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000
FXUS66 KOTX 291208
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
507 AM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The storm track will retreat north into Canada today and Monday
producing mild weather for the Inland Northwest. A vigorous
spring storm system will bring another chance for showers and
strong winds to our region on Tuesday. Wind gusts exceeding 40 mph
will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Wednesday through
next weekend looks to be showery with temperatures near normal.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG COLD FRONT TO DELIVER WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INLAND
NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

Today through Monday: A flat upper level ridge at 500mb will
reside over the Pacific Northwest today into Monday. Vancouver
Island and the southern coast of British Columbia will experience
periods of rain during the next couple of days as a plume of
subtropical moisture is directed into southwestern Canada. Small
chances for light rain will extend as far south as the mountains
of far north central and northeast Washington today and tonight,
but the majority of our forecast area should be dry under bands of
mid and high level clouds. There will be much less wind today and
Monday with the typical afternoon increase in southwest winds,
generally in the 10 to 15 mph range. /GKoch

Tuesday: A vigorous cold front will seep across the region
Tuesday morning with the upper level trough of lower pressure
moving in for the afternoon. Models are in good agreement with a
deepening surface low scooting across southern BC into southern
Alberta through the day on Tuesday. Models all show the surface
low bottoming out at around 992 mbs along the eastern Divide in
southern Alberta by the afternoon hours. This will set up a
strong surface gradient, which will coincide with a favorable
time of day for mixing potential. The surface gradient looks to be
a little bit stronger compared to this past Saturday`s wind event
and there were spotty locations with sustained wind speeds of
30-35 mph. This front will have the potential for similar wind
speeds, but on a more widespread basis. This will include anywhere
from the Wenatchee Area, across the basin and over into the
exposed areas of the southern to central ID Panhandle. Winds up at
850 mbs look to peak at around 35-40 kts, which would translate to
a gust potential somewhere in the range of up to 40-45 mph. There
is a good possibility that a Wind Advisory will be needed for
Tuesday afternoon, but is still a bit early for a highlight at
this time this far out in the forecast period.

A 500 mb cold pool aloft will also result in the atmosphere
destabilizing through the afternoon. Showers will develop out
ahead of the cold front through the morning on Tuesday with more
showers likely developing in the conditionally unstable atmosphere
through the afternoon hours. Best chances for showers are expected
across the eastern half of the forecast area. There will also be a
chance for thunderstorms in the afternoon across the Okanogan
Highlands over into the Northern Panhandle.

Tuesday night through Sunday: A cold upper level trough of lower
pressure will hang around through Thursday. The cold front on
Tuesday will usher in colder temperatures with temperatures
closer to or slightly below normal. The cold upper level trough
will result in afternoon showers with the potential for some soft
hail or graupel. Shortwave ridging of higher pressure moves in
Thursday night, but another upper level trough of lower pressure
looks to drop down into the region for Friday through the
weekend. This will keep temperatures slightly below normal with
more convective showers expected, especially during the afternoon.
/SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A couple of weak upper level disturbances will over-top
our flat upper level ridge today and tonight. Bands of mid and
high level clouds with ceilings at or above 12 thousand feet are
expected. Some light rain/high elevation snow will be possible
over the mountains along the Canadian border, but is not expected
to impact airports in the region. /GKoch


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        59  41  63  42  54  33 /  10  10   0  10  60  20
Coeur d`Alene  58  39  64  40  53  32 /  10  10   0  10  70  40
Pullman        60  40  65  41  51  35 /   0   0   0  20  60  20
Lewiston       66  43  70  46  56  37 /   0   0   0  20  50  20
Colville       60  41  65  40  56  31 /  10  10   0  10  70  30
Sandpoint      56  38  59  38  51  33 /  10  10   0  10  80  50
Kellogg        54  39  63  40  47  33 /  10  10   0  30  80  50
Moses Lake     67  40  69  43  59  34 /  10   0   0   0  20  10
Wenatchee      65  44  68  44  58  38 /  10   0   0  10  20  10
Omak           64  39  66  40  60  32 /  10  10   0  10  40  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 291208
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
507 AM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The storm track will retreat north into Canada today and Monday
producing mild weather for the Inland Northwest. A vigorous
spring storm system will bring another chance for showers and
strong winds to our region on Tuesday. Wind gusts exceeding 40 mph
will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Wednesday through
next weekend looks to be showery with temperatures near normal.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG COLD FRONT TO DELIVER WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INLAND
NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

Today through Monday: A flat upper level ridge at 500mb will
reside over the Pacific Northwest today into Monday. Vancouver
Island and the southern coast of British Columbia will experience
periods of rain during the next couple of days as a plume of
subtropical moisture is directed into southwestern Canada. Small
chances for light rain will extend as far south as the mountains
of far north central and northeast Washington today and tonight,
but the majority of our forecast area should be dry under bands of
mid and high level clouds. There will be much less wind today and
Monday with the typical afternoon increase in southwest winds,
generally in the 10 to 15 mph range. /GKoch

Tuesday: A vigorous cold front will seep across the region
Tuesday morning with the upper level trough of lower pressure
moving in for the afternoon. Models are in good agreement with a
deepening surface low scooting across southern BC into southern
Alberta through the day on Tuesday. Models all show the surface
low bottoming out at around 992 mbs along the eastern Divide in
southern Alberta by the afternoon hours. This will set up a
strong surface gradient, which will coincide with a favorable
time of day for mixing potential. The surface gradient looks to be
a little bit stronger compared to this past Saturday`s wind event
and there were spotty locations with sustained wind speeds of
30-35 mph. This front will have the potential for similar wind
speeds, but on a more widespread basis. This will include anywhere
from the Wenatchee Area, across the basin and over into the
exposed areas of the southern to central ID Panhandle. Winds up at
850 mbs look to peak at around 35-40 kts, which would translate to
a gust potential somewhere in the range of up to 40-45 mph. There
is a good possibility that a Wind Advisory will be needed for
Tuesday afternoon, but is still a bit early for a highlight at
this time this far out in the forecast period.

A 500 mb cold pool aloft will also result in the atmosphere
destabilizing through the afternoon. Showers will develop out
ahead of the cold front through the morning on Tuesday with more
showers likely developing in the conditionally unstable atmosphere
through the afternoon hours. Best chances for showers are expected
across the eastern half of the forecast area. There will also be a
chance for thunderstorms in the afternoon across the Okanogan
Highlands over into the Northern Panhandle.

Tuesday night through Sunday: A cold upper level trough of lower
pressure will hang around through Thursday. The cold front on
Tuesday will usher in colder temperatures with temperatures
closer to or slightly below normal. The cold upper level trough
will result in afternoon showers with the potential for some soft
hail or graupel. Shortwave ridging of higher pressure moves in
Thursday night, but another upper level trough of lower pressure
looks to drop down into the region for Friday through the
weekend. This will keep temperatures slightly below normal with
more convective showers expected, especially during the afternoon.
/SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A couple of weak upper level disturbances will over-top
our flat upper level ridge today and tonight. Bands of mid and
high level clouds with ceilings at or above 12 thousand feet are
expected. Some light rain/high elevation snow will be possible
over the mountains along the Canadian border, but is not expected
to impact airports in the region. /GKoch


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        59  41  63  42  54  33 /  10  10   0  10  60  20
Coeur d`Alene  58  39  64  40  53  32 /  10  10   0  10  70  40
Pullman        60  40  65  41  51  35 /   0   0   0  20  60  20
Lewiston       66  43  70  46  56  37 /   0   0   0  20  50  20
Colville       60  41  65  40  56  31 /  10  10   0  10  70  30
Sandpoint      56  38  59  38  51  33 /  10  10   0  10  80  50
Kellogg        54  39  63  40  47  33 /  10  10   0  30  80  50
Moses Lake     67  40  69  43  59  34 /  10   0   0   0  20  10
Wenatchee      65  44  68  44  58  38 /  10   0   0  10  20  10
Omak           64  39  66  40  60  32 /  10  10   0  10  40  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 291207
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
507 AM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The storm track will retreat north into Canada today and Monday
producing mild weather to the Inland Northwest. A vigorous spring
storm system will bring another chance for showers and strong
winds to our region on Tuesday. Wind gusts exceeding 40 mph will
be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Wednesday through next
weekend looks to be showery with temperatures near normal.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG COLD FRONT TO DELIVER WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INLAND
NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

Today through Monday: A flat upper level ridge at 500mb will
reside over the Pacific Northwest today into Monday. Vancouver
Island and the southern coast of British Columbia will experience
periods of rain during the next couple of days as a plume of
subtropical moisture is directed into southwestern Canada. Small
chances for light rain will extend as far south as the mountains
of far north central and northeast Washington today and tonight,
but the majority of our forecast area should be dry under bands of
mid and high level clouds. There will be much less wind today and
Monday with the typical afternoon increase in southwest winds,
generally in the 10 to 15 mph range. /GKoch

Tuesday: A vigorous cold front will seep across the region
Tuesday morning with the upper level trough of lower pressure
moving in for the afternoon. Models are in good agreement with a
deepening surface low scooting across southern BC into southern
Alberta through the day on Tuesday. Models all show the surface
low bottoming out at around 992 mbs along the eastern Divide in
southern Alberta by the afternoon hours. This will set up a
strong surface gradient, which will coincide with a favorable
time of day for mixing potential. The surface gradient looks to be
a little bit stronger compared to this past Saturday`s wind event
and there were spotty locations with sustained wind speeds of
30-35 mph. This front will have the potential for similar wind
speeds, but on a more widespread basis. This will include anywhere
from the Wenatchee Area, across the basin and over into the
exposed areas of the southern to central ID Panhandle. Winds up at
850 mbs look to peak at around 35-40 kts, which would translate to
a gust potential somewhere in the range of up to 40-45 mph. There
is a good possibility that a Wind Advisory will be needed for
Tuesday afternoon, but is still a bit early for a highlight at
this time this far out in the forecast period.

A 500 mb cold pool aloft will also result in the atmosphere
destabilizing through the afternoon. Showers will develop out
ahead of the cold front through the morning on Tuesday with more
showers likely developing in the conditionally unstable atmosphere
through the afternoon hours. Best chances for showers are expected
across the eastern half of the forecast area. There will also be a
chance for thunderstorms in the afternoon across the Okanogan
Highlands over into the Northern Panhandle.

Tuesday night through Sunday: A cold upper level trough of lower
pressure will hang around through Thursday. The cold front on
Tuesday will usher in colder temperatures with temperatures
closer to or slightly below normal. The cold upper level trough
will result in afternoon showers with the potential for some soft
hail or graupel. Shortwave ridging of higher pressure moves in
Thursday night, but another upper level trough of lower pressure
looks to drop down into the region for Friday through the
weekend. This will keep temperatures slightly below normal with
more convective showers expected, especially during the afternoon.
/SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A couple of weak upper level disturbances will over-top
our flat upper level ridge today and tonight. Bands of mid and
high level clouds with ceilings at or above 12 thousand feet are
expected. Some light rain/high elevation snow will be possible
over the mountains along the Canadian border, but is not expected
to impact airports in the region. /GKoch


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        59  41  63  42  54  33 /  10  10   0  10  60  20
Coeur d`Alene  58  39  64  40  53  32 /  10  10   0  10  70  40
Pullman        60  40  65  41  51  35 /   0   0   0  20  60  20
Lewiston       66  43  70  46  56  37 /   0   0   0  20  50  20
Colville       60  41  65  40  56  31 /  10  10   0  10  70  30
Sandpoint      56  38  59  38  51  33 /  10  10   0  10  80  50
Kellogg        54  39  63  40  47  33 /  10  10   0  30  80  50
Moses Lake     67  40  69  43  59  34 /  10   0   0   0  20  10
Wenatchee      65  44  68  44  58  38 /  10   0   0  10  20  10
Omak           64  39  66  40  60  32 /  10  10   0  10  40  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 291207
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
507 AM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The storm track will retreat north into Canada today and Monday
producing mild weather to the Inland Northwest. A vigorous spring
storm system will bring another chance for showers and strong
winds to our region on Tuesday. Wind gusts exceeding 40 mph will
be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Wednesday through next
weekend looks to be showery with temperatures near normal.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG COLD FRONT TO DELIVER WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INLAND
NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

Today through Monday: A flat upper level ridge at 500mb will
reside over the Pacific Northwest today into Monday. Vancouver
Island and the southern coast of British Columbia will experience
periods of rain during the next couple of days as a plume of
subtropical moisture is directed into southwestern Canada. Small
chances for light rain will extend as far south as the mountains
of far north central and northeast Washington today and tonight,
but the majority of our forecast area should be dry under bands of
mid and high level clouds. There will be much less wind today and
Monday with the typical afternoon increase in southwest winds,
generally in the 10 to 15 mph range. /GKoch

Tuesday: A vigorous cold front will seep across the region
Tuesday morning with the upper level trough of lower pressure
moving in for the afternoon. Models are in good agreement with a
deepening surface low scooting across southern BC into southern
Alberta through the day on Tuesday. Models all show the surface
low bottoming out at around 992 mbs along the eastern Divide in
southern Alberta by the afternoon hours. This will set up a
strong surface gradient, which will coincide with a favorable
time of day for mixing potential. The surface gradient looks to be
a little bit stronger compared to this past Saturday`s wind event
and there were spotty locations with sustained wind speeds of
30-35 mph. This front will have the potential for similar wind
speeds, but on a more widespread basis. This will include anywhere
from the Wenatchee Area, across the basin and over into the
exposed areas of the southern to central ID Panhandle. Winds up at
850 mbs look to peak at around 35-40 kts, which would translate to
a gust potential somewhere in the range of up to 40-45 mph. There
is a good possibility that a Wind Advisory will be needed for
Tuesday afternoon, but is still a bit early for a highlight at
this time this far out in the forecast period.

A 500 mb cold pool aloft will also result in the atmosphere
destabilizing through the afternoon. Showers will develop out
ahead of the cold front through the morning on Tuesday with more
showers likely developing in the conditionally unstable atmosphere
through the afternoon hours. Best chances for showers are expected
across the eastern half of the forecast area. There will also be a
chance for thunderstorms in the afternoon across the Okanogan
Highlands over into the Northern Panhandle.

Tuesday night through Sunday: A cold upper level trough of lower
pressure will hang around through Thursday. The cold front on
Tuesday will usher in colder temperatures with temperatures
closer to or slightly below normal. The cold upper level trough
will result in afternoon showers with the potential for some soft
hail or graupel. Shortwave ridging of higher pressure moves in
Thursday night, but another upper level trough of lower pressure
looks to drop down into the region for Friday through the
weekend. This will keep temperatures slightly below normal with
more convective showers expected, especially during the afternoon.
/SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A couple of weak upper level disturbances will over-top
our flat upper level ridge today and tonight. Bands of mid and
high level clouds with ceilings at or above 12 thousand feet are
expected. Some light rain/high elevation snow will be possible
over the mountains along the Canadian border, but is not expected
to impact airports in the region. /GKoch


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        59  41  63  42  54  33 /  10  10   0  10  60  20
Coeur d`Alene  58  39  64  40  53  32 /  10  10   0  10  70  40
Pullman        60  40  65  41  51  35 /   0   0   0  20  60  20
Lewiston       66  43  70  46  56  37 /   0   0   0  20  50  20
Colville       60  41  65  40  56  31 /  10  10   0  10  70  30
Sandpoint      56  38  59  38  51  33 /  10  10   0  10  80  50
Kellogg        54  39  63  40  47  33 /  10  10   0  30  80  50
Moses Lake     67  40  69  43  59  34 /  10   0   0   0  20  10
Wenatchee      65  44  68  44  58  38 /  10   0   0  10  20  10
Omak           64  39  66  40  60  32 /  10  10   0  10  40  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 291002
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
302 AM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MON AS FLAT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION LATE MONDAY...USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE AIR MASS...ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... A LITTLE BIT OF VERY LIGHT
RAIN ON RADAR TONIGHT POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND
NORTH OREGON COASTS...BUT NOT SURE MUCH IF ANY RAIN IS ACTUALLY
REACHING THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER
THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A NEAR REPEAT MONDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA ON
MON...FINALLY DRIVING A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND
ONSHORE AS A COLD FRONT. EXPECT RAIN TO PUSH ONTO THE COAST MON
EVENING...THEN INLAND OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
SLIGHTLY LATER WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON TUE...USHERING IN A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR MASS.
THE FCST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
POSTFRONTAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE. FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AND FORCING WITH THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT AND A BIT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE
TOO MUCH OF A CAP TO REALLY PRODUCE ANY THUNDER SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT
FOR NOW. HOWEVER IT MAY BE ONE OF THOSE DAYS WITH PERIODIC HEAVY
SHOWERS...SOME CONTAINING SMALL HAIL. THE COLDER AIR SHOULD ALSO DROP
SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO CASCADE PASSES WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY FALL. BOWEN/PYLE

.LONG TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. BEHIND
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON TUE...FCST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE WED...BRINGING CONTINUED SHOWERS
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW INTO THU MORNING. THERE IS THEN A SHORTWAVE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS MODELED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THU. THIS MAY
END UP PROVIDING A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER THU
INTO FRI BEFORE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE COAST ON FRI
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FCST CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOWER TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK. FRI COULD END UP BEING MOSTLY DRY...BUT THE FCST MODELS
SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARD SPEEDING UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEP
TROUGH...WHICH WOULD BRING MORE RAIN ONSHORE FRI. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG FROM FORMING AT
INLAND SITES. LIGHT OFF-SHORE WINDS ARE HELPING KEEP THE COAST
CLEAR AS WELL. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BEING SEEN ON RADAR
THAT ARE APPROACHING KAST. THOUGHT IS THAT THESE WILL FIZZLE OUT
BEFORE REACHING KAST...BUT A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO HAVE IN TAF...THOUGH THESE WILL
PROBABLY BRING IN A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z MON.
-MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS IS
LIKELY GENERATING LOW-END SMALL CRAFT WINDS IN THIS AREA.
SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS FROM A PASS AROUND 1000 PM IS SHOWING
15-20 KT WINDS CLIPPING THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. THIS GRADIENT
SHOULD BE RELAXING AND WINDS SHOULD DECREASE BACK BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SEAS HAVE BEEN HOLDING AROUND 8 FT THIS MORNING...BUT LARGER SWELL
GENERATED FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL START MOVING IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OBSERVATIONS OUT
AT BUOY 5 HAVE SUPPORTED SWELL COMING IN ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST
AROUND 10 FT. SEAS SHOULD HOVER AROUND 9 TO 10 FT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS PERIOD
ACROSS THE OUTER AND INNER WATERS.

SUNDAY EVENING...WINDS SHOULD START TO PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY. WINDS SHOULD RAMP UP TO 20
TO 25 KTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTING TO 30 KTS...AND SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO 10 TO 12 FT MONDAY NIGHT AND STAY UP THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. -MCCOY


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS
     MORNING TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 3 AM PDT
     EARLY THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 11 AM
     THIS MORNING TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 291002
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
302 AM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MON AS FLAT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION LATE MONDAY...USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE AIR MASS...ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... A LITTLE BIT OF VERY LIGHT
RAIN ON RADAR TONIGHT POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND
NORTH OREGON COASTS...BUT NOT SURE MUCH IF ANY RAIN IS ACTUALLY
REACHING THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER
THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A NEAR REPEAT MONDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA ON
MON...FINALLY DRIVING A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND
ONSHORE AS A COLD FRONT. EXPECT RAIN TO PUSH ONTO THE COAST MON
EVENING...THEN INLAND OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
SLIGHTLY LATER WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON TUE...USHERING IN A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR MASS.
THE FCST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
POSTFRONTAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE. FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AND FORCING WITH THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT AND A BIT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE
TOO MUCH OF A CAP TO REALLY PRODUCE ANY THUNDER SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT
FOR NOW. HOWEVER IT MAY BE ONE OF THOSE DAYS WITH PERIODIC HEAVY
SHOWERS...SOME CONTAINING SMALL HAIL. THE COLDER AIR SHOULD ALSO DROP
SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO CASCADE PASSES WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY FALL. BOWEN/PYLE

.LONG TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. BEHIND
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON TUE...FCST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE WED...BRINGING CONTINUED SHOWERS
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW INTO THU MORNING. THERE IS THEN A SHORTWAVE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS MODELED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THU. THIS MAY
END UP PROVIDING A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER THU
INTO FRI BEFORE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE COAST ON FRI
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FCST CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOWER TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK. FRI COULD END UP BEING MOSTLY DRY...BUT THE FCST MODELS
SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARD SPEEDING UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEP
TROUGH...WHICH WOULD BRING MORE RAIN ONSHORE FRI. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG FROM FORMING AT
INLAND SITES. LIGHT OFF-SHORE WINDS ARE HELPING KEEP THE COAST
CLEAR AS WELL. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BEING SEEN ON RADAR
THAT ARE APPROACHING KAST. THOUGHT IS THAT THESE WILL FIZZLE OUT
BEFORE REACHING KAST...BUT A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO HAVE IN TAF...THOUGH THESE WILL
PROBABLY BRING IN A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z MON.
-MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS IS
LIKELY GENERATING LOW-END SMALL CRAFT WINDS IN THIS AREA.
SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS FROM A PASS AROUND 1000 PM IS SHOWING
15-20 KT WINDS CLIPPING THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. THIS GRADIENT
SHOULD BE RELAXING AND WINDS SHOULD DECREASE BACK BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SEAS HAVE BEEN HOLDING AROUND 8 FT THIS MORNING...BUT LARGER SWELL
GENERATED FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL START MOVING IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OBSERVATIONS OUT
AT BUOY 5 HAVE SUPPORTED SWELL COMING IN ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST
AROUND 10 FT. SEAS SHOULD HOVER AROUND 9 TO 10 FT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS PERIOD
ACROSS THE OUTER AND INNER WATERS.

SUNDAY EVENING...WINDS SHOULD START TO PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY. WINDS SHOULD RAMP UP TO 20
TO 25 KTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTING TO 30 KTS...AND SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO 10 TO 12 FT MONDAY NIGHT AND STAY UP THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. -MCCOY


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS
     MORNING TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 3 AM PDT
     EARLY THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 11 AM
     THIS MORNING TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KSEW 290921
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
220 AM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AT
TIMES TO THE COAST AND NORTH INTERIOR THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH INLAND MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING RAIN TO THE REST OF THE AREA. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GIVE COOL AND SHOWERY
WEATHER TO THE AREA AND SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 3000 FEET IN
THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS CENTERED OVER
EASTERN WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE A SURFACE HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. IN THE MEAN
TIME...A SERIES OF WEAK WARM FRONTAL FEATURES ARE LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE AND COASTAL WATERS INTO VANCOUVER
ISLAND. THE WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS IS
GIVING SOME RAIN TO THE NORTH COAST...AND LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES
ARE OCCASIONALLY MAKING IT ONTO THE CENTRAL COAST AND INTO THE
INTERIOR FROM ABOUT WHIDBEY ISLAND NORTH AND WEST. SATELLITE AND
RADAR LOOPS HINT THAT THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY MAKE IT SOUTH AND
EAST AS FAR AS AN EVERETT TO SHELTON LINE THIS MORNING BEFORE IT
LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AROUND 40N 140W LATER THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE TO THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE SOUND AS A 1004 MB LOW TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY. THE WARM ADVECTION TO THE EAST OF THIS DEVELOPING
FEATURE WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF BUILDING THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT OVER THE
INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON...KEEPING CONDITIONS IN THE INTERIOR
FROM ABOUT EVERETT SOUTHWARD DRY. THE COAST AND THE CHEHALIS GAP
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES AS WARM
FRONTAL FEATURES CLIP THE COASTLINE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MILD FOR LATE MARCH WITH
HIGHS 55-65 AND LOWS AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

SHORT TERM MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT FINALLY
SURGING EASTWARD THROUGH THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON ON
MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN MONDAY EVENING WILL CHANGE TO SHOWERS LATE IN THE
NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST GRADIENTS
WILL GIVE ONSHORE FLOW AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AROUND THE
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWLANDS WILL
COOL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS FLOW ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE OLYMPICS. 500 MB HEIGHTS FALL OFF
TO 545 DAM MIDDAY TUESDAY AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -2C
TO -3C. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY FALL TO 3000-4000 FEET ON TUESDAY.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED AT SOME
POINT ON TUESDAY IN THE CENTRAL CASCADES WHERE THE PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT WHERE
THIS WOULD OCCUR AT THIS TIME. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GIVE COOL AND SHOWERY
WEATHER TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY MAY SEE SOME DECREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH SNOW LEVELS 2500 TO 3000 FEET IN
THE MOUNTAINS. ENSEMBLES ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE CHANGE
TO THE COOLER WEATHER PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...AS THE FLAT UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES SLOWLY EAST. A FRONT WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA SOUTHWEST INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST...ESPECIALLY AT MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SKY COVER ROUGHLY SCT-BKN040 BKN-060-075 AND HIGHER
BKN-OVC LAYERS ABOVE. AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTH PART OF THE AREA. ON THE WHOLE THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

KSEA...SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND 6-12 KT. BKN-OVC CEILING COULD LOWER
TO AROUND 5000 FT TONIGHT BUT REMAIN VFR.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH
MONDAY... WHILE A FRONT EXTENDS FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND INTO THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. THE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN
IS PRODUCING WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KT...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS GENERALLY
IN THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND WESTERN
WASHINGTON LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT GALE
WESTERLIES WILL OCCUR IN THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST
ENTRANCE STRAIT LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND A GALE WATCH IS
BEING ISSUED WITH THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST.

THERE WILL BE A WESTERLY SWELL OF 10 TO 12 FT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS AS WELL.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MCDONNAL


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR.
     GALE WATCH FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY CENTRAL STRAIT
      AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KSEW 290921
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
220 AM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AT
TIMES TO THE COAST AND NORTH INTERIOR THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH INLAND MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING RAIN TO THE REST OF THE AREA. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GIVE COOL AND SHOWERY
WEATHER TO THE AREA AND SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 3000 FEET IN
THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS CENTERED OVER
EASTERN WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE A SURFACE HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. IN THE MEAN
TIME...A SERIES OF WEAK WARM FRONTAL FEATURES ARE LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE AND COASTAL WATERS INTO VANCOUVER
ISLAND. THE WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS IS
GIVING SOME RAIN TO THE NORTH COAST...AND LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES
ARE OCCASIONALLY MAKING IT ONTO THE CENTRAL COAST AND INTO THE
INTERIOR FROM ABOUT WHIDBEY ISLAND NORTH AND WEST. SATELLITE AND
RADAR LOOPS HINT THAT THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY MAKE IT SOUTH AND
EAST AS FAR AS AN EVERETT TO SHELTON LINE THIS MORNING BEFORE IT
LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AROUND 40N 140W LATER THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE TO THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE SOUND AS A 1004 MB LOW TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY. THE WARM ADVECTION TO THE EAST OF THIS DEVELOPING
FEATURE WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF BUILDING THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT OVER THE
INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON...KEEPING CONDITIONS IN THE INTERIOR
FROM ABOUT EVERETT SOUTHWARD DRY. THE COAST AND THE CHEHALIS GAP
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES AS WARM
FRONTAL FEATURES CLIP THE COASTLINE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MILD FOR LATE MARCH WITH
HIGHS 55-65 AND LOWS AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

SHORT TERM MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT FINALLY
SURGING EASTWARD THROUGH THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON ON
MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN MONDAY EVENING WILL CHANGE TO SHOWERS LATE IN THE
NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST GRADIENTS
WILL GIVE ONSHORE FLOW AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AROUND THE
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWLANDS WILL
COOL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS FLOW ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE OLYMPICS. 500 MB HEIGHTS FALL OFF
TO 545 DAM MIDDAY TUESDAY AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -2C
TO -3C. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY FALL TO 3000-4000 FEET ON TUESDAY.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED AT SOME
POINT ON TUESDAY IN THE CENTRAL CASCADES WHERE THE PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT WHERE
THIS WOULD OCCUR AT THIS TIME. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GIVE COOL AND SHOWERY
WEATHER TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY MAY SEE SOME DECREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH SNOW LEVELS 2500 TO 3000 FEET IN
THE MOUNTAINS. ENSEMBLES ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE CHANGE
TO THE COOLER WEATHER PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...AS THE FLAT UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES SLOWLY EAST. A FRONT WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA SOUTHWEST INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST...ESPECIALLY AT MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SKY COVER ROUGHLY SCT-BKN040 BKN-060-075 AND HIGHER
BKN-OVC LAYERS ABOVE. AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTH PART OF THE AREA. ON THE WHOLE THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

KSEA...SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND 6-12 KT. BKN-OVC CEILING COULD LOWER
TO AROUND 5000 FT TONIGHT BUT REMAIN VFR.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH
MONDAY... WHILE A FRONT EXTENDS FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND INTO THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. THE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN
IS PRODUCING WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KT...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS GENERALLY
IN THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND WESTERN
WASHINGTON LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT GALE
WESTERLIES WILL OCCUR IN THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST
ENTRANCE STRAIT LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND A GALE WATCH IS
BEING ISSUED WITH THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST.

THERE WILL BE A WESTERLY SWELL OF 10 TO 12 FT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS AS WELL.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MCDONNAL


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR.
     GALE WATCH FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY CENTRAL STRAIT
      AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KSEW 290921
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
220 AM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AT
TIMES TO THE COAST AND NORTH INTERIOR THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH INLAND MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING RAIN TO THE REST OF THE AREA. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GIVE COOL AND SHOWERY
WEATHER TO THE AREA AND SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 3000 FEET IN
THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS CENTERED OVER
EASTERN WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE A SURFACE HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. IN THE MEAN
TIME...A SERIES OF WEAK WARM FRONTAL FEATURES ARE LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE AND COASTAL WATERS INTO VANCOUVER
ISLAND. THE WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS IS
GIVING SOME RAIN TO THE NORTH COAST...AND LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES
ARE OCCASIONALLY MAKING IT ONTO THE CENTRAL COAST AND INTO THE
INTERIOR FROM ABOUT WHIDBEY ISLAND NORTH AND WEST. SATELLITE AND
RADAR LOOPS HINT THAT THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY MAKE IT SOUTH AND
EAST AS FAR AS AN EVERETT TO SHELTON LINE THIS MORNING BEFORE IT
LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AROUND 40N 140W LATER THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE TO THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE SOUND AS A 1004 MB LOW TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY. THE WARM ADVECTION TO THE EAST OF THIS DEVELOPING
FEATURE WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF BUILDING THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT OVER THE
INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON...KEEPING CONDITIONS IN THE INTERIOR
FROM ABOUT EVERETT SOUTHWARD DRY. THE COAST AND THE CHEHALIS GAP
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES AS WARM
FRONTAL FEATURES CLIP THE COASTLINE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MILD FOR LATE MARCH WITH
HIGHS 55-65 AND LOWS AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

SHORT TERM MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT FINALLY
SURGING EASTWARD THROUGH THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON ON
MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN MONDAY EVENING WILL CHANGE TO SHOWERS LATE IN THE
NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST GRADIENTS
WILL GIVE ONSHORE FLOW AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AROUND THE
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWLANDS WILL
COOL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS FLOW ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE OLYMPICS. 500 MB HEIGHTS FALL OFF
TO 545 DAM MIDDAY TUESDAY AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -2C
TO -3C. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY FALL TO 3000-4000 FEET ON TUESDAY.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED AT SOME
POINT ON TUESDAY IN THE CENTRAL CASCADES WHERE THE PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT WHERE
THIS WOULD OCCUR AT THIS TIME. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GIVE COOL AND SHOWERY
WEATHER TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY MAY SEE SOME DECREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH SNOW LEVELS 2500 TO 3000 FEET IN
THE MOUNTAINS. ENSEMBLES ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE CHANGE
TO THE COOLER WEATHER PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...AS THE FLAT UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES SLOWLY EAST. A FRONT WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA SOUTHWEST INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST...ESPECIALLY AT MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SKY COVER ROUGHLY SCT-BKN040 BKN-060-075 AND HIGHER
BKN-OVC LAYERS ABOVE. AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTH PART OF THE AREA. ON THE WHOLE THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

KSEA...SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND 6-12 KT. BKN-OVC CEILING COULD LOWER
TO AROUND 5000 FT TONIGHT BUT REMAIN VFR.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH
MONDAY... WHILE A FRONT EXTENDS FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND INTO THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. THE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN
IS PRODUCING WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KT...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS GENERALLY
IN THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND WESTERN
WASHINGTON LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT GALE
WESTERLIES WILL OCCUR IN THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST
ENTRANCE STRAIT LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND A GALE WATCH IS
BEING ISSUED WITH THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST.

THERE WILL BE A WESTERLY SWELL OF 10 TO 12 FT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS AS WELL.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MCDONNAL


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR.
     GALE WATCH FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY CENTRAL STRAIT
      AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KSEW 290921
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
220 AM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AT
TIMES TO THE COAST AND NORTH INTERIOR THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH INLAND MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING RAIN TO THE REST OF THE AREA. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GIVE COOL AND SHOWERY
WEATHER TO THE AREA AND SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 3000 FEET IN
THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS CENTERED OVER
EASTERN WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE A SURFACE HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. IN THE MEAN
TIME...A SERIES OF WEAK WARM FRONTAL FEATURES ARE LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE AND COASTAL WATERS INTO VANCOUVER
ISLAND. THE WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS IS
GIVING SOME RAIN TO THE NORTH COAST...AND LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES
ARE OCCASIONALLY MAKING IT ONTO THE CENTRAL COAST AND INTO THE
INTERIOR FROM ABOUT WHIDBEY ISLAND NORTH AND WEST. SATELLITE AND
RADAR LOOPS HINT THAT THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY MAKE IT SOUTH AND
EAST AS FAR AS AN EVERETT TO SHELTON LINE THIS MORNING BEFORE IT
LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AROUND 40N 140W LATER THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE TO THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE SOUND AS A 1004 MB LOW TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY. THE WARM ADVECTION TO THE EAST OF THIS DEVELOPING
FEATURE WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF BUILDING THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT OVER THE
INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON...KEEPING CONDITIONS IN THE INTERIOR
FROM ABOUT EVERETT SOUTHWARD DRY. THE COAST AND THE CHEHALIS GAP
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES AS WARM
FRONTAL FEATURES CLIP THE COASTLINE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MILD FOR LATE MARCH WITH
HIGHS 55-65 AND LOWS AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

SHORT TERM MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT FINALLY
SURGING EASTWARD THROUGH THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON ON
MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN MONDAY EVENING WILL CHANGE TO SHOWERS LATE IN THE
NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST GRADIENTS
WILL GIVE ONSHORE FLOW AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AROUND THE
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWLANDS WILL
COOL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS FLOW ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE OLYMPICS. 500 MB HEIGHTS FALL OFF
TO 545 DAM MIDDAY TUESDAY AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -2C
TO -3C. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY FALL TO 3000-4000 FEET ON TUESDAY.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED AT SOME
POINT ON TUESDAY IN THE CENTRAL CASCADES WHERE THE PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT WHERE
THIS WOULD OCCUR AT THIS TIME. ALBRECHT

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GIVE COOL AND SHOWERY
WEATHER TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY MAY SEE SOME DECREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH SNOW LEVELS 2500 TO 3000 FEET IN
THE MOUNTAINS. ENSEMBLES ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE CHANGE
TO THE COOLER WEATHER PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON. ALBRECHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...AS THE FLAT UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES SLOWLY EAST. A FRONT WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA SOUTHWEST INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST...ESPECIALLY AT MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SKY COVER ROUGHLY SCT-BKN040 BKN-060-075 AND HIGHER
BKN-OVC LAYERS ABOVE. AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTH PART OF THE AREA. ON THE WHOLE THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

KSEA...SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND 6-12 KT. BKN-OVC CEILING COULD LOWER
TO AROUND 5000 FT TONIGHT BUT REMAIN VFR.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH
MONDAY... WHILE A FRONT EXTENDS FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND INTO THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. THE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN
IS PRODUCING WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KT...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS GENERALLY
IN THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND WESTERN
WASHINGTON LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT GALE
WESTERLIES WILL OCCUR IN THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST
ENTRANCE STRAIT LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND A GALE WATCH IS
BEING ISSUED WITH THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST.

THERE WILL BE A WESTERLY SWELL OF 10 TO 12 FT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS AS WELL.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MCDONNAL


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR.
     GALE WATCH FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY CENTRAL STRAIT
      AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KOTX 290917
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
217 AM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The storm track will retreat north into Canada today and Monday
producing mild weather to the Inland Northwest. A vigorous spring
storm system will bring another chance for showers and strong
winds to our region on Tuesday. Wind gusts exceeding 40 mph will
be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Wednesday through next
weekend looks to be showery with temperatures near normal.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG COLD FRONT TO DELIVER WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INLAND
NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

Today through Monday: A flat upper level ridge at 500mb will
reside over the Pacific Northwest today into Monday. Vancouver
Island and the southern coast of British Columbia will experience
periods of rain during the next couple of days as a plume of
subtropical moisture is directed into southwestern Canada. Small
chances for light rain will extend as far south as the mountains
of far north central and northeast Washington today and tonight,
but the majority of our forecast area should be dry under bands of
mid and high level clouds. There will be much less wind today and
Monday with the typical afternoon increase in southwest winds,
generally in the 10 to 15 mph range. /GKoch

Tuesday: A vigorous cold front will seep across the region
Tuesday morning with the upper level trough of lower pressure
moving in for the afternoon. Models are in good agreement with a
deepening surface low scooting across southern BC into southern
Alberta through the day on Tuesday. Models all show the surface
low bottoming out at around 992 mbs along the eastern Divide in
southern Alberta by the afternoon hours. This will set up a
strong surface gradient, which will coincide with a favorable
time of day for mixing potential. The surface gradient looks to be
a little bit stronger compared to this past Saturday`s wind event
and there were spotty locations with sustained wind speeds of
30-35 mph. This front will have the potential for similar wind
speeds, but on a more widespread basis. This will include anywhere
from the Wenatchee Area, across the basin and over into the
exposed areas of the southern to central ID Panhandle. Winds up at
850 mbs look to peak at around 35-40 kts, which would translate to
a gust potential somewhere in the range of up to 40-45 mph. There
is a good possibility that a Wind Advisory will be needed for
Tuesday afternoon, but is still a bit early for a highlight at
this time this far out in the forecast period.

A 500 mb cold pool aloft will also result in the atmosphere
destabilizing through the afternoon. Showers will develop out
ahead of the cold front through the morning on Tuesday with more
showers likely developing in the conditionally unstable atmosphere
through the afternoon hours. Best chances for showers are expected
across the eastern half of the forecast area. There will also be a
chance for thunderstorms in the afternoon across the Okanogan
Highlands over into the Northern Panhandle.

Tuesday night through Sunday: A cold upper level trough of lower
pressure will hang around through Thursday. The cold front on
Tuesday will usher in colder temperatures with temperatures
closer to or slightly below normal. The cold upper level trough
will result in afternoon showers with the potential for some soft
hail or graupel. Shortwave ridging of higher pressure moves in
Thursday night, but another upper level trough of lower pressure
looks to drop down into the region for Friday through the
weekend. This will keep temperatures slightly below normal with
more convective showers expected, especially during the afternoon.
/SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The next system will spread an increase in mid and high
clouds across the area overnight into Sunday. Patchy fog or
stratus may develop between 9-15z Sunday for the northern
valleys...but should not impact any of the TAF sites. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        59  41  63  42  54  33 /  10  10   0  10  60  20
Coeur d`Alene  58  39  64  40  53  32 /  10  10   0  10  70  40
Pullman        60  40  65  41  51  35 /   0   0   0  20  60  20
Lewiston       66  43  70  46  56  37 /   0   0   0  20  50  20
Colville       60  41  65  40  56  31 /  10  10   0  10  70  30
Sandpoint      56  38  59  38  51  33 /  10  10   0  10  80  50
Kellogg        54  39  63  40  47  33 /  10  10   0  30  80  50
Moses Lake     67  40  69  43  59  34 /  10   0   0   0  20  10
Wenatchee      65  44  68  44  58  38 /  10   0   0  10  20  10
Omak           64  39  66  40  60  32 /  10  10   0  10  40  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 290917
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
217 AM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The storm track will retreat north into Canada today and Monday
producing mild weather to the Inland Northwest. A vigorous spring
storm system will bring another chance for showers and strong
winds to our region on Tuesday. Wind gusts exceeding 40 mph will
be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Wednesday through next
weekend looks to be showery with temperatures near normal.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG COLD FRONT TO DELIVER WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INLAND
NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

Today through Monday: A flat upper level ridge at 500mb will
reside over the Pacific Northwest today into Monday. Vancouver
Island and the southern coast of British Columbia will experience
periods of rain during the next couple of days as a plume of
subtropical moisture is directed into southwestern Canada. Small
chances for light rain will extend as far south as the mountains
of far north central and northeast Washington today and tonight,
but the majority of our forecast area should be dry under bands of
mid and high level clouds. There will be much less wind today and
Monday with the typical afternoon increase in southwest winds,
generally in the 10 to 15 mph range. /GKoch

Tuesday: A vigorous cold front will seep across the region
Tuesday morning with the upper level trough of lower pressure
moving in for the afternoon. Models are in good agreement with a
deepening surface low scooting across southern BC into southern
Alberta through the day on Tuesday. Models all show the surface
low bottoming out at around 992 mbs along the eastern Divide in
southern Alberta by the afternoon hours. This will set up a
strong surface gradient, which will coincide with a favorable
time of day for mixing potential. The surface gradient looks to be
a little bit stronger compared to this past Saturday`s wind event
and there were spotty locations with sustained wind speeds of
30-35 mph. This front will have the potential for similar wind
speeds, but on a more widespread basis. This will include anywhere
from the Wenatchee Area, across the basin and over into the
exposed areas of the southern to central ID Panhandle. Winds up at
850 mbs look to peak at around 35-40 kts, which would translate to
a gust potential somewhere in the range of up to 40-45 mph. There
is a good possibility that a Wind Advisory will be needed for
Tuesday afternoon, but is still a bit early for a highlight at
this time this far out in the forecast period.

A 500 mb cold pool aloft will also result in the atmosphere
destabilizing through the afternoon. Showers will develop out
ahead of the cold front through the morning on Tuesday with more
showers likely developing in the conditionally unstable atmosphere
through the afternoon hours. Best chances for showers are expected
across the eastern half of the forecast area. There will also be a
chance for thunderstorms in the afternoon across the Okanogan
Highlands over into the Northern Panhandle.

Tuesday night through Sunday: A cold upper level trough of lower
pressure will hang around through Thursday. The cold front on
Tuesday will usher in colder temperatures with temperatures
closer to or slightly below normal. The cold upper level trough
will result in afternoon showers with the potential for some soft
hail or graupel. Shortwave ridging of higher pressure moves in
Thursday night, but another upper level trough of lower pressure
looks to drop down into the region for Friday through the
weekend. This will keep temperatures slightly below normal with
more convective showers expected, especially during the afternoon.
/SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The next system will spread an increase in mid and high
clouds across the area overnight into Sunday. Patchy fog or
stratus may develop between 9-15z Sunday for the northern
valleys...but should not impact any of the TAF sites. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        59  41  63  42  54  33 /  10  10   0  10  60  20
Coeur d`Alene  58  39  64  40  53  32 /  10  10   0  10  70  40
Pullman        60  40  65  41  51  35 /   0   0   0  20  60  20
Lewiston       66  43  70  46  56  37 /   0   0   0  20  50  20
Colville       60  41  65  40  56  31 /  10  10   0  10  70  30
Sandpoint      56  38  59  38  51  33 /  10  10   0  10  80  50
Kellogg        54  39  63  40  47  33 /  10  10   0  30  80  50
Moses Lake     67  40  69  43  59  34 /  10   0   0   0  20  10
Wenatchee      65  44  68  44  58  38 /  10   0   0  10  20  10
Omak           64  39  66  40  60  32 /  10  10   0  10  40  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 290917
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
217 AM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The storm track will retreat north into Canada today and Monday
producing mild weather to the Inland Northwest. A vigorous spring
storm system will bring another chance for showers and strong
winds to our region on Tuesday. Wind gusts exceeding 40 mph will
be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Wednesday through next
weekend looks to be showery with temperatures near normal.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG COLD FRONT TO DELIVER WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INLAND
NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

Today through Monday: A flat upper level ridge at 500mb will
reside over the Pacific Northwest today into Monday. Vancouver
Island and the southern coast of British Columbia will experience
periods of rain during the next couple of days as a plume of
subtropical moisture is directed into southwestern Canada. Small
chances for light rain will extend as far south as the mountains
of far north central and northeast Washington today and tonight,
but the majority of our forecast area should be dry under bands of
mid and high level clouds. There will be much less wind today and
Monday with the typical afternoon increase in southwest winds,
generally in the 10 to 15 mph range. /GKoch

Tuesday: A vigorous cold front will seep across the region
Tuesday morning with the upper level trough of lower pressure
moving in for the afternoon. Models are in good agreement with a
deepening surface low scooting across southern BC into southern
Alberta through the day on Tuesday. Models all show the surface
low bottoming out at around 992 mbs along the eastern Divide in
southern Alberta by the afternoon hours. This will set up a
strong surface gradient, which will coincide with a favorable
time of day for mixing potential. The surface gradient looks to be
a little bit stronger compared to this past Saturday`s wind event
and there were spotty locations with sustained wind speeds of
30-35 mph. This front will have the potential for similar wind
speeds, but on a more widespread basis. This will include anywhere
from the Wenatchee Area, across the basin and over into the
exposed areas of the southern to central ID Panhandle. Winds up at
850 mbs look to peak at around 35-40 kts, which would translate to
a gust potential somewhere in the range of up to 40-45 mph. There
is a good possibility that a Wind Advisory will be needed for
Tuesday afternoon, but is still a bit early for a highlight at
this time this far out in the forecast period.

A 500 mb cold pool aloft will also result in the atmosphere
destabilizing through the afternoon. Showers will develop out
ahead of the cold front through the morning on Tuesday with more
showers likely developing in the conditionally unstable atmosphere
through the afternoon hours. Best chances for showers are expected
across the eastern half of the forecast area. There will also be a
chance for thunderstorms in the afternoon across the Okanogan
Highlands over into the Northern Panhandle.

Tuesday night through Sunday: A cold upper level trough of lower
pressure will hang around through Thursday. The cold front on
Tuesday will usher in colder temperatures with temperatures
closer to or slightly below normal. The cold upper level trough
will result in afternoon showers with the potential for some soft
hail or graupel. Shortwave ridging of higher pressure moves in
Thursday night, but another upper level trough of lower pressure
looks to drop down into the region for Friday through the
weekend. This will keep temperatures slightly below normal with
more convective showers expected, especially during the afternoon.
/SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The next system will spread an increase in mid and high
clouds across the area overnight into Sunday. Patchy fog or
stratus may develop between 9-15z Sunday for the northern
valleys...but should not impact any of the TAF sites. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        59  41  63  42  54  33 /  10  10   0  10  60  20
Coeur d`Alene  58  39  64  40  53  32 /  10  10   0  10  70  40
Pullman        60  40  65  41  51  35 /   0   0   0  20  60  20
Lewiston       66  43  70  46  56  37 /   0   0   0  20  50  20
Colville       60  41  65  40  56  31 /  10  10   0  10  70  30
Sandpoint      56  38  59  38  51  33 /  10  10   0  10  80  50
Kellogg        54  39  63  40  47  33 /  10  10   0  30  80  50
Moses Lake     67  40  69  43  59  34 /  10   0   0   0  20  10
Wenatchee      65  44  68  44  58  38 /  10   0   0  10  20  10
Omak           64  39  66  40  60  32 /  10  10   0  10  40  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 290917
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
217 AM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The storm track will retreat north into Canada today and Monday
producing mild weather to the Inland Northwest. A vigorous spring
storm system will bring another chance for showers and strong
winds to our region on Tuesday. Wind gusts exceeding 40 mph will
be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Wednesday through next
weekend looks to be showery with temperatures near normal.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG COLD FRONT TO DELIVER WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INLAND
NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

Today through Monday: A flat upper level ridge at 500mb will
reside over the Pacific Northwest today into Monday. Vancouver
Island and the southern coast of British Columbia will experience
periods of rain during the next couple of days as a plume of
subtropical moisture is directed into southwestern Canada. Small
chances for light rain will extend as far south as the mountains
of far north central and northeast Washington today and tonight,
but the majority of our forecast area should be dry under bands of
mid and high level clouds. There will be much less wind today and
Monday with the typical afternoon increase in southwest winds,
generally in the 10 to 15 mph range. /GKoch

Tuesday: A vigorous cold front will seep across the region
Tuesday morning with the upper level trough of lower pressure
moving in for the afternoon. Models are in good agreement with a
deepening surface low scooting across southern BC into southern
Alberta through the day on Tuesday. Models all show the surface
low bottoming out at around 992 mbs along the eastern Divide in
southern Alberta by the afternoon hours. This will set up a
strong surface gradient, which will coincide with a favorable
time of day for mixing potential. The surface gradient looks to be
a little bit stronger compared to this past Saturday`s wind event
and there were spotty locations with sustained wind speeds of
30-35 mph. This front will have the potential for similar wind
speeds, but on a more widespread basis. This will include anywhere
from the Wenatchee Area, across the basin and over into the
exposed areas of the southern to central ID Panhandle. Winds up at
850 mbs look to peak at around 35-40 kts, which would translate to
a gust potential somewhere in the range of up to 40-45 mph. There
is a good possibility that a Wind Advisory will be needed for
Tuesday afternoon, but is still a bit early for a highlight at
this time this far out in the forecast period.

A 500 mb cold pool aloft will also result in the atmosphere
destabilizing through the afternoon. Showers will develop out
ahead of the cold front through the morning on Tuesday with more
showers likely developing in the conditionally unstable atmosphere
through the afternoon hours. Best chances for showers are expected
across the eastern half of the forecast area. There will also be a
chance for thunderstorms in the afternoon across the Okanogan
Highlands over into the Northern Panhandle.

Tuesday night through Sunday: A cold upper level trough of lower
pressure will hang around through Thursday. The cold front on
Tuesday will usher in colder temperatures with temperatures
closer to or slightly below normal. The cold upper level trough
will result in afternoon showers with the potential for some soft
hail or graupel. Shortwave ridging of higher pressure moves in
Thursday night, but another upper level trough of lower pressure
looks to drop down into the region for Friday through the
weekend. This will keep temperatures slightly below normal with
more convective showers expected, especially during the afternoon.
/SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The next system will spread an increase in mid and high
clouds across the area overnight into Sunday. Patchy fog or
stratus may develop between 9-15z Sunday for the northern
valleys...but should not impact any of the TAF sites. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        59  41  63  42  54  33 /  10  10   0  10  60  20
Coeur d`Alene  58  39  64  40  53  32 /  10  10   0  10  70  40
Pullman        60  40  65  41  51  35 /   0   0   0  20  60  20
Lewiston       66  43  70  46  56  37 /   0   0   0  20  50  20
Colville       60  41  65  40  56  31 /  10  10   0  10  70  30
Sandpoint      56  38  59  38  51  33 /  10  10   0  10  80  50
Kellogg        54  39  63  40  47  33 /  10  10   0  30  80  50
Moses Lake     67  40  69  43  59  34 /  10   0   0   0  20  10
Wenatchee      65  44  68  44  58  38 /  10   0   0  10  20  10
Omak           64  39  66  40  60  32 /  10  10   0  10  40  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 290917
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
217 AM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The storm track will retreat north into Canada today and Monday
producing mild weather to the Inland Northwest. A vigorous spring
storm system will bring another chance for showers and strong
winds to our region on Tuesday. Wind gusts exceeding 40 mph will
be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Wednesday through next
weekend looks to be showery with temperatures near normal.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG COLD FRONT TO DELIVER WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INLAND
NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

Today through Monday: A flat upper level ridge at 500mb will
reside over the Pacific Northwest today into Monday. Vancouver
Island and the southern coast of British Columbia will experience
periods of rain during the next couple of days as a plume of
subtropical moisture is directed into southwestern Canada. Small
chances for light rain will extend as far south as the mountains
of far north central and northeast Washington today and tonight,
but the majority of our forecast area should be dry under bands of
mid and high level clouds. There will be much less wind today and
Monday with the typical afternoon increase in southwest winds,
generally in the 10 to 15 mph range. /GKoch

Tuesday: A vigorous cold front will seep across the region
Tuesday morning with the upper level trough of lower pressure
moving in for the afternoon. Models are in good agreement with a
deepening surface low scooting across southern BC into southern
Alberta through the day on Tuesday. Models all show the surface
low bottoming out at around 992 mbs along the eastern Divide in
southern Alberta by the afternoon hours. This will set up a
strong surface gradient, which will coincide with a favorable
time of day for mixing potential. The surface gradient looks to be
a little bit stronger compared to this past Saturday`s wind event
and there were spotty locations with sustained wind speeds of
30-35 mph. This front will have the potential for similar wind
speeds, but on a more widespread basis. This will include anywhere
from the Wenatchee Area, across the basin and over into the
exposed areas of the southern to central ID Panhandle. Winds up at
850 mbs look to peak at around 35-40 kts, which would translate to
a gust potential somewhere in the range of up to 40-45 mph. There
is a good possibility that a Wind Advisory will be needed for
Tuesday afternoon, but is still a bit early for a highlight at
this time this far out in the forecast period.

A 500 mb cold pool aloft will also result in the atmosphere
destabilizing through the afternoon. Showers will develop out
ahead of the cold front through the morning on Tuesday with more
showers likely developing in the conditionally unstable atmosphere
through the afternoon hours. Best chances for showers are expected
across the eastern half of the forecast area. There will also be a
chance for thunderstorms in the afternoon across the Okanogan
Highlands over into the Northern Panhandle.

Tuesday night through Sunday: A cold upper level trough of lower
pressure will hang around through Thursday. The cold front on
Tuesday will usher in colder temperatures with temperatures
closer to or slightly below normal. The cold upper level trough
will result in afternoon showers with the potential for some soft
hail or graupel. Shortwave ridging of higher pressure moves in
Thursday night, but another upper level trough of lower pressure
looks to drop down into the region for Friday through the
weekend. This will keep temperatures slightly below normal with
more convective showers expected, especially during the afternoon.
/SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The next system will spread an increase in mid and high
clouds across the area overnight into Sunday. Patchy fog or
stratus may develop between 9-15z Sunday for the northern
valleys...but should not impact any of the TAF sites. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        59  41  63  42  54  33 /  10  10   0  10  60  20
Coeur d`Alene  58  39  64  40  53  32 /  10  10   0  10  70  40
Pullman        60  40  65  41  51  35 /   0   0   0  20  60  20
Lewiston       66  43  70  46  56  37 /   0   0   0  20  50  20
Colville       60  41  65  40  56  31 /  10  10   0  10  70  30
Sandpoint      56  38  59  38  51  33 /  10  10   0  10  80  50
Kellogg        54  39  63  40  47  33 /  10  10   0  30  80  50
Moses Lake     67  40  69  43  59  34 /  10   0   0   0  20  10
Wenatchee      65  44  68  44  58  38 /  10   0   0  10  20  10
Omak           64  39  66  40  60  32 /  10  10   0  10  40  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 290917
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
217 AM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The storm track will retreat north into Canada today and Monday
producing mild weather to the Inland Northwest. A vigorous spring
storm system will bring another chance for showers and strong
winds to our region on Tuesday. Wind gusts exceeding 40 mph will
be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Wednesday through next
weekend looks to be showery with temperatures near normal.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG COLD FRONT TO DELIVER WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INLAND
NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

Today through Monday: A flat upper level ridge at 500mb will
reside over the Pacific Northwest today into Monday. Vancouver
Island and the southern coast of British Columbia will experience
periods of rain during the next couple of days as a plume of
subtropical moisture is directed into southwestern Canada. Small
chances for light rain will extend as far south as the mountains
of far north central and northeast Washington today and tonight,
but the majority of our forecast area should be dry under bands of
mid and high level clouds. There will be much less wind today and
Monday with the typical afternoon increase in southwest winds,
generally in the 10 to 15 mph range. /GKoch

Tuesday: A vigorous cold front will seep across the region
Tuesday morning with the upper level trough of lower pressure
moving in for the afternoon. Models are in good agreement with a
deepening surface low scooting across southern BC into southern
Alberta through the day on Tuesday. Models all show the surface
low bottoming out at around 992 mbs along the eastern Divide in
southern Alberta by the afternoon hours. This will set up a
strong surface gradient, which will coincide with a favorable
time of day for mixing potential. The surface gradient looks to be
a little bit stronger compared to this past Saturday`s wind event
and there were spotty locations with sustained wind speeds of
30-35 mph. This front will have the potential for similar wind
speeds, but on a more widespread basis. This will include anywhere
from the Wenatchee Area, across the basin and over into the
exposed areas of the southern to central ID Panhandle. Winds up at
850 mbs look to peak at around 35-40 kts, which would translate to
a gust potential somewhere in the range of up to 40-45 mph. There
is a good possibility that a Wind Advisory will be needed for
Tuesday afternoon, but is still a bit early for a highlight at
this time this far out in the forecast period.

A 500 mb cold pool aloft will also result in the atmosphere
destabilizing through the afternoon. Showers will develop out
ahead of the cold front through the morning on Tuesday with more
showers likely developing in the conditionally unstable atmosphere
through the afternoon hours. Best chances for showers are expected
across the eastern half of the forecast area. There will also be a
chance for thunderstorms in the afternoon across the Okanogan
Highlands over into the Northern Panhandle.

Tuesday night through Sunday: A cold upper level trough of lower
pressure will hang around through Thursday. The cold front on
Tuesday will usher in colder temperatures with temperatures
closer to or slightly below normal. The cold upper level trough
will result in afternoon showers with the potential for some soft
hail or graupel. Shortwave ridging of higher pressure moves in
Thursday night, but another upper level trough of lower pressure
looks to drop down into the region for Friday through the
weekend. This will keep temperatures slightly below normal with
more convective showers expected, especially during the afternoon.
/SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The next system will spread an increase in mid and high
clouds across the area overnight into Sunday. Patchy fog or
stratus may develop between 9-15z Sunday for the northern
valleys...but should not impact any of the TAF sites. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        59  41  63  42  54  33 /  10  10   0  10  60  20
Coeur d`Alene  58  39  64  40  53  32 /  10  10   0  10  70  40
Pullman        60  40  65  41  51  35 /   0   0   0  20  60  20
Lewiston       66  43  70  46  56  37 /   0   0   0  20  50  20
Colville       60  41  65  40  56  31 /  10  10   0  10  70  30
Sandpoint      56  38  59  38  51  33 /  10  10   0  10  80  50
Kellogg        54  39  63  40  47  33 /  10  10   0  30  80  50
Moses Lake     67  40  69  43  59  34 /  10   0   0   0  20  10
Wenatchee      65  44  68  44  58  38 /  10   0   0  10  20  10
Omak           64  39  66  40  60  32 /  10  10   0  10  40  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 290917
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
217 AM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The storm track will retreat north into Canada today and Monday
producing mild weather to the Inland Northwest. A vigorous spring
storm system will bring another chance for showers and strong
winds to our region on Tuesday. Wind gusts exceeding 40 mph will
be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Wednesday through next
weekend looks to be showery with temperatures near normal.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG COLD FRONT TO DELIVER WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INLAND
NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

Today through Monday: A flat upper level ridge at 500mb will
reside over the Pacific Northwest today into Monday. Vancouver
Island and the southern coast of British Columbia will experience
periods of rain during the next couple of days as a plume of
subtropical moisture is directed into southwestern Canada. Small
chances for light rain will extend as far south as the mountains
of far north central and northeast Washington today and tonight,
but the majority of our forecast area should be dry under bands of
mid and high level clouds. There will be much less wind today and
Monday with the typical afternoon increase in southwest winds,
generally in the 10 to 15 mph range. /GKoch

Tuesday: A vigorous cold front will seep across the region
Tuesday morning with the upper level trough of lower pressure
moving in for the afternoon. Models are in good agreement with a
deepening surface low scooting across southern BC into southern
Alberta through the day on Tuesday. Models all show the surface
low bottoming out at around 992 mbs along the eastern Divide in
southern Alberta by the afternoon hours. This will set up a
strong surface gradient, which will coincide with a favorable
time of day for mixing potential. The surface gradient looks to be
a little bit stronger compared to this past Saturday`s wind event
and there were spotty locations with sustained wind speeds of
30-35 mph. This front will have the potential for similar wind
speeds, but on a more widespread basis. This will include anywhere
from the Wenatchee Area, across the basin and over into the
exposed areas of the southern to central ID Panhandle. Winds up at
850 mbs look to peak at around 35-40 kts, which would translate to
a gust potential somewhere in the range of up to 40-45 mph. There
is a good possibility that a Wind Advisory will be needed for
Tuesday afternoon, but is still a bit early for a highlight at
this time this far out in the forecast period.

A 500 mb cold pool aloft will also result in the atmosphere
destabilizing through the afternoon. Showers will develop out
ahead of the cold front through the morning on Tuesday with more
showers likely developing in the conditionally unstable atmosphere
through the afternoon hours. Best chances for showers are expected
across the eastern half of the forecast area. There will also be a
chance for thunderstorms in the afternoon across the Okanogan
Highlands over into the Northern Panhandle.

Tuesday night through Sunday: A cold upper level trough of lower
pressure will hang around through Thursday. The cold front on
Tuesday will usher in colder temperatures with temperatures
closer to or slightly below normal. The cold upper level trough
will result in afternoon showers with the potential for some soft
hail or graupel. Shortwave ridging of higher pressure moves in
Thursday night, but another upper level trough of lower pressure
looks to drop down into the region for Friday through the
weekend. This will keep temperatures slightly below normal with
more convective showers expected, especially during the afternoon.
/SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The next system will spread an increase in mid and high
clouds across the area overnight into Sunday. Patchy fog or
stratus may develop between 9-15z Sunday for the northern
valleys...but should not impact any of the TAF sites. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        59  41  63  42  54  33 /  10  10   0  10  60  20
Coeur d`Alene  58  39  64  40  53  32 /  10  10   0  10  70  40
Pullman        60  40  65  41  51  35 /   0   0   0  20  60  20
Lewiston       66  43  70  46  56  37 /   0   0   0  20  50  20
Colville       60  41  65  40  56  31 /  10  10   0  10  70  30
Sandpoint      56  38  59  38  51  33 /  10  10   0  10  80  50
Kellogg        54  39  63  40  47  33 /  10  10   0  30  80  50
Moses Lake     67  40  69  43  59  34 /  10   0   0   0  20  10
Wenatchee      65  44  68  44  58  38 /  10   0   0  10  20  10
Omak           64  39  66  40  60  32 /  10  10   0  10  40  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 290917
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
217 AM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The storm track will retreat north into Canada today and Monday
producing mild weather to the Inland Northwest. A vigorous spring
storm system will bring another chance for showers and strong
winds to our region on Tuesday. Wind gusts exceeding 40 mph will
be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Wednesday through next
weekend looks to be showery with temperatures near normal.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG COLD FRONT TO DELIVER WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INLAND
NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

Today through Monday: A flat upper level ridge at 500mb will
reside over the Pacific Northwest today into Monday. Vancouver
Island and the southern coast of British Columbia will experience
periods of rain during the next couple of days as a plume of
subtropical moisture is directed into southwestern Canada. Small
chances for light rain will extend as far south as the mountains
of far north central and northeast Washington today and tonight,
but the majority of our forecast area should be dry under bands of
mid and high level clouds. There will be much less wind today and
Monday with the typical afternoon increase in southwest winds,
generally in the 10 to 15 mph range. /GKoch

Tuesday: A vigorous cold front will seep across the region
Tuesday morning with the upper level trough of lower pressure
moving in for the afternoon. Models are in good agreement with a
deepening surface low scooting across southern BC into southern
Alberta through the day on Tuesday. Models all show the surface
low bottoming out at around 992 mbs along the eastern Divide in
southern Alberta by the afternoon hours. This will set up a
strong surface gradient, which will coincide with a favorable
time of day for mixing potential. The surface gradient looks to be
a little bit stronger compared to this past Saturday`s wind event
and there were spotty locations with sustained wind speeds of
30-35 mph. This front will have the potential for similar wind
speeds, but on a more widespread basis. This will include anywhere
from the Wenatchee Area, across the basin and over into the
exposed areas of the southern to central ID Panhandle. Winds up at
850 mbs look to peak at around 35-40 kts, which would translate to
a gust potential somewhere in the range of up to 40-45 mph. There
is a good possibility that a Wind Advisory will be needed for
Tuesday afternoon, but is still a bit early for a highlight at
this time this far out in the forecast period.

A 500 mb cold pool aloft will also result in the atmosphere
destabilizing through the afternoon. Showers will develop out
ahead of the cold front through the morning on Tuesday with more
showers likely developing in the conditionally unstable atmosphere
through the afternoon hours. Best chances for showers are expected
across the eastern half of the forecast area. There will also be a
chance for thunderstorms in the afternoon across the Okanogan
Highlands over into the Northern Panhandle.

Tuesday night through Sunday: A cold upper level trough of lower
pressure will hang around through Thursday. The cold front on
Tuesday will usher in colder temperatures with temperatures
closer to or slightly below normal. The cold upper level trough
will result in afternoon showers with the potential for some soft
hail or graupel. Shortwave ridging of higher pressure moves in
Thursday night, but another upper level trough of lower pressure
looks to drop down into the region for Friday through the
weekend. This will keep temperatures slightly below normal with
more convective showers expected, especially during the afternoon.
/SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The next system will spread an increase in mid and high
clouds across the area overnight into Sunday. Patchy fog or
stratus may develop between 9-15z Sunday for the northern
valleys...but should not impact any of the TAF sites. JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        59  41  63  42  54  33 /  10  10   0  10  60  20
Coeur d`Alene  58  39  64  40  53  32 /  10  10   0  10  70  40
Pullman        60  40  65  41  51  35 /   0   0   0  20  60  20
Lewiston       66  43  70  46  56  37 /   0   0   0  20  50  20
Colville       60  41  65  40  56  31 /  10  10   0  10  70  30
Sandpoint      56  38  59  38  51  33 /  10  10   0  10  80  50
Kellogg        54  39  63  40  47  33 /  10  10   0  30  80  50
Moses Lake     67  40  69  43  59  34 /  10   0   0   0  20  10
Wenatchee      65  44  68  44  58  38 /  10   0   0  10  20  10
Omak           64  39  66  40  60  32 /  10  10   0  10  40  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 290526
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1026 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather Sunday and Monday should be mild and relatively dry.
Another fast moving front on Tuesday will bring more showers and
windy conditions. The pattern of unsettled weather will continue
through the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The forecast has been updated for latest wind/sky cover trends.
Overall these changes were very minor.

With the setting sun and loss of daytime heating the lower
atmosphere will continue to stabilize through tonight. Winds early
this evening have decreased with this trend expected to continue
through the night as pressure gradients relax. Otherwise expect
mid and high clouds to continue to pass through the region tonight
as a moist frontal system remains aimed north of the Canadian
border from Vancouver Island into southern British Columbia. These
mid and high clouds are expected to increase overnight...which
should prevent fog formation in the northern valleys...although a
few stray patches can not be ruled out. Radar composites indicate
showers have ended across the area...except near the Cascade crest
where a few showers will remain possible through the night. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The next system will spread an increase in mid and high
clouds across the area overnight into Sunday. Patchy fog or
stratus may develop between 9-15z Sunday for the northern
valleys...but should not impact any of the TAF sites. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  58  40  63  43  55 /   0  10  10  10  10  50
Coeur d`Alene  36  58  38  65  41  54 /   0  10  10  10  20  60
Pullman        38  58  41  65  44  52 /   0  10  10  10  30  60
Lewiston       40  64  43  69  46  56 /   0   0   0   0  20  50
Colville       37  60  40  64  41  57 /   0  10  10  10  20  50
Sandpoint      35  56  37  61  38  51 /   0  10  10  10  20  70
Kellogg        36  56  38  63  40  48 /  10  10  10  10  30  70
Moses Lake     39  65  40  68  43  60 /   0  10   0   0  10  20
Wenatchee      42  64  44  68  45  58 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Omak           38  62  39  67  41  60 /  10  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 290526
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1026 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather Sunday and Monday should be mild and relatively dry.
Another fast moving front on Tuesday will bring more showers and
windy conditions. The pattern of unsettled weather will continue
through the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The forecast has been updated for latest wind/sky cover trends.
Overall these changes were very minor.

With the setting sun and loss of daytime heating the lower
atmosphere will continue to stabilize through tonight. Winds early
this evening have decreased with this trend expected to continue
through the night as pressure gradients relax. Otherwise expect
mid and high clouds to continue to pass through the region tonight
as a moist frontal system remains aimed north of the Canadian
border from Vancouver Island into southern British Columbia. These
mid and high clouds are expected to increase overnight...which
should prevent fog formation in the northern valleys...although a
few stray patches can not be ruled out. Radar composites indicate
showers have ended across the area...except near the Cascade crest
where a few showers will remain possible through the night. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The next system will spread an increase in mid and high
clouds across the area overnight into Sunday. Patchy fog or
stratus may develop between 9-15z Sunday for the northern
valleys...but should not impact any of the TAF sites. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  58  40  63  43  55 /   0  10  10  10  10  50
Coeur d`Alene  36  58  38  65  41  54 /   0  10  10  10  20  60
Pullman        38  58  41  65  44  52 /   0  10  10  10  30  60
Lewiston       40  64  43  69  46  56 /   0   0   0   0  20  50
Colville       37  60  40  64  41  57 /   0  10  10  10  20  50
Sandpoint      35  56  37  61  38  51 /   0  10  10  10  20  70
Kellogg        36  56  38  63  40  48 /  10  10  10  10  30  70
Moses Lake     39  65  40  68  43  60 /   0  10   0   0  10  20
Wenatchee      42  64  44  68  45  58 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Omak           38  62  39  67  41  60 /  10  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 290526
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1026 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather Sunday and Monday should be mild and relatively dry.
Another fast moving front on Tuesday will bring more showers and
windy conditions. The pattern of unsettled weather will continue
through the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The forecast has been updated for latest wind/sky cover trends.
Overall these changes were very minor.

With the setting sun and loss of daytime heating the lower
atmosphere will continue to stabilize through tonight. Winds early
this evening have decreased with this trend expected to continue
through the night as pressure gradients relax. Otherwise expect
mid and high clouds to continue to pass through the region tonight
as a moist frontal system remains aimed north of the Canadian
border from Vancouver Island into southern British Columbia. These
mid and high clouds are expected to increase overnight...which
should prevent fog formation in the northern valleys...although a
few stray patches can not be ruled out. Radar composites indicate
showers have ended across the area...except near the Cascade crest
where a few showers will remain possible through the night. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The next system will spread an increase in mid and high
clouds across the area overnight into Sunday. Patchy fog or
stratus may develop between 9-15z Sunday for the northern
valleys...but should not impact any of the TAF sites. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  58  40  63  43  55 /   0  10  10  10  10  50
Coeur d`Alene  36  58  38  65  41  54 /   0  10  10  10  20  60
Pullman        38  58  41  65  44  52 /   0  10  10  10  30  60
Lewiston       40  64  43  69  46  56 /   0   0   0   0  20  50
Colville       37  60  40  64  41  57 /   0  10  10  10  20  50
Sandpoint      35  56  37  61  38  51 /   0  10  10  10  20  70
Kellogg        36  56  38  63  40  48 /  10  10  10  10  30  70
Moses Lake     39  65  40  68  43  60 /   0  10   0   0  10  20
Wenatchee      42  64  44  68  45  58 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Omak           38  62  39  67  41  60 /  10  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 290526
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1026 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather Sunday and Monday should be mild and relatively dry.
Another fast moving front on Tuesday will bring more showers and
windy conditions. The pattern of unsettled weather will continue
through the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The forecast has been updated for latest wind/sky cover trends.
Overall these changes were very minor.

With the setting sun and loss of daytime heating the lower
atmosphere will continue to stabilize through tonight. Winds early
this evening have decreased with this trend expected to continue
through the night as pressure gradients relax. Otherwise expect
mid and high clouds to continue to pass through the region tonight
as a moist frontal system remains aimed north of the Canadian
border from Vancouver Island into southern British Columbia. These
mid and high clouds are expected to increase overnight...which
should prevent fog formation in the northern valleys...although a
few stray patches can not be ruled out. Radar composites indicate
showers have ended across the area...except near the Cascade crest
where a few showers will remain possible through the night. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The next system will spread an increase in mid and high
clouds across the area overnight into Sunday. Patchy fog or
stratus may develop between 9-15z Sunday for the northern
valleys...but should not impact any of the TAF sites. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  58  40  63  43  55 /   0  10  10  10  10  50
Coeur d`Alene  36  58  38  65  41  54 /   0  10  10  10  20  60
Pullman        38  58  41  65  44  52 /   0  10  10  10  30  60
Lewiston       40  64  43  69  46  56 /   0   0   0   0  20  50
Colville       37  60  40  64  41  57 /   0  10  10  10  20  50
Sandpoint      35  56  37  61  38  51 /   0  10  10  10  20  70
Kellogg        36  56  38  63  40  48 /  10  10  10  10  30  70
Moses Lake     39  65  40  68  43  60 /   0  10   0   0  10  20
Wenatchee      42  64  44  68  45  58 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Omak           38  62  39  67  41  60 /  10  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 290526
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1026 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather Sunday and Monday should be mild and relatively dry.
Another fast moving front on Tuesday will bring more showers and
windy conditions. The pattern of unsettled weather will continue
through the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The forecast has been updated for latest wind/sky cover trends.
Overall these changes were very minor.

With the setting sun and loss of daytime heating the lower
atmosphere will continue to stabilize through tonight. Winds early
this evening have decreased with this trend expected to continue
through the night as pressure gradients relax. Otherwise expect
mid and high clouds to continue to pass through the region tonight
as a moist frontal system remains aimed north of the Canadian
border from Vancouver Island into southern British Columbia. These
mid and high clouds are expected to increase overnight...which
should prevent fog formation in the northern valleys...although a
few stray patches can not be ruled out. Radar composites indicate
showers have ended across the area...except near the Cascade crest
where a few showers will remain possible through the night. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The next system will spread an increase in mid and high
clouds across the area overnight into Sunday. Patchy fog or
stratus may develop between 9-15z Sunday for the northern
valleys...but should not impact any of the TAF sites. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  58  40  63  43  55 /   0  10  10  10  10  50
Coeur d`Alene  36  58  38  65  41  54 /   0  10  10  10  20  60
Pullman        38  58  41  65  44  52 /   0  10  10  10  30  60
Lewiston       40  64  43  69  46  56 /   0   0   0   0  20  50
Colville       37  60  40  64  41  57 /   0  10  10  10  20  50
Sandpoint      35  56  37  61  38  51 /   0  10  10  10  20  70
Kellogg        36  56  38  63  40  48 /  10  10  10  10  30  70
Moses Lake     39  65  40  68  43  60 /   0  10   0   0  10  20
Wenatchee      42  64  44  68  45  58 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Omak           38  62  39  67  41  60 /  10  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 290526
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1026 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather Sunday and Monday should be mild and relatively dry.
Another fast moving front on Tuesday will bring more showers and
windy conditions. The pattern of unsettled weather will continue
through the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The forecast has been updated for latest wind/sky cover trends.
Overall these changes were very minor.

With the setting sun and loss of daytime heating the lower
atmosphere will continue to stabilize through tonight. Winds early
this evening have decreased with this trend expected to continue
through the night as pressure gradients relax. Otherwise expect
mid and high clouds to continue to pass through the region tonight
as a moist frontal system remains aimed north of the Canadian
border from Vancouver Island into southern British Columbia. These
mid and high clouds are expected to increase overnight...which
should prevent fog formation in the northern valleys...although a
few stray patches can not be ruled out. Radar composites indicate
showers have ended across the area...except near the Cascade crest
where a few showers will remain possible through the night. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The next system will spread an increase in mid and high
clouds across the area overnight into Sunday. Patchy fog or
stratus may develop between 9-15z Sunday for the northern
valleys...but should not impact any of the TAF sites. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  58  40  63  43  55 /   0  10  10  10  10  50
Coeur d`Alene  36  58  38  65  41  54 /   0  10  10  10  20  60
Pullman        38  58  41  65  44  52 /   0  10  10  10  30  60
Lewiston       40  64  43  69  46  56 /   0   0   0   0  20  50
Colville       37  60  40  64  41  57 /   0  10  10  10  20  50
Sandpoint      35  56  37  61  38  51 /   0  10  10  10  20  70
Kellogg        36  56  38  63  40  48 /  10  10  10  10  30  70
Moses Lake     39  65  40  68  43  60 /   0  10   0   0  10  20
Wenatchee      42  64  44  68  45  58 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Omak           38  62  39  67  41  60 /  10  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 290526
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1026 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather Sunday and Monday should be mild and relatively dry.
Another fast moving front on Tuesday will bring more showers and
windy conditions. The pattern of unsettled weather will continue
through the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The forecast has been updated for latest wind/sky cover trends.
Overall these changes were very minor.

With the setting sun and loss of daytime heating the lower
atmosphere will continue to stabilize through tonight. Winds early
this evening have decreased with this trend expected to continue
through the night as pressure gradients relax. Otherwise expect
mid and high clouds to continue to pass through the region tonight
as a moist frontal system remains aimed north of the Canadian
border from Vancouver Island into southern British Columbia. These
mid and high clouds are expected to increase overnight...which
should prevent fog formation in the northern valleys...although a
few stray patches can not be ruled out. Radar composites indicate
showers have ended across the area...except near the Cascade crest
where a few showers will remain possible through the night. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The next system will spread an increase in mid and high
clouds across the area overnight into Sunday. Patchy fog or
stratus may develop between 9-15z Sunday for the northern
valleys...but should not impact any of the TAF sites. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  58  40  63  43  55 /   0  10  10  10  10  50
Coeur d`Alene  36  58  38  65  41  54 /   0  10  10  10  20  60
Pullman        38  58  41  65  44  52 /   0  10  10  10  30  60
Lewiston       40  64  43  69  46  56 /   0   0   0   0  20  50
Colville       37  60  40  64  41  57 /   0  10  10  10  20  50
Sandpoint      35  56  37  61  38  51 /   0  10  10  10  20  70
Kellogg        36  56  38  63  40  48 /  10  10  10  10  30  70
Moses Lake     39  65  40  68  43  60 /   0  10   0   0  10  20
Wenatchee      42  64  44  68  45  58 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Omak           38  62  39  67  41  60 /  10  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 290526
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1026 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather Sunday and Monday should be mild and relatively dry.
Another fast moving front on Tuesday will bring more showers and
windy conditions. The pattern of unsettled weather will continue
through the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The forecast has been updated for latest wind/sky cover trends.
Overall these changes were very minor.

With the setting sun and loss of daytime heating the lower
atmosphere will continue to stabilize through tonight. Winds early
this evening have decreased with this trend expected to continue
through the night as pressure gradients relax. Otherwise expect
mid and high clouds to continue to pass through the region tonight
as a moist frontal system remains aimed north of the Canadian
border from Vancouver Island into southern British Columbia. These
mid and high clouds are expected to increase overnight...which
should prevent fog formation in the northern valleys...although a
few stray patches can not be ruled out. Radar composites indicate
showers have ended across the area...except near the Cascade crest
where a few showers will remain possible through the night. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The next system will spread an increase in mid and high
clouds across the area overnight into Sunday. Patchy fog or
stratus may develop between 9-15z Sunday for the northern
valleys...but should not impact any of the TAF sites. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  58  40  63  43  55 /   0  10  10  10  10  50
Coeur d`Alene  36  58  38  65  41  54 /   0  10  10  10  20  60
Pullman        38  58  41  65  44  52 /   0  10  10  10  30  60
Lewiston       40  64  43  69  46  56 /   0   0   0   0  20  50
Colville       37  60  40  64  41  57 /   0  10  10  10  20  50
Sandpoint      35  56  37  61  38  51 /   0  10  10  10  20  70
Kellogg        36  56  38  63  40  48 /  10  10  10  10  30  70
Moses Lake     39  65  40  68  43  60 /   0  10   0   0  10  20
Wenatchee      42  64  44  68  45  58 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Omak           38  62  39  67  41  60 /  10  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 290357
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
856 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MON AS FLAT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
REGION LATE MONDAY...USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE
AIR MASS...ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WITH VARIABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUN.  AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA ON
MON...FINALLY DRIVING THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ONSHORE AS A COLD
FRONT. EXPECT RAIN TO PUSH ONTO THE COAST MON EVENING...THEN INLAND
OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUE...USHERING
IN A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR MASS. THE FCST MODELS ARE INDICATING
THAT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF POSTFRONTAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUE. THE FCST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO LOOKING DECENTLY UNSTABLE...SO
MAY NEED TO LOOK AT ADDING THUNDER CHANCES TO THE FCST IN THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. AT THE VERY LEAST...IT WILL PROBABLY BE ONE OF THOSE DAYS
WITH PERIODIC HEAVY SHOWERS...SOME LIKELY CONTAINING SMALL HAIL. THE
COLDER AIR SHOULD ALSO DROP SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO CASCADE PASSES WHERE
SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY FALL.  /ROCKPYLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ON TUE...FCST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ONSHORE WED...BRINGING CONTINUED SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW INTO
THU MORNING. THERE IS THEN A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS
MODELED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THU. THIS MAY END UP PROVIDING A
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER THU INTO FRI BEFORE A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE COAST ON FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
FCST CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOWER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. FRI COULD
END UP BEING MOSTLY DRY...BUT THE FCST MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING
TOWARD SPEEDING UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEP TROUGH...WHICH WOULD
BRING MORE RAIN ONSHORE FRI. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z MON. A DRIER AIR
MASS...LESS ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH OVERRIDING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP RADIATIONAL CLOUDS OR FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z MON.
/26

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE A BIT IN
BETWEEN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. NOT MUCH TO COMPARE WITH MODELS
WHICH ARE INDICATING LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. THERE WAS AN ASCAT PASS AROUND NOON TODAY
THAT WAS COMPARABLE TO MODEL FORECAST. WINDS SHOULD EASE
OVERNIGHT.

SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 8 FT TONIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING 8 TO 10 FT
SUN MORNING INTO MONDAY. BUOY 46005 TRENDS THIS EVENING COMPARES
FAVORABLY WITH ENP GUIDANCE SO WILL ADJUST SEAS UP A FOOT OR TWO
ON SUN. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR SUN. TEN FOOT SEAS MAY
OCCASIONALLY REACH THE NEARSHORE WATERS ON SUN BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME.

FURTHER ON...WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS LIKELY
NEEDED FOR THIS TIME...AS WELL AS AN ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING INTO THE 10 TO 12
FT RANGE. CULLEN /26

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT
     SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD
     OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     3 AM PDT SUNDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     11 AM TO 5 PM PDT SUNDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 290357
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
856 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MON AS FLAT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
REGION LATE MONDAY...USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE
AIR MASS...ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WITH VARIABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUN.  AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA ON
MON...FINALLY DRIVING THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ONSHORE AS A COLD
FRONT. EXPECT RAIN TO PUSH ONTO THE COAST MON EVENING...THEN INLAND
OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUE...USHERING
IN A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR MASS. THE FCST MODELS ARE INDICATING
THAT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF POSTFRONTAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUE. THE FCST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO LOOKING DECENTLY UNSTABLE...SO
MAY NEED TO LOOK AT ADDING THUNDER CHANCES TO THE FCST IN THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. AT THE VERY LEAST...IT WILL PROBABLY BE ONE OF THOSE DAYS
WITH PERIODIC HEAVY SHOWERS...SOME LIKELY CONTAINING SMALL HAIL. THE
COLDER AIR SHOULD ALSO DROP SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO CASCADE PASSES WHERE
SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY FALL.  /ROCKPYLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ON TUE...FCST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ONSHORE WED...BRINGING CONTINUED SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW INTO
THU MORNING. THERE IS THEN A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS
MODELED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THU. THIS MAY END UP PROVIDING A
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER THU INTO FRI BEFORE A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE COAST ON FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
FCST CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOWER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. FRI COULD
END UP BEING MOSTLY DRY...BUT THE FCST MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING
TOWARD SPEEDING UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEP TROUGH...WHICH WOULD
BRING MORE RAIN ONSHORE FRI. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z MON. A DRIER AIR
MASS...LESS ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH OVERRIDING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP RADIATIONAL CLOUDS OR FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z MON.
/26

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE A BIT IN
BETWEEN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. NOT MUCH TO COMPARE WITH MODELS
WHICH ARE INDICATING LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. THERE WAS AN ASCAT PASS AROUND NOON TODAY
THAT WAS COMPARABLE TO MODEL FORECAST. WINDS SHOULD EASE
OVERNIGHT.

SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 8 FT TONIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING 8 TO 10 FT
SUN MORNING INTO MONDAY. BUOY 46005 TRENDS THIS EVENING COMPARES
FAVORABLY WITH ENP GUIDANCE SO WILL ADJUST SEAS UP A FOOT OR TWO
ON SUN. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR SUN. TEN FOOT SEAS MAY
OCCASIONALLY REACH THE NEARSHORE WATERS ON SUN BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME.

FURTHER ON...WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS LIKELY
NEEDED FOR THIS TIME...AS WELL AS AN ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING INTO THE 10 TO 12
FT RANGE. CULLEN /26

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT
     SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD
     OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     3 AM PDT SUNDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     11 AM TO 5 PM PDT SUNDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 290357
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
856 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MON AS FLAT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
REGION LATE MONDAY...USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE
AIR MASS...ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WITH VARIABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUN.  AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA ON
MON...FINALLY DRIVING THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ONSHORE AS A COLD
FRONT. EXPECT RAIN TO PUSH ONTO THE COAST MON EVENING...THEN INLAND
OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUE...USHERING
IN A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR MASS. THE FCST MODELS ARE INDICATING
THAT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF POSTFRONTAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUE. THE FCST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO LOOKING DECENTLY UNSTABLE...SO
MAY NEED TO LOOK AT ADDING THUNDER CHANCES TO THE FCST IN THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. AT THE VERY LEAST...IT WILL PROBABLY BE ONE OF THOSE DAYS
WITH PERIODIC HEAVY SHOWERS...SOME LIKELY CONTAINING SMALL HAIL. THE
COLDER AIR SHOULD ALSO DROP SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO CASCADE PASSES WHERE
SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY FALL.  /ROCKPYLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ON TUE...FCST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ONSHORE WED...BRINGING CONTINUED SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW INTO
THU MORNING. THERE IS THEN A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS
MODELED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THU. THIS MAY END UP PROVIDING A
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER THU INTO FRI BEFORE A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE COAST ON FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
FCST CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOWER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. FRI COULD
END UP BEING MOSTLY DRY...BUT THE FCST MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING
TOWARD SPEEDING UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEP TROUGH...WHICH WOULD
BRING MORE RAIN ONSHORE FRI. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z MON. A DRIER AIR
MASS...LESS ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH OVERRIDING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP RADIATIONAL CLOUDS OR FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z MON.
/26

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE A BIT IN
BETWEEN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. NOT MUCH TO COMPARE WITH MODELS
WHICH ARE INDICATING LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. THERE WAS AN ASCAT PASS AROUND NOON TODAY
THAT WAS COMPARABLE TO MODEL FORECAST. WINDS SHOULD EASE
OVERNIGHT.

SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 8 FT TONIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING 8 TO 10 FT
SUN MORNING INTO MONDAY. BUOY 46005 TRENDS THIS EVENING COMPARES
FAVORABLY WITH ENP GUIDANCE SO WILL ADJUST SEAS UP A FOOT OR TWO
ON SUN. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR SUN. TEN FOOT SEAS MAY
OCCASIONALLY REACH THE NEARSHORE WATERS ON SUN BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME.

FURTHER ON...WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS LIKELY
NEEDED FOR THIS TIME...AS WELL AS AN ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING INTO THE 10 TO 12
FT RANGE. CULLEN /26

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT
     SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD
     OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     3 AM PDT SUNDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     11 AM TO 5 PM PDT SUNDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 290357
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
856 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MON AS FLAT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
REGION LATE MONDAY...USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE
AIR MASS...ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WITH VARIABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUN.  AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA ON
MON...FINALLY DRIVING THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ONSHORE AS A COLD
FRONT. EXPECT RAIN TO PUSH ONTO THE COAST MON EVENING...THEN INLAND
OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUE...USHERING
IN A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR MASS. THE FCST MODELS ARE INDICATING
THAT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF POSTFRONTAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUE. THE FCST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO LOOKING DECENTLY UNSTABLE...SO
MAY NEED TO LOOK AT ADDING THUNDER CHANCES TO THE FCST IN THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. AT THE VERY LEAST...IT WILL PROBABLY BE ONE OF THOSE DAYS
WITH PERIODIC HEAVY SHOWERS...SOME LIKELY CONTAINING SMALL HAIL. THE
COLDER AIR SHOULD ALSO DROP SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO CASCADE PASSES WHERE
SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY FALL.  /ROCKPYLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ON TUE...FCST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ONSHORE WED...BRINGING CONTINUED SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW INTO
THU MORNING. THERE IS THEN A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS
MODELED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THU. THIS MAY END UP PROVIDING A
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER THU INTO FRI BEFORE A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE COAST ON FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
FCST CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOWER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. FRI COULD
END UP BEING MOSTLY DRY...BUT THE FCST MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING
TOWARD SPEEDING UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEP TROUGH...WHICH WOULD
BRING MORE RAIN ONSHORE FRI. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z MON. A DRIER AIR
MASS...LESS ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH OVERRIDING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP RADIATIONAL CLOUDS OR FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z MON.
/26

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE A BIT IN
BETWEEN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. NOT MUCH TO COMPARE WITH MODELS
WHICH ARE INDICATING LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. THERE WAS AN ASCAT PASS AROUND NOON TODAY
THAT WAS COMPARABLE TO MODEL FORECAST. WINDS SHOULD EASE
OVERNIGHT.

SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 8 FT TONIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING 8 TO 10 FT
SUN MORNING INTO MONDAY. BUOY 46005 TRENDS THIS EVENING COMPARES
FAVORABLY WITH ENP GUIDANCE SO WILL ADJUST SEAS UP A FOOT OR TWO
ON SUN. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR SUN. TEN FOOT SEAS MAY
OCCASIONALLY REACH THE NEARSHORE WATERS ON SUN BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME.

FURTHER ON...WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS LIKELY
NEEDED FOR THIS TIME...AS WELL AS AN ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING INTO THE 10 TO 12
FT RANGE. CULLEN /26

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT
     SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD
     OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     3 AM PDT SUNDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     11 AM TO 5 PM PDT SUNDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KSEW 290335
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
830 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE
NORTH INTERIOR AND COAST AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN INTO
THE REST OF THE INTERIOR. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
NEXT WEEK WILL MAINTAIN A COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR RETURNS LOOK REMARKABLY LIKE MODEL PRECIPITATION
WITH LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES OVER THE NORTH COAST AND EXTREME NORTH
INTERIOR...EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL CASCADES. THIS IS
FORECAST TO BE THE PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY AND NO CHANGES TO THE
ZONES OR GRIDS ARE ANTICIPATED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE TO 6000 FEET.

ON MONDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...
SPREADING RAIN TO EVERYWHERE. SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND THE SNOW
LEVEL WILL FALL TO 4000 FEET. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN AT ALL
CONSISTENT IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS
PROGRESSIVE AND SPLIT WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES PASSING NEAR
WRN WA. TIMING THESE SYSTEMS IS DIFFICULT AND IT DOESN`T SEEM
PRUDENT TO TRY PICK OUT SHORT BLOCKS OF DRY WEATHER. WILL KEEP THE
CLIMO BROAD BRUSH CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.  MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS A FLAT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHWEST SIDE
OF THE RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA SOUTHWEST
INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST...
ESPECIALLY AT MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.

SKY COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS GENERALLY BKN-OVC BETWEEN
6000-8000 FT WITH HIGHER OVC LAYERS ABOVE. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER
SOMEWHAT TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

KSEA...SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND 6-12 KT. BKN-OVC CEILING SHOULD LOWER
TO AROUND 5000 FT TONIGHT BUT REMAIN VFR THROUGH SUNDAY.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE WILL BE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING WHILE A FRONT EXTENDS FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND SOUTHWEST INTO
THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT RESULTS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA DURING THE PERIOD...
AND THEY SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE INLAND WATERS LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND WESTERN
WASHINGTON LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS MOST OR ALL WATERS. MODERATELY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WESTERLIES...AND POSSIBLY GALES...WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A WESTERLY SWELL OF 10 TO 12 FT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS AS
WELL.   MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 290335
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
830 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE
NORTH INTERIOR AND COAST AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN INTO
THE REST OF THE INTERIOR. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
NEXT WEEK WILL MAINTAIN A COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR RETURNS LOOK REMARKABLY LIKE MODEL PRECIPITATION
WITH LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES OVER THE NORTH COAST AND EXTREME NORTH
INTERIOR...EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL CASCADES. THIS IS
FORECAST TO BE THE PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY AND NO CHANGES TO THE
ZONES OR GRIDS ARE ANTICIPATED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE TO 6000 FEET.

ON MONDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...
SPREADING RAIN TO EVERYWHERE. SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND THE SNOW
LEVEL WILL FALL TO 4000 FEET. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN AT ALL
CONSISTENT IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS
PROGRESSIVE AND SPLIT WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES PASSING NEAR
WRN WA. TIMING THESE SYSTEMS IS DIFFICULT AND IT DOESN`T SEEM
PRUDENT TO TRY PICK OUT SHORT BLOCKS OF DRY WEATHER. WILL KEEP THE
CLIMO BROAD BRUSH CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.  MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS A FLAT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHWEST SIDE
OF THE RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA SOUTHWEST
INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST...
ESPECIALLY AT MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.

SKY COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS GENERALLY BKN-OVC BETWEEN
6000-8000 FT WITH HIGHER OVC LAYERS ABOVE. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER
SOMEWHAT TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

KSEA...SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND 6-12 KT. BKN-OVC CEILING SHOULD LOWER
TO AROUND 5000 FT TONIGHT BUT REMAIN VFR THROUGH SUNDAY.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE WILL BE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING WHILE A FRONT EXTENDS FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND SOUTHWEST INTO
THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT RESULTS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA DURING THE PERIOD...
AND THEY SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE INLAND WATERS LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND WESTERN
WASHINGTON LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS MOST OR ALL WATERS. MODERATELY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WESTERLIES...AND POSSIBLY GALES...WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A WESTERLY SWELL OF 10 TO 12 FT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS AS
WELL.   MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 290335
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
830 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE
NORTH INTERIOR AND COAST AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN INTO
THE REST OF THE INTERIOR. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
NEXT WEEK WILL MAINTAIN A COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR RETURNS LOOK REMARKABLY LIKE MODEL PRECIPITATION
WITH LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES OVER THE NORTH COAST AND EXTREME NORTH
INTERIOR...EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL CASCADES. THIS IS
FORECAST TO BE THE PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY AND NO CHANGES TO THE
ZONES OR GRIDS ARE ANTICIPATED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE TO 6000 FEET.

ON MONDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...
SPREADING RAIN TO EVERYWHERE. SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND THE SNOW
LEVEL WILL FALL TO 4000 FEET. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN AT ALL
CONSISTENT IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS
PROGRESSIVE AND SPLIT WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES PASSING NEAR
WRN WA. TIMING THESE SYSTEMS IS DIFFICULT AND IT DOESN`T SEEM
PRUDENT TO TRY PICK OUT SHORT BLOCKS OF DRY WEATHER. WILL KEEP THE
CLIMO BROAD BRUSH CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.  MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS A FLAT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHWEST SIDE
OF THE RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA SOUTHWEST
INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST...
ESPECIALLY AT MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.

SKY COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS GENERALLY BKN-OVC BETWEEN
6000-8000 FT WITH HIGHER OVC LAYERS ABOVE. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER
SOMEWHAT TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

KSEA...SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND 6-12 KT. BKN-OVC CEILING SHOULD LOWER
TO AROUND 5000 FT TONIGHT BUT REMAIN VFR THROUGH SUNDAY.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE WILL BE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING WHILE A FRONT EXTENDS FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND SOUTHWEST INTO
THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT RESULTS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA DURING THE PERIOD...
AND THEY SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE INLAND WATERS LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND WESTERN
WASHINGTON LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS MOST OR ALL WATERS. MODERATELY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WESTERLIES...AND POSSIBLY GALES...WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A WESTERLY SWELL OF 10 TO 12 FT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS AS
WELL.   MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 290335
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
830 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE
NORTH INTERIOR AND COAST AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN INTO
THE REST OF THE INTERIOR. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
NEXT WEEK WILL MAINTAIN A COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR RETURNS LOOK REMARKABLY LIKE MODEL PRECIPITATION
WITH LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES OVER THE NORTH COAST AND EXTREME NORTH
INTERIOR...EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL CASCADES. THIS IS
FORECAST TO BE THE PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY AND NO CHANGES TO THE
ZONES OR GRIDS ARE ANTICIPATED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE TO 6000 FEET.

ON MONDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...
SPREADING RAIN TO EVERYWHERE. SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND THE SNOW
LEVEL WILL FALL TO 4000 FEET. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN AT ALL
CONSISTENT IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS
PROGRESSIVE AND SPLIT WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES PASSING NEAR
WRN WA. TIMING THESE SYSTEMS IS DIFFICULT AND IT DOESN`T SEEM
PRUDENT TO TRY PICK OUT SHORT BLOCKS OF DRY WEATHER. WILL KEEP THE
CLIMO BROAD BRUSH CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.  MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS A FLAT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHWEST SIDE
OF THE RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA SOUTHWEST
INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST...
ESPECIALLY AT MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.

SKY COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS GENERALLY BKN-OVC BETWEEN
6000-8000 FT WITH HIGHER OVC LAYERS ABOVE. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER
SOMEWHAT TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

KSEA...SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND 6-12 KT. BKN-OVC CEILING SHOULD LOWER
TO AROUND 5000 FT TONIGHT BUT REMAIN VFR THROUGH SUNDAY.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE WILL BE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING WHILE A FRONT EXTENDS FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND SOUTHWEST INTO
THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT RESULTS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA DURING THE PERIOD...
AND THEY SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE INLAND WATERS LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND WESTERN
WASHINGTON LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS MOST OR ALL WATERS. MODERATELY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WESTERLIES...AND POSSIBLY GALES...WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A WESTERLY SWELL OF 10 TO 12 FT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS AS
WELL.   MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KOTX 290318
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
818 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather Sunday and Monday should be mild and relatively dry.
Another fast moving front on Tuesday will bring more showers and
windy conditions. The pattern of unsettled weather will continue
through the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The forecast has been updated for latest wind/sky cover trends.
Overall these changes were very minor.

With the setting sun and loss of daytime heating the lower
atmosphere will continue to stabilize through tonight. Winds early
this evening have decreased with this trend expected to continue
through the night as pressure gradients relax. Otherwise expect
mid and high clouds to continue to pass through the region tonight
as a moist frontal system remains aimed north of the Canadian
border from Vancouver Island into southern British Columbia. These
mid and high clouds are expected to increase overnight...which
should prevent fog formation in the northern valleys...although a
few stray patches can not be ruled out. Radar composites indicate
showers have ended across the area...except near the Cascade crest
where a few showers will remain possible through the night. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Gusty winds as well as isolated showers over the Idaho
Panhandle will subside early this evening as pressure gradients
begin to relax, mixing potential decreases, and the atmosphere
stabilizes. The next system will spread an increase in mid and
high clouds across the area overnight into Sunday. Patchy fog may
develop between 9-15z Sunday for the northern valleys...but should
not impact any of the TAF sites.  JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  58  40  63  43  55 /   0  10  10  10  10  50
Coeur d`Alene  36  58  38  65  41  54 /   0  10  10  10  20  60
Pullman        38  58  41  65  44  52 /   0  10  10  10  30  60
Lewiston       40  64  43  69  46  56 /   0   0   0   0  20  50
Colville       37  60  40  64  41  57 /   0  10  10  10  20  50
Sandpoint      35  56  37  61  38  51 /   0  10  10  10  20  70
Kellogg        36  56  38  63  40  48 /  10  10  10  10  30  70
Moses Lake     39  65  40  68  43  60 /   0  10   0   0  10  20
Wenatchee      42  64  44  68  45  58 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Omak           38  62  39  67  41  60 /  10  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 290318
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
818 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather Sunday and Monday should be mild and relatively dry.
Another fast moving front on Tuesday will bring more showers and
windy conditions. The pattern of unsettled weather will continue
through the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The forecast has been updated for latest wind/sky cover trends.
Overall these changes were very minor.

With the setting sun and loss of daytime heating the lower
atmosphere will continue to stabilize through tonight. Winds early
this evening have decreased with this trend expected to continue
through the night as pressure gradients relax. Otherwise expect
mid and high clouds to continue to pass through the region tonight
as a moist frontal system remains aimed north of the Canadian
border from Vancouver Island into southern British Columbia. These
mid and high clouds are expected to increase overnight...which
should prevent fog formation in the northern valleys...although a
few stray patches can not be ruled out. Radar composites indicate
showers have ended across the area...except near the Cascade crest
where a few showers will remain possible through the night. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Gusty winds as well as isolated showers over the Idaho
Panhandle will subside early this evening as pressure gradients
begin to relax, mixing potential decreases, and the atmosphere
stabilizes. The next system will spread an increase in mid and
high clouds across the area overnight into Sunday. Patchy fog may
develop between 9-15z Sunday for the northern valleys...but should
not impact any of the TAF sites.  JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  58  40  63  43  55 /   0  10  10  10  10  50
Coeur d`Alene  36  58  38  65  41  54 /   0  10  10  10  20  60
Pullman        38  58  41  65  44  52 /   0  10  10  10  30  60
Lewiston       40  64  43  69  46  56 /   0   0   0   0  20  50
Colville       37  60  40  64  41  57 /   0  10  10  10  20  50
Sandpoint      35  56  37  61  38  51 /   0  10  10  10  20  70
Kellogg        36  56  38  63  40  48 /  10  10  10  10  30  70
Moses Lake     39  65  40  68  43  60 /   0  10   0   0  10  20
Wenatchee      42  64  44  68  45  58 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Omak           38  62  39  67  41  60 /  10  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 290318
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
818 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather Sunday and Monday should be mild and relatively dry.
Another fast moving front on Tuesday will bring more showers and
windy conditions. The pattern of unsettled weather will continue
through the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The forecast has been updated for latest wind/sky cover trends.
Overall these changes were very minor.

With the setting sun and loss of daytime heating the lower
atmosphere will continue to stabilize through tonight. Winds early
this evening have decreased with this trend expected to continue
through the night as pressure gradients relax. Otherwise expect
mid and high clouds to continue to pass through the region tonight
as a moist frontal system remains aimed north of the Canadian
border from Vancouver Island into southern British Columbia. These
mid and high clouds are expected to increase overnight...which
should prevent fog formation in the northern valleys...although a
few stray patches can not be ruled out. Radar composites indicate
showers have ended across the area...except near the Cascade crest
where a few showers will remain possible through the night. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Gusty winds as well as isolated showers over the Idaho
Panhandle will subside early this evening as pressure gradients
begin to relax, mixing potential decreases, and the atmosphere
stabilizes. The next system will spread an increase in mid and
high clouds across the area overnight into Sunday. Patchy fog may
develop between 9-15z Sunday for the northern valleys...but should
not impact any of the TAF sites.  JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  58  40  63  43  55 /   0  10  10  10  10  50
Coeur d`Alene  36  58  38  65  41  54 /   0  10  10  10  20  60
Pullman        38  58  41  65  44  52 /   0  10  10  10  30  60
Lewiston       40  64  43  69  46  56 /   0   0   0   0  20  50
Colville       37  60  40  64  41  57 /   0  10  10  10  20  50
Sandpoint      35  56  37  61  38  51 /   0  10  10  10  20  70
Kellogg        36  56  38  63  40  48 /  10  10  10  10  30  70
Moses Lake     39  65  40  68  43  60 /   0  10   0   0  10  20
Wenatchee      42  64  44  68  45  58 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Omak           38  62  39  67  41  60 /  10  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 290318
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
818 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather Sunday and Monday should be mild and relatively dry.
Another fast moving front on Tuesday will bring more showers and
windy conditions. The pattern of unsettled weather will continue
through the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The forecast has been updated for latest wind/sky cover trends.
Overall these changes were very minor.

With the setting sun and loss of daytime heating the lower
atmosphere will continue to stabilize through tonight. Winds early
this evening have decreased with this trend expected to continue
through the night as pressure gradients relax. Otherwise expect
mid and high clouds to continue to pass through the region tonight
as a moist frontal system remains aimed north of the Canadian
border from Vancouver Island into southern British Columbia. These
mid and high clouds are expected to increase overnight...which
should prevent fog formation in the northern valleys...although a
few stray patches can not be ruled out. Radar composites indicate
showers have ended across the area...except near the Cascade crest
where a few showers will remain possible through the night. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Gusty winds as well as isolated showers over the Idaho
Panhandle will subside early this evening as pressure gradients
begin to relax, mixing potential decreases, and the atmosphere
stabilizes. The next system will spread an increase in mid and
high clouds across the area overnight into Sunday. Patchy fog may
develop between 9-15z Sunday for the northern valleys...but should
not impact any of the TAF sites.  JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  58  40  63  43  55 /   0  10  10  10  10  50
Coeur d`Alene  36  58  38  65  41  54 /   0  10  10  10  20  60
Pullman        38  58  41  65  44  52 /   0  10  10  10  30  60
Lewiston       40  64  43  69  46  56 /   0   0   0   0  20  50
Colville       37  60  40  64  41  57 /   0  10  10  10  20  50
Sandpoint      35  56  37  61  38  51 /   0  10  10  10  20  70
Kellogg        36  56  38  63  40  48 /  10  10  10  10  30  70
Moses Lake     39  65  40  68  43  60 /   0  10   0   0  10  20
Wenatchee      42  64  44  68  45  58 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Omak           38  62  39  67  41  60 /  10  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 282333
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
433 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will linger...but quickly end...over the Idaho Panhandle
very early in the evening. The gusty winds will also diminish
significantly. The weather Sunday and Monday should be mild and
relatively dry. Another fast moving front on Tuesday will bring
more showers and windy conditions. The pattern of unsettled
weather will continue through the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sunday: With the rapid exit east of the unstable short-
wave trough that helped to produce showers and very windy wx
across Ern Wa and N Idaho today, we`ll shortly transition into
stable upper ridging overnight. The result will be dry wx,
decreasing winds, and possibly some valley fog. Just offshore is a
warm frontal boundary that will move quickly east through the
region by midday Sunday that will keep skies mostly cloudy for
most towns. As far as pcpn chances with this front, most model
guidance shows very light amnts of rain for mainly NE Wa and N
Idaho coincident with the band of WAA/isentropic ascent. Pass
level snow is possible, but accumulations will be light, if any,
down to around 4500 ft. Confidence levels are low as far as a
patchy light rain reaching the lower elevations such as Spokane.
We have dry fcst attm. bz

Sunday Night through Monday: As remnants of the previous system
continue to push out the region and a ridge pattern begins to
build, the higher terrain of the Cascades and Idaho Panhandle
could receive a rain shower. By Monday, the chance of precip is
near non existent and warm and drier is pushes temperatures a few
degrees higher than the previous days.

...Strong winds Expected Tuesday...

Beginning late Monday, early Tuesday, the ridge begins to
breakdown as a cold front begins to press into the region. This is
expected to bring rain showers for most populated locations in the
region. Snow levels will be above 4500 feet. A combination of the
cooler air aloft, orographic lift, and diurnal surface heating
could produce an isolated thunderstorm in Southeastern Washington
and Central Idaho region but the confidence is very low. The winds
behind the front will be strong. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 MPH
and gusts near 40 MPH are expected in the Columbia Basin.
temperatures are expected to be near the season normals for this
time of year. /JDC

Tuesday night through Saturday...westerly flow in the wake of the
departing cold front will give way to another upper level trough
that will bring another round of precipitation to the Inland
Northwest for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Windy conditions
behind the front will subside overnight. The cold pool aloft will
result in unstable conditions and a couple hundred J/kg of CAPE
will be available for the late afternoon and early evening hours
across the northern zones both Wednesday and Thursday but with
little in the way of a warm front ahead of the trough, it appears
that the atmosphere will be too cold for thunder but favorable for
graupel showers. There will be a very brief break in the unsettled
weather late Thursday or Friday as a transient ridge pops up
between the exiting trough and the next one in line to affect the
Inland Northwest. Models have yet come into agreement on the
timing of the ridge but with lingering instability and westerly
flow, the threat of isolated to scattered upslope showers will
remain for the rising terrain east of the basin. Cold air aloft
will foster instability showers that could bring snow pellets down
to most valley floors. The Pacific trough that will affect the
region over the weekend will be deeper and colder than the mid
week system but timing is again in question. If we manage to get
partial clearing conditions during the overnight hours, there
remains the possibility of sub-freezing temperatures for all but
the lowest valleys but this is a low confidence forecast at this
time. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Gusty winds as well as isolated showers over the Idaho
Panhandle will subside early this evening as pressure gradients
begin to relax, mixing potential decreases, and the atmosphere
stabilizes. The next system will spread an increase in mid and
high clouds across the area overnight into Sunday. Patchy fog may
develop between 9-15z Sunday for the northern valleys...but should
not impact any of the TAF sites.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  58  40  63  43  55 /   0  10  10  10  10  50
Coeur d`Alene  36  58  38  65  41  54 /   0  10  10  10  20  60
Pullman        38  58  41  65  44  52 /   0  10  10  10  30  60
Lewiston       40  64  43  69  46  56 /   0   0   0   0  20  50
Colville       37  60  40  64  41  57 /   0  10  10  10  20  50
Sandpoint      35  56  37  61  38  51 /   0  10  10  10  20  70
Kellogg        36  56  38  63  40  48 /  10  10  10  10  30  70
Moses Lake     39  65  40  68  43  60 /   0  10   0   0  10  20
Wenatchee      42  64  44  68  45  58 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Omak           38  62  39  67  41  60 /  10  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 282333
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
433 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will linger...but quickly end...over the Idaho Panhandle
very early in the evening. The gusty winds will also diminish
significantly. The weather Sunday and Monday should be mild and
relatively dry. Another fast moving front on Tuesday will bring
more showers and windy conditions. The pattern of unsettled
weather will continue through the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sunday: With the rapid exit east of the unstable short-
wave trough that helped to produce showers and very windy wx
across Ern Wa and N Idaho today, we`ll shortly transition into
stable upper ridging overnight. The result will be dry wx,
decreasing winds, and possibly some valley fog. Just offshore is a
warm frontal boundary that will move quickly east through the
region by midday Sunday that will keep skies mostly cloudy for
most towns. As far as pcpn chances with this front, most model
guidance shows very light amnts of rain for mainly NE Wa and N
Idaho coincident with the band of WAA/isentropic ascent. Pass
level snow is possible, but accumulations will be light, if any,
down to around 4500 ft. Confidence levels are low as far as a
patchy light rain reaching the lower elevations such as Spokane.
We have dry fcst attm. bz

Sunday Night through Monday: As remnants of the previous system
continue to push out the region and a ridge pattern begins to
build, the higher terrain of the Cascades and Idaho Panhandle
could receive a rain shower. By Monday, the chance of precip is
near non existent and warm and drier is pushes temperatures a few
degrees higher than the previous days.

...Strong winds Expected Tuesday...

Beginning late Monday, early Tuesday, the ridge begins to
breakdown as a cold front begins to press into the region. This is
expected to bring rain showers for most populated locations in the
region. Snow levels will be above 4500 feet. A combination of the
cooler air aloft, orographic lift, and diurnal surface heating
could produce an isolated thunderstorm in Southeastern Washington
and Central Idaho region but the confidence is very low. The winds
behind the front will be strong. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 MPH
and gusts near 40 MPH are expected in the Columbia Basin.
temperatures are expected to be near the season normals for this
time of year. /JDC

Tuesday night through Saturday...westerly flow in the wake of the
departing cold front will give way to another upper level trough
that will bring another round of precipitation to the Inland
Northwest for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Windy conditions
behind the front will subside overnight. The cold pool aloft will
result in unstable conditions and a couple hundred J/kg of CAPE
will be available for the late afternoon and early evening hours
across the northern zones both Wednesday and Thursday but with
little in the way of a warm front ahead of the trough, it appears
that the atmosphere will be too cold for thunder but favorable for
graupel showers. There will be a very brief break in the unsettled
weather late Thursday or Friday as a transient ridge pops up
between the exiting trough and the next one in line to affect the
Inland Northwest. Models have yet come into agreement on the
timing of the ridge but with lingering instability and westerly
flow, the threat of isolated to scattered upslope showers will
remain for the rising terrain east of the basin. Cold air aloft
will foster instability showers that could bring snow pellets down
to most valley floors. The Pacific trough that will affect the
region over the weekend will be deeper and colder than the mid
week system but timing is again in question. If we manage to get
partial clearing conditions during the overnight hours, there
remains the possibility of sub-freezing temperatures for all but
the lowest valleys but this is a low confidence forecast at this
time. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Gusty winds as well as isolated showers over the Idaho
Panhandle will subside early this evening as pressure gradients
begin to relax, mixing potential decreases, and the atmosphere
stabilizes. The next system will spread an increase in mid and
high clouds across the area overnight into Sunday. Patchy fog may
develop between 9-15z Sunday for the northern valleys...but should
not impact any of the TAF sites.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  58  40  63  43  55 /   0  10  10  10  10  50
Coeur d`Alene  36  58  38  65  41  54 /   0  10  10  10  20  60
Pullman        38  58  41  65  44  52 /   0  10  10  10  30  60
Lewiston       40  64  43  69  46  56 /   0   0   0   0  20  50
Colville       37  60  40  64  41  57 /   0  10  10  10  20  50
Sandpoint      35  56  37  61  38  51 /   0  10  10  10  20  70
Kellogg        36  56  38  63  40  48 /  10  10  10  10  30  70
Moses Lake     39  65  40  68  43  60 /   0  10   0   0  10  20
Wenatchee      42  64  44  68  45  58 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Omak           38  62  39  67  41  60 /  10  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 282333
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
433 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will linger...but quickly end...over the Idaho Panhandle
very early in the evening. The gusty winds will also diminish
significantly. The weather Sunday and Monday should be mild and
relatively dry. Another fast moving front on Tuesday will bring
more showers and windy conditions. The pattern of unsettled
weather will continue through the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sunday: With the rapid exit east of the unstable short-
wave trough that helped to produce showers and very windy wx
across Ern Wa and N Idaho today, we`ll shortly transition into
stable upper ridging overnight. The result will be dry wx,
decreasing winds, and possibly some valley fog. Just offshore is a
warm frontal boundary that will move quickly east through the
region by midday Sunday that will keep skies mostly cloudy for
most towns. As far as pcpn chances with this front, most model
guidance shows very light amnts of rain for mainly NE Wa and N
Idaho coincident with the band of WAA/isentropic ascent. Pass
level snow is possible, but accumulations will be light, if any,
down to around 4500 ft. Confidence levels are low as far as a
patchy light rain reaching the lower elevations such as Spokane.
We have dry fcst attm. bz

Sunday Night through Monday: As remnants of the previous system
continue to push out the region and a ridge pattern begins to
build, the higher terrain of the Cascades and Idaho Panhandle
could receive a rain shower. By Monday, the chance of precip is
near non existent and warm and drier is pushes temperatures a few
degrees higher than the previous days.

...Strong winds Expected Tuesday...

Beginning late Monday, early Tuesday, the ridge begins to
breakdown as a cold front begins to press into the region. This is
expected to bring rain showers for most populated locations in the
region. Snow levels will be above 4500 feet. A combination of the
cooler air aloft, orographic lift, and diurnal surface heating
could produce an isolated thunderstorm in Southeastern Washington
and Central Idaho region but the confidence is very low. The winds
behind the front will be strong. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 MPH
and gusts near 40 MPH are expected in the Columbia Basin.
temperatures are expected to be near the season normals for this
time of year. /JDC

Tuesday night through Saturday...westerly flow in the wake of the
departing cold front will give way to another upper level trough
that will bring another round of precipitation to the Inland
Northwest for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Windy conditions
behind the front will subside overnight. The cold pool aloft will
result in unstable conditions and a couple hundred J/kg of CAPE
will be available for the late afternoon and early evening hours
across the northern zones both Wednesday and Thursday but with
little in the way of a warm front ahead of the trough, it appears
that the atmosphere will be too cold for thunder but favorable for
graupel showers. There will be a very brief break in the unsettled
weather late Thursday or Friday as a transient ridge pops up
between the exiting trough and the next one in line to affect the
Inland Northwest. Models have yet come into agreement on the
timing of the ridge but with lingering instability and westerly
flow, the threat of isolated to scattered upslope showers will
remain for the rising terrain east of the basin. Cold air aloft
will foster instability showers that could bring snow pellets down
to most valley floors. The Pacific trough that will affect the
region over the weekend will be deeper and colder than the mid
week system but timing is again in question. If we manage to get
partial clearing conditions during the overnight hours, there
remains the possibility of sub-freezing temperatures for all but
the lowest valleys but this is a low confidence forecast at this
time. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Gusty winds as well as isolated showers over the Idaho
Panhandle will subside early this evening as pressure gradients
begin to relax, mixing potential decreases, and the atmosphere
stabilizes. The next system will spread an increase in mid and
high clouds across the area overnight into Sunday. Patchy fog may
develop between 9-15z Sunday for the northern valleys...but should
not impact any of the TAF sites.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  58  40  63  43  55 /   0  10  10  10  10  50
Coeur d`Alene  36  58  38  65  41  54 /   0  10  10  10  20  60
Pullman        38  58  41  65  44  52 /   0  10  10  10  30  60
Lewiston       40  64  43  69  46  56 /   0   0   0   0  20  50
Colville       37  60  40  64  41  57 /   0  10  10  10  20  50
Sandpoint      35  56  37  61  38  51 /   0  10  10  10  20  70
Kellogg        36  56  38  63  40  48 /  10  10  10  10  30  70
Moses Lake     39  65  40  68  43  60 /   0  10   0   0  10  20
Wenatchee      42  64  44  68  45  58 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Omak           38  62  39  67  41  60 /  10  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 282333
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
433 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will linger...but quickly end...over the Idaho Panhandle
very early in the evening. The gusty winds will also diminish
significantly. The weather Sunday and Monday should be mild and
relatively dry. Another fast moving front on Tuesday will bring
more showers and windy conditions. The pattern of unsettled
weather will continue through the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sunday: With the rapid exit east of the unstable short-
wave trough that helped to produce showers and very windy wx
across Ern Wa and N Idaho today, we`ll shortly transition into
stable upper ridging overnight. The result will be dry wx,
decreasing winds, and possibly some valley fog. Just offshore is a
warm frontal boundary that will move quickly east through the
region by midday Sunday that will keep skies mostly cloudy for
most towns. As far as pcpn chances with this front, most model
guidance shows very light amnts of rain for mainly NE Wa and N
Idaho coincident with the band of WAA/isentropic ascent. Pass
level snow is possible, but accumulations will be light, if any,
down to around 4500 ft. Confidence levels are low as far as a
patchy light rain reaching the lower elevations such as Spokane.
We have dry fcst attm. bz

Sunday Night through Monday: As remnants of the previous system
continue to push out the region and a ridge pattern begins to
build, the higher terrain of the Cascades and Idaho Panhandle
could receive a rain shower. By Monday, the chance of precip is
near non existent and warm and drier is pushes temperatures a few
degrees higher than the previous days.

...Strong winds Expected Tuesday...

Beginning late Monday, early Tuesday, the ridge begins to
breakdown as a cold front begins to press into the region. This is
expected to bring rain showers for most populated locations in the
region. Snow levels will be above 4500 feet. A combination of the
cooler air aloft, orographic lift, and diurnal surface heating
could produce an isolated thunderstorm in Southeastern Washington
and Central Idaho region but the confidence is very low. The winds
behind the front will be strong. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 MPH
and gusts near 40 MPH are expected in the Columbia Basin.
temperatures are expected to be near the season normals for this
time of year. /JDC

Tuesday night through Saturday...westerly flow in the wake of the
departing cold front will give way to another upper level trough
that will bring another round of precipitation to the Inland
Northwest for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Windy conditions
behind the front will subside overnight. The cold pool aloft will
result in unstable conditions and a couple hundred J/kg of CAPE
will be available for the late afternoon and early evening hours
across the northern zones both Wednesday and Thursday but with
little in the way of a warm front ahead of the trough, it appears
that the atmosphere will be too cold for thunder but favorable for
graupel showers. There will be a very brief break in the unsettled
weather late Thursday or Friday as a transient ridge pops up
between the exiting trough and the next one in line to affect the
Inland Northwest. Models have yet come into agreement on the
timing of the ridge but with lingering instability and westerly
flow, the threat of isolated to scattered upslope showers will
remain for the rising terrain east of the basin. Cold air aloft
will foster instability showers that could bring snow pellets down
to most valley floors. The Pacific trough that will affect the
region over the weekend will be deeper and colder than the mid
week system but timing is again in question. If we manage to get
partial clearing conditions during the overnight hours, there
remains the possibility of sub-freezing temperatures for all but
the lowest valleys but this is a low confidence forecast at this
time. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Gusty winds as well as isolated showers over the Idaho
Panhandle will subside early this evening as pressure gradients
begin to relax, mixing potential decreases, and the atmosphere
stabilizes. The next system will spread an increase in mid and
high clouds across the area overnight into Sunday. Patchy fog may
develop between 9-15z Sunday for the northern valleys...but should
not impact any of the TAF sites.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  58  40  63  43  55 /   0  10  10  10  10  50
Coeur d`Alene  36  58  38  65  41  54 /   0  10  10  10  20  60
Pullman        38  58  41  65  44  52 /   0  10  10  10  30  60
Lewiston       40  64  43  69  46  56 /   0   0   0   0  20  50
Colville       37  60  40  64  41  57 /   0  10  10  10  20  50
Sandpoint      35  56  37  61  38  51 /   0  10  10  10  20  70
Kellogg        36  56  38  63  40  48 /  10  10  10  10  30  70
Moses Lake     39  65  40  68  43  60 /   0  10   0   0  10  20
Wenatchee      42  64  44  68  45  58 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Omak           38  62  39  67  41  60 /  10  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 282333
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
433 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will linger...but quickly end...over the Idaho Panhandle
very early in the evening. The gusty winds will also diminish
significantly. The weather Sunday and Monday should be mild and
relatively dry. Another fast moving front on Tuesday will bring
more showers and windy conditions. The pattern of unsettled
weather will continue through the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sunday: With the rapid exit east of the unstable short-
wave trough that helped to produce showers and very windy wx
across Ern Wa and N Idaho today, we`ll shortly transition into
stable upper ridging overnight. The result will be dry wx,
decreasing winds, and possibly some valley fog. Just offshore is a
warm frontal boundary that will move quickly east through the
region by midday Sunday that will keep skies mostly cloudy for
most towns. As far as pcpn chances with this front, most model
guidance shows very light amnts of rain for mainly NE Wa and N
Idaho coincident with the band of WAA/isentropic ascent. Pass
level snow is possible, but accumulations will be light, if any,
down to around 4500 ft. Confidence levels are low as far as a
patchy light rain reaching the lower elevations such as Spokane.
We have dry fcst attm. bz

Sunday Night through Monday: As remnants of the previous system
continue to push out the region and a ridge pattern begins to
build, the higher terrain of the Cascades and Idaho Panhandle
could receive a rain shower. By Monday, the chance of precip is
near non existent and warm and drier is pushes temperatures a few
degrees higher than the previous days.

...Strong winds Expected Tuesday...

Beginning late Monday, early Tuesday, the ridge begins to
breakdown as a cold front begins to press into the region. This is
expected to bring rain showers for most populated locations in the
region. Snow levels will be above 4500 feet. A combination of the
cooler air aloft, orographic lift, and diurnal surface heating
could produce an isolated thunderstorm in Southeastern Washington
and Central Idaho region but the confidence is very low. The winds
behind the front will be strong. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 MPH
and gusts near 40 MPH are expected in the Columbia Basin.
temperatures are expected to be near the season normals for this
time of year. /JDC

Tuesday night through Saturday...westerly flow in the wake of the
departing cold front will give way to another upper level trough
that will bring another round of precipitation to the Inland
Northwest for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Windy conditions
behind the front will subside overnight. The cold pool aloft will
result in unstable conditions and a couple hundred J/kg of CAPE
will be available for the late afternoon and early evening hours
across the northern zones both Wednesday and Thursday but with
little in the way of a warm front ahead of the trough, it appears
that the atmosphere will be too cold for thunder but favorable for
graupel showers. There will be a very brief break in the unsettled
weather late Thursday or Friday as a transient ridge pops up
between the exiting trough and the next one in line to affect the
Inland Northwest. Models have yet come into agreement on the
timing of the ridge but with lingering instability and westerly
flow, the threat of isolated to scattered upslope showers will
remain for the rising terrain east of the basin. Cold air aloft
will foster instability showers that could bring snow pellets down
to most valley floors. The Pacific trough that will affect the
region over the weekend will be deeper and colder than the mid
week system but timing is again in question. If we manage to get
partial clearing conditions during the overnight hours, there
remains the possibility of sub-freezing temperatures for all but
the lowest valleys but this is a low confidence forecast at this
time. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Gusty winds as well as isolated showers over the Idaho
Panhandle will subside early this evening as pressure gradients
begin to relax, mixing potential decreases, and the atmosphere
stabilizes. The next system will spread an increase in mid and
high clouds across the area overnight into Sunday. Patchy fog may
develop between 9-15z Sunday for the northern valleys...but should
not impact any of the TAF sites.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  58  40  63  43  55 /   0  10  10  10  10  50
Coeur d`Alene  36  58  38  65  41  54 /   0  10  10  10  20  60
Pullman        38  58  41  65  44  52 /   0  10  10  10  30  60
Lewiston       40  64  43  69  46  56 /   0   0   0   0  20  50
Colville       37  60  40  64  41  57 /   0  10  10  10  20  50
Sandpoint      35  56  37  61  38  51 /   0  10  10  10  20  70
Kellogg        36  56  38  63  40  48 /  10  10  10  10  30  70
Moses Lake     39  65  40  68  43  60 /   0  10   0   0  10  20
Wenatchee      42  64  44  68  45  58 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Omak           38  62  39  67  41  60 /  10  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 282333
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
433 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will linger...but quickly end...over the Idaho Panhandle
very early in the evening. The gusty winds will also diminish
significantly. The weather Sunday and Monday should be mild and
relatively dry. Another fast moving front on Tuesday will bring
more showers and windy conditions. The pattern of unsettled
weather will continue through the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sunday: With the rapid exit east of the unstable short-
wave trough that helped to produce showers and very windy wx
across Ern Wa and N Idaho today, we`ll shortly transition into
stable upper ridging overnight. The result will be dry wx,
decreasing winds, and possibly some valley fog. Just offshore is a
warm frontal boundary that will move quickly east through the
region by midday Sunday that will keep skies mostly cloudy for
most towns. As far as pcpn chances with this front, most model
guidance shows very light amnts of rain for mainly NE Wa and N
Idaho coincident with the band of WAA/isentropic ascent. Pass
level snow is possible, but accumulations will be light, if any,
down to around 4500 ft. Confidence levels are low as far as a
patchy light rain reaching the lower elevations such as Spokane.
We have dry fcst attm. bz

Sunday Night through Monday: As remnants of the previous system
continue to push out the region and a ridge pattern begins to
build, the higher terrain of the Cascades and Idaho Panhandle
could receive a rain shower. By Monday, the chance of precip is
near non existent and warm and drier is pushes temperatures a few
degrees higher than the previous days.

...Strong winds Expected Tuesday...

Beginning late Monday, early Tuesday, the ridge begins to
breakdown as a cold front begins to press into the region. This is
expected to bring rain showers for most populated locations in the
region. Snow levels will be above 4500 feet. A combination of the
cooler air aloft, orographic lift, and diurnal surface heating
could produce an isolated thunderstorm in Southeastern Washington
and Central Idaho region but the confidence is very low. The winds
behind the front will be strong. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 MPH
and gusts near 40 MPH are expected in the Columbia Basin.
temperatures are expected to be near the season normals for this
time of year. /JDC

Tuesday night through Saturday...westerly flow in the wake of the
departing cold front will give way to another upper level trough
that will bring another round of precipitation to the Inland
Northwest for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Windy conditions
behind the front will subside overnight. The cold pool aloft will
result in unstable conditions and a couple hundred J/kg of CAPE
will be available for the late afternoon and early evening hours
across the northern zones both Wednesday and Thursday but with
little in the way of a warm front ahead of the trough, it appears
that the atmosphere will be too cold for thunder but favorable for
graupel showers. There will be a very brief break in the unsettled
weather late Thursday or Friday as a transient ridge pops up
between the exiting trough and the next one in line to affect the
Inland Northwest. Models have yet come into agreement on the
timing of the ridge but with lingering instability and westerly
flow, the threat of isolated to scattered upslope showers will
remain for the rising terrain east of the basin. Cold air aloft
will foster instability showers that could bring snow pellets down
to most valley floors. The Pacific trough that will affect the
region over the weekend will be deeper and colder than the mid
week system but timing is again in question. If we manage to get
partial clearing conditions during the overnight hours, there
remains the possibility of sub-freezing temperatures for all but
the lowest valleys but this is a low confidence forecast at this
time. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Gusty winds as well as isolated showers over the Idaho
Panhandle will subside early this evening as pressure gradients
begin to relax, mixing potential decreases, and the atmosphere
stabilizes. The next system will spread an increase in mid and
high clouds across the area overnight into Sunday. Patchy fog may
develop between 9-15z Sunday for the northern valleys...but should
not impact any of the TAF sites.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  58  40  63  43  55 /   0  10  10  10  10  50
Coeur d`Alene  36  58  38  65  41  54 /   0  10  10  10  20  60
Pullman        38  58  41  65  44  52 /   0  10  10  10  30  60
Lewiston       40  64  43  69  46  56 /   0   0   0   0  20  50
Colville       37  60  40  64  41  57 /   0  10  10  10  20  50
Sandpoint      35  56  37  61  38  51 /   0  10  10  10  20  70
Kellogg        36  56  38  63  40  48 /  10  10  10  10  30  70
Moses Lake     39  65  40  68  43  60 /   0  10   0   0  10  20
Wenatchee      42  64  44  68  45  58 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Omak           38  62  39  67  41  60 /  10  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 282203
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
300 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND
COAST RANGE BUY WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND EVENTUALLY END LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A MOIST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SIT
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON THIS
WEEKEND...LEAVING US TO ENJOY MILD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MON
AS FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SWING THROUGH AS A COLD FRONT MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW LEVELS LOWERING DOWN TO THE
CASCADE PASSES. A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THEN APPEARS TO BE ON
TAP FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS...PERIODIC
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE COOL POST FRONTAL AIR MASS THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE S WASHINGTON AND FAR N OREGON CASCADES
AND COAST RANGE. BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY...THE SHOWERS ARE BECOMING
NOTICEABLY LESS NUMEROUS AND LOWER TOPPED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS
THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE. EXPECT SHOWERS TO END COMPLETELY
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND AND ALSO HIGH CIRRUS STREAMING IN
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT.

AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
WEEKEND...FOCUSING AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ON
VANCOUVER ISLAND AND FAR NW WASHINGTON. THIS WILL LEAVE US TO ENJOY
MILD AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF MON. THE FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT LIGHT RAIN MAY CLIP THE S WASHINGTON AND FAR
N OREGON COAST AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION ON SUN AND MON...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE NW PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME
DECENT SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA ON
MON...FINALLY DRIVING THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ONSHORE AS A COLD
FRONT. EXPECT RAIN TO PUSH ONTO THE COAST MON EVENING...THEN INLAND
OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUE...USHERING
IN A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR MASS. THE FCST MODELS ARE INDICATING
THAT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF POSTFRONTAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUE. THE FCST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO LOOKING DECENTLY UNSTABLE...SO
MAY NEED TO LOOK AT ADDING THUNDER CHANCES TO THE FCST IN THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. AT THE VERY LEAST...IT WILL PROBABLY BE ONE OF THOSE DAYS
WITH PERIODIC HEAVY SHOWERS...SOME LIKELY CONTAINING SMALL HAIL. THE
COLDER AIR SHOULD ALSO DROP SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO THE CASCADE
PASSES...WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY FALL. PYLE


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ON TUE...FCST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ONSHORE WED...BRINGING CONTINUED SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW INTO
THU MORNING. THERE IS THEN A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS
MODELED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THU. THIS MAY END UP PROVIDING A
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER THU INTO FRI BEFORE A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE COAST ON FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
FCST CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOWER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. FRI COULD
END UP BEING MOSTLY DRY...BUT THE FCST MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING
TOWARD SPEEDING UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEP TROUGH...WHICH WOULD
BRING MORE RAIN ONSHORE FRI. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...JUST A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING THIS AFTERNOON OVER SW
WASHINGTON AND ALSO IN THE CASCADES. VFR CONDITIONS AT THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CIGS AND SCT CUMULUS WITH BASES
AROUND 3000 FT. MAY OCCASIONALLY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP WITH
THESE...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONTINUES THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING OVER THE AREA. DEWPOINTS A BIT LOWER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL EASE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALONG WITH AT LEAST A BKN HIGH CLOUD DECK
OVERHEAD. THUS...THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE MOST FOG DEVELOPMENT. ONE
EXCEPTION MAY BE DOWN TOWARDS KEUG WHERE HIGH CLOUDS MAY NOT BE
AS THICK/PREVALENT...THOUGH EVEN THEN IT MAY BE A STRUGGLE TO
COOL ENOUGH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CIGS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
SHOULD DECREASE AND SCATTER THIS EVENING. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT AND THESE SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE LATE. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE A BIT IN
BETWEEN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND NOON TODAY
INDICATED WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS AROUND 18 KT NEAR
THE BOUNDARY OF THE OUTER WATERS. AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES A BIT
FURTHER...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
STRENGTH GUSTS. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WITH THE AREA OF CONCERN N OF CANNON
BEACH AND GENERALLY BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE. GUSTS TO 25 KT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO EARLY SUN MORNING CAN BE EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 15 KT OR LESS.

SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 8 TO 9 FT TONIGHT...BEFORE POSSIBLY
INCREASING TO 10 FT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. SOMEWHAT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENT OF TIMING OF 10 FT SEAS SO HOLDING
OFF ON ADVISORY FOR SEAS AT THIS POINT...BUT SUSPECT THAT IT WILL
BE NECESSARY FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN WATERS. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS LIKELY NEEDED FOR THIS
TIME...AS WELL AS AN ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING INTO THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 11 PM
     THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 282140
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE
NORTH INTERIOR AND COAST AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT
WILL REACH WESTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN BACK INTO
THE REST OF THE INTERIOR. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
NEXT WEEK WILL MAINTAIN A COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS INTERIOR WRN WA WITH
JUST A FEW WEAK DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ON RADAR THIS AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A THICK MASS CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
PACIFIC...SO AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
THE KLGX COASTAL RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF STEADIER RAINFALL MOVING ONTO
THE N COAST. MODELS INDICATE A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
WRN WA TONIGHT AND STALL MAINLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MOST OF THIS RAINFALL WILL SKIRT THE N
COAST...OLYMPICS...STRAIT...AND FAR N INTERIOR. PUGET SOUND TO THE
SW INTERIOR WILL PROBABLY STAY MOSTLY DRY ALTHOUGH SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THE GFS40 LOOKS TO
AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF WITH THE DRIER NAM-12 FAVORED WHICH KEEPS THE
PUGET SOUND REGION SWD GENERALLY DRY.

HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH DEEPENS
OFFSHORE. THE COLD FRONT LURKING OFFSHORE WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH
WRN WA MONDAY NIGHT...A LITTLE QUICKER THAN SOME PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
SHOWED. LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR
THE FRONT AND TRAILING UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS SHOULD MAKE THE LOW OR MID 60S AROUND PUGET SOUND BUT HIGHS
WILL COME DOWN A GOOD 10 DEGREES ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN AT ALL CONSISTENT IN THE EXTENDED
RANGE. THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS PROGRESSIVE AND SPLIT WITH A SERIES
OF WEAK SHORT WAVES PASSING NEAR WRN WA. TIMING THESE SYSTEMS IS
DIFFICULT AND IT DOESN`T SEEM PRUDENT TO TRY PICK OUT SHORT BLOCKS
OF DRY WEATHER. WILL KEEP THE CLIMO BROAD BRUSH CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST.  MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...THE FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER W WA AT 21Z WILL SLIDE
OVER E WA BY 12Z AS A WARM FRONT MOVES OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND.
MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA...AND WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY MOIST FROM THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

THE LOWER AIR MASS OVER W WA WAS SOMEWHAT MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE
AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF VFR STRATOCUMULUS. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE JUST OFFSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING WARM
FRONT WAS BEGINNING TO REACH NW WA AND WILL COVER MAINLY THE N TWO
THIRDS OF WA WITH CIGS BKN-OVC050 AND HIGHER FROM AROUND 00Z TO
BEYOND 12Z. PRESSURE FALLS OVER SOUTHERN B.C. WILL ALLOW GUSTY S
WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT.

KSEA...VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE TERMINAL THROUGH 12Z. MOISTURE
FROM A WARM FRONT HEADED TOWARD B.C. WILL SPREAD OVER THE TERMINAL
AS CIGS BKN-OVC050 AND HIGHER. SURFACE WINDS BE S 12G20KT THROUGH
ABOUT 00Z THEN WEAKEN TO S 5-10KT OVERNIGHT. KAM

&&

.MARINE...THE SMALL WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER W WA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE DOMINANT
FEATURE WILL BE THE WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND
TONIGHT. PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE B.C. COAST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT
WILL ALLOW MODERATE S FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER WA WATERS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SCA ARE UP FOR THE COAST AND FOR ALL INLAND WATERS EXCEPT
FOR THE CENTRAL STRAIT.

THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS W WA MONDAY EVENING...THEN STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEPICTED ON THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM STRONG ENOUGH FOR
GALES...SIMILAR TO THE COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT...BUT THE WRF-GFS HOLDS
WINDS IN THE SCA RANGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ALSO SEEM TO DELAY THE
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW JUST A BIT WHILE THE CANADIAN IS FASTER.
I WILL STICK WITH THE WRF-GFS TIMING FOR NOW BUT STRONG W FLOW
THROUGH THE STRAIT COULD BEGIN EARLIER MONDAY EVENING...AND
COULD REACH GALE FORCE. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML














000
FXUS66 KSEW 282140
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE
NORTH INTERIOR AND COAST AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT
WILL REACH WESTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN BACK INTO
THE REST OF THE INTERIOR. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
NEXT WEEK WILL MAINTAIN A COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS INTERIOR WRN WA WITH
JUST A FEW WEAK DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ON RADAR THIS AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A THICK MASS CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
PACIFIC...SO AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
THE KLGX COASTAL RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF STEADIER RAINFALL MOVING ONTO
THE N COAST. MODELS INDICATE A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
WRN WA TONIGHT AND STALL MAINLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MOST OF THIS RAINFALL WILL SKIRT THE N
COAST...OLYMPICS...STRAIT...AND FAR N INTERIOR. PUGET SOUND TO THE
SW INTERIOR WILL PROBABLY STAY MOSTLY DRY ALTHOUGH SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THE GFS40 LOOKS TO
AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF WITH THE DRIER NAM-12 FAVORED WHICH KEEPS THE
PUGET SOUND REGION SWD GENERALLY DRY.

HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH DEEPENS
OFFSHORE. THE COLD FRONT LURKING OFFSHORE WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH
WRN WA MONDAY NIGHT...A LITTLE QUICKER THAN SOME PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
SHOWED. LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR
THE FRONT AND TRAILING UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS SHOULD MAKE THE LOW OR MID 60S AROUND PUGET SOUND BUT HIGHS
WILL COME DOWN A GOOD 10 DEGREES ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN AT ALL CONSISTENT IN THE EXTENDED
RANGE. THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS PROGRESSIVE AND SPLIT WITH A SERIES
OF WEAK SHORT WAVES PASSING NEAR WRN WA. TIMING THESE SYSTEMS IS
DIFFICULT AND IT DOESN`T SEEM PRUDENT TO TRY PICK OUT SHORT BLOCKS
OF DRY WEATHER. WILL KEEP THE CLIMO BROAD BRUSH CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST.  MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...THE FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER W WA AT 21Z WILL SLIDE
OVER E WA BY 12Z AS A WARM FRONT MOVES OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND.
MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA...AND WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY MOIST FROM THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

THE LOWER AIR MASS OVER W WA WAS SOMEWHAT MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE
AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF VFR STRATOCUMULUS. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE JUST OFFSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING WARM
FRONT WAS BEGINNING TO REACH NW WA AND WILL COVER MAINLY THE N TWO
THIRDS OF WA WITH CIGS BKN-OVC050 AND HIGHER FROM AROUND 00Z TO
BEYOND 12Z. PRESSURE FALLS OVER SOUTHERN B.C. WILL ALLOW GUSTY S
WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT.

KSEA...VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE TERMINAL THROUGH 12Z. MOISTURE
FROM A WARM FRONT HEADED TOWARD B.C. WILL SPREAD OVER THE TERMINAL
AS CIGS BKN-OVC050 AND HIGHER. SURFACE WINDS BE S 12G20KT THROUGH
ABOUT 00Z THEN WEAKEN TO S 5-10KT OVERNIGHT. KAM

&&

.MARINE...THE SMALL WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER W WA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE DOMINANT
FEATURE WILL BE THE WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND
TONIGHT. PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE B.C. COAST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT
WILL ALLOW MODERATE S FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER WA WATERS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SCA ARE UP FOR THE COAST AND FOR ALL INLAND WATERS EXCEPT
FOR THE CENTRAL STRAIT.

THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS W WA MONDAY EVENING...THEN STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEPICTED ON THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM STRONG ENOUGH FOR
GALES...SIMILAR TO THE COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT...BUT THE WRF-GFS HOLDS
WINDS IN THE SCA RANGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ALSO SEEM TO DELAY THE
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW JUST A BIT WHILE THE CANADIAN IS FASTER.
I WILL STICK WITH THE WRF-GFS TIMING FOR NOW BUT STRONG W FLOW
THROUGH THE STRAIT COULD BEGIN EARLIER MONDAY EVENING...AND
COULD REACH GALE FORCE. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML














000
FXUS66 KSEW 282140
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE
NORTH INTERIOR AND COAST AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT
WILL REACH WESTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN BACK INTO
THE REST OF THE INTERIOR. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
NEXT WEEK WILL MAINTAIN A COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS INTERIOR WRN WA WITH
JUST A FEW WEAK DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ON RADAR THIS AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A THICK MASS CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
PACIFIC...SO AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
THE KLGX COASTAL RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF STEADIER RAINFALL MOVING ONTO
THE N COAST. MODELS INDICATE A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
WRN WA TONIGHT AND STALL MAINLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MOST OF THIS RAINFALL WILL SKIRT THE N
COAST...OLYMPICS...STRAIT...AND FAR N INTERIOR. PUGET SOUND TO THE
SW INTERIOR WILL PROBABLY STAY MOSTLY DRY ALTHOUGH SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THE GFS40 LOOKS TO
AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF WITH THE DRIER NAM-12 FAVORED WHICH KEEPS THE
PUGET SOUND REGION SWD GENERALLY DRY.

HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH DEEPENS
OFFSHORE. THE COLD FRONT LURKING OFFSHORE WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH
WRN WA MONDAY NIGHT...A LITTLE QUICKER THAN SOME PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
SHOWED. LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR
THE FRONT AND TRAILING UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS SHOULD MAKE THE LOW OR MID 60S AROUND PUGET SOUND BUT HIGHS
WILL COME DOWN A GOOD 10 DEGREES ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN AT ALL CONSISTENT IN THE EXTENDED
RANGE. THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS PROGRESSIVE AND SPLIT WITH A SERIES
OF WEAK SHORT WAVES PASSING NEAR WRN WA. TIMING THESE SYSTEMS IS
DIFFICULT AND IT DOESN`T SEEM PRUDENT TO TRY PICK OUT SHORT BLOCKS
OF DRY WEATHER. WILL KEEP THE CLIMO BROAD BRUSH CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST.  MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...THE FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER W WA AT 21Z WILL SLIDE
OVER E WA BY 12Z AS A WARM FRONT MOVES OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND.
MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA...AND WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY MOIST FROM THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

THE LOWER AIR MASS OVER W WA WAS SOMEWHAT MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE
AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF VFR STRATOCUMULUS. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE JUST OFFSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING WARM
FRONT WAS BEGINNING TO REACH NW WA AND WILL COVER MAINLY THE N TWO
THIRDS OF WA WITH CIGS BKN-OVC050 AND HIGHER FROM AROUND 00Z TO
BEYOND 12Z. PRESSURE FALLS OVER SOUTHERN B.C. WILL ALLOW GUSTY S
WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT.

KSEA...VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE TERMINAL THROUGH 12Z. MOISTURE
FROM A WARM FRONT HEADED TOWARD B.C. WILL SPREAD OVER THE TERMINAL
AS CIGS BKN-OVC050 AND HIGHER. SURFACE WINDS BE S 12G20KT THROUGH
ABOUT 00Z THEN WEAKEN TO S 5-10KT OVERNIGHT. KAM

&&

.MARINE...THE SMALL WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER W WA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE DOMINANT
FEATURE WILL BE THE WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND
TONIGHT. PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE B.C. COAST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT
WILL ALLOW MODERATE S FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER WA WATERS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SCA ARE UP FOR THE COAST AND FOR ALL INLAND WATERS EXCEPT
FOR THE CENTRAL STRAIT.

THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS W WA MONDAY EVENING...THEN STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEPICTED ON THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM STRONG ENOUGH FOR
GALES...SIMILAR TO THE COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT...BUT THE WRF-GFS HOLDS
WINDS IN THE SCA RANGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ALSO SEEM TO DELAY THE
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW JUST A BIT WHILE THE CANADIAN IS FASTER.
I WILL STICK WITH THE WRF-GFS TIMING FOR NOW BUT STRONG W FLOW
THROUGH THE STRAIT COULD BEGIN EARLIER MONDAY EVENING...AND
COULD REACH GALE FORCE. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML














000
FXUS66 KSEW 282140
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE
NORTH INTERIOR AND COAST AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT
WILL REACH WESTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN BACK INTO
THE REST OF THE INTERIOR. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
NEXT WEEK WILL MAINTAIN A COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS INTERIOR WRN WA WITH
JUST A FEW WEAK DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ON RADAR THIS AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A THICK MASS CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
PACIFIC...SO AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
THE KLGX COASTAL RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF STEADIER RAINFALL MOVING ONTO
THE N COAST. MODELS INDICATE A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
WRN WA TONIGHT AND STALL MAINLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MOST OF THIS RAINFALL WILL SKIRT THE N
COAST...OLYMPICS...STRAIT...AND FAR N INTERIOR. PUGET SOUND TO THE
SW INTERIOR WILL PROBABLY STAY MOSTLY DRY ALTHOUGH SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THE GFS40 LOOKS TO
AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF WITH THE DRIER NAM-12 FAVORED WHICH KEEPS THE
PUGET SOUND REGION SWD GENERALLY DRY.

HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH DEEPENS
OFFSHORE. THE COLD FRONT LURKING OFFSHORE WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH
WRN WA MONDAY NIGHT...A LITTLE QUICKER THAN SOME PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
SHOWED. LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR
THE FRONT AND TRAILING UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS SHOULD MAKE THE LOW OR MID 60S AROUND PUGET SOUND BUT HIGHS
WILL COME DOWN A GOOD 10 DEGREES ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN AT ALL CONSISTENT IN THE EXTENDED
RANGE. THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS PROGRESSIVE AND SPLIT WITH A SERIES
OF WEAK SHORT WAVES PASSING NEAR WRN WA. TIMING THESE SYSTEMS IS
DIFFICULT AND IT DOESN`T SEEM PRUDENT TO TRY PICK OUT SHORT BLOCKS
OF DRY WEATHER. WILL KEEP THE CLIMO BROAD BRUSH CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST.  MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...THE FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER W WA AT 21Z WILL SLIDE
OVER E WA BY 12Z AS A WARM FRONT MOVES OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND.
MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA...AND WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY MOIST FROM THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

THE LOWER AIR MASS OVER W WA WAS SOMEWHAT MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE
AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF VFR STRATOCUMULUS. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE JUST OFFSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING WARM
FRONT WAS BEGINNING TO REACH NW WA AND WILL COVER MAINLY THE N TWO
THIRDS OF WA WITH CIGS BKN-OVC050 AND HIGHER FROM AROUND 00Z TO
BEYOND 12Z. PRESSURE FALLS OVER SOUTHERN B.C. WILL ALLOW GUSTY S
WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT.

KSEA...VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE TERMINAL THROUGH 12Z. MOISTURE
FROM A WARM FRONT HEADED TOWARD B.C. WILL SPREAD OVER THE TERMINAL
AS CIGS BKN-OVC050 AND HIGHER. SURFACE WINDS BE S 12G20KT THROUGH
ABOUT 00Z THEN WEAKEN TO S 5-10KT OVERNIGHT. KAM

&&

.MARINE...THE SMALL WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER W WA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE DOMINANT
FEATURE WILL BE THE WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND
TONIGHT. PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE B.C. COAST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT
WILL ALLOW MODERATE S FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER WA WATERS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SCA ARE UP FOR THE COAST AND FOR ALL INLAND WATERS EXCEPT
FOR THE CENTRAL STRAIT.

THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS W WA MONDAY EVENING...THEN STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEPICTED ON THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM STRONG ENOUGH FOR
GALES...SIMILAR TO THE COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT...BUT THE WRF-GFS HOLDS
WINDS IN THE SCA RANGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ALSO SEEM TO DELAY THE
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW JUST A BIT WHILE THE CANADIAN IS FASTER.
I WILL STICK WITH THE WRF-GFS TIMING FOR NOW BUT STRONG W FLOW
THROUGH THE STRAIT COULD BEGIN EARLIER MONDAY EVENING...AND
COULD REACH GALE FORCE. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML














000
FXUS66 KOTX 282132
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
232 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will linger...but quickly end...over the Idaho Panhandle
very early in the evening. The gusty winds will also diminish
significantly. The weather Sunday and Monday should be mild and
relatively dry. Another fast moving front on Tuesday will bring
more showers and windy conditions. The pattern of unsettled
weather will continue through the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sunday: With the rapid exit east of the unstable short-
wave trough that helped to produce showers and very windy wx
across Ern Wa and N Idaho today, we`ll shortly transition into
stable upper ridging overnight. The result will be dry wx,
decreasing winds, and possibly some valley fog. Just offshore is a
warm frontal boundary that will move quickly east through the
region by midday Sunday that will keep skies mostly cloudy for
most towns. As far as pcpn chances with this front, most model
guidance shows very light amnts of rain for mainly NE Wa and N
Idaho coincident with the band of WAA/isentropic ascent. Pass
level snow is possible, but accumulations will be light, if any,
down to around 4500 ft. Confidence levels are low as far as a
patchy light rain reaching the lower elevations such as Spokane.
We have dry fcst attm. bz

Sunday Night through Monday: As remnants of the previous system
continue to push out the region and a ridge pattern begins to
build, the higher terrain of the Cascades and Idaho Panhandle
could receive a rain shower. By Monday, the chance of precip is
near non existent and warm and drier is pushes temperatures a few
degrees higher than the previous days.

...Strong winds Expected Tuesday...

Beginning late Monday, early Tuesday, the ridge begins to
breakdown as a cold front begins to press into the region. This is
expected to bring rain showers for most populated locations in the
region. Snow levels will be above 4500 feet. A combination of the
cooler air aloft, orographic lift, and diurnal surface heating
could produce an isolated thunderstorm in Southeastern Washington
and Central Idaho region but the confidence is very low. The winds
behind the front will be strong. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 MPH
and gusts near 40 MPH are expected in the Columbia Basin.
temperatures are expected to be near the season normals for this
time of year. /JDC

Tuesday night through Saturday...westerly flow in the wake of the
departing cold front will give way to another upper level trough
that will bring another round of precipitation to the Inland
Northwest for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Windy conditions
behind the front will subside overnight. The cold pool aloft will
result in unstable conditions and a couple hundred J/kg of CAPE
will be available for the late afternoon and early evening hours
across the northern zones both Wednesday and Thursday but with
little in the way of a warm front ahead of the trough, it appears
that the atmosphere will be too cold for thunder but favorable for
graupel showers. There will be a very brief break in the unsettled
weather late Thursday or Friday as a transient ridge pops up
between the exiting trough and the next one in line to affect the
Inland Northwest. Models have yet come into agreement on the
timing of the ridge but with lingering instability and westerly
flow, the threat of isolated to scattered upslope showers will
remain for the rising terrain east of the basin. Cold air aloft
will foster instability showers that could bring snow pellets down
to most valley floors. The Pacific trough that will affect the
region over the weekend will be deeper and colder than the mid
week system but timing is again in question. If we manage to get
partial clearing conditions during the overnight hours, there
remains the possibility of sub-freezing temperatures for all but
the lowest valleys but this is a low confidence forecast at this
time. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Strong post-frontal winds will impact the TAF sites
through mid to late afternoon today. West winds sustained 20 to
25kts with gusts up to 35kts are expected with the highest gusts
at KGEG and KPUW. Rain over the Idaho Panhandle will continue to
decrease. A broken cumulus deck will likely bring a 2500 to 4000
deck back to Coeur D`Alene, Sandpoint, and possibly Spokane Felts
by after 18-20z. Winds will diminish quickly with the setting
sun.bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  58  40  63  43  55 /   0  10  10  10  10  50
Coeur d`Alene  36  58  38  65  41  54 /   0  10  10  10  20  60
Pullman        38  58  41  65  44  52 /   0  10  10  10  30  60
Lewiston       40  64  43  69  46  56 /   0   0   0   0  20  50
Colville       37  60  40  64  41  57 /   0  10  10  10  20  50
Sandpoint      35  56  37  61  38  51 /   0  10  10  10  20  70
Kellogg        36  56  38  63  40  48 /  10  10  10  10  30  70
Moses Lake     39  65  40  68  43  60 /   0  10   0   0  10  20
Wenatchee      42  64  44  68  45  58 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Omak           38  62  39  67  41  60 /  10  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 282132
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
232 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will linger...but quickly end...over the Idaho Panhandle
very early in the evening. The gusty winds will also diminish
significantly. The weather Sunday and Monday should be mild and
relatively dry. Another fast moving front on Tuesday will bring
more showers and windy conditions. The pattern of unsettled
weather will continue through the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sunday: With the rapid exit east of the unstable short-
wave trough that helped to produce showers and very windy wx
across Ern Wa and N Idaho today, we`ll shortly transition into
stable upper ridging overnight. The result will be dry wx,
decreasing winds, and possibly some valley fog. Just offshore is a
warm frontal boundary that will move quickly east through the
region by midday Sunday that will keep skies mostly cloudy for
most towns. As far as pcpn chances with this front, most model
guidance shows very light amnts of rain for mainly NE Wa and N
Idaho coincident with the band of WAA/isentropic ascent. Pass
level snow is possible, but accumulations will be light, if any,
down to around 4500 ft. Confidence levels are low as far as a
patchy light rain reaching the lower elevations such as Spokane.
We have dry fcst attm. bz

Sunday Night through Monday: As remnants of the previous system
continue to push out the region and a ridge pattern begins to
build, the higher terrain of the Cascades and Idaho Panhandle
could receive a rain shower. By Monday, the chance of precip is
near non existent and warm and drier is pushes temperatures a few
degrees higher than the previous days.

...Strong winds Expected Tuesday...

Beginning late Monday, early Tuesday, the ridge begins to
breakdown as a cold front begins to press into the region. This is
expected to bring rain showers for most populated locations in the
region. Snow levels will be above 4500 feet. A combination of the
cooler air aloft, orographic lift, and diurnal surface heating
could produce an isolated thunderstorm in Southeastern Washington
and Central Idaho region but the confidence is very low. The winds
behind the front will be strong. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 MPH
and gusts near 40 MPH are expected in the Columbia Basin.
temperatures are expected to be near the season normals for this
time of year. /JDC

Tuesday night through Saturday...westerly flow in the wake of the
departing cold front will give way to another upper level trough
that will bring another round of precipitation to the Inland
Northwest for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Windy conditions
behind the front will subside overnight. The cold pool aloft will
result in unstable conditions and a couple hundred J/kg of CAPE
will be available for the late afternoon and early evening hours
across the northern zones both Wednesday and Thursday but with
little in the way of a warm front ahead of the trough, it appears
that the atmosphere will be too cold for thunder but favorable for
graupel showers. There will be a very brief break in the unsettled
weather late Thursday or Friday as a transient ridge pops up
between the exiting trough and the next one in line to affect the
Inland Northwest. Models have yet come into agreement on the
timing of the ridge but with lingering instability and westerly
flow, the threat of isolated to scattered upslope showers will
remain for the rising terrain east of the basin. Cold air aloft
will foster instability showers that could bring snow pellets down
to most valley floors. The Pacific trough that will affect the
region over the weekend will be deeper and colder than the mid
week system but timing is again in question. If we manage to get
partial clearing conditions during the overnight hours, there
remains the possibility of sub-freezing temperatures for all but
the lowest valleys but this is a low confidence forecast at this
time. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Strong post-frontal winds will impact the TAF sites
through mid to late afternoon today. West winds sustained 20 to
25kts with gusts up to 35kts are expected with the highest gusts
at KGEG and KPUW. Rain over the Idaho Panhandle will continue to
decrease. A broken cumulus deck will likely bring a 2500 to 4000
deck back to Coeur D`Alene, Sandpoint, and possibly Spokane Felts
by after 18-20z. Winds will diminish quickly with the setting
sun.bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  58  40  63  43  55 /   0  10  10  10  10  50
Coeur d`Alene  36  58  38  65  41  54 /   0  10  10  10  20  60
Pullman        38  58  41  65  44  52 /   0  10  10  10  30  60
Lewiston       40  64  43  69  46  56 /   0   0   0   0  20  50
Colville       37  60  40  64  41  57 /   0  10  10  10  20  50
Sandpoint      35  56  37  61  38  51 /   0  10  10  10  20  70
Kellogg        36  56  38  63  40  48 /  10  10  10  10  30  70
Moses Lake     39  65  40  68  43  60 /   0  10   0   0  10  20
Wenatchee      42  64  44  68  45  58 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Omak           38  62  39  67  41  60 /  10  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 282132
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
232 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will linger...but quickly end...over the Idaho Panhandle
very early in the evening. The gusty winds will also diminish
significantly. The weather Sunday and Monday should be mild and
relatively dry. Another fast moving front on Tuesday will bring
more showers and windy conditions. The pattern of unsettled
weather will continue through the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sunday: With the rapid exit east of the unstable short-
wave trough that helped to produce showers and very windy wx
across Ern Wa and N Idaho today, we`ll shortly transition into
stable upper ridging overnight. The result will be dry wx,
decreasing winds, and possibly some valley fog. Just offshore is a
warm frontal boundary that will move quickly east through the
region by midday Sunday that will keep skies mostly cloudy for
most towns. As far as pcpn chances with this front, most model
guidance shows very light amnts of rain for mainly NE Wa and N
Idaho coincident with the band of WAA/isentropic ascent. Pass
level snow is possible, but accumulations will be light, if any,
down to around 4500 ft. Confidence levels are low as far as a
patchy light rain reaching the lower elevations such as Spokane.
We have dry fcst attm. bz

Sunday Night through Monday: As remnants of the previous system
continue to push out the region and a ridge pattern begins to
build, the higher terrain of the Cascades and Idaho Panhandle
could receive a rain shower. By Monday, the chance of precip is
near non existent and warm and drier is pushes temperatures a few
degrees higher than the previous days.

...Strong winds Expected Tuesday...

Beginning late Monday, early Tuesday, the ridge begins to
breakdown as a cold front begins to press into the region. This is
expected to bring rain showers for most populated locations in the
region. Snow levels will be above 4500 feet. A combination of the
cooler air aloft, orographic lift, and diurnal surface heating
could produce an isolated thunderstorm in Southeastern Washington
and Central Idaho region but the confidence is very low. The winds
behind the front will be strong. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 MPH
and gusts near 40 MPH are expected in the Columbia Basin.
temperatures are expected to be near the season normals for this
time of year. /JDC

Tuesday night through Saturday...westerly flow in the wake of the
departing cold front will give way to another upper level trough
that will bring another round of precipitation to the Inland
Northwest for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Windy conditions
behind the front will subside overnight. The cold pool aloft will
result in unstable conditions and a couple hundred J/kg of CAPE
will be available for the late afternoon and early evening hours
across the northern zones both Wednesday and Thursday but with
little in the way of a warm front ahead of the trough, it appears
that the atmosphere will be too cold for thunder but favorable for
graupel showers. There will be a very brief break in the unsettled
weather late Thursday or Friday as a transient ridge pops up
between the exiting trough and the next one in line to affect the
Inland Northwest. Models have yet come into agreement on the
timing of the ridge but with lingering instability and westerly
flow, the threat of isolated to scattered upslope showers will
remain for the rising terrain east of the basin. Cold air aloft
will foster instability showers that could bring snow pellets down
to most valley floors. The Pacific trough that will affect the
region over the weekend will be deeper and colder than the mid
week system but timing is again in question. If we manage to get
partial clearing conditions during the overnight hours, there
remains the possibility of sub-freezing temperatures for all but
the lowest valleys but this is a low confidence forecast at this
time. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Strong post-frontal winds will impact the TAF sites
through mid to late afternoon today. West winds sustained 20 to
25kts with gusts up to 35kts are expected with the highest gusts
at KGEG and KPUW. Rain over the Idaho Panhandle will continue to
decrease. A broken cumulus deck will likely bring a 2500 to 4000
deck back to Coeur D`Alene, Sandpoint, and possibly Spokane Felts
by after 18-20z. Winds will diminish quickly with the setting
sun.bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  58  40  63  43  55 /   0  10  10  10  10  50
Coeur d`Alene  36  58  38  65  41  54 /   0  10  10  10  20  60
Pullman        38  58  41  65  44  52 /   0  10  10  10  30  60
Lewiston       40  64  43  69  46  56 /   0   0   0   0  20  50
Colville       37  60  40  64  41  57 /   0  10  10  10  20  50
Sandpoint      35  56  37  61  38  51 /   0  10  10  10  20  70
Kellogg        36  56  38  63  40  48 /  10  10  10  10  30  70
Moses Lake     39  65  40  68  43  60 /   0  10   0   0  10  20
Wenatchee      42  64  44  68  45  58 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Omak           38  62  39  67  41  60 /  10  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 282132
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
232 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will linger...but quickly end...over the Idaho Panhandle
very early in the evening. The gusty winds will also diminish
significantly. The weather Sunday and Monday should be mild and
relatively dry. Another fast moving front on Tuesday will bring
more showers and windy conditions. The pattern of unsettled
weather will continue through the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sunday: With the rapid exit east of the unstable short-
wave trough that helped to produce showers and very windy wx
across Ern Wa and N Idaho today, we`ll shortly transition into
stable upper ridging overnight. The result will be dry wx,
decreasing winds, and possibly some valley fog. Just offshore is a
warm frontal boundary that will move quickly east through the
region by midday Sunday that will keep skies mostly cloudy for
most towns. As far as pcpn chances with this front, most model
guidance shows very light amnts of rain for mainly NE Wa and N
Idaho coincident with the band of WAA/isentropic ascent. Pass
level snow is possible, but accumulations will be light, if any,
down to around 4500 ft. Confidence levels are low as far as a
patchy light rain reaching the lower elevations such as Spokane.
We have dry fcst attm. bz

Sunday Night through Monday: As remnants of the previous system
continue to push out the region and a ridge pattern begins to
build, the higher terrain of the Cascades and Idaho Panhandle
could receive a rain shower. By Monday, the chance of precip is
near non existent and warm and drier is pushes temperatures a few
degrees higher than the previous days.

...Strong winds Expected Tuesday...

Beginning late Monday, early Tuesday, the ridge begins to
breakdown as a cold front begins to press into the region. This is
expected to bring rain showers for most populated locations in the
region. Snow levels will be above 4500 feet. A combination of the
cooler air aloft, orographic lift, and diurnal surface heating
could produce an isolated thunderstorm in Southeastern Washington
and Central Idaho region but the confidence is very low. The winds
behind the front will be strong. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 MPH
and gusts near 40 MPH are expected in the Columbia Basin.
temperatures are expected to be near the season normals for this
time of year. /JDC

Tuesday night through Saturday...westerly flow in the wake of the
departing cold front will give way to another upper level trough
that will bring another round of precipitation to the Inland
Northwest for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Windy conditions
behind the front will subside overnight. The cold pool aloft will
result in unstable conditions and a couple hundred J/kg of CAPE
will be available for the late afternoon and early evening hours
across the northern zones both Wednesday and Thursday but with
little in the way of a warm front ahead of the trough, it appears
that the atmosphere will be too cold for thunder but favorable for
graupel showers. There will be a very brief break in the unsettled
weather late Thursday or Friday as a transient ridge pops up
between the exiting trough and the next one in line to affect the
Inland Northwest. Models have yet come into agreement on the
timing of the ridge but with lingering instability and westerly
flow, the threat of isolated to scattered upslope showers will
remain for the rising terrain east of the basin. Cold air aloft
will foster instability showers that could bring snow pellets down
to most valley floors. The Pacific trough that will affect the
region over the weekend will be deeper and colder than the mid
week system but timing is again in question. If we manage to get
partial clearing conditions during the overnight hours, there
remains the possibility of sub-freezing temperatures for all but
the lowest valleys but this is a low confidence forecast at this
time. /Kelch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Strong post-frontal winds will impact the TAF sites
through mid to late afternoon today. West winds sustained 20 to
25kts with gusts up to 35kts are expected with the highest gusts
at KGEG and KPUW. Rain over the Idaho Panhandle will continue to
decrease. A broken cumulus deck will likely bring a 2500 to 4000
deck back to Coeur D`Alene, Sandpoint, and possibly Spokane Felts
by after 18-20z. Winds will diminish quickly with the setting
sun.bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        38  58  40  63  43  55 /   0  10  10  10  10  50
Coeur d`Alene  36  58  38  65  41  54 /   0  10  10  10  20  60
Pullman        38  58  41  65  44  52 /   0  10  10  10  30  60
Lewiston       40  64  43  69  46  56 /   0   0   0   0  20  50
Colville       37  60  40  64  41  57 /   0  10  10  10  20  50
Sandpoint      35  56  37  61  38  51 /   0  10  10  10  20  70
Kellogg        36  56  38  63  40  48 /  10  10  10  10  30  70
Moses Lake     39  65  40  68  43  60 /   0  10   0   0  10  20
Wenatchee      42  64  44  68  45  58 /   0  10  10  10  10  20
Omak           38  62  39  67  41  60 /  10  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 281842
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1142 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be quite windy, especially in the morning. West winds
of 15 to 25 mph with gusts over 30 mph will be common throughout
the Inland Northwest with gusts as high as 45 mph over the
Palouse. Showers will linger over the Idaho Panhandle through
early this afternoon. The weather Sunday and Monday should be mild
and relatively dry. Another fast moving front on Tuesday will
bring more showers, wind, and onset to another few days of
unsettled weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today: The most significant changes to the fcst was to
extend the wind advsy for a few more hours for the Palouse and
Pomeroy regions. The Spokane region is also experience low-end
advsy thresholds (30 mph with gusts to 45 mph) in places, but
we`ve decided to handle this with NOWCASTS given that these winds
are not expected to remain strong for an extended length of time.
Also... SCHWEITZER Mtn will still experience gusts to 50 mph
slowly decreasing during the day. The good news is that the vort
max helping to produce these winds and mountain/valley rain and
snow showers is rapidly translating east through the Idaho
Panhandle and into Montana. By late afternoon height-rises aloft
of 100m will significantly help to end the pcpn as the depth of
the unstable lapse rates rapidly shrinks. However... shallow
instability and upslope forcing into the Id Panhandle will produce
lingering showers into the first part of this evening. For
tonight... valley fog seems likely across the NE Wa and N Idaho
Panhandle zones...in a favorable environment clearing skies and
decreasing winds tonight under the strengthening upper ridge.bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Strong post-frontal winds will impact the TAF sites
through mid to late afternoon today. West winds sustained 20 to
25kts with gusts up to 35kts are expected with the highest gusts
at KGEG and KPUW. Rain over the Idaho Panhandle will continue to
decrease. A broken cumulus deck will likely bring a 2500 to 4000
deck back to Coeur D`Alene, Sandpoint, and possibly Spokane Felts
by after 18-20z. Winds will diminish quickly with the setting
sun.bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        59  38  58  40  64  42 /  10   0  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  36  58  39  64  40 /  10   0  10  10  10  20
Pullman        57  38  58  41  65  42 /  10   0  10  10  10  30
Lewiston       67  40  64  42  69  44 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Colville       63  37  60  39  64  39 /   0  10  20  10  10  20
Sandpoint      56  35  56  36  61  39 /  20   0  10  10  10  20
Kellogg        52  36  56  38  62  38 /  40  10  10  10  10  30
Moses Lake     68  39  65  40  69  44 /   0   0  10   0   0  10
Wenatchee      66  42  64  45  68  43 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Omak           67  38  62  39  67  40 /   0  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 281842
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1142 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be quite windy, especially in the morning. West winds
of 15 to 25 mph with gusts over 30 mph will be common throughout
the Inland Northwest with gusts as high as 45 mph over the
Palouse. Showers will linger over the Idaho Panhandle through
early this afternoon. The weather Sunday and Monday should be mild
and relatively dry. Another fast moving front on Tuesday will
bring more showers, wind, and onset to another few days of
unsettled weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today: The most significant changes to the fcst was to
extend the wind advsy for a few more hours for the Palouse and
Pomeroy regions. The Spokane region is also experience low-end
advsy thresholds (30 mph with gusts to 45 mph) in places, but
we`ve decided to handle this with NOWCASTS given that these winds
are not expected to remain strong for an extended length of time.
Also... SCHWEITZER Mtn will still experience gusts to 50 mph
slowly decreasing during the day. The good news is that the vort
max helping to produce these winds and mountain/valley rain and
snow showers is rapidly translating east through the Idaho
Panhandle and into Montana. By late afternoon height-rises aloft
of 100m will significantly help to end the pcpn as the depth of
the unstable lapse rates rapidly shrinks. However... shallow
instability and upslope forcing into the Id Panhandle will produce
lingering showers into the first part of this evening. For
tonight... valley fog seems likely across the NE Wa and N Idaho
Panhandle zones...in a favorable environment clearing skies and
decreasing winds tonight under the strengthening upper ridge.bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Strong post-frontal winds will impact the TAF sites
through mid to late afternoon today. West winds sustained 20 to
25kts with gusts up to 35kts are expected with the highest gusts
at KGEG and KPUW. Rain over the Idaho Panhandle will continue to
decrease. A broken cumulus deck will likely bring a 2500 to 4000
deck back to Coeur D`Alene, Sandpoint, and possibly Spokane Felts
by after 18-20z. Winds will diminish quickly with the setting
sun.bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        59  38  58  40  64  42 /  10   0  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  36  58  39  64  40 /  10   0  10  10  10  20
Pullman        57  38  58  41  65  42 /  10   0  10  10  10  30
Lewiston       67  40  64  42  69  44 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Colville       63  37  60  39  64  39 /   0  10  20  10  10  20
Sandpoint      56  35  56  36  61  39 /  20   0  10  10  10  20
Kellogg        52  36  56  38  62  38 /  40  10  10  10  10  30
Moses Lake     68  39  65  40  69  44 /   0   0  10   0   0  10
Wenatchee      66  42  64  45  68  43 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Omak           67  38  62  39  67  40 /   0  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 281842
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1142 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be quite windy, especially in the morning. West winds
of 15 to 25 mph with gusts over 30 mph will be common throughout
the Inland Northwest with gusts as high as 45 mph over the
Palouse. Showers will linger over the Idaho Panhandle through
early this afternoon. The weather Sunday and Monday should be mild
and relatively dry. Another fast moving front on Tuesday will
bring more showers, wind, and onset to another few days of
unsettled weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today: The most significant changes to the fcst was to
extend the wind advsy for a few more hours for the Palouse and
Pomeroy regions. The Spokane region is also experience low-end
advsy thresholds (30 mph with gusts to 45 mph) in places, but
we`ve decided to handle this with NOWCASTS given that these winds
are not expected to remain strong for an extended length of time.
Also... SCHWEITZER Mtn will still experience gusts to 50 mph
slowly decreasing during the day. The good news is that the vort
max helping to produce these winds and mountain/valley rain and
snow showers is rapidly translating east through the Idaho
Panhandle and into Montana. By late afternoon height-rises aloft
of 100m will significantly help to end the pcpn as the depth of
the unstable lapse rates rapidly shrinks. However... shallow
instability and upslope forcing into the Id Panhandle will produce
lingering showers into the first part of this evening. For
tonight... valley fog seems likely across the NE Wa and N Idaho
Panhandle zones...in a favorable environment clearing skies and
decreasing winds tonight under the strengthening upper ridge.bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Strong post-frontal winds will impact the TAF sites
through mid to late afternoon today. West winds sustained 20 to
25kts with gusts up to 35kts are expected with the highest gusts
at KGEG and KPUW. Rain over the Idaho Panhandle will continue to
decrease. A broken cumulus deck will likely bring a 2500 to 4000
deck back to Coeur D`Alene, Sandpoint, and possibly Spokane Felts
by after 18-20z. Winds will diminish quickly with the setting
sun.bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        59  38  58  40  64  42 /  10   0  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  36  58  39  64  40 /  10   0  10  10  10  20
Pullman        57  38  58  41  65  42 /  10   0  10  10  10  30
Lewiston       67  40  64  42  69  44 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Colville       63  37  60  39  64  39 /   0  10  20  10  10  20
Sandpoint      56  35  56  36  61  39 /  20   0  10  10  10  20
Kellogg        52  36  56  38  62  38 /  40  10  10  10  10  30
Moses Lake     68  39  65  40  69  44 /   0   0  10   0   0  10
Wenatchee      66  42  64  45  68  43 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Omak           67  38  62  39  67  40 /   0  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 281842
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1142 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be quite windy, especially in the morning. West winds
of 15 to 25 mph with gusts over 30 mph will be common throughout
the Inland Northwest with gusts as high as 45 mph over the
Palouse. Showers will linger over the Idaho Panhandle through
early this afternoon. The weather Sunday and Monday should be mild
and relatively dry. Another fast moving front on Tuesday will
bring more showers, wind, and onset to another few days of
unsettled weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today: The most significant changes to the fcst was to
extend the wind advsy for a few more hours for the Palouse and
Pomeroy regions. The Spokane region is also experience low-end
advsy thresholds (30 mph with gusts to 45 mph) in places, but
we`ve decided to handle this with NOWCASTS given that these winds
are not expected to remain strong for an extended length of time.
Also... SCHWEITZER Mtn will still experience gusts to 50 mph
slowly decreasing during the day. The good news is that the vort
max helping to produce these winds and mountain/valley rain and
snow showers is rapidly translating east through the Idaho
Panhandle and into Montana. By late afternoon height-rises aloft
of 100m will significantly help to end the pcpn as the depth of
the unstable lapse rates rapidly shrinks. However... shallow
instability and upslope forcing into the Id Panhandle will produce
lingering showers into the first part of this evening. For
tonight... valley fog seems likely across the NE Wa and N Idaho
Panhandle zones...in a favorable environment clearing skies and
decreasing winds tonight under the strengthening upper ridge.bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Strong post-frontal winds will impact the TAF sites
through mid to late afternoon today. West winds sustained 20 to
25kts with gusts up to 35kts are expected with the highest gusts
at KGEG and KPUW. Rain over the Idaho Panhandle will continue to
decrease. A broken cumulus deck will likely bring a 2500 to 4000
deck back to Coeur D`Alene, Sandpoint, and possibly Spokane Felts
by after 18-20z. Winds will diminish quickly with the setting
sun.bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        59  38  58  40  64  42 /  10   0  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  36  58  39  64  40 /  10   0  10  10  10  20
Pullman        57  38  58  41  65  42 /  10   0  10  10  10  30
Lewiston       67  40  64  42  69  44 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Colville       63  37  60  39  64  39 /   0  10  20  10  10  20
Sandpoint      56  35  56  36  61  39 /  20   0  10  10  10  20
Kellogg        52  36  56  38  62  38 /  40  10  10  10  10  30
Moses Lake     68  39  65  40  69  44 /   0   0  10   0   0  10
Wenatchee      66  42  64  45  68  43 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Omak           67  38  62  39  67  40 /   0  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 281842
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1142 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be quite windy, especially in the morning. West winds
of 15 to 25 mph with gusts over 30 mph will be common throughout
the Inland Northwest with gusts as high as 45 mph over the
Palouse. Showers will linger over the Idaho Panhandle through
early this afternoon. The weather Sunday and Monday should be mild
and relatively dry. Another fast moving front on Tuesday will
bring more showers, wind, and onset to another few days of
unsettled weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today: The most significant changes to the fcst was to
extend the wind advsy for a few more hours for the Palouse and
Pomeroy regions. The Spokane region is also experience low-end
advsy thresholds (30 mph with gusts to 45 mph) in places, but
we`ve decided to handle this with NOWCASTS given that these winds
are not expected to remain strong for an extended length of time.
Also... SCHWEITZER Mtn will still experience gusts to 50 mph
slowly decreasing during the day. The good news is that the vort
max helping to produce these winds and mountain/valley rain and
snow showers is rapidly translating east through the Idaho
Panhandle and into Montana. By late afternoon height-rises aloft
of 100m will significantly help to end the pcpn as the depth of
the unstable lapse rates rapidly shrinks. However... shallow
instability and upslope forcing into the Id Panhandle will produce
lingering showers into the first part of this evening. For
tonight... valley fog seems likely across the NE Wa and N Idaho
Panhandle zones...in a favorable environment clearing skies and
decreasing winds tonight under the strengthening upper ridge.bz

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Strong post-frontal winds will impact the TAF sites
through mid to late afternoon today. West winds sustained 20 to
25kts with gusts up to 35kts are expected with the highest gusts
at KGEG and KPUW. Rain over the Idaho Panhandle will continue to
decrease. A broken cumulus deck will likely bring a 2500 to 4000
deck back to Coeur D`Alene, Sandpoint, and possibly Spokane Felts
by after 18-20z. Winds will diminish quickly with the setting
sun.bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        59  38  58  40  64  42 /  10   0  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  36  58  39  64  40 /  10   0  10  10  10  20
Pullman        57  38  58  41  65  42 /  10   0  10  10  10  30
Lewiston       67  40  64  42  69  44 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Colville       63  37  60  39  64  39 /   0  10  20  10  10  20
Sandpoint      56  35  56  36  61  39 /  20   0  10  10  10  20
Kellogg        52  36  56  38  62  38 /  40  10  10  10  10  30
Moses Lake     68  39  65  40  69  44 /   0   0  10   0   0  10
Wenatchee      66  42  64  45  68  43 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Omak           67  38  62  39  67  40 /   0  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KSEW 281623
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
915 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE TODAY BEHIND A FRONT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WEATHER SYSTEMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH WESTERN
WASHINGTON LATE MONDAY WITH RAIN. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE STREAMING INTO WRN WA THIS
MORNING WITH BREEZY WINDS. GALES OCCURRED IN THE STRAIT EARLIER AND
THIS OUTFLOW WILL MEET UP WITH THE S-SW FLOW IN PUGET SOUND
PRODUCING A CONVERGENCE ZONE TODAY. WESTERLY FLOW AT 850 MPH SHOULD
KEEP MOST THE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED ALONG THE W SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS OF FAR NRN KING AND SNOHOMISH COUNTIES.
THE NAM-12 HOLDS ONTO THE CONVERGENCE ZONE THROUGH THE DAY WHILE THE
HRRR IS LESS ENTHUSIASTIC. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS IT
WILL HANG AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. JUST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. SNOW LEVELS FELL OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...DOWN
TO ABOUT 4500 FEET NORTH AND 5000 FEET SOUTH. MOUNT BAKER PICKED UP
A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW AS DID HURRICANE RIDGE.  NOT
SURPRISINGLY...IT REMAINED TOO WARM IN THE PASSES FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW. IT WAS ALSO BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LAST NIGHT WITH
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH INTO THIS MORNING. GRADIENTS ARE EASING WITH
KPDX-KBLI DOWN TO +6 MB FROM ABOUT +8 MB AT THE PEAK EARLIER. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH THE DAY.

THE TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT WITH NEXT SYSTEM
DIRECTING MOIST W-SW FLOW INTO MAINLY BRITISH COLUMBIA. 06Z/12Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER N WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. NEWEST MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION
CONFINED TO MAINLY THE N COAST/OLYMPICS AND FAR N INTERIOR. PUGET
SOUND SWD LOOKS TO STAY MOSTLY DRY AND A TOUCH WARMER WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW 60S.

A BROAD TROUGH WILL DIG OFFSHORE DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THIS STILL APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL. MERCER

.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR SHOWERY WEATHER AT TIMES.
MODELS SUGGEST AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH HOW THINGS WILL PROGRESS AFTER
THAT. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER W WA WILL SLIDE OVER E WA
TONIGHT. MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. THE
PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE THAT FORMED OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED OVER THE
CASCADES AND IS DISSIPATING.

WEAKENING W ONSHORE FLOW HAS LEFT THE LOWER AIR MASS OVER W WA
SOMEWHAT MOIST...BUT THE MODERATE W FLOW HAS ALSO CAUSED CLEARING IN
THE LEE OF THE OLYMPICS AND VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE W FLOW IS ALSO
PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES AND OLYMPICS. THE LOWER AIR MASS IS ALSO WEAKLY UNSTABLE
AND AREAS OF CUMULUS OR STRATOCUMULUS WITH BASES 020-040 WILL BE
PRESENT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH 22Z.

A WARM FRONT APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER MAINLY THE N TWO THIRDS OF W WA BEGINNING AFTER 22Z.

KSEA...MVFR CIGS BKN018-030 ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z...LIFTING TO
SCT-BKN040 OR BETTER AFTER 21Z. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS NO LONGER A
FACTOR. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN S 14G24KT THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WITH A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AS 00Z APPROACHES. KAM

&&

.MARINE...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW EARLIER THIS MORNING IS WEAKENING AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER W WA...BUT PER RACE ROCKS THE FLOW IS NOT
WEAKENING QUITE AS QUICKLY AS EXPECTED IN THE STRAIT. THE GALE WILL
BE EXTENDED FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS UNTIL 11 AM FOLLOWED BY A
TRANSITION SCA EARLY THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE INLAND WATERS HAVE EASED BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS
MORNING BUT GUSTY WINDS TODAY MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS.

MODELS SEEM TO BE CONSISTENT IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE WARM ADVECTION
APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND TODAY. PRESSURE FALLS CAUSED BY THE
WARM FRONT REACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND LATE TODAY WILL INCREASE THE S
WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND
OVER THE INLAND WATERS ON SUNDAY. AN SCA IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR
THE COAST. SCA WINDS ARE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE INTERIOR.

S FLOW SHOULD EASE LATE SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES N. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS W WA LATE MONDAY. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE GALES IN THE STRAIT
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. KAM

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML











000
FXUS66 KSEW 281623
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
915 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE TODAY BEHIND A FRONT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WEATHER SYSTEMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH WESTERN
WASHINGTON LATE MONDAY WITH RAIN. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE STREAMING INTO WRN WA THIS
MORNING WITH BREEZY WINDS. GALES OCCURRED IN THE STRAIT EARLIER AND
THIS OUTFLOW WILL MEET UP WITH THE S-SW FLOW IN PUGET SOUND
PRODUCING A CONVERGENCE ZONE TODAY. WESTERLY FLOW AT 850 MPH SHOULD
KEEP MOST THE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED ALONG THE W SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS OF FAR NRN KING AND SNOHOMISH COUNTIES.
THE NAM-12 HOLDS ONTO THE CONVERGENCE ZONE THROUGH THE DAY WHILE THE
HRRR IS LESS ENTHUSIASTIC. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS IT
WILL HANG AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. JUST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. SNOW LEVELS FELL OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...DOWN
TO ABOUT 4500 FEET NORTH AND 5000 FEET SOUTH. MOUNT BAKER PICKED UP
A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW AS DID HURRICANE RIDGE.  NOT
SURPRISINGLY...IT REMAINED TOO WARM IN THE PASSES FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW. IT WAS ALSO BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LAST NIGHT WITH
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH INTO THIS MORNING. GRADIENTS ARE EASING WITH
KPDX-KBLI DOWN TO +6 MB FROM ABOUT +8 MB AT THE PEAK EARLIER. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH THE DAY.

THE TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT WITH NEXT SYSTEM
DIRECTING MOIST W-SW FLOW INTO MAINLY BRITISH COLUMBIA. 06Z/12Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER N WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. NEWEST MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION
CONFINED TO MAINLY THE N COAST/OLYMPICS AND FAR N INTERIOR. PUGET
SOUND SWD LOOKS TO STAY MOSTLY DRY AND A TOUCH WARMER WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW 60S.

A BROAD TROUGH WILL DIG OFFSHORE DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THIS STILL APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL. MERCER

.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR SHOWERY WEATHER AT TIMES.
MODELS SUGGEST AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH HOW THINGS WILL PROGRESS AFTER
THAT. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER W WA WILL SLIDE OVER E WA
TONIGHT. MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. THE
PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE THAT FORMED OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED OVER THE
CASCADES AND IS DISSIPATING.

WEAKENING W ONSHORE FLOW HAS LEFT THE LOWER AIR MASS OVER W WA
SOMEWHAT MOIST...BUT THE MODERATE W FLOW HAS ALSO CAUSED CLEARING IN
THE LEE OF THE OLYMPICS AND VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE W FLOW IS ALSO
PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES AND OLYMPICS. THE LOWER AIR MASS IS ALSO WEAKLY UNSTABLE
AND AREAS OF CUMULUS OR STRATOCUMULUS WITH BASES 020-040 WILL BE
PRESENT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH 22Z.

A WARM FRONT APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER MAINLY THE N TWO THIRDS OF W WA BEGINNING AFTER 22Z.

KSEA...MVFR CIGS BKN018-030 ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z...LIFTING TO
SCT-BKN040 OR BETTER AFTER 21Z. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS NO LONGER A
FACTOR. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN S 14G24KT THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WITH A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AS 00Z APPROACHES. KAM

&&

.MARINE...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW EARLIER THIS MORNING IS WEAKENING AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER W WA...BUT PER RACE ROCKS THE FLOW IS NOT
WEAKENING QUITE AS QUICKLY AS EXPECTED IN THE STRAIT. THE GALE WILL
BE EXTENDED FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS UNTIL 11 AM FOLLOWED BY A
TRANSITION SCA EARLY THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE INLAND WATERS HAVE EASED BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS
MORNING BUT GUSTY WINDS TODAY MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS.

MODELS SEEM TO BE CONSISTENT IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE WARM ADVECTION
APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND TODAY. PRESSURE FALLS CAUSED BY THE
WARM FRONT REACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND LATE TODAY WILL INCREASE THE S
WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND
OVER THE INLAND WATERS ON SUNDAY. AN SCA IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR
THE COAST. SCA WINDS ARE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE INTERIOR.

S FLOW SHOULD EASE LATE SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES N. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS W WA LATE MONDAY. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE GALES IN THE STRAIT
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. KAM

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML











000
FXUS66 KSEW 281623
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
915 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE TODAY BEHIND A FRONT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WEATHER SYSTEMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH WESTERN
WASHINGTON LATE MONDAY WITH RAIN. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE STREAMING INTO WRN WA THIS
MORNING WITH BREEZY WINDS. GALES OCCURRED IN THE STRAIT EARLIER AND
THIS OUTFLOW WILL MEET UP WITH THE S-SW FLOW IN PUGET SOUND
PRODUCING A CONVERGENCE ZONE TODAY. WESTERLY FLOW AT 850 MPH SHOULD
KEEP MOST THE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED ALONG THE W SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS OF FAR NRN KING AND SNOHOMISH COUNTIES.
THE NAM-12 HOLDS ONTO THE CONVERGENCE ZONE THROUGH THE DAY WHILE THE
HRRR IS LESS ENTHUSIASTIC. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS IT
WILL HANG AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. JUST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. SNOW LEVELS FELL OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...DOWN
TO ABOUT 4500 FEET NORTH AND 5000 FEET SOUTH. MOUNT BAKER PICKED UP
A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW AS DID HURRICANE RIDGE.  NOT
SURPRISINGLY...IT REMAINED TOO WARM IN THE PASSES FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW. IT WAS ALSO BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LAST NIGHT WITH
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH INTO THIS MORNING. GRADIENTS ARE EASING WITH
KPDX-KBLI DOWN TO +6 MB FROM ABOUT +8 MB AT THE PEAK EARLIER. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH THE DAY.

THE TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT WITH NEXT SYSTEM
DIRECTING MOIST W-SW FLOW INTO MAINLY BRITISH COLUMBIA. 06Z/12Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER N WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. NEWEST MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION
CONFINED TO MAINLY THE N COAST/OLYMPICS AND FAR N INTERIOR. PUGET
SOUND SWD LOOKS TO STAY MOSTLY DRY AND A TOUCH WARMER WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW 60S.

A BROAD TROUGH WILL DIG OFFSHORE DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THIS STILL APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL. MERCER

.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR SHOWERY WEATHER AT TIMES.
MODELS SUGGEST AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH HOW THINGS WILL PROGRESS AFTER
THAT. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER W WA WILL SLIDE OVER E WA
TONIGHT. MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. THE
PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE THAT FORMED OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED OVER THE
CASCADES AND IS DISSIPATING.

WEAKENING W ONSHORE FLOW HAS LEFT THE LOWER AIR MASS OVER W WA
SOMEWHAT MOIST...BUT THE MODERATE W FLOW HAS ALSO CAUSED CLEARING IN
THE LEE OF THE OLYMPICS AND VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE W FLOW IS ALSO
PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES AND OLYMPICS. THE LOWER AIR MASS IS ALSO WEAKLY UNSTABLE
AND AREAS OF CUMULUS OR STRATOCUMULUS WITH BASES 020-040 WILL BE
PRESENT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH 22Z.

A WARM FRONT APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER MAINLY THE N TWO THIRDS OF W WA BEGINNING AFTER 22Z.

KSEA...MVFR CIGS BKN018-030 ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z...LIFTING TO
SCT-BKN040 OR BETTER AFTER 21Z. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS NO LONGER A
FACTOR. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN S 14G24KT THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WITH A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AS 00Z APPROACHES. KAM

&&

.MARINE...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW EARLIER THIS MORNING IS WEAKENING AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER W WA...BUT PER RACE ROCKS THE FLOW IS NOT
WEAKENING QUITE AS QUICKLY AS EXPECTED IN THE STRAIT. THE GALE WILL
BE EXTENDED FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS UNTIL 11 AM FOLLOWED BY A
TRANSITION SCA EARLY THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE INLAND WATERS HAVE EASED BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS
MORNING BUT GUSTY WINDS TODAY MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS.

MODELS SEEM TO BE CONSISTENT IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE WARM ADVECTION
APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND TODAY. PRESSURE FALLS CAUSED BY THE
WARM FRONT REACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND LATE TODAY WILL INCREASE THE S
WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND
OVER THE INLAND WATERS ON SUNDAY. AN SCA IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR
THE COAST. SCA WINDS ARE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE INTERIOR.

S FLOW SHOULD EASE LATE SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES N. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS W WA LATE MONDAY. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE GALES IN THE STRAIT
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. KAM

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML











000
FXUS66 KSEW 281623
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
915 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE TODAY BEHIND A FRONT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WEATHER SYSTEMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH WESTERN
WASHINGTON LATE MONDAY WITH RAIN. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE STREAMING INTO WRN WA THIS
MORNING WITH BREEZY WINDS. GALES OCCURRED IN THE STRAIT EARLIER AND
THIS OUTFLOW WILL MEET UP WITH THE S-SW FLOW IN PUGET SOUND
PRODUCING A CONVERGENCE ZONE TODAY. WESTERLY FLOW AT 850 MPH SHOULD
KEEP MOST THE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED ALONG THE W SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS OF FAR NRN KING AND SNOHOMISH COUNTIES.
THE NAM-12 HOLDS ONTO THE CONVERGENCE ZONE THROUGH THE DAY WHILE THE
HRRR IS LESS ENTHUSIASTIC. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS IT
WILL HANG AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. JUST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. SNOW LEVELS FELL OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...DOWN
TO ABOUT 4500 FEET NORTH AND 5000 FEET SOUTH. MOUNT BAKER PICKED UP
A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW AS DID HURRICANE RIDGE.  NOT
SURPRISINGLY...IT REMAINED TOO WARM IN THE PASSES FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW. IT WAS ALSO BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LAST NIGHT WITH
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH INTO THIS MORNING. GRADIENTS ARE EASING WITH
KPDX-KBLI DOWN TO +6 MB FROM ABOUT +8 MB AT THE PEAK EARLIER. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH THE DAY.

THE TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT WITH NEXT SYSTEM
DIRECTING MOIST W-SW FLOW INTO MAINLY BRITISH COLUMBIA. 06Z/12Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER N WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. NEWEST MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION
CONFINED TO MAINLY THE N COAST/OLYMPICS AND FAR N INTERIOR. PUGET
SOUND SWD LOOKS TO STAY MOSTLY DRY AND A TOUCH WARMER WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW 60S.

A BROAD TROUGH WILL DIG OFFSHORE DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THIS STILL APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL. MERCER

.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR SHOWERY WEATHER AT TIMES.
MODELS SUGGEST AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH HOW THINGS WILL PROGRESS AFTER
THAT. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER W WA WILL SLIDE OVER E WA
TONIGHT. MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. THE
PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE THAT FORMED OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED OVER THE
CASCADES AND IS DISSIPATING.

WEAKENING W ONSHORE FLOW HAS LEFT THE LOWER AIR MASS OVER W WA
SOMEWHAT MOIST...BUT THE MODERATE W FLOW HAS ALSO CAUSED CLEARING IN
THE LEE OF THE OLYMPICS AND VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE W FLOW IS ALSO
PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES AND OLYMPICS. THE LOWER AIR MASS IS ALSO WEAKLY UNSTABLE
AND AREAS OF CUMULUS OR STRATOCUMULUS WITH BASES 020-040 WILL BE
PRESENT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH 22Z.

A WARM FRONT APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER MAINLY THE N TWO THIRDS OF W WA BEGINNING AFTER 22Z.

KSEA...MVFR CIGS BKN018-030 ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z...LIFTING TO
SCT-BKN040 OR BETTER AFTER 21Z. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS NO LONGER A
FACTOR. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN S 14G24KT THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WITH A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AS 00Z APPROACHES. KAM

&&

.MARINE...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW EARLIER THIS MORNING IS WEAKENING AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER W WA...BUT PER RACE ROCKS THE FLOW IS NOT
WEAKENING QUITE AS QUICKLY AS EXPECTED IN THE STRAIT. THE GALE WILL
BE EXTENDED FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS UNTIL 11 AM FOLLOWED BY A
TRANSITION SCA EARLY THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE INLAND WATERS HAVE EASED BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS
MORNING BUT GUSTY WINDS TODAY MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS.

MODELS SEEM TO BE CONSISTENT IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE WARM ADVECTION
APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND TODAY. PRESSURE FALLS CAUSED BY THE
WARM FRONT REACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND LATE TODAY WILL INCREASE THE S
WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND
OVER THE INLAND WATERS ON SUNDAY. AN SCA IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR
THE COAST. SCA WINDS ARE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE INTERIOR.

S FLOW SHOULD EASE LATE SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES N. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS W WA LATE MONDAY. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE GALES IN THE STRAIT
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. KAM

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML











000
FXUS66 KSEW 281623
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
915 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE TODAY BEHIND A FRONT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WEATHER SYSTEMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH WESTERN
WASHINGTON LATE MONDAY WITH RAIN. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE STREAMING INTO WRN WA THIS
MORNING WITH BREEZY WINDS. GALES OCCURRED IN THE STRAIT EARLIER AND
THIS OUTFLOW WILL MEET UP WITH THE S-SW FLOW IN PUGET SOUND
PRODUCING A CONVERGENCE ZONE TODAY. WESTERLY FLOW AT 850 MPH SHOULD
KEEP MOST THE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED ALONG THE W SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS OF FAR NRN KING AND SNOHOMISH COUNTIES.
THE NAM-12 HOLDS ONTO THE CONVERGENCE ZONE THROUGH THE DAY WHILE THE
HRRR IS LESS ENTHUSIASTIC. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS IT
WILL HANG AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. JUST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. SNOW LEVELS FELL OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...DOWN
TO ABOUT 4500 FEET NORTH AND 5000 FEET SOUTH. MOUNT BAKER PICKED UP
A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW AS DID HURRICANE RIDGE.  NOT
SURPRISINGLY...IT REMAINED TOO WARM IN THE PASSES FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW. IT WAS ALSO BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LAST NIGHT WITH
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH INTO THIS MORNING. GRADIENTS ARE EASING WITH
KPDX-KBLI DOWN TO +6 MB FROM ABOUT +8 MB AT THE PEAK EARLIER. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH THE DAY.

THE TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT WITH NEXT SYSTEM
DIRECTING MOIST W-SW FLOW INTO MAINLY BRITISH COLUMBIA. 06Z/12Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER N WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. NEWEST MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION
CONFINED TO MAINLY THE N COAST/OLYMPICS AND FAR N INTERIOR. PUGET
SOUND SWD LOOKS TO STAY MOSTLY DRY AND A TOUCH WARMER WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW 60S.

A BROAD TROUGH WILL DIG OFFSHORE DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THIS STILL APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL. MERCER

.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR SHOWERY WEATHER AT TIMES.
MODELS SUGGEST AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH HOW THINGS WILL PROGRESS AFTER
THAT. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER W WA WILL SLIDE OVER E WA
TONIGHT. MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. THE
PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE THAT FORMED OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED OVER THE
CASCADES AND IS DISSIPATING.

WEAKENING W ONSHORE FLOW HAS LEFT THE LOWER AIR MASS OVER W WA
SOMEWHAT MOIST...BUT THE MODERATE W FLOW HAS ALSO CAUSED CLEARING IN
THE LEE OF THE OLYMPICS AND VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE W FLOW IS ALSO
PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES AND OLYMPICS. THE LOWER AIR MASS IS ALSO WEAKLY UNSTABLE
AND AREAS OF CUMULUS OR STRATOCUMULUS WITH BASES 020-040 WILL BE
PRESENT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH 22Z.

A WARM FRONT APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER MAINLY THE N TWO THIRDS OF W WA BEGINNING AFTER 22Z.

KSEA...MVFR CIGS BKN018-030 ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z...LIFTING TO
SCT-BKN040 OR BETTER AFTER 21Z. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS NO LONGER A
FACTOR. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN S 14G24KT THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WITH A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AS 00Z APPROACHES. KAM

&&

.MARINE...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW EARLIER THIS MORNING IS WEAKENING AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER W WA...BUT PER RACE ROCKS THE FLOW IS NOT
WEAKENING QUITE AS QUICKLY AS EXPECTED IN THE STRAIT. THE GALE WILL
BE EXTENDED FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS UNTIL 11 AM FOLLOWED BY A
TRANSITION SCA EARLY THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE INLAND WATERS HAVE EASED BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS
MORNING BUT GUSTY WINDS TODAY MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS.

MODELS SEEM TO BE CONSISTENT IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE WARM ADVECTION
APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND TODAY. PRESSURE FALLS CAUSED BY THE
WARM FRONT REACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND LATE TODAY WILL INCREASE THE S
WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND
OVER THE INLAND WATERS ON SUNDAY. AN SCA IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR
THE COAST. SCA WINDS ARE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE INTERIOR.

S FLOW SHOULD EASE LATE SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES N. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS W WA LATE MONDAY. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE GALES IN THE STRAIT
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. KAM

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML












000
FXUS66 KSEW 281623
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
915 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE TODAY BEHIND A FRONT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WEATHER SYSTEMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH WESTERN
WASHINGTON LATE MONDAY WITH RAIN. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE STREAMING INTO WRN WA THIS
MORNING WITH BREEZY WINDS. GALES OCCURRED IN THE STRAIT EARLIER AND
THIS OUTFLOW WILL MEET UP WITH THE S-SW FLOW IN PUGET SOUND
PRODUCING A CONVERGENCE ZONE TODAY. WESTERLY FLOW AT 850 MPH SHOULD
KEEP MOST THE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED ALONG THE W SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS OF FAR NRN KING AND SNOHOMISH COUNTIES.
THE NAM-12 HOLDS ONTO THE CONVERGENCE ZONE THROUGH THE DAY WHILE THE
HRRR IS LESS ENTHUSIASTIC. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS IT
WILL HANG AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. JUST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. SNOW LEVELS FELL OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...DOWN
TO ABOUT 4500 FEET NORTH AND 5000 FEET SOUTH. MOUNT BAKER PICKED UP
A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW AS DID HURRICANE RIDGE.  NOT
SURPRISINGLY...IT REMAINED TOO WARM IN THE PASSES FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW. IT WAS ALSO BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LAST NIGHT WITH
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH INTO THIS MORNING. GRADIENTS ARE EASING WITH
KPDX-KBLI DOWN TO +6 MB FROM ABOUT +8 MB AT THE PEAK EARLIER. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH THE DAY.

THE TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT WITH NEXT SYSTEM
DIRECTING MOIST W-SW FLOW INTO MAINLY BRITISH COLUMBIA. 06Z/12Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER N WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. NEWEST MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION
CONFINED TO MAINLY THE N COAST/OLYMPICS AND FAR N INTERIOR. PUGET
SOUND SWD LOOKS TO STAY MOSTLY DRY AND A TOUCH WARMER WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW 60S.

A BROAD TROUGH WILL DIG OFFSHORE DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THIS STILL APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL. MERCER

.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR SHOWERY WEATHER AT TIMES.
MODELS SUGGEST AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH HOW THINGS WILL PROGRESS AFTER
THAT. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER W WA WILL SLIDE OVER E WA
TONIGHT. MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. THE
PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE THAT FORMED OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED OVER THE
CASCADES AND IS DISSIPATING.

WEAKENING W ONSHORE FLOW HAS LEFT THE LOWER AIR MASS OVER W WA
SOMEWHAT MOIST...BUT THE MODERATE W FLOW HAS ALSO CAUSED CLEARING IN
THE LEE OF THE OLYMPICS AND VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE W FLOW IS ALSO
PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES AND OLYMPICS. THE LOWER AIR MASS IS ALSO WEAKLY UNSTABLE
AND AREAS OF CUMULUS OR STRATOCUMULUS WITH BASES 020-040 WILL BE
PRESENT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH 22Z.

A WARM FRONT APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER MAINLY THE N TWO THIRDS OF W WA BEGINNING AFTER 22Z.

KSEA...MVFR CIGS BKN018-030 ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z...LIFTING TO
SCT-BKN040 OR BETTER AFTER 21Z. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS NO LONGER A
FACTOR. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN S 14G24KT THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WITH A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AS 00Z APPROACHES. KAM

&&

.MARINE...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW EARLIER THIS MORNING IS WEAKENING AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER W WA...BUT PER RACE ROCKS THE FLOW IS NOT
WEAKENING QUITE AS QUICKLY AS EXPECTED IN THE STRAIT. THE GALE WILL
BE EXTENDED FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS UNTIL 11 AM FOLLOWED BY A
TRANSITION SCA EARLY THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE INLAND WATERS HAVE EASED BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS
MORNING BUT GUSTY WINDS TODAY MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS.

MODELS SEEM TO BE CONSISTENT IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE WARM ADVECTION
APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND TODAY. PRESSURE FALLS CAUSED BY THE
WARM FRONT REACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND LATE TODAY WILL INCREASE THE S
WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND
OVER THE INLAND WATERS ON SUNDAY. AN SCA IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR
THE COAST. SCA WINDS ARE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE INTERIOR.

S FLOW SHOULD EASE LATE SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES N. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS W WA LATE MONDAY. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE GALES IN THE STRAIT
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. KAM

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML











000
FXUS66 KPQR 281547
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
847 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...POST COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS AND THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. DRY AND MILD WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FROM
LATE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS MORE RAIN
AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW CASCADE PASS
LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION LAST NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
HAS NOW MOVED WELL EAST OF THE CASCADES AND WEAK HIGH PRES IS
BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE PAC NW. AS A RESULT...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS NOW MAINLY OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CASCADES AND COAST RANGE. THE OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS WEAKEN AND
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY TODAY AND MAY SEE SOME SUNBREAKS AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RELATIVELY FLAT HIGH PRES OVER THE PAC NW WILL BRING MORE DRY AND
MILD WEATHER ON SUN AND MUCH OF MON. HOWEVER...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
AIMED AT SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHWEST WASHINGTON WILL
REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH THAT OUR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL SEE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO THEIR COUNTERPARTS FARTHER SOUTH.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES
MAY GET CLIPPED BY A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO DURING THIS PERIOD.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE VALLEY
AND AROUND 60 ALONG THE COAST AND RANGING FROM ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT COMES ASHORE. THE FCST MODELS
ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE FRONT WITH RAIN CHANCES OVER LAND NOT
REALLY INCREASING NOW UNTIL AFTER 00Z TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH A FEW INCHES OF NOW POSSIBLE AT PASS LEVEL TUESDAY.
PYLE/BOWEN


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A RATHER ACTIVE WESTERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA WITH
RAIN CHANCES EVERY DAY THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. MODELS ARE STILL
TRENDING TOWARD A BREAK IN THE ACTION TOWARDS NEXT THURSDAY SO HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND POPS DOWNWARD THEN. MODELS DIVERGE FRIDAY WITH THE
ECMWF SHOWING A BUILDING RIDGE WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A FRONT
TRAVERSING THE AREA. HAVE FAVORED THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION BUT NUDGED
TOWARD CLIMO POP...ABOUT 40 PERCENT RIGHT NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
BOWEN

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE AREA IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIR MASS...BUT INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CASCADES AND COAST RANGE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. PRIMARILY VFR
CIGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH MAINTAIN TODAY AND BECOME
INCREASINGLY SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...LOWER SCATTERED CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST MAY
OCCASIONALLY FORM PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL
BRING VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES DECREASING AFT 18Z
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. VFR CIGS
GRADUALLY SCATTERING THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING ONLY A BROKEN HIGH
CLOUD DECK. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE LATE.   CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING.ARE WEAKENING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE A BIT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN
OUTER WATERS...IN BETWEEN THIS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS FOR GUSTS TO
25 KT.

SEAS WILL REMAIN 7 TO 9 FT TODAY OVER THE WATERS...BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN TO 10 FT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A ADVISORY FOR WINDS LIKELY NEEDED. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 1 PM PDT
     THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 281547
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
847 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...POST COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS AND THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. DRY AND MILD WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FROM
LATE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS MORE RAIN
AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW CASCADE PASS
LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION LAST NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
HAS NOW MOVED WELL EAST OF THE CASCADES AND WEAK HIGH PRES IS
BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE PAC NW. AS A RESULT...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS NOW MAINLY OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CASCADES AND COAST RANGE. THE OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS WEAKEN AND
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY TODAY AND MAY SEE SOME SUNBREAKS AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RELATIVELY FLAT HIGH PRES OVER THE PAC NW WILL BRING MORE DRY AND
MILD WEATHER ON SUN AND MUCH OF MON. HOWEVER...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
AIMED AT SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHWEST WASHINGTON WILL
REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH THAT OUR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL SEE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO THEIR COUNTERPARTS FARTHER SOUTH.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES
MAY GET CLIPPED BY A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO DURING THIS PERIOD.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE VALLEY
AND AROUND 60 ALONG THE COAST AND RANGING FROM ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT COMES ASHORE. THE FCST MODELS
ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE FRONT WITH RAIN CHANCES OVER LAND NOT
REALLY INCREASING NOW UNTIL AFTER 00Z TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH A FEW INCHES OF NOW POSSIBLE AT PASS LEVEL TUESDAY.
PYLE/BOWEN


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A RATHER ACTIVE WESTERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA WITH
RAIN CHANCES EVERY DAY THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. MODELS ARE STILL
TRENDING TOWARD A BREAK IN THE ACTION TOWARDS NEXT THURSDAY SO HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND POPS DOWNWARD THEN. MODELS DIVERGE FRIDAY WITH THE
ECMWF SHOWING A BUILDING RIDGE WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A FRONT
TRAVERSING THE AREA. HAVE FAVORED THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION BUT NUDGED
TOWARD CLIMO POP...ABOUT 40 PERCENT RIGHT NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
BOWEN

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE AREA IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIR MASS...BUT INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CASCADES AND COAST RANGE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. PRIMARILY VFR
CIGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH MAINTAIN TODAY AND BECOME
INCREASINGLY SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...LOWER SCATTERED CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST MAY
OCCASIONALLY FORM PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL
BRING VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES DECREASING AFT 18Z
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. VFR CIGS
GRADUALLY SCATTERING THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING ONLY A BROKEN HIGH
CLOUD DECK. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE LATE.   CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING.ARE WEAKENING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE A BIT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN
OUTER WATERS...IN BETWEEN THIS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS FOR GUSTS TO
25 KT.

SEAS WILL REMAIN 7 TO 9 FT TODAY OVER THE WATERS...BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN TO 10 FT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A ADVISORY FOR WINDS LIKELY NEEDED. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 1 PM PDT
     THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 281547
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
847 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...POST COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS AND THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. DRY AND MILD WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FROM
LATE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS MORE RAIN
AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW CASCADE PASS
LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION LAST NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
HAS NOW MOVED WELL EAST OF THE CASCADES AND WEAK HIGH PRES IS
BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE PAC NW. AS A RESULT...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS NOW MAINLY OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CASCADES AND COAST RANGE. THE OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS WEAKEN AND
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY TODAY AND MAY SEE SOME SUNBREAKS AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RELATIVELY FLAT HIGH PRES OVER THE PAC NW WILL BRING MORE DRY AND
MILD WEATHER ON SUN AND MUCH OF MON. HOWEVER...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
AIMED AT SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHWEST WASHINGTON WILL
REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH THAT OUR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL SEE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO THEIR COUNTERPARTS FARTHER SOUTH.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES
MAY GET CLIPPED BY A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO DURING THIS PERIOD.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE VALLEY
AND AROUND 60 ALONG THE COAST AND RANGING FROM ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT COMES ASHORE. THE FCST MODELS
ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE FRONT WITH RAIN CHANCES OVER LAND NOT
REALLY INCREASING NOW UNTIL AFTER 00Z TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH A FEW INCHES OF NOW POSSIBLE AT PASS LEVEL TUESDAY.
PYLE/BOWEN


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A RATHER ACTIVE WESTERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA WITH
RAIN CHANCES EVERY DAY THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. MODELS ARE STILL
TRENDING TOWARD A BREAK IN THE ACTION TOWARDS NEXT THURSDAY SO HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND POPS DOWNWARD THEN. MODELS DIVERGE FRIDAY WITH THE
ECMWF SHOWING A BUILDING RIDGE WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A FRONT
TRAVERSING THE AREA. HAVE FAVORED THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION BUT NUDGED
TOWARD CLIMO POP...ABOUT 40 PERCENT RIGHT NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
BOWEN

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE AREA IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIR MASS...BUT INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CASCADES AND COAST RANGE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. PRIMARILY VFR
CIGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH MAINTAIN TODAY AND BECOME
INCREASINGLY SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...LOWER SCATTERED CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST MAY
OCCASIONALLY FORM PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL
BRING VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES DECREASING AFT 18Z
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. VFR CIGS
GRADUALLY SCATTERING THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING ONLY A BROKEN HIGH
CLOUD DECK. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE LATE.   CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING.ARE WEAKENING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE A BIT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN
OUTER WATERS...IN BETWEEN THIS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS FOR GUSTS TO
25 KT.

SEAS WILL REMAIN 7 TO 9 FT TODAY OVER THE WATERS...BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN TO 10 FT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A ADVISORY FOR WINDS LIKELY NEEDED. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 1 PM PDT
     THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 281547
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
847 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...POST COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS AND THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. DRY AND MILD WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FROM
LATE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS MORE RAIN
AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW CASCADE PASS
LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION LAST NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
HAS NOW MOVED WELL EAST OF THE CASCADES AND WEAK HIGH PRES IS
BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE PAC NW. AS A RESULT...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS NOW MAINLY OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CASCADES AND COAST RANGE. THE OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS WEAKEN AND
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY TODAY AND MAY SEE SOME SUNBREAKS AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RELATIVELY FLAT HIGH PRES OVER THE PAC NW WILL BRING MORE DRY AND
MILD WEATHER ON SUN AND MUCH OF MON. HOWEVER...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
AIMED AT SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHWEST WASHINGTON WILL
REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH THAT OUR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL SEE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO THEIR COUNTERPARTS FARTHER SOUTH.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES
MAY GET CLIPPED BY A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO DURING THIS PERIOD.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE VALLEY
AND AROUND 60 ALONG THE COAST AND RANGING FROM ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT COMES ASHORE. THE FCST MODELS
ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE FRONT WITH RAIN CHANCES OVER LAND NOT
REALLY INCREASING NOW UNTIL AFTER 00Z TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH A FEW INCHES OF NOW POSSIBLE AT PASS LEVEL TUESDAY.
PYLE/BOWEN


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A RATHER ACTIVE WESTERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA WITH
RAIN CHANCES EVERY DAY THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. MODELS ARE STILL
TRENDING TOWARD A BREAK IN THE ACTION TOWARDS NEXT THURSDAY SO HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND POPS DOWNWARD THEN. MODELS DIVERGE FRIDAY WITH THE
ECMWF SHOWING A BUILDING RIDGE WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A FRONT
TRAVERSING THE AREA. HAVE FAVORED THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION BUT NUDGED
TOWARD CLIMO POP...ABOUT 40 PERCENT RIGHT NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
BOWEN

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE AREA IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIR MASS...BUT INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CASCADES AND COAST RANGE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. PRIMARILY VFR
CIGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH MAINTAIN TODAY AND BECOME
INCREASINGLY SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...LOWER SCATTERED CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST MAY
OCCASIONALLY FORM PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL
BRING VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES DECREASING AFT 18Z
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. VFR CIGS
GRADUALLY SCATTERING THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING ONLY A BROKEN HIGH
CLOUD DECK. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE LATE.   CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING.ARE WEAKENING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE A BIT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN
OUTER WATERS...IN BETWEEN THIS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS FOR GUSTS TO
25 KT.

SEAS WILL REMAIN 7 TO 9 FT TODAY OVER THE WATERS...BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN TO 10 FT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A ADVISORY FOR WINDS LIKELY NEEDED. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 1 PM PDT
     THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 281147
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
447 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be quite windy, especially in the morning. West winds
of 15 to 25 mph with gusts over 30 mph will be common throughout
the Inland Northwest with gusts as high as 45 mph over the
Palouse. Showers will linger over the Idaho Panhandle through
early this afternoon. The weather Sunday and Monday should be mild
and relatively dry. Another fast moving front on Tuesday will
bring more showers, wind, and onset to another few days of
unsettled weather.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Windy Today with the Highest Gusts This Morning Over the
Palouse...

Today: A cold front will race eastward this morning. By sunrise
most of the precipitation behind this front will clear eastern
Washington with showers lingering in Idaho through early
afternoon. Windy conditions are expected over most of the Inland
Northwest today, especially this morning.

* Winds: A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Palouse and the
  Pomeroy area through 11 AM. As of 2 AM, the surface cold front
  extended from southern Alberta through northwest Montana into
  the southern Idaho Panhandle. Strong pressure rises in central
  Oregon had contributed to the tightening of the southwest
  gradient across Washington and north Idaho. As cold air
  advection steepens our low level lapse rates during the next
  couple of hours, momentum transfer from 850mb and above will
  become more efficient allowing wind of 40 kts to mix to the
  surface in east and southeast Washington. The rising terrain of
  the Palouse, Foothills of the Blue Mountains, and the Pomeroy
  area should experience the strongest winds under the core of the
  low level jet. The West Plains and Waterville Plateau may also
  experience gusts of 40 mph or more which will be close to
  Advisory criteria. The highest gust potential will be this
  morning. By afternoon, low pressure will be racing through the
  Canadian Prairies and our surface gradient will relax a bit.
  Breezy conditions will persist through sunset, but gusts should
  decrease into the 30-35 mph range by early afternoon.

* Precipitation: The surface front has outpaced the mid-level
  front driving most of the rain showers. We have seen a marked
  decrease in the amount of lightning as deep low level cold
  advection has taken a bite out of our instability. Little more
  than a handful of lightning strikes are expected for the
  remainder of this event with the best possibility along the
  Canadian border under the 500mb cold pool. Snow levels will fall
  to 5000 feet by late morning leading to some light accumulations
  on the high peaks of the Idaho Panhandle and the Cascades above
  pass levels.

Sunday: A flat ridge of upper level high pressure will develop
tonight in the wake of today`s storm. At this time, the models are
in decent agreement that the core of the Polar Jet will be
directed toward Vancouver Island and southern British Columbia
Sunday and Sunday night. Low rain/snow chances have been retained
along the Cascade Crest mainly north of Stevens Pass Sunday along
with a mention of a 20 percent chance over the mountain ridges
along the Canadian border near Northport and Priest Lake. The
remainder of the Inland Northwest should be dry with the most
significant cloud cover (mid/high clouds) north of Interstate 90.
/GKoch

Monday through Thursday:  The active spring like weather will
continue well into next week. Monday will be a transition day
with mostly dry conditions as midlevel flow buckles to the
southwest ahead of the next trof approaching. This will nudge any
lingering cloud cover northward bringing a strong potential for an
abundance of sunshine and mild temperatures across the region. The
next upper-level trof will push into the region Monday night and
linger through Thursday bringing several rounds of showers, gusty
winds, and more seasonal temperatures. The first round of showers
will accompany the leading cold front Monday night. Gusty winds
will develop behind the front and persist into Tuesday. Meanwhile,
the atmosphere will become increasingly unstable as the Polar jet
noses into southern Oregon and 500mb temperatures cool near -30C.
A combination of forcing along smaller scale circulations (ie vort
max), orographic ascent, and diurnal heating will promote numerous
clusters of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Overall, it
will be unsettled and showery but not the steady rains experienced
on the 25th. Monday will be the warmest and driest day. Tuesday
will be the windiest day with the potential for sustained winds
15-30 mph and gusts in excess of 40 mph. Winds remain breezy
through the week but not near the speeds expected Tuesday.

Thursday night through Saturday: The persistent trof lingering
through Thursday will finally eject to the east as yet another
deep upper-level trof near the coast. There should be a short-
lived break as one system departs and the second approaches the
coast but models are not in good agreement on the extent of this
break. GFS has a break of roughly 6-8 hours before the next
frontal system arrives Thur nt into Friday. This has support from
its ensemble mean but not the ECMWF which is roughly 24-30 hours
slower. So timing is a bit sketchy at this time but model
consensus is suggesting this will be another multi day trof and
much cooler than the previous few largely in response to high
pressure nosing into the Gulf of AK and drawing cooler air south
through Wrn Canada. As previously mentioned, numerous rounds of
showers will be possible from a combination of elements but in
comparison to the system for Tue-Thur, snow levels will be lower
for several days, thunder chances will be lower due to lack of
charge separation, and graupel or snow could fall to some valley
floors. In addition, look for temperatures to cool back several
degrees below normal. We will be keeping a very close eye on this
event with the potential for early freeze warnings. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Strong post-frontal winds will impact the TAF sites
through mid to late afternoon today. West winds sustained 20 to
25kts with gusts up to 35kts are expected with the highest gusts
at KGEG and KPUW. Rain over the Idaho Panhandle will decrease to
scattered showers between 15-18z. Mixing this morning should lead
to improvement in ceilings, but a broken cumulus deck will likely
bring a 2500 to 4000 deck back to Coeur D`Alene, Sandpoint, and
possibly Spokane Felts by 17-19Z. Winds will diminish quickly with
the setting sun. /GKoch


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        59  38  58  40  64  42 /  20   0  10  10  10  20
Coeur d`Alene  58  36  58  39  64  40 /  50   0  10  10  10  30
Pullman        57  38  58  41  65  42 /  40   0  10  10  10  30
Lewiston       67  40  64  42  69  44 /  20   0   0   0  10  20
Colville       63  37  60  39  64  39 /  20  10  20  10  10  30
Sandpoint      56  35  56  36  61  39 /  70   0  10  10  10  40
Kellogg        53  36  56  38  62  38 /  90  10  10  10  10  40
Moses Lake     68  39  65  40  69  44 /   0   0  10   0  10  10
Wenatchee      66  42  64  45  68  43 /  10   0  10  10  10  20
Omak           67  38  62  39  67  40 /   0  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 281147
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
447 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be quite windy, especially in the morning. West winds
of 15 to 25 mph with gusts over 30 mph will be common throughout
the Inland Northwest with gusts as high as 45 mph over the
Palouse. Showers will linger over the Idaho Panhandle through
early this afternoon. The weather Sunday and Monday should be mild
and relatively dry. Another fast moving front on Tuesday will
bring more showers, wind, and onset to another few days of
unsettled weather.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Windy Today with the Highest Gusts This Morning Over the
Palouse...

Today: A cold front will race eastward this morning. By sunrise
most of the precipitation behind this front will clear eastern
Washington with showers lingering in Idaho through early
afternoon. Windy conditions are expected over most of the Inland
Northwest today, especially this morning.

* Winds: A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Palouse and the
  Pomeroy area through 11 AM. As of 2 AM, the surface cold front
  extended from southern Alberta through northwest Montana into
  the southern Idaho Panhandle. Strong pressure rises in central
  Oregon had contributed to the tightening of the southwest
  gradient across Washington and north Idaho. As cold air
  advection steepens our low level lapse rates during the next
  couple of hours, momentum transfer from 850mb and above will
  become more efficient allowing wind of 40 kts to mix to the
  surface in east and southeast Washington. The rising terrain of
  the Palouse, Foothills of the Blue Mountains, and the Pomeroy
  area should experience the strongest winds under the core of the
  low level jet. The West Plains and Waterville Plateau may also
  experience gusts of 40 mph or more which will be close to
  Advisory criteria. The highest gust potential will be this
  morning. By afternoon, low pressure will be racing through the
  Canadian Prairies and our surface gradient will relax a bit.
  Breezy conditions will persist through sunset, but gusts should
  decrease into the 30-35 mph range by early afternoon.

* Precipitation: The surface front has outpaced the mid-level
  front driving most of the rain showers. We have seen a marked
  decrease in the amount of lightning as deep low level cold
  advection has taken a bite out of our instability. Little more
  than a handful of lightning strikes are expected for the
  remainder of this event with the best possibility along the
  Canadian border under the 500mb cold pool. Snow levels will fall
  to 5000 feet by late morning leading to some light accumulations
  on the high peaks of the Idaho Panhandle and the Cascades above
  pass levels.

Sunday: A flat ridge of upper level high pressure will develop
tonight in the wake of today`s storm. At this time, the models are
in decent agreement that the core of the Polar Jet will be
directed toward Vancouver Island and southern British Columbia
Sunday and Sunday night. Low rain/snow chances have been retained
along the Cascade Crest mainly north of Stevens Pass Sunday along
with a mention of a 20 percent chance over the mountain ridges
along the Canadian border near Northport and Priest Lake. The
remainder of the Inland Northwest should be dry with the most
significant cloud cover (mid/high clouds) north of Interstate 90.
/GKoch

Monday through Thursday:  The active spring like weather will
continue well into next week. Monday will be a transition day
with mostly dry conditions as midlevel flow buckles to the
southwest ahead of the next trof approaching. This will nudge any
lingering cloud cover northward bringing a strong potential for an
abundance of sunshine and mild temperatures across the region. The
next upper-level trof will push into the region Monday night and
linger through Thursday bringing several rounds of showers, gusty
winds, and more seasonal temperatures. The first round of showers
will accompany the leading cold front Monday night. Gusty winds
will develop behind the front and persist into Tuesday. Meanwhile,
the atmosphere will become increasingly unstable as the Polar jet
noses into southern Oregon and 500mb temperatures cool near -30C.
A combination of forcing along smaller scale circulations (ie vort
max), orographic ascent, and diurnal heating will promote numerous
clusters of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Overall, it
will be unsettled and showery but not the steady rains experienced
on the 25th. Monday will be the warmest and driest day. Tuesday
will be the windiest day with the potential for sustained winds
15-30 mph and gusts in excess of 40 mph. Winds remain breezy
through the week but not near the speeds expected Tuesday.

Thursday night through Saturday: The persistent trof lingering
through Thursday will finally eject to the east as yet another
deep upper-level trof near the coast. There should be a short-
lived break as one system departs and the second approaches the
coast but models are not in good agreement on the extent of this
break. GFS has a break of roughly 6-8 hours before the next
frontal system arrives Thur nt into Friday. This has support from
its ensemble mean but not the ECMWF which is roughly 24-30 hours
slower. So timing is a bit sketchy at this time but model
consensus is suggesting this will be another multi day trof and
much cooler than the previous few largely in response to high
pressure nosing into the Gulf of AK and drawing cooler air south
through Wrn Canada. As previously mentioned, numerous rounds of
showers will be possible from a combination of elements but in
comparison to the system for Tue-Thur, snow levels will be lower
for several days, thunder chances will be lower due to lack of
charge separation, and graupel or snow could fall to some valley
floors. In addition, look for temperatures to cool back several
degrees below normal. We will be keeping a very close eye on this
event with the potential for early freeze warnings. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Strong post-frontal winds will impact the TAF sites
through mid to late afternoon today. West winds sustained 20 to
25kts with gusts up to 35kts are expected with the highest gusts
at KGEG and KPUW. Rain over the Idaho Panhandle will decrease to
scattered showers between 15-18z. Mixing this morning should lead
to improvement in ceilings, but a broken cumulus deck will likely
bring a 2500 to 4000 deck back to Coeur D`Alene, Sandpoint, and
possibly Spokane Felts by 17-19Z. Winds will diminish quickly with
the setting sun. /GKoch


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        59  38  58  40  64  42 /  20   0  10  10  10  20
Coeur d`Alene  58  36  58  39  64  40 /  50   0  10  10  10  30
Pullman        57  38  58  41  65  42 /  40   0  10  10  10  30
Lewiston       67  40  64  42  69  44 /  20   0   0   0  10  20
Colville       63  37  60  39  64  39 /  20  10  20  10  10  30
Sandpoint      56  35  56  36  61  39 /  70   0  10  10  10  40
Kellogg        53  36  56  38  62  38 /  90  10  10  10  10  40
Moses Lake     68  39  65  40  69  44 /   0   0  10   0  10  10
Wenatchee      66  42  64  45  68  43 /  10   0  10  10  10  20
Omak           67  38  62  39  67  40 /   0  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 281147
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
447 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be quite windy, especially in the morning. West winds
of 15 to 25 mph with gusts over 30 mph will be common throughout
the Inland Northwest with gusts as high as 45 mph over the
Palouse. Showers will linger over the Idaho Panhandle through
early this afternoon. The weather Sunday and Monday should be mild
and relatively dry. Another fast moving front on Tuesday will
bring more showers, wind, and onset to another few days of
unsettled weather.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Windy Today with the Highest Gusts This Morning Over the
Palouse...

Today: A cold front will race eastward this morning. By sunrise
most of the precipitation behind this front will clear eastern
Washington with showers lingering in Idaho through early
afternoon. Windy conditions are expected over most of the Inland
Northwest today, especially this morning.

* Winds: A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Palouse and the
  Pomeroy area through 11 AM. As of 2 AM, the surface cold front
  extended from southern Alberta through northwest Montana into
  the southern Idaho Panhandle. Strong pressure rises in central
  Oregon had contributed to the tightening of the southwest
  gradient across Washington and north Idaho. As cold air
  advection steepens our low level lapse rates during the next
  couple of hours, momentum transfer from 850mb and above will
  become more efficient allowing wind of 40 kts to mix to the
  surface in east and southeast Washington. The rising terrain of
  the Palouse, Foothills of the Blue Mountains, and the Pomeroy
  area should experience the strongest winds under the core of the
  low level jet. The West Plains and Waterville Plateau may also
  experience gusts of 40 mph or more which will be close to
  Advisory criteria. The highest gust potential will be this
  morning. By afternoon, low pressure will be racing through the
  Canadian Prairies and our surface gradient will relax a bit.
  Breezy conditions will persist through sunset, but gusts should
  decrease into the 30-35 mph range by early afternoon.

* Precipitation: The surface front has outpaced the mid-level
  front driving most of the rain showers. We have seen a marked
  decrease in the amount of lightning as deep low level cold
  advection has taken a bite out of our instability. Little more
  than a handful of lightning strikes are expected for the
  remainder of this event with the best possibility along the
  Canadian border under the 500mb cold pool. Snow levels will fall
  to 5000 feet by late morning leading to some light accumulations
  on the high peaks of the Idaho Panhandle and the Cascades above
  pass levels.

Sunday: A flat ridge of upper level high pressure will develop
tonight in the wake of today`s storm. At this time, the models are
in decent agreement that the core of the Polar Jet will be
directed toward Vancouver Island and southern British Columbia
Sunday and Sunday night. Low rain/snow chances have been retained
along the Cascade Crest mainly north of Stevens Pass Sunday along
with a mention of a 20 percent chance over the mountain ridges
along the Canadian border near Northport and Priest Lake. The
remainder of the Inland Northwest should be dry with the most
significant cloud cover (mid/high clouds) north of Interstate 90.
/GKoch

Monday through Thursday:  The active spring like weather will
continue well into next week. Monday will be a transition day
with mostly dry conditions as midlevel flow buckles to the
southwest ahead of the next trof approaching. This will nudge any
lingering cloud cover northward bringing a strong potential for an
abundance of sunshine and mild temperatures across the region. The
next upper-level trof will push into the region Monday night and
linger through Thursday bringing several rounds of showers, gusty
winds, and more seasonal temperatures. The first round of showers
will accompany the leading cold front Monday night. Gusty winds
will develop behind the front and persist into Tuesday. Meanwhile,
the atmosphere will become increasingly unstable as the Polar jet
noses into southern Oregon and 500mb temperatures cool near -30C.
A combination of forcing along smaller scale circulations (ie vort
max), orographic ascent, and diurnal heating will promote numerous
clusters of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Overall, it
will be unsettled and showery but not the steady rains experienced
on the 25th. Monday will be the warmest and driest day. Tuesday
will be the windiest day with the potential for sustained winds
15-30 mph and gusts in excess of 40 mph. Winds remain breezy
through the week but not near the speeds expected Tuesday.

Thursday night through Saturday: The persistent trof lingering
through Thursday will finally eject to the east as yet another
deep upper-level trof near the coast. There should be a short-
lived break as one system departs and the second approaches the
coast but models are not in good agreement on the extent of this
break. GFS has a break of roughly 6-8 hours before the next
frontal system arrives Thur nt into Friday. This has support from
its ensemble mean but not the ECMWF which is roughly 24-30 hours
slower. So timing is a bit sketchy at this time but model
consensus is suggesting this will be another multi day trof and
much cooler than the previous few largely in response to high
pressure nosing into the Gulf of AK and drawing cooler air south
through Wrn Canada. As previously mentioned, numerous rounds of
showers will be possible from a combination of elements but in
comparison to the system for Tue-Thur, snow levels will be lower
for several days, thunder chances will be lower due to lack of
charge separation, and graupel or snow could fall to some valley
floors. In addition, look for temperatures to cool back several
degrees below normal. We will be keeping a very close eye on this
event with the potential for early freeze warnings. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Strong post-frontal winds will impact the TAF sites
through mid to late afternoon today. West winds sustained 20 to
25kts with gusts up to 35kts are expected with the highest gusts
at KGEG and KPUW. Rain over the Idaho Panhandle will decrease to
scattered showers between 15-18z. Mixing this morning should lead
to improvement in ceilings, but a broken cumulus deck will likely
bring a 2500 to 4000 deck back to Coeur D`Alene, Sandpoint, and
possibly Spokane Felts by 17-19Z. Winds will diminish quickly with
the setting sun. /GKoch


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        59  38  58  40  64  42 /  20   0  10  10  10  20
Coeur d`Alene  58  36  58  39  64  40 /  50   0  10  10  10  30
Pullman        57  38  58  41  65  42 /  40   0  10  10  10  30
Lewiston       67  40  64  42  69  44 /  20   0   0   0  10  20
Colville       63  37  60  39  64  39 /  20  10  20  10  10  30
Sandpoint      56  35  56  36  61  39 /  70   0  10  10  10  40
Kellogg        53  36  56  38  62  38 /  90  10  10  10  10  40
Moses Lake     68  39  65  40  69  44 /   0   0  10   0  10  10
Wenatchee      66  42  64  45  68  43 /  10   0  10  10  10  20
Omak           67  38  62  39  67  40 /   0  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 281147
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
447 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be quite windy, especially in the morning. West winds
of 15 to 25 mph with gusts over 30 mph will be common throughout
the Inland Northwest with gusts as high as 45 mph over the
Palouse. Showers will linger over the Idaho Panhandle through
early this afternoon. The weather Sunday and Monday should be mild
and relatively dry. Another fast moving front on Tuesday will
bring more showers, wind, and onset to another few days of
unsettled weather.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Windy Today with the Highest Gusts This Morning Over the
Palouse...

Today: A cold front will race eastward this morning. By sunrise
most of the precipitation behind this front will clear eastern
Washington with showers lingering in Idaho through early
afternoon. Windy conditions are expected over most of the Inland
Northwest today, especially this morning.

* Winds: A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Palouse and the
  Pomeroy area through 11 AM. As of 2 AM, the surface cold front
  extended from southern Alberta through northwest Montana into
  the southern Idaho Panhandle. Strong pressure rises in central
  Oregon had contributed to the tightening of the southwest
  gradient across Washington and north Idaho. As cold air
  advection steepens our low level lapse rates during the next
  couple of hours, momentum transfer from 850mb and above will
  become more efficient allowing wind of 40 kts to mix to the
  surface in east and southeast Washington. The rising terrain of
  the Palouse, Foothills of the Blue Mountains, and the Pomeroy
  area should experience the strongest winds under the core of the
  low level jet. The West Plains and Waterville Plateau may also
  experience gusts of 40 mph or more which will be close to
  Advisory criteria. The highest gust potential will be this
  morning. By afternoon, low pressure will be racing through the
  Canadian Prairies and our surface gradient will relax a bit.
  Breezy conditions will persist through sunset, but gusts should
  decrease into the 30-35 mph range by early afternoon.

* Precipitation: The surface front has outpaced the mid-level
  front driving most of the rain showers. We have seen a marked
  decrease in the amount of lightning as deep low level cold
  advection has taken a bite out of our instability. Little more
  than a handful of lightning strikes are expected for the
  remainder of this event with the best possibility along the
  Canadian border under the 500mb cold pool. Snow levels will fall
  to 5000 feet by late morning leading to some light accumulations
  on the high peaks of the Idaho Panhandle and the Cascades above
  pass levels.

Sunday: A flat ridge of upper level high pressure will develop
tonight in the wake of today`s storm. At this time, the models are
in decent agreement that the core of the Polar Jet will be
directed toward Vancouver Island and southern British Columbia
Sunday and Sunday night. Low rain/snow chances have been retained
along the Cascade Crest mainly north of Stevens Pass Sunday along
with a mention of a 20 percent chance over the mountain ridges
along the Canadian border near Northport and Priest Lake. The
remainder of the Inland Northwest should be dry with the most
significant cloud cover (mid/high clouds) north of Interstate 90.
/GKoch

Monday through Thursday:  The active spring like weather will
continue well into next week. Monday will be a transition day
with mostly dry conditions as midlevel flow buckles to the
southwest ahead of the next trof approaching. This will nudge any
lingering cloud cover northward bringing a strong potential for an
abundance of sunshine and mild temperatures across the region. The
next upper-level trof will push into the region Monday night and
linger through Thursday bringing several rounds of showers, gusty
winds, and more seasonal temperatures. The first round of showers
will accompany the leading cold front Monday night. Gusty winds
will develop behind the front and persist into Tuesday. Meanwhile,
the atmosphere will become increasingly unstable as the Polar jet
noses into southern Oregon and 500mb temperatures cool near -30C.
A combination of forcing along smaller scale circulations (ie vort
max), orographic ascent, and diurnal heating will promote numerous
clusters of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Overall, it
will be unsettled and showery but not the steady rains experienced
on the 25th. Monday will be the warmest and driest day. Tuesday
will be the windiest day with the potential for sustained winds
15-30 mph and gusts in excess of 40 mph. Winds remain breezy
through the week but not near the speeds expected Tuesday.

Thursday night through Saturday: The persistent trof lingering
through Thursday will finally eject to the east as yet another
deep upper-level trof near the coast. There should be a short-
lived break as one system departs and the second approaches the
coast but models are not in good agreement on the extent of this
break. GFS has a break of roughly 6-8 hours before the next
frontal system arrives Thur nt into Friday. This has support from
its ensemble mean but not the ECMWF which is roughly 24-30 hours
slower. So timing is a bit sketchy at this time but model
consensus is suggesting this will be another multi day trof and
much cooler than the previous few largely in response to high
pressure nosing into the Gulf of AK and drawing cooler air south
through Wrn Canada. As previously mentioned, numerous rounds of
showers will be possible from a combination of elements but in
comparison to the system for Tue-Thur, snow levels will be lower
for several days, thunder chances will be lower due to lack of
charge separation, and graupel or snow could fall to some valley
floors. In addition, look for temperatures to cool back several
degrees below normal. We will be keeping a very close eye on this
event with the potential for early freeze warnings. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Strong post-frontal winds will impact the TAF sites
through mid to late afternoon today. West winds sustained 20 to
25kts with gusts up to 35kts are expected with the highest gusts
at KGEG and KPUW. Rain over the Idaho Panhandle will decrease to
scattered showers between 15-18z. Mixing this morning should lead
to improvement in ceilings, but a broken cumulus deck will likely
bring a 2500 to 4000 deck back to Coeur D`Alene, Sandpoint, and
possibly Spokane Felts by 17-19Z. Winds will diminish quickly with
the setting sun. /GKoch


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        59  38  58  40  64  42 /  20   0  10  10  10  20
Coeur d`Alene  58  36  58  39  64  40 /  50   0  10  10  10  30
Pullman        57  38  58  41  65  42 /  40   0  10  10  10  30
Lewiston       67  40  64  42  69  44 /  20   0   0   0  10  20
Colville       63  37  60  39  64  39 /  20  10  20  10  10  30
Sandpoint      56  35  56  36  61  39 /  70   0  10  10  10  40
Kellogg        53  36  56  38  62  38 /  90  10  10  10  10  40
Moses Lake     68  39  65  40  69  44 /   0   0  10   0  10  10
Wenatchee      66  42  64  45  68  43 /  10   0  10  10  10  20
Omak           67  38  62  39  67  40 /   0  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 280959
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
259 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be quite windy, especially in the morning. West winds
of 15 to 25 mph with gusts over 30 mph will be common throughout
the Inland Northwest with gusts as high as 45 mph over the
Palouse. Showers will linger over the Idaho Panhandle through
early this afternoon. The weather Sunday and Monday should be
mild and relatively dry. Another fast moving front on Tuesday will
bring more showers, wind, and onset to another few days of
unsettled weather.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Windy Today with the Highest Gusts This Morning Over the
Palouse...

Today: A cold front will race eastward this morning. By sunrise
most of the precipitation behind this front will clear eastern
Washington with showers lingering in Idaho through early
afternoon. Windy conditions are expected over most of the Inland
Northwest today, especially this morning.

* Winds: A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Palouse and the
  Pomeroy area through 11 AM. As of 2 AM, the surface cold front
  extended from southern Alberta through northwest Montana into
  the southern Idaho Panhandle. Strong pressure rises in central
  Oregon had contributed to the tightening of the southwest
  gradient across Washington and north Idaho. As cold air
  advection steepens our low level lapse rates during the next
  couple of hours, momentum transfer from 850mb and above will
  become more efficient allowing wind of 40 kts to mix to the
  surface in east and southeast Washington. The rising terrain of
  the Palouse, Foothills of the Blue Mountains, and the Pomeroy
  area should experience the strongest winds under the core of the
  low level jet. The West Plains and Waterville Plateau may also
  experience gusts of 40 mph or more which will be close to
  Advisory criteria. The highest gust potential will be this
  morning. By afternoon, low pressure will be racing through the
  Canadian Prairies and our surface gradient will relax a bit.
  Breezy conditions will persist through sunset, but gusts should
  decrease into the 30-35 mph range by early afternoon.

* Precipitation: The surface front has outpaced the mid-level
  front driving most of the rain showers. We have seen a marked
  decrease in the amount of lightning as deep low level cold
  advection has taken a bite out of our instability. Little more
  than a handful of lightning strikes are expected for the
  remainder of this event with the best possibility along the
  Canadian border under the 500mb cold pool. Snow levels will fall
  to 5000 feet by late morning leading to some light accumulations
  on the high peaks of the Idaho Panhandle and the Cascades above
  pass levels.

Sunday: A flat ridge of upper level high pressure will develop
tonight in the wake of today`s storm. At this time, the models are
in decent agreement that the core of the Polar Jet will be
directed toward Vancouver Island and southern British Columbia
Sunday and Sunday night. Low rain/snow chances have been retained
along the Cascade Crest mainly north of Stevens Pass Sunday along
with a mention of a 20 percent chance over the mountain ridges
along the Canadian border near Northport and Priest Lake. The
remainder of the Inland Northwest should be dry with the most
significant cloud cover (mid/high clouds) north of Interstate 90.
/GKoch

Monday through Thursday:  The active spring like weather will
continue well into next week. Monday will be a transition day
with mostly dry conditions as midlevel flow buckles to the
southwest ahead of the next trof approaching. This will nudge any
lingering cloud cover northward bringing a strong potential for an
abundance of sunshine and mild temperatures across the region. The
next upper-level trof will push into the region Monday night and
linger through Thursday bringing several rounds of showers, gusty
winds, and more seasonal temperatures. The first round of showers
will accompany the leading cold front Monday night. Gusty winds
will develop behind the front and persist into Tuesday. Meanwhile,
the atmosphere will become increasingly unstable as the Polar jet
noses into southern Oregon and 500mb temperatures cool near -30C.
A combination of forcing along smaller scale circulations (ie vort
max), orographic ascent, and diurnal heating will promote numerous
clusters of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Overall, it
will be unsettled and showery but not the steady rains experienced
on the 25th. Monday will be the warmest and driest day. Tuesday
will be the windiest day with the potential for sustained winds
15-30 mph and gusts in excess of 40 mph. Winds remain breezy
through the week but not near the speeds expected Tuesday.

Thursday night through Saturday: The persistent trof lingering
through Thursday will finally eject to the east as yet another
deep upper-level trof near the coast. There should be a short-
lived break as one system departs and the second approaches the
coast but models are not in good agreement on the extent of this
break. GFS has a break of roughly 6-8 hours before the next
frontal system arrives Thur nt into Friday. This has support from
its ensemble mean but not the ECMWF which is roughly 24-30 hours
slower. So timing is a bit sketchy at this time but model
consensus is suggesting this will be another multi day trof and
much cooler than the previous few largely in response to high
pressure nosing into the Gulf of AK and drawing cooler air south
through Wrn Canada. As previously mentioned, numerous rounds of
showers will be possible from a combination of elements but in
comparison to the system for Tue-Thur, snow levels will be lower
for several days, thunder chances will be lower due to lack of
charge separation, and graupel or snow could fall to some valley
floors. In addition, look for temperatures to cool back several
degrees below normal. We will be keeping a very close eye on this
event with the potential for early freeze warnings. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A vigorous cold front will sweep across the region
overnight. Showers will increase across the region between 06-12Z
and then begin to shift eastward with frontal passage. Some of the
stronger cells will be capable of producing thunderstorms and/or
produce brief heavy rain. Best chances for thunderstorms will be
through 10Z across southeast WA and into the southern to central
portion of the Panhandle. This will include the KPUW and KLWS TAF
sites with gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph and pea sized hail a
possibility with these thunderstorms. Widespread gusty westerly
winds will commence as showers shift east behind the front.
Sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph will be
possible through Saturday afternoon. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        59  38  58  40  64  42 /  20   0  10  10  10  20
Coeur d`Alene  58  36  58  39  64  40 /  50   0  10  10  10  30
Pullman        57  38  58  41  65  42 /  40   0  10  10  10  30
Lewiston       67  40  64  42  69  44 /  20   0   0   0  10  20
Colville       63  37  60  39  64  39 /  20  10  20  10  10  30
Sandpoint      56  35  56  36  61  39 /  70   0  10  10  10  40
Kellogg        53  36  56  38  62  38 /  90  10  10  10  10  40
Moses Lake     68  39  65  40  69  44 /   0   0  10   0  10  10
Wenatchee      66  42  64  45  68  43 /  10   0  10  10  10  20
Omak           67  38  62  39  67  40 /   0  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 280959
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
259 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be quite windy, especially in the morning. West winds
of 15 to 25 mph with gusts over 30 mph will be common throughout
the Inland Northwest with gusts as high as 45 mph over the
Palouse. Showers will linger over the Idaho Panhandle through
early this afternoon. The weather Sunday and Monday should be
mild and relatively dry. Another fast moving front on Tuesday will
bring more showers, wind, and onset to another few days of
unsettled weather.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Windy Today with the Highest Gusts This Morning Over the
Palouse...

Today: A cold front will race eastward this morning. By sunrise
most of the precipitation behind this front will clear eastern
Washington with showers lingering in Idaho through early
afternoon. Windy conditions are expected over most of the Inland
Northwest today, especially this morning.

* Winds: A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Palouse and the
  Pomeroy area through 11 AM. As of 2 AM, the surface cold front
  extended from southern Alberta through northwest Montana into
  the southern Idaho Panhandle. Strong pressure rises in central
  Oregon had contributed to the tightening of the southwest
  gradient across Washington and north Idaho. As cold air
  advection steepens our low level lapse rates during the next
  couple of hours, momentum transfer from 850mb and above will
  become more efficient allowing wind of 40 kts to mix to the
  surface in east and southeast Washington. The rising terrain of
  the Palouse, Foothills of the Blue Mountains, and the Pomeroy
  area should experience the strongest winds under the core of the
  low level jet. The West Plains and Waterville Plateau may also
  experience gusts of 40 mph or more which will be close to
  Advisory criteria. The highest gust potential will be this
  morning. By afternoon, low pressure will be racing through the
  Canadian Prairies and our surface gradient will relax a bit.
  Breezy conditions will persist through sunset, but gusts should
  decrease into the 30-35 mph range by early afternoon.

* Precipitation: The surface front has outpaced the mid-level
  front driving most of the rain showers. We have seen a marked
  decrease in the amount of lightning as deep low level cold
  advection has taken a bite out of our instability. Little more
  than a handful of lightning strikes are expected for the
  remainder of this event with the best possibility along the
  Canadian border under the 500mb cold pool. Snow levels will fall
  to 5000 feet by late morning leading to some light accumulations
  on the high peaks of the Idaho Panhandle and the Cascades above
  pass levels.

Sunday: A flat ridge of upper level high pressure will develop
tonight in the wake of today`s storm. At this time, the models are
in decent agreement that the core of the Polar Jet will be
directed toward Vancouver Island and southern British Columbia
Sunday and Sunday night. Low rain/snow chances have been retained
along the Cascade Crest mainly north of Stevens Pass Sunday along
with a mention of a 20 percent chance over the mountain ridges
along the Canadian border near Northport and Priest Lake. The
remainder of the Inland Northwest should be dry with the most
significant cloud cover (mid/high clouds) north of Interstate 90.
/GKoch

Monday through Thursday:  The active spring like weather will
continue well into next week. Monday will be a transition day
with mostly dry conditions as midlevel flow buckles to the
southwest ahead of the next trof approaching. This will nudge any
lingering cloud cover northward bringing a strong potential for an
abundance of sunshine and mild temperatures across the region. The
next upper-level trof will push into the region Monday night and
linger through Thursday bringing several rounds of showers, gusty
winds, and more seasonal temperatures. The first round of showers
will accompany the leading cold front Monday night. Gusty winds
will develop behind the front and persist into Tuesday. Meanwhile,
the atmosphere will become increasingly unstable as the Polar jet
noses into southern Oregon and 500mb temperatures cool near -30C.
A combination of forcing along smaller scale circulations (ie vort
max), orographic ascent, and diurnal heating will promote numerous
clusters of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Overall, it
will be unsettled and showery but not the steady rains experienced
on the 25th. Monday will be the warmest and driest day. Tuesday
will be the windiest day with the potential for sustained winds
15-30 mph and gusts in excess of 40 mph. Winds remain breezy
through the week but not near the speeds expected Tuesday.

Thursday night through Saturday: The persistent trof lingering
through Thursday will finally eject to the east as yet another
deep upper-level trof near the coast. There should be a short-
lived break as one system departs and the second approaches the
coast but models are not in good agreement on the extent of this
break. GFS has a break of roughly 6-8 hours before the next
frontal system arrives Thur nt into Friday. This has support from
its ensemble mean but not the ECMWF which is roughly 24-30 hours
slower. So timing is a bit sketchy at this time but model
consensus is suggesting this will be another multi day trof and
much cooler than the previous few largely in response to high
pressure nosing into the Gulf of AK and drawing cooler air south
through Wrn Canada. As previously mentioned, numerous rounds of
showers will be possible from a combination of elements but in
comparison to the system for Tue-Thur, snow levels will be lower
for several days, thunder chances will be lower due to lack of
charge separation, and graupel or snow could fall to some valley
floors. In addition, look for temperatures to cool back several
degrees below normal. We will be keeping a very close eye on this
event with the potential for early freeze warnings. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A vigorous cold front will sweep across the region
overnight. Showers will increase across the region between 06-12Z
and then begin to shift eastward with frontal passage. Some of the
stronger cells will be capable of producing thunderstorms and/or
produce brief heavy rain. Best chances for thunderstorms will be
through 10Z across southeast WA and into the southern to central
portion of the Panhandle. This will include the KPUW and KLWS TAF
sites with gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph and pea sized hail a
possibility with these thunderstorms. Widespread gusty westerly
winds will commence as showers shift east behind the front.
Sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph will be
possible through Saturday afternoon. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        59  38  58  40  64  42 /  20   0  10  10  10  20
Coeur d`Alene  58  36  58  39  64  40 /  50   0  10  10  10  30
Pullman        57  38  58  41  65  42 /  40   0  10  10  10  30
Lewiston       67  40  64  42  69  44 /  20   0   0   0  10  20
Colville       63  37  60  39  64  39 /  20  10  20  10  10  30
Sandpoint      56  35  56  36  61  39 /  70   0  10  10  10  40
Kellogg        53  36  56  38  62  38 /  90  10  10  10  10  40
Moses Lake     68  39  65  40  69  44 /   0   0  10   0  10  10
Wenatchee      66  42  64  45  68  43 /  10   0  10  10  10  20
Omak           67  38  62  39  67  40 /   0  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 280959
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
259 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be quite windy, especially in the morning. West winds
of 15 to 25 mph with gusts over 30 mph will be common throughout
the Inland Northwest with gusts as high as 45 mph over the
Palouse. Showers will linger over the Idaho Panhandle through
early this afternoon. The weather Sunday and Monday should be
mild and relatively dry. Another fast moving front on Tuesday will
bring more showers, wind, and onset to another few days of
unsettled weather.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Windy Today with the Highest Gusts This Morning Over the
Palouse...

Today: A cold front will race eastward this morning. By sunrise
most of the precipitation behind this front will clear eastern
Washington with showers lingering in Idaho through early
afternoon. Windy conditions are expected over most of the Inland
Northwest today, especially this morning.

* Winds: A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Palouse and the
  Pomeroy area through 11 AM. As of 2 AM, the surface cold front
  extended from southern Alberta through northwest Montana into
  the southern Idaho Panhandle. Strong pressure rises in central
  Oregon had contributed to the tightening of the southwest
  gradient across Washington and north Idaho. As cold air
  advection steepens our low level lapse rates during the next
  couple of hours, momentum transfer from 850mb and above will
  become more efficient allowing wind of 40 kts to mix to the
  surface in east and southeast Washington. The rising terrain of
  the Palouse, Foothills of the Blue Mountains, and the Pomeroy
  area should experience the strongest winds under the core of the
  low level jet. The West Plains and Waterville Plateau may also
  experience gusts of 40 mph or more which will be close to
  Advisory criteria. The highest gust potential will be this
  morning. By afternoon, low pressure will be racing through the
  Canadian Prairies and our surface gradient will relax a bit.
  Breezy conditions will persist through sunset, but gusts should
  decrease into the 30-35 mph range by early afternoon.

* Precipitation: The surface front has outpaced the mid-level
  front driving most of the rain showers. We have seen a marked
  decrease in the amount of lightning as deep low level cold
  advection has taken a bite out of our instability. Little more
  than a handful of lightning strikes are expected for the
  remainder of this event with the best possibility along the
  Canadian border under the 500mb cold pool. Snow levels will fall
  to 5000 feet by late morning leading to some light accumulations
  on the high peaks of the Idaho Panhandle and the Cascades above
  pass levels.

Sunday: A flat ridge of upper level high pressure will develop
tonight in the wake of today`s storm. At this time, the models are
in decent agreement that the core of the Polar Jet will be
directed toward Vancouver Island and southern British Columbia
Sunday and Sunday night. Low rain/snow chances have been retained
along the Cascade Crest mainly north of Stevens Pass Sunday along
with a mention of a 20 percent chance over the mountain ridges
along the Canadian border near Northport and Priest Lake. The
remainder of the Inland Northwest should be dry with the most
significant cloud cover (mid/high clouds) north of Interstate 90.
/GKoch

Monday through Thursday:  The active spring like weather will
continue well into next week. Monday will be a transition day
with mostly dry conditions as midlevel flow buckles to the
southwest ahead of the next trof approaching. This will nudge any
lingering cloud cover northward bringing a strong potential for an
abundance of sunshine and mild temperatures across the region. The
next upper-level trof will push into the region Monday night and
linger through Thursday bringing several rounds of showers, gusty
winds, and more seasonal temperatures. The first round of showers
will accompany the leading cold front Monday night. Gusty winds
will develop behind the front and persist into Tuesday. Meanwhile,
the atmosphere will become increasingly unstable as the Polar jet
noses into southern Oregon and 500mb temperatures cool near -30C.
A combination of forcing along smaller scale circulations (ie vort
max), orographic ascent, and diurnal heating will promote numerous
clusters of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Overall, it
will be unsettled and showery but not the steady rains experienced
on the 25th. Monday will be the warmest and driest day. Tuesday
will be the windiest day with the potential for sustained winds
15-30 mph and gusts in excess of 40 mph. Winds remain breezy
through the week but not near the speeds expected Tuesday.

Thursday night through Saturday: The persistent trof lingering
through Thursday will finally eject to the east as yet another
deep upper-level trof near the coast. There should be a short-
lived break as one system departs and the second approaches the
coast but models are not in good agreement on the extent of this
break. GFS has a break of roughly 6-8 hours before the next
frontal system arrives Thur nt into Friday. This has support from
its ensemble mean but not the ECMWF which is roughly 24-30 hours
slower. So timing is a bit sketchy at this time but model
consensus is suggesting this will be another multi day trof and
much cooler than the previous few largely in response to high
pressure nosing into the Gulf of AK and drawing cooler air south
through Wrn Canada. As previously mentioned, numerous rounds of
showers will be possible from a combination of elements but in
comparison to the system for Tue-Thur, snow levels will be lower
for several days, thunder chances will be lower due to lack of
charge separation, and graupel or snow could fall to some valley
floors. In addition, look for temperatures to cool back several
degrees below normal. We will be keeping a very close eye on this
event with the potential for early freeze warnings. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A vigorous cold front will sweep across the region
overnight. Showers will increase across the region between 06-12Z
and then begin to shift eastward with frontal passage. Some of the
stronger cells will be capable of producing thunderstorms and/or
produce brief heavy rain. Best chances for thunderstorms will be
through 10Z across southeast WA and into the southern to central
portion of the Panhandle. This will include the KPUW and KLWS TAF
sites with gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph and pea sized hail a
possibility with these thunderstorms. Widespread gusty westerly
winds will commence as showers shift east behind the front.
Sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph will be
possible through Saturday afternoon. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        59  38  58  40  64  42 /  20   0  10  10  10  20
Coeur d`Alene  58  36  58  39  64  40 /  50   0  10  10  10  30
Pullman        57  38  58  41  65  42 /  40   0  10  10  10  30
Lewiston       67  40  64  42  69  44 /  20   0   0   0  10  20
Colville       63  37  60  39  64  39 /  20  10  20  10  10  30
Sandpoint      56  35  56  36  61  39 /  70   0  10  10  10  40
Kellogg        53  36  56  38  62  38 /  90  10  10  10  10  40
Moses Lake     68  39  65  40  69  44 /   0   0  10   0  10  10
Wenatchee      66  42  64  45  68  43 /  10   0  10  10  10  20
Omak           67  38  62  39  67  40 /   0  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 280959
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
259 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be quite windy, especially in the morning. West winds
of 15 to 25 mph with gusts over 30 mph will be common throughout
the Inland Northwest with gusts as high as 45 mph over the
Palouse. Showers will linger over the Idaho Panhandle through
early this afternoon. The weather Sunday and Monday should be
mild and relatively dry. Another fast moving front on Tuesday will
bring more showers, wind, and onset to another few days of
unsettled weather.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Windy Today with the Highest Gusts This Morning Over the
Palouse...

Today: A cold front will race eastward this morning. By sunrise
most of the precipitation behind this front will clear eastern
Washington with showers lingering in Idaho through early
afternoon. Windy conditions are expected over most of the Inland
Northwest today, especially this morning.

* Winds: A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Palouse and the
  Pomeroy area through 11 AM. As of 2 AM, the surface cold front
  extended from southern Alberta through northwest Montana into
  the southern Idaho Panhandle. Strong pressure rises in central
  Oregon had contributed to the tightening of the southwest
  gradient across Washington and north Idaho. As cold air
  advection steepens our low level lapse rates during the next
  couple of hours, momentum transfer from 850mb and above will
  become more efficient allowing wind of 40 kts to mix to the
  surface in east and southeast Washington. The rising terrain of
  the Palouse, Foothills of the Blue Mountains, and the Pomeroy
  area should experience the strongest winds under the core of the
  low level jet. The West Plains and Waterville Plateau may also
  experience gusts of 40 mph or more which will be close to
  Advisory criteria. The highest gust potential will be this
  morning. By afternoon, low pressure will be racing through the
  Canadian Prairies and our surface gradient will relax a bit.
  Breezy conditions will persist through sunset, but gusts should
  decrease into the 30-35 mph range by early afternoon.

* Precipitation: The surface front has outpaced the mid-level
  front driving most of the rain showers. We have seen a marked
  decrease in the amount of lightning as deep low level cold
  advection has taken a bite out of our instability. Little more
  than a handful of lightning strikes are expected for the
  remainder of this event with the best possibility along the
  Canadian border under the 500mb cold pool. Snow levels will fall
  to 5000 feet by late morning leading to some light accumulations
  on the high peaks of the Idaho Panhandle and the Cascades above
  pass levels.

Sunday: A flat ridge of upper level high pressure will develop
tonight in the wake of today`s storm. At this time, the models are
in decent agreement that the core of the Polar Jet will be
directed toward Vancouver Island and southern British Columbia
Sunday and Sunday night. Low rain/snow chances have been retained
along the Cascade Crest mainly north of Stevens Pass Sunday along
with a mention of a 20 percent chance over the mountain ridges
along the Canadian border near Northport and Priest Lake. The
remainder of the Inland Northwest should be dry with the most
significant cloud cover (mid/high clouds) north of Interstate 90.
/GKoch

Monday through Thursday:  The active spring like weather will
continue well into next week. Monday will be a transition day
with mostly dry conditions as midlevel flow buckles to the
southwest ahead of the next trof approaching. This will nudge any
lingering cloud cover northward bringing a strong potential for an
abundance of sunshine and mild temperatures across the region. The
next upper-level trof will push into the region Monday night and
linger through Thursday bringing several rounds of showers, gusty
winds, and more seasonal temperatures. The first round of showers
will accompany the leading cold front Monday night. Gusty winds
will develop behind the front and persist into Tuesday. Meanwhile,
the atmosphere will become increasingly unstable as the Polar jet
noses into southern Oregon and 500mb temperatures cool near -30C.
A combination of forcing along smaller scale circulations (ie vort
max), orographic ascent, and diurnal heating will promote numerous
clusters of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Overall, it
will be unsettled and showery but not the steady rains experienced
on the 25th. Monday will be the warmest and driest day. Tuesday
will be the windiest day with the potential for sustained winds
15-30 mph and gusts in excess of 40 mph. Winds remain breezy
through the week but not near the speeds expected Tuesday.

Thursday night through Saturday: The persistent trof lingering
through Thursday will finally eject to the east as yet another
deep upper-level trof near the coast. There should be a short-
lived break as one system departs and the second approaches the
coast but models are not in good agreement on the extent of this
break. GFS has a break of roughly 6-8 hours before the next
frontal system arrives Thur nt into Friday. This has support from
its ensemble mean but not the ECMWF which is roughly 24-30 hours
slower. So timing is a bit sketchy at this time but model
consensus is suggesting this will be another multi day trof and
much cooler than the previous few largely in response to high
pressure nosing into the Gulf of AK and drawing cooler air south
through Wrn Canada. As previously mentioned, numerous rounds of
showers will be possible from a combination of elements but in
comparison to the system for Tue-Thur, snow levels will be lower
for several days, thunder chances will be lower due to lack of
charge separation, and graupel or snow could fall to some valley
floors. In addition, look for temperatures to cool back several
degrees below normal. We will be keeping a very close eye on this
event with the potential for early freeze warnings. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A vigorous cold front will sweep across the region
overnight. Showers will increase across the region between 06-12Z
and then begin to shift eastward with frontal passage. Some of the
stronger cells will be capable of producing thunderstorms and/or
produce brief heavy rain. Best chances for thunderstorms will be
through 10Z across southeast WA and into the southern to central
portion of the Panhandle. This will include the KPUW and KLWS TAF
sites with gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph and pea sized hail a
possibility with these thunderstorms. Widespread gusty westerly
winds will commence as showers shift east behind the front.
Sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph will be
possible through Saturday afternoon. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        59  38  58  40  64  42 /  20   0  10  10  10  20
Coeur d`Alene  58  36  58  39  64  40 /  50   0  10  10  10  30
Pullman        57  38  58  41  65  42 /  40   0  10  10  10  30
Lewiston       67  40  64  42  69  44 /  20   0   0   0  10  20
Colville       63  37  60  39  64  39 /  20  10  20  10  10  30
Sandpoint      56  35  56  36  61  39 /  70   0  10  10  10  40
Kellogg        53  36  56  38  62  38 /  90  10  10  10  10  40
Moses Lake     68  39  65  40  69  44 /   0   0  10   0  10  10
Wenatchee      66  42  64  45  68  43 /  10   0  10  10  10  20
Omak           67  38  62  39  67  40 /   0  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 280956
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY END EARLY THIS MORNING AS A FRONT
MOVES INLAND. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER SYSTEMS MAINLY
NORTH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH WESTERN
WASHINGTON LATE MONDAY WITH RAIN. A COOL SHOWERY UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
MOSTLY CONCENTRATED OVER THE CASCADES AND PERHAPS A PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE NORTH OF SEATTLE TODAY.

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE RAIN THREAT MOSTLY JUST TO THE NORTH OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON. THE COAST AND NORTH CASCADES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
TO GET A LITTLE RAIN AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD. MOST OTHER AREAS
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY.

A FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSH INTO THE
INTERIOR MONDAY EVENING FOR A ROUND OF RAIN ALL AREAS. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY FOR SHOWERY WEATHER AT TIMES. MODELS SUGGEST AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN POOR
AGREEMENT WITH HOW THINGS WILL PROGRESS AFTER THAT. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SMALL UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST...AND A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT MOVING
OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA. THE
AIR MASS WILL BE WEAKLY UNSTABLE TODAY WITH MAINLY LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE...THEN BECOME STABLE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AT
MID AND HIGH LEVELS.

THERE HAS BEEN COME CLEARING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON DURING THE NIGHT...BUT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP CEILINGS GENERALLY IN THE 025-035 RANGE. SHOWERS AND
LOWER CEILINGS TO OVC020 WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL IT CONTINUES THIS MORNING...AND IT SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF SEATTLE. THERE WILL BE IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON...
AND CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY VFR TONIGHT.

KSEA...SOUTHWEST WIND 8-16 KT GUSTING 26 KT...EASING TO 6-12 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING SOUTH TONIGHT. THE PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE
ZONE SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF SEATTLE.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING WILL EASE TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. GALE FORCE WESTERLIES IN THE
CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT WILL
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS THIS MORNING...THEN EASE LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE AREA AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA LATE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IT WILL PRODUCE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLIES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND AT THE WEST
ENTRANCE STRAIT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS LIKELY AT TIMES
FOR THE INLAND WATERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST
MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.   MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL OTHER WATERS.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML








000
FXUS66 KSEW 280956
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY END EARLY THIS MORNING AS A FRONT
MOVES INLAND. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER SYSTEMS MAINLY
NORTH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH WESTERN
WASHINGTON LATE MONDAY WITH RAIN. A COOL SHOWERY UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
MOSTLY CONCENTRATED OVER THE CASCADES AND PERHAPS A PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE NORTH OF SEATTLE TODAY.

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE RAIN THREAT MOSTLY JUST TO THE NORTH OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON. THE COAST AND NORTH CASCADES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
TO GET A LITTLE RAIN AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD. MOST OTHER AREAS
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY.

A FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSH INTO THE
INTERIOR MONDAY EVENING FOR A ROUND OF RAIN ALL AREAS. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY FOR SHOWERY WEATHER AT TIMES. MODELS SUGGEST AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN POOR
AGREEMENT WITH HOW THINGS WILL PROGRESS AFTER THAT. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SMALL UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST...AND A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT MOVING
OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA. THE
AIR MASS WILL BE WEAKLY UNSTABLE TODAY WITH MAINLY LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE...THEN BECOME STABLE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AT
MID AND HIGH LEVELS.

THERE HAS BEEN COME CLEARING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON DURING THE NIGHT...BUT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP CEILINGS GENERALLY IN THE 025-035 RANGE. SHOWERS AND
LOWER CEILINGS TO OVC020 WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE PUGET SOUND
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL IT CONTINUES THIS MORNING...AND IT SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF SEATTLE. THERE WILL BE IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON...
AND CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY VFR TONIGHT.

KSEA...SOUTHWEST WIND 8-16 KT GUSTING 26 KT...EASING TO 6-12 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING SOUTH TONIGHT. THE PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE
ZONE SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF SEATTLE.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING WILL EASE TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. GALE FORCE WESTERLIES IN THE
CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT WILL
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS THIS MORNING...THEN EASE LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE AREA AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA LATE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IT WILL PRODUCE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLIES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND AT THE WEST
ENTRANCE STRAIT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS LIKELY AT TIMES
FOR THE INLAND WATERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST
MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.   MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL OTHER WATERS.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML









000
FXUS66 KPQR 280943
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
243 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. DRY AND MILD WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS MORE RAIN AND
COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA BEGINNING LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW CASCADE PASS
LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WESTERLY FLOW IS ALREADY
BEGINNING TO CREATE A VALLEY SHADOW WITH SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT HAVING PASSED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER THIS FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SHOWERS ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF THE COAST
RANGE AND CASCADES DUE TO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT THROUGH THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BY NO LATER THAN THIS
AFTERNOON AS RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA...LASTING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHEN THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES. DESPITE A
RELATIVELY DRY WEEKEND FORECAST...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER AIMED AT
SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHWEST WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT OUR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL SEE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER COMPARED TO THEIR COUNTERPARTS FARTHER SOUTH. IN ADDITION...OUR
FAR NORTHWEST ZONES MAY GET CLIPPED BY A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO
DURING THIS PERIOD.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE VALLEY
AND AROUND 60 ALONG THE COAST AND RANGING FROM ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
AGAIN MONDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT COMES ASHORE. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
FRONT WITH RAIN CHANCES OVER LAND NOT REALLY INCREASING NOW UNTIL
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A FEW INCHES
OF NOW POSSIBLE AT PASS LEVEL TUESDAY. BOWEN


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A RATHER ACTIVE WESTERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA WITH
RAIN CHANCES EVERY DAY THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. MODELS ARE STILL
TRENDING TOWARD A BREAK IN THE ACTION TOWARDS NEXT THURSDAY SO HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND POPS DOWNWARD THEN. MODELS DIVERGE FRIDAY WITH THE
ECMWF SHOWING A BUILDING RIDGE WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A FRONT
TRAVERSING THE AREA. HAVE FAVORED THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION BUT NUDGED
TOWARD CLIMO POP...ABOUT 40 PERCENT RIGHT NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
BOWEN

&&

.AVIATION...THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH HAS PROGRESSED OFF
TO THE EAST...LEAVING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. UNSTABLE
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS KEEPING INLAND SITES VFR THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH SHOWERS CLEARING OUT OF THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING. CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW IS MAKING KAST
CIGS BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS
NORTH OF KONP...WHICH IS KEEPING THIS SITE PRIMARILY VFR. WITH
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW...CIGS AT KONP WILL PROBABLY DROP DOWN TO
MVFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST...WITH VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS CURRENTLY AROUND THE TERMINAL
SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY 17Z THIS MORNING. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...WESTERLY WINDS ARE WEAKENING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS CURRENTLY
HOVERING AROUND 9 TO 10 FT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 7 TO 9 FT BY
MID-MORNING. HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS AND LOW PRES OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA MAY TIGHTEN THE SW PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH
COULD INCREASE WINDS TO LOW-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THE LOW PRES SYSTEM
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL ALSO BRING IN INCREASING WESTERLY
SWELL ON SUNDAY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO 10 TO 12 FT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY
EVENING...WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS TO THE WATERS. A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN
STORE THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING

     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 2 AM PDT
     EARLY THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 AM THIS
     MORNING TO 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 280943
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
243 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. DRY AND MILD WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS MORE RAIN AND
COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA BEGINNING LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW CASCADE PASS
LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WESTERLY FLOW IS ALREADY
BEGINNING TO CREATE A VALLEY SHADOW WITH SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT HAVING PASSED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER THIS FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SHOWERS ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF THE COAST
RANGE AND CASCADES DUE TO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT THROUGH THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BY NO LATER THAN THIS
AFTERNOON AS RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA...LASTING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHEN THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES. DESPITE A
RELATIVELY DRY WEEKEND FORECAST...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER AIMED AT
SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHWEST WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT OUR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL SEE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER COMPARED TO THEIR COUNTERPARTS FARTHER SOUTH. IN ADDITION...OUR
FAR NORTHWEST ZONES MAY GET CLIPPED BY A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO
DURING THIS PERIOD.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE VALLEY
AND AROUND 60 ALONG THE COAST AND RANGING FROM ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
AGAIN MONDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT COMES ASHORE. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
FRONT WITH RAIN CHANCES OVER LAND NOT REALLY INCREASING NOW UNTIL
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A FEW INCHES
OF NOW POSSIBLE AT PASS LEVEL TUESDAY. BOWEN


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A RATHER ACTIVE WESTERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA WITH
RAIN CHANCES EVERY DAY THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. MODELS ARE STILL
TRENDING TOWARD A BREAK IN THE ACTION TOWARDS NEXT THURSDAY SO HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND POPS DOWNWARD THEN. MODELS DIVERGE FRIDAY WITH THE
ECMWF SHOWING A BUILDING RIDGE WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A FRONT
TRAVERSING THE AREA. HAVE FAVORED THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION BUT NUDGED
TOWARD CLIMO POP...ABOUT 40 PERCENT RIGHT NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
BOWEN

&&

.AVIATION...THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH HAS PROGRESSED OFF
TO THE EAST...LEAVING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. UNSTABLE
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS KEEPING INLAND SITES VFR THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH SHOWERS CLEARING OUT OF THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING. CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW IS MAKING KAST
CIGS BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS
NORTH OF KONP...WHICH IS KEEPING THIS SITE PRIMARILY VFR. WITH
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW...CIGS AT KONP WILL PROBABLY DROP DOWN TO
MVFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST...WITH VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS CURRENTLY AROUND THE TERMINAL
SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY 17Z THIS MORNING. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...WESTERLY WINDS ARE WEAKENING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS CURRENTLY
HOVERING AROUND 9 TO 10 FT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 7 TO 9 FT BY
MID-MORNING. HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS AND LOW PRES OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA MAY TIGHTEN THE SW PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH
COULD INCREASE WINDS TO LOW-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THE LOW PRES SYSTEM
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL ALSO BRING IN INCREASING WESTERLY
SWELL ON SUNDAY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO 10 TO 12 FT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY
EVENING...WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS TO THE WATERS. A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN
STORE THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING

     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 2 AM PDT
     EARLY THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 AM THIS
     MORNING TO 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 280943
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
243 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. DRY AND MILD WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS MORE RAIN AND
COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA BEGINNING LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW CASCADE PASS
LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WESTERLY FLOW IS ALREADY
BEGINNING TO CREATE A VALLEY SHADOW WITH SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT HAVING PASSED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER THIS FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SHOWERS ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF THE COAST
RANGE AND CASCADES DUE TO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT THROUGH THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BY NO LATER THAN THIS
AFTERNOON AS RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA...LASTING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHEN THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES. DESPITE A
RELATIVELY DRY WEEKEND FORECAST...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER AIMED AT
SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHWEST WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT OUR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL SEE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER COMPARED TO THEIR COUNTERPARTS FARTHER SOUTH. IN ADDITION...OUR
FAR NORTHWEST ZONES MAY GET CLIPPED BY A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO
DURING THIS PERIOD.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE VALLEY
AND AROUND 60 ALONG THE COAST AND RANGING FROM ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
AGAIN MONDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT COMES ASHORE. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
FRONT WITH RAIN CHANCES OVER LAND NOT REALLY INCREASING NOW UNTIL
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A FEW INCHES
OF NOW POSSIBLE AT PASS LEVEL TUESDAY. BOWEN


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A RATHER ACTIVE WESTERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA WITH
RAIN CHANCES EVERY DAY THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. MODELS ARE STILL
TRENDING TOWARD A BREAK IN THE ACTION TOWARDS NEXT THURSDAY SO HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND POPS DOWNWARD THEN. MODELS DIVERGE FRIDAY WITH THE
ECMWF SHOWING A BUILDING RIDGE WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A FRONT
TRAVERSING THE AREA. HAVE FAVORED THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION BUT NUDGED
TOWARD CLIMO POP...ABOUT 40 PERCENT RIGHT NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
BOWEN

&&

.AVIATION...THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH HAS PROGRESSED OFF
TO THE EAST...LEAVING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. UNSTABLE
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS KEEPING INLAND SITES VFR THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH SHOWERS CLEARING OUT OF THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING. CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW IS MAKING KAST
CIGS BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS
NORTH OF KONP...WHICH IS KEEPING THIS SITE PRIMARILY VFR. WITH
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW...CIGS AT KONP WILL PROBABLY DROP DOWN TO
MVFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST...WITH VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS CURRENTLY AROUND THE TERMINAL
SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY 17Z THIS MORNING. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...WESTERLY WINDS ARE WEAKENING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS CURRENTLY
HOVERING AROUND 9 TO 10 FT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 7 TO 9 FT BY
MID-MORNING. HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS AND LOW PRES OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA MAY TIGHTEN THE SW PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH
COULD INCREASE WINDS TO LOW-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THE LOW PRES SYSTEM
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL ALSO BRING IN INCREASING WESTERLY
SWELL ON SUNDAY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO 10 TO 12 FT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY
EVENING...WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS TO THE WATERS. A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN
STORE THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING

     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 2 AM PDT
     EARLY THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 AM THIS
     MORNING TO 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 280943
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
243 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. DRY AND MILD WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS MORE RAIN AND
COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA BEGINNING LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW CASCADE PASS
LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WESTERLY FLOW IS ALREADY
BEGINNING TO CREATE A VALLEY SHADOW WITH SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT HAVING PASSED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER THIS FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SHOWERS ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF THE COAST
RANGE AND CASCADES DUE TO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT THROUGH THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BY NO LATER THAN THIS
AFTERNOON AS RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA...LASTING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHEN THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES. DESPITE A
RELATIVELY DRY WEEKEND FORECAST...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER AIMED AT
SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHWEST WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT OUR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL SEE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER COMPARED TO THEIR COUNTERPARTS FARTHER SOUTH. IN ADDITION...OUR
FAR NORTHWEST ZONES MAY GET CLIPPED BY A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO
DURING THIS PERIOD.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE VALLEY
AND AROUND 60 ALONG THE COAST AND RANGING FROM ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
AGAIN MONDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT COMES ASHORE. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
FRONT WITH RAIN CHANCES OVER LAND NOT REALLY INCREASING NOW UNTIL
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A FEW INCHES
OF NOW POSSIBLE AT PASS LEVEL TUESDAY. BOWEN


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A RATHER ACTIVE WESTERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA WITH
RAIN CHANCES EVERY DAY THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. MODELS ARE STILL
TRENDING TOWARD A BREAK IN THE ACTION TOWARDS NEXT THURSDAY SO HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND POPS DOWNWARD THEN. MODELS DIVERGE FRIDAY WITH THE
ECMWF SHOWING A BUILDING RIDGE WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A FRONT
TRAVERSING THE AREA. HAVE FAVORED THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION BUT NUDGED
TOWARD CLIMO POP...ABOUT 40 PERCENT RIGHT NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
BOWEN

&&

.AVIATION...THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH HAS PROGRESSED OFF
TO THE EAST...LEAVING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. UNSTABLE
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS KEEPING INLAND SITES VFR THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH SHOWERS CLEARING OUT OF THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING. CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW IS MAKING KAST
CIGS BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS
NORTH OF KONP...WHICH IS KEEPING THIS SITE PRIMARILY VFR. WITH
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW...CIGS AT KONP WILL PROBABLY DROP DOWN TO
MVFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST...WITH VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS CURRENTLY AROUND THE TERMINAL
SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY 17Z THIS MORNING. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...WESTERLY WINDS ARE WEAKENING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS CURRENTLY
HOVERING AROUND 9 TO 10 FT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 7 TO 9 FT BY
MID-MORNING. HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS AND LOW PRES OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA MAY TIGHTEN THE SW PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH
COULD INCREASE WINDS TO LOW-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THE LOW PRES SYSTEM
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL ALSO BRING IN INCREASING WESTERLY
SWELL ON SUNDAY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO 10 TO 12 FT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY
EVENING...WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS TO THE WATERS. A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN
STORE THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING

     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 2 AM PDT
     EARLY THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 AM THIS
     MORNING TO 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 280943
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
243 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. DRY AND MILD WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS MORE RAIN AND
COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA BEGINNING LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW CASCADE PASS
LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WESTERLY FLOW IS ALREADY
BEGINNING TO CREATE A VALLEY SHADOW WITH SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT HAVING PASSED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER THIS FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SHOWERS ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF THE COAST
RANGE AND CASCADES DUE TO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT THROUGH THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BY NO LATER THAN THIS
AFTERNOON AS RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA...LASTING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHEN THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES. DESPITE A
RELATIVELY DRY WEEKEND FORECAST...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER AIMED AT
SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHWEST WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT OUR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL SEE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER COMPARED TO THEIR COUNTERPARTS FARTHER SOUTH. IN ADDITION...OUR
FAR NORTHWEST ZONES MAY GET CLIPPED BY A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO
DURING THIS PERIOD.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE VALLEY
AND AROUND 60 ALONG THE COAST AND RANGING FROM ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
AGAIN MONDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT COMES ASHORE. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
FRONT WITH RAIN CHANCES OVER LAND NOT REALLY INCREASING NOW UNTIL
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A FEW INCHES
OF NOW POSSIBLE AT PASS LEVEL TUESDAY. BOWEN


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A RATHER ACTIVE WESTERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA WITH
RAIN CHANCES EVERY DAY THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. MODELS ARE STILL
TRENDING TOWARD A BREAK IN THE ACTION TOWARDS NEXT THURSDAY SO HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND POPS DOWNWARD THEN. MODELS DIVERGE FRIDAY WITH THE
ECMWF SHOWING A BUILDING RIDGE WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A FRONT
TRAVERSING THE AREA. HAVE FAVORED THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION BUT NUDGED
TOWARD CLIMO POP...ABOUT 40 PERCENT RIGHT NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
BOWEN

&&

.AVIATION...THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH HAS PROGRESSED OFF
TO THE EAST...LEAVING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. UNSTABLE
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS KEEPING INLAND SITES VFR THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH SHOWERS CLEARING OUT OF THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING. CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW IS MAKING KAST
CIGS BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS
NORTH OF KONP...WHICH IS KEEPING THIS SITE PRIMARILY VFR. WITH
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW...CIGS AT KONP WILL PROBABLY DROP DOWN TO
MVFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST...WITH VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS CURRENTLY AROUND THE TERMINAL
SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY 17Z THIS MORNING. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...WESTERLY WINDS ARE WEAKENING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS CURRENTLY
HOVERING AROUND 9 TO 10 FT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 7 TO 9 FT BY
MID-MORNING. HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS AND LOW PRES OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA MAY TIGHTEN THE SW PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH
COULD INCREASE WINDS TO LOW-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THE LOW PRES SYSTEM
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL ALSO BRING IN INCREASING WESTERLY
SWELL ON SUNDAY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO 10 TO 12 FT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY
EVENING...WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS TO THE WATERS. A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN
STORE THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING

     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 2 AM PDT
     EARLY THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 AM THIS
     MORNING TO 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 280554
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1054 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving cold front will arrive tonight bringing widespread
showers, gusty winds, and the potential for thunderstorms to
southeast Washington and portions of the Idaho Panhandle. Saturday
will be quite windy with gusts of 40 mph possible over Palouse,
West Plains, and Upper Columbia Basin. The weather Sunday and
Monday should be mild and relatively dry. Another fast moving
front on Tuesday will bring more showers and wind.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: The cold front is just beginning to push into
western WA late this evening. Mid levels of the atmosphere will
continue to moisten across the forecast area ahead of the cold
front. A shallow pocket of mid level instability will exist
between 650-400 mbs across much of the region, especially across
the southern portions of the region. Even though this instability
is weak and relatively shallow, it is in a favorable location for
generating some charge separation. This will at least result in a
small chance for some isolated lightning strikes across the basin,
into the Okanogan Highlands and over to the ID Panhandle.

The axis of best instability continues to be from the northeast
Blue Mtns of OR up through southeast WA and into the southern to
central ID Panhandle. This is where the best potential for
thunderstorms exist through the rest of this evening. Occasional
cloud to ground lightning strikes, pea sized hail and gusty
outflow winds of up to 40 mph will be possible with any
thunderstorms that develop across this area. Instability becomes
even weaker the further north, so any thunderstorms that do
develop are expected to have as much of an impact.

Cold front passage is still on track for the overnight hours. The
new 00Z NAM model guidance has the cold front pushing east of the
Cascades around 11 PM and then into the ID Panhandle between
9-12Z. Showers will increase in coverage across the area between
this time. Winds will then become gusty with frontal passage. The
GFS continues to be the strongest guidance with the winds, but is
more of an outlier. Most of the other model guidance has the
strongest winds across the Blue Mtns and into the Palouse. The
Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane Area and Coeur d`Alene Area will
also see some good wind gusts with the front that will continue
into the morning hours on Saturday. Sustained winds of up around
20-30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph will be possible. These winds
will then gradually decrease through the afternoon on Saturday.
No changes to the current Wind Advisory are expected at this time.
/SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A vigorous cold front will sweep across the region
overnight. Showers will increase across the region between 06-12Z
and then begin to shift eastward with frontal passage. Some of the
stronger cells will be capable of producing thunderstorms and/or
produce brief heavy rain. Best chances for thunderstorms will be
through 10Z across southeast WA and into the southern to central
portion of the Panhandle. This will include the KPUW and KLWS TAF
sites with gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph and pea sized hail a
possibility with these thunderstorms. Widespread gusty westerly
winds will commence as showers shift east behind the front.
Sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph will be
possible through Saturday afternoon. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  60  39  59  40  62 /  80  40   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  45  59  38  59  38  63 /  90  70   0  10  10  10
Pullman        46  58  40  58  41  64 /  90  40   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       51  64  41  63  42  68 /  90  20   0   0  10  10
Colville       44  63  39  60  39  63 /  70  60   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      45  56  38  57  36  62 / 100  90   0  10  10  10
Kellogg        42  53  36  56  38  60 / 100 100   0  10  10  10
Moses Lake     48  65  40  65  39  67 /  30  10   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      48  65  43  65  44  68 /  20  10   0  10  10  10
Omak           44  65  39  64  39  66 /  20  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Saturday for Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Saturday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 280554
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1054 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving cold front will arrive tonight bringing widespread
showers, gusty winds, and the potential for thunderstorms to
southeast Washington and portions of the Idaho Panhandle. Saturday
will be quite windy with gusts of 40 mph possible over Palouse,
West Plains, and Upper Columbia Basin. The weather Sunday and
Monday should be mild and relatively dry. Another fast moving
front on Tuesday will bring more showers and wind.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: The cold front is just beginning to push into
western WA late this evening. Mid levels of the atmosphere will
continue to moisten across the forecast area ahead of the cold
front. A shallow pocket of mid level instability will exist
between 650-400 mbs across much of the region, especially across
the southern portions of the region. Even though this instability
is weak and relatively shallow, it is in a favorable location for
generating some charge separation. This will at least result in a
small chance for some isolated lightning strikes across the basin,
into the Okanogan Highlands and over to the ID Panhandle.

The axis of best instability continues to be from the northeast
Blue Mtns of OR up through southeast WA and into the southern to
central ID Panhandle. This is where the best potential for
thunderstorms exist through the rest of this evening. Occasional
cloud to ground lightning strikes, pea sized hail and gusty
outflow winds of up to 40 mph will be possible with any
thunderstorms that develop across this area. Instability becomes
even weaker the further north, so any thunderstorms that do
develop are expected to have as much of an impact.

Cold front passage is still on track for the overnight hours. The
new 00Z NAM model guidance has the cold front pushing east of the
Cascades around 11 PM and then into the ID Panhandle between
9-12Z. Showers will increase in coverage across the area between
this time. Winds will then become gusty with frontal passage. The
GFS continues to be the strongest guidance with the winds, but is
more of an outlier. Most of the other model guidance has the
strongest winds across the Blue Mtns and into the Palouse. The
Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane Area and Coeur d`Alene Area will
also see some good wind gusts with the front that will continue
into the morning hours on Saturday. Sustained winds of up around
20-30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph will be possible. These winds
will then gradually decrease through the afternoon on Saturday.
No changes to the current Wind Advisory are expected at this time.
/SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A vigorous cold front will sweep across the region
overnight. Showers will increase across the region between 06-12Z
and then begin to shift eastward with frontal passage. Some of the
stronger cells will be capable of producing thunderstorms and/or
produce brief heavy rain. Best chances for thunderstorms will be
through 10Z across southeast WA and into the southern to central
portion of the Panhandle. This will include the KPUW and KLWS TAF
sites with gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph and pea sized hail a
possibility with these thunderstorms. Widespread gusty westerly
winds will commence as showers shift east behind the front.
Sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph will be
possible through Saturday afternoon. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  60  39  59  40  62 /  80  40   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  45  59  38  59  38  63 /  90  70   0  10  10  10
Pullman        46  58  40  58  41  64 /  90  40   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       51  64  41  63  42  68 /  90  20   0   0  10  10
Colville       44  63  39  60  39  63 /  70  60   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      45  56  38  57  36  62 / 100  90   0  10  10  10
Kellogg        42  53  36  56  38  60 / 100 100   0  10  10  10
Moses Lake     48  65  40  65  39  67 /  30  10   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      48  65  43  65  44  68 /  20  10   0  10  10  10
Omak           44  65  39  64  39  66 /  20  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Saturday for Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Saturday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 280554
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1054 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving cold front will arrive tonight bringing widespread
showers, gusty winds, and the potential for thunderstorms to
southeast Washington and portions of the Idaho Panhandle. Saturday
will be quite windy with gusts of 40 mph possible over Palouse,
West Plains, and Upper Columbia Basin. The weather Sunday and
Monday should be mild and relatively dry. Another fast moving
front on Tuesday will bring more showers and wind.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: The cold front is just beginning to push into
western WA late this evening. Mid levels of the atmosphere will
continue to moisten across the forecast area ahead of the cold
front. A shallow pocket of mid level instability will exist
between 650-400 mbs across much of the region, especially across
the southern portions of the region. Even though this instability
is weak and relatively shallow, it is in a favorable location for
generating some charge separation. This will at least result in a
small chance for some isolated lightning strikes across the basin,
into the Okanogan Highlands and over to the ID Panhandle.

The axis of best instability continues to be from the northeast
Blue Mtns of OR up through southeast WA and into the southern to
central ID Panhandle. This is where the best potential for
thunderstorms exist through the rest of this evening. Occasional
cloud to ground lightning strikes, pea sized hail and gusty
outflow winds of up to 40 mph will be possible with any
thunderstorms that develop across this area. Instability becomes
even weaker the further north, so any thunderstorms that do
develop are expected to have as much of an impact.

Cold front passage is still on track for the overnight hours. The
new 00Z NAM model guidance has the cold front pushing east of the
Cascades around 11 PM and then into the ID Panhandle between
9-12Z. Showers will increase in coverage across the area between
this time. Winds will then become gusty with frontal passage. The
GFS continues to be the strongest guidance with the winds, but is
more of an outlier. Most of the other model guidance has the
strongest winds across the Blue Mtns and into the Palouse. The
Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane Area and Coeur d`Alene Area will
also see some good wind gusts with the front that will continue
into the morning hours on Saturday. Sustained winds of up around
20-30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph will be possible. These winds
will then gradually decrease through the afternoon on Saturday.
No changes to the current Wind Advisory are expected at this time.
/SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A vigorous cold front will sweep across the region
overnight. Showers will increase across the region between 06-12Z
and then begin to shift eastward with frontal passage. Some of the
stronger cells will be capable of producing thunderstorms and/or
produce brief heavy rain. Best chances for thunderstorms will be
through 10Z across southeast WA and into the southern to central
portion of the Panhandle. This will include the KPUW and KLWS TAF
sites with gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph and pea sized hail a
possibility with these thunderstorms. Widespread gusty westerly
winds will commence as showers shift east behind the front.
Sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph will be
possible through Saturday afternoon. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  60  39  59  40  62 /  80  40   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  45  59  38  59  38  63 /  90  70   0  10  10  10
Pullman        46  58  40  58  41  64 /  90  40   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       51  64  41  63  42  68 /  90  20   0   0  10  10
Colville       44  63  39  60  39  63 /  70  60   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      45  56  38  57  36  62 / 100  90   0  10  10  10
Kellogg        42  53  36  56  38  60 / 100 100   0  10  10  10
Moses Lake     48  65  40  65  39  67 /  30  10   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      48  65  43  65  44  68 /  20  10   0  10  10  10
Omak           44  65  39  64  39  66 /  20  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Saturday for Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Saturday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 280554
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1054 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving cold front will arrive tonight bringing widespread
showers, gusty winds, and the potential for thunderstorms to
southeast Washington and portions of the Idaho Panhandle. Saturday
will be quite windy with gusts of 40 mph possible over Palouse,
West Plains, and Upper Columbia Basin. The weather Sunday and
Monday should be mild and relatively dry. Another fast moving
front on Tuesday will bring more showers and wind.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: The cold front is just beginning to push into
western WA late this evening. Mid levels of the atmosphere will
continue to moisten across the forecast area ahead of the cold
front. A shallow pocket of mid level instability will exist
between 650-400 mbs across much of the region, especially across
the southern portions of the region. Even though this instability
is weak and relatively shallow, it is in a favorable location for
generating some charge separation. This will at least result in a
small chance for some isolated lightning strikes across the basin,
into the Okanogan Highlands and over to the ID Panhandle.

The axis of best instability continues to be from the northeast
Blue Mtns of OR up through southeast WA and into the southern to
central ID Panhandle. This is where the best potential for
thunderstorms exist through the rest of this evening. Occasional
cloud to ground lightning strikes, pea sized hail and gusty
outflow winds of up to 40 mph will be possible with any
thunderstorms that develop across this area. Instability becomes
even weaker the further north, so any thunderstorms that do
develop are expected to have as much of an impact.

Cold front passage is still on track for the overnight hours. The
new 00Z NAM model guidance has the cold front pushing east of the
Cascades around 11 PM and then into the ID Panhandle between
9-12Z. Showers will increase in coverage across the area between
this time. Winds will then become gusty with frontal passage. The
GFS continues to be the strongest guidance with the winds, but is
more of an outlier. Most of the other model guidance has the
strongest winds across the Blue Mtns and into the Palouse. The
Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane Area and Coeur d`Alene Area will
also see some good wind gusts with the front that will continue
into the morning hours on Saturday. Sustained winds of up around
20-30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph will be possible. These winds
will then gradually decrease through the afternoon on Saturday.
No changes to the current Wind Advisory are expected at this time.
/SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A vigorous cold front will sweep across the region
overnight. Showers will increase across the region between 06-12Z
and then begin to shift eastward with frontal passage. Some of the
stronger cells will be capable of producing thunderstorms and/or
produce brief heavy rain. Best chances for thunderstorms will be
through 10Z across southeast WA and into the southern to central
portion of the Panhandle. This will include the KPUW and KLWS TAF
sites with gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph and pea sized hail a
possibility with these thunderstorms. Widespread gusty westerly
winds will commence as showers shift east behind the front.
Sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph will be
possible through Saturday afternoon. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  60  39  59  40  62 /  80  40   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  45  59  38  59  38  63 /  90  70   0  10  10  10
Pullman        46  58  40  58  41  64 /  90  40   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       51  64  41  63  42  68 /  90  20   0   0  10  10
Colville       44  63  39  60  39  63 /  70  60   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      45  56  38  57  36  62 / 100  90   0  10  10  10
Kellogg        42  53  36  56  38  60 / 100 100   0  10  10  10
Moses Lake     48  65  40  65  39  67 /  30  10   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      48  65  43  65  44  68 /  20  10   0  10  10  10
Omak           44  65  39  64  39  66 /  20  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Saturday for Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Saturday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 280554
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1054 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving cold front will arrive tonight bringing widespread
showers, gusty winds, and the potential for thunderstorms to
southeast Washington and portions of the Idaho Panhandle. Saturday
will be quite windy with gusts of 40 mph possible over Palouse,
West Plains, and Upper Columbia Basin. The weather Sunday and
Monday should be mild and relatively dry. Another fast moving
front on Tuesday will bring more showers and wind.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: The cold front is just beginning to push into
western WA late this evening. Mid levels of the atmosphere will
continue to moisten across the forecast area ahead of the cold
front. A shallow pocket of mid level instability will exist
between 650-400 mbs across much of the region, especially across
the southern portions of the region. Even though this instability
is weak and relatively shallow, it is in a favorable location for
generating some charge separation. This will at least result in a
small chance for some isolated lightning strikes across the basin,
into the Okanogan Highlands and over to the ID Panhandle.

The axis of best instability continues to be from the northeast
Blue Mtns of OR up through southeast WA and into the southern to
central ID Panhandle. This is where the best potential for
thunderstorms exist through the rest of this evening. Occasional
cloud to ground lightning strikes, pea sized hail and gusty
outflow winds of up to 40 mph will be possible with any
thunderstorms that develop across this area. Instability becomes
even weaker the further north, so any thunderstorms that do
develop are expected to have as much of an impact.

Cold front passage is still on track for the overnight hours. The
new 00Z NAM model guidance has the cold front pushing east of the
Cascades around 11 PM and then into the ID Panhandle between
9-12Z. Showers will increase in coverage across the area between
this time. Winds will then become gusty with frontal passage. The
GFS continues to be the strongest guidance with the winds, but is
more of an outlier. Most of the other model guidance has the
strongest winds across the Blue Mtns and into the Palouse. The
Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane Area and Coeur d`Alene Area will
also see some good wind gusts with the front that will continue
into the morning hours on Saturday. Sustained winds of up around
20-30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph will be possible. These winds
will then gradually decrease through the afternoon on Saturday.
No changes to the current Wind Advisory are expected at this time.
/SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A vigorous cold front will sweep across the region
overnight. Showers will increase across the region between 06-12Z
and then begin to shift eastward with frontal passage. Some of the
stronger cells will be capable of producing thunderstorms and/or
produce brief heavy rain. Best chances for thunderstorms will be
through 10Z across southeast WA and into the southern to central
portion of the Panhandle. This will include the KPUW and KLWS TAF
sites with gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph and pea sized hail a
possibility with these thunderstorms. Widespread gusty westerly
winds will commence as showers shift east behind the front.
Sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph will be
possible through Saturday afternoon. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  60  39  59  40  62 /  80  40   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  45  59  38  59  38  63 /  90  70   0  10  10  10
Pullman        46  58  40  58  41  64 /  90  40   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       51  64  41  63  42  68 /  90  20   0   0  10  10
Colville       44  63  39  60  39  63 /  70  60   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      45  56  38  57  36  62 / 100  90   0  10  10  10
Kellogg        42  53  36  56  38  60 / 100 100   0  10  10  10
Moses Lake     48  65  40  65  39  67 /  30  10   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      48  65  43  65  44  68 /  20  10   0  10  10  10
Omak           44  65  39  64  39  66 /  20  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Saturday for Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Saturday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 280554
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1054 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving cold front will arrive tonight bringing widespread
showers, gusty winds, and the potential for thunderstorms to
southeast Washington and portions of the Idaho Panhandle. Saturday
will be quite windy with gusts of 40 mph possible over Palouse,
West Plains, and Upper Columbia Basin. The weather Sunday and
Monday should be mild and relatively dry. Another fast moving
front on Tuesday will bring more showers and wind.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: The cold front is just beginning to push into
western WA late this evening. Mid levels of the atmosphere will
continue to moisten across the forecast area ahead of the cold
front. A shallow pocket of mid level instability will exist
between 650-400 mbs across much of the region, especially across
the southern portions of the region. Even though this instability
is weak and relatively shallow, it is in a favorable location for
generating some charge separation. This will at least result in a
small chance for some isolated lightning strikes across the basin,
into the Okanogan Highlands and over to the ID Panhandle.

The axis of best instability continues to be from the northeast
Blue Mtns of OR up through southeast WA and into the southern to
central ID Panhandle. This is where the best potential for
thunderstorms exist through the rest of this evening. Occasional
cloud to ground lightning strikes, pea sized hail and gusty
outflow winds of up to 40 mph will be possible with any
thunderstorms that develop across this area. Instability becomes
even weaker the further north, so any thunderstorms that do
develop are expected to have as much of an impact.

Cold front passage is still on track for the overnight hours. The
new 00Z NAM model guidance has the cold front pushing east of the
Cascades around 11 PM and then into the ID Panhandle between
9-12Z. Showers will increase in coverage across the area between
this time. Winds will then become gusty with frontal passage. The
GFS continues to be the strongest guidance with the winds, but is
more of an outlier. Most of the other model guidance has the
strongest winds across the Blue Mtns and into the Palouse. The
Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane Area and Coeur d`Alene Area will
also see some good wind gusts with the front that will continue
into the morning hours on Saturday. Sustained winds of up around
20-30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph will be possible. These winds
will then gradually decrease through the afternoon on Saturday.
No changes to the current Wind Advisory are expected at this time.
/SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A vigorous cold front will sweep across the region
overnight. Showers will increase across the region between 06-12Z
and then begin to shift eastward with frontal passage. Some of the
stronger cells will be capable of producing thunderstorms and/or
produce brief heavy rain. Best chances for thunderstorms will be
through 10Z across southeast WA and into the southern to central
portion of the Panhandle. This will include the KPUW and KLWS TAF
sites with gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph and pea sized hail a
possibility with these thunderstorms. Widespread gusty westerly
winds will commence as showers shift east behind the front.
Sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph will be
possible through Saturday afternoon. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  60  39  59  40  62 /  80  40   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  45  59  38  59  38  63 /  90  70   0  10  10  10
Pullman        46  58  40  58  41  64 /  90  40   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       51  64  41  63  42  68 /  90  20   0   0  10  10
Colville       44  63  39  60  39  63 /  70  60   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      45  56  38  57  36  62 / 100  90   0  10  10  10
Kellogg        42  53  36  56  38  60 / 100 100   0  10  10  10
Moses Lake     48  65  40  65  39  67 /  30  10   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      48  65  43  65  44  68 /  20  10   0  10  10  10
Omak           44  65  39  64  39  66 /  20  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Saturday for Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Saturday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 280410
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
909 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving cold front will arrive tonight bringing widespread
showers, gusty winds, and the potential for thunderstorms to
southeast Washington and portions of the Idaho Panhandle. Saturday
will be quite windy with gusts of 40 mph possible over Palouse,
West Plains, and Upper Columbia Basin. The weather Sunday and
Monday should be mild and relatively dry. Another fast moving
front on Tuesday will bring more showers and wind.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: The cold front is just beginning to push into
western WA late this evening. Mid levels of the atmosphere will
continue to moisten across the forecast area ahead of the cold
front. A shallow pocket of mid level instability will exist
between 650-400 mbs across much of the region, especially across
the southern portions of the region. Even though this instability
is weak and relatively shallow, it is in a favorable location for
generating some charge separation. This will at least result in a
small chance for some isolated lightning strikes across the basin,
into the Okanogan Highlands and over to the ID Panhandle.

The axis of best instability continues to be from the northeast
Blue Mtns of OR up through southeast WA and into the southern to
central ID Panhandle. This is where the best potential for
thunderstorms exist through the rest of this evening. Occasional
cloud to ground lightning strikes, pea sized hail and gusty
outflow winds of up to 40 mph will be possible with any
thunderstorms that develop across this area. Instability becomes
even weaker the further north, so any thunderstorms that do
develop are expected to have as much of an impact.

Cold front passage is still on track for the overnight hours. The
new 00Z NAM model guidance has the cold front pushing east of the
Cascades around 11 PM and then into the ID Panhandle between
9-12Z. Showers will increase in coverage across the area between
this time. Winds will then become gusty with frontal passage. The
GFS continues to be the strongest guidance with the winds, but is
more of an outlier. Most of the other model guidance has the
strongest winds across the Blue Mtns and into the Palouse. The
Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane Area and Coeur d`Alene Area will
also see some good wind gusts with the front that will continue
into the morning hours on Saturday. Sustained winds of up around
20-30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph will be possible. These winds
will then gradually decrease through the afternoon on Saturday.
No changes to the current Wind Advisory are expected at this time.
/SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A vigorous cold front will sweep across the region
overnight. The atmosphere will gradually destabilize through this
evening with strong forcing along the front expected to break the
cap holding down convection this afternoon. Best instability will
be located from northeast OR, southeast WA and into the Central
Panhandle Mtns. Confidence is high that thunderstorms will develop
this evening along this axis and impact the KLWS TAF site. KPUW
will also see a chance for thunderstorms this evening, but
confidence is slightly lower. Moderate to heavy showers will then
blossom ahead of the front east of a line from KEPI to KOMK.
These showers may result in brief MVFR cigs/vis into the early
morning hours on Saturday. Gusty westerly winds will also
accompany the front overnight and continue into Saturday
afternoon. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  60  39  59  40  62 /  80  40   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  45  59  38  59  38  63 /  90  70   0  10  10  10
Pullman        46  58  40  58  41  64 /  90  40   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       51  64  41  63  42  68 /  90  20   0   0  10  10
Colville       44  63  39  60  39  63 /  70  60   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      45  56  38  57  36  62 / 100  90   0  10  10  10
Kellogg        42  53  36  56  38  60 / 100 100   0  10  10  10
Moses Lake     48  65  40  65  39  67 /  30  10   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      48  65  43  65  44  68 /  20  10   0  10  10  10
Omak           44  65  39  64  39  66 /  20  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Saturday for Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Saturday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 280410
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
909 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving cold front will arrive tonight bringing widespread
showers, gusty winds, and the potential for thunderstorms to
southeast Washington and portions of the Idaho Panhandle. Saturday
will be quite windy with gusts of 40 mph possible over Palouse,
West Plains, and Upper Columbia Basin. The weather Sunday and
Monday should be mild and relatively dry. Another fast moving
front on Tuesday will bring more showers and wind.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: The cold front is just beginning to push into
western WA late this evening. Mid levels of the atmosphere will
continue to moisten across the forecast area ahead of the cold
front. A shallow pocket of mid level instability will exist
between 650-400 mbs across much of the region, especially across
the southern portions of the region. Even though this instability
is weak and relatively shallow, it is in a favorable location for
generating some charge separation. This will at least result in a
small chance for some isolated lightning strikes across the basin,
into the Okanogan Highlands and over to the ID Panhandle.

The axis of best instability continues to be from the northeast
Blue Mtns of OR up through southeast WA and into the southern to
central ID Panhandle. This is where the best potential for
thunderstorms exist through the rest of this evening. Occasional
cloud to ground lightning strikes, pea sized hail and gusty
outflow winds of up to 40 mph will be possible with any
thunderstorms that develop across this area. Instability becomes
even weaker the further north, so any thunderstorms that do
develop are expected to have as much of an impact.

Cold front passage is still on track for the overnight hours. The
new 00Z NAM model guidance has the cold front pushing east of the
Cascades around 11 PM and then into the ID Panhandle between
9-12Z. Showers will increase in coverage across the area between
this time. Winds will then become gusty with frontal passage. The
GFS continues to be the strongest guidance with the winds, but is
more of an outlier. Most of the other model guidance has the
strongest winds across the Blue Mtns and into the Palouse. The
Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane Area and Coeur d`Alene Area will
also see some good wind gusts with the front that will continue
into the morning hours on Saturday. Sustained winds of up around
20-30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph will be possible. These winds
will then gradually decrease through the afternoon on Saturday.
No changes to the current Wind Advisory are expected at this time.
/SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A vigorous cold front will sweep across the region
overnight. The atmosphere will gradually destabilize through this
evening with strong forcing along the front expected to break the
cap holding down convection this afternoon. Best instability will
be located from northeast OR, southeast WA and into the Central
Panhandle Mtns. Confidence is high that thunderstorms will develop
this evening along this axis and impact the KLWS TAF site. KPUW
will also see a chance for thunderstorms this evening, but
confidence is slightly lower. Moderate to heavy showers will then
blossom ahead of the front east of a line from KEPI to KOMK.
These showers may result in brief MVFR cigs/vis into the early
morning hours on Saturday. Gusty westerly winds will also
accompany the front overnight and continue into Saturday
afternoon. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  60  39  59  40  62 /  80  40   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  45  59  38  59  38  63 /  90  70   0  10  10  10
Pullman        46  58  40  58  41  64 /  90  40   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       51  64  41  63  42  68 /  90  20   0   0  10  10
Colville       44  63  39  60  39  63 /  70  60   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      45  56  38  57  36  62 / 100  90   0  10  10  10
Kellogg        42  53  36  56  38  60 / 100 100   0  10  10  10
Moses Lake     48  65  40  65  39  67 /  30  10   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      48  65  43  65  44  68 /  20  10   0  10  10  10
Omak           44  65  39  64  39  66 /  20  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Saturday for Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Saturday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 280410
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
909 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving cold front will arrive tonight bringing widespread
showers, gusty winds, and the potential for thunderstorms to
southeast Washington and portions of the Idaho Panhandle. Saturday
will be quite windy with gusts of 40 mph possible over Palouse,
West Plains, and Upper Columbia Basin. The weather Sunday and
Monday should be mild and relatively dry. Another fast moving
front on Tuesday will bring more showers and wind.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: The cold front is just beginning to push into
western WA late this evening. Mid levels of the atmosphere will
continue to moisten across the forecast area ahead of the cold
front. A shallow pocket of mid level instability will exist
between 650-400 mbs across much of the region, especially across
the southern portions of the region. Even though this instability
is weak and relatively shallow, it is in a favorable location for
generating some charge separation. This will at least result in a
small chance for some isolated lightning strikes across the basin,
into the Okanogan Highlands and over to the ID Panhandle.

The axis of best instability continues to be from the northeast
Blue Mtns of OR up through southeast WA and into the southern to
central ID Panhandle. This is where the best potential for
thunderstorms exist through the rest of this evening. Occasional
cloud to ground lightning strikes, pea sized hail and gusty
outflow winds of up to 40 mph will be possible with any
thunderstorms that develop across this area. Instability becomes
even weaker the further north, so any thunderstorms that do
develop are expected to have as much of an impact.

Cold front passage is still on track for the overnight hours. The
new 00Z NAM model guidance has the cold front pushing east of the
Cascades around 11 PM and then into the ID Panhandle between
9-12Z. Showers will increase in coverage across the area between
this time. Winds will then become gusty with frontal passage. The
GFS continues to be the strongest guidance with the winds, but is
more of an outlier. Most of the other model guidance has the
strongest winds across the Blue Mtns and into the Palouse. The
Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane Area and Coeur d`Alene Area will
also see some good wind gusts with the front that will continue
into the morning hours on Saturday. Sustained winds of up around
20-30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph will be possible. These winds
will then gradually decrease through the afternoon on Saturday.
No changes to the current Wind Advisory are expected at this time.
/SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A vigorous cold front will sweep across the region
overnight. The atmosphere will gradually destabilize through this
evening with strong forcing along the front expected to break the
cap holding down convection this afternoon. Best instability will
be located from northeast OR, southeast WA and into the Central
Panhandle Mtns. Confidence is high that thunderstorms will develop
this evening along this axis and impact the KLWS TAF site. KPUW
will also see a chance for thunderstorms this evening, but
confidence is slightly lower. Moderate to heavy showers will then
blossom ahead of the front east of a line from KEPI to KOMK.
These showers may result in brief MVFR cigs/vis into the early
morning hours on Saturday. Gusty westerly winds will also
accompany the front overnight and continue into Saturday
afternoon. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  60  39  59  40  62 /  80  40   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  45  59  38  59  38  63 /  90  70   0  10  10  10
Pullman        46  58  40  58  41  64 /  90  40   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       51  64  41  63  42  68 /  90  20   0   0  10  10
Colville       44  63  39  60  39  63 /  70  60   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      45  56  38  57  36  62 / 100  90   0  10  10  10
Kellogg        42  53  36  56  38  60 / 100 100   0  10  10  10
Moses Lake     48  65  40  65  39  67 /  30  10   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      48  65  43  65  44  68 /  20  10   0  10  10  10
Omak           44  65  39  64  39  66 /  20  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Saturday for Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Saturday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 280410
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
909 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving cold front will arrive tonight bringing widespread
showers, gusty winds, and the potential for thunderstorms to
southeast Washington and portions of the Idaho Panhandle. Saturday
will be quite windy with gusts of 40 mph possible over Palouse,
West Plains, and Upper Columbia Basin. The weather Sunday and
Monday should be mild and relatively dry. Another fast moving
front on Tuesday will bring more showers and wind.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: The cold front is just beginning to push into
western WA late this evening. Mid levels of the atmosphere will
continue to moisten across the forecast area ahead of the cold
front. A shallow pocket of mid level instability will exist
between 650-400 mbs across much of the region, especially across
the southern portions of the region. Even though this instability
is weak and relatively shallow, it is in a favorable location for
generating some charge separation. This will at least result in a
small chance for some isolated lightning strikes across the basin,
into the Okanogan Highlands and over to the ID Panhandle.

The axis of best instability continues to be from the northeast
Blue Mtns of OR up through southeast WA and into the southern to
central ID Panhandle. This is where the best potential for
thunderstorms exist through the rest of this evening. Occasional
cloud to ground lightning strikes, pea sized hail and gusty
outflow winds of up to 40 mph will be possible with any
thunderstorms that develop across this area. Instability becomes
even weaker the further north, so any thunderstorms that do
develop are expected to have as much of an impact.

Cold front passage is still on track for the overnight hours. The
new 00Z NAM model guidance has the cold front pushing east of the
Cascades around 11 PM and then into the ID Panhandle between
9-12Z. Showers will increase in coverage across the area between
this time. Winds will then become gusty with frontal passage. The
GFS continues to be the strongest guidance with the winds, but is
more of an outlier. Most of the other model guidance has the
strongest winds across the Blue Mtns and into the Palouse. The
Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane Area and Coeur d`Alene Area will
also see some good wind gusts with the front that will continue
into the morning hours on Saturday. Sustained winds of up around
20-30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph will be possible. These winds
will then gradually decrease through the afternoon on Saturday.
No changes to the current Wind Advisory are expected at this time.
/SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A vigorous cold front will sweep across the region
overnight. The atmosphere will gradually destabilize through this
evening with strong forcing along the front expected to break the
cap holding down convection this afternoon. Best instability will
be located from northeast OR, southeast WA and into the Central
Panhandle Mtns. Confidence is high that thunderstorms will develop
this evening along this axis and impact the KLWS TAF site. KPUW
will also see a chance for thunderstorms this evening, but
confidence is slightly lower. Moderate to heavy showers will then
blossom ahead of the front east of a line from KEPI to KOMK.
These showers may result in brief MVFR cigs/vis into the early
morning hours on Saturday. Gusty westerly winds will also
accompany the front overnight and continue into Saturday
afternoon. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  60  39  59  40  62 /  80  40   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  45  59  38  59  38  63 /  90  70   0  10  10  10
Pullman        46  58  40  58  41  64 /  90  40   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       51  64  41  63  42  68 /  90  20   0   0  10  10
Colville       44  63  39  60  39  63 /  70  60   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      45  56  38  57  36  62 / 100  90   0  10  10  10
Kellogg        42  53  36  56  38  60 / 100 100   0  10  10  10
Moses Lake     48  65  40  65  39  67 /  30  10   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      48  65  43  65  44  68 /  20  10   0  10  10  10
Omak           44  65  39  64  39  66 /  20  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Saturday for Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Saturday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 280410
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
909 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving cold front will arrive tonight bringing widespread
showers, gusty winds, and the potential for thunderstorms to
southeast Washington and portions of the Idaho Panhandle. Saturday
will be quite windy with gusts of 40 mph possible over Palouse,
West Plains, and Upper Columbia Basin. The weather Sunday and
Monday should be mild and relatively dry. Another fast moving
front on Tuesday will bring more showers and wind.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: The cold front is just beginning to push into
western WA late this evening. Mid levels of the atmosphere will
continue to moisten across the forecast area ahead of the cold
front. A shallow pocket of mid level instability will exist
between 650-400 mbs across much of the region, especially across
the southern portions of the region. Even though this instability
is weak and relatively shallow, it is in a favorable location for
generating some charge separation. This will at least result in a
small chance for some isolated lightning strikes across the basin,
into the Okanogan Highlands and over to the ID Panhandle.

The axis of best instability continues to be from the northeast
Blue Mtns of OR up through southeast WA and into the southern to
central ID Panhandle. This is where the best potential for
thunderstorms exist through the rest of this evening. Occasional
cloud to ground lightning strikes, pea sized hail and gusty
outflow winds of up to 40 mph will be possible with any
thunderstorms that develop across this area. Instability becomes
even weaker the further north, so any thunderstorms that do
develop are expected to have as much of an impact.

Cold front passage is still on track for the overnight hours. The
new 00Z NAM model guidance has the cold front pushing east of the
Cascades around 11 PM and then into the ID Panhandle between
9-12Z. Showers will increase in coverage across the area between
this time. Winds will then become gusty with frontal passage. The
GFS continues to be the strongest guidance with the winds, but is
more of an outlier. Most of the other model guidance has the
strongest winds across the Blue Mtns and into the Palouse. The
Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane Area and Coeur d`Alene Area will
also see some good wind gusts with the front that will continue
into the morning hours on Saturday. Sustained winds of up around
20-30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph will be possible. These winds
will then gradually decrease through the afternoon on Saturday.
No changes to the current Wind Advisory are expected at this time.
/SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A vigorous cold front will sweep across the region
overnight. The atmosphere will gradually destabilize through this
evening with strong forcing along the front expected to break the
cap holding down convection this afternoon. Best instability will
be located from northeast OR, southeast WA and into the Central
Panhandle Mtns. Confidence is high that thunderstorms will develop
this evening along this axis and impact the KLWS TAF site. KPUW
will also see a chance for thunderstorms this evening, but
confidence is slightly lower. Moderate to heavy showers will then
blossom ahead of the front east of a line from KEPI to KOMK.
These showers may result in brief MVFR cigs/vis into the early
morning hours on Saturday. Gusty westerly winds will also
accompany the front overnight and continue into Saturday
afternoon. /SVH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  60  39  59  40  62 /  80  40   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  45  59  38  59  38  63 /  90  70   0  10  10  10
Pullman        46  58  40  58  41  64 /  90  40   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       51  64  41  63  42  68 /  90  20   0   0  10  10
Colville       44  63  39  60  39  63 /  70  60   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      45  56  38  57  36  62 / 100  90   0  10  10  10
Kellogg        42  53  36  56  38  60 / 100 100   0  10  10  10
Moses Lake     48  65  40  65  39  67 /  30  10   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      48  65  43  65  44  68 /  20  10   0  10  10  10
Omak           44  65  39  64  39  66 /  20  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Saturday for Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Saturday for Lower Garfield and
     Asotin Counties-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 280353
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
853 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. DRY AND
MILD WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS MORE RAIN AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA
BEGINNING LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW CASCADE PASS LEVELS DURING THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.UPDATE...SO FAR...SO GOOD WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE THUS
FAR TONIGHT. A CONVECTIVE LINE WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
FROM ABOUT MEDFORD TO REDMOND AND SKIRTED JUST EAST OF OUR CWA. THE
COLD FRONT DRIVING THE CONVECTION CROSSED THE COAST AT AROUND 8 PM
AND WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING BRINGING
A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN. BASICALLY UPDATED THE EVENING
POPS TO REMOVE THE HINT AT A RAIN SHADOW WITH ALL WILLAMETTE VALLEY
AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF MEASURABLE RAIN. ALSO
TAPERED OFF POPS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SHOWERS PROBABLY BECOMING
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE RATHER THAN NUMEROUS. UPDATES WILL BE
AVAILABLE SHORTLY. /JBONK

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 437 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR 130W
WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THE FIRST RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE ON THE
COAST BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM AND BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM ACROSS THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND PROBABLY CLOSER TO 9 TO 10 PM FOR HOOD
RIVER. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST OF 130W WILL
SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND CONTINUING WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASINGLY
LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE COAST...COAST RANGE AND CASCADES LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND FOR
MOST OF THE REGION BRING RELATIVELY DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
AIMED AT SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA RIVER AND NORTHWEST WASHINGTON
WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH THAT OUR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL
SEE INCREASE CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO THEIR COUNTERPARTS FARTHER
SOUTH. IN ADDITION...BOTH THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST OUR FAR NORTHWEST
ZONES MAY GET CLIPPED BY A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO DURING THIS
PERIOD. /NEUMAN


LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A RATHER ACTIVE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
LOOKS TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE
A BREAK IN THE ACTION TOWARDS NEXT THURSDAY SO POPS WERE TRENDED
DOWN DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT OTHERWISE POPS WERE NUDGED UPWARDS
INTO THE HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO HOVER BETWEEN 3K AND 4KFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. AB/NEUMAN

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT MOVING INLAND FROM THE COAST AND SHOULD
BE CROSSING THE INLAND TAF SITES AROUND 06Z-08Z. AT THE
COAST...CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE IMPROVED FROM IFR TO LIFR
TO A MIX OF VFR TO IFR. EXPECT THE CURRENT IFR CONDITIONS IN THE
NEWPORT AREA TO LIFT TO LOW MVFR AROUND 08Z SAT. INLAND TAF SITES
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS OF 2500 TO 3000
FT THOUGH ABOUT 10Z SAT. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS SAT
AFTERNOON...WITH VFR AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE COAST IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY 08Z. UNTIL THEN EXPECT SOME MVFR CIGS
AROUND 2500 FEET AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT MOVED ASHORE THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS 20 TO 30 KT CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ALSO
THERE IS OCCASIONAL 10 FT SEAS THAT LOOK TO AFFECT THE WATERS
NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS WELL. CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO QUIET DOWN SAT MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK
OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGHER PRES OVER THE WATERS
AND LOW PRES OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...THE SW GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW
WILL ALSO BRING SOME INCREASING WESTERLY SWELL ON SUN...WITH SEAS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE BY SUN AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATER MON AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONT SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS. A MORE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. PYLE /MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 2 AM PDT SATURDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM PDT
     SATURDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 280353
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
853 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. DRY AND
MILD WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS MORE RAIN AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA
BEGINNING LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW CASCADE PASS LEVELS DURING THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.UPDATE...SO FAR...SO GOOD WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE THUS
FAR TONIGHT. A CONVECTIVE LINE WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
FROM ABOUT MEDFORD TO REDMOND AND SKIRTED JUST EAST OF OUR CWA. THE
COLD FRONT DRIVING THE CONVECTION CROSSED THE COAST AT AROUND 8 PM
AND WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING BRINGING
A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN. BASICALLY UPDATED THE EVENING
POPS TO REMOVE THE HINT AT A RAIN SHADOW WITH ALL WILLAMETTE VALLEY
AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF MEASURABLE RAIN. ALSO
TAPERED OFF POPS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SHOWERS PROBABLY BECOMING
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE RATHER THAN NUMEROUS. UPDATES WILL BE
AVAILABLE SHORTLY. /JBONK

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 437 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR 130W
WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THE FIRST RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE ON THE
COAST BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM AND BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM ACROSS THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND PROBABLY CLOSER TO 9 TO 10 PM FOR HOOD
RIVER. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST OF 130W WILL
SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND CONTINUING WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASINGLY
LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE COAST...COAST RANGE AND CASCADES LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND FOR
MOST OF THE REGION BRING RELATIVELY DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
AIMED AT SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA RIVER AND NORTHWEST WASHINGTON
WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH THAT OUR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL
SEE INCREASE CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO THEIR COUNTERPARTS FARTHER
SOUTH. IN ADDITION...BOTH THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST OUR FAR NORTHWEST
ZONES MAY GET CLIPPED BY A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO DURING THIS
PERIOD. /NEUMAN


LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A RATHER ACTIVE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
LOOKS TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE
A BREAK IN THE ACTION TOWARDS NEXT THURSDAY SO POPS WERE TRENDED
DOWN DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT OTHERWISE POPS WERE NUDGED UPWARDS
INTO THE HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO HOVER BETWEEN 3K AND 4KFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. AB/NEUMAN

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT MOVING INLAND FROM THE COAST AND SHOULD
BE CROSSING THE INLAND TAF SITES AROUND 06Z-08Z. AT THE
COAST...CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE IMPROVED FROM IFR TO LIFR
TO A MIX OF VFR TO IFR. EXPECT THE CURRENT IFR CONDITIONS IN THE
NEWPORT AREA TO LIFT TO LOW MVFR AROUND 08Z SAT. INLAND TAF SITES
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS OF 2500 TO 3000
FT THOUGH ABOUT 10Z SAT. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS SAT
AFTERNOON...WITH VFR AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE COAST IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY 08Z. UNTIL THEN EXPECT SOME MVFR CIGS
AROUND 2500 FEET AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT MOVED ASHORE THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS 20 TO 30 KT CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ALSO
THERE IS OCCASIONAL 10 FT SEAS THAT LOOK TO AFFECT THE WATERS
NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS WELL. CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO QUIET DOWN SAT MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK
OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGHER PRES OVER THE WATERS
AND LOW PRES OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...THE SW GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW
WILL ALSO BRING SOME INCREASING WESTERLY SWELL ON SUN...WITH SEAS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE BY SUN AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATER MON AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONT SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS. A MORE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. PYLE /MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 2 AM PDT SATURDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM PDT
     SATURDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 280353
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
853 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. DRY AND
MILD WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS MORE RAIN AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA
BEGINNING LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW CASCADE PASS LEVELS DURING THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.UPDATE...SO FAR...SO GOOD WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE THUS
FAR TONIGHT. A CONVECTIVE LINE WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
FROM ABOUT MEDFORD TO REDMOND AND SKIRTED JUST EAST OF OUR CWA. THE
COLD FRONT DRIVING THE CONVECTION CROSSED THE COAST AT AROUND 8 PM
AND WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING BRINGING
A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN. BASICALLY UPDATED THE EVENING
POPS TO REMOVE THE HINT AT A RAIN SHADOW WITH ALL WILLAMETTE VALLEY
AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF MEASURABLE RAIN. ALSO
TAPERED OFF POPS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SHOWERS PROBABLY BECOMING
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE RATHER THAN NUMEROUS. UPDATES WILL BE
AVAILABLE SHORTLY. /JBONK

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 437 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR 130W
WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THE FIRST RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE ON THE
COAST BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM AND BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM ACROSS THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND PROBABLY CLOSER TO 9 TO 10 PM FOR HOOD
RIVER. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST OF 130W WILL
SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND CONTINUING WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASINGLY
LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE COAST...COAST RANGE AND CASCADES LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND FOR
MOST OF THE REGION BRING RELATIVELY DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
AIMED AT SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA RIVER AND NORTHWEST WASHINGTON
WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH THAT OUR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL
SEE INCREASE CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO THEIR COUNTERPARTS FARTHER
SOUTH. IN ADDITION...BOTH THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST OUR FAR NORTHWEST
ZONES MAY GET CLIPPED BY A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO DURING THIS
PERIOD. /NEUMAN


LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A RATHER ACTIVE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
LOOKS TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE
A BREAK IN THE ACTION TOWARDS NEXT THURSDAY SO POPS WERE TRENDED
DOWN DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT OTHERWISE POPS WERE NUDGED UPWARDS
INTO THE HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO HOVER BETWEEN 3K AND 4KFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. AB/NEUMAN

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT MOVING INLAND FROM THE COAST AND SHOULD
BE CROSSING THE INLAND TAF SITES AROUND 06Z-08Z. AT THE
COAST...CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE IMPROVED FROM IFR TO LIFR
TO A MIX OF VFR TO IFR. EXPECT THE CURRENT IFR CONDITIONS IN THE
NEWPORT AREA TO LIFT TO LOW MVFR AROUND 08Z SAT. INLAND TAF SITES
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS OF 2500 TO 3000
FT THOUGH ABOUT 10Z SAT. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS SAT
AFTERNOON...WITH VFR AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE COAST IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY 08Z. UNTIL THEN EXPECT SOME MVFR CIGS
AROUND 2500 FEET AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT MOVED ASHORE THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS 20 TO 30 KT CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ALSO
THERE IS OCCASIONAL 10 FT SEAS THAT LOOK TO AFFECT THE WATERS
NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS WELL. CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO QUIET DOWN SAT MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK
OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGHER PRES OVER THE WATERS
AND LOW PRES OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...THE SW GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW
WILL ALSO BRING SOME INCREASING WESTERLY SWELL ON SUN...WITH SEAS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE BY SUN AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATER MON AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONT SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS. A MORE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. PYLE /MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 2 AM PDT SATURDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM PDT
     SATURDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 280325
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
830 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...THEN CHANGE TO SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND A FRONT. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER
SYSTEMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
REACH WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE MONDAY WITH RAIN. A COOL SHOWERY UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY. SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR SHOWS A FRONTAL BAND OF RAIN OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA ORIENTED ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH AXIS. THIS RAIN WILL REACH
THE SEATTLE AREA 04Z-06Z. EVERYWHERE WILL GET SOME RAIN THIS
EVENING. THE BAND IS NARROW AND PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO SHOWERS
BY MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL TO 4000 FEET OR SO AND THERE
COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF NEW SNOW TONIGHT ABOVE THAT LEVEL.

SHOWERS TAPER SATURDAY AND SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE. ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BRING GALES TO THE STRAIT AND A NICE PSCZ SEEMS
LIKELY TO FORM LATE TONIGHT OVER SNOHOMISH AND KING COUNTIES. THIS
WILL DISSIPATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING TAKES HOLD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 55-60 RANGE.

THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE INTERIOR AND
ON THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 55-60 ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A
SKOSH OF WARMING ON MONDAY. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW SPLIT
FLOW AND SERIES OF MOSTLY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE REGION
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TUESDAY LOOKS WET AND FRIDAY
LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF STAYING DRY. BUT TIMING IS NOT
LIKELY TO BE VERY RELIABLE GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN.
MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES LATE TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WITH THE FRONT AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES MOIST...
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES
WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. THE AIR MASS WILL DRY
SOMEWHAT AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

CEILINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN WASHINGTON SHOULD LOWER INTO THE 025-035
RANGE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH AREAS OF RAIN...WHILE IFR TO
LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL
CHANGE LITTLE AS ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS FOLLOW THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT.

A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL FORM LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY
MORNING...AND THAT FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF SEATTLE. ELSEWHERE
SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE AND CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON
SATURDAY.

KSEA...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND 8-14 KT. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH
SEATTLE LATE THIS EVENING...SO RAIN WILL DEVELOP AND THEN SWITCH TO
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL FORM BUT IT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF SEATTLE. MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES LATER TONIGHT...WITH MODERATELY
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW FOLLOWING THE FRONT. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
GALE FORCE WESTERLIES WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT
OF JUAN DE FUCA OVERNIGHT...AND WE WILL ISSUE A GALE WARNING THAT
WILL MATCH THE ONE IN EFFECT FROM PSPC VANCOUVER. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE ALL OTHER WATERS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH WINDS
EASING DURING THE DAY. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLIES TO THE COASTAL WATERS AGAIN LATER
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.   MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL OTHER WATERS.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML






000
FXUS66 KSEW 280325
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
830 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...THEN CHANGE TO SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND A FRONT. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER
SYSTEMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
REACH WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE MONDAY WITH RAIN. A COOL SHOWERY UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY. SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR SHOWS A FRONTAL BAND OF RAIN OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA ORIENTED ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH AXIS. THIS RAIN WILL REACH
THE SEATTLE AREA 04Z-06Z. EVERYWHERE WILL GET SOME RAIN THIS
EVENING. THE BAND IS NARROW AND PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO SHOWERS
BY MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL TO 4000 FEET OR SO AND THERE
COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF NEW SNOW TONIGHT ABOVE THAT LEVEL.

SHOWERS TAPER SATURDAY AND SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE. ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BRING GALES TO THE STRAIT AND A NICE PSCZ SEEMS
LIKELY TO FORM LATE TONIGHT OVER SNOHOMISH AND KING COUNTIES. THIS
WILL DISSIPATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING TAKES HOLD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 55-60 RANGE.

THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE INTERIOR AND
ON THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 55-60 ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A
SKOSH OF WARMING ON MONDAY. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW SPLIT
FLOW AND SERIES OF MOSTLY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE REGION
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TUESDAY LOOKS WET AND FRIDAY
LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF STAYING DRY. BUT TIMING IS NOT
LIKELY TO BE VERY RELIABLE GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN.
MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES LATE TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WITH THE FRONT AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES MOIST...
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES
WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. THE AIR MASS WILL DRY
SOMEWHAT AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

CEILINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN WASHINGTON SHOULD LOWER INTO THE 025-035
RANGE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH AREAS OF RAIN...WHILE IFR TO
LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL
CHANGE LITTLE AS ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS FOLLOW THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT.

A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL FORM LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY
MORNING...AND THAT FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF SEATTLE. ELSEWHERE
SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE AND CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON
SATURDAY.

KSEA...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND 8-14 KT. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH
SEATTLE LATE THIS EVENING...SO RAIN WILL DEVELOP AND THEN SWITCH TO
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL FORM BUT IT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF SEATTLE. MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES LATER TONIGHT...WITH MODERATELY
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW FOLLOWING THE FRONT. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
GALE FORCE WESTERLIES WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT
OF JUAN DE FUCA OVERNIGHT...AND WE WILL ISSUE A GALE WARNING THAT
WILL MATCH THE ONE IN EFFECT FROM PSPC VANCOUVER. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE ALL OTHER WATERS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH WINDS
EASING DURING THE DAY. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLIES TO THE COASTAL WATERS AGAIN LATER
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.   MCDONNAL

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL OTHER WATERS.

&&

$$

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML





000
FXUS66 KOTX 280021
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
521 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving cold front will arrive tonight bringing widespread
showers, gusty winds, and the potential for thunderstorms to
southeast Washington and portions of the Idaho Panhandle. Saturday
will be quite windy with gusts of 40 mph possible over Palouse,
West Plains, and Upper Columbia Basin. The weather Sunday and
Monday should be mild and relatively dry. Another fast moving
front on Tuesday will bring more showers and wind.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sat...

Thunder and showers: We backed off the pcpn and thunder potential
through late afternoon to early evening as it looks like much of
the surface will remain capped. Showers and thunder will then
rapidly develop and spread NE across much of Ern and N Idaho as
the cold front and upper trough (currently just offshore) moves
inland. Convective mode: Shear and thermodynamic profiles show the
main threat will be very gusty winds, with any thunderstorm
outflow augmenting the already strong synoptic-scale pressure
gradient dry slot winds overnight. Severe gusts (gust to 58 mph)
is a possibility, but not likely with the strongest embedded
thunderstorms. Steering flow for these cells alone should be at
least 30-35 kts with this embedded thunder. Small hail is
possible. The challenge tonight will be how much thunder is
generated across Nrn Wa late tonight as the vort max (and
associated cold pool and steep mid-level lapse rates) translate
east rather quickly. If this was occurring during peak heating,
thunder would be a certainty.

Winds: We`ll issue a wind advisory with the passage of the cold
front this evening through midday Sat for especially the Palouse
area as a significant mid-level dry slot surges across Ern Wa.
Initially the heavy showers and thunder will help to mix stronger
winds aloft (35-40 kts) to the sfc, then strengthening pressure
gradients and cold advection overnight following fropa will help
to transfer 45-50kt winds aloft in a nearly unidirectional
westerly vertical wind profile.bz

Saturday night through Friday...A gulf of Alaska area of low
pressure juxtaposed against a weak ridge of high pressure with
axis placement generally to the east of Northern Idaho allows for
a persistent flux of moisture through an elongated baroclinic band
located between the low and the ridge. The placement of the
baroclinic band is far enough to the north through Monday so as to
allow for a dry forecast for most locations with the exception of
locations close to the British Columbia Border and the North
Cascade Crest. Another cold front wipes out the ridge Monday night
into Tuesday. As it does this is will spread precipitation from
west to east and allow for Windy Conditions during and after its
passage Tuesday. From about Tuesday night on Through Thursday the
jet stream straddles the forecast area along the southern Border
which allows for a conditionally unstable airmass and associated
cold pool aloft to overhang Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho
through most if not all of this interval which allows for a cool
forecast with mainly diurnally driven showers and the possibility
of some frost with more widespread temperatures just below
freezing Wednesday night. By Friday the trof aloft exits to the
east and leaves a more flat zonal flow with the jet stream in
closer proximity which would suggest a further decrease in pops
but perhaps a return of breezy conditions as the jet stream gets
positioned closer overhead of Eastern Washington and Northern
Idaho. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A vigorous cold front will sweep across the region
overnight. The atmosphere will gradually destabilize through this
evening with strong forcing along the front expected to break the
cap holding down convection this afternoon. Best instability will
be located from northeast OR, southeast WA and into the Central
Panhandle Mtns. Confidence is high that thunderstorms will develop
this evening along this axis and impact the KLWS TAF site. KPUW
will also see a chance for thunderstorms this evening, but
confidence is slightly lower. Moderate to heavy showers will then
blossom ahead of the front east of a line from KEPI to KOMK.
These showers may result in brief MVFR cigs/vis into the early
morning hours on Saturday. Gusty westerly winds will also
accompany the front overnight and continue into Saturday
afternoon. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  60  39  59  40  62 /  80  40   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  45  59  38  59  38  63 /  90  70   0  10  10  10
Pullman        46  58  40  58  41  64 /  90  40   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       51  64  41  63  42  68 /  90  20   0   0  10  10
Colville       44  63  39  60  39  63 /  70  60   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      45  56  38  57  36  62 / 100  90   0  10  10  10
Kellogg        42  53  36  56  38  60 / 100 100   0  10  10  10
Moses Lake     48  65  40  65  39  67 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      48  65  43  65  44  68 /  10  10   0  10  10  10
Omak           44  65  39  64  39  66 /  40  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Saturday for
     Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Saturday for
     Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 280021
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
521 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving cold front will arrive tonight bringing widespread
showers, gusty winds, and the potential for thunderstorms to
southeast Washington and portions of the Idaho Panhandle. Saturday
will be quite windy with gusts of 40 mph possible over Palouse,
West Plains, and Upper Columbia Basin. The weather Sunday and
Monday should be mild and relatively dry. Another fast moving
front on Tuesday will bring more showers and wind.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sat...

Thunder and showers: We backed off the pcpn and thunder potential
through late afternoon to early evening as it looks like much of
the surface will remain capped. Showers and thunder will then
rapidly develop and spread NE across much of Ern and N Idaho as
the cold front and upper trough (currently just offshore) moves
inland. Convective mode: Shear and thermodynamic profiles show the
main threat will be very gusty winds, with any thunderstorm
outflow augmenting the already strong synoptic-scale pressure
gradient dry slot winds overnight. Severe gusts (gust to 58 mph)
is a possibility, but not likely with the strongest embedded
thunderstorms. Steering flow for these cells alone should be at
least 30-35 kts with this embedded thunder. Small hail is
possible. The challenge tonight will be how much thunder is
generated across Nrn Wa late tonight as the vort max (and
associated cold pool and steep mid-level lapse rates) translate
east rather quickly. If this was occurring during peak heating,
thunder would be a certainty.

Winds: We`ll issue a wind advisory with the passage of the cold
front this evening through midday Sat for especially the Palouse
area as a significant mid-level dry slot surges across Ern Wa.
Initially the heavy showers and thunder will help to mix stronger
winds aloft (35-40 kts) to the sfc, then strengthening pressure
gradients and cold advection overnight following fropa will help
to transfer 45-50kt winds aloft in a nearly unidirectional
westerly vertical wind profile.bz

Saturday night through Friday...A gulf of Alaska area of low
pressure juxtaposed against a weak ridge of high pressure with
axis placement generally to the east of Northern Idaho allows for
a persistent flux of moisture through an elongated baroclinic band
located between the low and the ridge. The placement of the
baroclinic band is far enough to the north through Monday so as to
allow for a dry forecast for most locations with the exception of
locations close to the British Columbia Border and the North
Cascade Crest. Another cold front wipes out the ridge Monday night
into Tuesday. As it does this is will spread precipitation from
west to east and allow for Windy Conditions during and after its
passage Tuesday. From about Tuesday night on Through Thursday the
jet stream straddles the forecast area along the southern Border
which allows for a conditionally unstable airmass and associated
cold pool aloft to overhang Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho
through most if not all of this interval which allows for a cool
forecast with mainly diurnally driven showers and the possibility
of some frost with more widespread temperatures just below
freezing Wednesday night. By Friday the trof aloft exits to the
east and leaves a more flat zonal flow with the jet stream in
closer proximity which would suggest a further decrease in pops
but perhaps a return of breezy conditions as the jet stream gets
positioned closer overhead of Eastern Washington and Northern
Idaho. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A vigorous cold front will sweep across the region
overnight. The atmosphere will gradually destabilize through this
evening with strong forcing along the front expected to break the
cap holding down convection this afternoon. Best instability will
be located from northeast OR, southeast WA and into the Central
Panhandle Mtns. Confidence is high that thunderstorms will develop
this evening along this axis and impact the KLWS TAF site. KPUW
will also see a chance for thunderstorms this evening, but
confidence is slightly lower. Moderate to heavy showers will then
blossom ahead of the front east of a line from KEPI to KOMK.
These showers may result in brief MVFR cigs/vis into the early
morning hours on Saturday. Gusty westerly winds will also
accompany the front overnight and continue into Saturday
afternoon. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  60  39  59  40  62 /  80  40   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  45  59  38  59  38  63 /  90  70   0  10  10  10
Pullman        46  58  40  58  41  64 /  90  40   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       51  64  41  63  42  68 /  90  20   0   0  10  10
Colville       44  63  39  60  39  63 /  70  60   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      45  56  38  57  36  62 / 100  90   0  10  10  10
Kellogg        42  53  36  56  38  60 / 100 100   0  10  10  10
Moses Lake     48  65  40  65  39  67 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      48  65  43  65  44  68 /  10  10   0  10  10  10
Omak           44  65  39  64  39  66 /  40  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Saturday for
     Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Saturday for
     Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KPQR 272337 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
437 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPDATED SYNOPSIS

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY SATURDAY. DRY AND MILD
WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT BRINGS MORE RAIN AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA BEGINNING LATE
MONDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY DROP BELOW CASCADE PASS LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR 130W
WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS
EVENING. IT APPEARS THE FIRST RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE ON THE COAST
BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM AND BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY...AND PROBABLY CLOSER TO 9 TO 10 PM FOR HOOD RIVER. POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST OF 130W WILL SPREAD INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
CONTINUING WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASINGLY LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
THE COAST...COAST RANGE AND CASCADES LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND FOR
MOST OF THE REGION BRING RELATIVELY DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
AIMED AT SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA RIVER AND NORTHWEST WASHINGTON
WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH THAT OUR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL
SEE INCREASE CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO THEIR COUNTERPARTS FARTHER
SOUTH. IN ADDITION...BOTH THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST OUR FAR NORTHWEST
ZONES MAY GET CLIPPED BY A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO DURING THIS
PERIOD. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A RATHER ACTIVE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN LOOKS
TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE A BREAK
IN THE ACTION TOWARDS NEXT THURSDAY SO POPS WERE TRENDED DOWN DURING
THIS PERIOD...BUT OTHERWISE POPS WERE NUDGED UPWARDS INTO THE HIGH
END CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SNOW
LEVELS LOOK TO HOVER BETWEEN 3K AND 4KFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AB/NEUMAN

&&

.AVIATION...MARINE STRATUS PUSHED UP THE COAST AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS
HAS MOSTLY BURNED OFF OVER THE VALLEY...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AT THE COAST. A COLD FRONT
JUST OFFSHORE WILL SPREAD RAIN ONTO THE COAST AFTER 00Z...THEN
SPREAD INLAND THIS EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE
VALLEY BY 06Z TO 09Z. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE
FRONT. RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO
SAT MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS DURING HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY. EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SAT AFTERNOON...WITH VFR AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN AND LIKELY MVFR CIGS
FOR A PERIOD BETWEEN 02Z AND 07Z. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY VFR BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR DURING
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS NEARING THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH BUOY 29 NOW SEEING GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE FURTHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE ONSHORE BY AROUND 6 PM AND WINDS WILL TURN MORE
WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE POST FRONTAL
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SEAS
WILL ALSO INCREASE A BIT WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...REACHING NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE 10 FT AT TIMES...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS WHERE
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO QUIET DOWN SAT MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRES
BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGHER PRES OVER
THE WATERS AND LOW PRES OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...THE SW GRADIENT
MAY TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THE GULF OF
ALASKA LOW WILL ALSO BRING SOME INCREASING WESTERLY SWELL ON
SUN...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE BY
SUN AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON MON. THIS FRONT SHOULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
    TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 PM
    THIS EVENING TO 2 AM PDT SATURDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 AM TO
    1 PM PDT SATURDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 272337 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
437 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPDATED SYNOPSIS

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY SATURDAY. DRY AND MILD
WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT BRINGS MORE RAIN AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA BEGINNING LATE
MONDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY DROP BELOW CASCADE PASS LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR 130W
WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS
EVENING. IT APPEARS THE FIRST RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE ON THE COAST
BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM AND BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY...AND PROBABLY CLOSER TO 9 TO 10 PM FOR HOOD RIVER. POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST OF 130W WILL SPREAD INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
CONTINUING WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASINGLY LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
THE COAST...COAST RANGE AND CASCADES LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND FOR
MOST OF THE REGION BRING RELATIVELY DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
AIMED AT SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA RIVER AND NORTHWEST WASHINGTON
WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH THAT OUR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL
SEE INCREASE CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO THEIR COUNTERPARTS FARTHER
SOUTH. IN ADDITION...BOTH THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST OUR FAR NORTHWEST
ZONES MAY GET CLIPPED BY A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO DURING THIS
PERIOD. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A RATHER ACTIVE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN LOOKS
TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE A BREAK
IN THE ACTION TOWARDS NEXT THURSDAY SO POPS WERE TRENDED DOWN DURING
THIS PERIOD...BUT OTHERWISE POPS WERE NUDGED UPWARDS INTO THE HIGH
END CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SNOW
LEVELS LOOK TO HOVER BETWEEN 3K AND 4KFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AB/NEUMAN

&&

.AVIATION...MARINE STRATUS PUSHED UP THE COAST AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS
HAS MOSTLY BURNED OFF OVER THE VALLEY...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AT THE COAST. A COLD FRONT
JUST OFFSHORE WILL SPREAD RAIN ONTO THE COAST AFTER 00Z...THEN
SPREAD INLAND THIS EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE
VALLEY BY 06Z TO 09Z. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE
FRONT. RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO
SAT MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS DURING HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY. EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SAT AFTERNOON...WITH VFR AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN AND LIKELY MVFR CIGS
FOR A PERIOD BETWEEN 02Z AND 07Z. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY VFR BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR DURING
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS NEARING THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH BUOY 29 NOW SEEING GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE FURTHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE ONSHORE BY AROUND 6 PM AND WINDS WILL TURN MORE
WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE POST FRONTAL
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SEAS
WILL ALSO INCREASE A BIT WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...REACHING NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE 10 FT AT TIMES...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS WHERE
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO QUIET DOWN SAT MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRES
BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGHER PRES OVER
THE WATERS AND LOW PRES OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...THE SW GRADIENT
MAY TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THE GULF OF
ALASKA LOW WILL ALSO BRING SOME INCREASING WESTERLY SWELL ON
SUN...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE BY
SUN AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON MON. THIS FRONT SHOULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
    TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 PM
    THIS EVENING TO 2 AM PDT SATURDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 AM TO
    1 PM PDT SATURDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 272337 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
437 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPDATED SYNOPSIS

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY SATURDAY. DRY AND MILD
WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT BRINGS MORE RAIN AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA BEGINNING LATE
MONDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY DROP BELOW CASCADE PASS LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR 130W
WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS
EVENING. IT APPEARS THE FIRST RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE ON THE COAST
BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM AND BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY...AND PROBABLY CLOSER TO 9 TO 10 PM FOR HOOD RIVER. POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST OF 130W WILL SPREAD INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
CONTINUING WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASINGLY LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
THE COAST...COAST RANGE AND CASCADES LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND FOR
MOST OF THE REGION BRING RELATIVELY DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
AIMED AT SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA RIVER AND NORTHWEST WASHINGTON
WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH THAT OUR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL
SEE INCREASE CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO THEIR COUNTERPARTS FARTHER
SOUTH. IN ADDITION...BOTH THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST OUR FAR NORTHWEST
ZONES MAY GET CLIPPED BY A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO DURING THIS
PERIOD. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A RATHER ACTIVE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN LOOKS
TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE A BREAK
IN THE ACTION TOWARDS NEXT THURSDAY SO POPS WERE TRENDED DOWN DURING
THIS PERIOD...BUT OTHERWISE POPS WERE NUDGED UPWARDS INTO THE HIGH
END CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SNOW
LEVELS LOOK TO HOVER BETWEEN 3K AND 4KFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AB/NEUMAN

&&

.AVIATION...MARINE STRATUS PUSHED UP THE COAST AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS
HAS MOSTLY BURNED OFF OVER THE VALLEY...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AT THE COAST. A COLD FRONT
JUST OFFSHORE WILL SPREAD RAIN ONTO THE COAST AFTER 00Z...THEN
SPREAD INLAND THIS EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE
VALLEY BY 06Z TO 09Z. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE
FRONT. RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO
SAT MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS DURING HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY. EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SAT AFTERNOON...WITH VFR AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN AND LIKELY MVFR CIGS
FOR A PERIOD BETWEEN 02Z AND 07Z. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY VFR BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR DURING
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS NEARING THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH BUOY 29 NOW SEEING GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE FURTHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE ONSHORE BY AROUND 6 PM AND WINDS WILL TURN MORE
WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE POST FRONTAL
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SEAS
WILL ALSO INCREASE A BIT WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...REACHING NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE 10 FT AT TIMES...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS WHERE
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO QUIET DOWN SAT MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRES
BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGHER PRES OVER
THE WATERS AND LOW PRES OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...THE SW GRADIENT
MAY TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THE GULF OF
ALASKA LOW WILL ALSO BRING SOME INCREASING WESTERLY SWELL ON
SUN...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE BY
SUN AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON MON. THIS FRONT SHOULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
    TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 PM
    THIS EVENING TO 2 AM PDT SATURDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 AM TO
    1 PM PDT SATURDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 272337 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
437 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPDATED SYNOPSIS

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY SATURDAY. DRY AND MILD
WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT BRINGS MORE RAIN AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA BEGINNING LATE
MONDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY DROP BELOW CASCADE PASS LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR 130W
WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS
EVENING. IT APPEARS THE FIRST RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE ON THE COAST
BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM AND BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY...AND PROBABLY CLOSER TO 9 TO 10 PM FOR HOOD RIVER. POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST OF 130W WILL SPREAD INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
CONTINUING WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASINGLY LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
THE COAST...COAST RANGE AND CASCADES LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND FOR
MOST OF THE REGION BRING RELATIVELY DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
AIMED AT SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA RIVER AND NORTHWEST WASHINGTON
WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH THAT OUR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL
SEE INCREASE CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO THEIR COUNTERPARTS FARTHER
SOUTH. IN ADDITION...BOTH THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST OUR FAR NORTHWEST
ZONES MAY GET CLIPPED BY A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO DURING THIS
PERIOD. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A RATHER ACTIVE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN LOOKS
TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE A BREAK
IN THE ACTION TOWARDS NEXT THURSDAY SO POPS WERE TRENDED DOWN DURING
THIS PERIOD...BUT OTHERWISE POPS WERE NUDGED UPWARDS INTO THE HIGH
END CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SNOW
LEVELS LOOK TO HOVER BETWEEN 3K AND 4KFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AB/NEUMAN

&&

.AVIATION...MARINE STRATUS PUSHED UP THE COAST AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS
HAS MOSTLY BURNED OFF OVER THE VALLEY...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AT THE COAST. A COLD FRONT
JUST OFFSHORE WILL SPREAD RAIN ONTO THE COAST AFTER 00Z...THEN
SPREAD INLAND THIS EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE
VALLEY BY 06Z TO 09Z. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE
FRONT. RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO
SAT MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS DURING HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY. EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SAT AFTERNOON...WITH VFR AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN AND LIKELY MVFR CIGS
FOR A PERIOD BETWEEN 02Z AND 07Z. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY VFR BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR DURING
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS NEARING THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH BUOY 29 NOW SEEING GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE FURTHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE ONSHORE BY AROUND 6 PM AND WINDS WILL TURN MORE
WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE POST FRONTAL
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SEAS
WILL ALSO INCREASE A BIT WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...REACHING NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE 10 FT AT TIMES...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS WHERE
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO QUIET DOWN SAT MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRES
BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGHER PRES OVER
THE WATERS AND LOW PRES OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...THE SW GRADIENT
MAY TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THE GULF OF
ALASKA LOW WILL ALSO BRING SOME INCREASING WESTERLY SWELL ON
SUN...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE BY
SUN AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON MON. THIS FRONT SHOULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
    TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 PM
    THIS EVENING TO 2 AM PDT SATURDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 AM TO
    1 PM PDT SATURDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 272337 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
437 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPDATED SYNOPSIS

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY SATURDAY. DRY AND MILD
WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT BRINGS MORE RAIN AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA BEGINNING LATE
MONDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY DROP BELOW CASCADE PASS LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR 130W
WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS
EVENING. IT APPEARS THE FIRST RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE ON THE COAST
BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM AND BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY...AND PROBABLY CLOSER TO 9 TO 10 PM FOR HOOD RIVER. POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST OF 130W WILL SPREAD INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
CONTINUING WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASINGLY LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
THE COAST...COAST RANGE AND CASCADES LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND FOR
MOST OF THE REGION BRING RELATIVELY DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
AIMED AT SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA RIVER AND NORTHWEST WASHINGTON
WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH THAT OUR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL
SEE INCREASE CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO THEIR COUNTERPARTS FARTHER
SOUTH. IN ADDITION...BOTH THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST OUR FAR NORTHWEST
ZONES MAY GET CLIPPED BY A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO DURING THIS
PERIOD. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A RATHER ACTIVE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN LOOKS
TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE A BREAK
IN THE ACTION TOWARDS NEXT THURSDAY SO POPS WERE TRENDED DOWN DURING
THIS PERIOD...BUT OTHERWISE POPS WERE NUDGED UPWARDS INTO THE HIGH
END CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SNOW
LEVELS LOOK TO HOVER BETWEEN 3K AND 4KFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AB/NEUMAN

&&

.AVIATION...MARINE STRATUS PUSHED UP THE COAST AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS
HAS MOSTLY BURNED OFF OVER THE VALLEY...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AT THE COAST. A COLD FRONT
JUST OFFSHORE WILL SPREAD RAIN ONTO THE COAST AFTER 00Z...THEN
SPREAD INLAND THIS EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE
VALLEY BY 06Z TO 09Z. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE
FRONT. RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO
SAT MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS DURING HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY. EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SAT AFTERNOON...WITH VFR AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN AND LIKELY MVFR CIGS
FOR A PERIOD BETWEEN 02Z AND 07Z. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY VFR BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR DURING
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS NEARING THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH BUOY 29 NOW SEEING GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE FURTHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE ONSHORE BY AROUND 6 PM AND WINDS WILL TURN MORE
WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE POST FRONTAL
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SEAS
WILL ALSO INCREASE A BIT WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...REACHING NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE 10 FT AT TIMES...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS WHERE
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO QUIET DOWN SAT MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRES
BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGHER PRES OVER
THE WATERS AND LOW PRES OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...THE SW GRADIENT
MAY TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THE GULF OF
ALASKA LOW WILL ALSO BRING SOME INCREASING WESTERLY SWELL ON
SUN...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE BY
SUN AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON MON. THIS FRONT SHOULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
    TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 PM
    THIS EVENING TO 2 AM PDT SATURDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 AM TO
    1 PM PDT SATURDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 272337 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
437 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPDATED SYNOPSIS

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY SATURDAY. DRY AND MILD
WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT BRINGS MORE RAIN AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA BEGINNING LATE
MONDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY DROP BELOW CASCADE PASS LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR 130W
WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS
EVENING. IT APPEARS THE FIRST RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE ON THE COAST
BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM AND BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY...AND PROBABLY CLOSER TO 9 TO 10 PM FOR HOOD RIVER. POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST OF 130W WILL SPREAD INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
CONTINUING WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASINGLY LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
THE COAST...COAST RANGE AND CASCADES LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND FOR
MOST OF THE REGION BRING RELATIVELY DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
AIMED AT SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA RIVER AND NORTHWEST WASHINGTON
WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH THAT OUR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL
SEE INCREASE CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO THEIR COUNTERPARTS FARTHER
SOUTH. IN ADDITION...BOTH THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST OUR FAR NORTHWEST
ZONES MAY GET CLIPPED BY A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO DURING THIS
PERIOD. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A RATHER ACTIVE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN LOOKS
TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE A BREAK
IN THE ACTION TOWARDS NEXT THURSDAY SO POPS WERE TRENDED DOWN DURING
THIS PERIOD...BUT OTHERWISE POPS WERE NUDGED UPWARDS INTO THE HIGH
END CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SNOW
LEVELS LOOK TO HOVER BETWEEN 3K AND 4KFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AB/NEUMAN

&&

.AVIATION...MARINE STRATUS PUSHED UP THE COAST AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS
HAS MOSTLY BURNED OFF OVER THE VALLEY...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AT THE COAST. A COLD FRONT
JUST OFFSHORE WILL SPREAD RAIN ONTO THE COAST AFTER 00Z...THEN
SPREAD INLAND THIS EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE
VALLEY BY 06Z TO 09Z. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE
FRONT. RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO
SAT MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS DURING HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY. EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SAT AFTERNOON...WITH VFR AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN AND LIKELY MVFR CIGS
FOR A PERIOD BETWEEN 02Z AND 07Z. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY VFR BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR DURING
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS NEARING THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH BUOY 29 NOW SEEING GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE FURTHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE ONSHORE BY AROUND 6 PM AND WINDS WILL TURN MORE
WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE POST FRONTAL
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SEAS
WILL ALSO INCREASE A BIT WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...REACHING NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE 10 FT AT TIMES...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS WHERE
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO QUIET DOWN SAT MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRES
BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGHER PRES OVER
THE WATERS AND LOW PRES OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...THE SW GRADIENT
MAY TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THE GULF OF
ALASKA LOW WILL ALSO BRING SOME INCREASING WESTERLY SWELL ON
SUN...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE BY
SUN AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON MON. THIS FRONT SHOULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
    TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 PM
    THIS EVENING TO 2 AM PDT SATURDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 AM TO
    1 PM PDT SATURDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 272153
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
252 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND SOME MORNING FOG IN THE LOWLANDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...A FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY SATURDAY. DRY AND MILD
WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT BRINGS MORE RAIN AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA BEGINNING LATE
MONDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY DROP BELOW CASCADE PASS LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR 130W
WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS
EVENING. IT APPEARS THE FIRST RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE ON THE COAST
BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM AND BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY...AND PROBABLY CLOSER TO 9 TO 10 PM FOR HOOD RIVER. POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST OF 130W WILL SPREAD INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
CONTINUING WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASINGLY LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
THE COAST...COAST RANGE AND CASCADES LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND FOR
MOST OF THE REGION BRING RELATIVELY DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
AIMED AT SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA RIVER AND NORTHWEST WASHINGTON
WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH THAT OUR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL
SEE INCREASE CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO THEIR COUNTERPARTS FARTHER
SOUTH. IN ADDITION...BOTH THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST OUR FAR NORTHWEST
ZONES MAY GET CLIPPED BY A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO DURING THIS
PERIOD. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A RATHER ACTIVE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN LOOKS
TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE A BREAK
IN THE ACTION TOWARDS NEXT THURSDAY SO POPS WERE TRENDED DOWN DURING
THIS PERIOD...BUT OTHERWISE POPS WERE NUDGED UPWARDS INTO THE HIGH
END CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SNOW
LEVELS LOOK TO HOVER BETWEEN 3K AND 4KFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AB/NEUMAN

&&

.AVIATION...MARINE STRATUS PUSHED UP THE COAST AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS
HAS MOSTLY BURNED OFF OVER THE VALLEY...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AT THE COAST. A COLD FRONT
JUST OFFSHORE WILL SPREAD RAIN ONTO THE COAST AFTER 00Z...THEN
SPREAD INLAND THIS EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE
VALLEY BY 06Z TO 09Z. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE
FRONT. RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO
SAT MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS DURING HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY. EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SAT AFTERNOON...WITH VFR AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN AND LIKELY MVFR CIGS
FOR A PERIOD BETWEEN 02Z AND 07Z. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY VFR BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR DURING
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS NEARING THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH BUOY 29 NOW SEEING GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE FURTHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE ONSHORE BY AROUND 6 PM AND WINDS WILL TURN MORE
WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE POST FRONTAL
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SEAS
WILL ALSO INCREASE A BIT WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...REACHING NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE 10 FT AT TIMES...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS WHERE
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO QUIET DOWN SAT MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRES
BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGHER PRES OVER
THE WATERS AND LOW PRES OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...THE SW GRADIENT
MAY TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THE GULF OF
ALASKA LOW WILL ALSO BRING SOME INCREASING WESTERLY SWELL ON
SUN...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE BY
SUN AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON MON. THIS FRONT SHOULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
    TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 PM
    THIS EVENING TO 2 AM PDT SATURDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 AM TO
    1 PM PDT SATURDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KSEW 272139
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...THEN CHANGE TO SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND A FRONT. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL STEER WEATHER
SYSTEMS INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHWEST WASHINGTON OVER THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE MONDAY WITH
RAIN. A COOL SHOWERY UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY.
SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE KLGX COASTAL RADAR IS PICKING UP LIGHT RAIN NEAR
THE COAST. FORKS MEASURED THIS PAST HOUR SO THE FRONTAL TIMING
APPEARS ON TRACK. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BULK OF MOISTURE
AND LIFT TRACKING INTO SRN B.C. BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT NOW
INSIDE 130 W WILL BRING RAIN TO WRN WA THIS EVENING. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PICK UP LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING ADDITIONAL
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED RAIN AMOUNTS TO THE W/SW FACING MOUNTAIN
SLOPES. SHADOWING IN THE LEE OF THE OLYMPICS WILL REDUCE QPF AMOUNTS
JUST TO THE NE OF THE OLYMPICS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A COUPLE
TENTHS. A QUARTER TO LOCALLY ONE HALF INCH COULD FALL OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOWLANDS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF ELEVATED
AROUND 7000 FEET BUT SHOULD FALL OFF TO AROUND 5000 FEET AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND TO 4000 TO 4500 FEET SATURDAY MORNING. SINCE THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BEFORE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE MOST THE PASSES AND LIMITED TO
A FEW INCHES AT HIGHER SPOTS LIKE MOUNT BAKER. STEVENS COULD
CONCEIVABLY PICK UP A COUPLE INCHES AT THE SUMMIT WHILE NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED LOWER DOWN AT SNOQUALMIE.

MODELS STILL SHOW A FAVORABLE PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE PATTERN
FOR SATURDAY. WITH THE 850 MB FLOW REMAINING MORE WLY...ANY
CONVERGENCE ZONE SHOULD STAY N OF SEATTLE. IT WILL ALSO BECOME
BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR GREATER PUGET SOUND...SW WINDS OF 15 TO
25 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE POPS IN PLACE. IT WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

THE PATTERN BECOMES A BIT TRICKIER BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NEARLY
ZONAL MOIST FLOW BECOMES DIRECTED INTO SRN B.C. AND NW WA. THE
STREAM OF MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO MEANDER A LITTLE AND ANY SWD PUSH
WILL BRING COULD BRING RAIN INTO PUGET SOUND. OTHER MODELS LIKE THE
NAM-12 ARE FURTHER N WITH THE MOISTURE BAND SO I OPTED TO KEEP MOST
OF PUGET SOUND SWD DRY DURING THE SUNDAY-MONDAY MORNING PERIOD.

THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL AMPLIFY THE INTERIOR WRN US RIDGE LATER ON
MONDAY. THIS ALLOWS A DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST
WHICH SHOULD PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE BOOSTED TO LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT. MERCER

.LONG TERM...THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW SPLIT FLOW AND SERIES OF MOSTLY
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. TUESDAY LOOKS WET AND FRIDAY LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF STAYING DRY. BUT TIMING IS NOT LIKELY TO BE VERY RELIABLE
GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND COASTAL
STRATUS WILL COMBINE WITH THE FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST AND SPREAD
INLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP ON THE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY SPREAD INLAND THIS EVENING.
THE FRONT IS FAIRLY NARROW AND THE RAIN SHOULD TURN TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. A PSCZ WILL PROBABLY FORM LATER TONIGHT
AND PERHAPS GIVE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND LOW CIGS THROUGH SAT MORNING
BETWEEN THE EVERETT AREA AND THE NORTH PART OF HOOD CANAL. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS SW AND THE STABLE AIR MASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT.

KSEA...A COLD FRONT WILL REACH SEATTLE THIS EVENING SO RAIN WILL
DEVELOP AND THEN SWITCH TO SHOWERS TONIGHT. A PSCZ IS LIKELY ON
SATURDAY BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CITY SO THE WIND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SW ON SAT.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REACH THE INLAND WATERS THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP
FOR THE WINDS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS EASING BY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A FAIRLY BRISK
WESTERLY IN THE STRAIT ON SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLIES TO THE COASTAL WATERS AGAIN LATER
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML














000
FXUS66 KSEW 272139
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...THEN CHANGE TO SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND A FRONT. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL STEER WEATHER
SYSTEMS INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHWEST WASHINGTON OVER THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE MONDAY WITH
RAIN. A COOL SHOWERY UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY.
SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE KLGX COASTAL RADAR IS PICKING UP LIGHT RAIN NEAR
THE COAST. FORKS MEASURED THIS PAST HOUR SO THE FRONTAL TIMING
APPEARS ON TRACK. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BULK OF MOISTURE
AND LIFT TRACKING INTO SRN B.C. BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT NOW
INSIDE 130 W WILL BRING RAIN TO WRN WA THIS EVENING. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PICK UP LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING ADDITIONAL
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED RAIN AMOUNTS TO THE W/SW FACING MOUNTAIN
SLOPES. SHADOWING IN THE LEE OF THE OLYMPICS WILL REDUCE QPF AMOUNTS
JUST TO THE NE OF THE OLYMPICS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A COUPLE
TENTHS. A QUARTER TO LOCALLY ONE HALF INCH COULD FALL OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOWLANDS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF ELEVATED
AROUND 7000 FEET BUT SHOULD FALL OFF TO AROUND 5000 FEET AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND TO 4000 TO 4500 FEET SATURDAY MORNING. SINCE THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BEFORE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE MOST THE PASSES AND LIMITED TO
A FEW INCHES AT HIGHER SPOTS LIKE MOUNT BAKER. STEVENS COULD
CONCEIVABLY PICK UP A COUPLE INCHES AT THE SUMMIT WHILE NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED LOWER DOWN AT SNOQUALMIE.

MODELS STILL SHOW A FAVORABLE PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE PATTERN
FOR SATURDAY. WITH THE 850 MB FLOW REMAINING MORE WLY...ANY
CONVERGENCE ZONE SHOULD STAY N OF SEATTLE. IT WILL ALSO BECOME
BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR GREATER PUGET SOUND...SW WINDS OF 15 TO
25 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE POPS IN PLACE. IT WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

THE PATTERN BECOMES A BIT TRICKIER BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NEARLY
ZONAL MOIST FLOW BECOMES DIRECTED INTO SRN B.C. AND NW WA. THE
STREAM OF MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO MEANDER A LITTLE AND ANY SWD PUSH
WILL BRING COULD BRING RAIN INTO PUGET SOUND. OTHER MODELS LIKE THE
NAM-12 ARE FURTHER N WITH THE MOISTURE BAND SO I OPTED TO KEEP MOST
OF PUGET SOUND SWD DRY DURING THE SUNDAY-MONDAY MORNING PERIOD.

THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL AMPLIFY THE INTERIOR WRN US RIDGE LATER ON
MONDAY. THIS ALLOWS A DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST
WHICH SHOULD PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE BOOSTED TO LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT. MERCER

.LONG TERM...THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW SPLIT FLOW AND SERIES OF MOSTLY
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. TUESDAY LOOKS WET AND FRIDAY LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF STAYING DRY. BUT TIMING IS NOT LIKELY TO BE VERY RELIABLE
GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND COASTAL
STRATUS WILL COMBINE WITH THE FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST AND SPREAD
INLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP ON THE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY SPREAD INLAND THIS EVENING.
THE FRONT IS FAIRLY NARROW AND THE RAIN SHOULD TURN TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. A PSCZ WILL PROBABLY FORM LATER TONIGHT
AND PERHAPS GIVE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND LOW CIGS THROUGH SAT MORNING
BETWEEN THE EVERETT AREA AND THE NORTH PART OF HOOD CANAL. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS SW AND THE STABLE AIR MASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT.

KSEA...A COLD FRONT WILL REACH SEATTLE THIS EVENING SO RAIN WILL
DEVELOP AND THEN SWITCH TO SHOWERS TONIGHT. A PSCZ IS LIKELY ON
SATURDAY BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CITY SO THE WIND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SW ON SAT.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REACH THE INLAND WATERS THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP
FOR THE WINDS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS EASING BY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A FAIRLY BRISK
WESTERLY IN THE STRAIT ON SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLIES TO THE COASTAL WATERS AGAIN LATER
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML














000
FXUS66 KSEW 272139
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...THEN CHANGE TO SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND A FRONT. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL STEER WEATHER
SYSTEMS INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHWEST WASHINGTON OVER THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE MONDAY WITH
RAIN. A COOL SHOWERY UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY.
SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE KLGX COASTAL RADAR IS PICKING UP LIGHT RAIN NEAR
THE COAST. FORKS MEASURED THIS PAST HOUR SO THE FRONTAL TIMING
APPEARS ON TRACK. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BULK OF MOISTURE
AND LIFT TRACKING INTO SRN B.C. BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT NOW
INSIDE 130 W WILL BRING RAIN TO WRN WA THIS EVENING. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PICK UP LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING ADDITIONAL
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED RAIN AMOUNTS TO THE W/SW FACING MOUNTAIN
SLOPES. SHADOWING IN THE LEE OF THE OLYMPICS WILL REDUCE QPF AMOUNTS
JUST TO THE NE OF THE OLYMPICS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A COUPLE
TENTHS. A QUARTER TO LOCALLY ONE HALF INCH COULD FALL OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOWLANDS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF ELEVATED
AROUND 7000 FEET BUT SHOULD FALL OFF TO AROUND 5000 FEET AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND TO 4000 TO 4500 FEET SATURDAY MORNING. SINCE THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BEFORE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE MOST THE PASSES AND LIMITED TO
A FEW INCHES AT HIGHER SPOTS LIKE MOUNT BAKER. STEVENS COULD
CONCEIVABLY PICK UP A COUPLE INCHES AT THE SUMMIT WHILE NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED LOWER DOWN AT SNOQUALMIE.

MODELS STILL SHOW A FAVORABLE PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE PATTERN
FOR SATURDAY. WITH THE 850 MB FLOW REMAINING MORE WLY...ANY
CONVERGENCE ZONE SHOULD STAY N OF SEATTLE. IT WILL ALSO BECOME
BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR GREATER PUGET SOUND...SW WINDS OF 15 TO
25 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE POPS IN PLACE. IT WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

THE PATTERN BECOMES A BIT TRICKIER BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NEARLY
ZONAL MOIST FLOW BECOMES DIRECTED INTO SRN B.C. AND NW WA. THE
STREAM OF MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO MEANDER A LITTLE AND ANY SWD PUSH
WILL BRING COULD BRING RAIN INTO PUGET SOUND. OTHER MODELS LIKE THE
NAM-12 ARE FURTHER N WITH THE MOISTURE BAND SO I OPTED TO KEEP MOST
OF PUGET SOUND SWD DRY DURING THE SUNDAY-MONDAY MORNING PERIOD.

THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL AMPLIFY THE INTERIOR WRN US RIDGE LATER ON
MONDAY. THIS ALLOWS A DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST
WHICH SHOULD PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE BOOSTED TO LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT. MERCER

.LONG TERM...THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW SPLIT FLOW AND SERIES OF MOSTLY
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. TUESDAY LOOKS WET AND FRIDAY LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF STAYING DRY. BUT TIMING IS NOT LIKELY TO BE VERY RELIABLE
GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND COASTAL
STRATUS WILL COMBINE WITH THE FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST AND SPREAD
INLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP ON THE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY SPREAD INLAND THIS EVENING.
THE FRONT IS FAIRLY NARROW AND THE RAIN SHOULD TURN TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. A PSCZ WILL PROBABLY FORM LATER TONIGHT
AND PERHAPS GIVE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND LOW CIGS THROUGH SAT MORNING
BETWEEN THE EVERETT AREA AND THE NORTH PART OF HOOD CANAL. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS SW AND THE STABLE AIR MASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT.

KSEA...A COLD FRONT WILL REACH SEATTLE THIS EVENING SO RAIN WILL
DEVELOP AND THEN SWITCH TO SHOWERS TONIGHT. A PSCZ IS LIKELY ON
SATURDAY BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CITY SO THE WIND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SW ON SAT.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REACH THE INLAND WATERS THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP
FOR THE WINDS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS EASING BY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A FAIRLY BRISK
WESTERLY IN THE STRAIT ON SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLIES TO THE COASTAL WATERS AGAIN LATER
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML














000
FXUS66 KSEW 272139
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...THEN CHANGE TO SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND A FRONT. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL STEER WEATHER
SYSTEMS INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHWEST WASHINGTON OVER THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE MONDAY WITH
RAIN. A COOL SHOWERY UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY.
SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE KLGX COASTAL RADAR IS PICKING UP LIGHT RAIN NEAR
THE COAST. FORKS MEASURED THIS PAST HOUR SO THE FRONTAL TIMING
APPEARS ON TRACK. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BULK OF MOISTURE
AND LIFT TRACKING INTO SRN B.C. BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT NOW
INSIDE 130 W WILL BRING RAIN TO WRN WA THIS EVENING. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PICK UP LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING ADDITIONAL
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED RAIN AMOUNTS TO THE W/SW FACING MOUNTAIN
SLOPES. SHADOWING IN THE LEE OF THE OLYMPICS WILL REDUCE QPF AMOUNTS
JUST TO THE NE OF THE OLYMPICS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A COUPLE
TENTHS. A QUARTER TO LOCALLY ONE HALF INCH COULD FALL OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOWLANDS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF ELEVATED
AROUND 7000 FEET BUT SHOULD FALL OFF TO AROUND 5000 FEET AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND TO 4000 TO 4500 FEET SATURDAY MORNING. SINCE THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BEFORE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE MOST THE PASSES AND LIMITED TO
A FEW INCHES AT HIGHER SPOTS LIKE MOUNT BAKER. STEVENS COULD
CONCEIVABLY PICK UP A COUPLE INCHES AT THE SUMMIT WHILE NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED LOWER DOWN AT SNOQUALMIE.

MODELS STILL SHOW A FAVORABLE PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE PATTERN
FOR SATURDAY. WITH THE 850 MB FLOW REMAINING MORE WLY...ANY
CONVERGENCE ZONE SHOULD STAY N OF SEATTLE. IT WILL ALSO BECOME
BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR GREATER PUGET SOUND...SW WINDS OF 15 TO
25 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE POPS IN PLACE. IT WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

THE PATTERN BECOMES A BIT TRICKIER BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NEARLY
ZONAL MOIST FLOW BECOMES DIRECTED INTO SRN B.C. AND NW WA. THE
STREAM OF MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO MEANDER A LITTLE AND ANY SWD PUSH
WILL BRING COULD BRING RAIN INTO PUGET SOUND. OTHER MODELS LIKE THE
NAM-12 ARE FURTHER N WITH THE MOISTURE BAND SO I OPTED TO KEEP MOST
OF PUGET SOUND SWD DRY DURING THE SUNDAY-MONDAY MORNING PERIOD.

THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL AMPLIFY THE INTERIOR WRN US RIDGE LATER ON
MONDAY. THIS ALLOWS A DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST
WHICH SHOULD PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE BOOSTED TO LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT. MERCER

.LONG TERM...THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW SPLIT FLOW AND SERIES OF MOSTLY
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. TUESDAY LOOKS WET AND FRIDAY LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF STAYING DRY. BUT TIMING IS NOT LIKELY TO BE VERY RELIABLE
GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND COASTAL
STRATUS WILL COMBINE WITH THE FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST AND SPREAD
INLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP ON THE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY SPREAD INLAND THIS EVENING.
THE FRONT IS FAIRLY NARROW AND THE RAIN SHOULD TURN TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. A PSCZ WILL PROBABLY FORM LATER TONIGHT
AND PERHAPS GIVE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND LOW CIGS THROUGH SAT MORNING
BETWEEN THE EVERETT AREA AND THE NORTH PART OF HOOD CANAL. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS SW AND THE STABLE AIR MASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT.

KSEA...A COLD FRONT WILL REACH SEATTLE THIS EVENING SO RAIN WILL
DEVELOP AND THEN SWITCH TO SHOWERS TONIGHT. A PSCZ IS LIKELY ON
SATURDAY BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CITY SO THE WIND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SW ON SAT.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REACH THE INLAND WATERS THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP
FOR THE WINDS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS EASING BY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A FAIRLY BRISK
WESTERLY IN THE STRAIT ON SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLIES TO THE COASTAL WATERS AGAIN LATER
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML














000
FXUS66 KSEW 272139
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...THEN CHANGE TO SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND A FRONT. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL STEER WEATHER
SYSTEMS INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHWEST WASHINGTON OVER THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE MONDAY WITH
RAIN. A COOL SHOWERY UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY.
SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE KLGX COASTAL RADAR IS PICKING UP LIGHT RAIN NEAR
THE COAST. FORKS MEASURED THIS PAST HOUR SO THE FRONTAL TIMING
APPEARS ON TRACK. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BULK OF MOISTURE
AND LIFT TRACKING INTO SRN B.C. BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT NOW
INSIDE 130 W WILL BRING RAIN TO WRN WA THIS EVENING. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PICK UP LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING ADDITIONAL
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED RAIN AMOUNTS TO THE W/SW FACING MOUNTAIN
SLOPES. SHADOWING IN THE LEE OF THE OLYMPICS WILL REDUCE QPF AMOUNTS
JUST TO THE NE OF THE OLYMPICS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A COUPLE
TENTHS. A QUARTER TO LOCALLY ONE HALF INCH COULD FALL OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOWLANDS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF ELEVATED
AROUND 7000 FEET BUT SHOULD FALL OFF TO AROUND 5000 FEET AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND TO 4000 TO 4500 FEET SATURDAY MORNING. SINCE THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BEFORE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE MOST THE PASSES AND LIMITED TO
A FEW INCHES AT HIGHER SPOTS LIKE MOUNT BAKER. STEVENS COULD
CONCEIVABLY PICK UP A COUPLE INCHES AT THE SUMMIT WHILE NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED LOWER DOWN AT SNOQUALMIE.

MODELS STILL SHOW A FAVORABLE PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE PATTERN
FOR SATURDAY. WITH THE 850 MB FLOW REMAINING MORE WLY...ANY
CONVERGENCE ZONE SHOULD STAY N OF SEATTLE. IT WILL ALSO BECOME
BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR GREATER PUGET SOUND...SW WINDS OF 15 TO
25 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE POPS IN PLACE. IT WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

THE PATTERN BECOMES A BIT TRICKIER BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NEARLY
ZONAL MOIST FLOW BECOMES DIRECTED INTO SRN B.C. AND NW WA. THE
STREAM OF MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO MEANDER A LITTLE AND ANY SWD PUSH
WILL BRING COULD BRING RAIN INTO PUGET SOUND. OTHER MODELS LIKE THE
NAM-12 ARE FURTHER N WITH THE MOISTURE BAND SO I OPTED TO KEEP MOST
OF PUGET SOUND SWD DRY DURING THE SUNDAY-MONDAY MORNING PERIOD.

THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL AMPLIFY THE INTERIOR WRN US RIDGE LATER ON
MONDAY. THIS ALLOWS A DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST
WHICH SHOULD PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE BOOSTED TO LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT. MERCER

.LONG TERM...THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW SPLIT FLOW AND SERIES OF MOSTLY
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. TUESDAY LOOKS WET AND FRIDAY LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF STAYING DRY. BUT TIMING IS NOT LIKELY TO BE VERY RELIABLE
GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND COASTAL
STRATUS WILL COMBINE WITH THE FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST AND SPREAD
INLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP ON THE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY SPREAD INLAND THIS EVENING.
THE FRONT IS FAIRLY NARROW AND THE RAIN SHOULD TURN TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. A PSCZ WILL PROBABLY FORM LATER TONIGHT
AND PERHAPS GIVE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND LOW CIGS THROUGH SAT MORNING
BETWEEN THE EVERETT AREA AND THE NORTH PART OF HOOD CANAL. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS SW AND THE STABLE AIR MASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT.

KSEA...A COLD FRONT WILL REACH SEATTLE THIS EVENING SO RAIN WILL
DEVELOP AND THEN SWITCH TO SHOWERS TONIGHT. A PSCZ IS LIKELY ON
SATURDAY BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CITY SO THE WIND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SW ON SAT.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REACH THE INLAND WATERS THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP
FOR THE WINDS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS EASING BY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A FAIRLY BRISK
WESTERLY IN THE STRAIT ON SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLIES TO THE COASTAL WATERS AGAIN LATER
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML














000
FXUS66 KSEW 272139
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...THEN CHANGE TO SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND A FRONT. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL STEER WEATHER
SYSTEMS INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHWEST WASHINGTON OVER THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE MONDAY WITH
RAIN. A COOL SHOWERY UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY.
SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE KLGX COASTAL RADAR IS PICKING UP LIGHT RAIN NEAR
THE COAST. FORKS MEASURED THIS PAST HOUR SO THE FRONTAL TIMING
APPEARS ON TRACK. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BULK OF MOISTURE
AND LIFT TRACKING INTO SRN B.C. BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT NOW
INSIDE 130 W WILL BRING RAIN TO WRN WA THIS EVENING. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PICK UP LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING ADDITIONAL
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED RAIN AMOUNTS TO THE W/SW FACING MOUNTAIN
SLOPES. SHADOWING IN THE LEE OF THE OLYMPICS WILL REDUCE QPF AMOUNTS
JUST TO THE NE OF THE OLYMPICS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A COUPLE
TENTHS. A QUARTER TO LOCALLY ONE HALF INCH COULD FALL OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOWLANDS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF ELEVATED
AROUND 7000 FEET BUT SHOULD FALL OFF TO AROUND 5000 FEET AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND TO 4000 TO 4500 FEET SATURDAY MORNING. SINCE THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BEFORE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE MOST THE PASSES AND LIMITED TO
A FEW INCHES AT HIGHER SPOTS LIKE MOUNT BAKER. STEVENS COULD
CONCEIVABLY PICK UP A COUPLE INCHES AT THE SUMMIT WHILE NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED LOWER DOWN AT SNOQUALMIE.

MODELS STILL SHOW A FAVORABLE PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE PATTERN
FOR SATURDAY. WITH THE 850 MB FLOW REMAINING MORE WLY...ANY
CONVERGENCE ZONE SHOULD STAY N OF SEATTLE. IT WILL ALSO BECOME
BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR GREATER PUGET SOUND...SW WINDS OF 15 TO
25 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE POPS IN PLACE. IT WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

THE PATTERN BECOMES A BIT TRICKIER BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NEARLY
ZONAL MOIST FLOW BECOMES DIRECTED INTO SRN B.C. AND NW WA. THE
STREAM OF MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO MEANDER A LITTLE AND ANY SWD PUSH
WILL BRING COULD BRING RAIN INTO PUGET SOUND. OTHER MODELS LIKE THE
NAM-12 ARE FURTHER N WITH THE MOISTURE BAND SO I OPTED TO KEEP MOST
OF PUGET SOUND SWD DRY DURING THE SUNDAY-MONDAY MORNING PERIOD.

THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL AMPLIFY THE INTERIOR WRN US RIDGE LATER ON
MONDAY. THIS ALLOWS A DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST
WHICH SHOULD PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE BOOSTED TO LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT. MERCER

.LONG TERM...THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW SPLIT FLOW AND SERIES OF MOSTLY
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. TUESDAY LOOKS WET AND FRIDAY LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF STAYING DRY. BUT TIMING IS NOT LIKELY TO BE VERY RELIABLE
GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. MERCER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND COASTAL
STRATUS WILL COMBINE WITH THE FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST AND SPREAD
INLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP ON THE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY SPREAD INLAND THIS EVENING.
THE FRONT IS FAIRLY NARROW AND THE RAIN SHOULD TURN TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. A PSCZ WILL PROBABLY FORM LATER TONIGHT
AND PERHAPS GIVE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND LOW CIGS THROUGH SAT MORNING
BETWEEN THE EVERETT AREA AND THE NORTH PART OF HOOD CANAL. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS SW AND THE STABLE AIR MASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT.

KSEA...A COLD FRONT WILL REACH SEATTLE THIS EVENING SO RAIN WILL
DEVELOP AND THEN SWITCH TO SHOWERS TONIGHT. A PSCZ IS LIKELY ON
SATURDAY BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CITY SO THE WIND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SW ON SAT.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REACH THE INLAND WATERS THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP
FOR THE WINDS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS EASING BY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A FAIRLY BRISK
WESTERLY IN THE STRAIT ON SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLIES TO THE COASTAL WATERS AGAIN LATER
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML















000
FXUS66 KOTX 272133
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
233 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving cold front will arrive tonight bringing widespread
showers, gusty winds, and the potential for thunderstorms to
southeast Washington and portions of the Idaho Panhandle. Saturday
will be quite windy with gusts of 40 mph possible over Palouse,
West Plains, and Upper Columbia Basin. The weather Sunday and
Monday should be mild and relatively dry. Another fast moving
front on Tuesday will bring more showers and wind.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sat...

Thunder and showers: We backed off the pcpn and thunder potential
through late afternoon to early evening as it looks like much of
the surface will remain capped. Showers and thunder will then
rapidly develop and spread NE across much of Ern and N Idaho as
the cold front and upper trough (currently just offshore) moves
inland. Convective mode: Shear and thermodynamic profiles show the
main threat will be very gusty winds, with any thunderstorm
outflow augmenting the already strong synoptic-scale pressure
gradient dry slot winds overnight. Severe gusts (gust to 58 mph)
is a possibility, but not likely with the strongest embedded
thunderstorms. Steering flow for these cells alone should be at
least 30-35 kts with this embedded thunder. Small hail is
possible. The challenge tonight will be how much thunder is
generated across Nrn Wa late tonight as the vort max (and
associated cold pool and steep mid-level lapse rates) translate
east rather quickly. If this was occurring during peak heating,
thunder would be a certainty.

Winds: We`ll issue a wind advisory with the passage of the cold
front this evening through midday Sat for especially the Palouse
area as a significant mid-level dry slot surges across Ern Wa.
Initially the heavy showers and thunder will help to mix stronger
winds aloft (35-40 kts) to the sfc, then strengthening pressure
gradients and cold advection overnight following fropa will help
to transfer 45-50kt winds aloft in a nearly unidirectional
westerly vertical wind profile.bz

Saturday night through Friday...A gulf of Alaska area of low
pressure juxtaposed against a weak ridge of high pressure with
axis placement generally to the east of Northern Idaho allows for
a persistent flux of moisture through an elongated baroclinic band
located between the low and the ridge. The placement of the
baroclinic band is far enough to the north through Monday so as to
allow for a dry forecast for most locations with the exception of
locations close to the British Columbia Border and the North
Cascade Crest. Another cold front wipes out the ridge Monday night
into Tuesday. As it does this is will spread precipitation from
west to east and allow for Windy Conditions during and after its
passage Tuesday. From about Tuesday night on Through Thursday the
jet stream straddles the forecast area along the southern Border
which allows for a conditionally unstable airmass and associated
cold pool aloft to overhang Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho
through most if not all of this interval which allows for a cool
forecast with mainly diurnally driven showers and the possibility
of some frost with more widespread temperatures just below
freezing Wednesday night. By Friday the trof aloft exits to the
east and leaves a more flat zonal flow with the jet stream in
closer proximity which would suggest a further decrease in pops
but perhaps a return of breezy conditions as the jet stream gets
positioned closer overhead of Eastern Washington and Northern
Idaho. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A vigorous early spring cold front will collide with an
unseasonably warm and moist air mass tonight bringing widespread
showers and embedded thunderstorms to north Idaho and the eastern
third of Washington. Strong winds will also develop behind the
cold front after 07-09z and persist into Sunday afternoon. Gusts
of 30-38kts will be possible in Spokane, Coeur D`Alene, and
especially Pullman. bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  60  39  59  40  62 /  80  40   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  45  59  38  59  38  63 /  90  70   0  10  10  10
Pullman        46  58  40  58  41  64 /  90  40   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       51  64  41  63  42  68 /  90  20   0   0  10  10
Colville       44  63  39  60  39  63 /  70  60   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      45  56  38  57  36  62 / 100  90   0  10  10  10
Kellogg        42  53  36  56  38  60 / 100 100   0  10  10  10
Moses Lake     48  65  40  65  39  67 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      48  65  43  65  44  68 /  10  10   0  10  10  10
Omak           44  65  39  64  39  66 /  40  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Saturday for
     Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Saturday for
     Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 272133
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
233 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving cold front will arrive tonight bringing widespread
showers, gusty winds, and the potential for thunderstorms to
southeast Washington and portions of the Idaho Panhandle. Saturday
will be quite windy with gusts of 40 mph possible over Palouse,
West Plains, and Upper Columbia Basin. The weather Sunday and
Monday should be mild and relatively dry. Another fast moving
front on Tuesday will bring more showers and wind.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sat...

Thunder and showers: We backed off the pcpn and thunder potential
through late afternoon to early evening as it looks like much of
the surface will remain capped. Showers and thunder will then
rapidly develop and spread NE across much of Ern and N Idaho as
the cold front and upper trough (currently just offshore) moves
inland. Convective mode: Shear and thermodynamic profiles show the
main threat will be very gusty winds, with any thunderstorm
outflow augmenting the already strong synoptic-scale pressure
gradient dry slot winds overnight. Severe gusts (gust to 58 mph)
is a possibility, but not likely with the strongest embedded
thunderstorms. Steering flow for these cells alone should be at
least 30-35 kts with this embedded thunder. Small hail is
possible. The challenge tonight will be how much thunder is
generated across Nrn Wa late tonight as the vort max (and
associated cold pool and steep mid-level lapse rates) translate
east rather quickly. If this was occurring during peak heating,
thunder would be a certainty.

Winds: We`ll issue a wind advisory with the passage of the cold
front this evening through midday Sat for especially the Palouse
area as a significant mid-level dry slot surges across Ern Wa.
Initially the heavy showers and thunder will help to mix stronger
winds aloft (35-40 kts) to the sfc, then strengthening pressure
gradients and cold advection overnight following fropa will help
to transfer 45-50kt winds aloft in a nearly unidirectional
westerly vertical wind profile.bz

Saturday night through Friday...A gulf of Alaska area of low
pressure juxtaposed against a weak ridge of high pressure with
axis placement generally to the east of Northern Idaho allows for
a persistent flux of moisture through an elongated baroclinic band
located between the low and the ridge. The placement of the
baroclinic band is far enough to the north through Monday so as to
allow for a dry forecast for most locations with the exception of
locations close to the British Columbia Border and the North
Cascade Crest. Another cold front wipes out the ridge Monday night
into Tuesday. As it does this is will spread precipitation from
west to east and allow for Windy Conditions during and after its
passage Tuesday. From about Tuesday night on Through Thursday the
jet stream straddles the forecast area along the southern Border
which allows for a conditionally unstable airmass and associated
cold pool aloft to overhang Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho
through most if not all of this interval which allows for a cool
forecast with mainly diurnally driven showers and the possibility
of some frost with more widespread temperatures just below
freezing Wednesday night. By Friday the trof aloft exits to the
east and leaves a more flat zonal flow with the jet stream in
closer proximity which would suggest a further decrease in pops
but perhaps a return of breezy conditions as the jet stream gets
positioned closer overhead of Eastern Washington and Northern
Idaho. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A vigorous early spring cold front will collide with an
unseasonably warm and moist air mass tonight bringing widespread
showers and embedded thunderstorms to north Idaho and the eastern
third of Washington. Strong winds will also develop behind the
cold front after 07-09z and persist into Sunday afternoon. Gusts
of 30-38kts will be possible in Spokane, Coeur D`Alene, and
especially Pullman. bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  60  39  59  40  62 /  80  40   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  45  59  38  59  38  63 /  90  70   0  10  10  10
Pullman        46  58  40  58  41  64 /  90  40   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       51  64  41  63  42  68 /  90  20   0   0  10  10
Colville       44  63  39  60  39  63 /  70  60   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      45  56  38  57  36  62 / 100  90   0  10  10  10
Kellogg        42  53  36  56  38  60 / 100 100   0  10  10  10
Moses Lake     48  65  40  65  39  67 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      48  65  43  65  44  68 /  10  10   0  10  10  10
Omak           44  65  39  64  39  66 /  40  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Saturday for
     Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Saturday for
     Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 272133
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
233 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving cold front will arrive tonight bringing widespread
showers, gusty winds, and the potential for thunderstorms to
southeast Washington and portions of the Idaho Panhandle. Saturday
will be quite windy with gusts of 40 mph possible over Palouse,
West Plains, and Upper Columbia Basin. The weather Sunday and
Monday should be mild and relatively dry. Another fast moving
front on Tuesday will bring more showers and wind.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sat...

Thunder and showers: We backed off the pcpn and thunder potential
through late afternoon to early evening as it looks like much of
the surface will remain capped. Showers and thunder will then
rapidly develop and spread NE across much of Ern and N Idaho as
the cold front and upper trough (currently just offshore) moves
inland. Convective mode: Shear and thermodynamic profiles show the
main threat will be very gusty winds, with any thunderstorm
outflow augmenting the already strong synoptic-scale pressure
gradient dry slot winds overnight. Severe gusts (gust to 58 mph)
is a possibility, but not likely with the strongest embedded
thunderstorms. Steering flow for these cells alone should be at
least 30-35 kts with this embedded thunder. Small hail is
possible. The challenge tonight will be how much thunder is
generated across Nrn Wa late tonight as the vort max (and
associated cold pool and steep mid-level lapse rates) translate
east rather quickly. If this was occurring during peak heating,
thunder would be a certainty.

Winds: We`ll issue a wind advisory with the passage of the cold
front this evening through midday Sat for especially the Palouse
area as a significant mid-level dry slot surges across Ern Wa.
Initially the heavy showers and thunder will help to mix stronger
winds aloft (35-40 kts) to the sfc, then strengthening pressure
gradients and cold advection overnight following fropa will help
to transfer 45-50kt winds aloft in a nearly unidirectional
westerly vertical wind profile.bz

Saturday night through Friday...A gulf of Alaska area of low
pressure juxtaposed against a weak ridge of high pressure with
axis placement generally to the east of Northern Idaho allows for
a persistent flux of moisture through an elongated baroclinic band
located between the low and the ridge. The placement of the
baroclinic band is far enough to the north through Monday so as to
allow for a dry forecast for most locations with the exception of
locations close to the British Columbia Border and the North
Cascade Crest. Another cold front wipes out the ridge Monday night
into Tuesday. As it does this is will spread precipitation from
west to east and allow for Windy Conditions during and after its
passage Tuesday. From about Tuesday night on Through Thursday the
jet stream straddles the forecast area along the southern Border
which allows for a conditionally unstable airmass and associated
cold pool aloft to overhang Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho
through most if not all of this interval which allows for a cool
forecast with mainly diurnally driven showers and the possibility
of some frost with more widespread temperatures just below
freezing Wednesday night. By Friday the trof aloft exits to the
east and leaves a more flat zonal flow with the jet stream in
closer proximity which would suggest a further decrease in pops
but perhaps a return of breezy conditions as the jet stream gets
positioned closer overhead of Eastern Washington and Northern
Idaho. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A vigorous early spring cold front will collide with an
unseasonably warm and moist air mass tonight bringing widespread
showers and embedded thunderstorms to north Idaho and the eastern
third of Washington. Strong winds will also develop behind the
cold front after 07-09z and persist into Sunday afternoon. Gusts
of 30-38kts will be possible in Spokane, Coeur D`Alene, and
especially Pullman. bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  60  39  59  40  62 /  80  40   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  45  59  38  59  38  63 /  90  70   0  10  10  10
Pullman        46  58  40  58  41  64 /  90  40   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       51  64  41  63  42  68 /  90  20   0   0  10  10
Colville       44  63  39  60  39  63 /  70  60   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      45  56  38  57  36  62 / 100  90   0  10  10  10
Kellogg        42  53  36  56  38  60 / 100 100   0  10  10  10
Moses Lake     48  65  40  65  39  67 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      48  65  43  65  44  68 /  10  10   0  10  10  10
Omak           44  65  39  64  39  66 /  40  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Saturday for
     Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Saturday for
     Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 272133
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
233 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving cold front will arrive tonight bringing widespread
showers, gusty winds, and the potential for thunderstorms to
southeast Washington and portions of the Idaho Panhandle. Saturday
will be quite windy with gusts of 40 mph possible over Palouse,
West Plains, and Upper Columbia Basin. The weather Sunday and
Monday should be mild and relatively dry. Another fast moving
front on Tuesday will bring more showers and wind.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sat...

Thunder and showers: We backed off the pcpn and thunder potential
through late afternoon to early evening as it looks like much of
the surface will remain capped. Showers and thunder will then
rapidly develop and spread NE across much of Ern and N Idaho as
the cold front and upper trough (currently just offshore) moves
inland. Convective mode: Shear and thermodynamic profiles show the
main threat will be very gusty winds, with any thunderstorm
outflow augmenting the already strong synoptic-scale pressure
gradient dry slot winds overnight. Severe gusts (gust to 58 mph)
is a possibility, but not likely with the strongest embedded
thunderstorms. Steering flow for these cells alone should be at
least 30-35 kts with this embedded thunder. Small hail is
possible. The challenge tonight will be how much thunder is
generated across Nrn Wa late tonight as the vort max (and
associated cold pool and steep mid-level lapse rates) translate
east rather quickly. If this was occurring during peak heating,
thunder would be a certainty.

Winds: We`ll issue a wind advisory with the passage of the cold
front this evening through midday Sat for especially the Palouse
area as a significant mid-level dry slot surges across Ern Wa.
Initially the heavy showers and thunder will help to mix stronger
winds aloft (35-40 kts) to the sfc, then strengthening pressure
gradients and cold advection overnight following fropa will help
to transfer 45-50kt winds aloft in a nearly unidirectional
westerly vertical wind profile.bz

Saturday night through Friday...A gulf of Alaska area of low
pressure juxtaposed against a weak ridge of high pressure with
axis placement generally to the east of Northern Idaho allows for
a persistent flux of moisture through an elongated baroclinic band
located between the low and the ridge. The placement of the
baroclinic band is far enough to the north through Monday so as to
allow for a dry forecast for most locations with the exception of
locations close to the British Columbia Border and the North
Cascade Crest. Another cold front wipes out the ridge Monday night
into Tuesday. As it does this is will spread precipitation from
west to east and allow for Windy Conditions during and after its
passage Tuesday. From about Tuesday night on Through Thursday the
jet stream straddles the forecast area along the southern Border
which allows for a conditionally unstable airmass and associated
cold pool aloft to overhang Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho
through most if not all of this interval which allows for a cool
forecast with mainly diurnally driven showers and the possibility
of some frost with more widespread temperatures just below
freezing Wednesday night. By Friday the trof aloft exits to the
east and leaves a more flat zonal flow with the jet stream in
closer proximity which would suggest a further decrease in pops
but perhaps a return of breezy conditions as the jet stream gets
positioned closer overhead of Eastern Washington and Northern
Idaho. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A vigorous early spring cold front will collide with an
unseasonably warm and moist air mass tonight bringing widespread
showers and embedded thunderstorms to north Idaho and the eastern
third of Washington. Strong winds will also develop behind the
cold front after 07-09z and persist into Sunday afternoon. Gusts
of 30-38kts will be possible in Spokane, Coeur D`Alene, and
especially Pullman. bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  60  39  59  40  62 /  80  40   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  45  59  38  59  38  63 /  90  70   0  10  10  10
Pullman        46  58  40  58  41  64 /  90  40   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       51  64  41  63  42  68 /  90  20   0   0  10  10
Colville       44  63  39  60  39  63 /  70  60   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      45  56  38  57  36  62 / 100  90   0  10  10  10
Kellogg        42  53  36  56  38  60 / 100 100   0  10  10  10
Moses Lake     48  65  40  65  39  67 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      48  65  43  65  44  68 /  10  10   0  10  10  10
Omak           44  65  39  64  39  66 /  40  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Saturday for
     Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Saturday for
     Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 272133
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
233 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving cold front will arrive tonight bringing widespread
showers, gusty winds, and the potential for thunderstorms to
southeast Washington and portions of the Idaho Panhandle. Saturday
will be quite windy with gusts of 40 mph possible over Palouse,
West Plains, and Upper Columbia Basin. The weather Sunday and
Monday should be mild and relatively dry. Another fast moving
front on Tuesday will bring more showers and wind.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sat...

Thunder and showers: We backed off the pcpn and thunder potential
through late afternoon to early evening as it looks like much of
the surface will remain capped. Showers and thunder will then
rapidly develop and spread NE across much of Ern and N Idaho as
the cold front and upper trough (currently just offshore) moves
inland. Convective mode: Shear and thermodynamic profiles show the
main threat will be very gusty winds, with any thunderstorm
outflow augmenting the already strong synoptic-scale pressure
gradient dry slot winds overnight. Severe gusts (gust to 58 mph)
is a possibility, but not likely with the strongest embedded
thunderstorms. Steering flow for these cells alone should be at
least 30-35 kts with this embedded thunder. Small hail is
possible. The challenge tonight will be how much thunder is
generated across Nrn Wa late tonight as the vort max (and
associated cold pool and steep mid-level lapse rates) translate
east rather quickly. If this was occurring during peak heating,
thunder would be a certainty.

Winds: We`ll issue a wind advisory with the passage of the cold
front this evening through midday Sat for especially the Palouse
area as a significant mid-level dry slot surges across Ern Wa.
Initially the heavy showers and thunder will help to mix stronger
winds aloft (35-40 kts) to the sfc, then strengthening pressure
gradients and cold advection overnight following fropa will help
to transfer 45-50kt winds aloft in a nearly unidirectional
westerly vertical wind profile.bz

Saturday night through Friday...A gulf of Alaska area of low
pressure juxtaposed against a weak ridge of high pressure with
axis placement generally to the east of Northern Idaho allows for
a persistent flux of moisture through an elongated baroclinic band
located between the low and the ridge. The placement of the
baroclinic band is far enough to the north through Monday so as to
allow for a dry forecast for most locations with the exception of
locations close to the British Columbia Border and the North
Cascade Crest. Another cold front wipes out the ridge Monday night
into Tuesday. As it does this is will spread precipitation from
west to east and allow for Windy Conditions during and after its
passage Tuesday. From about Tuesday night on Through Thursday the
jet stream straddles the forecast area along the southern Border
which allows for a conditionally unstable airmass and associated
cold pool aloft to overhang Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho
through most if not all of this interval which allows for a cool
forecast with mainly diurnally driven showers and the possibility
of some frost with more widespread temperatures just below
freezing Wednesday night. By Friday the trof aloft exits to the
east and leaves a more flat zonal flow with the jet stream in
closer proximity which would suggest a further decrease in pops
but perhaps a return of breezy conditions as the jet stream gets
positioned closer overhead of Eastern Washington and Northern
Idaho. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A vigorous early spring cold front will collide with an
unseasonably warm and moist air mass tonight bringing widespread
showers and embedded thunderstorms to north Idaho and the eastern
third of Washington. Strong winds will also develop behind the
cold front after 07-09z and persist into Sunday afternoon. Gusts
of 30-38kts will be possible in Spokane, Coeur D`Alene, and
especially Pullman. bz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        47  60  39  59  40  62 /  80  40   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  45  59  38  59  38  63 /  90  70   0  10  10  10
Pullman        46  58  40  58  41  64 /  90  40   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       51  64  41  63  42  68 /  90  20   0   0  10  10
Colville       44  63  39  60  39  63 /  70  60   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      45  56  38  57  36  62 / 100  90   0  10  10  10
Kellogg        42  53  36  56  38  60 / 100 100   0  10  10  10
Moses Lake     48  65  40  65  39  67 /  10  10   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      48  65  43  65  44  68 /  10  10   0  10  10  10
Omak           44  65  39  64  39  66 /  40  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Saturday for
     Idaho Palouse.

WA...Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Saturday for
     Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 271721
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1021 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Record warm temperatures will be possible today over much of the
Inland Northwest. A fast moving cold front will arrive tonight
bringing widespread showers, gusty winds, and the potential for
thunderstorms to southeast Washington and portions of the Idaho
Panhandle. Saturday will be quite windy with gusts of 40 mph
possible over Palouse, West Plains, and Upper Columbia Basin. The
weather Sunday and Monday should be mild and relatively dry.
Another fast moving front on Tuesday will bring more showers and
wind.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today and into tonight: We`ve adjusted the fcst to
prolong the valley fog for the NE Wa mtn valley and N Id
Panhandle zones into midday based on area fcst soundings and
current obs.

High temps: It still looks to be on track to reach record or near
record high temps for the Upper Columbia Basin (includes Moses
Lake)...Palouse...Lewiston...and the Wenatchee to Okanogan Valley
areas.

Thunder and showers: We backed off the pcpn and thunder potential
through this afternoon as it looks like much of the surface will
remain capped until at least late afternoon. Showers and thunder
will then rapidly develop and spread NE across much of Ern and N
Idaho this evening as the cold front and upper trough (currently
just offshore) moves inland. Convective mode: The main threat
certainly will be very gusty winds, with any thunderstorm outflow
augmenting the already strong synoptic-scale pressure gradient
dry slot winds. Severe gusts (gust to 58 mph) is not out of the
question with any of the stronger embedded thunderstorms. Steering
flow alone should be at least 30-35 kts with this embedded
thunder.

Winds: We`ll be strongly contemplating a wind advisory with the
passage of the cold front this evening through midday Sat for
especially the Palouse area as a significant mid-level dry slot
surges across Ern Wa. Initially the heavy showers and thunder will
help to mix stronger winds aloft (40 kts) to the sfc, then
strengthening pressure gradients and cold advection overnight with
the fropa will help to transfer 45-50kt winds aloft in a nearly
unidirectional westerly vertical wind profile.bz

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Valley fog will impact ceilings and visibilities around
Spokane, Coeur D`Alene, Sandpoint, Bonners Ferry, and Colville
through 16z this morning. A vigorous early spring cold front will
collide with an unseasonably warm and moist air mass tonight
bringing widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms to north
Idaho and the eastern third of Washington. Strong winds will also
develop behind the cold front after 07-09z and persist into Sunday
afternoon. Gusts of 30-35kts will be possible in Spokane, Coeur
D`Alene, Pullman, and Lewiston near the end of the TAF period
09-12z. /GKoch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        69  47  60  39  59  40 /   0  70  40   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  69  45  59  38  59  38 /  10  80  70   0  10  10
Pullman        71  46  58  40  58  41 /  10  90  40   0  10  10
Lewiston       75  51  64  41  63  42 /  10  90  20   0   0  10
Colville       68  44  63  39  60  39 /   0  50  50   0  10  10
Sandpoint      66  45  56  38  57  36 /  10  80  80   0  10  10
Kellogg        68  42  53  36  56  38 /  10  90  90   0  10  10
Moses Lake     74  48  66  40  65  39 /   0  20  10   0   0  10
Wenatchee      73  48  65  43  65  44 /   0  10  10   0  10  10
Omak           70  44  66  39  64  39 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 271721
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1021 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Record warm temperatures will be possible today over much of the
Inland Northwest. A fast moving cold front will arrive tonight
bringing widespread showers, gusty winds, and the potential for
thunderstorms to southeast Washington and portions of the Idaho
Panhandle. Saturday will be quite windy with gusts of 40 mph
possible over Palouse, West Plains, and Upper Columbia Basin. The
weather Sunday and Monday should be mild and relatively dry.
Another fast moving front on Tuesday will bring more showers and
wind.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today and into tonight: We`ve adjusted the fcst to
prolong the valley fog for the NE Wa mtn valley and N Id
Panhandle zones into midday based on area fcst soundings and
current obs.

High temps: It still looks to be on track to reach record or near
record high temps for the Upper Columbia Basin (includes Moses
Lake)...Palouse...Lewiston...and the Wenatchee to Okanogan Valley
areas.

Thunder and showers: We backed off the pcpn and thunder potential
through this afternoon as it looks like much of the surface will
remain capped until at least late afternoon. Showers and thunder
will then rapidly develop and spread NE across much of Ern and N
Idaho this evening as the cold front and upper trough (currently
just offshore) moves inland. Convective mode: The main threat
certainly will be very gusty winds, with any thunderstorm outflow
augmenting the already strong synoptic-scale pressure gradient
dry slot winds. Severe gusts (gust to 58 mph) is not out of the
question with any of the stronger embedded thunderstorms. Steering
flow alone should be at least 30-35 kts with this embedded
thunder.

Winds: We`ll be strongly contemplating a wind advisory with the
passage of the cold front this evening through midday Sat for
especially the Palouse area as a significant mid-level dry slot
surges across Ern Wa. Initially the heavy showers and thunder will
help to mix stronger winds aloft (40 kts) to the sfc, then
strengthening pressure gradients and cold advection overnight with
the fropa will help to transfer 45-50kt winds aloft in a nearly
unidirectional westerly vertical wind profile.bz

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Valley fog will impact ceilings and visibilities around
Spokane, Coeur D`Alene, Sandpoint, Bonners Ferry, and Colville
through 16z this morning. A vigorous early spring cold front will
collide with an unseasonably warm and moist air mass tonight
bringing widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms to north
Idaho and the eastern third of Washington. Strong winds will also
develop behind the cold front after 07-09z and persist into Sunday
afternoon. Gusts of 30-35kts will be possible in Spokane, Coeur
D`Alene, Pullman, and Lewiston near the end of the TAF period
09-12z. /GKoch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        69  47  60  39  59  40 /   0  70  40   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  69  45  59  38  59  38 /  10  80  70   0  10  10
Pullman        71  46  58  40  58  41 /  10  90  40   0  10  10
Lewiston       75  51  64  41  63  42 /  10  90  20   0   0  10
Colville       68  44  63  39  60  39 /   0  50  50   0  10  10
Sandpoint      66  45  56  38  57  36 /  10  80  80   0  10  10
Kellogg        68  42  53  36  56  38 /  10  90  90   0  10  10
Moses Lake     74  48  66  40  65  39 /   0  20  10   0   0  10
Wenatchee      73  48  65  43  65  44 /   0  10  10   0  10  10
Omak           70  44  66  39  64  39 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 271721
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1021 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Record warm temperatures will be possible today over much of the
Inland Northwest. A fast moving cold front will arrive tonight
bringing widespread showers, gusty winds, and the potential for
thunderstorms to southeast Washington and portions of the Idaho
Panhandle. Saturday will be quite windy with gusts of 40 mph
possible over Palouse, West Plains, and Upper Columbia Basin. The
weather Sunday and Monday should be mild and relatively dry.
Another fast moving front on Tuesday will bring more showers and
wind.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today and into tonight: We`ve adjusted the fcst to
prolong the valley fog for the NE Wa mtn valley and N Id
Panhandle zones into midday based on area fcst soundings and
current obs.

High temps: It still looks to be on track to reach record or near
record high temps for the Upper Columbia Basin (includes Moses
Lake)...Palouse...Lewiston...and the Wenatchee to Okanogan Valley
areas.

Thunder and showers: We backed off the pcpn and thunder potential
through this afternoon as it looks like much of the surface will
remain capped until at least late afternoon. Showers and thunder
will then rapidly develop and spread NE across much of Ern and N
Idaho this evening as the cold front and upper trough (currently
just offshore) moves inland. Convective mode: The main threat
certainly will be very gusty winds, with any thunderstorm outflow
augmenting the already strong synoptic-scale pressure gradient
dry slot winds. Severe gusts (gust to 58 mph) is not out of the
question with any of the stronger embedded thunderstorms. Steering
flow alone should be at least 30-35 kts with this embedded
thunder.

Winds: We`ll be strongly contemplating a wind advisory with the
passage of the cold front this evening through midday Sat for
especially the Palouse area as a significant mid-level dry slot
surges across Ern Wa. Initially the heavy showers and thunder will
help to mix stronger winds aloft (40 kts) to the sfc, then
strengthening pressure gradients and cold advection overnight with
the fropa will help to transfer 45-50kt winds aloft in a nearly
unidirectional westerly vertical wind profile.bz

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Valley fog will impact ceilings and visibilities around
Spokane, Coeur D`Alene, Sandpoint, Bonners Ferry, and Colville
through 16z this morning. A vigorous early spring cold front will
collide with an unseasonably warm and moist air mass tonight
bringing widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms to north
Idaho and the eastern third of Washington. Strong winds will also
develop behind the cold front after 07-09z and persist into Sunday
afternoon. Gusts of 30-35kts will be possible in Spokane, Coeur
D`Alene, Pullman, and Lewiston near the end of the TAF period
09-12z. /GKoch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        69  47  60  39  59  40 /   0  70  40   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  69  45  59  38  59  38 /  10  80  70   0  10  10
Pullman        71  46  58  40  58  41 /  10  90  40   0  10  10
Lewiston       75  51  64  41  63  42 /  10  90  20   0   0  10
Colville       68  44  63  39  60  39 /   0  50  50   0  10  10
Sandpoint      66  45  56  38  57  36 /  10  80  80   0  10  10
Kellogg        68  42  53  36  56  38 /  10  90  90   0  10  10
Moses Lake     74  48  66  40  65  39 /   0  20  10   0   0  10
Wenatchee      73  48  65  43  65  44 /   0  10  10   0  10  10
Omak           70  44  66  39  64  39 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 271721
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1021 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Record warm temperatures will be possible today over much of the
Inland Northwest. A fast moving cold front will arrive tonight
bringing widespread showers, gusty winds, and the potential for
thunderstorms to southeast Washington and portions of the Idaho
Panhandle. Saturday will be quite windy with gusts of 40 mph
possible over Palouse, West Plains, and Upper Columbia Basin. The
weather Sunday and Monday should be mild and relatively dry.
Another fast moving front on Tuesday will bring more showers and
wind.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today and into tonight: We`ve adjusted the fcst to
prolong the valley fog for the NE Wa mtn valley and N Id
Panhandle zones into midday based on area fcst soundings and
current obs.

High temps: It still looks to be on track to reach record or near
record high temps for the Upper Columbia Basin (includes Moses
Lake)...Palouse...Lewiston...and the Wenatchee to Okanogan Valley
areas.

Thunder and showers: We backed off the pcpn and thunder potential
through this afternoon as it looks like much of the surface will
remain capped until at least late afternoon. Showers and thunder
will then rapidly develop and spread NE across much of Ern and N
Idaho this evening as the cold front and upper trough (currently
just offshore) moves inland. Convective mode: The main threat
certainly will be very gusty winds, with any thunderstorm outflow
augmenting the already strong synoptic-scale pressure gradient
dry slot winds. Severe gusts (gust to 58 mph) is not out of the
question with any of the stronger embedded thunderstorms. Steering
flow alone should be at least 30-35 kts with this embedded
thunder.

Winds: We`ll be strongly contemplating a wind advisory with the
passage of the cold front this evening through midday Sat for
especially the Palouse area as a significant mid-level dry slot
surges across Ern Wa. Initially the heavy showers and thunder will
help to mix stronger winds aloft (40 kts) to the sfc, then
strengthening pressure gradients and cold advection overnight with
the fropa will help to transfer 45-50kt winds aloft in a nearly
unidirectional westerly vertical wind profile.bz

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Valley fog will impact ceilings and visibilities around
Spokane, Coeur D`Alene, Sandpoint, Bonners Ferry, and Colville
through 16z this morning. A vigorous early spring cold front will
collide with an unseasonably warm and moist air mass tonight
bringing widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms to north
Idaho and the eastern third of Washington. Strong winds will also
develop behind the cold front after 07-09z and persist into Sunday
afternoon. Gusts of 30-35kts will be possible in Spokane, Coeur
D`Alene, Pullman, and Lewiston near the end of the TAF period
09-12z. /GKoch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        69  47  60  39  59  40 /   0  70  40   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  69  45  59  38  59  38 /  10  80  70   0  10  10
Pullman        71  46  58  40  58  41 /  10  90  40   0  10  10
Lewiston       75  51  64  41  63  42 /  10  90  20   0   0  10
Colville       68  44  63  39  60  39 /   0  50  50   0  10  10
Sandpoint      66  45  56  38  57  36 /  10  80  80   0  10  10
Kellogg        68  42  53  36  56  38 /  10  90  90   0  10  10
Moses Lake     74  48  66  40  65  39 /   0  20  10   0   0  10
Wenatchee      73  48  65  43  65  44 /   0  10  10   0  10  10
Omak           70  44  66  39  64  39 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KSEW 271611
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TO THE INTERIOR BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL STEER
WEATHER SYSTEMS MOSTLY INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA OVER THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL REACH WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE MONDAY. A COOL SHOWERY
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBS SHOW SOME FOG AROUND
THE LOWLANDS WITH MAINLY LIGHT FLOW AT THE SURFACE. GRADIENTS ARE
TURNING POSITIVE AHEAD OF A FRONT OFFSHORE SO FOG WILL MIX OUT BUT
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD
TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY MID 60S.

CURRENT IR SATELLITE SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS NEAR A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW FEATURE TRACKING TOWARD SRN B.C. THIS MORNING. THIS IS
WHERE THE RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED TODAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT WILL REACH THE WA COAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON....THEN SPREAD
INLAND DURING THE EVENING. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF
AND DIG SE ACROSS WRN WA TONIGHT USHERING IN COOLER AIR ALOFT. SNOW
LEVELS AROUND 7000 FEET AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD FALL TO 4500 TO
5000 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHER PASSES LIKE
STEVENS COULD GET AN INCH OR TWO AND POSSIBLY 2-5 INCHES AT SPOTS
LIKE MOUNT BAKER ABOVE PASS LEVEL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WILL
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MOUNTAIN ZONES FOR
TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. SURFACE RIDGING ALONG THE COAST WILL BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR A
PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE TO FORM...MAINLY N OF SEATTLE. THERE
WILL BE SOME SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WITH RAIN OR SNOW AT TIMES IN THE
MOUNTAINS. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW
THE BULK OF MOISTURE HANGING UP OVER SRN B.C. AND EXTREME NW
WA...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD EXTEND FURTHER
S AT TIMES. MERCER

.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA
LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT FOR A PERIOD OF RAIN. COOLER SHOWERY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS SUGGEST DRIER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHES OF FOG SHOULD LIFT AND MIX AWAY THIS MORNING AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND PICKS UP AHEAD OF A FRONT
JUST OFFSHORE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND INLAND THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL SPREAD INLAND WITH THE
FRONT AND TURN TO SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT.

KSEA...FOG MADE IT INTO SEA TAC BUT SHOULD LIFT OUT BY 18Z A SLY
FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE AND MIX THE AIR MASS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
PRETTY RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN BY EVENING AND PERHAPS A
FAIRLY BREEZY SW WIND TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TO THE INLAND WATERS THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR THE WINDS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH A BREAK IN THE
WINDS. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHERLIES TO THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL
     WATERS...CENTRAL STRAIT...EAST STRAIT...PUGET SOUND/HOOD
     CANAL...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 271611
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TO THE INTERIOR BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL STEER
WEATHER SYSTEMS MOSTLY INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA OVER THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL REACH WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE MONDAY. A COOL SHOWERY
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBS SHOW SOME FOG AROUND
THE LOWLANDS WITH MAINLY LIGHT FLOW AT THE SURFACE. GRADIENTS ARE
TURNING POSITIVE AHEAD OF A FRONT OFFSHORE SO FOG WILL MIX OUT BUT
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD
TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY MID 60S.

CURRENT IR SATELLITE SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS NEAR A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW FEATURE TRACKING TOWARD SRN B.C. THIS MORNING. THIS IS
WHERE THE RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED TODAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT WILL REACH THE WA COAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON....THEN SPREAD
INLAND DURING THE EVENING. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF
AND DIG SE ACROSS WRN WA TONIGHT USHERING IN COOLER AIR ALOFT. SNOW
LEVELS AROUND 7000 FEET AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD FALL TO 4500 TO
5000 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHER PASSES LIKE
STEVENS COULD GET AN INCH OR TWO AND POSSIBLY 2-5 INCHES AT SPOTS
LIKE MOUNT BAKER ABOVE PASS LEVEL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WILL
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MOUNTAIN ZONES FOR
TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. SURFACE RIDGING ALONG THE COAST WILL BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR A
PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE TO FORM...MAINLY N OF SEATTLE. THERE
WILL BE SOME SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WITH RAIN OR SNOW AT TIMES IN THE
MOUNTAINS. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW
THE BULK OF MOISTURE HANGING UP OVER SRN B.C. AND EXTREME NW
WA...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD EXTEND FURTHER
S AT TIMES. MERCER

.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA
LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT FOR A PERIOD OF RAIN. COOLER SHOWERY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS SUGGEST DRIER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHES OF FOG SHOULD LIFT AND MIX AWAY THIS MORNING AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND PICKS UP AHEAD OF A FRONT
JUST OFFSHORE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND INLAND THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL SPREAD INLAND WITH THE
FRONT AND TURN TO SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT.

KSEA...FOG MADE IT INTO SEA TAC BUT SHOULD LIFT OUT BY 18Z A SLY
FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE AND MIX THE AIR MASS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
PRETTY RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN BY EVENING AND PERHAPS A
FAIRLY BREEZY SW WIND TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TO THE INLAND WATERS THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR THE WINDS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH A BREAK IN THE
WINDS. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHERLIES TO THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL
     WATERS...CENTRAL STRAIT...EAST STRAIT...PUGET SOUND/HOOD
     CANAL...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KSEW 271611
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TO THE INTERIOR BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL STEER
WEATHER SYSTEMS MOSTLY INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA OVER THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL REACH WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE MONDAY. A COOL SHOWERY
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBS SHOW SOME FOG AROUND
THE LOWLANDS WITH MAINLY LIGHT FLOW AT THE SURFACE. GRADIENTS ARE
TURNING POSITIVE AHEAD OF A FRONT OFFSHORE SO FOG WILL MIX OUT BUT
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD
TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY MID 60S.

CURRENT IR SATELLITE SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS NEAR A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW FEATURE TRACKING TOWARD SRN B.C. THIS MORNING. THIS IS
WHERE THE RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED TODAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT WILL REACH THE WA COAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON....THEN SPREAD
INLAND DURING THE EVENING. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF
AND DIG SE ACROSS WRN WA TONIGHT USHERING IN COOLER AIR ALOFT. SNOW
LEVELS AROUND 7000 FEET AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD FALL TO 4500 TO
5000 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHER PASSES LIKE
STEVENS COULD GET AN INCH OR TWO AND POSSIBLY 2-5 INCHES AT SPOTS
LIKE MOUNT BAKER ABOVE PASS LEVEL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WILL
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MOUNTAIN ZONES FOR
TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. SURFACE RIDGING ALONG THE COAST WILL BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR A
PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE TO FORM...MAINLY N OF SEATTLE. THERE
WILL BE SOME SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WITH RAIN OR SNOW AT TIMES IN THE
MOUNTAINS. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW
THE BULK OF MOISTURE HANGING UP OVER SRN B.C. AND EXTREME NW
WA...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD EXTEND FURTHER
S AT TIMES. MERCER

.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA
LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT FOR A PERIOD OF RAIN. COOLER SHOWERY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS SUGGEST DRIER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHES OF FOG SHOULD LIFT AND MIX AWAY THIS MORNING AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND PICKS UP AHEAD OF A FRONT
JUST OFFSHORE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND INLAND THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL SPREAD INLAND WITH THE
FRONT AND TURN TO SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT.

KSEA...FOG MADE IT INTO SEA TAC BUT SHOULD LIFT OUT BY 18Z A SLY
FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE AND MIX THE AIR MASS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
PRETTY RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN BY EVENING AND PERHAPS A
FAIRLY BREEZY SW WIND TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TO THE INLAND WATERS THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR THE WINDS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH A BREAK IN THE
WINDS. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHERLIES TO THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL
     WATERS...CENTRAL STRAIT...EAST STRAIT...PUGET SOUND/HOOD
     CANAL...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS66 KPQR 271606
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
854 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND SOME MORNING FOG IN THE LOWLANDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...A FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY SATURDAY. DRY AND MILD
WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT BRINGS MORE RAIN AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA BEGINNING LATE
MONDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY DROP BELOW CASCADE PASS LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.UPDATE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND FOG PRODUCT INDICATE FOG IS MUCH
LESS WIDESPREAD THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. NONETHELESS...THERE ARE SOME
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON. MCMINNVILLE...CORVALLIS AND PORTIONS
OF CLARK COUNTY HAVE SEEN THE MOST PERSISTENT VISIBILITIES OF A
QUARTER MILE OR LESS THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE PATCHY NATURE OF THE FOG
AND BASED ON THE FACT THAT IS MUCH SHALLOWER THAN YESTERDAY AND
THEREFORE SHOULD DISSIPATE MUCH FASTER...WILL HANDLE THE FOG WITH A
NOWCAST INSTEAD OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A
SOUTHWEST MARINE PUSH IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY WITH LOW CLOUDS FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED ALONG THE ENTIRE OREGON COAST. IN FACT...MARINE CLOUDS ARE
KNOCKING ON THE DOORSTEP OF EUGENE. THE NAM HAS FINALLY PICKED UP ON
THIS IDEA AND SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY ENTER THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY BEFORE BURNING BACK INTO THE COAST RANGE LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS IDEA SEEMS PLAUSIBLE SO TRENDED THE SKY FORECAST TO
DEPICT THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THESE
CLOUDS SPREAD UP THE ENTIRE WILLAMETTE VALLEY EITHER SO THERE IS A
DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
GIVEN THE LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR INFILTRATING OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES...TEMPERATURES WERE NUDGED DOWNWARD IN THIS REGION...BUT IF
CLOUDS WERE TO SPREAD FARTHER NORTH...OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
LIKELY TOO HIGH FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY...TOO.

A FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR 130W WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTHWEST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THE FIRST RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE ON THE COAST BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM AND BETWEEN
6 PM AND 9 PM ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. QPF STILL LOOKS RATHER
LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THE AREA LOOKS TO DRY OUT RELATIVELY QUICKLY SATURDAY
MORNING...EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY.

RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGING LOOKS TO BRING DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
AIMED AT SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA RIVER AND NORTHWEST WASHINGTON
WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH THAT OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES WILL CERTAINLY
SEE INCREASE CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO THEIR COUNTERPARTS FARTHER
SOUTH...AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OR TWO OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD.
/NEUMAN



.LONG TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU...OVERALL
PATTERN REMAINS RATHER ZONAL...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REGION. THIS MEANS FRONTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO
TIME...BUT NO SIGNIFICANTLY STRONG OR ORGANIZED SYSTEMS EXPECTED.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON MON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FOR LATE IN
THE DAY AND MON NIGHT. LIKELY SEE SHOWERS CONTINUE ON TUE AND TUE
NIGHT AS COOLER AIR ALOFT PUSHES ACROSS REGION.
AFTERWARDS...CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION BEGINS TO DROP AS MODELS
DIVERGE ON ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION. WILL TREND TOWARDS DRIER BUT KEEP
SOME MINOR THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ROCKEY.

&&

.AVIATION...POCKETS OF IFR FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE FORMED OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS NOT AS
EXTENSIVE AS WE SAW YESTERDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE FOG AND STRATUS
TO BURN OFF BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. BASED ON SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS
THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS THAT A SOUTHERLY STRATUS SURGE IS
UNDERWAY ALONG THE CENTRAL OR COAST AND THROUGH THE COAST RANGE
GAPS INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. ADDED AN IFR STRATUS DECK TO THE
KEUG TAF THIS MORNING. THE 12Z NAM AND RAP MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE STRATUS MAY SURGE UP THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THROUGH THE
DAY...LIKELY REACHING KSLE AND WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF IT GETTING
INTO THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST MODELS
IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH...SO WILL BE MONITORING SATELLITE TRENDS
CLOSELY.

RAIN AND MVFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF SAT
MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT 17Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SOUTHERLY STRATUS
SURGE WILL BRING IFR CIGS TO THE TERMINAL LATE THIS MORNING OR
THIS AFTERNOON. IF NOT...VFR SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND LIKELY MVFR CIGS LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...BENIGN CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING
WITH WINDS AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS AROUND 8 FT UNDER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS OVER ALL OF THE WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
SEAS MAY CLIMB TO AROUND 10 FT DURING THE PERIOD OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS.

WEAK HIGH PRES RETURNS TO THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON MON. THIS FRONT LOOKS A
LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE AND SHOULD BRING A SOLID ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF GALES. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT SEAS TO REACH INTO THE LOW TEENS LATE SUN OR MON AND REMAIN
ABOVE 10 FT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 1 PM
     PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 PM
     THIS EVENING TO 2 AM PDT SATURDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 271606
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
854 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND SOME MORNING FOG IN THE LOWLANDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...A FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY SATURDAY. DRY AND MILD
WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT BRINGS MORE RAIN AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA BEGINNING LATE
MONDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY DROP BELOW CASCADE PASS LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.UPDATE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND FOG PRODUCT INDICATE FOG IS MUCH
LESS WIDESPREAD THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. NONETHELESS...THERE ARE SOME
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON. MCMINNVILLE...CORVALLIS AND PORTIONS
OF CLARK COUNTY HAVE SEEN THE MOST PERSISTENT VISIBILITIES OF A
QUARTER MILE OR LESS THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE PATCHY NATURE OF THE FOG
AND BASED ON THE FACT THAT IS MUCH SHALLOWER THAN YESTERDAY AND
THEREFORE SHOULD DISSIPATE MUCH FASTER...WILL HANDLE THE FOG WITH A
NOWCAST INSTEAD OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A
SOUTHWEST MARINE PUSH IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY WITH LOW CLOUDS FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED ALONG THE ENTIRE OREGON COAST. IN FACT...MARINE CLOUDS ARE
KNOCKING ON THE DOORSTEP OF EUGENE. THE NAM HAS FINALLY PICKED UP ON
THIS IDEA AND SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY ENTER THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY BEFORE BURNING BACK INTO THE COAST RANGE LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS IDEA SEEMS PLAUSIBLE SO TRENDED THE SKY FORECAST TO
DEPICT THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THESE
CLOUDS SPREAD UP THE ENTIRE WILLAMETTE VALLEY EITHER SO THERE IS A
DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
GIVEN THE LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR INFILTRATING OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES...TEMPERATURES WERE NUDGED DOWNWARD IN THIS REGION...BUT IF
CLOUDS WERE TO SPREAD FARTHER NORTH...OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
LIKELY TOO HIGH FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY...TOO.

A FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR 130W WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTHWEST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THE FIRST RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE ON THE COAST BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM AND BETWEEN
6 PM AND 9 PM ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. QPF STILL LOOKS RATHER
LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THE AREA LOOKS TO DRY OUT RELATIVELY QUICKLY SATURDAY
MORNING...EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY.

RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGING LOOKS TO BRING DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
AIMED AT SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA RIVER AND NORTHWEST WASHINGTON
WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH THAT OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES WILL CERTAINLY
SEE INCREASE CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO THEIR COUNTERPARTS FARTHER
SOUTH...AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OR TWO OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD.
/NEUMAN



.LONG TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU...OVERALL
PATTERN REMAINS RATHER ZONAL...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REGION. THIS MEANS FRONTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO
TIME...BUT NO SIGNIFICANTLY STRONG OR ORGANIZED SYSTEMS EXPECTED.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON MON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FOR LATE IN
THE DAY AND MON NIGHT. LIKELY SEE SHOWERS CONTINUE ON TUE AND TUE
NIGHT AS COOLER AIR ALOFT PUSHES ACROSS REGION.
AFTERWARDS...CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION BEGINS TO DROP AS MODELS
DIVERGE ON ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION. WILL TREND TOWARDS DRIER BUT KEEP
SOME MINOR THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ROCKEY.

&&

.AVIATION...POCKETS OF IFR FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE FORMED OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS NOT AS
EXTENSIVE AS WE SAW YESTERDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE FOG AND STRATUS
TO BURN OFF BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. BASED ON SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS
THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS THAT A SOUTHERLY STRATUS SURGE IS
UNDERWAY ALONG THE CENTRAL OR COAST AND THROUGH THE COAST RANGE
GAPS INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. ADDED AN IFR STRATUS DECK TO THE
KEUG TAF THIS MORNING. THE 12Z NAM AND RAP MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE STRATUS MAY SURGE UP THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THROUGH THE
DAY...LIKELY REACHING KSLE AND WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF IT GETTING
INTO THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST MODELS
IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH...SO WILL BE MONITORING SATELLITE TRENDS
CLOSELY.

RAIN AND MVFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF SAT
MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT 17Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SOUTHERLY STRATUS
SURGE WILL BRING IFR CIGS TO THE TERMINAL LATE THIS MORNING OR
THIS AFTERNOON. IF NOT...VFR SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND LIKELY MVFR CIGS LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...BENIGN CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING
WITH WINDS AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS AROUND 8 FT UNDER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS OVER ALL OF THE WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
SEAS MAY CLIMB TO AROUND 10 FT DURING THE PERIOD OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS.

WEAK HIGH PRES RETURNS TO THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON MON. THIS FRONT LOOKS A
LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE AND SHOULD BRING A SOLID ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF GALES. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT SEAS TO REACH INTO THE LOW TEENS LATE SUN OR MON AND REMAIN
ABOVE 10 FT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 1 PM
     PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 PM
     THIS EVENING TO 2 AM PDT SATURDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 271606
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
854 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND SOME MORNING FOG IN THE LOWLANDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...A FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY SATURDAY. DRY AND MILD
WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT BRINGS MORE RAIN AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA BEGINNING LATE
MONDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY DROP BELOW CASCADE PASS LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.UPDATE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND FOG PRODUCT INDICATE FOG IS MUCH
LESS WIDESPREAD THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. NONETHELESS...THERE ARE SOME
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON. MCMINNVILLE...CORVALLIS AND PORTIONS
OF CLARK COUNTY HAVE SEEN THE MOST PERSISTENT VISIBILITIES OF A
QUARTER MILE OR LESS THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE PATCHY NATURE OF THE FOG
AND BASED ON THE FACT THAT IS MUCH SHALLOWER THAN YESTERDAY AND
THEREFORE SHOULD DISSIPATE MUCH FASTER...WILL HANDLE THE FOG WITH A
NOWCAST INSTEAD OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A
SOUTHWEST MARINE PUSH IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY WITH LOW CLOUDS FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED ALONG THE ENTIRE OREGON COAST. IN FACT...MARINE CLOUDS ARE
KNOCKING ON THE DOORSTEP OF EUGENE. THE NAM HAS FINALLY PICKED UP ON
THIS IDEA AND SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY ENTER THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY BEFORE BURNING BACK INTO THE COAST RANGE LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS IDEA SEEMS PLAUSIBLE SO TRENDED THE SKY FORECAST TO
DEPICT THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THESE
CLOUDS SPREAD UP THE ENTIRE WILLAMETTE VALLEY EITHER SO THERE IS A
DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
GIVEN THE LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR INFILTRATING OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES...TEMPERATURES WERE NUDGED DOWNWARD IN THIS REGION...BUT IF
CLOUDS WERE TO SPREAD FARTHER NORTH...OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
LIKELY TOO HIGH FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY...TOO.

A FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR 130W WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTHWEST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THE FIRST RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE ON THE COAST BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM AND BETWEEN
6 PM AND 9 PM ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. QPF STILL LOOKS RATHER
LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THE AREA LOOKS TO DRY OUT RELATIVELY QUICKLY SATURDAY
MORNING...EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY.

RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGING LOOKS TO BRING DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
AIMED AT SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA RIVER AND NORTHWEST WASHINGTON
WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH THAT OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES WILL CERTAINLY
SEE INCREASE CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO THEIR COUNTERPARTS FARTHER
SOUTH...AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OR TWO OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD.
/NEUMAN



.LONG TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU...OVERALL
PATTERN REMAINS RATHER ZONAL...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REGION. THIS MEANS FRONTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO
TIME...BUT NO SIGNIFICANTLY STRONG OR ORGANIZED SYSTEMS EXPECTED.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON MON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FOR LATE IN
THE DAY AND MON NIGHT. LIKELY SEE SHOWERS CONTINUE ON TUE AND TUE
NIGHT AS COOLER AIR ALOFT PUSHES ACROSS REGION.
AFTERWARDS...CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION BEGINS TO DROP AS MODELS
DIVERGE ON ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION. WILL TREND TOWARDS DRIER BUT KEEP
SOME MINOR THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ROCKEY.

&&

.AVIATION...POCKETS OF IFR FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE FORMED OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS NOT AS
EXTENSIVE AS WE SAW YESTERDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE FOG AND STRATUS
TO BURN OFF BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. BASED ON SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS
THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS THAT A SOUTHERLY STRATUS SURGE IS
UNDERWAY ALONG THE CENTRAL OR COAST AND THROUGH THE COAST RANGE
GAPS INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. ADDED AN IFR STRATUS DECK TO THE
KEUG TAF THIS MORNING. THE 12Z NAM AND RAP MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE STRATUS MAY SURGE UP THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THROUGH THE
DAY...LIKELY REACHING KSLE AND WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF IT GETTING
INTO THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST MODELS
IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH...SO WILL BE MONITORING SATELLITE TRENDS
CLOSELY.

RAIN AND MVFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF SAT
MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT 17Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SOUTHERLY STRATUS
SURGE WILL BRING IFR CIGS TO THE TERMINAL LATE THIS MORNING OR
THIS AFTERNOON. IF NOT...VFR SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND LIKELY MVFR CIGS LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...BENIGN CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING
WITH WINDS AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS AROUND 8 FT UNDER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS OVER ALL OF THE WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
SEAS MAY CLIMB TO AROUND 10 FT DURING THE PERIOD OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS.

WEAK HIGH PRES RETURNS TO THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON MON. THIS FRONT LOOKS A
LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE AND SHOULD BRING A SOLID ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF GALES. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT SEAS TO REACH INTO THE LOW TEENS LATE SUN OR MON AND REMAIN
ABOVE 10 FT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 1 PM
     PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 PM
     THIS EVENING TO 2 AM PDT SATURDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 271606
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
854 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND SOME MORNING FOG IN THE LOWLANDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...A FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY SATURDAY. DRY AND MILD
WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT BRINGS MORE RAIN AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA BEGINNING LATE
MONDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY DROP BELOW CASCADE PASS LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.UPDATE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND FOG PRODUCT INDICATE FOG IS MUCH
LESS WIDESPREAD THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. NONETHELESS...THERE ARE SOME
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON. MCMINNVILLE...CORVALLIS AND PORTIONS
OF CLARK COUNTY HAVE SEEN THE MOST PERSISTENT VISIBILITIES OF A
QUARTER MILE OR LESS THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE PATCHY NATURE OF THE FOG
AND BASED ON THE FACT THAT IS MUCH SHALLOWER THAN YESTERDAY AND
THEREFORE SHOULD DISSIPATE MUCH FASTER...WILL HANDLE THE FOG WITH A
NOWCAST INSTEAD OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A
SOUTHWEST MARINE PUSH IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY WITH LOW CLOUDS FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED ALONG THE ENTIRE OREGON COAST. IN FACT...MARINE CLOUDS ARE
KNOCKING ON THE DOORSTEP OF EUGENE. THE NAM HAS FINALLY PICKED UP ON
THIS IDEA AND SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY ENTER THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY BEFORE BURNING BACK INTO THE COAST RANGE LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS IDEA SEEMS PLAUSIBLE SO TRENDED THE SKY FORECAST TO
DEPICT THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THESE
CLOUDS SPREAD UP THE ENTIRE WILLAMETTE VALLEY EITHER SO THERE IS A
DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
GIVEN THE LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR INFILTRATING OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES...TEMPERATURES WERE NUDGED DOWNWARD IN THIS REGION...BUT IF
CLOUDS WERE TO SPREAD FARTHER NORTH...OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
LIKELY TOO HIGH FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY...TOO.

A FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR 130W WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTHWEST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THE FIRST RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE ON THE COAST BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM AND BETWEEN
6 PM AND 9 PM ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. QPF STILL LOOKS RATHER
LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THE AREA LOOKS TO DRY OUT RELATIVELY QUICKLY SATURDAY
MORNING...EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY.

RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGING LOOKS TO BRING DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
AIMED AT SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA RIVER AND NORTHWEST WASHINGTON
WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH THAT OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES WILL CERTAINLY
SEE INCREASE CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO THEIR COUNTERPARTS FARTHER
SOUTH...AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OR TWO OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD.
/NEUMAN



.LONG TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU...OVERALL
PATTERN REMAINS RATHER ZONAL...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REGION. THIS MEANS FRONTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO
TIME...BUT NO SIGNIFICANTLY STRONG OR ORGANIZED SYSTEMS EXPECTED.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON MON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FOR LATE IN
THE DAY AND MON NIGHT. LIKELY SEE SHOWERS CONTINUE ON TUE AND TUE
NIGHT AS COOLER AIR ALOFT PUSHES ACROSS REGION.
AFTERWARDS...CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION BEGINS TO DROP AS MODELS
DIVERGE ON ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION. WILL TREND TOWARDS DRIER BUT KEEP
SOME MINOR THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ROCKEY.

&&

.AVIATION...POCKETS OF IFR FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE FORMED OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS NOT AS
EXTENSIVE AS WE SAW YESTERDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE FOG AND STRATUS
TO BURN OFF BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. BASED ON SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS
THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS THAT A SOUTHERLY STRATUS SURGE IS
UNDERWAY ALONG THE CENTRAL OR COAST AND THROUGH THE COAST RANGE
GAPS INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. ADDED AN IFR STRATUS DECK TO THE
KEUG TAF THIS MORNING. THE 12Z NAM AND RAP MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE STRATUS MAY SURGE UP THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THROUGH THE
DAY...LIKELY REACHING KSLE AND WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF IT GETTING
INTO THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST MODELS
IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH...SO WILL BE MONITORING SATELLITE TRENDS
CLOSELY.

RAIN AND MVFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF SAT
MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT 17Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SOUTHERLY STRATUS
SURGE WILL BRING IFR CIGS TO THE TERMINAL LATE THIS MORNING OR
THIS AFTERNOON. IF NOT...VFR SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND LIKELY MVFR CIGS LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...BENIGN CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING
WITH WINDS AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS AROUND 8 FT UNDER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS OVER ALL OF THE WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
SEAS MAY CLIMB TO AROUND 10 FT DURING THE PERIOD OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS.

WEAK HIGH PRES RETURNS TO THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON MON. THIS FRONT LOOKS A
LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE AND SHOULD BRING A SOLID ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF GALES. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT SEAS TO REACH INTO THE LOW TEENS LATE SUN OR MON AND REMAIN
ABOVE 10 FT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 1 PM
     PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 PM
     THIS EVENING TO 2 AM PDT SATURDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 271606
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
854 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND SOME MORNING FOG IN THE LOWLANDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...A FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY SATURDAY. DRY AND MILD
WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT BRINGS MORE RAIN AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA BEGINNING LATE
MONDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY DROP BELOW CASCADE PASS LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.UPDATE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND FOG PRODUCT INDICATE FOG IS MUCH
LESS WIDESPREAD THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. NONETHELESS...THERE ARE SOME
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON. MCMINNVILLE...CORVALLIS AND PORTIONS
OF CLARK COUNTY HAVE SEEN THE MOST PERSISTENT VISIBILITIES OF A
QUARTER MILE OR LESS THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE PATCHY NATURE OF THE FOG
AND BASED ON THE FACT THAT IS MUCH SHALLOWER THAN YESTERDAY AND
THEREFORE SHOULD DISSIPATE MUCH FASTER...WILL HANDLE THE FOG WITH A
NOWCAST INSTEAD OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A
SOUTHWEST MARINE PUSH IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY WITH LOW CLOUDS FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED ALONG THE ENTIRE OREGON COAST. IN FACT...MARINE CLOUDS ARE
KNOCKING ON THE DOORSTEP OF EUGENE. THE NAM HAS FINALLY PICKED UP ON
THIS IDEA AND SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY ENTER THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY BEFORE BURNING BACK INTO THE COAST RANGE LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS IDEA SEEMS PLAUSIBLE SO TRENDED THE SKY FORECAST TO
DEPICT THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THESE
CLOUDS SPREAD UP THE ENTIRE WILLAMETTE VALLEY EITHER SO THERE IS A
DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
GIVEN THE LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR INFILTRATING OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES...TEMPERATURES WERE NUDGED DOWNWARD IN THIS REGION...BUT IF
CLOUDS WERE TO SPREAD FARTHER NORTH...OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
LIKELY TOO HIGH FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY...TOO.

A FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR 130W WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTHWEST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THE FIRST RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE ON THE COAST BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM AND BETWEEN
6 PM AND 9 PM ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. QPF STILL LOOKS RATHER
LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THE AREA LOOKS TO DRY OUT RELATIVELY QUICKLY SATURDAY
MORNING...EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY.

RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGING LOOKS TO BRING DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
AIMED AT SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA RIVER AND NORTHWEST WASHINGTON
WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH THAT OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES WILL CERTAINLY
SEE INCREASE CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO THEIR COUNTERPARTS FARTHER
SOUTH...AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OR TWO OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD.
/NEUMAN



.LONG TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU...OVERALL
PATTERN REMAINS RATHER ZONAL...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REGION. THIS MEANS FRONTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO
TIME...BUT NO SIGNIFICANTLY STRONG OR ORGANIZED SYSTEMS EXPECTED.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON MON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FOR LATE IN
THE DAY AND MON NIGHT. LIKELY SEE SHOWERS CONTINUE ON TUE AND TUE
NIGHT AS COOLER AIR ALOFT PUSHES ACROSS REGION.
AFTERWARDS...CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION BEGINS TO DROP AS MODELS
DIVERGE ON ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION. WILL TREND TOWARDS DRIER BUT KEEP
SOME MINOR THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ROCKEY.

&&

.AVIATION...POCKETS OF IFR FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE FORMED OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS NOT AS
EXTENSIVE AS WE SAW YESTERDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE FOG AND STRATUS
TO BURN OFF BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. BASED ON SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS
THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS THAT A SOUTHERLY STRATUS SURGE IS
UNDERWAY ALONG THE CENTRAL OR COAST AND THROUGH THE COAST RANGE
GAPS INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. ADDED AN IFR STRATUS DECK TO THE
KEUG TAF THIS MORNING. THE 12Z NAM AND RAP MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE STRATUS MAY SURGE UP THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THROUGH THE
DAY...LIKELY REACHING KSLE AND WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF IT GETTING
INTO THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST MODELS
IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH...SO WILL BE MONITORING SATELLITE TRENDS
CLOSELY.

RAIN AND MVFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF SAT
MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT 17Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SOUTHERLY STRATUS
SURGE WILL BRING IFR CIGS TO THE TERMINAL LATE THIS MORNING OR
THIS AFTERNOON. IF NOT...VFR SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND LIKELY MVFR CIGS LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...BENIGN CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING
WITH WINDS AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS AROUND 8 FT UNDER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS OVER ALL OF THE WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
SEAS MAY CLIMB TO AROUND 10 FT DURING THE PERIOD OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS.

WEAK HIGH PRES RETURNS TO THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON MON. THIS FRONT LOOKS A
LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE AND SHOULD BRING A SOLID ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF GALES. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT SEAS TO REACH INTO THE LOW TEENS LATE SUN OR MON AND REMAIN
ABOVE 10 FT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 1 PM
     PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 PM
     THIS EVENING TO 2 AM PDT SATURDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 271606
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
854 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND SOME MORNING FOG IN THE LOWLANDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...A FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY SATURDAY. DRY AND MILD
WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT BRINGS MORE RAIN AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA BEGINNING LATE
MONDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY DROP BELOW CASCADE PASS LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.UPDATE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND FOG PRODUCT INDICATE FOG IS MUCH
LESS WIDESPREAD THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. NONETHELESS...THERE ARE SOME
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON. MCMINNVILLE...CORVALLIS AND PORTIONS
OF CLARK COUNTY HAVE SEEN THE MOST PERSISTENT VISIBILITIES OF A
QUARTER MILE OR LESS THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE PATCHY NATURE OF THE FOG
AND BASED ON THE FACT THAT IS MUCH SHALLOWER THAN YESTERDAY AND
THEREFORE SHOULD DISSIPATE MUCH FASTER...WILL HANDLE THE FOG WITH A
NOWCAST INSTEAD OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A
SOUTHWEST MARINE PUSH IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY WITH LOW CLOUDS FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED ALONG THE ENTIRE OREGON COAST. IN FACT...MARINE CLOUDS ARE
KNOCKING ON THE DOORSTEP OF EUGENE. THE NAM HAS FINALLY PICKED UP ON
THIS IDEA AND SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY ENTER THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY BEFORE BURNING BACK INTO THE COAST RANGE LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS IDEA SEEMS PLAUSIBLE SO TRENDED THE SKY FORECAST TO
DEPICT THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THESE
CLOUDS SPREAD UP THE ENTIRE WILLAMETTE VALLEY EITHER SO THERE IS A
DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
GIVEN THE LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR INFILTRATING OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES...TEMPERATURES WERE NUDGED DOWNWARD IN THIS REGION...BUT IF
CLOUDS WERE TO SPREAD FARTHER NORTH...OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
LIKELY TOO HIGH FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY...TOO.

A FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR 130W WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTHWEST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THE FIRST RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE ON THE COAST BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM AND BETWEEN
6 PM AND 9 PM ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. QPF STILL LOOKS RATHER
LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THE AREA LOOKS TO DRY OUT RELATIVELY QUICKLY SATURDAY
MORNING...EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY.

RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGING LOOKS TO BRING DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
AIMED AT SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA RIVER AND NORTHWEST WASHINGTON
WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH THAT OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES WILL CERTAINLY
SEE INCREASE CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO THEIR COUNTERPARTS FARTHER
SOUTH...AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OR TWO OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD.
/NEUMAN



.LONG TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU...OVERALL
PATTERN REMAINS RATHER ZONAL...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REGION. THIS MEANS FRONTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO
TIME...BUT NO SIGNIFICANTLY STRONG OR ORGANIZED SYSTEMS EXPECTED.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON MON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FOR LATE IN
THE DAY AND MON NIGHT. LIKELY SEE SHOWERS CONTINUE ON TUE AND TUE
NIGHT AS COOLER AIR ALOFT PUSHES ACROSS REGION.
AFTERWARDS...CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION BEGINS TO DROP AS MODELS
DIVERGE ON ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION. WILL TREND TOWARDS DRIER BUT KEEP
SOME MINOR THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ROCKEY.

&&

.AVIATION...POCKETS OF IFR FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE FORMED OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS NOT AS
EXTENSIVE AS WE SAW YESTERDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE FOG AND STRATUS
TO BURN OFF BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. BASED ON SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS
THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS THAT A SOUTHERLY STRATUS SURGE IS
UNDERWAY ALONG THE CENTRAL OR COAST AND THROUGH THE COAST RANGE
GAPS INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. ADDED AN IFR STRATUS DECK TO THE
KEUG TAF THIS MORNING. THE 12Z NAM AND RAP MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE STRATUS MAY SURGE UP THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THROUGH THE
DAY...LIKELY REACHING KSLE AND WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF IT GETTING
INTO THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST MODELS
IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH...SO WILL BE MONITORING SATELLITE TRENDS
CLOSELY.

RAIN AND MVFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF SAT
MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT 17Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SOUTHERLY STRATUS
SURGE WILL BRING IFR CIGS TO THE TERMINAL LATE THIS MORNING OR
THIS AFTERNOON. IF NOT...VFR SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND LIKELY MVFR CIGS LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...BENIGN CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING
WITH WINDS AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS AROUND 8 FT UNDER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS OVER ALL OF THE WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
SEAS MAY CLIMB TO AROUND 10 FT DURING THE PERIOD OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS.

WEAK HIGH PRES RETURNS TO THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON MON. THIS FRONT LOOKS A
LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE AND SHOULD BRING A SOLID ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF GALES. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT SEAS TO REACH INTO THE LOW TEENS LATE SUN OR MON AND REMAIN
ABOVE 10 FT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 1 PM
     PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 PM
     THIS EVENING TO 2 AM PDT SATURDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KOTX 271351
AFDOTX

AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
651 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Record warm temperatures will be possible today over much of the
Inland Northwest. A fast moving cold front will arrive tonight
bringing widespread showers, gusty winds, and the potential for
thunderstorms to southeast Washington and portions of the Idaho
Panhanle. Saturday will be quite windy with gusts of 40 mph
possible over Palouse, West Plains, and Upper Columbia Basin. The
weather Sunday and Monday should be mild and relatively dry.
Another fast moving front on Tuesday will bring more showers and
wind.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today: Unseasonably warm temperatures will be the main story for
today. A highly amplified upper level ridge/trough pattern will
increase deep southerly flow over the Pacific Northwest this
afternoon. Warm mid-level temperatures will be advected into the
region. The 850mb thermal ridge will extend from central Oregon
into the Idaho Panhandle during the afternoon with temperatures
as warm as 14-16C over southeast Washington and the southern
Panhandle. In May or June, 850mb temperatures of 14-16C would
yield highs in the low 80s, but the potential for some cloudiness
and the relatively low March sun angle suggest a more
conservative mid 70s for the L-C Valley is prudent. The mild
southerly flow will also destabilize the atmosphere ahead of
tonight`s cold front. At this time, it appears that there will
enough convective inhibition (mid-level capping) to impede showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon. The weakest capping according to
the GFS and NAM will be over northeast Oregon, southeast
Washington, and the southern/central Panhandle. A 20 percent
chance for showers and thunderstorms has been introduced after 2PM
followed by much higher chances this evening with the arrival of
strong frontal forcing.

Tonight and Saturday: A fast moving frontal system will collide
with our anomalously warm/moist air mass this evening. Widespread
showers will blossom along the frontal system by mid evening over
the eastern third of Washington and spread quickly into the Idaho
Panhandle by midnight.

* Thunderstorm potential: The front will probably not arrive early
  enough in the afternoon to tap into peak heating and maximum
  instability. However, given the tight thermal packing expected
  with the front, steep mid-level lapse rates, and abundance of
  mid/low level moisture, there should be a decent chance for
  thunderstorms. The increasing southwest surface pressure
  gradient combined with the potential for downdraft winds
  suggests a small threat for strong wind gusts this evening with
  thunderstorms. Cold advection and west winds undercutting the
  southwesterlies aloft on forecast hodographs do not fit the
  damaging wind prototype, so long-lived bowing segments will
  probably not be a likely scenario. A few small hail reports may
  be possible if the model soundings are accurate in their
  depiction of deep layer CAPE above the -10 to -20C layer.

* Post cold front winds: There is a decent probability that a Wind
  Advisory will be necessary for the Palouse, West Plains and
  portions of the Columbia Basin Saturday morning. Strong deep
  layer cold advection, 850mb winds of 40-50kts, and a tight
  surface pressure gradient suggest the potential for wind gusts
  of 40-45 mph over a good portion of east central and southeast
  Washington Saturday morning. Gradients are progged to relax a
  bit during the day, but gusty conditions will likely persist
  well into the afternoon hours on Saturday. /GKoch

Sunday through Thursday: The weather pattern will remain
progressive for much of next week. Initially, the later half of
the weekend will turn quieter and more stable as a flat ridge sets
up over the Inland Northwest. Pacific moisture will stream over
top of the ridge. This coupled with weak isentropic lift will give
way to plenty of cloud cover and the potential of light
precipitation across the higher terrain near the Canadian border.
Temperatures will remain mild and lighter winds anticipated, even
into Monday as the upper ridge amplifies and warm air funnels into
the region from the south. By Monday night and into Tuesday, a
vigorous cold front will sweep inland and bring the threat of
convection. Instability indices look too weak to introduce the
possibility of thunder, but it will need to be monitored. Winds
will turn breezy and gusty by Tuesday in the wake of the front
with gusts of up to near 35 mph. After this feature exits to the
east, on Wednesday another weather disturbance coupled with a
surface occluded front slides in from the northwest and brings
another round of showers. The main brunt will be mountains from
the Cascades to the Panhandle mountains. May see more breezy winds
across the Columbia Basin by Wednesday afternoon and evening. With
the passage of each of the weather disturbances, the storm track
slowly sags south and the jet stream creeps further into
Washington and north Idaho. By Thursday, another weather impulse
ripples through the region in addition to cold air aloft.
Instability values lower, leading to the potential for more
thunder Thursday afternoon and early evening. Also with each
passing impulse, temperatures cool slightly and snow levels lower
a bit, giving way to a better chance of mountain snow.
Temperatures which start above normal by this weekend, gradually
cool to more typically readings for late March. /rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Valley fog will impact ceilings and visibilities around
Spokane, Coeur D`Alene, Sandpoint, Bonners Ferry, and Colville
through 16z this morning. A vigorous early spring cold front will
collide with an unseasonbly warm and moist air mass tonight
bringing widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms to north
Idaho and the eastern third of Washington. Strong winds will also
develop behind the cold front after 07-09z and persist into Sunday
afternoon. Gusts of 30-35kts will be possible in Spokane, Coeur
D`Alene, Pullman, and Lewiston near the end of the TAF period
09-12z. /GKoch



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        69  47  60  39  59  40 /   0  70  40   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  69  45  59  38  59  38 /  10  80  70   0  10  10
Pullman        71  46  58  40  58  41 /  10  90  40   0  10  10
Lewiston       75  51  64  41  63  42 /  10  90  20   0   0  10
Colville       70  44  63  39  60  39 /  10  50  50   0  10  10
Sandpoint      66  45  56  38  57  36 /  10  80  80   0  10  10
Kellogg        68  42  53  36  56  38 /  10  90  90   0  10  10
Moses Lake     74  48  66  40  65  39 /   0  20  10   0   0  10
Wenatchee      73  48  65  43  65  44 /   0  10  10   0  10  10
Omak           70  44  66  39  64  39 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS66 KOTX 271351
AFDOTX

AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
651 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Record warm temperatures will be possible today over much of the
Inland Northwest. A fast moving cold front will arrive tonight
bringing widespread showers, gusty winds, and the potential for
thunderstorms to southeast Washington and portions of the Idaho
Panhanle. Saturday will be quite windy with gusts of 40 mph
possible over Palouse, West Plains, and Upper Columbia Basin. The
weather Sunday and Monday should be mild and relatively dry.
Another fast moving front on Tuesday will bring more showers and
wind.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today: Unseasonably warm temperatures will be the main story for
today. A highly amplified upper level ridge/trough pattern will
increase deep southerly flow over the Pacific Northwest this
afternoon. Warm mid-level temperatures will be advected into the
region. The 850mb thermal ridge will extend from central Oregon
into the Idaho Panhandle during the afternoon with temperatures
as warm as 14-16C over southeast Washington and the southern
Panhandle. In May or June, 850mb temperatures of 14-16C would
yield highs in the low 80s, but the potential for some cloudiness
and the relatively low March sun angle suggest a more
conservative mid 70s for the L-C Valley is prudent. The mild
southerly flow will also destabilize the atmosphere ahead of
tonight`s cold front. At this time, it appears that there will
enough convective inhibition (mid-level capping) to impede showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon. The weakest capping according to
the GFS and NAM will be over northeast Oregon, southeast
Washington, and the southern/central Panhandle. A 20 percent
chance for showers and thunderstorms has been introduced after 2PM
followed by much higher chances this evening with the arrival of
strong frontal forcing.

Tonight and Saturday: A fast moving frontal system will collide
with our anomalously warm/moist air mass this evening. Widespread
showers will blossom along the frontal system by mid evening over
the eastern third of Washington and spread quickly into the Idaho
Panhandle by midnight.

* Thunderstorm potential: The front will probably not arrive early
  enough in the afternoon to tap into peak heating and maximum
  instability. However, given the tight thermal packing expected
  with the front, steep mid-level lapse rates, and abundance of
  mid/low level moisture, there should be a decent chance for
  thunderstorms. The increasing southwest surface pressure
  gradient combined with the potential for downdraft winds
  suggests a small threat for strong wind gusts this evening with
  thunderstorms. Cold advection and west winds undercutting the
  southwesterlies aloft on forecast hodographs do not fit the
  damaging wind prototype, so long-lived bowing segments will
  probably not be a likely scenario. A few small hail reports may
  be possible if the model soundings are accurate in their
  depiction of deep layer CAPE above the -10 to -20C layer.

* Post cold front winds: There is a decent probability that a Wind
  Advisory will be necessary for the Palouse, West Plains and
  portions of the Columbia Basin Saturday morning. Strong deep
  layer cold advection, 850mb winds of 40-50kts, and a tight
  surface pressure gradient suggest the potential for wind gusts
  of 40-45 mph over a good portion of east central and southeast
  Washington Saturday morning. Gradients are progged to relax a
  bit during the day, but gusty conditions will likely persist
  well into the afternoon hours on Saturday. /GKoch

Sunday through Thursday: The weather pattern will remain
progressive for much of next week. Initially, the later half of
the weekend will turn quieter and more stable as a flat ridge sets
up over the Inland Northwest. Pacific moisture will stream over
top of the ridge. This coupled with weak isentropic lift will give
way to plenty of cloud cover and the potential of light
precipitation across the higher terrain near the Canadian border.
Temperatures will remain mild and lighter winds anticipated, even
into Monday as the upper ridge amplifies and warm air funnels into
the region from the south. By Monday night and into Tuesday, a
vigorous cold front will sweep inland and bring the threat of
convection. Instability indices look too weak to introduce the
possibility of thunder, but it will need to be monitored. Winds
will turn breezy and gusty by Tuesday in the wake of the front
with gusts of up to near 35 mph. After this feature exits to the
east, on Wednesday another weather disturbance coupled with a
surface occluded front slides in from the northwest and brings
another round of showers. The main brunt will be mountains from
the Cascades to the Panhandle mountains. May see more breezy winds
across the Columbia Basin by Wednesday afternoon and evening. With
the passage of each of the weather disturbances, the storm track
slowly sags south and the jet stream creeps further into
Washington and north Idaho. By Thursday, another weather impulse
ripples through the region in addition to cold air aloft.
Instability values lower, leading to the potential for more
thunder Thursday afternoon and early evening. Also with each
passing impulse, temperatures cool slightly and snow levels lower
a bit, giving way to a better chance of mountain snow.
Temperatures which start above normal by this weekend, gradually
cool to more typically readings for late March. /rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Valley fog will impact ceilings and visibilities around
Spokane, Coeur D`Alene, Sandpoint, Bonners Ferry, and Colville
through 16z this morning. A vigorous early spring cold front will
collide with an unseasonbly warm and moist air mass tonight
bringing widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms to north
Idaho and the eastern third of Washington. Strong winds will also
develop behind the cold front after 07-09z and persist into Sunday
afternoon. Gusts of 30-35kts will be possible in Spokane, Coeur
D`Alene, Pullman, and Lewiston near the end of the TAF period
09-12z. /GKoch



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        69  47  60  39  59  40 /   0  70  40   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  69  45  59  38  59  38 /  10  80  70   0  10  10
Pullman        71  46  58  40  58  41 /  10  90  40   0  10  10
Lewiston       75  51  64  41  63  42 /  10  90  20   0   0  10
Colville       70  44  63  39  60  39 /  10  50  50   0  10  10
Sandpoint      66  45  56  38  57  36 /  10  80  80   0  10  10
Kellogg        68  42  53  36  56  38 /  10  90  90   0  10  10
Moses Lake     74  48  66  40  65  39 /   0  20  10   0   0  10
Wenatchee      73  48  65  43  65  44 /   0  10  10   0  10  10
Omak           70  44  66  39  64  39 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 271351
AFDOTX

AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
651 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Record warm temperatures will be possible today over much of the
Inland Northwest. A fast moving cold front will arrive tonight
bringing widespread showers, gusty winds, and the potential for
thunderstorms to southeast Washington and portions of the Idaho
Panhanle. Saturday will be quite windy with gusts of 40 mph
possible over Palouse, West Plains, and Upper Columbia Basin. The
weather Sunday and Monday should be mild and relatively dry.
Another fast moving front on Tuesday will bring more showers and
wind.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today: Unseasonably warm temperatures will be the main story for
today. A highly amplified upper level ridge/trough pattern will
increase deep southerly flow over the Pacific Northwest this
afternoon. Warm mid-level temperatures will be advected into the
region. The 850mb thermal ridge will extend from central Oregon
into the Idaho Panhandle during the afternoon with temperatures
as warm as 14-16C over southeast Washington and the southern
Panhandle. In May or June, 850mb temperatures of 14-16C would
yield highs in the low 80s, but the potential for some cloudiness
and the relatively low March sun angle suggest a more
conservative mid 70s for the L-C Valley is prudent. The mild
southerly flow will also destabilize the atmosphere ahead of
tonight`s cold front. At this time, it appears that there will
enough convective inhibition (mid-level capping) to impede showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon. The weakest capping according to
the GFS and NAM will be over northeast Oregon, southeast
Washington, and the southern/central Panhandle. A 20 percent
chance for showers and thunderstorms has been introduced after 2PM
followed by much higher chances this evening with the arrival of
strong frontal forcing.

Tonight and Saturday: A fast moving frontal system will collide
with our anomalously warm/moist air mass this evening. Widespread
showers will blossom along the frontal system by mid evening over
the eastern third of Washington and spread quickly into the Idaho
Panhandle by midnight.

* Thunderstorm potential: The front will probably not arrive early
  enough in the afternoon to tap into peak heating and maximum
  instability. However, given the tight thermal packing expected
  with the front, steep mid-level lapse rates, and abundance of
  mid/low level moisture, there should be a decent chance for
  thunderstorms. The increasing southwest surface pressure
  gradient combined with the potential for downdraft winds
  suggests a small threat for strong wind gusts this evening with
  thunderstorms. Cold advection and west winds undercutting the
  southwesterlies aloft on forecast hodographs do not fit the
  damaging wind prototype, so long-lived bowing segments will
  probably not be a likely scenario. A few small hail reports may
  be possible if the model soundings are accurate in their
  depiction of deep layer CAPE above the -10 to -20C layer.

* Post cold front winds: There is a decent probability that a Wind
  Advisory will be necessary for the Palouse, West Plains and
  portions of the Columbia Basin Saturday morning. Strong deep
  layer cold advection, 850mb winds of 40-50kts, and a tight
  surface pressure gradient suggest the potential for wind gusts
  of 40-45 mph over a good portion of east central and southeast
  Washington Saturday morning. Gradients are progged to relax a
  bit during the day, but gusty conditions will likely persist
  well into the afternoon hours on Saturday. /GKoch

Sunday through Thursday: The weather pattern will remain
progressive for much of next week. Initially, the later half of
the weekend will turn quieter and more stable as a flat ridge sets
up over the Inland Northwest. Pacific moisture will stream over
top of the ridge. This coupled with weak isentropic lift will give
way to plenty of cloud cover and the potential of light
precipitation across the higher terrain near the Canadian border.
Temperatures will remain mild and lighter winds anticipated, even
into Monday as the upper ridge amplifies and warm air funnels into
the region from the south. By Monday night and into Tuesday, a
vigorous cold front will sweep inland and bring the threat of
convection. Instability indices look too weak to introduce the
possibility of thunder, but it will need to be monitored. Winds
will turn breezy and gusty by Tuesday in the wake of the front
with gusts of up to near 35 mph. After this feature exits to the
east, on Wednesday another weather disturbance coupled with a
surface occluded front slides in from the northwest and brings
another round of showers. The main brunt will be mountains from
the Cascades to the Panhandle mountains. May see more breezy winds
across the Columbia Basin by Wednesday afternoon and evening. With
the passage of each of the weather disturbances, the storm track
slowly sags south and the jet stream creeps further into
Washington and north Idaho. By Thursday, another weather impulse
ripples through the region in addition to cold air aloft.
Instability values lower, leading to the potential for more
thunder Thursday afternoon and early evening. Also with each
passing impulse, temperatures cool slightly and snow levels lower
a bit, giving way to a better chance of mountain snow.
Temperatures which start above normal by this weekend, gradually
cool to more typically readings for late March. /rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Valley fog will impact ceilings and visibilities around
Spokane, Coeur D`Alene, Sandpoint, Bonners Ferry, and Colville
through 16z this morning. A vigorous early spring cold front will
collide with an unseasonbly warm and moist air mass tonight
bringing widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms to north
Idaho and the eastern third of Washington. Strong winds will also
develop behind the cold front after 07-09z and persist into Sunday
afternoon. Gusts of 30-35kts will be possible in Spokane, Coeur
D`Alene, Pullman, and Lewiston near the end of the TAF period
09-12z. /GKoch



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        69  47  60  39  59  40 /   0  70  40   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  69  45  59  38  59  38 /  10  80  70   0  10  10
Pullman        71  46  58  40  58  41 /  10  90  40   0  10  10
Lewiston       75  51  64  41  63  42 /  10  90  20   0   0  10
Colville       70  44  63  39  60  39 /  10  50  50   0  10  10
Sandpoint      66  45  56  38  57  36 /  10  80  80   0  10  10
Kellogg        68  42  53  36  56  38 /  10  90  90   0  10  10
Moses Lake     74  48  66  40  65  39 /   0  20  10   0   0  10
Wenatchee      73  48  65  43  65  44 /   0  10  10   0  10  10
Omak           70  44  66  39  64  39 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 271351
AFDOTX

AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
651 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Record warm temperatures will be possible today over much of the
Inland Northwest. A fast moving cold front will arrive tonight
bringing widespread showers, gusty winds, and the potential for
thunderstorms to southeast Washington and portions of the Idaho
Panhanle. Saturday will be quite windy with gusts of 40 mph
possible over Palouse, West Plains, and Upper Columbia Basin. The
weather Sunday and Monday should be mild and relatively dry.
Another fast moving front on Tuesday will bring more showers and
wind.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today: Unseasonably warm temperatures will be the main story for
today. A highly amplified upper level ridge/trough pattern will
increase deep southerly flow over the Pacific Northwest this
afternoon. Warm mid-level temperatures will be advected into the
region. The 850mb thermal ridge will extend from central Oregon
into the Idaho Panhandle during the afternoon with temperatures
as warm as 14-16C over southeast Washington and the southern
Panhandle. In May or June, 850mb temperatures of 14-16C would
yield highs in the low 80s, but the potential for some cloudiness
and the relatively low March sun angle suggest a more
conservative mid 70s for the L-C Valley is prudent. The mild
southerly flow will also destabilize the atmosphere ahead of
tonight`s cold front. At this time, it appears that there will
enough convective inhibition (mid-level capping) to impede showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon. The weakest capping according to
the GFS and NAM will be over northeast Oregon, southeast
Washington, and the southern/central Panhandle. A 20 percent
chance for showers and thunderstorms has been introduced after 2PM
followed by much higher chances this evening with the arrival of
strong frontal forcing.

Tonight and Saturday: A fast moving frontal system will collide
with our anomalously warm/moist air mass this evening. Widespread
showers will blossom along the frontal system by mid evening over
the eastern third of Washington and spread quickly into the Idaho
Panhandle by midnight.

* Thunderstorm potential: The front will probably not arrive early
  enough in the afternoon to tap into peak heating and maximum
  instability. However, given the tight thermal packing expected
  with the front, steep mid-level lapse rates, and abundance of
  mid/low level moisture, there should be a decent chance for
  thunderstorms. The increasing southwest surface pressure
  gradient combined with the potential for downdraft winds
  suggests a small threat for strong wind gusts this evening with
  thunderstorms. Cold advection and west winds undercutting the
  southwesterlies aloft on forecast hodographs do not fit the
  damaging wind prototype, so long-lived bowing segments will
  probably not be a likely scenario. A few small hail reports may
  be possible if the model soundings are accurate in their
  depiction of deep layer CAPE above the -10 to -20C layer.

* Post cold front winds: There is a decent probability that a Wind
  Advisory will be necessary for the Palouse, West Plains and
  portions of the Columbia Basin Saturday morning. Strong deep
  layer cold advection, 850mb winds of 40-50kts, and a tight
  surface pressure gradient suggest the potential for wind gusts
  of 40-45 mph over a good portion of east central and southeast
  Washington Saturday morning. Gradients are progged to relax a
  bit during the day, but gusty conditions will likely persist
  well into the afternoon hours on Saturday. /GKoch

Sunday through Thursday: The weather pattern will remain
progressive for much of next week. Initially, the later half of
the weekend will turn quieter and more stable as a flat ridge sets
up over the Inland Northwest. Pacific moisture will stream over
top of the ridge. This coupled with weak isentropic lift will give
way to plenty of cloud cover and the potential of light
precipitation across the higher terrain near the Canadian border.
Temperatures will remain mild and lighter winds anticipated, even
into Monday as the upper ridge amplifies and warm air funnels into
the region from the south. By Monday night and into Tuesday, a
vigorous cold front will sweep inland and bring the threat of
convection. Instability indices look too weak to introduce the
possibility of thunder, but it will need to be monitored. Winds
will turn breezy and gusty by Tuesday in the wake of the front
with gusts of up to near 35 mph. After this feature exits to the
east, on Wednesday another weather disturbance coupled with a
surface occluded front slides in from the northwest and brings
another round of showers. The main brunt will be mountains from
the Cascades to the Panhandle mountains. May see more breezy winds
across the Columbia Basin by Wednesday afternoon and evening. With
the passage of each of the weather disturbances, the storm track
slowly sags south and the jet stream creeps further into
Washington and north Idaho. By Thursday, another weather impulse
ripples through the region in addition to cold air aloft.
Instability values lower, leading to the potential for more
thunder Thursday afternoon and early evening. Also with each
passing impulse, temperatures cool slightly and snow levels lower
a bit, giving way to a better chance of mountain snow.
Temperatures which start above normal by this weekend, gradually
cool to more typically readings for late March. /rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Valley fog will impact ceilings and visibilities around
Spokane, Coeur D`Alene, Sandpoint, Bonners Ferry, and Colville
through 16z this morning. A vigorous early spring cold front will
collide with an unseasonbly warm and moist air mass tonight
bringing widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms to north
Idaho and the eastern third of Washington. Strong winds will also
develop behind the cold front after 07-09z and persist into Sunday
afternoon. Gusts of 30-35kts will be possible in Spokane, Coeur
D`Alene, Pullman, and Lewiston near the end of the TAF period
09-12z. /GKoch



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        69  47  60  39  59  40 /   0  70  40   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  69  45  59  38  59  38 /  10  80  70   0  10  10
Pullman        71  46  58  40  58  41 /  10  90  40   0  10  10
Lewiston       75  51  64  41  63  42 /  10  90  20   0   0  10
Colville       70  44  63  39  60  39 /  10  50  50   0  10  10
Sandpoint      66  45  56  38  57  36 /  10  80  80   0  10  10
Kellogg        68  42  53  36  56  38 /  10  90  90   0  10  10
Moses Lake     74  48  66  40  65  39 /   0  20  10   0   0  10
Wenatchee      73  48  65  43  65  44 /   0  10  10   0  10  10
Omak           70  44  66  39  64  39 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS66 KOTX 271351
AFDOTX

AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
651 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Record warm temperatures will be possible today over much of the
Inland Northwest. A fast moving cold front will arrive tonight
bringing widespread showers, gusty winds, and the potential for
thunderstorms to southeast Washington and portions of the Idaho
Panhanle. Saturday will be quite windy with gusts of 40 mph
possible over Palouse, West Plains, and Upper Columbia Basin. The
weather Sunday and Monday should be mild and relatively dry.
Another fast moving front on Tuesday will bring more showers and
wind.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today: Unseasonably warm temperatures will be the main story for
today. A highly amplified upper level ridge/trough pattern will
increase deep southerly flow over the Pacific Northwest this
afternoon. Warm mid-level temperatures will be advected into the
region. The 850mb thermal ridge will extend from central Oregon
into the Idaho Panhandle during the afternoon with temperatures
as warm as 14-16C over southeast Washington and the southern
Panhandle. In May or June, 850mb temperatures of 14-16C would
yield highs in the low 80s, but the potential for some cloudiness
and the relatively low March sun angle suggest a more
conservative mid 70s for the L-C Valley is prudent. The mild
southerly flow will also destabilize the atmosphere ahead of
tonight`s cold front. At this time, it appears that there will
enough convective inhibition (mid-level capping) to impede showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon. The weakest capping according to
the GFS and NAM will be over northeast Oregon, southeast
Washington, and the southern/central Panhandle. A 20 percent
chance for showers and thunderstorms has been introduced after 2PM
followed by much higher chances this evening with the arrival of
strong frontal forcing.

Tonight and Saturday: A fast moving frontal system will collide
with our anomalously warm/moist air mass this evening. Widespread
showers will blossom along the frontal system by mid evening over
the eastern third of Washington and spread quickly into the Idaho
Panhandle by midnight.

* Thunderstorm potential: The front will probably not arrive early
  enough in the afternoon to tap into peak heating and maximum
  instability. However, given the tight thermal packing expected
  with the front, steep mid-level lapse rates, and abundance of
  mid/low level moisture, there should be a decent chance for
  thunderstorms. The increasing southwest surface pressure
  gradient combined with the potential for downdraft winds
  suggests a small threat for strong wind gusts this evening with
  thunderstorms. Cold advection and west winds undercutting the
  southwesterlies aloft on forecast hodographs do not fit the
  damaging wind prototype, so long-lived bowing segments will
  probably not be a likely scenario. A few small hail reports may
  be possible if the model soundings are accurate in their
  depiction of deep layer CAPE above the -10 to -20C layer.

* Post cold front winds: There is a decent probability that a Wind
  Advisory will be necessary for the Palouse, West Plains and
  portions of the Columbia Basin Saturday morning. Strong deep
  layer cold advection, 850mb winds of 40-50kts, and a tight
  surface pressure gradient suggest the potential for wind gusts
  of 40-45 mph over a good portion of east central and southeast
  Washington Saturday morning. Gradients are progged to relax a
  bit during the day, but gusty conditions will likely persist
  well into the afternoon hours on Saturday. /GKoch

Sunday through Thursday: The weather pattern will remain
progressive for much of next week. Initially, the later half of
the weekend will turn quieter and more stable as a flat ridge sets
up over the Inland Northwest. Pacific moisture will stream over
top of the ridge. This coupled with weak isentropic lift will give
way to plenty of cloud cover and the potential of light
precipitation across the higher terrain near the Canadian border.
Temperatures will remain mild and lighter winds anticipated, even
into Monday as the upper ridge amplifies and warm air funnels into
the region from the south. By Monday night and into Tuesday, a
vigorous cold front will sweep inland and bring the threat of
convection. Instability indices look too weak to introduce the
possibility of thunder, but it will need to be monitored. Winds
will turn breezy and gusty by Tuesday in the wake of the front
with gusts of up to near 35 mph. After this feature exits to the
east, on Wednesday another weather disturbance coupled with a
surface occluded front slides in from the northwest and brings
another round of showers. The main brunt will be mountains from
the Cascades to the Panhandle mountains. May see more breezy winds
across the Columbia Basin by Wednesday afternoon and evening. With
the passage of each of the weather disturbances, the storm track
slowly sags south and the jet stream creeps further into
Washington and north Idaho. By Thursday, another weather impulse
ripples through the region in addition to cold air aloft.
Instability values lower, leading to the potential for more
thunder Thursday afternoon and early evening. Also with each
passing impulse, temperatures cool slightly and snow levels lower
a bit, giving way to a better chance of mountain snow.
Temperatures which start above normal by this weekend, gradually
cool to more typically readings for late March. /rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Valley fog will impact ceilings and visibilities around
Spokane, Coeur D`Alene, Sandpoint, Bonners Ferry, and Colville
through 16z this morning. A vigorous early spring cold front will
collide with an unseasonbly warm and moist air mass tonight
bringing widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms to north
Idaho and the eastern third of Washington. Strong winds will also
develop behind the cold front after 07-09z and persist into Sunday
afternoon. Gusts of 30-35kts will be possible in Spokane, Coeur
D`Alene, Pullman, and Lewiston near the end of the TAF period
09-12z. /GKoch



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        69  47  60  39  59  40 /   0  70  40   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  69  45  59  38  59  38 /  10  80  70   0  10  10
Pullman        71  46  58  40  58  41 /  10  90  40   0  10  10
Lewiston       75  51  64  41  63  42 /  10  90  20   0   0  10
Colville       70  44  63  39  60  39 /  10  50  50   0  10  10
Sandpoint      66  45  56  38  57  36 /  10  80  80   0  10  10
Kellogg        68  42  53  36  56  38 /  10  90  90   0  10  10
Moses Lake     74  48  66  40  65  39 /   0  20  10   0   0  10
Wenatchee      73  48  65  43  65  44 /   0  10  10   0  10  10
Omak           70  44  66  39  64  39 /   0  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





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