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000
FXUS66 KOTX 171706
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1002 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong and wet Pacific weather system will result in widespread
rain Today and tonight, with windy conditions late tonight into
Friday. A weaker front will bring mainly windy conditions Saturday
afternoon and night. Easter Sunday should be mild and mainly dry.
Showers will be more prevalent for the first part of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today and tonight...Satellite reveals a deep fetch of
Pacific moisture ramming into the northwest...and being
efficiently enhanced into widespread light rain along a warm
front. For the rest of the day the front will be slow moving
enough and the moisture feed will be continuous...leading to not
much change from what is happening now...namely widespread rain
particularly across the eastern and northern reaches of the
forecast area. The east slopes of the Cascades and the deep basin
have so far escaped with only isolated showers...but these areas
will increasingly come under the gun as the day wears on as
heavier moisture and enhanced lift from the approaching cold
front increases shower coverage over these regions. The chance of
embedded thunderstorms over the Cascades this afternoon and
evening is very low but not null. The area of slight chance for
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening has been trimmed back to
the Cascades. High temperatures today at most locations have been
pruned by a couple degrees as well to account for no sun and
widespread precipitation. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A moist Pacific storm system will spread light to
moderate rain across the region today into this evening. Cigs and
vis will lower into MVFR/IFR category through about 06Z-10Z
before significant drying behind the cold front scours out the low
level moisture. Winds will then become gusty behind the front by
the early morning hours on Friday. /MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  38  56  33  63  37 / 100 100  30   0   0  20
Coeur d`Alene  50  38  55  32  63  39 / 100 100  50  10   0  30
Pullman        53  38  53  33  66  38 / 100 100  20   0   0  20
Lewiston       57  43  59  36  72  43 /  60 100  10   0   0  20
Colville       53  36  61  31  68  34 / 100 100  40  10  10  20
Sandpoint      48  38  54  31  62  36 / 100 100  60  20   0  30
Kellogg        50  37  52  32  62  38 / 100 100  60  10   0  50
Moses Lake     57  39  64  35  69  39 /  70  50  10   0  10  10
Wenatchee      58  40  62  41  66  43 /  70  40   0   0  10  10
Omak           54  36  62  33  67  34 /  70  70  10  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 171702
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1002 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AND WET PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH WINDY CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A WEAKER FRONT WILL BRING MAINLY WINDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. EASTER SUNDAY SHOULD BE MILD AND MAINLY DRY.
SHOWERS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...SATELLITE REVEALS A DEEP FETCH OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE RAMMING INTO THE NORTHWEST...AND BEING
EFFICIENTLY ENHANCED INTO WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ALONG A WARM
FRONT. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW MOVING
ENOUGH AND THE MOISTURE FEED WILL BE CONTINUOUS...LEADING TO NOT
MUCH CHANGE FROM WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW...NAMELY WIDESPREAD RAIN
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN REACHES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND THE DEEP BASIN
HAVE SO FAR ESCAPED WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS...BUT THESE AREAS
WILL INCREASINGLY COME UNDER THE GUN AS THE DAY WEARS ON AS
HEAVIER MOISTURE AND ENHANCED LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT INCREASES SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THESE REGIONS. THE CHANCE OF
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IS VERY LOW BUT NOT NULL. THE AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS BEEN TRIMMED BACK TO
THE CASCADES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AT MOST LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN
PRUNED BY A COUPLE DEGREES AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR NO SUN AND
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. /FUGAZZI

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A MOIST PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. CIGS AND
VIS WILL LOWER INTO MVFR/IFR CATEGORY THROUGH ABOUT 06Z-10Z
BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SCOURS OUT THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT BY
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. /MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        51  38  56  33  63  37 / 100 100  30   0   0  20
COEUR D`ALENE  50  38  55  32  63  39 / 100 100  50  10   0  30
PULLMAN        53  38  53  33  66  38 / 100 100  20   0   0  20
LEWISTON       57  43  59  36  72  43 /  60 100  10   0   0  20
COLVILLE       53  36  61  31  68  34 / 100 100  40  10  10  20
SANDPOINT      48  38  54  31  62  36 / 100 100  60  20   0  30
KELLOGG        50  37  52  32  62  38 / 100 100  60  10   0  50
MOSES LAKE     57  39  64  35  69  39 /  70  50  10   0  10  10
WENATCHEE      58  40  62  41  66  43 /  70  40   0   0  10  10
OMAK           54  36  62  33  67  34 /  70  70  10  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

$$



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000
FXUS66 KSEW 171611
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
910 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN THROUGH TODAY WITH
DECREASING SHOWERS TONIGHT. DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. ADDITIONAL FRONTS WILL ARRIVE LATER
SATURDAY AND LATER SUNDAY...KEEPING THE WEATHER GENERALLY WET. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING MOST
AREAS. SHOWERS WILL TAPER PRETTY FAST TONIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY FOR
A MOSTLY DRY DAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY LATER IN
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVELS DRY.

A SECOND FRONT WILL BRING RAIN LATER SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE IDEA OF RAIN REACHING THE COAST AROUND
MID-MORNING AND SPREADING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WILL
PROBABLY BE A MAINLY DRY DAY IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. A THIRD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
SLOW MOVING AND NOT SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA UNTIL AROUND SUNDAY
NIGHT OR EVEN MONDAY. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FORM OVER
THE NE PAC ON MON WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH WESTERN WA
FOR MORE RAIN. THE LOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT INLAND TUE THROUGH
WED FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL AND
UNSTABLE WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR 3000 FT. HOWEVER WITH THE LOW
OVERHEAD WE SHOULD HAVE GOOD MIXING AND WILL PROBABLY SEE AFTERNOON
SUNBREAKS. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE EXCEPTION IS THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF
THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE NEAR OSO WHERE A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THIS RIVER AS A
RESULT OF WATER POOLED BEHIND THE DEBRIS DAM THAT PARTIALLY BLOCKS
THE RIVER.

THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH NEAR ARLINGTON IS FORECAST TO
RISE TODAY WITH A CREST JUST UNDER 9 FEET THIS EVENING. THE RIVER
LEVEL WILL BEGIN FALLING OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE FALLING ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE SLIDE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF ABOUT ONE INCH.

ADDITIONAL FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE SLIDE AREA LATER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER TROF OFFSHORE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NW LATER TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW BECOME STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXPECT A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE /PSCZ/ TO QUICKLY DEVELOP
BETWEEN KAWO AND KPAE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TODAY. THE PSCZ SHOULD
BECOME QUASISTATIONARY NEAR THE KING/SNOHOMISH COUNTY BORDER THIS
EVENING.

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 1-3K FT RANGE DURING MUCH OF
THE DAY TODAY. RAIN WILL REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE 2-4SM RANGE AT TIMES.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT ABOUT 130 NM OFFSHORE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO RISE TO GALE FORCE
OVER PARTS OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA BEHIND THE FRONT. A 1019 MB
HIGH ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST AND LOWER PRES E OF THE CASCADES
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ON FRI. EXPECT A STRONG COLD FRONT
TO IMPACT THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF HIGH SURF CONDITIONS ON THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE WAVE WATCH MODEL INDICATED THAT
SEAS COULD REACH 15 TO 20 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST SLIGHTLY UNDERCUTS GUIDANCE.
IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE...WILL NEED TO BUMP UP WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
     STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL OTHER WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






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000
FXUS66 KPQR 171606
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
858 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IN THE NE PACIFIC WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE COLD POOL ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT
SETTLES OVER REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER NEAR
THE CASCADE PASSES THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND OCCURS FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. ANOTHER FRONT
IMPACTS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON SATURDAY. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...RAIN IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING TO
ENCOMPASS EVERYWHERE BUT THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES. MORNING SOUNDING
FROM SALEM INDICATED THAT SOME LOWER LEVEL SATURATION WAS STILL
NEEDED AND NOW THIS HAS OCCURRED. THERE IS A DECENT MOISTURE PLUME
THAT HAD ORIGINS IN THE SUBTROPICS FOCUSED ON NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
BUT SOME OF IT (0.90 PW ON KLSE 12Z SOUNDING) HAS BEEN ENTRAINED
THIS FAR NORTH. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH SOMEWHAT WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL
MODERATE RAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST RAP/HRRR PUT THE COLD
FRONT ON THE COAST AROUND 0Z...A FEW HOURS THEREAFTER IN THE
VALLEY....THOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIP IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
EXPECT SOME UPTICK IN PRECIP WITH THE FRONT BUT NOT EXPECTING A REAL
BIG KICK AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STEEPER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES DRAG BY TO OUR NORTH. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS.

AFTER A MOSTLY DRY FRIDAY...MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
SATURDAY BEING A WET AFTERNOON INLAND...SO EXPECT POPS TO GO UP
DURING THIS TIME. LESS IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE BUT MAYBE SLIGHTLY
BETTER DYNAMICS BUT THIS WILL BRING A SHORTER PERIOD OF LIGHTER RAIN
THAN TODAY. /KMD

&&

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW EARLY
THIS MORNING CONSISTS OF A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE
WASHINGTON AND OREGON CASCADES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A FAIRLY SHARP DEVELOPING SHORT-WAVE NEAR 46N 134W AS OF 09Z
WITH A MOISTURE FETCH ALONG 40N EXTENDING OUT BEYOND 160W. BLENDED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGE VALID 07Z INDICATED AROUND AN INCH
ALONG THE COAST AND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WITHIN THE MOISTURE FETCH. NWS
KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR HAS STEADILY FILLED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
3-HR PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH 08Z HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND A TENTH OR LESS ALONG THE COAST AND
OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS AND LOWLANDS.

LATEST MODEL RUNS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING FRONTAL TIMING.
RAIN RATES SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
INCREASING INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT AND STRENGTHENING 700 MB
AND 850 MB WLY WIND. GFS AND ECMWF IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE COLD FRONT REACHING THE S WA AND FAR N OREGON COAST 21Z
TO 00Z FRI. THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED A BIT...COMING MORE IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS GFS TIMING. THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE CASCADES AROUND 06Z
FRI. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN THE COLUMBIA
GORGE EAST OF KCZK LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR IN THE EVENING.
FINALLY...THE COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES
OVER WRN WA AND NWRN OREGON THU NIGHT. 850 MB OROGRAPHIC WLY FLOW OF
10-20 KT INTO THE CASCADES WILL ENHANCE PRECIP RATES IN THE 00Z-06Z
FRI TIME FRAME...BUT SNOW LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR THE
PASSES UNTIL AFTER 06Z WHEN SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGINS TO WANE.

SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRI...BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE S WA AND EXTREME N OREGON CASCADES AND
FOOTHILLS FRI MORNING. 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE
FRI AFTERNOON...ABOUT +2C OVER KPDX PER THE GFS AND +3C ON THE ECMWF.
HOWEVER...HIGH SUN ANGLE FOR MID-APRIL WILL WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AND ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO BE AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY
LOOKED TO BE A DRY A COUPLE DAYS AGO. HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN THE FASTEST ALL ALONG THE LATEST GFS HAS SEEMED TO CAUGHT UP
WITH IT. PRECIP EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST BY 18Z SAT...OR EVEN A
LITTLE SOONER...AND SPREAD INLAND THEREAFTER. BOOSTED POPS
SUBSTANTIALLY SAT AFTERNOON AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIP DIMINISHES SAT
NIGHT AS WEAK 500 MB RIDGING TRIES TO FORM OVER THE PAC NW. A
DEEPENING GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH WILL HELP AMPLIFY THE RIDGE A BIT
MORE SUN. SW WA ZONES STILL VULNERABLE TO SOME LIGHT PRECIP
SUNDAY...BUT THE MORE SOUTH ONE TRAVELS THE MORE SUNSHINE THERE
SHOULD BE. THE ECMWF AND GFS DRAG A WEAK FRONT THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT
OR MON MORNING. BEYOND MON...THE DEEP UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER THE NE
PAC FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO COOL...SHOWERY
CONDITIONS THE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN THE
CASCADES. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND AND EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MVFR ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST WITH VIS AND
EVENTUALLY WITH CIGS. EXPECT IFR AT TIMES AS WELL.  THE COAST CAN
CONTINUE TO EXPECT OF MIX OF EVERYTHING TODAY BUT MVFR AND IFR WILL
BE PREDOMINANT...WITH PERSISTENT IFR CIGS INTO THE COAST RANGE. COLD
FRONT WITH SHIFT TO W WINDS AND WILL PUSH ONSHORE AROUND 0Z...AND
REACH THE INTERIOR BY AROUND 2-3Z FRI. MTNS WILL BE FREQUENTLY
OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD. RETURNING TO VFR WITH A FEW SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE CASCADES. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME MVFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS THERE IS SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE COLUMBIA RIVER...BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN GENERALLY UNSTABLE TO
SUPPORT VFR.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CONDITIONS AND EXPECT CIGS DOWN TO 1500 FT
OR LOWER AT TIMES AS RAIN INTENSITY REMAINS STEADY TODAY. HAVE POCKETS
OF IFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE TERMINAL AS WELL. COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REACH
OPS AREA AROUND 03Z FRI...WITH SHIFT TO W WINDS. HEADING BACK TO VFR
BEHIND THE FRONT. /KMD

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE TOWARDS MIDDAY BEFORE
TURNING W TO NW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT
SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WE WILL BE
WATCHING TRENDS CLOSELY AS THERE IS AN CHANCE WIND GUSTS COULD
PUSH 35 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
A GALE WARNING DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. EITHER
WAY...SEAS SHOULD BUILD INTO THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE THIS EVENING SO
A SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WAS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN
WATERS WHERE SEAS WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF TOPPING OUT FOR
SEVERAL HOURS AROUND 10 FT.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...ANOTHER FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS MIDDAY SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS. LIKELY THE BIGGEST STORY WITH THIS
FRONT IS THAT A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL FOLLOW LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. 15 TO 20 FT SEAS APPEAR LIKELY...WITH THE LATEST
MODEL RUN OR TWO TRENDING HIGHER. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
     PDT THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 AM TO
     9 AM PDT FRIDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KPQR 171606
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
858 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IN THE NE PACIFIC WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE COLD POOL ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT
SETTLES OVER REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER NEAR
THE CASCADE PASSES THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND OCCURS FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. ANOTHER FRONT
IMPACTS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON SATURDAY. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...RAIN IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING TO
ENCOMPASS EVERYWHERE BUT THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES. MORNING SOUNDING
FROM SALEM INDICATED THAT SOME LOWER LEVEL SATURATION WAS STILL
NEEDED AND NOW THIS HAS OCCURRED. THERE IS A DECENT MOISTURE PLUME
THAT HAD ORIGINS IN THE SUBTROPICS FOCUSED ON NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
BUT SOME OF IT (0.90 PW ON KLSE 12Z SOUNDING) HAS BEEN ENTRAINED
THIS FAR NORTH. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH SOMEWHAT WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL
MODERATE RAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST RAP/HRRR PUT THE COLD
FRONT ON THE COAST AROUND 0Z...A FEW HOURS THEREAFTER IN THE
VALLEY....THOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIP IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
EXPECT SOME UPTICK IN PRECIP WITH THE FRONT BUT NOT EXPECTING A REAL
BIG KICK AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STEEPER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES DRAG BY TO OUR NORTH. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS.

AFTER A MOSTLY DRY FRIDAY...MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
SATURDAY BEING A WET AFTERNOON INLAND...SO EXPECT POPS TO GO UP
DURING THIS TIME. LESS IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE BUT MAYBE SLIGHTLY
BETTER DYNAMICS BUT THIS WILL BRING A SHORTER PERIOD OF LIGHTER RAIN
THAN TODAY. /KMD

&&

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW EARLY
THIS MORNING CONSISTS OF A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE
WASHINGTON AND OREGON CASCADES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A FAIRLY SHARP DEVELOPING SHORT-WAVE NEAR 46N 134W AS OF 09Z
WITH A MOISTURE FETCH ALONG 40N EXTENDING OUT BEYOND 160W. BLENDED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGE VALID 07Z INDICATED AROUND AN INCH
ALONG THE COAST AND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WITHIN THE MOISTURE FETCH. NWS
KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR HAS STEADILY FILLED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
3-HR PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH 08Z HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND A TENTH OR LESS ALONG THE COAST AND
OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS AND LOWLANDS.

LATEST MODEL RUNS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING FRONTAL TIMING.
RAIN RATES SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
INCREASING INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT AND STRENGTHENING 700 MB
AND 850 MB WLY WIND. GFS AND ECMWF IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE COLD FRONT REACHING THE S WA AND FAR N OREGON COAST 21Z
TO 00Z FRI. THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED A BIT...COMING MORE IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS GFS TIMING. THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE CASCADES AROUND 06Z
FRI. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN THE COLUMBIA
GORGE EAST OF KCZK LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR IN THE EVENING.
FINALLY...THE COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES
OVER WRN WA AND NWRN OREGON THU NIGHT. 850 MB OROGRAPHIC WLY FLOW OF
10-20 KT INTO THE CASCADES WILL ENHANCE PRECIP RATES IN THE 00Z-06Z
FRI TIME FRAME...BUT SNOW LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR THE
PASSES UNTIL AFTER 06Z WHEN SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGINS TO WANE.

SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRI...BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE S WA AND EXTREME N OREGON CASCADES AND
FOOTHILLS FRI MORNING. 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE
FRI AFTERNOON...ABOUT +2C OVER KPDX PER THE GFS AND +3C ON THE ECMWF.
HOWEVER...HIGH SUN ANGLE FOR MID-APRIL WILL WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AND ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO BE AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY
LOOKED TO BE A DRY A COUPLE DAYS AGO. HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN THE FASTEST ALL ALONG THE LATEST GFS HAS SEEMED TO CAUGHT UP
WITH IT. PRECIP EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST BY 18Z SAT...OR EVEN A
LITTLE SOONER...AND SPREAD INLAND THEREAFTER. BOOSTED POPS
SUBSTANTIALLY SAT AFTERNOON AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIP DIMINISHES SAT
NIGHT AS WEAK 500 MB RIDGING TRIES TO FORM OVER THE PAC NW. A
DEEPENING GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH WILL HELP AMPLIFY THE RIDGE A BIT
MORE SUN. SW WA ZONES STILL VULNERABLE TO SOME LIGHT PRECIP
SUNDAY...BUT THE MORE SOUTH ONE TRAVELS THE MORE SUNSHINE THERE
SHOULD BE. THE ECMWF AND GFS DRAG A WEAK FRONT THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT
OR MON MORNING. BEYOND MON...THE DEEP UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER THE NE
PAC FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO COOL...SHOWERY
CONDITIONS THE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN THE
CASCADES. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND AND EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MVFR ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST WITH VIS AND
EVENTUALLY WITH CIGS. EXPECT IFR AT TIMES AS WELL.  THE COAST CAN
CONTINUE TO EXPECT OF MIX OF EVERYTHING TODAY BUT MVFR AND IFR WILL
BE PREDOMINANT...WITH PERSISTENT IFR CIGS INTO THE COAST RANGE. COLD
FRONT WITH SHIFT TO W WINDS AND WILL PUSH ONSHORE AROUND 0Z...AND
REACH THE INTERIOR BY AROUND 2-3Z FRI. MTNS WILL BE FREQUENTLY
OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD. RETURNING TO VFR WITH A FEW SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE CASCADES. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME MVFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS THERE IS SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE COLUMBIA RIVER...BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN GENERALLY UNSTABLE TO
SUPPORT VFR.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CONDITIONS AND EXPECT CIGS DOWN TO 1500 FT
OR LOWER AT TIMES AS RAIN INTENSITY REMAINS STEADY TODAY. HAVE POCKETS
OF IFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE TERMINAL AS WELL. COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REACH
OPS AREA AROUND 03Z FRI...WITH SHIFT TO W WINDS. HEADING BACK TO VFR
BEHIND THE FRONT. /KMD

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE TOWARDS MIDDAY BEFORE
TURNING W TO NW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT
SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WE WILL BE
WATCHING TRENDS CLOSELY AS THERE IS AN CHANCE WIND GUSTS COULD
PUSH 35 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
A GALE WARNING DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. EITHER
WAY...SEAS SHOULD BUILD INTO THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE THIS EVENING SO
A SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WAS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN
WATERS WHERE SEAS WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF TOPPING OUT FOR
SEVERAL HOURS AROUND 10 FT.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...ANOTHER FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS MIDDAY SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS. LIKELY THE BIGGEST STORY WITH THIS
FRONT IS THAT A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL FOLLOW LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. 15 TO 20 FT SEAS APPEAR LIKELY...WITH THE LATEST
MODEL RUN OR TWO TRENDING HIGHER. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
     PDT THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 AM TO
     9 AM PDT FRIDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KOTX 171208
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
508 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong and wet Pacific weather system will result in widespread
rain Thursday and Thursday night, with windy conditions late
tonight into Friday. A weaker front will bring mainly windy
conditions Saturday afternoon and night. Easter Sunday should be
mild and mainly dry. Showers will be more prevalent for the first
part of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM FEATURING MODERATE RAINFALL TODAY AND
GUSTY WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

Today through Friday: Satellite imagery shows a very dynamic low
pressure system pushing into western WA at around 2:30 AM. The
cold front with this system is beginning to cross 130W with well
defined darkening behind the front noticeable on the water vapor
imagery. Strong isentropic ascent will develop ahead of the front
across eastern WA and into the ID Panhandle. All areas will see a
good chance for some rain this morning into the afternoon.
Heaviest accumulations will likely be across the eastern two-
thirds of the forecast area as we will see some downsloping taking
place along the lee side of the Cascades. Strong frontal forcing
is expected to result in a period of moderate to heavy rainfall
along the cold front late this afternoon into this evening. Mid
level laps rates will steepen to 7-9 C/KM between 700-500 mbs.
This destabilization will result in roughly 200 J/KG of CAPE with
cloud tops potentially topping out above 20 kft. The instability
is decent, but I would like to see a bit more to have higher
confidence for thunderstorms. Nevertheless, the dynamics will be
quite strong with this system and could be enough to overcome the
instability deficiencies. Best chances for thunderstorms will be
right along and behind the cold front. This will mainly be for the
late afternoon and evening hours for the western portion of the
forecast area and shifting eastward overnight as the upper level
shortwave trough moves into the region.

Gusty winds can be anticipate with the front overnight. 850 mb
winds will be up around 30-40 kts. There shouldn`t be a problem
mixing down these stronger winds with how strong the front will be and
advisory level strength will be possible; however, confidence at
this time is too low for a highlight. Any thunderstorms that do
develop will also be capable of producing even stronger gusts.
Most areas are expected to see sustained winds of 20-30 mph with
gusts up to 40 mph possible for late tonight and continuing into
Friday morning. Winds will remain breezy into Friday afternoon,
but strongest winds will likely occur with and directly behind the
front.

A cold and rainy spring day is expected today with highs only
getting into the 50s, and some areas may not warm above the 50
degree mark especially in the Panhandle. Temperatures will remain
below normal on Friday, but should be warmer compared to today
with a good chance for sun as much drier air filters in behind
this system. /SVH

Friday Night through Monday: In the wake of the Thursday/Friday
rain, skies will clear Friday night and winds will subside,
allowing for fog formation in the usual valley locations. There`s
a decent amount of dry air that moves in behind the cold front
though, so the fog and low clouds shouldn`t be very extensive.
Otherwise Saturday looks to be a warm and sunny day. But this is
short-lived as the next Pacific system will reach the Cascade
crest by the late afternoon. This front is entirely different
beast than our Thursday/Friday system. Instead, moisture is
largely confined in the mid-layers of the atmosphere. This favors
just light precipitation over the mountains and nothing over the
Basin.

The more noteworthy part of this system will be the winds. The
cold front will pass through the area Saturday afternoon/evening
bringing gusty winds to the area. At this point I went with gusts
to 30 or 35 mph. We`ll need to keep an eye on this forecast as
the winds could be a bit stronger than this.

Easter Sunday looks mostly dry with more sun than clouds. The
exception will be over the Cascades, the northeast mountains, and
the northern Panhandle, where a few showers may develop.

Monday will see yet another weak Pacific front. Similar to its
predecessor, the majority of the moisture will be in the mid and
upper atmosphere. So again, mountains will be favored with little
or nothing in the lower elevations, especially in the Basin.  RJ

Tuesday through Thursday: A more unsettled weather pattern will
overspread the Inland Northwest for the early/middle portion of
next week. A large scale trough, which is fairly well agreed upon
by the extended models, will begin to move inland by Tuesday, with
another round of precipitation affecting much of the region. How
much is still a little more in question, but the potential exists
for this trough to briefly tap into a better moisture tap in
southwest flow, which could give some heavier rainfall amounts to mainly
eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle Tuesday and/or Tuesday
night. Afterwards, the better chances for precipitation would move
to the east. While the more organized precipitation would be east
of the region by Wednesday, the cold pool aloft associated with
the larger trough will still be overhead. This would promote more
scattered afternoon showers during the afternoon hours, with a
drying trend going into Thursday.

With regards to temperatures, readings look to remain on the cool
side with precipitation Tuesday (3 to 5 degrees below normal),
with maybe a slight warming trend Wednesday and Thursday. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A moist Pacific storm system will spread light to
moderate rain across the region today into this evening. Cigs and
vis will lower into MVFR/IFR category through about 06Z-10Z
before significant drying behind the cold front scours out the low
level moisture. Winds will then become gusty behind the front by
the early morning hours on Friday. There is enough forcing and
instability with this system that some isolated thunderstorms will
be possible as the upper level trough moves through late this
afternoon into tonight; however, confidence is too low to include
thunderstorms in the TAFs at this time. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  38  56  33  63  37 / 100 100  30   0   0  20
Coeur d`Alene  50  38  55  32  63  39 / 100 100  50  10   0  30
Pullman        54  38  53  33  66  38 /  60 100  20   0   0  20
Lewiston       60  43  59  36  72  43 /  30 100  10   0   0  20
Colville       54  36  61  31  68  34 / 100 100  40  10  10  20
Sandpoint      49  38  54  31  62  36 / 100 100  60  20   0  30
Kellogg        50  37  52  32  62  38 /  90 100  60  10   0  50
Moses Lake     58  39  64  35  69  39 /  90  50  10   0  10  10
Wenatchee      60  40  62  41  66  43 /  80  40   0   0  10  10
Omak           56  36  62  33  67  34 /  80  70  10  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 171023
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN THROUGH TODAY WITH
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF TONIGHT. DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. ADDITIONAL FRONTS WILL ARRIVE
LATER SATURDAY AND LATER SUNDAY...KEEPING THE WEATHER GENERALLY WET.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AS
A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. THE WARM FRONT IS LIFTING
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW THIS AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT
THIS EVENING WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. A PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE CENTRAL SOUND. SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE PSCZ MAY LINGER
INTO FRI MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUN BREAKS WITH HIGHS BACK NEAR 60
DEGREES. THE RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY AS OUR NEXT
FRONT ARRIVES. SO EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH
RAIN SPREADING INTO THE INTERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK RIDGING MAY BRING ANOTHER DRY DAY ON
SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND SUN NIGHT. 33

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FORM OVER THE NE PAC ON MON
WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH WESTERN WA FOR MORE RAIN.
THE LOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT INLAND TUE THROUGH WED FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL AND UNSTABLE WITH
SNOW LEVELS NEAR 3000 FT. HOWEVER WITH THE LOW OVERHEAD WE SHOULD
HAVE GOOD MIXING AND WILL PROBABLY SEE AFTERNOON SUNBREAKS. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE EXCEPTION IS THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF
THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE NEAR OSO WHERE A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THIS RIVER AS A
RESULT OF WATER POOLED BEHIND THE DEBRIS DAM THAT PARTIALLY BLOCKS
THE RIVER.

THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH NEAR ARLINGTON IS FORECAST TO
RISE TODAY WITH A CREST JUST UNDER 9 FEET THIS EVENING. THE RIVER
LEVEL WILL BEGIN FALLING OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE FALLING ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

AN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE SLIDE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT ONE INCH.

ADDITIONAL FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE SLIDE AREA LATER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH
WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. TRAILING COLD FRONT
REACHING THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON MOVING THROUGH THE INTERIOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INLAND TONIGHT WITH THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

CEILINGS GENERALLY IN THE 1000 TO 2000 FOOT RANGE WITH LOCAL
CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET AND VISIBILITIES 2 TO 4 SM IN LIGHT RAIN
AND FOG. SMALL IMPROVEMENT IN THE CEILINGS LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS IMPROVING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A 2500 FOOT
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYER WITH ANOTHER BROKEN LAYER 4000-5000 FEET.
PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE FORMING EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET AND VISIBILITIES 3-5SM IN SHOWERS NEAR
KPAE.

KSEA...CEILINGS 1000-2000 FEET WITH VISIBILITIES 3-5 SM AT TIMES
THIS MORNING. SMALL IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. FRONTAL PASSAGE
AROUND 23Z WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING POST FRONTAL. SOUTHERLY WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS NEAR AND JUST AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS. GALE FORCE WINDS
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE STRAIT EARLY
THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE GALE FORCE WINDS LASTING INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS EASING FRIDAY MORNING. NEXT FRONT ARRIVING SATURDAY FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. LARGE SWELL TRAIN FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SWELL BUILDING TO AROUND 15
FEET ON SUNDAY. A WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
     STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE.

PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.


&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KOTX 170956
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
256 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong and wet Pacific weather system will result in widespread
rain Thursday and Thursday night, with windy conditions late
tonight into Friday. A weaker front will bring mainly windy
conditions Saturday afternoon and night. Easter Sunday should be
mild and mainly dry. Showers will be more prevalent for the first
part of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM FEATURING MODERATE RAINFALL TODAY AND
GUSTY WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

Today through Friday: Satellite imagery shows a very dynamic low
pressure system pushing into western WA at around 2:30 AM. The
cold front with this system is beginning to cross 130W with well
defined darkening behind the front noticeable on the water vapor
imagery. Strong isentropic ascent will develop ahead of the front
across eastern WA and into the ID Panhandle. All areas will see a
good chance for some rain this morning into the afternoon.
Heaviest accumulations will likely be across the eastern two-
thirds of the forecast area as we will see some downsloping taking
place along the lee side of the Cascades. Strong frontal forcing
is expected to result in a period of moderate to heavy rainfall
along the cold front late this afternoon into this evening. Mid
level laps rates will steepen to 7-9 C/KM between 700-500 mbs.
This destabilization will result in roughly 200 J/KG of CAPE with
cloud tops potentially topping out above 20 kft. The instability
is decent, but I would like to see a bit more to have higher
confidence for thunderstorms. Nevertheless, the dynamics will be
quite strong with this system and could be enough to overcome the
instability deficiencies. Best chances for thunderstorms will be
right along and behind the cold front. This will mainly be for the
late afternoon and evening hours for the western portion of the
forecast area and shifting eastward overnight as the upper level
shortwave trough moves into the region.

Gusty winds can be anticipate with the front overnight. 850 mb
winds will be up around 30-40 kts. There shouldn`t be a problem
mixing down these stronger winds with how strong the front will be and
advisory level strength will be possible; however, confidence at
this time is too low for a highlight. Any thunderstorms that do
develop will also be capable of producing even stronger gusts.
Most areas are expected to see sustained winds of 20-30 mph with
gusts up to 40 mph possible for late tonight and continuing into
Friday morning. Winds will remain breezy into Friday afternoon,
but strongest winds will likely occur with and directly behind the
front.

A cold and rainy spring day is expected today with highs only
getting into the 50s, and some areas may not warm above the 50
degree mark especially in the Panhandle. Temperatures will remain
below normal on Friday, but should be warmer compared to today
with a good chance for sun as much drier air filters in behind
this system. /SVH

Friday Night through Monday: In the wake of the Thursday/Friday
rain, skies will clear Friday night and winds will subside,
allowing for fog formation in the usual valley locations. There`s
a decent amount of dry air that moves in behind the cold front
though, so the fog and low clouds shouldn`t be very extensive.
Otherwise Saturday looks to be a warm and sunny day. But this is
short-lived as the next Pacific system will reach the Cascade
crest by the late afternoon. This front is entirely different
beast than our Thursday/Friday system. Instead, moisture is
largely confined in the mid-layers of the atmosphere. This favors
just light precipitation over the mountains and nothing over the
Basin.

The more noteworthy part of this system will be the winds. The
cold front will pass through the area Saturday afternoon/evening
bringing gusty winds to the area. At this point I went with gusts
to 30 or 35 mph. We`ll need to keep an eye on this forecast as
the winds could be a bit stronger than this.

Easter Sunday looks mostly dry with more sun than clouds. The
exception will be over the Cascades, the northeast mountains, and
the northern Panhandle, where a few showers may develop.

Monday will see yet another weak Pacific front. Similar to its
predecessor, the majority of the moisture will be in the mid and
upper atmosphere. So again, mountains will be favored with little
or nothing in the lower elevations, especially in the Basin.  RJ

Tuesday through Thursday: A more unsettled weather pattern will
overspread the Inland Northwest for the early/middle portion of
next week. A large scale trough, which is fairly well agreed upon
by the extended models, will begin to move inland by Tuesday, with
another round of precipitation affecting much of the region. How
much is still a little more in question, but the potential exists
for this trough to briefly tap into a better moisture tap in
southwest flow, which could give some heavier rainfall amounts to mainly
eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle Tuesday and/or Tuesday
night. Afterwards, the better chances for precipitation would move
to the east. While the more organized precipitation would be east
of the region by Wednesday, the cold pool aloft associated with
the larger trough will still be overhead. This would promote more
scattered afternoon showers during the afternoon hours, with a
drying trend going into Thursday.

With regards to temperatures, readings look to remain on the cool
side with precipitation Tuesday (3 to 5 degrees below normal),
with maybe a slight warming trend Wednesday and Thursday. ty

&&

.AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: A wave pressing along the Cascades is
pushing moisture over and increasing cloud clover for the
TAF sites. This moisture is mainly upper level and not creating
any issues or precip for the sites. Cigs in these areas are
hovering around MVFR and will continue to as another more moist
system moves into the region around 18Z and bringing rain showers
to the Inland Northwest. The region can expect to be under the
influence of rain showers through the period. /JDC


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  38  56  33  63  37 / 100 100  30   0   0  20
Coeur d`Alene  50  38  55  32  63  39 / 100 100  50  10   0  30
Pullman        54  38  53  33  66  38 /  60 100  20   0   0  20
Lewiston       60  43  59  36  72  43 /  30 100  10   0   0  20
Colville       54  36  61  31  68  34 / 100 100  40  10  10  20
Sandpoint      49  38  54  31  62  36 / 100 100  60  20   0  30
Kellogg        50  37  52  32  62  38 /  90 100  60  10   0  50
Moses Lake     58  39  64  35  69  39 /  90  50  10   0  10  10
Wenatchee      60  40  62  41  66  43 /  80  40   0   0  10  10
Omak           56  36  62  33  67  34 /  80  70  10  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 170912
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
211 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IN THE NE PACIFIC WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE COLD POOL ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT
SETTLES OVER REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER NEAR
THE CASCADE PASSES THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND OCCURS FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. ANOTHER FRONT
IMPACTS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON SATURDAY. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW EARLY
THIS MORNING CONSISTS OF A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE
WASHINGTON AND OREGON CASCADES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A FAIRLY SHARP DEVELOPING SHORT-WAVE NEAR 46N 134W AS OF 09Z
WITH A MOISTURE FETCH ALONG 40N EXTENDING OUT BEYOND 160W. BLENDED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGE VALID 07Z INDICATED AROUND AN INCH
ALONG THE COAST AND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WITHIN THE MOISTURE FETCH. NWS
KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR HAS STEADILY FILLED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
3-HR PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH 08Z HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND A TENTH OR LESS ALONG THE COAST AND
OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS AND LOWLANDS.

LATEST MODEL RUNS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING FRONTAL TIMING.
RAIN RATES SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
INCREASING INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT AND STRENGTHENING 700 MB
AND 850 MB WLY WIND. GFS AND ECMWF IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE COLD FRONT REACHING THE S WA AND FAR N OREGON COAST 21Z
TO 00Z FRI. THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED A BIT...COMING MORE IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS GFS TIMING. THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE CASCADES AROUND 06Z
FRI. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN THE COLUMBIA
GORGE EAST OF KCZK LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR IN THE EVENING.
FINALLY...THE COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES
OVER WRN WA AND NWRN OREGON THU NIGHT. 850 MB OROGRAPHIC WLY FLOW OF
10-20 KT INTO THE CASCADES WILL ENHANCE PRECIP RATES IN THE 00Z-06Z
FRI TIME FRAME...BUT SNOW LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR THE
PASSES UNTIL AFTER 06Z WHEN SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGINS TO WANE.

SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRI...BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE S WA AND EXTREME N OREGON CASCADES AND
FOOTHILLS FRI MORNING. 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE
FRI AFTERNOON...ABOUT +2C OVER KPDX PER THE GFS AND +3C ON THE ECMWF.
HOWEVER...HIGH SUN ANGLE FOR MID-APRIL WILL WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AND ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO BE AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY
LOOKED TO BE A DRY A COUPLE DAYS AGO. HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN THE FASTEST ALL ALONG THE LATEST GFS HAS SEEMED TO CAUGHT UP
WITH IT. PRECIP EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST BY 18Z SAT...OR EVEN A
LITTLE SOONER...AND SPREAD INLAND THEREAFTER. BOOSTED POPS
SUBSTANTIALLY SAT AFTERNOON AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIP DIMINISHES SAT
NIGHT AS WEAK 500 MB RIDGING TRIES TO FORM OVER THE PAC NW. A
DEEPENING GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH WILL HELP AMPLIFY THE RIDGE A BIT
MORE SUN. SW WA ZONES STILL VULNERABLE TO SOME LIGHT PRECIP
SUNDAY...BUT THE MORE SOUTH ONE TRAVELS THE MORE SUNSHINE THERE
SHOULD BE. THE ECMWF AND GFS DRAG A WEAK FRONT THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT
OR MON MORNING. BEYOND MON...THE DEEP UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER THE NE
PAC FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO COOL...SHOWERY
CONDITIONS THE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN THE
CASCADES. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE ALONG THE COAST AND THE
INTERIOR NORTH OF KSLE. RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND AND EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MVFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
PERSISTENT IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE COAST RANGE. COLD
FRONT WITH SHIFT TO W WINDS WILL PUSH ONSHORE AROUND 22Z THU...AND
REACH THE INTERIOR BY AROUND 01Z FRI. MTNS WILL BE FREQUENTLY
OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT THE TERMINAL AS OF
09Z...AND EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND 2000 FT WITH
STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AROUND 11-12Z. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
THROUGH THU WITH PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS AND RAIN. FRONT WILL LIKELY
REACH OPS AREA AROUND 00Z FRI...WITH SHIFT TO W WINDS. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT S WINDS TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN TURN W TO NW LATE THU AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 25
KT THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE. SEAS WILL
LIKELY BUILD TO THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE...THOUGH DO NOT EXPECT 10 FT
SEAS TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON SAT...ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
WATERS SUN BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS. MODELS
ALSO DEPICT AN ARRIVING W SWELL LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS WILL
LIKELY PUSH SEAS INTO THE 15 TO 20 FT RANGE THROUGH SUN...WITH
SEAS LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     9 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 170912
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
211 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IN THE NE PACIFIC WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE COLD POOL ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT
SETTLES OVER REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER NEAR
THE CASCADE PASSES THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND OCCURS FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. ANOTHER FRONT
IMPACTS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON SATURDAY. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW EARLY
THIS MORNING CONSISTS OF A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE
WASHINGTON AND OREGON CASCADES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A FAIRLY SHARP DEVELOPING SHORT-WAVE NEAR 46N 134W AS OF 09Z
WITH A MOISTURE FETCH ALONG 40N EXTENDING OUT BEYOND 160W. BLENDED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGE VALID 07Z INDICATED AROUND AN INCH
ALONG THE COAST AND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WITHIN THE MOISTURE FETCH. NWS
KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR HAS STEADILY FILLED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
3-HR PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH 08Z HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND A TENTH OR LESS ALONG THE COAST AND
OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS AND LOWLANDS.

LATEST MODEL RUNS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING FRONTAL TIMING.
RAIN RATES SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
INCREASING INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT AND STRENGTHENING 700 MB
AND 850 MB WLY WIND. GFS AND ECMWF IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE COLD FRONT REACHING THE S WA AND FAR N OREGON COAST 21Z
TO 00Z FRI. THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED A BIT...COMING MORE IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS GFS TIMING. THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE CASCADES AROUND 06Z
FRI. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN THE COLUMBIA
GORGE EAST OF KCZK LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR IN THE EVENING.
FINALLY...THE COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES
OVER WRN WA AND NWRN OREGON THU NIGHT. 850 MB OROGRAPHIC WLY FLOW OF
10-20 KT INTO THE CASCADES WILL ENHANCE PRECIP RATES IN THE 00Z-06Z
FRI TIME FRAME...BUT SNOW LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR THE
PASSES UNTIL AFTER 06Z WHEN SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGINS TO WANE.

SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRI...BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE S WA AND EXTREME N OREGON CASCADES AND
FOOTHILLS FRI MORNING. 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE
FRI AFTERNOON...ABOUT +2C OVER KPDX PER THE GFS AND +3C ON THE ECMWF.
HOWEVER...HIGH SUN ANGLE FOR MID-APRIL WILL WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AND ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO BE AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY
LOOKED TO BE A DRY A COUPLE DAYS AGO. HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN THE FASTEST ALL ALONG THE LATEST GFS HAS SEEMED TO CAUGHT UP
WITH IT. PRECIP EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST BY 18Z SAT...OR EVEN A
LITTLE SOONER...AND SPREAD INLAND THEREAFTER. BOOSTED POPS
SUBSTANTIALLY SAT AFTERNOON AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIP DIMINISHES SAT
NIGHT AS WEAK 500 MB RIDGING TRIES TO FORM OVER THE PAC NW. A
DEEPENING GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH WILL HELP AMPLIFY THE RIDGE A BIT
MORE SUN. SW WA ZONES STILL VULNERABLE TO SOME LIGHT PRECIP
SUNDAY...BUT THE MORE SOUTH ONE TRAVELS THE MORE SUNSHINE THERE
SHOULD BE. THE ECMWF AND GFS DRAG A WEAK FRONT THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT
OR MON MORNING. BEYOND MON...THE DEEP UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER THE NE
PAC FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO COOL...SHOWERY
CONDITIONS THE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN THE
CASCADES. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE ALONG THE COAST AND THE
INTERIOR NORTH OF KSLE. RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND AND EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MVFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
PERSISTENT IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE COAST RANGE. COLD
FRONT WITH SHIFT TO W WINDS WILL PUSH ONSHORE AROUND 22Z THU...AND
REACH THE INTERIOR BY AROUND 01Z FRI. MTNS WILL BE FREQUENTLY
OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT THE TERMINAL AS OF
09Z...AND EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND 2000 FT WITH
STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AROUND 11-12Z. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
THROUGH THU WITH PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS AND RAIN. FRONT WILL LIKELY
REACH OPS AREA AROUND 00Z FRI...WITH SHIFT TO W WINDS. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT S WINDS TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN TURN W TO NW LATE THU AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 25
KT THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE. SEAS WILL
LIKELY BUILD TO THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE...THOUGH DO NOT EXPECT 10 FT
SEAS TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON SAT...ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
WATERS SUN BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS. MODELS
ALSO DEPICT AN ARRIVING W SWELL LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS WILL
LIKELY PUSH SEAS INTO THE 15 TO 20 FT RANGE THROUGH SUN...WITH
SEAS LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     9 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KPQR 170912
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
211 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IN THE NE PACIFIC WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE COLD POOL ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT
SETTLES OVER REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER NEAR
THE CASCADE PASSES THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND OCCURS FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. ANOTHER FRONT
IMPACTS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON SATURDAY. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW EARLY
THIS MORNING CONSISTS OF A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE
WASHINGTON AND OREGON CASCADES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A FAIRLY SHARP DEVELOPING SHORT-WAVE NEAR 46N 134W AS OF 09Z
WITH A MOISTURE FETCH ALONG 40N EXTENDING OUT BEYOND 160W. BLENDED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGE VALID 07Z INDICATED AROUND AN INCH
ALONG THE COAST AND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WITHIN THE MOISTURE FETCH. NWS
KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR HAS STEADILY FILLED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
3-HR PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH 08Z HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND A TENTH OR LESS ALONG THE COAST AND
OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS AND LOWLANDS.

LATEST MODEL RUNS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING FRONTAL TIMING.
RAIN RATES SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
INCREASING INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT AND STRENGTHENING 700 MB
AND 850 MB WLY WIND. GFS AND ECMWF IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE COLD FRONT REACHING THE S WA AND FAR N OREGON COAST 21Z
TO 00Z FRI. THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED A BIT...COMING MORE IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS GFS TIMING. THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE CASCADES AROUND 06Z
FRI. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN THE COLUMBIA
GORGE EAST OF KCZK LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR IN THE EVENING.
FINALLY...THE COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES
OVER WRN WA AND NWRN OREGON THU NIGHT. 850 MB OROGRAPHIC WLY FLOW OF
10-20 KT INTO THE CASCADES WILL ENHANCE PRECIP RATES IN THE 00Z-06Z
FRI TIME FRAME...BUT SNOW LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR THE
PASSES UNTIL AFTER 06Z WHEN SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGINS TO WANE.

SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRI...BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE S WA AND EXTREME N OREGON CASCADES AND
FOOTHILLS FRI MORNING. 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE
FRI AFTERNOON...ABOUT +2C OVER KPDX PER THE GFS AND +3C ON THE ECMWF.
HOWEVER...HIGH SUN ANGLE FOR MID-APRIL WILL WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AND ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO BE AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY
LOOKED TO BE A DRY A COUPLE DAYS AGO. HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN THE FASTEST ALL ALONG THE LATEST GFS HAS SEEMED TO CAUGHT UP
WITH IT. PRECIP EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST BY 18Z SAT...OR EVEN A
LITTLE SOONER...AND SPREAD INLAND THEREAFTER. BOOSTED POPS
SUBSTANTIALLY SAT AFTERNOON AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIP DIMINISHES SAT
NIGHT AS WEAK 500 MB RIDGING TRIES TO FORM OVER THE PAC NW. A
DEEPENING GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH WILL HELP AMPLIFY THE RIDGE A BIT
MORE SUN. SW WA ZONES STILL VULNERABLE TO SOME LIGHT PRECIP
SUNDAY...BUT THE MORE SOUTH ONE TRAVELS THE MORE SUNSHINE THERE
SHOULD BE. THE ECMWF AND GFS DRAG A WEAK FRONT THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT
OR MON MORNING. BEYOND MON...THE DEEP UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER THE NE
PAC FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO COOL...SHOWERY
CONDITIONS THE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN THE
CASCADES. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE ALONG THE COAST AND THE
INTERIOR NORTH OF KSLE. RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND AND EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MVFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
PERSISTENT IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE COAST RANGE. COLD
FRONT WITH SHIFT TO W WINDS WILL PUSH ONSHORE AROUND 22Z THU...AND
REACH THE INTERIOR BY AROUND 01Z FRI. MTNS WILL BE FREQUENTLY
OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT THE TERMINAL AS OF
09Z...AND EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND 2000 FT WITH
STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AROUND 11-12Z. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
THROUGH THU WITH PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS AND RAIN. FRONT WILL LIKELY
REACH OPS AREA AROUND 00Z FRI...WITH SHIFT TO W WINDS. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT S WINDS TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN TURN W TO NW LATE THU AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 25
KT THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE. SEAS WILL
LIKELY BUILD TO THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE...THOUGH DO NOT EXPECT 10 FT
SEAS TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON SAT...ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
WATERS SUN BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS. MODELS
ALSO DEPICT AN ARRIVING W SWELL LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS WILL
LIKELY PUSH SEAS INTO THE 15 TO 20 FT RANGE THROUGH SUN...WITH
SEAS LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     9 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KOTX 170554
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1053 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak wave will continue to bring more showers to the Inland
Northwest this afternoon and evening before tapering off overnight.
A stronger system will result in widespread rain Thursday and
Thursday night, with breezy conditions Friday. At this time the
Easter Weekend looks to be mild and mainly dry. Showers will be
more prevalent for the first part of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated the forecast to decrease the chances of precip along the
northeast Washington and decreased the amount of rain expected in
the Idaho Panhandle for tonight. The system that moved through
the region earlier this evening is now located over Montana and
the next system is currently slowly passing into the Cascades.
This is allowing a small ridge of drier air to build between the
two systems and decreasing the precip potential for most of the
Inland Northwest. High amount of upper level clouds will keep the
minimum temperatures pretty will in line with the previous
forecast. /JDC

&&

AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: A wave pressing along the Cascades is
pushing moisture over and increasing cloud clover for the
TAF sites. This moisture is mainly upper level and not creating
any issues or precip for the sites. Cigs in these areas are
hovering around MVFR and will continue to as another more moist
system moves into the region around 18Z and bringing rain showers
to the Inland Northwest. The region can expect to be under the
influence of rain showers through the period. /JDC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        41  53  40  56  35  63 /  20  90 100  40   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  39  52  41  55  33  63 /  30  90 100  50  10   0
Pullman        41  58  41  53  34  63 /  10  60 100  30   0   0
Lewiston       43  64  45  59  38  69 /  20  40  90  20   0   0
Colville       38  56  41  61  32  68 /  30  90 100  30  10  10
Sandpoint      39  51  41  54  32  62 /  40  90 100  60  20  10
Kellogg        38  52  39  52  34  62 /  40  60 100  60  10   0
Moses Lake     46  61  42  64  36  69 /  10  60  50  10   0  10
Wenatchee      47  60  41  62  41  67 /  20  60  20  10   0  10
Omak           41  59  38  62  34  67 /  20  60  40  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 170416
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
915 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. ADDITIONAL FRONTS WILL ARRIVE LATER SATURDAY AND LATER
SUNDAY...KEEPING THE WEATHER GENERALLY WET. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
BRING SHOWERY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY. THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL GET SNOW BUT THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE
A LITTLE TOO HIGH FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION IN THE PASSES. IT WILL BE
BREEZY THURSDAY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT IN STRONG ONSHORE FLOW.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT EXCEPT IN THE PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE AND THE MTNS. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST
AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY SPREADING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT
MOVES INLAND. ANOTHER FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA LATER SUNDAY...THEN
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY FOR SHOWERY WEATHER. THERE IS A SUGGESTION IN THE MODELS THAT
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SCHNEIDER

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF HIGH SURF CONDITIONS ON THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE WAVE WATCH MODEL INDICATED THAT
SEAS COULD REACH 15 TO 20 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD LIKE TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES BEFORE
LATCHING ONTO THE MODEL SOLUTION. FOR NOW...HAVE CHOSEN TO SLIGHTLY
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AND WENT WITH MARGINAL HIGH SURF CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE EXCEPTION IS THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF
THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE NEAR OSO WHERE A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THIS RIVER AS A
RESULT OF WATER POOLED BEHIND THE DEBRIS DAM THAT PARTIALLY BLOCKS
THE RIVER.

THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH NEAR ARLINGTON IS FORECAST TO
RISE ABOUT A FOOT TONIGHT...THEN RISE AN ADDITIONAL THREE FEET ON
THURSDAY WITH A CREST JUST UNDER 9 FEET THURSDAY EVENING. THE RIVER
LEVEL WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE FALLING FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

AN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE SLIDE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT ONE AND A HALF INCHES.

ADDITIONAL FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE SLIDE AREA LATER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH
WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TRAILING COLD FRONT
REACHING THE COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON MOVING THROUGH THE INTERIOR
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYER NEAR 1500 FEET WITH OVERCAST LAYER
3000-4000 FEET. LOCAL CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET AND VISIBILITIES 2 TO
4 SM IN LIGHT RAIN AND FOG. MOUNTAINS REMAINING OBSCURED.

KSEA...A LITTLE BREAK IN THE RAIN LATE THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS
NEAR 3000 FEET. CEILINGS LOWERING DOWN TO 1000-2000 FEET OVERNIGHT
WITH VISIBILITIES 3-5 SM AT TIMES WITH THE RAIN PICKING UP AGAIN.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS 6 TO 10 KNOTS. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE OR SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THU WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS ADMIRALTY
INLET...EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE STRAIT
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRES ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST AND LOWER PRES
E OF THE CASCADES WILL RESULT IN LIGHT ONSHORE OR WESTERLY FLOW ON
FRI. EXPECT A STRONG COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT TO IMPACT THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT WINDS COULD REACH GALE FORCE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA WITH THIS SYSTEM.
FELTON
&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
     STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...
     ADMIRALTY INLET...EAST ENTRANCE OT THE STRAIT AND NORTHERN
     INLAND WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KPQR 170357
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
852 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAIN WILL PUSH FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT.  MOST OF THE
RAIN WILL FALL FOR THE NORTH COAST AND NORTH INTERIOR. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND OCCURS FRIDAY...BUT THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON SUNDAY THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER SHOWERY
WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY.  SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWING THE NEXT
SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING INTO THE REGION. FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING
RAIN WAS REACHING THE NORTH COAST WITH A FEW SPRINKLES MAKING IT THE
NORTH INTERIOR ZONES.  THE RAIN WILL SPREAD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT. RAIN INTENSITY WILL INCREASE THU MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND THE MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES INTO THE SYSTEM. 700
MB WIND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT FOR MOST OF THE AREA BUT CLOSE TO 40
KT OVER SW WASHINGTON.  A WET DAY BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL. THE FRONT
SHOULD REACH THE COAST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON FOR THE INTERIOR. ALSO A FAIRLY BREEZY DAY CLOSE TO THE
FRONT AT THE COAST AND INLAND BUT NOTHING EXTREME.  POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS DECREASE QUITE RAPIDLY THU NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD.

SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES BY 12Z FRI. MODEST
850 MB OROGRAPHIC FLOW THU NIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25 KT PER THE
GFS...BUT A LITTLE LESS ON THE ECMWF.  KEPT A THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING
FOR THE CASCADES FRI MORNING. WITH THE TROUGH CUTTING THROUGH OUR
NORTHERN TIER...WE RETURN TO A DIRTY RIDGE PATTERN WITH A SURFACE
HIGH IN PLACE ELSEWHERE...AND THEREFORE NOT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION RIGHT
AROUND 6000 FT.

ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO WEAK RIDGING FRI AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE REMNANTS OF
OUR COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH BECOMES A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO
AMPLIFYING FLOW OFFSHORE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LINGER AND LIFT THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE DAY. MODELS SHOW SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA...BUT REGARDLESS SHOULD
STILL SEE FOR SOME MODEST WARMING AND INCREASED SUNSHINE COMPARED TO
THURSDAY. EXPECT FRI HIGH TEMPS TO GET NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS...WHICH IS ABOUT 60...AS THIGH SUN ANGLE. /KMD

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ZONAL FLOW BUT SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES THE DRY BREAK THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH LATER SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF IS STILL THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING PRECIP BACK TO THE
COAST SATURDAY MORNING THEN SPREADING THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS/NAM DRAG THE UPPER TROUGH BY TO OUR NORTH
AND WEAKEN THE FRONT AS IT COMES INLAND BUT STILL BRING SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
THE WEST AND NORTHERN TIER AND HOLD ONTO CHANCE ELSEWHERE UNTIL
TIMING ISSUES GET RESOLVED.

SUNDAY IS STILL LOOKING "MOSTLY" DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS...THOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER ALONG A THERMAL BOUNDARY AS
THE UPPER JET CONTINUES TO POINT THE REGION. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH AND KEEPS ANY LIGHT PRECIP NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. AFTER
THE FLOW AMPLIFIES...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY
THROUGH THE WEST AND BRING PERIODS OF COOLER AND SHOWERY
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. /KMD

&&

.AVIATION...VFR INLAND...BUT MVFR NOW DOMINATING ALONG THE COAST.
RAIN CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST...AND WILL PUSH INLAND
THROUGH 10Z. CIGS INLAND WILL LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT...WITH WORST
CONDITIONS N OF KSLE. AFTER 12Z...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MVFR
THROUGHOUT THE REGION THROUGH 22Z...WITH AREAS OF PERSISTENT IFR
CIGS ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE COAST RANGE. COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ONSHORE NEAR 22Z THU. EXPECT MTNS TO BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF POCKETS OF MVFR
CIGS THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO 2500 FT AFTER 08Z
AS STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPS. LITTLE CHANGE THU...WITH PERSISTENT
MVFR CIGS AND RAIN. FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OPS AREA AFTER 23Z THU
AFTERNOON...WITH TURN TO WESTERLY WINDS.      ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING. WINDS
HAVE EASED A BIT...BUT STILL COULD SEE A LOCAL GUST TO 25 KT N OF
TILLAMOOK. SEAS HOLDING 6 TO 8 FT OVERNIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS COASTAL WATERS THU AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...S WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN THU AM...THEN TURN W TO NW
LATE THU AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. SEAS SHOULD
COME UP A BIT MORE WITH THIS SYSTEM...LIKELY 8 TO 10 FT. ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS LATE THU AM THROUGH THU
 EVENING FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
 FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM THU.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 170357
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
852 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT RAIN WILL PUSH FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT.  MOST OF THE
RAIN WILL FALL FOR THE NORTH COAST AND NORTH INTERIOR. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND OCCURS FRIDAY...BUT THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON SUNDAY THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER SHOWERY
WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY.  SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWING THE NEXT
SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING INTO THE REGION. FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING
RAIN WAS REACHING THE NORTH COAST WITH A FEW SPRINKLES MAKING IT THE
NORTH INTERIOR ZONES.  THE RAIN WILL SPREAD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT. RAIN INTENSITY WILL INCREASE THU MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND THE MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES INTO THE SYSTEM. 700
MB WIND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT FOR MOST OF THE AREA BUT CLOSE TO 40
KT OVER SW WASHINGTON.  A WET DAY BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL. THE FRONT
SHOULD REACH THE COAST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON FOR THE INTERIOR. ALSO A FAIRLY BREEZY DAY CLOSE TO THE
FRONT AT THE COAST AND INLAND BUT NOTHING EXTREME.  POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS DECREASE QUITE RAPIDLY THU NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD.

SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES BY 12Z FRI. MODEST
850 MB OROGRAPHIC FLOW THU NIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25 KT PER THE
GFS...BUT A LITTLE LESS ON THE ECMWF.  KEPT A THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING
FOR THE CASCADES FRI MORNING. WITH THE TROUGH CUTTING THROUGH OUR
NORTHERN TIER...WE RETURN TO A DIRTY RIDGE PATTERN WITH A SURFACE
HIGH IN PLACE ELSEWHERE...AND THEREFORE NOT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION RIGHT
AROUND 6000 FT.

ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO WEAK RIDGING FRI AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE REMNANTS OF
OUR COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH BECOMES A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO
AMPLIFYING FLOW OFFSHORE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LINGER AND LIFT THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE DAY. MODELS SHOW SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA...BUT REGARDLESS SHOULD
STILL SEE FOR SOME MODEST WARMING AND INCREASED SUNSHINE COMPARED TO
THURSDAY. EXPECT FRI HIGH TEMPS TO GET NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS...WHICH IS ABOUT 60...AS THIGH SUN ANGLE. /KMD

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ZONAL FLOW BUT SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES THE DRY BREAK THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH LATER SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF IS STILL THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING PRECIP BACK TO THE
COAST SATURDAY MORNING THEN SPREADING THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS/NAM DRAG THE UPPER TROUGH BY TO OUR NORTH
AND WEAKEN THE FRONT AS IT COMES INLAND BUT STILL BRING SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
THE WEST AND NORTHERN TIER AND HOLD ONTO CHANCE ELSEWHERE UNTIL
TIMING ISSUES GET RESOLVED.

SUNDAY IS STILL LOOKING "MOSTLY" DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS...THOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER ALONG A THERMAL BOUNDARY AS
THE UPPER JET CONTINUES TO POINT THE REGION. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH AND KEEPS ANY LIGHT PRECIP NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. AFTER
THE FLOW AMPLIFIES...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY
THROUGH THE WEST AND BRING PERIODS OF COOLER AND SHOWERY
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. /KMD

&&

.AVIATION...VFR INLAND...BUT MVFR NOW DOMINATING ALONG THE COAST.
RAIN CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST...AND WILL PUSH INLAND
THROUGH 10Z. CIGS INLAND WILL LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT...WITH WORST
CONDITIONS N OF KSLE. AFTER 12Z...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MVFR
THROUGHOUT THE REGION THROUGH 22Z...WITH AREAS OF PERSISTENT IFR
CIGS ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE COAST RANGE. COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ONSHORE NEAR 22Z THU. EXPECT MTNS TO BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF POCKETS OF MVFR
CIGS THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO 2500 FT AFTER 08Z
AS STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPS. LITTLE CHANGE THU...WITH PERSISTENT
MVFR CIGS AND RAIN. FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OPS AREA AFTER 23Z THU
AFTERNOON...WITH TURN TO WESTERLY WINDS.      ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING. WINDS
HAVE EASED A BIT...BUT STILL COULD SEE A LOCAL GUST TO 25 KT N OF
TILLAMOOK. SEAS HOLDING 6 TO 8 FT OVERNIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS COASTAL WATERS THU AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...S WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN THU AM...THEN TURN W TO NW
LATE THU AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. SEAS SHOULD
COME UP A BIT MORE WITH THIS SYSTEM...LIKELY 8 TO 10 FT. ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS LATE THU AM THROUGH THU
 EVENING FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
 FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM THU.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KOTX 170307
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
807 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak wave will continue to bring more showers to the Inland
Northwest this afternoon and evening before tapering off overnight.
A stronger system will result in widespread rain Thursday and
Thursday night, with breezy conditions Friday. At this time the
Easter Weekend looks to be mild and mainly dry. Showers will be
more prevalent for the first part of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated the forecast to decrease the chances of precip along the
northeast Washington and decreased the amount of rain expected in
the Idaho Panhandle for tonight. The system that moved through
the region earlier this evening is now located over Montana and
the next system is currently slowly passing into the Cascades.
This is allowing a small ridge of drier air to build between the
two systems and decreasing the precip potential for most of the
Inland Northwest. High amount of upper level clouds will keep the
minimum temperatures pretty will in line with the previous
forecast. /JDC

&&

AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: The weak weather system is continuing to
move through the eastern Washington and Idaho Panhandle, bringing
low cloud decks and rain showers to most of the locations in these
areas. Cigs in these areas are hovering around MVFR and will
continue to as another more moist system moves into the region
around 18Z and bringing rain showers to the Inland Northwest. A
break in the rainshowers is expected for the late evening, early
morning hours as dry low level air makes a brief appearance
between the two systems. /JDC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        41  53  40  56  35  63 /  20  90 100  40   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  39  52  41  55  33  63 /  30  90 100  50  10   0
Pullman        41  58  41  53  34  63 /  10  60 100  30   0   0
Lewiston       43  64  45  59  38  69 /  20  40  90  20   0   0
Colville       38  56  41  61  32  68 /  30  90 100  30  10  10
Sandpoint      39  51  41  54  32  62 /  40  90 100  60  20  10
Kellogg        38  52  39  52  34  62 /  40  60 100  60  10   0
Moses Lake     46  61  42  64  36  69 /  10  60  50  10   0  10
Wenatchee      47  60  41  62  41  67 /  20  60  20  10   0  10
Omak           41  59  38  62  34  67 /  20  60  40  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 170215
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
714 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak wave will continue to bring more showers to the Inland
Northwest this afternoon and evening before tapering off overnight.
A stronger system will result in widespread rain Thursday and
Thursday night, with breezy conditions Friday. At this time the
Easter Weekend looks to be mild and mainly dry. Showers will be
more prevalent for the first part of next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight: The stratiform showers from earlier today has now
transitioned to more of a convective regime as we move into the
afternoon hours. This has resulted in more spotty showers versus
the widespread nature we saw this morning. Some showers have
produced brief periods of light to moderate rain, but totals have
still remained light. As we continue into the afternoon and early
evening hours I expect the showers to move to the NE being confined
to mainly the NE mountains of WA and the Panhandle by this
evening. With convective parameters weak, the showers will come to
an end rather quickly this evening as sun sets and the atmosphere
stabilizes. This evening into tonight will bring a brief break in
the action as we have some weak ridging in place. Although clouds
will remain firmly in place, the chances for precip diminishes.

Tonight features the mentioned break period as we await the
arrival of next system set to move in tomorrow. The precip looks
to move from west to east reaching the Cascades early Thursday
morning. This system looks to be much moister than the one today
leading to a much better chance of widespread precipitation
Thursday. Temperatures tonight will remain milder than last night
as cloud cover will limit radiative cooling. /Fliehman

Thursday to Friday night: Precipitation comes to the Inland NW as
a strong frontal wave migrates across the region through Thursday
night. This is followed by more showery and breezy conditions
Friday.

First Thursday morning a warm front is draped across the region,
while the cold front and it supporting upper wave approach the
coast. Weak to moderate isentropic ascent in the 290-300K layer is
directed across the eastern third of WA and north ID. Initially
condensation pressure deficits show the best saturation and
highest precipitation chances lay over northern mountains and
Cascades. However between 8 AM-12 PM the atmosphere begins to
saturate further south. The system taps a subtropical moisture
plume, with PWATs rising to 0.60-0.80 inches (or about 180-240% of
normal). This will lead to a gradual expansion of in precipitation
across the Basin. Initially precipitation looks light, save for
near the Cascade crest and perhaps the northern mountains. The LC-
Valley toward the Camas Prairie and possibly lower Shoshone county
may remain dry.

Then between later Thursday afternoon and Friday morning the cold
front moves from the Cascades to the western Montana, with the
supporting upper wave on its heels. This is when the highest
precipitation chances and amounts develop, with deep-layer lift
coming to the 850mb-500mb layer. There are lingering model
differences as to how quick the front and upper wave pass. This
has implications on how quickly precipitation decreases from the
west, i.e. toward late evening or not until the later overnight
hours going into Friday morning. Either way much of the region
stands a pretty good chance of seeing wetting rains (over a tenth
of an inch). Some areas may pick up between 0.30 to 0.75 inches of
rain, especially northeast WA and the ID Panhandle and the
Cascades.

There is a thunder potential with this system too. In the late
afternoon and evening hours models shows some uncapped CAPE across
the upper Columbia Basin through northeast WA mountains, with some
negative dtheta/dz lapse rates. Overnight into Friday this shifts
to northeast WA and north ID overnight. Confidence is low with
regard to the available potential instability. However a pocket of
-20 to -25C 500mb come across the region and the system has
impressive lift. So I added a slight chance of thunderstorms
across these areas.

Temperatures are expected to be held back by the clouds and
precipitation Thursday, with highs expected to be below normal.
Temperatures in some areas may struggle to get to the 50. Winds
will also increase through by Thursday afternoon and remain in the
breezy category through the night, thanks to the increased
gradient and mixing with the incoming system.

From Friday to Friday night a trough trailing the exiting system
sags across the northern Rockies. With low-grade CAPE and
marginally negative LI values across northeast WA and north ID in
the afternoon and very early evening, in conjunction with a core
of colder 500 mb temperatures around -28 to -30C), this will mean
the threat of isolated to scattered showers. The modest mixing and
still tight gradient behind the exiting low will also mean breezy
to locally windy conditions. Depending on how much rain falls
prior to this period, these winds could lead to some blowing dust.
The best threat will be out toward the deeper Basin, where lighter
rainfall amounts are more likely with the Thursday system.
Otherwise look for a mix of sun and clouds, especially in the
afternoon. The overall shower threat and breezy conditions will
abate rapidly after sunset. I did add a few areas of patchy fog
overnight into early Friday morning across the sheltered mountain
valleys across northeast WA and north ID. The recent precipitation
moistening the BL and low level high pressure stretching across
this region will bring this threat. Temperatures will remain
slightly below normal. /J. Cote`

Saturday through Wednesday...A ridge of high pressure will bring
dry conditions to the region on Saturday then a shortwave trough
will move across the northern tier with a chance of showers north
of Interstate 90 early on Sunday. For the start of the work week
the region will be in moist southwest flow aloft that will keep
unsettled weather in the forecast through Wednesday. Southerly
flow will allow temperatures to remain on the warm side of climo
through Monday, then an upper low will move over the region with
cooler and showery weather expected through midweek. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: The weak weather system is continuing to move through
the eastern Washington and Idaho Panhandle, bringing low cloud
decks and rain showers to most of the locations in these areas.
Cigs in these areas are hovering around MVFR and will continue to
as another more moist system moves into the region around 18Z and
bringing rain showers to the Inland Northwest. A break in the
rainshowers is expected for the late evening, early morning hours
as dry low level air makes a brief appearance between the two
systems. /JDC



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        41  53  40  56  35  63 /  20  90 100  40   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  39  52  41  55  33  63 /  40  90 100  50  10   0
Pullman        41  58  41  53  34  63 /  20  60 100  30   0   0
Lewiston       43  64  45  59  38  69 /  20  40  90  20   0   0
Colville       38  56  41  61  32  68 /  30  90 100  30  10  10
Sandpoint      39  51  41  54  32  62 /  30  90 100  60  20  10
Kellogg        38  52  39  52  34  62 /  40  60 100  60  10   0
Moses Lake     46  61  42  64  36  69 /  10  60  50  10   0  10
Wenatchee      47  60  41  62  41  67 /  20  60  20  10   0  10
Omak           41  59  38  62  34  67 /  20  60  40  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 162354
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
454 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE INLAND
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT.
A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME THE
EASTER WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE MILD AND MAINLY DRY. SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE PREVALENT FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.



&&

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT: THE STRATIFORM SHOWERS FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS NOW
TRANSITIONED TO MORE OF A CONVECTIVE REGIME AS WE MOVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MORE SPOTTY SHOWERS VERSUS
THE WIDESPREAD NATURE WE SAW THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS HAVE
PRODUCED BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN, BUT TOTALS HAVE
STILL REMAINED LIGHT. AS WE CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS I EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO MOVE TO THE NE BEING CONFINED
TO MAINLY THE NE MOUNTAINS OF WA AND THE PANHANDLE BY THIS
EVENING. WITH CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WEAK, THE SHOWERS WILL COME TO
AN END RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS SUN SETS AND THE ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES. THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE ACTION AS WE HAVE SOME WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE, THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP DIMINISHES.

TONIGHT FEATURES THE MENTIONED BREAK PERIOD AS WE AWAIT THE
ARRIVAL OF NEXT SYSTEM SET TO MOVE IN TOMORROW. THE PRECIP LOOKS
TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST REACHING THE CASCADES EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MUCH MOISTER THAN THE ONE TODAY
LEADING TO A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT
AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RADIATIVE COOLING. /FLIEHMAN

THURSDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: PRECIPITATION COMES TO THE INLAND NW AS
A STRONG FRONTAL WAVE MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY MORE SHOWERY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY.

FIRST THURSDAY MORNING A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION,
WHILE THE COLD FRONT AND IT SUPPORTING UPPER WAVE APPROACH THE
COAST. WEAK TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE 290-300K LAYER IS
DIRECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF WA AND NORTH ID. INITIALLY
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SHOW THE BEST SATURATION AND
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES LAY OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
CASCADES. HOWEVER BETWEEN 8 AM-12 PM THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO
SATURATE FURTHER SOUTH. THE SYSTEM TAPS A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME, WITH PWATS RISING TO 0.60-0.80 INCHES (OR ABOUT 180-240% OF
NORMAL). THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL EXPANSION OF IN PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE BASIN. INITIALLY PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIGHT, SAVE FOR
NEAR THE CASCADE CREST AND PERHAPS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE LC-
VALLEY TOWARD THE CAMAS PRAIRIE AND POSSIBLY LOWER SHOSHONE COUNTY
MAY REMAIN DRY.

THEN BETWEEN LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY MORNING THE COLD
FRONT MOVES FROM THE CASCADES TO THE WESTERN MONTANA, WITH THE
SUPPORTING UPPER WAVE ON ITS HEELS. THIS IS WHEN THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AMOUNTS DEVELOP, WITH DEEP-LAYER LIFT
COMING TO THE 850MB-500MB LAYER. THERE ARE LINGERING MODEL
DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW QUICK THE FRONT AND UPPER WAVE PASS. THIS
HAS IMPLICATIONS ON HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION DECREASES FROM THE
WEST, I.E. TOWARD LATE EVENING OR NOT UNTIL THE LATER OVERNIGHT
HOURS GOING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY MUCH OF THE REGION
STANDS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING WETTING RAINS (OVER A TENTH
OF AN INCH). SOME AREAS MAY PICK UP BETWEEN 0.30 TO 0.75 INCHES OF
RAIN, ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WA AND THE ID PANHANDLE AND THE
CASCADES.

THERE IS A THUNDER POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM TOO. IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MODELS SHOWS SOME UNCAPPED CAPE ACROSS
THE UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN THROUGH NORTHEAST WA MOUNTAINS, WITH SOME
NEGATIVE DTHETA/DZ LAPSE RATES. OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY THIS SHIFTS
TO NORTHEAST WA AND NORTH ID OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
REGARD TO THE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER A POCKET OF
-20 TO -25C 500MB COME ACROSS THE REGION AND THE SYSTEM HAS
IMPRESSIVE LIFT. SO I ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THESE AREAS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HELD BACK BY THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES IN SOME AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET TO THE 50. WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN IN THE
BREEZY CATEGORY THROUGH THE NIGHT, THANKS TO THE INCREASED
GRADIENT AND MIXING WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM.

FROM FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT A TROUGH TRAILING THE EXITING SYSTEM
SAGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WITH LOW-GRADE CAPE AND
MARGINALLY NEGATIVE LI VALUES ACROSS NORTHEAST WA AND NORTH ID IN
THE AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY EVENING, IN CONJUNCTION WITH A CORE
OF COLDER 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -28 TO -30C), THIS WILL MEAN
THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE MODEST MIXING AND
STILL TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND THE EXITING LOW WILL ALSO MEAN BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS
PRIOR TO THIS PERIOD, THESE WINDS COULD LEAD TO SOME BLOWING DUST.
THE BEST THREAT WILL BE OUT TOWARD THE DEEPER BASIN, WHERE LIGHTER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE MORE LIKELY WITH THE THURSDAY SYSTEM.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL SHOWER THREAT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
ABATE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. I DID ADD A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS ACROSS NORTHEAST WA AND NORTH ID. THE RECENT PRECIPITATION
MOISTENING THE BL AND LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS
THIS REGION WILL BRING THIS THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. /J. COTE`

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY THEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 EARLY ON SUNDAY. FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK
THE REGION WILL BE IN MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF CLIMO
THROUGH MONDAY, THEN AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION WITH
COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. /KELCH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: THE WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO MOVE
THROUGH THE EASTERN WASHINGTON AND IDAHO PANHANDLE BRINGING LOW
CLOUD DECKS AND RAINSHOWERS TO MOST LOCATIONS IN THESE AREAS. RIGS IN
THESE AREAS ARE HOVERING AROUND MVFR AND WILL CONTINUE TO AS ANOTHER
MORE MOIST SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION AROUND 18Z AND BRINGING
RAINSHOWERS TO THE INLAND NORTHWEST. A BREAK IN THE RAINSHOWERS IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LATE EVENING, EARLY MORNING HOURS AS DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR MAKES A BRIEF APPEARANCE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS.
/JDC



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        41  53  40  56  35  63 /  20  90 100  40   0   0
COEUR D`ALENE  39  52  41  55  33  63 /  40  90 100  50  10   0
PULLMAN        41  58  41  53  34  63 /  20  60 100  30   0   0
LEWISTON       43  64  45  59  38  69 /  20  40  90  20   0   0
COLVILLE       38  56  41  61  32  68 /  30  90 100  30  10  10
SANDPOINT      39  51  41  54  32  62 /  30  90 100  60  20  10
KELLOGG        38  52  39  52  34  62 /  40  60 100  60  10   0
MOSES LAKE     46  61  42  64  36  69 /  10  60  50  10   0  10
WENATCHEE      47  60  41  62  41  67 /  20  60  20  10   0  10
OMAK           41  59  38  62  34  67 /  20  60  40  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 162201
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. ADDITIONAL FRONTS WILL ARRIVE LATER SATURDAY AND LATER
SUNDAY...KEEPING THE WEATHER GENERALLY WET. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
BRING SHOWERY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT...THEN A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN TO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SHOWERS LATE
THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL GET SEVERAL INCHES
OF NEW SNOW BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH FOR MUCH SNOW
IN THE PASSES OR  ROADS UP TO THE SKI AREAS.

IT WILL BE BREEZY MOST AREAS THURSDAY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT IN
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW. SHOWERS WILL TAPER THURSDAY NIGHT...AND BECOME
MOSTLY CONFINED TO A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE AND OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE
A DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A SECOND FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY...WITH RAIN REACHING THE COAST
AROUND MIDDAY...THEN SPREADING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT
MOVES INLAND. ANOTHER FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA LATER SUNDAY...THEN
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY FOR SHOWERY WEATHER. THERE IS A SUGGESTION IN THE MODELS THAT
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SCHNEIDER

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF HIGH SURF CONDITIONS ON THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE WAVE WATCH MODEL INDICATED THAT
SEAS COULD REACH 15 TO 20 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD LIKE TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES BEFORE
LATCHING ONTO THE MODEL SOLUTION. FOR NOW...HAVE CHOSEN TO SLIGHTLY
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AND WENT WITH MARGINAL HIGH SURF CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE EXCEPTION IS THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF
THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE NEAR OSO WHERE A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THIS RIVER AS A
RESULT OF WATER POOLED BEHIND THE DEBRIS DAM THAT PARTIALLY BLOCKS
THE RIVER.

THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH NEAR ARLINGTON IS FORECAST TO
RISE ABOUT A FOOT TONIGHT...THEN RISE AN ADDITIONAL THREE FEET ON
THURSDAY WITH A CREST JUST UNDER 9 FEET THURSDAY EVENING. THE RIVER
LEVEL WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE FALLING FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

AN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE SLIDE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT ONE AND A HALF INCHES.

ADDITIONAL FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE SLIDE AREA LATER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ESPECIALLY WET OR
HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT BUT THEY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WET.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST THU
MORNING...ALLOWING AN UPPER TROF OFFSHORE TO APPROACH THE WA COAST.
STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN THU AFTERNOON. CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE OR SLY FLOW. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
THU AFTERNOON.

CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 1-3K FT RANGE THRU
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH EXPECT AREAS OF CIGS BLO 1K FT TO DEVELOP AFTER
0600 UTC. THERE WILL ALSO BE AREAS OF VSBYS IN THE 2-4SM RANGE DUE
TO RAIN AND/OR FOG. THE MTNS WILL REMAIN OBSCD.

KSEA...EXPECT CIGS TO BOUNCE BACK AND FORTH  BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR
CATEGORY THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER 0600 UTC...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MAINLY IN THE 1-2K FT RANGE. ALSO...ANTICIPATE THE VSBY TO LOWER
TO 5 OR 6SM DUE TO -RA BR AFTER 0600 UTC. SLY WINDS NEAR 10 KT WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE OR SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THU.
HIGH PRES ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST AND LOWER PRES E OF THE
CASCADES WILL RESULT IN LIGHT ONSHORE OR WESTERLY FLOW ON FRI.
EXPECT A STRONG COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT TO IMPACT THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT WINDS COULD REACH GALE FORCE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
      STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS...PUGET
      SOUND/HOOD CANAL...ADMIRALTY INLET...AND NORTHERN INLAND
      WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KPQR 162154
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
240 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND OCCURS FRIDAY...BUT THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON SUNDAY THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER SHOWERY
WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BRINGING WITH IT VERY LIGHT RAIN WITH A
TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED...JUST ENOUGH TO DAMPEN
THE PAVEMENT. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVING INTO THE
RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGE THAT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTH BUT
MAINLY THE COAST AND COAST RANGE THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
EVENING WHILE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE LOWER LEVEL WARM
FRONT NORTH AND KEEPS AREAS FROM SALEM SOUTHWARD GENERALLY DRY.

THE MOST ORGANIZED WARM PROCESS RAIN OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 1"PW
EMBEDDED IN THE RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW AGAIN WITH THE FOCUS IN THE NW
CORNER...BUT THE NORTHERN HALF STILL SEEING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN.
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MAKE BETTER PROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.
PW VALUES ARE ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
APRIL...SO A BIT OF A WET DAY TOMORROW BUT NOTHING TOO
EXTREME...WITH A BURST OF MORE MODERATE TO HEAVIER RAIN WITH THE
FRONT LATER AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH COUPLED FORCING FROM THE
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRIEFLY STEEPEN SOME. SNOW
LEVELS DO NOT GET DOWN TO THE PASSES UNTIL THE TAIL END OF THE COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.

UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT...WITH
SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES BY 12Z FRI. MODEST
850 MB OROGRAPHIC FLOW THU NIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25 KT PER THE
GFS...BUT A LITTLE LESS ON THE ECMWF.  KEPT A THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING
FOR THE CASCADES FRI MORNING. WITH THE TROUGH CUTTING THROUGH OUR
NORTHERN TIER...WE RETURN TO A DIRTY RIDGE PATTERN WITH A SURFACE
HIGH IN PLACE ELSEWHERE...AND THEREFORE NOT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION RIGHT
AROUND 6000 FT.

ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO WEAK RIDGING FRI AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE REMNANTS OF
OUR COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH BECOMES A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO
AMPLIFYING FLOW OFFSHORE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LINGER AND LIFT THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE DAY. MODELS SHOW SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA...BUT REGARDLESS SHOULD
STILL SEE FOR SOME MODEST WARMING AND INCREASED SUNSHINE COMPARED TO
THURSDAY. EXPECT FRI HIGH TEMPS TO GET NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS...WHICH IS ABOUT 60...AS THIGH SUN ANGLE. /KMD

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ZONAL FLOW BUT SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES THE DRY BREAK THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH LATER SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF IS STILL THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING PRECIP BACK TO THE
COAST SATURDAY MORNING THEN SPREADING THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS/NAM DRAG THE UPPER TROUGH BY TO OUR NORTH
AND WEAKEN THE FRONT AS IT COMES INLAND BUT STILL BRING SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
THE WEST AND NORTHERN TIER AND HOLD ONTO CHANCE ELSEWHERE UNTIL
TIMING ISSUES GET RESOLVED.

SUNDAY IS STILL LOOKING "MOSTLY" DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS...THOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER ALONG A THERMAL BOUNDARY AS
THE UPPER JET CONTINUES TO POINT THE REGION. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH AND KEEPS ANY LIGHT PRECIP NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. AFTER
THE FLOW AMPLIFIES...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY
THROUGH THE WEST AND BRING PERIODS OF COOLER AND SHOWERY
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. /KMD


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH POCKETS OF
MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS. CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT INTO THU
AM COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LIKELY TO REMAIN MVFR ALL DAY THU WITH
MTNS FREQUENTLY OBSCURED. CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF
PERSISTENT IFR CIGS IN COAST RANGE AND COASTAL AREAS THU.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF POCKETS OF MVFR
CIGS THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO 2500 FT LATER
TONIGHT INTO THU AM AS COLD FRONT PUSHES RAIN INTO OPS AREA.
&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING. JUST
ENOUGH PRES GRADIENT TO KEEP S WINDS GUSTY UP TO 25 KT N OF
TILLAMOOK THIS EVENING. SEAS HOLDING 6 TO 8 FT OVERNIGHT.

COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES ACROSS REGION THU AND THU EVENING. WILL
SEE S WINDS PICK UP AGAIN THU AM...THEN TURN W TO NW THU EVENING
AS COLD FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. SEAS SHOULD COME UP A BIT MORE WITH
THIS SYSTEM...LIKELY 8 TO 10 FT THU THROUGH FRI.      WILDEROCK
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS THIS EVENING FOR N COASTAL
 WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS THU AND THU EVENING ON ALL COASTAL
     WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS FROM 5
     AM TO 9 AM THU.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 162154
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
240 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND OCCURS FRIDAY...BUT THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON SUNDAY THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER SHOWERY
WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BRINGING WITH IT VERY LIGHT RAIN WITH A
TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED...JUST ENOUGH TO DAMPEN
THE PAVEMENT. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVING INTO THE
RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGE THAT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTH BUT
MAINLY THE COAST AND COAST RANGE THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
EVENING WHILE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE LOWER LEVEL WARM
FRONT NORTH AND KEEPS AREAS FROM SALEM SOUTHWARD GENERALLY DRY.

THE MOST ORGANIZED WARM PROCESS RAIN OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 1"PW
EMBEDDED IN THE RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW AGAIN WITH THE FOCUS IN THE NW
CORNER...BUT THE NORTHERN HALF STILL SEEING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN.
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MAKE BETTER PROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.
PW VALUES ARE ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
APRIL...SO A BIT OF A WET DAY TOMORROW BUT NOTHING TOO
EXTREME...WITH A BURST OF MORE MODERATE TO HEAVIER RAIN WITH THE
FRONT LATER AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH COUPLED FORCING FROM THE
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRIEFLY STEEPEN SOME. SNOW
LEVELS DO NOT GET DOWN TO THE PASSES UNTIL THE TAIL END OF THE COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.

UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT...WITH
SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES BY 12Z FRI. MODEST
850 MB OROGRAPHIC FLOW THU NIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25 KT PER THE
GFS...BUT A LITTLE LESS ON THE ECMWF.  KEPT A THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING
FOR THE CASCADES FRI MORNING. WITH THE TROUGH CUTTING THROUGH OUR
NORTHERN TIER...WE RETURN TO A DIRTY RIDGE PATTERN WITH A SURFACE
HIGH IN PLACE ELSEWHERE...AND THEREFORE NOT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION RIGHT
AROUND 6000 FT.

ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO WEAK RIDGING FRI AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE REMNANTS OF
OUR COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH BECOMES A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO
AMPLIFYING FLOW OFFSHORE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LINGER AND LIFT THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE DAY. MODELS SHOW SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA...BUT REGARDLESS SHOULD
STILL SEE FOR SOME MODEST WARMING AND INCREASED SUNSHINE COMPARED TO
THURSDAY. EXPECT FRI HIGH TEMPS TO GET NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS...WHICH IS ABOUT 60...AS THIGH SUN ANGLE. /KMD

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ZONAL FLOW BUT SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES THE DRY BREAK THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH LATER SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF IS STILL THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING PRECIP BACK TO THE
COAST SATURDAY MORNING THEN SPREADING THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS/NAM DRAG THE UPPER TROUGH BY TO OUR NORTH
AND WEAKEN THE FRONT AS IT COMES INLAND BUT STILL BRING SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
THE WEST AND NORTHERN TIER AND HOLD ONTO CHANCE ELSEWHERE UNTIL
TIMING ISSUES GET RESOLVED.

SUNDAY IS STILL LOOKING "MOSTLY" DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS...THOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER ALONG A THERMAL BOUNDARY AS
THE UPPER JET CONTINUES TO POINT THE REGION. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH AND KEEPS ANY LIGHT PRECIP NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. AFTER
THE FLOW AMPLIFIES...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY
THROUGH THE WEST AND BRING PERIODS OF COOLER AND SHOWERY
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. /KMD


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH POCKETS OF
MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS. CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT INTO THU
AM COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LIKELY TO REMAIN MVFR ALL DAY THU WITH
MTNS FREQUENTLY OBSCURED. CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF
PERSISTENT IFR CIGS IN COAST RANGE AND COASTAL AREAS THU.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF POCKETS OF MVFR
CIGS THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO 2500 FT LATER
TONIGHT INTO THU AM AS COLD FRONT PUSHES RAIN INTO OPS AREA.
&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING. JUST
ENOUGH PRES GRADIENT TO KEEP S WINDS GUSTY UP TO 25 KT N OF
TILLAMOOK THIS EVENING. SEAS HOLDING 6 TO 8 FT OVERNIGHT.

COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES ACROSS REGION THU AND THU EVENING. WILL
SEE S WINDS PICK UP AGAIN THU AM...THEN TURN W TO NW THU EVENING
AS COLD FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. SEAS SHOULD COME UP A BIT MORE WITH
THIS SYSTEM...LIKELY 8 TO 10 FT THU THROUGH FRI.      WILDEROCK
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS THIS EVENING FOR N COASTAL
 WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS THU AND THU EVENING ON ALL COASTAL
     WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS FROM 5
     AM TO 9 AM THU.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KOTX 162125
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
225 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak wave will continue to bring more showers to the Inland
Northwest this afternoon and evening before tapering off overnight.
A stronger system will result in widespread rain Thursday and
Thursday night, with breezy conditions Friday. At this time the
Easter Weekend looks to be mild and mainly dry. Showers will be
more prevalent for the first part of next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight: The stratiform showers from earlier today has now
transitioned to more of a convective regime as we move into the
afternoon hours. This has resulted in more spotty showers versus
the widespread nature we saw this morning. Some showers have
produced brief periods of light to moderate rain, but totals have
still remained light. As we continue into the afternoon and early
evening hours I expect the showers to move to the NE being confined
to mainly the NE mountains of WA and the Panhandle by this
evening. With convective parameters weak, the showers will come to
an end rather quickly this evening as sun sets and the atmosphere
stabilizes. This evening into tonight will bring a brief break in
the action as we have some weak ridging in place. Although clouds
will remain firmly in place, the chances for precip diminishes.

Tonight features the mentioned break period as we await the
arrival of next system set to move in tomorrow. The precip looks
to move from west to east reaching the Cascades early Thursday
morning. This system looks to be much moister than the one today
leading to a much better chance of widespread precipitation
Thursday. Temperatures tonight will remain milder than last night
as cloud cover will limit radiative cooling. /Fliehman

Thursday to Friday night: Precipitation comes to the Inland NW as
a strong frontal wave migrates across the region through Thursday
night. This is followed by more showery and breezy conditions
Friday.

First Thursday morning a warm front is draped across the region,
while the cold front and it supporting upper wave approach the
coast. Weak to moderate isentropic ascent in the 290-300K layer is
directed across the eastern third of WA and north ID. Initially
condensation pressure deficits show the best saturation and
highest precipitation chances lay over northern mountains and
Cascades. However between 8 AM-12 PM the atmosphere begins to
saturate further south. The system taps a subtropical moisture
plume, with PWATs rising to 0.60-0.80 inches (or about 180-240% of
normal). This will lead to a gradual expansion of in precipitation
across the Basin. Initially precipitation looks light, save for
near the Cascade crest and perhaps the northern mountains. The LC-
Valley toward the Camas Prairie and possibly lower Shoshone county
may remain dry.

Then between later Thursday afternoon and Friday morning the cold
front moves from the Cascades to the western Montana, with the
supporting upper wave on its heels. This is when the highest
precipitation chances and amounts develop, with deep-layer lift
coming to the 850mb-500mb layer. There are lingering model
differences as to how quick the front and upper wave pass. This
has implications on how quickly precipitation decreases from the
west, i.e. toward late evening or not until the later overnight
hours going into Friday morning. Either way much of the region
stands a pretty good chance of seeing wetting rains (over a tenth
of an inch). Some areas may pick up between 0.30 to 0.75 inches of
rain, especially northeast WA and the ID Panhandle and the
Cascades.

There is a thunder potential with this system too. In the late
afternoon and evening hours models shows some uncapped CAPE across
the upper Columbia Basin through northeast WA mountains, with some
negative dtheta/dz lapse rates. Overnight into Friday this shifts
to northeast WA and north ID overnight. Confidence is low with
regard to the available potential instability. However a pocket of
-20 to -25C 500mb come across the region and the system has
impressive lift. So I added a slight chance of thunderstorms
across these areas.

Temperatures are expected to be held back by the clouds and
precipitation Thursday, with highs expected to be below normal.
Temperatures in some areas may struggle to get to the 50. Winds
will also increase through by Thursday afternoon and remain in the
breezy category through the night, thanks to the increased
gradient and mixing with the incoming system.

From Friday to Friday night a trough trailing the exiting system
sags across the northern Rockies. With low-grade CAPE and
marginally negative LI values across northeast WA and north ID in
the afternoon and very early evening, in conjunction with a core
of colder 500 mb temperatures around -28 to -30C), this will mean
the threat of isolated to scattered showers. The modest mixing and
still tight gradient behind the exiting low will also mean breezy
to locally windy conditions. Depending on how much rain falls
prior to this period, these winds could lead to some blowing dust.
The best threat will be out toward the deeper Basin, where lighter
rainfall amounts are more likely with the Thursday system.
Otherwise look for a mix of sun and clouds, especially in the
afternoon. The overall shower threat and breezy conditions will
abate rapidly after sunset. I did add a few areas of patchy fog
overnight into early Friday morning across the sheltered mountain
valleys across northeast WA and north ID. The recent precipitation
moistening the BL and low level high pressure stretching across
this region will bring this threat. Temperatures will remain
slightly below normal. /J. Cote`

Saturday through Wednesday...A ridge of high pressure will bring
dry conditions to the region on Saturday then a shortwave trough
will move across the northern tier with a chance of showers north
of Interstate 90 early on Sunday. For the start of the work week
the region will be in moist southwest flow aloft that will keep
unsettled weather in the forecast through Wednesday. Southerly
flow will allow temperatures to remain on the warm side of climo
through Monday, then an upper low will move over the region with
cooler and showery weather expected through midweek. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A weak weather system is moving across the eastern third
of WA and the ID Panhandle this morning resulting in lowering
Cigs and light rain across these areas. Cigs for the GEG-SFF-COE
corridor have now dropped to MVFR, but are expected to rise back
to VFR this afternoon after the wave passes. Light stratiform rain
will become more convective this afternoon with rain showers
possible at the KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW and KLWS TAF sites. Moving
into this evening will bring an end to precip chances leaving
mostly cloudy to overcast VFR conditions for the region. Tomorrow
morning we will see the next wave start to enter the region from
west to east bringing lower Cigs (likely MVFR for some) and a
higher chance for widespread precip. /Fliehman



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        41  53  40  56  35  63 /  20  90 100  40   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  39  52  41  55  33  63 /  40  90 100  50  10   0
Pullman        41  58  41  53  34  63 /  20  60 100  30   0   0
Lewiston       43  64  45  59  38  69 /  20  40  90  20   0   0
Colville       38  56  41  61  32  68 /  30  90 100  30  10  10
Sandpoint      39  51  41  54  32  62 /  30  90 100  60  20  10
Kellogg        38  52  39  52  34  62 /  40  60 100  60  10   0
Moses Lake     46  61  42  64  36  69 /  10  60  50  10   0  10
Wenatchee      47  60  41  62  41  67 /  20  60  20  10   0  10
Omak           41  59  38  62  34  67 /  20  60  40  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 161801
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1101 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Another weather system will bring more showers to the Inland
Northwest today. A stronger system will result in widespread rain
Thursday and Thursday night. At this time the Easter Weekend
looks to be mild and dry. Showers return to the forecast for the
first part of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Morning Update: This morning we will continue to see a weak wave
passing through the eastern third of WA and the ID Panhandle which
in turn will bring light showers to much of this area. Although
the coverage of precip is widespread in the specified areas,
overall amounts will remain on the light side with most areas
only seeing a few hundredths at most. Higher elevation locations
will see slightly more as topographical influences will help to
increase precip amounts. Chances for precip in the lower Basin
were decreased as it appears most of the rain chances have exited
this area. Only a shower here or there is about the only chance
that will remain.

Concerning showers in the afternoon, we will see a shift from
stratiform showers as we saw this morning to more spotty weak
convective showers. With the shift, precip amounts still look to
remain light. Addressing the changes, I did lower POP chances as
convective forcing will be limited. The chance for any sun breaks
is essentially zero not allowing the atmosphere to destabilize.
How this afternoon shapes up is something we will have to continue
to monitor.
&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A weak weather system is moving across the eastern third
of WA and the ID Panhandle this morning resulting in lowering
Cigs and light rain across these areas. Cigs for the GEG-SFF-COE
corridor have now dropped to MVFR, but are expected to rise back
to VFR this afternoon after the wave passes. Light stratiform rain
will become more convective this afternoon with rain showers
possible at the KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW and KLWS TAF sites. Moving
into this evening will bring an end to precip chances leaving
mostly cloudy to overcast VFR conditions for the region. Tomorrow
morning we will see the next wave start to enter the region from
west to east bringing lower Cigs (likely MVFR for some) and a
higher chance for widespread precip. /Fliehman


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  42  54  41  56  35 /  50  20  70 100  40   0
Coeur d`Alene  53  40  53  41  55  32 /  60  40  70 100  50   0
Pullman        53  43  57  42  53  32 /  50  20  60  90  30   0
Lewiston       59  44  64  45  59  38 /  40  20  30  90  20   0
Colville       59  41  57  42  61  31 /  50  30  80  90  30   0
Sandpoint      53  39  53  42  54  30 /  70  30  70 100  60  10
Kellogg        50  39  52  40  53  36 /  70  40  50 100  60  10
Moses Lake     63  48  61  43  64  35 /  20  10  60  40  10   0
Wenatchee      63  45  61  41  62  41 /  20  20  70  30  10   0
Omak           61  41  60  39  62  33 /  30  20  70  40  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 161634
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
932 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND MOST
OF NW OREGON THIS MORNING...THEN SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND OCCURS FRIDAY...BUT THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY. THE UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...SCALED BACK POPS SOME THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR THE VALLEY AND THE SOUTH WITH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING IN PLACE. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON TO MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHERN TIER.THAT SAID IT WILL BE
A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH OCCASIONAL DRIBS AND DRABS POSSIBLE...AND
MORE SUNBREAKS SOUTH THAN NORTH.  WEAK RIDGING KEEPS THINGS AT BAY
THIS EVENING AND THEN THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT MAKE BETTER
PROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.

PW VALUES ARE ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR APRIL...SO
A BIT OF A WET DAY TOMORROW BUT NOTHING TOO EXTREME...WITH A BURST OF
MORE MODERATE TO HEAVIER RAIN WITH THE FRONT LATER AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WITH COUPLED FORCING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL BRIEFLY STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 7 DEG/KM.
SNOW LEVELS DO NOT GET DOWN TO THE PASSES UNTIL THE TAIL END OF THE
COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. /KMD

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WARM
CONVEYER BELT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NE PACIFIC EARLY THIS MORNING.
WARM-ADVECTIVE OVER-RUNNING PATTERN WILL BE THE THEME TODAY. NWS KRTX
DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR SHOWING INCREASING RADAR RETURNS OVER SW WA
AND MOST OF NW OREGON AS OF 09Z. SOME ISOLATED 45-50 DBZ ECHOES
MOVING ACROSS THE N OREGON COAST RANGE.

NAM...GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EXPECT CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS ABOUT THE NRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. FAIRLY DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290K
LEVEL 12Z-18Z AS SHOWN BY THE GFS. BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
AT 0635Z INDICATED A NARROW SWATH OF AROUND 1 TO 1.2 INCHES ALONG 45N
AND 125-140W DIRECTED AT NW OREGON. MODELS INDICATE SOME
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS ONLY GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 560S. GFS
HANGS ON TO SOME LIGHT PRECIP WEST OF A KPDX-KONP LINE AND ALL OF SW
WA THIS AFTERNOON. ECMWF IS FAIRLY SIMILAR WHILE THE NAM IS A BIT
MORE SOUTH WITH THE QPF. ALL IN ALL...A CLASSIC DIRTY RIDGE PATTERN.
THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT PIVOTS INTO A MORE N TO S ORIENTATION. THIS COLD FRONT APPEARS
TO BE ENHANCED BY A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE DROPPING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH
POSITION OUT AROUND 135W. THERE ARE SOME MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...
WITH THE ECMWF ABOUT 6 HRS FASTER THAN THE GFS. BELIEVE THE SLOWER
TIMING MAY BE BETTER AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT. CATEGORICAL POPS IN LINE FOR THE NRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST ARE THU MORNING...THEN SPREADING TO THE REMAINDER THU
AFTERNOON. SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT...WITH
SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES BY 12Z FRI. MODEST
850 MB OROGRAPHIC FLOW THU NIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25 KT PER THE
GFS...BUT A LITTLE LESS ON THE ECMWF. KEPT A THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING
FOR THE CASCADES FRI MORNING.

ZONAL FLOW FRI AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HIGH PRES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. GFS KEEPS THE AIR MASS SOMEWHAT COOL FRI
AFTERNOON WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 0C OVER SW WA TO ABOUT 6C OVER THE
CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES. THIS IS ABOUT 2-3C COOLER THAN THE ECMWF.
STILL EXPECT FRI HIGH TEMPS TO GET NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
WITH THE HIGH SUN ANGLE. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...THE DRY PERIOD LOOKS TO HOLD FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING.
HOWEVER...MODEL DIFFERENCES EVIDENT WITH REGARD TO THE NEXT SYSTEM.
GFS KEEPS THINGS DRY THRU 18Z SAT. THE ECMWF AND GEM BRING THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT FRONT TO THE COAST BY 18Z. MAY NEED TO
BOOST POPS EVEN MORE...BUT WILL LET DAY SHIFT MAKE ANY NEEDED
ADJUSTMENTS AFTER THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARRIVES. SOME QUESTION MARKS ABOUT
SUN AS THE GFS...ECMWF AND GEM ALL KEEP A THREAT OF PRECIP OVER SW WA
AND EXTREME NW OREGON. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN
DRY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER
DAY 5 LEADING TO A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS FOR DAYS 6 AND 7.
THE FLOW APPEARS TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...SO IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO
FOLLOW SOMETHING CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A FEW AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS IN
CASCADES WITH MVFR CIGS. LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY...MAINLY
FROM KSLE NORTHWARD.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. LIGHT RAIN
PERSISTS NEXT 24 HRS. COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AREA LATE THU MORNING
BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. PRES GRADIENT NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...SO WIND GUSTS WILL TOP
AROUND 20 KT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 7 TO 8 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.
A STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES ON THU. THIS FRONT APPEARS TO BRING
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING 25 KT...AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WE GET CLOSER. SEAS SHOULD COME UP A BIT
MORE WITH THIS SYSTEM...LIKELY 8 TO 10 FT THU THROUGH FRI. TW

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO 9
AM PDT
     THURSDAY.

&&


$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KPQR 161634
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
932 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND MOST
OF NW OREGON THIS MORNING...THEN SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND OCCURS FRIDAY...BUT THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY. THE UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...SCALED BACK POPS SOME THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR THE VALLEY AND THE SOUTH WITH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING IN PLACE. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON TO MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHERN TIER.THAT SAID IT WILL BE
A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH OCCASIONAL DRIBS AND DRABS POSSIBLE...AND
MORE SUNBREAKS SOUTH THAN NORTH.  WEAK RIDGING KEEPS THINGS AT BAY
THIS EVENING AND THEN THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT MAKE BETTER
PROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.

PW VALUES ARE ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR APRIL...SO
A BIT OF A WET DAY TOMORROW BUT NOTHING TOO EXTREME...WITH A BURST OF
MORE MODERATE TO HEAVIER RAIN WITH THE FRONT LATER AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WITH COUPLED FORCING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL BRIEFLY STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 7 DEG/KM.
SNOW LEVELS DO NOT GET DOWN TO THE PASSES UNTIL THE TAIL END OF THE
COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. /KMD

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WARM
CONVEYER BELT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NE PACIFIC EARLY THIS MORNING.
WARM-ADVECTIVE OVER-RUNNING PATTERN WILL BE THE THEME TODAY. NWS KRTX
DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR SHOWING INCREASING RADAR RETURNS OVER SW WA
AND MOST OF NW OREGON AS OF 09Z. SOME ISOLATED 45-50 DBZ ECHOES
MOVING ACROSS THE N OREGON COAST RANGE.

NAM...GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EXPECT CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS ABOUT THE NRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. FAIRLY DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290K
LEVEL 12Z-18Z AS SHOWN BY THE GFS. BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
AT 0635Z INDICATED A NARROW SWATH OF AROUND 1 TO 1.2 INCHES ALONG 45N
AND 125-140W DIRECTED AT NW OREGON. MODELS INDICATE SOME
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS ONLY GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 560S. GFS
HANGS ON TO SOME LIGHT PRECIP WEST OF A KPDX-KONP LINE AND ALL OF SW
WA THIS AFTERNOON. ECMWF IS FAIRLY SIMILAR WHILE THE NAM IS A BIT
MORE SOUTH WITH THE QPF. ALL IN ALL...A CLASSIC DIRTY RIDGE PATTERN.
THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT PIVOTS INTO A MORE N TO S ORIENTATION. THIS COLD FRONT APPEARS
TO BE ENHANCED BY A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE DROPPING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH
POSITION OUT AROUND 135W. THERE ARE SOME MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...
WITH THE ECMWF ABOUT 6 HRS FASTER THAN THE GFS. BELIEVE THE SLOWER
TIMING MAY BE BETTER AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT. CATEGORICAL POPS IN LINE FOR THE NRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST ARE THU MORNING...THEN SPREADING TO THE REMAINDER THU
AFTERNOON. SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT...WITH
SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES BY 12Z FRI. MODEST
850 MB OROGRAPHIC FLOW THU NIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25 KT PER THE
GFS...BUT A LITTLE LESS ON THE ECMWF. KEPT A THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING
FOR THE CASCADES FRI MORNING.

ZONAL FLOW FRI AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HIGH PRES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. GFS KEEPS THE AIR MASS SOMEWHAT COOL FRI
AFTERNOON WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 0C OVER SW WA TO ABOUT 6C OVER THE
CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES. THIS IS ABOUT 2-3C COOLER THAN THE ECMWF.
STILL EXPECT FRI HIGH TEMPS TO GET NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
WITH THE HIGH SUN ANGLE. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...THE DRY PERIOD LOOKS TO HOLD FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING.
HOWEVER...MODEL DIFFERENCES EVIDENT WITH REGARD TO THE NEXT SYSTEM.
GFS KEEPS THINGS DRY THRU 18Z SAT. THE ECMWF AND GEM BRING THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT FRONT TO THE COAST BY 18Z. MAY NEED TO
BOOST POPS EVEN MORE...BUT WILL LET DAY SHIFT MAKE ANY NEEDED
ADJUSTMENTS AFTER THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARRIVES. SOME QUESTION MARKS ABOUT
SUN AS THE GFS...ECMWF AND GEM ALL KEEP A THREAT OF PRECIP OVER SW WA
AND EXTREME NW OREGON. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN
DRY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER
DAY 5 LEADING TO A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS FOR DAYS 6 AND 7.
THE FLOW APPEARS TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...SO IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO
FOLLOW SOMETHING CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A FEW AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS IN
CASCADES WITH MVFR CIGS. LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY...MAINLY
FROM KSLE NORTHWARD.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. LIGHT RAIN
PERSISTS NEXT 24 HRS. COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AREA LATE THU MORNING
BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. PRES GRADIENT NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...SO WIND GUSTS WILL TOP
AROUND 20 KT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 7 TO 8 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.
A STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES ON THU. THIS FRONT APPEARS TO BRING
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING 25 KT...AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WE GET CLOSER. SEAS SHOULD COME UP A BIT
MORE WITH THIS SYSTEM...LIKELY 8 TO 10 FT THU THROUGH FRI. TW

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO 9
AM PDT
     THURSDAY.

&&


$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 161634
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
932 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND MOST
OF NW OREGON THIS MORNING...THEN SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND OCCURS FRIDAY...BUT THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY. THE UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...SCALED BACK POPS SOME THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR THE VALLEY AND THE SOUTH WITH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING IN PLACE. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON TO MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHERN TIER.THAT SAID IT WILL BE
A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH OCCASIONAL DRIBS AND DRABS POSSIBLE...AND
MORE SUNBREAKS SOUTH THAN NORTH.  WEAK RIDGING KEEPS THINGS AT BAY
THIS EVENING AND THEN THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT MAKE BETTER
PROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.

PW VALUES ARE ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR APRIL...SO
A BIT OF A WET DAY TOMORROW BUT NOTHING TOO EXTREME...WITH A BURST OF
MORE MODERATE TO HEAVIER RAIN WITH THE FRONT LATER AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WITH COUPLED FORCING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL BRIEFLY STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 7 DEG/KM.
SNOW LEVELS DO NOT GET DOWN TO THE PASSES UNTIL THE TAIL END OF THE
COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. /KMD

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WARM
CONVEYER BELT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NE PACIFIC EARLY THIS MORNING.
WARM-ADVECTIVE OVER-RUNNING PATTERN WILL BE THE THEME TODAY. NWS KRTX
DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR SHOWING INCREASING RADAR RETURNS OVER SW WA
AND MOST OF NW OREGON AS OF 09Z. SOME ISOLATED 45-50 DBZ ECHOES
MOVING ACROSS THE N OREGON COAST RANGE.

NAM...GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EXPECT CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS ABOUT THE NRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. FAIRLY DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290K
LEVEL 12Z-18Z AS SHOWN BY THE GFS. BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
AT 0635Z INDICATED A NARROW SWATH OF AROUND 1 TO 1.2 INCHES ALONG 45N
AND 125-140W DIRECTED AT NW OREGON. MODELS INDICATE SOME
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS ONLY GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 560S. GFS
HANGS ON TO SOME LIGHT PRECIP WEST OF A KPDX-KONP LINE AND ALL OF SW
WA THIS AFTERNOON. ECMWF IS FAIRLY SIMILAR WHILE THE NAM IS A BIT
MORE SOUTH WITH THE QPF. ALL IN ALL...A CLASSIC DIRTY RIDGE PATTERN.
THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT PIVOTS INTO A MORE N TO S ORIENTATION. THIS COLD FRONT APPEARS
TO BE ENHANCED BY A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE DROPPING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH
POSITION OUT AROUND 135W. THERE ARE SOME MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...
WITH THE ECMWF ABOUT 6 HRS FASTER THAN THE GFS. BELIEVE THE SLOWER
TIMING MAY BE BETTER AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT. CATEGORICAL POPS IN LINE FOR THE NRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST ARE THU MORNING...THEN SPREADING TO THE REMAINDER THU
AFTERNOON. SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT...WITH
SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES BY 12Z FRI. MODEST
850 MB OROGRAPHIC FLOW THU NIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25 KT PER THE
GFS...BUT A LITTLE LESS ON THE ECMWF. KEPT A THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING
FOR THE CASCADES FRI MORNING.

ZONAL FLOW FRI AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HIGH PRES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. GFS KEEPS THE AIR MASS SOMEWHAT COOL FRI
AFTERNOON WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 0C OVER SW WA TO ABOUT 6C OVER THE
CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES. THIS IS ABOUT 2-3C COOLER THAN THE ECMWF.
STILL EXPECT FRI HIGH TEMPS TO GET NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
WITH THE HIGH SUN ANGLE. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...THE DRY PERIOD LOOKS TO HOLD FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING.
HOWEVER...MODEL DIFFERENCES EVIDENT WITH REGARD TO THE NEXT SYSTEM.
GFS KEEPS THINGS DRY THRU 18Z SAT. THE ECMWF AND GEM BRING THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT FRONT TO THE COAST BY 18Z. MAY NEED TO
BOOST POPS EVEN MORE...BUT WILL LET DAY SHIFT MAKE ANY NEEDED
ADJUSTMENTS AFTER THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARRIVES. SOME QUESTION MARKS ABOUT
SUN AS THE GFS...ECMWF AND GEM ALL KEEP A THREAT OF PRECIP OVER SW WA
AND EXTREME NW OREGON. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN
DRY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER
DAY 5 LEADING TO A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS FOR DAYS 6 AND 7.
THE FLOW APPEARS TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...SO IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO
FOLLOW SOMETHING CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A FEW AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS IN
CASCADES WITH MVFR CIGS. LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY...MAINLY
FROM KSLE NORTHWARD.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. LIGHT RAIN
PERSISTS NEXT 24 HRS. COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AREA LATE THU MORNING
BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. PRES GRADIENT NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...SO WIND GUSTS WILL TOP
AROUND 20 KT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 7 TO 8 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.
A STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES ON THU. THIS FRONT APPEARS TO BRING
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING 25 KT...AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WE GET CLOSER. SEAS SHOULD COME UP A BIT
MORE WITH THIS SYSTEM...LIKELY 8 TO 10 FT THU THROUGH FRI. TW

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO 9
AM PDT
     THURSDAY.

&&


$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KSEW 161617
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
915 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION TODAY FOR RAIN
AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY.
DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. THE NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA FROM
THE WEST TODAY WITH WARM ADVECTION PROVIDING SOME LIFT AND GIVING
RAIN AT TIMES. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR
SOME AREAS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN TO THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SHOWERS LATE IN THE
DAY. IT WILL PROBABLY BE BREEZY MOST AREAS THURSDAY EVENING BEHIND
THE FRONT IN STRONG ONSHORE FLOW. SHOWERS WILL TAPER THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOSTLY CONFINED TO A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE AND OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY DRY DAY
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS LOW
AS THE MODELS ARE STILL NOT ALIGNED. THE GENERAL PATTERN CONSISTS OF
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NE PAC WITH A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSSING
WESTERN WA. BUT THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH SYSTEM IS STILL UNCLEAR.
THEREFORE WILL NOT MAKE ANY WIDESPREAD CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE EXCEPTION IS THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF
THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE NEAR OSO WHERE A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THIS RIVER AS A
RESULT OF WATER POOLED BEHIND THE DEBRIS DAM THAT PARTIALLY BLOCKS
THE RIVER.

THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH NEAR ARLINGTON IS FORECAST TO
RISE ABOUT A FOOT TODAY...THEN RISE AN ADDITIONAL FOUR FEET ON
THURSDAY WITH A CREST CLOSE TO 9 FEET. THE RIVER LEVEL WILL BEGIN
FALLING LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE FALLING FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

TOTAL RAINFALL FOR THE SLIDE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF TWO INCHES.

ADDITIONAL FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE SLIDE AREA LATER SATURDAY AND
MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ESPECIALLY WET OR
HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT BUT THEY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WET.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THRU
TONIGHT. CONTD STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
SLY OR ONSHORE. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST BUT STABLE.
ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD CIGS IN THE 1-3K FT RANGE ALONG WITH AREAS OF
VSBYS IN THE 3-5SM RANGE DUE TO RAIN AND/OR FOG. THE MTNS WILL BE
OBSCD.

KSEA...FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT CIGS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 1500 TO
2500 FT RANGE TODAY. EXPECT OCNL VFR CIGS /AOB 4K FT/ DURING THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BE SLY 8-13 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE OR SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
THU. HIGH PRES ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST AND LOWER PRES E OF THE
CASCADES WILL RESULT IN LIGHT ONSHORE OR WESTERLY FLOW ON FRI.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
      STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML













000
FXUS66 KOTX 161146
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
446 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Another weather system will bring more showers to the Inland
Northwest today. A stronger system will result in widespread rain
Thursday and Thursday night. At this time the Easter Weekend
looks to be mild and dry. Showers return to the forecast for the
first part of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight: An upper level shortwave disturbance will push
across the region this morning into this afternoon. There will be
a couple main forcing mechanisms that will help generate light
rain and mountain snow this morning. One will be a 120 kt jet
streak oriented NW to SE across western WA. This will place
eastern WA and the ID Panhandle in the more favorable left exit
region. We will also see some weak isentropic ascent across much
of the eastern two-thirds of the forecast area. The one factor
that will inhibit precip is relatively dry air near the surface.
Dew point temps remain in the low to mid 20s across much of the
region early this morning. It will take some time for the
atmosphere to moisten through the morning hours before any precip
is observed at the surface. Light rain and mountain snow is
expected to fill in across the region after about 9:00 AM this
morning. At first I think we will see mainly stratiform precip,
but should transition to more of a convective regime through the
afternoon with the focus of precip gradually shifting more into
the ID Panhandle into tonight.

Thursday Morning into Thursday Afternoon: A much wetter weather
system will enter into the region during this period. This system
will feature stronger isentropic ascent in the warm sector with
widespread stratiform precip across much of the region. Snow
levels will increase to above 6,000 feet with mainly rain for all
areas. Overall, Thursday will be a cloudy and increasingly rainy
day. High temperatures both Wednesday and Thursday will be below
normal topping out in the 50s to low 60s for most valley locations.
/SVH

Thursday night through Saturday: Well-defined cold front will move
through the area Thursday night. The short wave aloft that
accompanies this front has a nice negative tilt to it as it moves
through the Inland Northwest. This would typically favor
thunderstorm development. But in this case, the timing is off, as
the trough moves through overnight instead of during the peak
heating. The 500mb cold pool also moves over on Friday morning,
again, not ideal for convection. However, the model timing has
been changing over the past few runs. The GFS has been
consistently trending slower, and the 00Z ECMWF was slower than
the 12Z run. If that trend continues, then things may line up
better for convection Thursday night as well as Friday afternoon.

The models all agree on a fairly impressive moisture tap for this
front. Precipitable water values are about two times normal for
mid-April. So we should see some decent rainfall amounts from this
system, in contrast to the past several fronts.

The other issue with this system is the wind potential for
Friday. The slower GFS has the strongest winds. But again, given
the less- than-ideal timing of this system, I kept the winds in
the 10-20 mph range. RJ

Sunday through Wednesday: The flow pattern over the Inland
Northwest will become more southwest, or even south, with time as
we head into next week. This means more active weather for most
areas, eventually. The transition periods between Sunday and
Monday morning look to stay mostly dry outside of the Cascades as
a large trough gets closer to the Pacific Northwest coastline.
There are still some timing and placement issues with regards to
the trough moving inland, but right now it looks like this will
take place sometime Monday night or Tuesday. This forecast
continues the trend of precipitation chances peaking during this
time frame, and then trailing off for Wednesday (becoming more
showery). Temperatures were adjusted slightly, but still look to
be at or above normal by a few degrees. However, if clouds hold on
longer or the rainfall is more prolonged, temperatures may
struggle to reach normal. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A weak weather system this morning will result in
lowering cigs and light rain across the region. Cigs will
generally remain above 3 kft agl, but MVFR conditions cannot be
ruled out. Light stratiform rain will become more convective this
afternoon with rain showers possible at the KGEG, KSFF, KCOE,
KPUW and KLWS TAF sites. Cigs will improve this evening with
showers limited mainly to the mountains. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  42  54  41  56  35 /  70  20  70 100  40   0
Coeur d`Alene  53  40  53  41  55  32 /  70  40  70 100  50   0
Pullman        53  43  57  42  53  32 /  60  20  60  90  30   0
Lewiston       59  44  64  45  59  38 /  40  20  30  90  20   0
Colville       59  41  57  42  61  31 /  70  30  80  90  30   0
Sandpoint      53  39  53  42  54  30 /  70  30  70 100  60  10
Kellogg        50  39  52  40  53  36 /  80  40  50 100  60  10
Moses Lake     63  48  61  43  64  35 /  30  10  60  40  10   0
Wenatchee      63  45  61  41  62  41 /  30  20  70  30  10   0
Omak           61  41  60  39  62  33 /  50  20  70  40  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 161027
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION TODAY FOR RAIN
AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY.
DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. THE NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...EXPECT RAIN AT TIMES ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY
AS A WARM FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY FOR ANOTHER WET DAY. THERE IS LITTLE BREAK IN THE
ACTION AND WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT EAST THURSDAY EVENING. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AND A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL
LIKELY FORM OVER THE CENTRAL SOUND. SHOWERS WITH THE CONVERGENCE
ZONE MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT
MORNING. WET WEATHER WILL RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE
NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES. 33

.LONG TERM...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS LOW
AS THE MODELS ARE STILL NOT ALIGNED. THE GENERAL PATTERN CONSISTS OF
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NE PAC WITH A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSSING
WESTERN WA. BUT THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH SYSTEM IS STILL UNCLEAR.
THEREFORE WILL NOT MAKE ANY WIDESPREAD CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. 33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE EXCEPTION IS THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF
THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE NEAR OSO WHERE A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THIS RIVER AS A
RESULT OF WATER POOLED BEHIND THE DEBRIS DAM THAT PARTIALLY BLOCKS
THE RIVER.

THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH NEAR ARLINGTON IS FORECAST TO
RISE ABOUT A FOOT TODAY...THEN RISE AN ADDITIONAL FOUR FEET ON
THURSDAY WITH A CREST CLOSE TO 9 FEET. THE RIVER LEVEL WILL BEGIN
FALLING LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE FALLING FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

TOTAL RAINFALL FOR THE SLIDE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF TWO INCHES.

ADDITIONAL FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE SLIDE AREA LATER SATURDAY AND
MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ESPECIALLY WET OR
HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT BUT THEY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WET.

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE OVER THE
PAC NW TONIGHT. MODERATE W-SW FLOW ALOFT. A WARM FRONT STALLED
ACROSS WRN WA WILL LIFT N OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A TROUGH AND SURFACE
FRONT ARRIVE THURSDAY. MOIST AT ALL LEVELS AND STABLE. RAIN AT TIMES.

MOSTLY MVFR CIGS 1-2K FT WITH RAIN AT TIMES. VIS LOCALLY DOWN TO
2-3SM ALONG THE COAST AND 3-5SM INTERIOR.

KSEA...S-SW WIND 6-12 KT. RAIN AT TIMES WITH MOSTLY MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THURSDAY...OCCASIONALLY IMPROVING TO A 3-5K FT CIG.

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT NWD TONIGHT
AS THE FLOW LIFTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW END SMALL
CRAFT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND W ENTRANCE
TO THE STRAIT THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE EASING. WINDS ELSEWHERE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KT.

A STRONGER FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TO MOST OF
THE WATERS ON THURSDAY. GALE FORCE WESTERLIES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRAIT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WINDS
EASE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA. DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
      STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST AND WEST ENTRANCE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KOTX 160949
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
249 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Another weather system will bring more showers to the Inland
Northwest today. A stronger system will result in widespread rain
Thursday and Thursday night. At this time the Easter Weekend
looks to be mild and dry. Showers return to the forecast for the
first part of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight: An upper level shortwave disturbance will push
across the region this morning into this afternoon. There will be
a couple main forcing mechanisms that will help generate light
rain and mountain snow this morning. One will be a 120 kt jet
streak oriented NW to SE across western WA. This will place
eastern WA and the ID Panhandle in the more favorable left exit
region. We will also see some weak isentropic ascent across much
of the eastern two-thirds of the forecast area. The one factor
that will inhibit precip is relatively dry air near the surface.
Dew point temps remain in the low to mid 20s across much of the
region early this morning. It will take some time for the
atmosphere to moisten through the morning hours before any precip
is observed at the surface. Light rain and mountain snow is
expected to fill in across the region after about 9:00 AM this
morning. At first I think we will see mainly stratiform precip,
but should transition to more of a convective regime through the
afternoon with the focus of precip gradually shifting more into
the ID Panhandle into tonight.

Thursday Morning into Thursday Afternoon: A much wetter weather
system will enter into the region during this period. This system
will feature stronger isentropic ascent in the warm sector with
widespread stratiform precip across much of the region. Snow
levels will increase to above 6,000 feet with mainly rain for all
areas. Overall, Thursday will be a cloudy and increasingly rainy
day. High temperatures both Wednesday and Thursday will be below
normal topping out in the 50s to low 60s for most valley locations.
/SVH

Thursday night through Saturday: Well-defined cold front will move
through the area Thursday night. The short wave aloft that
accompanies this front has a nice negative tilt to it as it moves
through the Inland Northwest. This would typically favor
thunderstorm development. But in this case, the timing is off, as
the trough moves through overnight instead of during the peak
heating. The 500mb cold pool also moves over on Friday morning,
again, not ideal for convection. However, the model timing has
been changing over the past few runs. The GFS has been
consistently trending slower, and the 00Z ECMWF was slower than
the 12Z run. If that trend continues, then things may line up
better for convection Thursday night as well as Friday afternoon.

The models all agree on a fairly impressive moisture tap for this
front. Precipitable water values are about two times normal for
mid-April. So we should see some decent rainfall amounts from this
system, in contrast to the past several fronts.

The other issue with this system is the wind potential for
Friday. The slower GFS has the strongest winds. But again, given
the less- than-ideal timing of this system, I kept the winds in
the 10-20 mph range. RJ

Sunday through Wednesday: The flow pattern over the Inland
Northwest will become more southwest, or even south, with time as
we head into next week. This means more active weather for most
areas, eventually. The transition periods between Sunday and
Monday morning look to stay mostly dry outside of the Cascades as
a large trough gets closer to the Pacific Northwest coastline.
There are still some timing and placement issues with regards to
the trough moving inland, but right now it looks like this will
take place sometime Monday night or Tuesday. This forecast
continues the trend of precipitation chances peaking during this
time frame, and then trailing off for Wednesday (becoming more
showery). Temperatures were adjusted slightly, but still look to
be at or above normal by a few degrees. However, if clouds hold on
longer or the rainfall is more prolonged, temperatures may
struggle to reach normal. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The next weather feature is already spreading high
clouds, which will thicken and lower through the night. A broad
overcast deck and a chance of light showers will start aft 09z
across the central part of WA and spread east through the early
morning hours. Rain showers will be a good bet across most of
eastern WA and north ID aft 18z. Cigs will remain OVC VFR through
06z Thur.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  42  54  41  56  35 /  70  20  70 100  40   0
Coeur d`Alene  53  40  53  41  55  32 /  70  40  70 100  50   0
Pullman        53  43  57  42  53  32 /  60  20  60  90  30   0
Lewiston       59  44  64  45  59  38 /  40  20  30  90  20   0
Colville       59  41  57  42  61  31 /  70  30  80  90  30   0
Sandpoint      53  39  53  42  54  30 /  70  30  70 100  60  10
Kellogg        50  39  52  40  53  36 /  80  40  50 100  60  10
Moses Lake     63  48  61  43  64  35 /  30  10  60  40  10   0
Wenatchee      63  45  61  41  62  41 /  30  20  70  30  10   0
Omak           61  41  60  39  62  33 /  50  20  70  40  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 160921
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
220 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND MOST
OF NW OREGON THIS MORNING...THEN SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND OCCURS FRIDAY...BUT THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY. THE UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WARM
CONVEYER BELT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NE PACIFIC EARLY THIS MORNING.
WARM-ADVECTIVE OVER-RUNNING PATTERN WILL BE THE THEME TODAY. NWS KRTX
DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR SHOWING INCREASING RADAR RETURNS OVER SW WA
AND MOST OF NW OREGON AS OF 09Z. SOME ISOLATED 45-50 DBZ ECHOES
MOVING ACROSS THE N OREGON COAST RANGE.

NAM...GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EXPECT CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS ABOUT THE NRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. FAIRLY DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290K
LEVEL 12Z-18Z AS SHOWN BY THE GFS. BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
AT 0635Z INDICATED A NARROW SWATH OF AROUND 1 TO 1.2 INCHES ALONG 45N
AND 125-140W DIRECTED AT NW OREGON. MODELS INDICATE SOME
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS ONLY GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 560S. GFS
HANGS ON TO SOME LIGHT PRECIP WEST OF A KPDX-KONP LINE AND ALL OF SW
WA THIS AFTERNOON. ECMWF IS FAIRLY SIMILAR WHILE THE NAM IS A BIT
MORE SOUTH WITH THE QPF. ALL IN ALL...A CLASSIC DIRTY RIDGE PATTERN.
THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT PIVOTS INTO A MORE N TO S ORIENTATION. THIS COLD FRONT APPEARS
TO BE ENHANCED BY A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE DROPPING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH
POSITION OUT AROUND 135W. THERE ARE SOME MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...
WITH THE ECMWF ABOUT 6 HRS FASTER THAN THE GFS. BELIEVE THE SLOWER
TIMING MAY BE BETTER AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT. CATEGORICAL POPS IN LINE FOR THE NRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST ARE THU MORNING...THEN SPREADING TO THE REMAINDER THU
AFTERNOON. SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT...WITH
SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES BY 12Z FRI. MODEST
850 MB OROGRAPHIC FLOW THU NIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25 KT PER THE
GFS...BUT A LITTLE LESS ON THE ECMWF. KEPT A THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING
FOR THE CASCADES FRI MORNING.

ZONAL FLOW FRI AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HIGH PRES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. GFS KEEPS THE AIR MASS SOMEWHAT COOL FRI
AFTERNOON WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 0C OVER SW WA TO ABOUT 6C OVER THE
CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES. THIS IS ABOUT 2-3C COOLER THAN THE ECMWF.
STILL EXPECT FRI HIGH TEMPS TO GET NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
WITH THE HIGH SUN ANGLE. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...THE DRY PERIOD LOOKS TO HOLD FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING.
HOWEVER...MODEL DIFFERENCES EVIDENT WITH REGARD TO THE NEXT SYSTEM.
GFS KEEPS THINGS DRY THRU 18Z SAT. THE ECMWF AND GEM BRING THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT FRONT TO THE COAST BY 18Z. MAY NEED TO
BOOST POPS EVEN MORE...BUT WILL LET DAY SHIFT MAKE ANY NEEDED
ADJUSTMENTS AFTER THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARRIVES. SOME QUESTION MARKS ABOUT
SUN AS THE GFS...ECMWF AND GEM ALL KEEP A THREAT OF PRECIP OVER SW WA
AND EXTREME NW OREGON. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN
DRY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER
DAY 5 LEADING TO A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS FOR DAYS 6 AND 7.
THE FLOW APPEARS TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...SO IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO
FOLLOW SOMETHING CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS CONTINUE
THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS AROUND 2K FT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT
MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH 18-20Z THIS MORNING...BUT IT MAY BE MORE ON
THE PATCHY SIDE. LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TODAY...WITH
SOME MINIMAL LIFTING OF CIGS AFTER 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR APPEARS TO BE INLAND FROM ABOUT KSLE
SOUTH. EXPECT FREQUENT MTNS OBSCURATIONS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS
AROUND 2000-2500 FT EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASING MVFR CIGS
FROM 14-19Z. LIGHT RAIN PERSISTS NEXT 24 HRS. /27

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT
INTO WED AM. PRES GRADIENT NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...AND LATEST SHORT
TERM FCST MODELS INDICATE THAT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL NOT REACH
MUCH HIGHER THAN 20 KT. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KT LATER THIS MORNING...BUT DO NOT THINK THEY WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY THE ADVISORY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
RUN 7 TO 8 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

AFTER A BIT OF A LULL...A STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES ON THU. THIS
FRONT APPEARS TO BRING BETTER POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING 25
KT...AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WE GET
CLOSER. SEAS SHOULD COME UP A BIT MORE WITH THIS SYSTEM...LIKELY 8
TO 10 FT THU THROUGH FRI. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM PDT
THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 160921
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
220 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND MOST
OF NW OREGON THIS MORNING...THEN SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND OCCURS FRIDAY...BUT THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION SATURDAY. THE UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WARM
CONVEYER BELT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NE PACIFIC EARLY THIS MORNING.
WARM-ADVECTIVE OVER-RUNNING PATTERN WILL BE THE THEME TODAY. NWS KRTX
DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR SHOWING INCREASING RADAR RETURNS OVER SW WA
AND MOST OF NW OREGON AS OF 09Z. SOME ISOLATED 45-50 DBZ ECHOES
MOVING ACROSS THE N OREGON COAST RANGE.

NAM...GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EXPECT CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS ABOUT THE NRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. FAIRLY DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290K
LEVEL 12Z-18Z AS SHOWN BY THE GFS. BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
AT 0635Z INDICATED A NARROW SWATH OF AROUND 1 TO 1.2 INCHES ALONG 45N
AND 125-140W DIRECTED AT NW OREGON. MODELS INDICATE SOME
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS ONLY GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 560S. GFS
HANGS ON TO SOME LIGHT PRECIP WEST OF A KPDX-KONP LINE AND ALL OF SW
WA THIS AFTERNOON. ECMWF IS FAIRLY SIMILAR WHILE THE NAM IS A BIT
MORE SOUTH WITH THE QPF. ALL IN ALL...A CLASSIC DIRTY RIDGE PATTERN.
THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT PIVOTS INTO A MORE N TO S ORIENTATION. THIS COLD FRONT APPEARS
TO BE ENHANCED BY A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE DROPPING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH
POSITION OUT AROUND 135W. THERE ARE SOME MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...
WITH THE ECMWF ABOUT 6 HRS FASTER THAN THE GFS. BELIEVE THE SLOWER
TIMING MAY BE BETTER AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT. CATEGORICAL POPS IN LINE FOR THE NRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST ARE THU MORNING...THEN SPREADING TO THE REMAINDER THU
AFTERNOON. SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT...WITH
SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES BY 12Z FRI. MODEST
850 MB OROGRAPHIC FLOW THU NIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25 KT PER THE
GFS...BUT A LITTLE LESS ON THE ECMWF. KEPT A THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING
FOR THE CASCADES FRI MORNING.

ZONAL FLOW FRI AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HIGH PRES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. GFS KEEPS THE AIR MASS SOMEWHAT COOL FRI
AFTERNOON WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 0C OVER SW WA TO ABOUT 6C OVER THE
CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES. THIS IS ABOUT 2-3C COOLER THAN THE ECMWF.
STILL EXPECT FRI HIGH TEMPS TO GET NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
WITH THE HIGH SUN ANGLE. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...THE DRY PERIOD LOOKS TO HOLD FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING.
HOWEVER...MODEL DIFFERENCES EVIDENT WITH REGARD TO THE NEXT SYSTEM.
GFS KEEPS THINGS DRY THRU 18Z SAT. THE ECMWF AND GEM BRING THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT FRONT TO THE COAST BY 18Z. MAY NEED TO
BOOST POPS EVEN MORE...BUT WILL LET DAY SHIFT MAKE ANY NEEDED
ADJUSTMENTS AFTER THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARRIVES. SOME QUESTION MARKS ABOUT
SUN AS THE GFS...ECMWF AND GEM ALL KEEP A THREAT OF PRECIP OVER SW WA
AND EXTREME NW OREGON. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN
DRY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER
DAY 5 LEADING TO A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS FOR DAYS 6 AND 7.
THE FLOW APPEARS TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...SO IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO
FOLLOW SOMETHING CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEISHAAR
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS CONTINUE
THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS AROUND 2K FT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT
MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH 18-20Z THIS MORNING...BUT IT MAY BE MORE ON
THE PATCHY SIDE. LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TODAY...WITH
SOME MINIMAL LIFTING OF CIGS AFTER 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR APPEARS TO BE INLAND FROM ABOUT KSLE
SOUTH. EXPECT FREQUENT MTNS OBSCURATIONS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS
AROUND 2000-2500 FT EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASING MVFR CIGS
FROM 14-19Z. LIGHT RAIN PERSISTS NEXT 24 HRS. /27

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT
INTO WED AM. PRES GRADIENT NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...AND LATEST SHORT
TERM FCST MODELS INDICATE THAT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL NOT REACH
MUCH HIGHER THAN 20 KT. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KT LATER THIS MORNING...BUT DO NOT THINK THEY WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY THE ADVISORY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
RUN 7 TO 8 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

AFTER A BIT OF A LULL...A STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES ON THU. THIS
FRONT APPEARS TO BRING BETTER POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING 25
KT...AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WE GET
CLOSER. SEAS SHOULD COME UP A BIT MORE WITH THIS SYSTEM...LIKELY 8
TO 10 FT THU THROUGH FRI. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM PDT
THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KOTX 160538
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1038 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy with light showers will decrease early evening across the
Inland Northwest. Another weather system will arrive by early
Wednesday morning and bring some light accumulating snow in the
mountains. The best chance for widespread rain is expected
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. At this time the Easter
Weekend looks to be mild and dry.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Quick update to remove most of the evening shower wording.
Isolated showers remain across portions of Shoshone and eastern
Kootenai, Benewah and Latah counties. They will be ending in the
next hour or so. Also increased cloud cover overnight. High clouds
over the area now will thicken and lower overnight ahead of the
next weather disturbance to move into the area. Tweaked slightly
the chance of precip overnight. Models agree that any precip that
falls in the overnight hours should be restricted to the Moses
Lake area westward. So took out precip chances across the Blue
Mtns and Camas Prairie /Nisbet



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The next weather feature is already spreading high
clouds, which will thicken and lower through the night. A broad
overcast deck and a chance of light showers will start aft 09z
across the central part of WA and spread east through the early
morning hours. Rain showers will be a good bet across most of
eastern WA and north ID aft 18z. Cigs will remain OVC VFR through
06z Thur.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        37  54  40  56  39  57 /  10  50  20  60  90  40
Coeur d`Alene  34  53  38  56  40  56 /   0  50  40  60  90  50
Pullman        35  53  41  57  40  54 /   0  60  20  50  90  30
Lewiston       41  59  41  64  43  60 /   0  60  20  30  80  20
Colville       35  59  37  61  37  62 /   0  40  30  80  80  30
Sandpoint      34  53  35  55  42  55 /  10  50  30  70  90  60
Kellogg        34  50  37  55  40  54 /  20  60  40  40  90  60
Moses Lake     42  63  46  63  39  65 /  20  20  10  60  40  10
Wenatchee      46  63  43  63  40  63 /  20  20  20  50  20  10
Omak           37  61  38  62  36  63 /  10  20  20  60  30  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&





000
FXUS66 KSEW 160433
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN
STALL OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY FOR RAIN AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY. DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST
ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE NEXT FRONT WILL
ARRIVE LATER SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DIFFUSE WARM FRONT JUST OFF
THE COAST THIS EVENING. ITS BEEN RAINING ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST
SINCE ABOUT 00Z WITH A FEW OBSERVATIONS IN THE INTERIOR STARTING TO
REPORT LIGHT RAIN AT 04Z. WITH THE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES ARE IN A
NARROW RANGE...MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OF RAIN AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY THIS
EVENING WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE OFF
THE COAST STREAMING TOWARDS WESTERN WASHINGTON IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. FLOW ALOFT TURNS A BIT NORTHWESTERLY RIGHT OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD RAIN SHADOW THE
CENTRAL SOUND FOR A LITTLE WHILE BUT EVENTUALLY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
THE MOISTURE WILL FILL IN HERE TOO AS WELL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
PICKING UP ALONG THE COAST WITH BOTH KUIL AND KHQM REPORTING OVER A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST HOUR. THESE RAINFALL RATES WILL
MAKE THEIR WAY INLAND FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY MORNING.

RAIN CONTINUING AT TIMES ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE MODELS INDICATING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A SHORT BREAK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE INTERIOR BEFORE THE RAINFALL RATES PICK UP AGAIN
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. 00Z MODEL RUNS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE PUSHING THE TIMING BACK INTO THURSDAY EVENING. WILL WAIT FOR
ANOTHER MODEL RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING CUMULATIVE RAINS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
TO BE IN THE 0.75 TO 1.50 INCH RANGE OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS...
1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES AT THE COAST...AND 1.5 TO 3.0 INCHES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. FELTON

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
REACH THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL PROBABLY BE A MAINLY DRY DAY IN
BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. A FAIRLY WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRING A
LITTLE MORE RAIN MONDAY. AFTER THAT...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY.
THE GFS BUILD AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY FOR A DRY DAY.
THE ECMWF DROPS A COLD UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD WITH A LEAST SOME
SHOWERS. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE EXCEPTION IS THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF
THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE NEAR OSO WHERE A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THIS RIVER AS A
RESULT OF WATER POOLED BEHIND THE DEBRIS DAM THAT PARTIALLY BLOCKS
THE RIVER.

THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH NEAR ARLINGTON AND THE POOL
UPSTREAM OF THE SR 530 SLIDE ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOUT A HALF FOOT
TONIGHT...ANOTHER FOOT OR SO ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN ABOUT TWO FEET
ON THURSDAY. THE RIVER AND POOL LEVELS WILL BEGIN FALLING LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE FALLING FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE AREA.

TOTAL RAINFALL FOR THE SLIDE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE
ON THE ORDER OF TWO INCHES. A QUARTER TO HALF INCH IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...ANOTHER THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR SO WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN ABOUT AN INCH ON THURSDAY.

ADDITIONAL FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE SLIDE AREA LATER SATURDAY AND
MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ESPECIALLY WET OR
HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT BUT THEY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WET.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOIST AT ALL
LEVELS AND STABLE. RAIN AT TIMES.

MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CIGS 3-5K FT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL DETERIORATE TO MOSTLY MVFR CIGS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. VISIBILITY OCCASIONALLY 3-5SM IN STEADIER MODERATE RAIN.
AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY SOME CEILINGS WILL FALL BELOW 2K FT.

KSEA...SOUTHERLY WIND 8-12 KT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN TONIGHT
WITH VFR CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AFTER ABOUT MIDNIGHT. RAIN AT TIMES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY THOUGH SOME RAIN SHADOWING MAY REDUCE
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT WINDS EXPECTED OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND W ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. S/SW WINDS OVER THE INLAND WATERS WILL PUSH 20 KT AT TIMES
BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
MONITORING OBS.

HIGH PRES AND LIGHTER FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONGER FRONT
WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TO MOST OF THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY. GALE FORCE WESTERLIES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRAIT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WINDS EASE FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA. DTM/CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
      STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST AND WEST ENTRANCE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML











000
FXUS66 KPQR 160352
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
848 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
MOST OF NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY
LIFT NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THEN MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND OCCURS LATE IN THE
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THICKENING CLOUDS MASS
NEAR THE COAST. THE AREAS OF THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAS DECREASED
SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS MAY BE AN INDICATION THE WARM
ADVECTION HAS ALREADY REACHED IT PEAK. AT LOWER LEVELS...NWS NETWORK
RADAR SHOWING RAIN JUST NORTH OF TILLAMOOK NORTH TO THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST.  MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SPREADING RAIN
FROM THE NW TO THE SE OVERNIGHT AND THU MORNING.  THE OFFSHORE WARM
FRONT SHIFTS N WED AFTERNOON EASING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NOT
QUITE ENDING ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN FORECAST ZONES.

THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DRIVING IT AND
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS ON TRACK FOR PASSING THROUGH NW OREGON THU.
CATEGORICAL POPS IN LINE FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THU...WITH SHOWERS
FOLLOWING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THU AFTERNOON AS THE
SHORTWAVE CROSSES. THE POST FRONTAL SHOWERS HOWEVER LOOK SHORT LIVED
THU NIGHT AS THE DESTABILIZING COOL POOL ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES E AND
SFC HIGH PRES MOVES IN OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH PRES WITH A FLAT RIDGE
ALOFT SHOULD BRING A DRY DAY FRI.

.LONG TERM...GFS AND ECMWF COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
FEATURES THIS WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT IN WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS AGREED UPON BY MODELS TO MOVE INLAND SAT. GIVEN THE GOOD
AGREEMENT IN MODELS HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FEATURE...AND SO WILL BUMP UP POPS FOR SAT ESP ALONG THE COAST.
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM THU AND THU NIGHT...THE COOL POOL
ALOFT IS DEPICTED TO MOVE PAST QUICKLY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING BACK
IN. WILL DROP POPS OFF BEHIND THE FRONT FAIRLY QUICKLY SAT NIGHT....
AND SO SUN LOOKS LIKE IT IS LIKELY TO BE DRY.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER DAY 5
LEADING TO A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS FOR DAYS 6 AND 7. AS
THE FLOW APPEARS TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...FEEL LIKE FOLLOWING
SOMETHING CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY IS THE WAY TO GO FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING GRADUALLY
LOWERING CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST THIS EVENING...THEN
SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT. CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO COME DOWN THAN
EXPECTED...BUT THE LATEST FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD
MVFR WITH LOCALIZED IFR DEVELOPING AT THE COAST FROM FROM 03Z TO
06...THEN INLAND BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS
GENERAL IDEA. LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW...WITH SOME MINIMAL LIFTING OF CIGS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR APPEARS TO BE INLAND FROM
ABOUT KSLE SOUTH. EXPECT FREQUENT MTNS OBSCURATIONS THROUGH
TOMORROW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPS AFTER 06Z...WITH CIGS FALLING TO MVFR SOMETIME BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z. LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
TOMORROW. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL RAISE TO VFR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT
INTO WED AM. PRES GRADIENT NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...AND LATEST SHORT
TERM FCST MODELS INDICATE THAT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL NOT REACH
MUCH HIGHER THAN 20 KT. SO DECIDED TO CANCEL THE MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS THAT WAS OUT. THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALIZED GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW...BUT DO
NOT THINK THEY WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY THE ADVISORY.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 7 TO 8 FT THROUGH TOMORROW.

AFTER A BIT OF A LULL TOMORROW...A STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES ON THU.
THIS FRONT APPEARS TO BRING BETTER POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING 25
KT...AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WE GET
CLOSER. SEAS SHOULD COME UP A BIT MORE WITH THIS SYSTEM...LIKELY
8 TO 10 FT THU THROUGH FRI. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 AM TO
    9 AM PDT  WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KPQR 160352
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
848 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
MOST OF NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY
LIFT NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THEN MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND OCCURS LATE IN THE
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THICKENING CLOUDS MASS
NEAR THE COAST. THE AREAS OF THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAS DECREASED
SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS MAY BE AN INDICATION THE WARM
ADVECTION HAS ALREADY REACHED IT PEAK. AT LOWER LEVELS...NWS NETWORK
RADAR SHOWING RAIN JUST NORTH OF TILLAMOOK NORTH TO THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST.  MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SPREADING RAIN
FROM THE NW TO THE SE OVERNIGHT AND THU MORNING.  THE OFFSHORE WARM
FRONT SHIFTS N WED AFTERNOON EASING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NOT
QUITE ENDING ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN FORECAST ZONES.

THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DRIVING IT AND
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS ON TRACK FOR PASSING THROUGH NW OREGON THU.
CATEGORICAL POPS IN LINE FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THU...WITH SHOWERS
FOLLOWING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THU AFTERNOON AS THE
SHORTWAVE CROSSES. THE POST FRONTAL SHOWERS HOWEVER LOOK SHORT LIVED
THU NIGHT AS THE DESTABILIZING COOL POOL ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES E AND
SFC HIGH PRES MOVES IN OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH PRES WITH A FLAT RIDGE
ALOFT SHOULD BRING A DRY DAY FRI.

.LONG TERM...GFS AND ECMWF COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
FEATURES THIS WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT IN WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS AGREED UPON BY MODELS TO MOVE INLAND SAT. GIVEN THE GOOD
AGREEMENT IN MODELS HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FEATURE...AND SO WILL BUMP UP POPS FOR SAT ESP ALONG THE COAST.
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM THU AND THU NIGHT...THE COOL POOL
ALOFT IS DEPICTED TO MOVE PAST QUICKLY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING BACK
IN. WILL DROP POPS OFF BEHIND THE FRONT FAIRLY QUICKLY SAT NIGHT....
AND SO SUN LOOKS LIKE IT IS LIKELY TO BE DRY.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER DAY 5
LEADING TO A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS FOR DAYS 6 AND 7. AS
THE FLOW APPEARS TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...FEEL LIKE FOLLOWING
SOMETHING CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY IS THE WAY TO GO FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING GRADUALLY
LOWERING CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST THIS EVENING...THEN
SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT. CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO COME DOWN THAN
EXPECTED...BUT THE LATEST FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD
MVFR WITH LOCALIZED IFR DEVELOPING AT THE COAST FROM FROM 03Z TO
06...THEN INLAND BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS
GENERAL IDEA. LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW...WITH SOME MINIMAL LIFTING OF CIGS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR APPEARS TO BE INLAND FROM
ABOUT KSLE SOUTH. EXPECT FREQUENT MTNS OBSCURATIONS THROUGH
TOMORROW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPS AFTER 06Z...WITH CIGS FALLING TO MVFR SOMETIME BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z. LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
TOMORROW. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL RAISE TO VFR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT
INTO WED AM. PRES GRADIENT NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...AND LATEST SHORT
TERM FCST MODELS INDICATE THAT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL NOT REACH
MUCH HIGHER THAN 20 KT. SO DECIDED TO CANCEL THE MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS THAT WAS OUT. THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALIZED GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW...BUT DO
NOT THINK THEY WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY THE ADVISORY.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 7 TO 8 FT THROUGH TOMORROW.

AFTER A BIT OF A LULL TOMORROW...A STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES ON THU.
THIS FRONT APPEARS TO BRING BETTER POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING 25
KT...AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WE GET
CLOSER. SEAS SHOULD COME UP A BIT MORE WITH THIS SYSTEM...LIKELY
8 TO 10 FT THU THROUGH FRI. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 AM TO
    9 AM PDT  WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KOTX 160330
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
829 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy with light showers will decrease early evening across the
Inland Northwest. Another weather system will arrive by early
Wednesday morning and bring some light accumulating snow in the
mountains. The best chance for widespread rain is expected
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. At this time the Easter
Weekend looks to be mild and dry.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Quick update to remove most of the evening shower wording.
Isolated showers remain across portions of Shoshone and eastern
Kootenai, Benewah and Latah counties. They will be ending in the
next hour or so. Also increased cloud cover overnight. High clouds
over the area now will thicken and lower overnight ahead of the
next weather disturbance to move into the area. Tweaked slightly
the chance of precip overnight. Models agree that any precip that
falls in the overnight hours should be restricted to the Moses
Lake area westward. So took out precip chances across the Blue
Mtns and Camas Prairie /Nisbet



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Light showers through 03z with the highest
concentration over the higher terrain of ID. Gusty westerly winds
will prevail with speeds of 10-20kts and gusts to 30kts. The
strongest winds will stretch from KEAT-KMWH-KPUW_KLWS. Wind gusts
and convective clouds will decrease after 03z. The next weather
system is already spreading high clouds, which will thicken and
lower through the night. A broad overcast deck and a chance of
light showers will start aft 08z across the central part of WA and
spread east through the early morning hours. Rain showers will be
a good bet across most of eastern WA and north ID aft 18z.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        37  54  40  56  39  57 /  10  50  20  60  90  40
Coeur d`Alene  34  53  38  56  40  56 /   0  50  40  60  90  50
Pullman        35  53  41  57  40  54 /   0  60  20  50  90  30
Lewiston       41  59  41  64  43  60 /   0  60  20  30  80  20
Colville       35  59  37  61  37  62 /   0  40  30  80  80  30
Sandpoint      34  53  35  55  42  55 /  10  50  30  70  90  60
Kellogg        34  50  37  55  40  54 /  20  60  40  40  90  60
Moses Lake     42  63  46  63  39  65 /  20  20  10  60  40  10
Wenatchee      46  63  43  63  40  63 /  20  20  20  50  20  10
Omak           37  61  38  62  36  63 /  10  20  20  60  30  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&





000
FXUS66 KOTX 160028
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
527 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy with light showers will decrease early evening across the
Inland Northwest. Another weather system will arrive by early
Wednesday morning and bring some light accumulating snow in the
mountains. The best chance for widespread rain is expected
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. At this time the Easter
Weekend looks to be mild and dry.


&&

.DISCUSSION... Tonight and Wednesday: A swift northwest flow will
be over the Inland NW during the next 24-36 hours as the upper
level jet lies just to the south of the region. As one shortwave
exits the region, another will be poised to move into the region
late tonight. Windy conditions will persist until early evening,
then loss of daytime heating and mixing will subside and surface
pressure gradients relax. Obs show solid 20-30 mph winds with
gusts 35-40 mph, but can expect local gusts to 45 mph in exposed
spots. Several web cams from Ephrata to Ritzville show some haze
on the horizon due to blowing dust and anticipate this to continue
through early evening. Popcorn showers will drift from the
northwest from the northern mountains, across the Spokane/Coeur
d`alene area to the Palouse and ID panhandle mountains. A few
intense showers may produce some lightning or graupel, but brief
showers will be the main threat. The convection will diminish
through the evening hours. Satellite shows the next weather system
coupled with a good moisture plume, spreading high clouds across
the Cascades by early evening, and then across the entire area
during the late night hours. Isentropic lift seen between 290-295k
will be enough to generate some light precipitation by early
Wednesday morning. With snow levels just above 3k ft in the
Cascades, may see light snow at the passes early Wednesday
morning. As the moisture band reaches north Idaho, may see the
added lift from orographics lead to a better chance of
precipitations from extreme eastern Washington and across north
Idaho. Surface winds will be lighter and will back to the
south/southwest. Anticipate widespread cloudiness through
Wednesday under this weak warm air advection pattern, but
temperatures will be running a little cooler than experienced
today. /rfox.

Wednesday night through Friday night: A strong and moist
frontal system will push through the region delivering the next
round of precipitation and gusty winds. Models are in relatively
good agreement regarding the strength and timing of this event
which is leading to above normal confidence at this time. Any
precipitation will be very light Wednesday night then increase in
intensity through the day Thursday...becoming moderate to heavy at
times with the cold front passage Thursday night into early Friday
morning. Convective showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm
will be possible Friday morning and early afternoon mainly
focusing across the ID Panhandle and Northeastern WA before giving
way to drier conditions region-wide Friday evening.

The disturbance that will be passing through is still well off
the coast near the Aleutian Islands which suggests that some
changes remain a possibility. Satellite data reveals a rich plume
of subtropical moisture ahead of this feature which will be
transported inland. GFS progs PWATS to increase near 0.80" of an
inch over Spokane. This combination of moisture coupled with deep
forcing along a surface to 500mb vertically stacked cold front
indicates to me that all locations will receive precipitation from
this event. Most uncertainty lies within the Wednesday night
through Thursday morning time-frame when the region is in the warm
sector. Some weak instability will be in place but most
precipitation processes will be isentropically driven. There is
some question whether the sub 700mb layer will fully saturate
allowing appreciable rainfall to reach the valley floors. Model
consensus favors areas along and north of Hwy 2 to receive light
rainfall Wednesday night with amounts generally under a tenth of
an inch. Rainfall will become steady and slowly intensify through
the day on Thursday across most locations away from the Camas
Prairie as deeper moisture is transported inland. The most intense
precipitation will accompany the frontal passage Thursday evening
into the early night. Widespread precipitation amounts near a
quarter of an inch are expected across most of the ID Panhandle,
eastern third of WA, and Cascade Crest (higher amounts likely).
Storm total amounts closer to a tenth of an inch give or take a
few hundredths are expected in the lee of the Cascades. Snow
levels will be above pass levels ahead of the cold front but will
be lowering near 3500-4000` within the post-frontal air mass
bringing the potential for a few snow showers to Stevens, Blewett,
Lookout, and Sherman Passes.

We will also be monitoring the potential for isolated
thunderstorms early Friday. Model soundings are favorable for post
frontal showers through midday then the air mass will begin
stabilizing as the boundary layer dries out and 500mb temperatures
warm by peak heating in the afternoon. If there are enough sun
breaks in the morning, we cannot rule out a few rumbles of
thunder, small hail, and graupel with the threat ending by 3PM.
Breezy winds will also accompany the system. Look for breezy
southerly winds developing on Thursday swinging around to the
west/southwest Thursday night with the frontal passage and
becoming gusty through early afternoon on Friday. The nocturnal
frontal passage will lower the threat for strong winds but several
parameters including strong cold advection, strengthening surface
low over Alberta (tight pressure gradient), and depth of the cold
front, we generally went above guidance in the wind fields and
will closely monitoring trends as the event nears for potential
stronger gusts. /sb

Saturday through Tuesday: A ridging pattern will be in place for
most of Saturday. This will lead to a quiet weather pattern with
very little precip. The ridge is expected to breakdown Saturday
evening as the next Low system moves along the coast. The models
placement of this Low does not have high agreement. The GFS has
the Low located in Southern California and the ECMWF has the Low
positioned off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Depending on
the how the models align in the next few runs, Sunday through the
Tuesday could be a few isolated showers across the Inland
Northwest or a chance for continuous rain for wide swaths of the
Inland Northwest, especially for the Cascades and Idaho
Panhandle. With the differences between the models, the forecast
keeps Saturday and most of Sunday dry with the beginning of next
containing chances of precipitation for the Inland Northwest.
Southwest flow and cloudy skies will keep temperatures consistent
for this period and three to six degrees above the season normals.
/JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Light showers through 03z with the highest
concentration over the higher terrain of ID. Gusty westerly winds
will prevail with speeds of 10-20kts and gusts to 30kts. The
strongest winds will stretch from KEAT-KMWH-KPUW_KLWS. Wind gusts
and convective clouds will decrease after 03z. The next weather
system is already spreading high clouds, which will thicken and
lower through the night. A broad overcast deck and a chance of
light showers will start aft 08z across the central part of WA and
spread east through the early morning hours. Rain showers will be
a good bet across most of eastern WA and north ID aft 18z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        37  54  40  56  39  57 /  10  50  20  60  90  40
Coeur d`Alene  34  53  38  56  40  56 /  20  50  40  60  90  50
Pullman        35  53  41  57  40  54 /  10  60  20  50  90  30
Lewiston       41  59  41  64  43  60 /  10  60  20  30  80  20
Colville       35  59  37  61  37  62 /  10  40  30  80  80  30
Sandpoint      34  53  35  55  42  55 /  20  50  30  70  90  60
Kellogg        34  50  37  55  40  54 /  30  60  40  40  90  60
Moses Lake     42  63  46  63  39  65 /  20  20  10  60  40  10
Wenatchee      46  63  43  63  40  63 /  20  20  20  50  20  10
Omak           37  61  38  62  36  63 /  10  20  20  60  30  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&





000
FXUS66 KSEW 152144
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
245 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN
STALL OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY FOR RAIN AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY. DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST
ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE NEXT FRONT WILL
ARRIVE LATER SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WARM FRONT WILL STALL OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON...
BRINGING RAIN AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY DRY PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE LOOKS LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

THE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD IS LOOKING PRETTY WET. STEADY
RAIN FOR 48 HOURS STRAIGHT HOURS IS PRETTY UNLIKELY AND THERE WILL
CERTAINLY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE RAIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS RAIN AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY. HEAVY RAIN
IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT THE CUMULATIVE RAINS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 0.75 TO 1.50 INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS...
1-2 INCHES AT THE COAST...AND 1.5 TO 3.0 INCHES FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REACH THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL
PROBABLY BE A MAINLY DRY DAY IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. A FAIRLY
WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRING A LITTLE MORE RAIN MONDAY. AFTER
THAT...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE GFS BUILD AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY FOR A DRY DAY. THE ECMWF DROPS A COLD UPPER
TROUGH OVERHEAD WITH A LEAST SOME SHOWERS. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE EXCEPTION IS THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF
THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE NEAR OSO WHERE A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THIS RIVER AS A
RESULT OF WATER POOLED BEHIND THE DEBRIS DAM THAT PARTIALLY BLOCKS
THE RIVER.

THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH NEAR ARLINGTON AND THE POOL
UPSTREAM OF THE SR 530 SLIDE ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOUT A HALF FOOT
TONIGHT...ANOTHER FOOT OR SO ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN ABOUT TWO FEET
ON THURSDAY. THE RIVER AND POOL LEVELS WILL BEGIN FALLING LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE FALLING FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE AREA.

TOTAL RAINFALL FOR THE SLIDE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE
ON THE ORDER OF TWO INCHES. A QUARTER TO HALF INCH IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...ANOTHER THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR SO WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN ABOUT AN INCH ON THURSDAY.

ADDITIONAL FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE SLIDE AREA LATER SATURDAY AND
MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ESPECIALLY WET OR
HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT BUT THEY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WET.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. AIR MASS IS MOIST AND
STABLE WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. RAIN ON THE COAST AT 22Z WILL SPREAD
INLAND BY 02Z. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS WILL FALL TO MVFR 2-3K FT BY 06Z. VISIBILITY
OCCASIONALLY 3-5SM IN RAIN. AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY SOME CEILINGS WILL
FALL BELOW 2K FT.

KSEA...SOUTHERLY WIND 8-12 KT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN TONIGHT
WITH MVFR CEILINGS DOMINANT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS SEEMS
LIKELY TO BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS TO THE COAST AND
WEST ENTRANCE AND HAVE HOISTED ADVISORIES FOR THOSE ZONES THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 20 KT ELSEWHERE BUT
AS WITH ANY FRONT THE SOUTHERLIES COULD SURPRISE AND GO ABOVE 20 KT
SOME TIME TONIGHT.

HIGH PRES AND LIGHTER FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER FRONT WILL BRING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TO MOST OF THE WATERS ON THURSDAY. LATEST
GFS INDICATES GALE FORCE WESTERLIES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRAIT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT LATEST MM5 4KM RUNS SUGGEST LOWER
WINDS. WINDS EASE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
      STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST AND WEST ENTRANCE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KOTX 152138
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
237 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy with light showers will decrease early evening across the
Inland Northwest. Another weather system will arrive by early
Wednesday morning and bring some light accumulating snow in the
mountains. The best chance for widespread rain is expected
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. At this time the Easter
Weekend looks to be mild and dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Wednesday: A swift northwest flow will be over the
Inland NW during the next 24-36 hours as the upper level jet lies
just to the south of the region. As one shortwave exits the
region, another will be poised to move into the region late
tonight. Windy conditions will persist until early evening, then
loss of daytime heating and mixing will subside and surface
pressure gradients relax. Obs show solid 20-30 mph winds with
gusts 35-40 mph, but can expect local gusts to 45 mph in exposed
spots. Several web cams from Ephrata to Ritzville show some haze
on the horizon due to blowing dust and anticipate this to continue
through early evening. Popcorn showers will drift from the
northwest from the northern mountains, across the Spokane/Coeur
d`alene area to the Palouse and ID panhandle mountains. A few
intense showers may produce some lightning or graupel, but brief
showers will be the main threat. The convection will diminish
through the evening hours. Satellite shows the next weather system
coupled with a good moisture plume, spreading high clouds across
the Cascades by early evening, and then across the entire area
during the late night hours. Isentropic lift seen between 290-295k
will be enough to generate some light precipitation by early
Wednesday morning. With snow levels just above 3k ft in the
Cascades, may see light snow at the passes early Wednesday
morning. As the moisture band reaches north Idaho, may see the
added lift from orographics lead to a better chance of
precipitations from extreme eastern Washington and across north
Idaho. Surface winds will be lighter and will back to the
south/southwest. Anticipate widespread cloudiness through
Wednesday under this weak warm air advection pattern, but
temperatures will be running a little cooler than experienced
today. /rfox.

Wednesday night through Friday night: A strong and moist
frontal system will push through the region delivering the next
round of precipitation and gusty winds. Models are in relatively
good agreement regarding the strength and timing of this event
which is leading to above normal confidence at this time. Any
precipitation will be very light Wednesday night then increase in
intensity through the day Thursday...becoming moderate to heavy at
times with the cold front passage Thursday night into early Friday
morning. Convective showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm
will be possible Friday morning and early afternoon mainly
focusing across the ID Panhandle and Northeastern WA before giving
way to drier conditions region-wide Friday evening.

The disturbance that will be passing through is still well off
the coast near the Aleutian Islands which suggests that some
changes remain a possibility. Satellite data reveals a rich plume
of subtropical moisture ahead of this feature which will be
transported inland. GFS progs PWATS to increase near 0.80" of an
inch over Spokane. This combination of moisture coupled with deep
forcing along a surface to 500mb vertically stacked cold front
indicates to me that all locations will receive precipitation from
this event. Most uncertainty lies within the Wednesday night
through Thursday morning time-frame when the region is in the warm
sector. Some weak instability will be in place but most
precipitation processes will be isentropically driven. There is
some question whether the sub 700mb layer will fully saturate
allowing appreciable rainfall to reach the valley floors. Model
consensus favors areas along and north of Hwy 2 to receive light
rainfall Wednesday night with amounts generally under a tenth of
an inch. Rainfall will become steady and slowly intensify through
the day on Thursday across most locations away from the Camas
Prairie as deeper moisture is transported inland. The most intense
precipitation will accompany the frontal passage Thursday evening
into the early night. Widespread precipitation amounts near a
quarter of an inch are expected across most of the ID Panhandle,
eastern third of WA, and Cascade Crest (higher amounts likely).
Storm total amounts closer to a tenth of an inch give or take a
few hundredths are expected in the lee of the Cascades. Snow
levels will be above pass levels ahead of the cold front but will
be lowering near 3500-4000` within the post-frontal air mass
bringing the potential for a few snow showers to Stevens, Blewett,
Lookout, and Sherman Passes.

We will also be monitoring the potential for isolated
thunderstorms early Friday. Model soundings are favorable for post
frontal showers through midday then the air mass will begin
stabilizing as the boundary layer dries out and 500mb temperatures
warm by peak heating in the afternoon. If there are enough sun
breaks in the morning, we cannot rule out a few rumbles of
thunder, small hail, and graupel with the threat ending by 3PM.
Breezy winds will also accompany the system. Look for breezy
southerly winds developing on Thursday swinging around to the
west/southwest Thursday night with the frontal passage and
becoming gusty through early afternoon on Friday. The nocturnal
frontal passage will lower the threat for strong winds but several
parameters including strong cold advection, strengthening surface
low over Alberta (tight pressure gradient), and depth of the cold
front, we generally went above guidance in the wind fields and
will closely monitoring trends as the event nears for potential
stronger gusts. /sb

Saturday through Tuesday: A ridging pattern will be in place for
most of Saturday. This will lead to a quiet weather pattern with
very little precip. The ridge is expected to breakdown Saturday
evening as the next Low system moves along the coast. The models
placement of this Low does not have high agreement. The GFS has
the Low located in Southern California and the ECMWF has the Low
positioned off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Depending on
the how the models align in the next few runs, Sunday through the
Tuesday could be a few isolated showers across the Inland
Northwest or a chance for continuous rain for wide swaths of the
Inland Northwest, especially for the Cascades and Idaho
Panhandle. With the differences between the models, the forecast
keeps Saturday and most of Sunday dry with the beginning of next
containing chances of precipitation for the Inland Northwest.
Southwest flow and cloudy skies will keep temperatures consistent
for this period and three to six degrees above the season normals.
/JDC


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Skies cleared quickly behind the mid level front, but
now convective clouds are blooming and should create a mid level
broken deck east of KOMK-KLWS with bases 050-060. Anticipate
light showers through 03z with the highest concentration over the
higher terrain. Gusty westerly winds will prevail with speeds of
15-25kts and gusts to 30kts. The strongest winds look to be across
the Palouse region near KPUW. Gusts and covective clouds will
decrease after 03z with partial clearing. The next weather system
will spread in mid level clouds after 08z, following by a broad
overcast deck and a chance of light showers from KEAT-KMWH-KGEG
before 18z./rfox.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        37  54  40  56  39  57 /  10  50  20  60  90  40
Coeur d`Alene  34  53  38  56  40  56 /  20  50  40  60  90  50
Pullman        35  53  41  57  40  54 /  10  60  20  50  90  30
Lewiston       41  59  41  64  43  60 /  10  60  20  30  80  20
Colville       35  59  37  61  37  62 /  10  40  30  80  80  30
Sandpoint      34  53  35  55  42  55 /  20  50  30  70  90  60
Kellogg        34  50  37  55  40  54 /  30  60  40  40  90  60
Moses Lake     42  63  46  63  39  65 /  20  20  10  60  40  10
Wenatchee      46  63  43  63  40  63 /  20  20  20  50  20  10
Omak           37  61  38  62  36  63 /  10  20  20  60  30  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 152056
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
200 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WA AND OR
TODAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ACROSS SW WA AND EXTREME NW
OR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY LIFT NORTH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND OCCURS LATE IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THICKER CLOUD MASS OFF THE WA AND N OREGON COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WAS SLOWLY ADVANCING E. MODELS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING MODEST BUT DEEP MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT AS
DEEP MOISTURE MOVES IN TONIGHT. BEST LIFT IS DEPICTED AROUND THE
290K ISENTROPE...AND SPREADS S OVERNIGHT. GIVEN MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS IN THE PAST FEW RUNS...WILL BUMP UP POPS
MORE FOR TONIGHT AND WED GOING TO CATEGORICAL POPS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WED FOR ALL BUT THE FAR S PART OF THE AREA. BEST OVERRUNNING
OF THE OFFSHORE WARM FRONT SHIFTS N WED AFTERNOON...WITH BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTING N TOWARDS WA. WILL KEEP POPS LIKELY ACROSS
SW WA FOR WED NIGHT...BUT EXPECT A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
HEADING S THROUGH WESTERN OREGON.

COLD FRONT WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DRIVING IT AND DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR PASSING THROUGH NW OREGON THU. CATEGORICAL POPS
IN LINE FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THU...WITH SHOWERS FOLLOWING
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THU AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES. THE
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS HOWEVER LOOK SHORT LIVED THU NIGHT AS THE
DESTABILIZING COOL POOL ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES E AND SFC HIGH PRES
MOVES IN OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH PRES WITH A FLAT RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD
BRING A DRY DAY FRI.

.LONG TERM...GFS AND ECMWF COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
FEATURES THIS WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT IN WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS AGREED UPON BY MODELS TO MOVE INLAND SAT. GIVEN THE GOOD
AGREEMENT IN MODELS HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FEATURE...AND SO WILL BUMP UP POPS FOR SAT ESP ALONG THE COAST.
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM THU AND THU NIGHT...THE COOL POOL
ALOFT IS DEPICTED TO MOVE PAST QUICKLY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING BACK
IN. WILL DROP POPS OFF BEHIND THE FRONT FAIRLY QUICKLY SAT NIGHT....
AND SO SUN LOOKS LIKE IT IS LIKELY TO BE DRY.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER DAY 5
LEADING TO A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS FOR DAYS 6 AND 7. AS
THE FLOW APPEARS TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...FEEL LIKE FOLLOWING
SOMETHING CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY IS THE WAY TO GO FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING CLOUDS INTO
THE REGION...WITH INCREASING MVFR ALONG THE COAST AFTER 00Z. STILL
LOOKS AS THOUGH RAIN WILL ARRIVE ON COAST 00Z TO 02Z...AND PUSHES
INLAND TO CASCADES BY 06Z. MVFR AND OCCASIONAL RAIN CONTINUES
TONIGHT...WITH FREQUENT MTNS OBSCURATIONS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CLOUDS GEL TOGETHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO EVENING AS FRONT APPROACHES. LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS 02Z TO
04Z...WITH CIGS FALLING TO MVFR 04Z TO 06Z. LITTLE CHANGE
OVERNIGHT...WITH PERSISTENT MVFR WILL INTO WED AM. ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...NEXT FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND
WED AM. PRES GRADIENT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT LOOKS TO BE
ENOUGH TO GET SW TO W WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES. HAVE PUT
UP SMALL CRAFT ADVSIORY FOR SUCH WINDS FOR TONIGHT. SEAS RUNNING
AT 7 TO 9 FT...HIGHEST THIS EVENING.

BRIEF BREAK LATER WED...BUT NEXT STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES ON THU.
AGAIN...SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING 25 KT AGAIN. THU AM. SEAS UP
A BIT MORE...LIKELY 8 TO 10 FT THU THROUGH FRI.

BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR SAT AND SUN...BUT ANOTHER FRONT
ARRIVES TO START NEXT WEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER.       ROCKEY.
&&

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR TONIGHT INTO WED AM
         ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
         UNTIL 8 PM TODAY...AND AGAIN 4 AM TO 9 AM WED.

&&


$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KPQR 152056
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
200 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WA AND OR
TODAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ACROSS SW WA AND EXTREME NW
OR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY LIFT NORTH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND OCCURS LATE IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THICKER CLOUD MASS OFF THE WA AND N OREGON COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WAS SLOWLY ADVANCING E. MODELS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING MODEST BUT DEEP MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT AS
DEEP MOISTURE MOVES IN TONIGHT. BEST LIFT IS DEPICTED AROUND THE
290K ISENTROPE...AND SPREADS S OVERNIGHT. GIVEN MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS IN THE PAST FEW RUNS...WILL BUMP UP POPS
MORE FOR TONIGHT AND WED GOING TO CATEGORICAL POPS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WED FOR ALL BUT THE FAR S PART OF THE AREA. BEST OVERRUNNING
OF THE OFFSHORE WARM FRONT SHIFTS N WED AFTERNOON...WITH BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTING N TOWARDS WA. WILL KEEP POPS LIKELY ACROSS
SW WA FOR WED NIGHT...BUT EXPECT A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
HEADING S THROUGH WESTERN OREGON.

COLD FRONT WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DRIVING IT AND DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR PASSING THROUGH NW OREGON THU. CATEGORICAL POPS
IN LINE FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THU...WITH SHOWERS FOLLOWING
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THU AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES. THE
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS HOWEVER LOOK SHORT LIVED THU NIGHT AS THE
DESTABILIZING COOL POOL ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES E AND SFC HIGH PRES
MOVES IN OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH PRES WITH A FLAT RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD
BRING A DRY DAY FRI.

.LONG TERM...GFS AND ECMWF COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
FEATURES THIS WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT IN WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS AGREED UPON BY MODELS TO MOVE INLAND SAT. GIVEN THE GOOD
AGREEMENT IN MODELS HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FEATURE...AND SO WILL BUMP UP POPS FOR SAT ESP ALONG THE COAST.
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM THU AND THU NIGHT...THE COOL POOL
ALOFT IS DEPICTED TO MOVE PAST QUICKLY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING BACK
IN. WILL DROP POPS OFF BEHIND THE FRONT FAIRLY QUICKLY SAT NIGHT....
AND SO SUN LOOKS LIKE IT IS LIKELY TO BE DRY.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER DAY 5
LEADING TO A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS FOR DAYS 6 AND 7. AS
THE FLOW APPEARS TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...FEEL LIKE FOLLOWING
SOMETHING CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY IS THE WAY TO GO FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING CLOUDS INTO
THE REGION...WITH INCREASING MVFR ALONG THE COAST AFTER 00Z. STILL
LOOKS AS THOUGH RAIN WILL ARRIVE ON COAST 00Z TO 02Z...AND PUSHES
INLAND TO CASCADES BY 06Z. MVFR AND OCCASIONAL RAIN CONTINUES
TONIGHT...WITH FREQUENT MTNS OBSCURATIONS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CLOUDS GEL TOGETHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO EVENING AS FRONT APPROACHES. LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS 02Z TO
04Z...WITH CIGS FALLING TO MVFR 04Z TO 06Z. LITTLE CHANGE
OVERNIGHT...WITH PERSISTENT MVFR WILL INTO WED AM. ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...NEXT FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND
WED AM. PRES GRADIENT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT LOOKS TO BE
ENOUGH TO GET SW TO W WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES. HAVE PUT
UP SMALL CRAFT ADVSIORY FOR SUCH WINDS FOR TONIGHT. SEAS RUNNING
AT 7 TO 9 FT...HIGHEST THIS EVENING.

BRIEF BREAK LATER WED...BUT NEXT STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES ON THU.
AGAIN...SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING 25 KT AGAIN. THU AM. SEAS UP
A BIT MORE...LIKELY 8 TO 10 FT THU THROUGH FRI.

BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR SAT AND SUN...BUT ANOTHER FRONT
ARRIVES TO START NEXT WEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER.       ROCKEY.
&&

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR TONIGHT INTO WED AM
         ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
         UNTIL 8 PM TODAY...AND AGAIN 4 AM TO 9 AM WED.

&&


$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KPQR 152056
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
200 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WA AND OR
TODAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ACROSS SW WA AND EXTREME NW
OR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY LIFT NORTH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND OCCURS LATE IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THICKER CLOUD MASS OFF THE WA AND N OREGON COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WAS SLOWLY ADVANCING E. MODELS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING MODEST BUT DEEP MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT AS
DEEP MOISTURE MOVES IN TONIGHT. BEST LIFT IS DEPICTED AROUND THE
290K ISENTROPE...AND SPREADS S OVERNIGHT. GIVEN MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS IN THE PAST FEW RUNS...WILL BUMP UP POPS
MORE FOR TONIGHT AND WED GOING TO CATEGORICAL POPS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WED FOR ALL BUT THE FAR S PART OF THE AREA. BEST OVERRUNNING
OF THE OFFSHORE WARM FRONT SHIFTS N WED AFTERNOON...WITH BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTING N TOWARDS WA. WILL KEEP POPS LIKELY ACROSS
SW WA FOR WED NIGHT...BUT EXPECT A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
HEADING S THROUGH WESTERN OREGON.

COLD FRONT WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DRIVING IT AND DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR PASSING THROUGH NW OREGON THU. CATEGORICAL POPS
IN LINE FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THU...WITH SHOWERS FOLLOWING
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THU AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES. THE
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS HOWEVER LOOK SHORT LIVED THU NIGHT AS THE
DESTABILIZING COOL POOL ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES E AND SFC HIGH PRES
MOVES IN OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH PRES WITH A FLAT RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD
BRING A DRY DAY FRI.

.LONG TERM...GFS AND ECMWF COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
FEATURES THIS WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT IN WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS AGREED UPON BY MODELS TO MOVE INLAND SAT. GIVEN THE GOOD
AGREEMENT IN MODELS HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FEATURE...AND SO WILL BUMP UP POPS FOR SAT ESP ALONG THE COAST.
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM THU AND THU NIGHT...THE COOL POOL
ALOFT IS DEPICTED TO MOVE PAST QUICKLY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING BACK
IN. WILL DROP POPS OFF BEHIND THE FRONT FAIRLY QUICKLY SAT NIGHT....
AND SO SUN LOOKS LIKE IT IS LIKELY TO BE DRY.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER DAY 5
LEADING TO A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS FOR DAYS 6 AND 7. AS
THE FLOW APPEARS TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...FEEL LIKE FOLLOWING
SOMETHING CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY IS THE WAY TO GO FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING CLOUDS INTO
THE REGION...WITH INCREASING MVFR ALONG THE COAST AFTER 00Z. STILL
LOOKS AS THOUGH RAIN WILL ARRIVE ON COAST 00Z TO 02Z...AND PUSHES
INLAND TO CASCADES BY 06Z. MVFR AND OCCASIONAL RAIN CONTINUES
TONIGHT...WITH FREQUENT MTNS OBSCURATIONS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CLOUDS GEL TOGETHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO EVENING AS FRONT APPROACHES. LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS 02Z TO
04Z...WITH CIGS FALLING TO MVFR 04Z TO 06Z. LITTLE CHANGE
OVERNIGHT...WITH PERSISTENT MVFR WILL INTO WED AM. ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...NEXT FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND
WED AM. PRES GRADIENT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT LOOKS TO BE
ENOUGH TO GET SW TO W WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES. HAVE PUT
UP SMALL CRAFT ADVSIORY FOR SUCH WINDS FOR TONIGHT. SEAS RUNNING
AT 7 TO 9 FT...HIGHEST THIS EVENING.

BRIEF BREAK LATER WED...BUT NEXT STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES ON THU.
AGAIN...SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING 25 KT AGAIN. THU AM. SEAS UP
A BIT MORE...LIKELY 8 TO 10 FT THU THROUGH FRI.

BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR SAT AND SUN...BUT ANOTHER FRONT
ARRIVES TO START NEXT WEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER.       ROCKEY.
&&

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR TONIGHT INTO WED AM
         ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
         UNTIL 8 PM TODAY...AND AGAIN 4 AM TO 9 AM WED.

&&


$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KPQR 152056
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
200 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WA AND OR
TODAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ACROSS SW WA AND EXTREME NW
OR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY LIFT NORTH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND OCCURS LATE IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THICKER CLOUD MASS OFF THE WA AND N OREGON COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WAS SLOWLY ADVANCING E. MODELS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING MODEST BUT DEEP MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT AS
DEEP MOISTURE MOVES IN TONIGHT. BEST LIFT IS DEPICTED AROUND THE
290K ISENTROPE...AND SPREADS S OVERNIGHT. GIVEN MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS IN THE PAST FEW RUNS...WILL BUMP UP POPS
MORE FOR TONIGHT AND WED GOING TO CATEGORICAL POPS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WED FOR ALL BUT THE FAR S PART OF THE AREA. BEST OVERRUNNING
OF THE OFFSHORE WARM FRONT SHIFTS N WED AFTERNOON...WITH BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTING N TOWARDS WA. WILL KEEP POPS LIKELY ACROSS
SW WA FOR WED NIGHT...BUT EXPECT A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
HEADING S THROUGH WESTERN OREGON.

COLD FRONT WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DRIVING IT AND DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR PASSING THROUGH NW OREGON THU. CATEGORICAL POPS
IN LINE FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THU...WITH SHOWERS FOLLOWING
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THU AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES. THE
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS HOWEVER LOOK SHORT LIVED THU NIGHT AS THE
DESTABILIZING COOL POOL ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES E AND SFC HIGH PRES
MOVES IN OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH PRES WITH A FLAT RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD
BRING A DRY DAY FRI.

.LONG TERM...GFS AND ECMWF COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
FEATURES THIS WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT IN WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS AGREED UPON BY MODELS TO MOVE INLAND SAT. GIVEN THE GOOD
AGREEMENT IN MODELS HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FEATURE...AND SO WILL BUMP UP POPS FOR SAT ESP ALONG THE COAST.
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM THU AND THU NIGHT...THE COOL POOL
ALOFT IS DEPICTED TO MOVE PAST QUICKLY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING BACK
IN. WILL DROP POPS OFF BEHIND THE FRONT FAIRLY QUICKLY SAT NIGHT....
AND SO SUN LOOKS LIKE IT IS LIKELY TO BE DRY.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER DAY 5
LEADING TO A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS FOR DAYS 6 AND 7. AS
THE FLOW APPEARS TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...FEEL LIKE FOLLOWING
SOMETHING CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY IS THE WAY TO GO FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING CLOUDS INTO
THE REGION...WITH INCREASING MVFR ALONG THE COAST AFTER 00Z. STILL
LOOKS AS THOUGH RAIN WILL ARRIVE ON COAST 00Z TO 02Z...AND PUSHES
INLAND TO CASCADES BY 06Z. MVFR AND OCCASIONAL RAIN CONTINUES
TONIGHT...WITH FREQUENT MTNS OBSCURATIONS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CLOUDS GEL TOGETHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO EVENING AS FRONT APPROACHES. LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS 02Z TO
04Z...WITH CIGS FALLING TO MVFR 04Z TO 06Z. LITTLE CHANGE
OVERNIGHT...WITH PERSISTENT MVFR WILL INTO WED AM. ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...NEXT FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND
WED AM. PRES GRADIENT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT LOOKS TO BE
ENOUGH TO GET SW TO W WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES. HAVE PUT
UP SMALL CRAFT ADVSIORY FOR SUCH WINDS FOR TONIGHT. SEAS RUNNING
AT 7 TO 9 FT...HIGHEST THIS EVENING.

BRIEF BREAK LATER WED...BUT NEXT STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES ON THU.
AGAIN...SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING 25 KT AGAIN. THU AM. SEAS UP
A BIT MORE...LIKELY 8 TO 10 FT THU THROUGH FRI.

BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR SAT AND SUN...BUT ANOTHER FRONT
ARRIVES TO START NEXT WEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER.       ROCKEY.
&&

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR TONIGHT INTO WED AM
         ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
         UNTIL 8 PM TODAY...AND AGAIN 4 AM TO 9 AM WED.

&&


$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




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