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000
FXUS66 KOTX 310541
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1040 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving frontal system will slowly move through the region
over the next 24 hours. Rain will push up against the Cascades
tonight...before tracking across the region Friday and Friday
night. Rain in the Idaho Panhandle will likely linger into
Saturday. Cool and unsettled weather is expected to continue into
next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Quick update this evening to modify chance of precipitation
through the evening and into tomorrow morning. Radar showing some
very light showers across northeast WA and north ID. These showers
should move out of the area in the next 2 hours or so, with this
area then remaining dry the rest of the night. Other change made
was to split the chance of precipitation tomorrow morning into an
early morning and mid morning period. Models seem to agree that
the Spokane area shouldn`t see any rain through the morning
commute at least...and therefore decreased chance of precip
throughout Spokane county and areas to the east and north. /Nisbet


&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday night...Afternoon
satellite imagery shows a deep low pressure system in the eastern
Pacific out near 135W. Current model guidance is matching up
pretty well. The low is expected to split tonight as a a short
rounds the bottom of the trough courtesy of a 130+ kt jet. With
the jet parallel to the low forward movement has been slowed. The
accompanying cold front isn`t expected to cross the Cascades until
Friday evening between 00z-03z. As the trough digs the steering
flow will become increasingly southerly. The warm front eased in
from the west- northwest overnight...but as the flow becomes
increasingly southerly the warm front will retrograde back to the
west and tuck up against the east slopes of the Cascades this
evening...before slowly pushing through the forecast area Friday
afternoon.

The cold front then tracks across the remainder of the forecast
area Friday night and stalls over the Idaho Panhandle. This puts
the focus for the best precipitation to the Idaho Panhandle. The
stratiform precipitation will change to showers with the
atmosphere drying from west to east.

Precipitation: I kept the chances for precipitation west of a
line from about Republic south to about Saddle mountain Wildlife
area for most of tonight and Friday. Aiding in the precipitation
production will be light east to southeast winds which will add an
orographic lift. Rain fall amounts will range from .10 to .15 for
the lower east slopes and the deep basin to around an inch near
the Cascade crest over the next 24 hours. Snow levels are pretty
high, around 6k feet and are not expected to drop below 5k feet
until after the frontal passage Friday night. By this time the
heaviest precipitation will be winding down. But the area near the
Cascade crest could certainly pick up several inches of fresh snow
in the showers following the cold front. Further to the east
precipitation will begin later but not be quite as wet. QPF from a
couple hundredths in the deep basin to around a third of an inch
in the Blue mountains and the central Panhandle mountains early
Saturday morning. Again snow levels will start out very high in
the warm sector precipitation and not drop below 5k feet until
later Saturday morning. So precipitation should be as mostly rain.

Temps and Wind: Temperatures will bump up 3-5 degrees Friday with
southerly winds and warm air advection. Pre-frontal winds from the
east-southeast will come around to the south-southwest Friday
afternoon and increase slightly. Winds 5-10 mph with gusts to 15
mph will be common as this is not expected to be a big wind event.
/Tobin

Saturday and Sunday: A trough pattern will slowly traversing
through the region during this period. Models are in good
agreement of timing and moisture associated with this system. With
strong cyclonic flow around the apex of the trough in NW Nevada, a
strong moist flow will push into the Idaho Panhandle and western
Montana. This is expected to bring precip to the Idaho Panhandle
and extreme eastern Washington. The bulk of the precip is expected
to fall on Saturday with snow levels above 5000 feet. Areas could
receive rain totals of at least a quarter of an inch in the Cams
Prairie area and around one inch near Mullan Pass. Snow levels
drop to around 4000 feet late Saturday but the bulk of moisture
and the trough will shift further East. This will allow for light
snow accumulation in the higher elevations near Lookout Pass. The
Cascades during this period are expected to fairly dry. Spill over
from the western Washington along the Cascades will bring some
light showers to the eastern side of the Cascades but precip
amounts will fairly small. The Columbia Basin is expected to be
dry during this weekend. Temperatures for this will period will be
near the season normals. Highs will range in the upper 40s to low
50s. Lows are expected to around mid 30s with some locations
expected to cross into freezing temperatures. /JDC

Monday and Tuesday: Shortwave ridge of higher pressure breaks down
and allows another moist Pacific storm system to push across the
region. This storm system will ride a 150 +kt jet streak directed
toward Vancouver Island. Much of the upper level dynamics
associated with the jet and vorticity maximum will remain north
of the region. This will result in a surface low that tracks
across central and northern BC from Monday night into Tuesday.
Precip will develop during the day on Monday with some decent
isentropic ascent ahead of the cold front. The cold front will
then swing across the region Tuesday morning. This is will result
in approximately 12-18 hours of light to moderate precip from
Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. All areas will see a good
chance for at least some light precip. Best accumulations are
expected across the Northeast Mtns over into the ID Panhandle with
storm totals of between 0.50 to 1.00 inches. Totals will be a bit
less out into the greater basin area with 0.25 to 0.50 inches
expected in the Spokane Area and on the Palouse; and up to a
quarter of an inch for most other locations around the region.
Snow levels will generally be up around 5,000 feet. They sill
start out a bit lower early Monday and then increase as the precip
moves in through Monday night.

Wednesday through Thursday: There will be another storm system
that moves through toward the end of the work week. A warm front
will push north across the region on Wednesday. This will result
in some light precip across the region. We may then see a little
bit of a break in the precip before the cold front pushes through
around Thursday. Models show a quick hitting cold front passage.
Strong upper level dynamics aloft looks to spin up a deepening
surface low pressure system from southern BC into southern
Alberta. This would create good packing of isobars across the
region for Thursday afternoon. Expect breezy to windy conditions
with this front. Wind highlights may be needed depending on how
strong this surface low gets. The 12Z model runs are the first to
show such strong cyclogenesis, so confidence at this point in
wind strength is low.

Expect fall like temperatures next week. Overnight low temperatures
will moderate out from the chilly temperatures expected this
weekend. /SVH

AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Light rain will continue at KEAT through Friday morning.
Conditions will very widely at KEAT the next 12 hours from VFR to
IFR and back. Precipitation and a lower deck will make it to KMWH
by 17z but conditions are expected to remain VFR. Further to the
east the remainder of the TAF sites will not see precipitation
begin until aft 20z Friday...again with lowering decks but
conditions mainly VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        45  56  42  48  34  49 /  10  50  50  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  43  58  43  46  34  48 /   0  40  50  70  40  10
Pullman        46  59  42  46  35  48 /   0  30  60  70  40  10
Lewiston       48  65  46  48  40  53 /   0  20  70  80  40  10
Colville       42  55  41  50  33  50 /  40  80  50  10  10   0
Sandpoint      39  57  41  47  35  47 /  10  40  60  70  40  20
Kellogg        42  59  41  45  35  44 /   0  20  70 100  60  30
Moses Lake     45  55  41  54  35  54 /  40  60  10  10  10   0
Wenatchee      46  55  39  55  39  56 / 100  90  10  10   0  10
Omak           43  52  37  51  34  52 /  90  90  20  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&




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000
FXUS66 KPQR 310415
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
915 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS..STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
PUSHED INLAND THIS EVENING. THE STALLED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN
BECOMING FOCUSED OVER THE CASCADES. THE DISSIPATING FRONT WILL PUSH
EAST OF THE CASCADES BY LATE MORNING...WITH SHOWERS REMAINING FRI
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTAIN BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS FOR THOSE TRICK OR TREATING. SOME
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE LIGHT RAIN SPREADS BACK
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER WET SYSTEM ON TAP
FOR LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM SPREADING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE PAC
NW. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THE
SE SIDE OF THE LOW IS SLOWING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND PIVOTING IT
FROM A NE-SW ORIENTATION TO A N-S ORIENTATION. A BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SPREAD ONTO THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS PUSHED SLOWLY INLAND THIS EVENING. THERE IS
STILL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THIS SYSTEM...WITH AMSU
DERIVED SATELLITE SHOWING 1 TO 1.2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION OVER
WESTERN OREGON...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVED ONSHORE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT APPEARS
TO HAVE WEAKENED AND LOST SOME DEFINITION AS IT PASSED OVER THE
COAST RANGE. THE STEADIER FRONTAL RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST AND IS NOW
FOCUSED OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CASCADES...WHILE THERE IS A
BACK EDGE TO THE PRECIPITATION BAND SHOWING UP BEHIND THE FRONT
ALONG THE COAST AND NORTHERN COAST RANGE. ANOTHER INTERESTING
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING WAS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES...EXTENDING INTO LANE
COUNTY. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE SHORT TERM RAP MODEL SHOWED A STRONG
BAND OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN THIS REGION...WHICH WOULD SEEM TO
EXPLAIN THE THUNDER. TRACKING THE RAP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...IT
APPEARS THAT THE FORCING WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDED THUNDER TO THE FCST EARLIER THIS EVENING FOR
THE CASCADES SOUTH OF MT HOOD...WITH THE THREAT ENDING AFTER 06Z.

THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT MAINLY TO THE
CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS CONTINUING
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE AND MOVE EAST OF THE
CASCADES BY MID TO LATE MORNING TOMORROW. BEHIND THE FRONT...A
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
SPREAD INTO THE AREA. EXPECT PLENTY OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THIS
POST FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH THE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE AS THE COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BASED ON
THE INSTABILITY APPARENT ON SATELLITE UNDERNEATH THE UPPER
LOW...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER NEAR THE COAST...OR
OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY MOVING INTO FRIDAY EVENING.  AS THE COLDER AIR
MASS SETS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP INTO THE 4500
TO 5000 FT RANGE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...THOUGH MOTORISTS
TRAVELING OVER THE HIGHER CASCADE PASSES INCLUDING SANTIAM AND
WILLAMETTE SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ENOUGH SNOW
TO IMPACT TRAVEL LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SLIDES INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY AND
SHOWERS END AS SOME WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NW AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY CLIP THE REGION. MORE STEADY RAIN
INCREASE LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES.  PYLE/CULLEN
&&


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION BY MONDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A SYSTEM APPROACHING...BUT
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DO REMAIN IN TERMS OF THE LOCATION AND
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. SOME INDICATION THAT SOME SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH THE PATTERN DOES
APPEAR TO STAY A BIT PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE. THEREFORE...INCREASED
POPS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER WET WEEK APPEARS IN STORE. CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE SOMEWHAT STALLED AND IS
PETERING OUT OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS EVENING. RAIN IS
BEGINNING TO TRANSITION TO A MORE SHOWERY NATURE WITH MVFR TO VFR
CIGS. WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AT THE COAST...COULD SEE SOME MVFR VIS
DEVELOP THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. MORE UNCERTAINTY INLAND
DUE TO SEEMINGLY FIZZLING FRONT. AT THIS POINT IT DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AND IF MOISTURE
LINGERS...COULD SEE ANOTHER MORNING WITH IFR OR EVEN LIFR CIGS
AROUND SLE AND EUG. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.


KPDX AND APPROACHES...WITH FRONT NOT MAKING A CLEAN SWEEP THROUGH
THE AREA...MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS DOMINANT
BY ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS. BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO 10 KT OR LESS BEHIND THE FRONT
THIS EVENING. WITH SWELL CONTINUING TO DECREASE...CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN BENIGN OUTSIDE OF THE COLUMBIA BAR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE WNW SWELL INCREASES SEAS TO AT LEAST NEAR SCA
CRITERIA FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAISED SEAS TO AROUND 10 FT
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT SEAS FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN AND BORDERLINE FOR SCA SO WILL LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT
REASSESS AND ISSUE IF NECESSARY. COULD SEE A COUPLE OF STORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. WINDS
OVERALL WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE A BIT WITH
GUSTS LESS THAN 20 KT. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 1 AM
    PDT FRIDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 10 AM TO
    2 PM PDT FRIDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



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000
FXUS66 KSEW 310335 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

CORRECTED REMARKS ABOUT SKOKOMISH RIVER IN HYDROLOGY SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAINFALL TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CASCADES EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...AND RAIN WILL TURN TO SHOWERS AND DECREASE.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH LIGHT SPOTTY SHOWERS. A WEAK
FRONT WILL PROBABLY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN ON SUNDAY. RAINY AND
LOCALLY WINDY WEATHER IS LIKELY MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF RAIN CONTINUING
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE STORM SO
FAR HAVE BEEN ROUGHLY 0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES FOR THE COAST AND
MOUNTAINS...WITH LOCALLY ALMOST 3 INCHES OVER THE OLYMPICS. UP TO
0.75 INCH HAS FALLEN IN THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. THE SNOW LEVEL IS
STILL AROUND 7500 FT.

THE SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH THE COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE CASCADES LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. STEADY
RAIN WILL TURN TO SHOWERS...WHICH WILL PROBABLY TAPER OFF QUICKLY ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INLAND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE PORTION OF THE TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON WILL BE WEAK AND DISORGANIZED...WITH THE CORE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA. A FORECAST OF
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOKS GOOD. FOR THE
SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND
COVERAGE MIGHT JUST BE SCATTERED. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE AROUND 4500
TO 5500 FT.

A SMALL FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT FOLLOWING CLOSELY
BEHIND THE RIDGE AXIS. MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE TIMING
OF THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON
SUNDAY...BUT SOME MODEL RUNS SHOW SLOWER TIMING WITH THE RAIN MOVING
IN SUNDAY NIGHT.   MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...HERE IS THE LONG TERM SECTION FROM THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST DISCUSSION -- CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD WAS NOT HIGH DUE TO
CONTINUED DISAGREEMENT AND LACK CONTINUITY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS. IT DID APPEAR THAT WESTERN WA WILL PROBABLY RECEIVE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
SEEMED TO BE CONVERGING ON THE IDEA OF A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
PRODUCER IMPACTING THE CWA DURING THE MON/TUE TIME FRAME. HAVE KEPT
POPS ABOVE CLIMO DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...ABOUT 1 TO 2.75 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE
OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
SLOPES. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL MOVING EAST OF THE OLYMPICS THOUGH...AND MODELS
SHOW ONLY ANOTHER 0.3 TO 0.6 INCH OF RAIN IN THE SKOKOMISH BASIN
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SKOKOMISH RIVER NEAR POTLATCH IS RISING...AND
ACTUALLY TRACKING SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE FORECAST. AFTER MUCH
DELIBERATION I WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLOOD WARNING THIS
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH. IT COULD FALL JUST
SHORT OF FLOOD STAGE.

THE OTHER RIVER WE HAVE BEEN CONCERNED ABOUT IS THE NOOKSACK
RIVER...BECAUSE THE OTHER FOCUS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS AROUND MOUNT
BAKER. FLOODING ON THE NOOKSACK LOOKS UNLIKELY THOUGH.

FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ON OTHER AREA RIVERS DURING THE NEXT 7
DAYS.   MCDONNAL

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE AND MOIST...
BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM AT 8PM WAS MAINLY EAST OF I-5
AND MOVING INTO THE CASCADES. THE RADAR SHOWS PRECIP SHOULD BECOME
MORE SHOWERY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

KSEA...A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN MOVED THROUGH THE METRO AREA THIS
EVENING AND NOW THE RADAR SUGGESTS THE PRECIP WILL BE MORE SHOWERY.
THE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE STILL SHOWS A FRONTAL BAND DRAPED OVER
THE AREA...SO SHOWERS COULD TURN BACK TO RAIN AGAIN BUT CERTAINLY ON
FRIDAY THE COOLER MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL WORK IN OVER THE AREA FOR
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...LOOKS LIKE A FRONT WENT THROUGH THE AREA WITH WESTERLIES
IN THE STRAIT THIS EVENING...RACE ROCKS HAS BEEN UP AROUND 30KTS FOR
A FEW HOURS...THE BUOYS AND SMITH ISLAND IN THE STRAIT HAVE NOT
SHOWN MUCH OF THE WESTERLY PUSH...BUT WITH RACE BLOWING PRETTY
STRONG I HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR THE WHOLE STRAIT FOR
THIS EVENING. ANOTHER BREEZY SPOT AT 8PM WAS THE AREA NORTH OF
BELLINGHAM...AND SANDY POINT HAD GUSTS TO 28MPH...BUT THE WINDS OVER
THE WATER AND THROUGHOUT THE SAN JUANS WERE NOT MORE THAN ABOUT
10KTS SO I DON`T HAVE AN SCA FOR THE NRN WATERS. THE WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD TURN TO NW 15KT
TONIGHT...BUT THEN BECOME MORE SW AGAIN FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
IS ON THE WAY SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE FRONTAL
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
      LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MASON COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TIL 11PM.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KSEW 310320
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAINFALL TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CASCADES EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...AND RAIN WILL TURN TO SHOWERS AND DECREASE.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH LIGHT SPOTTY SHOWERS. A WEAK
FRONT WILL PROBABLY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN ON SUNDAY. RAINY AND
LOCALLY WINDY WEATHER IS LIKELY MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF RAIN CONTINUING
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE STORM SO
FAR HAVE BEEN ROUGHLY 0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES FOR THE COAST AND
MOUNTAINS...WITH LOCALLY ALMOST 3 INCHES OVER THE OLYMPICS. UP TO
0.75 INCH HAS FALLEN IN THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. THE SNOW LEVEL IS
STILL AROUND 7500 FT.

THE SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH THE COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE CASCADES LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. STEADY
RAIN WILL TURN TO SHOWERS...WHICH WILL PROBABLY TAPER OFF QUICKLY ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INLAND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE PORTION OF THE TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON WILL BE WEAK AND DISORGANIZED...WITH THE CORE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA. A FORECAST OF
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOKS GOOD. FOR THE
SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND
COVERAGE MIGHT JUST BE SCATTERED. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE AROUND 4500
TO 5500 FT.

A SMALL FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT FOLLOWING CLOSELY
BEHIND THE RIDGE AXIS. MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE TIMING
OF THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON
SUNDAY...BUT SOME MODEL RUNS SHOW SLOWER TIMING WITH THE RAIN MOVING
IN SUNDAY NIGHT.   MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...HERE IS THE LONG TERM SECTION FROM THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST DISCUSSION -- CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD WAS NOT HIGH DUE TO
CONTINUED DISAGREEMENT AND LACK CONTINUITY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS. IT DID APPEAR THAT WESTERN WA WILL PROBABLY RECEIVE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
SEEMED TO BE CONVERGING ON THE IDEA OF A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
PRODUCER IMPACTING THE CWA DURING THE MON/TUE TIME FRAME. HAVE KEPT
POPS ABOVE CLIMO DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...ABOUT 1 TO 2.75 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE
OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
SLOPES. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL MOVING EAST OF THE OLYMPICS THOUGH...AND MODELS
SHOW ONLY ANOTHER 0.3 TO 0.6 INCH OF RAIN IN THE SKOKOMISH BASIN
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SKOKOMISH RIVER NEAR POTLATCH IS RISING...AND
ACTUALLY TRACKING SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER IT LOOKS
LIKE THE TOTAL RAINFALL IN THE BASIN WILL BE LESS THAN WHAT WAS
FORECAST...SO THE CREST FORECAST MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH. BOTTOM
LINE IS I WILL HOLD ON TO THE FLOOD WATCH -- RATHER THAN ISSUING A
FLOOD WARNING -- UNTIL WE CAN BE A BIT MORE CONFIDENT.

THE OTHER RIVER WE HAVE BEEN CONCERNED ABOUT IS THE NOOKSACK
RIVER...BECAUSE THE OTHER FOCUS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS AROUND MOUNT
BAKER. FLOODING ON THE NOOKSACK LOOKS UNLIKELY THOUGH.

FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ON OTHER AREA RIVERS DURING THE NEXT 7
DAYS.   MCDONNAL

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE AND MOIST...
BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM AT 8PM WAS MAINLY EAST OF I-5
AND MOVING INTO THE CASCADES. THE RADAR SHOWS PRECIP SHOULD BECOME
MORE SHOWERY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

KSEA...A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN MOVED THROUGH THE METRO AREA THIS
EVENING AND NOW THE RADAR SUGGESTS THE PRECIP WILL BE MORE SHOWERY.
THE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE STILL SHOWS A FRONTAL BAND DRAPED OVER
THE AREA...SO SHOWERS COULD TURN BACK TO RAIN AGAIN BUT CERTAINLY ON
FRIDAY THE COOLER MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL WORK IN OVER THE AREA FOR
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...LOOKS LIKE A FRONT WENT THROUGH THE AREA WITH WESTERLIES
IN THE STRAIT THIS EVENING...RACE ROCKS HAS BEEN UP AROUND 30KTS FOR
A FEW HOURS...THE BUOYS AND SMITH ISLAND IN THE STRAIT HAVE NOT
SHOWN MUCH OF THE WESTERLY PUSH...BUT WITH RACE BLOWING PRETTY
STRONG I HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR THE WHOLE STRAIT FOR
THIS EVENING. ANOTHER BREEZY SPOT AT 8PM WAS THE AREA NORTH OF
BELLINGHAM...AND SANDY POINT HAD GUSTS TO 28MPH...BUT THE WINDS OVER
THE WATER AND THROUGHOUT THE SAN JUANS WERE NOT MORE THAN ABOUT
10KTS SO I DON`T HAVE AN SCA FOR THE NRN WATERS. THE WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD TURN TO NW 15KT
TONIGHT...BUT THEN BECOME MORE SW AGAIN FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
IS ON THE WAY SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE FRONTAL
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
      LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MASON COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TIL 11PM.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KOTX 310123
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
623 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving frontal system will slowly move through the region
over the next 2 days. Rain will push up against the Cascades
tonight...before tracking across the region Friday and Friday
night. Rain in the Idaho Panhandle will likely linger into
Saturday. Cool and unsettled weather is expected to continue into
next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Quick update this evening to modify chance of precipitation
through the evening and into tomorrow morning. Radar showing some
very light showers across northeast WA and north ID. These showers
should move out of the area in the next 2 hours or so, with this
area then remaining dry the rest of the night. Other change made
was to split the chance of precipitation tomorrow morning into an
early morning and mid morning period. Models seem to agree that
the Spokane area shouldn`t see any rain through the morning
commute at least...and therefore decreased chance of precip
throughout Spokane county and areas to the east and north. /Nisbet


&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday night...Afternoon
satellite imagery shows a deep low pressure system in the eastern
Pacific out near 135W. Current model guidance is matching up
pretty well. The low is expected to split tonight as a a short
rounds the bottom of the trough courtesy of a 130+ kt jet. With
the jet parallel to the low forward movement has been slowed. The
accompanying cold front isn`t expected to cross the Cascades until
Friday evening between 00z-03z. As the trough digs the steering
flow will become increasingly southerly. The warm front eased in
from the west- northwest overnight...but as the flow becomes
increasingly southerly the warm front will retrograde back to the
west and tuck up against the east slopes of the Cascades this
evening...before slowly pushing through the forecast area Friday
afternoon.

The cold front then tracks across the remainder of the forecast
area Friday night and stalls over the Idaho Panhandle. This puts
the focus for the best precipitation to the Idaho Panhandle. The
stratiform precipitation will change to showers with the
atmosphere drying from west to east.

Precipitation: I kept the chances for precipitation west of a
line from about Republic south to about Saddle mountain Wildlife
area for most of tonight and Friday. Aiding in the precipitation
production will be light east to southeast winds which will add an
orographic lift. Rain fall amounts will range from .10 to .15 for
the lower east slopes and the deep basin to around an inch near
the Cascade crest over the next 24 hours. Snow levels are pretty
high, around 6k feet and are not expected to drop below 5k feet
until after the frontal passage Friday night. By this time the
heaviest precipitation will be winding down. But the area near the
Cascade crest could certainly pick up several inches of fresh snow
in the showers following the cold front. Further to the east
precipitation will begin later but not be quite as wet. QPF from a
couple hundredths in the deep basin to around a third of an inch
in the Blue mountains and the central Panhandle mountains early
Saturday morning. Again snow levels will start out very high in
the warm sector precipitation and not drop below 5k feet until
later Saturday morning. So precipitation should be as mostly rain.

Temps and Wind: Temperatures will bump up 3-5 degrees Friday with
southerly winds and warm air advection. Pre-frontal winds from the
east-southeast will come around to the south-southwest Friday
afternoon and increase slightly. Winds 5-10 mph with gusts to 15
mph will be common as this is not expected to be a big wind event.
/Tobin

Saturday and Sunday: A trough pattern will slowly traversing
through the region during this period. Models are in good
agreement of timing and moisture associated with this system. With
strong cyclonic flow around the apex of the trough in NW Nevada, a
strong moist flow will push into the Idaho Panhandle and western
Montana. This is expected to bring precip to the Idaho Panhandle
and extreme eastern Washington. The bulk of the precip is expected
to fall on Saturday with snow levels above 5000 feet. Areas could
receive rain totals of at least a quarter of an inch in the Cams
Prairie area and around one inch near Mullan Pass. Snow levels
drop to around 4000 feet late Saturday but the bulk of moisture
and the trough will shift further East. This will allow for light
snow accumulation in the higher elevations near Lookout Pass. The
Cascades during this period are expected to fairly dry. Spill over
from the western Washington along the Cascades will bring some
light showers to the eastern side of the Cascades but precip
amounts will fairly small. The Columbia Basin is expected to be
dry during this weekend. Temperatures for this will period will be
near the season normals. Highs will range in the upper 40s to low
50s. Lows are expected to around mid 30s with some locations
expected to cross into freezing temperatures. /JDC

Monday and Tuesday: Shortwave ridge of higher pressure breaks down
and allows another moist Pacific storm system to push across the
region. This storm system will ride a 150 +kt jet streak directed
toward Vancouver Island. Much of the upper level dynamics
associated with the jet and vorticity maximum will remain north
of the region. This will result in a surface low that tracks
across central and northern BC from Monday night into Tuesday.
Precip will develop during the day on Monday with some decent
isentropic ascent ahead of the cold front. The cold front will
then swing across the region Tuesday morning. This is will result
in approximately 12-18 hours of light to moderate precip from
Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. All areas will see a good
chance for at least some light precip. Best accumulations are
expected across the Northeast Mtns over into the ID Panhandle with
storm totals of between 0.50 to 1.00 inches. Totals will be a bit
less out into the greater basin area with 0.25 to 0.50 inches
expected in the Spokane Area and on the Palouse; and up to a
quarter of an inch for most other locations around the region.
Snow levels will generally be up around 5,000 feet. They sill
start out a bit lower early Monday and then increase as the precip
moves in through Monday night.

Wednesday through Thursday: There will be another storm system
that moves through toward the end of the work week. A warm front
will push north across the region on Wednesday. This will result
in some light precip across the region. We may then see a little
bit of a break in the precip before the cold front pushes through
around Thursday. Models show a quick hitting cold front passage.
Strong upper level dynamics aloft looks to spin up a deepening
surface low pressure system from southern BC into southern
Alberta. This would create good packing of isobars across the
region for Thursday afternoon. Expect breezy to windy conditions
with this front. Wind highlights may be needed depending on how
strong this surface low gets. The 12Z model runs are the first to
show such strong cyclogenesis, so confidence at this point in
wind strength is low.

Expect fall like temperatures next week. Overnight low temperatures
will moderate out from the chilly temperatures expected this
weekend. /SVH

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: The warm front has retro-graded back to the west and is
now snugged up against the Cascades...but the front is expected to
push very slowly back to the east again tomorrow. Light rain will
continue at times at KEAT through early this evening then become
more intense through the night. Conditions will very widely at
KEAT the next 24 hours from MVFR to LIFR and back. Precipitation
and a lower deck will make it to KMWH around 12z but conditions
are expected to remain VFR with a drop to MVFR at times. Further to
the east the remainder of the TAF sites will not see precipitation
begin until 18-20z Friday...again with lowering decks but
conditions mainly VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        45  56  42  48  34  49 /  10  50  50  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  43  58  43  46  34  48 /   0  40  50  70  40  10
Pullman        46  59  42  46  35  48 /   0  30  60  70  40  10
Lewiston       48  65  46  48  40  53 /   0  20  70  80  40  10
Colville       42  55  41  50  33  50 /  40  80  50  10  10   0
Sandpoint      39  57  41  47  35  47 /  10  40  60  70  40  20
Kellogg        42  59  41  45  35  44 /   0  20  70 100  60  30
Moses Lake     45  55  41  54  35  54 /  40  60  10  10  10   0
Wenatchee      46  55  39  55  39  56 / 100  90  10  10   0  10
Omak           43  52  37  51  34  52 /  90  90  20  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&





000
FXUS66 KOTX 302345
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
445 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving frontal system will slowly move through the region
over the next 2 days. Rain will push up against the Cascades
tonight...before tracking across the region Friday and Friday
night. Rain in the Idaho Panhandle will likely linger into
Saturday. Cool and unsettled weather is expected to continue into
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday night...Afternoon satellite imagery shows
a deep low pressure system in the eastern Pacific out near 135W.
Current model guidance is matching up pretty well. The low is
expected to split tonight as a a short rounds the bottom of the
trough courtesy of a 130+ kt jet. With the jet parallel to the low
forward movement has been slowed. The accompanying cold front
isn`t expected to cross the Cascades until Friday evening between
00z-03z. As the trough digs the steering flow will become
increasingly southerly. The warm front eased in from the west-
northwest overnight...but as the flow becomes increasingly
southerly the warm front will retrograde back to the west and tuck
up against the east slopes of the Cascades this evening...before
slowly pushing through the forecast area Friday afternoon.

The cold front then tracks across the remainder of the forecast
area Friday night and stalls over the Idaho Panhandle. This puts
the focus for the best precipitation to the Idaho Panhandle. The
stratiform precipitation will change to showers with the
atmosphere drying from west to east.

Precipitation: I kept the chances for precipitation west of a
line from about Republic south to about Saddle mountain Wildlife
area for most of tonight and Friday. Aiding in the precipitation
production will be light east to southeast winds which will add an
orographic lift. Rain fall amounts will range from .10 to .15 for
the lower east slopes and the deep basin to around an inch near
the Cascade crest over the next 24 hours. Snow levels are pretty
high, around 6k feet and are not expected to drop below 5k feet
until after the frontal passage Friday night. By this time the
heaviest precipitation will be winding down. But the area near the
Cascade crest could certainly pick up several inches of fresh snow
in the showers following the cold front. Further to the east
precipitation will begin later but not be quite as wet. QPF from a
couple hundredths in the deep basin to around a third of an inch
in the Blue mountains and the central Panhandle mountains early
Saturday morning. Again snow levels will start out very high in
the warm sector precipitation and not drop below 5k feet until
later Saturday morning. So precipitation should be as mostly rain.

Temps and Wind: Temperatures will bump up 3-5 degrees Friday with
southerly winds and warm air advection. Pre-frontal winds from the
east-southeast will come around to the south-southwest Friday
afternoon and increase slightly. Winds 5-10 mph with gusts to 15
mph will be common as this is not expected to be a big wind event.
/Tobin

Saturday and Sunday: A trough pattern will slowly traversing
through the region during this period. Models are in good
agreement of timing and moisture associated with this system. With
strong cyclonic flow around the apex of the trough in NW Nevada, a
strong moist flow will push into the Idaho Panhandle and western
Montana. This is expected to bring precip to the Idaho Panhandle
and extreme eastern Washington. The bulk of the precip is expected
to fall on Saturday with snow levels above 5000 feet. Areas could
receive rain totals of at least a quarter of an inch in the Cams
Prairie area and around one inch near Mullan Pass. Snow levels
drop to around 4000 feet late Saturday but the bulk of moisture
and the trough will shift further East. This will allow for light
snow accumulation in the higher elevations near Lookout Pass. The
Cascades during this period are expected to fairly dry. Spill over
from the western Washington along the Cascades will bring some
light showers to the eastern side of the Cascades but precip
amounts will fairly small. The Columbia Basin is expected to be
dry during this weekend. Temperatures for this will period will be
near the season normals. Highs will range in the upper 40s to low
50s. Lows are expected to around mid 30s with some locations
expected to cross into freezing temperatures. /JDC

Monday and Tuesday: Shortwave ridge of higher pressure breaks down
and allows another moist Pacific storm system to push across the
region. This storm system will ride a 150 +kt jet streak directed
toward Vancouver Island. Much of the upper level dynamics
associated with the jet and vorticity maximum will remain north
of the region. This will result in a surface low that tracks
across central and northern BC from Monday night into Tuesday.
Precip will develop during the day on Monday with some decent
isentropic ascent ahead of the cold front. The cold front will
then swing across the region Tuesday morning. This is will result
in approximately 12-18 hours of light to moderate precip from
Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. All areas will see a good
chance for at least some light precip. Best accumulations are
expected across the Northeast Mtns over into the ID Panhandle with
storm totals of between 0.50 to 1.00 inches. Totals will be a bit
less out into the greater basin area with 0.25 to 0.50 inches
expected in the Spokane Area and on the Palouse; and up to a
quarter of an inch for most other locations around the region.
Snow levels will generally be up around 5,000 feet. They sill
start out a bit lower early Monday and then increase as the precip
moves in through Monday night.

Wednesday through Thursday: There will be another storm system
that moves through toward the end of the work week. A warm front
will push north across the region on Wednesday. This will result
in some light precip across the region. We may then see a little
bit of a break in the precip before the cold front pushes through
around Thursday. Models show a quick hitting cold front passage.
Strong upper level dynamics aloft looks to spin up a deepening
surface low pressure system from southern BC into southern
Alberta. This would create good packing of isobars across the
region for Thursday afternoon. Expect breezy to windy conditions
with this front. Wind highlights may be needed depending on how
strong this surface low gets. The 12Z model runs are the first to
show such strong cyclogenesis, so confidence at this point in
wind strength is low.

Expect fall like temperatures next week. Overnight low temperatures
will moderate out from the chilly temperatures expected this
weekend. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: The warm front has retro-graded back to the west and is
now snugged up against the Cascades...but the front is expected to
push very slowly back to the east again tomorrow. Light rain will
continue at times at KEAT through early this evening then become
more intense through the night. Conditions will very widely at
KEAT the next 24 hours from MVFR to LIFR and back. Precipitation
and a lower deck will make it to KMWH around 12z but conditions
are expected to remain VFR with a drop to MVFR at times. Further to
the east the remainder of the TAF sites will not see precipitation
begin until 18-20z Friday...again with lowering decks but
conditions mainly VFR.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        45  56  42  48  34  49 /  10  50  50  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  43  58  43  46  34  48 /  10  40  50  70  40  10
Pullman        46  59  42  46  35  48 /  10  30  60  70  40  10
Lewiston       48  65  46  48  40  53 /  10  20  70  80  40  10
Colville       42  55  41  50  33  50 /  40  80  50  10  10   0
Sandpoint      39  57  41  47  35  47 /  10  40  60  70  40  20
Kellogg        42  59  41  45  35  44 /  10  20  70 100  60  30
Moses Lake     45  55  41  54  35  54 /  40  60  10  10  10   0
Wenatchee      46  55  39  55  39  56 /  90  90  10  10   0  10
Omak           43  52  37  51  34  52 /  90  90  20  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 302220 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
320 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

CORRECTED TO ADD THE AVIATION AND MARINE SEGMENTS.

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR THE STEADY
RAIN TO TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. ALAS...ANOTHER PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WAS DIRECTED AT WESTERN WA AT
THIS TIME. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG UPPER FORCING AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT HAVE RESULTED IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ON THE SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF THE OLYMPIC RANGE TODAY. RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING LOCALLY
AT A RATE OF 0.25 TO 0.3 INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES ON THE OLYMPICS.
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...ENDING AROUND 315 PM PDT...ABOUT 1 TO
1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN LOCALLY ON THE OLYMPICS.

THE COLD FRONT WAS ABOUT 85 MILES OFFSHORE BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND LIMITED MARINE OBSERVATIONS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SLOWLY EAST AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY FRI. THE STEADY RAIN WILL BECOME LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON AS A COOLER
AIR MASS BEGINS TO INVADE THE REGION.

LOOK FOR THE UPPER TROF TO MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRI
NIGHT AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON SATURDAY. THE TROF IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE EAST OF THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING. PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY...THE AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WAS QUITE
UNSTABLE...THUS HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR FRI NIGHT AND INCLUDED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA FOR SATURDAY.

A DIRTY RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. IT ALSO
APPEARED THAT A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CWA DURING THE DAY.
DECIDED TO GO WITH CLIMO POPS FOR SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A THREAT
OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE ENTIRE CWA DUE TO WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
OR ISENTROPIC LIFT.

.LONG TERM...
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD WAS NOT HIGH DUE TO CONTINUED
DISAGREEMENT AND LACK CONTINUITY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS. IT
DID APPEAR THAT WESTERN WA WILL PROBABLY RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS SEEMED TO
BE CONVERGING ON THE IDEA OF A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL PRODUCER
IMPACTING THE CWA DURING THE MON/TUE TIME FRAME. HAVE KEPT POPS
ABOVE CLIMO DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING LOCALLY AT A RATE OF 0.25 TO 0.3 INCH PER
HOUR AT TIMES ON THE OLYMPIC RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN STEEP RISES ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER. ANOTHER 1.5 TO
2.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST ON THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF THE
OLYMPIC RANGE DURING THE 18-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 11 AM PDT FRI.
THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO RISE ABOVE
THE FLOOD STAGE OF 16.5 FEET LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRI MORNING.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARED THAT THE NOOKSACK RIVER WILL REMAIN
BELOW FLOOD STAGE DURING THIS EVENT BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE GAGES IN CASE MORE RAIN FALLS THAN PREDICTED.

FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ON THE REMAINING RIVERS THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE AND MOIST...
BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE ALONG THE COAST AFTER 15Z FRI MORNING.

SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM
DRIFTING TOWARD THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS
SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH LEADING TO AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKENING...SO
EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHTER. COOLER AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE
BY EARLY FRIDAY...USHERING IN A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COAST FRIDAY.  WEAGLE/ALBRECHT

KSEA...MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH 02Z. E-SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING...
LIKELY ALLOWING 2000-3000 FT CIGS TO BECOME MORE PERSISTENT
OVERNIGHT. -RA TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH VSBYS 3-5SM AT TIMES.
WEAGLE/ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND
LOCALLY WITHIN THE INLAND WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE EASING...
SO EXPECT WINDS TO EASE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THIS
EVENING. SEAS ARE MAINLY WIND-DRIVEN ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS AT THE
MOMENT...BUT WILL TRANSITION TO A BUILDING W SWELL FRIDAY. SEAS MAY
REACH 10 FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS BY FRI AFTERNOON.

A WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
POSSIBLY ENHANCING S WINDS AGAIN. HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...MAINLY 10-15 KT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY...
LEADING TO FAIRLY LIGHT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS
ON THE WAY SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE FRONTAL
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS.  WEAGLE

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MASON COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE ADMIRALTY INLET AND PUGET SOUND/HOOD
     CANAL.


&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 302220 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
320 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

CORRECTED TO ADD THE AVIATION AND MARINE SEGMENTS.

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR THE STEADY
RAIN TO TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. ALAS...ANOTHER PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WAS DIRECTED AT WESTERN WA AT
THIS TIME. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG UPPER FORCING AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT HAVE RESULTED IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ON THE SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF THE OLYMPIC RANGE TODAY. RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING LOCALLY
AT A RATE OF 0.25 TO 0.3 INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES ON THE OLYMPICS.
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...ENDING AROUND 315 PM PDT...ABOUT 1 TO
1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN LOCALLY ON THE OLYMPICS.

THE COLD FRONT WAS ABOUT 85 MILES OFFSHORE BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND LIMITED MARINE OBSERVATIONS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SLOWLY EAST AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY FRI. THE STEADY RAIN WILL BECOME LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON AS A COOLER
AIR MASS BEGINS TO INVADE THE REGION.

LOOK FOR THE UPPER TROF TO MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRI
NIGHT AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON SATURDAY. THE TROF IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE EAST OF THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING. PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY...THE AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WAS QUITE
UNSTABLE...THUS HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR FRI NIGHT AND INCLUDED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA FOR SATURDAY.

A DIRTY RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. IT ALSO
APPEARED THAT A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CWA DURING THE DAY.
DECIDED TO GO WITH CLIMO POPS FOR SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A THREAT
OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE ENTIRE CWA DUE TO WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
OR ISENTROPIC LIFT.

.LONG TERM...
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD WAS NOT HIGH DUE TO CONTINUED
DISAGREEMENT AND LACK CONTINUITY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS. IT
DID APPEAR THAT WESTERN WA WILL PROBABLY RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS SEEMED TO
BE CONVERGING ON THE IDEA OF A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL PRODUCER
IMPACTING THE CWA DURING THE MON/TUE TIME FRAME. HAVE KEPT POPS
ABOVE CLIMO DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING LOCALLY AT A RATE OF 0.25 TO 0.3 INCH PER
HOUR AT TIMES ON THE OLYMPIC RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN STEEP RISES ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER. ANOTHER 1.5 TO
2.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST ON THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF THE
OLYMPIC RANGE DURING THE 18-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 11 AM PDT FRI.
THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO RISE ABOVE
THE FLOOD STAGE OF 16.5 FEET LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRI MORNING.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARED THAT THE NOOKSACK RIVER WILL REMAIN
BELOW FLOOD STAGE DURING THIS EVENT BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE GAGES IN CASE MORE RAIN FALLS THAN PREDICTED.

FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ON THE REMAINING RIVERS THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE AND MOIST...
BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE ALONG THE COAST AFTER 15Z FRI MORNING.

SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM
DRIFTING TOWARD THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS
SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH LEADING TO AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKENING...SO
EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHTER. COOLER AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE
BY EARLY FRIDAY...USHERING IN A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COAST FRIDAY.  WEAGLE/ALBRECHT

KSEA...MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH 02Z. E-SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING...
LIKELY ALLOWING 2000-3000 FT CIGS TO BECOME MORE PERSISTENT
OVERNIGHT. -RA TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH VSBYS 3-5SM AT TIMES.
WEAGLE/ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND
LOCALLY WITHIN THE INLAND WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE EASING...
SO EXPECT WINDS TO EASE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THIS
EVENING. SEAS ARE MAINLY WIND-DRIVEN ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS AT THE
MOMENT...BUT WILL TRANSITION TO A BUILDING W SWELL FRIDAY. SEAS MAY
REACH 10 FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS BY FRI AFTERNOON.

A WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
POSSIBLY ENHANCING S WINDS AGAIN. HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...MAINLY 10-15 KT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY...
LEADING TO FAIRLY LIGHT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS
ON THE WAY SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE FRONTAL
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS.  WEAGLE

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MASON COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE ADMIRALTY INLET AND PUGET SOUND/HOOD
     CANAL.


&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 302218
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
318 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR THE STEADY
RAIN TO TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. ALAS...ANOTHER PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WAS DIRECTED AT WESTERN WA AT
THIS TIME. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG UPPER FORCING AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT HAVE RESULTED IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ON THE SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF THE OLYMPIC RANGE TODAY. RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING LOCALLY
AT A RATE OF 0.25 TO 0.3 INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES ON THE OLYMPICS.
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...ENDING AROUND 315 PM PDT...ABOUT 1 TO
1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN LOCALLY ON THE OLYMPICS.

THE COLD FRONT WAS ABOUT 85 MILES OFFSHORE BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND LIMITED MARINE OBSERVATIONS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SLOWLY EAST AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY FRI. THE STEADY RAIN WILL BECOME LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON AS A COOLER
AIR MASS BEGINS TO INVADE THE REGION.

LOOK FOR THE UPPER TROF TO MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRI
NIGHT AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON SATURDAY. THE TROF IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE EAST OF THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING. PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY...THE AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WAS QUITE
UNSTABLE...THUS HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR FRI NIGHT AND INCLUDED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA FOR SATURDAY.

A DIRTY RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. IT ALSO
APPEARED THAT A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CWA DURING THE DAY.
DECIDED TO GO WITH CLIMO POPS FOR SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A THREAT
OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE ENTIRE CWA DUE TO WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
OR ISENTROPIC LIFT.

.LONG TERM...
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD WAS NOT HIGH DUE TO CONTINUED
DISAGREEMENT AND LACK CONTINUITY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS. IT
DID APPEAR THAT WESTERN WA WILL PROBABLY RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS SEEMED TO
BE CONVERGING ON THE IDEA OF A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL PRODUCER
IMPACTING THE CWA DURING THE MON/TUE TIME FRAME. HAVE KEPT POPS
ABOVE CLIMO DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING LOCALLY AT A RATE OF 0.25 TO 0.3 INCH PER
HOUR AT TIMES ON THE OLYMPIC RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN STEEP RISES ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER. ANOTHER 1.5 TO
2.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST ON THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF THE
OLYMPIC RANGE DURING THE 18-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 11 AM PDT FRI.
THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO RISE ABOVE
THE FLOOD STAGE OF 16.5 FEET LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRI MORNING.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARED THAT THE NOOKSACK RIVER WILL REMAIN
BELOW FLOOD STAGE DURING THIS EVENT BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE GAGES IN CASE MORE RAIN FALLS THAN PREDICTED.

FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ON THE REMAINING RIVERS THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...RAIN. LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT.

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MASON COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE ADMIRALTY INLET AND PUGET SOUND/HOOD
     CANAL.


&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 302218
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
318 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR THE STEADY
RAIN TO TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. ALAS...ANOTHER PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WAS DIRECTED AT WESTERN WA AT
THIS TIME. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG UPPER FORCING AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT HAVE RESULTED IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ON THE SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF THE OLYMPIC RANGE TODAY. RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING LOCALLY
AT A RATE OF 0.25 TO 0.3 INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES ON THE OLYMPICS.
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...ENDING AROUND 315 PM PDT...ABOUT 1 TO
1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN LOCALLY ON THE OLYMPICS.

THE COLD FRONT WAS ABOUT 85 MILES OFFSHORE BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND LIMITED MARINE OBSERVATIONS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SLOWLY EAST AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY FRI. THE STEADY RAIN WILL BECOME LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON AS A COOLER
AIR MASS BEGINS TO INVADE THE REGION.

LOOK FOR THE UPPER TROF TO MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRI
NIGHT AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON SATURDAY. THE TROF IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE EAST OF THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING. PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY...THE AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WAS QUITE
UNSTABLE...THUS HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR FRI NIGHT AND INCLUDED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA FOR SATURDAY.

A DIRTY RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. IT ALSO
APPEARED THAT A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CWA DURING THE DAY.
DECIDED TO GO WITH CLIMO POPS FOR SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A THREAT
OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE ENTIRE CWA DUE TO WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
OR ISENTROPIC LIFT.

.LONG TERM...
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD WAS NOT HIGH DUE TO CONTINUED
DISAGREEMENT AND LACK CONTINUITY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS. IT
DID APPEAR THAT WESTERN WA WILL PROBABLY RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS SEEMED TO
BE CONVERGING ON THE IDEA OF A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL PRODUCER
IMPACTING THE CWA DURING THE MON/TUE TIME FRAME. HAVE KEPT POPS
ABOVE CLIMO DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING LOCALLY AT A RATE OF 0.25 TO 0.3 INCH PER
HOUR AT TIMES ON THE OLYMPIC RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN STEEP RISES ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER. ANOTHER 1.5 TO
2.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST ON THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF THE
OLYMPIC RANGE DURING THE 18-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 11 AM PDT FRI.
THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO RISE ABOVE
THE FLOOD STAGE OF 16.5 FEET LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRI MORNING.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARED THAT THE NOOKSACK RIVER WILL REMAIN
BELOW FLOOD STAGE DURING THIS EVENT BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE GAGES IN CASE MORE RAIN FALLS THAN PREDICTED.

FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ON THE REMAINING RIVERS THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...RAIN. LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT.

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MASON COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE ADMIRALTY INLET AND PUGET SOUND/HOOD
     CANAL.


&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KPQR 302200
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
259 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS..STEADY RAIN WILL SHIFT OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS CONTAINING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND
POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME
ISOLATED DURING THE EVENING HOURS FOR THOSE TRICK OR TREATING. SOME
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE LIGHT RAIN SPREADS BACK
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER WET SYSTEM ON TAP
FOR LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED MUCH OF
THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE NORTH
OREGON COAST AND SW WASHINGTON. WITH A QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH
RECORDED AT MANY SITES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. THE
COLD FRONT HAS SLOWED A BIT DURING THE DAY AND BECAME MORE
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED AS A SHORTWAVE DROPPED SOUTH OVER THE NE
PACIFIC. UTILIZING AN ASCAT PASS AROUND NOON PDT/19Z...A SIGNIFICANT
WIND SHIFT IS EVIDENT AND PLACED THE FRONT AROUND 65 NM OFFSHORE.
ADDITIONALLY...NWS DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY DATA AT THIS HOUR LOCATES
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AROUND 40NM FROM THE COAST. THEREFORE...THE MAIN
FRONTAL BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST AROUND 4 PM
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT. ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
AROUND 0.75 INCH TO ONE INCH FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER INLAND. BEHIND THE
FRONT...A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
SPREAD INTO THE AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THIS POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS WITH THE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE AS THE COLD
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER NEAR THE COAST...OR OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY MOVING
INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THOUGH A SLOWING OF THE FRONT COULD KEEP SOME
SHOWERS AROUND. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE CURRENT
INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY IF SOME AREAS SEE SOME CLEARING LATER
FRIDAY. AS THE COLDER AIR MASS SETS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP INTO THE 4500 TO 5000 FT RANGE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...THOUGH MOTORISTS TRAVELING OVER THE HIGHER CASCADE PASSES
INCLUDING SANTIAM AND WILLAMETTE SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR
AT LEAST ENOUGH SNOW TO IMPACT TRAVEL LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SLIDES INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY AND
SHOWERS END AS SOME WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NW AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY CLIP THE REGION. MORE STEADY RAIN
INCREASE LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES.   CULLEN
&&


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION BY MONDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A SYSTEM APPROACHING...BUT
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DO REMAIN IN TERMS OF THE LOCATION AND
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. SOME INDICATION THAT SOME SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH THE PATTERN DOES
APPEAR TO STAY A BIT PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE. THEREFORE...INCREASED POPS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER WET WEEK APPEARS IN STORE.CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...THE COLD FRONT IS NOT MOVING AS FAST AS ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT. AS SUCH WE CAN EXPECT FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BE ARRIVING ALONG
THE COAST WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL BE AROUND 01-03Z. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED IFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TOMORROW. MVFR CIGS AND VIS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. IFR CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY UNLIKELY BUT IF
THEY DO FORM THEY WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF IN NATURE. BREEZY EAST
WINDS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z. /64

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING.
THE PROGRESSION HAS NOT BEEN AS FAST AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. LATEST
OBS PLACE THE FRONT APPROXIMATELY 40 MI OFFSHORE. S WINDS WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE SCA FOR WINDS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY 7 PM
PDT. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA BEHIND THE FRONT. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS. SEAS APPROACHING 10 FT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FRI
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NW BY SAT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 PM
    THIS EVENING TO 1 AM PDT FRIDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 10 AM TO
     2 PM PDT FRIDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 302200
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
259 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS..STEADY RAIN WILL SHIFT OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS CONTAINING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND
POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME
ISOLATED DURING THE EVENING HOURS FOR THOSE TRICK OR TREATING. SOME
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE LIGHT RAIN SPREADS BACK
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER WET SYSTEM ON TAP
FOR LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED MUCH OF
THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE NORTH
OREGON COAST AND SW WASHINGTON. WITH A QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH
RECORDED AT MANY SITES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. THE
COLD FRONT HAS SLOWED A BIT DURING THE DAY AND BECAME MORE
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED AS A SHORTWAVE DROPPED SOUTH OVER THE NE
PACIFIC. UTILIZING AN ASCAT PASS AROUND NOON PDT/19Z...A SIGNIFICANT
WIND SHIFT IS EVIDENT AND PLACED THE FRONT AROUND 65 NM OFFSHORE.
ADDITIONALLY...NWS DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY DATA AT THIS HOUR LOCATES
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AROUND 40NM FROM THE COAST. THEREFORE...THE MAIN
FRONTAL BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST AROUND 4 PM
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT. ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
AROUND 0.75 INCH TO ONE INCH FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER INLAND. BEHIND THE
FRONT...A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
SPREAD INTO THE AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THIS POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS WITH THE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE AS THE COLD
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER NEAR THE COAST...OR OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY MOVING
INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THOUGH A SLOWING OF THE FRONT COULD KEEP SOME
SHOWERS AROUND. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE CURRENT
INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY IF SOME AREAS SEE SOME CLEARING LATER
FRIDAY. AS THE COLDER AIR MASS SETS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP INTO THE 4500 TO 5000 FT RANGE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...THOUGH MOTORISTS TRAVELING OVER THE HIGHER CASCADE PASSES
INCLUDING SANTIAM AND WILLAMETTE SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR
AT LEAST ENOUGH SNOW TO IMPACT TRAVEL LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SLIDES INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY AND
SHOWERS END AS SOME WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NW AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY CLIP THE REGION. MORE STEADY RAIN
INCREASE LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES.   CULLEN
&&


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION BY MONDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A SYSTEM APPROACHING...BUT
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DO REMAIN IN TERMS OF THE LOCATION AND
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. SOME INDICATION THAT SOME SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH THE PATTERN DOES
APPEAR TO STAY A BIT PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE. THEREFORE...INCREASED POPS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER WET WEEK APPEARS IN STORE.CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...THE COLD FRONT IS NOT MOVING AS FAST AS ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT. AS SUCH WE CAN EXPECT FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BE ARRIVING ALONG
THE COAST WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL BE AROUND 01-03Z. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED IFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TOMORROW. MVFR CIGS AND VIS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. IFR CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY UNLIKELY BUT IF
THEY DO FORM THEY WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF IN NATURE. BREEZY EAST
WINDS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z. /64

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING.
THE PROGRESSION HAS NOT BEEN AS FAST AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. LATEST
OBS PLACE THE FRONT APPROXIMATELY 40 MI OFFSHORE. S WINDS WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE SCA FOR WINDS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY 7 PM
PDT. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA BEHIND THE FRONT. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS. SEAS APPROACHING 10 FT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FRI
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NW BY SAT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 PM
    THIS EVENING TO 1 AM PDT FRIDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 10 AM TO
     2 PM PDT FRIDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 302149
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
249 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving frontal system will slowly move through the region
over the next 2 days. Rain will push up against the Cascades
tonight...before tracking across the region Friday and Friday
night. Rain in the Idaho Panhandle will likely linger into
Saturday. Cool and unsettled weather is expected to continue into
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday night...Afternoon satellite imagery shows
a deep low pressure system in the eastern Pacific out near 135W.
Current model guidance is matching up pretty well. The low is
expected to split tonight as a a short rounds the bottom of the
trough courtesy of a 130+ kt jet. With the jet parallel to the low
forward movement has been slowed. The accompanying cold front
isn`t expected to cross the Cascades until Friday evening between
00z-03z. As the trough digs the steering flow will become
increasingly southerly. The warm front eased in from the west-
northwest overnight...but as the flow becomes increasingly
southerly the warm front will retrograde back to the west and tuck
up against the east slopes of the Cascades this evening...before
slowly pushing through the forecast area Friday afternoon.

The cold front then tracks across the remainder of the forecast
area Friday night and stalls over the Idaho Panhandle. This puts
the focus for the best precipitation to the Idaho Panhandle. The
stratiform precipitation will change to showers with the
atmosphere drying from west to east.

Precipitation: I kept the chances for precipitation west of a
line from about Republic south to about Saddle mountain Wildlife
area for most of tonight and Friday. Aiding in the precipitation
production will be light east to southeast winds which will add an
orographic lift. Rain fall amounts will range from .10 to .15 for
the lower east slopes and the deep basin to around an inch near
the Cascade crest over the next 24 hours. Snow levels are pretty
high, around 6k feet and are not expected to drop below 5k feet
until after the frontal passage Friday night. By this time the
heaviest precipitation will be winding down. But the area near the
Cascade crest could certainly pick up several inches of fresh snow
in the showers following the cold front. Further to the east
precipitation will begin later but not be quite as wet. QPF from a
couple hundredths in the deep basin to around a third of an inch
in the Blue mountains and the central Panhandle mountains early
Saturday morning. Again snow levels will start out very high in
the warm sector precipitation and not drop below 5k feet until
later Saturday morning. So precipitation should be as mostly rain.

Temps and Wind: Temperatures will bump up 3-5 degrees Friday with
southerly winds and warm air advection. Pre-frontal winds from the
east-southeast will come around to the south-southwest Friday
afternoon and increase slightly. Winds 5-10 mph with gusts to 15
mph will be common as this is not expected to be a big wind event.
/Tobin

Saturday and Sunday: A trough pattern will slowly traversing
through the region during this period. Models are in good
agreement of timing and moisture associated with this system. With
strong cyclonic flow around the apex of the trough in NW Nevada, a
strong moist flow will push into the Idaho Panhandle and western
Montana. This is expected to bring precip to the Idaho Panhandle
and extreme eastern Washington. The bulk of the precip is expected
to fall on Saturday with snow levels above 5000 feet. Areas could
receive rain totals of at least a quarter of an inch in the Cams
Prairie area and around one inch near Mullan Pass. Snow levels
drop to around 4000 feet late Saturday but the bulk of moisture
and the trough will shift further East. This will allow for light
snow accumulation in the higher elevations near Lookout Pass. The
Cascades during this period are expected to fairly dry. Spill over
from the western Washington along the Cascades will bring some
light showers to the eastern side of the Cascades but precip
amounts will fairly small. The Columbia Basin is expected to be
dry during this weekend. Temperatures for this will period will be
near the season normals. Highs will range in the upper 40s to low
50s. Lows are expected to around mid 30s with some locations
expected to cross into freezing temperatures. /JDC

Monday and Tuesday: Shortwave ridge of higher pressure breaks down
and allows another moist Pacific storm system to push across the
region. This storm system will ride a 150 +kt jet streak directed
toward Vancouver Island. Much of the upper level dynamics
associated with the jet and vorticity maximum will remain north
of the region. This will result in a surface low that tracks
across central and northern BC from Monday night into Tuesday.
Precip will develop during the day on Monday with some decent
isentropic ascent ahead of the cold front. The cold front will
then swing across the region Tuesday morning. This is will result
in approximately 12-18 hours of light to moderate precip from
Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. All areas will see a good
chance for at least some light precip. Best accumulations are
expected across the Northeast Mtns over into the ID Panhandle with
storm totals of between 0.50 to 1.00 inches. Totals will be a bit
less out into the greater basin area with 0.25 to 0.50 inches
expected in the Spokane Area and on the Palouse; and up to a
quarter of an inch for most other locations around the region.
Snow levels will generally be up around 5,000 feet. They sill
start out a bit lower early Monday and then increase as the precip
moves in through Monday night.

Wednesday through Thursday: There will be another storm system
that moves through toward the end of the work week. A warm front
will push north across the region on Wednesday. This will result
in some light precip across the region. We may then see a little
bit of a break in the precip before the cold front pushes through
around Thursday. Models show a quick hitting cold front passage.
Strong upper level dynamics aloft looks to spin up a deepening
surface low pressure system from southern BC into southern
Alberta. This would create good packing of isobars across the
region for Thursday afternoon. Expect breezy to windy conditions
with this front. Wind highlights may be needed depending on how
strong this surface low gets. The 12Z model runs are the first to
show such strong cyclogenesis, so confidence at this point in
wind strength is low.

Expect fall like temperatures next week. Overnight low temperatures
will moderate out from the chilly temperatures expected this
weekend. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Light rain will linger across the western portions of
the forecast area through 12z Friday as a warm front stalls just
east of the Cascades. KEAT will remain wet with lower cigs
throughout. Expect conditions at KEAT to be quite variable with
conditions swinging from LIFR to MVFR and back constantly. KMWH
will be on the eastern edge of the precipitation and while
conditions should remain mostly VFR some fog may form over night.
Some light rain...sprinkles...will be possible for the eastern
zones through the afternoon, but conditions should remain VFR.
/Tobin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        45  56  42  48  34  49 /  10  50  50  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  43  58  43  46  34  48 /  10  40  50  70  40  10
Pullman        46  59  42  46  35  48 /  10  30  60  70  40  10
Lewiston       48  65  46  48  40  53 /  10  20  70  80  40  10
Colville       42  55  41  50  33  50 /  40  80  50  10  10   0
Sandpoint      39  57  41  47  35  47 /  10  40  60  70  40  20
Kellogg        42  59  41  45  35  44 /  10  20  70 100  60  30
Moses Lake     45  55  41  54  35  54 /  40  60  10  10  10   0
Wenatchee      46  55  39  55  39  56 /  90  90  10  10   0  10
Omak           43  52  37  51  34  52 /  90  90  20  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 302149
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
249 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving frontal system will slowly move through the region
over the next 2 days. Rain will push up against the Cascades
tonight...before tracking across the region Friday and Friday
night. Rain in the Idaho Panhandle will likely linger into
Saturday. Cool and unsettled weather is expected to continue into
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday night...Afternoon satellite imagery shows
a deep low pressure system in the eastern Pacific out near 135W.
Current model guidance is matching up pretty well. The low is
expected to split tonight as a a short rounds the bottom of the
trough courtesy of a 130+ kt jet. With the jet parallel to the low
forward movement has been slowed. The accompanying cold front
isn`t expected to cross the Cascades until Friday evening between
00z-03z. As the trough digs the steering flow will become
increasingly southerly. The warm front eased in from the west-
northwest overnight...but as the flow becomes increasingly
southerly the warm front will retrograde back to the west and tuck
up against the east slopes of the Cascades this evening...before
slowly pushing through the forecast area Friday afternoon.

The cold front then tracks across the remainder of the forecast
area Friday night and stalls over the Idaho Panhandle. This puts
the focus for the best precipitation to the Idaho Panhandle. The
stratiform precipitation will change to showers with the
atmosphere drying from west to east.

Precipitation: I kept the chances for precipitation west of a
line from about Republic south to about Saddle mountain Wildlife
area for most of tonight and Friday. Aiding in the precipitation
production will be light east to southeast winds which will add an
orographic lift. Rain fall amounts will range from .10 to .15 for
the lower east slopes and the deep basin to around an inch near
the Cascade crest over the next 24 hours. Snow levels are pretty
high, around 6k feet and are not expected to drop below 5k feet
until after the frontal passage Friday night. By this time the
heaviest precipitation will be winding down. But the area near the
Cascade crest could certainly pick up several inches of fresh snow
in the showers following the cold front. Further to the east
precipitation will begin later but not be quite as wet. QPF from a
couple hundredths in the deep basin to around a third of an inch
in the Blue mountains and the central Panhandle mountains early
Saturday morning. Again snow levels will start out very high in
the warm sector precipitation and not drop below 5k feet until
later Saturday morning. So precipitation should be as mostly rain.

Temps and Wind: Temperatures will bump up 3-5 degrees Friday with
southerly winds and warm air advection. Pre-frontal winds from the
east-southeast will come around to the south-southwest Friday
afternoon and increase slightly. Winds 5-10 mph with gusts to 15
mph will be common as this is not expected to be a big wind event.
/Tobin

Saturday and Sunday: A trough pattern will slowly traversing
through the region during this period. Models are in good
agreement of timing and moisture associated with this system. With
strong cyclonic flow around the apex of the trough in NW Nevada, a
strong moist flow will push into the Idaho Panhandle and western
Montana. This is expected to bring precip to the Idaho Panhandle
and extreme eastern Washington. The bulk of the precip is expected
to fall on Saturday with snow levels above 5000 feet. Areas could
receive rain totals of at least a quarter of an inch in the Cams
Prairie area and around one inch near Mullan Pass. Snow levels
drop to around 4000 feet late Saturday but the bulk of moisture
and the trough will shift further East. This will allow for light
snow accumulation in the higher elevations near Lookout Pass. The
Cascades during this period are expected to fairly dry. Spill over
from the western Washington along the Cascades will bring some
light showers to the eastern side of the Cascades but precip
amounts will fairly small. The Columbia Basin is expected to be
dry during this weekend. Temperatures for this will period will be
near the season normals. Highs will range in the upper 40s to low
50s. Lows are expected to around mid 30s with some locations
expected to cross into freezing temperatures. /JDC

Monday and Tuesday: Shortwave ridge of higher pressure breaks down
and allows another moist Pacific storm system to push across the
region. This storm system will ride a 150 +kt jet streak directed
toward Vancouver Island. Much of the upper level dynamics
associated with the jet and vorticity maximum will remain north
of the region. This will result in a surface low that tracks
across central and northern BC from Monday night into Tuesday.
Precip will develop during the day on Monday with some decent
isentropic ascent ahead of the cold front. The cold front will
then swing across the region Tuesday morning. This is will result
in approximately 12-18 hours of light to moderate precip from
Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. All areas will see a good
chance for at least some light precip. Best accumulations are
expected across the Northeast Mtns over into the ID Panhandle with
storm totals of between 0.50 to 1.00 inches. Totals will be a bit
less out into the greater basin area with 0.25 to 0.50 inches
expected in the Spokane Area and on the Palouse; and up to a
quarter of an inch for most other locations around the region.
Snow levels will generally be up around 5,000 feet. They sill
start out a bit lower early Monday and then increase as the precip
moves in through Monday night.

Wednesday through Thursday: There will be another storm system
that moves through toward the end of the work week. A warm front
will push north across the region on Wednesday. This will result
in some light precip across the region. We may then see a little
bit of a break in the precip before the cold front pushes through
around Thursday. Models show a quick hitting cold front passage.
Strong upper level dynamics aloft looks to spin up a deepening
surface low pressure system from southern BC into southern
Alberta. This would create good packing of isobars across the
region for Thursday afternoon. Expect breezy to windy conditions
with this front. Wind highlights may be needed depending on how
strong this surface low gets. The 12Z model runs are the first to
show such strong cyclogenesis, so confidence at this point in
wind strength is low.

Expect fall like temperatures next week. Overnight low temperatures
will moderate out from the chilly temperatures expected this
weekend. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Light rain will linger across the western portions of
the forecast area through 12z Friday as a warm front stalls just
east of the Cascades. KEAT will remain wet with lower cigs
throughout. Expect conditions at KEAT to be quite variable with
conditions swinging from LIFR to MVFR and back constantly. KMWH
will be on the eastern edge of the precipitation and while
conditions should remain mostly VFR some fog may form over night.
Some light rain...sprinkles...will be possible for the eastern
zones through the afternoon, but conditions should remain VFR.
/Tobin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        45  56  42  48  34  49 /  10  50  50  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  43  58  43  46  34  48 /  10  40  50  70  40  10
Pullman        46  59  42  46  35  48 /  10  30  60  70  40  10
Lewiston       48  65  46  48  40  53 /  10  20  70  80  40  10
Colville       42  55  41  50  33  50 /  40  80  50  10  10   0
Sandpoint      39  57  41  47  35  47 /  10  40  60  70  40  20
Kellogg        42  59  41  45  35  44 /  10  20  70 100  60  30
Moses Lake     45  55  41  54  35  54 /  40  60  10  10  10   0
Wenatchee      46  55  39  55  39  56 /  90  90  10  10   0  10
Omak           43  52  37  51  34  52 /  90  90  20  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 301825
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1125 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving frontal system will spread clouds and rain across
the region today and Friday, with the highest rain chances limited
to the Cascades. This precipitation will then spread east into
eastern Washington and north Idaho on Friday. Rain in the Idaho
Panhandle will likely linger into Saturday. Cool and unsettled
weather is expected to continue into next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Stratiform precipitation continues across the western zones this
afternoon west of a line from about Metaline Falls to the Tri-
Cities. This warm front is expected to buckle to the northwest
through the afternoon. This will result in the precipitation
shifting back to the west mainly along the east slopes and
possibly the western basin and the Okanogan valley. This is
handled nicely in the current forecast...although some minor
tweaks will be possible. The warm front is expected to remain
stalled across the western zones through early Friday morning
before beginning to shift eastward. So a fine line from the
heavier precipitation along the east slopes and maybe some
sprinkles across the southeast zones. Cloud cover has kept the
temperatures from climbing too much today, but some sun breaks
across the southeast will allow temperatures to warm up into the
lower 60s...then temperatures drop off rapidly to the west and
northwest. Current max temperatures look okay and see no
significant changes

An area of deeper moisture and lift moved through the southeast
zones this morning and will continue to move into Shoshone county
through the early afternoon. Some light precipitation has been
observed around L-C valley so far with amounts from a trace to a
hundredth. Expect that to be the same of the central Panhandle
through the afternoon. /Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Light rain will linger across the western portions of
the forecast area through 12z Friday as a warm front stalls just
east of the Cascades. KEAT will remain wet with lower cigs
throughout. Expect conditions at KEAT to be quite variable with
conditions swinging from LIFR to MVFR and back constantly. KMWH
will be on the eastern edge of the precipitation and while
conditions should remain mostly VFR some fog may form over night.
Some light rain...sprinkles...will be possible for the eastern
zones through the afternoon, but conditions should remain VFR.
/Tobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  44  56  41  49  34 /  40  10  60  50  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  55  42  58  42  47  34 /  30  10  30  50  50  30
Pullman        59  46  59  42  48  35 /  20  10  30  70  50  20
Lewiston       64  47  64  46  50  39 /  10  10  20  70  60  20
Colville       52  42  56  40  50  33 /  90  40  70  60  10  10
Sandpoint      51  39  57  40  47  35 /  30  10  30  60  50  30
Kellogg        53  41  59  40  45  35 /  10  10  20  70  80  40
Moses Lake     56  45  56  41  55  35 /  60  50  70  20  10  10
Wenatchee      51  45  55  39  53  36 / 100  90  90  10  10  10
Omak           52  42  53  37  50  33 / 100  90  90  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 301709
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1009 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AFTER A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY...STEADIER RAIN WILL
SHIFT OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS
CONTAINING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME ISOLATED DURING THE
EVENING HOURS FOR THOSE TRICK OR TREATING. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE LIGHT RAIN SPREADS BACK ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER WET SYSTEM ON TAP FOR LATE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR DEPICTS RAIN SHOWERS...SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY...CONTINUING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...PREDOMINATELY NORTH OF A LINCOLN CITY TO MT HOOD LINE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BREAK IN RAIN ACTIVITY BETWEEN THE
LIFTING WARM FRONT AND ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THIS.
THEREFORE LOWERED POPS A BIT THROUGH THIS MORNING FOR LINN AND
INTERIOR LANE COUNTIES.

MEANWHILE...CAMERAS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT SOME LOCALLY DENSE
FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. IMAGES
DEPICT A RELATIVELY SHALLOW LAYER AND EXPECT THIS TO MIX OUT BY
MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND DETAILS IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION REMAIN VALID.  CULLEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A LARGE DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 140W. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...AN OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE IS BEING RE-ENERGIZED AND LIFTING
BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS TAPPED INTO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 TO
1.25 INCHES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BROKEN OUT ACROSS WESTERN
OREGON AND WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE ONLY RESULTED IN
A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING.
WITH CLOUD TOPS CONTINUING TO COOL TO OUR SOUTH...EXPECT OFF AND ON
LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH PERHAPS
A MORE EXTENDED BREAK IN THE RAIN TOWARDS LANE AND LINN COUNTIES
LATER THIS MORNING. A MORE CONSOLIDATED REGION OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY
LIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON
COAST...A PRELUDE OF THINGS TO COME TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR 130W WILL PUSH EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH GOOD LOW AND MID LEVEL
SUPPORT...EXPECT A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST BAND OF RAIN TO
SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST TODAY...BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE
INTERIOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
APPEAR LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
RAIN TOTALS IN THE 0.50 TO 1.00 RANGE FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS.
THIS FRONT MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO SLOW DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING MORE THAN CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DUE TO A 120 KT
JET DIGGING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

ONCE THE STEADIER RAIN SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY...A MUCH
COOLER AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO POP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHIFTS
EAST OF THE AREA. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT BUBBLE UP. OCEAN TEMPERATURES CERTAINLY
SUPPORT THUNDER NEAR THE COAST...AND DEPENDING ON CLEARING OVER THE
INTERIOR...A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD BECOME MUCH
MORE ISOLATED FRIDAY EVENING AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MOST TRICK OR TREATERS STAYING DRY FRIDAY
EVENING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER INTO
THE 4500 TO 5000 FT RANGE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIMITED OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY UNDER WINTER WX ADVISORY CRITERIA. NONETHELESS...HIGHER
PASSES LIKE SANTIAM PASS AND WILLAMETTE PASSES SHOULD STILL SEE
ENOUGH SNOW TO AT LEAST IMPACT TRAVEL OFF AND ON FRIDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY SATURDAY...EVEN IF ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.

A WEAK WARM FRONT SPREADING EASTWARD MAY BRING LIGHT RAIN TO OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. /NEUMAN
&&


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED...MODELS SEEM TO CONVERGING ON THE IDEA OF A
CONSOLIDATED...BUT TRANSIENT FRONT BRINGING A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN TO
THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LOW END CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY POPS
WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE BRUNT OF THE QPF LOOKS
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND POINTS NORTHWARD. WITH
ZONAL FLOW TO FOLLOW...POPS WERE KEPT A BIT ABOVE CLIMO IN THE FAR
EXTENDED. /NEUMAN

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND NORTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL
EXPERIENCE LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH AT
19Z. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR VIS AND CIGS
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. EXPECT FRONTAL
PASSAGE ALONG THE COAST AROUND 21Z AND INLAND AROUND 00Z.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE NORTH OREGON COAST AND WILL
INDUCE A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CASCADES WITH EAST
WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT POSSIBLE AT KTTD THROUGH 21Z. EXPECT
LIGHTER EASTERLY WINDS AT KPDX.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AND VIS TODAY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. IFR CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY UNLIKELY BUT IF
THEY DO FORM THEY WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF IN NATURE. BREEZY EAST
WINDS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z. /27/64

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY. S WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT EXPECTED. THE SCA FOR
WINDS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS QUIET
DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER....THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF TSTMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NW BY SAT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

SEAS MAY CLIMB TO 10 FT AS WINDS PEAK TODAY BUT IT SHOULD BE
BRIEF AND LOCALIZED IN NATURE. SEAS ABOVE 10 FT POSSIBLE FRI
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS WITH
A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. /27/64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 PM
     THIS EVENING TO 1 AM PDT FRIDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 301647
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
947 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WET PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS REGION LATE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
STEADY RAIN TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS BEHIND IT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY FOR SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT DUE TO WAVES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ALSO...THE FRONT WAS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW.

RAIN RATES ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO
STRONG UPWARD FORCING. THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS
WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN RATES OF A 0.10 TO 0.2 INCH PER HOUR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. IN FACT...A COUPLE OF GAGES ON THE
OLYMPIC RANGE RECORDED RAIN RATES OF NEAR 0.2 PER HOUR THIS
MORNING BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED. NWS DOPPLER RADARS SHOWED
A RELATIVE DRY SLOT MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST WA AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP ON THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF
THE CASCADES TONIGHT...CONTINUING INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. THE
STEADY PRECIP WILL BECOME SHOWERY FRI AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION FRI NIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED THAT THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WAS QUITE UNSTABLE.
THUS...STARTING TO WONDER WHETHER THE FORECAST FOR FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY IS TOO OPTIMISTIC.

.LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION...
CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD EARLY ON WITH THE
MODELS LOSING THEIR CONTINUITY BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG
THEMSELVES ON THE 00Z RUN. THE ECMWF WAS SLOWER IN EXITING THE
TROUGH ON SATURDAY...WHICH SLOWED DOWN THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT WAS TIMED INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. NOW IT IS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE GFS WAS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM
BUT STILL SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODELS. WITH THE GFS SOLUTION
SHOWING THE MOST CONTINUITY AT THIS POINT...WILL STAY WITH THE
LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. MODELS WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A WET
DAY ON MONDAY...WITH A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF WERE SHOWING AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SCENARIO SETTING UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE STRONGER AND WETTER OF THE TWO
MODELS. KEPT RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. FELTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RATHER SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING STEADY PRECIPITATION
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE LARGEST AMOUNTS
WILL FALL OVER THE OLYMPIC AND NORTH CASCADES WITH UP TO 3 INCHES
OF RAIN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN HIGH 7000
TO 8000 FEET. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN COULD ONCE AGAIN DRIVE THE
EXCEPTIONALLY FLOOD-PRONE SKOKOMISH RIVER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. IN
ADDITION...THE NOOKSACK RIVER WILL PROBABLY RISE SIGNIFICANTLY.
FLOODING THERE IS UNLIKELY BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...AND A
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK ADDRESSES THAT SITUATION.

AT THIS TIME FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ON THE OTHER RIVERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE AND MOIST.

SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS MOVING SLOWLY EAST. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE EASTERLY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TODAY AND THAT WILL KEEP CEILINGS 3000-5000 FEET OR HIGHER
IN THE INTERIOR TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH
SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS WHERE UPSLOPE STRATUS AROUND KCLM KEEPS
CONDITIONS THERE IFR. THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THEN STALLS AS IT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT. EXPECT CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO DROP TO MARGINAL VFR TONIGHT AS RAINFALL INCREASES
AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS COLLAPSE. ALBRECHT

KSEA...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO FALL FROM A CEILING 5000 FEET OR HIGHER
MOST OF TODAY WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 9-12 KT. CEILINGS WILL
FALL TO 2000-3000 FT WITH -RA AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR
AND STALLS AND PRES GRADIENTS BECOME WEAK. VISIBILITY WITH THE FRONT
00Z-03Z THIS EVENING MAY OCCASIONALLY FALL TO 5SM -RA BR. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW THE INCOMING FRONT OVER THE
EXTREME OUTER COASTAL WATERS SLOWLY MOVING EAST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
ONTO THE COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS THEN WILL STALL OVER
THE INLAND WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER ALL
WATERS EXCEPT PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL AND ADMIRALTY INLET.

EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND AND DISSIPATES
TONIGHT. THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY CONCERNS A WAVE THAT APPEARS ON
SATELLITE OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS. THE 12Z GFS
DEVELOPS A WAVE THAT MOVES NE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
AND IS FOLLOWED BY STRONG SWLY FLOW. THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF DO
NOT SHOW THIS WAVE BUT TAKE A WEAKER IMPULSE INLAND WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN THE WEAK WIND FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
AT THIS TIME.

WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATER FRI INTO SAT. THEN AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEGINNING SUN AND CONTINUING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTS MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS.
ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MASON COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT
     THE ADMIRALTY INLET AND PUGET SOUND/HOOD CANAL.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 301647
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
947 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WET PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS REGION LATE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
STEADY RAIN TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS BEHIND IT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY FOR SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT DUE TO WAVES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ALSO...THE FRONT WAS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW.

RAIN RATES ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO
STRONG UPWARD FORCING. THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS
WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN RATES OF A 0.10 TO 0.2 INCH PER HOUR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. IN FACT...A COUPLE OF GAGES ON THE
OLYMPIC RANGE RECORDED RAIN RATES OF NEAR 0.2 PER HOUR THIS
MORNING BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED. NWS DOPPLER RADARS SHOWED
A RELATIVE DRY SLOT MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST WA AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP ON THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF
THE CASCADES TONIGHT...CONTINUING INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. THE
STEADY PRECIP WILL BECOME SHOWERY FRI AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION FRI NIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED THAT THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WAS QUITE UNSTABLE.
THUS...STARTING TO WONDER WHETHER THE FORECAST FOR FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY IS TOO OPTIMISTIC.

.LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION...
CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD EARLY ON WITH THE
MODELS LOSING THEIR CONTINUITY BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG
THEMSELVES ON THE 00Z RUN. THE ECMWF WAS SLOWER IN EXITING THE
TROUGH ON SATURDAY...WHICH SLOWED DOWN THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT WAS TIMED INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. NOW IT IS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE GFS WAS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM
BUT STILL SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODELS. WITH THE GFS SOLUTION
SHOWING THE MOST CONTINUITY AT THIS POINT...WILL STAY WITH THE
LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. MODELS WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A WET
DAY ON MONDAY...WITH A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF WERE SHOWING AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SCENARIO SETTING UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE STRONGER AND WETTER OF THE TWO
MODELS. KEPT RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. FELTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RATHER SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING STEADY PRECIPITATION
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE LARGEST AMOUNTS
WILL FALL OVER THE OLYMPIC AND NORTH CASCADES WITH UP TO 3 INCHES
OF RAIN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN HIGH 7000
TO 8000 FEET. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN COULD ONCE AGAIN DRIVE THE
EXCEPTIONALLY FLOOD-PRONE SKOKOMISH RIVER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. IN
ADDITION...THE NOOKSACK RIVER WILL PROBABLY RISE SIGNIFICANTLY.
FLOODING THERE IS UNLIKELY BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...AND A
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK ADDRESSES THAT SITUATION.

AT THIS TIME FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ON THE OTHER RIVERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE AND MOIST.

SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS MOVING SLOWLY EAST. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE EASTERLY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TODAY AND THAT WILL KEEP CEILINGS 3000-5000 FEET OR HIGHER
IN THE INTERIOR TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH
SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS WHERE UPSLOPE STRATUS AROUND KCLM KEEPS
CONDITIONS THERE IFR. THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THEN STALLS AS IT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT. EXPECT CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO DROP TO MARGINAL VFR TONIGHT AS RAINFALL INCREASES
AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS COLLAPSE. ALBRECHT

KSEA...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO FALL FROM A CEILING 5000 FEET OR HIGHER
MOST OF TODAY WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 9-12 KT. CEILINGS WILL
FALL TO 2000-3000 FT WITH -RA AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR
AND STALLS AND PRES GRADIENTS BECOME WEAK. VISIBILITY WITH THE FRONT
00Z-03Z THIS EVENING MAY OCCASIONALLY FALL TO 5SM -RA BR. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW THE INCOMING FRONT OVER THE
EXTREME OUTER COASTAL WATERS SLOWLY MOVING EAST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
ONTO THE COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS THEN WILL STALL OVER
THE INLAND WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER ALL
WATERS EXCEPT PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL AND ADMIRALTY INLET.

EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND AND DISSIPATES
TONIGHT. THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY CONCERNS A WAVE THAT APPEARS ON
SATELLITE OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS. THE 12Z GFS
DEVELOPS A WAVE THAT MOVES NE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
AND IS FOLLOWED BY STRONG SWLY FLOW. THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF DO
NOT SHOW THIS WAVE BUT TAKE A WEAKER IMPULSE INLAND WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN THE WEAK WIND FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
AT THIS TIME.

WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATER FRI INTO SAT. THEN AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEGINNING SUN AND CONTINUING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTS MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS.
ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MASON COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT
     THE ADMIRALTY INLET AND PUGET SOUND/HOOD CANAL.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KOTX 301155
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
455 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving frontal system will spread clouds and rain across
the region today and Friday, with the highest rain chances limited
to the Cascades. This precipitation will then spread east into
eastern Washington and north Idaho on Friday. Rain in the Idaho
Panhandle will likely linger into Saturday. Cool and unsettled
weather is expected to continue into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight: The challenges for the first 24 hrs of the
fcst will be straightforward, centered around pcpn amnts and
areal coverage of fog and low clouds. Much of Ern Wa and N Idaho
has been dealing with residual sfc moisture left from the pcpn
event from Tues and Tues Nt, with clearing skies aloft allowing
for efficient maintenance of fog and low clouds. The regional
radar mosaic shows light stratiform pcpn spreading north across
cntrl Wa associated with ascent over a warm front boundary along
the Oregon/Wa border. It is this pcpn threat that will end any
dense fog this morning. But with sfc obs showing no more than a
hundredth or two reaching the sfc, pcpn amnts today will not be
impressive...likely following the overall driest GFS model. We
trended heavily toward this solution and tried to limit the
heavier amnts to the Cascades for later today and tonight. It`s
the Cascade zone that will see the cold front stall in place,
prolonging the pcpn threat. Farther to the east, including the
Idaho Panhandle and SE Wa, only light amnts of rain, if any, can
be expected as the warm front lifts quickly north. bz

Friday through Sunday: A moist but weakening cold front will
cross through the Inland Northwest on Friday bringing periods of
light rain. The front will cross the Cascades Friday morning then
inch its way into Eastern WA by early evening and to the ID/MT
border near midnight. The heaviest rainfall amounts are expected
near the Cascades early Friday when a fetch of subtropical
moisture is still streaming northward ahead of the front. As the
front begins its eastward migration, it will begin to lose its
structure and the deeper moisture will be pinched off bringing
pwats down from around an inch to 0.75". Consequently,
precipitation will be most intense Friday morning near the
Cascades and trend lighter across the Columbia Basin and upon
reaching the ID border. The exception will be in the northern
mountains where southerly flow will assist in lifting the
moisture into the higher terrain. High temperatures will be near
50F for most locations except southeastern WA and the lower ID
Panhandle which will have the best chance for some sun and mixing
increasing their chances to warm into the 60`s.

A significant slug of energy will eject from the base of the trough
over southern California Friday night and track northeast through
Nevada, southern Idaho, and Montana over the weekend. Models
continue to support a second area of low pressure deepening ahead
of this wave. Strengthening cyclonic flow within the deepening low
will and renew lift along the boundary and bring a narrow but
intense region of precipitation between NW Montana and NE Oregon
which will likely cross through portions of the ID Panhandle and
perhaps far southeastern WA. There is decent agreement related to
the large scale picture but each model has a different depiction
regarding how far west to expand the rainfall. Attm, Shoshone
County to the Camas Prairie is most favored to be in the axis of
heavier precipitation with lighter amounts extending toward the WA
border. Pops in the Camas Prairie and Central Panhandle Mtns also
reflect increasing northwest (upsloping) flow being drawn into
the low. In the ID Panhandle and Blue Mtns, snow levels will
start off high (6500`) but will come down Saturday night near 4500
feet as cooler air is drawn into the low. By the time snow levels
come down, most precipitation will be departing to the east but we
cannot rule out a short period of light snow near Lookout Pass
Sunday morning. The Cascades and western Basin will generally
experience a break in the wet weather through much of the weekend
but areas of fog and stratus are possible following the rainfall
Friday.

Monday through Wednesday: A fire-hose of atmospheric moisture will
become aimed at the Northwestern US bringing several more rounds
of precipitation, gusty winds, and mild temperatures. The first
round of precipitation will arrive Monday with the potential for
moderate to heavy amounts along the Cascade Crest and mountains
over Northeastern WA/Nrn ID. Lighter rainfall will spread into the
Upper Basin but strong westerly flow accompanying the pattern will
keep amounts very light due to shadowing off the Cascades. The
stream of moisture looks to get shoved south into northern Oregon
briefly on Tuesday with the passage of a shortwave trof but
quickly rebounds back northward and potentially migrates north
into southern BC by midweek as high pressure attempts to build
over the Northern Rockies. Confidence regarding the details are
far from certain and even as the firehose buckles north, it
appears the northern Cascades and mountains along the BC border
will stand a good chance to remain in the wet weather pattern.
Snow levels with this pattern will remain above all pass levels
accompanied by above normal temperatures. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: With light rain spreading north across Ern Wa and N
Idaho, any remaining strong near-sfc inversions capping a
fog/stratus lyr are weakening and allowing VFR conditions to
prevail. The rain is expected to be light, with the heaviest amnts
near the Cascades including KEAT. Even so, ceilings with rain are
expected to go no lower than MVFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  44  56  41  49  34 /  30  20  30  50  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  55  42  58  42  47  34 /  20  10  20  70  60  20
Pullman        59  46  59  42  48  35 /  10  10  10  70  60  20
Lewiston       64  47  64  46  50  39 /  10   0  10  80  60  20
Colville       52  42  56  40  50  33 /  60  30  70  50  20  10
Sandpoint      51  39  57  40  47  35 /  30  10  20  60  60  30
Kellogg        53  41  59  40  45  35 /  10  10  10  70  80  40
Moses Lake     56  45  56  41  55  35 /  60  30  60  20  10  10
Wenatchee      51  45  55  39  53  36 /  90  70  90  10  10  10
Omak           52  42  53  37  50  33 /  80  80  90  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 301101
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
400 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WET PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO WESTERN WASHINGTON LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH
THE STEADY RAIN CHANGING TO SHOWERS. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND JUST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY FOR
MORE RAIN...AND GENERALLY WET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FOR AT LEAST
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDY SKIES OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. DOPPLER AREAS PICKING UP JUST SOME
ISOLATED AREAS OF RAIN OVER THE INTERIOR WITH MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ECHOES OFF THE COAST AT 10Z/3 AM. TEMPERATURES WERE
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING NEAR 132W WITH MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT HAS TAPPED INTO SOME SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE SOUTH OF 30N OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST BUT TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THE TAP IS THINNING OUT
EARLY THIS MORNING. NARROW CORE OF 1 TO 1.5 TPW VALUES EMBEDDED IN
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH MOST OF THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN THE 0.75 TO 1 INCH RANGE. MODEL 850 MB WINDS PICKING UP
OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING TO NEAR 40 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTH SLOPES
OF THE OLYMPICS BUT THEN DIMINISH DOWN TO 20-25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH THE THINNING SUB TROPICAL TAP WILL
RESULT IN LESS RAINFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED TODAY. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW IT IS STILL NOT RAINING
ALONG THE NORTH OREGON COAST AND WITH THE DOPPLER RADARS SHOWING
PRETTY DISORGANIZED PRECIPITATION ECHOES WILL WORD THE FORECAST AS
RAIN AS TIMES THIS MORNING WITH THE STEADY RAIN AFTER THE MORNING
COMMUTE LATE THIS MORNING OR INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 60.

FRONT SLOWLY MOVING EAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE FRONTS EASTWARD MOVEMENT IN THE LAST
COUPLE OF RUNS HAS PICKED UP WITH THE FRONT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST BY
12Z/5AM FRIDAY. MODEL 850 MB WINDS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER WEAK...15
TO 25 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH SO WILL CUT BACK ON THE QPF AMOUNTS IN
THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES OVERNIGHT. WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S OVERNIGHT.

FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
STEADY RAIN GIVING WAY TO SHOWERS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN THE
LOWLANDS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.75 TO 1.50 INCH RANGE WITH 1.5
TO 3 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE SEATTLE WILL
PICK UP ENOUGH RAIN FOR THIS OCTOBER TO BREAK INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST AT SEA-TAC. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TEMPERATURE SPREAD ON
FRIDAY WITH THE COOLER AIR MASS ALOFT MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 50S.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON FRIDAY NIGHT
KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
RATHER COOL WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING DOWN TO AROUND 4500 FEET BUT
THE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF NEW
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH THE COLDER LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S.

MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE
THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON. LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE TROUGH PASSAGE TO MIDDAY SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF
DOES NOT BRING THE TROUGH THROUGH UNTIL LATE SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS
HAVE THE JET WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
DYNAMICS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. WILL STAY WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST THAT HAS THE SHOWER CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA AND THE CASCADES ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD EARLY
ON WITH THE MODELS LOSING THEIR CONTINUITY BOTH RUN TO RUN AND
AMONG THEMSELVES ON THE 00Z RUN. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER IN EXITING THE
TROUGH ON SATURDAY WHICH SLOWS DOWN THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
WHICH WAS TIMED INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. NOW IS IT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT STILL SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS MODELS. WITH THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWING THE MOST
CONTINUITY AT THIS POINT WILL STAY WITH THE LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY.
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A WET DAY ON MONDAY WITH A
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE SHOWING AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SCENARIO
SETTLING UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE
STRONGER AND THE WETTER OF THE TWO MODELS KEEPING RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FELTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A RATHER SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING STEADY
PRECIPITATION WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE LARGEST
AMOUNTS WILL FALL OVER THE OLYMPIC AND NORTH CASCADES WITH UP TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN HIGH
7000 TO 8000 FEET. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN COULD ONCE AGAIN DRIVE THE
EXCEPTIONALLY FLOOD-PRONE SKOKOMISH RIVER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THE
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SKOKOMISH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. IN ADDITION THE NOOKSACK RIVER WILL PROBABLY RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY. FLOODING THERE IS UNLIKELY BUT NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...AND A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK ADDRESSES THAT SITUATION.

AT THIS TIME FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ON THE OTHER RIVERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING AS RAIN BEGINS WITH CIGS EVENTUALLY LOWERING
THROUGH THE DAY....WITH LOW LEVEL SE FLOW OFF THE CASCADES IT MIGHT
TAKE QUITE AWHILE TO DROP UP AND DOWN THE I-5 CORRIDOR BUT THE
MOUNTAINS OUGHT TO BE OBSCURED IN PRECIP.

KSEA...RAIN WILL DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK. WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW CIGS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH TIL AFTERNOON WHEN THE FRONT
MOVES TROUGH THE INTERIOR OF WRN WA. CIGS WILL DROP FURTHER TONIGHT
IN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND STABLE AIR.

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH WESTERN WA TODAY WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS MOST WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FRI AND SAT. AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MASON COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE
     PUGET SOUND/HOOD CANAL.


&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KSEW 301101
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
400 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WET PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO WESTERN WASHINGTON LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH
THE STEADY RAIN CHANGING TO SHOWERS. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND JUST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY FOR
MORE RAIN...AND GENERALLY WET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FOR AT LEAST
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDY SKIES OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. DOPPLER AREAS PICKING UP JUST SOME
ISOLATED AREAS OF RAIN OVER THE INTERIOR WITH MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ECHOES OFF THE COAST AT 10Z/3 AM. TEMPERATURES WERE
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING NEAR 132W WITH MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT HAS TAPPED INTO SOME SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE SOUTH OF 30N OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST BUT TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THE TAP IS THINNING OUT
EARLY THIS MORNING. NARROW CORE OF 1 TO 1.5 TPW VALUES EMBEDDED IN
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH MOST OF THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN THE 0.75 TO 1 INCH RANGE. MODEL 850 MB WINDS PICKING UP
OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING TO NEAR 40 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTH SLOPES
OF THE OLYMPICS BUT THEN DIMINISH DOWN TO 20-25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH THE THINNING SUB TROPICAL TAP WILL
RESULT IN LESS RAINFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED TODAY. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW IT IS STILL NOT RAINING
ALONG THE NORTH OREGON COAST AND WITH THE DOPPLER RADARS SHOWING
PRETTY DISORGANIZED PRECIPITATION ECHOES WILL WORD THE FORECAST AS
RAIN AS TIMES THIS MORNING WITH THE STEADY RAIN AFTER THE MORNING
COMMUTE LATE THIS MORNING OR INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 60.

FRONT SLOWLY MOVING EAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE FRONTS EASTWARD MOVEMENT IN THE LAST
COUPLE OF RUNS HAS PICKED UP WITH THE FRONT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST BY
12Z/5AM FRIDAY. MODEL 850 MB WINDS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER WEAK...15
TO 25 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH SO WILL CUT BACK ON THE QPF AMOUNTS IN
THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES OVERNIGHT. WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S OVERNIGHT.

FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
STEADY RAIN GIVING WAY TO SHOWERS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN THE
LOWLANDS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.75 TO 1.50 INCH RANGE WITH 1.5
TO 3 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE SEATTLE WILL
PICK UP ENOUGH RAIN FOR THIS OCTOBER TO BREAK INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST AT SEA-TAC. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TEMPERATURE SPREAD ON
FRIDAY WITH THE COOLER AIR MASS ALOFT MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 50S.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON FRIDAY NIGHT
KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
RATHER COOL WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING DOWN TO AROUND 4500 FEET BUT
THE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF NEW
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH THE COLDER LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S.

MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE
THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON. LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE TROUGH PASSAGE TO MIDDAY SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF
DOES NOT BRING THE TROUGH THROUGH UNTIL LATE SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS
HAVE THE JET WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
DYNAMICS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. WILL STAY WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST THAT HAS THE SHOWER CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA AND THE CASCADES ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD EARLY
ON WITH THE MODELS LOSING THEIR CONTINUITY BOTH RUN TO RUN AND
AMONG THEMSELVES ON THE 00Z RUN. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER IN EXITING THE
TROUGH ON SATURDAY WHICH SLOWS DOWN THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
WHICH WAS TIMED INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. NOW IS IT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT STILL SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS MODELS. WITH THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWING THE MOST
CONTINUITY AT THIS POINT WILL STAY WITH THE LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY.
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A WET DAY ON MONDAY WITH A
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE SHOWING AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SCENARIO
SETTLING UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE
STRONGER AND THE WETTER OF THE TWO MODELS KEEPING RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FELTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A RATHER SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING STEADY
PRECIPITATION WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE LARGEST
AMOUNTS WILL FALL OVER THE OLYMPIC AND NORTH CASCADES WITH UP TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN HIGH
7000 TO 8000 FEET. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN COULD ONCE AGAIN DRIVE THE
EXCEPTIONALLY FLOOD-PRONE SKOKOMISH RIVER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THE
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SKOKOMISH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. IN ADDITION THE NOOKSACK RIVER WILL PROBABLY RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY. FLOODING THERE IS UNLIKELY BUT NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...AND A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK ADDRESSES THAT SITUATION.

AT THIS TIME FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ON THE OTHER RIVERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING AS RAIN BEGINS WITH CIGS EVENTUALLY LOWERING
THROUGH THE DAY....WITH LOW LEVEL SE FLOW OFF THE CASCADES IT MIGHT
TAKE QUITE AWHILE TO DROP UP AND DOWN THE I-5 CORRIDOR BUT THE
MOUNTAINS OUGHT TO BE OBSCURED IN PRECIP.

KSEA...RAIN WILL DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK. WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW CIGS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH TIL AFTERNOON WHEN THE FRONT
MOVES TROUGH THE INTERIOR OF WRN WA. CIGS WILL DROP FURTHER TONIGHT
IN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND STABLE AIR.

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH WESTERN WA TODAY WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS MOST WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FRI AND SAT. AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MASON COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE
     PUGET SOUND/HOOD CANAL.


&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KOTX 300950
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
250 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving frontal system will spread clouds and rain across
the region today and Friday, with the highest rain chances limited
to the Cascades. This precipitation will then spread east into
eastern Washington and north Idaho on Friday. Rain in the Idaho
Panhandle will likely linger into Saturday. Cool and unsettled
weather is expected to continue into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and Tonight: The challenges for the first 24 hrs of the
fcst will be straightforward, centered around pcpn amnts and
areal coverage of fog and low clouds. Much of Ern Wa and N Idaho
has been dealing with residual sfc moisture left from the pcpn
event from Tues and Tues Nt, with clearing skies aloft allowing
for efficient maintenance of fog and low clouds. The regional
radar mosaic shows light stratiform pcpn spreading north across
cntrl Wa associated with ascent over a warm front boundary along
the Oregon/Wa border. It is this pcpn threat that will end any
dense fog this morning. But with sfc obs showing no more than a
hundredth or two reaching the sfc, pcpn amnts today will not be
impressive...likely following the overall driest GFS model. We
trended heavily toward this solution and tried to limit the
heavier amnts to the Cascades for later today and tonight. It`s
the Cascade zone that will see the cold front stall in place,
prolonging the pcpn threat. Farther to the east, including the
Idaho Panhandle and SE Wa, only light amnts of rain, if any, can
be expected as the warm front lifts quickly north. bz

Friday through Sunday: A moist but weakening cold front will
cross through the Inland Northwest on Friday bringing periods of
light rain. The front will cross the Cascades Friday morning then
inch its way into Eastern WA by early evening and to the ID/MT
border near midnight. The heaviest rainfall amounts are expected
near the Cascades early Friday when a fetch of subtropical
moisture is still streaming northward ahead of the front. As the
front begins its eastward migration, it will begin to lose its
structure and the deeper moisture will be pinched off bringing
pwats down from around an inch to 0.75". Consequently,
precipitation will be most intense Friday morning near the
Cascades and trend lighter across the Columbia Basin and upon
reaching the ID border. The exception will be in the northern
mountains where southerly flow will assist in lifting the
moisture into the higher terrain. High temperatures will be near
50F for most locations except southeastern WA and the lower ID
Panhandle which will have the best chance for some sun and mixing
increasing their chances to warm into the 60`s.

A significant slug of energy will eject from the base of the trough
over southern California Friday night and track northeast through
Nevada, southern Idaho, and Montana over the weekend. Models
continue to support a second area of low pressure deepening ahead
of this wave. Strengthening cyclonic flow within the deepening low
will and renew lift along the boundary and bring a narrow but
intense region of precipitation between NW Montana and NE Oregon
which will likely cross through portions of the ID Panhandle and
perhaps far southeastern WA. There is decent agreement related to
the large scale picture but each model has a different depiction
regarding how far west to expand the rainfall. Attm, Shoshone
County to the Camas Prairie is most favored to be in the axis of
heavier precipitation with lighter amounts extending toward the WA
border. Pops in the Camas Prairie and Central Panhandle Mtns also
reflect increasing northwest (upsloping) flow being drawn into
the low. In the ID Panhandle and Blue Mtns, snow levels will
start off high (6500`) but will come down Saturday night near 4500
feet as cooler air is drawn into the low. By the time snow levels
come down, most precipitation will be departing to the east but we
cannot rule out a short period of light snow near Lookout Pass
Sunday morning. The Cascades and western Basin will generally
experience a break in the wet weather through much of the weekend
but areas of fog and stratus are possible following the rainfall
Friday.

Monday through Wednesday: A fire-hose of atmospheric moisture will
become aimed at the Northwestern US bringing several more rounds
of precipitation, gusty winds, and mild temperatures. The first
round of precipitation will arrive Monday with the potential for
moderate to heavy amounts along the Cascade Crest and mountains
over Northeastern WA/Nrn ID. Lighter rainfall will spread into the
Upper Basin but strong westerly flow accompanying the pattern will
keep amounts very light due to shadowing off the Cascades. The
stream of moisture looks to get shoved south into northern Oregon
briefly on Tuesday with the passage of a shortwave trof but
quickly rebounds back northward and potentially migrates north
into southern BC by midweek as high pressure attempts to build
over the Northern Rockies. Confidence regarding the details are
far from certain and even as the firehose buckles north, it
appears the northern Cascades and mountains along the BC border
will stand a good chance to remain in the wet weather pattern.
Snow levels with this pattern will remain above all pass levels
accompanied by above normal temperatures. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Reformation and expanding areas of fog and low clouds
will have some impact on aviation areas overnight and into
Tomorrow morning. Additionally another well wrapped up occluded
frontal zone spreads mid and high clouds with some precipitation
behind it in a manner more like a warm front after 18Z Thursday
and on. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  44  56  41  49  34 /  30  20  30  50  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  55  42  58  42  47  34 /  20  10  20  70  60  20
Pullman        59  46  59  42  48  35 /  10  10  10  70  60  20
Lewiston       64  47  64  46  50  39 /  10   0  10  80  60  20
Colville       52  42  56  40  50  33 /  60  30  70  50  20  10
Sandpoint      51  39  57  40  47  35 /  30  10  20  60  60  30
Kellogg        53  41  59  40  45  35 /  10  10  10  70  80  40
Moses Lake     56  45  56  41  55  35 /  60  30  60  20  10  10
Wenatchee      51  45  55  39  53  36 /  90  70  90  10  10  10
Omak           52  42  53  37  50  33 /  80  80  90  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 300944
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
237 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AFTER A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY...STEADIER RAIN WILL
SHIFT OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT SHOWERS
CONTAINING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND POSSIBLY A CLAP OR TWO
OF THUNDER TO BUBBLE UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY
BECOME ISOLATED DURING THE EVENING HOURS FOR THOSE TRICK OR TREATING.
HIT OR MISS SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE LIGHT RAIN
SPREADS BACK ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY. ANOTHER WET SYSTEM
APPEARS ON TAP FOR LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A LARGE DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 140W. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...AN OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE IS BEING RE-ENERGIZED AND LIFTING
BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS TAPPED INTO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 TO
1.25 INCHES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BROKEN OUT ACROSS WESTERN
OREGON AND WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE ONLY RESULTED IN
A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING.
WITH CLOUD TOPS CONTINUING TO COOL TO OUR SOUTH...EXPECT OFF AND ON
LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH PERHAPS
A MORE EXTENDED BREAK IN THE RAIN TOWARDS LANE AND LINN COUNTIES
LATER THIS MORNING. A MORE CONSOLIDATED REGION OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY
LIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON
COAST...A PRELUDE OF THINGS TO COME TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR 130W WILL PUSH EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH GOOD LOW AND MID LEVEL
SUPPORT...EXPECT A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST BAND OF RAIN TO
SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST TODAY...BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE
INTERIOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
APPEAR LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
RAIN TOTALS IN THE 0.50 TO 1.00 RANGE FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS.
THIS FRONT MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO SLOW DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING MORE THAN CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DUE TO A 120 KT
JET DIGGING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

ONCE THE STEADIER RAIN SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY...A MUCH
COOLER AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO POP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHIFTS
EAST OF THE AREA. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT BUBBLE UP. OCEAN TEMPERATURES CERTAINLY
SUPPORT THUNDER NEAR THE COAST...AND DEPENDING ON CLEARING OVER THE
INTERIOR...A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD BECOME MUCH
MORE ISOLATED FRIDAY EVENING AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MOST TRICK OR TREATERS STAYING DRY FRIDAY
EVENING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER INTO
THE 4500 TO 5000 FT RANGE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIMITED OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY UNDER WINTER WX ADVISORY CRITERIA. NONETHELESS...HIGHER
PASSES LIKE SANTIAM PASS AND WILLAMETTE PASSES SHOULD STILL SEE
ENOUGH SNOW TO AT LEAST IMPACT TRAVEL OFF AND ON FRIDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY SATURDAY...EVEN IF ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.

A WEAK WARM FRONT SPREADING EASTWARD MAY BRING LIGHT RAIN TO OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. /NEUMAN

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED...MODELS SEEM TO CONVERGING ON THE IDEA OF A
CONSOLIDATED...BUT TRANSIENT FRONT BRINGING A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN TO
THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LOW END CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY POPS
WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE BRUNT OF THE QPF LOOKS
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND POINTS NORTHWARD. WITH
ZONAL FLOW TO FOLLOW...POPS WERE KEPT A BIT ABOVE CLIMO IN THE FAR
EXTENDED. /NEUMAN

&&

.AVIATION...OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS RAIN MOVES NORTH OVER THE
AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS FOR LOCAL IFR/LIFR VIS AND CIGS IN
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY THROUGH 14-16Z THIS
MORNING. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY 12Z-16Z TODAY AS WELL. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OFF THE NORTH OREGON COAST AND WILL INDUCE A MODERATE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CASCADES WITH EAST WIND GUSTS 25 TO
30 KT POSSIBLE AT KTTD THROUGH 21Z. EXPECT LIGHTER EASTERLY WINDS
AT KPDX.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST UNTIL A WARM FRONT
NEARS THE TERMINAL BY 12Z. MVFR/IFR CIGS AROUND 1500-2500 FT WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 16-17Z THIS MORNING. BREEZY EAST WINDS
INCREASE AFTER 14Z...WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE. /27

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
SE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO SOUTHERLY LATER THIS MORNING AND
INCREASE WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT EXPECTED. THE SCA FOR WINDS
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS QUIET DOWN
BEHIND THE FRONT BY FRIDAY...TURNING NORTHERLY BY SATURDAY.
WINDS REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA INTO THE WEEKEND.

COMBINED SEAS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH NEAR 10 FT AS WINDS PEAK THIS
MORNING BUT FEEL IT WILL BE BRIEF AND MORE LOCALIZED IN NATURE.
THE NEXT UPPER LOW MAY SEND ANOTHER PUSH OF SEAS ABOVE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND PERHAPS A STRONGER SYSTEM TUE/WED.
/JBONK/27

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 PM
     THIS EVENING TO 1 AM PDT FRIDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 300525
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1025 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving frontal system will spread clouds and rain into
Washington Thursday and Friday. Rain chances on Thursday will be
the best over western and central Washington. Precipitation
will spread into eastern Washington and north Idaho on Friday.
Rain in the Idaho Panhandle will likely linger into Saturday. Cool
and unsettled weather is expected to continue into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Forecast was updated earlier this evening to expand the mention of
fog and low clouds to earlier intervals of the forecast. Slight
cooling to some of the overnight low forecast temperatures made as
well. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Reformation and expanding areas of fog and low clouds
will have some impact on aviatio areas overnight and into
Tomorrow morning. Additionally another well wrapped up occluded
frontal zone spreads mid and high clouds with some precipitation
behind it in a manner more like a warm front after 18Z Thursday
and on. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        41  54  44  56  42  49 /   0  30  20  30  50  30
Coeur d`Alene  38  55  42  58  42  48 /  10  20  10  20  60  40
Pullman        41  59  46  59  43  47 /   0  10  10  20  60  50
Lewiston       44  64  47  62  46  50 /   0  10  10  20  60  50
Colville       39  52  42  56  40  54 /  10  60  30  60  50  20
Sandpoint      41  51  39  56  41  48 /  10  30  10  20  60  50
Kellogg        41  53  41  59  41  45 /  10  10  10  10  70  70
Moses Lake     43  56  45  56  41  55 /  10  60  30  60  20  10
Wenatchee      44  51  45  55  39  55 /  10  90  70  60  20  10
Omak           41  52  42  54  36  53 /   0  80  70  70  30  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 300417
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
915 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH ACROSS
NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE A MOIST COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECT SMALL
HAIL WITH THE SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE CASCADE PASSES...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER ORGANIZED FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A LOOK AT THE LATEST WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS OFFSHORE
APPROACHING THE PAC NW TONIGHT. ONE LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS FORMED
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION AS A COLD
FRONT YESTERDAY AND IS NOW LIFTING THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTHWARD OVER N
CA AND OREGON TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. A BAND OF HIGH BASED ECHOES IS
SHOWING UP ON DOPPLER RADAR FROM THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST UP INTO THE
N OREGON CASCADES. THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING LIGHT
RAIN IS BEGINNING TO REACH THE GROUND...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE. EXPECT RAIN TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
FOCUS SHIFTING FURTHER NORTH. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE FCST
MODELS ARE UNDER-DOING THE WARM FRONTAL RAIN. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERNIGHT...AND AMSU SATELLITE DERIVED
IMAGERY IS SHOWING A NARROW 1 TO 1.2 INCH SUBTROPICAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PLUME FEEDING INTO THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. TAKING THIS INTO
ACCOUNT AND CONSIDERING THAT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE
ALREADY FAIRLY MOIST...WILL INCREASE OUR OVERNIGHT QPF A BIT.

THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL MERGE WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRAILING CLOSELY BEHIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
TOMORROW MORNING OFFSHORE AND PUSH ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
MOVING INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL RETAIN SOME OF THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND PRODUCE FAIRLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TOTALS AROUND 1 TO 2 ADDITIONAL INCHES
ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN...AND AROUND AN INCH FOR THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS FOR THE
MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME...BUT THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
AND COULD POND ON THE ROADS OR FLOOD AREAS WHERE DRAINS ARE CLOGGED.

THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS FILLING IN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE QUITE THE
CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES AND AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CHANGE FROM
NEGATIVE 16 DEG C AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO NEGATIVE 30 DEG C BEHIND IT.
THE AIR WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT AND THERE MAY BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS...OR MORE
LIKELY...SMALL HAIL.

FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE
SHOWERS WILL EASE FRIDAY...HALLOWEEN EVENING. HOWEVER...THIS COULD
CHANGE IF THE MODELS SLOW THE TIMING OF WHEN THE MERGED COLD FRONT
MOVES ONSHORE. AS FOR NOW THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE TRICK-OR-TREATERS
MAY HAVE BREAKS IN THE RAIN FOR THEIR EVENING ADVENTURES.

SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER FRIDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE CASCADE
PASSES FRIDAY EVENING AS THE PRECIPITATION DWINDLES. EXPECT
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE PASSES WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION. HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ABOVE 5000 FEET...MAY MEASURE 2 TO
6 INCHES OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES SATURDAY AS A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NW. ANY CLEARING OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RADIATION FOG FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS
SATURDAY MORNING. PYLE/TJ

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS INTO EASTERN OREGON SATURDAY NIGHT PROVIDING FOR WEAK
RIDGING AND ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS...THOUGH A WARM FRONTAL BAND MAY BRING
SOME RAIN TO THE NORTHERN ZONES. WHILE MODELS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
SOMETIME EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SYSTEMS
THAT LOOK TO KEEP THE REGION IN A WET AND FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN FORECAST
MODELS...GENERALIZED ABOVE CLIMO POPS ACROSS THE CWA FOR TUE AND WED
WITH LIKELY REFINEMENT IN THE COMING DAYS AS MODELS BEGIN TO CONVERGE
ON THE DEVELOPING PATTERN.
CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN MOVING NORTH INTO THE AREA AND SATURATING LOWER
LEVELS...THUS BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATE TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS WILL BE KHIO AND IFR VSBYS
KSLE AND KAST. WITH CALM WINDS...ONP HAS ALREADY DROPPED TO LIFR
BUT SUSPECT IT MAY RECOVER SLIGHTLY WITH RAIN ONSET WITHIN NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE NORTH OREGON
COAST AND WILL INDUCE A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CASCADES WITH EAST WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT POSSIBLE AT KTTD BETWEEN
9Z AND 21Z. EXPECT LIGHTER EASTERLY WINDS AT KPDX.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR UNTIL AROUND 08Z WHEN VISUAL
APPROACHES WILL BE IMPACTED BY LOWERING CIGS. FINALLY...MIGHT SEE
A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS CLOSER TO 12Z AS A WARM FRONT NEARS THE
TERMINAL. BREEZY EAST WINDS WITH GUSTS PERHAPS 15-20 KT SHOULD
INHIBIT LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
BOWEN/JBONK

&&

.MARINE...FORECAST MOSTLY ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS LINGERING AROUND 9 FT BUT WILL
DECREASE TO AROUND 7 FT OVERNIGHT WITH TREND ALREADY VISIBLE AT
BUOY 89. SCA FOR WINDS LOOKS GOOD AS WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. TWEAKED WINDS AND WAVES A BIT BUT WITH
NO MAJOR CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. BOWEN

WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY SOUTHERLY AND LESS THAN 15 KT
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH A SHALLOW SURFACE TROUGH SWINGING
NORTH ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. NOW
EXPECT A FAIRLY SOLID SMALL CRAFT WIND EVENT FOR THE OUTER WATERS
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT AND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT AROUND
MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. AN
OVERALL OFFSHORE GRADIENT SHOULD INHIBIT INNER WATER WIND SPEEDS
UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK. AN INNER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS HAS
ALSO BEEN ISSUED AND LOOKS TO BE MAINLY A 20 TO 25 KT GUST
POTENTIAL EVENT.

COMBINED SEAS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH ABOVE 10 FT AS WINDS PEAK THU
MORNING BUT FEEL IT WILL BE BRIEF AND MORE LOCALIZED IN NATURE.
THE NEXT UPPER LOW MAY SEND ANOTHER PUSH OF SEAS ABOVE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND PERHAPS A STRONGER SYSTEM TUE/WED.
/JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD
     OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 11 PM
    PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KSEW 300346
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WET PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. STEADY RAIN WILL TURN TO SHOWERS FRIDAY...WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE SUNDAY FOR MORE RAIN...AND GENERALLY WET WEATHER WILL BE THE
RULE FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST...WHILE AN OFFSHORE UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING
SLIGHTLY AS IT APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE IS A FAIRLY
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND IT IS CARRYING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE. IN THE MEANTIME LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON IS
TURNING WEAKLY OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH MAINLY HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE GIVING US MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES AT 8 PM
WERE IN THE 50S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT. THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...STARTING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
LATE TONIGHT AND COVERING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY MID THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS MOVE THE FRONTAL SYSTEM RATHER SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON...WITH THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
CASCADES FRIDAY MORNING AND STEADY RAIN TURNING TO SHOWERS. THAT IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE COLD AIR DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...AND IT MEANS THAT WE CAN EXPECT STEADY PRECIPITATION AND
RATHER HIGH SNOW LEVELS THURSDAY... THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FRIDAY
MORNING.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE COMMON OVER
THE WESTERN WASHINGTON LOWLANDS. IN THE MOUNTAINS THERE WILL BE
AREAS OF 2 TO 4 INCH TOTALS...MAINLY OVER THE OLYMPICS AND AROUND
MOUNT BAKER. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE AROUND 8000 FT THURSDAY...7000
FT THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THEN EVENTUALLY FALL TO AROUND 5000 FT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE POST-FRONTAL UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES ON SATURDAY. FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COOL AND SHOWERY...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED
ON SATURDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE AROUND
4000 TO 4500 FT. A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL PROBABLY
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH PUGET SOUND REGION AND
NORTH CASCADES.   MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...HERE IS THE LONG TERM SECTION FROM THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST DISCUSSION -- THERE CONTINUED TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO THE DETAILS DURING
THIS PERIOD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...CHOSE TO
BROAD-BRUSH THE FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A RATHER SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THE LARGEST AMOUNTS WILL FALL OVER THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS
AND AROUND MOUNT BAKER...WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY...AND THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE 7000 FT OR ABOVE WHEN MOST
OF IT FALLS. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN COULD DRIVE THE EXCEPTIONALLY
FLOOD-PRONE SKOKOMISH RIVER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AGAIN...AND A FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS. IN ADDITION THE NOOKSACK RIVER WILL
PROBABLY RISE SIGNIFICANTLY. FLOODING THERE IS UNLIKELY BUT NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION...AND A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK ADDRESSES THAT SITUATION.

AT THIS TIME FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ON THE OTHER RIVERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER A WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH
A COUPLE MORE WET FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARRIVING NEXT WEEK.   MCDONNAL

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM REACHES THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THU
MORNING. CIGS WILL LOWER DURING THE DAY THU BUT WITH LOW LEVEL SE
FLOW OFF THE CASCADES IT MIGHT TAKE QUITE AWHILE TO DROP UP AND DOWN
THE I-5 CORRIDOR BUT THE MOUNTAINS OUGHT TO BE OBSCURED IN PRECIP.

KSEA...RAIN WILL REACH SEATTLE EARLY THU MORNING BUT WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 050 THROUGH MIDDAY
THU. CIGS WILL LOWER AS PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN INTENSITY THU
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY THRU FRI MORNING. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS.
TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND AT THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA OVERNIGHT AND THEN SPREAD TO THE REST OF THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND SAT. THEN
AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA SUN AND
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MASON COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE
     PUGET SOUND/HOOD CANAL.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 11 PM
     TONIGHT FOR THE GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KOTX 292342
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
442 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving frontal system will spread clouds and rain into
Washington Thursday and Friday. Rain chances on Thursday will be
the best over western and central Washington. Precipitation
will spread into eastern Washington and north Idaho on Friday.
Rain in the Idaho Panhandle will likely linger into Saturday. Cool
and unsettled weather is expected to continue into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight: The Inland Northwest should remain dry for the most part
tonight. Precipitation ahead of a frontal system will spread into
Oregon and western Washington overnight. Areas of fog and low
clouds may redevelop this evening and overnight, but increasing
mid and high clouds may hinder the radiational cooling required
for widespread fog and low stratus. At this time, the development
of light southeasterly boundary layer flow this evening favors
advection fog/stratus development over the West Plains and Upper
Columbia Basin along and north of the Highway 2 corridor into the
Okanogan Valley.

Thursday: The eastward extent of precipitation on Thursday is the
main forecast challenge for Thursday. Model guidance is in good
agreement that the Cascades will experience periods of light to
moderate rain Thursday and Thursday night. The Cascades will
experience a prolonged period of moist, isentropic ascent along
with light upslope wind in the boundary layer (southeast). The
mountains and upper valleys in the East Slopes will have a good
shot of a half inch to an inch of rain in the Thursday-Thursday
night time frame. For the Columbia Basin, Moses Lake area, and
Okanogan Highlands bands of rain look to be lighter and more
transient. The main cold front will remain off shore through the
day on Thursday, so these lower elevation areas east of the
Cascades will have to rely on warm advection processes on the
fringe of the deepest moisture layer. During the late morning
hours, the passage of a shortwave trough should enhance lift
increasing rain chances in the Upper Basin up to Republic and
Colville. As this wave lifts into Canada later in the day rain
chances look to diminish a bit as the approaching cold front
shears and stretches. In Summary, it looks like it will take a
long time for rains over western Washington and the Cascades to
migrate eastward into the Idaho Panhandle, Palouse and Spokane
area. /GKoch

Friday through Sunday: We are still watching a large trough off
the Pacific coastline. The models continue to show the trough
stretching/weakening as it enters the Inland Northwest, and takes
much of its energy to the south. A north-south oriented cold front
will also move slowly east, which should bring our temperatures
back closer to normal for the weekend. Precipitation chances were
lowered even further for eastern Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle Friday evening. The exception may be closer to the
Oregon border, where more organized showers may be able to develop
and move east. This doesn`t mean that Friday night`s Halloween
festivities will be dry, a jacket may still be necessary.

There is still good agreement amongst the models that a potent
shortwave ejects out of the base of the trough. This will be a
major player in this weekends weather over at the least the Idaho
Panhandle, although the bigger effects may be even further east
into Montana. An early season trowal-like structure will develop,
and this will bring precipitation chances back into the Idaho
Panhandle, and may extend further west into eastern Washington.
Lowering snow levels will allow for Idaho Panhandle mountain pass
and above snowfall, but travel issues look minimal at this point.
This is not a definite by any stretch. The low may track more
east, meaning that the weather impacts would be much less. Still a
few days to figure this out.

Dry conditions will exist further west into the Cascades Saturday
and Sunday.

Sunday night through Wednesday: The zonal flow pattern will
continue to push moisture into the Cascades area providing likely
chances for precip for Sunday night. Remnants from the previous
system over the weekend still keep a small chance of precip in the
Idaho Panhandle for Sunday night. As the period progresses, moist
shortwaves will pass through the region. This will allow high
chances of precip for the region except for the lee side of the
Cascades and the Columbia Basin. The warmer temperature associated
with this pattern will keep snow levels above 6000 ft.
Temperatures are expected be a couple of degrees above the normals
for this time of year. Highs are expected to be in the high 40s to
low 50s. Lows will be upper 30s to lower 40s. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Most but not all of the low clouds and fog will continue
to disperse over the aviation area but reform in a somewhat
similar manner overnight and into Thursday morning so some shape
or form of MVFR ceilings remains. Additionally another well
wrapped up occluded frontal zone spreads mid and high clouds in a
manner more like a warm front after 18Z Thursday and on. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        41  54  44  56  42  49 /   0  30  20  30  50  30
Coeur d`Alene  38  55  42  58  42  48 /  10  20  10  20  60  40
Pullman        41  59  46  59  43  47 /   0  10  10  20  60  50
Lewiston       44  64  47  62  46  50 /   0  10  10  20  60  50
Colville       39  52  42  56  40  54 /  10  60  30  60  50  20
Sandpoint      41  51  39  56  41  48 /  10  30  10  20  60  50
Kellogg        41  53  41  59  41  45 /  10  10  10  10  70  70
Moses Lake     43  56  45  56  41  55 /  10  60  30  60  20  10
Wenatchee      44  51  45  55  39  55 /  10  90  70  60  20  10
Omak           41  52  42  54  36  53 /   0  80  70  70  30  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 292228
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
328 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST...ALLOWING A WET PACIFIC STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW MOVING...LEADING TO HEAVY RAIN
ON THE SOUTH FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
THU...ALLOWING A DEEP TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TO APPROACH
THE REGION. ANTICIPATE INCREASING MOIST...SLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THU THAT WILL LEAD TO PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN
ON THE NORTH COAST AND OLYMPIC RANGE ON THU.

STRONG MOIST TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE THU NIGHT AND WILL BE AIDED
BY FAIRLY STRONG UPWARD FORCING IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROF AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL
BE ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION. THUS...HAVE KEPT THE STEADY PRECIP...
LOCALLY HEAVY...GOING THRU FRI MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE
SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVY RAIN ON THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF THE
OLYMPICS AND CASCADES.

THE STEADY PRECIP WILL BECOME SHOWERY FRI AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE UPPER TROF TO MOVE OVER THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE FOLLOWING ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY SHOULD
BE A DRY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AND TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...
THERE CONTINUED TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO THE DETAILS DURING THIS
PERIOD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...CHOSE TO
BROAD-BRUSH THE FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED THU THROUGH FRI MORNING.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ON THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF THE
OLYMPIC RANGE AND NORTH CASCADES...WHERE 2.5 TO 4.5 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ON THE OLYMPICS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ON THE SKOKOMISH AND NOOKSACK
RIVERS LATE THU NIGHT AND/OR FRI. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHER THAT THE
SKOKOMISH RIVER WOULD FLOOD...THUS A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR
MASON COUNTY. AN HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED FOR WHATCOM
COUNTY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING ON THE NOOKSACK.

FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ON THE REMAINING RIVERS THROUGH DAY
7...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON A POTENTIALLY WET SYSTEM
ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY STABILIZE
THIS EVENING AND REMAIN STABLE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE AIR MASS IS
SOMEWHAT MOIST. THE AIR MASS AT LOWER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY DRY THIS
EVENING WITH INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
OFFSHORE...ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT...WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

SHOWERS ARE DIMINISHING AS THE AIR MASS STABILIZES THIS EVENING AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO OFFSHORE. DESPITE GRADUAL LOWERING CLOUDS
AND RAIN SPREADING EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO THU...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE
FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR.
ALBRECHT

KSEA...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS ABOVE FL050 THROUGH TONIGHT.
RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE TERMINAL AREA EARLY THU MORNING...BUT WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN AROUND
050 THROUGH MIDDAY THU. CIGS WILL LOWER AS PRECIPITATION INCREASES
IN INTENSITY THU AFTERNOON. SLY WIND 4-7 KT WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY
OVERNIGHT AND WILL INCREASE TO 8-10 KT THU MORNING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A FRONTAL SYSTEM LOCATED ALONG 138W LONGITUDE WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THU NIGHT AND THROUGH THE INLAND WATERS
EARLY FRI MORNING. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND AT THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AFTER 11 PM THIS EVENING...THEN SPREAD TO THE
REST OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
THURSDAY MORNING AS SELY PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING FRONT.

THE GFS MODEL IS THE ONLY ONE SHOWING A RATHER STRONG WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE NNE ALONG THE FRONT AND THROUGH THE WATERS FRI
MORNING. IF THIS SCENARIO WERE TO DEVELOP...SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT
WOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS FRI MORNING BEHIND THE LOW. THE
NAM12...CANADIAN...AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DO NOT SHOW THIS WAVE. AT
THIS POINT THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS WERE USED AS THE BASIS OF THE
FORECAST.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND SAT.
THEN AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA SUN AND
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MASON COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE
     PUGET SOUND/HOOD CANAL.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 11 PM
     TONIGHT FOR THE GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KPQR 292158
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
258 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH ACROSS
NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE A MOIST COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECT SMALL
HAIL WITH THE SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE CASCADE PASSES...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER ORGANIZED FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS HAVE EASED OVER NW
OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON TODAY WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO FRONTS
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW. A WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH...AND A COLD
FRONT FROM THE NW.

THERE IS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGS OFFSHORE AND STEER THE SOUTHERN WARM FRONT
TO THE NORTH AND ACROSS NW OREGON LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS FRONT HAS A TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH OF RAIN FOR THE COAST
AND HIGHER TERRAIN FROM AROUND 9 PM TONIGHT TO 11 AM THURSDAY..WITH
BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.25 INCH FOR THE INTERIOR LOW LANDS.

THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL MERGE WITH
THE COLD FRONT TO THE NW THURSDAY MORNING OFFSHORE AND PUSH
ONSHORE THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE MORE RAIN WITH THIS FRONT AND EXPECT AROUND
1 TO 2 ADDITIONAL INCHES ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN...AND 0.5
TO 0.75 INCH FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY HYDROLOGICAL
CONCERNS FOR THE MAIN STEM RIVERS...BUT THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
AND COULD POND ON THE ROADS OR FLOOD AREAS WHERE DRAINS ARE CLOGGED.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WITH
SHOWERS FILLING IN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE QUITE THE
CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES AND AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CHANGE FROM
NEGATIVE 16 DEG C AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO NEGATIVE 30 DEG C BEHIND IT.
THE AIR WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT AND THERE MAY BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS...OR MORE
LIKELY...SMALL HAIL.

FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE
SHOWERS WILL EASE FRIDAY...HALLOWEEN EVENING. HOWEVER...THIS COULD
CHANGE IF THE MODELS SLOW THE TIMING OF WHEN THE MERGED COLD FRONT
MOVES ONSHORE. AS FOR NOW THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE TRICK-OR-TREATERS
MAY HAVE BREAKS IN THE RAIN FOR THEIR EVENING ADVENTURES.

SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER FRIDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE CASCADE
PASSES FRIDAY EVENING AS THE PRECIPITATION DWINDLES. EXPECT
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE PASSES WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION. HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ABOVE 5000 FEET...MAY MEASURE 2 TO
6 INCHES OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES SATURDAY AS A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NW. ANY CLEARING OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RADIATION FOG FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS
SATURDAY MORNING. TJ

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS INTO EASTERN OREGON SATURDAY NIGHT PROVIDING FOR WEAK
RIDGING AND ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS...THOUGH A WARM FRONTAL BAND MAY BRING
SOME RAIN TO THE NORTHERN ZONES. WHILE MODELS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
SOMETIME EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SYSTEMS
THAT LOOK TO KEEP THE REGION IN A WET AND FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN FORECAST
MODELS...GENERALIZED ABOVE CLIMO POPS ACROSS THE CWA FOR TUE AND WED
WITH LIKELY REFINEMENT IN THE COMING DAYS AS MODELS BEGIN TO CONVERGE
ON THE DEVELOPING PATTERN.
CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM SOME PESKY LOWER
END MVFR CIGS PERSISTING AROUND KTTD AND KHIO. THOSE LOWER AREAS
SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY AS THE WARM FRONT ADVANCES TONIGHT BRINGING
BROAD SCALE LIFT ALONG WITH IT. RAIN THREAT INCREASES WITH RAINS
SATURATING LOWER LEVELS THUS BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR LOW MVFR TO
IFR CIGS/VSBYS 04Z TO 06Z TONIGHT AND CLOSER TO 12Z INLAND. BEST
CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS WILL BE KONP AND KHIO AND/OR IFR VSBYS AT KSLE
AND KAST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE NORTH OREGON COAST
AND WILL INDUCE A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CASCADES
WITH EAST WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT PROBABLE AT KTTD BETWEEN 14Z AND
22Z. EXPECT LESS EASTERLY WINDS AT KPDX.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR UNTIL AROUND 06Z WHEN VISUAL
APPROACHES WILL BE IMPACTED BY LOWERING CIGS. FINALLY...MIGHT SEE
A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS CLOSER TO 12Z AS A WARM FRONT NEARS THE
TERMINAL. BREEZY EAST WINDS WITH GUSTS PERHAPS 15-20 KT SHOULD
INHIBIT LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
/JBONK

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY SOUTHERLY AND LESS THAN 15 KT
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH A SHALLOW SURFACE TROUGH SWINGING
NORTH ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. NOW
EXPECT A FAIRLY SOLID SMALL CRAFT WIND EVENT FOR THE OUTER WATERS
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT AND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT AROUND
MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. AN
OVERALL OFFSHORE GRADIENT SHOULD INHIBIT INNER WATER WIND SPEEDS
UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK. AN INNER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS HAS
ALSO BEEN ISSUED AND LOOKS TO BE MAINLY A 20 TO 25 KT GUST
POTENTIAL EVENT.

EXPECT SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 10 FT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. COMBINED SEAS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH ABOVE 10 FT AS WINDS
PEAK THU MORNING BUT FEEL IT WILL BE BRIEF AND MORE LOCALIZED IN
NATURE. THE NEXT UPPER LOW MAY SEND ANOTHER PUSH OF SEAS ABOVE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND PERHAPS A STRONGER SYSTEM
TUE/WED. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD
     OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 PM
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 292151
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
251 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving frontal system will spread clouds and rain into
Washington Thursday and Friday. Rain chances on Thursday will be
the best over western and central Washington. Precipitation
will spread into eastern Washington and north Idaho on Friday.
Rain in the Idaho Panhandle will likely linger into Saturday. Cool
and unsettled weather is expected to continue into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight: The Inland Northwest should remain dry for the most part
tonight. Precipitation ahead of a frontal system will spread into
Oregon and western Washington overnight. Areas of fog and low
clouds may redevelop this evening and overnight, but increasing
mid and high clouds may hinder the radiational cooling required
for widespread fog and low stratus. At this time, the development
of light southeasterly boundary layer flow this evening favors
advection fog/stratus development over the West Plains and Upper
Columbia Basin along and north of the Highway 2 corridor into the
Okanogan Valley.

Thursday: The eastward extent of precipitation on Thursday is the
main forecast challenge for Thursday. Model guidance is in good
agreement that the Cascades will experience periods of light to
moderate rain Thursday and Thursday night. The Cascades will
experience a prolonged period of moist, isentropic ascent along
with light upslope wind in the boundary layer (southeast). The
mountains and upper valleys in the East Slopes will have a good
shot of a half inch to an inch of rain in the Thursday-Thursday
night time frame. For the Columbia Basin, Moses Lake area, and
Okanogan Highlands bands of rain look to be lighter and more
transient. The main cold front will remain off shore through the
day on Thursday, so these lower elevation areas east of the
Cascades will have to rely on warm advection processes on the
fringe of the deepest moisture layer. During the late morning
hours, the passage of a shortwave trough should enhance lift
increasing rain chances in the Upper Basin up to Republic and
Colville. As this wave lifts into Canada later in the day rain
chances look to diminish a bit as the approaching cold front
shears and stretches. In Summary, it looks like it will take a
long time for rains over western Washington and the Cascades to
migrate eastward into the Idaho Panhandle, Palouse and Spokane
area. /GKoch

Friday through Sunday: We are still watching a large trough off
the Pacific coastline. The models continue to show the trough
stretching/weakening as it enters the Inland Northwest, and takes
much of its energy to the south. A north-south oriented cold front
will also move slowly east, which should bring our temperatures
back closer to normal for the weekend. Precipitation chances were
lowered even further for eastern Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle Friday evening. The exception may be closer to the
Oregon border, where more organized showers may be able to develop
and move east. This doesn`t mean that Friday night`s Halloween
festivities will be dry, a jacket may still be necessary.

There is still good agreement amongst the models that a potent
shortwave ejects out of the base of the trough. This will be a
major player in this weekends weather over at the least the Idaho
Panhandle, although the bigger effects may be even further east
into Montana. An early season trowal-like structure will develop,
and this will bring precipitation chances back into the Idaho
Panhandle, and may extend further west into eastern Washington.
Lowering snow levels will allow for Idaho Panhandle mountain pass
and above snowfall, but travel issues look minimal at this point.
This is not a definite by any stretch. The low may track more
east, meaning that the weather impacts would be much less. Still a
few days to figure this out.

Dry conditions will exist further west into the Cascades Saturday
and Sunday.

Sunday night through Wednesday: The zonal flow pattern will
continue to push moisture into the Cascades area providing likely
chances for precip for Sunday night. Remnants from the previous
system over the weekend still keep a small chance of precip in the
Idaho Panhandle for Sunday night. As the period progresses, moist
shortwaves will pass through the region. This will allow high
chances of precip for the region except for the lee side of the
Cascades and the Columbia Basin. The warmer temperature associated
with this pattern will keep snow levels above 6000 ft.
Temperatures are expected be a couple of degrees above the normals
for this time of year. Highs are expected to be in the high 40s to
low 50s. Lows will be upper 30s to lower 40s. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Low clouds and fog will be slow to disperse today.
Recent rains have produced wet ground. With the upper ridge
building behind yesterday`s rain, boundary layer flow will be
relatively weak. We will be relying on sun to provide the mixing
necessary to break of the clouds and fog. If the low clouds
disperse by late afternoon, there is a good chance of some
clearing this evening. Increasing mid and high clouds ahead of
Thursday`s front may inhibit widespread fog and low cloud
formation overnight. Our 18z TAFs may be overly optimistic in this
regard. Spokane, Coeur D`Alene, and Moses Lake may experience some
ragged stratus again tonight and Tuesday morning. /GKoch


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        41  54  44  56  42  49 /   0  30  20  30  50  30
Coeur d`Alene  38  55  42  58  42  48 /  10  20  10  20  60  40
Pullman        41  59  46  59  43  47 /   0  10  10  20  60  50
Lewiston       44  64  47  62  46  50 /   0  10  10  20  60  50
Colville       39  52  42  56  40  54 /  10  60  30  60  50  20
Sandpoint      41  51  39  56  41  48 /  10  30  10  20  60  50
Kellogg        41  53  41  59  41  45 /  10  10  10  10  70  70
Moses Lake     43  56  45  56  41  55 /  10  60  30  60  20  10
Wenatchee      44  51  45  55  39  55 /  10  90  70  60  20  10
Omak           41  52  42  54  36  53 /   0  80  70  70  30  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 291857
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1157 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Low clouds and fog will be widespread this morning. Precipitation
chances will decrease today after lingering over the Idaho Panhandle
mainly this morning. The break between storm systems will be
brief, however, with another frontal system spreading rain into
Washington and Idaho Thursday and Friday. This rain will likely
linger into Saturday over the Idaho Panhandle.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Areas along and north of Interstate 90 will be dealing with a low
cloud deck and some fog through at least mid afternoon. Recent
rainfall, high humidity, and weak southerly flow in the boundary
layer will allow low clouds to linger into the afternoon hours in
places like Omak, Colville, Sandpoint, Davenport, and portions of
the Spokane metro. High temperatures have been trimmed into the
upper 40s and low 50s for these areas considering the lack of
sunshine. The mildest and sunniest weather in the region will
likely occur over the Washington Palouse, Lewiston area, and Camas
Prairie today. A few spots along the Snake/Clearwater Rivers will
have a good shot of reaching 60 degrees this afternoon. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Low clouds and fog will be slow to disperse today.
Recent rains have produced wet ground. With the upper ridge
building behind yesterday`s rain, boundary layer flow will be
relatively weak. We will be relying on sun to provide the mixing
necessary to break of the clouds and fog. If the low clouds
disperse by late afternoon, there is a good chance of some
clearing this evening. Increasing mid and high clouds ahead of
Thursday`s front may inhibit widespread fog and low cloud
formation overnight. Our 18z TAFs may be overly optimistic in this
regard. Spokane, Coeur D`Alene, and Moses Lake may experience some
ragged stratus again tonight and Tuesday morning. /GKoch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  41  55  45  55  41 /  10   0  20  20  30  50
Coeur d`Alene  52  40  54  42  57  42 /  10   0  10  10  20  60
Pullman        58  44  59  47  58  43 /  10   0  20  10  20  60
Lewiston       61  46  62  48  61  44 /  10  10  10  10  20  60
Colville       51  41  53  42  55  40 /  10  10  40  50  60  50
Sandpoint      48  38  52  39  56  42 /  30  10  10  10  20  60
Kellogg        48  40  53  42  58  41 /  20   0  10  10  10  70
Moses Lake     59  45  57  47  55  41 /   0  20  40  40  60  20
Wenatchee      56  47  55  46  55  36 /   0  30  80  70  60  20
Omak           53  41  53  43  54  35 /   0  10  70  90  70  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 291640
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
940 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA TODAY
FOR DRIER CONDITIONS. A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THERE WERE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE CWA AT THIS TIME...WITH MOST OF
THEM LOCATED OVER THE CASCADES. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN SOME CLEARING
OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE REGION TODAY FOR GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO REACH THE AREA WAS CURRENTLY NEAR 139W AND
MOVING EAST. A LARGE DEEP...COLD TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN
145 AND 150W WAS DIGGING SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW THE TROUGH TO
TURN THE FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON SOUTHERLY OR ENOUGH TO
PULL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS
PROCESS WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION TO PULLING THE MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTH...THE DEEPENING
TROUGH WILL ALSO SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT TO A
CRAWL ON THURSDAY. THE END RESULT WILL BE RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
THERE WILL BE A NICE RAIN SHADOW EFFECT ALONG THE EAST PORTION OF
THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL COOL AS WELL WITH THE SNOW
LEVEL DROPPING DOWN TO NEAR 4500 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW INCHES
OF NEW SNOW IS LIKELY AT PARADISE ON MOUNT RAINIER. FELTON/05

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON
FRIDAY NIGHT. GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED MODELS ON SATURDAY
WITH A WEAK RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN A DRY DAY
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. RIDGE WILL HANG AROUND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXTENDED MODELS WERE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM...
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST...TO MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON
WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER...SO HAVE DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE COAST. THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WILL BE
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SYSTEMS THAT WILL KEEP WESTERN WASHINGTON
WET THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. FELTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE SKOKOMISH RIVER CRESTED AT 16.5 FEET AROUND 630 AM PDT...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE THE REST OF TODAY.

A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN ON THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH CASCADES THU
THROUGH FRI MORNING. THIS WILL RAISE THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING
ON THE RIVERS DRAINING FROM THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH CASCADES THU
NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. THE SKOKOMISH WILL LIKELY REACH FLOOD STAGE
AGAIN THU NIGHT...POSSIBLY EARLIER. FLOOD WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ON THE REMAINING RIVERS THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT. A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY STABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST...AND WILL GRADUALLY DRY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MOST FROM THE
WEST AFTER 06Z THU.

SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THIS MORNING. SW-NE LINES
OF SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE AND RADAR...ONE FROM NORTHERN
SNOHOMISH COUNTY INTO THE NORTH CASCADES...AND ANOTHER FROM NEAR
KAST TO STEVENS PASS. ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN IN OTHER AREAS.
CONDITIONS ARE VFR...EXCEPT MVFR IN SHOWERS. THE 14Z HRRR SHOWS THE
SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON THEN COMING TO AN END
THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE COASTAL WATERS ON THU.
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR THROUGHOUT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

FLOW ALOFT IS INTERACTING WITH THE OLYMPICS AND IS CAUSING SOME
LOCAL WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE CENTRAL PUGET SOUND AREA THIS
MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND LOW LEVEL PRES GRADIENTS BECOME MORE
EASTERLY. ALBRECHT

KSEA...SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND THE TERMINAL IS SHIFTING INTO THE
CASCADES...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE SELY TO ELY. EXPECT OCNL CIGS AROUND FL025
THROUGH ABOUT 19Z THEN CIGS IMPROVE TO OVER 050 AFTER 22Z. S WIND
10-12 KT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND TURN MORE SELY THIS AFTERNOON
THEN WILL BACK TO ELY 4-7 KT AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH THE OLYMPICS IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AROUND CENTRAL PUGET SOUND THIS
MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE
BEING OBSERVED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND AT THE WEST ENTRANCE TO
THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AS A 10-13 FT WSW SWELL DECAYS INTO THE
WATERS. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON
AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THEN
BUILDS INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ALONG 140W THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THEN WILL STALL
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES NORTHWARD ALONG THE
FRONT THROUGH THE OREGON WATERS. THE LOW PRES WAVE WILL MOVE NE
THROUGH THE WATERS FRI AND MAY BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY SW WINDS TO THE WATERS LATE THU NIGHT OR FRI PER THE 12Z
MODEL SOLUTIONS. A CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR FRI IS LIKELY TO BE
REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON IF THE OTHER 12Z MODELS SHOW THIS SCENARIO.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND SAT.
THEN AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA SUN AND
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN
     MASON COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...
     WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND THE PUGET
     SOUND/HOOD CANAL.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

     GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
     FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KPQR 291637
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
937 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DECREASING SHOWERS TODAY...THEN RAIN RETURNS WITH HIGHER
SNOW LEVELS TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THU AND FRI. COOLER
SHOWERY WEATHER WITH SNOW ON THE PASSES OF THE CASCADES IS EXPECTED
FOR THIS WEEKEND. WET COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES WITH THE MORNING
UPDATE...MAINLY ADJUSTED POPS DOWN TO THE SOUTH FOR THIS
MORNING...AND UP TO THE NORTH. SHOWERS ARE DECREASING OVER THE
AREA...BUT WILL BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT OVER THE SW WA AND NORTHERN
OREGON CASCADES THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NOT MUCH SHOWERS FOR INLAND LANE
COUNTY...BUT THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST MAY MEASURE A COUPLE OF MORE
HUNDRETHS OF RAIN THIS MORNING. TODAY WOULD BE A GREAT DAY TO CLEAN
FALLEN LEAVES FROM STORM DRAINS. ALSO REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS...AS
THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF ANY NEAR OR OFF SHORE.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO FRONTS APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW. A WARM
FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH...AND IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN
TO NORTHERN CA...AND A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE NW. MODELS
SEEM TO BE INITIALIZING WELL WITH THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND FORECAST THEM
TO MERGE TOGETHER OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. SOME RAIN AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER NW OREGON AND POSSIBLY SW WASHINGTON THIS
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH TO
JOIN THE COLD FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE MORE PERSISTENT RAIN
WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.

THERE ARE SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF WHEN THE MAIN RAIN WILL REACH
ON SHORE BUT ALL MODELS ARE TAKING A SLOWER APPROACH OF HAVING THE
RAIN MOVE TO THE COAST THURSDAY EVENING AND SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WILL BE ADJUSTING THE RAINFALL TOTALS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WANT TO WAIT UNTIL ALL OF THE
12Z MODELS ARE IN. TJ

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING EAST OF THE
CASCADES LATE FRIDAY...ALLOWING POST FRONTAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH AND THE TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS INLAND. SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY FALL TO NEAR PASS LEVEL
THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
WILL DIG INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP NEAR PASS LEVEL...NOT SEEING MANY SHOWERS AT THIS POINT WHICH
MAY ONLY BRING A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW TO THE PASSES SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY...A BREAK IN THE RAIN IS POSSIBLE...BUT
CANT RULE OUT A COUPLE STRAY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SUNDAY A WEAK WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA GENERATING
ENOUGH LIFT FOR SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH THIS WARM
FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOMEWHERE
ACROSS OUR AREA...SUGGESTING RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS A TROUGH EXITS
THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT RAIN THREAT INCREASES AND POTENTIAL FOR LOW MVFR TO
IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATER TONIGHT AND THU WITH THE NEXT WARM FRONT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS WITH CIGS LIKELY
AT OR NEAR 025 FROM A DECK PUSHES NORTH AND EAST FROM THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THEN EXPECT VFR UNTIL LATE AROUND 06Z WHEN
VISUAL APPROACHES WILL BE IMPACTED BY LOWERING CIGS.
FINALLY...MIGHT SEE A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS CLOSER TO 12Z AS A WARM
FRONT NEARS THE TERMINAL. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE DRAMATICALLY EASED AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE
WEAKENED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY
SOUTHERLY AND LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT. SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH A
SHALLOW SURFACE TROUGH SWINGING NORTH ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE STRENGTH BUT IT SEEMS
SMALL CRAFT WIND SPEEDS WILL DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW
MORNING OUTSIDE OF 30 NM.

SEAS REMAIN AROUND 11 FT AT 12 SECONDS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY A WEST
SWELL. EXPECT SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 10 FT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. COMBINED SEAS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH ABOVE 10 FT AS WINDS
PEAK EARLY THU AND WILL ASSESS FURTHER FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
THE NEXT UPPER LOW MAY SEND ANOTHER PUSH OF SEAS ABOVE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND PERHAPS A STRONGER SYSTEM TUE/WED.
/JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 1 PM
    PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 PM TO
     11 PM PDT THIS EVENING.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 291142
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
442 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Low clouds and fog will be widespread this morning. Precipitation
chances will decrease today after lingering over the Idaho Panhandle
mainly this morning. The break between storm systems will be
brief, however, with another frontal system spreading rain into
Washington and Idaho Thursday and Friday. This rain will likely
linger into Saturday over the Idaho Panhandle.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight: With what`s left of the upper low over Ern Wa
and Srn BC continuing to fill, we`ll see rapid stabilization and
warming aloft today as short-wave ridging currently along the Pac
Nw coast moves to N Idaho by this evening. This will result in a
dry fcst for all but the Idaho Panhandle, which will see lingering
showers slowly decrease. With pcpn amnts around a half inch for
many sites across N Idaho and NE Wa overnight, upslope stratus
and/or fog will be common under the stabilizing air mass. Vsbys
restricted to less than a half mile will be possible, with upslope
drizzle likely into mid morning. Mostly cloudy skies from stratus
this morning are likely across the Upper Columbia Basin and near
the Cascades. The next chance of pcpn will be late tonight/Thurs
morning for the Wenatchee/Moses Lake/Cascades as deepening ascent
over a warm frontal boundary moving north through Oregon
approaches the area. Fog and/or stratus will be common for the
majority of NE Wa and the Idaho Panhandle valleys tonight ahead of
this warm front.bz

Thursday through Sunday: An unsettled weather pattern will
continue for the region as the next deep trof currently over the
Gulf of AK slowly passes through the region. The storm system is
becoming much more complex and difficult to forecast. The trof
will track toward the Western US coast Thursday then stall as
energy digs into its base off the California Coast. Expect a warm
front to lift north through region bringing increasing clouds and
rain into the East Slopes, and western reaches of the Columbia
Basin. A meridional frontal boundary with a rich plume of moisture
will cross into Wrn WA Thursday night then into the Cascades
Friday morning. Models have continued to trend slower with this
feature moving across Central and Eastern WA Friday and favor
drier conditions for a majority of eastern WA and Nrn ID until
Friday night with the exception of a brief warm front passage on
Thursday (which is only bringing the potential for a hundredth or
so). Given the meridional stretching of the parent trof, the front
weaken while crossing the Columbia Basin and barely makes it to
the WA/ID border until Friday night. This has resulted in further
decrease of PoPs and QPF during Halloween festivities and now
shifts the better chances for light rain west of a line from
Republic to Pendleton and east of Omak to Wenatchee. The ECMWF is
still a tad faster and given some uncertainty, we have not
completely abandoned the previous forecast but significant changes
are still a possibility which would include further lowering PoPs,
QPF, and adjusting timing further.

Now this is where things get interesting.  A significant piece of
shortwave energy is progged to eject from the base of the trof
and track NE through southern ID toward Central Montana. A
pronounced 700mb low develops and tracks along the decaying but
still very moist frontal boundary. Moisture and instability in a
trowal air stream wrap around the northwestern periphery of the
low, interact with the boundary, and QPF begins to ramp back up
across southeastern WA and Idaho. The exact track of the low is
likely going to change so its not out of the question that this
misses my CWA to the east or hammers us directly. The complexity
of how this storm system evolves from moist isentropic ascent, to
a crawling frontal boundary, to a wrap around event signifies how
much room there is for error and potential changes from the end of
the work week into the weekend. Confidence is increasing however
that drier conditions will return to the Cascades by Saturday
night as the course of events unfolds to our south and east.

Sunday night through Wednesday: Another fire-hose of atmospheric
moisture will become aimed at the Northwestern US bringing
several more rounds of precipitation, gusty winds, but also mild
temperatures. Some differences exist in regards to what latitude
to place the axis of precipitation each 12 hours and this is
expected as shortwave energy ejects along the International border
rippling the baroclinic zone. I must say, for early November and
in an active weather pattern, models are in remarkable agreement
regarding the large-scale pattern featuring this positively tilted
trof offshore and flat ridge over the northwestern third of the
US. This will not be a washout all four days, especially in the
lee of the Cascades and Columbia Basin given the W/SW jet, but the
moisture will be rich and the mountains are likely in for a
several rounds of moderate precipitation, especially north. The
subtropical origins of the moisture also suggest snow chances will
remain minimal below 6000 feet . /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Our level of confidence is low concerning the vsby and
ceiling restrictions due to fog and stratus...especially the
Palouse, Spokane and Moses Lake areas. Through 18z for these
locations... MVFR ceilings/vsbys will be common, with LIFR or less
possible where low clouds temporarily clear or scatter. The most
likely offender will be KMWH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  41  55  45  55  41 /  20   0  20  20  50  60
Coeur d`Alene  52  40  54  42  57  42 /  20   0  10  10  20  60
Pullman        56  44  59  47  58  43 /  20   0  20  10  20  70
Lewiston       61  46  62  48  61  44 /  20  10  10  10  20  60
Colville       51  41  53  42  55  40 /  20  10  40  50  60  50
Sandpoint      49  38  52  39  56  42 /  30  10  10  10  20  60
Kellogg        48  40  53  42  58  41 /  40   0  10  10  10  80
Moses Lake     59  45  57  47  55  41 /   0  20  40  40  60  30
Wenatchee      59  47  55  46  55  36 /  10  30  80  70  60  20
Omak           54  41  53  43  54  35 /  10  10  70  90  70  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 291106 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED SYNOPSIS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
400 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY FOR
A DRYING TREND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. WET WEATHER WILL RETURN
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ADDITIONAL FRONTS MOVE
ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER RADAR SHOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
AT 3 AM WERE IN THE 50S.

STILL A FEW SHOWERS OFFSHORE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO REACH
THE AREA MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT AN END TO THE SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH A LITTLE BIT
OF SUNSHINE HIGHS NEAR 60 WILL BE COMMON.

NEXT SYSTEM TO REACH THE AREA CURRENTLY BACK OUT NEAR 139W MOVING
EAST. LARGE DEEP COLD TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN 140-155W
DIGGING SOUTH. THE TROUGH WILL DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO TURN THE FLOW
ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY...ENOUGH TO PULL
THE MOISTURE CURRENTLY DOWN NEAR 38N/130-140W UP OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS PROCESS WILL BEGIN LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO PULLING
THE MOISTURE UP FOR THE SOUTH...THE DEEPENING TROUGH WILL ALSO SLOW
THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT DOWN TO A CRAWL ON THURSDAY. END
RESULT THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS JUST RAIN FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA. WITH THE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THERE WILL
BE A NICE RAIN SHADOW EFFECT ALONG THE EAST PORTION OF THE STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR 60 WITH LOWS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE AIR
MASS WILL COOL AS WELL WITH THE SNOW LEVEL DROPPING DOWN TO NEAR
4500 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT SO A FEW MORE INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS LIKELY AT
PARADISE ON MOUNT RAINIER.

.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON FRIDAY NIGHT. GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED MODELS ON
SATURDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN A DRY
DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. RIDGE HANGING AROUND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
BE A LITTLE SLOWER...SO HAVE DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE COAST. THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE FIRST
IN A SERIES OF SYSTEMS THAT WILL KEEP WESTERN WASHINGTON WET THROUGH
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. FELTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SHOWERS OVER THE OLYMPICS OVERNIGHT HAVE CAUSED THE
SKOKOMISH TO RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. A SHORT
FUSED FLOOD WARNING MAY BE ISSUED IF THIS TREND CONTINUES FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IF THE RIVER REACHES FLOOD STAGE IT WILL NOT
STAY THERE VERY LONG WITH THE DRYING TREND LATER TODAY. MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAIN IN STORE FOR THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THE SKOKOMISH DOES NOT GET A CHANCE
TO RECEDE MUCH IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IT COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE AGAIN
LATE THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF RAINFALL.

FOR THE OTHER RIVERS...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER W WA AT
09Z...EMBEDDED IN W FLOW ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE E AND DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING. RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS AND A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE LOWER AIR MASS REMAINS
MOIST WHICH IS PRODUCING PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS AND LOW END VFR
CIGS BKN030-050. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 19Z...BUT AS
THE RIDGE TAKES HOLD...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO SCT-BKN LAYERS 030-050
IS EXPECTED BY 22Z. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN
AND LOWER CONDITIONS ACROSS W WA AFTER 09Z.

KSEA...MOST OF THE SHOWERS CROSSING W WA HAVE BEEN MISSING THE KSEA
AREA...BUT A FEW COULD STILL REACH THE TERMINAL THROUGH 16Z. CIGS
WILL REMAIN BKN-OVC020-040 THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE
TO SCT-BKN040-050 BY 22Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY
5-10KT. KAM

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER W WA TODAY ALLOWING
SURFACE WINDS TO WEAKEN. SWELL ON THE COAST IS STILL ABOVE 10 FEET
THIS MORNING...BUT WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 10 FEET BY THIS EVENING...SO A
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY. THE SWELL WILL
KEEP THE GRAYS HARBOR BAR CONDITIONS ROUGH THIS MORNING.

THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT WESTERN WA TONIGHT NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY PLOWING E NEAR
45N/140W-150W WILL EVENTUALLY STIMULATE A FRONTAL WAVE ON THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE S OREGON COAST...LEFTOVER FROM AN EARLIER
SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS...FALLING PRESSURES OFFSHORE WILL
INCREASE THE E-SE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE TONIGHT AND OVER SOME OF
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR WATERS THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME CONCERN
REGARDING E FLOW THROUGH THE W ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT. THE GFS SHOWS
ABOUT A 4.5 MB PRESSURE UIL-BLI PRESSURE GRADIENT 12Z/18Z
THURSDAY...BUT THE COARSER GFS FREQUENTLY OVER-FORECASTS THE
GRADIENT. BUT WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING 3-3.5 MB
GRADIENTS...WHICH PUTS IT IN THE RANGE FOR A POTENTIAL
GALE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL REFORM OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS COAST AND WEST
      ENTRANCE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
     GALE WATCH FOR THE WEST ENTRANCE.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML














000
FXUS66 KSEW 291104
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
400 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY FOR
A TRYING TREND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. WET WEATHER WILL RETURN
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ADDITIONAL FRONTS MOVE
ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER RADAR SHOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
AT 3 AM WERE IN THE 50S.

STILL A FEW SHOWERS OFFSHORE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO REACH
THE AREA MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT AN END TO THE SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH A LITTLE BIT
OF SUNSHINE HIGHS NEAR 60 WILL BE COMMON.

NEXT SYSTEM TO REACH THE AREA CURRENTLY BACK OUT NEAR 139W MOVING
EAST. LARGE DEEP COLD TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN 140-155W
DIGGING SOUTH. THE TROUGH WILL DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO TURN THE FLOW
ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY...ENOUGH TO PULL
THE MOISTURE CURRENTLY DOWN NEAR 38N/130-140W UP OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS PROCESS WILL BEGIN LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO PULLING
THE MOISTURE UP FOR THE SOUTH...THE DEEPENING TROUGH WILL ALSO SLOW
THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT DOWN TO A CRAWL ON THURSDAY. END
RESULT THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS JUST RAIN FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA. WITH THE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THERE WILL
BE A NICE RAIN SHADOW EFFECT ALONG THE EAST PORTION OF THE STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR 60 WITH LOWS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE AIR
MASS WILL COOL AS WELL WITH THE SNOW LEVEL DROPPING DOWN TO NEAR
4500 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT SO A FEW MORE INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS LIKELY AT
PARADISE ON MOUNT RAINIER.

.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON FRIDAY NIGHT. GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED MODELS ON
SATURDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN A DRY
DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. RIDGE HANGING AROUND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
BE A LITTLE SLOWER...SO HAVE DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE COAST. THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE FIRST
IN A SERIES OF SYSTEMS THAT WILL KEEP WESTERN WASHINGTON WET THROUGH
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. FELTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SHOWERS OVER THE OLYMPICS OVERNIGHT HAVE CAUSED THE
SKOKOMISH TO RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. A SHORT
FUSED FLOOD WARNING MAY BE ISSUED IF THIS TREND CONTINUES FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IF THE RIVER REACHES FLOOD STAGE IT WILL NOT
STAY THERE VERY LONG WITH THE DRYING TREND LATER TODAY. MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAIN IN STORE FOR THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THE SKOKOMISH DOES NOT GET A CHANCE
TO RECEDE MUCH IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IT COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE AGAIN
LATE THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF RAINFALL.

FOR THE OTHER RIVERS...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER W WA AT
09Z...EMBEDDED IN W FLOW ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE E AND DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING. RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS AND A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE LOWER AIR MASS REMAINS
MOIST WHICH IS PRODUCING PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS AND LOW END VFR
CIGS BKN030-050. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 19Z...BUT AS
THE RIDGE TAKES HOLD...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO SCT-BKN LAYERS 030-050
IS EXPECTED BY 22Z. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN
AND LOWER CONDITIONS ACROSS W WA AFTER 09Z.

KSEA...MOST OF THE SHOWERS CROSSING W WA HAVE BEEN MISSING THE KSEA
AREA...BUT A FEW COULD STILL REACH THE TERMINAL THROUGH 16Z. CIGS
WILL REMAIN BKN-OVC020-040 THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE
TO SCT-BKN040-050 BY 22Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY
5-10KT. KAM

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER W WA TODAY ALLOWING
SURFACE WINDS TO WEAKEN. SWELL ON THE COAST IS STILL ABOVE 10 FEET
THIS MORNING...BUT WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 10 FEET BY THIS EVENING...SO A
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY. THE SWELL WILL
KEEP THE GRAYS HARBOR BAR CONDITIONS ROUGH THIS MORNING.

THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT WESTERN WA TONIGHT NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY PLOWING E NEAR
45N/140W-150W WILL EVENTUALLY STIMULATE A FRONTAL WAVE ON THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE S OREGON COAST...LEFTOVER FROM AN EARLIER
SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS...FALLING PRESSURES OFFSHORE WILL
INCREASE THE E-SE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE TONIGHT AND OVER SOME OF
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR WATERS THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME CONCERN
REGARDING E FLOW THROUGH THE W ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT. THE GFS SHOWS
ABOUT A 4.5 MB PRESSURE UIL-BLI PRESSURE GRADIENT 12Z/18Z
THURSDAY...BUT THE COARSER GFS FREQUENTLY OVER-FORECASTS THE
GRADIENT. BUT WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING 3-3.5 MB
GRADIENTS...WHICH PUTS IT IN THE RANGE FOR A POTENTIAL
GALE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL REFORM OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS COAST AND WEST
      ENTRANCE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
     GALE WATCH FOR THE WEST ENTRANCE.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML











000
FXUS66 KPQR 291004
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
304 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DECREASING SHOWERS TODAY...THEN RAIN RETURNS WITH HIGHER
SNOW LEVELS TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THU AND FRI. COOLER
SHOWERY WEATHER WITH SNOW ON THE PASSES OF THE CASCADES IS EXPECTED
FOR THIS WEEKEND. WET COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...RESIDUAL SHOWERS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS SEEN ON RADAR IMAGERY. BRIEF
AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
TODAY...ALLOWING SHOWERS TO DECREASE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN RATHER UNSTABLE...WITH MODELS STILL SHOWING
MARGINAL LIFTED INDEX VALUES THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN THE
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TODAY ALONG THE COAST AND COAST
RANGE...OTHERWISE WILL SEE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DEVELOP THROUGH
TODAY.

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A 991 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE GULF
OF ALASKA...ALONG WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM LOCATED AROUND 40N/130W
TRANSPORTING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OREGON
COAST. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL WRAP AROUND THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AND REACH THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST LATER TONIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MERGE WITH
THE SURFACE FRONT ON THURSDAY...BRINGING ABUNDANT RAIN TO THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY AS THE COMBINED FRONTS DRAG ACROSS THE CWA.
THE 06Z GFS AND NAM BOTH HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PRECIP...WHICH WOULD
IMPACT LOCAL FASTER RESPONDING RIVERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COAST
AND COAST RANGE COULD SEE SOME SPOTS WITH 2.5 INCHES OR MORE OF RAIN
FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER THE COOLER AND
UNSETTLED AIR MASS.

MODELS SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING EAST OF THE CASCADES LATE FRIDAY...
ALLOWING POST FRONTAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH AND THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INLAND. SNOW
LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY FALL TO NEAR PASS LEVEL THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT
MODELS ARE INDICATING THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL DIG INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP NEAR PASS
LEVEL...NOT SEEING MANY SHOWERS AT THIS POINT WHICH MAY ONLY BRING A
FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW TO THE PASSES SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY...A BREAK IN THE RAIN IS POSSIBLE...BUT
CANT RULE OUT A COUPLE STRAY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SUNDAY A WEAK WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA GENERATING
ENOUGH LIFT FOR SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH THIS WARM
FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOMEWHERE
ACROSS OUR AREA...SUGGESTING RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS CONTINUING THIS MORNING AS A TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT RAIN THREAT INCREASES LATER TONIGHT AND THU WITH THE
NEXT WARM FRONT. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BRING LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING. FOR LATER TONIGHT AS THE RAIN
RETURNS THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LOW MVFR TO IFR AS THE OVER
RUNNING PCPN INCREASES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE
VALLEY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS
AND/OR VISIBILITIES TO ABOUT 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...S TO SW WINDS PEAKING AROUND 20 KTS BUT SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
ACTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS THE WATERS MIXING STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INLAND.

SEAS REMAIN AROUND 13 FT AT 13 SECONDS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY A WEST
SWELL. EXPECT SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 10 FT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT FRONT MOVES IN THU...BUT WINDS APPEAR TO REMAIN SUB-GALE
WITH THIS SYSTEM. LONG RANGE OUTLOOK SUGGESTS WEATHER PATTERN
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS THE PAC NW WATERS WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
PYLE/MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 PM TO
     11 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 290947
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
247 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Low clouds and fog will be widespread this morning. Precipitation
chances will decrease today after lingering over the Idaho Panhandle
mainly this morning. The break between storm systems will be
brief, however, with another frontal system spreading rain into
Washington and Idaho Thursday and Friday. This rain will likely
linger into Saturday over the Idaho Panhandle.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and Tonight: With what`s left of the upper low over Ern Wa
and Srn BC continuing to fill, we`ll see rapid stabilization and
warming aloft today as short-wave ridging currently along the Pac
Nw coast moves to N Idaho by this evening. This will result in a
dry fcst for all but the Idaho Panhandle, which will see lingering
showers slowly decrease. With pcpn amnts around a half inch for
many sites across N Idaho and NE Wa overnight, upslope stratus
and/or fog will be common under the stabilizing air mass. Vsbys
restricted to less than a half mile will be possible, with upslope
drizzle likely into mid morning. Mostly cloudy skies from stratus
this morning are likely across the Upper Columbia Basin and near
the Cascades. The next chance of pcpn will be late tonight/Thurs
morning for the Wenatchee/Moses Lake/Cascades as deepening ascent
over a warm frontal boundary moving north through Oregon
approaches the area. Fog and/or stratus will be common for the
majority of NE Wa and the Idaho Panhandle valleys tonight ahead of
this warm front.bz

Thursday through Sunday: An unsettled weather pattern will
continue for the region as the next deep trof currently over the
Gulf of AK slowly passes through the region. The storm system is
becoming much more complex and difficult to forecast. The trof
will track toward the Western US coast Thursday then stall as
energy digs into its base off the California Coast. Expect a warm
front to lift north through region bringing increasing clouds and
rain into the East Slopes, and western reaches of the Columbia
Basin. A meridional frontal boundary with a rich plume of moisture
will cross into Wrn WA Thursday night then into the Cascades
Friday morning. Models have continued to trend slower with this
feature moving across Central and Eastern WA Friday and favor
drier conditions for a majority of eastern WA and Nrn ID until
Friday night with the exception of a brief warm front passage on
Thursday (which is only bringing the potential for a hundredth or
so). Given the meridional stretching of the parent trof, the front
weaken while crossing the Columbia Basin and barely makes it to
the WA/ID border until Friday night. This has resulted in further
decrease of PoPs and QPF during Halloween festivities and now
shifts the better chances for light rain west of a line from
Republic to Pendleton and east of Omak to Wenatchee. The ECMWF is
still a tad faster and given some uncertainty, we have not
completely abandoned the previous forecast but significant changes
are still a possibility which would include further lowering PoPs,
QPF, and adjusting timing further.

Now this is where things get interesting.  A significant piece of
shortwave energy is progged to eject from the base of the trof
and track NE through southern ID toward Central Montana. A
pronounced 700mb low develops and tracks along the decaying but
still very moist frontal boundary. Moisture and instability in a
trowal air stream wrap around the northwestern periphery of the
low, interact with the boundary, and QPF begins to ramp back up
across southeastern WA and Idaho. The exact track of the low is
likely going to change so its not out of the question that this
misses my CWA to the east or hammers us directly. The complexity
of how this storm system evolves from moist isentropic ascent, to
a crawling frontal boundary, to a wrap around event signifies how
much room there is for error and potential changes from the end of
the work week into the weekend. Confidence is increasing however
that drier conditions will return to the Cascades by Saturday
night as the course of events unfolds to our south and east.

Sunday night through Wednesday: Another fire-hose of atmospheric
moisture will become aimed at the Northwestern US bringing
several more rounds of precipitation, gusty winds, but also mild
temperatures. Some differences exist in regards to what latitude
to place the axis of precipitation each 12 hours and this is
expected as shortwave energy ejects along the International border
rippling the baroclinic zone. I must say, for early November and
in an active weather pattern, models are in remarkable agreement
regarding the large-scale pattern featuring this positively tilted
trof offshore and flat ridge over the northwestern third of the
US. This will not be a washout all four days, especially in the
lee of the Cascades and Columbia Basin given the W/SW jet, but the
moisture will be rich and the mountains are likely in for a
several rounds of moderate precipitation, especially north. The
subtropical origins of the moisture also suggest snow chances will
remain minimal below 6000 feet . /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A moist frontal zone makes a slow exit tonight. In its
wake the lingering low level moisture will allow for some MVFR to
IFR low clouds and fog formation most likely between 10Z to as
late as 18Z Wednesday. Otherwise the rain may bring about MVFR
Ceilings associated with the more intense rain showers. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  41  55  45  55  41 /  20   0  20  20  50  60
Coeur d`Alene  52  40  54  42  57  42 /  20   0  10  10  20  60
Pullman        56  44  59  47  58  43 /  20   0  20  10  20  70
Lewiston       61  46  62  48  61  44 /  20  10  10  10  20  60
Colville       51  41  53  42  55  40 /  20  10  40  50  60  50
Sandpoint      49  38  52  39  56  42 /  30  10  10  10  20  60
Kellogg        48  40  53  42  58  41 /  40   0  10  10  10  80
Moses Lake     59  45  57  47  55  41 /   0  20  40  40  60  30
Wenatchee      59  47  55  46  55  36 /  10  30  80  70  60  20
Omak           54  41  53  43  54  35 /  10  10  70  90  70  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





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