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000
FXUS66 KOTX 311134
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
434 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be partly cloudy and hot with isolated thunderstorms
through the end of the week and into the weekend. No significant
relief from the hot weather is forecast through the seven-day
forecast period. However, only a few spots may reach the 100-degree
mark. Isolated thunderstorms the next several days are not
expected to be strong or severe but could bring localized heavy
downpours.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...Hot temperatures will continue across the
region with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible across the
southeast zones today. The ridge axis will shift slightly to the
east today, but not enough to account for more than a degree or
two of cooling. Monsoonal moisture will try to push into the NE
Blue Mts, Camas Prairie and the central panhandle mountains today.
This will work with a weak impulse to allow isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop across the southeast. There
is a decent amount of CAPE but bulk shear is rather weak so any
thunderstorms that develop will tend to be garden variety. There
is a better push of moisture Friday that will extend into the
north Cascades as well as the southeast. CAPE will be limited to a
couple hundred J/kg for the Cascades so there is a slight risk of
thunderstorms to develop near active fires or recent burn scars.
Scattered thunderstorms will again develop across the southeast
zones. Temperatures will continue the above normal trend with
readings in the 95 to 105 degree range. The highest temperatures
will be in the Lewis-Clark Valley today where a Heat Advisory has
been issued. Fridays temps should be a bit cooler but just by a
couple of degrees with most valley locations in the 90s. Overnight
lows will also be well above normal. The warmest readings will be
in the mid-slope thermal belt at the top of the inversion where
readings could top out in the 70s. /Kelch

Friday Night through Thursday...The Inland Northwest will be in
between and exiting ridge of high pressure and a deep low in the
Gulf of Alaska through Sunday. A weak upper level front will track
across the region Saturday night and Sunday. Zonal flow with weak
ridge will return Monday through the remainder of the forecast
period.

Southwest flow is expected Friday night through Saturday night or
early Sunday. The models are not necessarily in agreement but all
are showing and influx of Pacific moisture through this portion of
the forecast. Model PWATs increase to 140-160 percent of normal.
Several weak waves will track through the region, with the upper
level front between 00z-12z Sunday. Model guidance is showing an
extended period of both surface based and mid level instability
through Sunday night. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon through Sunday. The
best chance for nocturnal thunderstorms appears to be Friday night
and Saturday night. These storms may begin dry Friday night but
should become mainly wet storms Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures
will show a bit of a cooling trend with lower heights and some
cloud cover but will remain above normal.

Monday through the week the flow becomes westerly with a hint of a
ridge of high pressure at 5H Monday and Tuesday. The region will
lose the deep Pacific moisture tap, allowing the atmosphere to
stabilize. A few showers may be possible Monday afternoon across
the orographically favored Panhandle mountains, otherwise dry
through Thursday. Temperatures will rebound a few degrees Monday
and Tuesday under the ridge but cool off close to normal for
Wednesday and Thursday. /Tobin


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Cumulus will
develop over the mountains in the afternoon with cirrus moving in
from the south through the late afternoon and evening hours.
Isolated thunderstorm development is possible from the Blue mtns
to Lookout Pass this afternoon/evening. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        96  66  94  66  92  66 /   0   0  10  10  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  94  60  94  62  91  63 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Pullman        94  58  93  57  92  59 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Lewiston      101  70  99  69  97  71 /  10  10  30  30  20  20
Colville       99  56  95  59  95  58 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Sandpoint      94  52  93  56  88  56 /   0  10  20  20  20  20
Kellogg        92  57  90  62  88  62 /  10  10  20  20  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  98  64  97  65 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      99  70  96  71  96  71 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Omak          101  64 100  68  96  67 /   0   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening
     for Lewiston Area.

WA...     Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening
     for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 311134
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
434 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be partly cloudy and hot with isolated thunderstorms
through the end of the week and into the weekend. No significant
relief from the hot weather is forecast through the seven-day
forecast period. However, only a few spots may reach the 100-degree
mark. Isolated thunderstorms the next several days are not
expected to be strong or severe but could bring localized heavy
downpours.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...Hot temperatures will continue across the
region with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible across the
southeast zones today. The ridge axis will shift slightly to the
east today, but not enough to account for more than a degree or
two of cooling. Monsoonal moisture will try to push into the NE
Blue Mts, Camas Prairie and the central panhandle mountains today.
This will work with a weak impulse to allow isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop across the southeast. There
is a decent amount of CAPE but bulk shear is rather weak so any
thunderstorms that develop will tend to be garden variety. There
is a better push of moisture Friday that will extend into the
north Cascades as well as the southeast. CAPE will be limited to a
couple hundred J/kg for the Cascades so there is a slight risk of
thunderstorms to develop near active fires or recent burn scars.
Scattered thunderstorms will again develop across the southeast
zones. Temperatures will continue the above normal trend with
readings in the 95 to 105 degree range. The highest temperatures
will be in the Lewis-Clark Valley today where a Heat Advisory has
been issued. Fridays temps should be a bit cooler but just by a
couple of degrees with most valley locations in the 90s. Overnight
lows will also be well above normal. The warmest readings will be
in the mid-slope thermal belt at the top of the inversion where
readings could top out in the 70s. /Kelch

Friday Night through Thursday...The Inland Northwest will be in
between and exiting ridge of high pressure and a deep low in the
Gulf of Alaska through Sunday. A weak upper level front will track
across the region Saturday night and Sunday. Zonal flow with weak
ridge will return Monday through the remainder of the forecast
period.

Southwest flow is expected Friday night through Saturday night or
early Sunday. The models are not necessarily in agreement but all
are showing and influx of Pacific moisture through this portion of
the forecast. Model PWATs increase to 140-160 percent of normal.
Several weak waves will track through the region, with the upper
level front between 00z-12z Sunday. Model guidance is showing an
extended period of both surface based and mid level instability
through Sunday night. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon through Sunday. The
best chance for nocturnal thunderstorms appears to be Friday night
and Saturday night. These storms may begin dry Friday night but
should become mainly wet storms Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures
will show a bit of a cooling trend with lower heights and some
cloud cover but will remain above normal.

Monday through the week the flow becomes westerly with a hint of a
ridge of high pressure at 5H Monday and Tuesday. The region will
lose the deep Pacific moisture tap, allowing the atmosphere to
stabilize. A few showers may be possible Monday afternoon across
the orographically favored Panhandle mountains, otherwise dry
through Thursday. Temperatures will rebound a few degrees Monday
and Tuesday under the ridge but cool off close to normal for
Wednesday and Thursday. /Tobin


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Cumulus will
develop over the mountains in the afternoon with cirrus moving in
from the south through the late afternoon and evening hours.
Isolated thunderstorm development is possible from the Blue mtns
to Lookout Pass this afternoon/evening. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        96  66  94  66  92  66 /   0   0  10  10  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  94  60  94  62  91  63 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Pullman        94  58  93  57  92  59 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Lewiston      101  70  99  69  97  71 /  10  10  30  30  20  20
Colville       99  56  95  59  95  58 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Sandpoint      94  52  93  56  88  56 /   0  10  20  20  20  20
Kellogg        92  57  90  62  88  62 /  10  10  20  20  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  98  64  97  65 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      99  70  96  71  96  71 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Omak          101  64 100  68  96  67 /   0   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening
     for Lewiston Area.

WA...     Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening
     for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 311134
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
434 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be partly cloudy and hot with isolated thunderstorms
through the end of the week and into the weekend. No significant
relief from the hot weather is forecast through the seven-day
forecast period. However, only a few spots may reach the 100-degree
mark. Isolated thunderstorms the next several days are not
expected to be strong or severe but could bring localized heavy
downpours.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...Hot temperatures will continue across the
region with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible across the
southeast zones today. The ridge axis will shift slightly to the
east today, but not enough to account for more than a degree or
two of cooling. Monsoonal moisture will try to push into the NE
Blue Mts, Camas Prairie and the central panhandle mountains today.
This will work with a weak impulse to allow isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop across the southeast. There
is a decent amount of CAPE but bulk shear is rather weak so any
thunderstorms that develop will tend to be garden variety. There
is a better push of moisture Friday that will extend into the
north Cascades as well as the southeast. CAPE will be limited to a
couple hundred J/kg for the Cascades so there is a slight risk of
thunderstorms to develop near active fires or recent burn scars.
Scattered thunderstorms will again develop across the southeast
zones. Temperatures will continue the above normal trend with
readings in the 95 to 105 degree range. The highest temperatures
will be in the Lewis-Clark Valley today where a Heat Advisory has
been issued. Fridays temps should be a bit cooler but just by a
couple of degrees with most valley locations in the 90s. Overnight
lows will also be well above normal. The warmest readings will be
in the mid-slope thermal belt at the top of the inversion where
readings could top out in the 70s. /Kelch

Friday Night through Thursday...The Inland Northwest will be in
between and exiting ridge of high pressure and a deep low in the
Gulf of Alaska through Sunday. A weak upper level front will track
across the region Saturday night and Sunday. Zonal flow with weak
ridge will return Monday through the remainder of the forecast
period.

Southwest flow is expected Friday night through Saturday night or
early Sunday. The models are not necessarily in agreement but all
are showing and influx of Pacific moisture through this portion of
the forecast. Model PWATs increase to 140-160 percent of normal.
Several weak waves will track through the region, with the upper
level front between 00z-12z Sunday. Model guidance is showing an
extended period of both surface based and mid level instability
through Sunday night. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon through Sunday. The
best chance for nocturnal thunderstorms appears to be Friday night
and Saturday night. These storms may begin dry Friday night but
should become mainly wet storms Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures
will show a bit of a cooling trend with lower heights and some
cloud cover but will remain above normal.

Monday through the week the flow becomes westerly with a hint of a
ridge of high pressure at 5H Monday and Tuesday. The region will
lose the deep Pacific moisture tap, allowing the atmosphere to
stabilize. A few showers may be possible Monday afternoon across
the orographically favored Panhandle mountains, otherwise dry
through Thursday. Temperatures will rebound a few degrees Monday
and Tuesday under the ridge but cool off close to normal for
Wednesday and Thursday. /Tobin


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Cumulus will
develop over the mountains in the afternoon with cirrus moving in
from the south through the late afternoon and evening hours.
Isolated thunderstorm development is possible from the Blue mtns
to Lookout Pass this afternoon/evening. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        96  66  94  66  92  66 /   0   0  10  10  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  94  60  94  62  91  63 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Pullman        94  58  93  57  92  59 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Lewiston      101  70  99  69  97  71 /  10  10  30  30  20  20
Colville       99  56  95  59  95  58 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Sandpoint      94  52  93  56  88  56 /   0  10  20  20  20  20
Kellogg        92  57  90  62  88  62 /  10  10  20  20  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  98  64  97  65 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      99  70  96  71  96  71 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Omak          101  64 100  68  96  67 /   0   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening
     for Lewiston Area.

WA...     Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening
     for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 311134
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
434 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be partly cloudy and hot with isolated thunderstorms
through the end of the week and into the weekend. No significant
relief from the hot weather is forecast through the seven-day
forecast period. However, only a few spots may reach the 100-degree
mark. Isolated thunderstorms the next several days are not
expected to be strong or severe but could bring localized heavy
downpours.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...Hot temperatures will continue across the
region with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible across the
southeast zones today. The ridge axis will shift slightly to the
east today, but not enough to account for more than a degree or
two of cooling. Monsoonal moisture will try to push into the NE
Blue Mts, Camas Prairie and the central panhandle mountains today.
This will work with a weak impulse to allow isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop across the southeast. There
is a decent amount of CAPE but bulk shear is rather weak so any
thunderstorms that develop will tend to be garden variety. There
is a better push of moisture Friday that will extend into the
north Cascades as well as the southeast. CAPE will be limited to a
couple hundred J/kg for the Cascades so there is a slight risk of
thunderstorms to develop near active fires or recent burn scars.
Scattered thunderstorms will again develop across the southeast
zones. Temperatures will continue the above normal trend with
readings in the 95 to 105 degree range. The highest temperatures
will be in the Lewis-Clark Valley today where a Heat Advisory has
been issued. Fridays temps should be a bit cooler but just by a
couple of degrees with most valley locations in the 90s. Overnight
lows will also be well above normal. The warmest readings will be
in the mid-slope thermal belt at the top of the inversion where
readings could top out in the 70s. /Kelch

Friday Night through Thursday...The Inland Northwest will be in
between and exiting ridge of high pressure and a deep low in the
Gulf of Alaska through Sunday. A weak upper level front will track
across the region Saturday night and Sunday. Zonal flow with weak
ridge will return Monday through the remainder of the forecast
period.

Southwest flow is expected Friday night through Saturday night or
early Sunday. The models are not necessarily in agreement but all
are showing and influx of Pacific moisture through this portion of
the forecast. Model PWATs increase to 140-160 percent of normal.
Several weak waves will track through the region, with the upper
level front between 00z-12z Sunday. Model guidance is showing an
extended period of both surface based and mid level instability
through Sunday night. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon through Sunday. The
best chance for nocturnal thunderstorms appears to be Friday night
and Saturday night. These storms may begin dry Friday night but
should become mainly wet storms Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures
will show a bit of a cooling trend with lower heights and some
cloud cover but will remain above normal.

Monday through the week the flow becomes westerly with a hint of a
ridge of high pressure at 5H Monday and Tuesday. The region will
lose the deep Pacific moisture tap, allowing the atmosphere to
stabilize. A few showers may be possible Monday afternoon across
the orographically favored Panhandle mountains, otherwise dry
through Thursday. Temperatures will rebound a few degrees Monday
and Tuesday under the ridge but cool off close to normal for
Wednesday and Thursday. /Tobin


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Cumulus will
develop over the mountains in the afternoon with cirrus moving in
from the south through the late afternoon and evening hours.
Isolated thunderstorm development is possible from the Blue mtns
to Lookout Pass this afternoon/evening. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        96  66  94  66  92  66 /   0   0  10  10  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  94  60  94  62  91  63 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Pullman        94  58  93  57  92  59 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Lewiston      101  70  99  69  97  71 /  10  10  30  30  20  20
Colville       99  56  95  59  95  58 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Sandpoint      94  52  93  56  88  56 /   0  10  20  20  20  20
Kellogg        92  57  90  62  88  62 /  10  10  20  20  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  98  64  97  65 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      99  70  96  71  96  71 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Omak          101  64 100  68  96  67 /   0   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening
     for Lewiston Area.

WA...     Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening
     for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 310958
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
258 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN
REMAINS OUR MOST DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INLAND. THIS RIDGE WILL VERY SLOWLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING MORE
ONSHORE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
THE MEANTIME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO GUIDE
WEAK DISTURBANCES INTO OUR AREA FOR OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE CASCADES. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE SHOULD PROMOTE ANOTHER DAY OF
ENHANCED CASCADE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER
POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE PATTERN OF THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
B.C. COAST WILL CONTINUE FOR SOME TIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE CASCADES AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH. THIS WILL ALSO
KEEP TEMPERATURES INLAND ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MARINE CLOUDS THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE COAST THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS CLEARED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND ONLY EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG OR
LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST IN THE NORTHERLY UPWELLING FLOW. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IF ANY INLAND EITHER TODAY. AS A RESULT...TEMPS TODAY
WILL BE A BIT WARMER ALONG THE COAST...AND INLAND SHOULD BE ABOUT THE
SAME AS ON WEDNESDAY OR EVEN UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY AS EVIDENT ESPECIALLY ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE TRIGGER FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY.
THE UPPER FLOW TENDS TO STAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...ALLOWING THIS
FEATURE TO INTERACT WITH MOISTURE BEING PULLED UP FROM THE SOUTH.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL BE
OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN SUCH AS THE OREGON CASCADES AND POSSIBLY
THE OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS...WHILE FARTHER WEST LOOKS MORE STABLE
WITH AN INVERSION. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE BRUSHING THE CENTRAL
OREGON CASCADES THIS MORNING SO CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM THERE
EARLY BUT THE GFS MODEL LOOKS TOO BULLISH TAKING THIS TOO FAR
NORTHWARD THIS MORNING BASED ON THE CURRENT UPPER WIND FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAKES SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...AND WILL KEEP THE CONVECTION GOING QUITE A WHILE
TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALSO HELP SPREAD THE CONVECTION FARTHER
NORTH TOWARD THE COLUMBIA RIVER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE MODELS ALSO
SUGGEST THE MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD FILL IN ALONG THE COAST BETTER
TONIGHT AS THIS UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES IN...HOWEVER INLAND
PENETRATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL STILL BE LIMITED
FRIDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY REACHING KELSO ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER.

THE UPPER SHORT WAVE IS STILL OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY... AND
EXPECT MORE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY OVER THE CASCADES...POSSIBLY
REACHING THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE MODELS ALL SUGGEST THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY EAST OF THE VALLEYS.

THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE ON SATURDAY...AS THE SHORT WAVE EITHER
LINGERS OVER THE AREA OR A PIECE OF TRAILING ENERGY MOVES IN AND
SLOWS ITS PROGRESS. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...WITH SOME LEFT OVER NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY. THE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO BE MORE
SOLID AT THE COAST...AND EXPECT A BIT BETTER PENETRATION INLAND
ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER SATURDAY MORNING...THAT MAY SHAVE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES OFF ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH VALLEY AREAS. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL GRADUALLY
ERODE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY ALLOW A GREATER WESTERLY AND
ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...PERHAPS COOLING INLAND AREAS BY A FEW
DEGREES AND DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL. AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES A BIT
STRONGER...EXPECT THE THUNDER RISK TO DECREASE ON OUR SIDE OF THE
CASCADES. ALSO THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN A LITTLE...PUSHING A
BIT FURTHER INLAND AS THE THERMAL LOW OVER THE MID-COLUMBIA BECOMES
MORE DOMINANT AND INCREASES THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT/FLOW. NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENTS ON THE HORIZON GOING WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUE TO KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW PATCHES OF LOCAL IFR MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST FROM KTMK SOUTH AFTER 11Z...BUT WIDESPREAD STRATUS
NOT EXPECTED TO FORM. ANY THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD CLEAR BY
16Z...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...VFR PREVAILING ACROSS
THE INTERIOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH PRESSURE AND NW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS. CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...ONLY SUBTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER NE PACIFIC.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF N WINDS...
GENERALLY INCREASING EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. AS A
RESULT...ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR THE INNER WATERS AND OUTER WATERS S OF CASCADE
HEAD...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT LIKELY. EXPECT THE CONDITIONS TODAY TO BE
LARGELY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THAT SAID...WHILE OBS FROM BUOY 46050
WERE RUNNING A BIT BELOW CRITERIA YESTERDAY EVENING...AN ASCAT PASS
INDICATED THAT WINDS MAY HAVE BEEN CLOSER TO 20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LOCALLY GENERATED WIND
WAVES DOMINATING THE SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND....LEADING TO STEEP
CONDITIONS BUT WITH TOTAL WAVE HEIGHTS AT OR BELOW 6 FT. CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 310958
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
258 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN
REMAINS OUR MOST DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INLAND. THIS RIDGE WILL VERY SLOWLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING MORE
ONSHORE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
THE MEANTIME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO GUIDE
WEAK DISTURBANCES INTO OUR AREA FOR OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE CASCADES. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE SHOULD PROMOTE ANOTHER DAY OF
ENHANCED CASCADE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER
POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE PATTERN OF THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
B.C. COAST WILL CONTINUE FOR SOME TIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE CASCADES AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH. THIS WILL ALSO
KEEP TEMPERATURES INLAND ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MARINE CLOUDS THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE COAST THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS CLEARED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND ONLY EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG OR
LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST IN THE NORTHERLY UPWELLING FLOW. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IF ANY INLAND EITHER TODAY. AS A RESULT...TEMPS TODAY
WILL BE A BIT WARMER ALONG THE COAST...AND INLAND SHOULD BE ABOUT THE
SAME AS ON WEDNESDAY OR EVEN UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY AS EVIDENT ESPECIALLY ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE TRIGGER FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY.
THE UPPER FLOW TENDS TO STAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...ALLOWING THIS
FEATURE TO INTERACT WITH MOISTURE BEING PULLED UP FROM THE SOUTH.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL BE
OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN SUCH AS THE OREGON CASCADES AND POSSIBLY
THE OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS...WHILE FARTHER WEST LOOKS MORE STABLE
WITH AN INVERSION. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE BRUSHING THE CENTRAL
OREGON CASCADES THIS MORNING SO CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM THERE
EARLY BUT THE GFS MODEL LOOKS TOO BULLISH TAKING THIS TOO FAR
NORTHWARD THIS MORNING BASED ON THE CURRENT UPPER WIND FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAKES SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...AND WILL KEEP THE CONVECTION GOING QUITE A WHILE
TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALSO HELP SPREAD THE CONVECTION FARTHER
NORTH TOWARD THE COLUMBIA RIVER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE MODELS ALSO
SUGGEST THE MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD FILL IN ALONG THE COAST BETTER
TONIGHT AS THIS UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES IN...HOWEVER INLAND
PENETRATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL STILL BE LIMITED
FRIDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY REACHING KELSO ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER.

THE UPPER SHORT WAVE IS STILL OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY... AND
EXPECT MORE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY OVER THE CASCADES...POSSIBLY
REACHING THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE MODELS ALL SUGGEST THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY EAST OF THE VALLEYS.

THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE ON SATURDAY...AS THE SHORT WAVE EITHER
LINGERS OVER THE AREA OR A PIECE OF TRAILING ENERGY MOVES IN AND
SLOWS ITS PROGRESS. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...WITH SOME LEFT OVER NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY. THE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO BE MORE
SOLID AT THE COAST...AND EXPECT A BIT BETTER PENETRATION INLAND
ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER SATURDAY MORNING...THAT MAY SHAVE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES OFF ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH VALLEY AREAS. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL GRADUALLY
ERODE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY ALLOW A GREATER WESTERLY AND
ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...PERHAPS COOLING INLAND AREAS BY A FEW
DEGREES AND DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL. AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES A BIT
STRONGER...EXPECT THE THUNDER RISK TO DECREASE ON OUR SIDE OF THE
CASCADES. ALSO THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN A LITTLE...PUSHING A
BIT FURTHER INLAND AS THE THERMAL LOW OVER THE MID-COLUMBIA BECOMES
MORE DOMINANT AND INCREASES THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT/FLOW. NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENTS ON THE HORIZON GOING WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUE TO KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW PATCHES OF LOCAL IFR MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST FROM KTMK SOUTH AFTER 11Z...BUT WIDESPREAD STRATUS
NOT EXPECTED TO FORM. ANY THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD CLEAR BY
16Z...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...VFR PREVAILING ACROSS
THE INTERIOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH PRESSURE AND NW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS. CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...ONLY SUBTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER NE PACIFIC.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF N WINDS...
GENERALLY INCREASING EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. AS A
RESULT...ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR THE INNER WATERS AND OUTER WATERS S OF CASCADE
HEAD...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT LIKELY. EXPECT THE CONDITIONS TODAY TO BE
LARGELY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THAT SAID...WHILE OBS FROM BUOY 46050
WERE RUNNING A BIT BELOW CRITERIA YESTERDAY EVENING...AN ASCAT PASS
INDICATED THAT WINDS MAY HAVE BEEN CLOSER TO 20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LOCALLY GENERATED WIND
WAVES DOMINATING THE SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND....LEADING TO STEEP
CONDITIONS BUT WITH TOTAL WAVE HEIGHTS AT OR BELOW 6 FT. CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&


  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSEW 310950
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
250 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING
LOW CLOUDS FROM TONIGHT ONWARD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. WEAK
INSTABILITY ALOFT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A LARGE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
ROCKIES WHICH PUTS W WA UNDER WEAK SW FLOW ALOFT. THE TWO FORECAST
PROBLEMS THIS MORNING ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND THE STRENGTH AND DIRECTION OF LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WHICH IMPACTS STRATUS COVERAGE AND DAILY TEMPERATURES.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE STRONGEST TODAY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
AROUND 5880 METERS. STRATUS CLEARED FROM THE COASTAL WATERS
YESTERDAY AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW HAS BEEN WEAKER AND MORE
NORTHWESTERLY THAN 24 HOURS AGO. IN PARTICULAR THE ONSHORE FLOW UP
THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY HAS BEEN NON-EXISTENT OVERNIGHT. FOG
PRODUCT IMAGERY AT 09Z/2 AM SHOWS NO STRATUS ANYWHERE. WITH THE
STRONG RIDGE OVERHEAD AND NO COOLING FROM THE ONSHORE FLOW MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE HIGHER TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW INTERIOR.

THE NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH INDICATES STRATUS FILLING IN ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT THEN SPREADING PARTWAY INLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT
PROBABLY ONLY REACHING THE SW PART OF PUGET SOUND FRIDAY MORNING.
THE NEXT ONSHORE FLOW CYCLE FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY SHOULD BRING
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TO MOST OF THE INTERIOR BY SATURDAY MORNING.

ALL THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST W OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OREGON COAST THIS MORNING. MODELS ALL AGREE ON
BRINGING THE WEAK SHORTWAVE NORTHWARD OFF THE WA COAST ON FRIDAY AND
THEN OVER NW WA/SW B.C. ON SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE THE
INSTABILITY OVER W WA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND SHIFT THE MID LEVEL
FLOW AROUND 700 MB TO SOUTHERLY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION OVER THE OREGON CASCADES TODAY AND FRIDAY
TO ADVECT UP OVER W WA. THE GFS DROPS LIFTED INDICES DOWN TO AROUND
-2 BOTH AFTERNOONS WHILE THE NAM IS MORE UNSTABLE AT AROUND -5. BOTH
MODELS ALSO SHOW A POCKET OF INSTABILITY OVER THE E OLYMPICS. THE
FORECAST WAS ALREADY IN GOOD SHAPE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SO
NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

MAX TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY...BACK TO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THIS IS  DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF GENERAL AIR MASS
COOLING FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND TO THE RETURN OF STRATUS
IN THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER. KAM

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME AS SATURDAY OVER THE
LOWLANDS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW MORNING STRATUS TO FORM OVER MOST
INLAND AREAS...FOLLOWED BY A MIDDAY BURN-OFF. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S INLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SHIFT OVER E WA/SE B.C. WITH WESTERLY 700 MB FLOW DEVELOPING
OVER W WA. THIS SHOULD END THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER I WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF CASCADE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A LITTLE LONGER JUST
IN CASE.

A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NW ON
MONDAY...THEN BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE THE REMNANT OF A WEAK FRONT
REACHING W WA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS LIKE A
DRY FEATURE SO THE MAIN EFFECT WILL PROBABLY BE CONTINUING WEAK TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 5860 METERS SO
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 70S AND 80S. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE WRN U.S. WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER WA. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS HIGH PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE WITH THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES.
PATCHY MORNING FOG COAST AND STRAIT OTHERWISE CLEAR. THE AIR WILL BE
UNSTABLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST OVER
THE MTNS FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KSEA...CLEAR WITH AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING NLY BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...THE PATTERN HASN`T CHANGED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AND THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES. THERE IS NOT MUCH MARINE FOG OR LOW CLOUDS BUT THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE MORE OF THAT BY FRIDAY MORNING AS A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER
DEVELOPS. RACE ROCKS WILL FLIRT WITH WESTERLY GALES EACH EVENING...I
THINK THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING UP AROUND 35KT FRIDAY
EVENING THAN THERE IS TONIGHT. ALONG THE COAST...DESTRUCTION ISLAND
GETS UP AROUND 25KTS EACH EVENING...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THERE
BLENDS PRETTY WELL WITH THE PORTLAND MARINE FORECAST.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL
AND EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY JAMES
ISLAND TO CAPE SHOALWATER AND OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KSEW 310950
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
250 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING
LOW CLOUDS FROM TONIGHT ONWARD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. WEAK
INSTABILITY ALOFT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A LARGE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
ROCKIES WHICH PUTS W WA UNDER WEAK SW FLOW ALOFT. THE TWO FORECAST
PROBLEMS THIS MORNING ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND THE STRENGTH AND DIRECTION OF LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
WHICH IMPACTS STRATUS COVERAGE AND DAILY TEMPERATURES.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE STRONGEST TODAY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
AROUND 5880 METERS. STRATUS CLEARED FROM THE COASTAL WATERS
YESTERDAY AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW HAS BEEN WEAKER AND MORE
NORTHWESTERLY THAN 24 HOURS AGO. IN PARTICULAR THE ONSHORE FLOW UP
THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY HAS BEEN NON-EXISTENT OVERNIGHT. FOG
PRODUCT IMAGERY AT 09Z/2 AM SHOWS NO STRATUS ANYWHERE. WITH THE
STRONG RIDGE OVERHEAD AND NO COOLING FROM THE ONSHORE FLOW MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE HIGHER TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW INTERIOR.

THE NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH INDICATES STRATUS FILLING IN ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT THEN SPREADING PARTWAY INLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT
PROBABLY ONLY REACHING THE SW PART OF PUGET SOUND FRIDAY MORNING.
THE NEXT ONSHORE FLOW CYCLE FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY SHOULD BRING
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TO MOST OF THE INTERIOR BY SATURDAY MORNING.

ALL THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST W OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OREGON COAST THIS MORNING. MODELS ALL AGREE ON
BRINGING THE WEAK SHORTWAVE NORTHWARD OFF THE WA COAST ON FRIDAY AND
THEN OVER NW WA/SW B.C. ON SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE THE
INSTABILITY OVER W WA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND SHIFT THE MID LEVEL
FLOW AROUND 700 MB TO SOUTHERLY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION OVER THE OREGON CASCADES TODAY AND FRIDAY
TO ADVECT UP OVER W WA. THE GFS DROPS LIFTED INDICES DOWN TO AROUND
-2 BOTH AFTERNOONS WHILE THE NAM IS MORE UNSTABLE AT AROUND -5. BOTH
MODELS ALSO SHOW A POCKET OF INSTABILITY OVER THE E OLYMPICS. THE
FORECAST WAS ALREADY IN GOOD SHAPE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SO
NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

MAX TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY...BACK TO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THIS IS  DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF GENERAL AIR MASS
COOLING FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND TO THE RETURN OF STRATUS
IN THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER. KAM

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME AS SATURDAY OVER THE
LOWLANDS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW MORNING STRATUS TO FORM OVER MOST
INLAND AREAS...FOLLOWED BY A MIDDAY BURN-OFF. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S INLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SHIFT OVER E WA/SE B.C. WITH WESTERLY 700 MB FLOW DEVELOPING
OVER W WA. THIS SHOULD END THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER I WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF CASCADE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A LITTLE LONGER JUST
IN CASE.

A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NW ON
MONDAY...THEN BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE THE REMNANT OF A WEAK FRONT
REACHING W WA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS LIKE A
DRY FEATURE SO THE MAIN EFFECT WILL PROBABLY BE CONTINUING WEAK TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 5860 METERS SO
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 70S AND 80S. KAM

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE WRN U.S. WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER WA. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS HIGH PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE WITH THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES.
PATCHY MORNING FOG COAST AND STRAIT OTHERWISE CLEAR. THE AIR WILL BE
UNSTABLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST OVER
THE MTNS FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KSEA...CLEAR WITH AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING NLY BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...THE PATTERN HASN`T CHANGED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AND THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES. THERE IS NOT MUCH MARINE FOG OR LOW CLOUDS BUT THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE MORE OF THAT BY FRIDAY MORNING AS A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER
DEVELOPS. RACE ROCKS WILL FLIRT WITH WESTERLY GALES EACH EVENING...I
THINK THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING UP AROUND 35KT FRIDAY
EVENING THAN THERE IS TONIGHT. ALONG THE COAST...DESTRUCTION ISLAND
GETS UP AROUND 25KTS EACH EVENING...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THERE
BLENDS PRETTY WELL WITH THE PORTLAND MARINE FORECAST.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL
AND EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY JAMES
ISLAND TO CAPE SHOALWATER AND OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KOTX 310922
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
221 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be partly cloudy and hot with isolated thunderstorms
through the end of the week and into the weekend. No significant
relief from the hot weather is forecast through the seven-day
forecast period. However, only a few spots may reach the 100-degree
mark. Isolated thunderstorms the next several days are not
expected to be strong or severe but could bring localized heavy
downpours.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...Hot temperatures will continue across the
region with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible across the
southeast zones today. The ridge axis will shift slightly to the
east today, but not enough to account for more than a degree or
two of cooling. Monsoonal moisture will try to push into the NE
Blue Mts, Camas Prairie and the central panhandle mountains today.
This will work with a weak impulse to allow isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop across the southeast. There
is a decent amount of CAPE but bulk shear is rather weak so any
thunderstorms that develop will tend to be garden variety. There
is a better push of moisture Friday that will extend into the
north Cascades as well as the southeast. CAPE will be limited to a
couple hundred J/kg for the Cascades so there is a slight risk of
thunderstorms to develop near active fires or recent burn scars.
Scattered thunderstorms will again develop across the southeast
zones. Temperatures will continue the above normal trend with
readings in the 95 to 105 degree range. The highest temperatures
will be in the Lewis-Clark Valley today where a Heat Advisory has
been issued. Fridays temps should be a bit cooler but just by a
couple of degrees with most valley locations in the 90s. Overnight
lows will also be well above normal. The warmest readings will be
in the mid-slope thermal belt at the top of the inversion where
readings could top out in the 70s. /Kelch

Friday Night through Thursday...The Inland Northwest will be in
between and exiting ridge of high pressure and a deep low in the
Gulf of Alaska through Sunday. A weak upper level front will track
across the region Saturday night and Sunday. Zonal flow with weak
ridge will return Monday through the remainder of the forecast
period.

Southwest flow is expected Friday night through Saturday night or
early Sunday. The models are not necessarily in agreement but all
are showing and influx of Pacific moisture through this portion of
the forecast. Model PWATs increase to 140-160 percent of normal.
Several weak waves will track through the region, with the upper
level front between 00z-12z Sunday. Model guidance is showing an
extended period of both surface based and mid level instability
through Sunday night. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon through Sunday. The
best chance for nocturnal thunderstorms appears to be Friday night
and Saturday night. These storms may begin dry Friday night but
should become mainly wet storms Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures
will show a bit of a cooling trend with lower heights and some
cloud cover but will remain above normal.

Monday through the week the flow becomes westerly with a hint of a
ridge of high pressure at 5H Monday and Tuesday. The region will
lose the deep Pacific moisture tap, allowing the atmosphere to
stabilize. A few showers may be possible Monday afternoon across
the orographically favored Panhandle mountains, otherwise dry
through Thursday. Temperatures will rebound a few degrees Monday
and Tuesday under the ridge but cool off close to normal for
Wednesday and Thursday. /Tobin


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Cu will
develop over the mtns in the aftn with cirrus moving in from the
south through the late afternoon and evening hours. Isolated
thunderstorm development is possible from the Blue mtns to Lookout
Pass thurs afternoon/evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        96  66  94  66  92  66 /   0   0  10  10  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  94  60  94  62  91  63 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Pullman        94  58  93  57  92  59 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Lewiston      101  70  99  69  97  71 /  10  10  30  30  20  20
Colville       99  56  95  59  95  58 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Sandpoint      94  52  93  56  88  56 /   0  10  20  20  20  20
Kellogg        92  57  90  62  88  62 /  10  10  20  20  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  98  64  97  65 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      99  70  96  71  96  71 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Omak          101  64 100  68  96  67 /   0   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening
     for Lewiston Area.

WA...     Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening
     for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 310922
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
221 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be partly cloudy and hot with isolated thunderstorms
through the end of the week and into the weekend. No significant
relief from the hot weather is forecast through the seven-day
forecast period. However, only a few spots may reach the 100-degree
mark. Isolated thunderstorms the next several days are not
expected to be strong or severe but could bring localized heavy
downpours.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...Hot temperatures will continue across the
region with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible across the
southeast zones today. The ridge axis will shift slightly to the
east today, but not enough to account for more than a degree or
two of cooling. Monsoonal moisture will try to push into the NE
Blue Mts, Camas Prairie and the central panhandle mountains today.
This will work with a weak impulse to allow isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop across the southeast. There
is a decent amount of CAPE but bulk shear is rather weak so any
thunderstorms that develop will tend to be garden variety. There
is a better push of moisture Friday that will extend into the
north Cascades as well as the southeast. CAPE will be limited to a
couple hundred J/kg for the Cascades so there is a slight risk of
thunderstorms to develop near active fires or recent burn scars.
Scattered thunderstorms will again develop across the southeast
zones. Temperatures will continue the above normal trend with
readings in the 95 to 105 degree range. The highest temperatures
will be in the Lewis-Clark Valley today where a Heat Advisory has
been issued. Fridays temps should be a bit cooler but just by a
couple of degrees with most valley locations in the 90s. Overnight
lows will also be well above normal. The warmest readings will be
in the mid-slope thermal belt at the top of the inversion where
readings could top out in the 70s. /Kelch

Friday Night through Thursday...The Inland Northwest will be in
between and exiting ridge of high pressure and a deep low in the
Gulf of Alaska through Sunday. A weak upper level front will track
across the region Saturday night and Sunday. Zonal flow with weak
ridge will return Monday through the remainder of the forecast
period.

Southwest flow is expected Friday night through Saturday night or
early Sunday. The models are not necessarily in agreement but all
are showing and influx of Pacific moisture through this portion of
the forecast. Model PWATs increase to 140-160 percent of normal.
Several weak waves will track through the region, with the upper
level front between 00z-12z Sunday. Model guidance is showing an
extended period of both surface based and mid level instability
through Sunday night. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon through Sunday. The
best chance for nocturnal thunderstorms appears to be Friday night
and Saturday night. These storms may begin dry Friday night but
should become mainly wet storms Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures
will show a bit of a cooling trend with lower heights and some
cloud cover but will remain above normal.

Monday through the week the flow becomes westerly with a hint of a
ridge of high pressure at 5H Monday and Tuesday. The region will
lose the deep Pacific moisture tap, allowing the atmosphere to
stabilize. A few showers may be possible Monday afternoon across
the orographically favored Panhandle mountains, otherwise dry
through Thursday. Temperatures will rebound a few degrees Monday
and Tuesday under the ridge but cool off close to normal for
Wednesday and Thursday. /Tobin


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Cu will
develop over the mtns in the aftn with cirrus moving in from the
south through the late afternoon and evening hours. Isolated
thunderstorm development is possible from the Blue mtns to Lookout
Pass thurs afternoon/evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        96  66  94  66  92  66 /   0   0  10  10  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  94  60  94  62  91  63 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Pullman        94  58  93  57  92  59 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Lewiston      101  70  99  69  97  71 /  10  10  30  30  20  20
Colville       99  56  95  59  95  58 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Sandpoint      94  52  93  56  88  56 /   0  10  20  20  20  20
Kellogg        92  57  90  62  88  62 /  10  10  20  20  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  98  64  97  65 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      99  70  96  71  96  71 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Omak          101  64 100  68  96  67 /   0   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening
     for Lewiston Area.

WA...     Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening
     for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 310536
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1036 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be partly cloudy and hot with isolated thunderstorms
through the end of the week and into the weekend. No significant
relief from the hot weather is forecast through the seven-day
forecast period. However, only a few spots may reach the 100-degree
mark. Isolated thunderstorms the next several days are not
expected to be strong or severe but could bring localized heavy
downpours.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Tonight through Saturday night. The forecast area
will be located on the backside of an upper level ridge through
Saturday and will be influenced by a weak sw flow aloft. A few
disturbances in the flow may increase moisture and lift to a
presently unstable air mass...resulting in isolated thunderstorms.
Due to a weak mid-level shear and marginal instability...most
storms will be garden variety and diurnally driven. The main
concern will be the slow storm movement bringing heavy downpours.
Today there have been a few showers sitting near the northeast
mountains with storm movement less than 10 mph. Forecasters will
need to keep a close eye on storms that may develop near burn
scars in steep terrain. Thunderstorms will mainly be confined to
central and northern Idaho, but a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms was added to all zones on Saturday. All models hint
at a shortwave off the coast edging inland that will steepen lapse
rates across eastern Washington on Saturday. Increasing clouds
will keep temperatures from climbing significantly during the
afternoon Thurs-Sat, but the heat advisory for the Lewiston area
will be extended through Thursday evening as this area will have
overnight lows around 70 and afternoon temperatures in the 100-105
degree range.

Sunday through Wednesday...No major changes are expected in the
weather pattern during the remainder of the period. The Pacific NW
will be influenced by a broad upper level ridge and an inverted
surface thermal trough. Afternoon temperatures will remain in the
mid 80s to mid 90s. A slight chance of thunderstorms is forecast
for the afternoon and evening on Sunday and Monday...as weak
impulses pass through the region. Of course, any threat of
thunderstorms brings fire weather concerns but there does not
appear to be any organized waves to increase shear and enhance
lift for significant lightning strikes. moisture is limited as
well. Monsoonal moisture advection will primarily be directed
east of the Rockies. I`ve kept thunderstorms out of the forecast
for most of the area Tuesday and Wednesday as the flow is more
westerly. Models are in general agreement so confidence in the
continued hot temperatures is high...but there is uncertainty in
the thunderstorm forecast...particularly where thunderstorms will
be located Sunday and Monday. Wister

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Cu will
develop over the mtns in the aftn with cirrus moving in from the
south through the late afternoon and evening hours. Isolated
thunderstorm development is possible from the Blue mtns to Lookout
Pass thurs afternoon/evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  96  66  93  65  92 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Coeur d`Alene  62  94  59  92  62  90 /   0   0  10  10  20  20
Pullman        56  95  61  91  57  91 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Lewiston       70 102  69  97  68  97 /   0  10  10  30  30  20
Colville       57 101  57  95  59  95 /   0   0  10  10  10  20
Sandpoint      54  92  52  89  56  87 /   0   0  10  10  20  20
Kellogg        61  93  57  90  62  87 /   0  10  10  20  20  30
Moses Lake     64 100  65  97  64  97 /   0   0  10  10  10  20
Wenatchee      71 100  67  96  71  97 /   0   0  10  10  10  20
Omak           65 100  63  98  68  97 /   0   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM PDT Thursday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM PDT Thursday for Lower
Garfield and Asotin Counties.

&&





000
FXUS66 KOTX 310536
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1036 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be partly cloudy and hot with isolated thunderstorms
through the end of the week and into the weekend. No significant
relief from the hot weather is forecast through the seven-day
forecast period. However, only a few spots may reach the 100-degree
mark. Isolated thunderstorms the next several days are not
expected to be strong or severe but could bring localized heavy
downpours.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Tonight through Saturday night. The forecast area
will be located on the backside of an upper level ridge through
Saturday and will be influenced by a weak sw flow aloft. A few
disturbances in the flow may increase moisture and lift to a
presently unstable air mass...resulting in isolated thunderstorms.
Due to a weak mid-level shear and marginal instability...most
storms will be garden variety and diurnally driven. The main
concern will be the slow storm movement bringing heavy downpours.
Today there have been a few showers sitting near the northeast
mountains with storm movement less than 10 mph. Forecasters will
need to keep a close eye on storms that may develop near burn
scars in steep terrain. Thunderstorms will mainly be confined to
central and northern Idaho, but a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms was added to all zones on Saturday. All models hint
at a shortwave off the coast edging inland that will steepen lapse
rates across eastern Washington on Saturday. Increasing clouds
will keep temperatures from climbing significantly during the
afternoon Thurs-Sat, but the heat advisory for the Lewiston area
will be extended through Thursday evening as this area will have
overnight lows around 70 and afternoon temperatures in the 100-105
degree range.

Sunday through Wednesday...No major changes are expected in the
weather pattern during the remainder of the period. The Pacific NW
will be influenced by a broad upper level ridge and an inverted
surface thermal trough. Afternoon temperatures will remain in the
mid 80s to mid 90s. A slight chance of thunderstorms is forecast
for the afternoon and evening on Sunday and Monday...as weak
impulses pass through the region. Of course, any threat of
thunderstorms brings fire weather concerns but there does not
appear to be any organized waves to increase shear and enhance
lift for significant lightning strikes. moisture is limited as
well. Monsoonal moisture advection will primarily be directed
east of the Rockies. I`ve kept thunderstorms out of the forecast
for most of the area Tuesday and Wednesday as the flow is more
westerly. Models are in general agreement so confidence in the
continued hot temperatures is high...but there is uncertainty in
the thunderstorm forecast...particularly where thunderstorms will
be located Sunday and Monday. Wister

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Cu will
develop over the mtns in the aftn with cirrus moving in from the
south through the late afternoon and evening hours. Isolated
thunderstorm development is possible from the Blue mtns to Lookout
Pass thurs afternoon/evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  96  66  93  65  92 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Coeur d`Alene  62  94  59  92  62  90 /   0   0  10  10  20  20
Pullman        56  95  61  91  57  91 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Lewiston       70 102  69  97  68  97 /   0  10  10  30  30  20
Colville       57 101  57  95  59  95 /   0   0  10  10  10  20
Sandpoint      54  92  52  89  56  87 /   0   0  10  10  20  20
Kellogg        61  93  57  90  62  87 /   0  10  10  20  20  30
Moses Lake     64 100  65  97  64  97 /   0   0  10  10  10  20
Wenatchee      71 100  67  96  71  97 /   0   0  10  10  10  20
Omak           65 100  63  98  68  97 /   0   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM PDT Thursday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM PDT Thursday for Lower
Garfield and Asotin Counties.

&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 310417
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
917 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN
REMAINS OUR MOST DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INLAND. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY ERODE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING MORE ONSHORE FLOW AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO GUIDE WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTO OUR AREA FOR OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE CASCADES.
ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE SHOULD PROMOTE ANOTHER DAY OF ENHANCED CASCADE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...A FAIRLY REPETITIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES OCCURRED THIS EVENING
WITH AREAS SOUTH OF OREGON HIGHWAY 58 BEARING THE BRUNT ONCE AGAIN.
ONE CELL IN PARTICULAR MOVED OFF THE CREST WITH RADAR INDICATED HAIL
EXCEEDING AN INCH. WE WERE UNABLE TO VERIFY A WARNING ISSUED FOR THE
STORM NEAR WILLAMETTE PASS BUT THE PASS WEBCAM DID SHOW A COUPLE
FRAMES OF HAIL ACCUMULATION. SO AM VERY CONFIDENT THERE WAS AT LEAST
SOME TREACHEROUS DRIVING FOR SOME TIME ALONG THE HIGHWAY AS THE CORE
OF THE STORM WAS A FEW MILES DOWNHILL FROM THERE. THE REST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE CREST WITH THE
REMAINING DEBRIS CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING OVERNIGHT.

IN OTHER NEWS...HAVE OPTED TO PULL THE STRATUS MENTION ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DO NOT
SUPPORT ANYTHING MUCH BEYOND SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST OVERNIGHT. LOOKING OFFSHORE...THERE IS THE SHORTWAVE
MENTIONED BELOW THAT HAS MOVED TO ABOUT 40N 133W AS OF THIS WRITING.
THIS LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BRING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL TROPOPAUSE FOLD
LIFT AND ACT ON PARCELS AROUND 600 MB. IF EVERYTHING COMES TOGETHER
JUST RIGHT WE MAY SEE A HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM NOT TERRIBLY LONG
AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF EUGENE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HEATING
SHOULD BE THE DRIVING TRIGGER UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THE SKY IS NOT
ALREADY COVERED WITH DEBRIS FROM EARLIER. UPDATES WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY. /JBONK


&&

./PREV DISC ISSUED 250 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MORE OR LESS A PERSISTENCE
PATTERN THIS WEEK OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY SMALL VARIANCES
FROM DAY TO DAY. THE LARGE WEATHER PICTURE CONTINUES TO INCLUDE AN
EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...GREAT BASIN...
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTS IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THESE TWO FEATURES HAVE BEEN CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO VARY FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY AT TIMES...DEPENDING ON
WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA UPPER LOW. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE HAS KEPT THE
MARINE LAYER SHALLOW...WITH ALL BUT IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WARMING
UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS PRESENTLY BETWEEN UPPER DISTURBANCES... WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITING THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE LIKELY WHY
CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN IN THE CASCADES.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY...AS A WELL DEFINED VORTMAX IS
GAINING STRENGTH OFF THE CA COAST NEAR 35N/135W. MEANWHILE REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM EX-HURRICANE HERNAN IS LIFTING NORTH INTO CALIFORNIA.
THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD COMBINE FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
FOR THE CASCADES EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STARTING IN NORTHERN CA
THEN LIFTING THROUGH OREGON THU...THEN INTO WA FRI.

PATTERN RECOGNITION-WISE IT APPEARS LIKELY AT LEAST A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN OUR CASCADES ZONES THURSDAY. HOWEVER
LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...BOTH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE RATHER
MARGINAL. THAT SAID...MODIFYING NAM OR GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS TO REFLECT
THE FORECASTED TEMPS IN THE CASCADE CREST YIELDS QUITE A BIT OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...UP TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE OR MORE. OVERALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST FORECAST SOUTH OF MT
JEFFERSON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE EXTENDING INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF LANE
COUNTY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER EXTENDS NORTH INTO THE WA CASCADES
FRI. WITH FLOW ALOFT MAINLY S-SW...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THUNDER WILL
DRIFT WEST OF THE CASCADES. A BAGGY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER
THE PAC NW INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE ERODES TO OUR EAST.
THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT LITTLE SENSIBLE CHANGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH
TEMPS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHERE NEAR 90 DEGREES FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS
WHILE COASTAL AREAS ARE SEASONABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S. SLIGHTLY DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW TEMPORARILY CLEARED THE
STRATUS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY...BUT SUSPECT IT WILL COME BACK
BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE THU NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING NOR INLAND
INTRUSION OF THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
WEAGLE

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY ALLOW A GREATER
WESTERLY/ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...PERHAPS COOLING INLAND AREAS
BY A FEW DEGREES AND DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL. AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES A
BIT STRONGER...EXPECT THE THUNDER RISK TO DECREASE ON OUR SIDE OF THE
CASCADES. ALSO THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN A LITTLE...PUSHING A
BIT FURTHER INLAND AS THE THERMAL LOW OVER THE MID-COLUMBIA BECOMES
MORE DOMINANT AND INCREASES THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT/FLOW. NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENTS ON THE HORIZON GOING WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY KEEP
INLAND CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. IT IS LIKELY THAT AREAS OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN A LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FROM
09Z TO 12Z...AND RETURN BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN
13Z AND 16Z THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL KEEP A FAIRLY
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF NORTH WINDS...GENERALLY STRONGEST EACH
DAY FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. STEEP LOCALLY DRIVEN
WIND WAVES WILL TEND TO DOMINATE THE SEAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
BUT TOTAL WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 6 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM-WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 310417
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
917 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN
REMAINS OUR MOST DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INLAND. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY ERODE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING MORE ONSHORE FLOW AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO GUIDE WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTO OUR AREA FOR OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE CASCADES.
ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE SHOULD PROMOTE ANOTHER DAY OF ENHANCED CASCADE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...A FAIRLY REPETITIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES OCCURRED THIS EVENING
WITH AREAS SOUTH OF OREGON HIGHWAY 58 BEARING THE BRUNT ONCE AGAIN.
ONE CELL IN PARTICULAR MOVED OFF THE CREST WITH RADAR INDICATED HAIL
EXCEEDING AN INCH. WE WERE UNABLE TO VERIFY A WARNING ISSUED FOR THE
STORM NEAR WILLAMETTE PASS BUT THE PASS WEBCAM DID SHOW A COUPLE
FRAMES OF HAIL ACCUMULATION. SO AM VERY CONFIDENT THERE WAS AT LEAST
SOME TREACHEROUS DRIVING FOR SOME TIME ALONG THE HIGHWAY AS THE CORE
OF THE STORM WAS A FEW MILES DOWNHILL FROM THERE. THE REST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE CREST WITH THE
REMAINING DEBRIS CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING OVERNIGHT.

IN OTHER NEWS...HAVE OPTED TO PULL THE STRATUS MENTION ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DO NOT
SUPPORT ANYTHING MUCH BEYOND SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST OVERNIGHT. LOOKING OFFSHORE...THERE IS THE SHORTWAVE
MENTIONED BELOW THAT HAS MOVED TO ABOUT 40N 133W AS OF THIS WRITING.
THIS LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BRING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL TROPOPAUSE FOLD
LIFT AND ACT ON PARCELS AROUND 600 MB. IF EVERYTHING COMES TOGETHER
JUST RIGHT WE MAY SEE A HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM NOT TERRIBLY LONG
AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF EUGENE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HEATING
SHOULD BE THE DRIVING TRIGGER UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THE SKY IS NOT
ALREADY COVERED WITH DEBRIS FROM EARLIER. UPDATES WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY. /JBONK


&&

./PREV DISC ISSUED 250 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MORE OR LESS A PERSISTENCE
PATTERN THIS WEEK OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY SMALL VARIANCES
FROM DAY TO DAY. THE LARGE WEATHER PICTURE CONTINUES TO INCLUDE AN
EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...GREAT BASIN...
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTS IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THESE TWO FEATURES HAVE BEEN CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO VARY FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY AT TIMES...DEPENDING ON
WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA UPPER LOW. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE HAS KEPT THE
MARINE LAYER SHALLOW...WITH ALL BUT IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WARMING
UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS PRESENTLY BETWEEN UPPER DISTURBANCES... WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITING THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE LIKELY WHY
CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN IN THE CASCADES.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY...AS A WELL DEFINED VORTMAX IS
GAINING STRENGTH OFF THE CA COAST NEAR 35N/135W. MEANWHILE REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM EX-HURRICANE HERNAN IS LIFTING NORTH INTO CALIFORNIA.
THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD COMBINE FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
FOR THE CASCADES EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STARTING IN NORTHERN CA
THEN LIFTING THROUGH OREGON THU...THEN INTO WA FRI.

PATTERN RECOGNITION-WISE IT APPEARS LIKELY AT LEAST A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN OUR CASCADES ZONES THURSDAY. HOWEVER
LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...BOTH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE RATHER
MARGINAL. THAT SAID...MODIFYING NAM OR GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS TO REFLECT
THE FORECASTED TEMPS IN THE CASCADE CREST YIELDS QUITE A BIT OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...UP TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE OR MORE. OVERALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST FORECAST SOUTH OF MT
JEFFERSON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE EXTENDING INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF LANE
COUNTY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER EXTENDS NORTH INTO THE WA CASCADES
FRI. WITH FLOW ALOFT MAINLY S-SW...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THUNDER WILL
DRIFT WEST OF THE CASCADES. A BAGGY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER
THE PAC NW INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE ERODES TO OUR EAST.
THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT LITTLE SENSIBLE CHANGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH
TEMPS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHERE NEAR 90 DEGREES FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS
WHILE COASTAL AREAS ARE SEASONABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S. SLIGHTLY DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW TEMPORARILY CLEARED THE
STRATUS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY...BUT SUSPECT IT WILL COME BACK
BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE THU NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING NOR INLAND
INTRUSION OF THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
WEAGLE

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY ALLOW A GREATER
WESTERLY/ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...PERHAPS COOLING INLAND AREAS
BY A FEW DEGREES AND DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL. AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES A
BIT STRONGER...EXPECT THE THUNDER RISK TO DECREASE ON OUR SIDE OF THE
CASCADES. ALSO THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN A LITTLE...PUSHING A
BIT FURTHER INLAND AS THE THERMAL LOW OVER THE MID-COLUMBIA BECOMES
MORE DOMINANT AND INCREASES THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT/FLOW. NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENTS ON THE HORIZON GOING WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY KEEP
INLAND CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. IT IS LIKELY THAT AREAS OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN A LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FROM
09Z TO 12Z...AND RETURN BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN
13Z AND 16Z THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL KEEP A FAIRLY
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF NORTH WINDS...GENERALLY STRONGEST EACH
DAY FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. STEEP LOCALLY DRIVEN
WIND WAVES WILL TEND TO DOMINATE THE SEAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
BUT TOTAL WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 6 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM-WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 310417
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
917 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN
REMAINS OUR MOST DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INLAND. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY ERODE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING MORE ONSHORE FLOW AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO GUIDE WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTO OUR AREA FOR OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE CASCADES.
ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE SHOULD PROMOTE ANOTHER DAY OF ENHANCED CASCADE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...A FAIRLY REPETITIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES OCCURRED THIS EVENING
WITH AREAS SOUTH OF OREGON HIGHWAY 58 BEARING THE BRUNT ONCE AGAIN.
ONE CELL IN PARTICULAR MOVED OFF THE CREST WITH RADAR INDICATED HAIL
EXCEEDING AN INCH. WE WERE UNABLE TO VERIFY A WARNING ISSUED FOR THE
STORM NEAR WILLAMETTE PASS BUT THE PASS WEBCAM DID SHOW A COUPLE
FRAMES OF HAIL ACCUMULATION. SO AM VERY CONFIDENT THERE WAS AT LEAST
SOME TREACHEROUS DRIVING FOR SOME TIME ALONG THE HIGHWAY AS THE CORE
OF THE STORM WAS A FEW MILES DOWNHILL FROM THERE. THE REST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE CREST WITH THE
REMAINING DEBRIS CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING OVERNIGHT.

IN OTHER NEWS...HAVE OPTED TO PULL THE STRATUS MENTION ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DO NOT
SUPPORT ANYTHING MUCH BEYOND SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST OVERNIGHT. LOOKING OFFSHORE...THERE IS THE SHORTWAVE
MENTIONED BELOW THAT HAS MOVED TO ABOUT 40N 133W AS OF THIS WRITING.
THIS LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BRING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL TROPOPAUSE FOLD
LIFT AND ACT ON PARCELS AROUND 600 MB. IF EVERYTHING COMES TOGETHER
JUST RIGHT WE MAY SEE A HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM NOT TERRIBLY LONG
AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF EUGENE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HEATING
SHOULD BE THE DRIVING TRIGGER UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THE SKY IS NOT
ALREADY COVERED WITH DEBRIS FROM EARLIER. UPDATES WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY. /JBONK


&&

./PREV DISC ISSUED 250 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MORE OR LESS A PERSISTENCE
PATTERN THIS WEEK OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY SMALL VARIANCES
FROM DAY TO DAY. THE LARGE WEATHER PICTURE CONTINUES TO INCLUDE AN
EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...GREAT BASIN...
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTS IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THESE TWO FEATURES HAVE BEEN CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO VARY FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY AT TIMES...DEPENDING ON
WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA UPPER LOW. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE HAS KEPT THE
MARINE LAYER SHALLOW...WITH ALL BUT IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WARMING
UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS PRESENTLY BETWEEN UPPER DISTURBANCES... WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITING THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE LIKELY WHY
CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN IN THE CASCADES.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY...AS A WELL DEFINED VORTMAX IS
GAINING STRENGTH OFF THE CA COAST NEAR 35N/135W. MEANWHILE REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM EX-HURRICANE HERNAN IS LIFTING NORTH INTO CALIFORNIA.
THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD COMBINE FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
FOR THE CASCADES EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STARTING IN NORTHERN CA
THEN LIFTING THROUGH OREGON THU...THEN INTO WA FRI.

PATTERN RECOGNITION-WISE IT APPEARS LIKELY AT LEAST A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN OUR CASCADES ZONES THURSDAY. HOWEVER
LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...BOTH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE RATHER
MARGINAL. THAT SAID...MODIFYING NAM OR GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS TO REFLECT
THE FORECASTED TEMPS IN THE CASCADE CREST YIELDS QUITE A BIT OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...UP TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE OR MORE. OVERALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST FORECAST SOUTH OF MT
JEFFERSON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE EXTENDING INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF LANE
COUNTY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER EXTENDS NORTH INTO THE WA CASCADES
FRI. WITH FLOW ALOFT MAINLY S-SW...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THUNDER WILL
DRIFT WEST OF THE CASCADES. A BAGGY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER
THE PAC NW INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE ERODES TO OUR EAST.
THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT LITTLE SENSIBLE CHANGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH
TEMPS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHERE NEAR 90 DEGREES FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS
WHILE COASTAL AREAS ARE SEASONABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S. SLIGHTLY DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW TEMPORARILY CLEARED THE
STRATUS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY...BUT SUSPECT IT WILL COME BACK
BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE THU NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING NOR INLAND
INTRUSION OF THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
WEAGLE

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY ALLOW A GREATER
WESTERLY/ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...PERHAPS COOLING INLAND AREAS
BY A FEW DEGREES AND DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL. AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES A
BIT STRONGER...EXPECT THE THUNDER RISK TO DECREASE ON OUR SIDE OF THE
CASCADES. ALSO THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN A LITTLE...PUSHING A
BIT FURTHER INLAND AS THE THERMAL LOW OVER THE MID-COLUMBIA BECOMES
MORE DOMINANT AND INCREASES THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT/FLOW. NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENTS ON THE HORIZON GOING WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY KEEP
INLAND CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. IT IS LIKELY THAT AREAS OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN A LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FROM
09Z TO 12Z...AND RETURN BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN
13Z AND 16Z THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL KEEP A FAIRLY
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF NORTH WINDS...GENERALLY STRONGEST EACH
DAY FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. STEEP LOCALLY DRIVEN
WIND WAVES WILL TEND TO DOMINATE THE SEAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
BUT TOTAL WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 6 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM-WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 310417
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
917 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN
REMAINS OUR MOST DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INLAND. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY ERODE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING MORE ONSHORE FLOW AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO GUIDE WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTO OUR AREA FOR OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE CASCADES.
ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE SHOULD PROMOTE ANOTHER DAY OF ENHANCED CASCADE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...A FAIRLY REPETITIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES OCCURRED THIS EVENING
WITH AREAS SOUTH OF OREGON HIGHWAY 58 BEARING THE BRUNT ONCE AGAIN.
ONE CELL IN PARTICULAR MOVED OFF THE CREST WITH RADAR INDICATED HAIL
EXCEEDING AN INCH. WE WERE UNABLE TO VERIFY A WARNING ISSUED FOR THE
STORM NEAR WILLAMETTE PASS BUT THE PASS WEBCAM DID SHOW A COUPLE
FRAMES OF HAIL ACCUMULATION. SO AM VERY CONFIDENT THERE WAS AT LEAST
SOME TREACHEROUS DRIVING FOR SOME TIME ALONG THE HIGHWAY AS THE CORE
OF THE STORM WAS A FEW MILES DOWNHILL FROM THERE. THE REST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE CREST WITH THE
REMAINING DEBRIS CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING OVERNIGHT.

IN OTHER NEWS...HAVE OPTED TO PULL THE STRATUS MENTION ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DO NOT
SUPPORT ANYTHING MUCH BEYOND SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST OVERNIGHT. LOOKING OFFSHORE...THERE IS THE SHORTWAVE
MENTIONED BELOW THAT HAS MOVED TO ABOUT 40N 133W AS OF THIS WRITING.
THIS LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BRING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL TROPOPAUSE FOLD
LIFT AND ACT ON PARCELS AROUND 600 MB. IF EVERYTHING COMES TOGETHER
JUST RIGHT WE MAY SEE A HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM NOT TERRIBLY LONG
AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF EUGENE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HEATING
SHOULD BE THE DRIVING TRIGGER UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THE SKY IS NOT
ALREADY COVERED WITH DEBRIS FROM EARLIER. UPDATES WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY. /JBONK


&&

./PREV DISC ISSUED 250 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MORE OR LESS A PERSISTENCE
PATTERN THIS WEEK OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY SMALL VARIANCES
FROM DAY TO DAY. THE LARGE WEATHER PICTURE CONTINUES TO INCLUDE AN
EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...GREAT BASIN...
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTS IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THESE TWO FEATURES HAVE BEEN CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO VARY FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY AT TIMES...DEPENDING ON
WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA UPPER LOW. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE HAS KEPT THE
MARINE LAYER SHALLOW...WITH ALL BUT IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WARMING
UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS PRESENTLY BETWEEN UPPER DISTURBANCES... WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITING THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE LIKELY WHY
CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN IN THE CASCADES.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY...AS A WELL DEFINED VORTMAX IS
GAINING STRENGTH OFF THE CA COAST NEAR 35N/135W. MEANWHILE REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM EX-HURRICANE HERNAN IS LIFTING NORTH INTO CALIFORNIA.
THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD COMBINE FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
FOR THE CASCADES EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STARTING IN NORTHERN CA
THEN LIFTING THROUGH OREGON THU...THEN INTO WA FRI.

PATTERN RECOGNITION-WISE IT APPEARS LIKELY AT LEAST A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN OUR CASCADES ZONES THURSDAY. HOWEVER
LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...BOTH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE RATHER
MARGINAL. THAT SAID...MODIFYING NAM OR GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS TO REFLECT
THE FORECASTED TEMPS IN THE CASCADE CREST YIELDS QUITE A BIT OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...UP TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE OR MORE. OVERALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST FORECAST SOUTH OF MT
JEFFERSON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE EXTENDING INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF LANE
COUNTY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER EXTENDS NORTH INTO THE WA CASCADES
FRI. WITH FLOW ALOFT MAINLY S-SW...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THUNDER WILL
DRIFT WEST OF THE CASCADES. A BAGGY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER
THE PAC NW INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE ERODES TO OUR EAST.
THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT LITTLE SENSIBLE CHANGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH
TEMPS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHERE NEAR 90 DEGREES FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS
WHILE COASTAL AREAS ARE SEASONABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S. SLIGHTLY DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW TEMPORARILY CLEARED THE
STRATUS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY...BUT SUSPECT IT WILL COME BACK
BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE THU NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING NOR INLAND
INTRUSION OF THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
WEAGLE

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY ALLOW A GREATER
WESTERLY/ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...PERHAPS COOLING INLAND AREAS
BY A FEW DEGREES AND DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL. AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES A
BIT STRONGER...EXPECT THE THUNDER RISK TO DECREASE ON OUR SIDE OF THE
CASCADES. ALSO THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN A LITTLE...PUSHING A
BIT FURTHER INLAND AS THE THERMAL LOW OVER THE MID-COLUMBIA BECOMES
MORE DOMINANT AND INCREASES THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT/FLOW. NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENTS ON THE HORIZON GOING WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY KEEP
INLAND CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. IT IS LIKELY THAT AREAS OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN A LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FROM
09Z TO 12Z...AND RETURN BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN
13Z AND 16Z THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL KEEP A FAIRLY
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF NORTH WINDS...GENERALLY STRONGEST EACH
DAY FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. STEEP LOCALLY DRIVEN
WIND WAVES WILL TEND TO DOMINATE THE SEAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
BUT TOTAL WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 6 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM-WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KSEW 310347
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST. WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS FROM A 5950 HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR THE BORDER OF MEXICO
AND NEW MEXICO. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IS STILL GENERALLY WEAK...BUT THE
EVENING SEABREEZE IS AGAIN RESULTING IN WESTERLIES GALES IN THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. THE FORECAST AREA HAS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...
AND THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COASTAL STRATUS THIS EVENING EVEN
OVER THE WATERS.

AS WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR DAYS NOW...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
WILL CHANGE LITTLE DURING THE SHORT TERM -- THAT IS TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SOME STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG COULD FORM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. BUT THE
ABSENCE OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OVER THE WESTERN WASHINGTON INTERIOR.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY AND WARMER THAN TODAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AT THE COAST AND MOSTLY 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND.

COASTAL STRATUS PROBABLY WILL BE PRESENT THURSDAY EVENING...AND IT
WILL LIKELY PUSH WEAKLY INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT -- THROUGH THE STRAIT
OF JUAN DE FUCA TO WHIDBEY ISLAND AND THE SAN JUANS...AND THROUGH
THE CHEHALIS GAP TO THE SOUTH PUGET SOUND REGION AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. THE STRATUS THAT DOES MOVE INLAND SHOULD BURN
OFF MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING...AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER
GENERALLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST AND MID
70S TO MID 80S INLAND. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY SHOULD REPEAT THE
SCENARIO CLOSELY.

MONSOON MOISTURE ROTATING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER
HIGH IS PRODUCING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OREGON CASCADES
AGAIN THIS EVENING. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL SPREAD THE CONVECTION
TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADES CREST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.   MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...HERE IS THE LONG TERM SECTION FROM THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST DISCUSSION -- THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF INTO
B.C. ON SUNDAY. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL POP
OVER THE NRN CASCADES BUT THE AIR MASS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD
BEGIN TO STABILIZE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON A PERIOD OF RIDGING
MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WARM AND
DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH LESS MORNING CLOUDS. BY MID WEEK SOME
MODELS START TO SHOW STRONGER WESTERLY OR SW FLOW ALOFT OVER WRN WA
WITH LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THIS IS STILL PROBABLY A DRY PATTERN
BUT COULD PRODUCE RENEWED MARINE CLOUDS AND BACKING OFF OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE 80S EARLY TO MID WEEK MAY STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE UPPER 70S...OR NEAR AVERAGE...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE WRN U.S. WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER WA. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS HIGH PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE WITH THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES.
AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
ALONG THE COAST BUT POSSIBLY INTO THE CHEHALIS GAP AND STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA BY DAYBREAK. ELSEWHERE CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE.

KSEA...CLEAR WITH NLY BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...RACE ROCKS HAD WEST 35KTS AT 8PM AND A GALE WARNING IS UP
FOR THE CENTRAL STRAIT...BUT BUOY88 AT THE WESTERNMOST POINT OF THE
EAST ENTRANCE ZONE ONLY HAD WEST 21G25KT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS UP THERE. DESTRUCTION ISLAND HAS BEEN RIGHT AROUND NW27KT ALL
EVENING AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE
COASTAL ZONE THAT INCLUDES DESTRUCTION ISLAND AND THE ZONE SOUTH OF
THAT...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.

THERE IS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH THERMALLY
INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES AND THERE WILL BE LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EASTERN
ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY JAMES ISLAND TO
CAPE SHOALWATER AND OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 310053 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST. IT WILL BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
PATTERN OVER THE PAC NW. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
EVIDENT ON WV VAPOR IMAGERY LIFTING NE THROUGH OREGON AND WILL CLIP
SE WA TONIGHT. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS TRIGGERING CONVECTION OVER THE
OREGON CASCADES MODELS INSIST THE SW FLOW WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL/N
CASCADES UNDER A STABLE REGIME AND ALSO SHUNT MOISTURE OFF TO THE E
OF OUR AREA. BECAUSE THE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED SO FAR INLAND OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES...VARYING DEGREES OF ONSHORE FLOW
WILL WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN WA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN
THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH REMAINS E OF THE CASCADES AND SHOULD
PROHIBIT ANY OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN FROM DEVELOPING W OF THE
CASCADES. REGARDLESS...UPPER HEIGHTS ABOVE 5880+ METERS WILL SUPPORT
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE RIDGE TEMPORARILY
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS COULD REACH THE UPPER 80S OR EVEN
CLOSE TO 90 IN A COUPLE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AROUND THE FAR S SOUND
AND INTERIOR. LATE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS WILL INTRUDE FURTHER
INLAND EACH MORNING BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
THE INCREASED MARINE INFLUENCE WILL HELP MODERATE DAYTIME HIGHS BY A
FEW DEGREES...BUT STILL REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE AIR MASS BECOMES WEAKLY UNSTABLE STARTING FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CASCADES AND OLYMPICS. MODELS TODAY HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
SCOPE OF POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS WRN WA AND SHOW THE
DRIER SW FLOW PATTERN DOMINATING THE OVERALL PATTERN.
HOWEVER...WEAKNESS AT 500 MB DEVELOPS JUST OFFSHORE STEERING SYSTEMS
NWD THROUGH THE INTERIOR PAC NW. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
LIFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER
STRUGGLING WITH THIS POTENTIAL THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IT SEEMS BEST TO
AT LEAST MENTION THE CHANCE FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF INTO B.C. ON
SUNDAY. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL POP OVER THE NRN
CASCADES BUT THE AIR MASS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BEGIN TO
STABILIZE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON A PERIOD OF RIDGING MONDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WARM AND DRY
WEATHER PATTERN WITH LESS MORNING CLOUDS. BY MID WEEK SOME MODELS
START TO SHOW STRONGER WESTERLY OR SW FLOW ALOFT OVER WRN WA WITH
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THIS IS STILL PROBABLY A DRY PATTERN BUT
COULD PRODUCE RENEWED MARINE CLOUDS AND BACKING OFF OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE 80S EARLY TO MID WEEK MAY STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE UPPER 70S...OR NEAR AVERAGE...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...A LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER NEVADA WITH
TROUGHING CENTERED ALONG 145W. THIS WILL GIVE LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG 130W
COMBINED WITH THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES
WILL GIVE LIGHT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER TONIGHT THAN IT WAS TUESDAY NIGHT.

WHILE PATCHES OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS REMAIN IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA THIS AFTERNOON...MOISTURE HAS EVAPORATED OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG AND STRATUS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE CHEHALIS GAP AND STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT GOOD VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. ALBRECHT

KSEA...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
8-11 KT WILL BECOME NE 5-7 KT AFTER 04Z THEN WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COMBINED WITH
THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 130W HAS WEAKENED A BIT TODAY...SO EXPECT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. DESTRUCTION
ISLAND IS BLOWING AROUND 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NW...BUT THAT
SITE IS ELEVATED AND THE AIR MASS IS QUITE STABLE...SO THE MOMENTUM
IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE SEA SURFACE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL ZONES AND THROUGH THE STRAIT LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE NWLY FLOW MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE
COASTAL ZONES ON FRIDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF GALE
CONDITIONS AROUND THE CENTRAL STRAIT FRIDAY EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS.
ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN
      DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML























000
FXUS66 KSEW 310053 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST. IT WILL BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
PATTERN OVER THE PAC NW. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
EVIDENT ON WV VAPOR IMAGERY LIFTING NE THROUGH OREGON AND WILL CLIP
SE WA TONIGHT. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS TRIGGERING CONVECTION OVER THE
OREGON CASCADES MODELS INSIST THE SW FLOW WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL/N
CASCADES UNDER A STABLE REGIME AND ALSO SHUNT MOISTURE OFF TO THE E
OF OUR AREA. BECAUSE THE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED SO FAR INLAND OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES...VARYING DEGREES OF ONSHORE FLOW
WILL WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN WA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN
THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH REMAINS E OF THE CASCADES AND SHOULD
PROHIBIT ANY OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN FROM DEVELOPING W OF THE
CASCADES. REGARDLESS...UPPER HEIGHTS ABOVE 5880+ METERS WILL SUPPORT
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE RIDGE TEMPORARILY
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS COULD REACH THE UPPER 80S OR EVEN
CLOSE TO 90 IN A COUPLE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AROUND THE FAR S SOUND
AND INTERIOR. LATE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS WILL INTRUDE FURTHER
INLAND EACH MORNING BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
THE INCREASED MARINE INFLUENCE WILL HELP MODERATE DAYTIME HIGHS BY A
FEW DEGREES...BUT STILL REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE AIR MASS BECOMES WEAKLY UNSTABLE STARTING FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CASCADES AND OLYMPICS. MODELS TODAY HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
SCOPE OF POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS WRN WA AND SHOW THE
DRIER SW FLOW PATTERN DOMINATING THE OVERALL PATTERN.
HOWEVER...WEAKNESS AT 500 MB DEVELOPS JUST OFFSHORE STEERING SYSTEMS
NWD THROUGH THE INTERIOR PAC NW. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
LIFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER
STRUGGLING WITH THIS POTENTIAL THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IT SEEMS BEST TO
AT LEAST MENTION THE CHANCE FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF INTO B.C. ON
SUNDAY. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL POP OVER THE NRN
CASCADES BUT THE AIR MASS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BEGIN TO
STABILIZE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON A PERIOD OF RIDGING MONDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WARM AND DRY
WEATHER PATTERN WITH LESS MORNING CLOUDS. BY MID WEEK SOME MODELS
START TO SHOW STRONGER WESTERLY OR SW FLOW ALOFT OVER WRN WA WITH
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THIS IS STILL PROBABLY A DRY PATTERN BUT
COULD PRODUCE RENEWED MARINE CLOUDS AND BACKING OFF OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE 80S EARLY TO MID WEEK MAY STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE UPPER 70S...OR NEAR AVERAGE...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...A LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER NEVADA WITH
TROUGHING CENTERED ALONG 145W. THIS WILL GIVE LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG 130W
COMBINED WITH THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES
WILL GIVE LIGHT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER TONIGHT THAN IT WAS TUESDAY NIGHT.

WHILE PATCHES OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS REMAIN IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA THIS AFTERNOON...MOISTURE HAS EVAPORATED OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG AND STRATUS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE CHEHALIS GAP AND STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT GOOD VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. ALBRECHT

KSEA...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
8-11 KT WILL BECOME NE 5-7 KT AFTER 04Z THEN WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COMBINED WITH
THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 130W HAS WEAKENED A BIT TODAY...SO EXPECT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. DESTRUCTION
ISLAND IS BLOWING AROUND 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NW...BUT THAT
SITE IS ELEVATED AND THE AIR MASS IS QUITE STABLE...SO THE MOMENTUM
IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE SEA SURFACE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL ZONES AND THROUGH THE STRAIT LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE NWLY FLOW MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE
COASTAL ZONES ON FRIDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF GALE
CONDITIONS AROUND THE CENTRAL STRAIT FRIDAY EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS.
ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN
      DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML























000
FXUS66 KSEW 310053 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST. IT WILL BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
PATTERN OVER THE PAC NW. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
EVIDENT ON WV VAPOR IMAGERY LIFTING NE THROUGH OREGON AND WILL CLIP
SE WA TONIGHT. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS TRIGGERING CONVECTION OVER THE
OREGON CASCADES MODELS INSIST THE SW FLOW WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL/N
CASCADES UNDER A STABLE REGIME AND ALSO SHUNT MOISTURE OFF TO THE E
OF OUR AREA. BECAUSE THE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED SO FAR INLAND OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES...VARYING DEGREES OF ONSHORE FLOW
WILL WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN WA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN
THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH REMAINS E OF THE CASCADES AND SHOULD
PROHIBIT ANY OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN FROM DEVELOPING W OF THE
CASCADES. REGARDLESS...UPPER HEIGHTS ABOVE 5880+ METERS WILL SUPPORT
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE RIDGE TEMPORARILY
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS COULD REACH THE UPPER 80S OR EVEN
CLOSE TO 90 IN A COUPLE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AROUND THE FAR S SOUND
AND INTERIOR. LATE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS WILL INTRUDE FURTHER
INLAND EACH MORNING BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
THE INCREASED MARINE INFLUENCE WILL HELP MODERATE DAYTIME HIGHS BY A
FEW DEGREES...BUT STILL REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE AIR MASS BECOMES WEAKLY UNSTABLE STARTING FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CASCADES AND OLYMPICS. MODELS TODAY HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
SCOPE OF POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS WRN WA AND SHOW THE
DRIER SW FLOW PATTERN DOMINATING THE OVERALL PATTERN.
HOWEVER...WEAKNESS AT 500 MB DEVELOPS JUST OFFSHORE STEERING SYSTEMS
NWD THROUGH THE INTERIOR PAC NW. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
LIFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER
STRUGGLING WITH THIS POTENTIAL THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IT SEEMS BEST TO
AT LEAST MENTION THE CHANCE FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF INTO B.C. ON
SUNDAY. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL POP OVER THE NRN
CASCADES BUT THE AIR MASS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BEGIN TO
STABILIZE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON A PERIOD OF RIDGING MONDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WARM AND DRY
WEATHER PATTERN WITH LESS MORNING CLOUDS. BY MID WEEK SOME MODELS
START TO SHOW STRONGER WESTERLY OR SW FLOW ALOFT OVER WRN WA WITH
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THIS IS STILL PROBABLY A DRY PATTERN BUT
COULD PRODUCE RENEWED MARINE CLOUDS AND BACKING OFF OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE 80S EARLY TO MID WEEK MAY STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE UPPER 70S...OR NEAR AVERAGE...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...A LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER NEVADA WITH
TROUGHING CENTERED ALONG 145W. THIS WILL GIVE LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG 130W
COMBINED WITH THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES
WILL GIVE LIGHT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER TONIGHT THAN IT WAS TUESDAY NIGHT.

WHILE PATCHES OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS REMAIN IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA THIS AFTERNOON...MOISTURE HAS EVAPORATED OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG AND STRATUS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE CHEHALIS GAP AND STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT GOOD VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. ALBRECHT

KSEA...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
8-11 KT WILL BECOME NE 5-7 KT AFTER 04Z THEN WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COMBINED WITH
THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 130W HAS WEAKENED A BIT TODAY...SO EXPECT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. DESTRUCTION
ISLAND IS BLOWING AROUND 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NW...BUT THAT
SITE IS ELEVATED AND THE AIR MASS IS QUITE STABLE...SO THE MOMENTUM
IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE SEA SURFACE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL ZONES AND THROUGH THE STRAIT LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE NWLY FLOW MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE
COASTAL ZONES ON FRIDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF GALE
CONDITIONS AROUND THE CENTRAL STRAIT FRIDAY EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS.
ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN
      DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML























000
FXUS66 KSEW 310053 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST. IT WILL BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
PATTERN OVER THE PAC NW. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
EVIDENT ON WV VAPOR IMAGERY LIFTING NE THROUGH OREGON AND WILL CLIP
SE WA TONIGHT. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS TRIGGERING CONVECTION OVER THE
OREGON CASCADES MODELS INSIST THE SW FLOW WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL/N
CASCADES UNDER A STABLE REGIME AND ALSO SHUNT MOISTURE OFF TO THE E
OF OUR AREA. BECAUSE THE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED SO FAR INLAND OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES...VARYING DEGREES OF ONSHORE FLOW
WILL WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN WA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN
THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH REMAINS E OF THE CASCADES AND SHOULD
PROHIBIT ANY OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN FROM DEVELOPING W OF THE
CASCADES. REGARDLESS...UPPER HEIGHTS ABOVE 5880+ METERS WILL SUPPORT
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE RIDGE TEMPORARILY
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS COULD REACH THE UPPER 80S OR EVEN
CLOSE TO 90 IN A COUPLE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AROUND THE FAR S SOUND
AND INTERIOR. LATE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS WILL INTRUDE FURTHER
INLAND EACH MORNING BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
THE INCREASED MARINE INFLUENCE WILL HELP MODERATE DAYTIME HIGHS BY A
FEW DEGREES...BUT STILL REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE AIR MASS BECOMES WEAKLY UNSTABLE STARTING FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CASCADES AND OLYMPICS. MODELS TODAY HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
SCOPE OF POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS WRN WA AND SHOW THE
DRIER SW FLOW PATTERN DOMINATING THE OVERALL PATTERN.
HOWEVER...WEAKNESS AT 500 MB DEVELOPS JUST OFFSHORE STEERING SYSTEMS
NWD THROUGH THE INTERIOR PAC NW. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
LIFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER
STRUGGLING WITH THIS POTENTIAL THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IT SEEMS BEST TO
AT LEAST MENTION THE CHANCE FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF INTO B.C. ON
SUNDAY. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL POP OVER THE NRN
CASCADES BUT THE AIR MASS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BEGIN TO
STABILIZE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON A PERIOD OF RIDGING MONDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WARM AND DRY
WEATHER PATTERN WITH LESS MORNING CLOUDS. BY MID WEEK SOME MODELS
START TO SHOW STRONGER WESTERLY OR SW FLOW ALOFT OVER WRN WA WITH
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THIS IS STILL PROBABLY A DRY PATTERN BUT
COULD PRODUCE RENEWED MARINE CLOUDS AND BACKING OFF OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE 80S EARLY TO MID WEEK MAY STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE UPPER 70S...OR NEAR AVERAGE...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...A LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER NEVADA WITH
TROUGHING CENTERED ALONG 145W. THIS WILL GIVE LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG 130W
COMBINED WITH THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES
WILL GIVE LIGHT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER TONIGHT THAN IT WAS TUESDAY NIGHT.

WHILE PATCHES OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS REMAIN IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA THIS AFTERNOON...MOISTURE HAS EVAPORATED OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG AND STRATUS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE CHEHALIS GAP AND STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT GOOD VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. ALBRECHT

KSEA...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
8-11 KT WILL BECOME NE 5-7 KT AFTER 04Z THEN WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COMBINED WITH
THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 130W HAS WEAKENED A BIT TODAY...SO EXPECT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. DESTRUCTION
ISLAND IS BLOWING AROUND 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NW...BUT THAT
SITE IS ELEVATED AND THE AIR MASS IS QUITE STABLE...SO THE MOMENTUM
IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE SEA SURFACE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL ZONES AND THROUGH THE STRAIT LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE NWLY FLOW MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE
COASTAL ZONES ON FRIDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF GALE
CONDITIONS AROUND THE CENTRAL STRAIT FRIDAY EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS.
ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN
      DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML























000
FXUS66 KOTX 310030
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
530 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be partly cloudy and hot with isolated thunderstorms
through the end of the week and into the weekend. No significant
relief from the hot weather is forecast through the seven-day
forecast period. However, only a few spots may reach the 100-degree
mark. Isolated thunderstorms the next several days are not
expected to be strong or severe but could bring localized heavy
downpours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Tonight through Saturday night. The forecast area
will be located on the backside of an upper level ridge through
Saturday and will be influenced by a weak sw flow aloft. A few
disturbances in the flow may increase moisture and lift to a
presently unstable air mass...resulting in isolated thunderstorms.
Due to a weak mid-level shear and marginal instability...most
storms will be garden variety and diurnally driven. The main
concern will be the slow storm movement bringing heavy downpours.
Today there have been a few showers sitting near the northeast
mountains with storm movement less than 10 mph. Forecasters will
need to keep a close eye on storms that may develop near burn
scars in steep terrain. Thunderstorms will mainly be confined to
central and northern Idaho, but a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms was added to all zones on Saturday. All models hint
at a shortwave off the coast edging inland that will steepen lapse
rates across eastern Washington on Saturday. Increasing clouds
will keep temperatures from climbing significantly during the
afternoon Thurs-Sat, but the heat advisory for the Lewiston area
will be extended through Thursday evening as this area will have
overnight lows around 70 and afternoon temperatures in the 100-105
degree range.

Sunday through Wednesday...No major changes are expected in the
weather pattern during the remainder of the period. The Pacific NW
will be influenced by a broad upper level ridge and an inverted
surface thermal trough. Afternoon temperatures will remain in the
mid 80s to mid 90s. A slight chance of thunderstorms is forecast
for the afternoon and evening on Sunday and Monday...as weak
impulses pass through the region. Of course, any threat of
thunderstorms brings fire weather concerns but there does not
appear to be any organized waves to increase shear and enhance
lift for significant lightning strikes. moisture is limited as
well. Monsoonal moisture advection will primarily be directed
east of the Rockies. I`ve kept thunderstorms out of the forecast
for most of the area Tuesday and Wednesday as the flow is more
westerly. Models are in general agreement so confidence in the
continued hot temperatures is high...but there is uncertainty in
the thunderstorm forecast...particularly where thunderstorms will
be located Sunday and Monday. Wister

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Afternoon cu
will dissipate with setting sun. Cu and cirrus will develop again
Thur aftn. Isolated thunderstorm development is possible from the
Blue mtns to Lookout Pass thurs afternoon/evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  96  66  93  65  92 /  10   0   0  10  10  20
Coeur d`Alene  62  94  59  92  62  90 /  10  10  10  10  20  20
Pullman        56  95  61  91  57  91 /  10  10  10  20  20  20
Lewiston       70 102  69  97  68  97 /  10  10  10  30  30  20
Colville       57 101  57  95  59  95 /  10   0  10  10  10  20
Sandpoint      54  92  52  89  56  87 /  10   0  10  10  20  30
Kellogg        61  93  57  90  62  87 /  10  10  10  20  20  20
Moses Lake     64 100  65  97  64  97 /   0   0  10  10  10  20
Wenatchee      71 100  67  96  71  97 /   0   0  10  10  10  20
Omak           65 100  63  98  68  97 /   0   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM PDT Thursday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Moses Lake Area-
     Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-
     Wenatchee Area.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM PDT Thursday for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties.

&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 310030
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
530 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be partly cloudy and hot with isolated thunderstorms
through the end of the week and into the weekend. No significant
relief from the hot weather is forecast through the seven-day
forecast period. However, only a few spots may reach the 100-degree
mark. Isolated thunderstorms the next several days are not
expected to be strong or severe but could bring localized heavy
downpours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Tonight through Saturday night. The forecast area
will be located on the backside of an upper level ridge through
Saturday and will be influenced by a weak sw flow aloft. A few
disturbances in the flow may increase moisture and lift to a
presently unstable air mass...resulting in isolated thunderstorms.
Due to a weak mid-level shear and marginal instability...most
storms will be garden variety and diurnally driven. The main
concern will be the slow storm movement bringing heavy downpours.
Today there have been a few showers sitting near the northeast
mountains with storm movement less than 10 mph. Forecasters will
need to keep a close eye on storms that may develop near burn
scars in steep terrain. Thunderstorms will mainly be confined to
central and northern Idaho, but a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms was added to all zones on Saturday. All models hint
at a shortwave off the coast edging inland that will steepen lapse
rates across eastern Washington on Saturday. Increasing clouds
will keep temperatures from climbing significantly during the
afternoon Thurs-Sat, but the heat advisory for the Lewiston area
will be extended through Thursday evening as this area will have
overnight lows around 70 and afternoon temperatures in the 100-105
degree range.

Sunday through Wednesday...No major changes are expected in the
weather pattern during the remainder of the period. The Pacific NW
will be influenced by a broad upper level ridge and an inverted
surface thermal trough. Afternoon temperatures will remain in the
mid 80s to mid 90s. A slight chance of thunderstorms is forecast
for the afternoon and evening on Sunday and Monday...as weak
impulses pass through the region. Of course, any threat of
thunderstorms brings fire weather concerns but there does not
appear to be any organized waves to increase shear and enhance
lift for significant lightning strikes. moisture is limited as
well. Monsoonal moisture advection will primarily be directed
east of the Rockies. I`ve kept thunderstorms out of the forecast
for most of the area Tuesday and Wednesday as the flow is more
westerly. Models are in general agreement so confidence in the
continued hot temperatures is high...but there is uncertainty in
the thunderstorm forecast...particularly where thunderstorms will
be located Sunday and Monday. Wister

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Afternoon cu
will dissipate with setting sun. Cu and cirrus will develop again
Thur aftn. Isolated thunderstorm development is possible from the
Blue mtns to Lookout Pass thurs afternoon/evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  96  66  93  65  92 /  10   0   0  10  10  20
Coeur d`Alene  62  94  59  92  62  90 /  10  10  10  10  20  20
Pullman        56  95  61  91  57  91 /  10  10  10  20  20  20
Lewiston       70 102  69  97  68  97 /  10  10  10  30  30  20
Colville       57 101  57  95  59  95 /  10   0  10  10  10  20
Sandpoint      54  92  52  89  56  87 /  10   0  10  10  20  30
Kellogg        61  93  57  90  62  87 /  10  10  10  20  20  20
Moses Lake     64 100  65  97  64  97 /   0   0  10  10  10  20
Wenatchee      71 100  67  96  71  97 /   0   0  10  10  10  20
Omak           65 100  63  98  68  97 /   0   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM PDT Thursday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Moses Lake Area-
     Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-
     Wenatchee Area.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM PDT Thursday for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties.

&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 310030
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
530 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be partly cloudy and hot with isolated thunderstorms
through the end of the week and into the weekend. No significant
relief from the hot weather is forecast through the seven-day
forecast period. However, only a few spots may reach the 100-degree
mark. Isolated thunderstorms the next several days are not
expected to be strong or severe but could bring localized heavy
downpours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Tonight through Saturday night. The forecast area
will be located on the backside of an upper level ridge through
Saturday and will be influenced by a weak sw flow aloft. A few
disturbances in the flow may increase moisture and lift to a
presently unstable air mass...resulting in isolated thunderstorms.
Due to a weak mid-level shear and marginal instability...most
storms will be garden variety and diurnally driven. The main
concern will be the slow storm movement bringing heavy downpours.
Today there have been a few showers sitting near the northeast
mountains with storm movement less than 10 mph. Forecasters will
need to keep a close eye on storms that may develop near burn
scars in steep terrain. Thunderstorms will mainly be confined to
central and northern Idaho, but a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms was added to all zones on Saturday. All models hint
at a shortwave off the coast edging inland that will steepen lapse
rates across eastern Washington on Saturday. Increasing clouds
will keep temperatures from climbing significantly during the
afternoon Thurs-Sat, but the heat advisory for the Lewiston area
will be extended through Thursday evening as this area will have
overnight lows around 70 and afternoon temperatures in the 100-105
degree range.

Sunday through Wednesday...No major changes are expected in the
weather pattern during the remainder of the period. The Pacific NW
will be influenced by a broad upper level ridge and an inverted
surface thermal trough. Afternoon temperatures will remain in the
mid 80s to mid 90s. A slight chance of thunderstorms is forecast
for the afternoon and evening on Sunday and Monday...as weak
impulses pass through the region. Of course, any threat of
thunderstorms brings fire weather concerns but there does not
appear to be any organized waves to increase shear and enhance
lift for significant lightning strikes. moisture is limited as
well. Monsoonal moisture advection will primarily be directed
east of the Rockies. I`ve kept thunderstorms out of the forecast
for most of the area Tuesday and Wednesday as the flow is more
westerly. Models are in general agreement so confidence in the
continued hot temperatures is high...but there is uncertainty in
the thunderstorm forecast...particularly where thunderstorms will
be located Sunday and Monday. Wister

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Afternoon cu
will dissipate with setting sun. Cu and cirrus will develop again
Thur aftn. Isolated thunderstorm development is possible from the
Blue mtns to Lookout Pass thurs afternoon/evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  96  66  93  65  92 /  10   0   0  10  10  20
Coeur d`Alene  62  94  59  92  62  90 /  10  10  10  10  20  20
Pullman        56  95  61  91  57  91 /  10  10  10  20  20  20
Lewiston       70 102  69  97  68  97 /  10  10  10  30  30  20
Colville       57 101  57  95  59  95 /  10   0  10  10  10  20
Sandpoint      54  92  52  89  56  87 /  10   0  10  10  20  30
Kellogg        61  93  57  90  62  87 /  10  10  10  20  20  20
Moses Lake     64 100  65  97  64  97 /   0   0  10  10  10  20
Wenatchee      71 100  67  96  71  97 /   0   0  10  10  10  20
Omak           65 100  63  98  68  97 /   0   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM PDT Thursday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Moses Lake Area-
     Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-
     Wenatchee Area.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM PDT Thursday for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties.

&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 310030
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
530 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be partly cloudy and hot with isolated thunderstorms
through the end of the week and into the weekend. No significant
relief from the hot weather is forecast through the seven-day
forecast period. However, only a few spots may reach the 100-degree
mark. Isolated thunderstorms the next several days are not
expected to be strong or severe but could bring localized heavy
downpours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Tonight through Saturday night. The forecast area
will be located on the backside of an upper level ridge through
Saturday and will be influenced by a weak sw flow aloft. A few
disturbances in the flow may increase moisture and lift to a
presently unstable air mass...resulting in isolated thunderstorms.
Due to a weak mid-level shear and marginal instability...most
storms will be garden variety and diurnally driven. The main
concern will be the slow storm movement bringing heavy downpours.
Today there have been a few showers sitting near the northeast
mountains with storm movement less than 10 mph. Forecasters will
need to keep a close eye on storms that may develop near burn
scars in steep terrain. Thunderstorms will mainly be confined to
central and northern Idaho, but a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms was added to all zones on Saturday. All models hint
at a shortwave off the coast edging inland that will steepen lapse
rates across eastern Washington on Saturday. Increasing clouds
will keep temperatures from climbing significantly during the
afternoon Thurs-Sat, but the heat advisory for the Lewiston area
will be extended through Thursday evening as this area will have
overnight lows around 70 and afternoon temperatures in the 100-105
degree range.

Sunday through Wednesday...No major changes are expected in the
weather pattern during the remainder of the period. The Pacific NW
will be influenced by a broad upper level ridge and an inverted
surface thermal trough. Afternoon temperatures will remain in the
mid 80s to mid 90s. A slight chance of thunderstorms is forecast
for the afternoon and evening on Sunday and Monday...as weak
impulses pass through the region. Of course, any threat of
thunderstorms brings fire weather concerns but there does not
appear to be any organized waves to increase shear and enhance
lift for significant lightning strikes. moisture is limited as
well. Monsoonal moisture advection will primarily be directed
east of the Rockies. I`ve kept thunderstorms out of the forecast
for most of the area Tuesday and Wednesday as the flow is more
westerly. Models are in general agreement so confidence in the
continued hot temperatures is high...but there is uncertainty in
the thunderstorm forecast...particularly where thunderstorms will
be located Sunday and Monday. Wister

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Afternoon cu
will dissipate with setting sun. Cu and cirrus will develop again
Thur aftn. Isolated thunderstorm development is possible from the
Blue mtns to Lookout Pass thurs afternoon/evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  96  66  93  65  92 /  10   0   0  10  10  20
Coeur d`Alene  62  94  59  92  62  90 /  10  10  10  10  20  20
Pullman        56  95  61  91  57  91 /  10  10  10  20  20  20
Lewiston       70 102  69  97  68  97 /  10  10  10  30  30  20
Colville       57 101  57  95  59  95 /  10   0  10  10  10  20
Sandpoint      54  92  52  89  56  87 /  10   0  10  10  20  30
Kellogg        61  93  57  90  62  87 /  10  10  10  20  20  20
Moses Lake     64 100  65  97  64  97 /   0   0  10  10  10  20
Wenatchee      71 100  67  96  71  97 /   0   0  10  10  10  20
Omak           65 100  63  98  68  97 /   0   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM PDT Thursday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Moses Lake Area-
     Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-
     Wenatchee Area.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM PDT Thursday for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties.

&&




000
FXUS66 KSEW 302234
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST. IT WILL BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
PATTERN OVER THE PAC NW. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
EVIDENT ON WV VAPOR IMAGERY LIFTING NE THROUGH OREGON AND WILL CLIP
SE WA TONIGHT. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS TRIGGERING CONVECTION OVER THE
OREGON CASCADES MODELS INSIST THE SW FLOW WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL/N
CASCADES UNDER A STABLE REGIME AND ALSO SHUNT MOISTURE OFF TO THE E
OF OUR AREA. BECAUSE THE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED SO FAR INLAND OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES...VARYING DEGREES OF ONSHORE FLOW
WILL WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN WA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN
THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH REMAINS E OF THE CASCADES AND SHOULD
PROHIBIT ANY OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN FROM DEVELOPING W OF THE
CASCADES. REGARDLESS...UPPER HEIGHTS ABOVE 5880+ METERS WILL SUPPORT
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE RIDGE TEMPORARILY
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS COULD REACH THE UPPER 80S OR EVEN
CLOSE TO 90 IN A COUPLE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AROUND THE FAR S SOUND
AND INTERIOR. LATE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS WILL INTRUDE FURTHER
INLAND EACH MORNING BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
THE INCREASED MARINE INFLUENCE WILL HELP MODERATE DAYTIME HIGHS BY A
FEW DEGREES...BUT STILL REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE AIR MASS BECOMES WEAKLY UNSTABLE STARTING FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CASCADES AND OLYMPICS. MODELS TODAY HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
SCOPE OF POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS WRN WA AND SHOW THE
DRIER SW FLOW PATTERN DOMINATING THE OVERALL PATTERN.
HOWEVER...WEAKNESS AT 500 MB DEVELOPS JUST OFFSHORE STEERING SYSTEMS
NWD THROUGH THE INTERIOR PAC NW. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
LIFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER
STRUGGLING WITH THIS POTENTIAL THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IT SEEMS BEST TO
AT LEAST MENTION THE CHANCE FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF INTO B.C. ON
SUNDAY. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL POP OVER THE NRN
CASCADES BUT THE AIR MASS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BEGIN TO
STABILIZE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON A PERIOD OF RIDGING MONDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WARM AND DRY
WEATHER PATTERN WITH LESS MORNING CLOUDS. BY MID WEEK SOME MODELS
START TO SHOW STRONGER WESTERLY OR SW FLOW ALOFT OVER WRN WA WITH
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THIS IS STILL PROBABLY A DRY PATTERN BUT
COULD PRODUCE RENEWED MARINE CLOUDS AND BACKING OFF OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE 80S EARLY TO MID WEEK MAY STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE UPPER 70S...OR NEAR AVERAGE...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...A LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER NEVADA WITH
TROUGHING CENTERED ALONG 145W. THIS WILL GIVE LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG 130W
COMBINED WITH THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES
WILL GIVE LIGHT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER TONIGHT THAN IT WAS TUESDAY NIGHT.

WHILE PATCHES OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS REMAIN IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA THIS AFTERNOON...MOISTURE HAS EVAPORATED OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG AND STRATUS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE CHEHALIS GAP AND STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT GOOD VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. ALBRECHT

KSEA...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
8-11 KT WILL BECOME NE 5-7 KT AFTER 04Z THEN WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COMBINED WITH
THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 130W HAS WEAKENED A BIT TODAY...SO EXPECT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. DESTRUCTION
ISLAND IS BLOWING AROUND 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NW...BUT THAT
SITE IS ELEVATED AND THE AIR MASS IS QUITE STABLE...SO THE MOMENTUM
IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE SEA SURFACE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL ZONES AND THROUGH THE STRAIT LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE NWLY FLOW MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE
COASTAL ZONES ON FRIDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF GALE
CONDITIONS AROUND THE CENTRAL STRAIT FRIDAY EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS.
ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN
      DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




















000
FXUS66 KSEW 302234
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST. IT WILL BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
PATTERN OVER THE PAC NW. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
EVIDENT ON WV VAPOR IMAGERY LIFTING NE THROUGH OREGON AND WILL CLIP
SE WA TONIGHT. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS TRIGGERING CONVECTION OVER THE
OREGON CASCADES MODELS INSIST THE SW FLOW WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL/N
CASCADES UNDER A STABLE REGIME AND ALSO SHUNT MOISTURE OFF TO THE E
OF OUR AREA. BECAUSE THE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED SO FAR INLAND OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES...VARYING DEGREES OF ONSHORE FLOW
WILL WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN WA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN
THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH REMAINS E OF THE CASCADES AND SHOULD
PROHIBIT ANY OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN FROM DEVELOPING W OF THE
CASCADES. REGARDLESS...UPPER HEIGHTS ABOVE 5880+ METERS WILL SUPPORT
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE RIDGE TEMPORARILY
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS COULD REACH THE UPPER 80S OR EVEN
CLOSE TO 90 IN A COUPLE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AROUND THE FAR S SOUND
AND INTERIOR. LATE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS WILL INTRUDE FURTHER
INLAND EACH MORNING BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
THE INCREASED MARINE INFLUENCE WILL HELP MODERATE DAYTIME HIGHS BY A
FEW DEGREES...BUT STILL REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE AIR MASS BECOMES WEAKLY UNSTABLE STARTING FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CASCADES AND OLYMPICS. MODELS TODAY HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
SCOPE OF POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS WRN WA AND SHOW THE
DRIER SW FLOW PATTERN DOMINATING THE OVERALL PATTERN.
HOWEVER...WEAKNESS AT 500 MB DEVELOPS JUST OFFSHORE STEERING SYSTEMS
NWD THROUGH THE INTERIOR PAC NW. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
LIFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER
STRUGGLING WITH THIS POTENTIAL THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IT SEEMS BEST TO
AT LEAST MENTION THE CHANCE FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF INTO B.C. ON
SUNDAY. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL POP OVER THE NRN
CASCADES BUT THE AIR MASS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BEGIN TO
STABILIZE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON A PERIOD OF RIDGING MONDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WARM AND DRY
WEATHER PATTERN WITH LESS MORNING CLOUDS. BY MID WEEK SOME MODELS
START TO SHOW STRONGER WESTERLY OR SW FLOW ALOFT OVER WRN WA WITH
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THIS IS STILL PROBABLY A DRY PATTERN BUT
COULD PRODUCE RENEWED MARINE CLOUDS AND BACKING OFF OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE 80S EARLY TO MID WEEK MAY STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE UPPER 70S...OR NEAR AVERAGE...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...A LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER NEVADA WITH
TROUGHING CENTERED ALONG 145W. THIS WILL GIVE LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG 130W
COMBINED WITH THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES
WILL GIVE LIGHT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER TONIGHT THAN IT WAS TUESDAY NIGHT.

WHILE PATCHES OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS REMAIN IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA THIS AFTERNOON...MOISTURE HAS EVAPORATED OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG AND STRATUS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE CHEHALIS GAP AND STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT GOOD VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. ALBRECHT

KSEA...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
8-11 KT WILL BECOME NE 5-7 KT AFTER 04Z THEN WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COMBINED WITH
THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 130W HAS WEAKENED A BIT TODAY...SO EXPECT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. DESTRUCTION
ISLAND IS BLOWING AROUND 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NW...BUT THAT
SITE IS ELEVATED AND THE AIR MASS IS QUITE STABLE...SO THE MOMENTUM
IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE SEA SURFACE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL ZONES AND THROUGH THE STRAIT LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE NWLY FLOW MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE
COASTAL ZONES ON FRIDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF GALE
CONDITIONS AROUND THE CENTRAL STRAIT FRIDAY EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS.
ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN
      DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

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WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




















000
FXUS66 KSEW 302234
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST. IT WILL BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
PATTERN OVER THE PAC NW. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
EVIDENT ON WV VAPOR IMAGERY LIFTING NE THROUGH OREGON AND WILL CLIP
SE WA TONIGHT. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS TRIGGERING CONVECTION OVER THE
OREGON CASCADES MODELS INSIST THE SW FLOW WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL/N
CASCADES UNDER A STABLE REGIME AND ALSO SHUNT MOISTURE OFF TO THE E
OF OUR AREA. BECAUSE THE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED SO FAR INLAND OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES...VARYING DEGREES OF ONSHORE FLOW
WILL WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN WA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN
THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH REMAINS E OF THE CASCADES AND SHOULD
PROHIBIT ANY OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN FROM DEVELOPING W OF THE
CASCADES. REGARDLESS...UPPER HEIGHTS ABOVE 5880+ METERS WILL SUPPORT
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE RIDGE TEMPORARILY
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS COULD REACH THE UPPER 80S OR EVEN
CLOSE TO 90 IN A COUPLE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AROUND THE FAR S SOUND
AND INTERIOR. LATE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS WILL INTRUDE FURTHER
INLAND EACH MORNING BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
THE INCREASED MARINE INFLUENCE WILL HELP MODERATE DAYTIME HIGHS BY A
FEW DEGREES...BUT STILL REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE AIR MASS BECOMES WEAKLY UNSTABLE STARTING FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CASCADES AND OLYMPICS. MODELS TODAY HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
SCOPE OF POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS WRN WA AND SHOW THE
DRIER SW FLOW PATTERN DOMINATING THE OVERALL PATTERN.
HOWEVER...WEAKNESS AT 500 MB DEVELOPS JUST OFFSHORE STEERING SYSTEMS
NWD THROUGH THE INTERIOR PAC NW. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
LIFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER
STRUGGLING WITH THIS POTENTIAL THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IT SEEMS BEST TO
AT LEAST MENTION THE CHANCE FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF INTO B.C. ON
SUNDAY. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL POP OVER THE NRN
CASCADES BUT THE AIR MASS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BEGIN TO
STABILIZE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON A PERIOD OF RIDGING MONDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WARM AND DRY
WEATHER PATTERN WITH LESS MORNING CLOUDS. BY MID WEEK SOME MODELS
START TO SHOW STRONGER WESTERLY OR SW FLOW ALOFT OVER WRN WA WITH
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THIS IS STILL PROBABLY A DRY PATTERN BUT
COULD PRODUCE RENEWED MARINE CLOUDS AND BACKING OFF OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE 80S EARLY TO MID WEEK MAY STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE UPPER 70S...OR NEAR AVERAGE...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...A LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER NEVADA WITH
TROUGHING CENTERED ALONG 145W. THIS WILL GIVE LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG 130W
COMBINED WITH THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES
WILL GIVE LIGHT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER TONIGHT THAN IT WAS TUESDAY NIGHT.

WHILE PATCHES OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS REMAIN IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA THIS AFTERNOON...MOISTURE HAS EVAPORATED OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG AND STRATUS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE CHEHALIS GAP AND STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT GOOD VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. ALBRECHT

KSEA...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
8-11 KT WILL BECOME NE 5-7 KT AFTER 04Z THEN WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COMBINED WITH
THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 130W HAS WEAKENED A BIT TODAY...SO EXPECT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. DESTRUCTION
ISLAND IS BLOWING AROUND 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NW...BUT THAT
SITE IS ELEVATED AND THE AIR MASS IS QUITE STABLE...SO THE MOMENTUM
IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE SEA SURFACE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL ZONES AND THROUGH THE STRAIT LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE NWLY FLOW MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE
COASTAL ZONES ON FRIDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF GALE
CONDITIONS AROUND THE CENTRAL STRAIT FRIDAY EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS.
ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN
      DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




















000
FXUS66 KSEW 302234
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST. IT WILL BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
PATTERN OVER THE PAC NW. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
EVIDENT ON WV VAPOR IMAGERY LIFTING NE THROUGH OREGON AND WILL CLIP
SE WA TONIGHT. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS TRIGGERING CONVECTION OVER THE
OREGON CASCADES MODELS INSIST THE SW FLOW WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL/N
CASCADES UNDER A STABLE REGIME AND ALSO SHUNT MOISTURE OFF TO THE E
OF OUR AREA. BECAUSE THE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED SO FAR INLAND OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES...VARYING DEGREES OF ONSHORE FLOW
WILL WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN WA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN
THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH REMAINS E OF THE CASCADES AND SHOULD
PROHIBIT ANY OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN FROM DEVELOPING W OF THE
CASCADES. REGARDLESS...UPPER HEIGHTS ABOVE 5880+ METERS WILL SUPPORT
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE RIDGE TEMPORARILY
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS COULD REACH THE UPPER 80S OR EVEN
CLOSE TO 90 IN A COUPLE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AROUND THE FAR S SOUND
AND INTERIOR. LATE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS WILL INTRUDE FURTHER
INLAND EACH MORNING BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
THE INCREASED MARINE INFLUENCE WILL HELP MODERATE DAYTIME HIGHS BY A
FEW DEGREES...BUT STILL REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE AIR MASS BECOMES WEAKLY UNSTABLE STARTING FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CASCADES AND OLYMPICS. MODELS TODAY HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
SCOPE OF POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS WRN WA AND SHOW THE
DRIER SW FLOW PATTERN DOMINATING THE OVERALL PATTERN.
HOWEVER...WEAKNESS AT 500 MB DEVELOPS JUST OFFSHORE STEERING SYSTEMS
NWD THROUGH THE INTERIOR PAC NW. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
LIFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER
STRUGGLING WITH THIS POTENTIAL THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IT SEEMS BEST TO
AT LEAST MENTION THE CHANCE FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF INTO B.C. ON
SUNDAY. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL POP OVER THE NRN
CASCADES BUT THE AIR MASS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BEGIN TO
STABILIZE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON A PERIOD OF RIDGING MONDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WARM AND DRY
WEATHER PATTERN WITH LESS MORNING CLOUDS. BY MID WEEK SOME MODELS
START TO SHOW STRONGER WESTERLY OR SW FLOW ALOFT OVER WRN WA WITH
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THIS IS STILL PROBABLY A DRY PATTERN BUT
COULD PRODUCE RENEWED MARINE CLOUDS AND BACKING OFF OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE 80S EARLY TO MID WEEK MAY STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE UPPER 70S...OR NEAR AVERAGE...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...A LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER NEVADA WITH
TROUGHING CENTERED ALONG 145W. THIS WILL GIVE LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG 130W
COMBINED WITH THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES
WILL GIVE LIGHT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER TONIGHT THAN IT WAS TUESDAY NIGHT.

WHILE PATCHES OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS REMAIN IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA THIS AFTERNOON...MOISTURE HAS EVAPORATED OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG AND STRATUS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE CHEHALIS GAP AND STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT GOOD VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. ALBRECHT

KSEA...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
8-11 KT WILL BECOME NE 5-7 KT AFTER 04Z THEN WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COMBINED WITH
THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 130W HAS WEAKENED A BIT TODAY...SO EXPECT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. DESTRUCTION
ISLAND IS BLOWING AROUND 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NW...BUT THAT
SITE IS ELEVATED AND THE AIR MASS IS QUITE STABLE...SO THE MOMENTUM
IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE SEA SURFACE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL ZONES AND THROUGH THE STRAIT LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE NWLY FLOW MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE
COASTAL ZONES ON FRIDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS BECOME MORE
WESTERLY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF GALE
CONDITIONS AROUND THE CENTRAL STRAIT FRIDAY EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS.
ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN
      DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

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000
FXUS66 KPQR 302150
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
250 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN
REMAINS OUR MOST DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INLAND. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY ERODE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING MORE ONSHORE FLOW AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEAN TIME
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO GUIDE WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTO OUR AREA FOR OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE CASCADES.
ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE SHOULD PROMOTE ANOTHER DAY OF ENHANCED CASCADE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MORE OR LESS A PERSISTENCE
PATTERN THIS WEEK OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY SMALL VARIANCES
FROM DAY TO DAY. THE LARGE WEATHER PICTURE CONTINUES TO INCLUDE AN
EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...GREAT BASIN...
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTS IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THESE TWO FEATURES HAVE BEEN CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO VARY FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY AT TIMES...DEPENDING ON
WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA UPPER LOW. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE HAS KEPT THE
MARINE LAYER SHALLOW...WITH ALL BUT IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WARMING
UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS PRESENTLY BETWEEN UPPER DISTURBANCES... WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITING THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE LIKELY WHY
CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN IN THE CASCADES.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY...AS A WELL DEFINED VORTMAX IS
GAINING STRENGTH OFF THE CA COAST NEAR 35N/135W. MEANWHILE REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM EX-HURRICANE HERNAN IS LIFTING NORTH INTO CALIFORNIA.
THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD COMBINE FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
FOR THE CASCADES EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STARTING IN NORTHERN CA
THEN LIFTING THROUGH OREGON THU...THEN INTO WA FRI.

PATTERN RECOGNITION-WISE IT APPEARS LIKELY AT LEAST A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN OUR CASCADES ZONES THURSDAY. HOWEVER
LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...BOTH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE RATHER
MARGINAL. THAT SAID...MODIFYING NAM OR GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS TO REFLECT
THE FORECASTED TEMPS IN THE CASCADE CREST YIELDS QUITE A BIT OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...UP TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE OR MORE. OVERALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST FORECAST SOUTH OF MT
JEFFERSON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE EXTENDING INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF LANE
COUNTY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER EXTENDS NORTH INTO THE WA CASCADES
FRI. WITH FLOW ALOFT MAINLY S-SW...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THUNDER WILL
DRIFT WEST OF THE CASCADES. A BAGGY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER
THE PAC NW INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE ERODES TO OUR EAST.
THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT LITTLE SENSIBLE CHANGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH
TEMPS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHERE NEAR 90 DEGREES FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS
WHILE COASTAL AREAS ARE SEASONABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S. SLIGHTLY DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW TEMPORARILY CLEARED THE
STRATUS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY...BUT SUSPECT IT WILL COME BACK
BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE THU NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING NOR INLAND
INTRUSION OF THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY ALLOW A GREATER
WESTERLY/ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...PERHAPS COOLING INLAND AREAS
BY A FEW DEGREES AND DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL. AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES A
BIT STRONGER...EXPECT THE THUNDER RISK TO DECREASE ON OUR SIDE OF THE
CASCADES. ALSO THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN A LITTLE...PUSHING A
BIT FURTHER INLAND AS THE THERMAL LOW OVER THE MID-COLUMBIA BECOMES
MORE DOMINANT AND INCREASES THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT/FLOW. NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENTS ON THE HORIZON GOING WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY
KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TOWARDS 09Z TO 12Z
THURSDAY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP UP AND DOWN THE COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN
12Z AND 15Z THURSDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND THERMAL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AT TIMES. THE GUSTIEST WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...BEFORE THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWARD...AND
PERHAPS KEEPS SMALL CRAFT WINDS FROM MATERIALIZING ACROSS ALL OF
OUR WATERS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
OTHERWISE.

CONTINUED THE COMBINED SEAS WORDING IN THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
DUE TO THE WAVES BEING PRIMARILY A MIXTURE OF WIND WAVE AND FRESH
SWELL. IN GENERAL...EXPECT SEAS TO BE CHOPPY WITH HEIGHTS
FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 302150
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
250 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN
REMAINS OUR MOST DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INLAND. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY ERODE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING MORE ONSHORE FLOW AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEAN TIME
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO GUIDE WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTO OUR AREA FOR OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE CASCADES.
ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE SHOULD PROMOTE ANOTHER DAY OF ENHANCED CASCADE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MORE OR LESS A PERSISTENCE
PATTERN THIS WEEK OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY SMALL VARIANCES
FROM DAY TO DAY. THE LARGE WEATHER PICTURE CONTINUES TO INCLUDE AN
EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...GREAT BASIN...
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTS IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THESE TWO FEATURES HAVE BEEN CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO VARY FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY AT TIMES...DEPENDING ON
WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA UPPER LOW. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE HAS KEPT THE
MARINE LAYER SHALLOW...WITH ALL BUT IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WARMING
UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS PRESENTLY BETWEEN UPPER DISTURBANCES... WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITING THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE LIKELY WHY
CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN IN THE CASCADES.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY...AS A WELL DEFINED VORTMAX IS
GAINING STRENGTH OFF THE CA COAST NEAR 35N/135W. MEANWHILE REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM EX-HURRICANE HERNAN IS LIFTING NORTH INTO CALIFORNIA.
THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD COMBINE FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
FOR THE CASCADES EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STARTING IN NORTHERN CA
THEN LIFTING THROUGH OREGON THU...THEN INTO WA FRI.

PATTERN RECOGNITION-WISE IT APPEARS LIKELY AT LEAST A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN OUR CASCADES ZONES THURSDAY. HOWEVER
LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...BOTH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE RATHER
MARGINAL. THAT SAID...MODIFYING NAM OR GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS TO REFLECT
THE FORECASTED TEMPS IN THE CASCADE CREST YIELDS QUITE A BIT OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...UP TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE OR MORE. OVERALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST FORECAST SOUTH OF MT
JEFFERSON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE EXTENDING INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF LANE
COUNTY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER EXTENDS NORTH INTO THE WA CASCADES
FRI. WITH FLOW ALOFT MAINLY S-SW...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THUNDER WILL
DRIFT WEST OF THE CASCADES. A BAGGY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER
THE PAC NW INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE ERODES TO OUR EAST.
THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CASCADE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT LITTLE SENSIBLE CHANGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH
TEMPS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHERE NEAR 90 DEGREES FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS
WHILE COASTAL AREAS ARE SEASONABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S. SLIGHTLY DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW TEMPORARILY CLEARED THE
STRATUS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY...BUT SUSPECT IT WILL COME BACK
BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE THU NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING NOR INLAND
INTRUSION OF THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY ALLOW A GREATER
WESTERLY/ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...PERHAPS COOLING INLAND AREAS
BY A FEW DEGREES AND DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL. AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES A
BIT STRONGER...EXPECT THE THUNDER RISK TO DECREASE ON OUR SIDE OF THE
CASCADES. ALSO THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN A LITTLE...PUSHING A
BIT FURTHER INLAND AS THE THERMAL LOW OVER THE MID-COLUMBIA BECOMES
MORE DOMINANT AND INCREASES THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT/FLOW. NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENTS ON THE HORIZON GOING WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY
KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TOWARDS 09Z TO 12Z
THURSDAY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP UP AND DOWN THE COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN
12Z AND 15Z THURSDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND THERMAL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AT TIMES. THE GUSTIEST WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...BEFORE THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWARD...AND
PERHAPS KEEPS SMALL CRAFT WINDS FROM MATERIALIZING ACROSS ALL OF
OUR WATERS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
OTHERWISE.

CONTINUED THE COMBINED SEAS WORDING IN THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
DUE TO THE WAVES BEING PRIMARILY A MIXTURE OF WIND WAVE AND FRESH
SWELL. IN GENERAL...EXPECT SEAS TO BE CHOPPY WITH HEIGHTS
FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 302128
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
228 PM PDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be partly cloudy and hot with isolated thunderstorms
through the end of the week and into the weekend. No significant
relief from the hot weather is forecast through the seven-day
forecast period. However, only a few spots may reach the 100-degree
mark. Isolated thunderstorms the next several days are not
expected to be strong or severe but could bring localized heavy
downpours.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Tonight through Saturday night. The forecast area will be
located on the backside of an upper level ridge through Saturday
and will be influenced by a weak sw flow aloft. A few disturbances
in the flow may increase moisture and lift to a presently unstable
air mass...resulting in isolated thunderstorms. Due to a weak mid-level
shear and marginal instability...most storms will be garden
variety and diurnally driven. The main concern will be the slow
storm movement bringing heavy downpours. Today there have been a
few showers sitting near the northeast mountains with storm
movement less than 10 mph. Forecasters will need to keep a close
eye on storms that may develop near burn scars in steep terrain.
Thunderstorms will mainly be confined to central and northern
Idaho, but a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms was added
to all zones on Saturday. All models hint at a shortwave off the
coast edging inland that will steepen lapse rates across eastern
Washington on Saturday. Increasing clouds will keep temperatures
from climbing significantly during the afternoon Thurs-Sat, but the
heat advisory for the Lewiston area will be extended through
Thursday evening as this area will have overnight lows around 70
and afternoon temperatures in the 100-105 degree range.

Sunday through Wednesday...No major changes are expected in the
weather pattern during the remainder of the period. The Pacific NW
will be influenced by a broad upper level ridge and an inverted
surface thermal trough. Afternoon temperatures will remain in the
mid 80s to mid 90s. A slight chance of thunderstorms is forecast
for the afternoon and evening on Sunday and Monday...as weak
impulses pass through the region. Of course, any threat of
thunderstorms brings fire weather concerns but there does not
appear to be any organized waves to increase shear and enhance
lift for significant lightning strikes. moisture is limited as
well. Monsoonal moisture advection will primarily be directed
east of the Rockies. I`ve kept thunderstorms out of the forecast
for most of the area Tuesday and Wednesday as the flow is more
westerly. Models are in general agreement so confidence in the
continued hot temperatures is high...but there is uncertainty in
the thunderstorm forecast...particularly where thunderstorms will
be located Sunday and Monday. Wister





&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Scattered mid/high level clouds will continue to
overspread most sites through the period. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms may develop across the far northern Cascades and NE
Blue Mts into the Idaho panhandle this afternoon but confidence is
very low that convection will affect any TAF site. MCW




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  96  66  93  65  92 /  10   0   0  10  10  20
Coeur d`Alene  62  94  59  92  62  90 /  10  10  10  10  20  20
Pullman        56  95  61  91  57  91 /  10  10  10  20  20  20
Lewiston       70 102  69  97  68  97 /  10  10  10  30  30  20
Colville       57 101  57  95  59  95 /  10   0  10  10  10  20
Sandpoint      54  92  52  89  56  87 /  10   0  10  10  20  30
Kellogg        61  93  57  90  62  87 /  20  10  10  20  20  20
Moses Lake     64 100  65  97  64  97 /   0   0  10  10  10  20
Wenatchee      71 100  67  96  71  97 /   0   0  10  10  10  20
Omak           65 100  63  98  68  97 /   0   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Thursday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Moses Lake Area-
     Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-
     Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$










000
FXUS66 KOTX 302128
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
228 PM PDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be partly cloudy and hot with isolated thunderstorms
through the end of the week and into the weekend. No significant
relief from the hot weather is forecast through the seven-day
forecast period. However, only a few spots may reach the 100-degree
mark. Isolated thunderstorms the next several days are not
expected to be strong or severe but could bring localized heavy
downpours.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Tonight through Saturday night. The forecast area will be
located on the backside of an upper level ridge through Saturday
and will be influenced by a weak sw flow aloft. A few disturbances
in the flow may increase moisture and lift to a presently unstable
air mass...resulting in isolated thunderstorms. Due to a weak mid-level
shear and marginal instability...most storms will be garden
variety and diurnally driven. The main concern will be the slow
storm movement bringing heavy downpours. Today there have been a
few showers sitting near the northeast mountains with storm
movement less than 10 mph. Forecasters will need to keep a close
eye on storms that may develop near burn scars in steep terrain.
Thunderstorms will mainly be confined to central and northern
Idaho, but a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms was added
to all zones on Saturday. All models hint at a shortwave off the
coast edging inland that will steepen lapse rates across eastern
Washington on Saturday. Increasing clouds will keep temperatures
from climbing significantly during the afternoon Thurs-Sat, but the
heat advisory for the Lewiston area will be extended through
Thursday evening as this area will have overnight lows around 70
and afternoon temperatures in the 100-105 degree range.

Sunday through Wednesday...No major changes are expected in the
weather pattern during the remainder of the period. The Pacific NW
will be influenced by a broad upper level ridge and an inverted
surface thermal trough. Afternoon temperatures will remain in the
mid 80s to mid 90s. A slight chance of thunderstorms is forecast
for the afternoon and evening on Sunday and Monday...as weak
impulses pass through the region. Of course, any threat of
thunderstorms brings fire weather concerns but there does not
appear to be any organized waves to increase shear and enhance
lift for significant lightning strikes. moisture is limited as
well. Monsoonal moisture advection will primarily be directed
east of the Rockies. I`ve kept thunderstorms out of the forecast
for most of the area Tuesday and Wednesday as the flow is more
westerly. Models are in general agreement so confidence in the
continued hot temperatures is high...but there is uncertainty in
the thunderstorm forecast...particularly where thunderstorms will
be located Sunday and Monday. Wister





&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Scattered mid/high level clouds will continue to
overspread most sites through the period. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms may develop across the far northern Cascades and NE
Blue Mts into the Idaho panhandle this afternoon but confidence is
very low that convection will affect any TAF site. MCW




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  96  66  93  65  92 /  10   0   0  10  10  20
Coeur d`Alene  62  94  59  92  62  90 /  10  10  10  10  20  20
Pullman        56  95  61  91  57  91 /  10  10  10  20  20  20
Lewiston       70 102  69  97  68  97 /  10  10  10  30  30  20
Colville       57 101  57  95  59  95 /  10   0  10  10  10  20
Sandpoint      54  92  52  89  56  87 /  10   0  10  10  20  30
Kellogg        61  93  57  90  62  87 /  20  10  10  20  20  20
Moses Lake     64 100  65  97  64  97 /   0   0  10  10  10  20
Wenatchee      71 100  67  96  71  97 /   0   0  10  10  10  20
Omak           65 100  63  98  68  97 /   0   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Thursday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Moses Lake Area-
     Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-
     Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$









000
FXUS66 KPQR 301658
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
957 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
OFF THE WEST COAST OF CANADA LEAVING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES BRINGS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY LANE COUNTY.
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.UPDATE...VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE
THIS MORNING. TODAY STILL APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVELY DOWN DAY IN
TERMS OF CASCADE CONVECTION...AT LEAST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND WHAT
IS EXPECTED FOR THU/THU NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BATCH OF
MOISTURE SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR OFF THE OREGON COAST IS MAINLY
ABOVE 400 MB...SO EXPECT MAINLY CIRRUS FROM THAT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
TODAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS APPEAR TO BE THE UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 140W AND THE REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN BEGINNING TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO CALIFORNIA. THESE TWO PLAYERS WILL LIKELY TEAM UP FOR
GREATER COVERAGE OF CASCADE TSTMS THU...AND POSSIBLY A BIT FURTHER
WEST THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER FLOW ALOFT NEVER REALLY TURNS EAST OF
SOUTH...SO AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS DOUBTFUL THIS CONVECTION WOULD
AFFECT THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. TEMPS REMAIN 5-10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL
INLAND WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. COAST WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ON WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW AND AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 305 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014/

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM IDAHO TO ARIZONA WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE B.C. COAST. THE
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  AS A RESULT
VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPS
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE COASTAL
AREAS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH THE STRONG INFLUENCE OF THE MARINE
LAYER.

THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE OREGON CASCADES WILL VARY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OCCUR OVER.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS MOISTURE IS LACKING AND
INSTABILITY BELOW 500 MB IS LOW. THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES APPEAR TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS VORT
MAX CLIPS THE AREA.  BETTER CHANCES FOR THU/THU NIGHT AS THE REMNANT
MOISTURE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN LIFT NORTH AND POSSIBLY
COMBINE WITH ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. NAM VERTICAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN MORE INLINE WITH OBSERVATIONS
SO WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS HIGH MOISTURE VALUES. THE HIGH OREGON
CASCADES ARE THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO GET THE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS FURTHER WEST COULD BE AFFECTED IF
THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL IN SOME SE FLOW ALOFT.
FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE CREST OF THE OREGON
CASCADES THU/THU NIGHT.  SIMILAR THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
OREGON CASCADES RETURN FRI AFTERNOON.  WEAGLE/MH

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS ON THE WEST
SIDE OF  AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE UP THIS RIDGE AND BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE WILL STAY
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL KEEP HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNTIL
THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EITHER BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
-MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...IFR STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND MVFR STRATUS AROUND
THE PORTLAND METRO AREA THIS MORNING WILL GENERALLY GIVE WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW WILL GENERALLY KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE IFR CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
TOWARDS 09Z TO 12Z THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO
PANNING OUT IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 17Z AND 18Z THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND THERMAL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AT TIMES. THE GUSTIEST WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...BEFORE THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH...AND
PERHAPS KEEPS SMALL CRAFT WINDS FROM MATERIALIZING ACROSS ALL OF
OUR WATERS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.

CONTINUED THE COMBINED SEAS WORDING IN THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
DUE TO THE WAVES BEING PRIMARILY A MIXTURE OF WIND WAVE AND FRESH
SWELL. IN GENERAL...EXPECT SEAS TO BE FAIRLY CHOPPY WITH HEIGHTS
FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 301658
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
957 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
OFF THE WEST COAST OF CANADA LEAVING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES BRINGS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY LANE COUNTY.
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.UPDATE...VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE
THIS MORNING. TODAY STILL APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVELY DOWN DAY IN
TERMS OF CASCADE CONVECTION...AT LEAST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND WHAT
IS EXPECTED FOR THU/THU NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BATCH OF
MOISTURE SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR OFF THE OREGON COAST IS MAINLY
ABOVE 400 MB...SO EXPECT MAINLY CIRRUS FROM THAT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
TODAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS APPEAR TO BE THE UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 140W AND THE REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN BEGINNING TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO CALIFORNIA. THESE TWO PLAYERS WILL LIKELY TEAM UP FOR
GREATER COVERAGE OF CASCADE TSTMS THU...AND POSSIBLY A BIT FURTHER
WEST THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER FLOW ALOFT NEVER REALLY TURNS EAST OF
SOUTH...SO AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS DOUBTFUL THIS CONVECTION WOULD
AFFECT THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. TEMPS REMAIN 5-10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL
INLAND WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. COAST WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ON WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW AND AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 305 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014/

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM IDAHO TO ARIZONA WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE B.C. COAST. THE
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  AS A RESULT
VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPS
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE COASTAL
AREAS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH THE STRONG INFLUENCE OF THE MARINE
LAYER.

THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE OREGON CASCADES WILL VARY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OCCUR OVER.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS MOISTURE IS LACKING AND
INSTABILITY BELOW 500 MB IS LOW. THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES APPEAR TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS VORT
MAX CLIPS THE AREA.  BETTER CHANCES FOR THU/THU NIGHT AS THE REMNANT
MOISTURE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN LIFT NORTH AND POSSIBLY
COMBINE WITH ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. NAM VERTICAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN MORE INLINE WITH OBSERVATIONS
SO WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS HIGH MOISTURE VALUES. THE HIGH OREGON
CASCADES ARE THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO GET THE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS FURTHER WEST COULD BE AFFECTED IF
THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL IN SOME SE FLOW ALOFT.
FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE CREST OF THE OREGON
CASCADES THU/THU NIGHT.  SIMILAR THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
OREGON CASCADES RETURN FRI AFTERNOON.  WEAGLE/MH

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS ON THE WEST
SIDE OF  AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE UP THIS RIDGE AND BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE WILL STAY
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL KEEP HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNTIL
THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EITHER BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
-MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...IFR STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND MVFR STRATUS AROUND
THE PORTLAND METRO AREA THIS MORNING WILL GENERALLY GIVE WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW WILL GENERALLY KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE IFR CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
TOWARDS 09Z TO 12Z THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO
PANNING OUT IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 17Z AND 18Z THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND THERMAL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AT TIMES. THE GUSTIEST WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...BEFORE THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH...AND
PERHAPS KEEPS SMALL CRAFT WINDS FROM MATERIALIZING ACROSS ALL OF
OUR WATERS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.

CONTINUED THE COMBINED SEAS WORDING IN THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
DUE TO THE WAVES BEING PRIMARILY A MIXTURE OF WIND WAVE AND FRESH
SWELL. IN GENERAL...EXPECT SEAS TO BE FAIRLY CHOPPY WITH HEIGHTS
FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KSEW 301622
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING CLOUD BUILD UPS
OVER THE CASCADES BY FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHALLOW MARINE STRATUS LEAKED A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND
THAN EXPECTED REACHING INTO THE S/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF PUGET SOUND TO
ABOUT S SEATTLE. VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES STRATUS IN THE
STRAIT AND ALONG THE COAST ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER AIR IN NW FLOW HAS
ERODED SOME CLOUD ALONG THE COAST. THE STATUS IS QUITE SHALLOW AND
WILL BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING OVER THE INTERIOR AND PARTIALLY BURN
OFF ALONG THE COAST/STRAIT. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORT WAVE NEAR
THE NRN CA COAST WHICH WILL MOVE NE CROSSING MAINLY TO THE S OR WRN
WA LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHTING STRIKES ON
THE NRN CA COAST AND WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW FAR N THE CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALONG THE OREGON CASCADES PROPAGATES NWD TOWARD THE
CA/OREGON BORDER BY THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD HAVE NO AFFECT ON THE
WEATHER AROUND PUGET SOUND WITH HIGHS TODAY LIKELY TO REACH THE LOW
TO MID 80S.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHORT WAVE RIDING THURSDAY. UPPER
HEIGHTS BUILD TOWARD 5860-5870M WITH A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH OVER
INTERIOR WRN WA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT SURFACE FLOW EXCPECT
SEA BREEZE AFFECTS ALONG THE COASTLINES IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH 850 MB WARMING TO +17C...EXPECT
MID TO UPPER 80S PRETTY COMMON AROUND PUGET SOUND. A 90 IS NO OUT OF
THE QUESTION AROUND THE SW INTERIOR TOWARD TACOMA. WILL PROBABLY
BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE.

THE COMBINATION OF WARM AIR OVER THE INTERIOR AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY INDUCE A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER MARINE PUSH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. MAY NEED TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVERAGE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGHOUT PUGET SOUND ALTHOUGH IT
WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY BEING AS SHALLOW AS EXPECTED. CURRENT FORECAST
TEMPS LOOK GOOD IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY.
AN EVEN DEEPER MARINE LAYER SATURDAY COULD CAUSE CLOUDS TO HANG
AROUND LONGER BUT STILL EXPECT AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.

OUTSIDE THE MARINE PUSH...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE CHALLENGING BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME MODELS DEVELOP AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW. A SHORT WAVE LIFTING NWD WITH A PAST
TROPICAL CONNECTION WILL BE ENTRAINED NWD BY THE TROUGH.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/CANADIAN BOTH PUSH CONVECTION OFF TO THE E SIDE
BY THE TIME IT REACH ABOUT MOUNT RAINIER. THE NAN-12/WRFGFS/AND
GFS40 HANDLE THIS SYSTEM A LITTLE DIFFERENTLY. THEY HAVE A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH OFFSHORE ALLOWING MOISTURE ADVECTION FURTHER
NWD ALONG THE WA CASCADES. WHILE MOST THE THUNDERSTORM ACTION WOULD
STILL BE ON THE EASTSIDE...LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ALONG AND JUST W OF THE CREST IN THIS SCENARIO. SO THE SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS STILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN AS TO THE
TIMING...COVERAGE...AND CHANCES OF ANY CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS.
WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST AS IS THIS MORNING AND HOPE FOR BETTER MODEL
CONSENSUS AS ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA ARRIVES. THE FORECAST CURRENTLY
INDICATES SOME CLOUD BUILD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MERCER

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ALL OF THE
EXTENDED MODELS SHOWING A VERY WEAK FEATURE MOVING UP OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON ON SATURDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
THIS FEATURE COULD CAUSE WOULD BE AN INCREASE IN THE CONVECTION OVER
THE CASCADES. THE GFS SHOWS A LITTLE SOMETHING OVER THE NORTH
CASCADES ON SATURDAY WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE ACTIVITY
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST JUST SHOWS AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
IN THE MODELS THIS IS A GOOD WAY TO GO AT THIS POINT. SOME MORE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL ON SUNDAY WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN KEEPING
THE WEAK FEATURE IN THE AREA WHICH WOULD KEEP A CHANCE OF CONVECTION
IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE ECMWF HAS THE FEATURE FURTHER EAST. GFS
MAINTAINS SOME WEAK TROUGHINESS INTO MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF TURNS
THE FLOW ALOFT WESTERLY. CURRENT FORECAST JUST HAS INCREASING CLOUD
COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL STAY WITH THIS IDEA
FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LOWLANDS. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE A
LITTLE LOWER...IN THE LOWER 580 DMS AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE A
LITTLE STRONGER FOR A CHANCE OF THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS GETTING
FURTHER INLAND BUT THE ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE STRATUS FROM BURNING BACK TO THE COAST EACH DAY. 00Z RUNS
MAX TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER VERSUS THE RUNS
YESTERDAY MORNING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES LOOK FOR THE MAX TEMPS TO
BE KNOCKED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND. EVEN WITH THE
COOLER MAX TEMPERATURES HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE NEAR TO A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE INTERIOR...MID 70S TO MID 80S...THE
COAST AND STRAIT WILL REMAIN NEAR 70 FOR HIGHS EACH DAY. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...A LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER NEVADA WITH
TROUGHING CENTERED ALONG 145W. THIS WILL GIVE LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG 130W COMBINED WITH
THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE LIGHT
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE
WEAKER TONIGHT THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING.

FOG AND LOW STRATUS CAN BE SEEN IN THE CHEHALIS GAP AND THE SOUTH
INTERIOR UP TO JUST SOUTH OF THE SEATAC AIRPORT. ANOTHER STRIP OF
LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS SEEN ON THE NORTH COAST AND THROUGH THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TO THE WEST COAST OF WHIDBEY ISLAND. LOW IFR
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURING WHERE THE STRATUS AND FOG IS LOCATED WHILE
MOST AREAS SEE GOOD VFR CONDITIONS. THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY
BURN OFF BY ABOUT 19Z ACROSS THE REGION.

A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN
OREGON WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON
THEN INTO NE WASHINGTON. THIS WEAK FEATURE WILL LIKELY GIVE SOME
CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER THE CASCADES TODAY. ELSEWHERE EXPECT
CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEHIND THIS
WEAK FEATURE ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LESS ONSHORE FLOW
TONIGHT AND LESS EXTENSIVE FOG AND STRATUS IN THE INTERIOR LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WHEREVER FOG AND STRATUS DO OCCUR...YOU CAN
EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF LIFR CONDITIONS. ALBRECHT

KSEA...STRATUS AND FOG JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL WILL BURN OFF BY
18Z LEAVING CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH 6-9 KT AFTER
20Z WITH WINDS TURNING NE 4-7 KT AFTER 04Z. STRATUS OR FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL ON THURSDAY. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COMBINED WITH
THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 130W HAS WEAKENED A BIT TODAY...SO EXPECT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME INCREASE
IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED THU OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH GALE FORCE
IN NORMALLY WINDIER PORTIONS OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA FRIDAY
EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF OF JUAN DE
     FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

















000
FXUS66 KSEW 301622
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING CLOUD BUILD UPS
OVER THE CASCADES BY FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHALLOW MARINE STRATUS LEAKED A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND
THAN EXPECTED REACHING INTO THE S/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF PUGET SOUND TO
ABOUT S SEATTLE. VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES STRATUS IN THE
STRAIT AND ALONG THE COAST ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER AIR IN NW FLOW HAS
ERODED SOME CLOUD ALONG THE COAST. THE STATUS IS QUITE SHALLOW AND
WILL BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING OVER THE INTERIOR AND PARTIALLY BURN
OFF ALONG THE COAST/STRAIT. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORT WAVE NEAR
THE NRN CA COAST WHICH WILL MOVE NE CROSSING MAINLY TO THE S OR WRN
WA LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHTING STRIKES ON
THE NRN CA COAST AND WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW FAR N THE CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALONG THE OREGON CASCADES PROPAGATES NWD TOWARD THE
CA/OREGON BORDER BY THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD HAVE NO AFFECT ON THE
WEATHER AROUND PUGET SOUND WITH HIGHS TODAY LIKELY TO REACH THE LOW
TO MID 80S.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHORT WAVE RIDING THURSDAY. UPPER
HEIGHTS BUILD TOWARD 5860-5870M WITH A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH OVER
INTERIOR WRN WA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT SURFACE FLOW EXCPECT
SEA BREEZE AFFECTS ALONG THE COASTLINES IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH 850 MB WARMING TO +17C...EXPECT
MID TO UPPER 80S PRETTY COMMON AROUND PUGET SOUND. A 90 IS NO OUT OF
THE QUESTION AROUND THE SW INTERIOR TOWARD TACOMA. WILL PROBABLY
BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE.

THE COMBINATION OF WARM AIR OVER THE INTERIOR AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY INDUCE A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER MARINE PUSH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. MAY NEED TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVERAGE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGHOUT PUGET SOUND ALTHOUGH IT
WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY BEING AS SHALLOW AS EXPECTED. CURRENT FORECAST
TEMPS LOOK GOOD IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY.
AN EVEN DEEPER MARINE LAYER SATURDAY COULD CAUSE CLOUDS TO HANG
AROUND LONGER BUT STILL EXPECT AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.

OUTSIDE THE MARINE PUSH...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE CHALLENGING BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME MODELS DEVELOP AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW. A SHORT WAVE LIFTING NWD WITH A PAST
TROPICAL CONNECTION WILL BE ENTRAINED NWD BY THE TROUGH.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/CANADIAN BOTH PUSH CONVECTION OFF TO THE E SIDE
BY THE TIME IT REACH ABOUT MOUNT RAINIER. THE NAN-12/WRFGFS/AND
GFS40 HANDLE THIS SYSTEM A LITTLE DIFFERENTLY. THEY HAVE A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH OFFSHORE ALLOWING MOISTURE ADVECTION FURTHER
NWD ALONG THE WA CASCADES. WHILE MOST THE THUNDERSTORM ACTION WOULD
STILL BE ON THE EASTSIDE...LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ALONG AND JUST W OF THE CREST IN THIS SCENARIO. SO THE SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS STILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN AS TO THE
TIMING...COVERAGE...AND CHANCES OF ANY CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS.
WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST AS IS THIS MORNING AND HOPE FOR BETTER MODEL
CONSENSUS AS ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA ARRIVES. THE FORECAST CURRENTLY
INDICATES SOME CLOUD BUILD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MERCER

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ALL OF THE
EXTENDED MODELS SHOWING A VERY WEAK FEATURE MOVING UP OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON ON SATURDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
THIS FEATURE COULD CAUSE WOULD BE AN INCREASE IN THE CONVECTION OVER
THE CASCADES. THE GFS SHOWS A LITTLE SOMETHING OVER THE NORTH
CASCADES ON SATURDAY WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE ACTIVITY
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST JUST SHOWS AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
IN THE MODELS THIS IS A GOOD WAY TO GO AT THIS POINT. SOME MORE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL ON SUNDAY WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN KEEPING
THE WEAK FEATURE IN THE AREA WHICH WOULD KEEP A CHANCE OF CONVECTION
IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE ECMWF HAS THE FEATURE FURTHER EAST. GFS
MAINTAINS SOME WEAK TROUGHINESS INTO MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF TURNS
THE FLOW ALOFT WESTERLY. CURRENT FORECAST JUST HAS INCREASING CLOUD
COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL STAY WITH THIS IDEA
FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LOWLANDS. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE A
LITTLE LOWER...IN THE LOWER 580 DMS AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE A
LITTLE STRONGER FOR A CHANCE OF THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS GETTING
FURTHER INLAND BUT THE ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE STRATUS FROM BURNING BACK TO THE COAST EACH DAY. 00Z RUNS
MAX TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER VERSUS THE RUNS
YESTERDAY MORNING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES LOOK FOR THE MAX TEMPS TO
BE KNOCKED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND. EVEN WITH THE
COOLER MAX TEMPERATURES HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE NEAR TO A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE INTERIOR...MID 70S TO MID 80S...THE
COAST AND STRAIT WILL REMAIN NEAR 70 FOR HIGHS EACH DAY. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...A LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER NEVADA WITH
TROUGHING CENTERED ALONG 145W. THIS WILL GIVE LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG 130W COMBINED WITH
THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE LIGHT
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE
WEAKER TONIGHT THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING.

FOG AND LOW STRATUS CAN BE SEEN IN THE CHEHALIS GAP AND THE SOUTH
INTERIOR UP TO JUST SOUTH OF THE SEATAC AIRPORT. ANOTHER STRIP OF
LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS SEEN ON THE NORTH COAST AND THROUGH THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TO THE WEST COAST OF WHIDBEY ISLAND. LOW IFR
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURING WHERE THE STRATUS AND FOG IS LOCATED WHILE
MOST AREAS SEE GOOD VFR CONDITIONS. THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY
BURN OFF BY ABOUT 19Z ACROSS THE REGION.

A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN
OREGON WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON
THEN INTO NE WASHINGTON. THIS WEAK FEATURE WILL LIKELY GIVE SOME
CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER THE CASCADES TODAY. ELSEWHERE EXPECT
CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEHIND THIS
WEAK FEATURE ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LESS ONSHORE FLOW
TONIGHT AND LESS EXTENSIVE FOG AND STRATUS IN THE INTERIOR LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WHEREVER FOG AND STRATUS DO OCCUR...YOU CAN
EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF LIFR CONDITIONS. ALBRECHT

KSEA...STRATUS AND FOG JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL WILL BURN OFF BY
18Z LEAVING CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH 6-9 KT AFTER
20Z WITH WINDS TURNING NE 4-7 KT AFTER 04Z. STRATUS OR FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL ON THURSDAY. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COMBINED WITH
THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 130W HAS WEAKENED A BIT TODAY...SO EXPECT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME INCREASE
IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED THU OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH GALE FORCE
IN NORMALLY WINDIER PORTIONS OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA FRIDAY
EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF OF JUAN DE
     FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML


















000
FXUS66 KSEW 301618
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING CLOUD BUILD UPS
OVER THE CASCADES BY FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHALLOW MARINE STRATUS LEAKED A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND
THAN EXPECTED REACHING INTO THE S/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF PUGET SOUND TO
ABOUT S SEATTLE. VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES STRATUS IN THE
STRAIT AND ALONG THE COAST ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER AIR IN NW FLOW HAS
ERODED SOME CLOUD ALONG THE COAST. THE STATUS IS QUITE SHALLOW AND
WILL BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING OVER THE INTERIOR AND PARTIALLY BURN
OFF ALONG THE COAST/STRAIT. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORT WAVE NEAR
THE NRN CA COAST WHICH WILL MOVE NE CROSSING MAINLY TO THE S OR WRN
WA LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHTING STRIKES ON
THE NRN CA COAST AND WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW FAR N THE CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALONG THE OREGON CASCADES PROPAGATES NWD TOWARD THE
CA/OREGON BORDER BY THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD HAVE NO AFFECT ON THE
WEATHER AROUND PUGET SOUND WITH HIGHS TODAY LIKELY TO REACH THE LOW
TO MID 80S.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHORT WAVE RIDING THURSDAY. UPPER
HEIGHTS BUILD TOWARD 5860-5870M WITH A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH OVER
INTERIOR WRN WA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT SURFACE FLOW EXCPECT
SEA BREEZE AFFECTS ALONG THE COASTLINES IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH 850 MB WARMING TO +17C...EXPECT
MID TO UPPER 80S PRETTY COMMON AROUND PUGET SOUND. A 90 IS NO OUT OF
THE QUESTION AROUND THE SW INTERIOR TOWARD TACOMA. WILL PROBABLY
BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE.

THE COMBINATION OF WARM AIR OVER THE INTERIOR AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY INDUCE A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER MARINE PUSH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. MAY NEED TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVERAGE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGHOUT PUGET SOUND ALTHOUGH IT
WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY BEING AS SHALLOW AS EXPECTED. CURRENT FORECAST
TEMPS LOOK GOOD IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY.
AN EVEN DEEPER MARINE LAYER SATURDAY COULD CAUSE CLOUDS TO HANG
AROUND LONGER BUT STILL EXPECT AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.

OUTSIDE THE MARINE PUSH...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE CHALLENGING BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME MODELS DEVELOP AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW. A SHORT WAVE LIFTING NWD WITH A PAST
TROPICAL CONNECTION WILL BE ENTRAINED NWD BY THE TROUGH.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/CANADIAN BOTH PUSH CONVECTION OFF TO THE E SIDE
BY THE TIME IT REACH ABOUT MOUNT RAINIER. THE NAN-12/WRFGFS/AND
GFS40 HANDLE THIS SYSTEM A LITTLE DIFFERENTLY. THEY HAVE A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH OFFSHORE ALLOWING MOISTURE ADVECTION FURTHER
NWD ALONG THE WA CASCADES. WHILE MOST THE THUNDERSTORM ACTION WOULD
STILL BE ON THE EASTSIDE...LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ALONG AND JUST W OF THE CREST IN THIS SCENARIO. SO THE SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS STILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN AS TO THE
TIMING...COVERAGE...AND CHANCES OF ANY CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS.
WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST AS IS THIS MORNING AND HOPE FOR BETTER MODEL
CONSENSUS AS ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA ARRIVES. THE FORECAST CURRENTLY
INDICATES SOME CLOUD BUILD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MERCER

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ALL OF THE
EXTENDED MODELS SHOWING A VERY WEAK FEATURE MOVING UP OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON ON SATURDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
THIS FEATURE COULD CAUSE WOULD BE AN INCREASE IN THE CONVECTION OVER
THE CASCADES. THE GFS SHOWS A LITTLE SOMETHING OVER THE NORTH
CASCADES ON SATURDAY (PIC4) WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE
ACTIVITY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST JUST SHOWS AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS THIS IS A GOOD WAY TO GO AT THIS POINT.
SOME MORE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL ON SUNDAY WITH THE GFS
(PIC5)(PIC6) AND CANADIAN KEEPING THE WEAK FEATURE IN THE AREA WHICH
WOULD KEEP A CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE ECMWF HAS
THE FEATURE FURTHER EAST. GFS MAINTAINS SOME WEAK TROUGHINESS INTO
MONDAY (PIC7) WHILE THE ECMWF TURNS THE FLOW ALOFT WESTERLY. CURRENT
FORECAST JUST HAS INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON. WILL STAY WITH THIS IDEA FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LOWLANDS. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE A
LITTLE LOWER...IN THE LOWER 580 DMS AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE A
LITTLE STRONGER FOR A CHANCE OF THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS GETTING
FURTHER INLAND BUT THE ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE STRATUS FROM BURNING BACK TO THE COAST EACH DAY. 00Z RUNS
MAX TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER VERSUS THE RUNS
YESTERDAY MORNING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES LOOK FOR THE MAX TEMPS TO
BE KNOCKED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND. EVEN WITH THE
COOLER MAX TEMPERATURES HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE NEAR TO A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE INTERIOR...MID 70S TO MID 80S...THE
COAST AND STRAIT WILL REMAIN NEAR 70 FOR HIGHS EACH DAY. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...A LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER NEVADA WITH
TROUGHING CENTERED ALONG 145W. THIS WILL GIVE LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG 130W COMBINED WITH
THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE LIGHT
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE
WEAKER TONIGHT THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING.

FOG AND LOW STRATUS CAN BE SEEN IN THE CHEHALIS GAP AND THE SOUTH
INTERIOR UP TO JUST SOUTH OF THE SEATAC AIRPORT. ANOTHER STRIP OF
LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS SEEN ON THE NORTH COAST AND THROUGH THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TO THE WEST COAST OF WHIDBEY ISLAND. LOW IFR
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURING WHERE THE STRATUS AND FOG IS LOCATED WHILE
MOST AREAS SEE GOOD VFR CONDITIONS. THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY
BURN OFF BY ABOUT 19Z ACROSS THE REGION.

A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN
OREGON WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON
THEN INTO NE WASHINGTON. THIS WEAK FEATURE WILL LIKELY GIVE SOME
CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER THE CASCADES TODAY. ELSEWHERE EXPECT
CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEHIND THIS
WEAK FEATURE ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LESS ONSHORE FLOW
TONIGHT AND LESS EXTENSIVE FOG AND STRATUS IN THE INTERIOR LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WHEREVER FOG AND STRATUS DO OCCUR...YOU CAN
EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF LIFR CONDITIONS. ALBRECHT

KSEA...STRATUS AND FOG JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL WILL BURN OFF BY
18Z LEAVING CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH 6-9 KT AFTER
20Z WITH WINDS TURNING NE 4-7 KT AFTER 04Z. STRATUS OR FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL ON THURSDAY. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COMBINED WITH
THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 130W HAS WEAKENED A BIT TODAY...SO EXPECT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME INCREASE
IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED THU OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH GALE FORCE
IN NORMALLY WINDIER PORTIONS OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA FRIDAY
EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF OF JUAN DE
     FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML















000
FXUS66 KSEW 301618
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING CLOUD BUILD UPS
OVER THE CASCADES BY FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHALLOW MARINE STRATUS LEAKED A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND
THAN EXPECTED REACHING INTO THE S/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF PUGET SOUND TO
ABOUT S SEATTLE. VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES STRATUS IN THE
STRAIT AND ALONG THE COAST ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER AIR IN NW FLOW HAS
ERODED SOME CLOUD ALONG THE COAST. THE STATUS IS QUITE SHALLOW AND
WILL BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING OVER THE INTERIOR AND PARTIALLY BURN
OFF ALONG THE COAST/STRAIT. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORT WAVE NEAR
THE NRN CA COAST WHICH WILL MOVE NE CROSSING MAINLY TO THE S OR WRN
WA LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHTING STRIKES ON
THE NRN CA COAST AND WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW FAR N THE CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALONG THE OREGON CASCADES PROPAGATES NWD TOWARD THE
CA/OREGON BORDER BY THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD HAVE NO AFFECT ON THE
WEATHER AROUND PUGET SOUND WITH HIGHS TODAY LIKELY TO REACH THE LOW
TO MID 80S.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHORT WAVE RIDING THURSDAY. UPPER
HEIGHTS BUILD TOWARD 5860-5870M WITH A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH OVER
INTERIOR WRN WA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT SURFACE FLOW EXCPECT
SEA BREEZE AFFECTS ALONG THE COASTLINES IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH 850 MB WARMING TO +17C...EXPECT
MID TO UPPER 80S PRETTY COMMON AROUND PUGET SOUND. A 90 IS NO OUT OF
THE QUESTION AROUND THE SW INTERIOR TOWARD TACOMA. WILL PROBABLY
BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE.

THE COMBINATION OF WARM AIR OVER THE INTERIOR AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY INDUCE A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER MARINE PUSH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. MAY NEED TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVERAGE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGHOUT PUGET SOUND ALTHOUGH IT
WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY BEING AS SHALLOW AS EXPECTED. CURRENT FORECAST
TEMPS LOOK GOOD IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY.
AN EVEN DEEPER MARINE LAYER SATURDAY COULD CAUSE CLOUDS TO HANG
AROUND LONGER BUT STILL EXPECT AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.

OUTSIDE THE MARINE PUSH...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE CHALLENGING BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME MODELS DEVELOP AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW. A SHORT WAVE LIFTING NWD WITH A PAST
TROPICAL CONNECTION WILL BE ENTRAINED NWD BY THE TROUGH.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/CANADIAN BOTH PUSH CONVECTION OFF TO THE E SIDE
BY THE TIME IT REACH ABOUT MOUNT RAINIER. THE NAN-12/WRFGFS/AND
GFS40 HANDLE THIS SYSTEM A LITTLE DIFFERENTLY. THEY HAVE A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH OFFSHORE ALLOWING MOISTURE ADVECTION FURTHER
NWD ALONG THE WA CASCADES. WHILE MOST THE THUNDERSTORM ACTION WOULD
STILL BE ON THE EASTSIDE...LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ALONG AND JUST W OF THE CREST IN THIS SCENARIO. SO THE SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS STILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN AS TO THE
TIMING...COVERAGE...AND CHANCES OF ANY CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS.
WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST AS IS THIS MORNING AND HOPE FOR BETTER MODEL
CONSENSUS AS ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA ARRIVES. THE FORECAST CURRENTLY
INDICATES SOME CLOUD BUILD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MERCER

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ALL OF THE
EXTENDED MODELS SHOWING A VERY WEAK FEATURE MOVING UP OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON ON SATURDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
THIS FEATURE COULD CAUSE WOULD BE AN INCREASE IN THE CONVECTION OVER
THE CASCADES. THE GFS SHOWS A LITTLE SOMETHING OVER THE NORTH
CASCADES ON SATURDAY (PIC4) WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE
ACTIVITY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST JUST SHOWS AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS THIS IS A GOOD WAY TO GO AT THIS POINT.
SOME MORE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL ON SUNDAY WITH THE GFS
(PIC5)(PIC6) AND CANADIAN KEEPING THE WEAK FEATURE IN THE AREA WHICH
WOULD KEEP A CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE ECMWF HAS
THE FEATURE FURTHER EAST. GFS MAINTAINS SOME WEAK TROUGHINESS INTO
MONDAY (PIC7) WHILE THE ECMWF TURNS THE FLOW ALOFT WESTERLY. CURRENT
FORECAST JUST HAS INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON. WILL STAY WITH THIS IDEA FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LOWLANDS. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE A
LITTLE LOWER...IN THE LOWER 580 DMS AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE A
LITTLE STRONGER FOR A CHANCE OF THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS GETTING
FURTHER INLAND BUT THE ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE STRATUS FROM BURNING BACK TO THE COAST EACH DAY. 00Z RUNS
MAX TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER VERSUS THE RUNS
YESTERDAY MORNING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES LOOK FOR THE MAX TEMPS TO
BE KNOCKED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND. EVEN WITH THE
COOLER MAX TEMPERATURES HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE NEAR TO A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE INTERIOR...MID 70S TO MID 80S...THE
COAST AND STRAIT WILL REMAIN NEAR 70 FOR HIGHS EACH DAY. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...A LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER NEVADA WITH
TROUGHING CENTERED ALONG 145W. THIS WILL GIVE LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG 130W COMBINED WITH
THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE LIGHT
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE
WEAKER TONIGHT THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING.

FOG AND LOW STRATUS CAN BE SEEN IN THE CHEHALIS GAP AND THE SOUTH
INTERIOR UP TO JUST SOUTH OF THE SEATAC AIRPORT. ANOTHER STRIP OF
LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS SEEN ON THE NORTH COAST AND THROUGH THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TO THE WEST COAST OF WHIDBEY ISLAND. LOW IFR
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURING WHERE THE STRATUS AND FOG IS LOCATED WHILE
MOST AREAS SEE GOOD VFR CONDITIONS. THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY
BURN OFF BY ABOUT 19Z ACROSS THE REGION.

A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN
OREGON WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON
THEN INTO NE WASHINGTON. THIS WEAK FEATURE WILL LIKELY GIVE SOME
CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER THE CASCADES TODAY. ELSEWHERE EXPECT
CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEHIND THIS
WEAK FEATURE ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LESS ONSHORE FLOW
TONIGHT AND LESS EXTENSIVE FOG AND STRATUS IN THE INTERIOR LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WHEREVER FOG AND STRATUS DO OCCUR...YOU CAN
EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF LIFR CONDITIONS. ALBRECHT

KSEA...STRATUS AND FOG JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL WILL BURN OFF BY
18Z LEAVING CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH 6-9 KT AFTER
20Z WITH WINDS TURNING NE 4-7 KT AFTER 04Z. STRATUS OR FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL ON THURSDAY. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COMBINED WITH
THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 130W HAS WEAKENED A BIT TODAY...SO EXPECT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME INCREASE
IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED THU OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH GALE FORCE
IN NORMALLY WINDIER PORTIONS OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA FRIDAY
EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF OF JUAN DE
     FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML















000
FXUS66 KSEW 301618
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING CLOUD BUILD UPS
OVER THE CASCADES BY FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHALLOW MARINE STRATUS LEAKED A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND
THAN EXPECTED REACHING INTO THE S/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF PUGET SOUND TO
ABOUT S SEATTLE. VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES STRATUS IN THE
STRAIT AND ALONG THE COAST ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER AIR IN NW FLOW HAS
ERODED SOME CLOUD ALONG THE COAST. THE STATUS IS QUITE SHALLOW AND
WILL BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING OVER THE INTERIOR AND PARTIALLY BURN
OFF ALONG THE COAST/STRAIT. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORT WAVE NEAR
THE NRN CA COAST WHICH WILL MOVE NE CROSSING MAINLY TO THE S OR WRN
WA LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHTING STRIKES ON
THE NRN CA COAST AND WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW FAR N THE CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALONG THE OREGON CASCADES PROPAGATES NWD TOWARD THE
CA/OREGON BORDER BY THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD HAVE NO AFFECT ON THE
WEATHER AROUND PUGET SOUND WITH HIGHS TODAY LIKELY TO REACH THE LOW
TO MID 80S.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHORT WAVE RIDING THURSDAY. UPPER
HEIGHTS BUILD TOWARD 5860-5870M WITH A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH OVER
INTERIOR WRN WA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT SURFACE FLOW EXCPECT
SEA BREEZE AFFECTS ALONG THE COASTLINES IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH 850 MB WARMING TO +17C...EXPECT
MID TO UPPER 80S PRETTY COMMON AROUND PUGET SOUND. A 90 IS NO OUT OF
THE QUESTION AROUND THE SW INTERIOR TOWARD TACOMA. WILL PROBABLY
BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE.

THE COMBINATION OF WARM AIR OVER THE INTERIOR AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY INDUCE A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER MARINE PUSH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. MAY NEED TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVERAGE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGHOUT PUGET SOUND ALTHOUGH IT
WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY BEING AS SHALLOW AS EXPECTED. CURRENT FORECAST
TEMPS LOOK GOOD IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY.
AN EVEN DEEPER MARINE LAYER SATURDAY COULD CAUSE CLOUDS TO HANG
AROUND LONGER BUT STILL EXPECT AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.

OUTSIDE THE MARINE PUSH...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE CHALLENGING BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME MODELS DEVELOP AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW. A SHORT WAVE LIFTING NWD WITH A PAST
TROPICAL CONNECTION WILL BE ENTRAINED NWD BY THE TROUGH.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/CANADIAN BOTH PUSH CONVECTION OFF TO THE E SIDE
BY THE TIME IT REACH ABOUT MOUNT RAINIER. THE NAN-12/WRFGFS/AND
GFS40 HANDLE THIS SYSTEM A LITTLE DIFFERENTLY. THEY HAVE A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH OFFSHORE ALLOWING MOISTURE ADVECTION FURTHER
NWD ALONG THE WA CASCADES. WHILE MOST THE THUNDERSTORM ACTION WOULD
STILL BE ON THE EASTSIDE...LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ALONG AND JUST W OF THE CREST IN THIS SCENARIO. SO THE SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS STILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN AS TO THE
TIMING...COVERAGE...AND CHANCES OF ANY CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS.
WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST AS IS THIS MORNING AND HOPE FOR BETTER MODEL
CONSENSUS AS ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA ARRIVES. THE FORECAST CURRENTLY
INDICATES SOME CLOUD BUILD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MERCER

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ALL OF THE
EXTENDED MODELS SHOWING A VERY WEAK FEATURE MOVING UP OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON ON SATURDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
THIS FEATURE COULD CAUSE WOULD BE AN INCREASE IN THE CONVECTION OVER
THE CASCADES. THE GFS SHOWS A LITTLE SOMETHING OVER THE NORTH
CASCADES ON SATURDAY (PIC4) WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE
ACTIVITY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST JUST SHOWS AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS THIS IS A GOOD WAY TO GO AT THIS POINT.
SOME MORE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL ON SUNDAY WITH THE GFS
(PIC5)(PIC6) AND CANADIAN KEEPING THE WEAK FEATURE IN THE AREA WHICH
WOULD KEEP A CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE ECMWF HAS
THE FEATURE FURTHER EAST. GFS MAINTAINS SOME WEAK TROUGHINESS INTO
MONDAY (PIC7) WHILE THE ECMWF TURNS THE FLOW ALOFT WESTERLY. CURRENT
FORECAST JUST HAS INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON. WILL STAY WITH THIS IDEA FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LOWLANDS. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE A
LITTLE LOWER...IN THE LOWER 580 DMS AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE A
LITTLE STRONGER FOR A CHANCE OF THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS GETTING
FURTHER INLAND BUT THE ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE STRATUS FROM BURNING BACK TO THE COAST EACH DAY. 00Z RUNS
MAX TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER VERSUS THE RUNS
YESTERDAY MORNING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES LOOK FOR THE MAX TEMPS TO
BE KNOCKED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND. EVEN WITH THE
COOLER MAX TEMPERATURES HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE NEAR TO A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE INTERIOR...MID 70S TO MID 80S...THE
COAST AND STRAIT WILL REMAIN NEAR 70 FOR HIGHS EACH DAY. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...A LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER NEVADA WITH
TROUGHING CENTERED ALONG 145W. THIS WILL GIVE LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG 130W COMBINED WITH
THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE LIGHT
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE
WEAKER TONIGHT THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING.

FOG AND LOW STRATUS CAN BE SEEN IN THE CHEHALIS GAP AND THE SOUTH
INTERIOR UP TO JUST SOUTH OF THE SEATAC AIRPORT. ANOTHER STRIP OF
LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS SEEN ON THE NORTH COAST AND THROUGH THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TO THE WEST COAST OF WHIDBEY ISLAND. LOW IFR
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURING WHERE THE STRATUS AND FOG IS LOCATED WHILE
MOST AREAS SEE GOOD VFR CONDITIONS. THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY
BURN OFF BY ABOUT 19Z ACROSS THE REGION.

A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN
OREGON WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON
THEN INTO NE WASHINGTON. THIS WEAK FEATURE WILL LIKELY GIVE SOME
CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER THE CASCADES TODAY. ELSEWHERE EXPECT
CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEHIND THIS
WEAK FEATURE ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LESS ONSHORE FLOW
TONIGHT AND LESS EXTENSIVE FOG AND STRATUS IN THE INTERIOR LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WHEREVER FOG AND STRATUS DO OCCUR...YOU CAN
EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF LIFR CONDITIONS. ALBRECHT

KSEA...STRATUS AND FOG JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL WILL BURN OFF BY
18Z LEAVING CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH 6-9 KT AFTER
20Z WITH WINDS TURNING NE 4-7 KT AFTER 04Z. STRATUS OR FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL ON THURSDAY. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COMBINED WITH
THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 130W HAS WEAKENED A BIT TODAY...SO EXPECT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME INCREASE
IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED THU OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH GALE FORCE
IN NORMALLY WINDIER PORTIONS OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA FRIDAY
EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF OF JUAN DE
     FUCA.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 301618
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING CLOUD BUILD UPS
OVER THE CASCADES BY FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHALLOW MARINE STRATUS LEAKED A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND
THAN EXPECTED REACHING INTO THE S/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF PUGET SOUND TO
ABOUT S SEATTLE. VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES STRATUS IN THE
STRAIT AND ALONG THE COAST ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER AIR IN NW FLOW HAS
ERODED SOME CLOUD ALONG THE COAST. THE STATUS IS QUITE SHALLOW AND
WILL BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING OVER THE INTERIOR AND PARTIALLY BURN
OFF ALONG THE COAST/STRAIT. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORT WAVE NEAR
THE NRN CA COAST WHICH WILL MOVE NE CROSSING MAINLY TO THE S OR WRN
WA LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHTING STRIKES ON
THE NRN CA COAST AND WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW FAR N THE CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALONG THE OREGON CASCADES PROPAGATES NWD TOWARD THE
CA/OREGON BORDER BY THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD HAVE NO AFFECT ON THE
WEATHER AROUND PUGET SOUND WITH HIGHS TODAY LIKELY TO REACH THE LOW
TO MID 80S.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHORT WAVE RIDING THURSDAY. UPPER
HEIGHTS BUILD TOWARD 5860-5870M WITH A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH OVER
INTERIOR WRN WA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT SURFACE FLOW EXCPECT
SEA BREEZE AFFECTS ALONG THE COASTLINES IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH 850 MB WARMING TO +17C...EXPECT
MID TO UPPER 80S PRETTY COMMON AROUND PUGET SOUND. A 90 IS NO OUT OF
THE QUESTION AROUND THE SW INTERIOR TOWARD TACOMA. WILL PROBABLY
BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE.

THE COMBINATION OF WARM AIR OVER THE INTERIOR AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY INDUCE A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER MARINE PUSH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. MAY NEED TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVERAGE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGHOUT PUGET SOUND ALTHOUGH IT
WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY BEING AS SHALLOW AS EXPECTED. CURRENT FORECAST
TEMPS LOOK GOOD IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY.
AN EVEN DEEPER MARINE LAYER SATURDAY COULD CAUSE CLOUDS TO HANG
AROUND LONGER BUT STILL EXPECT AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.

OUTSIDE THE MARINE PUSH...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE CHALLENGING BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME MODELS DEVELOP AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW. A SHORT WAVE LIFTING NWD WITH A PAST
TROPICAL CONNECTION WILL BE ENTRAINED NWD BY THE TROUGH.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/CANADIAN BOTH PUSH CONVECTION OFF TO THE E SIDE
BY THE TIME IT REACH ABOUT MOUNT RAINIER. THE NAN-12/WRFGFS/AND
GFS40 HANDLE THIS SYSTEM A LITTLE DIFFERENTLY. THEY HAVE A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH OFFSHORE ALLOWING MOISTURE ADVECTION FURTHER
NWD ALONG THE WA CASCADES. WHILE MOST THE THUNDERSTORM ACTION WOULD
STILL BE ON THE EASTSIDE...LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ALONG AND JUST W OF THE CREST IN THIS SCENARIO. SO THE SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS STILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN AS TO THE
TIMING...COVERAGE...AND CHANCES OF ANY CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS.
WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST AS IS THIS MORNING AND HOPE FOR BETTER MODEL
CONSENSUS AS ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA ARRIVES. THE FORECAST CURRENTLY
INDICATES SOME CLOUD BUILD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MERCER

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ALL OF THE
EXTENDED MODELS SHOWING A VERY WEAK FEATURE MOVING UP OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON ON SATURDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
THIS FEATURE COULD CAUSE WOULD BE AN INCREASE IN THE CONVECTION OVER
THE CASCADES. THE GFS SHOWS A LITTLE SOMETHING OVER THE NORTH
CASCADES ON SATURDAY (PIC4) WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE
ACTIVITY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST JUST SHOWS AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS THIS IS A GOOD WAY TO GO AT THIS POINT.
SOME MORE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL ON SUNDAY WITH THE GFS
(PIC5)(PIC6) AND CANADIAN KEEPING THE WEAK FEATURE IN THE AREA WHICH
WOULD KEEP A CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE ECMWF HAS
THE FEATURE FURTHER EAST. GFS MAINTAINS SOME WEAK TROUGHINESS INTO
MONDAY (PIC7) WHILE THE ECMWF TURNS THE FLOW ALOFT WESTERLY. CURRENT
FORECAST JUST HAS INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON. WILL STAY WITH THIS IDEA FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LOWLANDS. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE A
LITTLE LOWER...IN THE LOWER 580 DMS AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE A
LITTLE STRONGER FOR A CHANCE OF THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS GETTING
FURTHER INLAND BUT THE ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE STRATUS FROM BURNING BACK TO THE COAST EACH DAY. 00Z RUNS
MAX TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER VERSUS THE RUNS
YESTERDAY MORNING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES LOOK FOR THE MAX TEMPS TO
BE KNOCKED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND. EVEN WITH THE
COOLER MAX TEMPERATURES HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE NEAR TO A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE INTERIOR...MID 70S TO MID 80S...THE
COAST AND STRAIT WILL REMAIN NEAR 70 FOR HIGHS EACH DAY. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...A LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER NEVADA WITH
TROUGHING CENTERED ALONG 145W. THIS WILL GIVE LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG 130W COMBINED WITH
THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE LIGHT
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE
WEAKER TONIGHT THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING.

FOG AND LOW STRATUS CAN BE SEEN IN THE CHEHALIS GAP AND THE SOUTH
INTERIOR UP TO JUST SOUTH OF THE SEATAC AIRPORT. ANOTHER STRIP OF
LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS SEEN ON THE NORTH COAST AND THROUGH THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TO THE WEST COAST OF WHIDBEY ISLAND. LOW IFR
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURING WHERE THE STRATUS AND FOG IS LOCATED WHILE
MOST AREAS SEE GOOD VFR CONDITIONS. THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY
BURN OFF BY ABOUT 19Z ACROSS THE REGION.

A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN
OREGON WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON
THEN INTO NE WASHINGTON. THIS WEAK FEATURE WILL LIKELY GIVE SOME
CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER THE CASCADES TODAY. ELSEWHERE EXPECT
CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEHIND THIS
WEAK FEATURE ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LESS ONSHORE FLOW
TONIGHT AND LESS EXTENSIVE FOG AND STRATUS IN THE INTERIOR LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WHEREVER FOG AND STRATUS DO OCCUR...YOU CAN
EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF LIFR CONDITIONS. ALBRECHT

KSEA...STRATUS AND FOG JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL WILL BURN OFF BY
18Z LEAVING CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH 6-9 KT AFTER
20Z WITH WINDS TURNING NE 4-7 KT AFTER 04Z. STRATUS OR FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL ON THURSDAY. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COMBINED WITH
THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 130W HAS WEAKENED A BIT TODAY...SO EXPECT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME INCREASE
IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED THU OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH GALE FORCE
IN NORMALLY WINDIER PORTIONS OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA FRIDAY
EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF OF JUAN DE
     FUCA.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KOTX 301612
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
912 AM PDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny and hot weather will continue over the Inland Northwest
through at least Friday. Heat advisories are in effect for
portions of the Columbia Basin, Wenatchee area, the Washington
Palouse and the Lewiston/Clarkston areas. A gradual increase in
clouds over the next few days may knock temperatures down a few
degrees, but mid to upper 90s will be common through the work
week. The threat for thunderstorms should increase over the
weekend which will prevent temperatures from climbing to 100
degrees or more. Isolated thunderstorms today are not expected to
be strong or severe.


&&

.DISCUSSION...The forecast area will be located on the backside of
an upper level ridge and under a weak southwest flow aloft for the
next several days. Water vapor loops show a mid-level wave
approaching Southwest Oregon that will track to the northeast and
bring the potential for isolated thunderstorms in our southeast
zones later this afternoon and evening. The bulk shear is very
weak and the convective available potential energy (200-400 J/Kg
of 850-500MB MUCAPE) is not very strong... therefore any storms
that develop should be the garden variety type that will diminish
after sunset. Forecast was updated to remove the isolated
thunderstorms for the east slopes of the Northern Cascades south
of Okanogan County. Drier mid-level air will likely spread over
the western half of Washington today, but there may be buildups or
even a thunderstorm near the Carlton and Chiwaukum Complexes that
will need to be monitored. A heat advisory was also issued for the
Wenatchee area, Waterville Plateau, the Upper Columbia Basin, and
the Lewiston/Clarkston areas. Wister

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Scattered mid/high level clouds will continue to
overspread most sites through the period. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms may develop across the far northern Cascades and NE
Blue Mts into the Idaho panhandle this afternoon but confidence is
very low that convection will affect any TAF site. MCW



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        97  67  96  67  94  65 /   0  10  10   0  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  95  62  94  61  93  62 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        95  56  94  59  92  57 /  10  10  10  10  10  20
Lewiston      102  70 101  71  99  68 /  10  10  10  10  20  20
Colville      102  57 101  58  97  59 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      93  54  92  54  90  56 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        93  61  93  61  91  62 /  10  10  20  10  10  20
Moses Lake    102  64 101  64  99  64 /  10   0   0  10  10  10
Wenatchee     100  71 100  71  98  71 /  10   0   0  10  10  10
Omak          102  65 100  65 100  68 /   0   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Moses Lake Area-
     Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-
     Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$








000
FXUS66 KSEW 301330
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
355 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER THE INTERIOR.
NORTHERLY WINDS RIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE HAS BROKEN UP THE LOW CLOUDS
ALONG THE NORTH COAST WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF THE LOW
CLOUDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY (PIC0)
TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM RANGED FROM NEAR 50 AT FORKS AND FRIDAY HARBOR
TO THE MID 60S IN THE SEATTLE METRO AREA.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS (PIC1)(PIC2)(PIC3) WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS IN THE MID 580
DMS. THERE WAS A LITTLE SURGE OF MARINE AIR INTO THE INTERIOR LAST
NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. EVEN
THROUGH THE STRATUS DID NOT MAKE IT DOWN THE STRAIT OR MUCH FURTHER
EAST THAN SHELTON DEW POINTS THIS MORNING ARE 2 TO 6 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN LAST NIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR. MODEL 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A
TOUCH COOLER TODAY VERSUS THE LAST TWO DAYS. ADD THIS TO THE WEAK
MARINE AIR  INTRUSION WILL GO FOR A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING FOR
THE HIGHS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY. MID 70S TO UPPER 80S WILL BE
COMMON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR THE STRAIT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

PRETTY MUCH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE
LOW CLOUDS FORMING ALONG THE COAST IN THE EVENING PUSHING INLAND
DOWN THE STRAIT AND THROUGH THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY INTO THE VERY
SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OFT HE PUGET SOUND IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
EACH DAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW WITH THE STRATUS BURNING
BACK TO THE COAST EACH MORNING. HIGHS ALONG THE COAST AND STRAIT
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH HIGHS IN THE INTERIOR
IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S.

A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THE PERSISTENCE FORECAST IS OVER THE CENTRAL
WASHINGTON CASCADES. 00Z MODEL RUNS SHOW THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES. MONSOON MOISTURE
ROTATING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE  HAS
RESULTED IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS NEAR AS THE OREGON CASCADES
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. EVEN WITH THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
THE 00Z MODEL RUNS DO NOT HAVE ANY CONVECTION ON THIS SIDE OF THE
CASCADES THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST UNCHANGED.

.LONG TERM...ALL OF THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOWING A VERY WEAK FEATURE
MOVING UP OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON ON SATURDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS FEATURE COULD CAUSE WOULD BE AN INCREASE
IN THE CONVECTION OVER THE CASCADES. THE GFS SHOWS A LITTLE
SOMETHING OVER THE NORTH CASCADES ON SATURDAY (PIC4) WHILE THE REST
OF THE MODELS KEEP THE ACTIVITY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. CURRENT
FORECAST JUST SHOWS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS THIS IS A GOOD WAY TO
GO AT THIS POINT. SOME MORE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL ON SUNDAY WITH
THE GFS (PIC5)(PIC6) AND CANADIAN KEEPING THE WEAK FEATURE IN THE
AREA WHICH WOULD KEEP A CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
ECMWF HAS THE FEATURE FURTHER EAST. GFS MAINTAINS SOME WEAK
TROUGHINESS INTO MONDAY (PIC7) WHILE THE ECMWF TURNS THE FLOW ALOFT
WESTERLY. CURRENT FORECAST JUST HAS INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL STAY WITH THIS IDEA FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LOWLANDS. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE A
LITTLE LOWER...IN THE LOWER 580 DMS AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE A
LITTLE STRONGER FOR A CHANCE OF THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS GETTING
FURTHER INLAND BUT THE ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE STRATUS FROM BURNING BACK TO THE COAST EACH DAY. 00Z RUNS
MAX TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER VERSUS THE RUNS
YESTERDAY MORNING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES LOOK FOR THE MAX TEMPS TO
BE KNOCKED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND. EVEN WITH THE
COOLER MAX TEMPERATURES HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE NEAR TO A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE INTERIOR...MID 70S TO MID 80S...THE
COAST AND STRAIT WILL REMAIN NEAR 70 FOR HIGHS EACH DAY. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH SW
FLOW ALOFT OVER WA (PIC15). AT THE SURFACE THERE IS HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES (PIC11). THE
AIR IS DRY AND STABLE EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG...MAINLY COAST AND STRAIT. OTHERWISE...MORE SUNNY WEATHER ON TAP
TODAY.

KSEA...CLEAR WITH NLY BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH LOWER PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE VARYING DEGREES OF ONSHORE FLOW EACH
DAY. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE...HERE IS THE GFS SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE FORECAST LATE EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE NEXT FOUR DAYS
(PIC11) (PIC12) (PIC13) (PIC14). WEAKER ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF OF JUAN DE
FUCA.


&&

$$

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FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
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000
FXUS66 KSEW 301330
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
355 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER THE INTERIOR.
NORTHERLY WINDS RIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE HAS BROKEN UP THE LOW CLOUDS
ALONG THE NORTH COAST WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF THE LOW
CLOUDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY (PIC0)
TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM RANGED FROM NEAR 50 AT FORKS AND FRIDAY HARBOR
TO THE MID 60S IN THE SEATTLE METRO AREA.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS (PIC1)(PIC2)(PIC3) WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS IN THE MID 580
DMS. THERE WAS A LITTLE SURGE OF MARINE AIR INTO THE INTERIOR LAST
NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. EVEN
THROUGH THE STRATUS DID NOT MAKE IT DOWN THE STRAIT OR MUCH FURTHER
EAST THAN SHELTON DEW POINTS THIS MORNING ARE 2 TO 6 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN LAST NIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR. MODEL 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A
TOUCH COOLER TODAY VERSUS THE LAST TWO DAYS. ADD THIS TO THE WEAK
MARINE AIR  INTRUSION WILL GO FOR A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING FOR
THE HIGHS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY. MID 70S TO UPPER 80S WILL BE
COMMON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR THE STRAIT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

PRETTY MUCH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE
LOW CLOUDS FORMING ALONG THE COAST IN THE EVENING PUSHING INLAND
DOWN THE STRAIT AND THROUGH THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY INTO THE VERY
SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OFT HE PUGET SOUND IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
EACH DAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW WITH THE STRATUS BURNING
BACK TO THE COAST EACH MORNING. HIGHS ALONG THE COAST AND STRAIT
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH HIGHS IN THE INTERIOR
IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S.

A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THE PERSISTENCE FORECAST IS OVER THE CENTRAL
WASHINGTON CASCADES. 00Z MODEL RUNS SHOW THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES. MONSOON MOISTURE
ROTATING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE  HAS
RESULTED IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS NEAR AS THE OREGON CASCADES
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. EVEN WITH THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
THE 00Z MODEL RUNS DO NOT HAVE ANY CONVECTION ON THIS SIDE OF THE
CASCADES THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST UNCHANGED.

.LONG TERM...ALL OF THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOWING A VERY WEAK FEATURE
MOVING UP OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON ON SATURDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS FEATURE COULD CAUSE WOULD BE AN INCREASE
IN THE CONVECTION OVER THE CASCADES. THE GFS SHOWS A LITTLE
SOMETHING OVER THE NORTH CASCADES ON SATURDAY (PIC4) WHILE THE REST
OF THE MODELS KEEP THE ACTIVITY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. CURRENT
FORECAST JUST SHOWS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS THIS IS A GOOD WAY TO
GO AT THIS POINT. SOME MORE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL ON SUNDAY WITH
THE GFS (PIC5)(PIC6) AND CANADIAN KEEPING THE WEAK FEATURE IN THE
AREA WHICH WOULD KEEP A CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
ECMWF HAS THE FEATURE FURTHER EAST. GFS MAINTAINS SOME WEAK
TROUGHINESS INTO MONDAY (PIC7) WHILE THE ECMWF TURNS THE FLOW ALOFT
WESTERLY. CURRENT FORECAST JUST HAS INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL STAY WITH THIS IDEA FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LOWLANDS. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE A
LITTLE LOWER...IN THE LOWER 580 DMS AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE A
LITTLE STRONGER FOR A CHANCE OF THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS GETTING
FURTHER INLAND BUT THE ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE STRATUS FROM BURNING BACK TO THE COAST EACH DAY. 00Z RUNS
MAX TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER VERSUS THE RUNS
YESTERDAY MORNING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES LOOK FOR THE MAX TEMPS TO
BE KNOCKED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND. EVEN WITH THE
COOLER MAX TEMPERATURES HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE NEAR TO A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE INTERIOR...MID 70S TO MID 80S...THE
COAST AND STRAIT WILL REMAIN NEAR 70 FOR HIGHS EACH DAY. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH SW
FLOW ALOFT OVER WA (PIC15). AT THE SURFACE THERE IS HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES (PIC11). THE
AIR IS DRY AND STABLE EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG...MAINLY COAST AND STRAIT. OTHERWISE...MORE SUNNY WEATHER ON TAP
TODAY.

KSEA...CLEAR WITH NLY BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH LOWER PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE VARYING DEGREES OF ONSHORE FLOW EACH
DAY. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE...HERE IS THE GFS SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE FORECAST LATE EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE NEXT FOUR DAYS
(PIC11) (PIC12) (PIC13) (PIC14). WEAKER ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF OF JUAN DE
FUCA.


&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML











000
FXUS66 KSEW 301330
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
355 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER THE INTERIOR.
NORTHERLY WINDS RIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE HAS BROKEN UP THE LOW CLOUDS
ALONG THE NORTH COAST WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF THE LOW
CLOUDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY (PIC0)
TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM RANGED FROM NEAR 50 AT FORKS AND FRIDAY HARBOR
TO THE MID 60S IN THE SEATTLE METRO AREA.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS (PIC1)(PIC2)(PIC3) WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS IN THE MID 580
DMS. THERE WAS A LITTLE SURGE OF MARINE AIR INTO THE INTERIOR LAST
NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. EVEN
THROUGH THE STRATUS DID NOT MAKE IT DOWN THE STRAIT OR MUCH FURTHER
EAST THAN SHELTON DEW POINTS THIS MORNING ARE 2 TO 6 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN LAST NIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR. MODEL 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A
TOUCH COOLER TODAY VERSUS THE LAST TWO DAYS. ADD THIS TO THE WEAK
MARINE AIR  INTRUSION WILL GO FOR A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING FOR
THE HIGHS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY. MID 70S TO UPPER 80S WILL BE
COMMON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR THE STRAIT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

PRETTY MUCH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE
LOW CLOUDS FORMING ALONG THE COAST IN THE EVENING PUSHING INLAND
DOWN THE STRAIT AND THROUGH THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY INTO THE VERY
SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OFT HE PUGET SOUND IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
EACH DAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW WITH THE STRATUS BURNING
BACK TO THE COAST EACH MORNING. HIGHS ALONG THE COAST AND STRAIT
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH HIGHS IN THE INTERIOR
IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S.

A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THE PERSISTENCE FORECAST IS OVER THE CENTRAL
WASHINGTON CASCADES. 00Z MODEL RUNS SHOW THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES. MONSOON MOISTURE
ROTATING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE  HAS
RESULTED IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS NEAR AS THE OREGON CASCADES
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. EVEN WITH THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
THE 00Z MODEL RUNS DO NOT HAVE ANY CONVECTION ON THIS SIDE OF THE
CASCADES THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST UNCHANGED.

.LONG TERM...ALL OF THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOWING A VERY WEAK FEATURE
MOVING UP OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON ON SATURDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS FEATURE COULD CAUSE WOULD BE AN INCREASE
IN THE CONVECTION OVER THE CASCADES. THE GFS SHOWS A LITTLE
SOMETHING OVER THE NORTH CASCADES ON SATURDAY (PIC4) WHILE THE REST
OF THE MODELS KEEP THE ACTIVITY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. CURRENT
FORECAST JUST SHOWS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS THIS IS A GOOD WAY TO
GO AT THIS POINT. SOME MORE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL ON SUNDAY WITH
THE GFS (PIC5)(PIC6) AND CANADIAN KEEPING THE WEAK FEATURE IN THE
AREA WHICH WOULD KEEP A CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
ECMWF HAS THE FEATURE FURTHER EAST. GFS MAINTAINS SOME WEAK
TROUGHINESS INTO MONDAY (PIC7) WHILE THE ECMWF TURNS THE FLOW ALOFT
WESTERLY. CURRENT FORECAST JUST HAS INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL STAY WITH THIS IDEA FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LOWLANDS. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE A
LITTLE LOWER...IN THE LOWER 580 DMS AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE A
LITTLE STRONGER FOR A CHANCE OF THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS GETTING
FURTHER INLAND BUT THE ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE STRATUS FROM BURNING BACK TO THE COAST EACH DAY. 00Z RUNS
MAX TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER VERSUS THE RUNS
YESTERDAY MORNING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES LOOK FOR THE MAX TEMPS TO
BE KNOCKED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND. EVEN WITH THE
COOLER MAX TEMPERATURES HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE NEAR TO A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE INTERIOR...MID 70S TO MID 80S...THE
COAST AND STRAIT WILL REMAIN NEAR 70 FOR HIGHS EACH DAY. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH SW
FLOW ALOFT OVER WA (PIC15). AT THE SURFACE THERE IS HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES (PIC11). THE
AIR IS DRY AND STABLE EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG...MAINLY COAST AND STRAIT. OTHERWISE...MORE SUNNY WEATHER ON TAP
TODAY.

KSEA...CLEAR WITH NLY BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH LOWER PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE VARYING DEGREES OF ONSHORE FLOW EACH
DAY. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE...HERE IS THE GFS SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE FORECAST LATE EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE NEXT FOUR DAYS
(PIC11) (PIC12) (PIC13) (PIC14). WEAKER ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF OF JUAN DE
FUCA.


&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML











000
FXUS66 KSEW 301330
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
355 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER THE INTERIOR.
NORTHERLY WINDS RIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE HAS BROKEN UP THE LOW CLOUDS
ALONG THE NORTH COAST WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF THE LOW
CLOUDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY (PIC0)
TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM RANGED FROM NEAR 50 AT FORKS AND FRIDAY HARBOR
TO THE MID 60S IN THE SEATTLE METRO AREA.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS (PIC1)(PIC2)(PIC3) WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS IN THE MID 580
DMS. THERE WAS A LITTLE SURGE OF MARINE AIR INTO THE INTERIOR LAST
NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. EVEN
THROUGH THE STRATUS DID NOT MAKE IT DOWN THE STRAIT OR MUCH FURTHER
EAST THAN SHELTON DEW POINTS THIS MORNING ARE 2 TO 6 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN LAST NIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR. MODEL 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A
TOUCH COOLER TODAY VERSUS THE LAST TWO DAYS. ADD THIS TO THE WEAK
MARINE AIR  INTRUSION WILL GO FOR A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING FOR
THE HIGHS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY. MID 70S TO UPPER 80S WILL BE
COMMON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR THE STRAIT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

PRETTY MUCH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE
LOW CLOUDS FORMING ALONG THE COAST IN THE EVENING PUSHING INLAND
DOWN THE STRAIT AND THROUGH THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY INTO THE VERY
SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OFT HE PUGET SOUND IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
EACH DAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW WITH THE STRATUS BURNING
BACK TO THE COAST EACH MORNING. HIGHS ALONG THE COAST AND STRAIT
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH HIGHS IN THE INTERIOR
IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S.

A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THE PERSISTENCE FORECAST IS OVER THE CENTRAL
WASHINGTON CASCADES. 00Z MODEL RUNS SHOW THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES. MONSOON MOISTURE
ROTATING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE  HAS
RESULTED IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS NEAR AS THE OREGON CASCADES
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. EVEN WITH THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
THE 00Z MODEL RUNS DO NOT HAVE ANY CONVECTION ON THIS SIDE OF THE
CASCADES THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST UNCHANGED.

.LONG TERM...ALL OF THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOWING A VERY WEAK FEATURE
MOVING UP OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON ON SATURDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS FEATURE COULD CAUSE WOULD BE AN INCREASE
IN THE CONVECTION OVER THE CASCADES. THE GFS SHOWS A LITTLE
SOMETHING OVER THE NORTH CASCADES ON SATURDAY (PIC4) WHILE THE REST
OF THE MODELS KEEP THE ACTIVITY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. CURRENT
FORECAST JUST SHOWS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS THIS IS A GOOD WAY TO
GO AT THIS POINT. SOME MORE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL ON SUNDAY WITH
THE GFS (PIC5)(PIC6) AND CANADIAN KEEPING THE WEAK FEATURE IN THE
AREA WHICH WOULD KEEP A CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
ECMWF HAS THE FEATURE FURTHER EAST. GFS MAINTAINS SOME WEAK
TROUGHINESS INTO MONDAY (PIC7) WHILE THE ECMWF TURNS THE FLOW ALOFT
WESTERLY. CURRENT FORECAST JUST HAS INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL STAY WITH THIS IDEA FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LOWLANDS. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE A
LITTLE LOWER...IN THE LOWER 580 DMS AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE A
LITTLE STRONGER FOR A CHANCE OF THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS GETTING
FURTHER INLAND BUT THE ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE STRATUS FROM BURNING BACK TO THE COAST EACH DAY. 00Z RUNS
MAX TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER VERSUS THE RUNS
YESTERDAY MORNING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES LOOK FOR THE MAX TEMPS TO
BE KNOCKED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND. EVEN WITH THE
COOLER MAX TEMPERATURES HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE NEAR TO A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE INTERIOR...MID 70S TO MID 80S...THE
COAST AND STRAIT WILL REMAIN NEAR 70 FOR HIGHS EACH DAY. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH SW
FLOW ALOFT OVER WA (PIC15). AT THE SURFACE THERE IS HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES (PIC11). THE
AIR IS DRY AND STABLE EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG...MAINLY COAST AND STRAIT. OTHERWISE...MORE SUNNY WEATHER ON TAP
TODAY.

KSEA...CLEAR WITH NLY BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH LOWER PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE VARYING DEGREES OF ONSHORE FLOW EACH
DAY. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE...HERE IS THE GFS SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE FORECAST LATE EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE NEXT FOUR DAYS
(PIC11) (PIC12) (PIC13) (PIC14). WEAKER ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF OF JUAN DE
FUCA.


&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML











000
FXUS66 KOTX 301120
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
420 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny and hot weather will continue over the Inland Northwest
through at least Friday. A gradual increase in clouds over the
next few days may knock temperatures down a few degrees, but mid
90s to low 100s will be common through the work week. The threat
for thunderstorms should increase over the weekend which may
knock temperatures down a bit more.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...The ridge of high pressure will remain
fixed over the region keeping temperatures well above normal. Dry
conditions will prevail for much of the forecast area but isolated
showers and thunderstorms will be possible for some of the higher
terrain today and Thursday. We did see a couple convective cells
pop up over the North Cascades Tuesday and since there will be a
bit stronger impulse brushing the area today, isolated TS were
added to the forecast there. The better (but still low) chance of
showers and thunderstorms will be across the southeast zones where
monsoonal moisture will push up from the south. Satellite imagery
at 2 am PDT shows this moisture headed our way and models are
showing a better, but still modest, surge for Thursday. Convective
parameters are not impressive but definitely worth a slight chance
of thunder in the forecast. One question mark is the moisture from
the remnants of a tropical system that is streaming into soCal but
models are keeping this well to our south around Nevada. The
increased cloud cover will work to keep daytime temperatures a
couple of degrees cooler than Tuesday, but not much more than
that. The heat will continue on Thursday with valley temps in the
mid 90s to low triple digits. Overnight lows will remain quite
warm, mainly in the 60s, with poor RH recovery, especially for the
mid-slope locations. /Kelch

Thursday night through Tuesday...An Omega blocking pattern will be
over North America through Tuesday. Deep upper lows will be in the
eastern Pacific and another near Hudson bay...with a mean ridge of
high pressure in between. The ridge axis is expected to move far
enough east over the next 24-36 hours for southwest flow to
develop across the Pacific Northwest, this will allow moisture to
move up from the south and southwest. In addition there will be a
series of weak weather disturbances moving through the region.
While this flow pattern will result in a slight cool down in
temperatures, daily highs will remain 5-10 degrees above seasonal
averages. Moisture advection into the region will help to further
destabilize the atmosphere and in combination with the forcing
provided by the weak disturbances there will be a chance of late
day convection each day. This convection will be mainly tied to
the mountain terrain each afternoon, but in reality an afternoon
thunderstorm will be possible anywhere in the forecast area.
/Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Scattered mid/high level clouds will continue to
overspread most sites through the period. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms may develop across the north Cascades and NE Blue
Mts into the Idaho panhandle this afternoon but confidence is
very low that convection will affect any TAF site. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        97  67  96  67  94  65 /   0  10  10   0  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  95  62  94  61  93  62 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        95  56  94  59  92  57 /  10  10  10  10  10  20
Lewiston      102  70 101  71  99  68 /  10  10  10  10  20  20
Colville      102  57 101  58  97  59 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      93  54  92  54  90  56 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        93  61  93  61  91  62 /  10  10  20  10  10  20
Moses Lake    102  64 101  64  99  64 /  10   0   0  10  10  10
Wenatchee     100  71 100  71  98  71 /  10   0   0  10  10  10
Omak          102  65 100  65 100  68 /   0   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 301120
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
420 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny and hot weather will continue over the Inland Northwest
through at least Friday. A gradual increase in clouds over the
next few days may knock temperatures down a few degrees, but mid
90s to low 100s will be common through the work week. The threat
for thunderstorms should increase over the weekend which may
knock temperatures down a bit more.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...The ridge of high pressure will remain
fixed over the region keeping temperatures well above normal. Dry
conditions will prevail for much of the forecast area but isolated
showers and thunderstorms will be possible for some of the higher
terrain today and Thursday. We did see a couple convective cells
pop up over the North Cascades Tuesday and since there will be a
bit stronger impulse brushing the area today, isolated TS were
added to the forecast there. The better (but still low) chance of
showers and thunderstorms will be across the southeast zones where
monsoonal moisture will push up from the south. Satellite imagery
at 2 am PDT shows this moisture headed our way and models are
showing a better, but still modest, surge for Thursday. Convective
parameters are not impressive but definitely worth a slight chance
of thunder in the forecast. One question mark is the moisture from
the remnants of a tropical system that is streaming into soCal but
models are keeping this well to our south around Nevada. The
increased cloud cover will work to keep daytime temperatures a
couple of degrees cooler than Tuesday, but not much more than
that. The heat will continue on Thursday with valley temps in the
mid 90s to low triple digits. Overnight lows will remain quite
warm, mainly in the 60s, with poor RH recovery, especially for the
mid-slope locations. /Kelch

Thursday night through Tuesday...An Omega blocking pattern will be
over North America through Tuesday. Deep upper lows will be in the
eastern Pacific and another near Hudson bay...with a mean ridge of
high pressure in between. The ridge axis is expected to move far
enough east over the next 24-36 hours for southwest flow to
develop across the Pacific Northwest, this will allow moisture to
move up from the south and southwest. In addition there will be a
series of weak weather disturbances moving through the region.
While this flow pattern will result in a slight cool down in
temperatures, daily highs will remain 5-10 degrees above seasonal
averages. Moisture advection into the region will help to further
destabilize the atmosphere and in combination with the forcing
provided by the weak disturbances there will be a chance of late
day convection each day. This convection will be mainly tied to
the mountain terrain each afternoon, but in reality an afternoon
thunderstorm will be possible anywhere in the forecast area.
/Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Scattered mid/high level clouds will continue to
overspread most sites through the period. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms may develop across the north Cascades and NE Blue
Mts into the Idaho panhandle this afternoon but confidence is
very low that convection will affect any TAF site. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        97  67  96  67  94  65 /   0  10  10   0  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  95  62  94  61  93  62 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        95  56  94  59  92  57 /  10  10  10  10  10  20
Lewiston      102  70 101  71  99  68 /  10  10  10  10  20  20
Colville      102  57 101  58  97  59 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      93  54  92  54  90  56 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        93  61  93  61  91  62 /  10  10  20  10  10  20
Moses Lake    102  64 101  64  99  64 /  10   0   0  10  10  10
Wenatchee     100  71 100  71  98  71 /  10   0   0  10  10  10
Omak          102  65 100  65 100  68 /   0   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 301055
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
355 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER THE INTERIOR.
NORTHERLY WINDS RIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE HAS BROKEN UP THE LOW CLOUDS
ALONG THE NORTH COAST WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF THE LOW
CLOUDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM RANGED FROM NEAR 50 AT FORKS AND FRIDAY HARBOR
TO THE MID 60S IN THE SEATTLE METRO AREA.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS IN THE MID 580 DMS. THERE WAS A
LITTLE SURGE OF MARINE AIR INTO THE INTERIOR LAST NIGHT WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. EVEN THROUGH THE STRATUS
DID NOT MAKE IT DOWN THE STRAIT OR MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN SHELTON
DEW POINTS THIS MORNING ARE 2 TO 6 DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT
OVER THE INTERIOR. MODEL 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TOUCH COOLER
TODAY VERSUS THE LAST TWO DAYS. ADD THIS TO THE WEAK MARINE AIR
INTRUSION WILL GO FOR A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING FOR THE HIGHS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY. MID 70S TO UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR THE STRAIT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

PRETTY MUCH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE
LOW CLOUDS FORMING ALONG THE COAST IN THE EVENING PUSHING INLAND
DOWN THE STRAIT AND THROUGH THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY INTO THE VERY
SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OFT HE PUGET SOUND IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
EACH DAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW WITH THE STRATUS BURNING
BACK TO THE COAST EACH MORNING. HIGHS ALONG THE COAST AND STRAIT
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH HIGHS IN THE INTERIOR
IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S.

A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THE PERSISTENCE FORECAST IS OVER THE CENTRAL
WASHINGTON CASCADES. 00Z MODEL RUNS SHOW THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES. MONSOON MOISTURE
ROTATING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE  HAS
RESULTED IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS NEAR AS THE OREGON CASCADES
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. EVEN WITH THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
THE 00Z MODEL RUNS DO NOT HAVE ANY CONVECTION ON THIS SIDE OF THE
CASCADES THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST UNCHANGED.

.LONG TERM...ALL OF THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOWING A VERY WEAK FEATURE
MOVING UP OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON ON SATURDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS FEATURE COULD CAUSE WOULD BE AN INCREASE
IN THE CONVECTION OVER THE CASCADES. THE GFS SHOWS A LITTLE
SOMETHING OVER THE NORTH CASCADES ON SATURDAY WHILE THE REST OF THE
MODELS KEEP THE ACTIVITY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. CURRENT
FORECAST JUST SHOWS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS THIS IS A GOOD WAY TO
GO AT THIS POINT. SOME MORE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL ON SUNDAY WITH
THE GFS AND CANADIAN KEEPING THE WEAK FEATURE IN THE AREA WHICH
WOULD KEEP A CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE ECMWF HAS
THE FEATURE FURTHER EAST. GFS MAINTAINS SOME WEAK TROUGHINESS INTO
MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF TURNS THE FLOW ALOFT WESTERLY. CURRENT
FORECAST JUST HAS INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON. WILL STAY WITH THIS IDEA FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LOWLANDS. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE A
LITTLE LOWER...IN THE LOWER 580 DMS AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE A
LITTLE STRONGER FOR A CHANCE OF THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS GETTING
FURTHER INLAND BUT THE ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE STRATUS FROM BURNING BACK TO THE COAST EACH DAY. 00Z RUNS
MAX TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER VERSUS THE RUNS
YESTERDAY MORNING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES LOOK FOR THE MAX TEMPS TO
BE KNOCKED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND. EVEN WITH THE
COOLER MAX TEMPERATURES HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE NEAR TO A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE INTERIOR...MID 70S TO MID 80S...THE
COAST AND STRAIT WILL REMAIN NEAR 70 FOR HIGHS EACH DAY. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH SW
FLOW ALOFT OVER WA. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE AIR IS DRY AND
STABLE EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...MAINLY COAST AND
STRAIT. OTHERWISE...MORE SUNNY WEATHER ON TAP TODAY.

KSEA...CLEAR WITH NLY BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH LOWER PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE VARYING DEGREES OF ONSHORE FLOW EACH
DAY. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE. WEAKER ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF OF JUAN DE
FUCA.


&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KSEW 301055
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
355 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER THE INTERIOR.
NORTHERLY WINDS RIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE HAS BROKEN UP THE LOW CLOUDS
ALONG THE NORTH COAST WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF THE LOW
CLOUDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM RANGED FROM NEAR 50 AT FORKS AND FRIDAY HARBOR
TO THE MID 60S IN THE SEATTLE METRO AREA.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS IN THE MID 580 DMS. THERE WAS A
LITTLE SURGE OF MARINE AIR INTO THE INTERIOR LAST NIGHT WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. EVEN THROUGH THE STRATUS
DID NOT MAKE IT DOWN THE STRAIT OR MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN SHELTON
DEW POINTS THIS MORNING ARE 2 TO 6 DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT
OVER THE INTERIOR. MODEL 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TOUCH COOLER
TODAY VERSUS THE LAST TWO DAYS. ADD THIS TO THE WEAK MARINE AIR
INTRUSION WILL GO FOR A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING FOR THE HIGHS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY. MID 70S TO UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR THE STRAIT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

PRETTY MUCH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE
LOW CLOUDS FORMING ALONG THE COAST IN THE EVENING PUSHING INLAND
DOWN THE STRAIT AND THROUGH THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY INTO THE VERY
SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OFT HE PUGET SOUND IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
EACH DAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW WITH THE STRATUS BURNING
BACK TO THE COAST EACH MORNING. HIGHS ALONG THE COAST AND STRAIT
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH HIGHS IN THE INTERIOR
IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S.

A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THE PERSISTENCE FORECAST IS OVER THE CENTRAL
WASHINGTON CASCADES. 00Z MODEL RUNS SHOW THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES. MONSOON MOISTURE
ROTATING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE  HAS
RESULTED IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS NEAR AS THE OREGON CASCADES
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. EVEN WITH THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
THE 00Z MODEL RUNS DO NOT HAVE ANY CONVECTION ON THIS SIDE OF THE
CASCADES THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST UNCHANGED.

.LONG TERM...ALL OF THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOWING A VERY WEAK FEATURE
MOVING UP OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON ON SATURDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS FEATURE COULD CAUSE WOULD BE AN INCREASE
IN THE CONVECTION OVER THE CASCADES. THE GFS SHOWS A LITTLE
SOMETHING OVER THE NORTH CASCADES ON SATURDAY WHILE THE REST OF THE
MODELS KEEP THE ACTIVITY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. CURRENT
FORECAST JUST SHOWS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS THIS IS A GOOD WAY TO
GO AT THIS POINT. SOME MORE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL ON SUNDAY WITH
THE GFS AND CANADIAN KEEPING THE WEAK FEATURE IN THE AREA WHICH
WOULD KEEP A CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE ECMWF HAS
THE FEATURE FURTHER EAST. GFS MAINTAINS SOME WEAK TROUGHINESS INTO
MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF TURNS THE FLOW ALOFT WESTERLY. CURRENT
FORECAST JUST HAS INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON. WILL STAY WITH THIS IDEA FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LOWLANDS. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE A
LITTLE LOWER...IN THE LOWER 580 DMS AND ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE A
LITTLE STRONGER FOR A CHANCE OF THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS GETTING
FURTHER INLAND BUT THE ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE STRATUS FROM BURNING BACK TO THE COAST EACH DAY. 00Z RUNS
MAX TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER VERSUS THE RUNS
YESTERDAY MORNING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES LOOK FOR THE MAX TEMPS TO
BE KNOCKED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND. EVEN WITH THE
COOLER MAX TEMPERATURES HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE NEAR TO A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE INTERIOR...MID 70S TO MID 80S...THE
COAST AND STRAIT WILL REMAIN NEAR 70 FOR HIGHS EACH DAY. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH SW
FLOW ALOFT OVER WA. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE AIR IS DRY AND
STABLE EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...MAINLY COAST AND
STRAIT. OTHERWISE...MORE SUNNY WEATHER ON TAP TODAY.

KSEA...CLEAR WITH NLY BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH LOWER PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE VARYING DEGREES OF ONSHORE FLOW EACH
DAY. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE. WEAKER ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF OF JUAN DE
FUCA.


&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KPQR 301006
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
305 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF
THE  WEST COAST OF CANADA LEAVING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES BRINGS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY LANE COUNTY.
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM IDAHO TO ARIZONA WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE B.C. COAST. THE
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  AS A RESULT
VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPS
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE COASTAL
AREAS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH THE STRONG INFLUENCE OF THE MARINE
LAYER.

THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE OREGON CASCADES WILL VARY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OCCUR OVER.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS MOISTURE IS LACKING AND
INSTABILITY BELOW 500 MB IS LOW. THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES APPEAR TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS VORT
MAX CLIPS THE AREA.  BETTER CHANCES FOR THU/THU NIGHT AS THE REMNANT
MOISTURE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN LIFT NORTH AND POSSIBLY
COMBINE WITH ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. NAM VERTICAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN MORE INLINE WITH OBSERVATIONS
SO WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS HIGH MOISTURE VALUES. THE HIGH OREGON
CASCADES ARE THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO GET THE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS FURTHER WEST COULD BE AFFECTED IF
THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL IN SOME SE FLOW ALOFT.
FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE
CREST OF THE OREGON CASCADES THU/THU NIGHT.  SIMILAR THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON CASCADES RETURN FRI AFTERNOON. WEAGLE/MH

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS ON THE WEST
SIDE OF  AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE UP THIS RIDGE AND BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE WILL STAY
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL KEEP HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNTIL
THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EITHER BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
-MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG REMAINING ALONG THE COASTLINE WITH IFR
AND LOCAL LIFR PERSISTING THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS
STRATUS LOOKS TO CONTINUE PUSHING UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA...WITH
CIGS AROUND 1000 FT MAKING IT TO KKLS. EXPECT THIS PUSH TO
CONTINUE TOWARDS THE PORTLAND METRO TERMINALS...WITH CIGS LIKELY
FORMING AT KSPB BUT STILL LESS CONFIDENCE THAT PUSH WILL MAKE IT
TO KPDX OR KTTD. ANY STRATUS INLAND SHOULD CLEAR BY 17Z
TODAY...WITH THE COASTAL AREAS IMPROVING TO VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. STRATUS MAY MAKE A RETURN TO THE COAST THIS
EVENING...THOUGH PERHAPS NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z NEAR KAST. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. LOW
MVFR TO HIGH IFR STRATUS MAY APPROACH THE TERMINAL FROM THE W AFT
12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW. ANY CIGS THAT DO FORM
SHOULD CLEAR BY 16Z WITH VFR THEREAFTER.  CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY AS HIGH PRES
IS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE NE PAC. MEANWHILE...THE THERMAL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER N CALIFORNIA AND WILL RISE SLIGHTLY N IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
A BIT OVER THE OREGON WATERS WITH GUSTIER WINDS...TO AROUND 25 KT
AT TIMES. ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND NORTHERN INNER WATERS... WITH STRONGEST WINDS MOSTLY S
OF TILLAMOOK.

SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO PRIMARILY BE A MIXTURE OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL...AND INDISTINGUISHABLE AT TIMES...SO CONTINUED TO
COMBINE THE SEAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS WILL REMAIN
STEEP AND IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEK...THROUGH COULD
INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 7 FT AT TIMES WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. SEAS
WILL BE STEEPEST WHEN THE WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST...DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...PARTICULARLY S OF TILLAMOOK AND
NEAR SHORE. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM AND COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE
     HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 301006
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
305 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF
THE  WEST COAST OF CANADA LEAVING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES BRINGS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY LANE COUNTY.
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM IDAHO TO ARIZONA WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE B.C. COAST. THE
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  AS A RESULT
VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPS
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE COASTAL
AREAS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH THE STRONG INFLUENCE OF THE MARINE
LAYER.

THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE OREGON CASCADES WILL VARY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OCCUR OVER.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS MOISTURE IS LACKING AND
INSTABILITY BELOW 500 MB IS LOW. THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES APPEAR TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS VORT
MAX CLIPS THE AREA.  BETTER CHANCES FOR THU/THU NIGHT AS THE REMNANT
MOISTURE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN LIFT NORTH AND POSSIBLY
COMBINE WITH ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. NAM VERTICAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN MORE INLINE WITH OBSERVATIONS
SO WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS HIGH MOISTURE VALUES. THE HIGH OREGON
CASCADES ARE THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO GET THE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS FURTHER WEST COULD BE AFFECTED IF
THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL IN SOME SE FLOW ALOFT.
FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE
CREST OF THE OREGON CASCADES THU/THU NIGHT.  SIMILAR THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON CASCADES RETURN FRI AFTERNOON. WEAGLE/MH

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS ON THE WEST
SIDE OF  AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE UP THIS RIDGE AND BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE WILL STAY
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL KEEP HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNTIL
THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EITHER BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
-MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG REMAINING ALONG THE COASTLINE WITH IFR
AND LOCAL LIFR PERSISTING THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS
STRATUS LOOKS TO CONTINUE PUSHING UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA...WITH
CIGS AROUND 1000 FT MAKING IT TO KKLS. EXPECT THIS PUSH TO
CONTINUE TOWARDS THE PORTLAND METRO TERMINALS...WITH CIGS LIKELY
FORMING AT KSPB BUT STILL LESS CONFIDENCE THAT PUSH WILL MAKE IT
TO KPDX OR KTTD. ANY STRATUS INLAND SHOULD CLEAR BY 17Z
TODAY...WITH THE COASTAL AREAS IMPROVING TO VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. STRATUS MAY MAKE A RETURN TO THE COAST THIS
EVENING...THOUGH PERHAPS NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z NEAR KAST. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. LOW
MVFR TO HIGH IFR STRATUS MAY APPROACH THE TERMINAL FROM THE W AFT
12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW. ANY CIGS THAT DO FORM
SHOULD CLEAR BY 16Z WITH VFR THEREAFTER.  CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY AS HIGH PRES
IS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE NE PAC. MEANWHILE...THE THERMAL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER N CALIFORNIA AND WILL RISE SLIGHTLY N IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
A BIT OVER THE OREGON WATERS WITH GUSTIER WINDS...TO AROUND 25 KT
AT TIMES. ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND NORTHERN INNER WATERS... WITH STRONGEST WINDS MOSTLY S
OF TILLAMOOK.

SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO PRIMARILY BE A MIXTURE OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL...AND INDISTINGUISHABLE AT TIMES...SO CONTINUED TO
COMBINE THE SEAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS WILL REMAIN
STEEP AND IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEK...THROUGH COULD
INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 7 FT AT TIMES WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. SEAS
WILL BE STEEPEST WHEN THE WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST...DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...PARTICULARLY S OF TILLAMOOK AND
NEAR SHORE. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM AND COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE
     HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 301006
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
305 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF
THE  WEST COAST OF CANADA LEAVING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES BRINGS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY LANE COUNTY.
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM IDAHO TO ARIZONA WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE B.C. COAST. THE
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  AS A RESULT
VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPS
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE COASTAL
AREAS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH THE STRONG INFLUENCE OF THE MARINE
LAYER.

THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE OREGON CASCADES WILL VARY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OCCUR OVER.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS MOISTURE IS LACKING AND
INSTABILITY BELOW 500 MB IS LOW. THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES APPEAR TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS VORT
MAX CLIPS THE AREA.  BETTER CHANCES FOR THU/THU NIGHT AS THE REMNANT
MOISTURE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN LIFT NORTH AND POSSIBLY
COMBINE WITH ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. NAM VERTICAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN MORE INLINE WITH OBSERVATIONS
SO WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS HIGH MOISTURE VALUES. THE HIGH OREGON
CASCADES ARE THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO GET THE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS FURTHER WEST COULD BE AFFECTED IF
THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL IN SOME SE FLOW ALOFT.
FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE
CREST OF THE OREGON CASCADES THU/THU NIGHT.  SIMILAR THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON CASCADES RETURN FRI AFTERNOON. WEAGLE/MH

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS ON THE WEST
SIDE OF  AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE UP THIS RIDGE AND BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE WILL STAY
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL KEEP HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNTIL
THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EITHER BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
-MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG REMAINING ALONG THE COASTLINE WITH IFR
AND LOCAL LIFR PERSISTING THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS
STRATUS LOOKS TO CONTINUE PUSHING UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA...WITH
CIGS AROUND 1000 FT MAKING IT TO KKLS. EXPECT THIS PUSH TO
CONTINUE TOWARDS THE PORTLAND METRO TERMINALS...WITH CIGS LIKELY
FORMING AT KSPB BUT STILL LESS CONFIDENCE THAT PUSH WILL MAKE IT
TO KPDX OR KTTD. ANY STRATUS INLAND SHOULD CLEAR BY 17Z
TODAY...WITH THE COASTAL AREAS IMPROVING TO VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. STRATUS MAY MAKE A RETURN TO THE COAST THIS
EVENING...THOUGH PERHAPS NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z NEAR KAST. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. LOW
MVFR TO HIGH IFR STRATUS MAY APPROACH THE TERMINAL FROM THE W AFT
12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW. ANY CIGS THAT DO FORM
SHOULD CLEAR BY 16Z WITH VFR THEREAFTER.  CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY AS HIGH PRES
IS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE NE PAC. MEANWHILE...THE THERMAL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER N CALIFORNIA AND WILL RISE SLIGHTLY N IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
A BIT OVER THE OREGON WATERS WITH GUSTIER WINDS...TO AROUND 25 KT
AT TIMES. ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND NORTHERN INNER WATERS... WITH STRONGEST WINDS MOSTLY S
OF TILLAMOOK.

SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO PRIMARILY BE A MIXTURE OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL...AND INDISTINGUISHABLE AT TIMES...SO CONTINUED TO
COMBINE THE SEAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS WILL REMAIN
STEEP AND IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEK...THROUGH COULD
INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 7 FT AT TIMES WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. SEAS
WILL BE STEEPEST WHEN THE WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST...DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...PARTICULARLY S OF TILLAMOOK AND
NEAR SHORE. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM AND COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE
     HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 301006
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
305 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF
THE  WEST COAST OF CANADA LEAVING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES BRINGS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY LANE COUNTY.
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM IDAHO TO ARIZONA WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE B.C. COAST. THE
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  AS A RESULT
VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPS
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE COASTAL
AREAS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH THE STRONG INFLUENCE OF THE MARINE
LAYER.

THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE OREGON CASCADES WILL VARY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OCCUR OVER.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS MOISTURE IS LACKING AND
INSTABILITY BELOW 500 MB IS LOW. THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES APPEAR TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS VORT
MAX CLIPS THE AREA.  BETTER CHANCES FOR THU/THU NIGHT AS THE REMNANT
MOISTURE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN LIFT NORTH AND POSSIBLY
COMBINE WITH ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. NAM VERTICAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN MORE INLINE WITH OBSERVATIONS
SO WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS HIGH MOISTURE VALUES. THE HIGH OREGON
CASCADES ARE THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO GET THE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS FURTHER WEST COULD BE AFFECTED IF
THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL IN SOME SE FLOW ALOFT.
FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE
CREST OF THE OREGON CASCADES THU/THU NIGHT.  SIMILAR THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON CASCADES RETURN FRI AFTERNOON. WEAGLE/MH

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS ON THE WEST
SIDE OF  AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE UP THIS RIDGE AND BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE WILL STAY
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL KEEP HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNTIL
THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EITHER BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
-MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG REMAINING ALONG THE COASTLINE WITH IFR
AND LOCAL LIFR PERSISTING THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS
STRATUS LOOKS TO CONTINUE PUSHING UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA...WITH
CIGS AROUND 1000 FT MAKING IT TO KKLS. EXPECT THIS PUSH TO
CONTINUE TOWARDS THE PORTLAND METRO TERMINALS...WITH CIGS LIKELY
FORMING AT KSPB BUT STILL LESS CONFIDENCE THAT PUSH WILL MAKE IT
TO KPDX OR KTTD. ANY STRATUS INLAND SHOULD CLEAR BY 17Z
TODAY...WITH THE COASTAL AREAS IMPROVING TO VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. STRATUS MAY MAKE A RETURN TO THE COAST THIS
EVENING...THOUGH PERHAPS NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z NEAR KAST. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. LOW
MVFR TO HIGH IFR STRATUS MAY APPROACH THE TERMINAL FROM THE W AFT
12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW. ANY CIGS THAT DO FORM
SHOULD CLEAR BY 16Z WITH VFR THEREAFTER.  CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY AS HIGH PRES
IS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE NE PAC. MEANWHILE...THE THERMAL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER N CALIFORNIA AND WILL RISE SLIGHTLY N IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
A BIT OVER THE OREGON WATERS WITH GUSTIER WINDS...TO AROUND 25 KT
AT TIMES. ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND NORTHERN INNER WATERS... WITH STRONGEST WINDS MOSTLY S
OF TILLAMOOK.

SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO PRIMARILY BE A MIXTURE OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL...AND INDISTINGUISHABLE AT TIMES...SO CONTINUED TO
COMBINE THE SEAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS WILL REMAIN
STEEP AND IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEK...THROUGH COULD
INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 7 FT AT TIMES WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. SEAS
WILL BE STEEPEST WHEN THE WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST...DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...PARTICULARLY S OF TILLAMOOK AND
NEAR SHORE. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM AND COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE
     HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 300920
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
220 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny and hot weather will continue over the Inland Northwest
through at least Friday. A gradual increase in clouds over the
next few days may knock temperatures down a few degrees, but mid
90s to low 100s will be common through the work week. The threat
for thunderstorms should increase over the weekend which may
knock temperatures down a bit more.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...The ridge of high pressure will remain
fixed over the region keeping temperatures well above normal. Dry
conditions will prevail for much of the forecast area but isolated
showers and thunderstorms will be possible for some of the higher
terrain today and Thursday. We did see a couple convective cells
pop up over the North Cascades Tuesday and since there will be a
bit stronger impulse brushing the area today, isolated TS were
added to the forecast there. The better (but still low) chance of
showers and thunderstorms will be across the southeast zones where
monsoonal moisture will push up from the south. Satellite imagery
at 2 am PDT shows this moisture headed our way and models are
showing a better, but still modest, surge for Thursday. Convective
parameters are not impressive but definitely worth a slight chance
of thunder in the forecast. One question mark is the moisture from
the remnants of a tropical system that is streaming into soCal but
models are keeping this well to our south around Nevada. The
increased cloud cover will work to keep daytime temperatures a
couple of degrees cooler than Tuesday, but not much more than
that. The heat will continue on Thursday with valley temps in the
mid 90s to low triple digits. Overnight lows will remain quite
warm, mainly in the 60s, with poor RH recovery, especially for the
mid-slope locations. /Kelch

Thursday night through Tuesday...An Omega blocking pattern will be
over North America through Tuesday. Deep upper lows will be in the
eastern Pacific and another near Hudson bay...with a mean ridge of
high pressure in between. The ridge axis is expected to move far
enough east over the next 24-36 hours for southwest flow to
develop across the Pacific Northwest, this will allow moisture to
move up from the south and southwest. In addition there will be a
series of weak weather disturbances moving trough the region.
While this flow pattern will result in a slight cool down in
temperatures, daily highs will remain 5-10 degrees above seasonal
averages. Moisture advection into the region will help to further
destabilize the atmosphere and in combination with the forcing
provided by the weak disturbances there will be a chance late day
convection each day. This convection will be mainly tied to the
mountain terrain each afternoon, but in reality an afternoon
thunderstorm will be possible anywhere in the forecast area.
/Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Scattered mid/high level clouds will continue to
overspread most sites through the period. However, little to no
precipitation is expected with this cloud cover. ty


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        97  67  96  67  94  65 /   0  10  10   0  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  95  62  94  61  93  62 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        95  56  94  59  92  57 /  10  10  10  10  10  20
Lewiston      102  70 101  71  99  68 /  10  10  10  10  20  20
Colville      102  57 101  58  97  59 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      93  54  92  54  90  56 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        93  61  93  61  91  62 /  10  10  20  10  10  20
Moses Lake    102  64 101  64  99  64 /  10   0   0  10  10  10
Wenatchee     100  71 100  71  98  71 /  10   0   0  10  10  10
Omak          102  65 100  65 100  68 /   0   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 300920
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
220 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny and hot weather will continue over the Inland Northwest
through at least Friday. A gradual increase in clouds over the
next few days may knock temperatures down a few degrees, but mid
90s to low 100s will be common through the work week. The threat
for thunderstorms should increase over the weekend which may
knock temperatures down a bit more.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...The ridge of high pressure will remain
fixed over the region keeping temperatures well above normal. Dry
conditions will prevail for much of the forecast area but isolated
showers and thunderstorms will be possible for some of the higher
terrain today and Thursday. We did see a couple convective cells
pop up over the North Cascades Tuesday and since there will be a
bit stronger impulse brushing the area today, isolated TS were
added to the forecast there. The better (but still low) chance of
showers and thunderstorms will be across the southeast zones where
monsoonal moisture will push up from the south. Satellite imagery
at 2 am PDT shows this moisture headed our way and models are
showing a better, but still modest, surge for Thursday. Convective
parameters are not impressive but definitely worth a slight chance
of thunder in the forecast. One question mark is the moisture from
the remnants of a tropical system that is streaming into soCal but
models are keeping this well to our south around Nevada. The
increased cloud cover will work to keep daytime temperatures a
couple of degrees cooler than Tuesday, but not much more than
that. The heat will continue on Thursday with valley temps in the
mid 90s to low triple digits. Overnight lows will remain quite
warm, mainly in the 60s, with poor RH recovery, especially for the
mid-slope locations. /Kelch

Thursday night through Tuesday...An Omega blocking pattern will be
over North America through Tuesday. Deep upper lows will be in the
eastern Pacific and another near Hudson bay...with a mean ridge of
high pressure in between. The ridge axis is expected to move far
enough east over the next 24-36 hours for southwest flow to
develop across the Pacific Northwest, this will allow moisture to
move up from the south and southwest. In addition there will be a
series of weak weather disturbances moving trough the region.
While this flow pattern will result in a slight cool down in
temperatures, daily highs will remain 5-10 degrees above seasonal
averages. Moisture advection into the region will help to further
destabilize the atmosphere and in combination with the forcing
provided by the weak disturbances there will be a chance late day
convection each day. This convection will be mainly tied to the
mountain terrain each afternoon, but in reality an afternoon
thunderstorm will be possible anywhere in the forecast area.
/Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Scattered mid/high level clouds will continue to
overspread most sites through the period. However, little to no
precipitation is expected with this cloud cover. ty


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        97  67  96  67  94  65 /   0  10  10   0  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  95  62  94  61  93  62 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        95  56  94  59  92  57 /  10  10  10  10  10  20
Lewiston      102  70 101  71  99  68 /  10  10  10  10  20  20
Colville      102  57 101  58  97  59 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      93  54  92  54  90  56 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        93  61  93  61  91  62 /  10  10  20  10  10  20
Moses Lake    102  64 101  64  99  64 /  10   0   0  10  10  10
Wenatchee     100  71 100  71  98  71 /  10   0   0  10  10  10
Omak          102  65 100  65 100  68 /   0   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 300920
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
220 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny and hot weather will continue over the Inland Northwest
through at least Friday. A gradual increase in clouds over the
next few days may knock temperatures down a few degrees, but mid
90s to low 100s will be common through the work week. The threat
for thunderstorms should increase over the weekend which may
knock temperatures down a bit more.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...The ridge of high pressure will remain
fixed over the region keeping temperatures well above normal. Dry
conditions will prevail for much of the forecast area but isolated
showers and thunderstorms will be possible for some of the higher
terrain today and Thursday. We did see a couple convective cells
pop up over the North Cascades Tuesday and since there will be a
bit stronger impulse brushing the area today, isolated TS were
added to the forecast there. The better (but still low) chance of
showers and thunderstorms will be across the southeast zones where
monsoonal moisture will push up from the south. Satellite imagery
at 2 am PDT shows this moisture headed our way and models are
showing a better, but still modest, surge for Thursday. Convective
parameters are not impressive but definitely worth a slight chance
of thunder in the forecast. One question mark is the moisture from
the remnants of a tropical system that is streaming into soCal but
models are keeping this well to our south around Nevada. The
increased cloud cover will work to keep daytime temperatures a
couple of degrees cooler than Tuesday, but not much more than
that. The heat will continue on Thursday with valley temps in the
mid 90s to low triple digits. Overnight lows will remain quite
warm, mainly in the 60s, with poor RH recovery, especially for the
mid-slope locations. /Kelch

Thursday night through Tuesday...An Omega blocking pattern will be
over North America through Tuesday. Deep upper lows will be in the
eastern Pacific and another near Hudson bay...with a mean ridge of
high pressure in between. The ridge axis is expected to move far
enough east over the next 24-36 hours for southwest flow to
develop across the Pacific Northwest, this will allow moisture to
move up from the south and southwest. In addition there will be a
series of weak weather disturbances moving trough the region.
While this flow pattern will result in a slight cool down in
temperatures, daily highs will remain 5-10 degrees above seasonal
averages. Moisture advection into the region will help to further
destabilize the atmosphere and in combination with the forcing
provided by the weak disturbances there will be a chance late day
convection each day. This convection will be mainly tied to the
mountain terrain each afternoon, but in reality an afternoon
thunderstorm will be possible anywhere in the forecast area.
/Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Scattered mid/high level clouds will continue to
overspread most sites through the period. However, little to no
precipitation is expected with this cloud cover. ty


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        97  67  96  67  94  65 /   0  10  10   0  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  95  62  94  61  93  62 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        95  56  94  59  92  57 /  10  10  10  10  10  20
Lewiston      102  70 101  71  99  68 /  10  10  10  10  20  20
Colville      102  57 101  58  97  59 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      93  54  92  54  90  56 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        93  61  93  61  91  62 /  10  10  20  10  10  20
Moses Lake    102  64 101  64  99  64 /  10   0   0  10  10  10
Wenatchee     100  71 100  71  98  71 /  10   0   0  10  10  10
Omak          102  65 100  65 100  68 /   0   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 300920
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
220 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny and hot weather will continue over the Inland Northwest
through at least Friday. A gradual increase in clouds over the
next few days may knock temperatures down a few degrees, but mid
90s to low 100s will be common through the work week. The threat
for thunderstorms should increase over the weekend which may
knock temperatures down a bit more.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday...The ridge of high pressure will remain
fixed over the region keeping temperatures well above normal. Dry
conditions will prevail for much of the forecast area but isolated
showers and thunderstorms will be possible for some of the higher
terrain today and Thursday. We did see a couple convective cells
pop up over the North Cascades Tuesday and since there will be a
bit stronger impulse brushing the area today, isolated TS were
added to the forecast there. The better (but still low) chance of
showers and thunderstorms will be across the southeast zones where
monsoonal moisture will push up from the south. Satellite imagery
at 2 am PDT shows this moisture headed our way and models are
showing a better, but still modest, surge for Thursday. Convective
parameters are not impressive but definitely worth a slight chance
of thunder in the forecast. One question mark is the moisture from
the remnants of a tropical system that is streaming into soCal but
models are keeping this well to our south around Nevada. The
increased cloud cover will work to keep daytime temperatures a
couple of degrees cooler than Tuesday, but not much more than
that. The heat will continue on Thursday with valley temps in the
mid 90s to low triple digits. Overnight lows will remain quite
warm, mainly in the 60s, with poor RH recovery, especially for the
mid-slope locations. /Kelch

Thursday night through Tuesday...An Omega blocking pattern will be
over North America through Tuesday. Deep upper lows will be in the
eastern Pacific and another near Hudson bay...with a mean ridge of
high pressure in between. The ridge axis is expected to move far
enough east over the next 24-36 hours for southwest flow to
develop across the Pacific Northwest, this will allow moisture to
move up from the south and southwest. In addition there will be a
series of weak weather disturbances moving trough the region.
While this flow pattern will result in a slight cool down in
temperatures, daily highs will remain 5-10 degrees above seasonal
averages. Moisture advection into the region will help to further
destabilize the atmosphere and in combination with the forcing
provided by the weak disturbances there will be a chance late day
convection each day. This convection will be mainly tied to the
mountain terrain each afternoon, but in reality an afternoon
thunderstorm will be possible anywhere in the forecast area.
/Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Scattered mid/high level clouds will continue to
overspread most sites through the period. However, little to no
precipitation is expected with this cloud cover. ty


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        97  67  96  67  94  65 /   0  10  10   0  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  95  62  94  61  93  62 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        95  56  94  59  92  57 /  10  10  10  10  10  20
Lewiston      102  70 101  71  99  68 /  10  10  10  10  20  20
Colville      102  57 101  58  97  59 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      93  54  92  54  90  56 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        93  61  93  61  91  62 /  10  10  20  10  10  20
Moses Lake    102  64 101  64  99  64 /  10   0   0  10  10  10
Wenatchee     100  71 100  71  98  71 /  10   0   0  10  10  10
Omak          102  65 100  65 100  68 /   0   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 300555
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1054 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny and hot weather will continue over the Inland Northwest
through at least Friday. A gradual increase in clouds over the
next few days may knock temperatures down a few degrees, but mid
90s to low 100s will be common through the work week. The threat
for thunderstorms should increase over the weekend which may
knock temperatures down a bit more.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms that had developed over some of the
higher terrain this evening has since dissipated with the loss of
daytime heating. There is a weak disturbance that is lifting
north through Oregon, which is mainly spreading mid-level cloud
cover into the region. Not expecting any precipitation with this
feature, but the increased cloud cover will keep low temperatures
in check. Went ahead and nudged readings upwards a degree or so
over many areas, but otherwise the previous forecast had this all
well handled. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Scattered mid/high level clouds will continue to
overspread most sites through the period. However, little to no
precipitation is expected with this cloud cover. ty

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        69  97  68  96  67  93 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  63  95  63  94  62  92 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        59  95  58  94  59  91 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       72 102  71 101  71  98 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Colville       60 102  58 101  59  97 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      56  93  55  92  54  91 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        63  93  61  93  62  90 /   0  10  20  10  10  10
Moses Lake     66 102  64 101  65  99 /   0  10   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      73 100  70 100  72  99 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           68 101  65 100  66  99 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 300555
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1054 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny and hot weather will continue over the Inland Northwest
through at least Friday. A gradual increase in clouds over the
next few days may knock temperatures down a few degrees, but mid
90s to low 100s will be common through the work week. The threat
for thunderstorms should increase over the weekend which may
knock temperatures down a bit more.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms that had developed over some of the
higher terrain this evening has since dissipated with the loss of
daytime heating. There is a weak disturbance that is lifting
north through Oregon, which is mainly spreading mid-level cloud
cover into the region. Not expecting any precipitation with this
feature, but the increased cloud cover will keep low temperatures
in check. Went ahead and nudged readings upwards a degree or so
over many areas, but otherwise the previous forecast had this all
well handled. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Scattered mid/high level clouds will continue to
overspread most sites through the period. However, little to no
precipitation is expected with this cloud cover. ty

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        69  97  68  96  67  93 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  63  95  63  94  62  92 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        59  95  58  94  59  91 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       72 102  71 101  71  98 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Colville       60 102  58 101  59  97 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      56  93  55  92  54  91 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        63  93  61  93  62  90 /   0  10  20  10  10  10
Moses Lake     66 102  64 101  65  99 /   0  10   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      73 100  70 100  72  99 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           68 101  65 100  66  99 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 300446
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
945 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny and hot weather will continue over the Inland Northwest
through at least Friday. A gradual increase in clouds over the
next few days may knock temperatures down a few degrees, but mid
90s to low 100s will be common through the work week. The threat
for thunderstorms should increase over the weekend which may
knock temperatures down a bit more.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms that had developed over some of the
higher terrain this evening has since dissipated with the loss of
daytime heating. There is a weak disturbance that is lifting
north through Oregon, which is mainly spreading mid-level cloud
cover into the region. Not expecting any precipitation with this
feature, but the increased cloud cover will keep low temperatures
in check. Went ahead and nudged readings upwards a degree or so
over many areas, but otherwise the previous forecast had this all
well handled. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at all forecast sites during
this period as strong ridge remains over the region. A weak
disturbance moving across the OR/WA border after 12z will deliver
increasing mid and high level clouds to all sites...but little
else. ty

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        69  97  68  96  67  93 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  63  95  63  94  62  92 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        59  95  58  94  59  91 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       72 102  71 101  71  98 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Colville       60 102  58 101  59  97 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      56  93  55  92  54  91 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        63  93  61  93  62  90 /   0  10  20  10  10  10
Moses Lake     66 102  64 101  65  99 /   0  10   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      73 100  70 100  72  99 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           68 101  65 100  66  99 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 300446
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
945 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny and hot weather will continue over the Inland Northwest
through at least Friday. A gradual increase in clouds over the
next few days may knock temperatures down a few degrees, but mid
90s to low 100s will be common through the work week. The threat
for thunderstorms should increase over the weekend which may
knock temperatures down a bit more.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms that had developed over some of the
higher terrain this evening has since dissipated with the loss of
daytime heating. There is a weak disturbance that is lifting
north through Oregon, which is mainly spreading mid-level cloud
cover into the region. Not expecting any precipitation with this
feature, but the increased cloud cover will keep low temperatures
in check. Went ahead and nudged readings upwards a degree or so
over many areas, but otherwise the previous forecast had this all
well handled. ty

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at all forecast sites during
this period as strong ridge remains over the region. A weak
disturbance moving across the OR/WA border after 12z will deliver
increasing mid and high level clouds to all sites...but little
else. ty

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        69  97  68  96  67  93 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  63  95  63  94  62  92 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        59  95  58  94  59  91 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       72 102  71 101  71  98 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Colville       60 102  58 101  59  97 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      56  93  55  92  54  91 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        63  93  61  93  62  90 /   0  10  20  10  10  10
Moses Lake     66 102  64 101  65  99 /   0  10   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      73 100  70 100  72  99 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           68 101  65 100  66  99 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 300356
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
856 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA LEAVING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES
BRINGS VERY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY LANE COUNTY.
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.UPDATE...THE BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS DRIFTED EAST OF THE
CASCADE CREST AS THE AXIS FROM THE WEAK SHORTWAVE DESCRIBED BELOW
HAS LARGELY CROSSED THE CREST. ADD IN THE PREDOMINANT DRY AIR BEHIND
THE WAVE AND IT LOOKS LIKE CONCERN FOR OUR SIDE HAS ENDED. STILL
MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING...HOWEVER...AS IT APPEARS A FINAL ROUND OF DEVELOPMENT
COULD CLIP THE WILLAMETTE PASS AREA UNDER A STRONG STORM LEFT MOVER
SCENARIO DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...AM SEEING A
STRONGER MARINE PUSH THIS EVENING NOTED BY TEMPERATURES AT KELSO AND
CORVALLIS AIRPORTS LOWERING NEAR TO THE 70 DEGREE MARK ALREADY. THUS
HAVE PRETTY GOOD CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME STRATUS PUSH
UP THE COLUMBIA LIKELY REACHING THE PORTLAND METRO BY OR SLIGHTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE HANDLED THIS PRETTY WELL.
IN ALL...THE GRID PACKAGE IS IN VERY REASONABLE SHAPE WITH MINIMAL
CHANGES REQUIRED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. /JBONK

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 246 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONE
PARTICULARLY LARGE CELL WHICH WAS WARNED ON NEAR MCKENZIE PASS.
RADAR HAIL SIZE ESTIMATES MAXED OUT AT 1.75 INCHES...APPROACHING
PING PONG BALL SIZE...THOUGH ACTUAL HAIL SIZE WAS LIKELY A BIT LOWER
THAN THAT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REALLY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
THIS STORM APPEARS TO HAVE FED A BIT OFF OF CONVERGING UPSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AS IT DRIFTED NORTHWARD. PERHAPS ONE OR TWO
MORE STRONG CELLS COULD DEVELOP SIMILARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE
ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THIS TO BE A WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE.

ANOTHER DRIVER FOR THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WAS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE AND JET MAX PUSHING INTO THE OREGON CASCADES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ALSO MAY HAVE HELPED PUSH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
CELL TO SEVERE LIMITS. AS THE JET MAX MOVES ON AND THE SUN GOES DOWN
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING.

FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE MAIN STORY IS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER INLAND. TEMPS ARE APPROACHING OR
HAVE ALREADY SURPASSED 90 DEGREES AT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS AS OF 2
PM. WHILE TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF NICELY INTO THE 50S IN THE OUTLYING
VALLEYS...URBAN AREAS AND EXPOSED HILLSIDES HAVE SEEN LESS RELIEF
WITH TEMPS ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 60S. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ONLY GRADUALLY
WEAKENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. COASTAL AREAS WILL
REMAIN COOLER AS A WEAK ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW CONTINUES.

RISK FOR THUNDER DECREASES TEMPORARILY WEDNESDAY AS MOST MODELS
DEPICT WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE REGION. STILL CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT THUNDER ON THE CREST AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN DECENT.
MOISTURE APPEARS LESS ABUNDANT THOUGH...AND AGAIN THERE SHOULD BE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING. CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THU/THU
NIGHT AS THE REMNANT MOISTURE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN LIFT
NORTH AND POSSIBLY COMBINE WITH ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES PRESENTLY
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEYOND 130W. FOR NOW...MOST MODELS SUGGEST
THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE ARE TARGETING AREAS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST
AND POINTS EAST. HOWEVER IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS FURTHER
WEST COULD BE AFFECTED IF THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL
IN SOME SE FLOW ALOFT. FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE
CREST OF THE OREGON CASCADES THU/THU NIGHT.  WEAGLE

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE UP THIS RIDGE AND BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE WILL STAY ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST.THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
KEEP HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNTIL THIS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE EITHER BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE COASTLINE
WITH IFR AND LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO WED
MORNING. WITH NW FLOW IN PLACE...EXPECT THE COASTAL STRATUS TO
PUSH PARTIALLY UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA OVERNIGHT. THE STRATUS WILL
LIKELY MAKE IT TO KSPB...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT CLOUDS WILL
REACH AS FAR AS KPDX AND KTTD. THE OTHER INLAND AIRPORTS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH TOMORROW. ANY INLAND STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR BY
ABOUT 16Z TOMORROW. EXPECT THE COAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. STRATUS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE
COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS TOMORROW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW
MVFR OR IFR STRATUS MAY APPROACH THE TERMINAL FROM THE WEST AFTER
12Z...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY 16Z. PYLE

&&

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED MOSTLY JUST SHORT-TERM WINDS FOR THE EVENING
PACKAGE TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBS. WITH BUOY 50 GUSTING TO
ONLY 10-15 KT...WILL CANCEL SCA FOR OFFSHORE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS....BUT WILL LET NEAR SHORE SCA RIDE AS NOS STATIONS AT
TILLAMOOK BAY AND NEWPORT CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY GUST TO 20-30
KT. WILL LEAVE DECISIONS ABOUT SCA FOR WEDNESDAY UP TO THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT AS NEAR SHORE WINDS LOOK MARGINAL WITH OFFSHORE
WINDS INCREASING LATER IN THE PERIOD.

ONLY OTHER CHANGE IS TO SHORTEN PERIODS TO 5-6 SECONDS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON RECENT OBS FROM BUOYS 29 AND 50 AS
WELL AS LATEST GUIDANCE. THIS MEANS SEAS ARE QUITE STEEP WITH 4-5
FEET AT 5-6 SECONDS AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. LONGER TERM FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. BOWEN

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC AS A
THERMAL TROUGH HOLDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS RESULTING
IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OREGON WATERS. GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK.

THE SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL WINDS. STEEP SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
BACKGROUND LONGER PERIOD SEAS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP ON
THE BUOYS...BUT THESE ARE VERY SMALL...1 FOOT OR LESS...AND LESS
SIGNIFICANT TO THE MARINER THAN THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS. THE STEEP SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH AND HAVE
THEREFORE COMBINED THE SEAS IN THE FORECAST. THE SEAS WILL BE THE
STEEPEST WHEN THE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST...DURING THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND NEAR SHORE.
TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 300356
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
856 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA LEAVING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES
BRINGS VERY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY LANE COUNTY.
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.UPDATE...THE BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS DRIFTED EAST OF THE
CASCADE CREST AS THE AXIS FROM THE WEAK SHORTWAVE DESCRIBED BELOW
HAS LARGELY CROSSED THE CREST. ADD IN THE PREDOMINANT DRY AIR BEHIND
THE WAVE AND IT LOOKS LIKE CONCERN FOR OUR SIDE HAS ENDED. STILL
MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING...HOWEVER...AS IT APPEARS A FINAL ROUND OF DEVELOPMENT
COULD CLIP THE WILLAMETTE PASS AREA UNDER A STRONG STORM LEFT MOVER
SCENARIO DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...AM SEEING A
STRONGER MARINE PUSH THIS EVENING NOTED BY TEMPERATURES AT KELSO AND
CORVALLIS AIRPORTS LOWERING NEAR TO THE 70 DEGREE MARK ALREADY. THUS
HAVE PRETTY GOOD CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME STRATUS PUSH
UP THE COLUMBIA LIKELY REACHING THE PORTLAND METRO BY OR SLIGHTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE HANDLED THIS PRETTY WELL.
IN ALL...THE GRID PACKAGE IS IN VERY REASONABLE SHAPE WITH MINIMAL
CHANGES REQUIRED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. /JBONK

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 246 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONE
PARTICULARLY LARGE CELL WHICH WAS WARNED ON NEAR MCKENZIE PASS.
RADAR HAIL SIZE ESTIMATES MAXED OUT AT 1.75 INCHES...APPROACHING
PING PONG BALL SIZE...THOUGH ACTUAL HAIL SIZE WAS LIKELY A BIT LOWER
THAN THAT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REALLY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
THIS STORM APPEARS TO HAVE FED A BIT OFF OF CONVERGING UPSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AS IT DRIFTED NORTHWARD. PERHAPS ONE OR TWO
MORE STRONG CELLS COULD DEVELOP SIMILARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE
ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THIS TO BE A WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE.

ANOTHER DRIVER FOR THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WAS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE AND JET MAX PUSHING INTO THE OREGON CASCADES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ALSO MAY HAVE HELPED PUSH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
CELL TO SEVERE LIMITS. AS THE JET MAX MOVES ON AND THE SUN GOES DOWN
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING.

FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE MAIN STORY IS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER INLAND. TEMPS ARE APPROACHING OR
HAVE ALREADY SURPASSED 90 DEGREES AT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS AS OF 2
PM. WHILE TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF NICELY INTO THE 50S IN THE OUTLYING
VALLEYS...URBAN AREAS AND EXPOSED HILLSIDES HAVE SEEN LESS RELIEF
WITH TEMPS ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 60S. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ONLY GRADUALLY
WEAKENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. COASTAL AREAS WILL
REMAIN COOLER AS A WEAK ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW CONTINUES.

RISK FOR THUNDER DECREASES TEMPORARILY WEDNESDAY AS MOST MODELS
DEPICT WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE REGION. STILL CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT THUNDER ON THE CREST AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN DECENT.
MOISTURE APPEARS LESS ABUNDANT THOUGH...AND AGAIN THERE SHOULD BE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING. CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THU/THU
NIGHT AS THE REMNANT MOISTURE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN LIFT
NORTH AND POSSIBLY COMBINE WITH ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES PRESENTLY
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEYOND 130W. FOR NOW...MOST MODELS SUGGEST
THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE ARE TARGETING AREAS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST
AND POINTS EAST. HOWEVER IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS FURTHER
WEST COULD BE AFFECTED IF THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL
IN SOME SE FLOW ALOFT. FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE
CREST OF THE OREGON CASCADES THU/THU NIGHT.  WEAGLE

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE UP THIS RIDGE AND BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE WILL STAY ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST.THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
KEEP HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNTIL THIS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE EITHER BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE COASTLINE
WITH IFR AND LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO WED
MORNING. WITH NW FLOW IN PLACE...EXPECT THE COASTAL STRATUS TO
PUSH PARTIALLY UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA OVERNIGHT. THE STRATUS WILL
LIKELY MAKE IT TO KSPB...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT CLOUDS WILL
REACH AS FAR AS KPDX AND KTTD. THE OTHER INLAND AIRPORTS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH TOMORROW. ANY INLAND STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR BY
ABOUT 16Z TOMORROW. EXPECT THE COAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. STRATUS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE
COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS TOMORROW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW
MVFR OR IFR STRATUS MAY APPROACH THE TERMINAL FROM THE WEST AFTER
12Z...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY 16Z. PYLE

&&

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED MOSTLY JUST SHORT-TERM WINDS FOR THE EVENING
PACKAGE TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBS. WITH BUOY 50 GUSTING TO
ONLY 10-15 KT...WILL CANCEL SCA FOR OFFSHORE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS....BUT WILL LET NEAR SHORE SCA RIDE AS NOS STATIONS AT
TILLAMOOK BAY AND NEWPORT CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY GUST TO 20-30
KT. WILL LEAVE DECISIONS ABOUT SCA FOR WEDNESDAY UP TO THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT AS NEAR SHORE WINDS LOOK MARGINAL WITH OFFSHORE
WINDS INCREASING LATER IN THE PERIOD.

ONLY OTHER CHANGE IS TO SHORTEN PERIODS TO 5-6 SECONDS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON RECENT OBS FROM BUOYS 29 AND 50 AS
WELL AS LATEST GUIDANCE. THIS MEANS SEAS ARE QUITE STEEP WITH 4-5
FEET AT 5-6 SECONDS AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. LONGER TERM FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. BOWEN

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC AS A
THERMAL TROUGH HOLDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS RESULTING
IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OREGON WATERS. GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK.

THE SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL WINDS. STEEP SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
BACKGROUND LONGER PERIOD SEAS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP ON
THE BUOYS...BUT THESE ARE VERY SMALL...1 FOOT OR LESS...AND LESS
SIGNIFICANT TO THE MARINER THAN THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS. THE STEEP SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH AND HAVE
THEREFORE COMBINED THE SEAS IN THE FORECAST. THE SEAS WILL BE THE
STEEPEST WHEN THE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST...DURING THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND NEAR SHORE.
TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 300356
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
856 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA LEAVING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES
BRINGS VERY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY LANE COUNTY.
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.UPDATE...THE BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS DRIFTED EAST OF THE
CASCADE CREST AS THE AXIS FROM THE WEAK SHORTWAVE DESCRIBED BELOW
HAS LARGELY CROSSED THE CREST. ADD IN THE PREDOMINANT DRY AIR BEHIND
THE WAVE AND IT LOOKS LIKE CONCERN FOR OUR SIDE HAS ENDED. STILL
MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING...HOWEVER...AS IT APPEARS A FINAL ROUND OF DEVELOPMENT
COULD CLIP THE WILLAMETTE PASS AREA UNDER A STRONG STORM LEFT MOVER
SCENARIO DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...AM SEEING A
STRONGER MARINE PUSH THIS EVENING NOTED BY TEMPERATURES AT KELSO AND
CORVALLIS AIRPORTS LOWERING NEAR TO THE 70 DEGREE MARK ALREADY. THUS
HAVE PRETTY GOOD CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME STRATUS PUSH
UP THE COLUMBIA LIKELY REACHING THE PORTLAND METRO BY OR SLIGHTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE HANDLED THIS PRETTY WELL.
IN ALL...THE GRID PACKAGE IS IN VERY REASONABLE SHAPE WITH MINIMAL
CHANGES REQUIRED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. /JBONK

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 246 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONE
PARTICULARLY LARGE CELL WHICH WAS WARNED ON NEAR MCKENZIE PASS.
RADAR HAIL SIZE ESTIMATES MAXED OUT AT 1.75 INCHES...APPROACHING
PING PONG BALL SIZE...THOUGH ACTUAL HAIL SIZE WAS LIKELY A BIT LOWER
THAN THAT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REALLY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
THIS STORM APPEARS TO HAVE FED A BIT OFF OF CONVERGING UPSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AS IT DRIFTED NORTHWARD. PERHAPS ONE OR TWO
MORE STRONG CELLS COULD DEVELOP SIMILARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE
ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THIS TO BE A WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE.

ANOTHER DRIVER FOR THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WAS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE AND JET MAX PUSHING INTO THE OREGON CASCADES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ALSO MAY HAVE HELPED PUSH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
CELL TO SEVERE LIMITS. AS THE JET MAX MOVES ON AND THE SUN GOES DOWN
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING.

FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE MAIN STORY IS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER INLAND. TEMPS ARE APPROACHING OR
HAVE ALREADY SURPASSED 90 DEGREES AT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS AS OF 2
PM. WHILE TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF NICELY INTO THE 50S IN THE OUTLYING
VALLEYS...URBAN AREAS AND EXPOSED HILLSIDES HAVE SEEN LESS RELIEF
WITH TEMPS ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 60S. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ONLY GRADUALLY
WEAKENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. COASTAL AREAS WILL
REMAIN COOLER AS A WEAK ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW CONTINUES.

RISK FOR THUNDER DECREASES TEMPORARILY WEDNESDAY AS MOST MODELS
DEPICT WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE REGION. STILL CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT THUNDER ON THE CREST AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN DECENT.
MOISTURE APPEARS LESS ABUNDANT THOUGH...AND AGAIN THERE SHOULD BE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING. CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THU/THU
NIGHT AS THE REMNANT MOISTURE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN LIFT
NORTH AND POSSIBLY COMBINE WITH ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES PRESENTLY
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEYOND 130W. FOR NOW...MOST MODELS SUGGEST
THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE ARE TARGETING AREAS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST
AND POINTS EAST. HOWEVER IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS FURTHER
WEST COULD BE AFFECTED IF THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL
IN SOME SE FLOW ALOFT. FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE
CREST OF THE OREGON CASCADES THU/THU NIGHT.  WEAGLE

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE UP THIS RIDGE AND BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE WILL STAY ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST.THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
KEEP HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNTIL THIS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE EITHER BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE COASTLINE
WITH IFR AND LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO WED
MORNING. WITH NW FLOW IN PLACE...EXPECT THE COASTAL STRATUS TO
PUSH PARTIALLY UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA OVERNIGHT. THE STRATUS WILL
LIKELY MAKE IT TO KSPB...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT CLOUDS WILL
REACH AS FAR AS KPDX AND KTTD. THE OTHER INLAND AIRPORTS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH TOMORROW. ANY INLAND STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR BY
ABOUT 16Z TOMORROW. EXPECT THE COAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. STRATUS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE
COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS TOMORROW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW
MVFR OR IFR STRATUS MAY APPROACH THE TERMINAL FROM THE WEST AFTER
12Z...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY 16Z. PYLE

&&

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED MOSTLY JUST SHORT-TERM WINDS FOR THE EVENING
PACKAGE TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBS. WITH BUOY 50 GUSTING TO
ONLY 10-15 KT...WILL CANCEL SCA FOR OFFSHORE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS....BUT WILL LET NEAR SHORE SCA RIDE AS NOS STATIONS AT
TILLAMOOK BAY AND NEWPORT CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY GUST TO 20-30
KT. WILL LEAVE DECISIONS ABOUT SCA FOR WEDNESDAY UP TO THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT AS NEAR SHORE WINDS LOOK MARGINAL WITH OFFSHORE
WINDS INCREASING LATER IN THE PERIOD.

ONLY OTHER CHANGE IS TO SHORTEN PERIODS TO 5-6 SECONDS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON RECENT OBS FROM BUOYS 29 AND 50 AS
WELL AS LATEST GUIDANCE. THIS MEANS SEAS ARE QUITE STEEP WITH 4-5
FEET AT 5-6 SECONDS AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. LONGER TERM FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. BOWEN

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC AS A
THERMAL TROUGH HOLDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS RESULTING
IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OREGON WATERS. GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK.

THE SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL WINDS. STEEP SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
BACKGROUND LONGER PERIOD SEAS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP ON
THE BUOYS...BUT THESE ARE VERY SMALL...1 FOOT OR LESS...AND LESS
SIGNIFICANT TO THE MARINER THAN THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS. THE STEEP SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH AND HAVE
THEREFORE COMBINED THE SEAS IN THE FORECAST. THE SEAS WILL BE THE
STEEPEST WHEN THE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST...DURING THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND NEAR SHORE.
TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&



000
FXUS66 KSEW 300341
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS FROM A 5940 HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IS STILL GENERALLY WEAK...BUT
THERE IS A STRONGER SEABREEZE THIS EVENING WITH GALE WESTERLIES
BLOWING IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. THE FORECAST AREA HAS MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR THE MARINE STRATUS HUGGING THE COAST.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
STRATUS WILL PUSH WEAKLY INLAND TONIGHT -- THROUGH THE STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA TO WHIDBEY ISLAND AND THE SAN JUANS...AND THROUGH THE
CHEHALIS GAP TO THE SOUTH PUGET SOUND REGION AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. THE SEATTLE AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...
AND THE STRATUS THAT DOES MOVE INLAND SHOULD BURN OFF MID TO LATE
MORNING. SO WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER GENERALLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST AND MID 70S TO MID 80S INLAND.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION NOTED BELOW.

MONSOON MOISTURE ROTATING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER
HIGH HAS RESULTED IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS NEAR AS THE OREGON
CASCADES THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. AND THIS EVENING SOME CONVECTION
DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES ALONG THE BORDER OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON. WE CAN BE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO JUST MISS OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. HOWEVER SOME MODEL RUNS DO SHOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WASHINGTON CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.   MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...HERE IS THE LONG TERM SECTION FROM THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST DISCUSSION -- THE ECMWF/GFS/AND TO SOME EXTENT THE CANADIAN
ARE SLOW TO SHIFT THE SHORT WAVE OUT OF THE AREA. JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING
NEAR THE CREST. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT THE WRFGFS AND EXTENSION MODEL
MOST THE QPF DOES INDEED STAY ALONG THE CREST OR ON THE EAST SIDE
THROUGH MONDAY. WITH MOST THE ACTIVITY LIKELY TO BE JUST OUTSIDE OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL INDICATE INCREASING AFTERNOON/EVENING CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND LEAVE IT AT THAT FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH IMPACT ON THE LOWLANDS. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING CLOUDS IN FURTHER OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SHOULD BURN OFF BY
MIDDAY. HIGHS MAY STILL TOP OUT NEAR 80 GIVEN THE 500 MB HEIGHTS
STILL ABOVE 5800M EVEN IF THE WEAK UPPER LOW LIFTS ACROSS.

AFTER THE LOW KICKS OUT THE RIDGE REMAINS FLAT AND THERE IS A CHANCE
OF WLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WOULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES
AND BRING MARINE AIR FURTHER INLAND. BUT SOME MODELS MAINTAIN A
STUBBORNLY STRONG RIDGE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. WILL GO WITH A
COMPROMISE AND KEEP DRY WEATHER AND HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
WHICH HAS BEEN THE DOMINATE PATTERN. MERCER

&&

.CLIMATE...TODAY MARKS 5 YEARS SINCE THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS SET AT SEA-TAC WAS SET ALONG WITH OTHER RECORD
HIGHS. SEATTLE(SEA-TAC) 103...NWS SEATTLE 105...CENTRALIA
107...OLYMPIA 104...ELMA 104...EVERETT 100...BELLINGHAM
96...ABERDEEN 95.

IN ADDITION...A TOTAL OF 0.31 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED ON
THIS DAY SINCE RECORDS STARTED AT SEATTLE-TACOMA AIRPORT IN 1945
MAKING THIS THE DRIEST DAY OF THE YEAR IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL
FOR THE DAY AT SEA-TAC.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH SW
FLOW ALOFT OVER WA. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE AIR IS DRY AND
STABLE EXCEPT FOR A SHALLOW COASTAL MARINE LAYER. SOME AREAS OF FOG
OR LOW CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED IN AS FAR AS WRN WHIDBEY ISLAND THIS
EVENING...SO AREAS OF MORNING FOG ARE A GOOD BET UP AROUND WHIDBEY
AND IN THE STRAIT. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG OR LOW CLOUDS INTO OLYMPIA
AND SHELTON AS WELL BY DAYBREAK...THAT WILL LAST A FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE...MORE SUNNY WEATHER ON TAP ON WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR THE
LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE OCEAN BEACHES.

KSEA...CLEAR WITH NLY BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH LOWER PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE VARYING DEGREES OF ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS STRONGER THIS EVENING AND A
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN
DE FUCA...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ADJACENT TO THE GALE WARNING
AREA...THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT...THE NORTHERN INLAND
WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY INLET. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE WED THROUGH SAT.
SLIGHTLY WEAKER ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL STILL GIVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST
      ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT
      OF JUAN DE FUCA...ADMIRALTY INLET...AND NORTHERN INLAND
      WATERS.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 300341
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS FROM A 5940 HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IS STILL GENERALLY WEAK...BUT
THERE IS A STRONGER SEABREEZE THIS EVENING WITH GALE WESTERLIES
BLOWING IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. THE FORECAST AREA HAS MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR THE MARINE STRATUS HUGGING THE COAST.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
STRATUS WILL PUSH WEAKLY INLAND TONIGHT -- THROUGH THE STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA TO WHIDBEY ISLAND AND THE SAN JUANS...AND THROUGH THE
CHEHALIS GAP TO THE SOUTH PUGET SOUND REGION AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. THE SEATTLE AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...
AND THE STRATUS THAT DOES MOVE INLAND SHOULD BURN OFF MID TO LATE
MORNING. SO WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER GENERALLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST AND MID 70S TO MID 80S INLAND.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION NOTED BELOW.

MONSOON MOISTURE ROTATING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER
HIGH HAS RESULTED IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS NEAR AS THE OREGON
CASCADES THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. AND THIS EVENING SOME CONVECTION
DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES ALONG THE BORDER OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON. WE CAN BE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO JUST MISS OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. HOWEVER SOME MODEL RUNS DO SHOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WASHINGTON CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.   MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...HERE IS THE LONG TERM SECTION FROM THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST DISCUSSION -- THE ECMWF/GFS/AND TO SOME EXTENT THE CANADIAN
ARE SLOW TO SHIFT THE SHORT WAVE OUT OF THE AREA. JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING
NEAR THE CREST. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT THE WRFGFS AND EXTENSION MODEL
MOST THE QPF DOES INDEED STAY ALONG THE CREST OR ON THE EAST SIDE
THROUGH MONDAY. WITH MOST THE ACTIVITY LIKELY TO BE JUST OUTSIDE OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL INDICATE INCREASING AFTERNOON/EVENING CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND LEAVE IT AT THAT FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH IMPACT ON THE LOWLANDS. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING CLOUDS IN FURTHER OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SHOULD BURN OFF BY
MIDDAY. HIGHS MAY STILL TOP OUT NEAR 80 GIVEN THE 500 MB HEIGHTS
STILL ABOVE 5800M EVEN IF THE WEAK UPPER LOW LIFTS ACROSS.

AFTER THE LOW KICKS OUT THE RIDGE REMAINS FLAT AND THERE IS A CHANCE
OF WLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WOULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES
AND BRING MARINE AIR FURTHER INLAND. BUT SOME MODELS MAINTAIN A
STUBBORNLY STRONG RIDGE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. WILL GO WITH A
COMPROMISE AND KEEP DRY WEATHER AND HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
WHICH HAS BEEN THE DOMINATE PATTERN. MERCER

&&

.CLIMATE...TODAY MARKS 5 YEARS SINCE THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS SET AT SEA-TAC WAS SET ALONG WITH OTHER RECORD
HIGHS. SEATTLE(SEA-TAC) 103...NWS SEATTLE 105...CENTRALIA
107...OLYMPIA 104...ELMA 104...EVERETT 100...BELLINGHAM
96...ABERDEEN 95.

IN ADDITION...A TOTAL OF 0.31 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED ON
THIS DAY SINCE RECORDS STARTED AT SEATTLE-TACOMA AIRPORT IN 1945
MAKING THIS THE DRIEST DAY OF THE YEAR IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL
FOR THE DAY AT SEA-TAC.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH SW
FLOW ALOFT OVER WA. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE AIR IS DRY AND
STABLE EXCEPT FOR A SHALLOW COASTAL MARINE LAYER. SOME AREAS OF FOG
OR LOW CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED IN AS FAR AS WRN WHIDBEY ISLAND THIS
EVENING...SO AREAS OF MORNING FOG ARE A GOOD BET UP AROUND WHIDBEY
AND IN THE STRAIT. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG OR LOW CLOUDS INTO OLYMPIA
AND SHELTON AS WELL BY DAYBREAK...THAT WILL LAST A FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE...MORE SUNNY WEATHER ON TAP ON WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR THE
LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE OCEAN BEACHES.

KSEA...CLEAR WITH NLY BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH LOWER PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE VARYING DEGREES OF ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS STRONGER THIS EVENING AND A
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN
DE FUCA...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ADJACENT TO THE GALE WARNING
AREA...THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT...THE NORTHERN INLAND
WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY INLET. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE WED THROUGH SAT.
SLIGHTLY WEAKER ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL STILL GIVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST
      ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT
      OF JUAN DE FUCA...ADMIRALTY INLET...AND NORTHERN INLAND
      WATERS.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 300341
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS FROM A 5940 HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IS STILL GENERALLY WEAK...BUT
THERE IS A STRONGER SEABREEZE THIS EVENING WITH GALE WESTERLIES
BLOWING IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. THE FORECAST AREA HAS MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR THE MARINE STRATUS HUGGING THE COAST.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
STRATUS WILL PUSH WEAKLY INLAND TONIGHT -- THROUGH THE STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA TO WHIDBEY ISLAND AND THE SAN JUANS...AND THROUGH THE
CHEHALIS GAP TO THE SOUTH PUGET SOUND REGION AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. THE SEATTLE AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...
AND THE STRATUS THAT DOES MOVE INLAND SHOULD BURN OFF MID TO LATE
MORNING. SO WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER GENERALLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST AND MID 70S TO MID 80S INLAND.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION NOTED BELOW.

MONSOON MOISTURE ROTATING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER
HIGH HAS RESULTED IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS NEAR AS THE OREGON
CASCADES THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. AND THIS EVENING SOME CONVECTION
DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES ALONG THE BORDER OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON. WE CAN BE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO JUST MISS OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. HOWEVER SOME MODEL RUNS DO SHOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WASHINGTON CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.   MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...HERE IS THE LONG TERM SECTION FROM THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST DISCUSSION -- THE ECMWF/GFS/AND TO SOME EXTENT THE CANADIAN
ARE SLOW TO SHIFT THE SHORT WAVE OUT OF THE AREA. JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING
NEAR THE CREST. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT THE WRFGFS AND EXTENSION MODEL
MOST THE QPF DOES INDEED STAY ALONG THE CREST OR ON THE EAST SIDE
THROUGH MONDAY. WITH MOST THE ACTIVITY LIKELY TO BE JUST OUTSIDE OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL INDICATE INCREASING AFTERNOON/EVENING CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND LEAVE IT AT THAT FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH IMPACT ON THE LOWLANDS. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING CLOUDS IN FURTHER OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SHOULD BURN OFF BY
MIDDAY. HIGHS MAY STILL TOP OUT NEAR 80 GIVEN THE 500 MB HEIGHTS
STILL ABOVE 5800M EVEN IF THE WEAK UPPER LOW LIFTS ACROSS.

AFTER THE LOW KICKS OUT THE RIDGE REMAINS FLAT AND THERE IS A CHANCE
OF WLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WOULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES
AND BRING MARINE AIR FURTHER INLAND. BUT SOME MODELS MAINTAIN A
STUBBORNLY STRONG RIDGE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. WILL GO WITH A
COMPROMISE AND KEEP DRY WEATHER AND HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
WHICH HAS BEEN THE DOMINATE PATTERN. MERCER

&&

.CLIMATE...TODAY MARKS 5 YEARS SINCE THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS SET AT SEA-TAC WAS SET ALONG WITH OTHER RECORD
HIGHS. SEATTLE(SEA-TAC) 103...NWS SEATTLE 105...CENTRALIA
107...OLYMPIA 104...ELMA 104...EVERETT 100...BELLINGHAM
96...ABERDEEN 95.

IN ADDITION...A TOTAL OF 0.31 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED ON
THIS DAY SINCE RECORDS STARTED AT SEATTLE-TACOMA AIRPORT IN 1945
MAKING THIS THE DRIEST DAY OF THE YEAR IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL
FOR THE DAY AT SEA-TAC.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH SW
FLOW ALOFT OVER WA. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE AIR IS DRY AND
STABLE EXCEPT FOR A SHALLOW COASTAL MARINE LAYER. SOME AREAS OF FOG
OR LOW CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED IN AS FAR AS WRN WHIDBEY ISLAND THIS
EVENING...SO AREAS OF MORNING FOG ARE A GOOD BET UP AROUND WHIDBEY
AND IN THE STRAIT. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG OR LOW CLOUDS INTO OLYMPIA
AND SHELTON AS WELL BY DAYBREAK...THAT WILL LAST A FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE...MORE SUNNY WEATHER ON TAP ON WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR THE
LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE OCEAN BEACHES.

KSEA...CLEAR WITH NLY BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH LOWER PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE VARYING DEGREES OF ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS STRONGER THIS EVENING AND A
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN
DE FUCA...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ADJACENT TO THE GALE WARNING
AREA...THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT...THE NORTHERN INLAND
WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY INLET. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE WED THROUGH SAT.
SLIGHTLY WEAKER ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL STILL GIVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST
      ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT
      OF JUAN DE FUCA...ADMIRALTY INLET...AND NORTHERN INLAND
      WATERS.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 300341
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS FROM A 5940 HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IS STILL GENERALLY WEAK...BUT
THERE IS A STRONGER SEABREEZE THIS EVENING WITH GALE WESTERLIES
BLOWING IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. THE FORECAST AREA HAS MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR THE MARINE STRATUS HUGGING THE COAST.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
STRATUS WILL PUSH WEAKLY INLAND TONIGHT -- THROUGH THE STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA TO WHIDBEY ISLAND AND THE SAN JUANS...AND THROUGH THE
CHEHALIS GAP TO THE SOUTH PUGET SOUND REGION AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. THE SEATTLE AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...
AND THE STRATUS THAT DOES MOVE INLAND SHOULD BURN OFF MID TO LATE
MORNING. SO WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER GENERALLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST AND MID 70S TO MID 80S INLAND.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION NOTED BELOW.

MONSOON MOISTURE ROTATING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER
HIGH HAS RESULTED IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS NEAR AS THE OREGON
CASCADES THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. AND THIS EVENING SOME CONVECTION
DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES ALONG THE BORDER OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON. WE CAN BE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO JUST MISS OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. HOWEVER SOME MODEL RUNS DO SHOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WASHINGTON CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.   MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...HERE IS THE LONG TERM SECTION FROM THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST DISCUSSION -- THE ECMWF/GFS/AND TO SOME EXTENT THE CANADIAN
ARE SLOW TO SHIFT THE SHORT WAVE OUT OF THE AREA. JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING
NEAR THE CREST. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT THE WRFGFS AND EXTENSION MODEL
MOST THE QPF DOES INDEED STAY ALONG THE CREST OR ON THE EAST SIDE
THROUGH MONDAY. WITH MOST THE ACTIVITY LIKELY TO BE JUST OUTSIDE OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL INDICATE INCREASING AFTERNOON/EVENING CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND LEAVE IT AT THAT FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH IMPACT ON THE LOWLANDS. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING CLOUDS IN FURTHER OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SHOULD BURN OFF BY
MIDDAY. HIGHS MAY STILL TOP OUT NEAR 80 GIVEN THE 500 MB HEIGHTS
STILL ABOVE 5800M EVEN IF THE WEAK UPPER LOW LIFTS ACROSS.

AFTER THE LOW KICKS OUT THE RIDGE REMAINS FLAT AND THERE IS A CHANCE
OF WLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WOULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES
AND BRING MARINE AIR FURTHER INLAND. BUT SOME MODELS MAINTAIN A
STUBBORNLY STRONG RIDGE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. WILL GO WITH A
COMPROMISE AND KEEP DRY WEATHER AND HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
WHICH HAS BEEN THE DOMINATE PATTERN. MERCER

&&

.CLIMATE...TODAY MARKS 5 YEARS SINCE THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS SET AT SEA-TAC WAS SET ALONG WITH OTHER RECORD
HIGHS. SEATTLE(SEA-TAC) 103...NWS SEATTLE 105...CENTRALIA
107...OLYMPIA 104...ELMA 104...EVERETT 100...BELLINGHAM
96...ABERDEEN 95.

IN ADDITION...A TOTAL OF 0.31 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED ON
THIS DAY SINCE RECORDS STARTED AT SEATTLE-TACOMA AIRPORT IN 1945
MAKING THIS THE DRIEST DAY OF THE YEAR IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL
FOR THE DAY AT SEA-TAC.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH SW
FLOW ALOFT OVER WA. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE AIR IS DRY AND
STABLE EXCEPT FOR A SHALLOW COASTAL MARINE LAYER. SOME AREAS OF FOG
OR LOW CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED IN AS FAR AS WRN WHIDBEY ISLAND THIS
EVENING...SO AREAS OF MORNING FOG ARE A GOOD BET UP AROUND WHIDBEY
AND IN THE STRAIT. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG OR LOW CLOUDS INTO OLYMPIA
AND SHELTON AS WELL BY DAYBREAK...THAT WILL LAST A FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE...MORE SUNNY WEATHER ON TAP ON WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR THE
LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE OCEAN BEACHES.

KSEA...CLEAR WITH NLY BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH LOWER PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE VARYING DEGREES OF ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS STRONGER THIS EVENING AND A
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN
DE FUCA...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ADJACENT TO THE GALE WARNING
AREA...THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT...THE NORTHERN INLAND
WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY INLET. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE WED THROUGH SAT.
SLIGHTLY WEAKER ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL STILL GIVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST
      ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT
      OF JUAN DE FUCA...ADMIRALTY INLET...AND NORTHERN INLAND
      WATERS.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 292215
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM DAYS TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW CLOUDS
ALONG THE COAST TO INTRUDE THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND
LOWER CHEHALIS GAP DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS GREATER PUGET SOUND WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WRN U.S.
WILL KEEP DRY SW FLOW ALOFT OVER WA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN LAST
EVENING SO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE
STRAIT...AROUND THE EAST ENTRANCE...AND THROUGH THE LOWER CHEHALIS
GAP INTO ABOUT SHELTON. BUT MARINE AIR WILL LIKELY NOT FULLY MAKE IT
INTO THE SOUND SO TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF WARM AND SHOULD REACH
THE LOW TO MID 80S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MODELS HAVE LATCHED ON TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE LIFTING NWD
TOWARD THE PAC NOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND SKIRTING E OF THE CASCADES ON
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY HELP INDUCE STRONGER LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
BUT HOW STRONG OF A SWLY PUSH DEVELOPS IS IN QUESTION. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD COME DOWN AT LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES BUT PROBABLY STILL HOVER
NEAR THE LOW 80S...UNLESS THE PUSH IS QUITE STRONG.

ANOTHER EFFECT FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE TO GENERATE WEAK INSTABILITY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE TRAJECTORY OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THERE WILL BE JUST CUMULUS
OVER THE CASCADES/OLYMPICS OR POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. MODELS
STARTED PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE LAST NIGHT AND MOST OF THEM AGREE
THAT IT AFFECTS OUR REGION BUT EACH DIFFERENTLY. THE NAM-12 AND
CANADIAN BOTH INDICATE THE VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY LIFT
MAINLY NE THROUGH ERN OREGON AND ERN WA. THIS MIGHT RESULT IN SOME
CU OVER THE CASCADES BUT PROBABLY NOT MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE CANADIAN HAS A TRAILING TROUGH THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN
THUNDER BY SATURDAY BUT THAT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF AND GFS
ARE STRONGER WITH THIS SHORT WAVE WHICH ORIGINATED FROM THE TROPICS.
THESE TWO MODELS HAVE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE CASCADES AND
OLYMPICS AS THE TROUGH LIFTS MORE NWD THAN THE OTHER MODELS. SO THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HOW TO WEIGH THE MODELS AND WHETHER OR NOT TO
INTRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKING AT THE VAST DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 5
DIFFERENT MODELS MY CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW ON WHERE THIS SHORT WAVE
WILL TRACK. DECIDED THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS IS TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE CASCADES/OLYMPICS DURING THE AFTERNOON EVENING HOURS
IMPLYING CUMULUS BUILD UP. WILL WAIT FOR MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE
INTRODUCING ANY THREAT OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...THE ECMWF/GFS/AND TO SOME EXTENT THE CANADIAN ARE SLOW
TO SHIFT THE SHORT WAVE OUT OF THE AREA. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
LIFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING NEAR THE CREST.
HOWEVER...LOOKING AT THE WRFGFS AND EXTENSION MODEL MOST THE QPF
DOES INDEED STAY ALONG THE CREST OR ON THE EAST SIDE THROUGH
MONDAY. WITH MOST THE ACTIVITY LIKELY TO BE JUST OUTSIDE OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL INDICATE INCREASING AFTERNOON/EVENING CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND LEAVE IT AT THAT FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH IMPACT ON THE LOWLANDS. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING CLOUDS IN FURTHER OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SHOULD BURN OFF BY
MIDDAY. HIGHS MAY STILL TOP OUT NEAR 80 GIVEN THE 500 MB HEIGHTS
STILL ABOVE 5800M EVEN IF THE WEAK UPPER LOW LIFTS ACROSS.

AFTER THE LOW KICKS OUT THE RIDGE REMAINS FLAT AND THERE IS A CHANCE
OF WLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WOULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES
AND BRING MARINE AIR FURTHER INLAND. BUT SOME MODELS MAINTAIN A
STUBBORNLY STRONG RIDGE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. WILL GO WITH A
COMPROMISE AND KEEP DRY WEATHER AND HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
WHICH HAS BEEN THE DOMINATE PATTERN. MERCER

&&

.CLIMATE...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TODAY MARKS 5 YEARS SINCE THE
ALL TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS SET AT SEA-TAC WAS SET ALONG
WITH OTHER RECORD HIGHS. SEATTLE(SEA-TAC) 103...NWS SEATTLE
105...CENTRALIA 107...OLYMPIA 104...ELMA 104...EVERETT
100...BELLINGHAM 96...ABERDEEN 95.

IN ADDITION...A TOTAL OF 0.31 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED ON
THIS DAY SINCE RECORDS STARTED AT SEATTLE-TACOMA AIRPORT IN 1945
MAKING THIS THE DRIEST DAY OF THE YEAR IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL
FOR THE DAY AT SEA-TAC.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST COMBINED WITH A TROUGH ALONG ABOUT 140W WILL GIVE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURE EAST
OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THE AIR MASS IS
DRY AND STABLE...EXCEPT FOR A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST.

THE MARINE LAYER WILL ONTO THE WASHINGTON COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING
THEN EAST THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND IN THROUGH THE
CHEHALIS GAP OVERNIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONGER THAN LAST
EVENING AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRATUS AND FOG PUSHING INLAND
FARTHER THAN THIS MORNING. THE TERMINAL MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED
WILL BE KPAE...BUT KOLM MAY ALSO GET SOME FOG AND STRATUS WED
MORNING. ANY LOCATION GETTING STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY SEE IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS WED MORNING WHILE OTHER AREAS WILL
REMAIN CLEAR.  ALBRECHT

KSEA...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT FOG OR STRATUS WILL REACH THE TERMINAL WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT IT WILL LIKELY GET TO WITHIN 10 NM OF THE TERMINAL
OVER THE PUGET SOUND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL INCLUDE A
FEW002 CLOUD LAYER IN THE MORNING PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. NW
WIND 6 TO 9 KT WILL VEER TO NE 5-7 KT AFTER 04Z THIS EVENING THEN
BECOME VARIABLE AFTER 08Z. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS COMBINED
WITH LOWER PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE VARYING DEGREES
OF ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THAN IT HAS BEEN OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS. SO...A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 5 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO THE GALE WARNING AREA...THE WEST
ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT...THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY
INLET. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL GIVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE WED THROUGH SAT. SLIGHTLY
WEAKER ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL STILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST
      ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT
      OF JUAN DE FUCA...ADMIRALTY INLET...AND NORTHERN INLAND
      WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML














000
FXUS66 KSEW 292215
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM DAYS TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW CLOUDS
ALONG THE COAST TO INTRUDE THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND
LOWER CHEHALIS GAP DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS GREATER PUGET SOUND WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WRN U.S.
WILL KEEP DRY SW FLOW ALOFT OVER WA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN LAST
EVENING SO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE
STRAIT...AROUND THE EAST ENTRANCE...AND THROUGH THE LOWER CHEHALIS
GAP INTO ABOUT SHELTON. BUT MARINE AIR WILL LIKELY NOT FULLY MAKE IT
INTO THE SOUND SO TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF WARM AND SHOULD REACH
THE LOW TO MID 80S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MODELS HAVE LATCHED ON TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE LIFTING NWD
TOWARD THE PAC NOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND SKIRTING E OF THE CASCADES ON
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY HELP INDUCE STRONGER LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
BUT HOW STRONG OF A SWLY PUSH DEVELOPS IS IN QUESTION. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD COME DOWN AT LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES BUT PROBABLY STILL HOVER
NEAR THE LOW 80S...UNLESS THE PUSH IS QUITE STRONG.

ANOTHER EFFECT FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE TO GENERATE WEAK INSTABILITY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE TRAJECTORY OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THERE WILL BE JUST CUMULUS
OVER THE CASCADES/OLYMPICS OR POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. MODELS
STARTED PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE LAST NIGHT AND MOST OF THEM AGREE
THAT IT AFFECTS OUR REGION BUT EACH DIFFERENTLY. THE NAM-12 AND
CANADIAN BOTH INDICATE THE VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY LIFT
MAINLY NE THROUGH ERN OREGON AND ERN WA. THIS MIGHT RESULT IN SOME
CU OVER THE CASCADES BUT PROBABLY NOT MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE CANADIAN HAS A TRAILING TROUGH THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN
THUNDER BY SATURDAY BUT THAT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF AND GFS
ARE STRONGER WITH THIS SHORT WAVE WHICH ORIGINATED FROM THE TROPICS.
THESE TWO MODELS HAVE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE CASCADES AND
OLYMPICS AS THE TROUGH LIFTS MORE NWD THAN THE OTHER MODELS. SO THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HOW TO WEIGH THE MODELS AND WHETHER OR NOT TO
INTRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKING AT THE VAST DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 5
DIFFERENT MODELS MY CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW ON WHERE THIS SHORT WAVE
WILL TRACK. DECIDED THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS IS TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE CASCADES/OLYMPICS DURING THE AFTERNOON EVENING HOURS
IMPLYING CUMULUS BUILD UP. WILL WAIT FOR MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE
INTRODUCING ANY THREAT OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...THE ECMWF/GFS/AND TO SOME EXTENT THE CANADIAN ARE SLOW
TO SHIFT THE SHORT WAVE OUT OF THE AREA. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
LIFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING NEAR THE CREST.
HOWEVER...LOOKING AT THE WRFGFS AND EXTENSION MODEL MOST THE QPF
DOES INDEED STAY ALONG THE CREST OR ON THE EAST SIDE THROUGH
MONDAY. WITH MOST THE ACTIVITY LIKELY TO BE JUST OUTSIDE OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL INDICATE INCREASING AFTERNOON/EVENING CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND LEAVE IT AT THAT FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH IMPACT ON THE LOWLANDS. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING CLOUDS IN FURTHER OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SHOULD BURN OFF BY
MIDDAY. HIGHS MAY STILL TOP OUT NEAR 80 GIVEN THE 500 MB HEIGHTS
STILL ABOVE 5800M EVEN IF THE WEAK UPPER LOW LIFTS ACROSS.

AFTER THE LOW KICKS OUT THE RIDGE REMAINS FLAT AND THERE IS A CHANCE
OF WLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WOULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES
AND BRING MARINE AIR FURTHER INLAND. BUT SOME MODELS MAINTAIN A
STUBBORNLY STRONG RIDGE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. WILL GO WITH A
COMPROMISE AND KEEP DRY WEATHER AND HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
WHICH HAS BEEN THE DOMINATE PATTERN. MERCER

&&

.CLIMATE...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TODAY MARKS 5 YEARS SINCE THE
ALL TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS SET AT SEA-TAC WAS SET ALONG
WITH OTHER RECORD HIGHS. SEATTLE(SEA-TAC) 103...NWS SEATTLE
105...CENTRALIA 107...OLYMPIA 104...ELMA 104...EVERETT
100...BELLINGHAM 96...ABERDEEN 95.

IN ADDITION...A TOTAL OF 0.31 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED ON
THIS DAY SINCE RECORDS STARTED AT SEATTLE-TACOMA AIRPORT IN 1945
MAKING THIS THE DRIEST DAY OF THE YEAR IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL
FOR THE DAY AT SEA-TAC.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST COMBINED WITH A TROUGH ALONG ABOUT 140W WILL GIVE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURE EAST
OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THE AIR MASS IS
DRY AND STABLE...EXCEPT FOR A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST.

THE MARINE LAYER WILL ONTO THE WASHINGTON COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING
THEN EAST THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND IN THROUGH THE
CHEHALIS GAP OVERNIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONGER THAN LAST
EVENING AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRATUS AND FOG PUSHING INLAND
FARTHER THAN THIS MORNING. THE TERMINAL MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED
WILL BE KPAE...BUT KOLM MAY ALSO GET SOME FOG AND STRATUS WED
MORNING. ANY LOCATION GETTING STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY SEE IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS WED MORNING WHILE OTHER AREAS WILL
REMAIN CLEAR.  ALBRECHT

KSEA...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT FOG OR STRATUS WILL REACH THE TERMINAL WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT IT WILL LIKELY GET TO WITHIN 10 NM OF THE TERMINAL
OVER THE PUGET SOUND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL INCLUDE A
FEW002 CLOUD LAYER IN THE MORNING PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. NW
WIND 6 TO 9 KT WILL VEER TO NE 5-7 KT AFTER 04Z THIS EVENING THEN
BECOME VARIABLE AFTER 08Z. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS COMBINED
WITH LOWER PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE VARYING DEGREES
OF ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THAN IT HAS BEEN OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS. SO...A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 5 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO THE GALE WARNING AREA...THE WEST
ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT...THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY
INLET. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL GIVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE WED THROUGH SAT. SLIGHTLY
WEAKER ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL STILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST
      ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT
      OF JUAN DE FUCA...ADMIRALTY INLET...AND NORTHERN INLAND
      WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML















000
FXUS66 KPQR 292147
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
246 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA...AS A RESULT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS
UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT IS VERY WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE
THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE
CASCADES...ESPECIALLY LANE COUNTY. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS
OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONE
PARTICULARLY LARGE CELL WHICH WAS WARNED ON NEAR MCKENZIE PASS.
RADAR HAIL SIZE ESTIMATES MAXED OUT AT 1.75 INCHES...APPROACHING
PING PONG BALL SIZE...THOUGH ACTUAL HAIL SIZE WAS LIKELY A BIT LOWER
THAN THAT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REALLY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
THIS STORM APPEARS TO HAVE FED A BIT OFF OF CONVERGING UPSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AS IT DRIFTED NORTHWARD. PERHAPS ONE OR TWO
MORE STRONG CELLS COULD DEVELOP SIMILARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE
ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THIS TO BE A WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE.

ANOTHER DRIVER FOR THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WAS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE AND JET MAX PUSHING INTO THE OREGON CASCADES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ALSO MAY HAVE HELPED PUSH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
CELL TO SEVERE LIMITS. AS THE JET MAX MOVES ON AND THE SUN GOES DOWN
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING.

FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE MAIN STORY IS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER INLAND. TEMPS ARE APPROACHING OR
HAVE ALREADY SURPASSED 90 DEGREES AT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS AS OF 2
PM. WHILE TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF NICELY INTO THE 50S IN THE OUTLYING
VALLEYS...URBAN AREAS AND EXPOSED HILLSIDES HAVE SEEN LESS RELIEF
WITH TEMPS ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 60S. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ONLY GRADUALLY
WEAKENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. COASTAL AREAS WILL
REMAIN COOLER AS A WEAK ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW CONTINUES.

RISK FOR THUNDER DECREASES TEMPORARILY WEDNESDAY AS MOST MODELS
DEPICT WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE REGION. STILL CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT THUNDER ON THE CREST AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN DECENT.
MOISTURE APPEARS LESS ABUNDANT THOUGH...AND AGAIN THERE SHOULD BE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING. CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THU/THU
NIGHT AS THE REMNANT MOISTURE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN LIFT
NORTH AND POSSIBLY COMBINE WITH ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES PRESENTLY
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEYOND 130W. FOR NOW...MOST MODELS SUGGEST
THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE ARE TARGETING AREAS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST
AND POINTS EAST. HOWEVER IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS FURTHER
WEST COULD BE AFFECTED IF THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL
IN SOME SE FLOW ALOFT. FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE
CREST OF THE OREGON CASCADES THU/THU NIGHT.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE UP THIS RIDGE AND BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE WILL STAY ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST.THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
KEEP HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNTIL THIS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE EITHER BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE COASTLINE
WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE INLAND AIRPORTS TONIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THIS
EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF MT JEFFERSON. SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS
POSSIBLE OVER THE CASCADES DRIFTING NNE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING TONIGHT AND WED WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT N-NW SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC
AS A THERMAL TROUGH HOLDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS
RESULTING IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OREGON WATERS.
GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING
OR EXCEEDING 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST SOUTH OF
TILLAMOOK.

THE SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL WINDS. STEEP SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
BACKGROUND LONGER PERIOD SEAS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP ON
THE BUOYS...BUT THESE ARE VERY SMALL...1 FOOT OR LESS...AND LESS
SIGNIFICANT TO THE MARINER THAN THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS. THE STEEP SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH AND HAVE
THEREFORE COMBINED THE SEAS IN THE FORECAST. THE SEAS WILL BE THE
STEEPEST WHEN THE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST...DURING THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND NEAR SHORE.
TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 292147
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
246 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA...AS A RESULT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS
UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT IS VERY WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE
THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE
CASCADES...ESPECIALLY LANE COUNTY. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS
OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONE
PARTICULARLY LARGE CELL WHICH WAS WARNED ON NEAR MCKENZIE PASS.
RADAR HAIL SIZE ESTIMATES MAXED OUT AT 1.75 INCHES...APPROACHING
PING PONG BALL SIZE...THOUGH ACTUAL HAIL SIZE WAS LIKELY A BIT LOWER
THAN THAT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REALLY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
THIS STORM APPEARS TO HAVE FED A BIT OFF OF CONVERGING UPSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AS IT DRIFTED NORTHWARD. PERHAPS ONE OR TWO
MORE STRONG CELLS COULD DEVELOP SIMILARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE
ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THIS TO BE A WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE.

ANOTHER DRIVER FOR THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WAS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE AND JET MAX PUSHING INTO THE OREGON CASCADES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ALSO MAY HAVE HELPED PUSH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
CELL TO SEVERE LIMITS. AS THE JET MAX MOVES ON AND THE SUN GOES DOWN
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING.

FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE MAIN STORY IS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER INLAND. TEMPS ARE APPROACHING OR
HAVE ALREADY SURPASSED 90 DEGREES AT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS AS OF 2
PM. WHILE TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF NICELY INTO THE 50S IN THE OUTLYING
VALLEYS...URBAN AREAS AND EXPOSED HILLSIDES HAVE SEEN LESS RELIEF
WITH TEMPS ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 60S. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ONLY GRADUALLY
WEAKENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. COASTAL AREAS WILL
REMAIN COOLER AS A WEAK ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW CONTINUES.

RISK FOR THUNDER DECREASES TEMPORARILY WEDNESDAY AS MOST MODELS
DEPICT WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE REGION. STILL CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT THUNDER ON THE CREST AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN DECENT.
MOISTURE APPEARS LESS ABUNDANT THOUGH...AND AGAIN THERE SHOULD BE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING. CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THU/THU
NIGHT AS THE REMNANT MOISTURE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN LIFT
NORTH AND POSSIBLY COMBINE WITH ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES PRESENTLY
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEYOND 130W. FOR NOW...MOST MODELS SUGGEST
THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE ARE TARGETING AREAS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST
AND POINTS EAST. HOWEVER IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS FURTHER
WEST COULD BE AFFECTED IF THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL
IN SOME SE FLOW ALOFT. FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE
CREST OF THE OREGON CASCADES THU/THU NIGHT.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE UP THIS RIDGE AND BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE WILL STAY ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST.THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
KEEP HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNTIL THIS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE EITHER BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE COASTLINE
WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE INLAND AIRPORTS TONIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THIS
EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF MT JEFFERSON. SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS
POSSIBLE OVER THE CASCADES DRIFTING NNE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING TONIGHT AND WED WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT N-NW SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC
AS A THERMAL TROUGH HOLDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS
RESULTING IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OREGON WATERS.
GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING
OR EXCEEDING 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST SOUTH OF
TILLAMOOK.

THE SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL WINDS. STEEP SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
BACKGROUND LONGER PERIOD SEAS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP ON
THE BUOYS...BUT THESE ARE VERY SMALL...1 FOOT OR LESS...AND LESS
SIGNIFICANT TO THE MARINER THAN THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS. THE STEEP SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH AND HAVE
THEREFORE COMBINED THE SEAS IN THE FORECAST. THE SEAS WILL BE THE
STEEPEST WHEN THE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST...DURING THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND NEAR SHORE.
TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 292147
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
246 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA...AS A RESULT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS
UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT IS VERY WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE
THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE
CASCADES...ESPECIALLY LANE COUNTY. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS
OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONE
PARTICULARLY LARGE CELL WHICH WAS WARNED ON NEAR MCKENZIE PASS.
RADAR HAIL SIZE ESTIMATES MAXED OUT AT 1.75 INCHES...APPROACHING
PING PONG BALL SIZE...THOUGH ACTUAL HAIL SIZE WAS LIKELY A BIT LOWER
THAN THAT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REALLY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
THIS STORM APPEARS TO HAVE FED A BIT OFF OF CONVERGING UPSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AS IT DRIFTED NORTHWARD. PERHAPS ONE OR TWO
MORE STRONG CELLS COULD DEVELOP SIMILARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE
ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THIS TO BE A WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE.

ANOTHER DRIVER FOR THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WAS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE AND JET MAX PUSHING INTO THE OREGON CASCADES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ALSO MAY HAVE HELPED PUSH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
CELL TO SEVERE LIMITS. AS THE JET MAX MOVES ON AND THE SUN GOES DOWN
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING.

FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE MAIN STORY IS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER INLAND. TEMPS ARE APPROACHING OR
HAVE ALREADY SURPASSED 90 DEGREES AT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS AS OF 2
PM. WHILE TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF NICELY INTO THE 50S IN THE OUTLYING
VALLEYS...URBAN AREAS AND EXPOSED HILLSIDES HAVE SEEN LESS RELIEF
WITH TEMPS ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 60S. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ONLY GRADUALLY
WEAKENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. COASTAL AREAS WILL
REMAIN COOLER AS A WEAK ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW CONTINUES.

RISK FOR THUNDER DECREASES TEMPORARILY WEDNESDAY AS MOST MODELS
DEPICT WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE REGION. STILL CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT THUNDER ON THE CREST AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN DECENT.
MOISTURE APPEARS LESS ABUNDANT THOUGH...AND AGAIN THERE SHOULD BE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING. CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THU/THU
NIGHT AS THE REMNANT MOISTURE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN LIFT
NORTH AND POSSIBLY COMBINE WITH ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES PRESENTLY
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEYOND 130W. FOR NOW...MOST MODELS SUGGEST
THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE ARE TARGETING AREAS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST
AND POINTS EAST. HOWEVER IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS FURTHER
WEST COULD BE AFFECTED IF THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL
IN SOME SE FLOW ALOFT. FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE
CREST OF THE OREGON CASCADES THU/THU NIGHT.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE UP THIS RIDGE AND BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE WILL STAY ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST.THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
KEEP HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNTIL THIS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE EITHER BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE COASTLINE
WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE INLAND AIRPORTS TONIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THIS
EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF MT JEFFERSON. SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS
POSSIBLE OVER THE CASCADES DRIFTING NNE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING TONIGHT AND WED WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT N-NW SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC
AS A THERMAL TROUGH HOLDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS
RESULTING IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OREGON WATERS.
GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING
OR EXCEEDING 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST SOUTH OF
TILLAMOOK.

THE SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL WINDS. STEEP SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
BACKGROUND LONGER PERIOD SEAS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP ON
THE BUOYS...BUT THESE ARE VERY SMALL...1 FOOT OR LESS...AND LESS
SIGNIFICANT TO THE MARINER THAN THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS. THE STEEP SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH AND HAVE
THEREFORE COMBINED THE SEAS IN THE FORECAST. THE SEAS WILL BE THE
STEEPEST WHEN THE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST...DURING THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND NEAR SHORE.
TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KOTX 292143
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
243 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny and hot weather will continue over the Inland Northwest
through at least Friday. A gradual increase in clouds over the
next few days may knock temperatures down a few degrees, but mid
90s to low 100s will be common through the work week. The threat
for thunderstorms should increase over the weekend which may
knock temperatures down a bit more.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight...The region will remain under the control of a strong
upper level ridge. Any of the monsoonal moisture and instability
working slowly northward through northern Oregon/central Idaho
will generally remain south of our forecast area. However there is
a very small chance of a shower or thunderstorm early this evening
over the southern Idaho Panhandle or the extreme southeast corner
of Washington due to the greatest potential instability combined
with the weakest convective cap. After sunset most of the activity
will taper off rapidly. It will be a dry and mild night once again
with poor relative humidity recoveries for most locations. Clouds
will increase late tonight near the Oregon border as a pool of
mid-level instability and moisture surges slowly northward. We do
not expect any precipitation to occur...however there could be a
small field of ACCAS clouds and perhaps a sprinkle after sunrise.
fx

Wednesday through Friday: It is tough to get too excited about
precipitation chances for the majority of the Inland Northwest
Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday. The morning runs of the weather
models keep the lion`s share of the mid-level moisture and
surface based instability for thunderstorms over Oregon and
southern Idaho for the second half of the work week. The models
are in good agreement that a weak upper level disturbance off the
coast of northern California will dent the formidable upper level
ridge on Wednesday shunting a bit of mid-level moisture into the
Panhandle. The NAM looks to be the most aggressive generating
convection over the Idaho Panhandle mountains Wednesday afternoon
and evening, but it is tough to forecast more than a 20 percent
chance of showers and thunderstorms, even following the "moist"
NAM. Another marginal push of mid-level moisture is suggested on
Friday, possibly into the Cascades and southeast Washington. Once
again, it is tough to forecast more than 20 percent chance of
mainly terrain based convection.

Raw model output is generally hotter than MOS guidance Wednesday
through Friday. Given the relatively limited amount of cloud cover
expected, temperatures have been trended a bit hotter. 850mb
temperatures do not trend down much the second half of the week,
so it looks like a continuation of mid 90s to near 100 degrees for
most of the region. /GKoch

Friday night through Tuesday...Very odd interval of the forecast.
Pops were raised as at least three ECMWF runs hint fairly hard
that some remnant moisture and energy from post-tropical storm
Hernan gets ejected up from the East Pacific and into the
southerly/southwesterly flow on the west side of the longwave
ridge axis over the Western US. This leaves a good part of the
interval with increase pops and the QPF is something to ponder a
good time over. Many are noting some similarity in this solution
to what Hurricane Fabio did back around this same time period back
in late July of 2012. Discussion of this similarity last night
with other forecasters noted that remnants of Fabio were
associated with dropping 1.76 inches on Omak back on July 20,2012
along with 1.70 inches on Chelan and 0.92 inches Mazama on July
20,2012. Locations further east such as Spokane received 0.25
inches on July 20, 2012. Nobody is saying that this scenario will
repeat exactly as Fabio did in 2012 but it is worth looking back
and noting how much rain did fall back then. With this in mind as
far as Friday night through Sunday goes pops were increased some
with uncertainty noted as it is usually problematic to model
solution run to run consistency anytime tropical energy gets
ejected up into the mid-latitudes. Expectation is any/all
disturbances that may be remotely associated with remnant Hernan
moisture/energy will be to the east of the area and the prevailing
Southwest flow on the west side of the persistent longwave ridge
may steer additional shortwaves through either from the East
Pacific or up from the south but current model runs are not
aggressive in doing so. As such Sunday night through Tuesday pops
show a decrease and are lower in comparison to those over the
weekend. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at all forecast sites during
this period as strong ridge remains over the region. There could
be a weak disturbance moving across the OR/WA border after 12z
which could deliver increasing mid and high level clouds...but
little else. fx


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        68  97  68  96  67  93 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  64  95  63  94  62  92 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        58  95  58  94  59  91 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       71 102  71 101  71  98 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       59 102  58 101  59  97 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      55  93  55  92  54  91 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        63  93  61  93  62  90 /   0  10  20  10  10  10
Moses Lake     66 102  64 101  65  99 /   0  10   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      71 100  70 100  72  99 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           66 101  65 100  66  99 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 292143
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
243 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny and hot weather will continue over the Inland Northwest
through at least Friday. A gradual increase in clouds over the
next few days may knock temperatures down a few degrees, but mid
90s to low 100s will be common through the work week. The threat
for thunderstorms should increase over the weekend which may
knock temperatures down a bit more.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight...The region will remain under the control of a strong
upper level ridge. Any of the monsoonal moisture and instability
working slowly northward through northern Oregon/central Idaho
will generally remain south of our forecast area. However there is
a very small chance of a shower or thunderstorm early this evening
over the southern Idaho Panhandle or the extreme southeast corner
of Washington due to the greatest potential instability combined
with the weakest convective cap. After sunset most of the activity
will taper off rapidly. It will be a dry and mild night once again
with poor relative humidity recoveries for most locations. Clouds
will increase late tonight near the Oregon border as a pool of
mid-level instability and moisture surges slowly northward. We do
not expect any precipitation to occur...however there could be a
small field of ACCAS clouds and perhaps a sprinkle after sunrise.
fx

Wednesday through Friday: It is tough to get too excited about
precipitation chances for the majority of the Inland Northwest
Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday. The morning runs of the weather
models keep the lion`s share of the mid-level moisture and
surface based instability for thunderstorms over Oregon and
southern Idaho for the second half of the work week. The models
are in good agreement that a weak upper level disturbance off the
coast of northern California will dent the formidable upper level
ridge on Wednesday shunting a bit of mid-level moisture into the
Panhandle. The NAM looks to be the most aggressive generating
convection over the Idaho Panhandle mountains Wednesday afternoon
and evening, but it is tough to forecast more than a 20 percent
chance of showers and thunderstorms, even following the "moist"
NAM. Another marginal push of mid-level moisture is suggested on
Friday, possibly into the Cascades and southeast Washington. Once
again, it is tough to forecast more than 20 percent chance of
mainly terrain based convection.

Raw model output is generally hotter than MOS guidance Wednesday
through Friday. Given the relatively limited amount of cloud cover
expected, temperatures have been trended a bit hotter. 850mb
temperatures do not trend down much the second half of the week,
so it looks like a continuation of mid 90s to near 100 degrees for
most of the region. /GKoch

Friday night through Tuesday...Very odd interval of the forecast.
Pops were raised as at least three ECMWF runs hint fairly hard
that some remnant moisture and energy from post-tropical storm
Hernan gets ejected up from the East Pacific and into the
southerly/southwesterly flow on the west side of the longwave
ridge axis over the Western US. This leaves a good part of the
interval with increase pops and the QPF is something to ponder a
good time over. Many are noting some similarity in this solution
to what Hurricane Fabio did back around this same time period back
in late July of 2012. Discussion of this similarity last night
with other forecasters noted that remnants of Fabio were
associated with dropping 1.76 inches on Omak back on July 20,2012
along with 1.70 inches on Chelan and 0.92 inches Mazama on July
20,2012. Locations further east such as Spokane received 0.25
inches on July 20, 2012. Nobody is saying that this scenario will
repeat exactly as Fabio did in 2012 but it is worth looking back
and noting how much rain did fall back then. With this in mind as
far as Friday night through Sunday goes pops were increased some
with uncertainty noted as it is usually problematic to model
solution run to run consistency anytime tropical energy gets
ejected up into the mid-latitudes. Expectation is any/all
disturbances that may be remotely associated with remnant Hernan
moisture/energy will be to the east of the area and the prevailing
Southwest flow on the west side of the persistent longwave ridge
may steer additional shortwaves through either from the East
Pacific or up from the south but current model runs are not
aggressive in doing so. As such Sunday night through Tuesday pops
show a decrease and are lower in comparison to those over the
weekend. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at all forecast sites during
this period as strong ridge remains over the region. There could
be a weak disturbance moving across the OR/WA border after 12z
which could deliver increasing mid and high level clouds...but
little else. fx


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        68  97  68  96  67  93 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  64  95  63  94  62  92 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        58  95  58  94  59  91 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       71 102  71 101  71  98 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       59 102  58 101  59  97 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      55  93  55  92  54  91 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        63  93  61  93  62  90 /   0  10  20  10  10  10
Moses Lake     66 102  64 101  65  99 /   0  10   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      71 100  70 100  72  99 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           66 101  65 100  66  99 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 292143
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
243 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny and hot weather will continue over the Inland Northwest
through at least Friday. A gradual increase in clouds over the
next few days may knock temperatures down a few degrees, but mid
90s to low 100s will be common through the work week. The threat
for thunderstorms should increase over the weekend which may
knock temperatures down a bit more.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight...The region will remain under the control of a strong
upper level ridge. Any of the monsoonal moisture and instability
working slowly northward through northern Oregon/central Idaho
will generally remain south of our forecast area. However there is
a very small chance of a shower or thunderstorm early this evening
over the southern Idaho Panhandle or the extreme southeast corner
of Washington due to the greatest potential instability combined
with the weakest convective cap. After sunset most of the activity
will taper off rapidly. It will be a dry and mild night once again
with poor relative humidity recoveries for most locations. Clouds
will increase late tonight near the Oregon border as a pool of
mid-level instability and moisture surges slowly northward. We do
not expect any precipitation to occur...however there could be a
small field of ACCAS clouds and perhaps a sprinkle after sunrise.
fx

Wednesday through Friday: It is tough to get too excited about
precipitation chances for the majority of the Inland Northwest
Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday. The morning runs of the weather
models keep the lion`s share of the mid-level moisture and
surface based instability for thunderstorms over Oregon and
southern Idaho for the second half of the work week. The models
are in good agreement that a weak upper level disturbance off the
coast of northern California will dent the formidable upper level
ridge on Wednesday shunting a bit of mid-level moisture into the
Panhandle. The NAM looks to be the most aggressive generating
convection over the Idaho Panhandle mountains Wednesday afternoon
and evening, but it is tough to forecast more than a 20 percent
chance of showers and thunderstorms, even following the "moist"
NAM. Another marginal push of mid-level moisture is suggested on
Friday, possibly into the Cascades and southeast Washington. Once
again, it is tough to forecast more than 20 percent chance of
mainly terrain based convection.

Raw model output is generally hotter than MOS guidance Wednesday
through Friday. Given the relatively limited amount of cloud cover
expected, temperatures have been trended a bit hotter. 850mb
temperatures do not trend down much the second half of the week,
so it looks like a continuation of mid 90s to near 100 degrees for
most of the region. /GKoch

Friday night through Tuesday...Very odd interval of the forecast.
Pops were raised as at least three ECMWF runs hint fairly hard
that some remnant moisture and energy from post-tropical storm
Hernan gets ejected up from the East Pacific and into the
southerly/southwesterly flow on the west side of the longwave
ridge axis over the Western US. This leaves a good part of the
interval with increase pops and the QPF is something to ponder a
good time over. Many are noting some similarity in this solution
to what Hurricane Fabio did back around this same time period back
in late July of 2012. Discussion of this similarity last night
with other forecasters noted that remnants of Fabio were
associated with dropping 1.76 inches on Omak back on July 20,2012
along with 1.70 inches on Chelan and 0.92 inches Mazama on July
20,2012. Locations further east such as Spokane received 0.25
inches on July 20, 2012. Nobody is saying that this scenario will
repeat exactly as Fabio did in 2012 but it is worth looking back
and noting how much rain did fall back then. With this in mind as
far as Friday night through Sunday goes pops were increased some
with uncertainty noted as it is usually problematic to model
solution run to run consistency anytime tropical energy gets
ejected up into the mid-latitudes. Expectation is any/all
disturbances that may be remotely associated with remnant Hernan
moisture/energy will be to the east of the area and the prevailing
Southwest flow on the west side of the persistent longwave ridge
may steer additional shortwaves through either from the East
Pacific or up from the south but current model runs are not
aggressive in doing so. As such Sunday night through Tuesday pops
show a decrease and are lower in comparison to those over the
weekend. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at all forecast sites during
this period as strong ridge remains over the region. There could
be a weak disturbance moving across the OR/WA border after 12z
which could deliver increasing mid and high level clouds...but
little else. fx


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        68  97  68  96  67  93 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  64  95  63  94  62  92 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        58  95  58  94  59  91 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       71 102  71 101  71  98 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       59 102  58 101  59  97 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      55  93  55  92  54  91 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        63  93  61  93  62  90 /   0  10  20  10  10  10
Moses Lake     66 102  64 101  65  99 /   0  10   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      71 100  70 100  72  99 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           66 101  65 100  66  99 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 292143
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
243 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny and hot weather will continue over the Inland Northwest
through at least Friday. A gradual increase in clouds over the
next few days may knock temperatures down a few degrees, but mid
90s to low 100s will be common through the work week. The threat
for thunderstorms should increase over the weekend which may
knock temperatures down a bit more.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight...The region will remain under the control of a strong
upper level ridge. Any of the monsoonal moisture and instability
working slowly northward through northern Oregon/central Idaho
will generally remain south of our forecast area. However there is
a very small chance of a shower or thunderstorm early this evening
over the southern Idaho Panhandle or the extreme southeast corner
of Washington due to the greatest potential instability combined
with the weakest convective cap. After sunset most of the activity
will taper off rapidly. It will be a dry and mild night once again
with poor relative humidity recoveries for most locations. Clouds
will increase late tonight near the Oregon border as a pool of
mid-level instability and moisture surges slowly northward. We do
not expect any precipitation to occur...however there could be a
small field of ACCAS clouds and perhaps a sprinkle after sunrise.
fx

Wednesday through Friday: It is tough to get too excited about
precipitation chances for the majority of the Inland Northwest
Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday. The morning runs of the weather
models keep the lion`s share of the mid-level moisture and
surface based instability for thunderstorms over Oregon and
southern Idaho for the second half of the work week. The models
are in good agreement that a weak upper level disturbance off the
coast of northern California will dent the formidable upper level
ridge on Wednesday shunting a bit of mid-level moisture into the
Panhandle. The NAM looks to be the most aggressive generating
convection over the Idaho Panhandle mountains Wednesday afternoon
and evening, but it is tough to forecast more than a 20 percent
chance of showers and thunderstorms, even following the "moist"
NAM. Another marginal push of mid-level moisture is suggested on
Friday, possibly into the Cascades and southeast Washington. Once
again, it is tough to forecast more than 20 percent chance of
mainly terrain based convection.

Raw model output is generally hotter than MOS guidance Wednesday
through Friday. Given the relatively limited amount of cloud cover
expected, temperatures have been trended a bit hotter. 850mb
temperatures do not trend down much the second half of the week,
so it looks like a continuation of mid 90s to near 100 degrees for
most of the region. /GKoch

Friday night through Tuesday...Very odd interval of the forecast.
Pops were raised as at least three ECMWF runs hint fairly hard
that some remnant moisture and energy from post-tropical storm
Hernan gets ejected up from the East Pacific and into the
southerly/southwesterly flow on the west side of the longwave
ridge axis over the Western US. This leaves a good part of the
interval with increase pops and the QPF is something to ponder a
good time over. Many are noting some similarity in this solution
to what Hurricane Fabio did back around this same time period back
in late July of 2012. Discussion of this similarity last night
with other forecasters noted that remnants of Fabio were
associated with dropping 1.76 inches on Omak back on July 20,2012
along with 1.70 inches on Chelan and 0.92 inches Mazama on July
20,2012. Locations further east such as Spokane received 0.25
inches on July 20, 2012. Nobody is saying that this scenario will
repeat exactly as Fabio did in 2012 but it is worth looking back
and noting how much rain did fall back then. With this in mind as
far as Friday night through Sunday goes pops were increased some
with uncertainty noted as it is usually problematic to model
solution run to run consistency anytime tropical energy gets
ejected up into the mid-latitudes. Expectation is any/all
disturbances that may be remotely associated with remnant Hernan
moisture/energy will be to the east of the area and the prevailing
Southwest flow on the west side of the persistent longwave ridge
may steer additional shortwaves through either from the East
Pacific or up from the south but current model runs are not
aggressive in doing so. As such Sunday night through Tuesday pops
show a decrease and are lower in comparison to those over the
weekend. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at all forecast sites during
this period as strong ridge remains over the region. There could
be a weak disturbance moving across the OR/WA border after 12z
which could deliver increasing mid and high level clouds...but
little else. fx


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        68  97  68  96  67  93 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  64  95  63  94  62  92 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        58  95  58  94  59  91 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       71 102  71 101  71  98 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       59 102  58 101  59  97 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      55  93  55  92  54  91 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        63  93  61  93  62  90 /   0  10  20  10  10  10
Moses Lake     66 102  64 101  65  99 /   0  10   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      71 100  70 100  72  99 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           66 101  65 100  66  99 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 291856
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1155 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today...Based on morning sounding data from Spokane...this
should be the warmest day of the week and for some locations this
year. Most locations should be about 1-3f warmer than yesterday.
This was well handled in previous forecast...but based on actual
numbers...we decided to expand heat advisory into parts of the Okanogan
Valley...Wenatchee Area...and Waterville Plateau. Aside from the
heat we will see very little threat of convection deep enough to
support showers or thunderstorms. Model soundings are forecasting
good CAPE values in the Cascades and across the higher terrain of
the Idaho Panhandle and NE Washington...however there is also a
lot of convective inhibition to overcome. Lacking a significant
trigger...ie front or shortwave...this inhibition is nearly
impossible to overcome. Could we see a very isolated shower
develop later this afternoon or evening...yes...However the risk
is too small to place in the grids or forecasts. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at all forecast sites during
this period as strong ridge remains over the region. There could
be a weak disturbance moving across the OR/WA border after 12z
which could deliver increasing mid and high level clouds...but
little else. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        99  68  96  67  95  69 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  64  94  62  94  64 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Pullman        97  60  94  59  93  61 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston      105  72 101  68 100  72 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville      101  60  99  59  98  60 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      94  57  91  56  93  56 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        94  62  91  60  92  63 /   0   0  10  20  10  10
Moses Lake    104  67 101  65  99  66 /   0   0  10   0   0  10
Wenatchee     102  71 100  70  99  71 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak          103  66 102  65 100  66 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 291856
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1155 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today...Based on morning sounding data from Spokane...this
should be the warmest day of the week and for some locations this
year. Most locations should be about 1-3f warmer than yesterday.
This was well handled in previous forecast...but based on actual
numbers...we decided to expand heat advisory into parts of the Okanogan
Valley...Wenatchee Area...and Waterville Plateau. Aside from the
heat we will see very little threat of convection deep enough to
support showers or thunderstorms. Model soundings are forecasting
good CAPE values in the Cascades and across the higher terrain of
the Idaho Panhandle and NE Washington...however there is also a
lot of convective inhibition to overcome. Lacking a significant
trigger...ie front or shortwave...this inhibition is nearly
impossible to overcome. Could we see a very isolated shower
develop later this afternoon or evening...yes...However the risk
is too small to place in the grids or forecasts. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at all forecast sites during
this period as strong ridge remains over the region. There could
be a weak disturbance moving across the OR/WA border after 12z
which could deliver increasing mid and high level clouds...but
little else. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        99  68  96  67  95  69 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  64  94  62  94  64 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Pullman        97  60  94  59  93  61 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston      105  72 101  68 100  72 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville      101  60  99  59  98  60 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      94  57  91  56  93  56 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        94  62  91  60  92  63 /   0   0  10  20  10  10
Moses Lake    104  67 101  65  99  66 /   0   0  10   0   0  10
Wenatchee     102  71 100  70  99  71 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak          103  66 102  65 100  66 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 291856
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1155 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today...Based on morning sounding data from Spokane...this
should be the warmest day of the week and for some locations this
year. Most locations should be about 1-3f warmer than yesterday.
This was well handled in previous forecast...but based on actual
numbers...we decided to expand heat advisory into parts of the Okanogan
Valley...Wenatchee Area...and Waterville Plateau. Aside from the
heat we will see very little threat of convection deep enough to
support showers or thunderstorms. Model soundings are forecasting
good CAPE values in the Cascades and across the higher terrain of
the Idaho Panhandle and NE Washington...however there is also a
lot of convective inhibition to overcome. Lacking a significant
trigger...ie front or shortwave...this inhibition is nearly
impossible to overcome. Could we see a very isolated shower
develop later this afternoon or evening...yes...However the risk
is too small to place in the grids or forecasts. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at all forecast sites during
this period as strong ridge remains over the region. There could
be a weak disturbance moving across the OR/WA border after 12z
which could deliver increasing mid and high level clouds...but
little else. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        99  68  96  67  95  69 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  64  94  62  94  64 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Pullman        97  60  94  59  93  61 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston      105  72 101  68 100  72 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville      101  60  99  59  98  60 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      94  57  91  56  93  56 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        94  62  91  60  92  63 /   0   0  10  20  10  10
Moses Lake    104  67 101  65  99  66 /   0   0  10   0   0  10
Wenatchee     102  71 100  70  99  71 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak          103  66 102  65 100  66 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 291856
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1155 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today...Based on morning sounding data from Spokane...this
should be the warmest day of the week and for some locations this
year. Most locations should be about 1-3f warmer than yesterday.
This was well handled in previous forecast...but based on actual
numbers...we decided to expand heat advisory into parts of the Okanogan
Valley...Wenatchee Area...and Waterville Plateau. Aside from the
heat we will see very little threat of convection deep enough to
support showers or thunderstorms. Model soundings are forecasting
good CAPE values in the Cascades and across the higher terrain of
the Idaho Panhandle and NE Washington...however there is also a
lot of convective inhibition to overcome. Lacking a significant
trigger...ie front or shortwave...this inhibition is nearly
impossible to overcome. Could we see a very isolated shower
develop later this afternoon or evening...yes...However the risk
is too small to place in the grids or forecasts. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at all forecast sites during
this period as strong ridge remains over the region. There could
be a weak disturbance moving across the OR/WA border after 12z
which could deliver increasing mid and high level clouds...but
little else. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        99  68  96  67  95  69 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  64  94  62  94  64 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Pullman        97  60  94  59  93  61 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston      105  72 101  68 100  72 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Colville      101  60  99  59  98  60 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      94  57  91  56  93  56 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        94  62  91  60  92  63 /   0   0  10  20  10  10
Moses Lake    104  67 101  65  99  66 /   0   0  10   0   0  10
Wenatchee     102  71 100  70  99  71 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak          103  66 102  65 100  66 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 291635
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
934 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA...AS A RESULT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS
UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT IS VERY WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE
THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE
CASCADES...MAINLY LANE COUNTY. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL
PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.UPDATE...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME ALTOCUMULUS LIFTING INTO LANE COUNTY
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS INDICATES A BIT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...AND IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED IN ONE OF THESE
CLOUDS EAST OF EUGENE EARLIER THIS MORNING. A SIMILAR ALTOCUMULUS
BUILDUP IS HEADED TOWARD SANTIAM PASS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OUT OF THIS CELL EITHER. THUS WE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES EARLY TODAY AS
WELL AS THIS AFTERNOON.

BELIEVE THE ENVIRONMENT MOVING IN ALOFT OVER EAST LANE COUNTY IS
BETTER CHARACTERIZED BY THE 12Z MEDFORD SOUNDING THAN THE SALEM
SOUNDING. MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE MOISTURE ALOFT VERY
WELL. A WEAK DRY SLOT IS NOTABLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...HEADED
NORTH FROM THE OR/CA BORDER. THIS COULD PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE OREGON CASCADES
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WAS REFLECTED WELL IN THE MORNING
FORECAST AND MADE FEW CHANGES.WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 307 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE B.C. COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE FEATURES
AFFECTING THE WEATHER FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEK. LIGHT
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS. THE MARINE
LAYER REMAINS SHALLOW UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND IS LIMITED TO
THE COASTAL ZONES WITH A LITTLE SEEPAGE UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER.

VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE LOWER 500MB
HEIGHTS FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN THE
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP THE MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE
COAST TODAY. LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND MAY BRING SOME DRIZZLE TO THE
COAST.MARINE STRATUS SHOULD SEEP FURTHER INLAND AND TRY TO EXTEND
INLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND BUT ANYTHING WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND NOT HAVE
MUCH IMPACT. TEMPS INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH THURSDAY.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED FOR CLOUD
GROWTH UP TO THE -30C LEVEL AND WILL LIKELY NEED THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE CASCADES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. SO EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO
BE ISOLATED AT BEST. HOWEVER WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE A STRONG
CELL COULD DUMP A FAIR AMOUNT OF PCPN IN A SHORT TIME. THE PATTERN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ONE CHANGE IN THE MODELS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
DOWN TO 0.6 INCH FROM 1 INCH OVER YESTERDAYS RUN.


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO TRAVEL UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING OUR AREA. THESE IMPULSES BRING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE CASCADES...THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
SHORTWAVES AS MODEL RESOLUTION ACCURACY DECLINES RAPIDLY FURTHER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THESE SMALLER FEATURES. HAVE
DECREASED POPS FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED
ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR STORM CHANCES...AND DECREASED
CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO GREAT MODEL
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND LOCATION. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG IS HUGGING THE COAST AND SOME OF THE
COASTAL VALLEYS WITH IFR CONDITIONS. THE STRATUS MADE IT INTO
KKLS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRATUS BEGINNING
TO CLEAR INLAND...AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST BETWEEN
19 AND 21Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE INLAND
AIRPORTS. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA...MAINLY
SOUTH OF KSLE TODAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. TJ

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT N-NW SURFACE WINDS. CULLEN/TJ

&&

.MARINE...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE WEATHER THIS WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC AS A
THERMAL TROUGH HOLDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS RESULTING
IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OREGON WATERS. GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK.
HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO INCLUDE THE WATERS BEYOND 10 NM SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD.

THE SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL WINDS. STEEP SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
BACKGROUND LONGER PERIOD SEAS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP ON
THE BUOYS...BUT THESE ARE VERY SMALL...1 FOOT OR LESS...AND LESS
SIGNIFICANT TO THE MARINER THAN THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS. THE STEEP SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH AND HAVE
THEREFORE COMBINED THE SEAS. THE SEAS WILL BE THE STEEPEST WHEN
THE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST...DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND NEAR SHORE. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
     PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS AND FROM CASCADE
     HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 291635
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
934 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA...AS A RESULT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS
UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT IS VERY WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE
THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE
CASCADES...MAINLY LANE COUNTY. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL
PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.UPDATE...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME ALTOCUMULUS LIFTING INTO LANE COUNTY
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS INDICATES A BIT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...AND IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED IN ONE OF THESE
CLOUDS EAST OF EUGENE EARLIER THIS MORNING. A SIMILAR ALTOCUMULUS
BUILDUP IS HEADED TOWARD SANTIAM PASS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OUT OF THIS CELL EITHER. THUS WE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES EARLY TODAY AS
WELL AS THIS AFTERNOON.

BELIEVE THE ENVIRONMENT MOVING IN ALOFT OVER EAST LANE COUNTY IS
BETTER CHARACTERIZED BY THE 12Z MEDFORD SOUNDING THAN THE SALEM
SOUNDING. MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE MOISTURE ALOFT VERY
WELL. A WEAK DRY SLOT IS NOTABLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...HEADED
NORTH FROM THE OR/CA BORDER. THIS COULD PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE OREGON CASCADES
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WAS REFLECTED WELL IN THE MORNING
FORECAST AND MADE FEW CHANGES.WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 307 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE B.C. COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE FEATURES
AFFECTING THE WEATHER FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEK. LIGHT
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS. THE MARINE
LAYER REMAINS SHALLOW UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND IS LIMITED TO
THE COASTAL ZONES WITH A LITTLE SEEPAGE UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER.

VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE LOWER 500MB
HEIGHTS FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN THE
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP THE MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE
COAST TODAY. LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND MAY BRING SOME DRIZZLE TO THE
COAST.MARINE STRATUS SHOULD SEEP FURTHER INLAND AND TRY TO EXTEND
INLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND BUT ANYTHING WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND NOT HAVE
MUCH IMPACT. TEMPS INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH THURSDAY.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED FOR CLOUD
GROWTH UP TO THE -30C LEVEL AND WILL LIKELY NEED THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE CASCADES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. SO EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO
BE ISOLATED AT BEST. HOWEVER WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE A STRONG
CELL COULD DUMP A FAIR AMOUNT OF PCPN IN A SHORT TIME. THE PATTERN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ONE CHANGE IN THE MODELS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
DOWN TO 0.6 INCH FROM 1 INCH OVER YESTERDAYS RUN.


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO TRAVEL UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING OUR AREA. THESE IMPULSES BRING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE CASCADES...THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
SHORTWAVES AS MODEL RESOLUTION ACCURACY DECLINES RAPIDLY FURTHER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THESE SMALLER FEATURES. HAVE
DECREASED POPS FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED
ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR STORM CHANCES...AND DECREASED
CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO GREAT MODEL
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND LOCATION. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG IS HUGGING THE COAST AND SOME OF THE
COASTAL VALLEYS WITH IFR CONDITIONS. THE STRATUS MADE IT INTO
KKLS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRATUS BEGINNING
TO CLEAR INLAND...AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST BETWEEN
19 AND 21Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE INLAND
AIRPORTS. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA...MAINLY
SOUTH OF KSLE TODAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. TJ

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT N-NW SURFACE WINDS. CULLEN/TJ

&&

.MARINE...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE WEATHER THIS WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC AS A
THERMAL TROUGH HOLDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS RESULTING
IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OREGON WATERS. GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK.
HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO INCLUDE THE WATERS BEYOND 10 NM SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD.

THE SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL WINDS. STEEP SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
BACKGROUND LONGER PERIOD SEAS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP ON
THE BUOYS...BUT THESE ARE VERY SMALL...1 FOOT OR LESS...AND LESS
SIGNIFICANT TO THE MARINER THAN THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS. THE STEEP SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH AND HAVE
THEREFORE COMBINED THE SEAS. THE SEAS WILL BE THE STEEPEST WHEN
THE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST...DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND NEAR SHORE. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
     PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS AND FROM CASCADE
     HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 291635
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
934 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA...AS A RESULT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS
UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT IS VERY WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE
THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE
CASCADES...MAINLY LANE COUNTY. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL
PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.UPDATE...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME ALTOCUMULUS LIFTING INTO LANE COUNTY
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS INDICATES A BIT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...AND IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED IN ONE OF THESE
CLOUDS EAST OF EUGENE EARLIER THIS MORNING. A SIMILAR ALTOCUMULUS
BUILDUP IS HEADED TOWARD SANTIAM PASS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OUT OF THIS CELL EITHER. THUS WE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES EARLY TODAY AS
WELL AS THIS AFTERNOON.

BELIEVE THE ENVIRONMENT MOVING IN ALOFT OVER EAST LANE COUNTY IS
BETTER CHARACTERIZED BY THE 12Z MEDFORD SOUNDING THAN THE SALEM
SOUNDING. MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE MOISTURE ALOFT VERY
WELL. A WEAK DRY SLOT IS NOTABLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...HEADED
NORTH FROM THE OR/CA BORDER. THIS COULD PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE OREGON CASCADES
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WAS REFLECTED WELL IN THE MORNING
FORECAST AND MADE FEW CHANGES.WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 307 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE B.C. COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE FEATURES
AFFECTING THE WEATHER FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEK. LIGHT
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS. THE MARINE
LAYER REMAINS SHALLOW UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND IS LIMITED TO
THE COASTAL ZONES WITH A LITTLE SEEPAGE UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER.

VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE LOWER 500MB
HEIGHTS FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN THE
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP THE MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE
COAST TODAY. LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND MAY BRING SOME DRIZZLE TO THE
COAST.MARINE STRATUS SHOULD SEEP FURTHER INLAND AND TRY TO EXTEND
INLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND BUT ANYTHING WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND NOT HAVE
MUCH IMPACT. TEMPS INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH THURSDAY.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED FOR CLOUD
GROWTH UP TO THE -30C LEVEL AND WILL LIKELY NEED THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE CASCADES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. SO EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO
BE ISOLATED AT BEST. HOWEVER WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE A STRONG
CELL COULD DUMP A FAIR AMOUNT OF PCPN IN A SHORT TIME. THE PATTERN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ONE CHANGE IN THE MODELS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
DOWN TO 0.6 INCH FROM 1 INCH OVER YESTERDAYS RUN.


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO TRAVEL UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING OUR AREA. THESE IMPULSES BRING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE CASCADES...THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
SHORTWAVES AS MODEL RESOLUTION ACCURACY DECLINES RAPIDLY FURTHER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THESE SMALLER FEATURES. HAVE
DECREASED POPS FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED
ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR STORM CHANCES...AND DECREASED
CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO GREAT MODEL
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND LOCATION. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG IS HUGGING THE COAST AND SOME OF THE
COASTAL VALLEYS WITH IFR CONDITIONS. THE STRATUS MADE IT INTO
KKLS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRATUS BEGINNING
TO CLEAR INLAND...AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST BETWEEN
19 AND 21Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE INLAND
AIRPORTS. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA...MAINLY
SOUTH OF KSLE TODAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. TJ

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT N-NW SURFACE WINDS. CULLEN/TJ

&&

.MARINE...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE WEATHER THIS WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC AS A
THERMAL TROUGH HOLDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS RESULTING
IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OREGON WATERS. GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK.
HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO INCLUDE THE WATERS BEYOND 10 NM SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD.

THE SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL WINDS. STEEP SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
BACKGROUND LONGER PERIOD SEAS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP ON
THE BUOYS...BUT THESE ARE VERY SMALL...1 FOOT OR LESS...AND LESS
SIGNIFICANT TO THE MARINER THAN THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS. THE STEEP SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH AND HAVE
THEREFORE COMBINED THE SEAS. THE SEAS WILL BE THE STEEPEST WHEN
THE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST...DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND NEAR SHORE. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
     PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS AND FROM CASCADE
     HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 291635
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
934 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA...AS A RESULT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS
UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT IS VERY WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE
THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE
CASCADES...MAINLY LANE COUNTY. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL
PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.UPDATE...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME ALTOCUMULUS LIFTING INTO LANE COUNTY
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS INDICATES A BIT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...AND IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED IN ONE OF THESE
CLOUDS EAST OF EUGENE EARLIER THIS MORNING. A SIMILAR ALTOCUMULUS
BUILDUP IS HEADED TOWARD SANTIAM PASS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OUT OF THIS CELL EITHER. THUS WE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES EARLY TODAY AS
WELL AS THIS AFTERNOON.

BELIEVE THE ENVIRONMENT MOVING IN ALOFT OVER EAST LANE COUNTY IS
BETTER CHARACTERIZED BY THE 12Z MEDFORD SOUNDING THAN THE SALEM
SOUNDING. MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE MOISTURE ALOFT VERY
WELL. A WEAK DRY SLOT IS NOTABLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...HEADED
NORTH FROM THE OR/CA BORDER. THIS COULD PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE OREGON CASCADES
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WAS REFLECTED WELL IN THE MORNING
FORECAST AND MADE FEW CHANGES.WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 307 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE B.C. COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE FEATURES
AFFECTING THE WEATHER FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEK. LIGHT
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS. THE MARINE
LAYER REMAINS SHALLOW UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND IS LIMITED TO
THE COASTAL ZONES WITH A LITTLE SEEPAGE UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER.

VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE LOWER 500MB
HEIGHTS FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN THE
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP THE MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE
COAST TODAY. LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND MAY BRING SOME DRIZZLE TO THE
COAST.MARINE STRATUS SHOULD SEEP FURTHER INLAND AND TRY TO EXTEND
INLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND BUT ANYTHING WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND NOT HAVE
MUCH IMPACT. TEMPS INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH THURSDAY.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED FOR CLOUD
GROWTH UP TO THE -30C LEVEL AND WILL LIKELY NEED THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE CASCADES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. SO EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO
BE ISOLATED AT BEST. HOWEVER WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE A STRONG
CELL COULD DUMP A FAIR AMOUNT OF PCPN IN A SHORT TIME. THE PATTERN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ONE CHANGE IN THE MODELS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
DOWN TO 0.6 INCH FROM 1 INCH OVER YESTERDAYS RUN.


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO TRAVEL UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING OUR AREA. THESE IMPULSES BRING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE CASCADES...THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
SHORTWAVES AS MODEL RESOLUTION ACCURACY DECLINES RAPIDLY FURTHER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THESE SMALLER FEATURES. HAVE
DECREASED POPS FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED
ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR STORM CHANCES...AND DECREASED
CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO GREAT MODEL
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND LOCATION. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG IS HUGGING THE COAST AND SOME OF THE
COASTAL VALLEYS WITH IFR CONDITIONS. THE STRATUS MADE IT INTO
KKLS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRATUS BEGINNING
TO CLEAR INLAND...AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST BETWEEN
19 AND 21Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE INLAND
AIRPORTS. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA...MAINLY
SOUTH OF KSLE TODAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. TJ

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT N-NW SURFACE WINDS. CULLEN/TJ

&&

.MARINE...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE WEATHER THIS WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC AS A
THERMAL TROUGH HOLDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS RESULTING
IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OREGON WATERS. GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK.
HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO INCLUDE THE WATERS BEYOND 10 NM SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD.

THE SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL WINDS. STEEP SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
BACKGROUND LONGER PERIOD SEAS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP ON
THE BUOYS...BUT THESE ARE VERY SMALL...1 FOOT OR LESS...AND LESS
SIGNIFICANT TO THE MARINER THAN THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS. THE STEEP SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH AND HAVE
THEREFORE COMBINED THE SEAS. THE SEAS WILL BE THE STEEPEST WHEN
THE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST...DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND NEAR SHORE. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
     PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS AND FROM CASCADE
     HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 291635
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
934 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA...AS A RESULT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS
UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT IS VERY WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE
THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE
CASCADES...MAINLY LANE COUNTY. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL
PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.UPDATE...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME ALTOCUMULUS LIFTING INTO LANE COUNTY
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS INDICATES A BIT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...AND IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED IN ONE OF THESE
CLOUDS EAST OF EUGENE EARLIER THIS MORNING. A SIMILAR ALTOCUMULUS
BUILDUP IS HEADED TOWARD SANTIAM PASS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OUT OF THIS CELL EITHER. THUS WE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES EARLY TODAY AS
WELL AS THIS AFTERNOON.

BELIEVE THE ENVIRONMENT MOVING IN ALOFT OVER EAST LANE COUNTY IS
BETTER CHARACTERIZED BY THE 12Z MEDFORD SOUNDING THAN THE SALEM
SOUNDING. MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE MOISTURE ALOFT VERY
WELL. A WEAK DRY SLOT IS NOTABLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...HEADED
NORTH FROM THE OR/CA BORDER. THIS COULD PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE OREGON CASCADES
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WAS REFLECTED WELL IN THE MORNING
FORECAST AND MADE FEW CHANGES.WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 307 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE B.C. COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE FEATURES
AFFECTING THE WEATHER FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEK. LIGHT
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS. THE MARINE
LAYER REMAINS SHALLOW UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND IS LIMITED TO
THE COASTAL ZONES WITH A LITTLE SEEPAGE UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER.

VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE LOWER 500MB
HEIGHTS FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN THE
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP THE MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE
COAST TODAY. LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND MAY BRING SOME DRIZZLE TO THE
COAST.MARINE STRATUS SHOULD SEEP FURTHER INLAND AND TRY TO EXTEND
INLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND BUT ANYTHING WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND NOT HAVE
MUCH IMPACT. TEMPS INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH THURSDAY.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED FOR CLOUD
GROWTH UP TO THE -30C LEVEL AND WILL LIKELY NEED THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE CASCADES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. SO EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO
BE ISOLATED AT BEST. HOWEVER WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE A STRONG
CELL COULD DUMP A FAIR AMOUNT OF PCPN IN A SHORT TIME. THE PATTERN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ONE CHANGE IN THE MODELS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
DOWN TO 0.6 INCH FROM 1 INCH OVER YESTERDAYS RUN.


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO TRAVEL UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING OUR AREA. THESE IMPULSES BRING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE CASCADES...THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
SHORTWAVES AS MODEL RESOLUTION ACCURACY DECLINES RAPIDLY FURTHER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THESE SMALLER FEATURES. HAVE
DECREASED POPS FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED
ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR STORM CHANCES...AND DECREASED
CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO GREAT MODEL
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND LOCATION. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG IS HUGGING THE COAST AND SOME OF THE
COASTAL VALLEYS WITH IFR CONDITIONS. THE STRATUS MADE IT INTO
KKLS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRATUS BEGINNING
TO CLEAR INLAND...AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST BETWEEN
19 AND 21Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE INLAND
AIRPORTS. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA...MAINLY
SOUTH OF KSLE TODAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. TJ

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT N-NW SURFACE WINDS. CULLEN/TJ

&&

.MARINE...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE WEATHER THIS WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC AS A
THERMAL TROUGH HOLDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS RESULTING
IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OREGON WATERS. GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK.
HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO INCLUDE THE WATERS BEYOND 10 NM SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD.

THE SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL WINDS. STEEP SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
BACKGROUND LONGER PERIOD SEAS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP ON
THE BUOYS...BUT THESE ARE VERY SMALL...1 FOOT OR LESS...AND LESS
SIGNIFICANT TO THE MARINER THAN THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS. THE STEEP SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH AND HAVE
THEREFORE COMBINED THE SEAS. THE SEAS WILL BE THE STEEPEST WHEN
THE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST...DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND NEAR SHORE. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
     PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS AND FROM CASCADE
     HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 291627
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
927 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and dry weather will continue through midweek.
Thunderstorms chances will increase during the latter portion of
the work week as monsoonal moisture overspreads the Inland
Northwest.



&&

.DISCUSSION...

The Heat Advisory has been expanded this afternoon to include the
Wenatchee area and the Okanogan Valley. Eastern Washington Heat
Advisory Criteria is temperatures of 103 degrees or more.
Elevations below 2000 feet from Oroville to Brewster to Wenatchee
should easily reach criteria this afternoon. The light winds will
make conditions this afternoon particularly stifling today. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: High pressure will continue to keep mostly clear skies
and light winds over the aviation area for the next 24 hours with
just some high clouds moving in from the south. /EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        99  68  96  67  95  69 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  98  64  94  62  94  64 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Pullman        97  60  94  59  93  61 /   0  10  20  10  10  10
Lewiston      105  72 101  68 100  72 /   0  10  20  20  20  20
Colville      101  60  99  59  98  60 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      94  57  91  56  93  56 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        94  62  91  60  92  63 /   0   0  10  20  10  10
Moses Lake    104  67 101  65  99  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee     102  71 100  70  99  71 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak          103  66 102  65 100  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 291616
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AT LEAST. WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW WILL ALLOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST TO INTRUDE THROUGH THE STRAIT
OF JUAN DE FUCA AND LOWER CHEHALIS GAP DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS GREATER PUGET SOUND WILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED WELL INLAND OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN TENDS TO RESULT IN
VARYING DEGREES OF MOSTLY WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENTS. LOW STRATUS ALONG
THE COAST INTRUDED INTO THE LOWER CHEHALIS GAP AS FAR AS SHELTON AND
ALSO DOWN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND AREAS SURROUNDING THE EAST
ENTRANCE. THESE CLOUDS WILL EASILY BURN BACK TO THE COAST BY MIDDAY.
WITH LACK OF ANY REAL DEEP MARINE INFLUENCE OVER THE INTERIOR AND
LITTLE CHANGE IN 500 MB HEIGHTS OR 850 MB TEMPS...WILL STICK WITH
THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS WHICH SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST...AND AROUND THE STRAIT DUE TO MARINE AIR. HIGHS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM THE WATER INCLUDING THE GREATER PUGET SOUND
SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WARMEST ACROSS THE SW INTERIOR
TO TACOMA AREAS.

THE WESTERLY PUSH IN THE STRAIT MAY BE A BIT STRONGER THIS EVENING
POSSIBLY ENOUGH TO INDUCE GALES. SEE THE MARINE SECTION BELOW. 500
MB HEIGHTS COME DOWN JUST ABOUT 20M WHICH IS NOT TOO SIGNIFICANT AND
850 MB TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSTANT. MARINE AIR MAY FLOOD A BIT
FURTHER INLAND TOWARD THE N PUGET SOUND AND AREAS SURROUNDING THE
STRAIT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE AREAS WILL SEE MORE COOLING.
CENTRAL AND S PUGET SOUND...AND THE SW INTERIOR WILL PROBABLY REACH
THE LOW TO MID 80S.

500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN LITTLE CHANGED INTO THURSDAY AND ONSHORE FLOW
APPEARS WEAK. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S COAST AND AROUND THE
STRAIT WILL CONTINUE WITH WARMER HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AT SPOTS AWAY FROM THE WATERS. BEYOND THURSDAY THERE
COULD BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST DISCUSSED BELOW. WILL
EVALUATION THE FULL SUITE OF 12/18Z MODELS TODAY AND MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED TO THE LONG RANGE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MERCER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS 330 AM DISCUSSION...AFTER A FEW RUNS OF
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED MODELS A COUPLE OF WRINKLES IN THE
PROGS THIS MORNING. THE GFS HAS CHANGED SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH SOME WEAK TROUGHINESS OVER THE AREA. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE
STILL HIGH...MID 580S DMS SO THERE IS STILL NO PRECIPITATION
FORECAST. THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE FLOW ALOFT COULD RESULT IN A
LITTLE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE ECMWF BRINGS A SMALL LOW UP FROM THE SOUTH
ON SATURDAY WITH PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE CANADIAN ALSO HAS THIS FEATURE ALTHOUGH IT IS MUCH MORE
DRIER THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. WITH THESE SOLUTIONS BEING NEW TO THE
MODEL RUNS WILL STAY WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION WHICH
KEEPS THE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL GOING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. FELTON

&&

.CLIMATE...TODAY MARKS 5 YEARS SINCE THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS SET AT SEA-TAC WAS SET ALONG WITH OTHER RECORD
HIGHS. SEATTLE(SEA-TAC) 103...NWS SEATTLE 105...CENTRALIA
107...OLYMPIA 104...ELMA 104...EVERETT 100...BELLINGHAM
96...ABERDEEN 95.

IN ADDITION...A TOTAL OF 0.31 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED ON
THIS DAY SINCE RECORDS STARTED AT SEATTLE-TACOMA AIRPORT IN 1945
MAKING THIS THE DRIEST DAY OF THE YEAR IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL
FOR THE DAY AT SEA-TAC.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST COMBINED WITH A TROUGH ALONG ABOUT 140W WILL GIVE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURE EAST
OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THE AIR MASS IS
DRY AND STABLE...EXCEPT FOR A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST.

AT 8 AM THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EXTENDS
INLAND OVER THE COASTAL ZONES AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP
TO ABOUT SHELTON. SOME FOG AND VERY LOW STRATUS IS ALSO SEEN
EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TO NORTHERN
WHIDBEY ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN ISLANDS. WHERE THE FOG AND
STRATUS ARE SEEN...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED. OTHER
LOCATIONS ARE CLEAR. THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL RAPIDLY BURN BACK TO
THE COASTLINE BY ABOUT 20Z.

LATEST FORECAST MODELS SHOW ONSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASING RAPIDLY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG HEATING TAKES PLACE EAST OF THE
CASCADES. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONGER THAN LAST EVENING AND
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRATUS AND FOG PUSHING INLAND FARTHER THAN
THIS MORNING. THE TERMINAL MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WILL BE
KPAE...BUT KOLM MAY ALSO GET SOME FOG AND STRATUS WED MORNING. ANY
LOCATION GETTING STRATUS WILL LIKELY SEE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FOR
A FEW HOURS WED MORNING WHILE OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN CLEAR.
ALBRECHT

KSEA...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
NW 6 TO 9 KT AROUND 20Z THEN WILL VEER TO NE 5-7 KT AFTER 04Z THIS
EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS COMBINED
WITH LOWER PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE VARYING DEGREES
OF ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THAN IT HAS BEEN OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS. SO...A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 5 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO THE GALE WARNING AREA...THE WEST
ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT...THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY
INLET. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL GIVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE WED THROUGH SAT. SLIGHTLY
WEAKER ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL STILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE
     TO THE STRAIT 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 5 AM WEDNESDAY.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     TONIGHT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
     FUCA...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY INLET 5 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON UNTIL 5 AM WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML











000
FXUS66 KSEW 291616
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM SUNNY DAYS TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AT LEAST. WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW WILL ALLOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST TO INTRUDE THROUGH THE STRAIT
OF JUAN DE FUCA AND LOWER CHEHALIS GAP DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS GREATER PUGET SOUND WILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED WELL INLAND OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN TENDS TO RESULT IN
VARYING DEGREES OF MOSTLY WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENTS. LOW STRATUS ALONG
THE COAST INTRUDED INTO THE LOWER CHEHALIS GAP AS FAR AS SHELTON AND
ALSO DOWN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND AREAS SURROUNDING THE EAST
ENTRANCE. THESE CLOUDS WILL EASILY BURN BACK TO THE COAST BY MIDDAY.
WITH LACK OF ANY REAL DEEP MARINE INFLUENCE OVER THE INTERIOR AND
LITTLE CHANGE IN 500 MB HEIGHTS OR 850 MB TEMPS...WILL STICK WITH
THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS WHICH SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST...AND AROUND THE STRAIT DUE TO MARINE AIR. HIGHS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM THE WATER INCLUDING THE GREATER PUGET SOUND
SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WARMEST ACROSS THE SW INTERIOR
TO TACOMA AREAS.

THE WESTERLY PUSH IN THE STRAIT MAY BE A BIT STRONGER THIS EVENING
POSSIBLY ENOUGH TO INDUCE GALES. SEE THE MARINE SECTION BELOW. 500
MB HEIGHTS COME DOWN JUST ABOUT 20M WHICH IS NOT TOO SIGNIFICANT AND
850 MB TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSTANT. MARINE AIR MAY FLOOD A BIT
FURTHER INLAND TOWARD THE N PUGET SOUND AND AREAS SURROUNDING THE
STRAIT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE AREAS WILL SEE MORE COOLING.
CENTRAL AND S PUGET SOUND...AND THE SW INTERIOR WILL PROBABLY REACH
THE LOW TO MID 80S.

500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN LITTLE CHANGED INTO THURSDAY AND ONSHORE FLOW
APPEARS WEAK. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S COAST AND AROUND THE
STRAIT WILL CONTINUE WITH WARMER HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AT SPOTS AWAY FROM THE WATERS. BEYOND THURSDAY THERE
COULD BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST DISCUSSED BELOW. WILL
EVALUATION THE FULL SUITE OF 12/18Z MODELS TODAY AND MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED TO THE LONG RANGE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MERCER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS 330 AM DISCUSSION...AFTER A FEW RUNS OF
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED MODELS A COUPLE OF WRINKLES IN THE
PROGS THIS MORNING. THE GFS HAS CHANGED SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH SOME WEAK TROUGHINESS OVER THE AREA. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE
STILL HIGH...MID 580S DMS SO THERE IS STILL NO PRECIPITATION
FORECAST. THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE FLOW ALOFT COULD RESULT IN A
LITTLE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE ECMWF BRINGS A SMALL LOW UP FROM THE SOUTH
ON SATURDAY WITH PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE CANADIAN ALSO HAS THIS FEATURE ALTHOUGH IT IS MUCH MORE
DRIER THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. WITH THESE SOLUTIONS BEING NEW TO THE
MODEL RUNS WILL STAY WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION WHICH
KEEPS THE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL GOING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. FELTON

&&

.CLIMATE...TODAY MARKS 5 YEARS SINCE THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS SET AT SEA-TAC WAS SET ALONG WITH OTHER RECORD
HIGHS. SEATTLE(SEA-TAC) 103...NWS SEATTLE 105...CENTRALIA
107...OLYMPIA 104...ELMA 104...EVERETT 100...BELLINGHAM
96...ABERDEEN 95.

IN ADDITION...A TOTAL OF 0.31 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED ON
THIS DAY SINCE RECORDS STARTED AT SEATTLE-TACOMA AIRPORT IN 1945
MAKING THIS THE DRIEST DAY OF THE YEAR IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL
FOR THE DAY AT SEA-TAC.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST COMBINED WITH A TROUGH ALONG ABOUT 140W WILL GIVE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURE EAST
OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THE AIR MASS IS
DRY AND STABLE...EXCEPT FOR A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST.

AT 8 AM THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EXTENDS
INLAND OVER THE COASTAL ZONES AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP
TO ABOUT SHELTON. SOME FOG AND VERY LOW STRATUS IS ALSO SEEN
EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TO NORTHERN
WHIDBEY ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN ISLANDS. WHERE THE FOG AND
STRATUS ARE SEEN...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED. OTHER
LOCATIONS ARE CLEAR. THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL RAPIDLY BURN BACK TO
THE COASTLINE BY ABOUT 20Z.

LATEST FORECAST MODELS SHOW ONSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASING RAPIDLY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG HEATING TAKES PLACE EAST OF THE
CASCADES. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONGER THAN LAST EVENING AND
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRATUS AND FOG PUSHING INLAND FARTHER THAN
THIS MORNING. THE TERMINAL MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WILL BE
KPAE...BUT KOLM MAY ALSO GET SOME FOG AND STRATUS WED MORNING. ANY
LOCATION GETTING STRATUS WILL LIKELY SEE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FOR
A FEW HOURS WED MORNING WHILE OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN CLEAR.
ALBRECHT

KSEA...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
NW 6 TO 9 KT AROUND 20Z THEN WILL VEER TO NE 5-7 KT AFTER 04Z THIS
EVENING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS COMBINED
WITH LOWER PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL GIVE VARYING DEGREES
OF ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THAN IT HAS BEEN OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS. SO...A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 5 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO THE GALE WARNING AREA...THE WEST
ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT...THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY
INLET. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL GIVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE WED THROUGH SAT. SLIGHTLY
WEAKER ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL STILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE
     TO THE STRAIT 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 5 AM WEDNESDAY.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     TONIGHT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
     FUCA...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...AND ADMIRALTY INLET 5 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON UNTIL 5 AM WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












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