will
have the potential for small hail and strong wind gusts. /sb



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        40  58  38  54  37  56 / 100 100  40  40  30  20
Coeur d`Alene  36  53  37  53  36  55 /  90 100  70  50  50  40
Pullman        36  55  39  50  36  53 / 100 100  50  50  50  30
Lewiston       42  62  44  55  42  59 /  60 100  60  70  50  30
Colville       36  59  35  61  38  61 /  80 100  60  40  20  30
Sandpoint      38  51  36  54  38  54 /  50 100  80  50  50  50
Kellogg        33  50  36  52  36  50 /  60 100  70  70  60  60
Moses Lake     44  64  40  61  39  63 / 100  70  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      45  63  43  61  41  62 /  90  60  10  10  10  10
Omak           44  62  36  62  34  62 / 100 100  10  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 240501
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1000 PM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Occasional precipitation chances, breezy conditions and relatively
cool temperatures dominate the weather pattern. The next organized
storm system will bring steady light rain late tonight and into
Thursday, followed by a threat of more scattered showers, and
perhaps some thunder, Thursday afternoon. Showers will remain a
threat into the weekend, before a relative lull comes for the
start of the new work week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Evening update: Rain continues to fill in across the lower
Columbia Basin as deep moisture continues to be transported ahead
an approaching warm front. As of 930PM...rain has materialized
from Lind to Moses Lake to Wenatchee. Amounts have only ranged
between a trace to 0.01" but this will change as a warm front
lifts toward the region. There is little doubt that widespread
rain will engulf a majority of the Columbia Basin...East
Slopes...and spread into the northern Mountains throughout the
next 6-12 hours and consequently, Pops have been nudged toward
100%.

Snow levels are currently on track which range from 4000-4500 in
the Cascades to 3500-4000` north and east. The threat for
accumulating snow at Stevens Pass is not as certain with
temperatures currently at 35F. Snow is likely by morning at
Sherman Pass and will be increasing during the early morning hours
at Lookout which is currently at the freezing mark.

Rainfall through 12z will generally range from a tenth to quarter
of an inch in the lowlands. Lower amounts are expected at
locations like Lewiston and in the foothills of the Blues due to
localized downsloping winds. This will also be the case for the
Camas Prairie and it is not out the realm of possibility that
these locations see only trace amounts of precipitation within the
overnight period. This will change however as the warm front lifts
north and a trailing cold front presses through btwn 12-18z. This
front will focus the steady pcpn southeast between the Blues...L-C
Valley...Camas Prairie and into the Central Panhandle Mtn as well
as the northern mountains and intensity into the moderate category
is a possibility.

What is more concerning is the potential for clearing and arrival
of a secondary wave. GFS/NAM indicate 400-700 J/kg of surface
based CAPE at 18z centered across the Central Basin which migrates
northeast through the aftn. There is some CIN but also a midlevel
shortwave which could provide the necessary lift. This could mean
two things...an early start to thunderstorms or at least the
potential for moderate to heavy showers bringing an additional
quarter to half an inch of rainfall. Will pass these thoughts on
to the night shift and see if any drastic changes show up with the
incoming ECMWF before adjusting timing/placement of thunderstorm
chances. /sb


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: The region will transition from an unstable showery
regime to a stable rainfall overnight. Diurnally driven showers
under a pool of lingering instability east of a line frm KMLP to
KCQV will wane with sunset. Meanwhile...a moist warm front will
approach from the SSW bringing lower cigs and steady rain to all
terminals aft 04z. A cold front passage btwn 13-18z will end the
steady rain and promote incr winds. A brief drying trend will be
followed by a destabilizing atmosphere and widely scattered -shra
through late aftn. Isolated thunderstorms are strong possibility
but coverage at this time does not warrant a prevailing line in
the 00z tafs. VCTS could be included with the 06z issuance. /sb



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        40  58  38  54  37  56 / 100 100  40  40  30  20
Coeur d`Alene  36  53  37  53  36  55 /  90 100  70  50  50  40
Pullman        36  55  39  50  36  53 / 100 100  50  50  50  30
Lewiston       42  62  44  55  42  59 /  60 100  60  70  50  30
Colville       36  59  35  61  38  61 /  80 100  60  40  20  30
Sandpoint      38  51  36  54  38  54 /  50 100  80  50  50  50
Kellogg        33  50  36  52  36  50 /  60 100  70  70  60  60
Moses Lake     44  64  40  61  39  63 / 100  70  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      45  63  43  61  41  62 /  90  60  10  10  10  10
Omak           44  62  36  62  34  62 / 100 100  10  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 240416
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
915 PM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT  AND
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING FOR CONTINUED PERSISTENT RAIN
AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW. THE PARENT UPPER LOW OR TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTH TOWARD CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING ONSHORE AND THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING FOR
MORE SHOWERS. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CONTINUES THIS EVENING AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHERE THE WARM FRONT IS ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS IT MAINLY SHOWS A BLOB OF UNORGANIZED
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THAT THE WARM FRONT IS DRAPING EAST TO WEST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
SALEM OREGON AND KELSO WASHINGTON.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLEX LOW OFFSHORE. SUBTLE FEATURES IN
WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITES SHOW THAT THERE ACTUALLY MAY BE
TWO CLOSE-KNIT COLD FRONTS OFFSHORE. THE MAIN ONE ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW NEAR 48N 128W. THERE APPEARS TO BE SIGNS OF ANOTHER WEAKER
SURFACE LOW AROUND 43N 129W. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS ESPECIALLY FOR THE
COAST TONIGHT AS THESE FRONTS APPROACH.

THE NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE HAS SEEN QUITE A BIT OF RAIN THIS
EVENING WITH MANY RAIN GAGES REPORTING AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE PAST 6
HOURS.THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY HAS MEASURED AROUND 0.3 INCH THE PAST 6
HOURS..AND THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH.

SNOW LEVELS HAVE BEEN RISING AND ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 5500 FEET.
STILL THINK THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL GET A GOOD DOSE OF SNOW
OVERNIGHT AND WILL LET HE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADES
RIDE OUT.

WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
MODEL LIFTED INDEX VALUES LOOK A LITTLE WEAK FOR THUNDER BUT WE
SHOULD AT LEAST SEE SOME SMALL HAIL...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A
BIT OF A CAP AT 700 MB AS THE MAIN COLDER AIR ALOFT IS STILL
OFFSHORE. ON FRIDAY THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON AND THUNDER CHANCES LOOK A
BIT BETTER AS TEMPS AT 500 MB FALL TO MINUS 28 DEG C.

WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES AND THERE IS NOT MUCH UPPER RIDGING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
THE NEXT STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. HARTLEY/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN.
KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. A
WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRUSH THE FCST AREA WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ON MON...BUT THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD DRIER WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PAC NW. RIGHT NOW...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH
THAT TUE WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH THE RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...AND
HIGH TEMPS WERE RAISED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LATEST FCST PACKAGE.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY BEGINS
TO INCREASE WED...AS THE 12Z GFS AND SOME OF ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE
THAT A TROF OVER THE NE PAC WILL SPLIT...WITH THE NORTHERN ENERGY
PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW WED AS AN OPEN TROF. THE 12Z ECMWF MAINTAINS
A NE PAC CLOSED LOW THAT HARDLY MOVES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...ALLOWING RIDGING TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE PAC NW FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ON WED DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY. PYLE
&&

.AVIATION...DISORGANIZED YET POTENT FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SPREAD RAIN AND GENERAL MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE WINDS
MAY GUST TO 40 KNOTS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ONSHORE 08Z-10Z...THEN
PUSH INLAND TO THE CASCADES BY 13Z-15Z.

BEHIND THIS FRONT THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE IN
NATURE...WITH BETTER MIXING AND CIGS PUSHING BACK UP INTO THE
2000-3000 FT RANGE. STEADY RAIN WILL SWITCH TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH IMPROVED VSBYS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.
HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL IN THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS LIKELY TO HOLD AROUND 1500 FT IN
OCCASIONAL RAIN THROUGH 12Z. S WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES...
UP TO 25 KT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT 12Z-14Z. AFTER THAT
WINDS TURN W-SW WITH IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS BUT CONTINUED SHOWERS.
EXPECT GENERAL MVFR WITH SHOWERS THURSDAY...THOUGH PERIODS OF VFR
ARE LIKELY BETWEEN SHOWERS.  WEAGLE
&&

.MARINE...COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PAC NW COAST ALREADY
BROUGHT ONE SURGE OF S WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...
AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER VERY EARLY THU MORNING. GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL JET...PRIOR
TO 12Z. DECIDED TO END THE GALE WARNING FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS
JUST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING...BUT
WILL KEEP IT THROUGH MIDDAY FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AS A FEW GALE
GUSTS COULD LINGER AS THE PARENT LOW PUSHES INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND.

OTHERWISE AFTER SUNRISE...BLUSTERY AND SQUALLY W-SW FLOW WILL
DOMINATE THURSDAY...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY EASING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VERY CHOPPY COMBINED SEAS 12-16 FT LIKELY
THROUGH THU MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER THU/THU
NIGHT. LIGHTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI/EARLY SAT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND PRESSURE
GRADIENTS SLACKEN OVER THE AREA.  WEAGLE
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PDT THURSDAY.
&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 240416
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
915 PM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT  AND
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING FOR CONTINUED PERSISTENT RAIN
AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW. THE PARENT UPPER LOW OR TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTH TOWARD CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING ONSHORE AND THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING FOR
MORE SHOWERS. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CONTINUES THIS EVENING AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHERE THE WARM FRONT IS ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS IT MAINLY SHOWS A BLOB OF UNORGANIZED
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THAT THE WARM FRONT IS DRAPING EAST TO WEST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
SALEM OREGON AND KELSO WASHINGTON.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLEX LOW OFFSHORE. SUBTLE FEATURES IN
WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITES SHOW THAT THERE ACTUALLY MAY BE
TWO CLOSE-KNIT COLD FRONTS OFFSHORE. THE MAIN ONE ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW NEAR 48N 128W. THERE APPEARS TO BE SIGNS OF ANOTHER WEAKER
SURFACE LOW AROUND 43N 129W. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS ESPECIALLY FOR THE
COAST TONIGHT AS THESE FRONTS APPROACH.

THE NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE HAS SEEN QUITE A BIT OF RAIN THIS
EVENING WITH MANY RAIN GAGES REPORTING AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE PAST 6
HOURS.THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY HAS MEASURED AROUND 0.3 INCH THE PAST 6
HOURS..AND THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH.

SNOW LEVELS HAVE BEEN RISING AND ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 5500 FEET.
STILL THINK THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL GET A GOOD DOSE OF SNOW
OVERNIGHT AND WILL LET HE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADES
RIDE OUT.

WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
MODEL LIFTED INDEX VALUES LOOK A LITTLE WEAK FOR THUNDER BUT WE
SHOULD AT LEAST SEE SOME SMALL HAIL...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A
BIT OF A CAP AT 700 MB AS THE MAIN COLDER AIR ALOFT IS STILL
OFFSHORE. ON FRIDAY THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON AND THUNDER CHANCES LOOK A
BIT BETTER AS TEMPS AT 500 MB FALL TO MINUS 28 DEG C.

WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES AND THERE IS NOT MUCH UPPER RIDGING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
THE NEXT STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. HARTLEY/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN.
KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. A
WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRUSH THE FCST AREA WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ON MON...BUT THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD DRIER WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PAC NW. RIGHT NOW...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH
THAT TUE WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH THE RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...AND
HIGH TEMPS WERE RAISED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LATEST FCST PACKAGE.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY BEGINS
TO INCREASE WED...AS THE 12Z GFS AND SOME OF ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE
THAT A TROF OVER THE NE PAC WILL SPLIT...WITH THE NORTHERN ENERGY
PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW WED AS AN OPEN TROF. THE 12Z ECMWF MAINTAINS
A NE PAC CLOSED LOW THAT HARDLY MOVES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...ALLOWING RIDGING TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE PAC NW FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ON WED DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY. PYLE
&&

.AVIATION...DISORGANIZED YET POTENT FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SPREAD RAIN AND GENERAL MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE WINDS
MAY GUST TO 40 KNOTS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ONSHORE 08Z-10Z...THEN
PUSH INLAND TO THE CASCADES BY 13Z-15Z.

BEHIND THIS FRONT THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE IN
NATURE...WITH BETTER MIXING AND CIGS PUSHING BACK UP INTO THE
2000-3000 FT RANGE. STEADY RAIN WILL SWITCH TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH IMPROVED VSBYS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.
HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL IN THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS LIKELY TO HOLD AROUND 1500 FT IN
OCCASIONAL RAIN THROUGH 12Z. S WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES...
UP TO 25 KT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT 12Z-14Z. AFTER THAT
WINDS TURN W-SW WITH IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS BUT CONTINUED SHOWERS.
EXPECT GENERAL MVFR WITH SHOWERS THURSDAY...THOUGH PERIODS OF VFR
ARE LIKELY BETWEEN SHOWERS.  WEAGLE
&&

.MARINE...COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PAC NW COAST ALREADY
BROUGHT ONE SURGE OF S WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...
AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER VERY EARLY THU MORNING. GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL JET...PRIOR
TO 12Z. DECIDED TO END THE GALE WARNING FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS
JUST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING...BUT
WILL KEEP IT THROUGH MIDDAY FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AS A FEW GALE
GUSTS COULD LINGER AS THE PARENT LOW PUSHES INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND.

OTHERWISE AFTER SUNRISE...BLUSTERY AND SQUALLY W-SW FLOW WILL
DOMINATE THURSDAY...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY EASING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VERY CHOPPY COMBINED SEAS 12-16 FT LIKELY
THROUGH THU MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER THU/THU
NIGHT. LIGHTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI/EARLY SAT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND PRESSURE
GRADIENTS SLACKEN OVER THE AREA.  WEAGLE
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PDT THURSDAY.
&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 240416
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
915 PM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT  AND
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING FOR CONTINUED PERSISTENT RAIN
AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW. THE PARENT UPPER LOW OR TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTH TOWARD CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING ONSHORE AND THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING FOR
MORE SHOWERS. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CONTINUES THIS EVENING AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHERE THE WARM FRONT IS ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS IT MAINLY SHOWS A BLOB OF UNORGANIZED
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THAT THE WARM FRONT IS DRAPING EAST TO WEST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
SALEM OREGON AND KELSO WASHINGTON.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLEX LOW OFFSHORE. SUBTLE FEATURES IN
WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITES SHOW THAT THERE ACTUALLY MAY BE
TWO CLOSE-KNIT COLD FRONTS OFFSHORE. THE MAIN ONE ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW NEAR 48N 128W. THERE APPEARS TO BE SIGNS OF ANOTHER WEAKER
SURFACE LOW AROUND 43N 129W. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS ESPECIALLY FOR THE
COAST TONIGHT AS THESE FRONTS APPROACH.

THE NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE HAS SEEN QUITE A BIT OF RAIN THIS
EVENING WITH MANY RAIN GAGES REPORTING AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE PAST 6
HOURS.THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY HAS MEASURED AROUND 0.3 INCH THE PAST 6
HOURS..AND THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH.

SNOW LEVELS HAVE BEEN RISING AND ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 5500 FEET.
STILL THINK THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL GET A GOOD DOSE OF SNOW
OVERNIGHT AND WILL LET HE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADES
RIDE OUT.

WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
MODEL LIFTED INDEX VALUES LOOK A LITTLE WEAK FOR THUNDER BUT WE
SHOULD AT LEAST SEE SOME SMALL HAIL...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A
BIT OF A CAP AT 700 MB AS THE MAIN COLDER AIR ALOFT IS STILL
OFFSHORE. ON FRIDAY THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON AND THUNDER CHANCES LOOK A
BIT BETTER AS TEMPS AT 500 MB FALL TO MINUS 28 DEG C.

WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES AND THERE IS NOT MUCH UPPER RIDGING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
THE NEXT STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. HARTLEY/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN.
KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A TRANSITION TO
SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. A
WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRUSH THE FCST AREA WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ON MON...BUT THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD DRIER WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PAC NW. RIGHT NOW...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH
THAT TUE WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH THE RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...AND
HIGH TEMPS WERE RAISED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LATEST FCST PACKAGE.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY BEGINS
TO INCREASE WED...AS THE 12Z GFS AND SOME OF ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE
THAT A TROF OVER THE NE PAC WILL SPLIT...WITH THE NORTHERN ENERGY
PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW WED AS AN OPEN TROF. THE 12Z ECMWF MAINTAINS
A NE PAC CLOSED LOW THAT HARDLY MOVES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...ALLOWING RIDGING TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE PAC NW FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ON WED DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY. PYLE
&&

.AVIATION...DISORGANIZED YET POTENT FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SPREAD RAIN AND GENERAL MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE WINDS
MAY GUST TO 40 KNOTS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ONSHORE 08Z-10Z...THEN
PUSH INLAND TO THE CASCADES BY 13Z-15Z.

BEHIND THIS FRONT THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE IN
NATURE...WITH BETTER MIXING AND CIGS PUSHING BACK UP INTO THE
2000-3000 FT RANGE. STEADY RAIN WILL SWITCH TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH IMPROVED VSBYS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.
HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL IN THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS LIKELY TO HOLD AROUND 1500 FT IN
OCCASIONAL RAIN THROUGH 12Z. S WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES...
UP TO 25 KT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT 12Z-14Z. AFTER THAT
WINDS TURN W-SW WITH IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS BUT CONTINUED SHOWERS.
EXPECT GENERAL MVFR WITH SHOWERS THURSDAY...THOUGH PERIODS OF VFR
ARE LIKELY BETWEEN SHOWERS.  WEAGLE
&&

.MARINE...COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PAC NW COAST ALREADY
BROUGHT ONE SURGE OF S WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...
AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER VERY EARLY THU MORNING. GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL JET...PRIOR
TO 12Z. DECIDED TO END THE GALE WARNING FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS
JUST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING...BUT
WILL KEEP IT THROUGH MIDDAY FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AS A FEW GALE
GUSTS COULD LINGER AS THE PARENT LOW PUSHES INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND.

OTHERWISE AFTER SUNRISE...BLUSTERY AND SQUALLY W-SW FLOW WILL
DOMINATE THURSDAY...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY EASING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VERY CHOPPY COMBINED SEAS 12-16 FT LIKELY
THROUGH THU MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER THU/THU
NIGHT. LIGHTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI/EARLY SAT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND PRESSURE
GRADIENTS SLACKEN OVER THE AREA.  WEAGLE
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PDT THURSDAY.
&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KSEW 240336
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
830 PM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INLAND THURSDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. A THIRD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE
ORGANIZED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RAIN HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INLAND THURSDAY MORNING WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SHOWERS. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST BUT THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SUNSHINE
AT TIMES. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY...WITH RAIN REACHING THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND
SPREADING INTO THE INTERIOR BY EVENING. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING THROUGH WESTERN WA FOR SCATTERED
ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE SUN NIGHT AS A RIDGE START TO BUILD
OVER THE PAC NW.

A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY CLIP WESTERN WASHINGTON ON MONDAY FOR A CHANCE
OF RAIN. THE MODELS THEN STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TUE
AND WED FOR WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS AN H5 580 RIDGE OVER WA. THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW IS ALSO TURNING OFFSHORE AND WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO 70S IF THIS PANS OUT. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING REMAINS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE EXCEPTION REMAINS THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST
OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE NEAR OSO WHERE A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THIS RIVER AS A
RESULT OF WATER POOLED BEHIND THE DEBRIS DAM THAT PARTIALLY BLOCKS
THE RIVER.

AT 8 PM...THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH NEAR ARLINGTON WAS
AT 4.6 FT...OR 2810 CFS. THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER
NEAR OSO WAS AT 216.4 FT AT 1800 CFS. THE POOL EAST OF THE SLIDE WAS
282.2 FT THIS EVENING.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AROUND 1.00 INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE RISES ON THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER BEGINNING THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LATEST HYDROGRAPH SHOWS THE STILLAGUAMISH NEAR
ARLINGTON CRESTING LATE THURSDAY MORNING AROUND 5 FEET.

&&

.AVALANCHE...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FURTHER HEAVY SNOW AND THEN
POTENTIAL RAIN SHOULD BE SEEN IN THE MT RAINIER TO MT HOOD AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS VERY LIKELY TO CAUSE
WET LOOSE...STORM SLAB AND WIND SLAB AVALANCHE CONDITIONS IN THIS
AREA. AN AVALANCHE WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE MT RAINIER TO MT
HOOD AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. BACK COUNTRY
TRAVEL IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN IS THIS AREA IS NOT RECOMMENDED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND AVALANCHE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN OTHER
AREAS BUT THAT ARE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN WARNING CRITERIA. AVALANCHES
ARE ALSO LIKELY IN THESE OTHER AREAS AS WELL.

PLEASE VISIT NWAC.US FOR DETAILS. GKF

&&

.AVIATION...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE MORNING
THURSDAY. UPPER FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
LOW MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE
RAIN WILL TURN TO SHOWERS MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH CEILINGS LIFTING TO
MOSTLY VFR. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO
VANCOUVER ISLAND.


KSEA...MVFR CEILINGS 2-3K FT OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY
TO 3SM AT TIMES TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WIND 7 TO 12 KNOTS...SHIFTING TO
SOUTHERLY AFTER 09Z. WINDS WILL RISE FROM THE S-SW AFTER
12Z...GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS AT TIMES INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ARE STARTING TO RISE OVER
THE PAST HOUR AS A WARM FRONT EDGES CLOSER. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ALL OTHER WATERS. STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL FOLLOW
A SURFACE LOW AS IT LIFTS INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME GUSTY SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE INLAND
WATERS MUCH OF THURSDAY. WINDS COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH GALE FORCE IN
PARTS OF PUGET SOUND THURSDAY MORNING.

AFTER A LULL IN THE ACTION FRIDAY...ANOTHER FRONT WILL SPREAD SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. 27

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
     STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE.

PZ...GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL OTHER WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION PLEASE SEE
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML   (ALL LOWERCASE)







000
FXUS66 KOTX 240024
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
524 PM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Occasional precipitation chances, breezy conditions and relatively
cool temperatures dominate the weather pattern. The next organized
storm system will bring steady light rain late tonight and into
Thursday, followed by a threat of more scattered showers, and
perhaps some thunder, Thursday afternoon. Showers will remain a
threat into the weekend, before a relative lull comes for the
start of the new work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday...The forecast area is in the grip of a
showery regime this afternoon as an exiting upper level wave
provides enough lift to work with some surface based instability
generating scattered showers...some with small hail. It is not out
of the question that a brief thunderstorm or two may pop up during
the early evening pre-sunset hours over the Palouse and Idaho
Panhandle. After sunset most of this activity should die
down...especially across the northern tier zones...however the
next organized and strong pacific storm is already moving onshore
with regional radar suggesting an incipient warm frontal
precipitation shield forming along the Oregon/Washington border.

Models are in good agreement with the evolution of this system. A
warm front will form and consolidate west to east over the
forecast area tonight leading to an onset of light stratiform rain
at all locations...probably the west and south zones this evening
and through the remainder of the area later tonight. By Thursday
morning all of the forecast area will be subject to rain. the
trailing occluded front will likely cross the Cascades and bring
some drying to the deep basin zones after 9 am or so as some
downslope effect kicks in...with a tapering to showers in the
eastern basin late in the morning. This will not be the end of it
though...cooling aloft from the approach of the trough driving
the occluded front combined with potential sunbreaks over much of
the region after the morning rain shield moves out will conspire
to produce scattered to numerous convective showers and a decent
potential for isolated thunderstorms east of a line from Omak to
Lewiston during the afternoon hours. Only the deep basin/Cascades
lee zones will be effectively done with any significant
precipitation by afternoon. Breezy conditions will once again
develop over the exposed terrain of the basin with wind gusts near
30 mph in the well mixed post frontal air mass. Temperatures on
Thursday will be heavily influenced by mixing over the basin and
heavily influenced by continuing precipitation over the
orographically influenced northeast mountains and Idaho
Panhandle...suggesting near or slightly above normal in the deep
basin to below normal in the northeast and panhandle zones.
/Fugazzi

Thursday night through Saturday...An upper level trough centered
just off the WA/OR coast Thursday night will slowly move across
the Inland Northwest Friday and Saturday. A stronger disturbance
embedded within this trough will drop well south of the area into
California...but some of this moisture will get picked up in the
southerly flow ahead of the trough into the Blue Mountains,
Camas Prairie, and Idaho Panhandle clipping far Eastern
Washington. This will keep the highest coverage of showers in
these areas with low level upslope flow into the high terrain
further favoring high POPs. Elsewhere isolated to scattered
shower coverage is expected mainly over the mountains due to
terrain forcing. Overall shower coverage will be greatest during
afternoon/early evening hours when the atmosphere is moderately
unstable. JW

Saturday night through Wednesday...Cluttered and progressive zonal
flow that amplifies ever so slightly on Monday continues to keep
Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho generally cooler and
potentially wetter than normal along with persistent intervals of
breezy/gusty winds at least through Monday night. There has been
some model consistency in bringing in and amplifying a ridge of
high pressure for Tuesday and Wednesday with the more favored
ECMWF solution not only amplifying the ridge more but holding it
in place longer through that next workweek which would suggest a
nice warming and drying trend. /Pelatti


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: The region will transition from an unstable showery
regime to a stable rainfall overnight. Diurnally driven showers
under a pool of lingering instability east of a line frm KMLP to
KCQV will wane with sunset. Meanwhile...a moist warm front will
approach from the SSW bringing lower cigs and steady rain to all
terminals aft 04z. A cold front passage btwn 13-18z will end the
steady rain and promote incr winds. A brief drying trend will be
followed by a destabilizing atmosphere and widely scattered -shra
through late aftn. Isolated thunderstorms are strong possibility
but coverage at this time does not warrant a prevailing line in
the 00z tafs. VCTS could be included with the 06z issuance. /sb


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        40  58  38  54  37  56 /  80 100  40  40  30  20
Coeur d`Alene  39  53  37  53  36  55 /  70 100  70  50  50  40
Pullman        42  55  39  50  36  53 /  70 100  50  50  50  30
Lewiston       46  62  44  55  42  59 /  50 100  60  70  50  30
Colville       37  59  35  61  38  61 /  70 100  60  40  20  30
Sandpoint      38  51  36  54  38  54 /  70 100  80  50  50  50
Kellogg        37  50  36  52  36  50 /  70 100  70  70  60  60
Moses Lake     44  64  40  61  39  63 /  80  70  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      45  63  43  61  41  62 /  70  60  10  10  10  10
Omak           39  62  36  62  34  62 /  80 100  10  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 232231 AAA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
331 PM PDT WED APR 23 2014

UPDATED HYDROLOGY SECTION AND ADDED AVALANCHE SECTION.

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON
FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND THURSDAY
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. A THIRD FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL TO THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RAIN WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS
EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD IS NOW UP TO KING COUNTY...RAIN SHOULD
REACH THE NW INTERIOR BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INLAND THURSDAY MORNING FOR MORE SHOWERS AND BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 5000 FT WITH THE WARM
FRONT...THEN DROP BACK DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY.

THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL AND UNSTABLE ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NE PAC MOVES INLAND. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S. ISOLATED T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRI
AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AND EXIT
EAST FRI NIGHT WITH SHOWERS DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA.

LOOK FOR A BREAK IN THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT IS A LITTLE SLOWER
IN THE MODELS...WHICH IS NOW SLATED TO MOVE INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR ANOTHER WET PERIOD OF WEATHER. 33

.LONG TERM...MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRACKING THROUGH WESTERN WA FOR SCATTERED ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE SUN NIGHT AS A RIDGE START TO BUILD OVER THE PAC NW.

A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY CLIP WESTERN WASHINGTON ON MONDAY FOR A CHANCE
OF RAIN. THE MODELS THEN STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TUE
AND WED FOR WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS AN H5 580 RIDGE OVER WA. THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW IS ALSO TURNING OFFSHORE AND WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO 70S IF THIS PANS OUT. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING REMAINS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE EXCEPTION REMAINS THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST
OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE NEAR OSO WHERE A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THIS RIVER AS A
RESULT OF WATER POOLED BEHIND THE DEBRIS DAM THAT PARTIALLY BLOCKS
THE RIVER.

AT 3 PM...THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH NEAR ARLINGTON WAS
AT 4.6 FT...OR 2840 CFS. THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER
NEAR OSO WAS AT 216.4 FT AT 1850 CFS. THE POOL EAST OF THE SLIDE WAS
282.3 FT THIS AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AROUND 1.00 INCH
OF RAINFALL TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE RISES ON THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER BEGINNING THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LATEST HYDROGRAPH SHOWS THE STILLAGUAMISH NEAR
ARLINGTON CRESTING LATE THURSDAY MORNING AROUND 5 FEET.

&&

.AVALANCHE...FURTHER HEAVY SNOW AND THEN POTENTIAL RAIN SHOULD BE
SEEN IN THE MT RAINIER TO MT HOOD AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS IS VERY LIKELY TO CAUSE WET LOOSE...STORM SLAB AND
WIND SLAB AVALANCHE CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA. AN AVALANCHE WARNING
WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE MT RAINIER TO MT HOOD AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. BACK COUNTRY TRAVEL IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN
IS THIS AREA IS NOT RECOMMENDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING.

SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND AVALANCHE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN OTHER
AREAS BUT THAT ARE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN WARNING CRITERIA. AVALANCHES
ARE ALSO LIKELY IN THESE OTHER AREAS AS WELL.

PLEASE VISIT NWAC.US FOR DETAILS. GKF

&&

.AVIATION...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH WASHINGTON
TONIGHT. UPPER FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES IN.
AT THE SURFACE A LOW PRES CENTER WILL APPROACH THE COAST TONIGHT
THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND TONIGHT...GIVING MODERATE
TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTH. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER THIS AFTERNOON TO MVFR AS RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY ALL NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

KSEA...MVFR CEILINGS 2-3K FT. RAIN WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 3SM AT
TIMES TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WIND 10-15 KT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...WARM FRONTAL RAIN BAND IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH. WINDS HAVE
BEEN 15-20 KT OVER INLAND AREAS...MORE IN A FEW SPOTS...SO HAVE
ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL INLAND WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. MODELS HAD SOME LOW END GALE WINDS ON THE COAST SO HAVE
ISSUED A GALE WARNING THERE. GENERALLY IT WILL BE A GUSTY PERIOD
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

AFTER A LULL IN THE ACTION FRIDAY...ANOTHER FRONT WILL SPREAD SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. YET
ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES AROUND TUESDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
     STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE.

PZ...GALE WARNING COAST.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL OTHER WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION PLEASE SEE
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML   (ALL LOWERCASE)









000
FXUS66 KSEW 232207
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
307 PM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON
FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND THURSDAY
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. A THIRD FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL TO THE
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RAIN WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS
EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD IS NOW UP TO KING COUNTY...RAIN SHOULD
REACH THE NW INTERIOR BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INLAND THURSDAY MORNING FOR MORE SHOWERS AND BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 5000 FT WITH THE WARM
FRONT...THEN DROP BACK DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY.

THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL AND UNSTABLE ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NE PAC MOVES INLAND. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S. ISOLATED T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRI
AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AND EXIT
EAST FRI NIGHT WITH SHOWERS DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA.

LOOK FOR A BREAK IN THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT IS A LITTLE SLOWER
IN THE MODELS...WHICH IS NOW SLATED TO MOVE INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR ANOTHER WET PERIOD OF WEATHER. 33

.LONG TERM...MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRACKING THROUGH WESTERN WA FOR SCATTERED ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE SUN NIGHT AS A RIDGE START TO BUILD OVER THE PAC NW.

A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY CLIP WESTERN WASHINGTON ON MONDAY FOR A CHANCE
OF RAIN. THE MODELS THEN STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TUE
AND WED FOR WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS AN H5 580 RIDGE OVER WA. THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW IS ALSO TURNING OFFSHORE AND WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO 70S IF THIS PANS OUT. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING REMAINS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE EXCEPTION REMAINS THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST
OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE NEAR OSO WHERE A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THIS RIVER AS A
RESULT OF WATER POOLED BEHIND THE DEBRIS DAM THAT PARTIALLY BLOCKS
THE RIVER.

AT 9 AM...THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH NEAR ARLINGTON WAS
AT 4.7 FT...OR 2980 CFS. THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER
NEAR OSO WAS AT 216.2 FT AT 1684 CFS. THE POOL EAST OF THE SLIDE WAS
282.5 FT THIS MORNING.

A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AROUND 1.00 INCH
OF RAINFALL TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE RISES ON THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER BEGINNING THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LATEST HYDROGRAPH SHOWS THE STILLAGUAMISH NEAR
ARLINGTON CRESTING THURSDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON AROUND 5 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH WASHINGTON
TONIGHT. UPPER FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES IN.
AT THE SURFACE A LOW PRES CENTER WILL APPROACH THE COAST TONIGHT
THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND TONIGHT...GIVING MODERATE
TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTH. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER THIS AFTERNOON TO MVFR AS RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY ALL NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

KSEA...MVFR CEILINGS 2-3K FT. RAIN WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 3SM AT
TIMES TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WIND 10-15 KT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...WARM FRONTAL RAIN BAND IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH. WINDS HAVE
BEEN 15-20 KT OVER INLAND AREAS...MORE IN A FEW SPOTS...SO HAVE
ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL INLAND WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. MODELS HAD SOME LOW END GALE WINDS ON THE COAST SO HAVE
ISSUED A GALE WARNING THERE. GENERALLY IT WILL BE A GUSTY PERIOD
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

AFTER A LULL IN THE ACTION FRIDAY...ANOTHER FRONT WILL SPREAD SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. YET
ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES AROUND TUESDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
     STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE.

PZ...GALE WARNING COAST.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL OTHER WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION PLEASE SEE
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML   (ALL LOWERCASE)






000
FXUS66 KOTX 232129
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
204 PM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Occasional precipitation chances, breezy conditions and relatively
cool temperatures dominate the weather pattern. The next organized
storm system will bring steady light rain late tonight and into
Thursday, followed by a threat of more scattered showers, and
perhaps some thunder, Thursday afternoon. Showers will remain a
threat into the weekend, before a relative lull comes for the
start of the new work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday...The forecast area is in the grip of a
showery regime this afternoon as an exiting upper level wave
provides enough lift to work with some surface based instability
generating scattered showers...some with small hail. It is not out
of the question that a brief thunderstorm or two may pop up during
the early evening pre-sunset hours over the Palouse and Idaho
Panhandle. After sunset most of this activity should die
down...especially across the northern tier zones...however the
next organized and strong pacific storm is already moving onshore
with regional radar suggesting an incipient warm frontal
precipitation shield forming along the Oregon/Washington border.

Models are in good agreement with the evolution of this system. A
warm front will form and consolidate west to east over the
forecast area tonight leading to an onset of light stratiform rain
at all locations...probably the west and south zones this evening
and through the remainder of the area later tonight. By Thursday
morning all of the forecast area will be subject to rain. the
trailing occluded front will likely cross the Cascades and bring
some drying to the deep basin zones after 9 am or so as some
downslope effect kicks in...with a tapering to showers in the
eastern basin late in the morning. This will not be the end of it
though...cooling aloft from the approach of the trough driving
the occluded front combined with potential sunbreaks over much of
the region after the morning rain shield moves out will conspire
to produce scattered to numerous convective showers and a decent
potential for isolated thunderstorms east of a line from Omak to
Lewiston during the afternoon hours. Only the deep basin/Cascades
lee zones will be effectively done with any significant
precipitation by afternoon. Breezy conditions will once again
develop over the exposed terrain of the basin with wind gusts near
30 mph in the well mixed post frontal air mass. Temperatures on
Thursday will be heavily influenced by mixing over the basin and
heavily influenced by continuing precipitation over the
orographically influenced northeast mountains and Idaho
Panhandle...suggesting near or slightly above normal in the deep
basin to below normal in the northeast and panhandle zones.
/Fugazzi

Thursday night through Saturday...An upper level trough centered
just off the WA/OR coast Thursday night will slowly move across
the Inland Northwest Friday and Saturday. A stronger disturbance
embedded within this trough will drop well south of the area into
California...but some of this moisture will get picked up in the
southerly flow ahead of the trough into the Blue Mountains,
Camas Prairie, and Idaho Panhandle clipping far Eastern
Washington. This will keep the highest coverage of showers in
these areas with low level upslope flow into the high terrain
further favoring high POPs. Elsewhere isolated to scattered
shower coverage is expected mainly over the mountains due to
terrain forcing. Overall shower coverage will be greatest during
afternoon/early evening hours when the atmosphere is moderately
unstable. JW

Saturday night through Wednesday...Cluttered and progressive zonal
flow that amplifies ever so slightly on Monday continues to keep
Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho generally cooler and
potentially wetter than normal along with persistent intervals of
breezy/gusty winds at least through Monday night. There has been
some model consistency in bringing in and amplifying a ridge of
high pressure for Tuesday and Wednesday with the more favored
ECMWF solution not only amplifying the ridge more but holding it
in place longer through that next workweek which would suggest a
nice warming and drying trend. /Pelatti


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: An upper level trough with an embedded weak disturbance
and moderate instability will promote showery conditions today.
The eastern TAF sites will be subject to scattered -SHRA through
00-02Z with occasional brief MVFR ceilings in shower cores.
isolated thunderstorms are possible manly over the northeast
washington and north Idaho mountains...but some thunderstorms
may break out near the KGEG vicinity TAF sites between 20Z and
01Z. The KEAT and KMWH TAF sites will benefit from a rain shadow
fro only small chances of a brief shower. After 03Z from west to
east a stronger Pacific storm system will bring lowering ceilings
and an increasing chance of rain with MVFR ceilings to all TAFsites
by 12Z Thursday. /MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        40  58  38  54  37  56 /  80 100  40  40  30  20
Coeur d`Alene  39  53  37  53  36  55 /  70 100  70  50  50  40
Pullman        42  55  39  50  36  53 /  70 100  50  50  50  30
Lewiston       46  62  44  55  42  59 /  50 100  60  70  50  30
Colville       37  59  35  61  38  61 /  70 100  60  40  20  30
Sandpoint      38  51  36  54  38  54 /  70 100  80  50  50  50
Kellogg        37  50  36  52  36  50 /  70 100  70  70  60  60
Moses Lake     44  64  40  61  39  63 /  80  70  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      45  63  43  61  41  62 /  70  60  10  10  10  10
Omak           39  62  36  62  34  62 /  80 100  10  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 232120
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
220 PM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINED DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC RIDES ALONG THE FRONT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING FOR CONTINUED FAIRLY HEAVY RAIN AND
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL
APPROACH VANCOUVER ISLAND TODAY THEN STALL NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND AND
WEAKEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE PARENT UPPER LOW OR TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTH TOWARD CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING ONSHORE AND THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING FOR
MORE SHOWERS. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS TRANSITIONED TO A WARM
FRONT REMAINED DRAPED OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND A GOOD PART OF
NORTHWEST OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS NOW MERGING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE CLOUD SHIELD FROM THE MAIN COLD FRONT WITH THE
NEXT APPROACHING STRONG LOW.

THIS NEXT STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO OUR AREA
TONIGHT...AND THE MODELS HAVE SOME PRETTY DECENT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WITH IT. IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING...BUT IT
WILL BE QUITE WET. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING OF 1 TO
2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
0.5 TO 1 INCH IN THE VALLEYS.

SNOW LEVELS ARE SLOW TO RISE IN THE CASCADES AHEAD OF AND WITH THE
WARM FRONT...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
WITH A BIT HIGHER SNOW LEVEL...CLOSER TO 5000 FEET. THUS IT WILL
BEGIN RAINING TONIGHT AT THE PASSES...BUT SKI RESORT ELEVATIONS
COULD STILL GET SOME DECENT AMOUNTS AGAIN TONIGHT.

THE ASSOCIATED 995 MB LOW WILL APPROACH VANCOUVER ISLAND LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...THEN STALL NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND AND SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH GRADIENT ALONG
OUR COAST FOR GALES IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND FAIRLY STRONG WINDS
ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP...BUT SOME HEADLANDS MAY GET CLOSE.

WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
MODEL LIFTED INDEX VALUES LOOK A LITTLE WEAK FOR THUNDER BUT WE
SHOULD AT LEAST SEE SOME SMALL HAIL...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A
BIT OF A CAP AT 700 MB AS THE MAIN COLDER AIR ALOFT IS STILL
OFFSHORE. ON FRIDAY THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON AND THUNDER CHANCES LOOK A
BIT BETTER AS TEMPS AT 500 MB FALL TO MINUS 28 DEG C.

WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES AND THERE IS NOT MUCH UPPER RIDGING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
THE NEXT STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A TRANSITION TO SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY
SUNDAY BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRUSH
THE FCST AREA WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON MON...BUT THE TREND
WILL BE TOWARD DRIER WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
PAC NW. RIGHT NOW...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT TUE WILL BE WARM
AND DRY WITH THE RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...AND HIGH TEMPS WERE RAISED
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LATEST FCST PACKAGE. MODEL UNCERTAINTY BEGINS
TO INCREASE WED...AS THE 12Z GFS AND SOME OF ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE
THAT A TROF OVER THE NE PAC WILL SPLIT...WITH THE NORTHERN ENERGY
PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW WED AS AN OPEN TROF. THE 12Z ECMWF MAINTAINS
A NE PAC CLOSED LOW THAT HARDLY MOVES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...ALLOWING RIDGING TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE PAC NW FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ON WED DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY. PYLE
&&

.AVIATION...GRADUALLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
BEST CONDITIONS ARE S OF KSLE...WHERE AREAS OF VFR WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL 00Z...THEN MVFR SPREADING INTO THOSE AREAS. MTNS/PASSES REMAIN
OBSCURED. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH GUST 35
TO 45 KT ALONG COAST/OVER COAST RANGE AFTER 02Z. WILL SEE BREEZY
CONDITIONS INLAND AS WELL...BUT NOT AS STRONG. COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
PUSH TO COAST AROUND 12Z TO 14Z THU...AND THEN TO CASCADES BY 17Z.
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING AT THAT TIME. ROCKEY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR WITH BRIEF BOUTS OF VFR CIGS FOR NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...BUT GENERALLY MVFR AFTER 00Z AS RAIN INCREASES. MVFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WITH TURN TO SW TO
W WINDS AROUND 15Z THU. ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...A DEVELOPING 990 MB LOW PRES WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
VANCOUVER ISL OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. WARM FRONT NOW LIFTING ACROSS
THE N ORE/S WASH COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTY
30 TO 40 KT THIS EVENING.

THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST LATER
TONIGHT. WILL HAVE SOLID S WIND 25 TO 35 KT...WITH 35 TO 45 KT WIND
GUSTS LIKELY...PRIMARILY WITHIN 20 NM OF COAST. GALE FORCE WINDS
SHOULD END AROUND DAYBREAK THU...BUT WILL KEEP THE KEEP THE CURRENT
TIMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE GALE HEADLINE AS IS...IN CASE THIS SYSTEM
SLOWS DOWN A FEW HOURS. ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOUTH WIND GUSTS TO INCREASE INTO THE 30 TO
35 KT RANGE.

SEAS RUNNING 10 TO 13 FT TODAY...BUT WITH INCREASING WINDS LATER
TONIGHT...CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL BUILD. WILL SEE SEAS PEAK AT
15 TO 17 FT TONIGHT INTO THU AM. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON THU
AND THU EVENING.ROCKEY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...GALE WARNING NOW THROUGH 11 AM THU ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
  TONIGHT AND THU.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KPQR 232120
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
220 PM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINED DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC RIDES ALONG THE FRONT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING FOR CONTINUED FAIRLY HEAVY RAIN AND
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL
APPROACH VANCOUVER ISLAND TODAY THEN STALL NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND AND
WEAKEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE PARENT UPPER LOW OR TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTH TOWARD CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING ONSHORE AND THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING FOR
MORE SHOWERS. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS TRANSITIONED TO A WARM
FRONT REMAINED DRAPED OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND A GOOD PART OF
NORTHWEST OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS NOW MERGING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE CLOUD SHIELD FROM THE MAIN COLD FRONT WITH THE
NEXT APPROACHING STRONG LOW.

THIS NEXT STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO OUR AREA
TONIGHT...AND THE MODELS HAVE SOME PRETTY DECENT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WITH IT. IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING...BUT IT
WILL BE QUITE WET. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING OF 1 TO
2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
0.5 TO 1 INCH IN THE VALLEYS.

SNOW LEVELS ARE SLOW TO RISE IN THE CASCADES AHEAD OF AND WITH THE
WARM FRONT...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
WITH A BIT HIGHER SNOW LEVEL...CLOSER TO 5000 FEET. THUS IT WILL
BEGIN RAINING TONIGHT AT THE PASSES...BUT SKI RESORT ELEVATIONS
COULD STILL GET SOME DECENT AMOUNTS AGAIN TONIGHT.

THE ASSOCIATED 995 MB LOW WILL APPROACH VANCOUVER ISLAND LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...THEN STALL NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND AND SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH GRADIENT ALONG
OUR COAST FOR GALES IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND FAIRLY STRONG WINDS
ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP...BUT SOME HEADLANDS MAY GET CLOSE.

WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
MODEL LIFTED INDEX VALUES LOOK A LITTLE WEAK FOR THUNDER BUT WE
SHOULD AT LEAST SEE SOME SMALL HAIL...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A
BIT OF A CAP AT 700 MB AS THE MAIN COLDER AIR ALOFT IS STILL
OFFSHORE. ON FRIDAY THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON AND THUNDER CHANCES LOOK A
BIT BETTER AS TEMPS AT 500 MB FALL TO MINUS 28 DEG C.

WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES AND THERE IS NOT MUCH UPPER RIDGING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
THE NEXT STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A TRANSITION TO SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY
SUNDAY BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRUSH
THE FCST AREA WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON MON...BUT THE TREND
WILL BE TOWARD DRIER WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
PAC NW. RIGHT NOW...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT TUE WILL BE WARM
AND DRY WITH THE RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...AND HIGH TEMPS WERE RAISED
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LATEST FCST PACKAGE. MODEL UNCERTAINTY BEGINS
TO INCREASE WED...AS THE 12Z GFS AND SOME OF ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE
THAT A TROF OVER THE NE PAC WILL SPLIT...WITH THE NORTHERN ENERGY
PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW WED AS AN OPEN TROF. THE 12Z ECMWF MAINTAINS
A NE PAC CLOSED LOW THAT HARDLY MOVES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...ALLOWING RIDGING TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE PAC NW FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ON WED DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY. PYLE
&&

.AVIATION...GRADUALLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
BEST CONDITIONS ARE S OF KSLE...WHERE AREAS OF VFR WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL 00Z...THEN MVFR SPREADING INTO THOSE AREAS. MTNS/PASSES REMAIN
OBSCURED. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH GUST 35
TO 45 KT ALONG COAST/OVER COAST RANGE AFTER 02Z. WILL SEE BREEZY
CONDITIONS INLAND AS WELL...BUT NOT AS STRONG. COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
PUSH TO COAST AROUND 12Z TO 14Z THU...AND THEN TO CASCADES BY 17Z.
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING AT THAT TIME. ROCKEY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR WITH BRIEF BOUTS OF VFR CIGS FOR NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...BUT GENERALLY MVFR AFTER 00Z AS RAIN INCREASES. MVFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WITH TURN TO SW TO
W WINDS AROUND 15Z THU. ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...A DEVELOPING 990 MB LOW PRES WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
VANCOUVER ISL OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. WARM FRONT NOW LIFTING ACROSS
THE N ORE/S WASH COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTY
30 TO 40 KT THIS EVENING.

THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST LATER
TONIGHT. WILL HAVE SOLID S WIND 25 TO 35 KT...WITH 35 TO 45 KT WIND
GUSTS LIKELY...PRIMARILY WITHIN 20 NM OF COAST. GALE FORCE WINDS
SHOULD END AROUND DAYBREAK THU...BUT WILL KEEP THE KEEP THE CURRENT
TIMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE GALE HEADLINE AS IS...IN CASE THIS SYSTEM
SLOWS DOWN A FEW HOURS. ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOUTH WIND GUSTS TO INCREASE INTO THE 30 TO
35 KT RANGE.

SEAS RUNNING 10 TO 13 FT TODAY...BUT WITH INCREASING WINDS LATER
TONIGHT...CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL BUILD. WILL SEE SEAS PEAK AT
15 TO 17 FT TONIGHT INTO THU AM. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON THU
AND THU EVENING.ROCKEY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...GALE WARNING NOW THROUGH 11 AM THU ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
  TONIGHT AND THU.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KOTX 231703
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1003 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Occasional precipitation chances, breezy conditions and relatively
cool temperatures dominate the weather pattern. Passing rain and
snow chances Wednesday are followed by steadier rain chances late
Wednesday night into Thursday, followed by a threat of more
scattered showers, and perhaps some thunder, Thursday afternoon.
Showers will remain a threat into the weekend, before a relative
lull comes for the start of the new work week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of Today...The forecast area is underneath an upper level
trough today...and while there are no organized storm systems over
the area...a weak disturbance is tracking through the eastern
zones this morning. The air mass remains moist with moderate
instability owing to a cool pool aloft. Mid level flow is
westerly...producing a noticeable rain shadow in the Cascades lee
area with scattered rain and mountain snow showers increasing in
areal coverage with the rising terrain over the east. This
situation will largely hold static through today with showers
common and frequent over the Idaho Panhandle...and merely isolated
over the deep basin. Instability due to the cool air over surface
diurnal heating will peak during the early afternoon with warming
aloft as the trough is replaced bu a weak ridge later today and
this evening. A random weak thunderstorm cannot be ruled out this
afternoon over the northeast mountains and north Idaho panhandle
but the threat is not great. Temperatures will remain below
normal. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: An upper level trough with an embedded weak disturbance
and moderate instability will promote showery conditions today.
The eastern TAF sites will be subject to scattered -SHRA through
00-02Z with occasional brief MVFR ceilings in shower cores.
isolated thunderstorms are possible manly over the northeast
washington and north Idaho mountains...but some thunderstorms
may break out near the KGEG vicinity TAF sites between 20Z and
01Z. The KEAT and KMWH TAF sites will benefit from a rain shadow
fro only small chances of a brief shower. After 03Z from west to
east a stronger Pacific storm system will bring lowering ceilings
and an increasing chance of rain with MVFR ceilings to all TAFsites
by 12Z Thursday. /MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  39  55  38  54  37 /  50  70 100  40  40  20
Coeur d`Alene  50  38  53  37  53  37 /  60  60 100  70  50  20
Pullman        50  41  54  39  50  37 /  60  70 100  50  50  20
Lewiston       56  45  60  44  55  42 /  50  50 100  60  70  20
Colville       57  35  59  35  61  36 /  50  50 100  60  40  20
Sandpoint      49  36  51  36  54  37 /  60  50 100  80  50  30
Kellogg        45  36  50  36  52  36 /  80  60 100  70  70  40
Moses Lake     61  44  65  40  61  38 /  20  70  70  10  10  20
Wenatchee      60  45  64  43  61  41 /  20  60  70  10  10  20
Omak           59  39  62  36  62  35 /  20  50  80  10  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 231640
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
939 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY AS MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC RIDES ALONG THE FRONT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING FOR CONTINUED RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION
SNOW. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH VANCOUVER ISLAND
TODAY THEN STALL NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND AND WEAKEN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE PARENT UPPER LOW OR TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH TOWARD
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING
ONSHORE AND THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING FOR MORE
SHOWERS. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...HAD DECENT SNOWS IN THE NORTH CASCADE ZONES OVERNIGHT
AND WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL
STARTING TO RISE LATER TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED OVER
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND A GOOD PART OF NORTHWEST OREGON AND IS
TRANSITIONING TO A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THUS EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY...WITH THE LEAST COVERAGE OR AMOUNT DOWN NEAR LANE COUNTY.

THE NEXT STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT...
AND THE MODELS HAVE SOME PRETTY DECENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. IT WILL
NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING...BUT IT WILL BE QUITE WET. SNOW
LEVELS ARE SLOW TO RISE...SO WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT WITH A BIT HIGHER SNOW LEVEL...CLOSER TO 5000 FEET. THUS
IT WILL BEGIN RAINING TONIGHT AT THE PASSES...BUT SKI RESORT
ELEVATIONS COULD STILL GET SOME DECENT AMOUNTS AGAIN TONIGHT.

THE ASSOCIATED 995 MB LOW WILL APPROACH VANCOUVER ISLAND LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...THEN STALL NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND AND SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH GRADIENT ALONG
OUR COAST FOR GALES IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND FAIRLY STRONG WINDS
ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP...BUT SOME HEADLANDS MAY GET CLOSE.

WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MODEL
LI VALUES LOOK A LITTLE WEAK FOR THUNDER BUT WE SHOULD AT LEAST SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL. ON FRIDAY THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH AND THUNDER CHANCES LOOK A BIT BETTER. WILL ADDRESS THAT THIS
AFTERNOON. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND
FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND
IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START
NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...BUT RECENT TRENDS IN MODELS
GIVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.
&&

.AVIATION...MOIST AND DANK TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE. WARM FRONT
PUSHING INTO REGION WILL MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. S OF KSLE OVER INTERIOR...CIGS RUNNING MORE TOWARDS
LOWER VFR THIS AM...BUT CIGS THERE WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR AS
RAIN INCREASES. MTNS CONTINUALLY OBSCURED...SO NOT GREAT DAY FOR
FLYING. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 45 KT ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
COAST RANGE AFTER 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LITTLE CHANGE TODAY...AS MVFR WITH BRIEF BOUTS
OF VFR CIGS. RAIN WILL INCREASE IN AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST TONIGHT. ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...A DEVELOPING 990 MB LOW PRES WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
VANCOUVER ISL OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND THIS EVENING... WITH
SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE GUSTS DEVELOPING...MAINLY S OF TILLAMOOK.

THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST THIS
EVENING...CAUSING A COASTAL JET TO INTENSIFY WITH SOLID SOUTH 35 TO
45 KT WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST. GALE FORCE WINDS
SHOULD END AROUND DAYBREAK THU...BUT WILL KEEP THE KEEP THE CURRENT
TIMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE GALE HEADLINE AS IS...IN CASE THIS SYSTEM
SLOWS DOWN A FEW HOURS. ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOUTH WIND GUSTS TO INCREASE INTO THE
30 TO 35 KT RANGE.

SEAS RUNNING 10 TO 12 FT THIS AM...BUT WITH INCREASING WINDS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL BUILD. WILL SEE SEAS
BUILD TO 15 TO 17 FT TONIGHT AND HOLD INTO THU AM. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON THU AND THU EVENING. ROCKEY.
&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE
     3500 FEET AND UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY MORNING ABOVE 5000
     FEET FOR NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE
     3500 FEET AND UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY MORNING ABOVE 5000
     FEET FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...GALE WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THU AM ON ALL
 COASTAL WATERS.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KPQR 231640
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
939 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY AS MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC RIDES ALONG THE FRONT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING FOR CONTINUED RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION
SNOW. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH VANCOUVER ISLAND
TODAY THEN STALL NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND AND WEAKEN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE PARENT UPPER LOW OR TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH TOWARD
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING
ONSHORE AND THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING FOR MORE
SHOWERS. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...HAD DECENT SNOWS IN THE NORTH CASCADE ZONES OVERNIGHT
AND WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL
STARTING TO RISE LATER TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED OVER
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND A GOOD PART OF NORTHWEST OREGON AND IS
TRANSITIONING TO A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THUS EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY...WITH THE LEAST COVERAGE OR AMOUNT DOWN NEAR LANE COUNTY.

THE NEXT STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT...
AND THE MODELS HAVE SOME PRETTY DECENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. IT WILL
NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING...BUT IT WILL BE QUITE WET. SNOW
LEVELS ARE SLOW TO RISE...SO WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT WITH A BIT HIGHER SNOW LEVEL...CLOSER TO 5000 FEET. THUS
IT WILL BEGIN RAINING TONIGHT AT THE PASSES...BUT SKI RESORT
ELEVATIONS COULD STILL GET SOME DECENT AMOUNTS AGAIN TONIGHT.

THE ASSOCIATED 995 MB LOW WILL APPROACH VANCOUVER ISLAND LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...THEN STALL NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND AND SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH GRADIENT ALONG
OUR COAST FOR GALES IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND FAIRLY STRONG WINDS
ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP...BUT SOME HEADLANDS MAY GET CLOSE.

WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MODEL
LI VALUES LOOK A LITTLE WEAK FOR THUNDER BUT WE SHOULD AT LEAST SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL. ON FRIDAY THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH AND THUNDER CHANCES LOOK A BIT BETTER. WILL ADDRESS THAT THIS
AFTERNOON. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND
FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND
IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START
NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...BUT RECENT TRENDS IN MODELS
GIVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.
&&

.AVIATION...MOIST AND DANK TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE. WARM FRONT
PUSHING INTO REGION WILL MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. S OF KSLE OVER INTERIOR...CIGS RUNNING MORE TOWARDS
LOWER VFR THIS AM...BUT CIGS THERE WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR AS
RAIN INCREASES. MTNS CONTINUALLY OBSCURED...SO NOT GREAT DAY FOR
FLYING. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 45 KT ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
COAST RANGE AFTER 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LITTLE CHANGE TODAY...AS MVFR WITH BRIEF BOUTS
OF VFR CIGS. RAIN WILL INCREASE IN AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST TONIGHT. ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...A DEVELOPING 990 MB LOW PRES WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
VANCOUVER ISL OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND THIS EVENING... WITH
SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE GUSTS DEVELOPING...MAINLY S OF TILLAMOOK.

THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST THIS
EVENING...CAUSING A COASTAL JET TO INTENSIFY WITH SOLID SOUTH 35 TO
45 KT WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST. GALE FORCE WINDS
SHOULD END AROUND DAYBREAK THU...BUT WILL KEEP THE KEEP THE CURRENT
TIMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE GALE HEADLINE AS IS...IN CASE THIS SYSTEM
SLOWS DOWN A FEW HOURS. ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOUTH WIND GUSTS TO INCREASE INTO THE
30 TO 35 KT RANGE.

SEAS RUNNING 10 TO 12 FT THIS AM...BUT WITH INCREASING WINDS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL BUILD. WILL SEE SEAS
BUILD TO 15 TO 17 FT TONIGHT AND HOLD INTO THU AM. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON THU AND THU EVENING. ROCKEY.
&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE
     3500 FEET AND UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY MORNING ABOVE 5000
     FEET FOR NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE
     3500 FEET AND UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY MORNING ABOVE 5000
     FEET FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...GALE WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THU AM ON ALL
 COASTAL WATERS.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KPQR 231640
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
939 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY AS MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC RIDES ALONG THE FRONT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING FOR CONTINUED RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION
SNOW. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH VANCOUVER ISLAND
TODAY THEN STALL NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND AND WEAKEN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE PARENT UPPER LOW OR TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH TOWARD
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING
ONSHORE AND THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING FOR MORE
SHOWERS. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...HAD DECENT SNOWS IN THE NORTH CASCADE ZONES OVERNIGHT
AND WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL
STARTING TO RISE LATER TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED OVER
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND A GOOD PART OF NORTHWEST OREGON AND IS
TRANSITIONING TO A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THUS EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY...WITH THE LEAST COVERAGE OR AMOUNT DOWN NEAR LANE COUNTY.

THE NEXT STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT...
AND THE MODELS HAVE SOME PRETTY DECENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. IT WILL
NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING...BUT IT WILL BE QUITE WET. SNOW
LEVELS ARE SLOW TO RISE...SO WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT WITH A BIT HIGHER SNOW LEVEL...CLOSER TO 5000 FEET. THUS
IT WILL BEGIN RAINING TONIGHT AT THE PASSES...BUT SKI RESORT
ELEVATIONS COULD STILL GET SOME DECENT AMOUNTS AGAIN TONIGHT.

THE ASSOCIATED 995 MB LOW WILL APPROACH VANCOUVER ISLAND LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...THEN STALL NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND AND SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH GRADIENT ALONG
OUR COAST FOR GALES IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND FAIRLY STRONG WINDS
ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP...BUT SOME HEADLANDS MAY GET CLOSE.

WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MODEL
LI VALUES LOOK A LITTLE WEAK FOR THUNDER BUT WE SHOULD AT LEAST SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL. ON FRIDAY THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH AND THUNDER CHANCES LOOK A BIT BETTER. WILL ADDRESS THAT THIS
AFTERNOON. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND
FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND
IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START
NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...BUT RECENT TRENDS IN MODELS
GIVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.
&&

.AVIATION...MOIST AND DANK TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE. WARM FRONT
PUSHING INTO REGION WILL MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. S OF KSLE OVER INTERIOR...CIGS RUNNING MORE TOWARDS
LOWER VFR THIS AM...BUT CIGS THERE WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR AS
RAIN INCREASES. MTNS CONTINUALLY OBSCURED...SO NOT GREAT DAY FOR
FLYING. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 45 KT ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
COAST RANGE AFTER 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LITTLE CHANGE TODAY...AS MVFR WITH BRIEF BOUTS
OF VFR CIGS. RAIN WILL INCREASE IN AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST TONIGHT. ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...A DEVELOPING 990 MB LOW PRES WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
VANCOUVER ISL OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND THIS EVENING... WITH
SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE GUSTS DEVELOPING...MAINLY S OF TILLAMOOK.

THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST THIS
EVENING...CAUSING A COASTAL JET TO INTENSIFY WITH SOLID SOUTH 35 TO
45 KT WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST. GALE FORCE WINDS
SHOULD END AROUND DAYBREAK THU...BUT WILL KEEP THE KEEP THE CURRENT
TIMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE GALE HEADLINE AS IS...IN CASE THIS SYSTEM
SLOWS DOWN A FEW HOURS. ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOUTH WIND GUSTS TO INCREASE INTO THE
30 TO 35 KT RANGE.

SEAS RUNNING 10 TO 12 FT THIS AM...BUT WITH INCREASING WINDS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL BUILD. WILL SEE SEAS
BUILD TO 15 TO 17 FT TONIGHT AND HOLD INTO THU AM. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON THU AND THU EVENING. ROCKEY.
&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE
     3500 FEET AND UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY MORNING ABOVE 5000
     FEET FOR NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE
     3500 FEET AND UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY MORNING ABOVE 5000
     FEET FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...GALE WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THU AM ON ALL
 COASTAL WATERS.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KPQR 231640
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
939 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY AS MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC RIDES ALONG THE FRONT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING FOR CONTINUED RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION
SNOW. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH VANCOUVER ISLAND
TODAY THEN STALL NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND AND WEAKEN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE PARENT UPPER LOW OR TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH TOWARD
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING
ONSHORE AND THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING FOR MORE
SHOWERS. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...HAD DECENT SNOWS IN THE NORTH CASCADE ZONES OVERNIGHT
AND WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL
STARTING TO RISE LATER TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED OVER
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND A GOOD PART OF NORTHWEST OREGON AND IS
TRANSITIONING TO A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THUS EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY...WITH THE LEAST COVERAGE OR AMOUNT DOWN NEAR LANE COUNTY.

THE NEXT STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT...
AND THE MODELS HAVE SOME PRETTY DECENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. IT WILL
NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING...BUT IT WILL BE QUITE WET. SNOW
LEVELS ARE SLOW TO RISE...SO WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT WITH A BIT HIGHER SNOW LEVEL...CLOSER TO 5000 FEET. THUS
IT WILL BEGIN RAINING TONIGHT AT THE PASSES...BUT SKI RESORT
ELEVATIONS COULD STILL GET SOME DECENT AMOUNTS AGAIN TONIGHT.

THE ASSOCIATED 995 MB LOW WILL APPROACH VANCOUVER ISLAND LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...THEN STALL NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND AND SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH GRADIENT ALONG
OUR COAST FOR GALES IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND FAIRLY STRONG WINDS
ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP...BUT SOME HEADLANDS MAY GET CLOSE.

WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MODEL
LI VALUES LOOK A LITTLE WEAK FOR THUNDER BUT WE SHOULD AT LEAST SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL. ON FRIDAY THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH AND THUNDER CHANCES LOOK A BIT BETTER. WILL ADDRESS THAT THIS
AFTERNOON. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND
FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND
IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START
NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...BUT RECENT TRENDS IN MODELS
GIVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.
&&

.AVIATION...MOIST AND DANK TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE. WARM FRONT
PUSHING INTO REGION WILL MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. S OF KSLE OVER INTERIOR...CIGS RUNNING MORE TOWARDS
LOWER VFR THIS AM...BUT CIGS THERE WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR AS
RAIN INCREASES. MTNS CONTINUALLY OBSCURED...SO NOT GREAT DAY FOR
FLYING. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 45 KT ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
COAST RANGE AFTER 02Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LITTLE CHANGE TODAY...AS MVFR WITH BRIEF BOUTS
OF VFR CIGS. RAIN WILL INCREASE IN AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST TONIGHT. ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...A DEVELOPING 990 MB LOW PRES WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
VANCOUVER ISL OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND THIS EVENING... WITH
SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE GUSTS DEVELOPING...MAINLY S OF TILLAMOOK.

THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST THIS
EVENING...CAUSING A COASTAL JET TO INTENSIFY WITH SOLID SOUTH 35 TO
45 KT WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST. GALE FORCE WINDS
SHOULD END AROUND DAYBREAK THU...BUT WILL KEEP THE KEEP THE CURRENT
TIMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE GALE HEADLINE AS IS...IN CASE THIS SYSTEM
SLOWS DOWN A FEW HOURS. ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOUTH WIND GUSTS TO INCREASE INTO THE
30 TO 35 KT RANGE.

SEAS RUNNING 10 TO 12 FT THIS AM...BUT WITH INCREASING WINDS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL BUILD. WILL SEE SEAS
BUILD TO 15 TO 17 FT TONIGHT AND HOLD INTO THU AM. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON THU AND THU EVENING. ROCKEY.
&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE
     3500 FEET AND UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY MORNING ABOVE 5000
     FEET FOR NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE
     3500 FEET AND UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY MORNING ABOVE 5000
     FEET FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...GALE WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THU AM ON ALL
 COASTAL WATERS.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KSEW 231628
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON
FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INLAND THURSDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. A THIRD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE
ORGANIZED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN WA THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL THEN
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
INTO THE REGION. MODELS SHOW RAIN SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INLAND THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MORE SHOWERS AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS
WILL RAISE TO AROUND 5000 FT WITH THE WARM FRONT TODAY...THEN DROP
BACK DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.

THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL AND UNSTABLE ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NE PAC MOVES INLAND. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AGAIN WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL OVER THE WEST
COAST WILL KEEP SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON ON SATURDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF ORGANIZED RAINFALL. ONSHORE FLOW AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON
SUNDAY WILL KEEP SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE COAST AND THE MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MON OR MON NIGHT WITH
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HINTING AT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION ON TUE FOR DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING REMAINS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE EXCEPTION REMAINS THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST
OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE NEAR OSO WHERE A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THIS RIVER AS A
RESULT OF WATER POOLED BEHIND THE DEBRIS DAM THAT PARTIALLY BLOCKS
THE RIVER.

AT 9 AM...THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH NEAR ARLINGTON WAS
AT 4.7 FT...OR 2980 CFS. THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER
NEAR OSO WAS AT 216.2 FT AT 1684 CFS. THE POOL EAST OF THE SLIDE WAS
282.5 FT THIS MORNING.

A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AROUND 1.00 INCH
OF RAINFALL TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE RISES ON THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER BEGINNING THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LATEST HYDROGRAPH SHOWS THE STILLAGUAMISH NEAR
ARLINGTON CRESTING THURSDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON AROUND 5 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL GIVE MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY. UPPER FLOW WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES SOUTH TO NORTH. AT THE
SURFACE A LOW PRES CENTER WILL APPROACH THE COAST TODAY THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND TONIGHT...GIVING MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS.

GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS OR NO CEILINGS...EXCEPT OCCASIONAL MVFR IN
SHOWERS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER THIS AFTERNOON
AS RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY ALL NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

KSEA...VFR TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF TRANSIENT MVFR IN SHOWERS. MVFR
CEILINGS 2-3K FT AFTER 02Z OR SO. RAIN WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 3SM
AT TIMES TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WIND 10-15 KT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...AN APPROACHING FRONT AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
ARE KEEPING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS GOING ON THE COAST
AND IN PUGET SOUND. ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS TODAY.

GRADIENTS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. WINDS COULD TOUCH GALE ON THE COAST. A GALE
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST AND WEST ENTRANCE TONIGHT. WILL
DECIDE ABOUT THE WATCH AND OTHER ADVISORIES WITH THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST.

AFTER A LULL IN THE ACTION FRIDAY...ANOTHER FRONT WILL SPREAD SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
     STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST...WEST ENTRANCE...AND PUGET SOUND.
     GALE WATCH COAST AND WEST ENTRANCE TONIGHT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION PLEASE SEE
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML   (ALL LOWERCASE)






000
FXUS66 KOTX 231140
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
440 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Occasional precipitation chances, breezy conditions and relatively
cool temperatures dominate the weather pattern. Passing rain and
snow chances Wednesday are followed by steadier rain chances late
Wednesday night into Thursday, followed by a threat of more
scattered showers, and perhaps some thunder, Thursday afternoon.
Showers will remain a threat into the weekend, before a relative
lull comes for the start of the new work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight: A threat of rain and snow showers returns
to the Inland NW today, while steadier rain develops late tonight.
This morning a tight 500mb shortwave was entering the Cascades,
with weak 850-700mb theta-e ridge leading it into central and
eastern WA and north ID. That latter feature will provide focus
for the moisture and increasing precipitation across the Cascade
crest and the Okanogan to Upper Columbia Basin, spreading into the
eastern third of WA and north ID this morning. There is some
disagreement in how quickly precipitation develops or how
widespread it will actually be. The HRRR actually shows very
little in that way of significant precipitation; however the
GFS/NAM/EC/SREF are more generous. At 930Z clouds were starting
to thicken near the Cascades and expand east, while a few light
radar returns were developing east of Othello. I don`t see any
evidence that anything is actually reaching the ground at this
time, but leaning toward the more dominant model solutions suggest
this will change. So I gradually increase PoPs to likely through
the morning, especially across southeast WA to the central
Panhandle.

For late this morning to early afternoon the 500mb shortwave
comes on the heels of the 850/700mb wave, before shifting into
Montana in the late afternoon. With 500mb temperatures in the core
of this disturbance in the -25 to -31 C range and a swath of
100-200 J/kg of CAPE and marginally negative LI values, this will
mean a continued shower threat across the eastern third of of WA
and north ID this afternoon, before dissipating in coverage by
early evening. I included a slight chance of thunder toward the
northeast mountains, but even then I think any thunder that
develops would be more isolated in nature, if any develops at all.

Looking at current wet-bulb zero heights and regional temperatures,
the precipitation will have a modest opportunity to fall as snow
across a large portion of the region, save for the lower Palouse
to the deeper Columbia Basin and the L-C valley. The threat for
more than an inch of snow, however, will remains toward the
Cascades and the Panhandle Mountains, and perhaps toward the
higher Idaho Palouse. The threat for accumulating snow outside of
the mountains will also be limited to early in the day. However
the convective or unstable nature of the atmosphere under the
trough will mean the potential for a rain/snow/graupel/small hail
mix with any showers that occur into the afternoon.

Late tonight into Thursday morning a warm front comes in from the
southwest. This will shift the region to more stable regime.
Strengthening isentropic ascent and subtropical moisture plume
come the warm front as the night wares on. PWATs rise to between
0.50 to 0.75 inches (or ~150-200% of normal). This favors another
swath of precipitation, enveloping much of the region from the
Columbia Basin toward the northern mountains between 04Z-11Z (or
~9 PM to 4 AM). I increased precipitation chances to likely for a
large portion of the region going past 06Z. By this time the
milder air surges in, pushing wet-bulb zero heights and snow
levels up toward 3500-4000 feet around the mountains of northeast
WA and north ID and to around 4500 to 5500 feet elsewhere. In
other words the next system looks to be more of a valley rain and
high mountain snow event. /J. Cote`

Thursday through Friday...Chances are very good that the recent
spurt of wet weather will continue through this period as well.
The latest water vapor and shows a developing baroclinic band
near 150w with a nice tap into sub-tropical moisture per the
blended precipitable water product. Models in very good agreement
that this atmospheric river will slide into SW Washington
Wednesday night and gradually spread northeast through Thursday
morning in the form of a warm front. Precipitation will likely
impact most locations...including the lee of the Cascades due to
moderate isentropic ascent resultant of the mid-level southwest
winds. Most of the stratiform precipitation will fall in the
morning...as the atmospheric river is expected to shift east of
the region by afternoon. Before it shifts east most of the region
will see measurable rainfall with amounts ranging from .20 to .40
inches over most valley locations...with heavier amounts over the
mountains of north Idaho and the Cascade Crest. This bout of rain
will be followed by a weak negatively tilted trough during the
afternoon...somewhat similar to yesterday. Whether or not the
moisture from the morning rain can combine with afternoon heating
to produce deep convection and possible thunderstorms is the
question. Yesterdays window of opportunity was too short to tap
into the moisture and thus we never saw thunderstorms. The
Thursday setup isn`t ideal but it should be a little better than
what we saw. Thus we will continue to mention a chance of
afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. The best chances will
occur east of a line from Republic to Ritzville. Model instability
isn`t supportive of any strong convection as the CAPE values are
too low for strong updrafts.

The threat of thunder will wane Thursday evening...and most of
the area will see a brief drying trend...with one exception. The
upper level trough responsible delivering the atmospheric river
will shift onto the Washington coast by morning...which is
expected to send a shortwave trough in from the southwest. All the
models are showing a similar scenario...with the track of the
shortwave expected to impact the southeast corner of Washington
into NC Idaho...due to the proximity of a low-level theta-e ridge
axis. Moderate rainfall amounts will be possible in this region
with locations such as Lewiston...Pullman...and the Silver Valley
seeing the possibility of up to a quarter inch. Across the
remainder of the forecast area the possibility of significant
rainfall is considerably lower. That notion will likely continue
until afternoon at which time the upper level trough will likely
shift into the Cascades. This should result in diurnally
developing convection...however lapse rates aren`t really all that
impressive. Most of the convection will likely fire over the
mountains due to terrain forcing.

Friday night through Monday...The upper level trough or some
semblances of it will likely remain fixed over the Pacific
Northwest through this period as well. There are no signs of
seeing a good fetch of moisture...or strong synoptic forcing at
least through the weekend. So we are primarily looking at an
unsettled weather pattern with generally diurnally driven shower
activity. Most of the convection will fire near the Cascades and
the Idaho Panhandle. By Monday there is some support for a weak
shortwave ridge. This should lead to slightly drier weather but
based on the amplitude of the ridge...we don`t want to go
completely dry. fx

Monday Night through Wednesday: The extended part of the forecast
which yesterday featured an amplifying ridge, now has gained some
uncertainty. Most recent GFS model runs now have the ridge sliding
further to the east over MT allowing the offshore trough to advect
an abundance of subtropical moisture into our region leading to
increased chances for more precipitation. While the GFS has
trended wetter, the Euro still advertises the ridge remaining
entrenched right over our area keeping the storm track to the
west. This would lead to the dry conditions the models were
showing yesterday. Due to the model uncertainty I did increase
POPs slightly to include the mention of showers for higher
elevation locations along with the eastern third of WA and the
Panhandle. Confidence is not high with this change, but thought it
would be worthwhile to at least move POPs towards climo for the
time being. Other than POPs, not many changes were made to the
period due to lower confidence. Many factors for this portion of
the forecast will depend on the verifying model and will have to
be fine tuned once model agreement is better. Given the models
right now, the active GFS would bring continued wet conditions
with below normal temps while Euro would bring above normal temps
and drier conditions. For the time being we will just have to wait
and see how the models trend over the next few runs. /Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Two systems will impact the Inland NW aviation interests
over the next 24 hours. An unstable upper wave will track across
east WA/north ID this morning and afternoon, bringing scattered
showers. Chances will be best over the eastern TAF sites (GEG to
COE and PUW/LWS). Some light snow may be mixed as well, especially
in the morning. The afternoon may also bring a few thunderstorms,
but the best threat will remain north and east of TAF sites. LCL
MVFR/isolated IFR cigs are possible with showers, especially in
the morning. In addition to precipitation, look for breezy
conditions in the afternoon. The threat of precipitation lulls for
the late afternoon/early evening, however the next system will
begin to move in late this evening and overnight in the form of a
warm front that is expected to lead to steader rain developing
from the south/southwest, after 03-06Z. LCL MVFR cigs will be
possible by this time frame too. /J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  39  55  38  54  37 /  80  70 100  40  40  20
Coeur d`Alene  50  38  53  37  53  37 /  80  60 100  70  50  20
Pullman        50  41  54  39  50  37 /  80  70 100  50  50  20
Lewiston       56  45  60  44  55  42 /  60  50 100  60  70  20
Colville       57  35  59  35  61  36 /  50  50 100  60  40  20
Sandpoint      49  36  51  36  54  37 /  70  50 100  80  50  30
Kellogg        45  36  50  36  52  36 /  80  60 100  70  70  40
Moses Lake     61  44  65  40  61  38 /  20  70  70  10  10  20
Wenatchee      60  45  64  43  61  41 /  20  60  70  10  10  20
Omak           59  39  62  36  62  35 /  20  50  80  10  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 231100
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
400 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING BEFORE A WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO SPREAD RAIN INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON FROM THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND THURSDAY
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. A THIRD FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL TO THE
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN WORKING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
HAVE TAPERED OFF SOMEWHAT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING. THE BREAK WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS RAIN
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING MORE ORGANIZED
RAINFALL TO THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY MORNING.
RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOIST AND
SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE OLYMPICS AND THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADES NEAR MOUNT
RAINIER. THE COAST WILL SEE 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES AND THE INTERIOR UP
TO 0.5 INCHES OVER THE SAME PERIOD. DECENT SOUTHERLY SURFACE
GRADIENTS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE BREEZY WINDS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY
KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. THE GOOD NEWS IS
SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY AND NOT ORGANIZED WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE IN BETWEEN SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL OVER THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INLAND SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF ORGANIZED
RAINFALL. ONSHORE FLOW AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL KEEP
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE COAST AND THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MON OR MON NIGHT WITH MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HINTING AT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON
TUE FOR DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING REMAINS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE EXCEPTION REMAINS THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST
OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE NEAR OSO WHERE A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THIS RIVER AS A
RESULT OF WATER POOLED BEHIND THE DEBRIS DAM THAT PARTIALLY BLOCKS
THE RIVER.

AT 315 AM...THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH NEAR ARLINGTON WAS
AT 4.65 FT...OR 2889 CFS. THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER
NEAR OSO WAS AT 216.4 FT AT 1841 CFS. THE POOL EAST OF THE SLIDE WAS
282.5 FT AT 315 AM THIS MORNING.

A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AROUND 1.00 INCH
OF RAINFALL TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE RISES ON THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...CRESTING THURSDAY EVENING AROUND 10 PM AT
JUST OVER 5 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION...A TROUGH WILL MOVE E OF WRN WA TODAY WITH A BREAK
BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. ANOTHER STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODERATE SW FLOW
ALOFT...BECOMING STRONG TONIGHT. MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
BECOMING STABLE TONIGHT. DECREASING SHOWERS THIS MORNING...THEN
INCREASING RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MIX OF VFR AND
2-3K FT MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING...THEN VFR ABOVE 4K FT. WARM
FRONTAL RAIN TONIGHT SHOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS.

KSEA...VARIABLE CIGS BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR DUE TO SHOWERS THROUGH
16Z...THEN MOSTLY VFR. MVFR CIGS AND VIS SHOULD DOMINATE TONIGHT
WITH STEADY RAIN. S WIND 4-8 KT...BECOMING SW 10-15 W/ GUSTS TO 25
KT LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN WINDS TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
VARY IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE DAY TOPPING 20 KT AT TIMES W/ SWELL
AROUND 10 FT. THEREFORE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAIN UP FOR THE
COAST. WINDS ELSEWHERE BELOW 20 KT TODAY. A 990 MB LOW WILL TRACK NE
OUTSIDE THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND TONIGHT. THE
TRACK IS CLOSE ENOUGH SO THAT HIGH END SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER THE
COAST AND W ENTRANCE ARE LIKELY...POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE AT
TIMES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A GALE WATCH
IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE COAST/W ENTRANCE
BUT KEPT WINDS TO 30 KT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. SMALL CRAFT WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE REMAINING
WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN EASE.

A LULL IN WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY...THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT
WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
     STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
     GALE WATCH COAST AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
     FUCA FROM 5 PM PDT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION PLEASE SEE
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML   (ALL LOWERCASE)












000
FXUS66 KOTX 230955
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
254 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Occasional precipitation chances, breezy conditions and relatively
cool temperatures dominate the weather pattern. Passing rain and
snow chances Wednesday are followed by steadier rain chances late
Wednesday night into Thursday, followed by a threat of more
scattered showers, and perhaps some thunder, Thursday afternoon.
Showers will remain a threat into the weekend, before a relative
lull comes for the start of the new work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight: A threat of rain and snow showers returns
to the Inland NW today, while steadier rain develops late tonight.
This morning a tight 500mb shortwave was entering the Cascades,
with weak 850-700mb theta-e ridge leading it into central and
eastern WA and north ID. That latter feature will provide focus
for the moisture and increasing precipitation across the Cascade
crest and the Okanogan to Upper Columbia Basin, spreading into the
eastern third of WA and north ID this morning. There is some
disagreement in how quickly precipitation develops or how
widespread it will actually be. The HRRR actually shows very
little in that way of significant precipitation; however the
GFS/NAM/EC/SREF are more generous. At 930Z clouds were starting
to thicken near the Cascades and expand east, while a few light
radar returns were developing east of Othello. I don`t see any
evidence that anything is actually reaching the ground at this
time, but leaning toward the more dominant model solutions suggest
this will change. So I gradually increase PoPs to likely through
the morning, especially across southeast WA to the central
Panhandle.

For late this morning to early afternoon the 500mb shortwave
comes on the heels of the 850/700mb wave, before shifting into
Montana in the late afternoon. With 500mb temperatures in the core
of this disturbance in the -25 to -31 C range and a swath of
100-200 J/kg of CAPE and marginally negative LI values, this will
mean a continued shower threat across the eastern third of of WA
and north ID this afternoon, before dissipating in coverage by
early evening. I included a slight chance of thunder toward the
northeast mountains, but even then I think any thunder that
develops would be more isolated in nature, if any develops at all.

Looking at current wet-bulb zero heights and regional temperatures,
the precipitation will have a modest opportunity to fall as snow
across a large portion of the region, save for the lower Palouse
to the deeper Columbia Basin and the L-C valley. The threat for
more than an inch of snow, however, will remains toward the
Cascades and the Panhandle Mountains, and perhaps toward the
higher Idaho Palouse. The threat for accumulating snow outside of
the mountains will also be limited to early in the day. However
the convective or unstable nature of the atmosphere under the
trough will mean the potential for a rain/snow/graupel/small hail
mix with any showers that occur into the afternoon.

Late tonight into Thursday morning a warm front comes in from the
southwest. This will shift the region to more stable regime.
Strengthening isentropic ascent and subtropical moisture plume
come the warm front as the night wares on. PWATs rise to between
0.50 to 0.75 inches (or ~150-200% of normal). This favors another
swath of precipitation, enveloping much of the region from the
Columbia Basin toward the northern mountains between 04Z-11Z (or
~9 PM to 4 AM). I increased precipitation chances to likely for a
large portion of the region going past 06Z. By this time the
milder air surges in, pushing wet-bulb zero heights and snow
levels up toward 3500-4000 feet around the mountains of northeast
WA and north ID and to around 4500 to 5500 feet elsewhere. In
other words the next system looks to be more of a valley rain and
high mountain snow event. /J. Cote`

Thursday through Friday...Chances are very good that the recent
spurt of wet weather will continue through this period as well.
The latest water vapor and shows a developing baroclinic band
near 150w with a nice tap into sub-tropical moisture per the
blended precipitable water product. Models in very good agreement
that this atmospheric river will slide into SW Washington
Wednesday night and gradually spread northeast through Thursday
morning in the form of a warm front. Precipitation will likely
impact most locations...including the lee of the Cascades due to
moderate isentropic ascent resultant of the mid-level southwest
winds. Most of the stratiform precipitation will fall in the
morning...as the atmospheric river is expected to shift east of
the region by afternoon. Before it shifts east most of the region
will see measurable rainfall with amounts ranging from .20 to .40
inches over most valley locations...with heavier amounts over the
mountains of north Idaho and the Cascade Crest. This bout of rain
will be followed by a weak negatively tilted trough during the
afternoon...somewhat similar to yesterday. Whether or not the
moisture from the morning rain can combine with afternoon heating
to produce deep convection and possible thunderstorms is the
question. Yesterdays window of opportunity was too short to tap
into the moisture and thus we never saw thunderstorms. The
Thursday setup isn`t ideal but it should be a little better than
what we saw. Thus we will continue to mention a chance of
afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. The best chances will
occur east of a line from Republic to Ritzville. Model instability
isn`t supportive of any strong convection as the CAPE values are
too low for strong updrafts.

The threat of thunder will wane Thursday evening...and most of
the area will see a brief drying trend...with one exception. The
upper level trough responsible delivering the atmospheric river
will shift onto the Washington coast by morning...which is
expected to send a shortwave trough in from the southwest. All the
models are showing a similar scenario...with the track of the
shortwave expected to impact the southeast corner of Washington
into NC Idaho...due to the proximity of a low-level theta-e ridge
axis. Moderate rainfall amounts will be possible in this region
with locations such as Lewiston...Pullman...and the Silver Valley
seeing the possibility of up to a quarter inch. Across the
remainder of the forecast area the possibility of significant
rainfall is considerably lower. That notion will likely continue
until afternoon at which time the upper level trough will likely
shift into the Cascades. This should result in diurnally
developing convection...however lapse rates aren`t really all that
impressive. Most of the convection will likely fire over the
mountains due to terrain forcing.

Friday night through Monday...The upper level trough or some
semblances of it will likely remain fixed over the Pacific
Northwest through this period as well. There are no signs of
seeing a good fetch of moisture...or strong synoptic forcing at
least through the weekend. So we are primarily looking at an
unsettled weather pattern with generally dirunally driven shower
activity. Most of the convection will fire near the Cascades and
the Idaho Panhandle. By Monday there is some support for a weak
shortwave ridge. This should lead to slightly drier weather but
based on the amplitude of the ridge...we don`t want to go
completely dry. fx

Monday Night through Wednesday: The extended part of the forecast
which yesterday featured an amplifying ridge, now has gained some
uncertainty. Most recent GFS model runs now have the ridge sliding
further to the east over MT allowing the offshore trough to advect
an abundance of subtropical moisture into our region leading to
increased chances for more precipitation. While the GFS has
trended wetter, the Euro still advertises the ridge remaining
entrenched right over our area keeping the storm track to the
west. This would lead to the dry conditions the models were
showing yesterday. Due to the model uncertainty I did increase
POPs slightly to include the mention of showers for higher
elevation locations along with the eastern third of WA and the
Panhandle. Confidence is not high with this change, but thought it
would be worthwhile to at least move POPs towards climo for the
time being. Other than POPs, not many changes were made to the
period due to lower confidence. Many factors for this portion of
the forecast will depend on the verifying model and will have to
be fine tuned once model agreement is better. Given the models
right now, the active GFS would bring continued wet conditions
with below normal temps while Euro would bring above normal temps
and drier conditions. For the time being we will just have to wait
and see how the models trend over the next few runs. /Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: An upper-level trof is currently anchored over the
region. There is a break in the precipitation at this time but
clouds/showers will begin crossing the Cascades btwn 6z-
9z...spreading toward the ID/WA border 13-15z. The heaviest pcpn
with this feature looks to focus across SE WA and the lower ID
Panhandle. Snow will be possible down to 2000` but most
accumulations will focus at elevations of 2500-3000` and higher.
Showers will carry the potential for MVFR cigs and any intense
snow shower could brielfy lead to IFR conditions. Any snow should
have a hard time accumulating on area runways. Snow levels will
rise above all terminals aft 17z with breezy winds and sct -shra
through 23z. A small break arnd 00z will be followed by lower cigs
and incr -ra chances aft 03z as another moist warm front lifts
into the region. /sb



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  39  55  38  54  37 /  80  70 100  40  40  20
Coeur d`Alene  50  38  53  37  53  37 /  80  60 100  70  50  20
Pullman        50  41  54  39  50  37 /  80  70 100  50  50  20
Lewiston       56  45  60  44  55  42 /  60  50 100  60  70  20
Colville       57  35  59  35  61  36 /  50  50 100  60  40  20
Sandpoint      49  36  51  36  54  37 /  70  50 100  80  50  30
Kellogg        45  36  50  36  52  36 /  80  60 100  70  70  40
Moses Lake     61  44  65  40  61  38 /  20  70  70  10  10  20
Wenatchee      60  45  64  43  61  41 /  20  60  70  10  10  20
Omak           59  39  62  36  62  35 /  20  50  80  10  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 230952
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
252 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Occasional precipitation chances, breezy conditions and relatively
cool temperatures dominate the weather pattern. Passing rain and
snow chances Wednesday are followed by steadier rain chances late
Wednesday night into Thursday, followed by a threat of more
scattered showers, and perhaps some thunder, Thursday afternoon.
Showers will remain a threat into the weekend, before a relative
lull comes for the start of the new work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight: A threat of rain and snow showers returns
to the Inland NW today, while steadier rain develops late tonight.
This morning a tight 500mb shortwave was entering the Cascades,
with weak 850-700mb theta-e ridge leading it into central and
eastern WA and north ID. That latter feature will provide focus
for the moisture and increasing precipitation across the Cascade
crest and the Okanogan to Upper Columbia Basin, spreading into the
eastern third of WA and north ID this morning. There is some
disagreement in how quickly precipitation develops or how
widespread it will actually be. The HRRR actually shows very
little in that way of significant precipitation; however the
GFS/NAM/EC/SREF are more generous. At 930Z clouds were starting
to thicken near the Cascades and expand east, while a few light
radar returns were developing east of Othello. I don`t see any
evidence that anything is actually reaching the ground at this
time, but leaning toward the more dominant model solutions suggest
this will change. So I gradually increase PoPs to likely through
the morning, especially across southeast WA to the central
Panhandle.

For late this morning to early afternoon the 500mb shortwave
comes on the heels of the 850/700mb wave, before shifting into
Montana in the late afternoon. With 500mb temperatures in the core
of this disturbance in the -25 to -31 C range and a swath of
100-200 J/kg of CAPE and marginally negative LI values, this will
mean a continued shower threat across the eastern third of of WA
and north ID this afternoon, before dissipating in coverage by
early evening. I included a slight chance of thunder toward the
northeast mountains, but even then I think any thunder that
develops would be more isolated in nature, if any develops at all.

Looking at current wet-bulb zero heights and regional temperatures,
the precipitation will have a modest opportunity to fall as snow
across a large portion of the region, save for the lower Palouse
to the deeper Columbia Basin and the L-C valley. The threat for
more than an inch of snow, however, will remains toward the
Cascades and the Panhandle Mountains, and perhaps toward the
higher Idaho Palouse. The threat for accumulating snow outside of
the mountains will also be limited to early in the day. However
the convective or unstable nature of the atmosphere under the
trough will mean the potential for a rain/snow/graupel/small hail
mix with any showers that occur into the afternoon.

Late tonight into Thursday morning a warm front comes in from the
southwest. This will shift the region to more stable regime.
Strengthening isentropic ascent and subtropical moisture plume
come the warm front as the night wares on. PWATs rise to between
0.50 to 0.75 inches (or ~150-200% of normal). This favors another
swath of precipitation, enveloping much of the region from the
Columbia Basin toward the northern mountains between 04Z-11Z (or
~9 PM to 4 AM). I increased precipitation chances to likely for a
large portion of the region going past 06Z. By this time the
milder air surges in, pushing wet-bulb zero heights and snow
levels up toward 3500-4000 feet around the mountains of northeast
WA and north ID and to around 4500 to 5500 feet elsewhere. In
other words the next system looks to be more of a valley rain and
high mountain snow event. /J. Cote`

Thursday through Friday...Chances are very good that the recent
spurt of wet weather will continue through this period as well.
The latest water vapor and shows a developing baroclinic band
near 150w with a nice tap into sub-tropical moisture per the
blended precipitable water product. Models in very good agreement
that this atmospheric river will slide into SW Washington
Wednesday night and gradually spread northeast through Thursday
morning in the form of a warm front. Precipitation will likely
impact most locations...including the lee of the Cascades due to
moderate isentropic ascent resultant of the mid-level southwest
winds. Most of the stratiform precipitation will fall in the
morning...as the atmospheric river is expected to shift east of
the region by afternoon. Before it shifts east most of the region
will see measurable rainfall with amounts ranging from .20 to .40
inches over most valley locations...with heavier amounts over the
mountains of north Idaho and the Cascade Crest. This bout of rain
will be followed by a weak negatively tilted trough during the
afternoon...somewhat similar to yesterday. Whether or not the
moisture from the morning rain can combine with afternoon heating
to produce deep convection and possible thunderstorms is the
question. Yesterdays window of opportunity was too short to tap
into the moisture and thus we never saw thunderstorms. The
Thursday setup isn`t ideal but it should be a little better than
what we saw. Thus we will continue to mention a chance of
afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. The best chances will
occur east of a line from Republic to Ritzville. Model instability
isn`t supportive of any strong convection as the CAPE values are
too low for strong updrafts. The threat of thunder will wane
Thursday evening...and most of the area will see a brief drying
trend...with one exception. The upper level trough responsible
delivering the atmospheric river will shift onto the Washington
coast by morning...which is expected to send a shortwave trough in
from the southwest. All the models are showing a similar
scenario...with the track of the shortwave expected to impact the
southeast corner of Washington into NC Idaho...due to the
proximity of a low-level theta-e ridge axis. Moderate rainfall
amounts will be possible in this region with locations such as
Lewiston...Pullman...and the Silver Valley seeing the possibility
of up to a quarter inch. Across the remainder of the forecast area
the possibility of significant rainfall is considerably lower.
That notion will likely continue until afternoon at which time the
upper level trough will likely shift into the Cascades. This
should result in diurnally developing convection...however lapse
rates aren`t really all that impressive. Most of the convection
will likely fire over the mountains due to terrain forcing.

Friday night through Monday...The upper level trough or some
semblances of it will likely remain fixed over the Pacific
Northwest through this period as well. There are no signs of
seeing a good fetch of moisture...or strong synoptic forcing at
least through the weekend. So we are primarily looking at an
unsettled weather pattern with generally dirunally driven shower
activity. Most of the convection will fire near the Cascades and
the Idaho Panhandle. By Monday there is some support for a weak
shortwave ridge. This should lead to slightly drier weather but
based on the amplitude of the ridge...we don`t want to go
completely dry. fx

Monday Night through Wednesday: The extended part of the forecast
which yesterday featured an amplifying ridge, now has gained some
uncertainty. Most recent GFS model runs now have the ridge sliding
further to the east over MT allowing the offshore trough to advect
an abundance of subtropical moisture into our region leading to
increased chances for more precipitation. While the GFS has
trended wetter, the Euro still advertises the ridge remaining
entrenched right over our area keeping the storm track to the
west. This would lead to the dry conditions the models were
showing yesterday. Due to the model uncertainty I did increase
POPs slightly to include the mention of showers for higher
elevation locations along with the eastern third of WA and the
Panhandle. Confidence is not high with this change, but thought it
would be worthwhile to at least move POPs towards climo for the
time being. Other than POPs, not many changes were made to the
period due to lower confidence. Many factors for this portion of
the forecast will depend on the verifying model and will have to
be fine tuned once model agreement is better. Given the models
right now, the active GFS would bring continued wet conditions
with below normal temps while Euro would bring above normal temps
and drier conditions. For the time being we will just have to wait
and see how the models trend over the next few runs. /Fliehman

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: An upper-level trof is currently anchored over the
region. There is a break in the precipitation at this time but
clouds/showers will begin crossing the Cascades btwn 6z-
9z...spreading toward the ID/WA border 13-15z. The heaviest pcpn
with this feature looks to focus across SE WA and the lower ID
Panhandle. Snow will be possible down to 2000` but most
accumulations will focus at elevations of 2500-3000` and higher.
Showers will carry the potential for MVFR cigs and any intense
snow shower could brielfy lead to IFR conditions. Any snow should
have a hard time accumulating on area runways. Snow levels will
rise above all terminals aft 17z with breezy winds and sct -shra
through 23z. A small break arnd 00z will be followed by lower cigs
and incr -ra chances aft 03z as another moist warm front lifts
into the region. /sb



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  39  55  38  54  37 /  80  70 100  40  40  20
Coeur d`Alene  50  38  53  37  53  37 /  80  60 100  70  50  20
Pullman        50  41  54  39  50  37 /  80  70 100  50  50  20
Lewiston       56  45  60  44  55  42 /  60  50 100  60  70  20
Colville       57  35  59  35  61  36 /  50  50 100  60  40  20
Sandpoint      49  36  51  36  54  37 /  70  50 100  80  50  30
Kellogg        45  36  50  36  52  36 /  80  60 100  70  70  40
Moses Lake     61  44  65  40  61  38 /  20  70  70  10  10  20
Wenatchee      60  45  64  43  61  41 /  20  60  70  10  10  20
Omak           59  39  62  36  62  35 /  20  50  80  10  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 230918
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
220 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST TODAY THEN LIFT N
INTO WA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY BEHIND...MOVING
INLAND THU MORNING. THIS WILL USHER IN ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY PATTERN
THAT WILL LAST UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MODELS ALL INDICATE DEEP MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT TODAY
ON LAYERS FROM 285K THROUGH 300K...SPELLING A WET DAY TODAY. THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES UNTIL A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH NW OREGON
THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING LIFT RELIES MORE ON THE
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MODELS DEPICT MOVING THROUGH AS AN UPPER
TROUGH BGINS TO DIG IN ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL KEEP POPS
CATEGORICAL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY THROUGH THU MORNING...
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A SHORT DOWN TIME ON PRECIPITATION AFTER THE
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND BEFORE THE DYNAMIC LIFTING KICKS IN.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE CASCADES EARLY WED MORNING SHOWED SNOW
LEVELS ON THE ORDER OF 3500 FT...AND ARE LIKELY TO LIFT ONLY SLOWLY
UNTIL THE WARM FRONT MOVES IN THIS EVENING. AT THAT POINT MODELS
SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS POP UP ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES...BRINGING AN
END TO THE ACCUMULATING SNOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH 5 PM.

INITIALLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP
TO SUSTAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY FOR OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED MOUNTAINS. THE ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY THE
NIGHT...SO SHOWERS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY RELIANT ON INSTABILITY
CREATED BY THE COOL AIR ALOFT WITH THE DIGGING TROUGH FRI.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND
FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND
IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START
NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...BUT RECENT TRENDS IN MODELS
GIVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE THIS EVENING
AS THE HEART OF A WARM FRONT SPREADS OVER THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE SOLIDLY MVFR. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND AT KHIO. HOWEVER...GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE CORE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TAF SITES FROM
FALLING INTO IFR. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ONCE A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS MIXED IN TODAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND MORE
SOLIDLY INTO MVFR THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT SPREADS INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A DEVELOPING 990 MB LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
VANCOUVER ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
WARM FRONT SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT SPREADING OVER THE
WATERS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL THEN PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST THIS EVENING...CAUSING A COASTAL
JET TO INTENSIFY WITH SOLID 35 TO 40 KT WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITHIN
20 NM OF THE COAST. GALE FORCE WINDS SHOULD END AROUND DAYBREAK...
BUT WILL KEEP THE KEEP THE CURRENT TIMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE GALE
HEADLINE AS IS...IN CASE THIS SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN A FEW HOURS.
ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SOUTH WIND GUSTS TO INCREASE INTO THE 30 TO 35 KT
RANGE.

EXPECT SEAS TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 8 AND 12 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SEAS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 12 TO 14 FT RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN
THE MOST SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. /NEUMAN



&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 11 AM PDT
     THURSDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 230918
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
220 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST TODAY THEN LIFT N
INTO WA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY BEHIND...MOVING
INLAND THU MORNING. THIS WILL USHER IN ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY PATTERN
THAT WILL LAST UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MODELS ALL INDICATE DEEP MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT TODAY
ON LAYERS FROM 285K THROUGH 300K...SPELLING A WET DAY TODAY. THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES UNTIL A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH NW OREGON
THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING LIFT RELIES MORE ON THE
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MODELS DEPICT MOVING THROUGH AS AN UPPER
TROUGH BGINS TO DIG IN ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL KEEP POPS
CATEGORICAL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY THROUGH THU MORNING...
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A SHORT DOWN TIME ON PRECIPITATION AFTER THE
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND BEFORE THE DYNAMIC LIFTING KICKS IN.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE CASCADES EARLY WED MORNING SHOWED SNOW
LEVELS ON THE ORDER OF 3500 FT...AND ARE LIKELY TO LIFT ONLY SLOWLY
UNTIL THE WARM FRONT MOVES IN THIS EVENING. AT THAT POINT MODELS
SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS POP UP ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES...BRINGING AN
END TO THE ACCUMULATING SNOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH 5 PM.

INITIALLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP
TO SUSTAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY FOR OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED MOUNTAINS. THE ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY THE
NIGHT...SO SHOWERS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY RELIANT ON INSTABILITY
CREATED BY THE COOL AIR ALOFT WITH THE DIGGING TROUGH FRI.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND
FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND
IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START
NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...BUT RECENT TRENDS IN MODELS
GIVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE THIS EVENING
AS THE HEART OF A WARM FRONT SPREADS OVER THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE SOLIDLY MVFR. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND AT KHIO. HOWEVER...GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE CORE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TAF SITES FROM
FALLING INTO IFR. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ONCE A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS MIXED IN TODAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND MORE
SOLIDLY INTO MVFR THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT SPREADS INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A DEVELOPING 990 MB LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
VANCOUVER ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
WARM FRONT SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT SPREADING OVER THE
WATERS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL THEN PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST THIS EVENING...CAUSING A COASTAL
JET TO INTENSIFY WITH SOLID 35 TO 40 KT WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITHIN
20 NM OF THE COAST. GALE FORCE WINDS SHOULD END AROUND DAYBREAK...
BUT WILL KEEP THE KEEP THE CURRENT TIMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE GALE
HEADLINE AS IS...IN CASE THIS SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN A FEW HOURS.
ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SOUTH WIND GUSTS TO INCREASE INTO THE 30 TO 35 KT
RANGE.

EXPECT SEAS TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 8 AND 12 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SEAS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 12 TO 14 FT RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN
THE MOST SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. /NEUMAN



&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 11 AM PDT
     THURSDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 230918
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
220 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST TODAY THEN LIFT N
INTO WA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY BEHIND...MOVING
INLAND THU MORNING. THIS WILL USHER IN ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY PATTERN
THAT WILL LAST UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MODELS ALL INDICATE DEEP MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT TODAY
ON LAYERS FROM 285K THROUGH 300K...SPELLING A WET DAY TODAY. THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES UNTIL A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH NW OREGON
THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING LIFT RELIES MORE ON THE
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MODELS DEPICT MOVING THROUGH AS AN UPPER
TROUGH BGINS TO DIG IN ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL KEEP POPS
CATEGORICAL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY THROUGH THU MORNING...
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A SHORT DOWN TIME ON PRECIPITATION AFTER THE
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND BEFORE THE DYNAMIC LIFTING KICKS IN.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE CASCADES EARLY WED MORNING SHOWED SNOW
LEVELS ON THE ORDER OF 3500 FT...AND ARE LIKELY TO LIFT ONLY SLOWLY
UNTIL THE WARM FRONT MOVES IN THIS EVENING. AT THAT POINT MODELS
SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS POP UP ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES...BRINGING AN
END TO THE ACCUMULATING SNOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH 5 PM.

INITIALLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP
TO SUSTAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY FOR OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED MOUNTAINS. THE ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY THE
NIGHT...SO SHOWERS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY RELIANT ON INSTABILITY
CREATED BY THE COOL AIR ALOFT WITH THE DIGGING TROUGH FRI.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND
FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND
IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START
NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...BUT RECENT TRENDS IN MODELS
GIVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE THIS EVENING
AS THE HEART OF A WARM FRONT SPREADS OVER THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE SOLIDLY MVFR. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND AT KHIO. HOWEVER...GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE CORE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TAF SITES FROM
FALLING INTO IFR. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ONCE A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS MIXED IN TODAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND MORE
SOLIDLY INTO MVFR THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT SPREADS INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A DEVELOPING 990 MB LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
VANCOUVER ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
WARM FRONT SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT SPREADING OVER THE
WATERS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL THEN PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST THIS EVENING...CAUSING A COASTAL
JET TO INTENSIFY WITH SOLID 35 TO 40 KT WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITHIN
20 NM OF THE COAST. GALE FORCE WINDS SHOULD END AROUND DAYBREAK...
BUT WILL KEEP THE KEEP THE CURRENT TIMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE GALE
HEADLINE AS IS...IN CASE THIS SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN A FEW HOURS.
ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SOUTH WIND GUSTS TO INCREASE INTO THE 30 TO 35 KT
RANGE.

EXPECT SEAS TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 8 AND 12 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SEAS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 12 TO 14 FT RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN
THE MOST SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. /NEUMAN



&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 11 AM PDT
     THURSDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 230918
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
220 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST TODAY THEN LIFT N
INTO WA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY BEHIND...MOVING
INLAND THU MORNING. THIS WILL USHER IN ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY PATTERN
THAT WILL LAST UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MODELS ALL INDICATE DEEP MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT TODAY
ON LAYERS FROM 285K THROUGH 300K...SPELLING A WET DAY TODAY. THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES UNTIL A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH NW OREGON
THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING LIFT RELIES MORE ON THE
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MODELS DEPICT MOVING THROUGH AS AN UPPER
TROUGH BGINS TO DIG IN ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL KEEP POPS
CATEGORICAL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY THROUGH THU MORNING...
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A SHORT DOWN TIME ON PRECIPITATION AFTER THE
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND BEFORE THE DYNAMIC LIFTING KICKS IN.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE CASCADES EARLY WED MORNING SHOWED SNOW
LEVELS ON THE ORDER OF 3500 FT...AND ARE LIKELY TO LIFT ONLY SLOWLY
UNTIL THE WARM FRONT MOVES IN THIS EVENING. AT THAT POINT MODELS
SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS POP UP ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES...BRINGING AN
END TO THE ACCUMULATING SNOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH 5 PM.

INITIALLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP
TO SUSTAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY FOR OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED MOUNTAINS. THE ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY THE
NIGHT...SO SHOWERS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY RELIANT ON INSTABILITY
CREATED BY THE COOL AIR ALOFT WITH THE DIGGING TROUGH FRI.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND
FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND
IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START
NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...BUT RECENT TRENDS IN MODELS
GIVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE THIS EVENING
AS THE HEART OF A WARM FRONT SPREADS OVER THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE SOLIDLY MVFR. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND AT KHIO. HOWEVER...GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE CORE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TAF SITES FROM
FALLING INTO IFR. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ONCE A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS MIXED IN TODAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND MORE
SOLIDLY INTO MVFR THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT SPREADS INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A DEVELOPING 990 MB LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
VANCOUVER ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
WARM FRONT SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT SPREADING OVER THE
WATERS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL THEN PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST THIS EVENING...CAUSING A COASTAL
JET TO INTENSIFY WITH SOLID 35 TO 40 KT WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITHIN
20 NM OF THE COAST. GALE FORCE WINDS SHOULD END AROUND DAYBREAK...
BUT WILL KEEP THE KEEP THE CURRENT TIMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE GALE
HEADLINE AS IS...IN CASE THIS SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN A FEW HOURS.
ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SOUTH WIND GUSTS TO INCREASE INTO THE 30 TO 35 KT
RANGE.

EXPECT SEAS TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 8 AND 12 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SEAS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 12 TO 14 FT RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN
THE MOST SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. /NEUMAN



&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 11 AM PDT
     THURSDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KOTX 230549
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1048 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
An active and wet spring weather pattern can be expected across
the Inland Northwest. Showery conditions and breezy winds will
continue this evening and return on Wednesday. Some short-lived
valley snow is possible early Wednesday morning. The next Pacific
storm will bring rain on Thursday, with more showery conditions
Friday and into the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: The region is currently under the influence of
a cool upper-level trof with several embedded disturbances. One
midlevel wave and its associated shower activity is about to
depart Nrn ID while a second is crossing onto the WA Coast.
Between these features, skies are clearing. With dewpoints in the
20`s for much of the Basin, East Slopes, and lower ID Panhandle
temperatures will cool rather quickly until clouds spread in from
the west once again. This will support the idea of lowering snow
levels that have been advertised with the last few days. The one
caveat is across far NE WA and Nrn ID Panhandle where showers from
this afternoon/evening have moistened surface dewpoints into the
upper 30`s. While snow levels will still be low, overnight lows
will not be as cold as expected and the sheltered valleys could
likely see patchy fog.

Otherwise...showers will begin crossing the Cascades after
06z (11PM)...cross into the Columbia Basin 10-11z (3-4AM)...and
track toward the WA/ID border 12-14Z (5AM-7AM). Wetbulb zero
heights on the coolest model (NAM) are around 2000-2500 mainly
east of a line from Waterville to Ritzville to Lewiston which
which will bring the potential for light snow showers at locations
like Spokane...Pullman...CDA...Deary...and St Maries. The highest
threat for a quick burst of light snow will focus across
southeastern WA and the lower ID Panhandle mainly south of a line
from Sandpoint to Spokane to Ritzville where the best dynamics
will track. This is supported by recent model trends as well. This
will give locations above 2200` in the Blue Mtns and Palouse the
best chance for up to an inch of snow. As the showers move into
the ID Panhandle shortly after, snow will still be the dominate
p-type above 2200` but the increasing sun angle will lower the
threat for accumulating snow below 3000`. Locations north of Hwy 2
could see very little precipitation from the second wave. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...06z TAFS: An upper-level trof is currently anchored
over the region. There is a break in the precipitation at this
time but clouds/showers will begin crossing the Cascades
btwn 6z-9z...spreading toward the ID/WA border 13-15z. The
heaviest pcpn with this feature looks to focus across SE WA and
the lower ID Panhandle. Snow will be possible down to 2000` but
most accumulations will focus at elevations of 2500-3000` and
higher. Showers will carry the potential for MVFR cigs and any
intense snow shower could brielfy lead to IFR conditions.  Any
snow should have a hard time accumulating on area runways. Snow
levels will rise above all terminals aft 17z with breezy winds and
sct -shra through 23z. A small break arnd 00z will be followed by
lower cigs and incr -ra chances aft 03z as another moist warm
front lifts into the region. /sb


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        34  51  39  54  39  55 /  10  60  20 100  40  40
Coeur d`Alene  33  50  38  53  38  55 /  10  60  20 100  70  50
Pullman        34  50  41  54  40  54 /  20  60  40 100  40  60
Lewiston       38  56  45  59  45  59 /  20  50  30 100  50  60
Colville       35  57  35  56  37  62 /  20  50  10 100  40  30
Sandpoint      32  49  36  50  38  55 /  60  60  30 100  70  50
Kellogg        33  45  36  50  37  55 /  20  70  40 100  70  70
Moses Lake     39  61  44  65  39  63 /  20  20  50  60  10  20
Wenatchee      42  60  45  63  42  62 /  20  20  60  60  20  20
Omak           37  59  39  59  37  63 /  20  20  20  90  20  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 230423
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
922 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
An active and wet spring weather pattern can be expected across
the Inland Northwest. Showery conditions and breezy winds will
continue this evening and return on Wednesday. Some short-lived
valley snow is possible early Wednesday morning. The next Pacific
storm will bring rain on Thursday, with more showery conditions
Friday and into the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: The region is currently under the influence of
a cool upper-level trof with several embedded disturbances. One
midlevel wave and its associated shower activity is about to
depart Nrn ID while a second is crossing onto the WA Coast.
Between these features, skies are clearing. With dewpoints in the
20`s for much of the Basin, East Slopes, and lower ID Panhandle
temperatures will cool rather quickly until clouds spread in from
the west once again. This will support the idea of lowering snow
levels that have been advertised with the last few days. The one
caveat is across far NE WA and Nrn ID Panhandle where showers from
this afternoon/evening have moistened surface dewpoints into the
upper 30`s. While snow levels will still be low, overnight lows
will not be as cold as expected and the sheltered valleys could
likely see patchy fog.

Otherwise...showers will begin crossing the Cascades after
06z (11PM)...cross into the Columbia Basin 10-11z (3-4AM)...and
track toward the WA/ID border 12-14Z (5AM-7AM). Wetbulb zero
heights on the coolest model (NAM) are around 2000-2500 mainly
east of a line from Waterville to Ritzville to Lewiston which
which will bring the potential for light snow showers at locations
like Spokane...Pullman...CDA...Deary...and St Maries. The highest
threat for a quick burst of light snow will focus across
southeastern WA and the lower ID Panhandle mainly south of a line
from Sandpoint to Spokane to Ritzville where the best dynamics
will track. This is supported by recent model trends as well. This
will give locations above 2200` in the Blue Mtns and Palouse the
best chance for up to an inch of snow. As the showers move into
the ID Panhandle shortly after, snow will still be the dominate
p-type above 2200` but the increasing sun angle will lower the
threat for accumulating snow below 3000`. Locations north of Hwy 2
could see very little precipitation from the second wave. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...00z TAFS: A trof has become established over the
region. Two main features within this trof will deliver rounds of
scattered showers to the area. One will track from the Cascades
to N Idaho btwn 00-04z with a second 09-18z. Each will bring the
potential for MVFR cigs and light rain or snow showers. P-type at
GEG/COE/PUW carries low confidence and opted to stick with wx
types inherited with continued support from the 18z NAM guidance
for this p-type. Any snow should have a hard time accumulating on
area runways. In addition, winds will remain elevated through the
night...becoming breezy once again aft 18z. /sb.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        34  51  39  54  39  55 /  10  60  20 100  40  40
Coeur d`Alene  33  50  38  53  38  55 /  10  60  20 100  70  50
Pullman        34  50  41  54  40  54 /  20  60  40 100  40  60
Lewiston       38  56  45  59  45  59 /  20  50  30 100  50  60
Colville       35  57  35  56  37  62 /  20  50  10 100  40  30
Sandpoint      32  49  36  50  38  55 /  60  60  30 100  70  50
Kellogg        33  45  36  50  37  55 /  20  70  40 100  70  70
Moses Lake     39  61  44  65  39  63 /  20  20  50  60  10  20
Wenatchee      42  60  45  63  42  62 /  20  20  60  60  20  20
Omak           37  59  39  59  37  63 /  20  20  20  90  20  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 230401
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT INLAND THURSDAY
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS. A THIRD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS WILL BE NUMEROUS THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER
SHORT WAVE MOVES ONSHORE. THEY WILL PROBABLY TAPER A BIT AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

AFTER A BIT OF A BREAK FOR THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO WILL MOVE ONSHORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING FOR A PERIOD OF RAIN ALL AREAS.

THURSDAY WILL SEE SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOIST AND SOMEWHAT
UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOUTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL BE
PRETTY STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SOME BREEZY WINDS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY FOR
A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MOST OF THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FAR TO
THE SOUTH AND SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY AND NOT TOO ORGANIZED. THERE
SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IN BETWEEN SHOWERS. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
PAC NW WILL LEAD TO A FEW MORE SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN WA ON
SATURDAY. OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INLAND SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR A WETTER PERIOD OF WEATHER. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT - SHOWERS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE COAST
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.

ANOTHER PAC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION MON OR MON NIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PAC NW ON TUE FOR DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING REMAINS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE EXCEPTION IS THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF
THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE NEAR OSO WHERE A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THIS RIVER AS A
RESULT OF WATER POOLED BEHIND THE DEBRIS DAM THAT PARTIALLY BLOCKS
THE RIVER.

A FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY COULD GIVE 1.00 INCH OF
RAIN. IF THIS OCCURS...THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER IN
THE SLIDE AREA WILL SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT RISES THAN WHAT ARE
CURRENTLY INDICATED IN THE RIVER FORECASTS.

AT 8 PM...THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH NEAR ARLINGTON WAS AT
4.7 FT...OR 2880 CFS. THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER NEAR
OSO WAS AT 216.7 FT AT 2050 CFS. THE POOL EAST OF THE SLIDE WAS
282.7 FT AT 6 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WRN
WA TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN ANOTHER TROUGH ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT. MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS...DECREASING LATE TONIGHT...INCREASING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A MIX OF VFR AND 2-4K FT MVFR CEILINGS.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.

KSEA...CIGS VARIABLE BUT GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT 2-3K FT CIGS WITH
SHOWERS THROUGH 12. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-12 KT...EASING TO 4-8 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS
TONIGHT. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 5 AM PDT AND
INCLUDES ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT. WINDS SHOULD EASE
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EVENING
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING THURSDAY. THIS ONE LOOKS STRONGER
SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER MOST WATERS.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE ABOUT SATURDAY. DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
     STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT CENTRAL STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION PLEASE SEE
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML   (ALL LOWERCASE)









000
FXUS66 KPQR 230332
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
831 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MORE WET WEATHER AHEAD FOR THIS WEEK.  SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST...KEEPING
A THREAT FOR RAIN GOING INTO WED. THERE WILL BE SNOW
DOWN TO THE CASCADE PASS LEVELS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.A MORE
ROBUST SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST
LATER WED INTO THU. ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WASHINGTON COAST. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ONSHORE
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM APPROACHING
WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW JUST ABOUT TO CROSS 140W. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE MORE RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND BREEZY COASTAL WINDS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EVENING FORECAST AND
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COOL UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE DAYTIME HEATING AND A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
AIR MASS INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY.  THERE WERE A FEW
REPORTS OF PEA SIZED HAIL ON THE COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CURRENT
RADAR SHOWING SOME SMALL CELLS WITH 50DBZ ECHOES...SO WILL ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING.

DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT AND WED MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP WITH THE APPROACHING RIDGE
ALOFT. BEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FOUND BETWEEN 285K AND 290K
ISENTROPIC SURFACES FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL WED EVENING. THIS
COUPLED WITH RATHER GENEROUS QPF FORECASTS IN ALL THE MODELS GIVES
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN WED. DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL THU MORNING...AS LIFTING MECHANISM SWITCHES
TO DYNAMICS GENERATED BY A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE THU
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP POPS CATEGORICAL THROUGH THU. MODELS SHOW A
FAIRLY DEEP LOW APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND THU MORNING. MODELS
VARY SOME ON THE POSITION BUT NOT BY MUCH. THE LOWEST CENTRAL
PRESSURE RANGES FROM 989MB TO 995MB. EITHER WAY THE FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BRING FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST...AND
IT COULD BE BREEZY INLAND AS WELL ON THU.  SHOWERS LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONT THU AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER TROUGH DIGS IN TOWARDS
THE COAST.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW CASCADE PASSES INTO WED...POSSIBLY INTO
WED EVENING...BEFORE WARMER AIR PUSHES IN WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU.
OROGRAPHICS ARE NOT GREAT LIKE A WINTER TIME STORM...BUT MODEL QPF
COMBINED WITH MODERATE OROGRAPHICS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE
ABOUT 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET FOR TONIGHT AND WED.
MODELS GENERALLY FOCUS OF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS NORTH OF MOUNT
JEFFERSON INTO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE A SNOW ADVISORY
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND WED.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND
FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND
IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START
NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...BUT RECENT TRENDS IN MODELS
GIVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS A MORE ORGANIZED
BAND/FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. STILL MAY SEE SOME SMALL HAIL IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND AS STEADIER RAIN INCREASES TONIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS
OR EVEN LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING ONSHORE INTO WEDNESDAY AS
SUBSEQUENT WAVES OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH...AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE...POSSIBLY PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS A MORE
ORGANIZED BAND OR A FRONT OF SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH CIGS AROUND 2500-3500 FT. A
MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR CONTINUES WEDNESDAY. PT/27

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A 1000 MB LOW OUT NEAR 48N 130W MOVES TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS AND STALLS NEAR THE COAST. A
TRAILING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LOW END GALE FORCE WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KT LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVE.
THEN A STRONGER LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 993 MB AS IT HEADS TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR MORE GALE FORCE
WINDS BEFORE THE LOW WEAKENS ALONG THE COAST AGAIN LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER RATHER STRONG PACIFIC FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE HIGH END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY OR POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS AGAIN.

SEAS WILL HOVER AROUND 10 TO 12 FT STARTING TONIGHT WITH THE
FIRST LOW...AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. SEAS MAY POSSIBLY
EVEN CLIMB ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO WITH THE SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN
     OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO
     FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 230332
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
831 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MORE WET WEATHER AHEAD FOR THIS WEEK.  SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST...KEEPING
A THREAT FOR RAIN GOING INTO WED. THERE WILL BE SNOW
DOWN TO THE CASCADE PASS LEVELS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.A MORE
ROBUST SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST
LATER WED INTO THU. ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WASHINGTON COAST. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ONSHORE
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM APPROACHING
WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW JUST ABOUT TO CROSS 140W. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE MORE RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND BREEZY COASTAL WINDS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EVENING FORECAST AND
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COOL UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE DAYTIME HEATING AND A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
AIR MASS INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY.  THERE WERE A FEW
REPORTS OF PEA SIZED HAIL ON THE COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CURRENT
RADAR SHOWING SOME SMALL CELLS WITH 50DBZ ECHOES...SO WILL ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING.

DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT AND WED MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP WITH THE APPROACHING RIDGE
ALOFT. BEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FOUND BETWEEN 285K AND 290K
ISENTROPIC SURFACES FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL WED EVENING. THIS
COUPLED WITH RATHER GENEROUS QPF FORECASTS IN ALL THE MODELS GIVES
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN WED. DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL THU MORNING...AS LIFTING MECHANISM SWITCHES
TO DYNAMICS GENERATED BY A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE THU
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP POPS CATEGORICAL THROUGH THU. MODELS SHOW A
FAIRLY DEEP LOW APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND THU MORNING. MODELS
VARY SOME ON THE POSITION BUT NOT BY MUCH. THE LOWEST CENTRAL
PRESSURE RANGES FROM 989MB TO 995MB. EITHER WAY THE FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BRING FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST...AND
IT COULD BE BREEZY INLAND AS WELL ON THU.  SHOWERS LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONT THU AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER TROUGH DIGS IN TOWARDS
THE COAST.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW CASCADE PASSES INTO WED...POSSIBLY INTO
WED EVENING...BEFORE WARMER AIR PUSHES IN WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU.
OROGRAPHICS ARE NOT GREAT LIKE A WINTER TIME STORM...BUT MODEL QPF
COMBINED WITH MODERATE OROGRAPHICS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE
ABOUT 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET FOR TONIGHT AND WED.
MODELS GENERALLY FOCUS OF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS NORTH OF MOUNT
JEFFERSON INTO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE A SNOW ADVISORY
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND WED.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND
FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND
IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START
NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...BUT RECENT TRENDS IN MODELS
GIVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS A MORE ORGANIZED
BAND/FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. STILL MAY SEE SOME SMALL HAIL IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND AS STEADIER RAIN INCREASES TONIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS
OR EVEN LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING ONSHORE INTO WEDNESDAY AS
SUBSEQUENT WAVES OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH...AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE...POSSIBLY PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS A MORE
ORGANIZED BAND OR A FRONT OF SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH CIGS AROUND 2500-3500 FT. A
MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR CONTINUES WEDNESDAY. PT/27

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A 1000 MB LOW OUT NEAR 48N 130W MOVES TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS AND STALLS NEAR THE COAST. A
TRAILING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LOW END GALE FORCE WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KT LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVE.
THEN A STRONGER LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 993 MB AS IT HEADS TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR MORE GALE FORCE
WINDS BEFORE THE LOW WEAKENS ALONG THE COAST AGAIN LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER RATHER STRONG PACIFIC FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE HIGH END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY OR POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS AGAIN.

SEAS WILL HOVER AROUND 10 TO 12 FT STARTING TONIGHT WITH THE
FIRST LOW...AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. SEAS MAY POSSIBLY
EVEN CLIMB ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO WITH THE SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN
     OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO
     FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 230332
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
831 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MORE WET WEATHER AHEAD FOR THIS WEEK.  SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST...KEEPING
A THREAT FOR RAIN GOING INTO WED. THERE WILL BE SNOW
DOWN TO THE CASCADE PASS LEVELS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.A MORE
ROBUST SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST
LATER WED INTO THU. ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WASHINGTON COAST. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ONSHORE
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM APPROACHING
WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW JUST ABOUT TO CROSS 140W. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE MORE RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND BREEZY COASTAL WINDS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EVENING FORECAST AND
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COOL UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE DAYTIME HEATING AND A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
AIR MASS INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY.  THERE WERE A FEW
REPORTS OF PEA SIZED HAIL ON THE COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CURRENT
RADAR SHOWING SOME SMALL CELLS WITH 50DBZ ECHOES...SO WILL ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING.

DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT AND WED MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP WITH THE APPROACHING RIDGE
ALOFT. BEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FOUND BETWEEN 285K AND 290K
ISENTROPIC SURFACES FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL WED EVENING. THIS
COUPLED WITH RATHER GENEROUS QPF FORECASTS IN ALL THE MODELS GIVES
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN WED. DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL THU MORNING...AS LIFTING MECHANISM SWITCHES
TO DYNAMICS GENERATED BY A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE THU
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP POPS CATEGORICAL THROUGH THU. MODELS SHOW A
FAIRLY DEEP LOW APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND THU MORNING. MODELS
VARY SOME ON THE POSITION BUT NOT BY MUCH. THE LOWEST CENTRAL
PRESSURE RANGES FROM 989MB TO 995MB. EITHER WAY THE FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BRING FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST...AND
IT COULD BE BREEZY INLAND AS WELL ON THU.  SHOWERS LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONT THU AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER TROUGH DIGS IN TOWARDS
THE COAST.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW CASCADE PASSES INTO WED...POSSIBLY INTO
WED EVENING...BEFORE WARMER AIR PUSHES IN WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU.
OROGRAPHICS ARE NOT GREAT LIKE A WINTER TIME STORM...BUT MODEL QPF
COMBINED WITH MODERATE OROGRAPHICS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE
ABOUT 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET FOR TONIGHT AND WED.
MODELS GENERALLY FOCUS OF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS NORTH OF MOUNT
JEFFERSON INTO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE A SNOW ADVISORY
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND WED.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND
FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND
IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START
NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...BUT RECENT TRENDS IN MODELS
GIVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS A MORE ORGANIZED
BAND/FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. STILL MAY SEE SOME SMALL HAIL IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND AS STEADIER RAIN INCREASES TONIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS
OR EVEN LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING ONSHORE INTO WEDNESDAY AS
SUBSEQUENT WAVES OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH...AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE...POSSIBLY PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS A MORE
ORGANIZED BAND OR A FRONT OF SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH CIGS AROUND 2500-3500 FT. A
MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR CONTINUES WEDNESDAY. PT/27

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A 1000 MB LOW OUT NEAR 48N 130W MOVES TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS AND STALLS NEAR THE COAST. A
TRAILING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LOW END GALE FORCE WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KT LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVE.
THEN A STRONGER LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 993 MB AS IT HEADS TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR MORE GALE FORCE
WINDS BEFORE THE LOW WEAKENS ALONG THE COAST AGAIN LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER RATHER STRONG PACIFIC FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE HIGH END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY OR POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS AGAIN.

SEAS WILL HOVER AROUND 10 TO 12 FT STARTING TONIGHT WITH THE
FIRST LOW...AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. SEAS MAY POSSIBLY
EVEN CLIMB ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO WITH THE SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN
     OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO
     FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KOTX 222349
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
448 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
An active and wet spring weather pattern can be expected across
the Inland Northwest. Showery conditions and breezy winds will
continue this evening and return on Wednesday. Some short-lived
valley snow is possible early Wednesday morning. The next Pacific
storm will bring rain on Thursday, with more showery conditions
Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday: In the wake of slowly departing cold front,
the rain and high mountain snow will decrease this evening across
the northern mountains. An upper level trough will pivot over the
region tonight as an 100+ kt upper level jet slides out of north
Idaho and into Montana. Anticipate a brief break in the weather
late this evening with some partial clearing. But it will be short
lived as the next weather system, a secondary shortwave off the
coast of Vancouver Island, will sheer inland overnight. This
secondary shortwave will cross Cascades by 12z and stretch to
north Idaho and weaken by 18z. The GFS seems more robust initially
with this feature, but both the NAM and GFS weaken it
significantly during the morning hours. The track of this feature
is not clear as the NAM takes a more northern track across
Canadian border, the GFS goes across central Washington, while the
ECMWF is right in between. The sensible weather is similar with
increasing clouds overnight and bands of showers developing during
the early morning hours. Given overnight low temperatures in the
low to mid 30s and snow levels down to 2-3k ft, could see some low
elevation snow showers Wednesday morning especially across extreme
eastern Washington and into north Idaho. Snow amounts are expected
to be light, but heavier showers could produce a short lived
intense snow or rain. Snow levels jump into the mountains by
midday and afternoon with valley rain and mountain snow as
instability increase with daytime heating. West to southwest winds
will increase Wednesday afternoon especially across the Columbia
Basin and Palouse with gusts to 30 mph. The winds and showers will
taper off quickly early Wednesday evening. Unseasonably cool
conditions will continue. /rfox.

Wednesday night through Friday...Satellite imagery near 150W
depicts a baroclinic leaf structure which will impact the forecast
area on Thursday. A very brief relatively dry period Wednesday
evening will give way to increasing chances of precipitation from
west to east as this system approaches the region. Model agreement
between the GFS and ECMWF is good regarding the character and
timing of this next wet storm. Initially manifesting itself as a
warm front which will be fed by a pacific moisture feed...a
negatively tilted short wave pushing the system along will nose
into the forecast area late in the day and decrease stability with
the cold air aloft moving over the warm front scoured low level
air mass.

What this portends is a round of widespread light stratiform rain
over just about all of the forecast area during the morning
hours..and into the afternoon over the far eastern and northern
zones...followed by showery conditions in the afternoon which may
be punctuated by thunderstorms on an axis defined from the north
Cascades to Colville and south to Lewiston. High temperatures will
be heavily impacted by precipitation and probably somewhat below
normal.

The deep parent trough (spawned from which will be the negatively
tilted minor shortwave) will then approach the coast keeping the
forecast area under the moist east flank baroclinic
region...setting the stage for a sustained period of frequent
showers over the eastern zones through Thursday night and Friday
in which the deep basin and Cascades lee zones will probably
experience less areal coverage but none-the-less still at risk for
showers. Temperatures on Friday under southerly flow aloft ahead
of this deep trough and with a more hit-and-miss shower regime
will probably climb to a few degrees warmer than Thursday...but at
best barely to seasonal averages and probably only in the deep
basin at that. /Fugazzi

Friday night through Tuesday...The region will be under the
influence of an upper level trough through the weekend. Two
distinct shortwaves, separated by a very brief shortwave ridge,
will bring a chance of showers to the Inland Northwest. The first
wave will transit the area Friday night into Saturday. Not much of
a break Saturday night before the next trough on Sunday. The
greater convective instability will be Sunday afternoon and
evening. Isolated thunderstorms may develop across the northeast
zones but confidence is not high enough for a mention in the
weather grids. Abundant cloud cover and showers will keep daytime
temperatures below seasonal normals.

For the start of the work week the 12z GFS is showing a much
flatter ridge than the ECMWF. The GFS solution would allow a deep
plume of moisture to slide over the region. While the more
amplified 00Z EC shunts this to our north with drier and warmer
conditions on tap, the new 12Z run is trending toward the wetter
GFS. Neither model has been stellar in run to run consistency so
will keep low chance PoPs in for Sunday night and Monday, then
continue to dry out the forecast for Monday night and Tuesday as
models are in better agreement in ridge building over the forecast
area. The ridge would lead to temperatures trending to the warm
side of climo. /Kelch

&&

..AVIATION...00z TAFS: A trof has become established over the
region. Two main features within this trof will deliver rounds of
scattered showers to the area. One will track from the Cascades
to N Idaho btwn 00-04z with a second 09-18z. Each will bring the
potential for MVFR cigs and light rain or snow showers. P-type at
GEG/COE/PUW carries low confidence and opted to stick with wx
types inherited with continued support from the 18z NAM guidance
for this p-type. Any snow should have a hard time accumulating on
area runways. In addition, winds will remain elevated through the
night...becoming breezy once again aft 18z. /sb.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        33  51  39  54  39  55 /  20  60  20 100  40  40
Coeur d`Alene  32  50  38  53  38  55 /  40  60  20 100  70  50
Pullman        34  50  41  54  40  54 /  20  60  40 100  40  60
Lewiston       38  56  45  59  45  59 /  20  50  30 100  50  60
Colville       32  57  35  56  37  62 /  30  60  10 100  40  30
Sandpoint      32  49  36  50  38  55 /  50  60  30 100  70  50
Kellogg        32  45  36  50  37  55 /  90  70  40 100  70  70
Moses Lake     39  61  44  65  39  63 /  20  20  50  60  10  20
Wenatchee      42  60  45  63  42  62 /  20  20  60  60  20  20
Omak           33  59  39  59  37  63 /  20  20  20  90  20  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 222229
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING
SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN NORTH
INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT INLAND THURSDAY MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE REGION CONTINUES TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE INLAND.
THE FRONT IS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS RIGHT NOW WITH SHOWERS REACHING
THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN SPREADING INTO THE INTERIOR BY
MIDNIGHT. WE MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER LATE WED MORNING
AND AFTERNOON...THEN MORE RAIN TOWARD THE EVENING AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES IN. MODELS SHOW RAIN SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND THURSDAY MORNING FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
MORE SHOWERS. A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL LIKELY FORM THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES. EXPECT A FEW
MORE SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES
WESTERN WA. 33

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW WILL LEAD TO A
FEW MORE SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN WA ON SATURDAY. OUR NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR A WETTER PERIOD OF
WEATHER. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
- SHOWERS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.

ANOTHER PAC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION MON OR MON NIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PAC NW ON TUE FOR DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING REMAINS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE EXCEPTION IS THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF
THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE NEAR OSO WHERE A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THIS RIVER AS A
RESULT OF WATER POOLED BEHIND THE DEBRIS DAM THAT PARTIALLY BLOCKS
THE RIVER.

A FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY COULD GIVE 1.00 INCH OF
RAIN. IF THIS OCCURS...THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER IN
THE SLIDE AREA WILL SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT RISES THAN WHAT ARE
CURRENTLY INDICATED IN THE RIVER FORECASTS.

AT 3 PM...THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH NEAR ARLINGTON WAS AT
4.8 FT...OR 3130 CFS. THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER NEAR
OSO WAS AT 216.7 FT AT 2120 CFS. THE SLIDE POOL EAST OF THE SLIDE
WAS AT 282.9 FT 1130 AM THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS WEAKLY UNSTABLE AND MOIST WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FRONT LIKE FEATURE JUST REACHING
THE COAST WITH WEAK CONVECTION CELLS OVER THE LAND.

THE FORECAST IS FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...THEN MORE
STEADY RAIN WILL OCCUR AS THE FRONT MOVES BY. RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME A
MIX OF VFR AND 2-4K FT MVFR CEILINGS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BEGINNING AROUND 03Z. WEDNESDAY SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME HOURS OF 3-4K FT CEILINGS 03Z-09Z.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-14G20 KT WILL TAPER AFTER 06Z. CHB

&&

.MARINE...SCATTERED CONVECTION COUPLED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT
BROUGHT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MOST WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE
CENTRAL STRAIT. IN GENERAL THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE ADVISORIES SET TO EXPIRE AT 11 PM.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY. THIS ONE LOOKS STRONGER SO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER MOST WATERS.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE ABOUT SATURDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
     STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT CENTRAL STRAIT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION PLEASE SEE
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML   (ALL LOWERCASE)






000
FXUS66 KPQR 222151
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
204 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MORE WET WEATHER AHEAD FOR THIS WEEK.  SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
COAST...KEEPING A THREAT FOR RAIN GOING INTO WED. THERE WILL BE SNOW
DOWN TO THE CASCADE PASS LEVELS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  A MORE
ROBUST SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST
LATER WED INTO THU. ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A COOL UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE DAYTIME HEATING AND A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR
MASS INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY.  THERE WERE A FEW
REPORTS OF PEA SIZED HAIL ON THE COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CURRENT
RADAR SHOWING SOME SMALL CELLS WITH 50DBZ ECHOES...SO WILL ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING.

DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT AND WED MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP WITH THE APPROACHING RIDGE
ALOFT. BEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FOUND BETWEEN 285K AND 290K
ISENTROPIC SURFACES FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL WED EVENING. THIS
COUPLED WITH RATHER GENEROUS QPF FORECASTS IN ALL THE MODELS GIVES
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN WED. DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL THU MORNING...AS LIFTING MECHANISM SWITCHES
TO DYNAMICS GENERATED BY A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE THU
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP POPS CATEGORICAL THROUGH THU. MODELS SHOW A
FAIRLY DEEP LOW APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND THU MORNING. MODELS
VARY SOME ON THE POSITION BUT NOT BY MUCH. THE LOWEST CENTRAL
PRESSURE RANGES FROM 989MB TO 995MB. EITHER WAY THE FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BRING FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST...AND
IT COULD BE BREEZY INLAND AS WELL ON THU.  SHOWERS LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONT THU AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER TROUGH DIGS IN TOWARDS
THE COAST.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW CASCADE PASSES INTO WED...POSSIBLY INTO
WED EVENING...BEFORE WARMER AIR PUSHES IN WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU.
OROGRAPHICS ARE NOT GREAT LIKE A WINTER TIME STORM...BUT MODEL QPF
COMBINED WITH MODERATE OROGRAPHICS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE
ABOUT 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET FOR TONIGHT AND WED.
MODELS GENERALLY FOCUS OF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS NORTH OF MOUNT
JEFFERSON INTO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE A SNOW ADVISORY
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND WED.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A
BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE
SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL
QUITE A WAY OUT...BUT RECENT TRENDS IN MODELS GIVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...THOUGH SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS OR EVEN LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THE NEXT
MORE ORGANIZED BAND OR FRONT WILL SPREAD STEADIER RAIN TO THE
COAST BY 00Z AND INLAND IN THE EVENING HOURS...AND SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THAT BAND. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SPREADING ONSHORE THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS SUBSEQUENT WAVES OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH...AND OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY. A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OR A FRONT OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY LINGERING UNTIL JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THAT WILL GIVE A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT A MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS
CONTINUE. PT
&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS HAVE RISEN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS A 1001 MB LOW OUT NEAR 48N 130W MOVES TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND
THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS AND STALLS NEAR THE COAST. A TRAILING
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LOW END GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE WATERS
LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVE. THEN A STRONGER
LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 993 MB AS IT HEADS TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR MORE GALE FORCE WINDS BEFORE THE
LOW WEAKENS ALONG THE COAST AGAIN LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER RATHER STRONG PACIFIC FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR
POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS AGAIN.

SEAS ARE FINALLY FELL TO NEAR 9 FT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL RISE
BACK TO AROUND 10 TO 12 FT TONIGHT WITH THE FIRST LOW...THEN
HOVER IN THAT RANGE...POSSIBLY EVEN CLIMB ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO WITH
THE SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 222151
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
204 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MORE WET WEATHER AHEAD FOR THIS WEEK.  SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
COAST...KEEPING A THREAT FOR RAIN GOING INTO WED. THERE WILL BE SNOW
DOWN TO THE CASCADE PASS LEVELS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  A MORE
ROBUST SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST
LATER WED INTO THU. ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A COOL UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE DAYTIME HEATING AND A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR
MASS INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY.  THERE WERE A FEW
REPORTS OF PEA SIZED HAIL ON THE COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CURRENT
RADAR SHOWING SOME SMALL CELLS WITH 50DBZ ECHOES...SO WILL ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING.

DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT AND WED MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP WITH THE APPROACHING RIDGE
ALOFT. BEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FOUND BETWEEN 285K AND 290K
ISENTROPIC SURFACES FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL WED EVENING. THIS
COUPLED WITH RATHER GENEROUS QPF FORECASTS IN ALL THE MODELS GIVES
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN WED. DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL THU MORNING...AS LIFTING MECHANISM SWITCHES
TO DYNAMICS GENERATED BY A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE THU
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP POPS CATEGORICAL THROUGH THU. MODELS SHOW A
FAIRLY DEEP LOW APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND THU MORNING. MODELS
VARY SOME ON THE POSITION BUT NOT BY MUCH. THE LOWEST CENTRAL
PRESSURE RANGES FROM 989MB TO 995MB. EITHER WAY THE FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BRING FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST...AND
IT COULD BE BREEZY INLAND AS WELL ON THU.  SHOWERS LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONT THU AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER TROUGH DIGS IN TOWARDS
THE COAST.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW CASCADE PASSES INTO WED...POSSIBLY INTO
WED EVENING...BEFORE WARMER AIR PUSHES IN WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU.
OROGRAPHICS ARE NOT GREAT LIKE A WINTER TIME STORM...BUT MODEL QPF
COMBINED WITH MODERATE OROGRAPHICS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE
ABOUT 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET FOR TONIGHT AND WED.
MODELS GENERALLY FOCUS OF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS NORTH OF MOUNT
JEFFERSON INTO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE A SNOW ADVISORY
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND WED.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A
BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE
SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL
QUITE A WAY OUT...BUT RECENT TRENDS IN MODELS GIVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...THOUGH SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS OR EVEN LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THE NEXT
MORE ORGANIZED BAND OR FRONT WILL SPREAD STEADIER RAIN TO THE
COAST BY 00Z AND INLAND IN THE EVENING HOURS...AND SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THAT BAND. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SPREADING ONSHORE THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS SUBSEQUENT WAVES OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH...AND OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY. A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OR A FRONT OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY LINGERING UNTIL JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THAT WILL GIVE A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT A MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS
CONTINUE. PT
&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS HAVE RISEN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS A 1001 MB LOW OUT NEAR 48N 130W MOVES TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND
THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS AND STALLS NEAR THE COAST. A TRAILING
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LOW END GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE WATERS
LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVE. THEN A STRONGER
LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 993 MB AS IT HEADS TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR MORE GALE FORCE WINDS BEFORE THE
LOW WEAKENS ALONG THE COAST AGAIN LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER RATHER STRONG PACIFIC FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR
POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS AGAIN.

SEAS ARE FINALLY FELL TO NEAR 9 FT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL RISE
BACK TO AROUND 10 TO 12 FT TONIGHT WITH THE FIRST LOW...THEN
HOVER IN THAT RANGE...POSSIBLY EVEN CLIMB ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO WITH
THE SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 222151
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
204 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MORE WET WEATHER AHEAD FOR THIS WEEK.  SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
COAST...KEEPING A THREAT FOR RAIN GOING INTO WED. THERE WILL BE SNOW
DOWN TO THE CASCADE PASS LEVELS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  A MORE
ROBUST SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST
LATER WED INTO THU. ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A COOL UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE DAYTIME HEATING AND A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR
MASS INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY.  THERE WERE A FEW
REPORTS OF PEA SIZED HAIL ON THE COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CURRENT
RADAR SHOWING SOME SMALL CELLS WITH 50DBZ ECHOES...SO WILL ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING.

DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT AND WED MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP WITH THE APPROACHING RIDGE
ALOFT. BEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FOUND BETWEEN 285K AND 290K
ISENTROPIC SURFACES FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL WED EVENING. THIS
COUPLED WITH RATHER GENEROUS QPF FORECASTS IN ALL THE MODELS GIVES
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN WED. DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL THU MORNING...AS LIFTING MECHANISM SWITCHES
TO DYNAMICS GENERATED BY A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE THU
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP POPS CATEGORICAL THROUGH THU. MODELS SHOW A
FAIRLY DEEP LOW APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND THU MORNING. MODELS
VARY SOME ON THE POSITION BUT NOT BY MUCH. THE LOWEST CENTRAL
PRESSURE RANGES FROM 989MB TO 995MB. EITHER WAY THE FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BRING FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST...AND
IT COULD BE BREEZY INLAND AS WELL ON THU.  SHOWERS LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONT THU AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER TROUGH DIGS IN TOWARDS
THE COAST.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW CASCADE PASSES INTO WED...POSSIBLY INTO
WED EVENING...BEFORE WARMER AIR PUSHES IN WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU.
OROGRAPHICS ARE NOT GREAT LIKE A WINTER TIME STORM...BUT MODEL QPF
COMBINED WITH MODERATE OROGRAPHICS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE
ABOUT 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET FOR TONIGHT AND WED.
MODELS GENERALLY FOCUS OF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS NORTH OF MOUNT
JEFFERSON INTO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE A SNOW ADVISORY
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND WED.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A
BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE
SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL
QUITE A WAY OUT...BUT RECENT TRENDS IN MODELS GIVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...THOUGH SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS OR EVEN LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THE NEXT
MORE ORGANIZED BAND OR FRONT WILL SPREAD STEADIER RAIN TO THE
COAST BY 00Z AND INLAND IN THE EVENING HOURS...AND SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THAT BAND. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SPREADING ONSHORE THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS SUBSEQUENT WAVES OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH...AND OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY. A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OR A FRONT OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY LINGERING UNTIL JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THAT WILL GIVE A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT A MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS
CONTINUE. PT
&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS HAVE RISEN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS A 1001 MB LOW OUT NEAR 48N 130W MOVES TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND
THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS AND STALLS NEAR THE COAST. A TRAILING
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LOW END GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE WATERS
LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVE. THEN A STRONGER
LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 993 MB AS IT HEADS TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR MORE GALE FORCE WINDS BEFORE THE
LOW WEAKENS ALONG THE COAST AGAIN LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER RATHER STRONG PACIFIC FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR
POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS AGAIN.

SEAS ARE FINALLY FELL TO NEAR 9 FT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL RISE
BACK TO AROUND 10 TO 12 FT TONIGHT WITH THE FIRST LOW...THEN
HOVER IN THAT RANGE...POSSIBLY EVEN CLIMB ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO WITH
THE SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 222151
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
204 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MORE WET WEATHER AHEAD FOR THIS WEEK.  SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
COAST...KEEPING A THREAT FOR RAIN GOING INTO WED. THERE WILL BE SNOW
DOWN TO THE CASCADE PASS LEVELS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  A MORE
ROBUST SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST
LATER WED INTO THU. ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A COOL UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE DAYTIME HEATING AND A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR
MASS INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY.  THERE WERE A FEW
REPORTS OF PEA SIZED HAIL ON THE COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CURRENT
RADAR SHOWING SOME SMALL CELLS WITH 50DBZ ECHOES...SO WILL ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING.

DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT AND WED MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP WITH THE APPROACHING RIDGE
ALOFT. BEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FOUND BETWEEN 285K AND 290K
ISENTROPIC SURFACES FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL WED EVENING. THIS
COUPLED WITH RATHER GENEROUS QPF FORECASTS IN ALL THE MODELS GIVES
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN WED. DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL THU MORNING...AS LIFTING MECHANISM SWITCHES
TO DYNAMICS GENERATED BY A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE THU
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP POPS CATEGORICAL THROUGH THU. MODELS SHOW A
FAIRLY DEEP LOW APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND THU MORNING. MODELS
VARY SOME ON THE POSITION BUT NOT BY MUCH. THE LOWEST CENTRAL
PRESSURE RANGES FROM 989MB TO 995MB. EITHER WAY THE FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BRING FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST...AND
IT COULD BE BREEZY INLAND AS WELL ON THU.  SHOWERS LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONT THU AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER TROUGH DIGS IN TOWARDS
THE COAST.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW CASCADE PASSES INTO WED...POSSIBLY INTO
WED EVENING...BEFORE WARMER AIR PUSHES IN WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU.
OROGRAPHICS ARE NOT GREAT LIKE A WINTER TIME STORM...BUT MODEL QPF
COMBINED WITH MODERATE OROGRAPHICS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE
ABOUT 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET FOR TONIGHT AND WED.
MODELS GENERALLY FOCUS OF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS NORTH OF MOUNT
JEFFERSON INTO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE A SNOW ADVISORY
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND WED.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A
BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE
SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL
QUITE A WAY OUT...BUT RECENT TRENDS IN MODELS GIVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...THOUGH SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS OR EVEN LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THE NEXT
MORE ORGANIZED BAND OR FRONT WILL SPREAD STEADIER RAIN TO THE
COAST BY 00Z AND INLAND IN THE EVENING HOURS...AND SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THAT BAND. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SPREADING ONSHORE THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS SUBSEQUENT WAVES OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH...AND OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY. A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OR A FRONT OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY LINGERING UNTIL JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THAT WILL GIVE A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT A MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS
CONTINUE. PT
&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS HAVE RISEN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS A 1001 MB LOW OUT NEAR 48N 130W MOVES TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND
THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS AND STALLS NEAR THE COAST. A TRAILING
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LOW END GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE WATERS
LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVE. THEN A STRONGER
LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 993 MB AS IT HEADS TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR MORE GALE FORCE WINDS BEFORE THE
LOW WEAKENS ALONG THE COAST AGAIN LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER RATHER STRONG PACIFIC FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR
POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS AGAIN.

SEAS ARE FINALLY FELL TO NEAR 9 FT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL RISE
BACK TO AROUND 10 TO 12 FT TONIGHT WITH THE FIRST LOW...THEN
HOVER IN THAT RANGE...POSSIBLY EVEN CLIMB ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO WITH
THE SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KOTX 222123
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
223 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
An active and wet spring weather pattern can be expected across
the Inland Northwest. Showery conditions and breezy winds will
continue this evening and return on Wednesday. Some short-lived
valley snow is possible early Wednesday morning. The next Pacific
storm will bring rain on Thursday, with more showery conditions
Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday: In the wake of slowly departing cold front,
the rain and high mountain snow will decrease this evening across
the northern mountains. An upper level trough will pivot over the
region tonight as an 100+ kt upper level jet slides out of north
Idaho and into Montana. Anticipate a brief break in the weather
late this evening with some partial clearing. But it will be short
lived as the next weather system, a secondary shortwave off the
coast of Vancouver Island, will sheer inland overnight. This
secondary shortwave will cross Cascades by 12z and stretch to
north Idaho and weaken by 18z. The GFS seems more robust initially
with this feature, but both the NAM and GFS weaken it
significantly during the morning hours. The track of this feature
is not clear as the NAM takes a more northern track across
Canadian border, the GFS goes across central Washington, while the
ECMWF is right in between. The sensible weather is similar with
increasing clouds overnight and bands of showers developing during
the early morning hours. Given overnight low temperatures in the
low to mid 30s and snow levels down to 2-3k ft, could see some low
elevation snow showers Wednesday morning especially across extreme
eastern Washington and into north Idaho. Snow amounts are expected
to be light, but heavier showers could produce a short lived
intense snow or rain. Snow levels jump into the mountains by
midday and afternoon with valley rain and mountain snow as
instability increase with daytime heating. West to southwest winds
will increase Wednesday afternoon especially across the Columbia
Basin and Palouse with gusts to 30 mph. The winds and showers will
taper off quickly early Wednesday evening. Unseasonably cool
conditions will continue. /rfox.

Wednesday night through Friday...Satellite imagery near 150W
depicts a baroclinic leaf structure which will impact the forecast
area on Thursday. A very brief relatively dry period Wednesday
evening will give way to increasing chances of precipitation from
west to east as this system approaches the region. Model agreement
between the GFS and ECMWF is good regarding the character and
timing of this next wet storm. Initially manifesting itself as a
warm front which will be fed by a pacific moisture feed...a
negatively tilted short wave pushing the system along will nose
into the forecast area late in the day and decrease stability with
the cold air aloft moving over the warm front scoured low level
air mass.

What this portends is a round of widespread light stratiform rain
over just about all of the forecast area during the morning
hours..and into the afternoon over the far eastern and northern
zones...followed by showery conditions in the afternoon which may
be punctuated by thunderstorms on an axis defined from the north
Cascades to Colville and south to Lewiston. High temperatures will
be heavily impacted by precipitation and probably somewhat below
normal.

The deep parent trough (spawned from which will be the negatively
tilted minor shortwave) will then approach the coast keeping the
forecast area under the moist east flank baroclinic
region...setting the stage for a sustained period of frequent
showers over the eastern zones through Thursday night and Friday
in which the deep basin and Cascades lee zones will probably
experience less areal coverage but none-the-less still at risk for
showers. Temperatures on Friday under southerly flow aloft ahead
of this deep trough and with a more hit-and-miss shower regime
will probably climb to a few degrees warmer than Thursday...but at
best barely to seasonal averages and probably only in the deep
basin at that. /Fugazzi

Friday night through Tuesday...The region will be under the
influence of an upper level trough through the weekend. Two
distinct shortwaves, separated by a very brief shortwave ridge,
will bring a chance of showers to the Inland Northwest. The first
wave will transit the area Friday night into Saturday. Not much of
a break Saturday night before the next trough on Sunday. The
greater convective instability will be Sunday afternoon and
evening. Isolated thunderstorms may develop across the northeast
zones but confidence is not high enough for a mention in the
weather grids. Abundant cloud cover and showers will keep daytime
temperatures below seasonal normals.

For the start of the work week the 12z GFS is showing a much
flatter ridge than the ECMWF. The GFS solution would allow a deep
plume of moisture to slide over the region. While the more
amplified 00Z EC shunts this to our north with drier and warmer
conditions on tap, the new 12Z run is trending toward the wetter
GFS. Neither model has been stellar in run to run consistency so
will keep low chance PoPs in for Sunday night and Monday, then
continue to dry out the forecast for Monday night and Tuesday as
models are in better agreement in ridge building over the forecast
area. The ridge would lead to temperatures trending to the warm
side of climo. /Kelch

&&

..AVIATION... 18z TAFS: The cold front will continue to slowly
lift out of the region this afternoon. The main rain band will be
from the KGEG area into the northern mountains toward KSZT with
areas of MVFR cigs and mountains obscured. Showery conditions
will be found from KCOE and south to KLWS with a gradual CIGS
improvements this afternoon. Showers will be ending from KEAT to
KMWH, but winds will be on the increase with gusts to 25-35kt, and
reaching the KPUW area. The showers and winds will taper off after
03z, followed by a brief clearing. A secondary shortwave will
move through the region by 12z with a return of MVFR cigs and
light rain or snow showers. The showers will be short lived and
decrease from the west after 15z. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        33  51  39  54  39  55 /  20  60  20 100  40  40
Coeur d`Alene  32  50  38  53  38  55 /  40  60  20 100  70  50
Pullman        34  50  41  54  40  54 /  20  60  40 100  40  60
Lewiston       38  56  45  59  45  59 /  20  50  30 100  50  60
Colville       32  57  35  56  37  62 /  30  60  10 100  40  30
Sandpoint      32  49  36  50  38  55 /  50  60  30 100  70  50
Kellogg        32  45  36  50  37  55 /  90  70  40 100  70  70
Moses Lake     39  61  44  65  39  63 /  20  20  50  60  10  20
Wenatchee      42  60  45  63  42  62 /  20  20  60  60  20  20
Omak           33  59  39  59  37  63 /  20  20  20  90  20  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 221740 AAB
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1040 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
An active and wet spring weather pattern can be expected across
the Inland Northwest. A cold front will bring a good chance of
rain and high mountain snow today followed by breezy winds.
Scattered showers will fall on Wednesday. Another Pacific storm
will bring rain on Thursday, with more showery conditions Friday
and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Made a few adjustments to the forecast. The cold front is slowly
pivoting through eastern Washington with radar indicating the best
rain rates have shifted north and west of Spokane, from Wilbur to
Chewelah and Sandpoint. The front will continue lifting northeast
during the day. Meanwhile surface pressure gradients are
increasing across the central Cascades and gusty winds have
developed in the lower Basin. Anticipate the best wind gusts to
stretch from Wenatchee to the Moses Lake area and into the western
Palouse. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler than yesterday,
while snow levels tumble. Fresh snow was spotted on the web cam at
Sherman pass this morning and this trend will continue through the
day. /rfox.

&&

.AVATION...
18z TAFS: The cold front will continue to slowly lift out of the
region this afternoon. The main rain band will be from the KGEG
area into the northern mountains toward KSZT with areas of MVFR
cigs and mountains obscurred. Showery conditions will be found
from KCOE and south to KLWS with a gradual CIGS improvements this
afternoon. Showers will be ending from KEAT to KMWH, but winds
will be on the increase with gusts to 25-35kt, and reaching the
KPUW area. The showers and winds will taper off after 03z,
followed by a brief clearing. A secondary shortwve will move
through the region by 12z with a return of MVFR cigs and light
rain or snow showers. The showers will be short lived and decrease
from the west after 15z. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  34  50  40  53  39 /  90  20  60  20  90  60
Coeur d`Alene  52  33  50  39  52  38 /  90  40  60  20  90  70
Pullman        51  35  51  42  52  40 /  90  20  60  30  90  60
Lewiston       57  39  56  46  58  44 /  90  20  60  40  80  60
Colville       58  32  58  36  57  39 /  90  30  40  10  90  40
Sandpoint      54  33  49  37  51  40 /  90  50  60  20  90  60
Kellogg        52  32  46  37  49  38 / 100  90  70  40  80  60
Moses Lake     60  39  62  44  64  38 /  80  20  10  40  50  10
Wenatchee      59  42  60  45  62  41 /  80  20  20  50  50  10
Omak           58  34  61  39  60  37 /  80  20  20  20  90  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 221733
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1033 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE AND WET SPRING WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE INLAND NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW TODAY FOLLOWED BY BREEZY WINDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL FALL ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM
WILL BRING RAIN ON THURSDAY, WITH MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY
PIVOTING THROUGH EASTERN WASHINGTON WITH RADAR INDICATING THE BEST
RAIN RATES HAVE SHIFTED NORTH AND WEST OF SPOKANE, FROM WILBUR TO
CHEWELAH AND SANDPOINT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE
INCREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CASCADES AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE LOWER BASIN. ANTICIPATE THE BEST WIND GUSTS TO
STRETCH FROM WENATCHEE TO THE MOSES LAKE AREA AND INTO THE WESTERN
PALOUSE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY,
WHILE SNOW LEVELS TUMBLE. FRESH SNOW WAS SPOTTED ON THE WEB CAM AT
SHERMAN PASS THIS MORNING AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. /RFOX.

&&

.AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT
OUT OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN RAIN BAND WILL BE FROM
THE KGEG AREA INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TOWARD KSZT WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURRED. SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL BE FROUND
FROM KCOE TO KPUW TO KLWS WITH GRADUAL IMPROVING CIGS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING FROM KEAT TO KMWH BUT WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS, ALONG WITH KPUW. THE
SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER 03Z, FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF
CLEARING. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY 12Z
WITH A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. THE
SHOWERS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND DECREASE FROM THE WEST AFTER 15Z.
/RFOX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        51  34  50  40  53  39 /  90  20  60  20  90  60
COEUR D`ALENE  52  33  50  39  52  38 /  90  40  60  20  90  70
PULLMAN        51  35  51  42  52  40 /  90  20  60  30  90  60
LEWISTON       57  39  56  46  58  44 /  90  20  60  40  80  60
COLVILLE       58  32  58  36  57  39 /  90  30  40  10  90  40
SANDPOINT      54  33  49  37  51  40 /  90  50  60  20  90  60
KELLOGG        52  32  46  37  49  38 / 100  90  70  40  80  60
MOSES LAKE     60  39  62  44  64  38 /  80  20  10  40  50  10
WENATCHEE      59  42  60  45  62  41 /  80  20  20  50  50  10
OMAK           58  34  61  39  60  37 /  80  20  20  20  90  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

$$




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