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000
FXUS66 KOTX 161158
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
457 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Today into Wednesday will feel like summer with afternoon
temperatures in the 80s. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures will
follow the passage of a weak cold front on Wednesday night.
Thursday will be locally breezy with a chance for light rain
showers. Sunshine and light winds will return on Friday, and look
for warm temperatures once again this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Wednesday night...Ridge deamplification and
propagation of the ridge axis eastward continues during this time
interval. This opens up the door for approach of shortwave
disturbances from the South and Southwest. Elevated moderate
instability and moisture merit continued mention of sprinkles in
the forecast roughly south and east of a line from Ritzville to
Plummer. Wednesday into Wednesday night the ridge is displaced
even further east in Montana and the flow becomes more southerly
as an offshore low pressure system works its way to northwest and
towards the coast. This necessitates continued mention of showers
along the cascades and up north near the British Columbia border.
As to be expected with the loss of the ridge a slight cooling
trend with increase cloud cover remains. Additionally the winds
should prevail more from the south tonight and Wednesday. /Pelatti

Thursday: The most active weather day of the week should be
Thursday following the passage of a weak cold front Wednesday
night. It is tough to get too excited about much significant
shower activity Thursday. The 0z models agree that the incoming
500mb trough will move inland in pieces with the low amplitude
northern branch shortwave tracking along the U.S/Canadian border
and the moisture rich southern branch wave moving through
California. The NAM and GFS forecast the best combination of mid-
level instability and surface based CAPE over the Idaho Panhandle
Thursday afternoon. Our forecast includes a slight chance of
thunderstorms for places like Bonners Ferry, Sandpoint, Kellogg,
and St Maries. Marginal instability and weak deep layer shear
suggest that any convective cells will be rather unorganized. At
this time, the threat of strong storms looks to be very low.

Breezy west winds should develop Thursday afternoon through the
Cascade gaps, Columbia Basin, Palouse and West Plains. 850mb winds
in the 20-25kt range suggest that gusts will top out close to
25mph in the afternoon and early evening.

Friday: A transition to a drier northwest flow in the 700-500mb
layer is expected to occur on Friday and Saturday. There may be
enough shallow mid-level instability on Friday for widely
scattered showers over the mountains of the Idaho Panhandle and
along the Cascade Crest. Elsewhere, fair weather cumulus and near
normal temperatures should be the norm on Friday.

Saturday through Monday: A return of high pressure ridging over
the weekend will bring sunshine, warm temperatures, and light
winds to the region. The dry air mass, light winds, and
increasingly long nights will promote large diurnal temperature
swings. Chilly nights and warm afternoons. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Increasing moisture from the south will result in some
mid to high level cloud cover above 12 kft agl. These clouds may
produce very light showers or sprinkles. Near KEAT and KLWS and
KPUW this morning, but there is a better chance of just some
virga. Skies will remain hazy due to smoke from fires in central
WA and OR. This may result reduced vis down into MVFR category at
KPUW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        86  56  83  57  78  56 /  10  10  10  10  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  87  52  83  53  78  55 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
Pullman        86  53  84  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10  20  10
Lewiston       92  61  89  61  83  59 /  10  10  10  10  20  10
Colville       89  50  83  51  80  51 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      83  47  78  48  75  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Kellogg        84  54  80  53  74  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Moses Lake     89  56  86  58  82  56 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      88  61  85  62  80  60 /   0  10  10  20  10  10
Omak           90  55  86  57  80  55 /   0  10  10  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 161158
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
457 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Today into Wednesday will feel like summer with afternoon
temperatures in the 80s. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures will
follow the passage of a weak cold front on Wednesday night.
Thursday will be locally breezy with a chance for light rain
showers. Sunshine and light winds will return on Friday, and look
for warm temperatures once again this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Wednesday night...Ridge deamplification and
propagation of the ridge axis eastward continues during this time
interval. This opens up the door for approach of shortwave
disturbances from the South and Southwest. Elevated moderate
instability and moisture merit continued mention of sprinkles in
the forecast roughly south and east of a line from Ritzville to
Plummer. Wednesday into Wednesday night the ridge is displaced
even further east in Montana and the flow becomes more southerly
as an offshore low pressure system works its way to northwest and
towards the coast. This necessitates continued mention of showers
along the cascades and up north near the British Columbia border.
As to be expected with the loss of the ridge a slight cooling
trend with increase cloud cover remains. Additionally the winds
should prevail more from the south tonight and Wednesday. /Pelatti

Thursday: The most active weather day of the week should be
Thursday following the passage of a weak cold front Wednesday
night. It is tough to get too excited about much significant
shower activity Thursday. The 0z models agree that the incoming
500mb trough will move inland in pieces with the low amplitude
northern branch shortwave tracking along the U.S/Canadian border
and the moisture rich southern branch wave moving through
California. The NAM and GFS forecast the best combination of mid-
level instability and surface based CAPE over the Idaho Panhandle
Thursday afternoon. Our forecast includes a slight chance of
thunderstorms for places like Bonners Ferry, Sandpoint, Kellogg,
and St Maries. Marginal instability and weak deep layer shear
suggest that any convective cells will be rather unorganized. At
this time, the threat of strong storms looks to be very low.

Breezy west winds should develop Thursday afternoon through the
Cascade gaps, Columbia Basin, Palouse and West Plains. 850mb winds
in the 20-25kt range suggest that gusts will top out close to
25mph in the afternoon and early evening.

Friday: A transition to a drier northwest flow in the 700-500mb
layer is expected to occur on Friday and Saturday. There may be
enough shallow mid-level instability on Friday for widely
scattered showers over the mountains of the Idaho Panhandle and
along the Cascade Crest. Elsewhere, fair weather cumulus and near
normal temperatures should be the norm on Friday.

Saturday through Monday: A return of high pressure ridging over
the weekend will bring sunshine, warm temperatures, and light
winds to the region. The dry air mass, light winds, and
increasingly long nights will promote large diurnal temperature
swings. Chilly nights and warm afternoons. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Increasing moisture from the south will result in some
mid to high level cloud cover above 12 kft agl. These clouds may
produce very light showers or sprinkles. Near KEAT and KLWS and
KPUW this morning, but there is a better chance of just some
virga. Skies will remain hazy due to smoke from fires in central
WA and OR. This may result reduced vis down into MVFR category at
KPUW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        86  56  83  57  78  56 /  10  10  10  10  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  87  52  83  53  78  55 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
Pullman        86  53  84  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10  20  10
Lewiston       92  61  89  61  83  59 /  10  10  10  10  20  10
Colville       89  50  83  51  80  51 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      83  47  78  48  75  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Kellogg        84  54  80  53  74  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Moses Lake     89  56  86  58  82  56 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      88  61  85  62  80  60 /   0  10  10  20  10  10
Omak           90  55  86  57  80  55 /   0  10  10  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 161158
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
457 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Today into Wednesday will feel like summer with afternoon
temperatures in the 80s. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures will
follow the passage of a weak cold front on Wednesday night.
Thursday will be locally breezy with a chance for light rain
showers. Sunshine and light winds will return on Friday, and look
for warm temperatures once again this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Wednesday night...Ridge deamplification and
propagation of the ridge axis eastward continues during this time
interval. This opens up the door for approach of shortwave
disturbances from the South and Southwest. Elevated moderate
instability and moisture merit continued mention of sprinkles in
the forecast roughly south and east of a line from Ritzville to
Plummer. Wednesday into Wednesday night the ridge is displaced
even further east in Montana and the flow becomes more southerly
as an offshore low pressure system works its way to northwest and
towards the coast. This necessitates continued mention of showers
along the cascades and up north near the British Columbia border.
As to be expected with the loss of the ridge a slight cooling
trend with increase cloud cover remains. Additionally the winds
should prevail more from the south tonight and Wednesday. /Pelatti

Thursday: The most active weather day of the week should be
Thursday following the passage of a weak cold front Wednesday
night. It is tough to get too excited about much significant
shower activity Thursday. The 0z models agree that the incoming
500mb trough will move inland in pieces with the low amplitude
northern branch shortwave tracking along the U.S/Canadian border
and the moisture rich southern branch wave moving through
California. The NAM and GFS forecast the best combination of mid-
level instability and surface based CAPE over the Idaho Panhandle
Thursday afternoon. Our forecast includes a slight chance of
thunderstorms for places like Bonners Ferry, Sandpoint, Kellogg,
and St Maries. Marginal instability and weak deep layer shear
suggest that any convective cells will be rather unorganized. At
this time, the threat of strong storms looks to be very low.

Breezy west winds should develop Thursday afternoon through the
Cascade gaps, Columbia Basin, Palouse and West Plains. 850mb winds
in the 20-25kt range suggest that gusts will top out close to
25mph in the afternoon and early evening.

Friday: A transition to a drier northwest flow in the 700-500mb
layer is expected to occur on Friday and Saturday. There may be
enough shallow mid-level instability on Friday for widely
scattered showers over the mountains of the Idaho Panhandle and
along the Cascade Crest. Elsewhere, fair weather cumulus and near
normal temperatures should be the norm on Friday.

Saturday through Monday: A return of high pressure ridging over
the weekend will bring sunshine, warm temperatures, and light
winds to the region. The dry air mass, light winds, and
increasingly long nights will promote large diurnal temperature
swings. Chilly nights and warm afternoons. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Increasing moisture from the south will result in some
mid to high level cloud cover above 12 kft agl. These clouds may
produce very light showers or sprinkles. Near KEAT and KLWS and
KPUW this morning, but there is a better chance of just some
virga. Skies will remain hazy due to smoke from fires in central
WA and OR. This may result reduced vis down into MVFR category at
KPUW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        86  56  83  57  78  56 /  10  10  10  10  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  87  52  83  53  78  55 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
Pullman        86  53  84  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10  20  10
Lewiston       92  61  89  61  83  59 /  10  10  10  10  20  10
Colville       89  50  83  51  80  51 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      83  47  78  48  75  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Kellogg        84  54  80  53  74  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Moses Lake     89  56  86  58  82  56 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      88  61  85  62  80  60 /   0  10  10  20  10  10
Omak           90  55  86  57  80  55 /   0  10  10  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 161158
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
457 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Today into Wednesday will feel like summer with afternoon
temperatures in the 80s. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures will
follow the passage of a weak cold front on Wednesday night.
Thursday will be locally breezy with a chance for light rain
showers. Sunshine and light winds will return on Friday, and look
for warm temperatures once again this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Wednesday night...Ridge deamplification and
propagation of the ridge axis eastward continues during this time
interval. This opens up the door for approach of shortwave
disturbances from the South and Southwest. Elevated moderate
instability and moisture merit continued mention of sprinkles in
the forecast roughly south and east of a line from Ritzville to
Plummer. Wednesday into Wednesday night the ridge is displaced
even further east in Montana and the flow becomes more southerly
as an offshore low pressure system works its way to northwest and
towards the coast. This necessitates continued mention of showers
along the cascades and up north near the British Columbia border.
As to be expected with the loss of the ridge a slight cooling
trend with increase cloud cover remains. Additionally the winds
should prevail more from the south tonight and Wednesday. /Pelatti

Thursday: The most active weather day of the week should be
Thursday following the passage of a weak cold front Wednesday
night. It is tough to get too excited about much significant
shower activity Thursday. The 0z models agree that the incoming
500mb trough will move inland in pieces with the low amplitude
northern branch shortwave tracking along the U.S/Canadian border
and the moisture rich southern branch wave moving through
California. The NAM and GFS forecast the best combination of mid-
level instability and surface based CAPE over the Idaho Panhandle
Thursday afternoon. Our forecast includes a slight chance of
thunderstorms for places like Bonners Ferry, Sandpoint, Kellogg,
and St Maries. Marginal instability and weak deep layer shear
suggest that any convective cells will be rather unorganized. At
this time, the threat of strong storms looks to be very low.

Breezy west winds should develop Thursday afternoon through the
Cascade gaps, Columbia Basin, Palouse and West Plains. 850mb winds
in the 20-25kt range suggest that gusts will top out close to
25mph in the afternoon and early evening.

Friday: A transition to a drier northwest flow in the 700-500mb
layer is expected to occur on Friday and Saturday. There may be
enough shallow mid-level instability on Friday for widely
scattered showers over the mountains of the Idaho Panhandle and
along the Cascade Crest. Elsewhere, fair weather cumulus and near
normal temperatures should be the norm on Friday.

Saturday through Monday: A return of high pressure ridging over
the weekend will bring sunshine, warm temperatures, and light
winds to the region. The dry air mass, light winds, and
increasingly long nights will promote large diurnal temperature
swings. Chilly nights and warm afternoons. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Increasing moisture from the south will result in some
mid to high level cloud cover above 12 kft agl. These clouds may
produce very light showers or sprinkles. Near KEAT and KLWS and
KPUW this morning, but there is a better chance of just some
virga. Skies will remain hazy due to smoke from fires in central
WA and OR. This may result reduced vis down into MVFR category at
KPUW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        86  56  83  57  78  56 /  10  10  10  10  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  87  52  83  53  78  55 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
Pullman        86  53  84  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10  20  10
Lewiston       92  61  89  61  83  59 /  10  10  10  10  20  10
Colville       89  50  83  51  80  51 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      83  47  78  48  75  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Kellogg        84  54  80  53  74  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Moses Lake     89  56  86  58  82  56 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      88  61  85  62  80  60 /   0  10  10  20  10  10
Omak           90  55  86  57  80  55 /   0  10  10  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 161015 CCB
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
315 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS WEAKENED AND IS MOVING EAST AS A
CIRCULATION ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTS THAT
IS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MOVES NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW IS CENTERED
WELL OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. SOME
WEAK ENERGY MAY SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR AREA FROM THE LOW THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL ENERGY WILL
LIKELY SPREAD IN LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LOW IS HEADING INLAND A
BIT TO OUR SOUTH...SO THAT MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND QPF SOME. A
WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COAST FRIDAY BUT WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY AS IT TRIES TO MOVE ONSHORE DUE TO A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE. THEN THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING SIGNIFICANTLY THIS WEEKEND FOR DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER...AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 IN THE INLAND VALLEYS AGAIN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS WEAKENED AND
ITS AXIS HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION WAS ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COASTS
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST. THERE WAS ONE LIGHTNING STRIKE SO FAR NEAR CANNON BEACH.
THERE WERE ALSO A COUPLE OF CELLS THAT MOVED NORTH ALONG THE COWLITZ
AND SKAMANIA COUNTY BORDERS AS WELL. WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY THIS MORNING MOSTLY NORTH OF
THE COLUMBIA RIVER...EXCEPT WILL INCLUDE A SMALL AREA SOUTH OF THE
COLUMBIA RIVER ALONG THE COAST...BEFORE THE CIRCULATION MOVES NORTH
OF OUR AREA NEAR OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

THIS CIRCULATION HAS SPREAD MARINE CLOUDS NORTH ALONG THE COAST THAT
MIGHT PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING AS
WELL. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT THE INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DROP
TEMPS INLAND TODAY DOWN AROUND 80 OR SO.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS. THE REMAINDER OF TODAY SOME WEAK ENERGY
WILL SPREAD NORTH BUT IS MOSTLY OFF THE COAST...AND IS LIKELY
REPRESENTED BY THE HIGHER CLOUD BAND NEAR THE SOUTHERN LANE COUNTY
BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. THE DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY
OFFSHORE...SO WILL KEEP THE REST OF TODAY ON THE DRY SIDE.

THE LOW STARTS TO MAKE A MOVE TOWARD THE COAST LATER TONIGHT AND ON
WEDNESDAY AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF
THE LOW AND APPROACHES THE COAST FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. OUR FORECAST RAMPS UP THE POPS MAINLY INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AS THIS OCCURS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
OREGON CASCADES LATE WEDNESDAY BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW DEEP
THE MARINE AIR ENDS UP BEING INLAND.

THE LOW SPLITS SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES ONSHORE AND TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY...WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION MOVING ONSHORE TO OUR SOUTH.
CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE INTO THURSDAY.

TEMPS BY THURSDAY MAY EASE DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS...WHICH HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID 70S IN THE INTERIOR.

SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT WILD FIRE SOUTHEAST OF ESTACADA WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE TO THE
EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY.
HOPEFULLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND LOWER TEMPS THE NEXT FEW DAYS HELP
FIRE FIGHTERS. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD AGAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND CAUSES THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
MOSTLY FALL APART AS IT APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY...
ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN TO RECOVER FROM THE EXPECTED VALUES
THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN EARNEST OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER THERMAL TROUGH BUILDING UP THE COAST FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING. TEMPS INLAND WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
APPROACHING 90 AGAIN INLAND. WE MAY SEE SOME MODERATION AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOWS ONSHORE
FLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MIDDLE OR LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AT THE EARLIEST. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...A PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY TRIGGER
ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO REACH THE GROUND.
OTHERWISE...THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT S/SW ONSHORE WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MVFR STRATUS REMAINS ALONG THE
COAST WITH WIDESPREAD VFR OVER THE INTERIOR. EXPECT THE COASTAL
STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE...BUT
LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT THIS POINT...THAT SOME PATCHY MVFR STRATUS MAY
ALSO FORM IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

EXPECT THE STRATUS TO SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING. MVFR/IFR STRATUS MAY
REFORM ALONG THE COAST DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING...BUT THE
INTERIOR WILL LIKELY STAY VFR THROUGH 12Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT AS VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS
DRIFT OVERHEAD IN THE S TO SW FLOW ALOFT. PYLE
&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE WATERS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAK LOW PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN A S TO SW
WIND FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. THERE WILL
BE A MIX OF WAVE TRAINS WITH VARYING PERIODS...OUT OF THE NW W AND
SW. EXPECT OVERALL WAVE HEIGHTS TO INCREASE GRADUALLY TODAY AND
REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THU.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH ANOTHER
THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW CALIF. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF N
WINDS TO THE WATERS...POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AT TIMES. PYLE
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 161015 CCB
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
315 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS WEAKENED AND IS MOVING EAST AS A
CIRCULATION ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTS THAT
IS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MOVES NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW IS CENTERED
WELL OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. SOME
WEAK ENERGY MAY SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR AREA FROM THE LOW THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL ENERGY WILL
LIKELY SPREAD IN LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LOW IS HEADING INLAND A
BIT TO OUR SOUTH...SO THAT MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND QPF SOME. A
WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COAST FRIDAY BUT WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY AS IT TRIES TO MOVE ONSHORE DUE TO A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE. THEN THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING SIGNIFICANTLY THIS WEEKEND FOR DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER...AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 IN THE INLAND VALLEYS AGAIN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS WEAKENED AND
ITS AXIS HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION WAS ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COASTS
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST. THERE WAS ONE LIGHTNING STRIKE SO FAR NEAR CANNON BEACH.
THERE WERE ALSO A COUPLE OF CELLS THAT MOVED NORTH ALONG THE COWLITZ
AND SKAMANIA COUNTY BORDERS AS WELL. WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY THIS MORNING MOSTLY NORTH OF
THE COLUMBIA RIVER...EXCEPT WILL INCLUDE A SMALL AREA SOUTH OF THE
COLUMBIA RIVER ALONG THE COAST...BEFORE THE CIRCULATION MOVES NORTH
OF OUR AREA NEAR OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

THIS CIRCULATION HAS SPREAD MARINE CLOUDS NORTH ALONG THE COAST THAT
MIGHT PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING AS
WELL. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT THE INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DROP
TEMPS INLAND TODAY DOWN AROUND 80 OR SO.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS. THE REMAINDER OF TODAY SOME WEAK ENERGY
WILL SPREAD NORTH BUT IS MOSTLY OFF THE COAST...AND IS LIKELY
REPRESENTED BY THE HIGHER CLOUD BAND NEAR THE SOUTHERN LANE COUNTY
BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. THE DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY
OFFSHORE...SO WILL KEEP THE REST OF TODAY ON THE DRY SIDE.

THE LOW STARTS TO MAKE A MOVE TOWARD THE COAST LATER TONIGHT AND ON
WEDNESDAY AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF
THE LOW AND APPROACHES THE COAST FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. OUR FORECAST RAMPS UP THE POPS MAINLY INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AS THIS OCCURS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
OREGON CASCADES LATE WEDNESDAY BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW DEEP
THE MARINE AIR ENDS UP BEING INLAND.

THE LOW SPLITS SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES ONSHORE AND TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY...WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION MOVING ONSHORE TO OUR SOUTH.
CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE INTO THURSDAY.

TEMPS BY THURSDAY MAY EASE DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS...WHICH HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID 70S IN THE INTERIOR.

SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT WILD FIRE SOUTHEAST OF ESTACADA WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE TO THE
EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY.
HOPEFULLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND LOWER TEMPS THE NEXT FEW DAYS HELP
FIRE FIGHTERS. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD AGAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND CAUSES THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
MOSTLY FALL APART AS IT APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY...
ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN TO RECOVER FROM THE EXPECTED VALUES
THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN EARNEST OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER THERMAL TROUGH BUILDING UP THE COAST FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING. TEMPS INLAND WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
APPROACHING 90 AGAIN INLAND. WE MAY SEE SOME MODERATION AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOWS ONSHORE
FLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MIDDLE OR LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AT THE EARLIEST. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...A PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY TRIGGER
ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO REACH THE GROUND.
OTHERWISE...THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT S/SW ONSHORE WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MVFR STRATUS REMAINS ALONG THE
COAST WITH WIDESPREAD VFR OVER THE INTERIOR. EXPECT THE COASTAL
STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE...BUT
LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT THIS POINT...THAT SOME PATCHY MVFR STRATUS MAY
ALSO FORM IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

EXPECT THE STRATUS TO SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING. MVFR/IFR STRATUS MAY
REFORM ALONG THE COAST DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING...BUT THE
INTERIOR WILL LIKELY STAY VFR THROUGH 12Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT AS VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS
DRIFT OVERHEAD IN THE S TO SW FLOW ALOFT. PYLE
&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE WATERS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAK LOW PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN A S TO SW
WIND FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. THERE WILL
BE A MIX OF WAVE TRAINS WITH VARYING PERIODS...OUT OF THE NW W AND
SW. EXPECT OVERALL WAVE HEIGHTS TO INCREASE GRADUALLY TODAY AND
REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THU.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH ANOTHER
THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW CALIF. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF N
WINDS TO THE WATERS...POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AT TIMES. PYLE
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 161015 CCB
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
315 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS WEAKENED AND IS MOVING EAST AS A
CIRCULATION ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTS THAT
IS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MOVES NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW IS CENTERED
WELL OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. SOME
WEAK ENERGY MAY SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR AREA FROM THE LOW THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL ENERGY WILL
LIKELY SPREAD IN LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LOW IS HEADING INLAND A
BIT TO OUR SOUTH...SO THAT MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND QPF SOME. A
WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COAST FRIDAY BUT WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY AS IT TRIES TO MOVE ONSHORE DUE TO A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE. THEN THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING SIGNIFICANTLY THIS WEEKEND FOR DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER...AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 IN THE INLAND VALLEYS AGAIN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS WEAKENED AND
ITS AXIS HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION WAS ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COASTS
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST. THERE WAS ONE LIGHTNING STRIKE SO FAR NEAR CANNON BEACH.
THERE WERE ALSO A COUPLE OF CELLS THAT MOVED NORTH ALONG THE COWLITZ
AND SKAMANIA COUNTY BORDERS AS WELL. WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY THIS MORNING MOSTLY NORTH OF
THE COLUMBIA RIVER...EXCEPT WILL INCLUDE A SMALL AREA SOUTH OF THE
COLUMBIA RIVER ALONG THE COAST...BEFORE THE CIRCULATION MOVES NORTH
OF OUR AREA NEAR OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

THIS CIRCULATION HAS SPREAD MARINE CLOUDS NORTH ALONG THE COAST THAT
MIGHT PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING AS
WELL. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT THE INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DROP
TEMPS INLAND TODAY DOWN AROUND 80 OR SO.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS. THE REMAINDER OF TODAY SOME WEAK ENERGY
WILL SPREAD NORTH BUT IS MOSTLY OFF THE COAST...AND IS LIKELY
REPRESENTED BY THE HIGHER CLOUD BAND NEAR THE SOUTHERN LANE COUNTY
BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. THE DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY
OFFSHORE...SO WILL KEEP THE REST OF TODAY ON THE DRY SIDE.

THE LOW STARTS TO MAKE A MOVE TOWARD THE COAST LATER TONIGHT AND ON
WEDNESDAY AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF
THE LOW AND APPROACHES THE COAST FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. OUR FORECAST RAMPS UP THE POPS MAINLY INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AS THIS OCCURS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
OREGON CASCADES LATE WEDNESDAY BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW DEEP
THE MARINE AIR ENDS UP BEING INLAND.

THE LOW SPLITS SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES ONSHORE AND TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY...WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION MOVING ONSHORE TO OUR SOUTH.
CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE INTO THURSDAY.

TEMPS BY THURSDAY MAY EASE DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS...WHICH HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID 70S IN THE INTERIOR.

SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT WILD FIRE SOUTHEAST OF ESTACADA WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE TO THE
EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY.
HOPEFULLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND LOWER TEMPS THE NEXT FEW DAYS HELP
FIRE FIGHTERS. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD AGAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND CAUSES THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
MOSTLY FALL APART AS IT APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY...
ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN TO RECOVER FROM THE EXPECTED VALUES
THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN EARNEST OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER THERMAL TROUGH BUILDING UP THE COAST FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING. TEMPS INLAND WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
APPROACHING 90 AGAIN INLAND. WE MAY SEE SOME MODERATION AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOWS ONSHORE
FLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MIDDLE OR LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AT THE EARLIEST. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...A PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY TRIGGER
ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO REACH THE GROUND.
OTHERWISE...THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT S/SW ONSHORE WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MVFR STRATUS REMAINS ALONG THE
COAST WITH WIDESPREAD VFR OVER THE INTERIOR. EXPECT THE COASTAL
STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE...BUT
LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT THIS POINT...THAT SOME PATCHY MVFR STRATUS MAY
ALSO FORM IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

EXPECT THE STRATUS TO SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING. MVFR/IFR STRATUS MAY
REFORM ALONG THE COAST DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING...BUT THE
INTERIOR WILL LIKELY STAY VFR THROUGH 12Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT AS VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS
DRIFT OVERHEAD IN THE S TO SW FLOW ALOFT. PYLE
&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE WATERS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAK LOW PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN A S TO SW
WIND FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. THERE WILL
BE A MIX OF WAVE TRAINS WITH VARYING PERIODS...OUT OF THE NW W AND
SW. EXPECT OVERALL WAVE HEIGHTS TO INCREASE GRADUALLY TODAY AND
REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THU.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH ANOTHER
THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW CALIF. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF N
WINDS TO THE WATERS...POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AT TIMES. PYLE
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 161015 CCB
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
315 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS WEAKENED AND IS MOVING EAST AS A
CIRCULATION ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTS THAT
IS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MOVES NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW IS CENTERED
WELL OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. SOME
WEAK ENERGY MAY SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR AREA FROM THE LOW THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL ENERGY WILL
LIKELY SPREAD IN LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LOW IS HEADING INLAND A
BIT TO OUR SOUTH...SO THAT MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND QPF SOME. A
WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COAST FRIDAY BUT WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY AS IT TRIES TO MOVE ONSHORE DUE TO A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE. THEN THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING SIGNIFICANTLY THIS WEEKEND FOR DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER...AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 IN THE INLAND VALLEYS AGAIN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS WEAKENED AND
ITS AXIS HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION WAS ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COASTS
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST. THERE WAS ONE LIGHTNING STRIKE SO FAR NEAR CANNON BEACH.
THERE WERE ALSO A COUPLE OF CELLS THAT MOVED NORTH ALONG THE COWLITZ
AND SKAMANIA COUNTY BORDERS AS WELL. WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY THIS MORNING MOSTLY NORTH OF
THE COLUMBIA RIVER...EXCEPT WILL INCLUDE A SMALL AREA SOUTH OF THE
COLUMBIA RIVER ALONG THE COAST...BEFORE THE CIRCULATION MOVES NORTH
OF OUR AREA NEAR OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

THIS CIRCULATION HAS SPREAD MARINE CLOUDS NORTH ALONG THE COAST THAT
MIGHT PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING AS
WELL. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT THE INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DROP
TEMPS INLAND TODAY DOWN AROUND 80 OR SO.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS. THE REMAINDER OF TODAY SOME WEAK ENERGY
WILL SPREAD NORTH BUT IS MOSTLY OFF THE COAST...AND IS LIKELY
REPRESENTED BY THE HIGHER CLOUD BAND NEAR THE SOUTHERN LANE COUNTY
BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. THE DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY
OFFSHORE...SO WILL KEEP THE REST OF TODAY ON THE DRY SIDE.

THE LOW STARTS TO MAKE A MOVE TOWARD THE COAST LATER TONIGHT AND ON
WEDNESDAY AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF
THE LOW AND APPROACHES THE COAST FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. OUR FORECAST RAMPS UP THE POPS MAINLY INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AS THIS OCCURS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
OREGON CASCADES LATE WEDNESDAY BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW DEEP
THE MARINE AIR ENDS UP BEING INLAND.

THE LOW SPLITS SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES ONSHORE AND TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY...WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION MOVING ONSHORE TO OUR SOUTH.
CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE INTO THURSDAY.

TEMPS BY THURSDAY MAY EASE DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS...WHICH HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID 70S IN THE INTERIOR.

SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT WILD FIRE SOUTHEAST OF ESTACADA WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE TO THE
EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY.
HOPEFULLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND LOWER TEMPS THE NEXT FEW DAYS HELP
FIRE FIGHTERS. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD AGAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND CAUSES THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
MOSTLY FALL APART AS IT APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY...
ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN TO RECOVER FROM THE EXPECTED VALUES
THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN EARNEST OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER THERMAL TROUGH BUILDING UP THE COAST FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING. TEMPS INLAND WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
APPROACHING 90 AGAIN INLAND. WE MAY SEE SOME MODERATION AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOWS ONSHORE
FLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MIDDLE OR LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AT THE EARLIEST. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...A PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY TRIGGER
ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO REACH THE GROUND.
OTHERWISE...THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT S/SW ONSHORE WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MVFR STRATUS REMAINS ALONG THE
COAST WITH WIDESPREAD VFR OVER THE INTERIOR. EXPECT THE COASTAL
STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE...BUT
LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT THIS POINT...THAT SOME PATCHY MVFR STRATUS MAY
ALSO FORM IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

EXPECT THE STRATUS TO SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING. MVFR/IFR STRATUS MAY
REFORM ALONG THE COAST DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING...BUT THE
INTERIOR WILL LIKELY STAY VFR THROUGH 12Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT AS VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS
DRIFT OVERHEAD IN THE S TO SW FLOW ALOFT. PYLE
&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE WATERS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAK LOW PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL MAINTAIN A S TO SW
WIND FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. THERE WILL
BE A MIX OF WAVE TRAINS WITH VARYING PERIODS...OUT OF THE NW W AND
SW. EXPECT OVERALL WAVE HEIGHTS TO INCREASE GRADUALLY TODAY AND
REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THU.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH ANOTHER
THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW CALIF. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF N
WINDS TO THE WATERS...POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AT TIMES. PYLE
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSEW 160953
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
252 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON TODAY ALONG WITH AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS MOST LIKELY ON THURSDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND FOR WARMER
AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A SW MARINE PUSH OVERNIGHT HAS BROUGHT AREAS OF
STRATUS INLAND THIS MORNING. STRATUS REACHED SHELTON AROUND MIDNIGHT
AND WITH KSHN WINDS BLOWING SW 15-25KT SHOULD SPREAD THE LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS MOST OF PUGET SOUND THIS MORNING. THE SMALL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT HAS TRIGGERED THE MARINE PUSH WAS CENTERED OVER ASTORIA
AT 09Z/2 AM AND WAS HEADED QUICKLY NORTH. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS
WAS ALONG THE N OREGON COAST ALONG WITH A SOLO LIGHTNING STRIKE AT
0745Z. THIS SHOWER AREA IS SMALL ENOUGH TO FIZZLE OUT THIS MORNING
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES DEEPER INTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE PACNW...BUT STILL BEARS WATCHING.

THE NAM12 AND ARW-W BOUNDARY LAYER RH FORECASTS SEEMED A REASONABLE
INDICATOR FOR STRATUS COVERAGE TODAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY
BLANKET PUGET SOUND THIS MORNING WITH A LITTLE BIT SPREADING E OF
LAKE WASHINGTON...BUT SHOULD BURN OFF OVER THE SOUND THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER THE STRATUS WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH ALONG THE COAST AND ONSHORE
FLOW PERSISTENT ENOUGH SO THAT STRATUS WILL PROBABLY NOT BURN OFF
OVER THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY TODAY. THE RATHER SPARSE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL NOT ADD MUCH TO THE OVERALL
CLOUD COVER. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY TODAY...WITH STRONGER
COOLING EXPECTED IN THE STRATUS AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
AND OVER THE LOWER CHEHALIS.

MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY WERE ALSO TROUBLESOME. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE
ABOUT AS STRONG TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
BE DEEPER AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF W WA...BUT INSTABILITY FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM OFFSHORE SHOULD HELP THE
CLOUD COVER BREAK UP A BIT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR MAX TEMPS THIS
MEANS THAT LOCATIONS TODAY WHERE THE STRATUS IS MOST PERSISTENT
COULD VERY WELL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN A BETTER MIXED
MARINE LAYER. LOCATIONS THAT ARE STRATUS FREE TODAY...MAY END UP
BEING A LITTLE COOLER BECAUSE OF THE GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS ON
WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL THE MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFFSHORE ALONG 140W EJECTING E THIS WEEK.
SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY SPREAD TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND THEN INLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING FOR
THE GREATEST SHOWER POTENTIAL AND LIKELY POPS. THURSDAY SHOULD BE
THE COOLEST DAY WITH THE COOLER AIR MASS FROM THE TROUGH RIGHT
OVERHEAD. KAM

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER E WA THURSDAY
EVENING WITH DIMINISHING SHOWERS OVER W WA. HOWEVER ANOTHER WEAKER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE WILL PROLONG THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF AGREE WELL ON BUILDING
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MOVING IT
INLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF E-NE LOW LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW...WHICH COULD PUSH MAX TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE 80S THIS
WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE THE RIDGE
SHIFTING E OVER W MT SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A WEAKENING FRONT TO
APPROACH THE COAST ON MONDAY. HOWEVER THE FRONT COULD BE WEAK AND
SLOW ENOUGH TO EKE OUT A MOSTLY SUNNY DRY MONDAY AS WELL. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS COAST AND AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS IN PUGET SOUND
THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE MARINE STRATUS MAY PUSH EAST IN THE STRAIT
THIS MORNING BUT MORE LIKELY WILL HOLD OFF TIL THE STRONGER PUSH
THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE AREAS THAT DO NOT SEE MORNING LOW
CLOUDS...MAINLY NORTH OF EVERETT...THERE WILL ONLY BE SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. THE RIDGE IS MOVING EAST AND THERE IS SW FLOW ALOFT.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AND WED MORNING.

KSEA...MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...THEN JUST SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. WITH ONSHORE FLOW THE BREEZE WILL REMAIN S TO SW.

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW...AND A DECENT WLY PUSH IS LIKELY IN THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER THE MARINE
PUSH TODAY THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS WEATHER SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
FROM NOON TODAY TIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KSEW 160953
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
252 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON TODAY ALONG WITH AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS MOST LIKELY ON THURSDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND FOR WARMER
AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A SW MARINE PUSH OVERNIGHT HAS BROUGHT AREAS OF
STRATUS INLAND THIS MORNING. STRATUS REACHED SHELTON AROUND MIDNIGHT
AND WITH KSHN WINDS BLOWING SW 15-25KT SHOULD SPREAD THE LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS MOST OF PUGET SOUND THIS MORNING. THE SMALL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT HAS TRIGGERED THE MARINE PUSH WAS CENTERED OVER ASTORIA
AT 09Z/2 AM AND WAS HEADED QUICKLY NORTH. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS
WAS ALONG THE N OREGON COAST ALONG WITH A SOLO LIGHTNING STRIKE AT
0745Z. THIS SHOWER AREA IS SMALL ENOUGH TO FIZZLE OUT THIS MORNING
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES DEEPER INTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE PACNW...BUT STILL BEARS WATCHING.

THE NAM12 AND ARW-W BOUNDARY LAYER RH FORECASTS SEEMED A REASONABLE
INDICATOR FOR STRATUS COVERAGE TODAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY
BLANKET PUGET SOUND THIS MORNING WITH A LITTLE BIT SPREADING E OF
LAKE WASHINGTON...BUT SHOULD BURN OFF OVER THE SOUND THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER THE STRATUS WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH ALONG THE COAST AND ONSHORE
FLOW PERSISTENT ENOUGH SO THAT STRATUS WILL PROBABLY NOT BURN OFF
OVER THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY TODAY. THE RATHER SPARSE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL NOT ADD MUCH TO THE OVERALL
CLOUD COVER. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY TODAY...WITH STRONGER
COOLING EXPECTED IN THE STRATUS AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
AND OVER THE LOWER CHEHALIS.

MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY WERE ALSO TROUBLESOME. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE
ABOUT AS STRONG TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
BE DEEPER AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF W WA...BUT INSTABILITY FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM OFFSHORE SHOULD HELP THE
CLOUD COVER BREAK UP A BIT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR MAX TEMPS THIS
MEANS THAT LOCATIONS TODAY WHERE THE STRATUS IS MOST PERSISTENT
COULD VERY WELL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN A BETTER MIXED
MARINE LAYER. LOCATIONS THAT ARE STRATUS FREE TODAY...MAY END UP
BEING A LITTLE COOLER BECAUSE OF THE GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS ON
WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL THE MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFFSHORE ALONG 140W EJECTING E THIS WEEK.
SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY SPREAD TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND THEN INLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING FOR
THE GREATEST SHOWER POTENTIAL AND LIKELY POPS. THURSDAY SHOULD BE
THE COOLEST DAY WITH THE COOLER AIR MASS FROM THE TROUGH RIGHT
OVERHEAD. KAM

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER E WA THURSDAY
EVENING WITH DIMINISHING SHOWERS OVER W WA. HOWEVER ANOTHER WEAKER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE WILL PROLONG THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF AGREE WELL ON BUILDING
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MOVING IT
INLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF E-NE LOW LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW...WHICH COULD PUSH MAX TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE 80S THIS
WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE THE RIDGE
SHIFTING E OVER W MT SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A WEAKENING FRONT TO
APPROACH THE COAST ON MONDAY. HOWEVER THE FRONT COULD BE WEAK AND
SLOW ENOUGH TO EKE OUT A MOSTLY SUNNY DRY MONDAY AS WELL. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS COAST AND AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS IN PUGET SOUND
THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE MARINE STRATUS MAY PUSH EAST IN THE STRAIT
THIS MORNING BUT MORE LIKELY WILL HOLD OFF TIL THE STRONGER PUSH
THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE AREAS THAT DO NOT SEE MORNING LOW
CLOUDS...MAINLY NORTH OF EVERETT...THERE WILL ONLY BE SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. THE RIDGE IS MOVING EAST AND THERE IS SW FLOW ALOFT.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AND WED MORNING.

KSEA...MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...THEN JUST SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. WITH ONSHORE FLOW THE BREEZE WILL REMAIN S TO SW.

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW...AND A DECENT WLY PUSH IS LIKELY IN THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER THE MARINE
PUSH TODAY THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS WEATHER SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
FROM NOON TODAY TIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KOTX 160948
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
247 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Today into Wednesday will feel like summer with afternoon
temperatures in the 80s. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures will
follow the passage of a weak cold front on Wednesday night.
Thursday will be locally breezy with a chance for light rain
showers. Sunshine and light winds will return on Friday, and look
for warm temperatures once again this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Wednesday night...Ridge deamplification and
propagation of the ridge axis eastward continues during this time
interval. This opens up the door for approach of shortwave
disturbances from the South and Southwest. Elevated moderate
instability and moisture merit continued mention of sprinkles in
the forecast roughly south and east of a line from Ritzville to
Plummer. Wednesday into Wednesday night the ridge is displaced
even further east in Montana and the flow becomes more southerly
as an offshore low pressure system works its way to northwest and
towards the coast. This necessitates continued mention of showers
along the cascades and up north near the British Columbia border.
As to be expected with the loss of the ridge a slight cooling
trend with increase cloud cover remains. Additionally the winds
should prevail more from the south tonight and Wednesday. /Pelatti

Thursday: The most active weather day of the week should be
Thursday following the passage of a weak cold front Wednesday
night. It is tough to get too excited about much significant
shower activity Thursday. The 0z models agree that the incoming
500mb trough will move inland in pieces with the low amplitude
northern branch shortwave tracking along the U.S/Canadian border
and the moisture rich southern branch wave moving through
California. The NAM and GFS forecast the best combination of mid-
level instability and surface based CAPE over the Idaho Panhandle
Thursday afternoon. Our forecast includes a slight chance of
thunderstorms for places like Bonners Ferry, Sandpoint, Kellogg,
and St Maries. Marginal instability and weak deep layer shear
suggest that any convective cells will be rather unorganized. At
this time, the threat of strong storms looks to be very low.

Breezy west winds should develop Thursday afternoon through the
Cascade gaps, Columbia Basin, Palouse and West Plains. 850mb winds
in the 20-25kt range suggest that gusts will top out close to
25mph in the afternoon and early evening.

Friday: A transition to a drier northwest flow in the 700-500mb
layer is expected to occur on Friday and Saturday. There may be
enough shallow mid-level instability on Friday for widely
scattered showers over the mountains of the Idaho Panhandle and
along the Cascade Crest. Elsewhere, fair weather cumulus and near
normal temperatures should be the norm on Friday.

Saturday through Monday: A return of high pressure ridging over
the weekend will bring sunshine, warm temperatures, and light
winds to the region. The dry air mass, light winds, and
increasingly long nights will promote large diurnal temperature
swings. Chilly nights and warm afternoons. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Increasing moisture from the south will result in some mid
to high level cloud cover above 12 kft agl. These clouds may
produce very light showers or sprinkles at KLWS and KPUW this
morning, but there is a better chance of just some virga. Skies
will remain hazy due to smoke from fires in central WA and OR.
This may result reduced vis down into MVFR category at KPUW. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        86  56  83  57  78  56 /  10  10  10  10  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  87  52  83  53  78  55 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
Pullman        86  53  84  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10  20  10
Lewiston       92  61  89  61  83  59 /  10  10  10  10  20  10
Colville       89  50  83  51  80  51 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      83  47  78  48  75  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Kellogg        84  54  80  53  74  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Moses Lake     89  56  86  58  82  56 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      88  61  85  62  80  60 /   0  10  10  20  10  10
Omak           90  55  86  57  80  55 /   0  10  10  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 160948
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
247 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Today into Wednesday will feel like summer with afternoon
temperatures in the 80s. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures will
follow the passage of a weak cold front on Wednesday night.
Thursday will be locally breezy with a chance for light rain
showers. Sunshine and light winds will return on Friday, and look
for warm temperatures once again this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Wednesday night...Ridge deamplification and
propagation of the ridge axis eastward continues during this time
interval. This opens up the door for approach of shortwave
disturbances from the South and Southwest. Elevated moderate
instability and moisture merit continued mention of sprinkles in
the forecast roughly south and east of a line from Ritzville to
Plummer. Wednesday into Wednesday night the ridge is displaced
even further east in Montana and the flow becomes more southerly
as an offshore low pressure system works its way to northwest and
towards the coast. This necessitates continued mention of showers
along the cascades and up north near the British Columbia border.
As to be expected with the loss of the ridge a slight cooling
trend with increase cloud cover remains. Additionally the winds
should prevail more from the south tonight and Wednesday. /Pelatti

Thursday: The most active weather day of the week should be
Thursday following the passage of a weak cold front Wednesday
night. It is tough to get too excited about much significant
shower activity Thursday. The 0z models agree that the incoming
500mb trough will move inland in pieces with the low amplitude
northern branch shortwave tracking along the U.S/Canadian border
and the moisture rich southern branch wave moving through
California. The NAM and GFS forecast the best combination of mid-
level instability and surface based CAPE over the Idaho Panhandle
Thursday afternoon. Our forecast includes a slight chance of
thunderstorms for places like Bonners Ferry, Sandpoint, Kellogg,
and St Maries. Marginal instability and weak deep layer shear
suggest that any convective cells will be rather unorganized. At
this time, the threat of strong storms looks to be very low.

Breezy west winds should develop Thursday afternoon through the
Cascade gaps, Columbia Basin, Palouse and West Plains. 850mb winds
in the 20-25kt range suggest that gusts will top out close to
25mph in the afternoon and early evening.

Friday: A transition to a drier northwest flow in the 700-500mb
layer is expected to occur on Friday and Saturday. There may be
enough shallow mid-level instability on Friday for widely
scattered showers over the mountains of the Idaho Panhandle and
along the Cascade Crest. Elsewhere, fair weather cumulus and near
normal temperatures should be the norm on Friday.

Saturday through Monday: A return of high pressure ridging over
the weekend will bring sunshine, warm temperatures, and light
winds to the region. The dry air mass, light winds, and
increasingly long nights will promote large diurnal temperature
swings. Chilly nights and warm afternoons. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Increasing moisture from the south will result in some mid
to high level cloud cover above 12 kft agl. These clouds may
produce very light showers or sprinkles at KLWS and KPUW this
morning, but there is a better chance of just some virga. Skies
will remain hazy due to smoke from fires in central WA and OR.
This may result reduced vis down into MVFR category at KPUW. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        86  56  83  57  78  56 /  10  10  10  10  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  87  52  83  53  78  55 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
Pullman        86  53  84  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10  20  10
Lewiston       92  61  89  61  83  59 /  10  10  10  10  20  10
Colville       89  50  83  51  80  51 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      83  47  78  48  75  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Kellogg        84  54  80  53  74  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Moses Lake     89  56  86  58  82  56 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      88  61  85  62  80  60 /   0  10  10  20  10  10
Omak           90  55  86  57  80  55 /   0  10  10  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 160948
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
247 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Today into Wednesday will feel like summer with afternoon
temperatures in the 80s. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures will
follow the passage of a weak cold front on Wednesday night.
Thursday will be locally breezy with a chance for light rain
showers. Sunshine and light winds will return on Friday, and look
for warm temperatures once again this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Wednesday night...Ridge deamplification and
propagation of the ridge axis eastward continues during this time
interval. This opens up the door for approach of shortwave
disturbances from the South and Southwest. Elevated moderate
instability and moisture merit continued mention of sprinkles in
the forecast roughly south and east of a line from Ritzville to
Plummer. Wednesday into Wednesday night the ridge is displaced
even further east in Montana and the flow becomes more southerly
as an offshore low pressure system works its way to northwest and
towards the coast. This necessitates continued mention of showers
along the cascades and up north near the British Columbia border.
As to be expected with the loss of the ridge a slight cooling
trend with increase cloud cover remains. Additionally the winds
should prevail more from the south tonight and Wednesday. /Pelatti

Thursday: The most active weather day of the week should be
Thursday following the passage of a weak cold front Wednesday
night. It is tough to get too excited about much significant
shower activity Thursday. The 0z models agree that the incoming
500mb trough will move inland in pieces with the low amplitude
northern branch shortwave tracking along the U.S/Canadian border
and the moisture rich southern branch wave moving through
California. The NAM and GFS forecast the best combination of mid-
level instability and surface based CAPE over the Idaho Panhandle
Thursday afternoon. Our forecast includes a slight chance of
thunderstorms for places like Bonners Ferry, Sandpoint, Kellogg,
and St Maries. Marginal instability and weak deep layer shear
suggest that any convective cells will be rather unorganized. At
this time, the threat of strong storms looks to be very low.

Breezy west winds should develop Thursday afternoon through the
Cascade gaps, Columbia Basin, Palouse and West Plains. 850mb winds
in the 20-25kt range suggest that gusts will top out close to
25mph in the afternoon and early evening.

Friday: A transition to a drier northwest flow in the 700-500mb
layer is expected to occur on Friday and Saturday. There may be
enough shallow mid-level instability on Friday for widely
scattered showers over the mountains of the Idaho Panhandle and
along the Cascade Crest. Elsewhere, fair weather cumulus and near
normal temperatures should be the norm on Friday.

Saturday through Monday: A return of high pressure ridging over
the weekend will bring sunshine, warm temperatures, and light
winds to the region. The dry air mass, light winds, and
increasingly long nights will promote large diurnal temperature
swings. Chilly nights and warm afternoons. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Increasing moisture from the south will result in some mid
to high level cloud cover above 12 kft agl. These clouds may
produce very light showers or sprinkles at KLWS and KPUW this
morning, but there is a better chance of just some virga. Skies
will remain hazy due to smoke from fires in central WA and OR.
This may result reduced vis down into MVFR category at KPUW. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        86  56  83  57  78  56 /  10  10  10  10  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  87  52  83  53  78  55 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
Pullman        86  53  84  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10  20  10
Lewiston       92  61  89  61  83  59 /  10  10  10  10  20  10
Colville       89  50  83  51  80  51 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      83  47  78  48  75  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Kellogg        84  54  80  53  74  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Moses Lake     89  56  86  58  82  56 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      88  61  85  62  80  60 /   0  10  10  20  10  10
Omak           90  55  86  57  80  55 /   0  10  10  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 160948
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
247 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Today into Wednesday will feel like summer with afternoon
temperatures in the 80s. Cooler, more seasonal temperatures will
follow the passage of a weak cold front on Wednesday night.
Thursday will be locally breezy with a chance for light rain
showers. Sunshine and light winds will return on Friday, and look
for warm temperatures once again this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Wednesday night...Ridge deamplification and
propagation of the ridge axis eastward continues during this time
interval. This opens up the door for approach of shortwave
disturbances from the South and Southwest. Elevated moderate
instability and moisture merit continued mention of sprinkles in
the forecast roughly south and east of a line from Ritzville to
Plummer. Wednesday into Wednesday night the ridge is displaced
even further east in Montana and the flow becomes more southerly
as an offshore low pressure system works its way to northwest and
towards the coast. This necessitates continued mention of showers
along the cascades and up north near the British Columbia border.
As to be expected with the loss of the ridge a slight cooling
trend with increase cloud cover remains. Additionally the winds
should prevail more from the south tonight and Wednesday. /Pelatti

Thursday: The most active weather day of the week should be
Thursday following the passage of a weak cold front Wednesday
night. It is tough to get too excited about much significant
shower activity Thursday. The 0z models agree that the incoming
500mb trough will move inland in pieces with the low amplitude
northern branch shortwave tracking along the U.S/Canadian border
and the moisture rich southern branch wave moving through
California. The NAM and GFS forecast the best combination of mid-
level instability and surface based CAPE over the Idaho Panhandle
Thursday afternoon. Our forecast includes a slight chance of
thunderstorms for places like Bonners Ferry, Sandpoint, Kellogg,
and St Maries. Marginal instability and weak deep layer shear
suggest that any convective cells will be rather unorganized. At
this time, the threat of strong storms looks to be very low.

Breezy west winds should develop Thursday afternoon through the
Cascade gaps, Columbia Basin, Palouse and West Plains. 850mb winds
in the 20-25kt range suggest that gusts will top out close to
25mph in the afternoon and early evening.

Friday: A transition to a drier northwest flow in the 700-500mb
layer is expected to occur on Friday and Saturday. There may be
enough shallow mid-level instability on Friday for widely
scattered showers over the mountains of the Idaho Panhandle and
along the Cascade Crest. Elsewhere, fair weather cumulus and near
normal temperatures should be the norm on Friday.

Saturday through Monday: A return of high pressure ridging over
the weekend will bring sunshine, warm temperatures, and light
winds to the region. The dry air mass, light winds, and
increasingly long nights will promote large diurnal temperature
swings. Chilly nights and warm afternoons. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Increasing moisture from the south will result in some mid
to high level cloud cover above 12 kft agl. These clouds may
produce very light showers or sprinkles at KLWS and KPUW this
morning, but there is a better chance of just some virga. Skies
will remain hazy due to smoke from fires in central WA and OR.
This may result reduced vis down into MVFR category at KPUW. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        86  56  83  57  78  56 /  10  10  10  10  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  87  52  83  53  78  55 /  10  10  10  10  30  20
Pullman        86  53  84  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10  20  10
Lewiston       92  61  89  61  83  59 /  10  10  10  10  20  10
Colville       89  50  83  51  80  51 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Sandpoint      83  47  78  48  75  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Kellogg        84  54  80  53  74  52 /  10  10  10  10  30  30
Moses Lake     89  56  86  58  82  56 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      88  61  85  62  80  60 /   0  10  10  20  10  10
Omak           90  55  86  57  80  55 /   0  10  10  20  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 160525
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1025 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm temperatures will be across the Inland Northwest
through Wednesday as high pressure remains over the region. A weak
cold front will likely arrive on Thursday cooling temperatures
closer to normal. There will also be a chance for light mountain showers
Thursday into Friday morning with the passing front. Warm and dry
conditions will likely return for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Tuesday: High pressure will be over the region for the
next 24 hours, although it will weaken slightly as a shortwave off
the Oregon coast pivots into it. A band of high level moisture
associated with the shortwave will sweep in from the south
overnight into Tuesday. The lift is weak especially as the
shortwave falls apart as it tracks into the upper ridge axis
position. Most of this moisture will be above 10k ft, so the
threat of any precipitation will be minor. But the best if any
chance will be across the Blue mountains Tuesday morning and then
into central ID panhandle by Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise
anticipate some areas of virga or isolated sprinkles with the
cloud band across southeast Washington and southern Idaho
panhandle. Meanwhile, low level temperatures will continue to
rise, about 2 to 4 degrees warmer on Tuesday. This would make
Tuesday the warmest day of the week. Winds will be light and
mostly east/northeast tonight into Tuesday morning, with southwest
winds creeping into the southern Columbia Basin and Palouse by
Tuesday afternoon. /rfox

Tuesday night through Thursday night...In the big picture a
splitting trough will move into the eastern Pacific by Tuesday
afternoon. By Wednesday afternoon the southern portion of the
split closes into a cut-off low with the best moisture and
dynamics staying well south of our area. What this will do is drag
a weakening trough through southern B.C. Wednesday night and
Thursday with best forcing staying in central B.C. There will be
some mid level moisture that will move into the area Wednesday
night and Thursday.

For Tuesday night the models keep showing a weak wave moving
out of northeast Oregon and just brushing our southeast zones.
I kept some very low end pops through the night, but am far from
impressed and thinking at this just may be some increasing mid-
level clouds.

Wednesday night through Thursday night...Slight chance to chance
pops over the Cascades Wednesday night...then the chance for
precipitation will track across the northern mountains and Idaho
Panhandle for Thursday and Thursday night. Precipitation as mainly
showers... however there appears to be enough mid level
instability to introduce a few lighting strikes for the far
northeast mountains and Idaho Panhandle zones late in the day
Thursday. Confidence is much better for some light shower than any
lightning. Any precipitation should be a tenth or less. A slight
up tick in the southwest winds can also be expected Thursday
afternoon with sustained winds around 10mph. /Tobin

Friday afternoon through Tuesday morning: The exiting mid-week
trough will be replaced by another ridge of high pressure for the
weekend. While the ridge looks to keep things pleasant all
weekend, another trough will approach early next week.

The ridge should bring warming temperatures, with afternoon
readings topping out 10 to 15 degrees above normal (widespread
80s). The approach of another trough off the Pacific Northwest
coastline should begin to bring those temperatures back towards
normal, but will still be 3 to 7 degrees above (mid/upper 70s). ty

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Increasing moisture from the south will result in some mid
to high level cloud cover above 12 kft agl. These clouds may
produce very light showers or sprinkles at KLWS and KPUW this
morning, but there is a better chance of just some virga. Skies
will remain hazy due to smoke from fires in central WA and OR.
This may result reduced vis down into MVFR category at KPUW. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  85  56  83  57  79 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Coeur d`Alene  51  85  52  83  53  78 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Pullman        50  84  53  84  53  79 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       60  90  61  89  61  84 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       46  90  50  83  51  81 /   0   0  10  10  20  20
Sandpoint      41  83  47  78  48  75 /   0  10  10  10  10  30
Kellogg        50  83  54  80  53  75 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Moses Lake     51  87  56  86  58  84 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      56  86  61  85  62  81 /   0   0  10  10  20  30
Omak           48  88  55  86  57  82 /   0   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 160525
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1025 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm temperatures will be across the Inland Northwest
through Wednesday as high pressure remains over the region. A weak
cold front will likely arrive on Thursday cooling temperatures
closer to normal. There will also be a chance for light mountain showers
Thursday into Friday morning with the passing front. Warm and dry
conditions will likely return for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Tuesday: High pressure will be over the region for the
next 24 hours, although it will weaken slightly as a shortwave off
the Oregon coast pivots into it. A band of high level moisture
associated with the shortwave will sweep in from the south
overnight into Tuesday. The lift is weak especially as the
shortwave falls apart as it tracks into the upper ridge axis
position. Most of this moisture will be above 10k ft, so the
threat of any precipitation will be minor. But the best if any
chance will be across the Blue mountains Tuesday morning and then
into central ID panhandle by Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise
anticipate some areas of virga or isolated sprinkles with the
cloud band across southeast Washington and southern Idaho
panhandle. Meanwhile, low level temperatures will continue to
rise, about 2 to 4 degrees warmer on Tuesday. This would make
Tuesday the warmest day of the week. Winds will be light and
mostly east/northeast tonight into Tuesday morning, with southwest
winds creeping into the southern Columbia Basin and Palouse by
Tuesday afternoon. /rfox

Tuesday night through Thursday night...In the big picture a
splitting trough will move into the eastern Pacific by Tuesday
afternoon. By Wednesday afternoon the southern portion of the
split closes into a cut-off low with the best moisture and
dynamics staying well south of our area. What this will do is drag
a weakening trough through southern B.C. Wednesday night and
Thursday with best forcing staying in central B.C. There will be
some mid level moisture that will move into the area Wednesday
night and Thursday.

For Tuesday night the models keep showing a weak wave moving
out of northeast Oregon and just brushing our southeast zones.
I kept some very low end pops through the night, but am far from
impressed and thinking at this just may be some increasing mid-
level clouds.

Wednesday night through Thursday night...Slight chance to chance
pops over the Cascades Wednesday night...then the chance for
precipitation will track across the northern mountains and Idaho
Panhandle for Thursday and Thursday night. Precipitation as mainly
showers... however there appears to be enough mid level
instability to introduce a few lighting strikes for the far
northeast mountains and Idaho Panhandle zones late in the day
Thursday. Confidence is much better for some light shower than any
lightning. Any precipitation should be a tenth or less. A slight
up tick in the southwest winds can also be expected Thursday
afternoon with sustained winds around 10mph. /Tobin

Friday afternoon through Tuesday morning: The exiting mid-week
trough will be replaced by another ridge of high pressure for the
weekend. While the ridge looks to keep things pleasant all
weekend, another trough will approach early next week.

The ridge should bring warming temperatures, with afternoon
readings topping out 10 to 15 degrees above normal (widespread
80s). The approach of another trough off the Pacific Northwest
coastline should begin to bring those temperatures back towards
normal, but will still be 3 to 7 degrees above (mid/upper 70s). ty

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Increasing moisture from the south will result in some mid
to high level cloud cover above 12 kft agl. These clouds may
produce very light showers or sprinkles at KLWS and KPUW this
morning, but there is a better chance of just some virga. Skies
will remain hazy due to smoke from fires in central WA and OR.
This may result reduced vis down into MVFR category at KPUW. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  85  56  83  57  79 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Coeur d`Alene  51  85  52  83  53  78 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Pullman        50  84  53  84  53  79 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       60  90  61  89  61  84 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       46  90  50  83  51  81 /   0   0  10  10  20  20
Sandpoint      41  83  47  78  48  75 /   0  10  10  10  10  30
Kellogg        50  83  54  80  53  75 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Moses Lake     51  87  56  86  58  84 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      56  86  61  85  62  81 /   0   0  10  10  20  30
Omak           48  88  55  86  57  82 /   0   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 160331 CCB
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
831 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT WILDFIRE WILL IMPACT MOST OF NW
OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRUSH THE REGION TONIGHT...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THIS TROUGH
WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN OF LOW MARINE CLOUDS TO THE AREA...AND HELP
COOL TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. A WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY REBUILD FRIDAY WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
RETURNING NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE...INCREASING SW FLOW IS IMPACTING THE
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS EVENING AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES LIFTING NORTH TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. GUSTY SW WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO DROP THIS EVENING. HAVE BEEN WATCHING FOR HOW DENSE THE
MARINE STRATUS WOULD BE GETTING AT NEWPORT THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
BE A GOOD INDICATION FOR HOW MUCH WILL SPILL INTO THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECTING THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY SEEING
SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AS SW FLOW PERSISTS...BUT RAW
MODEL AND MOS GUIDANCE IS STILL NOT JUMPING ON A STRONG MARINE PUSH
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE VALLEY TONIGHT.

WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT THREAT FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH IN THE
WAY OF LIGHTNING...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRIKE OR TWO AS THE
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES FURTHER NORTH. /27

SOUTHWEST WINDS SPILLING THROUGH THE COAST RANGE GAPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR OUT SOME
OF THE SMOKE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 36 PIT FIRE BURNING SE OF ESTACADA
OREGON TONIGHT. STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY SHOULD ALSO ASSIST IN
MOST SMOKE SPREADING EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
NONETHELESS...LIGHT DOWN VALLEY WINDS WILL LIKELY ALLOW THICK SMOKE
AND AIR QUALITY ISSUES TO PERSIST IN NEARBY TOWNS LIKE ESTACADA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 140W AND 35N WILL APPROACH THE WEST
COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE
DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO
SPLIT FROM THE MEAN FLOW AND DIVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS OF
NOW...THE MAIN GLOBAL MODELS...THE GFS AND EC...SUGGEST AT LEAST
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SPLITTY NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH
PRESSURE IN QUITE SOME TIME...MODELS ARE LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REGION. AS A RESULT...POPS WERE GENERALLY KEPT
IN THE 2O TO 50 PERCENT RANGE. WITH THAT SAID...THERE IS A BIT OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA
SO THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
AT THIS POINT...THUNDER WORDING WAS PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL
OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS.

ALL IN ALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL THIS WEEK
THAN IN RECENT DAYS. /NEUMAN

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...GFS...DGEX...AND ECMWF ALL SHOW A UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ON-SHORE ON FRIDAY... TRANSITIONING OUR AREA TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT LOWER LEVELS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PROGRESS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY ENDING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE ONSHORE TO OUR NORTH ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...BRIEFLY BRINGING BACK EASTERLY WINDS
WHICH WILL WARM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THOUGH THAT A WEAK...DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
WHICH WILL SERVE TO SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. THE
WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL BRING IN MARINE AIR WHICH WILL SLIGHTLY COOL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...ONSHORE FLOW NOW INCREASING ACROSS REGION...MAINLY IN
FAR SOUTH INTERIOR WHERE GUSTY W TO SW WINDS ARE BLOWING AT
CORVALLIS AND EUGENE. COASTAL AREAS HAVE WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR CIGS
WITH POCKETS OF IFR CIGS. WITH UPPER LOW OFF S OREGON COAST...
THE DECK ALONG THE COAST WILL REMAIN BROKEN...BUT SHOULD SOLIDIFY
LATER TONIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH GOOD PART OF TUE. FURTHER
INLAND... CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR TONIGHT...THOUGH WILL HAVE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW MVFR TO S OF KSLE FROM 12Z TO 18Z TUE.
WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR TUE NIGHT FOR WIDESPREAD CIGS INLAND.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TONIGHT AND TUE AS VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS
DRIFT OVERHEAD IN THE S TO SW FLOW ALOFT.    ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH CHANGE. WEAK LOW PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL
MAINTAIN A S TO SW WIND FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT GENERALLY 15
KT OR LESS. MIX OF WAVE TRAINS WITH VARYING PERIODS...BUT MAJORITY
ARE FROM THE W TO NW AND RUNNING AT 4 TO 6 FT.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH ANOTHER
THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW CALIF. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
N WINDS TO THE WATERS...WITH SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR ZONE 602-ZONE
     603-ZONE 604-ZONE 605-ZONE 606-ZONE 607-ZONE 608.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR ZONE 604-ZONE
     660.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 160331 CCB
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
831 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT WILDFIRE WILL IMPACT MOST OF NW
OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRUSH THE REGION TONIGHT...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THIS TROUGH
WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN OF LOW MARINE CLOUDS TO THE AREA...AND HELP
COOL TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. A WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY REBUILD FRIDAY WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
RETURNING NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE...INCREASING SW FLOW IS IMPACTING THE
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS EVENING AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES LIFTING NORTH TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. GUSTY SW WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO DROP THIS EVENING. HAVE BEEN WATCHING FOR HOW DENSE THE
MARINE STRATUS WOULD BE GETTING AT NEWPORT THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
BE A GOOD INDICATION FOR HOW MUCH WILL SPILL INTO THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECTING THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY SEEING
SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AS SW FLOW PERSISTS...BUT RAW
MODEL AND MOS GUIDANCE IS STILL NOT JUMPING ON A STRONG MARINE PUSH
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE VALLEY TONIGHT.

WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT THREAT FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH IN THE
WAY OF LIGHTNING...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRIKE OR TWO AS THE
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES FURTHER NORTH. /27

SOUTHWEST WINDS SPILLING THROUGH THE COAST RANGE GAPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR OUT SOME
OF THE SMOKE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 36 PIT FIRE BURNING SE OF ESTACADA
OREGON TONIGHT. STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY SHOULD ALSO ASSIST IN
MOST SMOKE SPREADING EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
NONETHELESS...LIGHT DOWN VALLEY WINDS WILL LIKELY ALLOW THICK SMOKE
AND AIR QUALITY ISSUES TO PERSIST IN NEARBY TOWNS LIKE ESTACADA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 140W AND 35N WILL APPROACH THE WEST
COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE
DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO
SPLIT FROM THE MEAN FLOW AND DIVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS OF
NOW...THE MAIN GLOBAL MODELS...THE GFS AND EC...SUGGEST AT LEAST
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SPLITTY NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH
PRESSURE IN QUITE SOME TIME...MODELS ARE LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REGION. AS A RESULT...POPS WERE GENERALLY KEPT
IN THE 2O TO 50 PERCENT RANGE. WITH THAT SAID...THERE IS A BIT OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA
SO THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
AT THIS POINT...THUNDER WORDING WAS PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL
OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS.

ALL IN ALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL THIS WEEK
THAN IN RECENT DAYS. /NEUMAN

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...GFS...DGEX...AND ECMWF ALL SHOW A UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ON-SHORE ON FRIDAY... TRANSITIONING OUR AREA TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT LOWER LEVELS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PROGRESS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY ENDING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE ONSHORE TO OUR NORTH ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...BRIEFLY BRINGING BACK EASTERLY WINDS
WHICH WILL WARM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THOUGH THAT A WEAK...DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
WHICH WILL SERVE TO SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. THE
WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL BRING IN MARINE AIR WHICH WILL SLIGHTLY COOL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...ONSHORE FLOW NOW INCREASING ACROSS REGION...MAINLY IN
FAR SOUTH INTERIOR WHERE GUSTY W TO SW WINDS ARE BLOWING AT
CORVALLIS AND EUGENE. COASTAL AREAS HAVE WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR CIGS
WITH POCKETS OF IFR CIGS. WITH UPPER LOW OFF S OREGON COAST...
THE DECK ALONG THE COAST WILL REMAIN BROKEN...BUT SHOULD SOLIDIFY
LATER TONIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH GOOD PART OF TUE. FURTHER
INLAND... CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR TONIGHT...THOUGH WILL HAVE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW MVFR TO S OF KSLE FROM 12Z TO 18Z TUE.
WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR TUE NIGHT FOR WIDESPREAD CIGS INLAND.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TONIGHT AND TUE AS VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS
DRIFT OVERHEAD IN THE S TO SW FLOW ALOFT.    ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH CHANGE. WEAK LOW PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL
MAINTAIN A S TO SW WIND FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT GENERALLY 15
KT OR LESS. MIX OF WAVE TRAINS WITH VARYING PERIODS...BUT MAJORITY
ARE FROM THE W TO NW AND RUNNING AT 4 TO 6 FT.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH ANOTHER
THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW CALIF. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
N WINDS TO THE WATERS...WITH SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR ZONE 602-ZONE
     603-ZONE 604-ZONE 605-ZONE 606-ZONE 607-ZONE 608.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR ZONE 604-ZONE
     660.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 160322
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
820 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE WILL BRING MARINE CLOUDS TO
THE COAST AND PARTS OF THE INTERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH
COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. A THREAT OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT
MOVES ONSHORE WITH THE BEST SHOWER CHANCE ON THURSDAY. REBUILDING
HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT THIS WEEKEND SHOULD PRODUCE MORE WARM SUNNY
AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE WAS OVER THE PACIFIC NW INTERIOR THIS
EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WA. AN UPPER TROUGH WAS IN
THE VICINITY OF 140W WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH
IT. THE FIRST WAS MOVING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN OREGON. GOOD
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BUT LIMITED MOISTURE. AT THIS HOUR...IT WAS
NOTHING BUT SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS THOUGH KEEPING AN EYE ON ANY
SHORT-FUSED DEVELOPING HIGH LEVEL CONVECTION.

THIS SHORTWAVE HAS HAD SURFACE REFLECTION THOUGH. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW HAS BEGUN AND STRATUS/FOG MOVING UP THE OREGON COAST TODAY WAS
CONTINUING UP THE WA COAST THIS EVENING. EXPECT IT TO PENETRATE INTO
AT LEAST THE SOUTH SOUND THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP - PERHAPS AS FAR
AS SEATAC AIRPORT - AND PARTS OF THE STRAIT TUE MORNING. USING THE
OLD PHRASE - STRATUS COMING AT US. THE COOLER MARINE AIR MASS WILL
ALSO KNOCK HIGH TEMPS TUE DOWN ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES IN MANY
PLACES...VERY NOTICEABLE AND FOR SOME - QUITE REFRESHING.

THE 00Z PROGS IN THUS FAR CONTINUE THE TREND OF TRACKING THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE AND UPPER TROUGH ONSHORE WED AND THU FOR THE FIRST REAL
THREAT OF SHOWERS IN ABOUT TWO WEEKS. EVEN COOLER MAX TEMPS TOO.
FORECAST HERE IS ON TRACK.

TRIVIA NEWS BIT - AS OF TODAY...KSEA HAS HIT 80 DEGREES OR BETTER
45 TIMES THIS YEAR...NOW TIED FOR THIRD MOST NUMBER OF DAYS WITH
1961. THE RECORD IS 47 DAYS IN 1958. NUMBER 2 IS 46 DAYS IN 1967.
COULD 80 BE HIT AGAIN THIS WEEKEND? STAY TUNED. BUEHNER

.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ON FRIDAY THERE WILL BE SOME
RESIDUAL SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE GFS SHOWING HEIGHTS IN THE MID 580S BUT
THE EURO PUSHING NEARLY TO 590DM. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH AT LEAST THE LOW 80S IN MANY PLACES BY
SUNDAY. THE GFS HAS A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING BY MONDAY SO LOWER
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BURKE

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF FOG AND MARINE STRATUS ARE SPREADING NORTH
ALONG THE WA COAST THIS EVENING AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE CHEHALIS GAP AND SHOULD MAKE IT INTO
PUGET SOUND AROUND DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...THE RIDGE IS MOVING EAST
AND SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY...GIVING SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE IN THE MID LEVELS
THROUGH TUESDAY AND AT THE LEAST SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM OREGON
WILL SPREAD INTO WRN WA. THE BEST CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
IN THE CASCADES.

KSEA...LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING CIRRUS...THEN DEVELOPING ONSHORE
FLOW WILL GIVE A SLY BREEZE TUESDAY. SEVERAL HOURS OF MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG AREA A GOOD BET TUESDAY. TAF LOOKS PRETTY GOOD NO BIG
CHANGES EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE COAST AS
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THIS EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE STRAIGHT OF JUAN DE FUCA THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLIES LIKELY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GRADIENTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WED
THRU FRI.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 160322
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
820 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE WILL BRING MARINE CLOUDS TO
THE COAST AND PARTS OF THE INTERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH
COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. A THREAT OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT
MOVES ONSHORE WITH THE BEST SHOWER CHANCE ON THURSDAY. REBUILDING
HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT THIS WEEKEND SHOULD PRODUCE MORE WARM SUNNY
AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE WAS OVER THE PACIFIC NW INTERIOR THIS
EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WA. AN UPPER TROUGH WAS IN
THE VICINITY OF 140W WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH
IT. THE FIRST WAS MOVING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN OREGON. GOOD
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BUT LIMITED MOISTURE. AT THIS HOUR...IT WAS
NOTHING BUT SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS THOUGH KEEPING AN EYE ON ANY
SHORT-FUSED DEVELOPING HIGH LEVEL CONVECTION.

THIS SHORTWAVE HAS HAD SURFACE REFLECTION THOUGH. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW HAS BEGUN AND STRATUS/FOG MOVING UP THE OREGON COAST TODAY WAS
CONTINUING UP THE WA COAST THIS EVENING. EXPECT IT TO PENETRATE INTO
AT LEAST THE SOUTH SOUND THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP - PERHAPS AS FAR
AS SEATAC AIRPORT - AND PARTS OF THE STRAIT TUE MORNING. USING THE
OLD PHRASE - STRATUS COMING AT US. THE COOLER MARINE AIR MASS WILL
ALSO KNOCK HIGH TEMPS TUE DOWN ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES IN MANY
PLACES...VERY NOTICEABLE AND FOR SOME - QUITE REFRESHING.

THE 00Z PROGS IN THUS FAR CONTINUE THE TREND OF TRACKING THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE AND UPPER TROUGH ONSHORE WED AND THU FOR THE FIRST REAL
THREAT OF SHOWERS IN ABOUT TWO WEEKS. EVEN COOLER MAX TEMPS TOO.
FORECAST HERE IS ON TRACK.

TRIVIA NEWS BIT - AS OF TODAY...KSEA HAS HIT 80 DEGREES OR BETTER
45 TIMES THIS YEAR...NOW TIED FOR THIRD MOST NUMBER OF DAYS WITH
1961. THE RECORD IS 47 DAYS IN 1958. NUMBER 2 IS 46 DAYS IN 1967.
COULD 80 BE HIT AGAIN THIS WEEKEND? STAY TUNED. BUEHNER

.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ON FRIDAY THERE WILL BE SOME
RESIDUAL SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE GFS SHOWING HEIGHTS IN THE MID 580S BUT
THE EURO PUSHING NEARLY TO 590DM. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH AT LEAST THE LOW 80S IN MANY PLACES BY
SUNDAY. THE GFS HAS A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING BY MONDAY SO LOWER
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BURKE

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF FOG AND MARINE STRATUS ARE SPREADING NORTH
ALONG THE WA COAST THIS EVENING AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE CHEHALIS GAP AND SHOULD MAKE IT INTO
PUGET SOUND AROUND DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...THE RIDGE IS MOVING EAST
AND SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY...GIVING SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE IN THE MID LEVELS
THROUGH TUESDAY AND AT THE LEAST SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM OREGON
WILL SPREAD INTO WRN WA. THE BEST CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
IN THE CASCADES.

KSEA...LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING CIRRUS...THEN DEVELOPING ONSHORE
FLOW WILL GIVE A SLY BREEZE TUESDAY. SEVERAL HOURS OF MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG AREA A GOOD BET TUESDAY. TAF LOOKS PRETTY GOOD NO BIG
CHANGES EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE COAST AS
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THIS EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE STRAIGHT OF JUAN DE FUCA THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLIES LIKELY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GRADIENTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WED
THRU FRI.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KOTX 152330
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
430 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm temperatures will be across the Inland Northwest
through Wednesday as high pressure remains over the region. A weak
cold front will likely arrive on Thursday cooling temperatures
closer to normal. There will also be a chance for light mountain showers
Thursday into Friday morning with the passing front. Warm and dry
conditions will likely return for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Tuesday: High pressure will be over the region for the
next 24 hours, although it will weaken slightly as a shortwave off
the Oregon coast pivots into it. A band of high level moisture
associated with the shortwave will sweep in from the south
overnight into Tuesday. The lift is weak especially as the
shortwave falls apart as it tracks into the upper ridge axis
position. Most of this moisture will be above 10k ft, so the
threat of any precipitation will be minor. But the best if any
chance will be across the Blue mountains Tuesday morning and then
into central ID panhandle by Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise
anticipate some areas of virga or isolated sprinkles with the
cloud band across southeast Washington and southern Idaho
panhandle. Meanwhile, low level temperatures will continue to
rise, about 2 to 4 degrees warmer on Tuesday. This would make
Tuesday the warmest day of the week. Winds will be light and
mostly east/northeast tonight into Tuesday morning, with southwest
winds creeping into the southern Columbia Basin and Palouse by
Tuesday afternoon. /rfox

Tuesday night through Thursday night...In the big picture a
splitting trough will move into the eastern Pacific by Tuesday
afternoon. By Wednesday afternoon the southern portion of the
split closes into a cut-off low with the best moisture and
dynamics staying well south of our area. What this will do is drag
a weakening trough through southern B.C. Wednesday night and
Thursday with best forcing staying in central B.C. There will be
some mid level moisture that will move into the area Wednesday
night and Thursday.

For Tuesday night the models keep showing a weak wave moving
out of northeast Oregon and just brushing our southeast zones.
I kept some very low end pops through the night, but am far from
impressed and thinking at this just may be some increasing mid-
level clouds.

Wednesday night through Thursday night...Slight chance to chance
pops over the Cascades Wednesday night...then the chance for
precipitation will track across the northern mountains and Idaho
Panhandle for Thursday and Thursday night. Precipitation as mainly
showers... however there appears to be enough mid level
instability to introduce a few lighting strikes for the far
northeast mountains and Idaho Panhandle zones late in the day
Thursday. Confidence is much better for some light shower than any
lightning. Any precipitation should be a tenth or less. A slight
up tick in the southwest winds can also be expected Thursday
afternoon with sustained winds around 10mph. /Tobin

Friday afternoon through Tuesday morning: The exiting mid-week
trough will be replaced by another ridge of high pressure for the
weekend. While the ridge looks to keep things pleasant all
weekend, another trough will approach early next week.

The ridge should bring warming temperatures, with afternoon
readings topping out 10 to 15 degrees above normal (widespread
80s). The approach of another trough off the Pacific Northwest
coastline should begin to bring those temperatures back towards
normal, but will still be 3 to 7 degrees above (mid/upper 70s). ty

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A warm and dry air mass will remain over eastern
Washington and north Idaho through 00z Wednesday with light
winds. Smoke from fires near Mt Hood and in the basin will result
in scattered high smoke over a large portion of the Inland
Northwest. High clouds from a disturbance moving north along the
coast will result in increasing high clouds through the night.
There will be a small chance for showers near the Cascades and to
a lesser extent the Blue mountains and southern Id panhandle.
/Tobin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  85  56  83  57  79 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Coeur d`Alene  51  85  52  83  53  78 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Pullman        50  84  53  84  53  79 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       60  90  61  89  61  84 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       46  90  50  83  51  81 /   0   0  10  10  20  20
Sandpoint      41  83  47  78  48  75 /   0  10  10  10  10  30
Kellogg        50  83  54  80  53  75 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Moses Lake     51  87  56  86  58  84 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      56  86  61  85  62  81 /   0   0  10  10  20  30
Omak           48  88  55  86  57  82 /   0   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 152330
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
430 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm temperatures will be across the Inland Northwest
through Wednesday as high pressure remains over the region. A weak
cold front will likely arrive on Thursday cooling temperatures
closer to normal. There will also be a chance for light mountain showers
Thursday into Friday morning with the passing front. Warm and dry
conditions will likely return for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Tuesday: High pressure will be over the region for the
next 24 hours, although it will weaken slightly as a shortwave off
the Oregon coast pivots into it. A band of high level moisture
associated with the shortwave will sweep in from the south
overnight into Tuesday. The lift is weak especially as the
shortwave falls apart as it tracks into the upper ridge axis
position. Most of this moisture will be above 10k ft, so the
threat of any precipitation will be minor. But the best if any
chance will be across the Blue mountains Tuesday morning and then
into central ID panhandle by Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise
anticipate some areas of virga or isolated sprinkles with the
cloud band across southeast Washington and southern Idaho
panhandle. Meanwhile, low level temperatures will continue to
rise, about 2 to 4 degrees warmer on Tuesday. This would make
Tuesday the warmest day of the week. Winds will be light and
mostly east/northeast tonight into Tuesday morning, with southwest
winds creeping into the southern Columbia Basin and Palouse by
Tuesday afternoon. /rfox

Tuesday night through Thursday night...In the big picture a
splitting trough will move into the eastern Pacific by Tuesday
afternoon. By Wednesday afternoon the southern portion of the
split closes into a cut-off low with the best moisture and
dynamics staying well south of our area. What this will do is drag
a weakening trough through southern B.C. Wednesday night and
Thursday with best forcing staying in central B.C. There will be
some mid level moisture that will move into the area Wednesday
night and Thursday.

For Tuesday night the models keep showing a weak wave moving
out of northeast Oregon and just brushing our southeast zones.
I kept some very low end pops through the night, but am far from
impressed and thinking at this just may be some increasing mid-
level clouds.

Wednesday night through Thursday night...Slight chance to chance
pops over the Cascades Wednesday night...then the chance for
precipitation will track across the northern mountains and Idaho
Panhandle for Thursday and Thursday night. Precipitation as mainly
showers... however there appears to be enough mid level
instability to introduce a few lighting strikes for the far
northeast mountains and Idaho Panhandle zones late in the day
Thursday. Confidence is much better for some light shower than any
lightning. Any precipitation should be a tenth or less. A slight
up tick in the southwest winds can also be expected Thursday
afternoon with sustained winds around 10mph. /Tobin

Friday afternoon through Tuesday morning: The exiting mid-week
trough will be replaced by another ridge of high pressure for the
weekend. While the ridge looks to keep things pleasant all
weekend, another trough will approach early next week.

The ridge should bring warming temperatures, with afternoon
readings topping out 10 to 15 degrees above normal (widespread
80s). The approach of another trough off the Pacific Northwest
coastline should begin to bring those temperatures back towards
normal, but will still be 3 to 7 degrees above (mid/upper 70s). ty

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A warm and dry air mass will remain over eastern
Washington and north Idaho through 00z Wednesday with light
winds. Smoke from fires near Mt Hood and in the basin will result
in scattered high smoke over a large portion of the Inland
Northwest. High clouds from a disturbance moving north along the
coast will result in increasing high clouds through the night.
There will be a small chance for showers near the Cascades and to
a lesser extent the Blue mountains and southern Id panhandle.
/Tobin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  85  56  83  57  79 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Coeur d`Alene  51  85  52  83  53  78 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Pullman        50  84  53  84  53  79 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       60  90  61  89  61  84 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       46  90  50  83  51  81 /   0   0  10  10  20  20
Sandpoint      41  83  47  78  48  75 /   0  10  10  10  10  30
Kellogg        50  83  54  80  53  75 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Moses Lake     51  87  56  86  58  84 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      56  86  61  85  62  81 /   0   0  10  10  20  30
Omak           48  88  55  86  57  82 /   0   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 152228 CCB
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
320 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT WILDFIRE WILL IMPACT MOST OF NW
OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRUSH THE REGION TONIGHT...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THIS TROUGH
WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN OF LOW MARINE CLOUDS TO THE AREA...AND HELP
COOL TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. A WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY REBUILD FRIDAY WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
RETURNING NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE SUGGESTED THERE
WAS A CHANCE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. BASED ON
SATELLITE EXTRAPOLATION AND LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...THUNDER CHANCES
CONTINUE TO APPEAR LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN FORECASTING ELEVATED CONVECTION...WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MENTION OF DRY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST GIVEN
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

A WIND REVERSAL IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTHWARD UP THE
COAST...AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...WHICH IS NOT ATYPICAL. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THE THERMAL TROUGH CURRENTLY LIES DIRECTLY OVER THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHWARD UP
THE COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD SUPPORT A DECENTLY STRONG
SOUTHWEST MARINE PUSH...WHICH OFTEN RESULTS IN MARINE CLOUDS SPILLING
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. AS A RESULT...SKY COVER WAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE IDEA OF MORNING CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO LATE AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...RAW MODEL AND MOS GUIDANCE IS NOT TOO KEEN ON
THIS IDEA SO UNCERTAINTY EXISTS.

ALSO OF CONCERN ARE THE AREAS OF SMOKE ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE 36 PIT FIRE
BURNING SOUTHEAST OF ESTACADA OREGON. VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
IMPACTED IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP LOW
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY. NONETHELESS...AIR QUALITY
ISSUES EXIST SO SEE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED EARLIER
TODAY FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. SOUTHWEST WINDS SPILLING THROUGH
THE COAST RANGE GAPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
VALLEY SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR OUT SOME OF THE SMOKE TONIGHT. STRONGER
WESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY SHOULD ALSO ASSIST IN MOST SMOKE SPREADING
EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. NONETHELESS...LIGHT DOWN
VALLEY WINDS WILL LIKELY ALLOW THICK SMOKE AND AIR QUALITY ISSUES TO
PERSIST IN NEARBY TOWNS LIKE ESTACADA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 140W AND 35N WILL APPROACH THE WEST
COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE
DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO
SPLIT FROM THE MEAN FLOW AND DIVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS OF
NOW...THE MAIN GLOBAL MODELS...THE GFS AND EC...SUGGEST AT LEAST
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SPLITTY NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH
PRESSURE IN QUITE SOME TIME...MODELS ARE LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REGION. AS A RESULT...POPS WERE GENERALLY KEPT
IN THE 2O TO 50 PERCENT RANGE. WITH THAT SAID...THERE IS A BIT OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA
SO THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
AT THIS POINT...THUNDER WORDING WAS PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL
OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS.

ALL IN ALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL THIS WEEK
THAN IN RECENT DAYS. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GFS...DGEX...AND ECMWF ALL SHOW
A UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY. THE SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ON-SHORE ON
FRIDAY...TRANSITIONING OUR AREA TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT LOWER
LEVELS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PROGRESS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY
SATURDAY ENDING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE ONSHORE TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...BRIEFLY BRINGING BACK EASTERLY WINDS WHICH WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THOUGH THAT A
WEAK...DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH WILL
SERVE TO SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. THE WESTERLY
COMPONENT WILL BRING IN MARINE AIR WHICH WILL SLIGHTLY COOL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EXCEPT FOR IFR MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS FROM SMOKE RELATED TO THE OREGON
WILDFIRES. THE LOW MARINE CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT ONSHORE WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO THE ALL OF THE COASTAL AIRPORTS. CIGS
SHOULD LIFT LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW BRUSHES BY WHICH WOULD
ALLOW THE MARINE CLOUDS TO PUSH FURTHER INLAND. THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR INLAND THEY WILL GO...BUT KCVO AND KEUG
ARE THE INLAND AIRPORTS WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR LOW MVFR CIGS
AFT 10Z. DO NOT THINK FLIGHT RESTRICTING CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT IN TO
THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THE MARINE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY STAY PARKED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH TUE...BUT ANY
LOW CLOUDS INLAND SHOULD CLEAR EARLY TUE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE AIRPORT
THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING. SMOKE MAY
CREATE
A SCATTERED CIG FROM 3 TO 5 KFT TONIGHT WHEN THE WINDS EASE AFT
05Z. TJ

&&

.MARINE...S-SW WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW WILL BRUSH PAST THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. A STRONGER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW TUE AND DRAG A
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WED AND THU.

THESE LOWS ARE PRODUCING A COUPLE OF LONGER-PERIOD SW SWELLS THAT
WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE...A SERIES
OF LOWS MOVING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL GENERATE NW SWELLS
THROUGH THE WATERS. THE DIFFERENT SWELL TRAINS WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHERN OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON WATERS SIMULTANEOUSLY TUE
THROUGH THU RESULTING IN SEAS FROM MULTIPLE DIRECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS THU NIGHT AND FRI. A
THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE OREGON
WATERS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE SW SWELLS WILL DROP OFF BY THURSDAY AND A 5 TO 7 FT NW SWELL
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR ZONE 602-ZONE
603- ZONE 604-ZONE 605-ZONE 606-ZONE 607-ZONE 608.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR ZONE 604-ZONE
660.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 152228 CCB
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
320 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT WILDFIRE WILL IMPACT MOST OF NW
OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRUSH THE REGION TONIGHT...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THIS TROUGH
WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN OF LOW MARINE CLOUDS TO THE AREA...AND HELP
COOL TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. A WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY REBUILD FRIDAY WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
RETURNING NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE SUGGESTED THERE
WAS A CHANCE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. BASED ON
SATELLITE EXTRAPOLATION AND LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...THUNDER CHANCES
CONTINUE TO APPEAR LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN FORECASTING ELEVATED CONVECTION...WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MENTION OF DRY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST GIVEN
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

A WIND REVERSAL IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTHWARD UP THE
COAST...AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...WHICH IS NOT ATYPICAL. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THE THERMAL TROUGH CURRENTLY LIES DIRECTLY OVER THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHWARD UP
THE COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD SUPPORT A DECENTLY STRONG
SOUTHWEST MARINE PUSH...WHICH OFTEN RESULTS IN MARINE CLOUDS SPILLING
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. AS A RESULT...SKY COVER WAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE IDEA OF MORNING CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO LATE AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...RAW MODEL AND MOS GUIDANCE IS NOT TOO KEEN ON
THIS IDEA SO UNCERTAINTY EXISTS.

ALSO OF CONCERN ARE THE AREAS OF SMOKE ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE 36 PIT FIRE
BURNING SOUTHEAST OF ESTACADA OREGON. VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
IMPACTED IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP LOW
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY. NONETHELESS...AIR QUALITY
ISSUES EXIST SO SEE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED EARLIER
TODAY FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. SOUTHWEST WINDS SPILLING THROUGH
THE COAST RANGE GAPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
VALLEY SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR OUT SOME OF THE SMOKE TONIGHT. STRONGER
WESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY SHOULD ALSO ASSIST IN MOST SMOKE SPREADING
EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. NONETHELESS...LIGHT DOWN
VALLEY WINDS WILL LIKELY ALLOW THICK SMOKE AND AIR QUALITY ISSUES TO
PERSIST IN NEARBY TOWNS LIKE ESTACADA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 140W AND 35N WILL APPROACH THE WEST
COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE
DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO
SPLIT FROM THE MEAN FLOW AND DIVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS OF
NOW...THE MAIN GLOBAL MODELS...THE GFS AND EC...SUGGEST AT LEAST
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SPLITTY NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH
PRESSURE IN QUITE SOME TIME...MODELS ARE LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REGION. AS A RESULT...POPS WERE GENERALLY KEPT
IN THE 2O TO 50 PERCENT RANGE. WITH THAT SAID...THERE IS A BIT OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA
SO THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
AT THIS POINT...THUNDER WORDING WAS PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL
OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS.

ALL IN ALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL THIS WEEK
THAN IN RECENT DAYS. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GFS...DGEX...AND ECMWF ALL SHOW
A UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY. THE SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ON-SHORE ON
FRIDAY...TRANSITIONING OUR AREA TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT LOWER
LEVELS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PROGRESS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY
SATURDAY ENDING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE ONSHORE TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...BRIEFLY BRINGING BACK EASTERLY WINDS WHICH WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THOUGH THAT A
WEAK...DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH WILL
SERVE TO SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. THE WESTERLY
COMPONENT WILL BRING IN MARINE AIR WHICH WILL SLIGHTLY COOL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EXCEPT FOR IFR MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS FROM SMOKE RELATED TO THE OREGON
WILDFIRES. THE LOW MARINE CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT ONSHORE WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO THE ALL OF THE COASTAL AIRPORTS. CIGS
SHOULD LIFT LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW BRUSHES BY WHICH WOULD
ALLOW THE MARINE CLOUDS TO PUSH FURTHER INLAND. THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR INLAND THEY WILL GO...BUT KCVO AND KEUG
ARE THE INLAND AIRPORTS WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR LOW MVFR CIGS
AFT 10Z. DO NOT THINK FLIGHT RESTRICTING CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT IN TO
THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THE MARINE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY STAY PARKED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH TUE...BUT ANY
LOW CLOUDS INLAND SHOULD CLEAR EARLY TUE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE AIRPORT
THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING. SMOKE MAY
CREATE
A SCATTERED CIG FROM 3 TO 5 KFT TONIGHT WHEN THE WINDS EASE AFT
05Z. TJ

&&

.MARINE...S-SW WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW WILL BRUSH PAST THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. A STRONGER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW TUE AND DRAG A
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WED AND THU.

THESE LOWS ARE PRODUCING A COUPLE OF LONGER-PERIOD SW SWELLS THAT
WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE...A SERIES
OF LOWS MOVING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL GENERATE NW SWELLS
THROUGH THE WATERS. THE DIFFERENT SWELL TRAINS WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHERN OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON WATERS SIMULTANEOUSLY TUE
THROUGH THU RESULTING IN SEAS FROM MULTIPLE DIRECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS THU NIGHT AND FRI. A
THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE OREGON
WATERS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE SW SWELLS WILL DROP OFF BY THURSDAY AND A 5 TO 7 FT NW SWELL
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR ZONE 602-ZONE
603- ZONE 604-ZONE 605-ZONE 606-ZONE 607-ZONE 608.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR ZONE 604-ZONE
660.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 152228 CCB
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
320 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT WILDFIRE WILL IMPACT MOST OF NW
OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRUSH THE REGION TONIGHT...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THIS TROUGH
WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN OF LOW MARINE CLOUDS TO THE AREA...AND HELP
COOL TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. A WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY REBUILD FRIDAY WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
RETURNING NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE SUGGESTED THERE
WAS A CHANCE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. BASED ON
SATELLITE EXTRAPOLATION AND LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...THUNDER CHANCES
CONTINUE TO APPEAR LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN FORECASTING ELEVATED CONVECTION...WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MENTION OF DRY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST GIVEN
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

A WIND REVERSAL IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTHWARD UP THE
COAST...AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...WHICH IS NOT ATYPICAL. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THE THERMAL TROUGH CURRENTLY LIES DIRECTLY OVER THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHWARD UP
THE COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD SUPPORT A DECENTLY STRONG
SOUTHWEST MARINE PUSH...WHICH OFTEN RESULTS IN MARINE CLOUDS SPILLING
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. AS A RESULT...SKY COVER WAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE IDEA OF MORNING CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO LATE AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...RAW MODEL AND MOS GUIDANCE IS NOT TOO KEEN ON
THIS IDEA SO UNCERTAINTY EXISTS.

ALSO OF CONCERN ARE THE AREAS OF SMOKE ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE 36 PIT FIRE
BURNING SOUTHEAST OF ESTACADA OREGON. VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
IMPACTED IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP LOW
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY. NONETHELESS...AIR QUALITY
ISSUES EXIST SO SEE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED EARLIER
TODAY FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. SOUTHWEST WINDS SPILLING THROUGH
THE COAST RANGE GAPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
VALLEY SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR OUT SOME OF THE SMOKE TONIGHT. STRONGER
WESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY SHOULD ALSO ASSIST IN MOST SMOKE SPREADING
EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. NONETHELESS...LIGHT DOWN
VALLEY WINDS WILL LIKELY ALLOW THICK SMOKE AND AIR QUALITY ISSUES TO
PERSIST IN NEARBY TOWNS LIKE ESTACADA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 140W AND 35N WILL APPROACH THE WEST
COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE
DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO
SPLIT FROM THE MEAN FLOW AND DIVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS OF
NOW...THE MAIN GLOBAL MODELS...THE GFS AND EC...SUGGEST AT LEAST
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SPLITTY NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH
PRESSURE IN QUITE SOME TIME...MODELS ARE LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REGION. AS A RESULT...POPS WERE GENERALLY KEPT
IN THE 2O TO 50 PERCENT RANGE. WITH THAT SAID...THERE IS A BIT OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA
SO THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
AT THIS POINT...THUNDER WORDING WAS PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL
OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS.

ALL IN ALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL THIS WEEK
THAN IN RECENT DAYS. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GFS...DGEX...AND ECMWF ALL SHOW
A UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY. THE SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ON-SHORE ON
FRIDAY...TRANSITIONING OUR AREA TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT LOWER
LEVELS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PROGRESS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY
SATURDAY ENDING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE ONSHORE TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...BRIEFLY BRINGING BACK EASTERLY WINDS WHICH WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THOUGH THAT A
WEAK...DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH WILL
SERVE TO SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. THE WESTERLY
COMPONENT WILL BRING IN MARINE AIR WHICH WILL SLIGHTLY COOL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EXCEPT FOR IFR MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS FROM SMOKE RELATED TO THE OREGON
WILDFIRES. THE LOW MARINE CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT ONSHORE WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO THE ALL OF THE COASTAL AIRPORTS. CIGS
SHOULD LIFT LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW BRUSHES BY WHICH WOULD
ALLOW THE MARINE CLOUDS TO PUSH FURTHER INLAND. THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR INLAND THEY WILL GO...BUT KCVO AND KEUG
ARE THE INLAND AIRPORTS WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR LOW MVFR CIGS
AFT 10Z. DO NOT THINK FLIGHT RESTRICTING CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT IN TO
THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THE MARINE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY STAY PARKED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH TUE...BUT ANY
LOW CLOUDS INLAND SHOULD CLEAR EARLY TUE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE AIRPORT
THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING. SMOKE MAY
CREATE
A SCATTERED CIG FROM 3 TO 5 KFT TONIGHT WHEN THE WINDS EASE AFT
05Z. TJ

&&

.MARINE...S-SW WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW WILL BRUSH PAST THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. A STRONGER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW TUE AND DRAG A
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WED AND THU.

THESE LOWS ARE PRODUCING A COUPLE OF LONGER-PERIOD SW SWELLS THAT
WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE...A SERIES
OF LOWS MOVING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL GENERATE NW SWELLS
THROUGH THE WATERS. THE DIFFERENT SWELL TRAINS WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHERN OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON WATERS SIMULTANEOUSLY TUE
THROUGH THU RESULTING IN SEAS FROM MULTIPLE DIRECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS THU NIGHT AND FRI. A
THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE OREGON
WATERS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE SW SWELLS WILL DROP OFF BY THURSDAY AND A 5 TO 7 FT NW SWELL
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR ZONE 602-ZONE
603- ZONE 604-ZONE 605-ZONE 606-ZONE 607-ZONE 608.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR ZONE 604-ZONE
660.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 152228 CCB
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
320 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT WILDFIRE WILL IMPACT MOST OF NW
OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRUSH THE REGION TONIGHT...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THIS TROUGH
WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN OF LOW MARINE CLOUDS TO THE AREA...AND HELP
COOL TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. A WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY REBUILD FRIDAY WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
RETURNING NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE SUGGESTED THERE
WAS A CHANCE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. BASED ON
SATELLITE EXTRAPOLATION AND LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...THUNDER CHANCES
CONTINUE TO APPEAR LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN FORECASTING ELEVATED CONVECTION...WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MENTION OF DRY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST GIVEN
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

A WIND REVERSAL IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTHWARD UP THE
COAST...AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...WHICH IS NOT ATYPICAL. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THE THERMAL TROUGH CURRENTLY LIES DIRECTLY OVER THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHWARD UP
THE COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD SUPPORT A DECENTLY STRONG
SOUTHWEST MARINE PUSH...WHICH OFTEN RESULTS IN MARINE CLOUDS SPILLING
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. AS A RESULT...SKY COVER WAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE IDEA OF MORNING CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO LATE AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...RAW MODEL AND MOS GUIDANCE IS NOT TOO KEEN ON
THIS IDEA SO UNCERTAINTY EXISTS.

ALSO OF CONCERN ARE THE AREAS OF SMOKE ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE 36 PIT FIRE
BURNING SOUTHEAST OF ESTACADA OREGON. VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
IMPACTED IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP LOW
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY. NONETHELESS...AIR QUALITY
ISSUES EXIST SO SEE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED EARLIER
TODAY FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. SOUTHWEST WINDS SPILLING THROUGH
THE COAST RANGE GAPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
VALLEY SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR OUT SOME OF THE SMOKE TONIGHT. STRONGER
WESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY SHOULD ALSO ASSIST IN MOST SMOKE SPREADING
EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. NONETHELESS...LIGHT DOWN
VALLEY WINDS WILL LIKELY ALLOW THICK SMOKE AND AIR QUALITY ISSUES TO
PERSIST IN NEARBY TOWNS LIKE ESTACADA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 140W AND 35N WILL APPROACH THE WEST
COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE
DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO
SPLIT FROM THE MEAN FLOW AND DIVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS OF
NOW...THE MAIN GLOBAL MODELS...THE GFS AND EC...SUGGEST AT LEAST
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SPLITTY NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH
PRESSURE IN QUITE SOME TIME...MODELS ARE LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REGION. AS A RESULT...POPS WERE GENERALLY KEPT
IN THE 2O TO 50 PERCENT RANGE. WITH THAT SAID...THERE IS A BIT OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA
SO THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
AT THIS POINT...THUNDER WORDING WAS PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL
OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS.

ALL IN ALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL THIS WEEK
THAN IN RECENT DAYS. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GFS...DGEX...AND ECMWF ALL SHOW
A UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY. THE SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ON-SHORE ON
FRIDAY...TRANSITIONING OUR AREA TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT LOWER
LEVELS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PROGRESS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY
SATURDAY ENDING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE ONSHORE TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...BRIEFLY BRINGING BACK EASTERLY WINDS WHICH WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THOUGH THAT A
WEAK...DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH WILL
SERVE TO SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. THE WESTERLY
COMPONENT WILL BRING IN MARINE AIR WHICH WILL SLIGHTLY COOL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EXCEPT FOR IFR MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS FROM SMOKE RELATED TO THE OREGON
WILDFIRES. THE LOW MARINE CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT ONSHORE WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO THE ALL OF THE COASTAL AIRPORTS. CIGS
SHOULD LIFT LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW BRUSHES BY WHICH WOULD
ALLOW THE MARINE CLOUDS TO PUSH FURTHER INLAND. THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR INLAND THEY WILL GO...BUT KCVO AND KEUG
ARE THE INLAND AIRPORTS WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR LOW MVFR CIGS
AFT 10Z. DO NOT THINK FLIGHT RESTRICTING CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT IN TO
THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THE MARINE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY STAY PARKED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH TUE...BUT ANY
LOW CLOUDS INLAND SHOULD CLEAR EARLY TUE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE AIRPORT
THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING. SMOKE MAY
CREATE
A SCATTERED CIG FROM 3 TO 5 KFT TONIGHT WHEN THE WINDS EASE AFT
05Z. TJ

&&

.MARINE...S-SW WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW WILL BRUSH PAST THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. A STRONGER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW TUE AND DRAG A
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WED AND THU.

THESE LOWS ARE PRODUCING A COUPLE OF LONGER-PERIOD SW SWELLS THAT
WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE...A SERIES
OF LOWS MOVING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL GENERATE NW SWELLS
THROUGH THE WATERS. THE DIFFERENT SWELL TRAINS WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHERN OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON WATERS SIMULTANEOUSLY TUE
THROUGH THU RESULTING IN SEAS FROM MULTIPLE DIRECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS THU NIGHT AND FRI. A
THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE OREGON
WATERS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE SW SWELLS WILL DROP OFF BY THURSDAY AND A 5 TO 7 FT NW SWELL
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR ZONE 602-ZONE
603- ZONE 604-ZONE 605-ZONE 606-ZONE 607-ZONE 608.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR ZONE 604-ZONE
660.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 152223 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
320 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT WILDFIRE WILL IMPACT MOST OF NW
OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRUSH THE REGION TONIGHT...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THIS TROUGH
WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN OF LOW MARINE CLOUDS TO THE AREA...AND HELP
COOL TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. A WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY REBUILD FRIDAY WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
RETURNING NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED THERE WAS A
CHANCE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. BASED ON SATELLITE
EXTRAPOLATION AND LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...THUNDER CHANCES CONTINUE
TO APPEAR LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE INHERENT
UNCERTAINTY IN FORECASTING ELEVATED CONVECTION...WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE MENTION OF DRY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN.

A WIND REVERSAL IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTHWARD UP THE
COAST...AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...WHICH IS NOT ATYPICAL. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THE THERMAL TROUGH CURRENTLY LIES DIRECTLY OVER THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHWARD UP
THE COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD SUPPORT A DECENTLY STRONG
SOUTHWEST MARINE PUSH...WHICH OFTEN RESULTS IN MARINE CLOUDS SPILLING
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. AS A RESULT...SKY COVER WAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE IDEA OF MORNING CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO LATE AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...MODEL AND MOS GUIDANCE IS NOT TOO KEEN ON THIS
IDEA SO AMPLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS.

ALSO OF CONCERN ARE THE AREAS OF SMOKE ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE 36 PIT FIRE
BURNING SOUTHEAST OF ESTACADA OREGON. VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
IMPACTED IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP LOW
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY. NONETHELESS...AIR QUALITY
ISSUES EXIST SO SEE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED EARLIER
TODAY FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. SOUTHWEST WINDS SPILLING THROUGH
THE COAST RANGE GAPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
VALLEY SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR OUT SOME OF THE SMOKE. STRONGER WESTERLY
FLOW TUESDAY SHOULD ALSO ASSIST IN MOST SMOKE SPREADING EASTWARD AWAY
FROM THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. NONETHELESS...LIGHT DOWN VALLEY WINDS
WILL LIKELY ALLOW THICK SMOKE AND AIR QUALITY ISSUES TO PERSIST IN
NEARBY TOWNS LIKE ESTACADA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 140W AND 35N WILL APPROACH THE WEST
COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE
DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO
SPLIT FROM THE MEAN FLOW AND DIVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS OF
NOW THE MAIN GLOBAL MODELS...THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SPLITTY NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH
PRESSURE IN QUITE SOME TIME...EXPECT MODELS ARE LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REGION. WITH THAT SAID...THERE IS A BIT OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA
SO THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AT
THIS POINT...WORDING WAS PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL OREGON
CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS.

ALL IN ALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL THIS WEEK
THAN IN RECENT DAYS. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GFS...DGEX...AND ECMWF ALL SHOW
A UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY. THE SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ON-SHORE ON
FRIDAY...TRANSITIONING OUR AREA TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT LOWER
LEVELS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PROGRESS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY
SATURDAY ENDING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE ONSHORE TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...BRIEFLY BRINGING BACK EASTERLY WINDS WHICH WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THOUGH THAT A
WEAK...DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH WILL
SERVE TO SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. THE WESTERLY
COMPONENT WILL BRING IN MARINE AIR WHICH WILL SLIGHTLY COOL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EXCEPT FOR IFR MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS FROM SMOKE RELATED TO THE OREGON
WILDFIRES. THE LOW MARINE CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT ONSHORE WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO THE ALL OF THE COASTAL AIRPORTS. CIGS
SHOULD LIFT LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW BRUSHES BY WHICH WOULD
ALLOW THE MARINE CLOUDS TO PUSH FURTHER INLAND. THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR INLAND THEY WILL GO...BUT KCVO AND KEUG
ARE THE INLAND AIRPORTS WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR LOW MVFR CIGS
AFT 10Z. DO NOT THINK FLIGHT RESTRICTING CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT IN TO
THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THE MARINE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY STAY PARKED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH TUE...BUT ANY
LOW CLOUDS INLAND SHOULD CLEAR EARLY TUE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE AIRPORT
THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING. SMOKE MAY
CREATE
A SCATTERED CIG FROM 3 TO 5 KFT TONIGHT WHEN THE WINDS EASE AFT
05Z. TJ

&&

.MARINE...S-SW WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW WILL BRUSH PAST THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. A STRONGER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW TUE AND DRAG A
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WED AND THU.

THESE LOWS ARE PRODUCING A COUPLE OF LONGER-PERIOD SW SWELLS THAT
WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE...A SERIES
OF LOWS MOVING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL GENERATE NW SWELLS
THROUGH THE WATERS. THE DIFFERENT SWELL TRAINS WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHERN OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON WATERS SIMULTANEOUSLY TUE
THROUGH THU RESULTING IN SEAS FROM MULTIPLE DIRECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS THU NIGHT AND FRI. A
THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE OREGON
WATERS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE SW SWELLS WILL DROP OFF BY THURSDAY AND A 5 TO 7 FT NW SWELL
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR ZONE 602-ZONE
603- ZONE 604-ZONE 605-ZONE 606-ZONE 607-ZONE 608.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR ZONE 604-ZONE
660.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 152223 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
320 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT WILDFIRE WILL IMPACT MOST OF NW
OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRUSH THE REGION TONIGHT...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THIS TROUGH
WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN OF LOW MARINE CLOUDS TO THE AREA...AND HELP
COOL TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. A WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY REBUILD FRIDAY WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
RETURNING NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED THERE WAS A
CHANCE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. BASED ON SATELLITE
EXTRAPOLATION AND LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...THUNDER CHANCES CONTINUE
TO APPEAR LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE INHERENT
UNCERTAINTY IN FORECASTING ELEVATED CONVECTION...WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE MENTION OF DRY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN.

A WIND REVERSAL IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTHWARD UP THE
COAST...AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...WHICH IS NOT ATYPICAL. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THE THERMAL TROUGH CURRENTLY LIES DIRECTLY OVER THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHWARD UP
THE COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD SUPPORT A DECENTLY STRONG
SOUTHWEST MARINE PUSH...WHICH OFTEN RESULTS IN MARINE CLOUDS SPILLING
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. AS A RESULT...SKY COVER WAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE IDEA OF MORNING CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO LATE AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...MODEL AND MOS GUIDANCE IS NOT TOO KEEN ON THIS
IDEA SO AMPLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS.

ALSO OF CONCERN ARE THE AREAS OF SMOKE ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE 36 PIT FIRE
BURNING SOUTHEAST OF ESTACADA OREGON. VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
IMPACTED IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP LOW
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY. NONETHELESS...AIR QUALITY
ISSUES EXIST SO SEE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED EARLIER
TODAY FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. SOUTHWEST WINDS SPILLING THROUGH
THE COAST RANGE GAPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
VALLEY SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR OUT SOME OF THE SMOKE. STRONGER WESTERLY
FLOW TUESDAY SHOULD ALSO ASSIST IN MOST SMOKE SPREADING EASTWARD AWAY
FROM THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. NONETHELESS...LIGHT DOWN VALLEY WINDS
WILL LIKELY ALLOW THICK SMOKE AND AIR QUALITY ISSUES TO PERSIST IN
NEARBY TOWNS LIKE ESTACADA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 140W AND 35N WILL APPROACH THE WEST
COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE
DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO
SPLIT FROM THE MEAN FLOW AND DIVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS OF
NOW THE MAIN GLOBAL MODELS...THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SPLITTY NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH
PRESSURE IN QUITE SOME TIME...EXPECT MODELS ARE LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REGION. WITH THAT SAID...THERE IS A BIT OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA
SO THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AT
THIS POINT...WORDING WAS PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL OREGON
CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS.

ALL IN ALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL THIS WEEK
THAN IN RECENT DAYS. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GFS...DGEX...AND ECMWF ALL SHOW
A UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY. THE SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ON-SHORE ON
FRIDAY...TRANSITIONING OUR AREA TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT LOWER
LEVELS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PROGRESS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY
SATURDAY ENDING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE ONSHORE TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...BRIEFLY BRINGING BACK EASTERLY WINDS WHICH WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THOUGH THAT A
WEAK...DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH WILL
SERVE TO SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. THE WESTERLY
COMPONENT WILL BRING IN MARINE AIR WHICH WILL SLIGHTLY COOL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EXCEPT FOR IFR MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS FROM SMOKE RELATED TO THE OREGON
WILDFIRES. THE LOW MARINE CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT ONSHORE WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO THE ALL OF THE COASTAL AIRPORTS. CIGS
SHOULD LIFT LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW BRUSHES BY WHICH WOULD
ALLOW THE MARINE CLOUDS TO PUSH FURTHER INLAND. THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR INLAND THEY WILL GO...BUT KCVO AND KEUG
ARE THE INLAND AIRPORTS WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR LOW MVFR CIGS
AFT 10Z. DO NOT THINK FLIGHT RESTRICTING CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT IN TO
THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THE MARINE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY STAY PARKED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH TUE...BUT ANY
LOW CLOUDS INLAND SHOULD CLEAR EARLY TUE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE AIRPORT
THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING. SMOKE MAY
CREATE
A SCATTERED CIG FROM 3 TO 5 KFT TONIGHT WHEN THE WINDS EASE AFT
05Z. TJ

&&

.MARINE...S-SW WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW WILL BRUSH PAST THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. A STRONGER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW TUE AND DRAG A
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WED AND THU.

THESE LOWS ARE PRODUCING A COUPLE OF LONGER-PERIOD SW SWELLS THAT
WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE...A SERIES
OF LOWS MOVING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL GENERATE NW SWELLS
THROUGH THE WATERS. THE DIFFERENT SWELL TRAINS WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHERN OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON WATERS SIMULTANEOUSLY TUE
THROUGH THU RESULTING IN SEAS FROM MULTIPLE DIRECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS THU NIGHT AND FRI. A
THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE OREGON
WATERS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE SW SWELLS WILL DROP OFF BY THURSDAY AND A 5 TO 7 FT NW SWELL
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR ZONE 602-ZONE
603- ZONE 604-ZONE 605-ZONE 606-ZONE 607-ZONE 608.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR ZONE 604-ZONE
660.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 152220
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
320 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT WILDFIRE WILL IMPACT MOST OF NW
OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRUSH THE REGION TONIGHT...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THIS TROUGH
WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN OF LOW MARINE CLOUDS TO THE AREA...AND HELP
COOL TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. A WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY REBUILD FRIDAY WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
RETURNING NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

AFTER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED THERE WAS A
CHANCE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. BASED ON SATELLITE
EXTRAPOLATION AND LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...THUNDER CHANCES CONTINUE
TO APPEAR LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE INHERENT
UNCERTAINTY IN FORECASTING ELEVATED CONVECTION...WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE MENTION OF DRY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN.

A WIND REVERSAL IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTHWARD UP THE
COAST...AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...WHICH IS NOT ATYPICAL. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THE THERMAL TROUGH CURRENTLY LIES DIRECTLY OVER THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHWARD UP
THE COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD SUPPORT A DECENTLY STRONG
SOUTHWEST MARINE PUSH...WHICH OFTEN RESULTS IN MARINE CLOUDS SPILLING
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. AS A RESULT...SKY COVER WAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE IDEA OF MORNING CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO LATE AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...MODEL AND MOS GUIDANCE IS NOT TOO KEEN ON THIS
IDEA SO AMPLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS.

ALSO OF CONCERN ARE THE AREAS OF SMOKE ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE 36 PIT FIRE
BURNING SOUTHEAST OF ESTACADA OREGON. VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
IMPACTED IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP LOW
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY. NONETHELESS...AIR QUALITY
ISSUES EXIST SO SEE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED EARLIER
TODAY FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. SOUTHWEST WINDS SPILLING THROUGH
THE COAST RANGE GAPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
VALLEY SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR OUT SOME OF THE SMOKE. STRONGER WESTERLY
FLOW TUESDAY SHOULD ALSO ASSIST IN MOST SMOKE SPREADING EASTWARD AWAY
FROM THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. NONETHELESS...LIGHT DOWN VALLEY WINDS
WILL LIKELY ALLOW THICK SMOKE AND AIR QUALITY ISSUES TO PERSIST IN
NEARBY TOWNS LIKE ESTACADA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 140W AND 35N WILL APPROACH THE WEST
COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE
DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO
SPLIT FROM THE MEAN FLOW AND DIVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS OF
NOW THE MAIN GLOBAL MODELS...THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SPLITTY NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH
PRESSURE IN QUITE SOME TIME...EXPECT MODELS ARE LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REGION. WITH THAT SAID...THERE IS A BIT OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA
SO THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AT
THIS POINT...WORDING WAS PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL OREGON
CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS.

ALL IN ALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL THIS WEEK
THAN IN RECENT DAYS. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GFS...DGEX...AND ECMWF ALL SHOW
A UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY. THE SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ON-SHORE ON
FRIDAY...TRANSITIONING OUR AREA TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT LOWER
LEVELS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PROGRESS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY
SATURDAY ENDING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE ONSHORE TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...BRIEFLY BRINGING BACK EASTERLY WINDS WHICH WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THOUGH THAT A
WEAK...DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH WILL
SERVE TO SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. THE WESTERLY
COMPONENT WILL BRING IN MARINE AIR WHICH WILL SLIGHTLY COOL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EXCEPT FOR IFR MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS FROM SMOKE RELATED TO THE OREGON
WILDFIRES. THE LOW MARINE CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT ONSHORE WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO THE ALL OF THE COASTAL AIRPORTS. CIGS
SHOULD LIFT LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW BRUSHES BY WHICH WOULD
ALLOW THE MARINE CLOUDS TO PUSH FURTHER INLAND. THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR INLAND THEY WILL GO...BUT KCVO AND KEUG
ARE THE INLAND AIRPORTS WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR LOW MVFR CIGS
AFT 10Z. DO NOT THINK FLIGHT RESTRICTING CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT IN TO
THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THE MARINE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY STAY PARKED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH TUE...BUT ANY
LOW CLOUDS INLAND SHOULD CLEAR EARLY TUE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE AIRPORT
THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING. SMOKE MAY
CREATE
A SCATTERED CIG FROM 3 TO 5 KFT TONIGHT WHEN THE WINDS EASE AFT
05Z. TJ

&&

.MARINE...S-SW WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW WILL BRUSH PAST THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. A STRONGER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW TUE AND DRAG A
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WED AND THU.

THESE LOWS ARE PRODUCING A COUPLE OF LONGER-PERIOD SW SWELLS THAT
WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE...A SERIES
OF LOWS MOVING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL GENERATE NW SWELLS
THROUGH THE WATERS. THE DIFFERENT SWELL TRAINS WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHERN OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON WATERS SIMULTANEOUSLY TUE
THROUGH THU RESULTING IN SEAS FROM MULTIPLE DIRECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS THU NIGHT AND FRI. A
THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE OREGON
WATERS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE SW SWELLS WILL DROP OFF BY THURSDAY AND A 5 TO 7 FT NW SWELL
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR ZONE 602-ZONE
603- ZONE 604-ZONE 605-ZONE 606-ZONE 607-ZONE 608.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR ZONE 604-ZONE
660.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 152220
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
320 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT WILDFIRE WILL IMPACT MOST OF NW
OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRUSH THE REGION TONIGHT...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THIS TROUGH
WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN OF LOW MARINE CLOUDS TO THE AREA...AND HELP
COOL TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. A WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY REBUILD FRIDAY WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
RETURNING NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

AFTER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED THERE WAS A
CHANCE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. BASED ON SATELLITE
EXTRAPOLATION AND LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...THUNDER CHANCES CONTINUE
TO APPEAR LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE INHERENT
UNCERTAINTY IN FORECASTING ELEVATED CONVECTION...WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE MENTION OF DRY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN.

A WIND REVERSAL IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTHWARD UP THE
COAST...AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...WHICH IS NOT ATYPICAL. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THE THERMAL TROUGH CURRENTLY LIES DIRECTLY OVER THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHWARD UP
THE COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD SUPPORT A DECENTLY STRONG
SOUTHWEST MARINE PUSH...WHICH OFTEN RESULTS IN MARINE CLOUDS SPILLING
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. AS A RESULT...SKY COVER WAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE IDEA OF MORNING CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO LATE AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...MODEL AND MOS GUIDANCE IS NOT TOO KEEN ON THIS
IDEA SO AMPLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS.

ALSO OF CONCERN ARE THE AREAS OF SMOKE ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE 36 PIT FIRE
BURNING SOUTHEAST OF ESTACADA OREGON. VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
IMPACTED IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP LOW
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY. NONETHELESS...AIR QUALITY
ISSUES EXIST SO SEE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED EARLIER
TODAY FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. SOUTHWEST WINDS SPILLING THROUGH
THE COAST RANGE GAPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
VALLEY SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR OUT SOME OF THE SMOKE. STRONGER WESTERLY
FLOW TUESDAY SHOULD ALSO ASSIST IN MOST SMOKE SPREADING EASTWARD AWAY
FROM THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. NONETHELESS...LIGHT DOWN VALLEY WINDS
WILL LIKELY ALLOW THICK SMOKE AND AIR QUALITY ISSUES TO PERSIST IN
NEARBY TOWNS LIKE ESTACADA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 140W AND 35N WILL APPROACH THE WEST
COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE
DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO
SPLIT FROM THE MEAN FLOW AND DIVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS OF
NOW THE MAIN GLOBAL MODELS...THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SPLITTY NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH
PRESSURE IN QUITE SOME TIME...EXPECT MODELS ARE LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REGION. WITH THAT SAID...THERE IS A BIT OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA
SO THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AT
THIS POINT...WORDING WAS PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL OREGON
CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS.

ALL IN ALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL THIS WEEK
THAN IN RECENT DAYS. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GFS...DGEX...AND ECMWF ALL SHOW
A UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY. THE SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ON-SHORE ON
FRIDAY...TRANSITIONING OUR AREA TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT LOWER
LEVELS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PROGRESS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY
SATURDAY ENDING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE ONSHORE TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...BRIEFLY BRINGING BACK EASTERLY WINDS WHICH WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THOUGH THAT A
WEAK...DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH WILL
SERVE TO SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. THE WESTERLY
COMPONENT WILL BRING IN MARINE AIR WHICH WILL SLIGHTLY COOL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EXCEPT FOR IFR MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS FROM SMOKE RELATED TO THE OREGON
WILDFIRES. THE LOW MARINE CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT ONSHORE WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO THE ALL OF THE COASTAL AIRPORTS. CIGS
SHOULD LIFT LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW BRUSHES BY WHICH WOULD
ALLOW THE MARINE CLOUDS TO PUSH FURTHER INLAND. THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR INLAND THEY WILL GO...BUT KCVO AND KEUG
ARE THE INLAND AIRPORTS WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR LOW MVFR CIGS
AFT 10Z. DO NOT THINK FLIGHT RESTRICTING CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT IN TO
THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THE MARINE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY STAY PARKED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH TUE...BUT ANY
LOW CLOUDS INLAND SHOULD CLEAR EARLY TUE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE AIRPORT
THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING. SMOKE MAY
CREATE
A SCATTERED CIG FROM 3 TO 5 KFT TONIGHT WHEN THE WINDS EASE AFT
05Z. TJ

&&

.MARINE...S-SW WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW WILL BRUSH PAST THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. A STRONGER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW TUE AND DRAG A
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WED AND THU.

THESE LOWS ARE PRODUCING A COUPLE OF LONGER-PERIOD SW SWELLS THAT
WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE...A SERIES
OF LOWS MOVING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL GENERATE NW SWELLS
THROUGH THE WATERS. THE DIFFERENT SWELL TRAINS WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHERN OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON WATERS SIMULTANEOUSLY TUE
THROUGH THU RESULTING IN SEAS FROM MULTIPLE DIRECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS THU NIGHT AND FRI. A
THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE OREGON
WATERS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE SW SWELLS WILL DROP OFF BY THURSDAY AND A 5 TO 7 FT NW SWELL
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR ZONE 602-ZONE
603- ZONE 604-ZONE 605-ZONE 606-ZONE 607-ZONE 608.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR ZONE 604-ZONE
660.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 152220
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
320 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT WILDFIRE WILL IMPACT MOST OF NW
OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRUSH THE REGION TONIGHT...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THIS TROUGH
WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN OF LOW MARINE CLOUDS TO THE AREA...AND HELP
COOL TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. A WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY REBUILD FRIDAY WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
RETURNING NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

AFTER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED THERE WAS A
CHANCE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. BASED ON SATELLITE
EXTRAPOLATION AND LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...THUNDER CHANCES CONTINUE
TO APPEAR LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE INHERENT
UNCERTAINTY IN FORECASTING ELEVATED CONVECTION...WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE MENTION OF DRY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN.

A WIND REVERSAL IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTHWARD UP THE
COAST...AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...WHICH IS NOT ATYPICAL. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THE THERMAL TROUGH CURRENTLY LIES DIRECTLY OVER THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHWARD UP
THE COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD SUPPORT A DECENTLY STRONG
SOUTHWEST MARINE PUSH...WHICH OFTEN RESULTS IN MARINE CLOUDS SPILLING
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. AS A RESULT...SKY COVER WAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE IDEA OF MORNING CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO LATE AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...MODEL AND MOS GUIDANCE IS NOT TOO KEEN ON THIS
IDEA SO AMPLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS.

ALSO OF CONCERN ARE THE AREAS OF SMOKE ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE 36 PIT FIRE
BURNING SOUTHEAST OF ESTACADA OREGON. VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
IMPACTED IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP LOW
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY. NONETHELESS...AIR QUALITY
ISSUES EXIST SO SEE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED EARLIER
TODAY FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. SOUTHWEST WINDS SPILLING THROUGH
THE COAST RANGE GAPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
VALLEY SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR OUT SOME OF THE SMOKE. STRONGER WESTERLY
FLOW TUESDAY SHOULD ALSO ASSIST IN MOST SMOKE SPREADING EASTWARD AWAY
FROM THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. NONETHELESS...LIGHT DOWN VALLEY WINDS
WILL LIKELY ALLOW THICK SMOKE AND AIR QUALITY ISSUES TO PERSIST IN
NEARBY TOWNS LIKE ESTACADA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 140W AND 35N WILL APPROACH THE WEST
COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE
DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO
SPLIT FROM THE MEAN FLOW AND DIVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS OF
NOW THE MAIN GLOBAL MODELS...THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SPLITTY NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH
PRESSURE IN QUITE SOME TIME...EXPECT MODELS ARE LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REGION. WITH THAT SAID...THERE IS A BIT OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA
SO THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AT
THIS POINT...WORDING WAS PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL OREGON
CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS.

ALL IN ALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL THIS WEEK
THAN IN RECENT DAYS. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GFS...DGEX...AND ECMWF ALL SHOW
A UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY. THE SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ON-SHORE ON
FRIDAY...TRANSITIONING OUR AREA TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT LOWER
LEVELS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PROGRESS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY
SATURDAY ENDING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE ONSHORE TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...BRIEFLY BRINGING BACK EASTERLY WINDS WHICH WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THOUGH THAT A
WEAK...DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH WILL
SERVE TO SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. THE WESTERLY
COMPONENT WILL BRING IN MARINE AIR WHICH WILL SLIGHTLY COOL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EXCEPT FOR IFR MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS FROM SMOKE RELATED TO THE OREGON
WILDFIRES. THE LOW MARINE CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT ONSHORE WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO THE ALL OF THE COASTAL AIRPORTS. CIGS
SHOULD LIFT LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW BRUSHES BY WHICH WOULD
ALLOW THE MARINE CLOUDS TO PUSH FURTHER INLAND. THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR INLAND THEY WILL GO...BUT KCVO AND KEUG
ARE THE INLAND AIRPORTS WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR LOW MVFR CIGS
AFT 10Z. DO NOT THINK FLIGHT RESTRICTING CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT IN TO
THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THE MARINE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY STAY PARKED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH TUE...BUT ANY
LOW CLOUDS INLAND SHOULD CLEAR EARLY TUE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE AIRPORT
THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING. SMOKE MAY
CREATE
A SCATTERED CIG FROM 3 TO 5 KFT TONIGHT WHEN THE WINDS EASE AFT
05Z. TJ

&&

.MARINE...S-SW WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW WILL BRUSH PAST THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. A STRONGER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW TUE AND DRAG A
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WED AND THU.

THESE LOWS ARE PRODUCING A COUPLE OF LONGER-PERIOD SW SWELLS THAT
WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE...A SERIES
OF LOWS MOVING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL GENERATE NW SWELLS
THROUGH THE WATERS. THE DIFFERENT SWELL TRAINS WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHERN OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON WATERS SIMULTANEOUSLY TUE
THROUGH THU RESULTING IN SEAS FROM MULTIPLE DIRECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS THU NIGHT AND FRI. A
THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE OREGON
WATERS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE SW SWELLS WILL DROP OFF BY THURSDAY AND A 5 TO 7 FT NW SWELL
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR ZONE 602-ZONE
603- ZONE 604-ZONE 605-ZONE 606-ZONE 607-ZONE 608.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR ZONE 604-ZONE
660.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 152220
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
320 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT WILDFIRE WILL IMPACT MOST OF NW
OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRUSH THE REGION TONIGHT...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THIS TROUGH
WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN OF LOW MARINE CLOUDS TO THE AREA...AND HELP
COOL TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. A WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY REBUILD FRIDAY WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
RETURNING NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

AFTER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED THERE WAS A
CHANCE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. BASED ON SATELLITE
EXTRAPOLATION AND LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...THUNDER CHANCES CONTINUE
TO APPEAR LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE INHERENT
UNCERTAINTY IN FORECASTING ELEVATED CONVECTION...WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE MENTION OF DRY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN.

A WIND REVERSAL IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTHWARD UP THE
COAST...AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...WHICH IS NOT ATYPICAL. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THE THERMAL TROUGH CURRENTLY LIES DIRECTLY OVER THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHWARD UP
THE COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD SUPPORT A DECENTLY STRONG
SOUTHWEST MARINE PUSH...WHICH OFTEN RESULTS IN MARINE CLOUDS SPILLING
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. AS A RESULT...SKY COVER WAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE IDEA OF MORNING CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO LATE AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...MODEL AND MOS GUIDANCE IS NOT TOO KEEN ON THIS
IDEA SO AMPLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS.

ALSO OF CONCERN ARE THE AREAS OF SMOKE ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE 36 PIT FIRE
BURNING SOUTHEAST OF ESTACADA OREGON. VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
IMPACTED IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP LOW
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY. NONETHELESS...AIR QUALITY
ISSUES EXIST SO SEE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED EARLIER
TODAY FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. SOUTHWEST WINDS SPILLING THROUGH
THE COAST RANGE GAPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
VALLEY SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR OUT SOME OF THE SMOKE. STRONGER WESTERLY
FLOW TUESDAY SHOULD ALSO ASSIST IN MOST SMOKE SPREADING EASTWARD AWAY
FROM THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. NONETHELESS...LIGHT DOWN VALLEY WINDS
WILL LIKELY ALLOW THICK SMOKE AND AIR QUALITY ISSUES TO PERSIST IN
NEARBY TOWNS LIKE ESTACADA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 140W AND 35N WILL APPROACH THE WEST
COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE
DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO
SPLIT FROM THE MEAN FLOW AND DIVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS OF
NOW THE MAIN GLOBAL MODELS...THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SPLITTY NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE THE FIRST SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH
PRESSURE IN QUITE SOME TIME...EXPECT MODELS ARE LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REGION. WITH THAT SAID...THERE IS A BIT OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA
SO THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AT
THIS POINT...WORDING WAS PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL OREGON
CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS.

ALL IN ALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL THIS WEEK
THAN IN RECENT DAYS. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GFS...DGEX...AND ECMWF ALL SHOW
A UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY. THE SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ON-SHORE ON
FRIDAY...TRANSITIONING OUR AREA TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT LOWER
LEVELS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PROGRESS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY
SATURDAY ENDING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE ONSHORE TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...BRIEFLY BRINGING BACK EASTERLY WINDS WHICH WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THOUGH THAT A
WEAK...DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH WILL
SERVE TO SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. THE WESTERLY
COMPONENT WILL BRING IN MARINE AIR WHICH WILL SLIGHTLY COOL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EXCEPT FOR IFR MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS FROM SMOKE RELATED TO THE OREGON
WILDFIRES. THE LOW MARINE CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT ONSHORE WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO THE ALL OF THE COASTAL AIRPORTS. CIGS
SHOULD LIFT LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW BRUSHES BY WHICH WOULD
ALLOW THE MARINE CLOUDS TO PUSH FURTHER INLAND. THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR INLAND THEY WILL GO...BUT KCVO AND KEUG
ARE THE INLAND AIRPORTS WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR LOW MVFR CIGS
AFT 10Z. DO NOT THINK FLIGHT RESTRICTING CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT IN TO
THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THE MARINE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY STAY PARKED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH TUE...BUT ANY
LOW CLOUDS INLAND SHOULD CLEAR EARLY TUE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE AIRPORT
THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING. SMOKE MAY
CREATE
A SCATTERED CIG FROM 3 TO 5 KFT TONIGHT WHEN THE WINDS EASE AFT
05Z. TJ

&&

.MARINE...S-SW WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW WILL BRUSH PAST THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. A STRONGER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW TUE AND DRAG A
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WED AND THU.

THESE LOWS ARE PRODUCING A COUPLE OF LONGER-PERIOD SW SWELLS THAT
WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE...A SERIES
OF LOWS MOVING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL GENERATE NW SWELLS
THROUGH THE WATERS. THE DIFFERENT SWELL TRAINS WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHERN OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON WATERS SIMULTANEOUSLY TUE
THROUGH THU RESULTING IN SEAS FROM MULTIPLE DIRECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS THU NIGHT AND FRI. A
THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE OREGON
WATERS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE SW SWELLS WILL DROP OFF BY THURSDAY AND A 5 TO 7 FT NW SWELL
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR ZONE 602-ZONE
603- ZONE 604-ZONE 605-ZONE 606-ZONE 607-ZONE 608.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR ZONE 604-ZONE
660.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 152209
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER
MARINE AIR AND MORE CLOUD COVER TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH SHOWERS MOST LIKELY ON THURSDAY. SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER
UNDER A STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SKIES ARE CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
THOUGH STRATUS IS CREEPING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S EVERYWHERE WITH A FEW PLACES TOUCHING 90.

THE STRATUS ON THE SOUTH COAST IS A HARBINGER OF MORE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS TUESDAY. SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL TURN WEAKLY ONSHORE
TONIGHT WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH TO NORTH OVER
THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW STRATUS TO SPREAD INLAND SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT. MOST LIKELY THE STRATUS WILL COVER LOWLAND AREAS MAINLY
WEST OF PUGET SOUND...WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
MARINE INFLUENCE WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY.

A DEEPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SEND SOME IMPULSES
NORTHEAST INTO WASHINGTON BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE ABOUT A
THREE DAY PERIOD WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LASTING THROUGH ABOUT FRIDAY EVENING. THE HIGHEST POPS ARE
ON THURSDAY...IN THE LIKELY RANGE...AND IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE THE
POPS MAY EVENTUALLY GO HIGHER AND THE WEATHER MIGHT SIMPLY BE RAIN
RATHER THAN SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY AND
MAINLY IN THE 60S THURSDAY. BURKE

.LONG TERM...ON FRIDAY THERE WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS...MOSTLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
GFS SHOWING HEIGHTS IN THE MID 580S BUT THE EURO PUSHING NEARLY TO
590DM. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH AT LEAST
THE LOW 80S IN MANY PLACES BY SUNDAY. THE GFS HAS A WEAK SYSTEM
APPROACHING BY MONDAY SO LOWER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BURKE

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFT E INTO THE INTERIOR PAC
NW AND GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OFF THE
CA/OREGON COAST WILL DISSIPATE AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MODERATELY STRONG. STABLE ATMOSPHERE
AND DRY ALOFT. BECOMING MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS AS MARINE STRATUS
DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT...THEN SPREADS THROUGH THE STRAIT
AND CHEHALIS GAP INTO SRN PUGET SOUND BY EARLY MORNING. IFR CIGS ARE
LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AND ALSO AT KOLM. THE KSEA/KBFI TERMINALS
WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF MARINE STRATUS...BUT ANY STRATUS OVER PUGET
SOUND SHOULD BE BRIEF AND CLEAR BY 18Z.

KSEA...NLY WIND 4 TO 8 KT...BECOMING LIGHT LATE THIS EVENING...THEN
SWITCHING TO SWLY AFTER 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. A SHORT 2-4 HOUR PERIOD
OF IFR STRATUS IS STILL POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINAL AFTER 12Z. ANY
STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE SHALLOW BELOW 500 FEET AND BURN OFF BY
17-18Z.

&&

.MARINE...THE THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR WATERS THIS
EVENING WILL SHIFT E OF THE CASCADES LATER TONIGHT. THE FLOW WILL
BECOME ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING...AND SWITCHING TO
ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE INTERIOR WATERS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE STRAIGHT OF JUAN DE FUCA THROUGH
THE DAY WITH SMALL CRAFT WESTERLIES LIKELY DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 152209
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER
MARINE AIR AND MORE CLOUD COVER TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH SHOWERS MOST LIKELY ON THURSDAY. SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER
UNDER A STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SKIES ARE CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
THOUGH STRATUS IS CREEPING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S EVERYWHERE WITH A FEW PLACES TOUCHING 90.

THE STRATUS ON THE SOUTH COAST IS A HARBINGER OF MORE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS TUESDAY. SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL TURN WEAKLY ONSHORE
TONIGHT WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH TO NORTH OVER
THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW STRATUS TO SPREAD INLAND SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT. MOST LIKELY THE STRATUS WILL COVER LOWLAND AREAS MAINLY
WEST OF PUGET SOUND...WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
MARINE INFLUENCE WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY.

A DEEPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SEND SOME IMPULSES
NORTHEAST INTO WASHINGTON BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE ABOUT A
THREE DAY PERIOD WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LASTING THROUGH ABOUT FRIDAY EVENING. THE HIGHEST POPS ARE
ON THURSDAY...IN THE LIKELY RANGE...AND IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE THE
POPS MAY EVENTUALLY GO HIGHER AND THE WEATHER MIGHT SIMPLY BE RAIN
RATHER THAN SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY AND
MAINLY IN THE 60S THURSDAY. BURKE

.LONG TERM...ON FRIDAY THERE WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS...MOSTLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
GFS SHOWING HEIGHTS IN THE MID 580S BUT THE EURO PUSHING NEARLY TO
590DM. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH AT LEAST
THE LOW 80S IN MANY PLACES BY SUNDAY. THE GFS HAS A WEAK SYSTEM
APPROACHING BY MONDAY SO LOWER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BURKE

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFT E INTO THE INTERIOR PAC
NW AND GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OFF THE
CA/OREGON COAST WILL DISSIPATE AS IT LIFTS NE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MODERATELY STRONG. STABLE ATMOSPHERE
AND DRY ALOFT. BECOMING MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS AS MARINE STRATUS
DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT...THEN SPREADS THROUGH THE STRAIT
AND CHEHALIS GAP INTO SRN PUGET SOUND BY EARLY MORNING. IFR CIGS ARE
LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AND ALSO AT KOLM. THE KSEA/KBFI TERMINALS
WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF MARINE STRATUS...BUT ANY STRATUS OVER PUGET
SOUND SHOULD BE BRIEF AND CLEAR BY 18Z.

KSEA...NLY WIND 4 TO 8 KT...BECOMING LIGHT LATE THIS EVENING...THEN
SWITCHING TO SWLY AFTER 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. A SHORT 2-4 HOUR PERIOD
OF IFR STRATUS IS STILL POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINAL AFTER 12Z. ANY
STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE SHALLOW BELOW 500 FEET AND BURN OFF BY
17-18Z.

&&

.MARINE...THE THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR WATERS THIS
EVENING WILL SHIFT E OF THE CASCADES LATER TONIGHT. THE FLOW WILL
BECOME ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING...AND SWITCHING TO
ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE INTERIOR WATERS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE STRAIGHT OF JUAN DE FUCA THROUGH
THE DAY WITH SMALL CRAFT WESTERLIES LIKELY DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KOTX 152134
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
234 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm temperatures will be across the Inland Northwest
through Wednesday as high pressure remains over the region. A weak
cold front will likely arrive on Thursday cooling temperatures
closer to normal. There will also be a chance for light mountain showers
Thursday into Friday morning with the passing front. Warm and dry
conditions will likely return for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Tuesday: High pressure will be over the region for the
next 24 hours, although it will weaken slightly as a shortwave off
the Oregon coast pivots into it. A band of high level moisture
associated with the shortwave will sweep in from the south
overnight into Tuesday. The lift is weak especially as the
shortwave falls apart as it tracks into the upper ridge axis
position. Most of this moisture will be above 10k ft, so the
threat of any precipitation will be minor. But the best if any
chance will be across the Blue mountains Tuesday morning and then
into central ID panhandle by Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise
anticipate some areas of virga or isolated sprinkles with the
cloud band across southeast Washington and southern Idaho
panhandle. Meanwhile, low level temperatures will continue to
rise, about 2 to 4 degrees warmer on Tuesday. This would make
Tuesday the warmest day of the week. Winds will be light and
mostly east/northeast tonight into Tuesday morning, with southwest
winds creeping into the southern Columbia Basin and Palouse by
Tuesday afternoon. /rfox

Tuesday night through Thursday night...In the big picture a
splitting trough will move into the eastern Pacific by Tuesday
afternoon. By Wednesday afternoon the southern portion of the
split closes into a cut-off low with the best moisture and
dynamics staying well south of our area. What this will do is drag
a weakening trough through southern B.C. Wednesday night and
Thursday with best forcing staying in central B.C. There will be
some mid level moisture that will move into the area Wednesday
night and Thursday.

For Tuesday night the models keep showing a weak wave moving
out of northeast Oregon and just brushing our southeast zones.
I kept some very low end pops through the night, but am far from
impressed and thinking at this just may be some increasing mid-
level clouds.

Wednesday night through Thursday night...Slight chance to chance
pops over the Cascades Wednesday night...then the chance for
precipitation will track across the northern mountains and Idaho
Panhandle for Thursday and Thursday night. Precipitation as mainly
showers... however there appears to be enough mid level
instability to introduce a few lighting strikes for the far
northeast mountains and Idaho Panhandle zones late in the day
Thursday. Confidence is much better for some light shower than any
lightning. Any precipitation should be a tenth or less. A slight
up tick in the southwest winds can also be expected Thursday
afternoon with sustained winds around 10mph. /Tobin

Friday afternoon through Tuesday morning: The exiting mid-week
trough will be replaced by another ridge of high pressure for the
weekend. While the ridge looks to keep things pleasant all
weekend, another trough will approach early next week.

The ridge should bring warming temperatures, with afternoon
readings topping out 10 to 15 degrees above normal (widespread
80s). The approach of another trough off the Pacific Northwest
coastline should begin to bring those temperatures back towards
normal, but will still be 3 to 7 degrees above (mid/upper 70s). ty

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A warm and dry air mass will remain over eastern
Washington and north Idaho through 18z Wednesday with light winds.
High clouds will move in from the south as a weather disturbance
skirts the region. Some isolated showers are possible, but should
be mainly virga across the Blue mountains and central Id panhandle
mountains. /rfox.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  85  56  83  57  79 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Coeur d`Alene  51  85  52  83  53  78 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Pullman        50  84  53  84  53  79 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       60  90  61  89  61  84 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       46  90  50  83  51  81 /   0   0  10  10  20  20
Sandpoint      41  83  47  78  48  75 /   0  10  10  10  10  30
Kellogg        50  83  54  80  53  75 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Moses Lake     51  87  56  86  58  84 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      56  86  61  85  62  81 /   0   0  10  10  20  30
Omak           48  88  55  86  57  82 /   0   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 152134
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
234 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm temperatures will be across the Inland Northwest
through Wednesday as high pressure remains over the region. A weak
cold front will likely arrive on Thursday cooling temperatures
closer to normal. There will also be a chance for light mountain showers
Thursday into Friday morning with the passing front. Warm and dry
conditions will likely return for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Tuesday: High pressure will be over the region for the
next 24 hours, although it will weaken slightly as a shortwave off
the Oregon coast pivots into it. A band of high level moisture
associated with the shortwave will sweep in from the south
overnight into Tuesday. The lift is weak especially as the
shortwave falls apart as it tracks into the upper ridge axis
position. Most of this moisture will be above 10k ft, so the
threat of any precipitation will be minor. But the best if any
chance will be across the Blue mountains Tuesday morning and then
into central ID panhandle by Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise
anticipate some areas of virga or isolated sprinkles with the
cloud band across southeast Washington and southern Idaho
panhandle. Meanwhile, low level temperatures will continue to
rise, about 2 to 4 degrees warmer on Tuesday. This would make
Tuesday the warmest day of the week. Winds will be light and
mostly east/northeast tonight into Tuesday morning, with southwest
winds creeping into the southern Columbia Basin and Palouse by
Tuesday afternoon. /rfox

Tuesday night through Thursday night...In the big picture a
splitting trough will move into the eastern Pacific by Tuesday
afternoon. By Wednesday afternoon the southern portion of the
split closes into a cut-off low with the best moisture and
dynamics staying well south of our area. What this will do is drag
a weakening trough through southern B.C. Wednesday night and
Thursday with best forcing staying in central B.C. There will be
some mid level moisture that will move into the area Wednesday
night and Thursday.

For Tuesday night the models keep showing a weak wave moving
out of northeast Oregon and just brushing our southeast zones.
I kept some very low end pops through the night, but am far from
impressed and thinking at this just may be some increasing mid-
level clouds.

Wednesday night through Thursday night...Slight chance to chance
pops over the Cascades Wednesday night...then the chance for
precipitation will track across the northern mountains and Idaho
Panhandle for Thursday and Thursday night. Precipitation as mainly
showers... however there appears to be enough mid level
instability to introduce a few lighting strikes for the far
northeast mountains and Idaho Panhandle zones late in the day
Thursday. Confidence is much better for some light shower than any
lightning. Any precipitation should be a tenth or less. A slight
up tick in the southwest winds can also be expected Thursday
afternoon with sustained winds around 10mph. /Tobin

Friday afternoon through Tuesday morning: The exiting mid-week
trough will be replaced by another ridge of high pressure for the
weekend. While the ridge looks to keep things pleasant all
weekend, another trough will approach early next week.

The ridge should bring warming temperatures, with afternoon
readings topping out 10 to 15 degrees above normal (widespread
80s). The approach of another trough off the Pacific Northwest
coastline should begin to bring those temperatures back towards
normal, but will still be 3 to 7 degrees above (mid/upper 70s). ty

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A warm and dry air mass will remain over eastern
Washington and north Idaho through 18z Wednesday with light winds.
High clouds will move in from the south as a weather disturbance
skirts the region. Some isolated showers are possible, but should
be mainly virga across the Blue mountains and central Id panhandle
mountains. /rfox.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  85  56  83  57  79 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Coeur d`Alene  51  85  52  83  53  78 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Pullman        50  84  53  84  53  79 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       60  90  61  89  61  84 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       46  90  50  83  51  81 /   0   0  10  10  20  20
Sandpoint      41  83  47  78  48  75 /   0  10  10  10  10  30
Kellogg        50  83  54  80  53  75 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Moses Lake     51  87  56  86  58  84 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      56  86  61  85  62  81 /   0   0  10  10  20  30
Omak           48  88  55  86  57  82 /   0   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 151906
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1206 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Afternoon temperatures will be in the 80s Monday through Wednesday
as warm high pressure brings summer like weather to the Inland
Northwest. A cold front will likely arrive on Thursday cooling
temperatures closer to average. There will also be a chance for
light rain showers Thursday into Friday morning with the passing
front. Warm and dry conditions will likely return for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will continue over the region today with
temperatures 3 to 5 degrees warmer than yesterday. A weak
shortwave is moving up the OR coast with high clouds pushing in
from the south overnight into Tuesday. /rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A warm and dry air mass will remain over eastern
Washington and north Idaho through 18z Wednesday with light winds.
High clouds will move in from the south as a weather disturbance
skirts the region. Some isolated showers are possible, but should
be mainly virga across the Blue mountains and central Id panhandle
mountains. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  54  85  57  82  56 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  82  51  85  53  82  53 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Pullman        84  50  84  54  83  53 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       90  60  90  61  88  61 /   0  10  10  20  10  10
Colville       87  46  90  50  83  50 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      78  41  83  48  78  47 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        79  50  83  54  79  53 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Moses Lake     86  51  87  56  86  57 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      85  56  86  61  84  61 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Omak           85  48  88  55  86  55 /   0   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 151906
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1206 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Afternoon temperatures will be in the 80s Monday through Wednesday
as warm high pressure brings summer like weather to the Inland
Northwest. A cold front will likely arrive on Thursday cooling
temperatures closer to average. There will also be a chance for
light rain showers Thursday into Friday morning with the passing
front. Warm and dry conditions will likely return for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will continue over the region today with
temperatures 3 to 5 degrees warmer than yesterday. A weak
shortwave is moving up the OR coast with high clouds pushing in
from the south overnight into Tuesday. /rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A warm and dry air mass will remain over eastern
Washington and north Idaho through 18z Wednesday with light winds.
High clouds will move in from the south as a weather disturbance
skirts the region. Some isolated showers are possible, but should
be mainly virga across the Blue mountains and central Id panhandle
mountains. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  54  85  57  82  56 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  82  51  85  53  82  53 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Pullman        84  50  84  54  83  53 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       90  60  90  61  88  61 /   0  10  10  20  10  10
Colville       87  46  90  50  83  50 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      78  41  83  48  78  47 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        79  50  83  54  79  53 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Moses Lake     86  51  87  56  86  57 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      85  56  86  61  84  61 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Omak           85  48  88  55  86  55 /   0   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 151906
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1206 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Afternoon temperatures will be in the 80s Monday through Wednesday
as warm high pressure brings summer like weather to the Inland
Northwest. A cold front will likely arrive on Thursday cooling
temperatures closer to average. There will also be a chance for
light rain showers Thursday into Friday morning with the passing
front. Warm and dry conditions will likely return for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will continue over the region today with
temperatures 3 to 5 degrees warmer than yesterday. A weak
shortwave is moving up the OR coast with high clouds pushing in
from the south overnight into Tuesday. /rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A warm and dry air mass will remain over eastern
Washington and north Idaho through 18z Wednesday with light winds.
High clouds will move in from the south as a weather disturbance
skirts the region. Some isolated showers are possible, but should
be mainly virga across the Blue mountains and central Id panhandle
mountains. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  54  85  57  82  56 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  82  51  85  53  82  53 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Pullman        84  50  84  54  83  53 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       90  60  90  61  88  61 /   0  10  10  20  10  10
Colville       87  46  90  50  83  50 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      78  41  83  48  78  47 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        79  50  83  54  79  53 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Moses Lake     86  51  87  56  86  57 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      85  56  86  61  84  61 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Omak           85  48  88  55  86  55 /   0   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 151906
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1206 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Afternoon temperatures will be in the 80s Monday through Wednesday
as warm high pressure brings summer like weather to the Inland
Northwest. A cold front will likely arrive on Thursday cooling
temperatures closer to average. There will also be a chance for
light rain showers Thursday into Friday morning with the passing
front. Warm and dry conditions will likely return for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will continue over the region today with
temperatures 3 to 5 degrees warmer than yesterday. A weak
shortwave is moving up the OR coast with high clouds pushing in
from the south overnight into Tuesday. /rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A warm and dry air mass will remain over eastern
Washington and north Idaho through 18z Wednesday with light winds.
High clouds will move in from the south as a weather disturbance
skirts the region. Some isolated showers are possible, but should
be mainly virga across the Blue mountains and central Id panhandle
mountains. /rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  54  85  57  82  56 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  82  51  85  53  82  53 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Pullman        84  50  84  54  83  53 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       90  60  90  61  88  61 /   0  10  10  20  10  10
Colville       87  46  90  50  83  50 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      78  41  83  48  78  47 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        79  50  83  54  79  53 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Moses Lake     86  51  87  56  86  57 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      85  56  86  61  84  61 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Omak           85  48  88  55  86  55 /   0   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 151617
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
911 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SMOKE
FROM THE 36 PIT WILDFIRE WILL IMPACT AREAS OF NW OREGON AND SW
WASHINGTON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRUSH BY
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY TRIGGER SOME DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH
WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN OF LOW MARINE CLOUDS TO THE AREA...AND HELP
COOL TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN MID WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FRIDAY WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ENABLED AMPLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
ALTOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS TO DEVELOP...WITH THE FIRST BANDS OF CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO LANE AND LINN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TODAY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT APPEAR QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION OF MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THIS MOISTURE. THIS IS
CERTAINLY OF HIGH CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL WILDFIRE STARTS SO THE RED
FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 5 AM TUESDAY. EVEN THOUGH THE
CASCADES ARE REMOVED FROM THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...THE NAM
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THERE IS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION UNDERNEATH ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP OVER THE
CASCADES TONIGHT SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE EXPANDED SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MEANWHILE...A WIND REVERSAL IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTHWARD UP THE
COAST...WELL AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...WHICH IS NOT ATYPICAL. AS A
RESULT...SKY COVER AND FOG WORDING WAS EXPANDED TO REFLECT THE
LATEST TRENDS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A
4MB PLUS GRADIENT EXTENDING BETWEEN FLORENCE AND PORTLAND BY THIS
EVENING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS EVENING NEAR COASTAL GAPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY. IN ADDITION...THIS IS ALSO A
GOOD SIGN THAT MARINE CLOUDS WILL DEEPEN ENOUGH TO PENETRATE INTO
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING.

ALSO OF CONCERN ARE THE AREAS OF SMOKE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
AS A RESULT OF THE 36 PIT FIRE BURNING SOUTHEAST OF ESTACADA OREGON.
WITHOUT GETTING INTO TOO MUCH DETAIL...SMOKE DISPERSION WILL LIKELY
FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN TO YESTERDAY WHERE AREAS BETWEEN THE
SOUTHERN PORTLAND METRO AREA AND SALEM WILL SEE A NOTICEABLE DROP IN
VISIBILITY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE SMOKE PLUME REACHES HIGHER
INTO THE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SMOKE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND MOUNT HOOD...WHILE
HAZY SKIES LINGER BETWEEN SALEM/CORVALLIS AND LONGVIEW/KELSO
WASHINGTON. A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY APPEARS UNLIKELY AS VISIBILITIES
NEED TO BE A 1/4 MILE OR LESS FOR ISSUANCE...AND WE DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES TO BE THIS BAD AT ANY POINT TODAY. FOR AIR
QUALITY INFORMATION...PLEASE CONTINUE TO CHECK WITH OREGON DEQ AND
THE WASHINGTON STATE DEPARTMENT OF ECOLOGY. WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON WHERE TO FIND AIR QUALITY INFORMATION IN A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT AND VIA SOCIAL MEDIA OUTLETS.

WILL ALSO PLAN ON LOOKING AT THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY STORM SYSTEM IN
MORE DETAIL WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. EVEN THOUGH MODELS
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE QPF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SUSPECT A DRIER
FORECAST IS BETTER THAN A WETTER FORECAST...AND I WOULD CERTAINLY
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE GOOD PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA GET
SKUNKED IN THE RAINFALL DEPARTMENT. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK
PROVIDING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE CWA. /64

&&

.AVIATION...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDITIONS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. HOWEVER...A SW WIND REVERSAL WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD IFR OR LOWER LOW STRATUS AND FOG ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST LATER THIS MORNING...AND ALONG THE N OREGON AND S
WASHINGTON COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ONCE THE MARINE
CLOUDS MOVE IN...EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH 12Z TUE.
THE ONLY FCST WRINKLE IS DEALING WITH THE EXTENSIVE SMOKE PLUME
BEING GENERATED BY THE 36 PIT FIRE NEAR ESTACADA. UNTIL THE SW
WIND REVERSAL MOVES THROUGH THE INTERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING...SMOKE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING PERIODS OF
RESTRICTED VSBYS AND BKN CIGS TO THE INTERIOR TAF SITES. THE MOST
LIKELY SITES TO SEE IMPACTS FROM THE SMOKE ARE
KSLE...KHIO...KPDX...AND KTTD.

FINALLY...A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION BEGINNING IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. A SMOKE PLUME MAY CREATE BROKEN
CIG FROM 3 TO 5 KFT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT SURFACE VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES. ALSO...THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...S-SW WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WATERS TODAY AS A
LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SW. HOWEVER...WINDS STILL HAVE AN E
COMPONENT NORTH OF TILLAMOOK THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT TODAY AND TONIGHT...LESS THAN 15 KT. A STRONGER
LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW TUE AND MAINTAIN THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS. S-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WED AND THU AS THE SECOND LOW NEARS
THE WATERS.

THESE LOWS WILL PRODUCE A COUPLE OF LONGER-PERIOD SW SWELLS OVER
THE WATERS THIS WEEK. A SERIES OF LOWS MOVING OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL ALSO GENERATE NW SWELLS OVER THE WATERS. THE DIFFERENT
SWELL
TRAINS WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON WATERS
SIMULTANEOUSLY TUE THROUGH THU RESULTING IN SEAS FROM MULTIPLE
DIRECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS THU NIGHT AND FRI. A
THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE OREGON
WATERS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE SW SWELLS WILL DROP OFF BY FRIDAY AND A 6 TO 8 FT NW SWELL
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ZONE 602-ZONE 603-
     ZONE 604-ZONE 605-ZONE 606-ZONE 607-ZONE 608.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ZONE 604-ZONE 660.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 151617
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
911 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SMOKE
FROM THE 36 PIT WILDFIRE WILL IMPACT AREAS OF NW OREGON AND SW
WASHINGTON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRUSH BY
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY TRIGGER SOME DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH
WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN OF LOW MARINE CLOUDS TO THE AREA...AND HELP
COOL TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN MID WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FRIDAY WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ENABLED AMPLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
ALTOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS TO DEVELOP...WITH THE FIRST BANDS OF CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO LANE AND LINN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TODAY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT APPEAR QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION OF MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THIS MOISTURE. THIS IS
CERTAINLY OF HIGH CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL WILDFIRE STARTS SO THE RED
FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 5 AM TUESDAY. EVEN THOUGH THE
CASCADES ARE REMOVED FROM THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...THE NAM
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THERE IS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION UNDERNEATH ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP OVER THE
CASCADES TONIGHT SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE EXPANDED SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MEANWHILE...A WIND REVERSAL IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTHWARD UP THE
COAST...WELL AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...WHICH IS NOT ATYPICAL. AS A
RESULT...SKY COVER AND FOG WORDING WAS EXPANDED TO REFLECT THE
LATEST TRENDS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A
4MB PLUS GRADIENT EXTENDING BETWEEN FLORENCE AND PORTLAND BY THIS
EVENING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS EVENING NEAR COASTAL GAPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY. IN ADDITION...THIS IS ALSO A
GOOD SIGN THAT MARINE CLOUDS WILL DEEPEN ENOUGH TO PENETRATE INTO
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING.

ALSO OF CONCERN ARE THE AREAS OF SMOKE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
AS A RESULT OF THE 36 PIT FIRE BURNING SOUTHEAST OF ESTACADA OREGON.
WITHOUT GETTING INTO TOO MUCH DETAIL...SMOKE DISPERSION WILL LIKELY
FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN TO YESTERDAY WHERE AREAS BETWEEN THE
SOUTHERN PORTLAND METRO AREA AND SALEM WILL SEE A NOTICEABLE DROP IN
VISIBILITY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE SMOKE PLUME REACHES HIGHER
INTO THE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SMOKE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND MOUNT HOOD...WHILE
HAZY SKIES LINGER BETWEEN SALEM/CORVALLIS AND LONGVIEW/KELSO
WASHINGTON. A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY APPEARS UNLIKELY AS VISIBILITIES
NEED TO BE A 1/4 MILE OR LESS FOR ISSUANCE...AND WE DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES TO BE THIS BAD AT ANY POINT TODAY. FOR AIR
QUALITY INFORMATION...PLEASE CONTINUE TO CHECK WITH OREGON DEQ AND
THE WASHINGTON STATE DEPARTMENT OF ECOLOGY. WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON WHERE TO FIND AIR QUALITY INFORMATION IN A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT AND VIA SOCIAL MEDIA OUTLETS.

WILL ALSO PLAN ON LOOKING AT THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY STORM SYSTEM IN
MORE DETAIL WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. EVEN THOUGH MODELS
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE QPF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SUSPECT A DRIER
FORECAST IS BETTER THAN A WETTER FORECAST...AND I WOULD CERTAINLY
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE GOOD PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA GET
SKUNKED IN THE RAINFALL DEPARTMENT. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK
PROVIDING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE CWA. /64

&&

.AVIATION...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDITIONS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. HOWEVER...A SW WIND REVERSAL WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD IFR OR LOWER LOW STRATUS AND FOG ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST LATER THIS MORNING...AND ALONG THE N OREGON AND S
WASHINGTON COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ONCE THE MARINE
CLOUDS MOVE IN...EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH 12Z TUE.
THE ONLY FCST WRINKLE IS DEALING WITH THE EXTENSIVE SMOKE PLUME
BEING GENERATED BY THE 36 PIT FIRE NEAR ESTACADA. UNTIL THE SW
WIND REVERSAL MOVES THROUGH THE INTERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING...SMOKE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING PERIODS OF
RESTRICTED VSBYS AND BKN CIGS TO THE INTERIOR TAF SITES. THE MOST
LIKELY SITES TO SEE IMPACTS FROM THE SMOKE ARE
KSLE...KHIO...KPDX...AND KTTD.

FINALLY...A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION BEGINNING IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. A SMOKE PLUME MAY CREATE BROKEN
CIG FROM 3 TO 5 KFT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT SURFACE VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES. ALSO...THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...S-SW WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WATERS TODAY AS A
LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SW. HOWEVER...WINDS STILL HAVE AN E
COMPONENT NORTH OF TILLAMOOK THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT TODAY AND TONIGHT...LESS THAN 15 KT. A STRONGER
LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW TUE AND MAINTAIN THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS. S-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WED AND THU AS THE SECOND LOW NEARS
THE WATERS.

THESE LOWS WILL PRODUCE A COUPLE OF LONGER-PERIOD SW SWELLS OVER
THE WATERS THIS WEEK. A SERIES OF LOWS MOVING OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL ALSO GENERATE NW SWELLS OVER THE WATERS. THE DIFFERENT
SWELL
TRAINS WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON WATERS
SIMULTANEOUSLY TUE THROUGH THU RESULTING IN SEAS FROM MULTIPLE
DIRECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS THU NIGHT AND FRI. A
THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE OREGON
WATERS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE SW SWELLS WILL DROP OFF BY FRIDAY AND A 6 TO 8 FT NW SWELL
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ZONE 602-ZONE 603-
     ZONE 604-ZONE 605-ZONE 606-ZONE 607-ZONE 608.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ZONE 604-ZONE 660.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 151559
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING ONE MORE SUNNY AND
WARM DAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRIGGER ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
COOLER MARINE AIR MASS AND MORE CLOUD COVER TUESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...CLEAR SKIES OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. AN
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND SURFACE FLOW IS MODERATELY
OFFSHORE. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TODAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE 80S AND LOW 90S.

SURFACE FLOW TURNS WEAKLY ONSHORE TONIGHT AND BECOMES STRONGER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HARD TO SEE STRATUS MOVING FAR INLAND TUESDAY
MORNING BUT THERE COULD BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT...BRINGING SOME CLOUDS BY 12Z. WITH UPPER
RIDGING STILL EVIDENT AND ONSHORE FLOW UNIMPRESSIVE IT SEEMS LIKELY
THE CLOUDS WILL MOSTLY CLEAR TUESDAY AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR THE COAST.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL CERTAINLY BE LOWER THAN TODAY...MOSTLY 70S.

STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE MORE CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SPINNING OUT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN ADDITION
TO THE LOW STRATUS WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID
70S. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT LATEST
MODEL RUNS TEND TO CONFINE SHOWERS TO THE COAST AND OLYMPICS. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EXTENDED MODELS STILL HAVING
TROUBLE WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE
GENERAL TREND OF THE MODELS IS TO BE SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THIS
FEATURE. CURRENT FORECAST OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE MOST PART
LOOKS GOOD AT THIS POINT. FRIDAY WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN HOW FAST THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CAN BUILD VERSUS A WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE
PUSHING THE SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THE GFS STILL KEEPS SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA WITH A WEAKER RIDGE. WITH THE LACK
OF CONSENSUS WILL STAY WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY FOR A DRY
DAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT TURN OFFSHORE KEEPING TEMPERATURES JUST
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON SUNDAY
WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A STRONGER RIDGE VERSUS THE GFS SOLUTION.
STILL A DRY DAY EITHER WAY. BOTH OF THE MODELS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW GOING ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 70S
EVEN WITH THE STRONG RIDGING. FELTON

&&

.CLIMATE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SEATTLE WILL HAVE A HIGH IN THE
90S TODAY. THIS WOULD ONLY BE THE 14TH TIME SINCE RECORDS STARTED AT
SEA-TAC IN 1945 WITH A HIGH 90 PLUS ON A DAY IN SEPTEMBER. THERE
HAVE ONLY BEEN TWO SEPTEMBERS WITH MORE THAN ONE 90 PLUS DEGREE
DAY...1988 WITH 98 ON THE 2ND AND 92 ON THE 3RD...AND 1967 WITH 93
ON THE 15TH AND 91 ON THE 16TH. TODAY WILL BE THE 45TH DAY OF THE
YEAR WITH A HIGH 80 PLUS IN SEATTLE. THE RECORD IS 47 DAYS SET IN
1958. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WA TODAY WILL SHIFT
EWD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MODERATELY
STRONG. LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE TONIGHT AND
INCREASE ON TUESDAY. ATMOSPHERE DRY AND STABLE. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. PATCHY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DEVELOPING IN THE STRAIT AND SW INTERIOR/S PUGET SOUND TUESDAY
MORNING...DISSIPATING BY 18Z. EXPECT CIGS UNDER 500 FEET WHERE
STRATUS FORMS...MOST LIKELY AFFECTING THE KHQM/KCLM/OLM TERMINALS.
THE KBFI/KSEA WILL BE ON THE EDGE BUT LOW IFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS TUESDAY MORNING.

KSEA...LIGHT WIND BECOMING NLY TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT IN THE EVENING...THEN SWLY 4 TO 8 KT TUESDAY MORNING.
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ON THE COAST
TONIGHT SQUIRT IN THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP AND GIVE AREAS OF LOW IFR
CIGS AND VIS AROUND PUGET SOUND TUESDAY MORNING. NEWER MODELS
SUGGEST THE STRATUS COULD END UP JUST SHORT OF KSEA AND WILL MAKE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE. DTM

&&

.MARINE...THE THERMALLY INDUCED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
WILL SHIFT INLAND TONIGHT. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE
TONIGHT AND INCREASE ON TUESDAY. LOW MARINE STRATUS WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST THIS EVENING AND MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE INLAND WATERS BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLIES ARE
LIKELY IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES. DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 151559
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING ONE MORE SUNNY AND
WARM DAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRIGGER ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
COOLER MARINE AIR MASS AND MORE CLOUD COVER TUESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...CLEAR SKIES OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. AN
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND SURFACE FLOW IS MODERATELY
OFFSHORE. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TODAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE 80S AND LOW 90S.

SURFACE FLOW TURNS WEAKLY ONSHORE TONIGHT AND BECOMES STRONGER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HARD TO SEE STRATUS MOVING FAR INLAND TUESDAY
MORNING BUT THERE COULD BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT...BRINGING SOME CLOUDS BY 12Z. WITH UPPER
RIDGING STILL EVIDENT AND ONSHORE FLOW UNIMPRESSIVE IT SEEMS LIKELY
THE CLOUDS WILL MOSTLY CLEAR TUESDAY AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR THE COAST.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL CERTAINLY BE LOWER THAN TODAY...MOSTLY 70S.

STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE MORE CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SPINNING OUT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN ADDITION
TO THE LOW STRATUS WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID
70S. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT LATEST
MODEL RUNS TEND TO CONFINE SHOWERS TO THE COAST AND OLYMPICS. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EXTENDED MODELS STILL HAVING
TROUBLE WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE
GENERAL TREND OF THE MODELS IS TO BE SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THIS
FEATURE. CURRENT FORECAST OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE MOST PART
LOOKS GOOD AT THIS POINT. FRIDAY WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN HOW FAST THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CAN BUILD VERSUS A WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE
PUSHING THE SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THE GFS STILL KEEPS SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA WITH A WEAKER RIDGE. WITH THE LACK
OF CONSENSUS WILL STAY WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY FOR A DRY
DAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT TURN OFFSHORE KEEPING TEMPERATURES JUST
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON SUNDAY
WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A STRONGER RIDGE VERSUS THE GFS SOLUTION.
STILL A DRY DAY EITHER WAY. BOTH OF THE MODELS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW GOING ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 70S
EVEN WITH THE STRONG RIDGING. FELTON

&&

.CLIMATE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SEATTLE WILL HAVE A HIGH IN THE
90S TODAY. THIS WOULD ONLY BE THE 14TH TIME SINCE RECORDS STARTED AT
SEA-TAC IN 1945 WITH A HIGH 90 PLUS ON A DAY IN SEPTEMBER. THERE
HAVE ONLY BEEN TWO SEPTEMBERS WITH MORE THAN ONE 90 PLUS DEGREE
DAY...1988 WITH 98 ON THE 2ND AND 92 ON THE 3RD...AND 1967 WITH 93
ON THE 15TH AND 91 ON THE 16TH. TODAY WILL BE THE 45TH DAY OF THE
YEAR WITH A HIGH 80 PLUS IN SEATTLE. THE RECORD IS 47 DAYS SET IN
1958. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WA TODAY WILL SHIFT
EWD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MODERATELY
STRONG. LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE TONIGHT AND
INCREASE ON TUESDAY. ATMOSPHERE DRY AND STABLE. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. PATCHY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DEVELOPING IN THE STRAIT AND SW INTERIOR/S PUGET SOUND TUESDAY
MORNING...DISSIPATING BY 18Z. EXPECT CIGS UNDER 500 FEET WHERE
STRATUS FORMS...MOST LIKELY AFFECTING THE KHQM/KCLM/OLM TERMINALS.
THE KBFI/KSEA WILL BE ON THE EDGE BUT LOW IFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS TUESDAY MORNING.

KSEA...LIGHT WIND BECOMING NLY TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT IN THE EVENING...THEN SWLY 4 TO 8 KT TUESDAY MORNING.
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ON THE COAST
TONIGHT SQUIRT IN THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP AND GIVE AREAS OF LOW IFR
CIGS AND VIS AROUND PUGET SOUND TUESDAY MORNING. NEWER MODELS
SUGGEST THE STRATUS COULD END UP JUST SHORT OF KSEA AND WILL MAKE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE. DTM

&&

.MARINE...THE THERMALLY INDUCED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
WILL SHIFT INLAND TONIGHT. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE
TONIGHT AND INCREASE ON TUESDAY. LOW MARINE STRATUS WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST THIS EVENING AND MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE INLAND WATERS BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLIES ARE
LIKELY IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES. DTM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KOTX 151221
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
520 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Afternoon temperatures will be in the 80s Monday through Wednesday
as warm high pressure brings summer like weather to the Inland
Northwest. A cold front will likely arrive on Thursday cooling
temperatures closer to average. There will also be a chance for
light rain showers Thursday into Friday morning with the passing
front. Warm and dry conditions will likely return for the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and Tuesday: Light winds, warm temperatures and mainly clear
conditions are expected today. The Inland Northwest will be
squarely under the influence of a high pressure with the 500mb
ridge axis over central Washington. A shortwave trough currently
off the coast of northern California will shunt the ridge axis in
Montana by mid day Tuesday causing the 850mb thermal ridge to jump
east of the Cascades. Barring any unforeseen thick cloudiness,
Tuesday should be the warmest day of the week with mid to upper
80s common from central Washington into the Idaho Panhandle.
Widely scattered high based continue to be advertised by the NAM
and GFS Tuesday and Tuesday night over the Camas Prairie, Blue
Mountains and central Idaho Panhandle. Deep layer moisture will be
a limiting factor and cloud bases look to be above 10 thousand
feet. It is hard to get very excited about anything more than a
brief light shower looking at forecast soundings.

Wednesday and Thursday: The NAM, GFS and ECMWF have come into
better agreement that the warm upper ridge will break down
Wednesday into Thursday. A split flow pattern seems to be the
scenario the models have settled upon after several days of model
indecision. Precipitation chances have been trended downward. It
no longer appears that the Gulf of Alaska trough will phase with
the lower latitude low in the eastern Pacific. At this time, the
mountainous zones will have the best opportunity of measurable
rain Wednesday night into Thursday night. If this trend
continues, precipitation chances and amounts may need to be
decreased further. /GKoch

Friday through Monday: Another beautiful weekend is expected as a
ridge pattern will build into the region. A slight chance of rain
showers from the previous system is possible for the high mountain
areas on Friday. The rest of the region is expected to free of
rain. Warmer temperatures will begin to build back into the region
with highs reaching the mid 80s and lows around 50. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A warm and dry air mass will remain over eastern
Washington and north Idaho through 12z Wednesday. High pressure
and weak pressure gradients region-wide will produce light winds.
A weak upper level disturbance off the California coast will bring
a bit of high cloudiness this afternoon and into the night with
cloud bases at or above 10 thousand feet. /GKoch


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  53  85  57  82  56 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  82  49  85  53  82  53 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Pullman        84  50  87  54  83  53 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       90  60  92  61  88  61 /   0  10  10  20  10  10
Colville       85  46  87  50  83  50 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      78  41  80  48  78  47 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        79  50  83  54  79  53 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Moses Lake     86  51  87  56  86  57 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      85  56  86  61  84  61 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Omak           85  48  88  55  86  55 /   0   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 151104
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
400 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL BRING ONE MORE SUNNY AND WARM DAY TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST
TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRIGGER ONSHORE
FLOW MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A COOLER MARINE AIR MASS AND MORE CLOUD
COVER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON TUESDAY. CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL USHER IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS MOVED INLAND
OVERNIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES IN THE LOWER LEVELS. TEMPERATURES
ARE A LITTLE WARMER THIS MORNING UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
SEATTLE AREA.

ONE MORE HOT DAY IN STORE FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA. SURFACE GRADIENTS REMAINING OFFSHORE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUING TO WARM WITH THE
850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 17 TO 20 DEGREES C RANGE BY 00Z TUESDAY.
WITH THE WARMING ALOFT EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
SUNDAY...80S COMMON EXCEPT NEAR THE WATER AND LOWER 90S IN THE
WARMEST LOCATIONS. FOR MOST DAYS IN SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES THIS WARM
WOULD BE RECORDS BUT A HOT SPELL IN 1967 ALSO OCCURRED ON THIS DAY
MAKING IT HARDER TO BREAK RECORDS TODAY.

EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE NO RED FLAG WARNING UP FOR THE AREA
TODAY...FUELS ARE NOW AT THEIR DRIEST POINT THIS SEASON. MID-LEVEL
HAINES 5 AND 6 CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT AN ACTIVE
BURNING ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO BE CAREFUL WITH BURNING MATERIAL. FIREFIGHTERS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVE FIRE BEHAVIOR WHEN RESPONDING TO ANY
NEW STARTS.

THE OVERALL PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE OVERNIGHT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY NEAR
37N/129W...WILL MOVE BY TO THE WEST LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE GETS NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRATUS SURGE UP THE COASTLINE. THE SHORTWAVE WILL DELAY THE STRATUS
A FEW HOURS VERSUS A "NORMAL" PUSH BUT BY 12Z TUESDAY THE SHORTWAVE
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO ALLOW THE STRATUS TO COVER THE COASTAL
AREAS. THE COMBINATION OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND THE INCREASING STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WILL RESULT IN
MORE UNIFORM LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

TOUGH CALL ON HOW FAR INLAND THE STRATUS GETS TUESDAY MORNING WITH
THE SHORTWAVE PROVIDING A BIT OF A WRINKLE TO THE SITUATION. WITH
THE NEAR RECORD HEAT TODAY OVER THE INTERIOR UNDER A NORMAL PUSH
SCENARIO THE STRATUS WOULD RUSH INTO THE INTERIOR TUESDAY MORNING.
WITH THE DELAY CAUSED BY THE SHORTWAVE THE STRATUS WILL HAVE A
HARDER TIME FILLING UP THE INTERIOR ON TUESDAY AND BE SHALLOWER THAN
A NORMAL PUSH. HAVE GONE FOR A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR THE INTERIOR ON TUESDAY WITH THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE MARINE
LAYER. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON TUESDAY...10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
MONDAYS READINGS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW RESULTING IN MORE CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SPINNING OUT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. 00Z MODEL TRENDS WITH THIS FEATURE ARE A LITTLE
SLOWER VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO PULL THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OUT OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN ADDITION TO THE LOW STRATUS WEDNESDAY WILL
KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED MODELS STILL HAVING TROUBLE WITH THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE GENERAL TREND OF THE
MODELS IS TO BE SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE. CURRENT
FORECAST OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE MOST PART LOOKS GOOD AT THIS
POINT. FRIDAY WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN HOW FAST THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CAN BUILD VERSUS A WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE PUSHING THE SYSTEM
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THE GFS STILL KEEPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
OVER THE AREA WITH A WEAKER RIDGE. WITH THE LACK OF CONSENSUS WILL
STAY WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY FOR A DRY DAY. LOW
LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT TURN OFFSHORE KEEPING TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON SUNDAY WITH
THE ECMWF SHOWING A STRONGER RIDGE VERSUS THE GFS SOLUTION. STILL A
DRY DAY EITHER WAY. BOTH OF THE MODELS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GOING
ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 70S EVEN WITH THE
STRONG RIDGING. FELTON

&&

.CLIMATE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SEATTLE WILL HAVE A HIGH IN THE
90S TODAY. THIS WOULD ONLY BE THE 14TH TIME SINCE RECORDS STARTED AT
SEA-TAC IN 1945 WITH A HIGH 90 PLUS ON A DAY IN SEPTEMBER. THERE
HAVE ONLY BEEN TWO SEPTEMBERS WITH MORE THAN ONE 90 PLUS DEGREE
DAY...1988 WITH 98 ON THE 2ND AND 92 ON THE 3RD...AND 1967 WITH 93
ON THE 15TH AND 91 ON THE 16TH. TODAY WILL BE THE 45TH DAY OF THE
YEAR WITH A HIGH 80 PLUS IN SEATTLE. THE RECORD IS 47 DAYS SET IN
1958. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE
ROCKIES TUESDAY. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE TONIGHT AND INCREASE ON TUESDAY. LOW
STRATUS WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THE DRY STABLE AIR
WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TUESDAY.


KSEA...CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT NLY BREEZE TODAY...SOME CIRRUS BY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE LOW CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP
ON THE COAST TONIGHT SQUIRT IN THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP AND GIVE
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AROUND PUGET SOUND TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...THE THERMALLY INDUCED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
WILL SHIFT INLAND TONIGHT. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE
TONIGHT AND INCREASE ON TUESDAY. LOW MARINE STRATUS WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST THIS EVENING AND MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE INLAND WATERS BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLIES ARE
LIKELY IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TUESDAY AS THE ONSHORE FLOW
INCREASES.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML













000
FXUS66 KSEW 151104
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
400 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL BRING ONE MORE SUNNY AND WARM DAY TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST
TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRIGGER ONSHORE
FLOW MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A COOLER MARINE AIR MASS AND MORE CLOUD
COVER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON TUESDAY. CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL USHER IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS MOVED INLAND
OVERNIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES IN THE LOWER LEVELS. TEMPERATURES
ARE A LITTLE WARMER THIS MORNING UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
SEATTLE AREA.

ONE MORE HOT DAY IN STORE FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA. SURFACE GRADIENTS REMAINING OFFSHORE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUING TO WARM WITH THE
850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 17 TO 20 DEGREES C RANGE BY 00Z TUESDAY.
WITH THE WARMING ALOFT EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
SUNDAY...80S COMMON EXCEPT NEAR THE WATER AND LOWER 90S IN THE
WARMEST LOCATIONS. FOR MOST DAYS IN SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES THIS WARM
WOULD BE RECORDS BUT A HOT SPELL IN 1967 ALSO OCCURRED ON THIS DAY
MAKING IT HARDER TO BREAK RECORDS TODAY.

EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE NO RED FLAG WARNING UP FOR THE AREA
TODAY...FUELS ARE NOW AT THEIR DRIEST POINT THIS SEASON. MID-LEVEL
HAINES 5 AND 6 CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT AN ACTIVE
BURNING ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO BE CAREFUL WITH BURNING MATERIAL. FIREFIGHTERS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVE FIRE BEHAVIOR WHEN RESPONDING TO ANY
NEW STARTS.

THE OVERALL PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE OVERNIGHT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY NEAR
37N/129W...WILL MOVE BY TO THE WEST LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE GETS NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRATUS SURGE UP THE COASTLINE. THE SHORTWAVE WILL DELAY THE STRATUS
A FEW HOURS VERSUS A "NORMAL" PUSH BUT BY 12Z TUESDAY THE SHORTWAVE
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO ALLOW THE STRATUS TO COVER THE COASTAL
AREAS. THE COMBINATION OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND THE INCREASING STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WILL RESULT IN
MORE UNIFORM LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

TOUGH CALL ON HOW FAR INLAND THE STRATUS GETS TUESDAY MORNING WITH
THE SHORTWAVE PROVIDING A BIT OF A WRINKLE TO THE SITUATION. WITH
THE NEAR RECORD HEAT TODAY OVER THE INTERIOR UNDER A NORMAL PUSH
SCENARIO THE STRATUS WOULD RUSH INTO THE INTERIOR TUESDAY MORNING.
WITH THE DELAY CAUSED BY THE SHORTWAVE THE STRATUS WILL HAVE A
HARDER TIME FILLING UP THE INTERIOR ON TUESDAY AND BE SHALLOWER THAN
A NORMAL PUSH. HAVE GONE FOR A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR THE INTERIOR ON TUESDAY WITH THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE MARINE
LAYER. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON TUESDAY...10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
MONDAYS READINGS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW RESULTING IN MORE CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SPINNING OUT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. 00Z MODEL TRENDS WITH THIS FEATURE ARE A LITTLE
SLOWER VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO PULL THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OUT OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN ADDITION TO THE LOW STRATUS WEDNESDAY WILL
KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED MODELS STILL HAVING TROUBLE WITH THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE GENERAL TREND OF THE
MODELS IS TO BE SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE. CURRENT
FORECAST OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE MOST PART LOOKS GOOD AT THIS
POINT. FRIDAY WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN HOW FAST THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CAN BUILD VERSUS A WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE PUSHING THE SYSTEM
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THE GFS STILL KEEPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
OVER THE AREA WITH A WEAKER RIDGE. WITH THE LACK OF CONSENSUS WILL
STAY WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY FOR A DRY DAY. LOW
LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT TURN OFFSHORE KEEPING TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON SUNDAY WITH
THE ECMWF SHOWING A STRONGER RIDGE VERSUS THE GFS SOLUTION. STILL A
DRY DAY EITHER WAY. BOTH OF THE MODELS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GOING
ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 70S EVEN WITH THE
STRONG RIDGING. FELTON

&&

.CLIMATE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SEATTLE WILL HAVE A HIGH IN THE
90S TODAY. THIS WOULD ONLY BE THE 14TH TIME SINCE RECORDS STARTED AT
SEA-TAC IN 1945 WITH A HIGH 90 PLUS ON A DAY IN SEPTEMBER. THERE
HAVE ONLY BEEN TWO SEPTEMBERS WITH MORE THAN ONE 90 PLUS DEGREE
DAY...1988 WITH 98 ON THE 2ND AND 92 ON THE 3RD...AND 1967 WITH 93
ON THE 15TH AND 91 ON THE 16TH. TODAY WILL BE THE 45TH DAY OF THE
YEAR WITH A HIGH 80 PLUS IN SEATTLE. THE RECORD IS 47 DAYS SET IN
1958. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE
ROCKIES TUESDAY. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE TONIGHT AND INCREASE ON TUESDAY. LOW
STRATUS WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THE DRY STABLE AIR
WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TUESDAY.


KSEA...CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT NLY BREEZE TODAY...SOME CIRRUS BY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE LOW CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP
ON THE COAST TONIGHT SQUIRT IN THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP AND GIVE
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AROUND PUGET SOUND TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...THE THERMALLY INDUCED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
WILL SHIFT INLAND TONIGHT. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE
TONIGHT AND INCREASE ON TUESDAY. LOW MARINE STRATUS WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST THIS EVENING AND MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE INLAND WATERS BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLIES ARE
LIKELY IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TUESDAY AS THE ONSHORE FLOW
INCREASES.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KPQR 151014
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
313 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. SMOKE
FROM THE 36 PIT WILDFIRE WILL IMPACT AREAS OF NW OREGON AND SW
WASHINGTON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRUSH BY
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY TRIGGER SOME DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH
WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN OF LOW MARINE CLOUDS TO THE AREA...AND HELP
COOL TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN MID WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FRIDAY WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH STRATUS ALREADY
SURGING UP THE COAST...ALMOST TO NEWPORT AS OF 10Z...TODAY`S FORECAST
APPEARS QUITE A BIT MORE COMPLICATED THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. THERE
DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ANYTHING TO PREVENT THE STRATUS FROM PROGRESSING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY REACHING ASTORIA AS EARLY AS
THIS AFTERNOON....AND ALL OF THE MODELS ARE AT LEAST 12 HOURS OFF IN
TIMING BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. IF THE STRATUS PUSH AND
ASSOCIATED SW WIND REVERSAL DO INDEED MAKE IT ALL THE WAY UP THE
COAST TODAY...IT COULD WREAK HAVOC ON TEMPERATURES. HAVE ALREADY
LOWERED CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL AND COAST RANGE VALLEY TEMPERATURES A
NUMBER OF DEGREES BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. IF WINDS TURN ONSHORE EARLY TODAY AND THE
THE MARINE INFLUENCE MAKES IT INTO THE VALLEY...IT WOULD CUT OFF
HEATING AND HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD TOP OUT A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. HOWEVER...THERE WAS QUITE A LAG DURING
THE LAST COASTAL STRATUS SURGE EVENT BETWEEN ITS ARRIVAL AT THE
COAST AND EFFECTS INLAND WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT ANY MARINE AIR
WHICH DOES MAKE IT INTO THE VALLEY TODAY WOULD LIKELY ARRIVE TOO
LATE TO HAVE A BIG EFFECT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. FOR THIS
REASON...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY TODAY. ANOTHER TEMPERATURE CONCERN TODAY IS SMOKE FROM THE 36
PIT FIRE BUT SINCE IT SEEMED TO HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON DAYTIME
WARMING ON SUNDAY...AM COUNTING ON IT NOT LIMITING HEATING AGAIN
TODAY. IN THE END...RAISED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES THROUGH
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED AROUND 39N 133W WILL PUSH NORTHEAST
TOWARD OREGON TODAY. MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE LOW
AND IT LOOKS LIKE DYNAMICS MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED CONVECTION STARTING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE RAIN AT THE GROUND AND THUS
HAVE KEPT DRY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.

A SURFACE LOW WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES TOWARD THE COAST
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WEAKER
AND A BIT SLOWER WITH IT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A DRIER SOLUTION
OVERALL AND HAVE LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY IN THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
TIME FRAME AS A RESULT. BOWEN

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK
PROVIDING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE CWA. /64

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. HOWEVER...A
SW WIND REVERSAL WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD IFR OR LOWER LOW STRATUS AND
FOG ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST LATER THIS MORNING...AND ALONG
THE N OREGON AND S WASHINGTON COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. ONCE THE MARINE CLOUDS MOVE IN...EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH 12Z TUE.
THE ONLY FCST WRINKLE IS DEALING WITH THE EXTENSIVE SMOKE PLUME
BEING GENERATED BY THE 36 PIT FIRE NEAR ESTACADA. UNTIL THE SW
WIND REVERSAL MOVES THROUGH THE INTERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
THIS EVENING...SMOKE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING PERIODS OF RESTRICTED
VSBYS AND BKN CIGS TO THE INTERIOR TAF SITES. THE MOST LIKELY
SITES TO SEE IMPACTS FROM THE SMOKE ARE KSLE...KHIO...KPDX...AND
KTTD.

FINALLY...A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION BEGINNING IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. A SMOKE PLUME MAY CREATE BROKEN
CIG FROM 3 TO 5 KFT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT SURFACE VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES. ALSO...THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...A SW WIND REVERSAL WILL PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM S TO N TODAY. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS THIS MORNING...THEN OVER THE N OREGON AND S
WASHINGTON WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KT. THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TRIGGERING
THE WIND REVERSAL WILL ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WATERS LATE MON AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUE
MORNING.

A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST FOR WED
AND THU. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY
BEFORE IMPACTING OUR MARINE ZONES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SW WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SEAS
WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW
10 FT. HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRING A RETURN TO NORTHERLY TO THE
WATERS ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ZONE 602-ZONE 603-
     ZONE 604-ZONE 605-ZONE 606-ZONE 607-ZONE 608.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ZONE 604-ZONE 660.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 151000
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
300 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Afternoon temperatures will be in the 80s Monday through Wednesday
as warm high pressure brings summer like weather to the Inland
Northwest. A cold front will likely arrive on Thursday cooling
temperatures closer to average. There will also be a chance for
light rain showers Thursday into Friday morning with the passing
front. Warm and dry conditions will likely return for the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and Tuesday: Light winds, warm temperatures and mainly clear
conditions are expected today. The Inland Northwest will be
squarely under the influence of a high pressure with the 500mb
ridge axis over central Washington. A shortwave trough currently
off the coast of northern California will shunt the ridge axis in
Montana by mid day Tuesday causing the 850mb thermal ridge to jump
east of the Cascades. Barring any unforeseen thick cloudiness,
Tuesday should be the warmest day of the week with mid to upper
80s common from central Washington into the Idaho Panhandle.
Widely scattered high based continue to be advertised by the NAM
and GFS Tuesday and Tuesday night over the Camas Prairie, Blue
Mountains and central Idaho Panhandle. Deep layer moisture will be
a limiting factor and cloud bases look to be above 10 thousand
feet. It is hard to get very excited about anything more than a
brief light shower looking at forecast soundings.

Wednesday and Thursday: The NAM, GFS and ECMWF have come into
better agreement that the warm upper ridge will break down
Wednesday into Thursday. A split flow pattern seems to be the
scenario the models have settled upon after several days of model
indecision. Precipitation chances have been trended downward. It
no longer appears that the Gulf of Alaska trough will phase with
the lower latitude low in the eastern Pacific. At this time, the
mountainous zones will have the best opportunity of measurable
rain Wednesday night into Thursday night. If this trend
continues, precipitation chances and amounts may need to be
decreased further. /GKoch

Friday through Monday: Another beautiful weekend is expected as a
ridge pattern will build into the region. A slight chance of rain
showers from the previous system is possible for the high mountain
areas on Friday. The rest of the region is expected to free of
rain. Warmer temperatures will begin to build back into the region
with highs reaching the mid 80s and lows around 50. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure will remain over the Inland Northwest
tonight and Monday for VFR conditions and light winds at all TAF
sites. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  53  85  57  82  56 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  82  49  85  53  82  53 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Pullman        84  50  87  54  83  53 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       90  60  92  61  88  61 /   0  10  10  20  10  10
Colville       85  46  87  50  83  50 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      78  41  80  48  78  47 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        79  50  83  54  79  53 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Moses Lake     86  51  87  56  86  57 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      85  56  86  61  84  61 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Omak           85  48  88  55  86  55 /   0   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 151000
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
300 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Afternoon temperatures will be in the 80s Monday through Wednesday
as warm high pressure brings summer like weather to the Inland
Northwest. A cold front will likely arrive on Thursday cooling
temperatures closer to average. There will also be a chance for
light rain showers Thursday into Friday morning with the passing
front. Warm and dry conditions will likely return for the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and Tuesday: Light winds, warm temperatures and mainly clear
conditions are expected today. The Inland Northwest will be
squarely under the influence of a high pressure with the 500mb
ridge axis over central Washington. A shortwave trough currently
off the coast of northern California will shunt the ridge axis in
Montana by mid day Tuesday causing the 850mb thermal ridge to jump
east of the Cascades. Barring any unforeseen thick cloudiness,
Tuesday should be the warmest day of the week with mid to upper
80s common from central Washington into the Idaho Panhandle.
Widely scattered high based continue to be advertised by the NAM
and GFS Tuesday and Tuesday night over the Camas Prairie, Blue
Mountains and central Idaho Panhandle. Deep layer moisture will be
a limiting factor and cloud bases look to be above 10 thousand
feet. It is hard to get very excited about anything more than a
brief light shower looking at forecast soundings.

Wednesday and Thursday: The NAM, GFS and ECMWF have come into
better agreement that the warm upper ridge will break down
Wednesday into Thursday. A split flow pattern seems to be the
scenario the models have settled upon after several days of model
indecision. Precipitation chances have been trended downward. It
no longer appears that the Gulf of Alaska trough will phase with
the lower latitude low in the eastern Pacific. At this time, the
mountainous zones will have the best opportunity of measurable
rain Wednesday night into Thursday night. If this trend
continues, precipitation chances and amounts may need to be
decreased further. /GKoch

Friday through Monday: Another beautiful weekend is expected as a
ridge pattern will build into the region. A slight chance of rain
showers from the previous system is possible for the high mountain
areas on Friday. The rest of the region is expected to free of
rain. Warmer temperatures will begin to build back into the region
with highs reaching the mid 80s and lows around 50. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure will remain over the Inland Northwest
tonight and Monday for VFR conditions and light winds at all TAF
sites. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  53  85  57  82  56 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  82  49  85  53  82  53 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Pullman        84  50  87  54  83  53 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       90  60  92  61  88  61 /   0  10  10  20  10  10
Colville       85  46  87  50  83  50 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      78  41  80  48  78  47 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        79  50  83  54  79  53 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Moses Lake     86  51  87  56  86  57 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      85  56  86  61  84  61 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Omak           85  48  88  55  86  55 /   0   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 151000
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
300 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Afternoon temperatures will be in the 80s Monday through Wednesday
as warm high pressure brings summer like weather to the Inland
Northwest. A cold front will likely arrive on Thursday cooling
temperatures closer to average. There will also be a chance for
light rain showers Thursday into Friday morning with the passing
front. Warm and dry conditions will likely return for the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and Tuesday: Light winds, warm temperatures and mainly clear
conditions are expected today. The Inland Northwest will be
squarely under the influence of a high pressure with the 500mb
ridge axis over central Washington. A shortwave trough currently
off the coast of northern California will shunt the ridge axis in
Montana by mid day Tuesday causing the 850mb thermal ridge to jump
east of the Cascades. Barring any unforeseen thick cloudiness,
Tuesday should be the warmest day of the week with mid to upper
80s common from central Washington into the Idaho Panhandle.
Widely scattered high based continue to be advertised by the NAM
and GFS Tuesday and Tuesday night over the Camas Prairie, Blue
Mountains and central Idaho Panhandle. Deep layer moisture will be
a limiting factor and cloud bases look to be above 10 thousand
feet. It is hard to get very excited about anything more than a
brief light shower looking at forecast soundings.

Wednesday and Thursday: The NAM, GFS and ECMWF have come into
better agreement that the warm upper ridge will break down
Wednesday into Thursday. A split flow pattern seems to be the
scenario the models have settled upon after several days of model
indecision. Precipitation chances have been trended downward. It
no longer appears that the Gulf of Alaska trough will phase with
the lower latitude low in the eastern Pacific. At this time, the
mountainous zones will have the best opportunity of measurable
rain Wednesday night into Thursday night. If this trend
continues, precipitation chances and amounts may need to be
decreased further. /GKoch

Friday through Monday: Another beautiful weekend is expected as a
ridge pattern will build into the region. A slight chance of rain
showers from the previous system is possible for the high mountain
areas on Friday. The rest of the region is expected to free of
rain. Warmer temperatures will begin to build back into the region
with highs reaching the mid 80s and lows around 50. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure will remain over the Inland Northwest
tonight and Monday for VFR conditions and light winds at all TAF
sites. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  53  85  57  82  56 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  82  49  85  53  82  53 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Pullman        84  50  87  54  83  53 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       90  60  92  61  88  61 /   0  10  10  20  10  10
Colville       85  46  87  50  83  50 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      78  41  80  48  78  47 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        79  50  83  54  79  53 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Moses Lake     86  51  87  56  86  57 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      85  56  86  61  84  61 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Omak           85  48  88  55  86  55 /   0   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 151000
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
300 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Afternoon temperatures will be in the 80s Monday through Wednesday
as warm high pressure brings summer like weather to the Inland
Northwest. A cold front will likely arrive on Thursday cooling
temperatures closer to average. There will also be a chance for
light rain showers Thursday into Friday morning with the passing
front. Warm and dry conditions will likely return for the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and Tuesday: Light winds, warm temperatures and mainly clear
conditions are expected today. The Inland Northwest will be
squarely under the influence of a high pressure with the 500mb
ridge axis over central Washington. A shortwave trough currently
off the coast of northern California will shunt the ridge axis in
Montana by mid day Tuesday causing the 850mb thermal ridge to jump
east of the Cascades. Barring any unforeseen thick cloudiness,
Tuesday should be the warmest day of the week with mid to upper
80s common from central Washington into the Idaho Panhandle.
Widely scattered high based continue to be advertised by the NAM
and GFS Tuesday and Tuesday night over the Camas Prairie, Blue
Mountains and central Idaho Panhandle. Deep layer moisture will be
a limiting factor and cloud bases look to be above 10 thousand
feet. It is hard to get very excited about anything more than a
brief light shower looking at forecast soundings.

Wednesday and Thursday: The NAM, GFS and ECMWF have come into
better agreement that the warm upper ridge will break down
Wednesday into Thursday. A split flow pattern seems to be the
scenario the models have settled upon after several days of model
indecision. Precipitation chances have been trended downward. It
no longer appears that the Gulf of Alaska trough will phase with
the lower latitude low in the eastern Pacific. At this time, the
mountainous zones will have the best opportunity of measurable
rain Wednesday night into Thursday night. If this trend
continues, precipitation chances and amounts may need to be
decreased further. /GKoch

Friday through Monday: Another beautiful weekend is expected as a
ridge pattern will build into the region. A slight chance of rain
showers from the previous system is possible for the high mountain
areas on Friday. The rest of the region is expected to free of
rain. Warmer temperatures will begin to build back into the region
with highs reaching the mid 80s and lows around 50. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure will remain over the Inland Northwest
tonight and Monday for VFR conditions and light winds at all TAF
sites. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  53  85  57  82  56 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  82  49  85  53  82  53 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Pullman        84  50  87  54  83  53 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       90  60  92  61  88  61 /   0  10  10  20  10  10
Colville       85  46  87  50  83  50 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      78  41  80  48  78  47 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        79  50  83  54  79  53 /   0   0  10  20  20  10
Moses Lake     86  51  87  56  86  57 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      85  56  86  61  84  61 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Omak           85  48  88  55  86  55 /   0   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 150531
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1030 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm weather is expected to continue over the Inland
Northwest through at least Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure
builds over the region. A cold front will brush the region
Wednesday night into Thursday. This will result in a chance of
rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two. The second half
of the week may become breezy with temperatures cooling toward
normal. The ridge will rebuild for the weekend with dry conditions
and warming temperatures.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday night...High pressure will remain strong
over the Pacific Northwest tonight through Tuesday. The ridge
does begin to push eastward as a weak wave runs up the backside of
the ridge Monday night. A much stronger...but splitting trough is
expected to move into the west coast late in the day Wednesday.

Tonight through Tuesday...Continued warm and dry with temperatures
climbing into the low to mid 80s. This is 10-12 degrees above
seasonal averages. In addition a weak northeast-east surface
gradient will keep light northeast winds in the region through
Tuesday. The weak wave that moves north just off the Washington
coast will have little effect on the Inland Northwest save for
possibly increased clouds over the Cascades.

Tuesday night...The flow turns southwest and will tap into deeper
Pacific moisture. The NAM and GFS are showing some moisture
advection and weak instability around 10k feet moving through the
Blue mountains and Camas Prairie. The only thing that is lacking
is a decent wave to kick parcel high enough into the atmosphere to
tap into the mid level instability. Pops were bumped up a little
bit but the weather was kept as showers and held off on
thunderstorms overnight. It may end up just being some increased
mid level clouds. Any precipitation that does fall will be very
light or virga as the sub-cloud layer is extremely dry.

Wednesday and Wednesday night there will be a better chance for
showers and again possible thunderstorms. The models are showing
the trough splitting...with the best forcing going north into B.C.
and a secondary area remaining south in Oregon. Southwest flow
will definitely pump up enough moisture to sustain showers for the
mountains surrounding the Columbia basin and Palouse.
Precipitation for the mountains should stay below a tenth of an
inch. The front or what resembles a front will just sag into the
region and while southwest winds will be on the increase they
should remain 10-15 mph or less. Temperatures will be on the
decline Wednesday but remain on the warm side of normal. /Tobin

Thursday through Sunday...Unsettled weather will affect portions
of the Inland Northwest Thursday into Thursday night as a trough
of low pressure moves through the region. Medium range models are
in better agreement on split flow with the trough, keeping most of
the energy in the base of the trough that will slide down the
Oregon and California coasts. There will still be a good chance of
some precipitation for the higher elevations across the forecast
area but with the flow looking more westerly, the basin and east
slopes may get rain-shadowed. Once the trough axis moves east
Friday morning, a drying and warming trend will commence. How warm
it gets over the weekend will depend on the strength of the ridge.
The ECMWF is more bullish with the ridge and warming temperatures
than the GFS. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure will remain over the Inland Northwest
tonight and Monday for VFR conditions and light winds at all TAF
sites. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  82  52  85  57  82 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  46  81  48  85  53  82 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Pullman        39  84  48  86  53  83 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       51  89  57  92  61  89 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       41  84  44  87  51  83 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      36  77  40  80  48  79 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Kellogg        44  79  49  83  53  80 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Moses Lake     45  86  51  87  56  85 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      52  85  56  87  60  84 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           46  86  47  88  55  83 /   0   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 150405
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
903 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. SMOKE
FROM THE 36-PIT WILDFIRE WILL IMPACT AREAS OF NW OREGON AND SW
WASHINGTON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRUSH BY
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY TRIGGER SOME DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH
WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN OF LOW MARINE CLOUDS TO THE AREA...AND HELP
COOL TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN MID WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FRIDAY WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...IMPRESSIVE HEAT SIGNATURE IS SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE 11-3.9
UM FOG PRODUCT FROM THE 36 PIT FIRE...BURNING ABOUT 10 MILES SE OF
ESTACADA. AS A RESULT THIS FIRE CONTINUES TO SPEW OUT PLENTY OF
SMOKE. WITH ANOTHER WARM AND DRY NIGHT TONIGHT IT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A LARGE AMOUNT OF SMOKE OVERNIGHT. THIS SMOKE
WILL DRAIN DOWN THE CLACKAMAS RIVER DRAINAGE...LIKELY BECOMING DENSE
AS A DRAINAGE INVERSION DEVELOPS. THE SMOKE MAY STILL BE FAIRLY DENSE
AS IT COMES DOWN THE LOWER CLACKAMAS NEAR ESTACADA AND SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE PDX METRO AREA...BRINGING UP AIR QUALITY CONCERNS.
THE DAY SHIFT ISSUED AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING AIR QUALITY TO FOLKS WHICH
WAS A GOOD CALL. A GOOD WEBSITE TO VISIT FOR AIR QUALITY INFO IS
WWW.DEQ.STATE.OR.US/AQI/INDEX.ASPX

EVEN WHERE THE SMOKE IS NOT THICK ENOUGH TO RAISE AIR QUALITY
CONCERNS...IT WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SHADE THE SUN A GOOD BIT OF
THE DAY MONDAY. IN THE MORNING...OUTFLOW FROM THE CLACKAMAS RIVER
DRAINAGE WILL LIKELY SPREAD SMOKE THROUGHOUT THE PDX METRO AGAIN. IN
THE AFTERNOON...FLOW ALOFT WILL BE TURNING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY...
WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO SHADE THE SUN. AS A RESULT WE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPS A BIT FOR THE METRO AREA MONDAY...INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S. THE
EFFECT OF SMOKE ON TEMPS IS HARD TO PREDICT...SO IF THE SMOKE THINS
OUT A BIT MANY LOCATIONS COULD EXCEED 90 DEGREES MONDAY AFTERNOON.

IN ANOTHER INTERESTING TWIST IN THE MODELS...THE 00Z NAM SEEMS TO BE
BACKING OFF A BIT ON THE THREAT OF DRY THUNDER MON NIGHT. HOWEVER
LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IT APPEARS THE 00Z NAM IS WEAKENING
THE UPPER LOW PRESENTLY OFF CALIFORNIA MUCH TOO FAST. REGARDLESS
MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE OREGON
COAST AS AN OPEN TROUGH...WITH SOME DEGREE OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
THEREFORE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY THUNDER THROUGHOUT OUR FCST AREA
STILL LOOKS GOOD MON NIGHT.

EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS ON TRACK WITH THE OVERALL FORECAST. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE BUILDING ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THEREFORE FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED
TO CONSIDER WARMING UP FRI/SAT/SUN IF MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND.
WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 308 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

.SHORT TERM...DRY OFFSHORE FLOW IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL WINDS IS CARRYING SMOKE FROM THE 36-PIT
WILDFIRE LOCATED NEAR ESTACADA OREGON OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT IS SENDING SOME OF
THE SMOKE OVER THE WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE EXPECTED SMOKE ADVECTION FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

THE EASTERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT WEAK OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF MONDAY. EXPECT MONDAY TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER MONDAY...EXCEPT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND IN AREAS WHERE THICK SMOKE BLOCKS SOLAR
RADIATION.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 36N 136W WITH MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ENTRAINED AROUND IT. THIS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN SPREADING OVER NW OREGON FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW NEARS THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY
RESULT IN ELEVATED CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH BRUSHES OVER NW OREGON.

CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THESE STORMS MAY DEVELOP IS STILL LOW AS
ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS A WAY OF SPROUTING UP WHERE IT IS LEAST
EXPECTED. HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED THE CURRENT COVERAGE OF "ANYWHERE
IS POSSIBLE" MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE THAT
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO THE SOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH S-SE FLOW ALOFT MOVING THE THREAT NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

DUE TO VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...IT IS UNLIKELY THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MUCH...IF ANY...RAIN...WHICH IS CONCERNING
CONSIDERING THE EXTREMELY DRY FIRE FUELS ACROSS THE AREA.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL AND
POSSIBLY A STRATUS SURGE UP THE COAST MONDAY EVENING...POSSIBLY
PUSHING INLAND TUESDAY MORNING. AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON THE
COVERAGE OF INLAND LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING AS
SOMETIMES...SOUTHWEST WINDS LEADS TO MORE CLOUDS FOR THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY THAN THE NORTHERN. HOWEVER...IT ALL DEPENDS ON HOW
DEEP THE MARINE LAYER IS...AND WHETHER THE CLOUDS CAN EASILY MOVE
OVER THE COAST RANGE.  THE DEEPENING MARINE LAYER MAY EVEN
SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE FOR COASTAL AREAS.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXTENT OF CLOUDS...THE MARINE PUSH WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY...BACK TO THE LOW 80S INLAND AND
MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE COAST. ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE MARINE CLOUDS ALONG
THE COAST...AND POSSIBLY INLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SECOND TROUGH. NW OREGON WILL BE NEAR THE LEFT-FRONT EXIT REGION OF A
95+ KT 500MB JET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE MOISTURE AND
LIFT...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHERN
OREGON CASCADES LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TJ

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK
PROVIDING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
CASCADES ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT TO MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS
TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE CWA. /64

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY WITH A COUPLE
NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS. FIRST...KONP COULD SEE LIFR/IFR FOG PUSH INTO
THE TERMINAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT...BUT CURRENTLY
THINK LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS WILL HELP TO KEEP IT AWAY FROM THE
TERMINAL OVERNIGHT. IF IT DOES HOLD OUT...EXPECT LIFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS TO SPREAD INTO THE TERMINAL LATER MONDAY...AND LAST
WELL INTO MONDAY EVENING.

IN ADDITION...SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT FIRE BURNING NEAR ESTACADA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SEVERAL SMOKE LAYERS VARYING BETWEEN THE
GROUND LEVEL AROUND SALEM...AND TO NEARLY 10KFT AROUND MT
HOOD...WITH ONE CURRENTLY NEAR 5KFT AT KPDX. EXPECT THE THICKEST
SMOKE BELOW 3KFT TO PRIMARILY LIE BETWEEN ESTACADA...KPDX...KHIO
AND KSLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PUSH THE SMOKE OVER THE CASCADES
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. THE MAIN EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY WHEN SMOKE FROM THE
NEARBY 36 PIT FIRE POSSIBLY PRODUCES CEILINGS BETWEEN 1.5 TO 3KFT.
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE VISIBILITIES TO BE
REDUCED AS WELL. HOWEVER...TIMING THESE RESTRICTIONS IS LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF WINDS WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES DO NOT APPEAR
WARRANTED AT THIS POINT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD IMPACT THE WATERS AS THEY MOVE SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS
TI MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST IT WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE IMPACTING
OUR MARINE ZONES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HEADLINES MAY VERY
WELL NOT EVEN BE NEEDED WITH THIS SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE MAY BRING QUIET WINDS AND SEAS TO THE WATERS ONCE AGAIN
LATE NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ZONE 602-ZONE 603-
     ZONE 604-ZONE 605-ZONE 606-ZONE 607-ZONE 608.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ZONE 604-ZONE 660.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 150405
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
903 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. SMOKE
FROM THE 36-PIT WILDFIRE WILL IMPACT AREAS OF NW OREGON AND SW
WASHINGTON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRUSH BY
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY TRIGGER SOME DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH
WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN OF LOW MARINE CLOUDS TO THE AREA...AND HELP
COOL TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN MID WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FRIDAY WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...IMPRESSIVE HEAT SIGNATURE IS SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE 11-3.9
UM FOG PRODUCT FROM THE 36 PIT FIRE...BURNING ABOUT 10 MILES SE OF
ESTACADA. AS A RESULT THIS FIRE CONTINUES TO SPEW OUT PLENTY OF
SMOKE. WITH ANOTHER WARM AND DRY NIGHT TONIGHT IT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A LARGE AMOUNT OF SMOKE OVERNIGHT. THIS SMOKE
WILL DRAIN DOWN THE CLACKAMAS RIVER DRAINAGE...LIKELY BECOMING DENSE
AS A DRAINAGE INVERSION DEVELOPS. THE SMOKE MAY STILL BE FAIRLY DENSE
AS IT COMES DOWN THE LOWER CLACKAMAS NEAR ESTACADA AND SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE PDX METRO AREA...BRINGING UP AIR QUALITY CONCERNS.
THE DAY SHIFT ISSUED AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING AIR QUALITY TO FOLKS WHICH
WAS A GOOD CALL. A GOOD WEBSITE TO VISIT FOR AIR QUALITY INFO IS
WWW.DEQ.STATE.OR.US/AQI/INDEX.ASPX

EVEN WHERE THE SMOKE IS NOT THICK ENOUGH TO RAISE AIR QUALITY
CONCERNS...IT WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SHADE THE SUN A GOOD BIT OF
THE DAY MONDAY. IN THE MORNING...OUTFLOW FROM THE CLACKAMAS RIVER
DRAINAGE WILL LIKELY SPREAD SMOKE THROUGHOUT THE PDX METRO AGAIN. IN
THE AFTERNOON...FLOW ALOFT WILL BE TURNING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY...
WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO SHADE THE SUN. AS A RESULT WE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPS A BIT FOR THE METRO AREA MONDAY...INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S. THE
EFFECT OF SMOKE ON TEMPS IS HARD TO PREDICT...SO IF THE SMOKE THINS
OUT A BIT MANY LOCATIONS COULD EXCEED 90 DEGREES MONDAY AFTERNOON.

IN ANOTHER INTERESTING TWIST IN THE MODELS...THE 00Z NAM SEEMS TO BE
BACKING OFF A BIT ON THE THREAT OF DRY THUNDER MON NIGHT. HOWEVER
LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IT APPEARS THE 00Z NAM IS WEAKENING
THE UPPER LOW PRESENTLY OFF CALIFORNIA MUCH TOO FAST. REGARDLESS
MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE OREGON
COAST AS AN OPEN TROUGH...WITH SOME DEGREE OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
THEREFORE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY THUNDER THROUGHOUT OUR FCST AREA
STILL LOOKS GOOD MON NIGHT.

EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS ON TRACK WITH THE OVERALL FORECAST. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE BUILDING ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THEREFORE FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED
TO CONSIDER WARMING UP FRI/SAT/SUN IF MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND.
WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 308 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

.SHORT TERM...DRY OFFSHORE FLOW IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL WINDS IS CARRYING SMOKE FROM THE 36-PIT
WILDFIRE LOCATED NEAR ESTACADA OREGON OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT IS SENDING SOME OF
THE SMOKE OVER THE WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE EXPECTED SMOKE ADVECTION FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

THE EASTERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT WEAK OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF MONDAY. EXPECT MONDAY TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER MONDAY...EXCEPT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND IN AREAS WHERE THICK SMOKE BLOCKS SOLAR
RADIATION.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 36N 136W WITH MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ENTRAINED AROUND IT. THIS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN SPREADING OVER NW OREGON FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW NEARS THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY
RESULT IN ELEVATED CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH BRUSHES OVER NW OREGON.

CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THESE STORMS MAY DEVELOP IS STILL LOW AS
ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS A WAY OF SPROUTING UP WHERE IT IS LEAST
EXPECTED. HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED THE CURRENT COVERAGE OF "ANYWHERE
IS POSSIBLE" MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE THAT
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO THE SOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH S-SE FLOW ALOFT MOVING THE THREAT NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

DUE TO VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...IT IS UNLIKELY THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MUCH...IF ANY...RAIN...WHICH IS CONCERNING
CONSIDERING THE EXTREMELY DRY FIRE FUELS ACROSS THE AREA.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL AND
POSSIBLY A STRATUS SURGE UP THE COAST MONDAY EVENING...POSSIBLY
PUSHING INLAND TUESDAY MORNING. AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON THE
COVERAGE OF INLAND LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING AS
SOMETIMES...SOUTHWEST WINDS LEADS TO MORE CLOUDS FOR THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY THAN THE NORTHERN. HOWEVER...IT ALL DEPENDS ON HOW
DEEP THE MARINE LAYER IS...AND WHETHER THE CLOUDS CAN EASILY MOVE
OVER THE COAST RANGE.  THE DEEPENING MARINE LAYER MAY EVEN
SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE FOR COASTAL AREAS.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXTENT OF CLOUDS...THE MARINE PUSH WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY...BACK TO THE LOW 80S INLAND AND
MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE COAST. ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE MARINE CLOUDS ALONG
THE COAST...AND POSSIBLY INLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SECOND TROUGH. NW OREGON WILL BE NEAR THE LEFT-FRONT EXIT REGION OF A
95+ KT 500MB JET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE MOISTURE AND
LIFT...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHERN
OREGON CASCADES LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TJ

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK
PROVIDING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
CASCADES ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT TO MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS
TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE CWA. /64

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY WITH A COUPLE
NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS. FIRST...KONP COULD SEE LIFR/IFR FOG PUSH INTO
THE TERMINAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT...BUT CURRENTLY
THINK LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS WILL HELP TO KEEP IT AWAY FROM THE
TERMINAL OVERNIGHT. IF IT DOES HOLD OUT...EXPECT LIFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS TO SPREAD INTO THE TERMINAL LATER MONDAY...AND LAST
WELL INTO MONDAY EVENING.

IN ADDITION...SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT FIRE BURNING NEAR ESTACADA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SEVERAL SMOKE LAYERS VARYING BETWEEN THE
GROUND LEVEL AROUND SALEM...AND TO NEARLY 10KFT AROUND MT
HOOD...WITH ONE CURRENTLY NEAR 5KFT AT KPDX. EXPECT THE THICKEST
SMOKE BELOW 3KFT TO PRIMARILY LIE BETWEEN ESTACADA...KPDX...KHIO
AND KSLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PUSH THE SMOKE OVER THE CASCADES
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. THE MAIN EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY WHEN SMOKE FROM THE
NEARBY 36 PIT FIRE POSSIBLY PRODUCES CEILINGS BETWEEN 1.5 TO 3KFT.
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE VISIBILITIES TO BE
REDUCED AS WELL. HOWEVER...TIMING THESE RESTRICTIONS IS LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF WINDS WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES DO NOT APPEAR
WARRANTED AT THIS POINT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD IMPACT THE WATERS AS THEY MOVE SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS
TI MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST IT WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE IMPACTING
OUR MARINE ZONES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HEADLINES MAY VERY
WELL NOT EVEN BE NEEDED WITH THIS SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE MAY BRING QUIET WINDS AND SEAS TO THE WATERS ONCE AGAIN
LATE NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ZONE 602-ZONE 603-
     ZONE 604-ZONE 605-ZONE 606-ZONE 607-ZONE 608.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ZONE 604-ZONE 660.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 150255
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL BRING ANOTHER SUNNY WARM DAY ON MONDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST
MONDAY NIGHT. AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRIGGER
ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A COOLER MARINE AIR MASS AND
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON TUESDAY. CONTINUING
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER AND A LITTLE MORE
COOLING ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL USHER IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER WA THROUGH
MONDAY THEN SLIDE E OVER ID ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED THERMALLY
INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE WA COAST THIS EVENING AND SHOULD
SHIFT INLAND OVER W WA ON MONDAY. MAX TEMPS AWAY FROM WATER AREAS
WERE MAINLY IN THE 80S TODAY...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER 925 MB AND 850 MB
TEMPS ON MONDAY SUGGEST THAT MAX TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WARMER.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OVER ID MONDAY NIGHT...THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER W WA WILL SHIFT SW...ALLOWING A SMALL EJECTING
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE UP OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW WELL W OF THE CENTRAL CA COAST THIS EVENING
NEAR 36N/134W. MODELS WEAKEN THE LOW QUICKLY AS IT MOVES N OFF THE
OREGON COAST SO THE MAIN DIRECT IMPACT TO W WA SHOULD BE SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE INDIRECT
BUT GREATER IMPACT WILL BE THE SW MARINE PUSH THE APPROACHING LOW
KICKS OFF MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALL AGREE THAT SW ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT...STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING COOLER MARINE AIR
INLAND. BECAUSE OF THE TIMING OF THE EJECTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENT MODELS ARE SHOWING A LATER START TO THE PUSH SO THE STRATUS
WILL BE SHALLOW AND WILL PROBABLY ONLY MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL PUGET
SOUND AND PARTWAY THROUGH THE STRAIT BY TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST
NAM12 AND ARW-WEST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRATUS
COVERAGE...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER BUT NOT ROCK SOLID. BETWEEN THE
STRATUS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS...TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE PARTLY
SUNNY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD RETREAT TO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...A GOOD
8-14 DEGREE DROP.

WEAKER WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH
A MARINE AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE STRATUS SHOULD FORM THROUGHOUT W
WA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW WEDNESDAY...AND COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO THE EXTREME S PART OF THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 330 PM AFD...THE UPPER LOW
TO THE SW OF THE AREA WED AFTERNOON WILL OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AND
PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. THE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT PERIOD
APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT QPF VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT. LONGER RANGE
MODELS SHOW A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLED OVER VANCOUVER
ISLAND. IN THIS PATTERN...EXPECT CLOUDS AND A SHOWER THREAT TO
DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND. ALBRECHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE GENERAL WIND DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT
OF THE EAST THROUGH MID-DAY MONDAY...BUT SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT AND BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

HOWEVER...FUELS ARE NOW AT THEIR DRIEST POINT THIS SEASON. THE AIR
MASS WILL BE EVEN WARMER ON MONDAY...WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
SKIES WILL BE FULLY SUNNY...AND MID-LEVEL HAINES 5 AND 6 CONDITIONS
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT AN ACTIVE BURNING ENVIRONMENT...
ESPECIALLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET.

EVEN THOUGH THE LAST OF THE RED FLAG WARNINGS HAS JUST EXPIRED...
FOLKS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE CAREFUL WITH BURNING MATERIAL...AND
FIREFIGHTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVE FIRE BEHAVIOR WHEN
RESPONDING TO ANY NEW STARTS.   HANER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE ROCKIES BY TUESDAY. LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
AND THEN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT.

KSEA...CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT NLY BREEZE CONTINUE.

&&

.MARINE...THE THERMALLY INDUCED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
WILL SHIFT INLAND MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL TURN TO
LIGHT ONSHORE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
SHOULD WORK NORTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KSEW 150255
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL BRING ANOTHER SUNNY WARM DAY ON MONDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST
MONDAY NIGHT. AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRIGGER
ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A COOLER MARINE AIR MASS AND
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON TUESDAY. CONTINUING
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER AND A LITTLE MORE
COOLING ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL USHER IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER WA THROUGH
MONDAY THEN SLIDE E OVER ID ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED THERMALLY
INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE WA COAST THIS EVENING AND SHOULD
SHIFT INLAND OVER W WA ON MONDAY. MAX TEMPS AWAY FROM WATER AREAS
WERE MAINLY IN THE 80S TODAY...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER 925 MB AND 850 MB
TEMPS ON MONDAY SUGGEST THAT MAX TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WARMER.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OVER ID MONDAY NIGHT...THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER W WA WILL SHIFT SW...ALLOWING A SMALL EJECTING
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE UP OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW WELL W OF THE CENTRAL CA COAST THIS EVENING
NEAR 36N/134W. MODELS WEAKEN THE LOW QUICKLY AS IT MOVES N OFF THE
OREGON COAST SO THE MAIN DIRECT IMPACT TO W WA SHOULD BE SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE INDIRECT
BUT GREATER IMPACT WILL BE THE SW MARINE PUSH THE APPROACHING LOW
KICKS OFF MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALL AGREE THAT SW ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT...STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING COOLER MARINE AIR
INLAND. BECAUSE OF THE TIMING OF THE EJECTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENT MODELS ARE SHOWING A LATER START TO THE PUSH SO THE STRATUS
WILL BE SHALLOW AND WILL PROBABLY ONLY MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL PUGET
SOUND AND PARTWAY THROUGH THE STRAIT BY TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST
NAM12 AND ARW-WEST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRATUS
COVERAGE...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER BUT NOT ROCK SOLID. BETWEEN THE
STRATUS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS...TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE PARTLY
SUNNY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD RETREAT TO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...A GOOD
8-14 DEGREE DROP.

WEAKER WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH
A MARINE AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE STRATUS SHOULD FORM THROUGHOUT W
WA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW WEDNESDAY...AND COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO THE EXTREME S PART OF THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 330 PM AFD...THE UPPER LOW
TO THE SW OF THE AREA WED AFTERNOON WILL OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AND
PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. THE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT PERIOD
APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT QPF VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT. LONGER RANGE
MODELS SHOW A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLED OVER VANCOUVER
ISLAND. IN THIS PATTERN...EXPECT CLOUDS AND A SHOWER THREAT TO
DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND. ALBRECHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE GENERAL WIND DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT
OF THE EAST THROUGH MID-DAY MONDAY...BUT SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT AND BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

HOWEVER...FUELS ARE NOW AT THEIR DRIEST POINT THIS SEASON. THE AIR
MASS WILL BE EVEN WARMER ON MONDAY...WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
SKIES WILL BE FULLY SUNNY...AND MID-LEVEL HAINES 5 AND 6 CONDITIONS
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT AN ACTIVE BURNING ENVIRONMENT...
ESPECIALLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET.

EVEN THOUGH THE LAST OF THE RED FLAG WARNINGS HAS JUST EXPIRED...
FOLKS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE CAREFUL WITH BURNING MATERIAL...AND
FIREFIGHTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVE FIRE BEHAVIOR WHEN
RESPONDING TO ANY NEW STARTS.   HANER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE ROCKIES BY TUESDAY. LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
AND THEN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT.

KSEA...CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT NLY BREEZE CONTINUE.

&&

.MARINE...THE THERMALLY INDUCED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
WILL SHIFT INLAND MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL TURN TO
LIGHT ONSHORE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
SHOULD WORK NORTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KOTX 142331
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
431 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm weather is expected to continue over the Inland
Northwest through at least Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure
builds over the region. A cold front will brush the region
Wednesday night into Thursday. This will result in a chance of
rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two. The second half
of the week may become breezy with temperatures cooling toward
normal. The ridge will rebuild for the weekend with dry conditions
and warming temperatures.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday night...High pressure will remain strong
over the Pacific Northwest tonight through Tuesday. The ridge
does begin to push eastward as a weak wave runs up the backside of
the ridge Monday night. A much stronger...but splitting trough is
expected to move into the west coast late in the day Wednesday.

Tonight through Tuesday...Continued warm and dry with temperatures
climbing into the low to mid 80s. This is 10-12 degrees above
seasonal averages. In addition a weak northeast-east surface
gradient will keep light northeast winds in the region through
Tuesday. The weak wave that moves north just off the Washington
coast will have little effect on the Inland Northwest save for
possibly increased clouds over the Cascades.

Tuesday night...The flow turns southwest and will tap into deeper
Pacific moisture. The NAM and GFS are showing some moisture
advection and weak instability around 10k feet moving through the
Blue mountains and Camas Prairie. The only thing that is lacking
is a decent wave to kick parcel high enough into the atmosphere to
tap into the mid level instability. Pops were bumped up a little
bit but the weather was kept as showers and held off on
thunderstorms overnight. It may end up just being some increased
mid level clouds. Any precipitation that does fall will be very
light or virga as the sub-cloud layer is extremely dry.

Wednesday and Wednesday night there will be a better chance for
showers and again possible thunderstorms. The models are showing
the trough splitting...with the best forcing going north into B.C.
and a secondary area remaining south in Oregon. Southwest flow
will definitely pump up enough moisture to sustain showers for the
mountains surrounding the Columbia basin and Palouse.
Precipitation for the mountains should stay below a tenth of an
inch. The front or what resembles a front will just sag into the
region and while southwest winds will be on the increase they
should remain 10-15 mph or less. Temperatures will be on the
decline Wednesday but remain on the warm side of normal. /Tobin

Thursday through Sunday...Unsettled weather will affect portions
of the Inland Northwest Thursday into Thursday night as a trough
of low pressure moves through the region. Medium range models are
in better agreement on split flow with the trough, keeping most of
the energy in the base of the trough that will slide down the
Oregon and California coasts. There will still be a good chance of
some precipitation for the higher elevations across the forecast
area but with the flow looking more westerly, the basin and east
slopes may get rain-shadowed. Once the trough axis moves east
Friday morning, a drying and warming trend will commence. How warm
it gets over the weekend will depend on the strength of the ridge.
The ECMWF is more bullish with the ridge and warming temperatures
than the GFS. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: High pressure will remain over the Inland Northwest
tonight and Monday for VFR conditions at all TAF. winds will be
light northeast to east with clear skies. /Tobin




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  82  52  85  57  82 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  46  81  48  85  53  82 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Pullman        39  84  48  86  53  83 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       51  89  57  92  61  89 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       41  84  44  87  51  83 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      36  77  40  80  48  79 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Kellogg        44  79  49  83  53  80 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Moses Lake     45  86  51  87  56  85 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      52  85  56  87  60  84 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           46  86  47  88  55  83 /   0   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 142331
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
431 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm weather is expected to continue over the Inland
Northwest through at least Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure
builds over the region. A cold front will brush the region
Wednesday night into Thursday. This will result in a chance of
rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two. The second half
of the week may become breezy with temperatures cooling toward
normal. The ridge will rebuild for the weekend with dry conditions
and warming temperatures.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday night...High pressure will remain strong
over the Pacific Northwest tonight through Tuesday. The ridge
does begin to push eastward as a weak wave runs up the backside of
the ridge Monday night. A much stronger...but splitting trough is
expected to move into the west coast late in the day Wednesday.

Tonight through Tuesday...Continued warm and dry with temperatures
climbing into the low to mid 80s. This is 10-12 degrees above
seasonal averages. In addition a weak northeast-east surface
gradient will keep light northeast winds in the region through
Tuesday. The weak wave that moves north just off the Washington
coast will have little effect on the Inland Northwest save for
possibly increased clouds over the Cascades.

Tuesday night...The flow turns southwest and will tap into deeper
Pacific moisture. The NAM and GFS are showing some moisture
advection and weak instability around 10k feet moving through the
Blue mountains and Camas Prairie. The only thing that is lacking
is a decent wave to kick parcel high enough into the atmosphere to
tap into the mid level instability. Pops were bumped up a little
bit but the weather was kept as showers and held off on
thunderstorms overnight. It may end up just being some increased
mid level clouds. Any precipitation that does fall will be very
light or virga as the sub-cloud layer is extremely dry.

Wednesday and Wednesday night there will be a better chance for
showers and again possible thunderstorms. The models are showing
the trough splitting...with the best forcing going north into B.C.
and a secondary area remaining south in Oregon. Southwest flow
will definitely pump up enough moisture to sustain showers for the
mountains surrounding the Columbia basin and Palouse.
Precipitation for the mountains should stay below a tenth of an
inch. The front or what resembles a front will just sag into the
region and while southwest winds will be on the increase they
should remain 10-15 mph or less. Temperatures will be on the
decline Wednesday but remain on the warm side of normal. /Tobin

Thursday through Sunday...Unsettled weather will affect portions
of the Inland Northwest Thursday into Thursday night as a trough
of low pressure moves through the region. Medium range models are
in better agreement on split flow with the trough, keeping most of
the energy in the base of the trough that will slide down the
Oregon and California coasts. There will still be a good chance of
some precipitation for the higher elevations across the forecast
area but with the flow looking more westerly, the basin and east
slopes may get rain-shadowed. Once the trough axis moves east
Friday morning, a drying and warming trend will commence. How warm
it gets over the weekend will depend on the strength of the ridge.
The ECMWF is more bullish with the ridge and warming temperatures
than the GFS. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: High pressure will remain over the Inland Northwest
tonight and Monday for VFR conditions at all TAF. winds will be
light northeast to east with clear skies. /Tobin




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  82  52  85  57  82 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  46  81  48  85  53  82 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Pullman        39  84  48  86  53  83 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       51  89  57  92  61  89 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       41  84  44  87  51  83 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      36  77  40  80  48  79 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Kellogg        44  79  49  83  53  80 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Moses Lake     45  86  51  87  56  85 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      52  85  56  87  60  84 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           46  86  47  88  55  83 /   0   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 142331
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
431 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm weather is expected to continue over the Inland
Northwest through at least Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure
builds over the region. A cold front will brush the region
Wednesday night into Thursday. This will result in a chance of
rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two. The second half
of the week may become breezy with temperatures cooling toward
normal. The ridge will rebuild for the weekend with dry conditions
and warming temperatures.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday night...High pressure will remain strong
over the Pacific Northwest tonight through Tuesday. The ridge
does begin to push eastward as a weak wave runs up the backside of
the ridge Monday night. A much stronger...but splitting trough is
expected to move into the west coast late in the day Wednesday.

Tonight through Tuesday...Continued warm and dry with temperatures
climbing into the low to mid 80s. This is 10-12 degrees above
seasonal averages. In addition a weak northeast-east surface
gradient will keep light northeast winds in the region through
Tuesday. The weak wave that moves north just off the Washington
coast will have little effect on the Inland Northwest save for
possibly increased clouds over the Cascades.

Tuesday night...The flow turns southwest and will tap into deeper
Pacific moisture. The NAM and GFS are showing some moisture
advection and weak instability around 10k feet moving through the
Blue mountains and Camas Prairie. The only thing that is lacking
is a decent wave to kick parcel high enough into the atmosphere to
tap into the mid level instability. Pops were bumped up a little
bit but the weather was kept as showers and held off on
thunderstorms overnight. It may end up just being some increased
mid level clouds. Any precipitation that does fall will be very
light or virga as the sub-cloud layer is extremely dry.

Wednesday and Wednesday night there will be a better chance for
showers and again possible thunderstorms. The models are showing
the trough splitting...with the best forcing going north into B.C.
and a secondary area remaining south in Oregon. Southwest flow
will definitely pump up enough moisture to sustain showers for the
mountains surrounding the Columbia basin and Palouse.
Precipitation for the mountains should stay below a tenth of an
inch. The front or what resembles a front will just sag into the
region and while southwest winds will be on the increase they
should remain 10-15 mph or less. Temperatures will be on the
decline Wednesday but remain on the warm side of normal. /Tobin

Thursday through Sunday...Unsettled weather will affect portions
of the Inland Northwest Thursday into Thursday night as a trough
of low pressure moves through the region. Medium range models are
in better agreement on split flow with the trough, keeping most of
the energy in the base of the trough that will slide down the
Oregon and California coasts. There will still be a good chance of
some precipitation for the higher elevations across the forecast
area but with the flow looking more westerly, the basin and east
slopes may get rain-shadowed. Once the trough axis moves east
Friday morning, a drying and warming trend will commence. How warm
it gets over the weekend will depend on the strength of the ridge.
The ECMWF is more bullish with the ridge and warming temperatures
than the GFS. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: High pressure will remain over the Inland Northwest
tonight and Monday for VFR conditions at all TAF. winds will be
light northeast to east with clear skies. /Tobin




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  82  52  85  57  82 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  46  81  48  85  53  82 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Pullman        39  84  48  86  53  83 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       51  89  57  92  61  89 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       41  84  44  87  51  83 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      36  77  40  80  48  79 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Kellogg        44  79  49  83  53  80 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Moses Lake     45  86  51  87  56  85 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      52  85  56  87  60  84 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           46  86  47  88  55  83 /   0   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 142331
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
431 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm weather is expected to continue over the Inland
Northwest through at least Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure
builds over the region. A cold front will brush the region
Wednesday night into Thursday. This will result in a chance of
rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two. The second half
of the week may become breezy with temperatures cooling toward
normal. The ridge will rebuild for the weekend with dry conditions
and warming temperatures.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday night...High pressure will remain strong
over the Pacific Northwest tonight through Tuesday. The ridge
does begin to push eastward as a weak wave runs up the backside of
the ridge Monday night. A much stronger...but splitting trough is
expected to move into the west coast late in the day Wednesday.

Tonight through Tuesday...Continued warm and dry with temperatures
climbing into the low to mid 80s. This is 10-12 degrees above
seasonal averages. In addition a weak northeast-east surface
gradient will keep light northeast winds in the region through
Tuesday. The weak wave that moves north just off the Washington
coast will have little effect on the Inland Northwest save for
possibly increased clouds over the Cascades.

Tuesday night...The flow turns southwest and will tap into deeper
Pacific moisture. The NAM and GFS are showing some moisture
advection and weak instability around 10k feet moving through the
Blue mountains and Camas Prairie. The only thing that is lacking
is a decent wave to kick parcel high enough into the atmosphere to
tap into the mid level instability. Pops were bumped up a little
bit but the weather was kept as showers and held off on
thunderstorms overnight. It may end up just being some increased
mid level clouds. Any precipitation that does fall will be very
light or virga as the sub-cloud layer is extremely dry.

Wednesday and Wednesday night there will be a better chance for
showers and again possible thunderstorms. The models are showing
the trough splitting...with the best forcing going north into B.C.
and a secondary area remaining south in Oregon. Southwest flow
will definitely pump up enough moisture to sustain showers for the
mountains surrounding the Columbia basin and Palouse.
Precipitation for the mountains should stay below a tenth of an
inch. The front or what resembles a front will just sag into the
region and while southwest winds will be on the increase they
should remain 10-15 mph or less. Temperatures will be on the
decline Wednesday but remain on the warm side of normal. /Tobin

Thursday through Sunday...Unsettled weather will affect portions
of the Inland Northwest Thursday into Thursday night as a trough
of low pressure moves through the region. Medium range models are
in better agreement on split flow with the trough, keeping most of
the energy in the base of the trough that will slide down the
Oregon and California coasts. There will still be a good chance of
some precipitation for the higher elevations across the forecast
area but with the flow looking more westerly, the basin and east
slopes may get rain-shadowed. Once the trough axis moves east
Friday morning, a drying and warming trend will commence. How warm
it gets over the weekend will depend on the strength of the ridge.
The ECMWF is more bullish with the ridge and warming temperatures
than the GFS. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: High pressure will remain over the Inland Northwest
tonight and Monday for VFR conditions at all TAF. winds will be
light northeast to east with clear skies. /Tobin




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  82  52  85  57  82 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  46  81  48  85  53  82 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Pullman        39  84  48  86  53  83 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       51  89  57  92  61  89 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       41  84  44  87  51  83 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      36  77  40  80  48  79 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Kellogg        44  79  49  83  53  80 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Moses Lake     45  86  51  87  56  85 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      52  85  56  87  60  84 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           46  86  47  88  55  83 /   0   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 142208
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
308 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND MONDAY.
SMOKE FROM THE 36-PIT WILDFIRE WILL IMPACT AREAS OF NW OREGON AND SW
WASHINGTON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRUSH BY
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY TRIGGER SOME DRY THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING A
RETURN OF LOW MARINE CLOUDS TO THE AREA...AND HELP COOL TEMPERATURES
FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMSAND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD FRIDAY WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...DRY OFFSHORE FLOW IS MAINTAING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL WINDS IS CARRYING SMOKE FROM THE 36-PIT
WILDFIRE LOCATED NEAR ESTACADA OREGON OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT IS SENDING SOME OF
THE SMOKE OVER THE WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE EXPECTED SMOKE ADVECTION FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

THE EASTERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT WEAK OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF MONDAY. EXPECT MONDAY TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER MONDAY...EXCEPT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND IN AREAS WHERE THICK SMOKE BLOCKS SOLAR
RADIATION.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 36N 136W WITH MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ENTRAINED AROUND IT. THIS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN SPREADING OVER NW OREGON FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW NEARS THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY
RESULT IN ELEVATED CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH BRUSHES OVER NW OREGON.

CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THESE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ARE STILL LOW AS
ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS A WAY OF SPROUTING UP WHERE IT IS LEAST
EXPECTED. HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED THE CURRENT COVERAGE OF "ANYWHERE
IS POSSIBLE" MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE THAT
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO THE SOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH S-SE FLOW ALOFT MOVING THE THREAT NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

DUE TO VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...IT IS UNLIKELY THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MUCH...IF ANY...RAIN...WHICH IS CONCERNING
CONSIDERING THE EXTREMELY DRY FIRE FUELS ACROSS THE AREA.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL AND
POSSIBLY A STRATUS SURGE UP THE COAST MONDAY EVENING...POSSIBLY
PUSHING INLAND TUESDAY MORNING. AM NOT VERY CONFIDENET ON THE
COVERAGE OF INLAND LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING AS
SOMETIMES...SOUTHWEST WINDS LEADS TO MORE CLOUDS FOR THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY THAN THE NORTHERN. HOWEVER...IT ALL DEPENDS ON HOW
DEEP THE MARINE LAYER IS...AND WHETHER THE CLOUDS CAN EASILY MOVE
OVER THE COAST RANGE.  THE DEEPENING MARINE LAYER MAY EVEN
SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE FOR COASTAL AREAS.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXTENT OF CLOUDS...THE MARINE PUSH WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY...BACK TO THE LOW 80S INLAND AND
MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE COAST. ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE MARINE CLOUDS ALONG
THE COAST...AND POSSIBLY INLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SECOND TROUGH. NW OREGON WILL BE NEAR THE LEFT-FRONT EXIT REGION OF A
95+ KT 500MB JET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE MOISTURE AND
LIFT...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHERN
OREGON CASCADES LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TJ

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK
PROVIDING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
CASCADES ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT TO MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS
TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE CWA. /64

&&

.AVIATION...THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND TO THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST AND EAST FLOW
OVER THE CASCADES. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SMOKE FROM
THE WILDFIRE EAST OF ESTACADA WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM FOR
AVIATION NEAR THE FIRE. SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT WILL DRIFT TO THE NORTH
AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT THE SMOKE TO BECOME MORE
CONCENTRATED OVERNIGHT AS THE AIR STABILIZES SOME WITH POOLING OF
SMOKE IN THE CLACKAMAS RIVER DRAINAGE. SOME EAST WIND DRIFT WILL
LIKELY BRING MORE SMOKE INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AND
MON MORNING THERE WILL BE IFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE FIRE AND COULD BE
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VIS OFF TO THE WEST AND OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTH AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY...HOWEVER SMOKE MOVEMENT AND
EXTENT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT TOO HIGH ON
SPECIFIC SMOKE FORECAST.

A WIND REVERSAL TO SOUTHERLY WIND ALONG THE COAST IS EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE APPROACHES. THIS WILL
LIKELY BRING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO THE COAST...BUT EXACT TIMING
IS DIFFICULT. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF GETTING SOME FOG ON THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST 10Z-15Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. EXPECT SOME LAYERS OF SMOKE TO
MOVE OVER THE APPROACHES FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND THROUGH MON MORNING
AS A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WATERS OR
JUST ONSHORE. AN APPROACHING LOW PRES SYSTEM LEAD TO DEVELOPING SW
WINDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE MON INTO TUE MORNING...AND BRING
THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN STRENGTH LATER TUE...WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT
POSSIBLE. A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY BRING BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ON WED...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYSTEM ARE LOW AT THIS POINT. EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO
REDEVELOP OVER THE WATERS SOMETIME LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT
WEEKEND.

THERE ARE CURRENTLY TWO SWELLS MOVING OVER THE WATERS. A SOUTHWEST
LONG PERIOD SWELL ABOUT 2 FEET AND A SHORT PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL
2 TO 3 FEET. THE ENP MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SOUTHWEST SWELL
BEING THE DOMINANT. FOR RIGHT NOW I THINK THE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
DOMINATE BUT THE SOUTHWEST SWELL MAY BECOME DOMINATE AS THE
NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. SEAS SHOULD INCREASE TO 6 TO 7 FT
AGAIN BY TUE AND WED BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ZONE 602-ZONE
     603-ZONE 604-ZONE 605-ZONE 606-ZONE 607-ZONE 608.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ZONE 604-ZONE
     660.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 142208
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
308 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND MONDAY.
SMOKE FROM THE 36-PIT WILDFIRE WILL IMPACT AREAS OF NW OREGON AND SW
WASHINGTON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRUSH BY
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY TRIGGER SOME DRY THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING A
RETURN OF LOW MARINE CLOUDS TO THE AREA...AND HELP COOL TEMPERATURES
FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMSAND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD FRIDAY WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...DRY OFFSHORE FLOW IS MAINTAING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL WINDS IS CARRYING SMOKE FROM THE 36-PIT
WILDFIRE LOCATED NEAR ESTACADA OREGON OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT IS SENDING SOME OF
THE SMOKE OVER THE WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE EXPECTED SMOKE ADVECTION FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

THE EASTERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT WEAK OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF MONDAY. EXPECT MONDAY TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER MONDAY...EXCEPT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND IN AREAS WHERE THICK SMOKE BLOCKS SOLAR
RADIATION.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 36N 136W WITH MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ENTRAINED AROUND IT. THIS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN SPREADING OVER NW OREGON FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW NEARS THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY
RESULT IN ELEVATED CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH BRUSHES OVER NW OREGON.

CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THESE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ARE STILL LOW AS
ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS A WAY OF SPROUTING UP WHERE IT IS LEAST
EXPECTED. HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED THE CURRENT COVERAGE OF "ANYWHERE
IS POSSIBLE" MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE THAT
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO THE SOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH S-SE FLOW ALOFT MOVING THE THREAT NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

DUE TO VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...IT IS UNLIKELY THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MUCH...IF ANY...RAIN...WHICH IS CONCERNING
CONSIDERING THE EXTREMELY DRY FIRE FUELS ACROSS THE AREA.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL AND
POSSIBLY A STRATUS SURGE UP THE COAST MONDAY EVENING...POSSIBLY
PUSHING INLAND TUESDAY MORNING. AM NOT VERY CONFIDENET ON THE
COVERAGE OF INLAND LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING AS
SOMETIMES...SOUTHWEST WINDS LEADS TO MORE CLOUDS FOR THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY THAN THE NORTHERN. HOWEVER...IT ALL DEPENDS ON HOW
DEEP THE MARINE LAYER IS...AND WHETHER THE CLOUDS CAN EASILY MOVE
OVER THE COAST RANGE.  THE DEEPENING MARINE LAYER MAY EVEN
SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE FOR COASTAL AREAS.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXTENT OF CLOUDS...THE MARINE PUSH WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY...BACK TO THE LOW 80S INLAND AND
MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE COAST. ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE MARINE CLOUDS ALONG
THE COAST...AND POSSIBLY INLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SECOND TROUGH. NW OREGON WILL BE NEAR THE LEFT-FRONT EXIT REGION OF A
95+ KT 500MB JET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE MOISTURE AND
LIFT...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHERN
OREGON CASCADES LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TJ

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK
PROVIDING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
CASCADES ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT TO MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS
TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE CWA. /64

&&

.AVIATION...THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND TO THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST AND EAST FLOW
OVER THE CASCADES. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SMOKE FROM
THE WILDFIRE EAST OF ESTACADA WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM FOR
AVIATION NEAR THE FIRE. SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT WILL DRIFT TO THE NORTH
AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT THE SMOKE TO BECOME MORE
CONCENTRATED OVERNIGHT AS THE AIR STABILIZES SOME WITH POOLING OF
SMOKE IN THE CLACKAMAS RIVER DRAINAGE. SOME EAST WIND DRIFT WILL
LIKELY BRING MORE SMOKE INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AND
MON MORNING THERE WILL BE IFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE FIRE AND COULD BE
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VIS OFF TO THE WEST AND OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTH AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY...HOWEVER SMOKE MOVEMENT AND
EXTENT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT TOO HIGH ON
SPECIFIC SMOKE FORECAST.

A WIND REVERSAL TO SOUTHERLY WIND ALONG THE COAST IS EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE APPROACHES. THIS WILL
LIKELY BRING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO THE COAST...BUT EXACT TIMING
IS DIFFICULT. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF GETTING SOME FOG ON THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST 10Z-15Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. EXPECT SOME LAYERS OF SMOKE TO
MOVE OVER THE APPROACHES FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND THROUGH MON MORNING
AS A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WATERS OR
JUST ONSHORE. AN APPROACHING LOW PRES SYSTEM LEAD TO DEVELOPING SW
WINDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE MON INTO TUE MORNING...AND BRING
THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN STRENGTH LATER TUE...WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT
POSSIBLE. A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY BRING BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ON WED...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYSTEM ARE LOW AT THIS POINT. EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO
REDEVELOP OVER THE WATERS SOMETIME LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT
WEEKEND.

THERE ARE CURRENTLY TWO SWELLS MOVING OVER THE WATERS. A SOUTHWEST
LONG PERIOD SWELL ABOUT 2 FEET AND A SHORT PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL
2 TO 3 FEET. THE ENP MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SOUTHWEST SWELL
BEING THE DOMINANT. FOR RIGHT NOW I THINK THE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
DOMINATE BUT THE SOUTHWEST SWELL MAY BECOME DOMINATE AS THE
NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. SEAS SHOULD INCREASE TO 6 TO 7 FT
AGAIN BY TUE AND WED BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ZONE 602-ZONE
     603-ZONE 604-ZONE 605-ZONE 606-ZONE 607-ZONE 608.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ZONE 604-ZONE
     660.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 142207
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL GIVE DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHIFTS INLAND...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST...AND MARINE AIR PUSHES INTO THE INTERIOR
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. COOLER WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS IS
FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
FEW WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER RIDGE SITTING OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
SHIFT INLAND EARLY MONDAY THEN EAST OF THE CASCADES MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND MONDAY NIGHT. A THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS
SITTING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE OREGON COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND MONDAY THEN
EAST OF THE CASCADES MONDAY EVENING. WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVING
INLAND...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER
TONIGHT MOST PLACES...AND ABOUT 5 DEGREES HIGHER IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER OUTLYING VALLEY LOCATIONS. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASING FROM AROUND 16C TO AROUND 20C MONDAY
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST TO REACH WELL
INTO THE 80S ON MONDAY WITH A FEW SOUTH INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
PLACES NEAR THE CASCADES REACHING 90 DEGREES. BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
WARMTH FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON IS NOT THAT HIGH AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VERTICAL MIXING WEAK. WE ARE GETTING INTO THE TIME OF YEAR WHEN
SOLAR INSOLATION IS BECOMING MUCH WEAKER BY THE DAY AND GOOD
OFFSHORE FLOW IS REQUIRED TO GET THE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S
OR AROUND 90 DEGREES.

A 572 DAM 500 MB LOW SITTING NEAR 37N 138W IS FORECAST BY SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TO OPEN UP AND EJECT NWD THROUGH THE OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN THRU THE WASHINGTON COASTAL WATERS TUE
MORNING. THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER
OVER THE OREGON COASTAL WATERS AND INDUCE A MARINE PUSH MONDAY
EVENING. THE WARMTH IN THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY WILL HELP TO ENHANCE
THE ONSHORE GRADIENTS MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOME
INSTABILITY ALOFT TUE...EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BREAK MIDDAY IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE MARINE AIR WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 70S - 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY. MOISTURE ALOFT
MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE LIMITED TO ABOVE
10000 FT AND MU CAPE VALUES ARE MINIMAL OVER THE AREA AS THE TROUGH
PASSES...SO TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL GIVE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...ONLY SOME
MARINE CLOUDS...TO THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WED. A
SECOND UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE DAY
WED BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW TO THE SW OF THE AREA WED AFTERNOON WILL
OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AND PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. THE WED NIGHT
THROUGH THU NIGHT PERIOD APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT QPF VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE RATHER LIGHT. LONGER RANGE MODELS SHOW A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM STALLED OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. IN THIS PATTERN...EXPECT
CLOUDS AND A SHOWER THREAT TO DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND. ALBRECHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE GENERAL WIND DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT
OF THE EAST THROUGH MID-DAY MONDAY...BUT SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT AND BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

HOWEVER...FUELS ARE NOW AT THEIR DRIEST POINT THIS SEASON. THE AIR
MASS WILL BE EVEN WARMER ON MONDAY...WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
SKIES WILL BE FULLY SUNNY...AND MID-LEVEL HAINES 5 AND 6 CONDITIONS
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT AN ACTIVE BURNING ENVIRONMENT...
ESPECIALLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET.

EVEN THOUGH THE LAST OF THE RED FLAG WARNINGS HAS JUST EXPIRED...
FOLKS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE CAREFUL WITH BURNING MATERIAL...AND
FIREFIGHTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVE FIRE BEHAVIOR WHEN
RESPONDING TO ANY NEW STARTS.   HANER

&&

.AVIATION...THE OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

KSEA...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT NLY THRU MON MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN
MON... ALLOWING HIGHER PRES TO BUILD OVER OREGON MON NIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT ONSHORE OR SOUTHERLY FLOW. A
1011 MB HIGH ON THE WASHINGTON COAST AND LOW PRES E OF THE CASCADES
ON TUE WILL KEEP THE FLOW ONSHORE.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KSEW 142207
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL GIVE DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHIFTS INLAND...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST...AND MARINE AIR PUSHES INTO THE INTERIOR
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. COOLER WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS IS
FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
FEW WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER RIDGE SITTING OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
SHIFT INLAND EARLY MONDAY THEN EAST OF THE CASCADES MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND MONDAY NIGHT. A THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS
SITTING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE OREGON COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND MONDAY THEN
EAST OF THE CASCADES MONDAY EVENING. WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVING
INLAND...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER
TONIGHT MOST PLACES...AND ABOUT 5 DEGREES HIGHER IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER OUTLYING VALLEY LOCATIONS. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASING FROM AROUND 16C TO AROUND 20C MONDAY
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST TO REACH WELL
INTO THE 80S ON MONDAY WITH A FEW SOUTH INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
PLACES NEAR THE CASCADES REACHING 90 DEGREES. BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
WARMTH FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON IS NOT THAT HIGH AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VERTICAL MIXING WEAK. WE ARE GETTING INTO THE TIME OF YEAR WHEN
SOLAR INSOLATION IS BECOMING MUCH WEAKER BY THE DAY AND GOOD
OFFSHORE FLOW IS REQUIRED TO GET THE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S
OR AROUND 90 DEGREES.

A 572 DAM 500 MB LOW SITTING NEAR 37N 138W IS FORECAST BY SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TO OPEN UP AND EJECT NWD THROUGH THE OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN THRU THE WASHINGTON COASTAL WATERS TUE
MORNING. THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER
OVER THE OREGON COASTAL WATERS AND INDUCE A MARINE PUSH MONDAY
EVENING. THE WARMTH IN THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY WILL HELP TO ENHANCE
THE ONSHORE GRADIENTS MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOME
INSTABILITY ALOFT TUE...EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BREAK MIDDAY IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE MARINE AIR WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 70S - 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY. MOISTURE ALOFT
MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE LIMITED TO ABOVE
10000 FT AND MU CAPE VALUES ARE MINIMAL OVER THE AREA AS THE TROUGH
PASSES...SO TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL GIVE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...ONLY SOME
MARINE CLOUDS...TO THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WED. A
SECOND UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE DAY
WED BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW TO THE SW OF THE AREA WED AFTERNOON WILL
OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AND PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. THE WED NIGHT
THROUGH THU NIGHT PERIOD APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT QPF VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE RATHER LIGHT. LONGER RANGE MODELS SHOW A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM STALLED OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. IN THIS PATTERN...EXPECT
CLOUDS AND A SHOWER THREAT TO DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND. ALBRECHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE GENERAL WIND DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT
OF THE EAST THROUGH MID-DAY MONDAY...BUT SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT AND BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

HOWEVER...FUELS ARE NOW AT THEIR DRIEST POINT THIS SEASON. THE AIR
MASS WILL BE EVEN WARMER ON MONDAY...WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
SKIES WILL BE FULLY SUNNY...AND MID-LEVEL HAINES 5 AND 6 CONDITIONS
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT AN ACTIVE BURNING ENVIRONMENT...
ESPECIALLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET.

EVEN THOUGH THE LAST OF THE RED FLAG WARNINGS HAS JUST EXPIRED...
FOLKS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE CAREFUL WITH BURNING MATERIAL...AND
FIREFIGHTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVE FIRE BEHAVIOR WHEN
RESPONDING TO ANY NEW STARTS.   HANER

&&

.AVIATION...THE OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

KSEA...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT NLY THRU MON MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN
MON... ALLOWING HIGHER PRES TO BUILD OVER OREGON MON NIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT ONSHORE OR SOUTHERLY FLOW. A
1011 MB HIGH ON THE WASHINGTON COAST AND LOW PRES E OF THE CASCADES
ON TUE WILL KEEP THE FLOW ONSHORE.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KOTX 142146
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
245 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm weather is expected to continue over the Inland
Northwest through at least Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure
builds over the region. A cold front will brush the region
Wednesday night into Thursday. This will result in a chance of
rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two. The second half
of the week may become breezy with temperatures cooling toward
normal. The ridge will rebuild for the weekend with dry conditions
and warming temperatures.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday night...High pressure will remain strong
over the Pacific Northwest tonight through Tuesday. The ridge
does begin to push eastward as a weak wave runs up the backside of
the ridge Monday night. A much stronger...but splitting trough is
expected to move into the west coast late in the day Wednesday.

Tonight through Tuesday...Continued warm and dry with temperatures
climbing into the low to mid 80s. This is 10-12 degrees above
seasonal averages. In addition a weak northeast-east surface
gradient will keep light northeast winds in the region through
Tuesday. The weak wave that moves north just off the Washington
coast will have little effect on the Inland Northwest save for
possibly increased clouds over the Cascades.

Tuesday night...The flow turns southwest and will tap into deeper
Pacific moisture. The NAM and GFS are showing some moisture
advection and weak instability around 10k feet moving through the
Blue mountains and Camas Prairie. The only thing that is lacking
is a decent wave to kick parcel high enough into the atmosphere to
tap into the mid level instability. Pops were bumped up a little
bit but the weather was kept as showers and held off on
thunderstorms overnight. It may end up just being some increased
mid level clouds. Any precipitation that does fall will be very
light or virga as the sub-cloud layer is extremely dry.

Wednesday and Wednesday night there will be a better chance for
showers and again possible thunderstorms. The models are showing
the trough splitting...with the best forcing going north into B.C.
and a secondary area remaining south in Oregon. Southwest flow
will definitely pump up enough moisture to sustain showers for the
mountains surrounding the Columbia basin and Palouse.
Precipitation for the mountains should stay below a tenth of an
inch. The front or what resembles a front will just sag into the
region and while southwest winds will be on the increase they
should remain 10-15 mph or less. Temperatures will be on the
decline Wednesday but remain on the warm side of normal. /Tobin

Thursday through Sunday...Unsettled weather will affect portions
of the Inland Northwest Thursday into Thursday night as a trough
of low pressure moves through the region. Medium range models are
in better agreement on split flow with the trough, keeping most of
the energy in the base of the trough that will slide down the
Oregon and California coasts. There will still be a good chance of
some precipitation for the higher elevations across the forecast
area but with the flow looking more westerly, the basin and east
slopes may get rain-shadowed. Once the trough axis moves east
Friday morning, a drying and warming trend will commence. How warm
it gets over the weekend will depend on the strength of the ridge.
The ECMWF is more bullish with the ridge and warming temperatures
than the GFS. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High pressure will keep VFR conditions over the TAF
sites for the next 24 hours with light east to north winds and
mostly clear skies. / rfox




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  82  52  85  57  82 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  46  81  48  85  53  82 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Pullman        39  84  48  86  53  83 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       51  89  57  92  61  89 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       41  84  44  87  51  83 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      36  77  40  80  48  79 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Kellogg        44  79  49  83  53  80 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Moses Lake     45  86  51  87  56  85 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      52  85  56  87  60  84 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           46  86  47  88  55  83 /   0   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 142146
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
245 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm weather is expected to continue over the Inland
Northwest through at least Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure
builds over the region. A cold front will brush the region
Wednesday night into Thursday. This will result in a chance of
rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two. The second half
of the week may become breezy with temperatures cooling toward
normal. The ridge will rebuild for the weekend with dry conditions
and warming temperatures.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday night...High pressure will remain strong
over the Pacific Northwest tonight through Tuesday. The ridge
does begin to push eastward as a weak wave runs up the backside of
the ridge Monday night. A much stronger...but splitting trough is
expected to move into the west coast late in the day Wednesday.

Tonight through Tuesday...Continued warm and dry with temperatures
climbing into the low to mid 80s. This is 10-12 degrees above
seasonal averages. In addition a weak northeast-east surface
gradient will keep light northeast winds in the region through
Tuesday. The weak wave that moves north just off the Washington
coast will have little effect on the Inland Northwest save for
possibly increased clouds over the Cascades.

Tuesday night...The flow turns southwest and will tap into deeper
Pacific moisture. The NAM and GFS are showing some moisture
advection and weak instability around 10k feet moving through the
Blue mountains and Camas Prairie. The only thing that is lacking
is a decent wave to kick parcel high enough into the atmosphere to
tap into the mid level instability. Pops were bumped up a little
bit but the weather was kept as showers and held off on
thunderstorms overnight. It may end up just being some increased
mid level clouds. Any precipitation that does fall will be very
light or virga as the sub-cloud layer is extremely dry.

Wednesday and Wednesday night there will be a better chance for
showers and again possible thunderstorms. The models are showing
the trough splitting...with the best forcing going north into B.C.
and a secondary area remaining south in Oregon. Southwest flow
will definitely pump up enough moisture to sustain showers for the
mountains surrounding the Columbia basin and Palouse.
Precipitation for the mountains should stay below a tenth of an
inch. The front or what resembles a front will just sag into the
region and while southwest winds will be on the increase they
should remain 10-15 mph or less. Temperatures will be on the
decline Wednesday but remain on the warm side of normal. /Tobin

Thursday through Sunday...Unsettled weather will affect portions
of the Inland Northwest Thursday into Thursday night as a trough
of low pressure moves through the region. Medium range models are
in better agreement on split flow with the trough, keeping most of
the energy in the base of the trough that will slide down the
Oregon and California coasts. There will still be a good chance of
some precipitation for the higher elevations across the forecast
area but with the flow looking more westerly, the basin and east
slopes may get rain-shadowed. Once the trough axis moves east
Friday morning, a drying and warming trend will commence. How warm
it gets over the weekend will depend on the strength of the ridge.
The ECMWF is more bullish with the ridge and warming temperatures
than the GFS. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High pressure will keep VFR conditions over the TAF
sites for the next 24 hours with light east to north winds and
mostly clear skies. / rfox




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  82  52  85  57  82 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  46  81  48  85  53  82 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Pullman        39  84  48  86  53  83 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       51  89  57  92  61  89 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Colville       41  84  44  87  51  83 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      36  77  40  80  48  79 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Kellogg        44  79  49  83  53  80 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Moses Lake     45  86  51  87  56  85 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      52  85  56  87  60  84 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           46  86  47  88  55  83 /   0   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 141812 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1111 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND MONDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY
TRIGGER SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN OF LOW MARINE CLOUDS TO THE
AREA...AND HELP COOL TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE THE CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK WITH
POSSIBLY SOME RAIN ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FRIDAY
WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO TODAYS FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL
WILLAMETTE VALLEY DUE TO SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT FIRE CREATING SKY
COVER. THE INCREASED SKY COVER SHOULD REDUCE SOLAR RADIATION TO
AREAS IMPACTED BY THE SMOKE AND HAVE REDUCED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES. OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS ARE RUNNING 8
TO 12 DEGREES BELOW WHAT THEY WERE AT THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY. HAVE
ALSO INCREASED HUMIDITIES DUE TO A SIMILAR CHANGE IN OBSERVED DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR AREAS AROUND ESTACADA
TO MAKE IT INTO THE 90S...INCLUDING THOSE AREAS WHERE THE NE WINDS
HAVE BROUGHT SKY COVER TO LIKE MCMINNVILLE AND AURORA. TJ

.PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH SMOKE PLUMES FROM TWO LOCAL FIRES SHOWING AN
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE EASTERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
WEAKER THIS MORNING THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS...BUT ARE STILL
STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A SURFACE
THERMAL TROUGH IS OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS MORNING AND WILL
SUPPORT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
PEAK IN THE LOW 90S FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEY...WITH THE NORTH COAST
PEAKING MID 80S. THE CENTRAL OREGON COAT WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
ONSHORE FLOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PEAK IN THE LOWER 70S.

THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE MONDAY AS AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THE UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL ONLY ENHANCE TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA AND EXPECT EVEN WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE INTERIOR. THE COAST WILL HAVE LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES.

MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN
SPREADING OVER THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED CONVECTION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER NW
OREGON. CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THESE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ARE RELATIVELY
LOW AS ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS A WAY OF SPROUTING UP WHERE WE LEAST
EXPECT IT. HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED THE CURRENT COVERAGE OF "ANYWHERE
IS POSSIBLE". HOWEVER...THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE THAT THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO THE SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH S-SE
FLOW ALOFT MOVING THE THREAT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. DUE TO VERY
DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...IT IS UNLIKELY THESE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
PRODUCE MUCH...IF ANY RAIN...WHICH IS CONCERNING CONSIDERING THE
EXTREMELY DRY FIRE FUELS ACROSS THE AREA.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL AND
POSSIBLY A STRATUS SURGE UP THE COAST MONDAY EVENING...POSSIBLY
PUSHING INLAND TUESDAY MORNING. THE DEEPENING MARINE LAYER MAY EVEN
SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE FOR COASTAL AREAS. THE MARINE PUSH WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY...BACK TO THE LOW 80S INLAND AND
MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE COAST. ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINTAIN A DEEP MARINE
LAYER. THEREFORE EXPECT THE MARINE CLOUDS TO MOVE INLAND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. TJ

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO HINT AT AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. MOISTURE FROM THE MARINE SURGE ON TUESDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS CREATED A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THURSDAY.
STILL KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND
MOST OF FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE CWA. /64

&&

.AVIATION...THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING AND SHIFT TO THE WESTERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED SO VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. THERE WILL
BE SOME SMOKE LAYERS FROM THE FIRE BURNING IN THE FOOTHILLS EAST OF
ESTACADA. SMOKE WILL OBSCURE THE TERRAIN NEAR THE FIRE.  LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CARRY SMOKE SOWN THE CLACKAMAS RIVER DRAINAGE
AND INTO THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY...BUT WINDS ABOVE 5000 FEET
WILL CARRY THE HIGHER SMOKE LAYERS OFF THE THE NORTH NORTHEAST
THROUGH TODAY.

MODELS ARE FORECASTING A FLOW REVERSAL ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW
AND TOMORROW NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING BACK FOG/LOW STRATUS ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST...SPREADING NORTH TO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. EXPECT SOME LAYERS OF SMOKE TO
MOVE OVER THE APPROACHES TODAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND THROUGH MON MORNING AS
A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WATERS OR JUST
ONSHORE. AN APPROACHING LOW PRES SYSTEM LEAD TO DEVELOPING SW
WINDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE MON INTO TUE MORNING...AND BRING
THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN STRENGTH LATER TUE...WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT POSSIBLE.
A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY BRING BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS ON WED...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE LOW
AT THIS POINT. EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO REDEVELOP OVER THE WATERS
SOMETIME LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING AT 3 TO 4 FT WITH A FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD
NW SWELL. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH EARLY MON. THEN ANOTHER
LONG PERIOD SW SWELL TRAIN IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING THE DAY
MON. SEAS ARE FCST TO INCREASE TO 6 TO 7 TUE AND WED BEFORE
DROPPING AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONE 602-ZONE
     603-ZONE 604-ZONE 605-ZONE 606-ZONE 607-ZONE 608.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONE 604-ZONE
     660.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 141718
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1018 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE INLAND
NORTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO. THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK MAY BECOME BREEZY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING TOWARD
AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING 1
TO 4 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
/RFOX

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: HIGH PRESSURE KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE TAF SITES FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT EAST TO NORTH WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. /RFOX

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        77  49  83  52  85  57 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
COEUR D`ALENE  76  47  82  48  85  53 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
PULLMAN        78  42  85  48  86  52 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
LEWISTON       84  53  90  57  91  60 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
COLVILLE       80  43  84  43  87  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
SANDPOINT      73  39  78  40  80  49 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
KELLOGG        74  43  79  48  83  53 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
MOSES LAKE     83  47  87  51  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
WENATCHEE      81  54  86  57  86  60 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
OMAK           83  45  87  47  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 141718
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1018 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE INLAND
NORTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO. THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK MAY BECOME BREEZY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING TOWARD
AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING 1
TO 4 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
/RFOX

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: HIGH PRESSURE KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE TAF SITES FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT EAST TO NORTH WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. /RFOX

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        77  49  83  52  85  57 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
COEUR D`ALENE  76  47  82  48  85  53 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
PULLMAN        78  42  85  48  86  52 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
LEWISTON       84  53  90  57  91  60 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
COLVILLE       80  43  84  43  87  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
SANDPOINT      73  39  78  40  80  49 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
KELLOGG        74  43  79  48  83  53 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
MOSES LAKE     83  47  87  51  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
WENATCHEE      81  54  86  57  86  60 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
OMAK           83  45  87  47  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 141718
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1018 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE INLAND
NORTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO. THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK MAY BECOME BREEZY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING TOWARD
AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING 1
TO 4 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
/RFOX

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: HIGH PRESSURE KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE TAF SITES FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT EAST TO NORTH WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. /RFOX

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        77  49  83  52  85  57 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
COEUR D`ALENE  76  47  82  48  85  53 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
PULLMAN        78  42  85  48  86  52 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
LEWISTON       84  53  90  57  91  60 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
COLVILLE       80  43  84  43  87  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
SANDPOINT      73  39  78  40  80  49 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
KELLOGG        74  43  79  48  83  53 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
MOSES LAKE     83  47  87  51  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
WENATCHEE      81  54  86  57  86  60 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
OMAK           83  45  87  47  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 141718
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1018 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE INLAND
NORTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO. THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK MAY BECOME BREEZY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING TOWARD
AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING 1
TO 4 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
/RFOX

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: HIGH PRESSURE KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE TAF SITES FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT EAST TO NORTH WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. /RFOX

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        77  49  83  52  85  57 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
COEUR D`ALENE  76  47  82  48  85  53 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
PULLMAN        78  42  85  48  86  52 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
LEWISTON       84  53  90  57  91  60 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
COLVILLE       80  43  84  43  87  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
SANDPOINT      73  39  78  40  80  49 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
KELLOGG        74  43  79  48  83  53 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
MOSES LAKE     83  47  87  51  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
WENATCHEE      81  54  86  57  86  60 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
OMAK           83  45  87  47  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 141636
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
936 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND MONDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY
TRIGGER SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN OF LOW MARINE CLOUDS TO THE
AREA...AND HELP COOL TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE THE CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK WITH
POSSIBLY SOME RAIN ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FRIDAY
WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SMOKE PLUMES FROM TWO LOCAL FIRES SHOWING AN EASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE EASTERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAKER THIS
MORNING THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS...BUT ARE STILL STRONG
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A SURFACE THERMAL
TROUGH IS OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS MORNING AND WILL SUPPORT
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN
THE LOW 90S FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEY...WITH THE NORTH COAST PEAKING
MID 80S. THE CENTRAL OREGON COAT WILL BE INFLUENCED BY ONSHORE FLOW
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PEAK IN THE LOWER 70S.

THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE MONDAY AS AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THE UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL ONLY ENHANCE TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA AND EXPECT EVEN WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE INTERIOR. THE COAST WILL HAVE LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES.

MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN
SPREADING OVER THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED CONVECTION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER NW
OREGON. CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THESE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ARE RELATIVELY
LOW AS ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS A WAY OF SPROUTING UP WHERE WE LEAST
EXPECT IT. HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED THE CURRENT COVERAGE OF "ANYWHERE
IS POSSIBLE". HOWEVER...THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE THAT THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO THE SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH S-SE
FLOW ALOFT MOVING THE THREAT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. DUE TO VERY
DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...IT IS UNLIKELY THESE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
PRODUCE MUCH...IF ANY RAIN...WHICH IS CONCERNING CONSIDERING THE
EXTREMELY DRY FIRE FUELS ACROSS THE AREA.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL AND
POSSIBLY A STRATUS SURGE UP THE COAST MONDAY EVENING...POSSIBLY
PUSHING INLAND TUESDAY MORNING. THE DEEPENING MARINE LAYER MAY EVEN
SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE FOR COASTAL AREAS. THE MARINE PUSH WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY...BACK TO THE LOW 80S INLAND AND
MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE COAST. ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINTAIN A DEEP MARINE
LAYER. THEREFORE EXPECT THE MARINE CLOUDS TO MOVE INLAND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. TJ

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO HINT AT AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. MOISTURE FROM THE MARINE SURGE ON TUESDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS CREATED A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THURSDAY.
STILL KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND
MOST OF FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE CWA. /64

&&

.AVIATION...THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING AND SHIFT TO THE WESTERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED SO VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. THERE WILL
BE SOME SMOKE LAYERS FROM THE FIRE BURNING IN THE FOOTHILLS EAST OF
ESTACADA. SMOKE WILL OBSCURE THE TERRAIN NEAR THE FIRE.  LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CARRY SMOKE SOWN THE CLACKAMAS RIVER DRAINAGE
AND INTO THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY...BUT WINDS ABOVE 5000 FEET
WILL CARRY THE HIGHER SMOKE LAYERS OFF THE THE NORTH NORTHEAST
THROUGH TODAY.

MODELS ARE FORECASTING A FLOW REVERSAL ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW
AND TOMORROW NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING BACK FOG/LOW STRATUS ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST...SPREADING NORTH TO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. EXPECT SOME LAYERS OF SMOKE TO
MOVE OVER THE APPROACHES TODAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND THROUGH MON MORNING AS
A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WATERS OR JUST
ONSHORE. AN APPROACHING LOW PRES SYSTEM LEAD TO DEVELOPING SW
WINDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE MON INTO TUE MORNING...AND BRING
THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN STRENGTH LATER TUE...WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT POSSIBLE.
A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY BRING BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS ON WED...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE LOW
AT THIS POINT. EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO REDEVELOP OVER THE WATERS
SOMETIME LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING AT 3 TO 4 FT WITH A FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD
NW SWELL. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH EARLY MON. THEN ANOTHER
LONG PERIOD SW SWELL TRAIN IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING THE DAY
MON. SEAS ARE FCST TO INCREASE TO 6 TO 7 TUE AND WED BEFORE
DROPPING AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONE 602-ZONE
     603-ZONE 604-ZONE 605-ZONE 606-ZONE 607-ZONE 608.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONE 604-ZONE
     660.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 141636
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
936 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND MONDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY
TRIGGER SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN OF LOW MARINE CLOUDS TO THE
AREA...AND HELP COOL TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE THE CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK WITH
POSSIBLY SOME RAIN ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FRIDAY
WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SMOKE PLUMES FROM TWO LOCAL FIRES SHOWING AN EASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE EASTERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAKER THIS
MORNING THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS...BUT ARE STILL STRONG
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A SURFACE THERMAL
TROUGH IS OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS MORNING AND WILL SUPPORT
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN
THE LOW 90S FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEY...WITH THE NORTH COAST PEAKING
MID 80S. THE CENTRAL OREGON COAT WILL BE INFLUENCED BY ONSHORE FLOW
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PEAK IN THE LOWER 70S.

THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE MONDAY AS AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THE UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL ONLY ENHANCE TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA AND EXPECT EVEN WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE INTERIOR. THE COAST WILL HAVE LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES.

MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN
SPREADING OVER THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED CONVECTION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER NW
OREGON. CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THESE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ARE RELATIVELY
LOW AS ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS A WAY OF SPROUTING UP WHERE WE LEAST
EXPECT IT. HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED THE CURRENT COVERAGE OF "ANYWHERE
IS POSSIBLE". HOWEVER...THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE THAT THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO THE SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH S-SE
FLOW ALOFT MOVING THE THREAT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. DUE TO VERY
DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...IT IS UNLIKELY THESE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
PRODUCE MUCH...IF ANY RAIN...WHICH IS CONCERNING CONSIDERING THE
EXTREMELY DRY FIRE FUELS ACROSS THE AREA.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL AND
POSSIBLY A STRATUS SURGE UP THE COAST MONDAY EVENING...POSSIBLY
PUSHING INLAND TUESDAY MORNING. THE DEEPENING MARINE LAYER MAY EVEN
SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE FOR COASTAL AREAS. THE MARINE PUSH WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY...BACK TO THE LOW 80S INLAND AND
MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE COAST. ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINTAIN A DEEP MARINE
LAYER. THEREFORE EXPECT THE MARINE CLOUDS TO MOVE INLAND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. TJ

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO HINT AT AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. MOISTURE FROM THE MARINE SURGE ON TUESDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS CREATED A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THURSDAY.
STILL KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND
MOST OF FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE CWA. /64

&&

.AVIATION...THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING AND SHIFT TO THE WESTERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED SO VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. THERE WILL
BE SOME SMOKE LAYERS FROM THE FIRE BURNING IN THE FOOTHILLS EAST OF
ESTACADA. SMOKE WILL OBSCURE THE TERRAIN NEAR THE FIRE.  LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CARRY SMOKE SOWN THE CLACKAMAS RIVER DRAINAGE
AND INTO THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY...BUT WINDS ABOVE 5000 FEET
WILL CARRY THE HIGHER SMOKE LAYERS OFF THE THE NORTH NORTHEAST
THROUGH TODAY.

MODELS ARE FORECASTING A FLOW REVERSAL ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW
AND TOMORROW NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING BACK FOG/LOW STRATUS ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST...SPREADING NORTH TO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. EXPECT SOME LAYERS OF SMOKE TO
MOVE OVER THE APPROACHES TODAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND THROUGH MON MORNING AS
A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WATERS OR JUST
ONSHORE. AN APPROACHING LOW PRES SYSTEM LEAD TO DEVELOPING SW
WINDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE MON INTO TUE MORNING...AND BRING
THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN STRENGTH LATER TUE...WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT POSSIBLE.
A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY BRING BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS ON WED...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE LOW
AT THIS POINT. EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO REDEVELOP OVER THE WATERS
SOMETIME LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING AT 3 TO 4 FT WITH A FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD
NW SWELL. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH EARLY MON. THEN ANOTHER
LONG PERIOD SW SWELL TRAIN IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING THE DAY
MON. SEAS ARE FCST TO INCREASE TO 6 TO 7 TUE AND WED BEFORE
DROPPING AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONE 602-ZONE
     603-ZONE 604-ZONE 605-ZONE 606-ZONE 607-ZONE 608.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONE 604-ZONE
     660.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 141622
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
922 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL GIVE SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH MONDAY. THE DRY
AIR AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY. A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHIFTS
INLAND...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST...AND
MARINE AIR PUSHES INTO THE INTERIOR FROM THE SOUTHWEST. COOLER
WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A FEW PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE
ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN SITTING ALONG 135W FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD
TODAY. IN THE MEAN TIME...COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHEASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND EASTERN WASHINGTON INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS IS GIVING LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW AND IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN
A THERMAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM JUST OFF NORTHWESTERN VANCOUVER
ISLAND SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS. THE
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE FLOW AND THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
OFFSHORE RIDGE IS ALLOWING THE LOWER LEVELS TO GRADUALLY WARM. 850
MB TEMPERATURES TODAY AROUND 15C WILL RISE TO OVER 20C BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE THE SUN IS NOT AS STRONG AS MID SUMMER...THIS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S TODAY AND POSSIBLY TO
AROUND 90 FROM ABOUT SEATTLE SOUTHWARD IN THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY.

A 571 DAM 500 MB LOW SITTING NEAR 37N 137W IS FORECAST BY SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TO OPEN UP AND EJECT NWD THROUGH THE OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN THRU THE WASHINGTON COASTAL WATERS ON TUE. THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER OVER THE
OREGON COASTAL WATERS AND INDUCE A MARINE PUSH MONDAY EVENING. THE
WARMTH IN THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE ONSHORE
GRADIENTS MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOME INSTABILITY
ALOFT TUE...EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BREAK MIDDAY IN THE INTERIOR...BUT
THE PRESENCE OF THE MARINE AIR WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S
- 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY. MOISTURE ALOFT MON NIGHT AND
TUE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE LIMITED TO ABOVE 10000 FT AND MU
CAPE VALUES ARE MINIMAL OVER THE AREA AS THE TROUGH PASSES...SO
TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR LATE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES.

CURRENT FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUBLE WITH THE SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE 00Z MODEL RUN CONTINUES THE TREND OF LACK OF
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. THE
INDIVIDUAL MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.
IN PREVIOUS RUNS THE ECMWF WAS THE FASTER AND WETTER OF THE MODELS
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SPINNING OUT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OFFSHORE. ON THE 00Z RUN THE GFS IS NOW FASTER AND WETTER WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WITH ALL OF WESTERN WASHINGTON WET BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE
ECMWF HAS SLOWED DOWN THE FEATURE WITH ONLY THE COASTAL SECTIONS WET
BY 00Z THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THURSDAY WITH
ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATING SOME TROUGHINESS AND SHOWERS. THE GFS
NOW STARTS BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY
DRYING THINGS OUT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER RIDGE IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING
ABOVE 580 DECAMETERS AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TRYING TO GO OFFSHORE
AGAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS
POINT. FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH THE BROAD BRUSH CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. IF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THE
TREND LOOK FOR THE FORECAST TO BE WARMER AND DRIER FOR AT LEAST NEXT
SATURDAY. FELTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A THERMAL PRESSURE TROUGH CONTINUES TO RESIDE NEAR
THE COAST THIS MORNING...BUT IT CONTINUES A SLOW DAY-TO-DAY
WEAKENING TREND AND SHOULD DISSIPATE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...EAST AND NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ALSO ON A DOWNWARD TREND. RED
FLAG CONCERNS THIS MORNING ARE NOW LIMITED TO ONLY THE MOST EAST
WIND-PRONE LOCATIONS SUCH AS ELLIS MTN ON THE NW OLYMPIC
PENINSULA...AS WELL AS LOCATIONS JUST WEST OF THE MAJOR CENTRAL
CASCADE PASSES. EVEN THOSE LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE THEIR WINDS DROP
BELOW CRITERIA THIS AFTN...AND THEY SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY TOMORROW.
SO LAST OF THE RED FLAG WARNINGS EXPIRE THIS AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THE DOWNWARD TREND ON EAST WIND...ENOUGH EAST WIND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY TO KEEP A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH A
WARMING TREND. MID-LEVEL HAINES 5 AND 6 CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO AN ACTIVE BURNING ENVIRONMENT. THERE
IS A SMALL RISK OF ISOLATED LIGHTNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
THE RISK IS TOO SMALL TO MENTION YET IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. AFTER
THAT...DEEPER MARINE AIR WILL SPREAD ONTO THE COAST LATE TUESDAY AND
DEEPEN OVER THE INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY.     HANER

&&

.AVIATION...THE UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW ALOFT. CONTD LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE
FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

KSEA...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT NLY.

&&

.MARINE...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN ON MON. THIS
WILL ALLOW HIGHER PRES TO BUILD OVER OREGON MON NIGHT...RESULTING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONSHORE OR SOUTHERLY FLOW. A 1011 MB HIGH ON THE
WASHINGTON COAST AND LOW PRES E OF THE CASCADES WILL MAINTAIN
ONSHORE FLOW ON TUE.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...RED FLAG WARNING FOR WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY THROUGH 3 PM
      THIS AFTERNOON IN FIRE WEATHER ZONES 650 AND 659.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML













000
FXUS66 KSEW 141622
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
922 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL GIVE SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH MONDAY. THE DRY
AIR AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY. A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHIFTS
INLAND...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST...AND
MARINE AIR PUSHES INTO THE INTERIOR FROM THE SOUTHWEST. COOLER
WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A FEW PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE
ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN SITTING ALONG 135W FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD
TODAY. IN THE MEAN TIME...COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHEASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND EASTERN WASHINGTON INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS IS GIVING LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW AND IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN
A THERMAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM JUST OFF NORTHWESTERN VANCOUVER
ISLAND SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS. THE
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE FLOW AND THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
OFFSHORE RIDGE IS ALLOWING THE LOWER LEVELS TO GRADUALLY WARM. 850
MB TEMPERATURES TODAY AROUND 15C WILL RISE TO OVER 20C BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE THE SUN IS NOT AS STRONG AS MID SUMMER...THIS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S TODAY AND POSSIBLY TO
AROUND 90 FROM ABOUT SEATTLE SOUTHWARD IN THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY.

A 571 DAM 500 MB LOW SITTING NEAR 37N 137W IS FORECAST BY SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TO OPEN UP AND EJECT NWD THROUGH THE OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN THRU THE WASHINGTON COASTAL WATERS ON TUE. THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER OVER THE
OREGON COASTAL WATERS AND INDUCE A MARINE PUSH MONDAY EVENING. THE
WARMTH IN THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE ONSHORE
GRADIENTS MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOME INSTABILITY
ALOFT TUE...EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BREAK MIDDAY IN THE INTERIOR...BUT
THE PRESENCE OF THE MARINE AIR WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S
- 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY. MOISTURE ALOFT MON NIGHT AND
TUE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE LIMITED TO ABOVE 10000 FT AND MU
CAPE VALUES ARE MINIMAL OVER THE AREA AS THE TROUGH PASSES...SO
TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR LATE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES.

CURRENT FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUBLE WITH THE SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE 00Z MODEL RUN CONTINUES THE TREND OF LACK OF
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. THE
INDIVIDUAL MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.
IN PREVIOUS RUNS THE ECMWF WAS THE FASTER AND WETTER OF THE MODELS
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SPINNING OUT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OFFSHORE. ON THE 00Z RUN THE GFS IS NOW FASTER AND WETTER WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WITH ALL OF WESTERN WASHINGTON WET BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE
ECMWF HAS SLOWED DOWN THE FEATURE WITH ONLY THE COASTAL SECTIONS WET
BY 00Z THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THURSDAY WITH
ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATING SOME TROUGHINESS AND SHOWERS. THE GFS
NOW STARTS BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY
DRYING THINGS OUT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER RIDGE IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING
ABOVE 580 DECAMETERS AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TRYING TO GO OFFSHORE
AGAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS
POINT. FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH THE BROAD BRUSH CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. IF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THE
TREND LOOK FOR THE FORECAST TO BE WARMER AND DRIER FOR AT LEAST NEXT
SATURDAY. FELTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A THERMAL PRESSURE TROUGH CONTINUES TO RESIDE NEAR
THE COAST THIS MORNING...BUT IT CONTINUES A SLOW DAY-TO-DAY
WEAKENING TREND AND SHOULD DISSIPATE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...EAST AND NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ALSO ON A DOWNWARD TREND. RED
FLAG CONCERNS THIS MORNING ARE NOW LIMITED TO ONLY THE MOST EAST
WIND-PRONE LOCATIONS SUCH AS ELLIS MTN ON THE NW OLYMPIC
PENINSULA...AS WELL AS LOCATIONS JUST WEST OF THE MAJOR CENTRAL
CASCADE PASSES. EVEN THOSE LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE THEIR WINDS DROP
BELOW CRITERIA THIS AFTN...AND THEY SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY TOMORROW.
SO LAST OF THE RED FLAG WARNINGS EXPIRE THIS AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THE DOWNWARD TREND ON EAST WIND...ENOUGH EAST WIND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY TO KEEP A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH A
WARMING TREND. MID-LEVEL HAINES 5 AND 6 CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO AN ACTIVE BURNING ENVIRONMENT. THERE
IS A SMALL RISK OF ISOLATED LIGHTNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
THE RISK IS TOO SMALL TO MENTION YET IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. AFTER
THAT...DEEPER MARINE AIR WILL SPREAD ONTO THE COAST LATE TUESDAY AND
DEEPEN OVER THE INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY.     HANER

&&

.AVIATION...THE UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW ALOFT. CONTD LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE
FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

KSEA...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT NLY.

&&

.MARINE...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN ON MON. THIS
WILL ALLOW HIGHER PRES TO BUILD OVER OREGON MON NIGHT...RESULTING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONSHORE OR SOUTHERLY FLOW. A 1011 MB HIGH ON THE
WASHINGTON COAST AND LOW PRES E OF THE CASCADES WILL MAINTAIN
ONSHORE FLOW ON TUE.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...RED FLAG WARNING FOR WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY THROUGH 3 PM
      THIS AFTERNOON IN FIRE WEATHER ZONES 650 AND 659.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML













000
FXUS66 KSEW 141622
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
922 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL GIVE SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH MONDAY. THE DRY
AIR AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY. A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHIFTS
INLAND...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST...AND
MARINE AIR PUSHES INTO THE INTERIOR FROM THE SOUTHWEST. COOLER
WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A FEW PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE
ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN SITTING ALONG 135W FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD
TODAY. IN THE MEAN TIME...COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHEASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND EASTERN WASHINGTON INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS IS GIVING LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW AND IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN
A THERMAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM JUST OFF NORTHWESTERN VANCOUVER
ISLAND SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS. THE
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE FLOW AND THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
OFFSHORE RIDGE IS ALLOWING THE LOWER LEVELS TO GRADUALLY WARM. 850
MB TEMPERATURES TODAY AROUND 15C WILL RISE TO OVER 20C BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE THE SUN IS NOT AS STRONG AS MID SUMMER...THIS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S TODAY AND POSSIBLY TO
AROUND 90 FROM ABOUT SEATTLE SOUTHWARD IN THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY.

A 571 DAM 500 MB LOW SITTING NEAR 37N 137W IS FORECAST BY SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TO OPEN UP AND EJECT NWD THROUGH THE OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN THRU THE WASHINGTON COASTAL WATERS ON TUE. THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER OVER THE
OREGON COASTAL WATERS AND INDUCE A MARINE PUSH MONDAY EVENING. THE
WARMTH IN THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE ONSHORE
GRADIENTS MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOME INSTABILITY
ALOFT TUE...EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BREAK MIDDAY IN THE INTERIOR...BUT
THE PRESENCE OF THE MARINE AIR WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S
- 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY. MOISTURE ALOFT MON NIGHT AND
TUE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE LIMITED TO ABOVE 10000 FT AND MU
CAPE VALUES ARE MINIMAL OVER THE AREA AS THE TROUGH PASSES...SO
TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR LATE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES.

CURRENT FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUBLE WITH THE SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE 00Z MODEL RUN CONTINUES THE TREND OF LACK OF
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. THE
INDIVIDUAL MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.
IN PREVIOUS RUNS THE ECMWF WAS THE FASTER AND WETTER OF THE MODELS
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SPINNING OUT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OFFSHORE. ON THE 00Z RUN THE GFS IS NOW FASTER AND WETTER WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WITH ALL OF WESTERN WASHINGTON WET BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE
ECMWF HAS SLOWED DOWN THE FEATURE WITH ONLY THE COASTAL SECTIONS WET
BY 00Z THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THURSDAY WITH
ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATING SOME TROUGHINESS AND SHOWERS. THE GFS
NOW STARTS BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY
DRYING THINGS OUT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER RIDGE IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING
ABOVE 580 DECAMETERS AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TRYING TO GO OFFSHORE
AGAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS
POINT. FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH THE BROAD BRUSH CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. IF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THE
TREND LOOK FOR THE FORECAST TO BE WARMER AND DRIER FOR AT LEAST NEXT
SATURDAY. FELTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A THERMAL PRESSURE TROUGH CONTINUES TO RESIDE NEAR
THE COAST THIS MORNING...BUT IT CONTINUES A SLOW DAY-TO-DAY
WEAKENING TREND AND SHOULD DISSIPATE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...EAST AND NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ALSO ON A DOWNWARD TREND. RED
FLAG CONCERNS THIS MORNING ARE NOW LIMITED TO ONLY THE MOST EAST
WIND-PRONE LOCATIONS SUCH AS ELLIS MTN ON THE NW OLYMPIC
PENINSULA...AS WELL AS LOCATIONS JUST WEST OF THE MAJOR CENTRAL
CASCADE PASSES. EVEN THOSE LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE THEIR WINDS DROP
BELOW CRITERIA THIS AFTN...AND THEY SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY TOMORROW.
SO LAST OF THE RED FLAG WARNINGS EXPIRE THIS AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THE DOWNWARD TREND ON EAST WIND...ENOUGH EAST WIND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY TO KEEP A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH A
WARMING TREND. MID-LEVEL HAINES 5 AND 6 CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO AN ACTIVE BURNING ENVIRONMENT. THERE
IS A SMALL RISK OF ISOLATED LIGHTNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
THE RISK IS TOO SMALL TO MENTION YET IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. AFTER
THAT...DEEPER MARINE AIR WILL SPREAD ONTO THE COAST LATE TUESDAY AND
DEEPEN OVER THE INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY.     HANER

&&

.AVIATION...THE UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW ALOFT. CONTD LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE
FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

KSEA...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT NLY.

&&

.MARINE...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN ON MON. THIS
WILL ALLOW HIGHER PRES TO BUILD OVER OREGON MON NIGHT...RESULTING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONSHORE OR SOUTHERLY FLOW. A 1011 MB HIGH ON THE
WASHINGTON COAST AND LOW PRES E OF THE CASCADES WILL MAINTAIN
ONSHORE FLOW ON TUE.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...RED FLAG WARNING FOR WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY THROUGH 3 PM
      THIS AFTERNOON IN FIRE WEATHER ZONES 650 AND 659.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML













000
FXUS66 KSEW 141622
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
922 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL GIVE SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH MONDAY. THE DRY
AIR AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY. A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHIFTS
INLAND...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST...AND
MARINE AIR PUSHES INTO THE INTERIOR FROM THE SOUTHWEST. COOLER
WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A FEW PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE
ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN SITTING ALONG 135W FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD
TODAY. IN THE MEAN TIME...COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHEASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND EASTERN WASHINGTON INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS IS GIVING LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW AND IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN
A THERMAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM JUST OFF NORTHWESTERN VANCOUVER
ISLAND SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS. THE
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE FLOW AND THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
OFFSHORE RIDGE IS ALLOWING THE LOWER LEVELS TO GRADUALLY WARM. 850
MB TEMPERATURES TODAY AROUND 15C WILL RISE TO OVER 20C BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE THE SUN IS NOT AS STRONG AS MID SUMMER...THIS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S TODAY AND POSSIBLY TO
AROUND 90 FROM ABOUT SEATTLE SOUTHWARD IN THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY.

A 571 DAM 500 MB LOW SITTING NEAR 37N 137W IS FORECAST BY SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TO OPEN UP AND EJECT NWD THROUGH THE OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN THRU THE WASHINGTON COASTAL WATERS ON TUE. THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER OVER THE
OREGON COASTAL WATERS AND INDUCE A MARINE PUSH MONDAY EVENING. THE
WARMTH IN THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE ONSHORE
GRADIENTS MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOME INSTABILITY
ALOFT TUE...EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BREAK MIDDAY IN THE INTERIOR...BUT
THE PRESENCE OF THE MARINE AIR WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S
- 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY. MOISTURE ALOFT MON NIGHT AND
TUE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE LIMITED TO ABOVE 10000 FT AND MU
CAPE VALUES ARE MINIMAL OVER THE AREA AS THE TROUGH PASSES...SO
TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR LATE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES.

CURRENT FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUBLE WITH THE SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE 00Z MODEL RUN CONTINUES THE TREND OF LACK OF
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. THE
INDIVIDUAL MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.
IN PREVIOUS RUNS THE ECMWF WAS THE FASTER AND WETTER OF THE MODELS
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SPINNING OUT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OFFSHORE. ON THE 00Z RUN THE GFS IS NOW FASTER AND WETTER WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WITH ALL OF WESTERN WASHINGTON WET BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE
ECMWF HAS SLOWED DOWN THE FEATURE WITH ONLY THE COASTAL SECTIONS WET
BY 00Z THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THURSDAY WITH
ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATING SOME TROUGHINESS AND SHOWERS. THE GFS
NOW STARTS BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY
DRYING THINGS OUT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER RIDGE IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING
ABOVE 580 DECAMETERS AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TRYING TO GO OFFSHORE
AGAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS
POINT. FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH THE BROAD BRUSH CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. IF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THE
TREND LOOK FOR THE FORECAST TO BE WARMER AND DRIER FOR AT LEAST NEXT
SATURDAY. FELTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A THERMAL PRESSURE TROUGH CONTINUES TO RESIDE NEAR
THE COAST THIS MORNING...BUT IT CONTINUES A SLOW DAY-TO-DAY
WEAKENING TREND AND SHOULD DISSIPATE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...EAST AND NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ALSO ON A DOWNWARD TREND. RED
FLAG CONCERNS THIS MORNING ARE NOW LIMITED TO ONLY THE MOST EAST
WIND-PRONE LOCATIONS SUCH AS ELLIS MTN ON THE NW OLYMPIC
PENINSULA...AS WELL AS LOCATIONS JUST WEST OF THE MAJOR CENTRAL
CASCADE PASSES. EVEN THOSE LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE THEIR WINDS DROP
BELOW CRITERIA THIS AFTN...AND THEY SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY TOMORROW.
SO LAST OF THE RED FLAG WARNINGS EXPIRE THIS AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THE DOWNWARD TREND ON EAST WIND...ENOUGH EAST WIND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY TO KEEP A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH A
WARMING TREND. MID-LEVEL HAINES 5 AND 6 CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO AN ACTIVE BURNING ENVIRONMENT. THERE
IS A SMALL RISK OF ISOLATED LIGHTNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
THE RISK IS TOO SMALL TO MENTION YET IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. AFTER
THAT...DEEPER MARINE AIR WILL SPREAD ONTO THE COAST LATE TUESDAY AND
DEEPEN OVER THE INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY.     HANER

&&

.AVIATION...THE UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW ALOFT. CONTD LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE
FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

KSEA...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT NLY.

&&

.MARINE...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN ON MON. THIS
WILL ALLOW HIGHER PRES TO BUILD OVER OREGON MON NIGHT...RESULTING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONSHORE OR SOUTHERLY FLOW. A 1011 MB HIGH ON THE
WASHINGTON COAST AND LOW PRES E OF THE CASCADES WILL MAINTAIN
ONSHORE FLOW ON TUE.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...RED FLAG WARNING FOR WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY THROUGH 3 PM
      THIS AFTERNOON IN FIRE WEATHER ZONES 650 AND 659.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML













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