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000
FXUS66 KOTX 211130
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
430 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will provide a generally clear...warm and
dry rest of the weekend for the Inland Northwest. The new work
week will start out with continued above normal temperatures...but
a weak cold front will bring a chance of showers starting Monday
night. From mid-week onward an approaching deep trough will
increase the probability of rain with cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday: A ridge of high pressure will keep the
weather over the Inland Northwest unseasonably warm and dry.
Temperatures running about 2 to 5 degrees warmer than yesterday,
making it the warmest day of the week. North and east winds will
become lighter by afternoon and evening. By tonight, the upper
ridge axis shifts east and allows a stream of high level moisture
to creep northward from Oregon. This moisture should reach the
Cascades by Monday morning as a weak shortwave ripples through the
flow. This will be the start of the upper ridge breakdown. Expect
a slight chance of showers to develop over the Cascades Monday
morning as the moisture profile deepen and then the chance of
showers shifts across the northern mountains through the day and
evening. Instability looks to be capped so will keep mainly
showers in across the area. The exception would be across
southeast Washington into the central Idaho panhandle where there
could be the potential of lightning. It will continue to be mild
with the low level thermal ridge lying over the area. Low level
winds will shift to southwesterly by Monday afternoon as the
shortwave passes. /rfox.

Mon Nt through Thur Nt: With a weak wave still over the area Mon
Nt, we kept a small chance of rain showers for mainly the Idaho
Panhandle. Confidence is low that this short- wave will be an
efficient pcpn producer, but model guidance does show a decent
signal for the possibility of high- based convective pcpn Tues
morning. The ECMWF has been the wettest with this feature
compared to previous Nam and Gfs runs. However, the latter models
have trended wetter. A slow- moving cold front is expected to
make landfall Tues Nt and Wed morning along the Pacific Nw coast.
As it does, the low level flow backs to the SE and helps to drive
an ill-defined warm front north... which puts SE Wa and the Cntrl
Idaho Panhandle in the warm sector south of the front by late
Tues. This will keep the fcst warm and sunny. We`ve been favoring
a slower trend of the cold front as far as its Ewd progression
based on model trends and pattern recognition applied to the
north-south shearing offshore trough. The downstream effects of
this shearing will be a more meridional steering flow over Ern Wa
and N Idaho, leading to a more persistent thermal ridge and warm,
dry wx likely extending into Wed for all of N Idaho and far Ern
Wa. Confidence is increasing that this stalled front will not make
much eastward progress... likely not reaching the Idaho Panhandle
until Thurs. It`s not until Thurs that we see the front become
more progressive, leading to a more widespread pcpn threat for
all of Ern Wa and N Idaho. Even with the slight chance of thunder
for Thurs, pcpn amnts should only be a few hundredths for lower
elevation towns. bz

Friday through Sunday: A slow moving trough will be pushing
through the region during this period. It is expected to begin
Friday afternoon and exit by Sunday morning. The moisture
associated with system is fairly light. Most of the region could
see some amount of precip. Temperatures will be on an up swing
during this period. The highs will be around the upper 60s for
Friday and near mid 70s by Sunday. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: High pressure will continue to promote dry and VFR
conditions at TAF sites with light winds. /rfox

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        88  57  85  58  82  56 /   0   0  10  20  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  87  53  85  55  81  55 /   0   0   0  20  10   0
Pullman        89  52  84  55  83  55 /   0   0  10  20  10   0
Lewiston       92  61  90  61  88  61 /   0   0  10  20  10   0
Colville       88  49  87  52  83  52 /   0   0  10  30  10  10
Sandpoint      83  46  80  50  78  50 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Kellogg        85  54  81  55  80  55 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Moses Lake     91  56  90  56  83  58 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Wenatchee      91  64  88  61  81  61 /   0   0  10  20  10  20
Omak           91  55  87  56  82  57 /   0   0  10  20  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 211130
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
430 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will provide a generally clear...warm and
dry rest of the weekend for the Inland Northwest. The new work
week will start out with continued above normal temperatures...but
a weak cold front will bring a chance of showers starting Monday
night. From mid-week onward an approaching deep trough will
increase the probability of rain with cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday: A ridge of high pressure will keep the
weather over the Inland Northwest unseasonably warm and dry.
Temperatures running about 2 to 5 degrees warmer than yesterday,
making it the warmest day of the week. North and east winds will
become lighter by afternoon and evening. By tonight, the upper
ridge axis shifts east and allows a stream of high level moisture
to creep northward from Oregon. This moisture should reach the
Cascades by Monday morning as a weak shortwave ripples through the
flow. This will be the start of the upper ridge breakdown. Expect
a slight chance of showers to develop over the Cascades Monday
morning as the moisture profile deepen and then the chance of
showers shifts across the northern mountains through the day and
evening. Instability looks to be capped so will keep mainly
showers in across the area. The exception would be across
southeast Washington into the central Idaho panhandle where there
could be the potential of lightning. It will continue to be mild
with the low level thermal ridge lying over the area. Low level
winds will shift to southwesterly by Monday afternoon as the
shortwave passes. /rfox.

Mon Nt through Thur Nt: With a weak wave still over the area Mon
Nt, we kept a small chance of rain showers for mainly the Idaho
Panhandle. Confidence is low that this short- wave will be an
efficient pcpn producer, but model guidance does show a decent
signal for the possibility of high- based convective pcpn Tues
morning. The ECMWF has been the wettest with this feature
compared to previous Nam and Gfs runs. However, the latter models
have trended wetter. A slow- moving cold front is expected to
make landfall Tues Nt and Wed morning along the Pacific Nw coast.
As it does, the low level flow backs to the SE and helps to drive
an ill-defined warm front north... which puts SE Wa and the Cntrl
Idaho Panhandle in the warm sector south of the front by late
Tues. This will keep the fcst warm and sunny. We`ve been favoring
a slower trend of the cold front as far as its Ewd progression
based on model trends and pattern recognition applied to the
north-south shearing offshore trough. The downstream effects of
this shearing will be a more meridional steering flow over Ern Wa
and N Idaho, leading to a more persistent thermal ridge and warm,
dry wx likely extending into Wed for all of N Idaho and far Ern
Wa. Confidence is increasing that this stalled front will not make
much eastward progress... likely not reaching the Idaho Panhandle
until Thurs. It`s not until Thurs that we see the front become
more progressive, leading to a more widespread pcpn threat for
all of Ern Wa and N Idaho. Even with the slight chance of thunder
for Thurs, pcpn amnts should only be a few hundredths for lower
elevation towns. bz

Friday through Sunday: A slow moving trough will be pushing
through the region during this period. It is expected to begin
Friday afternoon and exit by Sunday morning. The moisture
associated with system is fairly light. Most of the region could
see some amount of precip. Temperatures will be on an up swing
during this period. The highs will be around the upper 60s for
Friday and near mid 70s by Sunday. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: High pressure will continue to promote dry and VFR
conditions at TAF sites with light winds. /rfox

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        88  57  85  58  82  56 /   0   0  10  20  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  87  53  85  55  81  55 /   0   0   0  20  10   0
Pullman        89  52  84  55  83  55 /   0   0  10  20  10   0
Lewiston       92  61  90  61  88  61 /   0   0  10  20  10   0
Colville       88  49  87  52  83  52 /   0   0  10  30  10  10
Sandpoint      83  46  80  50  78  50 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Kellogg        85  54  81  55  80  55 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Moses Lake     91  56  90  56  83  58 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Wenatchee      91  64  88  61  81  61 /   0   0  10  20  10  20
Omak           91  55  87  56  82  57 /   0   0  10  20  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSEW 211118
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED SYNOPSIS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
415 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA SHIFTING EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL DISSIPATE NEAR THE COAST MONDAY. A
STRONGER FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT. A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. STRATUS MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS STILL
OFFSHORE AT 10Z. TEMPERATURES AT 10Z/3 AM WERE IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH TODAY BEING THE LAST
WARM DAY FOR THE INTERIOR MORE THAN LIKELY FOR THE SEASON. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA SHIFTING EAST TODAY. TEMPERATURE ALOFT
STILL WARM EVEN WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST...850 MB TEMPERATURES
STILL PLUS 15C TO PLUS 19C AT 00Z MONDAY. OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS
THIS MORNING WILL TURN ONSHORE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PULL THE STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INLAND
ALONG THE COAST KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. FOR THE
INTERIOR EVEN WITH THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT A LITTLE COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY THE LACK OF MORNING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
UP QUICKER THAN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...MID 70S TO MID 80S.

LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING TONIGHT WITH A MARINE PUSH
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING PULLING THE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST
INLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN A NARROW RANGE...IN THE 50S.

LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
ALONG THE COAST OUT AHEAD OF A WEAKENING FRONT OFFSHORE. THE
COMBINATION OF THE STRATUS IN THE MORNING AND INCREASING MOD AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL KEEP SKIES AT LEAST MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER OVER THE INTERIOR WITH
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FRONT DISSIPATING NEAR THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE FIRST ORGANIZED SYSTEM OF FALL APPROACHING THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING. 00Z MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT.
BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE INCREASED THE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND GONE WITH LIKELY POPS
ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW NEAR 135W MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WETTEST
SYSTEM IN OVER A MONTH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OVER AN INCH OF RAIN
ALONG THE COAST...OLYMPICS AND LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AND OVER A HALF
AN INCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR. CURRENT MODEL TIMING HAS
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY SO HAVE GONE
WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE MORNING. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW REMAINING
OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A DEEP
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW DISSIPATING ON FRIDAY WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INLAND KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATING A LITTLE BIT OF
RIDGE ON SATURDAY WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE RIDGING.
GFS STILL HAS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION HOLDING ON IN THE TRANSITION
TO A RIDGE SATURDAY MORNING SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AS WELL. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. AT THE SURFACE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY
WITH A RIDGE MOVING OVER THE COAST. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. AIR MASS GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE.

STRATUS WILL PUSH NORTH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST TODAY...THEN PUSH
INLAND TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING.

KSEA...CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY 4-8 KNOTS TODAY.
COASTAL STRATUS SHOULD REACH THE TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT...PROBABLY
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME FOG. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
TO THE COAST. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON MONDAY. A
STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING GALE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KSEW 211118
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED SYNOPSIS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
415 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA SHIFTING EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL DISSIPATE NEAR THE COAST MONDAY. A
STRONGER FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT. A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. STRATUS MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS STILL
OFFSHORE AT 10Z. TEMPERATURES AT 10Z/3 AM WERE IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH TODAY BEING THE LAST
WARM DAY FOR THE INTERIOR MORE THAN LIKELY FOR THE SEASON. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA SHIFTING EAST TODAY. TEMPERATURE ALOFT
STILL WARM EVEN WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST...850 MB TEMPERATURES
STILL PLUS 15C TO PLUS 19C AT 00Z MONDAY. OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS
THIS MORNING WILL TURN ONSHORE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PULL THE STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INLAND
ALONG THE COAST KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. FOR THE
INTERIOR EVEN WITH THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT A LITTLE COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY THE LACK OF MORNING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
UP QUICKER THAN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...MID 70S TO MID 80S.

LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING TONIGHT WITH A MARINE PUSH
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING PULLING THE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST
INLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN A NARROW RANGE...IN THE 50S.

LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
ALONG THE COAST OUT AHEAD OF A WEAKENING FRONT OFFSHORE. THE
COMBINATION OF THE STRATUS IN THE MORNING AND INCREASING MOD AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL KEEP SKIES AT LEAST MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER OVER THE INTERIOR WITH
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FRONT DISSIPATING NEAR THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE FIRST ORGANIZED SYSTEM OF FALL APPROACHING THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING. 00Z MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT.
BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE INCREASED THE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND GONE WITH LIKELY POPS
ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW NEAR 135W MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WETTEST
SYSTEM IN OVER A MONTH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OVER AN INCH OF RAIN
ALONG THE COAST...OLYMPICS AND LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AND OVER A HALF
AN INCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR. CURRENT MODEL TIMING HAS
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY SO HAVE GONE
WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE MORNING. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW REMAINING
OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A DEEP
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW DISSIPATING ON FRIDAY WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INLAND KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATING A LITTLE BIT OF
RIDGE ON SATURDAY WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE RIDGING.
GFS STILL HAS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION HOLDING ON IN THE TRANSITION
TO A RIDGE SATURDAY MORNING SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AS WELL. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. AT THE SURFACE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY
WITH A RIDGE MOVING OVER THE COAST. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. AIR MASS GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE.

STRATUS WILL PUSH NORTH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST TODAY...THEN PUSH
INLAND TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING.

KSEA...CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY 4-8 KNOTS TODAY.
COASTAL STRATUS SHOULD REACH THE TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT...PROBABLY
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME FOG. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
TO THE COAST. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON MONDAY. A
STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING GALE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML











000
FXUS66 KSEW 211113
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
410 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA SHIFTING EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. A
STRONGER FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT. A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. STRATUS MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS STILL
OFFSHORE AT 10Z. TEMPERATURES AT 10Z/3 AM WERE IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH TODAY BEING THE LAST
WARM DAY FOR THE INTERIOR MORE THAN LIKELY FOR THE SEASON. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA SHIFTING EAST TODAY. TEMPERATURE ALOFT
STILL WARM EVEN WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST...850 MB TEMPERATURES
STILL PLUS 15C TO PLUS 19C AT 00Z MONDAY. OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS
THIS MORNING WILL TURN ONSHORE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PULL THE STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INLAND
ALONG THE COAST KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. FOR THE
INTERIOR EVEN WITH THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT A LITTLE COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY THE LACK OF MORNING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
UP QUICKER THAN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...MID 70S TO MID 80S.

LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING TONIGHT WITH A MARINE PUSH
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING PULLING THE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST
INLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN A NARROW RANGE...IN THE 50S.

LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
ALONG THE COAST OUT AHEAD OF A WEAKENING FRONT OFFSHORE. THE
COMBINATION OF THE STRATUS IN THE MORNING AND INCREASING MOD AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL KEEP SKIES AT LEAST MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER OVER THE INTERIOR WITH
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FRONT DISSIPATING NEAR THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE FIRST ORGANIZED SYSTEM OF FALL APPROACHING THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING. 00Z MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT.
BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE INCREASED THE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND GONE WITH LIKELY POPS
ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW NEAR 135W MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WETTEST
SYSTEM IN OVER A MONTH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OVER AN INCH OF RAIN
ALONG THE COAST...OLYMPICS AND LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AND OVER A HALF
AN INCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR. CURRENT MODEL TIMING HAS
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY SO HAVE GONE
WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE MORNING. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW REMAINING
OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A DEEP
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW DISSIPATING ON FRIDAY WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INLAND KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATING A LITTLE BIT OF
RIDGE ON SATURDAY WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE RIDGING.
GFS STILL HAS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION HOLDING ON IN THE TRANSITION
TO A RIDGE SATURDAY MORNING SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AS WELL. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. AT THE SURFACE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY
WITH A RIDGE MOVING OVER THE COAST. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. AIR MASS GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE.

STRATUS WILL PUSH NORTH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST TODAY...THEN PUSH
INLAND TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING.

KSEA...CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY 4-8 KNOTS TODAY.
COASTAL STRATUS SHOULD REACH THE TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT...PROBABLY
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME FOG. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
TO THE COAST. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON MONDAY. A
STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING GALE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KSEW 211113
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
410 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA SHIFTING EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. A
STRONGER FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT. A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. STRATUS MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS STILL
OFFSHORE AT 10Z. TEMPERATURES AT 10Z/3 AM WERE IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH TODAY BEING THE LAST
WARM DAY FOR THE INTERIOR MORE THAN LIKELY FOR THE SEASON. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA SHIFTING EAST TODAY. TEMPERATURE ALOFT
STILL WARM EVEN WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST...850 MB TEMPERATURES
STILL PLUS 15C TO PLUS 19C AT 00Z MONDAY. OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS
THIS MORNING WILL TURN ONSHORE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PULL THE STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INLAND
ALONG THE COAST KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. FOR THE
INTERIOR EVEN WITH THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT A LITTLE COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY THE LACK OF MORNING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
UP QUICKER THAN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...MID 70S TO MID 80S.

LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING TONIGHT WITH A MARINE PUSH
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING PULLING THE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST
INLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN A NARROW RANGE...IN THE 50S.

LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
ALONG THE COAST OUT AHEAD OF A WEAKENING FRONT OFFSHORE. THE
COMBINATION OF THE STRATUS IN THE MORNING AND INCREASING MOD AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL KEEP SKIES AT LEAST MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER OVER THE INTERIOR WITH
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FRONT DISSIPATING NEAR THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE FIRST ORGANIZED SYSTEM OF FALL APPROACHING THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING. 00Z MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT.
BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE INCREASED THE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND GONE WITH LIKELY POPS
ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW NEAR 135W MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WETTEST
SYSTEM IN OVER A MONTH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OVER AN INCH OF RAIN
ALONG THE COAST...OLYMPICS AND LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AND OVER A HALF
AN INCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR. CURRENT MODEL TIMING HAS
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY SO HAVE GONE
WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE MORNING. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW REMAINING
OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A DEEP
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW DISSIPATING ON FRIDAY WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INLAND KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATING A LITTLE BIT OF
RIDGE ON SATURDAY WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE RIDGING.
GFS STILL HAS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION HOLDING ON IN THE TRANSITION
TO A RIDGE SATURDAY MORNING SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AS WELL. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. AT THE SURFACE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY
WITH A RIDGE MOVING OVER THE COAST. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. AIR MASS GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE.

STRATUS WILL PUSH NORTH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST TODAY...THEN PUSH
INLAND TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING.

KSEA...CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY 4-8 KNOTS TODAY.
COASTAL STRATUS SHOULD REACH THE TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT...PROBABLY
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME FOG. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
TO THE COAST. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON MONDAY. A
STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING GALE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KSEW 211113
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
410 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA SHIFTING EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. A
STRONGER FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT. A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. STRATUS MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS STILL
OFFSHORE AT 10Z. TEMPERATURES AT 10Z/3 AM WERE IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH TODAY BEING THE LAST
WARM DAY FOR THE INTERIOR MORE THAN LIKELY FOR THE SEASON. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA SHIFTING EAST TODAY. TEMPERATURE ALOFT
STILL WARM EVEN WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST...850 MB TEMPERATURES
STILL PLUS 15C TO PLUS 19C AT 00Z MONDAY. OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS
THIS MORNING WILL TURN ONSHORE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PULL THE STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INLAND
ALONG THE COAST KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. FOR THE
INTERIOR EVEN WITH THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT A LITTLE COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY THE LACK OF MORNING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
UP QUICKER THAN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...MID 70S TO MID 80S.

LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING TONIGHT WITH A MARINE PUSH
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING PULLING THE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST
INLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN A NARROW RANGE...IN THE 50S.

LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
ALONG THE COAST OUT AHEAD OF A WEAKENING FRONT OFFSHORE. THE
COMBINATION OF THE STRATUS IN THE MORNING AND INCREASING MOD AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL KEEP SKIES AT LEAST MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER OVER THE INTERIOR WITH
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FRONT DISSIPATING NEAR THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE FIRST ORGANIZED SYSTEM OF FALL APPROACHING THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING. 00Z MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT.
BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE INCREASED THE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND GONE WITH LIKELY POPS
ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW NEAR 135W MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WETTEST
SYSTEM IN OVER A MONTH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OVER AN INCH OF RAIN
ALONG THE COAST...OLYMPICS AND LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AND OVER A HALF
AN INCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR. CURRENT MODEL TIMING HAS
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY SO HAVE GONE
WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE MORNING. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW REMAINING
OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A DEEP
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW DISSIPATING ON FRIDAY WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INLAND KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATING A LITTLE BIT OF
RIDGE ON SATURDAY WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE RIDGING.
GFS STILL HAS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION HOLDING ON IN THE TRANSITION
TO A RIDGE SATURDAY MORNING SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AS WELL. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. AT THE SURFACE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY
WITH A RIDGE MOVING OVER THE COAST. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. AIR MASS GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE.

STRATUS WILL PUSH NORTH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST TODAY...THEN PUSH
INLAND TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING.

KSEA...CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY 4-8 KNOTS TODAY.
COASTAL STRATUS SHOULD REACH THE TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT...PROBABLY
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME FOG. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
TO THE COAST. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON MONDAY. A
STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING GALE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KSEW 211113
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
410 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA SHIFTING EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. A
STRONGER FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT. A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. STRATUS MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS STILL
OFFSHORE AT 10Z. TEMPERATURES AT 10Z/3 AM WERE IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH TODAY BEING THE LAST
WARM DAY FOR THE INTERIOR MORE THAN LIKELY FOR THE SEASON. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA SHIFTING EAST TODAY. TEMPERATURE ALOFT
STILL WARM EVEN WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST...850 MB TEMPERATURES
STILL PLUS 15C TO PLUS 19C AT 00Z MONDAY. OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS
THIS MORNING WILL TURN ONSHORE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PULL THE STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INLAND
ALONG THE COAST KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. FOR THE
INTERIOR EVEN WITH THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT A LITTLE COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY THE LACK OF MORNING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
UP QUICKER THAN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...MID 70S TO MID 80S.

LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING TONIGHT WITH A MARINE PUSH
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING PULLING THE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST
INLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN A NARROW RANGE...IN THE 50S.

LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
ALONG THE COAST OUT AHEAD OF A WEAKENING FRONT OFFSHORE. THE
COMBINATION OF THE STRATUS IN THE MORNING AND INCREASING MOD AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL KEEP SKIES AT LEAST MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER OVER THE INTERIOR WITH
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FRONT DISSIPATING NEAR THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE FIRST ORGANIZED SYSTEM OF FALL APPROACHING THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING. 00Z MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT.
BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE INCREASED THE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND GONE WITH LIKELY POPS
ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW NEAR 135W MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WETTEST
SYSTEM IN OVER A MONTH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OVER AN INCH OF RAIN
ALONG THE COAST...OLYMPICS AND LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AND OVER A HALF
AN INCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR. CURRENT MODEL TIMING HAS
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY SO HAVE GONE
WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE MORNING. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW REMAINING
OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A DEEP
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW DISSIPATING ON FRIDAY WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INLAND KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATING A LITTLE BIT OF
RIDGE ON SATURDAY WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE RIDGING.
GFS STILL HAS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION HOLDING ON IN THE TRANSITION
TO A RIDGE SATURDAY MORNING SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AS WELL. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. AT THE SURFACE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY
WITH A RIDGE MOVING OVER THE COAST. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. AIR MASS GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE.

STRATUS WILL PUSH NORTH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST TODAY...THEN PUSH
INLAND TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING.

KSEA...CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY 4-8 KNOTS TODAY.
COASTAL STRATUS SHOULD REACH THE TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT...PROBABLY
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME FOG. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
TO THE COAST. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON MONDAY. A
STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING GALE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KOTX 210943
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
243 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will provide a generally clear...warm and
dry rest of the weekend for the Inland Northwest. The new work
week will start out with continued above normal temperatures...but
a weak cold front will bring a chance of showers starting Monday
night. From mid-week onward an approaching deep trough will
increase the probability of rain with cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday: A ridge of high pressure will keep the
weather over the Inland Northwest unseasonably warm and dry.
Temperatures running about 2 to 5 degrees warmer than yesterday,
making it the warmest day of the week. North and east winds will
become lighter by afternoon and evening. By tonight, the upper
ridge axis shifts east and allows a stream of high level moisture
to creep northward from Oregon. This moisture should reach the
Cascades by Monday morning as a weak shortwave ripples through the
flow. This will be the start of the upper ridge breakdown. Expect
a slight chance of showers to develop over the Cascades Monday
morning as the moisture profile deepen and then the chance of
showers shifts across the northern mountains through the day and
evening. Instability looks to be capped so will keep mainly
showers in across the area. The exception would be across
southeast Washington into the central Idaho panhandle where there
could be the potential of lightning. It will continue to be mild
with the low level thermal ridge lying over the area. Low level
winds will shift to southwesterly by Monday afternoon as the
shortwave passes. /rfox.

Mon Nt through Thur Nt: With a weak wave still over the area Mon
Nt, we kept a small chance of rain showers for mainly the Idaho
Panhandle. Confidence is low that this short- wave will be an
efficient pcpn producer, but model guidance does show a decent
signal for the possibility of high- based convective pcpn Tues
morning. The ECMWF has been the wettest with this feature
compared to previous Nam and Gfs runs. However, the latter models
have trended wetter. A slow- moving cold front is expected to
make landfall Tues Nt and Wed morning along the Pacific Nw coast.
As it does, the low level flow backs to the SE and helps to drive
an ill-defined warm front north... which puts SE Wa and the Cntrl
Idaho Panhandle in the warm sector south of the front by late
Tues. This will keep the fcst warm and sunny. We`ve been favoring
a slower trend of the cold front as far as its Ewd progression
based on model trends and pattern recognition applied to the
north-south shearing offshore trough. The downstream effects of
this shearing will be a more meridional steering flow over Ern Wa
and N Idaho, leading to a more persistent thermal ridge and warm,
dry wx likely extending into Wed for all of N Idaho and far Ern
Wa. Confidence is increasing that this stalled front will not make
much eastward progress... likely not reaching the Idaho Panhandle
until Thurs. It`s not until Thurs that we see the front become
more progressive, leading to a more widespread pcpn threat for
all of Ern Wa and N Idaho. Even with the slight chance of thunder
for Thurs, pcpn amnts should only be a few hundredths for lower
elevation towns. bz

Friday through Sunday: A slow moving trough will be pushing
through the region during this period. It is expected to begin
Friday afternoon and exit by Sunday morning. The moisture
associated with system is fairly light. Most of the region could
see some amount of precip. Temperatures will be on an up swing
during this period. The highs will be around the upper 60s for
Friday and near mid 70s by Sunday. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure will promote dry and VFR conditions at
TAF sites, with light diurnal winds. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        88  57  85  58  82  56 /   0   0  10  20  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  87  53  85  55  81  55 /   0   0   0  20  10   0
Pullman        89  52  84  55  83  55 /   0   0  10  20  10   0
Lewiston       92  61  90  61  88  61 /   0   0  10  20  10   0
Colville       88  49  87  52  83  52 /   0   0  10  30  10  10
Sandpoint      83  46  80  50  78  50 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Kellogg        85  54  81  55  80  55 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Moses Lake     91  56  90  56  83  58 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Wenatchee      91  64  88  61  81  61 /   0   0  10  20  10  20
Omak           91  55  87  56  82  57 /   0   0  10  20  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 210943
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
243 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will provide a generally clear...warm and
dry rest of the weekend for the Inland Northwest. The new work
week will start out with continued above normal temperatures...but
a weak cold front will bring a chance of showers starting Monday
night. From mid-week onward an approaching deep trough will
increase the probability of rain with cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday: A ridge of high pressure will keep the
weather over the Inland Northwest unseasonably warm and dry.
Temperatures running about 2 to 5 degrees warmer than yesterday,
making it the warmest day of the week. North and east winds will
become lighter by afternoon and evening. By tonight, the upper
ridge axis shifts east and allows a stream of high level moisture
to creep northward from Oregon. This moisture should reach the
Cascades by Monday morning as a weak shortwave ripples through the
flow. This will be the start of the upper ridge breakdown. Expect
a slight chance of showers to develop over the Cascades Monday
morning as the moisture profile deepen and then the chance of
showers shifts across the northern mountains through the day and
evening. Instability looks to be capped so will keep mainly
showers in across the area. The exception would be across
southeast Washington into the central Idaho panhandle where there
could be the potential of lightning. It will continue to be mild
with the low level thermal ridge lying over the area. Low level
winds will shift to southwesterly by Monday afternoon as the
shortwave passes. /rfox.

Mon Nt through Thur Nt: With a weak wave still over the area Mon
Nt, we kept a small chance of rain showers for mainly the Idaho
Panhandle. Confidence is low that this short- wave will be an
efficient pcpn producer, but model guidance does show a decent
signal for the possibility of high- based convective pcpn Tues
morning. The ECMWF has been the wettest with this feature
compared to previous Nam and Gfs runs. However, the latter models
have trended wetter. A slow- moving cold front is expected to
make landfall Tues Nt and Wed morning along the Pacific Nw coast.
As it does, the low level flow backs to the SE and helps to drive
an ill-defined warm front north... which puts SE Wa and the Cntrl
Idaho Panhandle in the warm sector south of the front by late
Tues. This will keep the fcst warm and sunny. We`ve been favoring
a slower trend of the cold front as far as its Ewd progression
based on model trends and pattern recognition applied to the
north-south shearing offshore trough. The downstream effects of
this shearing will be a more meridional steering flow over Ern Wa
and N Idaho, leading to a more persistent thermal ridge and warm,
dry wx likely extending into Wed for all of N Idaho and far Ern
Wa. Confidence is increasing that this stalled front will not make
much eastward progress... likely not reaching the Idaho Panhandle
until Thurs. It`s not until Thurs that we see the front become
more progressive, leading to a more widespread pcpn threat for
all of Ern Wa and N Idaho. Even with the slight chance of thunder
for Thurs, pcpn amnts should only be a few hundredths for lower
elevation towns. bz

Friday through Sunday: A slow moving trough will be pushing
through the region during this period. It is expected to begin
Friday afternoon and exit by Sunday morning. The moisture
associated with system is fairly light. Most of the region could
see some amount of precip. Temperatures will be on an up swing
during this period. The highs will be around the upper 60s for
Friday and near mid 70s by Sunday. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure will promote dry and VFR conditions at
TAF sites, with light diurnal winds. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        88  57  85  58  82  56 /   0   0  10  20  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  87  53  85  55  81  55 /   0   0   0  20  10   0
Pullman        89  52  84  55  83  55 /   0   0  10  20  10   0
Lewiston       92  61  90  61  88  61 /   0   0  10  20  10   0
Colville       88  49  87  52  83  52 /   0   0  10  30  10  10
Sandpoint      83  46  80  50  78  50 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Kellogg        85  54  81  55  80  55 /   0   0   0  20  20  10
Moses Lake     91  56  90  56  83  58 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Wenatchee      91  64  88  61  81  61 /   0   0  10  20  10  20
Omak           91  55  87  56  82  57 /   0   0  10  20  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 210933
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
231 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP THE COAST CLOUDY
AND COOL. FURTHER INLAND...NO CLOUDS BUT A BIT COOLER AS OCEAN AIR
SPILLS THROUGH THE COAST RANGES.  MILD DAYS FOR MON AND TUE...BUT
CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE. SHOULD SEE RAIN TUE NIGHT AND WED...WITH
SHOWERY WEATHER AFTERWARDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...LOW STRATUS HAS RAPIDLY SPREAD UP THE OREGON COAST
OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUES TO PUSH UP THE WASHINGTON COAST. THERMAL
TROUGH NOW LIES FROM FAR NW WASHINGTON OVER THE WILLAPA HILLS THEN
OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THIS IS THE LINE MARKING THE SHIFT FROM
OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE WINDS.  THIS THERMAL WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
CASCADES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW ALL WINDS TO BECOMING
ONSHORE BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE NOT ALL THAT STRONG
OVER THE INTERIOR...WILL BE ENOUGH TO HOLD TODAYS HIGHTEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOW CLOUDS WILL NOT MOVE MUCH ALONG THE
COAST...KEEPING TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH MARINE LAYER
DEEPENING AND PUSHING MARINE CLOUDS INTO THE INTERIOR. MORNING LOW
CLOUDS ON MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP. BUT IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER
INLAND WITH HIGHS ONLY THE 70S. AT THE SAME TIME...A FRONTAL SYSTEM
ALONG 145W WILL BE APPROACHING THE PAC NW COAST. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL STRETCH APART WHILE APPROACHING THE
COAST...WITH THE BULK OF LEFTOVER ENERGY HEADED TOWARD BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THE FRONT MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH FOR SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN ALONG THE WASHINGTON AND N OREGON COAST.

WILL ALSO KEEP MINOR THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH CASCADES OF
OREGON FOR MONDAY. THIS DUE TO MOISTURE ROTATING UP OUT OF NEVADA
INTO SOUTHERN OREGON. SINCE SO CLOSE TO THE MOISTURE POOL...CAN NOT
RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...AND WILL BE A BIT
STRONGER. SO SEEMS TUESDAY WILL BE A REPEAT OF MONDAY...BUT THREAT OF
MOISTURE PUSHES FURTHER INLAND INTO THE COAST RANGES. HAVE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER...AND PUT THREAT OF OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES OVER INTERIOR
FOR TUE.     ROCKEY.

.LONG TERM...FIRST SIGNIFICANT FRONT OF THE FALL SEASON ARRIVES LATE
TUE NIGHT AND WED. VERY WELL COULD SEE AROUND 1 INCH OF RAIN IN THE
COAST RANGES...AND WIDESPREAD 0.33 TO 0.50 INCH ACROSS INLAND AREAS.
FRONT IS ARRIVING IN A SOUTH TO NORTH ORIENTATION. AS A RESULT...IT
WILL BE SLOWING ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO THE PAC NW. SO RAINFALL
HAS POTENTIAL TO BE A BIT HEAVIER OVER THE WEST SLOPES OF THE COAST
AND CASCADES RANGES. WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER FOR
WED. AFTER THAT FRONT CLEARS THE REGION WED EVENING... AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH SHOWERS AND COOL WEATHER. SUCH COOL DAMP
WEATHER WILL GO FAR IN QUIETING WILDFIRE ACTIVITY. ROCKEY.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST INLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MARINE STRATUS WILL THEN FILL THE VALLEY WITH LOW MVFR CIGS BY
MONDAY MORNING. AT THE COAST...IFR TO LIFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN FOG CONTINUE TODAY. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE TONIGHT TO 1000-1500 FT RANGE AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
THE REGION.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 09Z MON THEN
INCREASING CHANCES FOR LOW MVFR CIGS. LOW MVFR CIGS LIKELY BY 12Z
MON.
&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS
THE COASTAL TROUGH SPREAD INTO WASHINGTON. LOW MARINE STRATUS HAS
SPREAD INTO THE WATERS AS WELL.  WINDS WERE EARLIER THOUGHT TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR TODAY...BUT APPEARS IT
WILL MEET CRITERIA OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OUT TO ABOUT 30-40 NM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL EASE ACROSS ALL WATERS THIS EVENING. THE NEXT WEAKENING FRONT
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
ON TUE THROUGH THU AS A FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRES ROLLS UP TOWARD THE
B.C. COAST.

WESTERLY SWELL 6 FT STARTS OUT THE DAY THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDES OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THEN RISE ABOVE 10 FT WED BUT SHOULD NOT
EXCEED 15 FT. MODEL DIFFERENCES AFTER THU INCREASE UNCERTAINTY
AND CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. /MH
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60
NM.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 210933
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
231 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP THE COAST CLOUDY
AND COOL. FURTHER INLAND...NO CLOUDS BUT A BIT COOLER AS OCEAN AIR
SPILLS THROUGH THE COAST RANGES.  MILD DAYS FOR MON AND TUE...BUT
CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE. SHOULD SEE RAIN TUE NIGHT AND WED...WITH
SHOWERY WEATHER AFTERWARDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...LOW STRATUS HAS RAPIDLY SPREAD UP THE OREGON COAST
OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUES TO PUSH UP THE WASHINGTON COAST. THERMAL
TROUGH NOW LIES FROM FAR NW WASHINGTON OVER THE WILLAPA HILLS THEN
OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THIS IS THE LINE MARKING THE SHIFT FROM
OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE WINDS.  THIS THERMAL WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
CASCADES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW ALL WINDS TO BECOMING
ONSHORE BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE NOT ALL THAT STRONG
OVER THE INTERIOR...WILL BE ENOUGH TO HOLD TODAYS HIGHTEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOW CLOUDS WILL NOT MOVE MUCH ALONG THE
COAST...KEEPING TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH MARINE LAYER
DEEPENING AND PUSHING MARINE CLOUDS INTO THE INTERIOR. MORNING LOW
CLOUDS ON MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP. BUT IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER
INLAND WITH HIGHS ONLY THE 70S. AT THE SAME TIME...A FRONTAL SYSTEM
ALONG 145W WILL BE APPROACHING THE PAC NW COAST. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL STRETCH APART WHILE APPROACHING THE
COAST...WITH THE BULK OF LEFTOVER ENERGY HEADED TOWARD BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THE FRONT MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH FOR SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN ALONG THE WASHINGTON AND N OREGON COAST.

WILL ALSO KEEP MINOR THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH CASCADES OF
OREGON FOR MONDAY. THIS DUE TO MOISTURE ROTATING UP OUT OF NEVADA
INTO SOUTHERN OREGON. SINCE SO CLOSE TO THE MOISTURE POOL...CAN NOT
RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...AND WILL BE A BIT
STRONGER. SO SEEMS TUESDAY WILL BE A REPEAT OF MONDAY...BUT THREAT OF
MOISTURE PUSHES FURTHER INLAND INTO THE COAST RANGES. HAVE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER...AND PUT THREAT OF OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES OVER INTERIOR
FOR TUE.     ROCKEY.

.LONG TERM...FIRST SIGNIFICANT FRONT OF THE FALL SEASON ARRIVES LATE
TUE NIGHT AND WED. VERY WELL COULD SEE AROUND 1 INCH OF RAIN IN THE
COAST RANGES...AND WIDESPREAD 0.33 TO 0.50 INCH ACROSS INLAND AREAS.
FRONT IS ARRIVING IN A SOUTH TO NORTH ORIENTATION. AS A RESULT...IT
WILL BE SLOWING ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO THE PAC NW. SO RAINFALL
HAS POTENTIAL TO BE A BIT HEAVIER OVER THE WEST SLOPES OF THE COAST
AND CASCADES RANGES. WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER FOR
WED. AFTER THAT FRONT CLEARS THE REGION WED EVENING... AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH SHOWERS AND COOL WEATHER. SUCH COOL DAMP
WEATHER WILL GO FAR IN QUIETING WILDFIRE ACTIVITY. ROCKEY.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST INLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MARINE STRATUS WILL THEN FILL THE VALLEY WITH LOW MVFR CIGS BY
MONDAY MORNING. AT THE COAST...IFR TO LIFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN FOG CONTINUE TODAY. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE TONIGHT TO 1000-1500 FT RANGE AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
THE REGION.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 09Z MON THEN
INCREASING CHANCES FOR LOW MVFR CIGS. LOW MVFR CIGS LIKELY BY 12Z
MON.
&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS
THE COASTAL TROUGH SPREAD INTO WASHINGTON. LOW MARINE STRATUS HAS
SPREAD INTO THE WATERS AS WELL.  WINDS WERE EARLIER THOUGHT TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR TODAY...BUT APPEARS IT
WILL MEET CRITERIA OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OUT TO ABOUT 30-40 NM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL EASE ACROSS ALL WATERS THIS EVENING. THE NEXT WEAKENING FRONT
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
ON TUE THROUGH THU AS A FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRES ROLLS UP TOWARD THE
B.C. COAST.

WESTERLY SWELL 6 FT STARTS OUT THE DAY THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDES OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THEN RISE ABOVE 10 FT WED BUT SHOULD NOT
EXCEED 15 FT. MODEL DIFFERENCES AFTER THU INCREASE UNCERTAINTY
AND CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. /MH
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60
NM.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 210933
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
231 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP THE COAST CLOUDY
AND COOL. FURTHER INLAND...NO CLOUDS BUT A BIT COOLER AS OCEAN AIR
SPILLS THROUGH THE COAST RANGES.  MILD DAYS FOR MON AND TUE...BUT
CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE. SHOULD SEE RAIN TUE NIGHT AND WED...WITH
SHOWERY WEATHER AFTERWARDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...LOW STRATUS HAS RAPIDLY SPREAD UP THE OREGON COAST
OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUES TO PUSH UP THE WASHINGTON COAST. THERMAL
TROUGH NOW LIES FROM FAR NW WASHINGTON OVER THE WILLAPA HILLS THEN
OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THIS IS THE LINE MARKING THE SHIFT FROM
OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE WINDS.  THIS THERMAL WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
CASCADES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW ALL WINDS TO BECOMING
ONSHORE BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE NOT ALL THAT STRONG
OVER THE INTERIOR...WILL BE ENOUGH TO HOLD TODAYS HIGHTEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOW CLOUDS WILL NOT MOVE MUCH ALONG THE
COAST...KEEPING TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH MARINE LAYER
DEEPENING AND PUSHING MARINE CLOUDS INTO THE INTERIOR. MORNING LOW
CLOUDS ON MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP. BUT IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER
INLAND WITH HIGHS ONLY THE 70S. AT THE SAME TIME...A FRONTAL SYSTEM
ALONG 145W WILL BE APPROACHING THE PAC NW COAST. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL STRETCH APART WHILE APPROACHING THE
COAST...WITH THE BULK OF LEFTOVER ENERGY HEADED TOWARD BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THE FRONT MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH FOR SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN ALONG THE WASHINGTON AND N OREGON COAST.

WILL ALSO KEEP MINOR THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH CASCADES OF
OREGON FOR MONDAY. THIS DUE TO MOISTURE ROTATING UP OUT OF NEVADA
INTO SOUTHERN OREGON. SINCE SO CLOSE TO THE MOISTURE POOL...CAN NOT
RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...AND WILL BE A BIT
STRONGER. SO SEEMS TUESDAY WILL BE A REPEAT OF MONDAY...BUT THREAT OF
MOISTURE PUSHES FURTHER INLAND INTO THE COAST RANGES. HAVE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER...AND PUT THREAT OF OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES OVER INTERIOR
FOR TUE.     ROCKEY.

.LONG TERM...FIRST SIGNIFICANT FRONT OF THE FALL SEASON ARRIVES LATE
TUE NIGHT AND WED. VERY WELL COULD SEE AROUND 1 INCH OF RAIN IN THE
COAST RANGES...AND WIDESPREAD 0.33 TO 0.50 INCH ACROSS INLAND AREAS.
FRONT IS ARRIVING IN A SOUTH TO NORTH ORIENTATION. AS A RESULT...IT
WILL BE SLOWING ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO THE PAC NW. SO RAINFALL
HAS POTENTIAL TO BE A BIT HEAVIER OVER THE WEST SLOPES OF THE COAST
AND CASCADES RANGES. WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER FOR
WED. AFTER THAT FRONT CLEARS THE REGION WED EVENING... AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH SHOWERS AND COOL WEATHER. SUCH COOL DAMP
WEATHER WILL GO FAR IN QUIETING WILDFIRE ACTIVITY. ROCKEY.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST INLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MARINE STRATUS WILL THEN FILL THE VALLEY WITH LOW MVFR CIGS BY
MONDAY MORNING. AT THE COAST...IFR TO LIFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN FOG CONTINUE TODAY. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE TONIGHT TO 1000-1500 FT RANGE AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
THE REGION.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 09Z MON THEN
INCREASING CHANCES FOR LOW MVFR CIGS. LOW MVFR CIGS LIKELY BY 12Z
MON.
&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS
THE COASTAL TROUGH SPREAD INTO WASHINGTON. LOW MARINE STRATUS HAS
SPREAD INTO THE WATERS AS WELL.  WINDS WERE EARLIER THOUGHT TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR TODAY...BUT APPEARS IT
WILL MEET CRITERIA OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OUT TO ABOUT 30-40 NM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL EASE ACROSS ALL WATERS THIS EVENING. THE NEXT WEAKENING FRONT
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
ON TUE THROUGH THU AS A FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRES ROLLS UP TOWARD THE
B.C. COAST.

WESTERLY SWELL 6 FT STARTS OUT THE DAY THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDES OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THEN RISE ABOVE 10 FT WED BUT SHOULD NOT
EXCEED 15 FT. MODEL DIFFERENCES AFTER THU INCREASE UNCERTAINTY
AND CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. /MH
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60
NM.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 210520
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1020 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will provide a generally clear...warm and
dry weekend for the Inland Northwest. The new work week will start
out with continued above normal temperatures...but a weak cold
front will bring a chance of showers starting Monday night. From
mid-week onward an approaching deep trough will increase the
probability of rain with cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday...High pressure amplifies over the area
with the ridge axis migrating east into Western Montana Sunday
which allows for a continued dry forecast with a warming trend. A
weak cold front rides up the west side of the ridge Monday into
Monday night which allows for cooler temperatures, an increase in
cloud cover, slight increase in wind, and minor pops for hit and
miss showers primarily near the East Slopes of the Northern
Cascades and the Northern Canadian Border. Forecast temperatures
given the ridge remain on the warm side of what would be
considered normal for this time of year. /Pelatti

Monday night through Saturday...The latest medium range models
are in good agreement in depicting the slow approach and eventual
arrival of a deep Pacific trough into the region through this
period. Thus there is high confidence of a general deterioration
from the dry and warm ridgy weather pattern of this weekend.
Uncertainty exists...and this uncertainty is
considerable...regarding just how quick and how stark this
deterioration into an autumnal showery or even downright wet and
cool period will evolve. The problem concerns not the approach of
the trough...but the exact placement and timing of the main trough
baroclinic region which will likely feature widespread showers
along a relatively narrow and slow moving band bisecting the
forecast area from south to north...or if the GFS pans out a
strong and wet deformation band on or about Friday.

Where better agreement exists...not surprisingly in the earlier
periods of Monday night through Tuesday...a weak outriding
disturbance will bring the potential for isolated to scattered
showers or even a thunderstorm or two on Monday night and Tuesday
morning and begin a slow cooling trend as the surface thermal axis
is shifted eastward into Montana. Tuesday looks like a cloudy but
essentially dry day except near the Cascades as a weak short wave
ridge in the wake of this outriding disturbance rebounds over the
forecast area.

Wednesday and beyond the GFS and ECMWF differ in timing and
eastward progression of a stronger moisture axis and enhancement
along the main trough baroclinic band. The Cascades and deep basin
will probably face the main impact from these showers while the
eastern half of the forecast area may remain dry through
Wednesday. the GFS model supports this prospect...while the ECMWF
model pushes the potential rain band eastward across the region
suggesting a very real threat of showers over the whole forecast
area on Wednesday.

The overall model agreement depicting a highly meridional trough
off the coast meteorologically supports the slower GFS
solution...so the forecast for the eastern basin and Idaho
Panhandle will remain essentially dry for Wednesday and feature
only a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday.

Friday and Saturday...On one or both of these days it is
increasingly probable that the trough will finally settle into the
forecast area with significantly increased chance of rain...cooler
temperatures and possibly breezy winds in a generally unsettled
fall pattern. The main uncertainty is whether this trough arrival
will feature scattered to widespread but still hit-and-miss
showers or at least some areas of more long-running stratiform
light rain. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure will promote dry and VFR conditions at
TAF sites, with light diurnal winds. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  87  56  84  58  83 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  52  86  52  84  55  82 /   0   0   0   0  20  10
Pullman        50  88  51  85  55  84 /   0   0   0   0  20  10
Lewiston       57  91  60  89  61  88 /   0   0   0   0  20  10
Colville       49  87  48  86  52  84 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Sandpoint      47  82  45  79  50  78 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Kellogg        52  84  53  81  55  80 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Moses Lake     54  90  55  89  56  87 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      61  90  63  87  61  85 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Omak           52  91  55  87  56  85 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 210520
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1020 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will provide a generally clear...warm and
dry weekend for the Inland Northwest. The new work week will start
out with continued above normal temperatures...but a weak cold
front will bring a chance of showers starting Monday night. From
mid-week onward an approaching deep trough will increase the
probability of rain with cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday...High pressure amplifies over the area
with the ridge axis migrating east into Western Montana Sunday
which allows for a continued dry forecast with a warming trend. A
weak cold front rides up the west side of the ridge Monday into
Monday night which allows for cooler temperatures, an increase in
cloud cover, slight increase in wind, and minor pops for hit and
miss showers primarily near the East Slopes of the Northern
Cascades and the Northern Canadian Border. Forecast temperatures
given the ridge remain on the warm side of what would be
considered normal for this time of year. /Pelatti

Monday night through Saturday...The latest medium range models
are in good agreement in depicting the slow approach and eventual
arrival of a deep Pacific trough into the region through this
period. Thus there is high confidence of a general deterioration
from the dry and warm ridgy weather pattern of this weekend.
Uncertainty exists...and this uncertainty is
considerable...regarding just how quick and how stark this
deterioration into an autumnal showery or even downright wet and
cool period will evolve. The problem concerns not the approach of
the trough...but the exact placement and timing of the main trough
baroclinic region which will likely feature widespread showers
along a relatively narrow and slow moving band bisecting the
forecast area from south to north...or if the GFS pans out a
strong and wet deformation band on or about Friday.

Where better agreement exists...not surprisingly in the earlier
periods of Monday night through Tuesday...a weak outriding
disturbance will bring the potential for isolated to scattered
showers or even a thunderstorm or two on Monday night and Tuesday
morning and begin a slow cooling trend as the surface thermal axis
is shifted eastward into Montana. Tuesday looks like a cloudy but
essentially dry day except near the Cascades as a weak short wave
ridge in the wake of this outriding disturbance rebounds over the
forecast area.

Wednesday and beyond the GFS and ECMWF differ in timing and
eastward progression of a stronger moisture axis and enhancement
along the main trough baroclinic band. The Cascades and deep basin
will probably face the main impact from these showers while the
eastern half of the forecast area may remain dry through
Wednesday. the GFS model supports this prospect...while the ECMWF
model pushes the potential rain band eastward across the region
suggesting a very real threat of showers over the whole forecast
area on Wednesday.

The overall model agreement depicting a highly meridional trough
off the coast meteorologically supports the slower GFS
solution...so the forecast for the eastern basin and Idaho
Panhandle will remain essentially dry for Wednesday and feature
only a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday.

Friday and Saturday...On one or both of these days it is
increasingly probable that the trough will finally settle into the
forecast area with significantly increased chance of rain...cooler
temperatures and possibly breezy winds in a generally unsettled
fall pattern. The main uncertainty is whether this trough arrival
will feature scattered to widespread but still hit-and-miss
showers or at least some areas of more long-running stratiform
light rain. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure will promote dry and VFR conditions at
TAF sites, with light diurnal winds. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  87  56  84  58  83 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  52  86  52  84  55  82 /   0   0   0   0  20  10
Pullman        50  88  51  85  55  84 /   0   0   0   0  20  10
Lewiston       57  91  60  89  61  88 /   0   0   0   0  20  10
Colville       49  87  48  86  52  84 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Sandpoint      47  82  45  79  50  78 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Kellogg        52  84  53  81  55  80 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Moses Lake     54  90  55  89  56  87 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      61  90  63  87  61  85 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Omak           52  91  55  87  56  85 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 210428
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
928 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST
WITH TIME...ALLOWING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...PROMISING WET AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST...
ALLOWING A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TO
APPROACH THE REGION. LOOK FOR THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW TO
BECOME ONSHORE BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW STRATUS TO SURGE
NORTH ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW AND THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF.

EXPECT A SHORT WAVE TROF TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MON. THE
ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES
ONSHORE. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE ON THE COAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

A STRONGER AND WETTER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
ON TUE FOR A BETTER THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS WELL
AS AN INCREASE IN WIND.

.LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE PERIOD OF TIME WHEN
WESTERN WA IS LIKELY TO HAVE PERIOD OF RAIN AS A STRONGER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION. THERE MIGHT BE TWO SURGES
OF FAIRLY STRONG SLY FLOW ALOFT...ONE TUESDAY EVENING...AND
ANOTHER LATER WED OR WED NIGHT AND TUE-THU DO NOT LOOK LIKE A GOOD
TIME TO BE CAMPING OR HIKING...ESPECIALLY IN THE OLYMPICS. THERE
WILL BE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED AROUND 140W TUESDAY. GFS
HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCH AND PETER
OUT IN THE GFS WHICH WAS NOT NEARLY AS WET AS THE ECMWF. BOTH
MODELS SHOWED THE HEAVIEST RAIN COAST AND OLYMPICS. AFTER A WET
PERIOD...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS LIKELY TO DROP SOUTH THU AND FRI
INTO CALIF/NV. THE GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS DIVERGED LATE IN THE
WEEK...THE EURO KEPT A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WHILE THE GFS WAS FASTER WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER RIDGE WITH A BETTER PROSPECT FOR DRY WEATHER BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. AT THE
SURFACE...A TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL SHIFT INLAND SUNDAY. AIR
MASS DRY AND STABLE.

STRATUS PUSHING NORTH UP THE WEST COAST SHOULD REACH THE WASHINGTON
COAST SUNDAY MORNING AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOP. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
SOME FOG SUNDAY MORNING IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.

KSEA...CLEAR SKIES. NORTHERLY WIND 4-8 KNOTS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
SUNDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL SWITCH TO ONSHORE SUNDAY AS A TROUGH
ALONG THE COAST MOVES INLAND. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS ON MONDAY. A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING GALE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE
COASTAL WATERS. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
     AND STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.


&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 210428
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
928 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST
WITH TIME...ALLOWING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...PROMISING WET AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST...
ALLOWING A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TO
APPROACH THE REGION. LOOK FOR THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW TO
BECOME ONSHORE BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW STRATUS TO SURGE
NORTH ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW AND THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF.

EXPECT A SHORT WAVE TROF TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MON. THE
ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES
ONSHORE. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE ON THE COAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

A STRONGER AND WETTER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
ON TUE FOR A BETTER THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS WELL
AS AN INCREASE IN WIND.

.LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE PERIOD OF TIME WHEN
WESTERN WA IS LIKELY TO HAVE PERIOD OF RAIN AS A STRONGER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION. THERE MIGHT BE TWO SURGES
OF FAIRLY STRONG SLY FLOW ALOFT...ONE TUESDAY EVENING...AND
ANOTHER LATER WED OR WED NIGHT AND TUE-THU DO NOT LOOK LIKE A GOOD
TIME TO BE CAMPING OR HIKING...ESPECIALLY IN THE OLYMPICS. THERE
WILL BE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED AROUND 140W TUESDAY. GFS
HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCH AND PETER
OUT IN THE GFS WHICH WAS NOT NEARLY AS WET AS THE ECMWF. BOTH
MODELS SHOWED THE HEAVIEST RAIN COAST AND OLYMPICS. AFTER A WET
PERIOD...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS LIKELY TO DROP SOUTH THU AND FRI
INTO CALIF/NV. THE GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS DIVERGED LATE IN THE
WEEK...THE EURO KEPT A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WHILE THE GFS WAS FASTER WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER RIDGE WITH A BETTER PROSPECT FOR DRY WEATHER BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. AT THE
SURFACE...A TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL SHIFT INLAND SUNDAY. AIR
MASS DRY AND STABLE.

STRATUS PUSHING NORTH UP THE WEST COAST SHOULD REACH THE WASHINGTON
COAST SUNDAY MORNING AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOP. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
SOME FOG SUNDAY MORNING IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.

KSEA...CLEAR SKIES. NORTHERLY WIND 4-8 KNOTS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
SUNDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL SWITCH TO ONSHORE SUNDAY AS A TROUGH
ALONG THE COAST MOVES INLAND. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS ON MONDAY. A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING GALE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE
COASTAL WATERS. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
     AND STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.


&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 210428
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
928 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST
WITH TIME...ALLOWING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...PROMISING WET AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST...
ALLOWING A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TO
APPROACH THE REGION. LOOK FOR THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW TO
BECOME ONSHORE BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW STRATUS TO SURGE
NORTH ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW AND THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF.

EXPECT A SHORT WAVE TROF TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MON. THE
ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES
ONSHORE. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE ON THE COAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

A STRONGER AND WETTER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
ON TUE FOR A BETTER THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS WELL
AS AN INCREASE IN WIND.

.LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE PERIOD OF TIME WHEN
WESTERN WA IS LIKELY TO HAVE PERIOD OF RAIN AS A STRONGER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION. THERE MIGHT BE TWO SURGES
OF FAIRLY STRONG SLY FLOW ALOFT...ONE TUESDAY EVENING...AND
ANOTHER LATER WED OR WED NIGHT AND TUE-THU DO NOT LOOK LIKE A GOOD
TIME TO BE CAMPING OR HIKING...ESPECIALLY IN THE OLYMPICS. THERE
WILL BE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED AROUND 140W TUESDAY. GFS
HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCH AND PETER
OUT IN THE GFS WHICH WAS NOT NEARLY AS WET AS THE ECMWF. BOTH
MODELS SHOWED THE HEAVIEST RAIN COAST AND OLYMPICS. AFTER A WET
PERIOD...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS LIKELY TO DROP SOUTH THU AND FRI
INTO CALIF/NV. THE GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS DIVERGED LATE IN THE
WEEK...THE EURO KEPT A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WHILE THE GFS WAS FASTER WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER RIDGE WITH A BETTER PROSPECT FOR DRY WEATHER BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. AT THE
SURFACE...A TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL SHIFT INLAND SUNDAY. AIR
MASS DRY AND STABLE.

STRATUS PUSHING NORTH UP THE WEST COAST SHOULD REACH THE WASHINGTON
COAST SUNDAY MORNING AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOP. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
SOME FOG SUNDAY MORNING IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.

KSEA...CLEAR SKIES. NORTHERLY WIND 4-8 KNOTS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
SUNDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL SWITCH TO ONSHORE SUNDAY AS A TROUGH
ALONG THE COAST MOVES INLAND. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS ON MONDAY. A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING GALE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE
COASTAL WATERS. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
     AND STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.


&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 210428
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
928 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST
WITH TIME...ALLOWING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...PROMISING WET AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST...
ALLOWING A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TO
APPROACH THE REGION. LOOK FOR THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW TO
BECOME ONSHORE BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW STRATUS TO SURGE
NORTH ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW AND THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF.

EXPECT A SHORT WAVE TROF TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MON. THE
ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES
ONSHORE. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE ON THE COAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

A STRONGER AND WETTER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
ON TUE FOR A BETTER THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS WELL
AS AN INCREASE IN WIND.

.LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE PERIOD OF TIME WHEN
WESTERN WA IS LIKELY TO HAVE PERIOD OF RAIN AS A STRONGER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION. THERE MIGHT BE TWO SURGES
OF FAIRLY STRONG SLY FLOW ALOFT...ONE TUESDAY EVENING...AND
ANOTHER LATER WED OR WED NIGHT AND TUE-THU DO NOT LOOK LIKE A GOOD
TIME TO BE CAMPING OR HIKING...ESPECIALLY IN THE OLYMPICS. THERE
WILL BE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED AROUND 140W TUESDAY. GFS
HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCH AND PETER
OUT IN THE GFS WHICH WAS NOT NEARLY AS WET AS THE ECMWF. BOTH
MODELS SHOWED THE HEAVIEST RAIN COAST AND OLYMPICS. AFTER A WET
PERIOD...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS LIKELY TO DROP SOUTH THU AND FRI
INTO CALIF/NV. THE GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS DIVERGED LATE IN THE
WEEK...THE EURO KEPT A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WHILE THE GFS WAS FASTER WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER RIDGE WITH A BETTER PROSPECT FOR DRY WEATHER BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. AT THE
SURFACE...A TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL SHIFT INLAND SUNDAY. AIR
MASS DRY AND STABLE.

STRATUS PUSHING NORTH UP THE WEST COAST SHOULD REACH THE WASHINGTON
COAST SUNDAY MORNING AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOP. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
SOME FOG SUNDAY MORNING IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.

KSEA...CLEAR SKIES. NORTHERLY WIND 4-8 KNOTS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
SUNDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL SWITCH TO ONSHORE SUNDAY AS A TROUGH
ALONG THE COAST MOVES INLAND. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS ON MONDAY. A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING GALE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE
COASTAL WATERS. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
     AND STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.


&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KPQR 210328
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
830 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG THE OREGON COAST WILL SHIFT
NORTHWARD AND OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...CAUSING MARINE AIR TO SURGE N UP
THE COAST AND ULTIMATELY RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPS SPREADING IN SUN
AND MON. A WEAK FRONT WILL ALSO BRUSH BY MONDAY...POTENTIALLY
BRINGING A COUPLE SHOWERS TO THE COAST AND CASCADES. A STRONGER
FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DISTRICT
LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COOL SHOWERY PATTERN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...CLOUDS SEEN IN SATELLITE PICTURE RACING N UP THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST THIS EVENING. WITH THE SURFACE LOW ALREADY
APPROACHING KAST LATE THIS EVENING...EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO
SPREAD N UP THE OREGON COAST OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUN THE INLAND PUSH ON THE CLOUDS WILL BE WEAK...
BUT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FORMING ALONG THE COAST LATE SUN WILL
INITIATE A STRONGER PUSH OF MARINE AIR INLAND SUN NIGHT.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...THE REAL COOLING
OCCURS INLAND ON MONDAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH PRESENTLY LINGERING
WEST OF THE CASCADES SHIFTS OVER TO THE EAST SIDE. THIS WILL ALLOW
MORE PROLIFIC ONSHORE FLOW... PERHAPS EVEN SOME LOW CLOUDS INTO THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY MON MORNING.

AT THE SAME TIME...A FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG 145W WILL BE APPROACHING
THE PAC NW COAST. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
STRETCH APART WHILE APPROACHING THE COAST...WITH THE BULK OF LEFTOVER
ENERGY HEADED TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE FRONT MAY HOLD TOGETHER
LONG ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH COAST OR IN THE
CASCADES MONDAY...BUT THAT IS ABOUT ALL. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
FALLING 500 MB HEIGHTS/850 MB TEMPS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS MON AFTERNOON.

THE MONDAY SYSTEM LIKELY LEAVES A DISORGANIZED BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED
ACROSS WESTERN WA/OR MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE. THIS COULD PROVIDE A
CONDUIT FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM TO PUSH ONSHORE LATE TUE/WED. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF SEEM TO SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL AT LEAST
BE A PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGHOUT OUR DISTRICT SOMEWHERE AROUND MIDWEEK
AS THIS OCCURS. RIGHT NOW LATE TUE/WED APPEARS TO BE MOST LIKELY.
DEPENDING ON HOW THIS SYSTEM SETS UP...IT COULD ALSO BE OUR FIRST
BREEZY SOUTH WIND EVENT OF THE SEASON ALONG THE COAST.WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC OCEAN ON TUESDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE WE COULD SEE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CONTINUING TO APPROACH 1.5 INCHES. WITH DECENT UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...PROVIDED BY A STRONG JET STEAK...SOME AREAS MY
RECEIVE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MEAN LONGWAVE FLOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO THE REGION...AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY. DECREASED POPS AND SKY COVER
SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO SLIGHT DIFFERENCES AND A DOWNWARD TREND
SHOWN BY THE VARIOUS MODELS. TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. TJ/64

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST INLAND THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER
OFFSHORE FLOW. HOWEVER OFFSHORE FLOW QUICKLY EASES TONIGHT AND
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY MARINE SURGE IS
CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY NORTH ALONG THE OREGON COAST WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MARINE STRATUS AS FAR NORTH AS ABOUT NEWPORT
AS OF 03Z. EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL TAKE LONGER TO SPREAD
INLAND TO AST THAN TO THE ADJACENT COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS WITH OCCASIONAL
CEILING 5000-6000 FT DUE TO SMOKE. BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
EXPANDS OVER THE WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREADS ACROSS THE
WATERS BY MORNING...CURRENTLY AS FAR NORTH AS ABOUT BUOY
50...ACCOMPANIED BY SHALLOW LOW STRATUS AND FOG. AS DEVELOPING
WEAK LOW PRES CENTER MOVES UP OFFSHORE...GUSTS WILL LIKELY REACH
15 TO 20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

WESTERLY SWELL 6 TO 7 FT WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...THEN SEAS SLOWLY
SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL ARRIVE
MID WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT OR HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO
OVER 10 FT BY WEDNESDAY. BOWEN/27

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 210328
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
830 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG THE OREGON COAST WILL SHIFT
NORTHWARD AND OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...CAUSING MARINE AIR TO SURGE N UP
THE COAST AND ULTIMATELY RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPS SPREADING IN SUN
AND MON. A WEAK FRONT WILL ALSO BRUSH BY MONDAY...POTENTIALLY
BRINGING A COUPLE SHOWERS TO THE COAST AND CASCADES. A STRONGER
FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DISTRICT
LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COOL SHOWERY PATTERN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...CLOUDS SEEN IN SATELLITE PICTURE RACING N UP THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST THIS EVENING. WITH THE SURFACE LOW ALREADY
APPROACHING KAST LATE THIS EVENING...EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO
SPREAD N UP THE OREGON COAST OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUN THE INLAND PUSH ON THE CLOUDS WILL BE WEAK...
BUT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FORMING ALONG THE COAST LATE SUN WILL
INITIATE A STRONGER PUSH OF MARINE AIR INLAND SUN NIGHT.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...THE REAL COOLING
OCCURS INLAND ON MONDAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH PRESENTLY LINGERING
WEST OF THE CASCADES SHIFTS OVER TO THE EAST SIDE. THIS WILL ALLOW
MORE PROLIFIC ONSHORE FLOW... PERHAPS EVEN SOME LOW CLOUDS INTO THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY MON MORNING.

AT THE SAME TIME...A FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG 145W WILL BE APPROACHING
THE PAC NW COAST. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
STRETCH APART WHILE APPROACHING THE COAST...WITH THE BULK OF LEFTOVER
ENERGY HEADED TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE FRONT MAY HOLD TOGETHER
LONG ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH COAST OR IN THE
CASCADES MONDAY...BUT THAT IS ABOUT ALL. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
FALLING 500 MB HEIGHTS/850 MB TEMPS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS MON AFTERNOON.

THE MONDAY SYSTEM LIKELY LEAVES A DISORGANIZED BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED
ACROSS WESTERN WA/OR MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE. THIS COULD PROVIDE A
CONDUIT FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM TO PUSH ONSHORE LATE TUE/WED. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF SEEM TO SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL AT LEAST
BE A PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGHOUT OUR DISTRICT SOMEWHERE AROUND MIDWEEK
AS THIS OCCURS. RIGHT NOW LATE TUE/WED APPEARS TO BE MOST LIKELY.
DEPENDING ON HOW THIS SYSTEM SETS UP...IT COULD ALSO BE OUR FIRST
BREEZY SOUTH WIND EVENT OF THE SEASON ALONG THE COAST.WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC OCEAN ON TUESDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE WE COULD SEE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CONTINUING TO APPROACH 1.5 INCHES. WITH DECENT UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...PROVIDED BY A STRONG JET STEAK...SOME AREAS MY
RECEIVE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MEAN LONGWAVE FLOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO THE REGION...AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY. DECREASED POPS AND SKY COVER
SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO SLIGHT DIFFERENCES AND A DOWNWARD TREND
SHOWN BY THE VARIOUS MODELS. TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. TJ/64

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST INLAND THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER
OFFSHORE FLOW. HOWEVER OFFSHORE FLOW QUICKLY EASES TONIGHT AND
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY MARINE SURGE IS
CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY NORTH ALONG THE OREGON COAST WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MARINE STRATUS AS FAR NORTH AS ABOUT NEWPORT
AS OF 03Z. EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL TAKE LONGER TO SPREAD
INLAND TO AST THAN TO THE ADJACENT COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS WITH OCCASIONAL
CEILING 5000-6000 FT DUE TO SMOKE. BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
EXPANDS OVER THE WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREADS ACROSS THE
WATERS BY MORNING...CURRENTLY AS FAR NORTH AS ABOUT BUOY
50...ACCOMPANIED BY SHALLOW LOW STRATUS AND FOG. AS DEVELOPING
WEAK LOW PRES CENTER MOVES UP OFFSHORE...GUSTS WILL LIKELY REACH
15 TO 20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

WESTERLY SWELL 6 TO 7 FT WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...THEN SEAS SLOWLY
SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL ARRIVE
MID WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT OR HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO
OVER 10 FT BY WEDNESDAY. BOWEN/27

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 210328
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
830 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG THE OREGON COAST WILL SHIFT
NORTHWARD AND OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...CAUSING MARINE AIR TO SURGE N UP
THE COAST AND ULTIMATELY RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPS SPREADING IN SUN
AND MON. A WEAK FRONT WILL ALSO BRUSH BY MONDAY...POTENTIALLY
BRINGING A COUPLE SHOWERS TO THE COAST AND CASCADES. A STRONGER
FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DISTRICT
LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COOL SHOWERY PATTERN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...CLOUDS SEEN IN SATELLITE PICTURE RACING N UP THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST THIS EVENING. WITH THE SURFACE LOW ALREADY
APPROACHING KAST LATE THIS EVENING...EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO
SPREAD N UP THE OREGON COAST OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUN THE INLAND PUSH ON THE CLOUDS WILL BE WEAK...
BUT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FORMING ALONG THE COAST LATE SUN WILL
INITIATE A STRONGER PUSH OF MARINE AIR INLAND SUN NIGHT.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...THE REAL COOLING
OCCURS INLAND ON MONDAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH PRESENTLY LINGERING
WEST OF THE CASCADES SHIFTS OVER TO THE EAST SIDE. THIS WILL ALLOW
MORE PROLIFIC ONSHORE FLOW... PERHAPS EVEN SOME LOW CLOUDS INTO THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY MON MORNING.

AT THE SAME TIME...A FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG 145W WILL BE APPROACHING
THE PAC NW COAST. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
STRETCH APART WHILE APPROACHING THE COAST...WITH THE BULK OF LEFTOVER
ENERGY HEADED TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE FRONT MAY HOLD TOGETHER
LONG ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH COAST OR IN THE
CASCADES MONDAY...BUT THAT IS ABOUT ALL. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
FALLING 500 MB HEIGHTS/850 MB TEMPS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS MON AFTERNOON.

THE MONDAY SYSTEM LIKELY LEAVES A DISORGANIZED BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED
ACROSS WESTERN WA/OR MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE. THIS COULD PROVIDE A
CONDUIT FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM TO PUSH ONSHORE LATE TUE/WED. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF SEEM TO SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL AT LEAST
BE A PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGHOUT OUR DISTRICT SOMEWHERE AROUND MIDWEEK
AS THIS OCCURS. RIGHT NOW LATE TUE/WED APPEARS TO BE MOST LIKELY.
DEPENDING ON HOW THIS SYSTEM SETS UP...IT COULD ALSO BE OUR FIRST
BREEZY SOUTH WIND EVENT OF THE SEASON ALONG THE COAST.WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC OCEAN ON TUESDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE WE COULD SEE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CONTINUING TO APPROACH 1.5 INCHES. WITH DECENT UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...PROVIDED BY A STRONG JET STEAK...SOME AREAS MY
RECEIVE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MEAN LONGWAVE FLOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO THE REGION...AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY. DECREASED POPS AND SKY COVER
SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO SLIGHT DIFFERENCES AND A DOWNWARD TREND
SHOWN BY THE VARIOUS MODELS. TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. TJ/64

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST INLAND THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER
OFFSHORE FLOW. HOWEVER OFFSHORE FLOW QUICKLY EASES TONIGHT AND
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY MARINE SURGE IS
CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY NORTH ALONG THE OREGON COAST WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MARINE STRATUS AS FAR NORTH AS ABOUT NEWPORT
AS OF 03Z. EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL TAKE LONGER TO SPREAD
INLAND TO AST THAN TO THE ADJACENT COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS WITH OCCASIONAL
CEILING 5000-6000 FT DUE TO SMOKE. BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
EXPANDS OVER THE WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREADS ACROSS THE
WATERS BY MORNING...CURRENTLY AS FAR NORTH AS ABOUT BUOY
50...ACCOMPANIED BY SHALLOW LOW STRATUS AND FOG. AS DEVELOPING
WEAK LOW PRES CENTER MOVES UP OFFSHORE...GUSTS WILL LIKELY REACH
15 TO 20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

WESTERLY SWELL 6 TO 7 FT WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...THEN SEAS SLOWLY
SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL ARRIVE
MID WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT OR HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO
OVER 10 FT BY WEDNESDAY. BOWEN/27

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 202322
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
422 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will provide a generally clear...warm and
dry weekend for the Inland Northwest. The new work week will start
out with continued above normal temperatures...but a weak cold
front will bring a chance of showers starting Monday night. From
mid-week onward an approaching deep trough will increase the
probability of rain with cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday...High pressure amplifies over the area
with the ridge axis migrating east into Western Montana Sunday
which allows for a continued dry forecast with a warming trend. A
weak cold front rides up the west side of the ridge Monday into
Monday night which allows for cooler temperatures, an increase in
cloud cover, slight increase in wind, and minor pops for hit and
miss showers primarily near the East Slopes of the Northern
Cascades and the Northern Canadian Border. Forecast temperatures
given the ridge remain on the warm side of what would be
considered normal for this time of year. /Pelatti

Monday night through Saturday...The latest medium range models
are in good agreement in depicting the slow approach and eventual
arrival of a deep Pacific trough into the region through this
period. Thus there is high confidence of a general deterioration
from the dry and warm ridgy weather pattern of this weekend.
Uncertainty exists...and this uncertainty is
considerable...regarding just how quick and how stark this
deterioration into an autumnal showery or even downright wet and
cool period will evolve. The problem concerns not the approach of
the trough...but the exact placement and timing of the main trough
baroclinic region which will likely feature widespread showers
along a relatively narrow and slow moving band bisecting the
forecast area from south to north...or if the GFS pans out a
strong and wet deformation band on or about Friday.

Where better agreement exists...not surprisingly in the earlier
periods of Monday night through Tuesday...a weak outriding
disturbance will bring the potential for isolated to scattered
showers or even a thunderstorm or two on Monday night and Tuesday
morning and begin a slow cooling trend as the surface thermal axis
is shifted eastward into Montana. Tuesday looks like a cloudy but
essentially dry day except near the Cascades as a weak short wave
ridge in the wake of this outriding disturbance rebounds over the
forecast area.

Wednesday and beyond the GFS and ECMWF differ in timing and
eastward progression of a stronger moisture axis and enhancement
along the main trough baroclinic band. The Cascades and deep basin
will probably face the main impact from these showers while the
eastern half of the forecast area may remain dry through
Wednesday. the GFS model supports this prospect...while the ECMWF
model pushes the potential rain band eastward across the region
suggesting a very real threat of showers over the whole forecast
area on Wednesday.

The overall model agreement depicting a highly meridional trough
off the coast meteorologically supports the slower GFS
solution...so the forecast for the eastern basin and Idaho
Panhandle will remain essentially dry for Wednesday and feature
only a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday.

Friday and Saturday...On one or both of these days it is
increasingly probable that the trough will finally settle into the
forecast area with significantly increased chance of rain...cooler
temperatures and possibly breezy winds in a generally unsettled
fall pattern. The main uncertainty is whether this trough arrival
will feature scattered to widespread but still hit-and-miss
showers or at least some areas of more long-running stratiform
light rain. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: High pressure will promote dry and VFR conditions at
TAF sites, with light diurnal winds. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  87  56  84  58  83 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  52  86  52  84  55  82 /   0   0   0   0  20  10
Pullman        50  88  51  85  55  84 /   0   0   0   0  20  10
Lewiston       57  91  60  89  61  88 /   0   0   0   0  20  10
Colville       49  87  48  86  52  84 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Sandpoint      47  82  45  79  50  78 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Kellogg        52  84  53  81  55  80 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Moses Lake     54  90  55  89  56  87 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      61  90  63  87  61  85 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Omak           52  91  55  87  56  85 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 202322
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
422 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will provide a generally clear...warm and
dry weekend for the Inland Northwest. The new work week will start
out with continued above normal temperatures...but a weak cold
front will bring a chance of showers starting Monday night. From
mid-week onward an approaching deep trough will increase the
probability of rain with cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday...High pressure amplifies over the area
with the ridge axis migrating east into Western Montana Sunday
which allows for a continued dry forecast with a warming trend. A
weak cold front rides up the west side of the ridge Monday into
Monday night which allows for cooler temperatures, an increase in
cloud cover, slight increase in wind, and minor pops for hit and
miss showers primarily near the East Slopes of the Northern
Cascades and the Northern Canadian Border. Forecast temperatures
given the ridge remain on the warm side of what would be
considered normal for this time of year. /Pelatti

Monday night through Saturday...The latest medium range models
are in good agreement in depicting the slow approach and eventual
arrival of a deep Pacific trough into the region through this
period. Thus there is high confidence of a general deterioration
from the dry and warm ridgy weather pattern of this weekend.
Uncertainty exists...and this uncertainty is
considerable...regarding just how quick and how stark this
deterioration into an autumnal showery or even downright wet and
cool period will evolve. The problem concerns not the approach of
the trough...but the exact placement and timing of the main trough
baroclinic region which will likely feature widespread showers
along a relatively narrow and slow moving band bisecting the
forecast area from south to north...or if the GFS pans out a
strong and wet deformation band on or about Friday.

Where better agreement exists...not surprisingly in the earlier
periods of Monday night through Tuesday...a weak outriding
disturbance will bring the potential for isolated to scattered
showers or even a thunderstorm or two on Monday night and Tuesday
morning and begin a slow cooling trend as the surface thermal axis
is shifted eastward into Montana. Tuesday looks like a cloudy but
essentially dry day except near the Cascades as a weak short wave
ridge in the wake of this outriding disturbance rebounds over the
forecast area.

Wednesday and beyond the GFS and ECMWF differ in timing and
eastward progression of a stronger moisture axis and enhancement
along the main trough baroclinic band. The Cascades and deep basin
will probably face the main impact from these showers while the
eastern half of the forecast area may remain dry through
Wednesday. the GFS model supports this prospect...while the ECMWF
model pushes the potential rain band eastward across the region
suggesting a very real threat of showers over the whole forecast
area on Wednesday.

The overall model agreement depicting a highly meridional trough
off the coast meteorologically supports the slower GFS
solution...so the forecast for the eastern basin and Idaho
Panhandle will remain essentially dry for Wednesday and feature
only a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday.

Friday and Saturday...On one or both of these days it is
increasingly probable that the trough will finally settle into the
forecast area with significantly increased chance of rain...cooler
temperatures and possibly breezy winds in a generally unsettled
fall pattern. The main uncertainty is whether this trough arrival
will feature scattered to widespread but still hit-and-miss
showers or at least some areas of more long-running stratiform
light rain. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: High pressure will promote dry and VFR conditions at
TAF sites, with light diurnal winds. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  87  56  84  58  83 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  52  86  52  84  55  82 /   0   0   0   0  20  10
Pullman        50  88  51  85  55  84 /   0   0   0   0  20  10
Lewiston       57  91  60  89  61  88 /   0   0   0   0  20  10
Colville       49  87  48  86  52  84 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Sandpoint      47  82  45  79  50  78 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Kellogg        52  84  53  81  55  80 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Moses Lake     54  90  55  89  56  87 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      61  90  63  87  61  85 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Omak           52  91  55  87  56  85 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 202140
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
240 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SHIFT
EAST TO MONTANA THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL SWITCH
TO ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND A STRONGER FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT MAY GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM SW OREGON
TO THE NORTHERN OREGON COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE REGION. TONIGHT WILL BE A MILD CLEAR NIGHT. A SURGE
OF LOW MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST LATER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS TURN ONSHORE AND
THE THERMAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND. THE COAST SHOULD SEE A RAPID
INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE INTERIOR
SHOULD REMAIN WARM AND SUNNY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK
SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF A LITTLE RAIN OR
SHOWERS...MAINLY COAST AND MOUNTAINS...AS THE WEAK FRONT BREAKS UP
OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IS THE PERIOD OF TIME WHEN
WESTERN WA IS LIKELY TO HAVE PERIOD OF RAIN AS A STRONGER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION. THERE MIGHT BE TWO SURGES OF
FAIRLY STRONG SLY FLOW ALOFT...ONE TUESDAY EVENING...AND ANOTHER
LATER WED OR WED NIGHT AND TUE-THU DO NOT LOOK LIKE A GOOD TIME TO
BE CAMPING OR HIKING...ESPECIALLY IN THE OLYMPICS. THERE WILL BE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED AROUND 140W TUESDAY. GFS HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCH AND PETER OUT IN THE GFS
WHICH IS NOT NEARLY AS WET AS THE ECMWF. BOTH MODELS SHOW THE
HEAVIEST RAIN COAST AND OLYMPICS. AFTER A WET PERIOD...THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH IS LIKELY TO DROP SOUTH THU AND FRI INTO CALIF/NV. THE
GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS DIVERGE LATE IN THE WEEK...THE EURO KEEPS A
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WHILE
THE GFS IS FASTER WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE WITH A BETTER
PROSPECT FOR DRY WEATHER BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT INLAND TONIGHT
GIVING INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COMBINED WITH A
THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WILL GIVE NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW TONIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NE
OF THE AREA AND THE THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD EARLY SUNDAY AND MARINE AIR ALONG THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST
WILL SURGE NORTHWARD TO THE WASHINGTON COASTAL ZONES DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE AND DRY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL ZONES AFTER
12Z. THE INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SHALLOW
FOG EARLY SUNDAY CONFINED TO THE MOST FOG PRONE RIVER VALLEYS
12Z-16Z. ALBRECHT

KSEA...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GOOD VISIBILITY.
EXPECT NORTH WIND 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME NE 6-8 KT THIS
EVENING AND EASTERLY AFTER 09Z. WIND WILL SHIFT TO SW 4-6 KT ABOUT
15Z SUN. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER SOUTHEASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COMBINED WITH
A THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH OF LOW PRES ALONG THE COAST WILL GIVE
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. CHANNELED NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL WATERS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THERE UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.

EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AT THE WEST
ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND THE ADJACENT NEARSHORE
COASTAL ZONE FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE ZONES STARTING AT 11 PM THIS
EVENING.

THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND SUNDAY MORNING AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. THIS WILL INDUCE A MARINE PUSH THAT WILL RAPIDLY SURGE
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS AROUND 5 AM SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS STARTING AT THE
INITIATION OF THE SURGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY AREAS OF FOG AND VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 STATUTE
MILE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY. A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.
GALE OR NEAR GALE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AHEAD OF THIS SECOND STRONGER FRONT AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE INLAND WATERS.
ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL THROUGH 8 PM
      PDT THIS EVENING.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
      FUCA AND COASTAL WATERS CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM
      STARTING AT 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL COASTAL ZONES STARTING 5 AM PDT
      SUNDAY.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML







000
FXUS66 KPQR 202129
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
228 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERMAL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT ACROSS WESTERN
OREGON WITH HIGHER PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES. THIS IS CAUSING
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WHICH IS RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON. A SURGE OF MARINE AIR IS RAPIDLY PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE
OREGON COAST...AND SHOULD APPROACH ASTORIA BY SUN MORNING. THE
TENDENCY WILL BE FOR THIS TO BRING ONSHORE FLOW BACK FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL ALSO BRUSH BY
MONDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A COUPLE SHOWERS TO THE COAST AND
CASCADES. A STRONGER FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE DISTRICT LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
COOL SHOWERY PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP
QUICKLY TODAY...WITH NOT A CLOUD IN THE SKY ACCORDING TO VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONE OBSCURATION WHICH IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY VISIBLE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES IS SMOKE
FROM THE 36 PIT FIRE...WHICH IS A BIT MORE ACTIVE THAN IT HAS BEEN
DURING OUR RELATIVELY COOL DAMP WEATHER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SMOKE PRODUCTION TO SETTLE DOWN INTO THE LOWER
CLACKAMAS AND WILLAMETTE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

MEANWHILE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE SWITCHED FROM DECIDEDLY NORTHERLY
TO SOMEWHAT SOUTHERLY ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OREGON COAST.
THE KACV-KOTH GRADIENT WAS -4.5 MB YESTERDAY EVENING...INDICATING A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. THIS HAS SINCE SWITCHED TO +1.3 MB
AND APPEARS TO BE INCREASING FAIRLY RAPIDLY...A DECENT SIGN THAT A
SOUTHERLY SURGE OF MARINE AIR IS POISED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
OREGON COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENHANCE ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE COAST
AND COASTAL VALLEYS SUNDAY...AND SHOULD EVEN CAUSE A BIT OF COOLING
INLAND AS WELL. THE REAL COOLING OCCURS INLAND ON MONDAY AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH PRESENTLY LINGERING WEST OF THE CASCADES SHIFTS OVER
TO THE EAST SIDE. THIS WILL ALLOW MORE PROLIFIC ONSHORE FLOW...
PERHAPS EVEN SOME LOW CLOUDS INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY MON MORNING.

AT THE SAME TIME...A FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG 145W WILL BE APPROACHING
THE PAC NW COAST. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
STRETCH APART WHILE APPROACHING THE COAST...WITH THE BULK OF LEFTOVER
ENERGY HEADED TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE FRONT MAY HOLD TOGETHER
LONG ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH COAST OR IN THE
CASCADES MONDAY...BUT THAT IS ABOUT ALL. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
FALLING 500 MB HEIGHTS/850 MB TEMPS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS MON AFTERNOON.

THE MONDAY SYSTEM LIKELY LEAVES A DISORGANIZED BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED
ACROSS WESTERN WA/OR MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE. THIS COULD PROVIDE A
CONDUIT FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM TO PUSH ONSHORE LATE TUE/WED. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF SEEM TO SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL AT LEAST
BE A PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGHOUT OUR DISTRICT SOMEWHERE AROUND MIDWEEK
AS THIS OCCURS. RIGHT NOW LATE TUE/WED APPEARS TO BE MOST LIKELY.
DEPENDING ON HOW THIS SYSTEM SETS UP...IT COULD ALSO BE OUR FIRST
BREEZY SOUTH WIND EVENT OF THE SEASON ALONG THE COAST.WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN ON TUESDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE WE COULD SEE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUING TO APPROACH 1.5 INCHES. WITH
DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...PROVIDED BY A STRONG JET STEAK...SOME
AREAS MY RECEIVE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MEAN LONGWAVE FLOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION...AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY. DECREASED
POPS AND SKY COVER SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
AND A DOWNWARD TREND SHOWN BY THE VARIOUS MODELS. TEMPERATURES IN
THE EXTENDED WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. TJ/64

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER OFFSHORE
FLOW. THIS IS SHORT LIVED AS OFFSHORE FLOW QUICKLY EASES TONIGHT
THEN EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
MARINE SURGE IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY NORTH ALONG THE OREGON
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE
COAST AFTER 04Z SUNDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS. EAST WINDS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 02-04Z SUNDAY...BEFORE
EASING. /27

&&

.MARINE...NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH EXPANDS OVER THE WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
SPREADS ACROSS THE WATERS BY THIS EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT
TONIGHT. AS THE WEAK LOW PRES CENTER MOVES UP OFFSHORE...GUSTS
WILL LIKELY REACH 20 KT MIDDAY SUNDAY. SHALLOW STRATUS AND FOG
WILL COME WITH THE WIND REVERSAL.

WESTERLY SWELL 8 TO 9 FT WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...SEAS THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL ARRIVE
MID WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT OR HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO
OVER 10 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
     PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 202129
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
228 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERMAL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT ACROSS WESTERN
OREGON WITH HIGHER PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES. THIS IS CAUSING
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WHICH IS RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON. A SURGE OF MARINE AIR IS RAPIDLY PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE
OREGON COAST...AND SHOULD APPROACH ASTORIA BY SUN MORNING. THE
TENDENCY WILL BE FOR THIS TO BRING ONSHORE FLOW BACK FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL ALSO BRUSH BY
MONDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A COUPLE SHOWERS TO THE COAST AND
CASCADES. A STRONGER FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE DISTRICT LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
COOL SHOWERY PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP
QUICKLY TODAY...WITH NOT A CLOUD IN THE SKY ACCORDING TO VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONE OBSCURATION WHICH IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY VISIBLE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES IS SMOKE
FROM THE 36 PIT FIRE...WHICH IS A BIT MORE ACTIVE THAN IT HAS BEEN
DURING OUR RELATIVELY COOL DAMP WEATHER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SMOKE PRODUCTION TO SETTLE DOWN INTO THE LOWER
CLACKAMAS AND WILLAMETTE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

MEANWHILE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE SWITCHED FROM DECIDEDLY NORTHERLY
TO SOMEWHAT SOUTHERLY ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OREGON COAST.
THE KACV-KOTH GRADIENT WAS -4.5 MB YESTERDAY EVENING...INDICATING A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. THIS HAS SINCE SWITCHED TO +1.3 MB
AND APPEARS TO BE INCREASING FAIRLY RAPIDLY...A DECENT SIGN THAT A
SOUTHERLY SURGE OF MARINE AIR IS POISED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
OREGON COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENHANCE ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE COAST
AND COASTAL VALLEYS SUNDAY...AND SHOULD EVEN CAUSE A BIT OF COOLING
INLAND AS WELL. THE REAL COOLING OCCURS INLAND ON MONDAY AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH PRESENTLY LINGERING WEST OF THE CASCADES SHIFTS OVER
TO THE EAST SIDE. THIS WILL ALLOW MORE PROLIFIC ONSHORE FLOW...
PERHAPS EVEN SOME LOW CLOUDS INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY MON MORNING.

AT THE SAME TIME...A FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG 145W WILL BE APPROACHING
THE PAC NW COAST. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
STRETCH APART WHILE APPROACHING THE COAST...WITH THE BULK OF LEFTOVER
ENERGY HEADED TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE FRONT MAY HOLD TOGETHER
LONG ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH COAST OR IN THE
CASCADES MONDAY...BUT THAT IS ABOUT ALL. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
FALLING 500 MB HEIGHTS/850 MB TEMPS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS MON AFTERNOON.

THE MONDAY SYSTEM LIKELY LEAVES A DISORGANIZED BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED
ACROSS WESTERN WA/OR MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE. THIS COULD PROVIDE A
CONDUIT FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM TO PUSH ONSHORE LATE TUE/WED. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF SEEM TO SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL AT LEAST
BE A PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGHOUT OUR DISTRICT SOMEWHERE AROUND MIDWEEK
AS THIS OCCURS. RIGHT NOW LATE TUE/WED APPEARS TO BE MOST LIKELY.
DEPENDING ON HOW THIS SYSTEM SETS UP...IT COULD ALSO BE OUR FIRST
BREEZY SOUTH WIND EVENT OF THE SEASON ALONG THE COAST.WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN ON TUESDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE WE COULD SEE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUING TO APPROACH 1.5 INCHES. WITH
DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...PROVIDED BY A STRONG JET STEAK...SOME
AREAS MY RECEIVE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MEAN LONGWAVE FLOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION...AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY. DECREASED
POPS AND SKY COVER SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
AND A DOWNWARD TREND SHOWN BY THE VARIOUS MODELS. TEMPERATURES IN
THE EXTENDED WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. TJ/64

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER OFFSHORE
FLOW. THIS IS SHORT LIVED AS OFFSHORE FLOW QUICKLY EASES TONIGHT
THEN EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
MARINE SURGE IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY NORTH ALONG THE OREGON
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE
COAST AFTER 04Z SUNDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS. EAST WINDS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 02-04Z SUNDAY...BEFORE
EASING. /27

&&

.MARINE...NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH EXPANDS OVER THE WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
SPREADS ACROSS THE WATERS BY THIS EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT
TONIGHT. AS THE WEAK LOW PRES CENTER MOVES UP OFFSHORE...GUSTS
WILL LIKELY REACH 20 KT MIDDAY SUNDAY. SHALLOW STRATUS AND FOG
WILL COME WITH THE WIND REVERSAL.

WESTERLY SWELL 8 TO 9 FT WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...SEAS THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL ARRIVE
MID WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT OR HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO
OVER 10 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
     PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 202129
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
228 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERMAL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT ACROSS WESTERN
OREGON WITH HIGHER PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES. THIS IS CAUSING
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WHICH IS RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON. A SURGE OF MARINE AIR IS RAPIDLY PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE
OREGON COAST...AND SHOULD APPROACH ASTORIA BY SUN MORNING. THE
TENDENCY WILL BE FOR THIS TO BRING ONSHORE FLOW BACK FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL ALSO BRUSH BY
MONDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A COUPLE SHOWERS TO THE COAST AND
CASCADES. A STRONGER FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE DISTRICT LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
COOL SHOWERY PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP
QUICKLY TODAY...WITH NOT A CLOUD IN THE SKY ACCORDING TO VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONE OBSCURATION WHICH IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY VISIBLE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES IS SMOKE
FROM THE 36 PIT FIRE...WHICH IS A BIT MORE ACTIVE THAN IT HAS BEEN
DURING OUR RELATIVELY COOL DAMP WEATHER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SMOKE PRODUCTION TO SETTLE DOWN INTO THE LOWER
CLACKAMAS AND WILLAMETTE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

MEANWHILE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE SWITCHED FROM DECIDEDLY NORTHERLY
TO SOMEWHAT SOUTHERLY ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OREGON COAST.
THE KACV-KOTH GRADIENT WAS -4.5 MB YESTERDAY EVENING...INDICATING A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. THIS HAS SINCE SWITCHED TO +1.3 MB
AND APPEARS TO BE INCREASING FAIRLY RAPIDLY...A DECENT SIGN THAT A
SOUTHERLY SURGE OF MARINE AIR IS POISED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
OREGON COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENHANCE ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE COAST
AND COASTAL VALLEYS SUNDAY...AND SHOULD EVEN CAUSE A BIT OF COOLING
INLAND AS WELL. THE REAL COOLING OCCURS INLAND ON MONDAY AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH PRESENTLY LINGERING WEST OF THE CASCADES SHIFTS OVER
TO THE EAST SIDE. THIS WILL ALLOW MORE PROLIFIC ONSHORE FLOW...
PERHAPS EVEN SOME LOW CLOUDS INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY MON MORNING.

AT THE SAME TIME...A FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG 145W WILL BE APPROACHING
THE PAC NW COAST. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
STRETCH APART WHILE APPROACHING THE COAST...WITH THE BULK OF LEFTOVER
ENERGY HEADED TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE FRONT MAY HOLD TOGETHER
LONG ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH COAST OR IN THE
CASCADES MONDAY...BUT THAT IS ABOUT ALL. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
FALLING 500 MB HEIGHTS/850 MB TEMPS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS MON AFTERNOON.

THE MONDAY SYSTEM LIKELY LEAVES A DISORGANIZED BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED
ACROSS WESTERN WA/OR MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE. THIS COULD PROVIDE A
CONDUIT FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM TO PUSH ONSHORE LATE TUE/WED. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF SEEM TO SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL AT LEAST
BE A PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGHOUT OUR DISTRICT SOMEWHERE AROUND MIDWEEK
AS THIS OCCURS. RIGHT NOW LATE TUE/WED APPEARS TO BE MOST LIKELY.
DEPENDING ON HOW THIS SYSTEM SETS UP...IT COULD ALSO BE OUR FIRST
BREEZY SOUTH WIND EVENT OF THE SEASON ALONG THE COAST.WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN ON TUESDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE WE COULD SEE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUING TO APPROACH 1.5 INCHES. WITH
DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...PROVIDED BY A STRONG JET STEAK...SOME
AREAS MY RECEIVE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MEAN LONGWAVE FLOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION...AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY. DECREASED
POPS AND SKY COVER SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
AND A DOWNWARD TREND SHOWN BY THE VARIOUS MODELS. TEMPERATURES IN
THE EXTENDED WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. TJ/64

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER OFFSHORE
FLOW. THIS IS SHORT LIVED AS OFFSHORE FLOW QUICKLY EASES TONIGHT
THEN EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
MARINE SURGE IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY NORTH ALONG THE OREGON
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE
COAST AFTER 04Z SUNDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS. EAST WINDS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 02-04Z SUNDAY...BEFORE
EASING. /27

&&

.MARINE...NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH EXPANDS OVER THE WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
SPREADS ACROSS THE WATERS BY THIS EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT
TONIGHT. AS THE WEAK LOW PRES CENTER MOVES UP OFFSHORE...GUSTS
WILL LIKELY REACH 20 KT MIDDAY SUNDAY. SHALLOW STRATUS AND FOG
WILL COME WITH THE WIND REVERSAL.

WESTERLY SWELL 8 TO 9 FT WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...SEAS THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL ARRIVE
MID WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT OR HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO
OVER 10 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
     PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 202129
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
228 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERMAL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT ACROSS WESTERN
OREGON WITH HIGHER PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES. THIS IS CAUSING
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WHICH IS RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON. A SURGE OF MARINE AIR IS RAPIDLY PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE
OREGON COAST...AND SHOULD APPROACH ASTORIA BY SUN MORNING. THE
TENDENCY WILL BE FOR THIS TO BRING ONSHORE FLOW BACK FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL ALSO BRUSH BY
MONDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A COUPLE SHOWERS TO THE COAST AND
CASCADES. A STRONGER FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE DISTRICT LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
COOL SHOWERY PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP
QUICKLY TODAY...WITH NOT A CLOUD IN THE SKY ACCORDING TO VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONE OBSCURATION WHICH IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY VISIBLE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES IS SMOKE
FROM THE 36 PIT FIRE...WHICH IS A BIT MORE ACTIVE THAN IT HAS BEEN
DURING OUR RELATIVELY COOL DAMP WEATHER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SMOKE PRODUCTION TO SETTLE DOWN INTO THE LOWER
CLACKAMAS AND WILLAMETTE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

MEANWHILE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE SWITCHED FROM DECIDEDLY NORTHERLY
TO SOMEWHAT SOUTHERLY ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OREGON COAST.
THE KACV-KOTH GRADIENT WAS -4.5 MB YESTERDAY EVENING...INDICATING A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. THIS HAS SINCE SWITCHED TO +1.3 MB
AND APPEARS TO BE INCREASING FAIRLY RAPIDLY...A DECENT SIGN THAT A
SOUTHERLY SURGE OF MARINE AIR IS POISED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
OREGON COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENHANCE ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE COAST
AND COASTAL VALLEYS SUNDAY...AND SHOULD EVEN CAUSE A BIT OF COOLING
INLAND AS WELL. THE REAL COOLING OCCURS INLAND ON MONDAY AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH PRESENTLY LINGERING WEST OF THE CASCADES SHIFTS OVER
TO THE EAST SIDE. THIS WILL ALLOW MORE PROLIFIC ONSHORE FLOW...
PERHAPS EVEN SOME LOW CLOUDS INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY MON MORNING.

AT THE SAME TIME...A FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG 145W WILL BE APPROACHING
THE PAC NW COAST. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
STRETCH APART WHILE APPROACHING THE COAST...WITH THE BULK OF LEFTOVER
ENERGY HEADED TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE FRONT MAY HOLD TOGETHER
LONG ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH COAST OR IN THE
CASCADES MONDAY...BUT THAT IS ABOUT ALL. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
FALLING 500 MB HEIGHTS/850 MB TEMPS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS MON AFTERNOON.

THE MONDAY SYSTEM LIKELY LEAVES A DISORGANIZED BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED
ACROSS WESTERN WA/OR MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE. THIS COULD PROVIDE A
CONDUIT FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM TO PUSH ONSHORE LATE TUE/WED. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF SEEM TO SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL AT LEAST
BE A PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGHOUT OUR DISTRICT SOMEWHERE AROUND MIDWEEK
AS THIS OCCURS. RIGHT NOW LATE TUE/WED APPEARS TO BE MOST LIKELY.
DEPENDING ON HOW THIS SYSTEM SETS UP...IT COULD ALSO BE OUR FIRST
BREEZY SOUTH WIND EVENT OF THE SEASON ALONG THE COAST.WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN ON TUESDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE WE COULD SEE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUING TO APPROACH 1.5 INCHES. WITH
DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...PROVIDED BY A STRONG JET STEAK...SOME
AREAS MY RECEIVE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MEAN LONGWAVE FLOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION...AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY. DECREASED
POPS AND SKY COVER SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
AND A DOWNWARD TREND SHOWN BY THE VARIOUS MODELS. TEMPERATURES IN
THE EXTENDED WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. TJ/64

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER OFFSHORE
FLOW. THIS IS SHORT LIVED AS OFFSHORE FLOW QUICKLY EASES TONIGHT
THEN EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
MARINE SURGE IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY NORTH ALONG THE OREGON
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE
COAST AFTER 04Z SUNDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS. EAST WINDS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 02-04Z SUNDAY...BEFORE
EASING. /27

&&

.MARINE...NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH EXPANDS OVER THE WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
SPREADS ACROSS THE WATERS BY THIS EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT
TONIGHT. AS THE WEAK LOW PRES CENTER MOVES UP OFFSHORE...GUSTS
WILL LIKELY REACH 20 KT MIDDAY SUNDAY. SHALLOW STRATUS AND FOG
WILL COME WITH THE WIND REVERSAL.

WESTERLY SWELL 8 TO 9 FT WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...SEAS THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL ARRIVE
MID WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT OR HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO
OVER 10 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
     PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 202129
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
228 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERMAL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT ACROSS WESTERN
OREGON WITH HIGHER PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES. THIS IS CAUSING
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WHICH IS RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON. A SURGE OF MARINE AIR IS RAPIDLY PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE
OREGON COAST...AND SHOULD APPROACH ASTORIA BY SUN MORNING. THE
TENDENCY WILL BE FOR THIS TO BRING ONSHORE FLOW BACK FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL ALSO BRUSH BY
MONDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A COUPLE SHOWERS TO THE COAST AND
CASCADES. A STRONGER FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE DISTRICT LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
COOL SHOWERY PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP
QUICKLY TODAY...WITH NOT A CLOUD IN THE SKY ACCORDING TO VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONE OBSCURATION WHICH IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY VISIBLE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES IS SMOKE
FROM THE 36 PIT FIRE...WHICH IS A BIT MORE ACTIVE THAN IT HAS BEEN
DURING OUR RELATIVELY COOL DAMP WEATHER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SMOKE PRODUCTION TO SETTLE DOWN INTO THE LOWER
CLACKAMAS AND WILLAMETTE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

MEANWHILE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE SWITCHED FROM DECIDEDLY NORTHERLY
TO SOMEWHAT SOUTHERLY ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OREGON COAST.
THE KACV-KOTH GRADIENT WAS -4.5 MB YESTERDAY EVENING...INDICATING A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. THIS HAS SINCE SWITCHED TO +1.3 MB
AND APPEARS TO BE INCREASING FAIRLY RAPIDLY...A DECENT SIGN THAT A
SOUTHERLY SURGE OF MARINE AIR IS POISED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
OREGON COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENHANCE ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE COAST
AND COASTAL VALLEYS SUNDAY...AND SHOULD EVEN CAUSE A BIT OF COOLING
INLAND AS WELL. THE REAL COOLING OCCURS INLAND ON MONDAY AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH PRESENTLY LINGERING WEST OF THE CASCADES SHIFTS OVER
TO THE EAST SIDE. THIS WILL ALLOW MORE PROLIFIC ONSHORE FLOW...
PERHAPS EVEN SOME LOW CLOUDS INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY MON MORNING.

AT THE SAME TIME...A FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG 145W WILL BE APPROACHING
THE PAC NW COAST. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
STRETCH APART WHILE APPROACHING THE COAST...WITH THE BULK OF LEFTOVER
ENERGY HEADED TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE FRONT MAY HOLD TOGETHER
LONG ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH COAST OR IN THE
CASCADES MONDAY...BUT THAT IS ABOUT ALL. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
FALLING 500 MB HEIGHTS/850 MB TEMPS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS MON AFTERNOON.

THE MONDAY SYSTEM LIKELY LEAVES A DISORGANIZED BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED
ACROSS WESTERN WA/OR MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE. THIS COULD PROVIDE A
CONDUIT FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM TO PUSH ONSHORE LATE TUE/WED. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF SEEM TO SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL AT LEAST
BE A PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGHOUT OUR DISTRICT SOMEWHERE AROUND MIDWEEK
AS THIS OCCURS. RIGHT NOW LATE TUE/WED APPEARS TO BE MOST LIKELY.
DEPENDING ON HOW THIS SYSTEM SETS UP...IT COULD ALSO BE OUR FIRST
BREEZY SOUTH WIND EVENT OF THE SEASON ALONG THE COAST.WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN ON TUESDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE WE COULD SEE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUING TO APPROACH 1.5 INCHES. WITH
DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...PROVIDED BY A STRONG JET STEAK...SOME
AREAS MY RECEIVE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MEAN LONGWAVE FLOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION...AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY. DECREASED
POPS AND SKY COVER SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
AND A DOWNWARD TREND SHOWN BY THE VARIOUS MODELS. TEMPERATURES IN
THE EXTENDED WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. TJ/64

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER OFFSHORE
FLOW. THIS IS SHORT LIVED AS OFFSHORE FLOW QUICKLY EASES TONIGHT
THEN EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
MARINE SURGE IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY NORTH ALONG THE OREGON
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE
COAST AFTER 04Z SUNDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS. EAST WINDS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 02-04Z SUNDAY...BEFORE
EASING. /27

&&

.MARINE...NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH EXPANDS OVER THE WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
SPREADS ACROSS THE WATERS BY THIS EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT
TONIGHT. AS THE WEAK LOW PRES CENTER MOVES UP OFFSHORE...GUSTS
WILL LIKELY REACH 20 KT MIDDAY SUNDAY. SHALLOW STRATUS AND FOG
WILL COME WITH THE WIND REVERSAL.

WESTERLY SWELL 8 TO 9 FT WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...SEAS THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL ARRIVE
MID WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT OR HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO
OVER 10 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
     PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 202105
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
205 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will provide a generally clear...warm and
dry weekend for the Inland Northwest. The new work week will start
out with continued above normal temperatures...but a weak cold
front will bring a chance of showers starting Monday night. From
mid-week onward an approaching deep trough will increase the
probability of rain with cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday...High pressure amplifies over the area
with the ridge axis migrating east into Western Montana Sunday
which allows for a continued dry forecast with a warming trend. A
weak cold front rides up the west side of the ridge Monday into
Monday night which allows for cooler temperatures, an increase in
cloud cover, slight increase in wind, and minor pops for hit and
miss showers primarily near the East Slopes of the Northern
Cascades and the Northern Canadian Border. Forecast temperatures
given the ridge remain on the warm side of what would be
considered normal for this time of year. /Pelatti

Monday night through Saturday...The latest medium range models
are in good agreement in depicting the slow approach and eventual
arrival of a deep Pacific trough into the region through this
period. Thus there is high confidence of a general deterioration
from the dry and warm ridgy weather pattern of this weekend.
Uncertainty exists...and this uncertainty is
considerable...regarding just how quick and how stark this
deterioration into an autumnal showery or even downright wet and
cool period will evolve. The problem concerns not the approach of
the trough...but the exact placement and timing of the main trough
baroclinic region which will likely feature widespread showers
along a relatively narrow and slow moving band bisecting the
forecast area from south to north...or if the GFS pans out a
strong and wet deformation band on or about Friday.

Where better agreement exists...not surprisingly in the earlier
periods of Monday night through Tuesday...a weak outriding
disturbance will bring the potential for isolated to scattered
showers or even a thunderstorm or two on Monday night and Tuesday
morning and begin a slow cooling trend as the surface thermal axis
is shifted eastward into Montana. Tuesday looks like a cloudy but
essentially dry day except near the Cascades as a weak short wave
ridge in the wake of this outriding disturbance rebounds over the
forecast area.

Wednesday and beyond the GFS and ECMWF differ in timing and
eastward progression of a stronger moisture axis and enhancement
along the main trough baroclinic band. The Cascades and deep basin
will probably face the main impact from these showers while the
eastern half of the forecast area may remain dry through
Wednesday. the GFS model supports this prospect...while the ECMWF
model pushes the potential rain band eastward across the region
suggesting a very real threat of showers over the whole forecast
area on Wednesday.

The overall model agreement depicting a highly meridional trough
off the coast meteorologically supports the slower GFS
solution...so the forecast for the eastern basin and Idaho
Panhandle will remain essentially dry for Wednesday and feature
only a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday.

Friday and Saturday...On one or both of these days it is
increasingly probable that the trough will finally settle into the
forecast area with significantly increased chance of rain...cooler
temperatures and possibly breezy winds in a generally unsettled
fall pattern. The main uncertainty is whether this trough arrival
will feature scattered to widespread but still hit-and-miss
showers or at least some areas of more long-running stratiform
light rain. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High pressure will promote dry and VFR conditions at
TAF sites, with light diurnal winds for the next 24 hours. /MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  87  56  84  58  83 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  52  86  52  84  55  82 /   0   0   0   0  20  10
Pullman        50  88  51  85  55  84 /   0   0   0   0  20  10
Lewiston       57  91  60  89  61  88 /   0   0   0   0  20  10
Colville       49  87  48  86  52  84 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Sandpoint      47  82  45  79  50  78 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Kellogg        52  84  53  81  55  80 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Moses Lake     54  90  55  89  56  87 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      61  90  63  87  61  85 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Omak           52  91  55  87  56  85 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 202105
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
205 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will provide a generally clear...warm and
dry weekend for the Inland Northwest. The new work week will start
out with continued above normal temperatures...but a weak cold
front will bring a chance of showers starting Monday night. From
mid-week onward an approaching deep trough will increase the
probability of rain with cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday...High pressure amplifies over the area
with the ridge axis migrating east into Western Montana Sunday
which allows for a continued dry forecast with a warming trend. A
weak cold front rides up the west side of the ridge Monday into
Monday night which allows for cooler temperatures, an increase in
cloud cover, slight increase in wind, and minor pops for hit and
miss showers primarily near the East Slopes of the Northern
Cascades and the Northern Canadian Border. Forecast temperatures
given the ridge remain on the warm side of what would be
considered normal for this time of year. /Pelatti

Monday night through Saturday...The latest medium range models
are in good agreement in depicting the slow approach and eventual
arrival of a deep Pacific trough into the region through this
period. Thus there is high confidence of a general deterioration
from the dry and warm ridgy weather pattern of this weekend.
Uncertainty exists...and this uncertainty is
considerable...regarding just how quick and how stark this
deterioration into an autumnal showery or even downright wet and
cool period will evolve. The problem concerns not the approach of
the trough...but the exact placement and timing of the main trough
baroclinic region which will likely feature widespread showers
along a relatively narrow and slow moving band bisecting the
forecast area from south to north...or if the GFS pans out a
strong and wet deformation band on or about Friday.

Where better agreement exists...not surprisingly in the earlier
periods of Monday night through Tuesday...a weak outriding
disturbance will bring the potential for isolated to scattered
showers or even a thunderstorm or two on Monday night and Tuesday
morning and begin a slow cooling trend as the surface thermal axis
is shifted eastward into Montana. Tuesday looks like a cloudy but
essentially dry day except near the Cascades as a weak short wave
ridge in the wake of this outriding disturbance rebounds over the
forecast area.

Wednesday and beyond the GFS and ECMWF differ in timing and
eastward progression of a stronger moisture axis and enhancement
along the main trough baroclinic band. The Cascades and deep basin
will probably face the main impact from these showers while the
eastern half of the forecast area may remain dry through
Wednesday. the GFS model supports this prospect...while the ECMWF
model pushes the potential rain band eastward across the region
suggesting a very real threat of showers over the whole forecast
area on Wednesday.

The overall model agreement depicting a highly meridional trough
off the coast meteorologically supports the slower GFS
solution...so the forecast for the eastern basin and Idaho
Panhandle will remain essentially dry for Wednesday and feature
only a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday.

Friday and Saturday...On one or both of these days it is
increasingly probable that the trough will finally settle into the
forecast area with significantly increased chance of rain...cooler
temperatures and possibly breezy winds in a generally unsettled
fall pattern. The main uncertainty is whether this trough arrival
will feature scattered to widespread but still hit-and-miss
showers or at least some areas of more long-running stratiform
light rain. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High pressure will promote dry and VFR conditions at
TAF sites, with light diurnal winds for the next 24 hours. /MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  87  56  84  58  83 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  52  86  52  84  55  82 /   0   0   0   0  20  10
Pullman        50  88  51  85  55  84 /   0   0   0   0  20  10
Lewiston       57  91  60  89  61  88 /   0   0   0   0  20  10
Colville       49  87  48  86  52  84 /   0   0   0  10  20  10
Sandpoint      47  82  45  79  50  78 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Kellogg        52  84  53  81  55  80 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Moses Lake     54  90  55  89  56  87 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      61  90  63  87  61  85 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Omak           52  91  55  87  56  85 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 201714
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1014 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will provide a generally clear...warm and
dry weekend for the Inland Northwest. The new work week will start
out with continued above normal temperatures...but a weak cold
front will bring a chance of showers starting Tuesday. From mid-
week onward an approaching deep trough will increase the
probability of rain with cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday night...A ridge of high pressure will build
over the region, keeping dry conditions and warming temperatures
over the Inland Northwest. Surface high pressure will shift to the
east side of the continental divide, promoting northeast flow.
This will bring dry continental air into the region that will
downslope into the Columbia Basin, drying it further. Mostly clear
skies will promote daytime temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees
above seasonal normals for the weekend. By Sunday night some
monsoonal moisture may infiltrate the southeast zones but chances
are it will bring only mid level clouds but no precipitation.
/Kelch

Mon through Wed Night...With the breakdown of the upper ridge,
we`ll see a very weak wave move NE across the region Mon and Mon
Nt. Given the lack of deep instability over a dry sub- cloud
layer, it is not expected to produce much more than some clouds
for Mon Nt. Confidence is not high that this short-wave will be
dry though, mainly because model guidance shows a decent signal
for the possibility of high- based convective pcpn Mon into Tues
morning first in the Cascades, then spreading NE. The ECMWF was by
far the wettest with this feature compared to previous Nam and Gfs
runs. The latter models have trended slightly wetter, so this will
need to be watched. A slow- moving cold front is expected to make
landfall Tues Nt and Wed morning along the Pacific Nw coast. We`ve
been favoring a slower trend of this front as far as its Ewd
progression based on model trends and pattern recognition applied
to the north-south shearing offshore trough. The downstream
effects of this shearing will be a more meridional steering flow
over Ern Wa and N Idaho, leading to a more persistent thermal
ridge and warm, dry wx likely extending into Wed for most towns.
Confidence is increasing that this stalled front will not make
much eastward progress... likely not reaching the Idaho Panhandle.
For now, we limited the bulk of the rain through Wed Nt to the
Cascades. We warmed temperatures for far Ern Wa and the Idaho
Panhandle especially for Wed, with temps still around ten degrees
above normal. bz

Thursday through Saturday: A low off the coast of Washington and
a strong trough along the West Coast will push southern moisture
into the region. The models are having issues with the timing of
the this system as they have continued to push this pattern
further back from previous runs. Once the front pushes through the
region, rain showers will impact most of the region and
temperatures will return to season normals of around 70. An
occasional thunderstorm is possible along the Panhandle of Idaho
as the front pushes through the region on Friday. Temperatures
will increase around 10 degrees on Saturday from the highs on
Friday. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High pressure will promote dry and VFR conditions at
TAF sites, with light diurnal winds for the next 24 hours. /MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  54  87  56  84  57 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  81  52  86  52  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Pullman        85  50  88  51  85  54 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Lewiston       89  57  91  60  89  59 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Colville       84  49  87  48  86  50 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      77  47  82  45  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Kellogg        79  52  84  53  81  53 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Moses Lake     87  54  90  55  89  55 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      85  61  90  63  87  59 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           86  52  90  55  87  56 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 201714
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1014 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will provide a generally clear...warm and
dry weekend for the Inland Northwest. The new work week will start
out with continued above normal temperatures...but a weak cold
front will bring a chance of showers starting Tuesday. From mid-
week onward an approaching deep trough will increase the
probability of rain with cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday night...A ridge of high pressure will build
over the region, keeping dry conditions and warming temperatures
over the Inland Northwest. Surface high pressure will shift to the
east side of the continental divide, promoting northeast flow.
This will bring dry continental air into the region that will
downslope into the Columbia Basin, drying it further. Mostly clear
skies will promote daytime temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees
above seasonal normals for the weekend. By Sunday night some
monsoonal moisture may infiltrate the southeast zones but chances
are it will bring only mid level clouds but no precipitation.
/Kelch

Mon through Wed Night...With the breakdown of the upper ridge,
we`ll see a very weak wave move NE across the region Mon and Mon
Nt. Given the lack of deep instability over a dry sub- cloud
layer, it is not expected to produce much more than some clouds
for Mon Nt. Confidence is not high that this short-wave will be
dry though, mainly because model guidance shows a decent signal
for the possibility of high- based convective pcpn Mon into Tues
morning first in the Cascades, then spreading NE. The ECMWF was by
far the wettest with this feature compared to previous Nam and Gfs
runs. The latter models have trended slightly wetter, so this will
need to be watched. A slow- moving cold front is expected to make
landfall Tues Nt and Wed morning along the Pacific Nw coast. We`ve
been favoring a slower trend of this front as far as its Ewd
progression based on model trends and pattern recognition applied
to the north-south shearing offshore trough. The downstream
effects of this shearing will be a more meridional steering flow
over Ern Wa and N Idaho, leading to a more persistent thermal
ridge and warm, dry wx likely extending into Wed for most towns.
Confidence is increasing that this stalled front will not make
much eastward progress... likely not reaching the Idaho Panhandle.
For now, we limited the bulk of the rain through Wed Nt to the
Cascades. We warmed temperatures for far Ern Wa and the Idaho
Panhandle especially for Wed, with temps still around ten degrees
above normal. bz

Thursday through Saturday: A low off the coast of Washington and
a strong trough along the West Coast will push southern moisture
into the region. The models are having issues with the timing of
the this system as they have continued to push this pattern
further back from previous runs. Once the front pushes through the
region, rain showers will impact most of the region and
temperatures will return to season normals of around 70. An
occasional thunderstorm is possible along the Panhandle of Idaho
as the front pushes through the region on Friday. Temperatures
will increase around 10 degrees on Saturday from the highs on
Friday. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High pressure will promote dry and VFR conditions at
TAF sites, with light diurnal winds for the next 24 hours. /MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  54  87  56  84  57 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  81  52  86  52  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Pullman        85  50  88  51  85  54 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Lewiston       89  57  91  60  89  59 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Colville       84  49  87  48  86  50 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      77  47  82  45  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Kellogg        79  52  84  53  81  53 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Moses Lake     87  54  90  55  89  55 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      85  61  90  63  87  59 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           86  52  90  55  87  56 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 201640
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
939 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER SW OREGON COAST WILL BUILD
NORTH ALONG THE PAC NW COAST TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS INLAND.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP SKIES SUNNY AND SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S FOR THE COAST AND POSSIBLY LOW 90S FOR INLAND AREAS TODAY. COOLER
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS A
WEAK FRONT BRUSHES BY. A STRONGER FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...AS THE
OVERALL MESSAGE APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. A NARROW RIBBON OF LOW CLOUDS
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM AURORA TO ABOUT EUGENE...ALONG WITH SOME AREAS
OF SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT FIRE...SCOGGINS CREEK FIRE...AND DECEPTION
COMPLEX. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT BY MIDDAY... YIELDING A MOSTLY
SUNNY AND WARM DAY DESPITE SOME SMOKE IN THE AIR. WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +17 DEG C...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90
INLAND. COASTAL AREAS ARE NOT SEEING QUITE THE OFFSHORE PUSH
ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...BUT COULD STILL BE ENOUGH FOR
SOME COAST OR COASTAL VALLEY SITES LIKE ASTORIA/TILLAMOOK TO REACH
80 BEFORE A SEABREEZE FORCES ITS WAY IN.

A MORE ORGANIZED SOUTHERLY SURGE IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...BRINGING MORE PROLIFIC COOLING TO THE OREGON COAST. THIS IS
DISCUSSED WELL BELOW...AND FEW CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND TONIGHT.
WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 315 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
SLIVER OF LOW MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SKIES ARE OTHERWISE CLEAR...EXCEPT MARINE STRATUS IS
STARTING TO PUSH UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BE REPLACED BY EASTERLY WINDS LATE THIS MORNING AS
A THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST. THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND CASCADE GAPS...AND WILL
SUPPORT A SUNNY AND WARM DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE
LOW 90S FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEY AND MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE COAST.

EAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR WILDFIRE GROWTH...AND SMOKE FROM THE 36-PIT AND
DECEPTION FIRES SHOULD SPREAD BACK INTO THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY TODAY.

THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. LOW MARINE CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AND REACH NEWPORT TONIGHT. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AND REACH
ASTORIA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRASTIC COOLING FOR THE OREGON COAST. ONSHORE WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BRING THE COOLER MARINE AIR INLAND AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK
IN THE MID 80S FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND THE 60S FOR THE COAST

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE MARINE
STRATUS WILL PUSH FURTHER INLAND MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES...AT LEAST TO NORTHERN AREAS...THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY RAIN FROM THIS
FRONT...JUST A FEW SPRINKLES HERE AND THERE MONDAY NIGHT. TJ

.LONG TERM...A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUESDAY AND BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES WITH THIS FRONT...AND A 120KT 500MB JET
TO PROVIDE LIFT. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME AREAS MEASURING AN INCH OR
MORE OF RAIN. A COUPLE OF WET DISTURBANCES WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN
UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND SHOWERY
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TJ

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY MORNING CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ALONG THE
COAST AND ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS BY 16Z THIS MORNING. OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES
TODAY...ALLOWING GUSTY EAST WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE. THIS IS SHORT LIVED AS OFFSHORE FLOW QUICKLY EASES
TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z
SUN. EAST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT INCREASE IN THE AREA LATER
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN EASE TONIGHT. EAST WIND
PROBABLY SURFACING AT KPDX AROUND 18Z AND PEAKING 21Z SAT THRU 00Z
SUN. /27

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL COAST THIS MORNING WITH A LESSER CHANCE TO SEE SMALL CRAFT
WINDS FURTHER N. WINDS SHOULD EASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH EXPANDS OVER THE WATERS...EASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS.
TONIGHT A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WILL MOVE UP OFFSHORE...TURNING
WINDS TO THE S. GUSTS LIKELY TO APPROACH 20 KT SUN. SHALLOW
STRATUS AND FOG USUALLY COME WITH THE WIND REVERSAL.

SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 9 TO 12 FT THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY CHOPPY ESPECIALLY WITH ANY ADDITIONAL WIND
GUSTS...SO HAVE ISSUED A SHORT DURATION SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR
THIS MORNING. WESTERLY SWELL 8 TO 9 FT WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...SEAS
THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL ARRIVE MID WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT OR
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO OVER 10 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO
     FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 4 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 201640
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
939 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER SW OREGON COAST WILL BUILD
NORTH ALONG THE PAC NW COAST TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS INLAND.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP SKIES SUNNY AND SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S FOR THE COAST AND POSSIBLY LOW 90S FOR INLAND AREAS TODAY. COOLER
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS A
WEAK FRONT BRUSHES BY. A STRONGER FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...AS THE
OVERALL MESSAGE APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. A NARROW RIBBON OF LOW CLOUDS
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM AURORA TO ABOUT EUGENE...ALONG WITH SOME AREAS
OF SMOKE FROM THE 36 PIT FIRE...SCOGGINS CREEK FIRE...AND DECEPTION
COMPLEX. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT BY MIDDAY... YIELDING A MOSTLY
SUNNY AND WARM DAY DESPITE SOME SMOKE IN THE AIR. WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +17 DEG C...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90
INLAND. COASTAL AREAS ARE NOT SEEING QUITE THE OFFSHORE PUSH
ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...BUT COULD STILL BE ENOUGH FOR
SOME COAST OR COASTAL VALLEY SITES LIKE ASTORIA/TILLAMOOK TO REACH
80 BEFORE A SEABREEZE FORCES ITS WAY IN.

A MORE ORGANIZED SOUTHERLY SURGE IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...BRINGING MORE PROLIFIC COOLING TO THE OREGON COAST. THIS IS
DISCUSSED WELL BELOW...AND FEW CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND TONIGHT.
WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 315 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
SLIVER OF LOW MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SKIES ARE OTHERWISE CLEAR...EXCEPT MARINE STRATUS IS
STARTING TO PUSH UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BE REPLACED BY EASTERLY WINDS LATE THIS MORNING AS
A THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST. THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND CASCADE GAPS...AND WILL
SUPPORT A SUNNY AND WARM DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE
LOW 90S FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEY AND MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE COAST.

EAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR WILDFIRE GROWTH...AND SMOKE FROM THE 36-PIT AND
DECEPTION FIRES SHOULD SPREAD BACK INTO THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY TODAY.

THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. LOW MARINE CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AND REACH NEWPORT TONIGHT. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AND REACH
ASTORIA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRASTIC COOLING FOR THE OREGON COAST. ONSHORE WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BRING THE COOLER MARINE AIR INLAND AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK
IN THE MID 80S FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND THE 60S FOR THE COAST

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE MARINE
STRATUS WILL PUSH FURTHER INLAND MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES...AT LEAST TO NORTHERN AREAS...THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY RAIN FROM THIS
FRONT...JUST A FEW SPRINKLES HERE AND THERE MONDAY NIGHT. TJ

.LONG TERM...A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUESDAY AND BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES WITH THIS FRONT...AND A 120KT 500MB JET
TO PROVIDE LIFT. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME AREAS MEASURING AN INCH OR
MORE OF RAIN. A COUPLE OF WET DISTURBANCES WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN
UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND SHOWERY
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TJ

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY MORNING CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ALONG THE
COAST AND ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS BY 16Z THIS MORNING. OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES
TODAY...ALLOWING GUSTY EAST WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE. THIS IS SHORT LIVED AS OFFSHORE FLOW QUICKLY EASES
TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z
SUN. EAST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT INCREASE IN THE AREA LATER
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN EASE TONIGHT. EAST WIND
PROBABLY SURFACING AT KPDX AROUND 18Z AND PEAKING 21Z SAT THRU 00Z
SUN. /27

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL COAST THIS MORNING WITH A LESSER CHANCE TO SEE SMALL CRAFT
WINDS FURTHER N. WINDS SHOULD EASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH EXPANDS OVER THE WATERS...EASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS.
TONIGHT A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WILL MOVE UP OFFSHORE...TURNING
WINDS TO THE S. GUSTS LIKELY TO APPROACH 20 KT SUN. SHALLOW
STRATUS AND FOG USUALLY COME WITH THE WIND REVERSAL.

SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 9 TO 12 FT THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY CHOPPY ESPECIALLY WITH ANY ADDITIONAL WIND
GUSTS...SO HAVE ISSUED A SHORT DURATION SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR
THIS MORNING. WESTERLY SWELL 8 TO 9 FT WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...SEAS
THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL ARRIVE MID WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT OR
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO OVER 10 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO
     FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 4 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 201536
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
840 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SHIFT
EAST TO MONTANA LATE SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
TODAY AND THEN SWITCH TO ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL PEAK ON THE COAST TODAY AND AND IN THE INTERIOR ON SUNDAY. A
WEAKENING FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AND A STRONGER FRONT WILL REACH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AT 830AM LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE IN THE STRAIT AND
BANKED UP AGAINST THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS. THERE ARE LOW
CLOUDS IN PARTS OF THE SAN JUANS AND SRN VANCOUVER ISLAND...AND FROM
AROUND WHIDBEY ISLAND EAST THROUGH THE LOWLANDS OF SNOHOMISH COUNTY
AND NEAR I5 IN SKAGIT COUNTY. THE CLOUDS AND FOG EXTEND SOUTH
THROUGH THE METRO AREA. THE COAST...THE MOUNTAINS...AND MUCH OF SW
WA HAVE SUNNY SKIES AND MOST AREAS WILL BE SUNNY BY MIDDAY. OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EXPANDS
NORTH UP THE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND TOP OUT NEAR 80
ON THE COAST AND FROM SEATTLE SOUTH...WHILE HIGHS IN THE STRAIT MAY
STRUGGLE TO HIT 70. AFTER A MILD NIGHT SUNDAY WILL BE WARM FOR MOST
OF WRN WA...EXCEPT ON THE COAST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP. MARINE AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR OF WRN
WA SUNDAY NIGHT GIVING A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY FOR MONDAY...WITH THE
MORNING LOW CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM A
WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. THAT WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 00Z RUN. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF STAYING WITH THE IDEA OF A BREAK ON TUESDAY WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL
INDUCE A LITTLE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 70S OVER THE INTERIOR WITH A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE COAST. LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTING UP OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND REMAINING OFF THE COAST FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. MUCH STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM SPINNING
OUT OF THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE PRECIPITATION OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE TROUGH REMAINING OFFSHORE CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH
MOVING INLAND ON FRIDAY WHICH WOULD LOWER THE POPS. WILL WAIT FOR A
COUPLE OF MORE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS BEFORE TAKING THE CHANCE OF RAIN
OUT OF THE FRIDAY FORECAST. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT INLAND TONIGHT
GIVING INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COMBINED WITH A
THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WILL GIVE NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY AND NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW TONIGHT.
THE AIR MASS IS STABLE AND DRY EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A SHALLOW LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN THE INTERIOR
THIS MORNING.

LOW STRATUS WITH BASES AROUND FLIGHT LEVEL 005 AND TOPS AROUND 015
COVER THE PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS FROM ABOUT KBVS SOUTHWARD TO NEAR
KOLM. STRATUS ALSO COVERS THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND THE NORTH
END OF THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA. FORECAST MODELS AND A LOCAL
RADIATION-BASED TOOL SHOW THE STRATUS RAPIDLY ERODING AROUND
18Z...WHICH WILL LEAVE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS CENTERED AROUND 2000 FEET THIS MORNING. THIS
INVERSION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME SHALLOWER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE INVERSION WILL BE SHALLOW
ENOUGH ON SUNDAY MORNING THAT FOG WILL BE LIMITED TO MOST FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS AND WILL BE NO MORE THAN 100-200 FT DEEP. ALBRECHT

KSEA...LOW STRATUS AT THE TERMINAL WILL RAPIDLY MIX OUT SHORTLY
AFTER 18Z LEAVING CLEAR SKIES AT THE TERMINAL BY 19Z. CLEAR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT NORTH WINDS 9-13 KT
THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING TO BECOME NE 4-6 KT THIS EVENING AND E 5-8
KT EARLY SUN MORNING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER SOUTHEASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COMBINED WITH
A THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH OF LOW PRES ALONG THE COAST WILL GIVE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO THE WATERS TODAY. CHANNELED NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL WATERS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THERE UNTIL 03Z THIS EVENING. A 10 FT
SWELL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THERE. THE SWELL WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW
10 FT BY 11 AM THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE WEST ENTRANCE OF THE STRAIT
OF JUAN DE FUCA AND THE ADJACENT NEARSHORE COASTAL ZONE FROM CAPE
FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND. WILL WAIT TO SEE LATEST 12Z FORECAST
MODELS BEFORE ISSUING THE ADVISORY THERE.

THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND ON SUNDAY AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES SUNDAY EVENING AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. THIS WILL INDUCE A MARINE PUSH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY THAT
WILL TURN WINDS TO THE SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND RESULT IN
AREAS OF FOG SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THE MARINE AIR
WILL PUSH INLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WEST WINDS
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY. A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TO PARTS OF THE INLAND WATERS. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS COASTAL WATERS UNTIL
      11 AM PDT TODAY.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL THROUGH
      8 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KSEW 201536
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
840 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SHIFT
EAST TO MONTANA LATE SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
TODAY AND THEN SWITCH TO ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL PEAK ON THE COAST TODAY AND AND IN THE INTERIOR ON SUNDAY. A
WEAKENING FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AND A STRONGER FRONT WILL REACH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AT 830AM LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE IN THE STRAIT AND
BANKED UP AGAINST THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS. THERE ARE LOW
CLOUDS IN PARTS OF THE SAN JUANS AND SRN VANCOUVER ISLAND...AND FROM
AROUND WHIDBEY ISLAND EAST THROUGH THE LOWLANDS OF SNOHOMISH COUNTY
AND NEAR I5 IN SKAGIT COUNTY. THE CLOUDS AND FOG EXTEND SOUTH
THROUGH THE METRO AREA. THE COAST...THE MOUNTAINS...AND MUCH OF SW
WA HAVE SUNNY SKIES AND MOST AREAS WILL BE SUNNY BY MIDDAY. OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE EXPANDS
NORTH UP THE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND TOP OUT NEAR 80
ON THE COAST AND FROM SEATTLE SOUTH...WHILE HIGHS IN THE STRAIT MAY
STRUGGLE TO HIT 70. AFTER A MILD NIGHT SUNDAY WILL BE WARM FOR MOST
OF WRN WA...EXCEPT ON THE COAST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP. MARINE AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR OF WRN
WA SUNDAY NIGHT GIVING A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY FOR MONDAY...WITH THE
MORNING LOW CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM A
WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. THAT WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 00Z RUN. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF STAYING WITH THE IDEA OF A BREAK ON TUESDAY WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL
INDUCE A LITTLE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 70S OVER THE INTERIOR WITH A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE COAST. LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTING UP OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND REMAINING OFF THE COAST FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. MUCH STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM SPINNING
OUT OF THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE PRECIPITATION OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE TROUGH REMAINING OFFSHORE CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH
MOVING INLAND ON FRIDAY WHICH WOULD LOWER THE POPS. WILL WAIT FOR A
COUPLE OF MORE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS BEFORE TAKING THE CHANCE OF RAIN
OUT OF THE FRIDAY FORECAST. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT INLAND TONIGHT
GIVING INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COMBINED WITH A
THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WILL GIVE NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY AND NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW TONIGHT.
THE AIR MASS IS STABLE AND DRY EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A SHALLOW LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN THE INTERIOR
THIS MORNING.

LOW STRATUS WITH BASES AROUND FLIGHT LEVEL 005 AND TOPS AROUND 015
COVER THE PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS FROM ABOUT KBVS SOUTHWARD TO NEAR
KOLM. STRATUS ALSO COVERS THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND THE NORTH
END OF THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA. FORECAST MODELS AND A LOCAL
RADIATION-BASED TOOL SHOW THE STRATUS RAPIDLY ERODING AROUND
18Z...WHICH WILL LEAVE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS CENTERED AROUND 2000 FEET THIS MORNING. THIS
INVERSION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME SHALLOWER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE INVERSION WILL BE SHALLOW
ENOUGH ON SUNDAY MORNING THAT FOG WILL BE LIMITED TO MOST FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS AND WILL BE NO MORE THAN 100-200 FT DEEP. ALBRECHT

KSEA...LOW STRATUS AT THE TERMINAL WILL RAPIDLY MIX OUT SHORTLY
AFTER 18Z LEAVING CLEAR SKIES AT THE TERMINAL BY 19Z. CLEAR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT NORTH WINDS 9-13 KT
THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING TO BECOME NE 4-6 KT THIS EVENING AND E 5-8
KT EARLY SUN MORNING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER SOUTHEASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COMBINED WITH
A THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH OF LOW PRES ALONG THE COAST WILL GIVE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO THE WATERS TODAY. CHANNELED NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL WATERS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THERE UNTIL 03Z THIS EVENING. A 10 FT
SWELL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THERE. THE SWELL WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW
10 FT BY 11 AM THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE WEST ENTRANCE OF THE STRAIT
OF JUAN DE FUCA AND THE ADJACENT NEARSHORE COASTAL ZONE FROM CAPE
FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND. WILL WAIT TO SEE LATEST 12Z FORECAST
MODELS BEFORE ISSUING THE ADVISORY THERE.

THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND ON SUNDAY AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES SUNDAY EVENING AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. THIS WILL INDUCE A MARINE PUSH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY THAT
WILL TURN WINDS TO THE SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND RESULT IN
AREAS OF FOG SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THE MARINE AIR
WILL PUSH INLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WEST WINDS
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY. A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TO PARTS OF THE INLAND WATERS. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS COASTAL WATERS UNTIL
      11 AM PDT TODAY.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL THROUGH
      8 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KOTX 201132
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
432 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will provide a generally clear...warm and
dry weekend for the Inland Northwest. The new work week will start
out with continued above normal temperatures...but a weak cold
front will bring a chance of showers starting Tuesday. From mid-
week onward an approaching deep trough will increase the
probability of rain with cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday night...A ridge of high pressure will build
over the region, keeping dry conditions and warming temperatures
over the Inland Northwest. Surface high pressure will shift to the
east side of the continental divide, promoting northeast flow.
This will bring dry continental air into the region that will
downslope into the Columbia Basin, drying it further. Mostly clear
skies will promote daytime temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees
above seasonal normals for the weekend. By Sunday night some
monsoonal moisture may infiltrate the southeast zones but chances
are it will bring only mid level clouds but no precipitation.
/Kelch

Mon through Wed Night...With the breakdown of the upper ridge,
we`ll see a very weak wave move NE across the region Mon and Mon
Nt. Given the lack of deep instability over a dry sub- cloud
layer, it is not expected to produce much more than some clouds
for Mon Nt. Confidence is not high that this short-wave will be
dry though, mainly because model guidance shows a decent signal
for the possibility of high- based convective pcpn Mon into Tues
morning first in the Cascades, then spreading NE. The ECMWF was by
far the wettest with this feature compared to previous Nam and Gfs
runs. The latter models have trended slightly wetter, so this will
need to be watched. A slow- moving cold front is expected to make
landfall Tues Nt and Wed morning along the Pacific Nw coast. We`ve
been favoring a slower trend of this front as far as its Ewd
progression based on model trends and pattern recognition applied
to the north-south shearing offshore trough. The downstream
effects of this shearing will be a more meridional steering flow
over Ern Wa and N Idaho, leading to a more persistent thermal
ridge and warm, dry wx likely extending into Wed for most towns.
Confidence is increasing that this stalled front will not make
much eastward progress... likely not reaching the Idaho Panhandle.
For now, we limited the bulk of the rain through Wed Nt to the
Cascades. We warmed temperatures for far Ern Wa and the Idaho
Panhandle especially for Wed, with temps still around ten degrees
above normal. bz

Thursday through Saturday: A low off the coast of Washington and
a strong trough along the West Coast will push southern moisture
into the region. The models are having issues with the timing of
the this system as they have continued to push this pattern
further back from previous runs. Once the front pushes through the
region, rain showers will impact most of the region and
temperatures will return to season normals of around 70. An
occasional thunderstorm is possible along the Panhandle of Idaho
as the front pushes through the region on Friday. Temperatures
will increase around 10 degrees on Saturday from the highs on
Friday. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: High pressure will promote dry and VFR conditions at
TAF sites, with light diurnal winds for the next 24 hours. /EK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  54  87  56  84  57 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  81  52  86  52  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Pullman        85  50  88  51  85  54 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Lewiston       89  57  91  60  89  59 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Colville       84  49  87  48  86  50 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      77  47  82  45  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Kellogg        79  52  84  53  81  53 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Moses Lake     87  54  90  55  89  55 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      85  61  90  63  87  59 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           86  52  90  55  87  56 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 201132
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
432 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will provide a generally clear...warm and
dry weekend for the Inland Northwest. The new work week will start
out with continued above normal temperatures...but a weak cold
front will bring a chance of showers starting Tuesday. From mid-
week onward an approaching deep trough will increase the
probability of rain with cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday night...A ridge of high pressure will build
over the region, keeping dry conditions and warming temperatures
over the Inland Northwest. Surface high pressure will shift to the
east side of the continental divide, promoting northeast flow.
This will bring dry continental air into the region that will
downslope into the Columbia Basin, drying it further. Mostly clear
skies will promote daytime temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees
above seasonal normals for the weekend. By Sunday night some
monsoonal moisture may infiltrate the southeast zones but chances
are it will bring only mid level clouds but no precipitation.
/Kelch

Mon through Wed Night...With the breakdown of the upper ridge,
we`ll see a very weak wave move NE across the region Mon and Mon
Nt. Given the lack of deep instability over a dry sub- cloud
layer, it is not expected to produce much more than some clouds
for Mon Nt. Confidence is not high that this short-wave will be
dry though, mainly because model guidance shows a decent signal
for the possibility of high- based convective pcpn Mon into Tues
morning first in the Cascades, then spreading NE. The ECMWF was by
far the wettest with this feature compared to previous Nam and Gfs
runs. The latter models have trended slightly wetter, so this will
need to be watched. A slow- moving cold front is expected to make
landfall Tues Nt and Wed morning along the Pacific Nw coast. We`ve
been favoring a slower trend of this front as far as its Ewd
progression based on model trends and pattern recognition applied
to the north-south shearing offshore trough. The downstream
effects of this shearing will be a more meridional steering flow
over Ern Wa and N Idaho, leading to a more persistent thermal
ridge and warm, dry wx likely extending into Wed for most towns.
Confidence is increasing that this stalled front will not make
much eastward progress... likely not reaching the Idaho Panhandle.
For now, we limited the bulk of the rain through Wed Nt to the
Cascades. We warmed temperatures for far Ern Wa and the Idaho
Panhandle especially for Wed, with temps still around ten degrees
above normal. bz

Thursday through Saturday: A low off the coast of Washington and
a strong trough along the West Coast will push southern moisture
into the region. The models are having issues with the timing of
the this system as they have continued to push this pattern
further back from previous runs. Once the front pushes through the
region, rain showers will impact most of the region and
temperatures will return to season normals of around 70. An
occasional thunderstorm is possible along the Panhandle of Idaho
as the front pushes through the region on Friday. Temperatures
will increase around 10 degrees on Saturday from the highs on
Friday. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: High pressure will promote dry and VFR conditions at
TAF sites, with light diurnal winds for the next 24 hours. /EK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  54  87  56  84  57 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  81  52  86  52  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Pullman        85  50  88  51  85  54 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Lewiston       89  57  91  60  89  59 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Colville       84  49  87  48  86  50 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      77  47  82  45  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Kellogg        79  52  84  53  81  53 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Moses Lake     87  54  90  55  89  55 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      85  61  90  63  87  59 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           86  52  90  55  87  56 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 201114
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
415 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY SHIFTING
EAST ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY WILL PUSH HIGHS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE ON SUNDAY WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST AND ANOTHER WARM DAY FOR THE
INTERIOR. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM
WILL REACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE BEEN
ON THE DECREASE OVERNIGHT. AT 10Z/3AM MOST OF THE STRATUS AND FOG
WAS CONFINED TO THE COAST...STRAIT AND NORTHWEST INTERIOR WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS STRENGTHENING TODAY AS A THERMALLY
INDUCED TROUGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD UP THE COASTLINE. VAD WIND PROFILE
FROM THE KATX RADAR SHOWS NORTH WINDS TO 20 KNOTS AT 1000 FEET. THIS
MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE MODEL CROSS SECTIONS OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND GOOD
NORTHERLY WINDS RIGHT OFF THE GROUND WILL MAKE IT TOUGH FOR MORE FOG
TO FORM THIS MORNING OVER THE AREA. WILL CUT BACK ON THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE FOG. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECT THE MOST
PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO BE IN THE STRAIT WITH THE NORTHERLY
FLOW UPSLOPING AGAINST THE OLYMPICS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARMING
TODAY WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS 20C BY 00Z SUNDAY. 850
MB WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY DURING THE DAY WITH INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. END RESULT OF ALL THESE VARIABLES IS A
WARMER DAY FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S IN MOST PLACES. THE COOLEST
LOCATION WILL BE THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA WITH THE COAST HAVING
THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE WARM SPOT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW REMAINING OFFSHORE. THIS WILL HELP KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES UP
DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES WITH 50S COMMON AND ONLY THE COLDER
LOCATIONS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S.

BIT OF A TRICKY FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS FAR AS THE HIGHS GO FOR THE
INTERIOR. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW STARTS OFF THE DAY OFFSHORE BUT BY 00Z MONDAY
THE THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CASCADES AND THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS TURNED ONSHORE. TRANSITION TO ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN A STRATUS SURGE UP THE COAST ON SUNDAY COOLING HIGHS BACK
DOWN TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. HIGHS FOR THE INTERIOR ON SUNDAY WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON WHEN THE TRANSITION TO ONSHORE FLOW TAKES PLACES. WITH
THE CURRENT FORECASTED TRANSITION IN THE AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON SUNDAY VERSUS SATURDAYS READINGS
...70S TO MID 80S. A LITTLE QUICKER TRANSITION TO ONSHORE FLOW THAN
FORECASTED WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR SATURDAYS MAX TEMPERATURES.

LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A MARINE
PUSH BRINGING STRATUS INTO THE INTERIOR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IN STORE FOR MONDAY WITH THE STRATUS IN THE
MORNING FOLLOWED BY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A
WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. HIGHS MUCH COOLER OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH 10-15 DEGREES OF COOLING PUTTING HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

WEAKENING FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 00Z RUN. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF STAYING WITH THE IDEA OF A BREAK ON TUESDAY WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL
INDUCE A LITTLE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 70S OVER THE INTERIOR WITH A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE COAST. LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTING UP OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND REMAINING OFF THE COAST FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. MUCH STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM SPINNING
OUT OF THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE PRECIPITATION OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE TROUGH REMAINING OFFSHORE CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH
MOVING INLAND ON FRIDAY WHICH WOULD LOWER THE POPS. WILL WAIT FOR A
COUPLE OF MORE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS BEFORE TAKING THE CHANCE OF RAIN
OUT OF THE FRIDAY FORECAST. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT INLAND TONIGHT
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. AIR
MASS STABLE WITH AREAS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS MORNING.

SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS.
CLEARING HAS ALLOWED FOG TO FORM IN SOME LOCATIONS BUT IT HAS BEEN
SOMEWHAT PATCHY SO FAR. THE FOG WILL PROBABLY INCREASE A BIT THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

KSEA...SKIES HAVE CLEARED AS OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES. THERE IS A
CHANCE SOME FOG COULD AFFECT THE TERMINAL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING WHICH WILL BE COVERED WITH A TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAF.
NORTHERLY WIND 4-8 KNOTS...INCREASING TO 8-12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EAST
WINDS ARE LIKELY FOR THE WESTERN STRAIGHT AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS ZONE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME 10
FOOT WEST SWELL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST SHIFTS
INLAND. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLIES
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY. A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TO PARTS OF THE INLAND WATERS. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS COASTAL WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KSEW 201114
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
415 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY SHIFTING
EAST ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY WILL PUSH HIGHS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE ON SUNDAY WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST AND ANOTHER WARM DAY FOR THE
INTERIOR. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM
WILL REACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE BEEN
ON THE DECREASE OVERNIGHT. AT 10Z/3AM MOST OF THE STRATUS AND FOG
WAS CONFINED TO THE COAST...STRAIT AND NORTHWEST INTERIOR WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS STRENGTHENING TODAY AS A THERMALLY
INDUCED TROUGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD UP THE COASTLINE. VAD WIND PROFILE
FROM THE KATX RADAR SHOWS NORTH WINDS TO 20 KNOTS AT 1000 FEET. THIS
MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE MODEL CROSS SECTIONS OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND GOOD
NORTHERLY WINDS RIGHT OFF THE GROUND WILL MAKE IT TOUGH FOR MORE FOG
TO FORM THIS MORNING OVER THE AREA. WILL CUT BACK ON THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE FOG. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECT THE MOST
PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO BE IN THE STRAIT WITH THE NORTHERLY
FLOW UPSLOPING AGAINST THE OLYMPICS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARMING
TODAY WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS 20C BY 00Z SUNDAY. 850
MB WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY DURING THE DAY WITH INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. END RESULT OF ALL THESE VARIABLES IS A
WARMER DAY FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S IN MOST PLACES. THE COOLEST
LOCATION WILL BE THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA WITH THE COAST HAVING
THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE WARM SPOT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW REMAINING OFFSHORE. THIS WILL HELP KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES UP
DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES WITH 50S COMMON AND ONLY THE COLDER
LOCATIONS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S.

BIT OF A TRICKY FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS FAR AS THE HIGHS GO FOR THE
INTERIOR. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW STARTS OFF THE DAY OFFSHORE BUT BY 00Z MONDAY
THE THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CASCADES AND THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS TURNED ONSHORE. TRANSITION TO ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN A STRATUS SURGE UP THE COAST ON SUNDAY COOLING HIGHS BACK
DOWN TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. HIGHS FOR THE INTERIOR ON SUNDAY WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON WHEN THE TRANSITION TO ONSHORE FLOW TAKES PLACES. WITH
THE CURRENT FORECASTED TRANSITION IN THE AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON SUNDAY VERSUS SATURDAYS READINGS
...70S TO MID 80S. A LITTLE QUICKER TRANSITION TO ONSHORE FLOW THAN
FORECASTED WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR SATURDAYS MAX TEMPERATURES.

LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A MARINE
PUSH BRINGING STRATUS INTO THE INTERIOR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IN STORE FOR MONDAY WITH THE STRATUS IN THE
MORNING FOLLOWED BY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A
WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. HIGHS MUCH COOLER OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH 10-15 DEGREES OF COOLING PUTTING HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

WEAKENING FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 00Z RUN. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF STAYING WITH THE IDEA OF A BREAK ON TUESDAY WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL
INDUCE A LITTLE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 70S OVER THE INTERIOR WITH A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE COAST. LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTING UP OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND REMAINING OFF THE COAST FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. MUCH STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM SPINNING
OUT OF THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE PRECIPITATION OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE TROUGH REMAINING OFFSHORE CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH
MOVING INLAND ON FRIDAY WHICH WOULD LOWER THE POPS. WILL WAIT FOR A
COUPLE OF MORE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS BEFORE TAKING THE CHANCE OF RAIN
OUT OF THE FRIDAY FORECAST. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT INLAND TONIGHT
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. AIR
MASS STABLE WITH AREAS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS MORNING.

SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS.
CLEARING HAS ALLOWED FOG TO FORM IN SOME LOCATIONS BUT IT HAS BEEN
SOMEWHAT PATCHY SO FAR. THE FOG WILL PROBABLY INCREASE A BIT THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

KSEA...SKIES HAVE CLEARED AS OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES. THERE IS A
CHANCE SOME FOG COULD AFFECT THE TERMINAL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING WHICH WILL BE COVERED WITH A TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAF.
NORTHERLY WIND 4-8 KNOTS...INCREASING TO 8-12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EAST
WINDS ARE LIKELY FOR THE WESTERN STRAIGHT AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS ZONE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME 10
FOOT WEST SWELL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST SHIFTS
INLAND. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLIES
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY. A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TO PARTS OF THE INLAND WATERS. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS COASTAL WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KSEW 201114
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
415 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY SHIFTING
EAST ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY WILL PUSH HIGHS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE ON SUNDAY WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST AND ANOTHER WARM DAY FOR THE
INTERIOR. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM
WILL REACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE BEEN
ON THE DECREASE OVERNIGHT. AT 10Z/3AM MOST OF THE STRATUS AND FOG
WAS CONFINED TO THE COAST...STRAIT AND NORTHWEST INTERIOR WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS STRENGTHENING TODAY AS A THERMALLY
INDUCED TROUGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD UP THE COASTLINE. VAD WIND PROFILE
FROM THE KATX RADAR SHOWS NORTH WINDS TO 20 KNOTS AT 1000 FEET. THIS
MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE MODEL CROSS SECTIONS OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND GOOD
NORTHERLY WINDS RIGHT OFF THE GROUND WILL MAKE IT TOUGH FOR MORE FOG
TO FORM THIS MORNING OVER THE AREA. WILL CUT BACK ON THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE FOG. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECT THE MOST
PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO BE IN THE STRAIT WITH THE NORTHERLY
FLOW UPSLOPING AGAINST THE OLYMPICS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARMING
TODAY WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS 20C BY 00Z SUNDAY. 850
MB WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY DURING THE DAY WITH INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. END RESULT OF ALL THESE VARIABLES IS A
WARMER DAY FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S IN MOST PLACES. THE COOLEST
LOCATION WILL BE THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA WITH THE COAST HAVING
THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE WARM SPOT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW REMAINING OFFSHORE. THIS WILL HELP KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES UP
DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES WITH 50S COMMON AND ONLY THE COLDER
LOCATIONS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S.

BIT OF A TRICKY FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS FAR AS THE HIGHS GO FOR THE
INTERIOR. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW STARTS OFF THE DAY OFFSHORE BUT BY 00Z MONDAY
THE THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CASCADES AND THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS TURNED ONSHORE. TRANSITION TO ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN A STRATUS SURGE UP THE COAST ON SUNDAY COOLING HIGHS BACK
DOWN TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. HIGHS FOR THE INTERIOR ON SUNDAY WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON WHEN THE TRANSITION TO ONSHORE FLOW TAKES PLACES. WITH
THE CURRENT FORECASTED TRANSITION IN THE AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON SUNDAY VERSUS SATURDAYS READINGS
...70S TO MID 80S. A LITTLE QUICKER TRANSITION TO ONSHORE FLOW THAN
FORECASTED WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR SATURDAYS MAX TEMPERATURES.

LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A MARINE
PUSH BRINGING STRATUS INTO THE INTERIOR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IN STORE FOR MONDAY WITH THE STRATUS IN THE
MORNING FOLLOWED BY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A
WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. HIGHS MUCH COOLER OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH 10-15 DEGREES OF COOLING PUTTING HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

WEAKENING FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 00Z RUN. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF STAYING WITH THE IDEA OF A BREAK ON TUESDAY WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL
INDUCE A LITTLE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 70S OVER THE INTERIOR WITH A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE COAST. LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTING UP OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND REMAINING OFF THE COAST FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. MUCH STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM SPINNING
OUT OF THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE PRECIPITATION OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE TROUGH REMAINING OFFSHORE CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH
MOVING INLAND ON FRIDAY WHICH WOULD LOWER THE POPS. WILL WAIT FOR A
COUPLE OF MORE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS BEFORE TAKING THE CHANCE OF RAIN
OUT OF THE FRIDAY FORECAST. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT INLAND TONIGHT
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. AIR
MASS STABLE WITH AREAS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS MORNING.

SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS.
CLEARING HAS ALLOWED FOG TO FORM IN SOME LOCATIONS BUT IT HAS BEEN
SOMEWHAT PATCHY SO FAR. THE FOG WILL PROBABLY INCREASE A BIT THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

KSEA...SKIES HAVE CLEARED AS OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES. THERE IS A
CHANCE SOME FOG COULD AFFECT THE TERMINAL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING WHICH WILL BE COVERED WITH A TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAF.
NORTHERLY WIND 4-8 KNOTS...INCREASING TO 8-12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EAST
WINDS ARE LIKELY FOR THE WESTERN STRAIGHT AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS ZONE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME 10
FOOT WEST SWELL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST SHIFTS
INLAND. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLIES
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY. A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TO PARTS OF THE INLAND WATERS. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS COASTAL WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KSEW 201114
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
415 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY SHIFTING
EAST ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY WILL PUSH HIGHS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE ON SUNDAY WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST AND ANOTHER WARM DAY FOR THE
INTERIOR. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM
WILL REACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE BEEN
ON THE DECREASE OVERNIGHT. AT 10Z/3AM MOST OF THE STRATUS AND FOG
WAS CONFINED TO THE COAST...STRAIT AND NORTHWEST INTERIOR WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS STRENGTHENING TODAY AS A THERMALLY
INDUCED TROUGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD UP THE COASTLINE. VAD WIND PROFILE
FROM THE KATX RADAR SHOWS NORTH WINDS TO 20 KNOTS AT 1000 FEET. THIS
MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE MODEL CROSS SECTIONS OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND GOOD
NORTHERLY WINDS RIGHT OFF THE GROUND WILL MAKE IT TOUGH FOR MORE FOG
TO FORM THIS MORNING OVER THE AREA. WILL CUT BACK ON THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE FOG. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECT THE MOST
PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO BE IN THE STRAIT WITH THE NORTHERLY
FLOW UPSLOPING AGAINST THE OLYMPICS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARMING
TODAY WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS 20C BY 00Z SUNDAY. 850
MB WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY DURING THE DAY WITH INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. END RESULT OF ALL THESE VARIABLES IS A
WARMER DAY FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S IN MOST PLACES. THE COOLEST
LOCATION WILL BE THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA WITH THE COAST HAVING
THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE WARM SPOT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW REMAINING OFFSHORE. THIS WILL HELP KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES UP
DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES WITH 50S COMMON AND ONLY THE COLDER
LOCATIONS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S.

BIT OF A TRICKY FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS FAR AS THE HIGHS GO FOR THE
INTERIOR. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW STARTS OFF THE DAY OFFSHORE BUT BY 00Z MONDAY
THE THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CASCADES AND THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS TURNED ONSHORE. TRANSITION TO ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN A STRATUS SURGE UP THE COAST ON SUNDAY COOLING HIGHS BACK
DOWN TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. HIGHS FOR THE INTERIOR ON SUNDAY WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON WHEN THE TRANSITION TO ONSHORE FLOW TAKES PLACES. WITH
THE CURRENT FORECASTED TRANSITION IN THE AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON SUNDAY VERSUS SATURDAYS READINGS
...70S TO MID 80S. A LITTLE QUICKER TRANSITION TO ONSHORE FLOW THAN
FORECASTED WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR SATURDAYS MAX TEMPERATURES.

LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A MARINE
PUSH BRINGING STRATUS INTO THE INTERIOR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IN STORE FOR MONDAY WITH THE STRATUS IN THE
MORNING FOLLOWED BY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A
WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. HIGHS MUCH COOLER OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH 10-15 DEGREES OF COOLING PUTTING HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

WEAKENING FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 00Z RUN. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF STAYING WITH THE IDEA OF A BREAK ON TUESDAY WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL
INDUCE A LITTLE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 70S OVER THE INTERIOR WITH A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE COAST. LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTING UP OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND REMAINING OFF THE COAST FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. MUCH STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM SPINNING
OUT OF THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE PRECIPITATION OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE TROUGH REMAINING OFFSHORE CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH
MOVING INLAND ON FRIDAY WHICH WOULD LOWER THE POPS. WILL WAIT FOR A
COUPLE OF MORE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS BEFORE TAKING THE CHANCE OF RAIN
OUT OF THE FRIDAY FORECAST. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT INLAND TONIGHT
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. AIR
MASS STABLE WITH AREAS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS MORNING.

SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS.
CLEARING HAS ALLOWED FOG TO FORM IN SOME LOCATIONS BUT IT HAS BEEN
SOMEWHAT PATCHY SO FAR. THE FOG WILL PROBABLY INCREASE A BIT THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

KSEA...SKIES HAVE CLEARED AS OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES. THERE IS A
CHANCE SOME FOG COULD AFFECT THE TERMINAL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING WHICH WILL BE COVERED WITH A TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAF.
NORTHERLY WIND 4-8 KNOTS...INCREASING TO 8-12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EAST
WINDS ARE LIKELY FOR THE WESTERN STRAIGHT AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS ZONE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME 10
FOOT WEST SWELL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST SHIFTS
INLAND. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLIES
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY. A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TO PARTS OF THE INLAND WATERS. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS COASTAL WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KPQR 201015
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
315 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER SW OREGON COAST WILL BUILD
NORTH ALONG THE PAC NW COAST TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS INLAND.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP SKIES SUNNY AND SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S FOR THE COAST AND POSSIBLY LOW 90S FOR INLAND AREAS TODAY. COOLER
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN SUNDAY.MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS A
WEAK FRONT BRUSHES BY. A STRONGER FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
SLIVER OF LOW MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SKIES ARE OTHERWISE CLEAR...EXCEPT MARINE STRATUS IS
STARTING TO PUSH UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BE REPLACED BY EASTERLY WINDS LATE THIS MORNING AS
A THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST. THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND CASCADE GAPS...AND WILL
SUPPORT A SUNNY AND WARM DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE
LOW 90S FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEY AND MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE COAST.

EAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR WILDFIRE GROWTH...AND SMOKE FROM THE 36-PIT AND
DECEPTION FIRES SHOULD SPREAD BACK INTO THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY TODAY.

THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. LOW MARINE CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AND REACH NEWPORT TONIGHT. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AND REACH
ASTORIA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRASTIC COOLING FOR THE OREGON COAST. ONSHORE WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BRING THE COOLER MARINE AIR INLAND AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK
IN THE MID 80S FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND THE 60S FOR THE COAST

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE MARINE
STRATUS WILL PUSH FURTHER INLAND MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES...AT LEAST TO NORTHERN AREAS...THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY RAIN FROM THIS
FRONT...JUST A FEW SPRINKLES HERE AND THERE MONDAY NIGHT. TJ

.LONG TERM...A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUESDAY AND BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES WITH THIS FRONT...AND A 120KT 500MB JET
TO PROVIDE LIFT. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME AREAS MEASURING AN INCH OR
MORE OF RAIN. A COUPLE OF WET DISTURBANCES WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN
UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND SHOWERY
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TJ

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER NW OREGON
AS OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES TODAY AND EASES TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE
SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH 16Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z
SUN. EAST WINDS INCREASE IN THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...THEN EASE TONIGHT. EAST WIND PROBABLY SURFACING AT
KPDX AROUND 18Z AND PEAKING 21Z SAT THRU 00Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL COAST THIS MORNING WITH A LESSER CHANCE TO SEE SMALL CRAFT
WINDS FURTHER N. WINDS SHOULD EASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH EXPANDS OVER THE WATERS...EASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS.
TONIGHT A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WILL MOVE UP OFFSHORE...TURNING
WINDS TO THE S. GUSTS LIKELY TO APPROACH 20 KT SUN. SHALLOW
STRATUS AND FOG USUALLY COME WITH THE WIND REVERSAL.

A WESTERLY SWELL 8 TO 9 FT ARRIVED IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AND
SHOULD FILL IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING. SEAS THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL ARRIVE MID WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT OR
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO OVER 10 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 4 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 201015
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
315 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER SW OREGON COAST WILL BUILD
NORTH ALONG THE PAC NW COAST TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS INLAND.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP SKIES SUNNY AND SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S FOR THE COAST AND POSSIBLY LOW 90S FOR INLAND AREAS TODAY. COOLER
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN SUNDAY.MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS A
WEAK FRONT BRUSHES BY. A STRONGER FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
SLIVER OF LOW MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SKIES ARE OTHERWISE CLEAR...EXCEPT MARINE STRATUS IS
STARTING TO PUSH UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BE REPLACED BY EASTERLY WINDS LATE THIS MORNING AS
A THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST. THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND CASCADE GAPS...AND WILL
SUPPORT A SUNNY AND WARM DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE
LOW 90S FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEY AND MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE COAST.

EAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR WILDFIRE GROWTH...AND SMOKE FROM THE 36-PIT AND
DECEPTION FIRES SHOULD SPREAD BACK INTO THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY TODAY.

THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. LOW MARINE CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AND REACH NEWPORT TONIGHT. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AND REACH
ASTORIA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRASTIC COOLING FOR THE OREGON COAST. ONSHORE WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BRING THE COOLER MARINE AIR INLAND AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK
IN THE MID 80S FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND THE 60S FOR THE COAST

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE MARINE
STRATUS WILL PUSH FURTHER INLAND MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES...AT LEAST TO NORTHERN AREAS...THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY RAIN FROM THIS
FRONT...JUST A FEW SPRINKLES HERE AND THERE MONDAY NIGHT. TJ

.LONG TERM...A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUESDAY AND BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES WITH THIS FRONT...AND A 120KT 500MB JET
TO PROVIDE LIFT. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME AREAS MEASURING AN INCH OR
MORE OF RAIN. A COUPLE OF WET DISTURBANCES WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN
UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND SHOWERY
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TJ

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER NW OREGON
AS OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES TODAY AND EASES TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE
SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH 16Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z
SUN. EAST WINDS INCREASE IN THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...THEN EASE TONIGHT. EAST WIND PROBABLY SURFACING AT
KPDX AROUND 18Z AND PEAKING 21Z SAT THRU 00Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL COAST THIS MORNING WITH A LESSER CHANCE TO SEE SMALL CRAFT
WINDS FURTHER N. WINDS SHOULD EASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH EXPANDS OVER THE WATERS...EASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS.
TONIGHT A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WILL MOVE UP OFFSHORE...TURNING
WINDS TO THE S. GUSTS LIKELY TO APPROACH 20 KT SUN. SHALLOW
STRATUS AND FOG USUALLY COME WITH THE WIND REVERSAL.

A WESTERLY SWELL 8 TO 9 FT ARRIVED IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AND
SHOULD FILL IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING. SEAS THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL ARRIVE MID WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT OR
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO OVER 10 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 4 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 201015
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
315 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER SW OREGON COAST WILL BUILD
NORTH ALONG THE PAC NW COAST TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS INLAND.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP SKIES SUNNY AND SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S FOR THE COAST AND POSSIBLY LOW 90S FOR INLAND AREAS TODAY. COOLER
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN SUNDAY.MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS A
WEAK FRONT BRUSHES BY. A STRONGER FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
SLIVER OF LOW MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SKIES ARE OTHERWISE CLEAR...EXCEPT MARINE STRATUS IS
STARTING TO PUSH UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BE REPLACED BY EASTERLY WINDS LATE THIS MORNING AS
A THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST. THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND CASCADE GAPS...AND WILL
SUPPORT A SUNNY AND WARM DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE
LOW 90S FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEY AND MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE COAST.

EAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR WILDFIRE GROWTH...AND SMOKE FROM THE 36-PIT AND
DECEPTION FIRES SHOULD SPREAD BACK INTO THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY TODAY.

THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. LOW MARINE CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AND REACH NEWPORT TONIGHT. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AND REACH
ASTORIA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRASTIC COOLING FOR THE OREGON COAST. ONSHORE WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BRING THE COOLER MARINE AIR INLAND AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK
IN THE MID 80S FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND THE 60S FOR THE COAST

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE MARINE
STRATUS WILL PUSH FURTHER INLAND MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES...AT LEAST TO NORTHERN AREAS...THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY RAIN FROM THIS
FRONT...JUST A FEW SPRINKLES HERE AND THERE MONDAY NIGHT. TJ

.LONG TERM...A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUESDAY AND BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES WITH THIS FRONT...AND A 120KT 500MB JET
TO PROVIDE LIFT. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME AREAS MEASURING AN INCH OR
MORE OF RAIN. A COUPLE OF WET DISTURBANCES WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN
UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND SHOWERY
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TJ

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER NW OREGON
AS OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES TODAY AND EASES TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE
SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH 16Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z
SUN. EAST WINDS INCREASE IN THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...THEN EASE TONIGHT. EAST WIND PROBABLY SURFACING AT
KPDX AROUND 18Z AND PEAKING 21Z SAT THRU 00Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL COAST THIS MORNING WITH A LESSER CHANCE TO SEE SMALL CRAFT
WINDS FURTHER N. WINDS SHOULD EASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH EXPANDS OVER THE WATERS...EASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS.
TONIGHT A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WILL MOVE UP OFFSHORE...TURNING
WINDS TO THE S. GUSTS LIKELY TO APPROACH 20 KT SUN. SHALLOW
STRATUS AND FOG USUALLY COME WITH THE WIND REVERSAL.

A WESTERLY SWELL 8 TO 9 FT ARRIVED IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AND
SHOULD FILL IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING. SEAS THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL ARRIVE MID WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT OR
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO OVER 10 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 4 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 201015
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
315 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER SW OREGON COAST WILL BUILD
NORTH ALONG THE PAC NW COAST TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS INLAND.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP SKIES SUNNY AND SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S FOR THE COAST AND POSSIBLY LOW 90S FOR INLAND AREAS TODAY. COOLER
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN SUNDAY.MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS A
WEAK FRONT BRUSHES BY. A STRONGER FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
SLIVER OF LOW MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SKIES ARE OTHERWISE CLEAR...EXCEPT MARINE STRATUS IS
STARTING TO PUSH UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BE REPLACED BY EASTERLY WINDS LATE THIS MORNING AS
A THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST. THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND CASCADE GAPS...AND WILL
SUPPORT A SUNNY AND WARM DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE
LOW 90S FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEY AND MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE COAST.

EAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR WILDFIRE GROWTH...AND SMOKE FROM THE 36-PIT AND
DECEPTION FIRES SHOULD SPREAD BACK INTO THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY TODAY.

THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. LOW MARINE CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AND REACH NEWPORT TONIGHT. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AND REACH
ASTORIA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRASTIC COOLING FOR THE OREGON COAST. ONSHORE WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BRING THE COOLER MARINE AIR INLAND AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK
IN THE MID 80S FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND THE 60S FOR THE COAST

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE MARINE
STRATUS WILL PUSH FURTHER INLAND MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES...AT LEAST TO NORTHERN AREAS...THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY RAIN FROM THIS
FRONT...JUST A FEW SPRINKLES HERE AND THERE MONDAY NIGHT. TJ

.LONG TERM...A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUESDAY AND BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES WITH THIS FRONT...AND A 120KT 500MB JET
TO PROVIDE LIFT. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME AREAS MEASURING AN INCH OR
MORE OF RAIN. A COUPLE OF WET DISTURBANCES WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN
UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND SHOWERY
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TJ

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER NW OREGON
AS OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES TODAY AND EASES TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE
SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH 16Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z
SUN. EAST WINDS INCREASE IN THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...THEN EASE TONIGHT. EAST WIND PROBABLY SURFACING AT
KPDX AROUND 18Z AND PEAKING 21Z SAT THRU 00Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL COAST THIS MORNING WITH A LESSER CHANCE TO SEE SMALL CRAFT
WINDS FURTHER N. WINDS SHOULD EASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH EXPANDS OVER THE WATERS...EASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS.
TONIGHT A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WILL MOVE UP OFFSHORE...TURNING
WINDS TO THE S. GUSTS LIKELY TO APPROACH 20 KT SUN. SHALLOW
STRATUS AND FOG USUALLY COME WITH THE WIND REVERSAL.

A WESTERLY SWELL 8 TO 9 FT ARRIVED IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AND
SHOULD FILL IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING. SEAS THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL ARRIVE MID WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT OR
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO OVER 10 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 4 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 200941
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
241 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will provide a generally clear...warm and
dry weekend for the Inland Northwest. The new work week will start
out with continued above normal temperatures...but a weak cold
front will bring a chance of showers starting Tuesday. From mid-
week onward an approaching deep trough will increase the
probability of rain with cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday night...A ridge of high pressure will build
over the region, keeping dry conditions and warming temperatures
over the Inland Northwest. Surface high pressure will shift to the
east side of the continental divide, promoting northeast flow.
This will bring dry continental air into the region that will
downslope into the Columbia Basin, drying it further. Mostly clear
skies will promote daytime temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees
above seasonal normals for the weekend. By Sunday night some
monsoonal moisture may infiltrate the southeast zones but chances
are it will bring only mid level clouds but no precipitation.
/Kelch

Mon through Wed Night...With the breakdown of the upper ridge,
we`ll see a very weak wave move NE across the region Mon and Mon
Nt. Given the lack of deep instability over a dry sub- cloud
layer, it is not expected to produce much more than some clouds
for Mon Nt. Confidence is not high that this short-wave will be
dry though, mainly because model guidance shows a decent signal
for the possibility of high- based convective pcpn Mon into Tues
morning first in the Cascades, then spreading NE. The ECMWF was by
far the wettest with this feature compared to previous Nam and Gfs
runs. The latter models have trended slightly wetter, so this will
need to be watched. A slow- moving cold front is expected to make
landfall Tues Nt and Wed morning along the Pacific Nw coast. We`ve
been favoring a slower trend of this front as far as its Ewd
progression based on model trends and pattern recognition applied
to the north-south shearing offshore trough. The downstream
effects of this shearing will be a more meridional steering flow
over Ern Wa and N Idaho, leading to a more persistent thermal
ridge and warm, dry wx likely extending into Wed for most towns.
Confidence is increasing that this stalled front will not make
much eastward progress... likely not reaching the Idaho Panhandle.
For now, we limited the bulk of the rain through Wed Nt to the
Cascades. We warmed temperatures for far Ern Wa and the Idaho
Panhandle especially for Wed, with temps still around ten degrees
above normal. bz

Thursday through Saturday: A low off the coast of Washington and
a strong trough along the West Coast will push southern moisture
into the region. The models are having issues with the timing of
the this system as they have continued to push this pattern
further back from previous runs. Once the front pushes through the
region, rainshowers will impact most of the region and
temperatures will return to season normals of around 70. An
occasional thunderstorm is possible along the Panhandle of Idaho
as the front pushes through the region on Friday. Temperatures
will increase around 10 degrees on Saturday from the highs on
Friday. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure will promote dry and VFR conditions at
TAF sites, with light diurnal winds. Some patchy fog is forecast
for the sheltered mountain valleys over NE WA and north ID late
overnight and Saturday morning (09-18Z). At this time it is
expected to remain away from TAF sites. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  54  87  56  84  57 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  81  52  86  52  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Pullman        85  50  88  51  85  54 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Lewiston       89  57  91  60  89  59 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Colville       84  49  87  48  86  50 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      77  47  82  45  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Kellogg        79  52  84  53  81  53 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Moses Lake     87  54  90  55  89  55 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      85  61  90  63  87  59 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           86  52  90  55  87  56 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 200941
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
241 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will provide a generally clear...warm and
dry weekend for the Inland Northwest. The new work week will start
out with continued above normal temperatures...but a weak cold
front will bring a chance of showers starting Tuesday. From mid-
week onward an approaching deep trough will increase the
probability of rain with cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday night...A ridge of high pressure will build
over the region, keeping dry conditions and warming temperatures
over the Inland Northwest. Surface high pressure will shift to the
east side of the continental divide, promoting northeast flow.
This will bring dry continental air into the region that will
downslope into the Columbia Basin, drying it further. Mostly clear
skies will promote daytime temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees
above seasonal normals for the weekend. By Sunday night some
monsoonal moisture may infiltrate the southeast zones but chances
are it will bring only mid level clouds but no precipitation.
/Kelch

Mon through Wed Night...With the breakdown of the upper ridge,
we`ll see a very weak wave move NE across the region Mon and Mon
Nt. Given the lack of deep instability over a dry sub- cloud
layer, it is not expected to produce much more than some clouds
for Mon Nt. Confidence is not high that this short-wave will be
dry though, mainly because model guidance shows a decent signal
for the possibility of high- based convective pcpn Mon into Tues
morning first in the Cascades, then spreading NE. The ECMWF was by
far the wettest with this feature compared to previous Nam and Gfs
runs. The latter models have trended slightly wetter, so this will
need to be watched. A slow- moving cold front is expected to make
landfall Tues Nt and Wed morning along the Pacific Nw coast. We`ve
been favoring a slower trend of this front as far as its Ewd
progression based on model trends and pattern recognition applied
to the north-south shearing offshore trough. The downstream
effects of this shearing will be a more meridional steering flow
over Ern Wa and N Idaho, leading to a more persistent thermal
ridge and warm, dry wx likely extending into Wed for most towns.
Confidence is increasing that this stalled front will not make
much eastward progress... likely not reaching the Idaho Panhandle.
For now, we limited the bulk of the rain through Wed Nt to the
Cascades. We warmed temperatures for far Ern Wa and the Idaho
Panhandle especially for Wed, with temps still around ten degrees
above normal. bz

Thursday through Saturday: A low off the coast of Washington and
a strong trough along the West Coast will push southern moisture
into the region. The models are having issues with the timing of
the this system as they have continued to push this pattern
further back from previous runs. Once the front pushes through the
region, rainshowers will impact most of the region and
temperatures will return to season normals of around 70. An
occasional thunderstorm is possible along the Panhandle of Idaho
as the front pushes through the region on Friday. Temperatures
will increase around 10 degrees on Saturday from the highs on
Friday. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure will promote dry and VFR conditions at
TAF sites, with light diurnal winds. Some patchy fog is forecast
for the sheltered mountain valleys over NE WA and north ID late
overnight and Saturday morning (09-18Z). At this time it is
expected to remain away from TAF sites. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  54  87  56  84  57 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  81  52  86  52  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Pullman        85  50  88  51  85  54 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Lewiston       89  57  91  60  89  59 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Colville       84  49  87  48  86  50 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      77  47  82  45  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Kellogg        79  52  84  53  81  53 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Moses Lake     87  54  90  55  89  55 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      85  61  90  63  87  59 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           86  52  90  55  87  56 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 200941
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
241 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will provide a generally clear...warm and
dry weekend for the Inland Northwest. The new work week will start
out with continued above normal temperatures...but a weak cold
front will bring a chance of showers starting Tuesday. From mid-
week onward an approaching deep trough will increase the
probability of rain with cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday night...A ridge of high pressure will build
over the region, keeping dry conditions and warming temperatures
over the Inland Northwest. Surface high pressure will shift to the
east side of the continental divide, promoting northeast flow.
This will bring dry continental air into the region that will
downslope into the Columbia Basin, drying it further. Mostly clear
skies will promote daytime temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees
above seasonal normals for the weekend. By Sunday night some
monsoonal moisture may infiltrate the southeast zones but chances
are it will bring only mid level clouds but no precipitation.
/Kelch

Mon through Wed Night...With the breakdown of the upper ridge,
we`ll see a very weak wave move NE across the region Mon and Mon
Nt. Given the lack of deep instability over a dry sub- cloud
layer, it is not expected to produce much more than some clouds
for Mon Nt. Confidence is not high that this short-wave will be
dry though, mainly because model guidance shows a decent signal
for the possibility of high- based convective pcpn Mon into Tues
morning first in the Cascades, then spreading NE. The ECMWF was by
far the wettest with this feature compared to previous Nam and Gfs
runs. The latter models have trended slightly wetter, so this will
need to be watched. A slow- moving cold front is expected to make
landfall Tues Nt and Wed morning along the Pacific Nw coast. We`ve
been favoring a slower trend of this front as far as its Ewd
progression based on model trends and pattern recognition applied
to the north-south shearing offshore trough. The downstream
effects of this shearing will be a more meridional steering flow
over Ern Wa and N Idaho, leading to a more persistent thermal
ridge and warm, dry wx likely extending into Wed for most towns.
Confidence is increasing that this stalled front will not make
much eastward progress... likely not reaching the Idaho Panhandle.
For now, we limited the bulk of the rain through Wed Nt to the
Cascades. We warmed temperatures for far Ern Wa and the Idaho
Panhandle especially for Wed, with temps still around ten degrees
above normal. bz

Thursday through Saturday: A low off the coast of Washington and
a strong trough along the West Coast will push southern moisture
into the region. The models are having issues with the timing of
the this system as they have continued to push this pattern
further back from previous runs. Once the front pushes through the
region, rainshowers will impact most of the region and
temperatures will return to season normals of around 70. An
occasional thunderstorm is possible along the Panhandle of Idaho
as the front pushes through the region on Friday. Temperatures
will increase around 10 degrees on Saturday from the highs on
Friday. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure will promote dry and VFR conditions at
TAF sites, with light diurnal winds. Some patchy fog is forecast
for the sheltered mountain valleys over NE WA and north ID late
overnight and Saturday morning (09-18Z). At this time it is
expected to remain away from TAF sites. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  54  87  56  84  57 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  81  52  86  52  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Pullman        85  50  88  51  85  54 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Lewiston       89  57  91  60  89  59 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Colville       84  49  87  48  86  50 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      77  47  82  45  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Kellogg        79  52  84  53  81  53 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Moses Lake     87  54  90  55  89  55 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      85  61  90  63  87  59 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           86  52  90  55  87  56 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 200941
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
241 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will provide a generally clear...warm and
dry weekend for the Inland Northwest. The new work week will start
out with continued above normal temperatures...but a weak cold
front will bring a chance of showers starting Tuesday. From mid-
week onward an approaching deep trough will increase the
probability of rain with cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday night...A ridge of high pressure will build
over the region, keeping dry conditions and warming temperatures
over the Inland Northwest. Surface high pressure will shift to the
east side of the continental divide, promoting northeast flow.
This will bring dry continental air into the region that will
downslope into the Columbia Basin, drying it further. Mostly clear
skies will promote daytime temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees
above seasonal normals for the weekend. By Sunday night some
monsoonal moisture may infiltrate the southeast zones but chances
are it will bring only mid level clouds but no precipitation.
/Kelch

Mon through Wed Night...With the breakdown of the upper ridge,
we`ll see a very weak wave move NE across the region Mon and Mon
Nt. Given the lack of deep instability over a dry sub- cloud
layer, it is not expected to produce much more than some clouds
for Mon Nt. Confidence is not high that this short-wave will be
dry though, mainly because model guidance shows a decent signal
for the possibility of high- based convective pcpn Mon into Tues
morning first in the Cascades, then spreading NE. The ECMWF was by
far the wettest with this feature compared to previous Nam and Gfs
runs. The latter models have trended slightly wetter, so this will
need to be watched. A slow- moving cold front is expected to make
landfall Tues Nt and Wed morning along the Pacific Nw coast. We`ve
been favoring a slower trend of this front as far as its Ewd
progression based on model trends and pattern recognition applied
to the north-south shearing offshore trough. The downstream
effects of this shearing will be a more meridional steering flow
over Ern Wa and N Idaho, leading to a more persistent thermal
ridge and warm, dry wx likely extending into Wed for most towns.
Confidence is increasing that this stalled front will not make
much eastward progress... likely not reaching the Idaho Panhandle.
For now, we limited the bulk of the rain through Wed Nt to the
Cascades. We warmed temperatures for far Ern Wa and the Idaho
Panhandle especially for Wed, with temps still around ten degrees
above normal. bz

Thursday through Saturday: A low off the coast of Washington and
a strong trough along the West Coast will push southern moisture
into the region. The models are having issues with the timing of
the this system as they have continued to push this pattern
further back from previous runs. Once the front pushes through the
region, rainshowers will impact most of the region and
temperatures will return to season normals of around 70. An
occasional thunderstorm is possible along the Panhandle of Idaho
as the front pushes through the region on Friday. Temperatures
will increase around 10 degrees on Saturday from the highs on
Friday. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure will promote dry and VFR conditions at
TAF sites, with light diurnal winds. Some patchy fog is forecast
for the sheltered mountain valleys over NE WA and north ID late
overnight and Saturday morning (09-18Z). At this time it is
expected to remain away from TAF sites. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        82  54  87  56  84  57 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  81  52  86  52  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Pullman        85  50  88  51  85  54 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Lewiston       89  57  91  60  89  59 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Colville       84  49  87  48  86  50 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      77  47  82  45  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Kellogg        79  52  84  53  81  53 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Moses Lake     87  54  90  55  89  55 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      85  61  90  63  87  59 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           86  52  90  55  87  56 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 200522
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1022 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will provide a generally clear...warm and
dry weekend for the Inland Northwest. The new work week will start
out with continued above normal temperatures but a weak cold front
will bring a chance of showers starting Tuesday. From mid-week
onward an approaching deep trough will increase the probability of
rain with cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...An upper level ridge is beginning to
build over the region this afternoon. Satellite suggest one last
weak disturbance transiting the northern reaches of the forecast
area but this wave will bring little more than some clouds near
the Canadian border this evening before a general clearing trend
commences in earnest.

All model guidance is in good agreement in building and
maintaining this ridge through the weekend. Surface high pressure
off the coast currently will shift into southern Canada tonight
and then into the Canadian Prairie and Great Plains by
Sunday...promoting northerly and eventually northeasterly winds
across the forecast area. This flow will bring dry continental air
into the region and with subsidence aloft under the ridge after
tonight very little in the way of clouds...let alone
precipitation...will be apparent.

Plenty of sunshine into a dry near surface air mass will allow
efficient diurnal heating leading to increasing temperatures each
day...topping out by Sunday a good 10 to 12 degrees above normal.
/Fugazzi

Sunday night through Wednesday...Ridge of high pressure continues
to amplify while the axis of the ridge migrates east from
Northwest Montana. The ridge axis is well to the east over Eastern
Montana Monday and the southerly/southwesterly flow to the east of
the axis will allow for forecast temperatures to likely mirror
those expected on Sunday. Monday afternoon through Tuesday models
suggest a few weak disturbances with limited moisture and
instability will run up the west side of the ridge and produce
some convection. A robust 0-6km southwest to northeast wind of 25
mph along with fairly dry lower levels of the atmosphere favor
virga more than rain which allows for fairly low pops and coverage
for showers Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Tuesday night but
primarily Wednesday a large occluded frontal zone that has a well
maintained south to north orientation and tap into subtropical
moisture moves through which allows for a substantial increase in
pops and wind and significant cooling apparent in the cooler
daytime highs forecast for Wednesday for the western half of the
forecast area while the eastern portion may remain steady or warm
a degree or two as the warmer southerly flow ahead of the incoming
frontal zone and onset of rain late in the day allows for it..
/Pelatti

Wednesday night through Friday: A broad upper-level trough will
translate from the Ern Pac into the Wrn US during this time-frame
delivering cooler temperatures and increasing threat for
precipitation. All model guidance is on board with the upcoming
changes however timing and precipitation amounts continues to
carry moderate uncertainty. There is strong agreement that the
leading cold front will cross the Cascades around Wednesday night
with a nice fetch of three quarters to an inch of precipitable
water. How fast this translates east is the question. A strong jet
digging down the backside of the trof will slow the trof down then
flow on the leading edge looks to eventually parallel the front or
become southerly. This favors a slowly trickling west to east
frontal passage with abundant moisture but weak ascent. Some
models are tracking smaller disturbance along the front which is
highly possible and would lead to increase precipitation amounts
perhaps near a quarter of an inch but whether this occurs over the
Wrn Columbia Basin or in the Idaho Panhandle cannot be determined
at this time. Needless to say, a weather pattern change is in
store which will end the warm and dry conditions expected to start
the week. Temperatures will generally remain mild for overnight
lows with abundant cloud cover in the region. High temperatures
will generally remain steady and near seasonal readings (upper
60`s to mid 70`s) as 850mb temperatures range between 10-13
Celsius. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure will promote dry and VFR conditions at
TAF sites, with light diurnal winds. Some patchy fog is forecast
for the sheltered mountain valleys over NE WA and north ID late
overnight and Saturday morning (09-18Z). At this time it is
expected to remain away from TAF sites. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  81  52  85  56  84 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  49  80  49  85  53  84 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        47  83  49  88  52  85 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       55  87  56  91  59  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       46  84  47  87  47  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      43  77  44  81  45  79 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        49  78  48  83  52  81 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     50  86  54  89  56  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      56  85  58  88  61  87 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak           49  85  50  89  54  87 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 200522
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1022 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will provide a generally clear...warm and
dry weekend for the Inland Northwest. The new work week will start
out with continued above normal temperatures but a weak cold front
will bring a chance of showers starting Tuesday. From mid-week
onward an approaching deep trough will increase the probability of
rain with cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...An upper level ridge is beginning to
build over the region this afternoon. Satellite suggest one last
weak disturbance transiting the northern reaches of the forecast
area but this wave will bring little more than some clouds near
the Canadian border this evening before a general clearing trend
commences in earnest.

All model guidance is in good agreement in building and
maintaining this ridge through the weekend. Surface high pressure
off the coast currently will shift into southern Canada tonight
and then into the Canadian Prairie and Great Plains by
Sunday...promoting northerly and eventually northeasterly winds
across the forecast area. This flow will bring dry continental air
into the region and with subsidence aloft under the ridge after
tonight very little in the way of clouds...let alone
precipitation...will be apparent.

Plenty of sunshine into a dry near surface air mass will allow
efficient diurnal heating leading to increasing temperatures each
day...topping out by Sunday a good 10 to 12 degrees above normal.
/Fugazzi

Sunday night through Wednesday...Ridge of high pressure continues
to amplify while the axis of the ridge migrates east from
Northwest Montana. The ridge axis is well to the east over Eastern
Montana Monday and the southerly/southwesterly flow to the east of
the axis will allow for forecast temperatures to likely mirror
those expected on Sunday. Monday afternoon through Tuesday models
suggest a few weak disturbances with limited moisture and
instability will run up the west side of the ridge and produce
some convection. A robust 0-6km southwest to northeast wind of 25
mph along with fairly dry lower levels of the atmosphere favor
virga more than rain which allows for fairly low pops and coverage
for showers Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Tuesday night but
primarily Wednesday a large occluded frontal zone that has a well
maintained south to north orientation and tap into subtropical
moisture moves through which allows for a substantial increase in
pops and wind and significant cooling apparent in the cooler
daytime highs forecast for Wednesday for the western half of the
forecast area while the eastern portion may remain steady or warm
a degree or two as the warmer southerly flow ahead of the incoming
frontal zone and onset of rain late in the day allows for it..
/Pelatti

Wednesday night through Friday: A broad upper-level trough will
translate from the Ern Pac into the Wrn US during this time-frame
delivering cooler temperatures and increasing threat for
precipitation. All model guidance is on board with the upcoming
changes however timing and precipitation amounts continues to
carry moderate uncertainty. There is strong agreement that the
leading cold front will cross the Cascades around Wednesday night
with a nice fetch of three quarters to an inch of precipitable
water. How fast this translates east is the question. A strong jet
digging down the backside of the trof will slow the trof down then
flow on the leading edge looks to eventually parallel the front or
become southerly. This favors a slowly trickling west to east
frontal passage with abundant moisture but weak ascent. Some
models are tracking smaller disturbance along the front which is
highly possible and would lead to increase precipitation amounts
perhaps near a quarter of an inch but whether this occurs over the
Wrn Columbia Basin or in the Idaho Panhandle cannot be determined
at this time. Needless to say, a weather pattern change is in
store which will end the warm and dry conditions expected to start
the week. Temperatures will generally remain mild for overnight
lows with abundant cloud cover in the region. High temperatures
will generally remain steady and near seasonal readings (upper
60`s to mid 70`s) as 850mb temperatures range between 10-13
Celsius. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure will promote dry and VFR conditions at
TAF sites, with light diurnal winds. Some patchy fog is forecast
for the sheltered mountain valleys over NE WA and north ID late
overnight and Saturday morning (09-18Z). At this time it is
expected to remain away from TAF sites. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  81  52  85  56  84 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  49  80  49  85  53  84 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        47  83  49  88  52  85 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       55  87  56  91  59  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       46  84  47  87  47  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      43  77  44  81  45  79 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        49  78  48  83  52  81 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     50  86  54  89  56  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      56  85  58  88  61  87 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak           49  85  50  89  54  87 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 200427 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
927 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CORRECTED TYPO IN THE SECOND TO LAST PARAGRAPH IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION.

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA
ON MONDAY FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
STRATOCUMULUS BLANKETED MUCH OF THE INTERIOR THIS EVENING WHILE
THERE WERE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ON THE COAST. THE
STRATOCUMULUS DECK...IF IT PERSISTS...WILL PROBABLY PREVENT FOG
FROM DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE CLOUD-FREE AREAS WHERE FOG IS MORE LIKELY.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION ON SUNDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME NLY AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ELY SATURDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
FALLING SURFACE PRESSURE OFFSHORE. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL BE WEAK. THUS...ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL WARMING
OVER THE INTERIOR ON SUNDAY WHILE THE COAST COOLS OFF SOME.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS.
THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON MON BUT THE OCCLUDED
FRONT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ONSHORE. IT APPEARED
THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE ON THE COAST. DAYTIME
TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

.LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION...
THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A PARTIAL BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER
SYSTEMS ON TUESDAY. THIS WAS DIFFERENT FROM PAST RUNS AND
COMPLETELY REMOVING PRECIPITATION DID NOT YET SEEM PRUDENT. POPS
WERE REMOVED FOR THE INTERIOR PUGET SOUND REGION BUT KEPT A CHANCE
OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST MAINLY W OF PUGET SOUND IN CASE THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES A BIT FASTER.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL SLOWLY UNFOLD MIDWEEK AS A LARGE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC SENDING A SERIES OF FRONTS INTO THE
AREA. THE PATTERN NOW LOOKS MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE MOIST WLY
FLOW PATTERN THAT WAS SHOWN BY RUNS A COUPLE DAYS AGO.
NEVERTHELESS...THE UPPER LOW WILL SEND WAVES INTO WRN WA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. TIMING THESE WILL NOT BE REALLY POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SO POPS ARE HIGHER MID WEEK THEN
TAPER OFF TO CHANCE BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY JUST DUE TO INHERENT
UNCERTAINTY OUT TO DAY 6/7. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL INCREASE AS A TROUGH BUILDS NORTH ALONG THE COAST. AIR MASS
STABLE WITH AREAS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

4000-6000 FOOT CEILINGS NEVER QUITE SCATTERED OUT EARLIER TODAY AND
ARE CURRENTLY FILLING BACK IN ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE AREA. THESE
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING...PERHAPS LOWERING
A BIT OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD LIMIT FOG AND VERY LOW CLOUDS FROM
FORMING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS WITH MORE CLEARING...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH SOUND...COULD STILL SEE FOG OR VERY LOW
CLOUDS SATURDAY MORNING. ALL CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BURN OFF LATER
SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE LOW LEVELS DRY.

KSEA...A 3000-4000 FOOT CEILING SHOULD PREVAIL...PERHAPS LOWERING A
BIT OVERNIGHT...THEN BURNING OFF LATE SATURDAY MORNING. IT NOW LOOKS
LESS LIKELY THAT VERY LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
ALTHOUGH THIS IS STILL POSSIBLE IF THERE IS SOME CLEARING. NORTHERLY
WIND 4-8 KNOTS. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
AND PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH BUILDS NORTH ALONG THE
COAST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EAST WINDS ARE LIKELY FOR THE WESTERN
STRAIGHT AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS ZONE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING.

WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST
SHIFTS INLAND. A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY. A STRONGER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TO PARTS OF THE INLAND WATERS.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 200427 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
927 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CORRECTED TYPO IN THE SECOND TO LAST PARAGRAPH IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION.

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA
ON MONDAY FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
STRATOCUMULUS BLANKETED MUCH OF THE INTERIOR THIS EVENING WHILE
THERE WERE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ON THE COAST. THE
STRATOCUMULUS DECK...IF IT PERSISTS...WILL PROBABLY PREVENT FOG
FROM DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE CLOUD-FREE AREAS WHERE FOG IS MORE LIKELY.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION ON SUNDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME NLY AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ELY SATURDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
FALLING SURFACE PRESSURE OFFSHORE. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL BE WEAK. THUS...ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL WARMING
OVER THE INTERIOR ON SUNDAY WHILE THE COAST COOLS OFF SOME.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS.
THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON MON BUT THE OCCLUDED
FRONT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ONSHORE. IT APPEARED
THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE ON THE COAST. DAYTIME
TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

.LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION...
THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A PARTIAL BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER
SYSTEMS ON TUESDAY. THIS WAS DIFFERENT FROM PAST RUNS AND
COMPLETELY REMOVING PRECIPITATION DID NOT YET SEEM PRUDENT. POPS
WERE REMOVED FOR THE INTERIOR PUGET SOUND REGION BUT KEPT A CHANCE
OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST MAINLY W OF PUGET SOUND IN CASE THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES A BIT FASTER.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL SLOWLY UNFOLD MIDWEEK AS A LARGE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC SENDING A SERIES OF FRONTS INTO THE
AREA. THE PATTERN NOW LOOKS MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE MOIST WLY
FLOW PATTERN THAT WAS SHOWN BY RUNS A COUPLE DAYS AGO.
NEVERTHELESS...THE UPPER LOW WILL SEND WAVES INTO WRN WA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. TIMING THESE WILL NOT BE REALLY POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SO POPS ARE HIGHER MID WEEK THEN
TAPER OFF TO CHANCE BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY JUST DUE TO INHERENT
UNCERTAINTY OUT TO DAY 6/7. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL INCREASE AS A TROUGH BUILDS NORTH ALONG THE COAST. AIR MASS
STABLE WITH AREAS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

4000-6000 FOOT CEILINGS NEVER QUITE SCATTERED OUT EARLIER TODAY AND
ARE CURRENTLY FILLING BACK IN ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE AREA. THESE
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING...PERHAPS LOWERING
A BIT OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD LIMIT FOG AND VERY LOW CLOUDS FROM
FORMING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS WITH MORE CLEARING...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH SOUND...COULD STILL SEE FOG OR VERY LOW
CLOUDS SATURDAY MORNING. ALL CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BURN OFF LATER
SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE LOW LEVELS DRY.

KSEA...A 3000-4000 FOOT CEILING SHOULD PREVAIL...PERHAPS LOWERING A
BIT OVERNIGHT...THEN BURNING OFF LATE SATURDAY MORNING. IT NOW LOOKS
LESS LIKELY THAT VERY LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
ALTHOUGH THIS IS STILL POSSIBLE IF THERE IS SOME CLEARING. NORTHERLY
WIND 4-8 KNOTS. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
AND PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH BUILDS NORTH ALONG THE
COAST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EAST WINDS ARE LIKELY FOR THE WESTERN
STRAIGHT AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS ZONE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING.

WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST
SHIFTS INLAND. A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY. A STRONGER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TO PARTS OF THE INLAND WATERS.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KSEW 200423
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
923 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA
ON MONDAY FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
STRATOCUMULUS BLANKETED MUCH OF THE INTERIOR THIS EVENING WHILE
THERE WERE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ON THE COAST. THE
STRATOCUMULUS DECK...IF IT PERSISTS...WILL PROBABLY PREVENT FOG
FROM DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE CLOUD-FREE AREAS WHERE FOG IS MORE LIKELY.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION ON SUNDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME NLY AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ELY SATURDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
FALLING SURFACE PRESSURE OFFSHORE. ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL BE WEAK. THUS...ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL
WARMING OVER THE INTERIOR ON SUNDAY WHILE THE COAST COOLS OFF
SOME.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS.
THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON MON BUT THE OCCLUDED
FRONT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ONSHORE. IT APPEARED
THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE ON THE COAST. DAYTIME
TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

.LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION...
THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A PARTIAL BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER
SYSTEMS ON TUESDAY. THIS WAS DIFFERENT FROM PAST RUNS AND
COMPLETELY REMOVING PRECIPITATION DID NOT YET SEEM PRUDENT. POPS
WERE REMOVED FOR THE INTERIOR PUGET SOUND REGION BUT KEPT A CHANCE
OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST MAINLY W OF PUGET SOUND IN CASE THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES A BIT FASTER.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL SLOWLY UNFOLD MIDWEEK AS A LARGE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC SENDING A SERIES OF FRONTS INTO THE
AREA. THE PATTERN NOW LOOKS MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE MOIST WLY
FLOW PATTERN THAT WAS SHOWN BY RUNS A COUPLE DAYS AGO.
NEVERTHELESS...THE UPPER LOW WILL SEND WAVES INTO WRN WA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. TIMING THESE WILL NOT BE REALLY POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SO POPS ARE HIGHER MID WEEK THEN
TAPER OFF TO CHANCE BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY JUST DUE TO INHERENT
UNCERTAINTY OUT TO DAY 6/7. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL INCREASE AS A TROUGH BUILDS NORTH ALONG THE COAST. AIR MASS
STABLE WITH AREAS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

4000-6000 FOOT CEILINGS NEVER QUITE SCATTERED OUT EARLIER TODAY AND
ARE CURRENTLY FILLING BACK IN ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE AREA. THESE
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING...PERHAPS LOWERING
A BIT OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD LIMIT FOG AND VERY LOW CLOUDS FROM
FORMING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS WITH MORE CLEARING...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH SOUND...COULD STILL SEE FOG OR VERY LOW
CLOUDS SATURDAY MORNING. ALL CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BURN OFF LATER
SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND THE LOW LEVELS DRY.

KSEA...A 3000-4000 FOOT CEILING SHOULD PREVAIL...PERHAPS LOWERING A
BIT OVERNIGHT...THEN BURNING OFF LATE SATURDAY MORNING. IT NOW LOOKS
LESS LIKELY THAT VERY LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
ALTHOUGH THIS IS STILL POSSIBLE IF THERE IS SOME CLEARING. NORTHERLY
WIND 4-8 KNOTS. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
AND PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH BUILDS NORTH ALONG THE
COAST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EAST WINDS ARE LIKELY FOR THE WESTERN
STRAIGHT AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS ZONE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING.

WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST
SHIFTS INLAND. A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY. A STRONGER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TO PARTS OF THE INLAND WATERS.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KPQR 200326 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
825 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.  THERMAL LOW
PRESSURE OVER SW OREGON COAST WILL BUILD NORTH ALONG THE PAC NW COAST
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING WARM OFFSHORE WINDS. THAT
THERMAL WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING
COOLER ONSHORE FLOW. STILL LOOKS LIKE FALL NEXT WEEK WITH CLOUDS AND
COOL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH RAIN BY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH THAT IS NOW
OVER NW CALIFORNIA AND THE FAR SOUTH OREGON COAST WILL BUILD FURTHER
NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARM OFFSHORE FLOW TO
THE REGION.  UNLIKE THE EAST WIND EVENT OF LAST WEEK...THIS EVENT
DOES NOT HAVE THE THERMAL FORCING ALOFT. AS A RESULT...THE WINDS WILL
BE MUCH WEAKER AND MORE GAP ORIENTED. SO STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN
THE WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND OTHER LARGE GAPS IN THE CASCADES
AND COAST RANGES.

WILL SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY...WITH
LOWER 90S POSSIBLE IN WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND FEW SPOTS ELSEWHERE.
EUGENE WILL LIKELY ADD TO THEIR RECORD 35 DAYS OF 90F OR HIGHER
IN 2014.

EAST WINDS SATURDAY AND MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
WILDFIRE GROWTH...BUT NOT LIKELY EXPLOSIVE GROWTH.  AS A RESULT...AT
LEAST MODEST AMOUNTS OF SMOKE SHOULD SPREAD BACK INTO THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A TEMPERATURE INVERSION DEVELOPING AROUND 850-900 MB THIS
WEEKEND RESULTING IN RELATIVELY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
CASCADES AND PARTS OF THE COAST RANGE. THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION
SHOULD BREAK IN THE AFTERNOONS TO ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO MIX.

AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTHWARD TO OFF WASHINGTON LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...COOLER MARINE AIR SHOULD SPREAD INTO COASTAL
LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY SUNDAY...THEN
ACROSS REST OF REGION SUNDAY EVENING. THE THREAT FOR PATCHY FOG/LOW
STRATUS OVER THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S...WHILE THE REST OF THE VALLEY SEES HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.  AN APPROACHING LEVEL TROUGH WILL BREAK DOWN THE UPPER
RIDGE THROUGH MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AS A WEAK FRONTAL BAND
CLIPS THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN. WILL SEE A STRONGER MARINE PUSH
THROUGH THE COAST RANGE AND INTO THE INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT. /27/29

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A COOL
AND CLOUDY START TO THE FIRST OFFICIAL WEEK OF FALL. AFTER A COOL
TRANSITION DAY TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE NEXT STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT TO THE REGION STARTING LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A COUPLE OF WET DISTURBANCES WILL WRAP AROUND
THE MAIN UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY...BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT INLAND BY NEXT
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SAT
OVER NW OREGON AS THE FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE. SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z...BUT IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT IFR WOULD AFFECT EITHER KAST OR KONP FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z SUN.
&&

.MARINE...N WINDS WILL PICK UP TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS N UP THE COAST.
SMALL CRAFT WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND SAT MORNING...LESSER CHANCE TO SEE SMALL CRAFT WINDS
FURTHER N. SAT NIGHT A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WILL MOVE UP OFFSHORE...
TURNING WINDS TO THE S. GUSTS LIKELY TO APPROACH 20 KT SUN.

A WESTERLY SWELL ARRIVING TONIGHT EXPECTED TO INCREASE SEAS TO 8 TO
9 FT SAT...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL ARRIVE MID WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT OR
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO OVER 10 FT.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON TO
     4 PM PDT SATURDAY.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 200326 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
825 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.  THERMAL LOW
PRESSURE OVER SW OREGON COAST WILL BUILD NORTH ALONG THE PAC NW COAST
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING WARM OFFSHORE WINDS. THAT
THERMAL WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING
COOLER ONSHORE FLOW. STILL LOOKS LIKE FALL NEXT WEEK WITH CLOUDS AND
COOL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH RAIN BY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH THAT IS NOW
OVER NW CALIFORNIA AND THE FAR SOUTH OREGON COAST WILL BUILD FURTHER
NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARM OFFSHORE FLOW TO
THE REGION.  UNLIKE THE EAST WIND EVENT OF LAST WEEK...THIS EVENT
DOES NOT HAVE THE THERMAL FORCING ALOFT. AS A RESULT...THE WINDS WILL
BE MUCH WEAKER AND MORE GAP ORIENTED. SO STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN
THE WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND OTHER LARGE GAPS IN THE CASCADES
AND COAST RANGES.

WILL SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY...WITH
LOWER 90S POSSIBLE IN WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND FEW SPOTS ELSEWHERE.
EUGENE WILL LIKELY ADD TO THEIR RECORD 35 DAYS OF 90F OR HIGHER
IN 2014.

EAST WINDS SATURDAY AND MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
WILDFIRE GROWTH...BUT NOT LIKELY EXPLOSIVE GROWTH.  AS A RESULT...AT
LEAST MODEST AMOUNTS OF SMOKE SHOULD SPREAD BACK INTO THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A TEMPERATURE INVERSION DEVELOPING AROUND 850-900 MB THIS
WEEKEND RESULTING IN RELATIVELY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
CASCADES AND PARTS OF THE COAST RANGE. THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION
SHOULD BREAK IN THE AFTERNOONS TO ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO MIX.

AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTHWARD TO OFF WASHINGTON LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...COOLER MARINE AIR SHOULD SPREAD INTO COASTAL
LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY SUNDAY...THEN
ACROSS REST OF REGION SUNDAY EVENING. THE THREAT FOR PATCHY FOG/LOW
STRATUS OVER THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S...WHILE THE REST OF THE VALLEY SEES HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.  AN APPROACHING LEVEL TROUGH WILL BREAK DOWN THE UPPER
RIDGE THROUGH MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AS A WEAK FRONTAL BAND
CLIPS THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN. WILL SEE A STRONGER MARINE PUSH
THROUGH THE COAST RANGE AND INTO THE INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT. /27/29

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A COOL
AND CLOUDY START TO THE FIRST OFFICIAL WEEK OF FALL. AFTER A COOL
TRANSITION DAY TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE NEXT STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT TO THE REGION STARTING LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A COUPLE OF WET DISTURBANCES WILL WRAP AROUND
THE MAIN UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY...BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT INLAND BY NEXT
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SAT
OVER NW OREGON AS THE FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE. SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z...BUT IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT IFR WOULD AFFECT EITHER KAST OR KONP FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z SUN.
&&

.MARINE...N WINDS WILL PICK UP TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS N UP THE COAST.
SMALL CRAFT WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND SAT MORNING...LESSER CHANCE TO SEE SMALL CRAFT WINDS
FURTHER N. SAT NIGHT A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WILL MOVE UP OFFSHORE...
TURNING WINDS TO THE S. GUSTS LIKELY TO APPROACH 20 KT SUN.

A WESTERLY SWELL ARRIVING TONIGHT EXPECTED TO INCREASE SEAS TO 8 TO
9 FT SAT...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL ARRIVE MID WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT OR
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO OVER 10 FT.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON TO
     4 PM PDT SATURDAY.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 192322
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
422 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will provide a generally clear...warm and
dry weekend for the Inland Northwest. The new work week will start
out with continued above normal temperatures but a weak cold front
will bring a chance of showers starting Tuesday. From mid-week
onward an approaching deep trough will increase the probability of
rain with cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...An upper level ridge is beginning to
build over the region this afternoon. Satellite suggest one last
weak disturbance transiting the northern reaches of the forecast
area but this wave will bring little more than some clouds near
the Canadian border this evening before a general clearing trend
commences in earnest.

All model guidance is in good agreement in building and
maintaining this ridge through the weekend. Surface high pressure
off the coast currently will shift into southern Canada tonight
and then into the Canadian Prairie and Great Plains by
Sunday...promoting northerly and eventually northeasterly winds
across the forecast area. This flow will bring dry continental air
into the region and with subsidence aloft under the ridge after
tonight very little in the way of clouds...let alone
precipitation...will be apparent.

Plenty of sunshine into a dry near surface air mass will allow
efficient diurnal heating leading to increasing temperatures each
day...topping out by Sunday a good 10 to 12 degrees above normal.
/Fugazzi

Sunday night through Wednesday...Ridge of high pressure continues
to amplify while the axis of the ridge migrates east from
Northwest Montana. The ridge axis is well to the east over Eastern
Montana Monday and the southerly/southwesterly flow to the east of
the axis will allow for forecast temperatures to likely mirror
those expected on Sunday. Monday afternoon through Tuesday models
suggest a few weak disturbances with limited moisture and
instability will run up the west side of the ridge and produce
some convection. A robust 0-6km southwest to northeast wind of 25
mph along with fairly dry lower levels of the atmosphere favor
virga more than rain which allows for fairly low pops and coverage
for showers Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Tuesday night but
primarily Wednesday a large occluded frontal zone that has a well
maintained south to north orientation and tap into subtropical
moisture moves through which allows for a substantial increase in
pops and wind and significant cooling apparent in the cooler
daytime highs forecast for Wednesday for the western half of the
forecast area while the eastern portion may remain steady or warm
a degree or two as the warmer southerly flow ahead of the incoming
frontal zone and onset of rain late in the day allows for it..
/Pelatti

Wednesday night through Friday: A broad upper-level trough will
translate from the Ern Pac into the Wrn US during this time-frame
delivering cooler temperatures and increasing threat for
precipitation. All model guidance is on board with the upcoming
changes however timing and precipitation amounts continues to
carry moderate uncertainty. There is strong agreement that the
leading cold front will cross the Cascades around Wednesday night
with a nice fetch of three quarters to an inch of precipitable
water. How fast this translates east is the question. A strong jet
digging down the backside of the trof will slow the trof down then
flow on the leading edge looks to eventually parallel the front or
become southerly. This favors a slowly trickling west to east
frontal passage with abundant moisture but weak ascent. Some
models are tracking smaller disturbance along the front which is
highly possible and would lead to increase precipitation amounts
perhaps near a quarter of an inch but whether this occurs over the
Wrn Columbia Basin or in the Idaho Panhandle cannot be determined
at this time. Needless to say, a weather pattern change is in
store which will end the warm and dry conditions expected to start
the week. Temperatures will generally remain mild for overnight
lows with abundant cloud cover in the region. High temperatures
will generally remain steady and near seasonal readings (upper
60`s to mid 70`s) as 850mb temperatures range between 10-13
Celsius. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: High pressure will promote dry and VFR conditions at TAF
sites, with generally diurnal winds. Some patchy fog is forecast
for the sheltered mountain valleys, over NE WA and north ID, but
not at TAF sites, late overnight and Saturday morning. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  81  52  85  56  84 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  49  80  49  85  53  84 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        47  83  49  88  52  85 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       55  87  56  91  59  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       46  84  47  87  47  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      43  77  44  81  45  79 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        49  78  48  83  52  81 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     50  86  54  89  56  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      56  85  58  88  61  87 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak           49  85  50  89  54  87 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 192322
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
422 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will provide a generally clear...warm and
dry weekend for the Inland Northwest. The new work week will start
out with continued above normal temperatures but a weak cold front
will bring a chance of showers starting Tuesday. From mid-week
onward an approaching deep trough will increase the probability of
rain with cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...An upper level ridge is beginning to
build over the region this afternoon. Satellite suggest one last
weak disturbance transiting the northern reaches of the forecast
area but this wave will bring little more than some clouds near
the Canadian border this evening before a general clearing trend
commences in earnest.

All model guidance is in good agreement in building and
maintaining this ridge through the weekend. Surface high pressure
off the coast currently will shift into southern Canada tonight
and then into the Canadian Prairie and Great Plains by
Sunday...promoting northerly and eventually northeasterly winds
across the forecast area. This flow will bring dry continental air
into the region and with subsidence aloft under the ridge after
tonight very little in the way of clouds...let alone
precipitation...will be apparent.

Plenty of sunshine into a dry near surface air mass will allow
efficient diurnal heating leading to increasing temperatures each
day...topping out by Sunday a good 10 to 12 degrees above normal.
/Fugazzi

Sunday night through Wednesday...Ridge of high pressure continues
to amplify while the axis of the ridge migrates east from
Northwest Montana. The ridge axis is well to the east over Eastern
Montana Monday and the southerly/southwesterly flow to the east of
the axis will allow for forecast temperatures to likely mirror
those expected on Sunday. Monday afternoon through Tuesday models
suggest a few weak disturbances with limited moisture and
instability will run up the west side of the ridge and produce
some convection. A robust 0-6km southwest to northeast wind of 25
mph along with fairly dry lower levels of the atmosphere favor
virga more than rain which allows for fairly low pops and coverage
for showers Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Tuesday night but
primarily Wednesday a large occluded frontal zone that has a well
maintained south to north orientation and tap into subtropical
moisture moves through which allows for a substantial increase in
pops and wind and significant cooling apparent in the cooler
daytime highs forecast for Wednesday for the western half of the
forecast area while the eastern portion may remain steady or warm
a degree or two as the warmer southerly flow ahead of the incoming
frontal zone and onset of rain late in the day allows for it..
/Pelatti

Wednesday night through Friday: A broad upper-level trough will
translate from the Ern Pac into the Wrn US during this time-frame
delivering cooler temperatures and increasing threat for
precipitation. All model guidance is on board with the upcoming
changes however timing and precipitation amounts continues to
carry moderate uncertainty. There is strong agreement that the
leading cold front will cross the Cascades around Wednesday night
with a nice fetch of three quarters to an inch of precipitable
water. How fast this translates east is the question. A strong jet
digging down the backside of the trof will slow the trof down then
flow on the leading edge looks to eventually parallel the front or
become southerly. This favors a slowly trickling west to east
frontal passage with abundant moisture but weak ascent. Some
models are tracking smaller disturbance along the front which is
highly possible and would lead to increase precipitation amounts
perhaps near a quarter of an inch but whether this occurs over the
Wrn Columbia Basin or in the Idaho Panhandle cannot be determined
at this time. Needless to say, a weather pattern change is in
store which will end the warm and dry conditions expected to start
the week. Temperatures will generally remain mild for overnight
lows with abundant cloud cover in the region. High temperatures
will generally remain steady and near seasonal readings (upper
60`s to mid 70`s) as 850mb temperatures range between 10-13
Celsius. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: High pressure will promote dry and VFR conditions at TAF
sites, with generally diurnal winds. Some patchy fog is forecast
for the sheltered mountain valleys, over NE WA and north ID, but
not at TAF sites, late overnight and Saturday morning. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  81  52  85  56  84 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  49  80  49  85  53  84 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        47  83  49  88  52  85 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       55  87  56  91  59  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       46  84  47  87  47  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      43  77  44  81  45  79 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        49  78  48  83  52  81 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     50  86  54  89  56  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      56  85  58  88  61  87 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak           49  85  50  89  54  87 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 192322
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
422 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will provide a generally clear...warm and
dry weekend for the Inland Northwest. The new work week will start
out with continued above normal temperatures but a weak cold front
will bring a chance of showers starting Tuesday. From mid-week
onward an approaching deep trough will increase the probability of
rain with cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...An upper level ridge is beginning to
build over the region this afternoon. Satellite suggest one last
weak disturbance transiting the northern reaches of the forecast
area but this wave will bring little more than some clouds near
the Canadian border this evening before a general clearing trend
commences in earnest.

All model guidance is in good agreement in building and
maintaining this ridge through the weekend. Surface high pressure
off the coast currently will shift into southern Canada tonight
and then into the Canadian Prairie and Great Plains by
Sunday...promoting northerly and eventually northeasterly winds
across the forecast area. This flow will bring dry continental air
into the region and with subsidence aloft under the ridge after
tonight very little in the way of clouds...let alone
precipitation...will be apparent.

Plenty of sunshine into a dry near surface air mass will allow
efficient diurnal heating leading to increasing temperatures each
day...topping out by Sunday a good 10 to 12 degrees above normal.
/Fugazzi

Sunday night through Wednesday...Ridge of high pressure continues
to amplify while the axis of the ridge migrates east from
Northwest Montana. The ridge axis is well to the east over Eastern
Montana Monday and the southerly/southwesterly flow to the east of
the axis will allow for forecast temperatures to likely mirror
those expected on Sunday. Monday afternoon through Tuesday models
suggest a few weak disturbances with limited moisture and
instability will run up the west side of the ridge and produce
some convection. A robust 0-6km southwest to northeast wind of 25
mph along with fairly dry lower levels of the atmosphere favor
virga more than rain which allows for fairly low pops and coverage
for showers Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Tuesday night but
primarily Wednesday a large occluded frontal zone that has a well
maintained south to north orientation and tap into subtropical
moisture moves through which allows for a substantial increase in
pops and wind and significant cooling apparent in the cooler
daytime highs forecast for Wednesday for the western half of the
forecast area while the eastern portion may remain steady or warm
a degree or two as the warmer southerly flow ahead of the incoming
frontal zone and onset of rain late in the day allows for it..
/Pelatti

Wednesday night through Friday: A broad upper-level trough will
translate from the Ern Pac into the Wrn US during this time-frame
delivering cooler temperatures and increasing threat for
precipitation. All model guidance is on board with the upcoming
changes however timing and precipitation amounts continues to
carry moderate uncertainty. There is strong agreement that the
leading cold front will cross the Cascades around Wednesday night
with a nice fetch of three quarters to an inch of precipitable
water. How fast this translates east is the question. A strong jet
digging down the backside of the trof will slow the trof down then
flow on the leading edge looks to eventually parallel the front or
become southerly. This favors a slowly trickling west to east
frontal passage with abundant moisture but weak ascent. Some
models are tracking smaller disturbance along the front which is
highly possible and would lead to increase precipitation amounts
perhaps near a quarter of an inch but whether this occurs over the
Wrn Columbia Basin or in the Idaho Panhandle cannot be determined
at this time. Needless to say, a weather pattern change is in
store which will end the warm and dry conditions expected to start
the week. Temperatures will generally remain mild for overnight
lows with abundant cloud cover in the region. High temperatures
will generally remain steady and near seasonal readings (upper
60`s to mid 70`s) as 850mb temperatures range between 10-13
Celsius. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: High pressure will promote dry and VFR conditions at TAF
sites, with generally diurnal winds. Some patchy fog is forecast
for the sheltered mountain valleys, over NE WA and north ID, but
not at TAF sites, late overnight and Saturday morning. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  81  52  85  56  84 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  49  80  49  85  53  84 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        47  83  49  88  52  85 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       55  87  56  91  59  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       46  84  47  87  47  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      43  77  44  81  45  79 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        49  78  48  83  52  81 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     50  86  54  89  56  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      56  85  58  88  61  87 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak           49  85  50  89  54  87 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 192322
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
422 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will provide a generally clear...warm and
dry weekend for the Inland Northwest. The new work week will start
out with continued above normal temperatures but a weak cold front
will bring a chance of showers starting Tuesday. From mid-week
onward an approaching deep trough will increase the probability of
rain with cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...An upper level ridge is beginning to
build over the region this afternoon. Satellite suggest one last
weak disturbance transiting the northern reaches of the forecast
area but this wave will bring little more than some clouds near
the Canadian border this evening before a general clearing trend
commences in earnest.

All model guidance is in good agreement in building and
maintaining this ridge through the weekend. Surface high pressure
off the coast currently will shift into southern Canada tonight
and then into the Canadian Prairie and Great Plains by
Sunday...promoting northerly and eventually northeasterly winds
across the forecast area. This flow will bring dry continental air
into the region and with subsidence aloft under the ridge after
tonight very little in the way of clouds...let alone
precipitation...will be apparent.

Plenty of sunshine into a dry near surface air mass will allow
efficient diurnal heating leading to increasing temperatures each
day...topping out by Sunday a good 10 to 12 degrees above normal.
/Fugazzi

Sunday night through Wednesday...Ridge of high pressure continues
to amplify while the axis of the ridge migrates east from
Northwest Montana. The ridge axis is well to the east over Eastern
Montana Monday and the southerly/southwesterly flow to the east of
the axis will allow for forecast temperatures to likely mirror
those expected on Sunday. Monday afternoon through Tuesday models
suggest a few weak disturbances with limited moisture and
instability will run up the west side of the ridge and produce
some convection. A robust 0-6km southwest to northeast wind of 25
mph along with fairly dry lower levels of the atmosphere favor
virga more than rain which allows for fairly low pops and coverage
for showers Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Tuesday night but
primarily Wednesday a large occluded frontal zone that has a well
maintained south to north orientation and tap into subtropical
moisture moves through which allows for a substantial increase in
pops and wind and significant cooling apparent in the cooler
daytime highs forecast for Wednesday for the western half of the
forecast area while the eastern portion may remain steady or warm
a degree or two as the warmer southerly flow ahead of the incoming
frontal zone and onset of rain late in the day allows for it..
/Pelatti

Wednesday night through Friday: A broad upper-level trough will
translate from the Ern Pac into the Wrn US during this time-frame
delivering cooler temperatures and increasing threat for
precipitation. All model guidance is on board with the upcoming
changes however timing and precipitation amounts continues to
carry moderate uncertainty. There is strong agreement that the
leading cold front will cross the Cascades around Wednesday night
with a nice fetch of three quarters to an inch of precipitable
water. How fast this translates east is the question. A strong jet
digging down the backside of the trof will slow the trof down then
flow on the leading edge looks to eventually parallel the front or
become southerly. This favors a slowly trickling west to east
frontal passage with abundant moisture but weak ascent. Some
models are tracking smaller disturbance along the front which is
highly possible and would lead to increase precipitation amounts
perhaps near a quarter of an inch but whether this occurs over the
Wrn Columbia Basin or in the Idaho Panhandle cannot be determined
at this time. Needless to say, a weather pattern change is in
store which will end the warm and dry conditions expected to start
the week. Temperatures will generally remain mild for overnight
lows with abundant cloud cover in the region. High temperatures
will generally remain steady and near seasonal readings (upper
60`s to mid 70`s) as 850mb temperatures range between 10-13
Celsius. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: High pressure will promote dry and VFR conditions at TAF
sites, with generally diurnal winds. Some patchy fog is forecast
for the sheltered mountain valleys, over NE WA and north ID, but
not at TAF sites, late overnight and Saturday morning. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  81  52  85  56  84 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  49  80  49  85  53  84 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        47  83  49  88  52  85 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       55  87  56  91  59  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       46  84  47  87  47  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      43  77  44  81  45  79 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        49  78  48  83  52  81 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     50  86  54  89  56  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      56  85  58  88  61  87 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak           49  85  50  89  54  87 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 192154
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT WED SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SUNNY SKIES WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AFTER
SOME AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. MARINE CLOUDS AND COOLER
AIR WILL REACH THE COAST ON SUNDAY BUT THE INTERIOR WILL REMAIN
SUNNY AND WARMER. A WEAKENING SYSTEM ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
BRING IN SOME CLOUDS...A FEW SHOWERS...AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A WETTER AND COOLER PATTERN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...LATEST RADAR LOOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS JUST A FEW
RESIDUAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE N INTERIOR N OF EVERETT. THE AIR MASS IS
BEGINNING TO STABILIZE SO SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END BY THIS
EVENING. VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS
SRN PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR BUT THE LOWER LEVELS ARE STILL RATHER
MOIST ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RAPIDLY BUILD
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE. MOS AND NAM TIME-HEIGHTS/BUFFER SOUNDS ARE SHOWING A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT SUPPRESSING ANY RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOWEST 1500-2000 FEET. THE GRADIENTS TURN
NORTHERLY LATER TONIGHT BUT THE FLOW WILL PROBABLY NOT STRONG ENOUGH
TO CLEAR OUT MOISTURE INITIALLY. HOWEVER...THERMALLY INDUCED LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM JUST OFF THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD CLEAR OUT REMAINING MOISTURE
AND GIVE SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES WELL INTO THE 70S BUT
PROBABLY WILL NOT HIT POTENTIAL HIGHS INLAND BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDY
START TO THE DAY. THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE NEAR THE COAST WHERE
SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY...JUST AHEAD OF THE MARINE
STRATUS SURGE APPROACHING FROM THE S. HOQUIAM AND FORKS COULD BOTH
REACH THE LOW 80S.

THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER INLAND ON SUNDAY BECOMING CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES. THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE NEAR
THE COAST IN THE MORNING WILL MIGRATE INLAND OVER THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS OF WRN WA. THIS MEANS LIGHT SURFACE FLOW BUT INCREASING SLY
850 MB FLOW WHICH SHOULD AID IN THE WARMING PROCESS. FORECAST HIGHS
WILL REMAIN A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE THE WARMEST NAM MOS GIVEN THE
OVERALL PATTERN. STRATUS WILL BE NOSING NWD ALONG THE COAST DURING
THE DAY BRINGING COOLER MARINE AIR TO COASTAL SPOTS. HIGHS THERE
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70. INLAND TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE MID
OR EVEN UPPER 80S IN PLACES...BUT COOLER NEAR THE WATER.

500 MB HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE FIRST IN
A SERIES OF FRONTS TRY TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. THE MAIN AFFECT WILL
BE TO INDUCE A MARINE PUSH WHICH WILL FLOOD STRATUS AND COOLER AIR
INLAND. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S
ASSUMING SOME SPOTS AROUND THE SW INTERIOR/FAR S SOUND GET SOME SUN
BREAKS. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL BE RATHER WEAK BUT MOST MODELS DO SHOW
SOME SPOTTY LIGHT QPF AROUND WRN WA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

.LONG TERM...THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A PARTIAL BREAK
BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS ON TUESDAY. THIS IS DIFFERENT FROM PAST RUNS
AND COMPLETELY REMOVING PRECIPITATION DOES NOT YET SEEM PRUDENT.
POPS WERE REMOVED FOR THE INTERIOR PUGET SOUND REGION BUT KEPT A
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST MAINLY W OF PUGET SOUND IN CASE THE
NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES A BIT FASTER.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL SLOWLY UNFOLD MIDWEEK AS A LARGE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC SENDING A SERIES OF FRONTS INTO THE
AREA. THE PATTERN NOW LOOKS MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE MOIST WLY
FLOW PATTERN THAT WAS SHOWN BY RUNS A COUPLE DAYS AGO.
NEVERTHELESS...THE UPPER LOW WILL SEND WAVES INTO WRN WA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. TIMING THESE IS NOT REALLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SO POPS ARE HIGHER MID WEEK THEN TAPER TO CHANCE
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY JUST DUE TO INHERENT UNCERTAINTY OUT TO DAY
6/7.  MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BECOME SW AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY GIVING INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE
LOW LEVELS. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE. AREAS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
DEVELOP BELOW A LOW LEVEL INVERSION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

RESIDUAL STRATUS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FOG
ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR ARE DECREASING RAPIDLY
FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO BECOME
LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON THEN NORTHERLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA.

INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM ABOUT 2500 TO 5000 FEET MSL
TONIGHT COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE WITH BUILDING HIGH PRES ALOFT OVER
THE PACIFIC NW WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION THAT WILL STRENGTHEN AND LOWER 09Z-18Z SATURDAY. THE
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE IN CONJUNCTION WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
CONCENTRATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW BOUNDARY
LAYER RESULTING IN THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND SOME FOG
AROUND 09Z THAT WILL LIKELY BURN OFF AROUND NOON SATURDAY. EXPECT
AREAS OF CIGS BELOW 005 SATURDAY MORNING IN THE INTERIOR WITH SOME
DENSE FOG IN AREAS WHERE THE STRATUS INTERSECTS THE GROUND. THIS IS
NOT AN UNCOMMON OCCURRENCE DURING THE EARLY FALL MONTHS AND IS SHOWN
WELL IN THE LATEST NAM12 SOLUTIONS. THE 12Z UW WRFGFS 4 KM
SOLUTION`S COLUMN INTEGRATED CLOUD WATER PRODUCT ALSO SHOWS THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY MORNING. COARSER LARGE SCALE MODELS WERE NOT
USED AS THEY TEND TO LOSE TRACK OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THESE
SITUATIONS.

SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR MIDDAY ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN GOOD VFR
CONDITIONS. ALBRECHT

KSEA...EXPECT GOOD VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 09Z. LOW STRATUS WITH CIGS
003-005 ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND AND TO THE NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL AROUND 09Z THEN SPREAD INTO THE TERMINAL AREA BEFORE 12Z AS
A  SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA AND TRAPPED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONDENSES WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING. THERE IS ABOUT A 50
PERCENT CHANCE THAT VISIBILITIES AT THE TERMINAL WILL DROP TO BELOW
1/2SM FG IF THE STRATUS BASES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. THE STRATUS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AROUND 20Z SAT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-7 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME N 6-8 KT AFTER 05Z.
ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA TONIGHT THEN STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
THE HIGH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EAST WINDS ARE LIKELY AT THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL ZONE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAKENING FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY INDUCE A
SOUTHERLY SURGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

A MUCH STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAY RESULT IN SOME GALE
FORCE WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.


&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML














000
FXUS66 KSEW 192154
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT WED SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SUNNY SKIES WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AFTER
SOME AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. MARINE CLOUDS AND COOLER
AIR WILL REACH THE COAST ON SUNDAY BUT THE INTERIOR WILL REMAIN
SUNNY AND WARMER. A WEAKENING SYSTEM ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
BRING IN SOME CLOUDS...A FEW SHOWERS...AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A WETTER AND COOLER PATTERN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...LATEST RADAR LOOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS JUST A FEW
RESIDUAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE N INTERIOR N OF EVERETT. THE AIR MASS IS
BEGINNING TO STABILIZE SO SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END BY THIS
EVENING. VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS
SRN PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR BUT THE LOWER LEVELS ARE STILL RATHER
MOIST ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RAPIDLY BUILD
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE. MOS AND NAM TIME-HEIGHTS/BUFFER SOUNDS ARE SHOWING A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT SUPPRESSING ANY RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOWEST 1500-2000 FEET. THE GRADIENTS TURN
NORTHERLY LATER TONIGHT BUT THE FLOW WILL PROBABLY NOT STRONG ENOUGH
TO CLEAR OUT MOISTURE INITIALLY. HOWEVER...THERMALLY INDUCED LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM JUST OFF THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD CLEAR OUT REMAINING MOISTURE
AND GIVE SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES WELL INTO THE 70S BUT
PROBABLY WILL NOT HIT POTENTIAL HIGHS INLAND BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDY
START TO THE DAY. THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE NEAR THE COAST WHERE
SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY...JUST AHEAD OF THE MARINE
STRATUS SURGE APPROACHING FROM THE S. HOQUIAM AND FORKS COULD BOTH
REACH THE LOW 80S.

THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER INLAND ON SUNDAY BECOMING CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES. THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE NEAR
THE COAST IN THE MORNING WILL MIGRATE INLAND OVER THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS OF WRN WA. THIS MEANS LIGHT SURFACE FLOW BUT INCREASING SLY
850 MB FLOW WHICH SHOULD AID IN THE WARMING PROCESS. FORECAST HIGHS
WILL REMAIN A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE THE WARMEST NAM MOS GIVEN THE
OVERALL PATTERN. STRATUS WILL BE NOSING NWD ALONG THE COAST DURING
THE DAY BRINGING COOLER MARINE AIR TO COASTAL SPOTS. HIGHS THERE
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70. INLAND TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE MID
OR EVEN UPPER 80S IN PLACES...BUT COOLER NEAR THE WATER.

500 MB HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE FIRST IN
A SERIES OF FRONTS TRY TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. THE MAIN AFFECT WILL
BE TO INDUCE A MARINE PUSH WHICH WILL FLOOD STRATUS AND COOLER AIR
INLAND. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S
ASSUMING SOME SPOTS AROUND THE SW INTERIOR/FAR S SOUND GET SOME SUN
BREAKS. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL BE RATHER WEAK BUT MOST MODELS DO SHOW
SOME SPOTTY LIGHT QPF AROUND WRN WA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

.LONG TERM...THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A PARTIAL BREAK
BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS ON TUESDAY. THIS IS DIFFERENT FROM PAST RUNS
AND COMPLETELY REMOVING PRECIPITATION DOES NOT YET SEEM PRUDENT.
POPS WERE REMOVED FOR THE INTERIOR PUGET SOUND REGION BUT KEPT A
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST MAINLY W OF PUGET SOUND IN CASE THE
NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES A BIT FASTER.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL SLOWLY UNFOLD MIDWEEK AS A LARGE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE NE PACIFIC SENDING A SERIES OF FRONTS INTO THE
AREA. THE PATTERN NOW LOOKS MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE MOIST WLY
FLOW PATTERN THAT WAS SHOWN BY RUNS A COUPLE DAYS AGO.
NEVERTHELESS...THE UPPER LOW WILL SEND WAVES INTO WRN WA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. TIMING THESE IS NOT REALLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SO POPS ARE HIGHER MID WEEK THEN TAPER TO CHANCE
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY JUST DUE TO INHERENT UNCERTAINTY OUT TO DAY
6/7.  MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BECOME SW AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY GIVING INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE
LOW LEVELS. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE. AREAS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
DEVELOP BELOW A LOW LEVEL INVERSION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

RESIDUAL STRATUS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FOG
ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR ARE DECREASING RAPIDLY
FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO BECOME
LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON THEN NORTHERLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA.

INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM ABOUT 2500 TO 5000 FEET MSL
TONIGHT COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE WITH BUILDING HIGH PRES ALOFT OVER
THE PACIFIC NW WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION THAT WILL STRENGTHEN AND LOWER 09Z-18Z SATURDAY. THE
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE IN CONJUNCTION WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
CONCENTRATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW BOUNDARY
LAYER RESULTING IN THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND SOME FOG
AROUND 09Z THAT WILL LIKELY BURN OFF AROUND NOON SATURDAY. EXPECT
AREAS OF CIGS BELOW 005 SATURDAY MORNING IN THE INTERIOR WITH SOME
DENSE FOG IN AREAS WHERE THE STRATUS INTERSECTS THE GROUND. THIS IS
NOT AN UNCOMMON OCCURRENCE DURING THE EARLY FALL MONTHS AND IS SHOWN
WELL IN THE LATEST NAM12 SOLUTIONS. THE 12Z UW WRFGFS 4 KM
SOLUTION`S COLUMN INTEGRATED CLOUD WATER PRODUCT ALSO SHOWS THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY MORNING. COARSER LARGE SCALE MODELS WERE NOT
USED AS THEY TEND TO LOSE TRACK OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THESE
SITUATIONS.

SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR MIDDAY ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN GOOD VFR
CONDITIONS. ALBRECHT

KSEA...EXPECT GOOD VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 09Z. LOW STRATUS WITH CIGS
003-005 ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND AND TO THE NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL AROUND 09Z THEN SPREAD INTO THE TERMINAL AREA BEFORE 12Z AS
A  SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA AND TRAPPED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONDENSES WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING. THERE IS ABOUT A 50
PERCENT CHANCE THAT VISIBILITIES AT THE TERMINAL WILL DROP TO BELOW
1/2SM FG IF THE STRATUS BASES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. THE STRATUS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AROUND 20Z SAT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-7 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME N 6-8 KT AFTER 05Z.
ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA TONIGHT THEN STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
THE HIGH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EAST WINDS ARE LIKELY AT THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL ZONE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAKENING FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY INDUCE A
SOUTHERLY SURGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

A MUCH STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAY RESULT IN SOME GALE
FORCE WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.


&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML













000
FXUS66 KPQR 192136 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING INTO THE REGION BRINGING
MORE SETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS SW
WASHINGTON AND THE EXTREME NW OREGON COAST WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY OCCUR AS A DYING FRONT MOVES INTO WASHINGTON LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THEN EXPECT A DRY AND WARM WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS.
COOLER AND WET UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK FRONT CAN BE SEEN IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DRAPED ALONG THE SW WASHINGTON AND FAR NW
OREGON COAST/COAST RANGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ARE NOW SHOWING A LOW OVERCAST CLOUD DECK AT ASTORIA...WITH A TRACE
TO 0.01 INCHES OF PRECIP BEING REPORTED FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE
WASHINGTON COASTLINE. THE FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST AND COAST
RANGE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING BY THIS EVENING.
THIS MORNINGS CLOUDS DISSIPATED QUICKLY TODAY...AND THE AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL. WILL LIKELY SEE INLAND HIGHS TOP OUT NEAR 80
DEGREES TODAY...WARMER IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH IS ALREADY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTH OREGON COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS. AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH TRAVELS NORTH ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT...EXPECT OFFSHORE FLOW
TO DEVELOP. THIS MEANS WIDESPREAD WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY FOR SATURDAY...FOR ONE LAST SUMMERTIME
HURRAH. EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST AND PERHAPS
THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY ON SATURDAY. EUGENE WILL STAND ONE
MORE CHANCE TO ADD TO THEIR RECORD 35 DAYS OF 90F OR HIGHER IN 2014
ON SATURDAY.

EAST WINDS SATURDAY AND MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
WILDFIRE GROWTH...BUT NOT LIKELY EXPLOSIVE GROWTH.  AS A RESULT...AT
LEAST MODEST AMOUNTS OF SMOKE SHOULD SPREAD BACK INTO THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A TEMPERATURE INVERSION DEVELOPING AROUND 850-900 MB THIS
WEEKEND RESULTING IN RELATIVELY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
CASCADES AND PARTS OF THE COAST RANGE. THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION
SHOULD BREAK IN THE AFTERNOONS TO ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO MIX.

AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTHWARD TO OFF WASHINGTON LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...COOLER MARINE AIR SHOULD SPREAD INTO COASTAL
LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY SUNDAY...THEN
ACROSS REST OF REGION SUNDAY EVENING. THE THREAT FOR PATCHY FOG/LOW
STRATUS OVER THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S...WHILE THE REST OF THE VALLEY SEES HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.  AN APPROACHING LEVEL TROUGH WILL BREAK DOWN THE UPPER
RIDGE THROUGH MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AS A WEAK FRONTAL BAND
CLIPS THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN. WILL LIKELY SEE A STRONGER MARINE PUSH
INTO THE COASTAL GAPS AND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. /27

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A COOL
AND CLOUDY START TO THE FIRST OFFICIAL WEEK OF FALL. AFTER A COOL
TRANSITION DAY TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE NEXT STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT TO THE REGION STARTING LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A COUPLE OF WET DISTURBANCES WILL WRAP AROUND
THE MAIN UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY...BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT INLAND BY NEXT
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER INLAND PARTS OF NW
OREGON THROUGH 18Z SAT. ALONG THE COAST VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING...BUT AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIKELY
TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z TONIGHT...AND LINGER THROUGH 16Z SAT
BEFORE GOING BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z SAT.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS FRI AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTH
AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING N UP THE
COAST TONIGHT AND SAT WILL LIKELY BRING SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO THE
CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE IN SAT MORNING.
FURTHER N WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO PEAK SAT BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT.
SAT NIGHT A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WILL MOVE UP OFFSHORE...TURNING
WINDS TO THE S. GUSTS LIKELY TO APPROACH 20 KT SUN.

A WESTERLY SWELL ARRIVING TONIGHT EXPECTED TO INCREASE SEAS TO 8 TO
9 FT SAT...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL ARRIVE MID WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT OR
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO OVER 10 FT.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 4 PM
     PDT SATURDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 192136 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING INTO THE REGION BRINGING
MORE SETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS SW
WASHINGTON AND THE EXTREME NW OREGON COAST WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY OCCUR AS A DYING FRONT MOVES INTO WASHINGTON LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THEN EXPECT A DRY AND WARM WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS.
COOLER AND WET UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK FRONT CAN BE SEEN IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DRAPED ALONG THE SW WASHINGTON AND FAR NW
OREGON COAST/COAST RANGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ARE NOW SHOWING A LOW OVERCAST CLOUD DECK AT ASTORIA...WITH A TRACE
TO 0.01 INCHES OF PRECIP BEING REPORTED FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE
WASHINGTON COASTLINE. THE FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST AND COAST
RANGE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING BY THIS EVENING.
THIS MORNINGS CLOUDS DISSIPATED QUICKLY TODAY...AND THE AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL. WILL LIKELY SEE INLAND HIGHS TOP OUT NEAR 80
DEGREES TODAY...WARMER IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH IS ALREADY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTH OREGON COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS. AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH TRAVELS NORTH ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT...EXPECT OFFSHORE FLOW
TO DEVELOP. THIS MEANS WIDESPREAD WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY FOR SATURDAY...FOR ONE LAST SUMMERTIME
HURRAH. EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST AND PERHAPS
THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY ON SATURDAY. EUGENE WILL STAND ONE
MORE CHANCE TO ADD TO THEIR RECORD 35 DAYS OF 90F OR HIGHER IN 2014
ON SATURDAY.

EAST WINDS SATURDAY AND MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
WILDFIRE GROWTH...BUT NOT LIKELY EXPLOSIVE GROWTH.  AS A RESULT...AT
LEAST MODEST AMOUNTS OF SMOKE SHOULD SPREAD BACK INTO THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A TEMPERATURE INVERSION DEVELOPING AROUND 850-900 MB THIS
WEEKEND RESULTING IN RELATIVELY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
CASCADES AND PARTS OF THE COAST RANGE. THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION
SHOULD BREAK IN THE AFTERNOONS TO ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO MIX.

AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTHWARD TO OFF WASHINGTON LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...COOLER MARINE AIR SHOULD SPREAD INTO COASTAL
LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY SUNDAY...THEN
ACROSS REST OF REGION SUNDAY EVENING. THE THREAT FOR PATCHY FOG/LOW
STRATUS OVER THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S...WHILE THE REST OF THE VALLEY SEES HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.  AN APPROACHING LEVEL TROUGH WILL BREAK DOWN THE UPPER
RIDGE THROUGH MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AS A WEAK FRONTAL BAND
CLIPS THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN. WILL LIKELY SEE A STRONGER MARINE PUSH
INTO THE COASTAL GAPS AND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. /27

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A COOL
AND CLOUDY START TO THE FIRST OFFICIAL WEEK OF FALL. AFTER A COOL
TRANSITION DAY TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE NEXT STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT TO THE REGION STARTING LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A COUPLE OF WET DISTURBANCES WILL WRAP AROUND
THE MAIN UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY...BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT INLAND BY NEXT
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER INLAND PARTS OF NW
OREGON THROUGH 18Z SAT. ALONG THE COAST VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING...BUT AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIKELY
TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z TONIGHT...AND LINGER THROUGH 16Z SAT
BEFORE GOING BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z SAT.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS FRI AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTH
AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING N UP THE
COAST TONIGHT AND SAT WILL LIKELY BRING SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO THE
CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE IN SAT MORNING.
FURTHER N WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO PEAK SAT BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT.
SAT NIGHT A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WILL MOVE UP OFFSHORE...TURNING
WINDS TO THE S. GUSTS LIKELY TO APPROACH 20 KT SUN.

A WESTERLY SWELL ARRIVING TONIGHT EXPECTED TO INCREASE SEAS TO 8 TO
9 FT SAT...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL ARRIVE MID WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT OR
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO OVER 10 FT.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 4 PM
     PDT SATURDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 192130
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING INTO THE REGION BRINGING
MORE SETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS SW
WASHINGTON AND THE EXTREME NW OREGON COAST WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY OCCUR AS A DYING FRONT MOVES INTO WASHINGTON LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THEN EXPECT A DRY AND WARM WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS.
COOLER AND WET UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK FRONT CAN BE SEEN IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DRAPED ALONG THE SW WASHINGTON AND FAR NW
OREGON COAST/COAST RANGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ARE NOW SHOWING A LOW OVERCAST CLOUD DECK AT ASTORIA...WITH A TRACE
TO 0.01 INCHES OF PRECIP BEING REPORTED FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE
WASHINGTON COASTLINE. THE FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST AND COAST
RANGE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING BY THIS EVENING.
THIS MORNINGS CLOUDS DISSIPATED QUICKLY TODAY...AND THE AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL. WILL LIKELY SEE INLAND HIGHS TOP OUT NEAR 80
DEGREES TODAY...WARMER IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH IS ALREADY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTH OREGON COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS. AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH TRAVELS NORTH ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT...EXPECT OFFSHORE FLOW
TO DEVELOP. THIS MEANS WIDESPREAD WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY FOR SATURDAY...FOR ONE LAST SUMMERTIME
HURRAH. EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST AND PERHAPS
THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY ON SATURDAY. EUGENE WILL STAND ONE
MORE CHANCE TO ADD TO THEIR RECORD 35 DAYS OF 90F OR HIGHER IN 2014
ON SATURDAY.

EAST WINDS SATURDAY AND MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
WILDFIRE GROWTH...BUT NOT LIKELY EXPLOSIVE GROWTH.  AS A RESULT...AT
LEAST MODEST AMOUNTS OF SMOKE SHOULD SPREAD BACK INTO THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A TEMPERATURE INVERSION DEVELOPING AROUND 850-900 MB THIS
WEEKEND RESULTING IN RELATIVELY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
CASCADES AND PARTS OF THE COAST RANGE. THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION
SHOULD BREAK IN THE AFTERNOONS TO ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO MIX.

AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTHWARD TO OFF WASHINGTON LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...COOLER MARINE AIR SHOULD SPREAD INTO COASTAL
LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY SUNDAY...THEN
ACROSS REST OF REGION SUNDAY EVENING. THE THREAT FOR PATCHY FOG/LOW
STRATUS OVER THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S...WHILE THE REST OF THE VALLEY SEES HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.  AN APPROACHING LEVEL TROUGH WILL BREAK DOWN THE UPPER
RIDGE THROUGH MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AS A WEAK FRONTAL BAND
CLIPS THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN. WILL LIKELY SEE A STRONGER MARINE PUSH
INTO THE COASTAL GAPS AND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. /27

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A COOL
AND CLOUDY START TO THE FIRST OFFICIAL WEEK OF FALL. AFTER A COOL
TRANSITION DAY TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE NEXT STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT TO THE REGION STARTING LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A COUPLE OF WET DISTURBANCES WILL WRAP AROUND
THE MAIN UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY...BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT INLAND BY NEXT
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER INLAND PARTS OF NW
OREGON THROUGH 18Z SAT. ALONG THE COAST VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING...BUT AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIKELY
TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z TONIGHT...AND LINGER THROUGH 16Z SAT
BEFORE GOING BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z SAT.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS FRI AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTH
AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING N UP THE
COAST TONIGHT AND SAT WILL LIKELY BRING SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO THE
CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE IN SAT MORNING.
FURTHER N WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO PEAK SAT BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT.
SAT NIGHT A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WILL MOVE UP OFFSHORE...TURNING
WINDS TO THE S. GUSTS LIKELY TO APPROACH 20 KT SUN.

A WESTERLY SWELL ARRIVING TONIGHT EXPECTED TO INCREASE SEAS TO 8 TO
9 FT SAT...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL ARRIVE MID WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT OR
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO OVER 10 FT.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     5 AM PDT SATURDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 192102
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
202 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will provide a generally clear...warm and
dry weekend for the Inland Northwest. The new work week will start
out with continued above normal temperatures but a weak cold front
will bring a chance of showers starting Tuesday. From mid-week
onward an approaching deep trough will increase the probability of
rain with cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...An upper level ridge is beginning to
build over the region this afternoon. Satellite suggest one last
weak disturbance transiting the northern reaches of the forecast
area but this wave will bring little more than some clouds near
the Canadian border this evening before a general clearing trend
commences in earnest.

All model guidance is in good agreement in building and
maintaining this ridge through the weekend. Surface high pressure
off the coast currently will shift into southern Canada tonight
and then into the Canadian Prairie and Great Plains by
Sunday...promoting northerly and eventually northeasterly winds
across the forecast area. This flow will bring dry continental air
into the region and with subsidence aloft under the ridge after
tonight very little in the way of clouds...let alone
precipitation...will be apparent.

Plenty of sunshine into a dry near surface air mass will allow
efficient diurnal heating leading to increasing temperatures each
day...topping out by Sunday a good 10 to 12 degrees above normal.
/Fugazzi

Sunday night through Wednesday...Ridge of high pressure continues
to amplify while the axis of the ridge migrates east from
Northwest Montana. The ridge axis is well to the east over Eastern
Montana Monday and the southerly/southwesterly flow to the east of
the axis will allowsfor forecast temperatures to likely mirror
those expected on Sunday. Monday afternoon through Tuesday models
suggest a few weak disturbances with limited moisture and
instability will run up the west side of the ridge and produce
some convection. A robust 0-6km southwest to northeast wind of 25
mph along with fairly dry lower levels of the atmosphere favor
virga more than rain which allows for fairly low pops and coverage
for showers Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Tuesday night but
primarily Wednesday a large occluded frontal zone that has a well
maintained south to north orientation and tap into subtropical
moisture moves through which allows for a substantial increase in
pops and wind and significant cooling apparent in the cooler
daytime highs forecast for Wednesday for the western half of the
forecast area while the eastern portion may remain steady or warm
a degree or two as the warmer southerly flow ahead of the incoming
frontal zone and onset of rain late in the day allows for it..
/Pelatti

Wednesday night through Friday: A broad upper-level trough will
translate from the Ern Pac into the Wrn US during this time-frame
delivering cooler temperatures and increasing threat for
precipitation. All model guidance is on board with the upcoming
changes however timing and precipitation amounts continues to
carry moderate uncertainty. There is strong agreement that the
leading cold front will cross the Cascades around Wednesday night
with a nice fetch of three quarters to an inch of precipitable
water. How fast this translates east is the question. A strong jet
digging down the backside of the trof will slow the trof down then
flow on the leading edge looks to eventually parallel the front or
become southerly. This favors a slowly trickling west to east
frontal passage with abundant moisture but weak ascent. Some
models are tracking smaller disturbance along the front which is
highly possible and would lead to increase precipitation amounts
perhaps near a quarter of an inch but whether this occurs over the
Wrn Columbia Basin or in the Idaho Panhandle cannot be determined
at this time. Needless to say, a weather pattern change is in
store which will end the warm and dry conditions expected to start
the week. Temperatures will generally remain mild for overnight
lows with abundant cloud cover in the region. High temperatures
will generally remain steady and near seasonal readings (upper
60`s to mid 70`s) as 850mb temperatures range between 10-13
Celsius. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROMOTE DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  81  52  85  56  84 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  49  80  49  85  53  84 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        47  83  49  88  52  85 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       55  87  56  91  59  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       46  84  47  87  47  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      43  77  44  81  45  79 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        49  78  48  83  52  81 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     50  86  54  89  56  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      56  85  58  88  61  87 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak           49  85  50  89  54  87 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 192102
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
202 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will provide a generally clear...warm and
dry weekend for the Inland Northwest. The new work week will start
out with continued above normal temperatures but a weak cold front
will bring a chance of showers starting Tuesday. From mid-week
onward an approaching deep trough will increase the probability of
rain with cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...An upper level ridge is beginning to
build over the region this afternoon. Satellite suggest one last
weak disturbance transiting the northern reaches of the forecast
area but this wave will bring little more than some clouds near
the Canadian border this evening before a general clearing trend
commences in earnest.

All model guidance is in good agreement in building and
maintaining this ridge through the weekend. Surface high pressure
off the coast currently will shift into southern Canada tonight
and then into the Canadian Prairie and Great Plains by
Sunday...promoting northerly and eventually northeasterly winds
across the forecast area. This flow will bring dry continental air
into the region and with subsidence aloft under the ridge after
tonight very little in the way of clouds...let alone
precipitation...will be apparent.

Plenty of sunshine into a dry near surface air mass will allow
efficient diurnal heating leading to increasing temperatures each
day...topping out by Sunday a good 10 to 12 degrees above normal.
/Fugazzi

Sunday night through Wednesday...Ridge of high pressure continues
to amplify while the axis of the ridge migrates east from
Northwest Montana. The ridge axis is well to the east over Eastern
Montana Monday and the southerly/southwesterly flow to the east of
the axis will allowsfor forecast temperatures to likely mirror
those expected on Sunday. Monday afternoon through Tuesday models
suggest a few weak disturbances with limited moisture and
instability will run up the west side of the ridge and produce
some convection. A robust 0-6km southwest to northeast wind of 25
mph along with fairly dry lower levels of the atmosphere favor
virga more than rain which allows for fairly low pops and coverage
for showers Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Tuesday night but
primarily Wednesday a large occluded frontal zone that has a well
maintained south to north orientation and tap into subtropical
moisture moves through which allows for a substantial increase in
pops and wind and significant cooling apparent in the cooler
daytime highs forecast for Wednesday for the western half of the
forecast area while the eastern portion may remain steady or warm
a degree or two as the warmer southerly flow ahead of the incoming
frontal zone and onset of rain late in the day allows for it..
/Pelatti

Wednesday night through Friday: A broad upper-level trough will
translate from the Ern Pac into the Wrn US during this time-frame
delivering cooler temperatures and increasing threat for
precipitation. All model guidance is on board with the upcoming
changes however timing and precipitation amounts continues to
carry moderate uncertainty. There is strong agreement that the
leading cold front will cross the Cascades around Wednesday night
with a nice fetch of three quarters to an inch of precipitable
water. How fast this translates east is the question. A strong jet
digging down the backside of the trof will slow the trof down then
flow on the leading edge looks to eventually parallel the front or
become southerly. This favors a slowly trickling west to east
frontal passage with abundant moisture but weak ascent. Some
models are tracking smaller disturbance along the front which is
highly possible and would lead to increase precipitation amounts
perhaps near a quarter of an inch but whether this occurs over the
Wrn Columbia Basin or in the Idaho Panhandle cannot be determined
at this time. Needless to say, a weather pattern change is in
store which will end the warm and dry conditions expected to start
the week. Temperatures will generally remain mild for overnight
lows with abundant cloud cover in the region. High temperatures
will generally remain steady and near seasonal readings (upper
60`s to mid 70`s) as 850mb temperatures range between 10-13
Celsius. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROMOTE DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        51  81  52  85  56  84 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  49  80  49  85  53  84 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        47  83  49  88  52  85 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       55  87  56  91  59  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       46  84  47  87  47  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      43  77  44  81  45  79 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        49  78  48  83  52  81 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     50  86  54  89  56  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      56  85  58  88  61  87 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak           49  85  50  89  54  87 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 191722
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1022 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL RETURN TODAY AND PROMOTE WARM
AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY SHOULD BE TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE BREAKDOWN OF THIS
RIDGE...AND A RETURN TO COOLER CONDITIONS...WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY FOR MOST COMMUNITIES SINCE THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY...THERE IS NO COMPELLING REASON TO MAKE ANY UPDATES
TO THE CURRENT FORECAST INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. OVERALL
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING TODAY. CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
SHOWERS APPARENT ON RADAR AND SATELLITE OVER THE WEST SIDE THIS
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THIS ALREADY WEAK SYSTEM SCOOTS
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TODAY....WITH A GHOST OF A CHANCE OFA
SHOWER ON THE HIGH TERRAIN NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN. OTHERWISE
DRY AND INCREASINGLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS
THAN YESTERDAY...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL AROUND NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. /FUGAZZI

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROMOTE DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        76  51  81  52  84  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
COEUR D`ALENE  75  49  80  49  84  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
PULLMAN        76  47  82  49  87  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
LEWISTON       82  55  87  56  89  59 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
COLVILLE       79  46  85  47  86  47 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
SANDPOINT      71  43  77  44  79  45 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
KELLOGG        71  49  78  48  81  52 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
MOSES LAKE     83  50  86  54  88  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
WENATCHEE      82  56  85  58  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
OMAK           81  49  85  50  87  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 191722
AFDOTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1022 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL RETURN TODAY AND PROMOTE WARM
AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY SHOULD BE TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE BREAKDOWN OF THIS
RIDGE...AND A RETURN TO COOLER CONDITIONS...WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY FOR MOST COMMUNITIES SINCE THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY...THERE IS NO COMPELLING REASON TO MAKE ANY UPDATES
TO THE CURRENT FORECAST INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. OVERALL
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING TODAY. CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
SHOWERS APPARENT ON RADAR AND SATELLITE OVER THE WEST SIDE THIS
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THIS ALREADY WEAK SYSTEM SCOOTS
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TODAY....WITH A GHOST OF A CHANCE OFA
SHOWER ON THE HIGH TERRAIN NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN. OTHERWISE
DRY AND INCREASINGLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS
THAN YESTERDAY...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL AROUND NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. /FUGAZZI

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROMOTE DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /MJF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        76  51  81  52  84  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
COEUR D`ALENE  75  49  80  49  84  53 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
PULLMAN        76  47  82  49  87  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
LEWISTON       82  55  87  56  89  59 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
COLVILLE       79  46  85  47  86  47 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
SANDPOINT      71  43  77  44  79  45 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
KELLOGG        71  49  78  48  81  52 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
MOSES LAKE     83  50  86  54  88  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
WENATCHEE      82  56  85  58  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
OMAK           81  49  85  50  87  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KPQR 191618
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
917 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING INTO THE REGION BRINGING
MORE SETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS SW
WASHINGTON AND THE EXTREME NW OREGON COAST WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY OCCUR AS A DYING FRONT MOVES INTO WASHINGTON TODAY. THEN EXPECT A
DRY AND WARM WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. COOLER UNSETTLED
WEATHER ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE IS GRADUALLY NUDGING IN
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. MORNING CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY DISSIPATING
AS SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH MAJORITY OF THE CLOUD
COVER OVER SW WASHINGTON AND THE FAR NW OREGON COAST AS A WEAK FRONT
CLIPS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT HAVE
MAINLY STAYED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE WEAK FRONT IS STILL
APPROACHING THE COAST SO ITS STILL POSSIBLE A FEW SPRINKLES/ LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD BE SQUEEZED OUT THROUGH NOON TODAY AS IT STALLS AND
DISSIPATES NEAR THE WASHINGTON COAST. OTHERWISE... HAVE WARMED UP
TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO SIGNIFICANT SUNBREAKS. WE WILL BE IN
A TRANSITION PERIOD FROM ONSHORE TO OFFSHORE FLOW STARTING TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /27

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY ON
SATURDAY. EUGENE WILL STAND A GOOD CHANCE TO ADD TO THEIR RECORD 35
DAYS OF 90F OR PLUS OR HIGHER IN 2014. AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD TO OFF WASHINGTON LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...COOLER MARINE
AIR SHOULD SPREAD INTO COASTAL LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY SUNDAY...THEN ACROSS REST OF REGION SUNDAY EVENING.

EAST WINDS SATURDAY AND MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
WILDFIRE GROWTH...BUT NOT LIKELY EXPLOSIVE GROWTH.  AS A RESULT...AT
LEAST MODEST AMOUNTS OF SMOKE SHOULD SPREAD BACK INTO THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A TEMPERATURE INVERSION DEVELOPING AROUND 850-900 MB THIS
WEEKEND RESULTING IN RELATIVELY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
CASCADES AND PARTS OF THE COAST RANGE. THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION
SHOULD BREAK IN THE AFTERNOONS TO ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO MIX.  /MH

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL GENERALLY TREND
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR OVER THE INLAND AREAS OF NORTHWEST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON VALLEYS THE EXCEPTION OF SOME FOG AND
LIFR STRATUS IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME IFR OR MVFR CIGS OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF LANE COUNTY WHICH MAY
OBSCURE THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 18Z THEN LIFT TO VFR BROKEN
CLOUDS BEFORE SCATTERING OUT AFT 21Z. SOME IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVER
IN THE CENTRAL COAST RANGE VALLEYS THROUGH 18Z. MVFR SHOULD
CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND S WASHINGTON COAST AS A WEAK
FRONT APPROACHES BUT THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS AS SEEN IN THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE
SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST 18Z-23Z WITH THE DYING FRONT. SCHNEIDER


KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH SOME SCT TO
BKN CLOUDS 4000-5000 FEET AT THE TERMINAL AND ON THE APPROACHES.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS MORNING IN THE NORTH AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS AND PUSHES NORTH. THE THERMAL LOW WILL EXTEND FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLIES
SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL AND STRATUS SURGE
WILL THEN MOVE NORTH ALONG THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 FT TODAY WITH A MIX OF A LONG
PERIOD SOUTH SWELL AND A SHORTER PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL. THERE IS
S BATTLE THIS MORNING FOR WHICH SWELL IS MORE DOMINANT BUT I THINK
THE NORTHWEST SWELL SHOULD DOMINATE BY THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST
SWELL OF AROUND 8 TO 9 FT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SEAS DROP BACK DOWN TO 5 OR 6 FT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

SEAS MAY BUILD ABOVE 10 FT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
PACIFIC BECOMES MORE ENERGETIC AS A STRONGER STORM APPROACHES...
POSSIBLY PRODUCING THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS WE HAVE SEEN IN
SOME TIME. PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     5 AM PDT SATURDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 191618
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
917 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING INTO THE REGION BRINGING
MORE SETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS SW
WASHINGTON AND THE EXTREME NW OREGON COAST WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY OCCUR AS A DYING FRONT MOVES INTO WASHINGTON TODAY. THEN EXPECT A
DRY AND WARM WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. COOLER UNSETTLED
WEATHER ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE IS GRADUALLY NUDGING IN
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. MORNING CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY DISSIPATING
AS SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH MAJORITY OF THE CLOUD
COVER OVER SW WASHINGTON AND THE FAR NW OREGON COAST AS A WEAK FRONT
CLIPS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT HAVE
MAINLY STAYED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE WEAK FRONT IS STILL
APPROACHING THE COAST SO ITS STILL POSSIBLE A FEW SPRINKLES/ LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD BE SQUEEZED OUT THROUGH NOON TODAY AS IT STALLS AND
DISSIPATES NEAR THE WASHINGTON COAST. OTHERWISE... HAVE WARMED UP
TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO SIGNIFICANT SUNBREAKS. WE WILL BE IN
A TRANSITION PERIOD FROM ONSHORE TO OFFSHORE FLOW STARTING TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /27

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY ON
SATURDAY. EUGENE WILL STAND A GOOD CHANCE TO ADD TO THEIR RECORD 35
DAYS OF 90F OR PLUS OR HIGHER IN 2014. AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD TO OFF WASHINGTON LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...COOLER MARINE
AIR SHOULD SPREAD INTO COASTAL LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY SUNDAY...THEN ACROSS REST OF REGION SUNDAY EVENING.

EAST WINDS SATURDAY AND MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
WILDFIRE GROWTH...BUT NOT LIKELY EXPLOSIVE GROWTH.  AS A RESULT...AT
LEAST MODEST AMOUNTS OF SMOKE SHOULD SPREAD BACK INTO THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A TEMPERATURE INVERSION DEVELOPING AROUND 850-900 MB THIS
WEEKEND RESULTING IN RELATIVELY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
CASCADES AND PARTS OF THE COAST RANGE. THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION
SHOULD BREAK IN THE AFTERNOONS TO ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO MIX.  /MH

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL GENERALLY TREND
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR OVER THE INLAND AREAS OF NORTHWEST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON VALLEYS THE EXCEPTION OF SOME FOG AND
LIFR STRATUS IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME IFR OR MVFR CIGS OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF LANE COUNTY WHICH MAY
OBSCURE THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 18Z THEN LIFT TO VFR BROKEN
CLOUDS BEFORE SCATTERING OUT AFT 21Z. SOME IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVER
IN THE CENTRAL COAST RANGE VALLEYS THROUGH 18Z. MVFR SHOULD
CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND S WASHINGTON COAST AS A WEAK
FRONT APPROACHES BUT THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS AS SEEN IN THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE
SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST 18Z-23Z WITH THE DYING FRONT. SCHNEIDER


KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH SOME SCT TO
BKN CLOUDS 4000-5000 FEET AT THE TERMINAL AND ON THE APPROACHES.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS MORNING IN THE NORTH AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS AND PUSHES NORTH. THE THERMAL LOW WILL EXTEND FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLIES
SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL AND STRATUS SURGE
WILL THEN MOVE NORTH ALONG THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 FT TODAY WITH A MIX OF A LONG
PERIOD SOUTH SWELL AND A SHORTER PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL. THERE IS
S BATTLE THIS MORNING FOR WHICH SWELL IS MORE DOMINANT BUT I THINK
THE NORTHWEST SWELL SHOULD DOMINATE BY THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST
SWELL OF AROUND 8 TO 9 FT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SEAS DROP BACK DOWN TO 5 OR 6 FT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

SEAS MAY BUILD ABOVE 10 FT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
PACIFIC BECOMES MORE ENERGETIC AS A STRONGER STORM APPROACHES...
POSSIBLY PRODUCING THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS WE HAVE SEEN IN
SOME TIME. PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     5 AM PDT SATURDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 191618
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
917 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING INTO THE REGION BRINGING
MORE SETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS SW
WASHINGTON AND THE EXTREME NW OREGON COAST WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY OCCUR AS A DYING FRONT MOVES INTO WASHINGTON TODAY. THEN EXPECT A
DRY AND WARM WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. COOLER UNSETTLED
WEATHER ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE IS GRADUALLY NUDGING IN
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. MORNING CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY DISSIPATING
AS SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH MAJORITY OF THE CLOUD
COVER OVER SW WASHINGTON AND THE FAR NW OREGON COAST AS A WEAK FRONT
CLIPS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT HAVE
MAINLY STAYED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE WEAK FRONT IS STILL
APPROACHING THE COAST SO ITS STILL POSSIBLE A FEW SPRINKLES/ LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD BE SQUEEZED OUT THROUGH NOON TODAY AS IT STALLS AND
DISSIPATES NEAR THE WASHINGTON COAST. OTHERWISE... HAVE WARMED UP
TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO SIGNIFICANT SUNBREAKS. WE WILL BE IN
A TRANSITION PERIOD FROM ONSHORE TO OFFSHORE FLOW STARTING TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /27

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY ON
SATURDAY. EUGENE WILL STAND A GOOD CHANCE TO ADD TO THEIR RECORD 35
DAYS OF 90F OR PLUS OR HIGHER IN 2014. AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD TO OFF WASHINGTON LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...COOLER MARINE
AIR SHOULD SPREAD INTO COASTAL LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY SUNDAY...THEN ACROSS REST OF REGION SUNDAY EVENING.

EAST WINDS SATURDAY AND MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
WILDFIRE GROWTH...BUT NOT LIKELY EXPLOSIVE GROWTH.  AS A RESULT...AT
LEAST MODEST AMOUNTS OF SMOKE SHOULD SPREAD BACK INTO THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A TEMPERATURE INVERSION DEVELOPING AROUND 850-900 MB THIS
WEEKEND RESULTING IN RELATIVELY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
CASCADES AND PARTS OF THE COAST RANGE. THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION
SHOULD BREAK IN THE AFTERNOONS TO ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO MIX.  /MH

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL GENERALLY TREND
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR OVER THE INLAND AREAS OF NORTHWEST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON VALLEYS THE EXCEPTION OF SOME FOG AND
LIFR STRATUS IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME IFR OR MVFR CIGS OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF LANE COUNTY WHICH MAY
OBSCURE THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 18Z THEN LIFT TO VFR BROKEN
CLOUDS BEFORE SCATTERING OUT AFT 21Z. SOME IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVER
IN THE CENTRAL COAST RANGE VALLEYS THROUGH 18Z. MVFR SHOULD
CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND S WASHINGTON COAST AS A WEAK
FRONT APPROACHES BUT THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS AS SEEN IN THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE
SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST 18Z-23Z WITH THE DYING FRONT. SCHNEIDER


KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH SOME SCT TO
BKN CLOUDS 4000-5000 FEET AT THE TERMINAL AND ON THE APPROACHES.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS MORNING IN THE NORTH AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS AND PUSHES NORTH. THE THERMAL LOW WILL EXTEND FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLIES
SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL AND STRATUS SURGE
WILL THEN MOVE NORTH ALONG THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 FT TODAY WITH A MIX OF A LONG
PERIOD SOUTH SWELL AND A SHORTER PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL. THERE IS
S BATTLE THIS MORNING FOR WHICH SWELL IS MORE DOMINANT BUT I THINK
THE NORTHWEST SWELL SHOULD DOMINATE BY THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST
SWELL OF AROUND 8 TO 9 FT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SEAS DROP BACK DOWN TO 5 OR 6 FT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

SEAS MAY BUILD ABOVE 10 FT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
PACIFIC BECOMES MORE ENERGETIC AS A STRONGER STORM APPROACHES...
POSSIBLY PRODUCING THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS WE HAVE SEEN IN
SOME TIME. PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     5 AM PDT SATURDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 191618
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
917 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING INTO THE REGION BRINGING
MORE SETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS SW
WASHINGTON AND THE EXTREME NW OREGON COAST WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY OCCUR AS A DYING FRONT MOVES INTO WASHINGTON TODAY. THEN EXPECT A
DRY AND WARM WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. COOLER UNSETTLED
WEATHER ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE IS GRADUALLY NUDGING IN
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. MORNING CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY DISSIPATING
AS SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH MAJORITY OF THE CLOUD
COVER OVER SW WASHINGTON AND THE FAR NW OREGON COAST AS A WEAK FRONT
CLIPS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT HAVE
MAINLY STAYED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE WEAK FRONT IS STILL
APPROACHING THE COAST SO ITS STILL POSSIBLE A FEW SPRINKLES/ LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD BE SQUEEZED OUT THROUGH NOON TODAY AS IT STALLS AND
DISSIPATES NEAR THE WASHINGTON COAST. OTHERWISE... HAVE WARMED UP
TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO SIGNIFICANT SUNBREAKS. WE WILL BE IN
A TRANSITION PERIOD FROM ONSHORE TO OFFSHORE FLOW STARTING TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /27

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY ON
SATURDAY. EUGENE WILL STAND A GOOD CHANCE TO ADD TO THEIR RECORD 35
DAYS OF 90F OR PLUS OR HIGHER IN 2014. AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD TO OFF WASHINGTON LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...COOLER MARINE
AIR SHOULD SPREAD INTO COASTAL LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY SUNDAY...THEN ACROSS REST OF REGION SUNDAY EVENING.

EAST WINDS SATURDAY AND MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
WILDFIRE GROWTH...BUT NOT LIKELY EXPLOSIVE GROWTH.  AS A RESULT...AT
LEAST MODEST AMOUNTS OF SMOKE SHOULD SPREAD BACK INTO THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A TEMPERATURE INVERSION DEVELOPING AROUND 850-900 MB THIS
WEEKEND RESULTING IN RELATIVELY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
CASCADES AND PARTS OF THE COAST RANGE. THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION
SHOULD BREAK IN THE AFTERNOONS TO ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO MIX.  /MH

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL GENERALLY TREND
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR OVER THE INLAND AREAS OF NORTHWEST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON VALLEYS THE EXCEPTION OF SOME FOG AND
LIFR STRATUS IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME IFR OR MVFR CIGS OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF LANE COUNTY WHICH MAY
OBSCURE THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 18Z THEN LIFT TO VFR BROKEN
CLOUDS BEFORE SCATTERING OUT AFT 21Z. SOME IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVER
IN THE CENTRAL COAST RANGE VALLEYS THROUGH 18Z. MVFR SHOULD
CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND S WASHINGTON COAST AS A WEAK
FRONT APPROACHES BUT THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS AS SEEN IN THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE
SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST 18Z-23Z WITH THE DYING FRONT. SCHNEIDER


KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH SOME SCT TO
BKN CLOUDS 4000-5000 FEET AT THE TERMINAL AND ON THE APPROACHES.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS MORNING IN THE NORTH AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS AND PUSHES NORTH. THE THERMAL LOW WILL EXTEND FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLIES
SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL AND STRATUS SURGE
WILL THEN MOVE NORTH ALONG THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 FT TODAY WITH A MIX OF A LONG
PERIOD SOUTH SWELL AND A SHORTER PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL. THERE IS
S BATTLE THIS MORNING FOR WHICH SWELL IS MORE DOMINANT BUT I THINK
THE NORTHWEST SWELL SHOULD DOMINATE BY THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST
SWELL OF AROUND 8 TO 9 FT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SEAS DROP BACK DOWN TO 5 OR 6 FT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

SEAS MAY BUILD ABOVE 10 FT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
PACIFIC BECOMES MORE ENERGETIC AS A STRONGER STORM APPROACHES...
POSSIBLY PRODUCING THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS WE HAVE SEEN IN
SOME TIME. PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     5 AM PDT SATURDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 191558
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT WED SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS. CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE STRONG RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES AND A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. A
WEAKENING FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS...A FEW
SHOWERS...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN A WETTER AND COOLER PATTERN ALL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN WLY FLOW IS
DISSIPATING ALONG THE N WA COAST THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOW NO
REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND NOT MUCH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. RADAR DATA DOES SHOW A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS FROM THE N
COAST EWD ACROSS THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND OVER THE N INTERIOR.
THESE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE AREA
INCLUDING THE PUGET SOUND REGION SHOULD BE DRY TODAY ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
WILL HANG IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW.
HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE COOL...AROUND 70 FOR THE SOUND AND LOW 70S
ACROSS THE SW INTERIOR.

THE 500 MB RIDGE RAPIDLY AMPLIFIES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT...THEN BECOMES
MORE STRONGLY OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE
FORMS JUST OFF THE COAST. DRYING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TONIGHT IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER...A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL TRAP
SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN A THIN LAYER BELOW 2 KT
ACCORDING TO NAM-BUFFER SOUNDINGS. ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF
RATHER QUICKLY BY MID-LATE MORNING. WITH THE PICK UP IN OFFSHORE
FLOW AND THE DRYING AIR MASS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A GOOD
4-10 DEGREES SATURDAY. THE COAST MAY SEE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH AHEAD OF THE
STRATUS SURGE.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO SHIFT FURTHER INLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THERMALLY INDUCED
TROUGH TO SHIFT INLAND OVER INTERIOR WRN WA. SUNDAY SHOULD THEREFORE
BE THE WARMEST DAY OVER INLAND AREAS. HIGHS IN THE MID 85S WILL
PROBABLY BE COMMON. THE NAM MOS SHOULD AGAIN DO BEST IN THIS
SCENARIO BUT THE GUIDANCE IS STILL LIKELY HANDICAPPED A BIT BY
CLIMATOLOGY. THE FORECAST IS ALREADY TRENDED 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE THE
WARMEST MOS WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. MERCER

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ALL FACTORS ARE
IN PLACE FOR A SW MARINE PUSH SUNDAY NIGHT. STRATUS SURGE UP THE
COAST ON SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OVER W MT...AND
WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST. THE SW MARINE PUSH
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD PUSH STRATUS UP THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF PUGET
SOUND BY MONDAY MORNING. EARLIER NAM RUNS WERE LESS EXTENSIVE WITH
THE BOUNDARY LAYER RH MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE LATEST 06Z NAM COVERS
ALL OF W WA. THE NAM TIME-HEIGHT SECTION SHOWS A MARINE LAYER AROUND
4000 FEET DEEP MONDAY MORNING. IF THIS WORKS OUT THEN CLOUD COVER
WILL HAVE TO BE INCREASED FOR MONDAY.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH MONDAYS APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT REMAINING INTACT UNTIL IT
MOVES E OF 130W MONDAY MORNING. AT THAT POINT MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS
SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHEARING AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL
FRONT...LEAVING IT TO STALL ALONG THE COAST. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
DRY FOR W WA ON MONDAY...BUT WITH A DEEP MARINE LAYER IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING...CAUSED BY WEAK LIFT
FROM THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT CONTINUES MOVING INLAND.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE OVER THE NE PACIFIC BY TUESDAY WITH SW FLOW ALOFT OVER W
WA. THE TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN ALL NEXT WEEK FOR PERIODS
OF RAIN OR SHOWERS OVER W WA. BOTH MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT REACHING
W WA TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY
SCOOP UP THE REMNANTS OF MONDAYS STALLED FRONT AS IT MOVES INLAND.
KAM

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY TURNING
FLOW ALOFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES INLAND TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA ON SATURDAY GIVING INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE
LOW LEVELS. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND STABLE.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PILOT REPORTS SHOW MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS WITH
TOPS OVER 8000 FEET. FROM ABOUT KSEA SOUTHWARD IN THE INTERIOR...THE
LOWER LEVELS BELOW 3000-5000 FT ARE CLEAR. MVFR CEILINGS ARE FOUND
IN THE INTERIOR FROM ABOUT KSEA NORTHWARD WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE KITSAP PENINSULA. CONDITIONS N OF KHQM ALONG THE COAST ARE
LOW IFR IN STRATUS...LIGHT RAIN AND FOG.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 22Z. CEILINGS WILL BREAK THIS
EVENING AS FLOW BECOMES MORE N/NE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND THE AIR
MASS DRIES SOMEWHAT.

THE LATEST NAM12 SOLUTION SHOWS A LOW STRATUS AND FOG LAYER FORMING
BELOW A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE INTERIOR AS
LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND IS PRECEDED BY RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THE NAM12 MOS GUIDANCE AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE INTERIOR FROM KPAE SOUTHWARD 08Z-20Z
SAT...AND LOW IFR VIS IS POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE STRATUS
INTERSECTS THE GROUND. THIS IS TYPICAL FOR THE EARLY FALL SEASON AS
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND A WEAKENING FRONT. THIS CHANGE WILL BE
REFLECTED IN THE 18Z TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR KPAE...KSEA...KBFI AND
KOLM. THIS STRATUS AND FOG IS ALSO LIKELY TO FORM IN THE CHEHALIS
VALLEY AND IMPACT THE KHQM TERMINAL DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. ALBRECHT

KSEA...CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED TO OVER 3000 FT AT THE TERMINAL AND
LOWER CEILINGS ARE LIFTING NORTH OF THE TERMINAL EXPECT CIGS TO
IMPROVE TO 050-060 LATE THIS MORNING WITH CLOUDS BREAKING DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT LOW
STRATUS WITH CIGS 003-005 TO DEVELOP AROUND AND TO THE NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL ABOUT 09Z AS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
AND TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONDENSES WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THE STRATUS WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ONCE IT FORMS.
THERE IS ABOUT A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT VISIBILITIES AT THE TERMINAL
WILL DROP TO BELOW 1/2SM FG IF THE STRATUS BASES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE STRATUS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AROUND 20Z
SAT. SOUTH WINDS TODAY 4-8 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT IN THE AFTERNOON
THEN BECOME NORTH 6-8 KT AFTER 05Z THROUGH SAT MORNING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK AND DISSIPATING FRONT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
MOVE INLAND TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WILL STRENGTHEN SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
THE HIGH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EAST WINDS ARE LIKELY AT THE EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL ZONE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAKENING FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY INDUCE A
SOUTHERLY SURGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A
MUCH STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST ON TUESDAY. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.


&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML










000
FXUS66 KSEW 191558
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT WED SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS. CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE STRONG RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES AND A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. A
WEAKENING FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS...A FEW
SHOWERS...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN A WETTER AND COOLER PATTERN ALL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN WLY FLOW IS
DISSIPATING ALONG THE N WA COAST THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOW NO
REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND NOT MUCH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. RADAR DATA DOES SHOW A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS FROM THE N
COAST EWD ACROSS THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND OVER THE N INTERIOR.
THESE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE AREA
INCLUDING THE PUGET SOUND REGION SHOULD BE DRY TODAY ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
WILL HANG IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW.
HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE COOL...AROUND 70 FOR THE SOUND AND LOW 70S
ACROSS THE SW INTERIOR.

THE 500 MB RIDGE RAPIDLY AMPLIFIES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT...THEN BECOMES
MORE STRONGLY OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE
FORMS JUST OFF THE COAST. DRYING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TONIGHT IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER...A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL TRAP
SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN A THIN LAYER BELOW 2 KT
ACCORDING TO NAM-BUFFER SOUNDINGS. ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF
RATHER QUICKLY BY MID-LATE MORNING. WITH THE PICK UP IN OFFSHORE
FLOW AND THE DRYING AIR MASS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A GOOD
4-10 DEGREES SATURDAY. THE COAST MAY SEE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH AHEAD OF THE
STRATUS SURGE.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO SHIFT FURTHER INLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THERMALLY INDUCED
TROUGH TO SHIFT INLAND OVER INTERIOR WRN WA. SUNDAY SHOULD THEREFORE
BE THE WARMEST DAY OVER INLAND AREAS. HIGHS IN THE MID 85S WILL
PROBABLY BE COMMON. THE NAM MOS SHOULD AGAIN DO BEST IN THIS
SCENARIO BUT THE GUIDANCE IS STILL LIKELY HANDICAPPED A BIT BY
CLIMATOLOGY. THE FORECAST IS ALREADY TRENDED 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE THE
WARMEST MOS WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. MERCER

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ALL FACTORS ARE
IN PLACE FOR A SW MARINE PUSH SUNDAY NIGHT. STRATUS SURGE UP THE
COAST ON SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OVER W MT...AND
WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST. THE SW MARINE PUSH
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD PUSH STRATUS UP THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF PUGET
SOUND BY MONDAY MORNING. EARLIER NAM RUNS WERE LESS EXTENSIVE WITH
THE BOUNDARY LAYER RH MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE LATEST 06Z NAM COVERS
ALL OF W WA. THE NAM TIME-HEIGHT SECTION SHOWS A MARINE LAYER AROUND
4000 FEET DEEP MONDAY MORNING. IF THIS WORKS OUT THEN CLOUD COVER
WILL HAVE TO BE INCREASED FOR MONDAY.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH MONDAYS APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT REMAINING INTACT UNTIL IT
MOVES E OF 130W MONDAY MORNING. AT THAT POINT MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS
SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHEARING AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL
FRONT...LEAVING IT TO STALL ALONG THE COAST. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
DRY FOR W WA ON MONDAY...BUT WITH A DEEP MARINE LAYER IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING...CAUSED BY WEAK LIFT
FROM THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT CONTINUES MOVING INLAND.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE OVER THE NE PACIFIC BY TUESDAY WITH SW FLOW ALOFT OVER W
WA. THE TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN ALL NEXT WEEK FOR PERIODS
OF RAIN OR SHOWERS OVER W WA. BOTH MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT REACHING
W WA TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY
SCOOP UP THE REMNANTS OF MONDAYS STALLED FRONT AS IT MOVES INLAND.
KAM

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY TURNING
FLOW ALOFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES INLAND TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA ON SATURDAY GIVING INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE
LOW LEVELS. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND STABLE.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PILOT REPORTS SHOW MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS WITH
TOPS OVER 8000 FEET. FROM ABOUT KSEA SOUTHWARD IN THE INTERIOR...THE
LOWER LEVELS BELOW 3000-5000 FT ARE CLEAR. MVFR CEILINGS ARE FOUND
IN THE INTERIOR FROM ABOUT KSEA NORTHWARD WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE KITSAP PENINSULA. CONDITIONS N OF KHQM ALONG THE COAST ARE
LOW IFR IN STRATUS...LIGHT RAIN AND FOG.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 22Z. CEILINGS WILL BREAK THIS
EVENING AS FLOW BECOMES MORE N/NE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND THE AIR
MASS DRIES SOMEWHAT.

THE LATEST NAM12 SOLUTION SHOWS A LOW STRATUS AND FOG LAYER FORMING
BELOW A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE INTERIOR AS
LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND IS PRECEDED BY RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THE NAM12 MOS GUIDANCE AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE INTERIOR FROM KPAE SOUTHWARD 08Z-20Z
SAT...AND LOW IFR VIS IS POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE STRATUS
INTERSECTS THE GROUND. THIS IS TYPICAL FOR THE EARLY FALL SEASON AS
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND A WEAKENING FRONT. THIS CHANGE WILL BE
REFLECTED IN THE 18Z TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR KPAE...KSEA...KBFI AND
KOLM. THIS STRATUS AND FOG IS ALSO LIKELY TO FORM IN THE CHEHALIS
VALLEY AND IMPACT THE KHQM TERMINAL DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. ALBRECHT

KSEA...CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED TO OVER 3000 FT AT THE TERMINAL AND
LOWER CEILINGS ARE LIFTING NORTH OF THE TERMINAL EXPECT CIGS TO
IMPROVE TO 050-060 LATE THIS MORNING WITH CLOUDS BREAKING DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT LOW
STRATUS WITH CIGS 003-005 TO DEVELOP AROUND AND TO THE NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL ABOUT 09Z AS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
AND TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONDENSES WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THE STRATUS WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ONCE IT FORMS.
THERE IS ABOUT A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT VISIBILITIES AT THE TERMINAL
WILL DROP TO BELOW 1/2SM FG IF THE STRATUS BASES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE STRATUS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AROUND 20Z
SAT. SOUTH WINDS TODAY 4-8 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT IN THE AFTERNOON
THEN BECOME NORTH 6-8 KT AFTER 05Z THROUGH SAT MORNING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK AND DISSIPATING FRONT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
MOVE INLAND TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WILL STRENGTHEN SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
THE HIGH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EAST WINDS ARE LIKELY AT THE EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL ZONE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAKENING FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY INDUCE A
SOUTHERLY SURGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A
MUCH STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST ON TUESDAY. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.


&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML











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