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000
FXUS66 KSEW 251721
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
920 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRES
EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER WASHINGTON STATE
WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO INTO EASTERN
WASHINGTON. SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 2000 AND 10000 FEET WILL DRY THE
LOWER AND MID LEVELS OUT LATER TODAY AND TEMPERATURES AROUND
2000-3000 FEET WILL WARM TO AROUND 17C. SOME MOISTURE MOVING OVER
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOG AND STRATUS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING OUT THIS MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH
ONLY THE AREA FROM AROUND SEATAC-OLYMPIA-HOQUIAM VALLEY LOCATIONS
SOUTHWARD HOLDING ONTO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY MOST
PLACES WITH ONLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS ADDING SOME CHARACTER TO THE SKY.
THE AIR MASS IS QUITE WARM AND MOIST WITH MOST PLACES ALREADY IN THE
LOWER 50S AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 50. THE RECORD HIGH OF 58 DEGREES AT
SEATAC WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN WITH 60 IN THE FORECAST. IT WILL REALLY
BE A NICE DAY TO ENJOY THE OUTDOORS TODAY.

RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND A LOWERING INVERSION TO
AROUND 1000 FEET LATE TONIGHT WILL MEAN THAT AREAS OF FOG WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP.
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP 4-8
DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY DID THIS MORNING.

FOG WILL LIFT MIDDAY ON MONDAY...EXCEPT MAYBE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
IN THE SOUTH INTERIOR. AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND A CONTINUED WARM AIR
MASS MEANS ANOTHER VERY NICE AND MILD DAY ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN
IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AT
SEATAC AIRPORT ON MONDAY IS AGAIN 58 DEGREES.

THE INCOMING 12Z GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE
IDAHO PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OFFSHORE APPROACHES THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE IS A TAD
STRONGER IN THE LATEST SOLUTION...SO RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED A BIT. STILL EXPECT LOTS OF
CLOUDS AS THE WEAKENING FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND DIES RIGHT
OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK GOOD FOR NOW. NO MORNING UPDATE IS NEEDED.
ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER OVERALL WITH MUCH LESS QPF. WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR NOW. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE
TO SHOW A STRONGER RIDGE ON THURSDAY WHICH WOULD GIVE DRY WEATHER.
THE FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO REMOVE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR. THE
RIDGE WILL PERSIST WILL PERSIST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR CONTINUED
DRY AND MILD WEATHER. MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...WRN WA IS AT THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. MODERATE TO STRONG W-SW FLOW ALOFT. THE
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY STABLE. THE AIR MASS IN THE LOWEST 1000
FEET IS QUITE MOIST...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ABOVE. AS A RESULT OF THE
MOIST LAYER NEAR THE SFC...SOME AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING PRIOR TO SUNRISE...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
OVER THE SOUTH SOUND REGION. A PIREP NEAR KTIW AT 1629Z REPORTED
CLOUD TOPS OF 1500 FEET. CONSIDERING THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE
FOG/CLOUDS AND 5-15 KT OF WIND ALOFT ENTRAINING DRY AIR INTO THE TOP
OF THE MOIST LAYER...EXPECTING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO BURN OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY THIS MORNING. TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT FOG TO
RE-DEVELOP...WITH GREATER COVERAGE AND MORE WIDESPREAD LOW VSBYS
DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWLANDS. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY BE STUBBORN TO
BURN OFF OVER THE SOUTH SOUND REGION ON MONDAY.

KSEA...EXPECTING STEADY BURNOFF OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF
THIS SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A VFR AFTERNOON AND EVENING MERELY
FEATURING SCATTERED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE 15 THOUSAND FEET.
LATE TONIGHT...FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT THE TERMINAL...POSSIBLY
DENSE. ON MONDAY...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GENTLE SOUTH BREEZE WILL
FIRST HELP TO LIFT THE FOG INTO A LOW STRATUS LATE IN THE
MORNING...WITH BURNOFF EXPECTED ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.   HANER

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS
MORNING WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING LIGHT OFFSHORE. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN TRENDING MORE NORTHERLY AND
EASTERLY. THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
A WEAKENING FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAZARDOUS SEAS OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






















000
FXUS66 KSEW 251721
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
920 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRES
EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER WASHINGTON STATE
WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO INTO EASTERN
WASHINGTON. SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 2000 AND 10000 FEET WILL DRY THE
LOWER AND MID LEVELS OUT LATER TODAY AND TEMPERATURES AROUND
2000-3000 FEET WILL WARM TO AROUND 17C. SOME MOISTURE MOVING OVER
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOG AND STRATUS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING OUT THIS MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH
ONLY THE AREA FROM AROUND SEATAC-OLYMPIA-HOQUIAM VALLEY LOCATIONS
SOUTHWARD HOLDING ONTO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY MOST
PLACES WITH ONLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS ADDING SOME CHARACTER TO THE SKY.
THE AIR MASS IS QUITE WARM AND MOIST WITH MOST PLACES ALREADY IN THE
LOWER 50S AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 50. THE RECORD HIGH OF 58 DEGREES AT
SEATAC WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN WITH 60 IN THE FORECAST. IT WILL REALLY
BE A NICE DAY TO ENJOY THE OUTDOORS TODAY.

RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND A LOWERING INVERSION TO
AROUND 1000 FEET LATE TONIGHT WILL MEAN THAT AREAS OF FOG WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP.
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP 4-8
DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY DID THIS MORNING.

FOG WILL LIFT MIDDAY ON MONDAY...EXCEPT MAYBE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
IN THE SOUTH INTERIOR. AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND A CONTINUED WARM AIR
MASS MEANS ANOTHER VERY NICE AND MILD DAY ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN
IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AT
SEATAC AIRPORT ON MONDAY IS AGAIN 58 DEGREES.

THE INCOMING 12Z GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE
IDAHO PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OFFSHORE APPROACHES THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE IS A TAD
STRONGER IN THE LATEST SOLUTION...SO RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED A BIT. STILL EXPECT LOTS OF
CLOUDS AS THE WEAKENING FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND DIES RIGHT
OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK GOOD FOR NOW. NO MORNING UPDATE IS NEEDED.
ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER OVERALL WITH MUCH LESS QPF. WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR NOW. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE
TO SHOW A STRONGER RIDGE ON THURSDAY WHICH WOULD GIVE DRY WEATHER.
THE FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO REMOVE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR. THE
RIDGE WILL PERSIST WILL PERSIST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR CONTINUED
DRY AND MILD WEATHER. MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...WRN WA IS AT THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. MODERATE TO STRONG W-SW FLOW ALOFT. THE
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY STABLE. THE AIR MASS IN THE LOWEST 1000
FEET IS QUITE MOIST...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ABOVE. AS A RESULT OF THE
MOIST LAYER NEAR THE SFC...SOME AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING PRIOR TO SUNRISE...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
OVER THE SOUTH SOUND REGION. A PIREP NEAR KTIW AT 1629Z REPORTED
CLOUD TOPS OF 1500 FEET. CONSIDERING THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE
FOG/CLOUDS AND 5-15 KT OF WIND ALOFT ENTRAINING DRY AIR INTO THE TOP
OF THE MOIST LAYER...EXPECTING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO BURN OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY THIS MORNING. TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT FOG TO
RE-DEVELOP...WITH GREATER COVERAGE AND MORE WIDESPREAD LOW VSBYS
DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWLANDS. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY BE STUBBORN TO
BURN OFF OVER THE SOUTH SOUND REGION ON MONDAY.

KSEA...EXPECTING STEADY BURNOFF OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF
THIS SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A VFR AFTERNOON AND EVENING MERELY
FEATURING SCATTERED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE 15 THOUSAND FEET.
LATE TONIGHT...FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT THE TERMINAL...POSSIBLY
DENSE. ON MONDAY...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GENTLE SOUTH BREEZE WILL
FIRST HELP TO LIFT THE FOG INTO A LOW STRATUS LATE IN THE
MORNING...WITH BURNOFF EXPECTED ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.   HANER

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS
MORNING WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING LIGHT OFFSHORE. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN TRENDING MORE NORTHERLY AND
EASTERLY. THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
A WEAKENING FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAZARDOUS SEAS OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




















  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 251708
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
907 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY RESULTING IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A VERY WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD FOG THROUGHOUT THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
INTO THE LOWER COLUMBIA OF SW WA. MANY SURFACE OBSERVING SITES
REPORTING ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY...THUS THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z. PRIMARY FEATURES ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH MODEL 500 MB HEIGHT OVERLAYS INCLUDE STRONG
HIGH PRES CELL CENTERED OVER NE CALIFORNIA WITH MODEL 582 DM CONTOUR
TO NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER. ANOTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS A CLOSED LOW
JUST SOUTH OF BAJA.

THE 12Z KSLE SOUNDING TELLS THE SHORT-TERM STORY. VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS EVIDENCED BY MILD EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOUNDING INDICATES THE BASE OF THE INVERSION
AROUND 800 TO 1000 FT. THUS...THE VALLEY FOG LAYER IS FAIRLY SHALLOW.
SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED TEMPS NEAR 60F AT 4500 TO 5000 FT WITH RH OF 10%
OR LESS. THE 6000 FT TIMBERLINE LODGE SENSOR WAS AT 52F AS OF 15Z.
BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE INTERIOR VALLEY MAX TEMPS. WITH SUCH
WIDESPREAD FOG...IT WOULD SEEM A GOOD BET THAT SOME OF IT WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY. AFTER A WARM DAY SAT IT
LOOKS LIKE THE VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN COOLER TODAY DESPITE THE WARM
AIR ALOFT. TERRAIN ABOVE ABOUT 1K FT WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. MODEL FORECASTS STILL HAVE H8 TEMPS AROUND 16 TO 18 DEG C
TODAY...WHICH WOULD PUT IT CLOSE TO THE WARMEST H8 TEMP RECORDED IN
JANUARY IN NW OREGON SINCE RECORDS BECAME AVAILABLE IN THE 1950S. A
NUMBER OF LOCATIONS IN THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS REACHED
THE 60S SAT WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND 12 C...SO 60S SHOULD BE EVEN MORE
COMMON THERE TODAY WITH PERHAPS SOME LOCATIONS TOPPING 70. THE
BEACHES WILL ALSO BE ON THE MILD SIDE TODAY AS ANY FOG THERE SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BEFORE NOON.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY MOVE E TONIGHT AND MON...RESULTING IN
MODERATING TEMPS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GFS FORECASTS 850 TEMPS OF
15 TO 18C 06Z MON...BUT DOWN TO 10 TO 13C BY 00Z TUE. HIGHER PARTS OF
THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES COULD SEE MAX TEMPS MON FAIRLY EARLY.
VALLEYS ARE LIKELY TO SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PERSISTING AS THE
INVERSION WEAKENS DURING THE DAY MON.

MODELS REMAIN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN DEPCITING A WEAK FRONT PUSHING
ONTO THE COAST BY TUE AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT. MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE MOISTURE WITH THE DECAYING FRONT IS LIKELY
TO BE ON THE SHALLOW SIDE...ESPECIALLY INITIALLY LATE MON NIGHT AND
TUE MORNING. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SO WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS OVER
THE N AND W PARTS OF THE AREA TUE. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AT LEAST...AS THE FRONT DRAGS AND LINGERS. MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING BY THURSDAY...BRINGING THE RETURN OF
VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND BENIGN CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS. /27
&&

.AVIATION...LIFR/VLIFR ACROSS MOST TAF SITES...EXCEPT KONP WHERE
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW HAS RESTRICTED FOG TO THE YAQUINA BAY. EAST
WIND HAS DEVELOPED AT KAST...WHICH SHOULD CLEAR OUT FOG OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...IMPROVING THIS SITE TO VFR BY 18Z. LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL NOT HELP MIX OUT THE FOG FROM BELOW...SO HAVE
TO WAIT FOR IT TO BURN OFF FROM ABOVE. SOUNDING TAKEN AT SALEM
THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE FOG WAS AROUND 2000 FT THICK AT
12Z. IMPROVEMENT TO IFR IS LIKELY AT NORTHERN SITES BY 19Z...WITH
FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN VFR BY AROUND 21-22Z.
NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC FOR FULL CLEARING AT KHIO...THOUGH. SOUTH
VALLEY SITES WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE...WITH KEUG NOT RISING TO
IFR UNTIL 22Z...IMPROVING TO MVFR BY 23-00Z. NOT CONFIDENT THAT
KEUG WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL TODAY.

FOG TO RETURN TONIGHT LOWERING CIGS AND VIS TO IFR BY AROUND
05-07Z AT NORTHERN VALLEY SITES...AND 02-04Z AT KSLE AND KEUG.
AS FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND THICKEN...EXPECT LIFR CIGS AND VIS
TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 07-09Z AT NORTHERN SITES...AND 04-06Z IN THE
SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. OFFSHORE WINDS AT COASTAL SITES SHOULD
KEEP THEM VFR...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME FOG ADVECTED INTO THE
TERMINAL AT KAST FROM YOUNGS BAY AS WINDS LOOK TO BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AT THIS SITE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT LIFR CIGS/VSBYS TO IMPROVE TO IFR
BY 18Z. TERMINAL WILL LIKELY HANG ON TO IFR CIGS AND VIS FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR BY 21Z. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR IS POSSIBLE BY 22Z. CIGS AND VIS TO DROP BACK DOWN TO IFR
THIS EVENING AROUND 06Z...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY
AROUND 08Z. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
A SOUTHERLY SURGE MAY BRING WINDS UP BRIEFLY AT ONSET...WITH GUSTS
TO 20 TO 25 KT. SOUTHERLY WINDS THEREAFTER WILL BE GUSTING TO
AROUND 20-22 KTS...MAKING FOR A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS EVENT.
WILL EVALUATE FURTHER WITH NEW MODEL RUNS LATER THIS MORNING.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 8-9 FT. SWELL AT BUOY 005 EARLIER GAVE
CONFIDENCE FOR THE 9 TO 10 FT SWELL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATER THIS
MORNING...BRINGING SEAS BACK UP TO AROUND 10 FT. WILL LIKELY SEE
SEAS RISE TO 10 FT BY AROUND NOON TODAY. SEAS LOOK TO EASE BACK
BELOW 10 FT AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SEAS
GETTING BACK UP TO 10 FT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS MIDDAY
MONDAY...BUT SHOULD DROP BACK BELOW 10 FT MONDAY NIGHT AND SUBSIDE
TO REMAIN WELL BELOW 10 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER
     COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR GREATER
     VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 AM
     PST THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 PM TO
     11 PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 251708
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
907 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY RESULTING IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A VERY WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD FOG THROUGHOUT THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
INTO THE LOWER COLUMBIA OF SW WA. MANY SURFACE OBSERVING SITES
REPORTING ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY...THUS THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z. PRIMARY FEATURES ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH MODEL 500 MB HEIGHT OVERLAYS INCLUDE STRONG
HIGH PRES CELL CENTERED OVER NE CALIFORNIA WITH MODEL 582 DM CONTOUR
TO NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER. ANOTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS A CLOSED LOW
JUST SOUTH OF BAJA.

THE 12Z KSLE SOUNDING TELLS THE SHORT-TERM STORY. VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS EVIDENCED BY MILD EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOUNDING INDICATES THE BASE OF THE INVERSION
AROUND 800 TO 1000 FT. THUS...THE VALLEY FOG LAYER IS FAIRLY SHALLOW.
SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED TEMPS NEAR 60F AT 4500 TO 5000 FT WITH RH OF 10%
OR LESS. THE 6000 FT TIMBERLINE LODGE SENSOR WAS AT 52F AS OF 15Z.
BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE INTERIOR VALLEY MAX TEMPS. WITH SUCH
WIDESPREAD FOG...IT WOULD SEEM A GOOD BET THAT SOME OF IT WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY. AFTER A WARM DAY SAT IT
LOOKS LIKE THE VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN COOLER TODAY DESPITE THE WARM
AIR ALOFT. TERRAIN ABOVE ABOUT 1K FT WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. MODEL FORECASTS STILL HAVE H8 TEMPS AROUND 16 TO 18 DEG C
TODAY...WHICH WOULD PUT IT CLOSE TO THE WARMEST H8 TEMP RECORDED IN
JANUARY IN NW OREGON SINCE RECORDS BECAME AVAILABLE IN THE 1950S. A
NUMBER OF LOCATIONS IN THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS REACHED
THE 60S SAT WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND 12 C...SO 60S SHOULD BE EVEN MORE
COMMON THERE TODAY WITH PERHAPS SOME LOCATIONS TOPPING 70. THE
BEACHES WILL ALSO BE ON THE MILD SIDE TODAY AS ANY FOG THERE SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BEFORE NOON.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY MOVE E TONIGHT AND MON...RESULTING IN
MODERATING TEMPS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GFS FORECASTS 850 TEMPS OF
15 TO 18C 06Z MON...BUT DOWN TO 10 TO 13C BY 00Z TUE. HIGHER PARTS OF
THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES COULD SEE MAX TEMPS MON FAIRLY EARLY.
VALLEYS ARE LIKELY TO SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PERSISTING AS THE
INVERSION WEAKENS DURING THE DAY MON.

MODELS REMAIN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN DEPCITING A WEAK FRONT PUSHING
ONTO THE COAST BY TUE AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT. MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE MOISTURE WITH THE DECAYING FRONT IS LIKELY
TO BE ON THE SHALLOW SIDE...ESPECIALLY INITIALLY LATE MON NIGHT AND
TUE MORNING. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SO WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS OVER
THE N AND W PARTS OF THE AREA TUE. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AT LEAST...AS THE FRONT DRAGS AND LINGERS. MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING BY THURSDAY...BRINGING THE RETURN OF
VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND BENIGN CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS. /27
&&

.AVIATION...LIFR/VLIFR ACROSS MOST TAF SITES...EXCEPT KONP WHERE
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW HAS RESTRICTED FOG TO THE YAQUINA BAY. EAST
WIND HAS DEVELOPED AT KAST...WHICH SHOULD CLEAR OUT FOG OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...IMPROVING THIS SITE TO VFR BY 18Z. LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL NOT HELP MIX OUT THE FOG FROM BELOW...SO HAVE
TO WAIT FOR IT TO BURN OFF FROM ABOVE. SOUNDING TAKEN AT SALEM
THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE FOG WAS AROUND 2000 FT THICK AT
12Z. IMPROVEMENT TO IFR IS LIKELY AT NORTHERN SITES BY 19Z...WITH
FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN VFR BY AROUND 21-22Z.
NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC FOR FULL CLEARING AT KHIO...THOUGH. SOUTH
VALLEY SITES WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE...WITH KEUG NOT RISING TO
IFR UNTIL 22Z...IMPROVING TO MVFR BY 23-00Z. NOT CONFIDENT THAT
KEUG WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL TODAY.

FOG TO RETURN TONIGHT LOWERING CIGS AND VIS TO IFR BY AROUND
05-07Z AT NORTHERN VALLEY SITES...AND 02-04Z AT KSLE AND KEUG.
AS FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND THICKEN...EXPECT LIFR CIGS AND VIS
TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 07-09Z AT NORTHERN SITES...AND 04-06Z IN THE
SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. OFFSHORE WINDS AT COASTAL SITES SHOULD
KEEP THEM VFR...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME FOG ADVECTED INTO THE
TERMINAL AT KAST FROM YOUNGS BAY AS WINDS LOOK TO BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AT THIS SITE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT LIFR CIGS/VSBYS TO IMPROVE TO IFR
BY 18Z. TERMINAL WILL LIKELY HANG ON TO IFR CIGS AND VIS FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR BY 21Z. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR IS POSSIBLE BY 22Z. CIGS AND VIS TO DROP BACK DOWN TO IFR
THIS EVENING AROUND 06Z...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY
AROUND 08Z. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
A SOUTHERLY SURGE MAY BRING WINDS UP BRIEFLY AT ONSET...WITH GUSTS
TO 20 TO 25 KT. SOUTHERLY WINDS THEREAFTER WILL BE GUSTING TO
AROUND 20-22 KTS...MAKING FOR A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS EVENT.
WILL EVALUATE FURTHER WITH NEW MODEL RUNS LATER THIS MORNING.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 8-9 FT. SWELL AT BUOY 005 EARLIER GAVE
CONFIDENCE FOR THE 9 TO 10 FT SWELL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATER THIS
MORNING...BRINGING SEAS BACK UP TO AROUND 10 FT. WILL LIKELY SEE
SEAS RISE TO 10 FT BY AROUND NOON TODAY. SEAS LOOK TO EASE BACK
BELOW 10 FT AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SEAS
GETTING BACK UP TO 10 FT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS MIDDAY
MONDAY...BUT SHOULD DROP BACK BELOW 10 FT MONDAY NIGHT AND SUBSIDE
TO REMAIN WELL BELOW 10 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER
     COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR GREATER
     VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 AM
     PST THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 PM TO
     11 PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


  [top]

000
FXUS66 KOTX 251227
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
426 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
More fog and low clouds are expected today as high pressure
returns. Record high temperatures will be possible both today and
Monday across southeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. A
weak storm system will affect the area mid- week...increasing the
threat of light valley rain and mountain snow. A ridge of high
pressure will then rebound late in the week for drier weather and
more fog.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Mon Nt: The main challenges for today and Mon will
be fog and/or the areal coverage of stratus...as well as the
possibility of record high temps. Much of Ern Wa and N Idaho
remain under a canopy of low clouds and areas of fog. Concerning
the dense fog advisory for this morning... we expect vsbys to
fall once again to below one half mile once the thick mid cloud
deck over the advsy area exits east. This will be our number one
priority and we`ll adjust the fcst as needed. Rapid height rises
aloft accompanying a quickly strengthening upper ridge today will
lead to a dry fcst and, as lower tropospheric temps warm
considerably, those sites that mix (non- deep valley sites) will
likely see record or near record high temps across SE Washington
and adjacent parts of N Idaho. Monday should see similar
to slightly cooler temps as the warm temps aloft cool slightly
as the upper ridge weakens. Towns close to the Cascades and in
the Nrn Wa valleys likely won`t mix and could remain under fog
and/or low clouds a good part of the day. bz

Tuesday through Saturday: A strong ridge of high pressure will
dominate the region. Models do show a weak cold front topping over
the ridge Tuesday and Tuesday night. This may result in some light
precip in the form of rain and high mountain snow, but this
feature weakens considerably as it pushes into the ridge. Will
continue to leave some low chance precip chances in the mountains
and in the ID Panhandle. The main affect that this front will have
will to cool the low to mid levels of the atmosphere off and
weaken the surface inversion. This may be enough to break up the
low clouds and fog across the region on Tuesday and Wednesday.
This will also bring an end to the abnormally warm temps across
portions of the region that have not been stuck under the low
clouds.

The trend after mid week will be for the ridge to re-establish
itself over the region. Models do show another shortwave
disturbance (even weaker than on Tuesday) pushing through the
ridge on Thursday. Will keep a small chance of precip in the
mountains for this wave, but should otherwise brush by without
notice. Models then diverge a bit with how strong the ridge will
become heading into next weekend. The ECMWF and the Canadian
models have shown a more amplified longwave pressure pattern with
the ridge building further in. The Canadian model places the axis
of the ridge more offshore and places the Inland Northwest in a
colder northernly flow pattern. The ECMWF, on the other hand,
places the ridge squarely over the region and pushes moisture off
of the Pacific further north into BC. The GFS solution is a bit
flatter and would present the best possibility for precip (mainly
across the northern zones) with an atmospheric river setting up
into southern BC. The forecast was trended between the 12Z GFS and
ECMWF guidance, but confidence is low due to high model
uncertainty. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: We`ve improved the vsbys for the Spokane/ C`Da area
TAFs into the MVFR category but kept ceilings as low as IFR as an
extensive mid-cloud deck has remained over area and limited
cooling. However...there still are pockets of LIFR vsbys generally
north of Spokane where snowmelt from warm temps has significantly
contributed to the fog threat. This includes the Deer Park
airport. KPUW and KLWS will remain VFR and dry...with SE winds at
KPUW 10-13KT. LIFR vsbys will be more common for the KMWH and KEAT
TAF sites as skies remain clear west of the aforementioned mid
cloud deck this morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  35  46  35  44  33 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  47  33  47  33  45  34 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Pullman        55  40  55  38  51  37 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Lewiston       58  40  58  39  53  39 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Colville       44  30  43  27  41  30 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      44  31  46  31  45  33 /  10   0   0   0  10  20
Kellogg        46  34  48  33  48  34 /  10   0   0   0   0  20
Moses Lake     47  35  46  32  45  33 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      45  33  46  30  44  33 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           42  34  40  30  37  31 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Northeast
     Mountains-Okanogan Highlands.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 251227
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
426 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
More fog and low clouds are expected today as high pressure
returns. Record high temperatures will be possible both today and
Monday across southeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. A
weak storm system will affect the area mid- week...increasing the
threat of light valley rain and mountain snow. A ridge of high
pressure will then rebound late in the week for drier weather and
more fog.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Mon Nt: The main challenges for today and Mon will
be fog and/or the areal coverage of stratus...as well as the
possibility of record high temps. Much of Ern Wa and N Idaho
remain under a canopy of low clouds and areas of fog. Concerning
the dense fog advisory for this morning... we expect vsbys to
fall once again to below one half mile once the thick mid cloud
deck over the advsy area exits east. This will be our number one
priority and we`ll adjust the fcst as needed. Rapid height rises
aloft accompanying a quickly strengthening upper ridge today will
lead to a dry fcst and, as lower tropospheric temps warm
considerably, those sites that mix (non- deep valley sites) will
likely see record or near record high temps across SE Washington
and adjacent parts of N Idaho. Monday should see similar
to slightly cooler temps as the warm temps aloft cool slightly
as the upper ridge weakens. Towns close to the Cascades and in
the Nrn Wa valleys likely won`t mix and could remain under fog
and/or low clouds a good part of the day. bz

Tuesday through Saturday: A strong ridge of high pressure will
dominate the region. Models do show a weak cold front topping over
the ridge Tuesday and Tuesday night. This may result in some light
precip in the form of rain and high mountain snow, but this
feature weakens considerably as it pushes into the ridge. Will
continue to leave some low chance precip chances in the mountains
and in the ID Panhandle. The main affect that this front will have
will to cool the low to mid levels of the atmosphere off and
weaken the surface inversion. This may be enough to break up the
low clouds and fog across the region on Tuesday and Wednesday.
This will also bring an end to the abnormally warm temps across
portions of the region that have not been stuck under the low
clouds.

The trend after mid week will be for the ridge to re-establish
itself over the region. Models do show another shortwave
disturbance (even weaker than on Tuesday) pushing through the
ridge on Thursday. Will keep a small chance of precip in the
mountains for this wave, but should otherwise brush by without
notice. Models then diverge a bit with how strong the ridge will
become heading into next weekend. The ECMWF and the Canadian
models have shown a more amplified longwave pressure pattern with
the ridge building further in. The Canadian model places the axis
of the ridge more offshore and places the Inland Northwest in a
colder northernly flow pattern. The ECMWF, on the other hand,
places the ridge squarely over the region and pushes moisture off
of the Pacific further north into BC. The GFS solution is a bit
flatter and would present the best possibility for precip (mainly
across the northern zones) with an atmospheric river setting up
into southern BC. The forecast was trended between the 12Z GFS and
ECMWF guidance, but confidence is low due to high model
uncertainty. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: We`ve improved the vsbys for the Spokane/ C`Da area
TAFs into the MVFR category but kept ceilings as low as IFR as an
extensive mid-cloud deck has remained over area and limited
cooling. However...there still are pockets of LIFR vsbys generally
north of Spokane where snowmelt from warm temps has significantly
contributed to the fog threat. This includes the Deer Park
airport. KPUW and KLWS will remain VFR and dry...with SE winds at
KPUW 10-13KT. LIFR vsbys will be more common for the KMWH and KEAT
TAF sites as skies remain clear west of the aforementioned mid
cloud deck this morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  35  46  35  44  33 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  47  33  47  33  45  34 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Pullman        55  40  55  38  51  37 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Lewiston       58  40  58  39  53  39 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Colville       44  30  43  27  41  30 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      44  31  46  31  45  33 /  10   0   0   0  10  20
Kellogg        46  34  48  33  48  34 /  10   0   0   0   0  20
Moses Lake     47  35  46  32  45  33 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      45  33  46  30  44  33 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           42  34  40  30  37  31 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Northeast
     Mountains-Okanogan Highlands.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 251227
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
426 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
More fog and low clouds are expected today as high pressure
returns. Record high temperatures will be possible both today and
Monday across southeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. A
weak storm system will affect the area mid- week...increasing the
threat of light valley rain and mountain snow. A ridge of high
pressure will then rebound late in the week for drier weather and
more fog.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Mon Nt: The main challenges for today and Mon will
be fog and/or the areal coverage of stratus...as well as the
possibility of record high temps. Much of Ern Wa and N Idaho
remain under a canopy of low clouds and areas of fog. Concerning
the dense fog advisory for this morning... we expect vsbys to
fall once again to below one half mile once the thick mid cloud
deck over the advsy area exits east. This will be our number one
priority and we`ll adjust the fcst as needed. Rapid height rises
aloft accompanying a quickly strengthening upper ridge today will
lead to a dry fcst and, as lower tropospheric temps warm
considerably, those sites that mix (non- deep valley sites) will
likely see record or near record high temps across SE Washington
and adjacent parts of N Idaho. Monday should see similar
to slightly cooler temps as the warm temps aloft cool slightly
as the upper ridge weakens. Towns close to the Cascades and in
the Nrn Wa valleys likely won`t mix and could remain under fog
and/or low clouds a good part of the day. bz

Tuesday through Saturday: A strong ridge of high pressure will
dominate the region. Models do show a weak cold front topping over
the ridge Tuesday and Tuesday night. This may result in some light
precip in the form of rain and high mountain snow, but this
feature weakens considerably as it pushes into the ridge. Will
continue to leave some low chance precip chances in the mountains
and in the ID Panhandle. The main affect that this front will have
will to cool the low to mid levels of the atmosphere off and
weaken the surface inversion. This may be enough to break up the
low clouds and fog across the region on Tuesday and Wednesday.
This will also bring an end to the abnormally warm temps across
portions of the region that have not been stuck under the low
clouds.

The trend after mid week will be for the ridge to re-establish
itself over the region. Models do show another shortwave
disturbance (even weaker than on Tuesday) pushing through the
ridge on Thursday. Will keep a small chance of precip in the
mountains for this wave, but should otherwise brush by without
notice. Models then diverge a bit with how strong the ridge will
become heading into next weekend. The ECMWF and the Canadian
models have shown a more amplified longwave pressure pattern with
the ridge building further in. The Canadian model places the axis
of the ridge more offshore and places the Inland Northwest in a
colder northernly flow pattern. The ECMWF, on the other hand,
places the ridge squarely over the region and pushes moisture off
of the Pacific further north into BC. The GFS solution is a bit
flatter and would present the best possibility for precip (mainly
across the northern zones) with an atmospheric river setting up
into southern BC. The forecast was trended between the 12Z GFS and
ECMWF guidance, but confidence is low due to high model
uncertainty. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: We`ve improved the vsbys for the Spokane/ C`Da area
TAFs into the MVFR category but kept ceilings as low as IFR as an
extensive mid-cloud deck has remained over area and limited
cooling. However...there still are pockets of LIFR vsbys generally
north of Spokane where snowmelt from warm temps has significantly
contributed to the fog threat. This includes the Deer Park
airport. KPUW and KLWS will remain VFR and dry...with SE winds at
KPUW 10-13KT. LIFR vsbys will be more common for the KMWH and KEAT
TAF sites as skies remain clear west of the aforementioned mid
cloud deck this morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  35  46  35  44  33 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  47  33  47  33  45  34 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Pullman        55  40  55  38  51  37 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Lewiston       58  40  58  39  53  39 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Colville       44  30  43  27  41  30 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      44  31  46  31  45  33 /  10   0   0   0  10  20
Kellogg        46  34  48  33  48  34 /  10   0   0   0   0  20
Moses Lake     47  35  46  32  45  33 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      45  33  46  30  44  33 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           42  34  40  30  37  31 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Northeast
     Mountains-Okanogan Highlands.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 251227
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
426 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
More fog and low clouds are expected today as high pressure
returns. Record high temperatures will be possible both today and
Monday across southeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. A
weak storm system will affect the area mid- week...increasing the
threat of light valley rain and mountain snow. A ridge of high
pressure will then rebound late in the week for drier weather and
more fog.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Mon Nt: The main challenges for today and Mon will
be fog and/or the areal coverage of stratus...as well as the
possibility of record high temps. Much of Ern Wa and N Idaho
remain under a canopy of low clouds and areas of fog. Concerning
the dense fog advisory for this morning... we expect vsbys to
fall once again to below one half mile once the thick mid cloud
deck over the advsy area exits east. This will be our number one
priority and we`ll adjust the fcst as needed. Rapid height rises
aloft accompanying a quickly strengthening upper ridge today will
lead to a dry fcst and, as lower tropospheric temps warm
considerably, those sites that mix (non- deep valley sites) will
likely see record or near record high temps across SE Washington
and adjacent parts of N Idaho. Monday should see similar
to slightly cooler temps as the warm temps aloft cool slightly
as the upper ridge weakens. Towns close to the Cascades and in
the Nrn Wa valleys likely won`t mix and could remain under fog
and/or low clouds a good part of the day. bz

Tuesday through Saturday: A strong ridge of high pressure will
dominate the region. Models do show a weak cold front topping over
the ridge Tuesday and Tuesday night. This may result in some light
precip in the form of rain and high mountain snow, but this
feature weakens considerably as it pushes into the ridge. Will
continue to leave some low chance precip chances in the mountains
and in the ID Panhandle. The main affect that this front will have
will to cool the low to mid levels of the atmosphere off and
weaken the surface inversion. This may be enough to break up the
low clouds and fog across the region on Tuesday and Wednesday.
This will also bring an end to the abnormally warm temps across
portions of the region that have not been stuck under the low
clouds.

The trend after mid week will be for the ridge to re-establish
itself over the region. Models do show another shortwave
disturbance (even weaker than on Tuesday) pushing through the
ridge on Thursday. Will keep a small chance of precip in the
mountains for this wave, but should otherwise brush by without
notice. Models then diverge a bit with how strong the ridge will
become heading into next weekend. The ECMWF and the Canadian
models have shown a more amplified longwave pressure pattern with
the ridge building further in. The Canadian model places the axis
of the ridge more offshore and places the Inland Northwest in a
colder northernly flow pattern. The ECMWF, on the other hand,
places the ridge squarely over the region and pushes moisture off
of the Pacific further north into BC. The GFS solution is a bit
flatter and would present the best possibility for precip (mainly
across the northern zones) with an atmospheric river setting up
into southern BC. The forecast was trended between the 12Z GFS and
ECMWF guidance, but confidence is low due to high model
uncertainty. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: We`ve improved the vsbys for the Spokane/ C`Da area
TAFs into the MVFR category but kept ceilings as low as IFR as an
extensive mid-cloud deck has remained over area and limited
cooling. However...there still are pockets of LIFR vsbys generally
north of Spokane where snowmelt from warm temps has significantly
contributed to the fog threat. This includes the Deer Park
airport. KPUW and KLWS will remain VFR and dry...with SE winds at
KPUW 10-13KT. LIFR vsbys will be more common for the KMWH and KEAT
TAF sites as skies remain clear west of the aforementioned mid
cloud deck this morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  35  46  35  44  33 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  47  33  47  33  45  34 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Pullman        55  40  55  38  51  37 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Lewiston       58  40  58  39  53  39 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Colville       44  30  43  27  41  30 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      44  31  46  31  45  33 /  10   0   0   0  10  20
Kellogg        46  34  48  33  48  34 /  10   0   0   0   0  20
Moses Lake     47  35  46  32  45  33 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      45  33  46  30  44  33 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           42  34  40  30  37  31 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Northeast
     Mountains-Okanogan Highlands.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 251118
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE REGION. A WEAK FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TUESDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBS SHOW MOST THE AREA IS SOCKED
IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING. MOS GUIDANCE AND BUFFER
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS WILL MOSTLY BURN OFF AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE PARTS OF THE SW INTERIOR/S PUGET
SOUND WHICH MAY STAY SOCKED IN ALL DAY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
THE LACK OF FLOW AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 UNDER
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY SEE RECORD
HIGHS SET FOR THE DATE. THE RECORD FOR SEA-TAC TODAY IS 58 SET IN
1986 WITH 60 DEGREES FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PAC NW THROUGH MONDAY. WARMER AIR
ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN INVERSIONS KEEPING MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. SHELTERED LOCATIONS LIKE OLYMPIA WILL AGAIN HAVE A TOUGH
TIME BREAKING OUT BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE SOME AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILARLY MILD IN THE 50S.

THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EWD MONDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. 00Z/06Z MODELS ARE A BIT FASTER THAN SOME PAST RUNS SHOWING
LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO WRN WA DURING THE MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE A BIT
COOLER IN THE LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ABUNDANT
RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER
OVERALL WITH MUCH LESS QPF. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR
NOW. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONGER RIDGE ON
THURSDAY WHICH WOULD GIVE DRY WEATHER. THE FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO
REMOVE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR. THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST WILL PERSIST
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR CONTINUED DRY AND MILD WEATHER. MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY WITH
WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE FLOW BECOMING LIGHT OFFSHORE LATER
TODAY WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER THE AREA SHIFTING EAST. AIR MASS MOIST
AND STABLE WITH A DRYING TREND THIS AFTERNOON.

WIDESPREAD CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET WITH LOCAL VISIBILITIES AS LOW
AS A HALF MILE EARLY THIS MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CONDITIONS
UNTIL LATE MORNING WITH RAPID IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE. BY MID AFTERNOON EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS.

KSEA...CEILINGS AOB 500 FEET WITH VISIBILITIES 3-5SM UNTIL 18Z-20Z.
NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AFTER 20Z WITH THE LOW CLOUD LAYER
SCATTERING OUT. JUST HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE TERMINAL BY MID
AFTERNOON.  LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE MIDDAY. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS
MORNING WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING LIGHT OFFSHORE. THE LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. A WEAKENING FRONT
WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS
MORNING WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING LIGHT OFFSHORE. THE LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. A WEAKENING FRONT
WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAZARDOUS SEAS OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML


















000
FXUS66 KSEW 251118
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE REGION. A WEAK FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TUESDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBS SHOW MOST THE AREA IS SOCKED
IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING. MOS GUIDANCE AND BUFFER
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS WILL MOSTLY BURN OFF AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE PARTS OF THE SW INTERIOR/S PUGET
SOUND WHICH MAY STAY SOCKED IN ALL DAY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
THE LACK OF FLOW AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 UNDER
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY SEE RECORD
HIGHS SET FOR THE DATE. THE RECORD FOR SEA-TAC TODAY IS 58 SET IN
1986 WITH 60 DEGREES FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PAC NW THROUGH MONDAY. WARMER AIR
ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN INVERSIONS KEEPING MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. SHELTERED LOCATIONS LIKE OLYMPIA WILL AGAIN HAVE A TOUGH
TIME BREAKING OUT BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE SOME AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILARLY MILD IN THE 50S.

THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EWD MONDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. 00Z/06Z MODELS ARE A BIT FASTER THAN SOME PAST RUNS SHOWING
LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO WRN WA DURING THE MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE A BIT
COOLER IN THE LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ABUNDANT
RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER
OVERALL WITH MUCH LESS QPF. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR
NOW. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONGER RIDGE ON
THURSDAY WHICH WOULD GIVE DRY WEATHER. THE FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO
REMOVE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR. THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST WILL PERSIST
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR CONTINUED DRY AND MILD WEATHER. MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY WITH
WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE FLOW BECOMING LIGHT OFFSHORE LATER
TODAY WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER THE AREA SHIFTING EAST. AIR MASS MOIST
AND STABLE WITH A DRYING TREND THIS AFTERNOON.

WIDESPREAD CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET WITH LOCAL VISIBILITIES AS LOW
AS A HALF MILE EARLY THIS MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CONDITIONS
UNTIL LATE MORNING WITH RAPID IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE. BY MID AFTERNOON EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS.

KSEA...CEILINGS AOB 500 FEET WITH VISIBILITIES 3-5SM UNTIL 18Z-20Z.
NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AFTER 20Z WITH THE LOW CLOUD LAYER
SCATTERING OUT. JUST HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE TERMINAL BY MID
AFTERNOON.  LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE MIDDAY. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS
MORNING WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING LIGHT OFFSHORE. THE LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. A WEAKENING FRONT
WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS
MORNING WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING LIGHT OFFSHORE. THE LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. A WEAKENING FRONT
WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAZARDOUS SEAS OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



















000
FXUS66 KPQR 251105
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
305 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY RESULTING IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. VALLEY
INVERSIONS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A VERY
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN WIDESPREAD FOG AND
STRATUS FILLING IN THE VALLEYS AND ALONG PARTS OF THE COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE FOG HAS DEVELOPED UNDER A VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...AND CONSIDERING HOW WIDESPREAD IT IS...IT WOULD SEEM A
GOOD BET THAT SOME OF IT WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE BETTER PART
OF THE DAY TODAY. SO...AFTER A WARM DAY SAT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN COOLER TODAY DESPITE THE WARM AIR ALOFT. ABOVE
THE VALLEYS THOUGH...ABOVE ABOUT 1K FT...AIR MASS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY WARM. MODEL FORECASTS OF H8 TEMPS PEAK AROUND 16 TO 18
DEG C TODAY...WHICH WOULD PUT IT CLOSE TO THE WARMEST H8 TEMP
RECORDED IN JANUARY IN NW OREGON SINCE RECORDS BECAME AVAILABLE IN
THE 1950S. A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS IN THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADE
FOOTHILLS REACHED THE 60S SAT WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND 12 C...SO 60S
SHOULD BE EVEN MORE COMMON THERE TODAY WITH PERHAPS SOME LOCATIONS
TOPPING 70. WITH A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW...BEACHES TOO WILL BE ON THE
MILD SIDE TODAY AS ANY FOG THERE SHOULD CLEAR OUT BEFORE NOON.

THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARM AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY MOVE
E TONIGHT AND MON...RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPS. VALLEYS ARE
LIKELY TO SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PERSISTING AS THE INVERSION WEAKENS
DURING THE DAY MON.

MODELS REMAIN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN DEPCITING A WEAK FRONT PUSHING
ONTO THE COAST BY TUE AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT. MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE MOISTURE WITH THE DECAYING FRONT IS LIKELY
TO BE ON THE SHALLOW SIDE...ESP INITIALLY LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE
MORNING. THERE IS STILL HOWEVER SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SO WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW
POPS OVER THE N AND W PARTS OF THE AREA TUE.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AT LEAST...AS THE FRONT DRAGS AND LINGERS. MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING BY THURSDAY...BRINGING THE RETURN OF
VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND BENIGN CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS. /27
&&

.AVIATION...VLIFR UNDER FOG AND VERY LOW STRATUS AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT FOR KONP WHERE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW HAS RESTRICTED FOG TO
YAQUINA BAY. LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL NOT HELP IMPROVE
CONDITIONS FROM BELOW SO WILL BE LOOKING MORE AT BURNING OFF THE
DECK FROM ABOVE. A COUPLE AMDAR AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS FROM THE 09Z
HOUR INDICATE A ROUGH TOP OF THE DECK TO BE AROUND 1000 FEET MSL.
USING THAT AS INPUT FOR LOCAL GUIDANCE GIVES LIFTING TO IFR AROUND
19Z AND CLEARING TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH AROUND THE 21Z HOUR. AND
ABOUT 19Z FOR THE SOUTH VALLEY. VERY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PACK THE MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH KEUG NOT
RISING TO IFR UNTIL AS LATE AS 22Z BUT THEN CLEARING QUICKLY
THEREAFTER.

EXPECT A VERY SHORT WINDOW FOR KEUG...HOWEVER...AS LIFR MAY RETURN
AS EARLY AS 26/02Z FRO THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OTHER AREAS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN AT LEAST IFR UNTIL 05-07Z BEFORE FOG REDEVELOPS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS HOVERING AROUND FIELD
MINIMUMS THROUGH AT LEAST 17Z WITH CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVING TO
IFR FOR THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD PER LAMP GUIDANCE. CLIMATOLOGY
WOULD SHOW ONLY ABOUT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR REMAINING AFTER
19Z BUT WE ARE ALSO UNDER AN UNUSUALLY STRONG INVERSION ALOFT.
WILL PROBABLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND GIVE MVFR CIGS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE RETURNING TO VLIFR AROUND
06Z. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. MODELS THEN
SHOW A SOUTHERLY SURGE ENTERING THE WATERS. WOULD EXPECT A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD OF 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS AT THE ONSET. SOUTHERLY WINDS
THEREAFTER APPEAR TO LOCALLY GUST AROUND 22 KT MAKING FOR A
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS EVENT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE 30 NM
OR MORE OFFSHORE. GIVEN THAT IFFY AND SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED
NATURE...WILL NOT ISSUE FOR WINDS AT THIS TIME. WINDS EASE MONDAY
MIGHT AND REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT UNTIL PERHAPS A WEEK FROM NOW.

SEAS HAVE STUBBORNLY REMAINED AROUND 9 TO 11 FT THROUGH THE NIGHT.
DECIDED TO KEEP THE SEAS ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
AND ALSO BROUGHT THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS BACK IN. BUOY 005
CONTINUES TO RUN ABOUT 12FT AT THIS HOUR AND WILL TAKE AT LEAST 12
HOURS AFTER IT DROPS TO SEE THE SWELL TRAIN FINALLY EASE BELOW 10
FT CLOSER TO SHORE. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER
     COLUMBIA-NORTH OREGON COAST-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR GREATER
     VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 AM
     TO 10 AM PST THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 PM
     TO 11 PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 251105
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
305 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY RESULTING IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. VALLEY
INVERSIONS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A VERY
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN WIDESPREAD FOG AND
STRATUS FILLING IN THE VALLEYS AND ALONG PARTS OF THE COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE FOG HAS DEVELOPED UNDER A VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...AND CONSIDERING HOW WIDESPREAD IT IS...IT WOULD SEEM A
GOOD BET THAT SOME OF IT WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE BETTER PART
OF THE DAY TODAY. SO...AFTER A WARM DAY SAT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN COOLER TODAY DESPITE THE WARM AIR ALOFT. ABOVE
THE VALLEYS THOUGH...ABOVE ABOUT 1K FT...AIR MASS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY WARM. MODEL FORECASTS OF H8 TEMPS PEAK AROUND 16 TO 18
DEG C TODAY...WHICH WOULD PUT IT CLOSE TO THE WARMEST H8 TEMP
RECORDED IN JANUARY IN NW OREGON SINCE RECORDS BECAME AVAILABLE IN
THE 1950S. A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS IN THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADE
FOOTHILLS REACHED THE 60S SAT WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND 12 C...SO 60S
SHOULD BE EVEN MORE COMMON THERE TODAY WITH PERHAPS SOME LOCATIONS
TOPPING 70. WITH A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW...BEACHES TOO WILL BE ON THE
MILD SIDE TODAY AS ANY FOG THERE SHOULD CLEAR OUT BEFORE NOON.

THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARM AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY MOVE
E TONIGHT AND MON...RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPS. VALLEYS ARE
LIKELY TO SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PERSISTING AS THE INVERSION WEAKENS
DURING THE DAY MON.

MODELS REMAIN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN DEPCITING A WEAK FRONT PUSHING
ONTO THE COAST BY TUE AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT. MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE MOISTURE WITH THE DECAYING FRONT IS LIKELY
TO BE ON THE SHALLOW SIDE...ESP INITIALLY LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE
MORNING. THERE IS STILL HOWEVER SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SO WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW
POPS OVER THE N AND W PARTS OF THE AREA TUE.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AT LEAST...AS THE FRONT DRAGS AND LINGERS. MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING BY THURSDAY...BRINGING THE RETURN OF
VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND BENIGN CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS. /27
&&

.AVIATION...VLIFR UNDER FOG AND VERY LOW STRATUS AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT FOR KONP WHERE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW HAS RESTRICTED FOG TO
YAQUINA BAY. LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL NOT HELP IMPROVE
CONDITIONS FROM BELOW SO WILL BE LOOKING MORE AT BURNING OFF THE
DECK FROM ABOVE. A COUPLE AMDAR AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS FROM THE 09Z
HOUR INDICATE A ROUGH TOP OF THE DECK TO BE AROUND 1000 FEET MSL.
USING THAT AS INPUT FOR LOCAL GUIDANCE GIVES LIFTING TO IFR AROUND
19Z AND CLEARING TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH AROUND THE 21Z HOUR. AND
ABOUT 19Z FOR THE SOUTH VALLEY. VERY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PACK THE MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH KEUG NOT
RISING TO IFR UNTIL AS LATE AS 22Z BUT THEN CLEARING QUICKLY
THEREAFTER.

EXPECT A VERY SHORT WINDOW FOR KEUG...HOWEVER...AS LIFR MAY RETURN
AS EARLY AS 26/02Z FRO THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OTHER AREAS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN AT LEAST IFR UNTIL 05-07Z BEFORE FOG REDEVELOPS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS HOVERING AROUND FIELD
MINIMUMS THROUGH AT LEAST 17Z WITH CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVING TO
IFR FOR THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD PER LAMP GUIDANCE. CLIMATOLOGY
WOULD SHOW ONLY ABOUT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR REMAINING AFTER
19Z BUT WE ARE ALSO UNDER AN UNUSUALLY STRONG INVERSION ALOFT.
WILL PROBABLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND GIVE MVFR CIGS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE RETURNING TO VLIFR AROUND
06Z. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. MODELS THEN
SHOW A SOUTHERLY SURGE ENTERING THE WATERS. WOULD EXPECT A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD OF 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS AT THE ONSET. SOUTHERLY WINDS
THEREAFTER APPEAR TO LOCALLY GUST AROUND 22 KT MAKING FOR A
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS EVENT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE 30 NM
OR MORE OFFSHORE. GIVEN THAT IFFY AND SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED
NATURE...WILL NOT ISSUE FOR WINDS AT THIS TIME. WINDS EASE MONDAY
MIGHT AND REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT UNTIL PERHAPS A WEEK FROM NOW.

SEAS HAVE STUBBORNLY REMAINED AROUND 9 TO 11 FT THROUGH THE NIGHT.
DECIDED TO KEEP THE SEAS ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
AND ALSO BROUGHT THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS BACK IN. BUOY 005
CONTINUES TO RUN ABOUT 12FT AT THIS HOUR AND WILL TAKE AT LEAST 12
HOURS AFTER IT DROPS TO SEE THE SWELL TRAIN FINALLY EASE BELOW 10
FT CLOSER TO SHORE. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER
     COLUMBIA-NORTH OREGON COAST-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR GREATER
     VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 AM
     TO 10 AM PST THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 PM
     TO 11 PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 251037
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
237 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
More fog and low clouds are expected today as high pressure
returns. Record high temperatures will be possible both today and
Monday across southeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. A
weak storm system will affect the area mid- week...increasing the
threat of light valley rain and mountain snow. A ridge of high
pressure will then rebound late in the week for drier weather and
more fog.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Mon Nt: The main challenges for today and Mon will
be fog and/or the areal coverage of stratus...as well as the
possibility of record high temps. Much of Ern Wa and N Idaho
remain under a canopy of low clouds and areas of fog. Concerning
the dense fog advisory for this morning... we expect vsbys to
fall once again to below one half mile once the thick mid cloud
deck over the advsy area exits east. This will be our number one
priority and we`ll adjust the fcst as needed. Rapid height rises
aloft accompanying a quickly strengthening upper ridge today will
lead to a dry fcst and, as lower tropospheric temps warm
considerably, those sites that mix (non- deep valley sites) will
likely see record or near record high temps across SE Washington
and adjacent parts of N Idaho. Monday should see similar
to slightly cooler temps as the warm temps aloft cool slightly
as the upper ridge weakens. Towns close to the Cascades and in
the Nrn Wa valleys likely won`t mix and could remain under fog
and/or low clouds a good part of the day. bz

Tuesday through Saturday: A strong ridge of high pressure will
dominate the region. Models do show a weak cold front topping over
the ridge Tuesday and Tuesday night. This may result in some light
precip in the form of rain and high mountain snow, but this
feature weakens considerably as it pushes into the ridge. Will
continue to leave some low chance precip chances in the mountains
and in the ID Panhandle. The main affect that this front will have
will to cool the low to mid levels of the atmosphere off and
weaken the surface inversion. This may be enough to break up the
low clouds and fog across the region on Tuesday and Wednesday.
This will also bring an end to the abnormally warm temps across
portions of the region that have not been stuck under the low
clouds.

The trend after mid week will be for the ridge to re-establish
itself over the region. Models do show another shortwave
disturbance (even weaker than on Tuesday) pushing through the
ridge on Thursday. Will keep a small chance of precip in the
mountains for this wave, but should otherwise brush by without
notice. Models then diverge a bit with how strong the ridge will
become heading into next weekend. The ECMWF and the Canadian
models have shown a more amplified longwave pressure pattern with
the ridge building further in. The Canadian model places the axis
of the ridge more offshore and places the Inland Northwest in a
colder northernly flow pattern. The ECMWF, on the other hand,
places the ridge squarely over the region and pushes moisture off
of the Pacific further north into BC. The GFS solution is a bit
flatter and would present the best possibility for precip (mainly
across the northern zones) with an atmospheric river setting up
into southern BC. The forecast was trended between the 12Z GFS and
ECMWF guidance, but confidence is low due to high model
uncertainty. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The area stratus and fog remain problematic in the
aviation forecasts for the next 24 hours with the ridge of high
pressure in place and abundant low level moisture lingering. Any
improvements are expected to be short lived except for locations
south of KGEG which would include KPUW and KLWS as  low level
east winds off the North Idaho Panhandle Mountains are helping to
inhibit re-intensification of stratus/low clouds. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  35  46  35  44  33 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  47  33  47  33  45  34 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Pullman        55  40  55  38  51  37 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Lewiston       58  40  58  39  53  39 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Colville       44  30  43  27  41  30 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      44  31  46  31  45  33 /  10   0   0   0  10  20
Kellogg        46  34  48  33  48  34 /  10   0   0   0   0  20
Moses Lake     47  35  46  32  45  33 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      45  33  46  30  44  33 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           42  34  40  30  37  31 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Northeast
     Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Spokane Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 251037
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
237 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
More fog and low clouds are expected today as high pressure
returns. Record high temperatures will be possible both today and
Monday across southeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. A
weak storm system will affect the area mid- week...increasing the
threat of light valley rain and mountain snow. A ridge of high
pressure will then rebound late in the week for drier weather and
more fog.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Mon Nt: The main challenges for today and Mon will
be fog and/or the areal coverage of stratus...as well as the
possibility of record high temps. Much of Ern Wa and N Idaho
remain under a canopy of low clouds and areas of fog. Concerning
the dense fog advisory for this morning... we expect vsbys to
fall once again to below one half mile once the thick mid cloud
deck over the advsy area exits east. This will be our number one
priority and we`ll adjust the fcst as needed. Rapid height rises
aloft accompanying a quickly strengthening upper ridge today will
lead to a dry fcst and, as lower tropospheric temps warm
considerably, those sites that mix (non- deep valley sites) will
likely see record or near record high temps across SE Washington
and adjacent parts of N Idaho. Monday should see similar
to slightly cooler temps as the warm temps aloft cool slightly
as the upper ridge weakens. Towns close to the Cascades and in
the Nrn Wa valleys likely won`t mix and could remain under fog
and/or low clouds a good part of the day. bz

Tuesday through Saturday: A strong ridge of high pressure will
dominate the region. Models do show a weak cold front topping over
the ridge Tuesday and Tuesday night. This may result in some light
precip in the form of rain and high mountain snow, but this
feature weakens considerably as it pushes into the ridge. Will
continue to leave some low chance precip chances in the mountains
and in the ID Panhandle. The main affect that this front will have
will to cool the low to mid levels of the atmosphere off and
weaken the surface inversion. This may be enough to break up the
low clouds and fog across the region on Tuesday and Wednesday.
This will also bring an end to the abnormally warm temps across
portions of the region that have not been stuck under the low
clouds.

The trend after mid week will be for the ridge to re-establish
itself over the region. Models do show another shortwave
disturbance (even weaker than on Tuesday) pushing through the
ridge on Thursday. Will keep a small chance of precip in the
mountains for this wave, but should otherwise brush by without
notice. Models then diverge a bit with how strong the ridge will
become heading into next weekend. The ECMWF and the Canadian
models have shown a more amplified longwave pressure pattern with
the ridge building further in. The Canadian model places the axis
of the ridge more offshore and places the Inland Northwest in a
colder northernly flow pattern. The ECMWF, on the other hand,
places the ridge squarely over the region and pushes moisture off
of the Pacific further north into BC. The GFS solution is a bit
flatter and would present the best possibility for precip (mainly
across the northern zones) with an atmospheric river setting up
into southern BC. The forecast was trended between the 12Z GFS and
ECMWF guidance, but confidence is low due to high model
uncertainty. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The area stratus and fog remain problematic in the
aviation forecasts for the next 24 hours with the ridge of high
pressure in place and abundant low level moisture lingering. Any
improvements are expected to be short lived except for locations
south of KGEG which would include KPUW and KLWS as  low level
east winds off the North Idaho Panhandle Mountains are helping to
inhibit re-intensification of stratus/low clouds. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  35  46  35  44  33 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  47  33  47  33  45  34 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Pullman        55  40  55  38  51  37 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Lewiston       58  40  58  39  53  39 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Colville       44  30  43  27  41  30 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      44  31  46  31  45  33 /  10   0   0   0  10  20
Kellogg        46  34  48  33  48  34 /  10   0   0   0   0  20
Moses Lake     47  35  46  32  45  33 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      45  33  46  30  44  33 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           42  34  40  30  37  31 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Northeast
     Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Spokane Area.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 250536
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
936 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will bring valley rain and high mountain snow to
the area tonight. More fog and low clouds are expected once this
system moves out of the area overnight and high pressure returns.
Record high temperatures may be possible both Sunday and Monday. A
weak storm system will affect the area mid-week. A ridge of high
pressure will rebound late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Fog looks just widespread enough in the north from about the 2300
ft elevation in the Spokane West Plains area and extending north
at somewhat lower elevations to issue a dense fog advisory running
for the rest of tonight until 1 pm tomorrow to address its
presence. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The area stratus and fog remain problematic in the
aviation forecasts for the next 24 hours with the ridge of high
pressure in place and abundant low level moisture lingering. Any
improvements are expected to be short lived except for locations
south of KGEG which would include KPUW and KLWS as  low level
east winds off the North Idaho Panhandle Mountains are helping to
inhibit reintensification of stratus/low clouds. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  47  35  47  35  44 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  39  47  33  49  33  45 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        41  55  40  55  38  51 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       42  58  40  58  39  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       36  41  30  43  27  41 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      38  45  31  48  31  45 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        37  47  34  52  33  48 /  50  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     36  49  35  46  32  45 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      36  47  33  47  30  44 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           34  41  34  40  30  37 /  10   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST Sunday for Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Spokane Area.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 250536
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
936 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will bring valley rain and high mountain snow to
the area tonight. More fog and low clouds are expected once this
system moves out of the area overnight and high pressure returns.
Record high temperatures may be possible both Sunday and Monday. A
weak storm system will affect the area mid-week. A ridge of high
pressure will rebound late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Fog looks just widespread enough in the north from about the 2300
ft elevation in the Spokane West Plains area and extending north
at somewhat lower elevations to issue a dense fog advisory running
for the rest of tonight until 1 pm tomorrow to address its
presence. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The area stratus and fog remain problematic in the
aviation forecasts for the next 24 hours with the ridge of high
pressure in place and abundant low level moisture lingering. Any
improvements are expected to be short lived except for locations
south of KGEG which would include KPUW and KLWS as  low level
east winds off the North Idaho Panhandle Mountains are helping to
inhibit reintensification of stratus/low clouds. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  47  35  47  35  44 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  39  47  33  49  33  45 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        41  55  40  55  38  51 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       42  58  40  58  39  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       36  41  30  43  27  41 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      38  45  31  48  31  45 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        37  47  34  52  33  48 /  50  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     36  49  35  46  32  45 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      36  47  33  47  30  44 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           34  41  34  40  30  37 /  10   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST Sunday for Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Spokane Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 250523
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
920 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE REGION. A WEAK FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TUESDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE WARM FRONT HAS SHIFTED NORTH INTO B.C. AND THE
WEATHER WILL BE DRY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWLAND TEMPS AND DEW POINTS ARE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S THIS EVENING...AND NOT SURPRISINGLY LOW
CLOUDS HAVE FORMED. THE FREEZING LEVEL AT KUIL WAS 12KFT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE WARM UPPER RIDGE PUSHED UP OVER THE REGION...WITH
A WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE HIGHS HAVE A CHANCE TO GET UP AROUND 60 THE
NEXT TWO DAYS...AS THEY DID TODAY IN A COUPLE SPOTS. A WEAK FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE AS IT REACHES THE AREA TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH
REMAINING OVER THE AREA ON WED THAT IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAKENING
FRONT THU OR THU EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PERIODS THAT
WILL BE DRY IN THE TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT PERIOD...BUT MODEL
CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY WITH THESE VERY WEAK FEATURES IS NOT TOO
HIGH AT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...FORECASTS WILL INDICATE CLOUDS AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S.

THE EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RIDGING INCREASING ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE NORTHWEST THU NIGHT OR FRI AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS JUST OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH OVER
SOUTHEASTERN BC...THE LOWER LEVEL AIR MASS...WHILE STILL MILD FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS WARM AS THE ONE WE ARE
SEEING AT THIS TIME. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE GAGES ON THE SNOQUALMIE RIVER SHOW THE RIVER
FLAT...AND ABOVE CARNATION THE RIVER IS RECEDING...FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED AND THE WARNING WAS CANCELLED.

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL EASE TONIGHT AND BECOMING LIGHT OFFSHORE SUNDAY. AIR MASS
MOIST AND STABLE.

CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY BELOW 1000 FEET WITH LOCAL CEILINGS IN THE
1000-2000 FOOT RANGE. THERE HAS BEEN SOME BRIEF SCATTERING OUT OF
THE CLOUDS IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BUT WITH THE LOWER LEVELS SO
MOIST...DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...THE CLOUDS FILL BACK IN
AGAIN QUICKLY. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOIST LOWER LEVELS WILL
STAY WITH THE IFR/LOW END OF MVFR CEILINGS INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. CONDITIONS IMPROVING MIDDAY SUNDAY WITH JUST
SCATTERED CLOUDS BY MID AFTERNOON.

KSEA...CEILINGS AOB 1000 FEET INTO SUNDAY MORNING. COULD SEE A BRIEF
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE NEXT THREE HOURS. WITH THE
SOUTHERLY GRADIENTS LOW VISIBILITY FOG...LESS THAN 1 SM...NOT
PROBABLE BUT COULD SEE SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
UNTIL 18Z. CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE MIDDAY SUNDAY. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING LIGHT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OUTER COASTAL
WATERS EASING ON SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
FOR THE OUTER SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS...INNER COASTAL WATERS AND
WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY CONTINUE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.

A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MOST AREAS AT TIMES FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLY
WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE STRAIT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FELTON/BURKE

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OUTER
     COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAZARDOUS SEAS INNER COASTAL WATERS
     ...WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT AND SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL
     WATERS.
&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
















000
FXUS66 KPQR 250411
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
810 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&
.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN MEANS THAT THERE WILL
BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS..AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER.

SOME HIGH AND THIN CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS A
FRONT WELL OFFSHORE MOVES NORTH OVER THE RIDGE. THESE CLOUDS MAY SLOW
THE RADIATION COOLING A LITTLE...BUT ARE NOT THICK ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPS.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT FOG IS STARTING TO FORM ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THIS EVENING AND THE PDX AIRPORT IS BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF SHALLOW FOG. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR THE COAST WITH THE
EVENING UPDATE...BUT OTHERWISE LEFT THE FORECAST UNCHANGED. TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...TODAY DEFINITELY DOES
NOT SEEM LIKE LATE JANUARY...MORE LIKE MID-APRIL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH MODEL 500 MB HEIGHT OVERLAYS SHOW A 590 DM HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR
35N 130W. THE MODEL 582 DM CONTOUR WAS AS FAR N AS KTMK. SOME
LOCATIONS ALREADY THREATENING RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY DUE TO
MINIMAL MORNING INVERSIONS. KPDX WAS 60 DEG AT 21Z...JUST ONE OFF THE
RECORD FOR THE DATE. KTTD WAS 62 DEG AT 21Z...ALREADY TOPPING THE
RECORD OF 61 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1984.

THE 12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE ANY REMAINING ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON TO BE CONFINED TO THE SW WA ZONES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AND SUN. VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH BETTER RADIATIVE CONDITIONS FOR FOG AND
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER INVERSIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUN
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. INLAND VALLEY MAX TEMP FORECASTS WILL BECOME MORE
CHALLENGING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST NAM HINTS AT A
LITTLE LIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE TONIGHT...
BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO STIR THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALL THAT MUCH.

THE STRONG H5 RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE +15C TO +18C 850 TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION SUN. THE LATEST NAEFS OUTPUT STILL INDICATES MAX 850 MB TEMP
PERCENTILES 06Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE. IF IT WERE LATE MAY OR JUNE
INLAND MAX TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE PUSHING 90 DEG. OBVIOUSLY...SUN
ANGLE IS A MAJOR FACTOR. EXPECT AREAS N OF KUAO TO HAVE A HIGHER
CHANCE OF CLEARING SUN AND MON. AREAS S OF KUAO LIKELY TO HAVE MORE
PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS... ESPECIALLY MON IF A LIGHT NLY
SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. KAST AND KONP LIKELY TO BREAK RECORD HIGH
TEMPS SUN. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A FEW JANUARY DAYS WITH 850 MB TEMPS
AT OR ABOVE 17C SINCE THE 1950S WHEN UPPER AIR RECORDS ARE FIRST
AVAILABLE. SIMILARLY...LOW TEMPS SUN AND MON MORNING EXPECTED TO BE
MILD ABOVE THE INVERSION IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS WELL E OF THE REGION MON WITH H8 TEMPS COOLING TO 10 TO 12C.

GFS...NAM AND ECMWF TRY TO BRING SOME ENERGY NWD THROUGH NEVADA MON
NIGHT FROM A TROUGH SLIDING INTO CENTRAL AND SRN CALIFORNIA.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE
COAST AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME. MODELS HOLD THE NEVADA MOISTURE OVER
EXTREME SRN OREGON TUE WHILE THE WEAKENING PAC FRONT FALLS APART AS
IT TRIES TO MOVE INLAND. EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
OVER SW WA AND COASTAL AREAS OF NW OREGON TUE. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY BRINGING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT LEAST...AS THE FRONT
DRAGS AND LINGERS. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING BY
THURSDAY...BRINGING THE RETURN OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND
BENIGN CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS.
/27
&&


.AVIATION...STABLE AND RATHER MILD AIR MASS REMAINS OVER REGION
THROUGH SUN...WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS ON SW FLOW ALOFT. AREAS OF
IFR FOG AND STRATUS ALREADY FORMING ACROSS REGION...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT. WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...LIKELY TO SEE
TOPS OF FOG/CLOUDS RUNNING AT 1000 TO 1500 FT. COASTAL FOG/CLOUDS
WILL BURN OFF SUN AM...BUT INLAND FOG/CLOUDS WILL TAKE MUCH
LONGER. SUSPECT MANY INLAND AREAS...SUCH AS COWLITZ VALLEY AND
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TO S OF KSLE...MAY NOT BREAK OUT TO VFR TIL
CLOSE TO 23Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...NOT MUCH GRADIENT...SO LIKELY TO SEE FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS KPDX OPS AREA BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z...
AND PERSIST WELL INTO SUN AM. LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST WILL
GRADUALLY BREAK OUT TO VFR BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z SUN.ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE...AS HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH MON AM...BUT WILL
PICK UP A TAD LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION.

SEAS STILL HOLDING AT 10 FT ACROSS THE N WATERS...OR N OF CASCADE
HEAD. SEAS NOW RUNNING 8 TO 9 FT TO THE S OF CASCADE HEAD. WILL
KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR N WATERS TONIGHT. ANOTHER BAND OF
SWELL WILL ARRIVE ON SUN...BUT THIS SWELL WILL BE DECAYING AS IT
ARRIVES. NO ADVISORY YET...AS APPEARS THIS SWELL WILL REMAIN UNDER
10 FT. WILL LET NEXT SHIFT RE-EVALUATE. ROCKEY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
     ON COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN CAPE SHOALWATER AND CASCADE HEAD.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITION THIS
     EVENING...AND AGAIN SUN AM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 250411
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
810 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&
.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN MEANS THAT THERE WILL
BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS..AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER.

SOME HIGH AND THIN CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS A
FRONT WELL OFFSHORE MOVES NORTH OVER THE RIDGE. THESE CLOUDS MAY SLOW
THE RADIATION COOLING A LITTLE...BUT ARE NOT THICK ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPS.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT FOG IS STARTING TO FORM ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THIS EVENING AND THE PDX AIRPORT IS BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF SHALLOW FOG. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR THE COAST WITH THE
EVENING UPDATE...BUT OTHERWISE LEFT THE FORECAST UNCHANGED. TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...TODAY DEFINITELY DOES
NOT SEEM LIKE LATE JANUARY...MORE LIKE MID-APRIL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH MODEL 500 MB HEIGHT OVERLAYS SHOW A 590 DM HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR
35N 130W. THE MODEL 582 DM CONTOUR WAS AS FAR N AS KTMK. SOME
LOCATIONS ALREADY THREATENING RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY DUE TO
MINIMAL MORNING INVERSIONS. KPDX WAS 60 DEG AT 21Z...JUST ONE OFF THE
RECORD FOR THE DATE. KTTD WAS 62 DEG AT 21Z...ALREADY TOPPING THE
RECORD OF 61 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1984.

THE 12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE ANY REMAINING ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON TO BE CONFINED TO THE SW WA ZONES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AND SUN. VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH BETTER RADIATIVE CONDITIONS FOR FOG AND
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER INVERSIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUN
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. INLAND VALLEY MAX TEMP FORECASTS WILL BECOME MORE
CHALLENGING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST NAM HINTS AT A
LITTLE LIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE TONIGHT...
BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO STIR THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALL THAT MUCH.

THE STRONG H5 RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE +15C TO +18C 850 TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION SUN. THE LATEST NAEFS OUTPUT STILL INDICATES MAX 850 MB TEMP
PERCENTILES 06Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE. IF IT WERE LATE MAY OR JUNE
INLAND MAX TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE PUSHING 90 DEG. OBVIOUSLY...SUN
ANGLE IS A MAJOR FACTOR. EXPECT AREAS N OF KUAO TO HAVE A HIGHER
CHANCE OF CLEARING SUN AND MON. AREAS S OF KUAO LIKELY TO HAVE MORE
PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS... ESPECIALLY MON IF A LIGHT NLY
SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. KAST AND KONP LIKELY TO BREAK RECORD HIGH
TEMPS SUN. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A FEW JANUARY DAYS WITH 850 MB TEMPS
AT OR ABOVE 17C SINCE THE 1950S WHEN UPPER AIR RECORDS ARE FIRST
AVAILABLE. SIMILARLY...LOW TEMPS SUN AND MON MORNING EXPECTED TO BE
MILD ABOVE THE INVERSION IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS WELL E OF THE REGION MON WITH H8 TEMPS COOLING TO 10 TO 12C.

GFS...NAM AND ECMWF TRY TO BRING SOME ENERGY NWD THROUGH NEVADA MON
NIGHT FROM A TROUGH SLIDING INTO CENTRAL AND SRN CALIFORNIA.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE
COAST AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME. MODELS HOLD THE NEVADA MOISTURE OVER
EXTREME SRN OREGON TUE WHILE THE WEAKENING PAC FRONT FALLS APART AS
IT TRIES TO MOVE INLAND. EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
OVER SW WA AND COASTAL AREAS OF NW OREGON TUE. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY BRINGING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT LEAST...AS THE FRONT
DRAGS AND LINGERS. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING BY
THURSDAY...BRINGING THE RETURN OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND
BENIGN CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS.
/27
&&


.AVIATION...STABLE AND RATHER MILD AIR MASS REMAINS OVER REGION
THROUGH SUN...WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS ON SW FLOW ALOFT. AREAS OF
IFR FOG AND STRATUS ALREADY FORMING ACROSS REGION...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT. WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...LIKELY TO SEE
TOPS OF FOG/CLOUDS RUNNING AT 1000 TO 1500 FT. COASTAL FOG/CLOUDS
WILL BURN OFF SUN AM...BUT INLAND FOG/CLOUDS WILL TAKE MUCH
LONGER. SUSPECT MANY INLAND AREAS...SUCH AS COWLITZ VALLEY AND
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TO S OF KSLE...MAY NOT BREAK OUT TO VFR TIL
CLOSE TO 23Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...NOT MUCH GRADIENT...SO LIKELY TO SEE FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS KPDX OPS AREA BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z...
AND PERSIST WELL INTO SUN AM. LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST WILL
GRADUALLY BREAK OUT TO VFR BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z SUN.ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE...AS HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH MON AM...BUT WILL
PICK UP A TAD LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION.

SEAS STILL HOLDING AT 10 FT ACROSS THE N WATERS...OR N OF CASCADE
HEAD. SEAS NOW RUNNING 8 TO 9 FT TO THE S OF CASCADE HEAD. WILL
KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR N WATERS TONIGHT. ANOTHER BAND OF
SWELL WILL ARRIVE ON SUN...BUT THIS SWELL WILL BE DECAYING AS IT
ARRIVES. NO ADVISORY YET...AS APPEARS THIS SWELL WILL REMAIN UNDER
10 FT. WILL LET NEXT SHIFT RE-EVALUATE. ROCKEY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
     ON COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN CAPE SHOALWATER AND CASCADE HEAD.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITION THIS
     EVENING...AND AGAIN SUN AM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 250411
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
810 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&
.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN MEANS THAT THERE WILL
BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS..AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER.

SOME HIGH AND THIN CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS A
FRONT WELL OFFSHORE MOVES NORTH OVER THE RIDGE. THESE CLOUDS MAY SLOW
THE RADIATION COOLING A LITTLE...BUT ARE NOT THICK ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPS.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT FOG IS STARTING TO FORM ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THIS EVENING AND THE PDX AIRPORT IS BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF SHALLOW FOG. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR THE COAST WITH THE
EVENING UPDATE...BUT OTHERWISE LEFT THE FORECAST UNCHANGED. TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...TODAY DEFINITELY DOES
NOT SEEM LIKE LATE JANUARY...MORE LIKE MID-APRIL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH MODEL 500 MB HEIGHT OVERLAYS SHOW A 590 DM HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR
35N 130W. THE MODEL 582 DM CONTOUR WAS AS FAR N AS KTMK. SOME
LOCATIONS ALREADY THREATENING RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY DUE TO
MINIMAL MORNING INVERSIONS. KPDX WAS 60 DEG AT 21Z...JUST ONE OFF THE
RECORD FOR THE DATE. KTTD WAS 62 DEG AT 21Z...ALREADY TOPPING THE
RECORD OF 61 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1984.

THE 12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE ANY REMAINING ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON TO BE CONFINED TO THE SW WA ZONES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AND SUN. VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH BETTER RADIATIVE CONDITIONS FOR FOG AND
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER INVERSIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUN
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. INLAND VALLEY MAX TEMP FORECASTS WILL BECOME MORE
CHALLENGING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST NAM HINTS AT A
LITTLE LIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE TONIGHT...
BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO STIR THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALL THAT MUCH.

THE STRONG H5 RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE +15C TO +18C 850 TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION SUN. THE LATEST NAEFS OUTPUT STILL INDICATES MAX 850 MB TEMP
PERCENTILES 06Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE. IF IT WERE LATE MAY OR JUNE
INLAND MAX TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE PUSHING 90 DEG. OBVIOUSLY...SUN
ANGLE IS A MAJOR FACTOR. EXPECT AREAS N OF KUAO TO HAVE A HIGHER
CHANCE OF CLEARING SUN AND MON. AREAS S OF KUAO LIKELY TO HAVE MORE
PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS... ESPECIALLY MON IF A LIGHT NLY
SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. KAST AND KONP LIKELY TO BREAK RECORD HIGH
TEMPS SUN. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A FEW JANUARY DAYS WITH 850 MB TEMPS
AT OR ABOVE 17C SINCE THE 1950S WHEN UPPER AIR RECORDS ARE FIRST
AVAILABLE. SIMILARLY...LOW TEMPS SUN AND MON MORNING EXPECTED TO BE
MILD ABOVE THE INVERSION IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS WELL E OF THE REGION MON WITH H8 TEMPS COOLING TO 10 TO 12C.

GFS...NAM AND ECMWF TRY TO BRING SOME ENERGY NWD THROUGH NEVADA MON
NIGHT FROM A TROUGH SLIDING INTO CENTRAL AND SRN CALIFORNIA.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE
COAST AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME. MODELS HOLD THE NEVADA MOISTURE OVER
EXTREME SRN OREGON TUE WHILE THE WEAKENING PAC FRONT FALLS APART AS
IT TRIES TO MOVE INLAND. EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
OVER SW WA AND COASTAL AREAS OF NW OREGON TUE. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY BRINGING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT LEAST...AS THE FRONT
DRAGS AND LINGERS. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING BY
THURSDAY...BRINGING THE RETURN OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND
BENIGN CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS.
/27
&&


.AVIATION...STABLE AND RATHER MILD AIR MASS REMAINS OVER REGION
THROUGH SUN...WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS ON SW FLOW ALOFT. AREAS OF
IFR FOG AND STRATUS ALREADY FORMING ACROSS REGION...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT. WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...LIKELY TO SEE
TOPS OF FOG/CLOUDS RUNNING AT 1000 TO 1500 FT. COASTAL FOG/CLOUDS
WILL BURN OFF SUN AM...BUT INLAND FOG/CLOUDS WILL TAKE MUCH
LONGER. SUSPECT MANY INLAND AREAS...SUCH AS COWLITZ VALLEY AND
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TO S OF KSLE...MAY NOT BREAK OUT TO VFR TIL
CLOSE TO 23Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...NOT MUCH GRADIENT...SO LIKELY TO SEE FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS KPDX OPS AREA BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z...
AND PERSIST WELL INTO SUN AM. LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST WILL
GRADUALLY BREAK OUT TO VFR BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z SUN.ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE...AS HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH MON AM...BUT WILL
PICK UP A TAD LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION.

SEAS STILL HOLDING AT 10 FT ACROSS THE N WATERS...OR N OF CASCADE
HEAD. SEAS NOW RUNNING 8 TO 9 FT TO THE S OF CASCADE HEAD. WILL
KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR N WATERS TONIGHT. ANOTHER BAND OF
SWELL WILL ARRIVE ON SUN...BUT THIS SWELL WILL BE DECAYING AS IT
ARRIVES. NO ADVISORY YET...AS APPEARS THIS SWELL WILL REMAIN UNDER
10 FT. WILL LET NEXT SHIFT RE-EVALUATE. ROCKEY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
     ON COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN CAPE SHOALWATER AND CASCADE HEAD.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITION THIS
     EVENING...AND AGAIN SUN AM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 250411
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
810 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&
.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN MEANS THAT THERE WILL
BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS..AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER.

SOME HIGH AND THIN CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS A
FRONT WELL OFFSHORE MOVES NORTH OVER THE RIDGE. THESE CLOUDS MAY SLOW
THE RADIATION COOLING A LITTLE...BUT ARE NOT THICK ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPS.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT FOG IS STARTING TO FORM ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THIS EVENING AND THE PDX AIRPORT IS BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF SHALLOW FOG. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR THE COAST WITH THE
EVENING UPDATE...BUT OTHERWISE LEFT THE FORECAST UNCHANGED. TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...TODAY DEFINITELY DOES
NOT SEEM LIKE LATE JANUARY...MORE LIKE MID-APRIL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH MODEL 500 MB HEIGHT OVERLAYS SHOW A 590 DM HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR
35N 130W. THE MODEL 582 DM CONTOUR WAS AS FAR N AS KTMK. SOME
LOCATIONS ALREADY THREATENING RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY DUE TO
MINIMAL MORNING INVERSIONS. KPDX WAS 60 DEG AT 21Z...JUST ONE OFF THE
RECORD FOR THE DATE. KTTD WAS 62 DEG AT 21Z...ALREADY TOPPING THE
RECORD OF 61 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1984.

THE 12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE ANY REMAINING ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON TO BE CONFINED TO THE SW WA ZONES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AND SUN. VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH BETTER RADIATIVE CONDITIONS FOR FOG AND
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER INVERSIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUN
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. INLAND VALLEY MAX TEMP FORECASTS WILL BECOME MORE
CHALLENGING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST NAM HINTS AT A
LITTLE LIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE TONIGHT...
BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO STIR THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALL THAT MUCH.

THE STRONG H5 RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE +15C TO +18C 850 TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION SUN. THE LATEST NAEFS OUTPUT STILL INDICATES MAX 850 MB TEMP
PERCENTILES 06Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE. IF IT WERE LATE MAY OR JUNE
INLAND MAX TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE PUSHING 90 DEG. OBVIOUSLY...SUN
ANGLE IS A MAJOR FACTOR. EXPECT AREAS N OF KUAO TO HAVE A HIGHER
CHANCE OF CLEARING SUN AND MON. AREAS S OF KUAO LIKELY TO HAVE MORE
PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS... ESPECIALLY MON IF A LIGHT NLY
SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. KAST AND KONP LIKELY TO BREAK RECORD HIGH
TEMPS SUN. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A FEW JANUARY DAYS WITH 850 MB TEMPS
AT OR ABOVE 17C SINCE THE 1950S WHEN UPPER AIR RECORDS ARE FIRST
AVAILABLE. SIMILARLY...LOW TEMPS SUN AND MON MORNING EXPECTED TO BE
MILD ABOVE THE INVERSION IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS WELL E OF THE REGION MON WITH H8 TEMPS COOLING TO 10 TO 12C.

GFS...NAM AND ECMWF TRY TO BRING SOME ENERGY NWD THROUGH NEVADA MON
NIGHT FROM A TROUGH SLIDING INTO CENTRAL AND SRN CALIFORNIA.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE
COAST AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME. MODELS HOLD THE NEVADA MOISTURE OVER
EXTREME SRN OREGON TUE WHILE THE WEAKENING PAC FRONT FALLS APART AS
IT TRIES TO MOVE INLAND. EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
OVER SW WA AND COASTAL AREAS OF NW OREGON TUE. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY BRINGING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT LEAST...AS THE FRONT
DRAGS AND LINGERS. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING BY
THURSDAY...BRINGING THE RETURN OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND
BENIGN CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS.
/27
&&


.AVIATION...STABLE AND RATHER MILD AIR MASS REMAINS OVER REGION
THROUGH SUN...WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS ON SW FLOW ALOFT. AREAS OF
IFR FOG AND STRATUS ALREADY FORMING ACROSS REGION...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT. WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...LIKELY TO SEE
TOPS OF FOG/CLOUDS RUNNING AT 1000 TO 1500 FT. COASTAL FOG/CLOUDS
WILL BURN OFF SUN AM...BUT INLAND FOG/CLOUDS WILL TAKE MUCH
LONGER. SUSPECT MANY INLAND AREAS...SUCH AS COWLITZ VALLEY AND
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TO S OF KSLE...MAY NOT BREAK OUT TO VFR TIL
CLOSE TO 23Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...NOT MUCH GRADIENT...SO LIKELY TO SEE FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS KPDX OPS AREA BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z...
AND PERSIST WELL INTO SUN AM. LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST WILL
GRADUALLY BREAK OUT TO VFR BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z SUN.ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE...AS HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH MON AM...BUT WILL
PICK UP A TAD LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION.

SEAS STILL HOLDING AT 10 FT ACROSS THE N WATERS...OR N OF CASCADE
HEAD. SEAS NOW RUNNING 8 TO 9 FT TO THE S OF CASCADE HEAD. WILL
KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR N WATERS TONIGHT. ANOTHER BAND OF
SWELL WILL ARRIVE ON SUN...BUT THIS SWELL WILL BE DECAYING AS IT
ARRIVES. NO ADVISORY YET...AS APPEARS THIS SWELL WILL REMAIN UNDER
10 FT. WILL LET NEXT SHIFT RE-EVALUATE. ROCKEY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
     ON COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN CAPE SHOALWATER AND CASCADE HEAD.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITION THIS
     EVENING...AND AGAIN SUN AM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 250411
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
810 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&
.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN MEANS THAT THERE WILL
BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS..AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER.

SOME HIGH AND THIN CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS A
FRONT WELL OFFSHORE MOVES NORTH OVER THE RIDGE. THESE CLOUDS MAY SLOW
THE RADIATION COOLING A LITTLE...BUT ARE NOT THICK ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPS.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT FOG IS STARTING TO FORM ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THIS EVENING AND THE PDX AIRPORT IS BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF SHALLOW FOG. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR THE COAST WITH THE
EVENING UPDATE...BUT OTHERWISE LEFT THE FORECAST UNCHANGED. TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...TODAY DEFINITELY DOES
NOT SEEM LIKE LATE JANUARY...MORE LIKE MID-APRIL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH MODEL 500 MB HEIGHT OVERLAYS SHOW A 590 DM HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR
35N 130W. THE MODEL 582 DM CONTOUR WAS AS FAR N AS KTMK. SOME
LOCATIONS ALREADY THREATENING RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY DUE TO
MINIMAL MORNING INVERSIONS. KPDX WAS 60 DEG AT 21Z...JUST ONE OFF THE
RECORD FOR THE DATE. KTTD WAS 62 DEG AT 21Z...ALREADY TOPPING THE
RECORD OF 61 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1984.

THE 12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE ANY REMAINING ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON TO BE CONFINED TO THE SW WA ZONES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AND SUN. VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH BETTER RADIATIVE CONDITIONS FOR FOG AND
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER INVERSIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUN
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. INLAND VALLEY MAX TEMP FORECASTS WILL BECOME MORE
CHALLENGING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST NAM HINTS AT A
LITTLE LIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE TONIGHT...
BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO STIR THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALL THAT MUCH.

THE STRONG H5 RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE +15C TO +18C 850 TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION SUN. THE LATEST NAEFS OUTPUT STILL INDICATES MAX 850 MB TEMP
PERCENTILES 06Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE. IF IT WERE LATE MAY OR JUNE
INLAND MAX TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE PUSHING 90 DEG. OBVIOUSLY...SUN
ANGLE IS A MAJOR FACTOR. EXPECT AREAS N OF KUAO TO HAVE A HIGHER
CHANCE OF CLEARING SUN AND MON. AREAS S OF KUAO LIKELY TO HAVE MORE
PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS... ESPECIALLY MON IF A LIGHT NLY
SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. KAST AND KONP LIKELY TO BREAK RECORD HIGH
TEMPS SUN. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A FEW JANUARY DAYS WITH 850 MB TEMPS
AT OR ABOVE 17C SINCE THE 1950S WHEN UPPER AIR RECORDS ARE FIRST
AVAILABLE. SIMILARLY...LOW TEMPS SUN AND MON MORNING EXPECTED TO BE
MILD ABOVE THE INVERSION IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS WELL E OF THE REGION MON WITH H8 TEMPS COOLING TO 10 TO 12C.

GFS...NAM AND ECMWF TRY TO BRING SOME ENERGY NWD THROUGH NEVADA MON
NIGHT FROM A TROUGH SLIDING INTO CENTRAL AND SRN CALIFORNIA.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE
COAST AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME. MODELS HOLD THE NEVADA MOISTURE OVER
EXTREME SRN OREGON TUE WHILE THE WEAKENING PAC FRONT FALLS APART AS
IT TRIES TO MOVE INLAND. EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
OVER SW WA AND COASTAL AREAS OF NW OREGON TUE. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY BRINGING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT LEAST...AS THE FRONT
DRAGS AND LINGERS. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING BY
THURSDAY...BRINGING THE RETURN OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND
BENIGN CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS.
/27
&&


.AVIATION...STABLE AND RATHER MILD AIR MASS REMAINS OVER REGION
THROUGH SUN...WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS ON SW FLOW ALOFT. AREAS OF
IFR FOG AND STRATUS ALREADY FORMING ACROSS REGION...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT. WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...LIKELY TO SEE
TOPS OF FOG/CLOUDS RUNNING AT 1000 TO 1500 FT. COASTAL FOG/CLOUDS
WILL BURN OFF SUN AM...BUT INLAND FOG/CLOUDS WILL TAKE MUCH
LONGER. SUSPECT MANY INLAND AREAS...SUCH AS COWLITZ VALLEY AND
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TO S OF KSLE...MAY NOT BREAK OUT TO VFR TIL
CLOSE TO 23Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...NOT MUCH GRADIENT...SO LIKELY TO SEE FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS KPDX OPS AREA BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z...
AND PERSIST WELL INTO SUN AM. LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST WILL
GRADUALLY BREAK OUT TO VFR BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z SUN.ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE...AS HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH MON AM...BUT WILL
PICK UP A TAD LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION.

SEAS STILL HOLDING AT 10 FT ACROSS THE N WATERS...OR N OF CASCADE
HEAD. SEAS NOW RUNNING 8 TO 9 FT TO THE S OF CASCADE HEAD. WILL
KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR N WATERS TONIGHT. ANOTHER BAND OF
SWELL WILL ARRIVE ON SUN...BUT THIS SWELL WILL BE DECAYING AS IT
ARRIVES. NO ADVISORY YET...AS APPEARS THIS SWELL WILL REMAIN UNDER
10 FT. WILL LET NEXT SHIFT RE-EVALUATE. ROCKEY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
     ON COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN CAPE SHOALWATER AND CASCADE HEAD.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITION THIS
     EVENING...AND AGAIN SUN AM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 250250
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
649 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will bring valley rain and high mountain snow to
the area tonight. More fog and low clouds are expected once this
system moves out of the area overnight and high pressure returns.
Record high temperatures may be possible both Sunday and Monday. A
weak storm system will affect the area mid-week. A ridge of high
pressure will rebound late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Fog looks just widespread enough in the north from about the 2300
ft elevation in the Spokane West Plains area and extending north
at somewhat lower elevations to issue a dense fog advisory running
for the rest of tonight until 1 pm tomorrow to address its
presence. /Pelatti


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Stratus and fog and their associated impacts on
visibility and lower ceilings continue to be an issue. Any
improvement is expected to be short lived with the exception
being locations south of KGEG to KPUW and KLWS where low level
easterly winds off the North Idaho Panhandle Mountains will work
to inhibit reintensification of stratus/low clouds tomorrow...otherwise
elsewhere new moisture will bring a return of low stratus/fog
overnight. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  47  35  47  35  44 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  39  47  33  49  33  45 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        41  55  40  55  38  51 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       42  58  40  58  39  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       36  41  30  43  27  41 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      38  45  31  48  31  45 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        37  47  34  52  33  48 /  50  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     36  49  35  46  32  45 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      36  47  33  47  30  44 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           34  41  34  40  30  37 /  10   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST Sunday for Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Spokane Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 250250
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
649 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will bring valley rain and high mountain snow to
the area tonight. More fog and low clouds are expected once this
system moves out of the area overnight and high pressure returns.
Record high temperatures may be possible both Sunday and Monday. A
weak storm system will affect the area mid-week. A ridge of high
pressure will rebound late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Fog looks just widespread enough in the north from about the 2300
ft elevation in the Spokane West Plains area and extending north
at somewhat lower elevations to issue a dense fog advisory running
for the rest of tonight until 1 pm tomorrow to address its
presence. /Pelatti


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Stratus and fog and their associated impacts on
visibility and lower ceilings continue to be an issue. Any
improvement is expected to be short lived with the exception
being locations south of KGEG to KPUW and KLWS where low level
easterly winds off the North Idaho Panhandle Mountains will work
to inhibit reintensification of stratus/low clouds tomorrow...otherwise
elsewhere new moisture will bring a return of low stratus/fog
overnight. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  47  35  47  35  44 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  39  47  33  49  33  45 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        41  55  40  55  38  51 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       42  58  40  58  39  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       36  41  30  43  27  41 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      38  45  31  48  31  45 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        37  47  34  52  33  48 /  50  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     36  49  35  46  32  45 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      36  47  33  47  30  44 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           34  41  34  40  30  37 /  10   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST Sunday for Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Spokane Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 250250
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
649 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will bring valley rain and high mountain snow to
the area tonight. More fog and low clouds are expected once this
system moves out of the area overnight and high pressure returns.
Record high temperatures may be possible both Sunday and Monday. A
weak storm system will affect the area mid-week. A ridge of high
pressure will rebound late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Fog looks just widespread enough in the north from about the 2300
ft elevation in the Spokane West Plains area and extending north
at somewhat lower elevations to issue a dense fog advisory running
for the rest of tonight until 1 pm tomorrow to address its
presence. /Pelatti


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Stratus and fog and their associated impacts on
visibility and lower ceilings continue to be an issue. Any
improvement is expected to be short lived with the exception
being locations south of KGEG to KPUW and KLWS where low level
easterly winds off the North Idaho Panhandle Mountains will work
to inhibit reintensification of stratus/low clouds tomorrow...otherwise
elsewhere new moisture will bring a return of low stratus/fog
overnight. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  47  35  47  35  44 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  39  47  33  49  33  45 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        41  55  40  55  38  51 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       42  58  40  58  39  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       36  41  30  43  27  41 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      38  45  31  48  31  45 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        37  47  34  52  33  48 /  50  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     36  49  35  46  32  45 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      36  47  33  47  30  44 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           34  41  34  40  30  37 /  10   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST Sunday for Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Spokane Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 250250
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
649 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will bring valley rain and high mountain snow to
the area tonight. More fog and low clouds are expected once this
system moves out of the area overnight and high pressure returns.
Record high temperatures may be possible both Sunday and Monday. A
weak storm system will affect the area mid-week. A ridge of high
pressure will rebound late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Fog looks just widespread enough in the north from about the 2300
ft elevation in the Spokane West Plains area and extending north
at somewhat lower elevations to issue a dense fog advisory running
for the rest of tonight until 1 pm tomorrow to address its
presence. /Pelatti


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Stratus and fog and their associated impacts on
visibility and lower ceilings continue to be an issue. Any
improvement is expected to be short lived with the exception
being locations south of KGEG to KPUW and KLWS where low level
easterly winds off the North Idaho Panhandle Mountains will work
to inhibit reintensification of stratus/low clouds tomorrow...otherwise
elsewhere new moisture will bring a return of low stratus/fog
overnight. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  47  35  47  35  44 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  39  47  33  49  33  45 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        41  55  40  55  38  51 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       42  58  40  58  39  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       36  41  30  43  27  41 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      38  45  31  48  31  45 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        37  47  34  52  33  48 /  50  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     36  49  35  46  32  45 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      36  47  33  47  30  44 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           34  41  34  40  30  37 /  10   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PST Sunday for Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Spokane Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 250217
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
616 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will bring valley rain and high mountain snow to
the area tonight. More fog and low clouds are expected once this
system moves out of the area overnight and high pressure returns.
Record high temperatures may be possible both Sunday and Monday. A
weak storm system will affect the area mid-week. A ridge of high
pressure will rebound late in the week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another evening update to add a bit more detail to the fog, some
locally dense, occurring over a number of lowland locations across
Northeast Washington and parts of North Idaho this evening. The
fog is expected to linger overnight and into a good portion of
tomorrow as high pressure remains in place and abundant low level
moisture lingers in the region. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Stratus and fog and their associated impacts on
visibility and lower ceilings continue to be an issue. Any
improvement is expected to be short lived with the exception
being locations south of KGEG to KPUW and KLWS where low level
easterly winds off the North Idaho Panhandle Mountains will work
to inhibit reintensification of stratus/low clouds
tomorrow...otherwise elsewhere new moisture will bring a return of
low stratus/fog overnight. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  47  35  47  35  44 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  39  47  33  49  33  45 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        41  55  40  55  38  51 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       42  58  40  58  39  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       36  41  30  43  27  41 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      38  45  31  48  31  45 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        37  47  34  52  33  48 /  50  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     36  49  35  46  32  45 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      36  47  33  47  30  44 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           34  41  34  40  30  37 /  10   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 250217
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
616 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will bring valley rain and high mountain snow to
the area tonight. More fog and low clouds are expected once this
system moves out of the area overnight and high pressure returns.
Record high temperatures may be possible both Sunday and Monday. A
weak storm system will affect the area mid-week. A ridge of high
pressure will rebound late in the week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another evening update to add a bit more detail to the fog, some
locally dense, occurring over a number of lowland locations across
Northeast Washington and parts of North Idaho this evening. The
fog is expected to linger overnight and into a good portion of
tomorrow as high pressure remains in place and abundant low level
moisture lingers in the region. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Stratus and fog and their associated impacts on
visibility and lower ceilings continue to be an issue. Any
improvement is expected to be short lived with the exception
being locations south of KGEG to KPUW and KLWS where low level
easterly winds off the North Idaho Panhandle Mountains will work
to inhibit reintensification of stratus/low clouds
tomorrow...otherwise elsewhere new moisture will bring a return of
low stratus/fog overnight. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  47  35  47  35  44 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  39  47  33  49  33  45 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        41  55  40  55  38  51 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       42  58  40  58  39  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       36  41  30  43  27  41 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      38  45  31  48  31  45 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        37  47  34  52  33  48 /  50  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     36  49  35  46  32  45 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      36  47  33  47  30  44 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           34  41  34  40  30  37 /  10   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 242328
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
328 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will bring valley rain and high mountain snow to
the area tonight. More fog and low clouds are expected once this
system moves out of the area overnight and high pressure returns.
Record high temperatures may be possible both Sunday and Monday. A
weak storm system will affect the area mid-week. A ridge of high
pressure will rebound late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sunday...A weak warm front will push across the region
this evening bringing some light precipitation to portions of the
Inland Northwest. Best combination of isentropic upglide and
orographic ascent will be over the eastern zones in favorable
northwest upslope flow. This impulse will move quickly southeast
tonight with precipitation ending overnight. Snow levels will be
high enough to relegate any accumulating snow to the high peaks.
The light rain this evening may act to diminish the fog/low
stratus briefly, with a return expected overnight. This system
does not have a cold front to speak of so the mild temperatures
the region experienced today will continue on Sunday. Just how
warm it will get will again depend on where the persistent fog and
stratus sets up and where breaks appear. The southeast zones
should again benefit from downsloping winds, more clearing, and
therefore should see the warmest temperatures Sunday. /Kelch

Sunday Night through Tuesday: Upper level ridge dominates into the
early work week. The main forecast challenge is the extent of the
fog and low clouds. Both the GFS and NAM agree pretty well on
their boundary layer relative humidities...and have based forecast
off of what they showed. The best location for fog and low clouds
will be down the Okanogan Valley into the Waterville Plateau and
into the Basin/Moses Lake area. Patchy fog at times will extend
into the northern Valleys/Spokane area and down towards Ritzville.
Models agree on a decent southeasterly gradient developing which
should keep fog out of the Palouse and up into southern Spokane
and Kootenai counties. Spent a lot of time trying to match up the
fog potential with cloud cover. Where there is areas of fog have
cloudy conditions. The patchy fog is a little more difficult, but
think there will be sun breaks in the afternoon and early evening
at least. The mountains will not see the fog, but there will be
thin cirrus passing from time to time. Have spread the the
possible record high temperature headline into all of the ID
Panhandle for Monday. Temperatures will be at least 10 degrees
above average for most of eastern WA and north ID. The exception
to this will be across the valleys and lower elevations of central
WA where the fog will likely persist and temps will not fluctuate
greatly. Tuesday the ridge flattens as the next wave moves onto
the west coast. The lower level flow switches to a more south or
southwesterly direction. Light rain will move onto the crest of
the Cascades in the afternoon. /Nisbet

Tuesday night through Saturday...Odds are good that the the mild
weather that begins next week will continue through most of the
period as strong ridge shows little sign of relenting. Really the
only chance of seeing weather of consequence during the period
will revolve around a rapidly moving and weakening shortwave
trough on Tuesday night. Model agreement is quite good that the
shortwave will cross through the ridge and hit the Cascades in the
evening and into the Idaho Panhandle by Wednesday morning. While
the models are showing some light precipitation with this
feature...the argument is not convincing as much of the moisture
gets intercepted by the Cascades and mid-level westerly flow. We
will back off on pops just a little bit and keep most of the
precipitation chances reserved for locations near the Cascade
Crest and the Panhandle. Amounts should be fairly light and most
of the precipitation will fall as rain with the mild air mass
remaining in place. Once this feature moves through the ridge will
begin to steadily rebound. Weak northwest flow could perpetuate
the shower chances in the Panhandle for another day...but its not
a great chance. The ridge begins to amplify sharply by Friday and
Saturday as a deep trough moves into the Gulf of Alaska. This
results in some downstream northwest flow which should deliver
some much cooler air into Montana. Just how far west this
transition takes place is questionable. The Canadian model shows
rather strong north-northwest flow centered over the Inland
NW...while the ECMWF and 18z GFS shows it much further to the
east. In fact it`s far enough east (central Montana) that our
weather and temperatures would change very little. If the Canadian
model is correct the 850 mb temps (around 5000 foot elevation)
will fall below -10c by early Sunday. The ECMWF keeps temps above
zero with the GFS in between. A big difference for sure. Even if
the Canadian verifies...it does not bring a significant amount of
precipitation to the area but it would fall as snow. Temperatures
will be difficult during this period as much will depend on how
resilient the fog is. If the fog persists valley temperatures will
likely remain fixed in the 30s...with nighttime lows not much
cooler. However model soundings suggest the chances for fog will
diminish as the inversions weaken with the passage of the the
Tuesday night shortwave. For consistency sake we will leave some
fog in the grids but will begin to scale back its coverage. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Stratus and fog and their associated impacts on
visibility and lower ceilings continue to be an issue. Any
improvement is expected to be short lived with the exception
being locations south of KGEG to KPUW and KLWS where low level
easterly winds off the North Idaho Panhandle Mountains will work
to inhibit reintensification of stratus/low clouds
tomorrow...otherwise elsewhere new moisture will bring a return of
low stratus/fog overnight. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  47  35  47  35  44 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  39  47  33  49  33  45 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        41  55  40  55  38  51 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       42  58  40  58  39  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       36  41  30  43  27  41 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      38  45  31  48  31  45 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        37  47  34  52  33  48 /  50  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     36  49  35  46  32  45 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      36  47  33  47  30  44 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           34  41  34  40  30  37 /  10   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 242328
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
328 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will bring valley rain and high mountain snow to
the area tonight. More fog and low clouds are expected once this
system moves out of the area overnight and high pressure returns.
Record high temperatures may be possible both Sunday and Monday. A
weak storm system will affect the area mid-week. A ridge of high
pressure will rebound late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sunday...A weak warm front will push across the region
this evening bringing some light precipitation to portions of the
Inland Northwest. Best combination of isentropic upglide and
orographic ascent will be over the eastern zones in favorable
northwest upslope flow. This impulse will move quickly southeast
tonight with precipitation ending overnight. Snow levels will be
high enough to relegate any accumulating snow to the high peaks.
The light rain this evening may act to diminish the fog/low
stratus briefly, with a return expected overnight. This system
does not have a cold front to speak of so the mild temperatures
the region experienced today will continue on Sunday. Just how
warm it will get will again depend on where the persistent fog and
stratus sets up and where breaks appear. The southeast zones
should again benefit from downsloping winds, more clearing, and
therefore should see the warmest temperatures Sunday. /Kelch

Sunday Night through Tuesday: Upper level ridge dominates into the
early work week. The main forecast challenge is the extent of the
fog and low clouds. Both the GFS and NAM agree pretty well on
their boundary layer relative humidities...and have based forecast
off of what they showed. The best location for fog and low clouds
will be down the Okanogan Valley into the Waterville Plateau and
into the Basin/Moses Lake area. Patchy fog at times will extend
into the northern Valleys/Spokane area and down towards Ritzville.
Models agree on a decent southeasterly gradient developing which
should keep fog out of the Palouse and up into southern Spokane
and Kootenai counties. Spent a lot of time trying to match up the
fog potential with cloud cover. Where there is areas of fog have
cloudy conditions. The patchy fog is a little more difficult, but
think there will be sun breaks in the afternoon and early evening
at least. The mountains will not see the fog, but there will be
thin cirrus passing from time to time. Have spread the the
possible record high temperature headline into all of the ID
Panhandle for Monday. Temperatures will be at least 10 degrees
above average for most of eastern WA and north ID. The exception
to this will be across the valleys and lower elevations of central
WA where the fog will likely persist and temps will not fluctuate
greatly. Tuesday the ridge flattens as the next wave moves onto
the west coast. The lower level flow switches to a more south or
southwesterly direction. Light rain will move onto the crest of
the Cascades in the afternoon. /Nisbet

Tuesday night through Saturday...Odds are good that the the mild
weather that begins next week will continue through most of the
period as strong ridge shows little sign of relenting. Really the
only chance of seeing weather of consequence during the period
will revolve around a rapidly moving and weakening shortwave
trough on Tuesday night. Model agreement is quite good that the
shortwave will cross through the ridge and hit the Cascades in the
evening and into the Idaho Panhandle by Wednesday morning. While
the models are showing some light precipitation with this
feature...the argument is not convincing as much of the moisture
gets intercepted by the Cascades and mid-level westerly flow. We
will back off on pops just a little bit and keep most of the
precipitation chances reserved for locations near the Cascade
Crest and the Panhandle. Amounts should be fairly light and most
of the precipitation will fall as rain with the mild air mass
remaining in place. Once this feature moves through the ridge will
begin to steadily rebound. Weak northwest flow could perpetuate
the shower chances in the Panhandle for another day...but its not
a great chance. The ridge begins to amplify sharply by Friday and
Saturday as a deep trough moves into the Gulf of Alaska. This
results in some downstream northwest flow which should deliver
some much cooler air into Montana. Just how far west this
transition takes place is questionable. The Canadian model shows
rather strong north-northwest flow centered over the Inland
NW...while the ECMWF and 18z GFS shows it much further to the
east. In fact it`s far enough east (central Montana) that our
weather and temperatures would change very little. If the Canadian
model is correct the 850 mb temps (around 5000 foot elevation)
will fall below -10c by early Sunday. The ECMWF keeps temps above
zero with the GFS in between. A big difference for sure. Even if
the Canadian verifies...it does not bring a significant amount of
precipitation to the area but it would fall as snow. Temperatures
will be difficult during this period as much will depend on how
resilient the fog is. If the fog persists valley temperatures will
likely remain fixed in the 30s...with nighttime lows not much
cooler. However model soundings suggest the chances for fog will
diminish as the inversions weaken with the passage of the the
Tuesday night shortwave. For consistency sake we will leave some
fog in the grids but will begin to scale back its coverage. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Stratus and fog and their associated impacts on
visibility and lower ceilings continue to be an issue. Any
improvement is expected to be short lived with the exception
being locations south of KGEG to KPUW and KLWS where low level
easterly winds off the North Idaho Panhandle Mountains will work
to inhibit reintensification of stratus/low clouds
tomorrow...otherwise elsewhere new moisture will bring a return of
low stratus/fog overnight. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  47  35  47  35  44 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  39  47  33  49  33  45 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        41  55  40  55  38  51 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       42  58  40  58  39  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       36  41  30  43  27  41 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      38  45  31  48  31  45 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        37  47  34  52  33  48 /  50  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     36  49  35  46  32  45 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      36  47  33  47  30  44 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           34  41  34  40  30  37 /  10   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&





000
FXUS66 KSEW 242302
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
CASCADES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE
NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD FOR LATE
JANUARY. WEAK FRONTS WILL REACH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
ABOUT THURSDAY GIVING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE WARM FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA
LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE RATHER WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS IN
PLACE...SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE FAR NORTHERN INTERIOR. RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING WILL BE LIMITED
TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...THEN SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY FROM THE SOUTH.

DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA ARE WELL INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON...SO
ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY GIVE AREAS OF FOG -PARTICULARLY
IN THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP BELOW
50 DEGREES.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY SCOUR OUT MIDDAY SUNDAY
LEAVING JUST SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. SUBSIDENCE WILL
RAISE TEMPERATURES AT 2000 FT TO 16C-17C PER THE 18Z NAM12 LATE SUN
AFTERNOON...AND IT SHOULD REACH 60 DEGREES IN MANY PLACES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON-BREAKING DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR JAN 25. WITH LESS
CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO GIVE MORE
FOG SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE TEMPERATURE ON MONDAY -IF
THE FOG LIFTS EARLY ENOUGH- WILL REACH 60 AGAIN...BREAKING THE
RECORD. BUT TEMPERATURE FORECASTING THIS TIME OF YEAR WHEN
INVERSIONS DOMINATE IS TRICKY.

THE LATEST GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS ARE FASTER WITH A WEAK FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW BRINGING IT INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HENCE RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS
PERIOD WERE INCREASED. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN 10 DEGREES OR
MORE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THROUGH TUESDAY. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH
REMAINING OVER THE AREA ON WED THAT IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAKENING
FRONT THU OR THU EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PERIODS THAT
WILL BE DRY IN THE TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT PERIOD...BUT MODEL
CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY WITH THESE VERY WEAK FEATURES IS NOT TOO
HIGH AT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...FORECASTS WILL INDICATE CLOUDS AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S.

THE EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RIDGING INCREASING ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE NORTHWEST THU NIGHT OR FRI AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS JUST OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH OVER
SOUTHEASTERN BC...THE LOWER LEVEL AIR MASS...WHILE STILL MILD FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS WARM AS THE ONE WE ARE
SEEING AT THIS TIME. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2.5 INCHES FELL
OVERNIGHT IN THE CASCADE RIVER BASINS OF KING AND SOUTH SNOHOMISH
COUNTIES. THIS WAS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON THE SNOQUALMIE
RIVER AT THE FALLS. THE SNOQUALMIE AT THE FALLS IS NOW RECEDING.
MINOR FLOODING REMAINS LIKELY ON THE SNOQUALMIE RIVER AT CARNATION
THIS EVENING...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE RIVER WILL ONLY TOUCH THE
FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME.

HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT RAIN HAS COME TO AN END AND DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO RECEDE NICELY. WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HYDROLOGICALLY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE MODERATE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL EASE TONIGHT AND BE LIGHT OFFSHORE SUNDAY. THE
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND STABLE TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY BUT AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING FOG WILL FORM.

CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000 FOOT RANGE WITH LOCAL
CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET. THERE IS IMPROVEMENT IN SOUTHERN AREAS AS
A CLEARING TREND GETS UNDER WAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. SOME HOURS OF
VFR SEEM LIKELY THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. AREAS
OF FOG/STRATUS WILL FORM OVERNIGHT ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR. ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ALL AREAS.

KSEA...DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. SOUTHERLY WIND 6-10 KT BECOMING
LIGHT OVERNIGHT. IFR FOG/STRATUS IS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS
10Z-15Z. CHB

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING LIGHT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WIND CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH COAST TONIGHT
ALONG WITH ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE SOUTH COAST.
HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.

A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MOST AREAS AT TIMES FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLY
WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE STRAIT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BURKE

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SNOQUALMIE
      RIVER IN KING AND SNOHOMISH COUNTIES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND NORTHERN 4 COASTAL ZONES.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAZARDOUS SEAS SOUTHERN 2 COASTAL
      ZONES.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS GRAYS HARBOR
      BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




















000
FXUS66 KSEW 242302
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
CASCADES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE
NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD FOR LATE
JANUARY. WEAK FRONTS WILL REACH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
ABOUT THURSDAY GIVING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE WARM FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA
LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE RATHER WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS IN
PLACE...SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE FAR NORTHERN INTERIOR. RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING WILL BE LIMITED
TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...THEN SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY FROM THE SOUTH.

DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA ARE WELL INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON...SO
ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY GIVE AREAS OF FOG -PARTICULARLY
IN THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP BELOW
50 DEGREES.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY SCOUR OUT MIDDAY SUNDAY
LEAVING JUST SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. SUBSIDENCE WILL
RAISE TEMPERATURES AT 2000 FT TO 16C-17C PER THE 18Z NAM12 LATE SUN
AFTERNOON...AND IT SHOULD REACH 60 DEGREES IN MANY PLACES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON-BREAKING DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR JAN 25. WITH LESS
CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO GIVE MORE
FOG SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE TEMPERATURE ON MONDAY -IF
THE FOG LIFTS EARLY ENOUGH- WILL REACH 60 AGAIN...BREAKING THE
RECORD. BUT TEMPERATURE FORECASTING THIS TIME OF YEAR WHEN
INVERSIONS DOMINATE IS TRICKY.

THE LATEST GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS ARE FASTER WITH A WEAK FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW BRINGING IT INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HENCE RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS
PERIOD WERE INCREASED. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN 10 DEGREES OR
MORE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THROUGH TUESDAY. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH
REMAINING OVER THE AREA ON WED THAT IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAKENING
FRONT THU OR THU EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PERIODS THAT
WILL BE DRY IN THE TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT PERIOD...BUT MODEL
CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY WITH THESE VERY WEAK FEATURES IS NOT TOO
HIGH AT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...FORECASTS WILL INDICATE CLOUDS AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S.

THE EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RIDGING INCREASING ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE NORTHWEST THU NIGHT OR FRI AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS JUST OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH OVER
SOUTHEASTERN BC...THE LOWER LEVEL AIR MASS...WHILE STILL MILD FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS WARM AS THE ONE WE ARE
SEEING AT THIS TIME. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2.5 INCHES FELL
OVERNIGHT IN THE CASCADE RIVER BASINS OF KING AND SOUTH SNOHOMISH
COUNTIES. THIS WAS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON THE SNOQUALMIE
RIVER AT THE FALLS. THE SNOQUALMIE AT THE FALLS IS NOW RECEDING.
MINOR FLOODING REMAINS LIKELY ON THE SNOQUALMIE RIVER AT CARNATION
THIS EVENING...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE RIVER WILL ONLY TOUCH THE
FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME.

HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT RAIN HAS COME TO AN END AND DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO RECEDE NICELY. WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HYDROLOGICALLY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE MODERATE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL EASE TONIGHT AND BE LIGHT OFFSHORE SUNDAY. THE
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND STABLE TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY BUT AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING FOG WILL FORM.

CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000 FOOT RANGE WITH LOCAL
CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET. THERE IS IMPROVEMENT IN SOUTHERN AREAS AS
A CLEARING TREND GETS UNDER WAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. SOME HOURS OF
VFR SEEM LIKELY THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. AREAS
OF FOG/STRATUS WILL FORM OVERNIGHT ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR. ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ALL AREAS.

KSEA...DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. SOUTHERLY WIND 6-10 KT BECOMING
LIGHT OVERNIGHT. IFR FOG/STRATUS IS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS
10Z-15Z. CHB

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING LIGHT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WIND CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH COAST TONIGHT
ALONG WITH ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE SOUTH COAST.
HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.

A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MOST AREAS AT TIMES FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLY
WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE STRAIT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BURKE

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SNOQUALMIE
      RIVER IN KING AND SNOHOMISH COUNTIES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND NORTHERN 4 COASTAL ZONES.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAZARDOUS SEAS SOUTHERN 2 COASTAL
      ZONES.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS GRAYS HARBOR
      BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





















000
FXUS66 KOTX 242243
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
243 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will bring valley rain and high mountain snow to
the area tonight. More fog and low clouds are expected once this
system moves out of the area overnight and high pressure returns.
Record high temperatures may be possible both Sunday and Monday. A
weak storm system will affect the area mid-week. A ridge of high
pressure will rebound late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sunday...A weak warm front will push across the region
this evening bringing some light precipitation to portions of the
Inland Northwest. Best combination of isentropic upglide and
orographic ascent will be over the eastern zones in favorable
northwest upslope flow. This impulse will move quickly southeast
tonight with precipitation ending overnight. Snow levels will be
high enough to relegate any accumulating snow to the high peaks.
The light rain this evening may act to diminish the fog/low
stratus briefly, with a return expected overnight. This system
does not have a cold front to speak of so the mild temperatures
the region experienced today will continue on Sunday. Just how
warm it will get will again depend on where the persistent fog and
stratus sets up and where breaks appear. The southeast zones
should again benefit from downsloping winds, more clearing, and
therefore should see the warmest temperatures Sunday. /Kelch

Sunday Night through Tuesday: Upper level ridge dominates into the
early work week. The main forecast challenge is the extent of the
fog and low clouds. Both the GFS and NAM agree pretty well on
their boundary layer relative humidities...and have based forecast
off of what they showed. The best location for fog and low clouds
will be down the Okanogan Valley into the Waterville Plateau and
into the Basin/Moses Lake area. Patchy fog at times will extend
into the northern Valleys/Spokane area and down towards Ritzville.
Models agree on a decent southeasterly gradient developing which
should keep fog out of the Palouse and up into southern Spokane
and Kootenai counties. Spent a lot of time trying to match up the
fog potential with cloud cover. Where there is areas of fog have
cloudy conditions. The patchy fog is a little more difficult, but
think there will be sun breaks in the afternoon and early evening
at least. The mountains will not see the fog, but there will be
thin cirrus passing from time to time. Have spread the the
possible record high temperature headline into all of the ID
Panhandle for Monday. Temperatures will be at least 10 degrees
above average for most of eastern WA and north ID. The exception
to this will be across the valleys and lower elevations of central
WA where the fog will likely persist and temps will not fluctuate
greatly. Tuesday the ridge flattens as the next wave moves onto
the west coast. The lower level flow switches to a more south or
southwesterly direction. Light rain will move onto the crest of
the Cascades in the afternoon. /Nisbet

Tuesday night through Saturday...Odds are good that the the mild
weather that begins next week will continue through most of the
period as strong ridge shows little sign of relenting. Really the
only chance of seeing weather of consequence during the period
will revolve around a rapidly moving and weakening shortwave
trough on Tuesday night. Model agreement is quite good that the
shortwave will cross through the ridge and hit the Cascades in the
evening and into the Idaho Panhandle by Wednesday morning. While
the models are showing some light precipitation with this
feature...the argument is not convincing as much of the moisture
gets intercepted by the Cascades and mid-level westerly flow. We
will back off on pops just a little bit and keep most of the
precipitation chances reserved for locations near the Cascade
Crest and the Panhandle. Amounts should be fairly light and most
of the precipitation will fall as rain with the mild air mass
remaining in place. Once this feature moves through the ridge will
begin to steadily rebound. Weak northwest flow could perpetuate
the shower chances in the Panhandle for another day...but its not
a great chance. The ridge begins to amplify sharply by Friday and
Saturday as a deep trough moves into the Gulf of Alaska. This
results in some downstream northwest flow which should deliver
some much cooler air into Montana. Just how far west this
transition takes place is questionable. The Canadian model shows
rather strong north-northwest flow centered over the Inland
NW...while the ECMWF and 18z GFS shows it much further to the
east. In fact it`s far enough east (central Montana) that our
weather and temperatures would change very little. If the Canadian
model is correct the 850 mb temps (around 5000 foot elevation)
will fall below -10c by early Sunday. The ECMWF keeps temps above
zero with the GFS in between. A big difference for sure. Even if
the Canadian verifies...it does not bring a significant amount of
precipitation to the area but it would fall as snow. Temperatures
will be difficult during this period as much will depend on how
resilient the fog is. If the fog persists valley temperatures will
likely remain fixed in the 30s...with nighttime lows not much
cooler. However model soundings suggest the chances for fog will
diminish as the inversions weaken with the passage of the the
Tuesday night shortwave. For consistency sake we will leave some
fog in the grids but will begin to scale back its coverage. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Stratus and fog continue to be the main threat for most
TAF sites. IFR ceilings at KMWH and KEAT and fog in the KGEG-KCOE
area should improve by midday as light rain tries to scour out
the soup. KPUW and KLWS should have enough downsloping flow from
the east to remain VFR/MVFR through this afternoon. New moisture
will bring a return of low stratus/fog overnight. /EK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  47  35  47  35  44 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  39  47  33  49  33  45 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        41  55  40  55  38  51 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       42  58  40  58  39  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       36  41  30  43  27  41 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      38  45  31  48  31  45 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        37  47  34  52  33  48 /  50  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     36  49  35  46  32  45 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      36  47  33  47  30  44 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           34  41  34  40  30  37 /  10   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 242243
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
243 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will bring valley rain and high mountain snow to
the area tonight. More fog and low clouds are expected once this
system moves out of the area overnight and high pressure returns.
Record high temperatures may be possible both Sunday and Monday. A
weak storm system will affect the area mid-week. A ridge of high
pressure will rebound late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sunday...A weak warm front will push across the region
this evening bringing some light precipitation to portions of the
Inland Northwest. Best combination of isentropic upglide and
orographic ascent will be over the eastern zones in favorable
northwest upslope flow. This impulse will move quickly southeast
tonight with precipitation ending overnight. Snow levels will be
high enough to relegate any accumulating snow to the high peaks.
The light rain this evening may act to diminish the fog/low
stratus briefly, with a return expected overnight. This system
does not have a cold front to speak of so the mild temperatures
the region experienced today will continue on Sunday. Just how
warm it will get will again depend on where the persistent fog and
stratus sets up and where breaks appear. The southeast zones
should again benefit from downsloping winds, more clearing, and
therefore should see the warmest temperatures Sunday. /Kelch

Sunday Night through Tuesday: Upper level ridge dominates into the
early work week. The main forecast challenge is the extent of the
fog and low clouds. Both the GFS and NAM agree pretty well on
their boundary layer relative humidities...and have based forecast
off of what they showed. The best location for fog and low clouds
will be down the Okanogan Valley into the Waterville Plateau and
into the Basin/Moses Lake area. Patchy fog at times will extend
into the northern Valleys/Spokane area and down towards Ritzville.
Models agree on a decent southeasterly gradient developing which
should keep fog out of the Palouse and up into southern Spokane
and Kootenai counties. Spent a lot of time trying to match up the
fog potential with cloud cover. Where there is areas of fog have
cloudy conditions. The patchy fog is a little more difficult, but
think there will be sun breaks in the afternoon and early evening
at least. The mountains will not see the fog, but there will be
thin cirrus passing from time to time. Have spread the the
possible record high temperature headline into all of the ID
Panhandle for Monday. Temperatures will be at least 10 degrees
above average for most of eastern WA and north ID. The exception
to this will be across the valleys and lower elevations of central
WA where the fog will likely persist and temps will not fluctuate
greatly. Tuesday the ridge flattens as the next wave moves onto
the west coast. The lower level flow switches to a more south or
southwesterly direction. Light rain will move onto the crest of
the Cascades in the afternoon. /Nisbet

Tuesday night through Saturday...Odds are good that the the mild
weather that begins next week will continue through most of the
period as strong ridge shows little sign of relenting. Really the
only chance of seeing weather of consequence during the period
will revolve around a rapidly moving and weakening shortwave
trough on Tuesday night. Model agreement is quite good that the
shortwave will cross through the ridge and hit the Cascades in the
evening and into the Idaho Panhandle by Wednesday morning. While
the models are showing some light precipitation with this
feature...the argument is not convincing as much of the moisture
gets intercepted by the Cascades and mid-level westerly flow. We
will back off on pops just a little bit and keep most of the
precipitation chances reserved for locations near the Cascade
Crest and the Panhandle. Amounts should be fairly light and most
of the precipitation will fall as rain with the mild air mass
remaining in place. Once this feature moves through the ridge will
begin to steadily rebound. Weak northwest flow could perpetuate
the shower chances in the Panhandle for another day...but its not
a great chance. The ridge begins to amplify sharply by Friday and
Saturday as a deep trough moves into the Gulf of Alaska. This
results in some downstream northwest flow which should deliver
some much cooler air into Montana. Just how far west this
transition takes place is questionable. The Canadian model shows
rather strong north-northwest flow centered over the Inland
NW...while the ECMWF and 18z GFS shows it much further to the
east. In fact it`s far enough east (central Montana) that our
weather and temperatures would change very little. If the Canadian
model is correct the 850 mb temps (around 5000 foot elevation)
will fall below -10c by early Sunday. The ECMWF keeps temps above
zero with the GFS in between. A big difference for sure. Even if
the Canadian verifies...it does not bring a significant amount of
precipitation to the area but it would fall as snow. Temperatures
will be difficult during this period as much will depend on how
resilient the fog is. If the fog persists valley temperatures will
likely remain fixed in the 30s...with nighttime lows not much
cooler. However model soundings suggest the chances for fog will
diminish as the inversions weaken with the passage of the the
Tuesday night shortwave. For consistency sake we will leave some
fog in the grids but will begin to scale back its coverage. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Stratus and fog continue to be the main threat for most
TAF sites. IFR ceilings at KMWH and KEAT and fog in the KGEG-KCOE
area should improve by midday as light rain tries to scour out
the soup. KPUW and KLWS should have enough downsloping flow from
the east to remain VFR/MVFR through this afternoon. New moisture
will bring a return of low stratus/fog overnight. /EK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        39  47  35  47  35  44 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  39  47  33  49  33  45 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        41  55  40  55  38  51 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       42  58  40  58  39  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       36  41  30  43  27  41 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      38  45  31  48  31  45 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        37  47  34  52  33  48 /  50  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     36  49  35  46  32  45 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      36  47  33  47  30  44 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           34  41  34  40  30  37 /  10   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&





000
FXUS66 KPQR 242241
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
240 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...TODAY DEFINITELY DOES NOT
SEEM LIKE LATE JANUARY...MORE LIKE MID-APRIL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH MODEL 500 MB HEIGHT OVERLAYS SHOW A 590 DM HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR
35N 130W. THE MODEL 582 DM CONTOUR WAS AS FAR N AS KTMK. SOME
LOCATIONS ALREADY THREATENING RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY DUE TO
MINIMAL MORNING INVERSIONS. KPDX WAS 60 DEG AT 21Z...JUST ONE OFF THE
RECORD FOR THE DATE. KTTD WAS 62 DEG AT 21Z...ALREADY TOPPING THE
RECORD OF 61 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1984.

THE 12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE ANY REMAINING ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON TO BE CONFINED TO THE SW WA ZONES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AND SUN. VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH BETTER RADIATIVE CONDITIONS FOR FOG AND
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER INVERSIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUN
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. INLAND VALLEY MAX TEMP FORECASTS WILL BECOME MORE
CHALLENGING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST NAM HINTS AT A
LITTLE LIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE TONIGHT...
BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO STIR THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALL THAT MUCH.

THE STRONG H5 RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE +15C TO +18C 850 TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION SUN. THE LATEST NAEFS OUTPUT STILL INDICATES MAX 850 MB TEMP
PERCENTILES 06Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE. IF IT WERE LATE MAY OR JUNE
INLAND MAX TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE PUSHING 90 DEG. OBVIOUSLY...SUN
ANGLE IS A MAJOR FACTOR. EXPECT AREAS N OF KUAO TO HAVE A HIGHER
CHANCE OF CLEARING SUN AND MON. AREAS S OF KUAO LIKELY TO HAVE MORE
PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS... ESPECIALLY MON IF A LIGHT NLY
SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. KAST AND KONP LIKELY TO BREAK RECORD HIGH
TEMPS SUN. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A FEW JANUARY DAYS WITH 850 MB TEMPS
AT OR ABOVE 17C SINCE THE 1950S WHEN UPPER AIR RECORDS ARE FIRST
AVAILABLE. SIMILARLY...LOW TEMPS SUN AND MON MORNING EXPECTED TO BE
MILD ABOVE THE INVERSION IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS WELL E OF THE REGION MON WITH H8 TEMPS COOLING TO 10 TO 12C.

GFS...NAM AND ECMWF TRY TO BRING SOME ENERGY NWD THROUGH NEVADA MON
NIGHT FROM A TROUGH SLIDING INTO CENTRAL AND SRN CALIFORNIA.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE
COAST AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME. MODELS HOLD THE NEVADA MOISTURE OVER
EXTREME SRN OREGON TUE WHILE THE WEAKENING PAC FRONT FALLS APART AS
IT TRIES TO MOVE INLAND. EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
OVER SW WA AND COASTAL AREAS OF NW OREGON TUE. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY BRINGING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT LEAST...AS THE FRONT
DRAGS AND LINGERS. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING BY
THURSDAY...BRINGING THE RETURN OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND
BENIGN CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS.
/27
&&


.AVIATION...INLAND SITES HAVE CLEARED TO VFR...WHILE STRATUS OVER
THE COAST HAS KEPT MARINE FOG OVER KAST AND KONP. THIS HAS KEPT
CIGS AND VIS OVER THE COAST MVFR/IFR. THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE UNTIL
EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP INITIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL
COAST THIS EVENING...THEN ALONG THE NORTH COAST EARLY SUNDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE FOG/LOW STRATUS. WITH FOG
CLEARED THESE SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE AT KAST THAT A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND COULD PUSH
SOME FOG INTO THE TERMINAL FROM YOUNGS BAY...WHICH COULD DROP CIGS
AND VIS TO IFR...BUT THIS IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF DUE TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE. INLAND SITES WILL STAY VFR THROUGH TODAY...BUT CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
FOG LATER TONIGHT WHICH COULD BE DENSE ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH.
THIS WILL BRING CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO IFR/LIFR EARLY SUNDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL HELP TO MIX
OUT THIS FOG BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON UP NORTH...BUT
KEUG AND POSSIBLY KSLE AS WELL MIGHT ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WILL START TO
DETERIORATE LATE EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
FOG TO START TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING...LOWERING VIS TO
MVFR BY 10Z WITH A GOOD CHANCE CIGS AND VIS COULD LOWER TO IFR BY
12Z. WITH FOG OVER THE AREA...CIGS AND VIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR
UNTIL AROUND 15Z WHEN LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS START TO DEVELOP
HELPING TO LIFT CIGS AND VIS TO MVFR BY 18Z...AND IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 20-21Z. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...WINDS CURRENTLY ARE AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS ACROSS THE
WATERS AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE WATERS. A SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO OUR
NORTH WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH COULD
POSSIBLY BRING WINDS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. AS OF NOW
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH AS MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT ON HOW
STRONG THE WINDS WILL GET OVER THE WATERS. AFTER TUESDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

SEAS AROUND 10 TO 12 FT CURRENTLY WILL FALL BELOW 10 FT LATER
THIS EVENING. NORTHERN WATERS COULD HANG ON TO SEAS ABOVE 10 FT A
LITTLE LONGER THAN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS SHOULD FALL TO 7 TO
9 FT LATER TONIGHT...BUT THIS BREAK MAY BE BRIEF AS MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER 10 FT SWELL MOVING IN MID-MORNING SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BRING
SEAS RIGHT BACK UP TO 10 TO 11 FT. DID NOT ISSUE SMALL CRAFT JUST
YET...AS I WOULD LIKE TO SEE SEAS GET A BIT HIGHER AT BUOY 005 TO
HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SWELL ACTUALLY WILL BE 10 FT WHEN
IT REACHES OUR WATERS. WILL LEAVE THIS DECISION TO THE EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT FORECASTERS. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 PM
     PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 242241
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
240 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...TODAY DEFINITELY DOES NOT
SEEM LIKE LATE JANUARY...MORE LIKE MID-APRIL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH MODEL 500 MB HEIGHT OVERLAYS SHOW A 590 DM HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR
35N 130W. THE MODEL 582 DM CONTOUR WAS AS FAR N AS KTMK. SOME
LOCATIONS ALREADY THREATENING RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY DUE TO
MINIMAL MORNING INVERSIONS. KPDX WAS 60 DEG AT 21Z...JUST ONE OFF THE
RECORD FOR THE DATE. KTTD WAS 62 DEG AT 21Z...ALREADY TOPPING THE
RECORD OF 61 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1984.

THE 12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE ANY REMAINING ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON TO BE CONFINED TO THE SW WA ZONES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AND SUN. VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH BETTER RADIATIVE CONDITIONS FOR FOG AND
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER INVERSIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUN
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. INLAND VALLEY MAX TEMP FORECASTS WILL BECOME MORE
CHALLENGING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST NAM HINTS AT A
LITTLE LIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE TONIGHT...
BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO STIR THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALL THAT MUCH.

THE STRONG H5 RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE +15C TO +18C 850 TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION SUN. THE LATEST NAEFS OUTPUT STILL INDICATES MAX 850 MB TEMP
PERCENTILES 06Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE. IF IT WERE LATE MAY OR JUNE
INLAND MAX TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE PUSHING 90 DEG. OBVIOUSLY...SUN
ANGLE IS A MAJOR FACTOR. EXPECT AREAS N OF KUAO TO HAVE A HIGHER
CHANCE OF CLEARING SUN AND MON. AREAS S OF KUAO LIKELY TO HAVE MORE
PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS... ESPECIALLY MON IF A LIGHT NLY
SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. KAST AND KONP LIKELY TO BREAK RECORD HIGH
TEMPS SUN. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A FEW JANUARY DAYS WITH 850 MB TEMPS
AT OR ABOVE 17C SINCE THE 1950S WHEN UPPER AIR RECORDS ARE FIRST
AVAILABLE. SIMILARLY...LOW TEMPS SUN AND MON MORNING EXPECTED TO BE
MILD ABOVE THE INVERSION IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS WELL E OF THE REGION MON WITH H8 TEMPS COOLING TO 10 TO 12C.

GFS...NAM AND ECMWF TRY TO BRING SOME ENERGY NWD THROUGH NEVADA MON
NIGHT FROM A TROUGH SLIDING INTO CENTRAL AND SRN CALIFORNIA.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE
COAST AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME. MODELS HOLD THE NEVADA MOISTURE OVER
EXTREME SRN OREGON TUE WHILE THE WEAKENING PAC FRONT FALLS APART AS
IT TRIES TO MOVE INLAND. EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
OVER SW WA AND COASTAL AREAS OF NW OREGON TUE. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY BRINGING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT LEAST...AS THE FRONT
DRAGS AND LINGERS. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING BY
THURSDAY...BRINGING THE RETURN OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND
BENIGN CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS.
/27
&&


.AVIATION...INLAND SITES HAVE CLEARED TO VFR...WHILE STRATUS OVER
THE COAST HAS KEPT MARINE FOG OVER KAST AND KONP. THIS HAS KEPT
CIGS AND VIS OVER THE COAST MVFR/IFR. THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE UNTIL
EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP INITIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL
COAST THIS EVENING...THEN ALONG THE NORTH COAST EARLY SUNDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE FOG/LOW STRATUS. WITH FOG
CLEARED THESE SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE AT KAST THAT A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND COULD PUSH
SOME FOG INTO THE TERMINAL FROM YOUNGS BAY...WHICH COULD DROP CIGS
AND VIS TO IFR...BUT THIS IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF DUE TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE. INLAND SITES WILL STAY VFR THROUGH TODAY...BUT CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
FOG LATER TONIGHT WHICH COULD BE DENSE ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH.
THIS WILL BRING CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO IFR/LIFR EARLY SUNDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL HELP TO MIX
OUT THIS FOG BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON UP NORTH...BUT
KEUG AND POSSIBLY KSLE AS WELL MIGHT ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WILL START TO
DETERIORATE LATE EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
FOG TO START TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING...LOWERING VIS TO
MVFR BY 10Z WITH A GOOD CHANCE CIGS AND VIS COULD LOWER TO IFR BY
12Z. WITH FOG OVER THE AREA...CIGS AND VIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR
UNTIL AROUND 15Z WHEN LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS START TO DEVELOP
HELPING TO LIFT CIGS AND VIS TO MVFR BY 18Z...AND IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 20-21Z. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...WINDS CURRENTLY ARE AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS ACROSS THE
WATERS AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE WATERS. A SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO OUR
NORTH WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH COULD
POSSIBLY BRING WINDS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. AS OF NOW
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH AS MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT ON HOW
STRONG THE WINDS WILL GET OVER THE WATERS. AFTER TUESDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

SEAS AROUND 10 TO 12 FT CURRENTLY WILL FALL BELOW 10 FT LATER
THIS EVENING. NORTHERN WATERS COULD HANG ON TO SEAS ABOVE 10 FT A
LITTLE LONGER THAN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS SHOULD FALL TO 7 TO
9 FT LATER TONIGHT...BUT THIS BREAK MAY BE BRIEF AS MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER 10 FT SWELL MOVING IN MID-MORNING SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BRING
SEAS RIGHT BACK UP TO 10 TO 11 FT. DID NOT ISSUE SMALL CRAFT JUST
YET...AS I WOULD LIKE TO SEE SEAS GET A BIT HIGHER AT BUOY 005 TO
HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SWELL ACTUALLY WILL BE 10 FT WHEN
IT REACHES OUR WATERS. WILL LEAVE THIS DECISION TO THE EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT FORECASTERS. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 PM
     PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 242241
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
240 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...TODAY DEFINITELY DOES NOT
SEEM LIKE LATE JANUARY...MORE LIKE MID-APRIL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH MODEL 500 MB HEIGHT OVERLAYS SHOW A 590 DM HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR
35N 130W. THE MODEL 582 DM CONTOUR WAS AS FAR N AS KTMK. SOME
LOCATIONS ALREADY THREATENING RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY DUE TO
MINIMAL MORNING INVERSIONS. KPDX WAS 60 DEG AT 21Z...JUST ONE OFF THE
RECORD FOR THE DATE. KTTD WAS 62 DEG AT 21Z...ALREADY TOPPING THE
RECORD OF 61 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1984.

THE 12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE ANY REMAINING ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON TO BE CONFINED TO THE SW WA ZONES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AND SUN. VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH BETTER RADIATIVE CONDITIONS FOR FOG AND
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER INVERSIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUN
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. INLAND VALLEY MAX TEMP FORECASTS WILL BECOME MORE
CHALLENGING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST NAM HINTS AT A
LITTLE LIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE TONIGHT...
BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO STIR THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALL THAT MUCH.

THE STRONG H5 RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE +15C TO +18C 850 TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION SUN. THE LATEST NAEFS OUTPUT STILL INDICATES MAX 850 MB TEMP
PERCENTILES 06Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE. IF IT WERE LATE MAY OR JUNE
INLAND MAX TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE PUSHING 90 DEG. OBVIOUSLY...SUN
ANGLE IS A MAJOR FACTOR. EXPECT AREAS N OF KUAO TO HAVE A HIGHER
CHANCE OF CLEARING SUN AND MON. AREAS S OF KUAO LIKELY TO HAVE MORE
PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS... ESPECIALLY MON IF A LIGHT NLY
SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. KAST AND KONP LIKELY TO BREAK RECORD HIGH
TEMPS SUN. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A FEW JANUARY DAYS WITH 850 MB TEMPS
AT OR ABOVE 17C SINCE THE 1950S WHEN UPPER AIR RECORDS ARE FIRST
AVAILABLE. SIMILARLY...LOW TEMPS SUN AND MON MORNING EXPECTED TO BE
MILD ABOVE THE INVERSION IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS WELL E OF THE REGION MON WITH H8 TEMPS COOLING TO 10 TO 12C.

GFS...NAM AND ECMWF TRY TO BRING SOME ENERGY NWD THROUGH NEVADA MON
NIGHT FROM A TROUGH SLIDING INTO CENTRAL AND SRN CALIFORNIA.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE
COAST AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME. MODELS HOLD THE NEVADA MOISTURE OVER
EXTREME SRN OREGON TUE WHILE THE WEAKENING PAC FRONT FALLS APART AS
IT TRIES TO MOVE INLAND. EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
OVER SW WA AND COASTAL AREAS OF NW OREGON TUE. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY BRINGING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT LEAST...AS THE FRONT
DRAGS AND LINGERS. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING BY
THURSDAY...BRINGING THE RETURN OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND
BENIGN CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS.
/27
&&


.AVIATION...INLAND SITES HAVE CLEARED TO VFR...WHILE STRATUS OVER
THE COAST HAS KEPT MARINE FOG OVER KAST AND KONP. THIS HAS KEPT
CIGS AND VIS OVER THE COAST MVFR/IFR. THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE UNTIL
EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP INITIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL
COAST THIS EVENING...THEN ALONG THE NORTH COAST EARLY SUNDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE FOG/LOW STRATUS. WITH FOG
CLEARED THESE SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE AT KAST THAT A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND COULD PUSH
SOME FOG INTO THE TERMINAL FROM YOUNGS BAY...WHICH COULD DROP CIGS
AND VIS TO IFR...BUT THIS IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF DUE TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE. INLAND SITES WILL STAY VFR THROUGH TODAY...BUT CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
FOG LATER TONIGHT WHICH COULD BE DENSE ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH.
THIS WILL BRING CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO IFR/LIFR EARLY SUNDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL HELP TO MIX
OUT THIS FOG BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON UP NORTH...BUT
KEUG AND POSSIBLY KSLE AS WELL MIGHT ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WILL START TO
DETERIORATE LATE EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
FOG TO START TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING...LOWERING VIS TO
MVFR BY 10Z WITH A GOOD CHANCE CIGS AND VIS COULD LOWER TO IFR BY
12Z. WITH FOG OVER THE AREA...CIGS AND VIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR
UNTIL AROUND 15Z WHEN LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS START TO DEVELOP
HELPING TO LIFT CIGS AND VIS TO MVFR BY 18Z...AND IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 20-21Z. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...WINDS CURRENTLY ARE AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS ACROSS THE
WATERS AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE WATERS. A SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO OUR
NORTH WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH COULD
POSSIBLY BRING WINDS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. AS OF NOW
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH AS MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT ON HOW
STRONG THE WINDS WILL GET OVER THE WATERS. AFTER TUESDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

SEAS AROUND 10 TO 12 FT CURRENTLY WILL FALL BELOW 10 FT LATER
THIS EVENING. NORTHERN WATERS COULD HANG ON TO SEAS ABOVE 10 FT A
LITTLE LONGER THAN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS SHOULD FALL TO 7 TO
9 FT LATER TONIGHT...BUT THIS BREAK MAY BE BRIEF AS MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER 10 FT SWELL MOVING IN MID-MORNING SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BRING
SEAS RIGHT BACK UP TO 10 TO 11 FT. DID NOT ISSUE SMALL CRAFT JUST
YET...AS I WOULD LIKE TO SEE SEAS GET A BIT HIGHER AT BUOY 005 TO
HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SWELL ACTUALLY WILL BE 10 FT WHEN
IT REACHES OUR WATERS. WILL LEAVE THIS DECISION TO THE EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT FORECASTERS. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 PM
     PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 242241
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
240 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...TODAY DEFINITELY DOES NOT
SEEM LIKE LATE JANUARY...MORE LIKE MID-APRIL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH MODEL 500 MB HEIGHT OVERLAYS SHOW A 590 DM HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR
35N 130W. THE MODEL 582 DM CONTOUR WAS AS FAR N AS KTMK. SOME
LOCATIONS ALREADY THREATENING RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY DUE TO
MINIMAL MORNING INVERSIONS. KPDX WAS 60 DEG AT 21Z...JUST ONE OFF THE
RECORD FOR THE DATE. KTTD WAS 62 DEG AT 21Z...ALREADY TOPPING THE
RECORD OF 61 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1984.

THE 12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE ANY REMAINING ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON TO BE CONFINED TO THE SW WA ZONES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AND SUN. VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH BETTER RADIATIVE CONDITIONS FOR FOG AND
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER INVERSIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUN
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. INLAND VALLEY MAX TEMP FORECASTS WILL BECOME MORE
CHALLENGING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST NAM HINTS AT A
LITTLE LIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE TONIGHT...
BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO STIR THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALL THAT MUCH.

THE STRONG H5 RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE +15C TO +18C 850 TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION SUN. THE LATEST NAEFS OUTPUT STILL INDICATES MAX 850 MB TEMP
PERCENTILES 06Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE. IF IT WERE LATE MAY OR JUNE
INLAND MAX TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE PUSHING 90 DEG. OBVIOUSLY...SUN
ANGLE IS A MAJOR FACTOR. EXPECT AREAS N OF KUAO TO HAVE A HIGHER
CHANCE OF CLEARING SUN AND MON. AREAS S OF KUAO LIKELY TO HAVE MORE
PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS... ESPECIALLY MON IF A LIGHT NLY
SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. KAST AND KONP LIKELY TO BREAK RECORD HIGH
TEMPS SUN. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A FEW JANUARY DAYS WITH 850 MB TEMPS
AT OR ABOVE 17C SINCE THE 1950S WHEN UPPER AIR RECORDS ARE FIRST
AVAILABLE. SIMILARLY...LOW TEMPS SUN AND MON MORNING EXPECTED TO BE
MILD ABOVE THE INVERSION IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS WELL E OF THE REGION MON WITH H8 TEMPS COOLING TO 10 TO 12C.

GFS...NAM AND ECMWF TRY TO BRING SOME ENERGY NWD THROUGH NEVADA MON
NIGHT FROM A TROUGH SLIDING INTO CENTRAL AND SRN CALIFORNIA.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE
COAST AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME. MODELS HOLD THE NEVADA MOISTURE OVER
EXTREME SRN OREGON TUE WHILE THE WEAKENING PAC FRONT FALLS APART AS
IT TRIES TO MOVE INLAND. EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
OVER SW WA AND COASTAL AREAS OF NW OREGON TUE. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY BRINGING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT LEAST...AS THE FRONT
DRAGS AND LINGERS. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING BY
THURSDAY...BRINGING THE RETURN OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND
BENIGN CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS.
/27
&&


.AVIATION...INLAND SITES HAVE CLEARED TO VFR...WHILE STRATUS OVER
THE COAST HAS KEPT MARINE FOG OVER KAST AND KONP. THIS HAS KEPT
CIGS AND VIS OVER THE COAST MVFR/IFR. THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE UNTIL
EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP INITIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL
COAST THIS EVENING...THEN ALONG THE NORTH COAST EARLY SUNDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE FOG/LOW STRATUS. WITH FOG
CLEARED THESE SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE AT KAST THAT A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND COULD PUSH
SOME FOG INTO THE TERMINAL FROM YOUNGS BAY...WHICH COULD DROP CIGS
AND VIS TO IFR...BUT THIS IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF DUE TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE. INLAND SITES WILL STAY VFR THROUGH TODAY...BUT CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
FOG LATER TONIGHT WHICH COULD BE DENSE ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH.
THIS WILL BRING CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO IFR/LIFR EARLY SUNDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL HELP TO MIX
OUT THIS FOG BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON UP NORTH...BUT
KEUG AND POSSIBLY KSLE AS WELL MIGHT ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WILL START TO
DETERIORATE LATE EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
FOG TO START TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING...LOWERING VIS TO
MVFR BY 10Z WITH A GOOD CHANCE CIGS AND VIS COULD LOWER TO IFR BY
12Z. WITH FOG OVER THE AREA...CIGS AND VIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR
UNTIL AROUND 15Z WHEN LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS START TO DEVELOP
HELPING TO LIFT CIGS AND VIS TO MVFR BY 18Z...AND IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 20-21Z. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...WINDS CURRENTLY ARE AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS ACROSS THE
WATERS AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE WATERS. A SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO OUR
NORTH WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH COULD
POSSIBLY BRING WINDS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. AS OF NOW
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH AS MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT ON HOW
STRONG THE WINDS WILL GET OVER THE WATERS. AFTER TUESDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

SEAS AROUND 10 TO 12 FT CURRENTLY WILL FALL BELOW 10 FT LATER
THIS EVENING. NORTHERN WATERS COULD HANG ON TO SEAS ABOVE 10 FT A
LITTLE LONGER THAN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS SHOULD FALL TO 7 TO
9 FT LATER TONIGHT...BUT THIS BREAK MAY BE BRIEF AS MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER 10 FT SWELL MOVING IN MID-MORNING SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BRING
SEAS RIGHT BACK UP TO 10 TO 11 FT. DID NOT ISSUE SMALL CRAFT JUST
YET...AS I WOULD LIKE TO SEE SEAS GET A BIT HIGHER AT BUOY 005 TO
HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SWELL ACTUALLY WILL BE 10 FT WHEN
IT REACHES OUR WATERS. WILL LEAVE THIS DECISION TO THE EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT FORECASTERS. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 PM
     PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 241804
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1004 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system is currently moving through the area. This
storm is wetter and will deliver high mountain snow and valley
rain with some remaining isolated pockets of freezing rain through
this morning. Record high temperatures may be possible both Sunday
and Monday. More fog and low clouds are expected next week as
high pressure builds back in over the region. A weak storm system
will affect the area mid- week then high pressure will return.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update to keep patchy fog in portions of the basin, West
Plains and some of the northern valleys for a few more hours as
area webcams and surface observations show some stubborn areas
where fog is not lifting into a stratus layer. Narrow bands of
rain are sliding southeast from the Spokane area, across Benewah
County and into southwest Shoshone County. A weak shortwave
impulse will move through the resident upper level ridge today.
This, along with a decent amount of isentropic ascent will keep
the mention of rain and high mountain snow in the forecast today.
Easterly downsloping winds should keep the southeast zones out of
the fog and low stratus today. Max temps have been increased over
the Lewis-Clark Valley, Camas Prairie and NE Blue Mts. Strong warm
air advection and downsloping winds off the Blues has allowed
portions of the L-C Valley to warm into the mid 50s already this
morning. We could see a few locations approach record high temps
if there is enough mixing and breaks in the clouds. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Stratus and fog continue to be the main threat for most
TAF sites. IFR ceilings at KMWH and KEAT and fog in the KGEG-KCOE
area should improve by midday as light rain tries to scour out
the soup. KPUW and KLWS should have enough downsloping flow from
the east to remain VFR/MVFR through this afternoon. New moisture
will bring a return of low stratus/fog overnight. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        43  40  47  33  47  33 /  60  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  43  40  47  35  50  33 /  70  20   0   0   0   0
Pullman        52  39  54  36  55  36 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       53  38  57  37  58  37 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       40  35  39  34  40  33 /  50  20   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      44  37  45  34  46  32 /  90  40  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        42  37  47  38  51  36 /  90  50  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     46  36  46  35  44  34 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      44  37  45  34  39  35 /  10   0   0  10  10   0
Omak           39  34  41  32  37  32 /  20  10   0  10  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 241804
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1004 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system is currently moving through the area. This
storm is wetter and will deliver high mountain snow and valley
rain with some remaining isolated pockets of freezing rain through
this morning. Record high temperatures may be possible both Sunday
and Monday. More fog and low clouds are expected next week as
high pressure builds back in over the region. A weak storm system
will affect the area mid- week then high pressure will return.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update to keep patchy fog in portions of the basin, West
Plains and some of the northern valleys for a few more hours as
area webcams and surface observations show some stubborn areas
where fog is not lifting into a stratus layer. Narrow bands of
rain are sliding southeast from the Spokane area, across Benewah
County and into southwest Shoshone County. A weak shortwave
impulse will move through the resident upper level ridge today.
This, along with a decent amount of isentropic ascent will keep
the mention of rain and high mountain snow in the forecast today.
Easterly downsloping winds should keep the southeast zones out of
the fog and low stratus today. Max temps have been increased over
the Lewis-Clark Valley, Camas Prairie and NE Blue Mts. Strong warm
air advection and downsloping winds off the Blues has allowed
portions of the L-C Valley to warm into the mid 50s already this
morning. We could see a few locations approach record high temps
if there is enough mixing and breaks in the clouds. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Stratus and fog continue to be the main threat for most
TAF sites. IFR ceilings at KMWH and KEAT and fog in the KGEG-KCOE
area should improve by midday as light rain tries to scour out
the soup. KPUW and KLWS should have enough downsloping flow from
the east to remain VFR/MVFR through this afternoon. New moisture
will bring a return of low stratus/fog overnight. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        43  40  47  33  47  33 /  60  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  43  40  47  35  50  33 /  70  20   0   0   0   0
Pullman        52  39  54  36  55  36 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       53  38  57  37  58  37 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       40  35  39  34  40  33 /  50  20   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      44  37  45  34  46  32 /  90  40  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        42  37  47  38  51  36 /  90  50  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     46  36  46  35  44  34 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      44  37  45  34  39  35 /  10   0   0  10  10   0
Omak           39  34  41  32  37  32 /  20  10   0  10  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 241658
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON WILL SHIFT NORTH INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND MILD WEATHER ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.
WEAK FRONTS WILL REACH THE AREA LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...HEAVY RAIN FELL OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN OLYMPICS
AND THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE
INSUFFICIENT TO CAUSE FLOODING ON THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA RIVERS...BUT
WAS ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE SNOQUALMIE RIVER AT THE FALLS AND THE
SNOQUALMIE RIVER AT CARNATION TO FLOOD. SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW
FOR DETAILS.

RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS NOW SHOW THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PASSING WARM FRONT SITTING FROM JUST NORTH OF EVERETT INTO
VANCOUVER ISLAND AND NORTHWARD. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA ABOUT MIDDAY. WHILE THE MAIN FRONTAL FORCING
WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT THROUGH THIS EVENING. KLGX RADAR
CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE MOVING TOWARD THE
COAST...AND SOME OF THIS WILL MAKE IT INLAND IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE TODAY. DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE MILD WITH THE 8 AM TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE RECORD HIGH OF
58 TODAY AT SEATAC AIRPORT WILL BE THREATENED DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
DRIPS.

WITH ALL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...ANY CLEARING AT ALL WILL
ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET DOWN TO 50 DEGREES
TONIGHT...QUITE WARM FOR LATE JANUARY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY SCOUR OUT MIDDAY SUNDAY
LEAVING JUST SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. SUBSIDENCE WILL
RAISE TEMPERATURES AT 2000 FT TO 17C-18C PER THE 12Z NAM12 LATE SUN
AFTERNOON...AND IT SHOULD REACH 60 DEGREES IN MANY PLACES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON-BREAKING DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR JAN 25. WITH LESS
CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO GIVE MORE
FOG SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE TEMPERATURE ON MONDAY -IF
THE FOG LIFTS EARLY ENOUGH- WILL REACH 60 AGAIN...BREAKING THE
RECORD. BUT TEMPERATURE FORECASTING THIS TIME OF YEAR WHEN
INVERSIONS DOMINATE IS TRICKY. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN
WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE LARGE RIDGE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING. POPS WERE TRIMMED BACK WITH DRY WEATHER INDICATED FOR
THE INTERIOR FROM ABOUT EVERETT SWD FOR THE MORNING PERIOD. THE
FRONT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY.

THE GFS LIFTS A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THERE IS LITTLE QPF SHOWN BY THE
CANADIAN SO THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THURSDAY ALSO
LOOKS DRY ON MOST THE 00Z RUNS BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL BE
PASSING JUST N OF OUR AREA. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS GOING FOR
NOW BUT THE TREND IS STARTING TO LOOK DRIER FOR THESE TWO DAYS. MOST
MODELS AGREE ON A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE DRY AND CONTINUED MILD WEATHER. MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2.5 INCHES FELL
OVERNIGHT IN THE CASCADE RIVER BASINS OF KING AND SOUTH SNOHOMISH
COUNTIES. THIS WAS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON THE SNOQUALMIE
RIVER AT THE FALLS. MINOR FLOODING IS LIKELY ON THE SNOQUALMIE RIVER
AT CARNATION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD
WARNING STATEMENT FOR DETAILS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO FELL
OVERNIGHT IN THE CASCADES OF WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY. THE NOOKSACK
RIVER AT FERNDALE WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY...BUT AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT IT WILL REMAIN ABOUT A FOOT BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH ABOUT
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO RECEDE NICELY. WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A WEAK WARM
FRONT OVER THE NORTH WILL MOVE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN MOIST AND STABLE.

CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000 FOOT RANGE WITH LOCAL
CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET AND VISIBILITIES 3-5SM IN LIGHT RAIN OR
FOG. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

KSEA...DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. SOUTHERLY WIND 6-10 KT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS WILL MOVE
NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING LIGHT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON
TUESDAY.

WINDS HAVE EASED OVER MOST OF THE WATERS THIS MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. THE
SWELL WILL REMAIN ABOVE 10 FEET TODAY FOR THE INNER COASTAL WATERS
AND THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT AND THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS.

KING TIDES...THE HIGHEST HIGH TIDES OF THE YEAR...ARE OCCURRING. THE
FORECAST HIGH TIDE FOR SEATTLE THIS MORNING IS 13.2 FEET AROUND 8
AM. MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW STARTS AT 13.5 FEET. SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
REMAINS QUITE HIGH...ABOVE 1025 MB. CURRENTLY THE TIDAL ANOMALY
NEGATIVE 0.6 FEET GIVING AN ACTUAL HIGH TIDE ABOUT 12.6 FT. IN OTHER
WORDS THERE WILL BE NO MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW. BURKE

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SNOQUALMIE
      RIVER IN KING AND SNOHOMISH COUNTIES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT FOR
      HAZARDOUS SEAS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML


















000
FXUS66 KSEW 241658
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON WILL SHIFT NORTH INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND MILD WEATHER ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.
WEAK FRONTS WILL REACH THE AREA LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...HEAVY RAIN FELL OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN OLYMPICS
AND THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE
INSUFFICIENT TO CAUSE FLOODING ON THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA RIVERS...BUT
WAS ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE SNOQUALMIE RIVER AT THE FALLS AND THE
SNOQUALMIE RIVER AT CARNATION TO FLOOD. SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW
FOR DETAILS.

RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS NOW SHOW THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PASSING WARM FRONT SITTING FROM JUST NORTH OF EVERETT INTO
VANCOUVER ISLAND AND NORTHWARD. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA ABOUT MIDDAY. WHILE THE MAIN FRONTAL FORCING
WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT THROUGH THIS EVENING. KLGX RADAR
CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE MOVING TOWARD THE
COAST...AND SOME OF THIS WILL MAKE IT INLAND IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE TODAY. DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE MILD WITH THE 8 AM TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE RECORD HIGH OF
58 TODAY AT SEATAC AIRPORT WILL BE THREATENED DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
DRIPS.

WITH ALL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...ANY CLEARING AT ALL WILL
ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET DOWN TO 50 DEGREES
TONIGHT...QUITE WARM FOR LATE JANUARY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY SCOUR OUT MIDDAY SUNDAY
LEAVING JUST SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. SUBSIDENCE WILL
RAISE TEMPERATURES AT 2000 FT TO 17C-18C PER THE 12Z NAM12 LATE SUN
AFTERNOON...AND IT SHOULD REACH 60 DEGREES IN MANY PLACES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON-BREAKING DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR JAN 25. WITH LESS
CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO GIVE MORE
FOG SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE TEMPERATURE ON MONDAY -IF
THE FOG LIFTS EARLY ENOUGH- WILL REACH 60 AGAIN...BREAKING THE
RECORD. BUT TEMPERATURE FORECASTING THIS TIME OF YEAR WHEN
INVERSIONS DOMINATE IS TRICKY. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN
WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE LARGE RIDGE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING. POPS WERE TRIMMED BACK WITH DRY WEATHER INDICATED FOR
THE INTERIOR FROM ABOUT EVERETT SWD FOR THE MORNING PERIOD. THE
FRONT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY.

THE GFS LIFTS A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THERE IS LITTLE QPF SHOWN BY THE
CANADIAN SO THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THURSDAY ALSO
LOOKS DRY ON MOST THE 00Z RUNS BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL BE
PASSING JUST N OF OUR AREA. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS GOING FOR
NOW BUT THE TREND IS STARTING TO LOOK DRIER FOR THESE TWO DAYS. MOST
MODELS AGREE ON A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE DRY AND CONTINUED MILD WEATHER. MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2.5 INCHES FELL
OVERNIGHT IN THE CASCADE RIVER BASINS OF KING AND SOUTH SNOHOMISH
COUNTIES. THIS WAS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON THE SNOQUALMIE
RIVER AT THE FALLS. MINOR FLOODING IS LIKELY ON THE SNOQUALMIE RIVER
AT CARNATION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD
WARNING STATEMENT FOR DETAILS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO FELL
OVERNIGHT IN THE CASCADES OF WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY. THE NOOKSACK
RIVER AT FERNDALE WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY...BUT AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT IT WILL REMAIN ABOUT A FOOT BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH ABOUT
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO RECEDE NICELY. WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A WEAK WARM
FRONT OVER THE NORTH WILL MOVE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN MOIST AND STABLE.

CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000 FOOT RANGE WITH LOCAL
CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET AND VISIBILITIES 3-5SM IN LIGHT RAIN OR
FOG. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

KSEA...DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. SOUTHERLY WIND 6-10 KT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS WILL MOVE
NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING LIGHT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON
TUESDAY.

WINDS HAVE EASED OVER MOST OF THE WATERS THIS MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. THE
SWELL WILL REMAIN ABOVE 10 FEET TODAY FOR THE INNER COASTAL WATERS
AND THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT AND THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS.

KING TIDES...THE HIGHEST HIGH TIDES OF THE YEAR...ARE OCCURRING. THE
FORECAST HIGH TIDE FOR SEATTLE THIS MORNING IS 13.2 FEET AROUND 8
AM. MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW STARTS AT 13.5 FEET. SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
REMAINS QUITE HIGH...ABOVE 1025 MB. CURRENTLY THE TIDAL ANOMALY
NEGATIVE 0.6 FEET GIVING AN ACTUAL HIGH TIDE ABOUT 12.6 FT. IN OTHER
WORDS THERE WILL BE NO MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW. BURKE

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SNOQUALMIE
      RIVER IN KING AND SNOHOMISH COUNTIES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT FOR
      HAZARDOUS SEAS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

















000
FXUS66 KPQR 241637
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
835 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE NORTH OF THE
REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
INLAND VALLEYS WILL BE TRAPPED UNDER STRONG INVERSIONS WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
APPEAR POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT DRY WEATHER
WILL LIKELY RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT PRECIP
RETURNS OVER THE SW WA AND EXTREME NWRN OREGON AS OF 1630Z. 12Z NAM
AND GFS INDICATE SOME DEGREE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 290K
SURFACE IN THE ABOVE-MENTIONED AREAS THROUGH 18Z...THEN ANY
ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF SW
WA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PATTERN FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AND
SUN...PUSHING ANY WARM-FRONTAL REMNANTS FURTHERN N THROUGH WA.
BETTER RADIATIVE CONDITIONS FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT
AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS BEGIN TO FORM. NAM HINTS AT A LITTLE LIGHT
OFFSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE TONIGHT... BUT LIKELY
NOT ENOUGH TO STIR THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALL THAT MUCH.

STRONG H5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUN. MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE +15C TO +18C 850 TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUN. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE THE MORE INTRIGUING AND DIFFICULT APSECT TO THE
FORECAST SUN AND MON...MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. EXPECT AREAS N
OF KUAO TO HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE OF CLEARING SUN AND MON. AREAS S OF
KUAO LIKELY TO HAVE MORE PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS... ESPECIALLY
IF A LIGHT NLY SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A FEW
JANUARY DAYS WITH 850 MB TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 17C SINCE THE 1950S WHEN
UPPER AIR RECORDS ARE FIRST AVAILABLE. SIMILARLY...LOW TEMPS SUN AND
MON MORNING EXPECTED TO BE MILD ABOVE THE INVERSION IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE AXIS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS WELL E OF THE REGION MON WITH H8
TEMPS COOLING TO 10 TO 12C. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO STICK AROUND
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...AS THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH. BUMPED UP THE POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR A CHANCE
OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH ON
LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY AND IS THE MOST PROMISING CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...BUT DETAILS ARE STILL A BIT SKETCHY. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO REBUILD LATE NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE
RETURN OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...AND BENIGN CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE
TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS. /64
&&


.AVIATION...PRIMARILY MVFR OR BETTER ACROSS THE TAF TERMINALS
EXCEPT OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS AND CIGS. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT SHOULD PUSH ANY REMAINING RAIN THREAT NORTH OF THE TAF SITES
WITH KAST HOLDING ON TO THE THREAT LONGEST TODAY. SOME LIFR FOG IN
THE AREA OF KEUG...BUT WIND HAS KEPT IT AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL.
EXPECT TO SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO PRIMARILY VFR ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR
CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING UNDER A LOW STRATUS/FOG DECK OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR A FAIRLY
SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION WITH A TOP AROUND 800 TO 1000 FEET MSL.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS BOUNCE AROUND 3000 FT THROUGH 19Z WITH
A SCATTERED/BROKEN DECK FLOATING AROUND 017. EXPECT CIGS TO
EVENTUALLY LIFT ABOVE 4000 FEET BY 20Z. AFTER 25/06Z...GIVE ABOUT
A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN IFR DECK TO DEVELOP WITHIN 20NM OF THE
FIELD AND PERHAPS LIMIT VISUAL APPROACHES THROUGH TERRAIN
OBSCURATION. -MCCOY/JBONK

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS CURRENTLY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSITS THE REGION. A SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE NORTH BUT WELL
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND COULD BRING ANOTHER THREAT
OF MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...NEXT
THREAT WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL PERHAPS A WEEK FROM NOW AS A
SUMMERTIME LIKE THERMAL TROUGH MAY SET UP ALONG THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST FOR SOME GUSTY NORTHERLIES.

SEAS AROUND 11 TO 12 FT CURRENTLY AND GRADUALLY FALL
TODAY...DROPPING BELOW 10 FT IN THE CENTRAL WATERS AROUND SUNSET
AND THE NORTHERN WATERS SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WILL SEE A BRIEF
BREAK WITH SEAS 7 TO 9 FT LATE TONIGHT UNTIL ANOTHER 10FT WESTERLY
SWELL MOVES IN...BRINGING SEAS BACK UP TO AROUND 10 FT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SEAS DROP BACK BELOW 10 FT EARLY MONDAY ANS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL UNDER 10 FT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
-MCCOY/JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 PM
     PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 241637
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
835 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE NORTH OF THE
REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
INLAND VALLEYS WILL BE TRAPPED UNDER STRONG INVERSIONS WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
APPEAR POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT DRY WEATHER
WILL LIKELY RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT PRECIP
RETURNS OVER THE SW WA AND EXTREME NWRN OREGON AS OF 1630Z. 12Z NAM
AND GFS INDICATE SOME DEGREE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 290K
SURFACE IN THE ABOVE-MENTIONED AREAS THROUGH 18Z...THEN ANY
ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF SW
WA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PATTERN FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AND
SUN...PUSHING ANY WARM-FRONTAL REMNANTS FURTHERN N THROUGH WA.
BETTER RADIATIVE CONDITIONS FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT
AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS BEGIN TO FORM. NAM HINTS AT A LITTLE LIGHT
OFFSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE TONIGHT... BUT LIKELY
NOT ENOUGH TO STIR THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALL THAT MUCH.

STRONG H5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUN. MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE +15C TO +18C 850 TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUN. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE THE MORE INTRIGUING AND DIFFICULT APSECT TO THE
FORECAST SUN AND MON...MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. EXPECT AREAS N
OF KUAO TO HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE OF CLEARING SUN AND MON. AREAS S OF
KUAO LIKELY TO HAVE MORE PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS... ESPECIALLY
IF A LIGHT NLY SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A FEW
JANUARY DAYS WITH 850 MB TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 17C SINCE THE 1950S WHEN
UPPER AIR RECORDS ARE FIRST AVAILABLE. SIMILARLY...LOW TEMPS SUN AND
MON MORNING EXPECTED TO BE MILD ABOVE THE INVERSION IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE AXIS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS WELL E OF THE REGION MON WITH H8
TEMPS COOLING TO 10 TO 12C. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO STICK AROUND
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...AS THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH. BUMPED UP THE POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR A CHANCE
OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH ON
LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY AND IS THE MOST PROMISING CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...BUT DETAILS ARE STILL A BIT SKETCHY. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO REBUILD LATE NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE
RETURN OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...AND BENIGN CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE
TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS. /64
&&


.AVIATION...PRIMARILY MVFR OR BETTER ACROSS THE TAF TERMINALS
EXCEPT OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS AND CIGS. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT SHOULD PUSH ANY REMAINING RAIN THREAT NORTH OF THE TAF SITES
WITH KAST HOLDING ON TO THE THREAT LONGEST TODAY. SOME LIFR FOG IN
THE AREA OF KEUG...BUT WIND HAS KEPT IT AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL.
EXPECT TO SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO PRIMARILY VFR ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR
CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING UNDER A LOW STRATUS/FOG DECK OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR A FAIRLY
SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION WITH A TOP AROUND 800 TO 1000 FEET MSL.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS BOUNCE AROUND 3000 FT THROUGH 19Z WITH
A SCATTERED/BROKEN DECK FLOATING AROUND 017. EXPECT CIGS TO
EVENTUALLY LIFT ABOVE 4000 FEET BY 20Z. AFTER 25/06Z...GIVE ABOUT
A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN IFR DECK TO DEVELOP WITHIN 20NM OF THE
FIELD AND PERHAPS LIMIT VISUAL APPROACHES THROUGH TERRAIN
OBSCURATION. -MCCOY/JBONK

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS CURRENTLY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSITS THE REGION. A SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE NORTH BUT WELL
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND COULD BRING ANOTHER THREAT
OF MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...NEXT
THREAT WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL PERHAPS A WEEK FROM NOW AS A
SUMMERTIME LIKE THERMAL TROUGH MAY SET UP ALONG THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST FOR SOME GUSTY NORTHERLIES.

SEAS AROUND 11 TO 12 FT CURRENTLY AND GRADUALLY FALL
TODAY...DROPPING BELOW 10 FT IN THE CENTRAL WATERS AROUND SUNSET
AND THE NORTHERN WATERS SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WILL SEE A BRIEF
BREAK WITH SEAS 7 TO 9 FT LATE TONIGHT UNTIL ANOTHER 10FT WESTERLY
SWELL MOVES IN...BRINGING SEAS BACK UP TO AROUND 10 FT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SEAS DROP BACK BELOW 10 FT EARLY MONDAY ANS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL UNDER 10 FT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
-MCCOY/JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 PM
     PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 241333
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
530 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL SHIFT NORTH
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY
AND MILD WEATHER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. WEAK FRONTS WILL REACH THE AREA
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SEE UPDATED HYDRO SECTION...A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED
ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF WRN WA EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENT RADAR
SHOWS LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST EXTENDING INTO THE SW
INTERIOR...PUGET SOUND AND THE CASCADES AT 2 AM PST. WHILE THE
LOWLANDS HAVE GENERALLY RECEIVED UNDER A QUARTER INCH...THE COAST
AND MOUNTAINS HAD 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES THE PAST 6 HOURS. THIS IS
ENOUGH TO CAUSE RIVER RISES WITH A COUPLE RIVERS POSSIBLY REACHING
NEAR FLOOD STAGE. SEE THE HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

THE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD TODAY LIFTING THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY NWD
ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF OVER THE S COAST/SW
INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON AND BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE FAR N INTERIOR
BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND SO IT SHOULD BE A CLOUDY YET MILD DAY TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE QUITE HIGH ABOVE 8000 FEET. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREATER
PUGET SOUND REGION WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S AND COULD COME CLOSE TO
OR SURPASS THE RECORD FOR THE DAY AT SOME LOCATIONS. THE RECORD FOR
SEA-TAC TODAY IS 58 SET IN 1995.

UPPER HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TONIGHT TO OVER 5750M AND THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LIGHT. MODELS SHOW WARMING ALOFT WHICH SHOULD
TRAP RESIDUAL MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOW LEVELS. AREAS OF FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND COULD BE
STUBBORN TO MIX OUT ACROSS THE SW INTERIOR/FAR S PUGET SOUND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MOST SPOTS WILL SEE PARTIAL AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND HIGHS
COULD REACH 60 IN SOME PLACES INCLUDING SEATTLE WHICH WOULD BE A
RECORD.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE PAC NW INTO MONDAY. FOGGY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE MORNING AS INVERSIONS
STRENGTHEN. OFFSHORE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO CLEAR OUT
MOISTURE SO FOG COULD AGAIN LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SW INTERIOR/S SOUND. OTHER AREAS WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY BY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE
LARGE RIDGE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ENCOUNTERING. POPS WERE TRIMMED BACK
WITH DRY WEATHER INDICATED FOR THE INTERIOR FROM ABOUT EVERETT SWD
FOR THE MORNING PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY.

THE GFS LIFTS A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THERE IS LITTLE QPF SHOWN BY THE
CANADIAN SO THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THURSDAY ALSO
LOOKS DRY ON MOST THE 00Z RUNS BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL BE
PASSING JUST N OF OUR AREA. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS GOING FOR
NOW BUT THE TREND IS STARTING TO LOOK DRIER FOR THESE TWO DAYS. MOST
MODELS AGREE ON A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE DRY AND CONTINUED MILD WEATHER. MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...UPDATED 530 AM PST...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO
2.5 INCHES FELL OVERNIGHT IN THE CASCADE RIVER BASINS OF KING AND
SOUTH SNOHOMISH COUNTIES. THIS WAS ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE RISK OF
MINOR FLOODING ON THE SNOQUALMIE RIVER. A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE SNOQUALMIE RIVER AT THE FALLS AND AT CARNATION THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WARNING STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

SIGNIFICANT LOCALIZED RAIN AMOUNTS ALSO OCCURRED IN THE CASCADES OF
WHATCOM COUNTY. THE NOOKSACK COULD COME CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT NO FLOODING IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. FORECASTS
SHOULD BE MONITORED.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATER TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH MID WEEK WILL NOT
BRING HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING TODAY. WEAK WARM FRONT
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA LIFTING NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. AIR MASS MOIST AND STABLE.

CEILINGS GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000 FOOT RANGE WITH AREAS OF
CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET AND VISIBILITIES 3-5SM IN LIGHT RAIN OR
FOG. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

KSEA...CEILINGS NEAR 500 FEET WITH VISIBILITIES 3-5SM AT TIMES IN
LIGHT RAIN OR FOG. SLOW IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS
RISING INTO THE 1000-2000 FOOT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. SOUTHERLY WIND 6 TO 10 KNOTS. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING LIGHT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON
TUESDAY.

WINDS HAVE EASED OVER MOST OF THE WATERS THIS MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. THE
SWELL WILL REMAIN ABOVE 10 FEET TODAY FOR THE INNER COASTAL WATERS
AND THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT AND THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS.

KING TIDES...THE HIGHEST HIGH TIDES OF THE YEAR...ARE OCCURRING. THE
FORECAST HIGH TIDES FOR SEATTLE THIS MORNING IS 13.2 FEET. MINOR
TIDAL OVERFLOW STARTS AT 13.5 FEET. SEA LEVEL PRESSURE REMAINS QUITE
HIGH...ABOVE 1025 MB. CURRENTLY THE TIDAL ANOMALY IS JUST A TENTH OF
A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED VALUES BUT WITH THE WINDS EASING IN ADDITION
TO THE HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE EXPECT THE ANOMALY TO TURN NEGATIVE
BEFORE HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING JUST BEFORE 8 AM. MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
IS NOT EXPECTED THIS MORNING. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT FOR
     HAZARDOUS SEAS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PUGET SOUND.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML















000
FXUS66 KSEW 241333
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
530 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL SHIFT NORTH
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY
AND MILD WEATHER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. WEAK FRONTS WILL REACH THE AREA
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SEE UPDATED HYDRO SECTION...A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED
ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF WRN WA EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENT RADAR
SHOWS LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST EXTENDING INTO THE SW
INTERIOR...PUGET SOUND AND THE CASCADES AT 2 AM PST. WHILE THE
LOWLANDS HAVE GENERALLY RECEIVED UNDER A QUARTER INCH...THE COAST
AND MOUNTAINS HAD 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES THE PAST 6 HOURS. THIS IS
ENOUGH TO CAUSE RIVER RISES WITH A COUPLE RIVERS POSSIBLY REACHING
NEAR FLOOD STAGE. SEE THE HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

THE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD TODAY LIFTING THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY NWD
ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF OVER THE S COAST/SW
INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON AND BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE FAR N INTERIOR
BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND SO IT SHOULD BE A CLOUDY YET MILD DAY TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE QUITE HIGH ABOVE 8000 FEET. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREATER
PUGET SOUND REGION WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S AND COULD COME CLOSE TO
OR SURPASS THE RECORD FOR THE DAY AT SOME LOCATIONS. THE RECORD FOR
SEA-TAC TODAY IS 58 SET IN 1995.

UPPER HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TONIGHT TO OVER 5750M AND THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LIGHT. MODELS SHOW WARMING ALOFT WHICH SHOULD
TRAP RESIDUAL MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOW LEVELS. AREAS OF FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND COULD BE
STUBBORN TO MIX OUT ACROSS THE SW INTERIOR/FAR S PUGET SOUND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MOST SPOTS WILL SEE PARTIAL AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND HIGHS
COULD REACH 60 IN SOME PLACES INCLUDING SEATTLE WHICH WOULD BE A
RECORD.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE PAC NW INTO MONDAY. FOGGY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE MORNING AS INVERSIONS
STRENGTHEN. OFFSHORE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO CLEAR OUT
MOISTURE SO FOG COULD AGAIN LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SW INTERIOR/S SOUND. OTHER AREAS WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY BY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE
LARGE RIDGE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ENCOUNTERING. POPS WERE TRIMMED BACK
WITH DRY WEATHER INDICATED FOR THE INTERIOR FROM ABOUT EVERETT SWD
FOR THE MORNING PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY.

THE GFS LIFTS A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THERE IS LITTLE QPF SHOWN BY THE
CANADIAN SO THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THURSDAY ALSO
LOOKS DRY ON MOST THE 00Z RUNS BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL BE
PASSING JUST N OF OUR AREA. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS GOING FOR
NOW BUT THE TREND IS STARTING TO LOOK DRIER FOR THESE TWO DAYS. MOST
MODELS AGREE ON A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE DRY AND CONTINUED MILD WEATHER. MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...UPDATED 530 AM PST...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO
2.5 INCHES FELL OVERNIGHT IN THE CASCADE RIVER BASINS OF KING AND
SOUTH SNOHOMISH COUNTIES. THIS WAS ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE RISK OF
MINOR FLOODING ON THE SNOQUALMIE RIVER. A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE SNOQUALMIE RIVER AT THE FALLS AND AT CARNATION THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WARNING STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

SIGNIFICANT LOCALIZED RAIN AMOUNTS ALSO OCCURRED IN THE CASCADES OF
WHATCOM COUNTY. THE NOOKSACK COULD COME CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT NO FLOODING IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. FORECASTS
SHOULD BE MONITORED.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATER TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH MID WEEK WILL NOT
BRING HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING TODAY. WEAK WARM FRONT
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA LIFTING NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. AIR MASS MOIST AND STABLE.

CEILINGS GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000 FOOT RANGE WITH AREAS OF
CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET AND VISIBILITIES 3-5SM IN LIGHT RAIN OR
FOG. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

KSEA...CEILINGS NEAR 500 FEET WITH VISIBILITIES 3-5SM AT TIMES IN
LIGHT RAIN OR FOG. SLOW IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS
RISING INTO THE 1000-2000 FOOT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. SOUTHERLY WIND 6 TO 10 KNOTS. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING LIGHT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON
TUESDAY.

WINDS HAVE EASED OVER MOST OF THE WATERS THIS MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. THE
SWELL WILL REMAIN ABOVE 10 FEET TODAY FOR THE INNER COASTAL WATERS
AND THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT AND THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS.

KING TIDES...THE HIGHEST HIGH TIDES OF THE YEAR...ARE OCCURRING. THE
FORECAST HIGH TIDES FOR SEATTLE THIS MORNING IS 13.2 FEET. MINOR
TIDAL OVERFLOW STARTS AT 13.5 FEET. SEA LEVEL PRESSURE REMAINS QUITE
HIGH...ABOVE 1025 MB. CURRENTLY THE TIDAL ANOMALY IS JUST A TENTH OF
A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED VALUES BUT WITH THE WINDS EASING IN ADDITION
TO THE HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE EXPECT THE ANOMALY TO TURN NEGATIVE
BEFORE HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING JUST BEFORE 8 AM. MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
IS NOT EXPECTED THIS MORNING. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT FOR
     HAZARDOUS SEAS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PUGET SOUND.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML















000
FXUS66 KSEW 241333
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
530 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL SHIFT NORTH
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY
AND MILD WEATHER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. WEAK FRONTS WILL REACH THE AREA
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SEE UPDATED HYDRO SECTION...A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED
ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF WRN WA EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENT RADAR
SHOWS LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST EXTENDING INTO THE SW
INTERIOR...PUGET SOUND AND THE CASCADES AT 2 AM PST. WHILE THE
LOWLANDS HAVE GENERALLY RECEIVED UNDER A QUARTER INCH...THE COAST
AND MOUNTAINS HAD 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES THE PAST 6 HOURS. THIS IS
ENOUGH TO CAUSE RIVER RISES WITH A COUPLE RIVERS POSSIBLY REACHING
NEAR FLOOD STAGE. SEE THE HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

THE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD TODAY LIFTING THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY NWD
ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF OVER THE S COAST/SW
INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON AND BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE FAR N INTERIOR
BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND SO IT SHOULD BE A CLOUDY YET MILD DAY TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE QUITE HIGH ABOVE 8000 FEET. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREATER
PUGET SOUND REGION WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S AND COULD COME CLOSE TO
OR SURPASS THE RECORD FOR THE DAY AT SOME LOCATIONS. THE RECORD FOR
SEA-TAC TODAY IS 58 SET IN 1995.

UPPER HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TONIGHT TO OVER 5750M AND THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LIGHT. MODELS SHOW WARMING ALOFT WHICH SHOULD
TRAP RESIDUAL MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOW LEVELS. AREAS OF FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND COULD BE
STUBBORN TO MIX OUT ACROSS THE SW INTERIOR/FAR S PUGET SOUND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MOST SPOTS WILL SEE PARTIAL AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND HIGHS
COULD REACH 60 IN SOME PLACES INCLUDING SEATTLE WHICH WOULD BE A
RECORD.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE PAC NW INTO MONDAY. FOGGY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE MORNING AS INVERSIONS
STRENGTHEN. OFFSHORE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO CLEAR OUT
MOISTURE SO FOG COULD AGAIN LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SW INTERIOR/S SOUND. OTHER AREAS WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY BY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE
LARGE RIDGE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ENCOUNTERING. POPS WERE TRIMMED BACK
WITH DRY WEATHER INDICATED FOR THE INTERIOR FROM ABOUT EVERETT SWD
FOR THE MORNING PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY.

THE GFS LIFTS A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THERE IS LITTLE QPF SHOWN BY THE
CANADIAN SO THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THURSDAY ALSO
LOOKS DRY ON MOST THE 00Z RUNS BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL BE
PASSING JUST N OF OUR AREA. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS GOING FOR
NOW BUT THE TREND IS STARTING TO LOOK DRIER FOR THESE TWO DAYS. MOST
MODELS AGREE ON A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE DRY AND CONTINUED MILD WEATHER. MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...UPDATED 530 AM PST...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO
2.5 INCHES FELL OVERNIGHT IN THE CASCADE RIVER BASINS OF KING AND
SOUTH SNOHOMISH COUNTIES. THIS WAS ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE RISK OF
MINOR FLOODING ON THE SNOQUALMIE RIVER. A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE SNOQUALMIE RIVER AT THE FALLS AND AT CARNATION THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WARNING STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

SIGNIFICANT LOCALIZED RAIN AMOUNTS ALSO OCCURRED IN THE CASCADES OF
WHATCOM COUNTY. THE NOOKSACK COULD COME CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT NO FLOODING IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. FORECASTS
SHOULD BE MONITORED.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATER TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH MID WEEK WILL NOT
BRING HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING TODAY. WEAK WARM FRONT
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA LIFTING NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. AIR MASS MOIST AND STABLE.

CEILINGS GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000 FOOT RANGE WITH AREAS OF
CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET AND VISIBILITIES 3-5SM IN LIGHT RAIN OR
FOG. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

KSEA...CEILINGS NEAR 500 FEET WITH VISIBILITIES 3-5SM AT TIMES IN
LIGHT RAIN OR FOG. SLOW IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS
RISING INTO THE 1000-2000 FOOT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. SOUTHERLY WIND 6 TO 10 KNOTS. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING LIGHT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON
TUESDAY.

WINDS HAVE EASED OVER MOST OF THE WATERS THIS MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. THE
SWELL WILL REMAIN ABOVE 10 FEET TODAY FOR THE INNER COASTAL WATERS
AND THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT AND THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS.

KING TIDES...THE HIGHEST HIGH TIDES OF THE YEAR...ARE OCCURRING. THE
FORECAST HIGH TIDES FOR SEATTLE THIS MORNING IS 13.2 FEET. MINOR
TIDAL OVERFLOW STARTS AT 13.5 FEET. SEA LEVEL PRESSURE REMAINS QUITE
HIGH...ABOVE 1025 MB. CURRENTLY THE TIDAL ANOMALY IS JUST A TENTH OF
A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED VALUES BUT WITH THE WINDS EASING IN ADDITION
TO THE HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE EXPECT THE ANOMALY TO TURN NEGATIVE
BEFORE HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING JUST BEFORE 8 AM. MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
IS NOT EXPECTED THIS MORNING. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT FOR
     HAZARDOUS SEAS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PUGET SOUND.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML















000
FXUS66 KSEW 241333
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
530 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL SHIFT NORTH
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY
AND MILD WEATHER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. WEAK FRONTS WILL REACH THE AREA
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SEE UPDATED HYDRO SECTION...A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED
ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF WRN WA EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENT RADAR
SHOWS LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST EXTENDING INTO THE SW
INTERIOR...PUGET SOUND AND THE CASCADES AT 2 AM PST. WHILE THE
LOWLANDS HAVE GENERALLY RECEIVED UNDER A QUARTER INCH...THE COAST
AND MOUNTAINS HAD 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES THE PAST 6 HOURS. THIS IS
ENOUGH TO CAUSE RIVER RISES WITH A COUPLE RIVERS POSSIBLY REACHING
NEAR FLOOD STAGE. SEE THE HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

THE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD TODAY LIFTING THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY NWD
ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF OVER THE S COAST/SW
INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON AND BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE FAR N INTERIOR
BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND SO IT SHOULD BE A CLOUDY YET MILD DAY TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE QUITE HIGH ABOVE 8000 FEET. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREATER
PUGET SOUND REGION WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S AND COULD COME CLOSE TO
OR SURPASS THE RECORD FOR THE DAY AT SOME LOCATIONS. THE RECORD FOR
SEA-TAC TODAY IS 58 SET IN 1995.

UPPER HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TONIGHT TO OVER 5750M AND THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LIGHT. MODELS SHOW WARMING ALOFT WHICH SHOULD
TRAP RESIDUAL MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOW LEVELS. AREAS OF FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND COULD BE
STUBBORN TO MIX OUT ACROSS THE SW INTERIOR/FAR S PUGET SOUND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MOST SPOTS WILL SEE PARTIAL AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND HIGHS
COULD REACH 60 IN SOME PLACES INCLUDING SEATTLE WHICH WOULD BE A
RECORD.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE PAC NW INTO MONDAY. FOGGY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE MORNING AS INVERSIONS
STRENGTHEN. OFFSHORE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO CLEAR OUT
MOISTURE SO FOG COULD AGAIN LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SW INTERIOR/S SOUND. OTHER AREAS WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY BY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE
LARGE RIDGE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ENCOUNTERING. POPS WERE TRIMMED BACK
WITH DRY WEATHER INDICATED FOR THE INTERIOR FROM ABOUT EVERETT SWD
FOR THE MORNING PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY.

THE GFS LIFTS A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THERE IS LITTLE QPF SHOWN BY THE
CANADIAN SO THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THURSDAY ALSO
LOOKS DRY ON MOST THE 00Z RUNS BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL BE
PASSING JUST N OF OUR AREA. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS GOING FOR
NOW BUT THE TREND IS STARTING TO LOOK DRIER FOR THESE TWO DAYS. MOST
MODELS AGREE ON A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE DRY AND CONTINUED MILD WEATHER. MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...UPDATED 530 AM PST...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO
2.5 INCHES FELL OVERNIGHT IN THE CASCADE RIVER BASINS OF KING AND
SOUTH SNOHOMISH COUNTIES. THIS WAS ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE RISK OF
MINOR FLOODING ON THE SNOQUALMIE RIVER. A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE SNOQUALMIE RIVER AT THE FALLS AND AT CARNATION THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WARNING STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

SIGNIFICANT LOCALIZED RAIN AMOUNTS ALSO OCCURRED IN THE CASCADES OF
WHATCOM COUNTY. THE NOOKSACK COULD COME CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT NO FLOODING IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. FORECASTS
SHOULD BE MONITORED.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATER TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH MID WEEK WILL NOT
BRING HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING TODAY. WEAK WARM FRONT
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA LIFTING NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. AIR MASS MOIST AND STABLE.

CEILINGS GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000 FOOT RANGE WITH AREAS OF
CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET AND VISIBILITIES 3-5SM IN LIGHT RAIN OR
FOG. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

KSEA...CEILINGS NEAR 500 FEET WITH VISIBILITIES 3-5SM AT TIMES IN
LIGHT RAIN OR FOG. SLOW IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS
RISING INTO THE 1000-2000 FOOT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. SOUTHERLY WIND 6 TO 10 KNOTS. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING LIGHT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON
TUESDAY.

WINDS HAVE EASED OVER MOST OF THE WATERS THIS MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. THE
SWELL WILL REMAIN ABOVE 10 FEET TODAY FOR THE INNER COASTAL WATERS
AND THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT AND THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS.

KING TIDES...THE HIGHEST HIGH TIDES OF THE YEAR...ARE OCCURRING. THE
FORECAST HIGH TIDES FOR SEATTLE THIS MORNING IS 13.2 FEET. MINOR
TIDAL OVERFLOW STARTS AT 13.5 FEET. SEA LEVEL PRESSURE REMAINS QUITE
HIGH...ABOVE 1025 MB. CURRENTLY THE TIDAL ANOMALY IS JUST A TENTH OF
A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED VALUES BUT WITH THE WINDS EASING IN ADDITION
TO THE HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE EXPECT THE ANOMALY TO TURN NEGATIVE
BEFORE HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING JUST BEFORE 8 AM. MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
IS NOT EXPECTED THIS MORNING. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT FOR
     HAZARDOUS SEAS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PUGET SOUND.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML















000
FXUS66 KOTX 241227
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
427 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system is currently moving through the area. This
storm is wetter and will deliver high mountain snow and valley
rain with some remaining isolated pockets of freezing rain through
this morning. Record high temperatures may be possible both Sunday
and Monday. More fog and low clouds are expected next week as
high pressure builds back in over the region. A weak storm system
will affect the area mid- week then high pressure will return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Sunday: The main challenges will be pcpn amnts as
well as fog and/or stratus areal coverage for today...then
possible near record high temps for Sunday. We`re also dealing
with a lingering threat of light freezing rain in the E Slopes of
the Cascades valleys early this morning. Much of Ern Wa and N
Idaho remain under a canopy of low clouds and areas of fog,
topped by an expanding region of light pcpn tied to weak
isentropic ascent along a warm frontal boundary aloft. We don`t
expect a whole lot of pcpn from this warm frontal lift and, with
the warm advection, snow levelS will remain above the valley
floors...and even most mtn elevations...across N Id and Extreme
Ern Wa. Westerly flow will also keep light rain limited to cities
near the Cascade crest such as Stehekin and Lake Wenatchee this
morning. Both of these sites are above freezing, but Mazama
remains around 31-32F...favorable for a freezing rain threat.
Rapid height rises aloft accompanying a quickly strengthening
upper ridge tonight an Sunday will lead to a dry fcst and, as
800-850mb temps warm considerably, those sites that mix (non-deep
valley sites) will likely see record or near record high temps
Sunday across SE Washington and adjacent parts of N Idaho. Towns
close to the Cascades and in the Nrn Wa valleys likely won`t mix
and could remain under fog and/or low clouds. bz

Sunday night through Friday: This upcoming week will be rather
quiet weather wise with a strong ridge of high pressure in place
that does not want to go anywhere. Monday will continue to be very
mild with 850 mb temps up around 10 Celsius across south-central
WA, southeastern WA and into the southern and central portions of
the ID Panhandle. Although mixing will be limited, I expect
temperatures across these areas to feel quite mild and more of
what is expected for early spring than late winter. There is a
good chance that high temperatures at Pomeroy, Pullman, Lewiston
and St. Maries will range in the mid to upper 50s on Monday. These
temperatures will be near to and could even break some high
temperature records for this date. A layer of low clouds and fog
across the northern portion of the forecast area is expected to
keep temperatures cooler, but will still be above normal.

Temperatures will not be as warm on Tuesday with an approaching
cold front spreading across some high clouds and cooling
temperatures aloft a little bit. This cold front may produce some
light precip across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, and
another weak wave will continue to bring a chance for some
precipitation on Thursday. Neither of these weather disturbance
look that significant. These fronts will result in a continued
cooling trend through the week with temperatures closer to
normal, but still warmer than what is usually felt for late
January. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Stratus and fog continue to be the main threat for all
TAF sites, especially KMWH and KEAT, and also the Spokane area
TAF sites. Light rain or drizzle from the low clouds remain in the
fcst for the Spokane area TAFs this morning before prolonged light
rain by midday tries to scatter out these mainly IFR decks. KPUW
and KLWS should have enough warm flow from the east that they rid
themselves of the low clouds and fog this morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane       43 40 47 33 47 33 / 60 10  0  0  0  0
Coeur d`Alene 43 40 47 35 50 33 / 70 20  0  0  0  0
Pullman       52 39 54 36 55 36 / 50 10  0  0  0  0
Lewiston      53 38 57 37 58 37 / 30  0  0  0  0  0
Colville      40 35 39 34 40 33 / 50 20  0  0  0 10
Sandpoint     44 37 45 34 46 32 / 90 40 10 10  0  0
Kellogg       40 37 47 38 51 36 / 90 50 10  0  0  0
Moses Lake    46 36 46 35 44 34 / 10  0  0  0  0  0
Wenatchee     44 37 45 34 39 35 / 10  0  0  0  0  0
Omak          39 34 41 32 37 32 / 20 10  0  0  0 10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 241227
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
427 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system is currently moving through the area. This
storm is wetter and will deliver high mountain snow and valley
rain with some remaining isolated pockets of freezing rain through
this morning. Record high temperatures may be possible both Sunday
and Monday. More fog and low clouds are expected next week as
high pressure builds back in over the region. A weak storm system
will affect the area mid- week then high pressure will return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Sunday: The main challenges will be pcpn amnts as
well as fog and/or stratus areal coverage for today...then
possible near record high temps for Sunday. We`re also dealing
with a lingering threat of light freezing rain in the E Slopes of
the Cascades valleys early this morning. Much of Ern Wa and N
Idaho remain under a canopy of low clouds and areas of fog,
topped by an expanding region of light pcpn tied to weak
isentropic ascent along a warm frontal boundary aloft. We don`t
expect a whole lot of pcpn from this warm frontal lift and, with
the warm advection, snow levelS will remain above the valley
floors...and even most mtn elevations...across N Id and Extreme
Ern Wa. Westerly flow will also keep light rain limited to cities
near the Cascade crest such as Stehekin and Lake Wenatchee this
morning. Both of these sites are above freezing, but Mazama
remains around 31-32F...favorable for a freezing rain threat.
Rapid height rises aloft accompanying a quickly strengthening
upper ridge tonight an Sunday will lead to a dry fcst and, as
800-850mb temps warm considerably, those sites that mix (non-deep
valley sites) will likely see record or near record high temps
Sunday across SE Washington and adjacent parts of N Idaho. Towns
close to the Cascades and in the Nrn Wa valleys likely won`t mix
and could remain under fog and/or low clouds. bz

Sunday night through Friday: This upcoming week will be rather
quiet weather wise with a strong ridge of high pressure in place
that does not want to go anywhere. Monday will continue to be very
mild with 850 mb temps up around 10 Celsius across south-central
WA, southeastern WA and into the southern and central portions of
the ID Panhandle. Although mixing will be limited, I expect
temperatures across these areas to feel quite mild and more of
what is expected for early spring than late winter. There is a
good chance that high temperatures at Pomeroy, Pullman, Lewiston
and St. Maries will range in the mid to upper 50s on Monday. These
temperatures will be near to and could even break some high
temperature records for this date. A layer of low clouds and fog
across the northern portion of the forecast area is expected to
keep temperatures cooler, but will still be above normal.

Temperatures will not be as warm on Tuesday with an approaching
cold front spreading across some high clouds and cooling
temperatures aloft a little bit. This cold front may produce some
light precip across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, and
another weak wave will continue to bring a chance for some
precipitation on Thursday. Neither of these weather disturbance
look that significant. These fronts will result in a continued
cooling trend through the week with temperatures closer to
normal, but still warmer than what is usually felt for late
January. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Stratus and fog continue to be the main threat for all
TAF sites, especially KMWH and KEAT, and also the Spokane area
TAF sites. Light rain or drizzle from the low clouds remain in the
fcst for the Spokane area TAFs this morning before prolonged light
rain by midday tries to scatter out these mainly IFR decks. KPUW
and KLWS should have enough warm flow from the east that they rid
themselves of the low clouds and fog this morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane       43 40 47 33 47 33 / 60 10  0  0  0  0
Coeur d`Alene 43 40 47 35 50 33 / 70 20  0  0  0  0
Pullman       52 39 54 36 55 36 / 50 10  0  0  0  0
Lewiston      53 38 57 37 58 37 / 30  0  0  0  0  0
Colville      40 35 39 34 40 33 / 50 20  0  0  0 10
Sandpoint     44 37 45 34 46 32 / 90 40 10 10  0  0
Kellogg       40 37 47 38 51 36 / 90 50 10  0  0  0
Moses Lake    46 36 46 35 44 34 / 10  0  0  0  0  0
Wenatchee     44 37 45 34 39 35 / 10  0  0  0  0  0
Omak          39 34 41 32 37 32 / 20 10  0  0  0 10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 241128
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL SHIFT NORTH
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY
AND MILD WEATHER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. WEAK FRONTS WILL REACH THE AREA
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF WRN
WA EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE
COAST EXTENDING INTO THE SW INTERIOR...PUGET SOUND AND THE CASCADES
AT 2 AM PST. WHILE THE LOWLANDS HAVE GENERALLY RECEIVED UNDER A
QUARTER INCH...THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS HAD 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THIS IS ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME RIVERS TO RISE FURTHER
BUT FLOODING IS STILL NOT EXPECTED. SEE THE HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR DETAILS.

THE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD TODAY LIFTING THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY NWD
ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF OVER THE S COAST/SW
INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON AND BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE FAR N INTERIOR
BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND SO IT SHOULD BE A CLOUDY YET MILD DAY TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE QUITE HIGH ABOVE 8000 FEET. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREATER
PUGET SOUND REGION WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S AND COULD COME CLOSE TO
OR SURPASS THE RECORD FOR THE DAY AT SOME LOCATIONS. THE RECORD FOR
SEA-TAC TODAY IS 58 SET IN 1995.

UPPER HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TONIGHT TO OVER 5750M AND THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LIGHT. MODELS SHOW WARMING ALOFT WHICH SHOULD
TRAP RESIDUAL MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOW LEVELS. AREAS OF FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND COULD BE
STUBBORN TO MIX OUT ACROSS THE SW INTERIOR/FAR S PUGET SOUND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MOST SPOTS WILL SEE PARTIAL AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND HIGHS
COULD REACH 60 IN SOME PLACES INCLUDING SEATTLE WHICH WOULD BE A
RECORD.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE PAC NW INTO MONDAY. FOGGY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE MORNING AS INVERSIONS
STRENGTHEN. OFFSHORE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO CLEAR OUT
MOISTURE SO FOG COULD AGAIN LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SW INTERIOR/S SOUND. OTHER AREAS WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY BY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE
LARGE RIDGE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ENCOUNTERING. POPS WERE TRIMMED BACK
WITH DRY WEATHER INDICATED FOR THE INTERIOR FROM ABOUT EVERETT SWD
FOR THE MORNING PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY.

THE GFS LIFTS A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THERE IS LITTLE QPF SHOWN BY THE
CANADIAN SO THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THURSDAY ALSO
LOOKS DRY ON MOST THE 00Z RUNS BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL BE
PASSING JUST N OF OUR AREA. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS GOING FOR
NOW BUT THE TREND IS STARTING TO LOOK DRIER FOR THESE TWO DAYS. MOST
MODELS AGREE ON A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE DRY AND CONTINUED MILD WEATHER. MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS THE PAST 6 HOURS WERE GENERALLY AROUND
1 INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE CASCADES OF KING AND
SNOHOMISH COUNTIES HAVE SEEN UP TO 2 INCHES. THIS IS ON TOP OF THE
2-3 INCHES THAT FELL ON THURSDAY. THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS CAUSING
SOME CONTINUED RISES ON A FEW RIVERS...MOSTLY IN THE SKOKOMISH AND
SNOQUALMIE RIVER BASINS. WHILE RIVERS WILL RUN HIGH TODAY...FLOODING
IS NOT ANTICIPATED. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATER TODAY WITH A PERIOD
OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH
MID WEEK WILL NOT BRING HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING TODAY. WEAK WARM FRONT
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA LIFTING NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. AIR MASS MOIST AND STABLE.

CEILINGS GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000 FOOT RANGE WITH AREAS OF
CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET AND VISIBILITIES 3-5SM IN LIGHT RAIN OR
FOG. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

KSEA...CEILINGS NEAR 500 FEET WITH VISIBILITIES 3-5SM AT TIMES IN
LIGHT RAIN OR FOG. SLOW IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS
RISING INTO THE 1000-2000 FOOT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. SOUTHERLY WIND 6 TO 10 KNOTS. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING LIGHT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON
TUESDAY.

WINDS HAVE EASED OVER MOST OF THE WATERS THIS MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. THE
SWELL WILL REMAIN ABOVE 10 FEET TODAY FOR THE INNER COASTAL WATERS
AND THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT AND THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS.

KING TIDES...THE HIGHEST HIGH TIDES OF THE YEAR...ARE OCCURRING. THE
FORECAST HIGH TIDES FOR SEATTLE THIS MORNING IS 13.2 FEET. MINOR
TIDAL OVERFLOW STARTS AT 13.5 FEET. SEA LEVEL PRESSURE REMAINS QUITE
HIGH...ABOVE 1025 MB. CURRENTLY THE TIDAL ANOMALY IS JUST A TENTH OF
A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED VALUES BUT WITH THE WINDS EASING IN ADDITION
TO THE HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE EXPECT THE ANOMALY TO TURN NEGATIVE
BEFORE HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING JUST BEFORE 8 AM. MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
IS NOT EXPECTED THIS MORNING. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT FOR
     HAZARDOUS SEAS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PUGET SOUND.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML











000
FXUS66 KSEW 241128
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL SHIFT NORTH
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY
AND MILD WEATHER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. WEAK FRONTS WILL REACH THE AREA
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF WRN
WA EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE
COAST EXTENDING INTO THE SW INTERIOR...PUGET SOUND AND THE CASCADES
AT 2 AM PST. WHILE THE LOWLANDS HAVE GENERALLY RECEIVED UNDER A
QUARTER INCH...THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS HAD 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THIS IS ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME RIVERS TO RISE FURTHER
BUT FLOODING IS STILL NOT EXPECTED. SEE THE HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR DETAILS.

THE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD TODAY LIFTING THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY NWD
ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF OVER THE S COAST/SW
INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON AND BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE FAR N INTERIOR
BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND SO IT SHOULD BE A CLOUDY YET MILD DAY TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE QUITE HIGH ABOVE 8000 FEET. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREATER
PUGET SOUND REGION WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S AND COULD COME CLOSE TO
OR SURPASS THE RECORD FOR THE DAY AT SOME LOCATIONS. THE RECORD FOR
SEA-TAC TODAY IS 58 SET IN 1995.

UPPER HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TONIGHT TO OVER 5750M AND THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LIGHT. MODELS SHOW WARMING ALOFT WHICH SHOULD
TRAP RESIDUAL MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOW LEVELS. AREAS OF FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND COULD BE
STUBBORN TO MIX OUT ACROSS THE SW INTERIOR/FAR S PUGET SOUND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MOST SPOTS WILL SEE PARTIAL AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND HIGHS
COULD REACH 60 IN SOME PLACES INCLUDING SEATTLE WHICH WOULD BE A
RECORD.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE PAC NW INTO MONDAY. FOGGY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE MORNING AS INVERSIONS
STRENGTHEN. OFFSHORE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO CLEAR OUT
MOISTURE SO FOG COULD AGAIN LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SW INTERIOR/S SOUND. OTHER AREAS WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY BY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE
LARGE RIDGE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ENCOUNTERING. POPS WERE TRIMMED BACK
WITH DRY WEATHER INDICATED FOR THE INTERIOR FROM ABOUT EVERETT SWD
FOR THE MORNING PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY.

THE GFS LIFTS A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THERE IS LITTLE QPF SHOWN BY THE
CANADIAN SO THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THURSDAY ALSO
LOOKS DRY ON MOST THE 00Z RUNS BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL BE
PASSING JUST N OF OUR AREA. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS GOING FOR
NOW BUT THE TREND IS STARTING TO LOOK DRIER FOR THESE TWO DAYS. MOST
MODELS AGREE ON A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE DRY AND CONTINUED MILD WEATHER. MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS THE PAST 6 HOURS WERE GENERALLY AROUND
1 INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE CASCADES OF KING AND
SNOHOMISH COUNTIES HAVE SEEN UP TO 2 INCHES. THIS IS ON TOP OF THE
2-3 INCHES THAT FELL ON THURSDAY. THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS CAUSING
SOME CONTINUED RISES ON A FEW RIVERS...MOSTLY IN THE SKOKOMISH AND
SNOQUALMIE RIVER BASINS. WHILE RIVERS WILL RUN HIGH TODAY...FLOODING
IS NOT ANTICIPATED. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATER TODAY WITH A PERIOD
OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH
MID WEEK WILL NOT BRING HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING TODAY. WEAK WARM FRONT
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA LIFTING NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. AIR MASS MOIST AND STABLE.

CEILINGS GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000 FOOT RANGE WITH AREAS OF
CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET AND VISIBILITIES 3-5SM IN LIGHT RAIN OR
FOG. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

KSEA...CEILINGS NEAR 500 FEET WITH VISIBILITIES 3-5SM AT TIMES IN
LIGHT RAIN OR FOG. SLOW IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS
RISING INTO THE 1000-2000 FOOT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. SOUTHERLY WIND 6 TO 10 KNOTS. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING LIGHT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON
TUESDAY.

WINDS HAVE EASED OVER MOST OF THE WATERS THIS MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. THE
SWELL WILL REMAIN ABOVE 10 FEET TODAY FOR THE INNER COASTAL WATERS
AND THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT AND THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS.

KING TIDES...THE HIGHEST HIGH TIDES OF THE YEAR...ARE OCCURRING. THE
FORECAST HIGH TIDES FOR SEATTLE THIS MORNING IS 13.2 FEET. MINOR
TIDAL OVERFLOW STARTS AT 13.5 FEET. SEA LEVEL PRESSURE REMAINS QUITE
HIGH...ABOVE 1025 MB. CURRENTLY THE TIDAL ANOMALY IS JUST A TENTH OF
A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED VALUES BUT WITH THE WINDS EASING IN ADDITION
TO THE HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE EXPECT THE ANOMALY TO TURN NEGATIVE
BEFORE HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING JUST BEFORE 8 AM. MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
IS NOT EXPECTED THIS MORNING. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT FOR
     HAZARDOUS SEAS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PUGET SOUND.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KOTX 241051
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
251 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system is currently moving through the area. This
storm is wetter and will deliver high mountain snow and valley
rain with some remaining isolated pockets of freezing rain through
this morning. Record high temperatures may be possible both Sunday
and Monday. More fog and low clouds are expected next week as
high pressure builds back in over the region. A weak storm system
will affect the area mid- week then high pressure will return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Sunday: The main challenges will be pcpn amnts as
well as fog and/or stratus areal coverage for today...then
possible near record high temps for Sunday. We`re also dealing
with a lingering threat of light freezing rain in the E Slopes of
the Cascades valleys early this morning. Much of Ern Wa and N
Idaho remain under a canopy of low clouds and areas of fog,
topped by an expanding region of light pcpn tied to weak
isentropic ascent along a warm frontal boundary aloft. We don`t
expect a whole lot of pcpn from this warm frontal lift and, with
the warm advection, snow levelS will remain above the valley
floors...and even most mtn elevations...across N Id and Extreme
Ern Wa. Westerly flow will also keep light rain limited to cities
near the Cascade crest such as Stehekin and Lake Wenatchee this
morning. Both of these sites are above freezing, but Mazama
remains around 31-32F...favorable for a freezing rain threat.
Rapid height rises aloft accompanying a quickly strengthening
upper ridge tonight an Sunday will lead to a dry fcst and, as
800-850mb temps warm considerably, those sites that mix (non-deep
valley sites) will likely see record or near record high temps
Sunday across SE Washington and adjacent parts of N Idaho. Towns
close to the Cascades and in the Nrn Wa valleys likely won`t mix
and could remain under fog and/or low clouds. bz

Sunday night through Friday: This upcoming week will be rather
quiet weather wise with a strong ridge of high pressure in place
that does not want to go anywhere. Monday will continue to be very
mild with 850 mb temps up around 10 Celsius across south-central
WA, southeastern WA and into the southern and central portions of
the ID Panhandle. Although mixing will be limited, I expect
temperatures across these areas to feel quite mild and more of
what is expected for early spring than late winter. There is a
good chance that high temperatures at Pomeroy, Pullman, Lewiston
and St. Maries will range in the mid to upper 50s on Monday. These
temperatures will be near to and could even break some high
temperature records for this date. A layer of low clouds and fog
across the northern portion of the forecast area is expected to
keep temperatures cooler, but will still be above normal.

Temperatures will not be as warm on Tuesday with an approaching
cold front spreading across some high clouds and cooling
temperatures aloft a little bit. This cold front may produce some
light precip across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, and
another weak wave will continue to bring a chance for some
precipitation on Thursday. Neither of these weather disturbance
look that significant. These fronts will result in a continued
cooling trend through the week with temperatures closer to
normal, but still warmer than what is usually felt for late
January. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Some LLWS remains mentioned for KLWS and KEAT as robust
and moist upper level flow overruns a very moist later of air near
the surface. Stratus and fog remain mentioned in various
shape/form primarily over the basin and some northern valleys
while some locations further west such as KPUW and KLWS and points
to their south and east had enough warm flow from the east that
they rid themselves of the low clouds and fog rather early today
and should continue to stay that way. Some precipitation,
primarily rain for lower aviation areas, remains in the forecast
due to the persistence of the upper level moisture stream
remaining in such close proximity for the next 24 hours. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  40  47  33  47  33 /  60  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  42  40  48  35  50  33 /  70  20   0   0   0   0
Pullman        52  39  54  36  55  36 /  50  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       53  38  57  37  58  37 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       38  35  39  34  40  33 /  50  20   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      39  37  45  34  46  32 /  90  40  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        40  37  49  38  51  36 /  90  50  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     49  36  46  35  44  34 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      46  37  46  34  39  35 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           41  34  41  32  37  32 /  20  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 241051
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
251 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system is currently moving through the area. This
storm is wetter and will deliver high mountain snow and valley
rain with some remaining isolated pockets of freezing rain through
this morning. Record high temperatures may be possible both Sunday
and Monday. More fog and low clouds are expected next week as
high pressure builds back in over the region. A weak storm system
will affect the area mid- week then high pressure will return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Sunday: The main challenges will be pcpn amnts as
well as fog and/or stratus areal coverage for today...then
possible near record high temps for Sunday. We`re also dealing
with a lingering threat of light freezing rain in the E Slopes of
the Cascades valleys early this morning. Much of Ern Wa and N
Idaho remain under a canopy of low clouds and areas of fog,
topped by an expanding region of light pcpn tied to weak
isentropic ascent along a warm frontal boundary aloft. We don`t
expect a whole lot of pcpn from this warm frontal lift and, with
the warm advection, snow levelS will remain above the valley
floors...and even most mtn elevations...across N Id and Extreme
Ern Wa. Westerly flow will also keep light rain limited to cities
near the Cascade crest such as Stehekin and Lake Wenatchee this
morning. Both of these sites are above freezing, but Mazama
remains around 31-32F...favorable for a freezing rain threat.
Rapid height rises aloft accompanying a quickly strengthening
upper ridge tonight an Sunday will lead to a dry fcst and, as
800-850mb temps warm considerably, those sites that mix (non-deep
valley sites) will likely see record or near record high temps
Sunday across SE Washington and adjacent parts of N Idaho. Towns
close to the Cascades and in the Nrn Wa valleys likely won`t mix
and could remain under fog and/or low clouds. bz

Sunday night through Friday: This upcoming week will be rather
quiet weather wise with a strong ridge of high pressure in place
that does not want to go anywhere. Monday will continue to be very
mild with 850 mb temps up around 10 Celsius across south-central
WA, southeastern WA and into the southern and central portions of
the ID Panhandle. Although mixing will be limited, I expect
temperatures across these areas to feel quite mild and more of
what is expected for early spring than late winter. There is a
good chance that high temperatures at Pomeroy, Pullman, Lewiston
and St. Maries will range in the mid to upper 50s on Monday. These
temperatures will be near to and could even break some high
temperature records for this date. A layer of low clouds and fog
across the northern portion of the forecast area is expected to
keep temperatures cooler, but will still be above normal.

Temperatures will not be as warm on Tuesday with an approaching
cold front spreading across some high clouds and cooling
temperatures aloft a little bit. This cold front may produce some
light precip across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, and
another weak wave will continue to bring a chance for some
precipitation on Thursday. Neither of these weather disturbance
look that significant. These fronts will result in a continued
cooling trend through the week with temperatures closer to
normal, but still warmer than what is usually felt for late
January. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Some LLWS remains mentioned for KLWS and KEAT as robust
and moist upper level flow overruns a very moist later of air near
the surface. Stratus and fog remain mentioned in various
shape/form primarily over the basin and some northern valleys
while some locations further west such as KPUW and KLWS and points
to their south and east had enough warm flow from the east that
they rid themselves of the low clouds and fog rather early today
and should continue to stay that way. Some precipitation,
primarily rain for lower aviation areas, remains in the forecast
due to the persistence of the upper level moisture stream
remaining in such close proximity for the next 24 hours. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  40  47  33  47  33 /  60  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  42  40  48  35  50  33 /  70  20   0   0   0   0
Pullman        52  39  54  36  55  36 /  50  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       53  38  57  37  58  37 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       38  35  39  34  40  33 /  50  20   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      39  37  45  34  46  32 /  90  40  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        40  37  49  38  51  36 /  90  50  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     49  36  46  35  44  34 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      46  37  46  34  39  35 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           41  34  41  32  37  32 /  20  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 241051
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
251 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system is currently moving through the area. This
storm is wetter and will deliver high mountain snow and valley
rain with some remaining isolated pockets of freezing rain through
this morning. Record high temperatures may be possible both Sunday
and Monday. More fog and low clouds are expected next week as
high pressure builds back in over the region. A weak storm system
will affect the area mid- week then high pressure will return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Sunday: The main challenges will be pcpn amnts as
well as fog and/or stratus areal coverage for today...then
possible near record high temps for Sunday. We`re also dealing
with a lingering threat of light freezing rain in the E Slopes of
the Cascades valleys early this morning. Much of Ern Wa and N
Idaho remain under a canopy of low clouds and areas of fog,
topped by an expanding region of light pcpn tied to weak
isentropic ascent along a warm frontal boundary aloft. We don`t
expect a whole lot of pcpn from this warm frontal lift and, with
the warm advection, snow levelS will remain above the valley
floors...and even most mtn elevations...across N Id and Extreme
Ern Wa. Westerly flow will also keep light rain limited to cities
near the Cascade crest such as Stehekin and Lake Wenatchee this
morning. Both of these sites are above freezing, but Mazama
remains around 31-32F...favorable for a freezing rain threat.
Rapid height rises aloft accompanying a quickly strengthening
upper ridge tonight an Sunday will lead to a dry fcst and, as
800-850mb temps warm considerably, those sites that mix (non-deep
valley sites) will likely see record or near record high temps
Sunday across SE Washington and adjacent parts of N Idaho. Towns
close to the Cascades and in the Nrn Wa valleys likely won`t mix
and could remain under fog and/or low clouds. bz

Sunday night through Friday: This upcoming week will be rather
quiet weather wise with a strong ridge of high pressure in place
that does not want to go anywhere. Monday will continue to be very
mild with 850 mb temps up around 10 Celsius across south-central
WA, southeastern WA and into the southern and central portions of
the ID Panhandle. Although mixing will be limited, I expect
temperatures across these areas to feel quite mild and more of
what is expected for early spring than late winter. There is a
good chance that high temperatures at Pomeroy, Pullman, Lewiston
and St. Maries will range in the mid to upper 50s on Monday. These
temperatures will be near to and could even break some high
temperature records for this date. A layer of low clouds and fog
across the northern portion of the forecast area is expected to
keep temperatures cooler, but will still be above normal.

Temperatures will not be as warm on Tuesday with an approaching
cold front spreading across some high clouds and cooling
temperatures aloft a little bit. This cold front may produce some
light precip across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, and
another weak wave will continue to bring a chance for some
precipitation on Thursday. Neither of these weather disturbance
look that significant. These fronts will result in a continued
cooling trend through the week with temperatures closer to
normal, but still warmer than what is usually felt for late
January. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Some LLWS remains mentioned for KLWS and KEAT as robust
and moist upper level flow overruns a very moist later of air near
the surface. Stratus and fog remain mentioned in various
shape/form primarily over the basin and some northern valleys
while some locations further west such as KPUW and KLWS and points
to their south and east had enough warm flow from the east that
they rid themselves of the low clouds and fog rather early today
and should continue to stay that way. Some precipitation,
primarily rain for lower aviation areas, remains in the forecast
due to the persistence of the upper level moisture stream
remaining in such close proximity for the next 24 hours. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  40  47  33  47  33 /  60  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  42  40  48  35  50  33 /  70  20   0   0   0   0
Pullman        52  39  54  36  55  36 /  50  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       53  38  57  37  58  37 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       38  35  39  34  40  33 /  50  20   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      39  37  45  34  46  32 /  90  40  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        40  37  49  38  51  36 /  90  50  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     49  36  46  35  44  34 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      46  37  46  34  39  35 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           41  34  41  32  37  32 /  20  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 241051
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
251 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system is currently moving through the area. This
storm is wetter and will deliver high mountain snow and valley
rain with some remaining isolated pockets of freezing rain through
this morning. Record high temperatures may be possible both Sunday
and Monday. More fog and low clouds are expected next week as
high pressure builds back in over the region. A weak storm system
will affect the area mid- week then high pressure will return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Sunday: The main challenges will be pcpn amnts as
well as fog and/or stratus areal coverage for today...then
possible near record high temps for Sunday. We`re also dealing
with a lingering threat of light freezing rain in the E Slopes of
the Cascades valleys early this morning. Much of Ern Wa and N
Idaho remain under a canopy of low clouds and areas of fog,
topped by an expanding region of light pcpn tied to weak
isentropic ascent along a warm frontal boundary aloft. We don`t
expect a whole lot of pcpn from this warm frontal lift and, with
the warm advection, snow levelS will remain above the valley
floors...and even most mtn elevations...across N Id and Extreme
Ern Wa. Westerly flow will also keep light rain limited to cities
near the Cascade crest such as Stehekin and Lake Wenatchee this
morning. Both of these sites are above freezing, but Mazama
remains around 31-32F...favorable for a freezing rain threat.
Rapid height rises aloft accompanying a quickly strengthening
upper ridge tonight an Sunday will lead to a dry fcst and, as
800-850mb temps warm considerably, those sites that mix (non-deep
valley sites) will likely see record or near record high temps
Sunday across SE Washington and adjacent parts of N Idaho. Towns
close to the Cascades and in the Nrn Wa valleys likely won`t mix
and could remain under fog and/or low clouds. bz

Sunday night through Friday: This upcoming week will be rather
quiet weather wise with a strong ridge of high pressure in place
that does not want to go anywhere. Monday will continue to be very
mild with 850 mb temps up around 10 Celsius across south-central
WA, southeastern WA and into the southern and central portions of
the ID Panhandle. Although mixing will be limited, I expect
temperatures across these areas to feel quite mild and more of
what is expected for early spring than late winter. There is a
good chance that high temperatures at Pomeroy, Pullman, Lewiston
and St. Maries will range in the mid to upper 50s on Monday. These
temperatures will be near to and could even break some high
temperature records for this date. A layer of low clouds and fog
across the northern portion of the forecast area is expected to
keep temperatures cooler, but will still be above normal.

Temperatures will not be as warm on Tuesday with an approaching
cold front spreading across some high clouds and cooling
temperatures aloft a little bit. This cold front may produce some
light precip across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, and
another weak wave will continue to bring a chance for some
precipitation on Thursday. Neither of these weather disturbance
look that significant. These fronts will result in a continued
cooling trend through the week with temperatures closer to
normal, but still warmer than what is usually felt for late
January. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Some LLWS remains mentioned for KLWS and KEAT as robust
and moist upper level flow overruns a very moist later of air near
the surface. Stratus and fog remain mentioned in various
shape/form primarily over the basin and some northern valleys
while some locations further west such as KPUW and KLWS and points
to their south and east had enough warm flow from the east that
they rid themselves of the low clouds and fog rather early today
and should continue to stay that way. Some precipitation,
primarily rain for lower aviation areas, remains in the forecast
due to the persistence of the upper level moisture stream
remaining in such close proximity for the next 24 hours. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  40  47  33  47  33 /  60  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  42  40  48  35  50  33 /  70  20   0   0   0   0
Pullman        52  39  54  36  55  36 /  50  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       53  38  57  37  58  37 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       38  35  39  34  40  33 /  50  20   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      39  37  45  34  46  32 /  90  40  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        40  37  49  38  51  36 /  90  50  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     49  36  46  35  44  34 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      46  37  46  34  39  35 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           41  34  41  32  37  32 /  20  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 241031
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE NORTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH WA AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENS. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. INLAND VALLEYS WILL BE TRAPPED UNDER STRONG
INVERSIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS APPEAR POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...LOW LEVEL MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUED TO RESULT IN
SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR INDICATED MOST OF THE
RAIN HAD RETREATED UP INTO WA...ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS
CONTINUED DOWN INTO THE N OREGON COAST RANGE AND CASCADES.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS BEST SEEN AROUND THE 290K ISENTROPE IN MODEL
DEPICTIONS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
CONSIDERABLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE REGION THE MOISTURE AND
LIFT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FURTHER N TODAY. MODELS SUGGESTED MOST OF
THE RAIN WILL COME TO AN END LATER THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH A SMALL
CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND INTO THE AFTERNOON N OF
THE COLUMBIA RIVER. PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH A LIGHT SE OFFSHORE FLOW THOUGH AND LESS THAN IDEAL
CONDITIONS TO RADIATIVE FOG...EXPECT FOG TO NOT BECOME WIDESPREAD
AND LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO THE MORNING HOURS TODAY. BETTER
CONDITIONS TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL COME SUN AND MON AS THE RIDGE
ALOFT STRENGTHENS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS RELATIVELY LIGHT OFFSHORE BUT LIKELY WITHOUT THE S COMPONENT
TO THE WIND. THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST PERSISTENT AND
WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SUN AND MON...ALTHOUGH FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO NOT NECESSARILY INFER THAT THE CLOUDS AND FOG WOULD
LAST ALL DAY.

TEMPS WILL BE THE MORE INTRIGUING AND DIFFICULT APSECT TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN TODAY AND SUN
TEMPS ALOFT WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY. WITHOUT THE EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG TODAY SHOULD POTENTIALLY BE A MILD DAY FOR MOST AREAS. SUN
HOWEVER...WITH MORE CLOUDS AND FOG EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS SHOULD
SEE COOLER TEMPS...WHILE THE COAST AND NOT TOO MUCH HIGHER UP INTO
THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWNRIGHT TOASTY...AT
LEAST FOR JANUARY. EC NAM AND GFS ALL INDICATE H8 TEMPS PEAKING SUN
IN THE 15 TO 17 DEG C RANGE FOR NW OREGON...OF WHICH THERE HAVE ONLY
BEEN A FEW JANUARY DAYS SO WARM AT H8 SINCE THE 1950S WHEN UPPER AIR
RECORDS ARE FIRST AVAILABLE. SO...EXPECT 60S TO BE FAIRLY
COMMONPLACE FOR HIGH TEMPS SUN ALONG THE COAST AND UP IN THE COAST
RANGE AND CASCADES. SIMILARLY...LOW TEMPS SUN AND MON MORNING
EXPECTED TO BE MILD ABOVE THE INVERSION IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS WELL E OF THE REGION MON H8 TEMPS
WILL MODIFY DOWN SOME. BY MON AFTERNOON MODELS GENERALLY HAVE H8
TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 10 C...MEANING AREAS ABOVE THE INVERSIONS WILL
STILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE...BUT NOT SO OUTRAGEOUSLY SO AS SUN.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO STICK AROUND
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...AS THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH. BUMPED UP THE POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR A CHANCE
OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH ON
LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY AND IS THE MOST PROMISING CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...BUT DETAILS ARE STILL A BIT SKETCHY. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO REBUILD LATE NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE
RETURN OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...AND BENIGN CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE
TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS. /64
&&


.AVIATION...PRIMARILY MVFR OR BETTER ACROSS THE TAF TERMINALS
EXCEPT IFR VSBYS AND OCCASIONAL CIGS AT KHIO AND KAST.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD PUSH ANY REMAINING RAIN
THREAT NORTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH KAST HOLDING ON TO THE THREAT
LONGEST TODAY. STILL HAVE A THREAT FOR PREVAILING IFR OR POSSIBLE
LIFR VSBYS/CIGS DEVELOPING AT KEUG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TO SEE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL SEE
A BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING UNDER A LOW
STRATUS/FOG DECK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR
A FAIRLY SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION WITH A TOP AROUND 800 TO 1000
FEET MSL.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS BOUNCE AROUND 3000 FT THROUGH 19Z PER
LAMP GUIDANCE AND WILL GO WITH THAT AS IT HAS PERFORMED
REASONABLY WELL OVER THE LAST 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEN EXPECT CIGS TO
EVENTUALLY LIFT ABOVE 4000 FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
REMAIN SO WELL OVERNIGHT. AFTER 25/06Z...GIVE ABOUT A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AN IFR DECK TO DEVELOP WITHIN 20NM OF THE FIELD AND
PERHAPS LIMIT VISUAL APPROACHES THROUGH TERRAIN OBSCURATION.
/JBONK

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE RAPIDLY DROPPED OFF PER SURFACE AND SATELLITE
DERIVED OBSERVATIONS AND HAVE DECIDED TO DROP THE ADVISORY FOR
WINDS AT THIS TIME. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS THE REGION. A SURFACE LOW
WILL SLIDE NORTH BUT WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
COULD BRING ANOTHER THREAT OF MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...NEXT THREAT WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL PERHAPS A
WEEK FROM NOW AS A SUMMERTIME LIKE THERMAL TROUGH MAY SET UP ALONG
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST FOR SOME GUSTY NORTHERLIES.

SEAS HAVE BRIEFLY PEAKED AROUND 13 FT BUT HAVE ALREADY DROPPED OFF
A FOOT OR TWO GIVEN THE LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED WINDS. STILL EXPECT
COMBINED SEAS TO REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 11 FEET WITH THE CENTRAL
WATERS DROPPING BELOW AROUND SUNSET TODAY AND THE NORTHERN WATERS
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK WITH SEAS 7 TO 9 FT
LATE TONIGHT AND THEN CREEPING BACK UP TO AROUND 10 FT UNDER
ANOTHER WESTERLY SWELL FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SEAS THEN
REMAIN WELL UNDER 10 FEET FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK BUT DO START TO
SEE A ROBUST MIXED SWELL FORT HE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 PM PST
     THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 240527
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
926 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system is currently moving through the area. This
storm is wetter and will deliver mountain snow and valley rain
with some remaining isolated pockets of freezing rain through
Saturday morning. More fog and low clouds are expected next week
as high pressure builds back in over the region. A weak storm
system will affect the area mid-week then high pressure will
return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another evening update to add a bit more fog into the early
evening part of the foreast and to decrease the precipitation
amounts forecast tonight as the westerly flow aloft seems to be
winning out as far as keeping substantial precipitation from
falling over most sites, yet light precipitation is falling so the
pops have not been changed much. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Some LLWS remains mentioned for KLWS and KEAT as robust
and moist upper level flow overruns a very moist later of air near
the surface. Stratus and fog remain mentioned in various
shape/form primarily over the basin and some northern valleys
while some locations further west such as KPUW and KLWS and points
to their south and east had enough warm flow from the east that
they rid themselves of the low clouds and fog rather early today
and should continue to stay that way. Some precipitation,
primarily rain for lower aviation areas, remains in the forecast
due to the persistence of the upper level moisture stream
remaining in such close proximity for the next 24 hours. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  42  40  47  33  48 / 100  40  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  36  42  40  48  35  50 / 100  60  20   0   0   0
Pullman        40  52  39  54  36  55 /  70  20  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       43  53  38  57  37  58 /  60  20   0   0   0   0
Colville       34  38  35  39  34  43 / 100  50  20   0   0   0
Sandpoint      35  39  37  45  34  46 / 100  70  30  10   0   0
Kellogg        35  40  37  49  38  51 / 100  70  30  10   0   0
Moses Lake     33  49  36  46  35  48 /  40  20   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      35  46  37  46  35  45 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           33  41  34  41  33  44 /  30  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 240527
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
926 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system is currently moving through the area. This
storm is wetter and will deliver mountain snow and valley rain
with some remaining isolated pockets of freezing rain through
Saturday morning. More fog and low clouds are expected next week
as high pressure builds back in over the region. A weak storm
system will affect the area mid-week then high pressure will
return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another evening update to add a bit more fog into the early
evening part of the foreast and to decrease the precipitation
amounts forecast tonight as the westerly flow aloft seems to be
winning out as far as keeping substantial precipitation from
falling over most sites, yet light precipitation is falling so the
pops have not been changed much. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Some LLWS remains mentioned for KLWS and KEAT as robust
and moist upper level flow overruns a very moist later of air near
the surface. Stratus and fog remain mentioned in various
shape/form primarily over the basin and some northern valleys
while some locations further west such as KPUW and KLWS and points
to their south and east had enough warm flow from the east that
they rid themselves of the low clouds and fog rather early today
and should continue to stay that way. Some precipitation,
primarily rain for lower aviation areas, remains in the forecast
due to the persistence of the upper level moisture stream
remaining in such close proximity for the next 24 hours. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  42  40  47  33  48 / 100  40  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  36  42  40  48  35  50 / 100  60  20   0   0   0
Pullman        40  52  39  54  36  55 /  70  20  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       43  53  38  57  37  58 /  60  20   0   0   0   0
Colville       34  38  35  39  34  43 / 100  50  20   0   0   0
Sandpoint      35  39  37  45  34  46 / 100  70  30  10   0   0
Kellogg        35  40  37  49  38  51 / 100  70  30  10   0   0
Moses Lake     33  49  36  46  35  48 /  40  20   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      35  46  37  46  35  45 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           33  41  34  41  33  44 /  30  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 240513
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
920 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL SHIFT NORTH
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE
DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WEAK FRONTS WILL
REACH THE AREA LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24HRS HAS BEEN AROUND 3 INCHES
OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE OLYMPICS. RAINFALL IN THE CASCADES HAS
BEEN IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL CASCADES...THAT
IS PRETTY WET AND THE RIVERS ARE RISING BUT THE RAIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING WILL DRY UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM
ADVECTION PRECIP SHIFTS NORTH INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED. THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER WILL SHIFT FROM JUST OFF NRN CALIF
TONIGHT TO SRN IDAHO LATER THIS WEEKEND. THE AIR WILL WARM AND DRY
LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THE FORECAST SHOWS CLEARING AND
MILD DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS SAT THROUGH MON.

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A VERY WEAK FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARM
THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO SNOW LEVELS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH...6000 FEET ON TUESDAY FALLING TO AROUND 4000 FEET BY
THURSDAY. IF YOU LIKE RIDGES AND MILD WEATHER THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR A REDEVELOPING RIDGE
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW
AND QUITE MILD CONDITIONS FOR LATE JANUARY. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24HRS IS FILLING UP MANY OF THE
WRN WA RIVERS ONCE AGAIN. RAIN HAS INCREASED OVER THE SW PORTION OF
THE OLYMPICS AGAIN WHERE RATES ARE AROUND 0.2 AN HOUR THIS EVENING.
THE MOST FLOOD PRONE SKOKOMISH RIVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE BUT IT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING THE GAGE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT THEN MOVE NORTH ON SATURDAY
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. AIR MASS MOIST AND STABLE.

CEILINGS GENERALLY IN THE 1500-2500 FOOT RANGE THIS EVENING WITH
AREAS OF VISIBILITY 3-5SM IN LIGHT RAIN AND FOG AND ISOLATED
CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SECONDARY
IMPULSE JUST OFFSHORE THAT WILE MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT KEEPING THE
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY ARE NOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
DETERIORATION IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. SLOW IMPROVEMENT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SIGNIFICANT CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA.

KSEA...DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. MAINLY MVFR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WIND 6-12 KT. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL MOVE NORTH ON
SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING LIGHT OFFSHORE
ON SUNDAY. THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES OVER ALL
WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL EASE ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY.
A WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY.

KING TIDES...THE HIGHEST HIGH TIDES OF THE YEAR...ARE OCCURRING. THE
FORECAST HIGH TIDES FOR SEATTLE THIS MORNING AND SATURDAY MORNING
ARE 13.2 FEET. MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW STARTS AT 13.5 FEET. SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE WAS QUITE HIGH THIS MORNING...AROUND 1030 MB...WITH LIGHT
WINDS. THIS GAVE A NEGATIVE TIDAL ANOMALY OF 0.8 FEET DURING THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE AT 710 AM FRIDAY MORNING. THE HIGH TIDE ENDED UP
BEING ONLY 12.4 FEET.

SIMILAR METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SATURDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE AT 750 AM. THERE WILL BE A NEGATIVE TIDAL ANOMALY
AND THE UPSHOT IS MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW IS NOT EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
EITHER. CHB/FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KSEW 240513
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
920 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL SHIFT NORTH
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE
DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WEAK FRONTS WILL
REACH THE AREA LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24HRS HAS BEEN AROUND 3 INCHES
OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE OLYMPICS. RAINFALL IN THE CASCADES HAS
BEEN IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL CASCADES...THAT
IS PRETTY WET AND THE RIVERS ARE RISING BUT THE RAIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING WILL DRY UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM
ADVECTION PRECIP SHIFTS NORTH INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED. THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER WILL SHIFT FROM JUST OFF NRN CALIF
TONIGHT TO SRN IDAHO LATER THIS WEEKEND. THE AIR WILL WARM AND DRY
LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THE FORECAST SHOWS CLEARING AND
MILD DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS SAT THROUGH MON.

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A VERY WEAK FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARM
THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO SNOW LEVELS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH...6000 FEET ON TUESDAY FALLING TO AROUND 4000 FEET BY
THURSDAY. IF YOU LIKE RIDGES AND MILD WEATHER THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR A REDEVELOPING RIDGE
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW
AND QUITE MILD CONDITIONS FOR LATE JANUARY. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24HRS IS FILLING UP MANY OF THE
WRN WA RIVERS ONCE AGAIN. RAIN HAS INCREASED OVER THE SW PORTION OF
THE OLYMPICS AGAIN WHERE RATES ARE AROUND 0.2 AN HOUR THIS EVENING.
THE MOST FLOOD PRONE SKOKOMISH RIVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE BUT IT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING THE GAGE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT THEN MOVE NORTH ON SATURDAY
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. AIR MASS MOIST AND STABLE.

CEILINGS GENERALLY IN THE 1500-2500 FOOT RANGE THIS EVENING WITH
AREAS OF VISIBILITY 3-5SM IN LIGHT RAIN AND FOG AND ISOLATED
CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SECONDARY
IMPULSE JUST OFFSHORE THAT WILE MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT KEEPING THE
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY ARE NOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
DETERIORATION IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. SLOW IMPROVEMENT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SIGNIFICANT CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA.

KSEA...DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. MAINLY MVFR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WIND 6-12 KT. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL MOVE NORTH ON
SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING LIGHT OFFSHORE
ON SUNDAY. THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES OVER ALL
WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL EASE ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY.
A WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY.

KING TIDES...THE HIGHEST HIGH TIDES OF THE YEAR...ARE OCCURRING. THE
FORECAST HIGH TIDES FOR SEATTLE THIS MORNING AND SATURDAY MORNING
ARE 13.2 FEET. MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW STARTS AT 13.5 FEET. SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE WAS QUITE HIGH THIS MORNING...AROUND 1030 MB...WITH LIGHT
WINDS. THIS GAVE A NEGATIVE TIDAL ANOMALY OF 0.8 FEET DURING THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE AT 710 AM FRIDAY MORNING. THE HIGH TIDE ENDED UP
BEING ONLY 12.4 FEET.

SIMILAR METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SATURDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE AT 750 AM. THERE WILL BE A NEGATIVE TIDAL ANOMALY
AND THE UPSHOT IS MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW IS NOT EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
EITHER. CHB/FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KSEW 240513
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
920 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL SHIFT NORTH
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE
DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WEAK FRONTS WILL
REACH THE AREA LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24HRS HAS BEEN AROUND 3 INCHES
OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE OLYMPICS. RAINFALL IN THE CASCADES HAS
BEEN IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL CASCADES...THAT
IS PRETTY WET AND THE RIVERS ARE RISING BUT THE RAIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING WILL DRY UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM
ADVECTION PRECIP SHIFTS NORTH INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED. THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER WILL SHIFT FROM JUST OFF NRN CALIF
TONIGHT TO SRN IDAHO LATER THIS WEEKEND. THE AIR WILL WARM AND DRY
LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THE FORECAST SHOWS CLEARING AND
MILD DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS SAT THROUGH MON.

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A VERY WEAK FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARM
THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO SNOW LEVELS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH...6000 FEET ON TUESDAY FALLING TO AROUND 4000 FEET BY
THURSDAY. IF YOU LIKE RIDGES AND MILD WEATHER THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR A REDEVELOPING RIDGE
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW
AND QUITE MILD CONDITIONS FOR LATE JANUARY. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24HRS IS FILLING UP MANY OF THE
WRN WA RIVERS ONCE AGAIN. RAIN HAS INCREASED OVER THE SW PORTION OF
THE OLYMPICS AGAIN WHERE RATES ARE AROUND 0.2 AN HOUR THIS EVENING.
THE MOST FLOOD PRONE SKOKOMISH RIVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE BUT IT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING THE GAGE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT THEN MOVE NORTH ON SATURDAY
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. AIR MASS MOIST AND STABLE.

CEILINGS GENERALLY IN THE 1500-2500 FOOT RANGE THIS EVENING WITH
AREAS OF VISIBILITY 3-5SM IN LIGHT RAIN AND FOG AND ISOLATED
CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SECONDARY
IMPULSE JUST OFFSHORE THAT WILE MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT KEEPING THE
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY ARE NOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
DETERIORATION IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. SLOW IMPROVEMENT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SIGNIFICANT CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA.

KSEA...DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. MAINLY MVFR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WIND 6-12 KT. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL MOVE NORTH ON
SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING LIGHT OFFSHORE
ON SUNDAY. THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES OVER ALL
WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL EASE ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY.
A WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY.

KING TIDES...THE HIGHEST HIGH TIDES OF THE YEAR...ARE OCCURRING. THE
FORECAST HIGH TIDES FOR SEATTLE THIS MORNING AND SATURDAY MORNING
ARE 13.2 FEET. MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW STARTS AT 13.5 FEET. SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE WAS QUITE HIGH THIS MORNING...AROUND 1030 MB...WITH LIGHT
WINDS. THIS GAVE A NEGATIVE TIDAL ANOMALY OF 0.8 FEET DURING THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE AT 710 AM FRIDAY MORNING. THE HIGH TIDE ENDED UP
BEING ONLY 12.4 FEET.

SIMILAR METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SATURDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE AT 750 AM. THERE WILL BE A NEGATIVE TIDAL ANOMALY
AND THE UPSHOT IS MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW IS NOT EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
EITHER. CHB/FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KSEW 240513
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
920 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL SHIFT NORTH
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE
DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WEAK FRONTS WILL
REACH THE AREA LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24HRS HAS BEEN AROUND 3 INCHES
OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE OLYMPICS. RAINFALL IN THE CASCADES HAS
BEEN IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL CASCADES...THAT
IS PRETTY WET AND THE RIVERS ARE RISING BUT THE RAIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING WILL DRY UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM
ADVECTION PRECIP SHIFTS NORTH INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED. THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER WILL SHIFT FROM JUST OFF NRN CALIF
TONIGHT TO SRN IDAHO LATER THIS WEEKEND. THE AIR WILL WARM AND DRY
LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THE FORECAST SHOWS CLEARING AND
MILD DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS SAT THROUGH MON.

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A VERY WEAK FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARM
THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO SNOW LEVELS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH...6000 FEET ON TUESDAY FALLING TO AROUND 4000 FEET BY
THURSDAY. IF YOU LIKE RIDGES AND MILD WEATHER THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR A REDEVELOPING RIDGE
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW
AND QUITE MILD CONDITIONS FOR LATE JANUARY. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24HRS IS FILLING UP MANY OF THE
WRN WA RIVERS ONCE AGAIN. RAIN HAS INCREASED OVER THE SW PORTION OF
THE OLYMPICS AGAIN WHERE RATES ARE AROUND 0.2 AN HOUR THIS EVENING.
THE MOST FLOOD PRONE SKOKOMISH RIVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE BUT IT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING THE GAGE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT THEN MOVE NORTH ON SATURDAY
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. AIR MASS MOIST AND STABLE.

CEILINGS GENERALLY IN THE 1500-2500 FOOT RANGE THIS EVENING WITH
AREAS OF VISIBILITY 3-5SM IN LIGHT RAIN AND FOG AND ISOLATED
CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SECONDARY
IMPULSE JUST OFFSHORE THAT WILE MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT KEEPING THE
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY ARE NOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
DETERIORATION IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. SLOW IMPROVEMENT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SIGNIFICANT CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA.

KSEA...DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. MAINLY MVFR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WIND 6-12 KT. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL MOVE NORTH ON
SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING LIGHT OFFSHORE
ON SUNDAY. THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES OVER ALL
WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL EASE ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY.
A WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY.

KING TIDES...THE HIGHEST HIGH TIDES OF THE YEAR...ARE OCCURRING. THE
FORECAST HIGH TIDES FOR SEATTLE THIS MORNING AND SATURDAY MORNING
ARE 13.2 FEET. MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW STARTS AT 13.5 FEET. SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE WAS QUITE HIGH THIS MORNING...AROUND 1030 MB...WITH LIGHT
WINDS. THIS GAVE A NEGATIVE TIDAL ANOMALY OF 0.8 FEET DURING THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE AT 710 AM FRIDAY MORNING. THE HIGH TIDE ENDED UP
BEING ONLY 12.4 FEET.

SIMILAR METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SATURDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE AT 750 AM. THERE WILL BE A NEGATIVE TIDAL ANOMALY
AND THE UPSHOT IS MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW IS NOT EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
EITHER. CHB/FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KPQR 240459
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
858 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE NORTH TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENS. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND WILL RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INLAND VALLEYS
WILL BE TRAPPED UNDER STRONG INVERSIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS APPEAR POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY RETURN
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A MOSAIC OF DOPPLER RADAR
CONTINUE TO SHOW AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON. WEAKER AND MORE ISOLATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO NORTHWEST OREGON BRINGING ENOUGH RAIN TO WET THE GROUND
IN A FEW PLACES. ONCE THE ROUND OF RAIN PUSHING INTO PACIFIC AND
CLATSOP COUNTIES PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA...EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO BEGIN DROPPING CONSIDERABLY LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY
WHERE CURRENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR FIRST.

WHILE THERE IS A CHANCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE REGION. UNDER RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES...VALLEY FOG SHOULD FORM
READILY SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BE STUBBORN TO BURN OFF IN THE
VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING VALUES
OBSERVED ONCE EVERY 5 TO 30 YEARS DEPENDING ON LOCALE...SHOULD ALLOW
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ESPECIALLY THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES TO SEE
RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR THE DATE. 60S AND EVEN LOW 70S SHOULD BE
PREVALENT AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2K TO 3KFT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WHICH WILL COOL 850MB TEMPERATURES A BIT. THIS SHOULD NOT
IMPACT WILLAMETTE VALLEY TEMPERATURES ALL THAT MUCH...BUT COASTAL AND
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE SOME MODEST COOLING FOR MONDAY.

A SERIES OF DYING FRONTAL SYSTEMS MAY SLOWLY SAG INTO NORTHWEST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN. OTHERWISE...MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK. /NEUMAN



.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
LOOK TO STICK AROUND THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...AS THE FLOW
PATTERN BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. BUMPED UP THE POPS SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR A CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. A WEAK FRONT LOOKS
TO MOVE THROUGH ON LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY AND IS THE MOST
PROMISING CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...BUT DETAILS ARE
STILL A BIT SKETCHY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO REBUILD LATE
NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE RETURN OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...AND
BENIGN CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS. /64


&&


.AVIATION...A WEAKENING WARM FRONT BRUSHING THE NORTH COAST AND
NORTH INTERIOR WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BRING GRADUAL END TO PCPN AND DECREASE IN MOISTURE FEED INTO
THE AREA. ON THE COAST...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ON THE NORTH COAST
WHILE VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR PREVAILS. MODELS INDICATE NOT MUCH
CHANGE OVERNIGHT BUT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATER SAT MORNING TO
VFR. FOR INLAND AREAS NORTH OF ABOUT KSLE...MVFR CIGS AROUND
2500-3000 FT SHOULD REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO
TREND UPWARD AFTER 12Z-15Z SAT WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY 18Z
SAT. AREAS SOUTH OF KSLE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR TONIGHT AND
SAT. HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING EARLY SAT MORNING WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AND VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z SAT. MORE STABLE CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT WILL BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR FOG CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 2500-3000 FT
THROUGH 12Z SAT. AFTER THAT MODEL SOUNDINGS TREND CIGS UPWARD SO
EXPECT VFR CIGS AROUND 4000-5000 FEET THROUGH THE MORNING THEN
BEGIN CLEARING MID AFTERNOON.


&&


.MARINE...WARM FRONT HAS MOVED ONSHORE...AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. WINDS AROUND 15 TO 25 KT
OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NORTH OF
TILLAMOOK. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT WINDS SHOULD END FOR THE NORTH INNER WATERS EARLY
SATURDAY AND FOR THE NORTH OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY HAVE INCREASED AS EXPECTED AND 11 TO 13 FT
PRESENTLY. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE A LITTLE OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND
10 TO 12 FT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE DROPPING BELOW 10 FT LATE SUNDAY
OR EARLY MONDAY. -MCCOY /MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     10 PM PST SATURDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 240459
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
858 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE NORTH TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENS. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND WILL RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INLAND VALLEYS
WILL BE TRAPPED UNDER STRONG INVERSIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS APPEAR POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY RETURN
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A MOSAIC OF DOPPLER RADAR
CONTINUE TO SHOW AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON. WEAKER AND MORE ISOLATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO NORTHWEST OREGON BRINGING ENOUGH RAIN TO WET THE GROUND
IN A FEW PLACES. ONCE THE ROUND OF RAIN PUSHING INTO PACIFIC AND
CLATSOP COUNTIES PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA...EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO BEGIN DROPPING CONSIDERABLY LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY
WHERE CURRENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR FIRST.

WHILE THERE IS A CHANCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE REGION. UNDER RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES...VALLEY FOG SHOULD FORM
READILY SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BE STUBBORN TO BURN OFF IN THE
VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING VALUES
OBSERVED ONCE EVERY 5 TO 30 YEARS DEPENDING ON LOCALE...SHOULD ALLOW
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ESPECIALLY THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES TO SEE
RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR THE DATE. 60S AND EVEN LOW 70S SHOULD BE
PREVALENT AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2K TO 3KFT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WHICH WILL COOL 850MB TEMPERATURES A BIT. THIS SHOULD NOT
IMPACT WILLAMETTE VALLEY TEMPERATURES ALL THAT MUCH...BUT COASTAL AND
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE SOME MODEST COOLING FOR MONDAY.

A SERIES OF DYING FRONTAL SYSTEMS MAY SLOWLY SAG INTO NORTHWEST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN. OTHERWISE...MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK. /NEUMAN



.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
LOOK TO STICK AROUND THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...AS THE FLOW
PATTERN BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. BUMPED UP THE POPS SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR A CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. A WEAK FRONT LOOKS
TO MOVE THROUGH ON LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY AND IS THE MOST
PROMISING CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...BUT DETAILS ARE
STILL A BIT SKETCHY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO REBUILD LATE
NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE RETURN OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...AND
BENIGN CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS. /64


&&


.AVIATION...A WEAKENING WARM FRONT BRUSHING THE NORTH COAST AND
NORTH INTERIOR WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BRING GRADUAL END TO PCPN AND DECREASE IN MOISTURE FEED INTO
THE AREA. ON THE COAST...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ON THE NORTH COAST
WHILE VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR PREVAILS. MODELS INDICATE NOT MUCH
CHANGE OVERNIGHT BUT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATER SAT MORNING TO
VFR. FOR INLAND AREAS NORTH OF ABOUT KSLE...MVFR CIGS AROUND
2500-3000 FT SHOULD REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO
TREND UPWARD AFTER 12Z-15Z SAT WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY 18Z
SAT. AREAS SOUTH OF KSLE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR TONIGHT AND
SAT. HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING EARLY SAT MORNING WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AND VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z SAT. MORE STABLE CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT WILL BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR FOG CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 2500-3000 FT
THROUGH 12Z SAT. AFTER THAT MODEL SOUNDINGS TREND CIGS UPWARD SO
EXPECT VFR CIGS AROUND 4000-5000 FEET THROUGH THE MORNING THEN
BEGIN CLEARING MID AFTERNOON.


&&


.MARINE...WARM FRONT HAS MOVED ONSHORE...AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. WINDS AROUND 15 TO 25 KT
OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NORTH OF
TILLAMOOK. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT WINDS SHOULD END FOR THE NORTH INNER WATERS EARLY
SATURDAY AND FOR THE NORTH OUTER WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY HAVE INCREASED AS EXPECTED AND 11 TO 13 FT
PRESENTLY. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE A LITTLE OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND
10 TO 12 FT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE DROPPING BELOW 10 FT LATE SUNDAY
OR EARLY MONDAY. -MCCOY /MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST
     SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     10 PM PST SATURDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 240325
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
724 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system is currently moving through the area. This
storm is wetter and will deliver mountain snow and valley rain
with some remaining isolated pockets of freezing rain through
Saturday morning. More fog and low clouds are expected next week
as high pressure builds back in over the region. A weak storm
system will affect the area mid-week then high pressure will
return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another evening update to add a bit more fog into the early
evening part of the foreast and to decrease the precipitation
amounts forecast tonight as the westerly flow aloft seems to be
winning out as far as keeping substantial precipitation from
falling over most sites, yet light precipitation is falling so the
pops have not been changed much. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A very moist boundary layer will be overrun by another
round of precipitation this evening with very little mixing
occurring at the surface except btwn KPUW/KLWS. visibilities have
increased some this afternoon but cams from Deer Park suggest cigs
are lowering under the next band of precip so look for a
continuation of IFR/MVFR fog/stratus through much of the night
into Saturday. All terminals will remain warm enough to support
all rain as precip type. We have added low-level wind shear for
Wenatchee and Pullman which carry the best chance for 30-40 kts
of wind 2-3K ft AGL. Surface winds will finally increase over SE
WA overnight and bring a small potential for clearing to the
Spokane-CDA area by morning. Overall, confidence is low and opted
to keep some restrictions present. /sb


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  42  40  47  33  48 / 100  40  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  36  42  40  48  35  50 / 100  60  20   0   0   0
Pullman        40  52  39  54  36  55 /  70  20  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       43  53  38  57  37  58 /  60  20   0   0   0   0
Colville       34  38  35  39  34  43 / 100  50  20   0   0   0
Sandpoint      35  39  37  45  34  46 / 100  70  30  10   0   0
Kellogg        35  40  37  49  38  51 / 100  70  30  10   0   0
Moses Lake     33  49  36  46  35  48 /  40  20   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      35  46  37  46  35  45 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           33  41  34  41  33  44 /  30  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 240325
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
724 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system is currently moving through the area. This
storm is wetter and will deliver mountain snow and valley rain
with some remaining isolated pockets of freezing rain through
Saturday morning. More fog and low clouds are expected next week
as high pressure builds back in over the region. A weak storm
system will affect the area mid-week then high pressure will
return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another evening update to add a bit more fog into the early
evening part of the foreast and to decrease the precipitation
amounts forecast tonight as the westerly flow aloft seems to be
winning out as far as keeping substantial precipitation from
falling over most sites, yet light precipitation is falling so the
pops have not been changed much. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A very moist boundary layer will be overrun by another
round of precipitation this evening with very little mixing
occurring at the surface except btwn KPUW/KLWS. visibilities have
increased some this afternoon but cams from Deer Park suggest cigs
are lowering under the next band of precip so look for a
continuation of IFR/MVFR fog/stratus through much of the night
into Saturday. All terminals will remain warm enough to support
all rain as precip type. We have added low-level wind shear for
Wenatchee and Pullman which carry the best chance for 30-40 kts
of wind 2-3K ft AGL. Surface winds will finally increase over SE
WA overnight and bring a small potential for clearing to the
Spokane-CDA area by morning. Overall, confidence is low and opted
to keep some restrictions present. /sb


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  42  40  47  33  48 / 100  40  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  36  42  40  48  35  50 / 100  60  20   0   0   0
Pullman        40  52  39  54  36  55 /  70  20  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       43  53  38  57  37  58 /  60  20   0   0   0   0
Colville       34  38  35  39  34  43 / 100  50  20   0   0   0
Sandpoint      35  39  37  45  34  46 / 100  70  30  10   0   0
Kellogg        35  40  37  49  38  51 / 100  70  30  10   0   0
Moses Lake     33  49  36  46  35  48 /  40  20   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      35  46  37  46  35  45 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           33  41  34  41  33  44 /  30  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 240042
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
441 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system is currently moving through the area. This
storm is wetter and will deliver mountain snow and valley rain
with some pockets of freezing rain through Saturday morning. More
fog and low clouds are expected next week as high pressure builds
back in over the region. A weak storm system will affect the area
mid-week then high pressure will return.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update to cancel the freezing rain advisory. Strong
westerly flow across the Cascades is creating a rain shadow
despite the dome of cooler air still in the Methow Valley and lee
of the Cascades. Calls to Winthrop and Waterville, locations which
are last to warm above freezing this evening, indicated no
precipitation fell from the initial push of subtropical moisture
and with westerly flow to increase overnight, felt the threat has
diminished significantly.  /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A very moist boundary layer will be overrun by another
round of precipitation this evening with very little mixing
occurring at the surface except btwn KPUW/KLWS. visibilities have
increased some this afternoon but cams from Deer Park suggest cigs
are lowering under the next band of precip so look for a
continuation of IFR/MVFR fog/stratus through much of the night
into Saturday. All terminals will remain warm enough to support
all rain as precip type. We have added low-level wind shear for
Wenatchee and Pullman which carry the best chance for 30-40 kts
of wind 2-3K ft AGL. Surface winds will finally increase over SE
WA overnight and bring a small potential for clearing to the
Spokane-CDA area by morning. Overall, confidence is low and opted
to keep some restrictions present. /sb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  42  40  47  33  48 / 100  40  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  36  42  40  48  35  50 / 100  60  20   0   0   0
Pullman        40  52  39  54  36  55 /  70  20  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       43  53  38  57  37  58 /  60  20   0   0   0   0
Colville       34  38  35  39  34  43 / 100  50  20   0   0   0
Sandpoint      35  39  37  45  34  46 / 100  70  30  10   0   0
Kellogg        35  40  37  49  38  51 / 100  70  30  10   0   0
Moses Lake     33  49  36  46  35  48 /  40  20   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      35  46  37  46  35  45 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           33  41  34  41  33  44 /  30  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 240042
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
441 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system is currently moving through the area. This
storm is wetter and will deliver mountain snow and valley rain
with some pockets of freezing rain through Saturday morning. More
fog and low clouds are expected next week as high pressure builds
back in over the region. A weak storm system will affect the area
mid-week then high pressure will return.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update to cancel the freezing rain advisory. Strong
westerly flow across the Cascades is creating a rain shadow
despite the dome of cooler air still in the Methow Valley and lee
of the Cascades. Calls to Winthrop and Waterville, locations which
are last to warm above freezing this evening, indicated no
precipitation fell from the initial push of subtropical moisture
and with westerly flow to increase overnight, felt the threat has
diminished significantly.  /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A very moist boundary layer will be overrun by another
round of precipitation this evening with very little mixing
occurring at the surface except btwn KPUW/KLWS. visibilities have
increased some this afternoon but cams from Deer Park suggest cigs
are lowering under the next band of precip so look for a
continuation of IFR/MVFR fog/stratus through much of the night
into Saturday. All terminals will remain warm enough to support
all rain as precip type. We have added low-level wind shear for
Wenatchee and Pullman which carry the best chance for 30-40 kts
of wind 2-3K ft AGL. Surface winds will finally increase over SE
WA overnight and bring a small potential for clearing to the
Spokane-CDA area by morning. Overall, confidence is low and opted
to keep some restrictions present. /sb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  42  40  47  33  48 / 100  40  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  36  42  40  48  35  50 / 100  60  20   0   0   0
Pullman        40  52  39  54  36  55 /  70  20  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       43  53  38  57  37  58 /  60  20   0   0   0   0
Colville       34  38  35  39  34  43 / 100  50  20   0   0   0
Sandpoint      35  39  37  45  34  46 / 100  70  30  10   0   0
Kellogg        35  40  37  49  38  51 / 100  70  30  10   0   0
Moses Lake     33  49  36  46  35  48 /  40  20   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      35  46  37  46  35  45 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           33  41  34  41  33  44 /  30  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 232225
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
225 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system is currently moving through the area. This
storm is wetter and will deliver mountain snow and valley rain
with some pockets of freezing rain through Saturday morning. More
fog and low clouds are expected next week as high pressure builds
back in over the region. A weak storm system will affect the area
mid-week then high pressure will return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight: A challenging forecast for the next 12 hours as a steady
stream of subtropical moisture comes streaming across the
Cascades and brings another round of precipitation. The challenge:
subfreezing temperatures in some of the Cascade Valleys,
Waterville Plateau, and Northern Valleys and determining what form
this precipitation will fall at the surface. Second challenge
deals with the Cascade rain shadow. Strong westerly flow typically
means rain shadow in the lee of the Cascades...however with the
dome of cooler air in the lee of the Cascades, will this hold
strong and how long will it last to neglect the rain shadow.

First for the lower impacts: locations along and south of I-90 can
expect little to no impacts as rain will be the dominate
precipitation type from the surface to 5000 feet. There are two
minor exceptions; areas of fog could lead to reduced visibilities
by morning and secondly, any secondary roads that are still snow
packed from Thursday`s snow could become very slick. Based on
current temperatures, it looks as if rain will be the dominate
precip type through the Idaho Panhandle Valleys with snow levels
rising from the current 3500` to 6000` Saturday. Temperatures from
Bonners Ferry to Spokane to La Crosse and points east will not
drop much from current values as the air mass continues to warm
through the overnight periods.

Now for Central and Northern Washington: Most locations south of Lake
Chelan have warmed above freezing and have been removed from the
freezing rain advisory. The coolest temperatures of the region
remain in the Methow Valley where current readings (both ambient
temps and/or wetbulb temps remain 30-32F. With precipitation
falling or expected shortly, there is still a threat for freezing
rain but looks as if the current timing of the advisory ending at
5PM looks valid with temperatures likely to rise as more
precipitation falls. Any ice accumulations will be light and
generally under a tenth of an inch. Several localized pockets of
freezing rain will also be possible within any of the east to west
canyons off the Okanogan Valley and close to the Canadian Border
including Republic. Temperatures in these locations are also
hugging freezing with the potential to wetbulb near 30-32F as rain
starts to fall. Overall, with temperatures in these ranges, we do
not anticipate major problems from freezing rain, even if liquid
amounts were in excess of a tenth of an inch but with sunset
approaching and road temps at or below freezing along sections of
Hwy 20...there could be slick spots.

As for winds, mountain winds will start cranking this evening and
continue to increase overnight. The top of Mission Ridge at 6730
feet is already blowing 30G50mph. Gusts between 40-50 mph not out
the question for the Blue Mtns, Central Panhandle Mtns, and
Cascades. The valleys should remain decoupled except across
southeastern WA and areas of the lower ID Panhandle where winds of
10-15 mph and gusts to 30 mph will be possible by early Saturday
morning. /sb

Saturday through Monday: The upper level ridge continues to push
into the Inland Northwest through the weekend. One more weak
weather disturbance moves over the ridge and through the area on
Saturday. This will produce rain for the Cascade crest as well as
areas mainly north and east of Spokane County. Light amounts are
expected, less than a tenth of an inch. The exception to this will
be in the mountains of north ID where a quarter of an inch of rain
is possible. Snow levels will be so high that snow will only be
experienced at the highest peaks. After the Saturday rain event we
start to dry out and by Sunday morning we will have a dry forecast
through the beginning of the work week. Models are in pretty good
agreement of very warm 850mb temperatures across the region. Lots
of things to consider before I get too excited putting well above
average temperatures into the forecast. There are some pretty good
850mb and 700mb winds Saturday through Sunday, but will that mix
down to the surface and warm us up? Right now I think not. But I
have increased mountain wind speeds and gusts for Saturday night
and Sunday across the Cascades and northern ID mountains, in
addition to our already gusty forecast Saturday. Another
consideration is the extent of fog for the weekend. Looking at
boundary layer RH values would think there is a pretty good chance
of fog across the northern valleys and down through the Waterville
Plateau and into the Moses Lake area. I think there is a lesser
chance of fog from the Ritzville area eastward. The Wenatchee
valley may intermittently be in and out of fog. The fog will play
a huge role in how warm we get. Where the fog exists, high temps
in the 30s at best. Where there is no fog, highs could be in the
mid 40s to around 60, depending on where you are. Even though
models don`t differ terribly btwn Sun and Mon for temperatures
think there is decent drying btwn Sun and Mon and Monday will be
the warmer day with less widespread fog. Even though there isn`t
much weather going on during this period of the forecast, lots of
different things to consider to create the best forecast. /Nisbet

Monday night through Friday...The large scale weather pattern for
the region will consist of an upper level ridge with a weak
frontal system rolling through the ridge during the mid week
period. Some light precipitation can be expected with this system,
mainly in the form of valley rain and high mountain snow. Snow
levels will start out quite high then fall with the passage of a
weak cold front Tuesday night/Wednesday but even with the frontal
passage, snow levels will still remain above valley floors. The
main weather concern will be the low stratus and fog that will
plague the lower elevations. The weak cold front will not be
enough to scrub the soup out of the basin but there may be enough
downsloping winds to clear the Cascade valleys as winds shift to
the west behind the front. Once the ridge rebounds, there may be
enough easterly gradient wind to keep the southeast valleys and
possibly the eastern Palouse out of the fog/stratus. Temperatures
will trend closer to normal with the passage of the cool front but
diurnal trends will depend on where persistent fog/stratus sets
up. /Kelch


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A very moist boundary layer will be overrun by another
round of precipitation today and tonight with very little mixing
occurring at the surface. This will lead to a continuation of
IFR/MVFR fog/stratus with some improvement to vis as rain
falls 21-06z. As the rain ends, look for cigs to lower and vis to
decrease with areas of drizzle. One item of note which may be
added with the next TAF issuance will be low-level wind shear.
Models indicating 30-40 kts of wind 3-4K ft AGL. Most favorable
time for LLWS will be 05-18z Sat.  /sb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  42  40  47  33  48 / 100  40  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  36  42  40  48  35  50 / 100  60  20   0   0   0
Pullman        40  52  39  54  36  55 /  70  20  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       43  53  38  57  37  58 /  60  20   0   0   0   0
Colville       34  38  35  39  34  43 / 100  50  20   0   0   0
Sandpoint      35  39  37  45  34  46 / 100  70  30  10   0   0
Kellogg        35  40  37  49  38  51 / 100  70  30  10   0   0
Moses Lake     33  49  36  46  35  48 /  40  20   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      35  46  37  46  35  45 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           33  41  34  41  33  44 /  30  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Freezing Rain Advisory until 5 PM PST this afternoon for East
     Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 232225
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
225 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system is currently moving through the area. This
storm is wetter and will deliver mountain snow and valley rain
with some pockets of freezing rain through Saturday morning. More
fog and low clouds are expected next week as high pressure builds
back in over the region. A weak storm system will affect the area
mid-week then high pressure will return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight: A challenging forecast for the next 12 hours as a steady
stream of subtropical moisture comes streaming across the
Cascades and brings another round of precipitation. The challenge:
subfreezing temperatures in some of the Cascade Valleys,
Waterville Plateau, and Northern Valleys and determining what form
this precipitation will fall at the surface. Second challenge
deals with the Cascade rain shadow. Strong westerly flow typically
means rain shadow in the lee of the Cascades...however with the
dome of cooler air in the lee of the Cascades, will this hold
strong and how long will it last to neglect the rain shadow.

First for the lower impacts: locations along and south of I-90 can
expect little to no impacts as rain will be the dominate
precipitation type from the surface to 5000 feet. There are two
minor exceptions; areas of fog could lead to reduced visibilities
by morning and secondly, any secondary roads that are still snow
packed from Thursday`s snow could become very slick. Based on
current temperatures, it looks as if rain will be the dominate
precip type through the Idaho Panhandle Valleys with snow levels
rising from the current 3500` to 6000` Saturday. Temperatures from
Bonners Ferry to Spokane to La Crosse and points east will not
drop much from current values as the air mass continues to warm
through the overnight periods.

Now for Central and Northern Washington: Most locations south of Lake
Chelan have warmed above freezing and have been removed from the
freezing rain advisory. The coolest temperatures of the region
remain in the Methow Valley where current readings (both ambient
temps and/or wetbulb temps remain 30-32F. With precipitation
falling or expected shortly, there is still a threat for freezing
rain but looks as if the current timing of the advisory ending at
5PM looks valid with temperatures likely to rise as more
precipitation falls. Any ice accumulations will be light and
generally under a tenth of an inch. Several localized pockets of
freezing rain will also be possible within any of the east to west
canyons off the Okanogan Valley and close to the Canadian Border
including Republic. Temperatures in these locations are also
hugging freezing with the potential to wetbulb near 30-32F as rain
starts to fall. Overall, with temperatures in these ranges, we do
not anticipate major problems from freezing rain, even if liquid
amounts were in excess of a tenth of an inch but with sunset
approaching and road temps at or below freezing along sections of
Hwy 20...there could be slick spots.

As for winds, mountain winds will start cranking this evening and
continue to increase overnight. The top of Mission Ridge at 6730
feet is already blowing 30G50mph. Gusts between 40-50 mph not out
the question for the Blue Mtns, Central Panhandle Mtns, and
Cascades. The valleys should remain decoupled except across
southeastern WA and areas of the lower ID Panhandle where winds of
10-15 mph and gusts to 30 mph will be possible by early Saturday
morning. /sb

Saturday through Monday: The upper level ridge continues to push
into the Inland Northwest through the weekend. One more weak
weather disturbance moves over the ridge and through the area on
Saturday. This will produce rain for the Cascade crest as well as
areas mainly north and east of Spokane County. Light amounts are
expected, less than a tenth of an inch. The exception to this will
be in the mountains of north ID where a quarter of an inch of rain
is possible. Snow levels will be so high that snow will only be
experienced at the highest peaks. After the Saturday rain event we
start to dry out and by Sunday morning we will have a dry forecast
through the beginning of the work week. Models are in pretty good
agreement of very warm 850mb temperatures across the region. Lots
of things to consider before I get too excited putting well above
average temperatures into the forecast. There are some pretty good
850mb and 700mb winds Saturday through Sunday, but will that mix
down to the surface and warm us up? Right now I think not. But I
have increased mountain wind speeds and gusts for Saturday night
and Sunday across the Cascades and northern ID mountains, in
addition to our already gusty forecast Saturday. Another
consideration is the extent of fog for the weekend. Looking at
boundary layer RH values would think there is a pretty good chance
of fog across the northern valleys and down through the Waterville
Plateau and into the Moses Lake area. I think there is a lesser
chance of fog from the Ritzville area eastward. The Wenatchee
valley may intermittently be in and out of fog. The fog will play
a huge role in how warm we get. Where the fog exists, high temps
in the 30s at best. Where there is no fog, highs could be in the
mid 40s to around 60, depending on where you are. Even though
models don`t differ terribly btwn Sun and Mon for temperatures
think there is decent drying btwn Sun and Mon and Monday will be
the warmer day with less widespread fog. Even though there isn`t
much weather going on during this period of the forecast, lots of
different things to consider to create the best forecast. /Nisbet

Monday night through Friday...The large scale weather pattern for
the region will consist of an upper level ridge with a weak
frontal system rolling through the ridge during the mid week
period. Some light precipitation can be expected with this system,
mainly in the form of valley rain and high mountain snow. Snow
levels will start out quite high then fall with the passage of a
weak cold front Tuesday night/Wednesday but even with the frontal
passage, snow levels will still remain above valley floors. The
main weather concern will be the low stratus and fog that will
plague the lower elevations. The weak cold front will not be
enough to scrub the soup out of the basin but there may be enough
downsloping winds to clear the Cascade valleys as winds shift to
the west behind the front. Once the ridge rebounds, there may be
enough easterly gradient wind to keep the southeast valleys and
possibly the eastern Palouse out of the fog/stratus. Temperatures
will trend closer to normal with the passage of the cool front but
diurnal trends will depend on where persistent fog/stratus sets
up. /Kelch


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A very moist boundary layer will be overrun by another
round of precipitation today and tonight with very little mixing
occurring at the surface. This will lead to a continuation of
IFR/MVFR fog/stratus with some improvement to vis as rain
falls 21-06z. As the rain ends, look for cigs to lower and vis to
decrease with areas of drizzle. One item of note which may be
added with the next TAF issuance will be low-level wind shear.
Models indicating 30-40 kts of wind 3-4K ft AGL. Most favorable
time for LLWS will be 05-18z Sat.  /sb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  42  40  47  33  48 / 100  40  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  36  42  40  48  35  50 / 100  60  20   0   0   0
Pullman        40  52  39  54  36  55 /  70  20  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       43  53  38  57  37  58 /  60  20   0   0   0   0
Colville       34  38  35  39  34  43 / 100  50  20   0   0   0
Sandpoint      35  39  37  45  34  46 / 100  70  30  10   0   0
Kellogg        35  40  37  49  38  51 / 100  70  30  10   0   0
Moses Lake     33  49  36  46  35  48 /  40  20   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      35  46  37  46  35  45 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           33  41  34  41  33  44 /  30  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Freezing Rain Advisory until 5 PM PST this afternoon for East
     Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 232225
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
225 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system is currently moving through the area. This
storm is wetter and will deliver mountain snow and valley rain
with some pockets of freezing rain through Saturday morning. More
fog and low clouds are expected next week as high pressure builds
back in over the region. A weak storm system will affect the area
mid-week then high pressure will return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight: A challenging forecast for the next 12 hours as a steady
stream of subtropical moisture comes streaming across the
Cascades and brings another round of precipitation. The challenge:
subfreezing temperatures in some of the Cascade Valleys,
Waterville Plateau, and Northern Valleys and determining what form
this precipitation will fall at the surface. Second challenge
deals with the Cascade rain shadow. Strong westerly flow typically
means rain shadow in the lee of the Cascades...however with the
dome of cooler air in the lee of the Cascades, will this hold
strong and how long will it last to neglect the rain shadow.

First for the lower impacts: locations along and south of I-90 can
expect little to no impacts as rain will be the dominate
precipitation type from the surface to 5000 feet. There are two
minor exceptions; areas of fog could lead to reduced visibilities
by morning and secondly, any secondary roads that are still snow
packed from Thursday`s snow could become very slick. Based on
current temperatures, it looks as if rain will be the dominate
precip type through the Idaho Panhandle Valleys with snow levels
rising from the current 3500` to 6000` Saturday. Temperatures from
Bonners Ferry to Spokane to La Crosse and points east will not
drop much from current values as the air mass continues to warm
through the overnight periods.

Now for Central and Northern Washington: Most locations south of Lake
Chelan have warmed above freezing and have been removed from the
freezing rain advisory. The coolest temperatures of the region
remain in the Methow Valley where current readings (both ambient
temps and/or wetbulb temps remain 30-32F. With precipitation
falling or expected shortly, there is still a threat for freezing
rain but looks as if the current timing of the advisory ending at
5PM looks valid with temperatures likely to rise as more
precipitation falls. Any ice accumulations will be light and
generally under a tenth of an inch. Several localized pockets of
freezing rain will also be possible within any of the east to west
canyons off the Okanogan Valley and close to the Canadian Border
including Republic. Temperatures in these locations are also
hugging freezing with the potential to wetbulb near 30-32F as rain
starts to fall. Overall, with temperatures in these ranges, we do
not anticipate major problems from freezing rain, even if liquid
amounts were in excess of a tenth of an inch but with sunset
approaching and road temps at or below freezing along sections of
Hwy 20...there could be slick spots.

As for winds, mountain winds will start cranking this evening and
continue to increase overnight. The top of Mission Ridge at 6730
feet is already blowing 30G50mph. Gusts between 40-50 mph not out
the question for the Blue Mtns, Central Panhandle Mtns, and
Cascades. The valleys should remain decoupled except across
southeastern WA and areas of the lower ID Panhandle where winds of
10-15 mph and gusts to 30 mph will be possible by early Saturday
morning. /sb

Saturday through Monday: The upper level ridge continues to push
into the Inland Northwest through the weekend. One more weak
weather disturbance moves over the ridge and through the area on
Saturday. This will produce rain for the Cascade crest as well as
areas mainly north and east of Spokane County. Light amounts are
expected, less than a tenth of an inch. The exception to this will
be in the mountains of north ID where a quarter of an inch of rain
is possible. Snow levels will be so high that snow will only be
experienced at the highest peaks. After the Saturday rain event we
start to dry out and by Sunday morning we will have a dry forecast
through the beginning of the work week. Models are in pretty good
agreement of very warm 850mb temperatures across the region. Lots
of things to consider before I get too excited putting well above
average temperatures into the forecast. There are some pretty good
850mb and 700mb winds Saturday through Sunday, but will that mix
down to the surface and warm us up? Right now I think not. But I
have increased mountain wind speeds and gusts for Saturday night
and Sunday across the Cascades and northern ID mountains, in
addition to our already gusty forecast Saturday. Another
consideration is the extent of fog for the weekend. Looking at
boundary layer RH values would think there is a pretty good chance
of fog across the northern valleys and down through the Waterville
Plateau and into the Moses Lake area. I think there is a lesser
chance of fog from the Ritzville area eastward. The Wenatchee
valley may intermittently be in and out of fog. The fog will play
a huge role in how warm we get. Where the fog exists, high temps
in the 30s at best. Where there is no fog, highs could be in the
mid 40s to around 60, depending on where you are. Even though
models don`t differ terribly btwn Sun and Mon for temperatures
think there is decent drying btwn Sun and Mon and Monday will be
the warmer day with less widespread fog. Even though there isn`t
much weather going on during this period of the forecast, lots of
different things to consider to create the best forecast. /Nisbet

Monday night through Friday...The large scale weather pattern for
the region will consist of an upper level ridge with a weak
frontal system rolling through the ridge during the mid week
period. Some light precipitation can be expected with this system,
mainly in the form of valley rain and high mountain snow. Snow
levels will start out quite high then fall with the passage of a
weak cold front Tuesday night/Wednesday but even with the frontal
passage, snow levels will still remain above valley floors. The
main weather concern will be the low stratus and fog that will
plague the lower elevations. The weak cold front will not be
enough to scrub the soup out of the basin but there may be enough
downsloping winds to clear the Cascade valleys as winds shift to
the west behind the front. Once the ridge rebounds, there may be
enough easterly gradient wind to keep the southeast valleys and
possibly the eastern Palouse out of the fog/stratus. Temperatures
will trend closer to normal with the passage of the cool front but
diurnal trends will depend on where persistent fog/stratus sets
up. /Kelch


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A very moist boundary layer will be overrun by another
round of precipitation today and tonight with very little mixing
occurring at the surface. This will lead to a continuation of
IFR/MVFR fog/stratus with some improvement to vis as rain
falls 21-06z. As the rain ends, look for cigs to lower and vis to
decrease with areas of drizzle. One item of note which may be
added with the next TAF issuance will be low-level wind shear.
Models indicating 30-40 kts of wind 3-4K ft AGL. Most favorable
time for LLWS will be 05-18z Sat.  /sb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  42  40  47  33  48 / 100  40  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  36  42  40  48  35  50 / 100  60  20   0   0   0
Pullman        40  52  39  54  36  55 /  70  20  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       43  53  38  57  37  58 /  60  20   0   0   0   0
Colville       34  38  35  39  34  43 / 100  50  20   0   0   0
Sandpoint      35  39  37  45  34  46 / 100  70  30  10   0   0
Kellogg        35  40  37  49  38  51 / 100  70  30  10   0   0
Moses Lake     33  49  36  46  35  48 /  40  20   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      35  46  37  46  35  45 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           33  41  34  41  33  44 /  30  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Freezing Rain Advisory until 5 PM PST this afternoon for East
     Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 232225
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
225 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system is currently moving through the area. This
storm is wetter and will deliver mountain snow and valley rain
with some pockets of freezing rain through Saturday morning. More
fog and low clouds are expected next week as high pressure builds
back in over the region. A weak storm system will affect the area
mid-week then high pressure will return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight: A challenging forecast for the next 12 hours as a steady
stream of subtropical moisture comes streaming across the
Cascades and brings another round of precipitation. The challenge:
subfreezing temperatures in some of the Cascade Valleys,
Waterville Plateau, and Northern Valleys and determining what form
this precipitation will fall at the surface. Second challenge
deals with the Cascade rain shadow. Strong westerly flow typically
means rain shadow in the lee of the Cascades...however with the
dome of cooler air in the lee of the Cascades, will this hold
strong and how long will it last to neglect the rain shadow.

First for the lower impacts: locations along and south of I-90 can
expect little to no impacts as rain will be the dominate
precipitation type from the surface to 5000 feet. There are two
minor exceptions; areas of fog could lead to reduced visibilities
by morning and secondly, any secondary roads that are still snow
packed from Thursday`s snow could become very slick. Based on
current temperatures, it looks as if rain will be the dominate
precip type through the Idaho Panhandle Valleys with snow levels
rising from the current 3500` to 6000` Saturday. Temperatures from
Bonners Ferry to Spokane to La Crosse and points east will not
drop much from current values as the air mass continues to warm
through the overnight periods.

Now for Central and Northern Washington: Most locations south of Lake
Chelan have warmed above freezing and have been removed from the
freezing rain advisory. The coolest temperatures of the region
remain in the Methow Valley where current readings (both ambient
temps and/or wetbulb temps remain 30-32F. With precipitation
falling or expected shortly, there is still a threat for freezing
rain but looks as if the current timing of the advisory ending at
5PM looks valid with temperatures likely to rise as more
precipitation falls. Any ice accumulations will be light and
generally under a tenth of an inch. Several localized pockets of
freezing rain will also be possible within any of the east to west
canyons off the Okanogan Valley and close to the Canadian Border
including Republic. Temperatures in these locations are also
hugging freezing with the potential to wetbulb near 30-32F as rain
starts to fall. Overall, with temperatures in these ranges, we do
not anticipate major problems from freezing rain, even if liquid
amounts were in excess of a tenth of an inch but with sunset
approaching and road temps at or below freezing along sections of
Hwy 20...there could be slick spots.

As for winds, mountain winds will start cranking this evening and
continue to increase overnight. The top of Mission Ridge at 6730
feet is already blowing 30G50mph. Gusts between 40-50 mph not out
the question for the Blue Mtns, Central Panhandle Mtns, and
Cascades. The valleys should remain decoupled except across
southeastern WA and areas of the lower ID Panhandle where winds of
10-15 mph and gusts to 30 mph will be possible by early Saturday
morning. /sb

Saturday through Monday: The upper level ridge continues to push
into the Inland Northwest through the weekend. One more weak
weather disturbance moves over the ridge and through the area on
Saturday. This will produce rain for the Cascade crest as well as
areas mainly north and east of Spokane County. Light amounts are
expected, less than a tenth of an inch. The exception to this will
be in the mountains of north ID where a quarter of an inch of rain
is possible. Snow levels will be so high that snow will only be
experienced at the highest peaks. After the Saturday rain event we
start to dry out and by Sunday morning we will have a dry forecast
through the beginning of the work week. Models are in pretty good
agreement of very warm 850mb temperatures across the region. Lots
of things to consider before I get too excited putting well above
average temperatures into the forecast. There are some pretty good
850mb and 700mb winds Saturday through Sunday, but will that mix
down to the surface and warm us up? Right now I think not. But I
have increased mountain wind speeds and gusts for Saturday night
and Sunday across the Cascades and northern ID mountains, in
addition to our already gusty forecast Saturday. Another
consideration is the extent of fog for the weekend. Looking at
boundary layer RH values would think there is a pretty good chance
of fog across the northern valleys and down through the Waterville
Plateau and into the Moses Lake area. I think there is a lesser
chance of fog from the Ritzville area eastward. The Wenatchee
valley may intermittently be in and out of fog. The fog will play
a huge role in how warm we get. Where the fog exists, high temps
in the 30s at best. Where there is no fog, highs could be in the
mid 40s to around 60, depending on where you are. Even though
models don`t differ terribly btwn Sun and Mon for temperatures
think there is decent drying btwn Sun and Mon and Monday will be
the warmer day with less widespread fog. Even though there isn`t
much weather going on during this period of the forecast, lots of
different things to consider to create the best forecast. /Nisbet

Monday night through Friday...The large scale weather pattern for
the region will consist of an upper level ridge with a weak
frontal system rolling through the ridge during the mid week
period. Some light precipitation can be expected with this system,
mainly in the form of valley rain and high mountain snow. Snow
levels will start out quite high then fall with the passage of a
weak cold front Tuesday night/Wednesday but even with the frontal
passage, snow levels will still remain above valley floors. The
main weather concern will be the low stratus and fog that will
plague the lower elevations. The weak cold front will not be
enough to scrub the soup out of the basin but there may be enough
downsloping winds to clear the Cascade valleys as winds shift to
the west behind the front. Once the ridge rebounds, there may be
enough easterly gradient wind to keep the southeast valleys and
possibly the eastern Palouse out of the fog/stratus. Temperatures
will trend closer to normal with the passage of the cool front but
diurnal trends will depend on where persistent fog/stratus sets
up. /Kelch


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A very moist boundary layer will be overrun by another
round of precipitation today and tonight with very little mixing
occurring at the surface. This will lead to a continuation of
IFR/MVFR fog/stratus with some improvement to vis as rain
falls 21-06z. As the rain ends, look for cigs to lower and vis to
decrease with areas of drizzle. One item of note which may be
added with the next TAF issuance will be low-level wind shear.
Models indicating 30-40 kts of wind 3-4K ft AGL. Most favorable
time for LLWS will be 05-18z Sat.  /sb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  42  40  47  33  48 / 100  40  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  36  42  40  48  35  50 / 100  60  20   0   0   0
Pullman        40  52  39  54  36  55 /  70  20  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       43  53  38  57  37  58 /  60  20   0   0   0   0
Colville       34  38  35  39  34  43 / 100  50  20   0   0   0
Sandpoint      35  39  37  45  34  46 / 100  70  30  10   0   0
Kellogg        35  40  37  49  38  51 / 100  70  30  10   0   0
Moses Lake     33  49  36  46  35  48 /  40  20   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      35  46  37  46  35  45 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           33  41  34  41  33  44 /  30  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Freezing Rain Advisory until 5 PM PST this afternoon for East
     Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KPQR 232224
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
223 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE NORTH TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENS. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND WILL RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INLAND VALLEYS
WILL BE TRAPPED UNDER STRONG INVERSIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS APPEAR POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY RETURN
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR AT
21Z SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS SW WA AND
MOST OF NW OREGON WEST OF THE CASCADES. LATEST RADAR TREND IN THE
PAST HOUR HAS SHOWN A DISTINCT BACK EDGE TO THE PRECIP ALONG THE
COAST. RAINFALL RATES AT KAST HAVE DIMINISHED TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS PER
HOUR...VERSUS THE .10 TO .15 PER HOUR LATE THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WITH NAM AND GFS 500 MB HEIGHTS OVERLAYED INDICATES A 590+DM
500 MB HIGH PRES CENTER AROUND 30N 137W WITH THE 576 DM HEIGHT
CONTOUR PUSHING INTO SWRN WA.

NESDIS OPERATIONAL BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) IMAGERY AT
19Z SHOWED A GRADUAL DECREASE IN OVERALL TPW SINCE EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THE 19Z DATA SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF 1.25 INCH OR SO TPW OVER
EXTREME NW OREGON AND INTO SW WA. THE 12Z GFS AND NAM ISENTROPIC
ANALYSIS ALONG THE 290K SURFACE SHOWS THE BEST LIFT FOCUSED OVER SW
WA AND THE N OREGON COASTAL AREAS THROUGH 00Z SAT. BEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO INLAND ARAS N OF A
NEWPORT-TO-ALBANY LINE. THE 19Z HRRR RUN ALSO SHOWED THE PRECIP BAND
MOVING E OF THE CASCADES BY LATE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE RATHER MOIST
AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT...THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL
BE HEADED FOR WA. GFS 6-HR QPF FORECAST SHOWS AROUND A QUARTER INCH
FOR SW WA AND FAR NW OREGON WITH LITTLE TO NOTHING SOUTH OF KSLE.

PATTERN CHANGES RATHER DRAMATICALLY OVER THE WEEKEND...MORE TOWARD A
LATE-SPRING OR EARLY SUMMER REGIME INSTEAD OF WINTER. STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL ASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
OPTED TO REMOVE THE SAT AM POPS OVER THE N AS THE LATEST ECMWF AND
GFS SHOW THE PRECIP SHIELD SHOVED FURTHER N INTO WA. BY 18Z SAT THE
579 DM CONTOUR IS INTO SW WA. THE AIR MASS ALOFT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE 00Z NAEFS 850 MB TEMP JUMPS TO THE
99TH PERCENTILE 12Z SAT...THEN REACHES ALL-TIME MAX VALUES 06Z SUN
THROUGH MON. ANOTHER WAY TO LOOK AT IT IS BY THE STANDARDIZED
ANOMALY. 850 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL 18Z SAT THROUGH MON. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING 850 MB TEMPS UP TO +10 DEG C ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
SATURDAY...THEN +18 DEG C SUNDAY. TO GIVE AN IDEA OF HOW WARM THIS
AIR MASS IS... 850 MB TEMPS FORECAST BY NEARLY ALL MODELS SUNDAY ARE
WARMER THAN THE AVERAGE 850 MB TEMPERATURE IN AUGUST. GRANTED LOW SUN
ANGLE WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES...BUT DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF AREAS IS
THE OREGON COAST RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS HIT 70 DEGREES. THE NAMM
MODEL SOUNDING FOR KPDX VALID SUN MORNING INDICATES 60-65 DEG AT
2000-2500 FT. INTERIOR VALLEY MAX TEMP FORECASTS WILL BE TRICKY.
SITES SUCH AS KPDX SHOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF CLEARING COMPARED
TO KSLE AND KEUG. IF THIS PATTERN OCCURED JUST A MONTH LATER...IN MID
TO LATE FEBRUARY...INTERIOR VALLEYS WOULD STAND A MUCH BETTER CHANCE
OF AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXING OUT THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSIONS AND
REACHING AT LEAST 60 DEG.

THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A BUILDING COOL
POOL IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A MESOSCALE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM INLAND...AND KEEP LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST
SUNDAY WITH THE END RESULT BEING MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
IT IS PRETTY SAFE TO SAY AT LEAST A COUPLE MAX TEMP RECORDS WILL
FALL. 850MB TEMPS DIP JUST A BIT MON...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE PLENTY OF
60S IN THE OREGON COAST RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. ONE OTHER
CONCERN WILL BE AIR QUALITY FOR THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND SRN VALLEYS
DUE TO THE IMPENDING STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
LOOK TO STICK AROUND THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...AS THE FLOW
PATTERN BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. BUMPED UP THE POPS SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR A CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. A WEAK FRONT LOOKS
TO MOVE THROUGH ON LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY AND IS THE MOST
PROMISING CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...BUT DETAILS ARE
STILL A BIT SKETCHY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO REBUILD LATE
NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE RETURN OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...AND
BENIGN CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS. /64
&&

.AVIATION...CURRENTLY MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS ALONG THE
COAST...WHILE INLAND SITES ARE PRIMARILY VFR. CIGS AND VIS OVER THE
NORTH OR/SOUTH WA COAST WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS RAIN CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST AND MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO BE PUSHED ONSHORE. THE CENTRAL OR COAST...THOUGH...WILL LIKELY
BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE REMAINS
TO THE NORTH. INLAND SITES WILL SEE CIGS AND VIS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR
TONIGHT WITH FOG DEVELOPING EARLY SATURDAY IN THE SOUTH AND
CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...BUT MAINLY IN AREAS PROTECTED FROM THE WIND SUCH
AS KHIO. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT STRATUS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE IF KEUG SEES ANY CLEARING TONIGHT THAT DENSE FOG COULD
DEVELOP...KEEPING THIS SITE MVFR/IFR ALL DAY SATURDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH VISUAL APPROACHES WILL LIKELY BECOME
LIMITED AS CIGS LOWER TO AROUND 030 TO 040 AFTER 01Z THIS
EVENING. CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER EARLY SATURDAY...FALLING TO AROUND
025 AFTER 12Z...WITH MVFR VIS AS WELL. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 19Z SATURDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...WARM FRONT HAS MOVED ONSHORE...AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE OCCURRING OVER THE WATERS. WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING
TO 30 KTS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT BUOY 29. GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
WATERS COULD EXTEND INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER REMAINS WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING THAT WINDS WILL WEAKEN...BUT GFS AND
NAM ARE LEANING TOWARDS WINDS PERSISTING UNTIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON SO EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS TO INCLUDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 10 FT AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...
PEAKING AROUND 13 FT LATER THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND
10 TO 12 FT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE DROPPING BELOW 10 FT LATE
SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 PM
     PST SATURDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 232224
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
223 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE NORTH TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENS. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND WILL RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INLAND VALLEYS
WILL BE TRAPPED UNDER STRONG INVERSIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS APPEAR POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY RETURN
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR AT
21Z SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS SW WA AND
MOST OF NW OREGON WEST OF THE CASCADES. LATEST RADAR TREND IN THE
PAST HOUR HAS SHOWN A DISTINCT BACK EDGE TO THE PRECIP ALONG THE
COAST. RAINFALL RATES AT KAST HAVE DIMINISHED TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS PER
HOUR...VERSUS THE .10 TO .15 PER HOUR LATE THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WITH NAM AND GFS 500 MB HEIGHTS OVERLAYED INDICATES A 590+DM
500 MB HIGH PRES CENTER AROUND 30N 137W WITH THE 576 DM HEIGHT
CONTOUR PUSHING INTO SWRN WA.

NESDIS OPERATIONAL BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) IMAGERY AT
19Z SHOWED A GRADUAL DECREASE IN OVERALL TPW SINCE EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THE 19Z DATA SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF 1.25 INCH OR SO TPW OVER
EXTREME NW OREGON AND INTO SW WA. THE 12Z GFS AND NAM ISENTROPIC
ANALYSIS ALONG THE 290K SURFACE SHOWS THE BEST LIFT FOCUSED OVER SW
WA AND THE N OREGON COASTAL AREAS THROUGH 00Z SAT. BEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO INLAND ARAS N OF A
NEWPORT-TO-ALBANY LINE. THE 19Z HRRR RUN ALSO SHOWED THE PRECIP BAND
MOVING E OF THE CASCADES BY LATE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE RATHER MOIST
AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT...THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL
BE HEADED FOR WA. GFS 6-HR QPF FORECAST SHOWS AROUND A QUARTER INCH
FOR SW WA AND FAR NW OREGON WITH LITTLE TO NOTHING SOUTH OF KSLE.

PATTERN CHANGES RATHER DRAMATICALLY OVER THE WEEKEND...MORE TOWARD A
LATE-SPRING OR EARLY SUMMER REGIME INSTEAD OF WINTER. STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL ASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
OPTED TO REMOVE THE SAT AM POPS OVER THE N AS THE LATEST ECMWF AND
GFS SHOW THE PRECIP SHIELD SHOVED FURTHER N INTO WA. BY 18Z SAT THE
579 DM CONTOUR IS INTO SW WA. THE AIR MASS ALOFT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE 00Z NAEFS 850 MB TEMP JUMPS TO THE
99TH PERCENTILE 12Z SAT...THEN REACHES ALL-TIME MAX VALUES 06Z SUN
THROUGH MON. ANOTHER WAY TO LOOK AT IT IS BY THE STANDARDIZED
ANOMALY. 850 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL 18Z SAT THROUGH MON. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING 850 MB TEMPS UP TO +10 DEG C ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
SATURDAY...THEN +18 DEG C SUNDAY. TO GIVE AN IDEA OF HOW WARM THIS
AIR MASS IS... 850 MB TEMPS FORECAST BY NEARLY ALL MODELS SUNDAY ARE
WARMER THAN THE AVERAGE 850 MB TEMPERATURE IN AUGUST. GRANTED LOW SUN
ANGLE WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES...BUT DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF AREAS IS
THE OREGON COAST RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS HIT 70 DEGREES. THE NAMM
MODEL SOUNDING FOR KPDX VALID SUN MORNING INDICATES 60-65 DEG AT
2000-2500 FT. INTERIOR VALLEY MAX TEMP FORECASTS WILL BE TRICKY.
SITES SUCH AS KPDX SHOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF CLEARING COMPARED
TO KSLE AND KEUG. IF THIS PATTERN OCCURED JUST A MONTH LATER...IN MID
TO LATE FEBRUARY...INTERIOR VALLEYS WOULD STAND A MUCH BETTER CHANCE
OF AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXING OUT THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSIONS AND
REACHING AT LEAST 60 DEG.

THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A BUILDING COOL
POOL IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A MESOSCALE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM INLAND...AND KEEP LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST
SUNDAY WITH THE END RESULT BEING MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
IT IS PRETTY SAFE TO SAY AT LEAST A COUPLE MAX TEMP RECORDS WILL
FALL. 850MB TEMPS DIP JUST A BIT MON...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE PLENTY OF
60S IN THE OREGON COAST RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. ONE OTHER
CONCERN WILL BE AIR QUALITY FOR THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND SRN VALLEYS
DUE TO THE IMPENDING STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
LOOK TO STICK AROUND THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...AS THE FLOW
PATTERN BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. BUMPED UP THE POPS SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR A CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. A WEAK FRONT LOOKS
TO MOVE THROUGH ON LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY AND IS THE MOST
PROMISING CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...BUT DETAILS ARE
STILL A BIT SKETCHY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO REBUILD LATE
NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE RETURN OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...AND
BENIGN CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS. /64
&&

.AVIATION...CURRENTLY MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS ALONG THE
COAST...WHILE INLAND SITES ARE PRIMARILY VFR. CIGS AND VIS OVER THE
NORTH OR/SOUTH WA COAST WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS RAIN CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST AND MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO BE PUSHED ONSHORE. THE CENTRAL OR COAST...THOUGH...WILL LIKELY
BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE REMAINS
TO THE NORTH. INLAND SITES WILL SEE CIGS AND VIS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR
TONIGHT WITH FOG DEVELOPING EARLY SATURDAY IN THE SOUTH AND
CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...BUT MAINLY IN AREAS PROTECTED FROM THE WIND SUCH
AS KHIO. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT STRATUS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE IF KEUG SEES ANY CLEARING TONIGHT THAT DENSE FOG COULD
DEVELOP...KEEPING THIS SITE MVFR/IFR ALL DAY SATURDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH VISUAL APPROACHES WILL LIKELY BECOME
LIMITED AS CIGS LOWER TO AROUND 030 TO 040 AFTER 01Z THIS
EVENING. CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER EARLY SATURDAY...FALLING TO AROUND
025 AFTER 12Z...WITH MVFR VIS AS WELL. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 19Z SATURDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...WARM FRONT HAS MOVED ONSHORE...AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE OCCURRING OVER THE WATERS. WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING
TO 30 KTS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT BUOY 29. GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
WATERS COULD EXTEND INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER REMAINS WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING THAT WINDS WILL WEAKEN...BUT GFS AND
NAM ARE LEANING TOWARDS WINDS PERSISTING UNTIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON SO EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS TO INCLUDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 10 FT AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...
PEAKING AROUND 13 FT LATER THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND
10 TO 12 FT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE DROPPING BELOW 10 FT LATE
SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 PM
     PST SATURDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 232219
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
220 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT RAIN AT TIMES ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT
NORTH INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA ON SATURDAY WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GIVE DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY LATER TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WARM FRONT
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NE ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON THIS EVENING. ANOTHER WARM FRONT APPEARS FROM THE CENTRAL
OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS TO A 999 MB LOW NEAR 41N 139W. THIS SECOND
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL RATES WITH THE FIRST WARM FRONTAL FEATURE HAVE BEEN BETWEEN
0.25 AND 0.35 INCHES PER HOUR OVER THE WESTERN OLYMPIC PENINSULA.
KLGX RADAR SHOWS THE PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES INLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON. POES AMSU RAINFALL
RATES CENTERED NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE SECOND FRONT AT 42N 139W
AT 20Z ARE BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1 INCH PER HOUR. THE 20Z HRRR MODEL
BRINGS THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST FACING OLYMPICS
BETWEEN 05Z AND 09Z AND GIVES ABOUT 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THAT
PERIOD TO THE AREA WEST OF QUEETS. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THEN COME TO AN END FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS THE SECOND WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER WASHINGTON.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE MILD. DESPITE THE DRIPS OF
PRECIPITATION AND THE CLOUDS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S ACROSS THE AREA. AS CLOUDS DECREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM OVER THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTH
INTERIOR. THEN SUNDAY SHOULD BE A VERY NICE DAY FOR LATE JANUARY AS
TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 60 DEGREES UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY SEE MORE FOG AROUND THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE WARM AGAIN...HOW WARM WILL DEPEND
ON WHEN FOG BURNS OFF MIDDAY. BUT ANOTHER DAY NEAR 60 LOOKS LIKELY
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...A VERY WEAK FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND
WILL LIKELY BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
SNOW LEVELS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH...6000 FEET ON
TUESDAY FALLING TO AROUND 4000 FEET BY THURSDAY. IF YOU LIKE RIDGES
AND MILD WEATHER THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE
SETTING UP FOR A REDEVELOPING RIDGE LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW AND QUITE MILD CONDITIONS FOR
LATE JANUARY. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THERE IS ONLY A LOW CHANCE OF MINOR FLOODING ON THE
SKOKOMISH RIVER NEAR POTLATCH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BUT AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO
DRIVE THE RIVER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. ELSEWHERE...FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT THEN MOVE NORTH ON SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. AT THE SURFACE MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
WEAKEN SLOWLY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AIR MASS MOIST AND STABLE.

FRONT IS ALREADY VISIBLY WEAKENING ON RADAR. CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED
SLIGHTLY FROM LATE THIS MORNING WITH MOST CEILINGS 2-3K FT AND
MOSTLY VFR VISIBILITIES. MORE CLOUD DECKS EXIST BOTH ABOVE AND
BELOW. EXCURSIONS INTO BOTH IFR AND VFR ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING.
MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY IMPULSE 06Z-12Z THAT WILL LIKELY BRING LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...PROBABLY 1-2K FT WITH 3-5SM IN RAIN.
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
NORTH.

KSEA...DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. MAINLY MVFR TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL
FOR VFR SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WIND 4-8 KT WILL INCREASE TO 8-12 KT
THIS EVENING. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THEN MOVE
NORTH ON SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING LIGHT
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES OVER ALL
WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL EASE ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY.
A WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY.

KING TIDES...THE HIGHEST HIGH TIDES OF THE YEAR...ARE OCCURRING. THE
FORECAST HIGH TIDES FOR SEATTLE THIS MORNING AND SATURDAY MORNING
ARE 13.2 FEET. MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW STARTS AT 13.5 FEET. SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE WAS QUITE HIGH THIS MORNING...AROUND 1030 MB...WITH LIGHT
WINDS. THIS GAVE A NEGATIVE TIDAL ANOMALY OF 0.8 FEET DURING THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE AT 710 AM THIS MORNING. THE HIGH TIDE ENDED UP
BEING ONLY 12.4 FEET.

SIMILAR METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SATURDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE AT 750 AM. THERE WILL BE A NEGATIVE TIDAL ANOMALY
AND THE UPSHOT IS MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW IS NOT EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
EITHER. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML











000
FXUS66 KSEW 232219
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
220 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT RAIN AT TIMES ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT
NORTH INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA ON SATURDAY WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GIVE DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY LATER TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WARM FRONT
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NE ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON THIS EVENING. ANOTHER WARM FRONT APPEARS FROM THE CENTRAL
OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS TO A 999 MB LOW NEAR 41N 139W. THIS SECOND
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL RATES WITH THE FIRST WARM FRONTAL FEATURE HAVE BEEN BETWEEN
0.25 AND 0.35 INCHES PER HOUR OVER THE WESTERN OLYMPIC PENINSULA.
KLGX RADAR SHOWS THE PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES INLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON. POES AMSU RAINFALL
RATES CENTERED NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE SECOND FRONT AT 42N 139W
AT 20Z ARE BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1 INCH PER HOUR. THE 20Z HRRR MODEL
BRINGS THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST FACING OLYMPICS
BETWEEN 05Z AND 09Z AND GIVES ABOUT 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THAT
PERIOD TO THE AREA WEST OF QUEETS. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THEN COME TO AN END FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS THE SECOND WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER WASHINGTON.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE MILD. DESPITE THE DRIPS OF
PRECIPITATION AND THE CLOUDS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S ACROSS THE AREA. AS CLOUDS DECREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM OVER THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTH
INTERIOR. THEN SUNDAY SHOULD BE A VERY NICE DAY FOR LATE JANUARY AS
TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 60 DEGREES UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY SEE MORE FOG AROUND THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE WARM AGAIN...HOW WARM WILL DEPEND
ON WHEN FOG BURNS OFF MIDDAY. BUT ANOTHER DAY NEAR 60 LOOKS LIKELY
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...A VERY WEAK FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND
WILL LIKELY BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
SNOW LEVELS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH...6000 FEET ON
TUESDAY FALLING TO AROUND 4000 FEET BY THURSDAY. IF YOU LIKE RIDGES
AND MILD WEATHER THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE
SETTING UP FOR A REDEVELOPING RIDGE LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW AND QUITE MILD CONDITIONS FOR
LATE JANUARY. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THERE IS ONLY A LOW CHANCE OF MINOR FLOODING ON THE
SKOKOMISH RIVER NEAR POTLATCH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BUT AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO
DRIVE THE RIVER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. ELSEWHERE...FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT THEN MOVE NORTH ON SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. AT THE SURFACE MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
WEAKEN SLOWLY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AIR MASS MOIST AND STABLE.

FRONT IS ALREADY VISIBLY WEAKENING ON RADAR. CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED
SLIGHTLY FROM LATE THIS MORNING WITH MOST CEILINGS 2-3K FT AND
MOSTLY VFR VISIBILITIES. MORE CLOUD DECKS EXIST BOTH ABOVE AND
BELOW. EXCURSIONS INTO BOTH IFR AND VFR ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING.
MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY IMPULSE 06Z-12Z THAT WILL LIKELY BRING LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...PROBABLY 1-2K FT WITH 3-5SM IN RAIN.
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
NORTH.

KSEA...DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. MAINLY MVFR TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL
FOR VFR SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WIND 4-8 KT WILL INCREASE TO 8-12 KT
THIS EVENING. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THEN MOVE
NORTH ON SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING LIGHT
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES OVER ALL
WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL EASE ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY.
A WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY.

KING TIDES...THE HIGHEST HIGH TIDES OF THE YEAR...ARE OCCURRING. THE
FORECAST HIGH TIDES FOR SEATTLE THIS MORNING AND SATURDAY MORNING
ARE 13.2 FEET. MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW STARTS AT 13.5 FEET. SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE WAS QUITE HIGH THIS MORNING...AROUND 1030 MB...WITH LIGHT
WINDS. THIS GAVE A NEGATIVE TIDAL ANOMALY OF 0.8 FEET DURING THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE AT 710 AM THIS MORNING. THE HIGH TIDE ENDED UP
BEING ONLY 12.4 FEET.

SIMILAR METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SATURDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE AT 750 AM. THERE WILL BE A NEGATIVE TIDAL ANOMALY
AND THE UPSHOT IS MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW IS NOT EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
EITHER. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

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