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000
FXUS66 KPQR 241608
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
908 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT ABUNDANT RAIN TO
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THE PAST TWO DAYS WAS
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW BUT
DECREASING SHOWERS. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN ITS WAKE...WITH MORE AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE AND GRADUAL WARMING ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMING TEMPERATURES...AND WITH LESS LOW CLOUDS. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN INLAND OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT HIGH 500 MB
HEIGHTS...FOR SOME MARINE INFLUENCE MAINLY NEAR THE COAST...AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY BRUSHING THE OREGON CASCADE CREST...AND
CONTINUED WARM WEATHER INLAND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE LOW THAT HAD PLAGUED SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON THE PAST TWO DAYS WITH COPIOUS RAINFALL HAS MOVED
EAST OF THE CASCADES IN WASHINGTON AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVED ONSHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL
WASHINGTON COAST AROUND 10Z EARLY THIS MORNING. SIGNIFICANT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN THE LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN ITS
WAKE...WITH A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH COAST
RANGE AREAS AND THE NORTHERN CASCADES FROM MAYBE DETROIT OR SO
NORTHWARD. THERE IS A SMALL RISK OF A SHOWER IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
BUT THE CHANCE IS RATHER SMALL THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP. AREAS DOWN NEAR EUGENE MAY
BREAK UP A LITTLE EARLIER...MORE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AREAS
ON THE NORTH COAST AND IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON MAY NOT BREAK AT ALL
BEFORE CLOUDS RETHICKEN AND SPREAD BACK IN TONIGHT.

THE MODELS REALLY DO NOT SHOW MUCH IF ANY UPPER RIDGING TONIGHT...
WITH THE UPPER FLOW EVEN SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC AT 12Z FRIDAY. THUS EXPECT
FAIRLY DECENT LOW CLOUDS COVERAGE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE AROUND
50N/135W THIS MORNING THAT MAY BE THE FEATURE DEVELOPING SOME PATCHY
QPF ALONG THE NORTH COAST FORECAST ZONES EARLY FRIDAY...AND WILL
LEAVE THE PATCHY DRIZZLE IN.

500 MB HEIGHTS DO BEGIN TO BUILD A BIT FRIDAY SO WE SHOULD SEE MORE
SUNSHINE DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPS INLAND SHOULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. CLOUDS AT THE
COAST MAY AGAIN TEND TO HANG ON FOR A WHILE IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
THE WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT CAUSES THE PATCHY MORNING DRIZZLE.

THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN EARNEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 580S BY
AFTERNOON. AFTER SOME BRIEF MORNING LOW CLOUDS INLAND ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND INLAND TEMPS INTO
THE MID 80S ON SATURDAY. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST TO COME ONSHORE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIME THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THE LOCATION OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION.THE WAVE IS UNRESOLVED IN THE MEAN 500-MB HEIGHT
FIELD FROM GEFS AND NAEFS...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE IT MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN AMPLITUDE AND WESTWARD AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MID-WEEK.  SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES INLAND
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. ALSO
EXPECT BREEZY SSW WINDS TO TURN WESTERLY AND SUBSIDE LATER THIS
MORNING. BY 19Z...EXPECT WE WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING
BREAKS BETWEEN CLOUDS AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING. SHOULD SEE
WIDESPREAD CLEARING AFTER 03Z AS THE AIR MASS STABILIZES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z IN A PASSING SHOWER.
CLOUDS BREAKING UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. PYLE
&&

.MARINE...LOW PRES MOVED INLAND THIS MORNING AND WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS NOW SHIFTING TO THE NW. AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER
INLAND...WINDS WILL EASE AND TURN MORE WESTERLY LATER THIS AM INTO
THIS AFTERNOON.

SEAS GENERALLY 7 TO 9 FT ON THE WATERS N AT CURRENT...WITH PERIODS
STILL SHORT AT AROUND 9 SEC. HOWEVER...EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WITH 4 TO 5 FT BY LATE EVENING OVER MOST OF THE WATERS.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD OVER NE PAC TONIGHT AND FRI...WITH THERMAL
LOW PRES BUILDING OVER NW CALIF. THIS WILL BRING A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY STEEP
SEAS...ESPECIALLY S OF NEWPORT. PYLE/ROCKEY
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 241608
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
908 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT ABUNDANT RAIN TO
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THE PAST TWO DAYS WAS
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW BUT
DECREASING SHOWERS. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN ITS WAKE...WITH MORE AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE AND GRADUAL WARMING ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMING TEMPERATURES...AND WITH LESS LOW CLOUDS. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN INLAND OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT HIGH 500 MB
HEIGHTS...FOR SOME MARINE INFLUENCE MAINLY NEAR THE COAST...AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY BRUSHING THE OREGON CASCADE CREST...AND
CONTINUED WARM WEATHER INLAND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE LOW THAT HAD PLAGUED SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON THE PAST TWO DAYS WITH COPIOUS RAINFALL HAS MOVED
EAST OF THE CASCADES IN WASHINGTON AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVED ONSHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL
WASHINGTON COAST AROUND 10Z EARLY THIS MORNING. SIGNIFICANT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN THE LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN ITS
WAKE...WITH A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH COAST
RANGE AREAS AND THE NORTHERN CASCADES FROM MAYBE DETROIT OR SO
NORTHWARD. THERE IS A SMALL RISK OF A SHOWER IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
BUT THE CHANCE IS RATHER SMALL THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP. AREAS DOWN NEAR EUGENE MAY
BREAK UP A LITTLE EARLIER...MORE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AREAS
ON THE NORTH COAST AND IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON MAY NOT BREAK AT ALL
BEFORE CLOUDS RETHICKEN AND SPREAD BACK IN TONIGHT.

THE MODELS REALLY DO NOT SHOW MUCH IF ANY UPPER RIDGING TONIGHT...
WITH THE UPPER FLOW EVEN SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC AT 12Z FRIDAY. THUS EXPECT
FAIRLY DECENT LOW CLOUDS COVERAGE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE AROUND
50N/135W THIS MORNING THAT MAY BE THE FEATURE DEVELOPING SOME PATCHY
QPF ALONG THE NORTH COAST FORECAST ZONES EARLY FRIDAY...AND WILL
LEAVE THE PATCHY DRIZZLE IN.

500 MB HEIGHTS DO BEGIN TO BUILD A BIT FRIDAY SO WE SHOULD SEE MORE
SUNSHINE DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPS INLAND SHOULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. CLOUDS AT THE
COAST MAY AGAIN TEND TO HANG ON FOR A WHILE IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
THE WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT CAUSES THE PATCHY MORNING DRIZZLE.

THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN EARNEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 580S BY
AFTERNOON. AFTER SOME BRIEF MORNING LOW CLOUDS INLAND ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND INLAND TEMPS INTO
THE MID 80S ON SATURDAY. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST TO COME ONSHORE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIME THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THE LOCATION OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION.THE WAVE IS UNRESOLVED IN THE MEAN 500-MB HEIGHT
FIELD FROM GEFS AND NAEFS...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE IT MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN AMPLITUDE AND WESTWARD AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MID-WEEK.  SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES INLAND
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. ALSO
EXPECT BREEZY SSW WINDS TO TURN WESTERLY AND SUBSIDE LATER THIS
MORNING. BY 19Z...EXPECT WE WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING
BREAKS BETWEEN CLOUDS AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING. SHOULD SEE
WIDESPREAD CLEARING AFTER 03Z AS THE AIR MASS STABILIZES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z IN A PASSING SHOWER.
CLOUDS BREAKING UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. PYLE
&&

.MARINE...LOW PRES MOVED INLAND THIS MORNING AND WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS NOW SHIFTING TO THE NW. AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER
INLAND...WINDS WILL EASE AND TURN MORE WESTERLY LATER THIS AM INTO
THIS AFTERNOON.

SEAS GENERALLY 7 TO 9 FT ON THE WATERS N AT CURRENT...WITH PERIODS
STILL SHORT AT AROUND 9 SEC. HOWEVER...EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WITH 4 TO 5 FT BY LATE EVENING OVER MOST OF THE WATERS.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD OVER NE PAC TONIGHT AND FRI...WITH THERMAL
LOW PRES BUILDING OVER NW CALIF. THIS WILL BRING A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY STEEP
SEAS...ESPECIALLY S OF NEWPORT. PYLE/ROCKEY
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 241608
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
908 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT ABUNDANT RAIN TO
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THE PAST TWO DAYS WAS
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW BUT
DECREASING SHOWERS. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN ITS WAKE...WITH MORE AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE AND GRADUAL WARMING ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMING TEMPERATURES...AND WITH LESS LOW CLOUDS. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN INLAND OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT HIGH 500 MB
HEIGHTS...FOR SOME MARINE INFLUENCE MAINLY NEAR THE COAST...AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY BRUSHING THE OREGON CASCADE CREST...AND
CONTINUED WARM WEATHER INLAND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE LOW THAT HAD PLAGUED SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON THE PAST TWO DAYS WITH COPIOUS RAINFALL HAS MOVED
EAST OF THE CASCADES IN WASHINGTON AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVED ONSHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL
WASHINGTON COAST AROUND 10Z EARLY THIS MORNING. SIGNIFICANT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN THE LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN ITS
WAKE...WITH A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH COAST
RANGE AREAS AND THE NORTHERN CASCADES FROM MAYBE DETROIT OR SO
NORTHWARD. THERE IS A SMALL RISK OF A SHOWER IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
BUT THE CHANCE IS RATHER SMALL THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP. AREAS DOWN NEAR EUGENE MAY
BREAK UP A LITTLE EARLIER...MORE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AREAS
ON THE NORTH COAST AND IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON MAY NOT BREAK AT ALL
BEFORE CLOUDS RETHICKEN AND SPREAD BACK IN TONIGHT.

THE MODELS REALLY DO NOT SHOW MUCH IF ANY UPPER RIDGING TONIGHT...
WITH THE UPPER FLOW EVEN SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC AT 12Z FRIDAY. THUS EXPECT
FAIRLY DECENT LOW CLOUDS COVERAGE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE AROUND
50N/135W THIS MORNING THAT MAY BE THE FEATURE DEVELOPING SOME PATCHY
QPF ALONG THE NORTH COAST FORECAST ZONES EARLY FRIDAY...AND WILL
LEAVE THE PATCHY DRIZZLE IN.

500 MB HEIGHTS DO BEGIN TO BUILD A BIT FRIDAY SO WE SHOULD SEE MORE
SUNSHINE DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPS INLAND SHOULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. CLOUDS AT THE
COAST MAY AGAIN TEND TO HANG ON FOR A WHILE IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
THE WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT CAUSES THE PATCHY MORNING DRIZZLE.

THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN EARNEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 580S BY
AFTERNOON. AFTER SOME BRIEF MORNING LOW CLOUDS INLAND ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND INLAND TEMPS INTO
THE MID 80S ON SATURDAY. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST TO COME ONSHORE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIME THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THE LOCATION OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION.THE WAVE IS UNRESOLVED IN THE MEAN 500-MB HEIGHT
FIELD FROM GEFS AND NAEFS...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE IT MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN AMPLITUDE AND WESTWARD AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MID-WEEK.  SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES INLAND
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. ALSO
EXPECT BREEZY SSW WINDS TO TURN WESTERLY AND SUBSIDE LATER THIS
MORNING. BY 19Z...EXPECT WE WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING
BREAKS BETWEEN CLOUDS AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING. SHOULD SEE
WIDESPREAD CLEARING AFTER 03Z AS THE AIR MASS STABILIZES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z IN A PASSING SHOWER.
CLOUDS BREAKING UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. PYLE
&&

.MARINE...LOW PRES MOVED INLAND THIS MORNING AND WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS NOW SHIFTING TO THE NW. AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER
INLAND...WINDS WILL EASE AND TURN MORE WESTERLY LATER THIS AM INTO
THIS AFTERNOON.

SEAS GENERALLY 7 TO 9 FT ON THE WATERS N AT CURRENT...WITH PERIODS
STILL SHORT AT AROUND 9 SEC. HOWEVER...EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WITH 4 TO 5 FT BY LATE EVENING OVER MOST OF THE WATERS.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD OVER NE PAC TONIGHT AND FRI...WITH THERMAL
LOW PRES BUILDING OVER NW CALIF. THIS WILL BRING A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY STEEP
SEAS...ESPECIALLY S OF NEWPORT. PYLE/ROCKEY
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 241608
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
908 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT ABUNDANT RAIN TO
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THE PAST TWO DAYS WAS
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW BUT
DECREASING SHOWERS. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN ITS WAKE...WITH MORE AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE AND GRADUAL WARMING ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMING TEMPERATURES...AND WITH LESS LOW CLOUDS. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN INLAND OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT HIGH 500 MB
HEIGHTS...FOR SOME MARINE INFLUENCE MAINLY NEAR THE COAST...AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY BRUSHING THE OREGON CASCADE CREST...AND
CONTINUED WARM WEATHER INLAND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE LOW THAT HAD PLAGUED SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON THE PAST TWO DAYS WITH COPIOUS RAINFALL HAS MOVED
EAST OF THE CASCADES IN WASHINGTON AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVED ONSHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL
WASHINGTON COAST AROUND 10Z EARLY THIS MORNING. SIGNIFICANT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN THE LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN ITS
WAKE...WITH A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH COAST
RANGE AREAS AND THE NORTHERN CASCADES FROM MAYBE DETROIT OR SO
NORTHWARD. THERE IS A SMALL RISK OF A SHOWER IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
BUT THE CHANCE IS RATHER SMALL THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP. AREAS DOWN NEAR EUGENE MAY
BREAK UP A LITTLE EARLIER...MORE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AREAS
ON THE NORTH COAST AND IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON MAY NOT BREAK AT ALL
BEFORE CLOUDS RETHICKEN AND SPREAD BACK IN TONIGHT.

THE MODELS REALLY DO NOT SHOW MUCH IF ANY UPPER RIDGING TONIGHT...
WITH THE UPPER FLOW EVEN SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC AT 12Z FRIDAY. THUS EXPECT
FAIRLY DECENT LOW CLOUDS COVERAGE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE AROUND
50N/135W THIS MORNING THAT MAY BE THE FEATURE DEVELOPING SOME PATCHY
QPF ALONG THE NORTH COAST FORECAST ZONES EARLY FRIDAY...AND WILL
LEAVE THE PATCHY DRIZZLE IN.

500 MB HEIGHTS DO BEGIN TO BUILD A BIT FRIDAY SO WE SHOULD SEE MORE
SUNSHINE DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPS INLAND SHOULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. CLOUDS AT THE
COAST MAY AGAIN TEND TO HANG ON FOR A WHILE IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
THE WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT CAUSES THE PATCHY MORNING DRIZZLE.

THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN EARNEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 580S BY
AFTERNOON. AFTER SOME BRIEF MORNING LOW CLOUDS INLAND ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND INLAND TEMPS INTO
THE MID 80S ON SATURDAY. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST TO COME ONSHORE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIME THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THE LOCATION OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION.THE WAVE IS UNRESOLVED IN THE MEAN 500-MB HEIGHT
FIELD FROM GEFS AND NAEFS...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE IT MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN AMPLITUDE AND WESTWARD AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MID-WEEK.  SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES INLAND
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. ALSO
EXPECT BREEZY SSW WINDS TO TURN WESTERLY AND SUBSIDE LATER THIS
MORNING. BY 19Z...EXPECT WE WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING
BREAKS BETWEEN CLOUDS AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING. SHOULD SEE
WIDESPREAD CLEARING AFTER 03Z AS THE AIR MASS STABILIZES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z IN A PASSING SHOWER.
CLOUDS BREAKING UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. PYLE
&&

.MARINE...LOW PRES MOVED INLAND THIS MORNING AND WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS NOW SHIFTING TO THE NW. AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER
INLAND...WINDS WILL EASE AND TURN MORE WESTERLY LATER THIS AM INTO
THIS AFTERNOON.

SEAS GENERALLY 7 TO 9 FT ON THE WATERS N AT CURRENT...WITH PERIODS
STILL SHORT AT AROUND 9 SEC. HOWEVER...EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WITH 4 TO 5 FT BY LATE EVENING OVER MOST OF THE WATERS.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD OVER NE PAC TONIGHT AND FRI...WITH THERMAL
LOW PRES BUILDING OVER NW CALIF. THIS WILL BRING A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY STEEP
SEAS...ESPECIALLY S OF NEWPORT. PYLE/ROCKEY
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 241608
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
908 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT ABUNDANT RAIN TO
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THE PAST TWO DAYS WAS
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW BUT
DECREASING SHOWERS. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN ITS WAKE...WITH MORE AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE AND GRADUAL WARMING ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMING TEMPERATURES...AND WITH LESS LOW CLOUDS. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN INLAND OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT HIGH 500 MB
HEIGHTS...FOR SOME MARINE INFLUENCE MAINLY NEAR THE COAST...AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY BRUSHING THE OREGON CASCADE CREST...AND
CONTINUED WARM WEATHER INLAND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE LOW THAT HAD PLAGUED SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON THE PAST TWO DAYS WITH COPIOUS RAINFALL HAS MOVED
EAST OF THE CASCADES IN WASHINGTON AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVED ONSHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL
WASHINGTON COAST AROUND 10Z EARLY THIS MORNING. SIGNIFICANT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN THE LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN ITS
WAKE...WITH A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH COAST
RANGE AREAS AND THE NORTHERN CASCADES FROM MAYBE DETROIT OR SO
NORTHWARD. THERE IS A SMALL RISK OF A SHOWER IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
BUT THE CHANCE IS RATHER SMALL THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP. AREAS DOWN NEAR EUGENE MAY
BREAK UP A LITTLE EARLIER...MORE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AREAS
ON THE NORTH COAST AND IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON MAY NOT BREAK AT ALL
BEFORE CLOUDS RETHICKEN AND SPREAD BACK IN TONIGHT.

THE MODELS REALLY DO NOT SHOW MUCH IF ANY UPPER RIDGING TONIGHT...
WITH THE UPPER FLOW EVEN SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC AT 12Z FRIDAY. THUS EXPECT
FAIRLY DECENT LOW CLOUDS COVERAGE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE AROUND
50N/135W THIS MORNING THAT MAY BE THE FEATURE DEVELOPING SOME PATCHY
QPF ALONG THE NORTH COAST FORECAST ZONES EARLY FRIDAY...AND WILL
LEAVE THE PATCHY DRIZZLE IN.

500 MB HEIGHTS DO BEGIN TO BUILD A BIT FRIDAY SO WE SHOULD SEE MORE
SUNSHINE DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPS INLAND SHOULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. CLOUDS AT THE
COAST MAY AGAIN TEND TO HANG ON FOR A WHILE IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
THE WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT CAUSES THE PATCHY MORNING DRIZZLE.

THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN EARNEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 580S BY
AFTERNOON. AFTER SOME BRIEF MORNING LOW CLOUDS INLAND ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND INLAND TEMPS INTO
THE MID 80S ON SATURDAY. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST TO COME ONSHORE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIME THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THE LOCATION OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION.THE WAVE IS UNRESOLVED IN THE MEAN 500-MB HEIGHT
FIELD FROM GEFS AND NAEFS...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE IT MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN AMPLITUDE AND WESTWARD AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MID-WEEK.  SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES INLAND
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. ALSO
EXPECT BREEZY SSW WINDS TO TURN WESTERLY AND SUBSIDE LATER THIS
MORNING. BY 19Z...EXPECT WE WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING
BREAKS BETWEEN CLOUDS AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING. SHOULD SEE
WIDESPREAD CLEARING AFTER 03Z AS THE AIR MASS STABILIZES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z IN A PASSING SHOWER.
CLOUDS BREAKING UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. PYLE
&&

.MARINE...LOW PRES MOVED INLAND THIS MORNING AND WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS NOW SHIFTING TO THE NW. AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER
INLAND...WINDS WILL EASE AND TURN MORE WESTERLY LATER THIS AM INTO
THIS AFTERNOON.

SEAS GENERALLY 7 TO 9 FT ON THE WATERS N AT CURRENT...WITH PERIODS
STILL SHORT AT AROUND 9 SEC. HOWEVER...EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WITH 4 TO 5 FT BY LATE EVENING OVER MOST OF THE WATERS.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD OVER NE PAC TONIGHT AND FRI...WITH THERMAL
LOW PRES BUILDING OVER NW CALIF. THIS WILL BRING A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY STEEP
SEAS...ESPECIALLY S OF NEWPORT. PYLE/ROCKEY
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSEW 241539
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL DECREASE
TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST BRITISH COLUMBIA MOVES
INTO ALBERTA. THERE MAY BE A FEW SUN BREAKS IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
AIR MASS BEGINS TO DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START BUILDING OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY...BRINGING SUNNY WARMER WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A 5590 METER UPPER LOW IS OVER SOUTHEAST BRITISH
COLUMBIA THIS MORNING AND MOVING SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST. THE AIR MASS
OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON REMAINS QUITE MOIST...WITH MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW AND MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN STEADILY
DECREASING THIS MORNING THOUGH...AND AT 8 AM WAS LIMITED MAINLY TO
THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR...EVERETT AREA...AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTH
CASCADES.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA LATE TODAY...AND THE
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST WITH IT. THE AIR MASS OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN GENERALLY MOIST BELOW 6000 OR 7000 FT
THOUGH AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. SOME SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER
THE CASCADES AND THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A WEAK PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE NORTH OF SEATTLE...BUT OUTSIDE OF THAT SHOWERS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY AT MOST. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME SUN
BREAKS IN THE AFTERNOON.

WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT AS THE
LOW MOVES INTO SASKATCHEWAN...AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL JUST BEGIN
BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL VEER
TO NORTHWEST...AND THE AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY DRY. CLOUDS OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BACK INTO THE 70S OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
WITH ITS AXIS ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE 500 MB
HEIGHTS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 5820 METERS...
AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAK. THERE WILL BE SOME MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS AT NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST...BUT
THE DAY WILL BE SUNNY AND WARMER YET.   MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...HERE IS THE LONG TERM SECTION FROM THE EARLY MORNING
FORECAST DISCUSSION -- LONG RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
STRENGTHENING A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WRN U.S.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT APPEARS THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SW FLOW
ALOFT OVER WA. THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN FAVORS LIGHT W-NW SURFACE
GRADIENTS WHICH MAY BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE COAST BUT PROBABLY NOT
MAKING MUCH PROGRESS INLAND. GFS MOS GIVES LOW TO MID 80S SUNDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND FURTHER
WEST WITH THE RIDGE WHICH COULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
90 DEGREES. EITHER WAY IT WILL BE A BIG CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WITH
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OVER SOUTHEAST BRITISH COLUMBIA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY. AIR MASS IS UNSTABLE AND MOIST THIS
MORNING BUT WILL STABILIZE AND DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY MVFR 2-3K FT THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR SOME IFR
PATCHES MAINLY IN THE NORTH INTERIOR. THERE WILL BE AN OVERALL
IMPROVING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXCEPT MESOSCALE
MODELS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER
THE CENTRAL SOUND LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KSEA...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE VFR AFTER 21Z.
THERE IS SOME CHANCE A PSCZ OVER THE CENTRAL SOUND WILL AFFECT THE
TERMINAL. SOUTHWEST WIND 8-12 KT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE STRAIT. HAVE
UPDATED THE GRIDS AND FORECASTS FOR 20-30 KT WESTERLY WINDS IN THE
STRAIT BEGINNING THIS MORNING. MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS WILL EASE THIS AFTERNOON.

A MORE TYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES IN THE STRAIT POSSIBLE AT TIMES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COAST...CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT...
NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 241539
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL DECREASE
TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST BRITISH COLUMBIA MOVES
INTO ALBERTA. THERE MAY BE A FEW SUN BREAKS IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
AIR MASS BEGINS TO DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START BUILDING OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY...BRINGING SUNNY WARMER WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A 5590 METER UPPER LOW IS OVER SOUTHEAST BRITISH
COLUMBIA THIS MORNING AND MOVING SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST. THE AIR MASS
OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON REMAINS QUITE MOIST...WITH MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW AND MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN STEADILY
DECREASING THIS MORNING THOUGH...AND AT 8 AM WAS LIMITED MAINLY TO
THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR...EVERETT AREA...AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTH
CASCADES.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA LATE TODAY...AND THE
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST WITH IT. THE AIR MASS OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN GENERALLY MOIST BELOW 6000 OR 7000 FT
THOUGH AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. SOME SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER
THE CASCADES AND THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A WEAK PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE NORTH OF SEATTLE...BUT OUTSIDE OF THAT SHOWERS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY AT MOST. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME SUN
BREAKS IN THE AFTERNOON.

WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT AS THE
LOW MOVES INTO SASKATCHEWAN...AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL JUST BEGIN
BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL VEER
TO NORTHWEST...AND THE AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY DRY. CLOUDS OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BACK INTO THE 70S OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
WITH ITS AXIS ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE 500 MB
HEIGHTS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 5820 METERS...
AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAK. THERE WILL BE SOME MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS AT NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST...BUT
THE DAY WILL BE SUNNY AND WARMER YET.   MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...HERE IS THE LONG TERM SECTION FROM THE EARLY MORNING
FORECAST DISCUSSION -- LONG RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
STRENGTHENING A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WRN U.S.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT APPEARS THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SW FLOW
ALOFT OVER WA. THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN FAVORS LIGHT W-NW SURFACE
GRADIENTS WHICH MAY BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE COAST BUT PROBABLY NOT
MAKING MUCH PROGRESS INLAND. GFS MOS GIVES LOW TO MID 80S SUNDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND FURTHER
WEST WITH THE RIDGE WHICH COULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
90 DEGREES. EITHER WAY IT WILL BE A BIG CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WITH
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OVER SOUTHEAST BRITISH COLUMBIA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY. AIR MASS IS UNSTABLE AND MOIST THIS
MORNING BUT WILL STABILIZE AND DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY MVFR 2-3K FT THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR SOME IFR
PATCHES MAINLY IN THE NORTH INTERIOR. THERE WILL BE AN OVERALL
IMPROVING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXCEPT MESOSCALE
MODELS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER
THE CENTRAL SOUND LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KSEA...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE VFR AFTER 21Z.
THERE IS SOME CHANCE A PSCZ OVER THE CENTRAL SOUND WILL AFFECT THE
TERMINAL. SOUTHWEST WIND 8-12 KT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE STRAIT. HAVE
UPDATED THE GRIDS AND FORECASTS FOR 20-30 KT WESTERLY WINDS IN THE
STRAIT BEGINNING THIS MORNING. MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS WILL EASE THIS AFTERNOON.

A MORE TYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES IN THE STRAIT POSSIBLE AT TIMES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COAST...CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT...
NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




  [top]

000
FXUS66 KOTX 241130
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
430 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...Lingering showers and a few minor thunderstorms will
continue for the northern mountains today as a cold front exits
the region. Cool and breezy weather is expected today behind the
cold front. Temperatures will rebound by the weekend and be
accompanied by dry conditions. Hot weather will return to the area
on Sunday and early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday: The Inland Northwest will find waning
shower chances, breezy conditions and cool temperatures. Over the
next 24-hours an upper low centered over north Washington tracks
toward the Canadian Prairies. The low, and a weakening deformation
axis wrapped around it, will provide continued shower chances
across the Cascades and northern mountains. Some showers may also
impact the Highway 2 and I-90 corridor, from the Waterville
Plateau into the central Panhandle. However as the low continues
to shift northeast and drier air and large-scale subsidence moves
in behind it, shower chances will begin retreat toward the Cascade
crest and shift further into the northeast Washington and northern
Panhandle mountains and dissipate this afternoon and evening. With
a lack of significant instability, the threat of thunder will be
minimal.

A modest pressure gradient and good mixing this afternoon with
the strong subsidence will produce breezy conditions through the
day. Gusts between 25 and 35 mph will be common from Chelan county
east through the Spokane area and Palouse. Winds are expected to
abate through the evening, particularly past 8 pm or so. As for
temperatures, readings will be below normal. Regional 850mb
temperatures under the low range from the upper single digits in
the Cascades to the lower teens toward the Panhandle. This
supports high temperatures some 10-15 degree below average. This
means many areas, outside of the deeper Columbia Basin and L-C
Valley, will only see highs in the upper 60s to mid-70s.

Tonight and Friday the region transitions to a more zonal flow. A
secondary mid-level disturbance slips onshore overnight into
Friday morning, but the brunt of the lift remains north of the
Canadian border. So look for dry weather and a few clouds. Winds
will be pick up again in the afternoon as the gradients tighten
again slightly with the northern wave and increased mixing, but
speeds will be relatively lower. A few gusts between 15 to 20 mph
will be possible in the afternoon. Temperatures will remain on the
cool side of average, but overall values look about 5 degrees
milder as compared to Thursday. /J. Cote`

Friday night through Wednesday...Latest medium range GFS and ECMWF
guidance is in remarkably good agreement in depicting a return to
torrid dog-day summer conditions through the extended period. A
strong 4 corners upper high will build into the region...becoming
progressively stronger each day through Monday before stabilizing.
this will allow the establishment of a strong low level thermal
trough over the Columbia Basin which will promote hot days and
sultry overnights through Wednesday. On or about Monday a shot of
monsoonal moisture may side-swipe the southeastern zones and Idaho
Panhandle with a small threat of thunderstorms...but this is a low
confidence forecast at this point. Confidence is high that the
forecast area will return to a dry and sunny above normal/hot
stretch of summer weather this weekend through the middle of next
week. /Fugazzi


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: An exiting upper low will bring some cloudiness and a
threat of a few showers and, more notably, breezy conditions.
Local wind gusts between 25 to 35 mph will be possible this
afternoon and early evening, focused especially from 18-02Z. The
shower threat will be best across the Cascade crest and northern
mountains, away from TAF sites. However the isolated shower
cannot be ruled out this morning. Also with recent precipitation
and the low level southwest flow brief MVFR cigs are possible this
morning across the GEG/SFF/COE/PUW area. However confidence is
low and VFR conditions are depicted in TAFs. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        70  50  76  54  84  59 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  67  49  74  48  82  54 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Pullman        69  46  75  44  83  50 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       78  55  83  55  91  61 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       70  49  78  48  87  53 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      65  47  72  47  81  50 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        64  49  72  49  81  56 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     76  54  83  53  89  60 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      73  57  82  60  87  65 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           74  52  82  53  88  58 /  20  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 241130
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
430 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...Lingering showers and a few minor thunderstorms will
continue for the northern mountains today as a cold front exits
the region. Cool and breezy weather is expected today behind the
cold front. Temperatures will rebound by the weekend and be
accompanied by dry conditions. Hot weather will return to the area
on Sunday and early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday: The Inland Northwest will find waning
shower chances, breezy conditions and cool temperatures. Over the
next 24-hours an upper low centered over north Washington tracks
toward the Canadian Prairies. The low, and a weakening deformation
axis wrapped around it, will provide continued shower chances
across the Cascades and northern mountains. Some showers may also
impact the Highway 2 and I-90 corridor, from the Waterville
Plateau into the central Panhandle. However as the low continues
to shift northeast and drier air and large-scale subsidence moves
in behind it, shower chances will begin retreat toward the Cascade
crest and shift further into the northeast Washington and northern
Panhandle mountains and dissipate this afternoon and evening. With
a lack of significant instability, the threat of thunder will be
minimal.

A modest pressure gradient and good mixing this afternoon with
the strong subsidence will produce breezy conditions through the
day. Gusts between 25 and 35 mph will be common from Chelan county
east through the Spokane area and Palouse. Winds are expected to
abate through the evening, particularly past 8 pm or so. As for
temperatures, readings will be below normal. Regional 850mb
temperatures under the low range from the upper single digits in
the Cascades to the lower teens toward the Panhandle. This
supports high temperatures some 10-15 degree below average. This
means many areas, outside of the deeper Columbia Basin and L-C
Valley, will only see highs in the upper 60s to mid-70s.

Tonight and Friday the region transitions to a more zonal flow. A
secondary mid-level disturbance slips onshore overnight into
Friday morning, but the brunt of the lift remains north of the
Canadian border. So look for dry weather and a few clouds. Winds
will be pick up again in the afternoon as the gradients tighten
again slightly with the northern wave and increased mixing, but
speeds will be relatively lower. A few gusts between 15 to 20 mph
will be possible in the afternoon. Temperatures will remain on the
cool side of average, but overall values look about 5 degrees
milder as compared to Thursday. /J. Cote`

Friday night through Wednesday...Latest medium range GFS and ECMWF
guidance is in remarkably good agreement in depicting a return to
torrid dog-day summer conditions through the extended period. A
strong 4 corners upper high will build into the region...becoming
progressively stronger each day through Monday before stabilizing.
this will allow the establishment of a strong low level thermal
trough over the Columbia Basin which will promote hot days and
sultry overnights through Wednesday. On or about Monday a shot of
monsoonal moisture may side-swipe the southeastern zones and Idaho
Panhandle with a small threat of thunderstorms...but this is a low
confidence forecast at this point. Confidence is high that the
forecast area will return to a dry and sunny above normal/hot
stretch of summer weather this weekend through the middle of next
week. /Fugazzi


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: An exiting upper low will bring some cloudiness and a
threat of a few showers and, more notably, breezy conditions.
Local wind gusts between 25 to 35 mph will be possible this
afternoon and early evening, focused especially from 18-02Z. The
shower threat will be best across the Cascade crest and northern
mountains, away from TAF sites. However the isolated shower
cannot be ruled out this morning. Also with recent precipitation
and the low level southwest flow brief MVFR cigs are possible this
morning across the GEG/SFF/COE/PUW area. However confidence is
low and VFR conditions are depicted in TAFs. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        70  50  76  54  84  59 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  67  49  74  48  82  54 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Pullman        69  46  75  44  83  50 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       78  55  83  55  91  61 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       70  49  78  48  87  53 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      65  47  72  47  81  50 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        64  49  72  49  81  56 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     76  54  83  53  89  60 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      73  57  82  60  87  65 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           74  52  82  53  88  58 /  20  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 241041
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER WASHINGTON WILL SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA TODAY. SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT WHERE A PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE DEVELOPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
ON FRIDAY AND DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL WA EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS AGREE
THAT THE MAIN LOW CENTER WILL TRACK NE AND MOVE INTO SRN ALBERTA
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL FEATURES OF INTEREST THAT
WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER TODAY EVEN AS THE LOW SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE
AREA. THE LATEST RADAR LOOP INDICATES SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY
CONCENTRATED OVER THE S COAST...SW INTERIOR...AND THROUGH PUGET
SOUND EASTWARD OVER THE CASCADES. CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED NOTABLY
OVERNIGHT WITH NO LIGHTNING STRIKES SINCE LAST EVENING INDICATING
LOWER TOPPED SHOWERS. THE VORT MAX RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ROTATE E OF THE CASCADES EARLY THIS MORNING SO
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD GENERALLY DECREASE. ANOTHER AREA TO
WATCH IS THE BAND OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/RAINFALL OVER
B.C./VANCOUVER ISLAND AND JUST BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE EXTREME N
INTERIOR. THE WRFGFS APPEARS TO MATCH UP BEST WITH CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS AND IS WETTER ACROSS THE N INTERIOR THIS MORNING. DECIDED TO
GO WITH A BLEND OF MOS POPS WEIGHTED TOWARD THE WRFGFS
IDEA...CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE N AND LIKELY POPS SOUTH.

SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. CHANCE POPS
SHOULD SUFFICE FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS WITH LOSS OF DYNAMICS AND
COOL TEMPERATURES LIMITING DIURNAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...BOTH THE
NAM-12 AND WRFGFS DEVELOP A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW THROUGH THE STRAIT EXTENDS INTO THE N SOUND
AND ENCOUNTERS THE SOUTHERLIES. BOTH THE NAM AND WRFGFS INDICATE THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL GET GOING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING. NOT ALL MODELS SHOW THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
LASTING INTO THE EVENING AND EVEN THE NAM-12 HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT
FROM RUN TO RUN. WILL OPT TO LEAVE THE EVENING FORECAST UNCHANGED
AND ALLOW THE NEXT SHIFT TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING AND POPS.

MOIST WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT IT WILL BE DRY FOR MOST THE AREA. MOST
AREAS WILL GET SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL WARM UP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE COAST/STRAIT.
UPPER HEIGHTS RISE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGHS NUDGES
NWD. THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY COULD REACH CLOSE TO 80...ABOUT 15
DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY`S CHILLY HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
STRENGTHENING A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WRN U.S.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT APPEARS THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SW FLOW
ALOFT OVER WA. THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN FAVORS LIGHT W-NW SURFACE
GRADIENTS WHICH MAY BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE COAST BUT PROBABLY NOT
MAKING MUCH PROGRESS INLAND. GFS MOS GIVES LOW TO MID 80S SUNDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND FURTHER
WEST WITH THE RIDGE WHICH COULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
90 DEGREES. EITHER WAY IT WILL BE A BIG CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WITH
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WASHINGTON COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO EASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS
MORNING. LIGHT FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE AIR MASS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AND MOIST
THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
INLAND. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING TO
MVFR LEVELS WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN AREAS WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MESOSCALE MODELS SHOWING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PSCZ OVER THE CENTRAL SOUND LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOWING PSCZ FORMING
OVER THE CENTRAL SOUND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH
SOME CHANCE THAT IT WILL AFFECT THE METRO TERMINALS. SOUTH WINDS 8
TO 10 KT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST BY MIDDAY.

&&

.MARINE...THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ONSHORE THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN
AND CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND. MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS WILL EASE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH THE STRAIT WILL STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING
15-25 KT WESTERLIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT THROUGH
TONIGHT. SIMILARLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL AFFECT
THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

A MORE TYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES IN THE STRAIT AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS...CENTRAL AND EAST
     STRAIT...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML











000
FXUS66 KSEW 241041
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER WASHINGTON WILL SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA TODAY. SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT WHERE A PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE DEVELOPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
ON FRIDAY AND DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL WA EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS AGREE
THAT THE MAIN LOW CENTER WILL TRACK NE AND MOVE INTO SRN ALBERTA
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL FEATURES OF INTEREST THAT
WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER TODAY EVEN AS THE LOW SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE
AREA. THE LATEST RADAR LOOP INDICATES SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY
CONCENTRATED OVER THE S COAST...SW INTERIOR...AND THROUGH PUGET
SOUND EASTWARD OVER THE CASCADES. CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED NOTABLY
OVERNIGHT WITH NO LIGHTNING STRIKES SINCE LAST EVENING INDICATING
LOWER TOPPED SHOWERS. THE VORT MAX RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ROTATE E OF THE CASCADES EARLY THIS MORNING SO
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD GENERALLY DECREASE. ANOTHER AREA TO
WATCH IS THE BAND OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/RAINFALL OVER
B.C./VANCOUVER ISLAND AND JUST BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE EXTREME N
INTERIOR. THE WRFGFS APPEARS TO MATCH UP BEST WITH CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS AND IS WETTER ACROSS THE N INTERIOR THIS MORNING. DECIDED TO
GO WITH A BLEND OF MOS POPS WEIGHTED TOWARD THE WRFGFS
IDEA...CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE N AND LIKELY POPS SOUTH.

SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. CHANCE POPS
SHOULD SUFFICE FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS WITH LOSS OF DYNAMICS AND
COOL TEMPERATURES LIMITING DIURNAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...BOTH THE
NAM-12 AND WRFGFS DEVELOP A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW THROUGH THE STRAIT EXTENDS INTO THE N SOUND
AND ENCOUNTERS THE SOUTHERLIES. BOTH THE NAM AND WRFGFS INDICATE THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL GET GOING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING. NOT ALL MODELS SHOW THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
LASTING INTO THE EVENING AND EVEN THE NAM-12 HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT
FROM RUN TO RUN. WILL OPT TO LEAVE THE EVENING FORECAST UNCHANGED
AND ALLOW THE NEXT SHIFT TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING AND POPS.

MOIST WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT IT WILL BE DRY FOR MOST THE AREA. MOST
AREAS WILL GET SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL WARM UP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE COAST/STRAIT.
UPPER HEIGHTS RISE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGHS NUDGES
NWD. THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY COULD REACH CLOSE TO 80...ABOUT 15
DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY`S CHILLY HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
STRENGTHENING A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WRN U.S.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT APPEARS THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SW FLOW
ALOFT OVER WA. THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN FAVORS LIGHT W-NW SURFACE
GRADIENTS WHICH MAY BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE COAST BUT PROBABLY NOT
MAKING MUCH PROGRESS INLAND. GFS MOS GIVES LOW TO MID 80S SUNDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND FURTHER
WEST WITH THE RIDGE WHICH COULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
90 DEGREES. EITHER WAY IT WILL BE A BIG CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WITH
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WASHINGTON COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO EASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS
MORNING. LIGHT FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE AIR MASS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AND MOIST
THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
INLAND. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING TO
MVFR LEVELS WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN AREAS WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MESOSCALE MODELS SHOWING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PSCZ OVER THE CENTRAL SOUND LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOWING PSCZ FORMING
OVER THE CENTRAL SOUND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH
SOME CHANCE THAT IT WILL AFFECT THE METRO TERMINALS. SOUTH WINDS 8
TO 10 KT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST BY MIDDAY.

&&

.MARINE...THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ONSHORE THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN
AND CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND. MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS WILL EASE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH THE STRAIT WILL STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING
15-25 KT WESTERLIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT THROUGH
TONIGHT. SIMILARLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL AFFECT
THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

A MORE TYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES IN THE STRAIT AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS...CENTRAL AND EAST
     STRAIT...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KPQR 240938
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
237 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THAT WAS OVER WESTERN WA EARLY
THU MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY E TODAY. AFTER THE LOW DEPARTS...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR PICTURES SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN WA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A VORT MAX WRAPPING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE LOW PUSHING INTO NW OREGON. MOST OF THE REMAINING RAIN
SHOWERS WERE AHEAD OF THE VORT LOBE OVER NW OREGON AND SW WA. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS LINGERING TODAY IN THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW TODAY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
SHOWERS TO DECREASE QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW ACCELERATES
EASTWARD. TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY...WITH
MODELS GENERALLY SHOWING MODEST WARMING AT H8 TO AROUND 8 DEG C BY
00Z FRI.

A MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL PATTERN RETURNS TONIGHT AND IN
GENERAL REMAINS THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRES OFFSHORE TURNS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACK TO THE NW...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW GOES FROM W
TONIGHT TO SW BY SAT WITH SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS IN RESPONSE TO A
SLOWLY STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE OFF TO THE E. MARINE CLOUDS WILL
TEND TOWARDS A PATTERN OF RETREATING TO THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS
FRI AND SAT...AND LOCALLY PUSHING INLAND ESP UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE
DRY WEATHER DEPICTED BY THE MODELS IS SOME LIGHT QPF SEEN IN NAM AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI. THIS APPEARS
TO COME FROM SOME WEAK OOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT DEPICTED ALONG THE 290K
ISENTROPE IN THE MARINE LAYER OF THOSE MODELS 12Z FRI MORNING.
ALTHOUGH WEAK LOOKING...SINCE BOTH NAM AND GFS INDICATE THIS...WILL
ADD CHANCE FOR SOME DRIZZLE BUT WITH JUST 10 PERCENT POPS FOR THE
FAR N PART OF THE COAST FRI MORNING. WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
SHALLOWER MARINE INFLUENCE...WILL SEE DAYTIME TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL BY SAT.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST TO COME ONSHORE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIME THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THE LOCATION OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION.THE WAVE IS UNRESOLVED IN THE MEAN 500-MB HEIGHT
FIELD FROM GEFS AND NAEFS...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE IT MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN AMPLITUDE AND WESTWARD AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MID-WEEK.  SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES INLAND
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS THE REGION...BUT MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
WITH POCKETS OF MVFR INLAND N OF A KMMV TO KPDX LINE...THOUGH
WORST CONDITIONS OVER INLAND SW WASHINGTON. SEVERAL BANDS OF
SHOWERS ROTATING INLAND N OF A KONP TO KSLE LINE. THESE SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE AFT 13Z OR 14Z. BY 19Z...WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH INCREASING BREAKS BETWEEN CLOUDS AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS.
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD CLEARING AFTER 03Z AS AIR MASS STABILIZES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH SHOWERS
THROUGH 15Z. CIGS WILL OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO 2500 FT DURING THAT
TIME. CLOUDS BREAKING UP SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 20Z.     ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...LOW PRES CONTINUES TO WORK INLAND OVER W WASHINGTON.
THIS MAINTAINING GUSTY S TO SW WINDS ON THE COASTAL WATERS N OF
CASCADE HEAD...WITH GUSTS 25 KT THROUGH 9 AM. AS THE LOW MOVES
FURTHER INLAND...WINDS WILL EASE AND TURN MORE WESTERLY LATER THIS
AM INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

SEAS GENERALLY 7 TO 9 FT ON THE WATERS N OF CASCADE HEAD THIS
AM...WITH SEAS 5 TO 7 FT TO THE S. PERIODS STILL SHORT...GENERALLY
AROUND 8 SEC. SO WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STEEP
CHOPPY SEAS ON WATERS BETWEEN CAPE SHOALWATER AND CASCADE HEAD
UNTIL 9 AM. LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE...WITH 4
TO 5 FT BY LATE EVENING ON MOST WATERS.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD OVER NE PAC TONIGHT AND FRI...WITH
THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDING OVER NW CALIF. THIS WILL BRING A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...AND
POTENTIALLY STEEP SEAS...ESPECIALLY S OF NEWPORT.   ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS THIS MORNING ON ALL
         COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM TODAY
         ON COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
         UNTIL 6 AM TODAY.
&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 240938
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
237 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THAT WAS OVER WESTERN WA EARLY
THU MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY E TODAY. AFTER THE LOW DEPARTS...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR PICTURES SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN WA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A VORT MAX WRAPPING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE LOW PUSHING INTO NW OREGON. MOST OF THE REMAINING RAIN
SHOWERS WERE AHEAD OF THE VORT LOBE OVER NW OREGON AND SW WA. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS LINGERING TODAY IN THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW TODAY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
SHOWERS TO DECREASE QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW ACCELERATES
EASTWARD. TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY...WITH
MODELS GENERALLY SHOWING MODEST WARMING AT H8 TO AROUND 8 DEG C BY
00Z FRI.

A MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL PATTERN RETURNS TONIGHT AND IN
GENERAL REMAINS THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRES OFFSHORE TURNS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACK TO THE NW...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW GOES FROM W
TONIGHT TO SW BY SAT WITH SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS IN RESPONSE TO A
SLOWLY STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE OFF TO THE E. MARINE CLOUDS WILL
TEND TOWARDS A PATTERN OF RETREATING TO THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS
FRI AND SAT...AND LOCALLY PUSHING INLAND ESP UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE
DRY WEATHER DEPICTED BY THE MODELS IS SOME LIGHT QPF SEEN IN NAM AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI. THIS APPEARS
TO COME FROM SOME WEAK OOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT DEPICTED ALONG THE 290K
ISENTROPE IN THE MARINE LAYER OF THOSE MODELS 12Z FRI MORNING.
ALTHOUGH WEAK LOOKING...SINCE BOTH NAM AND GFS INDICATE THIS...WILL
ADD CHANCE FOR SOME DRIZZLE BUT WITH JUST 10 PERCENT POPS FOR THE
FAR N PART OF THE COAST FRI MORNING. WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
SHALLOWER MARINE INFLUENCE...WILL SEE DAYTIME TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL BY SAT.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST TO COME ONSHORE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIME THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THE LOCATION OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION.THE WAVE IS UNRESOLVED IN THE MEAN 500-MB HEIGHT
FIELD FROM GEFS AND NAEFS...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE IT MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN AMPLITUDE AND WESTWARD AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MID-WEEK.  SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES INLAND
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS THE REGION...BUT MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
WITH POCKETS OF MVFR INLAND N OF A KMMV TO KPDX LINE...THOUGH
WORST CONDITIONS OVER INLAND SW WASHINGTON. SEVERAL BANDS OF
SHOWERS ROTATING INLAND N OF A KONP TO KSLE LINE. THESE SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE AFT 13Z OR 14Z. BY 19Z...WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH INCREASING BREAKS BETWEEN CLOUDS AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS.
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD CLEARING AFTER 03Z AS AIR MASS STABILIZES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH SHOWERS
THROUGH 15Z. CIGS WILL OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO 2500 FT DURING THAT
TIME. CLOUDS BREAKING UP SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 20Z.     ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...LOW PRES CONTINUES TO WORK INLAND OVER W WASHINGTON.
THIS MAINTAINING GUSTY S TO SW WINDS ON THE COASTAL WATERS N OF
CASCADE HEAD...WITH GUSTS 25 KT THROUGH 9 AM. AS THE LOW MOVES
FURTHER INLAND...WINDS WILL EASE AND TURN MORE WESTERLY LATER THIS
AM INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

SEAS GENERALLY 7 TO 9 FT ON THE WATERS N OF CASCADE HEAD THIS
AM...WITH SEAS 5 TO 7 FT TO THE S. PERIODS STILL SHORT...GENERALLY
AROUND 8 SEC. SO WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STEEP
CHOPPY SEAS ON WATERS BETWEEN CAPE SHOALWATER AND CASCADE HEAD
UNTIL 9 AM. LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE...WITH 4
TO 5 FT BY LATE EVENING ON MOST WATERS.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD OVER NE PAC TONIGHT AND FRI...WITH
THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDING OVER NW CALIF. THIS WILL BRING A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...AND
POTENTIALLY STEEP SEAS...ESPECIALLY S OF NEWPORT.   ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS THIS MORNING ON ALL
         COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM TODAY
         ON COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
         UNTIL 6 AM TODAY.
&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 240938
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
237 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THAT WAS OVER WESTERN WA EARLY
THU MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY E TODAY. AFTER THE LOW DEPARTS...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR PICTURES SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN WA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A VORT MAX WRAPPING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE LOW PUSHING INTO NW OREGON. MOST OF THE REMAINING RAIN
SHOWERS WERE AHEAD OF THE VORT LOBE OVER NW OREGON AND SW WA. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS LINGERING TODAY IN THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW TODAY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
SHOWERS TO DECREASE QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW ACCELERATES
EASTWARD. TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY...WITH
MODELS GENERALLY SHOWING MODEST WARMING AT H8 TO AROUND 8 DEG C BY
00Z FRI.

A MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL PATTERN RETURNS TONIGHT AND IN
GENERAL REMAINS THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRES OFFSHORE TURNS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACK TO THE NW...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW GOES FROM W
TONIGHT TO SW BY SAT WITH SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS IN RESPONSE TO A
SLOWLY STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE OFF TO THE E. MARINE CLOUDS WILL
TEND TOWARDS A PATTERN OF RETREATING TO THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS
FRI AND SAT...AND LOCALLY PUSHING INLAND ESP UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE
DRY WEATHER DEPICTED BY THE MODELS IS SOME LIGHT QPF SEEN IN NAM AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI. THIS APPEARS
TO COME FROM SOME WEAK OOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT DEPICTED ALONG THE 290K
ISENTROPE IN THE MARINE LAYER OF THOSE MODELS 12Z FRI MORNING.
ALTHOUGH WEAK LOOKING...SINCE BOTH NAM AND GFS INDICATE THIS...WILL
ADD CHANCE FOR SOME DRIZZLE BUT WITH JUST 10 PERCENT POPS FOR THE
FAR N PART OF THE COAST FRI MORNING. WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
SHALLOWER MARINE INFLUENCE...WILL SEE DAYTIME TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL BY SAT.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST TO COME ONSHORE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIME THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THE LOCATION OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION.THE WAVE IS UNRESOLVED IN THE MEAN 500-MB HEIGHT
FIELD FROM GEFS AND NAEFS...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE IT MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN AMPLITUDE AND WESTWARD AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MID-WEEK.  SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES INLAND
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS THE REGION...BUT MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
WITH POCKETS OF MVFR INLAND N OF A KMMV TO KPDX LINE...THOUGH
WORST CONDITIONS OVER INLAND SW WASHINGTON. SEVERAL BANDS OF
SHOWERS ROTATING INLAND N OF A KONP TO KSLE LINE. THESE SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE AFT 13Z OR 14Z. BY 19Z...WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH INCREASING BREAKS BETWEEN CLOUDS AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS.
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD CLEARING AFTER 03Z AS AIR MASS STABILIZES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH SHOWERS
THROUGH 15Z. CIGS WILL OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO 2500 FT DURING THAT
TIME. CLOUDS BREAKING UP SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 20Z.     ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...LOW PRES CONTINUES TO WORK INLAND OVER W WASHINGTON.
THIS MAINTAINING GUSTY S TO SW WINDS ON THE COASTAL WATERS N OF
CASCADE HEAD...WITH GUSTS 25 KT THROUGH 9 AM. AS THE LOW MOVES
FURTHER INLAND...WINDS WILL EASE AND TURN MORE WESTERLY LATER THIS
AM INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

SEAS GENERALLY 7 TO 9 FT ON THE WATERS N OF CASCADE HEAD THIS
AM...WITH SEAS 5 TO 7 FT TO THE S. PERIODS STILL SHORT...GENERALLY
AROUND 8 SEC. SO WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STEEP
CHOPPY SEAS ON WATERS BETWEEN CAPE SHOALWATER AND CASCADE HEAD
UNTIL 9 AM. LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE...WITH 4
TO 5 FT BY LATE EVENING ON MOST WATERS.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD OVER NE PAC TONIGHT AND FRI...WITH
THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDING OVER NW CALIF. THIS WILL BRING A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...AND
POTENTIALLY STEEP SEAS...ESPECIALLY S OF NEWPORT.   ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS THIS MORNING ON ALL
         COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM TODAY
         ON COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
         UNTIL 6 AM TODAY.
&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 240938
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
237 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THAT WAS OVER WESTERN WA EARLY
THU MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY E TODAY. AFTER THE LOW DEPARTS...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR PICTURES SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN WA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A VORT MAX WRAPPING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE LOW PUSHING INTO NW OREGON. MOST OF THE REMAINING RAIN
SHOWERS WERE AHEAD OF THE VORT LOBE OVER NW OREGON AND SW WA. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS LINGERING TODAY IN THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW TODAY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
SHOWERS TO DECREASE QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW ACCELERATES
EASTWARD. TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY...WITH
MODELS GENERALLY SHOWING MODEST WARMING AT H8 TO AROUND 8 DEG C BY
00Z FRI.

A MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL PATTERN RETURNS TONIGHT AND IN
GENERAL REMAINS THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRES OFFSHORE TURNS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACK TO THE NW...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW GOES FROM W
TONIGHT TO SW BY SAT WITH SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS IN RESPONSE TO A
SLOWLY STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE OFF TO THE E. MARINE CLOUDS WILL
TEND TOWARDS A PATTERN OF RETREATING TO THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS
FRI AND SAT...AND LOCALLY PUSHING INLAND ESP UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE
DRY WEATHER DEPICTED BY THE MODELS IS SOME LIGHT QPF SEEN IN NAM AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI. THIS APPEARS
TO COME FROM SOME WEAK OOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT DEPICTED ALONG THE 290K
ISENTROPE IN THE MARINE LAYER OF THOSE MODELS 12Z FRI MORNING.
ALTHOUGH WEAK LOOKING...SINCE BOTH NAM AND GFS INDICATE THIS...WILL
ADD CHANCE FOR SOME DRIZZLE BUT WITH JUST 10 PERCENT POPS FOR THE
FAR N PART OF THE COAST FRI MORNING. WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
SHALLOWER MARINE INFLUENCE...WILL SEE DAYTIME TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL BY SAT.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST TO COME ONSHORE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIME THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THE LOCATION OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION.THE WAVE IS UNRESOLVED IN THE MEAN 500-MB HEIGHT
FIELD FROM GEFS AND NAEFS...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE IT MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN AMPLITUDE AND WESTWARD AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MID-WEEK.  SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES INLAND
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS THE REGION...BUT MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
WITH POCKETS OF MVFR INLAND N OF A KMMV TO KPDX LINE...THOUGH
WORST CONDITIONS OVER INLAND SW WASHINGTON. SEVERAL BANDS OF
SHOWERS ROTATING INLAND N OF A KONP TO KSLE LINE. THESE SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE AFT 13Z OR 14Z. BY 19Z...WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH INCREASING BREAKS BETWEEN CLOUDS AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS.
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD CLEARING AFTER 03Z AS AIR MASS STABILIZES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH SHOWERS
THROUGH 15Z. CIGS WILL OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO 2500 FT DURING THAT
TIME. CLOUDS BREAKING UP SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 20Z.     ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...LOW PRES CONTINUES TO WORK INLAND OVER W WASHINGTON.
THIS MAINTAINING GUSTY S TO SW WINDS ON THE COASTAL WATERS N OF
CASCADE HEAD...WITH GUSTS 25 KT THROUGH 9 AM. AS THE LOW MOVES
FURTHER INLAND...WINDS WILL EASE AND TURN MORE WESTERLY LATER THIS
AM INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

SEAS GENERALLY 7 TO 9 FT ON THE WATERS N OF CASCADE HEAD THIS
AM...WITH SEAS 5 TO 7 FT TO THE S. PERIODS STILL SHORT...GENERALLY
AROUND 8 SEC. SO WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STEEP
CHOPPY SEAS ON WATERS BETWEEN CAPE SHOALWATER AND CASCADE HEAD
UNTIL 9 AM. LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE...WITH 4
TO 5 FT BY LATE EVENING ON MOST WATERS.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD OVER NE PAC TONIGHT AND FRI...WITH
THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDING OVER NW CALIF. THIS WILL BRING A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...AND
POTENTIALLY STEEP SEAS...ESPECIALLY S OF NEWPORT.   ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS THIS MORNING ON ALL
         COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM TODAY
         ON COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
         UNTIL 6 AM TODAY.
&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 240938
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
237 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THAT WAS OVER WESTERN WA EARLY
THU MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY E TODAY. AFTER THE LOW DEPARTS...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR PICTURES SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN WA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A VORT MAX WRAPPING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE LOW PUSHING INTO NW OREGON. MOST OF THE REMAINING RAIN
SHOWERS WERE AHEAD OF THE VORT LOBE OVER NW OREGON AND SW WA. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS LINGERING TODAY IN THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW TODAY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
SHOWERS TO DECREASE QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW ACCELERATES
EASTWARD. TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY...WITH
MODELS GENERALLY SHOWING MODEST WARMING AT H8 TO AROUND 8 DEG C BY
00Z FRI.

A MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL PATTERN RETURNS TONIGHT AND IN
GENERAL REMAINS THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRES OFFSHORE TURNS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACK TO THE NW...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW GOES FROM W
TONIGHT TO SW BY SAT WITH SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS IN RESPONSE TO A
SLOWLY STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE OFF TO THE E. MARINE CLOUDS WILL
TEND TOWARDS A PATTERN OF RETREATING TO THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS
FRI AND SAT...AND LOCALLY PUSHING INLAND ESP UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE
DRY WEATHER DEPICTED BY THE MODELS IS SOME LIGHT QPF SEEN IN NAM AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI. THIS APPEARS
TO COME FROM SOME WEAK OOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT DEPICTED ALONG THE 290K
ISENTROPE IN THE MARINE LAYER OF THOSE MODELS 12Z FRI MORNING.
ALTHOUGH WEAK LOOKING...SINCE BOTH NAM AND GFS INDICATE THIS...WILL
ADD CHANCE FOR SOME DRIZZLE BUT WITH JUST 10 PERCENT POPS FOR THE
FAR N PART OF THE COAST FRI MORNING. WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
SHALLOWER MARINE INFLUENCE...WILL SEE DAYTIME TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL BY SAT.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST TO COME ONSHORE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIME THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THE LOCATION OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION.THE WAVE IS UNRESOLVED IN THE MEAN 500-MB HEIGHT
FIELD FROM GEFS AND NAEFS...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE IT MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN AMPLITUDE AND WESTWARD AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MID-WEEK.  SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES INLAND
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS THE REGION...BUT MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
WITH POCKETS OF MVFR INLAND N OF A KMMV TO KPDX LINE...THOUGH
WORST CONDITIONS OVER INLAND SW WASHINGTON. SEVERAL BANDS OF
SHOWERS ROTATING INLAND N OF A KONP TO KSLE LINE. THESE SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE AFT 13Z OR 14Z. BY 19Z...WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH INCREASING BREAKS BETWEEN CLOUDS AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS.
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD CLEARING AFTER 03Z AS AIR MASS STABILIZES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH SHOWERS
THROUGH 15Z. CIGS WILL OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO 2500 FT DURING THAT
TIME. CLOUDS BREAKING UP SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 20Z.     ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...LOW PRES CONTINUES TO WORK INLAND OVER W WASHINGTON.
THIS MAINTAINING GUSTY S TO SW WINDS ON THE COASTAL WATERS N OF
CASCADE HEAD...WITH GUSTS 25 KT THROUGH 9 AM. AS THE LOW MOVES
FURTHER INLAND...WINDS WILL EASE AND TURN MORE WESTERLY LATER THIS
AM INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

SEAS GENERALLY 7 TO 9 FT ON THE WATERS N OF CASCADE HEAD THIS
AM...WITH SEAS 5 TO 7 FT TO THE S. PERIODS STILL SHORT...GENERALLY
AROUND 8 SEC. SO WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STEEP
CHOPPY SEAS ON WATERS BETWEEN CAPE SHOALWATER AND CASCADE HEAD
UNTIL 9 AM. LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE...WITH 4
TO 5 FT BY LATE EVENING ON MOST WATERS.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD OVER NE PAC TONIGHT AND FRI...WITH
THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDING OVER NW CALIF. THIS WILL BRING A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...AND
POTENTIALLY STEEP SEAS...ESPECIALLY S OF NEWPORT.   ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS THIS MORNING ON ALL
         COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM TODAY
         ON COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
         UNTIL 6 AM TODAY.
&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 240915
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
215 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...Lingering showers and a few minor thunderstorms will
continue for the northern mountains today as a cold front exits
the region. Cool and breezy weather is expected today behind the
cold front. Temperatures will rebound by the weekend and be
accompanied by dry conditions. Hot weather will return to the area
on Sunday and early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday: The Inland Northwest will find waning
shower chances, breezy conditions and cool temperatures. Over the
next 24-hours an upper low centered over north Washington tracks
toward the Canadian Prairies. The low, and a weakening deformation
axis wrapped around it, will provide continued shower chances
across the Cascades and northern mountains. Some showers may also
impact the Highway 2 and I-90 corridor, from the Waterville
Plateau into the central Panhandle. However as the low continues
to shift northeast and drier air and large-scale subsidence moves
in behind it, shower chances will begin retreat toward the Cascade
crest and shift further into the northeast Washington and northern
Panhandle mountains and dissipate this afternoon and evening. With
a lack of significant instability, the threat of thunder will be
minimal. A modest pressure gradient and good mixing this afternoon
with the strong subsidence will produce breezy conditions through
the day. Gusts between 25 and 35 mph will be common from Chelan
county east through the Spokane area and Palouse. Winds are
expected to abate through the evening, particularly past 8 pm or
so. As for temperatures, readings will be below normal. Regional
850mb temperatures under the low range from the upper single
digits in the Cascades to the lower teens toward the Panhandle.
This supports high temperatures some 10-15 degree below average.
This means many areas, outside of the deeper Columbia Basin and
L-C Valley, will only see highs in the upper 60s to mid-70s.
Tonight and Friday the region transitions to a more zonal flow. A
secondary mid-level disturbance slips onshore overnight into
Friday morning, but the brunt of the lift remains north of the
Canadian border. So look for dry weather and a few clouds. Winds
will be pick up again in the afternoon as the gradients tighten
again slightly with the northern wave and increased mixing, but
speeds will be relatively lower. A few gusts between 15 to 20 mph
will be possible in the afternoon. Temperatures will remain on the
cool side of average, but overall values look about 5 degrees
milder as compared to Thursday. /J. Cote`

Friday night through Wednesday...Latest medium range GFS and ECMWF
guidance is in remarkably good agreement in depicting a return to
torrid dog-day summer conditions through the extended period. A
strong 4 corners upper high will build into the region...becoming
progressively stronger each day through Monday before stabilizing.
this will allow the establishment of a strong low level thermal
trough over the Columbia Basin which will promote hot days and
sultry overnights through Wednesday. On or about Monday a shot of
monsoonal moisture may side-swipe the southeastern zones and Idaho
Panhandle with a small threat of thunderstorms...but this is a low
confidence forecast at this point. Confidence is high that the
forecast area will return to a dry and sunny above normal/hot
stretch of summer weather this weekend through the middle of next
week. /Fugazzi


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Unstable post frontal air mass will foster scattered
showers across the region with isolated thunderstorms possible
across the mountains of northern WA and north Idaho tonight and
into Thursday. Gusty winds will diminish somewhat overnight. If
winds become light, MVFR cigs are possible at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE
generally between 10z-14Z. Lower confidence in lowering cigs for
KPUW/KEAT. Expect dry conditions and winds 12 kts or less after
03Z Friday. /EK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        70  50  76  54  84  59 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  67  49  74  48  82  54 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Pullman        69  46  75  44  83  50 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       78  55  83  55  91  61 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       70  49  78  48  87  53 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      65  47  72  47  81  50 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        64  49  72  49  81  56 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     76  54  83  53  89  60 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      73  57  82  60  87  65 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           74  52  82  53  88  58 /  20  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 240915
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
215 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...Lingering showers and a few minor thunderstorms will
continue for the northern mountains today as a cold front exits
the region. Cool and breezy weather is expected today behind the
cold front. Temperatures will rebound by the weekend and be
accompanied by dry conditions. Hot weather will return to the area
on Sunday and early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday: The Inland Northwest will find waning
shower chances, breezy conditions and cool temperatures. Over the
next 24-hours an upper low centered over north Washington tracks
toward the Canadian Prairies. The low, and a weakening deformation
axis wrapped around it, will provide continued shower chances
across the Cascades and northern mountains. Some showers may also
impact the Highway 2 and I-90 corridor, from the Waterville
Plateau into the central Panhandle. However as the low continues
to shift northeast and drier air and large-scale subsidence moves
in behind it, shower chances will begin retreat toward the Cascade
crest and shift further into the northeast Washington and northern
Panhandle mountains and dissipate this afternoon and evening. With
a lack of significant instability, the threat of thunder will be
minimal. A modest pressure gradient and good mixing this afternoon
with the strong subsidence will produce breezy conditions through
the day. Gusts between 25 and 35 mph will be common from Chelan
county east through the Spokane area and Palouse. Winds are
expected to abate through the evening, particularly past 8 pm or
so. As for temperatures, readings will be below normal. Regional
850mb temperatures under the low range from the upper single
digits in the Cascades to the lower teens toward the Panhandle.
This supports high temperatures some 10-15 degree below average.
This means many areas, outside of the deeper Columbia Basin and
L-C Valley, will only see highs in the upper 60s to mid-70s.
Tonight and Friday the region transitions to a more zonal flow. A
secondary mid-level disturbance slips onshore overnight into
Friday morning, but the brunt of the lift remains north of the
Canadian border. So look for dry weather and a few clouds. Winds
will be pick up again in the afternoon as the gradients tighten
again slightly with the northern wave and increased mixing, but
speeds will be relatively lower. A few gusts between 15 to 20 mph
will be possible in the afternoon. Temperatures will remain on the
cool side of average, but overall values look about 5 degrees
milder as compared to Thursday. /J. Cote`

Friday night through Wednesday...Latest medium range GFS and ECMWF
guidance is in remarkably good agreement in depicting a return to
torrid dog-day summer conditions through the extended period. A
strong 4 corners upper high will build into the region...becoming
progressively stronger each day through Monday before stabilizing.
this will allow the establishment of a strong low level thermal
trough over the Columbia Basin which will promote hot days and
sultry overnights through Wednesday. On or about Monday a shot of
monsoonal moisture may side-swipe the southeastern zones and Idaho
Panhandle with a small threat of thunderstorms...but this is a low
confidence forecast at this point. Confidence is high that the
forecast area will return to a dry and sunny above normal/hot
stretch of summer weather this weekend through the middle of next
week. /Fugazzi


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Unstable post frontal air mass will foster scattered
showers across the region with isolated thunderstorms possible
across the mountains of northern WA and north Idaho tonight and
into Thursday. Gusty winds will diminish somewhat overnight. If
winds become light, MVFR cigs are possible at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE
generally between 10z-14Z. Lower confidence in lowering cigs for
KPUW/KEAT. Expect dry conditions and winds 12 kts or less after
03Z Friday. /EK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        70  50  76  54  84  59 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  67  49  74  48  82  54 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Pullman        69  46  75  44  83  50 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       78  55  83  55  91  61 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       70  49  78  48  87  53 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      65  47  72  47  81  50 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        64  49  72  49  81  56 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     76  54  83  53  89  60 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      73  57  82  60  87  65 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           74  52  82  53  88  58 /  20  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 240528
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1028 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue for the northern mountains tonight as a cold front exits
the region. Cool and windy weather is expected tonight behind the
cold front. Temperatures will rebound by the weekend and be
accompanied by dry conditions. Hot weather will return to the area
on Sunday and early next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Removed thunderstorms for this evening for the lower elevations
but left slight chance in for the higher terrain surrounding the
basin. Conditions have stabilized now that the convective storms
have moved off to the northeast. More showers are on the way as
the upper level cold pool slides overhead tonight but quiet
weather is expected for the next couple of hours. Winds are
beginning to pick up and will remain gusty tonight. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Unstable post frontal air mass will foster scattered
showers across the region with isolated thunderstorms possible
across the mountains of northern WA and north Idaho tonight and
into Thursday. Gusty winds will diminish somewhat overnight. If
winds become light, MVFR cigs are possible at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE
generally between 10z-14Z. Lower confidence in lowering cigs for
KPUW/KEAT. Expect dry conditions and winds 12 kts or less after
03Z Friday. /EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  71  50  76  54  84 /  30  20  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  53  67  49  75  48  82 /  40  30  10   0   0   0
Pullman        49  69  45  75  44  83 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       57  78  54  83  55  91 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       53  71  50  79  48  87 /  50  30  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      54  66  48  73  47  81 /  60  40  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        52  65  49  73  49  81 /  50  30  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     56  75  53  83  53  89 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      57  73  56  82  60  87 /  50  20   0   0   0   0
Omak           54  74  52  82  53  88 /  50  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 240528
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1028 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue for the northern mountains tonight as a cold front exits
the region. Cool and windy weather is expected tonight behind the
cold front. Temperatures will rebound by the weekend and be
accompanied by dry conditions. Hot weather will return to the area
on Sunday and early next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Removed thunderstorms for this evening for the lower elevations
but left slight chance in for the higher terrain surrounding the
basin. Conditions have stabilized now that the convective storms
have moved off to the northeast. More showers are on the way as
the upper level cold pool slides overhead tonight but quiet
weather is expected for the next couple of hours. Winds are
beginning to pick up and will remain gusty tonight. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Unstable post frontal air mass will foster scattered
showers across the region with isolated thunderstorms possible
across the mountains of northern WA and north Idaho tonight and
into Thursday. Gusty winds will diminish somewhat overnight. If
winds become light, MVFR cigs are possible at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE
generally between 10z-14Z. Lower confidence in lowering cigs for
KPUW/KEAT. Expect dry conditions and winds 12 kts or less after
03Z Friday. /EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  71  50  76  54  84 /  30  20  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  53  67  49  75  48  82 /  40  30  10   0   0   0
Pullman        49  69  45  75  44  83 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       57  78  54  83  55  91 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       53  71  50  79  48  87 /  50  30  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      54  66  48  73  47  81 /  60  40  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        52  65  49  73  49  81 /  50  30  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     56  75  53  83  53  89 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      57  73  56  82  60  87 /  50  20   0   0   0   0
Omak           54  74  52  82  53  88 /  50  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 240528
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1028 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue for the northern mountains tonight as a cold front exits
the region. Cool and windy weather is expected tonight behind the
cold front. Temperatures will rebound by the weekend and be
accompanied by dry conditions. Hot weather will return to the area
on Sunday and early next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Removed thunderstorms for this evening for the lower elevations
but left slight chance in for the higher terrain surrounding the
basin. Conditions have stabilized now that the convective storms
have moved off to the northeast. More showers are on the way as
the upper level cold pool slides overhead tonight but quiet
weather is expected for the next couple of hours. Winds are
beginning to pick up and will remain gusty tonight. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Unstable post frontal air mass will foster scattered
showers across the region with isolated thunderstorms possible
across the mountains of northern WA and north Idaho tonight and
into Thursday. Gusty winds will diminish somewhat overnight. If
winds become light, MVFR cigs are possible at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE
generally between 10z-14Z. Lower confidence in lowering cigs for
KPUW/KEAT. Expect dry conditions and winds 12 kts or less after
03Z Friday. /EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  71  50  76  54  84 /  30  20  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  53  67  49  75  48  82 /  40  30  10   0   0   0
Pullman        49  69  45  75  44  83 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       57  78  54  83  55  91 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       53  71  50  79  48  87 /  50  30  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      54  66  48  73  47  81 /  60  40  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        52  65  49  73  49  81 /  50  30  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     56  75  53  83  53  89 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      57  73  56  82  60  87 /  50  20   0   0   0   0
Omak           54  74  52  82  53  88 /  50  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 240528
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1028 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue for the northern mountains tonight as a cold front exits
the region. Cool and windy weather is expected tonight behind the
cold front. Temperatures will rebound by the weekend and be
accompanied by dry conditions. Hot weather will return to the area
on Sunday and early next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Removed thunderstorms for this evening for the lower elevations
but left slight chance in for the higher terrain surrounding the
basin. Conditions have stabilized now that the convective storms
have moved off to the northeast. More showers are on the way as
the upper level cold pool slides overhead tonight but quiet
weather is expected for the next couple of hours. Winds are
beginning to pick up and will remain gusty tonight. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Unstable post frontal air mass will foster scattered
showers across the region with isolated thunderstorms possible
across the mountains of northern WA and north Idaho tonight and
into Thursday. Gusty winds will diminish somewhat overnight. If
winds become light, MVFR cigs are possible at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE
generally between 10z-14Z. Lower confidence in lowering cigs for
KPUW/KEAT. Expect dry conditions and winds 12 kts or less after
03Z Friday. /EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  71  50  76  54  84 /  30  20  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  53  67  49  75  48  82 /  40  30  10   0   0   0
Pullman        49  69  45  75  44  83 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       57  78  54  83  55  91 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       53  71  50  79  48  87 /  50  30  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      54  66  48  73  47  81 /  60  40  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        52  65  49  73  49  81 /  50  30  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     56  75  53  83  53  89 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      57  73  56  82  60  87 /  50  20   0   0   0   0
Omak           54  74  52  82  53  88 /  50  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 240402
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
902 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue for the northern mountains tonight as a cold front exits
the region. Cool and windy weather is expected tonight behind the
cold front. Temperatures will rebound by the weekend and be
accompanied by dry conditions. Hot weather will return to the area
on Sunday and early next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Removed thunderstorms for this evening for the lower elevations
but left slight chance in for the higher terrain surrounding the
basin. Conditions have stabilized now that the convective storms
have moved off to the northeast. More showers are on the way as
the upper level cold pool slides overhead tonight but quiet
weather is expected for the next couple of hours. Winds are
beginning to pick up and will remain gusty tonight. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: COLD AIR FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE GUSTY
WINDS TO 35 MPH WITH REDUCTION IN STORM ACTIVITY FROM SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON TO NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AFTER 03Z.
EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY BUT ALL TAF SITES WILL
ESSENTIALLY BE EXPERIENCING A DRYING PERIOD AND BREEZY WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 MPH INTO 00Z FRIDAY. TC



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  71  50  76  54  84 /  30  20  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  53  67  49  75  48  82 /  40  30  10   0   0   0
Pullman        49  69  45  75  44  83 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       57  78  54  83  55  91 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       53  71  50  79  48  87 /  50  30  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      54  66  48  73  47  81 /  60  40  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        52  65  49  73  49  81 /  50  30  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     56  75  53  83  53  89 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      57  73  56  82  60  87 /  50  20   0   0   0   0
Omak           54  74  52  82  53  88 /  50  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 240402
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
902 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue for the northern mountains tonight as a cold front exits
the region. Cool and windy weather is expected tonight behind the
cold front. Temperatures will rebound by the weekend and be
accompanied by dry conditions. Hot weather will return to the area
on Sunday and early next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Removed thunderstorms for this evening for the lower elevations
but left slight chance in for the higher terrain surrounding the
basin. Conditions have stabilized now that the convective storms
have moved off to the northeast. More showers are on the way as
the upper level cold pool slides overhead tonight but quiet
weather is expected for the next couple of hours. Winds are
beginning to pick up and will remain gusty tonight. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: COLD AIR FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE GUSTY
WINDS TO 35 MPH WITH REDUCTION IN STORM ACTIVITY FROM SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON TO NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AFTER 03Z.
EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY BUT ALL TAF SITES WILL
ESSENTIALLY BE EXPERIENCING A DRYING PERIOD AND BREEZY WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 MPH INTO 00Z FRIDAY. TC



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  71  50  76  54  84 /  30  20  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  53  67  49  75  48  82 /  40  30  10   0   0   0
Pullman        49  69  45  75  44  83 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       57  78  54  83  55  91 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       53  71  50  79  48  87 /  50  30  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      54  66  48  73  47  81 /  60  40  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        52  65  49  73  49  81 /  50  30  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     56  75  53  83  53  89 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      57  73  56  82  60  87 /  50  20   0   0   0   0
Omak           54  74  52  82  53  88 /  50  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 240353
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
853 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  WILL
MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST OREGON TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ...PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THURSDAY...BEFORE
HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY...BRINGING DRYER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL UPPER LOW IS CENTERED AROUND 100
MILES OFFSHORE THE WASHINGTON/OREGON BORDER. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CENTER MOVING OVER THE SW WASHINGTON. THERE ARE
ALSO SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN BANDS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MOVING ACROSS
NW OREGON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND LIGHTNING. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...IN SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AN ISOLATED STORM
POPS UP ALONG THE NORTHER OREGON COAST OR COAST RANGE THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH INLAND ACROSS WASHINGTON STATE TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL END AROUND SUNSET
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE JUST A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE SW
WASHINGTON CASCADES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN
SOME WARMING THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALLEY TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

AN UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH INITIALLY QUITE FLAT...WILL SLOWLY START TO
MOVE IN FRIDAY FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER WITH SOME
MORNING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL FINALLY APPROACH 80
AGAIN INLAND. THE WARMING WILL CONTINUE IN EARNEST ON SATURDAY AS 500
MB HEIGHTS BUILD INTO AT LEAST THE MID 580S...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
PRETTY MUCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER SOME BRIEF MORNING
CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE NORTH. LOOK FOR INLAND HIGHS WELL UP IN THE 80S
SATURDAY...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 90 IN SOME AREAS. TJ/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST TO COME ONSHORE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIME THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THE LOCATION OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION.THE WAVE IS UNRESOLVED IN THE MEAN 500-MB HEIGHT
FIELD FROM GEFS AND NAEFS...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE IT MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN AMPLITUDE AND WESTWARD AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MID-WEEK.  SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES INLAND
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...A POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. A SECOND
ROUND OF MORE CONSOLIDATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO ARRIVE ON THE
COAST WILL LIKE ALLOW MVFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT AT
KAST. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THESE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPACT KONP AND PERHAPS THE PORTLAND METRO TAF SITES
CLOSER TO 12Z THURSDAY. ANY LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS THAT DO
DEVELOP SHOULD BECOME VFR TOWARDS 18Z TO 20Z THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...BKN TO OVC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO CLEAR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SPINNING
OFF WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL INCH ITS WAY CLOSER OVERNIGHT...AND
SPREAD ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO THE AREA. WITH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZING A BIT AND PERHAPS AN UPTICK IN RAIN SHOWERS...A PERIOD
OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN PRIMARILY 12Z AND 18Z
THURSDAY. /NEUMAN
&&

.MARINE...A BENT BACK OCCLUSION IS BRINGING SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT ACROSS
THE WATERS THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT BEFORE EASING BELOW 20 KT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY AFTER DAWN.

THESE WINDS ARE ALSO CREATING A FRESH SWELL THAT IS INCREASING
INTO THE 7 TO 9 FT RANGE...AND MAY EVEN BRIEFLY TOUCH 10 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. REGARDLESS...DOMINANT PERIODS WILL ALSO HOVER IN
THE 7 TO 9 SECOND RANGE...MEANING SEAS WILL BE ESPECIALLY STEEP
AND POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS. SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER THURSDAY
MORNING.

A ROUGH BAR FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WAS ALSO HOISTED FOR THE EBB LATE
TONIGHT. ANOTHER ONE MAY BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE BASED ON SEA TRENDS VS MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE SETUP TONIGHT IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO AN EVENT A
COUPLE WEEKS AGO THAT RESULTED IN A FISHING BOAT CAPSIZING ON THE
COLUMBIA RIVER BAR.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY STEEP SEAS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /NEUMAN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 AM TO
     6 AM PDT THURSDAY.
&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 240353
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
855 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT AS IT MOVES INLAND
FROM THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST INTO ALBERTA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY...BRINGING SUNNY WARMER WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW FROM EARLIER
TODAY HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE SOUTH
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE A MORE ORGANIZED BATCH OF SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE. THE THUNDER
THREAT THIS EVENING WILL PROBABLY BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND OVER THE CASCADES WHERE THERE WILL BE ADDED
LIFT AND THE AIR WILL BE MOST UNSTABLE. THERE COULD ALSO BE AN
INCREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR A FEW HOURS THURSDAY MORNING AS
THE LOW MOVES EAST AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AFFECTS THE AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INLAND LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SHOWERS
WILL TAPER AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND BECOME MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE CASCADES BY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL
BRING A DRYING AND WARMING TREND. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON CLIMBING TO AROUND 5880 METERS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND THERMALLY-INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES WILL MAINTAIN VERY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. SOME MODEL RUNS --
MAINLY OF THE GFS -- HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN WITH
A MARINE PUSH AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THE MOST RECENT RUNS
MAINTAIN THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH MIDWEEK. BOTTOM LINE IS THIS WILL
BE A STRETCH OF SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER.   MCDONNAL

&&

.CLIMATE...0.74 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN SO FAR TODAY AT SEATAC
WHICH IS A RECORD FOR THE DATE. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...THIS IS THE
FIFTH WETTEST JULY DAY AT SEATAC. THE ALL-TIME WETTEST DAY IN JULY
IS 0.85 INCHES SET ON JULY 13 1981. WITH MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE...
THIS RECORD COULD STILL FALL BEFORE MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT (1 AM PDT).
RECORDS AT SEATAC GO BACK TO 1945. THE ALL-TIME RECORD WETTEST JULY
DAY AT THE FEDERAL BUILDING IN DOWNTOWN SEATTLE IS 0.98 INCHES SET
ON JULY 5TH 1897. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND THIS EVENING AND LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO
EASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS
OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON REMAINS UNSTABLE AND MOIST...SUPPORTING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL BOOST TO THAT
INSTABILITY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INLAND LATER THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS
THROUGH THE AREA.

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INLAND AND THEN STRONG NORTHWEST LATE AS IT LIFTS TO
THE NORTHEAST. AT LOW LEVELS...DEVELOPING MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PERSIST AND STRENGTHEN THURSDAY. SOME RETURN FLOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
ON THURSDAY ESPECIALLY THE OVER NORTH WITH A GENERAL TREND TOWARDS
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...EXCEPT MVFR IN SHOWERS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THURSDAY
WITH AN IMPROVING TREND AFTER ABOUT 20Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 KT
GUSTING TO 20 KT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND. THE RESULTING MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS
PRODUCING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR ALL WATERS INCLUDING PUGET SOUND. EXPECT THE
ONSHORE FLOW TO STRENGTHEN THURSDAY WITH 20-30 KT WESTERLIES LIKELY
IN THE STRAIT.

A MORE TYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES IN THE STRAIT AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KSEW 240353
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
855 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT AS IT MOVES INLAND
FROM THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST INTO ALBERTA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY...BRINGING SUNNY WARMER WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW FROM EARLIER
TODAY HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE SOUTH
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE A MORE ORGANIZED BATCH OF SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE. THE THUNDER
THREAT THIS EVENING WILL PROBABLY BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND OVER THE CASCADES WHERE THERE WILL BE ADDED
LIFT AND THE AIR WILL BE MOST UNSTABLE. THERE COULD ALSO BE AN
INCREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR A FEW HOURS THURSDAY MORNING AS
THE LOW MOVES EAST AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AFFECTS THE AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INLAND LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SHOWERS
WILL TAPER AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND BECOME MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE CASCADES BY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL
BRING A DRYING AND WARMING TREND. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON CLIMBING TO AROUND 5880 METERS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND THERMALLY-INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES WILL MAINTAIN VERY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. SOME MODEL RUNS --
MAINLY OF THE GFS -- HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN WITH
A MARINE PUSH AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THE MOST RECENT RUNS
MAINTAIN THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH MIDWEEK. BOTTOM LINE IS THIS WILL
BE A STRETCH OF SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER.   MCDONNAL

&&

.CLIMATE...0.74 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN SO FAR TODAY AT SEATAC
WHICH IS A RECORD FOR THE DATE. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...THIS IS THE
FIFTH WETTEST JULY DAY AT SEATAC. THE ALL-TIME WETTEST DAY IN JULY
IS 0.85 INCHES SET ON JULY 13 1981. WITH MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE...
THIS RECORD COULD STILL FALL BEFORE MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT (1 AM PDT).
RECORDS AT SEATAC GO BACK TO 1945. THE ALL-TIME RECORD WETTEST JULY
DAY AT THE FEDERAL BUILDING IN DOWNTOWN SEATTLE IS 0.98 INCHES SET
ON JULY 5TH 1897. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND THIS EVENING AND LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO
EASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS
OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON REMAINS UNSTABLE AND MOIST...SUPPORTING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL BOOST TO THAT
INSTABILITY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INLAND LATER THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS
THROUGH THE AREA.

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INLAND AND THEN STRONG NORTHWEST LATE AS IT LIFTS TO
THE NORTHEAST. AT LOW LEVELS...DEVELOPING MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PERSIST AND STRENGTHEN THURSDAY. SOME RETURN FLOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
ON THURSDAY ESPECIALLY THE OVER NORTH WITH A GENERAL TREND TOWARDS
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...EXCEPT MVFR IN SHOWERS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THURSDAY
WITH AN IMPROVING TREND AFTER ABOUT 20Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 KT
GUSTING TO 20 KT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND. THE RESULTING MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS
PRODUCING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR ALL WATERS INCLUDING PUGET SOUND. EXPECT THE
ONSHORE FLOW TO STRENGTHEN THURSDAY WITH 20-30 KT WESTERLIES LIKELY
IN THE STRAIT.

A MORE TYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES IN THE STRAIT AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KPQR 240353
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
853 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  WILL
MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST OREGON TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ...PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THURSDAY...BEFORE
HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY...BRINGING DRYER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL UPPER LOW IS CENTERED AROUND 100
MILES OFFSHORE THE WASHINGTON/OREGON BORDER. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CENTER MOVING OVER THE SW WASHINGTON. THERE ARE
ALSO SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN BANDS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MOVING ACROSS
NW OREGON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND LIGHTNING. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...IN SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AN ISOLATED STORM
POPS UP ALONG THE NORTHER OREGON COAST OR COAST RANGE THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH INLAND ACROSS WASHINGTON STATE TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL END AROUND SUNSET
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE JUST A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE SW
WASHINGTON CASCADES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN
SOME WARMING THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALLEY TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

AN UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH INITIALLY QUITE FLAT...WILL SLOWLY START TO
MOVE IN FRIDAY FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER WITH SOME
MORNING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL FINALLY APPROACH 80
AGAIN INLAND. THE WARMING WILL CONTINUE IN EARNEST ON SATURDAY AS 500
MB HEIGHTS BUILD INTO AT LEAST THE MID 580S...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
PRETTY MUCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER SOME BRIEF MORNING
CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE NORTH. LOOK FOR INLAND HIGHS WELL UP IN THE 80S
SATURDAY...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 90 IN SOME AREAS. TJ/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST TO COME ONSHORE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIME THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THE LOCATION OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION.THE WAVE IS UNRESOLVED IN THE MEAN 500-MB HEIGHT
FIELD FROM GEFS AND NAEFS...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE IT MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN AMPLITUDE AND WESTWARD AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MID-WEEK.  SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES INLAND
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...A POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. A SECOND
ROUND OF MORE CONSOLIDATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO ARRIVE ON THE
COAST WILL LIKE ALLOW MVFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT AT
KAST. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THESE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPACT KONP AND PERHAPS THE PORTLAND METRO TAF SITES
CLOSER TO 12Z THURSDAY. ANY LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS THAT DO
DEVELOP SHOULD BECOME VFR TOWARDS 18Z TO 20Z THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...BKN TO OVC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO CLEAR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SPINNING
OFF WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL INCH ITS WAY CLOSER OVERNIGHT...AND
SPREAD ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO THE AREA. WITH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZING A BIT AND PERHAPS AN UPTICK IN RAIN SHOWERS...A PERIOD
OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN PRIMARILY 12Z AND 18Z
THURSDAY. /NEUMAN
&&

.MARINE...A BENT BACK OCCLUSION IS BRINGING SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT ACROSS
THE WATERS THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT BEFORE EASING BELOW 20 KT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY AFTER DAWN.

THESE WINDS ARE ALSO CREATING A FRESH SWELL THAT IS INCREASING
INTO THE 7 TO 9 FT RANGE...AND MAY EVEN BRIEFLY TOUCH 10 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. REGARDLESS...DOMINANT PERIODS WILL ALSO HOVER IN
THE 7 TO 9 SECOND RANGE...MEANING SEAS WILL BE ESPECIALLY STEEP
AND POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS. SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER THURSDAY
MORNING.

A ROUGH BAR FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WAS ALSO HOISTED FOR THE EBB LATE
TONIGHT. ANOTHER ONE MAY BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE BASED ON SEA TRENDS VS MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE SETUP TONIGHT IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO AN EVENT A
COUPLE WEEKS AGO THAT RESULTED IN A FISHING BOAT CAPSIZING ON THE
COLUMBIA RIVER BAR.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY STEEP SEAS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /NEUMAN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 AM TO
     6 AM PDT THURSDAY.
&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 240353
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
853 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  WILL
MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST OREGON TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ...PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THURSDAY...BEFORE
HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY...BRINGING DRYER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL UPPER LOW IS CENTERED AROUND 100
MILES OFFSHORE THE WASHINGTON/OREGON BORDER. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CENTER MOVING OVER THE SW WASHINGTON. THERE ARE
ALSO SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN BANDS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MOVING ACROSS
NW OREGON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND LIGHTNING. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...IN SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AN ISOLATED STORM
POPS UP ALONG THE NORTHER OREGON COAST OR COAST RANGE THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH INLAND ACROSS WASHINGTON STATE TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL END AROUND SUNSET
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE JUST A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE SW
WASHINGTON CASCADES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN
SOME WARMING THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALLEY TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

AN UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH INITIALLY QUITE FLAT...WILL SLOWLY START TO
MOVE IN FRIDAY FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER WITH SOME
MORNING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL FINALLY APPROACH 80
AGAIN INLAND. THE WARMING WILL CONTINUE IN EARNEST ON SATURDAY AS 500
MB HEIGHTS BUILD INTO AT LEAST THE MID 580S...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
PRETTY MUCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER SOME BRIEF MORNING
CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE NORTH. LOOK FOR INLAND HIGHS WELL UP IN THE 80S
SATURDAY...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 90 IN SOME AREAS. TJ/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST TO COME ONSHORE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIME THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THE LOCATION OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION.THE WAVE IS UNRESOLVED IN THE MEAN 500-MB HEIGHT
FIELD FROM GEFS AND NAEFS...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE IT MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN AMPLITUDE AND WESTWARD AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MID-WEEK.  SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES INLAND
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...A POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. A SECOND
ROUND OF MORE CONSOLIDATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO ARRIVE ON THE
COAST WILL LIKE ALLOW MVFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT AT
KAST. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THESE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPACT KONP AND PERHAPS THE PORTLAND METRO TAF SITES
CLOSER TO 12Z THURSDAY. ANY LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS THAT DO
DEVELOP SHOULD BECOME VFR TOWARDS 18Z TO 20Z THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...BKN TO OVC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO CLEAR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SPINNING
OFF WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL INCH ITS WAY CLOSER OVERNIGHT...AND
SPREAD ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO THE AREA. WITH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZING A BIT AND PERHAPS AN UPTICK IN RAIN SHOWERS...A PERIOD
OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN PRIMARILY 12Z AND 18Z
THURSDAY. /NEUMAN
&&

.MARINE...A BENT BACK OCCLUSION IS BRINGING SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT ACROSS
THE WATERS THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT BEFORE EASING BELOW 20 KT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY AFTER DAWN.

THESE WINDS ARE ALSO CREATING A FRESH SWELL THAT IS INCREASING
INTO THE 7 TO 9 FT RANGE...AND MAY EVEN BRIEFLY TOUCH 10 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. REGARDLESS...DOMINANT PERIODS WILL ALSO HOVER IN
THE 7 TO 9 SECOND RANGE...MEANING SEAS WILL BE ESPECIALLY STEEP
AND POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS. SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER THURSDAY
MORNING.

A ROUGH BAR FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WAS ALSO HOISTED FOR THE EBB LATE
TONIGHT. ANOTHER ONE MAY BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE BASED ON SEA TRENDS VS MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE SETUP TONIGHT IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO AN EVENT A
COUPLE WEEKS AGO THAT RESULTED IN A FISHING BOAT CAPSIZING ON THE
COLUMBIA RIVER BAR.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY STEEP SEAS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /NEUMAN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 AM TO
     6 AM PDT THURSDAY.
&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 240353
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
853 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  WILL
MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST OREGON TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ...PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THURSDAY...BEFORE
HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY...BRINGING DRYER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL UPPER LOW IS CENTERED AROUND 100
MILES OFFSHORE THE WASHINGTON/OREGON BORDER. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CENTER MOVING OVER THE SW WASHINGTON. THERE ARE
ALSO SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN BANDS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MOVING ACROSS
NW OREGON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND LIGHTNING. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...IN SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AN ISOLATED STORM
POPS UP ALONG THE NORTHER OREGON COAST OR COAST RANGE THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH INLAND ACROSS WASHINGTON STATE TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL END AROUND SUNSET
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE JUST A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE SW
WASHINGTON CASCADES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN
SOME WARMING THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALLEY TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

AN UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH INITIALLY QUITE FLAT...WILL SLOWLY START TO
MOVE IN FRIDAY FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER WITH SOME
MORNING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL FINALLY APPROACH 80
AGAIN INLAND. THE WARMING WILL CONTINUE IN EARNEST ON SATURDAY AS 500
MB HEIGHTS BUILD INTO AT LEAST THE MID 580S...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
PRETTY MUCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER SOME BRIEF MORNING
CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE NORTH. LOOK FOR INLAND HIGHS WELL UP IN THE 80S
SATURDAY...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 90 IN SOME AREAS. TJ/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST TO COME ONSHORE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIME THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THE LOCATION OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION.THE WAVE IS UNRESOLVED IN THE MEAN 500-MB HEIGHT
FIELD FROM GEFS AND NAEFS...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE IT MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN AMPLITUDE AND WESTWARD AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MID-WEEK.  SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES INLAND
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...A POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. A SECOND
ROUND OF MORE CONSOLIDATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO ARRIVE ON THE
COAST WILL LIKE ALLOW MVFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT AT
KAST. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THESE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPACT KONP AND PERHAPS THE PORTLAND METRO TAF SITES
CLOSER TO 12Z THURSDAY. ANY LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS THAT DO
DEVELOP SHOULD BECOME VFR TOWARDS 18Z TO 20Z THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...BKN TO OVC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO CLEAR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SPINNING
OFF WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL INCH ITS WAY CLOSER OVERNIGHT...AND
SPREAD ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO THE AREA. WITH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZING A BIT AND PERHAPS AN UPTICK IN RAIN SHOWERS...A PERIOD
OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN PRIMARILY 12Z AND 18Z
THURSDAY. /NEUMAN
&&

.MARINE...A BENT BACK OCCLUSION IS BRINGING SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT ACROSS
THE WATERS THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT BEFORE EASING BELOW 20 KT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY AFTER DAWN.

THESE WINDS ARE ALSO CREATING A FRESH SWELL THAT IS INCREASING
INTO THE 7 TO 9 FT RANGE...AND MAY EVEN BRIEFLY TOUCH 10 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. REGARDLESS...DOMINANT PERIODS WILL ALSO HOVER IN
THE 7 TO 9 SECOND RANGE...MEANING SEAS WILL BE ESPECIALLY STEEP
AND POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS. SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER THURSDAY
MORNING.

A ROUGH BAR FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WAS ALSO HOISTED FOR THE EBB LATE
TONIGHT. ANOTHER ONE MAY BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE BASED ON SEA TRENDS VS MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE SETUP TONIGHT IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO AN EVENT A
COUPLE WEEKS AGO THAT RESULTED IN A FISHING BOAT CAPSIZING ON THE
COLUMBIA RIVER BAR.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY STEEP SEAS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /NEUMAN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 AM TO
     6 AM PDT THURSDAY.
&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 240353
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
853 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  WILL
MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST OREGON TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ...PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THURSDAY...BEFORE
HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY...BRINGING DRYER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL UPPER LOW IS CENTERED AROUND 100
MILES OFFSHORE THE WASHINGTON/OREGON BORDER. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CENTER MOVING OVER THE SW WASHINGTON. THERE ARE
ALSO SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN BANDS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MOVING ACROSS
NW OREGON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND LIGHTNING. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...IN SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AN ISOLATED STORM
POPS UP ALONG THE NORTHER OREGON COAST OR COAST RANGE THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH INLAND ACROSS WASHINGTON STATE TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL END AROUND SUNSET
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE JUST A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE SW
WASHINGTON CASCADES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN
SOME WARMING THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALLEY TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

AN UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH INITIALLY QUITE FLAT...WILL SLOWLY START TO
MOVE IN FRIDAY FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER WITH SOME
MORNING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL FINALLY APPROACH 80
AGAIN INLAND. THE WARMING WILL CONTINUE IN EARNEST ON SATURDAY AS 500
MB HEIGHTS BUILD INTO AT LEAST THE MID 580S...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
PRETTY MUCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER SOME BRIEF MORNING
CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE NORTH. LOOK FOR INLAND HIGHS WELL UP IN THE 80S
SATURDAY...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 90 IN SOME AREAS. TJ/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST TO COME ONSHORE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIME THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THE LOCATION OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION.THE WAVE IS UNRESOLVED IN THE MEAN 500-MB HEIGHT
FIELD FROM GEFS AND NAEFS...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE IT MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN AMPLITUDE AND WESTWARD AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MID-WEEK.  SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES INLAND
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...A POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. A SECOND
ROUND OF MORE CONSOLIDATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO ARRIVE ON THE
COAST WILL LIKE ALLOW MVFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT AT
KAST. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THESE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPACT KONP AND PERHAPS THE PORTLAND METRO TAF SITES
CLOSER TO 12Z THURSDAY. ANY LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS THAT DO
DEVELOP SHOULD BECOME VFR TOWARDS 18Z TO 20Z THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...BKN TO OVC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO CLEAR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SPINNING
OFF WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL INCH ITS WAY CLOSER OVERNIGHT...AND
SPREAD ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO THE AREA. WITH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZING A BIT AND PERHAPS AN UPTICK IN RAIN SHOWERS...A PERIOD
OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN PRIMARILY 12Z AND 18Z
THURSDAY. /NEUMAN
&&

.MARINE...A BENT BACK OCCLUSION IS BRINGING SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT ACROSS
THE WATERS THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT BEFORE EASING BELOW 20 KT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY AFTER DAWN.

THESE WINDS ARE ALSO CREATING A FRESH SWELL THAT IS INCREASING
INTO THE 7 TO 9 FT RANGE...AND MAY EVEN BRIEFLY TOUCH 10 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. REGARDLESS...DOMINANT PERIODS WILL ALSO HOVER IN
THE 7 TO 9 SECOND RANGE...MEANING SEAS WILL BE ESPECIALLY STEEP
AND POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS. SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER THURSDAY
MORNING.

A ROUGH BAR FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WAS ALSO HOISTED FOR THE EBB LATE
TONIGHT. ANOTHER ONE MAY BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE BASED ON SEA TRENDS VS MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE SETUP TONIGHT IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO AN EVENT A
COUPLE WEEKS AGO THAT RESULTED IN A FISHING BOAT CAPSIZING ON THE
COLUMBIA RIVER BAR.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY STEEP SEAS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /NEUMAN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 AM TO
     6 AM PDT THURSDAY.
&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 240233
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
733 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue for the northern mountains tonight as a cold front exits
the region. Cool and windy weather is expected tonight behind the
cold front. Temperatures will rebound by the weekend and be
accompanied by dry conditions. Hot weather will return to the area
on Sunday and early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update to remove convective watches and to considerably
reduce coverage of showers and thunderstorms as the strong cold
front has moved through the region. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will still be possible in the unstable post frontal
air mass, but mainly relegated to the northern mountains. Windy
conditions will prevail tonight with gusts of 25 to 35 mph common.
Temperatures will be much cooler tonight and Thursday. Daytime
temperatures will be in the upper 60s and 70s tomorrow but will
warm up on Friday. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: COLD AIR FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE GUSTY
WINDS TO 35 MPH WITH REDUCTION IN STORM ACTIVITY FROM SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON TO NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AFTER 03Z.
EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY BUT ALL TAF SITES WILL
ESSENTIALLY BE EXPERIENCING A DRYING PERIOD AND BREEZY WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 MPH INTO 00Z FRIDAY. TC


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  71  50  76  54  84 /  30  20  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  53  67  49  75  48  82 /  50  30  10   0   0   0
Pullman        49  69  45  75  44  83 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       57  78  54  83  55  91 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       53  71  50  79  48  87 /  50  30  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      54  66  48  73  47  81 /  50  40  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        52  65  49  73  49  81 /  50  30  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     56  75  53  83  53  89 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      57  73  56  82  60  87 /  50  20   0   0   0   0
Omak           54  74  52  82  53  88 /  50  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 240233
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
733 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue for the northern mountains tonight as a cold front exits
the region. Cool and windy weather is expected tonight behind the
cold front. Temperatures will rebound by the weekend and be
accompanied by dry conditions. Hot weather will return to the area
on Sunday and early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update to remove convective watches and to considerably
reduce coverage of showers and thunderstorms as the strong cold
front has moved through the region. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will still be possible in the unstable post frontal
air mass, but mainly relegated to the northern mountains. Windy
conditions will prevail tonight with gusts of 25 to 35 mph common.
Temperatures will be much cooler tonight and Thursday. Daytime
temperatures will be in the upper 60s and 70s tomorrow but will
warm up on Friday. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: COLD AIR FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE GUSTY
WINDS TO 35 MPH WITH REDUCTION IN STORM ACTIVITY FROM SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON TO NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AFTER 03Z.
EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY BUT ALL TAF SITES WILL
ESSENTIALLY BE EXPERIENCING A DRYING PERIOD AND BREEZY WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 MPH INTO 00Z FRIDAY. TC


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  71  50  76  54  84 /  30  20  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  53  67  49  75  48  82 /  50  30  10   0   0   0
Pullman        49  69  45  75  44  83 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       57  78  54  83  55  91 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       53  71  50  79  48  87 /  50  30  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      54  66  48  73  47  81 /  50  40  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        52  65  49  73  49  81 /  50  30  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     56  75  53  83  53  89 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      57  73  56  82  60  87 /  50  20   0   0   0   0
Omak           54  74  52  82  53  88 /  50  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 240111
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
611 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

SYNOPSIS... A STRONG STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
CONINTUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT, BRINGING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL, STRONG WIND, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN MAINLY NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER THIS EVENING. COOL AND WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH LESS CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY
THE WEEKEND AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY DRY CONDITIONS. HOT WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR CANCELLATION OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND REDUCING THE
AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS.

TONIGHT...

..SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE BE A THREAT THROUGH THIS
EVENING NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER...

RADAR AND SATELLITE CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGIONSAND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING
TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SWIFTLY NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING AND DEADLY COMBINATION OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING, POSSIBLE
GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL, STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN CAUSING LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

IT IS HIGHLY URGED TO TAKE SHELTER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
A STURDY BUILDING UNTIL THE THE THREAT OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
PASS. THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS BY
LATE EVENING BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND THUNDERSTORMS, WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STRONG WITH 35 MPH GUSTS LASTING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

PLEASE CONTINUE TO CHECK FREQUENTLY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
DANGEROUS SITUATION FROM LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION NEWS SOURCES
AND THE NWS SPOKANE WEB SITE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SPOKANE .

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SHOWERS WILL STILL LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
EAST IN THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY
WILL A COOL NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. GOING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED AND A WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TC

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE HEAT RETURNS TO THE INLAND
NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF HOT WEATHER. BUT THERE ARE SOME FLIES IN THE OINTMENT.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A LITTLE RIPPLE IN THE FLOW COMING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST SOMETIME SUNDAY OR MONDAY. THIS BRINGS MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA WHICH COULD BRING A THREAT OF HIGH-BASED (I.E.
MOSTLY DRY) THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE OVER SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FOR MONDAY. AFTER THAT WAVE,
CONVECTION SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT
THAT COULD CHANGE WITH THE NEXT FORECASTS.

THE OTHER AFFECT OF THIS MOISTURE IS THAT IT WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH
THE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. CLOUDS OVERNIGHT COULD RESULT IN RATHER
BALMY LOW TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS DURING THE DAY COULD SHAVE A FEW
DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. AT THIS POINT I COOLED
TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.  RJ

&&

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO
THROUGH 06Z BRINGING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH, LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS
OF CIGS TO NEAR MVFR. COLD AIR FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH WITH REDUCTION IN STORM ACTIVITY FROM
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON TO NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AFTER 03Z.
EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY BUT ALL TAF SITES WILL
ESSENTIALLY BE EXPERIENCING A DRYING PERIOD AND BREEZY WINDS GUSTING
TO 30 MPH INTO 00Z FRIDAY. TC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        51  71  50  76  54  84 /  60  20  10   0   0   0
COEUR D`ALENE  53  67  49  75  48  82 /  60  30  10   0   0   0
PULLMAN        49  69  45  75  44  83 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
LEWISTON       57  78  54  83  55  91 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
COLVILLE       53  71  50  79  48  87 /  90  30  10   0   0   0
SANDPOINT      54  66  48  73  47  81 /  80  40  10   0   0   0
KELLOGG        52  65  49  73  49  81 /  60  30  10   0   0   0
MOSES LAKE     56  75  53  83  53  89 /  50  10   0   0   0   0
WENATCHEE      57  73  56  82  60  87 /  50  20   0   0   0   0
OMAK           54  74  52  82  53  88 /  90  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM FOR NORTH AND NORTH
CENTRAL IDAHO
WA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM FOR EAST CENTRAL
WASHINGTON NORTHEAST.


$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 240111
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
611 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

SYNOPSIS... A STRONG STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
CONINTUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT, BRINGING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL, STRONG WIND, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN MAINLY NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER THIS EVENING. COOL AND WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH LESS CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY
THE WEEKEND AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY DRY CONDITIONS. HOT WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR CANCELLATION OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND REDUCING THE
AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS.

TONIGHT...

..SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE BE A THREAT THROUGH THIS
EVENING NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER...

RADAR AND SATELLITE CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGIONSAND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING
TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SWIFTLY NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING AND DEADLY COMBINATION OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING, POSSIBLE
GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL, STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN CAUSING LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

IT IS HIGHLY URGED TO TAKE SHELTER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
A STURDY BUILDING UNTIL THE THE THREAT OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
PASS. THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS BY
LATE EVENING BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND THUNDERSTORMS, WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STRONG WITH 35 MPH GUSTS LASTING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

PLEASE CONTINUE TO CHECK FREQUENTLY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
DANGEROUS SITUATION FROM LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION NEWS SOURCES
AND THE NWS SPOKANE WEB SITE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SPOKANE .

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SHOWERS WILL STILL LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
EAST IN THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY
WILL A COOL NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. GOING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED AND A WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TC

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE HEAT RETURNS TO THE INLAND
NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF HOT WEATHER. BUT THERE ARE SOME FLIES IN THE OINTMENT.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A LITTLE RIPPLE IN THE FLOW COMING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST SOMETIME SUNDAY OR MONDAY. THIS BRINGS MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA WHICH COULD BRING A THREAT OF HIGH-BASED (I.E.
MOSTLY DRY) THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE OVER SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FOR MONDAY. AFTER THAT WAVE,
CONVECTION SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT
THAT COULD CHANGE WITH THE NEXT FORECASTS.

THE OTHER AFFECT OF THIS MOISTURE IS THAT IT WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH
THE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. CLOUDS OVERNIGHT COULD RESULT IN RATHER
BALMY LOW TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS DURING THE DAY COULD SHAVE A FEW
DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. AT THIS POINT I COOLED
TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.  RJ

&&

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO
THROUGH 06Z BRINGING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH, LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS
OF CIGS TO NEAR MVFR. COLD AIR FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH WITH REDUCTION IN STORM ACTIVITY FROM
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON TO NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AFTER 03Z.
EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY BUT ALL TAF SITES WILL
ESSENTIALLY BE EXPERIENCING A DRYING PERIOD AND BREEZY WINDS GUSTING
TO 30 MPH INTO 00Z FRIDAY. TC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        51  71  50  76  54  84 /  60  20  10   0   0   0
COEUR D`ALENE  53  67  49  75  48  82 /  60  30  10   0   0   0
PULLMAN        49  69  45  75  44  83 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
LEWISTON       57  78  54  83  55  91 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
COLVILLE       53  71  50  79  48  87 /  90  30  10   0   0   0
SANDPOINT      54  66  48  73  47  81 /  80  40  10   0   0   0
KELLOGG        52  65  49  73  49  81 /  60  30  10   0   0   0
MOSES LAKE     56  75  53  83  53  89 /  50  10   0   0   0   0
WENATCHEE      57  73  56  82  60  87 /  50  20   0   0   0   0
OMAK           54  74  52  82  53  88 /  90  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM FOR NORTH AND NORTH
CENTRAL IDAHO
WA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM FOR EAST CENTRAL
WASHINGTON NORTHEAST.


$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 240000
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
450 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION AND TONIGHT, BRINGING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL, STRONG WIND, FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAIN. COOL AND WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH LESS
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY THE
WEEKEND AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY DRY CONDITIONS. HOT WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE BE A THREAT THROUGH THIS
EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING THROUGH EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH FLASH FLOODING NEAR SOME OF
THE RECENT BURN AREAS SUCH AS THE CARLTON COMPLEX AND MILL CANYON
FIRES. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAD BEEN ISSUED IN THIS REGION SINCE
EARLY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THERE HAD ALSO BEEN
REPORTS OF HAIL AS LARGE AS A QUARTER.

RADAR AND SATELLITE CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD
FRONT AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CASCADES,
OKANOGAN REGION AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AS OF 2 PM. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SWIFTLY NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH A POTENTIALLY DAMAGING AND DEADLY COMBINATION OF
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, POSSIBLE GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL, STRONG WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAIN CAUSING LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

OVERALL ESTIMATES OF STORMS REACHING THE MAJOR METRO AREAS OF
SPOKANE AND COEUR D`ALENE AS EARLY AS 3 PM AND PROGRESSING INTO
THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON AND IDAHO PANHANDLE SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. IT IS HIGHLY URGED TO TAKE SHELTER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN A STURDY BUILD UNTIL THE THE THREAT OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS PASS. THE OVERALL THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PASS BY LATE EVENING BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND THUNDERSTORMS, WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STRONG WITH 35 MPH GUSTS LASTING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

PLEASE CONTINUE TO CHECK FREQUENTLY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
DANGEROUS SITUATION FROM LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION NEWS SOURCES
AND THE NWS SPOKANE WEB SITE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SPOKANE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SHOWERS WILL STILL LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
EAST IN THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY
WILL A COOL NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. GOING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED AND A WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TC

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE HEAT RETURNS TO THE INLAND
NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF HOT WEATHER. BUT THERE ARE SOME FLIES IN THE OINTMENT.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A LITTLE RIPPLE IN THE FLOW COMING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST SOMETIME SUNDAY OR MONDAY. THIS BRINGS MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA WHICH COULD BRING A THREAT OF HIGH-BASED (I.E.
MOSTLY DRY) THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE OVER SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FOR MONDAY. AFTER THAT WAVE,
CONVECTION SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT
THAT COULD CHANGE WITH THE NEXT FORECASTS.

THE OTHER AFFECT OF THIS MOISTURE IS THAT IT WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH
THE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. CLOUDS OVERNIGHT COULD RESULT IN RATHER
BALMY LOW TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS DURING THE DAY COULD SHAVE A FEW
DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. AT THIS POINT I COOLED
TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.  RJ

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO
THROUGH 06Z BRINGING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH, LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS
OF CIGS TO NEAR MVFR. COLD AIR FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH WITH REDUCTION IN STORM ACTIVITY FROM
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON TO NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AFTER 03Z.
EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY BUT ALL TAF SITES WILL
ESSENTIALLY BE EXPERIENCING A DRYING PERIOD AND BREEZY WINDS GUSTING
TO 30 MPH INTO 00Z FRIDAY. TC



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        51  71  50  76  54  84 /  70  20  10   0   0   0
COEUR D`ALENE  53  67  49  75  48  82 /  70  30  10   0   0   0
PULLMAN        49  69  45  75  44  83 /  60  10   0   0   0   0
LEWISTON       57  78  54  83  55  91 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
COLVILLE       53  71  50  79  48  87 /  80  30  10   0   0   0
SANDPOINT      54  66  48  73  47  81 /  80  40  10   0   0   0
KELLOGG        52  65  49  73  49  81 /  80  30  10   0   0   0
MOSES LAKE     56  75  53  83  53  89 /  60  10   0   0   0   0
WENATCHEE      57  73  56  82  60  87 /  60  20   0   0   0   0
OMAK           54  74  52  82  53  88 /  80  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM FOR NORTH IDAHO
WA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM FOR EAST CENTRAL
     WASHINGTON NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.
  FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST SLOPES
  NORTHERN CASCADES- OKANOGAN VALLEY-WENATCHEE AREA.




&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 240000
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
450 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION AND TONIGHT, BRINGING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL, STRONG WIND, FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAIN. COOL AND WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH LESS
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY THE
WEEKEND AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY DRY CONDITIONS. HOT WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE BE A THREAT THROUGH THIS
EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING THROUGH EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH FLASH FLOODING NEAR SOME OF
THE RECENT BURN AREAS SUCH AS THE CARLTON COMPLEX AND MILL CANYON
FIRES. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAD BEEN ISSUED IN THIS REGION SINCE
EARLY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THERE HAD ALSO BEEN
REPORTS OF HAIL AS LARGE AS A QUARTER.

RADAR AND SATELLITE CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD
FRONT AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CASCADES,
OKANOGAN REGION AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AS OF 2 PM. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SWIFTLY NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH A POTENTIALLY DAMAGING AND DEADLY COMBINATION OF
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, POSSIBLE GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL, STRONG WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAIN CAUSING LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

OVERALL ESTIMATES OF STORMS REACHING THE MAJOR METRO AREAS OF
SPOKANE AND COEUR D`ALENE AS EARLY AS 3 PM AND PROGRESSING INTO
THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON AND IDAHO PANHANDLE SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. IT IS HIGHLY URGED TO TAKE SHELTER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN A STURDY BUILD UNTIL THE THE THREAT OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS PASS. THE OVERALL THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PASS BY LATE EVENING BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND THUNDERSTORMS, WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STRONG WITH 35 MPH GUSTS LASTING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

PLEASE CONTINUE TO CHECK FREQUENTLY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
DANGEROUS SITUATION FROM LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION NEWS SOURCES
AND THE NWS SPOKANE WEB SITE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SPOKANE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SHOWERS WILL STILL LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
EAST IN THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY
WILL A COOL NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. GOING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED AND A WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TC

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE HEAT RETURNS TO THE INLAND
NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF HOT WEATHER. BUT THERE ARE SOME FLIES IN THE OINTMENT.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A LITTLE RIPPLE IN THE FLOW COMING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST SOMETIME SUNDAY OR MONDAY. THIS BRINGS MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA WHICH COULD BRING A THREAT OF HIGH-BASED (I.E.
MOSTLY DRY) THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE OVER SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FOR MONDAY. AFTER THAT WAVE,
CONVECTION SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT
THAT COULD CHANGE WITH THE NEXT FORECASTS.

THE OTHER AFFECT OF THIS MOISTURE IS THAT IT WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH
THE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. CLOUDS OVERNIGHT COULD RESULT IN RATHER
BALMY LOW TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS DURING THE DAY COULD SHAVE A FEW
DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. AT THIS POINT I COOLED
TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.  RJ

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO
THROUGH 06Z BRINGING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH, LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS
OF CIGS TO NEAR MVFR. COLD AIR FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH WITH REDUCTION IN STORM ACTIVITY FROM
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON TO NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AFTER 03Z.
EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY BUT ALL TAF SITES WILL
ESSENTIALLY BE EXPERIENCING A DRYING PERIOD AND BREEZY WINDS GUSTING
TO 30 MPH INTO 00Z FRIDAY. TC



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        51  71  50  76  54  84 /  70  20  10   0   0   0
COEUR D`ALENE  53  67  49  75  48  82 /  70  30  10   0   0   0
PULLMAN        49  69  45  75  44  83 /  60  10   0   0   0   0
LEWISTON       57  78  54  83  55  91 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
COLVILLE       53  71  50  79  48  87 /  80  30  10   0   0   0
SANDPOINT      54  66  48  73  47  81 /  80  40  10   0   0   0
KELLOGG        52  65  49  73  49  81 /  80  30  10   0   0   0
MOSES LAKE     56  75  53  83  53  89 /  60  10   0   0   0   0
WENATCHEE      57  73  56  82  60  87 /  60  20   0   0   0   0
OMAK           54  74  52  82  53  88 /  80  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM FOR NORTH IDAHO
WA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM FOR EAST CENTRAL
     WASHINGTON NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.
  FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST SLOPES
  NORTHERN CASCADES- OKANOGAN VALLEY-WENATCHEE AREA.




&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 232244
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
344 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION AND TONIGHT, BRINGING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL, STRONG WIND, FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAIN. COOL AND WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH LESS
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY THE
WEEKEND AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY DRY CONDITIONS. HOT WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE BE A THREAT THROUGH THIS
EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING THROUGH EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH FLASH FLOODING NEAR SOME OF
THE RECENT BURN AREAS SUCH AS THE CARLTON COMPLEX AND MILL CANYON
FIRES. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAD BEEN ISSUED IN THIS REGION SINCE
EARLY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THERE HAD ALSO BEEN
REPORTS OF HAIL AS LARGE AS A QUARTER.

RADAR AND SATELLITE CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD
FRONT AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CASCADES,
OKANOGAN REGION AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AS OF 2 PM. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SWIFTLY NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH A POTENTIALLY DAMAGING AND DEADLY COMBINATION OF
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, POSSIBLE GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL, STRONG WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAIN CAUSING LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

OVERALL ESTIMATES OF STORMS REACHING THE MAJOR METRO AREAS OF
SPOKANE AND COEUR D`ALENE AS EARLY AS 3 PM AND PROGRESSING INTO
THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON AND IDAHO PANHANDLE SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. IT IS HIGHLY URGED TO TAKE SHELTER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN A STURDY BUILD UNTIL THE THE THREAT OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS PASS. THE OVERALL THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PASS BY LATE EVENING BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND THUNDERSTORMS, WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STRONG WITH 35 MPH GUSTS LASTING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

PLEASE CONTINUE TO CHECK FREQUENTLY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
DANGEROUS SITUATION FROM LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION NEWS SOURCES
AND THE NWS SPOKANE WEB SITE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SPOKANE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SHOWERS WILL STILL LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
EAST IN THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY
WILL A COOL NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. GOING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED AND A WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TC

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE HEAT RETURNS TO THE INLAND
NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF HOT WEATHER. BUT THERE ARE SOME FLIES IN THE OINTMENT.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A LITTLE RIPPLE IN THE FLOW COMING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST SOMETIME SUNDAY OR MONDAY. THIS BRINGS MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA WHICH COULD BRING A THREAT OF HIGH-BASED (I.E.
MOSTLY DRY) THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE OVER SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FOR MONDAY. AFTER THAT WAVE,
CONVECTION SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT
THAT COULD CHANGE WITH THE NEXT FORECASTS.

THE OTHER AFFECT OF THIS MOISTURE IS THAT IT WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH
THE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. CLOUDS OVERNIGHT COULD RESULT IN RATHER
BALMY LOW TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS DURING THE DAY COULD SHAVE A FEW
DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. AT THIS POINT I COOLED
TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.  RJ

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL SHIFT MOVE INLAND OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIDESPREAD RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES WILL BE NEAR
KEAT WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES. STRONGER STORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE BASIN AND TRACK EAST TOWARD THE WA/ID BORDER ARND
00Z BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. GUSTY WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT
PASSAGE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY BUT ALL TAF SITES
DRY OUT OVERNIGHT.  /SB



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        51  71  50  76  54  84 /  70  20  10   0   0   0
COEUR D`ALENE  53  67  49  75  48  82 /  70  30  10   0   0   0
PULLMAN        49  69  45  75  44  83 /  60  10   0   0   0   0
LEWISTON       57  78  54  83  55  91 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
COLVILLE       53  71  50  79  48  87 /  80  30  10   0   0   0
SANDPOINT      54  66  48  73  47  81 /  80  40  10   0   0   0
KELLOGG        52  65  49  73  49  81 /  80  30  10   0   0   0
MOSES LAKE     56  75  53  83  53  89 /  60  10   0   0   0   0
WENATCHEE      57  73  56  82  60  87 /  60  20   0   0   0   0
OMAK           54  74  52  82  53  88 /  80  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM FOR NORTH IDAHO
WA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM FOR EAST CENTRAL
     WASHINGTON NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.
  FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST SLOPES
  NORTHERN CASCADES- OKANOGAN VALLEY-WENATCHEE AREA.




&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSEW 232204
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT AS IT MOVES INLAND
FROM THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST INTO ALBERTA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY...BRINGING SUNNY WARMER WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A 5590 METER UPPER LOW IS OVER THE WASHINGTON OFFSHORE
WATERS NEAR 47N/126W THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
FALLING ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL EXCEEDS AN
INCH IN SOME AREAS -- MAINLY OVER THE WEST PART OF THE PUGET SOUND
REGION...WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES...AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. THE
DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR JULY 23 HAS ALREADY BEEN BROKEN AT
SEATAC...BELLINGHAM...AND HOQUIAM. THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED
EARLY THIS MORNING MOVED NORTHEAST...AND AT LEAST IN OUR FORECAST
AREA THEY HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO THE CASCADE CREST SINCE LATE MORNING.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD...MOVING INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON THIS EVENING AND LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
LATE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...BUT RAINFALL RATES
WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH IS
LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS...WITH 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS COMMON
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE AROUND 7000 FT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...AS THE AIR MASS
IS STILL MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH DIFFLUENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. IT
IS A BIT SURPRISING THAT MORE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED YET
OVER OUR AREA...WESTERN OREGON...OR OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE AIR MASS SHOULD BE AT ITS MOST UNSTABLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING THOUGH...AND THE SMALL COMMA IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER
LOW ITSELF COULD HELP RENEW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL VEER TO WESTERLY AGAIN THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THE AIR MASS WILL STABILIZE AND BEGIN
TO DRY...BUT MOIST ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND A PUGET
SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP. ON THE WHOLE SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE THURSDAY...WITH SOME SUNBREAKS LIKELY OVER THE
LOWLANDS.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT UPPER HEIGHTS WILL START TO RISE AS A RIDGE
BUILDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
HIGH. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MARINE LAYER CLOUDS TO START THE
DAY...BUT THEY WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AT LEAST OVER THE
INTERIOR.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
500 MB HEIGHTS CLIMBING TO AROUND 5820 METERS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
WEAKEN. SATURDAY SHOULD BE WARMER AND SUNNY WITH SOME NIGHT AND
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.   MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON CLIMBING TO AROUND 5880 METERS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND THERMALLY-INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES
WILL MAINTAIN VERY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. SOME MODEL RUNS -- MAINLY OF
THE GFS -- HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN WITH A MARINE
PUSH AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THE MOST RECENT RUNS MAINTAIN THE
UPPER RIDGE THROUGH MIDWEEK. BOTTOM LINE IS THIS WILL BE A STRETCH
OF SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER.   MCDONNAL

&&

.CLIMATE...THERE HAVE BEEN 23 JULY DAYS WITH 0.50 INCHES OF RAIN OR
MORE SINCE RECORDS STARTED AT SEA-TAC IN 1945. ONLY 3 OF THOSE DAYS
HAVE BEEN SINCE 2000...0.65 INCHES ON JULY 16TH 2001....0.60 INCHES
ON JULY 20TH 2012 AND 0.58 INCHES ON JULY 7TH 2002. THE RECORD FOR
THE WETTEST JULY DAY AT SEA-TAC IS 0.85 INCHES ON JULY 13TH 1981.
THE WETTEST JULY DAY ON RECORD IN SEATTLE IS 0.98 INCHES ON JULY 5TH
1897 WHEN RECORDS WERE KEPT AT THE FEDERAL BUILDING DOWNTOWN. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE INLAND
THIS EVENING THEN NORTHEAST TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT...THEN STRONG NORTHWEST LATE. AT THE
SURFACE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THURSDAY. AIR MASS UNSTABLE AND MOIST ALL LEVELS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE MAIN WEATHER
SYSTEM AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME CLEARING ON THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. SOME RETURN FLOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
ON THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN
ALL OVER THE PLACE TODAY BUT CURRENTLY ARE MOSTLY VFR. SHOULD BE
MOSTLY VFR GOING FORWARD WITH OCCASIONAL EXCURSIONS TO MVFR IN
SHOWERS. GENERAL IMPROVING TREND WILL BEGIN ABOUT MID DAY THURSDAY.

KSEA...VFR CEILINGS EXCEPT MVFR IN SHOWERS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IS JUST BARELY POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. IMPROVING TREND AFTER ABOUT
20Z THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST WIND 10G20 KT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN
AND MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. IT SHOULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH PUNCH TO BRING
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SOUTHWEST OR WEST WINDS IN MOST ZONES INCLUDING PUGET SOUND. ONSHORE
FLOW BECOMES STRONGER THURSDAY. FOR NOW HAVE INDICATED 20-30 KT
WESTERLIES IN THE STRAIT BUT GALES SEEM POSSIBLE THERE ON THURSDAY.

AFTER THURSDAY THE NORMAL SUMMER PATTERN RETURNS WITH ONSHORE FLOW
STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES IN THE STRAIT AT
TIMES. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT CENTRAL AND NORTH INNER
COAST.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 232204
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT AS IT MOVES INLAND
FROM THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST INTO ALBERTA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY...BRINGING SUNNY WARMER WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A 5590 METER UPPER LOW IS OVER THE WASHINGTON OFFSHORE
WATERS NEAR 47N/126W THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
FALLING ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL EXCEEDS AN
INCH IN SOME AREAS -- MAINLY OVER THE WEST PART OF THE PUGET SOUND
REGION...WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES...AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. THE
DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR JULY 23 HAS ALREADY BEEN BROKEN AT
SEATAC...BELLINGHAM...AND HOQUIAM. THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED
EARLY THIS MORNING MOVED NORTHEAST...AND AT LEAST IN OUR FORECAST
AREA THEY HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO THE CASCADE CREST SINCE LATE MORNING.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD...MOVING INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON THIS EVENING AND LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
LATE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...BUT RAINFALL RATES
WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH IS
LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS...WITH 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS COMMON
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE AROUND 7000 FT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...AS THE AIR MASS
IS STILL MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH DIFFLUENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. IT
IS A BIT SURPRISING THAT MORE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED YET
OVER OUR AREA...WESTERN OREGON...OR OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE AIR MASS SHOULD BE AT ITS MOST UNSTABLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING THOUGH...AND THE SMALL COMMA IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER
LOW ITSELF COULD HELP RENEW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL VEER TO WESTERLY AGAIN THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THE AIR MASS WILL STABILIZE AND BEGIN
TO DRY...BUT MOIST ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND A PUGET
SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP. ON THE WHOLE SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE THURSDAY...WITH SOME SUNBREAKS LIKELY OVER THE
LOWLANDS.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT UPPER HEIGHTS WILL START TO RISE AS A RIDGE
BUILDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
HIGH. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MARINE LAYER CLOUDS TO START THE
DAY...BUT THEY WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AT LEAST OVER THE
INTERIOR.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
500 MB HEIGHTS CLIMBING TO AROUND 5820 METERS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
WEAKEN. SATURDAY SHOULD BE WARMER AND SUNNY WITH SOME NIGHT AND
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.   MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON CLIMBING TO AROUND 5880 METERS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND THERMALLY-INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES
WILL MAINTAIN VERY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. SOME MODEL RUNS -- MAINLY OF
THE GFS -- HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN WITH A MARINE
PUSH AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THE MOST RECENT RUNS MAINTAIN THE
UPPER RIDGE THROUGH MIDWEEK. BOTTOM LINE IS THIS WILL BE A STRETCH
OF SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER.   MCDONNAL

&&

.CLIMATE...THERE HAVE BEEN 23 JULY DAYS WITH 0.50 INCHES OF RAIN OR
MORE SINCE RECORDS STARTED AT SEA-TAC IN 1945. ONLY 3 OF THOSE DAYS
HAVE BEEN SINCE 2000...0.65 INCHES ON JULY 16TH 2001....0.60 INCHES
ON JULY 20TH 2012 AND 0.58 INCHES ON JULY 7TH 2002. THE RECORD FOR
THE WETTEST JULY DAY AT SEA-TAC IS 0.85 INCHES ON JULY 13TH 1981.
THE WETTEST JULY DAY ON RECORD IN SEATTLE IS 0.98 INCHES ON JULY 5TH
1897 WHEN RECORDS WERE KEPT AT THE FEDERAL BUILDING DOWNTOWN. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE INLAND
THIS EVENING THEN NORTHEAST TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT...THEN STRONG NORTHWEST LATE. AT THE
SURFACE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THURSDAY. AIR MASS UNSTABLE AND MOIST ALL LEVELS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE MAIN WEATHER
SYSTEM AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME CLEARING ON THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. SOME RETURN FLOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
ON THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN
ALL OVER THE PLACE TODAY BUT CURRENTLY ARE MOSTLY VFR. SHOULD BE
MOSTLY VFR GOING FORWARD WITH OCCASIONAL EXCURSIONS TO MVFR IN
SHOWERS. GENERAL IMPROVING TREND WILL BEGIN ABOUT MID DAY THURSDAY.

KSEA...VFR CEILINGS EXCEPT MVFR IN SHOWERS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IS JUST BARELY POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. IMPROVING TREND AFTER ABOUT
20Z THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST WIND 10G20 KT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN
AND MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. IT SHOULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH PUNCH TO BRING
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SOUTHWEST OR WEST WINDS IN MOST ZONES INCLUDING PUGET SOUND. ONSHORE
FLOW BECOMES STRONGER THURSDAY. FOR NOW HAVE INDICATED 20-30 KT
WESTERLIES IN THE STRAIT BUT GALES SEEM POSSIBLE THERE ON THURSDAY.

AFTER THURSDAY THE NORMAL SUMMER PATTERN RETURNS WITH ONSHORE FLOW
STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES IN THE STRAIT AT
TIMES. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT CENTRAL AND NORTH INNER
COAST.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KOTX 232125
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
225 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT, BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS WITH POCKETS
OF HEAVY RAIN. COOL AND WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY THE WEEKEND AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY DRY
CONDITIONS. HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE BE A THREAT THROUGH THIS
EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING THROUGH EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH FLASH FLOODING NEAR SOME OF
THE RECENT BURN AREAS SUCH AS THE CARLTON COMPLEX AND MILL CANYON
FIRES. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAD BEEN ISSUED IN THIS REGION SINCE
EARLY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THERE HAD ALSO BEEN
REPORTS OF HAIL AS LARGE AS A QUARTER.

RADAR AND SATELLITE CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD
FRONT AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CASCADES,
OKANOGAN REGION AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AS OF 2 PM. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SWIFTLY NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH A POTENTIALLY DAMAGING AND DEADLY COMBINATION OF
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, POSSIBLE GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL, STRONG WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAIN CAUSING LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

OVERALL ESTIMATES OF STORMS REACHING THE MAJOR METRO AREAS OF
SPOKANE AND COEUR D`ALENE AS EARLY AS 3 PM AND PROGRESSING INTO
THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON AND IDAHO PANHANDLE SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. IT IS HIGHLY URGED TO TAKE SHELTER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN A STURDY BUILD UNTIL THE THE THREAT OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS PASS. THE OVERALL THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PASS BY LATE EVENING BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND THUNDERSTORMS, WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STRONG WITH 35 MPH GUSTS LASTING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

PLEASE CONTINUE TO CHECK FREQUENTLY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
DANGEROUS SITUATION FROM LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION NEWS SOURCES
AND THE NWS SPOKANE WEB SITE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SPOKANE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SHOWERS WILL STILL LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
EAST IN THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY
WILL A COOL NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. GOING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED AND A WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TC

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE HEAT RETURNS TO THE INLAND
NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF HOT WEATHER. BUT THERE ARE SOME FLIES IN THE OINTMENT.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A LITTLE RIPPLE IN THE FLOW COMING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST SOMETIME SUNDAY OR MONDAY. THIS BRINGS MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA WHICH COULD BRING A THREAT OF HIGH-BASED (I.E.
MOSTLY DRY) THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE OVER SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FOR MONDAY. AFTER THAT WAVE,
CONVECTION SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT
THAT COULD CHANGE WITH THE NEXT FORECASTS.

THE OTHER AFFECT OF THIS MOISTURE IS THAT IT WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH
THE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. CLOUDS OVERNIGHT COULD RESULT IN RATHER
BALMY LOW TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS DURING THE DAY COULD SHAVE A FEW
DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. AT THIS POINT I COOLED
TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.  RJ

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL SHIFT MOVE INLAND OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIDESPREAD RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES WILL BE NEAR
KEAT WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES. STRONGER STORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE BASIN AND TRACK EAST TOWARD THE WA/ID BORDER ARND
00Z BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. GUSTY WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT
PASSAGE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY BUT ALL TAF SITES
DRY OUT OVERNIGHT.  /SB



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        51  71  50  76  54  84 /  70  20  10   0   0   0
COEUR D`ALENE  53  67  49  75  48  82 /  70  30  10   0   0   0
PULLMAN        49  69  45  75  44  83 /  60  10   0   0   0   0
LEWISTON       57  78  54  83  55  91 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
COLVILLE       53  71  50  79  48  87 /  80  30  10   0   0   0
SANDPOINT      54  66  48  73  47  81 /  80  40  10   0   0   0
KELLOGG        52  65  49  73  49  81 /  80  30  10   0   0   0
MOSES LAKE     56  75  53  83  53  89 /  60  10   0   0   0   0
WENATCHEE      57  73  56  82  60  87 /  60  20   0   0   0   0
OMAK           54  74  52  82  53  88 /  80  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST SLOPES
     NORTHERN CASCADES-OKANOGAN VALLEY-WENATCHEE AREA.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KPQR 232124
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
224 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON. THE
LOW CENTER WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY...OTHERWISE
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER BY FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS STILL CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ONSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING WAS STILL OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND SATELLITE
EXTRAPOLATION SHOWS THAT THE BACK EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUDS SHOULD
CLEAR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AROUND 22Z OR 23Z AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES SHORTLY AFTER THAT. ONCE THE BACK EDGE MOVES THROUGH... WE
WILL SEE SOME BRIEF HEATING DURING WHICH WE WILL SEE OUR HIGH TEMP
FOR THE DAY...AND IF THERE ARE ANY THUNDERSTORMS...TI WILL BE DURING
THAT PERIOD...THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE LOW CENTER ITSELF COMES ONSHORE TONIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON. THE MODELS SHOW PART OF THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION ON THE
BACK OR WEST SIDE OF THE LOW WILL SWING THROUGH OUR NORTHERN FORECAST
ZONES FROM ABOUT THE COLUMBIA RIVER OR PORTLAND NORTHWARD OR SO
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME STEADY RAIN
WITH THIS FEATURE...AND ANOTHER SHOT OF DECENT QPF AMOUNTS. THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES DETECTED WITH THIS FEATURE OFF THE
WASHINGTON COAST TODAY...SO WILL KEEP SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
NORTH COAST TONIGHT AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ONSHORE.

THE LOW MOVES OUT TO THE EAST PRETTY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
THURSDAY WITH CLOUDS IN THE NORTH FROM ABOUT SALEM NORTHWARD BEING
SLOW TO CLEAR. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL START TO REBOUND SOME THURSDAY
AND GET INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WARMEST SOUTH.

AN UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH INITIALLY QUITE FLAT...WILL SLOWLY START TO
MOVE IN FRIDAY FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER WITH SOME
MORNING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL FINALLY APPROACH 80
AGAIN INLAND. THE WARMING WILL CONTINUE IN EARNEST ON SATURDAY AS 500
MB HEIGHTS BUILD INTO AT LEAST THE MID 580S...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
PRETTY MUCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER SOME BRIEF MORNING
CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE NORTH. LOOK FOR INLAND HIGHS WELL UP IN THE 80S
SATURDAY...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 90 IN SOME AREAS. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST TO COME ONSHORE
SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIME THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THE
LOCATION OF ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION.  THE WAVE IS UNRESOLVED IN
THE MEAN 500-MB HEIGHT FIELD FROM GEFS AND NAEFS...BUT THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH HAVE IT MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD IN AMPLITUDE AND WESTWARD AND WILL
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES BY MID-WEEK.  SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES INLAND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM
OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...THE MAIN FRONTAL LINE CONTINUES TO PUSH ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOWER CIGS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. BEHIND THE
LINE...THE COASTAL AREAS HAVE BECOME VFR WITH A SCATTERED LAYER
AROUND 3000 FT AND ANOTHER ABOVE 5000 FT. GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST NEAR KONP THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AS OF 21Z CIGS ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY HAVE FOLLOWED
SUIT WITH A FEW LOCAL MVFR POCKETS REMAINING UNDER HEAVIER RAIN.
GIVEN THIS CLEARING OCCURRING...THREAT FOR FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE CONCERNING TIMING OR
LOCATION TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. THEN AS LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE
LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
AROUND 06Z AT THE COAST. EXPECT CIGS AROUND 2500-3500 FT AFT 10Z
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
WITH CIGS AROUND 3000-3500 FT. FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING ALONG WITH ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND LOWERING CIGS LIKELY ARRIVES
AROUND 12Z AS LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.   CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE INCREASED TODAY AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES NEAR
THE WATERS TOWARDS THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING AS GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT OVER THE
WATERS WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL BE SOMEWHAT STEEP AT
TIMES AS DOMINANT PERIODS ARE AROUND 7 SECONDS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE
WATERS REACHING HAZARDOUS SEAS CRITERIA AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
MONITOR THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL EASE SOMEWHAT LATER THU...BEFORE HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER
NE PAC AND A THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDS OVER N CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL
BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN
SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...FOR FRI
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 232124
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
224 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON. THE
LOW CENTER WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY...OTHERWISE
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER BY FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS STILL CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ONSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING WAS STILL OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND SATELLITE
EXTRAPOLATION SHOWS THAT THE BACK EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUDS SHOULD
CLEAR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AROUND 22Z OR 23Z AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES SHORTLY AFTER THAT. ONCE THE BACK EDGE MOVES THROUGH... WE
WILL SEE SOME BRIEF HEATING DURING WHICH WE WILL SEE OUR HIGH TEMP
FOR THE DAY...AND IF THERE ARE ANY THUNDERSTORMS...TI WILL BE DURING
THAT PERIOD...THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE LOW CENTER ITSELF COMES ONSHORE TONIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON. THE MODELS SHOW PART OF THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION ON THE
BACK OR WEST SIDE OF THE LOW WILL SWING THROUGH OUR NORTHERN FORECAST
ZONES FROM ABOUT THE COLUMBIA RIVER OR PORTLAND NORTHWARD OR SO
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME STEADY RAIN
WITH THIS FEATURE...AND ANOTHER SHOT OF DECENT QPF AMOUNTS. THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES DETECTED WITH THIS FEATURE OFF THE
WASHINGTON COAST TODAY...SO WILL KEEP SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
NORTH COAST TONIGHT AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ONSHORE.

THE LOW MOVES OUT TO THE EAST PRETTY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
THURSDAY WITH CLOUDS IN THE NORTH FROM ABOUT SALEM NORTHWARD BEING
SLOW TO CLEAR. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL START TO REBOUND SOME THURSDAY
AND GET INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WARMEST SOUTH.

AN UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH INITIALLY QUITE FLAT...WILL SLOWLY START TO
MOVE IN FRIDAY FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER WITH SOME
MORNING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL FINALLY APPROACH 80
AGAIN INLAND. THE WARMING WILL CONTINUE IN EARNEST ON SATURDAY AS 500
MB HEIGHTS BUILD INTO AT LEAST THE MID 580S...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
PRETTY MUCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER SOME BRIEF MORNING
CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE NORTH. LOOK FOR INLAND HIGHS WELL UP IN THE 80S
SATURDAY...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 90 IN SOME AREAS. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST TO COME ONSHORE
SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIME THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THE
LOCATION OF ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION.  THE WAVE IS UNRESOLVED IN
THE MEAN 500-MB HEIGHT FIELD FROM GEFS AND NAEFS...BUT THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH HAVE IT MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD IN AMPLITUDE AND WESTWARD AND WILL
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES BY MID-WEEK.  SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES INLAND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM
OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...THE MAIN FRONTAL LINE CONTINUES TO PUSH ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOWER CIGS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. BEHIND THE
LINE...THE COASTAL AREAS HAVE BECOME VFR WITH A SCATTERED LAYER
AROUND 3000 FT AND ANOTHER ABOVE 5000 FT. GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST NEAR KONP THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AS OF 21Z CIGS ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY HAVE FOLLOWED
SUIT WITH A FEW LOCAL MVFR POCKETS REMAINING UNDER HEAVIER RAIN.
GIVEN THIS CLEARING OCCURRING...THREAT FOR FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE CONCERNING TIMING OR
LOCATION TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. THEN AS LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE
LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
AROUND 06Z AT THE COAST. EXPECT CIGS AROUND 2500-3500 FT AFT 10Z
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
WITH CIGS AROUND 3000-3500 FT. FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING ALONG WITH ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND LOWERING CIGS LIKELY ARRIVES
AROUND 12Z AS LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.   CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE INCREASED TODAY AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES NEAR
THE WATERS TOWARDS THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING AS GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT OVER THE
WATERS WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL BE SOMEWHAT STEEP AT
TIMES AS DOMINANT PERIODS ARE AROUND 7 SECONDS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE
WATERS REACHING HAZARDOUS SEAS CRITERIA AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
MONITOR THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL EASE SOMEWHAT LATER THU...BEFORE HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER
NE PAC AND A THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDS OVER N CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL
BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN
SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...FOR FRI
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 231756
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1056 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm system will move through the region today, bringing
the potential for thunderstorms and heavy rain. Cool and windy
weather is expected for Thursday. Temperatures will rebound by the
weekend and be accompanied by dry conditions. Hot weather will
return to the area on Sunday and early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Quick update for today: Main message is the threat for strong to
severe storms across the eastern third of WA and Nrn ID while
heavy rains brings a risk for flash flooding/mudslides over burn
scars in the Cascades. SPC has spread the slight risk into much of
eastern WA and Nrn ID and a watch is not out of the question.
Areas of Ern WA and Nrn ID are experiencing sunny skies at this
hour which is going to allow the environment to reach potential
instability parameters via the model guidance. A much tougher call
for central WA given the pronounced cloudiness. Thunder is still
likely but whether instability can incr enough to support severe
storms is not as promising.

Meanwhile, embedded vort maximums tracking ahead of the main front
is enhancing convection along and mainly west of the Cascade
Crest with very impressive rates of upwards of 0.50"/hour under
the strongest cores. One wave passing through southern Chelan
County at this hour and peeling off to the N/NW. Activity with
this cluster is not as intense as observed with cores upstream
with 1 hour amounts generally in the 0.05-0.15" range, but
isolated lightning strikes have been observed and the potential
for strengthening is there given the instability noted on forecast
soundings and how intense some of the convection was in Seattle`s
area this morning. Things are likely to shift east over the
course of the next 1-3 hours as the upper-low comes east and
spreads the training moisture and rain into the East Slopes. Flash
flood watches in effect. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Low pressure off the coast will shift move inland over
the next 24 hours. Widespread rain...heavy at times will be near
KEAT with embedded lightning strikes. Stronger storms expected to
develop in the Basin and track east toward the WA/ID border arnd
00z bringing the potential for damaging winds, hail, and heavy
downpours. Gusty winds will follow in the wake of cold front
passage late afternoon and into the overnight periods. Lingering
showers over the northern mountains for Thursday but all TAF sites
dry out overnight.  /sb


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        83  52  71  51  77  55 /  60  80  20  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  84  53  67  52  76  51 /  50  80  40  10   0   0
Pullman        84  49  69  46  76  44 /  40  70  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       90  58  78  57  84  56 /  40  60  10   0   0   0
Colville       81  51  71  51  80  50 /  60  80  50  10   0   0
Sandpoint      85  51  66  49  73  49 /  50  80  50  10   0   0
Kellogg        85  52  65  50  73  51 /  40  80  40  10   0   0
Moses Lake     83  56  75  57  84  57 /  60  40  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      75  58  73  59  83  61 /  80  40  20   0   0   0
Omak           77  55  74  53  84  54 /  80  60  20  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for East Slopes Northern
     Cascades-Okanogan Valley-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 231756
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1056 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm system will move through the region today, bringing
the potential for thunderstorms and heavy rain. Cool and windy
weather is expected for Thursday. Temperatures will rebound by the
weekend and be accompanied by dry conditions. Hot weather will
return to the area on Sunday and early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Quick update for today: Main message is the threat for strong to
severe storms across the eastern third of WA and Nrn ID while
heavy rains brings a risk for flash flooding/mudslides over burn
scars in the Cascades. SPC has spread the slight risk into much of
eastern WA and Nrn ID and a watch is not out of the question.
Areas of Ern WA and Nrn ID are experiencing sunny skies at this
hour which is going to allow the environment to reach potential
instability parameters via the model guidance. A much tougher call
for central WA given the pronounced cloudiness. Thunder is still
likely but whether instability can incr enough to support severe
storms is not as promising.

Meanwhile, embedded vort maximums tracking ahead of the main front
is enhancing convection along and mainly west of the Cascade
Crest with very impressive rates of upwards of 0.50"/hour under
the strongest cores. One wave passing through southern Chelan
County at this hour and peeling off to the N/NW. Activity with
this cluster is not as intense as observed with cores upstream
with 1 hour amounts generally in the 0.05-0.15" range, but
isolated lightning strikes have been observed and the potential
for strengthening is there given the instability noted on forecast
soundings and how intense some of the convection was in Seattle`s
area this morning. Things are likely to shift east over the
course of the next 1-3 hours as the upper-low comes east and
spreads the training moisture and rain into the East Slopes. Flash
flood watches in effect. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Low pressure off the coast will shift move inland over
the next 24 hours. Widespread rain...heavy at times will be near
KEAT with embedded lightning strikes. Stronger storms expected to
develop in the Basin and track east toward the WA/ID border arnd
00z bringing the potential for damaging winds, hail, and heavy
downpours. Gusty winds will follow in the wake of cold front
passage late afternoon and into the overnight periods. Lingering
showers over the northern mountains for Thursday but all TAF sites
dry out overnight.  /sb


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        83  52  71  51  77  55 /  60  80  20  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  84  53  67  52  76  51 /  50  80  40  10   0   0
Pullman        84  49  69  46  76  44 /  40  70  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       90  58  78  57  84  56 /  40  60  10   0   0   0
Colville       81  51  71  51  80  50 /  60  80  50  10   0   0
Sandpoint      85  51  66  49  73  49 /  50  80  50  10   0   0
Kellogg        85  52  65  50  73  51 /  40  80  40  10   0   0
Moses Lake     83  56  75  57  84  57 /  60  40  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      75  58  73  59  83  61 /  80  40  20   0   0   0
Omak           77  55  74  53  84  54 /  80  60  20  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for East Slopes Northern
     Cascades-Okanogan Valley-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 231642 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
937 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THE
LOW CENTER WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY...OTHERWISE
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER BY FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS
MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON...THAT MAY NOT MOVE EAST OF THE
CASCADES UNTIL LATER TODAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE AT THE COAST AND IN THE COAST RANGE...WITH AROUND AN INCH
NEAR TILLAMOOK AND HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH IN THE COAST RANGE.
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LESS IN THE VALLEY...BUT MAY PUSH A HALF INCH IN
THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS MAY START TO BREAK UP BEHIND
IT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY DEVELOPING WITH SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY SHOWERS.
TEMPS TODAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70...DOING SO LATE IN THE DAY.

THE LOW CENTER COMES ONSHORE TONIGHT...AND THE MODELS SHOW PART OF
THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION SWINGING THROUGH OUR NORTHERN ZONES FROM
ABOUT THE COLUMBIA RIVER OR SO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
WITH SOME POSSIBLY STEADY RAIN AND ANOTHER SHOT OF DECENT QPF
AMOUNTS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR THIS IN THE MORNING PACKAGE.

THE LOW MOVES OUT TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CLOUDS IN THE
NORTH FROM ABOUT SALEM SOUTH BEING SLOW TO CLEAR THURSDAY...AND A FEW
SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL
START TO REBOUND AND GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

AN UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH QUITE FLAT...WILL SLOWLY START TO MOVE IN
FRIDAY FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER WITH SOME MORNING
CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL FINALLY APPROACH 80 AGAIN.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS AMPLIFYING AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS
WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM AND LOCATION.  -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING AS A
LINE OF RAIN MOVES INTO THE VALLEY WITH CIGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2500
FT AND 3500 FT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR IN THE COMING HOURS AS
RAIN PUSHES THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH LOCAL IFR AT TIMES WITH HEAVIER
RAIN. MEANWHILE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THOUGH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PINPOINT TIMING OR LOCATION
IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS PROBABLY REMAIN MVFR
OR WORSE ALONG THE COAST WED NIGHT...THOUGH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR STARTING AROUND 03Z WED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
WITH CIGS AROUND 3000-3500 FT. NEXT LINE OF RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND
16Z WITH CONTINUED RAIN AT TIMES TODAY. ABOUT 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING THE TERMINAL OR OPS AREA TODAY THROUGH 03Z.
CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRES SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WATERS AND INCREASED PRES GRADIENT. AS A
RESULT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OREGON WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. PROBABLY WILL SEE
SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25 KT S OF CASCADE HEAD AND OVER THE
CENTRAL OREGON INNER WATERS...BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO EXTEND
ADVISORY SOUTHWARD. SEAS MAY BUILD SLIGHTLY TODAY...TO AROUND 5 TO 7
FT AND WILL BE SOMEWHAT STEEP WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AT 9 SECONDS.

LATER THIS WEEK...HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC AS THERMAL LOW
PRES BUILDS OVER N CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N
WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 231642 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
937 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THE
LOW CENTER WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY...OTHERWISE
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER BY FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS
MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON...THAT MAY NOT MOVE EAST OF THE
CASCADES UNTIL LATER TODAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE AT THE COAST AND IN THE COAST RANGE...WITH AROUND AN INCH
NEAR TILLAMOOK AND HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH IN THE COAST RANGE.
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LESS IN THE VALLEY...BUT MAY PUSH A HALF INCH IN
THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS MAY START TO BREAK UP BEHIND
IT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY DEVELOPING WITH SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY SHOWERS.
TEMPS TODAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70...DOING SO LATE IN THE DAY.

THE LOW CENTER COMES ONSHORE TONIGHT...AND THE MODELS SHOW PART OF
THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION SWINGING THROUGH OUR NORTHERN ZONES FROM
ABOUT THE COLUMBIA RIVER OR SO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
WITH SOME POSSIBLY STEADY RAIN AND ANOTHER SHOT OF DECENT QPF
AMOUNTS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR THIS IN THE MORNING PACKAGE.

THE LOW MOVES OUT TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CLOUDS IN THE
NORTH FROM ABOUT SALEM SOUTH BEING SLOW TO CLEAR THURSDAY...AND A FEW
SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL
START TO REBOUND AND GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

AN UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH QUITE FLAT...WILL SLOWLY START TO MOVE IN
FRIDAY FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER WITH SOME MORNING
CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL FINALLY APPROACH 80 AGAIN.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS AMPLIFYING AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS
WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM AND LOCATION.  -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING AS A
LINE OF RAIN MOVES INTO THE VALLEY WITH CIGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2500
FT AND 3500 FT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR IN THE COMING HOURS AS
RAIN PUSHES THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH LOCAL IFR AT TIMES WITH HEAVIER
RAIN. MEANWHILE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THOUGH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PINPOINT TIMING OR LOCATION
IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS PROBABLY REMAIN MVFR
OR WORSE ALONG THE COAST WED NIGHT...THOUGH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR STARTING AROUND 03Z WED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
WITH CIGS AROUND 3000-3500 FT. NEXT LINE OF RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND
16Z WITH CONTINUED RAIN AT TIMES TODAY. ABOUT 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING THE TERMINAL OR OPS AREA TODAY THROUGH 03Z.
CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRES SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WATERS AND INCREASED PRES GRADIENT. AS A
RESULT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OREGON WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. PROBABLY WILL SEE
SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25 KT S OF CASCADE HEAD AND OVER THE
CENTRAL OREGON INNER WATERS...BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO EXTEND
ADVISORY SOUTHWARD. SEAS MAY BUILD SLIGHTLY TODAY...TO AROUND 5 TO 7
FT AND WILL BE SOMEWHAT STEEP WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AT 9 SECONDS.

LATER THIS WEEK...HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC AS THERMAL LOW
PRES BUILDS OVER N CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N
WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 231642 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
937 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THE
LOW CENTER WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY...OTHERWISE
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER BY FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS
MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON...THAT MAY NOT MOVE EAST OF THE
CASCADES UNTIL LATER TODAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE AT THE COAST AND IN THE COAST RANGE...WITH AROUND AN INCH
NEAR TILLAMOOK AND HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH IN THE COAST RANGE.
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LESS IN THE VALLEY...BUT MAY PUSH A HALF INCH IN
THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS MAY START TO BREAK UP BEHIND
IT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY DEVELOPING WITH SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY SHOWERS.
TEMPS TODAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70...DOING SO LATE IN THE DAY.

THE LOW CENTER COMES ONSHORE TONIGHT...AND THE MODELS SHOW PART OF
THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION SWINGING THROUGH OUR NORTHERN ZONES FROM
ABOUT THE COLUMBIA RIVER OR SO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
WITH SOME POSSIBLY STEADY RAIN AND ANOTHER SHOT OF DECENT QPF
AMOUNTS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR THIS IN THE MORNING PACKAGE.

THE LOW MOVES OUT TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CLOUDS IN THE
NORTH FROM ABOUT SALEM SOUTH BEING SLOW TO CLEAR THURSDAY...AND A FEW
SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL
START TO REBOUND AND GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

AN UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH QUITE FLAT...WILL SLOWLY START TO MOVE IN
FRIDAY FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER WITH SOME MORNING
CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL FINALLY APPROACH 80 AGAIN.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS AMPLIFYING AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS
WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM AND LOCATION.  -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING AS A
LINE OF RAIN MOVES INTO THE VALLEY WITH CIGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2500
FT AND 3500 FT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR IN THE COMING HOURS AS
RAIN PUSHES THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH LOCAL IFR AT TIMES WITH HEAVIER
RAIN. MEANWHILE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THOUGH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PINPOINT TIMING OR LOCATION
IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS PROBABLY REMAIN MVFR
OR WORSE ALONG THE COAST WED NIGHT...THOUGH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR STARTING AROUND 03Z WED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
WITH CIGS AROUND 3000-3500 FT. NEXT LINE OF RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND
16Z WITH CONTINUED RAIN AT TIMES TODAY. ABOUT 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING THE TERMINAL OR OPS AREA TODAY THROUGH 03Z.
CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRES SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WATERS AND INCREASED PRES GRADIENT. AS A
RESULT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OREGON WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. PROBABLY WILL SEE
SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25 KT S OF CASCADE HEAD AND OVER THE
CENTRAL OREGON INNER WATERS...BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO EXTEND
ADVISORY SOUTHWARD. SEAS MAY BUILD SLIGHTLY TODAY...TO AROUND 5 TO 7
FT AND WILL BE SOMEWHAT STEEP WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AT 9 SECONDS.

LATER THIS WEEK...HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC AS THERMAL LOW
PRES BUILDS OVER N CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N
WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 231642 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
937 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THE
LOW CENTER WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY...OTHERWISE
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER BY FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS
MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON...THAT MAY NOT MOVE EAST OF THE
CASCADES UNTIL LATER TODAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE AT THE COAST AND IN THE COAST RANGE...WITH AROUND AN INCH
NEAR TILLAMOOK AND HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH IN THE COAST RANGE.
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LESS IN THE VALLEY...BUT MAY PUSH A HALF INCH IN
THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS MAY START TO BREAK UP BEHIND
IT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY DEVELOPING WITH SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY SHOWERS.
TEMPS TODAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70...DOING SO LATE IN THE DAY.

THE LOW CENTER COMES ONSHORE TONIGHT...AND THE MODELS SHOW PART OF
THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION SWINGING THROUGH OUR NORTHERN ZONES FROM
ABOUT THE COLUMBIA RIVER OR SO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
WITH SOME POSSIBLY STEADY RAIN AND ANOTHER SHOT OF DECENT QPF
AMOUNTS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR THIS IN THE MORNING PACKAGE.

THE LOW MOVES OUT TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CLOUDS IN THE
NORTH FROM ABOUT SALEM SOUTH BEING SLOW TO CLEAR THURSDAY...AND A FEW
SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL
START TO REBOUND AND GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

AN UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH QUITE FLAT...WILL SLOWLY START TO MOVE IN
FRIDAY FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER WITH SOME MORNING
CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL FINALLY APPROACH 80 AGAIN.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS AMPLIFYING AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS
WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM AND LOCATION.  -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING AS A
LINE OF RAIN MOVES INTO THE VALLEY WITH CIGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2500
FT AND 3500 FT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR IN THE COMING HOURS AS
RAIN PUSHES THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH LOCAL IFR AT TIMES WITH HEAVIER
RAIN. MEANWHILE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THOUGH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PINPOINT TIMING OR LOCATION
IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS PROBABLY REMAIN MVFR
OR WORSE ALONG THE COAST WED NIGHT...THOUGH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR STARTING AROUND 03Z WED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
WITH CIGS AROUND 3000-3500 FT. NEXT LINE OF RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND
16Z WITH CONTINUED RAIN AT TIMES TODAY. ABOUT 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING THE TERMINAL OR OPS AREA TODAY THROUGH 03Z.
CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRES SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WATERS AND INCREASED PRES GRADIENT. AS A
RESULT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OREGON WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. PROBABLY WILL SEE
SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25 KT S OF CASCADE HEAD AND OVER THE
CENTRAL OREGON INNER WATERS...BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO EXTEND
ADVISORY SOUTHWARD. SEAS MAY BUILD SLIGHTLY TODAY...TO AROUND 5 TO 7
FT AND WILL BE SOMEWHAT STEEP WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AT 9 SECONDS.

LATER THIS WEEK...HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC AS THERMAL LOW
PRES BUILDS OVER N CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N
WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 231637
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
937 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THE
LOW CENTER WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY...OTHERWISE
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER BY FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS
MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON...THAT MAY NOT MOVE EAST OF THE
CASCADES UNTIL LATER TODAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE AT THE COAST AND IN THE COAST RANGE...WITH AROUND AN INCH
NEAR TILLAMOOK AND HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH IN THE COAST RANGE.
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LESS IN THE VALLEY...BUT MAY PUSH A HALF INCH IN
THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS MAY START TO BREAK UP BEHIND
IT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY DEVELOPING WITH SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY SHOWERS.
TEMPS TODAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70...DOING SO LATE IN THE DAY.

THE LOW CENTER COMES ONSHORE TONIGHT...AND THE MODELS SHOW PART OF
THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION SWINGING THROUGH OUR NORTHERN ZONES FROM
ABOUT THE COLUMBIA RIVER OR SO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
WITH SOME POSSIBLY STEADY RAIN AND ANOTHER SHOT OF DECENT QPF
AMOUNTS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR THIS IN THE MORNING PACKAGE.

THE LOW MOVES OUT TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CLOUDS IN THE
NORTH FROM ABOUT SALEM SOUTH BEING SLOW TO CLEAR THURSDAY...AND A FEW
SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL
START TO REBOUND AND GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

AN UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH QUITE FLAT...WILL SLOWLY START TO MOVE IN
FRIDAY FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER WITH SOME MORNING
CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL FINALLY APPROACH 80 AGAIN.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS AMPLIFYING AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS
WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM AND LOCATION.  -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING AS A
LINE OF RAIN MOVES INTO THE VALLEY WITH CIGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2500
FT AND 3500 FT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR IN THE COMING HOURS AS
RAIN PUSHES THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH LOCAL IFR AT TIMES WITH HEAVIER
RAIN. MEANWHILE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THOUGH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PINPOINT TIMING OR LOCATION
IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS PROBABLY REMAIN MVFR
OR WORSE ALONG THE COAST WED NIGHT...THOUGH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR STARTING AROUND 03Z WED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
WITH CIGS AROUND 3000-3500 FT. NEXT LINE OF RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND
16Z WITH CONTINUED RAIN AT TIMES TODAY. ABOUT 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING THE TERMINAL OR OPS AREA TODAY THROUGH 03Z.
CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRES SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WATERS AND INCREASED PRES GRADIENT. AS A
RESULT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OREGON WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. PROBABLY WILL SEE
SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25 KT S OF CASCADE HEAD AND OVER THE
CENTRAL OREGON INNER WATERS...BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO EXTEND
ADVISORY SOUTHWARD. SEAS MAY BUILD SLIGHTLY TODAY...TO AROUND 5 TO 7
FT AND WILL BE SOMEWHAT STEEP WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AT 9 SECONDS.

LATER THIS WEEK...HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC AS THERMAL LOW
PRES BUILDS OVER N CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N
WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 231637
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
937 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THE
LOW CENTER WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY...OTHERWISE
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER BY FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS
MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON...THAT MAY NOT MOVE EAST OF THE
CASCADES UNTIL LATER TODAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE AT THE COAST AND IN THE COAST RANGE...WITH AROUND AN INCH
NEAR TILLAMOOK AND HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH IN THE COAST RANGE.
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LESS IN THE VALLEY...BUT MAY PUSH A HALF INCH IN
THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS MAY START TO BREAK UP BEHIND
IT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY DEVELOPING WITH SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY SHOWERS.
TEMPS TODAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70...DOING SO LATE IN THE DAY.

THE LOW CENTER COMES ONSHORE TONIGHT...AND THE MODELS SHOW PART OF
THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION SWINGING THROUGH OUR NORTHERN ZONES FROM
ABOUT THE COLUMBIA RIVER OR SO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
WITH SOME POSSIBLY STEADY RAIN AND ANOTHER SHOT OF DECENT QPF
AMOUNTS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR THIS IN THE MORNING PACKAGE.

THE LOW MOVES OUT TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CLOUDS IN THE
NORTH FROM ABOUT SALEM SOUTH BEING SLOW TO CLEAR THURSDAY...AND A FEW
SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL
START TO REBOUND AND GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

AN UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH QUITE FLAT...WILL SLOWLY START TO MOVE IN
FRIDAY FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER WITH SOME MORNING
CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL FINALLY APPROACH 80 AGAIN.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS AMPLIFYING AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS
WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM AND LOCATION.  -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING AS A
LINE OF RAIN MOVES INTO THE VALLEY WITH CIGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2500
FT AND 3500 FT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR IN THE COMING HOURS AS
RAIN PUSHES THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH LOCAL IFR AT TIMES WITH HEAVIER
RAIN. MEANWHILE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THOUGH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PINPOINT TIMING OR LOCATION
IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS PROBABLY REMAIN MVFR
OR WORSE ALONG THE COAST WED NIGHT...THOUGH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR STARTING AROUND 03Z WED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
WITH CIGS AROUND 3000-3500 FT. NEXT LINE OF RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND
16Z WITH CONTINUED RAIN AT TIMES TODAY. ABOUT 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING THE TERMINAL OR OPS AREA TODAY THROUGH 03Z.
CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRES SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WATERS AND INCREASED PRES GRADIENT. AS A
RESULT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OREGON WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. PROBABLY WILL SEE
SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25 KT S OF CASCADE HEAD AND OVER THE
CENTRAL OREGON INNER WATERS...BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO EXTEND
ADVISORY SOUTHWARD. SEAS MAY BUILD SLIGHTLY TODAY...TO AROUND 5 TO 7
FT AND WILL BE SOMEWHAT STEEP WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AT 9 SECONDS.

LATER THIS WEEK...HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC AS THERMAL LOW
PRES BUILDS OVER N CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N
WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 231637
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
937 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THE
LOW CENTER WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY...OTHERWISE
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER BY FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS
MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON...THAT MAY NOT MOVE EAST OF THE
CASCADES UNTIL LATER TODAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE AT THE COAST AND IN THE COAST RANGE...WITH AROUND AN INCH
NEAR TILLAMOOK AND HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH IN THE COAST RANGE.
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LESS IN THE VALLEY...BUT MAY PUSH A HALF INCH IN
THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS MAY START TO BREAK UP BEHIND
IT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY DEVELOPING WITH SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY SHOWERS.
TEMPS TODAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70...DOING SO LATE IN THE DAY.

THE LOW CENTER COMES ONSHORE TONIGHT...AND THE MODELS SHOW PART OF
THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION SWINGING THROUGH OUR NORTHERN ZONES FROM
ABOUT THE COLUMBIA RIVER OR SO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
WITH SOME POSSIBLY STEADY RAIN AND ANOTHER SHOT OF DECENT QPF
AMOUNTS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR THIS IN THE MORNING PACKAGE.

THE LOW MOVES OUT TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CLOUDS IN THE
NORTH FROM ABOUT SALEM SOUTH BEING SLOW TO CLEAR THURSDAY...AND A FEW
SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL
START TO REBOUND AND GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

AN UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH QUITE FLAT...WILL SLOWLY START TO MOVE IN
FRIDAY FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER WITH SOME MORNING
CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL FINALLY APPROACH 80 AGAIN.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS AMPLIFYING AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS
WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM AND LOCATION.  -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING AS A
LINE OF RAIN MOVES INTO THE VALLEY WITH CIGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2500
FT AND 3500 FT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR IN THE COMING HOURS AS
RAIN PUSHES THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH LOCAL IFR AT TIMES WITH HEAVIER
RAIN. MEANWHILE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THOUGH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PINPOINT TIMING OR LOCATION
IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS PROBABLY REMAIN MVFR
OR WORSE ALONG THE COAST WED NIGHT...THOUGH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR STARTING AROUND 03Z WED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
WITH CIGS AROUND 3000-3500 FT. NEXT LINE OF RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND
16Z WITH CONTINUED RAIN AT TIMES TODAY. ABOUT 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING THE TERMINAL OR OPS AREA TODAY THROUGH 03Z.
CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRES SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WATERS AND INCREASED PRES GRADIENT. AS A
RESULT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OREGON WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. PROBABLY WILL SEE
SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25 KT S OF CASCADE HEAD AND OVER THE
CENTRAL OREGON INNER WATERS...BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO EXTEND
ADVISORY SOUTHWARD. SEAS MAY BUILD SLIGHTLY TODAY...TO AROUND 5 TO 7
FT AND WILL BE SOMEWHAT STEEP WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AT 9 SECONDS.

LATER THIS WEEK...HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC AS THERMAL LOW
PRES BUILDS OVER N CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N
WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 231637
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
937 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THE
LOW CENTER WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY...OTHERWISE
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER BY FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS
MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON...THAT MAY NOT MOVE EAST OF THE
CASCADES UNTIL LATER TODAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE AT THE COAST AND IN THE COAST RANGE...WITH AROUND AN INCH
NEAR TILLAMOOK AND HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH IN THE COAST RANGE.
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LESS IN THE VALLEY...BUT MAY PUSH A HALF INCH IN
THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS MAY START TO BREAK UP BEHIND
IT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY DEVELOPING WITH SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY SHOWERS.
TEMPS TODAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70...DOING SO LATE IN THE DAY.

THE LOW CENTER COMES ONSHORE TONIGHT...AND THE MODELS SHOW PART OF
THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION SWINGING THROUGH OUR NORTHERN ZONES FROM
ABOUT THE COLUMBIA RIVER OR SO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
WITH SOME POSSIBLY STEADY RAIN AND ANOTHER SHOT OF DECENT QPF
AMOUNTS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR THIS IN THE MORNING PACKAGE.

THE LOW MOVES OUT TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CLOUDS IN THE
NORTH FROM ABOUT SALEM SOUTH BEING SLOW TO CLEAR THURSDAY...AND A FEW
SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL
START TO REBOUND AND GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

AN UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH QUITE FLAT...WILL SLOWLY START TO MOVE IN
FRIDAY FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER WITH SOME MORNING
CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL FINALLY APPROACH 80 AGAIN.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS AMPLIFYING AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS
WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM AND LOCATION.  -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING AS A
LINE OF RAIN MOVES INTO THE VALLEY WITH CIGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2500
FT AND 3500 FT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR IN THE COMING HOURS AS
RAIN PUSHES THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH LOCAL IFR AT TIMES WITH HEAVIER
RAIN. MEANWHILE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THOUGH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PINPOINT TIMING OR LOCATION
IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS PROBABLY REMAIN MVFR
OR WORSE ALONG THE COAST WED NIGHT...THOUGH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR STARTING AROUND 03Z WED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
WITH CIGS AROUND 3000-3500 FT. NEXT LINE OF RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND
16Z WITH CONTINUED RAIN AT TIMES TODAY. ABOUT 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING THE TERMINAL OR OPS AREA TODAY THROUGH 03Z.
CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRES SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WATERS AND INCREASED PRES GRADIENT. AS A
RESULT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OREGON WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. PROBABLY WILL SEE
SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25 KT S OF CASCADE HEAD AND OVER THE
CENTRAL OREGON INNER WATERS...BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO EXTEND
ADVISORY SOUTHWARD. SEAS MAY BUILD SLIGHTLY TODAY...TO AROUND 5 TO 7
FT AND WILL BE SOMEWHAT STEEP WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AT 9 SECONDS.

LATER THIS WEEK...HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC AS THERMAL LOW
PRES BUILDS OVER N CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N
WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 231544
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT
MOVES INLAND FROM THE OFFSHORE WATERS. RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND AT THE COAST. SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR SUNNY WARM WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A 5590 METER UPPER LOW IS OVER THE WASHINGTON OFFSHORE
WATERS NEAR 47N/128W RESULTING IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE...DIFFLUENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AS EXPECTED AND CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. THE THUNDERSTORMS STARTED AROUND 4 AM THIS MORNING AND HAVE
OCCURRED MAINLY IN A LINE FROM WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES...BUT THE LINE IS
WIDE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SEATTLE AND MUCH OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION.
MORE THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN SOME AREAS --
MAINLY THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AND OVER THE NORTH CASCADES.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST TODAY...THEN MOVE
INLAND THIS EVENING AND LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA LATE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH 24-HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH OVER
MOST OF THE WESTERN WASHINGTON LOWLANDS AND 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS
COMMON OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW NOTES...THIS
WILL BE ONE OF THE WETTEST JULY DAYS IN SEATTLE WEATHER RECORDS. THE
SNOW LEVEL IS AROUND 10000 FT THIS MORNING AND IT WILL FALL TO
AROUND 8000 FT TONIGHT.

THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THE
LIGHTING THAT OCCURS IN THE MEANTIME WILL BE MAINLY IN THE CASCADES.
THERE IS NO CONVECTION DEVELOPING UPSTREAM YET...AND THERE SHOULD BE
A SHORT-TERM LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE YET FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE AIR MASS BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE...INCREASING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT... AND A SMALL JET JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST AS IT
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL VEER TO WESTERLY AGAIN THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THE AIR MASS WILL STABILIZE AND BEGIN
TO DRY...BUT MOIST ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND A PUGET
SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP. ON THE WHOLE SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE THURSDAY...WITH SOME SUNBREAKS LIKELY OVER THE
LOWLANDS.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT UPPER HEIGHTS WILL START TO RISE AS A RIDGE
BUILDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
HIGH. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MARINE LAYER CLOUDS TO START THE
DAY...BUT THEY WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AT LEAST OVER THE
INTERIOR.   MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...HERE IS THE LONG TERM SECTION FROM THE EARLY MORNING
FORECAST DISCUSSION -- UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE
NRN ROCKIES AND INTERIOR PAC NW. MODELS SHOW RISING HEIGHTS OVER WRN
WA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS FAR ENOUGH INLAND
TO PREVENT ANY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW FROM DEVELOPING. INSTEAD...IT
LOOKS LIKE A NICE GRADUAL WARM UP TO THE 80S. SOME MODELS SUCH AS
THE ECMWF INDICATE THE RIDGE COULD EXPAND FAR ENOUGH WEST TO INDUCE
A THERMAL LOW OVER WRN WA AND EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS IS
RATHER UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT BUT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES APPEAR
LIKELY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. MERCER

&&

.CLIMATE...THERE HAVE BEEN 23 JULY DAYS WITH 0.50 INCHES OF RAIN OR
MORE SINCE RECORDS STARTED AT SEA-TAC IN 1945. ONLY 3 OF THOSE DAYS
HAVE BEEN SINCE 2000...0.65 INCHES ON JULY 16TH 2001....0.60 INCHES
ON JULY 20TH 2012 AND 0.58 INCHES ON JULY 7TH 2002. THE RECORD FOR
THE WETTEST JULY DAY AT SEA-TAC IS 0.85 INCHES ON JULY 13TH 1981.
THE WETTEST JULY DAY ON RECORD IN SEATTLE IS 0.98 INCHES ON JULY 5TH
1897 WHEN RECORDS WERE KEPT AT THE FEDERAL BUILDING DOWNTOWN. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL LOW ABOUT 150 NM WEST OF KHQM AT 18Z WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY THEN NORTHEAST TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT...THEN STRONG NORTHWEST LATE. AIR MASS
UNSTABLE AND MOIST ALL LEVELS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SOLID MASS OF CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON. METARS SHOWS MULTIPLE CLOUD LEVELS AND VARIOUS
VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
SECTIONS MAINLY NEAR THE CASCADES BUT ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. SOME
IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BUT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
WILL PREVENT CEILINGS FROM IMPROVING MUCH UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

KSEA...VARIABLE CEILINGS 1000-3000 FEET LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT
IN THE CEILINGS TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHERLY
10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CHB

&&

.MARINE...MODELS SHOW A SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING
WEAKENING AND MOVING INLAND TONIGHT. IT SHOULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH
PUNCH TO BRING MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THIS EVENING RESULTING IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHWEST OR WEST WINDS IN SEVERAL ZONES INCLUDING
PUGET SOUND. ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES STRONGER THURSDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
INDICATED 20-30 KT WESTERLIES IN THE STRAIT BUT GALES SEEM POSSIBLE
THERE ON THURSDAY.

AFTER THURSDAY THE NORMAL SUMMER PATTERN RETURNS WITH ONSHORE FLOW
STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES IN THE STRAIT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COAST...CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT...
      NORTHERN INLAND WATERS....PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL...
      ADMIRALTY INLET.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 231544
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT
MOVES INLAND FROM THE OFFSHORE WATERS. RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND AT THE COAST. SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR SUNNY WARM WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A 5590 METER UPPER LOW IS OVER THE WASHINGTON OFFSHORE
WATERS NEAR 47N/128W RESULTING IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE...DIFFLUENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AS EXPECTED AND CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. THE THUNDERSTORMS STARTED AROUND 4 AM THIS MORNING AND HAVE
OCCURRED MAINLY IN A LINE FROM WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES...BUT THE LINE IS
WIDE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SEATTLE AND MUCH OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION.
MORE THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN SOME AREAS --
MAINLY THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AND OVER THE NORTH CASCADES.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST TODAY...THEN MOVE
INLAND THIS EVENING AND LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA LATE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH 24-HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH OVER
MOST OF THE WESTERN WASHINGTON LOWLANDS AND 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS
COMMON OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW NOTES...THIS
WILL BE ONE OF THE WETTEST JULY DAYS IN SEATTLE WEATHER RECORDS. THE
SNOW LEVEL IS AROUND 10000 FT THIS MORNING AND IT WILL FALL TO
AROUND 8000 FT TONIGHT.

THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THE
LIGHTING THAT OCCURS IN THE MEANTIME WILL BE MAINLY IN THE CASCADES.
THERE IS NO CONVECTION DEVELOPING UPSTREAM YET...AND THERE SHOULD BE
A SHORT-TERM LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE YET FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE AIR MASS BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE...INCREASING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT... AND A SMALL JET JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST AS IT
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL VEER TO WESTERLY AGAIN THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THE AIR MASS WILL STABILIZE AND BEGIN
TO DRY...BUT MOIST ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND A PUGET
SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP. ON THE WHOLE SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE THURSDAY...WITH SOME SUNBREAKS LIKELY OVER THE
LOWLANDS.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT UPPER HEIGHTS WILL START TO RISE AS A RIDGE
BUILDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
HIGH. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MARINE LAYER CLOUDS TO START THE
DAY...BUT THEY WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AT LEAST OVER THE
INTERIOR.   MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...HERE IS THE LONG TERM SECTION FROM THE EARLY MORNING
FORECAST DISCUSSION -- UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE
NRN ROCKIES AND INTERIOR PAC NW. MODELS SHOW RISING HEIGHTS OVER WRN
WA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS FAR ENOUGH INLAND
TO PREVENT ANY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW FROM DEVELOPING. INSTEAD...IT
LOOKS LIKE A NICE GRADUAL WARM UP TO THE 80S. SOME MODELS SUCH AS
THE ECMWF INDICATE THE RIDGE COULD EXPAND FAR ENOUGH WEST TO INDUCE
A THERMAL LOW OVER WRN WA AND EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS IS
RATHER UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT BUT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES APPEAR
LIKELY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. MERCER

&&

.CLIMATE...THERE HAVE BEEN 23 JULY DAYS WITH 0.50 INCHES OF RAIN OR
MORE SINCE RECORDS STARTED AT SEA-TAC IN 1945. ONLY 3 OF THOSE DAYS
HAVE BEEN SINCE 2000...0.65 INCHES ON JULY 16TH 2001....0.60 INCHES
ON JULY 20TH 2012 AND 0.58 INCHES ON JULY 7TH 2002. THE RECORD FOR
THE WETTEST JULY DAY AT SEA-TAC IS 0.85 INCHES ON JULY 13TH 1981.
THE WETTEST JULY DAY ON RECORD IN SEATTLE IS 0.98 INCHES ON JULY 5TH
1897 WHEN RECORDS WERE KEPT AT THE FEDERAL BUILDING DOWNTOWN. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL LOW ABOUT 150 NM WEST OF KHQM AT 18Z WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY THEN NORTHEAST TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT...THEN STRONG NORTHWEST LATE. AIR MASS
UNSTABLE AND MOIST ALL LEVELS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SOLID MASS OF CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON. METARS SHOWS MULTIPLE CLOUD LEVELS AND VARIOUS
VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
SECTIONS MAINLY NEAR THE CASCADES BUT ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. SOME
IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BUT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
WILL PREVENT CEILINGS FROM IMPROVING MUCH UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

KSEA...VARIABLE CEILINGS 1000-3000 FEET LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT
IN THE CEILINGS TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHERLY
10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CHB

&&

.MARINE...MODELS SHOW A SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING
WEAKENING AND MOVING INLAND TONIGHT. IT SHOULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH
PUNCH TO BRING MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THIS EVENING RESULTING IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHWEST OR WEST WINDS IN SEVERAL ZONES INCLUDING
PUGET SOUND. ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES STRONGER THURSDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
INDICATED 20-30 KT WESTERLIES IN THE STRAIT BUT GALES SEEM POSSIBLE
THERE ON THURSDAY.

AFTER THURSDAY THE NORMAL SUMMER PATTERN RETURNS WITH ONSHORE FLOW
STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES IN THE STRAIT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COAST...CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT...
      NORTHERN INLAND WATERS....PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL...
      ADMIRALTY INLET.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 231544
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT
MOVES INLAND FROM THE OFFSHORE WATERS. RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND AT THE COAST. SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR SUNNY WARM WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A 5590 METER UPPER LOW IS OVER THE WASHINGTON OFFSHORE
WATERS NEAR 47N/128W RESULTING IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE...DIFFLUENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AS EXPECTED AND CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. THE THUNDERSTORMS STARTED AROUND 4 AM THIS MORNING AND HAVE
OCCURRED MAINLY IN A LINE FROM WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES...BUT THE LINE IS
WIDE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SEATTLE AND MUCH OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION.
MORE THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN SOME AREAS --
MAINLY THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AND OVER THE NORTH CASCADES.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST TODAY...THEN MOVE
INLAND THIS EVENING AND LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA LATE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH 24-HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH OVER
MOST OF THE WESTERN WASHINGTON LOWLANDS AND 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS
COMMON OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW NOTES...THIS
WILL BE ONE OF THE WETTEST JULY DAYS IN SEATTLE WEATHER RECORDS. THE
SNOW LEVEL IS AROUND 10000 FT THIS MORNING AND IT WILL FALL TO
AROUND 8000 FT TONIGHT.

THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THE
LIGHTING THAT OCCURS IN THE MEANTIME WILL BE MAINLY IN THE CASCADES.
THERE IS NO CONVECTION DEVELOPING UPSTREAM YET...AND THERE SHOULD BE
A SHORT-TERM LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE YET FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE AIR MASS BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE...INCREASING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT... AND A SMALL JET JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST AS IT
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL VEER TO WESTERLY AGAIN THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THE AIR MASS WILL STABILIZE AND BEGIN
TO DRY...BUT MOIST ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND A PUGET
SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP. ON THE WHOLE SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE THURSDAY...WITH SOME SUNBREAKS LIKELY OVER THE
LOWLANDS.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT UPPER HEIGHTS WILL START TO RISE AS A RIDGE
BUILDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
HIGH. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MARINE LAYER CLOUDS TO START THE
DAY...BUT THEY WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AT LEAST OVER THE
INTERIOR.   MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...HERE IS THE LONG TERM SECTION FROM THE EARLY MORNING
FORECAST DISCUSSION -- UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE
NRN ROCKIES AND INTERIOR PAC NW. MODELS SHOW RISING HEIGHTS OVER WRN
WA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS FAR ENOUGH INLAND
TO PREVENT ANY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW FROM DEVELOPING. INSTEAD...IT
LOOKS LIKE A NICE GRADUAL WARM UP TO THE 80S. SOME MODELS SUCH AS
THE ECMWF INDICATE THE RIDGE COULD EXPAND FAR ENOUGH WEST TO INDUCE
A THERMAL LOW OVER WRN WA AND EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS IS
RATHER UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT BUT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES APPEAR
LIKELY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. MERCER

&&

.CLIMATE...THERE HAVE BEEN 23 JULY DAYS WITH 0.50 INCHES OF RAIN OR
MORE SINCE RECORDS STARTED AT SEA-TAC IN 1945. ONLY 3 OF THOSE DAYS
HAVE BEEN SINCE 2000...0.65 INCHES ON JULY 16TH 2001....0.60 INCHES
ON JULY 20TH 2012 AND 0.58 INCHES ON JULY 7TH 2002. THE RECORD FOR
THE WETTEST JULY DAY AT SEA-TAC IS 0.85 INCHES ON JULY 13TH 1981.
THE WETTEST JULY DAY ON RECORD IN SEATTLE IS 0.98 INCHES ON JULY 5TH
1897 WHEN RECORDS WERE KEPT AT THE FEDERAL BUILDING DOWNTOWN. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL LOW ABOUT 150 NM WEST OF KHQM AT 18Z WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY THEN NORTHEAST TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT...THEN STRONG NORTHWEST LATE. AIR MASS
UNSTABLE AND MOIST ALL LEVELS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SOLID MASS OF CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON. METARS SHOWS MULTIPLE CLOUD LEVELS AND VARIOUS
VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
SECTIONS MAINLY NEAR THE CASCADES BUT ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. SOME
IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BUT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
WILL PREVENT CEILINGS FROM IMPROVING MUCH UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

KSEA...VARIABLE CEILINGS 1000-3000 FEET LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT
IN THE CEILINGS TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHERLY
10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CHB

&&

.MARINE...MODELS SHOW A SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING
WEAKENING AND MOVING INLAND TONIGHT. IT SHOULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH
PUNCH TO BRING MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THIS EVENING RESULTING IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHWEST OR WEST WINDS IN SEVERAL ZONES INCLUDING
PUGET SOUND. ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES STRONGER THURSDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
INDICATED 20-30 KT WESTERLIES IN THE STRAIT BUT GALES SEEM POSSIBLE
THERE ON THURSDAY.

AFTER THURSDAY THE NORMAL SUMMER PATTERN RETURNS WITH ONSHORE FLOW
STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES IN THE STRAIT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COAST...CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT...
      NORTHERN INLAND WATERS....PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL...
      ADMIRALTY INLET.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 231544
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT
MOVES INLAND FROM THE OFFSHORE WATERS. RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND AT THE COAST. SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR SUNNY WARM WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A 5590 METER UPPER LOW IS OVER THE WASHINGTON OFFSHORE
WATERS NEAR 47N/128W RESULTING IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE...DIFFLUENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AS EXPECTED AND CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. THE THUNDERSTORMS STARTED AROUND 4 AM THIS MORNING AND HAVE
OCCURRED MAINLY IN A LINE FROM WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES...BUT THE LINE IS
WIDE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SEATTLE AND MUCH OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION.
MORE THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN SOME AREAS --
MAINLY THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AND OVER THE NORTH CASCADES.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST TODAY...THEN MOVE
INLAND THIS EVENING AND LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA LATE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH 24-HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH OVER
MOST OF THE WESTERN WASHINGTON LOWLANDS AND 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS
COMMON OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW NOTES...THIS
WILL BE ONE OF THE WETTEST JULY DAYS IN SEATTLE WEATHER RECORDS. THE
SNOW LEVEL IS AROUND 10000 FT THIS MORNING AND IT WILL FALL TO
AROUND 8000 FT TONIGHT.

THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THE
LIGHTING THAT OCCURS IN THE MEANTIME WILL BE MAINLY IN THE CASCADES.
THERE IS NO CONVECTION DEVELOPING UPSTREAM YET...AND THERE SHOULD BE
A SHORT-TERM LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE YET FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE AIR MASS BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE...INCREASING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT... AND A SMALL JET JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST AS IT
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL VEER TO WESTERLY AGAIN THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THE AIR MASS WILL STABILIZE AND BEGIN
TO DRY...BUT MOIST ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND A PUGET
SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP. ON THE WHOLE SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE THURSDAY...WITH SOME SUNBREAKS LIKELY OVER THE
LOWLANDS.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT UPPER HEIGHTS WILL START TO RISE AS A RIDGE
BUILDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
HIGH. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MARINE LAYER CLOUDS TO START THE
DAY...BUT THEY WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AT LEAST OVER THE
INTERIOR.   MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...HERE IS THE LONG TERM SECTION FROM THE EARLY MORNING
FORECAST DISCUSSION -- UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE
NRN ROCKIES AND INTERIOR PAC NW. MODELS SHOW RISING HEIGHTS OVER WRN
WA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS FAR ENOUGH INLAND
TO PREVENT ANY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW FROM DEVELOPING. INSTEAD...IT
LOOKS LIKE A NICE GRADUAL WARM UP TO THE 80S. SOME MODELS SUCH AS
THE ECMWF INDICATE THE RIDGE COULD EXPAND FAR ENOUGH WEST TO INDUCE
A THERMAL LOW OVER WRN WA AND EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS IS
RATHER UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT BUT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES APPEAR
LIKELY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. MERCER

&&

.CLIMATE...THERE HAVE BEEN 23 JULY DAYS WITH 0.50 INCHES OF RAIN OR
MORE SINCE RECORDS STARTED AT SEA-TAC IN 1945. ONLY 3 OF THOSE DAYS
HAVE BEEN SINCE 2000...0.65 INCHES ON JULY 16TH 2001....0.60 INCHES
ON JULY 20TH 2012 AND 0.58 INCHES ON JULY 7TH 2002. THE RECORD FOR
THE WETTEST JULY DAY AT SEA-TAC IS 0.85 INCHES ON JULY 13TH 1981.
THE WETTEST JULY DAY ON RECORD IN SEATTLE IS 0.98 INCHES ON JULY 5TH
1897 WHEN RECORDS WERE KEPT AT THE FEDERAL BUILDING DOWNTOWN. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL LOW ABOUT 150 NM WEST OF KHQM AT 18Z WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY THEN NORTHEAST TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT...THEN STRONG NORTHWEST LATE. AIR MASS
UNSTABLE AND MOIST ALL LEVELS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SOLID MASS OF CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON. METARS SHOWS MULTIPLE CLOUD LEVELS AND VARIOUS
VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
SECTIONS MAINLY NEAR THE CASCADES BUT ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. SOME
IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BUT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
WILL PREVENT CEILINGS FROM IMPROVING MUCH UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

KSEA...VARIABLE CEILINGS 1000-3000 FEET LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT
IN THE CEILINGS TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHERLY
10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CHB

&&

.MARINE...MODELS SHOW A SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING
WEAKENING AND MOVING INLAND TONIGHT. IT SHOULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH
PUNCH TO BRING MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THIS EVENING RESULTING IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHWEST OR WEST WINDS IN SEVERAL ZONES INCLUDING
PUGET SOUND. ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES STRONGER THURSDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
INDICATED 20-30 KT WESTERLIES IN THE STRAIT BUT GALES SEEM POSSIBLE
THERE ON THURSDAY.

AFTER THURSDAY THE NORMAL SUMMER PATTERN RETURNS WITH ONSHORE FLOW
STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES IN THE STRAIT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COAST...CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT...
      NORTHERN INLAND WATERS....PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL...
      ADMIRALTY INLET.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KOTX 231141
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
440 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm system will move through the region today, bringing
the potential for thunderstorms and heavy rain. Cool and windy
weather is expected for Thursday. Temperatures will rebound by the
weekend and be accompanied by dry conditions. Hot weather will
return to the area on Sunday and early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight: A strong storm system comes into the region,
with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low pressure is
centered off the Washington coast this morning and is forecast to
reach NE WA/SE BC by Thursday morning. Ahead of it is a moist
southwest flow, with PWATs around 1 inch (or about 180% of normal)
and surface dew points in the 50s to low 60s. This morning showers
and thunderstorms, associated with a mid-level disturbance and
slug of mid-level instability that came in from Oregon, will
continue to lift northward and out into BC and MT. This will leave
some lull in the bigger precipitation threat from around 15-20Z
for a good chunk of the region. However other showers are expected
to continue near the Cascades with the offshore low approaching
and the next shortwave pivoting around it.

Then this afternoon and evening the next round of showers and
thunderstorms develops. As temperatures warm into the 70s and
80s the convective instability blossoms: SBCAPE values from 18
and 00Z rise to between 200 and 1000 J/kg. The best of it centered
along and north and east of a line from Mazama to Othello. In that
region models paint the core of it across the northeast mountains
south into the Palouse and across the north and central Panhandle.
So going into the afternoon a theta-e ridge slips in from the
south, while the cold front and supporting upper low push into
the Cascades and east toward the Idaho Panhandle by this evening.
These latter several features would be enough to bring a good
threat of showers and thunderstorms. But the coupling of one jet
streak tracking up from the Great Basin into central Idaho and
second jet streak rounding the upper low, with a fair amount of
diffluence over eastern Washington and north Idaho, makes me even
more confident there is enough lift out there to bring showers
and thunderstorms.

Models still paint some of the higher precipitation amounts along
the cold front and upper low over the Cascades, supporting the
potential for flooding. Hence the flash flood watch remains in
place, especially with concerns in the burn scar areas from this
and the past few summers. The threat of strong to locally severe
thunderstorms also remains over much of eastern WA and north ID
too given the forces of lift, moisture and instability coming
together. With 0-6km bulk shear between 30 to 50kts, storms will
have the potential to be more organized. Looking at forecast
soundings, the CAPE appears to be relatively thin and tall, with
a relatively dry sub-cloud layer. This lends thinking that the
main threat from storms will be hail and gusty winds.

Going into the late evening and overnight the cold front is
pushed east of the region, with the upper low near the WA/BC
border. Some elevated instability lingers across the Canadian
border, petering out southwest toward the Waterville Plateau. Some
weak instability lingers near the Clearwaters too. Thus the
primary shower chances will continue near the Cascade crest,
northern mountains and across Idaho, especially through the early
overnight. The remainder of the area should see things drying out,
with some clearing from the southwest.

The other issue will be winds. Outside of those generated with
thunderstorms, synoptic winds are expected to pick up from the
west-southwest this afternoon and tonight along and behind the
front. By mid to later afternoon winds in the 10 to 20 mph range
will be possible, especially over the east Chelan county, across
the Basin into the Spokane/C`dA area, Palouse and L-C Valley.
Gusts near 30 mph or so will also be possible. Speeds abate some
overnight, but still remain relatively breezy for the time of day.
/J. Cote`

Thursday through Sunday...Model guidance indicates the cold pool
aloft associated with the anomalous upper low will be centered
over the northern reaches of the forecast area as Thursday dawns.
This should promote continued showers...but given the time of day
before appreciable surface based instability can be generated
these lingering showers will be primarily left over rain showers
from the previous evening`s convective activity with only a few
isolated thunderstorms centered mainly over the mountainous
terrain north of the Columbia Basin. Thursday overall will be a
day of general improvement as the offending upper low begins to
move out of the region to the northeast during the afternoon. The
cooler maritime air mass in the wake of the upper low will
manifest itself as much cooler than normal temperatures on
Thursday with generally breezy conditions with gusts to near 30
mph over the exposed terrain of the basin and Cascade gaps.

Friday through Sunday will feature a drying and warming trend as a
mid-summer 4 corners upper level ridge builds into the region. A
general warming trend to back above normal will become noticeable
starting Friday and continuing through the weekend with lighter
winds and a dry and stable air mass precluding any precipitation.
/Fugazzi

Monday through Wednesday: A ridging pattern is expected to be over
the region for this period. This will lead to a dry and warming
trend in the temperatures. The models are in good agreement for
this period with the exception of the GFS showing a shortwave on
Monday morning. The lack of moisture kept the chance of showers
out the forecast. Temperatures are expected to be in the 90s for
the region during this period. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Low pressure off the coast this Wednesday morning will
move inland over the next 24 hours. Isolated showers will be
possible around the TAF sites this morning, but a better threat
of showers and thunderstorms develops this afternoon, first around
EAT near 18-21Z and elsewhere starting between 20-23Z, before the
threat begins to wane after 00Z-06Z from west to east. Some of the
thunderstorms may be strong and isolated severe thunderstorms are
not out of the question. Predominantly VFR conditions are forecast.
Yet heavier storms may produce brief MVFR/IFR cigs/vis, with the
potential for heavy downpours, gusty winds and hail. Aside from
possible winds with thunderstorms, general winds will increase
for this afternoon and evening with sustained speeds between
10-20kts and gusts up to 30kts, before decreasing after 03-06Z.
/J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        83  52  71  51  77  55 /  50  80  20  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  84  53  67  52  76  51 /  50  80  40  10   0   0
Pullman        84  49  69  46  76  44 /  40  70  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       90  58  78  57  84  56 /  40  60  10   0   0   0
Colville       81  51  71  51  80  50 /  60  80  50  10   0   0
Sandpoint      85  51  66  49  73  49 /  50  80  50  10   0   0
Kellogg        85  52  65  50  73  51 /  40  80  40  10   0   0
Moses Lake     83  56  75  57  84  57 /  50  40  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      75  58  73  59  83  61 /  70  40  20   0   0   0
Omak           77  55  74  53  84  54 /  80  60  20  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from 8 AM PDT this morning through this
     evening for East Slopes Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley-
     Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 231141
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
440 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm system will move through the region today, bringing
the potential for thunderstorms and heavy rain. Cool and windy
weather is expected for Thursday. Temperatures will rebound by the
weekend and be accompanied by dry conditions. Hot weather will
return to the area on Sunday and early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight: A strong storm system comes into the region,
with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low pressure is
centered off the Washington coast this morning and is forecast to
reach NE WA/SE BC by Thursday morning. Ahead of it is a moist
southwest flow, with PWATs around 1 inch (or about 180% of normal)
and surface dew points in the 50s to low 60s. This morning showers
and thunderstorms, associated with a mid-level disturbance and
slug of mid-level instability that came in from Oregon, will
continue to lift northward and out into BC and MT. This will leave
some lull in the bigger precipitation threat from around 15-20Z
for a good chunk of the region. However other showers are expected
to continue near the Cascades with the offshore low approaching
and the next shortwave pivoting around it.

Then this afternoon and evening the next round of showers and
thunderstorms develops. As temperatures warm into the 70s and
80s the convective instability blossoms: SBCAPE values from 18
and 00Z rise to between 200 and 1000 J/kg. The best of it centered
along and north and east of a line from Mazama to Othello. In that
region models paint the core of it across the northeast mountains
south into the Palouse and across the north and central Panhandle.
So going into the afternoon a theta-e ridge slips in from the
south, while the cold front and supporting upper low push into
the Cascades and east toward the Idaho Panhandle by this evening.
These latter several features would be enough to bring a good
threat of showers and thunderstorms. But the coupling of one jet
streak tracking up from the Great Basin into central Idaho and
second jet streak rounding the upper low, with a fair amount of
diffluence over eastern Washington and north Idaho, makes me even
more confident there is enough lift out there to bring showers
and thunderstorms.

Models still paint some of the higher precipitation amounts along
the cold front and upper low over the Cascades, supporting the
potential for flooding. Hence the flash flood watch remains in
place, especially with concerns in the burn scar areas from this
and the past few summers. The threat of strong to locally severe
thunderstorms also remains over much of eastern WA and north ID
too given the forces of lift, moisture and instability coming
together. With 0-6km bulk shear between 30 to 50kts, storms will
have the potential to be more organized. Looking at forecast
soundings, the CAPE appears to be relatively thin and tall, with
a relatively dry sub-cloud layer. This lends thinking that the
main threat from storms will be hail and gusty winds.

Going into the late evening and overnight the cold front is
pushed east of the region, with the upper low near the WA/BC
border. Some elevated instability lingers across the Canadian
border, petering out southwest toward the Waterville Plateau. Some
weak instability lingers near the Clearwaters too. Thus the
primary shower chances will continue near the Cascade crest,
northern mountains and across Idaho, especially through the early
overnight. The remainder of the area should see things drying out,
with some clearing from the southwest.

The other issue will be winds. Outside of those generated with
thunderstorms, synoptic winds are expected to pick up from the
west-southwest this afternoon and tonight along and behind the
front. By mid to later afternoon winds in the 10 to 20 mph range
will be possible, especially over the east Chelan county, across
the Basin into the Spokane/C`dA area, Palouse and L-C Valley.
Gusts near 30 mph or so will also be possible. Speeds abate some
overnight, but still remain relatively breezy for the time of day.
/J. Cote`

Thursday through Sunday...Model guidance indicates the cold pool
aloft associated with the anomalous upper low will be centered
over the northern reaches of the forecast area as Thursday dawns.
This should promote continued showers...but given the time of day
before appreciable surface based instability can be generated
these lingering showers will be primarily left over rain showers
from the previous evening`s convective activity with only a few
isolated thunderstorms centered mainly over the mountainous
terrain north of the Columbia Basin. Thursday overall will be a
day of general improvement as the offending upper low begins to
move out of the region to the northeast during the afternoon. The
cooler maritime air mass in the wake of the upper low will
manifest itself as much cooler than normal temperatures on
Thursday with generally breezy conditions with gusts to near 30
mph over the exposed terrain of the basin and Cascade gaps.

Friday through Sunday will feature a drying and warming trend as a
mid-summer 4 corners upper level ridge builds into the region. A
general warming trend to back above normal will become noticeable
starting Friday and continuing through the weekend with lighter
winds and a dry and stable air mass precluding any precipitation.
/Fugazzi

Monday through Wednesday: A ridging pattern is expected to be over
the region for this period. This will lead to a dry and warming
trend in the temperatures. The models are in good agreement for
this period with the exception of the GFS showing a shortwave on
Monday morning. The lack of moisture kept the chance of showers
out the forecast. Temperatures are expected to be in the 90s for
the region during this period. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Low pressure off the coast this Wednesday morning will
move inland over the next 24 hours. Isolated showers will be
possible around the TAF sites this morning, but a better threat
of showers and thunderstorms develops this afternoon, first around
EAT near 18-21Z and elsewhere starting between 20-23Z, before the
threat begins to wane after 00Z-06Z from west to east. Some of the
thunderstorms may be strong and isolated severe thunderstorms are
not out of the question. Predominantly VFR conditions are forecast.
Yet heavier storms may produce brief MVFR/IFR cigs/vis, with the
potential for heavy downpours, gusty winds and hail. Aside from
possible winds with thunderstorms, general winds will increase
for this afternoon and evening with sustained speeds between
10-20kts and gusts up to 30kts, before decreasing after 03-06Z.
/J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        83  52  71  51  77  55 /  50  80  20  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  84  53  67  52  76  51 /  50  80  40  10   0   0
Pullman        84  49  69  46  76  44 /  40  70  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       90  58  78  57  84  56 /  40  60  10   0   0   0
Colville       81  51  71  51  80  50 /  60  80  50  10   0   0
Sandpoint      85  51  66  49  73  49 /  50  80  50  10   0   0
Kellogg        85  52  65  50  73  51 /  40  80  40  10   0   0
Moses Lake     83  56  75  57  84  57 /  50  40  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      75  58  73  59  83  61 /  70  40  20   0   0   0
Omak           77  55  74  53  84  54 /  80  60  20  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from 8 AM PDT this morning through this
     evening for East Slopes Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley-
     Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 231033
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
330 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY. DRIER WEATHER WITH
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES PUSH 90F LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AFTER A QUIET PERIOD OVERNIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ON THE INCREASE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VORT
CENTER OFF THE NRN CA COAST INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW SAGGING
OVER THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS.  REGIONAL RADAR
NETWORK INDICATING TWO SEPARATE BANDS OF PCPN AFFECTING THE AREA. ONE
OVER THE COAST AND COAST RANGE...AND THE OTHER MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN AREA OF THE CWA.  MODELS INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LIFT
MOVING INTO THE AREA TODAY. SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL AND
INCREASED QPF FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

CONVECTION POTENTIAL FOR TODAY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THOUGH LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS IT APPEARS
THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOW.  HOWEVER FOR THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
AS THE UPPER LOW NEARS THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES...MORE TO THE NORTH
PART OF THE CWA THAN THE SOUTH...CONVECTION BECOMES MORE LIKELY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE -3 LIFTED INDEX OVER THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY
AND 0 TO 2 LI OVER THE SOUTH VALLEY. CAPE VALUES AROUND 400-600 J/KG
NORTH AND UNDER 100 J/KG SOUTH.  EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS PEAK AT AROUND
THE -30C LEVEL IN THE NORTH SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY DEEP
CONVECTION FOR HAIL DEVELOPMENT. ALSO OF NOTE IS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE LESS PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORM AND BE LONGER LIVED.  ALSO WITH A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERING JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
COAST THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR SURFACE WINDS IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AND ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO HAVE A BIT MORE OF A S
TO SSE COMPONENT THAN OTHERWISE EXPECTED. COMBINED WITH WSW WINDS OF
25 KT AT 900MB AND 40KT AT 500MB...A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING UPDRAFT
COULD ROTATE BRIEFLY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THIS
ACTUALLY OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE CWA...BUT IT WILL STILL BE
WORTH MONITORING. THE MORE EXPECTED HAZARDS...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL WERE ADDED TO THE THUNDER.

ON THE FIRE FRONT...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE WETTING RAINS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
LIKELY PUSHING AN INCH OF RAIN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED WETTING RAINS ARE LESS LIKELY TOWARDS
LANE COUNTY...BUT CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT AND THU WITH WEAK
RIDGING DEVELOPING SO EXPECT A DRYING AND WARMING TREND HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS
AMPLIFYING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD
MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND LOCATION.  -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
GENERALLY AFTER 12Z AND EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. COULD
SEE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO BEFORE 12Z WITH THE CURRENT BAND OF
SHOWERS AFFECTING COASTAL SITES BUT NOT LIKELY. RAIN AND MVFR
CIGS MOVE INTO THE VALLEY STARTING AROUND 12Z AT EUG AND
SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING. COULD BE SOME IFR VSBY AT ANY
TERMINALS WHICH DO EXPERIENCE A STORM BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH
THAT HAVE NOT INCLUDED THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MORNING
WITH CIGS ABOVE 4000 FT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 12Z WITH
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR. 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING KPDX AND APPROACHES AFTER 12Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z.


&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...KEEPING WINDS 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT TONIGHT
WITH A CONTINUED SMALL W-NW SWELL.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN AREA OF WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE NORTHERN OREGON OFFSHORE
WATERS...BUT WITH SUCH MARGINAL NUMBERS WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON
ISSUING AN SCA. LATER THIS WEEK...HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC
AS THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDS OVER N CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO GUSTY N WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$


MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 231033
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
330 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY. DRIER WEATHER WITH
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES PUSH 90F LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AFTER A QUIET PERIOD OVERNIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ON THE INCREASE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VORT
CENTER OFF THE NRN CA COAST INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW SAGGING
OVER THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS.  REGIONAL RADAR
NETWORK INDICATING TWO SEPARATE BANDS OF PCPN AFFECTING THE AREA. ONE
OVER THE COAST AND COAST RANGE...AND THE OTHER MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN AREA OF THE CWA.  MODELS INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LIFT
MOVING INTO THE AREA TODAY. SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL AND
INCREASED QPF FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

CONVECTION POTENTIAL FOR TODAY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THOUGH LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS IT APPEARS
THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOW.  HOWEVER FOR THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
AS THE UPPER LOW NEARS THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES...MORE TO THE NORTH
PART OF THE CWA THAN THE SOUTH...CONVECTION BECOMES MORE LIKELY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE -3 LIFTED INDEX OVER THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY
AND 0 TO 2 LI OVER THE SOUTH VALLEY. CAPE VALUES AROUND 400-600 J/KG
NORTH AND UNDER 100 J/KG SOUTH.  EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS PEAK AT AROUND
THE -30C LEVEL IN THE NORTH SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY DEEP
CONVECTION FOR HAIL DEVELOPMENT. ALSO OF NOTE IS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE LESS PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORM AND BE LONGER LIVED.  ALSO WITH A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERING JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
COAST THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR SURFACE WINDS IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AND ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO HAVE A BIT MORE OF A S
TO SSE COMPONENT THAN OTHERWISE EXPECTED. COMBINED WITH WSW WINDS OF
25 KT AT 900MB AND 40KT AT 500MB...A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING UPDRAFT
COULD ROTATE BRIEFLY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THIS
ACTUALLY OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE CWA...BUT IT WILL STILL BE
WORTH MONITORING. THE MORE EXPECTED HAZARDS...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL WERE ADDED TO THE THUNDER.

ON THE FIRE FRONT...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE WETTING RAINS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
LIKELY PUSHING AN INCH OF RAIN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED WETTING RAINS ARE LESS LIKELY TOWARDS
LANE COUNTY...BUT CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT AND THU WITH WEAK
RIDGING DEVELOPING SO EXPECT A DRYING AND WARMING TREND HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS
AMPLIFYING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD
MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND LOCATION.  -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
GENERALLY AFTER 12Z AND EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. COULD
SEE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO BEFORE 12Z WITH THE CURRENT BAND OF
SHOWERS AFFECTING COASTAL SITES BUT NOT LIKELY. RAIN AND MVFR
CIGS MOVE INTO THE VALLEY STARTING AROUND 12Z AT EUG AND
SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING. COULD BE SOME IFR VSBY AT ANY
TERMINALS WHICH DO EXPERIENCE A STORM BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH
THAT HAVE NOT INCLUDED THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MORNING
WITH CIGS ABOVE 4000 FT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 12Z WITH
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR. 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING KPDX AND APPROACHES AFTER 12Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z.


&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...KEEPING WINDS 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT TONIGHT
WITH A CONTINUED SMALL W-NW SWELL.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN AREA OF WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE NORTHERN OREGON OFFSHORE
WATERS...BUT WITH SUCH MARGINAL NUMBERS WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON
ISSUING AN SCA. LATER THIS WEEK...HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC
AS THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDS OVER N CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO GUSTY N WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$


MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 231010
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE TODAY
WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE LOW WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
WASHINGTON TONIGHT PRODUCING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE COAST. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
BRITISH COLUMBIA THURSDAY BUT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL STILL BRING
A THREAT OF SHOWERS INTO THE AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY
AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE REGION TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. VARIOUS MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BASIC EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IT WILL BE ACTIVE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTER AND ASSOCIATED MAIN VORT MAX
NOW CENTERED ALONG 130 W OFFSHORE. THE TROUGH HAS BECOME MORE N/S
ORIENTED AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE COAST TODAY. THIS IS TURNING THE FLOW MORE
SLY AND IS INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT ALOFT OVER WA. STRONG VORTICITY
ADVECTION COUPLED WITH THE 85+ KT JET SHIFTING OVERHEAD BY LATER
THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE VERTICAL MOTION DRAMATICALLY. IN
ADDITION...PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE 00Z KUIL SOUNDING WAS ALREADY
NEAR AN INCH AND A PLUM OF 1.5 INCHES SEEN ON THE SATELLITE PW
PRODUCT IS BECOMING ENTRAINED FROM A SOURCE REGION OFF THE CA COAST.
THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS INDICATED.

AT 230 AM RADAR WAS ALREADY PICKING UP SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER
THE CASCADES OF SNOHOMISH COUNTY. THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES
AHEAD OF AND NEAR THE LOW CENTER WHICH SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. RADAR ALSO SHOWS A SLUG OF
MODERATE RAINFALL EXPANDING OVER WRN OREGON WHICH WILL BE THE FIRST
ROUND OF APPRECIABLE RAIN AS IT REACHES WRN WA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES RIDING NWD THROUGH THE AREA WILL
MAINTAIN BURSTS OF MODERATE OR HEAVIER RAINFALL AT TIMES. MESO
MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM-12 AND WRFGFS TALLY UP .50 TO .75 INCHES
ACROSS MOST THE LOWLANDS AND LOCALLY OVER 2 INCHES NEAR THE COAST
AND MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SET RECORD RAINFALL
OVER THE AREA. SEE THE CLIMATE DISCUSSION BELOW.

SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OVER PARTS OF WRN WA LATER TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. SOME MODELS SHOW CONSIDERABLE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NE INTO SE BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE POST TROUGH
SURFACE PATTERN ALSO BECOMES FAVORABLE FOR CONVERGENCE ZONE
DEVELOPMENT ANYWHERE FROM SEATTLE-TACOMA NORTHWARD...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS SOUTH OF TACOMA AND TOWARD THE COAST MAY SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUNBREAKS. IT WILL REMAIN
QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S TODAY AND THURSDAY.

SPLIT WLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE PATTERN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
UPPER HEIGHTS START TO BUILD ON FRIDAY MAKING IT THE TRANSITION DAY
TOWARD DRY AND WARMER WEATHER. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 70S WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES AND INTERIOR PAC NW. MODELS SHOW RISING HEIGHTS OVER WRN WA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO
PREVENT ANY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW FROM DEVELOPING. INSTEAD...IT LOOKS
LIKE A NICE GRADUAL WARM UP TO THE 80S. SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE
ECMWF INDICATE THE RIDGE COULD EXPAND FAR ENOUGH WEST TO INDUCE A
THERMAL LOW OVER WRN WA AND EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS IS RATHER
UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT BUT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY
WITH DRY CONDITIONS. MERCER

&&

.CLIMATE...THERE HAVE BEEN 23 JULY DAYS WITH 0.50 INCHES OF RAIN OR
MORE SINCE RECORDS STARTED AT SEA-TAC IN 1945. ONLY 3 OF THOSE DAYS
HAVE BEEN SINCE 2000...0.65 INCHES ON JULY 16TH 2001....0.60 INCHES
ON JULY 20TH 2012 AND 0.58 INCHES ON JULY 7TH 2002. THE RECORD FOR
THE WETTEST JULY DAY AT SEA-TAC IS 0.85 INCHES ON JULY 13TH 1981.
THE WETTEST JULY DAY ON RECORD IN SEATTLE IS 0.98 INCHES ON JULY 5TH
1897 WHEN RECORDS WERE KEPT AT THE FEDERAL BUILDING DOWNTOWN. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL LOW ABOUT 200 NM WEST OF KHQM AT 12Z MOVING
EAST TODAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT. AIR MASS SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE TODAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS LONG BAND OF SHOWERS FROM
NEAR MOUNT BAKER TO NORTH BEND OREGON AT 10Z. THIS BAND WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW APPROACHES LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CEILINGS AOA 5000
FEET WILL LOWER LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON DOWN TO
1000-2000 FEET WITH THE INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE. SOME IMPROVEMENT
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BUT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL PREVENT CEILINGS FROM RAPIDLY IMPROVING
UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

KSEA...CEILINGS 6000-8000 FEET LOWERING DOWN TO 1000-2000 FEET LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASES.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE AT THE TERMINAL TOO LOW TO PUT IN THE TAF AT
THIS POINT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE CEILINGS TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHERLY 10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK 1015 MB LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY THEN DISSIPATE TONIGHT. WITH THE LOW DISSIPATING THE LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL REDEVELOP TONIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOST OF THE WATERS. ONSHORE FLOW OF
VARYING DEGREES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOWER PRES INLAND. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WESTERLIES IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT ARE LIKELY
EACH DAY LATE IN THE DAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES OVER
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML














000
FXUS66 KSEW 231010
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE TODAY
WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE LOW WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
WASHINGTON TONIGHT PRODUCING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE COAST. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
BRITISH COLUMBIA THURSDAY BUT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL STILL BRING
A THREAT OF SHOWERS INTO THE AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY
AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE REGION TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. VARIOUS MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BASIC EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IT WILL BE ACTIVE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTER AND ASSOCIATED MAIN VORT MAX
NOW CENTERED ALONG 130 W OFFSHORE. THE TROUGH HAS BECOME MORE N/S
ORIENTED AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE COAST TODAY. THIS IS TURNING THE FLOW MORE
SLY AND IS INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT ALOFT OVER WA. STRONG VORTICITY
ADVECTION COUPLED WITH THE 85+ KT JET SHIFTING OVERHEAD BY LATER
THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE VERTICAL MOTION DRAMATICALLY. IN
ADDITION...PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE 00Z KUIL SOUNDING WAS ALREADY
NEAR AN INCH AND A PLUM OF 1.5 INCHES SEEN ON THE SATELLITE PW
PRODUCT IS BECOMING ENTRAINED FROM A SOURCE REGION OFF THE CA COAST.
THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS INDICATED.

AT 230 AM RADAR WAS ALREADY PICKING UP SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER
THE CASCADES OF SNOHOMISH COUNTY. THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES
AHEAD OF AND NEAR THE LOW CENTER WHICH SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. RADAR ALSO SHOWS A SLUG OF
MODERATE RAINFALL EXPANDING OVER WRN OREGON WHICH WILL BE THE FIRST
ROUND OF APPRECIABLE RAIN AS IT REACHES WRN WA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES RIDING NWD THROUGH THE AREA WILL
MAINTAIN BURSTS OF MODERATE OR HEAVIER RAINFALL AT TIMES. MESO
MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM-12 AND WRFGFS TALLY UP .50 TO .75 INCHES
ACROSS MOST THE LOWLANDS AND LOCALLY OVER 2 INCHES NEAR THE COAST
AND MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SET RECORD RAINFALL
OVER THE AREA. SEE THE CLIMATE DISCUSSION BELOW.

SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OVER PARTS OF WRN WA LATER TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. SOME MODELS SHOW CONSIDERABLE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NE INTO SE BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE POST TROUGH
SURFACE PATTERN ALSO BECOMES FAVORABLE FOR CONVERGENCE ZONE
DEVELOPMENT ANYWHERE FROM SEATTLE-TACOMA NORTHWARD...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS SOUTH OF TACOMA AND TOWARD THE COAST MAY SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUNBREAKS. IT WILL REMAIN
QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S TODAY AND THURSDAY.

SPLIT WLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE PATTERN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
UPPER HEIGHTS START TO BUILD ON FRIDAY MAKING IT THE TRANSITION DAY
TOWARD DRY AND WARMER WEATHER. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 70S WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES AND INTERIOR PAC NW. MODELS SHOW RISING HEIGHTS OVER WRN WA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO
PREVENT ANY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW FROM DEVELOPING. INSTEAD...IT LOOKS
LIKE A NICE GRADUAL WARM UP TO THE 80S. SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE
ECMWF INDICATE THE RIDGE COULD EXPAND FAR ENOUGH WEST TO INDUCE A
THERMAL LOW OVER WRN WA AND EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS IS RATHER
UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT BUT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY
WITH DRY CONDITIONS. MERCER

&&

.CLIMATE...THERE HAVE BEEN 23 JULY DAYS WITH 0.50 INCHES OF RAIN OR
MORE SINCE RECORDS STARTED AT SEA-TAC IN 1945. ONLY 3 OF THOSE DAYS
HAVE BEEN SINCE 2000...0.65 INCHES ON JULY 16TH 2001....0.60 INCHES
ON JULY 20TH 2012 AND 0.58 INCHES ON JULY 7TH 2002. THE RECORD FOR
THE WETTEST JULY DAY AT SEA-TAC IS 0.85 INCHES ON JULY 13TH 1981.
THE WETTEST JULY DAY ON RECORD IN SEATTLE IS 0.98 INCHES ON JULY 5TH
1897 WHEN RECORDS WERE KEPT AT THE FEDERAL BUILDING DOWNTOWN. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL LOW ABOUT 200 NM WEST OF KHQM AT 12Z MOVING
EAST TODAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT. AIR MASS SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE TODAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS LONG BAND OF SHOWERS FROM
NEAR MOUNT BAKER TO NORTH BEND OREGON AT 10Z. THIS BAND WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW APPROACHES LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CEILINGS AOA 5000
FEET WILL LOWER LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON DOWN TO
1000-2000 FEET WITH THE INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE. SOME IMPROVEMENT
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BUT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL PREVENT CEILINGS FROM RAPIDLY IMPROVING
UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

KSEA...CEILINGS 6000-8000 FEET LOWERING DOWN TO 1000-2000 FEET LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASES.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE AT THE TERMINAL TOO LOW TO PUT IN THE TAF AT
THIS POINT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE CEILINGS TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHERLY 10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK 1015 MB LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY THEN DISSIPATE TONIGHT. WITH THE LOW DISSIPATING THE LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL REDEVELOP TONIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOST OF THE WATERS. ONSHORE FLOW OF
VARYING DEGREES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOWER PRES INLAND. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WESTERLIES IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT ARE LIKELY
EACH DAY LATE IN THE DAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES OVER
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML














000
FXUS66 KSEW 231010
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE TODAY
WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE LOW WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
WASHINGTON TONIGHT PRODUCING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE COAST. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
BRITISH COLUMBIA THURSDAY BUT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL STILL BRING
A THREAT OF SHOWERS INTO THE AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY
AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE REGION TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. VARIOUS MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BASIC EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IT WILL BE ACTIVE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTER AND ASSOCIATED MAIN VORT MAX
NOW CENTERED ALONG 130 W OFFSHORE. THE TROUGH HAS BECOME MORE N/S
ORIENTED AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE COAST TODAY. THIS IS TURNING THE FLOW MORE
SLY AND IS INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT ALOFT OVER WA. STRONG VORTICITY
ADVECTION COUPLED WITH THE 85+ KT JET SHIFTING OVERHEAD BY LATER
THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE VERTICAL MOTION DRAMATICALLY. IN
ADDITION...PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE 00Z KUIL SOUNDING WAS ALREADY
NEAR AN INCH AND A PLUM OF 1.5 INCHES SEEN ON THE SATELLITE PW
PRODUCT IS BECOMING ENTRAINED FROM A SOURCE REGION OFF THE CA COAST.
THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS INDICATED.

AT 230 AM RADAR WAS ALREADY PICKING UP SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER
THE CASCADES OF SNOHOMISH COUNTY. THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES
AHEAD OF AND NEAR THE LOW CENTER WHICH SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. RADAR ALSO SHOWS A SLUG OF
MODERATE RAINFALL EXPANDING OVER WRN OREGON WHICH WILL BE THE FIRST
ROUND OF APPRECIABLE RAIN AS IT REACHES WRN WA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES RIDING NWD THROUGH THE AREA WILL
MAINTAIN BURSTS OF MODERATE OR HEAVIER RAINFALL AT TIMES. MESO
MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM-12 AND WRFGFS TALLY UP .50 TO .75 INCHES
ACROSS MOST THE LOWLANDS AND LOCALLY OVER 2 INCHES NEAR THE COAST
AND MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SET RECORD RAINFALL
OVER THE AREA. SEE THE CLIMATE DISCUSSION BELOW.

SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OVER PARTS OF WRN WA LATER TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. SOME MODELS SHOW CONSIDERABLE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NE INTO SE BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE POST TROUGH
SURFACE PATTERN ALSO BECOMES FAVORABLE FOR CONVERGENCE ZONE
DEVELOPMENT ANYWHERE FROM SEATTLE-TACOMA NORTHWARD...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS SOUTH OF TACOMA AND TOWARD THE COAST MAY SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUNBREAKS. IT WILL REMAIN
QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S TODAY AND THURSDAY.

SPLIT WLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE PATTERN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
UPPER HEIGHTS START TO BUILD ON FRIDAY MAKING IT THE TRANSITION DAY
TOWARD DRY AND WARMER WEATHER. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 70S WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES AND INTERIOR PAC NW. MODELS SHOW RISING HEIGHTS OVER WRN WA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO
PREVENT ANY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW FROM DEVELOPING. INSTEAD...IT LOOKS
LIKE A NICE GRADUAL WARM UP TO THE 80S. SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE
ECMWF INDICATE THE RIDGE COULD EXPAND FAR ENOUGH WEST TO INDUCE A
THERMAL LOW OVER WRN WA AND EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS IS RATHER
UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT BUT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY
WITH DRY CONDITIONS. MERCER

&&

.CLIMATE...THERE HAVE BEEN 23 JULY DAYS WITH 0.50 INCHES OF RAIN OR
MORE SINCE RECORDS STARTED AT SEA-TAC IN 1945. ONLY 3 OF THOSE DAYS
HAVE BEEN SINCE 2000...0.65 INCHES ON JULY 16TH 2001....0.60 INCHES
ON JULY 20TH 2012 AND 0.58 INCHES ON JULY 7TH 2002. THE RECORD FOR
THE WETTEST JULY DAY AT SEA-TAC IS 0.85 INCHES ON JULY 13TH 1981.
THE WETTEST JULY DAY ON RECORD IN SEATTLE IS 0.98 INCHES ON JULY 5TH
1897 WHEN RECORDS WERE KEPT AT THE FEDERAL BUILDING DOWNTOWN. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL LOW ABOUT 200 NM WEST OF KHQM AT 12Z MOVING
EAST TODAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT. AIR MASS SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE TODAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS LONG BAND OF SHOWERS FROM
NEAR MOUNT BAKER TO NORTH BEND OREGON AT 10Z. THIS BAND WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW APPROACHES LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CEILINGS AOA 5000
FEET WILL LOWER LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON DOWN TO
1000-2000 FEET WITH THE INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE. SOME IMPROVEMENT
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BUT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL PREVENT CEILINGS FROM RAPIDLY IMPROVING
UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

KSEA...CEILINGS 6000-8000 FEET LOWERING DOWN TO 1000-2000 FEET LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASES.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE AT THE TERMINAL TOO LOW TO PUT IN THE TAF AT
THIS POINT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE CEILINGS TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHERLY 10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK 1015 MB LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY THEN DISSIPATE TONIGHT. WITH THE LOW DISSIPATING THE LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL REDEVELOP TONIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOST OF THE WATERS. ONSHORE FLOW OF
VARYING DEGREES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOWER PRES INLAND. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WESTERLIES IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT ARE LIKELY
EACH DAY LATE IN THE DAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES OVER
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML














000
FXUS66 KSEW 231010
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE TODAY
WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE LOW WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
WASHINGTON TONIGHT PRODUCING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE COAST. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
BRITISH COLUMBIA THURSDAY BUT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL STILL BRING
A THREAT OF SHOWERS INTO THE AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY
AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE REGION TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. VARIOUS MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BASIC EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IT WILL BE ACTIVE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTER AND ASSOCIATED MAIN VORT MAX
NOW CENTERED ALONG 130 W OFFSHORE. THE TROUGH HAS BECOME MORE N/S
ORIENTED AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE COAST TODAY. THIS IS TURNING THE FLOW MORE
SLY AND IS INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT ALOFT OVER WA. STRONG VORTICITY
ADVECTION COUPLED WITH THE 85+ KT JET SHIFTING OVERHEAD BY LATER
THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE VERTICAL MOTION DRAMATICALLY. IN
ADDITION...PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE 00Z KUIL SOUNDING WAS ALREADY
NEAR AN INCH AND A PLUM OF 1.5 INCHES SEEN ON THE SATELLITE PW
PRODUCT IS BECOMING ENTRAINED FROM A SOURCE REGION OFF THE CA COAST.
THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS INDICATED.

AT 230 AM RADAR WAS ALREADY PICKING UP SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER
THE CASCADES OF SNOHOMISH COUNTY. THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES
AHEAD OF AND NEAR THE LOW CENTER WHICH SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. RADAR ALSO SHOWS A SLUG OF
MODERATE RAINFALL EXPANDING OVER WRN OREGON WHICH WILL BE THE FIRST
ROUND OF APPRECIABLE RAIN AS IT REACHES WRN WA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES RIDING NWD THROUGH THE AREA WILL
MAINTAIN BURSTS OF MODERATE OR HEAVIER RAINFALL AT TIMES. MESO
MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM-12 AND WRFGFS TALLY UP .50 TO .75 INCHES
ACROSS MOST THE LOWLANDS AND LOCALLY OVER 2 INCHES NEAR THE COAST
AND MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SET RECORD RAINFALL
OVER THE AREA. SEE THE CLIMATE DISCUSSION BELOW.

SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OVER PARTS OF WRN WA LATER TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. SOME MODELS SHOW CONSIDERABLE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NE INTO SE BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE POST TROUGH
SURFACE PATTERN ALSO BECOMES FAVORABLE FOR CONVERGENCE ZONE
DEVELOPMENT ANYWHERE FROM SEATTLE-TACOMA NORTHWARD...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS SOUTH OF TACOMA AND TOWARD THE COAST MAY SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUNBREAKS. IT WILL REMAIN
QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S TODAY AND THURSDAY.

SPLIT WLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE PATTERN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
UPPER HEIGHTS START TO BUILD ON FRIDAY MAKING IT THE TRANSITION DAY
TOWARD DRY AND WARMER WEATHER. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 70S WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES AND INTERIOR PAC NW. MODELS SHOW RISING HEIGHTS OVER WRN WA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO
PREVENT ANY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW FROM DEVELOPING. INSTEAD...IT LOOKS
LIKE A NICE GRADUAL WARM UP TO THE 80S. SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE
ECMWF INDICATE THE RIDGE COULD EXPAND FAR ENOUGH WEST TO INDUCE A
THERMAL LOW OVER WRN WA AND EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS IS RATHER
UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT BUT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY
WITH DRY CONDITIONS. MERCER

&&

.CLIMATE...THERE HAVE BEEN 23 JULY DAYS WITH 0.50 INCHES OF RAIN OR
MORE SINCE RECORDS STARTED AT SEA-TAC IN 1945. ONLY 3 OF THOSE DAYS
HAVE BEEN SINCE 2000...0.65 INCHES ON JULY 16TH 2001....0.60 INCHES
ON JULY 20TH 2012 AND 0.58 INCHES ON JULY 7TH 2002. THE RECORD FOR
THE WETTEST JULY DAY AT SEA-TAC IS 0.85 INCHES ON JULY 13TH 1981.
THE WETTEST JULY DAY ON RECORD IN SEATTLE IS 0.98 INCHES ON JULY 5TH
1897 WHEN RECORDS WERE KEPT AT THE FEDERAL BUILDING DOWNTOWN. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL LOW ABOUT 200 NM WEST OF KHQM AT 12Z MOVING
EAST TODAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT. AIR MASS SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE TODAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS LONG BAND OF SHOWERS FROM
NEAR MOUNT BAKER TO NORTH BEND OREGON AT 10Z. THIS BAND WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW APPROACHES LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CEILINGS AOA 5000
FEET WILL LOWER LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON DOWN TO
1000-2000 FEET WITH THE INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE. SOME IMPROVEMENT
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BUT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL PREVENT CEILINGS FROM RAPIDLY IMPROVING
UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

KSEA...CEILINGS 6000-8000 FEET LOWERING DOWN TO 1000-2000 FEET LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASES.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE AT THE TERMINAL TOO LOW TO PUT IN THE TAF AT
THIS POINT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE CEILINGS TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHERLY 10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK 1015 MB LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY THEN DISSIPATE TONIGHT. WITH THE LOW DISSIPATING THE LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL REDEVELOP TONIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOST OF THE WATERS. ONSHORE FLOW OF
VARYING DEGREES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOWER PRES INLAND. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WESTERLIES IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT ARE LIKELY
EACH DAY LATE IN THE DAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES OVER
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML














000
FXUS66 KOTX 230910
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
210 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm system will move through the region today, bringing
the potential for thunderstorms and heavy rain. Cool and windy
weather is expected for Thursday. Temperatures will rebound by the
weekend and be accompanied by dry conditions. Hot weather will
return to the area on Sunday and early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight: A strong storm system comes into the region,
with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low pressure is
centered off the Washington coast this morning and is forecast to
reach NE WA/SE BC by Thursday morning. Ahead of it is a moist
southwest flow, with PWATs around 1 inch (or about 180% of normal)
and surface dew points in the 50s to low 60s. This morning showers
and thunderstorms, associated with a mid-level disturbance and
slug of mid-level instability that came in from Oregon, will
continue to lift northward and out into BC and MT. This will leave
some lull in the bigger precipitation threat from around 15-20Z
for a good chunk of the region. However other showers are expected
to continue near the Cascades with the offshore low approaching
and the next shortwave pivoting around it.

Then this afternoon and evening the next round of showers and
thunderstorms develops. As temperatures warm into the 70s and
80s the convective instability blossoms: SBCAPE values from 18
and 00Z rise to between 200 and 1000 J/kg. The best of it centered
along and north and east of a line from Mazama to Othello. In that
region models paint the core of it across the northeast mountains
south into the Palouse and across the north and central Panhandle.
So going into the afternoon a theta-e ridge slips in from the
south, while the cold front and supporting upper low push into
the Cascades and east toward the Idaho Panhandle by this evening.
These latter several features would be enough to bring a good
threat of showers and thunderstorms. But the coupling of one jet
streak tracking up from the Great Basin into central Idaho and
second jet streak rounding the upper low, with a fair amount of
diffluence over eastern Washington and north Idaho, makes me even
more confident there is enough lift out there to bring showers
and thunderstorms.

Models still paint some of the higher precipitation amounts along
the cold front and upper low over the Cascades, supporting the
potential for flooding. Hence the flash flood watch remains in
place, especially with concerns in the burn scar areas from this
and the past few summers. The threat of strong to locally severe
thunderstorms also remains over much of eastern WA and north ID
too given the forces of lift, moisture and instability coming
together. With 0-6km bulk shear between 30 to 50kts, storms will
have the potential to be more organized. Looking at forecast
soundings, the CAPE appears to be relatively thin and tall, with
a relatively dry sub-cloud layer. This lends thinking that the
main threat from storms will be hail and gusty winds.

Going into the late evening and overnight the cold front is
pushed east of the region, with the upper low near the WA/BC
border. Some elevated instability lingers across the Canadian
border, petering out southwest toward the Waterville Plateau. Some
weak instability lingers near the Clearwaters too. Thus the
primary shower chances will continue near the Cascade crest,
northern mountains and across Idaho, especially through the early
overnight. The remainder of the area should see things drying out,
with some clearing from the southwest.

The other issue will be winds. Outside of those generated with
thunderstorms, synoptic winds are expected to pick up from the
west-southwest this afternoon and tonight along and behind the
front. By mid to later afternoon winds in the 10 to 20 mph range
will be possible, especially over the east Chelan county, across
the Basin into the Spokane/C`dA area, Palouse and L-C Valley.
Gusts near 30 mph or so will also be possible. Speeds abate some
overnight, but still remain relatively breezy for the time of day.
/J. Cote`

Thursday through Sunday...Model guidance indicates the cold pool
aloft associated with the anomalous upper low will be centered
over the northern reaches of the forecast area as Thursday dawns.
This should promote continued showers...but given the time of day
before appreciable surface based instability can be generated
these lingering showers will be primarily left over rain showers
from the previous evening`s convective activity with only a few
isolated thunderstorms centered mainly over the mountainous
terrain north of the Columbia Basin. Thursday overall will be a
day of general improvement as the offending upper low begins to
move out of the region to the northeast during the afternoon. The
cooler maritime air mass in the wake of the upper low will
manifest itself as much cooler than normal temperatures on
Thursday with generally breezy conditions with gusts to near 30
mph over the exposed terrain of the basin and Cascade gaps.

Friday through Sunday will feature a drying and warming trend as a
mid-summer 4 corners upper level ridge builds into the region. A
general warming trend to back above normal will become noticeable
starting Friday and continuing through the weekend with lighter
winds and a dry and stable air mass precluding any precipitation.
/Fugazzi

Monday through Wednesday: A ridging pattern is expected to be over
the region for this period. This will lead to a dry and warming
trend in the temperatures. The models are in good agreement for
this period with the exception of the GFS showing a shortwave on
Monday morning. The lack of moisture kept the chance of showers
out the forecast. Temperatures are expected to be in the 90s for
the region during this period. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A low pressure system circulating off of southeast BC
will continue to push moisture across the Inland Northwest with
showers and thunderstorms affecting all TAF sites. The strongest
thunderstorms are expected to develop over northeast OR and track
into southeast WA and into the central portions of the ID
panhandle. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue overnight. Confidence is highest that they will affect
KEAT/KLWS/KPUW/KCOE. Lower confidence for KMWH/KGEG/KSFF. -TSRA
will be more widespread Wednesday afternoon and evening with
thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rain, small hail and
gusty outflow winds. /EK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        83  52  71  51  77  55 /  50  80  20  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  84  53  67  52  76  51 /  50  80  40  10   0   0
Pullman        84  49  69  46  76  44 /  40  70  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       90  58  78  57  84  56 /  40  60  10   0   0   0
Colville       81  51  71  51  80  50 /  60  80  50  10   0   0
Sandpoint      85  51  66  49  73  49 /  50  80  50  10   0   0
Kellogg        85  52  65  50  73  51 /  40  80  40  10   0   0
Moses Lake     83  56  75  57  84  57 /  50  40  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      75  58  73  59  83  61 /  70  40  20   0   0   0
Omak           77  55  74  53  84  54 /  80  60  20  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from 8 AM PDT this morning through this
     evening for East Slopes Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley-
     Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 230910
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
210 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm system will move through the region today, bringing
the potential for thunderstorms and heavy rain. Cool and windy
weather is expected for Thursday. Temperatures will rebound by the
weekend and be accompanied by dry conditions. Hot weather will
return to the area on Sunday and early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight: A strong storm system comes into the region,
with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low pressure is
centered off the Washington coast this morning and is forecast to
reach NE WA/SE BC by Thursday morning. Ahead of it is a moist
southwest flow, with PWATs around 1 inch (or about 180% of normal)
and surface dew points in the 50s to low 60s. This morning showers
and thunderstorms, associated with a mid-level disturbance and
slug of mid-level instability that came in from Oregon, will
continue to lift northward and out into BC and MT. This will leave
some lull in the bigger precipitation threat from around 15-20Z
for a good chunk of the region. However other showers are expected
to continue near the Cascades with the offshore low approaching
and the next shortwave pivoting around it.

Then this afternoon and evening the next round of showers and
thunderstorms develops. As temperatures warm into the 70s and
80s the convective instability blossoms: SBCAPE values from 18
and 00Z rise to between 200 and 1000 J/kg. The best of it centered
along and north and east of a line from Mazama to Othello. In that
region models paint the core of it across the northeast mountains
south into the Palouse and across the north and central Panhandle.
So going into the afternoon a theta-e ridge slips in from the
south, while the cold front and supporting upper low push into
the Cascades and east toward the Idaho Panhandle by this evening.
These latter several features would be enough to bring a good
threat of showers and thunderstorms. But the coupling of one jet
streak tracking up from the Great Basin into central Idaho and
second jet streak rounding the upper low, with a fair amount of
diffluence over eastern Washington and north Idaho, makes me even
more confident there is enough lift out there to bring showers
and thunderstorms.

Models still paint some of the higher precipitation amounts along
the cold front and upper low over the Cascades, supporting the
potential for flooding. Hence the flash flood watch remains in
place, especially with concerns in the burn scar areas from this
and the past few summers. The threat of strong to locally severe
thunderstorms also remains over much of eastern WA and north ID
too given the forces of lift, moisture and instability coming
together. With 0-6km bulk shear between 30 to 50kts, storms will
have the potential to be more organized. Looking at forecast
soundings, the CAPE appears to be relatively thin and tall, with
a relatively dry sub-cloud layer. This lends thinking that the
main threat from storms will be hail and gusty winds.

Going into the late evening and overnight the cold front is
pushed east of the region, with the upper low near the WA/BC
border. Some elevated instability lingers across the Canadian
border, petering out southwest toward the Waterville Plateau. Some
weak instability lingers near the Clearwaters too. Thus the
primary shower chances will continue near the Cascade crest,
northern mountains and across Idaho, especially through the early
overnight. The remainder of the area should see things drying out,
with some clearing from the southwest.

The other issue will be winds. Outside of those generated with
thunderstorms, synoptic winds are expected to pick up from the
west-southwest this afternoon and tonight along and behind the
front. By mid to later afternoon winds in the 10 to 20 mph range
will be possible, especially over the east Chelan county, across
the Basin into the Spokane/C`dA area, Palouse and L-C Valley.
Gusts near 30 mph or so will also be possible. Speeds abate some
overnight, but still remain relatively breezy for the time of day.
/J. Cote`

Thursday through Sunday...Model guidance indicates the cold pool
aloft associated with the anomalous upper low will be centered
over the northern reaches of the forecast area as Thursday dawns.
This should promote continued showers...but given the time of day
before appreciable surface based instability can be generated
these lingering showers will be primarily left over rain showers
from the previous evening`s convective activity with only a few
isolated thunderstorms centered mainly over the mountainous
terrain north of the Columbia Basin. Thursday overall will be a
day of general improvement as the offending upper low begins to
move out of the region to the northeast during the afternoon. The
cooler maritime air mass in the wake of the upper low will
manifest itself as much cooler than normal temperatures on
Thursday with generally breezy conditions with gusts to near 30
mph over the exposed terrain of the basin and Cascade gaps.

Friday through Sunday will feature a drying and warming trend as a
mid-summer 4 corners upper level ridge builds into the region. A
general warming trend to back above normal will become noticeable
starting Friday and continuing through the weekend with lighter
winds and a dry and stable air mass precluding any precipitation.
/Fugazzi

Monday through Wednesday: A ridging pattern is expected to be over
the region for this period. This will lead to a dry and warming
trend in the temperatures. The models are in good agreement for
this period with the exception of the GFS showing a shortwave on
Monday morning. The lack of moisture kept the chance of showers
out the forecast. Temperatures are expected to be in the 90s for
the region during this period. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A low pressure system circulating off of southeast BC
will continue to push moisture across the Inland Northwest with
showers and thunderstorms affecting all TAF sites. The strongest
thunderstorms are expected to develop over northeast OR and track
into southeast WA and into the central portions of the ID
panhandle. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue overnight. Confidence is highest that they will affect
KEAT/KLWS/KPUW/KCOE. Lower confidence for KMWH/KGEG/KSFF. -TSRA
will be more widespread Wednesday afternoon and evening with
thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rain, small hail and
gusty outflow winds. /EK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        83  52  71  51  77  55 /  50  80  20  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  84  53  67  52  76  51 /  50  80  40  10   0   0
Pullman        84  49  69  46  76  44 /  40  70  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       90  58  78  57  84  56 /  40  60  10   0   0   0
Colville       81  51  71  51  80  50 /  60  80  50  10   0   0
Sandpoint      85  51  66  49  73  49 /  50  80  50  10   0   0
Kellogg        85  52  65  50  73  51 /  40  80  40  10   0   0
Moses Lake     83  56  75  57  84  57 /  50  40  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      75  58  73  59  83  61 /  70  40  20   0   0   0
Omak           77  55  74  53  84  54 /  80  60  20  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from 8 AM PDT this morning through this
     evening for East Slopes Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley-
     Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 230533
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1033 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm system will move through the region tonight and
Wednesday bringing the potential for thunderstorms and heavy rain.
Cool and windy weather is expected for Thursday. Temperatures
will rebound by the weekend and be accompanied by dry conditions.
Hot weather will return to the area on Sunday and early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Minor update to adjust PoPs across the southeast zones and the
lower basin. Regional radar mosaic shows a persistent band of
showers and thunderstorms tracking northeast from the NE Blue
Mts, across the Idaho Palouse and into western Shoshone County.
There are also a few cells popping up over the lower basin with
quite a bit of convection to the south that will track north over
the next few hours. Cells are generally weakening as they move
north into the forecast area. So far only light to moderate
showers over the Cascade fires. There may be some stronger cells
tracking over the fires later tonight or they may track just
barely to the east of the fires. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A low pressure system circulating off of southeast BC
will continue to push moisture across the Inland Northwest with
showers and thunderstorms affecting all TAF sites. The strongest
thunderstorms are expected to develop over northeast OR and track
into southeast WA and into the central portions of the ID
panhandle. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue overnight. Confidence is highest that they will affect
KEAT/KLWS/KPUW/KCOE. Lower confidence for KMWH/KGEG/KSFF. -TSRA
will be more widespread Wednesday afternoon and evening with
thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rain, small hail and
gusty outflow winds. /EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        62  83  52  69  51  77 /  40  50  80  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  60  84  53  68  52  76 /  40  50  80  20  10   0
Pullman        62  84  49  68  46  76 /  50  40  70  10   0   0
Lewiston       65  90  58  77  57  85 /  50  40  60  10   0   0
Colville       58  81  51  71  51  78 /  20  60  80  40  10   0
Sandpoint      58  85  51  65  49  73 /  30  50  80  50  10   0
Kellogg        58  85  52  64  50  71 /  50  40  80  20  10   0
Moses Lake     66  83  56  77  57  85 /  30  50  40  10   0   0
Wenatchee      63  75  59  74  59  85 /  40  70  40  10   0   0
Omak           60  77  55  76  53  85 /  20  80  60  20  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from 8 AM PDT Wednesday through Wednesday
     evening for East Slopes Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley-
     Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 230408
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
905 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND OVER
WASHINGTON LATE WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO SOUTHERN ALBERTA
THURSDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
WESTERN WA THROUGH WED. MUCH OF THE WESTERN WASHINGTON LOWLANDS WILL
RECEIVE MORE THAN A HALF INCH RAIN. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AIR BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE IN FAIRLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. SO FAR THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN OVER OREGON AND SE WASHINGTON THIS EVENING...BUT THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD WORK NORTH OVER WA THROUGH WED. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE TO SOUTHERN ALBERTA ON THURSDAY...PUTTING WRN WA IN DRYING
NW FLOW ALOFT WITH SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE CASCADES THEN ENDING BY
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE LOWLANDS SHOULD BE DRY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AN RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY WARM WEATHER AND
SUNSHINE FOR THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WITH ITS AXIS
ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY...THE 500 MB
HEIGHTS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL BE AROUND 5850 METERS...AND
HIGHS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN WASHINGTON LOWLANDS SHOULD BE WELL
INTO THE 80S. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...AND THE NIGHT AND MORNING
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED MOSTLY TO THE COAST. THE GFS
STARTS TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AROUND TUESDAY...IMPLYING A MARINE PUSH
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF LOOKS AT LEAST A DAY LATER WITH THAT.
MCDONNAL

&&

.CLIMATE...THERE HAVE BEEN 23 JULY DAYS WITH 0.50 INCHES OF RAIN OR
MORE SINCE RECORDS STARTED AT SEA-TAC IN 1945. ONLY 3 OF THOSE DAYS
HAVE BEEN SINCE 2000...0.65 INCHES ON JULY 16TH 2001....0.60 INCHES
ON JULY 20TH 2012 AND 0.58 INCHES ON JULY 7TH 2002. THE RECORD FOR
THE WETTEST JULY DAY AT SEA-TAC IS 0.85 INCHES ON JULY 13TH 1981.
THE WETTEST JULY DAY ON RECORD IN SEATTLE IS 0.98 INCHES ON JULY 5TH
1897 WHEN RECORDS WERE KEPT AT THE FEDERAL BUILDING DOWNTOWN. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT TONIGHT. FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AIR MASS STABLE BECOMING SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ON
WEDNESDAY.

SHORT BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. 7000-8000
FOOT DECK MOVING UP FROM NORTHWESTERN OREGON WILL BE OVER THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. CEILINGS LOWERING DOWN INTO THE 1000-2000 FOOT RANGE
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION INCREASING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

KSEA...7000 FOOT DECK ARRIVING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. CEILINGS LOWERING
DOWN TO 1000-2000 FEET BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK 1015 MB SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS PATTERN
WILL CREATE LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASING MID DAY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER MOST
OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY THEN EASING THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STRAIT LATE IN THE DAY. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML











000
FXUS66 KSEW 230408
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
905 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND OVER
WASHINGTON LATE WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO SOUTHERN ALBERTA
THURSDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
WESTERN WA THROUGH WED. MUCH OF THE WESTERN WASHINGTON LOWLANDS WILL
RECEIVE MORE THAN A HALF INCH RAIN. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AIR BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE IN FAIRLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. SO FAR THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN OVER OREGON AND SE WASHINGTON THIS EVENING...BUT THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD WORK NORTH OVER WA THROUGH WED. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE TO SOUTHERN ALBERTA ON THURSDAY...PUTTING WRN WA IN DRYING
NW FLOW ALOFT WITH SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE CASCADES THEN ENDING BY
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE LOWLANDS SHOULD BE DRY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AN RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY WARM WEATHER AND
SUNSHINE FOR THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WITH ITS AXIS
ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY...THE 500 MB
HEIGHTS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL BE AROUND 5850 METERS...AND
HIGHS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN WASHINGTON LOWLANDS SHOULD BE WELL
INTO THE 80S. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...AND THE NIGHT AND MORNING
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED MOSTLY TO THE COAST. THE GFS
STARTS TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AROUND TUESDAY...IMPLYING A MARINE PUSH
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF LOOKS AT LEAST A DAY LATER WITH THAT.
MCDONNAL

&&

.CLIMATE...THERE HAVE BEEN 23 JULY DAYS WITH 0.50 INCHES OF RAIN OR
MORE SINCE RECORDS STARTED AT SEA-TAC IN 1945. ONLY 3 OF THOSE DAYS
HAVE BEEN SINCE 2000...0.65 INCHES ON JULY 16TH 2001....0.60 INCHES
ON JULY 20TH 2012 AND 0.58 INCHES ON JULY 7TH 2002. THE RECORD FOR
THE WETTEST JULY DAY AT SEA-TAC IS 0.85 INCHES ON JULY 13TH 1981.
THE WETTEST JULY DAY ON RECORD IN SEATTLE IS 0.98 INCHES ON JULY 5TH
1897 WHEN RECORDS WERE KEPT AT THE FEDERAL BUILDING DOWNTOWN. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT TONIGHT. FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AIR MASS STABLE BECOMING SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ON
WEDNESDAY.

SHORT BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. 7000-8000
FOOT DECK MOVING UP FROM NORTHWESTERN OREGON WILL BE OVER THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. CEILINGS LOWERING DOWN INTO THE 1000-2000 FOOT RANGE
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION INCREASING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

KSEA...7000 FOOT DECK ARRIVING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. CEILINGS LOWERING
DOWN TO 1000-2000 FEET BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK 1015 MB SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS PATTERN
WILL CREATE LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASING MID DAY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER MOST
OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY THEN EASING THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STRAIT LATE IN THE DAY. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML











000
FXUS66 KSEW 230408
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
905 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND OVER
WASHINGTON LATE WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO SOUTHERN ALBERTA
THURSDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
WESTERN WA THROUGH WED. MUCH OF THE WESTERN WASHINGTON LOWLANDS WILL
RECEIVE MORE THAN A HALF INCH RAIN. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AIR BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE IN FAIRLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. SO FAR THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN OVER OREGON AND SE WASHINGTON THIS EVENING...BUT THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD WORK NORTH OVER WA THROUGH WED. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE TO SOUTHERN ALBERTA ON THURSDAY...PUTTING WRN WA IN DRYING
NW FLOW ALOFT WITH SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE CASCADES THEN ENDING BY
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE LOWLANDS SHOULD BE DRY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AN RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY WARM WEATHER AND
SUNSHINE FOR THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WITH ITS AXIS
ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY...THE 500 MB
HEIGHTS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL BE AROUND 5850 METERS...AND
HIGHS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN WASHINGTON LOWLANDS SHOULD BE WELL
INTO THE 80S. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...AND THE NIGHT AND MORNING
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED MOSTLY TO THE COAST. THE GFS
STARTS TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AROUND TUESDAY...IMPLYING A MARINE PUSH
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF LOOKS AT LEAST A DAY LATER WITH THAT.
MCDONNAL

&&

.CLIMATE...THERE HAVE BEEN 23 JULY DAYS WITH 0.50 INCHES OF RAIN OR
MORE SINCE RECORDS STARTED AT SEA-TAC IN 1945. ONLY 3 OF THOSE DAYS
HAVE BEEN SINCE 2000...0.65 INCHES ON JULY 16TH 2001....0.60 INCHES
ON JULY 20TH 2012 AND 0.58 INCHES ON JULY 7TH 2002. THE RECORD FOR
THE WETTEST JULY DAY AT SEA-TAC IS 0.85 INCHES ON JULY 13TH 1981.
THE WETTEST JULY DAY ON RECORD IN SEATTLE IS 0.98 INCHES ON JULY 5TH
1897 WHEN RECORDS WERE KEPT AT THE FEDERAL BUILDING DOWNTOWN. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT TONIGHT. FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AIR MASS STABLE BECOMING SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ON
WEDNESDAY.

SHORT BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. 7000-8000
FOOT DECK MOVING UP FROM NORTHWESTERN OREGON WILL BE OVER THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. CEILINGS LOWERING DOWN INTO THE 1000-2000 FOOT RANGE
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION INCREASING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

KSEA...7000 FOOT DECK ARRIVING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. CEILINGS LOWERING
DOWN TO 1000-2000 FEET BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK 1015 MB SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS PATTERN
WILL CREATE LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASING MID DAY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER MOST
OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY THEN EASING THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STRAIT LATE IN THE DAY. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML











000
FXUS66 KSEW 230408
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
905 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND OVER
WASHINGTON LATE WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO SOUTHERN ALBERTA
THURSDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
WESTERN WA THROUGH WED. MUCH OF THE WESTERN WASHINGTON LOWLANDS WILL
RECEIVE MORE THAN A HALF INCH RAIN. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AIR BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE IN FAIRLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. SO FAR THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN OVER OREGON AND SE WASHINGTON THIS EVENING...BUT THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD WORK NORTH OVER WA THROUGH WED. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE TO SOUTHERN ALBERTA ON THURSDAY...PUTTING WRN WA IN DRYING
NW FLOW ALOFT WITH SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE CASCADES THEN ENDING BY
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE LOWLANDS SHOULD BE DRY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AN RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY WARM WEATHER AND
SUNSHINE FOR THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WITH ITS AXIS
ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY...THE 500 MB
HEIGHTS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL BE AROUND 5850 METERS...AND
HIGHS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN WASHINGTON LOWLANDS SHOULD BE WELL
INTO THE 80S. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...AND THE NIGHT AND MORNING
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED MOSTLY TO THE COAST. THE GFS
STARTS TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AROUND TUESDAY...IMPLYING A MARINE PUSH
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF LOOKS AT LEAST A DAY LATER WITH THAT.
MCDONNAL

&&

.CLIMATE...THERE HAVE BEEN 23 JULY DAYS WITH 0.50 INCHES OF RAIN OR
MORE SINCE RECORDS STARTED AT SEA-TAC IN 1945. ONLY 3 OF THOSE DAYS
HAVE BEEN SINCE 2000...0.65 INCHES ON JULY 16TH 2001....0.60 INCHES
ON JULY 20TH 2012 AND 0.58 INCHES ON JULY 7TH 2002. THE RECORD FOR
THE WETTEST JULY DAY AT SEA-TAC IS 0.85 INCHES ON JULY 13TH 1981.
THE WETTEST JULY DAY ON RECORD IN SEATTLE IS 0.98 INCHES ON JULY 5TH
1897 WHEN RECORDS WERE KEPT AT THE FEDERAL BUILDING DOWNTOWN. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT TONIGHT. FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AIR MASS STABLE BECOMING SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ON
WEDNESDAY.

SHORT BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. 7000-8000
FOOT DECK MOVING UP FROM NORTHWESTERN OREGON WILL BE OVER THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. CEILINGS LOWERING DOWN INTO THE 1000-2000 FOOT RANGE
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION INCREASING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

KSEA...7000 FOOT DECK ARRIVING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. CEILINGS LOWERING
DOWN TO 1000-2000 FEET BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK 1015 MB SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS PATTERN
WILL CREATE LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASING MID DAY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER MOST
OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY THEN EASING THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STRAIT LATE IN THE DAY. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML











000
FXUS66 KOTX 230350
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
850 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm system will move through the region tonight and
Wednesday bringing the potential for thunderstorms and heavy rain.
Cool and windy weather is expected for Thursday. Temperatures
will rebound by the weekend and be accompanied by dry conditions.
Hot weather will return to the area on Sunday and early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Minor update to adjust PoPs across the southeast zones and the
lower basin. Regional radar mosaic shows a persistent band of
showers and thunderstorms tracking northeast from the NE Blue
Mts, across the Idaho Palouse and into western Shoshone County.
There are also a few cells popping up over the lower basin with
quite a bit of convection to the south that will track north over
the next few hours. Cells are generally weakening as they move
north into the forecast area. So far only light to moderate
showers over the Cascade fires. There may be some stronger cells
tracking over the fires later tonight or they may track just
barely to the east of the fires. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A low pressure system circulating off of southeast BC
will continue to push moisture across the Inland Northwest with
showers and thunderstorms affecting all TAF sites. The strongest
thunderstorms are expected to develop over northeast OR and track
into southeast WA and into the central portions of the ID
panhandle. Gusty outflow winds and small hail will be possible
with these thunderstorms through the evening. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms will continue overnight but confidence
is low that they will affect any particular TAF site. -TSRA will
be more widespread Wednesday afternoon with thunderstorms capable
of producing heavy rain, small hail and gusty outflow winds. /EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        62  83  52  69  51  77 /  40  50  80  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  60  84  53  68  52  76 /  40  50  80  20  10   0
Pullman        62  84  49  68  46  76 /  50  40  70  10   0   0
Lewiston       65  90  58  77  57  85 /  50  40  60  10   0   0
Colville       58  81  51  71  51  78 /  20  60  80  40  10   0
Sandpoint      58  85  51  65  49  73 /  30  50  80  50  10   0
Kellogg        58  85  52  64  50  71 /  50  40  80  20  10   0
Moses Lake     66  83  56  77  57  85 /  30  50  40  10   0   0
Wenatchee      63  75  59  74  59  85 /  40  70  40  10   0   0
Omak           60  77  55  76  53  85 /  20  80  60  20  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from 8 AM PDT Wednesday through Wednesday
     evening for East Slopes Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley-
     Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 230350
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
850 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm system will move through the region tonight and
Wednesday bringing the potential for thunderstorms and heavy rain.
Cool and windy weather is expected for Thursday. Temperatures
will rebound by the weekend and be accompanied by dry conditions.
Hot weather will return to the area on Sunday and early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Minor update to adjust PoPs across the southeast zones and the
lower basin. Regional radar mosaic shows a persistent band of
showers and thunderstorms tracking northeast from the NE Blue
Mts, across the Idaho Palouse and into western Shoshone County.
There are also a few cells popping up over the lower basin with
quite a bit of convection to the south that will track north over
the next few hours. Cells are generally weakening as they move
north into the forecast area. So far only light to moderate
showers over the Cascade fires. There may be some stronger cells
tracking over the fires later tonight or they may track just
barely to the east of the fires. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A low pressure system circulating off of southeast BC
will continue to push moisture across the Inland Northwest with
showers and thunderstorms affecting all TAF sites. The strongest
thunderstorms are expected to develop over northeast OR and track
into southeast WA and into the central portions of the ID
panhandle. Gusty outflow winds and small hail will be possible
with these thunderstorms through the evening. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms will continue overnight but confidence
is low that they will affect any particular TAF site. -TSRA will
be more widespread Wednesday afternoon with thunderstorms capable
of producing heavy rain, small hail and gusty outflow winds. /EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        62  83  52  69  51  77 /  40  50  80  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  60  84  53  68  52  76 /  40  50  80  20  10   0
Pullman        62  84  49  68  46  76 /  50  40  70  10   0   0
Lewiston       65  90  58  77  57  85 /  50  40  60  10   0   0
Colville       58  81  51  71  51  78 /  20  60  80  40  10   0
Sandpoint      58  85  51  65  49  73 /  30  50  80  50  10   0
Kellogg        58  85  52  64  50  71 /  50  40  80  20  10   0
Moses Lake     66  83  56  77  57  85 /  30  50  40  10   0   0
Wenatchee      63  75  59  74  59  85 /  40  70  40  10   0   0
Omak           60  77  55  76  53  85 /  20  80  60  20  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from 8 AM PDT Wednesday through Wednesday
     evening for East Slopes Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley-
     Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 230350
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
850 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm system will move through the region tonight and
Wednesday bringing the potential for thunderstorms and heavy rain.
Cool and windy weather is expected for Thursday. Temperatures
will rebound by the weekend and be accompanied by dry conditions.
Hot weather will return to the area on Sunday and early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Minor update to adjust PoPs across the southeast zones and the
lower basin. Regional radar mosaic shows a persistent band of
showers and thunderstorms tracking northeast from the NE Blue
Mts, across the Idaho Palouse and into western Shoshone County.
There are also a few cells popping up over the lower basin with
quite a bit of convection to the south that will track north over
the next few hours. Cells are generally weakening as they move
north into the forecast area. So far only light to moderate
showers over the Cascade fires. There may be some stronger cells
tracking over the fires later tonight or they may track just
barely to the east of the fires. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A low pressure system circulating off of southeast BC
will continue to push moisture across the Inland Northwest with
showers and thunderstorms affecting all TAF sites. The strongest
thunderstorms are expected to develop over northeast OR and track
into southeast WA and into the central portions of the ID
panhandle. Gusty outflow winds and small hail will be possible
with these thunderstorms through the evening. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms will continue overnight but confidence
is low that they will affect any particular TAF site. -TSRA will
be more widespread Wednesday afternoon with thunderstorms capable
of producing heavy rain, small hail and gusty outflow winds. /EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        62  83  52  69  51  77 /  40  50  80  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  60  84  53  68  52  76 /  40  50  80  20  10   0
Pullman        62  84  49  68  46  76 /  50  40  70  10   0   0
Lewiston       65  90  58  77  57  85 /  50  40  60  10   0   0
Colville       58  81  51  71  51  78 /  20  60  80  40  10   0
Sandpoint      58  85  51  65  49  73 /  30  50  80  50  10   0
Kellogg        58  85  52  64  50  71 /  50  40  80  20  10   0
Moses Lake     66  83  56  77  57  85 /  30  50  40  10   0   0
Wenatchee      63  75  59  74  59  85 /  40  70  40  10   0   0
Omak           60  77  55  76  53  85 /  20  80  60  20  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from 8 AM PDT Wednesday through Wednesday
     evening for East Slopes Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley-
     Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 230350
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
850 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm system will move through the region tonight and
Wednesday bringing the potential for thunderstorms and heavy rain.
Cool and windy weather is expected for Thursday. Temperatures
will rebound by the weekend and be accompanied by dry conditions.
Hot weather will return to the area on Sunday and early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Minor update to adjust PoPs across the southeast zones and the
lower basin. Regional radar mosaic shows a persistent band of
showers and thunderstorms tracking northeast from the NE Blue
Mts, across the Idaho Palouse and into western Shoshone County.
There are also a few cells popping up over the lower basin with
quite a bit of convection to the south that will track north over
the next few hours. Cells are generally weakening as they move
north into the forecast area. So far only light to moderate
showers over the Cascade fires. There may be some stronger cells
tracking over the fires later tonight or they may track just
barely to the east of the fires. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A low pressure system circulating off of southeast BC
will continue to push moisture across the Inland Northwest with
showers and thunderstorms affecting all TAF sites. The strongest
thunderstorms are expected to develop over northeast OR and track
into southeast WA and into the central portions of the ID
panhandle. Gusty outflow winds and small hail will be possible
with these thunderstorms through the evening. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms will continue overnight but confidence
is low that they will affect any particular TAF site. -TSRA will
be more widespread Wednesday afternoon with thunderstorms capable
of producing heavy rain, small hail and gusty outflow winds. /EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        62  83  52  69  51  77 /  40  50  80  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  60  84  53  68  52  76 /  40  50  80  20  10   0
Pullman        62  84  49  68  46  76 /  50  40  70  10   0   0
Lewiston       65  90  58  77  57  85 /  50  40  60  10   0   0
Colville       58  81  51  71  51  78 /  20  60  80  40  10   0
Sandpoint      58  85  51  65  49  73 /  30  50  80  50  10   0
Kellogg        58  85  52  64  50  71 /  50  40  80  20  10   0
Moses Lake     66  83  56  77  57  85 /  30  50  40  10   0   0
Wenatchee      63  75  59  74  59  85 /  40  70  40  10   0   0
Omak           60  77  55  76  53  85 /  20  80  60  20  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from 8 AM PDT Wednesday through Wednesday
     evening for East Slopes Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley-
     Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 230347
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
847 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER A CLOUDY AND WET START TO
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A MIX OF SUNSHINE AND SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
DRIER AND MORE SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES PUSH 90F LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&
.UPDATE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONE STORM WAS PARTICULARLY STRONG AND
SEVERAL SEVER THUNDERSTORMS WERE ISSUED FOR IT AS IT MOVED ACROSS THE
LANE COUNTY CASCADES AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS THERE
ARE PLENTY OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES...WHICH  AN
ISOLATED CELL MAY SKIRT WEST OF THE CASCADES AT TIMES THIS EVENING.
THE THUNDERSTORMS SEEM TO BE WEAKENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF SOLAR
HEATING...BUT THE THREAT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING AS A STRONG AND COOL UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THIS EVENING...A VORT MAX...APPARENT
IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...NEAR THE BAY AREA WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW BREAKS CREEPING INTO THE
CASCADES. A DESTABILIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CONVECTION IS
BEGINNING TO FIRE EAST OF THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES NEAR BEND. WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SOME OF THIS CONVECTION TO
BEGIN DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CREST...BUT THERE STILL
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH...IF ANY...WILL DEVELOP. THE LATEST
RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE LANE AND LINN COUNTY CASCADES...BUT IF THE CURRENT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER TOO MUCH LONGER THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY STAY ENTIRELY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THE LATTER IDEA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF
ANY STORMS DO BREAK THE CAP ON OUR SIDE OF THE CREST...40-45 KT OF
0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-750 J/KG WILL AID STORM
ORGANIZATION. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS OF CONCERN IF
STORMS WERE TO MATERIALIZE. AGAIN...THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO
EXPERIENCE SUCH STORMS IS PRIMARILY NEAR THE CASCADE CREST...SOUTH OF
MOUNT JEFFERSON.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 135W...DUE
WEST OF OREGON...WILL ELONGATE FURTHER TONIGHT...TURNING THE MID
LEVEL FLOW OVER NORTHWEST OREGON SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY. THE NAM
BRINGS A PIECE OF THE VORT MAX/PV ANOMALY NEAR 130W AND 35N ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WITH NEGATIVE THETAE LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
700-500MB ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...AND REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE/LEFT EXIT REGION OF TWO UPPER LEVEL JETS...WE MAY SEE
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN OREGON LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO THE
THUNDER MENTION WAS LIMITED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE. THE LATEST HRRR
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY RIGHT ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AND
POINTS EAST...BUT GIVEN THE PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ELONGATING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 135W WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. STRONG
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY ORGANIZED NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE OREGON COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOME MODEST MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE DYNAMICS
MAY LEAD TO A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE BAND OF RAIN SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID LEVEL FRONT MAY LEAD TO A RATHER
ABRUPT END TO THE RAIN/CLOUDS EARLY TO MID WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ANY CLEARING WILL NOT LAST LONG...AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD DESTABILIZE QUICKLY...AND A SPRING-LIKE PATTERN OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ENSUE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THE MENTION OF THUNDER WAS
INCREASED TO CHANCE WORDING.

WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERING JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON COAST WEDNESDAY THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR SURFACE WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO HAVE A
BIT MORE OF A S TO SSE COMPONENT THAN OTHERWISE EXPECTED. COMBINED
WITH WSW WINDS OF 25 KT AT 900MB AND 40KT AT 500MB...A RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING UPDRAFT COULD ROTATE BRIEFLY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW IN THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE CWA...BUT
IT WILL STILL BE WORTH MONITORING. THE MORE EXPECTED HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WERE ADDED TO THE THUNDER WORDING IN THE
GRIDS.

ON THE FIRE FRONT...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE WETTING RAINS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
LIKELY PUSHING AN INCH OF RAIN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED WETTING RAINS ARE LESS LIKELY TOWARDS
LANE COUNTY...BUT CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT A DRYING TREND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS
AMPLIFYING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD
MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND LOCATION.  -MCCOY
&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS AND RAIN AS AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA STARTING AROUND 10Z WED. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AFT 12Z...
WITH MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FT POSSIBLE. LOCAL POCKETS OF IFR
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN...AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WED. THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY WED MORNING THROUGH WED EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 3000 FT AND AN OVERCAST DECK ABOVE
5000 FT. EXPECT RAIN TO INCREASE AFT 12Z WITH CIGS LOWERING TO
LOW VFR TO HIGHER MVFR. 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING KPDX AND APPROACHES MAINLY AFTER 12Z WED AND CONTINUING
THROUGH WED EVENING. CULLEN/27

&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...KEEPING WINDS 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT TONIGHT
WITH A CONTINUED SMALL W-NW SWELL.

A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BOTH S WINDS ALONG THE
COASTAL INNER WATERS AND ALSO OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS AS THE
SURFACE LOW PUSHES ACROSS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER SO WILL LET NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE NEXT MODEL CYCLE
BEFORE POTENTIALLY RAISING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. LATER THIS
WEEK...HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC AS THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDS
OVER N CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N WINDS AND
STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$


MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 230347
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
847 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER A CLOUDY AND WET START TO
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A MIX OF SUNSHINE AND SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
DRIER AND MORE SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES PUSH 90F LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&
.UPDATE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONE STORM WAS PARTICULARLY STRONG AND
SEVERAL SEVER THUNDERSTORMS WERE ISSUED FOR IT AS IT MOVED ACROSS THE
LANE COUNTY CASCADES AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS THERE
ARE PLENTY OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES...WHICH  AN
ISOLATED CELL MAY SKIRT WEST OF THE CASCADES AT TIMES THIS EVENING.
THE THUNDERSTORMS SEEM TO BE WEAKENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF SOLAR
HEATING...BUT THE THREAT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING AS A STRONG AND COOL UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THIS EVENING...A VORT MAX...APPARENT
IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...NEAR THE BAY AREA WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW BREAKS CREEPING INTO THE
CASCADES. A DESTABILIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CONVECTION IS
BEGINNING TO FIRE EAST OF THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES NEAR BEND. WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SOME OF THIS CONVECTION TO
BEGIN DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CREST...BUT THERE STILL
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH...IF ANY...WILL DEVELOP. THE LATEST
RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE LANE AND LINN COUNTY CASCADES...BUT IF THE CURRENT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER TOO MUCH LONGER THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY STAY ENTIRELY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THE LATTER IDEA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF
ANY STORMS DO BREAK THE CAP ON OUR SIDE OF THE CREST...40-45 KT OF
0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-750 J/KG WILL AID STORM
ORGANIZATION. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS OF CONCERN IF
STORMS WERE TO MATERIALIZE. AGAIN...THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO
EXPERIENCE SUCH STORMS IS PRIMARILY NEAR THE CASCADE CREST...SOUTH OF
MOUNT JEFFERSON.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 135W...DUE
WEST OF OREGON...WILL ELONGATE FURTHER TONIGHT...TURNING THE MID
LEVEL FLOW OVER NORTHWEST OREGON SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY. THE NAM
BRINGS A PIECE OF THE VORT MAX/PV ANOMALY NEAR 130W AND 35N ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WITH NEGATIVE THETAE LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
700-500MB ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...AND REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE/LEFT EXIT REGION OF TWO UPPER LEVEL JETS...WE MAY SEE
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN OREGON LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO THE
THUNDER MENTION WAS LIMITED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE. THE LATEST HRRR
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY RIGHT ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AND
POINTS EAST...BUT GIVEN THE PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ELONGATING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 135W WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. STRONG
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY ORGANIZED NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE OREGON COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOME MODEST MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE DYNAMICS
MAY LEAD TO A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE BAND OF RAIN SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID LEVEL FRONT MAY LEAD TO A RATHER
ABRUPT END TO THE RAIN/CLOUDS EARLY TO MID WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ANY CLEARING WILL NOT LAST LONG...AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD DESTABILIZE QUICKLY...AND A SPRING-LIKE PATTERN OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ENSUE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THE MENTION OF THUNDER WAS
INCREASED TO CHANCE WORDING.

WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERING JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON COAST WEDNESDAY THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR SURFACE WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO HAVE A
BIT MORE OF A S TO SSE COMPONENT THAN OTHERWISE EXPECTED. COMBINED
WITH WSW WINDS OF 25 KT AT 900MB AND 40KT AT 500MB...A RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING UPDRAFT COULD ROTATE BRIEFLY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW IN THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE CWA...BUT
IT WILL STILL BE WORTH MONITORING. THE MORE EXPECTED HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WERE ADDED TO THE THUNDER WORDING IN THE
GRIDS.

ON THE FIRE FRONT...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE WETTING RAINS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
LIKELY PUSHING AN INCH OF RAIN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED WETTING RAINS ARE LESS LIKELY TOWARDS
LANE COUNTY...BUT CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT A DRYING TREND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS
AMPLIFYING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD
MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND LOCATION.  -MCCOY
&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS AND RAIN AS AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA STARTING AROUND 10Z WED. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AFT 12Z...
WITH MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FT POSSIBLE. LOCAL POCKETS OF IFR
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN...AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WED. THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY WED MORNING THROUGH WED EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 3000 FT AND AN OVERCAST DECK ABOVE
5000 FT. EXPECT RAIN TO INCREASE AFT 12Z WITH CIGS LOWERING TO
LOW VFR TO HIGHER MVFR. 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING KPDX AND APPROACHES MAINLY AFTER 12Z WED AND CONTINUING
THROUGH WED EVENING. CULLEN/27

&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...KEEPING WINDS 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT TONIGHT
WITH A CONTINUED SMALL W-NW SWELL.

A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BOTH S WINDS ALONG THE
COASTAL INNER WATERS AND ALSO OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS AS THE
SURFACE LOW PUSHES ACROSS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER SO WILL LET NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE NEXT MODEL CYCLE
BEFORE POTENTIALLY RAISING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. LATER THIS
WEEK...HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC AS THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDS
OVER N CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N WINDS AND
STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$


MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 230347
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
847 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER A CLOUDY AND WET START TO
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A MIX OF SUNSHINE AND SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
DRIER AND MORE SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES PUSH 90F LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&
.UPDATE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONE STORM WAS PARTICULARLY STRONG AND
SEVERAL SEVER THUNDERSTORMS WERE ISSUED FOR IT AS IT MOVED ACROSS THE
LANE COUNTY CASCADES AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS THERE
ARE PLENTY OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES...WHICH  AN
ISOLATED CELL MAY SKIRT WEST OF THE CASCADES AT TIMES THIS EVENING.
THE THUNDERSTORMS SEEM TO BE WEAKENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF SOLAR
HEATING...BUT THE THREAT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING AS A STRONG AND COOL UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THIS EVENING...A VORT MAX...APPARENT
IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...NEAR THE BAY AREA WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW BREAKS CREEPING INTO THE
CASCADES. A DESTABILIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CONVECTION IS
BEGINNING TO FIRE EAST OF THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES NEAR BEND. WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SOME OF THIS CONVECTION TO
BEGIN DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CREST...BUT THERE STILL
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH...IF ANY...WILL DEVELOP. THE LATEST
RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE LANE AND LINN COUNTY CASCADES...BUT IF THE CURRENT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER TOO MUCH LONGER THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY STAY ENTIRELY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THE LATTER IDEA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF
ANY STORMS DO BREAK THE CAP ON OUR SIDE OF THE CREST...40-45 KT OF
0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-750 J/KG WILL AID STORM
ORGANIZATION. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS OF CONCERN IF
STORMS WERE TO MATERIALIZE. AGAIN...THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO
EXPERIENCE SUCH STORMS IS PRIMARILY NEAR THE CASCADE CREST...SOUTH OF
MOUNT JEFFERSON.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 135W...DUE
WEST OF OREGON...WILL ELONGATE FURTHER TONIGHT...TURNING THE MID
LEVEL FLOW OVER NORTHWEST OREGON SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY. THE NAM
BRINGS A PIECE OF THE VORT MAX/PV ANOMALY NEAR 130W AND 35N ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WITH NEGATIVE THETAE LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
700-500MB ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...AND REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE/LEFT EXIT REGION OF TWO UPPER LEVEL JETS...WE MAY SEE
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN OREGON LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO THE
THUNDER MENTION WAS LIMITED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE. THE LATEST HRRR
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY RIGHT ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AND
POINTS EAST...BUT GIVEN THE PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ELONGATING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 135W WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. STRONG
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY ORGANIZED NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE OREGON COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOME MODEST MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE DYNAMICS
MAY LEAD TO A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE BAND OF RAIN SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID LEVEL FRONT MAY LEAD TO A RATHER
ABRUPT END TO THE RAIN/CLOUDS EARLY TO MID WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ANY CLEARING WILL NOT LAST LONG...AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD DESTABILIZE QUICKLY...AND A SPRING-LIKE PATTERN OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ENSUE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THE MENTION OF THUNDER WAS
INCREASED TO CHANCE WORDING.

WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERING JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON COAST WEDNESDAY THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR SURFACE WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO HAVE A
BIT MORE OF A S TO SSE COMPONENT THAN OTHERWISE EXPECTED. COMBINED
WITH WSW WINDS OF 25 KT AT 900MB AND 40KT AT 500MB...A RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING UPDRAFT COULD ROTATE BRIEFLY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW IN THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE CWA...BUT
IT WILL STILL BE WORTH MONITORING. THE MORE EXPECTED HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WERE ADDED TO THE THUNDER WORDING IN THE
GRIDS.

ON THE FIRE FRONT...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE WETTING RAINS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
LIKELY PUSHING AN INCH OF RAIN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED WETTING RAINS ARE LESS LIKELY TOWARDS
LANE COUNTY...BUT CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT A DRYING TREND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS
AMPLIFYING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD
MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND LOCATION.  -MCCOY
&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS AND RAIN AS AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA STARTING AROUND 10Z WED. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AFT 12Z...
WITH MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FT POSSIBLE. LOCAL POCKETS OF IFR
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN...AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WED. THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY WED MORNING THROUGH WED EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 3000 FT AND AN OVERCAST DECK ABOVE
5000 FT. EXPECT RAIN TO INCREASE AFT 12Z WITH CIGS LOWERING TO
LOW VFR TO HIGHER MVFR. 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING KPDX AND APPROACHES MAINLY AFTER 12Z WED AND CONTINUING
THROUGH WED EVENING. CULLEN/27

&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...KEEPING WINDS 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT TONIGHT
WITH A CONTINUED SMALL W-NW SWELL.

A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BOTH S WINDS ALONG THE
COASTAL INNER WATERS AND ALSO OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS AS THE
SURFACE LOW PUSHES ACROSS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER SO WILL LET NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE NEXT MODEL CYCLE
BEFORE POTENTIALLY RAISING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. LATER THIS
WEEK...HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC AS THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDS
OVER N CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N WINDS AND
STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$


MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 230347
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
847 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER A CLOUDY AND WET START TO
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A MIX OF SUNSHINE AND SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
DRIER AND MORE SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES PUSH 90F LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&
.UPDATE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONE STORM WAS PARTICULARLY STRONG AND
SEVERAL SEVER THUNDERSTORMS WERE ISSUED FOR IT AS IT MOVED ACROSS THE
LANE COUNTY CASCADES AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS THERE
ARE PLENTY OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES...WHICH  AN
ISOLATED CELL MAY SKIRT WEST OF THE CASCADES AT TIMES THIS EVENING.
THE THUNDERSTORMS SEEM TO BE WEAKENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF SOLAR
HEATING...BUT THE THREAT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING AS A STRONG AND COOL UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THIS EVENING...A VORT MAX...APPARENT
IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...NEAR THE BAY AREA WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW BREAKS CREEPING INTO THE
CASCADES. A DESTABILIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CONVECTION IS
BEGINNING TO FIRE EAST OF THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES NEAR BEND. WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SOME OF THIS CONVECTION TO
BEGIN DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CREST...BUT THERE STILL
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH...IF ANY...WILL DEVELOP. THE LATEST
RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE LANE AND LINN COUNTY CASCADES...BUT IF THE CURRENT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER TOO MUCH LONGER THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY STAY ENTIRELY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THE LATTER IDEA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF
ANY STORMS DO BREAK THE CAP ON OUR SIDE OF THE CREST...40-45 KT OF
0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-750 J/KG WILL AID STORM
ORGANIZATION. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS OF CONCERN IF
STORMS WERE TO MATERIALIZE. AGAIN...THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO
EXPERIENCE SUCH STORMS IS PRIMARILY NEAR THE CASCADE CREST...SOUTH OF
MOUNT JEFFERSON.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 135W...DUE
WEST OF OREGON...WILL ELONGATE FURTHER TONIGHT...TURNING THE MID
LEVEL FLOW OVER NORTHWEST OREGON SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY. THE NAM
BRINGS A PIECE OF THE VORT MAX/PV ANOMALY NEAR 130W AND 35N ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WITH NEGATIVE THETAE LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
700-500MB ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...AND REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE/LEFT EXIT REGION OF TWO UPPER LEVEL JETS...WE MAY SEE
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN OREGON LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO THE
THUNDER MENTION WAS LIMITED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE. THE LATEST HRRR
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY RIGHT ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AND
POINTS EAST...BUT GIVEN THE PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ELONGATING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 135W WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. STRONG
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY ORGANIZED NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE OREGON COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOME MODEST MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE DYNAMICS
MAY LEAD TO A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE BAND OF RAIN SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID LEVEL FRONT MAY LEAD TO A RATHER
ABRUPT END TO THE RAIN/CLOUDS EARLY TO MID WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ANY CLEARING WILL NOT LAST LONG...AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD DESTABILIZE QUICKLY...AND A SPRING-LIKE PATTERN OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ENSUE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THE MENTION OF THUNDER WAS
INCREASED TO CHANCE WORDING.

WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERING JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON COAST WEDNESDAY THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR SURFACE WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO HAVE A
BIT MORE OF A S TO SSE COMPONENT THAN OTHERWISE EXPECTED. COMBINED
WITH WSW WINDS OF 25 KT AT 900MB AND 40KT AT 500MB...A RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING UPDRAFT COULD ROTATE BRIEFLY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW IN THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE CWA...BUT
IT WILL STILL BE WORTH MONITORING. THE MORE EXPECTED HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WERE ADDED TO THE THUNDER WORDING IN THE
GRIDS.

ON THE FIRE FRONT...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE WETTING RAINS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
LIKELY PUSHING AN INCH OF RAIN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED WETTING RAINS ARE LESS LIKELY TOWARDS
LANE COUNTY...BUT CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT A DRYING TREND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS
AMPLIFYING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD
MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND LOCATION.  -MCCOY
&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS AND RAIN AS AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA STARTING AROUND 10Z WED. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AFT 12Z...
WITH MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FT POSSIBLE. LOCAL POCKETS OF IFR
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN...AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WED. THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY WED MORNING THROUGH WED EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 3000 FT AND AN OVERCAST DECK ABOVE
5000 FT. EXPECT RAIN TO INCREASE AFT 12Z WITH CIGS LOWERING TO
LOW VFR TO HIGHER MVFR. 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING KPDX AND APPROACHES MAINLY AFTER 12Z WED AND CONTINUING
THROUGH WED EVENING. CULLEN/27

&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...KEEPING WINDS 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT TONIGHT
WITH A CONTINUED SMALL W-NW SWELL.

A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BOTH S WINDS ALONG THE
COASTAL INNER WATERS AND ALSO OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS AS THE
SURFACE LOW PUSHES ACROSS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER SO WILL LET NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE NEXT MODEL CYCLE
BEFORE POTENTIALLY RAISING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. LATER THIS
WEEK...HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC AS THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDS
OVER N CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N WINDS AND
STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$


MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 230347
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
847 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER A CLOUDY AND WET START TO
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A MIX OF SUNSHINE AND SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
DRIER AND MORE SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES PUSH 90F LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&
.UPDATE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONE STORM WAS PARTICULARLY STRONG AND
SEVERAL SEVER THUNDERSTORMS WERE ISSUED FOR IT AS IT MOVED ACROSS THE
LANE COUNTY CASCADES AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS THERE
ARE PLENTY OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES...WHICH  AN
ISOLATED CELL MAY SKIRT WEST OF THE CASCADES AT TIMES THIS EVENING.
THE THUNDERSTORMS SEEM TO BE WEAKENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF SOLAR
HEATING...BUT THE THREAT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING AS A STRONG AND COOL UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THIS EVENING...A VORT MAX...APPARENT
IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...NEAR THE BAY AREA WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW BREAKS CREEPING INTO THE
CASCADES. A DESTABILIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CONVECTION IS
BEGINNING TO FIRE EAST OF THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES NEAR BEND. WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SOME OF THIS CONVECTION TO
BEGIN DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CREST...BUT THERE STILL
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH...IF ANY...WILL DEVELOP. THE LATEST
RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE LANE AND LINN COUNTY CASCADES...BUT IF THE CURRENT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER TOO MUCH LONGER THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY STAY ENTIRELY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THE LATTER IDEA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF
ANY STORMS DO BREAK THE CAP ON OUR SIDE OF THE CREST...40-45 KT OF
0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-750 J/KG WILL AID STORM
ORGANIZATION. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS OF CONCERN IF
STORMS WERE TO MATERIALIZE. AGAIN...THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO
EXPERIENCE SUCH STORMS IS PRIMARILY NEAR THE CASCADE CREST...SOUTH OF
MOUNT JEFFERSON.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 135W...DUE
WEST OF OREGON...WILL ELONGATE FURTHER TONIGHT...TURNING THE MID
LEVEL FLOW OVER NORTHWEST OREGON SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY. THE NAM
BRINGS A PIECE OF THE VORT MAX/PV ANOMALY NEAR 130W AND 35N ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WITH NEGATIVE THETAE LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
700-500MB ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...AND REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE/LEFT EXIT REGION OF TWO UPPER LEVEL JETS...WE MAY SEE
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN OREGON LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO THE
THUNDER MENTION WAS LIMITED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE. THE LATEST HRRR
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY RIGHT ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AND
POINTS EAST...BUT GIVEN THE PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ELONGATING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 135W WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. STRONG
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY ORGANIZED NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE OREGON COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOME MODEST MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE DYNAMICS
MAY LEAD TO A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE BAND OF RAIN SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID LEVEL FRONT MAY LEAD TO A RATHER
ABRUPT END TO THE RAIN/CLOUDS EARLY TO MID WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ANY CLEARING WILL NOT LAST LONG...AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD DESTABILIZE QUICKLY...AND A SPRING-LIKE PATTERN OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ENSUE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THE MENTION OF THUNDER WAS
INCREASED TO CHANCE WORDING.

WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERING JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON COAST WEDNESDAY THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR SURFACE WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO HAVE A
BIT MORE OF A S TO SSE COMPONENT THAN OTHERWISE EXPECTED. COMBINED
WITH WSW WINDS OF 25 KT AT 900MB AND 40KT AT 500MB...A RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING UPDRAFT COULD ROTATE BRIEFLY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW IN THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE CWA...BUT
IT WILL STILL BE WORTH MONITORING. THE MORE EXPECTED HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WERE ADDED TO THE THUNDER WORDING IN THE
GRIDS.

ON THE FIRE FRONT...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE WETTING RAINS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
LIKELY PUSHING AN INCH OF RAIN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED WETTING RAINS ARE LESS LIKELY TOWARDS
LANE COUNTY...BUT CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT A DRYING TREND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS
AMPLIFYING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD
MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND LOCATION.  -MCCOY
&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS AND RAIN AS AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA STARTING AROUND 10Z WED. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AFT 12Z...
WITH MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FT POSSIBLE. LOCAL POCKETS OF IFR
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN...AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WED. THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY WED MORNING THROUGH WED EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 3000 FT AND AN OVERCAST DECK ABOVE
5000 FT. EXPECT RAIN TO INCREASE AFT 12Z WITH CIGS LOWERING TO
LOW VFR TO HIGHER MVFR. 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING KPDX AND APPROACHES MAINLY AFTER 12Z WED AND CONTINUING
THROUGH WED EVENING. CULLEN/27

&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...KEEPING WINDS 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT TONIGHT
WITH A CONTINUED SMALL W-NW SWELL.

A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BOTH S WINDS ALONG THE
COASTAL INNER WATERS AND ALSO OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS AS THE
SURFACE LOW PUSHES ACROSS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER SO WILL LET NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE NEXT MODEL CYCLE
BEFORE POTENTIALLY RAISING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. LATER THIS
WEEK...HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC AS THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDS
OVER N CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N WINDS AND
STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$


MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 230347
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
847 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER A CLOUDY AND WET START TO
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A MIX OF SUNSHINE AND SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
DRIER AND MORE SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES PUSH 90F LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&
.UPDATE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONE STORM WAS PARTICULARLY STRONG AND
SEVERAL SEVER THUNDERSTORMS WERE ISSUED FOR IT AS IT MOVED ACROSS THE
LANE COUNTY CASCADES AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS THERE
ARE PLENTY OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES...WHICH  AN
ISOLATED CELL MAY SKIRT WEST OF THE CASCADES AT TIMES THIS EVENING.
THE THUNDERSTORMS SEEM TO BE WEAKENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF SOLAR
HEATING...BUT THE THREAT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING AS A STRONG AND COOL UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THIS EVENING...A VORT MAX...APPARENT
IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...NEAR THE BAY AREA WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW BREAKS CREEPING INTO THE
CASCADES. A DESTABILIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CONVECTION IS
BEGINNING TO FIRE EAST OF THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES NEAR BEND. WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SOME OF THIS CONVECTION TO
BEGIN DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CREST...BUT THERE STILL
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH...IF ANY...WILL DEVELOP. THE LATEST
RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE LANE AND LINN COUNTY CASCADES...BUT IF THE CURRENT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER TOO MUCH LONGER THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY STAY ENTIRELY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THE LATTER IDEA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF
ANY STORMS DO BREAK THE CAP ON OUR SIDE OF THE CREST...40-45 KT OF
0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-750 J/KG WILL AID STORM
ORGANIZATION. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS OF CONCERN IF
STORMS WERE TO MATERIALIZE. AGAIN...THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO
EXPERIENCE SUCH STORMS IS PRIMARILY NEAR THE CASCADE CREST...SOUTH OF
MOUNT JEFFERSON.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 135W...DUE
WEST OF OREGON...WILL ELONGATE FURTHER TONIGHT...TURNING THE MID
LEVEL FLOW OVER NORTHWEST OREGON SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY. THE NAM
BRINGS A PIECE OF THE VORT MAX/PV ANOMALY NEAR 130W AND 35N ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WITH NEGATIVE THETAE LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
700-500MB ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...AND REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE/LEFT EXIT REGION OF TWO UPPER LEVEL JETS...WE MAY SEE
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN OREGON LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO THE
THUNDER MENTION WAS LIMITED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE. THE LATEST HRRR
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY RIGHT ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AND
POINTS EAST...BUT GIVEN THE PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ELONGATING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 135W WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. STRONG
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY ORGANIZED NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE OREGON COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOME MODEST MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE DYNAMICS
MAY LEAD TO A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE BAND OF RAIN SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID LEVEL FRONT MAY LEAD TO A RATHER
ABRUPT END TO THE RAIN/CLOUDS EARLY TO MID WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ANY CLEARING WILL NOT LAST LONG...AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD DESTABILIZE QUICKLY...AND A SPRING-LIKE PATTERN OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ENSUE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THE MENTION OF THUNDER WAS
INCREASED TO CHANCE WORDING.

WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERING JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON COAST WEDNESDAY THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR SURFACE WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO HAVE A
BIT MORE OF A S TO SSE COMPONENT THAN OTHERWISE EXPECTED. COMBINED
WITH WSW WINDS OF 25 KT AT 900MB AND 40KT AT 500MB...A RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING UPDRAFT COULD ROTATE BRIEFLY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW IN THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE CWA...BUT
IT WILL STILL BE WORTH MONITORING. THE MORE EXPECTED HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WERE ADDED TO THE THUNDER WORDING IN THE
GRIDS.

ON THE FIRE FRONT...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE WETTING RAINS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
LIKELY PUSHING AN INCH OF RAIN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED WETTING RAINS ARE LESS LIKELY TOWARDS
LANE COUNTY...BUT CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT A DRYING TREND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS
AMPLIFYING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD
MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND LOCATION.  -MCCOY
&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS AND RAIN AS AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA STARTING AROUND 10Z WED. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AFT 12Z...
WITH MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FT POSSIBLE. LOCAL POCKETS OF IFR
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN...AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WED. THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY WED MORNING THROUGH WED EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 3000 FT AND AN OVERCAST DECK ABOVE
5000 FT. EXPECT RAIN TO INCREASE AFT 12Z WITH CIGS LOWERING TO
LOW VFR TO HIGHER MVFR. 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING KPDX AND APPROACHES MAINLY AFTER 12Z WED AND CONTINUING
THROUGH WED EVENING. CULLEN/27

&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...KEEPING WINDS 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT TONIGHT
WITH A CONTINUED SMALL W-NW SWELL.

A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BOTH S WINDS ALONG THE
COASTAL INNER WATERS AND ALSO OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS AS THE
SURFACE LOW PUSHES ACROSS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER SO WILL LET NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE NEXT MODEL CYCLE
BEFORE POTENTIALLY RAISING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. LATER THIS
WEEK...HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC AS THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDS
OVER N CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N WINDS AND
STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$


MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 230347
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
847 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER A CLOUDY AND WET START TO
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A MIX OF SUNSHINE AND SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
DRIER AND MORE SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES PUSH 90F LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&
.UPDATE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONE STORM WAS PARTICULARLY STRONG AND
SEVERAL SEVER THUNDERSTORMS WERE ISSUED FOR IT AS IT MOVED ACROSS THE
LANE COUNTY CASCADES AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS THERE
ARE PLENTY OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES...WHICH  AN
ISOLATED CELL MAY SKIRT WEST OF THE CASCADES AT TIMES THIS EVENING.
THE THUNDERSTORMS SEEM TO BE WEAKENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF SOLAR
HEATING...BUT THE THREAT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING AS A STRONG AND COOL UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THIS EVENING...A VORT MAX...APPARENT
IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...NEAR THE BAY AREA WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW BREAKS CREEPING INTO THE
CASCADES. A DESTABILIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CONVECTION IS
BEGINNING TO FIRE EAST OF THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES NEAR BEND. WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SOME OF THIS CONVECTION TO
BEGIN DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CREST...BUT THERE STILL
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH...IF ANY...WILL DEVELOP. THE LATEST
RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE LANE AND LINN COUNTY CASCADES...BUT IF THE CURRENT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER TOO MUCH LONGER THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY STAY ENTIRELY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THE LATTER IDEA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF
ANY STORMS DO BREAK THE CAP ON OUR SIDE OF THE CREST...40-45 KT OF
0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-750 J/KG WILL AID STORM
ORGANIZATION. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS OF CONCERN IF
STORMS WERE TO MATERIALIZE. AGAIN...THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO
EXPERIENCE SUCH STORMS IS PRIMARILY NEAR THE CASCADE CREST...SOUTH OF
MOUNT JEFFERSON.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 135W...DUE
WEST OF OREGON...WILL ELONGATE FURTHER TONIGHT...TURNING THE MID
LEVEL FLOW OVER NORTHWEST OREGON SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY. THE NAM
BRINGS A PIECE OF THE VORT MAX/PV ANOMALY NEAR 130W AND 35N ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WITH NEGATIVE THETAE LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
700-500MB ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...AND REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE/LEFT EXIT REGION OF TWO UPPER LEVEL JETS...WE MAY SEE
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN OREGON LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO THE
THUNDER MENTION WAS LIMITED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE. THE LATEST HRRR
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY RIGHT ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AND
POINTS EAST...BUT GIVEN THE PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ELONGATING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 135W WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. STRONG
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY ORGANIZED NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE OREGON COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOME MODEST MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE DYNAMICS
MAY LEAD TO A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE BAND OF RAIN SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID LEVEL FRONT MAY LEAD TO A RATHER
ABRUPT END TO THE RAIN/CLOUDS EARLY TO MID WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ANY CLEARING WILL NOT LAST LONG...AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD DESTABILIZE QUICKLY...AND A SPRING-LIKE PATTERN OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ENSUE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THE MENTION OF THUNDER WAS
INCREASED TO CHANCE WORDING.

WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERING JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON COAST WEDNESDAY THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR SURFACE WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO HAVE A
BIT MORE OF A S TO SSE COMPONENT THAN OTHERWISE EXPECTED. COMBINED
WITH WSW WINDS OF 25 KT AT 900MB AND 40KT AT 500MB...A RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING UPDRAFT COULD ROTATE BRIEFLY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW IN THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE CWA...BUT
IT WILL STILL BE WORTH MONITORING. THE MORE EXPECTED HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WERE ADDED TO THE THUNDER WORDING IN THE
GRIDS.

ON THE FIRE FRONT...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE WETTING RAINS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
LIKELY PUSHING AN INCH OF RAIN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED WETTING RAINS ARE LESS LIKELY TOWARDS
LANE COUNTY...BUT CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT A DRYING TREND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS
AMPLIFYING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD
MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND LOCATION.  -MCCOY
&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS AND RAIN AS AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA STARTING AROUND 10Z WED. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AFT 12Z...
WITH MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FT POSSIBLE. LOCAL POCKETS OF IFR
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN...AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WED. THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY WED MORNING THROUGH WED EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 3000 FT AND AN OVERCAST DECK ABOVE
5000 FT. EXPECT RAIN TO INCREASE AFT 12Z WITH CIGS LOWERING TO
LOW VFR TO HIGHER MVFR. 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING KPDX AND APPROACHES MAINLY AFTER 12Z WED AND CONTINUING
THROUGH WED EVENING. CULLEN/27

&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...KEEPING WINDS 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT TONIGHT
WITH A CONTINUED SMALL W-NW SWELL.

A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BOTH S WINDS ALONG THE
COASTAL INNER WATERS AND ALSO OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS AS THE
SURFACE LOW PUSHES ACROSS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER SO WILL LET NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE NEXT MODEL CYCLE
BEFORE POTENTIALLY RAISING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. LATER THIS
WEEK...HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC AS THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDS
OVER N CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N WINDS AND
STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$


MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 230347
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
847 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER A CLOUDY AND WET START TO
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A MIX OF SUNSHINE AND SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
DRIER AND MORE SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES PUSH 90F LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&
.UPDATE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONE STORM WAS PARTICULARLY STRONG AND
SEVERAL SEVER THUNDERSTORMS WERE ISSUED FOR IT AS IT MOVED ACROSS THE
LANE COUNTY CASCADES AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS THERE
ARE PLENTY OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES...WHICH  AN
ISOLATED CELL MAY SKIRT WEST OF THE CASCADES AT TIMES THIS EVENING.
THE THUNDERSTORMS SEEM TO BE WEAKENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF SOLAR
HEATING...BUT THE THREAT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING AS A STRONG AND COOL UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THIS EVENING...A VORT MAX...APPARENT
IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...NEAR THE BAY AREA WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW BREAKS CREEPING INTO THE
CASCADES. A DESTABILIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CONVECTION IS
BEGINNING TO FIRE EAST OF THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES NEAR BEND. WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SOME OF THIS CONVECTION TO
BEGIN DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CREST...BUT THERE STILL
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH...IF ANY...WILL DEVELOP. THE LATEST
RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE LANE AND LINN COUNTY CASCADES...BUT IF THE CURRENT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER TOO MUCH LONGER THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY STAY ENTIRELY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THE LATTER IDEA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF
ANY STORMS DO BREAK THE CAP ON OUR SIDE OF THE CREST...40-45 KT OF
0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-750 J/KG WILL AID STORM
ORGANIZATION. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS OF CONCERN IF
STORMS WERE TO MATERIALIZE. AGAIN...THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO
EXPERIENCE SUCH STORMS IS PRIMARILY NEAR THE CASCADE CREST...SOUTH OF
MOUNT JEFFERSON.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 135W...DUE
WEST OF OREGON...WILL ELONGATE FURTHER TONIGHT...TURNING THE MID
LEVEL FLOW OVER NORTHWEST OREGON SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY. THE NAM
BRINGS A PIECE OF THE VORT MAX/PV ANOMALY NEAR 130W AND 35N ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WITH NEGATIVE THETAE LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
700-500MB ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...AND REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE/LEFT EXIT REGION OF TWO UPPER LEVEL JETS...WE MAY SEE
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN OREGON LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO THE
THUNDER MENTION WAS LIMITED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE. THE LATEST HRRR
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY RIGHT ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AND
POINTS EAST...BUT GIVEN THE PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ELONGATING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 135W WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. STRONG
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY ORGANIZED NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE OREGON COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOME MODEST MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE DYNAMICS
MAY LEAD TO A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE BAND OF RAIN SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID LEVEL FRONT MAY LEAD TO A RATHER
ABRUPT END TO THE RAIN/CLOUDS EARLY TO MID WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ANY CLEARING WILL NOT LAST LONG...AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD DESTABILIZE QUICKLY...AND A SPRING-LIKE PATTERN OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ENSUE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THE MENTION OF THUNDER WAS
INCREASED TO CHANCE WORDING.

WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERING JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON COAST WEDNESDAY THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR SURFACE WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO HAVE A
BIT MORE OF A S TO SSE COMPONENT THAN OTHERWISE EXPECTED. COMBINED
WITH WSW WINDS OF 25 KT AT 900MB AND 40KT AT 500MB...A RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING UPDRAFT COULD ROTATE BRIEFLY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW IN THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE CWA...BUT
IT WILL STILL BE WORTH MONITORING. THE MORE EXPECTED HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WERE ADDED TO THE THUNDER WORDING IN THE
GRIDS.

ON THE FIRE FRONT...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE WETTING RAINS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
LIKELY PUSHING AN INCH OF RAIN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED WETTING RAINS ARE LESS LIKELY TOWARDS
LANE COUNTY...BUT CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT A DRYING TREND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS
AMPLIFYING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD
MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND LOCATION.  -MCCOY
&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS AND RAIN AS AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA STARTING AROUND 10Z WED. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AFT 12Z...
WITH MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FT POSSIBLE. LOCAL POCKETS OF IFR
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN...AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WED. THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY WED MORNING THROUGH WED EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 3000 FT AND AN OVERCAST DECK ABOVE
5000 FT. EXPECT RAIN TO INCREASE AFT 12Z WITH CIGS LOWERING TO
LOW VFR TO HIGHER MVFR. 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING KPDX AND APPROACHES MAINLY AFTER 12Z WED AND CONTINUING
THROUGH WED EVENING. CULLEN/27

&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...KEEPING WINDS 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT TONIGHT
WITH A CONTINUED SMALL W-NW SWELL.

A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BOTH S WINDS ALONG THE
COASTAL INNER WATERS AND ALSO OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS AS THE
SURFACE LOW PUSHES ACROSS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER SO WILL LET NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE NEXT MODEL CYCLE
BEFORE POTENTIALLY RAISING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. LATER THIS
WEEK...HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC AS THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDS
OVER N CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N WINDS AND
STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$


MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 222334
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
434 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm system will move through the region tonight and
Wednesday bringing the potential for thunderstorms and heavy rain.
Cool and windy weather is expected for Thursday. Temperatures
will rebound by the weekend and be accompanied by dry conditions.
Hot weather will return to the area on Sunday and early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday night: A very active pattern is expected
over the Inland Northwest in the next 36 hours. Much of northeast
OR, into extreme southeast WA and into the Central Panhandle Mtns
has seen a good amount of sunshine through the first half of
today. This has destabilized the atmosphere with thunderstorms
popping up across much of northeast OR this afternoon. Further
north into southeast WA we still remain capped and less unstable.
I expect much of this thunderstorm activity will weaken as it
progresses northward through at least the early portions of the
afternoon. Mid level lapse rates will become more unstable through
the evening into tonight with Most Unstable CAPEs (or MUCAPEs) of
around 200-400 J/KG between the 700-300 mb layer. The best
instability closer to 400 J/KG in this layer will be across the
southeast portion of the forecast area this evening (generally
over the Palouse to the Central Panhandle Mtns and points
southward). We will also see some large scale forcing occurring
with a shortwave moving northward out of California into Oregon.
The southeast portion of the forecast area will also be in the
left exit region of a 100 kt jet streak. This forcing combined
with the increasing instability should result in some stronger
thunderstorms developing across the southeast portion of the
forecast area. Gusty outflow winds and small hail will be the
primary thunderstorm threat. I would not be surprised if some
thunderstorms approach severe levels.

The threat for thunderstorms will increase northward across the
region overnight. MUCAPEs away from the southeast portion of the
forecast area will not be as exciting closer to 200 J/KG in the
700-300 mb layer. This will be sufficient for the possibility of
isolated thunderstorms. The mid level front offshore associated
with the upper level low pressure system will begin to approach
the Cascades Wednesday morning. A band of moderate to heavy
rainfall is expected to form out ahead of the front. There will
also be the possibility for some thunderstorms embedded in this
ran band that may produce more intense rainfall rates.
Thunderstorms will continue to be possible over the Cascades
through the afternoon into the evening as the cold pool aloft
shifts over this area of the region. Rapid runoff from the heavy
rain is expected. Debris or mud flows will also be possible with
the highest concern for recent burn scared areas. A Flash Flood
Watch has been issued to cover this threat and is in effect for
Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.

Severe weather will also be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening,
mainly across the eastern half of the forecast area. The upper
level low will push across the Cascades just after peak heating.
Very strong upper level dynamics will accompany this wave.
Instability is a little bit of a question mark as there will be a
substantial amount of cloud cover along the mid level front. The
best possibility for sun breaks and instability will be in the
Panhandle where the best severe threat will be. Main threats will
be for outflow winds and hail. P-wats will also be up around an
inch, so these thunderstorms will be very wet. The good news is
that storm motion will be quick will move at approximately 25-30
mph to the northeast.

Winds will become gusty behind the cold front on Wednesday. Expect
sustained winds of 20-25 mph across the basin with gusts up to
30-35 mph by the late afternoon hours. /SVH

Thursday through Saturday night: A deep closed low will be moving
over the forecast area on Thursday. This low is anomalously deep
for this time of year. And the result will be much cooler
temperatures. In fact, some locations north and east of Spokane
won`t even reach 70F for a high. The clouds and showers should be
confined across the northern locations (north of Highway 2). We
could also see a few thunderstorms near the Canadian border. The
cold air aloft will cause the atmosphere to be unstable, but the
low moves east of our area during the afternoon, so the timing is
not optimal. The other aspect of Thursday will be the wind, 20-30
mph. Combined with the cooler temperatures, this will make for a
decidedly non-summerlike day.

The low moves out of the area Thursday night as high pressure
builds into the area. This will bring dry weather with a gradual
warming trend.  RJ

Sunday thru Tuesday... EC and GFS in good agreement on overall
pattern thru this period. Strong ridging over the region on Sunday
moves slightly east as a short wave moves onshore over the central
BC coast and the AK panhandle. Flow shifts to weak southwesterly
but models keep most of the precipitation and moisture well south
and east of the area. Above average temperatures on Sunday will
bump up a few degrees on Monday and Tuesday with little or no
chance of precipitation. JL

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A low pressure system circulating off of southeast BC
will continue to push moisture across the Inland Northwest with
showers and thunderstorms affecting all TAF sites. The strongest
thunderstorms are expected to develop over northeast OR and track
into southeast WA and into the central portions of the ID
panhandle. Gusty outflow winds and small hail will be possible
with these thunderstorms through the evening. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms will continue overnight but confidence
is low that they will affect any particular TAF site. -TSRA will
be more widespread Wednesday afternoon with thunderstorms capable
of producing heavy rain, small hail and gusty outflow winds. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        62  83  52  69  51  77 /  40  50  80  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  60  84  53  68  52  76 /  40  50  80  20  10   0
Pullman        62  84  49  68  46  76 /  50  40  70  10   0   0
Lewiston       65  90  58  77  57  85 /  50  40  60  10   0   0
Colville       58  81  51  71  51  78 /  20  60  80  40  10   0
Sandpoint      58  85  51  65  49  73 /  30  50  80  50  10   0
Kellogg        58  85  52  64  50  71 /  50  40  80  20  10   0
Moses Lake     66  83  56  77  57  85 /  30  50  40  10   0   0
Wenatchee      63  75  59  74  59  85 /  40  70  40  10   0   0
Omak           60  77  55  76  53  85 /  20  80  60  20  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for East Slopes Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley-
     Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 222334
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
434 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm system will move through the region tonight and
Wednesday bringing the potential for thunderstorms and heavy rain.
Cool and windy weather is expected for Thursday. Temperatures
will rebound by the weekend and be accompanied by dry conditions.
Hot weather will return to the area on Sunday and early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday night: A very active pattern is expected
over the Inland Northwest in the next 36 hours. Much of northeast
OR, into extreme southeast WA and into the Central Panhandle Mtns
has seen a good amount of sunshine through the first half of
today. This has destabilized the atmosphere with thunderstorms
popping up across much of northeast OR this afternoon. Further
north into southeast WA we still remain capped and less unstable.
I expect much of this thunderstorm activity will weaken as it
progresses northward through at least the early portions of the
afternoon. Mid level lapse rates will become more unstable through
the evening into tonight with Most Unstable CAPEs (or MUCAPEs) of
around 200-400 J/KG between the 700-300 mb layer. The best
instability closer to 400 J/KG in this layer will be across the
southeast portion of the forecast area this evening (generally
over the Palouse to the Central Panhandle Mtns and points
southward). We will also see some large scale forcing occurring
with a shortwave moving northward out of California into Oregon.
The southeast portion of the forecast area will also be in the
left exit region of a 100 kt jet streak. This forcing combined
with the increasing instability should result in some stronger
thunderstorms developing across the southeast portion of the
forecast area. Gusty outflow winds and small hail will be the
primary thunderstorm threat. I would not be surprised if some
thunderstorms approach severe levels.

The threat for thunderstorms will increase northward across the
region overnight. MUCAPEs away from the southeast portion of the
forecast area will not be as exciting closer to 200 J/KG in the
700-300 mb layer. This will be sufficient for the possibility of
isolated thunderstorms. The mid level front offshore associated
with the upper level low pressure system will begin to approach
the Cascades Wednesday morning. A band of moderate to heavy
rainfall is expected to form out ahead of the front. There will
also be the possibility for some thunderstorms embedded in this
ran band that may produce more intense rainfall rates.
Thunderstorms will continue to be possible over the Cascades
through the afternoon into the evening as the cold pool aloft
shifts over this area of the region. Rapid runoff from the heavy
rain is expected. Debris or mud flows will also be possible with
the highest concern for recent burn scared areas. A Flash Flood
Watch has been issued to cover this threat and is in effect for
Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.

Severe weather will also be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening,
mainly across the eastern half of the forecast area. The upper
level low will push across the Cascades just after peak heating.
Very strong upper level dynamics will accompany this wave.
Instability is a little bit of a question mark as there will be a
substantial amount of cloud cover along the mid level front. The
best possibility for sun breaks and instability will be in the
Panhandle where the best severe threat will be. Main threats will
be for outflow winds and hail. P-wats will also be up around an
inch, so these thunderstorms will be very wet. The good news is
that storm motion will be quick will move at approximately 25-30
mph to the northeast.

Winds will become gusty behind the cold front on Wednesday. Expect
sustained winds of 20-25 mph across the basin with gusts up to
30-35 mph by the late afternoon hours. /SVH

Thursday through Saturday night: A deep closed low will be moving
over the forecast area on Thursday. This low is anomalously deep
for this time of year. And the result will be much cooler
temperatures. In fact, some locations north and east of Spokane
won`t even reach 70F for a high. The clouds and showers should be
confined across the northern locations (north of Highway 2). We
could also see a few thunderstorms near the Canadian border. The
cold air aloft will cause the atmosphere to be unstable, but the
low moves east of our area during the afternoon, so the timing is
not optimal. The other aspect of Thursday will be the wind, 20-30
mph. Combined with the cooler temperatures, this will make for a
decidedly non-summerlike day.

The low moves out of the area Thursday night as high pressure
builds into the area. This will bring dry weather with a gradual
warming trend.  RJ

Sunday thru Tuesday... EC and GFS in good agreement on overall
pattern thru this period. Strong ridging over the region on Sunday
moves slightly east as a short wave moves onshore over the central
BC coast and the AK panhandle. Flow shifts to weak southwesterly
but models keep most of the precipitation and moisture well south
and east of the area. Above average temperatures on Sunday will
bump up a few degrees on Monday and Tuesday with little or no
chance of precipitation. JL

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A low pressure system circulating off of southeast BC
will continue to push moisture across the Inland Northwest with
showers and thunderstorms affecting all TAF sites. The strongest
thunderstorms are expected to develop over northeast OR and track
into southeast WA and into the central portions of the ID
panhandle. Gusty outflow winds and small hail will be possible
with these thunderstorms through the evening. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms will continue overnight but confidence
is low that they will affect any particular TAF site. -TSRA will
be more widespread Wednesday afternoon with thunderstorms capable
of producing heavy rain, small hail and gusty outflow winds. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        62  83  52  69  51  77 /  40  50  80  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  60  84  53  68  52  76 /  40  50  80  20  10   0
Pullman        62  84  49  68  46  76 /  50  40  70  10   0   0
Lewiston       65  90  58  77  57  85 /  50  40  60  10   0   0
Colville       58  81  51  71  51  78 /  20  60  80  40  10   0
Sandpoint      58  85  51  65  49  73 /  30  50  80  50  10   0
Kellogg        58  85  52  64  50  71 /  50  40  80  20  10   0
Moses Lake     66  83  56  77  57  85 /  30  50  40  10   0   0
Wenatchee      63  75  59  74  59  85 /  40  70  40  10   0   0
Omak           60  77  55  76  53  85 /  20  80  60  20  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for East Slopes Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley-
     Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 222154
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN OFFSHORE UPPER LOW WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES INLAND
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN
IN AREAS. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY WARMER WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A 5560 METER UPPER LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA NEAR 50N/131W AND DIGGING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE IN
THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW PRODUCED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH
PART OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES THIS MORNING BEFORE MOVING
NORTHEAST. HOWEVER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAVE PRODUCED
A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN WASHINGTON INTERIOR LOWLANDS IN
THE AFTERNOON...AND THE PARTIAL CLEARING WE WERE EXPECTING HAS NOT
MATERIALIZED.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...REACHING
THE WASHINGTON OFFSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. THEN IT WILL SWING
EASTWARD TOWARD WASHINGTON ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERY PRECIPITATION TO
THE FORECAST AREA -- ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT --
WITH MODELS IN BROAD AGREEMENT THAT MUCH OF THE WESTERN WASHINGTON
LOWLANDS WILL RECEIVE MORE THAN A HALF INCH RAIN...WITH UP TO 1 INCH
ALONG THE COAST...AND UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW
LEVEL WILL MAINLY BE 8000 TO 9000 FT.

THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. THE AIR MASS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE...WITH MODERATELY STRONG AND
WEAKLY DIFFLUENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE DIFFICULTY IS PINNING
DOWN THE TIMING AND AREA OF SPECIFIC THREAT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE OREGON CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON COULD SPREAD
NORTH TO OUR CASCADES AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING...AND THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A JET STREAK JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON COULD ALSO ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS ALBERTA ON THURSDAY. SOME
SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF
THE LOWLANDS SHOULD BE DRY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL START BUILDING NORTHWARD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
HIGH AGAIN ON FRIDAY...FOR DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WITH MORE
SUNSHINE.   MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WITH ITS AXIS
ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY...THE 500 MB
HEIGHTS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL BE AROUND 5850 METERS...AND
HIGHS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN WASHINGTON LOWLANDS SHOULD BE WELL
INTO THE 80S. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...AND THE NIGHT AND MORNING
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED MOSTLY TO THE COAST. THE GFS
STARTS TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AROUND TUESDAY...IMPLYING A MARINE PUSH
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF LOOKS AT LEAST A DAY LATER WITH THAT.
MCDONNAL

&&

.CLIMATE...UNUSUAL RAIN EVENT FOR LATE JULY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
THE RECORD RAINFALL FOR JULY 23RD AT SEATTLE IS 0.54 INCHES SET IN
1949. THE SECOND HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL FOR JULY 23RD IN SEATTLE
INCLUDING THE FEDERAL BUILDING RECORDS WHICH GO BACK TO 1891 IS 0.06
INCHES IN 1959...1952 AND 1912. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY
FOR THE DAILY PRECIPITATION RECORD IN SEATTLE...AS WELL AS OTHER
LOCATIONS IN WESTERN WASHINGTON...TO BE BROKEN. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. AIR MASS WILL BE STABLE OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWA WHICH MAY
SEE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY COVERING MUCH OF THE STATE WITH
MANY TERMINALS REPORTING BKN TO OVC. SOME AREAS ALONG THE COAST LOOK
TO QUALIFY MORE AS SCT TO BKN AS THERE APPEAR TO BE SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW HAVE BEEN
PRETTY SCATTERED...WITH CURRENT RADAR SHOWING ACTIVITY NORTH AND
EAST OF MOST TERMINAL SITES. STILL NOT EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING. CIGS UNDER RAINFALL
HAVE BEEN FALLING TO DOWN AROUND 3000 TO 4000 FT...OTHERWISE CIGS
NOT EXPECTED TO FALL OUT OF VFR UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING WITH MAIN
SHOWER THREAT.

KSEA...MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH
CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. CIGS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO MVFR LATE
TOMORROW MORNING ALONG WITH MAIN PRECIP THREAT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY 4 TO 8 KNOTS THIS EVENING
BEFORE RETURNING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SMR

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK 1015 MB SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS PATTERN
WILL CREATE LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASING MID DAY WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER
MOST OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY THEN EASING THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STRAIT LATE IN THE DAY. FELTON/SMR

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KPQR 222143
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
202 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER A CLOUDY AND WET START TO
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A MIX OF SUNSHINE AND SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
DRIER AND MORE SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES PUSH 90F LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING...A VORT MAX...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY...NEAR THE BAY AREA WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW BREAKS CREEPING INTO THE CASCADES. A
DESTABILIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
VORT MAX SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO FIRE
EAST OF THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES NEAR BEND. WITH ADDITIONAL
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SOME OF THIS CONVECTION TO BEGIN
DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CREST...BUT THERE STILL REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH...IF ANY...WILL DEVELOP. THE LATEST RAP
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE LANE AND LINN COUNTY CASCADES...BUT IF THE
CURRENT MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER TOO MUCH LONGER THIS
AFTERNOON...SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY STAY ENTIRELY EAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THE LATTER IDEA. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF ANY STORMS DO BREAK THE CAP ON OUR SIDE OF
THE CREST...40-45 KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-
750 J/KG WILL AID STORM ORGANIZATION. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS OF CONCERN IF STORMS WERE TO MATERIALIZE.
AGAIN...THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO EXPERIENCE SUCH STORMS IS PRIMARILY
NEAR THE CASCADE CREST...SOUTH OF MOUNT JEFFERSON.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 135W...DUE
WEST OF OREGON...WILL ELONGATE FURTHER TONIGHT...TURNING THE MID
LEVEL FLOW OVER NORTHWEST OREGON SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY. THE NAM
BRINGS A PIECE OF THE VORT MAX/PV ANOMALY NEAR 130W AND 35N ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WITH NEGATIVE THETAE LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
700-500MB ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...AND REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE/LEFT EXIT REGION OF TWO UPPER LEVEL JETS...WE MAY SEE
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN OREGON LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO THE
THUNDER MENTION WAS LIMITED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE. THE LATEST HRRR
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY RIGHT ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AND
POINTS EAST...BUT GIVEN THE PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ELONGATING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 135W WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. STRONG
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY ORGANIZED NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE OREGON COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOME MODEST MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE DYNAMICS
MAY LEAD TO A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE BAND OF RAIN SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID LEVEL FRONT MAY LEAD TO A RATHER
ABRUPT END TO THE RAIN/CLOUDS EARLY TO MID WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ANY CLEARING WILL NOT LAST LONG...AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD DESTABILIZE QUICKLY...AND A SPRING-LIKE PATTERN OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ENSUE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THE MENTION OF THUNDER WAS
INCREASED TO CHANCE WORDING.

WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERING JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON COAST WEDNESDAY THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR SURFACE WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO HAVE A
BIT MORE OF A S TO SSE COMPONENT THAN OTHERWISE EXPECTED. COMBINED
WITH WSW WINDS OF 25 KT AT 900MB AND 40KT AT 500MB...A RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING UPDRAFT COULD ROTATE BRIEFLY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW IN THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE CWA...BUT
IT WILL STILL BE WORTH MONITORING. THE MORE EXPECTED HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WERE ADDED TO THE THUNDER WORDING IN THE
GRIDS.

ON THE FIRE FRONT...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE WETTING RAINS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
LIKELY PUSHING AN INCH OF RAIN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED WETTING RAINS ARE LESS LIKELY TOWARDS
LANE COUNTY...BUT CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT A DRYING TREND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS
AMPLIFYING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD
MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND LOCATION.  -MCCOY


&&


.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES N
OF A K6S2-KKLS LINE. S OF THIS LINE IS ALSO VFR BUT WITH SCT-BKN
CLOUD DECK GENERALLY ABOVE 6000 FT. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE A FEW LOCAL
MVFR POCKETS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS...AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE LIFR MARINE STRATUS HAS SURGED N FROM K6S2 TO JUST N OF KONP.
EXPECT TRENDS TO PERSIST UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION STARTING
AROUND 10Z. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AFT 12Z...WITH MVFR CIGS AROUND
2000 FT POSSIBLE. LOCAL POCKETS OF IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
RAIN...AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOUNTAINS OBSCURED
TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 3000 FT AND AN OVERCAST DECK ABOVE 5000
FT. SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE...BUT EXPECT RAIN TO INCREASE AFT 12Z
WITH CIGS LOWERING TO LOW VFR TO HIGHER MVFR. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
THUNDER DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN APPROACHES THIS EVENING...OR OVER MUCH
OF THE OPS AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN TAF FOR NOW. CULLEN


&&


.MARINE...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...KEEPING WINDS 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT TODAY WITH
A CONTINUED SMALL W-NW SWELL.

A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BOTH S WINDS ALONG THE
COASTAL INNER WATERS AND ALSO OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS AS THE SURFACE
LOW PUSHES ACROSS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW AT THIS TIME
HOWEVER SO WILL LET NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE NEXT MODEL CYCLE BEFORE
POTENTIALLY RAISING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. LATER THIS WEEK...HIGH
PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC AS THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDS OVER N
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N WINDS AND STEEP WIND
DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CULLEN


&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.


&&


$$


MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 222143
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
202 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER A CLOUDY AND WET START TO
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A MIX OF SUNSHINE AND SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
DRIER AND MORE SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES PUSH 90F LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING...A VORT MAX...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY...NEAR THE BAY AREA WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW BREAKS CREEPING INTO THE CASCADES. A
DESTABILIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
VORT MAX SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO FIRE
EAST OF THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES NEAR BEND. WITH ADDITIONAL
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SOME OF THIS CONVECTION TO BEGIN
DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CREST...BUT THERE STILL REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH...IF ANY...WILL DEVELOP. THE LATEST RAP
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE LANE AND LINN COUNTY CASCADES...BUT IF THE
CURRENT MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER TOO MUCH LONGER THIS
AFTERNOON...SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY STAY ENTIRELY EAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THE LATTER IDEA. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF ANY STORMS DO BREAK THE CAP ON OUR SIDE OF
THE CREST...40-45 KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-
750 J/KG WILL AID STORM ORGANIZATION. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS OF CONCERN IF STORMS WERE TO MATERIALIZE.
AGAIN...THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO EXPERIENCE SUCH STORMS IS PRIMARILY
NEAR THE CASCADE CREST...SOUTH OF MOUNT JEFFERSON.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 135W...DUE
WEST OF OREGON...WILL ELONGATE FURTHER TONIGHT...TURNING THE MID
LEVEL FLOW OVER NORTHWEST OREGON SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY. THE NAM
BRINGS A PIECE OF THE VORT MAX/PV ANOMALY NEAR 130W AND 35N ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WITH NEGATIVE THETAE LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
700-500MB ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...AND REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE/LEFT EXIT REGION OF TWO UPPER LEVEL JETS...WE MAY SEE
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN OREGON LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO THE
THUNDER MENTION WAS LIMITED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE. THE LATEST HRRR
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY RIGHT ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AND
POINTS EAST...BUT GIVEN THE PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ELONGATING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 135W WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. STRONG
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY ORGANIZED NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE OREGON COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOME MODEST MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE DYNAMICS
MAY LEAD TO A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE BAND OF RAIN SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID LEVEL FRONT MAY LEAD TO A RATHER
ABRUPT END TO THE RAIN/CLOUDS EARLY TO MID WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ANY CLEARING WILL NOT LAST LONG...AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD DESTABILIZE QUICKLY...AND A SPRING-LIKE PATTERN OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ENSUE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THE MENTION OF THUNDER WAS
INCREASED TO CHANCE WORDING.

WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERING JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON COAST WEDNESDAY THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR SURFACE WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO HAVE A
BIT MORE OF A S TO SSE COMPONENT THAN OTHERWISE EXPECTED. COMBINED
WITH WSW WINDS OF 25 KT AT 900MB AND 40KT AT 500MB...A RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING UPDRAFT COULD ROTATE BRIEFLY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW IN THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE CWA...BUT
IT WILL STILL BE WORTH MONITORING. THE MORE EXPECTED HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WERE ADDED TO THE THUNDER WORDING IN THE
GRIDS.

ON THE FIRE FRONT...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE WETTING RAINS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
LIKELY PUSHING AN INCH OF RAIN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED WETTING RAINS ARE LESS LIKELY TOWARDS
LANE COUNTY...BUT CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT A DRYING TREND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS
AMPLIFYING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD
MOVE THROUGH AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND LOCATION.  -MCCOY


&&


.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES N
OF A K6S2-KKLS LINE. S OF THIS LINE IS ALSO VFR BUT WITH SCT-BKN
CLOUD DECK GENERALLY ABOVE 6000 FT. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE A FEW LOCAL
MVFR POCKETS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS...AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE LIFR MARINE STRATUS HAS SURGED N FROM K6S2 TO JUST N OF KONP.
EXPECT TRENDS TO PERSIST UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION STARTING
AROUND 10Z. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AFT 12Z...WITH MVFR CIGS AROUND
2000 FT POSSIBLE. LOCAL POCKETS OF IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
RAIN...AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOUNTAINS OBSCURED
TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 3000 FT AND AN OVERCAST DECK ABOVE 5000
FT. SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE...BUT EXPECT RAIN TO INCREASE AFT 12Z
WITH CIGS LOWERING TO LOW VFR TO HIGHER MVFR. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
THUNDER DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN APPROACHES THIS EVENING...OR OVER MUCH
OF THE OPS AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN TAF FOR NOW. CULLEN


&&


.MARINE...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...KEEPING WINDS 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT TODAY WITH
A CONTINUED SMALL W-NW SWELL.

A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BOTH S WINDS ALONG THE
COASTAL INNER WATERS AND ALSO OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS AS THE SURFACE
LOW PUSHES ACROSS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW AT THIS TIME
HOWEVER SO WILL LET NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE NEXT MODEL CYCLE BEFORE
POTENTIALLY RAISING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. LATER THIS WEEK...HIGH
PRES REDEVELOPS OVER NE PAC AS THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDS OVER N
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO GUSTY N WINDS AND STEEP WIND
DRIVEN SEAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CULLEN


&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.


&&


$$


MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 222137
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
236 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm system will move through the region tonight and
Wednesday bringing the potential for thunderstorms and heavy rain.
Cool and windy weather is expected for Thursday. Temperatures
will rebound by the weekend and be accompanied by dry conditions.
Hot weather will return to the area on Sunday and early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday night: A very active pattern is expected
over the Inland Northwest in the next 36 hours. Much of northeast
OR, into extreme southeast WA and into the Central Panhandle Mtns
has seen a good amount of sunshine through the first half of
today. This has destabilized the atmosphere with thunderstorms
popping up across much of northeast OR this afternoon. Further
north into southeast WA we still remain capped and less unstable.
I expect much of this thunderstorm activity will weaken as it
progresses northward through at least the early portions of the
afternoon. Mid level lapse rates will become more unstable through
the evening into tonight with Most Unstable CAPEs (or MUCAPEs) of
around 200-400 J/KG between the 700-300 mb layer. The best
instability closer to 400 J/KG in this layer will be across the
southeast portion of the forecast area this evening (generally
over the Palouse to the Central Panhandle Mtns and points
southward). We will also see some large scale forcing occurring
with a shortwave moving northward out of California into Oregon.
The southeast portion of the forecast area will also be in the
left exit region of a 100 kt jet streak. This forcing combined
with the increasing instability should result in some stronger
thunderstorms developing across the southeast portion of the
forecast area. Gusty outflow winds and small hail will be the
primary thunderstorm threat. I would not be surprised if some
thunderstorms approach severe levels.

The threat for thunderstorms will increase northward across the
region overnight. MUCAPEs away from the southeast portion of the
forecast area will not be as exciting closer to 200 J/KG in the
700-300 mb layer. This will be sufficient for the possibility of
isolated thunderstorms. The mid level front offshore associated
with the upper level low pressure system will begin to approach
the Cascades Wednesday morning. A band of moderate to heavy
rainfall is expected to form out ahead of the front. There will
also be the possibility for some thunderstorms embedded in this
ran band that may produce more intense rainfall rates.
Thunderstorms will continue to be possible over the Cascades
through the afternoon into the evening as the cold pool aloft
shifts over this area of the region. Rapid runoff from the heavy
rain is expected. Debris or mud flows will also be possible with
the highest concern for recent burn scared areas. A Flash Flood
Watch has been issued to cover this threat and is in effect for
Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.

Severe weather will also be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening,
mainly across the eastern half of the forecast area. The upper
level low will push across the Cascades just after peak heating.
Very strong upper level dynamics will accompany this wave.
Instability is a little bit of a question mark as there will be a
substantial amount of cloud cover along the mid level front. The
best possibility for sun breaks and instability will be in the
Panhandle where the best severe threat will be. Main threats will
be for outflow winds and hail. P-wats will also be up around an
inch, so these thunderstorms will be very wet. The good news is
that storm motion will be quick will move at approximately 25-30
mph to the northeast.

Winds will become gusty behind the cold front on Wednesday. Expect
sustained winds of 20-25 mph across the basin with gusts up to
30-35 mph by the late afternoon hours. /SVH

Thursday through Saturday night: A deep closed low will be moving
over the forecast area on Thursday. This low is anomalously deep
for this time of year. And the result will be much cooler
temperatures. In fact, some locations north and east of Spokane
won`t even reach 70F for a high. The clouds and showers should be
confined across the northern locations (north of Highway 2). We
could also see a few thunderstorms near the Canadian border. The
cold air aloft will cause the atmosphere to be unstable, but the
low moves east of our area during the afternoon, so the timing is
not optimal. The other aspect of Thursday will be the wind, 20-30
mph. Combined with the cooler temperatures, this will make for a
decidedly non-summerlike day.

The low moves out of the area Thursday night as high pressure
builds into the area. This will bring dry weather with a gradual
warming trend.  RJ

Sunday thru Tuesday... EC and GFS in good agreement on overall
pattern thru this period. Strong ridging over the region on Sunday
moves slightly east as a short wave moves onshore over the central
BC coast and the AK panhandle. Flow shifts to weak southwesterly
but models keep most of the precipitation and moisture well south
and east of the area. Above average temperatures on Sunday will
bump up a few degrees on Monday and Tuesday with little or no
chance of precipitation. JL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A low pressure system circulating off of southeast BC
will continue to push moisture across the Inland Northwest. Much
of the showers through the early afternoon will be north of the
TAF sites. However, the atmosphere will destabilize late this
afternoon with a redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms
into tonight. The strongest thunderstorms are expected to develop
over northeast OR and track into southeast WA and into the central
portions of the ID panhandle. Gusty outflow winds and small hail
will be possible with these thunderstorms through the evening.
/SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        62  83  52  69  51  77 /  40  50  80  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  60  84  53  68  52  76 /  40  50  80  20  10   0
Pullman        62  84  49  68  46  76 /  50  40  70  10   0   0
Lewiston       65  90  58  77  57  85 /  50  40  60  10   0   0
Colville       58  81  51  71  51  78 /  20  60  80  40  10   0
Sandpoint      58  85  51  65  49  73 /  30  50  80  50  10   0
Kellogg        58  85  52  64  50  71 /  50  40  80  20  10   0
Moses Lake     66  83  56  77  57  85 /  30  50  40  10   0   0
Wenatchee      63  75  59  74  59  85 /  40  70  40  10   0   0
Omak           60  77  55  76  53  85 /  20  80  60  20  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for East Slopes Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley-
     Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 222137
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
236 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm system will move through the region tonight and
Wednesday bringing the potential for thunderstorms and heavy rain.
Cool and windy weather is expected for Thursday. Temperatures
will rebound by the weekend and be accompanied by dry conditions.
Hot weather will return to the area on Sunday and early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday night: A very active pattern is expected
over the Inland Northwest in the next 36 hours. Much of northeast
OR, into extreme southeast WA and into the Central Panhandle Mtns
has seen a good amount of sunshine through the first half of
today. This has destabilized the atmosphere with thunderstorms
popping up across much of northeast OR this afternoon. Further
north into southeast WA we still remain capped and less unstable.
I expect much of this thunderstorm activity will weaken as it
progresses northward through at least the early portions of the
afternoon. Mid level lapse rates will become more unstable through
the evening into tonight with Most Unstable CAPEs (or MUCAPEs) of
around 200-400 J/KG between the 700-300 mb layer. The best
instability closer to 400 J/KG in this layer will be across the
southeast portion of the forecast area this evening (generally
over the Palouse to the Central Panhandle Mtns and points
southward). We will also see some large scale forcing occurring
with a shortwave moving northward out of California into Oregon.
The southeast portion of the forecast area will also be in the
left exit region of a 100 kt jet streak. This forcing combined
with the increasing instability should result in some stronger
thunderstorms developing across the southeast portion of the
forecast area. Gusty outflow winds and small hail will be the
primary thunderstorm threat. I would not be surprised if some
thunderstorms approach severe levels.

The threat for thunderstorms will increase northward across the
region overnight. MUCAPEs away from the southeast portion of the
forecast area will not be as exciting closer to 200 J/KG in the
700-300 mb layer. This will be sufficient for the possibility of
isolated thunderstorms. The mid level front offshore associated
with the upper level low pressure system will begin to approach
the Cascades Wednesday morning. A band of moderate to heavy
rainfall is expected to form out ahead of the front. There will
also be the possibility for some thunderstorms embedded in this
ran band that may produce more intense rainfall rates.
Thunderstorms will continue to be possible over the Cascades
through the afternoon into the evening as the cold pool aloft
shifts over this area of the region. Rapid runoff from the heavy
rain is expected. Debris or mud flows will also be possible with
the highest concern for recent burn scared areas. A Flash Flood
Watch has been issued to cover this threat and is in effect for
Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.

Severe weather will also be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening,
mainly across the eastern half of the forecast area. The upper
level low will push across the Cascades just after peak heating.
Very strong upper level dynamics will accompany this wave.
Instability is a little bit of a question mark as there will be a
substantial amount of cloud cover along the mid level front. The
best possibility for sun breaks and instability will be in the
Panhandle where the best severe threat will be. Main threats will
be for outflow winds and hail. P-wats will also be up around an
inch, so these thunderstorms will be very wet. The good news is
that storm motion will be quick will move at approximately 25-30
mph to the northeast.

Winds will become gusty behind the cold front on Wednesday. Expect
sustained winds of 20-25 mph across the basin with gusts up to
30-35 mph by the late afternoon hours. /SVH

Thursday through Saturday night: A deep closed low will be moving
over the forecast area on Thursday. This low is anomalously deep
for this time of year. And the result will be much cooler
temperatures. In fact, some locations north and east of Spokane
won`t even reach 70F for a high. The clouds and showers should be
confined across the northern locations (north of Highway 2). We
could also see a few thunderstorms near the Canadian border. The
cold air aloft will cause the atmosphere to be unstable, but the
low moves east of our area during the afternoon, so the timing is
not optimal. The other aspect of Thursday will be the wind, 20-30
mph. Combined with the cooler temperatures, this will make for a
decidedly non-summerlike day.

The low moves out of the area Thursday night as high pressure
builds into the area. This will bring dry weather with a gradual
warming trend.  RJ

Sunday thru Tuesday... EC and GFS in good agreement on overall
pattern thru this period. Strong ridging over the region on Sunday
moves slightly east as a short wave moves onshore over the central
BC coast and the AK panhandle. Flow shifts to weak southwesterly
but models keep most of the precipitation and moisture well south
and east of the area. Above average temperatures on Sunday will
bump up a few degrees on Monday and Tuesday with little or no
chance of precipitation. JL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A low pressure system circulating off of southeast BC
will continue to push moisture across the Inland Northwest. Much
of the showers through the early afternoon will be north of the
TAF sites. However, the atmosphere will destabilize late this
afternoon with a redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms
into tonight. The strongest thunderstorms are expected to develop
over northeast OR and track into southeast WA and into the central
portions of the ID panhandle. Gusty outflow winds and small hail
will be possible with these thunderstorms through the evening.
/SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        62  83  52  69  51  77 /  40  50  80  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  60  84  53  68  52  76 /  40  50  80  20  10   0
Pullman        62  84  49  68  46  76 /  50  40  70  10   0   0
Lewiston       65  90  58  77  57  85 /  50  40  60  10   0   0
Colville       58  81  51  71  51  78 /  20  60  80  40  10   0
Sandpoint      58  85  51  65  49  73 /  30  50  80  50  10   0
Kellogg        58  85  52  64  50  71 /  50  40  80  20  10   0
Moses Lake     66  83  56  77  57  85 /  30  50  40  10   0   0
Wenatchee      63  75  59  74  59  85 /  40  70  40  10   0   0
Omak           60  77  55  76  53  85 /  20  80  60  20  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for East Slopes Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley-
     Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 222137
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
236 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm system will move through the region tonight and
Wednesday bringing the potential for thunderstorms and heavy rain.
Cool and windy weather is expected for Thursday. Temperatures
will rebound by the weekend and be accompanied by dry conditions.
Hot weather will return to the area on Sunday and early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday night: A very active pattern is expected
over the Inland Northwest in the next 36 hours. Much of northeast
OR, into extreme southeast WA and into the Central Panhandle Mtns
has seen a good amount of sunshine through the first half of
today. This has destabilized the atmosphere with thunderstorms
popping up across much of northeast OR this afternoon. Further
north into southeast WA we still remain capped and less unstable.
I expect much of this thunderstorm activity will weaken as it
progresses northward through at least the early portions of the
afternoon. Mid level lapse rates will become more unstable through
the evening into tonight with Most Unstable CAPEs (or MUCAPEs) of
around 200-400 J/KG between the 700-300 mb layer. The best
instability closer to 400 J/KG in this layer will be across the
southeast portion of the forecast area this evening (generally
over the Palouse to the Central Panhandle Mtns and points
southward). We will also see some large scale forcing occurring
with a shortwave moving northward out of California into Oregon.
The southeast portion of the forecast area will also be in the
left exit region of a 100 kt jet streak. This forcing combined
with the increasing instability should result in some stronger
thunderstorms developing across the southeast portion of the
forecast area. Gusty outflow winds and small hail will be the
primary thunderstorm threat. I would not be surprised if some
thunderstorms approach severe levels.

The threat for thunderstorms will increase northward across the
region overnight. MUCAPEs away from the southeast portion of the
forecast area will not be as exciting closer to 200 J/KG in the
700-300 mb layer. This will be sufficient for the possibility of
isolated thunderstorms. The mid level front offshore associated
with the upper level low pressure system will begin to approach
the Cascades Wednesday morning. A band of moderate to heavy
rainfall is expected to form out ahead of the front. There will
also be the possibility for some thunderstorms embedded in this
ran band that may produce more intense rainfall rates.
Thunderstorms will continue to be possible over the Cascades
through the afternoon into the evening as the cold pool aloft
shifts over this area of the region. Rapid runoff from the heavy
rain is expected. Debris or mud flows will also be possible with
the highest concern for recent burn scared areas. A Flash Flood
Watch has been issued to cover this threat and is in effect for
Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.

Severe weather will also be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening,
mainly across the eastern half of the forecast area. The upper
level low will push across the Cascades just after peak heating.
Very strong upper level dynamics will accompany this wave.
Instability is a little bit of a question mark as there will be a
substantial amount of cloud cover along the mid level front. The
best possibility for sun breaks and instability will be in the
Panhandle where the best severe threat will be. Main threats will
be for outflow winds and hail. P-wats will also be up around an
inch, so these thunderstorms will be very wet. The good news is
that storm motion will be quick will move at approximately 25-30
mph to the northeast.

Winds will become gusty behind the cold front on Wednesday. Expect
sustained winds of 20-25 mph across the basin with gusts up to
30-35 mph by the late afternoon hours. /SVH

Thursday through Saturday night: A deep closed low will be moving
over the forecast area on Thursday. This low is anomalously deep
for this time of year. And the result will be much cooler
temperatures. In fact, some locations north and east of Spokane
won`t even reach 70F for a high. The clouds and showers should be
confined across the northern locations (north of Highway 2). We
could also see a few thunderstorms near the Canadian border. The
cold air aloft will cause the atmosphere to be unstable, but the
low moves east of our area during the afternoon, so the timing is
not optimal. The other aspect of Thursday will be the wind, 20-30
mph. Combined with the cooler temperatures, this will make for a
decidedly non-summerlike day.

The low moves out of the area Thursday night as high pressure
builds into the area. This will bring dry weather with a gradual
warming trend.  RJ

Sunday thru Tuesday... EC and GFS in good agreement on overall
pattern thru this period. Strong ridging over the region on Sunday
moves slightly east as a short wave moves onshore over the central
BC coast and the AK panhandle. Flow shifts to weak southwesterly
but models keep most of the precipitation and moisture well south
and east of the area. Above average temperatures on Sunday will
bump up a few degrees on Monday and Tuesday with little or no
chance of precipitation. JL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A low pressure system circulating off of southeast BC
will continue to push moisture across the Inland Northwest. Much
of the showers through the early afternoon will be north of the
TAF sites. However, the atmosphere will destabilize late this
afternoon with a redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms
into tonight. The strongest thunderstorms are expected to develop
over northeast OR and track into southeast WA and into the central
portions of the ID panhandle. Gusty outflow winds and small hail
will be possible with these thunderstorms through the evening.
/SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        62  83  52  69  51  77 /  40  50  80  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  60  84  53  68  52  76 /  40  50  80  20  10   0
Pullman        62  84  49  68  46  76 /  50  40  70  10   0   0
Lewiston       65  90  58  77  57  85 /  50  40  60  10   0   0
Colville       58  81  51  71  51  78 /  20  60  80  40  10   0
Sandpoint      58  85  51  65  49  73 /  30  50  80  50  10   0
Kellogg        58  85  52  64  50  71 /  50  40  80  20  10   0
Moses Lake     66  83  56  77  57  85 /  30  50  40  10   0   0
Wenatchee      63  75  59  74  59  85 /  40  70  40  10   0   0
Omak           60  77  55  76  53  85 /  20  80  60  20  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for East Slopes Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley-
     Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 222137
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
236 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm system will move through the region tonight and
Wednesday bringing the potential for thunderstorms and heavy rain.
Cool and windy weather is expected for Thursday. Temperatures
will rebound by the weekend and be accompanied by dry conditions.
Hot weather will return to the area on Sunday and early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday night: A very active pattern is expected
over the Inland Northwest in the next 36 hours. Much of northeast
OR, into extreme southeast WA and into the Central Panhandle Mtns
has seen a good amount of sunshine through the first half of
today. This has destabilized the atmosphere with thunderstorms
popping up across much of northeast OR this afternoon. Further
north into southeast WA we still remain capped and less unstable.
I expect much of this thunderstorm activity will weaken as it
progresses northward through at least the early portions of the
afternoon. Mid level lapse rates will become more unstable through
the evening into tonight with Most Unstable CAPEs (or MUCAPEs) of
around 200-400 J/KG between the 700-300 mb layer. The best
instability closer to 400 J/KG in this layer will be across the
southeast portion of the forecast area this evening (generally
over the Palouse to the Central Panhandle Mtns and points
southward). We will also see some large scale forcing occurring
with a shortwave moving northward out of California into Oregon.
The southeast portion of the forecast area will also be in the
left exit region of a 100 kt jet streak. This forcing combined
with the increasing instability should result in some stronger
thunderstorms developing across the southeast portion of the
forecast area. Gusty outflow winds and small hail will be the
primary thunderstorm threat. I would not be surprised if some
thunderstorms approach severe levels.

The threat for thunderstorms will increase northward across the
region overnight. MUCAPEs away from the southeast portion of the
forecast area will not be as exciting closer to 200 J/KG in the
700-300 mb layer. This will be sufficient for the possibility of
isolated thunderstorms. The mid level front offshore associated
with the upper level low pressure system will begin to approach
the Cascades Wednesday morning. A band of moderate to heavy
rainfall is expected to form out ahead of the front. There will
also be the possibility for some thunderstorms embedded in this
ran band that may produce more intense rainfall rates.
Thunderstorms will continue to be possible over the Cascades
through the afternoon into the evening as the cold pool aloft
shifts over this area of the region. Rapid runoff from the heavy
rain is expected. Debris or mud flows will also be possible with
the highest concern for recent burn scared areas. A Flash Flood
Watch has been issued to cover this threat and is in effect for
Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.

Severe weather will also be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening,
mainly across the eastern half of the forecast area. The upper
level low will push across the Cascades just after peak heating.
Very strong upper level dynamics will accompany this wave.
Instability is a little bit of a question mark as there will be a
substantial amount of cloud cover along the mid level front. The
best possibility for sun breaks and instability will be in the
Panhandle where the best severe threat will be. Main threats will
be for outflow winds and hail. P-wats will also be up around an
inch, so these thunderstorms will be very wet. The good news is
that storm motion will be quick will move at approximately 25-30
mph to the northeast.

Winds will become gusty behind the cold front on Wednesday. Expect
sustained winds of 20-25 mph across the basin with gusts up to
30-35 mph by the late afternoon hours. /SVH

Thursday through Saturday night: A deep closed low will be moving
over the forecast area on Thursday. This low is anomalously deep
for this time of year. And the result will be much cooler
temperatures. In fact, some locations north and east of Spokane
won`t even reach 70F for a high. The clouds and showers should be
confined across the northern locations (north of Highway 2). We
could also see a few thunderstorms near the Canadian border. The
cold air aloft will cause the atmosphere to be unstable, but the
low moves east of our area during the afternoon, so the timing is
not optimal. The other aspect of Thursday will be the wind, 20-30
mph. Combined with the cooler temperatures, this will make for a
decidedly non-summerlike day.

The low moves out of the area Thursday night as high pressure
builds into the area. This will bring dry weather with a gradual
warming trend.  RJ

Sunday thru Tuesday... EC and GFS in good agreement on overall
pattern thru this period. Strong ridging over the region on Sunday
moves slightly east as a short wave moves onshore over the central
BC coast and the AK panhandle. Flow shifts to weak southwesterly
but models keep most of the precipitation and moisture well south
and east of the area. Above average temperatures on Sunday will
bump up a few degrees on Monday and Tuesday with little or no
chance of precipitation. JL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A low pressure system circulating off of southeast BC
will continue to push moisture across the Inland Northwest. Much
of the showers through the early afternoon will be north of the
TAF sites. However, the atmosphere will destabilize late this
afternoon with a redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms
into tonight. The strongest thunderstorms are expected to develop
over northeast OR and track into southeast WA and into the central
portions of the ID panhandle. Gusty outflow winds and small hail
will be possible with these thunderstorms through the evening.
/SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        62  83  52  69  51  77 /  40  50  80  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  60  84  53  68  52  76 /  40  50  80  20  10   0
Pullman        62  84  49  68  46  76 /  50  40  70  10   0   0
Lewiston       65  90  58  77  57  85 /  50  40  60  10   0   0
Colville       58  81  51  71  51  78 /  20  60  80  40  10   0
Sandpoint      58  85  51  65  49  73 /  30  50  80  50  10   0
Kellogg        58  85  52  64  50  71 /  50  40  80  20  10   0
Moses Lake     66  83  56  77  57  85 /  30  50  40  10   0   0
Wenatchee      63  75  59  74  59  85 /  40  70  40  10   0   0
Omak           60  77  55  76  53  85 /  20  80  60  20  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for East Slopes Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley-
     Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 221801
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1101 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm system will approach the region today and pass
through on Wednesday. The threat for thunderstorms will increase
across the southeast today then spread region-wide tonight and on
Wednesday. Some storms could be strong and wet bringing the
potential for strong winds, hail, and heavy rainfall. Temperatures
will rebound by the weekend and be accompanied by dry conditions.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Main changes to forecast through this afternoon was to increase
precip chances and QPF in the ID Panhandle and in the Cascades. A
batch of showers is moving through the region this morning. Much
of the steadier rainfall has occurred over the ID Panhandle into
extreme portions of eastern WA. We are also seeing some showers
developing across the Cascade Mtns. These showers have generally
been light across these areas with less than 0.05 inches so far.
Showers are expected to continue in the Cascade Mtns and across
the northern mtns of WA and ID through at least the early afternoon
hours. We will then see a little bit of a break around mid
afternoon with mainly some isolated to scattered shower activity
possible.

A slight chance of thunderstorms is possible during the afternoon
for the eastern half of the forecast area; however, the best
chances for thunderstorms will be this evening into tonight as a
wave currently MOVING into California this morning moves up
through the Inland Northwest. Convection is expected to blossom
over OR this afternoon and then begin to track into WA this
evening. Best chances for thunderstorms will be across southeast
WA into the Central Idaho Panhandle. Some of these thunderstorms
may become strong this EVENING with gusty outflow winds and small
hail possible. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A low pressure system circulating off of southeast BC
will continue to push moisture across the Inland Northwest. Much
of the showers through the early afternoon will be north of the
TAF sites. However, the atmosphere will destabilize late this
afternoon with a redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms
into tonight. The strongest thunderstorms are expected to develop
over northeast OR and track into southeast WA and into the central
portions of the ID panhandle. Gusty outflow winds and small hail
will be possible with these thunderstorms through the evening.
/SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        78  60  83  52  72  53 /  30  40  50  70  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  78  58  84  53  71  51 /  30  40  40  80  40  10
Pullman        79  60  84  49  71  47 /  30  40  40  70  10  10
Lewiston       87  63  90  58  80  56 /  30  40  40  60  10   0
Colville       78  56  81  51  74  49 /  40  30  60  80  50  10
Sandpoint      74  56  85  51  68  46 /  30  40  50  80  50  20
Kellogg        78  56  85  52  67  51 /  50  40  40  80  40  10
Moses Lake     83  65  83  56  80  56 /  20  30  50  40  10   0
Wenatchee      79  62  75  59  77  59 /  40  30  70  40  10   0
Omak           83  58  77  55  79  53 /  50  20  80  60  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 221801
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1101 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm system will approach the region today and pass
through on Wednesday. The threat for thunderstorms will increase
across the southeast today then spread region-wide tonight and on
Wednesday. Some storms could be strong and wet bringing the
potential for strong winds, hail, and heavy rainfall. Temperatures
will rebound by the weekend and be accompanied by dry conditions.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Main changes to forecast through this afternoon was to increase
precip chances and QPF in the ID Panhandle and in the Cascades. A
batch of showers is moving through the region this morning. Much
of the steadier rainfall has occurred over the ID Panhandle into
extreme portions of eastern WA. We are also seeing some showers
developing across the Cascade Mtns. These showers have generally
been light across these areas with less than 0.05 inches so far.
Showers are expected to continue in the Cascade Mtns and across
the northern mtns of WA and ID through at least the early afternoon
hours. We will then see a little bit of a break around mid
afternoon with mainly some isolated to scattered shower activity
possible.

A slight chance of thunderstorms is possible during the afternoon
for the eastern half of the forecast area; however, the best
chances for thunderstorms will be this evening into tonight as a
wave currently MOVING into California this morning moves up
through the Inland Northwest. Convection is expected to blossom
over OR this afternoon and then begin to track into WA this
evening. Best chances for thunderstorms will be across southeast
WA into the Central Idaho Panhandle. Some of these thunderstorms
may become strong this EVENING with gusty outflow winds and small
hail possible. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A low pressure system circulating off of southeast BC
will continue to push moisture across the Inland Northwest. Much
of the showers through the early afternoon will be north of the
TAF sites. However, the atmosphere will destabilize late this
afternoon with a redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms
into tonight. The strongest thunderstorms are expected to develop
over northeast OR and track into southeast WA and into the central
portions of the ID panhandle. Gusty outflow winds and small hail
will be possible with these thunderstorms through the evening.
/SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        78  60  83  52  72  53 /  30  40  50  70  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  78  58  84  53  71  51 /  30  40  40  80  40  10
Pullman        79  60  84  49  71  47 /  30  40  40  70  10  10
Lewiston       87  63  90  58  80  56 /  30  40  40  60  10   0
Colville       78  56  81  51  74  49 /  40  30  60  80  50  10
Sandpoint      74  56  85  51  68  46 /  30  40  50  80  50  20
Kellogg        78  56  85  52  67  51 /  50  40  40  80  40  10
Moses Lake     83  65  83  56  80  56 /  20  30  50  40  10   0
Wenatchee      79  62  75  59  77  59 /  40  30  70  40  10   0
Omak           83  58  77  55  79  53 /  50  20  80  60  50  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...&&

$$





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