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000
FXUS66 KOTX 050605
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1105 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the Independence Day
weekend. Winds will shift to the north overnight and increase as
a front sags in from Canada. Aside from isolated shower chances
toward the Idaho Panhandle, conditions looking dry and warm into
the first half of next week. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms returns late next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front is pushing down across northern WA and ID
this evening. Winds will continue to increase through the night as
the front moves through. Winds will peak early Sunday morning
before decreasing through the late morning and afternoon hours.
Radar is now beginning to show some returns, but doubt it is much
more than some virga or sprinkles at best. /Nisbet

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Wind speeds 15 to 25 kts with gusts toward 30 to 35 kts
will be possible, especially toward COE and MWH late tonight and
early sunday morning. Winds are expected to slowly decrease later
in the day Sunday, but gusts toward 20 to 25kts will be possible
even after 18-20Z. Expect some elevated layers of smoke from
regional wildfires. All TAF sites will be dry and VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  89  61  91  67  93 /   0  10   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  62  85  57  89  61  90 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Pullman        58  89  53  90  56  92 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Lewiston       71  98  65  98  68  99 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Colville       61  92  57  94  62  93 /   0  10   0   0  10  20
Sandpoint      55  83  49  88  54  86 /  10  10  10   0  10  30
Kellogg        61  83  52  88  57  87 /  10  10  10   0   0  20
Moses Lake     71  97  66  98  67 102 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      74  98  72  99  72 100 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           66  96  63  97  65  97 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning until 1 PM PDT Sunday for East Washington
     Northeast (Zone 686).

     Red Flag Warning until 3 PM PDT Sunday for East Washington
     Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington Okanogan/Methow
     Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 050605
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1105 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the Independence Day
weekend. Winds will shift to the north overnight and increase as
a front sags in from Canada. Aside from isolated shower chances
toward the Idaho Panhandle, conditions looking dry and warm into
the first half of next week. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms returns late next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front is pushing down across northern WA and ID
this evening. Winds will continue to increase through the night as
the front moves through. Winds will peak early Sunday morning
before decreasing through the late morning and afternoon hours.
Radar is now beginning to show some returns, but doubt it is much
more than some virga or sprinkles at best. /Nisbet

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Wind speeds 15 to 25 kts with gusts toward 30 to 35 kts
will be possible, especially toward COE and MWH late tonight and
early sunday morning. Winds are expected to slowly decrease later
in the day Sunday, but gusts toward 20 to 25kts will be possible
even after 18-20Z. Expect some elevated layers of smoke from
regional wildfires. All TAF sites will be dry and VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  89  61  91  67  93 /   0  10   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  62  85  57  89  61  90 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Pullman        58  89  53  90  56  92 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Lewiston       71  98  65  98  68  99 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Colville       61  92  57  94  62  93 /   0  10   0   0  10  20
Sandpoint      55  83  49  88  54  86 /  10  10  10   0  10  30
Kellogg        61  83  52  88  57  87 /  10  10  10   0   0  20
Moses Lake     71  97  66  98  67 102 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      74  98  72  99  72 100 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           66  96  63  97  65  97 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning until 1 PM PDT Sunday for East Washington
     Northeast (Zone 686).

     Red Flag Warning until 3 PM PDT Sunday for East Washington
     Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington Okanogan/Methow
     Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 050605
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1105 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the Independence Day
weekend. Winds will shift to the north overnight and increase as
a front sags in from Canada. Aside from isolated shower chances
toward the Idaho Panhandle, conditions looking dry and warm into
the first half of next week. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms returns late next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front is pushing down across northern WA and ID
this evening. Winds will continue to increase through the night as
the front moves through. Winds will peak early Sunday morning
before decreasing through the late morning and afternoon hours.
Radar is now beginning to show some returns, but doubt it is much
more than some virga or sprinkles at best. /Nisbet

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Wind speeds 15 to 25 kts with gusts toward 30 to 35 kts
will be possible, especially toward COE and MWH late tonight and
early sunday morning. Winds are expected to slowly decrease later
in the day Sunday, but gusts toward 20 to 25kts will be possible
even after 18-20Z. Expect some elevated layers of smoke from
regional wildfires. All TAF sites will be dry and VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  89  61  91  67  93 /   0  10   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  62  85  57  89  61  90 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Pullman        58  89  53  90  56  92 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Lewiston       71  98  65  98  68  99 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Colville       61  92  57  94  62  93 /   0  10   0   0  10  20
Sandpoint      55  83  49  88  54  86 /  10  10  10   0  10  30
Kellogg        61  83  52  88  57  87 /  10  10  10   0   0  20
Moses Lake     71  97  66  98  67 102 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      74  98  72  99  72 100 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           66  96  63  97  65  97 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning until 1 PM PDT Sunday for East Washington
     Northeast (Zone 686).

     Red Flag Warning until 3 PM PDT Sunday for East Washington
     Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington Okanogan/Methow
     Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 050605
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1105 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the Independence Day
weekend. Winds will shift to the north overnight and increase as
a front sags in from Canada. Aside from isolated shower chances
toward the Idaho Panhandle, conditions looking dry and warm into
the first half of next week. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms returns late next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front is pushing down across northern WA and ID
this evening. Winds will continue to increase through the night as
the front moves through. Winds will peak early Sunday morning
before decreasing through the late morning and afternoon hours.
Radar is now beginning to show some returns, but doubt it is much
more than some virga or sprinkles at best. /Nisbet

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Wind speeds 15 to 25 kts with gusts toward 30 to 35 kts
will be possible, especially toward COE and MWH late tonight and
early sunday morning. Winds are expected to slowly decrease later
in the day Sunday, but gusts toward 20 to 25kts will be possible
even after 18-20Z. Expect some elevated layers of smoke from
regional wildfires. All TAF sites will be dry and VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  89  61  91  67  93 /   0  10   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  62  85  57  89  61  90 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Pullman        58  89  53  90  56  92 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Lewiston       71  98  65  98  68  99 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Colville       61  92  57  94  62  93 /   0  10   0   0  10  20
Sandpoint      55  83  49  88  54  86 /  10  10  10   0  10  30
Kellogg        61  83  52  88  57  87 /  10  10  10   0   0  20
Moses Lake     71  97  66  98  67 102 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      74  98  72  99  72 100 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           66  96  63  97  65  97 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning until 1 PM PDT Sunday for East Washington
     Northeast (Zone 686).

     Red Flag Warning until 3 PM PDT Sunday for East Washington
     Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington Okanogan/Methow
     Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$



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000
FXUS66 KPQR 050355
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
855 PM PDT SAT JUL  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP INLAND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN LOCATED OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MAY
SPIN SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COOLING LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVES WAY TO WEAK LOWER PRESSURE ALOFT AND A BIT
MORE ONSHORE FLOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...NOT A LOT OF CHANGES OF CONSEQUENCE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES THAT HAS BEEN STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON...TO OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL H8 TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 22 DEG C RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND
UPPER HEIGHTS DIMINISH ONLY SLIGHTLY. A BIT OF SEEPAGE OF MARINE AIR
AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY EASED TEMPS IN
THAT AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE TEMPS INLAND TODAY WERE ONLY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES LESS THAN THE SCORCHING NUMBERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

OTHER THAN SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...THERE ARE REALLY NO LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST OR THE COASTAL
WATERS EXCEPT NEAR FLORENCE THIS EVENING. THUS EXPECT IT WILL TAKE
SOME TIME FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT. BUT A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL PERHAPS GIVE A BIT MORE
COVERAGE BY MORNING AS COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP SOME MARINE SEEPAGE INTO THE SOUTH VALLEY TONIGHT AS WELL.

THE MODELS SHOW A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WORKING ITS WAY NORTH ALONG
THE COAST SUNDAY...CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY MAKE THE COAST
A BIT SLOWER TO SEE THE LOW CLOUDS BREAK OUT ON SUNDAY...THEN HAVE
THE LOW CLOUDS INCREASE EARLIER SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
THE SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY TO CONTINUE AND SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SUPPRESS TEMPS COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH ON
SUNDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE EASED BACK ON THE HIGH TEMP
FORECAST FOR EUGENE ON SUNDAY. AREAS FARTHER NORTH IN THE VALLEY
WILL STILL BE PRETTY HOT THOUGH ON SUNDAY.

OTHER THAN A BIT MORE LOW CLOUDS AGAIN ALONG THE COAST GOING INTO
MONDAY...DO NOT SEE A LOT OF CHANGE MONDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORM
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH MAY GET CLOSER...BUT IT IS NOT CERTAIN IT WILL
REACH OUR LANE COUNTY CASCADES YET. TEMPS INLAND WILL STILL BE QUITE
HOT...BUT PERHAPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THOSE SUNDAY.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REX BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
MID-WEEK WITH CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST COAST STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN LATER THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
WHEN THIS WILL ACTUALLY BREAK DOWN...BUT ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A GOOD
CHANCE THAT THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN BY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE
FOR SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BUT ELSEWHERE LOOKS TO REMAIN
DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A THIN BAND OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE TONIGHT BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z. THIS STRATUS
SHOULD CLEAR BY 17Z SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS INLAND THROUGH
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY SUN...WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. TJ
&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT
AS A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW MOVES OFFSHORE THE WASHINGTON COAST...AND
THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. THE THERMAL LOW WILL
EXPAND OFF OF THE OREGON COAST SUNDAY RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY WIND
REVERSAL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FIRST FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN FOR THE WASHINGTON COAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY KEEPING SURFACE WINDS LIGHT...LESS THAN 15 KT. THE THERMAL
LOW WILL WEAKEN BY THURSDAY WITH W-NW WINDS RETURNING.

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND REMAIN BELOW 6
FEET THROUGH THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
     VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD
     RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF
     WESTERN OREGON.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 050355
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
855 PM PDT SAT JUL  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP INLAND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN LOCATED OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MAY
SPIN SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COOLING LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVES WAY TO WEAK LOWER PRESSURE ALOFT AND A BIT
MORE ONSHORE FLOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...NOT A LOT OF CHANGES OF CONSEQUENCE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES THAT HAS BEEN STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON...TO OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL H8 TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 22 DEG C RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND
UPPER HEIGHTS DIMINISH ONLY SLIGHTLY. A BIT OF SEEPAGE OF MARINE AIR
AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY EASED TEMPS IN
THAT AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE TEMPS INLAND TODAY WERE ONLY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES LESS THAN THE SCORCHING NUMBERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

OTHER THAN SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...THERE ARE REALLY NO LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST OR THE COASTAL
WATERS EXCEPT NEAR FLORENCE THIS EVENING. THUS EXPECT IT WILL TAKE
SOME TIME FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT. BUT A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL PERHAPS GIVE A BIT MORE
COVERAGE BY MORNING AS COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP SOME MARINE SEEPAGE INTO THE SOUTH VALLEY TONIGHT AS WELL.

THE MODELS SHOW A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WORKING ITS WAY NORTH ALONG
THE COAST SUNDAY...CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY MAKE THE COAST
A BIT SLOWER TO SEE THE LOW CLOUDS BREAK OUT ON SUNDAY...THEN HAVE
THE LOW CLOUDS INCREASE EARLIER SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
THE SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY TO CONTINUE AND SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SUPPRESS TEMPS COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH ON
SUNDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE EASED BACK ON THE HIGH TEMP
FORECAST FOR EUGENE ON SUNDAY. AREAS FARTHER NORTH IN THE VALLEY
WILL STILL BE PRETTY HOT THOUGH ON SUNDAY.

OTHER THAN A BIT MORE LOW CLOUDS AGAIN ALONG THE COAST GOING INTO
MONDAY...DO NOT SEE A LOT OF CHANGE MONDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORM
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH MAY GET CLOSER...BUT IT IS NOT CERTAIN IT WILL
REACH OUR LANE COUNTY CASCADES YET. TEMPS INLAND WILL STILL BE QUITE
HOT...BUT PERHAPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THOSE SUNDAY.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REX BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
MID-WEEK WITH CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST COAST STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN LATER THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
WHEN THIS WILL ACTUALLY BREAK DOWN...BUT ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A GOOD
CHANCE THAT THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN BY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE
FOR SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BUT ELSEWHERE LOOKS TO REMAIN
DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A THIN BAND OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE TONIGHT BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z. THIS STRATUS
SHOULD CLEAR BY 17Z SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS INLAND THROUGH
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY SUN...WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. TJ
&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT
AS A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW MOVES OFFSHORE THE WASHINGTON COAST...AND
THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. THE THERMAL LOW WILL
EXPAND OFF OF THE OREGON COAST SUNDAY RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY WIND
REVERSAL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FIRST FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN FOR THE WASHINGTON COAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY KEEPING SURFACE WINDS LIGHT...LESS THAN 15 KT. THE THERMAL
LOW WILL WEAKEN BY THURSDAY WITH W-NW WINDS RETURNING.

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND REMAIN BELOW 6
FEET THROUGH THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
     VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD
     RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF
     WESTERN OREGON.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 050355
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
855 PM PDT SAT JUL  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP INLAND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN LOCATED OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MAY
SPIN SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COOLING LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVES WAY TO WEAK LOWER PRESSURE ALOFT AND A BIT
MORE ONSHORE FLOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...NOT A LOT OF CHANGES OF CONSEQUENCE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES THAT HAS BEEN STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON...TO OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL H8 TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 22 DEG C RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND
UPPER HEIGHTS DIMINISH ONLY SLIGHTLY. A BIT OF SEEPAGE OF MARINE AIR
AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY EASED TEMPS IN
THAT AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE TEMPS INLAND TODAY WERE ONLY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES LESS THAN THE SCORCHING NUMBERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

OTHER THAN SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...THERE ARE REALLY NO LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST OR THE COASTAL
WATERS EXCEPT NEAR FLORENCE THIS EVENING. THUS EXPECT IT WILL TAKE
SOME TIME FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT. BUT A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL PERHAPS GIVE A BIT MORE
COVERAGE BY MORNING AS COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP SOME MARINE SEEPAGE INTO THE SOUTH VALLEY TONIGHT AS WELL.

THE MODELS SHOW A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WORKING ITS WAY NORTH ALONG
THE COAST SUNDAY...CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY MAKE THE COAST
A BIT SLOWER TO SEE THE LOW CLOUDS BREAK OUT ON SUNDAY...THEN HAVE
THE LOW CLOUDS INCREASE EARLIER SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
THE SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY TO CONTINUE AND SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SUPPRESS TEMPS COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH ON
SUNDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE EASED BACK ON THE HIGH TEMP
FORECAST FOR EUGENE ON SUNDAY. AREAS FARTHER NORTH IN THE VALLEY
WILL STILL BE PRETTY HOT THOUGH ON SUNDAY.

OTHER THAN A BIT MORE LOW CLOUDS AGAIN ALONG THE COAST GOING INTO
MONDAY...DO NOT SEE A LOT OF CHANGE MONDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORM
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH MAY GET CLOSER...BUT IT IS NOT CERTAIN IT WILL
REACH OUR LANE COUNTY CASCADES YET. TEMPS INLAND WILL STILL BE QUITE
HOT...BUT PERHAPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THOSE SUNDAY.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REX BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
MID-WEEK WITH CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST COAST STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN LATER THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
WHEN THIS WILL ACTUALLY BREAK DOWN...BUT ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A GOOD
CHANCE THAT THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN BY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE
FOR SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BUT ELSEWHERE LOOKS TO REMAIN
DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A THIN BAND OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE TONIGHT BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z. THIS STRATUS
SHOULD CLEAR BY 17Z SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS INLAND THROUGH
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY SUN...WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. TJ
&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT
AS A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW MOVES OFFSHORE THE WASHINGTON COAST...AND
THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. THE THERMAL LOW WILL
EXPAND OFF OF THE OREGON COAST SUNDAY RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY WIND
REVERSAL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FIRST FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN FOR THE WASHINGTON COAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY KEEPING SURFACE WINDS LIGHT...LESS THAN 15 KT. THE THERMAL
LOW WILL WEAKEN BY THURSDAY WITH W-NW WINDS RETURNING.

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND REMAIN BELOW 6
FEET THROUGH THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
     VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD
     RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF
     WESTERN OREGON.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 050355
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
855 PM PDT SAT JUL  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP INLAND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN LOCATED OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MAY
SPIN SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COOLING LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVES WAY TO WEAK LOWER PRESSURE ALOFT AND A BIT
MORE ONSHORE FLOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...NOT A LOT OF CHANGES OF CONSEQUENCE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES THAT HAS BEEN STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON...TO OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL H8 TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 22 DEG C RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND
UPPER HEIGHTS DIMINISH ONLY SLIGHTLY. A BIT OF SEEPAGE OF MARINE AIR
AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY EASED TEMPS IN
THAT AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE TEMPS INLAND TODAY WERE ONLY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES LESS THAN THE SCORCHING NUMBERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

OTHER THAN SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...THERE ARE REALLY NO LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST OR THE COASTAL
WATERS EXCEPT NEAR FLORENCE THIS EVENING. THUS EXPECT IT WILL TAKE
SOME TIME FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT. BUT A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL PERHAPS GIVE A BIT MORE
COVERAGE BY MORNING AS COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP SOME MARINE SEEPAGE INTO THE SOUTH VALLEY TONIGHT AS WELL.

THE MODELS SHOW A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WORKING ITS WAY NORTH ALONG
THE COAST SUNDAY...CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY MAKE THE COAST
A BIT SLOWER TO SEE THE LOW CLOUDS BREAK OUT ON SUNDAY...THEN HAVE
THE LOW CLOUDS INCREASE EARLIER SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
THE SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY TO CONTINUE AND SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SUPPRESS TEMPS COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH ON
SUNDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE EASED BACK ON THE HIGH TEMP
FORECAST FOR EUGENE ON SUNDAY. AREAS FARTHER NORTH IN THE VALLEY
WILL STILL BE PRETTY HOT THOUGH ON SUNDAY.

OTHER THAN A BIT MORE LOW CLOUDS AGAIN ALONG THE COAST GOING INTO
MONDAY...DO NOT SEE A LOT OF CHANGE MONDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORM
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH MAY GET CLOSER...BUT IT IS NOT CERTAIN IT WILL
REACH OUR LANE COUNTY CASCADES YET. TEMPS INLAND WILL STILL BE QUITE
HOT...BUT PERHAPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THOSE SUNDAY.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REX BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
MID-WEEK WITH CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST COAST STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN LATER THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
WHEN THIS WILL ACTUALLY BREAK DOWN...BUT ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A GOOD
CHANCE THAT THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN BY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE
FOR SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BUT ELSEWHERE LOOKS TO REMAIN
DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A THIN BAND OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE TONIGHT BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z. THIS STRATUS
SHOULD CLEAR BY 17Z SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS INLAND THROUGH
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY SUN...WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. TJ
&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT
AS A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW MOVES OFFSHORE THE WASHINGTON COAST...AND
THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. THE THERMAL LOW WILL
EXPAND OFF OF THE OREGON COAST SUNDAY RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY WIND
REVERSAL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FIRST FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN FOR THE WASHINGTON COAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY KEEPING SURFACE WINDS LIGHT...LESS THAN 15 KT. THE THERMAL
LOW WILL WEAKEN BY THURSDAY WITH W-NW WINDS RETURNING.

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND REMAIN BELOW 6
FEET THROUGH THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
     VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD
     RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF
     WESTERN OREGON.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 050355
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
855 PM PDT SAT JUL  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP INLAND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN LOCATED OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MAY
SPIN SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COOLING LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVES WAY TO WEAK LOWER PRESSURE ALOFT AND A BIT
MORE ONSHORE FLOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...NOT A LOT OF CHANGES OF CONSEQUENCE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES THAT HAS BEEN STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON...TO OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL H8 TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 22 DEG C RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND
UPPER HEIGHTS DIMINISH ONLY SLIGHTLY. A BIT OF SEEPAGE OF MARINE AIR
AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY EASED TEMPS IN
THAT AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE TEMPS INLAND TODAY WERE ONLY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES LESS THAN THE SCORCHING NUMBERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

OTHER THAN SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...THERE ARE REALLY NO LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST OR THE COASTAL
WATERS EXCEPT NEAR FLORENCE THIS EVENING. THUS EXPECT IT WILL TAKE
SOME TIME FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT. BUT A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL PERHAPS GIVE A BIT MORE
COVERAGE BY MORNING AS COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP SOME MARINE SEEPAGE INTO THE SOUTH VALLEY TONIGHT AS WELL.

THE MODELS SHOW A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WORKING ITS WAY NORTH ALONG
THE COAST SUNDAY...CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY MAKE THE COAST
A BIT SLOWER TO SEE THE LOW CLOUDS BREAK OUT ON SUNDAY...THEN HAVE
THE LOW CLOUDS INCREASE EARLIER SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
THE SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY TO CONTINUE AND SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SUPPRESS TEMPS COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH ON
SUNDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE EASED BACK ON THE HIGH TEMP
FORECAST FOR EUGENE ON SUNDAY. AREAS FARTHER NORTH IN THE VALLEY
WILL STILL BE PRETTY HOT THOUGH ON SUNDAY.

OTHER THAN A BIT MORE LOW CLOUDS AGAIN ALONG THE COAST GOING INTO
MONDAY...DO NOT SEE A LOT OF CHANGE MONDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORM
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH MAY GET CLOSER...BUT IT IS NOT CERTAIN IT WILL
REACH OUR LANE COUNTY CASCADES YET. TEMPS INLAND WILL STILL BE QUITE
HOT...BUT PERHAPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THOSE SUNDAY.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REX BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
MID-WEEK WITH CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST COAST STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN LATER THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
WHEN THIS WILL ACTUALLY BREAK DOWN...BUT ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A GOOD
CHANCE THAT THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN BY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE
FOR SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BUT ELSEWHERE LOOKS TO REMAIN
DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A THIN BAND OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE TONIGHT BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z. THIS STRATUS
SHOULD CLEAR BY 17Z SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS INLAND THROUGH
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY SUN...WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. TJ
&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT
AS A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW MOVES OFFSHORE THE WASHINGTON COAST...AND
THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. THE THERMAL LOW WILL
EXPAND OFF OF THE OREGON COAST SUNDAY RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY WIND
REVERSAL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FIRST FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN FOR THE WASHINGTON COAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY KEEPING SURFACE WINDS LIGHT...LESS THAN 15 KT. THE THERMAL
LOW WILL WEAKEN BY THURSDAY WITH W-NW WINDS RETURNING.

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND REMAIN BELOW 6
FEET THROUGH THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
     VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD
     RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF
     WESTERN OREGON.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 050355
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
855 PM PDT SAT JUL  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP INLAND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN LOCATED OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MAY
SPIN SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COOLING LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVES WAY TO WEAK LOWER PRESSURE ALOFT AND A BIT
MORE ONSHORE FLOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...NOT A LOT OF CHANGES OF CONSEQUENCE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES THAT HAS BEEN STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON...TO OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL H8 TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 22 DEG C RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND
UPPER HEIGHTS DIMINISH ONLY SLIGHTLY. A BIT OF SEEPAGE OF MARINE AIR
AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY EASED TEMPS IN
THAT AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE TEMPS INLAND TODAY WERE ONLY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES LESS THAN THE SCORCHING NUMBERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

OTHER THAN SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...THERE ARE REALLY NO LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST OR THE COASTAL
WATERS EXCEPT NEAR FLORENCE THIS EVENING. THUS EXPECT IT WILL TAKE
SOME TIME FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT. BUT A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL PERHAPS GIVE A BIT MORE
COVERAGE BY MORNING AS COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP SOME MARINE SEEPAGE INTO THE SOUTH VALLEY TONIGHT AS WELL.

THE MODELS SHOW A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WORKING ITS WAY NORTH ALONG
THE COAST SUNDAY...CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY MAKE THE COAST
A BIT SLOWER TO SEE THE LOW CLOUDS BREAK OUT ON SUNDAY...THEN HAVE
THE LOW CLOUDS INCREASE EARLIER SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
THE SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY TO CONTINUE AND SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SUPPRESS TEMPS COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH ON
SUNDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE EASED BACK ON THE HIGH TEMP
FORECAST FOR EUGENE ON SUNDAY. AREAS FARTHER NORTH IN THE VALLEY
WILL STILL BE PRETTY HOT THOUGH ON SUNDAY.

OTHER THAN A BIT MORE LOW CLOUDS AGAIN ALONG THE COAST GOING INTO
MONDAY...DO NOT SEE A LOT OF CHANGE MONDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORM
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH MAY GET CLOSER...BUT IT IS NOT CERTAIN IT WILL
REACH OUR LANE COUNTY CASCADES YET. TEMPS INLAND WILL STILL BE QUITE
HOT...BUT PERHAPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THOSE SUNDAY.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REX BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
MID-WEEK WITH CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST COAST STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN LATER THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
WHEN THIS WILL ACTUALLY BREAK DOWN...BUT ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A GOOD
CHANCE THAT THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN BY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE
FOR SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BUT ELSEWHERE LOOKS TO REMAIN
DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A THIN BAND OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE TONIGHT BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z. THIS STRATUS
SHOULD CLEAR BY 17Z SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS INLAND THROUGH
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY SUN...WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. TJ
&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT
AS A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW MOVES OFFSHORE THE WASHINGTON COAST...AND
THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. THE THERMAL LOW WILL
EXPAND OFF OF THE OREGON COAST SUNDAY RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY WIND
REVERSAL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FIRST FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN FOR THE WASHINGTON COAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY KEEPING SURFACE WINDS LIGHT...LESS THAN 15 KT. THE THERMAL
LOW WILL WEAKEN BY THURSDAY WITH W-NW WINDS RETURNING.

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND REMAIN BELOW 6
FEET THROUGH THURSDAY. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
     VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD
     RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF
     WESTERN OREGON.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSEW 050351
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
845 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SITTING OFFSHORE COMBINED
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL RESULT IN HOT
WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MONDAY. MUCH WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH
NEARS THE AREA AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS PARKED ALONG 140W
WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES SOUTHWEST
INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA MOVES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS HIGH IS CAUSING LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO INCREASE TONIGHT.

THE BELLINGHAM TO WILLIAMS LAKE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW -9.4 MB AND
FALLING. THE INCREASE IN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE ADIABATIC
COMPRESSION OF THE LOWER LEVELS DESPITE ONLY MODEST 500 MB HEIGHTS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 580 DAM RANGE AND WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A THERMAL TROUGH IN THE WASHINGTON COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY. THE
THERMAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE INTO THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS...WEAKENING THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

850 MB TEMPERATURES OF 18.4C THIS AFTERNOON RISES TO OVER 20C ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN COOLS ONLY TO AROUND 18.5C LATE MONDAY. 1000-
850 MB THICKNESS RISE SEVERAL METERS ON SUNDAY...AND WITH A VERY DRY
LOWER LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE THIS THICKNESS INCREASE REPRESENTS
TEMPERATURE -LITTLE VIRTUAL ABOUT IT. THE 00Z NAM12 AND ITS MOS
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE WARMER GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS OF
EARLIER TODAY

BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST
OF WESTERN WASHINGTON WERE RAISED 2-4 DEGREES FROM THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...AND WERE RAISED A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON MONDAY.
WITH THE HOTTER CONDITIONS EXTENDING INTO MONDAY...THE HEAT ADVISORY
FOR THE URBAN CENTRAL PUGET SOUND ZONES WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 9 PM PDT
MONDAY EVENING.

A WEAK PUSH MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO COOL A FEW DEGREES -
AND STAY BELOW THE 90 DEGREE MARK AT SEATAC AIRPORT. IF WE DO REACH
90 AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY...IT WILL BE 6 DAYS IN A ROW WITH 90 OR
ABOVE...A NEW ALL TIME RECORD. IF HOT WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MID
WEEK...IT WILL ONLY SOLIDIFY THE RECORD. COASTAL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND THE COAST SHOULD COOL DOWN. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE WARMTH
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK. A COOLING TREND SHOULD START THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH NEARS THE AREA AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. THE 12Z GFS IS SLOW AND WEAK AND SPLITS AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS...AND THE SRN
PORTION OF THIS TROUGH SIMPLY REPLACES AN OLD CUT OFF LOW THAT HAS
BEEN OFF NRN CALIF FOR AWHILE NOW. AS THAT OLD CALIF CUT OFF LOW
KICKS INLAND SOME SHOWERS SHOULD GO INTO ERN OREGON AND MAYBE ERN WA
LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WRN WA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. MARINE LAYER
CLOUDINESS IS FAIRLY LIKELY FOR WRN WA LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE
THERMAL TROUGH HAVING SHIFTED WELL INLAND AND WRN WA TEMPS SHOULD BE
CLOSER TO AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERN WA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
OFFSHORE AND AN UPPER TROF OVER THE NRN ROCKIES THRU SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL KEEP THE FLOW ALOFT FROM THE NW. A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW
PRES TROF WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT...
RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.

KSEA...VFR. LIGHT NLY WINDS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.MARINE...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRES WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO N OR NE
FLOW. THE AREA OF LOW PRES WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE E
OF THE CASCADES MON AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO
RETURN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE GOOD NEWS FOR FIREWORKS-RELATED ACTIVITIES IS
THAT BREEZES IN THE MAJOR POPULATION CENTERS WILL BE LIGHT. THAT IS
ABOUT ALL THE GOOD NEWS THERE IS. NE GRADIENTS WILL BE PICKING UP
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND PEAKING AROUND SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. THE
BELLINGHAM-WILLIAMS LAKE B.C. GRADIENT IS ALREADY -6.8 MB AND
STRENGTHENING. BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THIS WILL INITIATE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF GUSTY NE WINDS IN THE NORTH CASCADES...WITH MARBLEMOUNT LIKELY
BEING DRY AND WINDY OVERNIGHT (THAT IS NORMALLY A CALM AND HUMID
LOCATION AT NIGHT). OVERNIGHT...NE WINDS WILL KICK IN OVER WESTERN
WHATCOM COUNTY...THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS...AND THE NW OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. THIS WILL USHER IN A WARM AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS
WITH SOME PLACES EXPERIENCING DECREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
OVERNIGHT. THE MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
MORNING...DURING A PERIOD BEFORE WINDS DIE DOWN BUT AFTER RH HAS
DROPPED FOR THE DAY. THE NE WINDS WILL USHER IN HOT TEMPERATURES ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST...WITH FORKS EXPECTING A HIGH OF 92 DEGREES ON
SUNDAY.

MOST OF THE PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS WILL SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROP
INTO THE 18-30 PERCENT RANGE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THAT RANGE IS
ABOUT AS DRY AS WE GET AROUND HERE. MEANWHILE...THE PUGET SOUND
LOWLANDS ALONG AND WEST OF I-5...ESPECIALLY THE KITSAP PENINSULA...
SHOULD HAVE N-NE WINDS OF 10-15 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS OF
THAT MODEST MAGNITUDE WITH SUCH LOW HUMIDITY AND SUCH DRY FUELS
COULD REALLY PUSH GRASS FIRES ALONG QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY WHERE WIND
AND SLOPE ALIGN. A RED FLAG WARNING IS BEING ISSUED TO HANDLE THE
COMBINATION OF WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY.

LASTLY...THE MID-LEVEL HAINES INDEX WILL BE IN THE 5-6 RANGE ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS INDICATES A DRY AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER. FIRES BURNING AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 2000 FEET
UNDER SUCH CONDITIONS CAN BECOME ROWDY AND PLUME-DOMINATED.

WITH SUCH HOT AND DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH FUELS THAT
ARE UNPRECEDENTEDLY DRY FOR SO EARLY IN FIRE SEASON...PLEASE BE
CAREFUL WITH FLAMMABLE MATERIALS. THE CONDITIONS THIS FOURTH OF JULY
ARE FAR BEYOND THE LEVEL OF FIRE DANGER THAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED IN
THE LIFETIME OF MANY WHO WILL BE PLAYING WITH FIREWORKS THIS
WEEKEND. BY THE SAME TOKEN...FIREFIGHTERS RESPONDING TO WILDLAND
FIRES SHOULD EXPECT UNUSUALLY VOLATILE CONDITIONS AND FIGHT FIRE
HAVING PROVIDED FOR SAFETY FIRST.HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL PUGET SOUND ZONES THROUGH
      9 PM PDT MONDAY EVENING.
     RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TIL 5 PM SUNDAY FOR
      ZONES 650...653...654...AND 656.


PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE



000
FXUS66 KSEW 050351
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
845 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SITTING OFFSHORE COMBINED
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL RESULT IN HOT
WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MONDAY. MUCH WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH
NEARS THE AREA AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS PARKED ALONG 140W
WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES SOUTHWEST
INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA MOVES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS HIGH IS CAUSING LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO INCREASE TONIGHT.

THE BELLINGHAM TO WILLIAMS LAKE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW -9.4 MB AND
FALLING. THE INCREASE IN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE ADIABATIC
COMPRESSION OF THE LOWER LEVELS DESPITE ONLY MODEST 500 MB HEIGHTS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 580 DAM RANGE AND WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A THERMAL TROUGH IN THE WASHINGTON COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY. THE
THERMAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE INTO THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS...WEAKENING THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

850 MB TEMPERATURES OF 18.4C THIS AFTERNOON RISES TO OVER 20C ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN COOLS ONLY TO AROUND 18.5C LATE MONDAY. 1000-
850 MB THICKNESS RISE SEVERAL METERS ON SUNDAY...AND WITH A VERY DRY
LOWER LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE THIS THICKNESS INCREASE REPRESENTS
TEMPERATURE -LITTLE VIRTUAL ABOUT IT. THE 00Z NAM12 AND ITS MOS
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE WARMER GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS OF
EARLIER TODAY

BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST
OF WESTERN WASHINGTON WERE RAISED 2-4 DEGREES FROM THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...AND WERE RAISED A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON MONDAY.
WITH THE HOTTER CONDITIONS EXTENDING INTO MONDAY...THE HEAT ADVISORY
FOR THE URBAN CENTRAL PUGET SOUND ZONES WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 9 PM PDT
MONDAY EVENING.

A WEAK PUSH MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO COOL A FEW DEGREES -
AND STAY BELOW THE 90 DEGREE MARK AT SEATAC AIRPORT. IF WE DO REACH
90 AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY...IT WILL BE 6 DAYS IN A ROW WITH 90 OR
ABOVE...A NEW ALL TIME RECORD. IF HOT WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MID
WEEK...IT WILL ONLY SOLIDIFY THE RECORD. COASTAL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND THE COAST SHOULD COOL DOWN. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE WARMTH
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK. A COOLING TREND SHOULD START THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH NEARS THE AREA AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. THE 12Z GFS IS SLOW AND WEAK AND SPLITS AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS...AND THE SRN
PORTION OF THIS TROUGH SIMPLY REPLACES AN OLD CUT OFF LOW THAT HAS
BEEN OFF NRN CALIF FOR AWHILE NOW. AS THAT OLD CALIF CUT OFF LOW
KICKS INLAND SOME SHOWERS SHOULD GO INTO ERN OREGON AND MAYBE ERN WA
LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WRN WA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. MARINE LAYER
CLOUDINESS IS FAIRLY LIKELY FOR WRN WA LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE
THERMAL TROUGH HAVING SHIFTED WELL INLAND AND WRN WA TEMPS SHOULD BE
CLOSER TO AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERN WA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
OFFSHORE AND AN UPPER TROF OVER THE NRN ROCKIES THRU SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL KEEP THE FLOW ALOFT FROM THE NW. A THERMALLY INDUCED LOW
PRES TROF WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT...
RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.

KSEA...VFR. LIGHT NLY WINDS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.MARINE...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRES WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO N OR NE
FLOW. THE AREA OF LOW PRES WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE E
OF THE CASCADES MON AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO
RETURN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE GOOD NEWS FOR FIREWORKS-RELATED ACTIVITIES IS
THAT BREEZES IN THE MAJOR POPULATION CENTERS WILL BE LIGHT. THAT IS
ABOUT ALL THE GOOD NEWS THERE IS. NE GRADIENTS WILL BE PICKING UP
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND PEAKING AROUND SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. THE
BELLINGHAM-WILLIAMS LAKE B.C. GRADIENT IS ALREADY -6.8 MB AND
STRENGTHENING. BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THIS WILL INITIATE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF GUSTY NE WINDS IN THE NORTH CASCADES...WITH MARBLEMOUNT LIKELY
BEING DRY AND WINDY OVERNIGHT (THAT IS NORMALLY A CALM AND HUMID
LOCATION AT NIGHT). OVERNIGHT...NE WINDS WILL KICK IN OVER WESTERN
WHATCOM COUNTY...THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS...AND THE NW OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. THIS WILL USHER IN A WARM AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS
WITH SOME PLACES EXPERIENCING DECREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
OVERNIGHT. THE MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
MORNING...DURING A PERIOD BEFORE WINDS DIE DOWN BUT AFTER RH HAS
DROPPED FOR THE DAY. THE NE WINDS WILL USHER IN HOT TEMPERATURES ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST...WITH FORKS EXPECTING A HIGH OF 92 DEGREES ON
SUNDAY.

MOST OF THE PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS WILL SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROP
INTO THE 18-30 PERCENT RANGE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THAT RANGE IS
ABOUT AS DRY AS WE GET AROUND HERE. MEANWHILE...THE PUGET SOUND
LOWLANDS ALONG AND WEST OF I-5...ESPECIALLY THE KITSAP PENINSULA...
SHOULD HAVE N-NE WINDS OF 10-15 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS OF
THAT MODEST MAGNITUDE WITH SUCH LOW HUMIDITY AND SUCH DRY FUELS
COULD REALLY PUSH GRASS FIRES ALONG QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY WHERE WIND
AND SLOPE ALIGN. A RED FLAG WARNING IS BEING ISSUED TO HANDLE THE
COMBINATION OF WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY.

LASTLY...THE MID-LEVEL HAINES INDEX WILL BE IN THE 5-6 RANGE ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS INDICATES A DRY AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER. FIRES BURNING AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 2000 FEET
UNDER SUCH CONDITIONS CAN BECOME ROWDY AND PLUME-DOMINATED.

WITH SUCH HOT AND DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH FUELS THAT
ARE UNPRECEDENTEDLY DRY FOR SO EARLY IN FIRE SEASON...PLEASE BE
CAREFUL WITH FLAMMABLE MATERIALS. THE CONDITIONS THIS FOURTH OF JULY
ARE FAR BEYOND THE LEVEL OF FIRE DANGER THAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED IN
THE LIFETIME OF MANY WHO WILL BE PLAYING WITH FIREWORKS THIS
WEEKEND. BY THE SAME TOKEN...FIREFIGHTERS RESPONDING TO WILDLAND
FIRES SHOULD EXPECT UNUSUALLY VOLATILE CONDITIONS AND FIGHT FIRE
HAVING PROVIDED FOR SAFETY FIRST.HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL PUGET SOUND ZONES THROUGH
      9 PM PDT MONDAY EVENING.
     RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TIL 5 PM SUNDAY FOR
      ZONES 650...653...654...AND 656.


PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE




000
FXUS66 KOTX 050032
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
532 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the Independence Day
weekend. Saturday night into Sunday winds will shift to the north
and increase as a front sags in from Canada. Aside from isolated
shower chances toward the Idaho Panhandle, conditions looking dry
and warm into the first half of next week. A slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms returns late next week.

&&
.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Saturday: The Inland NW will be in a west to
northwest flow through the middle of next week. This will be
accompanied by the occasional shortwave passage with breezy to
windy conditions and minor shower chances. Toward later next week
low pressure off the California coast begins to shift inland,
bringing the potential for more scattered showers and
thunderstorms. As a whole the pattern remains dry, with moderating
but still above normal temperatures.

Between tonight and Sunday night the first shortwave crosses the
Inland NW. That feature was dropping across BC this afternoon and
it`ll usher the cold front across the Canadian border this
evening. This will lead to strengthening northerly winds through
the evening into Sunday. Just in time to heighten the concern
around the Fourth of July evening, speeds will be or rise into in
the breezy category. Directions turn north-northwest over much of
the region Saturday night, before they gradually shift north-
northeast into Sunday. We will continue to see some channeling and
higher winds down the Okanogan Valley and out through the Purcell
Trench. Speeds then begin to subside Sunday afternoon and
especially Sunday night.

There is a marginal increase in layer moisture and instability
along the front and just ahead of the mid-level shortwave,
especially toward the ID/MT border. Look for a band of clouds to
drop by Saturday evening into Sunday morning, with slight
shower/thunderstorm chances along the ID/MT border. For Sunday
afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances will continue across
portions of the lower Panhandle, including southeast Shoshone
county and possibly toward the Camas Prairie. However in that
latter region confidence is very low. In general, however, a
reinforcing shot of drier air starts to spread down from Canada
overnight into Sunday just on the heels of the mid-level
shortwave. So most of the region will stay precipitation-free.

Between Monday night and Tuesday night the second substantial
shortwave drops through. This system carries slightly more
moisture and instability and overall has a better threat of
showers and thunderstorms. Some clouds increase Monday night,
with the threat for a few showers nudging toward the northern
Panhandle. The better chances develop across the northern
mountains through northern Panhandle going into Tuesday
afternoon, before waning through the evening and overnight.

From Wednesday to Saturday the pattern begins to evolve a bit,
with low pressure off the CA coast migrates inland through the end
of the week. Some instability wraps around the mountains, while
the deeper Columbia Basin remains relatively stable. Where models
disagree is over whether how much energy coming around that
incoming low drifts north into our region to bring at least an
isolated shower and thunderstorm threat. Through Thursday most
models keep the threat south of the region of just into our
Blues/Camas Prairie. The GFS brings chances into the Cascades by
Thursday, but for now this seems an outlier. By next Friday into
Saturday better chances come to the southeast WA and the lower
Panhandle and move up along the ID/MT border, with a few solutions
wrapping some threat back across the northern WA mountains.
Overall look for an increasing threat going into the end of next
week. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A cold front sags in this evening, with a few more
middle clouds. A more notable feature will be strengthening winds
at some TAF sites, especially away from PUW/LWS. The first
increase is expected this evening, followed by a second surge late
Saturday night/Sunday morning. Speeds near 15 to 25kts with gusts
toward 30 to 35kts will be possible, especially toward COE and MWH
with that second surge. Winds are expected to slowly decrease
later in the day Sunday, but gusts toward 20 to 25kts will be
possible even after 18-20Z. Expect some elevated layers of smoke from
regional wildfires. All TAF sites will be dry and VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag Warnings continue for portions of the central and
northeast Washington through early to mid Sunday afternoon. A dry
cold front is projected to drop southward from Canada between
6 to 10 pm tonight, which will increase winds and gusts across
the region. The biggest concern remains gusts of 30 to 40 mph
and a fair amount dry air coming behind the frontal passage,
especially at around 850mb (or 4000 feet). Poor recoveries are
expected in the mountains and potentially the valleys should this
drier air mix in. We should rise above the critical RH thresholds
briefly near 5 AM but drop again. The strength of the sustained
winds is expected to wane after about 20-22Z (1 to 3 PM). General
winds improve into the remainder of the week, but RHs values
remain low through, with continued above normal temperatures.

There will be slight thunderstorm chances around Tuesday in the
northern mountains and a broader, but still slight, shower and
thunderstorm threat arrives toward the end of next week as low
pressure off the CA coast starts to move inland. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  89  61  91  67  93 /   0  10   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  62  85  57  89  61  90 /   0  10  10   0   0  20
Pullman        58  89  53  90  56  92 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Lewiston       71  98  65  98  68  99 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Colville       61  92  57  94  62  93 /   0  10   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      55  83  49  88  54  86 /  10  10  10   0  10  20
Kellogg        61  83  52  88  57  87 /  10  10  10   0   0  20
Moses Lake     71  97  66  98  67 102 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      74  98  72  99  72 100 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           66  96  63  97  65  97 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning until 1 PM PDT Sunday for East Washington
     Northeast (Zone 686).

     Red Flag Warning until 3 PM PDT Sunday for East Washington
     Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington Okanogan/Methow
     Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 050032
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
532 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the Independence Day
weekend. Saturday night into Sunday winds will shift to the north
and increase as a front sags in from Canada. Aside from isolated
shower chances toward the Idaho Panhandle, conditions looking dry
and warm into the first half of next week. A slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms returns late next week.

&&
.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Saturday: The Inland NW will be in a west to
northwest flow through the middle of next week. This will be
accompanied by the occasional shortwave passage with breezy to
windy conditions and minor shower chances. Toward later next week
low pressure off the California coast begins to shift inland,
bringing the potential for more scattered showers and
thunderstorms. As a whole the pattern remains dry, with moderating
but still above normal temperatures.

Between tonight and Sunday night the first shortwave crosses the
Inland NW. That feature was dropping across BC this afternoon and
it`ll usher the cold front across the Canadian border this
evening. This will lead to strengthening northerly winds through
the evening into Sunday. Just in time to heighten the concern
around the Fourth of July evening, speeds will be or rise into in
the breezy category. Directions turn north-northwest over much of
the region Saturday night, before they gradually shift north-
northeast into Sunday. We will continue to see some channeling and
higher winds down the Okanogan Valley and out through the Purcell
Trench. Speeds then begin to subside Sunday afternoon and
especially Sunday night.

There is a marginal increase in layer moisture and instability
along the front and just ahead of the mid-level shortwave,
especially toward the ID/MT border. Look for a band of clouds to
drop by Saturday evening into Sunday morning, with slight
shower/thunderstorm chances along the ID/MT border. For Sunday
afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances will continue across
portions of the lower Panhandle, including southeast Shoshone
county and possibly toward the Camas Prairie. However in that
latter region confidence is very low. In general, however, a
reinforcing shot of drier air starts to spread down from Canada
overnight into Sunday just on the heels of the mid-level
shortwave. So most of the region will stay precipitation-free.

Between Monday night and Tuesday night the second substantial
shortwave drops through. This system carries slightly more
moisture and instability and overall has a better threat of
showers and thunderstorms. Some clouds increase Monday night,
with the threat for a few showers nudging toward the northern
Panhandle. The better chances develop across the northern
mountains through northern Panhandle going into Tuesday
afternoon, before waning through the evening and overnight.

From Wednesday to Saturday the pattern begins to evolve a bit,
with low pressure off the CA coast migrates inland through the end
of the week. Some instability wraps around the mountains, while
the deeper Columbia Basin remains relatively stable. Where models
disagree is over whether how much energy coming around that
incoming low drifts north into our region to bring at least an
isolated shower and thunderstorm threat. Through Thursday most
models keep the threat south of the region of just into our
Blues/Camas Prairie. The GFS brings chances into the Cascades by
Thursday, but for now this seems an outlier. By next Friday into
Saturday better chances come to the southeast WA and the lower
Panhandle and move up along the ID/MT border, with a few solutions
wrapping some threat back across the northern WA mountains.
Overall look for an increasing threat going into the end of next
week. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A cold front sags in this evening, with a few more
middle clouds. A more notable feature will be strengthening winds
at some TAF sites, especially away from PUW/LWS. The first
increase is expected this evening, followed by a second surge late
Saturday night/Sunday morning. Speeds near 15 to 25kts with gusts
toward 30 to 35kts will be possible, especially toward COE and MWH
with that second surge. Winds are expected to slowly decrease
later in the day Sunday, but gusts toward 20 to 25kts will be
possible even after 18-20Z. Expect some elevated layers of smoke from
regional wildfires. All TAF sites will be dry and VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag Warnings continue for portions of the central and
northeast Washington through early to mid Sunday afternoon. A dry
cold front is projected to drop southward from Canada between
6 to 10 pm tonight, which will increase winds and gusts across
the region. The biggest concern remains gusts of 30 to 40 mph
and a fair amount dry air coming behind the frontal passage,
especially at around 850mb (or 4000 feet). Poor recoveries are
expected in the mountains and potentially the valleys should this
drier air mix in. We should rise above the critical RH thresholds
briefly near 5 AM but drop again. The strength of the sustained
winds is expected to wane after about 20-22Z (1 to 3 PM). General
winds improve into the remainder of the week, but RHs values
remain low through, with continued above normal temperatures.

There will be slight thunderstorm chances around Tuesday in the
northern mountains and a broader, but still slight, shower and
thunderstorm threat arrives toward the end of next week as low
pressure off the CA coast starts to move inland. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  89  61  91  67  93 /   0  10   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  62  85  57  89  61  90 /   0  10  10   0   0  20
Pullman        58  89  53  90  56  92 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Lewiston       71  98  65  98  68  99 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Colville       61  92  57  94  62  93 /   0  10   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      55  83  49  88  54  86 /  10  10  10   0  10  20
Kellogg        61  83  52  88  57  87 /  10  10  10   0   0  20
Moses Lake     71  97  66  98  67 102 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      74  98  72  99  72 100 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           66  96  63  97  65  97 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning until 1 PM PDT Sunday for East Washington
     Northeast (Zone 686).

     Red Flag Warning until 3 PM PDT Sunday for East Washington
     Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington Okanogan/Methow
     Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 050032
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
532 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the Independence Day
weekend. Saturday night into Sunday winds will shift to the north
and increase as a front sags in from Canada. Aside from isolated
shower chances toward the Idaho Panhandle, conditions looking dry
and warm into the first half of next week. A slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms returns late next week.

&&
.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Saturday: The Inland NW will be in a west to
northwest flow through the middle of next week. This will be
accompanied by the occasional shortwave passage with breezy to
windy conditions and minor shower chances. Toward later next week
low pressure off the California coast begins to shift inland,
bringing the potential for more scattered showers and
thunderstorms. As a whole the pattern remains dry, with moderating
but still above normal temperatures.

Between tonight and Sunday night the first shortwave crosses the
Inland NW. That feature was dropping across BC this afternoon and
it`ll usher the cold front across the Canadian border this
evening. This will lead to strengthening northerly winds through
the evening into Sunday. Just in time to heighten the concern
around the Fourth of July evening, speeds will be or rise into in
the breezy category. Directions turn north-northwest over much of
the region Saturday night, before they gradually shift north-
northeast into Sunday. We will continue to see some channeling and
higher winds down the Okanogan Valley and out through the Purcell
Trench. Speeds then begin to subside Sunday afternoon and
especially Sunday night.

There is a marginal increase in layer moisture and instability
along the front and just ahead of the mid-level shortwave,
especially toward the ID/MT border. Look for a band of clouds to
drop by Saturday evening into Sunday morning, with slight
shower/thunderstorm chances along the ID/MT border. For Sunday
afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances will continue across
portions of the lower Panhandle, including southeast Shoshone
county and possibly toward the Camas Prairie. However in that
latter region confidence is very low. In general, however, a
reinforcing shot of drier air starts to spread down from Canada
overnight into Sunday just on the heels of the mid-level
shortwave. So most of the region will stay precipitation-free.

Between Monday night and Tuesday night the second substantial
shortwave drops through. This system carries slightly more
moisture and instability and overall has a better threat of
showers and thunderstorms. Some clouds increase Monday night,
with the threat for a few showers nudging toward the northern
Panhandle. The better chances develop across the northern
mountains through northern Panhandle going into Tuesday
afternoon, before waning through the evening and overnight.

From Wednesday to Saturday the pattern begins to evolve a bit,
with low pressure off the CA coast migrates inland through the end
of the week. Some instability wraps around the mountains, while
the deeper Columbia Basin remains relatively stable. Where models
disagree is over whether how much energy coming around that
incoming low drifts north into our region to bring at least an
isolated shower and thunderstorm threat. Through Thursday most
models keep the threat south of the region of just into our
Blues/Camas Prairie. The GFS brings chances into the Cascades by
Thursday, but for now this seems an outlier. By next Friday into
Saturday better chances come to the southeast WA and the lower
Panhandle and move up along the ID/MT border, with a few solutions
wrapping some threat back across the northern WA mountains.
Overall look for an increasing threat going into the end of next
week. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A cold front sags in this evening, with a few more
middle clouds. A more notable feature will be strengthening winds
at some TAF sites, especially away from PUW/LWS. The first
increase is expected this evening, followed by a second surge late
Saturday night/Sunday morning. Speeds near 15 to 25kts with gusts
toward 30 to 35kts will be possible, especially toward COE and MWH
with that second surge. Winds are expected to slowly decrease
later in the day Sunday, but gusts toward 20 to 25kts will be
possible even after 18-20Z. Expect some elevated layers of smoke from
regional wildfires. All TAF sites will be dry and VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag Warnings continue for portions of the central and
northeast Washington through early to mid Sunday afternoon. A dry
cold front is projected to drop southward from Canada between
6 to 10 pm tonight, which will increase winds and gusts across
the region. The biggest concern remains gusts of 30 to 40 mph
and a fair amount dry air coming behind the frontal passage,
especially at around 850mb (or 4000 feet). Poor recoveries are
expected in the mountains and potentially the valleys should this
drier air mix in. We should rise above the critical RH thresholds
briefly near 5 AM but drop again. The strength of the sustained
winds is expected to wane after about 20-22Z (1 to 3 PM). General
winds improve into the remainder of the week, but RHs values
remain low through, with continued above normal temperatures.

There will be slight thunderstorm chances around Tuesday in the
northern mountains and a broader, but still slight, shower and
thunderstorm threat arrives toward the end of next week as low
pressure off the CA coast starts to move inland. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  89  61  91  67  93 /   0  10   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  62  85  57  89  61  90 /   0  10  10   0   0  20
Pullman        58  89  53  90  56  92 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Lewiston       71  98  65  98  68  99 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Colville       61  92  57  94  62  93 /   0  10   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      55  83  49  88  54  86 /  10  10  10   0  10  20
Kellogg        61  83  52  88  57  87 /  10  10  10   0   0  20
Moses Lake     71  97  66  98  67 102 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      74  98  72  99  72 100 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           66  96  63  97  65  97 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning until 1 PM PDT Sunday for East Washington
     Northeast (Zone 686).

     Red Flag Warning until 3 PM PDT Sunday for East Washington
     Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington Okanogan/Methow
     Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 050032
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
532 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the Independence Day
weekend. Saturday night into Sunday winds will shift to the north
and increase as a front sags in from Canada. Aside from isolated
shower chances toward the Idaho Panhandle, conditions looking dry
and warm into the first half of next week. A slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms returns late next week.

&&
.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Saturday: The Inland NW will be in a west to
northwest flow through the middle of next week. This will be
accompanied by the occasional shortwave passage with breezy to
windy conditions and minor shower chances. Toward later next week
low pressure off the California coast begins to shift inland,
bringing the potential for more scattered showers and
thunderstorms. As a whole the pattern remains dry, with moderating
but still above normal temperatures.

Between tonight and Sunday night the first shortwave crosses the
Inland NW. That feature was dropping across BC this afternoon and
it`ll usher the cold front across the Canadian border this
evening. This will lead to strengthening northerly winds through
the evening into Sunday. Just in time to heighten the concern
around the Fourth of July evening, speeds will be or rise into in
the breezy category. Directions turn north-northwest over much of
the region Saturday night, before they gradually shift north-
northeast into Sunday. We will continue to see some channeling and
higher winds down the Okanogan Valley and out through the Purcell
Trench. Speeds then begin to subside Sunday afternoon and
especially Sunday night.

There is a marginal increase in layer moisture and instability
along the front and just ahead of the mid-level shortwave,
especially toward the ID/MT border. Look for a band of clouds to
drop by Saturday evening into Sunday morning, with slight
shower/thunderstorm chances along the ID/MT border. For Sunday
afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances will continue across
portions of the lower Panhandle, including southeast Shoshone
county and possibly toward the Camas Prairie. However in that
latter region confidence is very low. In general, however, a
reinforcing shot of drier air starts to spread down from Canada
overnight into Sunday just on the heels of the mid-level
shortwave. So most of the region will stay precipitation-free.

Between Monday night and Tuesday night the second substantial
shortwave drops through. This system carries slightly more
moisture and instability and overall has a better threat of
showers and thunderstorms. Some clouds increase Monday night,
with the threat for a few showers nudging toward the northern
Panhandle. The better chances develop across the northern
mountains through northern Panhandle going into Tuesday
afternoon, before waning through the evening and overnight.

From Wednesday to Saturday the pattern begins to evolve a bit,
with low pressure off the CA coast migrates inland through the end
of the week. Some instability wraps around the mountains, while
the deeper Columbia Basin remains relatively stable. Where models
disagree is over whether how much energy coming around that
incoming low drifts north into our region to bring at least an
isolated shower and thunderstorm threat. Through Thursday most
models keep the threat south of the region of just into our
Blues/Camas Prairie. The GFS brings chances into the Cascades by
Thursday, but for now this seems an outlier. By next Friday into
Saturday better chances come to the southeast WA and the lower
Panhandle and move up along the ID/MT border, with a few solutions
wrapping some threat back across the northern WA mountains.
Overall look for an increasing threat going into the end of next
week. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A cold front sags in this evening, with a few more
middle clouds. A more notable feature will be strengthening winds
at some TAF sites, especially away from PUW/LWS. The first
increase is expected this evening, followed by a second surge late
Saturday night/Sunday morning. Speeds near 15 to 25kts with gusts
toward 30 to 35kts will be possible, especially toward COE and MWH
with that second surge. Winds are expected to slowly decrease
later in the day Sunday, but gusts toward 20 to 25kts will be
possible even after 18-20Z. Expect some elevated layers of smoke from
regional wildfires. All TAF sites will be dry and VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag Warnings continue for portions of the central and
northeast Washington through early to mid Sunday afternoon. A dry
cold front is projected to drop southward from Canada between
6 to 10 pm tonight, which will increase winds and gusts across
the region. The biggest concern remains gusts of 30 to 40 mph
and a fair amount dry air coming behind the frontal passage,
especially at around 850mb (or 4000 feet). Poor recoveries are
expected in the mountains and potentially the valleys should this
drier air mix in. We should rise above the critical RH thresholds
briefly near 5 AM but drop again. The strength of the sustained
winds is expected to wane after about 20-22Z (1 to 3 PM). General
winds improve into the remainder of the week, but RHs values
remain low through, with continued above normal temperatures.

There will be slight thunderstorm chances around Tuesday in the
northern mountains and a broader, but still slight, shower and
thunderstorm threat arrives toward the end of next week as low
pressure off the CA coast starts to move inland. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  89  61  91  67  93 /   0  10   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  62  85  57  89  61  90 /   0  10  10   0   0  20
Pullman        58  89  53  90  56  92 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Lewiston       71  98  65  98  68  99 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Colville       61  92  57  94  62  93 /   0  10   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      55  83  49  88  54  86 /  10  10  10   0  10  20
Kellogg        61  83  52  88  57  87 /  10  10  10   0   0  20
Moses Lake     71  97  66  98  67 102 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      74  98  72  99  72 100 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           66  96  63  97  65  97 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning until 1 PM PDT Sunday for East Washington
     Northeast (Zone 686).

     Red Flag Warning until 3 PM PDT Sunday for East Washington
     Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington Okanogan/Methow
     Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSEW 042156
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WARM SPELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH
NEARS THE AREA AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. THE COAST WILL
ALSO HEAT UP ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH EXPANDS WWD
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK TO LIGHT
ONSHORE MONDAY OR TUESDAY SOME COASTAL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
DEVELOP AND THE COAST SHOULD COOL DOWN. INLAND AREAS WILL SEE THE
WARM STRETCH CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...THE WARMTH CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK. A COOLING
TREND SHOULD START THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH NEARS THE
AREA AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. THE 12Z GFS IS
SLOW AND WEAK AND SPLITS AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH COMPARED
TO EARLIER RUNS...AND THE SRN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH SIMPLY
REPLACES AN OLD CUT OFF LOW THAT HAS BEEN OFF NRN CALIF FOR AWHILE
NOW. AS THAT OLD CALIF CUT OFF LOW KICKS INLAND SOME
SHOWERS SHOULD GO INTO ERN OREGON AND MAYBE ERN WA LATE IN THE WEEK
BUT WRN WA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS IS
FAIRLY LIKELY FOR WRN WA LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH
HAVING SHIFTED WELL INLAND AND WRN WA TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
WESTERN WA IS NW. THE AIR MASS IS DRY. HIGH PRES AND OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR ON SUN FOR VFR CONDITIONS. 33

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT N WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 33

&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND SUN AS A THERMAL
TROUGH OF LOW PRES FORMS ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS OF
10 TO 20 KT OVER THE INTERIOR WATERS ON SUN. THE FLOW WILL FLIP BACK
TO ONSHORE MON AND TUE AS LOW PRES SHIFTS INLAND. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE GOOD NEWS FOR FIREWORKS-RELATED ACTIVITIES IS
THAT BREEZES IN THE MAJOR POPULATION CENTERS WILL BE LIGHT. THAT IS
ABOUT ALL THE GOOD NEWS THERE IS. NE GRADIENTS WILL BE PICKING UP
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND PEAKING AROUND SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. THE
BELLINGHAM-WILLIAMS LAKE B.C. GRADIENT IS ALREADY -6.8 MB AND
STRENGTHENING. BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THIS WILL INITIATE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF GUSTY NE WINDS IN THE NORTH CASCADES...WITH MARBLEMOUNT LIKELY
BEING DRY AND WINDY OVERNIGHT (THAT IS NORMALLY A CALM AND HUMID
LOCATION AT NIGHT). OVERNIGHT...NE WINDS WILL KICK IN OVER WESTERN
WHATCOM COUNTY...THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS...AND THE NW OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. THIS WILL USHER IN A WARM AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS
WITH SOME PLACES EXPERIENCING DECREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
OVERNIGHT. THE MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
MORNING...DURING A PERIOD BEFORE WINDS DIE DOWN BUT AFTER RH HAS
DROPPED FOR THE DAY. THE NE WINDS WILL USHER IN HOT TEMPERATURES ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST...WITH FORKS EXPECTING A HIGH OF 92 DEGREES ON
SUNDAY.

MOST OF THE PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS WILL SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROP
INTO THE 18-30 PERCENT RANGE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THAT RANGE IS
ABOUT AS DRY AS WE GET AROUND HERE. MEANWHILE...THE PUGET SOUND
LOWLANDS ALONG AND WEST OF I-5...ESPECIALLY THE KITSAP
PENINSULA...SHOULD HAVE N-NE WINDS OF 10-15 MPH EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS OF THAT MODEST MAGNITUDE WITH SUCH LOW HUMIDITY AND
SUCH DRY FUELS COULD REALLY PUSH GRASS FIRES ALONG QUICKLY...
ESPECIALLY WHERE WIND AND SLOPE ALIGN. A RED FLAG WARNING IS BEING
ISSUED TO HANDLE THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ON SUNDAY.

LASTLY...THE MID-LEVEL HAINES INDEX WILL BE IN THE 5-6 RANGE ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS INDICATES A DRY AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER. FIRES BURNING AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 2000 FEET
UNDER SUCH CONDITIONS CAN BECOME ROWDY AND PLUME-DOMINATED.

WITH SUCH HOT AND DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH FUELS THAT
ARE UNPRECEDENTEDLY DRY FOR SO EARLY IN FIRE SEASON...PLEASE BE
CAREFUL WITH FLAMMABLE MATERIALS. THE CONDITIONS THIS FOURTH OF JULY
ARE FAR BEYOND THE LEVEL OF FIRE DANGER THAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED IN
THE LIFETIME OF MANY WHO WILL BE PLAYING WITH FIREWORKS THIS
WEEKEND. BY THE SAME TOKEN...FIREFIGHTERS RESPONDING TO WILDLAND
FIRES SHOULD EXPECT UNUSUALLY VOLATILE CONDITIONS AND FIGHT FIRE
HAVING PROVIDED FOR SAFETY FIRST.HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
 PARTS OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE




000
FXUS66 KSEW 042156
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WARM SPELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH
NEARS THE AREA AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. THE COAST WILL
ALSO HEAT UP ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH EXPANDS WWD
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK TO LIGHT
ONSHORE MONDAY OR TUESDAY SOME COASTAL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
DEVELOP AND THE COAST SHOULD COOL DOWN. INLAND AREAS WILL SEE THE
WARM STRETCH CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...THE WARMTH CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK. A COOLING
TREND SHOULD START THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH NEARS THE
AREA AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. THE 12Z GFS IS
SLOW AND WEAK AND SPLITS AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH COMPARED
TO EARLIER RUNS...AND THE SRN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH SIMPLY
REPLACES AN OLD CUT OFF LOW THAT HAS BEEN OFF NRN CALIF FOR AWHILE
NOW. AS THAT OLD CALIF CUT OFF LOW KICKS INLAND SOME
SHOWERS SHOULD GO INTO ERN OREGON AND MAYBE ERN WA LATE IN THE WEEK
BUT WRN WA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS IS
FAIRLY LIKELY FOR WRN WA LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH
HAVING SHIFTED WELL INLAND AND WRN WA TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
WESTERN WA IS NW. THE AIR MASS IS DRY. HIGH PRES AND OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR ON SUN FOR VFR CONDITIONS. 33

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT N WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 33

&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND SUN AS A THERMAL
TROUGH OF LOW PRES FORMS ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS OF
10 TO 20 KT OVER THE INTERIOR WATERS ON SUN. THE FLOW WILL FLIP BACK
TO ONSHORE MON AND TUE AS LOW PRES SHIFTS INLAND. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE GOOD NEWS FOR FIREWORKS-RELATED ACTIVITIES IS
THAT BREEZES IN THE MAJOR POPULATION CENTERS WILL BE LIGHT. THAT IS
ABOUT ALL THE GOOD NEWS THERE IS. NE GRADIENTS WILL BE PICKING UP
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND PEAKING AROUND SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. THE
BELLINGHAM-WILLIAMS LAKE B.C. GRADIENT IS ALREADY -6.8 MB AND
STRENGTHENING. BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THIS WILL INITIATE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF GUSTY NE WINDS IN THE NORTH CASCADES...WITH MARBLEMOUNT LIKELY
BEING DRY AND WINDY OVERNIGHT (THAT IS NORMALLY A CALM AND HUMID
LOCATION AT NIGHT). OVERNIGHT...NE WINDS WILL KICK IN OVER WESTERN
WHATCOM COUNTY...THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS...AND THE NW OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. THIS WILL USHER IN A WARM AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS
WITH SOME PLACES EXPERIENCING DECREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
OVERNIGHT. THE MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
MORNING...DURING A PERIOD BEFORE WINDS DIE DOWN BUT AFTER RH HAS
DROPPED FOR THE DAY. THE NE WINDS WILL USHER IN HOT TEMPERATURES ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST...WITH FORKS EXPECTING A HIGH OF 92 DEGREES ON
SUNDAY.

MOST OF THE PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS WILL SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROP
INTO THE 18-30 PERCENT RANGE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THAT RANGE IS
ABOUT AS DRY AS WE GET AROUND HERE. MEANWHILE...THE PUGET SOUND
LOWLANDS ALONG AND WEST OF I-5...ESPECIALLY THE KITSAP
PENINSULA...SHOULD HAVE N-NE WINDS OF 10-15 MPH EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS OF THAT MODEST MAGNITUDE WITH SUCH LOW HUMIDITY AND
SUCH DRY FUELS COULD REALLY PUSH GRASS FIRES ALONG QUICKLY...
ESPECIALLY WHERE WIND AND SLOPE ALIGN. A RED FLAG WARNING IS BEING
ISSUED TO HANDLE THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ON SUNDAY.

LASTLY...THE MID-LEVEL HAINES INDEX WILL BE IN THE 5-6 RANGE ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS INDICATES A DRY AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER. FIRES BURNING AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 2000 FEET
UNDER SUCH CONDITIONS CAN BECOME ROWDY AND PLUME-DOMINATED.

WITH SUCH HOT AND DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH FUELS THAT
ARE UNPRECEDENTEDLY DRY FOR SO EARLY IN FIRE SEASON...PLEASE BE
CAREFUL WITH FLAMMABLE MATERIALS. THE CONDITIONS THIS FOURTH OF JULY
ARE FAR BEYOND THE LEVEL OF FIRE DANGER THAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED IN
THE LIFETIME OF MANY WHO WILL BE PLAYING WITH FIREWORKS THIS
WEEKEND. BY THE SAME TOKEN...FIREFIGHTERS RESPONDING TO WILDLAND
FIRES SHOULD EXPECT UNUSUALLY VOLATILE CONDITIONS AND FIGHT FIRE
HAVING PROVIDED FOR SAFETY FIRST.HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
 PARTS OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE




000
FXUS66 KSEW 042156
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WARM SPELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH
NEARS THE AREA AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. THE COAST WILL
ALSO HEAT UP ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH EXPANDS WWD
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK TO LIGHT
ONSHORE MONDAY OR TUESDAY SOME COASTAL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
DEVELOP AND THE COAST SHOULD COOL DOWN. INLAND AREAS WILL SEE THE
WARM STRETCH CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...THE WARMTH CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK. A COOLING
TREND SHOULD START THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH NEARS THE
AREA AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. THE 12Z GFS IS
SLOW AND WEAK AND SPLITS AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH COMPARED
TO EARLIER RUNS...AND THE SRN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH SIMPLY
REPLACES AN OLD CUT OFF LOW THAT HAS BEEN OFF NRN CALIF FOR AWHILE
NOW. AS THAT OLD CALIF CUT OFF LOW KICKS INLAND SOME
SHOWERS SHOULD GO INTO ERN OREGON AND MAYBE ERN WA LATE IN THE WEEK
BUT WRN WA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS IS
FAIRLY LIKELY FOR WRN WA LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH
HAVING SHIFTED WELL INLAND AND WRN WA TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
WESTERN WA IS NW. THE AIR MASS IS DRY. HIGH PRES AND OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR ON SUN FOR VFR CONDITIONS. 33

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT N WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 33

&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND SUN AS A THERMAL
TROUGH OF LOW PRES FORMS ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS OF
10 TO 20 KT OVER THE INTERIOR WATERS ON SUN. THE FLOW WILL FLIP BACK
TO ONSHORE MON AND TUE AS LOW PRES SHIFTS INLAND. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE GOOD NEWS FOR FIREWORKS-RELATED ACTIVITIES IS
THAT BREEZES IN THE MAJOR POPULATION CENTERS WILL BE LIGHT. THAT IS
ABOUT ALL THE GOOD NEWS THERE IS. NE GRADIENTS WILL BE PICKING UP
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND PEAKING AROUND SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. THE
BELLINGHAM-WILLIAMS LAKE B.C. GRADIENT IS ALREADY -6.8 MB AND
STRENGTHENING. BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THIS WILL INITIATE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF GUSTY NE WINDS IN THE NORTH CASCADES...WITH MARBLEMOUNT LIKELY
BEING DRY AND WINDY OVERNIGHT (THAT IS NORMALLY A CALM AND HUMID
LOCATION AT NIGHT). OVERNIGHT...NE WINDS WILL KICK IN OVER WESTERN
WHATCOM COUNTY...THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS...AND THE NW OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. THIS WILL USHER IN A WARM AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS
WITH SOME PLACES EXPERIENCING DECREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
OVERNIGHT. THE MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
MORNING...DURING A PERIOD BEFORE WINDS DIE DOWN BUT AFTER RH HAS
DROPPED FOR THE DAY. THE NE WINDS WILL USHER IN HOT TEMPERATURES ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST...WITH FORKS EXPECTING A HIGH OF 92 DEGREES ON
SUNDAY.

MOST OF THE PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS WILL SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROP
INTO THE 18-30 PERCENT RANGE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THAT RANGE IS
ABOUT AS DRY AS WE GET AROUND HERE. MEANWHILE...THE PUGET SOUND
LOWLANDS ALONG AND WEST OF I-5...ESPECIALLY THE KITSAP
PENINSULA...SHOULD HAVE N-NE WINDS OF 10-15 MPH EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS OF THAT MODEST MAGNITUDE WITH SUCH LOW HUMIDITY AND
SUCH DRY FUELS COULD REALLY PUSH GRASS FIRES ALONG QUICKLY...
ESPECIALLY WHERE WIND AND SLOPE ALIGN. A RED FLAG WARNING IS BEING
ISSUED TO HANDLE THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ON SUNDAY.

LASTLY...THE MID-LEVEL HAINES INDEX WILL BE IN THE 5-6 RANGE ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS INDICATES A DRY AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER. FIRES BURNING AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 2000 FEET
UNDER SUCH CONDITIONS CAN BECOME ROWDY AND PLUME-DOMINATED.

WITH SUCH HOT AND DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH FUELS THAT
ARE UNPRECEDENTEDLY DRY FOR SO EARLY IN FIRE SEASON...PLEASE BE
CAREFUL WITH FLAMMABLE MATERIALS. THE CONDITIONS THIS FOURTH OF JULY
ARE FAR BEYOND THE LEVEL OF FIRE DANGER THAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED IN
THE LIFETIME OF MANY WHO WILL BE PLAYING WITH FIREWORKS THIS
WEEKEND. BY THE SAME TOKEN...FIREFIGHTERS RESPONDING TO WILDLAND
FIRES SHOULD EXPECT UNUSUALLY VOLATILE CONDITIONS AND FIGHT FIRE
HAVING PROVIDED FOR SAFETY FIRST.HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
 PARTS OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE




000
FXUS66 KSEW 042156
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WARM SPELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH
NEARS THE AREA AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. THE COAST WILL
ALSO HEAT UP ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH EXPANDS WWD
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK TO LIGHT
ONSHORE MONDAY OR TUESDAY SOME COASTAL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
DEVELOP AND THE COAST SHOULD COOL DOWN. INLAND AREAS WILL SEE THE
WARM STRETCH CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...THE WARMTH CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK. A COOLING
TREND SHOULD START THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH NEARS THE
AREA AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. THE 12Z GFS IS
SLOW AND WEAK AND SPLITS AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH COMPARED
TO EARLIER RUNS...AND THE SRN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH SIMPLY
REPLACES AN OLD CUT OFF LOW THAT HAS BEEN OFF NRN CALIF FOR AWHILE
NOW. AS THAT OLD CALIF CUT OFF LOW KICKS INLAND SOME
SHOWERS SHOULD GO INTO ERN OREGON AND MAYBE ERN WA LATE IN THE WEEK
BUT WRN WA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS IS
FAIRLY LIKELY FOR WRN WA LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH
HAVING SHIFTED WELL INLAND AND WRN WA TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
WESTERN WA IS NW. THE AIR MASS IS DRY. HIGH PRES AND OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR ON SUN FOR VFR CONDITIONS. 33

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT N WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 33

&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND SUN AS A THERMAL
TROUGH OF LOW PRES FORMS ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS OF
10 TO 20 KT OVER THE INTERIOR WATERS ON SUN. THE FLOW WILL FLIP BACK
TO ONSHORE MON AND TUE AS LOW PRES SHIFTS INLAND. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE GOOD NEWS FOR FIREWORKS-RELATED ACTIVITIES IS
THAT BREEZES IN THE MAJOR POPULATION CENTERS WILL BE LIGHT. THAT IS
ABOUT ALL THE GOOD NEWS THERE IS. NE GRADIENTS WILL BE PICKING UP
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND PEAKING AROUND SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. THE
BELLINGHAM-WILLIAMS LAKE B.C. GRADIENT IS ALREADY -6.8 MB AND
STRENGTHENING. BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THIS WILL INITIATE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF GUSTY NE WINDS IN THE NORTH CASCADES...WITH MARBLEMOUNT LIKELY
BEING DRY AND WINDY OVERNIGHT (THAT IS NORMALLY A CALM AND HUMID
LOCATION AT NIGHT). OVERNIGHT...NE WINDS WILL KICK IN OVER WESTERN
WHATCOM COUNTY...THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS...AND THE NW OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. THIS WILL USHER IN A WARM AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS
WITH SOME PLACES EXPERIENCING DECREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
OVERNIGHT. THE MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
MORNING...DURING A PERIOD BEFORE WINDS DIE DOWN BUT AFTER RH HAS
DROPPED FOR THE DAY. THE NE WINDS WILL USHER IN HOT TEMPERATURES ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST...WITH FORKS EXPECTING A HIGH OF 92 DEGREES ON
SUNDAY.

MOST OF THE PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS WILL SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROP
INTO THE 18-30 PERCENT RANGE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THAT RANGE IS
ABOUT AS DRY AS WE GET AROUND HERE. MEANWHILE...THE PUGET SOUND
LOWLANDS ALONG AND WEST OF I-5...ESPECIALLY THE KITSAP
PENINSULA...SHOULD HAVE N-NE WINDS OF 10-15 MPH EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS OF THAT MODEST MAGNITUDE WITH SUCH LOW HUMIDITY AND
SUCH DRY FUELS COULD REALLY PUSH GRASS FIRES ALONG QUICKLY...
ESPECIALLY WHERE WIND AND SLOPE ALIGN. A RED FLAG WARNING IS BEING
ISSUED TO HANDLE THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ON SUNDAY.

LASTLY...THE MID-LEVEL HAINES INDEX WILL BE IN THE 5-6 RANGE ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS INDICATES A DRY AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER. FIRES BURNING AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 2000 FEET
UNDER SUCH CONDITIONS CAN BECOME ROWDY AND PLUME-DOMINATED.

WITH SUCH HOT AND DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH FUELS THAT
ARE UNPRECEDENTEDLY DRY FOR SO EARLY IN FIRE SEASON...PLEASE BE
CAREFUL WITH FLAMMABLE MATERIALS. THE CONDITIONS THIS FOURTH OF JULY
ARE FAR BEYOND THE LEVEL OF FIRE DANGER THAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED IN
THE LIFETIME OF MANY WHO WILL BE PLAYING WITH FIREWORKS THIS
WEEKEND. BY THE SAME TOKEN...FIREFIGHTERS RESPONDING TO WILDLAND
FIRES SHOULD EXPECT UNUSUALLY VOLATILE CONDITIONS AND FIGHT FIRE
HAVING PROVIDED FOR SAFETY FIRST.HANER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
 PARTS OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE




000
FXUS66 KOTX 042137
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
237 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the Independence Day
weekend. Saturday night into Sunday winds will shift to the north
and increase as a front sags in from Canada. Aside from isolated
shower chances toward the Idaho Panhandle, conditions looking dry
and warm into the first half of next week. A slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms returns late next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday: The Inland NW will be in a west to
northwest flow through the middle of next week. This will be
accompanied by the occasional shortwave passage with breezy to
windy conditions and minor shower chances. Toward later next week
low pressure off the California coast begins to shift inland,
bringing the potential for more scattered showers and
thunderstorms. As a whole the pattern remains dry, with moderating
but still above normal temperatures.

Between tonight and Sunday night the first shortwave crosses the
Inland NW. That feature was dropping across BC this afternoon and
it`ll usher the cold front across the Canadian border this
evening. This will lead to strengthening northerly winds through
the evening into Sunday. Just in time to heighten the concern
around the Fourth of July evening, speeds will be or rise into in
the breezy category. Directions turn north-northwest over much of
the region Saturday night, before they gradually shift north-
northeast into Sunday. We will continue to see some channeling and
higher winds down the Okanogan Valley and out through the Purcell
Trench. Speeds then begin to subside Sunday afternoon and
especially Sunday night.

There is a marginal increase in layer moisture and instability
along the front and just ahead of the mid-level shortwave,
especially toward the ID/MT border. Look for a band of clouds to
drop by Saturday evening into Sunday morning, with slight
shower/thunderstorm chances along the ID/MT border. For Sunday
afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances will continue across
portions of the lower Panhandle, including southeast Shoshone
county and possibly toward the Camas Prairie. However in that
latter region confidence is very low. In general, however, a
reinforcing shot of drier air starts to spread down from Canada
overnight into Sunday just on the heels of the mid-level
shortwave. So most of the region will stay precipitation-free.

Between Monday night and Tuesday night the second substantial
shortwave drops through. This system carries slightly more
moisture and instability and overall has a better threat of
showers and thunderstorms. Some clouds increase Monday night,
with the threat for a few showers nudging toward the northern
Panhandle. The better chances develop across the northern
mountains through northern Panhandle going into Tuesday
afternoon, before waning through the evening and overnight.

From Wednesday to Saturday the pattern begins to evolve a bit,
with low pressure off the CA coast migrates inland through the end
of the week. Some instability wraps around the mountains, while
the deeper Columbia Basin remains relatively stable. Where models
disagree is over whether how much energy coming around that
incoming low drifts north into our region to bring at least an
isolated shower and thunderstorm threat. Through Thursday most
models keep the threat south of the region of just into our
Blues/Camas Prairie. The GFS brings chances into the Cascades by
Thursday, but for now this seems an outlier. By next Friday into
Saturday better chances come to the southeast WA and the lower
Panhandle and move up along the ID/MT border, with a few solutions
wrapping some threat back across the northern WA mountains.
Overall look for an increasing threat going into the end of next
week. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A cold front sags in later Saturday evening, with a few
more middle to high clouds. A more notable feature will be
strengthening winds at some TAF sites, especially away from
PUW/LWS. The first increase is expected this evening, followed by
a second surge late Saturday night/Sunday morning. Speeds near 15
to 25kts with gusts toward 30 to 35kts will be possible,
especially toward COE and MWH with that second surge. Winds are
expected to slowly decrease later in the day Sunday, but gusts
toward 20 to 25kts will be possible even after 18-20Z. Expect some
elevated some layers from regional wildfires. Otherwise TAF sites
will be dry and VFR. /J. Cote`

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag Warnings continue for portions of the central and
northeast Washington through early to mid Sunday afternoon. A dry
cold front is projected to drop southward from Canada between
6 to 10 pm tonight, which will increase winds and gusts across
the region. The biggest concern remains gusts of 30 to 40 mph
and a fair amount dry air coming behind the frontal passage,
especially at around 850mb (or 4000 feet). Poor recoveries are
expected in the mountains and potentially the valleys should this
drier air mix in. We should rise above the critical RH thresholds
briefly near 5 AM but drop again. The strength of the sustained
winds is expected to wane after about 20-22Z (1 to 3 PM). General
winds improve into the remainder of the week, but RHs values
remain low through, with continued above normal temperatures.

There will be slight thunderstorm chances around Tuesday in the
northern mountains and a broader, but still slight, shower and
thunderstorm threat arrives toward the end of next week as low
pressure off the CA coast starts to move inland. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  89  61  91  67  93 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  62  85  57  89  61  90 /  10  10  10   0   0  20
Pullman        58  89  53  90  56  92 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Lewiston       71  98  65  98  68  99 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Colville       61  92  57  94  62  93 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      55  83  49  88  54  86 /  10  10  10   0  10  20
Kellogg        61  83  52  88  57  87 /  10  10  10   0   0  20
Moses Lake     71  97  66  98  67 102 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      74  98  72  99  72 100 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           66  96  63  97  65  97 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning until 1 PM PDT Sunday for East Washington
     Northeast (Zone 686).

     Red Flag Warning until 3 PM PDT Sunday for East Washington
     Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington Okanogan/Methow
     Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 042137
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
237 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the Independence Day
weekend. Saturday night into Sunday winds will shift to the north
and increase as a front sags in from Canada. Aside from isolated
shower chances toward the Idaho Panhandle, conditions looking dry
and warm into the first half of next week. A slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms returns late next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday: The Inland NW will be in a west to
northwest flow through the middle of next week. This will be
accompanied by the occasional shortwave passage with breezy to
windy conditions and minor shower chances. Toward later next week
low pressure off the California coast begins to shift inland,
bringing the potential for more scattered showers and
thunderstorms. As a whole the pattern remains dry, with moderating
but still above normal temperatures.

Between tonight and Sunday night the first shortwave crosses the
Inland NW. That feature was dropping across BC this afternoon and
it`ll usher the cold front across the Canadian border this
evening. This will lead to strengthening northerly winds through
the evening into Sunday. Just in time to heighten the concern
around the Fourth of July evening, speeds will be or rise into in
the breezy category. Directions turn north-northwest over much of
the region Saturday night, before they gradually shift north-
northeast into Sunday. We will continue to see some channeling and
higher winds down the Okanogan Valley and out through the Purcell
Trench. Speeds then begin to subside Sunday afternoon and
especially Sunday night.

There is a marginal increase in layer moisture and instability
along the front and just ahead of the mid-level shortwave,
especially toward the ID/MT border. Look for a band of clouds to
drop by Saturday evening into Sunday morning, with slight
shower/thunderstorm chances along the ID/MT border. For Sunday
afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances will continue across
portions of the lower Panhandle, including southeast Shoshone
county and possibly toward the Camas Prairie. However in that
latter region confidence is very low. In general, however, a
reinforcing shot of drier air starts to spread down from Canada
overnight into Sunday just on the heels of the mid-level
shortwave. So most of the region will stay precipitation-free.

Between Monday night and Tuesday night the second substantial
shortwave drops through. This system carries slightly more
moisture and instability and overall has a better threat of
showers and thunderstorms. Some clouds increase Monday night,
with the threat for a few showers nudging toward the northern
Panhandle. The better chances develop across the northern
mountains through northern Panhandle going into Tuesday
afternoon, before waning through the evening and overnight.

From Wednesday to Saturday the pattern begins to evolve a bit,
with low pressure off the CA coast migrates inland through the end
of the week. Some instability wraps around the mountains, while
the deeper Columbia Basin remains relatively stable. Where models
disagree is over whether how much energy coming around that
incoming low drifts north into our region to bring at least an
isolated shower and thunderstorm threat. Through Thursday most
models keep the threat south of the region of just into our
Blues/Camas Prairie. The GFS brings chances into the Cascades by
Thursday, but for now this seems an outlier. By next Friday into
Saturday better chances come to the southeast WA and the lower
Panhandle and move up along the ID/MT border, with a few solutions
wrapping some threat back across the northern WA mountains.
Overall look for an increasing threat going into the end of next
week. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A cold front sags in later Saturday evening, with a few
more middle to high clouds. A more notable feature will be
strengthening winds at some TAF sites, especially away from
PUW/LWS. The first increase is expected this evening, followed by
a second surge late Saturday night/Sunday morning. Speeds near 15
to 25kts with gusts toward 30 to 35kts will be possible,
especially toward COE and MWH with that second surge. Winds are
expected to slowly decrease later in the day Sunday, but gusts
toward 20 to 25kts will be possible even after 18-20Z. Expect some
elevated some layers from regional wildfires. Otherwise TAF sites
will be dry and VFR. /J. Cote`

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag Warnings continue for portions of the central and
northeast Washington through early to mid Sunday afternoon. A dry
cold front is projected to drop southward from Canada between
6 to 10 pm tonight, which will increase winds and gusts across
the region. The biggest concern remains gusts of 30 to 40 mph
and a fair amount dry air coming behind the frontal passage,
especially at around 850mb (or 4000 feet). Poor recoveries are
expected in the mountains and potentially the valleys should this
drier air mix in. We should rise above the critical RH thresholds
briefly near 5 AM but drop again. The strength of the sustained
winds is expected to wane after about 20-22Z (1 to 3 PM). General
winds improve into the remainder of the week, but RHs values
remain low through, with continued above normal temperatures.

There will be slight thunderstorm chances around Tuesday in the
northern mountains and a broader, but still slight, shower and
thunderstorm threat arrives toward the end of next week as low
pressure off the CA coast starts to move inland. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  89  61  91  67  93 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  62  85  57  89  61  90 /  10  10  10   0   0  20
Pullman        58  89  53  90  56  92 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Lewiston       71  98  65  98  68  99 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Colville       61  92  57  94  62  93 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      55  83  49  88  54  86 /  10  10  10   0  10  20
Kellogg        61  83  52  88  57  87 /  10  10  10   0   0  20
Moses Lake     71  97  66  98  67 102 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      74  98  72  99  72 100 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           66  96  63  97  65  97 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning until 1 PM PDT Sunday for East Washington
     Northeast (Zone 686).

     Red Flag Warning until 3 PM PDT Sunday for East Washington
     Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington Okanogan/Methow
     Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 042130 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP INLAND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MAY SPIN
SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COOLING LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...NOT A LOT OF CHANGES OF CONSEQUENCE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT SW...
ACROSS SW OREGON...TO OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE REGION. MODEL H8 TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 22
DEG C RANGE THROUGH TUE AND UPPER HEIGHTS DIMINISH ONLY SLIGHTLY.
WINDS ALONG THE COAST EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY THIS
EVENING...AND NE OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD TEND TO INHIBIT MARINE CLOUD
REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ESP ON THE N PART OF THE COAST. GFS...NAM
AND ECWMF ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW A SWITCH TO A SSW WIND MOVING UP THE
COAST SUN AND SUN EVENING...SPREADING MARINE CLOUDS BACK UP THE
COAST. THIS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER ON THE COAST A BIT
SUN BUT GIVEN THE HIGH HEIGHTS ALOFT THE INLAND IMPACT APPEARS
LIKELY TO BE SMALL. WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST TEMPS
THROUGH TUE...WITH INLAND HIGHS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
90S. WITH THE CONTINUED HOT DAYTIME TEMPS AND MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WILL EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH TUE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN TODAYS 12Z RUNS TENDS TO SHIFT N A
LITTLE MON AND TUE INTO NW OREGON. AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER LOW
OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT E A BIT WHICH ALLOWS
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FAR S PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO OPEN UP TO THE S. FORECAST MODELS SOUNDINGS IN THE S
CASCADES MON REMAIN STABLE LOOKING...BUT BY TUE AFTERNOON AIR MASS
IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES BEGINS TO LOOK POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE.
WILL DROP THE MENTION OF CONVECTION ON MON...BUT KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES TUE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REX BLOCK REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST COAST
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN LATER THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON WHEN THIS WILL ACTUALLY BREAK DOWN...BUT ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN BY
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK IN THE LANE
COUNTY CASCADES AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BUT
ELSEWHERE LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON
WITH STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT IFR/MVFR STRATUS TO
REDEVELOP AT THE COAST BY AROUND 06Z THIS EVENING AND PERSIST INTO
MID MORNING SUN. VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN FOR INTERIOR TAF
SITES. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY SUN.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST TONIGHT AND SUN. THIS WILL WEAKEN
THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS AND LEAD TO A SLACKENING IN THE
WINDS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KT TOMORROW. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
REVERSAL WILL ALSO OCCUR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN MOSTLY AT 15 KT OR LOWER THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

THE BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SOMEWHAT CHOPPY CONDITIONS WITH SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE
AND FRESH SWELL DOMINATED SEAS. SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS REMAIN
7 TO 9 FT WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 9 SEC. EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE
BELOW 5 FT SUN AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE SLACKENING
WINDS. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...  HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS
IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
     VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD
     RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF
     WESTERN OREGON.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD
     OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 042130 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP INLAND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MAY SPIN
SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COOLING LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...NOT A LOT OF CHANGES OF CONSEQUENCE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT SW...
ACROSS SW OREGON...TO OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE REGION. MODEL H8 TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 22
DEG C RANGE THROUGH TUE AND UPPER HEIGHTS DIMINISH ONLY SLIGHTLY.
WINDS ALONG THE COAST EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY THIS
EVENING...AND NE OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD TEND TO INHIBIT MARINE CLOUD
REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ESP ON THE N PART OF THE COAST. GFS...NAM
AND ECWMF ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW A SWITCH TO A SSW WIND MOVING UP THE
COAST SUN AND SUN EVENING...SPREADING MARINE CLOUDS BACK UP THE
COAST. THIS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER ON THE COAST A BIT
SUN BUT GIVEN THE HIGH HEIGHTS ALOFT THE INLAND IMPACT APPEARS
LIKELY TO BE SMALL. WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST TEMPS
THROUGH TUE...WITH INLAND HIGHS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
90S. WITH THE CONTINUED HOT DAYTIME TEMPS AND MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WILL EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH TUE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN TODAYS 12Z RUNS TENDS TO SHIFT N A
LITTLE MON AND TUE INTO NW OREGON. AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER LOW
OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT E A BIT WHICH ALLOWS
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FAR S PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO OPEN UP TO THE S. FORECAST MODELS SOUNDINGS IN THE S
CASCADES MON REMAIN STABLE LOOKING...BUT BY TUE AFTERNOON AIR MASS
IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES BEGINS TO LOOK POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE.
WILL DROP THE MENTION OF CONVECTION ON MON...BUT KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES TUE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REX BLOCK REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST COAST
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN LATER THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON WHEN THIS WILL ACTUALLY BREAK DOWN...BUT ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN BY
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK IN THE LANE
COUNTY CASCADES AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BUT
ELSEWHERE LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON
WITH STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT IFR/MVFR STRATUS TO
REDEVELOP AT THE COAST BY AROUND 06Z THIS EVENING AND PERSIST INTO
MID MORNING SUN. VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN FOR INTERIOR TAF
SITES. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY SUN.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST TONIGHT AND SUN. THIS WILL WEAKEN
THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS AND LEAD TO A SLACKENING IN THE
WINDS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KT TOMORROW. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
REVERSAL WILL ALSO OCCUR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN MOSTLY AT 15 KT OR LOWER THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

THE BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SOMEWHAT CHOPPY CONDITIONS WITH SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE
AND FRESH SWELL DOMINATED SEAS. SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS REMAIN
7 TO 9 FT WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 9 SEC. EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE
BELOW 5 FT SUN AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE SLACKENING
WINDS. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...  HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS
IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
     VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN
     OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD
     RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF
     WESTERN OREGON.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD
     OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 042120
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
221 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP INLAND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MAY SPIN
SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COOLING LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...NOT A LOT OF CHANGES OF CONSEQUENCE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT SW...
ACROSS SW OREGON...TO OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE REGION. MODEL H8 TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 22
DEG C RANGE THROUGH TUE AND UPPER HEIGHTS DIMINISH ONLY SLIGHTLY.
WINDS ALONG THE COAST EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY THIS
EVENING...AND NE OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD TEND TO INHIBIT MARINE CLOUD
REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ESP ON THE N PART OF THE COAST. GFS...NAM
AND ECWMF ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW A SWITCH TO A SSW WIND MOVING UP THE
COAST SUN AND SUN EVENING...SPREADING MARINE CLOUDS BACK UP THE
COAST. THIS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER ON THE COAST A BIT
SUN BUT GIVEN THE HIGH HEIGHTS ALOFT THE INLAND IMPACT APPEARS
LIKELY TO BE SMALL. WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST TEMPS
THROUGH TUE...WITH INLAND HIGHS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
90S. WITH THE CONTINUED HOT DAYTIME TEMPS AND MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WILL EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH TUE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN TODAYS 12Z RUNS TENDS TO SHIFT N A
LITTLE MON AND TUE INTO NW OREGON. AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER LOW
OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT E A BIT WHICH ALLOWS
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FAR S PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO OPEN UP TO THE S. FORECAST MODELS SOUNDINGS IN THE S
CASCADES MON REMAIN STABLE LOOKING...BUT BY TUE AFTERNOON AIR MASS
IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES BEGINS TO LOOK POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE.
WILL DROP THE MENTION OF CONVECTION ON MON...BUT KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES TUE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REX BLOCK REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST COAST
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN LATER THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON WHEN THIS WILL ACTUALLY BREAK DOWN...BUT ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN BY
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK IN THE LANE
COUNTY CASCADES AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BUT
ELSEWHERE LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON
WITH STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT IFR/MVFR STRATUS TO
REDEVELOP AT THE COAST BY AROUND 06Z THIS EVENING AND PERSIST INTO
MID MORNING SUN. VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN FOR INTERIOR TAF
SITES. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY SUN.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST TONIGHT AND SUN. THIS WILL WEAKEN
THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS AND LEAD TO A SLACKENING IN THE
WINDS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KT TOMORROW. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
REVERSAL WILL ALSO OCCUR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN MOSTLY AT 15 KT OR LOWER THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

THE BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SOMEWHAT CHOPPY CONDITIONS WITH SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE
AND FRESH SWELL DOMINATED SEAS. SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS REMAIN
7 TO 8 FT WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 9 SEC. ALTHOUGH STILL A BIT
CHOPPY...CONDITIONS NO LONGER MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT SUN AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
RESPONSE TO THE SLACKENING WINDS. PYLE



&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 042120
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
221 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP INLAND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MAY SPIN
SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COOLING LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...NOT A LOT OF CHANGES OF CONSEQUENCE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT SW...
ACROSS SW OREGON...TO OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE REGION. MODEL H8 TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 22
DEG C RANGE THROUGH TUE AND UPPER HEIGHTS DIMINISH ONLY SLIGHTLY.
WINDS ALONG THE COAST EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY THIS
EVENING...AND NE OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD TEND TO INHIBIT MARINE CLOUD
REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ESP ON THE N PART OF THE COAST. GFS...NAM
AND ECWMF ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW A SWITCH TO A SSW WIND MOVING UP THE
COAST SUN AND SUN EVENING...SPREADING MARINE CLOUDS BACK UP THE
COAST. THIS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER ON THE COAST A BIT
SUN BUT GIVEN THE HIGH HEIGHTS ALOFT THE INLAND IMPACT APPEARS
LIKELY TO BE SMALL. WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST TEMPS
THROUGH TUE...WITH INLAND HIGHS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
90S. WITH THE CONTINUED HOT DAYTIME TEMPS AND MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WILL EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH TUE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN TODAYS 12Z RUNS TENDS TO SHIFT N A
LITTLE MON AND TUE INTO NW OREGON. AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER LOW
OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT E A BIT WHICH ALLOWS
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FAR S PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO OPEN UP TO THE S. FORECAST MODELS SOUNDINGS IN THE S
CASCADES MON REMAIN STABLE LOOKING...BUT BY TUE AFTERNOON AIR MASS
IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES BEGINS TO LOOK POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE.
WILL DROP THE MENTION OF CONVECTION ON MON...BUT KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES TUE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REX BLOCK REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST COAST
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN LATER THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON WHEN THIS WILL ACTUALLY BREAK DOWN...BUT ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN BY
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK IN THE LANE
COUNTY CASCADES AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BUT
ELSEWHERE LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON
WITH STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT IFR/MVFR STRATUS TO
REDEVELOP AT THE COAST BY AROUND 06Z THIS EVENING AND PERSIST INTO
MID MORNING SUN. VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN FOR INTERIOR TAF
SITES. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY SUN.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST TONIGHT AND SUN. THIS WILL WEAKEN
THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS AND LEAD TO A SLACKENING IN THE
WINDS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KT TOMORROW. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
REVERSAL WILL ALSO OCCUR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN MOSTLY AT 15 KT OR LOWER THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

THE BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SOMEWHAT CHOPPY CONDITIONS WITH SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE
AND FRESH SWELL DOMINATED SEAS. SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS REMAIN
7 TO 8 FT WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 9 SEC. ALTHOUGH STILL A BIT
CHOPPY...CONDITIONS NO LONGER MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT SUN AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
RESPONSE TO THE SLACKENING WINDS. PYLE



&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 041824
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1124 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the Independence Day
weekend. Today winds will shift to the north and increase as a
front sags in from Canada. Breezy conditions continue on Sunday.
It is still looking dry and warm into the beginning of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update to make some changes to the current suite of red
flag warnings. Main changes were to extend the current highlights
into Sunday for areas stretching from Okanogan County into the
Western Basin and add the northeastern mountains of Washington.

The dry cold front will push southward through the region this
evening between 6-10PM increasing wind gusts across the region.
The concerning components of this front are the potential for wind
gusts 30-40 mph and the degree of dry air coming in behind the
fropa. RH`s at 850mb or roughly 4000 feet are expected to dip
between 10-20%. This will likely lead to little to no recoveries
in the mountains and if this mixes down into the valleys, should
also result in poor recoveries into Sunday morning. I believe we
will creep out of critical humidity thresholds some by 5AM but
return early Sunday morning...several hours before peak heating
and combine with ongoing breezy N/NE winds.

As for the NE mountains, I think the most critical periods will
be this evening and overnight for similar reasoning stated above.
Most uncertainty will be with humidity recovery Sunday morning and
how fast this drops after sunrise to combine with the last push of
NE winds before waning in the afternoon. This highlight may need
to come down earlier but ran it through 1PM to see how conditions
are in the morning. Notice, we do not expect this to continue to
into peak heating when most humidities are at the lowest. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A cold front sags in later Saturday evening, with a few
more middle to high clouds. A more notable feature will be
strengthening winds at some TAF sites, especially away from
PUW/LWS. The first increase is expected later afternoon to early
evening, followed by a second surge late Saturday night/Sunday
morning. Speeds near 15 to 25kts with gusts toward 30 to 35kts
will be possible, especially toward COE and MWH with that second
surge. Expect some elevated some layers from regional wildfires.
Otherwise TAF sites will be dry and VFR. /J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  89  61  91  67 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  95  62  85  57  89  61 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Pullman        94  59  89  53  90  56 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Lewiston      103  71  98  65  98  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville      100  61  92  57  94  62 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      94  54  83  49  88  54 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Kellogg        94  61  83  52  88  57 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake    102  71  97  66  98  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee     103  75  98  72  99  72 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak          100  66  96  63  97  65 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 PM PDT Sunday for
     East Washington Northeast (Zone 686).

     Red Flag Warning until 3 PM PDT Sunday for East Washington
     Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East Washington Okanogan
     Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington Okanogan/Methow
     Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KPQR 041611
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
912 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP INLAND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MAY SPIN
SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COOLING LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. INCREASED ONSHORE
FLOW FRI EVENING LIKELY RESULTED IN A LITTLE COOLING TO THE AIR
MASS...AS REFLECTED IN 12Z SLE SOUNDING H8 TEMP DOWN TO 19 DEG C
THIS MORNING. THIS EXPECTED TO HELP TAKE A FEW DEGREES OFF THE HIGH
TEMPS TODAY. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OVER SW OREGON SPREAD SOME HIGH
CLOUDS UP INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...WHICH ALSO MAY HELP CUT A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF THE HIGHS
IN THE SOUTH TODAY. MARINE CLOUDS WERE RATHER LIMITED THIS
MORNING...MAINLY INTO THE COASTAL RIVER VALLEYS. WITH THE LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP RELATIVELY QUICKLY
TODAY.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...TONIGHT SHOULD BE
WARMER AGAIN WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS EXPECTED AGAIN SUN
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY FURTHER WEAKEN ONSHORE GRADIENTS...SHOVING THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WA/N OR COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER VERY
HOT DAY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO MARINE INFLUENCE EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH 850 MB TEMPS REMAINING +20 TO +22 DEG C AND
LITTLE TO NO MARINE INVERSION...TEMPS SHOULD APPROACH 100 DEGREES
AGAIN FOR SOME OF OUR INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS.

WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE BEING SHOVED OFFSHORE AND AN OVERALL WEAK
SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN ODDS ARE GOOD THAT A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATER SUN/SUN NIGHT...AND THE 00Z NAM
AND 4KM WRF-ARW SHOW THIS. WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAINING WELL INTO
THE 580S IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR EVEN A STRONG SOUTHERLY SURGE TO BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING RELIEF FROM THE HEAT INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR SUN NIGHT/MON IS EUGENE...BUT IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. OVERALL AIR MASS ALOFT CHANGES LITTLE
MONDAY...SO BARRING A DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY MARINE PUSH THAN
EXPECTED...MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT ONE WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE
90S INLAND. THOUGHT ABOUT EXTENDING THE HEAT ADVISORY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF TO GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE IMPACT
THE SOUTHERLY SURGE WILL OR WILL NOT HAVE INLAND.

MEANWHILE A CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OFF THE CA COAST...BUT 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SUGGEST IT WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY TO
BRING THUNDER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY CHANGE IF THE UPPER
LOW WOBBLES A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER
COL REMAINING OVER OREGON TUE AND WED FOR CONTINUED HOT WEATHER. THIS
ALSO LEAVES THE S CASCADES OPEN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ALOFT
SNEAKING UP FROM THE S...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES BOTH TUE AND WED. MODELS
AT THIS POINT ARE SUGGESTING SOME RELIEF TO THE EXTENDED HEAT WAVE
COMING LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW CUTOFF OFF THE CA COAST
MOVES INLAND OVER CA POTENTIALLY BRINGING A DEEPER SW PUSH OF MARINE
AIR INLAND. MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN STATES
IS THEN REINFORCED FRI AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN OFF THE N PACIFIC
FOR EVEN COOLER AIR. WILL TREND TEMPS DOWNWARD A LITTLE MORE FOR THU
AND FRI GIVEN DECENT AGREEMENT IN MODELS WITH THIS TYPE OF
SOLUTION...BUT STILL HOLD SOME RESERVATIONS IN BUYING COMPLETELY INTO
THE CHANGE AS MODELS TEND TO STRUGGLE WITH CUTOFF LOWS ESP THIS FAR
INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. PATCHY IFR/MVFR
MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING SHOULD BE GONE BY NO
LATER THAN 18Z. THEN EXPECT VFR TO REMAIN AT THE COAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS EVENING. MVFR/IFR COASTAL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
REFORM BY AROUND 06Z. VFR WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL INLAND FOR THE
NEXT 24 HRS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC AND THERMAL LOW PRES INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE FURTHER OFFSHORE BUT REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE THERMAL LOW PRES WILL MOVE WESTWARD
LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE
WATERS. THE FCST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A SOUTHERLY WIND
REVERSAL WILL OCCUR SOMETIME SUN.

EXPECT PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
CONTINUE TODAY WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT AND A DOMINANT
PERIOD AROUND 8 SECONDS. LOOKS LIKE HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER ZONE TODAY PRIMARILY WEST OF ABOUT
30 NM. SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS WEEKEND AS WINDS
SLACKEN...REACHING AROUND 4 TO 5 FT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. PYLE/26

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 041611
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
912 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP INLAND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MAY SPIN
SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COOLING LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. INCREASED ONSHORE
FLOW FRI EVENING LIKELY RESULTED IN A LITTLE COOLING TO THE AIR
MASS...AS REFLECTED IN 12Z SLE SOUNDING H8 TEMP DOWN TO 19 DEG C
THIS MORNING. THIS EXPECTED TO HELP TAKE A FEW DEGREES OFF THE HIGH
TEMPS TODAY. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OVER SW OREGON SPREAD SOME HIGH
CLOUDS UP INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...WHICH ALSO MAY HELP CUT A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF THE HIGHS
IN THE SOUTH TODAY. MARINE CLOUDS WERE RATHER LIMITED THIS
MORNING...MAINLY INTO THE COASTAL RIVER VALLEYS. WITH THE LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP RELATIVELY QUICKLY
TODAY.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...TONIGHT SHOULD BE
WARMER AGAIN WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS EXPECTED AGAIN SUN
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY FURTHER WEAKEN ONSHORE GRADIENTS...SHOVING THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WA/N OR COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER VERY
HOT DAY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO MARINE INFLUENCE EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH 850 MB TEMPS REMAINING +20 TO +22 DEG C AND
LITTLE TO NO MARINE INVERSION...TEMPS SHOULD APPROACH 100 DEGREES
AGAIN FOR SOME OF OUR INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS.

WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE BEING SHOVED OFFSHORE AND AN OVERALL WEAK
SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN ODDS ARE GOOD THAT A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATER SUN/SUN NIGHT...AND THE 00Z NAM
AND 4KM WRF-ARW SHOW THIS. WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAINING WELL INTO
THE 580S IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR EVEN A STRONG SOUTHERLY SURGE TO BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING RELIEF FROM THE HEAT INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR SUN NIGHT/MON IS EUGENE...BUT IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. OVERALL AIR MASS ALOFT CHANGES LITTLE
MONDAY...SO BARRING A DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY MARINE PUSH THAN
EXPECTED...MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT ONE WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE
90S INLAND. THOUGHT ABOUT EXTENDING THE HEAT ADVISORY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF TO GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE IMPACT
THE SOUTHERLY SURGE WILL OR WILL NOT HAVE INLAND.

MEANWHILE A CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OFF THE CA COAST...BUT 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SUGGEST IT WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY TO
BRING THUNDER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY CHANGE IF THE UPPER
LOW WOBBLES A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER
COL REMAINING OVER OREGON TUE AND WED FOR CONTINUED HOT WEATHER. THIS
ALSO LEAVES THE S CASCADES OPEN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ALOFT
SNEAKING UP FROM THE S...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES BOTH TUE AND WED. MODELS
AT THIS POINT ARE SUGGESTING SOME RELIEF TO THE EXTENDED HEAT WAVE
COMING LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW CUTOFF OFF THE CA COAST
MOVES INLAND OVER CA POTENTIALLY BRINGING A DEEPER SW PUSH OF MARINE
AIR INLAND. MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN STATES
IS THEN REINFORCED FRI AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN OFF THE N PACIFIC
FOR EVEN COOLER AIR. WILL TREND TEMPS DOWNWARD A LITTLE MORE FOR THU
AND FRI GIVEN DECENT AGREEMENT IN MODELS WITH THIS TYPE OF
SOLUTION...BUT STILL HOLD SOME RESERVATIONS IN BUYING COMPLETELY INTO
THE CHANGE AS MODELS TEND TO STRUGGLE WITH CUTOFF LOWS ESP THIS FAR
INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. PATCHY IFR/MVFR
MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING SHOULD BE GONE BY NO
LATER THAN 18Z. THEN EXPECT VFR TO REMAIN AT THE COAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS EVENING. MVFR/IFR COASTAL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
REFORM BY AROUND 06Z. VFR WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL INLAND FOR THE
NEXT 24 HRS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC AND THERMAL LOW PRES INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE FURTHER OFFSHORE BUT REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE THERMAL LOW PRES WILL MOVE WESTWARD
LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE
WATERS. THE FCST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A SOUTHERLY WIND
REVERSAL WILL OCCUR SOMETIME SUN.

EXPECT PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
CONTINUE TODAY WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT AND A DOMINANT
PERIOD AROUND 8 SECONDS. LOOKS LIKE HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER ZONE TODAY PRIMARILY WEST OF ABOUT
30 NM. SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS WEEKEND AS WINDS
SLACKEN...REACHING AROUND 4 TO 5 FT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. PYLE/26

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 041601
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WARM SPELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH
NEARS THE AREA AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN THE COAST WILL WARM UP ON SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH EXPANDS WWD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR INLAND AREAS
SEATTLE SOUTHWARD. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN MONDAY. HIGHS WILL
COOL 10-15 DEGREES AT THE COAST AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR THE COAST AGAIN BUT THE INTERIOR OF
WRN WA WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM.

.LONG TERM...THE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY TO REMAIN WEAK. A COOLING TREND
SHOULD START THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH NEARS THE AREA.
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OFF CALIF IS SHOWN SHIFTING OVER NRN
CALIF THU AND FRI...WITH SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS OREGON. THERE ARE
ALSO SHOWERS SHOWN OVER B.C. ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN UPPER TROUGH
FRI AND SAT...BUT WRN WA IS MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA. THE FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN
WA IS W/NW. THE AIR MASS IS DRY. SKIES ARE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR PATCHY
LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST...BUT THESE CLOUDS
WILL ERODE LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRES AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT AND SUN FOR VFR CONDITIONS.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT N WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 33

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS TODAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER B.C. MODELS SHOW N/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT
OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS - A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH NOON TODAY.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND SUN AS A THERMAL TROUGH OF
LOW PRES FORMS ALONG THE COAST. THE FLOW WILL FLIP BACK TO ONSHORE
MON AND TUE AS LOW PRES SHIFTS INLAND. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
 PARTS OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
    FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER FROM 10 NM OUT TO 60 NM UNTIL NOON
TODAY.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE



000
FXUS66 KSEW 041601
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WARM SPELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH
NEARS THE AREA AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN THE COAST WILL WARM UP ON SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH EXPANDS WWD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR INLAND AREAS
SEATTLE SOUTHWARD. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN MONDAY. HIGHS WILL
COOL 10-15 DEGREES AT THE COAST AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR THE COAST AGAIN BUT THE INTERIOR OF
WRN WA WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM.

.LONG TERM...THE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY TO REMAIN WEAK. A COOLING TREND
SHOULD START THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH NEARS THE AREA.
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OFF CALIF IS SHOWN SHIFTING OVER NRN
CALIF THU AND FRI...WITH SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS OREGON. THERE ARE
ALSO SHOWERS SHOWN OVER B.C. ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN UPPER TROUGH
FRI AND SAT...BUT WRN WA IS MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA. THE FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN
WA IS W/NW. THE AIR MASS IS DRY. SKIES ARE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR PATCHY
LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST...BUT THESE CLOUDS
WILL ERODE LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRES AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT AND SUN FOR VFR CONDITIONS.

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT N WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 33

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS TODAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER B.C. MODELS SHOW N/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT
OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS - A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH NOON TODAY.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND SUN AS A THERMAL TROUGH OF
LOW PRES FORMS ALONG THE COAST. THE FLOW WILL FLIP BACK TO ONSHORE
MON AND TUE AS LOW PRES SHIFTS INLAND. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
 PARTS OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
    FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER FROM 10 NM OUT TO 60 NM UNTIL NOON
TODAY.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE




000
FXUS66 KOTX 041127
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
427 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the Independence Day
weekend. Today winds will shift to the north and increase as a
front sags in from Canada. Breezy conditions continue on Sunday.
It is still looking dry and warm into the beginning of next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday...A dry cold front will sag south across the
Inland Northwest later today, bringing increasing northerly winds
to the Okanogan Valley late this morning that will spill out into
the Waterville Plateau and western Columbia Basin by around noon.
Winds will continue to increase during the afternoon and early
evening hours with sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts to 35
mph. This will combine with very low relative humidity to produce
critical fire weather conditions. The Red Flag Warning remains in
effect for these areas, FWZ673, 684 and 687, through 10 pm. The
Northeast WA fire districts will see lighter winds during peak
daytime heating (and minimum RH) so the decision was made to not
expand the warning to FWZ686. It will still be hot and dry, but
winds will be less of a concern. There will be almost no
precipitation with this front so temperatures will remain hot.
Expect readings a few degrees cooler than Friday`s numbers, which
will still be well above seasonal normals.

As the front pivots through the forecast area tonight, the focus
will shift to northeast Washington and the northern panhandle of
Idaho. There may even be an isolated thunderstorm or two for the
northern panhandle mountains early Sunday morning but confidence
is low. The winds continue to be the main concern. Northeast winds
will be channeled down the Purcell trench into the west plains.
Fortunately, the winds will be increasing during the overnight
hours while relative humidity is recovering. There is a low
probability of critical winds and low RH for Sunday afternoon but
for now it looks like RHs will recover a bit behind the front as
slightly cooler air arrives from the north. temperatures will cool
a bit with some of the northern valley locations in the 80s. We
will continue to re-evaluate expected fire weather conditions with
the next forecast package. /Kelch

Sunday night through Saturday...The models are in decent agreement
handling the current weather pattern(s). Deep low pressure
centers anchor the end points in the Gulf of Alaska and in the
vicinity of Hudson Bay. In between high pressure will build in the
eastern Pacific. This will put the Inland northwest in a northwest
to northerly flow through about Wednesday, depending on what model
you like. a weather disturbance moving through the northerly flow
will clip the northeast zones Tuesday and Tuesday night. Behind
that disturbance high pressure will build back into the Pac NW
through Thursday in response to the Gulf of Alaska low moving into
the eastern Pacific. By Friday night/Saturday the models are
hinting that the Gulf of Alaska low will move into position just
off the coast.

Sunday night to Monday night expect a slight rebound of the
temperatures and a continued dry forecast gusty winds from Sunday
will decrease and remain out of the northwest.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...increased moisture with the aforementioned
short wave will tap into both surface based and mid level
instability and result in a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
These storms will be focused along the northeast Washington
mountains and the north Idaho Panhandle. The convection should be
isolated at best, but any lightning after this extended period of
dry weather will result in potential fire starts. The remainder of
the region will remain dry with temperatures 8-12 degrees above
normal. Another thing we will need to keep an eye on will be
increased winds down the Okanogan valley Tuesday. At this time it
doesn`t look like a strong front but winds will be on the
increase.

Wednesday and Thursday another transient ridge axis will track
across the area for a period of very warm and dry conditions.

Friday and Saturday things may get interesting. All of the model
guidance is indicating the upper low will move to just off the
Washington coast in some form or other. This is the a very good
pattern east of the Cascades for a convective outbreak as
southerly flow will tap into fairly deep sub-tropical moisture. If
this pattern verifies there will be a chance for thunderstorms
both Friday ad Saturday. Thunderstorms possibly starting off high
in the atmosphere for virga, little precipitation, and gusty
outflow winds on Friday and Friday night...then becoming much
wetter Saturday. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A dry airmass will allow for VFR conditions at all TAF
sites. Winds at KEAT will remain occasionally breezy through
this afternoon. Elevated smoke layers from area wildfires will
appear as thin mid level clouds but surface visibility will not be
affected. Northerly winds will pick up aft 00z along the Canadian
border and push south through the evening hours towards KGEG KCOE
and KMWH. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  89  61  91  67 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  95  62  85  57  89  61 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Pullman        94  59  89  53  90  56 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Lewiston      103  71  98  65  98  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville      100  61  92  57  94  62 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      94  54  83  49  88  54 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Kellogg        94  61  83  52  88  57 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake    102  71  97  66  98  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee     103  75  98  72  99  72 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak          100  66  96  63  97  65 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning from Noon today to 10 PM PDT this evening for
     East Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 041127
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
427 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the Independence Day
weekend. Today winds will shift to the north and increase as a
front sags in from Canada. Breezy conditions continue on Sunday.
It is still looking dry and warm into the beginning of next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday...A dry cold front will sag south across the
Inland Northwest later today, bringing increasing northerly winds
to the Okanogan Valley late this morning that will spill out into
the Waterville Plateau and western Columbia Basin by around noon.
Winds will continue to increase during the afternoon and early
evening hours with sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts to 35
mph. This will combine with very low relative humidity to produce
critical fire weather conditions. The Red Flag Warning remains in
effect for these areas, FWZ673, 684 and 687, through 10 pm. The
Northeast WA fire districts will see lighter winds during peak
daytime heating (and minimum RH) so the decision was made to not
expand the warning to FWZ686. It will still be hot and dry, but
winds will be less of a concern. There will be almost no
precipitation with this front so temperatures will remain hot.
Expect readings a few degrees cooler than Friday`s numbers, which
will still be well above seasonal normals.

As the front pivots through the forecast area tonight, the focus
will shift to northeast Washington and the northern panhandle of
Idaho. There may even be an isolated thunderstorm or two for the
northern panhandle mountains early Sunday morning but confidence
is low. The winds continue to be the main concern. Northeast winds
will be channeled down the Purcell trench into the west plains.
Fortunately, the winds will be increasing during the overnight
hours while relative humidity is recovering. There is a low
probability of critical winds and low RH for Sunday afternoon but
for now it looks like RHs will recover a bit behind the front as
slightly cooler air arrives from the north. temperatures will cool
a bit with some of the northern valley locations in the 80s. We
will continue to re-evaluate expected fire weather conditions with
the next forecast package. /Kelch

Sunday night through Saturday...The models are in decent agreement
handling the current weather pattern(s). Deep low pressure
centers anchor the end points in the Gulf of Alaska and in the
vicinity of Hudson Bay. In between high pressure will build in the
eastern Pacific. This will put the Inland northwest in a northwest
to northerly flow through about Wednesday, depending on what model
you like. a weather disturbance moving through the northerly flow
will clip the northeast zones Tuesday and Tuesday night. Behind
that disturbance high pressure will build back into the Pac NW
through Thursday in response to the Gulf of Alaska low moving into
the eastern Pacific. By Friday night/Saturday the models are
hinting that the Gulf of Alaska low will move into position just
off the coast.

Sunday night to Monday night expect a slight rebound of the
temperatures and a continued dry forecast gusty winds from Sunday
will decrease and remain out of the northwest.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...increased moisture with the aforementioned
short wave will tap into both surface based and mid level
instability and result in a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
These storms will be focused along the northeast Washington
mountains and the north Idaho Panhandle. The convection should be
isolated at best, but any lightning after this extended period of
dry weather will result in potential fire starts. The remainder of
the region will remain dry with temperatures 8-12 degrees above
normal. Another thing we will need to keep an eye on will be
increased winds down the Okanogan valley Tuesday. At this time it
doesn`t look like a strong front but winds will be on the
increase.

Wednesday and Thursday another transient ridge axis will track
across the area for a period of very warm and dry conditions.

Friday and Saturday things may get interesting. All of the model
guidance is indicating the upper low will move to just off the
Washington coast in some form or other. This is the a very good
pattern east of the Cascades for a convective outbreak as
southerly flow will tap into fairly deep sub-tropical moisture. If
this pattern verifies there will be a chance for thunderstorms
both Friday ad Saturday. Thunderstorms possibly starting off high
in the atmosphere for virga, little precipitation, and gusty
outflow winds on Friday and Friday night...then becoming much
wetter Saturday. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A dry airmass will allow for VFR conditions at all TAF
sites. Winds at KEAT will remain occasionally breezy through
this afternoon. Elevated smoke layers from area wildfires will
appear as thin mid level clouds but surface visibility will not be
affected. Northerly winds will pick up aft 00z along the Canadian
border and push south through the evening hours towards KGEG KCOE
and KMWH. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  89  61  91  67 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  95  62  85  57  89  61 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Pullman        94  59  89  53  90  56 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Lewiston      103  71  98  65  98  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville      100  61  92  57  94  62 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      94  54  83  49  88  54 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Kellogg        94  61  83  52  88  57 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake    102  71  97  66  98  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee     103  75  98  72  99  72 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak          100  66  96  63  97  65 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning from Noon today to 10 PM PDT this evening for
     East Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 041127
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
427 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the Independence Day
weekend. Today winds will shift to the north and increase as a
front sags in from Canada. Breezy conditions continue on Sunday.
It is still looking dry and warm into the beginning of next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday...A dry cold front will sag south across the
Inland Northwest later today, bringing increasing northerly winds
to the Okanogan Valley late this morning that will spill out into
the Waterville Plateau and western Columbia Basin by around noon.
Winds will continue to increase during the afternoon and early
evening hours with sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts to 35
mph. This will combine with very low relative humidity to produce
critical fire weather conditions. The Red Flag Warning remains in
effect for these areas, FWZ673, 684 and 687, through 10 pm. The
Northeast WA fire districts will see lighter winds during peak
daytime heating (and minimum RH) so the decision was made to not
expand the warning to FWZ686. It will still be hot and dry, but
winds will be less of a concern. There will be almost no
precipitation with this front so temperatures will remain hot.
Expect readings a few degrees cooler than Friday`s numbers, which
will still be well above seasonal normals.

As the front pivots through the forecast area tonight, the focus
will shift to northeast Washington and the northern panhandle of
Idaho. There may even be an isolated thunderstorm or two for the
northern panhandle mountains early Sunday morning but confidence
is low. The winds continue to be the main concern. Northeast winds
will be channeled down the Purcell trench into the west plains.
Fortunately, the winds will be increasing during the overnight
hours while relative humidity is recovering. There is a low
probability of critical winds and low RH for Sunday afternoon but
for now it looks like RHs will recover a bit behind the front as
slightly cooler air arrives from the north. temperatures will cool
a bit with some of the northern valley locations in the 80s. We
will continue to re-evaluate expected fire weather conditions with
the next forecast package. /Kelch

Sunday night through Saturday...The models are in decent agreement
handling the current weather pattern(s). Deep low pressure
centers anchor the end points in the Gulf of Alaska and in the
vicinity of Hudson Bay. In between high pressure will build in the
eastern Pacific. This will put the Inland northwest in a northwest
to northerly flow through about Wednesday, depending on what model
you like. a weather disturbance moving through the northerly flow
will clip the northeast zones Tuesday and Tuesday night. Behind
that disturbance high pressure will build back into the Pac NW
through Thursday in response to the Gulf of Alaska low moving into
the eastern Pacific. By Friday night/Saturday the models are
hinting that the Gulf of Alaska low will move into position just
off the coast.

Sunday night to Monday night expect a slight rebound of the
temperatures and a continued dry forecast gusty winds from Sunday
will decrease and remain out of the northwest.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...increased moisture with the aforementioned
short wave will tap into both surface based and mid level
instability and result in a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
These storms will be focused along the northeast Washington
mountains and the north Idaho Panhandle. The convection should be
isolated at best, but any lightning after this extended period of
dry weather will result in potential fire starts. The remainder of
the region will remain dry with temperatures 8-12 degrees above
normal. Another thing we will need to keep an eye on will be
increased winds down the Okanogan valley Tuesday. At this time it
doesn`t look like a strong front but winds will be on the
increase.

Wednesday and Thursday another transient ridge axis will track
across the area for a period of very warm and dry conditions.

Friday and Saturday things may get interesting. All of the model
guidance is indicating the upper low will move to just off the
Washington coast in some form or other. This is the a very good
pattern east of the Cascades for a convective outbreak as
southerly flow will tap into fairly deep sub-tropical moisture. If
this pattern verifies there will be a chance for thunderstorms
both Friday ad Saturday. Thunderstorms possibly starting off high
in the atmosphere for virga, little precipitation, and gusty
outflow winds on Friday and Friday night...then becoming much
wetter Saturday. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A dry airmass will allow for VFR conditions at all TAF
sites. Winds at KEAT will remain occasionally breezy through
this afternoon. Elevated smoke layers from area wildfires will
appear as thin mid level clouds but surface visibility will not be
affected. Northerly winds will pick up aft 00z along the Canadian
border and push south through the evening hours towards KGEG KCOE
and KMWH. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  89  61  91  67 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  95  62  85  57  89  61 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Pullman        94  59  89  53  90  56 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Lewiston      103  71  98  65  98  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville      100  61  92  57  94  62 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      94  54  83  49  88  54 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Kellogg        94  61  83  52  88  57 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake    102  71  97  66  98  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee     103  75  98  72  99  72 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak          100  66  96  63  97  65 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning from Noon today to 10 PM PDT this evening for
     East Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 041127
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
427 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the Independence Day
weekend. Today winds will shift to the north and increase as a
front sags in from Canada. Breezy conditions continue on Sunday.
It is still looking dry and warm into the beginning of next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday...A dry cold front will sag south across the
Inland Northwest later today, bringing increasing northerly winds
to the Okanogan Valley late this morning that will spill out into
the Waterville Plateau and western Columbia Basin by around noon.
Winds will continue to increase during the afternoon and early
evening hours with sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts to 35
mph. This will combine with very low relative humidity to produce
critical fire weather conditions. The Red Flag Warning remains in
effect for these areas, FWZ673, 684 and 687, through 10 pm. The
Northeast WA fire districts will see lighter winds during peak
daytime heating (and minimum RH) so the decision was made to not
expand the warning to FWZ686. It will still be hot and dry, but
winds will be less of a concern. There will be almost no
precipitation with this front so temperatures will remain hot.
Expect readings a few degrees cooler than Friday`s numbers, which
will still be well above seasonal normals.

As the front pivots through the forecast area tonight, the focus
will shift to northeast Washington and the northern panhandle of
Idaho. There may even be an isolated thunderstorm or two for the
northern panhandle mountains early Sunday morning but confidence
is low. The winds continue to be the main concern. Northeast winds
will be channeled down the Purcell trench into the west plains.
Fortunately, the winds will be increasing during the overnight
hours while relative humidity is recovering. There is a low
probability of critical winds and low RH for Sunday afternoon but
for now it looks like RHs will recover a bit behind the front as
slightly cooler air arrives from the north. temperatures will cool
a bit with some of the northern valley locations in the 80s. We
will continue to re-evaluate expected fire weather conditions with
the next forecast package. /Kelch

Sunday night through Saturday...The models are in decent agreement
handling the current weather pattern(s). Deep low pressure
centers anchor the end points in the Gulf of Alaska and in the
vicinity of Hudson Bay. In between high pressure will build in the
eastern Pacific. This will put the Inland northwest in a northwest
to northerly flow through about Wednesday, depending on what model
you like. a weather disturbance moving through the northerly flow
will clip the northeast zones Tuesday and Tuesday night. Behind
that disturbance high pressure will build back into the Pac NW
through Thursday in response to the Gulf of Alaska low moving into
the eastern Pacific. By Friday night/Saturday the models are
hinting that the Gulf of Alaska low will move into position just
off the coast.

Sunday night to Monday night expect a slight rebound of the
temperatures and a continued dry forecast gusty winds from Sunday
will decrease and remain out of the northwest.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...increased moisture with the aforementioned
short wave will tap into both surface based and mid level
instability and result in a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
These storms will be focused along the northeast Washington
mountains and the north Idaho Panhandle. The convection should be
isolated at best, but any lightning after this extended period of
dry weather will result in potential fire starts. The remainder of
the region will remain dry with temperatures 8-12 degrees above
normal. Another thing we will need to keep an eye on will be
increased winds down the Okanogan valley Tuesday. At this time it
doesn`t look like a strong front but winds will be on the
increase.

Wednesday and Thursday another transient ridge axis will track
across the area for a period of very warm and dry conditions.

Friday and Saturday things may get interesting. All of the model
guidance is indicating the upper low will move to just off the
Washington coast in some form or other. This is the a very good
pattern east of the Cascades for a convective outbreak as
southerly flow will tap into fairly deep sub-tropical moisture. If
this pattern verifies there will be a chance for thunderstorms
both Friday ad Saturday. Thunderstorms possibly starting off high
in the atmosphere for virga, little precipitation, and gusty
outflow winds on Friday and Friday night...then becoming much
wetter Saturday. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A dry airmass will allow for VFR conditions at all TAF
sites. Winds at KEAT will remain occasionally breezy through
this afternoon. Elevated smoke layers from area wildfires will
appear as thin mid level clouds but surface visibility will not be
affected. Northerly winds will pick up aft 00z along the Canadian
border and push south through the evening hours towards KGEG KCOE
and KMWH. /EK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  89  61  91  67 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  95  62  85  57  89  61 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Pullman        94  59  89  53  90  56 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Lewiston      103  71  98  65  98  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville      100  61  92  57  94  62 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      94  54  83  49  88  54 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Kellogg        94  61  83  52  88  57 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake    102  71  97  66  98  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee     103  75  98  72  99  72 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak          100  66  96  63  97  65 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning from Noon today to 10 PM PDT this evening for
     East Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 041039
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
339 AM PDT SAT JUL  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP INLAND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MAY SPIN
SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COOLING LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER INLAND THIS MORNING...THANKS IN LARGE PART TO A SURGE IN
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS FRIDAY EVENING. THIS ALLOWED A BIT MORE
MARINE AIR TO PENETRATE INLAND THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. STRATUS
HAS BEEN SPOTTY ALONG THE COAST THUS FAR...BUT 11-3.9UM SATELLITE FOG
PRODUCT IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING UP THE COLUMBIA
TO NEAR KELSO. LOW CLOUDS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR INLAND AS CLARK COUNTY
TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD IN THE
PORTLAND METRO.

THE STRONGER ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO RELAX SOME AS
AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA AND INTO THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. THIS IS LOWERING SFC PRESSURE OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND AND
SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKER ONSHORE GRADIENTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS DOING LITTLE TO COOL OFF THE GENERAL AIR MASS
ACROSS OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON...850 MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO REMAIN IN
THE +20 TO +22 DEG C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY LOWER 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES MAY SHAVE A COUPLE DEGREES OFF
HIGH TEMPS TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE HOT INLAND
WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S. THE LOWER COLUMBIA/KELSO AREA WILL
PROBABLY BE A BIT WARMER TODAY DUE TO THE WEAKER ONSHORE
GRADIENTS...BACK INTO THE 90S AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FRIDAY.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER AGAIN WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS
EXPECTED AGAIN SUN MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY FURTHER WEAKEN ONSHORE
GRADIENTS...SHOVING THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WA/N OR COAST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO MARINE
INFLUENCE EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH 850 MB TEMPS REMAINING
+20 TO +22 DEG C AND LITTLE TO NO MARINE INVERSION...TEMPS SHOULD
APPROACH 100 DEGREES AGAIN FOR SOME OF OUR INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS.

WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE BEING SHOVED OFFSHORE AND AN OVERALL WEAK
SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN ODDS ARE GOOD THAT A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATER SUN/SUN NIGHT...AND THE 00Z NAM
AND 4KM WRF-ARW SHOW THIS. WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAINING WELL INTO
THE 580S IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR EVEN A STRONG SOUTHERLY SURGE TO BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING RELIEF FROM THE HEAT INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR SUN NIGHT/MON IS EUGENE...BUT IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. OVERALL AIR MASS ALOFT CHANGES LITTLE
MONDAY...SO BARRING A DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY MARINE PUSH THAN
EXPECTED...MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT ONE WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE
90S INLAND. THOUGHT ABOUT EXTENDING THE HEAT ADVISORY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF TO GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE IMPACT
THE SOUTHERLY SURGE WILL OR WILL NOT HAVE INLAND.

MEANWHILE A CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OFF THE CA COAST...BUT 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SUGGEST IT WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY TO
BRING THUNDER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY CHANGE IF THE UPPER
LOW WOBBLES A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER
COL REMAINING OVER OREGON TUE AND WED FOR CONTINUED HOT WEATHER. THIS
ALSO LEAVES THE S CASCADES OPEN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ALOFT
SNEAKING UP FROM THE S...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES BOTH TUE AND WED. MODELS
AT THIS POINT ARE SUGGESTING SOME RELIEF TO THE EXTENDED HEAT WAVE
COMING LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW CUTOFF OFF THE CA COAST
MOVES INLAND OVER CA POTENTIALLY BRINGING A DEEPER SW PUSH OF MARINE
AIR INLAND. MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN STATES
IS THEN REINFORCED FRI AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN OFF THE N PACIFIC
FOR EVEN COOLER AIR. WILL TREND TEMPS DOWNWARD A LITTLE MORE FOR THU
AND FRI GIVEN DECENT AGREEMENT IN MODELS WITH THIS TYPE OF
SOLUTION...BUT STILL HOLD SOME RESERVATIONS IN BUYING COMPLETELY INTO
THE CHANGE AS MODELS TEND TO STRUGGLE WITH CUTOFF LOWS ESP THIS FAR
INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HRS UNDER STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
EXPECT LOCAL LOW MVFR TO IFR STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER
GAPS LEADING INLAND THIS MORNING. SO FAR THE STRATUS HAS NEARLY
FILLED IN KAST TO KHQM...BUT IS PATCHY FOR MUCH THE OREGON COAST.
DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO MAKE IT VERY FAR INLAND...MAYBE AS FAR A
KKLS. AFTERNOON BREEZES RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL PERSIST NEXT 24 HRS. THERE MAY BE
SOME STRATUS REACHING THE KPDX AREA BETWEEN 14Z-17Z AND EXPECT IT
WILL BE AROUND 1000 FT IF IT FORMS.  /26

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC AND THERMAL LOW PRES INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE FURTHER OFFSHORE BUT REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE THERMAL LOW PRES WILL MOVE WESTWARD
LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE
WATERS. THE FCST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A SOUTHERLY WIND
REVERSAL WILL OCCUR SOMETIME SUN.

EXPECT PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
CONTINUE TODAY WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT AND A DOMINANT
PERIOD AROUND 8 SECONDS. LOOKS LIKE HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER ZONE TODAY PRIMARILY WEST OF ABOUT
30 NM. SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS WEEKEND AS WINDS
SLACKEN...REACHING AROUND 4 TO 5 FT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. PYLE/26

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 041039
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
339 AM PDT SAT JUL  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP INLAND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MAY SPIN
SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COOLING LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER INLAND THIS MORNING...THANKS IN LARGE PART TO A SURGE IN
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS FRIDAY EVENING. THIS ALLOWED A BIT MORE
MARINE AIR TO PENETRATE INLAND THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. STRATUS
HAS BEEN SPOTTY ALONG THE COAST THUS FAR...BUT 11-3.9UM SATELLITE FOG
PRODUCT IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING UP THE COLUMBIA
TO NEAR KELSO. LOW CLOUDS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR INLAND AS CLARK COUNTY
TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD IN THE
PORTLAND METRO.

THE STRONGER ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO RELAX SOME AS
AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA AND INTO THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. THIS IS LOWERING SFC PRESSURE OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND AND
SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKER ONSHORE GRADIENTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS DOING LITTLE TO COOL OFF THE GENERAL AIR MASS
ACROSS OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON...850 MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO REMAIN IN
THE +20 TO +22 DEG C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY LOWER 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES MAY SHAVE A COUPLE DEGREES OFF
HIGH TEMPS TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE HOT INLAND
WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S. THE LOWER COLUMBIA/KELSO AREA WILL
PROBABLY BE A BIT WARMER TODAY DUE TO THE WEAKER ONSHORE
GRADIENTS...BACK INTO THE 90S AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FRIDAY.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER AGAIN WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS
EXPECTED AGAIN SUN MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY FURTHER WEAKEN ONSHORE
GRADIENTS...SHOVING THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WA/N OR COAST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO MARINE
INFLUENCE EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH 850 MB TEMPS REMAINING
+20 TO +22 DEG C AND LITTLE TO NO MARINE INVERSION...TEMPS SHOULD
APPROACH 100 DEGREES AGAIN FOR SOME OF OUR INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS.

WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE BEING SHOVED OFFSHORE AND AN OVERALL WEAK
SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN ODDS ARE GOOD THAT A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATER SUN/SUN NIGHT...AND THE 00Z NAM
AND 4KM WRF-ARW SHOW THIS. WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAINING WELL INTO
THE 580S IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR EVEN A STRONG SOUTHERLY SURGE TO BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING RELIEF FROM THE HEAT INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR SUN NIGHT/MON IS EUGENE...BUT IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. OVERALL AIR MASS ALOFT CHANGES LITTLE
MONDAY...SO BARRING A DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY MARINE PUSH THAN
EXPECTED...MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT ONE WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE
90S INLAND. THOUGHT ABOUT EXTENDING THE HEAT ADVISORY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF TO GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE IMPACT
THE SOUTHERLY SURGE WILL OR WILL NOT HAVE INLAND.

MEANWHILE A CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OFF THE CA COAST...BUT 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SUGGEST IT WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY TO
BRING THUNDER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY CHANGE IF THE UPPER
LOW WOBBLES A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER
COL REMAINING OVER OREGON TUE AND WED FOR CONTINUED HOT WEATHER. THIS
ALSO LEAVES THE S CASCADES OPEN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ALOFT
SNEAKING UP FROM THE S...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES BOTH TUE AND WED. MODELS
AT THIS POINT ARE SUGGESTING SOME RELIEF TO THE EXTENDED HEAT WAVE
COMING LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW CUTOFF OFF THE CA COAST
MOVES INLAND OVER CA POTENTIALLY BRINGING A DEEPER SW PUSH OF MARINE
AIR INLAND. MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN STATES
IS THEN REINFORCED FRI AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN OFF THE N PACIFIC
FOR EVEN COOLER AIR. WILL TREND TEMPS DOWNWARD A LITTLE MORE FOR THU
AND FRI GIVEN DECENT AGREEMENT IN MODELS WITH THIS TYPE OF
SOLUTION...BUT STILL HOLD SOME RESERVATIONS IN BUYING COMPLETELY INTO
THE CHANGE AS MODELS TEND TO STRUGGLE WITH CUTOFF LOWS ESP THIS FAR
INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HRS UNDER STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
EXPECT LOCAL LOW MVFR TO IFR STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER
GAPS LEADING INLAND THIS MORNING. SO FAR THE STRATUS HAS NEARLY
FILLED IN KAST TO KHQM...BUT IS PATCHY FOR MUCH THE OREGON COAST.
DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO MAKE IT VERY FAR INLAND...MAYBE AS FAR A
KKLS. AFTERNOON BREEZES RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL PERSIST NEXT 24 HRS. THERE MAY BE
SOME STRATUS REACHING THE KPDX AREA BETWEEN 14Z-17Z AND EXPECT IT
WILL BE AROUND 1000 FT IF IT FORMS.  /26

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC AND THERMAL LOW PRES INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE FURTHER OFFSHORE BUT REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE THERMAL LOW PRES WILL MOVE WESTWARD
LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE
WATERS. THE FCST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A SOUTHERLY WIND
REVERSAL WILL OCCUR SOMETIME SUN.

EXPECT PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
CONTINUE TODAY WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT AND A DOMINANT
PERIOD AROUND 8 SECONDS. LOOKS LIKE HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER ZONE TODAY PRIMARILY WEST OF ABOUT
30 NM. SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS WEEKEND AS WINDS
SLACKEN...REACHING AROUND 4 TO 5 FT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. PYLE/26

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 041039
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
339 AM PDT SAT JUL  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP INLAND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MAY SPIN
SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COOLING LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER INLAND THIS MORNING...THANKS IN LARGE PART TO A SURGE IN
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS FRIDAY EVENING. THIS ALLOWED A BIT MORE
MARINE AIR TO PENETRATE INLAND THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. STRATUS
HAS BEEN SPOTTY ALONG THE COAST THUS FAR...BUT 11-3.9UM SATELLITE FOG
PRODUCT IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING UP THE COLUMBIA
TO NEAR KELSO. LOW CLOUDS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR INLAND AS CLARK COUNTY
TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD IN THE
PORTLAND METRO.

THE STRONGER ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO RELAX SOME AS
AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA AND INTO THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. THIS IS LOWERING SFC PRESSURE OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND AND
SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKER ONSHORE GRADIENTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS DOING LITTLE TO COOL OFF THE GENERAL AIR MASS
ACROSS OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON...850 MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO REMAIN IN
THE +20 TO +22 DEG C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY LOWER 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES MAY SHAVE A COUPLE DEGREES OFF
HIGH TEMPS TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE HOT INLAND
WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S. THE LOWER COLUMBIA/KELSO AREA WILL
PROBABLY BE A BIT WARMER TODAY DUE TO THE WEAKER ONSHORE
GRADIENTS...BACK INTO THE 90S AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FRIDAY.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER AGAIN WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS
EXPECTED AGAIN SUN MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY FURTHER WEAKEN ONSHORE
GRADIENTS...SHOVING THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WA/N OR COAST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO MARINE
INFLUENCE EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH 850 MB TEMPS REMAINING
+20 TO +22 DEG C AND LITTLE TO NO MARINE INVERSION...TEMPS SHOULD
APPROACH 100 DEGREES AGAIN FOR SOME OF OUR INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS.

WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE BEING SHOVED OFFSHORE AND AN OVERALL WEAK
SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN ODDS ARE GOOD THAT A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATER SUN/SUN NIGHT...AND THE 00Z NAM
AND 4KM WRF-ARW SHOW THIS. WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAINING WELL INTO
THE 580S IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR EVEN A STRONG SOUTHERLY SURGE TO BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING RELIEF FROM THE HEAT INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR SUN NIGHT/MON IS EUGENE...BUT IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. OVERALL AIR MASS ALOFT CHANGES LITTLE
MONDAY...SO BARRING A DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY MARINE PUSH THAN
EXPECTED...MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT ONE WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE
90S INLAND. THOUGHT ABOUT EXTENDING THE HEAT ADVISORY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF TO GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE IMPACT
THE SOUTHERLY SURGE WILL OR WILL NOT HAVE INLAND.

MEANWHILE A CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OFF THE CA COAST...BUT 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SUGGEST IT WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY TO
BRING THUNDER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY CHANGE IF THE UPPER
LOW WOBBLES A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER
COL REMAINING OVER OREGON TUE AND WED FOR CONTINUED HOT WEATHER. THIS
ALSO LEAVES THE S CASCADES OPEN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ALOFT
SNEAKING UP FROM THE S...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES BOTH TUE AND WED. MODELS
AT THIS POINT ARE SUGGESTING SOME RELIEF TO THE EXTENDED HEAT WAVE
COMING LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW CUTOFF OFF THE CA COAST
MOVES INLAND OVER CA POTENTIALLY BRINGING A DEEPER SW PUSH OF MARINE
AIR INLAND. MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN STATES
IS THEN REINFORCED FRI AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN OFF THE N PACIFIC
FOR EVEN COOLER AIR. WILL TREND TEMPS DOWNWARD A LITTLE MORE FOR THU
AND FRI GIVEN DECENT AGREEMENT IN MODELS WITH THIS TYPE OF
SOLUTION...BUT STILL HOLD SOME RESERVATIONS IN BUYING COMPLETELY INTO
THE CHANGE AS MODELS TEND TO STRUGGLE WITH CUTOFF LOWS ESP THIS FAR
INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HRS UNDER STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
EXPECT LOCAL LOW MVFR TO IFR STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER
GAPS LEADING INLAND THIS MORNING. SO FAR THE STRATUS HAS NEARLY
FILLED IN KAST TO KHQM...BUT IS PATCHY FOR MUCH THE OREGON COAST.
DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO MAKE IT VERY FAR INLAND...MAYBE AS FAR A
KKLS. AFTERNOON BREEZES RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL PERSIST NEXT 24 HRS. THERE MAY BE
SOME STRATUS REACHING THE KPDX AREA BETWEEN 14Z-17Z AND EXPECT IT
WILL BE AROUND 1000 FT IF IT FORMS.  /26

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC AND THERMAL LOW PRES INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE FURTHER OFFSHORE BUT REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE THERMAL LOW PRES WILL MOVE WESTWARD
LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE
WATERS. THE FCST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A SOUTHERLY WIND
REVERSAL WILL OCCUR SOMETIME SUN.

EXPECT PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
CONTINUE TODAY WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT AND A DOMINANT
PERIOD AROUND 8 SECONDS. LOOKS LIKE HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER ZONE TODAY PRIMARILY WEST OF ABOUT
30 NM. SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS WEEKEND AS WINDS
SLACKEN...REACHING AROUND 4 TO 5 FT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. PYLE/26

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 041039
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
339 AM PDT SAT JUL  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP INLAND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MAY SPIN
SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COOLING LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER INLAND THIS MORNING...THANKS IN LARGE PART TO A SURGE IN
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS FRIDAY EVENING. THIS ALLOWED A BIT MORE
MARINE AIR TO PENETRATE INLAND THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. STRATUS
HAS BEEN SPOTTY ALONG THE COAST THUS FAR...BUT 11-3.9UM SATELLITE FOG
PRODUCT IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING UP THE COLUMBIA
TO NEAR KELSO. LOW CLOUDS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR INLAND AS CLARK COUNTY
TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD IN THE
PORTLAND METRO.

THE STRONGER ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO RELAX SOME AS
AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA AND INTO THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. THIS IS LOWERING SFC PRESSURE OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND AND
SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKER ONSHORE GRADIENTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS DOING LITTLE TO COOL OFF THE GENERAL AIR MASS
ACROSS OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON...850 MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO REMAIN IN
THE +20 TO +22 DEG C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY LOWER 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES MAY SHAVE A COUPLE DEGREES OFF
HIGH TEMPS TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE HOT INLAND
WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S. THE LOWER COLUMBIA/KELSO AREA WILL
PROBABLY BE A BIT WARMER TODAY DUE TO THE WEAKER ONSHORE
GRADIENTS...BACK INTO THE 90S AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FRIDAY.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER AGAIN WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS
EXPECTED AGAIN SUN MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY FURTHER WEAKEN ONSHORE
GRADIENTS...SHOVING THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WA/N OR COAST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO MARINE
INFLUENCE EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH 850 MB TEMPS REMAINING
+20 TO +22 DEG C AND LITTLE TO NO MARINE INVERSION...TEMPS SHOULD
APPROACH 100 DEGREES AGAIN FOR SOME OF OUR INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS.

WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE BEING SHOVED OFFSHORE AND AN OVERALL WEAK
SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN ODDS ARE GOOD THAT A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATER SUN/SUN NIGHT...AND THE 00Z NAM
AND 4KM WRF-ARW SHOW THIS. WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAINING WELL INTO
THE 580S IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR EVEN A STRONG SOUTHERLY SURGE TO BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING RELIEF FROM THE HEAT INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR SUN NIGHT/MON IS EUGENE...BUT IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. OVERALL AIR MASS ALOFT CHANGES LITTLE
MONDAY...SO BARRING A DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY MARINE PUSH THAN
EXPECTED...MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT ONE WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE
90S INLAND. THOUGHT ABOUT EXTENDING THE HEAT ADVISORY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF TO GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE IMPACT
THE SOUTHERLY SURGE WILL OR WILL NOT HAVE INLAND.

MEANWHILE A CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OFF THE CA COAST...BUT 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SUGGEST IT WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY TO
BRING THUNDER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY CHANGE IF THE UPPER
LOW WOBBLES A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER
COL REMAINING OVER OREGON TUE AND WED FOR CONTINUED HOT WEATHER. THIS
ALSO LEAVES THE S CASCADES OPEN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ALOFT
SNEAKING UP FROM THE S...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES BOTH TUE AND WED. MODELS
AT THIS POINT ARE SUGGESTING SOME RELIEF TO THE EXTENDED HEAT WAVE
COMING LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW CUTOFF OFF THE CA COAST
MOVES INLAND OVER CA POTENTIALLY BRINGING A DEEPER SW PUSH OF MARINE
AIR INLAND. MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN STATES
IS THEN REINFORCED FRI AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN OFF THE N PACIFIC
FOR EVEN COOLER AIR. WILL TREND TEMPS DOWNWARD A LITTLE MORE FOR THU
AND FRI GIVEN DECENT AGREEMENT IN MODELS WITH THIS TYPE OF
SOLUTION...BUT STILL HOLD SOME RESERVATIONS IN BUYING COMPLETELY INTO
THE CHANGE AS MODELS TEND TO STRUGGLE WITH CUTOFF LOWS ESP THIS FAR
INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HRS UNDER STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
EXPECT LOCAL LOW MVFR TO IFR STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER
GAPS LEADING INLAND THIS MORNING. SO FAR THE STRATUS HAS NEARLY
FILLED IN KAST TO KHQM...BUT IS PATCHY FOR MUCH THE OREGON COAST.
DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO MAKE IT VERY FAR INLAND...MAYBE AS FAR A
KKLS. AFTERNOON BREEZES RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL PERSIST NEXT 24 HRS. THERE MAY BE
SOME STRATUS REACHING THE KPDX AREA BETWEEN 14Z-17Z AND EXPECT IT
WILL BE AROUND 1000 FT IF IT FORMS.  /26

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC AND THERMAL LOW PRES INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE FURTHER OFFSHORE BUT REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE THERMAL LOW PRES WILL MOVE WESTWARD
LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE
WATERS. THE FCST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A SOUTHERLY WIND
REVERSAL WILL OCCUR SOMETIME SUN.

EXPECT PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
CONTINUE TODAY WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT AND A DOMINANT
PERIOD AROUND 8 SECONDS. LOOKS LIKE HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER ZONE TODAY PRIMARILY WEST OF ABOUT
30 NM. SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS WEEKEND AS WINDS
SLACKEN...REACHING AROUND 4 TO 5 FT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. PYLE/26

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 041039
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
339 AM PDT SAT JUL  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP INLAND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MAY SPIN
SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COOLING LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER INLAND THIS MORNING...THANKS IN LARGE PART TO A SURGE IN
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS FRIDAY EVENING. THIS ALLOWED A BIT MORE
MARINE AIR TO PENETRATE INLAND THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. STRATUS
HAS BEEN SPOTTY ALONG THE COAST THUS FAR...BUT 11-3.9UM SATELLITE FOG
PRODUCT IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING UP THE COLUMBIA
TO NEAR KELSO. LOW CLOUDS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR INLAND AS CLARK COUNTY
TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD IN THE
PORTLAND METRO.

THE STRONGER ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO RELAX SOME AS
AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA AND INTO THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. THIS IS LOWERING SFC PRESSURE OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND AND
SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKER ONSHORE GRADIENTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS DOING LITTLE TO COOL OFF THE GENERAL AIR MASS
ACROSS OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON...850 MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO REMAIN IN
THE +20 TO +22 DEG C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY LOWER 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES MAY SHAVE A COUPLE DEGREES OFF
HIGH TEMPS TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE HOT INLAND
WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S. THE LOWER COLUMBIA/KELSO AREA WILL
PROBABLY BE A BIT WARMER TODAY DUE TO THE WEAKER ONSHORE
GRADIENTS...BACK INTO THE 90S AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FRIDAY.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER AGAIN WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS
EXPECTED AGAIN SUN MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY FURTHER WEAKEN ONSHORE
GRADIENTS...SHOVING THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WA/N OR COAST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO MARINE
INFLUENCE EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH 850 MB TEMPS REMAINING
+20 TO +22 DEG C AND LITTLE TO NO MARINE INVERSION...TEMPS SHOULD
APPROACH 100 DEGREES AGAIN FOR SOME OF OUR INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS.

WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE BEING SHOVED OFFSHORE AND AN OVERALL WEAK
SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN ODDS ARE GOOD THAT A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATER SUN/SUN NIGHT...AND THE 00Z NAM
AND 4KM WRF-ARW SHOW THIS. WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAINING WELL INTO
THE 580S IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR EVEN A STRONG SOUTHERLY SURGE TO BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING RELIEF FROM THE HEAT INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR SUN NIGHT/MON IS EUGENE...BUT IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. OVERALL AIR MASS ALOFT CHANGES LITTLE
MONDAY...SO BARRING A DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY MARINE PUSH THAN
EXPECTED...MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT ONE WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE
90S INLAND. THOUGHT ABOUT EXTENDING THE HEAT ADVISORY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF TO GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE IMPACT
THE SOUTHERLY SURGE WILL OR WILL NOT HAVE INLAND.

MEANWHILE A CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OFF THE CA COAST...BUT 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SUGGEST IT WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY TO
BRING THUNDER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY CHANGE IF THE UPPER
LOW WOBBLES A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER
COL REMAINING OVER OREGON TUE AND WED FOR CONTINUED HOT WEATHER. THIS
ALSO LEAVES THE S CASCADES OPEN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ALOFT
SNEAKING UP FROM THE S...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES BOTH TUE AND WED. MODELS
AT THIS POINT ARE SUGGESTING SOME RELIEF TO THE EXTENDED HEAT WAVE
COMING LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW CUTOFF OFF THE CA COAST
MOVES INLAND OVER CA POTENTIALLY BRINGING A DEEPER SW PUSH OF MARINE
AIR INLAND. MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN STATES
IS THEN REINFORCED FRI AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN OFF THE N PACIFIC
FOR EVEN COOLER AIR. WILL TREND TEMPS DOWNWARD A LITTLE MORE FOR THU
AND FRI GIVEN DECENT AGREEMENT IN MODELS WITH THIS TYPE OF
SOLUTION...BUT STILL HOLD SOME RESERVATIONS IN BUYING COMPLETELY INTO
THE CHANGE AS MODELS TEND TO STRUGGLE WITH CUTOFF LOWS ESP THIS FAR
INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HRS UNDER STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
EXPECT LOCAL LOW MVFR TO IFR STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER
GAPS LEADING INLAND THIS MORNING. SO FAR THE STRATUS HAS NEARLY
FILLED IN KAST TO KHQM...BUT IS PATCHY FOR MUCH THE OREGON COAST.
DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO MAKE IT VERY FAR INLAND...MAYBE AS FAR A
KKLS. AFTERNOON BREEZES RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL PERSIST NEXT 24 HRS. THERE MAY BE
SOME STRATUS REACHING THE KPDX AREA BETWEEN 14Z-17Z AND EXPECT IT
WILL BE AROUND 1000 FT IF IT FORMS.  /26

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC AND THERMAL LOW PRES INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE FURTHER OFFSHORE BUT REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE THERMAL LOW PRES WILL MOVE WESTWARD
LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE
WATERS. THE FCST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A SOUTHERLY WIND
REVERSAL WILL OCCUR SOMETIME SUN.

EXPECT PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
CONTINUE TODAY WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT AND A DOMINANT
PERIOD AROUND 8 SECONDS. LOOKS LIKE HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER ZONE TODAY PRIMARILY WEST OF ABOUT
30 NM. SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS WEEKEND AS WINDS
SLACKEN...REACHING AROUND 4 TO 5 FT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. PYLE/26

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 040959
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER TROUGH REACH THE AREA AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IS A BIT STRONGER EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS MIGHT LEAD TO A COUPLE DEGREES OF COOLING TODAY BUT HIGHS WILL
STILL BE NEAR 90 FOR PARTS OF THE INTERIOR. LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY
GET CLOSE TO THE SOUTH SOUND EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF.

LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGHS
TO WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. EVEN THE COAST WILL BE TOASTY WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR INLAND
AREAS SEATTLE SOUTHWARD.

WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN MONDAY. HIGHS WILL COOL 10-15 DEGREES
AT THE COAST AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS AGAIN.
INLAND AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN HIGH AND LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAK. THE MODELS SHOW UPPER HEIGHTS BRIEFLY
RISING ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THE LOW LEVELS WARMING A
COUPLE DEGREES.

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL FINALLY BE A DISTINCT COOLING TREND
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON WHICH DAY THE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING WILL COMMENCE. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SHOWERS
COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
ARE NOT GETTING TO EXCITED ABOUT THIS JUST YET. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERN WA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
OFFSHORE AND AN UPPER TROF OVER CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL KEEP THE
FLOW ALOFT FROM THE NW. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NLY. AREAS OF
LIFR CIGS/VSBYS OVER THE COAST ARE ANTICIPATED TO DISSIPATE BY 2000
UTC.

KSEA...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NLY 5-10 KT BY 1900
UTC.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA TODAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH LOWER PRES OVER OREGON WILL RESULT IN THE FLOW
BECOMING NORTHERLY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY DUE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRES SETTING UP OFF THE WASHINGTON
COAST.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SEATTLE...BELLEVUE...TACOMA...AND EAST PUGET
     SOUND LOWLANDS ZONES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE



000
FXUS66 KSEW 040959
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER TROUGH REACH THE AREA AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IS A BIT STRONGER EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS MIGHT LEAD TO A COUPLE DEGREES OF COOLING TODAY BUT HIGHS WILL
STILL BE NEAR 90 FOR PARTS OF THE INTERIOR. LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY
GET CLOSE TO THE SOUTH SOUND EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF.

LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGHS
TO WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. EVEN THE COAST WILL BE TOASTY WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR INLAND
AREAS SEATTLE SOUTHWARD.

WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN MONDAY. HIGHS WILL COOL 10-15 DEGREES
AT THE COAST AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS AGAIN.
INLAND AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN HIGH AND LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAK. THE MODELS SHOW UPPER HEIGHTS BRIEFLY
RISING ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THE LOW LEVELS WARMING A
COUPLE DEGREES.

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL FINALLY BE A DISTINCT COOLING TREND
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON WHICH DAY THE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING WILL COMMENCE. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SHOWERS
COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
ARE NOT GETTING TO EXCITED ABOUT THIS JUST YET. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERN WA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
OFFSHORE AND AN UPPER TROF OVER CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL KEEP THE
FLOW ALOFT FROM THE NW. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NLY. AREAS OF
LIFR CIGS/VSBYS OVER THE COAST ARE ANTICIPATED TO DISSIPATE BY 2000
UTC.

KSEA...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NLY 5-10 KT BY 1900
UTC.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA TODAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH LOWER PRES OVER OREGON WILL RESULT IN THE FLOW
BECOMING NORTHERLY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY DUE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRES SETTING UP OFF THE WASHINGTON
COAST.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SEATTLE...BELLEVUE...TACOMA...AND EAST PUGET
     SOUND LOWLANDS ZONES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE




000
FXUS66 KOTX 040933
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
233 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the Independence Day
weekend. Today winds will shift to the north and increase as a
front sags in from Canada. Breezy conditions continue on Sunday.
It is still looking dry and warm into the beginning of next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday...A dry cold front will sag south across the
Inland Northwest later today, bringing increasing northerly winds
to the Okanogan Valley late this morning that will spill out into
the Waterville Plateau and western Columbia Basin by around noon.
Winds will continue to increase during the afternoon and early
evening hours with sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts to 35
mph. This will combine with very low relative humidity to produce
critical fire weather conditions. The Red Flag Warning remains in
effect for these areas, FWZ673, 684 and 687, through 10 pm. The
Northeast WA fire districts will see lighter winds during peak
daytime heating (and minimum RH) so the decision was made to not
expand the warning to FWZ686. It will still be hot and dry, but
winds will be less of a concern. There will be almost no
precipitation with this front so temperatures will remain hot.
Expect readings a few degrees cooler than Friday`s numbers, which
will still be well above seasonal normals.

As the front pivots through the forecast area tonight, the focus
will shift to northeast Washington and the northern panhandle of
Idaho. There may even be an isolated thunderstorm or two for the
northern panhandle mountains early Sunday morning but confidence
is low. The winds continue to be the main concern. Northeast winds
will be channeled down the Purcell trench into the west plains.
Fortunately, the winds will be increasing during the overnight
hours while relative humidity is recovering. There is a low
probability of critical winds and low RH for Sunday afternoon but
for now it looks like RHs will recover a bit behind the front as
slightly cooler air arrives from the north. temperatures will cool
a bit with some of the northern valley locations in the 80s. We
will continue to re-evaluate expected fire weather conditions with
the next forecast package. /Kelch

Sunday night through Saturday...The models are in decent agreement
handling the current weather pattern(s). Deep low pressure
centers anchor the end points in the Gulf of Alaska and in the
vicinity of Hudson Bay. In between high pressure will build in the
eastern Pacific. This will put the Inland northwest in a northwest
to northerly flow through about Wednesday, depending on what model
you like. a weather disturbance moving through the northerly flow
will clip the northeast zones Tuesday and Tuesday night. Behind
that disturbance high pressure will build back into the Pac NW
through Thursday in response to the Gulf of Alaska low moving into
the eastern Pacific. By Friday night/Saturday the models are
hinting that the Gulf of Alaska low will move into position just
off the coast.

Sunday night to Monday night expect a slight rebound of the
temperatures and a continued dry forecast gusty winds from Sunday
will decrease and remain out of the northwest.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...increased moisture with the aforementioned
short wave will tap into both surface based and mid level
instability and result in a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
These storms will be focused along the northeast Washington
mountains and the north Idaho Panhandle. The convection should be
isolated at best, but any lightning after this extended period of
dry weather will result in potential fire starts. The remainder of
the region will remain dry with temperatures 8-12 degrees above
normal. Another thing we will need to keep an eye on will be
increased winds down the Okanogan valley Tuesday. At this time it
doesn`t look like a strong front but winds will be on the
increase.

Wednesday and Thursday another transient ridge axis will track
across the area for a period of very warm and dry conditions.

Friday and Saturday things may get interesting. All of the model
guidance is indicating the upper low will move to just off the
Washington coast in some form or other. This is the a very good
pattern east of the Cascades for a convective outbreak as
southerly flow will tap into fairly deep sub-tropical moisture. If
this pattern verifies there will be a chance for thunderstorms
both Friday ad Saturday. Thunderstorms possibly starting off high
in the atmosphere for virga, little precipitation, and gusty
outflow winds on Friday and Friday night...then becoming much
wetter Saturday. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A dry airmass will allow for VFR conditions at all TAF
sites. Winds at KEAT will remain occasionally breezy through
Saturday. Elevated smoke layers from area wildfires will appear as
thin mid level clouds but surface visibility will not be affected.
Northerly winds will pick up aft 00z along the Canadian border
and push south through the evening hours towards KGEG KCOE and
KMWH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  89  61  91  67 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  95  62  85  57  89  61 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Pullman        94  59  89  53  90  56 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Lewiston      103  71  98  65  98  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville      100  61  92  57  94  62 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      94  54  83  49  88  54 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Kellogg        94  61  83  52  88  57 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake    102  71  97  66  98  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee     103  75  98  72  99  72 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak          100  66  96  63  97  65 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning from Noon today to 10 PM PDT this evening for
     East Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 040933
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
233 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the Independence Day
weekend. Today winds will shift to the north and increase as a
front sags in from Canada. Breezy conditions continue on Sunday.
It is still looking dry and warm into the beginning of next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday...A dry cold front will sag south across the
Inland Northwest later today, bringing increasing northerly winds
to the Okanogan Valley late this morning that will spill out into
the Waterville Plateau and western Columbia Basin by around noon.
Winds will continue to increase during the afternoon and early
evening hours with sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts to 35
mph. This will combine with very low relative humidity to produce
critical fire weather conditions. The Red Flag Warning remains in
effect for these areas, FWZ673, 684 and 687, through 10 pm. The
Northeast WA fire districts will see lighter winds during peak
daytime heating (and minimum RH) so the decision was made to not
expand the warning to FWZ686. It will still be hot and dry, but
winds will be less of a concern. There will be almost no
precipitation with this front so temperatures will remain hot.
Expect readings a few degrees cooler than Friday`s numbers, which
will still be well above seasonal normals.

As the front pivots through the forecast area tonight, the focus
will shift to northeast Washington and the northern panhandle of
Idaho. There may even be an isolated thunderstorm or two for the
northern panhandle mountains early Sunday morning but confidence
is low. The winds continue to be the main concern. Northeast winds
will be channeled down the Purcell trench into the west plains.
Fortunately, the winds will be increasing during the overnight
hours while relative humidity is recovering. There is a low
probability of critical winds and low RH for Sunday afternoon but
for now it looks like RHs will recover a bit behind the front as
slightly cooler air arrives from the north. temperatures will cool
a bit with some of the northern valley locations in the 80s. We
will continue to re-evaluate expected fire weather conditions with
the next forecast package. /Kelch

Sunday night through Saturday...The models are in decent agreement
handling the current weather pattern(s). Deep low pressure
centers anchor the end points in the Gulf of Alaska and in the
vicinity of Hudson Bay. In between high pressure will build in the
eastern Pacific. This will put the Inland northwest in a northwest
to northerly flow through about Wednesday, depending on what model
you like. a weather disturbance moving through the northerly flow
will clip the northeast zones Tuesday and Tuesday night. Behind
that disturbance high pressure will build back into the Pac NW
through Thursday in response to the Gulf of Alaska low moving into
the eastern Pacific. By Friday night/Saturday the models are
hinting that the Gulf of Alaska low will move into position just
off the coast.

Sunday night to Monday night expect a slight rebound of the
temperatures and a continued dry forecast gusty winds from Sunday
will decrease and remain out of the northwest.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...increased moisture with the aforementioned
short wave will tap into both surface based and mid level
instability and result in a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
These storms will be focused along the northeast Washington
mountains and the north Idaho Panhandle. The convection should be
isolated at best, but any lightning after this extended period of
dry weather will result in potential fire starts. The remainder of
the region will remain dry with temperatures 8-12 degrees above
normal. Another thing we will need to keep an eye on will be
increased winds down the Okanogan valley Tuesday. At this time it
doesn`t look like a strong front but winds will be on the
increase.

Wednesday and Thursday another transient ridge axis will track
across the area for a period of very warm and dry conditions.

Friday and Saturday things may get interesting. All of the model
guidance is indicating the upper low will move to just off the
Washington coast in some form or other. This is the a very good
pattern east of the Cascades for a convective outbreak as
southerly flow will tap into fairly deep sub-tropical moisture. If
this pattern verifies there will be a chance for thunderstorms
both Friday ad Saturday. Thunderstorms possibly starting off high
in the atmosphere for virga, little precipitation, and gusty
outflow winds on Friday and Friday night...then becoming much
wetter Saturday. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A dry airmass will allow for VFR conditions at all TAF
sites. Winds at KEAT will remain occasionally breezy through
Saturday. Elevated smoke layers from area wildfires will appear as
thin mid level clouds but surface visibility will not be affected.
Northerly winds will pick up aft 00z along the Canadian border
and push south through the evening hours towards KGEG KCOE and
KMWH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  89  61  91  67 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  95  62  85  57  89  61 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Pullman        94  59  89  53  90  56 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Lewiston      103  71  98  65  98  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville      100  61  92  57  94  62 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      94  54  83  49  88  54 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Kellogg        94  61  83  52  88  57 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake    102  71  97  66  98  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee     103  75  98  72  99  72 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak          100  66  96  63  97  65 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning from Noon today to 10 PM PDT this evening for
     East Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 040933
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
233 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the Independence Day
weekend. Today winds will shift to the north and increase as a
front sags in from Canada. Breezy conditions continue on Sunday.
It is still looking dry and warm into the beginning of next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday...A dry cold front will sag south across the
Inland Northwest later today, bringing increasing northerly winds
to the Okanogan Valley late this morning that will spill out into
the Waterville Plateau and western Columbia Basin by around noon.
Winds will continue to increase during the afternoon and early
evening hours with sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts to 35
mph. This will combine with very low relative humidity to produce
critical fire weather conditions. The Red Flag Warning remains in
effect for these areas, FWZ673, 684 and 687, through 10 pm. The
Northeast WA fire districts will see lighter winds during peak
daytime heating (and minimum RH) so the decision was made to not
expand the warning to FWZ686. It will still be hot and dry, but
winds will be less of a concern. There will be almost no
precipitation with this front so temperatures will remain hot.
Expect readings a few degrees cooler than Friday`s numbers, which
will still be well above seasonal normals.

As the front pivots through the forecast area tonight, the focus
will shift to northeast Washington and the northern panhandle of
Idaho. There may even be an isolated thunderstorm or two for the
northern panhandle mountains early Sunday morning but confidence
is low. The winds continue to be the main concern. Northeast winds
will be channeled down the Purcell trench into the west plains.
Fortunately, the winds will be increasing during the overnight
hours while relative humidity is recovering. There is a low
probability of critical winds and low RH for Sunday afternoon but
for now it looks like RHs will recover a bit behind the front as
slightly cooler air arrives from the north. temperatures will cool
a bit with some of the northern valley locations in the 80s. We
will continue to re-evaluate expected fire weather conditions with
the next forecast package. /Kelch

Sunday night through Saturday...The models are in decent agreement
handling the current weather pattern(s). Deep low pressure
centers anchor the end points in the Gulf of Alaska and in the
vicinity of Hudson Bay. In between high pressure will build in the
eastern Pacific. This will put the Inland northwest in a northwest
to northerly flow through about Wednesday, depending on what model
you like. a weather disturbance moving through the northerly flow
will clip the northeast zones Tuesday and Tuesday night. Behind
that disturbance high pressure will build back into the Pac NW
through Thursday in response to the Gulf of Alaska low moving into
the eastern Pacific. By Friday night/Saturday the models are
hinting that the Gulf of Alaska low will move into position just
off the coast.

Sunday night to Monday night expect a slight rebound of the
temperatures and a continued dry forecast gusty winds from Sunday
will decrease and remain out of the northwest.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...increased moisture with the aforementioned
short wave will tap into both surface based and mid level
instability and result in a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
These storms will be focused along the northeast Washington
mountains and the north Idaho Panhandle. The convection should be
isolated at best, but any lightning after this extended period of
dry weather will result in potential fire starts. The remainder of
the region will remain dry with temperatures 8-12 degrees above
normal. Another thing we will need to keep an eye on will be
increased winds down the Okanogan valley Tuesday. At this time it
doesn`t look like a strong front but winds will be on the
increase.

Wednesday and Thursday another transient ridge axis will track
across the area for a period of very warm and dry conditions.

Friday and Saturday things may get interesting. All of the model
guidance is indicating the upper low will move to just off the
Washington coast in some form or other. This is the a very good
pattern east of the Cascades for a convective outbreak as
southerly flow will tap into fairly deep sub-tropical moisture. If
this pattern verifies there will be a chance for thunderstorms
both Friday ad Saturday. Thunderstorms possibly starting off high
in the atmosphere for virga, little precipitation, and gusty
outflow winds on Friday and Friday night...then becoming much
wetter Saturday. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A dry airmass will allow for VFR conditions at all TAF
sites. Winds at KEAT will remain occasionally breezy through
Saturday. Elevated smoke layers from area wildfires will appear as
thin mid level clouds but surface visibility will not be affected.
Northerly winds will pick up aft 00z along the Canadian border
and push south through the evening hours towards KGEG KCOE and
KMWH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  89  61  91  67 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  95  62  85  57  89  61 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Pullman        94  59  89  53  90  56 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Lewiston      103  71  98  65  98  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville      100  61  92  57  94  62 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      94  54  83  49  88  54 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Kellogg        94  61  83  52  88  57 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake    102  71  97  66  98  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee     103  75  98  72  99  72 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak          100  66  96  63  97  65 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning from Noon today to 10 PM PDT this evening for
     East Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 040933
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
233 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured for the Independence Day
weekend. Today winds will shift to the north and increase as a
front sags in from Canada. Breezy conditions continue on Sunday.
It is still looking dry and warm into the beginning of next week.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday...A dry cold front will sag south across the
Inland Northwest later today, bringing increasing northerly winds
to the Okanogan Valley late this morning that will spill out into
the Waterville Plateau and western Columbia Basin by around noon.
Winds will continue to increase during the afternoon and early
evening hours with sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts to 35
mph. This will combine with very low relative humidity to produce
critical fire weather conditions. The Red Flag Warning remains in
effect for these areas, FWZ673, 684 and 687, through 10 pm. The
Northeast WA fire districts will see lighter winds during peak
daytime heating (and minimum RH) so the decision was made to not
expand the warning to FWZ686. It will still be hot and dry, but
winds will be less of a concern. There will be almost no
precipitation with this front so temperatures will remain hot.
Expect readings a few degrees cooler than Friday`s numbers, which
will still be well above seasonal normals.

As the front pivots through the forecast area tonight, the focus
will shift to northeast Washington and the northern panhandle of
Idaho. There may even be an isolated thunderstorm or two for the
northern panhandle mountains early Sunday morning but confidence
is low. The winds continue to be the main concern. Northeast winds
will be channeled down the Purcell trench into the west plains.
Fortunately, the winds will be increasing during the overnight
hours while relative humidity is recovering. There is a low
probability of critical winds and low RH for Sunday afternoon but
for now it looks like RHs will recover a bit behind the front as
slightly cooler air arrives from the north. temperatures will cool
a bit with some of the northern valley locations in the 80s. We
will continue to re-evaluate expected fire weather conditions with
the next forecast package. /Kelch

Sunday night through Saturday...The models are in decent agreement
handling the current weather pattern(s). Deep low pressure
centers anchor the end points in the Gulf of Alaska and in the
vicinity of Hudson Bay. In between high pressure will build in the
eastern Pacific. This will put the Inland northwest in a northwest
to northerly flow through about Wednesday, depending on what model
you like. a weather disturbance moving through the northerly flow
will clip the northeast zones Tuesday and Tuesday night. Behind
that disturbance high pressure will build back into the Pac NW
through Thursday in response to the Gulf of Alaska low moving into
the eastern Pacific. By Friday night/Saturday the models are
hinting that the Gulf of Alaska low will move into position just
off the coast.

Sunday night to Monday night expect a slight rebound of the
temperatures and a continued dry forecast gusty winds from Sunday
will decrease and remain out of the northwest.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...increased moisture with the aforementioned
short wave will tap into both surface based and mid level
instability and result in a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
These storms will be focused along the northeast Washington
mountains and the north Idaho Panhandle. The convection should be
isolated at best, but any lightning after this extended period of
dry weather will result in potential fire starts. The remainder of
the region will remain dry with temperatures 8-12 degrees above
normal. Another thing we will need to keep an eye on will be
increased winds down the Okanogan valley Tuesday. At this time it
doesn`t look like a strong front but winds will be on the
increase.

Wednesday and Thursday another transient ridge axis will track
across the area for a period of very warm and dry conditions.

Friday and Saturday things may get interesting. All of the model
guidance is indicating the upper low will move to just off the
Washington coast in some form or other. This is the a very good
pattern east of the Cascades for a convective outbreak as
southerly flow will tap into fairly deep sub-tropical moisture. If
this pattern verifies there will be a chance for thunderstorms
both Friday ad Saturday. Thunderstorms possibly starting off high
in the atmosphere for virga, little precipitation, and gusty
outflow winds on Friday and Friday night...then becoming much
wetter Saturday. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A dry airmass will allow for VFR conditions at all TAF
sites. Winds at KEAT will remain occasionally breezy through
Saturday. Elevated smoke layers from area wildfires will appear as
thin mid level clouds but surface visibility will not be affected.
Northerly winds will pick up aft 00z along the Canadian border
and push south through the evening hours towards KGEG KCOE and
KMWH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        98  67  89  61  91  67 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  95  62  85  57  89  61 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Pullman        94  59  89  53  90  56 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Lewiston      103  71  98  65  98  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville      100  61  92  57  94  62 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      94  54  83  49  88  54 /   0  10  10   0   0  10
Kellogg        94  61  83  52  88  57 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake    102  71  97  66  98  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee     103  75  98  72  99  72 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak          100  66  96  63  97  65 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning from Noon today to 10 PM PDT this evening for
     East Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 040435 AAA
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Spokane WA
935 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured into the Independence Day
weekend. Saturday winds will be increasing as a front tries to
sag in from Canada, eventually forcing winds more from the north.
Breezy conditions continue on Sunday. It is still looking dry and
warm into the beginning of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TONIGHT TO TAKE OUT HEAT ADVISORY AND RED FLAGS THAT
EXPIRED AT 9PM. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WENATCHEE AND KITTITAS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. MAIN CONCERN FOR TOMORROW
WILL ONCE AGAIN FOCUS ON LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS IN ASSOCIATED WITH A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING IN
FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. UNFORTUNATELY, THE WINDS MOVE THROUGH IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS RIGHT WHEN MANY TOWNS WILL BE
SETTING OFF THEIR FIREWORKS.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A dry airmass will allow for VFR conditions at all TAF
sites. Winds at KEAT will remain occasionally breezy through
Saturday. Elevated smoke layers from area wildfires will appear as
thin mid level clouds but surface visibility will not be affected.
Northerly winds will pick up aft 00z along the Canadian border
and push south through the evening hours towards KGEG KCOE and
KMWH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  96  66  87  62  92 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  62  94  62  84  58  90 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Pullman        58  94  57  89  53  91 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Lewiston       69 102  70  98  66  98 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       64  98  60  92  58  95 /   0   0  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      55  93  54  83  50  89 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        62  93  59  83  54  89 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Moses Lake     68 102  70  97  65  99 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      73 102  72  98  71 100 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           67  98  63  96  63  98 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning from Noon to 10 PM PDT Saturday for East
     Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 040435 AAA
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Spokane WA
935 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured into the Independence Day
weekend. Saturday winds will be increasing as a front tries to
sag in from Canada, eventually forcing winds more from the north.
Breezy conditions continue on Sunday. It is still looking dry and
warm into the beginning of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TONIGHT TO TAKE OUT HEAT ADVISORY AND RED FLAGS THAT
EXPIRED AT 9PM. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WENATCHEE AND KITTITAS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. MAIN CONCERN FOR TOMORROW
WILL ONCE AGAIN FOCUS ON LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS IN ASSOCIATED WITH A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING IN
FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. UNFORTUNATELY, THE WINDS MOVE THROUGH IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS RIGHT WHEN MANY TOWNS WILL BE
SETTING OFF THEIR FIREWORKS.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A dry airmass will allow for VFR conditions at all TAF
sites. Winds at KEAT will remain occasionally breezy through
Saturday. Elevated smoke layers from area wildfires will appear as
thin mid level clouds but surface visibility will not be affected.
Northerly winds will pick up aft 00z along the Canadian border
and push south through the evening hours towards KGEG KCOE and
KMWH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  96  66  87  62  92 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  62  94  62  84  58  90 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Pullman        58  94  57  89  53  91 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Lewiston       69 102  70  98  66  98 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       64  98  60  92  58  95 /   0   0  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      55  93  54  83  50  89 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        62  93  59  83  54  89 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Moses Lake     68 102  70  97  65  99 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      73 102  72  98  71 100 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           67  98  63  96  63  98 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning from Noon to 10 PM PDT Saturday for East
     Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 040413
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
910 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY AND HOT DAYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND LIKELY INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COMBINED WITH A THERMALLY
INDUCED TROUGH OF LOW PRES AT THE SURFACE SITS OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...IT APPEARS THAT HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL
LIKELY BE ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER HOT DAY APPEARS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN FINALLY SHIFTS INTO ONE MORE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A 590 DAM RIDGE IS CENTERED AROUND 45N 140W. THIS RIDGE IS GIVING
WARM AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
NORTHERN ALBERTA IS DROPPING SE TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ON
SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL BRITISH
COLUMBIA...THEN PUSH INTO SOUTHEASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WESTERN
MONTANA ON SUNDAY. THIS HIGH WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW
AND ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF THERMAL TROUGHING WEST OF THE CASCADES.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS MAY FALL A BIT ON SATURDAY...AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT ANY COOLING ALOFT WILL
BE OFFSET BY WEAK THERMAL TROUGHING FROM THE MAIN HEAT LOW OVER SE
WASHINGTON INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND ON SATURDAY. A MORE WELL DEFINED
THERMAL TROUGHING WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY
AS OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES. THE 18Z GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
850 MB COOLING ON SAT THAN MOST OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

THE 12Z ECMWF IS WARMER ON SAT THAN THE GFS AND IS MUCH WARMER FOR
SUN. MOS HAS HAD A COOL BIAS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IN THE INTERIOR.
FORECASTS HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WERE PUSHED 2-4
DEGREES HOTTER FROM ABOUT EVERETT OR SO SOUTHWARD IN THE INTERIOR
AND THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL PUGET SOUND REGION WAS
EXTENDED UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...IT IS STARTING TO APPEAR THAT MONDAY WILL BE NEARLY AS
HOT AS SUNDAY. THERMAL TROUGHING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS APPEARS
LIKELY TO SHIFT BACK INTO A POSITION THAT EXTENDS FROM PASCO WA INTO
VANCOUVER ISLAND. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...THEN
WEDNESDAY MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AS A SHORT WAVE UPPER
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GOOD COOLING WITH A SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN AND STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OF NEXT WEEK.  ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL KEEP THE FLOW
ALOFT FROM THE WNW. LOW LEVEL WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME FLAT
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME LOCALIZED LIFR CIGS/VSBYS ON
THE COAST AFTER 0700 UTC.

KSEA...VFR. NLY WINDS OF 5-9 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
0900 UTC.

&&

.MARINE... WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME FLAT OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRES
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND LOWER PRES OVER OREGON WILL RESULT IN
NORTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY DUE TO LOW PRES SETTING UP ALONG THE
WASHINGTON COAST.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SEATTLE...BELLEVUE...TACOMA...AND EAST PUGET
     SOUND LOWLANDS ZONES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
      FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER FROM 10 NM OUT TO 60 NM
      AND THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE



000
FXUS66 KSEW 040413
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
910 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY AND HOT DAYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND LIKELY INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COMBINED WITH A THERMALLY
INDUCED TROUGH OF LOW PRES AT THE SURFACE SITS OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...IT APPEARS THAT HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL
LIKELY BE ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER HOT DAY APPEARS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN FINALLY SHIFTS INTO ONE MORE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A 590 DAM RIDGE IS CENTERED AROUND 45N 140W. THIS RIDGE IS GIVING
WARM AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
NORTHERN ALBERTA IS DROPPING SE TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ON
SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL BRITISH
COLUMBIA...THEN PUSH INTO SOUTHEASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WESTERN
MONTANA ON SUNDAY. THIS HIGH WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW
AND ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF THERMAL TROUGHING WEST OF THE CASCADES.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS MAY FALL A BIT ON SATURDAY...AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT ANY COOLING ALOFT WILL
BE OFFSET BY WEAK THERMAL TROUGHING FROM THE MAIN HEAT LOW OVER SE
WASHINGTON INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND ON SATURDAY. A MORE WELL DEFINED
THERMAL TROUGHING WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY
AS OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES. THE 18Z GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
850 MB COOLING ON SAT THAN MOST OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

THE 12Z ECMWF IS WARMER ON SAT THAN THE GFS AND IS MUCH WARMER FOR
SUN. MOS HAS HAD A COOL BIAS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IN THE INTERIOR.
FORECASTS HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WERE PUSHED 2-4
DEGREES HOTTER FROM ABOUT EVERETT OR SO SOUTHWARD IN THE INTERIOR
AND THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL PUGET SOUND REGION WAS
EXTENDED UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...IT IS STARTING TO APPEAR THAT MONDAY WILL BE NEARLY AS
HOT AS SUNDAY. THERMAL TROUGHING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS APPEARS
LIKELY TO SHIFT BACK INTO A POSITION THAT EXTENDS FROM PASCO WA INTO
VANCOUVER ISLAND. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...THEN
WEDNESDAY MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AS A SHORT WAVE UPPER
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GOOD COOLING WITH A SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN AND STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OF NEXT WEEK.  ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL KEEP THE FLOW
ALOFT FROM THE WNW. LOW LEVEL WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME FLAT
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME LOCALIZED LIFR CIGS/VSBYS ON
THE COAST AFTER 0700 UTC.

KSEA...VFR. NLY WINDS OF 5-9 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
0900 UTC.

&&

.MARINE... WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME FLAT OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRES
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND LOWER PRES OVER OREGON WILL RESULT IN
NORTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY DUE TO LOW PRES SETTING UP ALONG THE
WASHINGTON COAST.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SEATTLE...BELLEVUE...TACOMA...AND EAST PUGET
     SOUND LOWLANDS ZONES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
      FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER FROM 10 NM OUT TO 60 NM
      AND THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE



000
FXUS66 KSEW 040413
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
910 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY AND HOT DAYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND LIKELY INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COMBINED WITH A THERMALLY
INDUCED TROUGH OF LOW PRES AT THE SURFACE SITS OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...IT APPEARS THAT HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL
LIKELY BE ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER HOT DAY APPEARS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN FINALLY SHIFTS INTO ONE MORE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A 590 DAM RIDGE IS CENTERED AROUND 45N 140W. THIS RIDGE IS GIVING
WARM AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
NORTHERN ALBERTA IS DROPPING SE TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ON
SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL BRITISH
COLUMBIA...THEN PUSH INTO SOUTHEASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WESTERN
MONTANA ON SUNDAY. THIS HIGH WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW
AND ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF THERMAL TROUGHING WEST OF THE CASCADES.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS MAY FALL A BIT ON SATURDAY...AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT ANY COOLING ALOFT WILL
BE OFFSET BY WEAK THERMAL TROUGHING FROM THE MAIN HEAT LOW OVER SE
WASHINGTON INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND ON SATURDAY. A MORE WELL DEFINED
THERMAL TROUGHING WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY
AS OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES. THE 18Z GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
850 MB COOLING ON SAT THAN MOST OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

THE 12Z ECMWF IS WARMER ON SAT THAN THE GFS AND IS MUCH WARMER FOR
SUN. MOS HAS HAD A COOL BIAS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IN THE INTERIOR.
FORECASTS HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WERE PUSHED 2-4
DEGREES HOTTER FROM ABOUT EVERETT OR SO SOUTHWARD IN THE INTERIOR
AND THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL PUGET SOUND REGION WAS
EXTENDED UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...IT IS STARTING TO APPEAR THAT MONDAY WILL BE NEARLY AS
HOT AS SUNDAY. THERMAL TROUGHING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS APPEARS
LIKELY TO SHIFT BACK INTO A POSITION THAT EXTENDS FROM PASCO WA INTO
VANCOUVER ISLAND. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...THEN
WEDNESDAY MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AS A SHORT WAVE UPPER
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GOOD COOLING WITH A SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN AND STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OF NEXT WEEK.  ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL KEEP THE FLOW
ALOFT FROM THE WNW. LOW LEVEL WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME FLAT
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME LOCALIZED LIFR CIGS/VSBYS ON
THE COAST AFTER 0700 UTC.

KSEA...VFR. NLY WINDS OF 5-9 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
0900 UTC.

&&

.MARINE... WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME FLAT OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRES
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND LOWER PRES OVER OREGON WILL RESULT IN
NORTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY DUE TO LOW PRES SETTING UP ALONG THE
WASHINGTON COAST.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SEATTLE...BELLEVUE...TACOMA...AND EAST PUGET
     SOUND LOWLANDS ZONES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
      FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER FROM 10 NM OUT TO 60 NM
      AND THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE



000
FXUS66 KSEW 040413
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
910 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY AND HOT DAYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND LIKELY INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COMBINED WITH A THERMALLY
INDUCED TROUGH OF LOW PRES AT THE SURFACE SITS OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...IT APPEARS THAT HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL
LIKELY BE ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER HOT DAY APPEARS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN FINALLY SHIFTS INTO ONE MORE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A 590 DAM RIDGE IS CENTERED AROUND 45N 140W. THIS RIDGE IS GIVING
WARM AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
NORTHERN ALBERTA IS DROPPING SE TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ON
SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL BRITISH
COLUMBIA...THEN PUSH INTO SOUTHEASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WESTERN
MONTANA ON SUNDAY. THIS HIGH WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW
AND ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF THERMAL TROUGHING WEST OF THE CASCADES.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS MAY FALL A BIT ON SATURDAY...AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT ANY COOLING ALOFT WILL
BE OFFSET BY WEAK THERMAL TROUGHING FROM THE MAIN HEAT LOW OVER SE
WASHINGTON INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND ON SATURDAY. A MORE WELL DEFINED
THERMAL TROUGHING WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY
AS OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES. THE 18Z GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
850 MB COOLING ON SAT THAN MOST OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

THE 12Z ECMWF IS WARMER ON SAT THAN THE GFS AND IS MUCH WARMER FOR
SUN. MOS HAS HAD A COOL BIAS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IN THE INTERIOR.
FORECASTS HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WERE PUSHED 2-4
DEGREES HOTTER FROM ABOUT EVERETT OR SO SOUTHWARD IN THE INTERIOR
AND THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL PUGET SOUND REGION WAS
EXTENDED UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...IT IS STARTING TO APPEAR THAT MONDAY WILL BE NEARLY AS
HOT AS SUNDAY. THERMAL TROUGHING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS APPEARS
LIKELY TO SHIFT BACK INTO A POSITION THAT EXTENDS FROM PASCO WA INTO
VANCOUVER ISLAND. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...THEN
WEDNESDAY MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AS A SHORT WAVE UPPER
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GOOD COOLING WITH A SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN AND STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OF NEXT WEEK.  ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL KEEP THE FLOW
ALOFT FROM THE WNW. LOW LEVEL WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME FLAT
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME LOCALIZED LIFR CIGS/VSBYS ON
THE COAST AFTER 0700 UTC.

KSEA...VFR. NLY WINDS OF 5-9 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
0900 UTC.

&&

.MARINE... WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME FLAT OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRES
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND LOWER PRES OVER OREGON WILL RESULT IN
NORTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY DUE TO LOW PRES SETTING UP ALONG THE
WASHINGTON COAST.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SEATTLE...BELLEVUE...TACOMA...AND EAST PUGET
     SOUND LOWLANDS ZONES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
      FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER FROM 10 NM OUT TO 60 NM
      AND THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE



000
FXUS66 KPQR 040343
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
843 PM PDT FRI JUL  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP INLAND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MAY SPIN
SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COOLING LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER ALOFT.

&&

.UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS EVENING. AST-DLS AND AST-PDT
GRADIENTS ARE STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT WHICH SHOULD MEAN THAT
TEMPERATURES COOL A BIT MORE QUICKLY THIS EVENING THAN LAST.
TYPICALLY IT WOULD ALSO MEAN MARINE STRATUS WOULD PUSH FARTHER
INLAND...BUT THERE IS NO MARINE STRATUS TO SPEAK OF YET...SO THE
EXTENT OF THE INLAND PUSH WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON WHEN IT ACTUALLY
FORMS. THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT NEWPORT IS ONLY ABOUT 3.5
DEGREES...SO STRATUS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THAT AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND LIKELY PUSH UP THE COAST AND THEN INLAND. ADDED
SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER TO THE PORTLAND AREA FOR SUNDAY MORNING
BUT ANY CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY. BOWEN

.SHORT TERM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT FRI AFTERNOON EXTENDED FROM
THE SW U.S. TO OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NW. THE RIDGE...RUNNING
ACROSS SW OREGON...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MON. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE RIDGE WEAKENING SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COL OVER WESTERN OREGON THIS WEEKEND. UNDER THE
RIDGE NW ONSHORE PRES GRADIENTS HAVE STRENGTHENED SOME...WHICH
COUPLED WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL TAKE A LITTLE OF THE EDGE
OFF DAYTIME TEMPS FOR SAT BY CUTTING THEM DOWN A FEW DEGREES. MODELS
SHOW NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS AGAIN SUN...EXCEPT H8
TEMPS CREEP BACK UP TO AROUND 22 DEG C WHICH SHOULD PUT HIGH TEMPS
BACK CLOSE TO THU HIGHS. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD
FILL BACK IN ALONG THE COAST WITH A LIMITED PUSH OF MARINE CLOUDS UP
THE LOWER COLUMBIA. A WIND FLOW REVERSAL ALONG THE COAST INDICATED
BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOULD HELP SOME CLOUDS PUSH INTO THE OREGON
COAST RANGE SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON...BUT OVERALL AIR MASS EXPECTED
TO CHANGE LITTLE SO WILL STILL SEE INLAND TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE
90S. WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER IN THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES MON AFTERNOON AS GFS AND NAM SHOW SOME INSTABILITY COMING
UP FROM THE S OUT OF THE LOW OFF THE CA COAST.

.LONG TERM...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER COL REMAINING OVER OREGON
TUE AND WED FOR CONTINUED HOT WEATHER. THIS ALSO LEAVES THE S
CASCADES OPEN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ALOFT SNEAKING UP FROM THE
S...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LANE COUNTY CASCADES BOTH TUE AND WED. MODELS AT THIS POINT ARE
SUGGESTING SOME RELIEF TO THE EXTENDED HEAT WAVE COMING AROUND THU
AS THE UPPER LOW CUTOFF OFF THE CA COAST MOVES INLAND OVER CA GIVING
POTENTIALLY BRINGING A SW PUSH OF MARINE AIR INLAND. MODELS INDICATE
THE TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS THEN REINFORCED FRI AS
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN OFF THE N PACIFIC FOR EVEN COOLER AIR. WILL
TREND TEMPS DOWNWARD A LITTLE MORE FOR THU AND FRI GIVEN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN MODELS WITH THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION...BUT STILL HOLD SOME
RESERVATIONS IN BUYING COMPLETELY INTO THE CHANGE AS MODELS TEND TO
STRUGGLE WITH CUTOFF LOWS ESP THIS FAR INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HRS UNDER STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
EXPECT THE IFR STRATUS TO REFORM ALONG THE COAST LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN PUSH INTO THE COASTAL GAPS AND UP THE COLUMBIA
RIVER AS FAR AS KELSO OVERNIGHT. INLAND TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGH SAT. BREEZY NW WINDS RETURN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL PERSIST NEXT 24 HRS. NW WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY AGAIN AT TIMES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PYLE/27

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC AND THERMAL LOW PRES INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO SAT. THE BEST WINDS ARE FURTHER OFFSHORE...WHERE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE
LIGHTER NEAR SHORE...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. THE THERMAL LOW
PRES WILL MOVE WESTWARD THIS WEEKEND...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT
OVER THE WATERS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS TO DROP
BELOW 20 KT LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FCST
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL OCCUR
SOMETIME SUN.

EXPECT PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT AND A DOMINANT
PERIOD
AROUND 8 SECONDS. SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS WEEKEND
AS WINDS SLACKEN...REACHING AROUND 4 TO 5 FT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA- LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 040343
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
843 PM PDT FRI JUL  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP INLAND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MAY SPIN
SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COOLING LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER ALOFT.

&&

.UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS EVENING. AST-DLS AND AST-PDT
GRADIENTS ARE STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT WHICH SHOULD MEAN THAT
TEMPERATURES COOL A BIT MORE QUICKLY THIS EVENING THAN LAST.
TYPICALLY IT WOULD ALSO MEAN MARINE STRATUS WOULD PUSH FARTHER
INLAND...BUT THERE IS NO MARINE STRATUS TO SPEAK OF YET...SO THE
EXTENT OF THE INLAND PUSH WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON WHEN IT ACTUALLY
FORMS. THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT NEWPORT IS ONLY ABOUT 3.5
DEGREES...SO STRATUS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THAT AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND LIKELY PUSH UP THE COAST AND THEN INLAND. ADDED
SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER TO THE PORTLAND AREA FOR SUNDAY MORNING
BUT ANY CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY. BOWEN

.SHORT TERM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT FRI AFTERNOON EXTENDED FROM
THE SW U.S. TO OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NW. THE RIDGE...RUNNING
ACROSS SW OREGON...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MON. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE RIDGE WEAKENING SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COL OVER WESTERN OREGON THIS WEEKEND. UNDER THE
RIDGE NW ONSHORE PRES GRADIENTS HAVE STRENGTHENED SOME...WHICH
COUPLED WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL TAKE A LITTLE OF THE EDGE
OFF DAYTIME TEMPS FOR SAT BY CUTTING THEM DOWN A FEW DEGREES. MODELS
SHOW NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS AGAIN SUN...EXCEPT H8
TEMPS CREEP BACK UP TO AROUND 22 DEG C WHICH SHOULD PUT HIGH TEMPS
BACK CLOSE TO THU HIGHS. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD
FILL BACK IN ALONG THE COAST WITH A LIMITED PUSH OF MARINE CLOUDS UP
THE LOWER COLUMBIA. A WIND FLOW REVERSAL ALONG THE COAST INDICATED
BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOULD HELP SOME CLOUDS PUSH INTO THE OREGON
COAST RANGE SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON...BUT OVERALL AIR MASS EXPECTED
TO CHANGE LITTLE SO WILL STILL SEE INLAND TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE
90S. WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER IN THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES MON AFTERNOON AS GFS AND NAM SHOW SOME INSTABILITY COMING
UP FROM THE S OUT OF THE LOW OFF THE CA COAST.

.LONG TERM...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER COL REMAINING OVER OREGON
TUE AND WED FOR CONTINUED HOT WEATHER. THIS ALSO LEAVES THE S
CASCADES OPEN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ALOFT SNEAKING UP FROM THE
S...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LANE COUNTY CASCADES BOTH TUE AND WED. MODELS AT THIS POINT ARE
SUGGESTING SOME RELIEF TO THE EXTENDED HEAT WAVE COMING AROUND THU
AS THE UPPER LOW CUTOFF OFF THE CA COAST MOVES INLAND OVER CA GIVING
POTENTIALLY BRINGING A SW PUSH OF MARINE AIR INLAND. MODELS INDICATE
THE TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS THEN REINFORCED FRI AS
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN OFF THE N PACIFIC FOR EVEN COOLER AIR. WILL
TREND TEMPS DOWNWARD A LITTLE MORE FOR THU AND FRI GIVEN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN MODELS WITH THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION...BUT STILL HOLD SOME
RESERVATIONS IN BUYING COMPLETELY INTO THE CHANGE AS MODELS TEND TO
STRUGGLE WITH CUTOFF LOWS ESP THIS FAR INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HRS UNDER STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
EXPECT THE IFR STRATUS TO REFORM ALONG THE COAST LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN PUSH INTO THE COASTAL GAPS AND UP THE COLUMBIA
RIVER AS FAR AS KELSO OVERNIGHT. INLAND TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGH SAT. BREEZY NW WINDS RETURN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL PERSIST NEXT 24 HRS. NW WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY AGAIN AT TIMES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PYLE/27

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC AND THERMAL LOW PRES INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO SAT. THE BEST WINDS ARE FURTHER OFFSHORE...WHERE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE
LIGHTER NEAR SHORE...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. THE THERMAL LOW
PRES WILL MOVE WESTWARD THIS WEEKEND...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT
OVER THE WATERS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS TO DROP
BELOW 20 KT LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FCST
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL OCCUR
SOMETIME SUN.

EXPECT PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT AND A DOMINANT
PERIOD
AROUND 8 SECONDS. SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS WEEKEND
AS WINDS SLACKEN...REACHING AROUND 4 TO 5 FT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA- LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 040343
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
843 PM PDT FRI JUL  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP INLAND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MAY SPIN
SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COOLING LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER ALOFT.

&&

.UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS EVENING. AST-DLS AND AST-PDT
GRADIENTS ARE STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT WHICH SHOULD MEAN THAT
TEMPERATURES COOL A BIT MORE QUICKLY THIS EVENING THAN LAST.
TYPICALLY IT WOULD ALSO MEAN MARINE STRATUS WOULD PUSH FARTHER
INLAND...BUT THERE IS NO MARINE STRATUS TO SPEAK OF YET...SO THE
EXTENT OF THE INLAND PUSH WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON WHEN IT ACTUALLY
FORMS. THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT NEWPORT IS ONLY ABOUT 3.5
DEGREES...SO STRATUS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THAT AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND LIKELY PUSH UP THE COAST AND THEN INLAND. ADDED
SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER TO THE PORTLAND AREA FOR SUNDAY MORNING
BUT ANY CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY. BOWEN

.SHORT TERM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT FRI AFTERNOON EXTENDED FROM
THE SW U.S. TO OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NW. THE RIDGE...RUNNING
ACROSS SW OREGON...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MON. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE RIDGE WEAKENING SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COL OVER WESTERN OREGON THIS WEEKEND. UNDER THE
RIDGE NW ONSHORE PRES GRADIENTS HAVE STRENGTHENED SOME...WHICH
COUPLED WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL TAKE A LITTLE OF THE EDGE
OFF DAYTIME TEMPS FOR SAT BY CUTTING THEM DOWN A FEW DEGREES. MODELS
SHOW NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS AGAIN SUN...EXCEPT H8
TEMPS CREEP BACK UP TO AROUND 22 DEG C WHICH SHOULD PUT HIGH TEMPS
BACK CLOSE TO THU HIGHS. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD
FILL BACK IN ALONG THE COAST WITH A LIMITED PUSH OF MARINE CLOUDS UP
THE LOWER COLUMBIA. A WIND FLOW REVERSAL ALONG THE COAST INDICATED
BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOULD HELP SOME CLOUDS PUSH INTO THE OREGON
COAST RANGE SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON...BUT OVERALL AIR MASS EXPECTED
TO CHANGE LITTLE SO WILL STILL SEE INLAND TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE
90S. WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER IN THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES MON AFTERNOON AS GFS AND NAM SHOW SOME INSTABILITY COMING
UP FROM THE S OUT OF THE LOW OFF THE CA COAST.

.LONG TERM...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER COL REMAINING OVER OREGON
TUE AND WED FOR CONTINUED HOT WEATHER. THIS ALSO LEAVES THE S
CASCADES OPEN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ALOFT SNEAKING UP FROM THE
S...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LANE COUNTY CASCADES BOTH TUE AND WED. MODELS AT THIS POINT ARE
SUGGESTING SOME RELIEF TO THE EXTENDED HEAT WAVE COMING AROUND THU
AS THE UPPER LOW CUTOFF OFF THE CA COAST MOVES INLAND OVER CA GIVING
POTENTIALLY BRINGING A SW PUSH OF MARINE AIR INLAND. MODELS INDICATE
THE TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS THEN REINFORCED FRI AS
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN OFF THE N PACIFIC FOR EVEN COOLER AIR. WILL
TREND TEMPS DOWNWARD A LITTLE MORE FOR THU AND FRI GIVEN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN MODELS WITH THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION...BUT STILL HOLD SOME
RESERVATIONS IN BUYING COMPLETELY INTO THE CHANGE AS MODELS TEND TO
STRUGGLE WITH CUTOFF LOWS ESP THIS FAR INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HRS UNDER STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
EXPECT THE IFR STRATUS TO REFORM ALONG THE COAST LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN PUSH INTO THE COASTAL GAPS AND UP THE COLUMBIA
RIVER AS FAR AS KELSO OVERNIGHT. INLAND TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGH SAT. BREEZY NW WINDS RETURN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL PERSIST NEXT 24 HRS. NW WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY AGAIN AT TIMES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PYLE/27

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC AND THERMAL LOW PRES INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO SAT. THE BEST WINDS ARE FURTHER OFFSHORE...WHERE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE
LIGHTER NEAR SHORE...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. THE THERMAL LOW
PRES WILL MOVE WESTWARD THIS WEEKEND...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT
OVER THE WATERS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS TO DROP
BELOW 20 KT LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FCST
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL OCCUR
SOMETIME SUN.

EXPECT PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT AND A DOMINANT
PERIOD
AROUND 8 SECONDS. SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS WEEKEND
AS WINDS SLACKEN...REACHING AROUND 4 TO 5 FT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA- LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 040343
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
843 PM PDT FRI JUL  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP INLAND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MAY SPIN
SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COOLING LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER ALOFT.

&&

.UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS EVENING. AST-DLS AND AST-PDT
GRADIENTS ARE STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT WHICH SHOULD MEAN THAT
TEMPERATURES COOL A BIT MORE QUICKLY THIS EVENING THAN LAST.
TYPICALLY IT WOULD ALSO MEAN MARINE STRATUS WOULD PUSH FARTHER
INLAND...BUT THERE IS NO MARINE STRATUS TO SPEAK OF YET...SO THE
EXTENT OF THE INLAND PUSH WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON WHEN IT ACTUALLY
FORMS. THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT NEWPORT IS ONLY ABOUT 3.5
DEGREES...SO STRATUS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THAT AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND LIKELY PUSH UP THE COAST AND THEN INLAND. ADDED
SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER TO THE PORTLAND AREA FOR SUNDAY MORNING
BUT ANY CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY. BOWEN

.SHORT TERM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT FRI AFTERNOON EXTENDED FROM
THE SW U.S. TO OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NW. THE RIDGE...RUNNING
ACROSS SW OREGON...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MON. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE RIDGE WEAKENING SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COL OVER WESTERN OREGON THIS WEEKEND. UNDER THE
RIDGE NW ONSHORE PRES GRADIENTS HAVE STRENGTHENED SOME...WHICH
COUPLED WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL TAKE A LITTLE OF THE EDGE
OFF DAYTIME TEMPS FOR SAT BY CUTTING THEM DOWN A FEW DEGREES. MODELS
SHOW NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS AGAIN SUN...EXCEPT H8
TEMPS CREEP BACK UP TO AROUND 22 DEG C WHICH SHOULD PUT HIGH TEMPS
BACK CLOSE TO THU HIGHS. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD
FILL BACK IN ALONG THE COAST WITH A LIMITED PUSH OF MARINE CLOUDS UP
THE LOWER COLUMBIA. A WIND FLOW REVERSAL ALONG THE COAST INDICATED
BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOULD HELP SOME CLOUDS PUSH INTO THE OREGON
COAST RANGE SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON...BUT OVERALL AIR MASS EXPECTED
TO CHANGE LITTLE SO WILL STILL SEE INLAND TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE
90S. WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER IN THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES MON AFTERNOON AS GFS AND NAM SHOW SOME INSTABILITY COMING
UP FROM THE S OUT OF THE LOW OFF THE CA COAST.

.LONG TERM...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER COL REMAINING OVER OREGON
TUE AND WED FOR CONTINUED HOT WEATHER. THIS ALSO LEAVES THE S
CASCADES OPEN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ALOFT SNEAKING UP FROM THE
S...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LANE COUNTY CASCADES BOTH TUE AND WED. MODELS AT THIS POINT ARE
SUGGESTING SOME RELIEF TO THE EXTENDED HEAT WAVE COMING AROUND THU
AS THE UPPER LOW CUTOFF OFF THE CA COAST MOVES INLAND OVER CA GIVING
POTENTIALLY BRINGING A SW PUSH OF MARINE AIR INLAND. MODELS INDICATE
THE TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS THEN REINFORCED FRI AS
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN OFF THE N PACIFIC FOR EVEN COOLER AIR. WILL
TREND TEMPS DOWNWARD A LITTLE MORE FOR THU AND FRI GIVEN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN MODELS WITH THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION...BUT STILL HOLD SOME
RESERVATIONS IN BUYING COMPLETELY INTO THE CHANGE AS MODELS TEND TO
STRUGGLE WITH CUTOFF LOWS ESP THIS FAR INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HRS UNDER STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
EXPECT THE IFR STRATUS TO REFORM ALONG THE COAST LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN PUSH INTO THE COASTAL GAPS AND UP THE COLUMBIA
RIVER AS FAR AS KELSO OVERNIGHT. INLAND TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGH SAT. BREEZY NW WINDS RETURN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL PERSIST NEXT 24 HRS. NW WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY AGAIN AT TIMES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PYLE/27

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC AND THERMAL LOW PRES INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO SAT. THE BEST WINDS ARE FURTHER OFFSHORE...WHERE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE
LIGHTER NEAR SHORE...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. THE THERMAL LOW
PRES WILL MOVE WESTWARD THIS WEEKEND...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT
OVER THE WATERS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS TO DROP
BELOW 20 KT LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FCST
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL OCCUR
SOMETIME SUN.

EXPECT PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT AND A DOMINANT
PERIOD
AROUND 8 SECONDS. SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS WEEKEND
AS WINDS SLACKEN...REACHING AROUND 4 TO 5 FT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA- LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 032137
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
237 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP INLAND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MAY SPIN
SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COOLING LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER ALOFT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT FRI AFTERNOON EXTENDED FROM
THE SW U.S. TO OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NW. THE RIDGE...RUNNING
ACROSS SW OREGON...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MON. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE RIDGE WEAKENING SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COL OVER WESTERN OREGON THIS WEEKEND. UNDER THE
RIDGE NW ONSHORE PRES GRADIENTS HAVE STRENGTHENED SOME...WHICH
COUPLED WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL TAKE A LITTLE OF THE EDGE
OFF DAYTIME TEMPS FOR SAT BY CUTTING THEM DOWN A FEW DEGREES. MODELS
SHOW NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS AGAIN SUN...EXCEPT H8
TEMPS CREEP BACK UP TO AROUND 22 DEG C WHICH SHOULD PUT HIGH TEMPS
BACK CLOSE TO THU HIGHS. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD
FILL BACK IN ALONG THE COAST WITH A LIMITED PUSH OF MARINE CLOUDS UP
THE LOWER COLUMBIA. A WIND FLOW REVERSAL ALONG THE COAST INDICATED
BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOULD HELP SOME CLOUDS PUSH INTO THE OREGON
COAST RANGE SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON...BUT OVERALL AIR MASS EXPECTED
TO CHANGE LITTLE SO WILL STILL SEE INLAND TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE
90S. WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER IN THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES MON AFTERNOON AS GFS AND NAM SHOW SOME INSTABILITY COMING
UP FROM THE S OUT OF THE LOW OFF THE CA COAST.

.LONG TERM...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER COL REMAINING OVER OREGON
TUE AND WED FOR CONTINUED HOT WEATHER. THIS ALSO LEAVES THE S
CASCADES OPEN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ALOFT SNEAKING UP FROM THE
S...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LANE COUNTY CASCADES BOTH TUE AND WED. MODELS AT THIS POINT ARE
SUGGESTING SOME RELIEF TO THE EXTENDED HEAT WAVE COMING AROUND THU
AS THE UPPER LOW CUTOFF OFF THE CA COAST MOVES INLAND OVER CA GIVING
POTENTIALLY BRINGING A SW PUSH OF MARINE AIR INLAND. MODELS INDICATE
THE TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS THEN REINFORCED FRI AS
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN OFF THE N PACIFIC FOR EVEN COOLER AIR. WILL
TREND TEMPS DOWNWARD A LITTLE MORE FOR THU AND FRI GIVEN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN MODELS WITH THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION...BUT STILL HOLD SOME
RESERVATIONS IN BUYING COMPLETELY INTO THE CHANGE AS MODELS TEND TO
STRUGGLE WITH CUTOFF LOWS ESP THIS FAR INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WITH
STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THAT MARINE
STRATUS ALONG THE COAST HAS MOSTLY BURNED OFF AT THIS POINT...AND
EXPECT VFR FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THE IFR STRATUS TO REFORM ALONG THE COAST LATER
THIS EVENING...THEN PUSH INTO THE COASTAL GAPS AND UP THE COLUMBIA
RIVER AS FAR AS KELSO OVERNIGHT. INLAND TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGH SAT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC AND THERMAL LOW PRES INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO SAT. THE BEST WINDS ARE FURTHER OFFSHORE...WHERE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE
LIGHTER NEAR SHORE...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. THE THERMAL LOW
PRES WILL MOVE WESTWARD THIS WEEKEND...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT
OVER THE WATERS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS TO DROP
BELOW 20 KT LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FCST
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL OCCUR
SOMETIME SUN.

EXPECT PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT AND A DOMINANT PERIOD
AROUND 8 SECONDS. SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS WEEKEND
AS WINDS SLACKEN...REACHING AROUND 4 TO 5 FT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 032137
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
237 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO KEEP INLAND TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MAY SPIN
SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COOLING LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER ALOFT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT FRI AFTERNOON EXTENDED FROM
THE SW U.S. TO OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NW. THE RIDGE...RUNNING
ACROSS SW OREGON...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MON. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE RIDGE WEAKENING SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COL OVER WESTERN OREGON THIS WEEKEND. UNDER THE
RIDGE NW ONSHORE PRES GRADIENTS HAVE STRENGTHENED SOME...WHICH
COUPLED WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL TAKE A LITTLE OF THE EDGE
OFF DAYTIME TEMPS FOR SAT BY CUTTING THEM DOWN A FEW DEGREES. MODELS
SHOW NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS AGAIN SUN...EXCEPT H8
TEMPS CREEP BACK UP TO AROUND 22 DEG C WHICH SHOULD PUT HIGH TEMPS
BACK CLOSE TO THU HIGHS. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD
FILL BACK IN ALONG THE COAST WITH A LIMITED PUSH OF MARINE CLOUDS UP
THE LOWER COLUMBIA. A WIND FLOW REVERSAL ALONG THE COAST INDICATED
BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOULD HELP SOME CLOUDS PUSH INTO THE OREGON
COAST RANGE SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON...BUT OVERALL AIR MASS EXPECTED
TO CHANGE LITTLE SO WILL STILL SEE INLAND TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE
90S. WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER IN THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES MON AFTERNOON AS GFS AND NAM SHOW SOME INSTABILITY COMING
UP FROM THE S OUT OF THE LOW OFF THE CA COAST.

.LONG TERM...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER COL REMAINING OVER OREGON
TUE AND WED FOR CONTINUED HOT WEATHER. THIS ALSO LEAVES THE S
CASCADES OPEN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ALOFT SNEAKING UP FROM THE
S...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LANE COUNTY CASCADES BOTH TUE AND WED. MODELS AT THIS POINT ARE
SUGGESTING SOME RELIEF TO THE EXTENDED HEAT WAVE COMING AROUND THU
AS THE UPPER LOW CUTOFF OFF THE CA COAST MOVES INLAND OVER CA GIVING
POTENTIALLY BRINGING A SW PUSH OF MARINE AIR INLAND. MODELS INDICATE
THE TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS THEN REINFORCED FRI AS
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN OFF THE N PACIFIC FOR EVEN COOLER AIR. WILL
TREND TEMPS DOWNWARD A LITTLE MORE FOR THU AND FRI GIVEN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN MODELS WITH THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION...BUT STILL HOLD SOME
RESERVATIONS IN BUYING COMPLETELY INTO THE CHANGE AS MODELS TEND TO
STRUGGLE WITH CUTOFF LOWS ESP THIS FAR INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WITH
STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THAT MARINE
STRATUS ALONG THE COAST HAS MOSTLY BURNED OFF AT THIS POINT...AND
EXPECT VFR FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THE IFR STRATUS TO REFORM ALONG THE COAST LATER
THIS EVENING...THEN PUSH INTO THE COASTAL GAPS AND UP THE COLUMBIA
RIVER AS FAR AS KELSO OVERNIGHT. INLAND TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGH SAT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC AND THERMAL LOW PRES INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO SAT. THE BEST WINDS ARE FURTHER OFFSHORE...WHERE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE
LIGHTER NEAR SHORE...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. THE THERMAL LOW
PRES WILL MOVE WESTWARD THIS WEEKEND...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT
OVER THE WATERS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS TO DROP
BELOW 20 KT LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FCST
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL OCCUR
SOMETIME SUN.

EXPECT PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT AND A DOMINANT PERIOD
AROUND 8 SECONDS. SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS WEEKEND
AS WINDS SLACKEN...REACHING AROUND 4 TO 5 FT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 032135 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY DAYS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH AND
COOLER AIR MAY ARRIVE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RATHER WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THE 4TH SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY IN TERMS OF
TEMPS AND BREEZES...BUT SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE
THERMAL TROF SHIFTS OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS AN UPPER
LOW OVER CANADA AND A LITTLE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER B.C. AND
ALBERTA INTRUDES OVER WA THIS WEEKEND...BUT IT DOES NOT HAVE ANY
EFFECT ON THE WARM AIR OVER WRN WA.

.LONG TERM...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE AIR WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM
AND MARINE AIR WILL BE SHALLOW AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COAST. THE
FORECAST HIGHS WERE MAINLY WARMED UP A NOTCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF CALIF IS LIKELY TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND
ANY INSTABILITY AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS SHOULD ONLY WORK AS FAR NORTH
AS OREGON AT TIMES. FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND A
COOL UPPER TROUGH MAY ARRIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER NORTHERN B.C. AND ALBERTA. THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
WESTERN WA IS W/NW. THE AIR MASS IS DRY. SKIES ARE CLEAR FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A WEAK ONSHORE PUSH WILL BRING
MARINE STRATUS CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRES AND
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS ON SAT. 33

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT N WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 33

&&

.MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE NE PAC WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER PRES INLAND. THE RESULT IS LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN
WA. MODELS SHOW N/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS - A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AS
WELL.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AS A THERMAL TROUGH OF LOW
PRES FORMS ALONG THE COAST. THE FLOW WILL FLIP BACK TO ONSHORE ON
MONDAY AS LOW PRES SHIFTS INLAND. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SEATTLE...BELLEVUE...TACOMA...AND EAST PUGET
     SOUND LOWLANDS ZONES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS...CENTRAL AND EAST
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE



000
FXUS66 KSEW 032135 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY DAYS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH AND
COOLER AIR MAY ARRIVE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RATHER WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THE 4TH SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY IN TERMS OF
TEMPS AND BREEZES...BUT SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE
THERMAL TROF SHIFTS OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS AN UPPER
LOW OVER CANADA AND A LITTLE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER B.C. AND
ALBERTA INTRUDES OVER WA THIS WEEKEND...BUT IT DOES NOT HAVE ANY
EFFECT ON THE WARM AIR OVER WRN WA.

.LONG TERM...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE AIR WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM
AND MARINE AIR WILL BE SHALLOW AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COAST. THE
FORECAST HIGHS WERE MAINLY WARMED UP A NOTCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF CALIF IS LIKELY TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND
ANY INSTABILITY AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS SHOULD ONLY WORK AS FAR NORTH
AS OREGON AT TIMES. FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND A
COOL UPPER TROUGH MAY ARRIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER NORTHERN B.C. AND ALBERTA. THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
WESTERN WA IS W/NW. THE AIR MASS IS DRY. SKIES ARE CLEAR FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A WEAK ONSHORE PUSH WILL BRING
MARINE STRATUS CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRES AND
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS ON SAT. 33

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT N WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 33

&&

.MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE NE PAC WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER PRES INLAND. THE RESULT IS LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN
WA. MODELS SHOW N/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS - A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AS
WELL.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AS A THERMAL TROUGH OF LOW
PRES FORMS ALONG THE COAST. THE FLOW WILL FLIP BACK TO ONSHORE ON
MONDAY AS LOW PRES SHIFTS INLAND. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SEATTLE...BELLEVUE...TACOMA...AND EAST PUGET
     SOUND LOWLANDS ZONES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS...CENTRAL AND EAST
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE



000
FXUS66 KSEW 032135 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY DAYS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH AND
COOLER AIR MAY ARRIVE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RATHER WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THE 4TH SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY IN TERMS OF
TEMPS AND BREEZES...BUT SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE
THERMAL TROF SHIFTS OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS AN UPPER
LOW OVER CANADA AND A LITTLE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER B.C. AND
ALBERTA INTRUDES OVER WA THIS WEEKEND...BUT IT DOES NOT HAVE ANY
EFFECT ON THE WARM AIR OVER WRN WA.

.LONG TERM...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE AIR WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM
AND MARINE AIR WILL BE SHALLOW AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COAST. THE
FORECAST HIGHS WERE MAINLY WARMED UP A NOTCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF CALIF IS LIKELY TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND
ANY INSTABILITY AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS SHOULD ONLY WORK AS FAR NORTH
AS OREGON AT TIMES. FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND A
COOL UPPER TROUGH MAY ARRIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER NORTHERN B.C. AND ALBERTA. THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
WESTERN WA IS W/NW. THE AIR MASS IS DRY. SKIES ARE CLEAR FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A WEAK ONSHORE PUSH WILL BRING
MARINE STRATUS CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRES AND
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS ON SAT. 33

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT N WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 33

&&

.MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE NE PAC WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER PRES INLAND. THE RESULT IS LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN
WA. MODELS SHOW N/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS - A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AS
WELL.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AS A THERMAL TROUGH OF LOW
PRES FORMS ALONG THE COAST. THE FLOW WILL FLIP BACK TO ONSHORE ON
MONDAY AS LOW PRES SHIFTS INLAND. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SEATTLE...BELLEVUE...TACOMA...AND EAST PUGET
     SOUND LOWLANDS ZONES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS...CENTRAL AND EAST
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE



000
FXUS66 KSEW 032135 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY DAYS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH AND
COOLER AIR MAY ARRIVE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RATHER WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THE 4TH SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY IN TERMS OF
TEMPS AND BREEZES...BUT SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE
THERMAL TROF SHIFTS OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS AN UPPER
LOW OVER CANADA AND A LITTLE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER B.C. AND
ALBERTA INTRUDES OVER WA THIS WEEKEND...BUT IT DOES NOT HAVE ANY
EFFECT ON THE WARM AIR OVER WRN WA.

.LONG TERM...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE AIR WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM
AND MARINE AIR WILL BE SHALLOW AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COAST. THE
FORECAST HIGHS WERE MAINLY WARMED UP A NOTCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF CALIF IS LIKELY TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND
ANY INSTABILITY AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS SHOULD ONLY WORK AS FAR NORTH
AS OREGON AT TIMES. FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND A
COOL UPPER TROUGH MAY ARRIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER NORTHERN B.C. AND ALBERTA. THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
WESTERN WA IS W/NW. THE AIR MASS IS DRY. SKIES ARE CLEAR FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A WEAK ONSHORE PUSH WILL BRING
MARINE STRATUS CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRES AND
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS ON SAT. 33

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT N WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 33

&&

.MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE NE PAC WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER PRES INLAND. THE RESULT IS LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN
WA. MODELS SHOW N/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS - A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AS
WELL.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AS A THERMAL TROUGH OF LOW
PRES FORMS ALONG THE COAST. THE FLOW WILL FLIP BACK TO ONSHORE ON
MONDAY AS LOW PRES SHIFTS INLAND. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SEATTLE...BELLEVUE...TACOMA...AND EAST PUGET
     SOUND LOWLANDS ZONES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS...CENTRAL AND EAST
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE



000
FXUS66 KSEW 032134
AFDSEW

ZCZC SEAWRKAFD 032133
TTAA00 KSEA DDHHMM

- KSEA 032024
WRKAFD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY DAYS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH AND
COOLER AIR MAY ARRIVE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RATHER WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THE 4TH SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY IN TERMS OF
TEMPS AND BREEZES...BUT SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE
THERMAL TROF SHIFTS OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS AN UPPER
LOW OVER CANADA AND A LITTLE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER B.C. AND
ALBERTA INTRUDES OVER WA THIS WEEKEND...BUT IT DOES NOT HAVE ANY
EFFECT ON THE WARM AIR OVER WRN WA.

.LONG TERM...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE AIR WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM
AND MARINE AIR WILL BE SHALLOW AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COAST. THE
FORECAST HIGHS WERE MAINLY WARMED UP A NOTCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF CALIF IS LIKELY TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND
ANY INSTABILITY AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS SHOULD ONLY WORK AS FAR NORTH
AS OREGON AT TIMES. FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND A
COOL UPPER TROUGH MAY ARRIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER NORTHERN B.C. AND ALBERTA. THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
WESTERN WA IS W/NW. THE AIR MASS IS DRY. SKIES ARE CLEAR FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A WEAK ONSHORE PUSH WILL BRING
MARINE STRATUS CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRES AND
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS ON SAT. 33

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT N WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 33

&&

.MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE NE PAC WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER PRES INLAND. THE RESULT IS LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN
WA. MODELS SHOW N/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS - A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AS
WELL.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AS A THERMAL TROUGH OF LOW
PRES FORMS ALONG THE COAST. THE FLOW WILL FLIP BACK TO ONSHORE ON
MONDAY AS LOW PRES SHIFTS INLAND. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SEATTLE...BELLEVUE...TACOMA...AND EAST PUGET
     SOUND LOWLANDS ZONES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS...CENTRAL AND EAST
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE



000
FXUS66 KSEW 032134
AFDSEW

ZCZC SEAWRKAFD 032133
TTAA00 KSEA DDHHMM

- KSEA 032024
WRKAFD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY DAYS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH AND
COOLER AIR MAY ARRIVE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RATHER WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THE 4TH SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY IN TERMS OF
TEMPS AND BREEZES...BUT SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE
THERMAL TROF SHIFTS OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS AN UPPER
LOW OVER CANADA AND A LITTLE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER B.C. AND
ALBERTA INTRUDES OVER WA THIS WEEKEND...BUT IT DOES NOT HAVE ANY
EFFECT ON THE WARM AIR OVER WRN WA.

.LONG TERM...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE AIR WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM
AND MARINE AIR WILL BE SHALLOW AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COAST. THE
FORECAST HIGHS WERE MAINLY WARMED UP A NOTCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF CALIF IS LIKELY TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND
ANY INSTABILITY AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS SHOULD ONLY WORK AS FAR NORTH
AS OREGON AT TIMES. FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND A
COOL UPPER TROUGH MAY ARRIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER NORTHERN B.C. AND ALBERTA. THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
WESTERN WA IS W/NW. THE AIR MASS IS DRY. SKIES ARE CLEAR FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A WEAK ONSHORE PUSH WILL BRING
MARINE STRATUS CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRES AND
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS ON SAT. 33

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT N WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 33

&&

.MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE NE PAC WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER PRES INLAND. THE RESULT IS LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN
WA. MODELS SHOW N/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS - A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AS
WELL.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AS A THERMAL TROUGH OF LOW
PRES FORMS ALONG THE COAST. THE FLOW WILL FLIP BACK TO ONSHORE ON
MONDAY AS LOW PRES SHIFTS INLAND. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SEATTLE...BELLEVUE...TACOMA...AND EAST PUGET
     SOUND LOWLANDS ZONES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS...CENTRAL AND EAST
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE




000
FXUS66 KSEW 032134
AFDSEW

ZCZC SEAWRKAFD 032133
TTAA00 KSEA DDHHMM

- KSEA 032024
WRKAFD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY DAYS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH AND
COOLER AIR MAY ARRIVE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RATHER WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THE 4TH SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY IN TERMS OF
TEMPS AND BREEZES...BUT SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE
THERMAL TROF SHIFTS OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS AN UPPER
LOW OVER CANADA AND A LITTLE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER B.C. AND
ALBERTA INTRUDES OVER WA THIS WEEKEND...BUT IT DOES NOT HAVE ANY
EFFECT ON THE WARM AIR OVER WRN WA.

.LONG TERM...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE AIR WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM
AND MARINE AIR WILL BE SHALLOW AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COAST. THE
FORECAST HIGHS WERE MAINLY WARMED UP A NOTCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF CALIF IS LIKELY TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND
ANY INSTABILITY AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS SHOULD ONLY WORK AS FAR NORTH
AS OREGON AT TIMES. FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND A
COOL UPPER TROUGH MAY ARRIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER NORTHERN B.C. AND ALBERTA. THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
WESTERN WA IS W/NW. THE AIR MASS IS DRY. SKIES ARE CLEAR FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A WEAK ONSHORE PUSH WILL BRING
MARINE STRATUS CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRES AND
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS ON SAT. 33

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT N WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 33

&&

.MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE NE PAC WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER PRES INLAND. THE RESULT IS LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN
WA. MODELS SHOW N/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS - A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AS
WELL.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AS A THERMAL TROUGH OF LOW
PRES FORMS ALONG THE COAST. THE FLOW WILL FLIP BACK TO ONSHORE ON
MONDAY AS LOW PRES SHIFTS INLAND. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SEATTLE...BELLEVUE...TACOMA...AND EAST PUGET
     SOUND LOWLANDS ZONES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS...CENTRAL AND EAST
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE




000
FXUS66 KSEW 032134
AFDSEW

ZCZC SEAWRKAFD 032133
TTAA00 KSEA DDHHMM

- KSEA 032024
WRKAFD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY DAYS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH AND
COOLER AIR MAY ARRIVE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RATHER WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THE 4TH SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY IN TERMS OF
TEMPS AND BREEZES...BUT SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE
THERMAL TROF SHIFTS OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS AN UPPER
LOW OVER CANADA AND A LITTLE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER B.C. AND
ALBERTA INTRUDES OVER WA THIS WEEKEND...BUT IT DOES NOT HAVE ANY
EFFECT ON THE WARM AIR OVER WRN WA.

.LONG TERM...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE AIR WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM
AND MARINE AIR WILL BE SHALLOW AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COAST. THE
FORECAST HIGHS WERE MAINLY WARMED UP A NOTCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF CALIF IS LIKELY TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND
ANY INSTABILITY AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS SHOULD ONLY WORK AS FAR NORTH
AS OREGON AT TIMES. FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND A
COOL UPPER TROUGH MAY ARRIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER NORTHERN B.C. AND ALBERTA. THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
WESTERN WA IS W/NW. THE AIR MASS IS DRY. SKIES ARE CLEAR FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A WEAK ONSHORE PUSH WILL BRING
MARINE STRATUS CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRES AND
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS ON SAT. 33

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT N WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 33

&&

.MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE NE PAC WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER PRES INLAND. THE RESULT IS LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN
WA. MODELS SHOW N/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS - A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AS
WELL.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AS A THERMAL TROUGH OF LOW
PRES FORMS ALONG THE COAST. THE FLOW WILL FLIP BACK TO ONSHORE ON
MONDAY AS LOW PRES SHIFTS INLAND. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SEATTLE...BELLEVUE...TACOMA...AND EAST PUGET
     SOUND LOWLANDS ZONES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS...CENTRAL AND EAST
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE




000
FXUS66 KSEW 032134
AFDSEW

ZCZC SEAWRKAFD 032133
TTAA00 KSEA DDHHMM

- KSEA 032024
WRKAFD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY DAYS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH AND
COOLER AIR MAY ARRIVE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RATHER WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THE 4TH SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY IN TERMS OF
TEMPS AND BREEZES...BUT SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE
THERMAL TROF SHIFTS OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS AN UPPER
LOW OVER CANADA AND A LITTLE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER B.C. AND
ALBERTA INTRUDES OVER WA THIS WEEKEND...BUT IT DOES NOT HAVE ANY
EFFECT ON THE WARM AIR OVER WRN WA.

.LONG TERM...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE AIR WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM
AND MARINE AIR WILL BE SHALLOW AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COAST. THE
FORECAST HIGHS WERE MAINLY WARMED UP A NOTCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF CALIF IS LIKELY TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND
ANY INSTABILITY AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS SHOULD ONLY WORK AS FAR NORTH
AS OREGON AT TIMES. FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND A
COOL UPPER TROUGH MAY ARRIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER NORTHERN B.C. AND ALBERTA. THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
WESTERN WA IS W/NW. THE AIR MASS IS DRY. SKIES ARE CLEAR FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A WEAK ONSHORE PUSH WILL BRING
MARINE STRATUS CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRES AND
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS ON SAT. 33

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT N WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 33

&&

.MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE NE PAC WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER PRES INLAND. THE RESULT IS LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN
WA. MODELS SHOW N/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS - A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AS
WELL.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AS A THERMAL TROUGH OF LOW
PRES FORMS ALONG THE COAST. THE FLOW WILL FLIP BACK TO ONSHORE ON
MONDAY AS LOW PRES SHIFTS INLAND. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SEATTLE...BELLEVUE...TACOMA...AND EAST PUGET
     SOUND LOWLANDS ZONES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS...CENTRAL AND EAST
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE




000
FXUS66 KOTX 032128
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
228 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured into the Independence Day
weekend. Winds will increase as systems move across the upper
level ridge. This evening and Saturday winds will be increasing
as a front tries to sag in from Canada, eventually forcing winds
more from the north. Breezy conditions continue on Sunday. It is
still looking dry and warm into the beginning of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday: The Inland NW will be in a west to
northwest flow much of this period and the occasional shortwave
passes, carrying minor shower chances and occasionally breezy
conditions. Yet as a whole the pattern remains dry with above
normal temperatures.

Between tonight and Saturday some minor ripples in the
west-northwest flow bring a few middle to high clouds, but
otherwise dry conditions. The first substantial shortwave
approaches from BC into Saturday and the thermal low over the
Columbia Basin migrates southeastward. This will increase the
north-south gradient and increase north to northwesterly winds
down the Okanogan between tonight and Saturday. Speeds in the 15
to 25 mph range will be possible here by Saturday morning, with
gusts in the 35 to 40 mph range possible by afternoon. Meanwhile
southwest winds will continue across the lower Columbia Basin into
the Palouse through the Idaho Panhandle.

Between Saturday night and Sunday night the first substantial
shortwave drops across the Inland NW. This comes with a marginal
increase in layer moisture and instability, especially toward the
ID/MT border and perhaps near the Cascade crest. Look for some
band of clouds to drop in Saturday night into Sunday morning,
before some drier air slips in from the north later Sunday. A
slight threat of showers and thunderstorms skim by the ID/MT
border Saturday night. Other chances continue across the central
and lower ID Panhandle mountains into the Camas Prairie in the
developing northwest flow for Sunday afternoon and early evening.
Otherwise the region will remain dry, with clearing into Monday.

The more notable and continuing feature will be winds. Just in
time to heighten the concern around the Fourth of July evening,
speeds will be or rise into in the breezy category. Directions
turn north-northwest over much of the region Saturday night,
before they gradually shift north-northeast into Sunday. We will
continue to see some channeling and higher winds down the Okanogan
Valley and out through the Purcell Trench. Speeds then begin to
subside Sunday afternoon and especially Sunday night.

Between Monday night and Tuesday night the second substantial
shortwave drops through. This system carries more moisture and
instability and overall has a better threat of showers and
thunderstorms. However there remains a fair amount of model
disagreement over just how much of the threat it will bring. Some
models hold the main chances across the ID Panhandle mountains and
far northeast WA mountains. Others bring the threat over a broader
portion of the Inland NW. For now on Monday night clouds increase
some and the main shower threat comes into the Okanogan Highlands
through the northern Panhandle. By Tuesday expanding surface-based
instability and lift with the incoming wave will increase the
threat of showers and thunderstorms. Still, the overall best
chances will remain across the mountains. Breezy conditions also
accompany this shortwave but compared to the weekend winds they
don`t look at strong.

From Wednesday to Friday model agreement falters. Initially the
region will remain in north or westerly flow, with a ridge to the
west and low pressure off the central CA coast. That CA low
migrates inland through the end of the week and some instability
wraps around the mountains, while the deeper Columbia Basin
remains relatively stable. Where models disagree is over whether
some energy coming around that incoming low drifts north into our
region to bring at least an isolated shower and thunderstorm
threat. Through Thursday most models keep the threat south of the
region of just into our Blues/Camas Prairie. The GFS brings
chances into the Cascades by Thursday, but for now this seems an
outlier. By next Friday better chances come to the southeast WA
and the lower Panhandle and move up along the ID/MT border, with a
few solutions wrapping some threat back across the northern WA
mountains. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A dry airmass will allow for VFR conditions at all TAF
sites. Winds will increase in the late afternoon across EAT and
remain occasionally breezy through Saturday. Elevated smoke
layers from area wildfires will appear as thin mid level clouds
but surface visibility will not be affected. /J. Cote`


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
There are elevated risk for rapidly spreading wildfires through
the weekend as winds increase. Winds increase locally near the
Cascades Friday afternoon then across most of Central and Eastern
Washington on Saturday. Gusty winds will continue well into Sunday
with gusty northeast winds spreading into the North Idaho
Panhandle Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  96  66  87  62  92 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  62  94  62  84  58  90 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Pullman        58  94  57  89  53  91 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Lewiston       69 102  70  98  66  98 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Colville       64  98  60  92  58  95 /   0   0  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      55  93  54  83  50  89 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        62  93  59  83  54  89 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Moses Lake     68 102  70  97  65  99 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      73 102  72  98  71 100 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           67  98  63  96  63  98 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Lewis and Southern
     Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Wenatchee Area.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for East Washington
     Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East Washington South
     Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

     Red Flag Warning from Noon to 10 PM PDT Saturday for East
     Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 032128
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
228 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured into the Independence Day
weekend. Winds will increase as systems move across the upper
level ridge. This evening and Saturday winds will be increasing
as a front tries to sag in from Canada, eventually forcing winds
more from the north. Breezy conditions continue on Sunday. It is
still looking dry and warm into the beginning of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday: The Inland NW will be in a west to
northwest flow much of this period and the occasional shortwave
passes, carrying minor shower chances and occasionally breezy
conditions. Yet as a whole the pattern remains dry with above
normal temperatures.

Between tonight and Saturday some minor ripples in the
west-northwest flow bring a few middle to high clouds, but
otherwise dry conditions. The first substantial shortwave
approaches from BC into Saturday and the thermal low over the
Columbia Basin migrates southeastward. This will increase the
north-south gradient and increase north to northwesterly winds
down the Okanogan between tonight and Saturday. Speeds in the 15
to 25 mph range will be possible here by Saturday morning, with
gusts in the 35 to 40 mph range possible by afternoon. Meanwhile
southwest winds will continue across the lower Columbia Basin into
the Palouse through the Idaho Panhandle.

Between Saturday night and Sunday night the first substantial
shortwave drops across the Inland NW. This comes with a marginal
increase in layer moisture and instability, especially toward the
ID/MT border and perhaps near the Cascade crest. Look for some
band of clouds to drop in Saturday night into Sunday morning,
before some drier air slips in from the north later Sunday. A
slight threat of showers and thunderstorms skim by the ID/MT
border Saturday night. Other chances continue across the central
and lower ID Panhandle mountains into the Camas Prairie in the
developing northwest flow for Sunday afternoon and early evening.
Otherwise the region will remain dry, with clearing into Monday.

The more notable and continuing feature will be winds. Just in
time to heighten the concern around the Fourth of July evening,
speeds will be or rise into in the breezy category. Directions
turn north-northwest over much of the region Saturday night,
before they gradually shift north-northeast into Sunday. We will
continue to see some channeling and higher winds down the Okanogan
Valley and out through the Purcell Trench. Speeds then begin to
subside Sunday afternoon and especially Sunday night.

Between Monday night and Tuesday night the second substantial
shortwave drops through. This system carries more moisture and
instability and overall has a better threat of showers and
thunderstorms. However there remains a fair amount of model
disagreement over just how much of the threat it will bring. Some
models hold the main chances across the ID Panhandle mountains and
far northeast WA mountains. Others bring the threat over a broader
portion of the Inland NW. For now on Monday night clouds increase
some and the main shower threat comes into the Okanogan Highlands
through the northern Panhandle. By Tuesday expanding surface-based
instability and lift with the incoming wave will increase the
threat of showers and thunderstorms. Still, the overall best
chances will remain across the mountains. Breezy conditions also
accompany this shortwave but compared to the weekend winds they
don`t look at strong.

From Wednesday to Friday model agreement falters. Initially the
region will remain in north or westerly flow, with a ridge to the
west and low pressure off the central CA coast. That CA low
migrates inland through the end of the week and some instability
wraps around the mountains, while the deeper Columbia Basin
remains relatively stable. Where models disagree is over whether
some energy coming around that incoming low drifts north into our
region to bring at least an isolated shower and thunderstorm
threat. Through Thursday most models keep the threat south of the
region of just into our Blues/Camas Prairie. The GFS brings
chances into the Cascades by Thursday, but for now this seems an
outlier. By next Friday better chances come to the southeast WA
and the lower Panhandle and move up along the ID/MT border, with a
few solutions wrapping some threat back across the northern WA
mountains. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A dry airmass will allow for VFR conditions at all TAF
sites. Winds will increase in the late afternoon across EAT and
remain occasionally breezy through Saturday. Elevated smoke
layers from area wildfires will appear as thin mid level clouds
but surface visibility will not be affected. /J. Cote`


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
There are elevated risk for rapidly spreading wildfires through
the weekend as winds increase. Winds increase locally near the
Cascades Friday afternoon then across most of Central and Eastern
Washington on Saturday. Gusty winds will continue well into Sunday
with gusty northeast winds spreading into the North Idaho
Panhandle Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  96  66  87  62  92 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  62  94  62  84  58  90 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Pullman        58  94  57  89  53  91 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Lewiston       69 102  70  98  66  98 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Colville       64  98  60  92  58  95 /   0   0  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      55  93  54  83  50  89 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        62  93  59  83  54  89 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Moses Lake     68 102  70  97  65  99 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      73 102  72  98  71 100 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           67  98  63  96  63  98 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Lewis and Southern
     Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Wenatchee Area.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for East Washington
     Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East Washington South
     Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

     Red Flag Warning from Noon to 10 PM PDT Saturday for East
     Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 032128
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
228 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured into the Independence Day
weekend. Winds will increase as systems move across the upper
level ridge. This evening and Saturday winds will be increasing
as a front tries to sag in from Canada, eventually forcing winds
more from the north. Breezy conditions continue on Sunday. It is
still looking dry and warm into the beginning of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday: The Inland NW will be in a west to
northwest flow much of this period and the occasional shortwave
passes, carrying minor shower chances and occasionally breezy
conditions. Yet as a whole the pattern remains dry with above
normal temperatures.

Between tonight and Saturday some minor ripples in the
west-northwest flow bring a few middle to high clouds, but
otherwise dry conditions. The first substantial shortwave
approaches from BC into Saturday and the thermal low over the
Columbia Basin migrates southeastward. This will increase the
north-south gradient and increase north to northwesterly winds
down the Okanogan between tonight and Saturday. Speeds in the 15
to 25 mph range will be possible here by Saturday morning, with
gusts in the 35 to 40 mph range possible by afternoon. Meanwhile
southwest winds will continue across the lower Columbia Basin into
the Palouse through the Idaho Panhandle.

Between Saturday night and Sunday night the first substantial
shortwave drops across the Inland NW. This comes with a marginal
increase in layer moisture and instability, especially toward the
ID/MT border and perhaps near the Cascade crest. Look for some
band of clouds to drop in Saturday night into Sunday morning,
before some drier air slips in from the north later Sunday. A
slight threat of showers and thunderstorms skim by the ID/MT
border Saturday night. Other chances continue across the central
and lower ID Panhandle mountains into the Camas Prairie in the
developing northwest flow for Sunday afternoon and early evening.
Otherwise the region will remain dry, with clearing into Monday.

The more notable and continuing feature will be winds. Just in
time to heighten the concern around the Fourth of July evening,
speeds will be or rise into in the breezy category. Directions
turn north-northwest over much of the region Saturday night,
before they gradually shift north-northeast into Sunday. We will
continue to see some channeling and higher winds down the Okanogan
Valley and out through the Purcell Trench. Speeds then begin to
subside Sunday afternoon and especially Sunday night.

Between Monday night and Tuesday night the second substantial
shortwave drops through. This system carries more moisture and
instability and overall has a better threat of showers and
thunderstorms. However there remains a fair amount of model
disagreement over just how much of the threat it will bring. Some
models hold the main chances across the ID Panhandle mountains and
far northeast WA mountains. Others bring the threat over a broader
portion of the Inland NW. For now on Monday night clouds increase
some and the main shower threat comes into the Okanogan Highlands
through the northern Panhandle. By Tuesday expanding surface-based
instability and lift with the incoming wave will increase the
threat of showers and thunderstorms. Still, the overall best
chances will remain across the mountains. Breezy conditions also
accompany this shortwave but compared to the weekend winds they
don`t look at strong.

From Wednesday to Friday model agreement falters. Initially the
region will remain in north or westerly flow, with a ridge to the
west and low pressure off the central CA coast. That CA low
migrates inland through the end of the week and some instability
wraps around the mountains, while the deeper Columbia Basin
remains relatively stable. Where models disagree is over whether
some energy coming around that incoming low drifts north into our
region to bring at least an isolated shower and thunderstorm
threat. Through Thursday most models keep the threat south of the
region of just into our Blues/Camas Prairie. The GFS brings
chances into the Cascades by Thursday, but for now this seems an
outlier. By next Friday better chances come to the southeast WA
and the lower Panhandle and move up along the ID/MT border, with a
few solutions wrapping some threat back across the northern WA
mountains. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A dry airmass will allow for VFR conditions at all TAF
sites. Winds will increase in the late afternoon across EAT and
remain occasionally breezy through Saturday. Elevated smoke
layers from area wildfires will appear as thin mid level clouds
but surface visibility will not be affected. /J. Cote`


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
There are elevated risk for rapidly spreading wildfires through
the weekend as winds increase. Winds increase locally near the
Cascades Friday afternoon then across most of Central and Eastern
Washington on Saturday. Gusty winds will continue well into Sunday
with gusty northeast winds spreading into the North Idaho
Panhandle Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  96  66  87  62  92 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  62  94  62  84  58  90 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Pullman        58  94  57  89  53  91 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Lewiston       69 102  70  98  66  98 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Colville       64  98  60  92  58  95 /   0   0  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      55  93  54  83  50  89 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        62  93  59  83  54  89 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Moses Lake     68 102  70  97  65  99 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      73 102  72  98  71 100 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           67  98  63  96  63  98 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Lewis and Southern
     Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Wenatchee Area.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for East Washington
     Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East Washington South
     Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).

     Red Flag Warning from Noon to 10 PM PDT Saturday for East
     Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 031734
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1034 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured into the Independence Day
weekend. Today will be the warmest day, with many valley sites
topping the century mark. Winds will increase as systems move
across the upper level ridge. Today and Saturday winds will be
increasing as a front tries to sag in from Canada, eventually
forcing winds more from the north. It is still looking dry and
warm into the beginning of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

...HOT..DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH INDEPENDENCE
DAY...

Today through Saturday...The ridge of high pressure will start to
be suppressed by an upper trough that will descend out of British
Columbia for the holiday weekend. Expect one more day of
widespread triple digit temperatures today. We may see some thin
high clouds over the northern zones but no precipitation for the
weekend. The main weather concern will be breezy to windy
conditions that will combine with very dry conditions to elevate
fire weather concerns. The first area of concern is the Cascade
gap valleys where northwest winds will be funneled down the
valleys. The Fire Weather Watch for fire wx zone WAZ677, which
includes the Wenatchee Valley, has been upgraded to a Red Flag
Warning. High resolution models show the winds will be right at or
just below warning criteria during this afternoon when relative
humidity will be at its lowest. We are acting on the side of
caution since fuels are much drier that usual for this time of
year and despite the widespread banning of pyrotechnics, humans
love their fireworks. The Red Flag Warning remains in effect for
WAZ676, including the Kittitas and Yakima Valleys.

The next concern will shift to the Okanogan Valley, Waterville
Plateau and western Columbia Basin on Saturday. Winds will shift
to northerly in response to an cold front approaching from the
north. The surface pressure gradient will tighten Saturday with
sustained winds increasing to 15 to 25 mph by early Saturday
morning. Winds will continue to increase through the day with
gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible. Models have been backing off a bit
on the strength of the wind speeds but even the lower range will
easily reach critical fire weather criteria when combined with
very low RH during the afternoon and evening hours. Any fire
starts on Friday will be problematic in these windy conditions for
Saturday. The elevated winds will keep overnight temperatures in
the upper 60s to low 70s for the exposed areas while the more
sheltered areas will cool off a bit more. Daytime temperatures for
Independence day will be mainly in the 90s, a little more
comfortable but still well above normal. /Kelch

Saturday night through Friday...In the big picture an interesting
pattern is setting up through this portion of the forecast
period. A rex block (high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska and low
pressure off the CA coast) will keep the region in a northwest to
northerly flow through the middle of the week. A pair of
disturbances will drop through the northeast zones and result in
slightly cooler temperatures...breezy/gusty winds and a chance for
showers and embedded thunderstorms at times.

Saturday night and Sunday the first wave will drop down out of
B.C. Winds will increase through the day on Saturday and will
continue down the Okanogan valley and the Kettle river
valley...with the north winds gradually getting into the Purcell
trench Saturday night and Sunday. The atmosphere will remain very
dry with poor overnight recoveries. A Red Flag warning is in place
through Saturday evening and that looks like a very good call
still. The models are hinting at some moisture associated with
this front just clipping the north Idaho Panhandle. Typically
fronts that originate in the northern Canadian plains are pretty
dry and the decision was made to keep conditions dry. Temperatures
will drop 3-5 degrees on Sunday but will still remain well above
seasonal averages.

Weak high pressure Sunday into Monday will give way to another
wave Monday night and Tuesday taking a track very close to the
one on Saturday. Model guidance has been very similar the past
several runs showing a decent surge of mid level moisture with the
front. As such pops were bumped up a bit for the northeast
Washington mountains and the Idaho Panhandle. Instability
parameters are such that embedded thunderstorms will be possible
late in the day and early evening. The models diverge Tuesday
night and Wednesday, with one model hanging onto the shortwave and
others keeping the flow progressive. Pops were kept along the
ID/MT border into Wednesday but confidence is low that anything
other than some fair weather cumulus will develop. Temperatures
will remain in the 80s and 90s.

Thursday and Friday...Model consistency really begins to fail
Thursday and Friday. The consensus will be for weak high pressure
to build back into the region both days for a slight warm up and
very dry conditions. Stay tuned. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Dry airmass will allow for VFR conditions at all TAF
sites. Winds will increase in the late afternoon across the EAT.
Elevated smoke layers from area wildfires will appear as thin mid
level clouds but surface visibility will not be affected. /J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane       100  68  96  65  89  64 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  97  63  94  61  86  59 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        97  58  93  57  91  55 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston      104  70 101  69  98  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville      102  64  98  60  93  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      96  55  93  54  85  51 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        97  62  92  59  85  56 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Moses Lake    106  68 102  70  97  66 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee     105  74 101  72  98  72 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak          104  69  98  63  96  64 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Lewis and Southern
     Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Wenatchee Area.

     Red Flag Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone
     677)-East Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone
     676).

     Red Flag Warning from Noon to 10 PM PDT Saturday for East
     Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 031734
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1034 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured into the Independence Day
weekend. Today will be the warmest day, with many valley sites
topping the century mark. Winds will increase as systems move
across the upper level ridge. Today and Saturday winds will be
increasing as a front tries to sag in from Canada, eventually
forcing winds more from the north. It is still looking dry and
warm into the beginning of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

...HOT..DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH INDEPENDENCE
DAY...

Today through Saturday...The ridge of high pressure will start to
be suppressed by an upper trough that will descend out of British
Columbia for the holiday weekend. Expect one more day of
widespread triple digit temperatures today. We may see some thin
high clouds over the northern zones but no precipitation for the
weekend. The main weather concern will be breezy to windy
conditions that will combine with very dry conditions to elevate
fire weather concerns. The first area of concern is the Cascade
gap valleys where northwest winds will be funneled down the
valleys. The Fire Weather Watch for fire wx zone WAZ677, which
includes the Wenatchee Valley, has been upgraded to a Red Flag
Warning. High resolution models show the winds will be right at or
just below warning criteria during this afternoon when relative
humidity will be at its lowest. We are acting on the side of
caution since fuels are much drier that usual for this time of
year and despite the widespread banning of pyrotechnics, humans
love their fireworks. The Red Flag Warning remains in effect for
WAZ676, including the Kittitas and Yakima Valleys.

The next concern will shift to the Okanogan Valley, Waterville
Plateau and western Columbia Basin on Saturday. Winds will shift
to northerly in response to an cold front approaching from the
north. The surface pressure gradient will tighten Saturday with
sustained winds increasing to 15 to 25 mph by early Saturday
morning. Winds will continue to increase through the day with
gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible. Models have been backing off a bit
on the strength of the wind speeds but even the lower range will
easily reach critical fire weather criteria when combined with
very low RH during the afternoon and evening hours. Any fire
starts on Friday will be problematic in these windy conditions for
Saturday. The elevated winds will keep overnight temperatures in
the upper 60s to low 70s for the exposed areas while the more
sheltered areas will cool off a bit more. Daytime temperatures for
Independence day will be mainly in the 90s, a little more
comfortable but still well above normal. /Kelch

Saturday night through Friday...In the big picture an interesting
pattern is setting up through this portion of the forecast
period. A rex block (high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska and low
pressure off the CA coast) will keep the region in a northwest to
northerly flow through the middle of the week. A pair of
disturbances will drop through the northeast zones and result in
slightly cooler temperatures...breezy/gusty winds and a chance for
showers and embedded thunderstorms at times.

Saturday night and Sunday the first wave will drop down out of
B.C. Winds will increase through the day on Saturday and will
continue down the Okanogan valley and the Kettle river
valley...with the north winds gradually getting into the Purcell
trench Saturday night and Sunday. The atmosphere will remain very
dry with poor overnight recoveries. A Red Flag warning is in place
through Saturday evening and that looks like a very good call
still. The models are hinting at some moisture associated with
this front just clipping the north Idaho Panhandle. Typically
fronts that originate in the northern Canadian plains are pretty
dry and the decision was made to keep conditions dry. Temperatures
will drop 3-5 degrees on Sunday but will still remain well above
seasonal averages.

Weak high pressure Sunday into Monday will give way to another
wave Monday night and Tuesday taking a track very close to the
one on Saturday. Model guidance has been very similar the past
several runs showing a decent surge of mid level moisture with the
front. As such pops were bumped up a bit for the northeast
Washington mountains and the Idaho Panhandle. Instability
parameters are such that embedded thunderstorms will be possible
late in the day and early evening. The models diverge Tuesday
night and Wednesday, with one model hanging onto the shortwave and
others keeping the flow progressive. Pops were kept along the
ID/MT border into Wednesday but confidence is low that anything
other than some fair weather cumulus will develop. Temperatures
will remain in the 80s and 90s.

Thursday and Friday...Model consistency really begins to fail
Thursday and Friday. The consensus will be for weak high pressure
to build back into the region both days for a slight warm up and
very dry conditions. Stay tuned. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Dry airmass will allow for VFR conditions at all TAF
sites. Winds will increase in the late afternoon across the EAT.
Elevated smoke layers from area wildfires will appear as thin mid
level clouds but surface visibility will not be affected. /J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane       100  68  96  65  89  64 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  97  63  94  61  86  59 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        97  58  93  57  91  55 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston      104  70 101  69  98  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville      102  64  98  60  93  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      96  55  93  54  85  51 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        97  62  92  59  85  56 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Moses Lake    106  68 102  70  97  66 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee     105  74 101  72  98  72 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak          104  69  98  63  96  64 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Lewis and Southern
     Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Wenatchee Area.

     Red Flag Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone
     677)-East Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone
     676).

     Red Flag Warning from Noon to 10 PM PDT Saturday for East
     Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 031734
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1034 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured into the Independence Day
weekend. Today will be the warmest day, with many valley sites
topping the century mark. Winds will increase as systems move
across the upper level ridge. Today and Saturday winds will be
increasing as a front tries to sag in from Canada, eventually
forcing winds more from the north. It is still looking dry and
warm into the beginning of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

...HOT..DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH INDEPENDENCE
DAY...

Today through Saturday...The ridge of high pressure will start to
be suppressed by an upper trough that will descend out of British
Columbia for the holiday weekend. Expect one more day of
widespread triple digit temperatures today. We may see some thin
high clouds over the northern zones but no precipitation for the
weekend. The main weather concern will be breezy to windy
conditions that will combine with very dry conditions to elevate
fire weather concerns. The first area of concern is the Cascade
gap valleys where northwest winds will be funneled down the
valleys. The Fire Weather Watch for fire wx zone WAZ677, which
includes the Wenatchee Valley, has been upgraded to a Red Flag
Warning. High resolution models show the winds will be right at or
just below warning criteria during this afternoon when relative
humidity will be at its lowest. We are acting on the side of
caution since fuels are much drier that usual for this time of
year and despite the widespread banning of pyrotechnics, humans
love their fireworks. The Red Flag Warning remains in effect for
WAZ676, including the Kittitas and Yakima Valleys.

The next concern will shift to the Okanogan Valley, Waterville
Plateau and western Columbia Basin on Saturday. Winds will shift
to northerly in response to an cold front approaching from the
north. The surface pressure gradient will tighten Saturday with
sustained winds increasing to 15 to 25 mph by early Saturday
morning. Winds will continue to increase through the day with
gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible. Models have been backing off a bit
on the strength of the wind speeds but even the lower range will
easily reach critical fire weather criteria when combined with
very low RH during the afternoon and evening hours. Any fire
starts on Friday will be problematic in these windy conditions for
Saturday. The elevated winds will keep overnight temperatures in
the upper 60s to low 70s for the exposed areas while the more
sheltered areas will cool off a bit more. Daytime temperatures for
Independence day will be mainly in the 90s, a little more
comfortable but still well above normal. /Kelch

Saturday night through Friday...In the big picture an interesting
pattern is setting up through this portion of the forecast
period. A rex block (high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska and low
pressure off the CA coast) will keep the region in a northwest to
northerly flow through the middle of the week. A pair of
disturbances will drop through the northeast zones and result in
slightly cooler temperatures...breezy/gusty winds and a chance for
showers and embedded thunderstorms at times.

Saturday night and Sunday the first wave will drop down out of
B.C. Winds will increase through the day on Saturday and will
continue down the Okanogan valley and the Kettle river
valley...with the north winds gradually getting into the Purcell
trench Saturday night and Sunday. The atmosphere will remain very
dry with poor overnight recoveries. A Red Flag warning is in place
through Saturday evening and that looks like a very good call
still. The models are hinting at some moisture associated with
this front just clipping the north Idaho Panhandle. Typically
fronts that originate in the northern Canadian plains are pretty
dry and the decision was made to keep conditions dry. Temperatures
will drop 3-5 degrees on Sunday but will still remain well above
seasonal averages.

Weak high pressure Sunday into Monday will give way to another
wave Monday night and Tuesday taking a track very close to the
one on Saturday. Model guidance has been very similar the past
several runs showing a decent surge of mid level moisture with the
front. As such pops were bumped up a bit for the northeast
Washington mountains and the Idaho Panhandle. Instability
parameters are such that embedded thunderstorms will be possible
late in the day and early evening. The models diverge Tuesday
night and Wednesday, with one model hanging onto the shortwave and
others keeping the flow progressive. Pops were kept along the
ID/MT border into Wednesday but confidence is low that anything
other than some fair weather cumulus will develop. Temperatures
will remain in the 80s and 90s.

Thursday and Friday...Model consistency really begins to fail
Thursday and Friday. The consensus will be for weak high pressure
to build back into the region both days for a slight warm up and
very dry conditions. Stay tuned. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Dry airmass will allow for VFR conditions at all TAF
sites. Winds will increase in the late afternoon across the EAT.
Elevated smoke layers from area wildfires will appear as thin mid
level clouds but surface visibility will not be affected. /J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane       100  68  96  65  89  64 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  97  63  94  61  86  59 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        97  58  93  57  91  55 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston      104  70 101  69  98  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville      102  64  98  60  93  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      96  55  93  54  85  51 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        97  62  92  59  85  56 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Moses Lake    106  68 102  70  97  66 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee     105  74 101  72  98  72 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak          104  69  98  63  96  64 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Lewis and Southern
     Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Wenatchee Area.

     Red Flag Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone
     677)-East Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone
     676).

     Red Flag Warning from Noon to 10 PM PDT Saturday for East
     Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 031734
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1034 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured into the Independence Day
weekend. Today will be the warmest day, with many valley sites
topping the century mark. Winds will increase as systems move
across the upper level ridge. Today and Saturday winds will be
increasing as a front tries to sag in from Canada, eventually
forcing winds more from the north. It is still looking dry and
warm into the beginning of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

...HOT..DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH INDEPENDENCE
DAY...

Today through Saturday...The ridge of high pressure will start to
be suppressed by an upper trough that will descend out of British
Columbia for the holiday weekend. Expect one more day of
widespread triple digit temperatures today. We may see some thin
high clouds over the northern zones but no precipitation for the
weekend. The main weather concern will be breezy to windy
conditions that will combine with very dry conditions to elevate
fire weather concerns. The first area of concern is the Cascade
gap valleys where northwest winds will be funneled down the
valleys. The Fire Weather Watch for fire wx zone WAZ677, which
includes the Wenatchee Valley, has been upgraded to a Red Flag
Warning. High resolution models show the winds will be right at or
just below warning criteria during this afternoon when relative
humidity will be at its lowest. We are acting on the side of
caution since fuels are much drier that usual for this time of
year and despite the widespread banning of pyrotechnics, humans
love their fireworks. The Red Flag Warning remains in effect for
WAZ676, including the Kittitas and Yakima Valleys.

The next concern will shift to the Okanogan Valley, Waterville
Plateau and western Columbia Basin on Saturday. Winds will shift
to northerly in response to an cold front approaching from the
north. The surface pressure gradient will tighten Saturday with
sustained winds increasing to 15 to 25 mph by early Saturday
morning. Winds will continue to increase through the day with
gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible. Models have been backing off a bit
on the strength of the wind speeds but even the lower range will
easily reach critical fire weather criteria when combined with
very low RH during the afternoon and evening hours. Any fire
starts on Friday will be problematic in these windy conditions for
Saturday. The elevated winds will keep overnight temperatures in
the upper 60s to low 70s for the exposed areas while the more
sheltered areas will cool off a bit more. Daytime temperatures for
Independence day will be mainly in the 90s, a little more
comfortable but still well above normal. /Kelch

Saturday night through Friday...In the big picture an interesting
pattern is setting up through this portion of the forecast
period. A rex block (high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska and low
pressure off the CA coast) will keep the region in a northwest to
northerly flow through the middle of the week. A pair of
disturbances will drop through the northeast zones and result in
slightly cooler temperatures...breezy/gusty winds and a chance for
showers and embedded thunderstorms at times.

Saturday night and Sunday the first wave will drop down out of
B.C. Winds will increase through the day on Saturday and will
continue down the Okanogan valley and the Kettle river
valley...with the north winds gradually getting into the Purcell
trench Saturday night and Sunday. The atmosphere will remain very
dry with poor overnight recoveries. A Red Flag warning is in place
through Saturday evening and that looks like a very good call
still. The models are hinting at some moisture associated with
this front just clipping the north Idaho Panhandle. Typically
fronts that originate in the northern Canadian plains are pretty
dry and the decision was made to keep conditions dry. Temperatures
will drop 3-5 degrees on Sunday but will still remain well above
seasonal averages.

Weak high pressure Sunday into Monday will give way to another
wave Monday night and Tuesday taking a track very close to the
one on Saturday. Model guidance has been very similar the past
several runs showing a decent surge of mid level moisture with the
front. As such pops were bumped up a bit for the northeast
Washington mountains and the Idaho Panhandle. Instability
parameters are such that embedded thunderstorms will be possible
late in the day and early evening. The models diverge Tuesday
night and Wednesday, with one model hanging onto the shortwave and
others keeping the flow progressive. Pops were kept along the
ID/MT border into Wednesday but confidence is low that anything
other than some fair weather cumulus will develop. Temperatures
will remain in the 80s and 90s.

Thursday and Friday...Model consistency really begins to fail
Thursday and Friday. The consensus will be for weak high pressure
to build back into the region both days for a slight warm up and
very dry conditions. Stay tuned. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Dry airmass will allow for VFR conditions at all TAF
sites. Winds will increase in the late afternoon across the EAT.
Elevated smoke layers from area wildfires will appear as thin mid
level clouds but surface visibility will not be affected. /J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane       100  68  96  65  89  64 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  97  63  94  61  86  59 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        97  58  93  57  91  55 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston      104  70 101  69  98  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville      102  64  98  60  93  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      96  55  93  54  85  51 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        97  62  92  59  85  56 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Moses Lake    106  68 102  70  97  66 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee     105  74 101  72  98  72 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak          104  69  98  63  96  64 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Lewis and Southern
     Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Wenatchee Area.

     Red Flag Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone
     677)-East Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone
     676).

     Red Flag Warning from Noon to 10 PM PDT Saturday for East
     Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 031734
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1034 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured into the Independence Day
weekend. Today will be the warmest day, with many valley sites
topping the century mark. Winds will increase as systems move
across the upper level ridge. Today and Saturday winds will be
increasing as a front tries to sag in from Canada, eventually
forcing winds more from the north. It is still looking dry and
warm into the beginning of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

...HOT..DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH INDEPENDENCE
DAY...

Today through Saturday...The ridge of high pressure will start to
be suppressed by an upper trough that will descend out of British
Columbia for the holiday weekend. Expect one more day of
widespread triple digit temperatures today. We may see some thin
high clouds over the northern zones but no precipitation for the
weekend. The main weather concern will be breezy to windy
conditions that will combine with very dry conditions to elevate
fire weather concerns. The first area of concern is the Cascade
gap valleys where northwest winds will be funneled down the
valleys. The Fire Weather Watch for fire wx zone WAZ677, which
includes the Wenatchee Valley, has been upgraded to a Red Flag
Warning. High resolution models show the winds will be right at or
just below warning criteria during this afternoon when relative
humidity will be at its lowest. We are acting on the side of
caution since fuels are much drier that usual for this time of
year and despite the widespread banning of pyrotechnics, humans
love their fireworks. The Red Flag Warning remains in effect for
WAZ676, including the Kittitas and Yakima Valleys.

The next concern will shift to the Okanogan Valley, Waterville
Plateau and western Columbia Basin on Saturday. Winds will shift
to northerly in response to an cold front approaching from the
north. The surface pressure gradient will tighten Saturday with
sustained winds increasing to 15 to 25 mph by early Saturday
morning. Winds will continue to increase through the day with
gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible. Models have been backing off a bit
on the strength of the wind speeds but even the lower range will
easily reach critical fire weather criteria when combined with
very low RH during the afternoon and evening hours. Any fire
starts on Friday will be problematic in these windy conditions for
Saturday. The elevated winds will keep overnight temperatures in
the upper 60s to low 70s for the exposed areas while the more
sheltered areas will cool off a bit more. Daytime temperatures for
Independence day will be mainly in the 90s, a little more
comfortable but still well above normal. /Kelch

Saturday night through Friday...In the big picture an interesting
pattern is setting up through this portion of the forecast
period. A rex block (high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska and low
pressure off the CA coast) will keep the region in a northwest to
northerly flow through the middle of the week. A pair of
disturbances will drop through the northeast zones and result in
slightly cooler temperatures...breezy/gusty winds and a chance for
showers and embedded thunderstorms at times.

Saturday night and Sunday the first wave will drop down out of
B.C. Winds will increase through the day on Saturday and will
continue down the Okanogan valley and the Kettle river
valley...with the north winds gradually getting into the Purcell
trench Saturday night and Sunday. The atmosphere will remain very
dry with poor overnight recoveries. A Red Flag warning is in place
through Saturday evening and that looks like a very good call
still. The models are hinting at some moisture associated with
this front just clipping the north Idaho Panhandle. Typically
fronts that originate in the northern Canadian plains are pretty
dry and the decision was made to keep conditions dry. Temperatures
will drop 3-5 degrees on Sunday but will still remain well above
seasonal averages.

Weak high pressure Sunday into Monday will give way to another
wave Monday night and Tuesday taking a track very close to the
one on Saturday. Model guidance has been very similar the past
several runs showing a decent surge of mid level moisture with the
front. As such pops were bumped up a bit for the northeast
Washington mountains and the Idaho Panhandle. Instability
parameters are such that embedded thunderstorms will be possible
late in the day and early evening. The models diverge Tuesday
night and Wednesday, with one model hanging onto the shortwave and
others keeping the flow progressive. Pops were kept along the
ID/MT border into Wednesday but confidence is low that anything
other than some fair weather cumulus will develop. Temperatures
will remain in the 80s and 90s.

Thursday and Friday...Model consistency really begins to fail
Thursday and Friday. The consensus will be for weak high pressure
to build back into the region both days for a slight warm up and
very dry conditions. Stay tuned. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Dry airmass will allow for VFR conditions at all TAF
sites. Winds will increase in the late afternoon across the EAT.
Elevated smoke layers from area wildfires will appear as thin mid
level clouds but surface visibility will not be affected. /J. Cote`



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane       100  68  96  65  89  64 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  97  63  94  61  86  59 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        97  58  93  57  91  55 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston      104  70 101  69  98  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville      102  64  98  60  93  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      96  55  93  54  85  51 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        97  62  92  59  85  56 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Moses Lake    106  68 102  70  97  66 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee     105  74 101  72  98  72 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak          104  69  98  63  96  64 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Lewis and Southern
     Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Wenatchee Area.

     Red Flag Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone
     677)-East Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone
     676).

     Red Flag Warning from Noon to 10 PM PDT Saturday for East
     Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KSEW 031558 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR CONTINUED SUNNY
AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT
IN A FEW DEGREES COOLING TODAY BUT HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AND A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM SEATTLE SOUTH.
THERE ARE MORNING LOW CLOUDS OVER MAINLY GRAYS HARBOR COUNTY AND
NEARLY INLAND TO SHELTON THAT WILL BURN OFF BY MIDDAY. ELSEWHERE IT
IS SUNNY. SATURDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY. UPPER HEIGHTS
WILL FALL SLIGHTLY WHILE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY. CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE ABOUT THE
SAME. LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH A THERMAL
TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. THIS SHOULD GIVE THE AREA A VERY WARM DAY...
HEAT ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY NEED TO EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY AND
THEN EVENTUALLY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT
COOLING WILL BE GRADUAL AND HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. LATEST MODELS ACTUALLY SHOW TEMPERATURES BUMPING
UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY BEFORE COOLING A LITTLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER NORTHERN B.C. THE FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WA IS
W/NW. THE AIR MASS IS DRY. LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE
CENTRAL COAST AND CHEHALIS GAP THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ERODE THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...SKIES ARE CLEAR FOR VFR CONDITIONS. A WEAK
ONSHORE PUSH WILL BRING STRATUS CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT.
33

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT N WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 33

&&

.MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE NE PAC WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER PRES INLAND. THE RESULT IS LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN
WA. MODELS SHOW N/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS - A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AS
WELL.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AS A THERMAL TROUGH OF LOW
PRES FORMS ALONG THE COAST. THE FLOW WILL FLIP BACK TO ONSHORE ON
MONDAY AS LOW PRES SHIFTS INLAND. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SEATTLE...BELLEVUE...TACOMA...AND EAST PUGET
     SOUND LOWLANDS ZONES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS...CENTRAL AND EAST
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE




000
FXUS66 KSEW 031558 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR CONTINUED SUNNY
AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT
IN A FEW DEGREES COOLING TODAY BUT HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AND A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM SEATTLE SOUTH.
THERE ARE MORNING LOW CLOUDS OVER MAINLY GRAYS HARBOR COUNTY AND
NEARLY INLAND TO SHELTON THAT WILL BURN OFF BY MIDDAY. ELSEWHERE IT
IS SUNNY. SATURDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY. UPPER HEIGHTS
WILL FALL SLIGHTLY WHILE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY. CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE ABOUT THE
SAME. LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH A THERMAL
TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. THIS SHOULD GIVE THE AREA A VERY WARM DAY...
HEAT ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY NEED TO EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY AND
THEN EVENTUALLY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT
COOLING WILL BE GRADUAL AND HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. LATEST MODELS ACTUALLY SHOW TEMPERATURES BUMPING
UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY BEFORE COOLING A LITTLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER NORTHERN B.C. THE FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WA IS
W/NW. THE AIR MASS IS DRY. LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE
CENTRAL COAST AND CHEHALIS GAP THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ERODE THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...SKIES ARE CLEAR FOR VFR CONDITIONS. A WEAK
ONSHORE PUSH WILL BRING STRATUS CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT.
33

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT N WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 33

&&

.MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE NE PAC WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER PRES INLAND. THE RESULT IS LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN
WA. MODELS SHOW N/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS - A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AS
WELL.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AS A THERMAL TROUGH OF LOW
PRES FORMS ALONG THE COAST. THE FLOW WILL FLIP BACK TO ONSHORE ON
MONDAY AS LOW PRES SHIFTS INLAND. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SEATTLE...BELLEVUE...TACOMA...AND EAST PUGET
     SOUND LOWLANDS ZONES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS...CENTRAL AND EAST
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE




000
FXUS66 KSEW 031558 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR CONTINUED SUNNY
AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT
IN A FEW DEGREES COOLING TODAY BUT HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AND A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM SEATTLE SOUTH.
THERE ARE MORNING LOW CLOUDS OVER MAINLY GRAYS HARBOR COUNTY AND
NEARLY INLAND TO SHELTON THAT WILL BURN OFF BY MIDDAY. ELSEWHERE IT
IS SUNNY. SATURDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY. UPPER HEIGHTS
WILL FALL SLIGHTLY WHILE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY. CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE ABOUT THE
SAME. LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH A THERMAL
TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. THIS SHOULD GIVE THE AREA A VERY WARM DAY...
HEAT ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY NEED TO EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY AND
THEN EVENTUALLY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT
COOLING WILL BE GRADUAL AND HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. LATEST MODELS ACTUALLY SHOW TEMPERATURES BUMPING
UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY BEFORE COOLING A LITTLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER NORTHERN B.C. THE FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WA IS
W/NW. THE AIR MASS IS DRY. LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE
CENTRAL COAST AND CHEHALIS GAP THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ERODE THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...SKIES ARE CLEAR FOR VFR CONDITIONS. A WEAK
ONSHORE PUSH WILL BRING STRATUS CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT.
33

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT N WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 33

&&

.MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE NE PAC WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER PRES INLAND. THE RESULT IS LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN
WA. MODELS SHOW N/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS - A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AS
WELL.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AS A THERMAL TROUGH OF LOW
PRES FORMS ALONG THE COAST. THE FLOW WILL FLIP BACK TO ONSHORE ON
MONDAY AS LOW PRES SHIFTS INLAND. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SEATTLE...BELLEVUE...TACOMA...AND EAST PUGET
     SOUND LOWLANDS ZONES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS...CENTRAL AND EAST
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE




000
FXUS66 KSEW 031558 CCA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR CONTINUED SUNNY
AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT
IN A FEW DEGREES COOLING TODAY BUT HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AND A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM SEATTLE SOUTH.
THERE ARE MORNING LOW CLOUDS OVER MAINLY GRAYS HARBOR COUNTY AND
NEARLY INLAND TO SHELTON THAT WILL BURN OFF BY MIDDAY. ELSEWHERE IT
IS SUNNY. SATURDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY. UPPER HEIGHTS
WILL FALL SLIGHTLY WHILE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY. CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE ABOUT THE
SAME. LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH A THERMAL
TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. THIS SHOULD GIVE THE AREA A VERY WARM DAY...
HEAT ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY NEED TO EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY AND
THEN EVENTUALLY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT
COOLING WILL BE GRADUAL AND HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. LATEST MODELS ACTUALLY SHOW TEMPERATURES BUMPING
UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY BEFORE COOLING A LITTLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER NORTHERN B.C. THE FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WA IS
W/NW. THE AIR MASS IS DRY. LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE
CENTRAL COAST AND CHEHALIS GAP THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ERODE THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...SKIES ARE CLEAR FOR VFR CONDITIONS. A WEAK
ONSHORE PUSH WILL BRING STRATUS CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT.
33

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT N WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 33

&&

.MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE NE PAC WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER PRES INLAND. THE RESULT IS LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN
WA. MODELS SHOW N/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS - A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AS
WELL.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AS A THERMAL TROUGH OF LOW
PRES FORMS ALONG THE COAST. THE FLOW WILL FLIP BACK TO ONSHORE ON
MONDAY AS LOW PRES SHIFTS INLAND. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SEATTLE...BELLEVUE...TACOMA...AND EAST PUGET
     SOUND LOWLANDS ZONES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS...CENTRAL AND EAST
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE




000
FXUS66 KSEW 031553
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
855 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR CONTINUED SUNNY
AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT
IN A FEW DEGREES COOLING TODAY BUT HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AND A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM SEATTLE SOUTH.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AT THE COAST AND PARITALLY INLAND TO
ABOUT SHELTON THIS MORNING WITH THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL FALL
SLIGHTLY WHILE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. CLOUDS
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE ABOUT THE SAME.

LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH A THERMAL TROUGH
ALONG THE COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A VERY WARM DAY...EVEN
FOR THE COAST. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY NEED TO EXTENDED
THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN EVENTUALLY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT
COOLING WILL BE GRADUAL AND HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. LATEST MODELS ACTUALLY SHOW TEMPERATURES BUMPING
UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY BEFORE COOLING A LITTLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER NORTHERN B.C. THE FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WA IS
W/NW. THE AIR MASS IS DRY. LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE
CENTRAL COAST AND CHEHALIS GAP THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ERODE THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...SKIES ARE CLEAR FOR VFR CONDITIONS. A WEAK
ONSHORE PUSH WILL BRING STRATUS CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT.
33

KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT N WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 33

&&

.MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE NE PAC WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER PRES INLAND. THE RESULT IS LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN
WA. MODELS SHOW N/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS - A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AS
WELL.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AS A THERMAL TROUGH OF LOW
PRES FORMS ALONG THE COAST. THE FLOW WILL FLIP BACK TO ONSHORE ON
MONDAY AS LOW PRES SHIFTS INLAND. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SEATTLE...BELLEVUE...TACOMA...AND EAST PUGET
     SOUND LOWLANDS ZONES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS...CENTRAL AND EAST
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE




000
FXUS66 KPQR 031530
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
830 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
RESULTING IN PERSISTENT INLAND HEAT. THE RIDGE IS KEEPING THE MARINE
LAYER SHALLOW...WITH ITS COOLING INFLUENCE GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE
COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL VALLEYS. INLAND VALLEYS REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...
POSSIBLY LONGER. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST MAY SPIN SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH TOWARD THE
OR/CA BORDER. SOME COOLING IS POSSIBLE LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE LOOSENS ITS GRIP...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR
LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...NOT A WHOLE LOT HAS CHANGED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...SO
TODAY NOT LIKELY TO DIFFER MUCH FROM THU. ONSHORE FLOW WAS A BIT
STRONGER THIS MORNING WHICH ALLOWED MARINE CLOUDS TO PUSH A LITTLE
FURTHER UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA PAST KLS. A COMBINATION OF A BIT
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND A LITTLE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE ALOFT MAY
TAKE A COUPLE DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPS TODAY.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...THROUGH SUNDAY...HOT
WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ALL BUT THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON AS A STRONG AND SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM TEXAS THROUGH OREGON AND INTO NE PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE WILL
LIKELY KEEP THE MARINE LAYER TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY APPRECIABLE COOLING
IN THE INLAND VALLEYS...AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND PROBABLY LONGER.

MODEL 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE +20 TO +22 DEG C RANGE...YIELDING
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS GIVEN FULL DAYTIME
SUNSHINE THROUGH SUNDAY. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN ONSHORE...
KEEPING THE COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL VALLEYS MUCH COOLER WITH AREAS
OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS CLEARING EACH AFTERNOON FRI/SAT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA SAT/SAT NIGHT WILL LIKELY
BE TOO FAR NORTH AND EAST TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE MARINE
LAYER. IN FACT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO INTERIOR BC MAY SHOVE
PART OF THE THERMAL LOW OFFSHORE...WEAKENING ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND CAUSING SUNDAY TO BE NEARLY AS HOT AS YESTERDAY.
PUSHING THE THERMAL LOW OFFSHORE MAY INVITE A SOUTHERLY WIND
REVERSAL/SURGE TO PUSH UP THE COAST...BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS
DOUBTFUL THE RESULTING SURGE OF MARINE AIR WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON INLAND TEMPS. IF IT DOES...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
A COOLDOWN MONDAY WOULD BE NEAR EUGENE. THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR MOST INLAND AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY...WILL HOLD ON TO THAT
THOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE NIGHT HOURS AS RELIEF WILL
BE SLOW TO COME INLAND.

WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH AN UPPER LOW FORMING OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM MAY TRIGGER AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER AS FAR
NORTH AS THE SOUTH OREGON CASCADES THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOME DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS CLIPPING LANE COUNTY. UNLESS THE UPPER LOW WOBBLES A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN PRESENTLY EXPECTED...INSTABILITY WILL BE
LACKING FOR THUNDER IN OUR CASCADES THIS WEEKEND. KEPT MENTION OF
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH
AMPLITUDE 500 MB REX BLOCK OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND OR/WA IN WEAK
TROUGH OR COL SEPARATING SWRN U.S. RIDGE AND ERN PACIFIC/GULF OF AK
RIDGE. DESPITE THE WEAK TROUGHINESS...AMS REMAINS WARM WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE HEIGHTS AND NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. LITTLE CHANGE OCCURS IN
OVERALL PATTERN INTO TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...BLOCK BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN WITH RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND PACIFIC CUTOFF MAKING SLOW EWD
PROGRESS TOWARD CNTRL CA CSTLN. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND GEFS MEMBERS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH DIFFERENCES THEREAFTER
MAINLY IN AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING OVER OR/WA/WRN CANADA AND POSITION OF
ERN PACIFIC CUTOFF. DESPITE THE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY MID
WEEK...WARM TEMPERATURES NEARLY CERTAIN /10-12 DEG ABOVE NORMAL/ BUT
INFLUENCE OF ERN PACIFIC CUTOFF PROVIDES A CHANCE OF INLAND/MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY-THURSDAY. BRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...STABLE WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
VFR TO REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE INLAND TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS. IFR MARINE STRATUS FORMED AT THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND PUSHED
UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER AS FAR AS KELSO. THE COASTAL STRATUS APPEARS
TO BE A BIT THICKER THAN YESTERDAY...SO EXPECT A SLOWER
BURNOFF...LIKELY BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS...BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STRATUS SHOULD RETURN TO THE COAST
THIS EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC AND THERMAL LOW PRES INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE BEST WINDS ARE FURTHER
OFFSHORE...WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. WINDS
ARE LIGHTER NEAR SHORE...BUT EXPECT THEM TO PICK UP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT LIKELY. THE THERMAL
LOW PRES WILL MOVE WESTWARD THIS WEEKEND...WEAKENING THE PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS ACROSS ALL
WATERS TO DROP BELOW 20 KT LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE FCST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL
OCCUR LATE SUN.

EXPECT PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT AND A
DOMINATE PERIOD AROUND 8 SECONDS. STRONG WINDS OFF OF VANCOUVER
ISLAND WILL PRODUCE A BUILDING NW SWELL THIS WEEKEND THAT COULD
PUSH SEAS TO NEAR 10 FT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK TO
AROUND 4 TO 5 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 031530
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
830 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
RESULTING IN PERSISTENT INLAND HEAT. THE RIDGE IS KEEPING THE MARINE
LAYER SHALLOW...WITH ITS COOLING INFLUENCE GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE
COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL VALLEYS. INLAND VALLEYS REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...
POSSIBLY LONGER. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST MAY SPIN SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH TOWARD THE
OR/CA BORDER. SOME COOLING IS POSSIBLE LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE LOOSENS ITS GRIP...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR
LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...NOT A WHOLE LOT HAS CHANGED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...SO
TODAY NOT LIKELY TO DIFFER MUCH FROM THU. ONSHORE FLOW WAS A BIT
STRONGER THIS MORNING WHICH ALLOWED MARINE CLOUDS TO PUSH A LITTLE
FURTHER UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA PAST KLS. A COMBINATION OF A BIT
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND A LITTLE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE ALOFT MAY
TAKE A COUPLE DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPS TODAY.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...THROUGH SUNDAY...HOT
WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ALL BUT THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON AS A STRONG AND SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM TEXAS THROUGH OREGON AND INTO NE PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE WILL
LIKELY KEEP THE MARINE LAYER TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY APPRECIABLE COOLING
IN THE INLAND VALLEYS...AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND PROBABLY LONGER.

MODEL 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE +20 TO +22 DEG C RANGE...YIELDING
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS GIVEN FULL DAYTIME
SUNSHINE THROUGH SUNDAY. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN ONSHORE...
KEEPING THE COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL VALLEYS MUCH COOLER WITH AREAS
OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS CLEARING EACH AFTERNOON FRI/SAT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA SAT/SAT NIGHT WILL LIKELY
BE TOO FAR NORTH AND EAST TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE MARINE
LAYER. IN FACT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO INTERIOR BC MAY SHOVE
PART OF THE THERMAL LOW OFFSHORE...WEAKENING ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND CAUSING SUNDAY TO BE NEARLY AS HOT AS YESTERDAY.
PUSHING THE THERMAL LOW OFFSHORE MAY INVITE A SOUTHERLY WIND
REVERSAL/SURGE TO PUSH UP THE COAST...BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS
DOUBTFUL THE RESULTING SURGE OF MARINE AIR WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON INLAND TEMPS. IF IT DOES...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
A COOLDOWN MONDAY WOULD BE NEAR EUGENE. THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR MOST INLAND AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY...WILL HOLD ON TO THAT
THOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE NIGHT HOURS AS RELIEF WILL
BE SLOW TO COME INLAND.

WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH AN UPPER LOW FORMING OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM MAY TRIGGER AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER AS FAR
NORTH AS THE SOUTH OREGON CASCADES THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOME DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS CLIPPING LANE COUNTY. UNLESS THE UPPER LOW WOBBLES A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN PRESENTLY EXPECTED...INSTABILITY WILL BE
LACKING FOR THUNDER IN OUR CASCADES THIS WEEKEND. KEPT MENTION OF
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH
AMPLITUDE 500 MB REX BLOCK OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND OR/WA IN WEAK
TROUGH OR COL SEPARATING SWRN U.S. RIDGE AND ERN PACIFIC/GULF OF AK
RIDGE. DESPITE THE WEAK TROUGHINESS...AMS REMAINS WARM WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE HEIGHTS AND NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. LITTLE CHANGE OCCURS IN
OVERALL PATTERN INTO TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...BLOCK BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN WITH RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND PACIFIC CUTOFF MAKING SLOW EWD
PROGRESS TOWARD CNTRL CA CSTLN. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND GEFS MEMBERS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH DIFFERENCES THEREAFTER
MAINLY IN AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING OVER OR/WA/WRN CANADA AND POSITION OF
ERN PACIFIC CUTOFF. DESPITE THE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY MID
WEEK...WARM TEMPERATURES NEARLY CERTAIN /10-12 DEG ABOVE NORMAL/ BUT
INFLUENCE OF ERN PACIFIC CUTOFF PROVIDES A CHANCE OF INLAND/MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY-THURSDAY. BRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...STABLE WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
VFR TO REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE INLAND TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS. IFR MARINE STRATUS FORMED AT THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND PUSHED
UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER AS FAR AS KELSO. THE COASTAL STRATUS APPEARS
TO BE A BIT THICKER THAN YESTERDAY...SO EXPECT A SLOWER
BURNOFF...LIKELY BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS...BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STRATUS SHOULD RETURN TO THE COAST
THIS EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC AND THERMAL LOW PRES INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE BEST WINDS ARE FURTHER
OFFSHORE...WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. WINDS
ARE LIGHTER NEAR SHORE...BUT EXPECT THEM TO PICK UP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT LIKELY. THE THERMAL
LOW PRES WILL MOVE WESTWARD THIS WEEKEND...WEAKENING THE PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS ACROSS ALL
WATERS TO DROP BELOW 20 KT LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE FCST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL
OCCUR LATE SUN.

EXPECT PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT AND A
DOMINATE PERIOD AROUND 8 SECONDS. STRONG WINDS OFF OF VANCOUVER
ISLAND WILL PRODUCE A BUILDING NW SWELL THIS WEEKEND THAT COULD
PUSH SEAS TO NEAR 10 FT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK TO
AROUND 4 TO 5 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 031530
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
830 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
RESULTING IN PERSISTENT INLAND HEAT. THE RIDGE IS KEEPING THE MARINE
LAYER SHALLOW...WITH ITS COOLING INFLUENCE GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE
COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL VALLEYS. INLAND VALLEYS REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...
POSSIBLY LONGER. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST MAY SPIN SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH TOWARD THE
OR/CA BORDER. SOME COOLING IS POSSIBLE LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE LOOSENS ITS GRIP...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR
LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...NOT A WHOLE LOT HAS CHANGED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...SO
TODAY NOT LIKELY TO DIFFER MUCH FROM THU. ONSHORE FLOW WAS A BIT
STRONGER THIS MORNING WHICH ALLOWED MARINE CLOUDS TO PUSH A LITTLE
FURTHER UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA PAST KLS. A COMBINATION OF A BIT
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND A LITTLE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE ALOFT MAY
TAKE A COUPLE DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPS TODAY.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...THROUGH SUNDAY...HOT
WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ALL BUT THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON AS A STRONG AND SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM TEXAS THROUGH OREGON AND INTO NE PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE WILL
LIKELY KEEP THE MARINE LAYER TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY APPRECIABLE COOLING
IN THE INLAND VALLEYS...AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND PROBABLY LONGER.

MODEL 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE +20 TO +22 DEG C RANGE...YIELDING
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS GIVEN FULL DAYTIME
SUNSHINE THROUGH SUNDAY. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN ONSHORE...
KEEPING THE COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL VALLEYS MUCH COOLER WITH AREAS
OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS CLEARING EACH AFTERNOON FRI/SAT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA SAT/SAT NIGHT WILL LIKELY
BE TOO FAR NORTH AND EAST TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE MARINE
LAYER. IN FACT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO INTERIOR BC MAY SHOVE
PART OF THE THERMAL LOW OFFSHORE...WEAKENING ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND CAUSING SUNDAY TO BE NEARLY AS HOT AS YESTERDAY.
PUSHING THE THERMAL LOW OFFSHORE MAY INVITE A SOUTHERLY WIND
REVERSAL/SURGE TO PUSH UP THE COAST...BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS
DOUBTFUL THE RESULTING SURGE OF MARINE AIR WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON INLAND TEMPS. IF IT DOES...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
A COOLDOWN MONDAY WOULD BE NEAR EUGENE. THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR MOST INLAND AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY...WILL HOLD ON TO THAT
THOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE NIGHT HOURS AS RELIEF WILL
BE SLOW TO COME INLAND.

WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH AN UPPER LOW FORMING OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM MAY TRIGGER AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER AS FAR
NORTH AS THE SOUTH OREGON CASCADES THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOME DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS CLIPPING LANE COUNTY. UNLESS THE UPPER LOW WOBBLES A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN PRESENTLY EXPECTED...INSTABILITY WILL BE
LACKING FOR THUNDER IN OUR CASCADES THIS WEEKEND. KEPT MENTION OF
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH
AMPLITUDE 500 MB REX BLOCK OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND OR/WA IN WEAK
TROUGH OR COL SEPARATING SWRN U.S. RIDGE AND ERN PACIFIC/GULF OF AK
RIDGE. DESPITE THE WEAK TROUGHINESS...AMS REMAINS WARM WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE HEIGHTS AND NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. LITTLE CHANGE OCCURS IN
OVERALL PATTERN INTO TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...BLOCK BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN WITH RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND PACIFIC CUTOFF MAKING SLOW EWD
PROGRESS TOWARD CNTRL CA CSTLN. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND GEFS MEMBERS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH DIFFERENCES THEREAFTER
MAINLY IN AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING OVER OR/WA/WRN CANADA AND POSITION OF
ERN PACIFIC CUTOFF. DESPITE THE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY MID
WEEK...WARM TEMPERATURES NEARLY CERTAIN /10-12 DEG ABOVE NORMAL/ BUT
INFLUENCE OF ERN PACIFIC CUTOFF PROVIDES A CHANCE OF INLAND/MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY-THURSDAY. BRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...STABLE WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
VFR TO REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE INLAND TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS. IFR MARINE STRATUS FORMED AT THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND PUSHED
UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER AS FAR AS KELSO. THE COASTAL STRATUS APPEARS
TO BE A BIT THICKER THAN YESTERDAY...SO EXPECT A SLOWER
BURNOFF...LIKELY BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS...BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STRATUS SHOULD RETURN TO THE COAST
THIS EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC AND THERMAL LOW PRES INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE BEST WINDS ARE FURTHER
OFFSHORE...WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. WINDS
ARE LIGHTER NEAR SHORE...BUT EXPECT THEM TO PICK UP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT LIKELY. THE THERMAL
LOW PRES WILL MOVE WESTWARD THIS WEEKEND...WEAKENING THE PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS ACROSS ALL
WATERS TO DROP BELOW 20 KT LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE FCST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL
OCCUR LATE SUN.

EXPECT PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT AND A
DOMINATE PERIOD AROUND 8 SECONDS. STRONG WINDS OFF OF VANCOUVER
ISLAND WILL PRODUCE A BUILDING NW SWELL THIS WEEKEND THAT COULD
PUSH SEAS TO NEAR 10 FT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK TO
AROUND 4 TO 5 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
     LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
     WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 031132
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
432 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured into the Independence Day
weekend. Today will be the warmest day with many valley sites
topping the century mark. Breezes will be kicking up as weather
systems move across the strong upper level ridge. Today and
Saturday winds will be increasing as a cool front tries to sag in
from Canada eventually forcing winds more from the north. It is
still looking dry and warm even into the beginning of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

...HOT..DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH INDEPENDENCE
DAY...

Today through Saturday...The ridge of high pressure will start to
be suppressed by an upper trough that will descend out of British
Columbia for the holiday weekend. Expect one more day of
widespread triple digit temperatures today. We may see some thin
high clouds over the northern zones but no precipitation for the
weekend. The main weather concern will be breezy to windy
conditions that will combine with very dry conditions to elevate
fire weather concerns. The first area of concern is the Cascade
gap valleys where northwest winds will be funneled down the
valleys. The Fire Weather Watch for fire wx zone WAZ677, which
includes the Wenatchee Valley, has been upgraded to a Red Flag
Warning. High resolution models show the winds will be right at or
just below warning criteria during this afternoon when relative
humidity will be at its lowest. We are acting on the side of
caution since fuels are much drier that usual for this time of
year and despite the widespread banning of pyrotechnics, humans
love their fireworks. The Red Flag Warning remains in effect for
WAZ676, including the Kittitas and Yakima Valleys.

The next concern will shift to the Okanogan Valley, Waterville
Plateau and western Columbia Basin on Saturday. Winds will shift
to northerly in response to an cold front approaching from the
north. The surface pressure gradient will tighten Saturday with
sustained winds increasing to 15 to 25 mph by early Saturday
morning. Winds will continue to increase through the day with
gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible. Models have been backing off a bit
on the strength of the wind speeds but even the lower range will
easily reach critical fire weather criteria when combined with
very low RH during the afternoon and evening hours. Any fire
starts on Friday will be problematic in these windy conditions for
Saturday. The elevated winds will keep overnight temperatures in
the upper 60s to low 70s for the exposed areas while the more
sheltered areas will cool off a bit more. Daytime temperatures for
Independence day will be mainly in the 90s, a little more
comfortable but still well above normal. /Kelch

Saturday night through Friday...In the big picture an interesting
pattern is setting up through this portion of the forecast
period. A rex block (high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska and low
pressure off the CA coast) will keep the region in a northwest to
northerly flow through the middle of the week. A pair of
disturbances will drop through the northeast zones and result in
slightly cooler temperatures...breezy/gusty winds and a chance for
showers and embedded thunderstorms at times.

Saturday night and Sunday the first wave will drop down out of
B.C. Winds will increase through the day on Saturday and will
continue down the Okanogan valley and the Kettle river
valley...with the north winds gradually getting into the Purcell
trench Saturday night and Sunday. The atmosphere will remain very
dry with poor overnight recoveries. A Red Flag warning is in place
through Saturday evening and that looks like a very good call
still. The models are hinting at some moisture associated with
this front just clipping the north Idaho Panhandle. Typically
fronts that originate in the northern Canadian plains are pretty
dry and the decision was made to keep conditions dry. Temperatures
will drop 3-5 degrees on Sunday but will still remain well above
seasonal averages.

Weak high pressure Sunday into Monday will give way to another
wave Monday night and Tuesday taking a track very close to the
one on Saturday. Model guidance has been very similar the past
several runs showing a decent surge of mid level moisture with the
front. As such pops were bumped up a bit for the northeast
Washington mountains and the Idaho Panhandle. Instability
parameters are such that embedded thunderstorms will be possible
late in the day and early evening. The models diverge Tuesday
night and Wednesday, with one model hanging onto the shortwave and
others keeping the flow progressive. Pops were kept along the
ID/MT border into Wednesday but confidence is low that anything
other than some fair weather cumulus will develop. Temperatures
will remain in the 80s and 90s.

Thursday and Friday...Model consistency really begins to fail
Thursday and Friday. The consensus will be for weak high pressure
to build back into the region both days for a slight warm up and
very dry conditions. Stay tuned. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A dry and stable airmass will remain over the aviation
area allowing for VFR conditions at all TAF sites through 12Z
Sat. NW winds will increase in the late afternoon across the KEAT
TAF site. Elevated smoke layers from area wildfires will appear as
thin mid level clouds but surface visibility will not be
affected. /EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane       100  68  96  65  89  64 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  97  63  94  61  86  59 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        97  58  93  57  91  55 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston      104  70 101  69  98  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville      102  64  98  60  93  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      96  55  93  54  85  51 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        97  62  92  59  85  56 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Moses Lake    106  68 102  70  97  66 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee     105  74 101  72  98  72 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak          104  69  98  63  96  64 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Lewis and Southern
     Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Wenatchee Area.

     Red Flag Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone
     677)-East Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone
     676).

     Red Flag Warning from Noon to 10 PM PDT Saturday for East
     Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 031132
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
432 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured into the Independence Day
weekend. Today will be the warmest day with many valley sites
topping the century mark. Breezes will be kicking up as weather
systems move across the strong upper level ridge. Today and
Saturday winds will be increasing as a cool front tries to sag in
from Canada eventually forcing winds more from the north. It is
still looking dry and warm even into the beginning of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

...HOT..DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH INDEPENDENCE
DAY...

Today through Saturday...The ridge of high pressure will start to
be suppressed by an upper trough that will descend out of British
Columbia for the holiday weekend. Expect one more day of
widespread triple digit temperatures today. We may see some thin
high clouds over the northern zones but no precipitation for the
weekend. The main weather concern will be breezy to windy
conditions that will combine with very dry conditions to elevate
fire weather concerns. The first area of concern is the Cascade
gap valleys where northwest winds will be funneled down the
valleys. The Fire Weather Watch for fire wx zone WAZ677, which
includes the Wenatchee Valley, has been upgraded to a Red Flag
Warning. High resolution models show the winds will be right at or
just below warning criteria during this afternoon when relative
humidity will be at its lowest. We are acting on the side of
caution since fuels are much drier that usual for this time of
year and despite the widespread banning of pyrotechnics, humans
love their fireworks. The Red Flag Warning remains in effect for
WAZ676, including the Kittitas and Yakima Valleys.

The next concern will shift to the Okanogan Valley, Waterville
Plateau and western Columbia Basin on Saturday. Winds will shift
to northerly in response to an cold front approaching from the
north. The surface pressure gradient will tighten Saturday with
sustained winds increasing to 15 to 25 mph by early Saturday
morning. Winds will continue to increase through the day with
gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible. Models have been backing off a bit
on the strength of the wind speeds but even the lower range will
easily reach critical fire weather criteria when combined with
very low RH during the afternoon and evening hours. Any fire
starts on Friday will be problematic in these windy conditions for
Saturday. The elevated winds will keep overnight temperatures in
the upper 60s to low 70s for the exposed areas while the more
sheltered areas will cool off a bit more. Daytime temperatures for
Independence day will be mainly in the 90s, a little more
comfortable but still well above normal. /Kelch

Saturday night through Friday...In the big picture an interesting
pattern is setting up through this portion of the forecast
period. A rex block (high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska and low
pressure off the CA coast) will keep the region in a northwest to
northerly flow through the middle of the week. A pair of
disturbances will drop through the northeast zones and result in
slightly cooler temperatures...breezy/gusty winds and a chance for
showers and embedded thunderstorms at times.

Saturday night and Sunday the first wave will drop down out of
B.C. Winds will increase through the day on Saturday and will
continue down the Okanogan valley and the Kettle river
valley...with the north winds gradually getting into the Purcell
trench Saturday night and Sunday. The atmosphere will remain very
dry with poor overnight recoveries. A Red Flag warning is in place
through Saturday evening and that looks like a very good call
still. The models are hinting at some moisture associated with
this front just clipping the north Idaho Panhandle. Typically
fronts that originate in the northern Canadian plains are pretty
dry and the decision was made to keep conditions dry. Temperatures
will drop 3-5 degrees on Sunday but will still remain well above
seasonal averages.

Weak high pressure Sunday into Monday will give way to another
wave Monday night and Tuesday taking a track very close to the
one on Saturday. Model guidance has been very similar the past
several runs showing a decent surge of mid level moisture with the
front. As such pops were bumped up a bit for the northeast
Washington mountains and the Idaho Panhandle. Instability
parameters are such that embedded thunderstorms will be possible
late in the day and early evening. The models diverge Tuesday
night and Wednesday, with one model hanging onto the shortwave and
others keeping the flow progressive. Pops were kept along the
ID/MT border into Wednesday but confidence is low that anything
other than some fair weather cumulus will develop. Temperatures
will remain in the 80s and 90s.

Thursday and Friday...Model consistency really begins to fail
Thursday and Friday. The consensus will be for weak high pressure
to build back into the region both days for a slight warm up and
very dry conditions. Stay tuned. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A dry and stable airmass will remain over the aviation
area allowing for VFR conditions at all TAF sites through 12Z
Sat. NW winds will increase in the late afternoon across the KEAT
TAF site. Elevated smoke layers from area wildfires will appear as
thin mid level clouds but surface visibility will not be
affected. /EK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane       100  68  96  65  89  64 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  97  63  94  61  86  59 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        97  58  93  57  91  55 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston      104  70 101  69  98  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville      102  64  98  60  93  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      96  55  93  54  85  51 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        97  62  92  59  85  56 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Moses Lake    106  68 102  70  97  66 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee     105  74 101  72  98  72 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak          104  69  98  63  96  64 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Lewis and Southern
     Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Wenatchee Area.

     Red Flag Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone
     677)-East Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone
     676).

     Red Flag Warning from Noon to 10 PM PDT Saturday for East
     Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 031027
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
326 AM PDT FRI JUL  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
RESULTING IN PERSISTENT INLAND HEAT. THE RIDGE IS KEEPING THE MARINE
LAYER SHALLOW...WITH ITS COOLING INFLUENCE GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE
COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL VALLEYS. INLAND VALLEYS REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...
POSSIBLY LONGER. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST MAY SPIN SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH TOWARD THE
OR/CA BORDER. SOME COOLING IS POSSIBLE LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE LOOSENS ITS GRIP...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR
LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HOT WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ALL
BUT THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON AS A
STRONG AND SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM TEXAS THROUGH
OREGON AND INTO NE PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE WILL LIKELY KEEP THE MARINE
LAYER TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY APPRECIABLE COOLING IN THE INLAND
VALLEYS...AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND PROBABLY LONGER.

MODEL 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE +20 TO +22 DEG C RANGE...YIELDING
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS GIVEN FULL DAYTIME
SUNSHINE THROUGH SUNDAY. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN ONSHORE...
KEEPING THE COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL VALLEYS MUCH COOLER WITH AREAS
OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS CLEARING EACH AFTERNOON FRI/SAT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA SAT/SAT NIGHT WILL LIKELY
BE TOO FAR NORTH AND EAST TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE MARINE
LAYER. IN FACT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO INTERIOR BC MAY SHOVE
PART OF THE THERMAL LOW OFFSHORE...WEAKENING ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND CAUSING SUNDAY TO BE NEARLY AS HOT AS YESTERDAY.
PUSHING THE THERMAL LOW OFFSHORE MAY INVITE A SOUTHERLY WIND
REVERSAL/SURGE TO PUSH UP THE COAST...BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS
DOUBTFUL THE RESULTING SURGE OF MARINE AIR WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON INLAND TEMPS. IF IT DOES...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
A COOLDOWN MONDAY WOULD BE NEAR EUGENE. THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR MOST INLAND AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY...WILL HOLD ON TO THAT
THOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE NIGHT HOURS AS RELIEF WILL
BE SLOW TO COME INLAND.

WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH AN UPPER LOW FORMING OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM MAY TRIGGER AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER AS FAR
NORTH AS THE SOUTH OREGON CASCADES THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOME DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS CLIPPING LANE COUNTY. UNLESS THE UPPER LOW WOBBLES A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN PRESENTLY EXPECTED...INSTABILITY WILL BE
LACKING FOR THUNDER IN OUR CASCADES THIS WEEKEND. KEPT MENTION OF
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH
AMPLITUDE 500 MB REX BLOCK OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND OR/WA IN WEAK
TROUGH OR COL SEPARATING SWRN U.S. RIDGE AND ERN PACIFIC/GULF OF AK
RIDGE. DESPITE THE WEAK TROUGHINESS...AMS REMAINS WARM WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE HEIGHTS AND NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. LITTLE CHANGE OCCURS IN
OVERALL PATTERN INTO TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...BLOCK BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN WITH RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND PACIFIC CUTOFF MAKING SLOW EWD
PROGRESS TOWARD CNTRL CA CSTLN. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND GEFS MEMBERS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH DIFFERENCES THEREAFTER
MAINLY IN AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING OVER OR/WA/WRN CANADA AND POSITION OF
ERN PACIFIC CUTOFF. DESPITE THE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY MID
WEEK...WARM TEMPERATURES NEARLY CERTAIN /10-12 DEG ABOVE NORMAL/ BUT
INFLUENCE OF ERN PACIFIC CUTOFF PROVIDES A CHANCE OF INLAND/MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY-THURSDAY. BRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR NEXT 24 HRS AT INLAND TAF SITES UNDER
STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IFR STRATUS RETURNED TO THE COAST
WITH CIGS BELOW 1000 FT AND OCCASIONAL VIS DOWN TO 2 SM. SHOULD
STILL SEE SOME MARINE STRATUS INLAND UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER TONIGHT
AND COULD BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS TO KKLS AND POSSIBLY KSPB.
THE STRATUS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL REACH THE PORTLAND METRO
TERMINALS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /26

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC AND THERMAL LOW PRES INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS
WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL SAT MORNING.
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OVER THE INNER WATERS HAVE ENDED IN THE NORTH
BUT HAS PERSISTED SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD SO WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY UP THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THERMAL LOW PRES WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS REMAINING
BELOW 20 KT INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIND
REVERSAL OCCURRING LATE SUN AT THAT LOOKS REASONABLE.

EXPECT PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT AND A
DOMINATE PERIOD AROUND 8 SECONDS. STRONG WINDS OFF OF VANCOUVER
ISLAND WILL PRODUCE A BUILDING NW SWELL THIS WEEKEND THAT COULD
PUSH SEAS TO NEAR 10 FT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK TO
AROUND 4 TO 5 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR NW OREGON INTERIOR
     LOWLANDS...CASCADE FOOTHILLS...AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST
     RANGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR LOWER COLUMBIA AND
     SW WASHINGTON INTERIOR LOWLANDS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 031027
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
326 AM PDT FRI JUL  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
RESULTING IN PERSISTENT INLAND HEAT. THE RIDGE IS KEEPING THE MARINE
LAYER SHALLOW...WITH ITS COOLING INFLUENCE GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE
COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL VALLEYS. INLAND VALLEYS REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...
POSSIBLY LONGER. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST MAY SPIN SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH TOWARD THE
OR/CA BORDER. SOME COOLING IS POSSIBLE LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE LOOSENS ITS GRIP...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR
LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HOT WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ALL
BUT THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON AS A
STRONG AND SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM TEXAS THROUGH
OREGON AND INTO NE PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE WILL LIKELY KEEP THE MARINE
LAYER TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY APPRECIABLE COOLING IN THE INLAND
VALLEYS...AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND PROBABLY LONGER.

MODEL 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE +20 TO +22 DEG C RANGE...YIELDING
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS GIVEN FULL DAYTIME
SUNSHINE THROUGH SUNDAY. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN ONSHORE...
KEEPING THE COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL VALLEYS MUCH COOLER WITH AREAS
OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS CLEARING EACH AFTERNOON FRI/SAT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA SAT/SAT NIGHT WILL LIKELY
BE TOO FAR NORTH AND EAST TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE MARINE
LAYER. IN FACT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO INTERIOR BC MAY SHOVE
PART OF THE THERMAL LOW OFFSHORE...WEAKENING ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND CAUSING SUNDAY TO BE NEARLY AS HOT AS YESTERDAY.
PUSHING THE THERMAL LOW OFFSHORE MAY INVITE A SOUTHERLY WIND
REVERSAL/SURGE TO PUSH UP THE COAST...BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS
DOUBTFUL THE RESULTING SURGE OF MARINE AIR WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON INLAND TEMPS. IF IT DOES...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
A COOLDOWN MONDAY WOULD BE NEAR EUGENE. THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR MOST INLAND AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY...WILL HOLD ON TO THAT
THOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE NIGHT HOURS AS RELIEF WILL
BE SLOW TO COME INLAND.

WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH AN UPPER LOW FORMING OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM MAY TRIGGER AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER AS FAR
NORTH AS THE SOUTH OREGON CASCADES THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOME DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS CLIPPING LANE COUNTY. UNLESS THE UPPER LOW WOBBLES A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN PRESENTLY EXPECTED...INSTABILITY WILL BE
LACKING FOR THUNDER IN OUR CASCADES THIS WEEKEND. KEPT MENTION OF
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH
AMPLITUDE 500 MB REX BLOCK OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND OR/WA IN WEAK
TROUGH OR COL SEPARATING SWRN U.S. RIDGE AND ERN PACIFIC/GULF OF AK
RIDGE. DESPITE THE WEAK TROUGHINESS...AMS REMAINS WARM WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE HEIGHTS AND NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. LITTLE CHANGE OCCURS IN
OVERALL PATTERN INTO TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...BLOCK BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN WITH RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND PACIFIC CUTOFF MAKING SLOW EWD
PROGRESS TOWARD CNTRL CA CSTLN. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND GEFS MEMBERS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH DIFFERENCES THEREAFTER
MAINLY IN AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING OVER OR/WA/WRN CANADA AND POSITION OF
ERN PACIFIC CUTOFF. DESPITE THE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY MID
WEEK...WARM TEMPERATURES NEARLY CERTAIN /10-12 DEG ABOVE NORMAL/ BUT
INFLUENCE OF ERN PACIFIC CUTOFF PROVIDES A CHANCE OF INLAND/MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY-THURSDAY. BRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR NEXT 24 HRS AT INLAND TAF SITES UNDER
STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IFR STRATUS RETURNED TO THE COAST
WITH CIGS BELOW 1000 FT AND OCCASIONAL VIS DOWN TO 2 SM. SHOULD
STILL SEE SOME MARINE STRATUS INLAND UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER TONIGHT
AND COULD BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS TO KKLS AND POSSIBLY KSPB.
THE STRATUS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL REACH THE PORTLAND METRO
TERMINALS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /26

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC AND THERMAL LOW PRES INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS
WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL SAT MORNING.
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OVER THE INNER WATERS HAVE ENDED IN THE NORTH
BUT HAS PERSISTED SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD SO WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY UP THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THERMAL LOW PRES WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS REMAINING
BELOW 20 KT INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIND
REVERSAL OCCURRING LATE SUN AT THAT LOOKS REASONABLE.

EXPECT PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT AND A
DOMINATE PERIOD AROUND 8 SECONDS. STRONG WINDS OFF OF VANCOUVER
ISLAND WILL PRODUCE A BUILDING NW SWELL THIS WEEKEND THAT COULD
PUSH SEAS TO NEAR 10 FT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK TO
AROUND 4 TO 5 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR NW OREGON INTERIOR
     LOWLANDS...CASCADE FOOTHILLS...AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST
     RANGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR LOWER COLUMBIA AND
     SW WASHINGTON INTERIOR LOWLANDS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 031027
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
326 AM PDT FRI JUL  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
RESULTING IN PERSISTENT INLAND HEAT. THE RIDGE IS KEEPING THE MARINE
LAYER SHALLOW...WITH ITS COOLING INFLUENCE GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE
COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL VALLEYS. INLAND VALLEYS REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...
POSSIBLY LONGER. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST MAY SPIN SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH TOWARD THE
OR/CA BORDER. SOME COOLING IS POSSIBLE LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE LOOSENS ITS GRIP...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR
LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HOT WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ALL
BUT THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON AS A
STRONG AND SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM TEXAS THROUGH
OREGON AND INTO NE PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE WILL LIKELY KEEP THE MARINE
LAYER TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY APPRECIABLE COOLING IN THE INLAND
VALLEYS...AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND PROBABLY LONGER.

MODEL 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE +20 TO +22 DEG C RANGE...YIELDING
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS GIVEN FULL DAYTIME
SUNSHINE THROUGH SUNDAY. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN ONSHORE...
KEEPING THE COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL VALLEYS MUCH COOLER WITH AREAS
OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS CLEARING EACH AFTERNOON FRI/SAT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA SAT/SAT NIGHT WILL LIKELY
BE TOO FAR NORTH AND EAST TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE MARINE
LAYER. IN FACT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO INTERIOR BC MAY SHOVE
PART OF THE THERMAL LOW OFFSHORE...WEAKENING ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND CAUSING SUNDAY TO BE NEARLY AS HOT AS YESTERDAY.
PUSHING THE THERMAL LOW OFFSHORE MAY INVITE A SOUTHERLY WIND
REVERSAL/SURGE TO PUSH UP THE COAST...BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS
DOUBTFUL THE RESULTING SURGE OF MARINE AIR WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON INLAND TEMPS. IF IT DOES...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
A COOLDOWN MONDAY WOULD BE NEAR EUGENE. THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR MOST INLAND AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY...WILL HOLD ON TO THAT
THOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE NIGHT HOURS AS RELIEF WILL
BE SLOW TO COME INLAND.

WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH AN UPPER LOW FORMING OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM MAY TRIGGER AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER AS FAR
NORTH AS THE SOUTH OREGON CASCADES THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOME DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS CLIPPING LANE COUNTY. UNLESS THE UPPER LOW WOBBLES A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN PRESENTLY EXPECTED...INSTABILITY WILL BE
LACKING FOR THUNDER IN OUR CASCADES THIS WEEKEND. KEPT MENTION OF
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH
AMPLITUDE 500 MB REX BLOCK OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND OR/WA IN WEAK
TROUGH OR COL SEPARATING SWRN U.S. RIDGE AND ERN PACIFIC/GULF OF AK
RIDGE. DESPITE THE WEAK TROUGHINESS...AMS REMAINS WARM WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE HEIGHTS AND NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. LITTLE CHANGE OCCURS IN
OVERALL PATTERN INTO TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...BLOCK BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN WITH RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND PACIFIC CUTOFF MAKING SLOW EWD
PROGRESS TOWARD CNTRL CA CSTLN. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND GEFS MEMBERS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH DIFFERENCES THEREAFTER
MAINLY IN AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING OVER OR/WA/WRN CANADA AND POSITION OF
ERN PACIFIC CUTOFF. DESPITE THE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY MID
WEEK...WARM TEMPERATURES NEARLY CERTAIN /10-12 DEG ABOVE NORMAL/ BUT
INFLUENCE OF ERN PACIFIC CUTOFF PROVIDES A CHANCE OF INLAND/MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY-THURSDAY. BRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR NEXT 24 HRS AT INLAND TAF SITES UNDER
STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IFR STRATUS RETURNED TO THE COAST
WITH CIGS BELOW 1000 FT AND OCCASIONAL VIS DOWN TO 2 SM. SHOULD
STILL SEE SOME MARINE STRATUS INLAND UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER TONIGHT
AND COULD BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS TO KKLS AND POSSIBLY KSPB.
THE STRATUS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL REACH THE PORTLAND METRO
TERMINALS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /26

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC AND THERMAL LOW PRES INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS
WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL SAT MORNING.
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OVER THE INNER WATERS HAVE ENDED IN THE NORTH
BUT HAS PERSISTED SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD SO WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY UP THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THERMAL LOW PRES WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS REMAINING
BELOW 20 KT INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIND
REVERSAL OCCURRING LATE SUN AT THAT LOOKS REASONABLE.

EXPECT PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT AND A
DOMINATE PERIOD AROUND 8 SECONDS. STRONG WINDS OFF OF VANCOUVER
ISLAND WILL PRODUCE A BUILDING NW SWELL THIS WEEKEND THAT COULD
PUSH SEAS TO NEAR 10 FT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK TO
AROUND 4 TO 5 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR NW OREGON INTERIOR
     LOWLANDS...CASCADE FOOTHILLS...AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST
     RANGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR LOWER COLUMBIA AND
     SW WASHINGTON INTERIOR LOWLANDS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 031027
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
326 AM PDT FRI JUL  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
RESULTING IN PERSISTENT INLAND HEAT. THE RIDGE IS KEEPING THE MARINE
LAYER SHALLOW...WITH ITS COOLING INFLUENCE GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE
COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL VALLEYS. INLAND VALLEYS REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...
POSSIBLY LONGER. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST MAY SPIN SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH TOWARD THE
OR/CA BORDER. SOME COOLING IS POSSIBLE LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE LOOSENS ITS GRIP...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR
LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HOT WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ALL
BUT THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON AS A
STRONG AND SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM TEXAS THROUGH
OREGON AND INTO NE PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE WILL LIKELY KEEP THE MARINE
LAYER TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY APPRECIABLE COOLING IN THE INLAND
VALLEYS...AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND PROBABLY LONGER.

MODEL 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE +20 TO +22 DEG C RANGE...YIELDING
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS GIVEN FULL DAYTIME
SUNSHINE THROUGH SUNDAY. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN ONSHORE...
KEEPING THE COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL VALLEYS MUCH COOLER WITH AREAS
OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS CLEARING EACH AFTERNOON FRI/SAT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA SAT/SAT NIGHT WILL LIKELY
BE TOO FAR NORTH AND EAST TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE MARINE
LAYER. IN FACT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO INTERIOR BC MAY SHOVE
PART OF THE THERMAL LOW OFFSHORE...WEAKENING ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND CAUSING SUNDAY TO BE NEARLY AS HOT AS YESTERDAY.
PUSHING THE THERMAL LOW OFFSHORE MAY INVITE A SOUTHERLY WIND
REVERSAL/SURGE TO PUSH UP THE COAST...BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS
DOUBTFUL THE RESULTING SURGE OF MARINE AIR WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON INLAND TEMPS. IF IT DOES...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
A COOLDOWN MONDAY WOULD BE NEAR EUGENE. THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR MOST INLAND AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY...WILL HOLD ON TO THAT
THOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE NIGHT HOURS AS RELIEF WILL
BE SLOW TO COME INLAND.

WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH AN UPPER LOW FORMING OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM MAY TRIGGER AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER AS FAR
NORTH AS THE SOUTH OREGON CASCADES THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOME DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS CLIPPING LANE COUNTY. UNLESS THE UPPER LOW WOBBLES A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN PRESENTLY EXPECTED...INSTABILITY WILL BE
LACKING FOR THUNDER IN OUR CASCADES THIS WEEKEND. KEPT MENTION OF
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH
AMPLITUDE 500 MB REX BLOCK OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND OR/WA IN WEAK
TROUGH OR COL SEPARATING SWRN U.S. RIDGE AND ERN PACIFIC/GULF OF AK
RIDGE. DESPITE THE WEAK TROUGHINESS...AMS REMAINS WARM WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE HEIGHTS AND NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. LITTLE CHANGE OCCURS IN
OVERALL PATTERN INTO TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...BLOCK BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN WITH RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND PACIFIC CUTOFF MAKING SLOW EWD
PROGRESS TOWARD CNTRL CA CSTLN. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND GEFS MEMBERS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH DIFFERENCES THEREAFTER
MAINLY IN AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING OVER OR/WA/WRN CANADA AND POSITION OF
ERN PACIFIC CUTOFF. DESPITE THE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY MID
WEEK...WARM TEMPERATURES NEARLY CERTAIN /10-12 DEG ABOVE NORMAL/ BUT
INFLUENCE OF ERN PACIFIC CUTOFF PROVIDES A CHANCE OF INLAND/MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY-THURSDAY. BRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR NEXT 24 HRS AT INLAND TAF SITES UNDER
STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IFR STRATUS RETURNED TO THE COAST
WITH CIGS BELOW 1000 FT AND OCCASIONAL VIS DOWN TO 2 SM. SHOULD
STILL SEE SOME MARINE STRATUS INLAND UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER TONIGHT
AND COULD BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS TO KKLS AND POSSIBLY KSPB.
THE STRATUS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL REACH THE PORTLAND METRO
TERMINALS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /26

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC AND THERMAL LOW PRES INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS
WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL SAT MORNING.
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OVER THE INNER WATERS HAVE ENDED IN THE NORTH
BUT HAS PERSISTED SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD SO WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY UP THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THERMAL LOW PRES WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS REMAINING
BELOW 20 KT INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIND
REVERSAL OCCURRING LATE SUN AT THAT LOOKS REASONABLE.

EXPECT PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT AND A
DOMINATE PERIOD AROUND 8 SECONDS. STRONG WINDS OFF OF VANCOUVER
ISLAND WILL PRODUCE A BUILDING NW SWELL THIS WEEKEND THAT COULD
PUSH SEAS TO NEAR 10 FT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK TO
AROUND 4 TO 5 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR NW OREGON INTERIOR
     LOWLANDS...CASCADE FOOTHILLS...AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST
     RANGE.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR LOWER COLUMBIA AND
     SW WASHINGTON INTERIOR LOWLANDS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 030932
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
230 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR CONTINUED SUNNY
AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT
IN A FEW DEGREES COOLING TODAY BUT HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AND A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM SEATTLE SOUTH.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AT THE COAST AND PARITALLY INLAND TO
ABOUT SHELTON THIS MORNING WITH THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL FALL
SLIGHTLY WHILE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. CLOUDS
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE ABOUT THE SAME.

LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH A THERMAL TROUGH
ALONG THE COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A VERY WARM DAY...EVEN
FOR THE COAST. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY NEED TO EXTENDED
THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN EVENTUALLY SUNDAY. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT
COOLING WILL BE GRADUAL AND HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. LATEST MODELS ACTUALLY SHOW TEMPERATURES BUMPING
UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY BEFORE COOLING A LITTLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. LIGHT
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TREND WEAKLY OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED MARINE
MOISTURE NEAR THE COAST.

MARINE STRATUS HAS MOVED ONTO THE COAST...AND IT SHOULD MOVE UP
THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY TO AROUND SHELTON BY DAY BREAK. THE
STRATUS WILL LIKELY BURN BACK TO THE COAST BY LATE MORNING...THEN
PUSH INTO THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR.

KSEA...N WIND 4-10 KT...BECOMING NW MIDDAY TODAY.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN WASHINGTON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...WITH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WESTERLIES IN THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND
EASTERN ENTRANCE STRAIT THIS EVENING.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND...AND
WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE 20 KT OR LESS. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PROBABLY RESUME MONDAY AND TUESDAY.   MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SEATTLE...BELLEVUE...TACOMA...AND EAST PUGET
     SOUND LOWLANDS ZONES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS...CENTRAL AND EAST
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML  - TEMPORARILY OUT
OF SERVICE DURING A SOFTWARE UPDATE PERIOD.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/



000
FXUS66 KSEW 030932
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
230 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR CONTINUED SUNNY
AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT
IN A FEW DEGREES COOLING TODAY BUT HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AND A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM SEATTLE SOUTH.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AT THE COAST AND PARITALLY INLAND TO
ABOUT SHELTON THIS MORNING WITH THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL FALL
SLIGHTLY WHILE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. CLOUDS
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE ABOUT THE SAME.

LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH A THERMAL TROUGH
ALONG THE COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A VERY WARM DAY...EVEN
FOR THE COAST. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY NEED TO EXTENDED
THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN EVENTUALLY SUNDAY. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT
COOLING WILL BE GRADUAL AND HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. LATEST MODELS ACTUALLY SHOW TEMPERATURES BUMPING
UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY BEFORE COOLING A LITTLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. LIGHT
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TREND WEAKLY OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED MARINE
MOISTURE NEAR THE COAST.

MARINE STRATUS HAS MOVED ONTO THE COAST...AND IT SHOULD MOVE UP
THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY TO AROUND SHELTON BY DAY BREAK. THE
STRATUS WILL LIKELY BURN BACK TO THE COAST BY LATE MORNING...THEN
PUSH INTO THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR.

KSEA...N WIND 4-10 KT...BECOMING NW MIDDAY TODAY.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN WASHINGTON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...WITH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WESTERLIES IN THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND
EASTERN ENTRANCE STRAIT THIS EVENING.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND...AND
WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE 20 KT OR LESS. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PROBABLY RESUME MONDAY AND TUESDAY.   MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SEATTLE...BELLEVUE...TACOMA...AND EAST PUGET
     SOUND LOWLANDS ZONES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER COASTAL WATERS...CENTRAL AND EAST
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML  - TEMPORARILY OUT
OF SERVICE DURING A SOFTWARE UPDATE PERIOD.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/




000
FXUS66 KOTX 030918
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
218 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Hot and dry weather will be featured into the Independence Day
weekend. Today will be the warmest day with many valley sites
topping the century mark. Breezes will be kicking up as weather
systems move across the strong upper level ridge. Today and
Saturday winds will be increasing as a cool front tries to sag in
from Canada eventually forcing winds more from the north. It is
still looking dry and warm even into the beginning of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

...HOT..DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH INDEPENDENCE
DAY...

Today through Saturday...The ridge of high pressure will start to
be suppressed by an upper trough that will descend out of British
Columbia for the holiday weekend. Expect one more day of
widespread triple digit temperatures today. We may see some thin
high clouds over the northern zones but no precipitation for the
weekend. The main weather concern will be breezy to windy
conditions that will combine with very dry conditions to elevate
fire weather concerns. The first area of concern is the Cascade
gap valleys where northwest winds will be funneled down the
valleys. The Fire Weather Watch for fire wx zone WAZ677, which
includes the Wenatchee Valley, has been upgraded to a Red Flag
Warning. High resolution models show the winds will be right at or
just below warning criteria during this afternoon when relative
humidity will be at its lowest. We are acting on the side of
caution since fuels are much drier that usual for this time of
year and despite the widespread banning of pyrotechnics, humans
love their fireworks. The Red Flag Warning remains in effect for
WAZ676, including the Kittitas and Yakima Valleys.

The next concern will shift to the Okanogan Valley, Waterville
Plateau and western Columbia Basin on Saturday. Winds will shift
to northerly in response to an cold front approaching from the
north. The surface pressure gradient will tighten Saturday with
sustained winds increasing to 15 to 25 mph by early Saturday
morning. Winds will continue to increase through the day with
gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible. Models have been backing off a bit
on the strength of the wind speeds but even the lower range will
easily reach critical fire weather criteria when combined with
very low RH during the afternoon and evening hours. Any fire
starts on Friday will be problematic in these windy conditions for
Saturday. The elevated winds will keep overnight temperatures in
the upper 60s to low 70s for the exposed areas while the more
sheltered areas will cool off a bit more. Daytime temperatures for
Independence day will be mainly in the 90s, a little more
comfortable but still well above normal. /Kelch

Saturday night through Friday...In the big picture an interesting
pattern is setting up through this portion of the forecast
period. A rex block (high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska and low
pressure off the Cal coast) will keep the region in a northwest to
northerly flow through the middle of the week. A pair of
disturbances will drop through the northeast zones and result in
slightly cooler temperatures...breezy/gusty winds and a chance for
showers and embedded thunderstorms at times.

Saturday night and Sunday the first wave will drop down out of
B.C. Winds will increase through the day on Saturday and will
continue down the Okanogan valley and the Kettle river
valley...with the north winds gradually getting into the Purcell
trench Saturday night and Sunday. The atmosphere will remain very
dry with poor overnight recoveries. A Red Flag warning is in place
through Saturday evening and that looks like a very good call
still. The models are hinting at some moisture associated with
this front just clipping the north Idaho Panhandle. Typically
fronts that originate in the northern Canadian plains are pretty
dry and the decision was made to keep conditions dry. Temperatures
will drop 3-5 degrees on Sunday but will still remain well above
seasonal averages.

Weak high pressure Sunday into Monday will give way to another
wave Monday night and Tuesday taking a track very close to the
one on Saturday. Model guidance has been very similar the past
several runs showing a decent surge of mid level moisture with the
front. As such pops were bumped up a bit for the northeast
Washington mountains and the Idaho Panhandle. Instability
parameters are such that embedded thunderstorms will be possible
late in the day and early evening. The models diverge Tuesday
night and Wednesday, with one model hanging onto the shortwave and
others keeping the flow progressive. Pops were kept along the
ID/MT border into Wednesday but confidence is low that anything
other than some fair weather cumulus will develop. Temperatures
will remain in the 80s and 90s.

Thursday and Friday...Model consistency really begins to fail
Thursday and Friday. The consensus will be for weak high pressure
to build back into the region both days for a slight warm up and
very dry conditions. Stay tuned. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A dry and stable airmass will remain over the aviation
area allowing for VFR conditions at all TAF sites through 06Z
Sat. NW winds will increase in the late afternoon across the KEAT
taf site.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane       100  68  96  65  89  64 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  97  63  94  61  86  59 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        97  58  93  57  91  55 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston      104  70 101  69  98  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville      102  64  98  60  93  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      96  55  93  54  85  51 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        97  62  92  59  85  56 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Moses Lake    106  68 102  70  97  66 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee     105  74 101  72  98  72 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak          104  69  98  63  96  64 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Lewis and Southern
     Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Wenatchee Area.

     Red Flag Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone
     677)-East Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone
     676).

     Red Flag Warning from Noon to 10 PM PDT Saturday for East
     Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East
     Washington Okanogan Highlands (Zone 687)-East Washington
     Okanogan/Methow Valleys (Zone 684).

&&

$$



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