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000
FXUS66 KOTX 120619
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1019 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts into the Inland Northwest through tonight.
This will spread a chance of rain across much of the area. Snow
will generally fall only in the higher mountains. The exception
will be in the valleys near the north Cascades. A cold front
passes later Friday, with continued precipitation chances and
slightly lower snow levels. Unsettled weather will continue
through the weekend into early next week with valley rain, high
mountain snow and breezy winds expected. Temperatures will be
quite mild on Monday with many locations seeing highs in the mid
50s to low 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Pops were a bit too low with the last update so did another with
increased pops for the Spokane and Coeur d` Alene areas and
locations to the south under the influence of the warm frontal
rainfall tonight. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS: A warm front continues to move north through the
aviation area tonight spreading light rain on TAF sites with VFR
conditions prevailing for the most part. Behind the rain stratus
and fog development lower cigs/vsby to MVFR and possible IFR early
Friday morning. Conditions improving back to VFR for most areas
after 18z Friday but then a cold front passage spreads more rain
and shifts winds to the southwest after 00Z Saturday. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  47  34  45  35  46 /  90  50  60  40  60  30
Coeur d`Alene  37  47  36  45  34  45 /  90  60  70  60  70  50
Pullman        41  53  38  47  37  49 /  90  50  70  40  90  50
Lewiston       43  57  41  54  42  55 /  80  30  50  30  80  40
Colville       34  40  33  43  33  41 /  90  80  50  50  60  30
Sandpoint      34  40  34  41  33  40 /  90  80  90  60  70  60
Kellogg        36  42  35  39  33  40 /  90  60  90  80  90  80
Moses Lake     38  49  34  51  37  52 /  40  50  20  10  40  20
Wenatchee      34  44  33  46  33  46 /  50  40  20  10  50  20
Omak           34  42  30  41  30  39 /  80  60  20  20  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for Moses Lake
     Area-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Upper Columbia
     Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

     Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Tuesday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 120619
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1019 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts into the Inland Northwest through tonight.
This will spread a chance of rain across much of the area. Snow
will generally fall only in the higher mountains. The exception
will be in the valleys near the north Cascades. A cold front
passes later Friday, with continued precipitation chances and
slightly lower snow levels. Unsettled weather will continue
through the weekend into early next week with valley rain, high
mountain snow and breezy winds expected. Temperatures will be
quite mild on Monday with many locations seeing highs in the mid
50s to low 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Pops were a bit too low with the last update so did another with
increased pops for the Spokane and Coeur d` Alene areas and
locations to the south under the influence of the warm frontal
rainfall tonight. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS: A warm front continues to move north through the
aviation area tonight spreading light rain on TAF sites with VFR
conditions prevailing for the most part. Behind the rain stratus
and fog development lower cigs/vsby to MVFR and possible IFR early
Friday morning. Conditions improving back to VFR for most areas
after 18z Friday but then a cold front passage spreads more rain
and shifts winds to the southwest after 00Z Saturday. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  47  34  45  35  46 /  90  50  60  40  60  30
Coeur d`Alene  37  47  36  45  34  45 /  90  60  70  60  70  50
Pullman        41  53  38  47  37  49 /  90  50  70  40  90  50
Lewiston       43  57  41  54  42  55 /  80  30  50  30  80  40
Colville       34  40  33  43  33  41 /  90  80  50  50  60  30
Sandpoint      34  40  34  41  33  40 /  90  80  90  60  70  60
Kellogg        36  42  35  39  33  40 /  90  60  90  80  90  80
Moses Lake     38  49  34  51  37  52 /  40  50  20  10  40  20
Wenatchee      34  44  33  46  33  46 /  50  40  20  10  50  20
Omak           34  42  30  41  30  39 /  80  60  20  20  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for Moses Lake
     Area-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Upper Columbia
     Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

     Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Tuesday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 120619
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1019 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts into the Inland Northwest through tonight.
This will spread a chance of rain across much of the area. Snow
will generally fall only in the higher mountains. The exception
will be in the valleys near the north Cascades. A cold front
passes later Friday, with continued precipitation chances and
slightly lower snow levels. Unsettled weather will continue
through the weekend into early next week with valley rain, high
mountain snow and breezy winds expected. Temperatures will be
quite mild on Monday with many locations seeing highs in the mid
50s to low 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Pops were a bit too low with the last update so did another with
increased pops for the Spokane and Coeur d` Alene areas and
locations to the south under the influence of the warm frontal
rainfall tonight. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS: A warm front continues to move north through the
aviation area tonight spreading light rain on TAF sites with VFR
conditions prevailing for the most part. Behind the rain stratus
and fog development lower cigs/vsby to MVFR and possible IFR early
Friday morning. Conditions improving back to VFR for most areas
after 18z Friday but then a cold front passage spreads more rain
and shifts winds to the southwest after 00Z Saturday. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  47  34  45  35  46 /  90  50  60  40  60  30
Coeur d`Alene  37  47  36  45  34  45 /  90  60  70  60  70  50
Pullman        41  53  38  47  37  49 /  90  50  70  40  90  50
Lewiston       43  57  41  54  42  55 /  80  30  50  30  80  40
Colville       34  40  33  43  33  41 /  90  80  50  50  60  30
Sandpoint      34  40  34  41  33  40 /  90  80  90  60  70  60
Kellogg        36  42  35  39  33  40 /  90  60  90  80  90  80
Moses Lake     38  49  34  51  37  52 /  40  50  20  10  40  20
Wenatchee      34  44  33  46  33  46 /  50  40  20  10  50  20
Omak           34  42  30  41  30  39 /  80  60  20  20  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for Moses Lake
     Area-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Upper Columbia
     Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

     Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Tuesday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 120541
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
941 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts into the Inland Northwest through tonight.
This will spread a chance of rain across much of the area. Snow
will generally fall only in the higher mountains. The exception
will be in the valleys near the north Cascades. A cold front
passes later Friday, with continued precipitation chances and
slightly lower snow levels. Unsettled weather will continue
through the weekend into early next week with valley rain, high
mountain snow and breezy winds expected. Temperatures will be
quite mild on Monday with many locations seeing highs in the mid
50s to low 60s.



&&

.DISCUSSION...

Minor updates to forecast temperatures made this evening as the
forecast has a good handle on the light rain associated with the
warm front moving through the area tonight. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS: A warm front continues to move north through the
aviation area tonight spreading light rain on TAF sites with VFR
conditions prevailing for the most part. Behind the rain stratus
and fog development lower cigs/vsby to MVFR and possible IFR early
Friday morning. Conditions improving back to VFR for most areas
after 18z Friday but then a cold front passage spreads more rain
and shifts winds to the southwest after 00Z Saturday. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  47  34  45  35  46 /  60  50  60  40  60  30
Coeur d`Alene  37  47  36  45  34  45 /  60  60  70  60  70  50
Pullman        41  53  38  47  37  49 /  40  50  70  40  90  50
Lewiston       43  57  41  54  42  55 /  20  30  50  30  80  40
Colville       34  40  33  43  33  41 /  80  80  50  50  60  30
Sandpoint      34  40  34  41  33  40 /  80  80  90  60  70  60
Kellogg        36  42  35  39  33  40 /  70  60  90  80  90  80
Moses Lake     38  49  34  51  37  52 /  40  50  20  10  40  20
Wenatchee      34  44  33  46  33  46 /  50  40  20  10  50  20
Omak           34  42  30  41  30  39 /  80  60  20  20  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for Moses Lake
     Area-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Upper Columbia
     Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

     Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Tuesday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 120541
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
941 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts into the Inland Northwest through tonight.
This will spread a chance of rain across much of the area. Snow
will generally fall only in the higher mountains. The exception
will be in the valleys near the north Cascades. A cold front
passes later Friday, with continued precipitation chances and
slightly lower snow levels. Unsettled weather will continue
through the weekend into early next week with valley rain, high
mountain snow and breezy winds expected. Temperatures will be
quite mild on Monday with many locations seeing highs in the mid
50s to low 60s.



&&

.DISCUSSION...

Minor updates to forecast temperatures made this evening as the
forecast has a good handle on the light rain associated with the
warm front moving through the area tonight. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS: A warm front continues to move north through the
aviation area tonight spreading light rain on TAF sites with VFR
conditions prevailing for the most part. Behind the rain stratus
and fog development lower cigs/vsby to MVFR and possible IFR early
Friday morning. Conditions improving back to VFR for most areas
after 18z Friday but then a cold front passage spreads more rain
and shifts winds to the southwest after 00Z Saturday. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  47  34  45  35  46 /  60  50  60  40  60  30
Coeur d`Alene  37  47  36  45  34  45 /  60  60  70  60  70  50
Pullman        41  53  38  47  37  49 /  40  50  70  40  90  50
Lewiston       43  57  41  54  42  55 /  20  30  50  30  80  40
Colville       34  40  33  43  33  41 /  80  80  50  50  60  30
Sandpoint      34  40  34  41  33  40 /  80  80  90  60  70  60
Kellogg        36  42  35  39  33  40 /  70  60  90  80  90  80
Moses Lake     38  49  34  51  37  52 /  40  50  20  10  40  20
Wenatchee      34  44  33  46  33  46 /  50  40  20  10  50  20
Omak           34  42  30  41  30  39 /  80  60  20  20  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for Moses Lake
     Area-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Upper Columbia
     Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

     Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Tuesday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 120541
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
941 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts into the Inland Northwest through tonight.
This will spread a chance of rain across much of the area. Snow
will generally fall only in the higher mountains. The exception
will be in the valleys near the north Cascades. A cold front
passes later Friday, with continued precipitation chances and
slightly lower snow levels. Unsettled weather will continue
through the weekend into early next week with valley rain, high
mountain snow and breezy winds expected. Temperatures will be
quite mild on Monday with many locations seeing highs in the mid
50s to low 60s.



&&

.DISCUSSION...

Minor updates to forecast temperatures made this evening as the
forecast has a good handle on the light rain associated with the
warm front moving through the area tonight. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS: A warm front continues to move north through the
aviation area tonight spreading light rain on TAF sites with VFR
conditions prevailing for the most part. Behind the rain stratus
and fog development lower cigs/vsby to MVFR and possible IFR early
Friday morning. Conditions improving back to VFR for most areas
after 18z Friday but then a cold front passage spreads more rain
and shifts winds to the southwest after 00Z Saturday. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  47  34  45  35  46 /  60  50  60  40  60  30
Coeur d`Alene  37  47  36  45  34  45 /  60  60  70  60  70  50
Pullman        41  53  38  47  37  49 /  40  50  70  40  90  50
Lewiston       43  57  41  54  42  55 /  20  30  50  30  80  40
Colville       34  40  33  43  33  41 /  80  80  50  50  60  30
Sandpoint      34  40  34  41  33  40 /  80  80  90  60  70  60
Kellogg        36  42  35  39  33  40 /  70  60  90  80  90  80
Moses Lake     38  49  34  51  37  52 /  40  50  20  10  40  20
Wenatchee      34  44  33  46  33  46 /  50  40  20  10  50  20
Omak           34  42  30  41  30  39 /  80  60  20  20  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for Moses Lake
     Area-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Upper Columbia
     Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

     Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Tuesday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 120541
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
941 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts into the Inland Northwest through tonight.
This will spread a chance of rain across much of the area. Snow
will generally fall only in the higher mountains. The exception
will be in the valleys near the north Cascades. A cold front
passes later Friday, with continued precipitation chances and
slightly lower snow levels. Unsettled weather will continue
through the weekend into early next week with valley rain, high
mountain snow and breezy winds expected. Temperatures will be
quite mild on Monday with many locations seeing highs in the mid
50s to low 60s.



&&

.DISCUSSION...

Minor updates to forecast temperatures made this evening as the
forecast has a good handle on the light rain associated with the
warm front moving through the area tonight. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS: A warm front continues to move north through the
aviation area tonight spreading light rain on TAF sites with VFR
conditions prevailing for the most part. Behind the rain stratus
and fog development lower cigs/vsby to MVFR and possible IFR early
Friday morning. Conditions improving back to VFR for most areas
after 18z Friday but then a cold front passage spreads more rain
and shifts winds to the southwest after 00Z Saturday. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  47  34  45  35  46 /  60  50  60  40  60  30
Coeur d`Alene  37  47  36  45  34  45 /  60  60  70  60  70  50
Pullman        41  53  38  47  37  49 /  40  50  70  40  90  50
Lewiston       43  57  41  54  42  55 /  20  30  50  30  80  40
Colville       34  40  33  43  33  41 /  80  80  50  50  60  30
Sandpoint      34  40  34  41  33  40 /  80  80  90  60  70  60
Kellogg        36  42  35  39  33  40 /  70  60  90  80  90  80
Moses Lake     38  49  34  51  37  52 /  40  50  20  10  40  20
Wenatchee      34  44  33  46  33  46 /  50  40  20  10  50  20
Omak           34  42  30  41  30  39 /  80  60  20  20  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for Moses Lake
     Area-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Upper Columbia
     Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

     Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Tuesday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 120541
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
941 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts into the Inland Northwest through tonight.
This will spread a chance of rain across much of the area. Snow
will generally fall only in the higher mountains. The exception
will be in the valleys near the north Cascades. A cold front
passes later Friday, with continued precipitation chances and
slightly lower snow levels. Unsettled weather will continue
through the weekend into early next week with valley rain, high
mountain snow and breezy winds expected. Temperatures will be
quite mild on Monday with many locations seeing highs in the mid
50s to low 60s.



&&

.DISCUSSION...

Minor updates to forecast temperatures made this evening as the
forecast has a good handle on the light rain associated with the
warm front moving through the area tonight. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS: A warm front continues to move north through the
aviation area tonight spreading light rain on TAF sites with VFR
conditions prevailing for the most part. Behind the rain stratus
and fog development lower cigs/vsby to MVFR and possible IFR early
Friday morning. Conditions improving back to VFR for most areas
after 18z Friday but then a cold front passage spreads more rain
and shifts winds to the southwest after 00Z Saturday. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  47  34  45  35  46 /  60  50  60  40  60  30
Coeur d`Alene  37  47  36  45  34  45 /  60  60  70  60  70  50
Pullman        41  53  38  47  37  49 /  40  50  70  40  90  50
Lewiston       43  57  41  54  42  55 /  20  30  50  30  80  40
Colville       34  40  33  43  33  41 /  80  80  50  50  60  30
Sandpoint      34  40  34  41  33  40 /  80  80  90  60  70  60
Kellogg        36  42  35  39  33  40 /  70  60  90  80  90  80
Moses Lake     38  49  34  51  37  52 /  40  50  20  10  40  20
Wenatchee      34  44  33  46  33  46 /  50  40  20  10  50  20
Omak           34  42  30  41  30  39 /  80  60  20  20  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for Moses Lake
     Area-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Upper Columbia
     Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

     Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Tuesday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley.

&&

$$


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000
FXUS66 KSEW 120456
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
856 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO WESTERN WASHINGTON
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. A PAIR OF WARM FRONTS WILL BRING RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION IS PUSHING A
WARM FRONT NE ACROSS W WA THIS EVENING. IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BACK
EDGE OF THE WARM FRONT OFFSHORE ALONG ROUGHLY 128W. RADAR SHOWS
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS ALL OF W WA...BUT RATHER THAN CONTINUOUS
WIDESPREAD RAIN...IT IS MORE BROKEN UP WITH SMALL HOLES SUGGESTING
THE RAIN WILL BE MORE INTERMITTENT. THE 00Z GFS TAKES THE BACK EDGE
OF THE WARM FRONT NE ACROSS ACROSS W WA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BETWEEN 09Z-
12Z.

THE COLD FRONT...OR WHAT THE MODELS DEVELOP IN TO A COLD FRONT...IS
CURRENTLY A WEAK LITTLE FEATURE OFFSHORE ALONG 130W AT 03Z/7 PM.
MODELS BRING A 300 MB JET STREAK ENE OVER OREGON ON FRIDAY AROUND
12Z WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE SLOWLY
ADVANCING WEAK FRONT. THE GFS IN PARTICULAR STRENGTHENS THE FRONT AS
IT MOVES OVER THE COAST AND THEN INLAND 12Z-18Z. THE GFS THEN BREAKS
THE FRONT UP AS IT MOVES OVER THE CASCADES 21Z-00Z. QPF SHOULD BE
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OVER THE LOWLANDS...GIVE OR TAKE A TENTH...AND
COULD BE UP AROUND A HALF INCH ALONG THE COAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
ABOVE 6000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH JUST RAIN IN THE
CASCADE PASSES.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE MODELS HAVE
REMAINED CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...CURRENTLY OFFSHORE BETWEEN 135W-145W...INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS HAS SPED UP TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND NOW HAS THE TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE CASCADES BY 09Z. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE...LIFTED INDICES ARE NOT LOW ENOUGH TO CONSIDER
THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW LEVELS LOWER WITH THE COOLER AIR IN THE
TROUGH...BUT ONLY DROP DOWN TO ABOUT 3500 FEET LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW AT THE
PASSES.

THE MODELS DEVELOP A BROAD FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OFFSHORE...UPSTREAM OF FRIDAY NIGHTS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. STRONG W
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL BRING A LARGE AREA OF WARM
ADVECTION OVER W WA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE INITIAL RAIN
SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT...BUT SHOULD INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING AS THE
WARM FRONT NEARS THE COAST. GFS 925 MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS SUGGEST
A WARM FRONT PASSAGE ALONG THE COAST AROUND 06Z.

RIGHT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT IS ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF WARM ADVECTION
THAT SHOULD KEEP IT RAINY THROUGH SUNDAY. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 245 PM AFD...ALL MODELS
MOVE THE CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
THOUGH THEY DIFFER IN THE DETAILS SUCH AS HOW FAST AND HOW FAR
NORTH. THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT HEAVY RAIN COULD CONTINUE OVER THE
OLYMPICS AND NORTH CASCADES FOR AWHILE.
RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD LESS WET SOLUTIONS FOR
WASHINGTON WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN CANADA. ON TUESDAY
MODELS BRING THE NOW LESS ENERGETIC FRONT BACK SOUTH THROUGH
WASHINGTON. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND WETTER WITH THIS TRANSITION. FOR
NOW HAVE MOSTLY CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR THE
EXTREME NORTH.

THE GFS AND EURO ARE TRULY AT ODDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THEY
DIFFER IN THE BROAD PATTERN AS WELL AS THE DETAILS. HAVE KEPT BROAD
BRUSH CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH CASCADES
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD CAUSE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER AND
POSSIBLY A FEW RIVERS IN THE NORTH CASCADES TO FLOOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.
AIR MASS STABLE BECOMING SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE BEHIND COLD FRONT FRIDAY
MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT WITH THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WIDE VARIETY OF CEILINGS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A POCKET OF IFR BETWEEN SHELTON AND OLYMPIA AND
MORE IFR CEILINGS ALONG THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA WITH THE LOW LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CREATING SOME UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AT PORT ANGELES. MOST
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA CEILINGS IN THE LOW END OF VFR...3500-4500
FEET. CEILINGS LOWERING BRIEFLY WITH THE WARM FRONT PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS EXPECT WITH THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING. ONSHORE
FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS LIFTING BACK UP INTO
THE 3500-5000 FOOT RANGE.

KSEA...CEILINGS NEAR 3500 FEET INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CEILINGS LOWERING
AFTER 12Z DOWN TO NEAR 2000 FEET RIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z FRI BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SOUTHEAST WIND 6 TO 10 KNOTS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY 8 TO 12 KNOTS 15Z-18Z FRIDAY. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE COAST...ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN ADMIRALTY INLET LATER THIS
EVENING.

POST FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH FLOW IS LIKELY OVER PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS FLOW ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE
OLYMPICS AND A MESO LOW FORMS OVER THE NE OLYMPIC PENINSULA.

A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO MOST OF THE WATERS SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FELTON/ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER
     10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
     SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF
     JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR EAST ENTRANCE
     U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
     INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PST FRIDAY
     FOR ADMIRALTY INLET.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 120456
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
856 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO WESTERN WASHINGTON
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. A PAIR OF WARM FRONTS WILL BRING RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION IS PUSHING A
WARM FRONT NE ACROSS W WA THIS EVENING. IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BACK
EDGE OF THE WARM FRONT OFFSHORE ALONG ROUGHLY 128W. RADAR SHOWS
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS ALL OF W WA...BUT RATHER THAN CONTINUOUS
WIDESPREAD RAIN...IT IS MORE BROKEN UP WITH SMALL HOLES SUGGESTING
THE RAIN WILL BE MORE INTERMITTENT. THE 00Z GFS TAKES THE BACK EDGE
OF THE WARM FRONT NE ACROSS ACROSS W WA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BETWEEN 09Z-
12Z.

THE COLD FRONT...OR WHAT THE MODELS DEVELOP IN TO A COLD FRONT...IS
CURRENTLY A WEAK LITTLE FEATURE OFFSHORE ALONG 130W AT 03Z/7 PM.
MODELS BRING A 300 MB JET STREAK ENE OVER OREGON ON FRIDAY AROUND
12Z WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE SLOWLY
ADVANCING WEAK FRONT. THE GFS IN PARTICULAR STRENGTHENS THE FRONT AS
IT MOVES OVER THE COAST AND THEN INLAND 12Z-18Z. THE GFS THEN BREAKS
THE FRONT UP AS IT MOVES OVER THE CASCADES 21Z-00Z. QPF SHOULD BE
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OVER THE LOWLANDS...GIVE OR TAKE A TENTH...AND
COULD BE UP AROUND A HALF INCH ALONG THE COAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
ABOVE 6000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH JUST RAIN IN THE
CASCADE PASSES.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE MODELS HAVE
REMAINED CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...CURRENTLY OFFSHORE BETWEEN 135W-145W...INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS HAS SPED UP TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND NOW HAS THE TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE CASCADES BY 09Z. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE...LIFTED INDICES ARE NOT LOW ENOUGH TO CONSIDER
THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW LEVELS LOWER WITH THE COOLER AIR IN THE
TROUGH...BUT ONLY DROP DOWN TO ABOUT 3500 FEET LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW AT THE
PASSES.

THE MODELS DEVELOP A BROAD FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OFFSHORE...UPSTREAM OF FRIDAY NIGHTS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. STRONG W
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL BRING A LARGE AREA OF WARM
ADVECTION OVER W WA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE INITIAL RAIN
SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT...BUT SHOULD INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING AS THE
WARM FRONT NEARS THE COAST. GFS 925 MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS SUGGEST
A WARM FRONT PASSAGE ALONG THE COAST AROUND 06Z.

RIGHT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT IS ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF WARM ADVECTION
THAT SHOULD KEEP IT RAINY THROUGH SUNDAY. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 245 PM AFD...ALL MODELS
MOVE THE CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
THOUGH THEY DIFFER IN THE DETAILS SUCH AS HOW FAST AND HOW FAR
NORTH. THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT HEAVY RAIN COULD CONTINUE OVER THE
OLYMPICS AND NORTH CASCADES FOR AWHILE.
RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD LESS WET SOLUTIONS FOR
WASHINGTON WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN CANADA. ON TUESDAY
MODELS BRING THE NOW LESS ENERGETIC FRONT BACK SOUTH THROUGH
WASHINGTON. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND WETTER WITH THIS TRANSITION. FOR
NOW HAVE MOSTLY CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR THE
EXTREME NORTH.

THE GFS AND EURO ARE TRULY AT ODDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THEY
DIFFER IN THE BROAD PATTERN AS WELL AS THE DETAILS. HAVE KEPT BROAD
BRUSH CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH CASCADES
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD CAUSE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER AND
POSSIBLY A FEW RIVERS IN THE NORTH CASCADES TO FLOOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.
AIR MASS STABLE BECOMING SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE BEHIND COLD FRONT FRIDAY
MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT WITH THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WIDE VARIETY OF CEILINGS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A POCKET OF IFR BETWEEN SHELTON AND OLYMPIA AND
MORE IFR CEILINGS ALONG THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA WITH THE LOW LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CREATING SOME UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AT PORT ANGELES. MOST
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA CEILINGS IN THE LOW END OF VFR...3500-4500
FEET. CEILINGS LOWERING BRIEFLY WITH THE WARM FRONT PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS EXPECT WITH THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING. ONSHORE
FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS LIFTING BACK UP INTO
THE 3500-5000 FOOT RANGE.

KSEA...CEILINGS NEAR 3500 FEET INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CEILINGS LOWERING
AFTER 12Z DOWN TO NEAR 2000 FEET RIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z FRI BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SOUTHEAST WIND 6 TO 10 KNOTS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY 8 TO 12 KNOTS 15Z-18Z FRIDAY. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE COAST...ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN ADMIRALTY INLET LATER THIS
EVENING.

POST FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH FLOW IS LIKELY OVER PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS FLOW ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE
OLYMPICS AND A MESO LOW FORMS OVER THE NE OLYMPIC PENINSULA.

A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO MOST OF THE WATERS SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FELTON/ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER
     10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
     SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF
     JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR EAST ENTRANCE
     U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
     INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PST FRIDAY
     FOR ADMIRALTY INLET.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
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000
FXUS66 KSEW 120456
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
856 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO WESTERN WASHINGTON
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. A PAIR OF WARM FRONTS WILL BRING RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION IS PUSHING A
WARM FRONT NE ACROSS W WA THIS EVENING. IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BACK
EDGE OF THE WARM FRONT OFFSHORE ALONG ROUGHLY 128W. RADAR SHOWS
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS ALL OF W WA...BUT RATHER THAN CONTINUOUS
WIDESPREAD RAIN...IT IS MORE BROKEN UP WITH SMALL HOLES SUGGESTING
THE RAIN WILL BE MORE INTERMITTENT. THE 00Z GFS TAKES THE BACK EDGE
OF THE WARM FRONT NE ACROSS ACROSS W WA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BETWEEN 09Z-
12Z.

THE COLD FRONT...OR WHAT THE MODELS DEVELOP IN TO A COLD FRONT...IS
CURRENTLY A WEAK LITTLE FEATURE OFFSHORE ALONG 130W AT 03Z/7 PM.
MODELS BRING A 300 MB JET STREAK ENE OVER OREGON ON FRIDAY AROUND
12Z WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE SLOWLY
ADVANCING WEAK FRONT. THE GFS IN PARTICULAR STRENGTHENS THE FRONT AS
IT MOVES OVER THE COAST AND THEN INLAND 12Z-18Z. THE GFS THEN BREAKS
THE FRONT UP AS IT MOVES OVER THE CASCADES 21Z-00Z. QPF SHOULD BE
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OVER THE LOWLANDS...GIVE OR TAKE A TENTH...AND
COULD BE UP AROUND A HALF INCH ALONG THE COAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
ABOVE 6000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH JUST RAIN IN THE
CASCADE PASSES.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE MODELS HAVE
REMAINED CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...CURRENTLY OFFSHORE BETWEEN 135W-145W...INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS HAS SPED UP TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND NOW HAS THE TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE CASCADES BY 09Z. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE...LIFTED INDICES ARE NOT LOW ENOUGH TO CONSIDER
THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW LEVELS LOWER WITH THE COOLER AIR IN THE
TROUGH...BUT ONLY DROP DOWN TO ABOUT 3500 FEET LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW AT THE
PASSES.

THE MODELS DEVELOP A BROAD FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OFFSHORE...UPSTREAM OF FRIDAY NIGHTS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. STRONG W
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL BRING A LARGE AREA OF WARM
ADVECTION OVER W WA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE INITIAL RAIN
SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT...BUT SHOULD INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING AS THE
WARM FRONT NEARS THE COAST. GFS 925 MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS SUGGEST
A WARM FRONT PASSAGE ALONG THE COAST AROUND 06Z.

RIGHT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT IS ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF WARM ADVECTION
THAT SHOULD KEEP IT RAINY THROUGH SUNDAY. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 245 PM AFD...ALL MODELS
MOVE THE CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
THOUGH THEY DIFFER IN THE DETAILS SUCH AS HOW FAST AND HOW FAR
NORTH. THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT HEAVY RAIN COULD CONTINUE OVER THE
OLYMPICS AND NORTH CASCADES FOR AWHILE.
RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD LESS WET SOLUTIONS FOR
WASHINGTON WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN CANADA. ON TUESDAY
MODELS BRING THE NOW LESS ENERGETIC FRONT BACK SOUTH THROUGH
WASHINGTON. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND WETTER WITH THIS TRANSITION. FOR
NOW HAVE MOSTLY CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR THE
EXTREME NORTH.

THE GFS AND EURO ARE TRULY AT ODDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THEY
DIFFER IN THE BROAD PATTERN AS WELL AS THE DETAILS. HAVE KEPT BROAD
BRUSH CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH CASCADES
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD CAUSE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER AND
POSSIBLY A FEW RIVERS IN THE NORTH CASCADES TO FLOOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.
AIR MASS STABLE BECOMING SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE BEHIND COLD FRONT FRIDAY
MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT WITH THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WIDE VARIETY OF CEILINGS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A POCKET OF IFR BETWEEN SHELTON AND OLYMPIA AND
MORE IFR CEILINGS ALONG THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA WITH THE LOW LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CREATING SOME UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AT PORT ANGELES. MOST
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA CEILINGS IN THE LOW END OF VFR...3500-4500
FEET. CEILINGS LOWERING BRIEFLY WITH THE WARM FRONT PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS EXPECT WITH THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING. ONSHORE
FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS LIFTING BACK UP INTO
THE 3500-5000 FOOT RANGE.

KSEA...CEILINGS NEAR 3500 FEET INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CEILINGS LOWERING
AFTER 12Z DOWN TO NEAR 2000 FEET RIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z FRI BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SOUTHEAST WIND 6 TO 10 KNOTS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY 8 TO 12 KNOTS 15Z-18Z FRIDAY. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE COAST...ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN ADMIRALTY INLET LATER THIS
EVENING.

POST FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH FLOW IS LIKELY OVER PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS FLOW ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE
OLYMPICS AND A MESO LOW FORMS OVER THE NE OLYMPIC PENINSULA.

A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO MOST OF THE WATERS SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FELTON/ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER
     10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
     SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF
     JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR EAST ENTRANCE
     U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
     INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PST FRIDAY
     FOR ADMIRALTY INLET.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

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  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 120448 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
830 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MILD AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN INTO NORTHWEST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WILL INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO BELOW THE
CASCADES PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD
STEADIER RAIN AND PRODUCE RISING SNOW LEVELS LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PRODUCE MORE VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR SHOWED MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OVERRUNNING A
WARM FRONT THIS EVENING HAD LIFTED N INTO WA....LEAVING MOST OF THE
INTERIOR OF NW OREGON DRY LATE THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT OFF THE
COAST WAS POISED TO PUSH INLAND...ACCORDING TO MOST MODELS FRI
MORNING. ON SATELLITE THE COLD FRONT APPEARED TO LACK DEEP MOISTURE
THIS EVENING AS EVIDENCED BY A LACK OF COLD TOPPED CLOUDS...BUT A
WAVE MOVING UP OFF THE S OREGON COAST SUGGESTED AT LEAST A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN TO MOVE BACK IN LATER TONIGHT...SO WILL NEED TO
KEEP A MENTION FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE DOWN THE
S INTERIOR....BUT WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAINING NEAR
THE COAST.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED... A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG 140W OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR 130W WILL
PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF RAIN FRIDAY MORNING...AND ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER TO NEAR 4500-
5000 FT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LAG A BIT AND SKIRT OUR NORTHERN ZONES
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER FURTHER...GENERALLY INTO THE 3500-4000 FT
RANGE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW APPEAR LIKELY.
FARTHER SOUTH...EVEN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT MIGHT BE A
STRETCH IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES.

ANY REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END FAIRLY QUICKLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TEMPORARILY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND STEADY RAIN INTO
THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND LIKELY CONTINUE TO BRING
RAIN TO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY BE SLOW
TO PUSH OUT OF THE CASCADES SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN MODEL QPF...THERE
APPEARS A GOOD CHANCE THAT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES
AND PERHAPS THE NORTH OREGON CASCADES ABOVE 4000-5000 FT WILL SEE
ENOUGH SNOW...SOMEWHERE ON THE ORDER OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...TO RESULT IN
WINTER WX ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE TO 7000 FT OR HIGHER
ON SUNDAY. /NEUMAN

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING
OVER THE PAC NW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD BRING A BRIEF BREAK FROM
THE RAIN MONDAY...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SOME CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
DUE TO LINGERING INSTABILITY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO
RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY AND WILL LIKELY PUSH
ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY
BRINGING MORE RAIN. CASCADE SNOW LOOKS TO RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 3500 FT. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
LOWERING SNOW LEVELS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH TEMPS TRENDING COOLER
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /64

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS AND VIS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH VALLEY HAVE
DROPPED TO MOSTLY IFR THIS EVENING AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT. WINDS OUT OF THE EAST IN THE NORTH VALLEY SHOULD KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE NEAR THE GORGE BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS FROM KHIO
NORTH AND WEST TO BE MOSTLY IFR TONIGHT. THE COAST WILL LIKELY
HAVE MVFR CIGS OR VIS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT MVFR VSBYS
AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS WITH A WEAK FRONT FRIDAY MORNING...THEN
RISING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AND MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS. GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE EAST NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE
AND AROUND KTTD. BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...THE BUILDING LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL WILL DOMINATE THE
WATERS TONIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 14 FT BY FRIDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL
STAY ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW-END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS CONTINUES TONIGHT...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL
SOME CONCERN THAT AREAS WITHIN 10 NM WILL NOT SEE FREQUENT GUSTS
ABOVE 20 KT. BEST CHANCE FOR INCREASED GUSTS WILL BE LATER
TONIGHT WHEN THE FRONT NEARS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE
GUSTS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BOWEN/TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 120446
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
830 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MILD AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN INTO NORTHWEST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WILL INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO BELOW THE
CASCADES PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD
STEADIER RAIN AND PRODUCE RISING SNOW LEVELS LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PRODUCE MORE VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR SHOWED MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OVERRUNNING A
WARM FRONT THIS EVENING HAD LIFTED N INTO WA....LEAVING MOST OF THE
INTERIOR OF NW OREGON DRY LATE THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT OFF THE
COAST WAS POISED TO PUSH INLAND...ACCORDING TO MOST MODELS FRI
MORNING. ON SATELLITE THE COLD FRONT APPEARED TO LACK DEEP MOISTURE
THIS EVENING AS EVIDENCED BY A LACK OF COLD TOPPED CLOUDS...BUT A
WAVE MOVING UP OFF THE S OREGON COAST SUGGESTED AT LEAST A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN TO MOVE BACK IN LATER TONIGHT...SO WILL NEED TO
KEEP A MENTION FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE DOWN THE
S INTERIOR....BUT WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAINING NEAR
THE COAST.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED... A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG 140W OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR 130W WILL
PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF RAIN FRIDAY MORNING...AND ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER TO NEAR 4500-
5000 FT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LAG A BIT AND SKIRT OUR NORTHERN ZONES
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER FURTHER...GENERALLY INTO THE 3500-4000 FT
RANGE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW APPEAR LIKELY.
FARTHER SOUTH...EVEN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT MIGHT BE A
STRETCH IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES.

ANY REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END FAIRLY QUICKLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TEMPORARILY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND STEADY RAIN INTO
THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND LIKELY CONTINUE TO BRING
RAIN TO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY BE SLOW
TO PUSH OUT OF THE CASCADES SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN MODEL QPF...THERE
APPEARS A GOOD CHANCE THAT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES
AND PERHAPS THE NORTH OREGON CASCADES ABOVE 4000-5000 FT WILL SEE
ENOUGH SNOW...SOMEWHERE ON THE ORDER OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...TO RESULT IN
WINTER WX ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE TO 7000 FT OR HIGHER
ON SUNDAY. /NEUMAN

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING
OVER THE PAC NW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD BRING A BRIEF BREAK FROM
THE RAIN MONDAY...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SOME CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
DUE TO LINGERING INSTABILITY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO
RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY AND WILL LIKELY PUSH
ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY
BRINGING MORE RAIN. CASCADE SNOW LOOKS TO RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 3500 FT. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
LOWERING SNOW LEVELS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH TEMPS TRENDING COOLER
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /64

&&


&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 112358
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
358 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts into the Inland Northwest through tonight.
This will spread a chance of rain across much of the area. Snow
will generally fall only in the higher mountains. The exception
will be in the valleys near the north Cascades. A cold front
passes later Friday, with continued precipitation chances and
slightly lower snow levels. Unsettled weather will continue
through the weekend into early next week with valley rain, high
mountain snow and breezy winds expected. Temperatures will be
quite mild on Monday with many locations seeing highs in the mid
50s to low 60s.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday: The Inland NW will be in a wetter
pattern as a frontal wave moves through the region. Tonight a warm
front draped across southern WA and the lower ID Panhandle lifts
toward the northern mountains. Deepening and moistening isentropic
ascent will lead to broad precipitation threat across the Inland
NW this evening. However the highest risk will be along and north
of I-90 and lowest toward the Palouse into the L-C Valley.
Precipitation will largely fall as rain in the valleys, leaving
snow for the higher mountains. The main exception remains near the
Methow Valley where the warm air is not too deep and precipitation
may fall as a rain/snow mix or all snow. This may result in an
inch or so of snow through the night. Otherwise models don`t show
the precipitation to be too significant in terms of amounts, with
most areas seeing somewhere around a tenth of an inch through
Friday morning. Also, while PoPs will be relatively high, the
precipitation may be periodic, meaning it doesn`t look organized
enough to say the entire period will see steady rain. Between the
precipitation there will be the potential for fog. Yet confidence
in coverage and intensity in low, so it left as patchy.

Going into Friday the warm front lingers near the northern-tier,
while a cold front comes toward the Cascades in the afternoon. In
the morning some models show drier air across south-central and
southeastern WA and the lower Panhandle. Others are not as ready
to bring drier air in. A threat of precipitation will continue
across region, however the highest risk across the Cascades and
northern mountain zones. Between Friday afternoon and evening the
cold front crosses the Cascades and advances toward the ID/WA
border. This will revitalize the threat of precipitation The
Cascades will seeing the highest risk in the afternoon, while
chances wane there through the evening. Chances will increase
farther east through the afternoon and peak in the evening.
Between late evening and overnight the broader threat retreats to
the mountains, while the lowlands dry out. The incoming cold front
will also lead to some breezy conditions by Friday afternoon,
generally highest over south-central to southeastern WA into the
Idaho Palouse. Speeds on the order of 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 25
mph will be possible.

On Saturday an upper trough continues to migrate through the
eastern third of WA and north ID early, while the next warm front
starts to impinge on the Cascades in the afternoon. This set-up
will keep the the threat of showers alive across the region. With
the highest risk in the Cascades and the northeast WA and ID
Panhandle mountains, as well the rising terrain over the eastern
Columbia Basin. The lowest risk will be in the lee of the Cascades
and deeper Columbia Basin. Winds will be a bit stronger Saturday
afternoon, especially south-central and southeast and eastern-
central Washington into the Idaho Palouse. Speeds of 10 to 20 mph,
with gusts to 30 mph will be possible. This should allow for most
areas to come out of the Air Stagnation Advisory. The main
exception will be near the Cascade valleys/Okanogan Valley where
winds and mixing will be less. /J. Cote`

Saturday night through Thursday...The models are in relatively
good agreement through about 12z Wednesday before breaking down
Wednesday and Thursday. Zonal flow or weak ridging will be over
the region through the forecast period. The westerly flow will tap
into deep Pacific moisture with several weak waves that are
expected to move through the main flow. This will result in a warm
and fairly wet forecast through the extended period. Snow levels
Saturday night will be around 3k feet for the north and 4k feet
across the south, but rapidly increase by Sunday afternoon to 5-6k
feet and to 6-7k feet by Monday. So the higher elevations of the
Cascades and the northern and Panhandle mountains could see 3-6
inches of wet snow Saturday night, otherwise precipitation will be
as rain with high elevations snow the remainder of the week.
Precipitation amounts from Saturday night through Tuesday could
reach 0.25-0.50 for the lower elevations and 0.50-1.00 or a littlemore
for the mountains. Near the Cascade crest 1.0 to 1.5 inches will
be possible. Temperatures on Sunday will be in the 40s and 50s,
which will be about 5 degrees above normal. Then the temperatures
will increase Monday and Tuesday by another 5-10 degrees. The warm
temperatures and rain will almost certainly result in good snow
melt and rises on area rivers.

We will have to pay special attention to Monday. Temperatures are
expected to 10-15 degrees above normal and dew points will be
well into the 40s and 50s. A surface low will develop east of the
Continental Divide and with weak surface high pressure along the
coast the surface gradient will increase. In addition 850mb winds
will increase to around 35-40kts. This will result in southwest
winds 20-30 mph with gust 30-40 mph across the mountain tops, the
Columbia basin and the Palouse area. Gusty winds, warm
temperatures and high dew points will result in rapid snow melt.
The focus will be across the Waterville Plateau, some of he
mountain valleys, and across the Idaho Palouse where the low
elevation snow will likely melt at a rapid rate. Model hydrographs
show rapid rises on almost all rivers and streams, but areas of
concern will be the Palouse basin, and the Coeur D`Alene basin
where the rivers may bump up against action stage. Up on the
Waterville Plateau there is plenty of snow to melt and run off.
Palisades creek will see some significant rises. In addition snow
melt will likely cause nuisance flooding along secondary roads and
especially in area where culverts cross the road. We will issue a
hydrologic outlook to keep up with situational awareness through
the weekend.

Wednesday and Thursday...The models break down as far as
consistency goes. Some models try to bring an upper level trough
through the region late Wednesday and Thursday, while others want
to under-cut the ridge with the low going into California ans
still others have something some where in between. I chose to keep
a low end chance of rain or showers in the forecast for now with
temperatures cooling off but remaining above normal. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS: A warm front will move north through the forecast area
tonight...deepening the moisture over the region and increasing
the chance for light rain at the TAF sites. Light rain currently
falling across the western zones will slowly track east across the
region through the evening. Conditions will be mainly VFR ahead of
and with the precipitation. Behind the rain stratus and fog
development lower cigs/vsby to MVFR and possible IFR early Friday
morning. Conditions improving back to VFR for most areas after
18z Friday. Tobin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  47  34  45  35  46 /  60  50  60  40  60  40
Coeur d`Alene  37  47  36  45  34  45 /  60  60  70  60  70  60
Pullman        41  53  38  47  37  49 /  30  50  70  40  90  60
Lewiston       43  57  41  54  42  55 /  20  30  50  30  80  50
Colville       34  40  33  43  33  41 /  80  80  50  50  60  30
Sandpoint      34  40  34  41  33  40 /  80  80  90  60  70  60
Kellogg        36  42  35  39  33  40 /  70  60  90  80  90  80
Moses Lake     38  49  34  51  37  52 /  50  50  20  10  40  20
Wenatchee      34  44  33  46  33  46 /  80  40  20  10  50  30
Omak           35  42  30  41  30  39 /  80  60  20  20  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for Moses Lake
     Area-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Upper Columbia
     Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

     Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Tuesday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 112358
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
358 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts into the Inland Northwest through tonight.
This will spread a chance of rain across much of the area. Snow
will generally fall only in the higher mountains. The exception
will be in the valleys near the north Cascades. A cold front
passes later Friday, with continued precipitation chances and
slightly lower snow levels. Unsettled weather will continue
through the weekend into early next week with valley rain, high
mountain snow and breezy winds expected. Temperatures will be
quite mild on Monday with many locations seeing highs in the mid
50s to low 60s.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday: The Inland NW will be in a wetter
pattern as a frontal wave moves through the region. Tonight a warm
front draped across southern WA and the lower ID Panhandle lifts
toward the northern mountains. Deepening and moistening isentropic
ascent will lead to broad precipitation threat across the Inland
NW this evening. However the highest risk will be along and north
of I-90 and lowest toward the Palouse into the L-C Valley.
Precipitation will largely fall as rain in the valleys, leaving
snow for the higher mountains. The main exception remains near the
Methow Valley where the warm air is not too deep and precipitation
may fall as a rain/snow mix or all snow. This may result in an
inch or so of snow through the night. Otherwise models don`t show
the precipitation to be too significant in terms of amounts, with
most areas seeing somewhere around a tenth of an inch through
Friday morning. Also, while PoPs will be relatively high, the
precipitation may be periodic, meaning it doesn`t look organized
enough to say the entire period will see steady rain. Between the
precipitation there will be the potential for fog. Yet confidence
in coverage and intensity in low, so it left as patchy.

Going into Friday the warm front lingers near the northern-tier,
while a cold front comes toward the Cascades in the afternoon. In
the morning some models show drier air across south-central and
southeastern WA and the lower Panhandle. Others are not as ready
to bring drier air in. A threat of precipitation will continue
across region, however the highest risk across the Cascades and
northern mountain zones. Between Friday afternoon and evening the
cold front crosses the Cascades and advances toward the ID/WA
border. This will revitalize the threat of precipitation The
Cascades will seeing the highest risk in the afternoon, while
chances wane there through the evening. Chances will increase
farther east through the afternoon and peak in the evening.
Between late evening and overnight the broader threat retreats to
the mountains, while the lowlands dry out. The incoming cold front
will also lead to some breezy conditions by Friday afternoon,
generally highest over south-central to southeastern WA into the
Idaho Palouse. Speeds on the order of 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 25
mph will be possible.

On Saturday an upper trough continues to migrate through the
eastern third of WA and north ID early, while the next warm front
starts to impinge on the Cascades in the afternoon. This set-up
will keep the the threat of showers alive across the region. With
the highest risk in the Cascades and the northeast WA and ID
Panhandle mountains, as well the rising terrain over the eastern
Columbia Basin. The lowest risk will be in the lee of the Cascades
and deeper Columbia Basin. Winds will be a bit stronger Saturday
afternoon, especially south-central and southeast and eastern-
central Washington into the Idaho Palouse. Speeds of 10 to 20 mph,
with gusts to 30 mph will be possible. This should allow for most
areas to come out of the Air Stagnation Advisory. The main
exception will be near the Cascade valleys/Okanogan Valley where
winds and mixing will be less. /J. Cote`

Saturday night through Thursday...The models are in relatively
good agreement through about 12z Wednesday before breaking down
Wednesday and Thursday. Zonal flow or weak ridging will be over
the region through the forecast period. The westerly flow will tap
into deep Pacific moisture with several weak waves that are
expected to move through the main flow. This will result in a warm
and fairly wet forecast through the extended period. Snow levels
Saturday night will be around 3k feet for the north and 4k feet
across the south, but rapidly increase by Sunday afternoon to 5-6k
feet and to 6-7k feet by Monday. So the higher elevations of the
Cascades and the northern and Panhandle mountains could see 3-6
inches of wet snow Saturday night, otherwise precipitation will be
as rain with high elevations snow the remainder of the week.
Precipitation amounts from Saturday night through Tuesday could
reach 0.25-0.50 for the lower elevations and 0.50-1.00 or a littlemore
for the mountains. Near the Cascade crest 1.0 to 1.5 inches will
be possible. Temperatures on Sunday will be in the 40s and 50s,
which will be about 5 degrees above normal. Then the temperatures
will increase Monday and Tuesday by another 5-10 degrees. The warm
temperatures and rain will almost certainly result in good snow
melt and rises on area rivers.

We will have to pay special attention to Monday. Temperatures are
expected to 10-15 degrees above normal and dew points will be
well into the 40s and 50s. A surface low will develop east of the
Continental Divide and with weak surface high pressure along the
coast the surface gradient will increase. In addition 850mb winds
will increase to around 35-40kts. This will result in southwest
winds 20-30 mph with gust 30-40 mph across the mountain tops, the
Columbia basin and the Palouse area. Gusty winds, warm
temperatures and high dew points will result in rapid snow melt.
The focus will be across the Waterville Plateau, some of he
mountain valleys, and across the Idaho Palouse where the low
elevation snow will likely melt at a rapid rate. Model hydrographs
show rapid rises on almost all rivers and streams, but areas of
concern will be the Palouse basin, and the Coeur D`Alene basin
where the rivers may bump up against action stage. Up on the
Waterville Plateau there is plenty of snow to melt and run off.
Palisades creek will see some significant rises. In addition snow
melt will likely cause nuisance flooding along secondary roads and
especially in area where culverts cross the road. We will issue a
hydrologic outlook to keep up with situational awareness through
the weekend.

Wednesday and Thursday...The models break down as far as
consistency goes. Some models try to bring an upper level trough
through the region late Wednesday and Thursday, while others want
to under-cut the ridge with the low going into California ans
still others have something some where in between. I chose to keep
a low end chance of rain or showers in the forecast for now with
temperatures cooling off but remaining above normal. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS: A warm front will move north through the forecast area
tonight...deepening the moisture over the region and increasing
the chance for light rain at the TAF sites. Light rain currently
falling across the western zones will slowly track east across the
region through the evening. Conditions will be mainly VFR ahead of
and with the precipitation. Behind the rain stratus and fog
development lower cigs/vsby to MVFR and possible IFR early Friday
morning. Conditions improving back to VFR for most areas after
18z Friday. Tobin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  47  34  45  35  46 /  60  50  60  40  60  40
Coeur d`Alene  37  47  36  45  34  45 /  60  60  70  60  70  60
Pullman        41  53  38  47  37  49 /  30  50  70  40  90  60
Lewiston       43  57  41  54  42  55 /  20  30  50  30  80  50
Colville       34  40  33  43  33  41 /  80  80  50  50  60  30
Sandpoint      34  40  34  41  33  40 /  80  80  90  60  70  60
Kellogg        36  42  35  39  33  40 /  70  60  90  80  90  80
Moses Lake     38  49  34  51  37  52 /  50  50  20  10  40  20
Wenatchee      34  44  33  46  33  46 /  80  40  20  10  50  30
Omak           35  42  30  41  30  39 /  80  60  20  20  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for Moses Lake
     Area-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Upper Columbia
     Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

     Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Tuesday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 112358
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
358 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts into the Inland Northwest through tonight.
This will spread a chance of rain across much of the area. Snow
will generally fall only in the higher mountains. The exception
will be in the valleys near the north Cascades. A cold front
passes later Friday, with continued precipitation chances and
slightly lower snow levels. Unsettled weather will continue
through the weekend into early next week with valley rain, high
mountain snow and breezy winds expected. Temperatures will be
quite mild on Monday with many locations seeing highs in the mid
50s to low 60s.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday: The Inland NW will be in a wetter
pattern as a frontal wave moves through the region. Tonight a warm
front draped across southern WA and the lower ID Panhandle lifts
toward the northern mountains. Deepening and moistening isentropic
ascent will lead to broad precipitation threat across the Inland
NW this evening. However the highest risk will be along and north
of I-90 and lowest toward the Palouse into the L-C Valley.
Precipitation will largely fall as rain in the valleys, leaving
snow for the higher mountains. The main exception remains near the
Methow Valley where the warm air is not too deep and precipitation
may fall as a rain/snow mix or all snow. This may result in an
inch or so of snow through the night. Otherwise models don`t show
the precipitation to be too significant in terms of amounts, with
most areas seeing somewhere around a tenth of an inch through
Friday morning. Also, while PoPs will be relatively high, the
precipitation may be periodic, meaning it doesn`t look organized
enough to say the entire period will see steady rain. Between the
precipitation there will be the potential for fog. Yet confidence
in coverage and intensity in low, so it left as patchy.

Going into Friday the warm front lingers near the northern-tier,
while a cold front comes toward the Cascades in the afternoon. In
the morning some models show drier air across south-central and
southeastern WA and the lower Panhandle. Others are not as ready
to bring drier air in. A threat of precipitation will continue
across region, however the highest risk across the Cascades and
northern mountain zones. Between Friday afternoon and evening the
cold front crosses the Cascades and advances toward the ID/WA
border. This will revitalize the threat of precipitation The
Cascades will seeing the highest risk in the afternoon, while
chances wane there through the evening. Chances will increase
farther east through the afternoon and peak in the evening.
Between late evening and overnight the broader threat retreats to
the mountains, while the lowlands dry out. The incoming cold front
will also lead to some breezy conditions by Friday afternoon,
generally highest over south-central to southeastern WA into the
Idaho Palouse. Speeds on the order of 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 25
mph will be possible.

On Saturday an upper trough continues to migrate through the
eastern third of WA and north ID early, while the next warm front
starts to impinge on the Cascades in the afternoon. This set-up
will keep the the threat of showers alive across the region. With
the highest risk in the Cascades and the northeast WA and ID
Panhandle mountains, as well the rising terrain over the eastern
Columbia Basin. The lowest risk will be in the lee of the Cascades
and deeper Columbia Basin. Winds will be a bit stronger Saturday
afternoon, especially south-central and southeast and eastern-
central Washington into the Idaho Palouse. Speeds of 10 to 20 mph,
with gusts to 30 mph will be possible. This should allow for most
areas to come out of the Air Stagnation Advisory. The main
exception will be near the Cascade valleys/Okanogan Valley where
winds and mixing will be less. /J. Cote`

Saturday night through Thursday...The models are in relatively
good agreement through about 12z Wednesday before breaking down
Wednesday and Thursday. Zonal flow or weak ridging will be over
the region through the forecast period. The westerly flow will tap
into deep Pacific moisture with several weak waves that are
expected to move through the main flow. This will result in a warm
and fairly wet forecast through the extended period. Snow levels
Saturday night will be around 3k feet for the north and 4k feet
across the south, but rapidly increase by Sunday afternoon to 5-6k
feet and to 6-7k feet by Monday. So the higher elevations of the
Cascades and the northern and Panhandle mountains could see 3-6
inches of wet snow Saturday night, otherwise precipitation will be
as rain with high elevations snow the remainder of the week.
Precipitation amounts from Saturday night through Tuesday could
reach 0.25-0.50 for the lower elevations and 0.50-1.00 or a littlemore
for the mountains. Near the Cascade crest 1.0 to 1.5 inches will
be possible. Temperatures on Sunday will be in the 40s and 50s,
which will be about 5 degrees above normal. Then the temperatures
will increase Monday and Tuesday by another 5-10 degrees. The warm
temperatures and rain will almost certainly result in good snow
melt and rises on area rivers.

We will have to pay special attention to Monday. Temperatures are
expected to 10-15 degrees above normal and dew points will be
well into the 40s and 50s. A surface low will develop east of the
Continental Divide and with weak surface high pressure along the
coast the surface gradient will increase. In addition 850mb winds
will increase to around 35-40kts. This will result in southwest
winds 20-30 mph with gust 30-40 mph across the mountain tops, the
Columbia basin and the Palouse area. Gusty winds, warm
temperatures and high dew points will result in rapid snow melt.
The focus will be across the Waterville Plateau, some of he
mountain valleys, and across the Idaho Palouse where the low
elevation snow will likely melt at a rapid rate. Model hydrographs
show rapid rises on almost all rivers and streams, but areas of
concern will be the Palouse basin, and the Coeur D`Alene basin
where the rivers may bump up against action stage. Up on the
Waterville Plateau there is plenty of snow to melt and run off.
Palisades creek will see some significant rises. In addition snow
melt will likely cause nuisance flooding along secondary roads and
especially in area where culverts cross the road. We will issue a
hydrologic outlook to keep up with situational awareness through
the weekend.

Wednesday and Thursday...The models break down as far as
consistency goes. Some models try to bring an upper level trough
through the region late Wednesday and Thursday, while others want
to under-cut the ridge with the low going into California ans
still others have something some where in between. I chose to keep
a low end chance of rain or showers in the forecast for now with
temperatures cooling off but remaining above normal. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS: A warm front will move north through the forecast area
tonight...deepening the moisture over the region and increasing
the chance for light rain at the TAF sites. Light rain currently
falling across the western zones will slowly track east across the
region through the evening. Conditions will be mainly VFR ahead of
and with the precipitation. Behind the rain stratus and fog
development lower cigs/vsby to MVFR and possible IFR early Friday
morning. Conditions improving back to VFR for most areas after
18z Friday. Tobin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  47  34  45  35  46 /  60  50  60  40  60  40
Coeur d`Alene  37  47  36  45  34  45 /  60  60  70  60  70  60
Pullman        41  53  38  47  37  49 /  30  50  70  40  90  60
Lewiston       43  57  41  54  42  55 /  20  30  50  30  80  50
Colville       34  40  33  43  33  41 /  80  80  50  50  60  30
Sandpoint      34  40  34  41  33  40 /  80  80  90  60  70  60
Kellogg        36  42  35  39  33  40 /  70  60  90  80  90  80
Moses Lake     38  49  34  51  37  52 /  50  50  20  10  40  20
Wenatchee      34  44  33  46  33  46 /  80  40  20  10  50  30
Omak           35  42  30  41  30  39 /  80  60  20  20  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for Moses Lake
     Area-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Upper Columbia
     Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

     Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Tuesday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 112258
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
258 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MILD AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN TO NORTHWEST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO BELOW THE
CASCADES PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD
STEADIER RAIN AND PRODUCE RISING SNOW LEVELS LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PRODUCE MORE VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A MILD AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING OFF AND ON LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF A LINE EXTENDING BETWEEN
TILLAMOOK AND MOUNT HOOD. THERE IS EVEN ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY
THAT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE REMAINING
SHOWERS LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS CLEARER SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO WORK THEIR WAY
NORTHWARD INTO LANE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A
BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER AND CLOUDS TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF PORTLAND. POPS WERE SPLIT INTO 3 HOURLY GRIDS TO TRY AND SHOW
TRENDS IN RAIN CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG 140W OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR
130W WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN FRIDAY MORNING...AND ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO
LOWER TO NEAR 4500-5000 FT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LAG A BIT AND SKIRT OUR
NORTHERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE AN UPTICK IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER FURTHER...GENERALLY INTO THE
3500-4000 FT RANGE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST ACROSS
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW APPEAR
LIKELY. FARTHER SOUTH...EVEN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT MIGHT
BE A STRETCH IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES.

ANY REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END FAIRLY QUICKLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TEMPORARILY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND STEADY RAIN INTO
THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND LIKELY CONTINUE TO BRING
RAIN TO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY BE SLOW
TO PUSH OUT OF THE CASCADES SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN MODEL QPF...THERE
APPEARS A GOOD CHANCE THAT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES
AND PERHAPS THE NORTH OREGON CASCADES ABOVE 4000-5000 FT WILL SEE
ENOUGH SNOW...SOMEWHERE ON THE ORDER OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...TO RESULT IN
WINTER WX ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE TO 7000 FT OR HIGHER
ON SUNDAY. /NEUMAN

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FLAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER THE PAC NW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD
BRING A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN MONDAY...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SOME
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST DUE TO LINGERING INSTABILITY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ON
TUESDAY AND WILL LIKELY PUSH ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE RAIN. CASCADE SNOW LOOKS TO
RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 3500
FT. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH TEMPS TRENDING COOLER
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /64

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH CIGS RANGING
BETWEEN 5K AND 9K. THE COAST WILL LIKELY HAVE MVFR CIGS THIS
EVENING...AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. COULD SEE BRIEF FOG AT
KHIO OR KSPB OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR SHOULD OVERALL DOMINATE. EXPECT
MVFR VSBYS AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS WITH A WEAK FRONT FRIDAY
MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AND HIGH CLOUDS. TJ

&&

.MARINE...A MIXED SWELL CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING WITH
A BUILDING LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL AND A SUBSIDING 11 SEC W SWELL.
THE BUILDING LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS LATE
TONIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 14 FT BY FRIDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL STAY ABOVE
10 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS
CONTINUES TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT AREAS WITHIN 10
NM WILL NOT SEE FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT. 30 AM THIS MORNING...AND
TO 14 FT WITH BREAKERS LIKELY DURING THE STRONG EBB AROUND 645 PM
TONIGHT.HAVE DELAYED THE START TIME OF THE ADVISORY IN THE INNER
WATERS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AS THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR INCREASED
GUSTS WILL BE WHEN THE FRONT NEARS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE
GUSTS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 PM TONIGHT TO 4 AM PST
     FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST FRIDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 112258
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
258 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MILD AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN TO NORTHWEST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO BELOW THE
CASCADES PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD
STEADIER RAIN AND PRODUCE RISING SNOW LEVELS LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PRODUCE MORE VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A MILD AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING OFF AND ON LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF A LINE EXTENDING BETWEEN
TILLAMOOK AND MOUNT HOOD. THERE IS EVEN ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY
THAT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE REMAINING
SHOWERS LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS CLEARER SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO WORK THEIR WAY
NORTHWARD INTO LANE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A
BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER AND CLOUDS TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF PORTLAND. POPS WERE SPLIT INTO 3 HOURLY GRIDS TO TRY AND SHOW
TRENDS IN RAIN CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG 140W OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR
130W WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN FRIDAY MORNING...AND ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO
LOWER TO NEAR 4500-5000 FT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LAG A BIT AND SKIRT OUR
NORTHERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE AN UPTICK IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER FURTHER...GENERALLY INTO THE
3500-4000 FT RANGE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST ACROSS
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW APPEAR
LIKELY. FARTHER SOUTH...EVEN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT MIGHT
BE A STRETCH IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES.

ANY REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END FAIRLY QUICKLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TEMPORARILY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND STEADY RAIN INTO
THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND LIKELY CONTINUE TO BRING
RAIN TO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY BE SLOW
TO PUSH OUT OF THE CASCADES SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN MODEL QPF...THERE
APPEARS A GOOD CHANCE THAT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES
AND PERHAPS THE NORTH OREGON CASCADES ABOVE 4000-5000 FT WILL SEE
ENOUGH SNOW...SOMEWHERE ON THE ORDER OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...TO RESULT IN
WINTER WX ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE TO 7000 FT OR HIGHER
ON SUNDAY. /NEUMAN

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FLAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER THE PAC NW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD
BRING A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN MONDAY...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SOME
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST DUE TO LINGERING INSTABILITY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ON
TUESDAY AND WILL LIKELY PUSH ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE RAIN. CASCADE SNOW LOOKS TO
RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 3500
FT. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH TEMPS TRENDING COOLER
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /64

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH CIGS RANGING
BETWEEN 5K AND 9K. THE COAST WILL LIKELY HAVE MVFR CIGS THIS
EVENING...AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. COULD SEE BRIEF FOG AT
KHIO OR KSPB OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR SHOULD OVERALL DOMINATE. EXPECT
MVFR VSBYS AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS WITH A WEAK FRONT FRIDAY
MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AND HIGH CLOUDS. TJ

&&

.MARINE...A MIXED SWELL CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING WITH
A BUILDING LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL AND A SUBSIDING 11 SEC W SWELL.
THE BUILDING LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS LATE
TONIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 14 FT BY FRIDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL STAY ABOVE
10 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS
CONTINUES TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT AREAS WITHIN 10
NM WILL NOT SEE FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT. 30 AM THIS MORNING...AND
TO 14 FT WITH BREAKERS LIKELY DURING THE STRONG EBB AROUND 645 PM
TONIGHT.HAVE DELAYED THE START TIME OF THE ADVISORY IN THE INNER
WATERS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AS THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR INCREASED
GUSTS WILL BE WHEN THE FRONT NEARS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE
GUSTS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 PM TONIGHT TO 4 AM PST
     FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST FRIDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 112258
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
258 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MILD AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN TO NORTHWEST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO BELOW THE
CASCADES PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD
STEADIER RAIN AND PRODUCE RISING SNOW LEVELS LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PRODUCE MORE VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A MILD AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING OFF AND ON LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF A LINE EXTENDING BETWEEN
TILLAMOOK AND MOUNT HOOD. THERE IS EVEN ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY
THAT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE REMAINING
SHOWERS LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS CLEARER SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO WORK THEIR WAY
NORTHWARD INTO LANE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A
BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER AND CLOUDS TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF PORTLAND. POPS WERE SPLIT INTO 3 HOURLY GRIDS TO TRY AND SHOW
TRENDS IN RAIN CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG 140W OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR
130W WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN FRIDAY MORNING...AND ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO
LOWER TO NEAR 4500-5000 FT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LAG A BIT AND SKIRT OUR
NORTHERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE AN UPTICK IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER FURTHER...GENERALLY INTO THE
3500-4000 FT RANGE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST ACROSS
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW APPEAR
LIKELY. FARTHER SOUTH...EVEN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT MIGHT
BE A STRETCH IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES.

ANY REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END FAIRLY QUICKLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TEMPORARILY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND STEADY RAIN INTO
THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND LIKELY CONTINUE TO BRING
RAIN TO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY BE SLOW
TO PUSH OUT OF THE CASCADES SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN MODEL QPF...THERE
APPEARS A GOOD CHANCE THAT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES
AND PERHAPS THE NORTH OREGON CASCADES ABOVE 4000-5000 FT WILL SEE
ENOUGH SNOW...SOMEWHERE ON THE ORDER OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...TO RESULT IN
WINTER WX ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE TO 7000 FT OR HIGHER
ON SUNDAY. /NEUMAN

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FLAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER THE PAC NW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD
BRING A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN MONDAY...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SOME
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST DUE TO LINGERING INSTABILITY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ON
TUESDAY AND WILL LIKELY PUSH ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE RAIN. CASCADE SNOW LOOKS TO
RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 3500
FT. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH TEMPS TRENDING COOLER
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /64

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH CIGS RANGING
BETWEEN 5K AND 9K. THE COAST WILL LIKELY HAVE MVFR CIGS THIS
EVENING...AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. COULD SEE BRIEF FOG AT
KHIO OR KSPB OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR SHOULD OVERALL DOMINATE. EXPECT
MVFR VSBYS AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS WITH A WEAK FRONT FRIDAY
MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AND HIGH CLOUDS. TJ

&&

.MARINE...A MIXED SWELL CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING WITH
A BUILDING LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL AND A SUBSIDING 11 SEC W SWELL.
THE BUILDING LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS LATE
TONIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 14 FT BY FRIDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL STAY ABOVE
10 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS
CONTINUES TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT AREAS WITHIN 10
NM WILL NOT SEE FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT. 30 AM THIS MORNING...AND
TO 14 FT WITH BREAKERS LIKELY DURING THE STRONG EBB AROUND 645 PM
TONIGHT.HAVE DELAYED THE START TIME OF THE ADVISORY IN THE INNER
WATERS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AS THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR INCREASED
GUSTS WILL BE WHEN THE FRONT NEARS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE
GUSTS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 PM TONIGHT TO 4 AM PST
     FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST FRIDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 112245
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
245 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. A PAIR OF WARM FRONTS WILL BRING RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN ALL OVER THE PLACE THOUGH IT
HAS BEEN PRETTY LIGHT...ONLY A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN MOST
PLACES. RAIN RATES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. BY 18Z FRIDAY A COLD FRONT IS ON THE
COAST. IT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL
BE 6000 FEET OR HIGHER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES.

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES BY FRIDAY NIGHT GIVING SHOWERS. SATURDAY
MORNING LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY EXCEPT FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. THE SNOW
LEVEL WILL DIP TO 3000-4000 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON THE COAST AND RAIN WILL
SPREAD INLAND AS THE SNOW LEVEL RISES BACK TO 6000 FEET OR SO
SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL FALL AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND 50 BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO THE MID
AND UPPER 50S ON SUNDAY. BURKE

.LONG TERM...ALL MODELS MOVE THE CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE NORTH ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THOUGH THEY DIFFER IN THE DETAILS SUCH AS
HOW FAST AND HOW FAR NORTH. THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT HEAVY RAIN
COULD CONTINUE OVER THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH CASCADES FOR AWHILE.
RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD LESS WET SOLUTIONS FOR
WASHINGTON WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN CANADA. ON TUESDAY
MODELS BRING THE NOW LESS ENERGETIC FRONT BACK SOUTH THROUGH
WASHINGTON. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND WETTER WITH THIS TRANSITION. FOR
NOW HAVE MOSTLY CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR THE
EXTREME NORTH.

THE GFS AND EURO ARE TRULY AT ODDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THEY
DIFFER IN THE BROAD PATTERN AS WELL AS THE DETAILS. HAVE KEPT BROAD
BRUSH CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH CASCADES
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD CAUSE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER AND
POSSIBLY A FEW RIVERS IN THE NORTH CASCADES TO FLOOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE. A WARM
FRONT SITS FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF OREGON NW TO A 985 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 51N 141W. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING.. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRI MORNING.

OFFSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT CONTINUES
TO GIVE MAINLY VFR CEILINGS TO THE INTERIOR. AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN -RA ARE NOW OCCURRING OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA AND IN THE SOUTH INTERIOR FROM ABOUT KGRF AND KOLM
SOUTHWARD. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR IN THE
INTERIOR THIS EVENING AS RAIN SPREADS NE WITH THE WARM FRONT.
ALBRECHT

KSEA...P6SM -RA OVC050 WILL DETERIORATE TO 4-5SM -RA BKN025 OVC040
ABOUT 02Z AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z FRI BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND AS FLOW ALOFT
INTERACTS WITH THE OLYMPICS GIVING CLEARING AT TIMES AROUND THE
TERMINAL. WIND NE 4-6 KT WILL BECOME SELY ABOUT 06Z THEN SLY 8-12KT
ABOUT 15Z-18Z FRI. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST OREGON COAST TO
A 985 MB LOW NEAR 51N 141W WILL LIFT NE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE WATERS
FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
COAST AND THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT AND WILL SOON START AT THE
EAST ENTRANCE AND IN THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO ADMIRALTY INLET ABOUT 10 PM
THIS EVENING.

THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL FOLLOW FRI AFTERNOON OR EVENING INTO SAT MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH FLOW IS LIKELY OVER PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS FLOW ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE
OLYMPICS AND A MESO LOW FORMS OVER THE NE OLYMPIC PENINSULA.

A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO MOST OF THE WATERS SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER
     10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
     SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF
     JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR EAST ENTRANCE
     U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
     INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PST FRIDAY
     FOR ADMIRALTY INLET.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 112245
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
245 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. A PAIR OF WARM FRONTS WILL BRING RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN ALL OVER THE PLACE THOUGH IT
HAS BEEN PRETTY LIGHT...ONLY A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN MOST
PLACES. RAIN RATES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. BY 18Z FRIDAY A COLD FRONT IS ON THE
COAST. IT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL
BE 6000 FEET OR HIGHER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES.

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES BY FRIDAY NIGHT GIVING SHOWERS. SATURDAY
MORNING LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY EXCEPT FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. THE SNOW
LEVEL WILL DIP TO 3000-4000 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON THE COAST AND RAIN WILL
SPREAD INLAND AS THE SNOW LEVEL RISES BACK TO 6000 FEET OR SO
SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL FALL AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND 50 BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO THE MID
AND UPPER 50S ON SUNDAY. BURKE

.LONG TERM...ALL MODELS MOVE THE CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE NORTH ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THOUGH THEY DIFFER IN THE DETAILS SUCH AS
HOW FAST AND HOW FAR NORTH. THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT HEAVY RAIN
COULD CONTINUE OVER THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH CASCADES FOR AWHILE.
RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD LESS WET SOLUTIONS FOR
WASHINGTON WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN CANADA. ON TUESDAY
MODELS BRING THE NOW LESS ENERGETIC FRONT BACK SOUTH THROUGH
WASHINGTON. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND WETTER WITH THIS TRANSITION. FOR
NOW HAVE MOSTLY CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR THE
EXTREME NORTH.

THE GFS AND EURO ARE TRULY AT ODDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THEY
DIFFER IN THE BROAD PATTERN AS WELL AS THE DETAILS. HAVE KEPT BROAD
BRUSH CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH CASCADES
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD CAUSE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER AND
POSSIBLY A FEW RIVERS IN THE NORTH CASCADES TO FLOOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE. A WARM
FRONT SITS FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF OREGON NW TO A 985 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 51N 141W. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING.. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRI MORNING.

OFFSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT CONTINUES
TO GIVE MAINLY VFR CEILINGS TO THE INTERIOR. AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN -RA ARE NOW OCCURRING OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA AND IN THE SOUTH INTERIOR FROM ABOUT KGRF AND KOLM
SOUTHWARD. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR IN THE
INTERIOR THIS EVENING AS RAIN SPREADS NE WITH THE WARM FRONT.
ALBRECHT

KSEA...P6SM -RA OVC050 WILL DETERIORATE TO 4-5SM -RA BKN025 OVC040
ABOUT 02Z AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z FRI BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND AS FLOW ALOFT
INTERACTS WITH THE OLYMPICS GIVING CLEARING AT TIMES AROUND THE
TERMINAL. WIND NE 4-6 KT WILL BECOME SELY ABOUT 06Z THEN SLY 8-12KT
ABOUT 15Z-18Z FRI. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST OREGON COAST TO
A 985 MB LOW NEAR 51N 141W WILL LIFT NE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE WATERS
FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
COAST AND THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT AND WILL SOON START AT THE
EAST ENTRANCE AND IN THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO ADMIRALTY INLET ABOUT 10 PM
THIS EVENING.

THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL FOLLOW FRI AFTERNOON OR EVENING INTO SAT MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH FLOW IS LIKELY OVER PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS FLOW ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE
OLYMPICS AND A MESO LOW FORMS OVER THE NE OLYMPIC PENINSULA.

A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO MOST OF THE WATERS SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER
     10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
     SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF
     JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR EAST ENTRANCE
     U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
     INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PST FRIDAY
     FOR ADMIRALTY INLET.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

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000
FXUS66 KOTX 112215
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
215 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts into the Inland Northwest through tonight.
This will spread a chance of rain across much of the area. Snow
will generally fall only in the higher mountains. The exception
will be in the valleys near the north Cascades. A cold front
passes later Friday, with continued precipitation chances and
slightly lower snow levels. Unsettled weather will continue
through the weekend into early next week with valley rain, high
mountain snow and breezy winds expected. Temperatures will be
quite mild on Monday with many locations seeing highs in the mid
50s to low 60s.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday: The Inland NW will be in a wetter
pattern as a frontal wave moves through the region. Tonight a warm
front draped across southern WA and the lower ID Panhandle lifts
toward the northern mountains. Deepening and moistening isentropic
ascent will lead to broad precipitation threat across the Inland
NW this evening. However the highest risk will be along and north
of I-90 and lowest toward the Palouse into the L-C Valley.
Precipitation will largely fall as rain in the valleys, leaving
snow for the higher mountains. The main exception remains near the
Methow Valley where the warm air is not too deep and precipitation
may fall as a rain/snow mix or all snow. This may result in an
inch or so of snow through the night. Otherwise models don`t show
the precipitation to be too significant in terms of amounts, with
most areas seeing somewhere around a tenth of an inch through
Friday morning. Also, while PoPs will be relatively high, the
precipitation may be periodic, meaning it doesn`t look organized
enough to say the entire period will see steady rain. Between the
precipitation there will be the potential for fog. Yet confidence
in coverage and intensity in low, so it left as patchy.

Going into Friday the warm front lingers near the northern-tier,
while a cold front comes toward the Cascades in the afternoon. In
the morning some models show drier air across south-central and
southeastern WA and the lower Panhandle. Others are not as ready
to bring drier air in. A threat of precipitation will continue
across region, however the highest risk across the Cascades and
northern mountain zones. Between Friday afternoon and evening the
cold front crosses the Cascades and advances toward the ID/WA
border. This will revitalize the threat of precipitation The
Cascades will seeing the highest risk in the afternoon, while
chances wane there through the evening. Chances will increase
farther east through the afternoon and peak in the evening.
Between late evening and overnight the broader threat retreats to
the mountains, while the lowlands dry out. The incoming cold front
will also lead to some breezy conditions by Friday afternoon,
generally highest over south-central to southeastern WA into the
Idaho Palouse. Speeds on the order of 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 25
mph will be possible.

On Saturday an upper trough continues to migrate through the
eastern third of WA and north ID early, while the next warm front
starts to impinge on the Cascades in the afternoon. This set-up
will keep the the threat of showers alive across the region. With
the highest risk in the Cascades and the northeast WA and ID
Panhandle mountains, as well the rising terrain over the eastern
Columbia Basin. The lowest risk will be in the lee of the Cascades
and deeper Columbia Basin. Winds will be a bit stronger Saturday
afternoon, especially south-central and southeast and eastern-
central Washington into the Idaho Palouse. Speeds of 10 to 20 mph,
with gusts to 30 mph will be possible. This should allow for most
areas to come out of the Air Stagnation Advisory. The main
exception will be near the Cascade valleys/Okanogan Valley where
winds and mixing will be less. /J. Cote`

Saturday night through Thursday...The models are in relatively
good agreement through about 12z Wednesday before breaking down
Wednesday and Thursday. Zonal flow or weak ridging will be over
the region through the forecast period. The westerly flow will tap
into deep Pacific moisture with several weak waves that are
expected to move through the main flow. This will result in a warm
and fairly wet forecast through the extended period. Snow levels
Saturday night will be around 3k feet for the north and 4k feet
across the south, but rapidly increase by Sunday afternoon to 5-6k
feet and to 6-7k feet by Monday. So the higher elevations of the
Cascades and the northern and Panhandle mountains could see 3-6
inches of wet snow Saturday night, otherwise precipitation will be
as rain with high elevations snow the remainder of the week.
Precipitation amounts from Saturday night through Tuesday could
reach 0.25-0.50 for the lower elevations and 0.50-1.00 or a liitle
more for the mountains. Near the Cascade crest 1.0 to 1.5 inches
will be possible. Temperatures on Sunday will be in the 40s and
50s, which will be about 5 degrees above normal. Then the
temperatures will increase Monday and Tuesday by another 5-10
degrees. The warm temperatures and rain will almost certainly
result in good snow melt and rises on area rivers.

We will have to pay special attention to Monday. Temperatures are
expected to 10-15 degrees above normal and dew points will be
well into the 40s and 50s. A surface low will develop east of the
Continental Divide and with weak surface high pressure along the
coast the surface gradient will increase. In addition 850mb winds
will increase to around 35-40kts. This will result in southwest
winds 20-30 mph with gust 30-40 mph across the mountain tops, the
Columbia basin and the Palouse area. Gusty winds, warm
temperatures and high dew points will result in rapid snow melt.
The focus will be across the Waterville Plateau, some of he
mountain valleys, and across the Idaho Palouse where the low
elevation snow will likely melt at a rapid rate. Model hydrographs
show rapid rises on almost all rivers and streams, but areas of
concern will be the Palouse basin, and the Coeur D`Alene basin
where the rivers may bump up against action stage. Up on the
Waterville Plateau there is plenty of snow to melt and run off.
Palisades creek will see some significant rises. In addition snow
melt will likely cause nuisance flooding along secondary roads and
especially in area where culverts cross the road. We will issue a
hydrologic outlook to keep up with situational awareness through
the weekend.

Wednesday and Thursday...The models break down as far as
consistency goes. Some models try to bring an upper level trough
through the region late Wednesday and Thursday, while others want
to under-cut the ridge with the low going into California ans
still others have something some where in between. I chose to keep
a low end chance of rain or showers in the forecast for now with
temperatures cooling off but remaining above normal. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS: Little change to the previous thinking for the TAFs
over the next 24 hours. Deep moisture will ride up the backside of
the ridge as warm front moved into the region and will result in
increasing chance of light precipitation across the western TAF
sites by this afternoon and the easter TAF sites by this evening.
Conditions for KCOE-KSFF-KGEG corridor have improved early this
afternoon as stratus/fog is beginning to dissipate with VFR
conditions expected until 03-04z. Then increasing moisture and
chances for precipitaiton will again lower conditions to MVFR/IFR
and possibly LIFR through the night. For KLWS-KPUW mainly VFR
conditions will be in place through 18z Friday. Some -shra is
possible between 02z-12z with a lowering deck but still VFR.
Further to the west conditions will remain VFR at KMWH-KEAT with
the deck lowering to 050-070. Precipitation chances will increase
after 02z with cigs/vsby dropping down to MVFR and and briefly
IFR. Then fog and stratus will likely form near KEAT with IFR
cigs/vsby after 12-14z. Tobin



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  47  34  45  35  46 /  60  50  60  40  60  40
Coeur d`Alene  37  47  36  45  34  45 /  60  60  70  60  70  60
Pullman        41  53  38  47  37  49 /  30  50  70  40  90  60
Lewiston       43  57  41  54  42  55 /  20  30  50  30  80  50
Colville       34  40  33  43  33  41 /  80  80  50  50  60  30
Sandpoint      34  40  34  41  33  40 /  80  80  90  60  70  60
Kellogg        36  42  35  39  33  40 /  70  60  90  80  90  80
Moses Lake     38  49  34  51  37  52 /  50  50  20  10  40  20
Wenatchee      34  44  33  46  33  46 /  80  40  20  10  50  30
Omak           35  42  30  41  30  39 /  80  60  20  20  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for Moses Lake
     Area-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Upper Columbia
     Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

     Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Tuesday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 112104
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
104 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
...Updated aviation discussion...

A warm front lifts into the Inland Northwest through
tonight. This will spreading a chance of rain across much of the
area. Snow will generally fall only in the higher mountains. The
except near will in the valleys near the north Cascades. A cold
front passes later Friday, with continued precipitation chances
and slightly lower snow levels. Unsettled weather will continue
through the weekend into early next week with valley rain, high
mountain snow and breezy winds expected. Temperatures will be
quite mild on Monday with many locations seeing highs in the mid
50s to low 60s.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: a warm front stretches from the lower Panhandle to
northwest Washington, with moisture spreading in from the
west-southwest. This will provide continued precipitation chances
from the Cascades to southeast Washington today. This will mainly
fall as rain, with the main snow threat in the higher mountains.
The exception will be across the northern Cascades, in places such
as the Methow Valley. While surface temperatures are slightly
above freezing, the mild air is not very deep. Thus a rain/snow
mix or all snow in the higher valleys is possible. Accumulations
should be limited to less than an inch here. Elsewhere look for
mainly sprinkles toward the northeast WA and north ID, but as we
go into late this afternoon into tonight the atmospheric layer
will begin to moisten up and there will be better precipitation
chances throughout the northern two-third of the Inland NW...i.e.
along and north of I-90.

Main adjustments: I extended the patchy fog threat into the
afternoon. The dense fog has been on the decline but given the
moist boundary layer and lack of significant mixing, there will
likely be some patches of fog out there through the afternoon. I
also reduced high temperatures a bit across the northern. The
tricky part is if that warm front shifts north and winds turn
southerly, some of the milder air to the south may get further
north. However given the persistent low clouds and lack of
significant mixing, it seemed some of locations would not be able
to achieve the previously forecast highs. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS: Little change to the previous thinking for the TAFs
over the next 24 hours. Deep moisture will ride up the backside of
the ridge as warm front moved into the region and will result in
increasing chance of light precipitation across the western TAF
sites by this afternoon and the easter TAF sites by this evening.
Conditions for KCOE-KSFF-KGEG corridor have improved early this
afternoon as stratus/fog is beginning to dissipate with VFR
conditions expected until 03-04z. Then increasing moisture and
chances for precipitaiton will again lower conditions to MVFR/IFR
and possibly LIFR through the night. For KLWS-KPUW mainly VFR
conditions will be in place through 18z Friday. Some -shra is
possible between 02z-12z with a lowering deck but still VFR.
Further to the west conditions will remain VFR at KMWH-KEAT with
the deck lowering to 050-070. Precipitation chances will increase
after 02z with cigs/vsby dropping down to MVFR and and briefly
IFR. Then fog and stratus will likely form near KEAT with IFR
cigs/vsby after 12-14z. Tobin




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        43  38  47  34  45  35 /  10  60  70  50  40  60
Coeur d`Alene  44  37  47  36  45  34 /  10  70  70  70  60  70
Pullman        51  40  52  38  47  36 /  20  30  40  60  40  70
Lewiston       54  44  57  41  54  40 /  10  20  30  50  30  60
Colville       40  34  41  33  43  35 /  10  80  80  50  50  60
Sandpoint      41  35  41  34  42  34 /  10  80  80  90  60  70
Kellogg        41  37  43  35  39  33 /  10  70  60  90  80  90
Moses Lake     46  38  49  34  52  38 /  20  50  40  30  10  40
Wenatchee      40  34  44  33  47  35 /  50  80  50  20  10  50
Omak           38  35  37  30  42  33 /  30  90  70  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 111828
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1028 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts into the Inland Northwest through tonight. This
will spreading a chance of rain across much of the area. Snow
will generally fall only in the higher mountains. The except near
will in the valleys near the north Cascades. A cold front passes
later Friday, with continued precipitation chances and slightly
lower snow levels. Unsettled weather will continue through the
weekend into early next week with valley rain, high mountain snow
and breezy winds expected. Temperatures will be quite mild on
Monday with many locations seeing highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: a warm front stretches from the lower Panhandle to
northwest Washington, with moisture spreading in from the
west-southwest. This will provide continued precipitation chances
from the Cascades to southeast Washington today. This will mainly
fall as rain, with the main snow threat in the higher mountains.
The exception will be across the northern Cascades, in places such
as the Methow Valley. While surface temperatures are slightly
above freezing, the mild air is not very deep. Thus a rain/snow
mix or all snow in the higher valleys is possible. Accumulations
should be limited to less than an inch here. Elsewhere look for
mainly sprinkles toward the northeast WA and north ID, but as we
go into late this afternoon into tonight the atmospheric layer
will begin to moisten up and there will be better precipitation
chances throughout the northern two-third of the Inland NW...i.e.
along and north of I-90.

Main adjustments: I extended the patchy fog threat into the
afternoon. The dense fog has been on the decline but given the
moist boundary layer and lack of significant mixing, there will
likely be some patches of fog out there through the afternoon. I
also reduced high temperatures a bit across the northern. The
tricky part is if that warm front shifts north and winds turn
southerly, some of the milder air to the south may get further
north. However given the persistent low clouds and lack of
significant mixing, it seemed some of locations would not be able
to achieve the previously forecast highs. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS: Little change to the previous thinking for the TAFs
over the next 24 hours. Deep moisture will ride up the backside of
the ridge as warm front moved into the region and will result in
increasing chance of light precipitation across the western TAF
sites by this afternoon and the easter TAF sites by this evening.
IFR/LIFR cigs/vsby will remain in place for the KCOE-KSFF-KGEG
corridor through early this evening as stratus/fog is entrenched
over the region. For KLWS-KPUW mainly VFR conditions will be in
place through 18z Friday. Some -shra is possible between 02z-12z
with a lowering deck but still VFR. Further to the west conditions
will remain VFR with the deck lowering to 040-050. Precipitation
chances will increase after 02z with cigs/vsby dropping down to
MVFR and and briefly IFR. Then fog and stratus will likely form
near KEAT with IFR cigs/vsby after 12-14z. Tobin




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        43  38  47  34  45  35 /  10  60  70  50  40  60
Coeur d`Alene  44  37  47  36  45  34 /  10  70  70  70  60  70
Pullman        51  40  52  38  47  36 /  20  30  40  60  40  70
Lewiston       54  44  57  41  54  40 /  10  20  30  50  30  60
Colville       40  34  41  33  43  35 /  10  80  80  50  50  60
Sandpoint      41  35  41  34  42  34 /  10  80  80  90  60  70
Kellogg        41  37  43  35  39  33 /  10  70  60  90  80  90
Moses Lake     46  38  49  34  52  38 /  20  50  40  30  10  40
Wenatchee      40  34  44  33  47  35 /  50  80  50  20  10  50
Omak           38  35  37  30  42  33 /  30  90  70  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 111749
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
949 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move across the Inland Northwest today and
tonight spreading a chance of rain across much of the area with
snow levels at the highest mountain elevation except near the
north Cascades. This front will be followed by the passage of a
cold front on Friday which will bring another chance of
precipitation to much of the area as well as slightly lower snow
levels. Unsettled weather will continue through the weekend into
early next week with valley rain, high mountain snow and breezy
winds expected. Temperatures will be quite mild on Monday with
many locations seeing highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...The weather during this period will generally
revolve around a developing warm front. As of 2am, the water vapor
looper was showing a broad swath of moisture oriented from NNE-SSW
right off the coast. Meanwhile the upper level ridge of high
pressure remains poised over the Inland NW. The ridge is expected
to amplify slightly over the area today and tonight, as height
falls continue develop off the coast. Despite the presence of the
ridge we should see the first chance of precipitation this week,
the question is how soon will it develop and what will most of it
fall as. Looking closely at the latest radar mosaics it appears
the front will come through in two swaths. The first was
responsible for the east-west band of light echoes extending along
the WA/OR border and moving slowly northeastward. This one will
likely weaken as it moves farther northward with weakening
isentropic ascent, especially over the eastern third of Washington
and north Idaho. If anything falls out of this band it will likely
be very light. Over central Washington, the chances for measurable
precipitation are a little better due to slightly deeper moisture
combined with weak upslope flow into the Cascades. We suspect most
of the precipitation will fall as rain, however north of Lake
Chelan current wet-bulb temperatures are below freezing and they
may not climb much this morning. So we expect to see primarily
snow. The second surge of precipitation will bring a much better
chance of measurable precipitation. This wave is likely a
reflection of a compact shortwave located over northern California
moving steadily northward. The HRRR suggests this second band will
track into the Wenatchee and Moses Lake area around midday and
then into NE Washington and north Idaho by late afternoon or early
evening. Snow levels climb steadily with this portion of the warm
front. Wet-bulb zero heights reach 6000 feet or higher across the
entire forecast area save a small portion of the north Cascades
mainly impacting the Methow Valley. It`s a tough call as to how
effective the cold air damming will be in this area as the
surrounding air mass is awfully warm. The 850 mb flow maintains a
weak upslope orientation at least through early Friday which is
favorable for keeping snow levels locally down to the valley
floor, however surface temperature per bufkit profiles hover near
or slightly above freezing. We put several inches of snow in the
forecast across the upper Methow Valley however that`s assuming
any snow which falls is able to accumulate rather than melting as
it falls. Confidence is not high due to the precarious temperature
profiles. Elsewhere we are much more confident about primarily a
rain event. Rainfall totals should range from .15-35 inches across
the northern mountains and extending into the northern Idaho
Panhandle, with lighter amounts across southern Washington and the
central Panhandle. Near the Cascades, precipitation amounts could
range from 0.30-0.70 inches.

For Friday, the ridge finally gives way and a sw-ne oriented upper
level jet pokes into the southern portions of the region by
midday. This will turn the steady warm frontal precipitation to
more of a showery regime with most of the precipitation occurring
near the cold front. The cold front will likely end the
precipitation threat in the lee of the Cascades during the morning
hours as the upslope flow turns to a downslope westerly regime.
Meanwhile we expect the shower coverage to increase over the
eastern third of Washington and over the Panhandle during the
afternoon as the front destabilizes the atmosphere and enhances
any orographic ascent. Generally speaking the precipitation
amounts from the cold front will be lighter than whats produced
from the warm front.

Temperatures will remain milder both days
over the eastern third of Washington and the Idaho Panhandle with
highs in the 40s to middle 50s. Cooler temperatures will remain a
fixture over central Washington today due to the cold air damming
with highs in the 30s to lower 40s. The cold front should enhance
mixing on Friday bringing an end to the inversions with highs
climbing into the upper 30s to middle 40s. fx

Friday night through Wednesday...A mild and unsettled weather
pattern is expected this weekend through at least the middle of
next week. Initially a slightly cooler air mass will move in
Friday night and Saturday as an upper trough passes through. Mid
level westerly flow will favor most of these showers for the
Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle. Snow levels by Saturday
morning lower to 3000-4000 feet with snow showers expected over
the mountain passes. Then an atmospheric river of subtropical
moisture becomes aimed at the area Saturday night into Sunday.
This will bring more rain and snow with snow levels rapidly rising
from 2500-4000 feet initially early Sunday to 6000-7000 feet
Monday as a warm front passes through. The atmospheric river
begins to lift north Sunday night into Monday to near or just
north of the Canadian border by Monday afternoon. Strong mid
level westerly flow throughout this event will favor moderate to
heavy precipitation for the Cascade crest and in the mountains of
the Idaho Panhandle with added orographic lift...with mainly
light amounts over Central and Eastern Washington as a strong rain
shadow develops. Meanwhile Monday into Tuesday a surface low
tracking into southern BC will result in a strengthening south-
southwest winds which combined with the warmer air mass will lead
to increased snow melt for areas that have snow currently. 850mb
winds increasing to 30-45 kts will likely result in breezy to
windy conditions over the region...especially the Upper Columbia
Basin, Spokane area, and Palouse.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS:
Little change to the previous thinking for the TAFs over the next
24 hours. Deep moisture will ride up the backside of the ridge as
warm front moved into the region and will result in increasing
chance of light precipitation across the western TAF sites by
this afternoon and the easter TAF sites by this evening. IFR/LIFR
cigs/vsby will remain in place for the KCOE-KSFF-KGEG corridor
through early this evening as stratus/fog is entrenched over the
region. For KLWS-KPUW mainly VFR conditions will be in place
through 18z Friday. Some -shra is possible between 02z-12z with a
lowering deck but still VFR. Further to the west conditions will
remain VFR with the deck lowering to 040-050. Precipitation
chances will increase after 02z with cigs/vsby dropping down to
MVFR and and briefly IFR. Then fog and stratus will likely form
near KEAT with IFR cigs/vsby after 12-14z. Tobin



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        34  46  38  48  34  45 /  10  20  70  70  70  40
Coeur d`Alene  34  46  38  47  36  44 /  10  20  70  70  80  60
Pullman        37  51  42  52  37  47 /  10  10  20  50  60  40
Lewiston       42  55  44  57  41  53 /   0  10  20  40  50  40
Colville       32  41  35  42  33  42 /  10  20  80  60  70  50
Sandpoint      31  43  36  43  34  41 /  10  20  90  70  90  60
Kellogg        36  43  37  44  35  39 /  20  20  70  60  90  80
Moses Lake     33  46  37  48  34  49 /   0  20  40  50  30  10
Wenatchee      33  40  35  44  32  45 /  10  60  80  40  30  10
Omak           30  37  34  38  30  41 /  10  40  80  40  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 111749
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
949 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move across the Inland Northwest today and
tonight spreading a chance of rain across much of the area with
snow levels at the highest mountain elevation except near the
north Cascades. This front will be followed by the passage of a
cold front on Friday which will bring another chance of
precipitation to much of the area as well as slightly lower snow
levels. Unsettled weather will continue through the weekend into
early next week with valley rain, high mountain snow and breezy
winds expected. Temperatures will be quite mild on Monday with
many locations seeing highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...The weather during this period will generally
revolve around a developing warm front. As of 2am, the water vapor
looper was showing a broad swath of moisture oriented from NNE-SSW
right off the coast. Meanwhile the upper level ridge of high
pressure remains poised over the Inland NW. The ridge is expected
to amplify slightly over the area today and tonight, as height
falls continue develop off the coast. Despite the presence of the
ridge we should see the first chance of precipitation this week,
the question is how soon will it develop and what will most of it
fall as. Looking closely at the latest radar mosaics it appears
the front will come through in two swaths. The first was
responsible for the east-west band of light echoes extending along
the WA/OR border and moving slowly northeastward. This one will
likely weaken as it moves farther northward with weakening
isentropic ascent, especially over the eastern third of Washington
and north Idaho. If anything falls out of this band it will likely
be very light. Over central Washington, the chances for measurable
precipitation are a little better due to slightly deeper moisture
combined with weak upslope flow into the Cascades. We suspect most
of the precipitation will fall as rain, however north of Lake
Chelan current wet-bulb temperatures are below freezing and they
may not climb much this morning. So we expect to see primarily
snow. The second surge of precipitation will bring a much better
chance of measurable precipitation. This wave is likely a
reflection of a compact shortwave located over northern California
moving steadily northward. The HRRR suggests this second band will
track into the Wenatchee and Moses Lake area around midday and
then into NE Washington and north Idaho by late afternoon or early
evening. Snow levels climb steadily with this portion of the warm
front. Wet-bulb zero heights reach 6000 feet or higher across the
entire forecast area save a small portion of the north Cascades
mainly impacting the Methow Valley. It`s a tough call as to how
effective the cold air damming will be in this area as the
surrounding air mass is awfully warm. The 850 mb flow maintains a
weak upslope orientation at least through early Friday which is
favorable for keeping snow levels locally down to the valley
floor, however surface temperature per bufkit profiles hover near
or slightly above freezing. We put several inches of snow in the
forecast across the upper Methow Valley however that`s assuming
any snow which falls is able to accumulate rather than melting as
it falls. Confidence is not high due to the precarious temperature
profiles. Elsewhere we are much more confident about primarily a
rain event. Rainfall totals should range from .15-35 inches across
the northern mountains and extending into the northern Idaho
Panhandle, with lighter amounts across southern Washington and the
central Panhandle. Near the Cascades, precipitation amounts could
range from 0.30-0.70 inches.

For Friday, the ridge finally gives way and a sw-ne oriented upper
level jet pokes into the southern portions of the region by
midday. This will turn the steady warm frontal precipitation to
more of a showery regime with most of the precipitation occurring
near the cold front. The cold front will likely end the
precipitation threat in the lee of the Cascades during the morning
hours as the upslope flow turns to a downslope westerly regime.
Meanwhile we expect the shower coverage to increase over the
eastern third of Washington and over the Panhandle during the
afternoon as the front destabilizes the atmosphere and enhances
any orographic ascent. Generally speaking the precipitation
amounts from the cold front will be lighter than whats produced
from the warm front.

Temperatures will remain milder both days
over the eastern third of Washington and the Idaho Panhandle with
highs in the 40s to middle 50s. Cooler temperatures will remain a
fixture over central Washington today due to the cold air damming
with highs in the 30s to lower 40s. The cold front should enhance
mixing on Friday bringing an end to the inversions with highs
climbing into the upper 30s to middle 40s. fx

Friday night through Wednesday...A mild and unsettled weather
pattern is expected this weekend through at least the middle of
next week. Initially a slightly cooler air mass will move in
Friday night and Saturday as an upper trough passes through. Mid
level westerly flow will favor most of these showers for the
Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle. Snow levels by Saturday
morning lower to 3000-4000 feet with snow showers expected over
the mountain passes. Then an atmospheric river of subtropical
moisture becomes aimed at the area Saturday night into Sunday.
This will bring more rain and snow with snow levels rapidly rising
from 2500-4000 feet initially early Sunday to 6000-7000 feet
Monday as a warm front passes through. The atmospheric river
begins to lift north Sunday night into Monday to near or just
north of the Canadian border by Monday afternoon. Strong mid
level westerly flow throughout this event will favor moderate to
heavy precipitation for the Cascade crest and in the mountains of
the Idaho Panhandle with added orographic lift...with mainly
light amounts over Central and Eastern Washington as a strong rain
shadow develops. Meanwhile Monday into Tuesday a surface low
tracking into southern BC will result in a strengthening south-
southwest winds which combined with the warmer air mass will lead
to increased snow melt for areas that have snow currently. 850mb
winds increasing to 30-45 kts will likely result in breezy to
windy conditions over the region...especially the Upper Columbia
Basin, Spokane area, and Palouse.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS:
Little change to the previous thinking for the TAFs over the next
24 hours. Deep moisture will ride up the backside of the ridge as
warm front moved into the region and will result in increasing
chance of light precipitation across the western TAF sites by
this afternoon and the easter TAF sites by this evening. IFR/LIFR
cigs/vsby will remain in place for the KCOE-KSFF-KGEG corridor
through early this evening as stratus/fog is entrenched over the
region. For KLWS-KPUW mainly VFR conditions will be in place
through 18z Friday. Some -shra is possible between 02z-12z with a
lowering deck but still VFR. Further to the west conditions will
remain VFR with the deck lowering to 040-050. Precipitation
chances will increase after 02z with cigs/vsby dropping down to
MVFR and and briefly IFR. Then fog and stratus will likely form
near KEAT with IFR cigs/vsby after 12-14z. Tobin



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        34  46  38  48  34  45 /  10  20  70  70  70  40
Coeur d`Alene  34  46  38  47  36  44 /  10  20  70  70  80  60
Pullman        37  51  42  52  37  47 /  10  10  20  50  60  40
Lewiston       42  55  44  57  41  53 /   0  10  20  40  50  40
Colville       32  41  35  42  33  42 /  10  20  80  60  70  50
Sandpoint      31  43  36  43  34  41 /  10  20  90  70  90  60
Kellogg        36  43  37  44  35  39 /  20  20  70  60  90  80
Moses Lake     33  46  37  48  34  49 /   0  20  40  50  30  10
Wenatchee      33  40  35  44  32  45 /  10  60  80  40  30  10
Omak           30  37  34  38  30  41 /  10  40  80  40  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 111749
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
949 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move across the Inland Northwest today and
tonight spreading a chance of rain across much of the area with
snow levels at the highest mountain elevation except near the
north Cascades. This front will be followed by the passage of a
cold front on Friday which will bring another chance of
precipitation to much of the area as well as slightly lower snow
levels. Unsettled weather will continue through the weekend into
early next week with valley rain, high mountain snow and breezy
winds expected. Temperatures will be quite mild on Monday with
many locations seeing highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...The weather during this period will generally
revolve around a developing warm front. As of 2am, the water vapor
looper was showing a broad swath of moisture oriented from NNE-SSW
right off the coast. Meanwhile the upper level ridge of high
pressure remains poised over the Inland NW. The ridge is expected
to amplify slightly over the area today and tonight, as height
falls continue develop off the coast. Despite the presence of the
ridge we should see the first chance of precipitation this week,
the question is how soon will it develop and what will most of it
fall as. Looking closely at the latest radar mosaics it appears
the front will come through in two swaths. The first was
responsible for the east-west band of light echoes extending along
the WA/OR border and moving slowly northeastward. This one will
likely weaken as it moves farther northward with weakening
isentropic ascent, especially over the eastern third of Washington
and north Idaho. If anything falls out of this band it will likely
be very light. Over central Washington, the chances for measurable
precipitation are a little better due to slightly deeper moisture
combined with weak upslope flow into the Cascades. We suspect most
of the precipitation will fall as rain, however north of Lake
Chelan current wet-bulb temperatures are below freezing and they
may not climb much this morning. So we expect to see primarily
snow. The second surge of precipitation will bring a much better
chance of measurable precipitation. This wave is likely a
reflection of a compact shortwave located over northern California
moving steadily northward. The HRRR suggests this second band will
track into the Wenatchee and Moses Lake area around midday and
then into NE Washington and north Idaho by late afternoon or early
evening. Snow levels climb steadily with this portion of the warm
front. Wet-bulb zero heights reach 6000 feet or higher across the
entire forecast area save a small portion of the north Cascades
mainly impacting the Methow Valley. It`s a tough call as to how
effective the cold air damming will be in this area as the
surrounding air mass is awfully warm. The 850 mb flow maintains a
weak upslope orientation at least through early Friday which is
favorable for keeping snow levels locally down to the valley
floor, however surface temperature per bufkit profiles hover near
or slightly above freezing. We put several inches of snow in the
forecast across the upper Methow Valley however that`s assuming
any snow which falls is able to accumulate rather than melting as
it falls. Confidence is not high due to the precarious temperature
profiles. Elsewhere we are much more confident about primarily a
rain event. Rainfall totals should range from .15-35 inches across
the northern mountains and extending into the northern Idaho
Panhandle, with lighter amounts across southern Washington and the
central Panhandle. Near the Cascades, precipitation amounts could
range from 0.30-0.70 inches.

For Friday, the ridge finally gives way and a sw-ne oriented upper
level jet pokes into the southern portions of the region by
midday. This will turn the steady warm frontal precipitation to
more of a showery regime with most of the precipitation occurring
near the cold front. The cold front will likely end the
precipitation threat in the lee of the Cascades during the morning
hours as the upslope flow turns to a downslope westerly regime.
Meanwhile we expect the shower coverage to increase over the
eastern third of Washington and over the Panhandle during the
afternoon as the front destabilizes the atmosphere and enhances
any orographic ascent. Generally speaking the precipitation
amounts from the cold front will be lighter than whats produced
from the warm front.

Temperatures will remain milder both days
over the eastern third of Washington and the Idaho Panhandle with
highs in the 40s to middle 50s. Cooler temperatures will remain a
fixture over central Washington today due to the cold air damming
with highs in the 30s to lower 40s. The cold front should enhance
mixing on Friday bringing an end to the inversions with highs
climbing into the upper 30s to middle 40s. fx

Friday night through Wednesday...A mild and unsettled weather
pattern is expected this weekend through at least the middle of
next week. Initially a slightly cooler air mass will move in
Friday night and Saturday as an upper trough passes through. Mid
level westerly flow will favor most of these showers for the
Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle. Snow levels by Saturday
morning lower to 3000-4000 feet with snow showers expected over
the mountain passes. Then an atmospheric river of subtropical
moisture becomes aimed at the area Saturday night into Sunday.
This will bring more rain and snow with snow levels rapidly rising
from 2500-4000 feet initially early Sunday to 6000-7000 feet
Monday as a warm front passes through. The atmospheric river
begins to lift north Sunday night into Monday to near or just
north of the Canadian border by Monday afternoon. Strong mid
level westerly flow throughout this event will favor moderate to
heavy precipitation for the Cascade crest and in the mountains of
the Idaho Panhandle with added orographic lift...with mainly
light amounts over Central and Eastern Washington as a strong rain
shadow develops. Meanwhile Monday into Tuesday a surface low
tracking into southern BC will result in a strengthening south-
southwest winds which combined with the warmer air mass will lead
to increased snow melt for areas that have snow currently. 850mb
winds increasing to 30-45 kts will likely result in breezy to
windy conditions over the region...especially the Upper Columbia
Basin, Spokane area, and Palouse.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS:
Little change to the previous thinking for the TAFs over the next
24 hours. Deep moisture will ride up the backside of the ridge as
warm front moved into the region and will result in increasing
chance of light precipitation across the western TAF sites by
this afternoon and the easter TAF sites by this evening. IFR/LIFR
cigs/vsby will remain in place for the KCOE-KSFF-KGEG corridor
through early this evening as stratus/fog is entrenched over the
region. For KLWS-KPUW mainly VFR conditions will be in place
through 18z Friday. Some -shra is possible between 02z-12z with a
lowering deck but still VFR. Further to the west conditions will
remain VFR with the deck lowering to 040-050. Precipitation
chances will increase after 02z with cigs/vsby dropping down to
MVFR and and briefly IFR. Then fog and stratus will likely form
near KEAT with IFR cigs/vsby after 12-14z. Tobin



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        34  46  38  48  34  45 /  10  20  70  70  70  40
Coeur d`Alene  34  46  38  47  36  44 /  10  20  70  70  80  60
Pullman        37  51  42  52  37  47 /  10  10  20  50  60  40
Lewiston       42  55  44  57  41  53 /   0  10  20  40  50  40
Colville       32  41  35  42  33  42 /  10  20  80  60  70  50
Sandpoint      31  43  36  43  34  41 /  10  20  90  70  90  60
Kellogg        36  43  37  44  35  39 /  20  20  70  60  90  80
Moses Lake     33  46  37  48  34  49 /   0  20  40  50  30  10
Wenatchee      33  40  35  44  32  45 /  10  60  80  40  30  10
Omak           30  37  34  38  30  41 /  10  40  80  40  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 111704
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
854 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MILD AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN TO NORTHWEST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO BELOW THE
CASCADES PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD
STEADIER RAIN AND PRODUCE RISING SNOW LEVELS LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PRODUCE MORE VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW NEXT WEEK.


&&


.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A MILD AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING OFF AND ON LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY TO MUCH OF
NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. QPF SHOULD GENERALLY BE
HIGHEST ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES AND LOWEST ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG 140W OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR
135W WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...AND ALLOW SNOW
LEVELS TO LOWER TO NEAR 4500 FT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LAG A BIT AND
CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE AN UPTICK IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER FURTHER...GENERALLY
IN THE 3500-4000 FT RANGE. NOT SURE WE WILL SEE ENOUGH SNOW TO
WARRANT A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR OUR CASCADES THOUGH.

SHOWERS SHOULD WIND DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING TEMPORARILY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THE BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A
STRONG WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD STEADY RAIN INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND LIKELY CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN TO THE AREA
FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO PUSH OUT OF
THE CASCADES. GIVEN MODEL QPF...THERE APPEARS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES AND NORTH OREGON CASCADES
ABOVE 4000-5000 FT WILL SEE ENOUGH SNOW TO RESULT IN WINTER WX
ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IMPACTS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED
AS SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE TO 7000 FT OR HIGHER ON SUNDAY. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE PAC NW LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE ECMWF. NOT EXPECTING TO SEE A LOT OF CASCADE SNOW WITH
THIS FRONT AS SNOW LEVELS QUICKLY RISE ABOVE 7000 FT EARLY SUNDAY. WE
COULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN MONDAY AS A TRANSIENT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY AND SHOULD
BRING MORE RAIN AND CASCADE SNOW TO THE REGION...WITH SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING TO AROUND 3500 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST...BUT WILL TREND COOLER
AFTER MONDAY. /64


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH CIGS RANGING
BETWEEN 5K AND 9K. CIGS WILL LOWER AT THE COAST TO MVFR THIS
EVENING BUT MAY LIFT BACK TO VFR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EAST WINDS
WILL GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT NEAR KTTD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH
COAST NEAR KONP CAN EXPECT SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AND HIGH CLOUDS. TJ

&&

.MARINE...BUOYS ARE SHOWING MIXED SEAS OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH A BUILDING NW SWELL AROUND 20 SECONDS AND A SUBSIDING W
SWELL AROUND 11 SECONDS. THESE DIFFERENT SWELL TRAINS ARE DUE TO
A MULTIPLE SURFACE LOWS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL
HAS PEAKED AT THE BUOYS WAY OFFSHORE AROUND 20 FT. A SIMPLE SWELL
DECAY MODEL FORECASTS THAT THE SWELLS WILL DECAY TO AROUND 14 OF
17 FT IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS THEREFORE GREATER
FOR THE INCREASED SEAS THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE CURRENT SEAS
BEING 1 TO 2 FT BELOW THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
WATERS AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT
WINDS FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 10 NM. HOWEVER...THINK THE WATERS
WITHIN 10 NM WILL SEE SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 21 AND 25 KT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM
     PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
    PST THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
    THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST FRIDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 111704
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
854 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MILD AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN TO NORTHWEST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO BELOW THE
CASCADES PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD
STEADIER RAIN AND PRODUCE RISING SNOW LEVELS LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PRODUCE MORE VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW NEXT WEEK.


&&


.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A MILD AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING OFF AND ON LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY TO MUCH OF
NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. QPF SHOULD GENERALLY BE
HIGHEST ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES AND LOWEST ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG 140W OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR
135W WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...AND ALLOW SNOW
LEVELS TO LOWER TO NEAR 4500 FT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LAG A BIT AND
CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE AN UPTICK IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER FURTHER...GENERALLY
IN THE 3500-4000 FT RANGE. NOT SURE WE WILL SEE ENOUGH SNOW TO
WARRANT A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR OUR CASCADES THOUGH.

SHOWERS SHOULD WIND DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING TEMPORARILY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THE BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A
STRONG WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD STEADY RAIN INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND LIKELY CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN TO THE AREA
FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO PUSH OUT OF
THE CASCADES. GIVEN MODEL QPF...THERE APPEARS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES AND NORTH OREGON CASCADES
ABOVE 4000-5000 FT WILL SEE ENOUGH SNOW TO RESULT IN WINTER WX
ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IMPACTS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED
AS SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE TO 7000 FT OR HIGHER ON SUNDAY. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE PAC NW LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE ECMWF. NOT EXPECTING TO SEE A LOT OF CASCADE SNOW WITH
THIS FRONT AS SNOW LEVELS QUICKLY RISE ABOVE 7000 FT EARLY SUNDAY. WE
COULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN MONDAY AS A TRANSIENT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY AND SHOULD
BRING MORE RAIN AND CASCADE SNOW TO THE REGION...WITH SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING TO AROUND 3500 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST...BUT WILL TREND COOLER
AFTER MONDAY. /64


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH CIGS RANGING
BETWEEN 5K AND 9K. CIGS WILL LOWER AT THE COAST TO MVFR THIS
EVENING BUT MAY LIFT BACK TO VFR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EAST WINDS
WILL GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT NEAR KTTD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH
COAST NEAR KONP CAN EXPECT SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AND HIGH CLOUDS. TJ

&&

.MARINE...BUOYS ARE SHOWING MIXED SEAS OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH A BUILDING NW SWELL AROUND 20 SECONDS AND A SUBSIDING W
SWELL AROUND 11 SECONDS. THESE DIFFERENT SWELL TRAINS ARE DUE TO
A MULTIPLE SURFACE LOWS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL
HAS PEAKED AT THE BUOYS WAY OFFSHORE AROUND 20 FT. A SIMPLE SWELL
DECAY MODEL FORECASTS THAT THE SWELLS WILL DECAY TO AROUND 14 OF
17 FT IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS THEREFORE GREATER
FOR THE INCREASED SEAS THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE CURRENT SEAS
BEING 1 TO 2 FT BELOW THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
WATERS AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT
WINDS FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 10 NM. HOWEVER...THINK THE WATERS
WITHIN 10 NM WILL SEE SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 21 AND 25 KT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM
     PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
    PST THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
    THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST FRIDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 111704
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
854 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MILD AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN TO NORTHWEST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO BELOW THE
CASCADES PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD
STEADIER RAIN AND PRODUCE RISING SNOW LEVELS LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PRODUCE MORE VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW NEXT WEEK.


&&


.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A MILD AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING OFF AND ON LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY TO MUCH OF
NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. QPF SHOULD GENERALLY BE
HIGHEST ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES AND LOWEST ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG 140W OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR
135W WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...AND ALLOW SNOW
LEVELS TO LOWER TO NEAR 4500 FT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LAG A BIT AND
CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE AN UPTICK IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER FURTHER...GENERALLY
IN THE 3500-4000 FT RANGE. NOT SURE WE WILL SEE ENOUGH SNOW TO
WARRANT A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR OUR CASCADES THOUGH.

SHOWERS SHOULD WIND DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING TEMPORARILY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THE BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A
STRONG WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD STEADY RAIN INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND LIKELY CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN TO THE AREA
FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO PUSH OUT OF
THE CASCADES. GIVEN MODEL QPF...THERE APPEARS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES AND NORTH OREGON CASCADES
ABOVE 4000-5000 FT WILL SEE ENOUGH SNOW TO RESULT IN WINTER WX
ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IMPACTS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED
AS SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE TO 7000 FT OR HIGHER ON SUNDAY. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE PAC NW LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE ECMWF. NOT EXPECTING TO SEE A LOT OF CASCADE SNOW WITH
THIS FRONT AS SNOW LEVELS QUICKLY RISE ABOVE 7000 FT EARLY SUNDAY. WE
COULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN MONDAY AS A TRANSIENT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY AND SHOULD
BRING MORE RAIN AND CASCADE SNOW TO THE REGION...WITH SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING TO AROUND 3500 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST...BUT WILL TREND COOLER
AFTER MONDAY. /64


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH CIGS RANGING
BETWEEN 5K AND 9K. CIGS WILL LOWER AT THE COAST TO MVFR THIS
EVENING BUT MAY LIFT BACK TO VFR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EAST WINDS
WILL GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT NEAR KTTD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH
COAST NEAR KONP CAN EXPECT SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AND HIGH CLOUDS. TJ

&&

.MARINE...BUOYS ARE SHOWING MIXED SEAS OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH A BUILDING NW SWELL AROUND 20 SECONDS AND A SUBSIDING W
SWELL AROUND 11 SECONDS. THESE DIFFERENT SWELL TRAINS ARE DUE TO
A MULTIPLE SURFACE LOWS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL
HAS PEAKED AT THE BUOYS WAY OFFSHORE AROUND 20 FT. A SIMPLE SWELL
DECAY MODEL FORECASTS THAT THE SWELLS WILL DECAY TO AROUND 14 OF
17 FT IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS THEREFORE GREATER
FOR THE INCREASED SEAS THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE CURRENT SEAS
BEING 1 TO 2 FT BELOW THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
WATERS AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT
WINDS FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 10 NM. HOWEVER...THINK THE WATERS
WITHIN 10 NM WILL SEE SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 21 AND 25 KT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM
     PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
    PST THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
    THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST FRIDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 111702
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A PAIR OF WARM FRONTS WILL BRING
RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...LIKE YESTERDAY...RAIN HAS MOVED IN FASTER THAN MODELS
PREDICTED. RADAR IS LIT UP OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AND NEW MODEL RUNS
BRING RAIN NORTHEAST FASTER...GENERALLY TO THE SEATTLE AREA OR SO IN
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE GRIDS AND FORECASTS FOR
HIGHER POPS SOONER. ONLY THE NORTHERNMOST INTERIOR IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN DRY TODAY...THOUGH A SPRINKLE THERE IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND ANY AREAS THAT STAY DRY TODAY WILL
GET WET TONIGHT. WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN BY
18Z FRIDAY A COLD FRONT IS ON THE COAST. IT MOVES EAST THROUGH
WESTERN WASHINGTON DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS ALSO A MINOR CHANGE
FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS WHICH BROUGHT THE FRONT THROUGH FASTER. IF
CORRECT THEN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATER AND MOST OF THE AREA WILL
SPEND THE DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR...GIVING HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID
50S. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE 6000 FEET OR HIGHER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
PASSES.

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES BY FRIDAY NIGHT GIVING SHOWERS. SATURDAY
MORNING LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY EXCEPT FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. THE SNOW
LEVEL WILL DIP TO 3000-4000 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON THE COAST AND RAIN WILL
SPREAD INLAND AS THE SNOW LEVEL RISES BACK TO 6000 FEET OR SO
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND 50. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WHILE GENERAL TREND FOR MONDAY
LINES UP WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF...THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE
DETAILS. GFS WANTS TO PUSH PRECIP UP AND OUT OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK
RIDGE IN PLACE. EURO ALSO HAS WEAK RIDGE IN PLACE...BUT KEEPS PRECIP
FURTHER SOUTH...IN THIS INSTANCE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE SOUND
TO ALL POINTS NORTH. PRETTY DECENT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC MAY
PUMP UP MOISTURE INTO SAID WEAK RIDGE...KEEPING THE THREAT OF PRECIP
IN THE FORECAST AT LEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY
EVEN FURTHER.

MONDAY PROBABLY SEES THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
WIDESPREAD MID-50S IN THE LOWLANDS...BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO
FALL AGAIN...ALTHOUGH LOWLAND TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S UNTIL THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SMR

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE OLYMPICS BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT WHICH COULD CAUSE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE AND MOIST. A
WARM FRONT SITTING FROM THE CENTRAL COAST OF OREGON TO A 988 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 48N 141W WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...THE THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRI MORNING.

OFFSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL GIVE
MAINLY VFR CEILINGS TO THE INTERIOR AND TO THE COASTAL STRIP TODAY
EVEN WITH RAINFALL INCREASING DURING THE DAY. THE NORTH AND EAST
SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS WILL SEE IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW STRATUS AND
LIGHT RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SOMEWHAT WITH LOWERING CIGS
FRI MORNING AS OFFSHORE PRES GRADIENTS DECREASE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALBRECHT

KSEA...P6SM BKN-OVC080 WILL LOWER TO OVC040 THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.  OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES WILL INCREASE TO A STEADY LIGHT RAIN
ABOUT 22Z. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO OVC025-030 ABOUT 12Z FRI.
WINDS NE 4-6 KT BECOMING SELY 5-7 KT AT 06Z AND SLY 8-12 KT 14Z.
ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST TO A
988 MB LOW NEAR 48N 141W WILL LIFT NE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE COAST AND THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT AND
ADMIRALTY INLET...AND LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR ADMIRALTY
INLET.

THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL FOLLOW FRI AFTERNOON OR EVENING INTO SAT MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH FLOW IS LIKELY OVER PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS FLOW ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE
OLYMPICS AND A MESO LOW FORMS OVER THE NE OLYMPIC PENINSULA.

A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO MOST OF THE WATERS SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER
     10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
     SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF
     JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
     GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PST FRIDAY
     FOR EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-
     NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PST FRIDAY
     FOR ADMIRALTY INLET.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 111702
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A PAIR OF WARM FRONTS WILL BRING
RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...LIKE YESTERDAY...RAIN HAS MOVED IN FASTER THAN MODELS
PREDICTED. RADAR IS LIT UP OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AND NEW MODEL RUNS
BRING RAIN NORTHEAST FASTER...GENERALLY TO THE SEATTLE AREA OR SO IN
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE GRIDS AND FORECASTS FOR
HIGHER POPS SOONER. ONLY THE NORTHERNMOST INTERIOR IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN DRY TODAY...THOUGH A SPRINKLE THERE IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND ANY AREAS THAT STAY DRY TODAY WILL
GET WET TONIGHT. WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN BY
18Z FRIDAY A COLD FRONT IS ON THE COAST. IT MOVES EAST THROUGH
WESTERN WASHINGTON DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS ALSO A MINOR CHANGE
FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS WHICH BROUGHT THE FRONT THROUGH FASTER. IF
CORRECT THEN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATER AND MOST OF THE AREA WILL
SPEND THE DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR...GIVING HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID
50S. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE 6000 FEET OR HIGHER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
PASSES.

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES BY FRIDAY NIGHT GIVING SHOWERS. SATURDAY
MORNING LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY EXCEPT FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. THE SNOW
LEVEL WILL DIP TO 3000-4000 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON THE COAST AND RAIN WILL
SPREAD INLAND AS THE SNOW LEVEL RISES BACK TO 6000 FEET OR SO
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND 50. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WHILE GENERAL TREND FOR MONDAY
LINES UP WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF...THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE
DETAILS. GFS WANTS TO PUSH PRECIP UP AND OUT OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK
RIDGE IN PLACE. EURO ALSO HAS WEAK RIDGE IN PLACE...BUT KEEPS PRECIP
FURTHER SOUTH...IN THIS INSTANCE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE SOUND
TO ALL POINTS NORTH. PRETTY DECENT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC MAY
PUMP UP MOISTURE INTO SAID WEAK RIDGE...KEEPING THE THREAT OF PRECIP
IN THE FORECAST AT LEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY
EVEN FURTHER.

MONDAY PROBABLY SEES THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
WIDESPREAD MID-50S IN THE LOWLANDS...BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO
FALL AGAIN...ALTHOUGH LOWLAND TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S UNTIL THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SMR

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE OLYMPICS BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT WHICH COULD CAUSE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE AND MOIST. A
WARM FRONT SITTING FROM THE CENTRAL COAST OF OREGON TO A 988 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 48N 141W WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...THE THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRI MORNING.

OFFSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL GIVE
MAINLY VFR CEILINGS TO THE INTERIOR AND TO THE COASTAL STRIP TODAY
EVEN WITH RAINFALL INCREASING DURING THE DAY. THE NORTH AND EAST
SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS WILL SEE IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW STRATUS AND
LIGHT RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SOMEWHAT WITH LOWERING CIGS
FRI MORNING AS OFFSHORE PRES GRADIENTS DECREASE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALBRECHT

KSEA...P6SM BKN-OVC080 WILL LOWER TO OVC040 THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.  OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES WILL INCREASE TO A STEADY LIGHT RAIN
ABOUT 22Z. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO OVC025-030 ABOUT 12Z FRI.
WINDS NE 4-6 KT BECOMING SELY 5-7 KT AT 06Z AND SLY 8-12 KT 14Z.
ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST TO A
988 MB LOW NEAR 48N 141W WILL LIFT NE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE COAST AND THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT AND
ADMIRALTY INLET...AND LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR ADMIRALTY
INLET.

THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL FOLLOW FRI AFTERNOON OR EVENING INTO SAT MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH FLOW IS LIKELY OVER PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS FLOW ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE
OLYMPICS AND A MESO LOW FORMS OVER THE NE OLYMPIC PENINSULA.

A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO MOST OF THE WATERS SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER
     10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
     SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF
     JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
     GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PST FRIDAY
     FOR EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-
     NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PST FRIDAY
     FOR ADMIRALTY INLET.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KSEW 111702
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A PAIR OF WARM FRONTS WILL BRING
RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...LIKE YESTERDAY...RAIN HAS MOVED IN FASTER THAN MODELS
PREDICTED. RADAR IS LIT UP OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AND NEW MODEL RUNS
BRING RAIN NORTHEAST FASTER...GENERALLY TO THE SEATTLE AREA OR SO IN
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE GRIDS AND FORECASTS FOR
HIGHER POPS SOONER. ONLY THE NORTHERNMOST INTERIOR IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN DRY TODAY...THOUGH A SPRINKLE THERE IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND ANY AREAS THAT STAY DRY TODAY WILL
GET WET TONIGHT. WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN BY
18Z FRIDAY A COLD FRONT IS ON THE COAST. IT MOVES EAST THROUGH
WESTERN WASHINGTON DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS ALSO A MINOR CHANGE
FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS WHICH BROUGHT THE FRONT THROUGH FASTER. IF
CORRECT THEN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATER AND MOST OF THE AREA WILL
SPEND THE DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR...GIVING HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID
50S. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE 6000 FEET OR HIGHER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
PASSES.

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES BY FRIDAY NIGHT GIVING SHOWERS. SATURDAY
MORNING LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY EXCEPT FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. THE SNOW
LEVEL WILL DIP TO 3000-4000 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON THE COAST AND RAIN WILL
SPREAD INLAND AS THE SNOW LEVEL RISES BACK TO 6000 FEET OR SO
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND 50. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WHILE GENERAL TREND FOR MONDAY
LINES UP WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF...THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE
DETAILS. GFS WANTS TO PUSH PRECIP UP AND OUT OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK
RIDGE IN PLACE. EURO ALSO HAS WEAK RIDGE IN PLACE...BUT KEEPS PRECIP
FURTHER SOUTH...IN THIS INSTANCE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE SOUND
TO ALL POINTS NORTH. PRETTY DECENT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC MAY
PUMP UP MOISTURE INTO SAID WEAK RIDGE...KEEPING THE THREAT OF PRECIP
IN THE FORECAST AT LEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY
EVEN FURTHER.

MONDAY PROBABLY SEES THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
WIDESPREAD MID-50S IN THE LOWLANDS...BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO
FALL AGAIN...ALTHOUGH LOWLAND TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S UNTIL THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SMR

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE OLYMPICS BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT WHICH COULD CAUSE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE AND MOIST. A
WARM FRONT SITTING FROM THE CENTRAL COAST OF OREGON TO A 988 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 48N 141W WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...THE THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRI MORNING.

OFFSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL GIVE
MAINLY VFR CEILINGS TO THE INTERIOR AND TO THE COASTAL STRIP TODAY
EVEN WITH RAINFALL INCREASING DURING THE DAY. THE NORTH AND EAST
SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS WILL SEE IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW STRATUS AND
LIGHT RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SOMEWHAT WITH LOWERING CIGS
FRI MORNING AS OFFSHORE PRES GRADIENTS DECREASE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALBRECHT

KSEA...P6SM BKN-OVC080 WILL LOWER TO OVC040 THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.  OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES WILL INCREASE TO A STEADY LIGHT RAIN
ABOUT 22Z. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO OVC025-030 ABOUT 12Z FRI.
WINDS NE 4-6 KT BECOMING SELY 5-7 KT AT 06Z AND SLY 8-12 KT 14Z.
ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST TO A
988 MB LOW NEAR 48N 141W WILL LIFT NE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE COAST AND THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT AND
ADMIRALTY INLET...AND LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR ADMIRALTY
INLET.

THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL FOLLOW FRI AFTERNOON OR EVENING INTO SAT MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH FLOW IS LIKELY OVER PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS FLOW ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE
OLYMPICS AND A MESO LOW FORMS OVER THE NE OLYMPIC PENINSULA.

A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO MOST OF THE WATERS SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER
     10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
     SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF
     JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
     GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PST FRIDAY
     FOR EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-
     NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PST FRIDAY
     FOR ADMIRALTY INLET.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KOTX 111213
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
417 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move across the Inland Northwest today and
tonight spreading a chance of rain across much of the area with
snow levels at the highest mountain elevation except near the
north Cascades. This front will be followed by the passage of a
cold front on Friday which will bring another chance of
precipitation to much of the area as well as slightly lower snow
levels. Unsettled weather will continue through the weekend into
early next week with valley rain, high mountain snow and breezy
winds expected. Temperatures will be quite mild on Monday with
many locations seeing highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...The weather during this period will generally
revolve around a developing warm front. As of 2am, the water vapor
looper was showing a broad swath of moisture oriented from NNE-SSW
right off the coast. Meanwhile the upper level ridge of high
pressure remains poised over the Inland NW. The ridge is expected
to amplify slightly over the area today and tonight, as height
falls continue develop off the coast. Despite the presence of the
ridge we should see the first chance of precipitation this week,
the question is how soon will it develop and what will most of it
fall as. Looking closely at the latest radar mosaics it appears
the front will come through in two swaths. The first was
responsible for the east-west band of light echoes extending along
the WA/OR border and moving slowly northeastward. This one will
likely weaken as it moves farther northward with weakening
isentropic ascent, especially over the eastern third of Washington
and north Idaho. If anything falls out of this band it will likely
be very light. Over central Washington, the chances for measurable
precipitation are a little better due to slightly deeper moisture
combined with weak upslope flow into the Cascades. We suspect most
of the precipitation will fall as rain, however north of Lake
Chelan current wet-bulb temperatures are below freezing and they
may not climb much this morning. So we expect to see primarily
snow. The second surge of precipitation will bring a much better
chance of measurable precipitation. This wave is likely a
reflection of a compact shortwave located over northern California
moving steadily northward. The HRRR suggests this second band will
track into the Wenatchee and Moses Lake area around midday and
then into NE Washington and north Idaho by late afternoon or early
evening. Snow levels climb steadily with this portion of the warm
front. Wet-bulb zero heights reach 6000 feet or higher across the
entire forecast area save a small portion of the north Cascades
mainly impacting the Methow Valley. It`s a tough call as to how
effective the cold air damming will be in this area as the
surrounding air mass is awfully warm. The 850 mb flow maintains a
weak upslope orientation at least through early Friday which is
favorable for keeping snow levels locally down to the valley
floor, however surface temperature per bufkit profiles hover near
or slightly above freezing. We put several inches of snow in the
forecast across the upper Methow Valley however that`s assuming
any snow which falls is able to accumulate rather than melting as
it falls. Confidence is not high due to the precarious temperature
profiles. Elsewhere we are much more confident about primarily a
rain event. Rainfall totals should range from .15-35 inches across
the northern mountains and extending into the northern Idaho
Panhandle, with lighter amounts across southern Washington and the
central Panhandle. Near the Cascades, precipitation amounts could
range from 0.30-0.70 inches.

For Friday, the ridge finally gives way and a sw-ne oriented upper
level jet pokes into the southern portions of the region by
midday. This will turn the steady warm frontal precipitation to
more of a showery regime with most of the precipitation occurring
near the cold front. The cold front will likely end the
precipitation threat in the lee of the Cascades during the morning
hours as the upslope flow turns to a downslope westerly regime.
Meanwhile we expect the shower coverage to increase over the
eastern third of Washington and over the Panhandle during the
afternoon as the front destabilizes the atmosphere and enhances
any orographic ascent. Generally speaking the precipitation
amounts from the cold front will be lighter than whats produced
from the warm front.

Temperatures will remain milder both days
over the eastern third of Washington and the Idaho Panhandle with
highs in the 40s to middle 50s. Cooler temperatures will remain a
fixture over central Washington today due to the cold air damming
with highs in the 30s to lower 40s. The cold front should enhance
mixing on Friday bringing an end to the inversions with highs
climbing into the upper 30s to middle 40s. fx

Friday night through Wednesday...A mild and unsettled weather
pattern is expected this weekend through at least the middle of
next week. Initially a slightly cooler air mass will move in
Friday night and Saturday as an upper trough passes through. Mid
level westerly flow will favor most of these showers for the
Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle. Snow levels by Saturday
morning lower to 3000-4000 feet with snow showers expected over
the mountain passes. Then an atmospheric river of subtropical
moisture becomes aimed at the area Saturday night into Sunday.
This will bring more rain and snow with snow levels rapidly rising
from 2500-4000 feet initially early Sunday to 6000-7000 feet
Monday as a warm front passes through. The atmospheric river
begins to lift north Sunday night into Monday to near or just
north of the Canadian border by Monday afternoon. Strong mid
level westerly flow throughout this event will favor moderate to
heavy precipitation for the Cascade crest and in the mountains of
the Idaho Panhandle with added orographic lift...with mainly
light amounts over Central and Eastern Washington as a strong rain
shadow develops. Meanwhile Monday into Tuesday a surface low
tracking into southern BC will result in a strengthening south-
southwest winds which combined with the warmer air mass will lead
to increased snow melt for areas that have snow currently. 850mb
winds increasing to 30-45 kts will likely result in breezy to
windy conditions over the region...especially the Upper Columbia
Basin, Spokane area, and Palouse.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFS: Upper level ridge remains fixed over the Inland NW during
this period while a warm front will bring an increasing threat of
rain to most of the TAF sites. Before the front arrives we are
dealing with yet another round of fog. It`s very difficult to tell
how widespread it is since the low clouds are being shielded by high
clouds above. As of 4am, most of the LIFR/IFR fog was around GEG and
FAFB but low dewpoint depressions suggest it could easily develop at
COE SFF and MWH as well. Confidence is low though so we will
generally mention partial fog and the possibility of rapidly
changing visibilities. By 18z or so the fog threat will decrease for
all sites with VFR conditions generally prevailing at all sites. The
threat of rain will then develop by late afternoon or early evening.
Persistent rain is then expected overnight at all sites except PUW
and LWS. Cigs will gradually fall and MVFR conditions will likely
develop. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        45  38  47  34  45  35 /  10  60  70  50  40  60
Coeur d`Alene  46  37  47  36  45  34 /  10  70  70  70  60  70
Pullman        51  40  52  38  47  36 /  20  30  40  60  40  70
Lewiston       55  44  57  41  54  40 /  10  20  30  50  30  60
Colville       40  34  41  33  43  35 /  10  80  80  50  50  60
Sandpoint      41  35  41  34  42  34 /  10  80  80  90  60  70
Kellogg        42  37  43  35  39  33 /  10  70  60  90  80  90
Moses Lake     46  38  49  34  52  38 /  20  50  40  30  10  40
Wenatchee      39  34  44  33  47  35 /  50  80  50  20  10  50
Omak           38  35  37  30  42  33 /  30  90  70  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 111213
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
417 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move across the Inland Northwest today and
tonight spreading a chance of rain across much of the area with
snow levels at the highest mountain elevation except near the
north Cascades. This front will be followed by the passage of a
cold front on Friday which will bring another chance of
precipitation to much of the area as well as slightly lower snow
levels. Unsettled weather will continue through the weekend into
early next week with valley rain, high mountain snow and breezy
winds expected. Temperatures will be quite mild on Monday with
many locations seeing highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...The weather during this period will generally
revolve around a developing warm front. As of 2am, the water vapor
looper was showing a broad swath of moisture oriented from NNE-SSW
right off the coast. Meanwhile the upper level ridge of high
pressure remains poised over the Inland NW. The ridge is expected
to amplify slightly over the area today and tonight, as height
falls continue develop off the coast. Despite the presence of the
ridge we should see the first chance of precipitation this week,
the question is how soon will it develop and what will most of it
fall as. Looking closely at the latest radar mosaics it appears
the front will come through in two swaths. The first was
responsible for the east-west band of light echoes extending along
the WA/OR border and moving slowly northeastward. This one will
likely weaken as it moves farther northward with weakening
isentropic ascent, especially over the eastern third of Washington
and north Idaho. If anything falls out of this band it will likely
be very light. Over central Washington, the chances for measurable
precipitation are a little better due to slightly deeper moisture
combined with weak upslope flow into the Cascades. We suspect most
of the precipitation will fall as rain, however north of Lake
Chelan current wet-bulb temperatures are below freezing and they
may not climb much this morning. So we expect to see primarily
snow. The second surge of precipitation will bring a much better
chance of measurable precipitation. This wave is likely a
reflection of a compact shortwave located over northern California
moving steadily northward. The HRRR suggests this second band will
track into the Wenatchee and Moses Lake area around midday and
then into NE Washington and north Idaho by late afternoon or early
evening. Snow levels climb steadily with this portion of the warm
front. Wet-bulb zero heights reach 6000 feet or higher across the
entire forecast area save a small portion of the north Cascades
mainly impacting the Methow Valley. It`s a tough call as to how
effective the cold air damming will be in this area as the
surrounding air mass is awfully warm. The 850 mb flow maintains a
weak upslope orientation at least through early Friday which is
favorable for keeping snow levels locally down to the valley
floor, however surface temperature per bufkit profiles hover near
or slightly above freezing. We put several inches of snow in the
forecast across the upper Methow Valley however that`s assuming
any snow which falls is able to accumulate rather than melting as
it falls. Confidence is not high due to the precarious temperature
profiles. Elsewhere we are much more confident about primarily a
rain event. Rainfall totals should range from .15-35 inches across
the northern mountains and extending into the northern Idaho
Panhandle, with lighter amounts across southern Washington and the
central Panhandle. Near the Cascades, precipitation amounts could
range from 0.30-0.70 inches.

For Friday, the ridge finally gives way and a sw-ne oriented upper
level jet pokes into the southern portions of the region by
midday. This will turn the steady warm frontal precipitation to
more of a showery regime with most of the precipitation occurring
near the cold front. The cold front will likely end the
precipitation threat in the lee of the Cascades during the morning
hours as the upslope flow turns to a downslope westerly regime.
Meanwhile we expect the shower coverage to increase over the
eastern third of Washington and over the Panhandle during the
afternoon as the front destabilizes the atmosphere and enhances
any orographic ascent. Generally speaking the precipitation
amounts from the cold front will be lighter than whats produced
from the warm front.

Temperatures will remain milder both days
over the eastern third of Washington and the Idaho Panhandle with
highs in the 40s to middle 50s. Cooler temperatures will remain a
fixture over central Washington today due to the cold air damming
with highs in the 30s to lower 40s. The cold front should enhance
mixing on Friday bringing an end to the inversions with highs
climbing into the upper 30s to middle 40s. fx

Friday night through Wednesday...A mild and unsettled weather
pattern is expected this weekend through at least the middle of
next week. Initially a slightly cooler air mass will move in
Friday night and Saturday as an upper trough passes through. Mid
level westerly flow will favor most of these showers for the
Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle. Snow levels by Saturday
morning lower to 3000-4000 feet with snow showers expected over
the mountain passes. Then an atmospheric river of subtropical
moisture becomes aimed at the area Saturday night into Sunday.
This will bring more rain and snow with snow levels rapidly rising
from 2500-4000 feet initially early Sunday to 6000-7000 feet
Monday as a warm front passes through. The atmospheric river
begins to lift north Sunday night into Monday to near or just
north of the Canadian border by Monday afternoon. Strong mid
level westerly flow throughout this event will favor moderate to
heavy precipitation for the Cascade crest and in the mountains of
the Idaho Panhandle with added orographic lift...with mainly
light amounts over Central and Eastern Washington as a strong rain
shadow develops. Meanwhile Monday into Tuesday a surface low
tracking into southern BC will result in a strengthening south-
southwest winds which combined with the warmer air mass will lead
to increased snow melt for areas that have snow currently. 850mb
winds increasing to 30-45 kts will likely result in breezy to
windy conditions over the region...especially the Upper Columbia
Basin, Spokane area, and Palouse.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFS: Upper level ridge remains fixed over the Inland NW during
this period while a warm front will bring an increasing threat of
rain to most of the TAF sites. Before the front arrives we are
dealing with yet another round of fog. It`s very difficult to tell
how widespread it is since the low clouds are being shielded by high
clouds above. As of 4am, most of the LIFR/IFR fog was around GEG and
FAFB but low dewpoint depressions suggest it could easily develop at
COE SFF and MWH as well. Confidence is low though so we will
generally mention partial fog and the possibility of rapidly
changing visibilities. By 18z or so the fog threat will decrease for
all sites with VFR conditions generally prevailing at all sites. The
threat of rain will then develop by late afternoon or early evening.
Persistent rain is then expected overnight at all sites except PUW
and LWS. Cigs will gradually fall and MVFR conditions will likely
develop. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        45  38  47  34  45  35 /  10  60  70  50  40  60
Coeur d`Alene  46  37  47  36  45  34 /  10  70  70  70  60  70
Pullman        51  40  52  38  47  36 /  20  30  40  60  40  70
Lewiston       55  44  57  41  54  40 /  10  20  30  50  30  60
Colville       40  34  41  33  43  35 /  10  80  80  50  50  60
Sandpoint      41  35  41  34  42  34 /  10  80  80  90  60  70
Kellogg        42  37  43  35  39  33 /  10  70  60  90  80  90
Moses Lake     46  38  49  34  52  38 /  20  50  40  30  10  40
Wenatchee      39  34  44  33  47  35 /  50  80  50  20  10  50
Omak           38  35  37  30  42  33 /  30  90  70  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 111213
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
417 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move across the Inland Northwest today and
tonight spreading a chance of rain across much of the area with
snow levels at the highest mountain elevation except near the
north Cascades. This front will be followed by the passage of a
cold front on Friday which will bring another chance of
precipitation to much of the area as well as slightly lower snow
levels. Unsettled weather will continue through the weekend into
early next week with valley rain, high mountain snow and breezy
winds expected. Temperatures will be quite mild on Monday with
many locations seeing highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...The weather during this period will generally
revolve around a developing warm front. As of 2am, the water vapor
looper was showing a broad swath of moisture oriented from NNE-SSW
right off the coast. Meanwhile the upper level ridge of high
pressure remains poised over the Inland NW. The ridge is expected
to amplify slightly over the area today and tonight, as height
falls continue develop off the coast. Despite the presence of the
ridge we should see the first chance of precipitation this week,
the question is how soon will it develop and what will most of it
fall as. Looking closely at the latest radar mosaics it appears
the front will come through in two swaths. The first was
responsible for the east-west band of light echoes extending along
the WA/OR border and moving slowly northeastward. This one will
likely weaken as it moves farther northward with weakening
isentropic ascent, especially over the eastern third of Washington
and north Idaho. If anything falls out of this band it will likely
be very light. Over central Washington, the chances for measurable
precipitation are a little better due to slightly deeper moisture
combined with weak upslope flow into the Cascades. We suspect most
of the precipitation will fall as rain, however north of Lake
Chelan current wet-bulb temperatures are below freezing and they
may not climb much this morning. So we expect to see primarily
snow. The second surge of precipitation will bring a much better
chance of measurable precipitation. This wave is likely a
reflection of a compact shortwave located over northern California
moving steadily northward. The HRRR suggests this second band will
track into the Wenatchee and Moses Lake area around midday and
then into NE Washington and north Idaho by late afternoon or early
evening. Snow levels climb steadily with this portion of the warm
front. Wet-bulb zero heights reach 6000 feet or higher across the
entire forecast area save a small portion of the north Cascades
mainly impacting the Methow Valley. It`s a tough call as to how
effective the cold air damming will be in this area as the
surrounding air mass is awfully warm. The 850 mb flow maintains a
weak upslope orientation at least through early Friday which is
favorable for keeping snow levels locally down to the valley
floor, however surface temperature per bufkit profiles hover near
or slightly above freezing. We put several inches of snow in the
forecast across the upper Methow Valley however that`s assuming
any snow which falls is able to accumulate rather than melting as
it falls. Confidence is not high due to the precarious temperature
profiles. Elsewhere we are much more confident about primarily a
rain event. Rainfall totals should range from .15-35 inches across
the northern mountains and extending into the northern Idaho
Panhandle, with lighter amounts across southern Washington and the
central Panhandle. Near the Cascades, precipitation amounts could
range from 0.30-0.70 inches.

For Friday, the ridge finally gives way and a sw-ne oriented upper
level jet pokes into the southern portions of the region by
midday. This will turn the steady warm frontal precipitation to
more of a showery regime with most of the precipitation occurring
near the cold front. The cold front will likely end the
precipitation threat in the lee of the Cascades during the morning
hours as the upslope flow turns to a downslope westerly regime.
Meanwhile we expect the shower coverage to increase over the
eastern third of Washington and over the Panhandle during the
afternoon as the front destabilizes the atmosphere and enhances
any orographic ascent. Generally speaking the precipitation
amounts from the cold front will be lighter than whats produced
from the warm front.

Temperatures will remain milder both days
over the eastern third of Washington and the Idaho Panhandle with
highs in the 40s to middle 50s. Cooler temperatures will remain a
fixture over central Washington today due to the cold air damming
with highs in the 30s to lower 40s. The cold front should enhance
mixing on Friday bringing an end to the inversions with highs
climbing into the upper 30s to middle 40s. fx

Friday night through Wednesday...A mild and unsettled weather
pattern is expected this weekend through at least the middle of
next week. Initially a slightly cooler air mass will move in
Friday night and Saturday as an upper trough passes through. Mid
level westerly flow will favor most of these showers for the
Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle. Snow levels by Saturday
morning lower to 3000-4000 feet with snow showers expected over
the mountain passes. Then an atmospheric river of subtropical
moisture becomes aimed at the area Saturday night into Sunday.
This will bring more rain and snow with snow levels rapidly rising
from 2500-4000 feet initially early Sunday to 6000-7000 feet
Monday as a warm front passes through. The atmospheric river
begins to lift north Sunday night into Monday to near or just
north of the Canadian border by Monday afternoon. Strong mid
level westerly flow throughout this event will favor moderate to
heavy precipitation for the Cascade crest and in the mountains of
the Idaho Panhandle with added orographic lift...with mainly
light amounts over Central and Eastern Washington as a strong rain
shadow develops. Meanwhile Monday into Tuesday a surface low
tracking into southern BC will result in a strengthening south-
southwest winds which combined with the warmer air mass will lead
to increased snow melt for areas that have snow currently. 850mb
winds increasing to 30-45 kts will likely result in breezy to
windy conditions over the region...especially the Upper Columbia
Basin, Spokane area, and Palouse.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFS: Upper level ridge remains fixed over the Inland NW during
this period while a warm front will bring an increasing threat of
rain to most of the TAF sites. Before the front arrives we are
dealing with yet another round of fog. It`s very difficult to tell
how widespread it is since the low clouds are being shielded by high
clouds above. As of 4am, most of the LIFR/IFR fog was around GEG and
FAFB but low dewpoint depressions suggest it could easily develop at
COE SFF and MWH as well. Confidence is low though so we will
generally mention partial fog and the possibility of rapidly
changing visibilities. By 18z or so the fog threat will decrease for
all sites with VFR conditions generally prevailing at all sites. The
threat of rain will then develop by late afternoon or early evening.
Persistent rain is then expected overnight at all sites except PUW
and LWS. Cigs will gradually fall and MVFR conditions will likely
develop. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        45  38  47  34  45  35 /  10  60  70  50  40  60
Coeur d`Alene  46  37  47  36  45  34 /  10  70  70  70  60  70
Pullman        51  40  52  38  47  36 /  20  30  40  60  40  70
Lewiston       55  44  57  41  54  40 /  10  20  30  50  30  60
Colville       40  34  41  33  43  35 /  10  80  80  50  50  60
Sandpoint      41  35  41  34  42  34 /  10  80  80  90  60  70
Kellogg        42  37  43  35  39  33 /  10  70  60  90  80  90
Moses Lake     46  38  49  34  52  38 /  20  50  40  30  10  40
Wenatchee      39  34  44  33  47  35 /  50  80  50  20  10  50
Omak           38  35  37  30  42  33 /  30  90  70  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 111213
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
417 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move across the Inland Northwest today and
tonight spreading a chance of rain across much of the area with
snow levels at the highest mountain elevation except near the
north Cascades. This front will be followed by the passage of a
cold front on Friday which will bring another chance of
precipitation to much of the area as well as slightly lower snow
levels. Unsettled weather will continue through the weekend into
early next week with valley rain, high mountain snow and breezy
winds expected. Temperatures will be quite mild on Monday with
many locations seeing highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...The weather during this period will generally
revolve around a developing warm front. As of 2am, the water vapor
looper was showing a broad swath of moisture oriented from NNE-SSW
right off the coast. Meanwhile the upper level ridge of high
pressure remains poised over the Inland NW. The ridge is expected
to amplify slightly over the area today and tonight, as height
falls continue develop off the coast. Despite the presence of the
ridge we should see the first chance of precipitation this week,
the question is how soon will it develop and what will most of it
fall as. Looking closely at the latest radar mosaics it appears
the front will come through in two swaths. The first was
responsible for the east-west band of light echoes extending along
the WA/OR border and moving slowly northeastward. This one will
likely weaken as it moves farther northward with weakening
isentropic ascent, especially over the eastern third of Washington
and north Idaho. If anything falls out of this band it will likely
be very light. Over central Washington, the chances for measurable
precipitation are a little better due to slightly deeper moisture
combined with weak upslope flow into the Cascades. We suspect most
of the precipitation will fall as rain, however north of Lake
Chelan current wet-bulb temperatures are below freezing and they
may not climb much this morning. So we expect to see primarily
snow. The second surge of precipitation will bring a much better
chance of measurable precipitation. This wave is likely a
reflection of a compact shortwave located over northern California
moving steadily northward. The HRRR suggests this second band will
track into the Wenatchee and Moses Lake area around midday and
then into NE Washington and north Idaho by late afternoon or early
evening. Snow levels climb steadily with this portion of the warm
front. Wet-bulb zero heights reach 6000 feet or higher across the
entire forecast area save a small portion of the north Cascades
mainly impacting the Methow Valley. It`s a tough call as to how
effective the cold air damming will be in this area as the
surrounding air mass is awfully warm. The 850 mb flow maintains a
weak upslope orientation at least through early Friday which is
favorable for keeping snow levels locally down to the valley
floor, however surface temperature per bufkit profiles hover near
or slightly above freezing. We put several inches of snow in the
forecast across the upper Methow Valley however that`s assuming
any snow which falls is able to accumulate rather than melting as
it falls. Confidence is not high due to the precarious temperature
profiles. Elsewhere we are much more confident about primarily a
rain event. Rainfall totals should range from .15-35 inches across
the northern mountains and extending into the northern Idaho
Panhandle, with lighter amounts across southern Washington and the
central Panhandle. Near the Cascades, precipitation amounts could
range from 0.30-0.70 inches.

For Friday, the ridge finally gives way and a sw-ne oriented upper
level jet pokes into the southern portions of the region by
midday. This will turn the steady warm frontal precipitation to
more of a showery regime with most of the precipitation occurring
near the cold front. The cold front will likely end the
precipitation threat in the lee of the Cascades during the morning
hours as the upslope flow turns to a downslope westerly regime.
Meanwhile we expect the shower coverage to increase over the
eastern third of Washington and over the Panhandle during the
afternoon as the front destabilizes the atmosphere and enhances
any orographic ascent. Generally speaking the precipitation
amounts from the cold front will be lighter than whats produced
from the warm front.

Temperatures will remain milder both days
over the eastern third of Washington and the Idaho Panhandle with
highs in the 40s to middle 50s. Cooler temperatures will remain a
fixture over central Washington today due to the cold air damming
with highs in the 30s to lower 40s. The cold front should enhance
mixing on Friday bringing an end to the inversions with highs
climbing into the upper 30s to middle 40s. fx

Friday night through Wednesday...A mild and unsettled weather
pattern is expected this weekend through at least the middle of
next week. Initially a slightly cooler air mass will move in
Friday night and Saturday as an upper trough passes through. Mid
level westerly flow will favor most of these showers for the
Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle. Snow levels by Saturday
morning lower to 3000-4000 feet with snow showers expected over
the mountain passes. Then an atmospheric river of subtropical
moisture becomes aimed at the area Saturday night into Sunday.
This will bring more rain and snow with snow levels rapidly rising
from 2500-4000 feet initially early Sunday to 6000-7000 feet
Monday as a warm front passes through. The atmospheric river
begins to lift north Sunday night into Monday to near or just
north of the Canadian border by Monday afternoon. Strong mid
level westerly flow throughout this event will favor moderate to
heavy precipitation for the Cascade crest and in the mountains of
the Idaho Panhandle with added orographic lift...with mainly
light amounts over Central and Eastern Washington as a strong rain
shadow develops. Meanwhile Monday into Tuesday a surface low
tracking into southern BC will result in a strengthening south-
southwest winds which combined with the warmer air mass will lead
to increased snow melt for areas that have snow currently. 850mb
winds increasing to 30-45 kts will likely result in breezy to
windy conditions over the region...especially the Upper Columbia
Basin, Spokane area, and Palouse.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFS: Upper level ridge remains fixed over the Inland NW during
this period while a warm front will bring an increasing threat of
rain to most of the TAF sites. Before the front arrives we are
dealing with yet another round of fog. It`s very difficult to tell
how widespread it is since the low clouds are being shielded by high
clouds above. As of 4am, most of the LIFR/IFR fog was around GEG and
FAFB but low dewpoint depressions suggest it could easily develop at
COE SFF and MWH as well. Confidence is low though so we will
generally mention partial fog and the possibility of rapidly
changing visibilities. By 18z or so the fog threat will decrease for
all sites with VFR conditions generally prevailing at all sites. The
threat of rain will then develop by late afternoon or early evening.
Persistent rain is then expected overnight at all sites except PUW
and LWS. Cigs will gradually fall and MVFR conditions will likely
develop. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        45  38  47  34  45  35 /  10  60  70  50  40  60
Coeur d`Alene  46  37  47  36  45  34 /  10  70  70  70  60  70
Pullman        51  40  52  38  47  36 /  20  30  40  60  40  70
Lewiston       55  44  57  41  54  40 /  10  20  30  50  30  60
Colville       40  34  41  33  43  35 /  10  80  80  50  50  60
Sandpoint      41  35  41  34  42  34 /  10  80  80  90  60  70
Kellogg        42  37  43  35  39  33 /  10  70  60  90  80  90
Moses Lake     46  38  49  34  52  38 /  20  50  40  30  10  40
Wenatchee      39  34  44  33  47  35 /  50  80  50  20  10  50
Omak           38  35  37  30  42  33 /  30  90  70  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 111213
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
417 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move across the Inland Northwest today and
tonight spreading a chance of rain across much of the area with
snow levels at the highest mountain elevation except near the
north Cascades. This front will be followed by the passage of a
cold front on Friday which will bring another chance of
precipitation to much of the area as well as slightly lower snow
levels. Unsettled weather will continue through the weekend into
early next week with valley rain, high mountain snow and breezy
winds expected. Temperatures will be quite mild on Monday with
many locations seeing highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...The weather during this period will generally
revolve around a developing warm front. As of 2am, the water vapor
looper was showing a broad swath of moisture oriented from NNE-SSW
right off the coast. Meanwhile the upper level ridge of high
pressure remains poised over the Inland NW. The ridge is expected
to amplify slightly over the area today and tonight, as height
falls continue develop off the coast. Despite the presence of the
ridge we should see the first chance of precipitation this week,
the question is how soon will it develop and what will most of it
fall as. Looking closely at the latest radar mosaics it appears
the front will come through in two swaths. The first was
responsible for the east-west band of light echoes extending along
the WA/OR border and moving slowly northeastward. This one will
likely weaken as it moves farther northward with weakening
isentropic ascent, especially over the eastern third of Washington
and north Idaho. If anything falls out of this band it will likely
be very light. Over central Washington, the chances for measurable
precipitation are a little better due to slightly deeper moisture
combined with weak upslope flow into the Cascades. We suspect most
of the precipitation will fall as rain, however north of Lake
Chelan current wet-bulb temperatures are below freezing and they
may not climb much this morning. So we expect to see primarily
snow. The second surge of precipitation will bring a much better
chance of measurable precipitation. This wave is likely a
reflection of a compact shortwave located over northern California
moving steadily northward. The HRRR suggests this second band will
track into the Wenatchee and Moses Lake area around midday and
then into NE Washington and north Idaho by late afternoon or early
evening. Snow levels climb steadily with this portion of the warm
front. Wet-bulb zero heights reach 6000 feet or higher across the
entire forecast area save a small portion of the north Cascades
mainly impacting the Methow Valley. It`s a tough call as to how
effective the cold air damming will be in this area as the
surrounding air mass is awfully warm. The 850 mb flow maintains a
weak upslope orientation at least through early Friday which is
favorable for keeping snow levels locally down to the valley
floor, however surface temperature per bufkit profiles hover near
or slightly above freezing. We put several inches of snow in the
forecast across the upper Methow Valley however that`s assuming
any snow which falls is able to accumulate rather than melting as
it falls. Confidence is not high due to the precarious temperature
profiles. Elsewhere we are much more confident about primarily a
rain event. Rainfall totals should range from .15-35 inches across
the northern mountains and extending into the northern Idaho
Panhandle, with lighter amounts across southern Washington and the
central Panhandle. Near the Cascades, precipitation amounts could
range from 0.30-0.70 inches.

For Friday, the ridge finally gives way and a sw-ne oriented upper
level jet pokes into the southern portions of the region by
midday. This will turn the steady warm frontal precipitation to
more of a showery regime with most of the precipitation occurring
near the cold front. The cold front will likely end the
precipitation threat in the lee of the Cascades during the morning
hours as the upslope flow turns to a downslope westerly regime.
Meanwhile we expect the shower coverage to increase over the
eastern third of Washington and over the Panhandle during the
afternoon as the front destabilizes the atmosphere and enhances
any orographic ascent. Generally speaking the precipitation
amounts from the cold front will be lighter than whats produced
from the warm front.

Temperatures will remain milder both days
over the eastern third of Washington and the Idaho Panhandle with
highs in the 40s to middle 50s. Cooler temperatures will remain a
fixture over central Washington today due to the cold air damming
with highs in the 30s to lower 40s. The cold front should enhance
mixing on Friday bringing an end to the inversions with highs
climbing into the upper 30s to middle 40s. fx

Friday night through Wednesday...A mild and unsettled weather
pattern is expected this weekend through at least the middle of
next week. Initially a slightly cooler air mass will move in
Friday night and Saturday as an upper trough passes through. Mid
level westerly flow will favor most of these showers for the
Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle. Snow levels by Saturday
morning lower to 3000-4000 feet with snow showers expected over
the mountain passes. Then an atmospheric river of subtropical
moisture becomes aimed at the area Saturday night into Sunday.
This will bring more rain and snow with snow levels rapidly rising
from 2500-4000 feet initially early Sunday to 6000-7000 feet
Monday as a warm front passes through. The atmospheric river
begins to lift north Sunday night into Monday to near or just
north of the Canadian border by Monday afternoon. Strong mid
level westerly flow throughout this event will favor moderate to
heavy precipitation for the Cascade crest and in the mountains of
the Idaho Panhandle with added orographic lift...with mainly
light amounts over Central and Eastern Washington as a strong rain
shadow develops. Meanwhile Monday into Tuesday a surface low
tracking into southern BC will result in a strengthening south-
southwest winds which combined with the warmer air mass will lead
to increased snow melt for areas that have snow currently. 850mb
winds increasing to 30-45 kts will likely result in breezy to
windy conditions over the region...especially the Upper Columbia
Basin, Spokane area, and Palouse.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFS: Upper level ridge remains fixed over the Inland NW during
this period while a warm front will bring an increasing threat of
rain to most of the TAF sites. Before the front arrives we are
dealing with yet another round of fog. It`s very difficult to tell
how widespread it is since the low clouds are being shielded by high
clouds above. As of 4am, most of the LIFR/IFR fog was around GEG and
FAFB but low dewpoint depressions suggest it could easily develop at
COE SFF and MWH as well. Confidence is low though so we will
generally mention partial fog and the possibility of rapidly
changing visibilities. By 18z or so the fog threat will decrease for
all sites with VFR conditions generally prevailing at all sites. The
threat of rain will then develop by late afternoon or early evening.
Persistent rain is then expected overnight at all sites except PUW
and LWS. Cigs will gradually fall and MVFR conditions will likely
develop. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        45  38  47  34  45  35 /  10  60  70  50  40  60
Coeur d`Alene  46  37  47  36  45  34 /  10  70  70  70  60  70
Pullman        51  40  52  38  47  36 /  20  30  40  60  40  70
Lewiston       55  44  57  41  54  40 /  10  20  30  50  30  60
Colville       40  34  41  33  43  35 /  10  80  80  50  50  60
Sandpoint      41  35  41  34  42  34 /  10  80  80  90  60  70
Kellogg        42  37  43  35  39  33 /  10  70  60  90  80  90
Moses Lake     46  38  49  34  52  38 /  20  50  40  30  10  40
Wenatchee      39  34  44  33  47  35 /  50  80  50  20  10  50
Omak           38  35  37  30  42  33 /  30  90  70  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KPQR 111142
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
342 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON REMAIN IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE INLAND OVER EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND OREGON AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT NEAR 140W. A
WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY...FOLLOWED BY THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ONSHORE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN TO PASS
ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FOR
SHOWERS. ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR MORE RAIN AND FOR SOME SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...THEN LINGER
THROUGH SUNDAY AND PRODUCE MORE RAIN WHILE SNOW LEVELS RISE IN THE
CASCADES. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE THE MAIN COLDER UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH FALLING SNOW LEVELS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE WEAK SYSTEM THAT MOVED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY REMAINED OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON OVERNIGHT...AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SOME AREAS OF RAIN TO
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON AT TIMES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH INTERIOR AREAS.
ECHOES HAVE BEGUN PICKING UP OFF THE NORTH OREGON COAST ALREADY EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND THIS MAY BE THE MAIN BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE NORTH INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AND THIS EVENING...BUT WILL
PROBABLY LINGER FROM ABOUT PORTLAND NORTH INLAND.

THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OUT AROUND 135W THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH IN THE INLAND AREAS IN
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY...AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
CASCADES BY 4 PM FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE CASCADE
PASSES FOR MOST OF THIS EVENT.

SNOW LEVELS FALL TO BELOW THE PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
AND AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THAT WILL PRODUCE A DECENT SHOT OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AN SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK A LITTLE
BELOW ADVISORY AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT.

THIS IS FORECAST TO BE FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH
THE COAST LATE SATURDAY AND BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW TWO GOOD WAVES MOVING ALONG THE WARM
FRONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ONE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE OTHER ON
SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS IN THE CASCADES WILL START BELOW THE CASCADE
PASSES SATURDAY NIGHT BUT LIKELY RISE WELL ABOVE THE PASSES ON
SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ADVISORY AMOUNTS WOULD BE SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE THE SNOW LEVEL RISES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
CASCADES. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE PAC NW LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE ECMWF. NOT EXPECTING TO SEE A LOT OF CASCADE SNOW WITH
THIS FRONT AS SNOW LEVELS QUICKLY RISE ABOVE 7000 FT EARLY SUNDAY. WE
COULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN MONDAY AS A TRANSIENT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY AND SHOULD
BRING MORE RAIN AND CASCADE SNOW TO THE REGION...WITH SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING TO AROUND 3500 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST...BUT WILL TREND COOLER
AFTER MONDAY. /64
&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS THE BOARD AT THIS HOUR.WITH CLOUD COVER LIKELY
INHIBITING ANY POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. 00Z GFS20
TIME HEIGHTS ARE PROVING TO BE THE BEST CIG GUIDANCE OF THE AVAILABLE
OPTIONS DURING THE DRY WEATHER OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. CIGS MAY
LOWER CLOSER TO 050 EARLY THIS MORNING BUT APPEAR TO GET STUCK THERE.
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THE INCOMING FRONT AND LAMP GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TREND AWAY FROM IFR VSBY IMPACTS AT THE COASTAL TAF
SITES OF KAST AND KONP AND ARE KEEPING CONDS AS MVFR CIG/VSBY
IMPACTS. INLAND TAF TERMINALS DO NOT REACH MVFR FOR VERY LONG, IF AT
ALL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR OF 025-030 UNDER
RAIN BANDS TODAY ARE POSSIBLE BUT ONLY GIVE ABOUT A 10-20 PCT CHANCE.
BROAD OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING EASTERLY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THE GORGE
TODAY. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANTLY LARGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. ENP IS
GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH THE INCOMING SWELL AS 10 FT COMBINED SEAS
REACHED BUOY 89 AS OF THE 0200 HOUR. STILL COULD EXTEND THE SCA FOR
SEAS OUT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON PER ENP GUIDANCE BUT PREFER TO KEEP
IT COVERED FOR THE PERIODS OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
CONFUSED SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE EVENING
BEFORE A SINGULAR WESTERLY SWELL WILL DOMINATE.

DID LOWER WINDS FOR THIS FIRST WARM FRONTAL PERIOD AS THE SURFACE LOW
WILL PIVOT NORTH AND WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
AND TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT MAINLY STAYING OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. IT WILL STILL COVER A DECENT PORTION OF THE OUTER WATERS. ITS
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE INNER WATERS WILL GET MANY GUSTS
ABOVE 21 KT TODAY BUT DONT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PULL DOWN THE
ADVISORY.

NEXT EVENT ON THE HORIZON APPEARS TO BE A POTENTIAL GALE EVENT
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THOUGH STILL
DIFFER IN THE DETAILS. DECIDED TO TAKE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF WINDS FIELDS. THIS APPROACH YIELDED PEAK GUSTS 35-37 KTS
SATURDAY NIGHT. PREFER TO SEE CONTINUED CONSISTENCY GIVEN THE
WISHY-WASHY AND DECAYING STRENGTH NATURE OF THE MODELS OVER THE LAST
COUPLE EVENTS. AFTER THAT...SEE A COUPLE SHORTER SCA TYPE EVENTS FOR
NEXT WEEK. /JBONK
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
     4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
     FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 AM PST THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 111142
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
342 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON REMAIN IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE INLAND OVER EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND OREGON AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT NEAR 140W. A
WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY...FOLLOWED BY THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ONSHORE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN TO PASS
ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FOR
SHOWERS. ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR MORE RAIN AND FOR SOME SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...THEN LINGER
THROUGH SUNDAY AND PRODUCE MORE RAIN WHILE SNOW LEVELS RISE IN THE
CASCADES. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE THE MAIN COLDER UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH FALLING SNOW LEVELS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE WEAK SYSTEM THAT MOVED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY REMAINED OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON OVERNIGHT...AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SOME AREAS OF RAIN TO
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON AT TIMES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH INTERIOR AREAS.
ECHOES HAVE BEGUN PICKING UP OFF THE NORTH OREGON COAST ALREADY EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND THIS MAY BE THE MAIN BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE NORTH INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AND THIS EVENING...BUT WILL
PROBABLY LINGER FROM ABOUT PORTLAND NORTH INLAND.

THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OUT AROUND 135W THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH IN THE INLAND AREAS IN
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY...AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
CASCADES BY 4 PM FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE CASCADE
PASSES FOR MOST OF THIS EVENT.

SNOW LEVELS FALL TO BELOW THE PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
AND AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THAT WILL PRODUCE A DECENT SHOT OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AN SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK A LITTLE
BELOW ADVISORY AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT.

THIS IS FORECAST TO BE FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH
THE COAST LATE SATURDAY AND BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW TWO GOOD WAVES MOVING ALONG THE WARM
FRONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ONE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE OTHER ON
SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS IN THE CASCADES WILL START BELOW THE CASCADE
PASSES SATURDAY NIGHT BUT LIKELY RISE WELL ABOVE THE PASSES ON
SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ADVISORY AMOUNTS WOULD BE SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE THE SNOW LEVEL RISES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
CASCADES. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE PAC NW LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE ECMWF. NOT EXPECTING TO SEE A LOT OF CASCADE SNOW WITH
THIS FRONT AS SNOW LEVELS QUICKLY RISE ABOVE 7000 FT EARLY SUNDAY. WE
COULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN MONDAY AS A TRANSIENT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY AND SHOULD
BRING MORE RAIN AND CASCADE SNOW TO THE REGION...WITH SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING TO AROUND 3500 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST...BUT WILL TREND COOLER
AFTER MONDAY. /64
&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS THE BOARD AT THIS HOUR.WITH CLOUD COVER LIKELY
INHIBITING ANY POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. 00Z GFS20
TIME HEIGHTS ARE PROVING TO BE THE BEST CIG GUIDANCE OF THE AVAILABLE
OPTIONS DURING THE DRY WEATHER OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. CIGS MAY
LOWER CLOSER TO 050 EARLY THIS MORNING BUT APPEAR TO GET STUCK THERE.
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THE INCOMING FRONT AND LAMP GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TREND AWAY FROM IFR VSBY IMPACTS AT THE COASTAL TAF
SITES OF KAST AND KONP AND ARE KEEPING CONDS AS MVFR CIG/VSBY
IMPACTS. INLAND TAF TERMINALS DO NOT REACH MVFR FOR VERY LONG, IF AT
ALL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR OF 025-030 UNDER
RAIN BANDS TODAY ARE POSSIBLE BUT ONLY GIVE ABOUT A 10-20 PCT CHANCE.
BROAD OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING EASTERLY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THE GORGE
TODAY. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANTLY LARGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. ENP IS
GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH THE INCOMING SWELL AS 10 FT COMBINED SEAS
REACHED BUOY 89 AS OF THE 0200 HOUR. STILL COULD EXTEND THE SCA FOR
SEAS OUT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON PER ENP GUIDANCE BUT PREFER TO KEEP
IT COVERED FOR THE PERIODS OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
CONFUSED SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE EVENING
BEFORE A SINGULAR WESTERLY SWELL WILL DOMINATE.

DID LOWER WINDS FOR THIS FIRST WARM FRONTAL PERIOD AS THE SURFACE LOW
WILL PIVOT NORTH AND WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
AND TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT MAINLY STAYING OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. IT WILL STILL COVER A DECENT PORTION OF THE OUTER WATERS. ITS
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE INNER WATERS WILL GET MANY GUSTS
ABOVE 21 KT TODAY BUT DONT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PULL DOWN THE
ADVISORY.

NEXT EVENT ON THE HORIZON APPEARS TO BE A POTENTIAL GALE EVENT
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THOUGH STILL
DIFFER IN THE DETAILS. DECIDED TO TAKE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF WINDS FIELDS. THIS APPROACH YIELDED PEAK GUSTS 35-37 KTS
SATURDAY NIGHT. PREFER TO SEE CONTINUED CONSISTENCY GIVEN THE
WISHY-WASHY AND DECAYING STRENGTH NATURE OF THE MODELS OVER THE LAST
COUPLE EVENTS. AFTER THAT...SEE A COUPLE SHORTER SCA TYPE EVENTS FOR
NEXT WEEK. /JBONK
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
     4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
     FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 AM PST THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 111142
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
342 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON REMAIN IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE INLAND OVER EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND OREGON AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT NEAR 140W. A
WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY...FOLLOWED BY THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ONSHORE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN TO PASS
ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FOR
SHOWERS. ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR MORE RAIN AND FOR SOME SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...THEN LINGER
THROUGH SUNDAY AND PRODUCE MORE RAIN WHILE SNOW LEVELS RISE IN THE
CASCADES. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE THE MAIN COLDER UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH FALLING SNOW LEVELS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE WEAK SYSTEM THAT MOVED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY REMAINED OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON OVERNIGHT...AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SOME AREAS OF RAIN TO
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON AT TIMES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH INTERIOR AREAS.
ECHOES HAVE BEGUN PICKING UP OFF THE NORTH OREGON COAST ALREADY EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND THIS MAY BE THE MAIN BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE NORTH INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AND THIS EVENING...BUT WILL
PROBABLY LINGER FROM ABOUT PORTLAND NORTH INLAND.

THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OUT AROUND 135W THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH IN THE INLAND AREAS IN
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY...AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
CASCADES BY 4 PM FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE CASCADE
PASSES FOR MOST OF THIS EVENT.

SNOW LEVELS FALL TO BELOW THE PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
AND AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THAT WILL PRODUCE A DECENT SHOT OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AN SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK A LITTLE
BELOW ADVISORY AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT.

THIS IS FORECAST TO BE FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH
THE COAST LATE SATURDAY AND BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW TWO GOOD WAVES MOVING ALONG THE WARM
FRONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ONE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE OTHER ON
SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS IN THE CASCADES WILL START BELOW THE CASCADE
PASSES SATURDAY NIGHT BUT LIKELY RISE WELL ABOVE THE PASSES ON
SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ADVISORY AMOUNTS WOULD BE SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE THE SNOW LEVEL RISES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
CASCADES. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE PAC NW LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE ECMWF. NOT EXPECTING TO SEE A LOT OF CASCADE SNOW WITH
THIS FRONT AS SNOW LEVELS QUICKLY RISE ABOVE 7000 FT EARLY SUNDAY. WE
COULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN MONDAY AS A TRANSIENT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY AND SHOULD
BRING MORE RAIN AND CASCADE SNOW TO THE REGION...WITH SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING TO AROUND 3500 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST...BUT WILL TREND COOLER
AFTER MONDAY. /64
&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS THE BOARD AT THIS HOUR.WITH CLOUD COVER LIKELY
INHIBITING ANY POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. 00Z GFS20
TIME HEIGHTS ARE PROVING TO BE THE BEST CIG GUIDANCE OF THE AVAILABLE
OPTIONS DURING THE DRY WEATHER OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. CIGS MAY
LOWER CLOSER TO 050 EARLY THIS MORNING BUT APPEAR TO GET STUCK THERE.
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THE INCOMING FRONT AND LAMP GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TREND AWAY FROM IFR VSBY IMPACTS AT THE COASTAL TAF
SITES OF KAST AND KONP AND ARE KEEPING CONDS AS MVFR CIG/VSBY
IMPACTS. INLAND TAF TERMINALS DO NOT REACH MVFR FOR VERY LONG, IF AT
ALL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR OF 025-030 UNDER
RAIN BANDS TODAY ARE POSSIBLE BUT ONLY GIVE ABOUT A 10-20 PCT CHANCE.
BROAD OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING EASTERLY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THE GORGE
TODAY. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANTLY LARGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. ENP IS
GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH THE INCOMING SWELL AS 10 FT COMBINED SEAS
REACHED BUOY 89 AS OF THE 0200 HOUR. STILL COULD EXTEND THE SCA FOR
SEAS OUT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON PER ENP GUIDANCE BUT PREFER TO KEEP
IT COVERED FOR THE PERIODS OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
CONFUSED SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE EVENING
BEFORE A SINGULAR WESTERLY SWELL WILL DOMINATE.

DID LOWER WINDS FOR THIS FIRST WARM FRONTAL PERIOD AS THE SURFACE LOW
WILL PIVOT NORTH AND WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
AND TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT MAINLY STAYING OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. IT WILL STILL COVER A DECENT PORTION OF THE OUTER WATERS. ITS
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE INNER WATERS WILL GET MANY GUSTS
ABOVE 21 KT TODAY BUT DONT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PULL DOWN THE
ADVISORY.

NEXT EVENT ON THE HORIZON APPEARS TO BE A POTENTIAL GALE EVENT
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THOUGH STILL
DIFFER IN THE DETAILS. DECIDED TO TAKE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF WINDS FIELDS. THIS APPROACH YIELDED PEAK GUSTS 35-37 KTS
SATURDAY NIGHT. PREFER TO SEE CONTINUED CONSISTENCY GIVEN THE
WISHY-WASHY AND DECAYING STRENGTH NATURE OF THE MODELS OVER THE LAST
COUPLE EVENTS. AFTER THAT...SEE A COUPLE SHORTER SCA TYPE EVENTS FOR
NEXT WEEK. /JBONK
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
     4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
     FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 AM PST THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KOTX 111107
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
307 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move across the Inland Northwest today and
tonight spreading a chance of rain across much of the area with
snow levels at the highest mountain elevation except near the
north Cascades. This front will be followed by the passage of a
cold front on Friday which will bring another chance of
precipitation to much of the area as well as slightly lower snow
levels. Unsettled weather will continue through the weekend into
early next week with valley rain, high mountain snow and breezy
winds expected. Temperatures will be quite mild on Monday with
many locations seeing highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...The weather during this period will generally
revolve around a developing warm front. As of 2am, the water vapor
looper was showing a broad swath of moisture oriented from NNE-SSW
right off the coast. Meanwhile the upper level ridge of high
pressure remains poised over the Inland NW. The ridge is expected
to amplify slightly over the area today and tonight, as height
falls continue develop off the coast. Despite the presence of the
ridge we should see the first chance of precipitation this week,
the question is how soon will it develop and what will most of it
fall as. Looking closely at the latest radar mosaics it appears
the front will come through in two swaths. The first was
responsible for the east-west band of light echoes extending along
the WA/OR border and moving slowly northeastward. This one will
likely weaken as it moves farther northward with weakening
isentropic ascent, especially over the eastern third of Washington
and north Idaho. If anything falls out of this band it will likely
be very light. Over central Washington, the chances for measurable
precipitation are a little better due to slightly deeper moisture
combined with weak upslope flow into the Cascades. We suspect most
of the precipitation will fall as rain, however north of Lake
Chelan current wet-bulb temperatures are below freezing and they
may not climb much this morning. So we expect to see primarily
snow. The second surge of precipitation will bring a much better
chance of measurable precipitation. This wave is likely a
reflection of a compact shortwave located over northern California
moving steadily northward. The HRRR suggests this second band will
track into the Wenatchee and Moses Lake area around midday and
then into NE Washington and north Idaho by late afternoon or early
evening. Snow levels climb steadily with this portion of the warm
front. Wet-bulb zero heights reach 6000 feet or higher across the
entire forecast area save a small portion of the north Cascades
mainly impacting the Methow Valley. It`s a tough call as to how
effective the cold air damming will be in this area as the
surrounding air mass is awfully warm. The 850 mb flow maintains a
weak upslope orientation at least through early Friday which is
favorable for keeping snow levels locally down to the valley
floor, however surface temperature per bufkit profiles hover near
or slightly above freezing. We put several inches of snow in the
forecast across the upper Methow Valley however that`s assuming
any snow which falls is able to accumulate rather than melting as
it falls. Confidence is not high due to the precarious temperature
profiles. Elsewhere we are much more confident about primarily a
rain event. Rainfall totals should range from .15-35 inches across
the northern mountains and extending into the northern Idaho
Panhandle, with lighter amounts across southern Washington and the
central Panhandle. Near the Cascades, precipitation amounts could
range from 0.30-0.70 inches.

For Friday, the ridge finally gives way and a sw-ne oriented upper
level jet pokes into the southern portions of the region by
midday. This will turn the steady warm frontal precipitation to
more of a showery regime with most of the precipitation occurring
near the cold front. The cold front will likely end the
precipitation threat in the lee of the Cascades during the morning
hours as the upslope flow turns to a downslope westerly regime.
Meanwhile we expect the shower coverage to increase over the
eastern third of Washington and over the Panhandle during the
afternoon as the front destabilizes the atmosphere and enhances
any orographic ascent. Generally speaking the precipitation
amounts from the cold front will be lighter than whats produced
from the warm front.

Temperatures will remain milder both days
over the eastern third of Washington and the Idaho Panhandle with
highs in the 40s to middle 50s. Cooler temperatures will remain a
fixture over central Washington today due to the cold air damming
with highs in the 30s to lower 40s. The cold front should enhance
mixing on Friday bringing an end to the inversions with highs
climbing into the upper 30s to middle 40s. fx

Friday night through Wednesday...A mild and unsettled weather
pattern is expected this weekend through at least the middle of
next week. Initially a slightly cooler air mass will move in
Friday night and Saturday as an upper trough passes through. Mid
level westerly flow will favor most of these showers for the
Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle. Snow levels by Saturday
morning lower to 3000-4000 feet with snow showers expected over
the mountain passes. Then an atmospheric river of subtropical
moisture becomes aimed at the area Saturday night into Sunday.
This will bring more rain and snow with snow levels rapidly rising
from 2500-4000 feet initially early Sunday to 6000-7000 feet
Monday as a warm front passes through. The atmospheric river
begins to lift north Sunday night into Monday to near or just
north of the Canadian border by Monday afternoon. Strong mid
level westerly flow throughout this event will favor moderate to
heavy precipitation for the Cascade crest and in the mountains of
the Idaho Panhandle with added orographic lift...with mainly
light amounts over Central and Eastern Washington as a strong rain
shadow develops. Meanwhile Monday into Tuesday a surface low
tracking into southern BC will result in a strengthening south-
southwest winds which combined with the warmer air mass will lead
to increased snow melt for areas that have snow currently. 850mb
winds increasing to 30-45 kts will likely result in breezy to
windy conditions over the region...especially the Upper Columbia
Basin, Spokane area, and Palouse.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS: Weak wave exiting the forecast area this evening but a
few lingering spotty showers remain. The ridge still remains in
place with abundant low level moisture and overnight and early
morning temperatures not too far from their dewpints...therfore
another repeat of MVFR/IFR low stratus ceilings and IFR/LIFR fog
remains in store overnight tonight and early Thursday Morning.
Another weak disturbance will bring more light precipitation to
the aviation area tomorrow. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        45  38  47  34  45  35 /  10  60  70  50  40  60
Coeur d`Alene  46  37  47  36  45  34 /  10  70  70  70  60  70
Pullman        51  40  52  38  47  36 /  20  30  40  60  40  70
Lewiston       55  44  57  41  54  40 /  10  20  30  50  30  60
Colville       40  34  41  33  43  35 /  10  80  80  50  50  60
Sandpoint      41  35  41  34  42  34 /  10  80  80  90  60  70
Kellogg        42  37  43  35  39  33 /  10  70  60  90  80  90
Moses Lake     46  38  49  34  52  38 /  20  50  40  30  10  40
Wenatchee      39  34  44  33  47  35 /  50  80  50  20  10  50
Omak           38  35  37  30  42  33 /  30  90  70  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 111107
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
307 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move across the Inland Northwest today and
tonight spreading a chance of rain across much of the area with
snow levels at the highest mountain elevation except near the
north Cascades. This front will be followed by the passage of a
cold front on Friday which will bring another chance of
precipitation to much of the area as well as slightly lower snow
levels. Unsettled weather will continue through the weekend into
early next week with valley rain, high mountain snow and breezy
winds expected. Temperatures will be quite mild on Monday with
many locations seeing highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...The weather during this period will generally
revolve around a developing warm front. As of 2am, the water vapor
looper was showing a broad swath of moisture oriented from NNE-SSW
right off the coast. Meanwhile the upper level ridge of high
pressure remains poised over the Inland NW. The ridge is expected
to amplify slightly over the area today and tonight, as height
falls continue develop off the coast. Despite the presence of the
ridge we should see the first chance of precipitation this week,
the question is how soon will it develop and what will most of it
fall as. Looking closely at the latest radar mosaics it appears
the front will come through in two swaths. The first was
responsible for the east-west band of light echoes extending along
the WA/OR border and moving slowly northeastward. This one will
likely weaken as it moves farther northward with weakening
isentropic ascent, especially over the eastern third of Washington
and north Idaho. If anything falls out of this band it will likely
be very light. Over central Washington, the chances for measurable
precipitation are a little better due to slightly deeper moisture
combined with weak upslope flow into the Cascades. We suspect most
of the precipitation will fall as rain, however north of Lake
Chelan current wet-bulb temperatures are below freezing and they
may not climb much this morning. So we expect to see primarily
snow. The second surge of precipitation will bring a much better
chance of measurable precipitation. This wave is likely a
reflection of a compact shortwave located over northern California
moving steadily northward. The HRRR suggests this second band will
track into the Wenatchee and Moses Lake area around midday and
then into NE Washington and north Idaho by late afternoon or early
evening. Snow levels climb steadily with this portion of the warm
front. Wet-bulb zero heights reach 6000 feet or higher across the
entire forecast area save a small portion of the north Cascades
mainly impacting the Methow Valley. It`s a tough call as to how
effective the cold air damming will be in this area as the
surrounding air mass is awfully warm. The 850 mb flow maintains a
weak upslope orientation at least through early Friday which is
favorable for keeping snow levels locally down to the valley
floor, however surface temperature per bufkit profiles hover near
or slightly above freezing. We put several inches of snow in the
forecast across the upper Methow Valley however that`s assuming
any snow which falls is able to accumulate rather than melting as
it falls. Confidence is not high due to the precarious temperature
profiles. Elsewhere we are much more confident about primarily a
rain event. Rainfall totals should range from .15-35 inches across
the northern mountains and extending into the northern Idaho
Panhandle, with lighter amounts across southern Washington and the
central Panhandle. Near the Cascades, precipitation amounts could
range from 0.30-0.70 inches.

For Friday, the ridge finally gives way and a sw-ne oriented upper
level jet pokes into the southern portions of the region by
midday. This will turn the steady warm frontal precipitation to
more of a showery regime with most of the precipitation occurring
near the cold front. The cold front will likely end the
precipitation threat in the lee of the Cascades during the morning
hours as the upslope flow turns to a downslope westerly regime.
Meanwhile we expect the shower coverage to increase over the
eastern third of Washington and over the Panhandle during the
afternoon as the front destabilizes the atmosphere and enhances
any orographic ascent. Generally speaking the precipitation
amounts from the cold front will be lighter than whats produced
from the warm front.

Temperatures will remain milder both days
over the eastern third of Washington and the Idaho Panhandle with
highs in the 40s to middle 50s. Cooler temperatures will remain a
fixture over central Washington today due to the cold air damming
with highs in the 30s to lower 40s. The cold front should enhance
mixing on Friday bringing an end to the inversions with highs
climbing into the upper 30s to middle 40s. fx

Friday night through Wednesday...A mild and unsettled weather
pattern is expected this weekend through at least the middle of
next week. Initially a slightly cooler air mass will move in
Friday night and Saturday as an upper trough passes through. Mid
level westerly flow will favor most of these showers for the
Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle. Snow levels by Saturday
morning lower to 3000-4000 feet with snow showers expected over
the mountain passes. Then an atmospheric river of subtropical
moisture becomes aimed at the area Saturday night into Sunday.
This will bring more rain and snow with snow levels rapidly rising
from 2500-4000 feet initially early Sunday to 6000-7000 feet
Monday as a warm front passes through. The atmospheric river
begins to lift north Sunday night into Monday to near or just
north of the Canadian border by Monday afternoon. Strong mid
level westerly flow throughout this event will favor moderate to
heavy precipitation for the Cascade crest and in the mountains of
the Idaho Panhandle with added orographic lift...with mainly
light amounts over Central and Eastern Washington as a strong rain
shadow develops. Meanwhile Monday into Tuesday a surface low
tracking into southern BC will result in a strengthening south-
southwest winds which combined with the warmer air mass will lead
to increased snow melt for areas that have snow currently. 850mb
winds increasing to 30-45 kts will likely result in breezy to
windy conditions over the region...especially the Upper Columbia
Basin, Spokane area, and Palouse.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS: Weak wave exiting the forecast area this evening but a
few lingering spotty showers remain. The ridge still remains in
place with abundant low level moisture and overnight and early
morning temperatures not too far from their dewpints...therfore
another repeat of MVFR/IFR low stratus ceilings and IFR/LIFR fog
remains in store overnight tonight and early Thursday Morning.
Another weak disturbance will bring more light precipitation to
the aviation area tomorrow. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        45  38  47  34  45  35 /  10  60  70  50  40  60
Coeur d`Alene  46  37  47  36  45  34 /  10  70  70  70  60  70
Pullman        51  40  52  38  47  36 /  20  30  40  60  40  70
Lewiston       55  44  57  41  54  40 /  10  20  30  50  30  60
Colville       40  34  41  33  43  35 /  10  80  80  50  50  60
Sandpoint      41  35  41  34  42  34 /  10  80  80  90  60  70
Kellogg        42  37  43  35  39  33 /  10  70  60  90  80  90
Moses Lake     46  38  49  34  52  38 /  20  50  40  30  10  40
Wenatchee      39  34  44  33  47  35 /  50  80  50  20  10  50
Omak           38  35  37  30  42  33 /  30  90  70  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 111107
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
307 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move across the Inland Northwest today and
tonight spreading a chance of rain across much of the area with
snow levels at the highest mountain elevation except near the
north Cascades. This front will be followed by the passage of a
cold front on Friday which will bring another chance of
precipitation to much of the area as well as slightly lower snow
levels. Unsettled weather will continue through the weekend into
early next week with valley rain, high mountain snow and breezy
winds expected. Temperatures will be quite mild on Monday with
many locations seeing highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...The weather during this period will generally
revolve around a developing warm front. As of 2am, the water vapor
looper was showing a broad swath of moisture oriented from NNE-SSW
right off the coast. Meanwhile the upper level ridge of high
pressure remains poised over the Inland NW. The ridge is expected
to amplify slightly over the area today and tonight, as height
falls continue develop off the coast. Despite the presence of the
ridge we should see the first chance of precipitation this week,
the question is how soon will it develop and what will most of it
fall as. Looking closely at the latest radar mosaics it appears
the front will come through in two swaths. The first was
responsible for the east-west band of light echoes extending along
the WA/OR border and moving slowly northeastward. This one will
likely weaken as it moves farther northward with weakening
isentropic ascent, especially over the eastern third of Washington
and north Idaho. If anything falls out of this band it will likely
be very light. Over central Washington, the chances for measurable
precipitation are a little better due to slightly deeper moisture
combined with weak upslope flow into the Cascades. We suspect most
of the precipitation will fall as rain, however north of Lake
Chelan current wet-bulb temperatures are below freezing and they
may not climb much this morning. So we expect to see primarily
snow. The second surge of precipitation will bring a much better
chance of measurable precipitation. This wave is likely a
reflection of a compact shortwave located over northern California
moving steadily northward. The HRRR suggests this second band will
track into the Wenatchee and Moses Lake area around midday and
then into NE Washington and north Idaho by late afternoon or early
evening. Snow levels climb steadily with this portion of the warm
front. Wet-bulb zero heights reach 6000 feet or higher across the
entire forecast area save a small portion of the north Cascades
mainly impacting the Methow Valley. It`s a tough call as to how
effective the cold air damming will be in this area as the
surrounding air mass is awfully warm. The 850 mb flow maintains a
weak upslope orientation at least through early Friday which is
favorable for keeping snow levels locally down to the valley
floor, however surface temperature per bufkit profiles hover near
or slightly above freezing. We put several inches of snow in the
forecast across the upper Methow Valley however that`s assuming
any snow which falls is able to accumulate rather than melting as
it falls. Confidence is not high due to the precarious temperature
profiles. Elsewhere we are much more confident about primarily a
rain event. Rainfall totals should range from .15-35 inches across
the northern mountains and extending into the northern Idaho
Panhandle, with lighter amounts across southern Washington and the
central Panhandle. Near the Cascades, precipitation amounts could
range from 0.30-0.70 inches.

For Friday, the ridge finally gives way and a sw-ne oriented upper
level jet pokes into the southern portions of the region by
midday. This will turn the steady warm frontal precipitation to
more of a showery regime with most of the precipitation occurring
near the cold front. The cold front will likely end the
precipitation threat in the lee of the Cascades during the morning
hours as the upslope flow turns to a downslope westerly regime.
Meanwhile we expect the shower coverage to increase over the
eastern third of Washington and over the Panhandle during the
afternoon as the front destabilizes the atmosphere and enhances
any orographic ascent. Generally speaking the precipitation
amounts from the cold front will be lighter than whats produced
from the warm front.

Temperatures will remain milder both days
over the eastern third of Washington and the Idaho Panhandle with
highs in the 40s to middle 50s. Cooler temperatures will remain a
fixture over central Washington today due to the cold air damming
with highs in the 30s to lower 40s. The cold front should enhance
mixing on Friday bringing an end to the inversions with highs
climbing into the upper 30s to middle 40s. fx

Friday night through Wednesday...A mild and unsettled weather
pattern is expected this weekend through at least the middle of
next week. Initially a slightly cooler air mass will move in
Friday night and Saturday as an upper trough passes through. Mid
level westerly flow will favor most of these showers for the
Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle. Snow levels by Saturday
morning lower to 3000-4000 feet with snow showers expected over
the mountain passes. Then an atmospheric river of subtropical
moisture becomes aimed at the area Saturday night into Sunday.
This will bring more rain and snow with snow levels rapidly rising
from 2500-4000 feet initially early Sunday to 6000-7000 feet
Monday as a warm front passes through. The atmospheric river
begins to lift north Sunday night into Monday to near or just
north of the Canadian border by Monday afternoon. Strong mid
level westerly flow throughout this event will favor moderate to
heavy precipitation for the Cascade crest and in the mountains of
the Idaho Panhandle with added orographic lift...with mainly
light amounts over Central and Eastern Washington as a strong rain
shadow develops. Meanwhile Monday into Tuesday a surface low
tracking into southern BC will result in a strengthening south-
southwest winds which combined with the warmer air mass will lead
to increased snow melt for areas that have snow currently. 850mb
winds increasing to 30-45 kts will likely result in breezy to
windy conditions over the region...especially the Upper Columbia
Basin, Spokane area, and Palouse.  JW

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS: Weak wave exiting the forecast area this evening but a
few lingering spotty showers remain. The ridge still remains in
place with abundant low level moisture and overnight and early
morning temperatures not too far from their dewpints...therfore
another repeat of MVFR/IFR low stratus ceilings and IFR/LIFR fog
remains in store overnight tonight and early Thursday Morning.
Another weak disturbance will bring more light precipitation to
the aviation area tomorrow. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        45  38  47  34  45  35 /  10  60  70  50  40  60
Coeur d`Alene  46  37  47  36  45  34 /  10  70  70  70  60  70
Pullman        51  40  52  38  47  36 /  20  30  40  60  40  70
Lewiston       55  44  57  41  54  40 /  10  20  30  50  30  60
Colville       40  34  41  33  43  35 /  10  80  80  50  50  60
Sandpoint      41  35  41  34  42  34 /  10  80  80  90  60  70
Kellogg        42  37  43  35  39  33 /  10  70  60  90  80  90
Moses Lake     46  38  49  34  52  38 /  20  50  40  30  10  40
Wenatchee      39  34  44  33  47  35 /  50  80  50  20  10  50
Omak           38  35  37  30  42  33 /  30  90  70  30  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 111101
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A PAIR OF WARM FRONTS WILL BRING
RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS EARLY MORNING...BUT
CURRENT RADAR STARTING TO SHOW THAT COMING TO A CLOSE AS ECHOES
STARTING TO EMERGE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST OF RADAR RANGE...SO SHOULD
START TO SEE PRECIP MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CWA BY MID MORNING.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT REGARDING ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...STARTING WITH A WARM FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA TODAY. AS PRECIP FROM THAT FRONT IS ALREADY VISIBLE ON
RADAR...HAVE TWEAKED POPS UP A BIT FOR THIS MORNING...BUT TIMING
LOOKS GOOD FOR PRECIP TO GENERALLY START LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STILL PROGGED FOR HITTING THE COAST
EARLY FRIDAY AM...IMPACTING MOST OF THE CWA BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS WILL KEEP SHOWERS OVER THE AREA FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THERE MIGHT JUST BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM
RAIN SATURDAY MORNING...BUT ANOTHER APPROACHING SYSTEM LOOKS TO COME
ONSHORE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL
THAT WILL STRETCH INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPS STAYING GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S FOR LOWLAND LOCATIONS IN
THE NEAR TERM...THE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY SHOULD BRING LOWLAND TEMPS DOWN TO RIGHT AROUND
OR JUST SHY OF 50. SIMILARLY...SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH
FOR MUCH OF THE NEAR TERM AS WELL...GENERALLY ABOVE 5000 FT PRE-
FRONT AND STARTING TO REBOUND SUNDAY POST-FRONT. IN THE TIME
BETWEEN...HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 3000-
4000 FT...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN SNOW IN THE PASSES.

NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST THAT HAVE NOT
ALREADY BEEN MENTIONED...ONLY UPDATES TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT LATEST
MODEL RUNS. SMR

.LONG TERM...WHILE GENERAL TREND FOR MONDAY LINES UP WITH BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF...THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE DETAILS. GFS WANTS TO
PUSH PRECIP UP AND OUT OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK RIDGE IN PLACE. EURO
ALSO HAS WEAK RIDGE IN PLACE...BUT KEEPS PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH...IN
THIS INSTANCE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE SOUND TO ALL POINTS
NORTH. PRETTY DECENT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC MAY PUMP UP
MOISTURE INTO SAID WEAK RIDGE...KEEPING THE THREAT OF PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST AT LEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY EVEN
FURTHER.

MONDAY PROBABLY SEES THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
WIDESPREAD MID-50S IN THE LOWLANDS...BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO
FALL AGAIN...ALTHOUGH LOWLAND TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S UNTIL THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SMR

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE OLYMPICS BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT WHICH COULD CAUSE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE AND FAIRLY MOIST
SO THERE WILL BE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING BUT WITH MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING IT WONT HAVE A CHANCE TO DEVELOP LIKE IT
DID THE OTHER DAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND CIGS
FALL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO WRN WA.
RAIN SHOULD REACH THE COAST MID TO LATE MORNING AND THE INTERIOR OF
WRN WA WILL SEE RAIN DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.

KSEA...CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG SHALLOW THIS MORNING AND NOT
LIKELY TO BE DEEP ENOUGH TO REACH SEA TAC. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE...THEN CIGS WILL LOWER WITH RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LIGHT NNE WIND SHOULD GO BACK TO SLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT OR FRI MORNING AND THEN
ONSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW FRI AFTERNOON OR EVENING INTO SAT MORNING.
A SLOW MOVING FRONT TO THE NW OF THE AREA WILL GIVE STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW TO THE REGION LATE SAT NIGHT OR SUN INTO MON OR TUE.


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...WEST ENTRANCE TO THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KSEW 111101
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A PAIR OF WARM FRONTS WILL BRING
RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS EARLY MORNING...BUT
CURRENT RADAR STARTING TO SHOW THAT COMING TO A CLOSE AS ECHOES
STARTING TO EMERGE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST OF RADAR RANGE...SO SHOULD
START TO SEE PRECIP MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CWA BY MID MORNING.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT REGARDING ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...STARTING WITH A WARM FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA TODAY. AS PRECIP FROM THAT FRONT IS ALREADY VISIBLE ON
RADAR...HAVE TWEAKED POPS UP A BIT FOR THIS MORNING...BUT TIMING
LOOKS GOOD FOR PRECIP TO GENERALLY START LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STILL PROGGED FOR HITTING THE COAST
EARLY FRIDAY AM...IMPACTING MOST OF THE CWA BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS WILL KEEP SHOWERS OVER THE AREA FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THERE MIGHT JUST BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM
RAIN SATURDAY MORNING...BUT ANOTHER APPROACHING SYSTEM LOOKS TO COME
ONSHORE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL
THAT WILL STRETCH INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPS STAYING GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S FOR LOWLAND LOCATIONS IN
THE NEAR TERM...THE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY SHOULD BRING LOWLAND TEMPS DOWN TO RIGHT AROUND
OR JUST SHY OF 50. SIMILARLY...SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH
FOR MUCH OF THE NEAR TERM AS WELL...GENERALLY ABOVE 5000 FT PRE-
FRONT AND STARTING TO REBOUND SUNDAY POST-FRONT. IN THE TIME
BETWEEN...HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 3000-
4000 FT...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN SNOW IN THE PASSES.

NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST THAT HAVE NOT
ALREADY BEEN MENTIONED...ONLY UPDATES TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT LATEST
MODEL RUNS. SMR

.LONG TERM...WHILE GENERAL TREND FOR MONDAY LINES UP WITH BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF...THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE DETAILS. GFS WANTS TO
PUSH PRECIP UP AND OUT OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK RIDGE IN PLACE. EURO
ALSO HAS WEAK RIDGE IN PLACE...BUT KEEPS PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH...IN
THIS INSTANCE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE SOUND TO ALL POINTS
NORTH. PRETTY DECENT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC MAY PUMP UP
MOISTURE INTO SAID WEAK RIDGE...KEEPING THE THREAT OF PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST AT LEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY EVEN
FURTHER.

MONDAY PROBABLY SEES THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
WIDESPREAD MID-50S IN THE LOWLANDS...BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO
FALL AGAIN...ALTHOUGH LOWLAND TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S UNTIL THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SMR

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE OLYMPICS BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT WHICH COULD CAUSE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE AND FAIRLY MOIST
SO THERE WILL BE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING BUT WITH MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING IT WONT HAVE A CHANCE TO DEVELOP LIKE IT
DID THE OTHER DAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND CIGS
FALL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO WRN WA.
RAIN SHOULD REACH THE COAST MID TO LATE MORNING AND THE INTERIOR OF
WRN WA WILL SEE RAIN DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.

KSEA...CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG SHALLOW THIS MORNING AND NOT
LIKELY TO BE DEEP ENOUGH TO REACH SEA TAC. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE...THEN CIGS WILL LOWER WITH RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LIGHT NNE WIND SHOULD GO BACK TO SLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT OR FRI MORNING AND THEN
ONSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW FRI AFTERNOON OR EVENING INTO SAT MORNING.
A SLOW MOVING FRONT TO THE NW OF THE AREA WILL GIVE STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW TO THE REGION LATE SAT NIGHT OR SUN INTO MON OR TUE.


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...WEST ENTRANCE TO THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 111101
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A PAIR OF WARM FRONTS WILL BRING
RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS EARLY MORNING...BUT
CURRENT RADAR STARTING TO SHOW THAT COMING TO A CLOSE AS ECHOES
STARTING TO EMERGE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST OF RADAR RANGE...SO SHOULD
START TO SEE PRECIP MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CWA BY MID MORNING.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT REGARDING ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...STARTING WITH A WARM FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA TODAY. AS PRECIP FROM THAT FRONT IS ALREADY VISIBLE ON
RADAR...HAVE TWEAKED POPS UP A BIT FOR THIS MORNING...BUT TIMING
LOOKS GOOD FOR PRECIP TO GENERALLY START LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STILL PROGGED FOR HITTING THE COAST
EARLY FRIDAY AM...IMPACTING MOST OF THE CWA BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS WILL KEEP SHOWERS OVER THE AREA FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THERE MIGHT JUST BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM
RAIN SATURDAY MORNING...BUT ANOTHER APPROACHING SYSTEM LOOKS TO COME
ONSHORE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL
THAT WILL STRETCH INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPS STAYING GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S FOR LOWLAND LOCATIONS IN
THE NEAR TERM...THE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY SHOULD BRING LOWLAND TEMPS DOWN TO RIGHT AROUND
OR JUST SHY OF 50. SIMILARLY...SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH
FOR MUCH OF THE NEAR TERM AS WELL...GENERALLY ABOVE 5000 FT PRE-
FRONT AND STARTING TO REBOUND SUNDAY POST-FRONT. IN THE TIME
BETWEEN...HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 3000-
4000 FT...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN SNOW IN THE PASSES.

NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST THAT HAVE NOT
ALREADY BEEN MENTIONED...ONLY UPDATES TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT LATEST
MODEL RUNS. SMR

.LONG TERM...WHILE GENERAL TREND FOR MONDAY LINES UP WITH BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF...THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE DETAILS. GFS WANTS TO
PUSH PRECIP UP AND OUT OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK RIDGE IN PLACE. EURO
ALSO HAS WEAK RIDGE IN PLACE...BUT KEEPS PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH...IN
THIS INSTANCE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE SOUND TO ALL POINTS
NORTH. PRETTY DECENT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC MAY PUMP UP
MOISTURE INTO SAID WEAK RIDGE...KEEPING THE THREAT OF PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST AT LEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY EVEN
FURTHER.

MONDAY PROBABLY SEES THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
WIDESPREAD MID-50S IN THE LOWLANDS...BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO
FALL AGAIN...ALTHOUGH LOWLAND TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S UNTIL THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SMR

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE OLYMPICS BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT WHICH COULD CAUSE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE AND FAIRLY MOIST
SO THERE WILL BE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING BUT WITH MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING IT WONT HAVE A CHANCE TO DEVELOP LIKE IT
DID THE OTHER DAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND CIGS
FALL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO WRN WA.
RAIN SHOULD REACH THE COAST MID TO LATE MORNING AND THE INTERIOR OF
WRN WA WILL SEE RAIN DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.

KSEA...CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG SHALLOW THIS MORNING AND NOT
LIKELY TO BE DEEP ENOUGH TO REACH SEA TAC. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE...THEN CIGS WILL LOWER WITH RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LIGHT NNE WIND SHOULD GO BACK TO SLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT OR FRI MORNING AND THEN
ONSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW FRI AFTERNOON OR EVENING INTO SAT MORNING.
A SLOW MOVING FRONT TO THE NW OF THE AREA WILL GIVE STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW TO THE REGION LATE SAT NIGHT OR SUN INTO MON OR TUE.


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...WEST ENTRANCE TO THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KOTX 110526
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
926 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure weakens over the next couple of days, allowing for
increasing precipitation chances. A warm front Thursday, followed
by a cold front passage Friday, will produce light valley rain
and high mountain snow across much of the region. Unsettled
weather will continue through the weekend into early next week
with valley rain, high mountain snow and breezy winds expected.
Temperatures will be quite mild on Monday with many locations
seeing highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update to cool some of the forecast low temperatures for
tonight a few degrees and closer to their current dewpoints.
/Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS: Weak wave exiting the forecast area this evening but a
few lingering spotty showers remain. The ridge still remains in
place with abundant low level moisture and overnight and early
morning temperatures not too far from their dewpints...therfore
another repeat of MVFR/IFR low stratus ceilings and IFR/LIFR fog
remains in store overnight tonight and early Thursday Morning.
Another weak disturbance will bring more light precipitation to
the aviation area tomorrow. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        34  46  38  48  34  45 /  10  20  70  70  70  40
Coeur d`Alene  34  46  38  47  36  44 /  10  20  70  70  80  60
Pullman        37  51  42  52  37  47 /  10  10  20  50  60  40
Lewiston       42  55  44  57  41  53 /   0  10  20  40  50  40
Colville       32  41  35  42  33  42 /  10  20  80  60  70  50
Sandpoint      31  43  36  43  34  41 /  10  20  90  70  90  60
Kellogg        36  43  37  44  35  39 /  20  20  70  60  90  80
Moses Lake     33  46  37  48  34  49 /   0  20  40  50  30  10
Wenatchee      33  40  35  44  32  45 /  10  60  80  40  30  10
Omak           30  37  34  38  30  41 /  10  40  80  40  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 110526
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
926 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure weakens over the next couple of days, allowing for
increasing precipitation chances. A warm front Thursday, followed
by a cold front passage Friday, will produce light valley rain
and high mountain snow across much of the region. Unsettled
weather will continue through the weekend into early next week
with valley rain, high mountain snow and breezy winds expected.
Temperatures will be quite mild on Monday with many locations
seeing highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update to cool some of the forecast low temperatures for
tonight a few degrees and closer to their current dewpoints.
/Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS: Weak wave exiting the forecast area this evening but a
few lingering spotty showers remain. The ridge still remains in
place with abundant low level moisture and overnight and early
morning temperatures not too far from their dewpints...therfore
another repeat of MVFR/IFR low stratus ceilings and IFR/LIFR fog
remains in store overnight tonight and early Thursday Morning.
Another weak disturbance will bring more light precipitation to
the aviation area tomorrow. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        34  46  38  48  34  45 /  10  20  70  70  70  40
Coeur d`Alene  34  46  38  47  36  44 /  10  20  70  70  80  60
Pullman        37  51  42  52  37  47 /  10  10  20  50  60  40
Lewiston       42  55  44  57  41  53 /   0  10  20  40  50  40
Colville       32  41  35  42  33  42 /  10  20  80  60  70  50
Sandpoint      31  43  36  43  34  41 /  10  20  90  70  90  60
Kellogg        36  43  37  44  35  39 /  20  20  70  60  90  80
Moses Lake     33  46  37  48  34  49 /   0  20  40  50  30  10
Wenatchee      33  40  35  44  32  45 /  10  60  80  40  30  10
Omak           30  37  34  38  30  41 /  10  40  80  40  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 110456
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
855 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AIR MASS TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRI.
WEAK FRONTS OFFSHORE WILL BRUSH THE NW TODAY AND THU...WITH VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY INLAND. THAT CHANGES BY FRI...AS FIRST
IN A SERIES OF FRONTS PUSH INTO THE PAC NW. SHOWERY ON SATURDAY...BUT
MORE RAIN ARRIVES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS STRETCHED ACROSS THE NW
PART OF THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINED DEEP
ENOUGH...PRIMARILY ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE...FOR SOME AREAS
OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE
LITTLE TONIGHT...BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT N AGAIN THU AS A WARM
FRONT. RADAR TRENDS IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OF ECHOES ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST...WHICH WAS
LIFTING NE. AN INFLUX OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE LATER TONIGHT WITH
MODEST MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN AROUND THE 300K ISENTROPE WILL
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY TO THE N PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THU MORNING.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS STILL ON TRACK TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG 140W ON
THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE AND
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AT THIS
POINT...THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS WILL PRIMARILY
STAY OFFSHORE...BUT NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
LIFT TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST AND
ACROSS OUR MORE NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS STILL SOME MODEST DISAGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF
WHEN A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND/OR FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE TIMING IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE AREA WILL RECEIVE A SOLID
ROUND OF RAIN AT SOME POINT DURING THIS TIME. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT TO PRODUCE A FEW
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST UNTIL MODELS DISPLAY BETTER
CONSISTENCY.

AS COLDER AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO
LOWER INTO THE 4000-4500 FT RANGE AND PERHAPS ANOTHER 500-1000 FT
LOWER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. QPF SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE CASCADES AND CREATE A PERIOD OF
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...BUT NOT SURE IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A WINTER WX ADVISORY. /NEUMAN

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE
INCREASED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE FASTER TIMING OF THE ECMWF. NOT EXPECTING TO SEE A LOT OF
CASCADE SNOW WITH THIS FRONT AS SNOW LEVELS QUICKLY RISE ABOVE 7000
FT EARLY SUNDAY. WE COULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN MONDAY AS
A TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT
ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY AND SHOULD BRING MORE RAIN AND CASCADE SNOW TO
THE REGION...WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 3500 FT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST...BUT WILL TREND COOLER AFTER MONDAY. /64
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR INLAND THIS EVENING WITH A MIX OF MVFR AND
IFR ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL NOT IMPROVE MUCH ALONG THE
COAST INTO THU MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. THE WARM FRONT
WILL BRING A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. BOWEN/TJ

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR CALM THIS EVENING. HOWEVER A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT WINDS OUT
OF THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SERIES OF LOWS OFFSHORE WILL
RESULT IN CONFUSED SEAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A LONG-
PERIOD SW SWELL AND A SHORTER PERIOD NW SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE
WATERS. THE COMBINED SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 14 FEET.
BOWEN/TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST
     FRIDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD
     OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 4
     AM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST
     FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 AM TO
     9 AM PST THURSDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM TO
     11 PM PST THURSDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 110456
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
855 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AIR MASS TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRI.
WEAK FRONTS OFFSHORE WILL BRUSH THE NW TODAY AND THU...WITH VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY INLAND. THAT CHANGES BY FRI...AS FIRST
IN A SERIES OF FRONTS PUSH INTO THE PAC NW. SHOWERY ON SATURDAY...BUT
MORE RAIN ARRIVES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS STRETCHED ACROSS THE NW
PART OF THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINED DEEP
ENOUGH...PRIMARILY ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE...FOR SOME AREAS
OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE
LITTLE TONIGHT...BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT N AGAIN THU AS A WARM
FRONT. RADAR TRENDS IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OF ECHOES ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST...WHICH WAS
LIFTING NE. AN INFLUX OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE LATER TONIGHT WITH
MODEST MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN AROUND THE 300K ISENTROPE WILL
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY TO THE N PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THU MORNING.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS STILL ON TRACK TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG 140W ON
THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE AND
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AT THIS
POINT...THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS WILL PRIMARILY
STAY OFFSHORE...BUT NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
LIFT TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST AND
ACROSS OUR MORE NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS STILL SOME MODEST DISAGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF
WHEN A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND/OR FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE TIMING IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE AREA WILL RECEIVE A SOLID
ROUND OF RAIN AT SOME POINT DURING THIS TIME. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT TO PRODUCE A FEW
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST UNTIL MODELS DISPLAY BETTER
CONSISTENCY.

AS COLDER AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO
LOWER INTO THE 4000-4500 FT RANGE AND PERHAPS ANOTHER 500-1000 FT
LOWER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. QPF SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE CASCADES AND CREATE A PERIOD OF
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...BUT NOT SURE IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A WINTER WX ADVISORY. /NEUMAN

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE
INCREASED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE FASTER TIMING OF THE ECMWF. NOT EXPECTING TO SEE A LOT OF
CASCADE SNOW WITH THIS FRONT AS SNOW LEVELS QUICKLY RISE ABOVE 7000
FT EARLY SUNDAY. WE COULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN MONDAY AS
A TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT
ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY AND SHOULD BRING MORE RAIN AND CASCADE SNOW TO
THE REGION...WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 3500 FT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST...BUT WILL TREND COOLER AFTER MONDAY. /64
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR INLAND THIS EVENING WITH A MIX OF MVFR AND
IFR ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL NOT IMPROVE MUCH ALONG THE
COAST INTO THU MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. THE WARM FRONT
WILL BRING A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. BOWEN/TJ

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR CALM THIS EVENING. HOWEVER A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT WINDS OUT
OF THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SERIES OF LOWS OFFSHORE WILL
RESULT IN CONFUSED SEAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A LONG-
PERIOD SW SWELL AND A SHORTER PERIOD NW SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE
WATERS. THE COMBINED SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 14 FEET.
BOWEN/TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST
     FRIDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD
     OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 4
     AM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST
     FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 AM TO
     9 AM PST THURSDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM TO
     11 PM PST THURSDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 110456
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
855 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AIR MASS TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRI.
WEAK FRONTS OFFSHORE WILL BRUSH THE NW TODAY AND THU...WITH VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY INLAND. THAT CHANGES BY FRI...AS FIRST
IN A SERIES OF FRONTS PUSH INTO THE PAC NW. SHOWERY ON SATURDAY...BUT
MORE RAIN ARRIVES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS STRETCHED ACROSS THE NW
PART OF THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINED DEEP
ENOUGH...PRIMARILY ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE...FOR SOME AREAS
OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE
LITTLE TONIGHT...BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT N AGAIN THU AS A WARM
FRONT. RADAR TRENDS IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OF ECHOES ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST...WHICH WAS
LIFTING NE. AN INFLUX OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE LATER TONIGHT WITH
MODEST MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN AROUND THE 300K ISENTROPE WILL
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY TO THE N PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THU MORNING.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS STILL ON TRACK TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG 140W ON
THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE AND
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AT THIS
POINT...THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS WILL PRIMARILY
STAY OFFSHORE...BUT NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
LIFT TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST AND
ACROSS OUR MORE NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS STILL SOME MODEST DISAGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF
WHEN A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND/OR FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE TIMING IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE AREA WILL RECEIVE A SOLID
ROUND OF RAIN AT SOME POINT DURING THIS TIME. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT TO PRODUCE A FEW
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST UNTIL MODELS DISPLAY BETTER
CONSISTENCY.

AS COLDER AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO
LOWER INTO THE 4000-4500 FT RANGE AND PERHAPS ANOTHER 500-1000 FT
LOWER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. QPF SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE CASCADES AND CREATE A PERIOD OF
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...BUT NOT SURE IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A WINTER WX ADVISORY. /NEUMAN

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE
INCREASED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE FASTER TIMING OF THE ECMWF. NOT EXPECTING TO SEE A LOT OF
CASCADE SNOW WITH THIS FRONT AS SNOW LEVELS QUICKLY RISE ABOVE 7000
FT EARLY SUNDAY. WE COULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN MONDAY AS
A TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT
ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY AND SHOULD BRING MORE RAIN AND CASCADE SNOW TO
THE REGION...WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 3500 FT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST...BUT WILL TREND COOLER AFTER MONDAY. /64
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR INLAND THIS EVENING WITH A MIX OF MVFR AND
IFR ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL NOT IMPROVE MUCH ALONG THE
COAST INTO THU MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. THE WARM FRONT
WILL BRING A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. BOWEN/TJ

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR CALM THIS EVENING. HOWEVER A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT WINDS OUT
OF THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SERIES OF LOWS OFFSHORE WILL
RESULT IN CONFUSED SEAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A LONG-
PERIOD SW SWELL AND A SHORTER PERIOD NW SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE
WATERS. THE COMBINED SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 14 FEET.
BOWEN/TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST
     FRIDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD
     OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 4
     AM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST
     FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 AM TO
     9 AM PST THURSDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM TO
     11 PM PST THURSDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 110435
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
835 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL KEEP WESTERN
WASHINGTON DRY TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A PAIR OF
WARM FRONTS WILL BRING RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS HAVE PRETTY MUCH ENDED AND SKIES HAVE CLEARED
OUT OVER MUCH OF W WA THIS EVENING...IN-BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOONS WEAK
FRONT AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SW. IR IMAGERY SHOWS
CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT ALREADY MOVING OVER SW WA AT
330Z/730 PM THIS EVENING.

MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT JUST OFFSHORE OVER THE NE PACIFIC WILL SEND THE
WARM FRONT...ABOUT 400 NM W OF THE S OREGON COAST AT 0330Z/730
PM...UP OVER W WA ON THURSDAY. THE NEW 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING RAIN ACROSS THE SW HALF OF W WA BY 18Z/10 AM
THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY COVERING THE N PART OF W WA BY 00Z/4 PM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEW 00Z NAM AND 12Z CANADIAN ARE A LITTLE
SLOWER AT 18Z BUT CATCH UP BY 00Z. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL SHOW THE
STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION HEADING TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND BUT A
FAIRLY GOOD SHOT WILL REACH THE WA COAST AND THE OLYMPICS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS SHOWS WARM ADVECTION AT 925 MB
FINALLY ENDING BETWEEN 03Z-06Z THURSDAY EVENING. BY COMPARISON THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT MOVES SLOWLY E ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING LOOKS PRETTY WEAK. MODEL QPF STILL VARIES QUITE A BIT...BUT
IT LOOKS LIKE THE COAST WILL GET 0.80-1.00 AND THE INTERIOR
SOMEWHERE AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN. THE OLYMPICS COULD GET 1-2
INCHES. WIND SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH ONLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE COAST AND N INTERIOR. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 6000 FEET.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE W WILL BRING SHOWERS
TO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL CROSS THE W COAST AROUND OR BEFORE 12Z/4 AM SATURDAY. THE
COOLER MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE
AREA BUT DOES NOT LOOK QUITE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP DOWN TO BELOW
4000 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT...SO THE PASSES WILL SEE SOME SNOW.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWING RIGHT BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WITH RAIN REACHING THE COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN
SPREADING INLAND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH BOTH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND SATURDAYS WARM FRONT. KAM

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 3 PM AFD...SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE A RAINY PERIOD. ON MONDAY MODELS
SHIFT THE RAIN NORTH TO VARYING DEGREES. MODEL SIMILARITY IS LACKING
AFTER THAT AND HAVE KEPT BROAD BRUSH CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT DOES APPEAR WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...GIVING
TEMPERATURES A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE OLYMPICS BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT WHICH COULD CAUSE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE AND FAIRLY MOIST
SO SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS MAY SET UP OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS INCREASE
THURSDAY AND THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

KSEA...THERE WILL BE A BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...THEN RAIN AND LOWERING CIGS ARE LIKELY LATER THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SLY BREEZE THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OR MAYBE NE FOR AWHILE...THEN GO BACK TO SLY LATER THU.

&&

.MARINE...THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL GIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT THU.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND THU NIGHT OR FRI MORNING AND
THEN ONSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW FRI AFTERNOON OR EVENING INTO SAT
MORNING. A SLOW MOVING FRONT TO THE NW OF THE AREA WILL GIVE STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW TO THE REGION LATE SAT NIGHT OR SUN INTO MON OR TUE.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS...WEST ENTRANCE TO THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND GRAYS HARBOR BAR 3 AM THU TO 9 PM THU.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KOTX 110411
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
811 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure weakens over the next couple of days, allowing for
increasing precipitation chances. A warm front Thursday, followed
by a cold front passage Friday, will produce light valley rain
and high mountain snow across much of the region. Unsettled
weather will continue through the weekend into early next week
with valley rain, high mountain snow and breezy winds expected.
Temperatures will be quite mild on Monday with many locations
seeing highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update to cool some of the forecast low temperatures for
tonight a few degrees and closer to their current dewpoints.
/Pelatti


&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS: A weak wave will cross the Inland NW this evening,
while a more organized warm front lifts into overnight into
Thursday. Mainly middle to high clouds pass early this evening,
with a sprinkle threat near the eastern TAF sites. Any clearing
that may develop, along with a south to southeast flow in the
boundary layer, will bring a threat of MVFR/IFR stratus toward mid
to late evening or overnight. At the same time the middle to high
clouds associated with the warm front will start to invade. If
these are slower thicken there could be some IFR/LIFR fog. However
confidence is low. As the warm front continues to lift in Thursday
morning the threat of -ra/-shra will come in. The chances will
arrive near EAT/MWH first and toward the GEG/SFF toward midday or
early afternoon. However the overall best threat of precipitation
will remain near EAT. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        34  46  38  48  34  45 /  10  20  70  70  70  40
Coeur d`Alene  34  46  38  47  36  44 /  10  20  70  70  80  60
Pullman        37  51  42  52  37  47 /  10  10  20  50  60  40
Lewiston       42  55  44  57  41  53 /   0  10  20  40  50  40
Colville       32  41  35  42  33  42 /  10  20  80  60  70  50
Sandpoint      31  43  36  43  34  41 /  10  20  90  70  90  60
Kellogg        36  43  37  44  35  39 /  20  20  70  60  90  80
Moses Lake     33  46  37  48  34  49 /   0  20  40  50  30  10
Wenatchee      33  40  35  44  32  45 /  10  60  80  40  30  10
Omak           30  37  34  38  30  41 /  10  40  80  40  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 110411
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
811 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure weakens over the next couple of days, allowing for
increasing precipitation chances. A warm front Thursday, followed
by a cold front passage Friday, will produce light valley rain
and high mountain snow across much of the region. Unsettled
weather will continue through the weekend into early next week
with valley rain, high mountain snow and breezy winds expected.
Temperatures will be quite mild on Monday with many locations
seeing highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update to cool some of the forecast low temperatures for
tonight a few degrees and closer to their current dewpoints.
/Pelatti


&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS: A weak wave will cross the Inland NW this evening,
while a more organized warm front lifts into overnight into
Thursday. Mainly middle to high clouds pass early this evening,
with a sprinkle threat near the eastern TAF sites. Any clearing
that may develop, along with a south to southeast flow in the
boundary layer, will bring a threat of MVFR/IFR stratus toward mid
to late evening or overnight. At the same time the middle to high
clouds associated with the warm front will start to invade. If
these are slower thicken there could be some IFR/LIFR fog. However
confidence is low. As the warm front continues to lift in Thursday
morning the threat of -ra/-shra will come in. The chances will
arrive near EAT/MWH first and toward the GEG/SFF toward midday or
early afternoon. However the overall best threat of precipitation
will remain near EAT. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        34  46  38  48  34  45 /  10  20  70  70  70  40
Coeur d`Alene  34  46  38  47  36  44 /  10  20  70  70  80  60
Pullman        37  51  42  52  37  47 /  10  10  20  50  60  40
Lewiston       42  55  44  57  41  53 /   0  10  20  40  50  40
Colville       32  41  35  42  33  42 /  10  20  80  60  70  50
Sandpoint      31  43  36  43  34  41 /  10  20  90  70  90  60
Kellogg        36  43  37  44  35  39 /  20  20  70  60  90  80
Moses Lake     33  46  37  48  34  49 /   0  20  40  50  30  10
Wenatchee      33  40  35  44  32  45 /  10  60  80  40  30  10
Omak           30  37  34  38  30  41 /  10  40  80  40  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 110411
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
811 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure weakens over the next couple of days, allowing for
increasing precipitation chances. A warm front Thursday, followed
by a cold front passage Friday, will produce light valley rain
and high mountain snow across much of the region. Unsettled
weather will continue through the weekend into early next week
with valley rain, high mountain snow and breezy winds expected.
Temperatures will be quite mild on Monday with many locations
seeing highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update to cool some of the forecast low temperatures for
tonight a few degrees and closer to their current dewpoints.
/Pelatti


&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS: A weak wave will cross the Inland NW this evening,
while a more organized warm front lifts into overnight into
Thursday. Mainly middle to high clouds pass early this evening,
with a sprinkle threat near the eastern TAF sites. Any clearing
that may develop, along with a south to southeast flow in the
boundary layer, will bring a threat of MVFR/IFR stratus toward mid
to late evening or overnight. At the same time the middle to high
clouds associated with the warm front will start to invade. If
these are slower thicken there could be some IFR/LIFR fog. However
confidence is low. As the warm front continues to lift in Thursday
morning the threat of -ra/-shra will come in. The chances will
arrive near EAT/MWH first and toward the GEG/SFF toward midday or
early afternoon. However the overall best threat of precipitation
will remain near EAT. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        34  46  38  48  34  45 /  10  20  70  70  70  40
Coeur d`Alene  34  46  38  47  36  44 /  10  20  70  70  80  60
Pullman        37  51  42  52  37  47 /  10  10  20  50  60  40
Lewiston       42  55  44  57  41  53 /   0  10  20  40  50  40
Colville       32  41  35  42  33  42 /  10  20  80  60  70  50
Sandpoint      31  43  36  43  34  41 /  10  20  90  70  90  60
Kellogg        36  43  37  44  35  39 /  20  20  70  60  90  80
Moses Lake     33  46  37  48  34  49 /   0  20  40  50  30  10
Wenatchee      33  40  35  44  32  45 /  10  60  80  40  30  10
Omak           30  37  34  38  30  41 /  10  40  80  40  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 102337
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
337 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure weakens over the next couple of days, allowing for
increasing precipitation chances. A warm front Thursday, followed
by a cold front passage Friday, will produce light valley rain
and high mountain snow across much of the region. Unsettled
weather will continue through the weekend into early next week
with valley rain, high mountain snow and breezy winds expected.
Temperatures will be quite mild on Monday with many locations
seeing highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: A weak cold front will push across the region this
evening and is already beginning to push east of the Cascades this
afternoon. Radar did pick up on some light rain west of the
Cascades earlier in the day. Lower levels are a bit drier on this
side of the Cascades, so I do not expect the same kind of radar
returns as moisture increases. Expect mainly very light precip or
sprinkles/high mountain flurries for the evening. Upslope flow
into the Panhandle will keep a small chance for showers through
the night.

Thursday and Thursday night: A warm front will push in over the
region behind the cold front passage tonight. This front will
result in a resurgence of moisture into the region and will have
access to a better moisture tap. In fact, this higher moisture
content is noticeable on water vapor imagery with better
enhancement out at around 36N and 136W in the eastern Pacific.
Most areas will see light precipitation with the Cascades seeing
the best chances in the afternoon and then shifting over to the
Panhandle overnight. Snow levels will remain relatively high with
mainly valley rain and high mountain snow. The one exception to
this will be possibly up the Methow Valley. The NAM model in
particular shows a nearly isothermal profile right along the 0
degree line from the surface up to around 5,000 ft MSL. Really
tough to say if this will translate as snow or rain for places
like Winthrop and Mazama. It will likely depend on how much these
locations can warm up through the day on Thursday as the steadier
precip likely will not get going until the afternoon hours.

Temperatures will generally remain above normal. Nighttime
temperatures will feel quite mild, especially Thursday night as
warm air advection and cloud cover will yield lows in the mid to
upper 30s for many locations. /SVH

Friday through Wednesday...A wet, but warm pattern will set up
over the region through this portion of the forecast. A cold
front will move through the Inland Northwest Friday afternoon,
resulting in a good chance for showers. Then the flow becomes
westerly through the weekend and into next week with a series of
weak frontal boundaries that will keep conditions unsettled.

Friday and Saturday...Model guidance is pretty similar showing
a cold front moving into the Cascades around late morning, then
moving slowly through the forecast area Friday afternoon/evening
and should be well east of the area by early Saturday morning.
Ahead of the front good isentropic lift and deep Pacific moisture
will result in widespread stratiform precipitation. As the front
moves through the area we expect drying from the west, with
precipitation turning showery near the Cascade crest and for the
Panhandle mountains. Snow levels start out between 5000-7000 feet,
but will drop with the frontal passage down to 3000-4000. This
will mean high mountain snow and low elevation rain. QPF totals
through Saturday afternoon will range from around a tenth to a
quarter of an inch for the lowlands and a quarter to a half inch
for the mountains, and locally a little more. Snow amounts for the
higher elevations look to be 2-5 inches. Winds with and just
behind the cold front Friday night and Saturday will increase out
of the southwest 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph. Temperatures will
be in the upper 30s to upper 40s and on the warm side of normal.

Sunday through Wednesday...The active weather will continue through
the end of the forecast period. Rain and snow will be in the
forecast just about every day. The exception may be Tuesday when
another fast moving ridge moves through the region. But this will
be short lived. After Sunday morning snow levels will remain high
above 5000-5500 feet, so precipitation as low elevation rain and
high mountains snow. Temperatures will climb into the 50s to low
60s Monday and Tuesday, before cooling off on Wednesday.

One thing we will be keeping an eye on will be breezy/gusty winds
on Monday with southwest winds 15-20 mph and gusts 25-30 mph. The
combination of the warm temperatures mentioned above, high dew
points and breezy winds is a great pattern for rapid snow melt,
especially at the lower and mid elevations. Snow melt will likely
result in rises on small rivers and streams. Flooding is not
expected at this time. However, run-off may fill up road side
ditches etc, and result in ponding and the potential for low water
crossing in areas that have substantial low elevation snow. For
example the Waterville Plateau, The Methow valley, and some of the
northern mountain valleys. This will be monitored through the
weekend so stay tuned. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS: A weak wave will cross the Inland NW this evening,
while a more organized warm front lifts into overnight into
Thursday. Mainly middle to high clouds pass early this evening,
with a sprinkle threat near the eastern TAF sites. Any clearing
that may develop, along with a south to southeast flow in the
boundary layer, will bring a threat of MVFR/IFR stratus toward mid
to late evening or overnight. At the same time the middle to high
clouds associated with the warm front will start to invade. If
these are slower thicken there could be some IFR/LIFR fog. However
confidence is low. As the warm front continues to lift in Thursday
morning the threat of -ra/-shra will come in. The chances will
arrive near EAT/MWH first and toward the GEG/SFF toward midday or
early afternoon. However the overall best threat of precipitation
will remain near EAT. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        34  46  38  48  34  45 /  10  20  70  70  70  40
Coeur d`Alene  34  46  38  47  36  44 /  10  20  70  70  80  60
Pullman        40  51  42  52  37  47 /  10  10  20  50  60  40
Lewiston       44  55  44  57  41  53 /   0  10  20  40  50  40
Colville       33  41  35  42  33  42 /  10  20  80  60  70  50
Sandpoint      33  43  36  43  34  41 /  10  20  90  70  90  60
Kellogg        36  43  37  44  35  39 /  20  20  70  60  90  80
Moses Lake     33  46  37  48  34  49 /   0  20  40  50  30  10
Wenatchee      33  40  35  44  32  45 /  10  60  80  40  30  10
Omak           30  37  34  38  30  41 /  10  40  80  40  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 102337
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
337 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure weakens over the next couple of days, allowing for
increasing precipitation chances. A warm front Thursday, followed
by a cold front passage Friday, will produce light valley rain
and high mountain snow across much of the region. Unsettled
weather will continue through the weekend into early next week
with valley rain, high mountain snow and breezy winds expected.
Temperatures will be quite mild on Monday with many locations
seeing highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: A weak cold front will push across the region this
evening and is already beginning to push east of the Cascades this
afternoon. Radar did pick up on some light rain west of the
Cascades earlier in the day. Lower levels are a bit drier on this
side of the Cascades, so I do not expect the same kind of radar
returns as moisture increases. Expect mainly very light precip or
sprinkles/high mountain flurries for the evening. Upslope flow
into the Panhandle will keep a small chance for showers through
the night.

Thursday and Thursday night: A warm front will push in over the
region behind the cold front passage tonight. This front will
result in a resurgence of moisture into the region and will have
access to a better moisture tap. In fact, this higher moisture
content is noticeable on water vapor imagery with better
enhancement out at around 36N and 136W in the eastern Pacific.
Most areas will see light precipitation with the Cascades seeing
the best chances in the afternoon and then shifting over to the
Panhandle overnight. Snow levels will remain relatively high with
mainly valley rain and high mountain snow. The one exception to
this will be possibly up the Methow Valley. The NAM model in
particular shows a nearly isothermal profile right along the 0
degree line from the surface up to around 5,000 ft MSL. Really
tough to say if this will translate as snow or rain for places
like Winthrop and Mazama. It will likely depend on how much these
locations can warm up through the day on Thursday as the steadier
precip likely will not get going until the afternoon hours.

Temperatures will generally remain above normal. Nighttime
temperatures will feel quite mild, especially Thursday night as
warm air advection and cloud cover will yield lows in the mid to
upper 30s for many locations. /SVH

Friday through Wednesday...A wet, but warm pattern will set up
over the region through this portion of the forecast. A cold
front will move through the Inland Northwest Friday afternoon,
resulting in a good chance for showers. Then the flow becomes
westerly through the weekend and into next week with a series of
weak frontal boundaries that will keep conditions unsettled.

Friday and Saturday...Model guidance is pretty similar showing
a cold front moving into the Cascades around late morning, then
moving slowly through the forecast area Friday afternoon/evening
and should be well east of the area by early Saturday morning.
Ahead of the front good isentropic lift and deep Pacific moisture
will result in widespread stratiform precipitation. As the front
moves through the area we expect drying from the west, with
precipitation turning showery near the Cascade crest and for the
Panhandle mountains. Snow levels start out between 5000-7000 feet,
but will drop with the frontal passage down to 3000-4000. This
will mean high mountain snow and low elevation rain. QPF totals
through Saturday afternoon will range from around a tenth to a
quarter of an inch for the lowlands and a quarter to a half inch
for the mountains, and locally a little more. Snow amounts for the
higher elevations look to be 2-5 inches. Winds with and just
behind the cold front Friday night and Saturday will increase out
of the southwest 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph. Temperatures will
be in the upper 30s to upper 40s and on the warm side of normal.

Sunday through Wednesday...The active weather will continue through
the end of the forecast period. Rain and snow will be in the
forecast just about every day. The exception may be Tuesday when
another fast moving ridge moves through the region. But this will
be short lived. After Sunday morning snow levels will remain high
above 5000-5500 feet, so precipitation as low elevation rain and
high mountains snow. Temperatures will climb into the 50s to low
60s Monday and Tuesday, before cooling off on Wednesday.

One thing we will be keeping an eye on will be breezy/gusty winds
on Monday with southwest winds 15-20 mph and gusts 25-30 mph. The
combination of the warm temperatures mentioned above, high dew
points and breezy winds is a great pattern for rapid snow melt,
especially at the lower and mid elevations. Snow melt will likely
result in rises on small rivers and streams. Flooding is not
expected at this time. However, run-off may fill up road side
ditches etc, and result in ponding and the potential for low water
crossing in areas that have substantial low elevation snow. For
example the Waterville Plateau, The Methow valley, and some of the
northern mountain valleys. This will be monitored through the
weekend so stay tuned. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS: A weak wave will cross the Inland NW this evening,
while a more organized warm front lifts into overnight into
Thursday. Mainly middle to high clouds pass early this evening,
with a sprinkle threat near the eastern TAF sites. Any clearing
that may develop, along with a south to southeast flow in the
boundary layer, will bring a threat of MVFR/IFR stratus toward mid
to late evening or overnight. At the same time the middle to high
clouds associated with the warm front will start to invade. If
these are slower thicken there could be some IFR/LIFR fog. However
confidence is low. As the warm front continues to lift in Thursday
morning the threat of -ra/-shra will come in. The chances will
arrive near EAT/MWH first and toward the GEG/SFF toward midday or
early afternoon. However the overall best threat of precipitation
will remain near EAT. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        34  46  38  48  34  45 /  10  20  70  70  70  40
Coeur d`Alene  34  46  38  47  36  44 /  10  20  70  70  80  60
Pullman        40  51  42  52  37  47 /  10  10  20  50  60  40
Lewiston       44  55  44  57  41  53 /   0  10  20  40  50  40
Colville       33  41  35  42  33  42 /  10  20  80  60  70  50
Sandpoint      33  43  36  43  34  41 /  10  20  90  70  90  60
Kellogg        36  43  37  44  35  39 /  20  20  70  60  90  80
Moses Lake     33  46  37  48  34  49 /   0  20  40  50  30  10
Wenatchee      33  40  35  44  32  45 /  10  60  80  40  30  10
Omak           30  37  34  38  30  41 /  10  40  80  40  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 102337
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
337 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure weakens over the next couple of days, allowing for
increasing precipitation chances. A warm front Thursday, followed
by a cold front passage Friday, will produce light valley rain
and high mountain snow across much of the region. Unsettled
weather will continue through the weekend into early next week
with valley rain, high mountain snow and breezy winds expected.
Temperatures will be quite mild on Monday with many locations
seeing highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: A weak cold front will push across the region this
evening and is already beginning to push east of the Cascades this
afternoon. Radar did pick up on some light rain west of the
Cascades earlier in the day. Lower levels are a bit drier on this
side of the Cascades, so I do not expect the same kind of radar
returns as moisture increases. Expect mainly very light precip or
sprinkles/high mountain flurries for the evening. Upslope flow
into the Panhandle will keep a small chance for showers through
the night.

Thursday and Thursday night: A warm front will push in over the
region behind the cold front passage tonight. This front will
result in a resurgence of moisture into the region and will have
access to a better moisture tap. In fact, this higher moisture
content is noticeable on water vapor imagery with better
enhancement out at around 36N and 136W in the eastern Pacific.
Most areas will see light precipitation with the Cascades seeing
the best chances in the afternoon and then shifting over to the
Panhandle overnight. Snow levels will remain relatively high with
mainly valley rain and high mountain snow. The one exception to
this will be possibly up the Methow Valley. The NAM model in
particular shows a nearly isothermal profile right along the 0
degree line from the surface up to around 5,000 ft MSL. Really
tough to say if this will translate as snow or rain for places
like Winthrop and Mazama. It will likely depend on how much these
locations can warm up through the day on Thursday as the steadier
precip likely will not get going until the afternoon hours.

Temperatures will generally remain above normal. Nighttime
temperatures will feel quite mild, especially Thursday night as
warm air advection and cloud cover will yield lows in the mid to
upper 30s for many locations. /SVH

Friday through Wednesday...A wet, but warm pattern will set up
over the region through this portion of the forecast. A cold
front will move through the Inland Northwest Friday afternoon,
resulting in a good chance for showers. Then the flow becomes
westerly through the weekend and into next week with a series of
weak frontal boundaries that will keep conditions unsettled.

Friday and Saturday...Model guidance is pretty similar showing
a cold front moving into the Cascades around late morning, then
moving slowly through the forecast area Friday afternoon/evening
and should be well east of the area by early Saturday morning.
Ahead of the front good isentropic lift and deep Pacific moisture
will result in widespread stratiform precipitation. As the front
moves through the area we expect drying from the west, with
precipitation turning showery near the Cascade crest and for the
Panhandle mountains. Snow levels start out between 5000-7000 feet,
but will drop with the frontal passage down to 3000-4000. This
will mean high mountain snow and low elevation rain. QPF totals
through Saturday afternoon will range from around a tenth to a
quarter of an inch for the lowlands and a quarter to a half inch
for the mountains, and locally a little more. Snow amounts for the
higher elevations look to be 2-5 inches. Winds with and just
behind the cold front Friday night and Saturday will increase out
of the southwest 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph. Temperatures will
be in the upper 30s to upper 40s and on the warm side of normal.

Sunday through Wednesday...The active weather will continue through
the end of the forecast period. Rain and snow will be in the
forecast just about every day. The exception may be Tuesday when
another fast moving ridge moves through the region. But this will
be short lived. After Sunday morning snow levels will remain high
above 5000-5500 feet, so precipitation as low elevation rain and
high mountains snow. Temperatures will climb into the 50s to low
60s Monday and Tuesday, before cooling off on Wednesday.

One thing we will be keeping an eye on will be breezy/gusty winds
on Monday with southwest winds 15-20 mph and gusts 25-30 mph. The
combination of the warm temperatures mentioned above, high dew
points and breezy winds is a great pattern for rapid snow melt,
especially at the lower and mid elevations. Snow melt will likely
result in rises on small rivers and streams. Flooding is not
expected at this time. However, run-off may fill up road side
ditches etc, and result in ponding and the potential for low water
crossing in areas that have substantial low elevation snow. For
example the Waterville Plateau, The Methow valley, and some of the
northern mountain valleys. This will be monitored through the
weekend so stay tuned. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS: A weak wave will cross the Inland NW this evening,
while a more organized warm front lifts into overnight into
Thursday. Mainly middle to high clouds pass early this evening,
with a sprinkle threat near the eastern TAF sites. Any clearing
that may develop, along with a south to southeast flow in the
boundary layer, will bring a threat of MVFR/IFR stratus toward mid
to late evening or overnight. At the same time the middle to high
clouds associated with the warm front will start to invade. If
these are slower thicken there could be some IFR/LIFR fog. However
confidence is low. As the warm front continues to lift in Thursday
morning the threat of -ra/-shra will come in. The chances will
arrive near EAT/MWH first and toward the GEG/SFF toward midday or
early afternoon. However the overall best threat of precipitation
will remain near EAT. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        34  46  38  48  34  45 /  10  20  70  70  70  40
Coeur d`Alene  34  46  38  47  36  44 /  10  20  70  70  80  60
Pullman        40  51  42  52  37  47 /  10  10  20  50  60  40
Lewiston       44  55  44  57  41  53 /   0  10  20  40  50  40
Colville       33  41  35  42  33  42 /  10  20  80  60  70  50
Sandpoint      33  43  36  43  34  41 /  10  20  90  70  90  60
Kellogg        36  43  37  44  35  39 /  20  20  70  60  90  80
Moses Lake     33  46  37  48  34  49 /   0  20  40  50  30  10
Wenatchee      33  40  35  44  32  45 /  10  60  80  40  30  10
Omak           30  37  34  38  30  41 /  10  40  80  40  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 102301
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
300 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AIR MASS TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRI.
WEAK FRONTS OFFSHORE WILL BRUSH THE NW TODAY AND THU...WITH VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY INLAND. THAT CHANGES BY FRI...AS FIRST
IN A SERIES OF FRONTS PUSH INTO THE PAC NW. SHOWERY ON SATURDAY...BUT
MORE RAIN ARRIVES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF A MID LEVEL FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD
INTO THE CASCADES AFTER BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES TO PARTS OF THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY EARLIER TODAY. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN HAVE PUSHED INTO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS AREA OF WET WEATHER SHOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME PUSHING INLAND
OVERNIGHT BEFORE IT FALLS APART. WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TO ACCOUNT FOR
UNCERTAINTY...BUT AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS ANY WET WEATHER WILL
PRIMARILY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. THE AREA
ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER BETWEEN PORTLAND AND KELSO/LONGVIEW
BEING THE MOST LIKELY AREA IN THE INTERIOR TO EXPERIENCE SOME WET
WEATHER TONIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD ALONG 140W ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AT
THIS POINT...THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS WILL PRIMARILY
STAY OFFSHORE...BUT NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
LIFT TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST AND
ACROSS OUR MORE NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS STILL SOME MODEST DISAGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF
WHEN A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND/OR FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE TIMING IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE AREA WILL RECEIVE A SOLID
ROUND OF RAIN AT SOME POINT DURING THIS TIME. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT TO PRODUCE A FEW
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST UNTIL MODELS DISPLAY BETTER
CONSISTENCY.

AS COLDER AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO
LOWER INTO THE 4000-4500 FT RANGE AND PERHAPS ANOTHER 500-1000 FT
LOWER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. QPF SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE CASCADES AND CREATE A PERIOD OF
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...BUT NOT SURE IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A WINTER WX ADVISORY. /NEUMAN



.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE
INCREASED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE FASTER TIMING OF THE ECMWF. NOT EXPECTING TO SEE A LOT OF
CASCADE SNOW WITH THIS FRONT AS SNOW LEVELS QUICKLY RISE ABOVE 7000
FT EARLY SUNDAY. WE COULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN MONDAY AS
A TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT
ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY AND SHOULD BRING MORE RAIN AND CASCADE SNOW TO
THE REGION...WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 3500 FT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST...BUT WILL TREND COOLER AFTER MONDAY. /64
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR INLAND THIS EVENING WITH A MIX OF MVFR AND
IFR ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE ALONG THE COAST
BRIEFLY LATER THIS EVENING THEN DETERIORATE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
INTO THU MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. THE WARM FRONT WILL
BRING A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. TJ

&&

.MARINE...BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SOUTH WINDS ARE GUSTING TO
25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS SHOULD EASE
EARLY THIS EVENING THEN BACK TO THE SE TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT WINDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A SERIES OF LOWS OFFSHORE WILL RESULT IN CONFUSED SEAS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL AND A
SHORTER PERIOD NW SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS. THE COMBINED
SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 14 FEET. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST
     FRIDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
    TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST
     FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 PM
    PST THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 AM TO
    9 AM PST THURSDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 102301
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
300 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AIR MASS TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRI.
WEAK FRONTS OFFSHORE WILL BRUSH THE NW TODAY AND THU...WITH VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY INLAND. THAT CHANGES BY FRI...AS FIRST
IN A SERIES OF FRONTS PUSH INTO THE PAC NW. SHOWERY ON SATURDAY...BUT
MORE RAIN ARRIVES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF A MID LEVEL FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD
INTO THE CASCADES AFTER BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES TO PARTS OF THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY EARLIER TODAY. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN HAVE PUSHED INTO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS AREA OF WET WEATHER SHOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME PUSHING INLAND
OVERNIGHT BEFORE IT FALLS APART. WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TO ACCOUNT FOR
UNCERTAINTY...BUT AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS ANY WET WEATHER WILL
PRIMARILY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. THE AREA
ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER BETWEEN PORTLAND AND KELSO/LONGVIEW
BEING THE MOST LIKELY AREA IN THE INTERIOR TO EXPERIENCE SOME WET
WEATHER TONIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD ALONG 140W ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AT
THIS POINT...THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS WILL PRIMARILY
STAY OFFSHORE...BUT NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
LIFT TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST AND
ACROSS OUR MORE NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS STILL SOME MODEST DISAGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF
WHEN A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND/OR FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE TIMING IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE AREA WILL RECEIVE A SOLID
ROUND OF RAIN AT SOME POINT DURING THIS TIME. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT TO PRODUCE A FEW
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST UNTIL MODELS DISPLAY BETTER
CONSISTENCY.

AS COLDER AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO
LOWER INTO THE 4000-4500 FT RANGE AND PERHAPS ANOTHER 500-1000 FT
LOWER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. QPF SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE CASCADES AND CREATE A PERIOD OF
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...BUT NOT SURE IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A WINTER WX ADVISORY. /NEUMAN



.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE
INCREASED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE FASTER TIMING OF THE ECMWF. NOT EXPECTING TO SEE A LOT OF
CASCADE SNOW WITH THIS FRONT AS SNOW LEVELS QUICKLY RISE ABOVE 7000
FT EARLY SUNDAY. WE COULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN MONDAY AS
A TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT
ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY AND SHOULD BRING MORE RAIN AND CASCADE SNOW TO
THE REGION...WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 3500 FT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST...BUT WILL TREND COOLER AFTER MONDAY. /64
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR INLAND THIS EVENING WITH A MIX OF MVFR AND
IFR ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE ALONG THE COAST
BRIEFLY LATER THIS EVENING THEN DETERIORATE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
INTO THU MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. THE WARM FRONT WILL
BRING A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. TJ

&&

.MARINE...BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SOUTH WINDS ARE GUSTING TO
25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS SHOULD EASE
EARLY THIS EVENING THEN BACK TO THE SE TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT WINDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A SERIES OF LOWS OFFSHORE WILL RESULT IN CONFUSED SEAS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL AND A
SHORTER PERIOD NW SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS. THE COMBINED
SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 14 FEET. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST
     FRIDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
    TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST
     FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 PM
    PST THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 AM TO
    9 AM PST THURSDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 102301
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
300 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AIR MASS TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRI.
WEAK FRONTS OFFSHORE WILL BRUSH THE NW TODAY AND THU...WITH VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY INLAND. THAT CHANGES BY FRI...AS FIRST
IN A SERIES OF FRONTS PUSH INTO THE PAC NW. SHOWERY ON SATURDAY...BUT
MORE RAIN ARRIVES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF A MID LEVEL FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD
INTO THE CASCADES AFTER BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES TO PARTS OF THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY EARLIER TODAY. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN HAVE PUSHED INTO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS AREA OF WET WEATHER SHOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME PUSHING INLAND
OVERNIGHT BEFORE IT FALLS APART. WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TO ACCOUNT FOR
UNCERTAINTY...BUT AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS ANY WET WEATHER WILL
PRIMARILY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. THE AREA
ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER BETWEEN PORTLAND AND KELSO/LONGVIEW
BEING THE MOST LIKELY AREA IN THE INTERIOR TO EXPERIENCE SOME WET
WEATHER TONIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD ALONG 140W ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AT
THIS POINT...THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS WILL PRIMARILY
STAY OFFSHORE...BUT NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
LIFT TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST AND
ACROSS OUR MORE NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS STILL SOME MODEST DISAGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF
WHEN A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND/OR FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE TIMING IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE AREA WILL RECEIVE A SOLID
ROUND OF RAIN AT SOME POINT DURING THIS TIME. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT TO PRODUCE A FEW
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST UNTIL MODELS DISPLAY BETTER
CONSISTENCY.

AS COLDER AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO
LOWER INTO THE 4000-4500 FT RANGE AND PERHAPS ANOTHER 500-1000 FT
LOWER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. QPF SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE CASCADES AND CREATE A PERIOD OF
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...BUT NOT SURE IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A WINTER WX ADVISORY. /NEUMAN



.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE
INCREASED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE FASTER TIMING OF THE ECMWF. NOT EXPECTING TO SEE A LOT OF
CASCADE SNOW WITH THIS FRONT AS SNOW LEVELS QUICKLY RISE ABOVE 7000
FT EARLY SUNDAY. WE COULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN MONDAY AS
A TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT
ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY AND SHOULD BRING MORE RAIN AND CASCADE SNOW TO
THE REGION...WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 3500 FT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST...BUT WILL TREND COOLER AFTER MONDAY. /64
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR INLAND THIS EVENING WITH A MIX OF MVFR AND
IFR ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE ALONG THE COAST
BRIEFLY LATER THIS EVENING THEN DETERIORATE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
INTO THU MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. THE WARM FRONT WILL
BRING A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. TJ

&&

.MARINE...BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SOUTH WINDS ARE GUSTING TO
25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS SHOULD EASE
EARLY THIS EVENING THEN BACK TO THE SE TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT WINDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A SERIES OF LOWS OFFSHORE WILL RESULT IN CONFUSED SEAS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL AND A
SHORTER PERIOD NW SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS. THE COMBINED
SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 14 FEET. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST
     FRIDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
    TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST
     FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 PM
    PST THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 AM TO
    9 AM PST THURSDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 102255
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK FRONT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
RAIN THIS EVENING BUT ALSO PARTIAL CLEARING. RAIN WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WARM FRONT REACHES THE AREA. A
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL BRING RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. IT
DID HAVE ENOUGH PUNCH TO BRING A LITTLE RAIN TO MOST AREAS. ANOTHER
IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST AND IT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
RAIN GOING TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING BEHIND THIS IMPULSE
AS IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RECENT MODEL RUNS
HAVE SLOWED THIS SYSTEM A BIT...NOW IT APPEARS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL
REACH THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. IT WILL
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...GIVING SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID 50S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD. THE SNOW LEVEL...
WHICH WILL HAVE BEEN AT 6000 FEET OR HIGHER UNTIL NOW...WILL FALL TO
3000-4000 FEET. ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST...WITH RAIN DEVELOPING ON THE COAST. SATURDAY HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOW 50S. BURKE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE A RAINY
PERIOD. ON MONDAY MODELS SHIFT THE RAIN NORTH TO VARYING DEGREES.
MODEL SIMILARITY IS LACKING AFTER THAT AND HAVE KEPT BROAD BRUSH
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT DOES
APPEAR WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...GIVING TEMPERATURES A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE OLYMPICS BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT WHICH COULD CAUSE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE AND SOMEWHAT
MOIST. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CASCADES
THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND
MOVE NE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE THU AFTERNOON.

THE INCOMING FRONT SHEARED APART TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL BOUNDARY
PORTIONS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER TODAY AND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY MOVING ONSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE INTERIOR
EARLY THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR
WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS. A FEW SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FLOW ALOFT
INTERACTING WITH THE COASTAL TERRAIN IS PROVIDING SOME OCCASIONAL
CLEARING IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND CONFIDENCE IN THE CEILING
FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM IS LOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR
WITH CIGS RISING TO ABOUT 060 AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO MORE
EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.

CIGS WILL LOWER TO AROUND OVC030 LATE THU AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM FRONT INCREASES. ALBRECHT

KSEA...THE DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. WINDS 13005-08KT WILL BACK TO
AROUND 09005KT ABOUT 06Z TONIGHT THEN BECOME 02005-07KT ABOUT 12Z AS
THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INLAND
WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND S TO SE WINDS OVER ADMIRALTY INLET AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF PUGET SOUND AHEAD OF AND WITH THIS FRONT WILL DIMINISH
AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE WATERS AND DISSIPATES.

A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE SW ON THU.
EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND AT THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT THU
MORNING THE SPREADING INTO THE EAST ENTRANCE LATE THU AFTERNOON AND
THU NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE THU NIGHT
AND FRI MORNING.

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW FRI AFTERNOON OR EVENING INTO SAT
MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL AREA WHILE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WESTERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA FRI AFTERNOON.

A SLOW MOVING FRONT TO THE NW OF THE AREA WILL GIVE STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW TO THE REGION LATE SAT NIGHT OR SUN INTO MON OR TUE. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO
     60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
     SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
     TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ADMIRALTY
     INLET-PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KSEW 102255
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK FRONT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
RAIN THIS EVENING BUT ALSO PARTIAL CLEARING. RAIN WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WARM FRONT REACHES THE AREA. A
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL BRING RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. IT
DID HAVE ENOUGH PUNCH TO BRING A LITTLE RAIN TO MOST AREAS. ANOTHER
IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST AND IT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
RAIN GOING TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING BEHIND THIS IMPULSE
AS IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RECENT MODEL RUNS
HAVE SLOWED THIS SYSTEM A BIT...NOW IT APPEARS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL
REACH THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. IT WILL
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...GIVING SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID 50S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD. THE SNOW LEVEL...
WHICH WILL HAVE BEEN AT 6000 FEET OR HIGHER UNTIL NOW...WILL FALL TO
3000-4000 FEET. ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST...WITH RAIN DEVELOPING ON THE COAST. SATURDAY HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOW 50S. BURKE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE A RAINY
PERIOD. ON MONDAY MODELS SHIFT THE RAIN NORTH TO VARYING DEGREES.
MODEL SIMILARITY IS LACKING AFTER THAT AND HAVE KEPT BROAD BRUSH
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT DOES
APPEAR WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...GIVING TEMPERATURES A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE OLYMPICS BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT WHICH COULD CAUSE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE AND SOMEWHAT
MOIST. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CASCADES
THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND
MOVE NE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE THU AFTERNOON.

THE INCOMING FRONT SHEARED APART TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL BOUNDARY
PORTIONS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER TODAY AND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY MOVING ONSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE INTERIOR
EARLY THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR
WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS. A FEW SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FLOW ALOFT
INTERACTING WITH THE COASTAL TERRAIN IS PROVIDING SOME OCCASIONAL
CLEARING IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND CONFIDENCE IN THE CEILING
FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM IS LOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR
WITH CIGS RISING TO ABOUT 060 AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO MORE
EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.

CIGS WILL LOWER TO AROUND OVC030 LATE THU AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM FRONT INCREASES. ALBRECHT

KSEA...THE DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. WINDS 13005-08KT WILL BACK TO
AROUND 09005KT ABOUT 06Z TONIGHT THEN BECOME 02005-07KT ABOUT 12Z AS
THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INLAND
WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND S TO SE WINDS OVER ADMIRALTY INLET AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF PUGET SOUND AHEAD OF AND WITH THIS FRONT WILL DIMINISH
AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE WATERS AND DISSIPATES.

A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE SW ON THU.
EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND AT THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT THU
MORNING THE SPREADING INTO THE EAST ENTRANCE LATE THU AFTERNOON AND
THU NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE THU NIGHT
AND FRI MORNING.

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW FRI AFTERNOON OR EVENING INTO SAT
MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL AREA WHILE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WESTERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA FRI AFTERNOON.

A SLOW MOVING FRONT TO THE NW OF THE AREA WILL GIVE STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW TO THE REGION LATE SAT NIGHT OR SUN INTO MON OR TUE. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO
     60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
     SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
     TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ADMIRALTY
     INLET-PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 102255
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK FRONT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
RAIN THIS EVENING BUT ALSO PARTIAL CLEARING. RAIN WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WARM FRONT REACHES THE AREA. A
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL BRING RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. IT
DID HAVE ENOUGH PUNCH TO BRING A LITTLE RAIN TO MOST AREAS. ANOTHER
IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST AND IT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
RAIN GOING TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING BEHIND THIS IMPULSE
AS IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RECENT MODEL RUNS
HAVE SLOWED THIS SYSTEM A BIT...NOW IT APPEARS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL
REACH THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. IT WILL
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...GIVING SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID 50S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD. THE SNOW LEVEL...
WHICH WILL HAVE BEEN AT 6000 FEET OR HIGHER UNTIL NOW...WILL FALL TO
3000-4000 FEET. ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST...WITH RAIN DEVELOPING ON THE COAST. SATURDAY HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOW 50S. BURKE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE A RAINY
PERIOD. ON MONDAY MODELS SHIFT THE RAIN NORTH TO VARYING DEGREES.
MODEL SIMILARITY IS LACKING AFTER THAT AND HAVE KEPT BROAD BRUSH
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT DOES
APPEAR WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...GIVING TEMPERATURES A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE OLYMPICS BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT WHICH COULD CAUSE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE AND SOMEWHAT
MOIST. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CASCADES
THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND
MOVE NE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE THU AFTERNOON.

THE INCOMING FRONT SHEARED APART TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL BOUNDARY
PORTIONS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER TODAY AND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY MOVING ONSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE INTERIOR
EARLY THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR
WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS. A FEW SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FLOW ALOFT
INTERACTING WITH THE COASTAL TERRAIN IS PROVIDING SOME OCCASIONAL
CLEARING IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND CONFIDENCE IN THE CEILING
FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM IS LOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR
WITH CIGS RISING TO ABOUT 060 AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO MORE
EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.

CIGS WILL LOWER TO AROUND OVC030 LATE THU AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM FRONT INCREASES. ALBRECHT

KSEA...THE DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. WINDS 13005-08KT WILL BACK TO
AROUND 09005KT ABOUT 06Z TONIGHT THEN BECOME 02005-07KT ABOUT 12Z AS
THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INLAND
WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND S TO SE WINDS OVER ADMIRALTY INLET AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF PUGET SOUND AHEAD OF AND WITH THIS FRONT WILL DIMINISH
AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE WATERS AND DISSIPATES.

A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE SW ON THU.
EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND AT THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT THU
MORNING THE SPREADING INTO THE EAST ENTRANCE LATE THU AFTERNOON AND
THU NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE THU NIGHT
AND FRI MORNING.

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW FRI AFTERNOON OR EVENING INTO SAT
MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL AREA WHILE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WESTERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA FRI AFTERNOON.

A SLOW MOVING FRONT TO THE NW OF THE AREA WILL GIVE STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW TO THE REGION LATE SAT NIGHT OR SUN INTO MON OR TUE. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO
     60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
     SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
     TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ADMIRALTY
     INLET-PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KOTX 102223
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
223 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will weaken over the next couple of days, which
will allow for an increasing chance of precipitation. A warm front
on Thursday followed by a cold front passage on Friday will
produce light valley rain and high mountain snow across much of
the region. Unsettled weather will continue through the weekend
into early next week with valley rain, high mountain snow and
breezy winds expected. Temperatures will be quite mild on Monday
with many locations seeing highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: A weak cold front will push across the region this
evening and is already beginning to push east of the Cascades this
afternoon. Radar did pick up on some light rain west of the
Cascades earlier in the day. Lower levels are a bit drier on this
side of the Cascades, so I do not expect the same kind of radar
returns as moisture increases. Expect mainly very light precip or
sprinkles/high mountain flurries for the evening. Upslope flow
into the Panhandle will keep a small chance for showers through
the night.

Thursday and Thursday night: A warm front will push in over the
region behind the cold front passage tonight. This front will
result in a resurgence of moisture into the region and will have
access to a better moisture tap. In fact, this higher moisture
content is noticeable on water vapor imagery with better
enhancement out at around 36N and 136W in the eastern Pacific.
Most areas will see light precipitation with the Cascades seeing
the best chances in the afternoon and then shifting over to the
Panhandle overnight. Snow levels will remain relatively high with
mainly valley rain and high mountain snow. The one exception to
this will be possibly up the Methow Valley. The NAM model in
particular shows a nearly isothermal profile right along the 0
degree line from the surface up to around 5,000 ft MSL. Really
tough to say if this will translate as snow or rain for places
like Winthrop and Mazama. It will likely depend on how much these
locations can warm up through the day on Thursday as the steadier
precip likely will not get going until the afternoon hours.

Temperatures will generally remain above normal. Nighttime
temperatures will feel quite mild, especially Thursday night as
warm air advection and cloud cover will yield lows in the mid to
upper 30s for many locations. /SVH

Friday through Wednesday...A wet, but warm pattern will set up
over the region through this portion of the forecast. A cold
front will move through the Inland Northwest Friday afternoon,
resulting in a good chance for showers. Then the flow becomes
westerly through the weekend and into next week with a series of
weak frontal boundaries that will keep conditions unsettled.

Friday and Saturday...Model guidance is pretty similar showing
a cold front moving into the Cascades around late morning, then
moving slowly through the forecast area Friday afternoon/evening
and should be well east of the area by early Saturday morning.
Ahead of the front good isentropic lift and deep Pacific moisture
will result in widespread stratiform precipitation. As the front
moves through the area we expect drying from the west, with
precipitation turning showery near the Cascade crest and for the
Panhandle mountains. Snow levels start out between 5000-7000 feet,
but will drop with the frontal passage down to 3000-4000. This
will mean high mountain snow and low elevation rain. QPF totals
through Saturday afternoon will range from around a tenth to a
quarter of an inch for the lowlands and a quarter to a half inch
for the mountains, and locally a little more. Snow amounts for the
higher elevations look to be 2-5 inches. Winds with and just
behind the cold front Friday night and Saturday will increase out
of the southwest 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph. Temperatures will
be in the upper 30s to upper 40s and on the warm side of normal.

Sunday through Wednesday...The active weather will continue through
the end of the forecast period. Rain and snow will be in the
forecast just about every day. The exception may be Tuesday when
another fast moving ridge moves through the region. But this will
be short lived. After Sunday morning snow levels will remain high
above 5000-5500 feet, so precipitation as low elevation rain and
high mountains snow. Temperatures will climb into the 50s to low
60s Monday and Tuesday, before cooling off on Wednesday.

One thing we will be keeping an eye on will be breezy/gusty winds
on Monday with southwest winds 15-20 mph and gusts 25-30 mph. The
combination of the warm temperatures mentioned above, high dew
points and breezy winds is a great pattern for rapid snow melt,
especially at the lower and mid elevations. Snow melt will likely
result in rises on small rivers and streams. Flooding is not
expected at this time. However, run-off may fill up road side
ditches etc, and result in ponding and the potential for low water
crossing in areas that have substantial low elevation snow. For
example the Waterville Plateau, The Methow valley, and some of the
northern mountain valleys. This will be monitored through the
weekend so stay tuned. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS: A couple waves will cross the Inland NW today, while a
more organized warm front begins to lift into tomorrow. Stratus
and fog will continue to impact portions of eastern WA/north ID
before 20-21Z. At the same time middle to high clouds will
thicken. There could be some sprinkles overnight/early Thursday
with the clouds. However aside from EAT which will have a VCSH
threat Thursday morning, most locations will see dry weather. So
look for improving cigs/vis this afternoon, then some decrease in
cigs/vis again tonight/early Thursday. However the influx of
middle to high clouds is expected to limit the extent and coverage
of fog for Thursday morning. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        34  46  38  48  34  45 /  10  20  70  70  70  40
Coeur d`Alene  34  46  38  47  36  44 /  10  20  70  70  80  60
Pullman        40  51  42  52  37  47 /  10  10  20  50  60  40
Lewiston       44  55  44  57  41  53 /   0  10  20  40  50  40
Colville       33  41  35  42  33  42 /  10  20  80  60  70  50
Sandpoint      33  43  36  43  34  41 /  10  20  90  70  90  60
Kellogg        36  43  37  44  35  39 /  20  20  70  60  90  80
Moses Lake     33  46  37  48  34  49 /   0  20  40  50  30  10
Wenatchee      33  40  35  44  32  45 /  10  60  80  40  30  10
Omak           30  37  34  38  30  41 /  10  40  80  40  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 102223
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
223 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will weaken over the next couple of days, which
will allow for an increasing chance of precipitation. A warm front
on Thursday followed by a cold front passage on Friday will
produce light valley rain and high mountain snow across much of
the region. Unsettled weather will continue through the weekend
into early next week with valley rain, high mountain snow and
breezy winds expected. Temperatures will be quite mild on Monday
with many locations seeing highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: A weak cold front will push across the region this
evening and is already beginning to push east of the Cascades this
afternoon. Radar did pick up on some light rain west of the
Cascades earlier in the day. Lower levels are a bit drier on this
side of the Cascades, so I do not expect the same kind of radar
returns as moisture increases. Expect mainly very light precip or
sprinkles/high mountain flurries for the evening. Upslope flow
into the Panhandle will keep a small chance for showers through
the night.

Thursday and Thursday night: A warm front will push in over the
region behind the cold front passage tonight. This front will
result in a resurgence of moisture into the region and will have
access to a better moisture tap. In fact, this higher moisture
content is noticeable on water vapor imagery with better
enhancement out at around 36N and 136W in the eastern Pacific.
Most areas will see light precipitation with the Cascades seeing
the best chances in the afternoon and then shifting over to the
Panhandle overnight. Snow levels will remain relatively high with
mainly valley rain and high mountain snow. The one exception to
this will be possibly up the Methow Valley. The NAM model in
particular shows a nearly isothermal profile right along the 0
degree line from the surface up to around 5,000 ft MSL. Really
tough to say if this will translate as snow or rain for places
like Winthrop and Mazama. It will likely depend on how much these
locations can warm up through the day on Thursday as the steadier
precip likely will not get going until the afternoon hours.

Temperatures will generally remain above normal. Nighttime
temperatures will feel quite mild, especially Thursday night as
warm air advection and cloud cover will yield lows in the mid to
upper 30s for many locations. /SVH

Friday through Wednesday...A wet, but warm pattern will set up
over the region through this portion of the forecast. A cold
front will move through the Inland Northwest Friday afternoon,
resulting in a good chance for showers. Then the flow becomes
westerly through the weekend and into next week with a series of
weak frontal boundaries that will keep conditions unsettled.

Friday and Saturday...Model guidance is pretty similar showing
a cold front moving into the Cascades around late morning, then
moving slowly through the forecast area Friday afternoon/evening
and should be well east of the area by early Saturday morning.
Ahead of the front good isentropic lift and deep Pacific moisture
will result in widespread stratiform precipitation. As the front
moves through the area we expect drying from the west, with
precipitation turning showery near the Cascade crest and for the
Panhandle mountains. Snow levels start out between 5000-7000 feet,
but will drop with the frontal passage down to 3000-4000. This
will mean high mountain snow and low elevation rain. QPF totals
through Saturday afternoon will range from around a tenth to a
quarter of an inch for the lowlands and a quarter to a half inch
for the mountains, and locally a little more. Snow amounts for the
higher elevations look to be 2-5 inches. Winds with and just
behind the cold front Friday night and Saturday will increase out
of the southwest 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph. Temperatures will
be in the upper 30s to upper 40s and on the warm side of normal.

Sunday through Wednesday...The active weather will continue through
the end of the forecast period. Rain and snow will be in the
forecast just about every day. The exception may be Tuesday when
another fast moving ridge moves through the region. But this will
be short lived. After Sunday morning snow levels will remain high
above 5000-5500 feet, so precipitation as low elevation rain and
high mountains snow. Temperatures will climb into the 50s to low
60s Monday and Tuesday, before cooling off on Wednesday.

One thing we will be keeping an eye on will be breezy/gusty winds
on Monday with southwest winds 15-20 mph and gusts 25-30 mph. The
combination of the warm temperatures mentioned above, high dew
points and breezy winds is a great pattern for rapid snow melt,
especially at the lower and mid elevations. Snow melt will likely
result in rises on small rivers and streams. Flooding is not
expected at this time. However, run-off may fill up road side
ditches etc, and result in ponding and the potential for low water
crossing in areas that have substantial low elevation snow. For
example the Waterville Plateau, The Methow valley, and some of the
northern mountain valleys. This will be monitored through the
weekend so stay tuned. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS: A couple waves will cross the Inland NW today, while a
more organized warm front begins to lift into tomorrow. Stratus
and fog will continue to impact portions of eastern WA/north ID
before 20-21Z. At the same time middle to high clouds will
thicken. There could be some sprinkles overnight/early Thursday
with the clouds. However aside from EAT which will have a VCSH
threat Thursday morning, most locations will see dry weather. So
look for improving cigs/vis this afternoon, then some decrease in
cigs/vis again tonight/early Thursday. However the influx of
middle to high clouds is expected to limit the extent and coverage
of fog for Thursday morning. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        34  46  38  48  34  45 /  10  20  70  70  70  40
Coeur d`Alene  34  46  38  47  36  44 /  10  20  70  70  80  60
Pullman        40  51  42  52  37  47 /  10  10  20  50  60  40
Lewiston       44  55  44  57  41  53 /   0  10  20  40  50  40
Colville       33  41  35  42  33  42 /  10  20  80  60  70  50
Sandpoint      33  43  36  43  34  41 /  10  20  90  70  90  60
Kellogg        36  43  37  44  35  39 /  20  20  70  60  90  80
Moses Lake     33  46  37  48  34  49 /   0  20  40  50  30  10
Wenatchee      33  40  35  44  32  45 /  10  60  80  40  30  10
Omak           30  37  34  38  30  41 /  10  40  80  40  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 101836
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1036 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will persist today, with dry and mild
conditions. However there will be increased cloud cover compared
to the last couple days. A more progressive and unsettled pattern
will return later this week, bringing a chance of light rain
Thursday in the Cascades, then throughout the region Friday into
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A weak disturbance is crossing western WA this morning. This will
have some impact over our area as it pushes east of the Cascades.
Mainly this will be as some thickening mid level cloud cover;
however, models do suggest a small possibility for measurable
precip across the northern mountains this afternoon and into the
Panhandle tonight. Precip chances were increased a bit to reflect
this idea. Higher elevations will see the best chances for
measurable precip, whereas the valleys will more likely only see
some occasional sprinkles. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS: A couple waves will cross the Inland NW today, while a
more organized warm front begins to lift into tomorrow. Stratus
and fog will continue to impact portions of eastern WA/north ID
before 20-21Z. At the same time middle to high clouds will
thicken. There could be some sprinkles overnight/early Thursday
with the clouds. However aside from EAT which will have a VCSH
threat Thursday morning, most locations will see dry weather. So
look for improving cigs/vis this afternoon, then some decrease in
cigs/vis again tonight/early Thursday. However the influx of
middle to high clouds is expected to limit the extent and coverage
of fog for Thursday morning. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        46  34  46  38  48  36 /   0  10  30  40  70  70
Coeur d`Alene  46  34  46  37  47  37 /   0  10  20  50  70  80
Pullman        51  39  51  40  52  38 /   0  10  10  20  50  60
Lewiston       55  40  56  42  57  42 /   0   0   0  10  40  50
Colville       42  32  41  35  42  36 /  10  10  50  70  60  70
Sandpoint      42  33  43  35  44  34 /  10  10  30  70  70  90
Kellogg        43  35  44  38  44  36 /   0  20  20  50  60  90
Moses Lake     47  34  47  38  48  37 /   0   0  30  30  50  30
Wenatchee      42  33  40  35  45  35 /  10  10  50  70  40  30
Omak           36  31  37  34  38  34 /  10  10  50  70  40  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 101836
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1036 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will persist today, with dry and mild
conditions. However there will be increased cloud cover compared
to the last couple days. A more progressive and unsettled pattern
will return later this week, bringing a chance of light rain
Thursday in the Cascades, then throughout the region Friday into
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A weak disturbance is crossing western WA this morning. This will
have some impact over our area as it pushes east of the Cascades.
Mainly this will be as some thickening mid level cloud cover;
however, models do suggest a small possibility for measurable
precip across the northern mountains this afternoon and into the
Panhandle tonight. Precip chances were increased a bit to reflect
this idea. Higher elevations will see the best chances for
measurable precip, whereas the valleys will more likely only see
some occasional sprinkles. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS: A couple waves will cross the Inland NW today, while a
more organized warm front begins to lift into tomorrow. Stratus
and fog will continue to impact portions of eastern WA/north ID
before 20-21Z. At the same time middle to high clouds will
thicken. There could be some sprinkles overnight/early Thursday
with the clouds. However aside from EAT which will have a VCSH
threat Thursday morning, most locations will see dry weather. So
look for improving cigs/vis this afternoon, then some decrease in
cigs/vis again tonight/early Thursday. However the influx of
middle to high clouds is expected to limit the extent and coverage
of fog for Thursday morning. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        46  34  46  38  48  36 /   0  10  30  40  70  70
Coeur d`Alene  46  34  46  37  47  37 /   0  10  20  50  70  80
Pullman        51  39  51  40  52  38 /   0  10  10  20  50  60
Lewiston       55  40  56  42  57  42 /   0   0   0  10  40  50
Colville       42  32  41  35  42  36 /  10  10  50  70  60  70
Sandpoint      42  33  43  35  44  34 /  10  10  30  70  70  90
Kellogg        43  35  44  38  44  36 /   0  20  20  50  60  90
Moses Lake     47  34  47  38  48  37 /   0   0  30  30  50  30
Wenatchee      42  33  40  35  45  35 /  10  10  50  70  40  30
Omak           36  31  37  34  38  34 /  10  10  50  70  40  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 101836
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1036 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will persist today, with dry and mild
conditions. However there will be increased cloud cover compared
to the last couple days. A more progressive and unsettled pattern
will return later this week, bringing a chance of light rain
Thursday in the Cascades, then throughout the region Friday into
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A weak disturbance is crossing western WA this morning. This will
have some impact over our area as it pushes east of the Cascades.
Mainly this will be as some thickening mid level cloud cover;
however, models do suggest a small possibility for measurable
precip across the northern mountains this afternoon and into the
Panhandle tonight. Precip chances were increased a bit to reflect
this idea. Higher elevations will see the best chances for
measurable precip, whereas the valleys will more likely only see
some occasional sprinkles. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS: A couple waves will cross the Inland NW today, while a
more organized warm front begins to lift into tomorrow. Stratus
and fog will continue to impact portions of eastern WA/north ID
before 20-21Z. At the same time middle to high clouds will
thicken. There could be some sprinkles overnight/early Thursday
with the clouds. However aside from EAT which will have a VCSH
threat Thursday morning, most locations will see dry weather. So
look for improving cigs/vis this afternoon, then some decrease in
cigs/vis again tonight/early Thursday. However the influx of
middle to high clouds is expected to limit the extent and coverage
of fog for Thursday morning. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        46  34  46  38  48  36 /   0  10  30  40  70  70
Coeur d`Alene  46  34  46  37  47  37 /   0  10  20  50  70  80
Pullman        51  39  51  40  52  38 /   0  10  10  20  50  60
Lewiston       55  40  56  42  57  42 /   0   0   0  10  40  50
Colville       42  32  41  35  42  36 /  10  10  50  70  60  70
Sandpoint      42  33  43  35  44  34 /  10  10  30  70  70  90
Kellogg        43  35  44  38  44  36 /   0  20  20  50  60  90
Moses Lake     47  34  47  38  48  37 /   0   0  30  30  50  30
Wenatchee      42  33  40  35  45  35 /  10  10  50  70  40  30
Omak           36  31  37  34  38  34 /  10  10  50  70  40  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 101751
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
951 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will persist today, with dry and mild
conditions. However there will be increased cloud cover compared
to the last couple days. A more progressive and unsettled pattern
will return later this week, bringing a chance of light rain
Thursday in the Cascades, then throughout the region Friday into
early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...The unusually strong ridge which has
blanketed the Inland Northwest for the past several days will
finally begin to weaken as minor upper level disturbances track
through the region. Looking at the latest satellite loops, the
first disturbance is currently tracking through the eastern third
of Washington right now, with another one moving into western
Washington. Based on GOES BUFR sounding and radar data, both are
rather minor features. The easternmost feature only contains high
clouds, while the western one is producing a few sprinkles near
the coast. This second feature is expected to move into the
Cascades later today and could produce some very light
precipitation mainly near the crest. Otherwise the main impact of
these systems will be an increased cloud trend compared to the
last couple days as well as slightly cooler temperatures.
Nonetheless, readings will still remain warmer than normal for
this time of year with highs generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s
for most valley locations. The exception once again will occur
over the far NW part of the forecast area, namely the Methow
Valley and Okanogan Valley and Highlands due to a very stubborn
cold pool near the ground. Looks like this could stick around
until we get a more robust front through the area, which won`t
likely be today. The other problem for today will be the potential
for fog. We suspect the coverage should be greater than we have
seen for the past couple days as the wind fields are generally
lighter with higher humidity levels. Hard to tell where most of it
will form, however the HRRR suggests most of it will occur over
the western Columbia Basin. This is not supported at this time by
the fog product but will bear watching. Meanwhile for the first
time this week, visibility restrictions were developing over parts
of the Spokane/CdA area and suspect the trend will be for
increasing fog. For tonight, the second front will receive a
little boost in strength as a shortwave trough currently around
127w moves inland. We don`t think this will produce much weather
other than a chance of light precipitation again near the
Cascades. The increased cloud cover should minimize the fog
potential overnight.

For Thursday and Thursday night...the ridge looks like it could
rebound again as pressure falls develop around 140w. The
interesting thing from this development is it takes the residual
moisture from tonight`s front and pivots it from a north-south
orientation to more of an east-west orientation as a warm front
pushes northward. The isentropic ascent from this front begins to
steepen and precipitation chances will increase steadily from
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Light to moderate
precipitation is expected to develop with a few locations near the
Cascades nearing up to half an inch. The remainder of the area
will see amounts generally ranging from .10-.25 inches. While most
of this will fall as rain with snow rising to 5500 feet near the
Canadian Border and to 7000 feet or higher south of I-90, there
is the possibility of a messy mix across the upper Methow Valley.
Model BUFR soundings are showing a temperature right around
freezing near the ground and extending up to nearly 5000 feet
through much of the event. Strangely the NAM BUFR is showing an
initial precip type of rain by midday Thursday followed by snow.
Given the warm air advection associated with the warm front and
little potential for wet bulb cooling, this seems unlikely.
However this will need to be watched especially if the
precipitation begins earlier and falls into an initially cooler
air mass. fx

Friday through Tuesday...An active weather pattern is expected
during the extended period. A cold front will track across the
Inland NW Friday into Friday night followed by cool and showery
weather on Saturday as the upper trough axis swings through. Snow
levels early on Friday start off at 6000-7000 feet before lowering
to 3000-4000 feet Saturday morning behind the cold front. Behind
the cold front mid level westerly flow will favor showers most
prevalent near the Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle with snow
showers expected over the passes. Given the time of year (mid-
February) and its associated higher sun angle compared to late
December road temperatures may be too warm for significant travel
impacts over the passes but this will continue to be monitored.
Another warm front will pass through Sunday into Monday bringing
another round of precipitation with rising snow levels. Monday
has the potential to be very mild with the Inland NW in the warm
sector with breezy south- southwest winds as pressure gradients
tighten. The details differ after Monday with the timing of a cold
front with the ECMWF showing Monday night and GFS Tuesday night.
Given these uncertainties no changes were made to the Tuesday
forecast which favors the slower solution. This front may bring
in breezy to windy conditions once it passes. JW

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS: A couple waves will cross the Inland NW today, while a
more organized warm front begins to lift into tomorrow. Stratus
and fog will continue to impact portions of eastern WA/north ID
before 20-21Z. At the same time middle to high clouds will
thicken. There could be some sprinkles overnight/early Thursday
with the clouds. However aside from EAT which will have a VCSH
threat Thursday morning, most locations will see dry weather. So
look for improving cigs/vis this afternoon, then some decrease in
cigs/vis again tonight/early Thursday. However the influx of
middle to high clouds is expected to limit the extent and coverage
of fog for Thursday morning. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        46  34  46  38  48  36 /   0   0  30  40  70  70
Coeur d`Alene  46  34  46  37  47  37 /   0   0  20  50  70  80
Pullman        51  39  51  40  52  38 /   0   0  10  20  50  60
Lewiston       55  40  56  42  57  42 /   0   0   0  10  40  50
Colville       42  32  41  35  42  36 /  10  10  50  70  60  70
Sandpoint      42  33  43  35  44  34 /  10  10  30  70  70  90
Kellogg        43  35  44  38  44  36 /   0   0  20  50  60  90
Moses Lake     47  34  47  38  48  37 /   0   0  30  30  50  30
Wenatchee      42  33  40  35  45  35 /  10   0  50  70  40  30
Omak           36  31  37  34  38  34 /  10   0  50  70  40  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 101751
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
951 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will persist today, with dry and mild
conditions. However there will be increased cloud cover compared
to the last couple days. A more progressive and unsettled pattern
will return later this week, bringing a chance of light rain
Thursday in the Cascades, then throughout the region Friday into
early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...The unusually strong ridge which has
blanketed the Inland Northwest for the past several days will
finally begin to weaken as minor upper level disturbances track
through the region. Looking at the latest satellite loops, the
first disturbance is currently tracking through the eastern third
of Washington right now, with another one moving into western
Washington. Based on GOES BUFR sounding and radar data, both are
rather minor features. The easternmost feature only contains high
clouds, while the western one is producing a few sprinkles near
the coast. This second feature is expected to move into the
Cascades later today and could produce some very light
precipitation mainly near the crest. Otherwise the main impact of
these systems will be an increased cloud trend compared to the
last couple days as well as slightly cooler temperatures.
Nonetheless, readings will still remain warmer than normal for
this time of year with highs generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s
for most valley locations. The exception once again will occur
over the far NW part of the forecast area, namely the Methow
Valley and Okanogan Valley and Highlands due to a very stubborn
cold pool near the ground. Looks like this could stick around
until we get a more robust front through the area, which won`t
likely be today. The other problem for today will be the potential
for fog. We suspect the coverage should be greater than we have
seen for the past couple days as the wind fields are generally
lighter with higher humidity levels. Hard to tell where most of it
will form, however the HRRR suggests most of it will occur over
the western Columbia Basin. This is not supported at this time by
the fog product but will bear watching. Meanwhile for the first
time this week, visibility restrictions were developing over parts
of the Spokane/CdA area and suspect the trend will be for
increasing fog. For tonight, the second front will receive a
little boost in strength as a shortwave trough currently around
127w moves inland. We don`t think this will produce much weather
other than a chance of light precipitation again near the
Cascades. The increased cloud cover should minimize the fog
potential overnight.

For Thursday and Thursday night...the ridge looks like it could
rebound again as pressure falls develop around 140w. The
interesting thing from this development is it takes the residual
moisture from tonight`s front and pivots it from a north-south
orientation to more of an east-west orientation as a warm front
pushes northward. The isentropic ascent from this front begins to
steepen and precipitation chances will increase steadily from
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Light to moderate
precipitation is expected to develop with a few locations near the
Cascades nearing up to half an inch. The remainder of the area
will see amounts generally ranging from .10-.25 inches. While most
of this will fall as rain with snow rising to 5500 feet near the
Canadian Border and to 7000 feet or higher south of I-90, there
is the possibility of a messy mix across the upper Methow Valley.
Model BUFR soundings are showing a temperature right around
freezing near the ground and extending up to nearly 5000 feet
through much of the event. Strangely the NAM BUFR is showing an
initial precip type of rain by midday Thursday followed by snow.
Given the warm air advection associated with the warm front and
little potential for wet bulb cooling, this seems unlikely.
However this will need to be watched especially if the
precipitation begins earlier and falls into an initially cooler
air mass. fx

Friday through Tuesday...An active weather pattern is expected
during the extended period. A cold front will track across the
Inland NW Friday into Friday night followed by cool and showery
weather on Saturday as the upper trough axis swings through. Snow
levels early on Friday start off at 6000-7000 feet before lowering
to 3000-4000 feet Saturday morning behind the cold front. Behind
the cold front mid level westerly flow will favor showers most
prevalent near the Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle with snow
showers expected over the passes. Given the time of year (mid-
February) and its associated higher sun angle compared to late
December road temperatures may be too warm for significant travel
impacts over the passes but this will continue to be monitored.
Another warm front will pass through Sunday into Monday bringing
another round of precipitation with rising snow levels. Monday
has the potential to be very mild with the Inland NW in the warm
sector with breezy south- southwest winds as pressure gradients
tighten. The details differ after Monday with the timing of a cold
front with the ECMWF showing Monday night and GFS Tuesday night.
Given these uncertainties no changes were made to the Tuesday
forecast which favors the slower solution. This front may bring
in breezy to windy conditions once it passes. JW

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS: A couple waves will cross the Inland NW today, while a
more organized warm front begins to lift into tomorrow. Stratus
and fog will continue to impact portions of eastern WA/north ID
before 20-21Z. At the same time middle to high clouds will
thicken. There could be some sprinkles overnight/early Thursday
with the clouds. However aside from EAT which will have a VCSH
threat Thursday morning, most locations will see dry weather. So
look for improving cigs/vis this afternoon, then some decrease in
cigs/vis again tonight/early Thursday. However the influx of
middle to high clouds is expected to limit the extent and coverage
of fog for Thursday morning. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        46  34  46  38  48  36 /   0   0  30  40  70  70
Coeur d`Alene  46  34  46  37  47  37 /   0   0  20  50  70  80
Pullman        51  39  51  40  52  38 /   0   0  10  20  50  60
Lewiston       55  40  56  42  57  42 /   0   0   0  10  40  50
Colville       42  32  41  35  42  36 /  10  10  50  70  60  70
Sandpoint      42  33  43  35  44  34 /  10  10  30  70  70  90
Kellogg        43  35  44  38  44  36 /   0   0  20  50  60  90
Moses Lake     47  34  47  38  48  37 /   0   0  30  30  50  30
Wenatchee      42  33  40  35  45  35 /  10   0  50  70  40  30
Omak           36  31  37  34  38  34 /  10   0  50  70  40  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 101751
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
951 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will persist today, with dry and mild
conditions. However there will be increased cloud cover compared
to the last couple days. A more progressive and unsettled pattern
will return later this week, bringing a chance of light rain
Thursday in the Cascades, then throughout the region Friday into
early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...The unusually strong ridge which has
blanketed the Inland Northwest for the past several days will
finally begin to weaken as minor upper level disturbances track
through the region. Looking at the latest satellite loops, the
first disturbance is currently tracking through the eastern third
of Washington right now, with another one moving into western
Washington. Based on GOES BUFR sounding and radar data, both are
rather minor features. The easternmost feature only contains high
clouds, while the western one is producing a few sprinkles near
the coast. This second feature is expected to move into the
Cascades later today and could produce some very light
precipitation mainly near the crest. Otherwise the main impact of
these systems will be an increased cloud trend compared to the
last couple days as well as slightly cooler temperatures.
Nonetheless, readings will still remain warmer than normal for
this time of year with highs generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s
for most valley locations. The exception once again will occur
over the far NW part of the forecast area, namely the Methow
Valley and Okanogan Valley and Highlands due to a very stubborn
cold pool near the ground. Looks like this could stick around
until we get a more robust front through the area, which won`t
likely be today. The other problem for today will be the potential
for fog. We suspect the coverage should be greater than we have
seen for the past couple days as the wind fields are generally
lighter with higher humidity levels. Hard to tell where most of it
will form, however the HRRR suggests most of it will occur over
the western Columbia Basin. This is not supported at this time by
the fog product but will bear watching. Meanwhile for the first
time this week, visibility restrictions were developing over parts
of the Spokane/CdA area and suspect the trend will be for
increasing fog. For tonight, the second front will receive a
little boost in strength as a shortwave trough currently around
127w moves inland. We don`t think this will produce much weather
other than a chance of light precipitation again near the
Cascades. The increased cloud cover should minimize the fog
potential overnight.

For Thursday and Thursday night...the ridge looks like it could
rebound again as pressure falls develop around 140w. The
interesting thing from this development is it takes the residual
moisture from tonight`s front and pivots it from a north-south
orientation to more of an east-west orientation as a warm front
pushes northward. The isentropic ascent from this front begins to
steepen and precipitation chances will increase steadily from
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Light to moderate
precipitation is expected to develop with a few locations near the
Cascades nearing up to half an inch. The remainder of the area
will see amounts generally ranging from .10-.25 inches. While most
of this will fall as rain with snow rising to 5500 feet near the
Canadian Border and to 7000 feet or higher south of I-90, there
is the possibility of a messy mix across the upper Methow Valley.
Model BUFR soundings are showing a temperature right around
freezing near the ground and extending up to nearly 5000 feet
through much of the event. Strangely the NAM BUFR is showing an
initial precip type of rain by midday Thursday followed by snow.
Given the warm air advection associated with the warm front and
little potential for wet bulb cooling, this seems unlikely.
However this will need to be watched especially if the
precipitation begins earlier and falls into an initially cooler
air mass. fx

Friday through Tuesday...An active weather pattern is expected
during the extended period. A cold front will track across the
Inland NW Friday into Friday night followed by cool and showery
weather on Saturday as the upper trough axis swings through. Snow
levels early on Friday start off at 6000-7000 feet before lowering
to 3000-4000 feet Saturday morning behind the cold front. Behind
the cold front mid level westerly flow will favor showers most
prevalent near the Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle with snow
showers expected over the passes. Given the time of year (mid-
February) and its associated higher sun angle compared to late
December road temperatures may be too warm for significant travel
impacts over the passes but this will continue to be monitored.
Another warm front will pass through Sunday into Monday bringing
another round of precipitation with rising snow levels. Monday
has the potential to be very mild with the Inland NW in the warm
sector with breezy south- southwest winds as pressure gradients
tighten. The details differ after Monday with the timing of a cold
front with the ECMWF showing Monday night and GFS Tuesday night.
Given these uncertainties no changes were made to the Tuesday
forecast which favors the slower solution. This front may bring
in breezy to windy conditions once it passes. JW

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS: A couple waves will cross the Inland NW today, while a
more organized warm front begins to lift into tomorrow. Stratus
and fog will continue to impact portions of eastern WA/north ID
before 20-21Z. At the same time middle to high clouds will
thicken. There could be some sprinkles overnight/early Thursday
with the clouds. However aside from EAT which will have a VCSH
threat Thursday morning, most locations will see dry weather. So
look for improving cigs/vis this afternoon, then some decrease in
cigs/vis again tonight/early Thursday. However the influx of
middle to high clouds is expected to limit the extent and coverage
of fog for Thursday morning. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        46  34  46  38  48  36 /   0   0  30  40  70  70
Coeur d`Alene  46  34  46  37  47  37 /   0   0  20  50  70  80
Pullman        51  39  51  40  52  38 /   0   0  10  20  50  60
Lewiston       55  40  56  42  57  42 /   0   0   0  10  40  50
Colville       42  32  41  35  42  36 /  10  10  50  70  60  70
Sandpoint      42  33  43  35  44  34 /  10  10  30  70  70  90
Kellogg        43  35  44  38  44  36 /   0   0  20  50  60  90
Moses Lake     47  34  47  38  48  37 /   0   0  30  30  50  30
Wenatchee      42  33  40  35  45  35 /  10   0  50  70  40  30
Omak           36  31  37  34  38  34 /  10   0  50  70  40  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 101751
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
951 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will persist today, with dry and mild
conditions. However there will be increased cloud cover compared
to the last couple days. A more progressive and unsettled pattern
will return later this week, bringing a chance of light rain
Thursday in the Cascades, then throughout the region Friday into
early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...The unusually strong ridge which has
blanketed the Inland Northwest for the past several days will
finally begin to weaken as minor upper level disturbances track
through the region. Looking at the latest satellite loops, the
first disturbance is currently tracking through the eastern third
of Washington right now, with another one moving into western
Washington. Based on GOES BUFR sounding and radar data, both are
rather minor features. The easternmost feature only contains high
clouds, while the western one is producing a few sprinkles near
the coast. This second feature is expected to move into the
Cascades later today and could produce some very light
precipitation mainly near the crest. Otherwise the main impact of
these systems will be an increased cloud trend compared to the
last couple days as well as slightly cooler temperatures.
Nonetheless, readings will still remain warmer than normal for
this time of year with highs generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s
for most valley locations. The exception once again will occur
over the far NW part of the forecast area, namely the Methow
Valley and Okanogan Valley and Highlands due to a very stubborn
cold pool near the ground. Looks like this could stick around
until we get a more robust front through the area, which won`t
likely be today. The other problem for today will be the potential
for fog. We suspect the coverage should be greater than we have
seen for the past couple days as the wind fields are generally
lighter with higher humidity levels. Hard to tell where most of it
will form, however the HRRR suggests most of it will occur over
the western Columbia Basin. This is not supported at this time by
the fog product but will bear watching. Meanwhile for the first
time this week, visibility restrictions were developing over parts
of the Spokane/CdA area and suspect the trend will be for
increasing fog. For tonight, the second front will receive a
little boost in strength as a shortwave trough currently around
127w moves inland. We don`t think this will produce much weather
other than a chance of light precipitation again near the
Cascades. The increased cloud cover should minimize the fog
potential overnight.

For Thursday and Thursday night...the ridge looks like it could
rebound again as pressure falls develop around 140w. The
interesting thing from this development is it takes the residual
moisture from tonight`s front and pivots it from a north-south
orientation to more of an east-west orientation as a warm front
pushes northward. The isentropic ascent from this front begins to
steepen and precipitation chances will increase steadily from
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Light to moderate
precipitation is expected to develop with a few locations near the
Cascades nearing up to half an inch. The remainder of the area
will see amounts generally ranging from .10-.25 inches. While most
of this will fall as rain with snow rising to 5500 feet near the
Canadian Border and to 7000 feet or higher south of I-90, there
is the possibility of a messy mix across the upper Methow Valley.
Model BUFR soundings are showing a temperature right around
freezing near the ground and extending up to nearly 5000 feet
through much of the event. Strangely the NAM BUFR is showing an
initial precip type of rain by midday Thursday followed by snow.
Given the warm air advection associated with the warm front and
little potential for wet bulb cooling, this seems unlikely.
However this will need to be watched especially if the
precipitation begins earlier and falls into an initially cooler
air mass. fx

Friday through Tuesday...An active weather pattern is expected
during the extended period. A cold front will track across the
Inland NW Friday into Friday night followed by cool and showery
weather on Saturday as the upper trough axis swings through. Snow
levels early on Friday start off at 6000-7000 feet before lowering
to 3000-4000 feet Saturday morning behind the cold front. Behind
the cold front mid level westerly flow will favor showers most
prevalent near the Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle with snow
showers expected over the passes. Given the time of year (mid-
February) and its associated higher sun angle compared to late
December road temperatures may be too warm for significant travel
impacts over the passes but this will continue to be monitored.
Another warm front will pass through Sunday into Monday bringing
another round of precipitation with rising snow levels. Monday
has the potential to be very mild with the Inland NW in the warm
sector with breezy south- southwest winds as pressure gradients
tighten. The details differ after Monday with the timing of a cold
front with the ECMWF showing Monday night and GFS Tuesday night.
Given these uncertainties no changes were made to the Tuesday
forecast which favors the slower solution. This front may bring
in breezy to windy conditions once it passes. JW

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS: A couple waves will cross the Inland NW today, while a
more organized warm front begins to lift into tomorrow. Stratus
and fog will continue to impact portions of eastern WA/north ID
before 20-21Z. At the same time middle to high clouds will
thicken. There could be some sprinkles overnight/early Thursday
with the clouds. However aside from EAT which will have a VCSH
threat Thursday morning, most locations will see dry weather. So
look for improving cigs/vis this afternoon, then some decrease in
cigs/vis again tonight/early Thursday. However the influx of
middle to high clouds is expected to limit the extent and coverage
of fog for Thursday morning. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        46  34  46  38  48  36 /   0   0  30  40  70  70
Coeur d`Alene  46  34  46  37  47  37 /   0   0  20  50  70  80
Pullman        51  39  51  40  52  38 /   0   0  10  20  50  60
Lewiston       55  40  56  42  57  42 /   0   0   0  10  40  50
Colville       42  32  41  35  42  36 /  10  10  50  70  60  70
Sandpoint      42  33  43  35  44  34 /  10  10  30  70  70  90
Kellogg        43  35  44  38  44  36 /   0   0  20  50  60  90
Moses Lake     47  34  47  38  48  37 /   0   0  30  30  50  30
Wenatchee      42  33  40  35  45  35 /  10   0  50  70  40  30
Omak           36  31  37  34  38  34 /  10   0  50  70  40  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KOTX 101751
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
951 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will persist today, with dry and mild
conditions. However there will be increased cloud cover compared
to the last couple days. A more progressive and unsettled pattern
will return later this week, bringing a chance of light rain
Thursday in the Cascades, then throughout the region Friday into
early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...The unusually strong ridge which has
blanketed the Inland Northwest for the past several days will
finally begin to weaken as minor upper level disturbances track
through the region. Looking at the latest satellite loops, the
first disturbance is currently tracking through the eastern third
of Washington right now, with another one moving into western
Washington. Based on GOES BUFR sounding and radar data, both are
rather minor features. The easternmost feature only contains high
clouds, while the western one is producing a few sprinkles near
the coast. This second feature is expected to move into the
Cascades later today and could produce some very light
precipitation mainly near the crest. Otherwise the main impact of
these systems will be an increased cloud trend compared to the
last couple days as well as slightly cooler temperatures.
Nonetheless, readings will still remain warmer than normal for
this time of year with highs generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s
for most valley locations. The exception once again will occur
over the far NW part of the forecast area, namely the Methow
Valley and Okanogan Valley and Highlands due to a very stubborn
cold pool near the ground. Looks like this could stick around
until we get a more robust front through the area, which won`t
likely be today. The other problem for today will be the potential
for fog. We suspect the coverage should be greater than we have
seen for the past couple days as the wind fields are generally
lighter with higher humidity levels. Hard to tell where most of it
will form, however the HRRR suggests most of it will occur over
the western Columbia Basin. This is not supported at this time by
the fog product but will bear watching. Meanwhile for the first
time this week, visibility restrictions were developing over parts
of the Spokane/CdA area and suspect the trend will be for
increasing fog. For tonight, the second front will receive a
little boost in strength as a shortwave trough currently around
127w moves inland. We don`t think this will produce much weather
other than a chance of light precipitation again near the
Cascades. The increased cloud cover should minimize the fog
potential overnight.

For Thursday and Thursday night...the ridge looks like it could
rebound again as pressure falls develop around 140w. The
interesting thing from this development is it takes the residual
moisture from tonight`s front and pivots it from a north-south
orientation to more of an east-west orientation as a warm front
pushes northward. The isentropic ascent from this front begins to
steepen and precipitation chances will increase steadily from
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Light to moderate
precipitation is expected to develop with a few locations near the
Cascades nearing up to half an inch. The remainder of the area
will see amounts generally ranging from .10-.25 inches. While most
of this will fall as rain with snow rising to 5500 feet near the
Canadian Border and to 7000 feet or higher south of I-90, there
is the possibility of a messy mix across the upper Methow Valley.
Model BUFR soundings are showing a temperature right around
freezing near the ground and extending up to nearly 5000 feet
through much of the event. Strangely the NAM BUFR is showing an
initial precip type of rain by midday Thursday followed by snow.
Given the warm air advection associated with the warm front and
little potential for wet bulb cooling, this seems unlikely.
However this will need to be watched especially if the
precipitation begins earlier and falls into an initially cooler
air mass. fx

Friday through Tuesday...An active weather pattern is expected
during the extended period. A cold front will track across the
Inland NW Friday into Friday night followed by cool and showery
weather on Saturday as the upper trough axis swings through. Snow
levels early on Friday start off at 6000-7000 feet before lowering
to 3000-4000 feet Saturday morning behind the cold front. Behind
the cold front mid level westerly flow will favor showers most
prevalent near the Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle with snow
showers expected over the passes. Given the time of year (mid-
February) and its associated higher sun angle compared to late
December road temperatures may be too warm for significant travel
impacts over the passes but this will continue to be monitored.
Another warm front will pass through Sunday into Monday bringing
another round of precipitation with rising snow levels. Monday
has the potential to be very mild with the Inland NW in the warm
sector with breezy south- southwest winds as pressure gradients
tighten. The details differ after Monday with the timing of a cold
front with the ECMWF showing Monday night and GFS Tuesday night.
Given these uncertainties no changes were made to the Tuesday
forecast which favors the slower solution. This front may bring
in breezy to windy conditions once it passes. JW

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS: A couple waves will cross the Inland NW today, while a
more organized warm front begins to lift into tomorrow. Stratus
and fog will continue to impact portions of eastern WA/north ID
before 20-21Z. At the same time middle to high clouds will
thicken. There could be some sprinkles overnight/early Thursday
with the clouds. However aside from EAT which will have a VCSH
threat Thursday morning, most locations will see dry weather. So
look for improving cigs/vis this afternoon, then some decrease in
cigs/vis again tonight/early Thursday. However the influx of
middle to high clouds is expected to limit the extent and coverage
of fog for Thursday morning. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        46  34  46  38  48  36 /   0   0  30  40  70  70
Coeur d`Alene  46  34  46  37  47  37 /   0   0  20  50  70  80
Pullman        51  39  51  40  52  38 /   0   0  10  20  50  60
Lewiston       55  40  56  42  57  42 /   0   0   0  10  40  50
Colville       42  32  41  35  42  36 /  10  10  50  70  60  70
Sandpoint      42  33  43  35  44  34 /  10  10  30  70  70  90
Kellogg        43  35  44  38  44  36 /   0   0  20  50  60  90
Moses Lake     47  34  47  38  48  37 /   0   0  30  30  50  30
Wenatchee      42  33  40  35  45  35 /  10   0  50  70  40  30
Omak           36  31  37  34  38  34 /  10   0  50  70  40  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 101649
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WET WEATHER TO THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT REACHES THE
AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN ECHOES OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. NUMEROUS SPOTS THERE HAVE RECEIVED A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF
RAIN. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR THIS WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM TO
MOVE INLAND TODAY WITHOUT MUCH PUNCH. RAIN WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND NORTH CASCADES WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S.

THERE IS A BACK EDGE TO THIS SYSTEM APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SO
SOME DRYING IS LIKELY TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THIS SYSTEM A BIT...NOW IT
APPEARS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL REACH THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. IT WILL RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...GIVING SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
GENERAL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED MODELS THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE AIMED AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING
AROUND ON JUST HOW STRONG THE RIDGE WILL BE AND IF THE RIDGE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE MOISTURE NORTH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE
00Z RUNS KEEP THE AREA WET THROUGH SUNDAY THEN TRY TO LIFT THE BAND
NORTH ON MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND SO WILL STAY
WIT WITH THE LIKELY POPS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE OLYMPICS BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT WHICH COULD CAUSE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS STABLE WITH MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN AS A WEAK
FRONT MOVES ONSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SW ON THU.

A WEAK FRONT IS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AND WILL PUSH INLAND
THIS EVENING. RADARS SHOW LIGHT RAIN OVER THE WESTERN OLYMPIC
PENINSULA WITH LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE NORTH INTERIOR. LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE OFFSHORE...SO PRECIPITATION IN THE INTERIOR
IS VERY LIGHT...FALLING FROM A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR CIGS ARE SEEN ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST. EXPECT CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY LOWER IN THE INTERIOR THROUGH THIS EVENING...FALLING TO
2000-3000 FT THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES INLAND. MAINLY MVFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ON THU...EXPECT THE LOWER LEVELS TO DRY
SOMEWHAT THU MORNING AS A WARM FRONT WELL TO THE SW APPROACHES THE
AREA AND FORCES LOW LEVEL PRES GRADIENTS TO BECOME MORE
OFFSHORE. ALBRECHT

KSEA...CIGS AROUND 100 WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO 050 THIS AFTERNOON
AND 025-030 ABOUT 02Z. IMPROVEMENT BACK TO OVC060-080 EXPECTED ABOUT
16Z THU. S WIND 4-8 KT THIS AFTN BECOMING ELY THU MORNING. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY THEN INLAND THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY S TO SE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
A FEW HOURS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SE WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED IN
ADMIRALTY INLET TODAY AS FLOW ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE OLYMPICS AND
PRODUCES A MESOSCALE LOW ON THE NE OLYMPIC PENINSULA. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.

A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE SW ON THU.
EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND AT THE ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT ON THU AND
CONTINUE THU NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NE THEN IS FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW FRI AFTERNOON OR EVENING INTO SAT
MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL AREA WHILE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WESTERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS SAT NIGHT OR SUN. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO
     60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
     SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
     TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ADMIRALTY
     INLET.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KPQR 101640
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
838 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AIR MASS TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRI.
WEAK FRONTS OFFSHORE WILL BRUSH THE NW TODAY AND THU...WITH VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY INLAND. THAT CHANGES BY FRI...AS FIRST
IN A SERIES OF FRONTS PUSH INTO THE PAC NW. SHOWERY ON SATURDAY...BUT
MORE RAIN ARRIVES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING
SHOWS A WEAKENING MID LEVEL FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AN 850MB
BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS INLAND SO HAVE KEPT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY. GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL HANG ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...CANNOT
RULE OUT A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO...BUT IN GENERAL...ANY RAIN THAT FALLS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND RATHER ISOLATED.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD ALONG 140W ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AT
THIS POINT...THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS WILL PRIMARILY
STAY OFFSHORE SO KEPT THE TREND OF KEEPING THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES AND LOWEST POPS ACROSS LANE AND LINN
COUNTIES. NONETHELESS...IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME RAIN ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AT SOME POINT THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY
SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN INTO THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD LOWERING INTO THE 4000-4500 FT RANGE ON FRIDAY. AS POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS SPREAD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW LEVELS MAY LOWER ANOTHER 500 FT OR SO AND BRING
SOME IMPACTS TO TRAVEL IN THE CASCADES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
CASCADES APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN UNDER WINTER WX ADVISORY CRITERIA
THOUGH.

A WARMER AND WETTER STORM SYSTEM APPEARS ON TRACK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
/NEUMAN



.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
COOLER ON SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS
SITTING AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FEET ON SAT...WITH SOME NEW SNOW EXPECTED
OVER THE CASCADES. NOT A LOT...BUT COULD SEE 3 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW AT THE PASSES AND ABOVE. RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE
PAC...WITH ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVING ON SUN. HAVE INCREASES PROB OF RAIN
ON SUNDAY. BRIEF BREAK ON MON...BUT LOOKS WET AFTERWARDS AS YET
ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES ON TUE. REST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS RATHER CLOUDY
AND WET...WITH SNOW LEVELS BOUNCING FROM 3500 TO 5500 FT.   ROCKEY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOST AREAS VFR THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
POCKETS OF IFR CIGS IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY NEAR KEUG AND
KCVO. A WEAK FRONT IS BRINGING RAIN...MVFR AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
UP TO 25 KT TO THE COAST THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INLAND BUT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST
RANGE AND AREAS NORTH OF PORTLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAY
SEE BRIEF PERIODIC MVFR CIGS BETWEEN SALEM AND PORTLAND...BUT
THINK VFR WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE SOUTH OF PORTLAND EAST OF THE
COAST RANGE. EXPECT MVFR VSBYS FOR THE COAST AND PARTS OF THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE
THE CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR NEXT 24 HRS. THERE MAY BE BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDY WITH VFR CIGS AND VSBYS TONIGHT. TJ
&&

.MARINE...BUOY 89 AND BUOY 50 ARE SHOWING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
GUSTS THIS MORNING AND THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR A LOW-END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY HAS IMPROVED. THE SEAS AT THE BUOYS
ARE 1 TO 2 FT BELOW GUIDANCE THIS MORNING AND HAVE ADJUSTED TODAYS
SWELL FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. THE SEAS STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO BUILD
TO 10 FT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TO ABOVE 10 FT THURSDAY...AS A
LONGER-PERIOD NW SWELL MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. THERE IS ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A COMPLEX LOW OFFSHORE WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED SEAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
    FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
    TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&



$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 101242
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
443 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure will persist today, with dry and
mild conditions however there will be increased cloud cover compared
to the last couple days. A more progressive and unsettled pattern
will return later this week, bringing a chance of light rain
Thursday in the Cascades, then throughout the region Friday
into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...The unusually strong ridge which has
blanketed the Inland Northwest for the past several days will
finally begin to weaken as minor upper level disturbances track
through the region. Looking at the latest satellite loops, the
first disturbance is currently tracking through the eastern third
of Washington right now, with another one moving into western
Washington. Based on GOES BUFR sounding and radar data, both are
rather minor features. The easternmost feature only contains high
clouds, while the western one is producing a few sprinkles near
the coast. This second feature is expected to move into the
Cascades later today and could produce some very light
precipitation mainly near the crest. Otherwise the main impact of
these systems will be an increased cloud trend compared to the
last couple days as well as slightly cooler temperatures.
Nonetheless, readings will still remain warmer than normal for
this time of year with highs generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s
for most valley locations. The exception once again will occur
over the far NW part of the forecast area, namely the Methow
Valley and Okanogan Valley and Highlands due to a very stubborn
cold pool near the ground. Looks like this could stick around
until we get a more robust front through the area, which won`t
likely be today. The other problem for today will be the potential
for fog. We suspect the coverage should be greater than we have
seen for the past couple days as the wind fields are generally
lighter with higher humidity levels. Hard to tell where most of it
will form, however the HRRR suggests most of it will occur over
the western Columbia Basin. This is not supported at this time by
the fog product but will bear watching. Meanwhile for the first
time this week, visibility restrictions were developing over parts
of the Spokane/CdA area and suspect the trend will be for
increasing fog. For tonight, the second front will receive a
little boost in strength as a shortwave trough currently around
127w moves inland. We don`t think this will produce much weather
other than a chance of light precipitation again near the
Cascades. The increased cloud cover should minimize the fog
potential overnight.

For Thursday and Thursday night...the ridge looks like it could
rebound again as pressure falls develop around 140w. The
interesting thing from this development is it takes the residual
moisture from tonight`s front and pivots it from a north-south
orientation to more of an east-west orientation as a warm front
pushes northward. The isentropic ascent from this front begins to
steepen and precipitation chances will increase steadily from
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Light to moderate
precipitation is expected to develop with a few locations near the
Cascades nearing up to half an inch. The remainder of the area
will see amounts generally ranging from .10-.25 inches. While most
of this will fall as rain with snow rising to 5500 feet near the
Canadian Border and to 7000 feet or higher south of I-90, there
is the possibility of a messy mix across the upper Methow Valley.
Model BUFR soundings are showing a temperature right around
freezing near the ground and extending up to nearly 5000 feet
through much of the event. Strangely the NAM BUFR is showing an
initial precip type of rain by midday Thursday followed by snow.
Given the warm air advection associated with the warm front and
little potential for wet bulb cooling, this seems unlikely.
However this will need to be watched especially if the
precipitation begins earlier and falls into an initially cooler
air mass. fx

Friday through Tuesday...An active weather pattern is expected
during the extended period. A cold front will track across the
Inland NW Friday into Friday night followed by cool and showery
weather on Saturday as the upper trough axis swings through. Snow
levels early on Friday start off at 6000-7000 feet before lowering
to 3000-4000 feet Saturday morning behind the cold front. Behind
the cold front mid level westerly flow will favor showers most
prevalent near the Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle with snow
showers expected over the passes. Given the time of year (mid-
February) and its associated higher sun angle compared to late
December road temperatures may be too warm for significant travel
impacts over the passes but this will continue to be monitored.
Another warm front will pass through Sunday into Monday bringing
another round of precipitation with rising snow levels. Monday
has the potential to be very mild with the Inland NW in the warm
sector with breezy south- southwest winds as pressure gradients
tighten. The details differ after Monday with the timing of a cold
front with the ECMWF showing Monday night and GFS Tuesday night.
Given these uncertainties no changes were made to the Tuesday
forecast which favors the slower solution. This front may bring
in breezy to windy conditions once it passes. JW


&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFS: Fog and stratus is much more prevalent this morning than
it`s been compared to the last few days. The latest fog product was
showing widespread stratus over most of the valleys of NE WA and N
ID. Confidence is high that this will bring IFR (or worse)
conditions to GEG and COE through at least 18z. Although there
wasn`t anything evident around SFF at 12z, it could easily spread
into there later this morning resulting in IFR conditions as well.
For now we will leave it out of the forecast as the steering flow is
quite weak. Patchy fog was also reported near EAT however the local
webcams suggest it is quite patchy and mainly located by the river.
Conditions there could vary rapidly. Also some stratus forming just
east of MWH and it could approach the airport later this
morning.Odds are not high however so we left it out of the forecast.
LWS and PUW will continue to see VFR conditions due to continued
east winds.  We suspect most of the low clouds will clear between 18-
20z with VFR conditions for all sites after that. Forecast
confidence for the overnight hours is low. We should see high clouds
pass over the area as a weak front passes through the region,
however whether or not this will impede the reformation of stratus
or fog is questionable. We suspect it won`t and placed IFR/MVFR
conditions back into the forecast between 06-09z for most sites. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        46  34  46  38  48  36 /   0   0  30  40  60  70
Coeur d`Alene  46  34  46  37  47  37 /   0   0  20  50  60  80
Pullman        51  39  51  40  52  38 /   0   0  10  20  50  60
Lewiston       55  40  56  42  57  42 /   0   0   0  10  40  50
Colville       42  32  41  35  42  36 /   0  10  50  70  60  70
Sandpoint      42  33  43  35  44  34 /   0  10  30  70  60  90
Kellogg        43  35  44  38  44  36 /   0   0  20  50  50  90
Moses Lake     47  34  47  38  48  37 /   0   0  30  30  50  40
Wenatchee      42  33  40  35  45  35 /   0   0  50  70  50  30
Omak           36  31  37  34  38  34 /   0   0  50  70  50  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 101140
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
340 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW WETTER WEATHER TO
RETURN TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT
WILL BRING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN
WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT REACHES THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER WARM
FRONT WILL BRING RAIN THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
BROUGHT THE RECORD SETTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA IS NOW
WELL TO THE EAST. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM WERE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S.

CLOUDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WEAK SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STILL SOME HOLES IN THE OVERCAST EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WITH TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS NEAR ZERO PATCHY
FOG IS STILL A POSSIBILITY. A COLORFUL SUNRISE IS ALSO STILL
POSSIBLE. DOPPLER RADAR PICKING UP SOME ECHOES EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORTING CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 12000 FEET
SO MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SYSTEM GETS NEAR THE COAST. THE FRONT IS
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND WEAKENING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF
LIKELY POPS ON THE COAST AND CHANCE POPS INLAND TODAY. WITH ALL
THE CLOUD COVER AND A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS ALOFT HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TUESDAY...IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
KEEPING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. A BIT OF A BREAK
LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE BOTTOM OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA DOWN TO NEAR
30N/150W...WILL REACH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S ON THURSDAY.

WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ARRIVING FRIDAY MORNING. 00Z AND NEW 06Z
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...
PUTTING IT EAST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL GO WITH
SHOWER WORDING FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL PATTERN IN THE
EXTENDED MODELS THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY MORNING. LONG FETCH OF
MOISTURE AIMED AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
TO THE SOUTH. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND ON JUST HOW
STRONG THE RIDGE WILL BE AND IF THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PUSH THE MOISTURE NORTH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE 00Z RUNS KEEP
THE AREA WET THROUGH SUNDAY THEN TRY TO LIFT THE BAND NORTH ON
MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND SO WILL STAY WIT WITH
THE LIKELY POPS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM A SERIES OF
WEAK FRONTS. THERE WILL BE RAIN AT TIMES ON THE COAST BUT
LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD DRY UP MOST OF THE RAIN FOR THE
INTERIOR OF WESTERN WA TODAY WITH JUST SOME SPRINKLES.

KSEA...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHEAST
WIND TO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE THU AND FRI...MOVING INLAND
SAT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS OVER THE OLYMPICS BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD CAUSE THE FLOOD PRONE SKOKOMISH TO
REACH FLOOD STAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10
     TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
     GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO
     CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
     GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML



000
FXUS66 KSEW 101140
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
340 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW WETTER WEATHER TO
RETURN TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT
WILL BRING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN
WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT REACHES THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER WARM
FRONT WILL BRING RAIN THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
BROUGHT THE RECORD SETTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA IS NOW
WELL TO THE EAST. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM WERE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S.

CLOUDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WEAK SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STILL SOME HOLES IN THE OVERCAST EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WITH TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS NEAR ZERO PATCHY
FOG IS STILL A POSSIBILITY. A COLORFUL SUNRISE IS ALSO STILL
POSSIBLE. DOPPLER RADAR PICKING UP SOME ECHOES EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORTING CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 12000 FEET
SO MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SYSTEM GETS NEAR THE COAST. THE FRONT IS
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND WEAKENING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF
LIKELY POPS ON THE COAST AND CHANCE POPS INLAND TODAY. WITH ALL
THE CLOUD COVER AND A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS ALOFT HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TUESDAY...IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
KEEPING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. A BIT OF A BREAK
LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE BOTTOM OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA DOWN TO NEAR
30N/150W...WILL REACH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S ON THURSDAY.

WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ARRIVING FRIDAY MORNING. 00Z AND NEW 06Z
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...
PUTTING IT EAST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL GO WITH
SHOWER WORDING FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL PATTERN IN THE
EXTENDED MODELS THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY MORNING. LONG FETCH OF
MOISTURE AIMED AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
TO THE SOUTH. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND ON JUST HOW
STRONG THE RIDGE WILL BE AND IF THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PUSH THE MOISTURE NORTH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE 00Z RUNS KEEP
THE AREA WET THROUGH SUNDAY THEN TRY TO LIFT THE BAND NORTH ON
MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND SO WILL STAY WIT WITH
THE LIKELY POPS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM A SERIES OF
WEAK FRONTS. THERE WILL BE RAIN AT TIMES ON THE COAST BUT
LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD DRY UP MOST OF THE RAIN FOR THE
INTERIOR OF WESTERN WA TODAY WITH JUST SOME SPRINKLES.

KSEA...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHEAST
WIND TO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE THU AND FRI...MOVING INLAND
SAT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS OVER THE OLYMPICS BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD CAUSE THE FLOOD PRONE SKOKOMISH TO
REACH FLOOD STAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10
     TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
     GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO
     CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
     GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KSEW 101140
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
340 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW WETTER WEATHER TO
RETURN TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT
WILL BRING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN
WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT REACHES THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER WARM
FRONT WILL BRING RAIN THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
BROUGHT THE RECORD SETTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA IS NOW
WELL TO THE EAST. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM WERE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S.

CLOUDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WEAK SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STILL SOME HOLES IN THE OVERCAST EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WITH TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS NEAR ZERO PATCHY
FOG IS STILL A POSSIBILITY. A COLORFUL SUNRISE IS ALSO STILL
POSSIBLE. DOPPLER RADAR PICKING UP SOME ECHOES EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORTING CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 12000 FEET
SO MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SYSTEM GETS NEAR THE COAST. THE FRONT IS
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND WEAKENING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF
LIKELY POPS ON THE COAST AND CHANCE POPS INLAND TODAY. WITH ALL
THE CLOUD COVER AND A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS ALOFT HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TUESDAY...IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
KEEPING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. A BIT OF A BREAK
LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE BOTTOM OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA DOWN TO NEAR
30N/150W...WILL REACH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S ON THURSDAY.

WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ARRIVING FRIDAY MORNING. 00Z AND NEW 06Z
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...
PUTTING IT EAST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL GO WITH
SHOWER WORDING FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL PATTERN IN THE
EXTENDED MODELS THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY MORNING. LONG FETCH OF
MOISTURE AIMED AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
TO THE SOUTH. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND ON JUST HOW
STRONG THE RIDGE WILL BE AND IF THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PUSH THE MOISTURE NORTH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE 00Z RUNS KEEP
THE AREA WET THROUGH SUNDAY THEN TRY TO LIFT THE BAND NORTH ON
MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND SO WILL STAY WIT WITH
THE LIKELY POPS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW ALOFT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM A SERIES OF
WEAK FRONTS. THERE WILL BE RAIN AT TIMES ON THE COAST BUT
LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD DRY UP MOST OF THE RAIN FOR THE
INTERIOR OF WESTERN WA TODAY WITH JUST SOME SPRINKLES.

KSEA...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHEAST
WIND TO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE THU AND FRI...MOVING INLAND
SAT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS OVER THE OLYMPICS BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD CAUSE THE FLOOD PRONE SKOKOMISH TO
REACH FLOOD STAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10
     TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
     GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO
     CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
     GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML




000
FXUS66 KPQR 101106
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
247 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AIR MASS TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRI.
WEAK FRONTS OFFSHORE WILL BRUSH THE NW TODAY AND THU...WITH VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY INLAND. THAT CHANGES BY FRI...AS FIRST
IN A SERIES OF FRONTS PUSH INTO THE PAC NW. SHOWERY ON SATURDAY...BUT
MORE RAIN ARRIVES ON SUNDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY AND THU.
THAT MEANS MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD OVER THE REGION. AT
SAME TIME...SEVERAL WEAKENING FRONTS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
WHILE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...WILL SEE
CONSIDERABLY MORE IN WAY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
THU.

REMAINS OF THE FIRST FRONT SITS JUST OFFSHORE THIS AM...AND WILL MOVE
INLAND TODAY. NOT MUCH IN WAY OF RAIN...BUT SHOULD SEE SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN ON THE COAST WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FURTHER
INLAND...SHOULD JUST SEE OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES OR POSSIBLY A BRIEF
LIGHT SHOWER. OVERALL...DRY INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT.  MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT THIS WEAK BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK TO THE N AS A WARM
FRONT ON THU. AGAIN...NOT A LOT OF PRECIPITATION BUT ENOUGH FOR
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND INTO SW WASHINGTON.

WITH LACK OF ANY AIR MASS CHANGE...AND WEAK WINDS OVER REGION... THE
MILD TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE. NORMALS HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF FEB
ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S. SO...WILL KEEP FORECAST HIGHS FOR
NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

FOR PAST MANY DAYS...MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING FIRST DECENT SHOT OF
RAIN WOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION ON FRI AS A MODERATELY STRONG COLD
FRONT ARRIVES. NO CHANGES TO THAT THOUGHT TRAIN. WILL KEEP RAIN IN
FORECAST ON FRI...WITH 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OVER COAST RANGE AND S WASH
CASCADES...WITH 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH ELSEWHERE.  SNOW LEVELS REMAIN
ABOVE 8000 FT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON...THEN WILL LOWER TO 3500 TO 4000
FT BY LATE FRI NIGHT.      ROCKEY.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
COOLER ON SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS
SITTING AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FEET ON SAT...WITH SOME NEW SNOW EXPECTED
OVER THE CASCADES. NOT A LOT...BUT COULD SEE 3 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW AT THE PASSES AND ABOVE. RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE
PAC...WITH ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVING ON SUN. HAVE INCREASES PROB OF RAIN
ON SUNDAY. BRIEF BREAK ON MON...BUT LOOKS WET AFTERWARDS AS YET
ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES ON TUE. REST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS RATHER CLOUDY
AND WET...WITH SNOW LEVELS BOUNCING FROM 3500 TO 5500 FT.   ROCKEY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR MOST AREAS ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG UNDER THE HIGH OVERCAST. AT THIS TIME...NOTHING IS AT
THE TAF TERMINALS AND KUAO IS THE ONLY SITE SHOWING ANY VISIBILITY
REDUCTION. KEUG BRIEFLY FOGGED IN EARLIER BUT INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE SCOURED IT OUT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDS THROUGH 11/12Z. A WEAK FRONT BRUSHES THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY BRING HIGHER END MVFR CIGS TO THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. NOT MUCH IMPACT EXPECTED INLAND ASIDE FROM VERY LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE 16Z-03Z AS CONDS LIKELY REMAIN VFR.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR NEXT 24 HRS. MAY GET SOME PERIODS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATION OVER THE CASCADES AS WEAK RAIN BANDS
CROSS THE AREA 20Z-03Z. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...A DECAYING FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL WITH REGARD TO THE WIND STRENGTH. WIND
SPEEDS ARE CURRENTLY BEING OVERDONE BY MODELS BY A FEW KTS. ALSO
SHORTENED THE TIME OF THE SCA FOR WINDS BY SEVERAL HOURS BUT EVEN
WITH THE WEAKER WINDS, IT APPEARS THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH WIND
TO JUSTIFY THE SCA FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF FREQUENT 21-25 KT
GUSTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA DURING THE INITIAL EVENT
BUT BECOME SOMEWHAT STEEP REACHING 7-9 FT AT 11-13 SEC.

THE LARGE AND COMPLEX PARENT LOW CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WELL OFFSHORE WILL SWING THE NEXT FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS
THURSDAY AND ANOTHER ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THE THURSDAY SYSTEM
IS TRENDING WEAKER OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS BUT DOES STILL APPEAR TO
BE STRONGER THEN THE IMPENDING QUESTIONABLE FRONT. SUNDAY`S WOULD
BE THE STRONGEST ASSUMING MODELS SETTLE IN ON A COMMON SOLUTION.

REGARDLESS...THE SET OF EMBEDDED LOWS INSIDE THE PARENT LOW IS
GENERATING NUMEROUS SETS OF SWELL TRAINS. THE LEADING EDGE OF
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL REACH THE OUTER WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL POSSIBLY STAY 10-15 FEET AND BECOME CONFUSED AT
TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. DECIDED TO ONLY ISSUE A SCA FOR
SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY DAYLIGHT WITH CONFIDENCE BECOMING LIMITED
THEREAFTER GIVEN THE TIME RANGE. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

WA...NONE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR T0DAY ON ALL WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON ALL WATERS
 TODAY THROUGH FRI.

&&



$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 101106
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
247 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AIR MASS TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRI.
WEAK FRONTS OFFSHORE WILL BRUSH THE NW TODAY AND THU...WITH VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY INLAND. THAT CHANGES BY FRI...AS FIRST
IN A SERIES OF FRONTS PUSH INTO THE PAC NW. SHOWERY ON SATURDAY...BUT
MORE RAIN ARRIVES ON SUNDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY AND THU.
THAT MEANS MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD OVER THE REGION. AT
SAME TIME...SEVERAL WEAKENING FRONTS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
WHILE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...WILL SEE
CONSIDERABLY MORE IN WAY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
THU.

REMAINS OF THE FIRST FRONT SITS JUST OFFSHORE THIS AM...AND WILL MOVE
INLAND TODAY. NOT MUCH IN WAY OF RAIN...BUT SHOULD SEE SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN ON THE COAST WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FURTHER
INLAND...SHOULD JUST SEE OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES OR POSSIBLY A BRIEF
LIGHT SHOWER. OVERALL...DRY INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT.  MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT THIS WEAK BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK TO THE N AS A WARM
FRONT ON THU. AGAIN...NOT A LOT OF PRECIPITATION BUT ENOUGH FOR
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND INTO SW WASHINGTON.

WITH LACK OF ANY AIR MASS CHANGE...AND WEAK WINDS OVER REGION... THE
MILD TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE. NORMALS HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF FEB
ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S. SO...WILL KEEP FORECAST HIGHS FOR
NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

FOR PAST MANY DAYS...MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING FIRST DECENT SHOT OF
RAIN WOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION ON FRI AS A MODERATELY STRONG COLD
FRONT ARRIVES. NO CHANGES TO THAT THOUGHT TRAIN. WILL KEEP RAIN IN
FORECAST ON FRI...WITH 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OVER COAST RANGE AND S WASH
CASCADES...WITH 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH ELSEWHERE.  SNOW LEVELS REMAIN
ABOVE 8000 FT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON...THEN WILL LOWER TO 3500 TO 4000
FT BY LATE FRI NIGHT.      ROCKEY.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
COOLER ON SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS
SITTING AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FEET ON SAT...WITH SOME NEW SNOW EXPECTED
OVER THE CASCADES. NOT A LOT...BUT COULD SEE 3 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW AT THE PASSES AND ABOVE. RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE
PAC...WITH ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVING ON SUN. HAVE INCREASES PROB OF RAIN
ON SUNDAY. BRIEF BREAK ON MON...BUT LOOKS WET AFTERWARDS AS YET
ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES ON TUE. REST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS RATHER CLOUDY
AND WET...WITH SNOW LEVELS BOUNCING FROM 3500 TO 5500 FT.   ROCKEY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR MOST AREAS ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG UNDER THE HIGH OVERCAST. AT THIS TIME...NOTHING IS AT
THE TAF TERMINALS AND KUAO IS THE ONLY SITE SHOWING ANY VISIBILITY
REDUCTION. KEUG BRIEFLY FOGGED IN EARLIER BUT INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE SCOURED IT OUT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDS THROUGH 11/12Z. A WEAK FRONT BRUSHES THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY BRING HIGHER END MVFR CIGS TO THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. NOT MUCH IMPACT EXPECTED INLAND ASIDE FROM VERY LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE 16Z-03Z AS CONDS LIKELY REMAIN VFR.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR NEXT 24 HRS. MAY GET SOME PERIODS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATION OVER THE CASCADES AS WEAK RAIN BANDS
CROSS THE AREA 20Z-03Z. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...A DECAYING FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL WITH REGARD TO THE WIND STRENGTH. WIND
SPEEDS ARE CURRENTLY BEING OVERDONE BY MODELS BY A FEW KTS. ALSO
SHORTENED THE TIME OF THE SCA FOR WINDS BY SEVERAL HOURS BUT EVEN
WITH THE WEAKER WINDS, IT APPEARS THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH WIND
TO JUSTIFY THE SCA FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF FREQUENT 21-25 KT
GUSTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA DURING THE INITIAL EVENT
BUT BECOME SOMEWHAT STEEP REACHING 7-9 FT AT 11-13 SEC.

THE LARGE AND COMPLEX PARENT LOW CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WELL OFFSHORE WILL SWING THE NEXT FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS
THURSDAY AND ANOTHER ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THE THURSDAY SYSTEM
IS TRENDING WEAKER OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS BUT DOES STILL APPEAR TO
BE STRONGER THEN THE IMPENDING QUESTIONABLE FRONT. SUNDAY`S WOULD
BE THE STRONGEST ASSUMING MODELS SETTLE IN ON A COMMON SOLUTION.

REGARDLESS...THE SET OF EMBEDDED LOWS INSIDE THE PARENT LOW IS
GENERATING NUMEROUS SETS OF SWELL TRAINS. THE LEADING EDGE OF
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL REACH THE OUTER WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL POSSIBLY STAY 10-15 FEET AND BECOME CONFUSED AT
TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. DECIDED TO ONLY ISSUE A SCA FOR
SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY DAYLIGHT WITH CONFIDENCE BECOMING LIMITED
THEREAFTER GIVEN THE TIME RANGE. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

WA...NONE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR T0DAY ON ALL WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON ALL WATERS
 TODAY THROUGH FRI.

&&



$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 101106
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
247 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AIR MASS TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRI.
WEAK FRONTS OFFSHORE WILL BRUSH THE NW TODAY AND THU...WITH VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY INLAND. THAT CHANGES BY FRI...AS FIRST
IN A SERIES OF FRONTS PUSH INTO THE PAC NW. SHOWERY ON SATURDAY...BUT
MORE RAIN ARRIVES ON SUNDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY AND THU.
THAT MEANS MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD OVER THE REGION. AT
SAME TIME...SEVERAL WEAKENING FRONTS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
WHILE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...WILL SEE
CONSIDERABLY MORE IN WAY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
THU.

REMAINS OF THE FIRST FRONT SITS JUST OFFSHORE THIS AM...AND WILL MOVE
INLAND TODAY. NOT MUCH IN WAY OF RAIN...BUT SHOULD SEE SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN ON THE COAST WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FURTHER
INLAND...SHOULD JUST SEE OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES OR POSSIBLY A BRIEF
LIGHT SHOWER. OVERALL...DRY INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT.  MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT THIS WEAK BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK TO THE N AS A WARM
FRONT ON THU. AGAIN...NOT A LOT OF PRECIPITATION BUT ENOUGH FOR
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND INTO SW WASHINGTON.

WITH LACK OF ANY AIR MASS CHANGE...AND WEAK WINDS OVER REGION... THE
MILD TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE. NORMALS HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF FEB
ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S. SO...WILL KEEP FORECAST HIGHS FOR
NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

FOR PAST MANY DAYS...MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING FIRST DECENT SHOT OF
RAIN WOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION ON FRI AS A MODERATELY STRONG COLD
FRONT ARRIVES. NO CHANGES TO THAT THOUGHT TRAIN. WILL KEEP RAIN IN
FORECAST ON FRI...WITH 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OVER COAST RANGE AND S WASH
CASCADES...WITH 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH ELSEWHERE.  SNOW LEVELS REMAIN
ABOVE 8000 FT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON...THEN WILL LOWER TO 3500 TO 4000
FT BY LATE FRI NIGHT.      ROCKEY.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
COOLER ON SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS
SITTING AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FEET ON SAT...WITH SOME NEW SNOW EXPECTED
OVER THE CASCADES. NOT A LOT...BUT COULD SEE 3 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW AT THE PASSES AND ABOVE. RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE
PAC...WITH ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVING ON SUN. HAVE INCREASES PROB OF RAIN
ON SUNDAY. BRIEF BREAK ON MON...BUT LOOKS WET AFTERWARDS AS YET
ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES ON TUE. REST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS RATHER CLOUDY
AND WET...WITH SNOW LEVELS BOUNCING FROM 3500 TO 5500 FT.   ROCKEY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR MOST AREAS ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG UNDER THE HIGH OVERCAST. AT THIS TIME...NOTHING IS AT
THE TAF TERMINALS AND KUAO IS THE ONLY SITE SHOWING ANY VISIBILITY
REDUCTION. KEUG BRIEFLY FOGGED IN EARLIER BUT INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE SCOURED IT OUT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDS THROUGH 11/12Z. A WEAK FRONT BRUSHES THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY BRING HIGHER END MVFR CIGS TO THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. NOT MUCH IMPACT EXPECTED INLAND ASIDE FROM VERY LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE 16Z-03Z AS CONDS LIKELY REMAIN VFR.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR NEXT 24 HRS. MAY GET SOME PERIODS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATION OVER THE CASCADES AS WEAK RAIN BANDS
CROSS THE AREA 20Z-03Z. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...A DECAYING FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL WITH REGARD TO THE WIND STRENGTH. WIND
SPEEDS ARE CURRENTLY BEING OVERDONE BY MODELS BY A FEW KTS. ALSO
SHORTENED THE TIME OF THE SCA FOR WINDS BY SEVERAL HOURS BUT EVEN
WITH THE WEAKER WINDS, IT APPEARS THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH WIND
TO JUSTIFY THE SCA FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF FREQUENT 21-25 KT
GUSTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA DURING THE INITIAL EVENT
BUT BECOME SOMEWHAT STEEP REACHING 7-9 FT AT 11-13 SEC.

THE LARGE AND COMPLEX PARENT LOW CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WELL OFFSHORE WILL SWING THE NEXT FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS
THURSDAY AND ANOTHER ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THE THURSDAY SYSTEM
IS TRENDING WEAKER OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS BUT DOES STILL APPEAR TO
BE STRONGER THEN THE IMPENDING QUESTIONABLE FRONT. SUNDAY`S WOULD
BE THE STRONGEST ASSUMING MODELS SETTLE IN ON A COMMON SOLUTION.

REGARDLESS...THE SET OF EMBEDDED LOWS INSIDE THE PARENT LOW IS
GENERATING NUMEROUS SETS OF SWELL TRAINS. THE LEADING EDGE OF
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL REACH THE OUTER WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL POSSIBLY STAY 10-15 FEET AND BECOME CONFUSED AT
TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. DECIDED TO ONLY ISSUE A SCA FOR
SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY DAYLIGHT WITH CONFIDENCE BECOMING LIMITED
THEREAFTER GIVEN THE TIME RANGE. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

WA...NONE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR T0DAY ON ALL WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON ALL WATERS
 TODAY THROUGH FRI.

&&



$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 101106
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
247 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AIR MASS TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRI.
WEAK FRONTS OFFSHORE WILL BRUSH THE NW TODAY AND THU...WITH VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY INLAND. THAT CHANGES BY FRI...AS FIRST
IN A SERIES OF FRONTS PUSH INTO THE PAC NW. SHOWERY ON SATURDAY...BUT
MORE RAIN ARRIVES ON SUNDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY AND THU.
THAT MEANS MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD OVER THE REGION. AT
SAME TIME...SEVERAL WEAKENING FRONTS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
WHILE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...WILL SEE
CONSIDERABLY MORE IN WAY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
THU.

REMAINS OF THE FIRST FRONT SITS JUST OFFSHORE THIS AM...AND WILL MOVE
INLAND TODAY. NOT MUCH IN WAY OF RAIN...BUT SHOULD SEE SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN ON THE COAST WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FURTHER
INLAND...SHOULD JUST SEE OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES OR POSSIBLY A BRIEF
LIGHT SHOWER. OVERALL...DRY INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT.  MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT THIS WEAK BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK TO THE N AS A WARM
FRONT ON THU. AGAIN...NOT A LOT OF PRECIPITATION BUT ENOUGH FOR
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND INTO SW WASHINGTON.

WITH LACK OF ANY AIR MASS CHANGE...AND WEAK WINDS OVER REGION... THE
MILD TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE. NORMALS HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF FEB
ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S. SO...WILL KEEP FORECAST HIGHS FOR
NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

FOR PAST MANY DAYS...MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING FIRST DECENT SHOT OF
RAIN WOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION ON FRI AS A MODERATELY STRONG COLD
FRONT ARRIVES. NO CHANGES TO THAT THOUGHT TRAIN. WILL KEEP RAIN IN
FORECAST ON FRI...WITH 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OVER COAST RANGE AND S WASH
CASCADES...WITH 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH ELSEWHERE.  SNOW LEVELS REMAIN
ABOVE 8000 FT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON...THEN WILL LOWER TO 3500 TO 4000
FT BY LATE FRI NIGHT.      ROCKEY.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
COOLER ON SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS
SITTING AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FEET ON SAT...WITH SOME NEW SNOW EXPECTED
OVER THE CASCADES. NOT A LOT...BUT COULD SEE 3 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW AT THE PASSES AND ABOVE. RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE
PAC...WITH ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVING ON SUN. HAVE INCREASES PROB OF RAIN
ON SUNDAY. BRIEF BREAK ON MON...BUT LOOKS WET AFTERWARDS AS YET
ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES ON TUE. REST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS RATHER CLOUDY
AND WET...WITH SNOW LEVELS BOUNCING FROM 3500 TO 5500 FT.   ROCKEY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR MOST AREAS ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG UNDER THE HIGH OVERCAST. AT THIS TIME...NOTHING IS AT
THE TAF TERMINALS AND KUAO IS THE ONLY SITE SHOWING ANY VISIBILITY
REDUCTION. KEUG BRIEFLY FOGGED IN EARLIER BUT INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE SCOURED IT OUT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDS THROUGH 11/12Z. A WEAK FRONT BRUSHES THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY BRING HIGHER END MVFR CIGS TO THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. NOT MUCH IMPACT EXPECTED INLAND ASIDE FROM VERY LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE 16Z-03Z AS CONDS LIKELY REMAIN VFR.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR NEXT 24 HRS. MAY GET SOME PERIODS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATION OVER THE CASCADES AS WEAK RAIN BANDS
CROSS THE AREA 20Z-03Z. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...A DECAYING FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL WITH REGARD TO THE WIND STRENGTH. WIND
SPEEDS ARE CURRENTLY BEING OVERDONE BY MODELS BY A FEW KTS. ALSO
SHORTENED THE TIME OF THE SCA FOR WINDS BY SEVERAL HOURS BUT EVEN
WITH THE WEAKER WINDS, IT APPEARS THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH WIND
TO JUSTIFY THE SCA FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF FREQUENT 21-25 KT
GUSTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA DURING THE INITIAL EVENT
BUT BECOME SOMEWHAT STEEP REACHING 7-9 FT AT 11-13 SEC.

THE LARGE AND COMPLEX PARENT LOW CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WELL OFFSHORE WILL SWING THE NEXT FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS
THURSDAY AND ANOTHER ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THE THURSDAY SYSTEM
IS TRENDING WEAKER OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS BUT DOES STILL APPEAR TO
BE STRONGER THEN THE IMPENDING QUESTIONABLE FRONT. SUNDAY`S WOULD
BE THE STRONGEST ASSUMING MODELS SETTLE IN ON A COMMON SOLUTION.

REGARDLESS...THE SET OF EMBEDDED LOWS INSIDE THE PARENT LOW IS
GENERATING NUMEROUS SETS OF SWELL TRAINS. THE LEADING EDGE OF
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL REACH THE OUTER WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL POSSIBLY STAY 10-15 FEET AND BECOME CONFUSED AT
TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. DECIDED TO ONLY ISSUE A SCA FOR
SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY DAYLIGHT WITH CONFIDENCE BECOMING LIMITED
THEREAFTER GIVEN THE TIME RANGE. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

WA...NONE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR T0DAY ON ALL WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON ALL WATERS
 TODAY THROUGH FRI.

&&



$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 101106
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
247 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AIR MASS TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRI.
WEAK FRONTS OFFSHORE WILL BRUSH THE NW TODAY AND THU...WITH VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY INLAND. THAT CHANGES BY FRI...AS FIRST
IN A SERIES OF FRONTS PUSH INTO THE PAC NW. SHOWERY ON SATURDAY...BUT
MORE RAIN ARRIVES ON SUNDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY AND THU.
THAT MEANS MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD OVER THE REGION. AT
SAME TIME...SEVERAL WEAKENING FRONTS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
WHILE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...WILL SEE
CONSIDERABLY MORE IN WAY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
THU.

REMAINS OF THE FIRST FRONT SITS JUST OFFSHORE THIS AM...AND WILL MOVE
INLAND TODAY. NOT MUCH IN WAY OF RAIN...BUT SHOULD SEE SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN ON THE COAST WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FURTHER
INLAND...SHOULD JUST SEE OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES OR POSSIBLY A BRIEF
LIGHT SHOWER. OVERALL...DRY INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT.  MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT THIS WEAK BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK TO THE N AS A WARM
FRONT ON THU. AGAIN...NOT A LOT OF PRECIPITATION BUT ENOUGH FOR
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND INTO SW WASHINGTON.

WITH LACK OF ANY AIR MASS CHANGE...AND WEAK WINDS OVER REGION... THE
MILD TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE. NORMALS HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF FEB
ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S. SO...WILL KEEP FORECAST HIGHS FOR
NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

FOR PAST MANY DAYS...MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING FIRST DECENT SHOT OF
RAIN WOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION ON FRI AS A MODERATELY STRONG COLD
FRONT ARRIVES. NO CHANGES TO THAT THOUGHT TRAIN. WILL KEEP RAIN IN
FORECAST ON FRI...WITH 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OVER COAST RANGE AND S WASH
CASCADES...WITH 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH ELSEWHERE.  SNOW LEVELS REMAIN
ABOVE 8000 FT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON...THEN WILL LOWER TO 3500 TO 4000
FT BY LATE FRI NIGHT.      ROCKEY.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
COOLER ON SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS
SITTING AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FEET ON SAT...WITH SOME NEW SNOW EXPECTED
OVER THE CASCADES. NOT A LOT...BUT COULD SEE 3 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW AT THE PASSES AND ABOVE. RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE
PAC...WITH ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVING ON SUN. HAVE INCREASES PROB OF RAIN
ON SUNDAY. BRIEF BREAK ON MON...BUT LOOKS WET AFTERWARDS AS YET
ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES ON TUE. REST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS RATHER CLOUDY
AND WET...WITH SNOW LEVELS BOUNCING FROM 3500 TO 5500 FT.   ROCKEY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR MOST AREAS ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG UNDER THE HIGH OVERCAST. AT THIS TIME...NOTHING IS AT
THE TAF TERMINALS AND KUAO IS THE ONLY SITE SHOWING ANY VISIBILITY
REDUCTION. KEUG BRIEFLY FOGGED IN EARLIER BUT INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE SCOURED IT OUT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDS THROUGH 11/12Z. A WEAK FRONT BRUSHES THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY BRING HIGHER END MVFR CIGS TO THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. NOT MUCH IMPACT EXPECTED INLAND ASIDE FROM VERY LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE 16Z-03Z AS CONDS LIKELY REMAIN VFR.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR NEXT 24 HRS. MAY GET SOME PERIODS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATION OVER THE CASCADES AS WEAK RAIN BANDS
CROSS THE AREA 20Z-03Z. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...A DECAYING FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL WITH REGARD TO THE WIND STRENGTH. WIND
SPEEDS ARE CURRENTLY BEING OVERDONE BY MODELS BY A FEW KTS. ALSO
SHORTENED THE TIME OF THE SCA FOR WINDS BY SEVERAL HOURS BUT EVEN
WITH THE WEAKER WINDS, IT APPEARS THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH WIND
TO JUSTIFY THE SCA FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF FREQUENT 21-25 KT
GUSTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA DURING THE INITIAL EVENT
BUT BECOME SOMEWHAT STEEP REACHING 7-9 FT AT 11-13 SEC.

THE LARGE AND COMPLEX PARENT LOW CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WELL OFFSHORE WILL SWING THE NEXT FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS
THURSDAY AND ANOTHER ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THE THURSDAY SYSTEM
IS TRENDING WEAKER OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS BUT DOES STILL APPEAR TO
BE STRONGER THEN THE IMPENDING QUESTIONABLE FRONT. SUNDAY`S WOULD
BE THE STRONGEST ASSUMING MODELS SETTLE IN ON A COMMON SOLUTION.

REGARDLESS...THE SET OF EMBEDDED LOWS INSIDE THE PARENT LOW IS
GENERATING NUMEROUS SETS OF SWELL TRAINS. THE LEADING EDGE OF
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL REACH THE OUTER WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL POSSIBLY STAY 10-15 FEET AND BECOME CONFUSED AT
TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. DECIDED TO ONLY ISSUE A SCA FOR
SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY DAYLIGHT WITH CONFIDENCE BECOMING LIMITED
THEREAFTER GIVEN THE TIME RANGE. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

WA...NONE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR T0DAY ON ALL WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON ALL WATERS
 TODAY THROUGH FRI.

&&



$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 101103
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
303 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will persist into Wednesday, with dry and
mild conditions. A more progressive and unsettled pattern will
return late this week, bringing a chance of light rain Thursday in
the Cascades, then throughout the region Friday into the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...The unusually strong ridge which has
blanketed the Inland Northwest for the past several days will
finally begin to weaken as minor upper level disturbances track
through the region. Looking at the latest satellite loops, the
first disturbance is currently tracking through the eastern third
of Washington right now, with another one moving into western
Washington. Based on GOES BUFR sounding and radar data, both are
rather minor features. The easternmost feature only contains high
clouds, while the western one is producing a few sprinkles near
the coast. This second feature is expected to move into the
Cascades later today and could produce some very light
precipitation mainly near the crest. Otherwise the main impact of
these systems will be an increased cloud trend compared to the
last couple days as well as slightly cooler temperatures.
Nonetheless, readings will still remain warmer than normal for
this time of year with highs generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s
for most valley locations. The exception once again will occur
over the far NW part of the forecast area, namely the Methow
Valley and Okanogan Valley and Highlands due to a very stubborn
cold pool near the ground. Looks like this could stick around
until we get a more robust front through the area, which won`t
likely be today. The other problem for today will be the potential
for fog. We suspect the coverage should be greater than we have
seen for the past couple days as the wind fields are generally
lighter with higher humidity levels. Hard to tell where most of it
will form, however the HRRR suggests most of it will occur over
the western Columbia Basin. This is not supported at this time by
the fog product but will bear watching. Meanwhile for the first
time this week, visibility restrictions were developing over parts
of the Spokane/CdA area and suspect the trend will be for
increasing fog. For tonight, the second front will receive a
little boost in strength as a shortwave trough currently around
127w moves inland. We don`t think this will produce much weather
other than a chance of light precipitation again near the
Cascades. The increased cloud cover should minimize the fog
potential overnight.

For Thursday and Thursday night...the ridge looks like it could
rebound again as pressure falls develop around 140w. The
interesting thing from this development is it takes the residual
moisture from tonight`s front and pivots it from a north-south
orientation to more of an east-west orientation as a warm front
pushes northward. The isentropic ascent from this front begins to
steepen and precipitation chances will increase steadily from
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Light to moderate
precipitation is expected to develop with a few locations near the
Cascades nearing up to half an inch. The remainder of the area
will see amounts generally ranging from .10-.25 inches. While most
of this will fall as rain with snow rising to 5500 feet near the
Canadian Border and to 7000 feet or higher south of I-90, there
is the possibility of a messy mix across the upper Methow Valley.
Model BUFR soundings are showing a temperature right around
freezing near the ground and extending up to nearly 5000 feet
through much of the event. Strangely the NAM BUFR is showing an
initial precip type of rain by midday Thursday followed by snow.
Given the warm air advection associated with the warm front and
little potential for wet bulb cooling, this seems unlikely.
However this will need to be watched especially if the
precipitation begins earlier and falls into an initially cooler
air mass. fx

Friday through Tuesday...An active weather pattern is expected
during the extended period. A cold front will track across the
Inland NW Friday into Friday night followed by cool and showery
weather on Saturday as the upper trough axis swings through. Snow
levels early on Friday start off at 6000-7000 feet before lowering
to 3000-4000 feet Saturday morning behind the cold front. Behind
the cold front mid level westerly flow will favor showers most
prevalent near the Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle with snow
showers expected over the passes. Given the time of year (mid-
February) and its associated higher sun angle compared to late
December road temperatures may be too warm for significant travel
impacts over the passes but this will continue to be monitored.
Another warm front will pass through Sunday into Monday bringing
another round of precipitation with rising snow levels. Monday
has the potential to be very mild with the Inland NW in the warm
sector with breezy south- southwest winds as pressure gradients
tighten. The details differ after Monday with the timing of a cold
front with the ECMWF showing Monday night and GFS Tuesday night.
Given these uncertainties no changes were made to the Tuesday
forecast which favors the slower solution. This front may bring
in breezy to windy conditions once it passes. JW


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Fog and stratus was observed for most of the mountain
valleys this morning and along the Spokane/Columbia
rivers...closer to water sources. The inversion will remain strong
again tonight and fog/stratus will likely form in those areas
again tonight. However the strong ridge of high pressure that has
been over the region will shift east and bend slightly overnight.
This will allow upper level clouds to move into the region
overnight as well...and this may mitigate somewhat the strong
radiational cooling. In addition the surface flow will gradually
come around to southerly through the evening and this should pile
up the moisture for the northern valleys. With the exception of
the eastern basin and the Palouse at least some fog and stratus
will be possible for the TAF sites. So KLWS/KPUW can expect VFR
conditions through 00z. At the other TAF sites current VFR
conditions will likely drop down to MVFR cigs/vsby between 12-18z
then bounce back to VFR with a thickening but high cloud deck.
Tobin



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        46  34  46  38  48  36 /   0   0  30  40  60  70
Coeur d`Alene  46  34  46  37  47  37 /   0   0  20  50  60  80
Pullman        51  39  51  40  52  38 /   0   0  10  20  50  60
Lewiston       55  40  56  42  57  42 /   0   0   0  10  40  50
Colville       42  32  41  35  42  36 /   0  10  50  70  60  70
Sandpoint      42  33  43  35  44  34 /   0  10  30  70  60  90
Kellogg        43  35  44  38  44  36 /   0   0  20  50  50  90
Moses Lake     47  34  47  38  48  37 /   0   0  30  30  50  40
Wenatchee      42  33  40  35  45  35 /   0   0  50  70  50  30
Omak           36  31  37  34  38  34 /   0   0  50  70  50  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 101103
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
303 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will persist into Wednesday, with dry and
mild conditions. A more progressive and unsettled pattern will
return late this week, bringing a chance of light rain Thursday in
the Cascades, then throughout the region Friday into the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...The unusually strong ridge which has
blanketed the Inland Northwest for the past several days will
finally begin to weaken as minor upper level disturbances track
through the region. Looking at the latest satellite loops, the
first disturbance is currently tracking through the eastern third
of Washington right now, with another one moving into western
Washington. Based on GOES BUFR sounding and radar data, both are
rather minor features. The easternmost feature only contains high
clouds, while the western one is producing a few sprinkles near
the coast. This second feature is expected to move into the
Cascades later today and could produce some very light
precipitation mainly near the crest. Otherwise the main impact of
these systems will be an increased cloud trend compared to the
last couple days as well as slightly cooler temperatures.
Nonetheless, readings will still remain warmer than normal for
this time of year with highs generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s
for most valley locations. The exception once again will occur
over the far NW part of the forecast area, namely the Methow
Valley and Okanogan Valley and Highlands due to a very stubborn
cold pool near the ground. Looks like this could stick around
until we get a more robust front through the area, which won`t
likely be today. The other problem for today will be the potential
for fog. We suspect the coverage should be greater than we have
seen for the past couple days as the wind fields are generally
lighter with higher humidity levels. Hard to tell where most of it
will form, however the HRRR suggests most of it will occur over
the western Columbia Basin. This is not supported at this time by
the fog product but will bear watching. Meanwhile for the first
time this week, visibility restrictions were developing over parts
of the Spokane/CdA area and suspect the trend will be for
increasing fog. For tonight, the second front will receive a
little boost in strength as a shortwave trough currently around
127w moves inland. We don`t think this will produce much weather
other than a chance of light precipitation again near the
Cascades. The increased cloud cover should minimize the fog
potential overnight.

For Thursday and Thursday night...the ridge looks like it could
rebound again as pressure falls develop around 140w. The
interesting thing from this development is it takes the residual
moisture from tonight`s front and pivots it from a north-south
orientation to more of an east-west orientation as a warm front
pushes northward. The isentropic ascent from this front begins to
steepen and precipitation chances will increase steadily from
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Light to moderate
precipitation is expected to develop with a few locations near the
Cascades nearing up to half an inch. The remainder of the area
will see amounts generally ranging from .10-.25 inches. While most
of this will fall as rain with snow rising to 5500 feet near the
Canadian Border and to 7000 feet or higher south of I-90, there
is the possibility of a messy mix across the upper Methow Valley.
Model BUFR soundings are showing a temperature right around
freezing near the ground and extending up to nearly 5000 feet
through much of the event. Strangely the NAM BUFR is showing an
initial precip type of rain by midday Thursday followed by snow.
Given the warm air advection associated with the warm front and
little potential for wet bulb cooling, this seems unlikely.
However this will need to be watched especially if the
precipitation begins earlier and falls into an initially cooler
air mass. fx

Friday through Tuesday...An active weather pattern is expected
during the extended period. A cold front will track across the
Inland NW Friday into Friday night followed by cool and showery
weather on Saturday as the upper trough axis swings through. Snow
levels early on Friday start off at 6000-7000 feet before lowering
to 3000-4000 feet Saturday morning behind the cold front. Behind
the cold front mid level westerly flow will favor showers most
prevalent near the Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle with snow
showers expected over the passes. Given the time of year (mid-
February) and its associated higher sun angle compared to late
December road temperatures may be too warm for significant travel
impacts over the passes but this will continue to be monitored.
Another warm front will pass through Sunday into Monday bringing
another round of precipitation with rising snow levels. Monday
has the potential to be very mild with the Inland NW in the warm
sector with breezy south- southwest winds as pressure gradients
tighten. The details differ after Monday with the timing of a cold
front with the ECMWF showing Monday night and GFS Tuesday night.
Given these uncertainties no changes were made to the Tuesday
forecast which favors the slower solution. This front may bring
in breezy to windy conditions once it passes. JW


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Fog and stratus was observed for most of the mountain
valleys this morning and along the Spokane/Columbia
rivers...closer to water sources. The inversion will remain strong
again tonight and fog/stratus will likely form in those areas
again tonight. However the strong ridge of high pressure that has
been over the region will shift east and bend slightly overnight.
This will allow upper level clouds to move into the region
overnight as well...and this may mitigate somewhat the strong
radiational cooling. In addition the surface flow will gradually
come around to southerly through the evening and this should pile
up the moisture for the northern valleys. With the exception of
the eastern basin and the Palouse at least some fog and stratus
will be possible for the TAF sites. So KLWS/KPUW can expect VFR
conditions through 00z. At the other TAF sites current VFR
conditions will likely drop down to MVFR cigs/vsby between 12-18z
then bounce back to VFR with a thickening but high cloud deck.
Tobin



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        46  34  46  38  48  36 /   0   0  30  40  60  70
Coeur d`Alene  46  34  46  37  47  37 /   0   0  20  50  60  80
Pullman        51  39  51  40  52  38 /   0   0  10  20  50  60
Lewiston       55  40  56  42  57  42 /   0   0   0  10  40  50
Colville       42  32  41  35  42  36 /   0  10  50  70  60  70
Sandpoint      42  33  43  35  44  34 /   0  10  30  70  60  90
Kellogg        43  35  44  38  44  36 /   0   0  20  50  50  90
Moses Lake     47  34  47  38  48  37 /   0   0  30  30  50  40
Wenatchee      42  33  40  35  45  35 /   0   0  50  70  50  30
Omak           36  31  37  34  38  34 /   0   0  50  70  50  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 101103
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
303 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will persist into Wednesday, with dry and
mild conditions. A more progressive and unsettled pattern will
return late this week, bringing a chance of light rain Thursday in
the Cascades, then throughout the region Friday into the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...The unusually strong ridge which has
blanketed the Inland Northwest for the past several days will
finally begin to weaken as minor upper level disturbances track
through the region. Looking at the latest satellite loops, the
first disturbance is currently tracking through the eastern third
of Washington right now, with another one moving into western
Washington. Based on GOES BUFR sounding and radar data, both are
rather minor features. The easternmost feature only contains high
clouds, while the western one is producing a few sprinkles near
the coast. This second feature is expected to move into the
Cascades later today and could produce some very light
precipitation mainly near the crest. Otherwise the main impact of
these systems will be an increased cloud trend compared to the
last couple days as well as slightly cooler temperatures.
Nonetheless, readings will still remain warmer than normal for
this time of year with highs generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s
for most valley locations. The exception once again will occur
over the far NW part of the forecast area, namely the Methow
Valley and Okanogan Valley and Highlands due to a very stubborn
cold pool near the ground. Looks like this could stick around
until we get a more robust front through the area, which won`t
likely be today. The other problem for today will be the potential
for fog. We suspect the coverage should be greater than we have
seen for the past couple days as the wind fields are generally
lighter with higher humidity levels. Hard to tell where most of it
will form, however the HRRR suggests most of it will occur over
the western Columbia Basin. This is not supported at this time by
the fog product but will bear watching. Meanwhile for the first
time this week, visibility restrictions were developing over parts
of the Spokane/CdA area and suspect the trend will be for
increasing fog. For tonight, the second front will receive a
little boost in strength as a shortwave trough currently around
127w moves inland. We don`t think this will produce much weather
other than a chance of light precipitation again near the
Cascades. The increased cloud cover should minimize the fog
potential overnight.

For Thursday and Thursday night...the ridge looks like it could
rebound again as pressure falls develop around 140w. The
interesting thing from this development is it takes the residual
moisture from tonight`s front and pivots it from a north-south
orientation to more of an east-west orientation as a warm front
pushes northward. The isentropic ascent from this front begins to
steepen and precipitation chances will increase steadily from
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Light to moderate
precipitation is expected to develop with a few locations near the
Cascades nearing up to half an inch. The remainder of the area
will see amounts generally ranging from .10-.25 inches. While most
of this will fall as rain with snow rising to 5500 feet near the
Canadian Border and to 7000 feet or higher south of I-90, there
is the possibility of a messy mix across the upper Methow Valley.
Model BUFR soundings are showing a temperature right around
freezing near the ground and extending up to nearly 5000 feet
through much of the event. Strangely the NAM BUFR is showing an
initial precip type of rain by midday Thursday followed by snow.
Given the warm air advection associated with the warm front and
little potential for wet bulb cooling, this seems unlikely.
However this will need to be watched especially if the
precipitation begins earlier and falls into an initially cooler
air mass. fx

Friday through Tuesday...An active weather pattern is expected
during the extended period. A cold front will track across the
Inland NW Friday into Friday night followed by cool and showery
weather on Saturday as the upper trough axis swings through. Snow
levels early on Friday start off at 6000-7000 feet before lowering
to 3000-4000 feet Saturday morning behind the cold front. Behind
the cold front mid level westerly flow will favor showers most
prevalent near the Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle with snow
showers expected over the passes. Given the time of year (mid-
February) and its associated higher sun angle compared to late
December road temperatures may be too warm for significant travel
impacts over the passes but this will continue to be monitored.
Another warm front will pass through Sunday into Monday bringing
another round of precipitation with rising snow levels. Monday
has the potential to be very mild with the Inland NW in the warm
sector with breezy south- southwest winds as pressure gradients
tighten. The details differ after Monday with the timing of a cold
front with the ECMWF showing Monday night and GFS Tuesday night.
Given these uncertainties no changes were made to the Tuesday
forecast which favors the slower solution. This front may bring
in breezy to windy conditions once it passes. JW


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Fog and stratus was observed for most of the mountain
valleys this morning and along the Spokane/Columbia
rivers...closer to water sources. The inversion will remain strong
again tonight and fog/stratus will likely form in those areas
again tonight. However the strong ridge of high pressure that has
been over the region will shift east and bend slightly overnight.
This will allow upper level clouds to move into the region
overnight as well...and this may mitigate somewhat the strong
radiational cooling. In addition the surface flow will gradually
come around to southerly through the evening and this should pile
up the moisture for the northern valleys. With the exception of
the eastern basin and the Palouse at least some fog and stratus
will be possible for the TAF sites. So KLWS/KPUW can expect VFR
conditions through 00z. At the other TAF sites current VFR
conditions will likely drop down to MVFR cigs/vsby between 12-18z
then bounce back to VFR with a thickening but high cloud deck.
Tobin



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        46  34  46  38  48  36 /   0   0  30  40  60  70
Coeur d`Alene  46  34  46  37  47  37 /   0   0  20  50  60  80
Pullman        51  39  51  40  52  38 /   0   0  10  20  50  60
Lewiston       55  40  56  42  57  42 /   0   0   0  10  40  50
Colville       42  32  41  35  42  36 /   0  10  50  70  60  70
Sandpoint      42  33  43  35  44  34 /   0  10  30  70  60  90
Kellogg        43  35  44  38  44  36 /   0   0  20  50  50  90
Moses Lake     47  34  47  38  48  37 /   0   0  30  30  50  40
Wenatchee      42  33  40  35  45  35 /   0   0  50  70  50  30
Omak           36  31  37  34  38  34 /   0   0  50  70  50  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.

&&

$$



000
FXUS66 KPQR 101047
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
247 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AIR MASS TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRI.
WEAK FRONTS OFFSHORE WILL BRUSH THE NW TODAY AND THU...WITH VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY INLAND. THAT CHANGES BY FRI...AS FIRST
IN A SERIES OF FRONTS PUSH INTO THE PAC NW. SHOWERY ON SATURDAY...BUT
MORE RAIN ARRIVES ON SUNDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY AND THU.
THAT MEANS MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD OVER THE REGION. AT
SAME TIME...SEVERAL WEAKENING FRONTS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
WHILE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...WILL SEE
CONSIDERABLY MORE IN WAY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
THU.

REMAINS OF THE FIRST FRONT SITS JUST OFFSHORE THIS AM...AND WILL MOVE
INLAND TODAY. NOT MUCH IN WAY OF RAIN...BUT SHOULD SEE SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN ON THE COAST WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FURTHER
INLAND...SHOULD JUST SEE OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES OR POSSIBLY A BRIEF
LIGHT SHOWER. OVERALL...DRY INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT.  MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT THIS WEAK BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK TO THE N AS A WARM
FRONT ON THU. AGAIN...NOT A LOT OF PRECIPITATION BUT ENOUGH FOR
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND INTO SW WASHINGTON.

WITH LACK OF ANY AIR MASS CHANGE...AND WEAK WINDS OVER REGION... THE
MILD TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE. NORMALS HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF FEB
ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S. SO...WILL KEEP FORECAST HIGHS FOR
NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS N ON THU...AS THIS WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
REMAINS OVER NW OREGON. THE MORE SUNSHINE...BETTER CHANCE OF REACHING
60 OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON THU. OTHERWISE...IF FRONT IS SLOWER MOVING
AND KEEPS CLOUDS OVER REGION LONGER...THU HIGH MAY ONLY GET INTO MID
50S. WILL TREND THU HIGHS TO FORMER IDEA.

FOR PAST MANY DAYS...MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING FIRST DECENT SHOT OF
RAIN WOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION ON FRI AS A MODERATELY STRONG COLD
FRONT ARRIVES. NO CHANGES TO THAT THOUGHT TRAIN. WILL KEEP RAIN IN
FORECAST ON FRI...WITH 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OVER COAST RANGE AND S WASH
CASCADES...WITH 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH ELSEWHERE.  SNOW LEVELS REMAIN
ABOVE 8000 FT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON...THEN WILL LOWER TO 3500 TO 4000
FT BY LATE FRI NIGHT.      ROCKEY.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
COOLER ON SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS
SITTING AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FEET ON SAT...WITH SOME NEW SNOW EXPECTED
OVER THE CASCADES. NOT A LOT...BUT COULD SEE 3 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW AT THE PASSES AND ABOVE. RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE
PAC...WITH ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVING ON SUN. HAVE INCREASES PROB OF RAIN
ON SUNDAY. BRIEF BREAK ON MON...BUT LOOKS WET AFTERWARDS AS YET
ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES ON TUE. REST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS RATHER CLOUDY
AND WET...WITH SNOW LEVELS BOUNCING FROM 3500 TO 5500 FT.   ROCKEY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR MOST AREAS ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG UNDER THE HIGH OVERCAST. AT THIS TIME...NOTHING IS AT
THE TAF TERMINALS AND KUAO IS THE ONLY SITE SHOWING ANY VISIBILITY
REDUCTION. KEUG BRIEFLY FOGGED IN EARLIER BUT INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE SCOURED IT OUT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDS THROUGH 11/12Z. A WEAK FRONT BRUSHES THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY BRING HIGHER END MVFR CIGS TO THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. NOT MUCH IMPACT EXPECTED INLAND ASIDE FROM VERY LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE 16Z-03Z AS CONDS LIKELY REMAIN VFR.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR NEXT 24 HRS. MAY GET SOME PERIODS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATION OVER THE CASCADES AS WEAK RAIN BANDS
CROSS THE AREA 20Z-03Z. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...A DECAYING FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL WITH REGARD TO THE WIND STRENGTH. WIND
SPEEDS ARE CURRENTLY BEING OVERDONE BY MODELS BY A FEW KTS. ALSO
SHORTENED THE TIME OF THE SCA FOR WINDS BY SEVERAL HOURS BUT EVEN
WITH THE WEAKER WINDS, IT APPEARS THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH WIND
TO JUSTIFY THE SCA FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF FREQUENT 21-25 KT
GUSTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA DURING THE INITIAL EVENT
BUT BECOME SOMEWHAT STEEP REACHING 7-9 FT AT 11-13 SEC.

THE LARGE AND COMPLEX PARENT LOW CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WELL OFFSHORE WILL SWING THE NEXT FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS
THURSDAY AND ANOTHER ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THE THURSDAY SYSTEM
IS TRENDING WEAKER OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS BUT DOES STILL APPEAR TO
BE STRONGER THEN THE IMPENDING QUESTIONABLE FRONT. SUNDAY`S WOULD
BE THE STRONGEST ASSUMING MODELS SETTLE IN ON A COMMON SOLUTION.

REGARDLESS...THE SET OF EMBEDDED LOWS INSIDE THE PARENT LOW IS
GENERATING NUMEROUS SETS OF SWELL TRAINS. THE LEADING EDGE OF
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL REACH THE OUTER WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL POSSIBLY STAY 10-15 FEET AND BECOME CONFUSED AT
TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. DECIDED TO ONLY ISSUE A SCA FOR
SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY DAYLIGHT WITH CONFIDENCE BECOMING LIMITED
THEREAFTER GIVEN THE TIME RANGE. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

WA...NONE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR T0DAY ON ALL WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON ALL WATERS
 TODAY THROUGH FRI.

&&



$$

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THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




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