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000
FXUS66 KOTX 061151
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
451 AM PDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be warm and breezy with afternoon temperatures in the
upper 70s and lower 80s. The warm weather will persist into
Saturday. The arrival of a cold front will bring gusty winds to
much of the Inland Northwest Sunday. Monday will likely be the
coolest day next week with scattered showers and high temperatures
in the 60s and low 70s. A return to warmer than average conditions
is likely by Wednesday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday: The Inland NW will transition to a drier and
breezy weather pattern today. Winds diminish some Saturday while
dry weather persists. Temperatures will be warming well above
normal.

Deep southerly flow that was in place the last few days has finally
reversed with north to northeast gradients now chasing a deep low
migrating into the Southwestern US. This flow pattern is drawing
drier air in from the north and with the exception of the Blue
Mtns and Camas Prairie, will deliver a dry forecast this Friday.
We are still dealing with showers this morning in the Idaho
Panhandle associated with the remnants of this evening`s
convection. Expect this activity to wane around sunrise and
struggle to make little progression to the west. The dry air will
struggle to penetrate much further south and east of the Palouse
and Central Panhandle Mtns but shortwave ridging aloft will yield
a few degrees of warming aloft and begin to stabilize the
atmosphere. Some cumulus buildups are likely during the afternoon
but the main threat for isolated showers or weak thunderstorms
will focus over the higher terrain of the Camas Prairie and Blue
Mtns but this carries low confidence within my CWA boundaries as
the latest SREF pops have now fallen below 10%. Chances look much
better further south into NE Oregon and southward in the Idaho
Panhandle closer to McCall, ID.

So the big story today will be gusty north to northeast winds.  We have
seen an upward trend with speeds in the evening model guidance
and have bumped up speeds for the Okanogan Valley, Purcell Trench,
and Basin. Sustained speeds at locations like Omak, Sandpoint,
Coeur D Alene, and across the open Columbia Basin including
Ritzville will range between 20-25 mph with gusts near 35 mph.
Area lakes could be a bit choppy if exposed to these N/NE
gradients and high profile vehicles may sway around a bit on E-W
travel routes. This morning`s LAMP guidance suggest Sandpoint AP
may come close to advisory speeds and sustained near 30 mph. This
is a bit of an outlier but will be monitored closely this morning.
Winds will peak this morning and afternoon and decrease some
overnight but generally remain in the breezy category through
midday Saturday.

Temperatures will be warming back into the 70s to lower 80s...roughly
10-15 degrees above seasonal normal`s. Overnight lows will be
cooler returning to the 40s and lower 50s and look to remain above
freezing, even in the northern valleys. /sb

Sunday and Monday: A "dry" cold front is expected to bring gusty
west or northwest winds on Sunday. The GFS, NAM, and ECMWF are in
decent agreement that a progressive 500mb trough will spill over
the top of the West Coast ridge Sunday. Deep layer cold advection
combined with a tight westerly gradient across the Cascades will
promote gusty winds Sunday. The GFS forecasts stronger 850mb winds
(30-35kts) compared to the NAM and ECWMF (25-30kts) over the
Palouse. Using the NAM/ECMWF, it looks like sustained winds of 15
to 20 mph will be common over much of eastern Washington with
gusts to 30 mph. Locally higher winds will likely develop through
the Cascade gaps around Wenatchee, Chelan, and Vantage late in
the day and into the early evening with gusts of 35 mph or more. A
few showers will be possible Sunday and Sunday evening along the
Cascade Crest and over the mountains of far north Idaho, but the
remainder of the Inland Northwest will lack sufficient moisture
for showers Sunday.

Monday looks to be the coolest day next week, and will likely
feature the best chance for showers, namely over the Idaho
Panhandle and eastern third of Washington. There is good model
agreement that vigorous cooling aloft will accompany the passage
of a 500mb low Monday. The combination of diurnal heating,
westerly upslope flow, and the arrival of a -25C to -27C cold pool
at 500mb will contribute to showers over the Panhandle and
adjacent parts of eastern Washington. Surface based CAPE values of
200-400 J/KG may support widely scattered thunderstorms. At this
time, thunderstorms have not been included in the forecast, but
may need to be added if the instability forecast remains
consistent.

Tuesday through Friday: A longwave trough is expected to become
anchored over the Dakotas for much of next week. The Idaho
Panhandle may be under the western periphery of this trough from
time to time next week leading to the possibility of scattered
afternoon showers. Tuesday morning will be seasonably chilly and
some of the typically cold spots (Deer Park, Springdale, Republic,
Priest Lake) in northeast Washington and north Idaho will dip
into the mid 30s. In general temperatures next week have been
lowered compared to the previous forecast, but in general above
average readings are expected Wednesday through Friday. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: There is a small chance for isold -tsra across the
higher terrain south of Lewiston, otherwise the main foucus on
aviation will be gusty north to northeast winds. The strongest
winds will impact airports such as Omak, Moses Lake, Sandpoint,
Coeru D Alene, and Spokane. Winds will peak this morning and
afternoon, remain breezy through Saturday morning but decrease
in speeds relative to today. /sb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        78  53  82  52  73  44 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  77  50  82  50  72  43 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Pullman        76  49  79  49  69  42 /  10  10  10   0  10  10
Lewiston       81  53  84  54  75  46 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       82  46  85  48  76  43 /  10   0   0   0  10  20
Sandpoint      73  44  80  45  70  43 /  10  10   0   0  20  20
Kellogg        74  44  80  47  68  41 /  20  10  10   0  10  20
Moses Lake     83  53  87  51  78  46 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      82  57  86  56  75  47 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           82  52  86  51  77  44 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 060956
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
256 AM PDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be warm and breezy with afternoon temperatures in the
upper 70s and lower 80s. The warm weather will persist into
Saturday. The arrival of a cold front will bring gusty winds to
much of the Inland Northwest Sunday. Monday will likely be the
coolest day next week with scattered showers and high temperatures
in the 60s and low 70s. A return to warmer than average conditions
is likely by Wednesday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday: The Inland NW will transition to a drier and
breezy weather pattern today. Winds diminish some Saturday while
dry weather persists. Temperatures will be warming well above
normal.

Deep southerly flow that was in place the last few days has finally
reversed with north to northeast gradients now chasing a deep low
migrating into the Southwestern US. This flow pattern is drawing
drier air in from the north and with the exception of the Blue
Mtns and Camas Prairie, will deliver a dry forecast this Friday.
We are still dealing with showers this morning in the Idaho
Panhandle associated with the remnants of this evening`s
convection. Expect this activity to wane around sunrise and
struggle to make little progression to the west. The dry air will
struggle to penetrate much further south and east of the Palouse
and Central Panhandle Mtns but shortwave ridging aloft will yield
a few degrees of warming aloft and begin to stabilize the
atmosphere. Some cumulus buildups are likely during the afternoon
but the main threat for isolated showers or weak thunderstorms
will focus over the higher terrain of the Camas Prairie and Blue
Mtns but this carries low confidence within my CWA boundaries as
the latest SREF pops have now fallen below 10%. Chances look much
better further south into NE Oregon and southward in the Idaho
Panhandle closer to McCall, ID.

So the big story today will be gusty north to northeast winds.  We have
seen an upward trend with speeds in the evening model guidance
and have bumped up speeds for the Okanogan Valley, Purcell Trench,
and Basin. Sustained speeds at locations like Omak, Sandpoint,
Coeur D Alene, and across the open Columbia Basin including
Ritzville will range between 20-25 mph with gusts near 35 mph.
Area lakes could be a bit choppy if exposed to these N/NE
gradients and high profile vehicles may sway around a bit on E-W
travel routes. This morning`s LAMP guidance suggest Sandpoint AP
may come close to advisory speeds and sustained near 30 mph. This
is a bit of an outlier but will be monitored closely this morning.
Winds will peak this morning and afternoon and decrease some
overnight but generally remain in the breezy category through
midday Saturday.

Temperatures will be warming back into the 70s to lower 80s...roughly
10-15 degrees above seasonal normal`s. Overnight lows will be
cooler returning to the 40s and lower 50s and look to remain above
freezing, even in the northern valleys. /sb

Sunday and Monday: A "dry" cold front is expected to bring gusty
west or northwest winds on Sunday. The GFS, NAM, and ECMWF are in
decent agreement that a progressive 500mb trough will spill over
the top of the West Coast ridge Sunday. Deep layer cold advection
combined with a tight westerly gradient across the Cascades will
promote gusty winds Sunday. The GFS forecasts stronger 850mb winds
(30-35kts) compared to the NAM and ECWMF (25-30kts) over the
Palouse. Using the NAM/ECMWF, it looks like sustained winds of 15
to 20 mph will be common over much of eastern Washington with
gusts to 30 mph. Locally higher winds will likely develop through
the Cascade gaps around Wenatchee, Chelan, and Vantage late in
the day and into the early evening with gusts of 35 mph or more. A
few showers will be possible Sunday and Sunday evening along the
Cascade Crest and over the mountains of far north Idaho, but the
remainder of the Inland Northwest will lack sufficient moisture
for showers Sunday.

Monday looks to be the coolest day next week, and will likely
feature the best chance for showers, namely over the Idaho
Panhandle and eastern third of Washington. There is good model
agreement that vigorous cooling aloft will accompany the passage
of a 500mb low Monday. The combination of diurnal heating,
westerly upslope flow, and the arrival of a -25C to -27C cold pool
at 500mb will contribute to showers over the Panhandle and
adjacent parts of eastern Washington. Surface based CAPE values of
200-400 J/KG may support widely scattered thunderstorms. At this
time, thunderstorms have not been included in the forecast, but
may need to be added if the instability forecast remains
consistent.

Tuesday through Friday: A longwave trough is expected to become
anchored over the Dakotas for much of next week. The Idaho
Panhandle may be under the western periphery of this trough from
time to time next week leading to the possibility of scattered
afternoon showers. Tuesday morning will be seasonably chilly and
some of the typically cold spots (Deer Park, Springdale, Republic,
Priest Lake) in northeast Washington and north Idaho will dip
into the mid 30s. In general temperatures next week have been
lowered compared to the previous forecast, but in general above
average readings are expected Wednesday through Friday. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue tonight
over far SE Washington into the south Idaho Panhandle. This will
moisten the boundary layer and could led to areas of stratus by
sunrise near KPUW/KLWS. But for now kept prevailing conditions
MVFR due to only light rain amounts near KPUW/KLWS with the best
chance of stratus east of these TAF sites. Otherwise a tight
northerly pressure gradient develops tonight which will result in
increasing north- northeast winds especially at KMWH/KCOE by
Friday morning. Friday afternoon the best chance of thunderstorms
will be over the mountains near Lewiston as the increasing north-
northeast winds helps dry out the lower level air mass over much
of Central and Northeast Washington into the north Idaho
Panhandle. JW



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        78  53  82  52  73  44 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  77  50  82  50  72  43 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Pullman        76  49  79  49  69  42 /  10  10  10   0  10  10
Lewiston       81  53  84  54  75  46 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       82  46  85  48  76  43 /  10   0   0   0  10  20
Sandpoint      73  44  80  45  70  43 /  10  10   0   0  20  20
Kellogg        74  44  80  47  68  41 /  20  10  10   0  10  20
Moses Lake     83  53  87  51  78  46 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      82  57  86  56  75  47 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           82  52  86  51  77  44 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 060956
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
256 AM PDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be warm and breezy with afternoon temperatures in the
upper 70s and lower 80s. The warm weather will persist into
Saturday. The arrival of a cold front will bring gusty winds to
much of the Inland Northwest Sunday. Monday will likely be the
coolest day next week with scattered showers and high temperatures
in the 60s and low 70s. A return to warmer than average conditions
is likely by Wednesday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday: The Inland NW will transition to a drier and
breezy weather pattern today. Winds diminish some Saturday while
dry weather persists. Temperatures will be warming well above
normal.

Deep southerly flow that was in place the last few days has finally
reversed with north to northeast gradients now chasing a deep low
migrating into the Southwestern US. This flow pattern is drawing
drier air in from the north and with the exception of the Blue
Mtns and Camas Prairie, will deliver a dry forecast this Friday.
We are still dealing with showers this morning in the Idaho
Panhandle associated with the remnants of this evening`s
convection. Expect this activity to wane around sunrise and
struggle to make little progression to the west. The dry air will
struggle to penetrate much further south and east of the Palouse
and Central Panhandle Mtns but shortwave ridging aloft will yield
a few degrees of warming aloft and begin to stabilize the
atmosphere. Some cumulus buildups are likely during the afternoon
but the main threat for isolated showers or weak thunderstorms
will focus over the higher terrain of the Camas Prairie and Blue
Mtns but this carries low confidence within my CWA boundaries as
the latest SREF pops have now fallen below 10%. Chances look much
better further south into NE Oregon and southward in the Idaho
Panhandle closer to McCall, ID.

So the big story today will be gusty north to northeast winds.  We have
seen an upward trend with speeds in the evening model guidance
and have bumped up speeds for the Okanogan Valley, Purcell Trench,
and Basin. Sustained speeds at locations like Omak, Sandpoint,
Coeur D Alene, and across the open Columbia Basin including
Ritzville will range between 20-25 mph with gusts near 35 mph.
Area lakes could be a bit choppy if exposed to these N/NE
gradients and high profile vehicles may sway around a bit on E-W
travel routes. This morning`s LAMP guidance suggest Sandpoint AP
may come close to advisory speeds and sustained near 30 mph. This
is a bit of an outlier but will be monitored closely this morning.
Winds will peak this morning and afternoon and decrease some
overnight but generally remain in the breezy category through
midday Saturday.

Temperatures will be warming back into the 70s to lower 80s...roughly
10-15 degrees above seasonal normal`s. Overnight lows will be
cooler returning to the 40s and lower 50s and look to remain above
freezing, even in the northern valleys. /sb

Sunday and Monday: A "dry" cold front is expected to bring gusty
west or northwest winds on Sunday. The GFS, NAM, and ECMWF are in
decent agreement that a progressive 500mb trough will spill over
the top of the West Coast ridge Sunday. Deep layer cold advection
combined with a tight westerly gradient across the Cascades will
promote gusty winds Sunday. The GFS forecasts stronger 850mb winds
(30-35kts) compared to the NAM and ECWMF (25-30kts) over the
Palouse. Using the NAM/ECMWF, it looks like sustained winds of 15
to 20 mph will be common over much of eastern Washington with
gusts to 30 mph. Locally higher winds will likely develop through
the Cascade gaps around Wenatchee, Chelan, and Vantage late in
the day and into the early evening with gusts of 35 mph or more. A
few showers will be possible Sunday and Sunday evening along the
Cascade Crest and over the mountains of far north Idaho, but the
remainder of the Inland Northwest will lack sufficient moisture
for showers Sunday.

Monday looks to be the coolest day next week, and will likely
feature the best chance for showers, namely over the Idaho
Panhandle and eastern third of Washington. There is good model
agreement that vigorous cooling aloft will accompany the passage
of a 500mb low Monday. The combination of diurnal heating,
westerly upslope flow, and the arrival of a -25C to -27C cold pool
at 500mb will contribute to showers over the Panhandle and
adjacent parts of eastern Washington. Surface based CAPE values of
200-400 J/KG may support widely scattered thunderstorms. At this
time, thunderstorms have not been included in the forecast, but
may need to be added if the instability forecast remains
consistent.

Tuesday through Friday: A longwave trough is expected to become
anchored over the Dakotas for much of next week. The Idaho
Panhandle may be under the western periphery of this trough from
time to time next week leading to the possibility of scattered
afternoon showers. Tuesday morning will be seasonably chilly and
some of the typically cold spots (Deer Park, Springdale, Republic,
Priest Lake) in northeast Washington and north Idaho will dip
into the mid 30s. In general temperatures next week have been
lowered compared to the previous forecast, but in general above
average readings are expected Wednesday through Friday. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue tonight
over far SE Washington into the south Idaho Panhandle. This will
moisten the boundary layer and could led to areas of stratus by
sunrise near KPUW/KLWS. But for now kept prevailing conditions
MVFR due to only light rain amounts near KPUW/KLWS with the best
chance of stratus east of these TAF sites. Otherwise a tight
northerly pressure gradient develops tonight which will result in
increasing north- northeast winds especially at KMWH/KCOE by
Friday morning. Friday afternoon the best chance of thunderstorms
will be over the mountains near Lewiston as the increasing north-
northeast winds helps dry out the lower level air mass over much
of Central and Northeast Washington into the north Idaho
Panhandle. JW



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        78  53  82  52  73  44 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  77  50  82  50  72  43 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Pullman        76  49  79  49  69  42 /  10  10  10   0  10  10
Lewiston       81  53  84  54  75  46 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Colville       82  46  85  48  76  43 /  10   0   0   0  10  20
Sandpoint      73  44  80  45  70  43 /  10  10   0   0  20  20
Kellogg        74  44  80  47  68  41 /  20  10  10   0  10  20
Moses Lake     83  53  87  51  78  46 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      82  57  86  56  75  47 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           82  52  86  51  77  44 /   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSEW 060917
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
217 AM PDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY
AND SATURDAY PROVIDING INCREASED SUNSHINE AND A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A TROUGH WILL INDUCE MUCH COOLER ONSHORE FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH SOME DRIZZLE OR SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR IMAGERY PRETTY QUIET THIS EARLY MORNING AS ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE CASCADE CREST EARLIER IN THE NIGHT
HAS SINCE QUIETED. GETTING SOME ECHOES OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT WITH IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR SKIES...GOING
TO DISMISS THOSE AS FALSE RETURNS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
TODAY...PRODUCING A THERMAL PRESSURE TROUGH BY MID TO LATE THIS
MORNING AND RESULTING IN A BRIEF WINDOW OF OFFSHORE FLOW. STILL...IT
IS AN INSTANCE OF A LITTLE DAB WILL DO YOU AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR THE MAJORITY OF
LOWLAND LOCATIONS. ONSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO GENTLY CREEP BACK IN FOR
SATURDAY...COOLING OFF THE COAST BACK DOWN INTO THE 60S...BUT MAKES
LITTLE HEADWAY INLAND...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO PEAK ON
SATURDAY IN THE HIGH 70S...WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS GETTING UP TO THE
LOW 80S.

THE RIDGE FINALLY STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. PROBABLY START TO SEE
THE EARLIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH POPS PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS TRACKING FURTHER EAST THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS. IF THIS SOLUTION REMAINS CONSISTENT...THE
LOW END CHANCE POPS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE SHAVED
A BIT MORE...POSSIBLY DOWN TO SILENT POPS LESS THAN 10 PCT...BUT
AGAIN...THAT WILL DEPEND ON FUTURE RUNS.

REGARDLESS OF THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP...THIS LOW WILL USHER IN MUCH
COOLER MARINE AIR ALLOWING FOR TEMPS SUNDAY TO BE FAR MORE
SEASONABLE THAN WHAT WESTERN WASHINGTON IS EXPERIENCING.
UNFORTUNATELY...THOSE COOLER TEMPS ARE SHORT LIVED AS A NEW WARMING
TREND IS ALREADY IN THE CARDS FOR MONDAY.

MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE MORE EASTWARD TRACK OF
NEXT SYSTEM...LOWERING POPS A TOUCH OVER THE AREA...BUT
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST.  SMR

.LONG TERM...STOP ME IF THIS SOUNDS FAMILIAR...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE PACIFIC WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
TUESDAY SEES A DRAMATIC JUMP IN TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID 70S IN
LOWLAND LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY PROGGED FOR
LOWER 80S IN MANY LOCATIONS. SOME SLIGHT COOLING IS POSSIBLE FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ALBERTA PUSHES BACK
AGAINST THE RIDGE AND EXERTING A WEAK INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA. NOT
ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIP...BUT SHAVING OFF A FEW DEGREES FROM FORECAST
HIGH TEMPS AT THAT POINT WOULD CERTAINLY BE WELCOME.  SMR

&&

.AVIATION...FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON HAS SWITCHED FROM
SOUTHERLY TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE CASCADES
EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE.

THE AIR MASS WILL BE GENERALLY DRY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER
BELOW 12000 FT...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF LOW LEVEL MARINE STRATUS OR
FOG ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING.

KSEA...NORTH WIND 6-12 KT RISING TO 8-16 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
EASING TO 6-12 KT AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER
BELOW 12000 FT. MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...NORTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND LOWER PRESSURE EAST
OF THE CASCADES. NORTHWEST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLIES
SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE PUGET SOUND THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS EVENING.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
STRONG MARINE PUSH DEVELOPS. WESTERLY GALES ARE LIKELY IN THE
CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITH
THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH A FORECAST OF 30 TO 40
KT WINDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE LIKELY ALL OTHER MARINE
ZONES EXCEPT PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.

ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY...THEN EASE MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER
     10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
     SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST
     ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT PDT
     TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST
     ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 060917
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
217 AM PDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY
AND SATURDAY PROVIDING INCREASED SUNSHINE AND A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A TROUGH WILL INDUCE MUCH COOLER ONSHORE FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH SOME DRIZZLE OR SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR IMAGERY PRETTY QUIET THIS EARLY MORNING AS ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE CASCADE CREST EARLIER IN THE NIGHT
HAS SINCE QUIETED. GETTING SOME ECHOES OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT WITH IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR SKIES...GOING
TO DISMISS THOSE AS FALSE RETURNS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
TODAY...PRODUCING A THERMAL PRESSURE TROUGH BY MID TO LATE THIS
MORNING AND RESULTING IN A BRIEF WINDOW OF OFFSHORE FLOW. STILL...IT
IS AN INSTANCE OF A LITTLE DAB WILL DO YOU AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR THE MAJORITY OF
LOWLAND LOCATIONS. ONSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO GENTLY CREEP BACK IN FOR
SATURDAY...COOLING OFF THE COAST BACK DOWN INTO THE 60S...BUT MAKES
LITTLE HEADWAY INLAND...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO PEAK ON
SATURDAY IN THE HIGH 70S...WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS GETTING UP TO THE
LOW 80S.

THE RIDGE FINALLY STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. PROBABLY START TO SEE
THE EARLIEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH POPS PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS TRACKING FURTHER EAST THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS. IF THIS SOLUTION REMAINS CONSISTENT...THE
LOW END CHANCE POPS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE SHAVED
A BIT MORE...POSSIBLY DOWN TO SILENT POPS LESS THAN 10 PCT...BUT
AGAIN...THAT WILL DEPEND ON FUTURE RUNS.

REGARDLESS OF THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP...THIS LOW WILL USHER IN MUCH
COOLER MARINE AIR ALLOWING FOR TEMPS SUNDAY TO BE FAR MORE
SEASONABLE THAN WHAT WESTERN WASHINGTON IS EXPERIENCING.
UNFORTUNATELY...THOSE COOLER TEMPS ARE SHORT LIVED AS A NEW WARMING
TREND IS ALREADY IN THE CARDS FOR MONDAY.

MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE MORE EASTWARD TRACK OF
NEXT SYSTEM...LOWERING POPS A TOUCH OVER THE AREA...BUT
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST.  SMR

.LONG TERM...STOP ME IF THIS SOUNDS FAMILIAR...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE PACIFIC WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
TUESDAY SEES A DRAMATIC JUMP IN TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID 70S IN
LOWLAND LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY PROGGED FOR
LOWER 80S IN MANY LOCATIONS. SOME SLIGHT COOLING IS POSSIBLE FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ALBERTA PUSHES BACK
AGAINST THE RIDGE AND EXERTING A WEAK INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA. NOT
ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIP...BUT SHAVING OFF A FEW DEGREES FROM FORECAST
HIGH TEMPS AT THAT POINT WOULD CERTAINLY BE WELCOME.  SMR

&&

.AVIATION...FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON HAS SWITCHED FROM
SOUTHERLY TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE CASCADES
EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE.

THE AIR MASS WILL BE GENERALLY DRY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER
BELOW 12000 FT...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF LOW LEVEL MARINE STRATUS OR
FOG ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING.

KSEA...NORTH WIND 6-12 KT RISING TO 8-16 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
EASING TO 6-12 KT AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER
BELOW 12000 FT. MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...NORTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND LOWER PRESSURE EAST
OF THE CASCADES. NORTHWEST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLIES
SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE PUGET SOUND THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS EVENING.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
STRONG MARINE PUSH DEVELOPS. WESTERLY GALES ARE LIKELY IN THE
CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITH
THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH A FORECAST OF 30 TO 40
KT WINDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE LIKELY ALL OTHER MARINE
ZONES EXCEPT PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.

ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY...THEN EASE MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER
     10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
     SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST
     ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT PDT
     TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST
     ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 060906
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
207 AM PDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
WEAK FRONT WILL BRING MARINE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
DROP MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING
BACK OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEK WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED A LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE S
CA COAST...WITH THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING TROUGH AXIS RUNNING ROUGHLY
UP THE PACIFIC NW COAST. MODELS CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS TREND OF
INDICATING THE LOW MOVING SLOWLY E AND THEN NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ACROSS THE DESERT SW. WHILE SURFACE PRES GRADIENTS REMAINED ONSHORE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRI MORNING...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ABOVE
THE SURFACE WAS OFFSHORE OUT OF THE NE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN DRYING
OVER THE AIR MASS AT LOW LEVELS...WITH LITTLE INDICATION IN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF ANY MARINE CLOUDS
REDEVELOPING. THE MOST LIKELY AREA IN THIS PATTERN FOR ANY LOW
CLOUDS OR FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE MORNING WOULD BE ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST...SO WILL LEAVE A MENTION FOR CLOUDS AND FOG IN THIS
MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN HINTING AT SOME CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY OVER
THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MOST MODEL QPF FIELDS
GENERALLY INDICATE ANY THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUPPRESSED SE
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE INCREASINGLY EASTERLY MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TODAY WILL HANG ON TO A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE S PART OF THE CASCADES. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST INTO SAT AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE E AND A SW TO NE ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE SINKS DOWN OVER THE
REGION SAT. SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPS AGAIN FRI AND
SAT.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A EITHER A WEAK COLD
FRONT OR A STRONG NW MARINE PUSH...YOU DECIDE. EITHER WAY DEEP
MARINE MOISTURE MOVES IN SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS NW BEHIND
A SHORTWAVE CUTTING ACROSS WA. WITH SOME DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP IN CHANCES FOR DRIZZLE MOVING IN SAT NIGHT...THEN
SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MORNING SUN. COOLER
TEMPS ALSO IN STORE...AND MORE IN LINE WITH CLIMATOLOGY WITH THE
MARINE AIR MASS.
&&

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NW MON IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP THE COOLER AIR AND MARINE CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH
MON MORNING. GENERAL TREND WITH MODELS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
HAS HEIGHTS BUILDING OVER THE REGION AS AN OFFSHORE RIDGE NUDGES
EASTWARD. WITH A THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH EXPECTED TO BUILD UP ALONG
THE OREGON COAST TUE THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
BRINGING DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEK. BY THU GFS AND EC AGREE ON H8 TEMPS REACHING 15 TO 16 DEG
C...WHICH SHOULD BE GOOD FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 80S IN THE
INLAND VALLEYS. WARMEST TEMPS ON THE COAST HOWEVER APPEAR LIKELY TO
COME ON WED...AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS LATER IN THE WEEK WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS MOVING INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS THE BOARD EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE MAY BE
SOME LOCALIZED LOW-END MVFR OR HIGH-END IFR CIGS ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST THROUGH 16Z OR SO. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS BETWEEN KCVO AND KEUG 12Z TO 16Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z SAT. NORTH WIND GUSTS 20-30 KT ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI EVENING. WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PRIMARY
MARINE ISSUE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT WIND ADVISORY TIMING. 00Z NAM AND
GFS SHOW WIND SPEEDS EASING JUST A BIT FRI MORNING...BUT
INCREASING AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTER WATERS WILL REMAIN IN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST SAT
EVENING...IF NOT A LITTLE LONGER. 00Z NAM SHOWS 30 KT BOUNDARY
LAYER SUSTAINED SPEEDS OVER PZZ275 FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH 975MB SPEEDS PUSHING 40 KT. CONTEMPLATED GOING WITH
A GALE WARNING FOR PZZ275...BUT FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN UPPER-END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS.

INNER WATERS GET COMPLICATED. WENT WITH A NEW SMALL CRAFT WIND
ADVISORY FOR PZZ255 18Z THIS MORNING THROUGH 09Z SAT. EXPECT GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT. NORTHERN INNER WATERS...PZZ250...SHOULD SEE WIND
SPEEDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND
ENDING A LITTLE SOONER THAN PZZ255.

COLD FRONT...OR MORE LIKE A STRONG MARINE SURGE...OCCURS
SUN...WHICH WILL TURN THE WIND MORE OUT OF THE NW. STRONGEST
SPEEDS EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NRN OUTER WATERS SUN. WIND SPEEDS
FINALLY FALL BELOW 20 KT MON...AND SHIFT NORTH TO NORTHEAST MON
NIGHT AS A THERMALLY-INDUCED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE
COASTLINE.

WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL CONTINUE THE CHOPPY CONDITIONS WITH SQUARE
SEAS AT TIMES. HIGHEST SEAS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN
PZZ275 WHERE WIND-WAVES UP TO 8 FT ARE LIKELY. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
     PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 7 AM
     PDT THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 060555
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1055 PM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Most of the Inland NW will see dry and mild conditions Friday
through the weekend. However breezy to locally windy conditions
are expected at times...especially Sunday afternoon and evening as
a strong cold front passes through. Cooler and unsettled weather
is expected on Monday before a warming trend begins again for the
middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: Large closed low moving towards the southern California
coast tonight continues to pump moisture up from the south into
southeast Washington into the south Idaho Panhandle. Storms
earlier this evening over NE Oregon have moved into the Blue
Mountains, Camas Prairie, and Lewiston area as of 945 pm, with
another cell between St. Maries and Clarkia. Yet another batch of
storms is approaching Kamiah. The forecast for tonight has been
updated based on current radar and lightning trends. The NAM shows
most unstable CAPE values of 200-500 J/KG persisting into the
overnight hours in these areas and thus a chance of thunderstorms
was extended into the overnight hours. Elsewhere drier north-
northeast flow in the lower levels as well as more stability in
the mid levels should keep dry conditions persisting into the
overnight hours. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue tonight
over far SE Washington into the south Idaho Panhandle. This will
moisten the boundary layer and could led to areas of stratus by
sunrise near KPUW/KLWS. But for now kept prevailing conditions
MVFR due to only light rain amounts near KPUW/KLWS with the best
chance of stratus east of these TAF sites. Otherwise a tight
northerly pressure gradient develops tonight which will result in
increasing north- northeast winds especially at KMWH/KCOE by
Friday morning. Friday afternoon the best chance of thunderstorms
will be over the mountains near Lewiston as the increasing north-
northeast winds helps dry out the lower level air mass over much
of Central and Northeast Washington into the north Idaho
Panhandle. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  77  54  81  55  76 /  10  10  10   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  49  76  50  81  52  75 /  20  10  10  10   0  10
Pullman        49  75  49  78  51  72 /  50  10  10  10   0  10
Lewiston       53  81  54  83  56  78 /  50  20  10  10  10  10
Colville       45  81  47  85  48  80 /  10  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      47  74  44  79  46  73 /  20  10  10   0   0  20
Kellogg        45  73  44  79  46  72 /  50  10  10  10   0  20
Moses Lake     52  83  53  86  52  80 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      54  82  57  86  58  77 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           48  81  53  85  52  79 /  10  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 060458
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
958 PM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible mainly across
southeast Washington into the Idaho Panhandle this evening. Some
storms will be capable of heavy rainfall...hail...and gusty winds.
Improving but breezy conditions will begin on Friday, lasting
through the weekend. More unsettled and cooler weather is expected
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: Large closed low moving towards the southern California
coast tonight continues to pump moisture up from the south into
southeast Washington into the south Idaho Panhandle. Storms
earlier this evening over NE Oregon have moved into the Blue
Mountains, Camas Prairie, and Lewiston area as of 945 pm, with
another cell between St. Maries and Clarkia. Yet another batch of
storms is approaching Kamiah. The forecast for tonight has been
updated based on current radar and lightning trends. The NAM shows
most unstable CAPE values of 200-500 J/KG persisting into the
overnight hours in these areas and thus a chance of thunderstorms
was extended into the overnight hours. Elsewhere drier north-
northeast flow in the lower levels as well as more stability in
the mid levels should keep dry conditions persisting into the
overnight hours. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Main aviation concern is the potential for thunderstorms
mainly over southeast Washington and the south Idaho Panhandle
this evening which could impact the KLWS/KPUW TAF sites. Thus far
the storms are weakening as they come off the Blue Mountains and
the HRRR shows storms weakening this evening as they approach the
KLWS/KPUW TAF sites. Thus for now confidence is only low to
moderate of these sites being impacted and thus thunder was
removed for now. However will be monitoring radar trends.
Otherwise a tight northerly pressure gradient develops tonight
which will result in increasing north-northeast winds especially at
KMWH/KCOE by Friday morning. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  77  54  81  55  76 /  10  10  10   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  49  76  50  81  52  75 /  20  10  10  10   0  10
Pullman        49  75  49  78  51  72 /  20  10  10  10   0  10
Lewiston       53  81  54  83  56  78 /  50  20  10  10  10  10
Colville       45  81  47  85  48  80 /  10  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      47  74  44  79  46  73 /  20  10  10   0   0  20
Kellogg        45  73  44  79  46  72 /  50  10  10  10   0  20
Moses Lake     52  83  53  86  52  80 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      54  82  57  86  58  77 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           48  81  53  85  52  79 /  10  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 060458
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
958 PM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible mainly across
southeast Washington into the Idaho Panhandle this evening. Some
storms will be capable of heavy rainfall...hail...and gusty winds.
Improving but breezy conditions will begin on Friday, lasting
through the weekend. More unsettled and cooler weather is expected
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Update: Large closed low moving towards the southern California
coast tonight continues to pump moisture up from the south into
southeast Washington into the south Idaho Panhandle. Storms
earlier this evening over NE Oregon have moved into the Blue
Mountains, Camas Prairie, and Lewiston area as of 945 pm, with
another cell between St. Maries and Clarkia. Yet another batch of
storms is approaching Kamiah. The forecast for tonight has been
updated based on current radar and lightning trends. The NAM shows
most unstable CAPE values of 200-500 J/KG persisting into the
overnight hours in these areas and thus a chance of thunderstorms
was extended into the overnight hours. Elsewhere drier north-
northeast flow in the lower levels as well as more stability in
the mid levels should keep dry conditions persisting into the
overnight hours. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Main aviation concern is the potential for thunderstorms
mainly over southeast Washington and the south Idaho Panhandle
this evening which could impact the KLWS/KPUW TAF sites. Thus far
the storms are weakening as they come off the Blue Mountains and
the HRRR shows storms weakening this evening as they approach the
KLWS/KPUW TAF sites. Thus for now confidence is only low to
moderate of these sites being impacted and thus thunder was
removed for now. However will be monitoring radar trends.
Otherwise a tight northerly pressure gradient develops tonight
which will result in increasing north-northeast winds especially at
KMWH/KCOE by Friday morning. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  77  54  81  55  76 /  10  10  10   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  49  76  50  81  52  75 /  20  10  10  10   0  10
Pullman        49  75  49  78  51  72 /  20  10  10  10   0  10
Lewiston       53  81  54  83  56  78 /  50  20  10  10  10  10
Colville       45  81  47  85  48  80 /  10  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      47  74  44  79  46  73 /  20  10  10   0   0  20
Kellogg        45  73  44  79  46  72 /  50  10  10  10   0  20
Moses Lake     52  83  53  86  52  80 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      54  82  57  86  58  77 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           48  81  53  85  52  79 /  10  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 060420
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
900 PM PDT THU MAY  5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL
BRING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING MARINE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING TO THE COAST AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING TO INTERIOR LOCATIONS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO DROP MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING BACK OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEK WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION YESTERDAY TO
GIVE WAY TO NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 500MB PER THE 00Z
KSLE SOUNDING. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY GENERALLY PRESENT EAST OF
THE CASCADES HAVE RESULTED IN A FEW SHOWERS AND VERY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THIS EVENING. SO FAR THESE
STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED QUICKLY AS THEY MOVE WEST OF THE CREST INTO A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT FOR ANY REMAINING SHOWERS THAT MOVE WESTWARD TOWARDS THE
CASCADE CREST.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SUNSHINE AND 80S
TO INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS IDEA MAY BE ACROSS
FAR EASTERN LANE COUNTY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHERE
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD BRIEFLY PUSH WESTWARD OVER THE
CASCADE CREST...BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MODELS HAVE TRENDED AWAY
FROM THIS IDEA SO ODDS OF ANYTHING OF NOTE...ARE LOOKING LESS AND
LESS LIKELY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE
COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE FAVORABLE UPWELLING
CONDITIONS AND MAY ALLOW SOME PATCHY STRATUS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST TONIGHT AND PERHAPS EXPANDING FARTHER NORTHWARD
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW OF THE SHELTERED BAYS SEEING SOME SHALLOW FOG TOWARDS
SUNRISE EACH MORNING TOO.

A WEAK FRONT STILL APPEARS ON TRACK TO IMPACT NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY BRING
CONSIDERABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY...AND AN INCREASE IN MARINE
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AS SUCH...EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE
SATURDAY AND PUSH INTO THE COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING HOURS. A SURGE OF BREEZY WEST WINDS SHOULD PUSH UP THE
COLUMBIA RIVER AND THROUGH THE COAST RANGE GAPS SATURDAY EVENING.
GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT WESTERLY ALONG THE NORTH
COAST...AREAS OF DRIZZLE SHOULD DEVELOP SATURDAY
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF NEWPORT AND/OR TILLAMOOK. AS THE FRONT
PUSHES INLAND...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOP IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
DESTABILIZATION OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO ALLOW A FEW SHALLOW
SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY...BUT
OVERALL THE AFTERNOON SHOULD END UP DRIER WITH AT LEAST SOME
SUN BREAKS DEVELOPING.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR SENDING THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT INTO THE REGION WILL LAG AND PUSH ACROSS THE INTERIOR
NORTHWEST AS IT DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ONSHORE
FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT SO A FEW SHOWERS COULD REAPPEAR DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR MORE NORTHERN
ZONES. WILL LET MID SHIFT EVALUATE FURTHER. /NEUMAN


&&

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...AS THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
LOCATED AT 50N AND 160W LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKENS...IT WILL
SEND A WEAK FRONT TOWARDS THE PACIFIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL USHER IN A FAIRLY STRONG MARINE PUSH WITH
SOME DRIZZLE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING. THIS MARINE PUSH WILL ALSO
COOL TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTER
TEMPERATURES SOAR OVER 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW TAKES OVER AGAIN BY NEXT TUESDAY WHICH WILL
LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
LITTLE PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK. BENTLEY

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE COAST
WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. MVFR STRATUS MAY RETURN KCVO AND SOUTHWARD INCLUDING KEUG
BETWEEN 11 AND 17Z. NORTH WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20-25KT IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TJ

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY WINDS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL PERSIST BEYOND 10 NM THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY EVENING AND MAINTAIN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. GUSTS WITHIN
10 NM WILL OCCASIONALLY BE AROUND 25 KT...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOONS. WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL CONTINUE CHOPPY CONDITIONS WITH
SQUARED SEAS AT TIMES. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND BRIEFLY WEAKEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY FOR CONTINUED NORTH WINDS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 AM TO
     7 AM PDT FRIDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM TO
     7 PM PDT FRIDAY.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 060346
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
845 PM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY PROVIDING INCREASED SUNSHINE AND A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A TROUGH WILL INDUCE MUCH COOLER ONSHORE FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH SOME DRIZZLE OR SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MOST CLOUDS HAVE GONE FROM WESTERN WASHINGTON EXCEPT
FOR IN THE CASCADES. THERE HAVE BEEN ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST THIS EVENING BUT ANY LIGHTNING APPEARS TO BE EAST OF
THE CREST. WHITE PASS GOT JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH IN A SHOWER.
THE SLOW TREND OF THE LAST DAY OR SO WILL CONTINUE...CLEARING FROM
THE WEST AND AN END TO THE CASCADE SHOWERS.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. SURFACE FLOW NEVER
BECOMES STRONGLY OFFSHORE BUT NORTH FLOW OFF THE WATER WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN TODAY AND 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE OVER 5700M. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW MOST AREAS TO REACH INTO THE 70S EXCEPT THE USUAL LOCALLY
COOLER SPOTS AROUND THE SAN JUANS AND PARTS OF THE STRAIT. THE
CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND SW INTERIOR AWAY FROM THE WATER COULD HIT THE
LOW 80S IN A FEW SPOTS.

DRY WEATHER PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY BUT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. BEST BET IS FOR ANOTHER
WARM DAY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONG MARINE PUSH SATURDAY NIGHT.
MODELS SHOW SPOTTY LIGHT QPF AND IMPLY SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE PUSH LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOCATIONS THAT DO MEASURE
WILL ONLY SEE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS. THE CLOUDS MAY REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY UNDER A DEEP
MARINE LAYER AND STRONG ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S. MERCER/BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIG ADDITIONAL
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS WRN WA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME OF
THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS SHOW A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING AND DIGGING SE
ACROSS THE CASCADES INTO ERN WA. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND COOL MARINE AIR MASS OVER WRN WA INTO MONDAY. SOME
SHOWERS COULD ALSO LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CASCADES WITH SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO 5000 FEET. MOISTURE STILL LOOKS QUITE LIMITED AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. IF THE TROUGH PULLS AWAY
QUICK ENOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PARTIAL BREAK OUT AND HIGHS COULD WARM A COUPLE DEGREES OVER SUNDAY.

LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE ON SOME RIDGING BY TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND YET ANOTHER WARMING
TREND WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO REACH +10F ABOVE AVERAGE. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER WITH THE RIDGE THAN THE GFS/CANADIAN AND SUPPRESSES HEIGHTS BY
THURSDAY. THIS COULD INDUCE SOME ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLING. THE
AVERAGE OF THE MODELS KEEP A STRONGER RIDGE IN PLACE AND IMPLY
CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW POTENTIAL HIGHS BUT WARMER THAN THE
ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST. HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE A GOOD BET...IF NOT SOME
80S MID TO LATE WEEK. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING. THE
FLOW OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS HAS TURNED NORTHERLY. THE AIR MASS
IS GENERALLY DRY EXCEPT FOR MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION OVER THE CASCADES. NORTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES AT LOW LEVELS BUT THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE MARINE
LAYER. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY 12000 FT OR ABOVE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...EXCEPT PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS AT THE COAST EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

KSEA...NORTH WIND 6-12 KT RISING TO 8-16 KT FRIDAY. CEILINGS
SHOULD BE ABOVE 12000 FT. MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...NORTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED. WESTERLY GALES ARE LIKELY IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
SATURDAY EVENING WHEN A STRONG MARINE PUSH WILL OCCUR. MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER
     10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
     SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 060346
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
845 PM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY PROVIDING INCREASED SUNSHINE AND A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A TROUGH WILL INDUCE MUCH COOLER ONSHORE FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH SOME DRIZZLE OR SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MOST CLOUDS HAVE GONE FROM WESTERN WASHINGTON EXCEPT
FOR IN THE CASCADES. THERE HAVE BEEN ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST THIS EVENING BUT ANY LIGHTNING APPEARS TO BE EAST OF
THE CREST. WHITE PASS GOT JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH IN A SHOWER.
THE SLOW TREND OF THE LAST DAY OR SO WILL CONTINUE...CLEARING FROM
THE WEST AND AN END TO THE CASCADE SHOWERS.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. SURFACE FLOW NEVER
BECOMES STRONGLY OFFSHORE BUT NORTH FLOW OFF THE WATER WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN TODAY AND 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE OVER 5700M. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW MOST AREAS TO REACH INTO THE 70S EXCEPT THE USUAL LOCALLY
COOLER SPOTS AROUND THE SAN JUANS AND PARTS OF THE STRAIT. THE
CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND SW INTERIOR AWAY FROM THE WATER COULD HIT THE
LOW 80S IN A FEW SPOTS.

DRY WEATHER PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY BUT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. BEST BET IS FOR ANOTHER
WARM DAY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONG MARINE PUSH SATURDAY NIGHT.
MODELS SHOW SPOTTY LIGHT QPF AND IMPLY SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE PUSH LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOCATIONS THAT DO MEASURE
WILL ONLY SEE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS. THE CLOUDS MAY REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY UNDER A DEEP
MARINE LAYER AND STRONG ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S. MERCER/BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIG ADDITIONAL
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS WRN WA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME OF
THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS SHOW A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING AND DIGGING SE
ACROSS THE CASCADES INTO ERN WA. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND COOL MARINE AIR MASS OVER WRN WA INTO MONDAY. SOME
SHOWERS COULD ALSO LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CASCADES WITH SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO 5000 FEET. MOISTURE STILL LOOKS QUITE LIMITED AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. IF THE TROUGH PULLS AWAY
QUICK ENOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PARTIAL BREAK OUT AND HIGHS COULD WARM A COUPLE DEGREES OVER SUNDAY.

LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE ON SOME RIDGING BY TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND YET ANOTHER WARMING
TREND WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO REACH +10F ABOVE AVERAGE. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER WITH THE RIDGE THAN THE GFS/CANADIAN AND SUPPRESSES HEIGHTS BY
THURSDAY. THIS COULD INDUCE SOME ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLING. THE
AVERAGE OF THE MODELS KEEP A STRONGER RIDGE IN PLACE AND IMPLY
CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW POTENTIAL HIGHS BUT WARMER THAN THE
ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST. HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE A GOOD BET...IF NOT SOME
80S MID TO LATE WEEK. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING. THE
FLOW OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS HAS TURNED NORTHERLY. THE AIR MASS
IS GENERALLY DRY EXCEPT FOR MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION OVER THE CASCADES. NORTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES AT LOW LEVELS BUT THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE MARINE
LAYER. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY 12000 FT OR ABOVE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...EXCEPT PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS AT THE COAST EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

KSEA...NORTH WIND 6-12 KT RISING TO 8-16 KT FRIDAY. CEILINGS
SHOULD BE ABOVE 12000 FT. MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...NORTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED. WESTERLY GALES ARE LIKELY IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
SATURDAY EVENING WHEN A STRONG MARINE PUSH WILL OCCUR. MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER
     10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
     SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KOTX 060100
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
600 PM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible mainly across
southeast Washington into the Idaho Panhandle this evening. Some
storms will be capable of heavy rainfall...hail...and gusty winds.
Improving but breezy conditions will begin on Friday, lasting
through the weekend. More unsettled and cooler weather is expected
next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
LAPS analysis as of 5 pm indicated the best instability over SE
Washington into the Central Panhandle Mountains as well as the
Clearwaters with CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG with very minimal
convective inhibition. However with the low off the Central CA
coast there is no large scale forcing to initiate convection. This
should change this evening however for the Camas Prairie, Lewiston
area, and Blue Mountains as a couple stronger storms currently
producing quite a bit of lightning approach the area...with
outflow winds likely inititating new storms as they approach these
areas. Will have to monitor potential for gusty winds and small
hail as these approach.  Further north...across the Spokane/Coeur
D`Alene area...North Idaho Panhandle...and much of Central and NE
Washington low level northerly winds as well as earlier cloud
cover should help to stabilize the air mass this evening. The HRRR
shows convection falling apart as it tries to make it into these
areas this evening and thus POP`s were lowered for the remainder
of tonight. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Main aviation concern is the potential for thunderstorms
mainly over southeast Washington and the south Idaho Panhandle
this evening which could impact the KLWS/KPUW TAF sites. Thus far
the storms are weakening as they come off the Blue Mountains and
the HRRR shows storms weakening this evening as they approach the
KLWS/KPUW TAF sites. Thus for now confidence is only low to
moderate of these sites being impacted and thus thunder was
removed for now. However will be monitoring radar trends.
Otherwise a tight northerly pressure gradient develops tonight
which will result in increasing north-northeast winds especially at
KMWH/KCOE by Friday morning. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  77  54  81  55  76 /  10  10  10   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  49  76  50  81  52  75 /  20  10  10  10   0  10
Pullman        49  75  49  78  51  72 /  20  10  10  10   0  10
Lewiston       53  81  54  83  56  78 /  40  20  10  10  10  10
Colville       45  81  47  85  48  80 /  10  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      47  74  44  79  46  73 /  20  10  10   0   0  20
Kellogg        45  73  44  79  46  72 /  50  10  10  10   0  20
Moses Lake     52  83  53  86  52  80 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      54  82  57  86  58  77 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           48  81  53  85  52  79 /  10  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 060100
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
600 PM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible mainly across
southeast Washington into the Idaho Panhandle this evening. Some
storms will be capable of heavy rainfall...hail...and gusty winds.
Improving but breezy conditions will begin on Friday, lasting
through the weekend. More unsettled and cooler weather is expected
next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
LAPS analysis as of 5 pm indicated the best instability over SE
Washington into the Central Panhandle Mountains as well as the
Clearwaters with CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG with very minimal
convective inhibition. However with the low off the Central CA
coast there is no large scale forcing to initiate convection. This
should change this evening however for the Camas Prairie, Lewiston
area, and Blue Mountains as a couple stronger storms currently
producing quite a bit of lightning approach the area...with
outflow winds likely inititating new storms as they approach these
areas. Will have to monitor potential for gusty winds and small
hail as these approach.  Further north...across the Spokane/Coeur
D`Alene area...North Idaho Panhandle...and much of Central and NE
Washington low level northerly winds as well as earlier cloud
cover should help to stabilize the air mass this evening. The HRRR
shows convection falling apart as it tries to make it into these
areas this evening and thus POP`s were lowered for the remainder
of tonight. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Main aviation concern is the potential for thunderstorms
mainly over southeast Washington and the south Idaho Panhandle
this evening which could impact the KLWS/KPUW TAF sites. Thus far
the storms are weakening as they come off the Blue Mountains and
the HRRR shows storms weakening this evening as they approach the
KLWS/KPUW TAF sites. Thus for now confidence is only low to
moderate of these sites being impacted and thus thunder was
removed for now. However will be monitoring radar trends.
Otherwise a tight northerly pressure gradient develops tonight
which will result in increasing north-northeast winds especially at
KMWH/KCOE by Friday morning. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  77  54  81  55  76 /  10  10  10   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  49  76  50  81  52  75 /  20  10  10  10   0  10
Pullman        49  75  49  78  51  72 /  20  10  10  10   0  10
Lewiston       53  81  54  83  56  78 /  40  20  10  10  10  10
Colville       45  81  47  85  48  80 /  10  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      47  74  44  79  46  73 /  20  10  10   0   0  20
Kellogg        45  73  44  79  46  72 /  50  10  10  10   0  20
Moses Lake     52  83  53  86  52  80 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      54  82  57  86  58  77 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           48  81  53  85  52  79 /  10  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 052341
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
441 PM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible mainly across
southeast Washington into the Idaho Panhandle this evening. Some
storms will be capable of heavy rainfall...hail...and gusty winds.
Improving but breezy conditions will begin on Friday, lasting
through the weekend. More unsettled and cooler weather is expected
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight: The focus remains on the convective potential this
evening from the Nrn Blue Mtns, through SE Wa, and into the Idaho
Panhandle. Though mid- level heights show an upper level ridge
over this same area, typically not supportive of sustained
organized convection, the majority of model guidance tells a
different story as far as an ingredients- based approach to
thunder. This includes a plume of pwat values in excess of an inch
in southerly steering flow over SE Wa...impinging on a slow-moving
baroclinic zone/frontal boundary. This combined with moisture
convergence closer to the sfc along this boundary should be
sufficient to produce an increasing thunder threat by late
afternoon. As far as convective mode...deep lyr shear of 30-40 kts
coincident with a rough average of SBCAPE values of 500-1000 j/kg
would be sufficient to produce a few organized strong to isolated
severe thunderstorms near and along the above mentioned boundary.
Though model guidance dew pt temps are initializing ok with
current sfc obs, typically a major player as far as SBCAPE goes,
there`s also some inhibition to overcome that may has so far
capped the sfc. However, given that the position of the boundary
is in the vcnty of elevated terrain, which includes the Wallowa
mtns of NE Oregon and the Blue mtns of SE Wa, which model guidance
shows to be very close to the best chance of sfc heating, it
seems reasonable to expect convective initiation over these
mountains into this evening. Sky cover will play a major role for
sfc heating, and we still have less confidence that these areas
will see full insolation based on the latest satellite loops. The
main threat will be hail and very gusty winds if and when these
srn storms develop. The current showers/thunder over NE Wa should
remain steady state until dissipation early evening. bz

Friday through Sunday evening...Cold front moves through and leaves
a weak positively tilted trof or even somewhat more of a weak col or
saddle point across Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho. The
result of having such a feature in place for Friday will be
generally a clear and dry forecast with robust brisk northeast wind
blowing across Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho with perhaps
the exception of a small chance of thunderstorms near the Blue
Mountains up into extreme southern portions of Shoshone County,
Idaho Camas Prairie and the Lewiston/Clarkston area . The saddle
point or col drifts to the southeast into Saturday which allows the
dry forecast to extend through early Sunday. Later on Sunday a cold
trof drops down in a cool northwest to southeast trajectory and
further pushes the col/saddle point away to the southeast. This will
allow for winds to shift to the southwest to northwest and increase
and be a bit gusty in addition to some mention of spotty showers,
primarily over the higher terrain of Northeast Washington and the
Idaho Panhandle. /Pelatti

Sunday night through Thursday...An upper level trough will drop
south out of British Columbia and a period of cool and unsettled
weather will commence. Models want to close off a low pressure
center at the base of the trough and track it southeast across the
Inland Northwest. This will place the eastern half of the forecast
area in the favored location for showers for Sunday night through
Monday evening. Cannot rule out a few afternoon thunderstorms if
there is some breaks in the cloud cover over central WA. This looks
to be a rather cold trough so confidence is not high enough to place
TS in the forecast at this time. Expect much cooler temperatures on
Monday compared to Sunday. Once the trough moves east, the region
will be on a warming and drying trend. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Main aviation concern is the potential for thunderstorms
mainly over southeast Washington and the south Idaho Panhandle
this evening which could impact the KLWS/KPUW TAF sites. Thus far
the storms are weakening as they come off the Blue Mountains and
the HRRR shows storms weakening this evening as they approach the
KLWS/KPUW TAF sites. Thus for now confidence is only low to
moderate of these sites being impacted and thus thunder was
removed for now. However will be monitoring radar trends.
Otherwise a tight northerly pressure gradient develops tonight
which will result in increasing north-northeast winds especially at
KMWH/KCOE by Friday morning. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  77  54  81  55  76 /  20  10  10   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  49  76  50  81  52  75 /  20  10  10  10   0  10
Pullman        49  75  49  78  51  72 /  20  10  10  10   0  10
Lewiston       53  81  54  83  56  78 /  30  20  10  10  10  10
Colville       45  81  47  85  48  80 /  20  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      47  74  44  79  46  73 /  30  10  10   0   0  20
Kellogg        45  73  44  79  46  72 /  30  10  10  10   0  20
Moses Lake     52  83  53  86  52  80 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      54  82  57  86  58  77 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           48  81  53  85  52  79 /  10  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 052206 AAA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT THU MAY 5 2016...CORRECTED

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY PROVIDING INCREASED SUNSHINE AND A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A TROUGH WILL INDUCE MUCH COOLER ONSHORE FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH SOME DRIZZLE OR SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
DRY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RESIDUAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS LEFT OVER FROM THE SPLIT
UPPER TROUGH WILL CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING. ANY RESIDUAL SPOTTY
SHOWERS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST WILL END AFTER SUNSET. MODELS SHOW
THE FLOW TURNING MORE EASTERLY ABOVE 850 MB USHERING IN SOME DRIER
AIR LATER TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STAY NORTHERLY BUT BEGIN
TO WEAKEN FRIDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEAST OVER SRN
B.C. AND WA.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND THERMALLY INDUCED
LOW PRESSURE BRIEFLY SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST. THE FLOW NEVER BECOMES
STRONGLY OFFSHORE BUT NORTH FLOW OFF THE WATER WILL BE LIGHTER THAN
TODAY AND 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE OVER 5700M. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOST
AREAS TO REACH INTO THE 70S EXCEPT THE USUAL LOCALLY COOLER SPOTS
AROUND THE SAN JUANS AND PARTS OF THE STRAIT. THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS
AND SW INTERIOR AWAY FROM THE WATER COULD HIT THE LOW 80S IN A FEW
SPOTS.

DRY WEATHER PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY BUT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN
TOTAL AGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE ONSHORE PUSH WILL DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. THE CANADIAN/NAM HAVE GENERALLY BEEN LATER WITH THE
PUSH AFTER MAX TEMPS OCCUR. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT BUT
ARE GENERALLY FASTER DEVELOPING A STRONG ONSHORE PUSH IN THE
AFTERNOON HINDERING POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. IT SEEMS REASONABLE
THE COAST WILL BE COOLER WHERE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE FIRST. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES FOR THE INTERIOR ARE STILL A COMPROMISE AND SHOW LITTLE
CHANGE OVER FRIDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES. IF THE PUSH HOLDS OFF...MORE
WIDESPREAD LOW 80S ARE POSSIBLE BUT IT COULD GO THE OTHER WAY AS
WELL.

THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BOTH TRENDED DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH SUNDAY. BOTH
MODELS SHOW SPOTTY LIGHT QPF AND IMPLY SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE PUSH LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WENT AHEAD AND PUT IN SOME
LOW CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE RECENT MODEL TRENDS SHOWING MORE QPF.
LOCATIONS THAT DO MEASURE WILL ONLY SEE VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS. THE CLOUDS MAY
HOLD IN THROUGH THE DAY UNDER A DEEP MARINE LAYER AND STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW. HIGHS WERE TRENDED COOLER FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S FOR HIGHS IF IT DOES REMAIN CLOUDY.

.LONG TERM...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIG ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
ACROSS WRN WA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME OF THE STRONGER
SOLUTIONS SHOW A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING AND DIGGING SE ACROSS THE
CASCADES INTO ERN WA. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL
MARINE AIR MASS OVER WRN WA INTO MONDAY. SOME SHOWERS COULD ALSO
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CASCADES WITH SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
5000 FEET. MOISTURE STILL LOOKS QUITE LIMITED AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. IF THE TROUGH PULLS AWAY QUICK ENOUGH
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR PARTIAL BREAK
OUT AND HIGHS COULD WARM A COUPLE DEGREES OVER SUNDAY.

LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE ON SOME RIDGING BY TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND YET ANOTHER WARMING
TREND WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO REACH +10F ABOVE AVERAGE. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER WITH THE RIDGE THAN THE GFS/CANADIAN AND SUPPRESSES HEIGHTS BY
THURSDAY. THIS COULD INDUCE SOME ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLING. THE
AVERAGE OF THE MODELS KEEP A STRONGER RIDGE IN PLACE AND IMPLY
CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW POTENTIAL HIGHS BUT WARMER THAN THE
ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST. HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE A GOOD BET...IF NOT SOME
80S MID TO LATE WEEK. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS WESTERN WA THIS AFTERNOON
EXCEPT OVER THE CASCADES WHERE THERE IS STILL A LITTLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR BKN CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THEN CLEARING IS LIKELY THERE AS WELL. THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE REGION WILL DISSIPATE AND THERE WILL BE UPPER RIDGING OVER
WRN WA FRIDAY.


KSEA...MOSTLY FAIR SKIES FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A NLY BREEZE.


&&

.MARINE...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
AND LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT THAT DID NOT HAPPEN TODAY. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WERE EVEN A LITTLE BELOW WHERE THEY
WERE YESTERDAY...SO I DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR TODAY.

ON FRIDAY...THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THAT THERE SHOULD BE A PRETTY
BRISK NW WIND DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR FRI AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THE 1KM WRFGFS SHOWS SOLID 25KT WINDS SPREADING DOWN
THRU ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS...STARTING MIDDAY IN THE NORTHWEST
AND MOVING DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTH WA COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON FRI.
THE SAME THING SHOULD HAPPEN ON SATURDAY...AND THEN A WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVING INTO B.C. SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL TRIGGER A STRONG
PUSH OF MARINE AIR WITH WLY GALES IN THE STRAIT SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
     EVENING.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 052202 AAA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY PROVIDING INCREASED SUNSHINE AND A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A TROUGH WILL INDUCE MUCH COOLER ONSHORE FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH SOME DRIZZLE OR SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
DRY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RESIDUAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS LEFT OVER FROM THE SPLIT
UPPER TROUGH WILL CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING. ANY RESIDUAL SPOTTY
SHOWERS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST WILL END AFTER SUNSET. MODELS SHOW
THE FLOW TURNING MORE EASTERLY ABOVE 850 MB USHERING IN SOME DRIER
AIR LATER TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STAY NORTHERLY BUT BEGIN
TO WEAKEN FRIDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEAST OVER SRN
B.C. AND WA.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND THERMALLY INDUCED
LOW PRESSURE BRIEFLY SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST. THE FLOW NEVER BECOMES
STRONGLY OFFSHORE BUT NORTH FLOW OFF THE WATER WILL BE LIGHTER THAN
TODAY AND 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE OVER 5700M. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOST
AREAS TO REACH INTO THE 70S EXCEPT THE USUAL LOCALLY COOLER SPOTS
AROUND THE SAN JUANS AND PARTS OF THE STRAIT. THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS
AND SW INTERIOR AWAY FROM THE WATER COULD HIT THE LOW 80S IN A FEW
SPOTS.

DRY WEATHER PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY BUT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN
TOTAL AGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE ONSHORE PUSH WILL DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. THE CANADIAN/NAM HAVE GENERALLY BEEN LATER WITH THE
PUSH AFTER MAX TEMPS OCCUR. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT BUT
ARE GENERALLY FASTER DEVELOPING A STRONG ONSHORE PUSH IN THE
AFTERNOON HINDERING POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. IT SEEMS REASONABLE
THE COAST WILL BE COOLER WHERE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE FIRST. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES FOR THE INTERIOR ARE STILL A COMPROMISE AND SHOW LITTLE
CHANGE OVER FRIDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES. IF THE PUSH HOLDS OFF...MORE
WIDESPREAD LOW 80S ARE POSSIBLE BUT IT COULD GO THE OTHER WAS AS
WELL.

THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BOTH TRENDED DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH SUNDAY. BOTH
MODELS SHOW SPOTTY LIGHT QPF AND IMPLY SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE PUSH LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WENT AHEAD AND PUT IN SOME
LOW CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE RECENT MODEL TRENDS SHOWING MORE QPF.
LOCATIONS THAT DO MEASURE WILL ONLY SEE VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS. THE CLOUDS MAY
HOLD IN THROUGH THE DAY UNDER A DEEP MARINE LAYER AND STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW. HIGHS WERE TRENDED COOLER FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S FOR HIGHS IF IT DOES REMAIN CLOUDY.

.LONG TERM...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIG ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
ACROSS WRN WA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME OF THE STRONGER
SOLUTIONS SHOW A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING AND DIGGING SE ACROSS THE
CASCADES INTO ERN WA. SHOULD SHOULD MAINTAIN A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
COOL MARINE AIR MASS OVER WRN WA INTO MONDAY. SOME SHOWERS COULD
ALSO LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CASCADES WITH SNOW LEVELS DOWN
TO 5000 FEET. MOISTURE STILL LOOKS QUITE LIMITED AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. IF THE TROUGH PULL AWAY QUICK ENOUGH
DURING THE AFTERNOON THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR PARTIAL BREAK OUT
AND POSSIBLY HIGHS WARMING A COUPLE DEGREES OVER SUNDAY.

LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE ON SOME RIDGING BY TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND YET ANOTHER WARMING
TREND WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO REACH +10F ABOVE AVERAGE. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER WITH THE RIDGE THAN THE GFS/CANADIAN AND SUPPRESSES HEIGHTS BY
THURSDAY. THIS COULD INDUCE SOME ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLING. THE
AVERAGE OF THE MODELS KEEP A STRONGER RIDGE IN PLACE AND IMPLY
CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW POTENTIAL HIGHS BUT WARMER THAN THE
ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST. HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE A GOOD BET...IF NOT SOME
80S MID TO LATE WEEK. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS WESTERN WA THIS AFTERNOON
EXCEPT OVER THE CASCADES WHERE THERE IS STILL A LITTLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR BKN CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THEN CLEARING IS LIKELY THERE AS WELL. THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE REGION WILL DISSIPATE AND THERE WILL BE UPPER RIDGING OVER
WRN WA FRIDAY.


KSEA...MOSTLY FAIR SKIES FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A NLY BREEZE.


&&

.MARINE...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
AND LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT THAT DID NOT HAPPEN TODAY. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WERE EVEN A LITTLE BELOW WHERE THEY
WERE YESTERDAY...SO I DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR TODAY.

ON FRIDAY...THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THAT THERE SHOULD BE A PRETTY
BRISK NW WIND DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR FRI AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THE 1KM WRFGFS SHOWS SOLID 25KT WINDS SPREADING DOWN
THRU ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS...STARTING MIDDAY IN THE NORTHWEST
AND MOVING DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTH WA COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON FRI.
THE SAME THING SHOULD HAPPEN ON SATURDAY...AND THEN A WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVING INTO B.C. SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL TRIGGER A STRONG
PUSH OF MARINE AIR WITH WLY GALES IN THE STRAIT SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
     EVENING.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KPQR 052140 RRA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
229 PM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY CONFINED TO THE LINN
COUNTY CASCADES. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION
WILL BRING A RETURN TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY INCREASE MARINE CLOUDS
AND COOL TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...STRATUS DECK CLEARED OUT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM SOUTHERN OREGON CONVECTION
HAS MOVED OVER THE AREA AND KEPT AT LEAST FILTERED SUN FOR AREAS EAST
OF THE COASTAL RANGE. SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE CASCADES WILL BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. GIVEN VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW...EXPECT MAJORITY
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE CASCADES
WITH A FEW DRIFTING INTO THE FOOTHILLS.

GRADUAL CLEARING WILL CONTINUE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
MENTION FOR THE LINN COUNTY CASCADES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A FEW STORMS MAY SNEAK INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
OTHERWISE...FAIR...WARM WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND.  BENTLEY

&&

.LONG TERM...AS THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 50N AND 160W LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKENS...IT WILL SEND A WEAK FRONT TOWARDS THE
PACIFIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL USHER
IN A FAIRLY STRONG MARINE PUSH WITH SOME DRIZZLE EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS MARINE PUSH WILL ALSO COOL TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTER TEMPERATURES SOAR OVER 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW TAKES OVER AGAIN
BY NEXT TUESDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK.  BENTLEY

&&

.AVIATION...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS THE FAR SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY
WHERE SOME STUBBORN HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS PERSIST...WHICH
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS MAY RETURN TO
THE CENTRAL COAST AFTER 04Z THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH IN THAT SCENARIO AS MODELS NOW INDICATE HIGHEST BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS ON THE SW OREGON COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL MARINE PATTERN FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
OVER THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT AND INNER WATERS TIL 11PM. WINDS
WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY TO THE 15-20 KT RANGE...THEN INCREASE TO
AROUND 20-25 KT FRIDAY EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NW SAT NIGHT
AND SUN. THIS TROUGH WILL INDUCE A FAIRLY STRONG MARINE SURGE WITH
15 TO 25 KT NW WINDS.

THE GENERAL SEA STATE CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE WIND-
WAVE COMPONENT. SHORT PERIODS FROM THE FRESH SWELL ARE LEADING TO
CHOPPY SEAS THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. TW

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 AM TO
     7 AM PDT FRIDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 052140 RRA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
229 PM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY CONFINED TO THE LINN
COUNTY CASCADES. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION
WILL BRING A RETURN TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY INCREASE MARINE CLOUDS
AND COOL TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...STRATUS DECK CLEARED OUT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM SOUTHERN OREGON CONVECTION
HAS MOVED OVER THE AREA AND KEPT AT LEAST FILTERED SUN FOR AREAS EAST
OF THE COASTAL RANGE. SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE CASCADES WILL BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. GIVEN VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW...EXPECT MAJORITY
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE CASCADES
WITH A FEW DRIFTING INTO THE FOOTHILLS.

GRADUAL CLEARING WILL CONTINUE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
MENTION FOR THE LINN COUNTY CASCADES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A FEW STORMS MAY SNEAK INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
OTHERWISE...FAIR...WARM WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND.  BENTLEY

&&

.LONG TERM...AS THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 50N AND 160W LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKENS...IT WILL SEND A WEAK FRONT TOWARDS THE
PACIFIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL USHER
IN A FAIRLY STRONG MARINE PUSH WITH SOME DRIZZLE EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS MARINE PUSH WILL ALSO COOL TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTER TEMPERATURES SOAR OVER 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW TAKES OVER AGAIN
BY NEXT TUESDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK.  BENTLEY

&&

.AVIATION...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS THE FAR SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY
WHERE SOME STUBBORN HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS PERSIST...WHICH
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS MAY RETURN TO
THE CENTRAL COAST AFTER 04Z THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH IN THAT SCENARIO AS MODELS NOW INDICATE HIGHEST BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS ON THE SW OREGON COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL MARINE PATTERN FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
OVER THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT AND INNER WATERS TIL 11PM. WINDS
WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY TO THE 15-20 KT RANGE...THEN INCREASE TO
AROUND 20-25 KT FRIDAY EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NW SAT NIGHT
AND SUN. THIS TROUGH WILL INDUCE A FAIRLY STRONG MARINE SURGE WITH
15 TO 25 KT NW WINDS.

THE GENERAL SEA STATE CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE WIND-
WAVE COMPONENT. SHORT PERIODS FROM THE FRESH SWELL ARE LEADING TO
CHOPPY SEAS THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. TW

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 AM TO
     7 AM PDT FRIDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 052120
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
220 PM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the
region this evening. Some storms will be capable of heavy
rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy conditions
will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend. More unsettled
and cooler weather is expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight: The focus remains on the convective potential this
evening from the Nrn Blue Mtns, through SE Wa, and into the Idaho
Panhandle. Though mid- level heights show an upper level ridge
over this same area, typically not supportive of sustained
organized convection, the majority of model guidance tells a
different story as far as an ingredients- based approach to
thunder. This includes a plume of pwat values in excess of an inch
in southerly steering flow over SE Wa...impinging on a slow-moving
baroclinic zone/frontal boundary. This combined with moisture
convergence closer to the sfc along this boundary should be
sufficient to produce an increasing thunder threat by late
afternoon. As far as convective mode...deep lyr shear of 30-40 kts
coincident with a rough average of SBCAPE values of 500-1000 j/kg
would be sufficient to produce a few organized strong to isolated
severe thunderstorms near and along the above mentioned boundary.
Though model guidance dew pt temps are initializing ok with
current sfc obs, typically a major player as far as SBCAPE goes,
there`s also some inhibition to overcome that may has so far
capped the sfc. However, given that the position of the boundary
is in the vcnty of elevated terrain, which includes the Wallowa
mtns of NE Oregon and the Blue mtns of SE Wa, which model guidance
shows to be very close to the best chance of sfc heating, it
seems reasonable to expect convective initiation over these
mountains into this evening. Sky cover will play a major role for
sfc heating, and we still have less confidence that these areas
will see full insolation based on the latest satellite loops. The
main threat will be hail and very gusty winds if and when these
srn storms develop. The current showers/thunder over NE Wa should
remain steady state until dissipation early evening. bz

Friday through Sunday evening...Cold front moves through and leaves
a weak positively tilted trof or even somewhat more of a weak col or
saddle point across Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho. The
result of having such a feature in place for Friday will be
generally a clear and dry forecast with robust brisk northeast wind
blowing across Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho with perhaps
the exception of a small chance of thunderstorms near the Blue
Mountains up into extreme southern portions of Shoshone County,
Idaho Camas Prairie and the Lewiston/Clarkston area . The saddle
point or col drifts to the southeast into Saturday which allows the
dry forecast to extend through early Sunday. Later on Sunday a cold
trof drops down in a cool northwest to southeast trajectory and
further pushes the col/saddle point away to the southeast. This will
allow for winds to shift to the southwest to northwest and increase
and be a bit gusty in addition to some mention of spotty showers,
primarily over the higher terrain of Northeast Washington and the
Idaho Panhandle. /Pelatti

Sunday night through Thursday...An upper level trough will drop
south out of British Columbia and a period of cool and unsettled
weather will commence. Models want to close off a low pressure
center at the base of the trough and track it southeast across the
Inland Northwest. This will place the eastern half of the forecast
area in the favored location for showers for Sunday night through
Monday evening. Cannot rule out a few afternoon thunderstorms if
there is some breaks in the cloud cover over central WA. This looks
to be a rather cold trough so confidence is not high enough to place
TS in the forecast at this time. Expect much cooler temperatures on
Monday compared to Sunday. Once the trough moves east, the region
will be on a warming and drying trend. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The main aviation impacts this morning will be areas of
MVFR stratus between Pullman and Spokane coupled with spotty light
showers littering much of the region. After 20z...the focus will
switch to the thunder potential as the frontal boundary slides
down from the north. Storms will be capable of small hail, gusty
winds, and heavy downpours. Isolated stronger storms capable of of
large hail and damaging winds are a possibility along an axis
stretching from KALW to KMLP and points south btwn 23-03Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  77  54  81  55  76 /  20  10  10   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  49  76  50  81  52  75 /  20  10  10  10   0  10
Pullman        49  75  49  78  51  72 /  20  10  10  10   0  10
Lewiston       53  81  54  83  56  78 /  30  20  10  10  10  10
Colville       45  81  47  85  48  80 /  20  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      47  74  44  79  46  73 /  30  10  10   0   0  20
Kellogg        45  73  44  79  46  72 /  30  10  10  10   0  20
Moses Lake     52  83  53  86  52  80 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      54  82  57  86  58  77 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           48  81  53  85  52  79 /  10  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 051739
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1039 AM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the
region today. Some storms will be capable of heavy
rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy conditions
will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend. More unsettled
and cooler weather is expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
We made no large changes to the fcst... with the focus still
being on the convective potential this afternoon from the Nrn Blue
Mtns, through southeast Wa, and into the Idaho Panhandle. Though
mid- level heights show an upper level ridge over this same area,
typically not supportive of sustained organized convection, the
majority of model guidance tells a different story as far as an
ingredients- based approach to thunder. This includes a plume of
pwat values in excess of an inch in southerly steering flow over
SE Wa...impinging on a nearly stnry baroclinic zone/frontal
boundary from NE Oregon to the Cntrl Id Panhandle. This combined
with moisture convergence closer to the sfc along this boundary
should be sufficient to produce an increasing thunder threat by
late afternoon. As far as convective mode...deep lyr shear of
30-40 kts coincident with a rough average of SBCAPE values of 500-1000
j/kg would be sufficient to produce a few organized strong to
isolated severe thunderstorms near and along the above mentioned
boundary. Though model guidance dew pt temps are initializing ok
with current sfc obs, typically a major player as far as SBCAPE
goes, there`s also some inhibition to overcome that may briefly
cap the sfc. However, given that the position of the boundary is
in the vcnty of elevated terrain, which includes the Wallowa mtns
of NE Oregon and the Blue mtns of SE Wa, which model guidance
shows to be very close to the best chance of sfc heating later
today, it seems reasonable to expect convective initiation over
these mountains. Sky cover will play a major role for sfc heating,
and we do have a bit less confidence as far as sky cover. The
latest visibly satellite loop does show only scattered clouds
attm over the target area. The main threat will be hail and very
gusty winds. See our latest wx story online. Stay tuned... bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The main aviation impacts this morning will be areas of
MVFR stratus between Pullman and Spokane coupled with spotty light
showers littering much of the region. After 20z...the focus will
switch to the thunder potential as the frontal boundary slides
down from the north. Storms will be capable of small hail, gusty
winds, and heavy downpours. Isolated stronger storms capable of of
large hail and damaging winds are a possibility along an axis
stretching from KALW to KMLP and points south btwn 23-03Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        73  54  77  54  81  55 /  50  20  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  73  49  76  50  81  52 /  50  20  10  10  10   0
Pullman        71  49  75  49  78  51 /  50  20  10  10  10   0
Lewiston       76  53  81  54  83  56 /  50  30  20  10  10  10
Colville       73  45  81  47  85  48 /  60  20  10  10   0   0
Sandpoint      71  47  74  44  79  46 /  60  30  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        73  45  73  44  79  46 /  60  30  10  10  10   0
Moses Lake     76  52  83  53  86  52 /  30  20  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      75  54  82  57  86  58 /  40  20  10   0   0   0
Omak           73  48  81  53  85  52 /  30  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 051739
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1039 AM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the
region today. Some storms will be capable of heavy
rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy conditions
will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend. More unsettled
and cooler weather is expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
We made no large changes to the fcst... with the focus still
being on the convective potential this afternoon from the Nrn Blue
Mtns, through southeast Wa, and into the Idaho Panhandle. Though
mid- level heights show an upper level ridge over this same area,
typically not supportive of sustained organized convection, the
majority of model guidance tells a different story as far as an
ingredients- based approach to thunder. This includes a plume of
pwat values in excess of an inch in southerly steering flow over
SE Wa...impinging on a nearly stnry baroclinic zone/frontal
boundary from NE Oregon to the Cntrl Id Panhandle. This combined
with moisture convergence closer to the sfc along this boundary
should be sufficient to produce an increasing thunder threat by
late afternoon. As far as convective mode...deep lyr shear of
30-40 kts coincident with a rough average of SBCAPE values of 500-1000
j/kg would be sufficient to produce a few organized strong to
isolated severe thunderstorms near and along the above mentioned
boundary. Though model guidance dew pt temps are initializing ok
with current sfc obs, typically a major player as far as SBCAPE
goes, there`s also some inhibition to overcome that may briefly
cap the sfc. However, given that the position of the boundary is
in the vcnty of elevated terrain, which includes the Wallowa mtns
of NE Oregon and the Blue mtns of SE Wa, which model guidance
shows to be very close to the best chance of sfc heating later
today, it seems reasonable to expect convective initiation over
these mountains. Sky cover will play a major role for sfc heating,
and we do have a bit less confidence as far as sky cover. The
latest visibly satellite loop does show only scattered clouds
attm over the target area. The main threat will be hail and very
gusty winds. See our latest wx story online. Stay tuned... bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The main aviation impacts this morning will be areas of
MVFR stratus between Pullman and Spokane coupled with spotty light
showers littering much of the region. After 20z...the focus will
switch to the thunder potential as the frontal boundary slides
down from the north. Storms will be capable of small hail, gusty
winds, and heavy downpours. Isolated stronger storms capable of of
large hail and damaging winds are a possibility along an axis
stretching from KALW to KMLP and points south btwn 23-03Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        73  54  77  54  81  55 /  50  20  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  73  49  76  50  81  52 /  50  20  10  10  10   0
Pullman        71  49  75  49  78  51 /  50  20  10  10  10   0
Lewiston       76  53  81  54  83  56 /  50  30  20  10  10  10
Colville       73  45  81  47  85  48 /  60  20  10  10   0   0
Sandpoint      71  47  74  44  79  46 /  60  30  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        73  45  73  44  79  46 /  60  30  10  10  10   0
Moses Lake     76  52  83  53  86  52 /  30  20  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      75  54  82  57  86  58 /  40  20  10   0   0   0
Omak           73  48  81  53  85  52 /  30  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 051658
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
958 AM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the
region today. Some storms will be capable of heavy
rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy conditions
will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend. More unsettled
and cooler weather is expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

We made no large changes to the fcst... with the focus still
being on the convective potential this afternoon from the Nrn Blue
Mtns, through southeast Wa, and into the Idaho Panhandle. Though
mid- level heights show an upper level ridge over this same area,
typically not supportive of sustained organized convection, the
majority of model guidance tells a different story as far as an
ingredients- based approach to thunder. This includes a plume of
pwat values in excess of an inch in southerly steering flow over
SE Wa...impinging on a nearly stnry baroclinic zone/frontal
boundary from NE Oregon to the Cntrl Id Panhandle. This combined
with moisture convergence closer to the sfc along this boundary
should be sufficient to produce an increasing thunder threat by
late afternoon. As far as convective mode...deep lyr shear of
30-40 kts coincident with a rough average of SBCAPE values of 500-1000
j/kg would be sufficient to produce a few organized strong to
isolated severe thunderstorms near and along the above mentioned
boundary. Though model guidance dew pt temps are initializing ok
with current sfc obs, typically a major player as far as SBCAPE
goes, there`s also some inhibition to overcome that may briefly
cap the sfc. However, given that the position of the boundary is
in the vcnty of elevated terrain, which includes the Wallowa mtns
of NE Oregon and the Blue mtns of SE Wa, which model guidance
shows to be very close to the best chance of sfc heating later
today, it seems reasonable to expect convective initiation over
these mountains. Sky cover will play a major role for sfc heating,
and we do have a bit less confidence as far as sky cover. The
latest visibly satellite loop does show only scattered clouds
attm over the target area. The main threat will be hail and very
gusty winds. See our latest wx story online. Stay tuned... bz

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: The next 12 hours have the potential to be active across
the region as a cold front interacts with an unstable air mass in
place. The main aviation impacts this morning will be areas of
MVFR stratus between Pullman and Spokane coupled with spotty light
showers littering much of the region. After 20z...focus will
switch to the t-storm potential as the frontal boundary slides
down from the north. Storms will be capable of small hail, gusty
winds, and heavy downpours. Isolated stronger storms capable of
of large hail and damaging winds are a possibility along an axis
stretching from KALW to KMLP and points south btwn 23-03Z. /sb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        73  54  77  54  81  55 /  50  20  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  73  49  76  50  81  52 /  50  20  10  10  10   0
Pullman        71  49  75  49  78  51 /  50  20  10  10  10   0
Lewiston       76  53  81  54  83  56 /  50  30  20  10  10  10
Colville       73  45  81  47  85  48 /  60  20  10  10   0   0
Sandpoint      71  47  74  44  79  46 /  60  30  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        73  45  73  44  79  46 /  60  30  10  10  10   0
Moses Lake     76  52  83  53  86  52 /  30  20  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      75  54  82  57  86  58 /  40  20  10   0   0   0
Omak           73  48  81  53  85  52 /  60  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 051658
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
958 AM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the
region today. Some storms will be capable of heavy
rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy conditions
will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend. More unsettled
and cooler weather is expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

We made no large changes to the fcst... with the focus still
being on the convective potential this afternoon from the Nrn Blue
Mtns, through southeast Wa, and into the Idaho Panhandle. Though
mid- level heights show an upper level ridge over this same area,
typically not supportive of sustained organized convection, the
majority of model guidance tells a different story as far as an
ingredients- based approach to thunder. This includes a plume of
pwat values in excess of an inch in southerly steering flow over
SE Wa...impinging on a nearly stnry baroclinic zone/frontal
boundary from NE Oregon to the Cntrl Id Panhandle. This combined
with moisture convergence closer to the sfc along this boundary
should be sufficient to produce an increasing thunder threat by
late afternoon. As far as convective mode...deep lyr shear of
30-40 kts coincident with a rough average of SBCAPE values of 500-1000
j/kg would be sufficient to produce a few organized strong to
isolated severe thunderstorms near and along the above mentioned
boundary. Though model guidance dew pt temps are initializing ok
with current sfc obs, typically a major player as far as SBCAPE
goes, there`s also some inhibition to overcome that may briefly
cap the sfc. However, given that the position of the boundary is
in the vcnty of elevated terrain, which includes the Wallowa mtns
of NE Oregon and the Blue mtns of SE Wa, which model guidance
shows to be very close to the best chance of sfc heating later
today, it seems reasonable to expect convective initiation over
these mountains. Sky cover will play a major role for sfc heating,
and we do have a bit less confidence as far as sky cover. The
latest visibly satellite loop does show only scattered clouds
attm over the target area. The main threat will be hail and very
gusty winds. See our latest wx story online. Stay tuned... bz

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: The next 12 hours have the potential to be active across
the region as a cold front interacts with an unstable air mass in
place. The main aviation impacts this morning will be areas of
MVFR stratus between Pullman and Spokane coupled with spotty light
showers littering much of the region. After 20z...focus will
switch to the t-storm potential as the frontal boundary slides
down from the north. Storms will be capable of small hail, gusty
winds, and heavy downpours. Isolated stronger storms capable of
of large hail and damaging winds are a possibility along an axis
stretching from KALW to KMLP and points south btwn 23-03Z. /sb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        73  54  77  54  81  55 /  50  20  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  73  49  76  50  81  52 /  50  20  10  10  10   0
Pullman        71  49  75  49  78  51 /  50  20  10  10  10   0
Lewiston       76  53  81  54  83  56 /  50  30  20  10  10  10
Colville       73  45  81  47  85  48 /  60  20  10  10   0   0
Sandpoint      71  47  74  44  79  46 /  60  30  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        73  45  73  44  79  46 /  60  30  10  10  10   0
Moses Lake     76  52  83  53  86  52 /  30  20  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      75  54  82  57  86  58 /  40  20  10   0   0   0
Omak           73  48  81  53  85  52 /  60  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 051603 RRA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
900 AM PDT THU MAY  5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...THE COOL AND SHOWERY PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION WILL GIVE
WAY TO DECREASING CLOUDS...WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE CASCADES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BRING A
RETURN TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY
INCREASE MARINE CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...NO CHANGES IN FORECASTS AS TRENDS STILL LOOK ON TRACK
THIS AM. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING N JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NW
COAST. S FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NW WED...BUT BY THIS
MORNING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WAS WELL E OF THE CASCADES AND DOWN IN
NORTHERN CA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE UPPER LOW
FURTHER CUTTING OFF AND MOVING TO THE DESERT SW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE W TO THE N OF THE
LOW...ACROSS WA. THIS BACKS THE MID AND UPPER FLOW TO THE SE THIS
AFTERNOON...TO THE E BY FRI AND NE BY SUN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
BEST INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY OVER THE CASCADES...
WHILE FURTHER W WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS APPEARS LIKELY TO LIMIT
CONVECTIVE PROSPECTS TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE CASCADES.

AIR MASS IN GENERAL EXPECTED TO STABILIZE FRI AND SAT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER WA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE DIMINISHED FRI...AND LIMITED MAINLY TO THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES
AND FOOTHILLS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SAT AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONSHORE FROM THE NW...BUT AFTER THE EXTENSIVE
MARINE CLOUDS THIS MORNING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO GREATLY LIMIT
THE EXTENT AND COVERAGE OF MARINE CLOUDS FRI AND SAT. SUBSIDENCE
WILL ALSO RESULT IN A PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR MASS DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH MODEL H8 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND 14 DEG C INLAND BY
FRI AND SAT. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE WARMEST WEATHER INLAND
WHERE HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE AROUND 80 IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...00Z GFS AND EC MODEL RUNS BOTH INDICATE A FAIRLY STRONG
NW MARINE PUSH SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS TO THE NW
AND A SHORTWAVE DIGS ACROSS SUN. WITH THE INFLUX OF COOLER MARINE AIR
AND THE SHORTWAVE...WILL ALSO ADD IN A CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE N LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION...WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES AND STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP A MORE JUNE
LIKE PATTERN...WITH LATE NIGHT/AM CLOUDS THEN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. MAIN EFFECT WILL BE INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPS SUN AND MON. COASTAL AREAS MAY NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOONS. TUE AND WED WILL SEE WEAKENING
ONSHORE FLOW WITH WARMING AND DRY WEATHER.
&&


.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A MIX
OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LIFT TO PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z THIS
MORNING. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS TO RETURN TO THE COAST AFTER
04Z FRI.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH-END MVFR AT THE TERMINAL AS OF
16Z. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THEN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL MARINE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND CONTINUES FOR THE
OUTER MARINE ZONES. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT INCREASE AGAIN TO 25 KT THIS
EVENING INTO FRI MORNING. SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
INNER WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE SOME 25 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO FRI
MORNING...SO WILL LOOK AT THAT IN MORE DETAIL FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NW SAT
NIGHT AND SUN. THIS TROUGH WILL INDUCE A FAIRLY STRONG MARINE
SURGE...RESULTING IN 15 TO 20 KT WIND SPEEDS.

THE GENERAL SEA STATE CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE WIND-
WAVE COMPONENT. SHORT PERIODS FROM THE FRESH SWELL ARE LEADING TO
CHOPPY SEAS. EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH
06Z FRI. TW/WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
     PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 AM TO
     7 AM PDT FRIDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 051603 RRA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
900 AM PDT THU MAY  5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...THE COOL AND SHOWERY PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION WILL GIVE
WAY TO DECREASING CLOUDS...WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE CASCADES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BRING A
RETURN TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY
INCREASE MARINE CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...NO CHANGES IN FORECASTS AS TRENDS STILL LOOK ON TRACK
THIS AM. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING N JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NW
COAST. S FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NW WED...BUT BY THIS
MORNING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WAS WELL E OF THE CASCADES AND DOWN IN
NORTHERN CA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE UPPER LOW
FURTHER CUTTING OFF AND MOVING TO THE DESERT SW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE W TO THE N OF THE
LOW...ACROSS WA. THIS BACKS THE MID AND UPPER FLOW TO THE SE THIS
AFTERNOON...TO THE E BY FRI AND NE BY SUN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
BEST INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY OVER THE CASCADES...
WHILE FURTHER W WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS APPEARS LIKELY TO LIMIT
CONVECTIVE PROSPECTS TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE CASCADES.

AIR MASS IN GENERAL EXPECTED TO STABILIZE FRI AND SAT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER WA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE DIMINISHED FRI...AND LIMITED MAINLY TO THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES
AND FOOTHILLS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SAT AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONSHORE FROM THE NW...BUT AFTER THE EXTENSIVE
MARINE CLOUDS THIS MORNING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO GREATLY LIMIT
THE EXTENT AND COVERAGE OF MARINE CLOUDS FRI AND SAT. SUBSIDENCE
WILL ALSO RESULT IN A PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR MASS DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH MODEL H8 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND 14 DEG C INLAND BY
FRI AND SAT. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE WARMEST WEATHER INLAND
WHERE HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE AROUND 80 IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...00Z GFS AND EC MODEL RUNS BOTH INDICATE A FAIRLY STRONG
NW MARINE PUSH SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS TO THE NW
AND A SHORTWAVE DIGS ACROSS SUN. WITH THE INFLUX OF COOLER MARINE AIR
AND THE SHORTWAVE...WILL ALSO ADD IN A CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE N LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION...WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES AND STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP A MORE JUNE
LIKE PATTERN...WITH LATE NIGHT/AM CLOUDS THEN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. MAIN EFFECT WILL BE INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPS SUN AND MON. COASTAL AREAS MAY NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOONS. TUE AND WED WILL SEE WEAKENING
ONSHORE FLOW WITH WARMING AND DRY WEATHER.
&&


.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A MIX
OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LIFT TO PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z THIS
MORNING. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS TO RETURN TO THE COAST AFTER
04Z FRI.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH-END MVFR AT THE TERMINAL AS OF
16Z. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THEN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL MARINE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND CONTINUES FOR THE
OUTER MARINE ZONES. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO
AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT INCREASE AGAIN TO 25 KT THIS
EVENING INTO FRI MORNING. SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
INNER WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE SOME 25 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO FRI
MORNING...SO WILL LOOK AT THAT IN MORE DETAIL FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NW SAT
NIGHT AND SUN. THIS TROUGH WILL INDUCE A FAIRLY STRONG MARINE
SURGE...RESULTING IN 15 TO 20 KT WIND SPEEDS.

THE GENERAL SEA STATE CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE WIND-
WAVE COMPONENT. SHORT PERIODS FROM THE FRESH SWELL ARE LEADING TO
CHOPPY SEAS. EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH
06Z FRI. TW/WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
     PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 AM TO
     7 AM PDT FRIDAY.

&&

$$

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THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 051548 AAA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS AND ANY SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE CASCADES. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR
INCREASED SUNSHINE AND A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
TROUGH WILL INDUCE COOLER ONSHORE FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SPLIT UPPER TROUGH OVER WRN
WA WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE BACK EDGE OF MID/HIGH BASED MOISTURE OVER THE INTERIOR OF WRN WA
IS THINNING OUT WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT MOSTLY CLEAR NEAR THE
COAST. SHOWERS HAVE ENDED AND RADAR SHOWS ANY RESIDUAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE CASCADES HAS PUSHED OFF INTO ERN WA. LOW LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY AND HEIGHTS REMAIN SUPPRESSED BUT
IT WILL STILL WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL
PARTIAL SUNSHINE. MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S...NEAR
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MODELS STILL AGREE ON BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND BRIEFLY TURN
OFFSHORE ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM NEARLY +10F DEGREES OVER
THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY JUST INLAND FROM THE WATER. IT WILL REMAIN
DRY AND SUNNY.

SATURDAY REMAINS A BIT TRICKY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION. 00Z/06Z MODELS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER BUT ALSO
A LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY. THE
PROBLEM IS FIGURING OUT HOW QUICKLY THE ONSHORE PUSH DEVELOPS AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. THE MODELS ARE MIXED...SOME SHOWING A PUSH AS EARLY
AS MIDDAY AND OTHER MODELS HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MAX HEATING.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE PUSH...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S. THE FORECAST IS BASICALLY A COMPROMISE BUT WILL NEED
TO SEE HOW THE 12Z MODELS TREND. I SUSPECT THE PUSH WILL A BIT LATER
AND INTERIOR TEMPERATURES COULD RUN WARMER THAN FORECAST. THE TROUGH
ARRIVES BY SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE. WILL LOOK OVER ALL THE 12Z
MODELS INCLUDING THE ECMWF BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE. MERCER

.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL FIND
ITSELF ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
LOW AS IT DROPS DOWN EAST OF THE CASCADES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE THREAT OF PRECIP TO LINGER
INTO MONDAY...BUT GENERALLY ALONG THE CASCADES. ONCE IT PASSES
THROUGH...RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC...INFLUENCING
WESTERN WASHINGTON WEATHER AS EARLY AS MONDAY...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
ALREADY START TO CLIMB UP ONCE MORE. THIS SHOULD SOUND
FAMILIAR...THUS REVEALING THE UPWARD TREND FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SMR

&&

.AVIATION...THERE IS STILL A LITTLE MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY
AS THIS WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION VERY SLOWLY DISSIPATES.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN WA IS REALLY JUST A WEAK EXTENSION
FROM THE MAIN TROUGH WHICH DUG INTO CALIF AND IS NOW A BIG UPPER LOW
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THAT WILL LEAVE WRN WA IN AN AREA OF RIDGING THRU SAT.
THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY DRY WITH THE AREA OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON
THE NORTH COAST THIS MORNING PROBABLY WORKING EAST AND THE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS OVER WA SHIFTING A BIT EAST TODAY.

KSEA...CLOUDS TODAY WILL PROBABLY SCATTER OUT LATER TODAY WITH FAIR
SKIES TONIGHT AND A NLY BREEZE TODAY AND TONIGHT. FRIDAY SHOULD BE
SUNNY WITH A NORTH BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
AND LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MOST DAYS...AND IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS OVER THE INLAND
WATERS SHOULD BE FAIRLY TYPICAL...NW 5-15 RISING TO AS HIGH AS
PERHAPS 20KT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A
STRONG PUSH OF MARINE AIR WITH WLY GALES IN THE STRAIT STARTING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KOTX 051209
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
509 AM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the
region today. Some storms will be capable of heavy
rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy conditions
will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend. More unsettled
and cooler weather is expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE
AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...

Today through Friday: Active weather will continue across the Inland NW
for the next 24-36 hours then look for abrupt drying trend into
Friday as gusty north/northeast winds develop.

A trof of low pressure will migrate into the Wrn US today.  The southern
branch of the low will evolve into a closed low over CA/NV while the
northern branch weakens but ushers a cold front in from the north.
The last 36 hours of southerly flow ahead of the approaching trof
has brought deep moisture into the Inland NW and following last
night`s convective cluster, dewpoints have climbed into the upper
40s to lower 50s. As the region warms this afternoon, the air mass
will become quite unstable leading to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms, some which may be strong. The cold front will push
into the Okanogan Valley early Thursday and continue toward the
south and southeast through the day. The front should make up for
the lack of shortwaves and assist in parcel displacement through
the CIN layer...ultimately resulting in convective towers and mix
of showers and thunderstorms. Drier air will accompany the post
frontal air mass so confidence is moderate that the Okanogan
Valley will be left out of the action following this morning`s
cluster of rain. On the contrary, the boundary will interact with
the instability early afternoon in the East Slopes, Waterville
Plateau, Okanogan Highlands, and Western Basin. This activity will
need to be monitored closely as storm motion will be slowing down
yet PWATS remain around a 0.75". It looks as if the trends in
instability will be on the decline toward the peak heating hours
so we do not anticipate strong storms in these locations but the
possibility for small hail and heavy downpours.

For the remainder of NE WA and N ID, look for scattered light showers
through much of the morning hours followed by the potential for a
lull in the action Thursday morning. The front presses through
during the late afternoon with scattered showers and t-storms
developing. Intensity of these storms carry some uncertainty due
to uncertainty with cloud cover and exactly how much CAPE will be
present as the lift comes through. Small hail and gusty winds will
be possible with any t-storm activity.

Of bigger concern is to the southeast across extreme southeastern WA
and lower ID Panhandle where we find a marginal risk for severe
weather. CAPE values look quite impressive in the late afternoon
with values ranging between 1000-2000 J/kg along and south of a
line from Mullan to Pullman to the Blue Mtns. Clouds could very
well keep these numbers lower and also result in a lull of shower
or t-storm activity through much of the afternoon but when and if
storms develop...they will have the potential to be strong to
locally severe producing large hail and damaging winds along with
heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Some models suggest the
threat will be delayed until after 5PM but cannot rule out
isolated activity sooner which generally leads to lower confidence
on exact timing.

As the weak northern branch shortwave tracks east of the region, the
atmosphere will become drawn to the deep low over CA/NV and gusty
N/NE winds will increase Thursday night and linger into Friday.
Look for an abrupt end to precipitation from north to south
Thursday evening with just a few showers or thunderstorms
lingering around the Camas Prairie and Blue Mtns overnight into
Friday morning. Most of this activity will diminish well before
Friday afternoon.

Winds will be quite gusty Thursday night and Friday, especially
down the Okanogan Valley, Purcell Trench, and across the open
Columbia Basin. Sustained speeds 15-20 mph with gusts 25-40 mph
are a strong possibility however temperatures will already be
rebounding on Friday with highs warming back into the mid 70s. /sb

Friday night through Wednesday...Latest model runs are in fairly
good agreement through the beginning of next week at least. After
some residual showers and possible garden variety thunderstorms
over the Idaho Panhandle Friday evening...the forecast area will
come under the drying influence of a building positively tilted
upper ridge which will keep conditions dry and once again warmer
than normal for Saturday at least. Breezy north to northeast winds
will be the most noticeable weather as dry low level air invades
the region from Canada through the Okanogan Valley and Purcell
trench. Possibly as early as Sunday but certainly by early next
week the weather pattern will become more progressive as a trough
carves out of western Canada producing an initial breezy cold
front Sunday...but with not a lot of moisture...followed by an
increasing chance of showers Monday through Tuesday as the upper
trough settles into the region with a commiserate cooling of
temperatures back toward seasonal normals. This unsettled period
may begin to improve Tuesday night and Wednesday as the next ridge
builds over the region. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: The next 12 hours have the potential to be active across
the region as a cold front interacts with an unstable air mass in
place. The main aviation impacts this morning will be areas of
MVFR stratus between Pullman and Spokane coupled with spotty light
showers littering much of the region. After 20z...focus will
switch to the t-storm potential as the frontal boundary slides
down from the north. Storms will be capable of small hail, gusty
winds, and heavy downpours. Isolated stronger storms capable of
of large hail and damaging winds are a possibility along an axis
stretching frm KALW to KMLP and points south btwn 23-03Z. /sb



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        73  54  77  54  81  55 /  50  20  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  73  49  76  50  81  52 /  60  20  10  10  10   0
Pullman        71  49  75  49  78  51 /  60  20  10  10  10   0
Lewiston       76  53  81  54  83  56 /  60  30  20  10  10  10
Colville       73  45  81  47  85  48 /  60  20  10  10   0   0
Sandpoint      71  47  74  44  79  46 /  60  30  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        73  45  73  44  79  46 /  60  30  10  10  10   0
Moses Lake     76  52  83  53  86  52 /  30  20  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      75  54  82  57  86  58 /  40  20  10   0   0   0
Omak           73  48  81  53  85  52 /  50  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 051209
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
509 AM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the
region today. Some storms will be capable of heavy
rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy conditions
will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend. More unsettled
and cooler weather is expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE
AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...

Today through Friday: Active weather will continue across the Inland NW
for the next 24-36 hours then look for abrupt drying trend into
Friday as gusty north/northeast winds develop.

A trof of low pressure will migrate into the Wrn US today.  The southern
branch of the low will evolve into a closed low over CA/NV while the
northern branch weakens but ushers a cold front in from the north.
The last 36 hours of southerly flow ahead of the approaching trof
has brought deep moisture into the Inland NW and following last
night`s convective cluster, dewpoints have climbed into the upper
40s to lower 50s. As the region warms this afternoon, the air mass
will become quite unstable leading to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms, some which may be strong. The cold front will push
into the Okanogan Valley early Thursday and continue toward the
south and southeast through the day. The front should make up for
the lack of shortwaves and assist in parcel displacement through
the CIN layer...ultimately resulting in convective towers and mix
of showers and thunderstorms. Drier air will accompany the post
frontal air mass so confidence is moderate that the Okanogan
Valley will be left out of the action following this morning`s
cluster of rain. On the contrary, the boundary will interact with
the instability early afternoon in the East Slopes, Waterville
Plateau, Okanogan Highlands, and Western Basin. This activity will
need to be monitored closely as storm motion will be slowing down
yet PWATS remain around a 0.75". It looks as if the trends in
instability will be on the decline toward the peak heating hours
so we do not anticipate strong storms in these locations but the
possibility for small hail and heavy downpours.

For the remainder of NE WA and N ID, look for scattered light showers
through much of the morning hours followed by the potential for a
lull in the action Thursday morning. The front presses through
during the late afternoon with scattered showers and t-storms
developing. Intensity of these storms carry some uncertainty due
to uncertainty with cloud cover and exactly how much CAPE will be
present as the lift comes through. Small hail and gusty winds will
be possible with any t-storm activity.

Of bigger concern is to the southeast across extreme southeastern WA
and lower ID Panhandle where we find a marginal risk for severe
weather. CAPE values look quite impressive in the late afternoon
with values ranging between 1000-2000 J/kg along and south of a
line from Mullan to Pullman to the Blue Mtns. Clouds could very
well keep these numbers lower and also result in a lull of shower
or t-storm activity through much of the afternoon but when and if
storms develop...they will have the potential to be strong to
locally severe producing large hail and damaging winds along with
heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Some models suggest the
threat will be delayed until after 5PM but cannot rule out
isolated activity sooner which generally leads to lower confidence
on exact timing.

As the weak northern branch shortwave tracks east of the region, the
atmosphere will become drawn to the deep low over CA/NV and gusty
N/NE winds will increase Thursday night and linger into Friday.
Look for an abrupt end to precipitation from north to south
Thursday evening with just a few showers or thunderstorms
lingering around the Camas Prairie and Blue Mtns overnight into
Friday morning. Most of this activity will diminish well before
Friday afternoon.

Winds will be quite gusty Thursday night and Friday, especially
down the Okanogan Valley, Purcell Trench, and across the open
Columbia Basin. Sustained speeds 15-20 mph with gusts 25-40 mph
are a strong possibility however temperatures will already be
rebounding on Friday with highs warming back into the mid 70s. /sb

Friday night through Wednesday...Latest model runs are in fairly
good agreement through the beginning of next week at least. After
some residual showers and possible garden variety thunderstorms
over the Idaho Panhandle Friday evening...the forecast area will
come under the drying influence of a building positively tilted
upper ridge which will keep conditions dry and once again warmer
than normal for Saturday at least. Breezy north to northeast winds
will be the most noticeable weather as dry low level air invades
the region from Canada through the Okanogan Valley and Purcell
trench. Possibly as early as Sunday but certainly by early next
week the weather pattern will become more progressive as a trough
carves out of western Canada producing an initial breezy cold
front Sunday...but with not a lot of moisture...followed by an
increasing chance of showers Monday through Tuesday as the upper
trough settles into the region with a commiserate cooling of
temperatures back toward seasonal normals. This unsettled period
may begin to improve Tuesday night and Wednesday as the next ridge
builds over the region. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: The next 12 hours have the potential to be active across
the region as a cold front interacts with an unstable air mass in
place. The main aviation impacts this morning will be areas of
MVFR stratus between Pullman and Spokane coupled with spotty light
showers littering much of the region. After 20z...focus will
switch to the t-storm potential as the frontal boundary slides
down from the north. Storms will be capable of small hail, gusty
winds, and heavy downpours. Isolated stronger storms capable of
of large hail and damaging winds are a possibility along an axis
stretching frm KALW to KMLP and points south btwn 23-03Z. /sb



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        73  54  77  54  81  55 /  50  20  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  73  49  76  50  81  52 /  60  20  10  10  10   0
Pullman        71  49  75  49  78  51 /  60  20  10  10  10   0
Lewiston       76  53  81  54  83  56 /  60  30  20  10  10  10
Colville       73  45  81  47  85  48 /  60  20  10  10   0   0
Sandpoint      71  47  74  44  79  46 /  60  30  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        73  45  73  44  79  46 /  60  30  10  10  10   0
Moses Lake     76  52  83  53  86  52 /  30  20  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      75  54  82  57  86  58 /  40  20  10   0   0   0
Omak           73  48  81  53  85  52 /  50  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 050953 AAA
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
230 AM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS AND ANY SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE CASCADES. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR
INCREASED SUNSHINE AND A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
TROUGH WILL INDUCE COOLER ONSHORE FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...ANY ACTIVITY OUT THERE ACCORDING TO CURRENT RADAR IS
AT THIS POINT LIMITED TO EASTERN WASHINGTON...AND EVEN THAT IS
DISSIPATING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. ANY SHOWERS THAT
DO DEVELOP TODAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CASCADES...ALTHOUGH POPS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHT TO LOW-END CHANCE.

AS INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC STARTS TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA...LOOKING AT AN INCREASE OF 4 TO 7 DEGREES IN THE
EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY VS THOSE OF YESTERDAY. THIS
LOOKS TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER SYSTEM INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR MODELS TO HINT AT THE PROSPECT OF A THERMAL PRESSURE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON FRIDAY. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR
ONSHORE FLOW...HELPING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS PERIOD OF OFFSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO BE VERY
BRIEF...AS HIGHS FOR SATURDAY...WHILE STILL ABOVE NORMAL...HINT AT
COOLING ALONG THE COAST AND THE STRAIT.

THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A
TROUGH DIPS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN LOCKSTEP
WITH EACH OTHER REGARDING FEATURE AND PROSPECT FOR SHOWERS. EXPECTED
PRECIP FROM BOTH MODELS LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT...BUT DOES YIELD
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FEATURE
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO A MORE
SEASONABLE RANGE.

INHERITED FORECAST TAKES MUCH OF THE ABOVE INTO CONSIDERATION AND IS
ON TRACK. SOME MINOR TWEAKS...BUT OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MADE. SMR


.LONG TERM...WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW AS IT DROPS DOWN EAST
OF THE CASCADES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE THREAT OF PRECIP TO LINGER INTO MONDAY...BUT GENERALLY
ALONG THE CASCADES. ONCE IT PASSES THROUGH...RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD
OVER THE PACIFIC...INFLUENCING WESTERN WASHINGTON WEATHER AS EARLY
AS MONDAY...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ALREADY START TO CLIMB UP ONCE
MORE. THIS SHOULD SOUND FAMILIAR...THUS REVEALING THE UPWARD TREND
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SMR

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
EARLY THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG 127W. THE AIR MASS IS GENERALLY MOIST...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE AIR MASS IS WEAKLY
UNSTABLE...MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES. THE AIR MASS WILL DRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND.

CEILINGS OVER THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON SHOULD MAINLY BE
5000 FT OR ABOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...EXCEPT
LOCALLY AROUND 3000 FT WHERE STRATOCUMULUS FORMS IN THE MARINE
LAYER. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY LIFT THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING
MAINLY 12000 FT OR HIGHER BY THIS EVENING.

KSEA...NORTH WIND 4-10 KT THIS MORNING...RISING TO 8-14 KT THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY ONLY LOWER TO AROUND
3500-5000 FT THIS MORNING...THEN IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
MOST DAYS...WITH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES ARE
LIKELY IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD CHANCE OF
WESTERLY GALES IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA SATURDAY EVENING
WHEN A STRONG MARINE PUSH OCCURS. MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT PDT
     TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST
     ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KOTX 050945
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
245 AM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the
region today. Some storms will be capable of heavy
rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy conditions
will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend. More unsettled
and cooler weather is expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE
AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...

Today through Friday: Active weather will continue across the Inland NW
for the next 24-36 hours then look for abrupt drying trend into
Friday as gusty north/northeast winds develop.

A trof of low pressure will migrate into the Wrn US today.  The southern
branch of the low will evolve into a closed low over CA/NV while the
northern branch weakens but ushers a cold front in from the north.
The last 36 hours of southerly flow ahead of the approaching trof
has brought deep moisture into the Inland NW and following last
night`s convective cluster, dewpoints have climbed into the upper
40s to lower 50s. As the region warms this afternoon, the air mass
will become quite unstable leading to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms, some which may be strong. The cold front will push
into the Okanogan Valley early Thursday and continue toward the
south and southeast through the day. The front should make up for
the lack of shortwaves and assist in parcel displacement through
the CIN layer...ultimately resulting in convective towers and mix
of showers and thunderstorms. Drier air will accompany the post
frontal air mass so confidence is moderate that the Okanogan
Valley will be left out of the action following this morning`s
cluster of rain. On the contrary, the boundary will interact with
the instability early afternoon in the East Slopes, Waterville
Plateau, Okanogan Highlands, and Western Basin. This activity will
need to be monitored closely as storm motion will be slowing down
yet PWATS remain around a 0.75". It looks as if the trends in
instability will be on the decline toward the peak heating hours
so we do not anticipate strong storms in these locations but the
possibility for small hail and heavy downpours.

For the remainder of NE WA and N ID, look for scattered light showers
through much of the morning hours followed by the potential for a
lull in the action Thursday morning. The front presses through
during the late afternoon with scattered showers and t-storms
developing. Intensity of these storms carry some uncertainty due
to uncertainty with cloud cover and exactly how much CAPE will be
present as the lift comes through. Small hail and gusty winds will
be possible with any t-storm activity.

Of bigger concern is to the southeast across extreme southeastern WA
and lower ID Panhandle where we find a marginal risk for severe
weather. CAPE values look quite impressive in the late afternoon
with values ranging between 1000-2000 J/kg along and south of a
line from Mullan to Pullman to the Blue Mtns. Clouds could very
well keep these numbers lower and also result in a lull of shower
or t-storm activity through much of the afternoon but when and if
storms develop...they will have the potential to be strong to
locally severe producing large hail and damaging winds along with
heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Some models suggest the
threat will be delayed until after 5PM but cannot rule out
isolated activity sooner which generally leads to lower confidence
on exact timing.

As the weak northern branch shortwave tracks east of the region, the
atmosphere will become drawn to the deep low over CA/NV and gusty
N/NE winds will increase Thursday night and linger into Friday.
Look for an abrupt end to precipitation from north to south
Thursday evening with just a few showers or thunderstorms
lingering around the Camas Prairie and Blue Mtns overnight into
Friday morning. Most of this activity will diminish well before
Friday afternoon.

Winds will be quite gusty Thursday night and Friday, especially
down the Okanogan Valley, Purcell Trench, and across the open
Columbia Basin. Sustained speeds 15-20 mph with gusts 25-40 mph
are a strong possibility however temperatures will already be
rebounding on Friday with highs warming back into the mid 70s. /sb

Friday night through Wednesday...Latest model runs are in fairly
good agreement through the beginning of next week at least. After
some residual showers and possible garden variety thunderstorms
over the Idaho Panhandle Friday evening...the forecast area will
come under the drying influence of a building positively tilted
upper ridge which will keep conditions dry and once again warmer
than normal for Saturday at least. Breezy north to northeast winds
will be the most noticeable weather as dry low level air invades
the region from Canada through the Okanogan Valley and Purcell
trench. Possibly as early as Sunday but certainly by early next
week the weather pattern will become more progressive as a trough
carves out of western Canada producing an initial breezy cold
front Sunday...but with not a lot of moisture...followed by an
increasing chance of showers Monday through Tuesday as the upper
trough settles into the region with a commiserate cooling of
temperatures back toward seasonal normals. This unsettled period
may begin to improve Tuesday night and Wednesday as the next ridge
builds over the region. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Focus of 06Z TAFs is timing and impact of imminent gust
front. Doppler velocities tracking in the 50 to 60 kt range,
headed for GEG. Impacts expected to be less at SFF and COE. Will
need amendments to address rest of forecast after the gust front
passes. JL


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        73  54  77  54  81  55 /  50  20  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  73  49  76  50  81  52 /  60  20  10  10  10   0
Pullman        71  49  75  49  78  51 /  60  20  10  10  10   0
Lewiston       76  53  81  54  83  56 /  60  30  20  10  10  10
Colville       73  45  81  47  85  48 /  60  20  10  10   0   0
Sandpoint      71  47  74  44  79  46 /  60  30  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        73  45  73  44  79  46 /  60  30  10  10  10   0
Moses Lake     76  52  83  53  86  52 /  30  20  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      75  54  82  57  86  58 /  40  20  10   0   0   0
Omak           73  48  81  53  85  52 /  50  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 050935
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
230 AM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS AND ANY SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE CASCADES. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR
INCREASED SUNSHINE AND A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
TROUGH WILL INDUCE COOLER ONSHORE FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...ANY ACTIVITY OUT THERE ACCORDING TO CURRENT RADAR IS
AT THIS POINT LIMITED TO EASTERN WASHINGTON...AND EVEN THAT IS
DISSIPATING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. ANY SHOWERS THAT
DO DEVELOP TODAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CASCADES...ALTHOUGH POPS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHT TO LOW-END CHANCE.

AS INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC STARTS TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA...LOOKING AT AN INCREASE OF 4 TO 7 DEGREES IN THE
EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY VS THOSE OF YESTERDAY. THIS
LOOKS TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER SYSTEM INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR MODELS TO HINT AT THE PROSPECT OF A THERMAL PRESSURE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON FRIDAY. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR
ONSHORE FLOW...HELPING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS PERIOD OF OFFSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO BE VERY
BRIEF...AS HIGHS FOR SATURDAY...WHILE STILL ABOVE NORMAL...HINT AT
COOLING ALONG THE COAST AND THE STRAIT.

THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A
TROUGH DIPS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN LOCKSTEP
WITH EACH OTHER REGARDING FEATURE AND PROSPECT FOR SHOWERS. EXPECTED
PRECIP FROM BOTH MODELS LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT...BUT DOES YIELD
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FEATURE
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO A MORE
SEASONABLE RANGE.

INHERITED FORECAST TAKES MUCH OF THE ABOVE INTO CONSIDERATION AND IS
ON TRACK. SOME MINOR TWEAKS...BUT OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MADE. SMR


.LONG TERM...WESTERN WASHINGTO WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW AS IT DROPS DOWN EAST
OF THE CASCADES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE THREAT OF PRECIP TO LINGER INTO MONDAY...BUT GENERALLY
ALONG THE CASCADES. ONCE IT PASSES THROUGH...RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD
OVER THE PACIFIC...INFLUENCING WESTERN WASHINGTON WEATHER AS EARLY
AS MONDAY...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ALREADY START TO CLIMB UP ONCE
MORE. THIS SHOULD SOUND FAMILIAR...THUS REVEALING THE UPWARD TREND
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SMR

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
EARLY THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG 127W. THE AIR MASS IS GENERALLY MOIST...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE AIR MASS IS WEAKLY
UNSTABLE...MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES. THE AIR MASS WILL DRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND.

CEILINGS OVER THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON SHOULD MAINLY BE
5000 FT OR ABOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...EXCEPT
LOCALLY AROUND 3000 FT WHERE STRATOCUMULUS FORMS IN THE MARINE
LAYER. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY LIFT THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING
MAINLY 12000 FT OR HIGHER BY THIS EVENING.

KSEA...NORTH WIND 4-10 KT THIS MORNING...RISING TO 8-14 KT THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY ONLY LOWER TO AROUND
3500-5000 FT THIS MORNING...THEN IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
MOST DAYS...WITH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES ARE
LIKELY IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD CHANCE OF
WESTERLY GALES IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA SATURDAY EVENING
WHEN A STRONG MARINE PUSH OCCURS. MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT PDT
     TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST
     ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

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YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
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000
FXUS66 KPQR 050911 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
208 AM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...THE COOL AND SHOWERY PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION WILL GIVE
WAY TO DECREASING CLOUDS...WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE CASCADES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BRING A
RETURN TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY
INCREASE MARINE CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING N JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NW
COAST. S FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NW WED...BUT BY THIS
MORNING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WAS WELL E OF THE CASCADES AND DOWN IN
NORTHERN CA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE UPPER LOW
FURTHER CUTTING OFF AND MOVING TO THE DESERT SW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE W TO THE N OF THE
LOW...ACROSS WA. THIS BACKS THE MID AND UPPER FLOW TO THE SE THIS
AFTERNOON...TO THE E BY FRI AND NE BY SUN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
BEST INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY OVER THE CASCADES...
WHILE FURTHER W WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS APPEARS LIKELY TO LIMIT
CONVECTIVE PROSPECTS TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOOON AND
EVENING OVER THE CASCADES.

AIR MASS IN GENERAL EXPECTED TO STABILIZE FRI AND SAT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER WA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE DIMINISHED FRI...AND LIMITED MAINLY TO THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES
AND FOOTHILLS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SAT AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONSHORE FROM THE NW...BUT AFTER THE EXTENSIVE
MARINE CLOUDS THIS MORNING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO GREATLY LIMIT
THE EXTENT AND COVERAGE OF MARINE CLOUDS FRI AND SAT. SUBSIDENCE
WILL ALSO RESULT IN A PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR MASS DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH MODEL H8 TEMPS WAMRING TO AROUND 14 DEG C INLAND BY
FRI AND SAT. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE WARMEST WEATHER INLAND
WHERE HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE AROUND 80 IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...00Z GFS AND EC MODEL RUNS BOTH INDICATE A FAIRLY STRONG
NW MARINE PUSH SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS TO THE NW
AND A SHORTWAVE DIGS ACROSS SUN. WITH THE INFLUX OF COOLER MARINE AIR
AND THE SHORTWAVE...WILL ALSO ADD IN A CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE N LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION...WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES AND STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP A MORE JUNE
LIKE PATTERN...WITH LATE NIGHT/AM CLOUDS THEN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. MAIN EFFECT WILL BE INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPS SUN AND MON. COASTAL AREAS MAY NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOONS. TUE AND WED WILL SEE WEAKENING
ONSHORE FLOW WITH WARMING AND DRY WEATHER.
&&


.AVIATION...SATELLITE AND MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS SUGGEST MULTIPLE
CLOUD LAYERS EXTENDING TO AROUND FL100. AT 09Z CIGS PRIMARILY 025
TO 035. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH 16Z. GENERAL IMPROVEMENT
AFTER 16Z WITH PREDOMINANT VFR ACROSS THE REGION BY 19Z. THERE
WILL BE A THREAT OF -SHRA THIS MORNING SOUTH OF A KONP-KCVO LINE.
ANY AFTERNOON -SHRA SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER CASCADES.
EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS TO RETURN TO THE COAST AFTER 04Z FRI.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH-END MVFR AT THE TERMINAL AS OF
09Z...BUT THERE ARE AREAS OF LOW-END VFR IN THE VICINITY. EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THEN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL MARINE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND CONTINUES FOR THE
OUTER MARINE ZONES. EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z FRI AS
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 20 TO 25 KT BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
SPEEDS WITH 975 MB SPEEDS AROUND 30 KT. IT APPEARS WIND SPEEDS
OVER THE OUTER WATERS EASE JUST A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RAMP UP
AGAIN THU EVENING INTO FRI MORNING.

THE INNER ZONES ARE A LITTLE MORE TRICKY. OPTED TO EXTEND THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND IN PZZ255 UNTIL 08Z FRI WHERE GUSTS
TO 25 KT WILL PERSIST. WIND SPEEDS OVER THE INNER WATERS EASE A
LITTLE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...ENOUGH SO THAT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR PZZ250.
HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW SPEEDS PICKING UP AGAIN LATE THU AFTERNOON
TO WARRANT ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PZZ250. ALL THE SMALL
CRAFT WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY NEED EXTENDED THROUGH SAT.

OVERALL...WIND SPEEDS DECREASE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE NW. THIS TROUGH WILL INDUCE
A FAIRLY STRONG MARINE SURGE...RESULTING IN 15 TO 20 KT WIND
SPEEDS.

THE GENERAL SEA STATE CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE WIND-
WAVE COMPONENT. SHORT PERIODS FROM THE FRESH SWELL ARE LEADING TO
CHOPPY SEAS. EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH
06Z FRI. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
     PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 AM
     PDT EARLY THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 050907
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
208 AM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...THE COOL AND SHOWERY PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION WILL GIVE
WAY TO DECREASING CLOUDS...WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE CASCADES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BRING A
RETURN TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY
INCREASE MARINE CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING N JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NW
COAST. S FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NW WED...BUT BY THIS
MORNING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WAS WELL E OF THE CASCADES AND DOWN IN
NORTHERN CA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE UPPER LOW
FURTHER CUTTING OFF AND MOVING TO THE DESERT SW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE W TO THE N OF THE
LOW...ACROSS WA. THIS BACKS THE MID AND UPPER FLOW TO THE SE THIS
AFTERNOON...TO THE E BY FRI AND NE BY SUN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
BEST INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY OVER THE CASCADES...
WHILE FURTHER W WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS APPEARS LIKELY TO LIMIT
CONVECTIVE PROSPECTS TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOOON AND
EVENING OVER THE CASCADES.

AIR MASS IN GENERAL EXPECTED TO STABILIZE FRI AND SAT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER WA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE DIMINISHED FRI...AND LIMITED MAINLY TO THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES
AND FOOTHILLS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SAT AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONSHORE FROM THE NW...BUT AFTER THE EXTENSIVE
MARINE CLOUDS THIS MORNING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO GREATLY LIMIT
THE EXTENT AND COVERAGE OF MARINE CLOUDS FRI AND SAT. SUBSIDENCE
WILL ALSO RESULT IN A PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR MASS DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH MODEL H8 TEMPS WAMRING TO AROUND 14 DEG C INLAND BY
FRI AND SAT. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE WARMEST WEATHER INLAND
WHERE HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE AROUND 80 IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...00Z GFS AND EC MODEL RUNS BOTH INDICATE A FAIRLY STRONG
NW MARINE PUSH SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS TO THE NW
AND A SHORTWAVE DIGS ACROSS SUN. WITH THE INFLUX OF COOLER MARINE AIR
AND THE SHORTWAVE...WILL ALSO ADD IN A CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE N LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION...WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES AND STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP A MORE JUNE
LIKE PATTERN...WITH LATE NIGHT/AM CLOUDS THEN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. MAIN EFFECT WILL BE INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPS SUN AND MON. COASTAL AREAS MAY NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOONS. TUE AND WED WILL SEE WEAKENING
ONSHORE FLOW WITH WARMING AND DRY WEATHER.
&&


.AVIATION...SATELLITE AND MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS SUGGEST MULTIPLE
CLOUD LAYERS EXTENDING TO AROUND FL100. AT 09Z CIGS PRIMARILY 025
TO 035. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH 16Z. GENERAL IMPROVEMENT
AFTER 16Z WITH PREDOMINANT VFR ACROSS THE REGION BY 19Z. THERE
WILL BE A THREAT OF -SHRA THIS MORNING SOUTH OF A KONP-KCVO LINE.
ANY AFTERNOON -SHRA SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER CASCADES.
EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS TO RETURN TO THE COAST AFTER 04Z FRI.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH-END MVFR AT THE TERMINAL AS OF
09Z...BUT THERE ARE AREAS OF LOW-END VFR IN THE VICINITY. EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THEN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL MARINE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND CONTINUES FOR THE
OUTER MARINE ZONES. EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z FRI AS
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 20 TO 25 KT BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
SPEEDS WITH 975 MB SPEEDS AROUND 30 KT. IT APPEARS WIND SPEEDS
OVER THE OUTER WATERS EASE JUST A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RAMP UP
AGAIN THU EVENING INTO FRI MORNING.

THE INNER ZONES ARE A LITTLE MORE TRICKY. OPTED TO EXTEND THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND IN PZZ255 UNTIL 08Z FRI WHERE GUSTS
TO 25 KT WILL PERSIST. WIND SPEEDS OVER THE INNER WATERS EASE A
LITTLE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...ENOUGH SO THAT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR PZZ250.
HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW SPEEDS PICKING UP AGAIN LATE THU AFTERNOON
TO WARRANT ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PZZ250. ALL THE SMALL
CRAFT WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY NEED EXTENDED THROUGH SAT.

OVERALL...WIND SPEEDS DECREASE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE NW. THIS TROUGH WILL INDUCE
A FAIRLY STRONG MARINE SURGE...RESULTING IN 15 TO 20 KT WIND
SPEEDS.

THE GENERAL SEA STATE CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE WIND-
WAVE COMPONENT. SHORT PERIODS FROM THE FRESH SWELL ARE LEADING TO
CHOPPY SEAS. EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH
06Z FRI. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
     PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM
     PDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 AM
     PDT EARLY THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 050907
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
208 AM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...THE COOL AND SHOWERY PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION WILL GIVE
WAY TO DECREASING CLOUDS...WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE CASCADES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BRING A
RETURN TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY
INCREASE MARINE CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING N JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NW
COAST. S FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NW WED...BUT BY THIS
MORNING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WAS WELL E OF THE CASCADES AND DOWN IN
NORTHERN CA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE UPPER LOW
FURTHER CUTTING OFF AND MOVING TO THE DESERT SW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE W TO THE N OF THE
LOW...ACROSS WA. THIS BACKS THE MID AND UPPER FLOW TO THE SE THIS
AFTERNOON...TO THE E BY FRI AND NE BY SUN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
BEST INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY OVER THE CASCADES...
WHILE FURTHER W WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS APPEARS LIKELY TO LIMIT
CONVECTIVE PROSPECTS TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOOON AND
EVENING OVER THE CASCADES.

AIR MASS IN GENERAL EXPECTED TO STABILIZE FRI AND SAT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER WA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE DIMINISHED FRI...AND LIMITED MAINLY TO THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES
AND FOOTHILLS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SAT AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONSHORE FROM THE NW...BUT AFTER THE EXTENSIVE
MARINE CLOUDS THIS MORNING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO GREATLY LIMIT
THE EXTENT AND COVERAGE OF MARINE CLOUDS FRI AND SAT. SUBSIDENCE
WILL ALSO RESULT IN A PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR MASS DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH MODEL H8 TEMPS WAMRING TO AROUND 14 DEG C INLAND BY
FRI AND SAT. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE WARMEST WEATHER INLAND
WHERE HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE AROUND 80 IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...00Z GFS AND EC MODEL RUNS BOTH INDICATE A FAIRLY STRONG
NW MARINE PUSH SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS TO THE NW
AND A SHORTWAVE DIGS ACROSS SUN. WITH THE INFLUX OF COOLER MARINE AIR
AND THE SHORTWAVE...WILL ALSO ADD IN A CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE N LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION...WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES AND STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP A MORE JUNE
LIKE PATTERN...WITH LATE NIGHT/AM CLOUDS THEN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. MAIN EFFECT WILL BE INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPS SUN AND MON. COASTAL AREAS MAY NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOONS. TUE AND WED WILL SEE WEAKENING
ONSHORE FLOW WITH WARMING AND DRY WEATHER.
&&


.AVIATION...SATELLITE AND MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS SUGGEST MULTIPLE
CLOUD LAYERS EXTENDING TO AROUND FL100. AT 09Z CIGS PRIMARILY 025
TO 035. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH 16Z. GENERAL IMPROVEMENT
AFTER 16Z WITH PREDOMINANT VFR ACROSS THE REGION BY 19Z. THERE
WILL BE A THREAT OF -SHRA THIS MORNING SOUTH OF A KONP-KCVO LINE.
ANY AFTERNOON -SHRA SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER CASCADES.
EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS TO RETURN TO THE COAST AFTER 04Z FRI.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH-END MVFR AT THE TERMINAL AS OF
09Z...BUT THERE ARE AREAS OF LOW-END VFR IN THE VICINITY. EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THEN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL MARINE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND CONTINUES FOR THE
OUTER MARINE ZONES. EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z FRI AS
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 20 TO 25 KT BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
SPEEDS WITH 975 MB SPEEDS AROUND 30 KT. IT APPEARS WIND SPEEDS
OVER THE OUTER WATERS EASE JUST A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RAMP UP
AGAIN THU EVENING INTO FRI MORNING.

THE INNER ZONES ARE A LITTLE MORE TRICKY. OPTED TO EXTEND THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND IN PZZ255 UNTIL 08Z FRI WHERE GUSTS
TO 25 KT WILL PERSIST. WIND SPEEDS OVER THE INNER WATERS EASE A
LITTLE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...ENOUGH SO THAT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR PZZ250.
HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW SPEEDS PICKING UP AGAIN LATE THU AFTERNOON
TO WARRANT ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PZZ250. ALL THE SMALL
CRAFT WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY NEED EXTENDED THROUGH SAT.

OVERALL...WIND SPEEDS DECREASE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE NW. THIS TROUGH WILL INDUCE
A FAIRLY STRONG MARINE SURGE...RESULTING IN 15 TO 20 KT WIND
SPEEDS.

THE GENERAL SEA STATE CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE WIND-
WAVE COMPONENT. SHORT PERIODS FROM THE FRESH SWELL ARE LEADING TO
CHOPPY SEAS. EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH
06Z FRI. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
     PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM
     PDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 AM
     PDT EARLY THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 050545
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1045 PM PDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the
region tonight and into Thursday. Some storms will be capable of
heavy rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy
conditions will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updates to published forecast for the next 6 hours or so has been
published to reflect the area of showers and thunderstorms moving
up from the south this evening through Adams...Whitman and
imminently into Spokane and Lincoln Counties. While these storms
were severe earlier this evening over Oregon...spotter reports as
they crossed into the Spokane CWA suggests they are now more
tame...although still capable of brief heavy rain and wind gusts
to 40 mph as they track northward through the basin this evening.
Radar suggest an outflow boundary pushing ahead of the shower mass
currently over north Whitman county and may bring 30 to 40 mph
wind gusts to the Spokane area between 11 pm and 1130 pm. The
whole area of showers and isolated thunderstorms will track north
through Spokane and into the Northeast mountains through
tonight...although embedded thunderstorms will become less common
but still present through the night. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Focus of 06Z TAFs is timing and impact of imminent gust
front. Doppler velocities tracking in the 50 to 60 kt range,
headed for GEG. Impacts expected to be less at SFF and COE. Will
need ammendments to address rest of forecast after the gust front
passes. JL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  73  52  76  54  81 /  60  60  50  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  52  74  49  74  50  81 /  60  60  50  10  10  10
Pullman        51  70  48  74  49  79 /  40  50  50  10  10  10
Lewiston       56  76  52  79  54  84 /  20  40  50  20  10  10
Colville       50  71  45  79  47  85 /  60  70  50  10  10   0
Sandpoint      50  72  45  72  44  79 /  60  60  50  20  10   0
Kellogg        49  74  44  72  44  79 /  50  50  50  30  20  10
Moses Lake     53  75  49  81  53  87 /  70  40  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      55  74  53  81  57  87 /  60  40  20  10  10   0
Omak           54  72  48  80  53  85 /  50  60  30  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 050545
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1045 PM PDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the
region tonight and into Thursday. Some storms will be capable of
heavy rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy
conditions will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updates to published forecast for the next 6 hours or so has been
published to reflect the area of showers and thunderstorms moving
up from the south this evening through Adams...Whitman and
imminently into Spokane and Lincoln Counties. While these storms
were severe earlier this evening over Oregon...spotter reports as
they crossed into the Spokane CWA suggests they are now more
tame...although still capable of brief heavy rain and wind gusts
to 40 mph as they track northward through the basin this evening.
Radar suggest an outflow boundary pushing ahead of the shower mass
currently over north Whitman county and may bring 30 to 40 mph
wind gusts to the Spokane area between 11 pm and 1130 pm. The
whole area of showers and isolated thunderstorms will track north
through Spokane and into the Northeast mountains through
tonight...although embedded thunderstorms will become less common
but still present through the night. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Focus of 06Z TAFs is timing and impact of imminent gust
front. Doppler velocities tracking in the 50 to 60 kt range,
headed for GEG. Impacts expected to be less at SFF and COE. Will
need ammendments to address rest of forecast after the gust front
passes. JL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  73  52  76  54  81 /  60  60  50  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  52  74  49  74  50  81 /  60  60  50  10  10  10
Pullman        51  70  48  74  49  79 /  40  50  50  10  10  10
Lewiston       56  76  52  79  54  84 /  20  40  50  20  10  10
Colville       50  71  45  79  47  85 /  60  70  50  10  10   0
Sandpoint      50  72  45  72  44  79 /  60  60  50  20  10   0
Kellogg        49  74  44  72  44  79 /  50  50  50  30  20  10
Moses Lake     53  75  49  81  53  87 /  70  40  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      55  74  53  81  57  87 /  60  40  20  10  10   0
Omak           54  72  48  80  53  85 /  50  60  30  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 050502
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1002 PM PDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the
region tonight and into Thursday. Some storms will be capable of
heavy rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy
conditions will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updates to published forecast for the next 6 hours or so has been
published to reflect the area of showers and thunderstorms moving
up from the south this evening through Adams...Whitman and
imminently into Spokane and Lincoln Counties. While these storms
were severe earlier this evening over Oregon...spotter reports as
they crossed into the Spokane CWA suggests they are now more
tame...although still capable of brief heavy rain and wind gusts
to 40 mph as they track northward through the basin this evening.
Radar suggest an outflow boundary pushing ahead of the shower mass
currently over north Whitman county and may bring 30 to 40 mph
wind gusts to the Spokane area between 11 pm and 1130 pm. The
whole area of showers and isolated thunderstorms will track north
through Spokane and into the Northeast mountains through
tonight...although embedded thunderstorms will become less common
but still present through the night. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A south to north flow of moisture will continue over
the region thru Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue to move from south to north Wednesday evening and
overnight into Thursday morning region wide. Local MVFR ceilings
and visibilities can be expected with the storms. JL


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  73  52  76  54  81 /  60  60  50  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  52  74  49  74  50  81 /  60  60  50  10  10  10
Pullman        51  70  48  74  49  79 /  40  50  50  10  10  10
Lewiston       56  76  52  79  54  84 /  20  40  50  20  10  10
Colville       50  71  45  79  47  85 /  60  70  50  10  10   0
Sandpoint      50  72  45  72  44  79 /  60  60  50  20  10   0
Kellogg        49  74  44  72  44  79 /  50  50  50  30  20  10
Moses Lake     53  75  49  81  53  87 /  70  40  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      55  74  53  81  57  87 /  60  40  20  10  10   0
Omak           54  72  48  80  53  85 /  50  60  30  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 050502
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1002 PM PDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the
region tonight and into Thursday. Some storms will be capable of
heavy rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy
conditions will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updates to published forecast for the next 6 hours or so has been
published to reflect the area of showers and thunderstorms moving
up from the south this evening through Adams...Whitman and
imminently into Spokane and Lincoln Counties. While these storms
were severe earlier this evening over Oregon...spotter reports as
they crossed into the Spokane CWA suggests they are now more
tame...although still capable of brief heavy rain and wind gusts
to 40 mph as they track northward through the basin this evening.
Radar suggest an outflow boundary pushing ahead of the shower mass
currently over north Whitman county and may bring 30 to 40 mph
wind gusts to the Spokane area between 11 pm and 1130 pm. The
whole area of showers and isolated thunderstorms will track north
through Spokane and into the Northeast mountains through
tonight...although embedded thunderstorms will become less common
but still present through the night. /Fugazzi

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A south to north flow of moisture will continue over
the region thru Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue to move from south to north Wednesday evening and
overnight into Thursday morning region wide. Local MVFR ceilings
and visibilities can be expected with the storms. JL


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  73  52  76  54  81 /  60  60  50  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  52  74  49  74  50  81 /  60  60  50  10  10  10
Pullman        51  70  48  74  49  79 /  40  50  50  10  10  10
Lewiston       56  76  52  79  54  84 /  20  40  50  20  10  10
Colville       50  71  45  79  47  85 /  60  70  50  10  10   0
Sandpoint      50  72  45  72  44  79 /  60  60  50  20  10   0
Kellogg        49  74  44  72  44  79 /  50  50  50  30  20  10
Moses Lake     53  75  49  81  53  87 /  70  40  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      55  74  53  81  57  87 /  60  40  20  10  10   0
Omak           54  72  48  80  53  85 /  50  60  30  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 050404
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
857 PM PDT WED MAY  4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...THE COOL AND SHOWERY PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION WILL GIVE
WAY TO DECREASING CLOUDS...WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE CASCADES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BRING A
RETURN TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY
INCREASE MARINE CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.


&&


.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MEANDER EASTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. AS THE SYSTEM CUTS OFF FROM
THE MEAN WESTERLIES...500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER THE
REGION WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WARM
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN...BRING FEWER CLOUDS AND PRIMARILY KEEP RAIN
LIMITED TO THE CASCADES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. LINGERING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS
FAR EASTERN LANE AND LINN COUNTIES INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OTHERWISE...SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD BUILD SOLIDLY ENOUGH
OVER THE REGION THAT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE DRY SATURDAY WITH
VALLEY TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S ONCE AGAIN.

IN THE MORE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...A MESSY SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN
LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING MAINLY VARIOUS CLOUD DECKS AND A
FEW SPRINKLES TO THE REGION. THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IDEA IS
CURRENTLY FOUND ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN LANE COUNTY NEAR WILLAMETTE
PASS WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT TO HAVE ALLOWED A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...BETWEEN DECREASING INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT AND THE NORTHEASTWARD STORM MOTION...THIS THREAT WILL END
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE LEFTOVERS OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED EARLER ACROSS COOS AND CURRY COUNTIES IN FAR SOUTHWEST
OREGON WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...BUT WHETHER THESE WILL HOLD TOGETHER ENOUGH TO EVEN
BRING SPRINKLES REMAINS QUESTIONABLE. GIVEN RADAR AND MODEL
TRENDS...DECREASED RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...(SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED)... HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION...WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL
KEEP A MORE JUNE LIKE PATTERN...WITH LATE NIGHT/AM CLOUDS THEN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WEAK FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION SUN...BUT LOOKS
DRY. MAIN EFFECT WILL BE INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW. WILL COOL SUN AND
MON BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH MORNING CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. COASTAL AREAS MAY NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOONS. AFTERWARDS...WILL SEE WEAKENING
ONSHORE FLOW WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER.   ROCKEY.


&&


.AVIATION...CIGS INLAND ARE MOSTLY VFR THOUGH CIGS NEAR THE
CASCADE FOOTHILLS COULD BE CLOSE TO MVFR. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO
MVFR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR
CIGS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE COAST IS ALSO VFR THIS EVENING BUT
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING SOME THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH THE MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTH
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF KEUG AND KSLE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CONDITIONS MOSTLY VFR UNTIL LOWERING TO
MVFR CIGS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT
CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. POSSIBLY A STRAY SHOWER
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT CHANCES ARE RATHER MODEST. PT


&&


.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
12Z THU FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...THROUGH 18Z THU FOR THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS...AND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK UP AGAIN ALL THE
WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY.

SEAS WILL BE 8 TO 9 FT TONIGHT...EASE A LITTLE THURSDAY...THEN
BUILD BACK TO 8 TO 10 FT FRIDAY. SHORT PERIODS FROM THE FRESH
SWELL ARE LEADING TO CHOPPY SEAS WITH SHORT PERIODS THAT MAY
CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. PT


&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 AM TO
     6 AM PDT THURSDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 050354
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST THURSDAY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE CASCADES. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR
INCREASED SUNSHINE AND A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
TROUGH WILL INDUCE COOLER ONSHORE FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS TAPERED CONSIDERABLY IN WESTERN WASHINGTON
THIS EVENING THOUGH THERE ARE STILL A FEW AROUND. MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS WELL AS ALL OF THE LIGHTNING BEEN WELL EAST OF THE
CASCADE CREST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PATTERN OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY AND WILL PROBABLY BE CONFINED TO NEAR THE CASCADE CREST IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY...WITH 65-70 OVER THE INTERIOR.

MODELS AGREE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA ON
FRIDAY AND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
FRIDAY THEN MOVE ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
OFFSHORE FLOW. FRIDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH 70S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT ALONG THE STRAIT WHERE IT WILL STAY A BIT COOLER.

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED SIMILARLY FAST WITH AN APPROACHING
TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE MODELS SHOW AN ONSHORE PUSH DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD CUT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT ON
SATURDAY. BOTH THE NAM/CANADIAN ARE A BIT SLOWER...DELAYING THE
ONSHORE PUSH UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AND WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN HIGHS
AT LEAST +5F DEGREES WARMER. WENT WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS WHICH GIVES ANOTHER DAY OF 70S SATURDAY...RATHER THAN LOW
80S AS SUGGESTED BY SOME PREVIOUS RUNS. HIGHS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD
ONLY BE IN THE 60S WHERE THE SWITCH TO ONSHORE FLOW WILL OCCUR
EARLIEST. MERCER/BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
THE DEEPER TROUGH SOLUTION SUNDAY THAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
ADVERTISING THE PAST FEW CYCLES. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND A DEEP
MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY BRING CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES...MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S. MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
QPF IMPLYING SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE OUT OF THE MARINE LAYER. THIS
PROBABLY WOULD NOT BE MEASURABLE FOR MOST SPOTS SO DRY WEATHER IS
STILL FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
SOME FRONTAL MOISTURE COULD GRAZE THE EXTREME NORTH SO SOME VERY
LIGHT QPF AND LOW CHANCE POPS WERE ADDED TO THE NORTH COAST AND
CENTRAL/NORTH CASCADES INTO EARLY MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES
INTO MONDAY BUT WILL BEGIN TO WANE WITH ONLY SLIGHT WARMING OVER
SUNDAY.

MOST MODELS SHOW A RIDGE TRAVERSING THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
FOR A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. SOME MODELS SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHING MID WEEK BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
THURSDAY...BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD. KEPT CONDITIONS DRY WITH
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS ALONG 127W. THE AIR MASS IS GENERALLY MOIST AND WEAKLY
UNSTABLE...MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES. THE AIR MASS WILL DRY
SOMEWHAT LATER THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES
INLAND.

CEILINGS OVER THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON SHOULD MAINLY BE
4000 FT OR ABOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN IMPROVE TO MAINLY 12000 FT OR ABOVE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

KSEA...NORTH WIND 4-10 KT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CEILINGS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN 035-050 THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...THEN IMPROVE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES. THE STRONGEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MOST
DAYS. THE STRONGEST PUSH OF WESTERLIES IN THE STRAIT IS LIKELY TO
BE SATURDAY EVENING WHEN GALES ARE POSSIBLE WITH A STRONG MARINE
PUSH. MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KOTX 042352
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
452 PM PDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the
region tonight and into Thursday. Some storms will be capable of
heavy rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy
conditions will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Thursday...A moist southerly flow of moisture and
energy keeps this time interval unsettled and cluttered with
showers and thunderstorms in various shape and/or form. A storm
motion from south to north at 25 mph keeps the thunderstorms
moving quickly overnight tonight. Thursday the storm motion
changes to a slower motion to the southeast at less than 5 mph
over the East Slopes of the Cascades and into parts of the
Okanogan Highlands down to part of the Columbia Basin while
further east over Extreme Eastern Washington and North Idaho the
storm motion is a bit quicker and expected to move storms
southwest to northeast at 15 to 20 mph. The instability is greater
over southeast Washington and all of the North Idaho Panhandle
Thursday which is one of the reasons it is mentioned in a Marginal
Risk of Severe Weather in the Storm Prediction Center Day 2
Outlook. Gusty wind, small hail, and brief heavy downpours are the
expected nuisance weather associated with any thunderstorms.
/Pelatti

Thursday night through Wednesday: The Inland NW dries out
and warms up before a threat of mainly mountain showers returns
early next week. Between Thursday night and Saturday a strong cut-
off low sags toward the Desert Southwest, placing our region in an
east to northeasterly flow. A weakening deformation axis and minor
impulsing rounding the north side of the low will keep a slight
risk for showers and thunderstorms across the southeast CWA
through Saturday. The remainder of the CWA will be dry. However
winds will be a concern with a tight northeast to southwest
gradient. Winds should be breezy both Friday and Saturday. Yet
winds look strongest on Friday with speeds in the 15-20 mph range
and gusts to 30 mph, before they start to slacken going into
Saturday.

From Sunday into Wednesday the next long-wave trough (now moving
into the Gulf of AK) migrates into western Canada and then into
the northern Rockies. Sunday moisture starts to creep up from the
south again, bolstering shower chances near the southeast CWA.
Other chances return to the northern mountains. Sunday night into
Wednesday the jet streams sags into the Inland Northwest, carrying
shortwaves and the threat of showers in. However the threat will
be somewhat limited by the fact not a lot of deep moisture or
instability comes into the region. What does exists appears best
across northern WA and ID Panhandle mountains and so is where the
best shower threat will be. Expect breezy conditions between
Sunday and Monday with the incoming trough too. Temperatures
undergo a warming trend through Sunday, with highs some 10-15
degrees above normal, before the trough pushes values back down to
maybe 5 degrees above normal. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A south to north flow of moisture will continue over
the region thru Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue to move from south to north Wednesday evening and
overnight into Thursday morning region wide. Local MVFR ceilings
and visibilities can be expected with the storms. JL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  73  52  76  54  81 /  50  60  50  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  52  74  49  74  50  81 /  50  60  50  10  10  10
Pullman        51  70  48  74  49  79 /  50  50  50  10  10  10
Lewiston       56  76  52  79  54  84 /  40  40  50  20  10  10
Colville       50  71  45  79  47  85 /  40  70  50  10  10   0
Sandpoint      50  72  45  72  44  79 /  30  60  50  20  10   0
Kellogg        49  74  44  72  44  79 /  30  50  50  30  20  10
Moses Lake     53  75  49  81  53  87 /  60  40  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      55  74  53  81  57  87 /  60  40  20  10  10   0
Omak           54  72  48  80  53  85 /  50  60  30  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 042352
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
452 PM PDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the
region tonight and into Thursday. Some storms will be capable of
heavy rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy
conditions will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Thursday...A moist southerly flow of moisture and
energy keeps this time interval unsettled and cluttered with
showers and thunderstorms in various shape and/or form. A storm
motion from south to north at 25 mph keeps the thunderstorms
moving quickly overnight tonight. Thursday the storm motion
changes to a slower motion to the southeast at less than 5 mph
over the East Slopes of the Cascades and into parts of the
Okanogan Highlands down to part of the Columbia Basin while
further east over Extreme Eastern Washington and North Idaho the
storm motion is a bit quicker and expected to move storms
southwest to northeast at 15 to 20 mph. The instability is greater
over southeast Washington and all of the North Idaho Panhandle
Thursday which is one of the reasons it is mentioned in a Marginal
Risk of Severe Weather in the Storm Prediction Center Day 2
Outlook. Gusty wind, small hail, and brief heavy downpours are the
expected nuisance weather associated with any thunderstorms.
/Pelatti

Thursday night through Wednesday: The Inland NW dries out
and warms up before a threat of mainly mountain showers returns
early next week. Between Thursday night and Saturday a strong cut-
off low sags toward the Desert Southwest, placing our region in an
east to northeasterly flow. A weakening deformation axis and minor
impulsing rounding the north side of the low will keep a slight
risk for showers and thunderstorms across the southeast CWA
through Saturday. The remainder of the CWA will be dry. However
winds will be a concern with a tight northeast to southwest
gradient. Winds should be breezy both Friday and Saturday. Yet
winds look strongest on Friday with speeds in the 15-20 mph range
and gusts to 30 mph, before they start to slacken going into
Saturday.

From Sunday into Wednesday the next long-wave trough (now moving
into the Gulf of AK) migrates into western Canada and then into
the northern Rockies. Sunday moisture starts to creep up from the
south again, bolstering shower chances near the southeast CWA.
Other chances return to the northern mountains. Sunday night into
Wednesday the jet streams sags into the Inland Northwest, carrying
shortwaves and the threat of showers in. However the threat will
be somewhat limited by the fact not a lot of deep moisture or
instability comes into the region. What does exists appears best
across northern WA and ID Panhandle mountains and so is where the
best shower threat will be. Expect breezy conditions between
Sunday and Monday with the incoming trough too. Temperatures
undergo a warming trend through Sunday, with highs some 10-15
degrees above normal, before the trough pushes values back down to
maybe 5 degrees above normal. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A south to north flow of moisture will continue over
the region thru Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue to move from south to north Wednesday evening and
overnight into Thursday morning region wide. Local MVFR ceilings
and visibilities can be expected with the storms. JL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  73  52  76  54  81 /  50  60  50  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  52  74  49  74  50  81 /  50  60  50  10  10  10
Pullman        51  70  48  74  49  79 /  50  50  50  10  10  10
Lewiston       56  76  52  79  54  84 /  40  40  50  20  10  10
Colville       50  71  45  79  47  85 /  40  70  50  10  10   0
Sandpoint      50  72  45  72  44  79 /  30  60  50  20  10   0
Kellogg        49  74  44  72  44  79 /  30  50  50  30  20  10
Moses Lake     53  75  49  81  53  87 /  60  40  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      55  74  53  81  57  87 /  60  40  20  10  10   0
Omak           54  72  48  80  53  85 /  50  60  30  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 042221
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHIFTS EASTWARD THURSDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE CASCADES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR INCREASED SUNSHINE AND A RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A TROUGH WILL INDUCE COOLER ONSHORE FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF
OVERCAST CLOUD COVER MOVING SLOWLY INLAND FROM THE COAST. RADAR IS
SHOWING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWERS ACROSS WRN WA THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
CASCADES. MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REACH THE COAST
THURSDAY MORNING AND BECOME EVEN MORE SPLIT AS THE SRN BRANCH LOW
TRACKS INTO CALIFORNIA. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER EAST OF PUGET
SOUND IN THE MORNING THEN BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE CASCADES THROUGH
THE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM THE WEST WITH PARTY
SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL STAY NORTHERLY THROUGH THURSDAY SO LOCATIONS NEAR THE WATER
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 60S.

MODELS AGREE ON AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NE INTO B.C. ON FRIDAY AND
OVER THE PAC NW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERMALLY INDUCED LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER WRN WA FRIDAY THEN MOVE ALONG THE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE FLOW. FRIDAY WILL BE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT ALONG THE
STRAIT WHERE IT WILL STAY A BIT COOLER.

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED SIMILARLY FASTER WITH AN APPROACHING
TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE MODELS SHOW AN ONSHORE PUSH DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD CUT SHORT THE POTENTIAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. BOTH THE NAM/CANADIAN ARE A BIT
SLOWER...DELAYING THE ONSHORE PUSH UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AND WOULD
LIKELY RESULT IN HIGHS AT LEAST +5F DEGREES WARMER. WENT WITH A
BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH GIVES ANOTHER DAY OF 70S
SATURDAY...RATHER THAN LOW 80S AS SUGGESTED BY SOME PREVIOUS RUNS.
HIGHS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 60S WHERE THE SWITCH TO
ONSHORE FLOW WILL OCCUR EARLIEST.

.LONG TERM...GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DEEPER TROUGH
SOLUTION SUNDAY THAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN ADVERTISING THE PAST FEW
CYCLES. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY
BRING CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES...MAINLY IN THE LOW
60S. MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY LIGHT QPF IMPLYING SOME DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE OUT OF THE MARINE LAYER. THIS PROBABLY WOULD NOT BE
MEASURABLE FOR MOST SPOTS SO DRY WEATHER IS STILL FORECAST FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF SOME FRONTAL MOISTURE
COULD GRAZE THE EXTREME NORTH SO SOME VERY LIGHT QPF AND LOW CHANCE
POPS WERE ADDED TO THE NORTH COAST AND CENTRAL/NORTH CASCADES INTO
EARLY MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY BUT WILL BEGIN TO
WANE WITH ONLY SLIGHT WARMING OVER SUNDAY.

MOST MODELS SHOW A RIDGE TRAVERSING THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
FOR A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. SOME MODELS SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHING MID WEEK BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
THURSDAY...BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD. KEPT CONDITIONS DRY WITH
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON.
THERE IS A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH STALLED JUST OFF THE COAST. A FEW
SHOWERS WERE MOVING NORTH THRU THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE
GENERALLY CLOUDY BUT THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE NORTH COAST AND THRU THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.


KSEA...THE NLY BREEZE CONTINUES BUT THE LOW CLOUDS SEEM TO HAVE
BROKEN UP OR BEEN PUSHED SOUTH. IT IS TAKING AWHILE FOR THIS WEAK
TROUGH TO GIVE OUT BUT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SKIES SHOULD SCATTER
OUT.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOWER PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE TIME OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WESTERLIES ARE
ALSO LIKELY EACH EVENING IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. THAT
SAID...THE UIL-BLI GRADIENT MIGHT NOT GET UP HIGH ENOUGH TO GIVE A
DECENT WLY TONIGHT...THE NWS SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
LACK OF GRADIENT IN THE STRAIT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KPQR 042143
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
244 PM PDT WED MAY  4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERY PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS
UPPER LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. THEN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WITH WARMER AND DRY WEATHER FOR FRI INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK
FRONT WILL PASS OVER REGION SUNDAY...BUT NO RAIN AS IT JUST INCREASES
ONSHORE FLOW WITH MORE LATE NIGHT/AM LOW CLOUDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SAT)...
SEEMS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...BUT NOT A LOT OF CHANGE OVER THE REGION.
AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE
REGION...WITH MAIN UPPER LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OFF THE CALIF
COAST. MILD AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THANK TO AFTERNOON HEATING TO BOOST INSTABILITY A BIT DO
HAVE SHOWERS OVER THE REGION EXTENDING S INTO NORTHERN CALIF. THESE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHWARD...WITH INCREASED FREQUENCY
AS MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS SW OREGON. NOT A LOT OF THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE WESTSIDE. DO HAVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP THIS
AFTERNOON CENTRAL OREGON AND UP NEXT TO THE CASCADES CREST. FOR MOST
PART...THUNDERSTORM THREAT STAYS EAST OF THE CREST BUT WILL KEEP
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE CASCADES AND HOOD
RIVER VALLEY SOUTHWARD. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE S WASHINGTON CASCADES AND ALL CASCADES FOOTHILLS.

THE RELATIVELY COOL UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE DYING FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS ALSO WEAKENING...AS MOST OF THE JET ENERGY IN THE NE PAC
GOES TOWARD DEVELOPING A CUTOFF LOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO DECREASE A BIT THURSDAY...PERHAPS BECOMING MORE CONFINED
TO THE CASCADES. MEANWHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
WASHINGTON AND WESTERN CANADA...CREATING A WEAK REX BLOCK TYPE OF A
PATTERN WITH UPPER RIDGING TO THE N AND AN UPPER LOW TO THE S.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO
THE REGION...STARTING FRI.  AFTER SPOTTY AM LOW CLOUDS ON SAT
AM...WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
LOWER 80S.                      ROCKEY.

.LONG TERM...(SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED)... HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION...WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL
KEEP A MORE JUNE LIKE PATTERN...WITH LATE NIGHT/AM CLOUDS THEN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WEAK FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION SUN...BUT LOOKS
DRY. MAIN EFFECT WILL BE INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW. WILL COOL SUN AND
MON BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH MORNING CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. COASTAL AREAS MAY NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOONS. AFTERWARDS...WILL SEE WEAKENING
ONSHORE FLOW WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER.           ROCKEY.
&&


.AVIATION...INCONSISTENT CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS BOUNCING
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AS SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. THESE SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT THE INCONSISTENT CIGS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH ~06Z BEFORE ~2KFT CLOUD DECK BUILDS INTO THE
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. MOST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS CLOUD
DECK OVERCAST TO BROKEN THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR AS OF 21Z...BUT EXPECT PERIODS OF LOWER
2000 TO 2500 FOOT MVFR CIGS THROUGH 23Z. INCREASING THREAT OF
-SHRA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT LOWER MVFR CIGS
TO DEVELOP AFTER 07Z.                             BENTLEY
&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
12Z THU FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND THROUGH 18Z FOR THE OFFSHORE
AREAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN
TIME FOR NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT DID NOT EXTEND AT THIS TIME DUE TO
INDICATIONS OF A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE SHORE
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE ZONES WILL REMAIN
BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

TOTAL WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE INCREASED TO THE 7 TO 10 FT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WITH PREDOMINATELY WIND DOMINATED SEAS...7-8 SECOND PERIODS HAVE
WILL KEEP SEAS STEEP AND CHOPPY...THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. BENTLEY
&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM THURSDAY FOR
         OUTER COASTAL WATERS...OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE
         FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
         INNER COASTAL WATERS...OR FROM SHORE OUT 10 NM FROM
         CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM THU ON
        ALL COASTAL WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
        TODAY...AND AGAIN 2 AM TO 6 AM THU.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 042143
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
244 PM PDT WED MAY  4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERY PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS
UPPER LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. THEN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WITH WARMER AND DRY WEATHER FOR FRI INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK
FRONT WILL PASS OVER REGION SUNDAY...BUT NO RAIN AS IT JUST INCREASES
ONSHORE FLOW WITH MORE LATE NIGHT/AM LOW CLOUDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SAT)...
SEEMS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...BUT NOT A LOT OF CHANGE OVER THE REGION.
AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE
REGION...WITH MAIN UPPER LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OFF THE CALIF
COAST. MILD AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THANK TO AFTERNOON HEATING TO BOOST INSTABILITY A BIT DO
HAVE SHOWERS OVER THE REGION EXTENDING S INTO NORTHERN CALIF. THESE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHWARD...WITH INCREASED FREQUENCY
AS MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS SW OREGON. NOT A LOT OF THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE WESTSIDE. DO HAVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP THIS
AFTERNOON CENTRAL OREGON AND UP NEXT TO THE CASCADES CREST. FOR MOST
PART...THUNDERSTORM THREAT STAYS EAST OF THE CREST BUT WILL KEEP
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE CASCADES AND HOOD
RIVER VALLEY SOUTHWARD. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE S WASHINGTON CASCADES AND ALL CASCADES FOOTHILLS.

THE RELATIVELY COOL UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE DYING FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS ALSO WEAKENING...AS MOST OF THE JET ENERGY IN THE NE PAC
GOES TOWARD DEVELOPING A CUTOFF LOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO DECREASE A BIT THURSDAY...PERHAPS BECOMING MORE CONFINED
TO THE CASCADES. MEANWHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
WASHINGTON AND WESTERN CANADA...CREATING A WEAK REX BLOCK TYPE OF A
PATTERN WITH UPPER RIDGING TO THE N AND AN UPPER LOW TO THE S.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO
THE REGION...STARTING FRI.  AFTER SPOTTY AM LOW CLOUDS ON SAT
AM...WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
LOWER 80S.                      ROCKEY.

.LONG TERM...(SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED)... HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION...WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL
KEEP A MORE JUNE LIKE PATTERN...WITH LATE NIGHT/AM CLOUDS THEN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WEAK FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION SUN...BUT LOOKS
DRY. MAIN EFFECT WILL BE INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW. WILL COOL SUN AND
MON BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH MORNING CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. COASTAL AREAS MAY NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOONS. AFTERWARDS...WILL SEE WEAKENING
ONSHORE FLOW WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER.           ROCKEY.
&&


.AVIATION...INCONSISTENT CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS BOUNCING
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AS SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. THESE SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT THE INCONSISTENT CIGS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH ~06Z BEFORE ~2KFT CLOUD DECK BUILDS INTO THE
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. MOST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS CLOUD
DECK OVERCAST TO BROKEN THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR AS OF 21Z...BUT EXPECT PERIODS OF LOWER
2000 TO 2500 FOOT MVFR CIGS THROUGH 23Z. INCREASING THREAT OF
-SHRA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT LOWER MVFR CIGS
TO DEVELOP AFTER 07Z.                             BENTLEY
&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
12Z THU FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND THROUGH 18Z FOR THE OFFSHORE
AREAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN
TIME FOR NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT DID NOT EXTEND AT THIS TIME DUE TO
INDICATIONS OF A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE SHORE
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE ZONES WILL REMAIN
BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

TOTAL WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE INCREASED TO THE 7 TO 10 FT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WITH PREDOMINATELY WIND DOMINATED SEAS...7-8 SECOND PERIODS HAVE
WILL KEEP SEAS STEEP AND CHOPPY...THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. BENTLEY
&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM THURSDAY FOR
         OUTER COASTAL WATERS...OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE
         FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
         INNER COASTAL WATERS...OR FROM SHORE OUT 10 NM FROM
         CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM THU ON
        ALL COASTAL WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
        TODAY...AND AGAIN 2 AM TO 6 AM THU.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 042116
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
216 PM PDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the
region tonight and into Thursday. Some storms will be capable of
heavy rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy
conditions will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Thursday...A moist southerly flow of moisture and
energy keeps this time interval unsettled and cluttered with
showers and thunderstorms in various shape and/or form. A storm
motion from south to north at 25 mph keeps the thunderstorms
moving quickly overnight tonight. Thursday the storm motion
changes to a slower motion to the southeast at less than 5 mph
over the East Slopes of the Cascades and into parts of the
Okanogan Highlands down to part of the Columbia Basin while
further east over Extreme Eastern Washington and North Idaho the
storm motion is a bit quicker and expected to move storms
southwest to northeast at 15 to 20 mph. The instability is greater
over southeast Washington and all of the North Idaho Panhandle
Thursday which is one of the reasons it is mentioned in a Marginal
Risk of Severe Weather in the Storm Prediction Center Day 2
Outlook. Gusty wind, small hail, and brief heavy downpours are the
expected nuisance weather associated with any thunderstorms.
/Pelatti

Thursday night through Wednesday: The Inland NW dries out
and warms up before a threat of mainly mountain showers returns
early next week. Between Thursday night and Saturday a strong cut-
off low sags toward the Desert Southwest, placing our region in an
east to northeasterly flow. A weakening deformation axis and minor
impulsing rounding the north side of the low will keep a slight
risk for showers and thunderstorms across the southeast CWA
through Saturday. The remainder of the CWA will be dry. However
winds will be a concern with a tight northeast to southwest
gradient. Winds should be breezy both Friday and Saturday. Yet
winds look strongest on Friday with speeds in the 15-20 mph range
and gusts to 30 mph, before they start to slacken going into
Saturday.

From Sunday into Wednesday the next long-wave trough (now moving
into the Gulf of AK) migrates into western Canada and then into
the northern Rockies. Sunday moisture starts to creep up from the
south again, bolstering shower chances near the southeast CWA.
Other chances return to the northern mountains. Sunday night into
Wednesday the jet streams sags into the Inland Northwest, carrying
shortwaves and the threat of showers in. However the threat will
be somewhat limited by the fact not a lot of deep moisture or
instability comes into the region. What does exists appears best
across northern WA and ID Panhandle mountains and so is where the
best shower threat will be. Expect breezy conditions between
Sunday and Monday with the incoming trough too. Temperatures
undergo a warming trend through Sunday, with highs some 10-15
degrees above normal, before the trough pushes values back down to
maybe 5 degrees above normal. /J. Cote`

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A south to north flow of moisture will allow for showers
and thunderstorms to move up from south to north with a storm
motion of 30 mph and bring MVFR ceilings and visibilities to the
aviation area. Currently some light elevated convective showers
are moving north at 30 mph through the aviation area but those
should diminish during the day. The expectation is more
thunderstorms will develop and primarily in the time interval
between 23Z Wednesday through 12Z Thursday. Heavy rain, small
hail, and gusty wind will be the primary nuisance associated with
these thunderstorms. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  73  52  76  54  81 /  50  60  50  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  52  74  49  74  50  81 /  50  60  50  10  10  10
Pullman        51  70  48  74  49  79 /  50  50  50  10  10  10
Lewiston       56  76  52  79  54  84 /  40  40  50  20  10  10
Colville       50  71  45  79  47  85 /  40  70  50  10  10   0
Sandpoint      50  72  45  72  44  79 /  30  60  50  20  10   0
Kellogg        49  74  44  72  44  79 /  30  50  50  30  20  10
Moses Lake     53  75  49  81  53  87 /  60  40  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      55  74  53  81  57  87 /  60  40  20  10  10   0
Omak           54  72  48  80  53  85 /  50  60  30  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 041831
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1131 AM PDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with the threat for showers and
thunderstorms expanding east toward the Idaho Panhandle. Several
rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the region
tonight and into Thursday. Some storms will be capable of heavy
rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy conditions
will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
A second morning update to increase pops slightly to better
address the elevated convective showers that are moving north at
20 mph thorugh Eastern Oregon and up over Eastern Washington and
North Idaho today. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A south to north flow of moisture will allow for
showers and thunderstorms to move up from south to north
with a storm motion of 30 mph and bring MVFR ceilings and
visibilities to the aviation area. Currently some light
elevated convective showers are moving north at 30 mph
through the aviation area but those should diminish
during the day. The expectation is more thunderstorms will develop
and primarily in the time interval between 23Z Wednesday through
12Z Thursday. Heavy rain, small hail, and gusty wind will be the
primary nuisance associated with these thunderstorms. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  55  73  52  76  53 /  20  50  60  50  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  80  52  74  49  74  49 /  20  50  60  50  10  10
Pullman        77  51  70  48  74  48 /  50  50  50  50  10  10
Lewiston       83  56  76  52  79  53 /  20  40  40  50  20  20
Colville       81  50  70  45  79  46 /  20  40  70  50  10  10
Sandpoint      77  50  72  45  72  43 /  20  30  60  50  20  10
Kellogg        80  49  74  44  72  43 /  10  30  50  50  20  20
Moses Lake     81  53  75  49  81  52 /  20  60  40  20  10  10
Wenatchee      78  55  74  53  81  56 /  30  60  40  20  10  10
Omak           79  54  72  48  80  53 /  20  50  60  30  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 041831
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1131 AM PDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with the threat for showers and
thunderstorms expanding east toward the Idaho Panhandle. Several
rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the region
tonight and into Thursday. Some storms will be capable of heavy
rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy conditions
will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
A second morning update to increase pops slightly to better
address the elevated convective showers that are moving north at
20 mph thorugh Eastern Oregon and up over Eastern Washington and
North Idaho today. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A south to north flow of moisture will allow for
showers and thunderstorms to move up from south to north
with a storm motion of 30 mph and bring MVFR ceilings and
visibilities to the aviation area. Currently some light
elevated convective showers are moving north at 30 mph
through the aviation area but those should diminish
during the day. The expectation is more thunderstorms will develop
and primarily in the time interval between 23Z Wednesday through
12Z Thursday. Heavy rain, small hail, and gusty wind will be the
primary nuisance associated with these thunderstorms. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  55  73  52  76  53 /  20  50  60  50  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  80  52  74  49  74  49 /  20  50  60  50  10  10
Pullman        77  51  70  48  74  48 /  50  50  50  50  10  10
Lewiston       83  56  76  52  79  53 /  20  40  40  50  20  20
Colville       81  50  70  45  79  46 /  20  40  70  50  10  10
Sandpoint      77  50  72  45  72  43 /  20  30  60  50  20  10
Kellogg        80  49  74  44  72  43 /  10  30  50  50  20  20
Moses Lake     81  53  75  49  81  52 /  20  60  40  20  10  10
Wenatchee      78  55  74  53  81  56 /  30  60  40  20  10  10
Omak           79  54  72  48  80  53 /  20  50  60  30  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 041738
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1038 AM PDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with the threat for showers and
thunderstorms expanding east toward the Idaho Panhandle. Several
rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the region
tonight and into Thursday. Some storms will be capable of heavy
rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy conditions
will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update to add mention of light morning showers to the
forecast as elevated convection works its way up into the area
moving quickly from south to north at 30mph. Expectation is the
elevated layer upon which the convective showers is being
initiated on will continue to weaken and erode with daytime
heating giving a brief break between convection until the another
round of more intense convection moves into the area from the
south as well and having a greater influence on the forecast this
evening and overnight. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A south to north flow of moisture will allow for
showers and thunderstorms to move up from south to north
with a storm motion of 30 mph and bring MVFR ceilings and
visibilities to the aviation area. Currently some light
elevated convective showers are moving north at 30 mph
through the aviation area but those should diminish
during the day. The expectation is more thunderstorms will develop
and primarily in the time interval between 23Z Wednesday through
12Z Thursday. Heavy rain, small hail, and gusty wind will be the
primary nuisance associated with these thunderstorms. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  55  73  52  76  53 /  20  50  60  50  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  80  52  74  49  74  49 /  10  50  60  50  10  10
Pullman        77  51  70  48  74  48 /  50  50  50  50  10  10
Lewiston       83  56  76  52  79  53 /  20  40  40  50  20  20
Colville       81  50  70  45  79  46 /  20  40  70  50  10  10
Sandpoint      77  50  72  45  72  43 /  20  30  60  50  20  10
Kellogg        80  49  74  44  72  43 /  10  30  50  50  20  20
Moses Lake     81  53  75  49  81  52 /  20  60  40  20  10  10
Wenatchee      78  55  74  53  81  56 /  30  60  40  20  10  10
Omak           79  54  72  48  80  53 /  20  50  60  30  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 041738
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1038 AM PDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with the threat for showers and
thunderstorms expanding east toward the Idaho Panhandle. Several
rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the region
tonight and into Thursday. Some storms will be capable of heavy
rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy conditions
will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update to add mention of light morning showers to the
forecast as elevated convection works its way up into the area
moving quickly from south to north at 30mph. Expectation is the
elevated layer upon which the convective showers is being
initiated on will continue to weaken and erode with daytime
heating giving a brief break between convection until the another
round of more intense convection moves into the area from the
south as well and having a greater influence on the forecast this
evening and overnight. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A south to north flow of moisture will allow for
showers and thunderstorms to move up from south to north
with a storm motion of 30 mph and bring MVFR ceilings and
visibilities to the aviation area. Currently some light
elevated convective showers are moving north at 30 mph
through the aviation area but those should diminish
during the day. The expectation is more thunderstorms will develop
and primarily in the time interval between 23Z Wednesday through
12Z Thursday. Heavy rain, small hail, and gusty wind will be the
primary nuisance associated with these thunderstorms. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  55  73  52  76  53 /  20  50  60  50  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  80  52  74  49  74  49 /  10  50  60  50  10  10
Pullman        77  51  70  48  74  48 /  50  50  50  50  10  10
Lewiston       83  56  76  52  79  53 /  20  40  40  50  20  20
Colville       81  50  70  45  79  46 /  20  40  70  50  10  10
Sandpoint      77  50  72  45  72  43 /  20  30  60  50  20  10
Kellogg        80  49  74  44  72  43 /  10  30  50  50  20  20
Moses Lake     81  53  75  49  81  52 /  20  60  40  20  10  10
Wenatchee      78  55  74  53  81  56 /  30  60  40  20  10  10
Omak           79  54  72  48  80  53 /  20  50  60  30  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 041629
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
845 AM PDT WED MAY  4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STALLED PACIFIC FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE PAC NW COAST...
BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON. TODAY SHOULD
BE A LOT LIKE TUESDAY...THOUGH LIKELY A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS ONSHORE
FLOW INCREASES AND THE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST IN MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK/SHALLOW INSTABILITY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS AND IN THE CASCADES. THERE MAY BARELY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO SW CANADA AND WASHINGTON LATER
THIS WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN TO DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A POORLY ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH/PACIFIC
FRONTAL ZONE STALLED JUST OFF THE PAC NW COAST. MOST OF THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS REORGANIZING INTO AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LINGER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
BRING IN A MOIST AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1
INCH AND LOCALLY A LITTLE HIGHER.

AS A RESULT OF THE NOW MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT...SHOWERS HAVE
BROUGHT BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TUE EVENING. BRISK
SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW IS HELPING TO KEEP THE DOWNPOURS BRIEF...
WHICH ALLEVIATES MOST SMALL STREAM FLOODING ISSUES. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING
THIS AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THIS EVENING. A COUPLE SELECT
LOCATIONS MAY END UP WITH OVER AN INCH OF RAIN BY THURSDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE CASCADES WHERE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN THE GREATEST. DUE TO THIS INSTABILITY THERE STILL MAY BE
A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH ALONG THE OREGON CASCADE CREST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO SHALLOW
FOR THUNDER AND IT APPEARS IT WAS A GOOD CALL FOR PREVIOUS SHIFTS TO
LIMIT THUNDER TO THE CREST. WITH A STRENGTHENING MARINE LAYER IT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO GET DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

THE RELATIVELY COOL UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE DYING FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS ALSO WEAKENING...AS MOST OF THE JET ENERGY IN THE NE PAC
GOES TOWARD DEVELOPING A CUTOFF LOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO DECREASE A BIT THURSDAY...PERHAPS BECOMING MORE CONFINED
TO THE CASCADES. MEANWHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
WASHINGTON AND WESTERN CANADA...CREATING A WEAK REX BLOCK TYPE OF A
PATTERN WITH UPPER RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND AN UPPER LOW TO THE
SOUTH. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY BRING DRIER...SUNNIER...AND WARMER
WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND...WITH THE WARMING/DRYING TREND POSSIBLY
STARTING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. MAV MOS GUIDANCE ACTUALLY BRINGS MANY OF
OUR INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY... BUT
FOR NOW OUR FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH MID TO UPPER
70S.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS......(FRI NIGHT
THROUGH TUE)...OUR TREND OF CLOUDS/DAMP WEEKDAYS AND SUNNY/MILD
WEEKENDS CONTINUES. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION...WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES AND STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP A MORE JUNE
LIKE PATTERN...WITH LATE NIGHT/AM CLOUDS THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
WEAK FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON MON...BUT NOT MUCH IN WAY
OF ANY RAIN THREAT. MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW A
BIT. SO MON WILL BE BIT COOLER...WITH MORE IN WAY OF MORNING CLOUDS
THEN PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.   ROCKEY.

&&

.AVIATION...CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH
OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. COASTAL AREAS COVER A WIDE RANGE
OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES...FROM IFR TO VFR. INLAND AREAS ARE MAINLY
VFR AT 10Z...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. EXPECT
INCREASING MVFR CIGS INLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT A RETURN
TO VFR BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY IFR
TO MVFR...BUT IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CASCADES...WHICH
COULD RESULT IN LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER
THE CASCADES 20Z THROUGH 06Z THU.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR AS OF 09Z...BUT STARTING TO SEE AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS 015-025 IN THE VICINITY. EXPECT PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS
FROM 12Z THROUGH 18Z...THEN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. INCREASING THREAT OF
-SHRA THIS AFTERNOON.  WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
12Z THU. NW TO N WIND PATTERN TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS INCREASE A BIT
TODAY...WITH GUSTS VERY CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVER SRN WATERS.
MODELS SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS TO EASE JUST A BIT THU AFTERNOON...BUT
PICK UP AGAIN FRI.

TOTAL WAVE HEIGHTS ARE AROUND 6 TO 7 FT EARLY THIS MORNING AND
WILL HOVER IN THE 6 TO 9 FT RANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
PERSISTENT NW TO N WIND WILL RESULT IN A WIND-WAVE DOMINATED SEA
STATE...ULTIMATELY BECOMING FRESH SWELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO STEEP...CHOPPY CONDITIONS.
WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 041622
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
922 AM PDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with the threat for showers and
thunderstorms expanding east toward the Idaho Panhandle. Several
rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the region
tonight and into Thursday. Some storms will be capable of heavy
rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy conditions
will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update to add mention of light morning showers to the
forecast as elevated convection works its way up into the area
moving quickly from south to north at 30mph. Expectation is the
elevated layer upon which the convective showers is being
initiated on will continue to weaken and erode with daytime
heating giving a brief break between convection until the another
round of more intense convection moves into the area from the
south as well and having a greater influence on the forecast this
evening and overnight. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Moist southerly flow will bring widely scattered showers
and periods of thunderstorms across the region for the next 24-36
hours. Confidence is generally low whether any particular airport
will receive a t-storm but moderate to high for t-storm activity
in the region. Most activity will be high based today but this
will change slowly overnight and Thursday as the air mass
continues to moisten. Any storms that develop will bring the
potential for MVFR or lower visibility due to heavy rain...small
hail...and erratic wind gusts. Activity is expected to be in the
form of light showers this morning and early afternoon. Isolated
mountain thunderstorms are possible this afternoon then attention
will turn toward a cluster of showers and storms approaching from
the south around 23Z...tracking through the region 00-08Z. /sb




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  55  73  52  76  53 /  20  50  60  50  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  80  52  74  49  74  49 /  10  50  60  50  10  10
Pullman        77  51  70  48  74  48 /  50  50  50  50  10  10
Lewiston       83  56  76  52  79  53 /  20  40  40  50  20  20
Colville       81  50  70  45  79  46 /  20  40  70  50  10  10
Sandpoint      77  50  72  45  72  43 /  20  30  60  50  20  10
Kellogg        80  49  74  44  72  43 /  10  30  50  50  20  20
Moses Lake     81  53  75  49  81  52 /  20  60  40  20  10  10
Wenatchee      78  55  74  53  81  56 /  30  60  40  20  10  10
Omak           79  54  72  48  80  53 /  20  50  60  30  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 041622
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
922 AM PDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with the threat for showers and
thunderstorms expanding east toward the Idaho Panhandle. Several
rounds of showers and storms will be possible across the region
tonight and into Thursday. Some storms will be capable of heavy
rainfall...hail...and gusty winds. Improving but breezy conditions
will begin on Friday, lasting through the weekend.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update to add mention of light morning showers to the
forecast as elevated convection works its way up into the area
moving quickly from south to north at 30mph. Expectation is the
elevated layer upon which the convective showers is being
initiated on will continue to weaken and erode with daytime
heating giving a brief break between convection until the another
round of more intense convection moves into the area from the
south as well and having a greater influence on the forecast this
evening and overnight. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Moist southerly flow will bring widely scattered showers
and periods of thunderstorms across the region for the next 24-36
hours. Confidence is generally low whether any particular airport
will receive a t-storm but moderate to high for t-storm activity
in the region. Most activity will be high based today but this
will change slowly overnight and Thursday as the air mass
continues to moisten. Any storms that develop will bring the
potential for MVFR or lower visibility due to heavy rain...small
hail...and erratic wind gusts. Activity is expected to be in the
form of light showers this morning and early afternoon. Isolated
mountain thunderstorms are possible this afternoon then attention
will turn toward a cluster of showers and storms approaching from
the south around 23Z...tracking through the region 00-08Z. /sb




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        79  55  73  52  76  53 /  20  50  60  50  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  80  52  74  49  74  49 /  10  50  60  50  10  10
Pullman        77  51  70  48  74  48 /  50  50  50  50  10  10
Lewiston       83  56  76  52  79  53 /  20  40  40  50  20  20
Colville       81  50  70  45  79  46 /  20  40  70  50  10  10
Sandpoint      77  50  72  45  72  43 /  20  30  60  50  20  10
Kellogg        80  49  74  44  72  43 /  10  30  50  50  20  20
Moses Lake     81  53  75  49  81  52 /  20  60  40  20  10  10
Wenatchee      78  55  74  53  81  56 /  30  60  40  20  10  10
Omak           79  54  72  48  80  53 /  20  50  60  30  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 041601
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND
SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY FOR INCREASED
SUNSHINE AND A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A TROUGH WILL
INDUCE COOLER ONSHORE FLOW FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF A SPLIT UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. A STALLED N/S ORIENTED FRONTAL BAND
WILL BE STALLED OVER WRN WA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TODAY WITH MOISTURE
BEING ENTRAINED NWD FROM THE SRN STREAM LOW. RADAR SHOWS MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA COMPARED TO YESTERDAY BUT AMOUNTS SO FAR
ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AS EXPECTED. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WITH A SURGE OF
MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER WRN OREGON WILL LIFT NWD AND KEEP SHOWERS
GOING ACROSS WRN WA INTO TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS HAS STABILIZED WITH A
DEEP MARINE LAYER OVER WRN WA SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
INTERESTINGLY...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NORTHERLY INSTEAD FOR THE MORE
TYPICAL SOUTH FLOW. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY.

THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVER WRN WA THURSDAY MORNING AND EAST
OF THE CASCADES BY AFTERNOON. POPS WERE ALREADY CUT BACK ON THURSDAY
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR
LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE CASCADES. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO NOSE INTO B.C. NORTH OF OUR
AREA. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING TOO
DRAMATICALLY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE PAC NW FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER WRN WA
FRIDAY BROADEN TOWARD THE COAST ALLOWING FOR NORTHERLY OR OFFSHORE
FLOW. HIGHS SHOULD WARM 5-10 DEGREES FRIDAY REACHING WELL INTO THE
70S FOR MOST INTERIOR LOWLANDS. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH LATEST MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOW 80S ARE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. THE ECMWF CONTINUED TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA
BUT THE GFS SOLUTION HAS BEEN LEANING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION
WITH EACH RUN. WITH THAT IN MIND...ADJUSTED THE INHERITED MAX TEMPS
LOWER FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO LOWER 500 MB
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WAS ALSO INTRODUCED IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTH CASCADES
FOR MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS BEGAN TO DIVERGE WITH
SOME SOLUTIONS SHOWING A TROF OVER THE REGION AND OTHERS SHOWING A
RIDGE. THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY REFLECTED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
TWO CAMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON WITH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT SEEMS TO HAVE STALLED JUST
OFFSHORE. THE STRONGER PORTION OF THE TROUGH HAS CUT OFF INTO AN
UPPER LOW AND IS MOVING  INTO CALIF. THERE WAS AN AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIP MOVING NORTH FROM KPAE-KBLI AT 8AM WITH NOTHING ON THE RADAR
SOUTH OF SEATTLE...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST
OF THE CASCADE CREST OF WA AND ORE TODAY WITH JUST MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR WRN WA WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS FROM THE MARINE AIR THAT
PUSHED IN OVERNIGHT...THOSE CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT A NOTCH INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS IN TYPICAL FASHION. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MID AND
HIGHER LAYERS OF CLOUDS IN THAT PERSISTENT SLY FLOW ALOFT.

KSEA...WITH THE OLM-BLI GRADIENT AROUND -1MB THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
THAT THE BREEZE WILL REMAIN NLY ALL DAY AND THRU TNGT.
THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOWER PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE TIME OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES ARE ALSO LIKELY EACH EVENING IN THE
CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT PUGET SOUND AND HOOD
     CANAL.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




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